9* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL DESTROYER

PLAY ON: Vandy/Kentucky OVER 44.5

9* NCAAF MAC ATTACK ATS NO-BRAINER

PLAY ON: FIU/Liberty UNDER 55 

10* NCAAF OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK 

PLAY ON: Houston/TCU OVER 51.5

College Football Over/Under TOTAL DESTROYER

PLAY ON: TCU/Kansas OVER 58.5

College Football Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER

PLAY ON: Nebraska/Purdue OVER 47.5 

9* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR 

PLAY ON: LSU/S Carolina OVER 48

9* NCAAF LATE NIGHT SHARP TOTAL

PLAY ON: Miss St/Arizona St OVER 59.5

9* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER

PLAY ON: Colorado/Nebraska OVER 57

10* NCAAF NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON: Tenn/NC State OVER 61

9* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL DESTROYER 

PLAY ON: Ga Tech/Syracuse OVER 61

9* NCAAF Total ANNIHILATOR

PLAY ON: Boise St/Ga Southern UNDER 57

9* NCAAF Over/Under TOTAL DESTROYER

PLAY ON: Kent St/Pittsburgh OVER 55

10* NCAAF Total PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON: Penn St/W Virginia OVER 51.5

10* NCAAF Sharp Money MASSACRE

PLAY ON: TCU/Stanford OVER 59.5

10* NCAAF Over/Under NO-BRAINER

PLAY ON: ND State/Colorado OVER 60.5

10* NCAAF "Week Zero" VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON: FSU/GA TECH OVER 55

10* NCAAF Liberty Bowl TOP PLAY 

PLAY ON: Memphis/Iowa St OVER 57.5

10* NCAAF Pre-Christmas PLAY OF THE YEAR 

PLAY ON: Arkansas St/N Illinois OVER 53.5

9* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER

PLAY ON: Louisville/Florida St UNDER 47.5

10* NCAAF Championship PLAY OF THE YEAR

PLAY ON: Alabama/Georgia OVER 55

9* NCAAF Conf Champ TOTAL ANNIHILATOR

PLAY ON: Oklahoma St/Texas OVER 54.5

9* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER

PLAY ON: Baylor/TCU OVER 61

9* NCAAF Friday Night Total ANNIHILATOR 

PLAY ON: USF/UTSA OVER 66.5

9* NCAAF Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR 

PLAY ON: OVER 45.5

9* NCAAF Virginia/Louisville SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON VIRGINIA/LOUISVILLE OVER 50.5

9* NCAAF UCLA/Arizona SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON UCLA/ARIZONA UNDER 50.5

9* NCAAF Oregon St/Colorado VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON OREGON ST/COLORADO OVER 62

10* NCAAF Utah/USC VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON UTAH/USC OVER 53

9* NCAAF - Wisconsin/Illinois SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS UNDER 41

9* NCAAF - Oklahoma St/W Virginia SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON OKLAHOMA ST/W VIRGINIA OVER 49

9* NCAAF - BC/Ga Tech SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON BC/GA TECH OVER 57.5

10* NCAAF - Miss St/Arkansas VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON MISS ST/ARKANSAS OVER 47.5

10* NCAAF S Miss/S Alabama VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON SOUTHERN MISS/SOUTH ALABAMA UNDER 51.5

10* NCAAF TCU/Iowa St VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON TCU/IOWA STATE OVER 52

9* NCAAF LSU/Missouri SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON LSU/MISSOURI OVER 64

10* NCAAF Big 12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR 

PLAY ON OKLAHOMA/TEXAS UNDER 60.5

9* NCAAF S Carolina/Tennessee SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON S CAROLINA/TENNESSEE UNDER 63.5

9* NCAAF Iowa St/Oklahoma SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON ISU/OKLAHOMA OVER 48

9* NCAAF Georgia/Auburn SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON GEORGIA/AUBURN UNDER 47

10* NCAAF SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR 

PLAY ON TEXAS A&M/ARKANSAS OVER 54.5

9* NCAAF Ohio St/Notre Dame SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON OHIO St/NOTRE DAME UNDER 55.5

9* NCAAF Oregon St/Washington St SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON OREGON STATE/WASHINGTON STATE OVER 55.5

10* Auburn/Texas A&M SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON AUBURN/TEXAS A&M OVER 51

10* NCAAF Boise St/SDST MWC TOTAL OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON BOISE ST/SAN DIEGO ST UNDER 46.5 

10* NCAAF Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR 

PLAY ON COLORADO ST/COLORADO OVER 59

9* NCAAF TCU/Houston SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON TCU/HOUSTON OVER 64

9* NCAAF Texas A&M/Miami SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON TEXAS A&M/MIAMI OVER 51

9* NCAAF Boise St/Washington SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON BOISE ST/WASHINGTON OVER 58.5

10* National Championship VEGAS INSIDER: TCU/Georgia OVER 63.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 63.5 in Monday's National Championship Game between TCU and Georgia. We saw all kinds of points being scored in the two Semifinal matchups with TCU beating Michigan 51-45 and Georgia knocking off Ohio State 42-41. I don't know if we will see this thing get into the 80's, but there should be no problem eclipsing the total of 63.5. 

TCU is simply built for high-scoring games. They have an elite offense and a sub-par defense. I don't see Georgia having any problems moving the ball up and down the field on this Horned Frogs stop unit. They were fortunate to only give up 45 points to the Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl. 

The TCU offense did show me something with how well they moved the ball against a very good Michigan defense. The same Wolverines defense that held a potent Ohio State offense to just 23 points, giving up only 3 points in the 2nd half. We just saw the Buckeyes put up 41 on Georgia's defense. Not to mention the Bulldogs gave up 30 to LSU in the SEC title game. I think TCU can easily get into the 30s and I expect Georgia to as well. Give me the OVER 63.5! 

9* NCAAF Boca Raton Bowl NO-BRAINER: Toledo/Liberty OVER 52.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 52.5 in Tuesday's matchup between the Toledo Rockets and Liberty Flames in the Boca Raton Bowl. I'm expecting a lot of fireworks in this one, as we have two fast-paced offenses that generate a bunch of explosive plays on the ground and thru the air against two defenses that have struggled on defense giving up the big play. 

Liberty's defense finished the season ranked 124th in explosive rushing allowed and 103rd in explosive pass plays allowed. Toledo was 114th in explosive rush allowed and 66th in explosive pass allowed. 

As for the tempo of this game, the Flames rank 37th in the FBS running a play every 24.9 seconds and the Rockets are 25th at 24.0 seconds between plays. So while both of these teams do like to run the ball, both teams should get more than enough possessions on offense to push this past the low total. Give me the OVER 52.5! 

9* NCAAF Myrtle Beach Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: UConn/Marshall UNDER 41

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 41 in Monday's game between UConn and Marshall at the Myrtle Beach Bowl. I just don't see much offense taking place in this one. I really have my concerns for the UConn offense. The Huskies are facing a very good Thundering Herd defense. Marshall only gave up 16.2 ppg, 293 ypg and 4.6 yards/play. That was against teams who on average put up 26.2 ppg, 293 ypg and 5.6 yards/play. 

The other big thing with that Marshall defense is how good they are at stopping the run. Thundering Herd only gave up 90 ypg and 2.8 yards/carry to opposing offenses this season. That's a problem for UConn, as they rely heavily on the run game to move the football. Huskies only threw it an average of 20 times a game and completed just 59.3% of those attempts for 107 ypg. 

It is a little better matchup for the Marshall offense, who also love to run the football, as UConn has had it's troubles at times this year stopping the run. However, this is also a Thundering Herd offense that was terrible at finishing drives with TDs. Marshall was 127th in the country in scoring opportunities, averaging just 2.7 points per trip inside the opponents 40-yard line. 

I just think with both teams wanting to run the football at all cost and the struggles both of these teams figure to have finding the endzone, a lot is going to have to go right for these two teams to eclipse the 40-point mark. Give me the UNDER 41! 

10* NCAAF Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Iowa St/TCU UNDER 48

I really like the UNDER 48 in Saturday's Big 12 shodown that has Iowa State going on the road to face TCU. I think the only real concern here is that the Cyclones don't show up given last week's 10-14 loss to Texas Tech ended any hope they had of getting to 6 wins and a bowl game. 

It's certainly a possibility and if that's the case we are probably in trouble. However, I feel pretty good about ISU not just throwing in the towel. Not against TCU. It would be one thing if TCU was 9-2 and needing this win to get to the Big 12 title game. The Horned Frogs are undefeated and ranked No. 4 in the country. I got to think ISU will be motivated here to put that perfect season to rest and really treat this game like it's their Super Bowl given it's the last time they will be on the field together. 

That to me is the key, because if the Cyclones defense shows up, there doesn't figure to be a lot of points scored in this game because this ISU defense is elite and their offense is at the other end of the spectrum. Cyclones have scored 21 or fewer points in more games than they have eclipsed that mark. I just don't see them doing a lot against this TCU defense. 

As for the Cyclones defense, I think they are better or at least equal to the Texas defense that held this TCU team to just 17 points and 284 total yards a couple weeks back. Give me the UNDER 48! 

8* NCAAF Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT: Texas Tech/Iowa St UNDER 47.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 47.5 in Saturday's Big 12 matchup between Texas Tech and Iowa State. I think these two teams are going to have a hard time getting to 40 points let alone 48. 

The Cyclones are the definition of an UNDER team, as they have an elite defense paired with an offense that struggles do much of anything. ISU is giving up just 16.7 ppg and 4.7 yards/play on the defensive side of the ball, while scoring just 21.8 ppg and gaining a mere 5.1 yards/play on offense. The UNDER has cashed in 8 of their 10 games this season. 

So while Texas Tech comes in averaging 33.8 ppg and giving up 29.6 ppg, I don't think we are going to see the Red Raiders do a whole lot offensively. I also think their defense is going to have no problem shutting down this ISU offense. 

Lastly, it's not exactly going to be ideal scoring conditions in Ames for this game. Temps are expected to be in the low teens with the wind chill in the single digits. Give me the UNDER 47.5! 

10* NCAAF AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Tulsa/Memphis OVER 61.5 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 61.5 in Thursday's American Athletic matchup between Tulsa and Memphis. I don't see these two teams having any problem eclipsing this number. Both of these teams have struggled on the defensive side of the ball. Tulsa is giving up 33 ppg and 404 ypg this season and have allowed 36 ppg on the road. Memphis is giving up 31.6 ppg and 412 ypg. They have given up 40 ppg over their last 3.

The only two FBS teams Tulsa has held under 30 points, are Temple who is anemic on offense and Tulane, who plays extremely slow and probably should have had more than the 27 they scored given they had over 480 yards with 357 on the ground. Teams have been able to really do whatever they want against this defense. I don't see them slowing down this Memphis on the road. The Tigers are putting up 33.9 ppg and on average are scoring 8.2 ppg more than what their opponent has allowed. 

Memphis has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 4 games and 6 of their last 7. The only exception coming against Temple. Tulsa has scored 27 or more in 6 of their 9 games this season. 

These are also going to be two tired defenses, as both of these teams are playing this game on just 4 days of rest. Give me the OVER 61.5! 

9* NCAAF Wednesday MACtion NO-BRAINER: Kent St/Bowling Green OVER 55.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 55.5 in Wednesday's MAC matchup between Kent State and Bowling Green. I like these two teams to get into the 60s as I think both of these offenses are in store for big games.

Kent State's defense is awful. The Golden Flashes are giving up 31.6 ppg, 455 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. Those numbers are not skewed by a tough non-conference slate, as they are giving up 31.4 ppg, 460 ypg and the same 6.3 yards/play in conference games. The have allowed at least 27 points in each of their last 4 games and that includes games against some pretty average offenses in Miami (OH), Akron and Ball State. 

The key here is Kent State's "Flash Fast" run heavy offense should be able to get moving at warp speed in this one. Bowling Green is giving up 159 ypg and 4.5 yards/carry vs the run. Back in early October we saw a good Buffalo rushing attack put up 293 yards on the ground against them. 

Last time these two teams played at Bowling Green, the two combined for 86 points with a total of just 56.5. I'm not saying we get into the 80s, but I think there's enough value in the 50s to make a pretty strong play on this one. Give me the OVER 55.5! 

10* NCAAF Tuesday MACtion VEGAS INSIDER: Ohio/Miami (OH) OVER 50.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 50.5 in Tuesday's MAC matchup between Ohio and Miami (OH). These two teams combined for 68 points in the Bobcats 35-33 win over the RedHawks a season ago. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw a similar high-scoring game in the rematch, making this an easy play for me with a total in the low 50's. 

l just don't see Miami (OH) having an answer for Bobcats' quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has put up sensational numbers in 2022. Rourke is averaging over 300 yards/game thru the air with a 21-4 TD-INT ratio and a stellar 9.0 yards/pass attempt. His ability to throw the ball plays right into the weakness of this RedHawks defense, which is just not good at creating havoc in the passing game. 

On the flip side of this, I like Miami's offense to also have a lot of success throwing the football in this game. The RedHawks just recently got back starting quarterback Brett Gabbert, who was hurt in their opener against Kentucky. Gabbert has been a little rusty in his first two starts back, but will be up against a Ohio defense that has struggled to get stops this season. The Bobcats are giving up 33.2 ppg, 483 ypg and 6.5 yards/play. They have been especially bad against the pass, allowing opposing QBs to complete 66.3% of their attempts with a 8.3 average per attempt. Give me the OVER 50.5! 

10* NCAAF - Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER: Oregon St/Washington UNDER 54.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 54.5 in Friday's Pac-12 matchup between Washington and Oregon State. I just don't see this being a shootout. I know Washington has played in a lot of high-scoring games, but this Oregon State defense really matches up well with what the Huskies like to do offensively.

Washington is all about attacking teams thru the air. They come in averaging 379 passing yards/game. Passing on this Oregon State defense is not easy. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 55.6% of their attempts against the Beavers and that's against QBs that on average are completing 62.5% of their attempts. Mother Nature could also slow down the Huskies ariel attack, as there will be 15-20 mph with the real feel in the upper 30s. 

Oregon State on the other hand is going to establish the run and as long as they are within striking distance, I don't see them abandoning it. Beavers on average run 66 plays and 39 (59%) of those are runs. They are pretty good at it, averaging 5.0 yards/carry. I think they can move the chains on the ground, but I also think Washington's run defense is good enough to limit the explosive plays and create the negative plays to end drives. Give me the UNDER 54.5! 

9* NCAAF MACtion Total NO-BRAINER: Buffalo/Ohio OVER 58.5

I will take my chances with the OVER 58.5 in Tuesday's MACaction that has Buffalo visiting Ohio. I just don't think these two teams will have any problem getting to 60 points.

The Bulls are a perfect 4-0 in MAC play behind one of the leagues top offensive units. Buffalo comes in averaging 36.5 ppg and 413.5 ypg in their 4 conference games. That offense will be up against one of the worst defenses in the MAC in Ohio. For the season the Bobcats are allowing 34.4 ppg, 510 ypg and 6.9 yards/play. They are giving up 4.9 yards/carry vs the run, while opposing QBs are completing 69% and averaging 8.9 yards/attempt. 

The key here is I think Ohio's offense has the ability to go score-for-score with Buffalo in this one. The Bobcats aren't too far behind Buffalo's offense in league play. Ohio is averaging 34.0 ppg, 440 ypg and 7.0 yards/play in MAC play. They have been especially good this year on offense at home, scoring 44.8 ppg on 524 ypg and 7.8 yards/play. Give me the OVER 58.5! 

9* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Pitt/Louisville OVER 55

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 55 in Saturday's ACC matchup between Louisville and Pittsburgh. I look for both of these offenses to be able to move the ball up and down the field. Louisville has scored 30+ points in each of their last 4 games. The Cardinals are averaging 36.0 ppg, 518 ypg and 6.7 yards/play at home this year. Pitt's defense has allowed at least 26 points in all 4 of their games this season vs Power 5 teams. 

The Panthers can also light up the scoreboard. Pitt is putting up 35.0 ppg, 431 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. Playing on the road has not hindered their offense, as they are scoring 34.0 ppg, putting up 419 ypg and averaging 6.8 yards/play away home this year. Louisville's defense is giving up just 22.3 ppg, but we have seen them struggle against the better offenses, giving up 31 to Syracuse, 35 to Florida State and 34 to Boston College. 

OVER has gone an impressive 20-7 in Pitt's last 27 games on Saturday, as the books just haven't been able to set the number right. OVER is also 9-2 in Pitt's last 11 after playing at home and a perfect 6-0 the last 3 seasons when Louisville is coming off a win by 17 or more. Give me the OVER 55! 

8* NCAAF Thursday Night Total NO-BRAINER: Virginia/Ga Tech OVER 47

I'll take my chances with the OVER 47 in Thursday's ACC matchup that has Georgia Tech hosting Virginia. I just feel the total here is too low. It's hard to expect offense when you have two teams that have struggled to score. Georgia Tech is scoring just 17.3 ppg and Virginia is barely better at 17.8 ppg. One thing that gets overlooked with those scoring outputs is that both of these teams have faced a number of strong defensive teams to start the year. Virginia's opponents on average are only giving up 21.1 ppg and the Yellow Jackets' opponents are allowing 22.5 ppg. 

Virginia's defense is only giving up 24.8 ppg, but to me that is misleading. Their first 3 games were against Richmond, Illinois and Old Dominion. Fighting Illini are a good team, but are not a team that lights up the scoreboard. They did hold Syracuse to 22, but that was aided greatly by 4 Orange turnovers. In their last two games they have allowed 38 to Duke and 34 to Louisville. 

You also have to look at last year's meeting between these two teams. Neither defense had an answer for the opposing offense in a 48-40 Virginia win. The two combined for over 1,200 yards with both teams going for 240+ on the ground and 300+ thru the air. I don't think it's asking a lot for them to get to 50 in this one. Give me the OVER 47! 

8* NCAAF - Friday Night SHARP STAKE: Navy/SMU Over 56.5

I'm going to take my chances with the OVER 56.5 in Friday's AAC matchup between Navy and SMU. I'm always a little hesitant taking an OVER with an option team like Navy. You need them to be able to score or they just eat up too much clock and limit the number of possessions. 

I just think they are going to be able to get that run game going against what I have to think is a very deflated SMU team. The Mustangs just finished up a brutal 3 game stretch that saw them play at Maryland, home vs TCU and then @ UCF. Not only that, but they got the defending champs on deck with a home game against Cincinnati next week. I just have a hard time believing the players have been 100% bought in to preparing for this Navy option attack. 

Keep in mind we have seen SMU give up 160 or more rushing yards in 4 of their 5 games. The only team they held under that mark was Lamar. 

On the flip side of this, Navy's defense is really strong up front and are not an easy team to run against. However, they are vulnerable to strong passing attacks. SMU has one of the best passing offenses in the country, averaging 355 ypg and 7.8 yards/attempt. 

Mustangs have scored at least 28 in 6 straight meetings in the series. The last 3 times these teams have played at SMU, the two have combined for 106 (2016), 61 (2018) and 88 (2020) points. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

9* NCAAF Thursday Night NO-BRAINER: Baylor/W Virginia UNDER 55

I really like the UNDER 55 in Thursday's Big 12 showdown between Baylor and West Virginia. I think this total at the very least should be in the high 40's. I just don't see this developing into a shootout. 

I know West Virginia has looked good offensively. They are scoring 38.2 ppg and putting up 453 ypg. However, this will be their toughest challenge to date. Even after giving up 36 to Oklahoma, which was a bit misleading), they are still allowing just 20.6 ppg and 320 ypg vs teams who average 27.1 ppg and 361 ypg.

They have really been outstanding against the run and the Mountaineers ground game is down their most productive running back CJ Donaldson, who has rushed for 6.9 ypg and 6 TDs. I see a noticeable decline tp backups Tony Mathis (4.2 yards/carry) and Justin Johnson Jr. (4.7 ypg). 

I just have a hard time seeing WV's offense staying ahead of the chains and getting big pass plays when Baylor knows that's their only real threat to move the ball. 

On the other side of this, I do think the Mountaineers' defense will show up with a really big effort in this game. While I like Baylor's offense, they have looked a lot less sharp on the road (only had 289 total yards at BYU) and are going into a hostile environment at night. Bears are also an offense that seems to put together a lot of long drives. A couple games back against ISU they had 3 different scoring drives that went 10+ plays and ate up more than 5 minutes of the clock. 

Lastly, these two teams are both coming off of a bye week, which means they have had several extra days to prepare fo this game. More times than not that extra prep helps the defense. Give me the UNDER 55! 

10* NCAAF - Late Night TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Arizona/Oregon OVER 69.5

I love the OVER 69.5 in Saturday's late night action out of the Pac-12 between No. 12 Oregon and Arizona. I'm not so sure the books can set a total high enough for this one. If it wasn't for the fact that the Ducks scored just 3-points in that ugly opening loss to Georgia, I think it would be at the very least in the mid 70s. 

In the 4 games since getting completely shutdown by the defending champs, Oregon has put up 70 points and 604 total yards against Eastern Washington, 41 points and 439 yards on BYU, 44 points and 624 yards on Washington State (Cougars have allowed 20 or fewer in every other game) and 45 points and 515 yards in last week's blowout win over Stanford. 

It feels like anything less than 40 points against this Arizona defense would be a disappointment. In the Wildcats two conference games, they have allowed 49 points to Cal and 20 points to Colorado. In Cal's 3 other games vs a FBS opponent they have scored a combined 46 points. The Buffaloes 20-points they scored on the Wildcats was a season-high. Arizona is giving up 31.2 ppg vs teams who on average score 24.9 ppg. 

They key here is think the Wildcats have the talent at quarterback and skill positions to put up enough points to push this thing well past the mark. Arizona has scored at least 31 points in all but one game against a very good Mississippi State defense. They are averaging 481 ypg and 6.6 yards/play. 

Oregon's defense has been solid in their 3 home games, but they gave up that 49 points on a neutral site to Georgia, which is looking worse and worse with how the Bulldogs have struggled offensively of late and 41 at Washington State. This could very well end up being the highest scoring game on the board this Saturday. Give me the OVER 69.5! 

9* NCAAF Over/Under TOTAL KNOCKOUT: USC/Washington St OVER 65.5

I don't see Washington State and USC having any problem eclipsing the high total here of 65.5. I'm a bit shocked this total isn't pushing 70 given the 41-44 game between Washington State and Oregon a couple weeks back. 

That to me is the biggest indicator of how this matchup will play out. USC is every good offensively as the Ducks and Oregon not only scored 44 points they put up 624 total yards. Yes, the Cougars have held their other 4 opponents all under 20 points, but those opponents were all bad offensive teams in Idaho, Wisconsin, Colorado St and Cal. 

If USC didn't have that ugly offensive showing on the road at Oregon State a couple weeks back where they only managed 17 points, I think this total would easily be in the 70s because the Trojans have scored at least 41 in every other game. 

I just think the Beavers were lucky to only give up 17 in that game. In just the 1st half of that game, USC had the ball just 5 times. Really only 4, as one of those drives started with less than a minute to play in the 1st half. They turned it over on downs on their opening drive, missed a FG on their second drive after getting into the redzone and had to settle for a field goal on another drive. 

They got as far as the Oregon State 32-yard line before punting on their opening drive of the 2nd half. They finally got it going with two TDs in the final 20 minutes of play.

Not only do I think that Washington State won't be able to stop USC from scoring, especially on the road, but I think the Cougars can do some damage of their own offensively. The Trojans are not as good defensively as the numbers would suggest, as their defense has feasted off a turnovers. USC has a staggering +14 TO differential thru 5 games. 

If Arizona State can go on the road and put up 25 points against USC, Washington State at the very least should be able to match that. I think they get into the 30s, as I think we could see the Trojans come out a bit flat here looking ahead to next week's big road game at Utah. Give me the OVER 65.5! 

9* NCAAF - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Wisconsin/Northwestern UNDER 44.5

I'm going to take the UNDER 44.5 in Saturday's Big Ten matchup between West rivals Wisconsin and Northwestern. This one shouldn't need a ton of explanation, but I'll go ahead and break it down for why I like a low-scoring game. 

It's not been a good start to the season for Wisconsin. The Badgers just lost 10-34 at home to Illinois to fall to 2-3. They also lost at home to Washington State 14-17. It was enough to make a change at head coach. Paul Chryst has been shown the door and defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is now the interim. 

With what feels like a make or break point of their season, I would be shocked if the Badgers didn't show up with their best effort. I just have a hard time seeing this awful Northwestern offense being able to do much of anything offensively in this game. The Wildcats were gifted 5 turnovers last week against Penn State and still only managed to score 7 points. 

The key here is I still think there's serious problems with the Wisconsin offense. Take away the 38 points they scored against a FCS foe 38 and the 66 they put up on New Mexico State, the Badgers are averaging just 15 ppg. Northwestern is only giving up 24.8 ppg and that's come against teams who on average are putting up 30.3 ppg. Give me the UNDER 44.5! 

9* NCAAF Friday Night Total ANNIHILATOR: Houston/Memphis OVER 57

I'm going to take the OVER 57 in Friday's American Athletic showdown between Memphis and Houston. I just don't see these two teams having much of problem getting to 60 points. 

The OVER is 4-1 in Houston's 5 games this year with the only game not going OVER being last week's game against Tulane. A lower scoring game was to be expected against the Green Wave, as Tulane was down to their 3rd string QB and are a team that likes to try to wins games by taking the air out of the ball with their run game and defense. Each of the previous 4 games for Houston all saw at least 61 points scored. 

Big reason for that is this Houston defense is not very good. The Cougars are giving up 34.0 ppg, 410 ypg and 5.7 yards/play. They are giving up 274 passing yards/game and 7.1 yards/play. Their secondary gave up 337 yards thru the air to UTSA, 351 to Texas Tech and 334 to Rice. 

Memphis is a little more run heavy than they have been in the past, but should be able to really do as they please offensively in this game. Tigers are scoring 34.4 ppg vs teams who only give up an average of 25.1 ppg and are scoring 37.3 ppg in their 3 home games. 

At the same time, I think Houston's offense is going to be able to move the football. The offense really hasn't been the problem. The Cougars are scoring 31.0 ppg and have not faced the easiest of schedules. 

The only real legit offense Memphis has faced is Mississippi State and they gave up 49 points and 547 yards of total offense to the Bulldogs. Mississippi State didn't punt in that game until midway thru the 3rd quarter with them leading 35-3. Also note that despite only playing one legit team thru 5 games, the OVER is 4-1 in Memphis' games this year with the average combined score of 60.6. Give me the OVER 57! 

10* NCAAF Pac-12 Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Washington/UCLA UNDER 65.5

I love the UNDER 65.5 in Friday's Pac-12 showdown between No. 15 Washington and UCLA. Both of these teams come into this game with a perfect 4-0 record. The big reason we are seeing such a big total is the offensive numbers that these two teams have put up. The Huskies are scoring 44.0 ppg and 531 ypg, while the Bruins are putting up 41.8 ppg and 508 ypg. 

I don't think either of these teams will be able to sustain these numbers. Yes, Washington has two wins over Power 5 teams in Michigan State and Stanford, but both of those teams are bad defensive teams. Michigan State gave up 34 points and 508 total yards last week at home against Minnesota. USC had 505 yards and 41 points against the Cardinal and then only managed to score 17 with 357 total yards in 3-point win at Oregon State. 

As for UCLA's great offensive numbers, it's come against a super soft schedule. Bruins 4 games have come against Bowling Green, Alabama St, S Alabama and Colorado. Those teams combined are giving up an average of 38.1 ppg. 

The other big thing here is these two defenses are performing well. Washington is only giving up 19.0 ppg, 302 ypg and 4.8 yards/play. UCLA is allowing 18.0 ppg, 301 ypg and 4.4 yards/play. 

Another thing that could work against the Huskies offense, is the fact that this will be Washington's first road game of 2022. 

These two are going to need a minimum of 10 scores (9 TDs and 1 FG is 66 points) to get past this number. I just don't think the red zone efficiency is going to be at that level. Give me the UNDER 65.5! 

9* NCAAF Friday Night NO-BRAINER: Virginia/Syracuse OVER 52.5

I really like the OVER 52.5 to cash in Friday's ACC matchup between Virginia and Syracuse. I think we are getting close to a TD in terms of value, as my numbers suggest a total closer to 60.

Part of the reason I believe we are seeing a low total is the fact that the Cavaliers have seen the UNDER cash in all 3 of their games and in their one true test they scored just 3-points on the road vs Illinois. Also, while the Orange did give up 29 last week to Purdue, they did hold Malik Cunningham and a good Louisville offense to just 7 points in their opener. 

At the same time, I don't think people have quite caught on to just how improved this Syracuse offense is. We knew the Orange would be a strong running team with a back like Sean Tucker. What's taken this offense to another level is their improved passing attack.

Garrett Shrader has completed 66.2% of his attempts, is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt and has a 8-0 TD-INT ratio. Last year, Syracuse as a team averaged just 153 yards, completed 54.4% of their attempts and ended the year with their quarterbacks posting a mere 10-6 TD-INT ratio. 

I don't think it's a fluke. Orange added in former Virginia OC Robert Anae to be their new OC this year. Anae really built up that Cavaliers offense. You might be thinking it could be an advantage for Virginia to know the offense that Syracuse is running, but the Cavaliers completely overhauled their staff for new head coach Tony Elliott. 

Orange have scored at least 31 in each of their first 3 games and should easily hit that mark against what I think is a very overrated Virginia defense. The Cavaliers come in giving up just 18.3 ppg and 350 yards/game, but have played an awful ODU offense, a FCS foe in Richmond and while they held Illinois to 24, the Illini could have easily had 40 in that game. 

The big concern is how will Virginia's offense do. I'm confident they will be able to at least get into the 20s. The Cavaliers have one of the better QBs in the ACC in Brennan Armstrong, a new offensive minded coach in Elliott (former OC at Clemson) and Syracuse's defense is built more to stop the run than it is the pass. 

I also think there's a potential here that the Orange defense comes out a bit flat in this game. You got to think that crazy finish against Purdue last week took a lot out of this Syracuse team and that lack of energy can really show up on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the OVER 52.5! 

9* NCAAF Friday Night ACC NO-BRAINER: FSU/Louisville UNDER 57.5

I really like the UNDER 57.5 in Friday's ACC matchup between Florida State and Louisville. I just have a hard time seeing this turn into a shootout. Both these teams have dual threat QBs who are a much bigger threat to run than they are to pass. The threat for big plays is definitely there, but for the most part these are two offenses that want to methodically move the ball down the field. 

I came into the season extremely high on Louisville's offense, as I thought quarterback Malik Cunningham was going to take a big step forward. I just haven't seen it in his first two games. The Cardinals could do nothing in their opener at Syracuse, scoring just 7 points and gaining 334 total yards. They did manage to put up over 400 yards in their win over UCF last week, but only managed to score 20 points. 

I just don't think they are built to have success against this Florida State defense. Seminoles returned 8 starters and added in some nice pieces on defense via the portal. I was very impressed with how they played against LSU. They held a potent Tigers offense to just 348 total yards, had 4 sacks and 6 tackles for loss. They did struggle to contain LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, who had 114 yards on 16 attempts. However, the rest of the team had just 25 rushing yards on 14 attempts. 

Louisville's defense has been a bit spotty in their first two games, especially against the run, but keep in mind that both of those were on the road. Defenses usually perform better at home and typically will get a big boost in these prime time weekday games. FSU had 392 total yards and were 11 for 17 on 3rd downs, yet still only scored 24 against LSU. I think the Cardinals can keep them below 30, which should in term have this game finishing in the upper 40s/low 50s. Give me the UNDER 57.5! 

10* NCAAF - SEC Total PLAY OF THE MONTH: S Carolina/Arkansas OVER 52.5

I will take my chances with the OVER 52.5 in Saturday's SEC matchup between Arkansas and South Carolina. This to me is just way too low a total for a game involving the Razorbacks. 

Arkansas is absolutely loaded on the offensive side of the ball and it starts with sophomore quarterback KJ Jefferson, who somehow is still flying a bit under the radar. Jefferson is special and the biggest reason why the Razorbacks went 9-4 last year after not winning more than 4 games in any of the previous 4 seasons. It also helps he's playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the country. Arkansas put up 30.9 ppg and 442 ypg last year and will easily top that in 2022. 

They scored 31 points with 447 yards against Cincinnati in the opener. I know the Bearcats lost some guys on the defensive side of the ball, but that was far from a pushover for the Arkansas offense. I don't see South Carolina's defense being able to stop them, especially with the game in Fayetteville. 

The key here is I also think South Carolina's offense is poised to put up some points in this game. They gave up 438 yards (325 passing) to a Cincinnati offense that lost one of their all-time best QBs in Desmond Ridder, as well as their top back and leading receiver. 

Both starting safety Jalen Catalon and starting nickel corner Myles Slusher were hurt in that game and did not return. Good chance neither play on Saturday. 

South Carolina's offense wasn't overly impressive in their win against Georgia State, but remember they got former Oklahoma starter Spencer Rattler under center. Rattler can spark big plays and quick scores and he's also one that will take chances and give the ball away, setting up short fields and quick scores for the other side. Give me the OVER 52.5! 

10* NCAAF Friday Night TOTAL NO-BRAINER: TCU/Colorado OVER 55

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 55 in Friday's Power 5 non-conference matchup between TCU and Colorado. I don't think these two teams will have any problem getting to 60 points and it could even go into the 70s. 

A big reason I'm so high on the OVER is I think people are really sleeping on this TCU offense. The Horned Frogs brought in Sonny Dykes to replace Gary Patterson and Dykes knows how to put up points. In his last 3 years at SMU, the Mustangs put up monster numbers. Even better is Dykes was able to bring along his OC Garrett Riley. 

These two will take over an offense that returns 10 starters from a unit that averaged a misleading 28.7 ppg. I say misleading, because they averaged a healthy 436 ypg (17 more ypg than they had in 2017 when they averaged 33.6 ppg. 

They got options at quarterback with the return of starter Max Duggan and backup Chandler Morris, who transferred in from Oklahoma last year (had 461 passing yards vs Oklahoma and could overtake Duggan). 

They get back a stud RB in Kenre Miller, return their top 4 pass catchers and on paper have one of the best O-lines in the country. I think they easily average a TD more a game and really should feast on what figures to be a sub-par Colorado defense. 

They key here is I think the Buffaloes will also be able to generate some offense. Colorado isn't elite offensively, but should be greatly improved over the unit that averaged just 18.8 ppg and 257 ypg last year. TCU's defense will be improved, but they are in the first year of a new system and gave up 34.9 ppg and 462 ypg in 2021. Give me the OVER 55! 

40* (CFB) - Peach Bowl Total NO-BRAINER (Over 55.5)

I think with the news that Kenny Pickett won't play for Pitt and Kenneth Walker will sit out for Michigan State, has created some value with the OVER at just 55.5. I still think there is going to be a lot of offense and wouldn't be shocked at all if they went over the original total of 63. 

I think people just assume a team is going to implode when they lose a talent like Pickett at quarterback, but I got a lot of faith in backup Nick Patti to step in and have a big game. Patti has performed well when he's got a chance. The even bigger thing is the defense he will be up against. Michigan State's secondary is atrocious. They gave up 338 yards/game thru the air this year. 

Walker was a big part of the Spartans offense, but less running is good thing when you are taking an OVER and with star wideout Jalen Nailor expected back from a hand injury, I think Michigan State is going to be able to move the football and put up their fair share of points. Give me the OVER 55.5! 

50* (CFB) - Non-Playoffs BOWL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 54.5) 

I think the books have completely missed the mark with this total. I get that Air Force only gave up 19.1 ppg and 289 ypg on the season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule. The Falcons didn't play a single Power 5 opponent in non-conference play. 

The two best offenses they faced in MWC play were arguably Utah State and Nevada. They lost 45-49 to the Aggies and won 41-39 over the Wolfpack. 

Louisville is without a couple wideouts, but they got a top tier talent at quarterback in Malik Jackson and he's more than enough weapons to work with. 

Not only do I think the Cardinals will score a bunch, but I don't think the Louisville defense will be able to slow down Air Force's triple-option. They weren't a good run defense and have not seen an offense like this in a long time. Give me the OVER 54.5! 

50* (CFB) - Mizzu/Army MAX UNIT Top Play (Over 53) 

I think we have had a bit of perfect storm that has created a golden opportunity to play the OVER. Army is coming off that defensive battle against Navy and I just think the perception here is that with a team like the Black Knights that want to run, run and run some more, there's not going to be as much scoring. 

That can be the case if they are playing a team that can stop the run, but that's not the case here. Missouri has one of the worst run defenses in the country. They finished the year giving up 229 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry vs the run. We saw Army rush for 416 yards and score 56 points against Wake Forest, so it's not like they can't score a bunch with that offense. 

The other big thing here is Missouri's top running back Tyler Badie (led SEC in rushing) won't play and they are going to give freshman Brady Cook his first start. Not having Badie is a big deal, but I do think the Tigers got some decent backs who can step in and have success, as the Mizzu o-line should have an edge against the Army defensive front. 

As for Cook, he's played sparingly and impressed. He played in their blowout loss against Georgia and completed 14 of 19 attempts. You got to think they are going to let him sling it in this game and he's going to have to with how much the defense figures to struggle. Give me the OVER 53! 

40* (CFB) - Myrtle Beach Bowl NO-BRAINER (Under 54) 

I like the UNDER in the Myrtle Beach Bowl between Tulsa and Old Dominion. I just don't see a shootout in this game. These are two teams that offensively want to run the football and both will be up against a couple of solid run defenses. Tulsa only gives up 3.9 yards/carry, which is really impressive given they have played Cincinnati, Ohio State and Oklahoma State. ODU only gives up 3.5 yards/carry, which is almost a 0.5 yard under what their opponents average. 

All this running is going to lead to some long empty possessions that either lead to no points or a field goal, which is exactly what we want. Give me the UNDER 54! 

50* (CFB) - PAC-12 Oregon/Utah TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 58.5)

I love the UNDER 58.5 in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game between Utah and Oregon. These two teams just played a couple weeks ago in Utah. The Utes embarrassed the Ducks 38-7, ending all hope for Oregon to make the College Football Playoff. 

As good as Utah looked in that win, you can't underestimate how much of an advantage they had playing that game at home. I think we are going to see a much better effort defensively from Oregon in the rematch, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

I also think that these are two teams that want to establish the run. Utah ran it 50 times in the win over the Ducks a couple weeks ago and Oregon's a team that averages close to 40 rush attempts per game on the season. 

I just think it's going to be a defensive battle with both teams struggling to not only sustain drives, but finish them off in the red zone with touchdowns. Give me the UNDER 58.5! 

40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total SHOCKER (Over 56) 

I think we are getting some great value with the OVER 56 in Saturday night's big Big 12 matchup between Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. I think a lot of people are hesitant to play the OVER with a team like the Cowboys who are so good defensively and not exactly an offensive juggernaut. 

The key here is that his Red Raiders defense is one they can exploit, much like they did last week in their 63-point outburst against a bad TCU defense. Texas Tech has already given up 50+ points in 3 Big 12 games, including 70 to Texas earlier in the year. They let an Oklahoma offense that looked lost against Baylor score 52 and they gave up 52 to TCU with the Horned Frogs throwing for just 104 yards on 10 pass attempts. 

I not only think the Cowboys are going to score, but I also think Texas Tech is good enough offensively that they at least get into the 20s and maybe even the 30s. In the last 8 meetings, which goes all the way back to 2013, Oklahoma State has not held the Red Raiders to fewer than 34 points and in 7 of those 8 meetings the two teams combined for at least 75 points. Give me the OVER 56! 

40* (CFB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 65.5) 

I have to take a shot on the UNDER 65.5 in Saturday's big AAC showdown between SMU and Cincinnati.

I know the Mustangs are statistically one of the best offenses in the country, as they come in averaging 41.6 ppg, 499 ypg and 6.7 yards/play, but a lot of that is who they have played. I don't see a defense on their schedule that they have played that is even remotely as good as what they will see in this game against Cincinnati. Keep in mind last year SMU averaged 38.6 ppg and only managed to score 13 against the Bearcats in a blowout loss at home. 

I also know Cincinnati hasn't exactly looked dominant defensively in their last few games, but this is still a team that has not given up 30 in any game this year and only twice given up more than 21. It also feels like to me that the Bearcats are one of those teams that play their best against the better teams. We saw that in their game at Notre Dame, where they held the Irish to just 13 points. 

So even if Cincinnati's offense puts up 40+ points, which I don't think they will, there's still a great chance this game will stay under the total. I think the number here should be closer to 58. Give me the UNDER 65.5! 

40* (CFB) - Wednesday Night MAC SLAUGHTER (OVER 60) 

This total opened at 65.5 and has been bet down to a mere 60. The reason for that is the forecast doesn't look great. There's expected to be 15-20 mph and a 34% chance of rain. I just think it's created some great value on the OVER. 

I just think it's been a bit overblown. There's a 66% chance it doesn't rain and with how bad these two teams are defensively, especially against the run, I don't think the wind will play as big a role as some might think. 

Northern Illinois comes in averaging 220 rushing yards/game and 4.8 yards/carry. They will be up against a Buffalo defense that gives up 197 ypg and 4.8 ypc. The Bulls are averaging 194 ypg and 4.3 ypc on the ground and will be facing a Huskies defense that is giving up 209 ypg and 5.9 ypc. As a whole both teams are giving up over 30 ppg and 450 ypg in conference play. Give me the OVER 60! 

40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 54)  

I think we are getting some great value here with the OVER 54 in Tuesday's MAC matchup between Ohio and Toledo. Both of these teams can put up points. Toledo is scoring 32.8 ppg in MAC play and Ohio is scoring 30.5 ppg. I just don't see either defense making enough stops here to keep this under 60 points. 

The UNDER has cashed quite a bit for both teams, but if you look closely, the games have just barely went under the number. You also got to look at how high scoring these MAC games have been in these early weekday matchups. This one will be no different. Give me the oVER 54! 

40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 49.5) 

The OVERs have been cashing left and right in these early weekday MAC games. We cashed one last night with Buffalo/Miami (OH) over 57. I'll roll the dice with another OVER Wednesday, as I just think 49.5 is way too low for the game between Bowling Green and Toledo. 

It's not out of the question that Toledo could put up on 50 on their own. They almost did last week against Eastern Michigan, as they hung 49 points and racked up nearly 700 yards of offense. That offense will be up against a Bowling Green defense that is giving up 39.0 ppg in MAC play. In their last 3 games the Falcons have allowed 34 to Northern Illinois, 55 to E Mich and 44 to Buffalo. 

Little more concern with Bowling Green's offense, but they should benefit from playing at home, they have scored at least 20 in every MAC game this year and I'm also not convinced the Rockets are all that motivated with no real shot of winning the MAC West and making the title game. Give me the OVER 49.5! 

40* (CFB) - Tuesday Night MAC Total NO-BRAINER (Over 57) 

I will take my chances with the OVER 57 in Tuesday's MAC matchup between Buffalo and Miami (OH). This game has shootout written all over it. 

Buffalo has seen an average of 67 points scored in their 5 conference games this season, as they are scoring 34.2 ppg and giving up 32.8 ppg. 

That soft Bulls defense is the key in this one, as the RedHawks are not the most explosive offense. With that said, Miami is averaging over 30 ppg in their last 3 and had over 500 yards of offense in last week's 33-35 loss at Ohio. 

I also think that while the RedHawks defense is only giving up 25.8 ppg and 20.6 ppg in conference play, a lot of that is who they have played. I just don't think they are going to be able to slow down this balanced Buffalo attack that comes in averaging over 200 yards/game on both the ground and thru the air. Give me the OVER 57! 

40* (CFB) - Tuesday Night MACTION MONEYMAKER (Under 53.5) 

I love the value we are getting with the UNDER 53.5 in Tuesday's Maction between Eastern Michigan and Toledo. 

I think the defenses for both teams will have the edge in this game. The Eagles high-powered offense that is averaging 32.8 ppg, is a bit fluky. They only average 373 ypg, 5.6 yards/play and have played a pretty soft schedule in terms of defenses they have played. Toledo is giving up 18.3 ppg, 326 ypg and 4.7 yards/play and that's vs teams that on average score 24.6 ppg, while giving up 375 ypg and 5.3 yards/play. 

As for the Rockets' offense, they are scoring 28.5 ppg, but are really weak up front on the offensive line and are facing a decent defense here in Eastern Michigan. The Eagles are only giving up 24.9 ppg and 393 ypg. Give me the UNDER 53.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 66.5) 

I love the OVER 66.5 in Saturday's Big 12 showdown between Oklahoma and Texas Tech. I'm shocked the number here isn't in the 70's. I think some of that has to do with Oklahoma's lackluster performance this past Saturday against Kansas, but I'm not one that's going to read a lot into the Sooners not playing their best against the worst team in the conference. 

If anything I think that's a positive here, as it's going to make Oklahoma that much more motivated to get off to a strong start offensively in this game. I also think you got to look at what Oklahoma has done as a whole since Caleb Williams has replaced Spencer Rattler at quarterback. 

He was 100% the reason they were able to rally from that huge deficit in their 55-48 win over Texas and the very week he guided this team to 52 points in a win over TCU that saw 83 combined points. 

It wouldn't surprise me at all, if Oklahoma put up 50+ in this game. We have already seen Texas Tech give up that number twice, as Texas scored 70 on them and TCU had 52. 

Even if Oklahoma were to only get to 40, we would only need 27 from Tech to get the OVER and the Red Raiders are scoring 34.3 ppg and the fewest they have scored in any game all season is 23. This is also not a very good Sooners defense and the fact that KU was able to put up 23 points with over 400 yards of offense is probably the biggest takeaway you should take from that game. Give me the OVER 66.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big Ten TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 50.5) 

I was shocked when I saw this total in the 50s, but I guess I'm not shocked when you look at the offensive numbers that these two teams have put up. Michigan State is scoring 34.3 ppg, 452 yards/game and 7.0 yards/play, while Michigan comes in at 37.7 ppg, 443 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. 

We can start to uncover the value when we look at just conference games. If you only focus on Big Ten opponents, Michigan State is scoring just 28.0 ppg, 398.5 ypg and 6.6 yards/play, which Michigan goes down to 30.8 ppg, 389.0 ypg and 5.3 yards/play. 

The other big thing here is the schedule. Both Michigan and Michigan State have played very favorable schedules to this point. The Wolverines are 4-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Rutgers, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern. They did score 38 against the Badgers, but only had 365 yards and it was a 20-10 game going into the 4th quarter. The Spartans are 4-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Northwestern, Nebraska, Rutgers and Indiana and they only managed to score 23 vs the Cornhuskers and 20 last time out vs the Hoosiers. 

These are also two offensive teams that want to run the football and are going up against two defenses that have been really good at stopping the run. Michigan is only giving up 3.6 yards/carry and Michigan State is allowing only 3.3 yards/carry. 

I just think in a game of this magnitude, both teams are going to be a little more conservative out of the gate and all the running for 3-4 yards is going to eat up the clock and keep this thing in the low 40s. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

40* (CFB) - Late Night Total SHARP PLAY (Over 63) 

I like the OVER 63 in Saturday's ACC matchup between Georgia Tech and Virginia. I just don't see the Yellow Jackets going on the road with that awful secondary and having any shot of slowing down Virginia's prolific passing attack. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 65% of their pass attempts and are averaging 8.2 yards/attempt. 

Virginia is 3rd in the country in pass attempts per game behind junior quarterback Brennan Armstrong. He's already thrown for 2,824 yards and 19 TDs and is completing 64% of his attempts. Cavaliers are averaging 8.4 passing yards/attempt. 

The only chance the Yellow Jackets have of making a game of this, is to go score for score with Virginia. I don't know if they can, but I do think they can get into the 20s no problem. I know the Cavaliers just shutout Duke last week, but this is not a very good Virginia defense. Give me the OVER 63! 

40* (CFB) - Thursday Night Total ANNIHILATOR (OVER 70.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 70.5 in Thursday's American Athletic matchup between Tulane and SMU. I just don't think it's asking a lot for these two teams to eclipse this number. The Mustangs rank 10th in the country in scoring at 40.7 ppg. Tulane isn't quite that potent, but are 36th at 32.8 ppg. 

I wouldn't be shocked at all if SMU put up 50 points in this game. When faced up against a good offense, Tulane's defense hasn't been able to keep the opposing team out of the end zone. They gave up 40 to Oklahoma in Week 1 and we have seen how much better that OU offense is now compared to back then. They allowed 61 to Ole Miss and that's with the Rebels scoring their last point at the 7:35 mark in the 3rd quarter. They gave up 52 to East Carolina and 40 in their last game against Houston. 

The big key here is I don't think we need 50 out of SMU to cash the OVER in this game. I know SMU's defensive numbers look pretty good. The Mustangs are only giving up 22.2 ppg and 391 ypg. However, a lot of that is who they have played. The only two games I think they have played an offense with a pulse is matchups vs TCU and La Tech. They gave up 34 to the Horned Frogs and 37 to the Bulldogs. I got Tulane in the 30s in this one. Give me the OVER 70.5! 

40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT (Over 82) 

You don't see a lot of college football totals in the 80's and I think the high number might scare some people away, even though every knows there's going to be points galore scored in this game. I just think that given how fast these two teams play, how explosive they are offensively and the lack of defensive talent these two possess, there's a very high probability that these two eclipse this big number. 

I think most know by now that Ole Miss is an offensive juggernaut under Lane Kiffin. I don't know if everyone is aware of just how good Tennessee has been on offense and how fast first year head coach Josh Heupel has this team playing. 

Just on the number of possessions alone that both offenses figure to have, it's really not asking a lot for these two teams to get well into the 80s. I mean we just saw Ole Miss/Arkansas combine for 103 points last week. 

Tennessee has played 4 Power 5 opponents and 3 of the 4 have seen at least 65 and those 3 were against the likes of Pitt, Missouri and South Carolina. They combined for 86 on the road vs Missouri. 

I definitely don't see the Vols defense being able to slowdown Corral and the Rebels. On the flip side, I don't trust the Ole Miss defense at all, especially in this spot. How much can they have left in the tank defensively after back-to-back games against Alabama and Arkansas. Give me the OVER 82! 

40* (CFB) - Thursday CFB Night Total ANNIHILATOR (UNDER 51) 

The UNDER 51 in the South Alabama/Georgia Southern is is the only thing I'm betting in college tonight. These are two teams that love to run the football. The Jaguars run it on average 40 times per game (57.1%) and the Eagles rush it 47 times per game (67%). 

Even when the run isn't really working, these two teams are going to keep trying to establish it. Both also will look to milk the ball with the run if they get any kind of lead. I don't think either team is going to have a ton of success on the ground. Georgia Southern may put up a decent number, but they are going to have to earn it by running it 40-50 times. 

Just look at last year's game between these two. Georgia Southern won the matchup by a final score of just 24-17. Neither offense could do much in that game and 14 of the 41 points that were scored came in the 4th quarter (strongly considering doubling down with U24 in the first half). 

The line being a pick'em is also worth a note. UNDER has cashed in 11 of South Alabama's last 13 when the line is 3 or less, either way. UNDER is also 12-4 in their last 16 games played and 8-1 in their last 9 in games played Weeks 5-9. Give me the UNDER 51! 

50* (CFB) - App St/Lafayette MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 57) 

I like the UNDER 57 in Tuesday's Sun Belt action between Appalachian State and Louisiana Lafayette. This is a pretty big matchup in the Sun Belt. Most had these two teams picked to win their respective divisions and meet up in the conference title game. Both are off to a strong 4-1 start and are undefeated in conference play. More times than not, big games are lower-scoring than expected. 

I also like how these two teams matchup. Both teams offensively want to establish the run game. Ragin' Cajuns run in 54% of the time and the Mountaineers rush it 57% of the time. Lafayette also likes to play at a slower pace (T-70th in plays/game). 

While these aren't elite run defenses, I think both are a little better vs the run than what people think. App State's numbers are solid. They only give up 118 ypg and 3.6 ypc. However, that's come against teams who average 151 ypg and 4.2 ypc. Lafayette's numbers look a lot worse. They are giving up 171 ypg and 4.1 ypc. However, that's come against teams averaging 190 ypg and 4.8 ypc. Ragin' Cajuns should also get a boost defensively playing at home. 

UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 9 meetings between these two teams. Last year they combined for just 45 in a 24-21 Lafayette win. Neither team sniffed 300 yards of offense. Cajuns ran it 45 times to 24 pass attempts. Mountaineers ran it 49 times to 21 pass attempts. Just don't see enough possessions to surpass this number. Give me the UNDER 57! 

40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 57.5) 

I love the OVER 57.5 in Saturday's ACC cross division matchup between Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech. I'm shocked this number isn't in the 60s. Pitt just isn't a good offensive team, they are one of the best offensive teams in the country. 

The Panthers come into this game averaging 52.5 ppg, 548 ypg and 7.1 yards/play. I know there's some inflation in the numbers with the 51 they put up on UMass and 77 they scored last week against New Hampshire, but we saw them score 41 at Tennessee and 41 against Western Michigan. 

Pitt has one of the best quarterbacks in the country that people don't talk about in senior Kenny Pickett. He's completed 74.2% of his attempts for 1,342 yards with an outstanding 15 to 1 TD-INT ratio. He's had a field day throwing to freshman wide out Jordan Addison, who has 23 catches for 407 yards and 8 TDs in 4 games. 

Georgia Tech's defense looked great in their near upset at Clemson and were able to hold Sam Howell and the Tar Heels to just 22 last week. However, I'm still not buying into this Yellow Jackets defense. I think UNC beat themselves more than Georgia Tech's defense played great. 

Let's also not ignore the fact that the Yellow Jackets offense was able to put up 45 points on the Tar Heels. In the two games where Pitt has played a halfway decent offense, they gave up 34 to Tennessee and 44 to Western Michigan. 

I think both offenses have a really good shot here to put up 30 points and I wouldn't be shocked if one or both hit 40. Give me the OVER 57.5! 

40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 65.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 65.5 between Coastal Carolina and UMass, as I think this game easily gets into the 70's. You might be asking how that happens when you got a team like UMass that is averaging just 21.0 ppg. It's more about how bad the Minutemen are on the defensive side of the ball.

 UMass gave up 51 in their opener at Pitt, allowed 45 at home to BC and 42 at home to E Michigan. They are giving up 220 yards/game and 5.2 yards/carry vs the run. They are also giving up 306 ypg and a 74% completion rate vs the pass. 

Coastal Carolina averages 43.0 ppg, 230 yards/game and 6 yards/carry, while throwing for 275 yards/game and completing 78% of their pass attempts. The Chanticleers would have to play their worst possible game to not hit 40 points. I think they get to at least 50. 

UMass might not do a lot to help us early, but they will have plenty of opportunities to score in the 2nd half when Coastal Carolina calls off the dogs. I see this somewhere along the lines of 49 to 24. Give me the OVER 65.5! 

50* (CFB) Marshall/App State MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 60.5) 

I saw this total start to climb early in the week and quickly grabbed the UNDER 60.5 as soon as I saw the first book go back the other way (why it's so important to be a long-term client, so you get the play as soon as it's published and don't miss out on better numbers). 

I just don't see these two teams going up and down the field the way you need to eclipse a number like this. It's really a prime example of how much more people focus on a team's offensive numbers than their defense. 

Marshall is averaging 43.7 ppg and 604 ypg. Impressive. However, they have played Navy, NC Central and East Carolina. They should have great numbers. It's going to be a whole lot tougher against a very good Appalachian State defense. The Mountaineers are giving up just 18.0 ppg and 349 ypg. That's with them playing a road game at Miami, FL. 

It's similar on the other side. Appalachian State is averaging 33.3 ppg and 446 ypg, but are actually underperforming if you take into account the teams they have faced are giving up on average 36.4 ppg and 480 ypg. The Mountaineers are also a team that wants to run the ball, which is great for eating up the clock. Marshall's defense has also been pretty good, giving up just 19.7 ppg and 379 ypg. 

I also think you got to put some decent stock into last year's game between these two teams, which ended in a 17-7 Marshall win. The Herd ran it 45 times to just 25 passes and App State had 33 carries. Books were way off on that one too, as the total was 59.5. Give me the UNDER 60.5! 

50* (CFB) - Sharp Money TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 56.5) 

I think the fact that BC lost starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec to injury has created some big time value on the OVER in Saturday's game against Temple. I just don't think the drop off to backup Dennis Grosel is as big as people might think. Grosel came in relief of Jurkovec in last week's 45-28 win over UMass and completed 11 of 14 for 199 yards. 

There's also last year's season finale at Virginia, where Grosel got the start for an inured Jurkovec. He was 32 of 46 (69.6%) for 520 yards and 4 scores. I don't see the Owls having any kind of answer for this BC passing attack. 

Don't be fooled by Temple's defense in their first two games. While they held Rutgers to just 365 total yards, the Scarlet Knights put up 61 on the Owls. Even an awful Akron team that didn't score a point until the 4th quarter against Auburn was able to put up 24 points. Let's also not forget that same Rutgers offense that shredded Temple had just 17 points and 195 total yards in their game against Syracuse last week. 

It's not out of the question here that BC could put up a 50 spot. I certainly think they can get to at least 40. That means we just need a little bit out of this Temple offense to cash a winner. 

I think they can. Boston College's defense isn't anything special. If UMass can score 28 against them, so can Temple. My numbers have this game at 64.5. That's a full 8 points of value we are getting. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

40* (NCAAF) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 55.5)

I was really surprised this total was as low as it was. I was glued to that FSU/Notre Dame game last Sunday. I cashed my ticket on FSU and the points, but the one thing that really stuck with me, was the talent Notre Dame has at the skill position. I knew Michael Mayer was going to be a weapon, but Kevin Austin and Kyren Williams are big time playmakers.  

They made former Wisconsin QB Jack Coan look like a serious Heisman threat, as he completed 26 of 35 for 366 yards and had 4 TD passes. I wonder if people have a hard time not referring back to the Coan they saw at Wisconsin. All I know, I liked what I saw out of him in Week 1. 

I think when you have doubt about a team's QB, you aren't as quick to back them. I think it possibly has Notre Dame a bit undervalued right now. I would definitely lean laying the points with them. However, I think the much safer bet is on the OVER 55.5. 

If the Irish are as dynamic as what I'm expecting, there's a chance they could put up 50. Keep in mind, they had 38 points and a 18-point lead going into the 4th quarter last week. They were outscored 18-0 in the 4th and needed OT. They are not taking their foot off the gas. 

I just don't know that Toledo has the kind of talent you need to slow down an offense like this. The MAC is also now the bottom of the barrel in conference hierarchy, having been passed by both the Sun Belt and C-USA. Last 3 times the Rockets have faced a Power 5 team they have given up 38, 49 and 52 points respectively. 

As for Toledo's offense, I think they are to help us out and put up some points to really push this past the mark. As much as I was impressed with the talent on ND's offense, I'm really concerned about their defense. They gave up 38 points and 442 yards to a FSU team coming off a 3-win season. Who knows what those numbers would look like if Mike Norvell would have just started McKenzie Milton at QB. 

Toledo has 10 starters back from an offense that put up 35.0 ppg and 494 ypg last year. Only once in the last 7 years have they not averaged 35 or more. I mention they give up a lot vs Power 5 teams, but they scored 24, 24 and 30 in those games. If they give us 24, this should be over by the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 55.5! 

50* (CFB) - Non Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK (UNDER 60) 

I really like the UNDER 60 in Saturday's non-conference matchup between USC and San Jose State. The total here is suggesting a shootout, but I'm not convinced that will be the case. 

I know USC has a really good quarterback in Kedon Slovis, but he's got a lot of new faces it receiver. He gets back his top guy in Drake London, but his second and third favorite targets are gone and two guys that were expected to start are not expected to be available for this game. 

You also have to look at what they will be going up against. San Jose State went 7-1 and won the MWC title behind the play of their defense. The Spartans only gave up 19.9 ppg and 346 ypg last year and have 10 of their 11 starters back.

If they can just keep USC from going off for 40+, it's going to be hard for this to get to 60. That's because the Trojans are absolutely loaded on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line and at linebacker. 

For San Jose State to score, they are going to have to have a ton of big plays in the passing game. I just don't see it. They get back starting QB Nick Starkel, but he's got to make due without his top two targets from last year in Bailey Gaither and Tre Walker. Those two had 86 catches for 1,352 yards and 8 scores. Give me the UNDER 60! 

40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 58.5) 

I like the UNDER 58.5 in Saturday's matchup between Texas and Louisiana. I just think there's enough question marks with these two offenses to have a total pushing 60. 

Let's start with the Longhorns. Texas has to replace one of their better QBs in the history of this program in Sam Ehlinger. He was the heart and soul of that offense last year and now it's on the shoulders of freshman Huson Card. 

Let's also not forget the Longhorns are learning a whole new offense under new head coach (also calls the plays) Steve Sarkisian. He was really good at Alabama, but a lot of that was simply talent. 

You might be asking what questions I got for a Ragin' Cajuns offense that brings back 10 starters from a team that put up 33.6 ppg and 422 ypg in 2020. It's easily the loss of their top two running backs Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas. These two combined to rush for 1,636 yards and 18 TDs. That was in just 11 games. I just don't trust quarterback Levi Lewis to carry the load. 

The other big thing is these are two teams that figure to be pretty good defensively. Lafayette only gave up 22 ppg and 355 ypg last year and we really saw how that talent stacks up when they went on the road and held Iowa State to just 14 points and 303 yards in a shocking 31-14 upset of the Cyclones. Give me the UNDER 58.5! 

50* (CFB) UNC/Va Tech ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 64) 

I will take the UNDER 64 in Friday's ACC showdown between North Carolina and Virginia Tech. I think there's a couple factors that have the number here way too high. One of those being how high scoring last year's game was. The Tar Heels won 56-45 as the two put up over 100 points. 

The other is the perception of UNC and how potent are thinking their offense will be with Sam Howell back under center (talk he might be the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft). 

I just don't see a repeat of last year. You got to remember that Va Tech had a number of defensive guys miss time because of injury or covid. They also were in the midst of a transition from legendary defensive coordinator Bud Williams. New offensive coordinator Justin Hamilton was behind the 8-ball from the get go. I wouldn't be surprised if the Hokies shaved over a TD off their 32.1 ppg they allowed last year. 

I also look at UNC's defense as being much improved. Tar Heels got 10 starters back from a very young unit that suffered through some growing pains. They got the size and speed to be one of the best defenses in Chapel Hill in more than a decade. 

As for Howell and the Tar Heels offense, there's no denying Howell's talents. It's not him that has me concerned about the UNC offense. It's the fact that the Tar Heels lost two 1,000 yards rushers, as well as their top two receivers (combined 1,783 yards, 14 TDs). I don't see this offense being near as potent in 2021, especially not early in the year. Give me the UNDER 64! 

40* (CFB) - Ohio St/Minn Total NO-BRAINER (Over 62.5) 

I will take my chances with the OVER 62.5 in Thursday's Big Ten showdown between Minnesota and Ohio State. I got this one getting into the 70s, as I look for a lot of fireworks offensively from both teams. 

There's plenty of skeptics out there with Buckeyes freshman quarterback CJ Stroud and his ability to keep this offense rolling without Justin Fields under center. The hype around Stroud might be a little much, but he's in the perfect situation. Ohio State is loaded at wide receiver, have one of the best offensive lines in the country and are going to be able to run the football. 

I just don't think the Gophers have the speed or talent defensively to keep Ohio State from scoring at will. Not even an underrated homefield edge will be able to help them. Minnesota is in the bottom 5 in the Big Ten on the defensive line, at linebacker and in the secondary. 

The only way the Gophers are keeping this close, is if they go score for score with the Buckeyes. I'm not so sure they will be able to score enough to cover the 14-point spread, but I feel pretty good about them scoring enough to push this over the total. 

Minnesota's got 10 starters back on offense. They have an experienced signal caller in Tanner Morgan, a first team Big Ten back in Mohamed Ibrahim and one of the top offensive lines in the country. They will be up a very inexperienced Ohio State defense that has just 2 starters back on the front 7 and loses their top 5 tacklers. Keep in mind this is a defense that slipped last year, giving up over 400 ypg. It wouldn't shock me if the Gophers scored 30+ in this game. Give me the OVER 62.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 58.5) 

I love the OVER 58.5 in Thursday's matchup that has NC State hosting USF. I would be shocked if these two teams failed to hit 60 in this one. 

NC State is going to have a potent offense in 2021. I really like sophomore quarterback Devin Leary. He only made 3 starts last year before being lost for the season. He threw for 890 yards with a 8-2 TD/INT ratio in those 3 starts. They got everyone back at the skill positions and a veteran offensive line. 

That offense will be up against a Bulls defense that has a lot of question marks. South Florida couldn't stop anybody last year. They gave up 39.9 ppg and 441 ypg. That's with them holding the Citadel to a mere 6-points on 284 yards. They gave up over 200 ypg and 5.0 ypc against the run and opposing QBs completed 60% of their attempts. 

The big key here is I think USF is going to be able to put up a decent amount of points as well. Even with 10 starters back on defense, I got big time concerns with the Wolfpack on that side of the ball. They gave up 40+ points 4 times. 

As for the Bulls offense, I think they are going to be one of the most improved units in the country after averaging just 23.1 ppg and 365 ypg last year. They got one of the rising stars at OC in Charlie Weis Jr. The problem last year is it was the first year under a new staff and their just wasn't the proper time to implant the offense with the pandemic. We saw a bit of a flash of their potential in last year's finale, as they put up 46 points and nearly 650 yards (646) in a game against UCF. Give me the OVER 58.5!