I'm not going to be shy about this , two time MVP QB Aaron Rodgers, was a one man wrecking crew for the Green Bay Packers. When he went down last week vs the Minnesota Vikings with a broken collar bone, I'm sure the Packer nations hearts were broken and the fragments flushed down the proverbial toilet on a promising season. With that said, I'm not a fan of his replacement Brett Hundley, and feel strongly the Packers are now at a big disadvantage despite of playing at home this week vs New Orleans. Green Bay even when Rodgers was healthy never did very well against NFC South opposition going a sub par 9-11 SU . The last time Green Bay played without Rodgers 4 seasons ago they won only 2 of 7 games , and were just 0-4 ATS at home. Note: The Saints have given up an opponent passer rating of 56.7 during their current three-game winning streak.
Projected score: New Orleans 27 Green Bay 17
Play on the Saints to cover
#NFL FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
The Chicago Bears picked up their second win of the season with a 27-24 OT win as a 5.5-point dog at Baltimore last week. Rookie QB was 8-of-16 passing for 113 yards and a TD as the Bears did most of their damage on the ground, but that might be tough here against the Panthers who rank 5th in the NFL against the run while allowing just 3.4 yards per carry. We can also note that the Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
The Panthers will play on 10 days' rest after losing 28-23 to the Philadelphia Eagles last Thursday night. They're 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss and 3-0 SU and ATS on the road this season.
Chicago has a solid defense ranked 6th in total defense, but I don't think the Bears will be able to keep up with an angry and well rested Panthers team coming off a loss.
My free pick is on the Carolina Panthers.
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10* FREE NFL PICK (Seahawks -3.5)
The fact that the Giants dominated on the scoreboard, winning by 13 as a 13.5-point dog will have a lot of people second-guessing themselves when it comes to whether or not they should fade them again this week.
On top of that, the Seahawks haven’t exactly looked great so far, despite the fact that they are 3-2. I believe it’s actually created some value here on Seattle, as I think they have no problem winning by at least a touchdown in New York.
I believe the Giants caught the Broncos off guard, as a lot of people just thought this team would lay down after they lost both Odell Beckham Jr and Brandon Marshall. New York instead turned to their running game, rushing it a season-high 32 times. They piled on 148 yards against a Denver run defense that had been outstanding, which only strengthens my thought process that the Broncos just didn’t show up with the right mentality.
That’s not going to be the case with Seattle, who now has a good idea of what to expect from this new-look Giants offense. The Seahawks have routinely had one of the best defenses in the NFL and with the talent they have in the secondary, they will be able to load the box and take away that running game.
Another key factor here is that the Seahawks have a big scheduling advantage coming off their bye. That extra week to prepare and recharge the mind and body is huge this time of year. Not to mention the Seahawks have historically been a team that starts slow and turns it on about this time under Pete Carroll.
New York is also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after a straight up win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after holding their previous opponent under 90 yards rushing. Seattle is 50-33 ATS after the first month of the season since Carroll took over as head coach and 10-4 against teams from the NFC East. Give me the Seahawks -3.5!
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I'm recommending a play on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points on Sunday. The Baltimore offense is an absolute disaster. They're completely one-dimensional, unable to pass the football with any kind of consistent success. The only mode of transportation that has worked at all this season has been the ground game, but they're running into the 3rd stingiest run defense in the NFL. Last week was so bad, not only did they gain just 291 total yards, but the Ravens' offense didn't score a single TD. Defensively, the Ravens are one of the three worst teams against the run and we expect the Vikings' offense, ranked 12th in both the run and pass, to be able to distance themselves from Baltimore throughout the course of the contest. The Vikings are on a 20-6 ATS run at home and we'll lay the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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Adrian Peterson is just what Arizona needed to get over the hump. The veteran RB erupted for 134 YR and 2 TD's in his first game donning a cardinals uniform. The legs of Peterson will keep defenses honest and allow QB, Carson Palmer to do what he does best, throw the football. LA is a very young team with a bright future but their only decisive victory came in week 1 over an Indy tea, starting a backup QB. The Rams defense ranks 29th vs. the run and has to face AP here. the Cards "D" is very good against the rush and will slow down Todd Gurley, forcing 2nd year QB, Jared Goff (13 TD's & 10 INT's) to make mistakes. Getting 3 1/2 points here is a gift. The Road team is 5-0 ATS the L5 meetings in this series. Arizona is 4-0 ATS the L4 games played in LA. LA is 1-10-1 ATS their L12 games vs. the NFC. Take the Cardinals. Thank you.
The Titans battle the Browns and this number is too small given how bad the Browns have played this year.
They have struggled to even decide who gets the ball at QB. Kizer was benched for Kevin Hogan last week, but Kizer will once again get the ball here on Sunday.
Offensively, Cleveland just makes way too many mistakes. Averaging only 15.7 points per game, the Browns have seen more of their punter than anyone else this season.
Tennessee comes in off a huge win against the Colts, as they climbed back to the .500 mark. Derrick Henry has a huge game as he put up 131 yards and a touchdown to go with it. He will certainly get fed the ball a lot here, as this Cleveland defense has a lot of gaps in it.
Some trends to note. Browns are 6-25-1 ATS in their last 32 games overall.Browns are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games.
The Browns are just simply a struggle right now.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on San Francisco 49ers +6.5
The San Francisco 49ers get no respect because of their 0-6 record. But each of their last five losses have come by 3 points or less, becoming the first team in NFL history to accomplish that feat. And we're getting 6.5 points here against a Dallas Cowboys team that has allowed 11 touchdown passes the last four weeks while only getting one interception. Their secondary is terrible, which means the back door is always going to be wide open for the 49ers. They made a nice comeback and arguably should have beaten the Redskins last week, losing 24-26 after a fluky offensive pass interference penalty took them out of field goal range in the closing seconds. The Cowboys have all kinds of distractions right now with Ezekiel Elliott and the national anthem controversy. I just don't trust them going on the road and winning by a touchdown or more here to cover this inflated spread. Give me the 49ers.
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Free Pick on Rams/Cardinals UNDER
I think we get another defensive battle in London with the Rams and Cardinals. These two NFC West rivals combined for 50 in the final meeting last year, but that was all Arizona in a 44-6 win. The previous six meetings all finished with 46 or fewer points and I look for it to return to form here.
The Rams got people excited about their offense early, but they put up big numbers against bad defenses. I know the Cardinals have allowed 30+ in each of their last two games, but they had the Bucs held to just 6 points last week before taking their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter. A mistake they won't make again after letting it get too close at the end.
The other key here is the Rams are starting to play up to their potential on defense. It started in the 2nd half against Dallas when new DC Wade Phillips moved a couple rookies into the starting lineup. They have been lights out since and I think they make life miserable for the Cardinals in this one.
UNDER is 9-3 in the Rams last 12 games against division opponents and 11-5 in their last 16 off a win. It's also 7-3 in the Cardinals east 10 against the NFC West and 4-1 in their last 5 after giving up 30+ points. Take the UNDER!
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After losing 2 straight (0-2 SU & ATS) to open the season, the Saints have won 3 straight games (3-0 SU & ATS) while QB Brees has the offense humming while scoring 20, 34 & 52 points the last three games. The defense has forced 9 Turnovers in those 3 victories as well. That's going to be trouble for a Packers offense that lost QB Rogers to injury last Sunday and now starts the inexperienced QB Hundley, who tossed 3 Interceptions and only completed 18 of 33 when replacing Rogers last weekend. This Packers roster isn't very deep this season and was winning behind QB Rogers and WRs Cobb & Nelson. With QB Rogers out, this line is INFLATED and Green Bay shouldn't be getting +5.5 points at Lambeau Field, which would make the Saints -11.5 point chalk if this game were played in New Orleans! There'a little value in this point spread, which is why this rates only as a 10* Play. However, expecting the Saints defense to make the difference in covering the spread by forcing some key Turnovers from a GB offense that has no running game to help out former UCLA QB Hundley as he makes his 1st NFL start.
10* Play On New Orleans Saints -5.5 points
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Recommendation: Take the Cincinnati Bengals (#455)
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The Pittsburgh Steelers got a win and cover against the Chiefs last week, but it wasn’t because their offense was fixed. Pittsburgh has struggle week after week on the offensive side of the football, averaging less than 20 points per game (#22 in the NFL) despite their bevy of skill position talent. Much of the problem has come from the QB position, where, quite frankly, Ben Roethlisberger looks old. And the quotes coming out of the Steelers locker room have this bettor very concerned with the fragile mental state of this team right now.
Check out this Roethlisberger quote, talking about former tight end Heath Miller, who retired two years ago. “You develop that relationship with Heath over years and years in practice. Plus the type of person and teammate he was. He was probably the best teammate I’ve ever played with and one of the best men I’ve ever known in my life.” Contrast that quote with the Martavis Bryant ‘I want to be traded’ rumors. Note the modest production from rookie WR JuJu Smith Schuster.
Right now, Antonio Brown is the only consistent downfield weapon that they have. RB LeVeon Bell had 35 touches on the Steelers 63 offensive snaps last week – too many for a balanced offense. In three October starts, Big Ben has a 2-7 TD-INT ratio, and he currently ranks #30 out of 32 NFL QB’s in passer rating. Both TD passes during that span came on poorly thrown balls – both could have been INT’s! And it’s surely worth noting that the Steelers lauded home field edge at Heinz Field isn’t so great these days. Mike Tomlin’s squad is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven regular season tries as home chalk.
While the Steelers offense continues to struggle, the Bengals appear to have figured it out! Andy Dalton threw four picks without a TD over the first two weeks before Marvin Lewis fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese after facing a ‘near mutiny’ in the locker room. The Red Rifle completed only 54% of his passes while averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt in those games.
In the three games under new OC Bill Lazor, there’s been a ‘night and day’ type difference. Dalton’s completion percentage is up to 73%, he’s averaging 8.9 yards per attempt with a 7-2 TD-INT ratio. Tight end Tyler Kroft is developing into a solid weapon over the middle for Dalton; a team that isn’t missing injured tight end Tyler Eifert as much as they did last year. This sure feels like a ‘somebody wins it by a field goal’ kind of game. Too many points! Take the Bengals.
Play - San Francisco 49ers (Game 470).
Edges - 49ers: 5-1 SU at home following three consecutive away games; and 8-3-1 ATS in this series; and 8-4 SUATS last 12 games versus NFC East opponents… Cowboys: 3-11 ATS as road chalk with Garret against foes off an ATS win… With the Niners returning home off five straight losses by a filed gal or less, we recommend a 1* play on San Francisco. Thank you and good luck as always.
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1* Free Play on Cowboys/49ers under 49 -115
Rating: 2 Unit NFL Free Pick
Chicago rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky had an encouraging debut and has gotten the Bears a pair of ATS covers and an upset win at Baltimore in his two starts. Additionally John Fox has been covering spreads with a bunch of different QBs (Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley, Glennon, and Trubisky) while posting a 7-1-1 home underdog record since a year ago. That ATS log will continue as long as running back Jordan Howard (167 yards rushing vs. Ravens) has a good game and can remove pressure from Trubisky. Although Carolina is 3-0 on road some of Cam’s bad habits with 3 interceptions reared their ugly head vs. Eagles, and Panthers haven't had an easy win since their opener versus San Francisco.
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Tennessee at Cleveland 1:00 ET
Browns (+) over Titans- There is something 'not right' with the Titans. I can't say what it is but something about them us just 'not right.' I like Mariota and their running backs but I see so many holes. The Browns on the other hand have 'nothing right' and it just seems to get worse day by day. Back to Kizer at QB who knows maybe he can lead this group to its first win of the season. Take CLEVELAND!
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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Minnesota Vikings -4
The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NFL since Mike Zimmer took over. They have been especially tough at home, going 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games. And they have shown well at home this year.
The Vikings are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 8.2 points per game. Their defense is one of the top units in the NFL, giving up just 17.2 points per game, 295 yards per game and 5.0 per play.
Now they're up against arguably the worst offense in the NFL in the Baltimore Ravens. This is a Ravens offense that is putting up just 19.0 points per game, 289 yards per game and 4.7 per play. Joe Flacco looks lost behind a shaky offensive line and a receiving corps that can't stay healthy.
Just take one look at the Ravens' injury report and it will open your eyes. No team has been hit harder by injuries this season than the Ravens. They just can't field a competent team right now. They lost by 37 to the Jaguars, by 17 to the Steelers, and then lost at home to the Bears last week despite getting two gift special teams touchdowns.
Baltimore is 1-8 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Minnesota is 7-0 ATS off a win against a division rival over the last three years. Minnesota is 9-1 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. The Ravens are 5-14-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss. The Vikings are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games overall. Bet the Vikings Sunday.
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Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach Free Pick NFL Sunday: Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Technically, this is a revenge game for the Vikings as they did lose their last game versus the Ravens in Baltimore when they most recently met in 2013. The significance in that is that the Vikings are just 1-7 ATS when they are favored and playing with revenge and they're facing a team that is off of a SU loss as a favorite. Indeed the Ravens were favored at home versus Chicago last week and went to lose that game in OT. Suffice to say, Baltimore is in an angry mood here and will be ready to go! The Ravens did lose in London this season but in their other "true" road games they are 2-0 and have won those games by a combined score of 50 to 17. Minnesota is off of a big divisional win last week (versus Green Bay) but of course they took advantage of Aaron Rodgers getting injured in that game. Points are likely to be at a premium in this one as you can tell by the O/U posted on this one. That is particularly noteworthy here because the Vikings are 9-17 ATS in home games with a posted total between 35.5 and 38 points. Grab the generous points being offered here. Free Pick on BALTIMORE
Dave's Sunday Free Play:
1* on Atlanta Falcons +3.5
The Key: The Atlanta Falcons will be wanting revenge on the New England Patriots for blowing a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl. They should get it here with an outright victory. We've already seen the Patriots lose outright at home to the Panthers and Chiefs, and they were fortunate to beat the Texans, needing a last-second touchdown to win that game. They were also fortunate to beat the Jets last week thanks to a questionable overturned touchdown on a fumble through the end zone by the Jets. The Patriots simply aren't very good this season, especially defensively. The Falcons get Mohamed Sanu back this week and should tear apart a Patriots defense that will be missing key cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Eric Rowe. And the Falcons clearly have the better defense in this game as they allow just 21.8 points and 312 yards per game, compared to 26.5 points and 441 yards per game by the Patriots. Take Atlanta.
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1* on Saints vs Packers under 47½ -110