Brandon Lee

10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Arizona State +10)

The value here is with the Sun Devils as a double-digit dog once again. Arizona State is a team that continues to be undervalued, despite just beating the No. 5 team in the country. A big reason for that is they haven’t been a serious threat in the Pac-12 for years and were just 5-7 a season ago.

Utah is getting a lot of love for how they have played to start the year, most notably their near upsets in their last two games against Stanford and USC. What I think the public is overlooking here is that this is a really tough spot for the Utes.

They just laid everything they had on the line against the Trojans. To let a 14-point lead slip away and then miss an opportunity to win the game on a 2-point play is about as gut-wrenching a defeat as you will find. It’s a lot harder to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a close defeat. Especially when it’s a game you think you should have won.

At the same time, I don’t know that the Utes would deserve to be laying more than a touchdown had they beat USC last week. I believe we are seeing Utah way overvalued simply because of the fact that they haven’t lost a game against the spread (5-0-1 ATS).

This is also a good matchup for Arizona State. While Utah’s defense is strong, they are much better at stopping the run than the pass. The Utes are just 77th against the pass compared to 30th against the run. Arizona State’s offense features the 25th ranked passing attack.

Let’s also not overlook how well Arizona State’s defense played against Washington. The Sun Devils held the Huskies to just 230 total yards and 14 first downs. The overall defensive numbers aren’t great, but that’s understandable given they have played the likes of Texas Tech, Oregon (prior to Justin Herbert getting hurt) and Stanford.

The Sun Devils are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs a team with a winning record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after holding their previous opponent to less than 20 points. I would take the points here, but also don’t hate a little extra on the money line. Give me the Sun Devils +10! 

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100* NCAAF REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR 
50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD TOTAL NO BRAINER
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT

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40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 54.5) 

I’ve played the UNDER each of the last 4 weeks in Mississippi State games and have won 3 of them. I again see a ton of value with this total and these two teams going under the mark.

Don’t be fooled by the 40-points that Kentucky put on the board in their last game against Missouri, as the Tigers are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. The 34-points that they allowed to Missouri was also out of character, as they hadn’t allowed more than 28 in each of their first 5 and held 4 of those to 20 or less. It was also the first time the Wildcats had scored more than 27-points in a single game this season.

Kentucky’s offense comes in ranked 107th in the country at just 349 ypg. I don’t see them having much luck here against a Bulldogs defense that has looked great outside of two games against Auburn and Georgia. Even with those poor showings, they are still 8th in the nation, giving up a mere 285 ypg.

Mississippi State’s offense has been hit or miss and their success has hindered greatly on their ability to run the ball. The Bulldogs have rushed for 280+ yards in 4 games and each of those had at least 35 points. In games where they have failed to reach 200 yards they haven’t scored more than 10. Kentucky’s defense is built to stop the run, as they come in 10th in the nation, allowing just 97.2 ypg on the ground.

UNDER is 38-19 in Mississippi State’s last 57 games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points, which includes a perfect 6-0 mark at home over the last 3 seasons when playing with a total in this range. UNDER is also 8-3 in the Wildcats last 11 road games and 9-1-1 in their last 11 after throwing for 280+ yards in their previous game. Give me the UNDER 54.5! 

50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Iowa St +7.5)

The decision to hire Matt Campbell is paying off sooner than expected. After going just 3-9 in his first year on the job, Campbell has ISU sitting at 4-2 through their first 6 games and looking every bit the part of a bowl team.

Keep in mind they had a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter of an OT loss at home to Iowa and were right there with Texas at home in their other defeat.

This team is playing with all kinds of confidence right now and I look for them to not only go into Texas Tech and keep it close, but win this game outright.

While ISU is riding a wave of momentum, the Red Raiders will likely have a hard time picking themselves off the mat after blowing that 18-point 2nd half lead against the Mountaineers.

While neither team is great defensively, Iowa State comes in a respectable 42nd in total defense, giving up just 356 ypg (nearly 100 yards less than what they allowed last year). Texas Tech on the other hand is 101st in total defense, giving up 430.5 ypg.

There’s also a great system in play favoring a play on the Cyclones. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a conference win by 10 or more are 48-17 (74%) against the spread when matchup up with an opponent that is coming off a road game where both teams scored 31 or more points.

Iowa State is also a strong 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record, while the Red Raiders are a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs a team that has a winning road record (ISU is 2-0 on the road). Give me the Cyclones +7.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Duke -8) 

I think we are actually getting value here with the Blue Devils, as I think they should be closer two a two touchdown favorite. This is the perfect time to jump back on Duke, who enters having lost 3 straight and failed to cover in all 3. They were a lot more competitive than the final looked in a 31-6 defeat to Miami at home. They then lost by 7 on the road against an improved Virginia team and underrated Florida State team. 

I think Duke is a lot closer to the top half of the league than people think. Keep in mind they rolled Northwestern at home 41-17. Pitt on the other hand is near the bottom half of the league this season. They are just 2-5 and the two wins have come against Rice and Youngstown St. They just lost by 18 at home to NC State and are also without starting quarterback Max Browne, who was one of the bright spots offensively, completing 71% of his attempts. 

Even when Browne was playing well the offense has not been anything close to what we saw a year ago under coordinator Matt Canada. He left for LSU and Pitt's only game this season with more than 30 points is against Rice, who is 114th in scoring defense (36.3 ppg). Backup quarterbacks Ben Dinucci and Kenny Pickett have both looked bad.

That's not good as this Duke defense isn't going to let them run the ball. The Blue Devils rank 16th in the nation against the run, giving up just 108.0 ypg. Pitts defense isn't good enough to be on the field the entire game. Give me Duke -8! 

40* EARLY BIRD NCAAF TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 47) 

I think these two fly by this low total. Purdue is a much better offensive team than the numbers would suggest. The Boilermakers last 3 games have come against 3 teams that all rank inside the Top 30 in the country in total defense, with two of those (Wisconsin & Michigan) teams ranking in the Top 10.

The last time they faced a sub-par defense, Purdue had nearly 500 yards of total offense on the road against Missouri. Keep in mind that the offense is only going to keep getting better under head coach Jeff Brohm, who is one of the bright offensive minds in the game.

I think we see the Boilermakers score 30+ in this one without much problem. At the same time, I think coming off that huge game against Wisconsin and a much bigger game at home against Nebraska on deck, I look for the Purdue defense to be caught off guard by Rutgers here.

The Scarlet Knights just piled on 274 rushing yards against Illinois and have one of the top playmakers in the conference at wide receiver in Janarion Grant. Rutgers should have another strong game on the ground, as Purdue ranks just 84th in the country against the run (175.0 ypg).

OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the Boilermakers last 5 after they scored fewer than 20 points in their previous game and 6-1 in their last 7 off a SU loss and 7-0 in their last 7 off a cover where they lost outright as an underdog. Give me the OVER 47!

100* NCAAF REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR (FSU -7) 

This might seem like a big number for FSU to be laying, even at home, against a team that beat them by 43 points last year. However, it’s that embarrassing loss last season that has me siding with the Seminoles in this one.

Keep in mind that win last year came with Florida State ranked #2. That’s also one of the rare times that the Seminoles were on the losing end of a blowout loss. You can bet that FSU has had this one circled on the calendar since the schedule was released.

Louisville got a lot of love coming into the season because of the fact they were returning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson at quarterback. While Jackson has continued to put incredible numbers, the rest of the team has not played up to their potential. Especially the defense, which is giving up almost a touchdown more per game. I mean they just let Boston College of all teams score 45 with 555 yards of total offense and 27 first downs.

I know this isn’t the same Florida State team without Deondre Francois, but there’s still a ton of talent on this team. We are also now in the 5th start for freshman James Blackmon. He showed some flashes and this could be his breakout game against a Cardinals secondary that has allowed 290+ yards four times already this season. They also have allowed 290+ yards on the ground twice, so it’s not like Blackmon will have to do it all.

At the same time, I think we are going to see Florida State’s defense show up in a big way for this one. A lot of the guys who will take the field got it handed to them by Jackson and the Cardinals. They are much improved on that side and come in ranked 28th in the country in total defense. Not to mention we have seen Jackson and the Louisville offense struggle against the better defenses they have faced.

FSU is 13-4-1 ATS after a game where they scored fewer than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win. Louisville is now 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Give me the Seminoles -7!