15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State +27.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Boise State Broncos.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall since QB Hank Bachmeier transferred out.  The wins came against San Diego State, Fresno State and Air Force.  All three programs are down this season compared to preseasons expectations.

This is a letdown and sandwich spot for Boise State.  They are coming off the 19-14 win at Air Force that puts them on the inside track to win the Mountain West.  Now they have a big game against rival BYU on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot.  They won't be giving their 'A' effort this week, and that's going to make it difficult for them to win by four-plus touchdowns, which is what it's going to take to cover this spread.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Colorado State, which faced a brutal early schedule and got off to an 0-4 start under first-year head coach Jay Norvell.  But the Rams have continued to fight and improve under Norvell, going 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall with wins over Nevada and Hawaii and only a 4-point loss to Utah State as a 14-point dog.

I know Colorado State's offense has struggled, but their defense has been better than expected.  Their defense is the reason they have a chance to cover this game because Boise State is going to have a hard time scoring 28 points in this one with a total of just 43.  The Rams are holding foes to 381 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play, which is impressive considering how much they have been on the field due to their offense.  They have held their last three opponents to just 14.7 points per game.

It's not like Boise State is an offensive juggernaut, either.  The Broncos are scoring 26.0 points per game, averaging 336 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that allow 362 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They have a below-average offense.  Their defense is good, but that have faced such an easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They have played the 104th-ranked schedule in the country overall.

Colorado State is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in their previous game.  The Broncos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a win.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +4.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings after an 0-4 start this season.  They are much better and more talented than they have shown to this point after going unbeaten in the preseason.  They just haven't been able to put it all together yet.  It's only a matter of time, and I expect the Kings to pick up their first win of the season tonight.  They were competitive in three of their four losses to the Blazers, Clippers and Warriors.

It's a great spot for the Kings as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They are fully healthy with the starting five of Fox, Murray, Heurter, Sabonis and Barnes all averaging double-figures scoring.  Murray is starting to show why he was among the favorites to win Rookie of the Year, averaging 17.7 points per game on 51.3% shooting and 41.7% from 3-point range.  Fox has taken his game to the next level averaging 30.5 points per game.

It's a terrible spot for the Miami Heat, who will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days overall.  They are coming off a loss to the defending champion Warriors, and it will be hard for them to be as motivated to face the Kings as they were the Warriors.  The Heat are just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS this season and have been a major disappointment.  They have really slipped defensively with the loss of PJ Tucker, their leader on that end of the court.

The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Kings are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Sacramento is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 Saturday games.  The Kings are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Sacramento.  Roll with the Kings Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on North Texas +10

North Texas has been very impressive the last four games they have played and are flying under the radar.  They have what it takes to hang with Western Kentucky in this Conference USA showdown Saturday.  It's a great spot for them and a terrible one for Western Kentucky.

North Texas only lost 34-44 at Memphis as 13-point dogs in what was a misleading final four games back.  They actually outgained Memphis 473 to 344 in that game, or by 139 total yards.  Three games ago they won 45-28 at home against Florida Atlantic with 481 total yards.  Two weeks ago they won 47-27 at home over Louisiana Tech with 671 total yards.  And last week they led UTSA late and lost 27-31 as 10-point road underdogs.  UTSA is the favorite to win Conference USA.

This North Texas offense can keep them in every game as they will never be out of this one.  The Mean Green are putting up 35.0 points per game, 484 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  They are also fresh and ready to go after having a bye three weeks ago.  They are quietly contenders in C-USA this season, and they will give Western Kentucky all they want and more Saturday.

This is a letdown spot for WKU after a 20-17 win over another C-USA contender in UAB last week.  Well, they would never have won that game if QB Dylan Hopkins didn't get knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter.  UAB backup QB Zeno went 3-of-10 for 33 yards and rushed 6 times for 14 yards after replacing Hopkins.  Simply put, he was awful, and UAB still should have beaten WKU had they not turned the ball over four times.

This is a tired WKU team that will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  The Hilltoppers have benefited from playing a very easy schedule, ranked 122nd in the country.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on them after a 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season.  The only teams they have beaten by this kind of margin are Austin Peay, Hawaii, FIU and Middle Tennessee.  Those are three of the worst FBS teams in the country plus an FCS team, and they only beat Austin Peay by 11.

North Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher.  The Mean Green are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Finally, the Mean Green were 10-point dogs at UTSA last week, and now are 10-point dogs at WKU this week.  UTSA beat WKU and is better than WKU.  This line cannot be the same as it was last week, so there's value on the Mean Green.  Take North Texas Saturday.

20* Northwestern/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +11.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Northwestern Wildcats following six consecutive losses.  Well, five of those six losses came by 10 points or fewer.  They just hung with Maryland last week in a 24-31 road loss as 14-point underdogs.  And now they will give Iowa a run for its money Saturday.

This is exactly the type of game Pat Fitzgerald loves.  It's guaranteed to be a physical Big Ten game against an Iowa team that plays a similar style.  That's why Northwestern plays Iowa tough every year and will play them tough again this season.

Iowa's offense has no business laying this kind of number.  The Hawkeyes are scoring 14.0 points per game, averaging 227 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  They have scored more than 14 points just twice all season.  One was against Nevada, a 27-0 win against what is one of the worst teams in FBS.  The other was a 27-10 win over Rutgers, which was misleading considering Iowa scored two defensive touchdowns and was outgained by 84 yards.  So technically the Hawkeyes' offense only scored 13 points on Rutgers.

Northwestern was even worse last year than they are this season, and Iowa was better.  Well, Iowa won 17-12 as identical 11.5-point favorites at Northwestern.  And they were fortunate to win that game as the were +3 in turnovers.  Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or fewer.

Fitzgerald is 8-1 ATS in road games following a cover where his team lost straight up as an underdog as the coach of Northwestern.  Kirk Ferentz is 3-14 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Iowa.  The Wildcats are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games coming off five consecutive games where they had two or more turnovers.  Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. poor offensive teams that average 310 or fewer yards per game.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on California +17.5

This is a big letdown spot for Oregon.  The Ducks are coming off a 45-30 home win over UCLA in what was one of the biggest games of the week in college football last Saturday.  It's now time to 'sell high' on the Ducks, who are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Oregon has been awesome at home, but it has been a different story on the road.  The Ducks are 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS on the highway this season.  They lost 49-3 to Georgia and only beat Washington State 44-41 as 6.5-point road favorites.  They did beat Arizona 49-22, but California also crushed Arizona 49-31.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Golden Bears, who have lost three consecutive games coming in.  They did hang tough in a 21-28 home loss to Washington as 7.5-point home dogs.  They are now 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season.  This is the best offense Cal has had in a few years, and their defense is solid as always allowing 22.6 points per game.

The recent head-to-head series really favors Cal in this one.  Cal is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Oregon with all three meetings decided by 10 points or fewer.  Now Cal is catching a whopping 17.5 points in this showdown.  Cal always takes this game more seriously than Oregon does, and Justin Wilcox has figured out their offense.  The Ducks have been held to 24, 17 and 17 points in the last three meetings.  That's going to make it tough to cover this 17.5-point spread if they are shut down again.

California is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after going under the total in its previous game.  The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  California is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Ducks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take California Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Louisville +4.5

The Louisville Cardinals have played two of their best games of the season the last two weeks.  They beat Virginia 34-17 on the road as 2-point underdogs without Malik Cunningham.  He returned last week to lead them to a 24-10 home win over Pittsburgh as 1-point favorites.  

It was the fourth time this season that the Cardinals have held their opponent to 17 points or fewer as this defense is better than it gets credit for.  This is also one of the better offenses in the ACC as the Cardinals have scored 32.6 points per game in their last five games.  They have the firepower to hang with Wake Forest, and they also have the defense to get a few key stops.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Demon Deacons, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season against a pretty soft schedule.  Wake Forest has played the 83rd-ranked schedule in the country.  To compare, Louisville has played the 44th-toughest schedule in the country.  They are more battled-tested than the Demon Deacons, and this will be their toughest test since a home loss to Clemson.

Louisville is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings over the past three seasons.  Louisville won 62-59 as 7-point road dogs in 2019, 45-21 as 2-point home dogs in 2020 and lost 34-37 as 7-point road dogs in 2021.  Amazingly, the Demon Deacons continue to be favored over the Cardinals when they shouldn't be.  This is clearly a great matchup for Cunningham and head coach Scott Satterfield.  The underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Louisville Saturday.

20* ECU/BYU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on East Carolina +3

East Carolina is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS this season but could easily be 7-1 instead.  They missed an extra point late and lost to NC State by 1.  They also lost in OT to Navy by 3.  Their one legit loss was a 9-24 setback at Tulane, but Tulane is one of the most improved teams in the country at 7-1 this season with a road win over Kansas State.

What makes me know East Carolina is legit and should be 7-1 is the fact that the Pirates have actually outgained seven of their eight opponents this season.  They are averaging 472.6 yards per game on offense behind a balanced attack with 163 rushing yards per game and 309 passing yards per game.  They are allowing 395 yards per game on defense, outgaining their opponents by 78 yards per game.

BYU has fallen off a cliff since a 4-1 start.  The Cougars have now lost three straight and are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are one of the most overrated teams in the country, and continue to be as favorites here over East Carolina when they shouldn't be.  BYU has been outgained in four of its eight games and drastically in its last three.

You could see the sign of things to come with a 38-26 win over Utah State that was much closer than the final score despite being a 25.5-point favorite against Utah State's third-string QB.  BYU only outgained Utah State by 7 yards.  They went on to lose 28-20 to Notre Dame while getting outgained by 220 yards, lost 52-35 to Arkansas while getting outgained by 173 yards, and lost 41-14 to Liberty while getting outgained by 289 yards.

The brutal schedule and the fatigue are starting to catch up to to the Cougars.  In fact, BYU will be playing for a 9th consecutive week here.  BYU's offense isn't working, and the defense is getting gashed.  Liberty had 41 points and 547 total yards on this BYU defense last week which followed up 52 points and 644 total yards by Arkansas the previous week.

The Cougars cannot stop the run.  They have allowed at least 205 rushing yards in five of their last six games, including 3000 to Liberty and 277 to Arkansas.  East Carolina averages 4.9 yards per attempt this season and can keep the ball on the ground if they decide to, though QB Holton Ahlers is one of the best signal callers in the country.  BYU allows 202 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  ECU only allows 115 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.

East Carolina just crushed UCF 34-13 at home, a UCF team that many thought would win the American Athletic this season.  The Pirates are 9-1 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games as road underdogs of 7 points or fewer.  BYU is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game.  The Cougars are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Bet East Carolina Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia 76ers ML -115

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers.  They have opened 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS through their first five games while being favored in four of those five games.  Now we are getting them at basically even money here against the Toronto Raptors.

Not only will the 76ers be motivated from this poor start, they'll also be out for revenge from a 109-119 loss at Toronto on Wednesday.  Now they get their shot at revenge just two days later here on Friday.  Toronto is not going to shoot 54.8% again like they did in that first meeting.

Toronto is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home games following a win by 10 points or more.  The Raptors are 0-9 ATS in their last nine home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 50-21 (70.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 113-118 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday.  Now they get to host the Hawks again here two days later and are 7-point underdogs in the rematch.  They will want it more tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons coming off four consecutive losses overall.  Three of those losses came on the road.  They are 1-1 at home this season with that 5-point loss to the Hawks being their lone defeat.  They are very healthy right now, while the Hawks are playing without Bogdan Bogdanovic.

This Hawks team is getting a lot of love for a 3-1 start against arguably the easiest schedule any team has faced this season.  They have played three home games against Houston, Orlando and Charlotte plus that road game at Detroit.  They lost by 17 to the Hornets and were in competitive games with both Orlando and Houston as well.

Atlanta is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Hawks are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 road games.  The Pistons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win.  Detroit is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Atlanta.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +3.5

I love the spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight.  They will be highly motivated for their first victory of the season after opening 0-3 SU but 2-1 ATS, so they have been competitive.  They also come in on three days' rest having last played on Sunday.

That extra rest and practice time is huge for this young team and first-year head coach Mike Brown, who led the Kings to a perfect preseason.  They are loaded with talent and that has shown even in the losses.  They lost by 7 at home to Portland after blowing a 7-point lead late.  They lost by 2 to the Clippers as 2.5-point home dogs, and they lost by 5 at Golden State as 10-point road dogs.

This is a terrible spot for the Grizzlies.  They will be feeling fat and happy after a 134-124 home win over the Brooklyn Nets.  They are off to a 3-1 start this season and it's a good time to 'sell high' on them.  They needed OT to beat the Knicks at home, only won by 7 at Houston after outscoring the Rockets by 12 in the 4th quarter, failing to cover as 7.5-point favorites.  And they lost badly 96-137 at Dallas as 6-point dogs.  

The Grizzlies are without Jaren Jackson Jr, Zaire Williams and Danny Green and it has really shown defensively as they rank 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Sacramento is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game.  The Kings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the Kings Thursday.

20* Utah/Washington State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -7

Two road losses to Florida and UCLA have the Utah Utes undervalued right now.  They came into the season as the favorites to win the Pac-12.  Those two losses have them flying under the radar.  They are still the best team in the conference and I think we'll see that play out as the season unfolds.

That was definitely the case last time out as Utah handed USC its first loss of the season.  The Utes racked up 562 total yards on the Trojans in the 43-42 shootout victory.  The Utes are now scoring 40.7 points per game and averaging 473 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense.  I don't see any way for Washington State to be able to score enough points to hang with the Utes in this one Thursday night.

The Cougars are down their two best weapons on offense in WR Renard Bell and RB Nakia Watson.  Watson has rushed for 325 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 5.1 per carry and leads the team in rushing.  Bell has 20 receptions for 282 yards and two touchdowns.  Bell has missed the past two games, while Watson has missed most of the past two games.

To no surprise, Washington State has had it two worst offensive performances in its last two games without these two.  The Cougars managed just 14 points and 316 total yards on a terrible USC defense in a 30-14 loss.  They managed just 10 points in a 24-10 loss at Oregon State last time out.  That's not a great Oregon State defense, either.

Utah has owned Washington State in going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings while winning by 25, 17 and 11 points.  The Utes are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games following a win.  The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.  Washington State is 0-5 ATS in its last five Thursday games.  Utah is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games coming off two consecutive games where 70 or more combined points were scored.  Kyle Whittingham is 21-11 ATS following a bye week as the coach of Utah.  Bet Utah Thursday.

15* Ravens/Bucs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay -1

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  They are coming off the most shocking loss of the season, a 21-3 road loss to the Carolina Panthers.  If Mike Evans didn't drop a wide open touchdown that would have given the Bucs a 7-0 lead, that game would have played out much differently.  Nothing went right for the Bucs after that.

The Bucs are now 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  You'll never get them at a better price this season.  The lookahead line on this game was Bucs -3.5, and now we are getting the Bucs at basically a PK.  Whatever the Bucs have to give, they are going to give in this game to try and turn their season around in front of their home crowd.

The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a 23-20 home win over the Browns as 6.5-point favorites that they did not deserve.  The Ravens were outgained 336 to 254 by the Browns and 6.0 to 4.0 yards per play.  A bad Cleveland defense shut them down, and it took an overturned TD to Amari Cooper late for the Ravens to escape with a victory.

This Baltimore offense has been broken the last four weeks.  The Ravens have managed just 20.5 points per game and just 320.3 yards per game in their last four games.  They aren't going to get any separation from the Bucs, who still have a very good defense that allows just 17.7 points and 308.3 yards per game.  Their defense will keep them in this game, and Tom Brady will make enough plays to get Tampa Bay a much-needed bounce back victory.

And that's why I'm taking the Bucs here because they have the best unit on the field in their defense, and they will be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency tonight.  The Ravens actually rank just 23rd in total defense allowing 366.4 yards per game and 19th in allowing 5.7 yards per play.  Tampa Bay ranks 7th allowing just 4.9 yards per play on defense.

Baltimore is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after playing its last game at home.  Tampa Bay is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  Tom Brady hasn't lost three consecutive games since 2002.  He has never been two games under .500 in his career.  I'll side with history here and for Brady and the Bucs to get the job done.  Roll with the Bucs Thursday.

15* Mavs/Nets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Dallas ML -120

I love the spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They are 1-2 this season with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points to the Pelicans and Suns.  They also crushed the Grizzlies 137-96 in between.  They took the Pelicans lightly last time out because they were without both Ingram and Williamson, and now they come back motivated for a victory tonight.

While the Mavericks are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Nets are a tired team right now.  They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  After losing 124-134 to the short-handed Grizzlies in Memphis on Monday, they lost 99-110 to the short-handed Bucks in Milwaukee on Wednesday.  Now they are back home Thursday playing a Mavericks team that isn't short-handed.

The Nets are now 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season after also losing by 22 to the Pelicans at home in the opener.  Their lone cover came in a 4-point home win over the Raptors as 2.5-point favorites.  This team is still searching for chemistry with Irving, Durant and Simmons, and the fact of the matter is they don't have much help outside those three.  The Nets are also a terrible team defensively and that's not going to change with this personnel, which is why they cannot be trusted no matter how much offensive talent they have.

The addition of Christian Wood makes the Mavericks even more dynamic on offense.  Wood is averaging 24.3 points and 8.7 rebounds per game in just 26 minutes per game for the Mavericks.  Doncic is playing at an MVP level with 34.7 points per game, 9.0 rebounds per game and 7.7 assists per game.  Spender Dinwiddie is filling in nicely for Jalen Bruson, averaging 18.0 points and 3.3 assists per game.

The Mavericks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Dallas is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 road games following an upset loss as a favorite.  Brooklyn is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make at least 36% of their attempts.  The Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  Take the Mavericks Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves -9

I love the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 106-115 upset loss as 8.5-point home favorites to the San Antonio Spurs on Monday.  Now they get to face the Spurs at home just two days later and are 9-point favorites in the rematch.  

The books haven't adjusted enough for the revenge factor, plus the injury to San Antonio's best player in Devin Vassell, who is doubtful for this one.  Vassell is averaging 19.8 points, 5.0 rebound and 4.5 assists per game this season.  He had 23 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists in that win over the Timberwolves while making five 3-pointers.  The Spurs have no chance of keeping this game competitive without him.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Spurs, who are coming off three straight upset road wins over the Pacers, 76ers and Timberwolves.  I think those teams took them lightly after all the offseason media attention they got about tanking, plus the 27-point loss to Charlotte in the opener.  Minnesota will not be taking them lightly tonight.

The Timberwolves are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Spurs.  They won all three meetings last season by 6, 10 and 25 points.  They'll get back to dominating this head-to-head series tonight, especially in revenge mode and with the Spurs missing Vassell.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on OVER 219.5

The Dallas Mavericks are playing a lot faster this season as they rank 10th in the NBA in pace.  Luka Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie are looking to push it more than Jalen Brunson did.  And the addition of Christian Wood makes the Mavericks dynamic on offense.  Wood is averaging 25.0 points per game and the Mavericks rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

The Pelicans rank 6th in the NBA in pace this season.  They are also 4th in offensive efficiency.  I know they will be without Brandon Ingram tonight, but this total has been adjusted down because of it.  The Pelicans are still loaded on offense even without him, and I think they can do their part in getting us this OVER.

Both meetings in New Orleans last season went well OVER the total.  They combined for 243 and 246 points in the two meetings in New Orleans.  The OVER is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in New Orleans.  The OVER is 7-1 in Mavericks last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Bears/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +9

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots.  They are coming off three consecutive covers which were all three misleading final scores.  Now they find themselves laying nearly double-digits against the Chicago Bears Monday night.

The Patriots were 10-point underdogs at Green Bay three weeks ago and took the Packers to overtime before losing by 3.  They were outgained by 172 yards by the Packers.  They took advantage of a banged up Detroit Lions team two weeks ago and won 29-0 as 3-point home favorites.  They only outgained the Lions by 52 yards.  And last week they won 38-15 at Cleveland as 2.5-point dogs.  But they only outgained the Browns by 71 yards.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Bears.  They are coming off a very misleading 12-7 home loss to the Washington Commanders last Thursday.  They outgained the Commanders 391 to 214, or by 177 total yards.  But a muffed punt changed that game, and the Bears went 0-for-3 inside the five yard line, coming away with just 3 points on those three trips.

Chicago doesn't get blown out.  The Bears are 2-4 this season but three losses came by 8 points or fewer, including road losses to the Vikings by 7 and the Giants by 8, two teams that are a combined 11-2 this season.  I think the Bears have what it takes to hang with the Patriots, who aren't an offensive juggernaut and will struggle to cover big numbers.  The Patriots haven't been more than a 3-point favorite in any game thus far this season.

The Patriots do have the better offense, but these teams are pretty equal defensively.  Chicago allows 19.7 points per game and 341.7 yards per game, while New England allows 18.8 points per game and 337.8 yards per game.  Is New England's offense coupled with home-field advantage worth 9 points to the spread?  I don't think so.

Chicago is a great rushing team averaging 171 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  We saw the Patriots struggle to defend the run against the only mobile QB they faced in the Ravens.  They gave up 37 points and 188 rushing yards to Baltimore.  They also gave up 199 rushing yards to the Packers.  The Patriots rank 24th in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per rush this season.  They can be run on, and the Bears will have success moving the ball on the ground.

I think it's concerning for the Patriots that Mac Jones is back healthy now.  Bailey Zappe was awesome in his absence and the Patriots had something good going going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with him.  But Jones makes his return tonight, and he consistently makes terrible decisions with several interceptions being dropped already this season.  Jones will be rusty, and he has a lot of pressure on his shoulders.

Plays against home teams (New England) - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards per attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards per attempt in two consecutive games are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Chicago is also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and I like that they have extra prep time after playing last Thursday, especially with a first-year head coach.  Bet the Bears Monday.

15* Nets/Grizzlies Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 232

The Memphis Grizzlies are expected to be without their two best defenders in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Dillon Brooks tonight.  Jackson will be out until Christmas, while Brooks should make his return soon.  But the Grizzlies have been atrocious defensively this season thus far and have had to play small ball and try and outscore the opposition.

The Grizzlies rank 26th in defensive efficiency.  They are allowing 114.5 points per 100 possessions.  They have been playing at a fast pace this season ranking 5th in the NBA in pace.  After combining for 251 points with the Rockets, the Grizzlies just combined for 233 points with the Mavericks last time out.

The Nets will get up and down with the Grizzlies here as they rank 9th in the NBA in pace.  They are forming better chemistry with each passing game and just got a key role player in Joe Harris back and could get back their other sharp shooter in Seth Curry tonight.  This team will be tough to tame on offense when Durant, Irving, Simmons, Harris and Curry are all on the floor at the same time.  They'll still be terrible defensively, though.  The Nets rank 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 115.2 points per 100 possessions.

The Grizzlies beat the Nets 132-120 for 252 combined points in their final meeting last season.  The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings, including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Memphis.  The OVER is 10-1 in Memphis last 11 home games following a division game.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/76ers OVER 228

Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is an offensive guy that pays little attention to defense.  We saw how much the Mavericks improved on defense last season with the switch from Carlisle to Kidd despite having basically the same roster.  The Mavericks finished 6th in defensive efficiency last season after fishing in the 17th under Carlisle.

Last year, Indiana finished 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Blazers and Rockets were worse.  The Pacers will go as far as Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and rookie Bennedict Mathurin take them.  Those three are playing well to start the season, but the Pacers are without their two best big men in Myles Turner and Daniel Theis, so they have had to go small ball.

We saw how that worked out two games back when the Pacers lost 134-137 to the Spurs for 271 combined points.  Then on Saturday they beat the Pistons 124-115 for 239 combined points.  Indiana ranks 1st in the NBA in pace at 108.4 possessions per game.  They are 11th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency as well.

Philadelphia is going to be ready to blow the doors off the Pacers.  They have opened 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS.  Look for them to continue trying to poor it on late as they try and pick up their first win of the season.  The 76ers are 20th in defensive efficiency this season, which has been their biggest problem.  They just gave up 114 point to the lowly Spurs while getting upset as 13.5-point favorites.  They also allowed 126 points to the Celtics in their opener.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The Pacers and 76ers have combined for 229 or more points in six of those seven meetings.  They combined for 253, 253 and 231 points in their final three meetings last season, respectively.  The OVER is 9-1 in Pacers last 10 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5

The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season.  They also aren't looking to push the pace, especially with Chris Paul running the show for the Suns.  And now the Clippers trying to form some chemistry with Leonard, Wall, George and company all back healthy.  

Phoenix ranks 28th in pace through two games while the Clippers rank 16th.  The Clippers are also 3rd in defensive efficiency while the Suns are 14th.  The Suns are 29th in offensive efficiency while the Clippers are 27th.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Suns and Clippers with combined scores of 222, 199, 195 and 206 points.  In fact, seven of the last nine meetings between the Suns and Clippers have seen 218 or fewer combined points with the UNDER going 7-2 in those meetings.

The UNDER is 35-17-1 in Suns last 53 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Suns last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.  Phoenix is 12-1 UNDER in its last 13 games following a road loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8.5

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Pelicans opened the season with a 130-108 road win at the Nets as 3-point underdogs to get off and running this season.  Ingram had 28, Williamson 25 and McCollum 21 to lead the way as these guys are all gelling already.  They also got 15 points from Valanciunas and 16 from Trey Murphy III.

New Orleans came back with another 124-112 road win over the Hornets to cover as 7-point favorites.  Valanciunas had 30 points, Ingram 28, McCollum 21 and Williamson 16 in the win.  Now the Pelicans get to play their first home game, and fans will sell out the building in anticipation of getting to see Williamson back healthy.  It's going to be a raucous atmosphere in New Orleans tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Jazz, who are coming off two shocking upset wins over the Nuggets and Timberwolves to start the season.  Many expected the Jazz to be one of the worst teams in the NBA after trading away basically everyone but Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson.  While there is more talent on this team than they got credit for to start the season, they won't be able to hang with this Pelicans team tonight on the road in this atmosphere.  Utah is 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 road games.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

20* Seahawks/Chargers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 50

Seattle ranks 29th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game, 30th in total defense at 410.8 yards per game and 30th in allowing 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Chargers are going to put forth their best offensive performance of the season against the worst defense they have faced yet.  

The Chargers are expected to get Keenan Allen back this week, and Justin Herbert should have a monster game.  Seattle ranks 30th in allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt and has a ton of injuries in the secondary right now.  That's going to make it tough covering all these weapons for the Chargers.  Los Angeles also got good news this week with a couple starters healthy along the offensive line that they were missing last week against the Broncos.

Seattle ranks 9th in scoring offense this season at 24.3 points per game.  Geno Smith has the highest completion percentage in the NFL and some of the best weapons in the league with Lockett and Metcalf.  But the Seahawks want to run the ball, ranking 11th in rushing at 124.3 yards per game and 3rd in averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.

The Seahawks are going to be able to move the football on the ground at will against the soft interior of this Chargers defense.  In fact, the Chargers rank 31st in the NFL in allowing 5.6 yards per rush attempt.  The Browns rushed for 213 yards on them two weeks ago in a 30-28 victory in a shootout.  It should be a similar result in this game in a shootout as both teams' offensive strengths are the weaknesses of these defenses.

Seattle is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games following an upset win as an underdog.  The OVER is 9-3 in Chargers last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last six games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Bucs -11

The Carolina Panthers are going to be fade material the rest of the way.  I thought they'd get a one-game boost with a new head coach and a new quarterback last week.  Well that boost only lasted for a half.  The Panthers had a 10-7 lead against the Rams, but it was all downhill from there.  They got outscored 17-0 after halftime.

WR Robbie Anderson was seen arguing with coaches on the sideline and was kicked out, eventually getting traded to the Cardinals.  The Panthers managed just 203 total yards against the Rams.  Amazingly, Christian McCaffrey had 158 of those 203 yards, accounting for 78% of their yards from scrimmage.  Now McCaffrey is mired in trade rumors and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Panthers lighten his workload so he doesn't get hurt.

They are broken on offense and down to 4th and 5th stringers in PJ Walker and Jacob Eason at quarterback.  Their defense is good, but that defense has broken in the 2nd half of three consecutive games because they get tired from being on the field too much.  They gave up 23 points in the 2nd half to the Cardinals three weeks ago.  They gave up 20 points to the 49ers in the 2nd half two weeks ago.  And last week they were outscored 17-0 by the Rams after intermission.

The Bucs are pissed off after getting upset by the Steelers as double-digit favorites last week.  They settled for four field goals including three from 30 yards and in as they struggled in the red zone.  That's not going to happen again.  The Bucs are getting healthier each week and it's a good time to 'buy low' on them off that loss.

In fact, double-digit favorites that lost outright the previous week and are now double-digit favorites in their next game are a perfect 10-0 ATS since 2009.  The Bucs have owned the Panthers the past two seasons going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with all four wins by 14 points or more and by an average of 21.8 points per game.

I expect the Bucs to pour it on in the 2nd half against a fatigued Panthers defense yet again this week and to build on their lead.  The Panthers aren't capable of getting in the back door with their putrid offense.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Falcons/Bengals OVER 47

The Atlanta Falcons have an offense that teams just cannot figure out.  They rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game behind a run-heavy attack that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 165.2 yards per game.  They are going to be able to run the ball on the Bengals, who are wtihout two of their best run stoppers in DT Tupou and DE Gunter.  The Bengals gave up 228 rushing yards to the Saints last week.  They rank 23rd in allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season.

The Bengals got their offense going last week putting up 30 points on the Saints and have now scored 27 or more points in three of their last four games.  They will be able to take advantage of an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in allowing 385.2 yards per game.  The Falcons are missing two starters at cornerback, so Joe Burrow should have a big game through the air.  The Falcons rank 31st in allowing 281.2 passing yards per game.

It is supposed to be 72 degrees in Cincinnati Sunday and only 8 MPH winds, so it's perfect conditions for a shootout.  Both defenses are susceptible to the strengths of the opposing offenses, which is exactly what I like for an OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Cowboys OVER 49

The Dallas Cowboys have the potential to be the best offense in the NFL now with Dak Prescott returning this week.  They also have both CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz healthy, and just recently got back Michael Gallup.  Prescott comes back to his full arsenal of weapons.

The Cowboys will hang a big number on the Detroit Lions, who rank last in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 34.0 points per game.  The Lions are also last in the NFL in allowing 428.6 yards per game and last in the NFL in allowing 6.5 yards per play.  Simply put, they have the worst defense in the league.

The Lions should be able to hang with the Cowboys by matching them score for score.  They are expected to get back WR St. Brown from injury, and he was a monster before going down.  They could also get back RB Swift this week as they are coming off their bye with their offense getting healthier.  Just getting Jared Goff's favorite weapon back in St. Brown is massive.  He has 27 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns in three games this season.

Even with these injuries, the Lions still rank 3rd in scoring offense at 28.0 points per game.  They are also 2nd in total offense at 411.8 yards per game.  They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which has opened up big holes in the running game while also giving Goff the necessary time he needs to find open receivers for being a stationary QB.  Dallas does have good defensive numbers, but this will be their toughest test yet.

I think it's rare that you will see a total involving the Lions in the 40's the rest of the season, so we'll take advantage this week.  The OVER is 6-1 in Lions last seven games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Lions last six games vs. NFC opponents.  The OVER is 21-7 in Cowboys last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lions and Cowboys and they have combined for 50 or more points in eight of those nine meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +6.5

The Atlanta Falcons have an offense that teams just cannot figure out.  They rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game behind a run-heavy attack that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 165.2 yards per game.  They are going to be able to run the ball on the Bengals, who are without two of their best run stoppers in DT Tupou and DE Gunter.  The Bengals gave up 228 rushing yards to the Saints last week.  They rank 23rd in allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season.

The Falcons upset the 49ers 28-14 last week to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS this season.  They are the single-most underrated team in the NFL this season and continue to be this week as nearly touchdown underdogs to the Bengals.  They did take advantage of a banged up 49ers team, but it was impressive nonetheless.  They rushed for 168 yards and Marcus Mariota went 13-of-14 passing in the win.  They will be able to run all over this Cincinnati defense.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bengals, who have covered the spread in four consecutive games coming in.  They beat Joe Flacco and the Jets, beat a Miami team that lost starting QB Tua early, lost the Ravens and needed a last-second TD to beat the Saints and backup QB Andy Dalton last week.  They have taken advantage of facing a bunch of backup quarterbacks, and lost the only game they played against a legit team in the Ravens.  And the Bengals were actually outgained in three of those four games and only outgained the Jets by 2 yards.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Cincinnati) - after two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponents that committed one or fewer turnovers in three  consecutive games are 32-6 (84.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +9

This is a great spot to fade the Denver Nuggets.  They are coming off a 128-23 upset win at Golden State as 5-point underdogs last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

The Thunder are rested coming in on two days' rest after last being seen hanging tough with the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 108-115 road loss as 10.5-point underdogs on Wednesday.  The Thunder were the best covering team in the NBA last season as they were way more competitive than most expected.  They lost a lot of close games, and if they lose this one it won't be by double-digits.

The Thunder have had the Nuggets' numbers in recent meetings.  They have gone 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with the two losses coming by 4 and 6 points.  They also upset the Nuggets by 12 outright as 15.5-point dogs and by 14 as 6.5-point dogs.

The Thunder are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 road games.  Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days' rest.  The Thunder are 33-15-3 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win.  The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Denver is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -2

The Pittsburgh Panthers continue to be overvalued due to winning the ACC last year.  They are nowhere near the team they were last year.  They are 4-2 SU but just 2-4 ATS this season.  Their four wins have come against the four of the worst teams they played in Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Western Michigan and West Virginia.  They were fortunate to beat WVU, and they were upset as 21.5-point home favorites by Georgia Tech.

The Louisville Cardinals have lost to Syracuse, Florida State and Boston College.  The BC loss was bad, but it's worth noting star QB Malik Cunningham got injured in that game otherwise they probably would have won.  He sat out their last game and they were still able to dominate Virginia 34-17.  The 20-14 win over UCF earlier this season looks even better today.

Now Cunningham returns following a bye week and the Cardinals are going to be a dangerous team the rest of the way.  I think they are better than Pitt, thus they should be more than a 2-point favorite here.  And this will be just Pitt's second road game of the season.  Their first came at Western Michigan, one of the worst teams in the MAC.  This is a big step up in class for them and their toughest game outside of a home loss to Tennessee.

Louisville has played the 41st-ranked schedule in the country while Pitt has played the 80th.  That difference in strength of schedule is a big one.  This will also be a night game in Louisville with the defending ACC champs coming to town, so it's going to be an electric atmosphere and an even bigger home-field advantage for the Cardinals.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Pittsburgh) - a good offensive team scoring 34 or more points per game against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) - after playing a game where 60 or more points were scored are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

20* Padres/Phillies NLCS No-Brainer on OVER 8

Look for a similar outburst to Game 2 when the Phillies and Padres combined for 13 runs.  These are the worst two starters for their respective teams thus far in this series, and the bats for both teams will get going in Game 4 tonight.

Mike Clevinger is 7-8 with a 4.46 ERA in 23 starts this season, including 4-5 with a 5.68 ERA in 14 road starts.  Clevinger is 1-1 with a 7.10 ERA in his last three starts.  He allowed 5 runs, 4 earned, and 8 base runners in 2 2/3 innings in his lone playoff start against the Dodgers this season.

Bailey Falter is 6-3 with a 3.76 ERA in 16 starts this season.  But Falter has 'faltered' at home, going 3-2 with a 5.56 ERA in seven starts while allowing 8 homers and 21 earned runs in 34 innings.  The Padres will get into this Philadelphia bullpen early.

The OVER is 7-1-1 in Padres last nine road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 8-3-1 in Padres last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in Phillies last six home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Pacers OVER 229

Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is an offensive guy that pays little attention to defense.  We saw how much the Mavericks improved on defense last season with the switch from Carlisle to Kidd despite having basically the same roster.  The Mavericks finished 6th in defensive efficiency last season after fishing in the 17th under Carlisle.

Last year, Indiana finished 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Blazers and Rockets were worse.  The Pacers will go as far as Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and rookie Bennedict Mathurin take them.  Those three are playing well to start the season, but the Pacers are without their two best big men in Myles Turner and Daniel Theis, so they have had to go small ball.

We saw how that worked out last night when the Pacers lost 134-137 to the Spurs for 271 combined points.  I'm shocked this total is in the 220's as the Pacers are the ultimate 'OVER' team, playing at a fast pace and playing little defense.  Now they face another young, up and coming team in the Pistons that will enjoy getting up and down the floor with them.  The Pistons just gave up 130 points to the Knicks last night, who aren't known for being an offensive juggernaut.

The Pistons and Pacers combined for 238 and 235 points in two of their final three meetings last season.  The OVER is 6-0 in Pistons last six games overall.  The OVER is 8-1 in Pacers last nine games overall.  The OVER is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Indiana.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico +11

Fresno State is a team that has failed to meet expectations this season.  Those re-hires usually don't work unless you're Bill Snyder and Kansas State.  That has been the case here.  They lost DeBoer to Washington and brought back Jeff Tedford.  After opening with a 35-7 win over Cal Poly, the Bulldogs went on to lose four consecutive games and are just 1-5 ATS this season.

They were at least competitive with star QB Jake Haener while he was healthy, but he was injured against USC and the Bulldogs haven't been the same since.  He's simply irreplaceable.  They lost 45-17 to USC, went on to lose 19-14 at UConn as 23-point favorites, and were blasted 40-20 at Boise State as 9-point dogs.  Both of those teams were struggling previously, and UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.

Give the Bulldogs credit for beating San Jose State 17-10 as 7.5-point underdogs last week, but now they are overvalued as double-digit road favorites at New Mexico this week.  This offense cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number.  They have averaged just 17.0 points per game in their last four games,  and just 251.3 total yards per game in their last three games without Haener.  Backup QB Logan Fife has a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio in Haener's place.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on New Mexico after an upset 9-21 loss to rival New Mexico State as a 7-point favorite.  That was a misleading final as the Lobos actually outgained the Aggies by 44 yards and held them to 269 yards.  This is a legit New Mexico defense that will hold Fresno in check to be able to cover this inflated number.  The Lobos rank 22nd in the country in total defense, allowing just 329.7 yards per game.

The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They should not be double-digit road favorites here given their current state.  New Mexico upset UTEP, crushed Maine 41-0 and hung tough with Boise (17-point loss), UNLV (11-point loss) and Wyoming (13-point loss).  The only team to blow them out was LSU.  Roll with New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UTEP +4.5

I love the spot for UTEP this week.  They are coming off a bye after playing seven consecutive games to start the season.  They were playing well upsetting Boise 27-10 as 16.5-point dogs and topping Charlotte 41-35 as 3.5-point road favorites in their previous two games before running out of gas in a 31-41 loss at Louisiana Tech, which was coming off a bye.

That was one of the most misleading finals of the season as well.  UTEP racked up 501 total yards on Louisiana Tech and outgained them by 121 yards.  If they won that game like they should have, they would not be home underdogs to Florida Atlantic this week.  And what has FAU done lately to deserve this kind of respect?

The Owls are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 26 to UCF, hung tough against Purdue and a backup QB, lost by 17 at North Texas and only won 17-14 at home over Rice last week as 5-point favorites.  Keep in mind they also lost to a bad Ohio team as road favorites earlier this season.  Their three wins have come against Charlotte, FCS SE Louisiana and Rice all at home.  They are 0-3 SU on the road this season.

UTEP wants revenge from a 25-28 road loss at Florida Atlantic last season to add to their motivation.  They deserved to win that game as they outgained FAU 438 to 280, or by 158 total yards.  The spot favors the Miners off a bye, and the motivational angle with revenge favors the Miners as well.  Plus they are probably the better team this season anyway, especially when you look at how these teams are playing of late.

FAU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win, and 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a victory.  The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games.  The Miners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.  Roll with UTEP Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on North Texas +10

North Texas has been very impressive the last three games they have played and are flying under the radar.  They have what it takes to hang with UTSA in this Conference USA showdown Saturday.  It's a great spot for them and a terrible one for UTSA.

North Texas only lost 34-44 at Memphis as 13-point dogs in what was a misleading final three games back.  They actually outgained Memphis 473 to 344 in that game, or by 139 total yards.  Two games ago they won 45-28 at home against Florida Atlantic with 481 total yards.  And last week they won 47-27 at home over Louisiana Tech with 671 total yards.

This North Texas offense can keep them in every game as they will never be out of this one.  The Mean Green are putting up 36.1 points per game, 504 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  They are also fresh and ready to go after having a bye two weeks ago.  They are quietly contenders in C-USA this season, and they will give UTSA all they want and more Saturday.

Conversely, UTSA will be playing for an 8th consecutive week to start the season.  The Roadrunners started showing signs of fatigue last week when they only beat FIU 30-10 as 33-point favorites.  Many have FIU as the single-worst FBS team in the country, right alongside UMass.  Now UTSA could easily be looking ahead to their next game against UAB, which could decide the C-USA title.  Either way, UTSA has been overvalued due to all their past success in recent seasons, going just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Plays on any team (North Texas) - an excellent rushing team averaging 4.8 yards per carry or more against a poor rush defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPC) after 7-plus games, after outrushing their last opponent by 125 yards or more are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

North Texas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher.  The Mean Green are 8-0 ATS in their last eight conference games.  North Texas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Roadrunners are 1-7 ATS In their last eight games following a win.  Take North Texas Saturday.

15* UCLA/Oregon FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +6.5

What more does UCLA have to do to prove they are for real?  They are 6-0 this season and just handled both Washington and Utah in their last two games.  They beat Washington 40-32 and Utah 42-32, a Utah team that many feel is the best in the Pac-12.  They racked up 502 total yards on a very good Utah defense.

I think UCLA is the better team and should not be catching nearly a touchdown against Oregon.  This game should be lined between the 3's worst case.  Oregon hasn't beaten anyone.  The Ducks are 5-1 this season with their five wins coming against Eastern Washington, Arizona, Stanford, Washington State and BYU.  When they really stepped up in class, they lost 49-3 to Georgia.  Keep in mind they were fortunate to escape with a 44-41 win over Washington State, too.

The numbers indicate the Bruins are the better team, too.  The Bruins average 7.2 yards per play on offense and allow just 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by a whopping 2.2 yards per play.  Oregon averages 7.0 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play.  While still solid, those numbers don't compare to UCLA.

The Bruins have not forgotten their heartbreaking losses to the Ducks the past two seasons.  They lost 38-35 as 18.5-point dogs in 2020 and 34-31 as 1-point favorites last season.  This is the ultimate revenge game after two consecutive 3-point losses in this series.  And it's even more evidence this game should be lined closer to PK.

UCLA is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after playing a home games.  The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.  UCLA is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.  Take UCLA Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois -2.5

Northern Illinois won the MAC last season out of nowhere.  Expectations were high this season with 18 returning starters.  Unfortunately, they haven't won the close games like they did last year and have gotten off to a 2-5 start.  Four of the five losses came by 10 points or fewer.  Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Huskies this week.

It also hasn't helped that starting QB Rocky Lombardi has missed three of the losses due to injury.  Well, Lombardi returned last week to lead the Huskies to a dominant 39-10 upset victory at Eastern Michigan.  This offense is much more explosive with Lombardi in the lineup.  They outgained the Eagles by 184 yards in a dominant victory and their best defensive effort of the season.

Now they face an Ohio team coming off a misleading 33-14 win at Western Michigan.  The Broncos turned the ball over six times to hand the Bobcats the victory.  It's time to 'sell high' on Ohio after going 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were outgained by 286 yards by Ken State in a 7-point loss.  They gave up 478 yards to a bad Akron team two games back.  And last week they only outgained Western Michigan by 50 yards.

Ohio has one of the worst defenses in the country and cannot be trusted as a result.  The Bobcats allow 36.9 points per game, 528 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play on the season.  They are allowing 109 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play more than their opponents typically average on offense.  Northern Illinois has at least been respectable defensively, allowing 395 yards per game this season.

Plays against home underdogs (Ohio) - with a horrible scoring defense allowing 35 or more points per game, after scoring 31 points or more in two consecutive games are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

NIU is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning record.  NIU is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an upset win as an underdog by 10 or more points.  Thomas Hammock is 8-0 ATS in road games following one or more consecutive unders as the coach of NIU.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Huskies.  Bet Northern Illinois Saturday.

20* Syracuse/Clemson ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 50

Clemson and Georgia Tech have two of the best defenses in the country this season.  Syracuse is off to a 6-0 start largely due to their defense.  They rank 6th in the country in scoring defense allowing 13.2 points per game.  They are also 8th in total defense allowing 268.8 yards per game.

Clemson is 26th in scoring defense at 19.7 points per game.  They are also 32nd in total defense at 341.7 yards per game.  They have played some really good offenses in Wake Forest, Florida State, NC State and Louisiana Tech already.  Syracuse may be the 5th-best offense they have faced this season.  They will shut down the Orange, who haven't seen a defense nearly as good as this Clemson stop unit.

Last year, Clemson beat Syracuse 17-14 for just 31 combined points. Four of the last five meetings have seen 51 or fewer combined points. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Both teams are run-heavy which will keep the clock moving.  Syracuse runs the ball 60% of the time and averages just 65 plays per game on offense, which is one of the lowest marks in the country.  Clemson runs the ball on 53% of the time.

Dino Babers is 9-1 UNDER in road games off a conference home win as a head coach.  Syracuse is 7-0 in its last seven games UNDER off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more.  Clemson is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 home games against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  Points will be hard to come by in this battle of unbeatens.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* UAB/Western Kentucky C-USA No-Brainer on UAB ML +125

I like the spot and the matchup for the UAB Blazers and I expect them to pull off the upset over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers as a result.  UAB has only played six games this season while Western Kentucky has already played seven games.  The Blazers will be the fresher team, especially with this being a short week.

These teams have a common opponent in Middle Tennessee.  UAB crush Middle Tennessee 41-14 and outgained them by 245 yards while racking up 581 total yards.  Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee 35-17 and outgained them by 152 yards while racking up 443 total yards.  It was a comfortable win for the Hilltoppers, but not as dominant as UAB.

UAB rushes for 246 yards per game and 5.9 per carry.  They are going to be able to run on this Western Kentucky defense.  They also have an efficient passing game, completing 64.7% for 206 yards per game and 9.1 yards per attempt.  And I really like this UAB defense, which holds opponents to 17.3 points per game, 320 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.

Western Kentucky relies heavily on throwing the football to score points.  They average 345 passing yards per game.  Well, UAB has one of the best pass defenses in the country.  The Blazers are holding opponents to 176 passing yards per game and 5.4 per attempt, holding them to 82 passing yards per game and 1.5 per attempt less than their season averages.

UAB is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following a conference win.  The Blazers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  UAB is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Blazers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet UAB on the Money Line Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -7

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Pelicans opened the season with a 130-108 road win at the Nets as 3-point underdogs to get off and running this season.  Ingram had 28, Williamson 25 and McCollum 21 to lead the way as these guys are all gelling already.  They also got 15 points from Valanciunas and 16 from Trey Murphy III.

The Charlotte Hornets are without LaMelo Ball to start the season.  They go as he goes, especially offensively.  Points will be hard to come by for the Hornets until he returns as he averaged 20.1 points and 7.6 assists per game last season.  They are also missing Miles Bridges, who was charged with three counts of domestic violence.  He averaged 20.2 points per game and 7.0 rebounds per game last season.

I do like the re-hiring of Steve Clifford, who was the head coach of the Hornets from 2013 to 2018.  He says he wants to keep the up-tempo offense, but that's going to be hard without Ball tonight.  Charlotte averaged just 98.8 points per game in the preseason.  Their 129-102 win over the Spurs in the opener was more to do with San Antonio being the worst team in the NBA than anything.  They will get exposed here in this big step up in class, while the Pelicans take a big step down in competition after facing the Nets.

New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Charlotte.  Take the Pelicans in a blowout Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards ML -115

The Washington Wizards have a healthy Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis to start the season.  Porzingis flashed his massive potential with 22.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game in 17 games with the Wizards after getting traded last season.  They added a true PG in Monte Morris from Denver, while also getting instant offense from Will Barton of the Nuggets.

It was an impressive 114-107 road win for the Wizards over the Pacers in their opener.  Beal had 23 points, Kyle Kuzma 22, Porzingis 15 and Barton 17 in the opener.  They held the Pacers to just 40% shooting for the game behind a great defensive effort as well.

The Bulls are a potent team when healthy, but that's not the case to start the season.  They were terrible after losing Lonzo Ball last season, and he remains out to start this season.  They are also without Zach LaVine Friday.  The Bulls are getting respect for their upset win at Miami in the opener, but Miami isn't as strong this season, and DeRozan isn't going to shoot as well as he did when he had 37 points on 14-of-22 shooting to lead the upset.  Roll with the Wizards Friday.

20* Clippers/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are among the favorites to win the NBA title this season for good reason.  Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are back healthy together.  But they are loaded with depth as well by adding John Wall to go along with Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, Ivaca Zubac, Norman Powell, Luke Kennard, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington and Terrence Mann.  No team has two bigger stars together, and no team has more depth than the Clippers.

The Lakers missed the playoffs last year and I wouldn't be surprised if they miss the playoffs again this season.  Anthony Davis and LeBron James cannot stay healthy, and they don't have the help around them they need.  Both are already banged up.  They will be starting alongside Russell Westbrook, Patrick Beverly and Lonnie Walker IV.

Westbrook is a terrible fit for this team because he needs the ball in his hand so much and can't make open shots.  In fact, the Lakers are probably the worst shooting team in the NBA this season.  They have no depth with Austin Reaves, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damian Jones and Kendrick Nunn their top options off the bench now with key 6th man Dennis Schroder out with an injury.

The Lakers lost 123-109 to the Warriors in their opener.  They shot just 43% as a team and committed 21 turnovers.  That includes 10-of-40 (25%) from 3-point range.  Teams can continue to sag into the paint and force them to try and beat them from 3, which they cannot do.

The Clippers are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lakers.  They one-sided nature of this series continues tonight with a blowout victory by the Clippers.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

20* Saints/Cardinals NFC No-Brainer on New Orleans +2.5

Note: I was waiting for a +3 on the site to release this pick.  It hasn't come yet.  I did personally bet the Saints +3 (-115) at DraftKings this morning.  I recommend waiting as long as you can for a +3 (-120) or better to bet this pick, but I still would bet it at +2.5 if you can't get the +3.  I expect the Saints to win this game outright.

The New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals are both 2-4 this season.  The difference is the Saints are better than their 2-4 record would indicate, while the Cardinals are just as bad as their 2-4 record and could be worse.

The Cardinals were never in the game in their four losses, a 23-point loss to the Chiefs, an 8-point loss to the Rams, trailed the Eagles 14-0 before coming on late, and their 10-point loss to the Seahawks.  The Seahawks have one of the worst defenses in the league, and the Cardinals didn't score a single offensive touchdown in their 19-9 defeat last week.

The two wins weren't impressive, either.  They erased a 7-point halftime deficit to beat the Panthers, who are 1-5 this season and broken.  They needed a 16-point second half comeback and help from the refs to beat the Raiders, who are 1-4.  So their two wins have come against teams that are a combined 2-9 this season.

The Cardinals are now getting love for the fact that they get DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension.  But they are basically trading him out for Marquise Brown, who has become Kyler Murray's favorite target and will be missed after suffering an injury against the Seahawks that will keep him out at least a month.  

Brown has 43 receptions, 485 yards and three touchdowns this season and is the security blanket for Murray.  I don't expect the chemistry to be great between Murray and Hopkins in his first game back on a short week.  This offense is still broken, and a big reason why is injuries to the offensive line and at running back as well for the Cardinals.

The Saints are 2-4 despite outgaining four of their six opponents, and the two games they got outgained were by 6 and 31 yards.  They average 382 yards per game on offense and only give up 343 yards per game on defense, actually outgaining opponents by 39 yards per game.  Despite being hampered by injuries on offense, it hasn't slowed them down one bit, and they get WR Chris Olave back this week.

The Saints put up 25 points on the Vikings, 39 points on the Seahawks and 26 points on the Bengals the last three weeks.  They have been able to run the football at will on everyone, averaging 152 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry.  Expect a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara both rushing and receiving in this one.  Andy Dalton is proving he is still a starting-caliber QB in this league.

I know the Saints don't have the best defensive numbers yet, but they have also played a brutal schedule of opposing offenses.  This will be the worst offense they have faced all season outside of the Panthers, who they held to 293 total yards.  The Cardinals are managing just 19.0 points per game, 346 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.

Arizona is 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games, yet it is a favorite here.  The Cardinals are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games as favorites of 7 points or less.  The Saints are 43-26 ATS in their last 69 road games off a home loss.  New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. poor defenses that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.  Arizona is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. good rushing teams that average 5.0 or more yards per carry.  The Saints are 38-16 ATS in their last 54 road games.

Plays on underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - after a game where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Saints Thursday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia Tech -3

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have played the 6th-toughest schedule in the country this season.  They have been an underdog in five of six games and a dog of 17 or more four times.  They have managed to get through it at 3-3 and have covered three straight coming in.

The sign of things to come was the misleading 27-10 loss to UCF as 21-point dogs.  They outgained the Knights 452 to 333, or by 119 total yards.  That showed what they were capable of, and that result looks even better now after UCF went on to blow out SMU and Temple the last two weeks since.

Georgia Tech then went on the road and upset Pittsburgh 26-21 as a 21.5-point underdogs.  And last time out they could have easily let down, instead they beat Duke 23-20 (OT) as a 3.5-point dog.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  The Yellow Jackets outgained the Blue Devils 412 to 278, or by 134 total yards.

That gives these teams a common opponent in Duke.  Virginia lost 17-38 to Duke and was held to just 295 yards while getting outgained by 82 yards.  The Cavaliers went on to lose 34-17 as a home favorite to Louisville and their backup quarterback while getting outgained by 154 yards.  The Cavaliers are now 2-4 this season with their only two wins coming at home against FCS Richmond and Old Dominion (16-14).

Tony Elliott is in over his head in his first season at Virginia this year.  They have a good QB in Brennan Armstrong, but their offensive line is terrible with five new starters and he doesn't have much time to do anything.  It won't get any easier against this underrated Georgia Tech defense that is holding opponents to 5.2 yards per play that average 6.3 per play, holding them to 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.

The Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Yellow Jackets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet Georgia Tech Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -1.5

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA heading into the 2022-23 season due to not making the playoffs for 16 consecutive seasons.  They have a great chance to end that drought as they hired Mike Brown, who was the top assistant with the Golden State Warriors and has plenty of experience.  It was probably the best hire of the offseason.

Brown has loads of talent to work with as De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Harrison Barnes and rookie Keegan Murray lead the way.  I know Murray will miss the opener, but I still believe the Kings have what it takes to get the job done.  No team was more impressive in the preseason than the Kings, who went 4-0 while outscoring opponents 117.3 to 89.8, or by an average of 27.5 points per game.   They added SG Kevin Huerter, and the depth is good with Malik Monk, Terence Davis, Richaun Holmes, KZ Okpala and Davion Mitchell coming off the bench.

I like Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons for the Blazers.  The problem is they don't have much help outside of those three.  That was evident last year when the Blazers went 2-21 after the All-Star Break with 11 of those losses by at least 25 points.  They are without Gary Payton II to start the season.  Josh Hart, Nassir Little and Jusuf Nurkic are all replacement-level players who are going to be playing too many minutes with two of them starting.

The Blazers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Portland went 0-4 in the preseason against NBA teams and lost by 30 to this same Kings team.  They also lost by 33 to the Warriors and by 17 to the Jazz, who are terrible.  Chauncey Billups may just be a bust of a head coach even though he has a great reputation.  Take the Kings Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans battled back from a 3-16 start last season to win two play-in games against the Spurs and Clippers before giving the top-seeded Suns a six-game series.  They are a team on the rise and will be even better this season.

They played better than .500 ball after trading for C.J. McCollum last season.  He, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are back.  Zion Williamson is finally healthy to start the season and looking like he's in the best shape of his life.  Ingram, McCollum and Williamson have all averaged at least 23 points per game in their careers.

The Brooklyn Nets were swept in four games by the Celtics last season and were a major disappointment.  They are getting a lot of respect to start this season, but it's unwarranted.  It's going to take some time for Ben Simmons to gel with Durant and Irving.  And there's not much depth behind those three, especially with their two key role players in Seth Curry and Joe Harris out for the season opener.

Brooklyn is 3-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 6-28-1 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Take the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* Georgia State/App State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Georgia State +10

A lot was expected out of Georgia State after going 8-5 last season and returning 15 starters, including all of their studs on offense.  But a 2-4 start this season currently has them undervalued.  We'll take advantage and back them as 10-point underdogs to Appalachian State Wednesday night in this 'buy low' spot.

The Panthers have gotten it together of late after an 0-4 start.  They beat Army 31-14 on the road as 9-point underdogs, and followed it up with a 41-33 home win over Georgia Southern as 2.5-point favorites.  That's the same Georgia Southern team that just upset James Madison to hand the Dukes their first loss of the season.

Appalachian State is down this season and has been overvalued since that upset win over Texas A&M.  The Mountaineers are just 3-3 on the season.  They only have one win by more than 4 points this year, and that came against The Citadel as a 38.5-point favorite.  They were just upset as 19-point favorites against Texas State last time out, losing outright 36-24.

Georgia State is a great rushing team, averaging 234 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  Appalachian State has allowed 172 or more rushing yards three times this season.  The Panthers will be able to run the football on them to set up play-action.  They are also throwing for 202 yards per game and 8.1 yards per pass with a dynamic offense this season.

Georgia State's defense is better than it gets credit for, too.  The Panthers have faced a brutal schedule of opposing offenses.  They give up 6.0 yards per play against team that average 6.5 yards per play, so they are actually holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  

Keep in mind Georgia State has played such a tough schedule that they were underdogs in four of five games, so they have actually met expectations at 2-4.  App State has been favored in five of six games, yet has gone just 3-3.  The Mountaineers continue to be overvalued as double-digit favorites this week.

The Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Georgia State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.  Appalachian State is 0-5 ATS in its last five conference games.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Georgia State is 7-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or higher.  Bet Georgia State Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Pacers OVER 227.5

Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is an offensive guy that pays little attention to defense.  We saw how much the Mavericks improved on defense last season with the switch from Carlisle to Kidd despite having basically the same roster.  The Mavericks finished 6th in defensive efficiency last season after fishing in the 17th under Carlisle.

Last year, Indiana finished 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.9 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Blazers and Rockets were worse.  Now they face a Washington team in the opener that finished 25th in defensive efficiency last season.

The Pacers will go as far as Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and Myles Turner take them.  They added Rookie of the Year candidate Bennedict Mathurin in the draft.  I think this team will be just fine offensively, but again they don't have many plus defenders.  And Carlisle clearly isn't concerned with them improving on that end.

The Wizards have a healthy Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis to start the season.  Porzingis flashed his massive potential with 22.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game in 17 games with the Wizards after getting traded.  They added a true PG in Monte Morris from Denver, while also getting instant offense from Will Barton of the Nuggets.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Wizards and Pacers.  They have combined for 256 or more points in six of those eight meetings.  The OVER is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Pacers last seven games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* MLB Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Diego Padres -115

Playoff Blake Snell is much different than regular season Blake Snell.  He has been in playoff mode for a couple months now and has been absolutely dominant.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts, including one earned run or fewer in seven of those.  

Snell has posted a 1.35 ERA in his last five starts while allowing just 4 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings with 36 K's to boot.  Snell has a 2.89 ERA while allowing just 14 earned runs in 43 2/3 innings in his career in the postseason.  He will come up clutch and get the Padres a win here in Game 2 after dropping Game 1.

Aaron Nola is getting too much respect here.  He has been dominant down the stretch at times as well, but not as consistently as Snell.  Nola has allowed 4 earned runs or more in three of his last nine starts.  Nola has allowed 9 earned runs in 21 innings in his last three starts against the Padres for a 3.86 ERA as well.

The Padres are a perfect 5-0 in their last five games following a loss and will bounce back in a big way today behind Snell.  Bet the Padres in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* Phillies/Padres NLCS ANNIHILATOR on San Diego -110

The San Diego Padres just beat a pair of 100-win teams in the Mets and Dodgers to get here.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS, and we are getting them at basically even money in Game 1, which is good value.

Yu Darvish is 18-8 with a 3.09 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in 32 starts this season.  Darvish has been at his best at home, going 7-3 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in 13 home starts.  He is also 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in seven career starts against Philadelphia.

Darvish has allowed just 3 earned runs in 13 innings in two starts against the Phillies in 2022.  He'll be opposed by Zack Wheeler, who has been at his worst on the road this season at 6-5 with a 3.61 ERA in 15 starts away from home.

The Padres are 18-3 in their last 21 games following an off day.  The Padres are 15-4 in Darvish's last 19 starts with a total of 7 or less.  Take the Padres in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Celtics 2022 NBA Season Opener on Boston -2.5

There has been a lot of negative media attention surrounding the Boston Celtics this offseason due to the Ime Udoka suspension.  I think there will be value on the Celtics in the early going because of it, especially in the opener as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers.

Now 34-year-old Joe Mazzulla becomes the youngest coach in the league.  I like everything I've heard from him and the players since the suspension and they'll be just fine.  Few teams have a deeper roster than the Celtics, plus they added Malcolm Brogdon who averaged 19.1 points and 5.9 assists last season in Indiana.  They only real key loss is Robert Williams due to injury.

Conversely, there is a ton of hype surrounding the Philadelphia 76ers this offseason.  That's because James Harden finally came into a training camp in shape.  Well, Harden is still past his prime, and it's sad that people celebrate a player actually coming into camp in shape.  Harden is one of the most overrated players in the NBA, in shape or not.  

The 76ers do not have the depth that the Celtics do this season.  And I would take Boston's starting five over that of Philadelphia as well.  The Celtics are loaded with Tatum, Brown, Brogdon, Smart and Horford.  They are going to be tough to tame on offense, and all are plus defenders.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

20* Broncos/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +4.5

The Denver Broncos had massive expectations coming into the season with the addition of Russell Westbrook.  Their 2-3 start this season has them as one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL as a result.  But now we get the opportunity to 'buy low' on the Broncos, who could easily be 4-1 instead of 2-3.  It seems as though the mistakes are easily correctable.

The Broncos outgained the Colts by 69 yards last week and should have won.  They were in the red zone looking to go up 10 late to put the game away, but Wilson threw a bad INT in the end zone.  The Colts would go on to tie the game in the final seconds and win it in OT.  That was the second game they gave away this season.  They also lost 17-16 to the Seahawks despite outgaining them by 180 yards.

The Broncos have the numbers of a 4-1 team and not a 2-3 team.  They rank 18th in total offense at 343.6 yards per game and have had success running the football, they just haven't been able to turn it into points with their red zone struggles.  They rank 3rd in total defense, allowing 289.0 yards per game.  So they are outgaining teams by 54.6 yards per game on the season, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.

The Chargers are 3-2 this season and 4-1 ATS thus far.  It's time to 'sell high' on them because of this start.  They are only outgaining teams by 22.2 yards per game on the season.  Their defense is a problem as they are giving up 27.2 points per game, 368.2 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 30th in scoring defense, 23rd in total defense and 31st in yards per play allowed.  That's not the sign of an elite team.  I'll gladly back the much better defensive team in the Broncos.

Keep in mind the three wins for the Chargers were against the Raiders, Texans and Browns.  They were life and death in the 4th quarter with all three teams.  They have a problem putting teams away because of their poor defense, and that's why they can't be laying 4.5 points here.  Not having Joey Bosa really hurts them defensively, and it looks as though WR Keenan Allen will sit out again, and WR Mike Williams is also questionable.

I love the spot for the Broncos, too.  They have extended rest to recover and get ready for this game after playing last Thursday, and now get an extra day even with this being Monday Night Football.  They have a lot of guys questionable on the injury report, so this break came at the right time.  It's also extra time for them to correct their mistakes on offense, and I fully expect one of their best efforts of the season Monday night.

The Broncos would be wise to utilize their running game more.  It has been the strength of their offense, and it is the weakness of this Chargers defense.  Wilson needs to swallow his pride and trust his teammates.  The Broncos have rushed for over 100 yards in four of five games this season.  They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks dead last (32nd) in yards per carry (5.8) allowed.

This is also a great matchup for Denver's defense.  The Chargers rely heavily on Justin Herbert to move the ball through the air.  Well, the Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed at only 176.6 per game.  They are also 2nd in the NFL in allowing just 5.2 yards per pass attempt.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Denver) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four games are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is a classic 'buy low' spot on the Broncos and a 'sell high' spot on the Chargers based on recent results.  This line should be much closer to PK, especially when you consider the Chargers have zero home-field advantage.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

20* Cowboys/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +6

Cooper Rush is now 5-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2.  He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  He crushed the Commanders 25-10.  And last week, he led the 22-10 road win over the defending Super Bowl champion Rams as 5.5-point underdogs.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They allow just 14.4 points per game, 311.4 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 5th in yards per play allowed this season.

I have backed the Cowboys each of the last three weeks, and I'm not about to jump off the bandwagon now.  The betting public and the oddsmakers have not caught up with how good this team is, and that's the case again this week as they are catching 6 points against the Eagles.  This line should only be Philadelphia -3 according to my power rankings, so we are getting a ton of value.

A big reason I keep backing the Cowboys is their dominant defensive line.  Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks averaging 4.0 per game with 20 total in five games.  Well, the Eagles have four starters injured on the offensive line.  All four may actually play, but they will have their hands full with this Dallas defensive line.

The Cowboys have gotten back to running the football, which is when they have been at their best over the past several seasons.  They rushed for 176 yards on the Giants and 163 yards on the Rams in two of their last three victories.  The weakness of the Eagles is defending the run.  They actually rank just 25th in the NFL in allowing 5.0 yards per carry this season.  The Cowboys can continue to move the ball on the ground with Zeke and Pollard, opening up play-action for Rush and making things easier on him.  He is making all the throws he needs to for this team to keep winning.

The Eagles are having a hard time putting teams away this season.  They let the Lions come back in a 3-point victory, and they let the Cardinals come back in another 3-point victory.  They tried to let the Vikings come back, but Kirk Cousins kept turning the ball over.  The Jaguars also had a chance to tie the game late in an 8-point loss.  Their only complete performance was against the Commanders in a 24-8 victory, who are probably the worst team in the NFL.  The Eagles are grossly overvalued right now due to their 5-0 start, so it's time to 'sell high' on them.

The Cowboys own the Eagles, going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  They have won the last three meetings all by 20 points or more.  Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Cowboys are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 vs. NFC East opponents, including 8-0 ATS over the last two seasons.  Dallas is 11-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Yankees/Guardians ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +165

The Cleveland Guardians have been the hottest team in baseball down the stretch.  They have gone 26-6 in their last 32 games overall and aren't intimidated by the Yankees.  They should not be home underdogs in Game 4 of this series tonight, especially with the Yankees reeling after blowing a 5-3 lead in the 9th inning last night.  The Guardians have all the momentum now.

Cal Quantrill is one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season.  He is 15-6 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 33 starts, including a perfect 9-0 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 19 home starts.  The Guardians are 16-2 in Quantrill's last 18 starts overall.

Gerrit Cole has come up short in the postseason before and is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He is 14-8 with an identical 3.43 ERA to Quantrill, including a 3.81 ERA in 17 road starts this season.  I'll gladly take the value with the home team today.  Bet the Guardians in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Bills/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Buffalo -2.5

The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 this season and should be 5-0.  Their lone loss came at Miami by 2 when they outgained the Dolphins by 285 total yards.  The Bills are the best team in the NFL this season when you look at the numbers.  They will go into Kansas City and come out with a win in a game they simply want more than the Chiefs after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them the past two seasons.

We saw the same thing happen last year.  After losing 24-38 to Kansas City in the playoffs in 2020-21, the Bills came back and won 38-20 last season in Kansas City.  Unfortunately, they did not get home-field advantage in the playoffs like they planned, and they lost 36-42 (OT) at Kansas City in the playoffs.  They believe they would have gone on to win the Super Bowl had they won that game.  So winning this game is essentially to getting home-field advantage this time around in 2022-23.

The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in total offense at 440.4 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 260.4 yards per game, outgaining opponents by 180 yards per game, which is far and away the best mark in the league.  Buffalo is 1st in the NFL at 6.7 yards per play on offense, and 2nd in the NFL at 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.3 yards per play.  That is also far and away the best margin in the NFL this season.

You know this game means a lot to the Bills when they have been waiting to get some key players back from injury and they're 'all in' for this game now.  S Jordan Poyer, LB Tremaine Edmunds and CB Christian Benford are all listed without injury designations.  Poyer hasn't practiced since Week 2, Edmunds missed last week's game against the Steelers, and Benford is returning from a broken hand suffered in Week 3.  The Bills have been showing off their depth without some key guys this season, which is only going to help them in the long run.  It also makes it even more impressive the numbers they have put up to this point.

The Chiefs are 4-1 this season but have been a lot less impressive.  They had two good wins over the Cardinals and Bucs, but they probably should have lost to the Chargers in a 27-24 home win, were upset on the road by the terrible Colts, and last week survived a 30-29 thriller against the Raiders at home.  That game was on Monday Night Football, so they are on a short week now making this a terrible spot for them.  Meanwhile, the Bills were blowing out the Steelers 38-3 last week, so they are still very fresh for this game.

The Chiefs have some key injuries in the secondary with CB Fenton out, CB McDuffie questionable and S Cook out.  They already cannot stop the run, and now their secondary is in shambles, which is bad news facing this Bills offense.  The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in ever game this season and rank 24th in scoring defense at 25.0 points per game.  Conversely, the Bills have an elite defense, which is going to be the biggest difference in this game.  

I like that the Bills held Mark Andrews to 2 receptions for 15 yards against the Ravens a few weeks ago, and they are great about taking away an opposing team's best weapon.  They will focus in on stopping Travis Kelce, who had 4 touchdowns against the Raiders Monday night.  They will make Mahomes put trust in his other receivers, which he is still trying to form chemistry with this early in the season after losing Tyreke Hill.

Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  The Bills are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Bills want this game more, are the better team in the more favorable spot, and that will show Sunday.  Take the Bills.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5

I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week.  They fired head coach Matt Rhule after yet another loss to the 49ers on Sunday.  Teams in their first game with an interim head coach are 17-9 ATS since 2009.  They always seem to get a fresh start and come out with a big effort with their interim head coach in their first game with him.

Baker Mayfield is going to miss this game with an injury.  That's addition by subtraction.  This team has to be sick of his antics and knowing that he doesn't give them a chance to win.  In fact, Mayfield has the worst QBR of any QB through five games since Jamarcus Russell in 2005, which was the first season the QBR was invented.  QB Phillip Walker isn't the best backup, but the offense will be playing with a spring in its step with this change and it should benefit Walker getting a full week of practice to get ready.

This is more of a play against the Rams as it is a play on the Panthers.  I have successfully faded the Rams four times already this season as they are 1-4 ATS.  I did not play against them in their lone cover against the Cardinals.  So I'm 4-0 in Rams games this season, all four bets against them.  I have a great read on this team.  The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing, and the Rams are feeling the full effect of it.

It also doesn't help that the Rams cannot stay healthy.  Their offensive line is a mess due to injuries and losing a couple starters in the offseason, which is the biggest reason I have faded them the last two weeks against the 49ers and Cowboys, who both have dominant defensive lines.  Well, Carolina's strength is its defensive line, and this defense has played well as a whole this season.  

Now Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Hibgee have all popped up on the injury report as none of them practiced on Wednesday.  Matthew Stafford doesn't look right, and he certainly isn't comfortable playing behind this offensive line.  They cannot run the football, which is putting more pressure on Stafford to make plays.  They rank dead last in the NFL in averaging just 62.4 rushing yards per game.

The Rams simply continue to be overvalued week after week due to winning the Super Bowl last year.  Until the oddsmakers and betting public adjust, I'm going to keep fading this team.  They have no business being double-digit favorites even against the Panthers.  Carolina is 36-13 ATS in their last 49 games vs. poor offensive teams averaging 17 or fewer points per game.  The Rams are scoring just 16.0 points per game this season.

Plays against favorites (LA Rams) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Double-digit favorites this deep into the season that are .500 or worse are 33-52 ATS in their last 85 tries.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State -8.5

San Jose State looks like the cream of the crop in the Mountain West this season.  Remember, they won the Mountain West in 2020 before having a down 5-7 season last year.  But Brent Brennan is in his 6th season here and arguably the best head coach in the conference.  He has the Spartans back motivated to win another title in 2022.

San Jose State is off to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  Their only loss came 16-24 at Auburn in which they hung right with an SEC opponent.  They proceeded to beat Western Michigan by 28, Wyoming by 17 and UNLV by 33.  That win over UNLV was no joke as the Rebels had been pretty good up to that point, and Wyoming has been playing well also.

Now the Spartans will beat up on a Fresno State team that has failed to meet expectations.  Those re-hires usually don't work unless you're Bill Snyder and Kansas State.  That has been the case here.  They lost DeBoer to Washington and brought back Jeff Tedford.  After opening with a 35-7 win over Cal Poly, the Bulldogs have lost four consecutive games and are 0-5 ATS as well.

They were at least competitive with star QB Jake Haener while he was healthy, but he was injured against USC and the Bulldogs haven't been the same since.  He's simply irreplaceable.  They lost 45-17 to USC, went on to lose 19-14 at UConn as 23-point favorites, and were blasted 40-20 at Boise State as 9-point dogs.  Both of those teams were struggling previously, and UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.  San Jose State is far and away better than both teams.

Fresno State QB Logan Fife has been a disaster in Haener's place.  He has yet to throw a touchdown pass and has already thrown four interceptions.  He has also rushed for just 2 years on 20 attempts.  Fife and the Bulldogs will get nothing against this San Jose State defense, which is holding opponents to 14.0 points per game, 288 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.

Hawaii transfer Chandler Cordeiro has been awesome for the Spartans.  He has thrown for 1,308 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio through five games, while also rushing for 186 yards and six scores.  He leads a San Jose State offense that is averaging 28.8 points per game, 381 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play on the season.

The Spartans won't be afraid to run up the score, either.  They lost 40-9 at home to Haener and Fresno State last year and want revenge.  San Jose State is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  The Spartans are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 conference games.  The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

Plays on any team (San Jose State) - after allowing 17 points or less in three consecutive games against an opponent that is off a loss by 17 points or more are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Padres NLDS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -116

The Los Angeles Dodgers will bounce back following consecutive losses to the Padres to fall behind 2-1 in this series.  They have a big advantage on the mound today, and the experience advantage as the Padres aren't used to trying to close out a series.  That is the hardest game to win for inexperienced teams.

Tyler Anderson is 14-5 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in 28 starts this season for the Dodgers.  Anderson owns the Padres, going 6-3 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.060 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Padres in 2022.

Joe Musgrove is having a solid season overall, but he cannot figure out the Dodgers.  In fact, Musgrove is 0-6 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in nine career starts against them, having never beaten Los Angeles.  He has allowed at least 3 earned runs in six of his nine career starts against the Dodgers.  Roll with the Dodgers in Game 4 Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State +3.5

Clemson's 6-0 record has them overvalued while Florida State's back-to-back losses to fall to 4-2 has them undervalued this week.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on Clemson and a great time to 'buy low' on Florida State, so we have the perfect storm here to get value on the Seminoles as home underdogs.

The numbers tell me that Florida State is actually the better team this season and should not be the underdog.  The Seminoles have played the 20th-toughest schedule in the country, while Clemson has played the 75th-toughest.  That difference in strength of schedule when you compare the numbers of these teams will help you understand why I like Florida State so much in this game.

The Seminoles have elite numbers.  They are averaging 7.1 yards per play on offense and allowing just 4.8 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining teams by 2.3 yards per play on the season.  Clemson averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and allows 4.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play.  So Florida State is a full one yard per play better than Clemson and has played a much tougher schedule.  Yards per play are the most predictable stats in football when comparing how good teams are.  The Seminoles are elite in this category.

I like the fact that this is a night game in Tallahassee Saturday night with kickoff set for 7:30 EST.  It will be a raucous atmosphere with unbeaten Clemson coming to town.  The Tigers have escaped with some narrow victories over Wake Forest and NC State up to this point.  Their luck runs out in what will be their toughest test of the season to date Saturday night.

Clemson is 1-10 ATS when the total is 49.5 to 56 points over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 14 points or less.  Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* Yankees/Guardians ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +110

The Cleveland Guardians have been the hottest team in baseball down the stretch.  They have gone 25-6 in their last 31 games overall and aren't intimidated by the Yankees.  They should not be home underdogs in Game 3 of this series tonight.

Triston McKenzie is 11-10 with a 2.82 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in 31 starts this season, including 5-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in 14 home starts.  McKenzie is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in two career starts against the Yankees.  He pitched 7 shutout innings in his lone start against New York this season.  He pitched 6 shutout innings against the Rays in his first playoff start.

Luis Severino hasn't pitched since October 3rd and has a 5.20 ERA in his last seven starts on extended rest.  Severino is 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA in his last three starts against the Guardians, allowing 10 earned runs and 7 homers in 18 2/3 innings.  Take the Guardians in Game 3 Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State -4

This is the best team Mississippi State has had since Dak Prescott was in Starkville.  The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS this season with all five victories in blowout fashion by 18 points or more and their lone loss coming on the road at LSU.  That loss to LSU has had them undervalued the past two weeks and again this week.

The Bulldogs have promptly crushed Texas A&M 42-24 as 4-point home favorites and Arkansas 40-17 as 8-point home favorites.  There was nothing fluky about either of those victories.  The Bulldogs have solid numbers this season averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play on defense.

Kentucky has been overvalued since a 4-0 starts against a very soft schedule with three wins coming against Miami Ohio, Youngstown State and Northern Illinois by 8 as a 26-point favorite at home.  They lost 19-22 at Ole Miss, and then were upset 14-24 at home by a terrible South Carolina team last week.  QB Will Levis sat out that South Carolina game, and even if he returns this week he won't be 100%.

Mississippi State beat Kentucky 31-17 last season in what was a bigger blowout than the final score would even indicate.  The Bulldogs outgained the Wildcats 438 to 216, or by 222 total yards.  But Kentucky had a punt return TD in that game that made it closer than it was.  Levis threw for just 150 yards on 28 attempts with 3 interceptions in the loss.  Mississippi State QB Will Rogers lit up the Wildcats, completing 36-of-39 passes for 344 yards and a touchdown in the win.  It should be more of the same in the rematch this season as the Bulldogs have gotten better in the offseason, while the Wildcats have gotten worse.

Kentucky is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games after having won four or five of its last six games.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Mississippi State) - off a conference home win, with four or more returning starters than their opponent are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on James Madison -11.5

James Madison is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  It takes oddsmakers a lot of time to catch up to how good teams are in college football, and conversely how bad they are based on preseason expectations.  Nothing was expected of the Dukes in their first season as an FBS school coming up from the FCS.

But the Dukes are quickly showing they are the best team in the Sun Belt and honestly one of the better teams in college football.  They aren't just winning, they are dominating.  The Dukes are scoring 44.2 points per game, averaging 489 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense.  They are allowing 15.0 points per game, 233 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play on defense.  They are outscoirng opponents by 29.2 points per game and outgaining them by 256 yards per game and 2.3 yards per play.

Georgia Southern is also improved this season under first-year head coach Clay Helton.  They even pulled the 45-42 upset at Nebraska.  They are 3-3 this season with losses to UAB, Coastal Carolina and Georgia State.  They have a very good offense that is putting up 37.0 points per game, 492 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  So they can hang with the Dukes offensively.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, they aren't going to get any stops defensively.  They allow 30.3 points per game 457 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play against teams that average 26.8 points per game, 403 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  James Madison has the best defense that Georgia Southern has faced this season by far, and Georgia Southern has one of the worst defenses that the Dukes will have faces this season.

The key handicap here is Georgia Southern's inability to stop James Madison's potent rushing attack.  The Dukes average 215 rushing yards per game, but they also have balance with 274 passing yards per game.  Georgia Southern allows 227 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry this season.  You can't simply fix a poor run defense in one week.  Conversely, James Madison only allows 46 rushing yards per game and 1.6 yards per carry this season.  The Dukes will be able to extend their lead in the second half by being able to run the football at will.  Roll with James Madison Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -7.5

A coaching change was just what the doctor ordered at Wisconsin.  Paul Chryst has been failing to meet expectations for several years now with the Badgers only making the Big Ten title game once the past four seasons despite playing in the easy West Division.  Players are clearly happy to move on to defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, a former Badger who was in line to be their next head coach anyway.

Boy did the players ever respond.  After falling 34-10 at home to Illinois that led to the firing of Chryst, the Badgers responded with a 42-7 trouncing of Northwestern last week.  That was a Northwestern team that had only lost by 10 at Penn State in their previous game.  The defense was as dominant as usual, and the offense had the biggest boost with a whopping 515 total yards.  Graham Mertz must be freed up the most, having a career game with 299 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in the win.

Now the Badgers will stomp a Michigan State team that has been overvalued this season due to going 11-2 last season.  The Spartans are a far cry from that team this season.  Signing Mel Tucker to a new contract was not the right move.  He has lost this team after a 2-0 start with wins over lowly Western Michigan and Akron.

The Spartans proceeded to go 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and haven't even been competitive.  They lost 28-39 at Washington and gave up 503 total yards.  They lost 7-34 at home to Minnesota and gave up 508 total yards.  They lost 27-13 at Maryland and allowed 489 total yards.  And last week they lost 20-49 at home to Ohio State and gave up 614 total yards.  They were outgained by 412 total yards by the Buckeyes in what was an even bigger blowout than 29-point loss showed.

So we have two teams headed in opposite directions here.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Badgers after their disappointing 3-3 start.  They are a much better team than they have shown and have a high ceiling now with Leonhard at the helm and the talent on this roster.  I don't see it getting better for the Spartans any time soon because they cannot stop anyone defensively, and they only rush for 109 yards per game on offense so they have no balance, putting a ton of pressure on QB Payton Thorne that he cannot handle.

The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Wisconsin is a similar team to Minnesota, and I expect this to be similar to the 34-7 victory the Gophers had at Michigan State earlier this season.  Roll with Wisconsin Saturday.

15* Alabama/Tennessee SEC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +7.5

What more does Tennessee have to do to prove they are for real?  They will this week when they give Alabama a run for its money and likely pull off the upset.  It will be one of the best atmospheres in Tennessee ever for this game, so the Vols are going to have a huge home-field advantage.  The Vols are 5-0 and legit national title contenders.

I was on Tennessee last week when they blasted LSU 40-13 on the road as 2.5-point favorites.  They were coming off a bye, so they will still be fresh for this game against the Crimson Tide.  The Vols are elite on both sides of the football.  While the offense gets all the attention, it's the underrated defense that makes them title contenders and gives them a shot to pull off this upset.

Indeed, the Vols are only allowing 17.8 points per game and 5.2 yards per play, holding opponents to 11.6 points per game and 0.7 yards per play less than their season averages.  They are scoring 46.8 points per game and averaging 7.2 yards per play, scoring 18.4 points per game and averaging 1.5 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average.

So they are outgaining teams by 2.0 yards per play on the season, which is elite.  The Volunteers have arguably the most underrated quarterback in the entire country in Hendon Hooker.  He now has a 41-to-3 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons along with eight rushing touchdowns.  He will keep the Vols in this game for four quarters.

Alabama has escaped with a couple victories at Texas 20-19 and at home against Texas A&M 24-20.  They are fortunate to be 6-0.  I know Bryce Young is likely back at QB this week, but he won't be 100% with the AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder.  Even if he was 100%, the Vols could hang just as Texas did with Young in there.

Alabama rushes for 258 yards per game this season.  To be able to hang with Alabama, you have to be able to stop the run.  Tennessee is up to the challenge.  The Vols only allow 89 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per attempt, holding opponents to 71 yards per game and 1.8 per attempt less than their season averages.

Plays against road favorites (Alabama) - after one or more consecutive wins against an opponent that is coming off three or more consecutive wins are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is a passing of the torch moment and Tennessee's best chance to beat Alabama since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.  Take Tennessee Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +17

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Texas Longhorns off their 49-0 dismantling of Oklahoma.  They will be feeling fat and happy after ending their four-game losing streak to their biggest rivals in the Sooners.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face Iowa State this week, and they will be in more of a dog fight than they bargained for because of it.

Keep in mind everyone is dominating Oklahoma right now.  Kansas State upset them on the road.  Dillon Gabriel got hurt against TCU when they were already getting blasted and eventually lost 55-24.  That's the same TCU team that should have lost to Kansas last week.  The Longhorns beat Oklahoma without Gabriel, and somehow the Sooners don't have a capable backup quarterback.

It's also an 'Oklahoma sandwich' for the Longhorns with Oklahoma State on deck next week.  That game could decide the Big 12 title.  In the meantime the Longhorns have to face a pesky Iowa State team that could easily be 6-0 right now instead of 3-3.  But because of that poor record, it's time to 'buy low' on the Cyclones off three consecutive defeats.

Iowa State's losing streak started with a 31-24 home loss to Baylor, which may be the best team in the Big 12.  It continued with a 14-11 loss at Kansas in which the Cyclones outgained the Jayhawks 313 to 213 but missed three field goals and should have won.  And last week they lost 10-9 to Kansas State at home.  Kansas State's only touchdown came on a broken play early, and the Cyclones shut them down the rest the way.

Iowa State's elite defense can keep them in this game.  The Cyclones only allow 13.7 points, per game, 278 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against opponents that normally average 27.3 points per game, 381 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 13.6 points per game, 103 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play less than their season averages.  They'll come up with a game plan to slow down Ewers and this Texas offense.

Iowa State is not an easy team to blow out.  In fact, the Cyclones have only lost by more than 17 points once in their 70 games over the past six seasons, and that was a 33-9 loss to Notre Dame in the 2019 Camping World Bowl.  That makes for a 69-1 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 17-point spread.  Enough said.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Dodgers/Padres NLDS No-Brainer on Los Angeles -115

Getting the Los Angeles Dodgers at nearly even money against the San Diego Padres is a gift from oddsmakers tonight.  They have the better starter and have been here before.  They should be much bigger than -115 favorites in Game 3.

Tony Gonsolin is 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 7-0 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.933 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Gonsolin has never lost to the Padres, going 3-0 (5-0 money line) with a 1.55 ERA and 0.758 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Blake Snell is 8-10 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.256 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 4-8 with a 3.67 ERA in 15 home starts.  Snell has been one of the most overvalued starters in baseball this season as the Padres are 9-16 (-13.9 Units) in his 25 starts, including 5-10 (-11.6 Units) in his 15 home starts.

The Dodgers are 41-13 in their last 54 vs. NL West opponents.  Los Angeles is 67-24 in its last 91 games overall.  The Dodgers are 50-20 in their last 70 games following a loss.  Los Angeles is 41-17 in the last 58 meetings.  The Padres are 2-10 in their last 12 divisional playoff games, including 0-4 in their last four divisional playoff home games.  Bet the Dodgers Friday.

20* Commanders/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago ML +107

The Chicago Bears have played a brutal schedule and have made a good account of themselves in the early going.  They upset the 49ers and lost to the Packers, Giants and Vikings and were competitive in two of those three defeats.  They also beat Houston.  Now they get to take another step down in class here against a team that is on Houston's level in the Washington Commanders.

The Commanders are falling off the rails.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall since an opening home win over the Jaguars in comeback fashion.  They lost by 9 at Detroit, by 16 at home to Philadelphia, by 15 at Dallas and by 4 at home to Tennessee.  They have played the much easier schedule and have gotten through at 1-4.

The Commanders have had to rely on Carson Wentz too much because they cannot run the football.  And Wentz cannot be trusted as he is a turnover waiting to happen.  The Commanders rank 28th in the league rushing for just 89.0 yards per game.  Compare that to the Bears, who rank 5th in rushing at 157.4 yards per game, and it's easy to see why I'm on Chicago here.

There are expected to be 15 MPH winds inside Soldier Field in Chicago Thursday night.  That means it's going to be difficult to throw the football, and that will especially be the case for Wentz, who doesn't have the strongest arm.  That wind will lead to more mistakes by the Commanders, while a conservative, run-heavy approach for the Bears will be just what the doctor ordered.

The Bears are 2-0 SU & 1-0-1 ATS at home this season.  Chicago is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following two or more consecutive road losses.  The Bears are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now with only six players on the injury report and almost none of them significant.  The Commanders have 18 players on the injury report and many significant, including Wentz, William Jackson, Logan Thomas, Johan Dotson and Chase Young with the latter four all out.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Chicago) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 46-12 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bears on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Baylor/West Virginia FS1 No-Brainer on Baylor -3

The numbers show the Baylor Bears are the way better team in this matchup.  That's why I'm willing to lay the -3 on the road with them despite the fact that Morgantown is usually a tough place to play and I'm normally looking to back the Mountaineers at home.  I think the Bears get the job done by more than a field goal Thursday night.

Baylor and West Virginia have played similar strength of schedules, so the numbers tell the story pretty accurately here.  Baylor is outscoring opponents 37.4 to 20.6 on average this season, while West Virginia is only outscoring foes 38.2 to 29.6 on average.  The more telling stats are yards per play.  Baylor averages 6.3 yards per play on offense and allows 4.7 on defense, outgaining teams by 1.6 yards per play.  WVU averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 5.7 on defense, only outgaining teams by 0.1 yards per play.

West Virginia was just blasted 38-20 at Texas in its last game.  That was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as it was 35-7 entering the 4th quarter.  The Mountaineers scored a couple garbage time touchdowns.  They also lost arguably their best weapon on offense in RB CJ Donaldson to a concussion, and he will be out Thursday.  He has rushed for 389 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 6.9 per carry.  His backup Mathis Jr. only averages 4.2 yards per carry, so it's a big downgrade.

Baylor could easily be 5-0 right now instead of 3-2.  The Bears blew the game in OT in a 26-20 loss at BYU.  They played Oklahoma State much tougher than the 25-36 final would indicate.  Baylor had 457 total yards against Oklahoma State and held the Cowboys to a season-low 379 yards.  But they gave up 9 points on a kickoff return and a safety that was the difference.  If they were 5-0 instead of 3-2, they would be bigger favorites.

Baylor blasted West Virginia 45-20 at home last season.  The Bears had 525 total yards and allowed 362 to the Mountaineers, outgaining them by 163 yards.  The key to this victory will be Baylor winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Baylor only allows 2.8 yards per carry this season, and now WVU won't have the threat of a running game without Donaldson.  WVU QB JT Daniels is going to be under pressure the entire game.

The Bears are 20-4-2 ATS int heir last 26 games following an ATS loss.  West Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games.  Bet Baylor Thursday.

15* Mariners/Astros ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +150

The Seattle Mariners aren't lacking any confidence at the plate right now in the postseason.  They have scored 21 combined runs in their first three playoff games.  They have also scored at least 4 runs in six consecutive games dating back to the regular season.

Look for the Mariners to bounce back following a tough Game 1 loss where they blew a 7-3 lead.  Luis Castillo will get them back in the win column.  He is 9-6 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.072 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Castillo fired 7 1/3 shutout innings against the potent Blue Jays in a 4-0 victory last time out.

Framber Valdez is having a solid season overall, but he has lost his touch here down the stretch.  Valdez is 1-1 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.724 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 13 runs, 10 earned and 27 base runners in 15 2/3 innings.  Valdez allowed 3 earned runs in each of his two starts against the Mariners this season.

Seattle is 35-17 in its last 52 road games.  The Mariners are 5-0 in their last five games vs. a left-handed starter.  Roll with the Mariners Thursday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -136

The Atlanta Braves will bounce back after losing as -200 favorites to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1.  This is a much better value on the Braves in Game 2 as they are now just -136 favorites against the Phillies in essentially what is a 'must win'.  They've been winning 'must win' games consistently for two seasons now.

Kyle Wright is 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  Wright has been at his best at home, going 13-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 17 home starts.  He is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his last two starts against the Phillies, allowing just 3 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings.

The Braves are 16-1 in Wright's last 17 starts.  Atlanta is 44-13 in its last 57 during Game 2 of a series.  The Braves are 42-13 in their last 55 home games.  Atlanta is 11-4 in its last 15 home meetings with Philadelphia.  Bet the Braves Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+100)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the San Diego Padres.  Look for them to win this game by two runs or more with ease due to that advantage.  They have owned the Padres as well, going 14-5 against them this season, including 8-2 at home.

Julio Urias is 17-7 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  Urias owns the Padres, going 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.  He is 5-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last six starts against them, allowing just 4 earned runs in 36 innings.

Mike Clevinger is 7-7 with a 4.25 ERA in 22 starts this season, including 4-4 with a 5.34 ERA in 13 road starts.  Clevinger has never beaten the Dodgers, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He has allowed 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 14 innings in those five starts.

The Dodgers are 29-5 in Urias' 34 starts in the second half of the season over the last two seasons and winning by 3.0 runs per game.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Raiders/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51

This one is as simply as it gets.  When the Chiefs and Raiders get together, it's always a shootout.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 57, 55, 66 and 72 points in the last four meetings, respectively.  This total of 51 has been set too low, especially with both offenses coming in hot.

The Chiefs are coming off their second 40-point effort of the season when they beat the Bucs 41-31.  Scoring 41 on that Tampa Bay defense is no small feat.  They also scored 44 on the Cardinals back in Week 1.  It looks like Patrick Mahomes isn't missing Tyreke Hill one bit.  He'll stay hot against a Raiders defense that he has absolutely owns.

The Chiefs have scored at least 35 points in seven of their last eight meetings with the Raiders.  It will be more of the same here against a Raiders defense that is allowing 25.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play this season, ranking 23rd in scoring defense and 21st in defensive yards per play.

The Raiders are loaded on offense and have scored at least 22 points in three consecutive games.  They just put up a season-high 32 points on a very good Broncos defense that ranks among the best in the NFL to this point.  They should also be able to keep pace with the Chiefs, who allowed 326 passing yards to the Chargers and 373 more to the Bucs.

The weather looks good in Kansas City Monday with temperatures in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds at game time.  The OVER is 19-5 in Chiefs last 24 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game.  Andy Reid is 9-1 OVER after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs.  The OVER is 9-3 in Chiefs last 12 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +6

Cooper Rush is now 4-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2.  He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  And last week he crushed the Commanders 25-10.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They allow just 15.5 points per game, 308.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 4th in yards per play allowed this season.

 Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks.  You know who else is tied with them for 2nd in sacks?  The 49ers.  Well, I was on the 49ers against the Rams for many of the same reasons as I'm on the Cowboys this week.  Their defensive line is going to own this depleted Rams offensive line.

The 49ers held the Rams to 9 points on three field goals last week and made life miserable on Matthew Stafford.  The Cowboys will do the same.  The Rams lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason.  Now they are down C Allen, G Bruss and G Shelton.  G Edwards is questionable for this one.  Stafford is getting a lot of grief for declining this season, but it has as much to do with the offensive line as anything.  Plus, he only has chemistry with Cooper Kupp and has yet to find one with Allen Robinson.  WR Van Jefferson is out, and gone are both Beckham Jr. and Woods.

There has definitely been a Super Bowl hangover effect for the Rams as well.  They are 1-3 ATS this season with their only dominant win coming 20-12 at Arizona.  But they own the Cardinals, and they are way down this season.  They lost 31-10 to Buffalo in the opener and 24-9 to San Francisco.  They barely escaped with a 31-27 win over Atlanta as a double-digit underdog.  They have no business being favored by nearly a touchdown over the Cowboys, who I think are the better team right now even with Rush at QB.  This line should be much closer to PK than -6.

The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Dallas is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Rams are on a short week and don't have much of a home-field advantage.  There may be more Cowboy fans here than Rams fans even.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Eagles -5

The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC this season and I don't think there's any debate.  They are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with elite numbers to this point.  They are loaded on both sides of the football and are taking care of the football, committing just two turnovers while forcing 10 thus far.

The Eagles are scoring 28.8 points per game, averaging 435.5 yards per game and putting up 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 4th in scoring offense, 2nd in total offense and 5th in yards per play.  They are allowing just 17.8 points per game, 277.3 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  They rank 9th in scoring defense, 3rd in total defense and 3rd in yards per play allowed.

Now they take on the Arizona Cardinals, who are very fortunate to be 2-2 when you consider they have played 13 bad quarters and only 3 good quarters.  They trailed 23-7 against the Raiders entering the 4th quarter before the refs gifted them an OT victory.  They trailed the Panthers 10-3 at halftime last week before coming back to win 26-16.

In the two games against teams on Philadelphia's level, the Cardinals were not even competitive.  They lost 44-21 to the Chiefs in Week 1 and 20-12 to the Rams in Week 3.  It won't go any better for them against the Eagles this week.  Kyler Murray is having to do too much on his own because of their lack of a rushing attack.  And he is missing key weapons on the outside including DeAndre Hopkins.

This Arizona defense cannot be trusted to get stops, either.  The Cardinals are allowing 25.8 points per game, 342.8 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 27th in the league in yards per play on defense, which is the most predictable stat for how good a defense really is.  To compare, the Eagles only allow 4.5 yards per play.

Arizona has zero home-field advantage.  In fact, the Cardinals are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in in their last seven home games.  Arizona is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 100 or more total yards.  Kliff Kingsbury is 8-18 ATS as home as the coach of Arizona.  Take the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +8.5

The Atlanta Falcons have been the most underrated team in the NFL this season.  They are the only team that is 4-0 ATS this season.  They covered in a 26-27 home loss to the Saints as 6-point underdogs, covered in a 27-31 road loss to the Rams as 10.5-point dogs, covered in a 27-23 win at Seattle as 1-point dogs and covered in a 23-20 home win at Cleveland as 1-point dogs.

As you can see, all four games have been decided by one score.  I think that will be the case again here Sunday against the Tampa Bay Bucs with the Falcons once again catching too many points as 8.5-point road underdogs.  The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs.  They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play.

The Bucs have been held back by injury issues, and Tom Brady is distracted with the divorce proceedings.  This Tampa Bay offense has been woeful, averaging 20.5 points per game, 317.0 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  They rank 25th in total offense and 22nd in offensive yards per play.  They have a banged up offensive line and receiving corps, which has made it even more difficult on Brady.

After three dominant defensive efforts, the Bucs were exposed by the Chiefs last week.  They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City.  Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football.  That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush.

The Falcons do have a suspect defense, no doubt, but they have the offense that can keep them in this game for four quarters.  They are feeling good right now and will be looking forward to testing themselves against the Bucs, who are in a terrible spot mentally right now with all the distractions and injuries.  These players are loving playing for Arthur Smith and playing the role of the underdog, while the Bucs are getting too much respect for what they've done in the past, and not the team they currently are.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Atlanta) - a good offensive team scoring 24 or more points per game, after a win by 3 points or less are 92-47 (66.2%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +3

If the Cleveland Browns were 4-0 like they should be, they would not be 3-point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers.  But since they are 2-2 right now instead, we are getting value on the Browns.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them off a loss and non-cover, and a great time to 'sell high' on the Chargers off a win and cover.

Let's explain why the Browns should be 4-0.  They outgained the Panthers by 94 yards in their 26-24 road win.  They outgained the Steelers by 68 yards in their 29-17 home win.  They blew a 13-point lead against the Jets in the final two minutes and lost 30-31 despite outgaining them.  And they outgained the Falcons by 70 yards in their 20-23 road loss last week due to red zone struggles.  So they have outgained all four opponents this season and have elite numbers.

Cleveland ranks 4th in total offense at 384.8 yards per game and 9th in total defense at 326.0 yards per game.  Jacoby Brissett has been better than everyone expected, and he can thrive behind one of the league's best rushing attacks.  The Browns rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing for 187.3 yards per game this season.  And that is going to be their key to victory because they are going to be able to run all over this Chargers defense.

The Chargers are also 2-2 this season, but they are getting a lot of love because Justin Herbert looked healthy last week in their win over the Texans.  But the Texans may be the worst team in the NFL, and that was a 3-point game late in the 4th quarter.  They tacked on one final score to get the win and cover.  Their other win came against the Raiders, who are 1-3 and their two wins have come against two teams that are 1-6-1 this season.

When the Chargers stepped up in class, they lost.  They lost 24-27 at Kansas City only after scoring a last-second, meaningless TD.  They suffered a ton of injuries in that game that they are still dealing with now.  They came back and were blown out 38-10 by the Jaguars at home.  They are still without two of their best players in T Slater and LB Bosa, and they could be without WR Allen again, who is questionable.

While the Chargers will be fine on offense moving forward for the most part, it's their defense that is going to be the problem in this game against the Browns.  They rank 31st in the NFL in allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per carry.  That's really bad when you consider they have faced the Raiders, Chiefs, Jaguars and Texans.  Only the Jaguars have a decent rushing attack, and they rushed for 151 yards on the Chargers.  Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are going to have monster games in this one.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Chargers) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in October games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - a mistake-free team that commits 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after three consecutive games where they forced one turnover or fewer are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  

Myles Garrett returned to practice on Wednesday after sitting out the Atlanta game.  That's a good sign he will be able to play this week.  And head coach Kevin Stefanski was hopeful Jadeveon Clowney would return later this week.  If they get one or both back it would be a huge boost.  The Chargers are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Roll with the Browns Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 46

The Atlanta Falcons are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have an elite offense and a suspect defense.  The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs.  They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play.  They are allowing 25.3 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 25th in scoring defense and 24th in yards per play allowed.

I think this number has been set so low because the Bucs have struggled so much on offense and have been elite defensively.  But that has changed now that the Bucs have gotten healthy on offense.  They scored 31 points against the Chiefs last week.  They just got back Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones and should be much better offensively moving forward.

The problem now with the Bucs is injuries on defense, which resulted in a terrible effort against Kansas City last week.  They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City.  Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football.  That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  In fact, the Bucs and Falcons have combined for 47 or more points in eight consecutive meetings, which would make for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 46-point total.  They have averaged a whopping 60.1 combined points per game in those eight meetings.  The forecast is perfect for a shootout in Tampa with temps in the 80s and only 10 MPH winds expected.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona +13

The Arizona Wildcats were much more competitive than their 1-11 record would indicate last season.  They are one of the most improved teams in the country this season, but they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are off to a 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS start despite being underdogs in four of five games.  They pulled the upsets over San Diego State and North Dakota State with their only losses coming to Mississippi State and California in games they were competitive deep into the 2nd half.

Now they take on Oregon, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Ducks after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games against a pretty soft schedule with three home wins and a fortunate 44-41 win at Washington State.  Their other road game resulted in a 49-3 loss to Georgia.  They have a big home/away discrepancy.

Arizona lost 41-19 at Oregon last year in what was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  Arizona actually outgained Oregon 435 to 393 in that game, but gave it away by being -5 in turnovers.  The Wildcats are vastly improved this season, and a big part of that is Washington State transfer QB Jayden de Laura.  He is completing 62.8% of his passes for 1,633 yards with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 60 yards and a score.  He can keep the Wildcats in this game for four quarters.

Plays on home teams (Arizona) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 440 yards per game against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 yards per play or more in two consecutive games are 80-32 (71.4%) ATS since 1992.  The Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Oregon is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Oregon.  Roll with Arizona Saturday.

20* Phillies/Cardinals NL No-Brainer on St. Louis +111

The St. Louis Cardinals blew a 2-0 lead in the 9th inning yesterday.  They were 93-0 in postseason history when having a 2-run lead or higher in the 9th inning.  Look for them to bounce back in a big way today.  They should not be home underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 2.

We have underrated starter Miles Mikolas against overrated starter Aaron Nola.  These starters have similar numbers, yet Mikolas is a home dog.  Mikolas has a 3.30 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 32 starts this season, while Nola has a 3.25 ERA and 0.956 WHIP in 32 starts.

Mikolas has been at his best at home, going 6-3 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.834 WHIP in 14 home starts.  He is 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia.  He has held the Phillies to just 3 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  Nolas has allowed 8 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts against the Cardinals.

The Phillies are 13-21 (-12.4 Units) in Nola's 34 road starts over the past two seasons.  The Cardinals are 11-3 (+8.8 Units) in Mikolas' last 14 starts with a line of +125 to -125.  The Phillies are 3-12 (-10.9 Units) in Nola's 15 starts vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game this season.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +2

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Iowa State Cyclones this week.  They are coming off two losses to Baylor and Kansas by a combined 10 points in which they arguably could have won both.  Look for them to give an 'A' effort here to try and avoid a three-game losing streak.

Conversely, it's time to 'sell high' on Kansas State.  They are coming off two straight wins and covers against Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  Of course, that win over Oklahoma doesn't look nearly as good after the Sooners were just blasted 55-24 by TCU last week.  And Texas Tech is one of the worst teams in the Big 12 and they only won by 37-28 at home despite forcing four turnovers.

I love the matchup for the Cyclones.  They rank 7th in the country against the run, allowing just 83 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry this season.  Kansas State relies on moving the football on ground, averaging 267 rushing yards per game compared to only 139 passing yards.

Adrian Martinez is beating teams with his legs rather than his arm.  Well, we saw what Iowa State did to Kansas last week.  Nobody had been able to stop Kansas dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels up to that point.  Iowa State held him to just 9 rushing yards on 8 carries, and 7-of-14 passing for 93 yards.  And he's a better passer than Martinez.  The Cyclones held that high-powered Kansas offense to just 213 total yards and 10 first downs.  They would have won the game if not for 3 missed field goals.  They will hold Martinez in check this week as well.

Kansas State may have the slightly better offense than Iowa State, but it's close.  There's no debate that Iowa State has the better defense.  They are holding teams to 256 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play this season, while K-State is allowing 370 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  So I'm getting the better defense as a home underdog in what is a home run spot where they need this win like blood to avoid their third consecutive defeat.

Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. poor passing teams that average 150 or fewer passing yards per game.  The Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings after winning 33-20 on the road last year and 45-0 at home in 2020.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Army +17.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Army.  They are off to a disappointing 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS start against a tough schedule.  They have played arguably the best team in the Sun Belt in Coastal Carolina and lost by 10.  They also lost to arguably the best team in Conference USA in UTA by 3.  Their 14-31 loss to Georgia State last week as a 9-point favorite is what is giving us the opportunity to 'buy low' on them.  They rushed for 354 yards in that game, but gave the game away by committing three turnovers.

Wake Forest is in a massive letdown spot.  The Demon Deacons are coming off three straight hard-fought games.  They were nearly upset by Liberty in a 37-36 win.  They were probably looking ahead to Clemson, who they lost to 45-51 in double-OT.  They bounced back last week with a 31-21 upset win at Florida State.  I just don't think the Demon Deacons have much left in the tank.  They really needed a bye this week, but instead they will have to face Army's triple-option, which isn't fun to prepare for let alone face.

Last year, Army kept Pace with Wake Forest in a 70-56 home loss as 3-point underdogs.  Both teams have similar returning starters, but now Wake Forest is a 17.5-point favorite in the rematch, a 14.5-point adjustment.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Demon Deacons after a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  This is the spot they let down similar to when they nearly let Liberty beat them three weeks ago at home.

Jeff Monken is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with better than a 75% winning percentage as the coach of Army.  The Black Knights have played 29 games over the past three seasons.  They've only lost once by more than 17 points.  That makes for a 28-1 system backing the Black Knights pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.  Take Army Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech -3

I love the spot for Louisiana Tech.  They are coming off a bye week after a 1-3 start this season.  They have played a brutal schedule with their three losses all coming on the road to Missouri, Clemson and South Alabama, while they crushed Stephen F. Austin 52-17 as 6.5-point favorites in their lone home game.  

The bye came at a great time after this brutal schedule so they can regroup and get ready for conference play.  Byes also tend to benefit teams more with a first-year head coach like the Bulldogs have in Sonny Cumbie.  Turnovers have been the biggest issue for the Bulldogs as they have committed 12 in those three road losses.  Look for them to focus on ball security in practice for two weeks, and to come out with a big effort here Saturday night as they take a big step down in class against UTEP.

This is a terrible spot for the Miners.  They are a tired team right now as they will be playing for a 7th consecutive week to start the season.  They are in a letdown spot after upsetting Boise State 27-10 at home followed by a 41-35 win as 3.5-point favorites at Charlotte last week.  That shootout win will have taken a lot out of them.  Now they have to travel back to the Eastern Time Zone for a 2nd consecutive week, just amplifying their fatigue factor.

Keep in mind this UTEP team also has bad losses to North Texas 31-13 and New Mexico 27-10.  They have played the easier strength of schedule with their other win coming against New Mexico State.  Their numbers are not very good as they average 5.2 yards per play on offense against teams that normally average giving up 5.9 yards per play on defense.  They average 20.7 points per game against teams that normally allow 30.2 points per game.  

To compare, LA Tech is actually averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense against teams that normally give up only 5.5 per play on defense.  Look for them to have one of their best offensive performances of the season this week similar to what they had against Stephen F. Austin when they scored 52 points and had 515 total yards against a quality FCS opponent.

LA Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a bye week.  UTEP is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more.  Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +3.5

East Carolina is better than Tulane, period.  The Pirates should not be underdogs in this game, especially against a Tulane team that was down to their third-string QB against Houston last week.  They are overvalued due to winning that game 27-24 in a game they had no business winning.  They were outgained 273 to 383 by Houston, or by 110 total yards.

This line indicates the Green Wave will get QB Michael Pratt back this week from a shoulder injury even though he's listed as questionable.  But it's not going to matter.  The Green Wave are a fraudulent 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season, and it's time to 'sell high' on them.  This is a team that went 2-10 last season and is exceeding expectations and getting too much respect now as a result.

East Carolina is 3-2 and should be 5-0.  They have outgained all five opponents this season.  That includes their 20-21 loss to NC State in which they missed an extra point late.  They also outgained Navy by 27 yards in their 3-point OT loss, so they are 4 points away from being undefeated.  They have elite numbers on both sides of the football despite playing a pretty tough schedule.

East Carolina is averaging 35.2 points per game, 486 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense.  They are only giving up 20.6 points per game, 371 yards per game and 5.9 per play on defense.  I love their balanced offense that averages 172 yards per game on the ground and 314 yards per game through the air.  Holton Ahlers is arguably the best QB in the conference.  He is completing 68.6% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 81 yards and a score.

East Carolina crushed Tulane 52-29 last year and gained 612 total yards in a dominant effort.  Ahlers threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns and also rushed for a score.  The Pirates are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as road underdogs of 7 points or less.  Tulane is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games off a close road win by 3 points or less, losing by a whopping 27.6 points per game in this spot.  The Pirates are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Green Wave get exposed this week.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida +28

Cincinnati isn't as good as last year when they made the four-team playoff.  Making the playoff has them overvalued this season.  No question the Bearcats are still the class of the AAC, but they should not be favored by four touchdowns over South Florida this week.

Their only win this season by more than 21 points came against Keenesaw State as a 29-point favorite.  They also beat Miami Ohio by 21 and their backup QB.  They only outgained a bad Indiana team by 46 yards in a misleading 45-24 final.  And last week they only outgained Tulsa by 79 yards in a 10-point victory.

I'm not high on South Florida as I faded them last week with a free pick on East Carolina that cashed in a 48-28 win as 9.5-point favorites.  However, I was impressed that USF kept trying to punch back after getting down big early.  And we've seen them nearly upset Florida in a 28-31 loss as 23-point road underdogs.  If they were 23-point road dogs to Florida, they should not be 28-point dogs to Cincinnati.

USF just owns Cincinnati from a point spread perspective.  Indeed, the Bulls are a perfect 7-0 ATS In the last seven meetings.  In fact, dating back to 2003, Cincinnati hasn't beaten South Florida by more than 22 points in any of their 19 meetings.  That makes for a 19-0 system backing the Bulls pertaining to this 28-point spread.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

15* Rays/Guardians AL Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -102

The Cleveland Guardians are the hottest team in baseball heading into the postseason.  They have gone 23-5 in their last 28 games overall. They carried that momentum into their 2-1 Game 1 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays, who are 4-13 in their last 17 games overall and playing their worst baseball of the season.  They can't just turn on the switch now in the postseason.

Getting the hot Guardians and Triston McKenzie at basically even money is great value in Game 2 today.  McKenzie is 11-10 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in 30 starts this season, 5-3 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.898 WHIP in 13 home starts and 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last three starts.  

McKenzie has a 2.25 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in two career starts against Tampa Bay, both of which resulted in victories for Cleveland.  He'll be opposed by Tyler Glasnow, who will be making just his 3rd start of the season for the Rays.  That's a tall task to ask him to be in top form in such a short time with their season on the line today.  Take the Guardians Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee -2.5

I love this spot for the Tennessee Vols.  They are coming off a bye week after their big win over Florida.  Now they have two full weeks to prepare for the LSU Tigers and will be the fresher team.  And I don't think the country has caught up to how good the Volunteers are this season.  They are legitimate SEC title contenders.

The Volunteers have arguably the most underrated quarterback in the entire country in Hendon Hooker.  He now has a 39-to-3 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons along with eight rushing touchdowns.  Hooker and Josh Heupel have this offense humming, averaging 48.5 points per game, 559.3 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play against opponents that normally allow 31 points per game, 414 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  

The defense is holding opponents to 19.0 points per game and 5.3 yards per play against offenses that normally average 27.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Florida put up a lot of points and yards late to hurt those averages when the game was already decided, and that was really a misleading 38-33 final.

I just don't think LSU is very good and it's going to take some time for Brian Kelly to get them back to SEC title contention.  They lost to Florida State in the opener before reeling off three straight home wins with two of them coming against Southern and New Mexico.  The Mississippi State win was a good one, so they deserve credit for that.

But last week's 21-17 win at Auburn was very alarming.  That's an Auburn team that is way down this season and nearly lost to both San Jose State and Missouri at home.  They were outgained 438 to 270 by Auburn, or by 168 total yards.  Auburn gave that game away by committing four turnovers, including one that was returned for a TD when they led 17-0.  That's also an Auburn team that lost 41-12 at home to Penn State and was playing with a backup QB against LSU.

Now LSU will be playing for a 6th consecutive week, while Tennessee comes in rested and ready to go.  Fatigue and injuries will catch up with the Tigers this week.  I also like a hidden factor here, which is that the kickoff is at 12:00 EST Saturday afternoon.  Baton Rouge at night is a much more difficult place to play than Baton Rouge in the early window on Saturday's.

The road team is 6-0-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Tennessee is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* TCU/Kansas FS1 Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +7

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.  They covered in a 35-27 win as 7-point favorites against Duke two weeks ago, a Blue Devils team that is 4-0 in all other games this season.  

Last week, it seemed everyone thought they'd lose to Iowa State, but they pulled out the 14-11 upset as 3.5-point underdogs and I backed them again.  I'm back on them again this week because they are still getting disrespected as 7-point home underdogs to TCU.  ESPN College Gameday will be in Lawrence this week to cover this team and their 5-0 start, so there will be no letdown for the Jayhawks, especially learning that they are underdogs again.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 41.6 points per game, 421.0 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 385 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.1 yards per play.  Their defense showed last week they could win a game for them when needed.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 220 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry.  They are also completing 68.8% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

I think this is a bad spot for TCU, and they are getting way too much respect for their 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma.  That's the same Oklahoma team that was upset by Kansas State at home the previous week and clearly has issues.  Plus, Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel got injured in the first half against TCU, and they were doomed from there.  But unlike Kansas, TCU is getting respect for its 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season.  They will meet their match this week in the Jayhawks.

The Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall and covering by 16.3 points per game.  That includes their 28-31 loss at TCU as 21-point dogs last year, which they will be out for revenge for to add to their motivation.  I have been on them for almost every game and I'm not about to jump off the train now.  Roll with Kansas Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan/Indiana UNDER 59

Indiana isn't going to be able to score enough on this elite Michigan defense to be able to top 59 combined points.  The books have missed their mark badly with this one.  The Hoosiers have some serious injury issues at receiver that are hampering their offense.  Two starters in Cam Camper and DJ Matthews are questionable while both Smith and Baker are out.

The Hoosiers managed just 21 points and 290 total yards against a terrible Nebraska defense last week.  That's the same Nebraska defense that gave up 49 points to Oklahoma, 45 to Georgia Southern and 31 to Northwestern.  This Indiana offense is only averaging 4.8 yards per play, but they do have a solid defense that is allowing 5.5 yards per play against teams that normally average 6.0 yards per play, holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.

Michigan has another elite defense this season in allowing just 11.6 points per game, 252.0 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  Michigan loves to run the football, averaging 40 rush attempts per game compared to 25 passing.  They will get off to a big early lead and then sit on it with their running game, which will help us cash this UNDER ticket.

These teams combined for just 36 points last season.  In fact, each of the last six meetings between Michigan and Indiana have seen 59 or fewer combined points, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 59-point total.  They have combined for an average of just 44.8 points per game at the end of regulation in their last six meetings.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Indiana) - after one or more consecutive losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 70-29 (70.7%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* UNLV/SJSU MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +7

The UNLV Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country.  There has been nothing fluky about their 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  Their lone loss came on the road to Cal as 13-point underdogs by a final of 20-14.  They won their other four games by double-digits by 31 over Idaho State, by 31 over North Texas, by 10 over Utah State and by 11 over New Mexico.

Doug Brumfield is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and gets no national attention.  He is completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,223 yards with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions, while also rushing for 142 yards and five scores.  It has been a balanced offensive attack that has been tough to tame with the Rebels averaging 169 yards on the ground and 254 yards through the air.  They are scoring 37.8 points per game.

The Rebels have an improved defense this season as well.  They are allowing just 22.4 points per game, 356.6 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  This is at least an average defense now, plus one of the best offenses in the MAC.  They should be able to give San Jose State all they can handle in this one.

I think San Jose State is getting too much credit for its 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start.  The lone loss came at Auburn, and while it was competitive, Auburn is way down this season.  They only beat Portland State by 4 as 22-point favorites.  They beat a Western Michigan team that was playing with a freshman QB and a Wyoming team that was playing with another terrible QB.  They have faced four bad quarterbacks this season and haven't faced anyone nearly as talented as Brumfeld.

A bad UNLV team gave San Jose State a run for its money last year in a 27-20 defeat.  I think both teams are improved, but there's no question the Rebels are more improved.  These teams have faced similar strength of schedules and have similar numbers.  UNLV is outgaining teams by 66 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play, while San Jose State is outgaining teams by 61 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play.  This game should be lined much closer to PK than -7.

Brent Brennan is 0-7 ATS in home games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points as the coach of San Jose State having never covered in this spot with the Spartans losing by a whopping 26.3 points per game.  The Rebels are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Bet UNLV Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Cardinals UNDER 7

It will only be 62 degrees in St. Louis this afternoon and the forecast is calling for 10 MPH winds blowing in from left.  Runs will be hard to come by for both offenses against these two underrated starting pitchers in Game 1 of this series.

Jose Quintana is 6-7 with a 2.82 ERA in 32 starts for the Cardinals this season and has been a great comeback story.  Quintana has been at his best at home, going 4-4 with a 2.24 ERA in 17 home starts.  He is also 1-1 with a 0.61 ERA in his last three starts.  Quintana owns the Phillies with a 2.90 ERA in seven career starts against them, including a 0.76 ERA in his last four starts against them while allowing just 2 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings.

Zack Wheeler is 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in his last three starts.  Wheeler also owns the Cardinals, going 3-0 with a minuscule 0.41 ERA in his last three starts against them, allowing just one earned run in 22 innings.

The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Cardinals last eight games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 7 runs or fewer in all five meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Rays/Guardians AL Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -109

The Cleveland Guardians are the hottest team in baseball heading into the postseason.  They have gone 22-5 in their last 27 games overall.  They will carry that momentum into Game 1 of this series with the Tampa Bay Rays, who are 4-12 in their last 16 games overall and playing their worst baseball of the season coming in.

Ace Shane Bieber is 13-8 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  Bieber is also 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in six career starts against the Rays.

Shane McClanahan lost his form in the second half of the season.  He is 0-3 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 4 innings in 14 innings with only 7 K's.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 1/3 innings in his lone start against Cleveland this season on July 31st.  Roll with the Guardians Friday.

15* Colts/Broncos AFC ANNIHILATOR on Denver -3

The Indianapolis Colts are in a world of hurt this season.  They are 1-2-1 and arguably should be 0-4.  They tied the Texans in Week 1 only after coming back from a 20-3 deficit in the 4th quarter.  The Texans may be the worst team in the NFL.  They lost to the Jaguars 24-0 in Week 2.  The abberration was the 20-17 win over Chiefs in which they were held to 259 yards.  And last week they lost 24-17 at home to the lowly Titans.

Now it gets worse for the Colts.  They could be without their best offensive player in RB Jonathan Taylor, who injured his ankle late in the loss to the Titans.  It would be hard to see him coming back on a short week and being anywhere near 100%.  They also lost their best defensive player in LB Shaq Leonard to a concussion and he will miss this game.  I don't trust Matt Ryan at all as he has already fumbled eight times this season and the Colts have committed nine turnovers in four games.

The Broncos have injury concerns of their own, but not as significant as the Colts in terms of key players.  I also think the Broncos' problems this season have been overblown.  They are 2-2 and should be 3-1 as they outgained the Seahawks by 180 yards in the opener, but fumbled at the goal line twice in a 17-16 loss.  They came back and beat the Texans and 49ers, and that win over the 49ers looks really good now.  They lost to a desperate Raiders team last week that was 0-3 and simply wanted it more than they did.  Look for the Broncos to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week.

I think the Broncos have more potential on offense as Russell Wilson and his weapons get more comfortable with each other moving forward.  They will eventually compliment their defense, which has been one of the best units in the NFL this season in allowing just 17.0 points per game, 285 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  They rank 5th in scoring defense, 5th in total defense and 7th in yards per play.  Matt Ryan has struggled tremendously and still hasn't seen a defense this good yet.

Denver is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 home games following a division loss.  Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the Broncos Thursday.

20* SMU/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU +3

The SMU Mustangs are just 2-2 this season but I've been very impressed with them.  After beating North Texas 48-10 and Lamar 45-16 to open the season, they lost a pair of one-score games to Maryland and TCU, two Power 5 opponents.  Those also happen to be two of the most improved teams in the country.

SMU lost 27-34 at Maryland and should have won that game.  They gained 520 yards on the Terrapins and outgained them by 79 yards.  That's the same Maryland team that almost beat Michigan on the road, and that came back to crush Michigan State 27-13 at home.

SMU also lost 34-42 at home to TCU as a 2.5-point underdog.  The Mustangs gained 476 yards on the Horned Frogs and were only outgained by 11 yards.  That's the same TCU team that is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season and coming off a 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma as a 5-point underdog.

UCF has played a much softer schedule and is 3-1 SU despite being favored in all four games.  They beat South Carolina State 56-10 before losing to Louisville 14-20 as a 5.5-point favorite.  THey beat FAU 40-14 on the road before topping Georgia Tech 27-10 at home.  But that win over awful Georgia Tech was very misleading.  The Knights actually gave up 452 yards to the Yellow Jackets and were outgained by 119 yards.  They allowed 314 passing yards to what is a poor GT passing offense.

SMU crushed UCF 55-28 last season as a 7-point home favorite.  They had 36 first downs compared to just 15 for UCF and outgained them 631 to 333, or by 298 total yards.  Now the Mustangs come back as a 3-point underdog a year later.  Their offense is as potent as it was last year, and their defense is better than it was expected to be as well.

SMU is averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense against teams that allow 5.8 yards per play, averaging 0.6 yards per play more than their opponents normally allow.  SMU is allowing 5.7 yards per play against teams that average 6.2 yards per play, holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  Those are elite numbers compared to UCF, which is at 6.1  yards per play on offense against teams that allow 6.1 per play on defense, and 5.0 yards per play on defense against teams that average 5.1 yards per play on offense.

UCF is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 conference games.  Bet SMU Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -117

The Chicago Cubs are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.  But they have lost the first two games of this series at Cincinnati, and I expect them to come back motivated to win the final game of the season and avoid the sweep.  They should be much bigger favorites when you consider how big their advantage is on the mound.

The Reds are just 6-19 in their last 25 games overall.  I'll gladly fade them and Graham Ashcraft, who is 5-5 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.949 WHIP in his last three.  Ashcraft has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-3 with an 11.92 ERA and 2.295 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing 15 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in three starts against them in 2022 alone.

I'll gladly back Adrian Sampson, who is 4-5 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Sampson has done his best work on the road, going 3-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.  He has owned the Reds, going 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts against Cincinnati this season.

Cincinnati is 4-19 after batting .200 or worse over a five-game span this season.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +180

The Seattle Mariners are now locked into their seed in the American League and will be playing the Toronto Blue Jays.  They won't care about winning this game.  Look for them to rest their starters, and they are throwing a gas can of a starting pitcher in Marco Gonzalez tonight.

I'll gladly fade Gonzalez, who is 10-15 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.330 WHIP in 31 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in his last three.  Gonzalez is 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA in his last three starts against the Tigers, allowing 10 earned runs in 16 innings.

The Tigers have quietly gone 11-4 in their last 15 games overall with with eight wins as underdogs.  They should not be this big of dogs to the Mariners given the situation.  I also like what I've seen from Detroit starter Tyler Alexander of late.  He is 1-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 4 earned runs in 18 innings.  Take the Tigers Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Angels are 7-2 in their last nine games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in nine of their last 11 games overall.  Look for them to cap off their season with a blowout victory over the Oakland A's due to their advantage on the mound and at the plate.  The A's have scored 2 runs or fewer in five of their last seven games overall.

Ace Shohei Ohtani gets the ball for the Angels.  He is 15-8 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 5-0 with a minuscule 0.86 ERA in his last six starts while allowing only 4 earned runs in 42 innings.  Ohtani is 4-3 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.930 WHIP nine career starts against Oakland, including 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two while pitching 14 shutout innings.

I'll gladly fade Ken Waldichuk and the A's.  Waldichuk is 1-2 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in six starts this season.  Oakland is 4-17 in its last 21 home games after a game where their bullpen blew a save.  The A's are 8-24 in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Angels on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +130

The San Diego Padres just clinched a playoff spot yesterday.  I'll gladly fade them here in this letdown spot as they are more concerned with resting up for the postseason in these final two games now.  They won't care at all about winning this game tonight.

I'll also gladly back the Giants, who have quietly gone 11-3 in their last 14 games overall and are trying to win games down the stretch.  The Giants also have the advantage on the mound with Carlos Rodon, who is 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in 31 starts this season.

I'll gladly fade Sean Manaea, who is the biggest weak link in this San Diego rotation.  Manaea is 7-9 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings in his last two starts against the Giants this season and has no business being this heavy of a favorite today.

Rodon's teams are an impressive 21-13 (+17.1 Units) as a dog of +125 to +175 in his career.  Roll with the Giants Tuesday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks -110

The Milwaukee Brewers were just officially eliminated from the playoffs on Monday.  I don't expect them to show up at all today.  The Arizona Diamondbacks have a big advantage on the mound, and with the motivational factor in their favor, this is one of my favorite bets of the season.

Zac Gallen has pitched well enough to win the Cy Young this season.  He is 12-3 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.899 WHIP in 30 starts and one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Gallen has posted a 1.59 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee.  He fired 7 shutout innings in a 5-1 victory over the Brewers in his lone start against them this season.

Eric Lauer is 10-7 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in 28 starts this season for the Brewers.  Lauer is 0-1 with a 7.83 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings.  Gallen has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 14 consecutive starts, and zero earned runs in 7 of those.  Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +150 (Game 1)

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 11-2 in their last 13 games overall with eight wins as underdogs.  The Seattle Mariners have already clinched a playoff spot, and they really don't have much to play for in this series.  They should not be this big of a favorite over a hot team like Detroit as a result.

I cashed the Tigers +220 yesterday, and I'm back on them today in Game 1 of this double-header with the pitching matchup even more in their favor.  Eduardo Rodriquez has a 4.02 ERA in 16 starts this season, and he's 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts.  Rodriquez also has a 4.02 ERA in 10 career starts against Seattle.

Chris Flexen lost his starting job at 7-9 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.368 WHIP in 21 starts this season, and 4-4 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.331 WHIP in nine home starts.  Flexen is just making a spot start for the Mariners as they try to keep their rotation fresh for the playoffs.  That clearly shows they don't care about winning these games today.

Seattle is a woeful 19-22 (-21.3 Units) as a home favorite of -150 or higher over the last two seasons.  Take the Tigers in Game 1 of this double-header Tuesday.

15* AL Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +220

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall with seven wins as underdogs.  The Seattle Mariners have already clinched a playoff spot, and they really don't have much to play for in this series.  They should not be this big of a favorite over a hot team like Detroit as a result.

Bryan Gardia is 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.244 WHIP in three starts this season despite facing three playoff teams in the Guardians, Rays and Blue Jays.  I think he'll hold his own against the Mariners as well.  George Kirby has allowed 6 earned runs and 16 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Texas and Oakland.

Seattle is a woeful 8-10 (-11.8 Units) as a favorite of -175 to -250 this season.  The Mariners are 1-7 in their last eight during Game 1 of a series.  Detroit is 8-1 in its last nine games overall.  Take the Tigers Monday.

20* Rams/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on San Francisco PK

The San Francisco 49ers should be 3-0.  Instead, they are 1-2 and we are now getting value with them as basically a pick 'em at home against the Los Angeles Rams.  We'll take advantage and back the 49ers as they are the better team, more motivated team.

The 49ers outgained the Bears by 127 yards in Week 1 but lost.  They outgained the Seahawks by 157 yards in Week 2 and won 27-7.  And last week they outgained the Broncos by 6 yards on the road but lost, giving up a last-minute TD drive to fall 11-10.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the 49ers now.

The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play allowed, giving up just 3.9 yards per play.  They rank 2nd in total defense, allowing just 227.0 yards per game.  I would argue they have the best defense in the NFL, and I love backing elite defensive teams because they are the most trustworthy.

Of course Jimmy G has been rusty in his first 1.5 games after taking over for Trey Lance.  But the 49ers have a great running game they can rely on until he finds his rhythm.  I expect Jimmy G to be much sharper this week at home against the Rams with extra time to get ready for this Monday Night tilt.

The Rams just aren't the team they were last year when they won the Super Bowl.  They lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason, and have lost a couple more to injury now.  The 49ers will own them up front defensively, which is where this game will be won.  Matthew Stafford struggles against teams that can get pressure without blitzing, just like he did against the Bills in Week 1 when they lost 31-10.

The Rams nearly lost to the Falcons at home in Week 2, winning 31-27 as 10.5-point favorites.  And last week they played one of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cardinals and only won 20-12.  Their offense isn't sharp, ranking just 25th in total offense at 306.3 yards per game.  Their defense could be without three of their top four cornerbacks, and they are weak at linebacker.  The Rams lost a lot in the offseason, and have lost even more to injury thus far in 2022.

The 49ers own the Rams, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The lone loss? A 20-17 loss in the NFC Championship Game last year.  So they will be out for revenge from that defeat that cost them a trip to the Super Bowl.  They will also be pissed off for how they lost to the Broncos last week.  Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week and to continue their dominance of the Rams.

The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The 49ers are 34-13 ATS in their last 47 Monday Night Football games.  The Rams are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following two or more consecutive wins.  San Francisco is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games following an upset loss as a road favorite.  Roll with the 49ers Monday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers ML -120

The Arizona Cardinals are broken.  They have played 11 poor quarters of football and one good one, which is the only reason they aren't 0-3.  They erased a 23-7 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat the Raiders 29-23 (OT), a game that was gifted to them by the refs.  The Raiders are 0-3 on the season.  They other losses came 21-44 at home to Kansas City, which hasn't looked good since that win.  And they lost 20-12 at home to the Rams, who were blown out 41-7 by the Bills and nearly lost to the Falcons as a double-digit favorite.

Injuries are really hurting the Cardinals.  DeAndre Hopkins is out, AJ Green is doubtful and Rondale Moore is questionable, which are Kyler Murray's three biggest weapons on offense.  He is having to try to do too much, and his task gets even tougher this week against a very good Carolina Panthers defense.  The Panthers are only allowing 19.7 points per game and holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages.

Conversely, Carolina could easily be 3-0.  They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1.  They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play.  And last week they got in the win column with a 22-14 home victory over the New Orleans Saints in a game they led 13-0 entering the 4th quarter and controlled throughout.

The Panthers clearly have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  The Cardinals are getting gashed defensively, allowing 29.0 points per game 387.7 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  They are allowing 0.8 yards per play more than their opponents average on the season.  They are broken on both sides of the football, while the Panthers are only struggling on offense.  This line should be much closer to Carolina -3 instead of a PK.

The Panthers own the Cardinals, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with all six wins by double-digits!  That includes a 34-10 upset road win last season.  The home team is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 7.5

The Toronto Blue Jays can cover this total on their own Sunday.  They won 9-0 in Game 1 and 10-0 in Game 2 against the Boston Red Sox.  Look for them to crush Michael Wacha in this one as well.

Wacha allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Orioles.  Wacha is 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 11 earned runs in 17 innings.  I don't expect the Red Sox to get shut out again today, so they will help contribute to this total as well.

The OVER is 7-1 in Red Sox last eight games following a loss.  The OVER is 5-0 in Red Sox last five road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 10-4-1 in Blue Jays last 15 games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Toronto.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.