Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Texas Rangers +146
The Seattle Mariners are struggling down the stretch and clearly feeling the pressure of trying to clinch a wild card spot. They have gone just 3-8 in their last 11 games overall and have scored one run or fewer in six of their last 10 games. They are without their best hitter in Julio Rodriquez, which isn't helping matters.
Now they have to face Texas ace Martin Perez, who has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season. Perez is 12-6 with a 2.90 ERA in 30 starts and the Rangers have gone 20-10 (+11.2 Units) in his 30 starts. He is 7-3 with a 2.78 ERA in 15 road starts with the Rangers going 12-3 in his 15 starts away from home.
Perez is 8-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 25 career starts against Seattle. He has allowed just 4 earned runs in 17 innings with 23 K's in his last three starts against them. He'll be opposed by George Kirby, who is coming off one of his worst starts of the season. He allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 2 1/3 innings to the lowly A's last time out.
The Rangers are 9-2 in Perez's 11 starts when working on 5 or 6 days' rest this season. This line should be much closer to even money with Perez going and with the recent struggles of the Mariners at the plate. Bet the Rangers Wednesday.
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[1%] Free Play on Astros over 6
1* FREE INFO PLAY on A's vs Angels over 8 -115
Free Pick on Rangers
1* Free Sharp Play on Twins +105
The Twins (+105) are worth a look as a short home dog against the White Sox in Wednesday's MLB action. Easy fade here of Chicago. The White Sox have completely fallen out of the playoff picture, as they come into this game having lost 7 in a row. The offense has scored just 2 runs in their last 2 games combined and have scored 3 or fewer in each of their last 6. That offense just isn't going to cut it and today's starter for the White Sox, Johnny Cueto is 0-3 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Play the Twins +105!
Free Play on Avalanche +110
1* Free Pick on Chargers/Texans under 45 -110
All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.
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1*Cincinnati Bengals -1.5
The Dolphins' defense was on the field for 90 plays in their misleading win (out-gained 497-212) against Buffalo. A short week with travel makes this a tough spot in my opinion. Take the Bengals!
Pure Lock's FREE CFB play Saturday 10-1-22
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1 Dimer on Diamondbacks vs Astros under 6½ -105
1* on Orioles +120
Dave's Wednesday Free Play:
1* on Chicago Cubs +171
The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Chicago Cubs as big home underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. The Phillies are feeling the pressure of trying to make the postseason, going just 3-8 in their last 11 games overall. The Cubs are 6-1 in their last 7 games overall and won't be an easy out like this line suggests. The Phillies are just 5-9 in Aaron Nola's 14 road starts this year as he consistently gets too much respect from the books. Nola sports a 4.54 ERA in 6 lifetime starts against the Cubs. Hayden Wesneski has impressed, going 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 2 starts this year while yielding only 3 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings. Take Chicago.
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Milwaukee Brewers -145
The St. Louis Cardinals just clinched the NL Central with their victory over the Milwaukee Brewers yesterday. They have nothing to play for the rest of the way now, and this is a letdown spot for them. The Brewers are still scratching and clawing to make the postseason and need this game a lot more than the Cardinals do. I like their chances with ace Brandon Woodruff getting the ball tonight. Woodruff is 7-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 11 home starts this season with the Brewers going 10-1 in those starts. Woodruff is 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 10 previous starts against St. Louis. Jose Quintana has given up 9 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings in his las three starts against Milwaukee. Give me the Brewers.
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R&R Totals FREE CFB Over-Under Saturday 10-1-22
UNDER 44 Illinois/Wisconsin
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FREE PLAY on Orioles +116
1* Free Play on Dodgers -133
Wednesday's Free MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -145
I really like the Brewers as a -145 home favorite against the Cardinals today. St Louis clinched the NL Central title over Milwaukee with yesterday's 6-2 win. I always like to fade a team the day after they clinched a playoff spot. Not only does the team typically come out flat after a night of celebrating, there's a huge shift in philosophy from trying to win games to focusing on getting guys rest and making sure they are full strength for the playoffs.
The other big thing here is that while the Brewers are out of the division race, they still have a shot at making the playoff via the Wild Card. Milwaukee is just 1.5-games back of the Phillies, who are on a bit of a free fall. They also are just 2.5-games back of the Padres for the second Wild Card spot.
Brewers also have Brandon Woodruff on the mound. Woodruff got off to a bit of a slow start in 2022, but has completely turned it around. Woodruff is 12-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 25 starts. He's 7-0 with a 2.16 ERA in 11 home starts and has a 1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts (10+ K's in all 3 starts). Give me the Brewers -145!
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Arkansas has been in some tough battles with Cincinnati, South Carolina and Texas A&M while the Tide, have seen a fairly weak schedule and barley got by Texas on the road. With that said, Im betting the battle tested Hawgs can stay close enough to get us the cover in this perceived SEC mismatch.
ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.
CFB Road favorites (ALABAMA) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 14-36 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate.
Play on Arkansas to cover