20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals ML -180

I don't normally take favorites on the money line of -3.5 or higher, but I'm confident the Bengals are going to win this game.  I missed the early number on the Bengals and I could see this going higher.  So I'm willing to lay the money line as of Monday night knowing that it is likely to go higher.

The spot couldn't be worse for the Dolphins.  They are coming off an upset win over the Buffalo Bills in one of the most misleading box scores you will ever see.  They were outgained 212 to 497 by the Bills but somehow won.  They had just 39 plays on offense compared to 90 plays for Buffalo.  Their defense was on the field for over 40 of the 60 minutes.  That's a Buffalo team that was without 14 starters at one point in that game as well.

It's safe to say this Miami defense is gassed, and there will be a carryover effect here on this short week as they travel to face the Bengals.  There may not be a worse spot for any team the rest of the season in terms of rest.  Now the Dolphins have to try and stop one of the best offenses in the NFL in the Cincinnati Bengals on this short week.

The Dolphins are not sitting well in the injury department, either.  QB Tagovailoa has a back injury, WR Waddle has a groin injury, WR Wilson has a rib injury, T Little has a finger injury and T Armstead has a toe injury and all five are questionable on offense.  DT Davis has a knee injury, DT Sieler has a hand injury, CB Kohou has an ankle injury, S Jones has a chest injury, CB Howard has a groin injury, and S Holland has a neck injury and all are questionable.  This is quickly becoming one of the worst injury situations in the NFL.

So it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Dolphins after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS to start the season, and a great time to 'buy low' on the Bengals, who are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS but could easily be 3-0 instead.  In Week 1 they lost in OT to the Steelers despite outgaining them by 165 yards.  They lost due to committing five turnovers.  They lost 17-20 at Dallas in Week 2, but that's a Dallas team that is better than they get credit for even without Dak Prescott.

Last week, the Bengals took out their frustration with a 27-12 road win over the New York Jets.  Joe Burrow played with the fire that he played with when he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl.  And that spark will still be there this week as their backs are against the wall after this 1-2 start.  And they'll have no problem getting up for the unbeaten Dolphins, who are in a letdown spot off a win against their biggest division rivals in the Bills.  The Dolphins are feeling 'fat and happy' right now and won't be nearly as motivated as they were to beat Buffalo.

While Burrow gets a lot of the credit, it's the defense that was really responsible for the run to the Super Bowl last year.  This is arguably the most underrated defense in the NFL.  They held the Raiders to 19 points, the Titans to 16 points, the Chiefs to 24 points and the Rams to 23 points in their four playoff games last year.  They have picked up where they left off, allowing 18.3 points, 310.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play through three games this season.

The Bengals are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Home teams have such an advantage already on these Thursday night games due to the short week, but this advantage is even more in Cincinnati's favor now with Miami's defense defending 90 plays against the Bills last week.  The Bengals had a stress-free blowout win over the Jets and are the fresher team.  Take the Bengals on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Utah State/BYU ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 62

The Utah State Aggies and BYU Cougars play in a rivalry game Thursday night in Provo.  I look for points to be at a premium in this rivalry game.  BYU will get their points, but I don't think Utah State will do their part to score enough to get to 62 combined points in this one.

Utah State is way down compared to last season offensively.  The Aggies lost all of their top playmakers from last year's team.  It hasn't gone nearly as smoothly for QB Logan Bonner as it did last year.  The Aggies are only averaging 15.5 points, 345.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  This despite playing UConn, FCS Weber State and UNLV, which are three terrible defenses.  But the Aggies have held their own defensively, allowing just 5.6 yards per play against teams that average 5.9 yards per play.

Like I said, BYU will get their points, but I expect them to shut down Utah State.  The Cougars have a ton of talent on defense with all 11 starters back from last year.  They are holding teams to just 321.8 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play, holding teams 66 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play below their season averages to this point.

These teams met last year with BYU winning 34-20 for just 54 combined points and a 65.5-point total.  That was with an elite Utah State offense last year.  They have only adjusted this total down 3.5 points from last year, and that's not enough for how down Utah State's offense is.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Aggies last five games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Aggies last six non-conference games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Cougars last eight Thursday games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Aggies last six games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Aggies last seven games following an ATS loss.  These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Red Sox OVER 9

After combining for 22 runs in Game 1 of this series, the Orioles and Red Sox came back for 22 more runs in Game 2 last night.  It should be more of the same in Game 3 with both bullpens absolutely taxed right now, and both lineups seeing the ball well.

Rich Hill is 7-7 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.353 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 2-4 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.543 WHIP in 10 home starts.  Hill allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings to the Orioles in his lone home start against them this season.

Dean Kremer has good numbers this season, but he has not been able to figure out Boston.  Kremer has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-3 with a 7.23 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in four career starts against them.

The OVER is 5-0 in Red Sox last five games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 4-0 in Orioles last four games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in Red Sox last six games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Red SOx last four home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Yankees/Blue Jays AL East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 14 games overall that have gone at least 9 innings, coming up clutch down the stretch to clinch the AL East.  They have combined with their opponents for 8 runs or more in 11 of those 14 games, making for an 11-3 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 7.5-run total.

No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 22 of their last 29 games overall.  These are arguably the two most potent offenses in all of baseball right now, and we're getting a total of only 7.5 runs, which is a gift from oddsmakers.

The Yankees could cover this total on their own off Mitch White, sho is 0-6 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 0-2 with an 11.45 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in his last three.  Those have come against the Rays, Orioles and Cubs, so it's not like he is facing elite competition.

Gerrit Cole has struggled of late with a 6.35 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 7 homers in 17 innings.  Cole has not enjoyed facing the Blue Jays, going 0-2 with a 5.91 ERA in his last four starts against them while allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 21 1/3 innings.

The OVER is 27-8-1 in Yankees last 36 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Tigers -122

The Detroit Tigers are coming on strong to finish the season.  They have gone 6-1 in their last seven games overall.  They should stay hot and pick up another win against the Kansas City Royals tonight due to their massive advantage on the mound.

Matt Manning is 2-3 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Manning has been at his best at home, going 1-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in seven home starts.  He has never lost to the Royals, going 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA in three career starts against them.

Daniel Lynch is 4-11 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.578 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.10 ERA and 1.894 WHIP in his last three.  Lynch is also 1-2 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in five career starts against the Tigers.  He has allowed 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 18 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Detroit in 2022.

Kansas City is 9-28 vs. starting pitchers that allow 0.5 or fewer homers per start this season.  The Royals are 16-35 in their last 51 road games.  Bet the Tigers Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -1.5 (+110)

The New York Mets are coming up clutch down the stretch in trying to win the NL East.  They have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games overall with seven wins by two runs or more.  I'm shocked we are getting them as underdogs tonight on the Run Line against the lowly Miami Marlins.

The Mets have the advantage on the mound tonight with Carlos Carrasco over Pablo Lopez, and they certainly have the advantage at the plate scoring 4.8 runs per game compared to 3.6 for the Marlins this season.  Carrasco is 9-2 with a 3.21 ERA in 15 home starts this season.  Carrasco has never lost to the Marlins, going 5-0 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in nine career starts against them.

Pablo Lopez has decent numbers this season at 9-10 with a 3.93 ERA in 30 starts.  However, Lopez has never been able to figure out the Mets.  He is 3-5 with a 6.53 ERA and 1.627 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  Lopez has allowed a whopping 14 earned runs and 25 base runners in only 6 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Mets this season alone.  

The Marlins are 3-25 as a dog of +150 or more this season and losing by 2.9 runs per game in this spot.  This one will be over with early folks.  Bet the Mets on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Baltimore Orioles +115

The Baltimore Orioles have been the most profitable team to bet in baseball this season.  They continue to fight to make the postseason here down the stretch as they are just 3.5 games behind the Mariners with an outside chance of getting in.  

The Boston Red Sox have packed it in already and were just officially eliminated.  The Red Sox are 0-6 in their last six games overall and just gave up 14 runs to the Orioles last night.  They could care less about winning this game or any game the rest of the way, so they have no business being favored.

Kyle Bradish is one of the most talented young starters in baseball.  Bradish has been great of late with a 1.77 ERA and 0.639 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 4 earned runs and 13 base runners in 20 1-3 innings.  Bradish held the Red Sox to just one earned run in 7 innings in his last start against them on September 11th.

The Orioles are 5-0 (+7.2 Units) in Bradish's five road starts vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game this season.  Baltimore is 6-1 in its last seven road games vs. a team with a losing record.  We'll gladly back the more motivated team as an underdog tonight.  Take the Orioles Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 7.5

The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 13 games overall that have gone at least 9 innings, coming up clutch down the stretch as they try and clinch the AL East.  They have combined with their opponents for 8 runs or more in 11 of those 13 games, making for an 11-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 7.5-run total.

No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 22 of their last 28 games overall.  These are arguably the two most potent offenses in all of baseball right now, and we're getting a total of only 7.5 runs, which is a gift from oddsmakers.

Jose Berrios has posted a 5.27 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  He just gave up 6 earned runs in 2 innings to the Rays in his last start.  Berrios is 3-3 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in nine career starts against the Yankees.  James Taillon is no better than an average pitcher for the Yankees with a 3.90 ERA in 30 starts, including a 4.42 ERA in 14 road starts this season.

The OVER Is 9-1 in Taillon's last 10 road starts with a total set of 7.5 to 8.5 runs.  The OVER is 10-3 in Yankees last 13 games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in Yankees last eight games overall.  The OVER is 7-3-1 in Blue Jays last 11 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Rays +136

This is the perfect spot to fade the Cleveland Guardians, who are the hottest team in baseball.  They just clinched the AL Central with their win over the Texas Rangers on Sunday.  This is now a massive letdown spot for them, and I question their motivation the rest of the regular season.  They are probably fade material the rest of the way, especially tonight after just clinching.

The Rays still have something to play for as they are trying to clinch a wild card spot.  I know they will show up tonight, and I'll gladly back the underrated Corey Kluber as an underdog.  Kluber is 10-9 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 29 starts this season.

Kluber has never lost to the Guardians, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in two career starts against his former team.  You know he gets extra motivated when he faces his former squad, and he will bring his best stuff tonight.  Shane Bieber has great numbers, but don't be surprised if he is on a pitch count as the Guardians play it safe with him heading into the postseason.

Amazingly, Tampa Bay is 13-1 in road games with a total set of 7 or less this season.  It is winning by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  The Rays do well when a pitcher's duel is expected, which is certainly the case in this contest.  Tampa Bay is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings, including 5-1 in the last six meetings in Cleveland.  Roll with the Rays Tuesday.

15* Cowboys/Giants ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +1

The New York Giants are a fraudulent 2-0.  They had to come back from a 13-0 deficit in the second half to beat the Titans 21-20 in Week 1.  The Titans went on to lose 41-7 to the Bills in Week 2, so that win looks worse now.

Last week, the Giants beat the Panthers 19-16 despite getting outgained 3.8 yards per play to 5.1 yards per play.  They didn't deserve to win that game, and it's clear the Panthers aren't very good this season.  I think the luck runs out for the Giants this week.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Giants heading into this game.  They could be without their top two pass rushers and their best interior DL in Leonard Williams, who is doubtful.  They have cluster injuries at cornerback on defense, and WR Kedarius Toney is doubtful.  The Giants are lacking explosive plays as they have just two completions of over 20 yards on offense this season.

The Dallas Cowboys lost to the Bucs in Week 1, which isn't a bad loss.  They came back and pulled the 20-17 upset of the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2.  They outgained the Bengals 337 to 254 in total yards and 5.7 to 3.8 yards per play.  It was a dominant effort, and I just think the Cowboys are the better team even without Dak Prescott.

Cooper Rush went 19-of-31 passing for 235 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals.  This Cowboys defense is absolutely loaded, and that has shown against Tom Brady and Joe Burrow the first two weeks.  They have held those two teams to an average of just 300.5 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

The Cowboys get great news in the injury department this week.  They get WR Michael Gallup back from injury, and two of their best defenders in LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs are both probable as well.  Their defense is by far the best unit on the field in this game, and I think their offense is just as good as the Giants if not better.

The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Dallas is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games vs. NFC East opponents, including 6-0 ATS in the last six.  The Giants are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.  The Giants are frauds and will be exposed this week as their luck runs out against a better team in Dallas.  Roll with the Cowboys Monday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 7.5

The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall that have gone at least 9 innings, coming up clutch down the stretch as they try and clinch the AL East.  They have combined with their opponents for 8 runs or more in 11 of those 12 games, making for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 7.5-run total.

No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 22 of their last 27 games overall.  These are arguably the two most potent offenses in all of baseball right now, and we're getting a total of only 7.5 runs, which is a gift from oddsmakers.

Kevin Gausman has been at his worst at home, going 4-7 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 14 home starts this season.  Luis Severino is 6-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in 17 starts this season, but the Blue Jays will get to him tonight.  Severino has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 2/3 innings for a 7.45 ERA in his last two starts against the Blue Jays this season.

The OVER is 12-3 in Gausman's last 15 home starts with a total set of 7 to 7.5 runs.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in Yankees last seven games overall.  The OVER is 7-2-1 in Blue Jays last 10 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Red Sox/Yankees ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

There is expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to left tonight at Yankee Stadium, which is going to help us cash this OVER 8 ticket.  I don't think we need the extra help as these are two of the better offenses in the American League, especially the Yankees.

The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall, coming up clutch down the stretch as they try and clinch the AL East.  They have combined with their opponents for 8 runs or more in 11 of their last 12 games overall, making for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 8-run total.

The Yankees are more than capable of covering this total on their own.  They will get to Brayan Bello, who is 2-5 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in four road starts.  

The Red Sox have scored 4 runs or more in five of their last six games overall.  Nestor Cortes has posted a 4.85 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in three career starts against Boston.  The Red Sox and Yankees have combined for 8 runs or more in each of their last five meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Packers/Bucs NFC ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +2

This is more of a play against the Bucs than it is a play on Green Bay.  The Bucs are very fortunate to be 2-0 SU & ATS this season with all their injuries.  And it has gotten worse this week.  QB Tom Brady and G Shaq Mason are the only two healthy players for the Bucs on offense, and even Brady has a finger issue.  He was in obvious discomfort during portions of practice available to the media this week.

The Bucs are expected to be without their top two receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.  Julio Jones, Scotty Miller, Russell Gage and Breshad Perriman are also banged up and questionable.  They signed Cole Beasley off the street, so you know they are having WR problems.  They are without two starting offensive linemen in C Jensen and T Wells.  They will also likely be without T Donovan Smith, who is doubtful.

It's no wonder Tom Brady has looked pedestrian.  The Bucs are only averaging 19.5 points, 303.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play this season.  They should have lost to the Saints last week, who gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers, including 4 in a 9-play span in the 2nd half.  The Packers won't let them off the hook this week.

Green Bay got their running game going last week in a 27-10 win over Chicago.  They were also healthier at receiver and along the offensive line, and they enter this week very healthy.  They rushed for 203 yards against the Bears, and their ground game is as big of a strength as I can ever remember.  That's dangerous when you have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

The Bucs have been susceptible to the run this season, allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  The Saints rushed for over 100 yards and over 5.0 yards per carry against them last week, and that was without Alvin Kamara, who was out with an injury.  They signed run stuffer Akiem Hicks in the offseason, but he was injured against the Saints and is out at least 4 weeks.

The Packers are going to have much more success against this Tampa Bay defense than the Cowboys and Saints did.  And I expect Green Bay to shut down the Bucs as this is one of the better defenses the Packers have had in recent memory.  They are giving up just 16.5 points per game through two weeks.

The Packers are playing with double-revenge after losing their last two meetings with the Bucs, including one in the playoffs.  You know they have had this game circled all offseason.  The Packers 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after playing the Chicago Bears.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7

I grabbed the Jaguars at +7 early in the week.  I knew there was a chance Justin Herbert wouldn't play, and I liked them at +7 even if he did play.  Well, Herbert is likely out for this game as the line has been adjusted down from +7 to +3 as of Friday afternoon.  I like the Jaguars at +3 as well if he doesn't play.

Not to mention, the Chargers are also going to be without their top CB in J.C. Jackson, and their best WR in Keenan Allen is questionable with a hamstring injury.  Meanwhile, the injury report could not look better for the Jaguars.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.

The Jaguars outplayed Washington in the opener and should have won, outgaining them 6.2 to 5.8 yards per play.  They showed what they were capable of in Week 2 with a 24-0 victory over the Indianapolis Colts at home.  They outgained the Colts 331 to 218 and 4.9 to 4.5 yards per play.  

This looks like a much improved Jaguars team under first-hear head coach Doug Pedersen through two weeks already.  Pedersen has clearly gotten through to Trevor Lawrence, who looks like a completely different QB in Year 2.  He is completing 68.1% of his passes for 255 yards per game and a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio with 7.1 yards per attempt.  Remember, Pedersen won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles.

I think the spot is a tough one for the Chargers even without the injuries.  They are coming off two huge division games to start the season, including a 24-27 loss at Kansas City, which is their most hated rival and the team they want to beat the most.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Jaguars this week.

Plays against home favorites (LA Chargers) - with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after playing a game where 50 or more points were scored are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -115

The Arizona Diamondbacks have the advantage on the mound today over the San Francisco Giants, who will be going with an opener in Scott Alexander before giving way to their bullpen.  This is a poor Giants bullpen with a 4.04 ERA and 1.375 WHIP on the season.

This is a play on rookie Drey Jameson of the Diamondbacks.  James is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing just 2 earned runs and 11 base runners in 13 innings against the Dodgers and Padres.  Those are two of the best lineups in the National League, so shutting them down is no small feat.  He will certainly shut down this suspect San Francisco lineup, too.

The Giants are 9-26 as a dog of +100 to +150 this season.  San Francisco is 9-25 in its last 34 games following a loss.  Roll with the Diamondbacks Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -134

The Cleveland Guardians will clinch the AL Central with a win on Sunday.  It's safe to say they will be motivated to do just that, and to party tonight knowing they have tomorrow off.  They are so close they can taste it, and no team has been hotter than the Guardians down the stretch, going 15-2 in their last 17 games overall.

I'm not a huge Aaron Civale fan, but he is better than Cole Ragans of the Rangers.  Ragans is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.567 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Civale has owned the Rangers with a 0.75 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in two career starts against them, allowing just one earned run in 12 innings.  The Rangers are 7-19 in their last 26 games overall.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +228

The Chicago White Sox will pack it in the rest the way.  Their shot at making the playoffs came down to their series with the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday through Thursday.  Well, they were swept by the Guardians in three games.  They are now essentially eliminated from postseason contention and it has shown in their play the last couple days after losing in extra innings in Game 1 of that series.

I successfully faded the White Sox in each of the first two games of this series with the Tigers +162 in Game 1 and the Tigers +168 in Game 2.  I'm not about to back off now with the Tigers at an even better price of +228 in Game 3 Sunday.  The White Sox cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number given their mental state, not even with Dylan Cease on the mound.

Tyler Alexander is coming off his best start of the season for the Tigers, pitching 7 shutout innings in an 11-0 victory at Baltimore as a +185 underdog.  Alexander has held the White Sox to 3 runs or fewr in five of his last six starts against them.  The Tigers are 4-1 in their last five games overall with all four wins as underdogs of +155 or higher.  Roll with the Tigers Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Colts AFC No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7 (-130)

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Indianapolis Colts.  This line would have been close to a PK to open the season.  So we are getting basically 7 points of value based off of the results from only two weeks of football.  And even those two weeks are misleading.

The Chiefs are 2-0 with a blowout win over a bad, injury ravaged Arizona team and a 27-24 win over the Chargers.  They did not deserve to beat the Chargers as there was a 99-yard pick 6 that changed that game.  They were outgained 401 to 319 in total yards by the Chargers.

The Colts outgained the Texans 517 to 299 in total yards in Week 1 and settled for a 20-20 tie in a game they should have won according to the stats.  Unfortunately, many of their best players were injured in that OT game and sat out against the Jaguars the next week.  Those injuries were the biggest reason the Colts lost 24-0 and got upset.  That's why this is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on them.

Now the Colts get many of those key players back this week.  They were without their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce last week, which is the biggest reason the offense struggled.  But both are back this week for Matt Ryan.  It looks like DT DeForest Buckner will play this week for the Colts too as he is probable.  Almost all  the key players are probable with the exception of LB Shaq Leonard, who will sit out his third straight game to start the season.

The Colts are now with their backs against the wall looking for their first victory of the season, so you know we are going to get an 'A' effort, especially with a team like the Chiefs coming to town.  And this will be their home opener and a great atmosphere.  After being favored in their first two games, the Colts are back in the role of the underdog where they thrive.  Frank Reich's teams notoriously get off to slow starts to the season before improving rapidly as the season goes on, which is what happened last year even with Carson Wentz at QB.

Look for them to get Jonathan Taylor finally going this week against a Chiefs defense that is susceptible to the run.  He rushed for 1,811 yards and 18 TD Last season.  That will make life much easier on Matt Ryan, who has been in comeback mode for all eight quarters this season, so they haven't been able to establish the run.  The return of Pittman Jr. and Pierce at receiver will also open things up for this offense.

The Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a division game.  Indianapolis is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Colts are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +3

It's time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers.  They have failed to cover the spread in nine consecutive games, but easily could have won and covered each of their first two games.  They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1.  They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play.

It's now or never for the Panthers, who match up well with the Saints.  That was evident last year as they won 26-7 at home as identical 3-point underdogs while outgaining them 383 to 128 in total yards.  They only lost 24-27 as 7-point dogs in New Orleans in the rematch.

The Saints have a lot of problems in the injury department right now.  Alvin Kamara sat out against the Bucs last week and is questionable to return.  They have OL injuries and WR injuries, plus Jameis Winston is playing through a fractured back.  That helps explain why they committed five turnovers against the Bucs last week to give that game away.  It won't get any easier against this Carolina defense this week.

Backing 0-2 teams against 1-1 teams in Week 3 have gone 30-13 ATS since 2010.  There's just always value backing these 0-2 teams with a worse record and their backs against the wall.  Winston is just 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite in his career.  Carolina is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.

Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - a non playoff team from last season that finished with two consecutive wins in the first month of the season are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New England Patriots +3

The New England Patriots are much better than they are getting credit for this season.  They are home underdogs this week after going on the road and handling the Pittsburgh Steelers in what was a much more dominant victory than the 17-14 final would indicate.  The Patriots outgained the Steelres 376 to 243 in total yards and 5.7 to 4.2 yards per play.

The opener for the Patriots was also misleading.  It was closer than the 20-7 final score against the Dolphins would indicate.  The Patriots were only outgained 271 to 307 in total yards and 5.0 to 5.2 yards per play.  That's the same Dolphins team that just came back from 21 points down to upset the Ravens on the road last week.

The biggest reason the Dolphins were able to come back was because the Ravens had injuries and poor play in their secondary.  Those issues have not been solved this week, and Mac Jones and company will pick apart their secondary just as the Dolphins did.  The Dolphins had 547 total yards and 42 points, and Tua Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns.

It's also worth noting the Ravens beat the Jets 24-9 in Week 1, but that was a misleading final score.  The Jets outgained the Ravens 380 to 274 in total yards.  So the Ravens have lost the stats each of thefirst two weeks, and they are in much worse shape than the Patriots injury-wise.  The Patriots clearly have the better defense in this one, and I trust Bill Belichick to come up with the right game plan to slow down Lamar Jackson.

After all, the Ravens have NEVER won a regular season game in New England since they moved to Baltimore.  The Patriots are 12-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 3 points or fewer.  This is the home opener for the Patriots and fans will pack the stands in anticipation of seeing their team for the first time.  They have one of the better home-field advantages in the league.  The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +168

The Chicago White Sox will pack it in the rest the way.  Their shot at making the playoffs came down to their series with the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday through Thursday.  Well, they were swept by the Guardians in three games.  They are now essentially eliminated from postseason contention and it has shown in their play the last couple days after losing in extra innings in Game 1.

I successfully faded the White Sox yesterday and cashed in the Tigers +162 in Game 1 of this series.  I cannot believe the Tigers come back as +168 dogs in Game 2 given the terrible situation for the White Sox.  They simply aren't going to be motivated the rest the way now, and it has sunk in with them just how big of a disappointment they are.

I don't mind the pitching matchup for the Tigers, either.  Drew Hutchison has been at his best on the road, going 1-0 with a 3.52 ERA in six road starts this season.  Davis Martin is 1-4 with a 4.35 ERA in six starts for the White Sox, and 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA in one home start.  Martin has no business being this big of a favorite today.  Roll with the Tigers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +13

Southern Miss is going to be one of the most improved teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles went 3-9 last year, had just 62 scholarship players, lost their Top 5 QB's on offense due to injury and actually started 10 different players at quarterback.  They started 1-9 and kept fighting, winning their final two games despite playing a RB at QB.

That's a sign of the players continuing to play hard for Will Hall.  Now Hall enters his second season with the team, players are familiar with his systems, and they have created a ton of depth due to all the injuries last year.  The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and can only get better health at QB.  Each of the top 10 tacklers are back on defense as well from a unit that was solid last year in giving up 27.9 points and 359 yards per game.

To no surprise to myself, the Golden Eagles are 3-0 ATS this season.  I took them and they covered in a 27-29 loss as 3.5-point underdogs to Liberty in the opener.  That's a Liberty team that nearly upset Wake Forest last week, losing 36-37 as 18-point road underdogs.  Unfortunately, QB Ty Keyes got injured in that opener against Liberty and it's probably the reason they lost.

Keyes sat out against Miami in Week 2, but they still managed to cover in a 30-7 loss at 27-point underdogs.  But Keyes returned last week to lead the Golden Eagles to a 64-10 win over Northwestern State as 34-point favorites.  He went 6-of-9 for 192 yards and three touchdowns before giving way to the backups.  He is a dual threat who has also rushed for 56 yards and a score on 12 carries this season.  Despite the tough schedule, the defense is balling out again holding opponents to 23.0 points per game, 375 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

Tulane is also 3-0 ATS, but this team is the one being overvalued.  That's because the Green Wave are coming off a shocking 17-10 upset win as 13-point dogs at Kansas State.  But K-State is getting terrible QB play this season from Adrian Martinez, and it was a massive lookahead spot for the Wildcats with Oklahoma on deck this week.

Tulane's other two wins came against UMass and Alcorn State.  Those are two of the worst teams in the country in FBS and FCS, respectively.  Remember, the Green Wave went just 2-10 last season.  While they are improved as well, they should not be 13-point favorites over Southern Miss.  Especially with this now being a big letdown spot after the win over Kansas State, and a sandwich spot with Houston on deck next week.

Tulane is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games following an upset win as a road underdog.  The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Southern Miss is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take Southern Miss Saturday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Blue Jays/Rays OVER 6.5

No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 21 of their last 25 games overall.  They will get to Drew Rasmussen and the Tampa Bay Rays tonight for 4-plus runs to do their part.

The Rays have scored 20 runs the past two days and are feeling good at the plate right now.  That's why I think they will get to Toronto's ace Alek Manoah.  The good news is they don't have to get much here as this total has been adjusted too much for Manoah with a total of just 6.5 runs.  Drew Rasmussen has allowed 8 earned runs in 10 innings in his last two starts, one of which came against Toronto on September 14th when he allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings.

The Blue Jays and their opponents have combined for at least 7 runs in eight consecutive games coming in.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 6.5-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona +3

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They added in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback, and this already looks like one of the most improved teams in the country.

I backed Arizona in Week 1 as 6.5-point underdogs at San Diego State.  That was a no sweat winner as Arizona rolled to a 38-20 victory, gaining 461 total yards and holding the Aztecs to 232 yards, outgaining them by 229 yards.  De Laura lived up to the hype, throwing for 299 yards and four touchdowns with one pick in the win.

Arizona came back and lost to Mississippi State at home in Week 2, but then upset #1 Ranked FCS power North Dakota State 31-28 last week.  The Wildcats have been through the gauntlet already with a brutal schedule and have gotten through at 2-1 despite being underdogs in all three games.  Now they are a dog to California and they shouldn't be.

Cal is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country with only eight starters back.  I have not been impressed with them at all as they had a narrow win 20-14 over UNLV and beat Cal Davis 34-13 for their lone victories.  They did cover in a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame last week, but that's the same Notre Dame team that was upset by Marshall the previous week.  The Fighting Irish are clearly down.

This is a bad spot for Cal now after facing a program the caliber of Notre Dame on the road.  Now they return home where they have one of the worst home-field advantages in the country as fans just don't show up to their games.  Keep in mind Arizona's lone win last season came against Cal and they dominated, outgaining them 331 to 122, or by 209 total yards.  They were -3 in turnovers and still won that game.  Arizona is improved this season, while Cal is worse, so it should lead to another upset victory for the Wildcats.

Cal is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games after allowing 7 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +7.5

There have been few spots I can recall that have been as bad as this one for Appalachian State.  I faded them with success with Troy as double-digit underdogs last week because they were in such a bad spot.  And after they beat Troy on a hail mary in a game they should have lost, this is now an even worse spot.

In Week 1 Appalachian State lost a 63-61 shootout to North Carolina.  They pulled the shocking 17-14 upset at Texas A&M in Week 2.  Texas A&M is clearly down this season, though.  And last week they got that hail mary on the final play of the game on the tip drill that was completely bogus.  They are feeling fat and happy right now, but also fatigued given that all three games went to the wire decided by 4 points or less.

You know who is not fatigued? James Madison.  The Dukes are coming off a bye week after winning each of their first two games in blowout fashion.  They won 44-7 over Middle Tennessee State as 4.5-point favorites in the opener, covering by 32.5 points.  They outgained the Blue Raiders by 429 yards.  That win looks even better now after Middle Tennessee went on to cover their next two games by a combined 52.5 points.  The Dukes also beat Norfolk State 63-7 as 41.5-point favorites in Week 2 and covered by 14.5 points.

I think the betting markets are low on James Madison because it's their first season as an FBS school.  But remember, James Madison went 12-2 last season and has made the FCS playoffs eight consecutive seasons, including the championship game three times.  They have been the second-best team in the FCS behind North Dakota State.  Curt Cignetti is in his fourth season here and has continued the winning tradition.

I think the Dukes are already among the best teams in the Sun Belt, which is saying a lot because this is perhaps the most underrated conference in the country.  They will show it this week in what is a great spot for them and a terrible one for Appalachian State.  College Gameday was at Appalachian State last week as well, which only adds to the letdown spot for the Mountaineers.  The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -7

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset a Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 53.0 points per game, 454.0 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 379 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.4 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 260 rushing yards per game and 7.4 per carry.  They are also completing 67.6% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

No question Duke is improved this season, too, but I question their level of competition to this point.  The Blue Devils are 3-0 against Temple, Northwestern and North Carolina A&T.  Temple is one of the worst teams in FBS, Northwestern may be the worst team in the Big Ten after losing to Southern Illinois last week, and NC A&T is one of the worst teams in FCS.  Duke went 3-9 last year, was outscored by 17.0 points per game and outgained by 99 yards per game.

Kansas has faced the much tougher schedule with road games at WVU and Houston already.  Simply put, oddsmakers and the betting public haven't caught up to how good this Kansas team is, and we'll keep taking advantage. Fans are now excited about this team, and they should have the best home-field advantage they have had in years.  

The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS their last six games overall and covering the spread by an average of 21 points per game.  Duke is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games with a total of 63 or higher and losing by 37.0 points per game in this spot.  The Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record and losing by 34.1 points per game.  These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Jayhawks.  Take Kansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kent State +45

Washington and Oklahoma look like two of the best teams in the country.  Well, Kent State only lost by 25 to Washington and by 30 to Oklahoma.  Now they are catching 45 points against another one of the best teams in Georgia.  I think they can cover this number against a Georgia team that won't be that interested in this game.

This is a sandwich spot for Georgia, coming off a win over South Carolina in their SEC opener and having another SEC game on deck against Missouri.  We saw them fail to cover in a similar situation already once this season.  After beating Oregon in their opener, and having their SEC opener on deck against South Carolina, they only beat lowly Samford 33-0 as 53.5-point favorites.

Kent State flexed their muscle with a 63-10 win over Long Island last week.  That was essentially a bye as their starters got to rest in the second half.  That's big because the Golden Flashes won't run out of gas in the second half even if they are getting beat up a little.  They should keep coming and fight for us to cover this inflated number.  I doubt Georgia even scores 45 points in this one.  

Kent State did move the ball on Oklahoma and Washington, averaging 318 yards per game and 4.5 per play against them.  Head coach Sean Lewis is a great offensive mind.  The Golden Flashes averaged 49.8 points per game two seasons ago and 33.0 points per game last year.  While the offense won't be as good, this does appear to be the best defense Lewis has had in his five seasons here.  New defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson has made an impact after spending the past eight seasons at Northern Iowa, including finishing as a Top 15 FCS defense each of the last three years.

Kirby Smart is 1-11 ATS in home games after a cover as a double-digit favorite as the coach of Georgia.  Roll with Kent State Saturday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +157

The Dodgers are going to find it hard to be motivated the rest of the way as they already locked up the top seed in the National League and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  That has shown in their play as they lost two of their last three to the Diamondbacks and should have lost all three after a blown save by Arizona.  They have scored just 6 runs total in their last three games.

The Cardinals still have something to play for as they are trying to wrap up the NL Central.  I think they have a much better chance of winning this game than this line would indicate, especially with Jose Quintana on the mound and their motivational advantage.

Quintana is one of the most underrated starters in baseball, going 5-6 with a 3.04 ERA in 29 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in his last three.  Quintana is 2-2 with a 3.08 ERA in 10 career starts against the Dodgers.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last five starts against the Dodgers, so few starters have had as much success against them as he has.

The Cardinals are 12-2 (+12.5 Units) in Quintana's 14 starts this season after allowing two earned runs or fewer in two consecutive starts coming in.  St. Louis is 37-16 in its last 53 games overall.  The Cardinals are 36-15 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game against southpaw starters in 2022.  Take the Cardinals Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +162

The Chicago White Sox will pack it in the rest the way.  Their shot at making the playoffs came down to their series with the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday through Thursday.  Well, they were swept by the Guardians in three games.  They are now essentially eliminated from postseason contention and it has shown in their play the last couple days after losing in extra innings in Game 1.

Situationally, they cannot be this big of a favorite against the Tigers today.  Let alone with gas can Lucas Giolito going tonight.  Giolito is 10-9 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 4-7 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in 12 home starts.  He is 6-6 with a 4.46 ERA In 18 career starts against Detroit, including 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three while allowing 10 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings.

Eduardo Rodriquez has been much better than Giolito this season.  He is 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA in 14 starts, including 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in six road starts.  Rodriquez has never lost to the White Sox, going 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  Bet the Tigers Friday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Rays OVER 7

No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 20 of their last 24 games overall.  They will get to Jeffrey Springs and the Tampa Bay Rays tonight for 4-plus runs to do their part.

The Rays scored 10 runs yesterday against the Blue Jays and should rake again tonight.  Mitch White is 0-6 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in 16 starts this season, 0-3 with a 6.03 ERA and 1.564 WHIP in eight road starts and 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.167 WHIP in his last three starts.  The Rays are more than capable of covering this 7-run total on their own again tonight.  

The Blue Jays and their opponents have combined for at least 7 runs in seven consecutive games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Astros/Orioles AL ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore +132

The Houston Astros have nothing to play for the rest of the way and I expect it to show down the stretch.  They will consistently be too big of a favorite, just as they were yesterday when they lost as -180 favorites against the Orioles.  Now they come back as -150 favorites today, which is too high again.

The Orioles aren't going to pack it in until they are eliminated.  They have the advantage on the mound tonight, which is why they shouldn't be underdogs.  Dean Kremer is 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 18 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 3.14 ERA in eight home starts.

Kremer beat Jose Urquidy on August 27th in his only previous career start against the Astros.  He went 7 2/3 innings while allowing only one earned run in a 3-1 victory.  Urquidy allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings to take the loss.  Urquidy is 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 11 innings to the A's and Angels.

The Orioles are 13-5 (+11.4 Units) in Kremer's 18 starts this season.  Take the Orioles Friday.

20* Virginia/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 53

The Virginia Cavaliers scored 34.6 points per game last season and averaged 514 yards per game.  They brought back all of their top playmakers at receiver and QB Brennan Armstrong, who threw for 4,449 yards and 31 touchdowns last season, while also rushing for nine scores.

The Cavaliers have had no problem moving the football again this season, but they have committed eight turnovers in two games, and they haven't scored as many points as they should have as a result.  They are scoring just 18.3 points per game.  They had 505 total yards against Richmond and 515 total yards against Old Dominion while being held in check by a good Illinois defense.

But the lack of points along with three consecutive UNDERS for Virginia to start the season has provided some value with the OVER this week.  This total should be much higher than 53.  It's only a matter of time before this offense starts turning those yards into points, and this Virginia defense isn't very good after allowing 31.8 points and 466 yards per game last season.

Syracuse has one of the most improved offenses in the country.  They brought in Virginia offensive coordinator Robert Anae and he is getting the most out of this Syracuse offense.  The Orange are averaging 37.0 points per game and 5.9 yards per play despite playing a tough schedule that has included Louisville and Purdue.

Garrett Shrader is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the country under Anae's watch.  He is completing 66.2% of his passes for 705 yards with an 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 202 yards and three scores.  Sean Tucker rushed for 1,496 yards and 12 TD last season and is one of the best backs in the country.

Armstrong should have a field day throwing the football against this Syracuse defense that was just torched for 424 passing yards by Purdue last week.  I also expect Shrader to put up points at will on this Virginia defense, and for Armstrong to keep pace.  It will be perfect conditions inside the Carrier Dome for a track meet Friday night, too.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (Virgina) - in a game involving two good offensive teams that average 390 to 440 yards per game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game are 27-6 (81.8%) over the last five seasons.  The OVER is 13-5 in Cavaliers last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Diamondbacks/Dodgers UNDER 7

Runs will be very hard to come by in this matchup between two NL Cy Young contenders in Zac Gallen and Julio Urias tonight.  I really like this UNDER as both starters have been dominant this season and against these lineups.

Gallen is 12-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in 28 starts this season.  Few starters have had as much success against the Dodgers as Gallen has.  He is 1-2 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  He has allowed just one earned run in 12 innings in his last two starts against them.

Urias is 17-7 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in 28 starts this season.  Urias has never lost to the Diamondbacks, going 6-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.781 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  He has allowed just 7 earned runs in 39 2/3 innings in those seven starts.

The UNDER is 10-1 in Gallen's last 11 road starts vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs per game in the 2nd half of the season.  The UNDER is 13-1 in Arizona's last 14 games vs. an NL team with a .430 slugging percentage or higher this season.  The UNDER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Steelers/Browns AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -4

The Cleveland Browns should be 2-0 and the Pittsburgh Steelers should be 0-2.  But since both come in at 1-1, this line is closer than it should be.  I've been way more impressed with the Cleveland Browns than the Pittsburgh Steelers to this point.  And I fully expect them to win this game by a touchdown or more Thursday night.

The Browns beat the Panthers 26-24 on the road in Week 1 and deserved to win that game.  They outgained the Panthers by 94 yards and held them to just 261 total yards.  Then last week they were beating the Jets 30-17 with under two minutes left before a miracle happened.  The Jets scored two touchdowns and got an onside kick in the final two minutes to pull out the victory.

You know the Browns are going to be chapping at the bit to get back on the field and erase that sour taste out of their mouth.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to beat the hated rival Steelers Thursday night.

The Steelers had no business beating the Bengals in the opener.  They won 23-20 (OT) despite getting outgained by 167 yards by the Bengals.  That's because the Bengals gave the game away with 5 turnovers and STILL had a chance to win the game with an extra point on the final play of the game, or a FG in OT, both which were no good.  The Steelers were dominated again last week by the Patriots in a 14-17 loss that was a bigger blowout than the final score as they were outgained by 133 yards.

Pittsburgh is missing its best player in TJ Watt, who had 22.5 sacks last year and won Defensive Player of the Year.  He is neck-and-neck with Aaron Donald as the best defender in the NFL.  The Steelers really miss him, and their weakness has been stopping the run the past couple seasons.

That has been the case again this season as the Steelers are allowing 128 rushing yards per game through two games, and that came against a passing team in the Bengals that was way behind the entire game and against the Patriots.  The Steelers are in trouble going up against this Cleveland juggernaut, which is rushing for 200.5 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry.

This game will certainly be played on the ground with 20 MPH winds forecast for Cleveland Thursday night.  The Steelers are only rushing for 83 yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season and Najee Harris is clearly banged up.  The Browns are only allowing 73.5 rushing yards per game this season and 3.8 per carry.

If the game does go to the air, I trust Jacoby Brissett more than Mitch Trubisky.  Brissett is completing 65.6% of his passes this season and is a dual threat with 53 rushing yards on 10 attempts.  He is averaging 6.2 per attempt.  Mitch Trubisky is completing just 59.2% of his passes and averaging only 5.1 yards per attempt.  He has been the second-worst QB in the NFL through two weeks.

Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game.  The Browns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.  If the Browns didn't blow that game against the Jets last week, they would be bigger favorites this week.  We'll take advantage.  Roll with the Browns Thursday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Coastal Carolina/Georgia State OVER 61.5

Coastal Carolina is loaded on offense again this season.  They scored 37.2 points per game in 2020 and followed it up with 40.9 points per game in 2021.  The constant?  That would be QB Grayson McCall, who is back again this season to lead the Chanticleers on offense.

McCall has led this Chanticleers offense to 35.7 points per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  He is completing 70.4% of his passes for 733 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games, while also rushing for 53 yards and a score.

The problem for the Chanticleers this season is that their defense only returned three starters and lost seven of their top eight tacklers.  There are holes in their defense as they have given up 27.0 points per game.  And that has come against three poor offensive teams in Army, Gardner-Webb and Buffalo.  Both Army and Buffalo like to slow the game down, too, or the numbers would be worse on defense and better for Coastal Carolina on offense to this point.

Georgia State is loaded on offense again this season.  The Panthers returned eight starters from a unit that put up 28.2 points per game last season, including QB Darren Granger.  The Panthers are averaging 27.7 points per game against a brutal schedule of South Carolina, North Carolina and Charlotte.  That's why they are 0-3.

The Panthers have been gashed defensively, allowing 37.3 points per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They just gave up 42 points and 501 yards to Charlotte last week.  Now on a short week, their defense is probably still tired, which can also be said for Coastal Carolina after a hard-fought battle with Buffalo.  Look for the offenses to have the advantage on this short week.

These teams played in an absolute shootout last year with Georgia State winning 42-40 for 82 combined points.  Coastal Carolina clearly has their defense figured out, also scoring 51 points against the Panthers in 2020 two years ago.  These teams should have no problem topping 62 combined points in the rematch.

The OVER is 6-0 in Coastal Carolina's last six games following a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.  The OVER is 18-5 in Chanticleers last 23 September games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Panthers last five Thursday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* WVU/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on West Virginia ML -125

The West Virginia Mountaineers could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-2.  As a result of their poor record, they are grossly undervalued heading into this game with Virginia Tech.  We'll take advantage and 'buy low' on the Mountaineers as they are clearly better than the Hokies this season.

West Virginia lost 31-38 at Pitt in the opener in a game they should have won.  But they threw a fluky pick-six with the game tied late in the 4th quarter that bounced off a wide open receivers' hands and into a Pitt defender, who returned it for a TD for the difference.  They also outgained Kansas by 81 yards but lost in OT.  

Pitt went on to take Tennessee to OT, which is an impressive result.  Kansas went on to upset Houston, which is an impressive result.  So the level of competitive WVU has faced thus far has been very tough, and they should be 3-0.  USC transfer QB JT Daniels has injected life into this WVU offense.

Daniels is completing 64.4% of his passes for 743 yards with a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  He is leading a WVU offense that is averaging 46.0 points, 509.7 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  The defense has been solid as well, holding opponents to 328 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.

Virginia Tech has been favored in every game this season and has played a very soft schedule.  The wins have come against Wofford and Boston College.  They failed to cover in a 20-point win over Wofford as 39-point favorites.  They beat a Boston College team that is way worse than most expected coming into the season.  And most concerning, they were upset by Old Dominion in the opener.

While West Virginia is a team on the rise in the Big 12 and with chemistry under fourth-year head coach Neal Brown, Virginia Tech is a team in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Brent Pry.  They returned just 11 starters this season.  While the Hokies have a solid defense, their offense is pitiful as they returned only four starters on that side of the ball.  They are averaging just 23.7 points, 366.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season despite playing such a soft schedule.

The Hokies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take West Virginia Thursday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-130)

The Seattle Mariners will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the Oakland A's as -225 and -215 favorites.  They will have their revenge in blowout fashion in Game 3 today due to their advantage on the mound.

George Kirby is 7-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 22 starts this season with 123 K's in 117 2/3 innings.  Kirby has owned the A's, going 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA in his last two starts against them this season while allowing just one earned run in 13 innings.

The Mariners will feast on Adrian Martinez, who is 4-5 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.512 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-2 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in four home starts.  Martinez allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his lone career start against Seattle this season back on June 30th.

Seattle is 30-10 in its last 40 games as a road favorite and winning by 2.4 runs per game on average.  The A's are 21-46 in their last 67 home games.  The Mariners are 20-7 in the last 27 meetings.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Guardians/White Sox OVER 7.5

Both bullpens are taxed right now with the Guardians beating the White Sox 10-7 in 11 innings last night.  I'm confident both teams will have to dip into their bullpens early in this one because of the forecast, which is calling for 14 MPH winds blowing out to center in Chicago.

I know that both Triston McKenzie and Lance Lynn are pitching well right now, but they are both going to be susceptible to those winds blowing out to center.  The knock on both guys is they allow a lot of homers as McKenzie has given up 24 while Lynn has allowed 16.  McKenzie has allowed 17 homers in 99 innings on the road this season.

The Guardians are hot at the plate right now in scoring 4 runs or more in 10 of their last 13 games overall, including 21 runs in their last two games.  The White Sox are also hot at the plate, scoring 4 runs or more in 9 of their last 12 games overall, including 18 runs in their last two.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in Chicago.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pirates/Yankees OVER 7.5

The New York Yankees are absolutely raking right now at the plate.  They have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are fully capable of covering this 7.5-run total on their own, which they've done in four of their last eight games.

The Pirates busted out for 8 runs against the Yankees last night and should have some success off Luis Severino.  He will be making his first start back from injury since July 13th.  Severino will surely be on a pitch count in this one.

The OVER is 13-3 in Pirates last 16 Wednesday games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Yankees last seven home games.  The OVER is 9-3 in Yankees last 12 games overall.  These teams combined for 17 runs last night and it should be more of the same tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Blue Jays/Phillies Interleague No-Brainer on OVER 8

No team is hotter at the plate than the Toronto Blue Jays right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 19 of their last 22 games overall.  They just combined for 29 runs with the Phillies in an 18-11 victory last night, and it should be more of the same tonight.

Zack Wheeler will be making his first start in a month as he returns from injury and will certainly be on a pitch count.  Wheeler has allowed 10 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  Wheeler is 0-2 with an 8.40 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in three career starts against the Blue Jays.  He faced Toronto on July 13th earlier this season when he allowed 6 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings.

Kevin Gausman comes in struggling himself, allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Rays and Rangers.  Gausman is 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.694 WHIP in five career starts against the Phillies as well.

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 9 MPH winds expected to be blowout out to center with temps in the 80's in Philadelphia.  The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Blue Jays last five games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all five games.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* MLB GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago White Sox -165

The Chicago White Sox on Tuesday represent my strongest release of the entire 2022 MLB season.  I absolutely love the spot for them and their massive advantage on the mound.  That combination should have them being more than -165 favorites over the Cleveland Guardians.

The White Sox had yesterday off, while the Guardians were completing a grueling five-game series with the Minnesota Twins on Monday.  It's now or never for the White Sox, who trail the Guardians by 4 games in the AL Central.  They will have a chance to win the division if they sweep this three-game series, and it starts with Game 1 tonight.

AL Cy Young contender Dylan Cease goes for the White Sox.  Cease is 14-7 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 29 starts this season with a whopping 214 K's in 167 innings.  He has owned the Guardians, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against them this season while pitching 11 2/3 shutout innings.

We'll gladly fade Aaron Civale.  He is 2-6 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.307 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in nine road starts.  Civale has posted a 5.00 ERA and 1.639 WHIP in eight career starts against the White Sox as well.

The White Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall and scoring 6.3 runs per game during this stretch, which has been one of their best stretches of the season.  Chicago is 8-1 in its last nine games vs. a starting pitcher with higher than a 1.30 WHIP.  I'll gladly back the rested team over the tired team with the much better starting pitcher tonight.  Bet the White Sox Tuesday.

20* Vikings/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia ML -130

The Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings are popular picks to win the NFC this season.  I like both teams and even backed the Vikings last week in their victory over the Packers.  But I'm going against the Vikings this week as this is a clear letdown spot now, and they are getting too much respect for that win over the Packers.

That was a Packers team that was rusty after not playing Aaron Rodgers in the preseason, so he didn't have time to get chemistry with his new receivers.  Plus, the Packers were missing both starting offensive tackles and arguably their best receiver in Allen Lazard.  They were easy to defend, and the Vikings took advantage in a 23-7 victory.

The Eagles will not be easy to defend.  They are loaded on offense this season.  They were awesome in the second half of last season, and now they brought in AJ Brown from the Tennessee Titans.  They have weapons all over the field, and Jalen Hurts is quickly becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  He just doesn't get the respect that other quarterbacks with his skill set do, like Lamar Jackson.

Hurts led the Eagles to a 38-35 win at Detroit in Week 1.  Keep in mind that was a bigger blowout than the final score would suggest as the Eagles led 38-21 entering the 4th quarter before letting off the gas.  Hurts threw for 243 yards while also rushing for 90 yards and a score.  The Eagles rushed for 216 yards as a team and will test that Vikings front seven, unlike the Packers.

The Eagles are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL entering Week 2.  The only key player they are missing is DE Derek Barnett.  I think their defense is better than it showed in Week 1 as they were gashed on the ground by the Lions, but they made life miserable on Jared Goff for the first three quarters.  The Vikings are a pass-happy team now, which fits the strength of the Eagles which is their secondary and ability to defend the pass.

Fans are excited about this Philadelphia team and it will be a hostile atmosphere for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings Monday night.  When the Eagles are good, they have some of the best fans in the NFL.  Cousins has always struggled in primetime.  He is 2-9 all-time on Monday Night Football.  The Vikings are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 Monday games.  The Eagles should be 3-point favorites here at least.  I'll gladly take them on the Money Line to be safe.   Bet the Eagles Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on New York Mets +105

The New York Mets are trying to win the NL East.  They just came up clutch last series by sweeping the Pittsburgh Pirates in four games and outscoring them 23-8 in the process.  I love getting them as underdogs to the Milwaukee Brewers tonight.

It's rare that you get the opportunity to back Max Scherzer as an underdog, so we'll take advantage.  Scherzer is 9-4 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.924 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  He owns the Brewers with a 2.21 ERA and 0.902 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.

Corbin Burnes is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  Burnes has been a massive disappointment here down the stretch when the Brewers need wins to make the postseason.  He is 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 21 earned runs and 6 homers in 30 1/3 innings.

Scherzer's teams are 22-2 in his last 24 road starts vs. an NL team with a .315 OBP or worse in the second half of the season.  Roll with the Mets Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+110)

The Baltimore Orioles are just 4 games back in the wild card with a legitimate chance to make the postseason still.  This team has no quit in them, and they finally get a break here with this series against the Detroit Tigers and I fully expect them to take advantage.  They'll win Game 1 in blowout fashion tonight.

The Tigers are 1-6 in their last seven games overall while hitting .165 and averaging just 2.1 runs per game.  Tyler Wells will shut them down, too.  Wells is 7-6 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 22 starts this season.

The Orioles will feast on Tyler Alexander, who is one of the worst starters in baseball.  Alexander is 1-10 with a 6.87 ERA and 1.527 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  Alexander has been at his worst on the road, going 0-7 with an 8.79 ERA and 1.710 WHIP in seven starts away from home.

The Tigers are 0-7 in Alexander's seven road starts this season with six losses by two runs or more.  Detroit is 1-12 in Alexander's 13 starts this season with 11 losses by two runs or more.  The Orioles are 8-1 in Wells' nine starts vs. a team with a losing record this season and winning by 3.7 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Orioles on the Run Line Monday.

20* Bears/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay -10

This is the rare 'buy low' spot on a favorite and 'sell high' spot on an underdog.  The Packers are coming off a 23-7 loss to the Vikings on the road in the opener.  That's an improved Vikings team, and a Packers team that was rusty coming out of training camp, similar to last year when they lost 38-3 in the opener to the Saints before coming back to blow out the Lions 35-17.

The Bears are coming off a shocking 19-10 victory over the 49ers last week.  They trailed 10-0 and looked dead, but then some breaks went their way and they took advantage in the monsoon.  The Bears won that game despite getting outgained 331 to 204 by the 49ers, or by 127 total yards.  They were also outgained 4.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 1.3 yards per play.  They really had no business winning that game.

Now the Bears have to face a pissed off Packers team.  This is a Bears team that is legitimately one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that will show Sunday.  The offense lost Allen Robinson and the defense lost Khalil Mack to get even worse in the offseason.  Those were arguably their two best players.  Justin Fields is still a work in progress and lacking weapons, and the defense is not very good, especially up front.

Christian Watson dropped a sure TD that could have changed that game against the Vikings last week.  These young receivers will be much more comfortable at home at Lambeau Field after playing in a hostile atmosphere in Minnesota.  Plus, both starting offensive tackles and WR Allen Lazard sat out last week, and all three returned to practice this week and could be back.

This is a perfect spot to back the Packers.  Green Bay is 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  Aaron Rodgers has a 26-to-1 TD/INT ratio during this 11-0 run, so he tends to be at his best and bring out the best in his teammates.  Teams like the Bears that pulled off an upset as an underdog of 6 points or more in Week 1 and now are a dog of 6 or more again in Week 2 are 19-48-1 ATS in their last 68 tries.

The Packers own the Bears, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with four consecutive wins by double-digits.  Dating back further, Green Bay is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points and losing by 19.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Las Vegas Raiders -5.5

I can see why the Raiders have gotten steamed from -3 up to -5.5 this week and I believe it is justified.  I love the spot for the Raiders coming off a divisional road loss to the Chargers.  The Raiders only lost 24-19 despite being -3 in turnovers and would have covered the 3.5-point spread if they had gotten the 2-point conversion.

Now they are excited for their home opener and it will be a great atmosphere in Las Vegas as fans are really starting to take to this team.  There's a lot to like about the Raiders in 2022.  They brought in head coach Josh McDaniels, signed one of the best receivers in the NFL in Davante Adams, and also brought in one of the best pass rushers the NFL has ever seen in Chandler Jones from Arizona.

The fact that they have Jones gives them a huge advantage here.  He will be able to relay to the defense what Arizona likes to run on offense all week in practice to get his defense prepared for Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury and company.

Arizona lost 44-21 in Week 1 to the Kansas City Chiefs while getting outgained 488 to 282, or by 206 total yards.  And it was an even bigger blowout than those final stats would suggest.  The Cardinals were down 37-7 and scored two touchdowns in garbage time in the 4th quarter.  Their final three drives added 147 total yards to their final tally, so they only had 59 total yards when it was 37-7.

The Cardinals really miss WR DeAndre Hopkins, who is out the first six games with a suspension.  They were without DE J.J. Watt last week as well.  TE Zach Ertz and WR Rondale Moore are questionable and doubtful, respectively.  They also lost WR Christian Kirk in free agency.  They are basically down three of their top four receivers from last year.  While the Cardinals are dealing with a ton of injuries right now, the Raiders are remarkably healthy.

The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  I hate being on the side that everyone is on in the NFL, but this is one of the rare times I will be as the Cardinals just have too many injuries to overcome, and this is a great spot for the Raiders in their home opener.  Vegas should win this game by a touchdown or more no problem.  Take the Raiders Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +135

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been one of the most underrated teams in baseball this season and a great underdog bet.  They have a great starting staff, which is a big reason why, and now it looks like they found another diamond in the rough in Ryne Nelson after calling him up late in the season

All Nelson has done is go 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.615 WHIP in two starts while pitching 13 shutout innings and allowing only 8 base runners with 13 K's.  The most impressive part about those starts is that they came against the Dodgers and Padres, two of the best lineups in baseball.  Now Nelson will shut down the Padres again today.

Yu Darvish has posted a 3.75 ERA in 15 road starts this season for the Padres.  Darvish has a 3.72 ERA in 15 career starts against the Diamondbacks.  He has allowed 5 homers in 13 innings in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks this season.

The Padres are 6-10 (-13.4 Units) in Darvish's last 16 starts as a road favorite.  Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +10.5

I always like fading teams that won the Super Bowl the previous year because it's so hard to repeat.  There tends to be a hangover effect, too.  Same can be said for Super Bowl losers.  I successfully faded both the Rams and Bengals last week as they were the Super Bowl winner and loser, respectively, and both had no shows in Week 1.

Now everyone expects the Rams to bounce back in Week 2, but I'm not buying it.  The offseason losses were huge for the Rams as they parted ways with LB Von Miller, WR Odell Beckham Jr, WR Robert Woods, G Austin Corbett and OT Andrew Whitworth.  The loss to Whitworth cannot be overstated as he was the leader on this offense.  Tackle Joe Notebloom, who replaced Whitworth, is banged up and questionable.

Matthew Stafford suffered an elbow injury that kept him out of training camp and was clearly rusty in the opener.  He threw three interceptions and was sacked seven times by the Buffalo Bills in the 31-10 loss.  They offensive line got annihilated.  Stafford didn't have any chemistry with anyone other than Cooper Kupp.  And keep in mind the Bills committed 4 turnovers and STILL won by 21 points.

The Rams may be better this week, but asking them to beat the Falcons by double-digits is asking too much.  Atlanta deserved to beat New Orleans in the opener, but lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 27-26.  I loved their balance on offense as they racked up 416 total yards on a very good New Orleans defense.  They rushed for 201 yards, and Marcus Mariota had a clean pocket the entire game and threw for 215 yards while also rushing for 72 yards.

I'm just going to keep fading this Rams team until proven otherwise as I think they are being priced like one of the top teams in the league when in reality they are down this season compared to last year when they won the Super Bowl.  They are also fat and happy and won't be as motivated as they were last season.  The Falcons will come back hungry after blowing that big lead to the Saints last week.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +178

The Boston Red Sox have realized they won't be making the postseason here down the stretch and are just playing out the string.  The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 games overall and have no business being a -200 favorite over the Kansas City Royals today.

Nick Pivetta is 4-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in 15 home starts this season.  Pivetta has never beaten the Royals, going 0-1 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.954 WHIP In three career starts against them.  This is definitely more of a fade of Pivetta and the Red Sox than it is a play on Bubic and the Royals.

The Royals are 7-1 in their last eight Sunday games.  Roll with the Royals Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Saints +3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting a lot of love for their 19-3 victory over the Dallas Cowboys.  That was more bad Dallas than good Tampa Bay.  The Bucs have a ton of injury issues early in the season, especially on offense that won't have Tom Brady hitting on all cylinders.

Brady missed a lot of training camp.  There are huge offensive line issues for the Bucs.  C Ryan Jensen is out with a knee injury, T Donovan Smith left with an elbow injury in the 3rd quarter against the Cowboys and is questionable, and backup rookie LG Wells has been terrible.  T Tristan Wirfs is questionable.  They are also without WR Chris Godwin after leaving the Cowboys game with a hamstring injury.  Both LB Leonard Fournette and WR Mike Evans are questionable, too.

The Saints are getting disrespected after needing a late comeback to beat the Falcons, 27-26 last week.  Jameis Winston was awesome with the game on the line, completing 13-of-16 passes for 216 yards and a pair of touchdowns to Michael Thomas in the 4th quarter alone.  Winston is now 6-2 as a starter for the Saints with a 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio.

The Saints simply own the Buccaneers and Brady.  The Saints are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Dennis Allen just had Brady figured out.  The Saints have gotten pressure on 32% of dropbacks by Brady, whereas he is only pressured 20% of the time against all other teams.  Brady averages just 3.8 yards per attempt when pressure.  There's no question the Saints are going to get pressure on Brady against this suspect, injury-ravaged Tampa Bay offensive line.

The Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win by more than 14 points.  The Saints are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as underdogs.  New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Patriots/Steelers AFC ANNIHILATOR on New England ML -130

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the New England Patriots and to 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  The Patriots were much better than their 20-7 loss to the Dolphins would indicate in Week 1, while the Steelers were much worse than their 23-20 upset victory over the Cincinnati Bengals would suggest last week.

The Patriots were -3 in turnovers against the Dolphins last week, including a strip sack that was returned for a touchdown.  The Patriots were only outgained by 36 yards by the Dolphins and 0.2 yards per play.  Their defense played well in holding the Dolphins to 5.2 yards per play, but the offense wasted a lot of trips in Miami territory.

The Steelers had no business beating the Bengals, and I was on the Steelers last week.  They were outgained 432 to 267 by the Bengals in that game.  But the Bengals gave the game away as Joe Burrow committed five turnovers.  Despite the five turnovers, the Steelers still needed a blocked extra point on the final play of regulation and a missed FG in overtime to win that game.

Mitchell Trubisky was not very good as he went 21-of-38 for 194 yards.  This Pittsburgh offense is one of the worst in the league.  The defense suffered a big blow with the loss of TJ Watt late in the 2nd half of the game, and he is now out at least six weeks with a torn pec.  His loss cannot be overstated as he had 22.5 sacks last year and is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL.  Mac Jones will have a lot more time to survey the field without having to deal with Watt.

Bill Belichick off a loss is absolute gold and has been his entire coaching career.  Belichick is 61-37 ATS following a loss as the coach of New England.  Belichick is 12-3 ATS after scoring 9 points or fewer as the coach of the Patriots.  Belichick is 11-3 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival as the coach of New England.  Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS after being outgained by 100 yards or more last game over the last three seasons, coming back to lose by 11.8 points per game in this spot.  New England is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Patriots Sunday.

20* Fresno State/USC FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State +12.5

Jeff Tedford is back in the Valley after guiding the Fresno State Bulldogs to a Mountain West title in 2018 while going 12-2.  He inherits a very talented team, which made his decision to come back easy.  The Bulldogs have 15 starters back this year, including star QB Jake Haener, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.

Haener is coming off a season in which he completed 67.1% of his passes for 4,096 yards with a 33-to-9 TD/INT ratio in which he led the Bulldogs to a 10-3 season.  Two of the losses were by one score with a 24-31 loss at Oregon as 20-point dogs and a 24-27 loss at Hawaii.  They also upset another Pac-12 team in UCLA as 11-point road dogs.  So they have proven they can play with the big boys of the Pac-12.

They proved it again last week in a 32-35 loss to Oregon State.  They deserved to win that game as they racked up 492 total yards and outgained the Beavers by 94 yards.  That's an Oregon State team that is coming off a bowl season last year and is loaded again this year.  Oregon State crushed Boise State in the opener as well, so it was an impressive loss.

The Bulldogs will have no problem getting back up off the mat this week to face USC.  Haener is pissed his wasn't recruited by USC and will take it out on them.  USC is getting a lot of love after opening 2-0 SU & and 2-0 ATS with blowout wins over overmatched opponents in Rice and Stanford.

Both games were closer than the final scores.  USC is +8 in turnover differential through two games.  The Trojans had three interceptions returned for touchdowns against Rice.  Their 41-28 win over Stanford was much closer than that as Stanford turned it over four times.  Fresno State is better than Stanford with a lot more team speed.  They can match the Trojans score for score on offense and keep up with their athletes at WR defensively.  Stanford and Rice could not match their foot speed.

Fresno State is now 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 road games.  Fresno State is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss.  Plays on any team (Fresno State) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-28 (71.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Fresno State Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -2.5

The Maryland Terrapins are a team on the rise in the Big Ten.  They finally made a bowl game for the first time since 2016 last year and crushed Virginia Tech 54-10 to improve to 7-6 on the season.  Now they enter Year 4 under Mike Locksley, have some chemistry finally, and have his best team yet with 16 returning starters.

The offense is loaded with nine returning starters and that has been on display in the first few games this season.  The Terrapins have averaged 43.5 points and 532.5 yards per game in crushing both Buffalo and Charlotte.  Junior QB Taulia Tagovailoa is completing 78.5% of his passes for 681 yards with four touchdowns and only two interceptions while averaging 10 yards per attempt.  He is one of the best QB's in the country, and he has one of the most talented WR's corps in the country in Jarrett, Jones and Copeland who have combined for 24 receptions, 387 yards and four touchdowns.

SMU has also blown out a pair of overmatched opponents in North Texas 48-10 and Lamar 45-16.  They are playing under a first-year head coach in Rhett Lashlee, so they were fortunate to get a few cupcakes to start.  I don't expect them to handle this huge step up in class well.  It will be a hostile atmosphere as this will be a night game in College Park at 7:30 EST Saturday night.  Fans are more excited about the Terrapins than they have been in a long time, so it should be a great atmosphere.

I'm shocked oddsmakers are calling these even teams or saying SMU would be favored on a neutral even when you factor in home-field advantage.  Maryland should be closer to a 7-point favorite at home in this matchup.  SMU is 19-34 ATS in its last 53 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Mustangs are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 road games after scoring 37 points or more in their previous game.  SMU is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.

Plays on home favorites (Maryland) - in a game involving two dominant teams that have outgained their opponents by 1.2 yards per play or more, after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in two consecutive games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Phillies/Braves OVER 7.5

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves have two of the best lineups in the National League.  They should easily combine for 8 runs or more tonight to cash this OVER ticket.

Aaron Nola has not been sharp of late, going 0-1 with a 6.39 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in his last three starts.  Nola has allowed 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 13 innings in his last two starts against the Braves this season.

Jake Odorizzi is the weak link in Atlanta's rotation.  He is 5-5 with a 4.15 REA and 1.281 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Odorizzi is 0-1 with a 9.52 ERA and 2.116 WHIP in two career starts against the Phillies as well.

The OVER is 7-2-1 in Phillies last 10 road games.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.  The OVER is 33-16-5 in Braves last 54 vs. NL East opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Toledo +32

Ohio State has not been impressive at all this season.  I successfully faded them with Notre Dame +17 in the opener in their sloppy 21-10 victory.  That win looks even worse now after Notre Dame was just upset by Marshall last week.

I wish I would have faded the Buckeyes again last week as they failed to cover as 44.5-point favorites in a 45-12 win over Arkansas State.  I won't make that same mistake here and I'll back Toledo catching 32 points against the Buckeyes.  This is a flat spot for Ohio State with the Big Ten opener against Wisconsin on deck next week.  I think they just want to get out of here with a win and won't be worried about getting margin.

I don't think they can get margin on this Toledo team even if they tried.  This is an underrated, loaded Toledo team that returned 15 starters this season.  Toledo went 7-6 last year with five losses by 7 points or fewer.  That's how close they were to being 12-1.  That included a 3-point loss at Notre Dame as 17-point underdogs.

The Rockets are consistently one of the best teams in the MAC and I believe they are the top team this season, and it's not really even close.  They have handled their business in winning their first two games in blowout fashion while outscoring a pair of overmatched opponents 92-10.  This team will relish the opportunity to face a Big Ten team in Ohio State in their home state.  This is essentially their National Championship game.  

We saw how they handled this type of game last year with a 3-point loss at Notre Dame.  The Rockets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Ohio State is once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week due to that No. 3 National ranking.    They will get more of a fight from Toledo than they bargained for this week.  Roll with Toledo Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kansas +9

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

Last week Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against Pitt in their opener.  I think the Jayhawks will give the Houston Cougars a run for their money and likely improve to 3-0 with another upset in Week 3.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 55.5 points per game, 461.0 yards per game and 8.2 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 345.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 249 rushing yards per game and 7.7 per carry.  They are also completing 70.8% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

Houston came into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the country after going 12-2 last year.  They were extremely fortunate to have that record as they went 4-0 in one score games.  They lost by 15 to Cincinnati and by 17 to Texas Tech, the two best teams they faced.  I have not been impressed at all with Houston as they have lost the stats in each of their first two games and should be 0-2.

Houston managed just 346 total yards and was outgained by 95 yards by UTSA in a 37-35 (OT) victory in their opener as 3.5-point favorites.  Their luck ran out last week as they lost 30-33 (OT) to Texas Tech as 3.5-point underdogs, getting outgained by 115 yards and managing just 355 total yards of offense.  

Those are two bad defensive teams in Texas Tech and UTSA, so averaging just 350.5 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play against them is terrible.  QB Clayton Tune isn't as good as he gets credit for, and they are only rushing for 3.2 yards per carry.  Now the Cougars are gassed after playing two straight OT games and won't have much left in the tank for Kansas this week.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas) - a bad team from last season that was outscored by 17 or more points per game are 36-12 (75%) ATS since 1992.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Cougars are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win.  Take Kansas Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on UL-Monroe +49.5

This is a terrible spot for the Alabama Crimson Tide.  They are coming off a 20-19 win at Texas last week in what was the biggest game in college football.  Now they have their SEC opener on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Crimson Tide.  Nick Saban is the king of just trying to get through these games and taking the air out of the ball in the second half.  He isn't going to be trying to beat UL-Monroe by 50-plus, which is what it's going to take to cover this massive spread.

We have a good data point here with UL-Monroe losing 52-10 to Texas in the opener, or by 42 points.  Texas obviously took Alabama to the wire and would have won if their starting QB didn't get hurt, and had a few calls not gone Alabama's way.  It's worth noting Texas was fortunate to score 52 points as LA-Monroe actually held them to just 383 total yards.

Monroe came back last week and beat a very good FCS opponent in Nicholls State 35-7 as 4.5-point favorites, covering by 23.5 points.  They racked up 434 yards on Nicholls State and outgained them by 124 total yards.  They were only outgained by 124 yards by Texas, so it's pretty impressive they are even in the yardage battle on the season despite playing a team the caliber of Texas.

Of course, we saw last year what the Warhawks were capable of.  They pulled off three huge upsets over Troy 29-16 as 23-point dogs, over Liberty 31-28 as 33-point dogs and over South Alabama 41-31 as 13-point dogs.  They also took Sun Belt champ Louisiana to the wire in a 16-21 loss as 21-point dogs, and only lost 14-27 at LSU as 29-point dogs, a fellow SEC team with Alabama.

Now the Warhawks are in the second year in Terry Bowden's systems and he is doing a good job of recruiting here and trying to turn this program around.  Eight starters are back on offense, and the defense has played very well thus far.  QB Chandler Rogers got his feet wet as a freshman last year with a 9-to-3 TD/INT ratio and 367 rushing yards in six starts.  

He has been superb thus far, completing 77.3% of his passes and averaging 8 yards per attempt in two starts in 2022, while also rushing for 63 yards and a score as a dual threat.  This guy can help the Warhawks move the ball and extend drives and burn clock against this Alabama defense.  And like I said, Alabama isn't going to run up the score as Saban has respect for Bowden.

UL-Monroe is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU win by more than 20 points.  Alabama is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. Sun Belt opponents.  The Sun Belt rolled last week, going 11-3 ATS which included upsets by Appalachian State over Texas A&M, Marshall over Notre Dame, Georgia Southern over Nebraska and South Alabama over Central Michigan.  This is likely the most underrated conference in the country.  Roll with Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on New Mexico State/Wisconsin UNDER 46

Jerry Kill is a first-year head coach at New Mexico State.  He has always been a conservative head coach focusing on defense and ball control, and that is clearly is MO here at New Mexico State thus far.  Kill has nine defensive starters back for the Aggies.  The defense is the strength of the team as only four starters are back on offense.  

Kill knows his best chance to win is to shorten games and control the ball on offense.  They did a great job of that in Week 0 in a 12-23 loss to Nevada.  The problem was the offense turned it over five times in a game they should have won.  They held Nevada to just 257 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  They managed just 303 yards and 5.1 per play against Nevada.

New Mexico State proceeded to get shut out 38-0 by Minnesota in their second game.  The Aggies only managed 81 total yards against the Golden Gophers.  Last week they played a bad UTEP team and lost 13-20 as the offense was held in check once again, but the defense showed what it was capable of in limiting the Miners to 307 total yards.

The Badgers led the nation last year in holding their opponents to 150 yards per game below their season average and finished allowing 16.2 points per game and 239 yards per game.  They have now held their opponents to 17.4 points per game and 301 yards per game or fewer in six of the past seven seasons.  They are elite defensively once again in 2022.

After shutting out Illinois State 38-0 in the opener, the Badgers held the Washington State Cougars to just 17 points and 253 total yards last week.  But once again this season, the offense looks like a problem.  They were held to 14 points and committed three turnovers to get upset by the Cougars.  Wisconsin has only averaged 25.4 points per game and 25.1 points per game the past two seasons, respectively.  QB Graham Mertz is a massive disappointment.

For this game to go over the total, Wisconsin is going to have to do it all on their own.  They are 37-point favorites.  I expect them to shut out New Mexico State, and to not top 40 points themselves.  This is going to be very similar to Minnesota's 38-0 win over New Mexico State two weeks ago and stay UNDER the 46-point total.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Aggies last six non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Badgers last four games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Badgers last four non-conference games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Badgers last seven games following a loss.  Paul Christ is 11-3 UNDER off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Wisconsin.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Wisconsin) - an excellent defensive team from last season that allowed 285 or fewer yards per game, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Troy/Appalachian State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy +12.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Appalachian State Mountaineers.  They followed up their thrilling 63-61 loss to North Carolina in the opener with a 17-14 upset of Texas A&M as 18-point road underdogs last week.  They are feeling fat and happy after beating an SEC team, and they now overvalued as a result, which is a double whammy.  They also won't have much left in the tank for Troy after both games went to the wire.

Troy is no pushover.  I expect the Trojans to be one of the most improved teams in the Sun Belt this season with 18 starters back from a team that went 5-7 last year.  Only two of the losses were by more than two scores.

Troy covered the 21.5-point spread at Ole Miss in the opener in a 10-28 road loss.  They came back last week with a 38-17 win over Alabama A&M.  That was a 31-3 game before they called off the dogs.  QB Gunnar Watson is completing 70.4% of his passes for 626 yards with a 5-to-3 TD/INT ratio through two games and the offense is vastly improved.

Of course, the defense is what gets me the most excited about Troy.  They allowed just 337 total yards per game last season and brought back nine starters and eight of their top nine tacklers from that unit.  Holding Ole Miss to just 28 points is no small feat and shows what they are capable of.  I think they can hang with Appalachian State in a defensive battle this week, and I also kind of like the UNDER as a result, but decided to go with Troy instead due to the terrible spot for the Mountaineers.  Take Troy Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 8

When the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays get together, it tends to be a slug fest.  The OVER is 31-15-7 in the last 53 meetings, including 7-2-2 in the last 11 meetings in Toronto.  Amazingly, 19 of their last 22 meetings have seen 9 or more combined runs, making for a 19-3 system backing the OVER pertaining to today's total.  It should be more of the same Saturday between these two teams.

Kyle Bradish is 3-6 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  Bradish is 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 2.020 WHIP in four career starts against Toronto, allowing 14 earned runs and 3 homers in 17 1/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Jose Berrios, who has struggled this season with a 5.07 ERA and 1.376 WHIP in 28 starts.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Nebraska FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +11

I love the spot for the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  Players and coaches alike finally can stop answering questions about Scott Frost and their poor play under him.  He has been fired, and the Huskers will have a breath of fresh air.  Look for them to get a one game boost at least and to finally play up to their potential and give Oklahoma a run for its money.

Of course, Nebraska should have beaten Oklahoma last year, which was yet another close loss for them.  They lost 23-16 as 22.5-point road underdogs.  They were only outgained by 24 yards by the Sooners.  It's tough to beat Nebraska by margin.  They went 3-9 last year, but all nine losses came by 9 points or less.  In fact, Nebraska hasn't lost any of its last 19 games by more than 9 points, making for a 19-0 system backing the Huskers pertaining to this 11-point spread.

Oklahoma is learning new systems under Brent Venables in their first year with the team.  Lincoln Riley took a lot of talent with him from Oklahoma.  The Sooners only brought back 10 starters this season.  They were fortunate to get a couple cupcakes to open the season in UTEP and Kent State, which they beat 45-13 and 33-3, respectively.  

This is a big step up in class for them and their first road game in a hostile atmosphere as Nebraska fans will be excited with a new head coach and the Sooners coming to town.  Nebraska has already been tested having to play Northwestern and an improved Georgia Southern team.  I think that loss to Southern last week has the Huskers undervalued this week.  Keep in mind this line was only Oklahoma -5 in the offseason, so we are getting at least 6 points of value.

Nebraska is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Huskers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games after a game where both teams scored 31 points or more.  The Sooners are 24-47 ATS in their last 71 games after allowing 17 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a SU win by more than 20 points.

Plays on any team (Nebraska) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with four or more losses in their last five games are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma/Nebraska UNDER 66.5

These teams are familiar with one another after playing last year with Oklahoma winning 23-16 for just 39 combined points.  They are different teams this year, but the familiarity will favor the defense.  So will the forecast, which is calling for possible storms in the morning and 20 MPH winds.  This game will likely be played mostly on the ground as a result, which will keep the clock moving.

Oklahoma has changed philosophy this season under first-year head coach Will Venables.  The former Clemson defensive coordinator is already putting his imprint on this Oklahoma defense.  They have held UTEP and Kent State to just 8.0 points per game and 3.9 yards per play through two games.

At the same time, Lincoln Riley and his high-octane offense are gone.  He took many of his best players with him on offense to USC.  The Sooners have been a little more conservative on offense this season, averaging only 461.0 yards per game against two poor defenses in UTEP and Kent State.  They are going to be an UNDER team this season because oddsmakers keep setting their totals too high due to their past reputation.

Nebraska has faced three straight poor defenses in Northwestern, North Dakota and Georgia Southern.  They will finally meet some resistance on offense from this Oklahoma defense, which held them to 16 points and 384 total yards last year and is even better this year.  I think Nebraska's defense will play its best game as well now with Scott Frost gone.  They are a lot more talented on this side of the ball than they have shown this season.  They only gave up 22.7 points per game last season.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (Nebraska) - with a bad defense that allos 450 or more yards per game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in two consecutive games are 26-5 (83.9%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Huskers last 12 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Florida State/Louisville ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 56.5

Mike Norvell and Florida State have struggled with dual-threat quarterbacks in his three seasons here.  They have really struggled defending Louisville's Malik Cunningham.  Louisville won 48-16 two years ago and 31-23 last year.

Cunningham went 16-of-24 for 278 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 40 yards on seven carries against Florida State in 2020.  Last year, Cunningham went 25-of-39 for 264 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 56 yards on 14 attempts and two scores.  It will be more of the same here as this Louisville offense will do whatever they want on this FSU defense.

Conversely, Florida State is vastly improved on offense this season as they are familiar with Norvell's system now in Year 3.  The Seminoles brought back eight starters on offense, includinG QB Jordan Travis is is coming into his own in his junior season.  He has five of his top six receivers back from last year and four starters back along the offensive line.  

Travis did not face Louisville last year, so he will have the element of surprise.  It was McKenzie Milton, who was replaced by Travis due to his ineffectiveness.  This Louisville defense gave up 31 points and 449 total yards to a suspect Syracuse offense in the opener.  Travis and company can do the same.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings with combined scores of 59 or more points in six of the eight meetings.  The OVER is 11-1 in Cardinals last 12 games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on White Sox/Tigers OVER 7.5

The Chicago White Sox have scored a total of 53 runs in their last eight games overall for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They are more than capable of covering this total on their own, but I have no doubt the Detroit Tigers will chip in some runs to help, too.

Lucas Giolito has been one of the most disappointing starters in all of baseball for the White Sox.  He is 10-9 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.489 WHP in 26 starts this season.  Giolito is 6-6 with a 4.58 ERA in 17 career starts against Detroit, including 1-1 with a 5.93 ERA in his last two starts against them this season while allowing 9 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings.

Matt Manning is 1-1 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.580 WHIP in his last three starts for the Tigers.  Manning has never beaten the White Sox, going 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.810 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He has allowed 15 earned runs in 21 innings in those five starts.

The OVER is 8-0 in Giolito's last eight road starts with a total of 7 to 7.5 runs.  The OVER is 9-1 in Giolito's last 10 Friday starts.  The OVER is 8-0 in Giolito's eight starts vs. teams that average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game this season.  The OVER is 34-14-4 in the last 52 meetings in Detroit.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 9

When the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays get together, it tends to be a slug fest.  The OVER is 31-15-6 in the last 52 meetings, including 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Toronto.  Amazingly, 18 of their last 21 meetings have seen 9 or more combined runs.  It should be more of the same tonight between these two teams.

Jordan Lyles is 10-10 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 6-7 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.439 WHIP in 15 road starts.  Lyles has a 6.59 ERA and 1.829 WHIP in five career starts against the Blue Jays.  The OVER has gone 5-0 in those five starts.

Toronto hasn't listed a starting pitcher, but it's not going to matter.  If it's Yusei Kikuchi that would only be an added bonus.  Kikuchi is 4-7 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.518 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  He is also 1-4 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.619 WHIP in five career starts against Baltimore.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Kansas City -3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are loaded this season.  They beat Arizona 44-21 in Week 1 while outgaining them 488 to 282, or by 206 total yards.  And it was an even bigger blowout than those final stats would suggest.

The Cardinals were down 37-7 and scored two touchdowns in garbage time in the 4th quarter.  Their final three drives added 147 total yards to their final tally, so they only had 59 total yards when it was 37-7.  This might be the best defense the Chiefs have had under Andy Reid.

The Chargers were +3 in turnovers against the Raiders in Week 1 and still nearly didn't cover.  They won 24-19 only after stopping a 2-point conversion by the Raiders that allowed them to cover as 3.5-point favorites.  I think this Chargers team is talented, but this line is suggesting these teams are nearly even when you factor in home-field advantage, and that's just not the case.

Especially now with the Chargers likely to be without their top receiver in Keenan Allen, who suffered a hamstring injury against the Raiders and exited the game.  It's almost certain he won't be recovered in time for this game even though he's listed as questionable.  They will also be without TE Darnell Parham due to a hamstring injury and could be without CB J.C. Jackson, who also missed Week 1 with an ankle injury.

Los Angeles was outgained by the Raiders 5.7 to 5.5 yards per play.  Kansas City outgained Arizona 7.4 to 4.5 yards per play.  The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Chiefs Thursday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Reds/Cardinals OVER 8

The St. Louis Cardinals have scored at least 4 runs in seven of their last eight games overall.  The Cincinnati Reds have scored at least 3 runs in 13 of their last 16 games overall.  These teams should easily combine for more than 8 runs tonight.

Miles Mikolas has not been able to figure out the Reds.  He is 3-4 with a 5.45 ERA in 13 career starts against them, including 0-1 with a 9.65 ERA in his last two starts against them this season while allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 1/3 innings.

Chase Anderson is 0-2 with a 7.87 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in three starts this season for the Reds.  One of those starts came against the Cardinals on August 29th when Anderson allowed 5 earned runs in 1 1/3 innings in a 13-4 defeat.

The OVER is 8-1-1 in Reds last 10 games when their opponent allowed 2 runs or fewer in their previous game.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in St. Louis.  The OVER is 5-1 in Cardinals last six games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The OVER is 8-3-1 in Cardinals last 12 home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -125

The Philadelphia Phillies have son five consecutive games and have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last seven games overall.  We are getting the Phillies at a great value against the Miami Marlins, who have scored 3 runs or fewer in 37 of their last 43 games overall.

Noah Syndergaard is 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.281 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  Syndergaard has owned the Marlins, going 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.

Pablo Lopez is 8-10 with a 4.10 ERA in 28 starts this season, 3-5 with a 5.13 ERA in 14 home starts, and 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in his last three starts.  He just allowed 8 earned runs and 13 base runners in 3 2/3 innings to the Mets in his last outing.

Philadelphia is 21-4 in its last 25 games vs. NL teams that score 4 runs per game or fewer.  The Marlins are 15-40 in their last 55 games overall.  Miami is 6-24 in its last 30 home games.  Take the Phillies Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -123

The New York Yankees have turned things around and are back in position to clinch the AL East down the stretch.  They have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall, including scoring a total of 27 runs in winning each of their last three games, so their bats are potent right now.

There was a terrible turnout by Red Sox fans for Game 1 of this series last night and it will be more of the same in Game 2 as there will hardly be any home-field advantage.  The fans have given up on this team as they are out of the playoff race.  The Red Sox are just 2-5 in their last seven games overall.

The Yankees have a big advantage on the mound tonight.  Nestor Cortes is 9-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.948 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Brayan Bello, who is 1-4 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.732 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -152

The New York Yankees have turned things around and are back in position to clinch the AL East down the stretch.  They have gone 6-2 in their last eight games overall, including two straight wins over the Rays while scoring a combined 20 runs in the process.

The Yankees have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the Boston Red Sox.  Ace Gerrit Cole is 11-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 28 starts this season with 218 K's in 171 1/3 innings.  Cole is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last three starts and has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts.

Nick Pivetta is 4-6 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in 14 home starts this season.  Pivetta has never beaten the Yankees, going 0-3 with a 9.74 ERA and 1.820 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He has allowed 17 earned runs and 6 homers in 13 1/3 innings in three starts against the Yankees in 2022 for an 11.48 ERA.  Bet the Yankees Tuesday.

20* Broncos/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on Seattle +7

This line is inflated.  Denver is a popular team in the offseason after trading for Russell Wilson.  Conversely, Seattle is an unpopular team after losing Wilson.  That has created some artificial line value on the Seahawks.  This line would indicate that Denver is 10 points better than Seattle on a neutral field when you factor in home-field advantage for the Seahawks.  That's just not the case.

We've seen former quarterbacks struggle going back to play teams they have played for their entire career.  Tom Brady barely beat the Patriots in his return to New England and talked about how awkward it was.  Wilson loves Seattle, and it will be awkward for him going into the visitor's locker room and all the distractions that come with playing his former team.

I'm not a big Geno Smith guy, but he does have plenty of starting experience and he doesn't beat himself.  He will keep the Seahawks in this game, and not to mention he probably has the best weapons he's ever had on any team.  The Seahawks still have one of the best WR duos in the NFL in Metcalf and Lockett.

If there's anyone that knows Wilson's tendencies and the best way to defend him, it would be Pete Carroll and this coaching staff.  I think that will be an advantage for this Seattle defense.  Don't fall for his pump fakes, and keep him contained.

The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Seahawks are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as underdogs.  Carroll is 18-8 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Seattle.  Bet the Seahawks Monday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -1.5 (-135)

The New York Mets have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall while scoring 38 runs and an average of 7.6 runs per game.  They are coming up clutch trying to clinch the NL East.  They won't be taking their foot off the gas against the lowly Chicago Cubs tonight.

The Cubs are just 3-11 in their last 14 games overall with nine losses by two runs or more.  They are not seeing the ball well at all right now, scoring just 2.4 runs per game in going 1-4 in their last five games overall.  Javier Assad is making just his 4th start of the season for the Cubs, averaging 4.8 innings in his first three starts while allowing 20 base runners and two homers in 14 1/3 innings.

Chris Bassitt has been great for the Mets this season in going 13-7 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 26 starts, including 5-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 14 home starts.  Bassitt's teams are 37-12 in his last 49 starts as a favorite of -110 or higher and winning by 2.1 runs per game on average.

The Mets are 11-1 when revenging a one-run loss this season and winning by 2.5 runs per game.  Bassitt's teams are 23-3 in his last 26 starts vs. a team with a losing record and winning by 3.0 runs per game.  Chicago is 4-25 vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or fewer runs per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons and losing by 3.4 runs per game.  Roll with the Mets on the Run Line Monday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Pirates/Reds OVER 9

Two terrible starting pitchers go tonight for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds.  The forecast will help us cash this OVER 9 ticket with 12 MPH winds expected to be blowing out to left.  The Pirates just scored 16 runs in three games with the Cardinals, while the Reds have scored at least 3 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall.

Bryse Wilson is 2-7 with a 6.88 ERA and 1.601 WHP in 16 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Mike Minor, who is 4-10 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 0-7 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in nine home starts.  Minor is 2-2 with a 5.58 ERA in seven career starts against Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati is 7-0 OVER following two consecutive road losses to division opponents this season.  The OVER is 10-2 in WIlson's 12 starts vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse this season.  The OVER is 9-1-1 in Pirates last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 5-0 in Pirates last five road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 19-9-2 in the last 30 meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Packers/Vikings NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +2

The Minnesota Vikings will have one of the top offenses in the NFL this season.  Kirk Cousins gets a bad rap, but he is one of only six quarterbacks to throw at least 30 touchdown passes each of the last two seasons.  He is loaded with weapons in Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn and Dalvin Cook.  

Everyone is raving about the new offense under former Rams coordinator Kevin O'Connell, with Jefferson saying he can now see how Cooper Kupp was always wide open even when opposing teams knew he was going to get the ball.  And the defense cannot be much worse than it was a year ago.

The Vikings gave DE Za'Darius Smith a $42 million contract in the offseason in hopes that he can return to the form that saw him recording 26 total sacks in 2019 and 2020.  He played just one game last year with a back injury.  He'll be opposite All-Pro Danielle Hunter to form one of the top edge-rushing duos in the NFL.  Dalvin Tomlinson does a little bit of everything on the inside, and newcomer Harrison Phillips is a run stuffer.

Eric Kendricks is one of the best linebackers in the NFL.  The Vikings had big concerns in the secondary in the offseason, so they spend their top two picks addressing this area.  They used one on Lewis Cline to replace the departed Xavier Woods at safety.  He'll start next to Harrison Smith, one of the top safeties in the NFL.  They got Andrew Booth in the second round even though many projected him to be a first-round pick at corner.  He'll likely start opposite Patrick Peterson.

I don't think the Packers will be anywhere near 100% to open the season.  Aaron Rodgers will be without DeVante Adams for the first time since 2014.  All he did was top 74 receptions and 885 yards in each of the last six seasons, including 10 or more touchdowns in five of them.  He had 2,927 yards and 29 touchdowns the last two years alone.  Also gone is No. 2 receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling.  It's going to take a few games for Rodgers to form chemistry with Sammy Watkins and Romeo Daubs, along with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.  Lazard is questionable to play in Week 1.

The Packers are ripe for the picking in Week 1, and the Vikings have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL when they are good.  The fans will be rowdy for this showdown against the hated division rival Packers.  Remember, the Packers lost 38-3 at New Orleans in Week 1 last year.  Division underdogs are 28-9-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  The Vikings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as home underdogs.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Dodgers/Padres OVER 8

Both the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  The Dodgers have scored 4 runs or more in seven consecutive games.  The Padres have scored 4 runs or more in 12 of their last 14 games overall.  I expect both teams to get to 4 runs or more again today to easily cash this OVER 8 ticket.

Both of these starting pitchers are struggling.  Andrew Heaney is 1-1 with a 5.51 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 10 earned runs and 7 homers in 16 1/3 innings.  Joe Musgrove is 1-4 with a 4.94 ERA in his last 10 starts overall while allowing 30 earned runs and 10 homers in 54 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 16-1 in Heaney's last 17 starts with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The OVER is 13-4 in Musgrove's 17 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs this season.  The OVER is 8-0-1 in Dodgers last nine games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -155

The Chicago White Sox have saved their best baseball of the season for last as they try and chase down the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central.  The White Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall while scoring a total of 38 runs in winning each of their last four games.  The Oakland A's are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall with eight losses by two runs or more.

The White Sox have a big advantage on the mound today behind the underrated Johnny Cueto.  He is 7-7 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 4-3 with a 1.78 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in 10 road starts.  Cueto has never lost to the A's, going 2-0 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Cole Irvin is 7-11 with a 3.72 ERA in 25 starts this season and the White Sox feast on left-handed pitching.  Irvin has been dreadful in his last two starts coming in, allowing 14 earned runs and 23 base runners in 10 innings to the Nationals and Braves.  Irvin allowed 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 6 innings to the White Sox in his lone career start against them.

The White Sox are 49-16 in their last 65 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Chicago is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Oakland is 5-20 as a home dog of +125 to +175 this season.  Roll with the White Sox Sunday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Twins +142

The Minnesota Twins will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the Cleveland Guardians.  They are now 3.5 games behind the Guardians for 1st place in the AL Central, so this is essentially a must-win for them.

Shane Bieber is getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He is 9-8 with a 3.02 ERA in 26 starts this season and certainly a reliable starter.  But he should not be this big of a favorite.  Bieber has posted a 3.40 ERA and 1.268 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Twins.

Josh Winder is being massively disrespected for the Twins.  He is 4-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in six starts this season.  One of his best starts this season came against the Guardians on June 28th when he fired 6 shutout innings in a 6-0 victory.  That was his lone career start against them.

Minnesota is 14-5 (+11.8 Units) after having lost five or six of its last seven games this season.  The value is too good to pass up today given the spot and with Winder on the mound.  Bet the Twins Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -133

The New York Mets are neck-and-neck with the Atlanta Braves for the NL East title here down the stretch.  I think we are getting the Mets at a discount today, especially taking on a Marlins team that has been dreadful at the plate for over a month.  The Marlins have scored 3 runs or fewer in 33 of their last 38 games overall.

Taijuan Walker has been solid for the Mets this season at 10-4 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in 24 starts.  Walker is 3-2 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in eight career starts against the Marlins.  He'll be opposed by Jesus Luzardo, who is 1-4 with a 4.79 ERA in five home starts this season.  Luzardo has posted a 4.22 ERA in two career starts against the Mets.

The Mets are 11-1 in Walker's last 12 road starts with a line of +100 to -150.  Take the Mets Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers -1.5

The Carolina Panthers were decimated by injuries last year.  Most notably, they were 3-2 in games in which Christian McCaffrey played, and 2-10 without him.  They also got terrible quarterback play from Sam Darnold and Cam Newton.  Baker Mayfield is a huge upgrade at quarterback.

The Panthers upgraded the offensive line big-time.  They added two interior linemen in Austin Corbett and Bradley Bozeman, who are going to be major upgraded.  The biggest upgrade could be left tackle Ikem Dkwonu, who they took with the 6th pick in the first round.  RT Taylor Moton is one of the better players at his position.

Brian Burns, Yetur Gross-Matos, Derrick Brown and Matt Ioannidis should form a solid pass rush that saw the Panthers finish in the Top 10 in pressure rate in 2021 despite trailing in most games.  The secondary will be a strength with 2021 first-round pick Jaycee Horn at CB and 2020 second-round pick Jeremy Chinn at safety.  Chinn will play next to Xavier Woods, who has been solid for the Cowboys and Vikings in recent seasons.  Donte Jackson was awarded a $35 million contract for his play and is one of the more underrated corners in the league.

Speaking of poor QB play, the Cleveland Browns are going to have that this season.  They mortgaged the farm to trade for Deshaun Watson, only to see him get suspended for the first 11 games of the season.  That means Jacoby Brissett will start for them.  Brissett has had his opportunity in the NFL, and he has never proven to be a reliable starter in this league.  He doesn't have great weapons outside of Amari Cooper, either.

You know Baker Mayfield is going to be 100% dialed in for this game to get revenge on the Browns for trading him.  He was even quoted as saying "I'm going to fuck them up" when asked about playing his former team.  I think Matt Rhule is fit to be an NFL coach because players love him, and if injuries break his way finally, he could be in the running for Coach of the Year honors.

The Browns are 0-15-1 SU & 4-12 ATS in Week 1 over the past 16 seasons.  The Panthers basically just have to win this game to cover.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/49ers UNDER 42

The San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears have two of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL.  They also have two of the best defenses in the league.  That leads me to really like this UNDER 42 in the season opener as I think points will be at a premium.

Kyle Shanahan is going to be very conservative with Trey Lance early in the season.  Look for him to run the football more than normal and to rely on ball control to win games until Lance gets comfortable a few weeks down the road.  The 49ers easily have a Top 3 defense and probably the best defense in the NFL this season.  They nearly rode that defense to the Super Bowl last year.

Justin Fields struggled last year as a starter.  He should make strides forward, unfortunately there isn't a lot of talent around him, especially with the loss of top receiver Allen Robinson.  The Bears also figure to rely on the running game a lot early in the season, and Fields will be a big part of that with his dual-threat ability.  Despite miserable offense after miserable offense, the Bears have been pretty steady in fielding a top-notch defense throughout the years.

Chicago is 60-34 in its last 94 games as a home underdog of 7 points or less.  The UNDER is 7-1 in 49ers last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans +8

The Houston Texans come into the season undervalued after going just 4-13 last season.  But Lovie Smith has this team on the rise and they played very well on the preseason.  Not to mention, QB Davis Mills finished strong last year and is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the NFL.

Mills completed 66.8% of his passes as a rookie last year.  Rookie RB Dameon Pierce is getting rave reviews in camp and could win Rookie of the Year honors.  Houston has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  The left side is solid with Laremy Tunsil and first-round rookie Kenyon Green.

Houston has very good offensive and defensive lines, which is why they are underrated coming into the season with the lack of big names.  Jonathan Greenard had eight sakcs in 12 games last year.  Jerry Hughes comes over from the Buffalo Bills after a great nine-year run with the team.  Maliek Collins is well-rounded on the interior.

There is a lot of hype surrounding the Indianapolis Colts this year.  They somehow blew their chance at making the playoffs by losing to the Jaguars in Week 18.  Carson Wentz is gone, and now in comes the veteran Matt Ryan.  Remember, Ryan had all the weapons he could ask for in Atlanta and wasn't able to do anything with them aside from the one Super Bowl Run that was aided by Kyle Shanahan calling the plays.  He'll be better under Frank Reich, but Ryan is far past his prime.

The losses were big in the offseason with WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Jack Doyle CB Rock Ya-Sin and OT Eric Fisher all gone.  The Colts have spent three early draft choices on defensive linemen in recent offseasons, yet they finished dead last in pressure rate last season.  They traded Ya-Sin to the Raiders for Yannick Ngakoue.  He will get a pass rush, but he gets trampled against the run.

The Colts have been slow starters going 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 Week 1 games.  Divisional underdogs are 28-9-2  ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. AFC South foes.  Asking the Colts to go on the road and win by more than a touchdown to cover in Week 1 is asking too much.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

15* Steelers/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +7

The Cincinnati Bengals come in overvalued after making the Super Bowl last year.  I always like fading both Super Bowl winners and especially Super Bowl losers because there seems to be a hangover effect.  Indeed, Super bowl losers are 5-21 ATS in Week 1 the following season over the past 26 years.

I'm a big Joe Burrow guy as he has won me a ton of money dating back to his time at LSU.  But it's going to take him some time to recover from an appendectomy this summer, which caused him to lose 20 pounds due to an infection.  He didn't play at all in the preseason and has only recently been cleared to play.

There cannot be that big of a drop off from Big Ben to Mitch Trubisky.  Big Ben was a dink and dunk QB the last couple years.  Trubisky is at least mobile and can stretch the field.  He thrived in the preseason and the Steelers feel good about his prospects.

Trubisky has a lot more weapons at his disposal in Pittsburgh than he did in Chicago.  They are Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Treiermuth and rookie George Pickens.  Najee Harris is a solid back and they can rely on him plenty, especially catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Steelers had issues against the run last year and tried to shore that up this offseason.  But they were very good against the pass and will be again, making this a good matchup for them.  T.J. Watt is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL, logging 22.5 sacks last season.

I just think this line is inflated because the Bengals went to the Super Bowl last year, while the Steelers are breaking in a new QB.  Division underdogs are 28-9-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  The Steelers are 25-7 SU & 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 meetings with the Bengals.  Pittsburgh is 35-15-2 ATS in its last 52 games as an underdog.  Take the Steelers Sunday. (Buy 0.5 to +7 if necessary)

20* Mississippi State/Arizona FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona +11

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They add in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback and I think this is going to be the single most improved team in the country.

I backed Arizona last week as 6.5-point underdogs at San Diego State.  That was a no sweat winner as Arizona rolled to a 38-20 victory, gaining 461 total yards and holding the Aztecs to 232 yards, outgaining them by 229 yards.  De Laura lived up to the hype, throwing for 299 yards and four touchdowns with one pick in the win.

Fans are excited about this team finally, and it's going to be a raucous atmosphere in Tucson Saturday night with an 11:00 PM EST kick.  That's a very late start for a Mississippi State team that is in the Eastern time zone and won't be used to it.  I like this Mississippi State team, but they should not be laying double-digits on the road to the Wildcats in Week 2.  The Bulldogs beat a Memphis team last week that is way down this year and is getting too much respect for that blowout home victory.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on New Mexico State/UTEP UNDER 47

Jerry Kill is a first-year head coach at New Mexico State.  He has always been a conservative head coach focusing on defense and ball control, and that is clearly is MO here at New Mexico State thus far.  Kill has nine defensive starters back for the Aggies.  The defense is the strength of the team as only four starters are back on offense.  

Kill knows his best chance to win is to shorten games and control the ball on offense.  They did a great job of that in Week 0 in a 12-23 loss to Nevada.  The problem was the offense turned it over five times in a game they should have won.  They held Nevada to just 257 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  They managed just 303 yards and 5.1 per play against Nevada.

New Mexico State proceeded to get shut out 38-0 by Minnesota in Week 2.  The Aggies only managed 81 total yards against the Golden Gophers.  It will be tough sledding again this week against a UTEP defense that only allowed 25.2 points per game last season and brought back eight starters from that defense.

UTEP's defensive numbers are inflated this season because they have played two great offenses in North Texas and Oklahoma.  Don't be surprised to see them hold this awful Aggies offense to 14 points or fewer this week as this is a big step down in class.  I also expect UTEP to score more than the 13.0 points per game they are averaging through two games, but not enough to get this final score over the 47-point total.  They are a run-based team that lost their star receiver last year in Jacob Cowing, who had 1,354 yards and seven touchdowns.

UTEP beat New Mexico State 30-3 last year for just 33 combined points, so there is familiarity with these teams which also favors the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -11

The Oklahoma State Cowboys went 12-2 last year and should have won the Big 12 title.  But they got stopped on the goal line in four tries by Baylor in the title game.  They rebounded to beat Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, and now they come back highly motivated to win the Big 12 in 2022.

Mike Gundy made a point of speeding up the offense to get this unit back to where it has been in years past.  That was on display in the opener as the Cowboys ran a play every 19 seconds, running 73 plays in 23:52 for 531 yards and 7.3 yards per play in their 58-44 win over Central Michigan in the opener.

That game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate, and I think that misleading result is providing us with some line value this week, because Oklahoma State failed to cover the 20.5-point spread.  The Cowboys led 51-15 in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs.  Central Michigan scored most of their points against the Cowboys' backups.

Conversely, I think Arizona State is getting too much respect this week after covering as 25.5-point favorites in a 40-3 win over Northern Arizona last week.  But make no mistake about it, the Sun Devils look like one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country this season, and that will show as the season goes on.

Herm Edwards is squarely on the hot seat entering his 5th season in Tempe.  He has just seven starters back as this is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country.  He lost a ton of players to the transfer portal, including QB Jayden Daniels.  Each of the top four receivers and each of the top three rushers are gone.  Seven of the top nine tacklers are gone on defense.

The atmosphere will be great for this Saturday night game in Stillwater.  The Cowboys are going to keep that fast-paced offense going and run Arizona State off the field.  The conservative Sun Devils won't be able to play catch up like Central Michigan did, and I don't expect the Cowboys to call off the dogs so early after what happened last week.  Oklahoma State is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 13-2 in their last 15 road games.  The Texas Rangers are 1-11 in their last 12 games overall.  Toronto is trying to wrap up a wild card spot while also still having an outside chance to win the AL East here down the stretch and are playing with a sense of urgency.  They have scored 4 runs or more in 11 consecutive games.

Toronto has a big advantage on the mound today with Kevin Gausman, who is 11-9 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Gausman has been at his best on the road, going 7-3 with a 2.07 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 13 starts away from home.

Gausman is also 3-2 with a 2.82 ERA in seven career starts against Texas.  He'll be opposed by Kohei Arihara, who is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has never had much success in the big leagues and is no more than a fill in starter here for the Rangers down the stretch.

Gausman's teams are 13-1 in his last 14 road starts in the second half of the season and winning by 4.8 runs per game on average.  Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Connecticut +23.5

The UConn Huskies are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2022.  I love the Jim Mora hire.  He joined the staff for the final four games last year so he could recruit for this season.  He retained his DC in Lou Spanos, who held the same position under Mora at UCLA and was at UConn the last three years.

The Huskies welcome back 15 starters and 54 lettermen.  They return each of their top six tacklers on defense.  The Huskies had five games decided by 14 points or less last year and should be more competitive this season.  That has proven to be the case thus far as they are 2-0 ATS and undervalued.

Connecticut jumped out to a 14-0 lead on Utah State in the opener and eventually lost 31-20, covering easily as 23.5-point underdogs.  I had them at +28 in that game as a lot of money came in on them.  UConn went on to cover as 20.5-point favorites in a 28-3 win over Central Connecticut State last week.  Now this will be their third game because they were one of the few teams to play in Week 0, which is an advantage for them.

Syracuse is getting too much respect for its 31-7 upset win over Louisville as 5-point underdogs last week.  Louisville gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 3-0.  This is a Syracuse team that went 5-7 last year with its only blowout win by this kind of margin coming against FCS Albany.  While they may be improved, they should not be 23.5-point favorites here.  This is now a sandwich game and a bad spot for them coming off a conference win against Louisville, and with Purdue on deck next week.

Syracuse is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a blowout upset win by 21 points or more as an underdog, and 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games following an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog.  Dino Babers is 0-8 ATS after allowing 9 points or fewer last game as the coach of Syracuse.  Bet Connecticut Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas +13.5

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

I am high on West Virginia compared to the market, and I cashed them as 7.5-point underdogs in their opener in a 7-point loss to Pittsburgh.  But they were in control of that game and let it slip away after a wide open receiver dropped an easy catch, and it was intercepted returned for a TD in the final minutes.  

That was a deflating loss in the Backyard Brawl rivalry, and I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team like WVU twice.  Don't be surprised if Kansas pulls this upset after only losing by 6 to WVU last year.  This is a hangover spot for the Mountaineers and the Jayhawks are live underdogs this week, and I expect them to be live underdogs a lot this season.  Take Kansas Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-110)

The Chicago White Sox have saved their best baseball of the season for last as they try and chase down the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central.  The White Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall while scoring a total of 28 runs in their last three games.  They just came back from 3-0 down in the 9th to beat the A's 5-3 yesterday and have a ton of momentum now.

The Oakland A's are 1-8 in their last nine games overall with seven losses by two runs or more.  It won't get any better for them today with Adrian Martinez going.  He is 4-3 with a 4.37 ERA in seven starts this season.

Lance Lynn has been dominant for the past month.  He is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last five starts while allowing just 5 earned runs in 31 2/3 innings with a whopping 40 K's.  Lynn is also 4-2 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in nine career starts against the A's.

The White Sox are 48-16 in their last 64 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Chicago is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

15* Virginia/Illinois Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Illinois -3.5

Illinois improved last season down the stretch in going 4-3 in their final seven games including upsets over Penn State and Minnesota as 24 and 14-point underdogs, respectively.  It's year 2 under Bret Bielema and he has 13 starters back plus Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito at quarterback.

I've been impressed with Illinois in their first two games this season.  They crushed Wyoming 38-6 in the opener while outgaining them by 265 yards.  That's a Wyoming team that came back last week and upset Tulsa.  They should have beaten Indiana, outgaining them by 86 yards but blowing it late in the 4th quarter.  I think that loss has them a little undervalued coming into this week.  Illinois should be at least a 7-point favorite over Virginia.

Virginia is in rebuilding mode after losing head coach Bronco Mendenhall in the offseason.  They also bring back just 10 starters for first-year head coach Tony Elliott.  They do have stud QB Brennan Armstrong back, but he has a lot on his shoulders.  Virginia is breaking in five new starters along the offensive line, and I love fading teams that are bad in the trenches.

While these teams are pretty evenly matched on offense, Illinois is going to have a huge advantage on defense.  Virginia gave up 31.8 points and 466 yards per game last year. They gave up 226 rushing yards per game and 5.8 per carry.  Illinois is going to be able to run the ball at will on this Virginia defense.

The Cavaliers gave up 170 rushing yards and nearly 5.0 yards per carry in their 34-17 win over Richmond last week.  Illinois is only allowing 14.5 points, 287 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play through two games.  Illinois will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football and win this Big 10 vs. ACC matchup with plenty of room to spare.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* UNLV/Cal Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNLV +13

The UNLV Rebels are one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into the season.  Marcus Arroyo is in Year 3 here, and that's when coaches usually make their biggest leaps.  UNLV pulled upsets over Hawaii and New Mexico in its final two games last year.  They also lost in double-OT to Eastern Washington, by 7 to UTSA as 21-point dogs, by 4 to Utah State as 7-point dogs and by 8 to San Diego State as 10-point dogs.  Those last three teams were three of the best Group of 5 teams in the country.

Now Arroyo welcomes 12 starters back including QB Doug Brumfield, who showed out in the opener.  UNLV beat Idaho State 52-21 as 23-point underdogs.  They gained 554 yards of offense and outgained Idaho State by 313 yards.  Brumfield threw for 356 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the win.

California is not a team you can trust to lay double-digit points.  Like clockwork, they have a terrible offense and a great defense every season under Justin Wilcox.  They have averaged 23.8 points per game or fewer in four consecutive seasons, while allowing 26.5 points per fewer each of the last four years.  Wilcox is on the hot seat entering Year 6, and he has one of the most inexperienced teams in the country with only eight starters back.

Cal did manage to cover in a 34-13 win over UC-Davis as 14-point favorites in the opener.  But that game against a FCS opponent was much closer than the final score would indicate.  California only outgained UC-Davis by 28 yards.  That misleading result now has California laying too many points against UNLV this week.

UNLV is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.  California is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games following an ATS win.  The Golden Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rebels are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following a win by 28 points or more.  Take UNLV Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Pitt ABC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -5.5

Pittsburgh comes into the season with massive expectations after winning the ACC last season and going 11-3 overall.  Keep in mind the Panthers never won more than eight games in the previous six seasons under Pat Narduzzi, and they hadn't won more than eight games in over 10 years.  While the Panthers do have 15 starters back, they lose all of their best players.

QB Kenny Pickett (4,319 yards, 42 TD, 7 INT) was drafted in the first round by the Steelers.  Top receiver Jordan Addison (100 receptions, 1,593 yards, 17 TD) transferred to USC to play under Lincoln Riley.  The loss of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple is also massive as he was the architect of Pitt's record-setting offense.  They will have a completely new scheme under OC Frank Cignetti, who spent the past two years at Boston College.

I just think Pitt comes in overrated based on last year's results.  I successfully faded them in Week 1 as 7.5-point favorites against West Virginia.  While they won that game 38-31, they had no business winning it as West Virginia was in control until throwing a pick 6 off a wide open receivers hands in the final minutes.  West Virginia outgained them by 18 yards and Pitt's offense was held to just 384 total yards.  Pitt also suffered some key injuries in that game.  It was a big rivalry game in the Backyard Brawl, and they won't be nearly as motivated as they were to win that game on a standalone Thursday Night game.

Tennessee will be the more motivated team looking for revenge from a 41-34 home loss to Pitt last year.  The Vols gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 3-0.  While Pitt is on the decline, Tennessee is on the rise entering Year 2 under Josh Heupel.  The Volunteers welcome back 15 starters this season and are thriving in Heupel's system.

The Vols scored 45 or more points in four of their final five games last season.  QB Hendon Hooker is back along with eight starters on offense.  Hooker is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  He completed 68% of his passes for 2,945 yards and a ridiculous 31-to-3 TD/INT ratio last season, while also rushing for 616 yards and five scores as a dual-threat.

The Vols are off and running again this season beating Ball State 59-10 as 37-point favorties in the opener.  Hooker went 18-of-25 for 221 yards and two touchdowns in the opener, while also rushing for two scores.  He got pulled early in the 2nd half with the game in hand.

Tennessee is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  The Volunteers are favored for good reason on the road here as they are clearly the better team and that will show on the field.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Army +3

The Army Black Knights come back motivated after losing to a very good Coastal Carolina team 38-28 in Week 1.  Coastal Carolina was the team playing keep away as they ran 23 more plays than Army did.  Army's numbers were good as they averaged 7.3 yards per play on offense while giving up 6.2 yards per play on defensive, outgaining the Chanticleers by 1.1 yards per play.

Keep in mind Coastal Carolina had all offseason to prepare for the triple-option, which was a huge advantage.  Now UTSA only has one week to get ready for it and they won't be ready at all.  UTSA is also in a terrible spot.  They are coming off a triple-OT loss to Houston last week in which they blew a 21-7 lead in the 4th quarter.  I think there will be a hangover effect.  And this is a sandwich spot with an even bigger game against Texas on deck.

Army returned 14 starters this season, which is a ton for a service academy.  Army has now won at least 9 games in four of the past five seasons.  They are loaded again, and head coach Jeff Monken is doing a tremendous job with this program.

UTSA is getting a lot of respect after going 12-2 last season.  Amazingly, the Roadrunners went 6-0 in one-score games last year, so they were very fortunate in close games.  They returned 21 starters last season and now have just 13 starters back this season.  The defense is going to be a problem with just five starters back.

I think Army is going to be able to move it up and down the field on the Roadrunners and control the game with their offense.  They will wear down this UTSA defense as the game goes on, especially after having to play a triple-overtime game last week.  I expect Army to win outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.   Bet Army Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

Both the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  The Dodgers have scored at least 4 runs in five consecutive games and are averaging 7.6 runs per game during this stretch.  The Padres have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 12 games overall.  Both teams should stay hot against these two sub-par starting pitchers tonight.

Mike Clevinger is 5-6 with a 3.84 ERA in 17 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.65 ERA in his last three.  Clevinger has been awful against the Dodgers this season, going 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA in two starts against them while allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 8 innings.

Dustin May is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts for the Dodgers this season and is no more than a fill-in starter.  One of those starts came against the Padres last time out when May allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings to San Diego on September 2nd.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Dodgers last seven games overall.  The OVER is 6-1 in Padres last seven games overall.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Rangers OVER 8

The Toronto Blue Jays are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 10 consecutive games and are more than capable of covering this total on their own.  Look for the Rangers to chip in as well.

Dane Dunning is 3-8 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.428 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Dunning has really struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 7.07 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his last three starts.  He'll be opposed by Ross Stripling, who is 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in one career start against the Rangers.

The OVER is 14-3 in Rangers last 17 home games vs. an AL team that allows 4.4 or fewer runs per game.  The OVER is 35-16 in Blue Jays last 51 games following a win.  The OVER is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings in Texas.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Louisville/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UCF -5.5

The UCF Knights are going to be one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country this season.  Gus Malzahn had a productive first season in Orlando last year in guiding the Knights to a 9-4 season despite suspect quarterback play.  Now Malzahn welcomes back 17 starters and some stud transfers, including QB John Rhys Plumlee from Ole Miss.

Plumlee showed out in the opener by throwing for 308 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for 86 yards and another score to flaunt his dual-threat ability.  They beat South Carolina State 56-10 and covered the 43.5-point spread.  Now with a real quarterback and a veteran, loaded roster, the Knights are going to be tough to tame in 2022.

The Louisville Cardinals have been a massive disappointment under head coach Scott Satterfield.  After going 8-5 in his first season, the Cardinals have gone 4-7 and 6-7 the past two seasons, respectively.  Many thought they would be better this season, but that is clearly not the case.

Louisville was steamed up to a 5.5-point favorite at Syracuse in the opener.  They lost 31-7 and were outgained by 115 yards.  They gave up 449 yards to what was a terrible Syracuse offensive last season.  And their supposedly high-powered offense was only held to 334 total yards.  Malik Cunningham threw for only 152 yards and two interceptions in the defeat.

UCF wants revenge from a 42-35 loss at Louisville last season.  UCF was a 7-point favorite in that game, now they are only a 5.5-point favorite at home in the rematch.  And clearly the Knights are improved this season while the Cardinals are no better than they were last year, and maybe worse.

UCF has one of the best home-field advantages in the country in the Bounce House.  It's going to be even more of an advantage for this stand-alone Friday night game on National TV.  Fans are hyped about this team, and it will be a very tough atmosphere for Cunningham and Louisville to deal with.

Louisville is 11-28-1 ATS in its last 40 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  The Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 275 or fewer total yards in their previous game.  They held South Carolina State to 91 total yards and outgained them by 509 yards.  Bet UCF Friday.

20* Bills/Rams 2022 NFL Season Opener on Buffalo -2.5

The Buffalo Bills are the best team in the NFL to open the season in my opinion.  They should have won the Super Bowl last year, and they come back highly motivated to do so this year.  They get to open the season with the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, which has only added fuel to their fire all offseason getting prepared for this game.

Buffalo is perhaps the only team in the NFL that I'm certain has a Top 5 offense and a Top 5 defense.  Josh Allen threw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns with only 10 interceptions last year, while completing 69.2% of his passes and also taking fewer sacks.  The offensive line got two upgrades this offseason in Rodger Safford and David Quessenberry, both formerly of the Titans.  They have a bonafide star receiver in Stefon Diggs, and Gabriel Davis showed he could be the No. 2 with 201 yards and four touchdowns against the Chiefs.  They added Jamison Crowder, which is an upgrade over the departed Cole Beasley in the slot.

The Bills had the top-ranked defense in the NFL last season and also were No. 1 in pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks.  Well, they got even better in that department in the offseason by signing Von Miller to a $120 million contract in the spring.  The one weakness on Buffalo last season was stopping the run, and they shored that up by adding DaQuan Jones, who will start next to Ed Oliver at defensive tackle.

I always like fading teams that won the Super Bowl the previous year because it's so hard to repeat.  There tends to be a hangover effect, too.  Same can be said for Super Bowl losers.  And the losses are huge for the Rams as they part ways with the aforementioned Von Miller, WR Odell Beckham Jr, WR Robert Woods, G Austin Corbett and OT Andrew Whitworth.  The loss to Whitworth cannot be overstated as he was the leader on this offense.

Matthew Stafford suffered an elbow injury that kept him out of training camp.  Many has said he won't be the same quarterback as last year, while some say he looks perfectly fine leading up to the opener.  Either way, there will be a rust factor, and it's definitely a concern for the Rams at the very least.

I think the Bills are the hungrier, more ready team for Week 1 given all that has taken place in the offseason.  Buffalo is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games vs. NFC West opponents.  The Bills are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Week 1 games.  Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Twins/Yankees OVER 7

The Minnesota Twins have combined for 7 or more runs with their opponents in seven of their last eight games overall.  That includes each of the first three games of this series with the New York Yankees.  It should be more of the same today with these teams combining for at least 7 runs tonight.

Sonny Gray is 1-2 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in five career starts against the Yankees.  Nestor Cortes is 1-1 with a 4.77 ERA in two career starts against the Twins.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his lone start against Minnesota this season.

Minnesota is 14-2 OVER when revenging a blowout road loss by 6 runs or more over the last two seasons.  The Twins are 12-1 OVER when revenging four or more consecutive losses vs. opponent over the last two years.  The OVER is 41-18-5 in Twins last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 37-15-2 in the last 54 meetings.  The OVER is 14-3-1 in the last 18 meetings in New York.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cubs/Reds OVER 8

The Cincinnati Reds have gone 3-0-1 OVER in their last four games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all four and 10 or more in three of those.  The The OVER is 4-1-4 in Cubs last nine games overall with combined scores of 8 or more runs in eight of those nine games.

These are two gas can starting pitchers going for both teams today.  Luis Cessa is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.583 WHIP in four starts this season.  Adrian Sampson is 1-5 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in six home starts.

The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.  The Cubs and Reds have combined for at least 8 runs in eight of their last nine meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-140)

Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals has been the biggest impact trade of the season to this point.  Montgomery is 5-0 with a 1.47 ERA in his last six starts for the Cardinals, allowing just 6 earned runs in 36 2/3 innings.

Montgomery has a big advantage on the mound over Cory Abbott of the Washington Nationals.  Abbott is 0-2 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 2/3 innings.

The Nationals are 19-40 in their last 59 games overall.  Washington is 5-22 in its last 27 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Cardinals are 36-16 in their last 52 games overall.  St. Louis is 38-15 in its last 53 home games.  The Cardinals are 10-1 in their last 11 during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the Cardinals on the Run Line Wednesday.