10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON TCU HORNED FROGS +4.5:

Give me TCU +4.5 against the Zags on Sunday. I just don't think Gonzaga is as good as what people think. Yes, the offense is really good, but to me they lack physicality and aren't nearly good enough on the defensive end. Zags are 244th in the country in effective FG% defense, ranking 251st in defending the 3-pointer and 220th against 2-pt shots.They were far from dominant in their 1st round game against Grand Canyon. They were down 7 with 5:57 left to play in the 1st half. 

On the flip side, I think TCU is one of the more underrated teams in this tournament. TCU didn't have their best player, Mike Miles for 5 games in Big 12 play. They were 1-4 in those games. They did lose both games to Texas and split with KU, but their two losses to the Longhorns were by a combined 10 points and their loss to KU was by 5. 

I thought they showed a lot about themselves in their first round game against Arizona State, jumping out to a 15-4 lead only to find themselves down 11 at the 16 minute mark of the 2nd half. Most teams don't recover in that spot and yet they found a way to win that game. I look for Miles to have a field day against this poor Gonzaga defense and for TCU's defense to make things uncomfortable for the Bulldogs offense. Give me TCU +4.5! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE

PLAY ON UCONN HUSKIES -4:

Lay the points with UConn against St Mary's. The Huskies are the far superior team in this matchup. I'm just not a big believer in this Gaels team. SMU's resume to me just isn't anything to get excited about. The mopped up along with Gonzaga in the WCC, going 14-2 in league play. They were 11-4 in non-conference games. Only one of those was against a team ranked in the Top 65. They do have a win over San Diego State. Their next best win is against North Texas. They have played two games against a team from the Big 12, Big 10, SEC, Big East and Pac-12. Those being Vanderbilt and Washington. Neither of those teams sniffed an at-large bid. 

St Mary's wants to slow the game down, but I don't think UConn will be thrown out of whack by a slower paced game. They ranked 214th in adjusted tempo. The Huskies know how to put the ball in the basket against any team. They ranked No. 3 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. It's not all offense for UConn. Huskies were 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 11 in effective FG%. I think St Mary's only hope is if they get hot from deep and that's going to be hard to do. UConn ranks 19th in defending the 3-pt shot. Give me UConn -4! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON MARQUETTE GOLDEN FLASHES -2.5:

I will gladly take my chances with Marquette as a mere 2.5-point favorite against Michigan State. Shaka Smart's done a tremendous job with this Golden Eagles team and I just don't think a lot of people realize how good they are. They aren't great on defense, but they do force teams out of their comfort zone. They rank 18th in TO% and opponents on average use up 18.7 seconds of the shot clock. That's the 7th best mark in the country. 

Marquette is also an offensive force. Ranking 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 7th in effective FG%. Michigan State is solid on both sides of the ball, but not really great at anything. They are one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the country, but they rank 301st out of 360 teams in 3PA/FGA. I just don't think the Spartans will have enough offensive firepower to keep it close. Give me Marquette -2.5! 

9* NCAAB LATE NITE ATS MASSACRE

PLAY ON PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS +5.5:

I will take my chances with Penn State as a 5.5-point dog against Texas. I backed both of these teams and cashed a winning ticket in the 1st round. I backed Texas because of how overrated I thought Colgate was. The Raiders dominated in the Patriot League, but were just 6-7 in non-conference games. Not to take anything away from Texas, but this Penn State team is no joke. I thought the Nittany Lions were one of the most underrated teams coming into this tournament. Penn State won 5 of 6 to close out the regular-season. They then won 3 games in 3 day in the Big Ten Tournament before losing to Purdue by 2-points in the title game. Few teams in this field shoot the 3-ball better than Penn State and it's not just 1 guy the Longhorns have to worry about. Nittany Lions can go score for score with Texas and I give them a real shot here of winning outright. Give me Penn State +5.5! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON HOUSTON COUGARS -5:

I will gladly take my chances with Houston as a 5-point favorite against Auburn. I'm just not buying into the Tigers win over Iowa in the first round. The Hawkeyes couldn't have shot the ball worse and Iowa has no chance when they don't make shots given how bad they are on defense. I don't see Auburn's offense having near the success here against this Houston defense. The Tigers go from facing an Iowa defense that ranked 308th in effective FG% defense to facing a Cougars team that was No. 2 in the country in that category. There are no easy looks. Houston was No. 2 in defending the 3-pt shot and No. 4 against 2-pt attempts. Give me Houston -5! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT

PLAY ON KANSAS JAYHAWKS -3.5:

I don't typically like to be on the same side as a big public play, but I just can't help myself with Kansas only laying 3.5 against the Razorbacks. Kansas is without question one of the most talented teams in the country and they put their ugly loss to Texas in the Big 12 title game behind them with a convincing 96-68 win over Howard on Thursday. Arkansas was able to beat Illinois 73-63, but that's not really saying a lot. Fighting Illini were way overrated if you ask me. Razorbacks had lost 4 of their last 5 games to close out the regular-season and in the SEC Tournament. They were a mere 8-11 over their final 19 games of the regular season (started the year 11-1). It's going to take a really bad game by Kansas just for Arkansas to keep this close. Give me the Jayhawks -3.5! 

10* NCAAB Rdd of 32 PLAY OF THE WEEKEND

PLAY ON DUKE BLUE DEVILS -3:

I will gladly take my chances with Duke as a slim 3-point favorite against the Volunteers. Duke was my pick to make it out of the East and that has not changed. If anything, I like it even more, as No. 1 seed Purdue was knocked out in the 1st round by No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson.

Blue Devils didn't get off to their typical start. They were just 17-8 overall and 8-6 in ACC play after a loss at Virginia on Feb. 11. That was to be expected. This is a young team that was transitioning away from Coach K. Duke hasn't lost since. They won 6 straight to close out the regular-season, 3 more in route to a ACC Tournament title and then cruised to a 74-51 win over Oral Roberts. 

Books were way off on that line in their first round matchup with the Golden Eagles. Duke was only a 5.5-point favorite. While Tennessee is certainly a more challenging opponent, I don't think 3 is near enough. Vols got off to a great start. They were 18-3 going into February. They were 7-1 in SEC play and fresh off a big win over Texas. They went just 4-6 over their final 10 and then got bounced early by Missouri in the SEC Tournament. Give me Duke -3! 

9* NCAA Tournament Situational ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON INDIANA HOOSIERS -4.5:

I'll gladly take my chances with Indiana as a slim 4.5-point favorite against Kent State. I think the Hoosiers are flying a bit under the radar coming into the NCAA Tournament. Indiana got off to a dismal start. They were just 10-6 overall and 1-4 in Big Ten play back on Jan. 11th. They proceeded to win 12 of their next 17. They had a nice 10-point win over Maryland in their first game of the Big Ten tournament before losing the next day to another very underrated team in Penn State. They did not shoot the ball well at all vs the Nittany Lions and still only lost that game by 4 points. 

The one thing Kent State does well is force opponents into mistakes, but that's not going to be easy to do against a more talented and athletic Indiana team. I also just don't think that the Golden Flashes have the size inside to contain one of the best big men in the country in Trayce Jackson-Davis. Give me the Hoosiers -4.5! 

10* NCAA Tournament Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON KANSAS STATE WILDCATS -7.5:

I love K-State as a 7.5-point favorite against Montana State. The Wildcats to me are coming into the tournament a bit undervalued after losing their regular-season finale and then having a poor showing in a 13-point loss to TCU in the Big 12 Tournament. This is a K-State team they swept their 2 games vs Baylor and split their two meetings with Kansas and Texas. 

I just don't think Montana State is anywhere close to being on the same playing level as the Wildcats. The Bobcats won the Big Sky Tournament, but it is worth noting they needed 2OT to get by Weber State in the semis and benefited from top seed Eastern Washington getting upset in their first game. 

The biggest thing for me when I look at Montana State is their non-conference. They were just 7-6 in games outside of the Big Sky. Their best non-conference win being a 3-point victory against Southern Utah, who finished ranked 112th at KenPom. They also played two Pac-12 teams and were not competitive in either, losing by 30 to Oregon and by 21 to Arizona. Give me K-State -7.5! 

9* NCAA Tournament No Doubt ATS MASSACRE

PLAY ON MEMPHIS TIGERS -1.5:

I got not problem laying the 1.5 with Memphis against FAU. The Owls have one of the best records of any team in the tournament at 31-3, but they also played the 246th toughest non-conference slate. I just feel that their record has them getting way too much respect against a Tigers team that feels like they are flying under the radar. 

Memphis won the AAC Tournament, defeating Houston by 10 in the title game. They were 15-4 over their last 19 games. Two of those losses came in OT and the other two were close losses to Houston. They also had a 3-point loss on the road to Alabama. They too me at the very least should be a No. 5 seed and I think there's a case to be made they are one of the Top 15 best teams in the country. Give me Memphis -1.5! 

9* NCAA Tournament Vegas LINE MISTAKE

PLAY ON IONA GAELS +9.5:

I will take my chances with Iona covering the 9.5 against UConn. This is not so much a play against the Huskies, as it is too good a price to pass up with the Gaels. Iona comes into this game on the nations 2nd longest winning streak at 14 games. They absolutely steamrolled their way to a MAAC regular-season and tournament title. They are coached by non other than the legendary Rick Pitino.

Iona plays outstanding defense. They finished No. 16 in the country in effective FG% defense. They were 8th best at defending the 3-PT shot and 4th in block%. You just don't get a lot of easy looks against this team. Gaels are also decent at forcing turnovers, ranking 43rd in TO%. Protecting the ball is one of the Huskies biggest weakness (236th in Off. TO%). I believe those turnovers will negate the edge UConn figures to have on the board. If the Gaels can get hot from the outside, they just might pull off the upset. Give me Iona +9.5! 

9* NCAA Tournament Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT

PLAY ON PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS +2.5:

I will gladly take the Nittany Lions as a 2.5-point dog against Texas A&M. I think Penn State is one of the most underrated teams going into the Tournament, especially of teams with a double-digit seed or worse. Nittany Lions went 5-1 over their final 6 regular-season games and then won 3 games in 3 days vs Illinois, Northwestern and Indiana (all tournament teams), before losing a heartbreaker 65-67 to Purdue in the title game. 

I think the Nittany Lions are playing with all the confidence in the world right now and they don't rely on just one guy to do all their scoring. They got 3-4 guys who can get hot and carry that offense. 

Texas A&M is a good team, but how good I'm not so sure. Aggies had an impressive 15-3 mark in SEC play and made it to the SEC Tournament title game. However, they were just 8-5 in non-conference. Their best win coming against a Depaul team that ended up ranked No. 142 at KenPom (went 3-17 in Big East play). I just don't think the Aggies have the offense to keep up with Penn State. Give me the Nittany Lions +2.5!

9* NCAA Tournament No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON TEXAS LONGHORNS -13:

I don't typically play many big favorites in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament, but this is one I just can't help myself on. You have a Texas team that is good enough to win it all. They were 2nd in the Big 12 regular-season race and won the Big 12 Tournament (destroyed KU in the title game 76-56). 

As for Colgate, I think they are frauds. The Raiders were 20-1 (17-1 regular-season, 3-0 Patriot League Tournament) against conference opponents this year. They were 6-7 against every body else. Their only non-conference game vs a team ranked inside the Top 120 on KenPom as a road game at Auburn, which they lost 66-93. If Auburn (No. 223 in effective FG% offense) can score 90+, the Longhorns got a shot at 100 in this one. Give me Texas -13! 

10* NCAA Tournament Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON IOWA HAWKEYES +1.5:

I really like the Hawkeyes as a 1.5-point dog against Auburn. Iowa should not be a dog in this matchup. Yes, Iowa is a very vulnerable team, largely do to the fact that they are all offense and no defense. If the shots aren't falling, they can lose to anybody. At the same time, if they make their 3-PT shots, there's not a team they can beat. They are extremely efficient on offense. They were No. 3 in the country in offensive efficiency. 

Auburn is a team that relies on their defense and effort to carry them, because scoring the basketball is a problem. Tigers were 223rd in effective FG%. They were also 315th in 3P%. I just don't think they will be able to capitalize on Iowa's poor defense and this Hawkeyes team is going to put up points. 

Another thing, is how these teams started compared to how they finished. Auburn opened up 16-3 (were 6-1 in SEC play), only to finish up 20-12 with a 10-8 conference mark. Iowa was 8-6 and 0-3 in Big Ten play to start out and ended up a win away from being the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Speaking of, I think the Hawkeyes upset loss to Ohio State in that tournament has them greatly undervalued coming into this game. Give me the Hawkeyes +1.5! 

9* NCAA Tournament Early Bird ATS MASSACRE

PLAY ON UTAH STATE AGGIES -1:

I got no problem backing No. 10 seed Utah State as a slim 1-point favorite against No. 7 seed Missouri on Thursday. The fact that the Aggies are favored as the worse seed says a lot and I agree with the oddsmakers on this one. The Tigers are a talented team, but they rely too much on their offense, as they are very poor on the defensive side of the ball. Missouri ranked 274th in effective FG% defense and 266th in 3PT % defense. 

Utah State finished the year 13th in offensive efficiency, 11th in effective FG% and 10th in 3PT %. While they are from an elite defensive team, the Aggies were a respective 58th in effective FG% defense and 29th in 2PT% defense. Missouri isn't a bad 3-PT shooting team (75th), but most of their points come inside. Tigers also foul a lot (Utah State 29th in FT%) and give up a bunch of offensive rebounds, while failing to grab many of their own. Give me Utah State -1!  

10* NCAAB NIT PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS -5.5: I'll take my chances with Oklahoma State laying 5.5 against Youngstown State in the first round of the NIT. Yes, the Cowboys played themselves out of the NCAA Tournament by going just 2-6 over their final 8 games. A lot of that has to do with just how good the Big 12 is, because this is one of the Top 40-50 teams in the country. They went 18-15 and 12 of the 15 losses were to teams that finished the year ranked inside the Top 30 at KenPom. 

On the flip side of this, you have a Youngstown State team that went 24-9. The Penguins won the Horizon League regular-season title, but lost in the semis of the Horizon League Tournament. That's a bad Horizon conference. They are the only team that ranked inside the Top 150 (No. 129) at KenPom. Out of the 11 teams that makeup the conference, 6 rank outside the Top 225. Youngstown State's best win all season was a win against Northern Kentucky, who is No. 162. The best team they played all season by KenPom standards was No. 131 Ohio. 

I just don't think the Penguins are going to be ready for this massive step up in competition. Give me Oklahoma State -5.5! 

10* NCAAB First Four VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS -2:

I'll take my chances with Mississippi State as a slim 2-point favorite against Pitt in Tuesday's First Four matchup. Defense has a way of reigning supreme in the NCAA Tournament and there's no debate who the better defensive team is in this one. Mississippi State finished the season No. 6 in the country in defensive efficiency and No. 19 in defensive effective FG%. Pitt ranked 142nd in efficiency and 108th in effective FG%. That's also a Panthers defense that has really struggled down the stretch. They gave up 81 to Georgia Tech in their first game of the ACC Tournament. That's a Yellow Jackets offense that ranks 192nd in offensive efficiency and 285th in effective FG%. It's why I'm not overly concerned here about the bad offensive numbers for the Bulldogs. Give me Mississippi State -2! 

Tuesday's Free NCAAB Pick

PLAY ON VANDERBILT COMMODORES -3:

I'll take my chances with Vandy laying just 3 against Yale in Tuesday's NIT action. The Commodores resume wasn't quite good enough to make the NCAA Tournament, but this was a team that certainly was playing like one of the 64 best teams over the final month of the season. Commodores closed out the regular-season winning 8 of their last 9, which included wins over Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky and Miss St. They followed that up by winning their first 2 games in the SEC Tournament, which included another win over the Wildcats before eventually bowing out to Texas A&M. If this team comes to play, it would not surprise me at all if they won the NIT. Either way, I like them to get the job done tonight. GIve me Vanderbilt -3! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON TOLEDO ROCKETS +6.5:

I always like to look for which team is going to be more motivated to show up and play in the first round of the NIT. Both teams will be dealing with some disappointment. Toledo won the MAC regular-season title, but were left out of the Big Dance after losing to Kent State in the championship game of the MAC Tournament. 

As for the Wolverines, Michigan has to be wondering how they got to this point. Most viewed the Wolverines as a Top 25 team coming into this season, but they could just never get on track. Back-to-back OT losses to close out the regular-season coupled with a one-and-done showing in the Big Ten Tournament (lost 50-62 to Rutgers), was enough to keep them out of the NCAA Tournament. I think they are going to have a hard time getting up for this game. 

One thing that I think is working in Toledo's favor is that while these two teams are from different states, it's just a 55 minute drive from Toledo to Ann Arbor. I think this is the perfect opponent for the Rockets to put that loss to Kent State behind them. Would not be surprised if Toledo won outright. Give me the Rockets +6.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON MEMPHIS TIGERS +6:

I'll take the points with Memphis in Sunday's American Athletic showdown against No. 1 ranked Houston. These two teams played twice in the regular-season. The Cougars won both matchups, but both games were closely contested. Houston won 72-64 at home in the first meeting and 67-65 at Memphis in the rematch. 

The Tigers have to be ecstatic that will be getting another crack at the Cougars. It's not easy beating the same team 3 times in the same season and the best part is we don't even need Memphis to win the game. I certainly think they can, but there's also a great chance if they lose that they keep it close. 

Memphis just doesn't get the credit they deserve. They were 10-3 in non-conference play with their 3 losses coming by 6 to St Louis, 1 to Seton Hall and by 3 on the road against Alabama. They were 13-5 in AAC play. Outside of their two losses to the Cougars their 3 other losses came by a combined 11 points. Two of those losses came in OT. Give me Memphis +6! 

10* NCAAB ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON DUKE BLUE DEVILS -2.5: What a matchup we have here. Both Duke and Virginia have looked great in their first two games of the ACC Tournament. Virginia beat UNC 68-59 on Thursday and Clemson 76-56 on Friday. Duke has a 96-69 win over Pitt and a 85-78 victory against Miami. 

Virginia did win at Duke in the only meeting in the regular-season, but needed OT to do it. I just think this EXTREMELY young Blue Devils team has grown up a lot since they played back on Feb. 11. In fact, Duke hasn't loss since that game. This teams reminds me a lot of the Kentucky teams that were so freshman loaded. They always seemed to peak at this time. 

I also think it's huge that these freshman have seen this Virginia defense before. In the end, I just feel the Duke offense will be too much. Give me the Blue Devils -2.5! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON INDIANA HOOSIERS -3:

I really like to back teams that I feel have a significant rest advantage in these conference tournaments. Indiana certainly has the edge in that department. Hoosiers had a double-bye. Yesterday's 70-60 win over Maryland was their first game of the tournament. 

Penn State will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days. Both of their first two games came right down to the wire. They scraped by Illinois 79-76 on Thursday and then won an absolute dog fight against Northwestern 67-65 in OT on Friday. As good as the Nittany Lions are playing down the stretch, I got to roll with Indiana in this one. Give me the Hoosiers -3!

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON INDIANA HOOSIERS PK:

I got not problem backing Indiana at a Pick'em against the Terps. Let's not get carried away with Maryland's 16-point win over Minnesota. The Gophers were a 13-point dog in that game and are easily the worst team in the conference. That's the only team Maryland has beaten away from their home floor since the beginning of December. Their only other true road win outside of Minnesota was against a bad Louisville team. Indiana had road wins over the likes of Illinois, Michigan and Purdue in Big 10 play. Hoosiers will also have the rest edge with a double-bye to start this tournament. Give me Indiana PK! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON TEXAS A&M AGGIES PK:

I got no problem backing Texas A&M at a pick'em against Arkansas in Friday's SEC Tournament action. Aggies are a team I'm thinking could surprise some people with a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. A lot of people wrote this team off after a home loss to Wofford dropped them to 6-5 overall. After that loss to Wofford, Texas A&M has gone 17-3. They were 15-3 in SEC play, second in the SEC behind only Alabama, who went 16-2. They should be a bigger favorite here. Arkansa pulled out a narrow 3-point win over Auburn yesterday. Davonte Davis played the full 40 minutes and Anthony Black logged 37 minutes. Tigers had lost 3 straight prior to that win. Give me Texas A&M PK! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON IOWA HAWKEYES -3: This to me is just too good a price to pass up on the Hawkeyes. Iowa has to be kicking themselves for not beating Nebraska at home on Sunday, as that loss prevented them from being a Top 4 seed and getting a double-bye. I just think it was a tough spot for them. They had that crazy come back late to stun Michigan State at home 112-106 on 2/25 and then went on the road and laid it on Indiana 90-68. That's also a rivalry game and I just think Nebraska put everything they had into winning that game. Certainly feels that way after watching them lose to an awful Minnesota in the opening round yesterday. 

Simply put, I expect the Hawkeyes to bounce back in a big way in this one. Ohio State had a nice win over Wisconsin on Wednesday, but that's a Badgers team that was all over the place in Big Ten play. Now they are at a big rest disadvantage playing on no rest. They are almost certainly going to get Iowa's best effort in this one. Give me the Hawkeyes -3! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON BAYLOR BEARS -3.5: 

I love Baylor in this spot and at this price. These two teams just played each other on Saturday and ISU pulled off a shocking upset, embarrassing the Bears on Senior Night 73-58. Cyclones also had a 15-point (77-62) win at Baylor earlier this season. 

It was a great win by ISU, as they had an emotional response to Caleb Grill being kicked off the team. I just don't trust this Cyclones team going forward. They had lost 4 straight and were 4-9 over their previous 13 games. The offense can disappear in a heartbeat and I don't know that they can bank on outworking the Bears in this one. If these Baylor kids have any pride, they are going to be extremely motivated for this rematch with ISU. They get the job done here. Give me Baylor -3.5! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER 

PLAY ON NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS -6:

I got no problem laying 6-points with Nebraska as they take on Minnesota in the opening round of the Big Ten tournament. The Cornhuskers really came on strong down the stretch. They were 6-2 over their last 8 Big Ten games, capping it all off with a 81-77 win at Iowa in the finale, preventing the Hawkeyes from a top 4 seed in this tournament. This team has to be coming into this thing with a ton of confidence. On the flip side, this Minnesota team is bad and I got to think there's at least a few guys on that roster that just want this thing to be over with. Give me the Cornhuskers -6! 

9* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON PITTSBURGH PANTHERS -7:

I have no problem laying the 7 with Pitt as they take on Georgia Tech in the 2nd Round of the ACC Tournament. Not only are the Panthers the much better team (they went 14-6 in ACC play, while the Yellow Jackets were 6-14), they have a big rest advantage in this one. Georgia Tech had to play in the 1st round against FSU on Tuesday in a game that went right down to the wire (won 61-60). Pitt won both regular season meetings by more than this number, winning by 11 on the road and by 8 at home. Give me the Panthers -7! 

10* NCAAB Situational PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON INDIANA HOOSIERS -4:

I love the spot and price with Indiana as a mere 4-point home favorite against Michigan. Big bounce back spot for the Hoosiers after Tuesday's ugly 68-90 loss at home to Iowa. Hawkeyes shot 13 of 23 (56.5%) from behind the 3-point line in that game. Iowa is just too good offensively that they are almost impossible to beat when they shoot it that well from the outside. Indiana had won their previous 6 games at home in Big Ten play. 

As for Michigan. The Wolverines have showed some life here down the stretch, winning 6 of their last 9 games, but this is a brutal spot for them coming off of Thursday's 2OT loss at Illinois. Michigan had 4 different guys play at least 44 of a possible 50 minutes in that game. Note that the Wolverines are playing here on just 2 days of rest, while Indiana is playing on 4 days rest. Give me the Hoosiers -4! 

9* NCAAB Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS -3:

I will gladly take my chances with Penn State as a slim 3-point home favorite against Maryland. Nittany Lions have won 4 of 5 with 3 of those wins coming on the road. This team is one of the best in the country on the offensive side of the ball. They are No. 12 in effective FG%, No. 2 in TO%, No. 7 in 3-PT%. 

Maryland on the other hand, is just not the same team on the road as they are at home. Terps only road win in Big 10 play this season was against bottom feeder Minnesota. Last time out they scored just 62-points in a 11-point loss at Ohio State. That game against the Gophers is the only time they have scored more than 67 in a road game. I just don't see the Terps being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Give me Penn State -3! 

10* NCAAB ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON NORTH CAROLINA -3.5:

I will gladly lay 3.5-points at home with North Carolina as they get ready to host rival Duke in prime time. We have been waiting and waiting for this Tar Heels team to wake up and play up to their potential.

They come in having won 3 straight and will be out for some serious revenge after blowing the first meeting between these two teams in Durham. Tar Heels ended up losing that game 57-63. They only lost by 6, despite shooting just 39.5% on 2-pt shots and going just 2-3 at the free throw line. 

Duke comes in having won 5 straight, but 4 of those 5 wins were at home. The lone road win coming at Syracuse, who is not very good this season. Even with that win, the Blue Devils are just 3-6 in ACC road games with the two other wins coming against BC (by just 1-pt) and Georgia Tech. Give me the Tar Heels -3.5! 

9* NCAAB Big Money ATS MASSACRE

PLAY ON TEXAS LONGHORNS -3: 

I love the value and spot with Texas as a slim 3-point home favorite against Kansas. Longhorns should be highly motivated here to take their crack at the Big 12 regular-season champs, especially with it being senior day and them looking to snap a 2-game skid after dropping back-to-back games at Baylor and TCU. Winning at home is something this team is pretty good at. They are 16-1 on their home floor this season. 

Kansas has looked like a legit No. 1 seed and maybe the team to beat if the tournament started today, but there's not much incentive for them in this game. They locked up that Big 12 regular-season title with Tuesday's win at home vs Texas Tech. I think they struggle to match the intensity of Texas and let's not forget the Longhorns showed they can play with KU in their previous meeting this season. Give me Texas -3! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT 

PLAY ON TCU HORNED FROGS -1.5:

I've been all over TCU down the stretch. Largely due to the market not making a big enough adjustment to Mike Miles returning from injury. K-State is 3-6 in games where Miles doesn't play (including game vs Miss St he played just 4 minutes). They are just 1-4 in Big 12 games without him. They are 17-4 with him on the floor. This to me is just too good a discount to pass up as we basically are getting them at a pick'em. 

Winning games in the Big 12 has been a struggle for Oklahoma, home and away. The Sooners are just 4-13 in conference play. When they went to TCU earlier this season, the Horned Frogs went on to win that game by 27 points (79-52). Give me TCU -1.5! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS -4.5:

I got no problem laying the 4.5 at home with West Virginia as they host Kansas State. The Mountaineers are one of the more underrated teams in the country. They come into this game no where close to being ranked in the Top 25 and yet they are the No. 19 ranked team overall at KenPom. 

West Virginia has one of the best home court advantages in the country. (KenPom has it No. 2 overall). K-State comes in ranked No. 11 in both the AP and Coaches Polls and are riding a 4-game win streak. Thing is, 3 of the 4 wins came at home. The lone road win was against a reeling Oklahoma State team by just 5 points. Prior to that win over the Cowboys, K-State had lost 5 straight on the road in league play. Give me West Virginia -4.5! 

10* NCAAB Pac-12 PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON USC TROJANS +1.5: Really like USC as a 1.5-point home dog against Arizona. The Trojans come into this game having won 4 straight and 8 of 10 overall. They just won at Colorado and at Utah in a span of just 3 days. They dominated in both games, beating the Buffaloes by 19 and the Utes by 13. 

I got to think they will be very excited about this game. They did not play well in a 66-81 loss at Arizona back in mid-January. The biggest different in that game was 3-point shooting. USC was 4-17 (23.5%) from deep, while the Wildcats were 12 of 24 (50%). The Trojans should shoot better at home, while Arizona should see some regression. 

One other thing to keep in mind, is that these two are pretty much destined to meet in the semis of the Pac-12 Tournament. They are tied for 2nd in the Pac-12 standings, 3-games back of UCLA with two to play and 2 in front of Arizona St. If UCLA wins at home over the Sun Devils, these will be your No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the tournament. Having already beat USC and knowing they might face them again, maybe Arizona holds a little back in this one. Either way, I like the Trojans to win this game outright. Give me USC +1.5! 

10* NCAAB Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS -3.5:

I'll take my chances with Northwestern as a 3.5-point home favorite against Penn State. This to me is the perfect spot to back the Wildcats. Northwestern has lost their last two games. Both were on the road. One they gave up a massive lead at Illinois and the other was against a red-hot Maryland team. Prior to those losses they had won 5 straight, which included a 3-game home win streak against Purdue, Iowa and Indiana.

I got to think they are going to be fired up for this one. Not only to get back on track, but it's senior night and they got two good ones in Boo Buie and Chase Audige. Nittany Lions have won their last two on the road, but they came against Minnesota and Ohio State. Prior to that they had lost 6 in a row on the road. Give me Northwestern -3.5! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE

PLAY ON MARYLAND TERRAPINS -1.5:

I don't know how you don't lay the 1.5 with the Terps in this one. This Ohio State team has been one of the most overrated teams all country. Sure they just beat Illinois by 12 at home in their last game. Who cares. They were 1-14 over their previous 15 games. 

Maryland is the exact opposite. This team doesn't get near the hype it should. The Terps are ranked No. 21, but have been playing more like a Top 15 team. They are 8-2 over their last 10 games with the two losses being by 5 at Mich St and by 4 in OT at Nebraska. Their only two losses outside of the Big Ten are to Tennessee and UCLA. It's not easy winning on the road in the Big Ten, but this feels like a big enough mismatch. Give me the Terps -1.5! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER 

PLAY ON PROVIDENCE FRIARS -3.5:

I'll take my chances with Providence as a 3.5-point home favorite. Friars are a perfect 15-0 on their home floor this season. Having already knocked off all the Big Elites at home (Marquette, UConn, Creighton and Villanova. 

Xavier is a solid team, but they struggled to put away Providence at home in the first meeting. Musketeers won that game 85-83 in OT. Friars are 21-8. They have just two loses vs teams outside the Top 40. One of those coming against St Louis on a neutral floor by 3 on no rest. They also lost by 5 at St John's. Xavier did just win at Seton Hall, but had dropped each of their previous 3 on the road. Give me Providence -3.5! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS MASSACRE 

PLAY ON VILLANOVA WILDCATS -1.5:

I'll gladly take my chances with Villanova as a slim 1.5-point road favorite against Seton Hall. This is really as simple as I think we got two teams headed in different directions down the stretch. The Wildcats are surging towards the finish line. Villanova looked dead in the water after a 3-8 stretch early in 2023, but they have since won 5 of 6. The last two being a road win at Xavier and a 12-point win at home over Creighton. Good programs always seem to peak at this time. 

A month ago, Seton Hall was rolling, having won 7 of 8. Things have took a turn, as they are just 1-4 in their last 5. Yes, this came against a tough slate of opponents. The four losses were to Creighton, Villanova, UConn and Xavier. I'm more concerned about how they played in those losses, losing by 13 to Creighton, by 9 to UConn and by 22 most recently at home to Xavier. Give me Villanova -1.5! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER 

PLAY ON INDIANA HOOSIERS -5.5:

Easy play for me on the Hoosiers as a 5.5-point home favorite against Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been awful on the road in Big Ten play. They are 1-5 in their last 6 on the road, with the only win coming against an awful Minnesota team (didn't play great - only scored 68 points). In the 5 losses they have a 16-point loss at Ohio State, 14-point loss at Purdue, 20-point loss at Northwestern and a 12-point loss at Wisconsin. 

In their 5 road losses they are scoring just 64.6 ppg. That's nothing close to their season average. Iowa for the season is putting up 80.4 ppg and rank No. 5 in the country in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency rating. 

They needed 91 points to beat Indiana by just 2 at home earlier this season. Hoosiers have also gotten better since these two teams last played. That loss to Iowa came in a 2-5 stretch. They have since gone 10-3 with all 3 of the losses coming on the road. Indiana's only home loss all season is by 1-point to Northwestern back in that 2-5 stretch. Give me the Hoosiers -5.5! 

10* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON PENN STATE -2.5: 

I will gladly take my chances with the Nittany Lions as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against Rutgers on Sunday. The Scarlet Knights aren't exactly playing their best basketball down the stretch and I just feel this team is getting way too much respect on the road against a Penn State team that is 12-2 SU on their home floor this season. Nittany Lions only home loss since Dec. 7th was in OT against Wisconsin. 

Yes, Rutgers annihilated Penn State 65-45 at home back in late January. You just can't read too much into results in the Big Ten with how drastically different a lot of these teams are playing at home compared to on the road. Rutgers is one of those teams that is much worse on the road. Scarlet Knights are 4-7 SU in road games this season. They are 356th out of 363 teams in Hasalmetrics away from home rating. Rutgers is scoring 63.7 ppg away from home, while Penn State is averaging 79.1 ppg on 49.8% shooting at home. Give me the Nittany Lions -2.5!

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON KENTUCKY WILDCATS -4:

I don't have any problem laying 4-points with Kentucky at home against Auburn. I cashed a winning ticket on the Wildcats as a mere 2-point favorite at Florida on Wednesday. As I mentioned in my analysis of that game, I just feel that Kentucky is one of those teams surging to the finish line. Something they tend to do quite a bit with these underclassmen loaded teams under John Calipari. The game before beating the Gators, they won by 12 at home against Tennessee. 

Auburn to me is just getting too much respect here. The Tigers are a solid team, but their only road win this entire season vs a team ranked inside the Top 100 at KenPom is a win over No. 98 ranked Washington. As much as Kentucky gets the juices flowing, there's a much bigger game looming on deck Wednesday against rival Alabama. I just think Kentucky dominates this game from start to finish. Give me the Wildcats -4! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER

PLAY ON BAYLOR BEARS -3.5:

Absolutely love this spot for Baylor as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against Texas. This might now feel like the time to jump on the Bears after losing by double-digits on the road in back-to-back games vs Kansas and Kansas State. The thing is, this is just one of those teams that struggle to play well on the road and look like a Final Four team at home. Bears are 13-2 at home this season with the two losses coming by a combined 3-points with 1 of those coming in OT. 

Texas is kinda of the same way. The Longhorns are 3-1 in their last 4, but all 3 wins came at home. The lone loss was by 7 on the road against Texas Tech. I also feel that despite the recent results, Baylor is a better team now than they were early in the year. People are quick to forget that they had won 10 of 11 before losing their last two. Give me the Bears -3.5! 

8* NCAAB Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE

PLAY ON ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS +8.5:

This is just too many points to pass up on the Razorbacks in this spot. Talent wise, Alabama is the far superior team, but basketball is not the biggest focal point surrounding this team right now. All anyone is talking about is Brandon Miller and his involvement in a murder. Lot of people don't think he should be playing.

Give Miller some props he played great despite all the negative publicity around him in their last game, scoring 41 with 7 rebounds, 2 blocks and 3 steals. Thing is, Alabama needed OT to sneak out a 78-76 win on the road against a bad South Carolina team. 

I don't think they can be less than 100% locked into playing and expect to beat this Arkansas team by more than 8 points. The Razorbacks are no joke and you know they are going to be all-in for this one. Give me Arkansas +8.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS -2:

I will gladly lay 2-points at home with Oklahoma State as they get ready to host Kansas State. Great buy-low spot on the Cowboys, who come in having lost 3 straight. A lot of teams would be on a 3-game skid given this slate. It started with a loss at home to Kansas, then two difficult road games vs TCU and West Virginia (had to play the Mountaineers on just 1-day of rest).

They have been off since Monday and I look for them to bounce back with a great performance here at home. Keep in mind that prior to losing 3 in a row, they had won 7 of 8, including 5 straight at home. 

K-State is off back-to-back big wins at home vs ISU and Baylor, but those are two teams that have really struggled away from home. Wildcats have lost 5 straight Big 12 road games, which includes a 8-point loss at Texas Tech and 14-point setback at Oklahoma. Give me the Cowboys -2! 

10* NCAAB PAC-12 PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON COLORADO BUFFALOES -2.5: This to me is just too good a price to pass up on Colorado at home. The Buffaloes are just one of those teams who look like an NCAA Tournament team on their home floor and then a team that doesn't even deserve the NIT on the road. Colorado is 11-2 at CU Events Center and just 4-11 on the road. This to me is also a Buffaloes team that is sneaky good. People forget they beat Tennessee by 12 (78-66) and destroyed Texas A&M by 28 (103-75). They got a lot of close losses. Of their 13 losses, their largest defeat is just 14 points and that was on the road vs UCLA. 

USC comes into this game with some momentum, as they have won 6 of their last 8. I think it has them overvalued on the road. Trojans have just 1 road win since the start of January. Buffs have a solid defense. They are No. 2 in the Pac-12 in Offensive Efficiency. They are No. 2 in TO%, No. 1 in offensive rebound rate. 

USC's got a good defense, but are No. 334 in the country in giving up offensive rebounds, which is an area the Buffs do well in, ranking No. 78 overall. Colorado's offense is just different at home. They are shooting 47.1% from the field and getting to the foul line 20 times a game at home. They shoot 43.7% on the season. That tells you how night and day it is with this team. Give me the Buffaloes -2.5! 

10* NCAAB Big East PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON UCONN HUSKIES -7: I got no problem laying the 7 with UConn at home against Providence. The Huskies looked elite during a 14-0 start to the season. They then hit a wall and lost 5 of 6. They are no longer viewed in the same way. I think they are still that team and are on the right track to close out the season. UConn has won 5 of their last 7. The two losses coming by 3-points a piece. They had a 1-pt loss at Seton Hall at the tail end of that 1-5 stretch. 

Last time out they beat Seton Hall at home by 9, revenging that earlier loss to the Pirates. Their previous home game they beat Marquette by 15 after the Golden Flashes had beat them by 6 earlier in the season. Now it's time for them to get their revenge on the Friars. Providence won the first meeting 73-61. 

Friars aren't exactly playing bad coming in, which is why the betting public is all over them and the points. I just think the Huskies are a different animal at home and will easily cover this number. Give me UConn -7

10* NCAAB Smart Money PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON KANSAS STATE WILDCATS -2: I'll take my chances with K-State as a 2-point home dog against Baylor. I get the Bears have been playing much better of late, but this is not an ideal spot for them. They just played one of their biggest games of the season to date at Kansas. A loss they could have a hard time getting over, as they watched a 40-23 1st half lead turn into a 71-87 loss. Could be hard to bounce back playing another road game with a mere 1-day break between games. 

K-State is the exact opposite. They are now just 8-6 in Big 12 play after a 6-1 start. Big thing to note with that, is 4 of their 5 losses during their slide have come on the road. Their only home loss all season is a 3-point setback against Texas. This feels like a bit of a statement game for them. Remind everyone they are one of the Big 12's best. Give me the Wildcats +2!

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON TCU HORNED FROGS -1.5: I'll take my chances with TCU as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against Kansas in Monday's Big 12 matchup. I cashed an easy winner on TCU Saturday, as they crushed Oklahoma State 100-75. No surprise they played their best game in weeks in the first game they got back Mike Miles Jr.. He sat out the previous 5 games and played just 4 minutes in the game he was injured. TCU is now 17-4 with him on the floor with 3 of the 4 losses by 4 or fewer points. They were 1-5 in those 6 games he didn't start and finish. 

So while Kansas is a very good team and off an impressive come from behind win over Baylor (won by 16 after trailing by as many as 17), I think TCU is the right side in this one. It takes a lot out of you overcoming a deficit like KU did on Saturday. Also not an ideal spot playing on just 1 day of rest in what will be their 3rd road game in the last 10 days. Give me TCU -1.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS +1.5: I'll gladly take my chances with Northwestern as a 1.5-point home dog against Iowa. I just feel that the Hawkeyes are getting way too much respect in this one. The home/away splits for Iowa is pretty significant. They are 13-2 at home compared to just 4-7 on the road. They have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road in Big Ten play, with the only win being a 68-56 win over Minnesota (didn't play great, Gophers are just bad). 

Northwestern is 12-4 on their home floor, having won 4 of their last 5 at home in Big Ten play. The last two being some big time wins. They knocked off Purdue last Sunday and then snuck out a win over Indiana on Wednesday. 

Wildcats will be out for revenge in this one, as they watched an early 9-point 1st half lead turn into a 16-point road loss when these two teams played in Iowa City back on Jan. 31. Iowa simply couldn't miss in that game. They shot 61.3% on 2-pt attempts and 47.6% on 3-pt attempts. They are shooting 51.9% (105th) on 2-pt shots for the season and 35.1% on 3-pt attempts (126th). Worth noting they are only shooting 29.7% from 3 on the road this year. 

Keep in mind that was a tired Northwestern team when these two last played. Wildcats were playing their 4th game in a span of 9 days. I think that had a lot to do with Iowa's great shooting, as this is a team that on the season ranks 23rd, allowing a mere 45.4% on 2-pt attempts. Give me Northwestern +1.5! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON MICHIGAN WOLVERINES -2: 

I'm going to take another shot with Michigan. This time as a slim 2-point home favorite against in-state rival Michigan State. Wolverines come in having lost their last two games, but could have easily won both. They suffered a heartbreaking 61-62 loss at home to Indiana last Saturday after leading by double-digits in the 1st half. They followed that up with a 5-point loss at Wisconsin.

I like the Wolverines to respond here with a huge effort and get their revenge on Sparty, who only won by 6 at home in the previous meeting this season. Michigan State is just 6-15 ATS last 3 seasons in road games 15+ games into the season vs team with a winning record, losing in this spot by close to 8 ppg. Too much value to pass up with the Wolverines. Give me Michigan -2

10* NCAAB SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH 

PLAY ON MISSOURI TIGERS -2: 

I love the value and spot for Missouri as a slim 2-point home favorite against Texas A&M. The Tigers got embarrassed on the road Tuesday in a 56-89 loss at Auburn. Missouri trailed in that game by as many as 49 points. Whenever a team has an awful performance like Missouri did, they end up showing some decent value in the next game. Expect a complete 180 in terms of effort and shots should fall at home, where Missouri is 14-2 on the season with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of Kansas and Alabama. 

Texas A&M has really taken the SEC by storm, as no one saw this team jumping out to a 11-2 start in conference play after their 6-5 start to the season. They are 13-2 over their last 15 games, but 9 of those 15 games have come at home. Simply too good a price to pas up on the Tigers. Give me Missouri -2! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT

PLAY ON TCU HORNED FROGS -5.5:

I'll lay the 5.5 with TCU at home against Oklahoma State on Saturday. Perfect buy-low spot on the Horned Frogs. TCU comes into this game having lost 4 straight. A streak that started with a 73-79 loss on the road to the Cowboys. 

The big thing to note is that TCU has had to play each of their last 4 games without one of the best players in the conference in Mike Miles Jr (Preseason Big 12 Player of the Year). Horned Frogs are 15-5 with him on the floor and just 2-5 without him. 

Oklahoma State had been rolling, but had their 5-game winning streak snapped in a 76-87 loss at home to Kansas. I think they struggle to pick themselves up on the road against a very underrated, motivated and desperate Horned Frogs team. Give me TCU -5.5! 

9* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON KANSAS STATE WILDCATS -3:

I'll lay the 3-points with K-State at home against Iowa State. I'll be the first to admit, I've not had great luck betting against the Cyclones this year, but this is just too good a spot and price to pass up with the Wildcats. 

We know we are going to get a huge effort here from K-State, as they enter this matchup having lost their last 2 and 4 of their last 5. Thing is, 3 of those losses came on the road, where wins are extremely hard to come by for Big 12 teams. The lone loss at home was by just 3-points to Texas in a game they led by as many as 14 in the 1st half. That's the only home loss on the resume for the Wildcats this season. ISU is a great home team (I've backed them a lot at Hilton), but aren't as formidable on the road. After winning their first two road games in Big 12 play, ISU has lost 5 straight away from Ames. That streak extends to 6 today. Give me Kansas State -3! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON IOWA STATE CYCLONES -3.5: I will gladly take my chances with Iowa State as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against TCU. Both of these teams come in desperate for a win. Horned Frogs have lost 3 straight and the Cyclones have dropped 4 of their last 5. I still feel this is too low a price for ISU to be laying at home. Yes, they just lost at home to Oklahoma State 56-64 on Saturday. That was their first home loss of the season. In their previous 5 conference home games they had bat Kansas by 15, K-State by 4, Texas by 11, Texas Tech by 34 and Baylor by 15. 

Let's also not ignore just how bad they shot in that loss to TCU. The Cyclones were 13 of 35 (37.1%) on 2-PT attempts. They shoot 51.4% on 2-PT attempts for the season. Those kind of nights happen against elite defenses like Oklahoma State. Now TCU's defense is pretty darn good, but it's not on the same level as the Cowboys. It's also a defense that comes in having not played well. They have allowed 70+ points in 5 straight games. Give me the Cyclones -3.5! 

9* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS -3: I'll take my chances with Mississippi State as a slim 3-point home favorite against Kentucky. The Bulldogs are hot. Mississippi State has won 5 straight. A win streak that started after they opened up 1-7 in SEC play. People overlook how many close games this team lost earlier in the year. They two losses to Alabama by a combined 14 points. They have 4 other losses by 8 or fewer. 

They are special defensively. Bulldogs are No. 4 in the country in defensive efficiency and No. 15 in both effective FG% defense and Turnover%. Kentucky got talent, but are not as good as they have been in the past. They come in poor form having lost by 15 at home to Arkansas and by 7 on the road to Georgia in their last two games. Give me the Bulldogs -3! 

10* NCAAB Big 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS +2.5: No way I'm passing up on Oklahoma State as a home dog. The Cowboys should not be a dog at home to any team in the Big 12 with how they are playing. After starting just 9-8 and 1-4 in Big 12 play, Oklahoma State has gone 7-1 over their last 8 games. They are on a 5-game winning streak, most recently knocking off a very good ISU team 64-56 on the road (Cyclones first home loss of the season). 

Kansas is good, but they feel a bit overpriced to me, which is what you would expect. People just bet Kansas because it's Kansas and the books will take advantage of that and put a tax on the Jayhawks. Kansas has been vulnerable on the road, especially on conference games. They have lost 3 of their last 4 conference road games with the only win against a mediocre Oklahoma team. Not saying Jayhawks can't win this game, but they should not be favored. Give me Oklahoma State +2.5!

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT

Play on North Carolina Tar Heels -4.5: I think this is a fair price and even better spot to lay it with North Carolina at home against Miami. It just feels to me like the Tar Heels have went through the motions for the first 3+ months of the season. Which is why they have been so inconsistent. It could plague them all season, but teams can flip a switch. Prime example of that would be Baylor in the Big 12. 

It's do or die time for the Tar Heels and I think the 3-game losing streak to start February will end up being the turning point of their season. All 3 of those games could have went their way. Had they, this team would be on a 9-game winning streak and 14-2 run over their last 16. They bounced back with a 20-point thrashing of Clemson on Saturday. 

I just like them to stay hot, especially at home. Miami is a good team, but they really haven't been tested on the road. This will be just their 2nd true road game vs a team ranked in the Top 60 at KenPom since playing at UCF (No. 57) back around Thanksgiving. Give me North Carolina -4.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON MICHIGAN WOLVERINES -2.5: I love the Wolverines as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against Indiana on Saturday. Perfect time to sell-high on the Hoosiers, who are coming off two huge home wins over Purdue and Rutgers. They are also 7-1 over their last 8 games. Thing is, most of that success came at home (5 of the 7 wins) and one of the road wins was against Minnesota. Last time they played on the road, they lost by 11 at Maryland. This is also a team that has lost on the road by 19 at Penn State, 22 at Kansas and by 15 at Rutgers. 

This might not be a top tier Michigan team, but one that I think is better than it gets credit for. Wolverines are 8-5 in Big 10 play. They come in having won 3 straight. Of their 5 conference losses, three have come by 6 or fewer and one was a 9-point loss at Iowa in OT (should have won in regulation). Their only loss at home in Big Ten play is a 5-point loss to Purdue. This is simply way too good a price to pass up with Michigan. Give me the Wolverines -2.5! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON AUBURN TIGERS +2.5: I really like this spot for Auburn and believe they are going to win this game outright. Neville Arena is not an easy place to win at and I expect the home crowd to be electric with the No. 3 ranked Crimson Tide coming to town. Yes, Auburn has lost 4 of their last 5, but 3 of those losses came on the road by 5 or fewer points. People forget this team was 16-3 to start the year. 

Nothing against Alabama, who is a very good basketball team, but they haven't looked nearly as good on the road as they have at home. Might sound crazy for a team that is 5-0 in SEC road games this year, but the numbers back it up. In their last 2 road games they got annihilated 93-69 by Oklahoma and only beat a bad LSU team by 10. Never led by more than 12 the entire game. I like the Tigers to step up and get a signature win to solidify their Tournament status. Give me Auburn +2.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON PURDUE BOILERMAKERS -8: This might seem like a steep price to lay on Purdue against an Iowa team that comes in having won 3 straight and are 7-2 in their last 9 games. Big thing to note about this 7-2 stretch, is 6 of the 7 wins came at home, where Iowa is just a different team. 

Iowa is shooting 45.8% from the field and 35.2% from deep in all games this season, yet are only connecting on 40.7% from the field and 29.3% from deep away from home. They just aren't a great 3-point shooting team and aren't going to get any easy looks inside against Purdue and 7-4 big man Zach Edey. 

I also love this spot for the Boilermakers. Not only is Purdue going to be motivated coming off a loss at Indiana, but I got to think there's some want back against the Hawkeyes after losing to them in last year's Big 10 Tournament Championship Game. 

Boilermakers really dominated both meetings in the regular-season last year. They won by 10 at Iowa in a game they led by 20 in the 2nd half. They did win by just 7 at home, but in that game by 19 with under 10 minutes to go. They should have no problem winning here by 10 or more. Give me Purdue -8! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS -4: I'll gladly take my chances with Penn State laying 4 at home against the Badgers. Good time to buy low on the Nittany Lions. Penn State is just 5-7 in Big 10 play and have lost 6 of their last 9 overall. Thing is, none of those losses came on their home floor. The 3 wins they did have, all came at home and all were relatively easy wins. They beat Indiana 85-66, Nebraska 76-65 and Michigan 83-61. 

Wisconsin is also trending in the wrong direction. Badgers are just 2-7 in their last 9. Thing is, it hasn't just been a downfall due to playing a bunch of games on the road. They have 3 home losses during this stretch. I have a hard time seeing Wisconsin figure it out on the road against a talented and hungry Penn State squad. Give me the Nittany Lions -4!

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT

PLAY ON KANSAS STATE WILDCATS -4.5: I'll gladly take my chances with K-State covering the 4.5 at home against a TCU team that continues to play without their best player, Mike Miles Jr. There will be no overlooking the Horned Frogs for the Wildcats, who I expect to be extremely motivated to take the floor after losing their last 2. They are now just 6-4 in Big 12 play after starting 6-1. Thing is, the 3 losses came against arguably the 3 best teams in the league in ISU, Kansas and Texas. 

Both teams will be playing this game on short rest, as each will have had just 2 days off following their game on Saturday. I just think it's a much tougher spot for TCU, especially with them missing Miles Jr. Horned Frogs are also playing their 2nd road game in 4 days, where K-State had zero travel with Saturday's game also being at home. Wildcats 11-0 at home before losing by 3 at home to Texas last time out. I don't see them dropping back-to-back games on their home floor. Give me K-State -4.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS -3: I'll gladly take my chances with Michigan State as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Terrapins. It's been a tough go for the Spartans of late. Michigan State is just 2-5 SU over their last 7 games, which I believe has them undervalued in this spot. The Spartans' recent struggles have a lot to do with their schedule. Only 1 of the 5 losses during this stretch came on their home floor and that was a 1-point loss to No. 1 ranked Purdue. 

Maryland on the other hand comes in way overvalued. Terps are riding a 4-game winning streak. Thing is, 3 of the 4 wins came at home and the lone road win was against a Minnesota team that is 1-11 in Big 10 play. Prior to that win over the Gophers, Maryland 0-5 in Big Ten road games. Give me Michigan State -3! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER

PLAY ON SYRACUSE ORANGE -2: I really like the value we are getting with Syracuse at basically a pick'em on the road against Boston College. Homecourt isn't as big a factor in the ACC like it is in the Big 10 and Big 12. It's really all about finding good matchups and spots to back a team. 

It's why I really like Syracuse in this one. The Orange are just 6-6 in ACC play and have lost 3 straight. All 3 came against teams in the Top 60 with two of those being narrow home losses to UNC and Virginia. BC ranks 168th overall at KenPom. The Eagles have won 3 of their last 4, but only one of those was a somewhat decent win. That being a 62-54 home win over No. 70 Clemson last time out. The other two were wins over No. 157 Notre Dame and No. 293 Louisville. THeir only other win this season over a Top 100 team was a 70-65 OT win at home vs Va Tech back in December. 

The matchup heavily favors the Orange. To really attack Syracuse's zone, you got to be able to hit from the outside. BC doesn't like to shoot 3's (335th in 3PA/FGA) and don't make many when they do (342nd in 3P%). Eagles have done a nice job generating offense on the break, but Syracuse has one of the top transition defenses in the ACC. I don't think it will be much better for the Eagles defense. Syracuse has won and covered each of the last 5 meetings in this series. Give me the Orange -2! 

10* NCAAB Big 12 PLAY OF THE YEAR

PLAY ON OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS -3.5: I took one on the chin betting against Oklahoma State in Tuesday's 71-61 win on the road against in-state rival Oklahoma. Cowboys had complete control of that game from the get go. That's now 4 wins in their last 5 games for Oklahoma State with the only loss coming on the road against Texas. 

TCU comes into this game with the better record and are ranked No. 15 in the country (Oklahoma State not ranked at this time). This might seem like a decent price to back them, even with Mike Miles Jr. out. They won without him in their last game at home against West Virginia. I actually think we are getting a discount here on the Cowboys. 

The Horned Frogs would be nowhere near a Top 25 team without Miles Jr. and they didn't exactly dominate the Mountaineers without him, winning by just 4 points on their home floor. They did so, shooting 58.3% from inside the 2-pt line. They were a dreadful 2-10 (20%) from behind the 3-pt line. Oklahoma State's 2PT% defense is one of the best in the country. I just don't think the Horned Frogs are going to be able to generate enough offense without Miles Jr to keep this game close at all. Give me Oklahoma State -3.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS -3: I'll gladly take my chances with Northwestern as a slim 3-point home favorite against Michigan. Northwestern is coming off what looks to be an ugly 70-86 loss at Iowa, but that game really didn't get away from them until the final 10 minutes. It was 56-57 at the 10 minute mark and then Iowa went on a 29-14 run to end the game.

I think it has the Wildcats a bit undervalued here at home against the Wolvines. Northwestern is 10-3 on their home floor this season. Michigan is just 1-5 in true road games with the only win coming against B10 bottom feeders Minnesota. They just lost by 23 on the road to Penn State last time out. 

Northwestern is also out for revenge from a 78-85 loss at Michigan back on Jan. 15. Wildcats couldn't have started slower in that game, falling behind 20-9 in the first 10 minutes. They would storm back and take the lead by half, but just ran out of gas late, much like they did on the road against Iowa. Look for them to start a lot stronger and maintain that edge at home. Give me the Wildcats -3! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON OKLAHOMA SOONERS -3.5: I'll take my chances with the Sooners as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against in-state rival Oklahoma State. These two teams played just a couple of weeks ago in Stillwater, with the Cowboys securing an impressive 72-56 win. It was a dreadful 2nd half for Oklahoma in that game, as they led 30-24 at the half. I'm not too concerned about the margin of victory in that one. It really just comes down to home court for me. 

Oklahoma State has really struggled away from home. They are 0-4 in Big 12 road games and 3 of the 4 losses have come by 8 or more points. Oklahoma is just 2-3 at home in Big 12 play, but their losses have come against 3 of the better teams in the league in Texas, Baylor and Iowa State by a combined 6 points. On Saturday they showed just how good they can be at home in a 93-69 thrashing of then No. 2 Alabama. I think there would be some concern of a letdown off a big win like that it if wasn't Oklahoma State as their opponent, especially having already lost to them earlier this season. I think they come out on fire tonight and that letdown probably comes on Saturday in a game at West Virginia. Give me the Sooners -3.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON MARYLAND TERRAPINS -2.5: I'll gladly take my chances with Maryland laying just 2.5 at home against the Hoosiers. Even after going against Indiana at home against Ohio State and losing, I still think it's wise to look to fade these Hoosiers right now. Indiana is being way overvalued on a 5-game winning streak. 

It's hard to sustain that kind of success in the Big Ten, especially on the road against a good team. Maryland is 11-1 at home this season. The only loss coming to UCLA. They are 5-0 at home in Big Ten play. Just way too good a price to pass up. Give me the Terps -2.5! 

9* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE

PLAY ON OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +5.5: I will gladly take my chances with the Buckeyes as a slim 5.5-point road favorite against Indiana. I just think this a great spot and price to sell-high on the Hoosiers, who come into this game having won 4 straight. Also a good buy-low spot on Ohio State who has gone just 1-6 over their last 7. 

Buckeyes recent record may suggest they aren't that good, but it's been a bit of bad luck. During this stretch they have a 2-point loss at home to Purdue, 3-point loss at home to Minnesota, 2-point OT loss at Turgers and 3-point loss at Nebraska. You won't find many 11-9 teams that are ranked inside the Top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency (No. 9). Ohio State also is 27th in effective FG% defense. 

Indiana hasn't exactly fared well against top tier offenses. They are 9-0 vs teams that rank outside the Top 150. That makes them 5-6 vs teams in the Top 150 and 2-4 vs teams in the Top 50. They are also just 3-5 vs teams in the Top 100 in defensive effective FG%. Just a few too many points for the Hoosiers to be laying. Give me Ohio State +5.5! 

10* NCAAB Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON KANSAS STATE -4.5: I absolutely love the value and price with K-State as a mere 4.5-point home favorite against Florida. Wildcats should be pretty motivated for this one after losing at Iowa State on Tuesday. Just the third time all season K-State has failed to come out with a victory. The other two also coming in true road games. Wildcats are a perfect 10-0 at home. 

I also think it's a great spot here to sell-high on Florida. Gators come in having won 5 of their last 6, but all 5 wins came against teams ranked outside the Top 50 at KenPom. Florida is 0-7 this season against Top 50 teams. Of those 7 losses, 5 came out of conference, including losses by 9 on a neutral to Oklahoma and by 29 on a neutral to West Virginia, who are both 2-6 in Big 12 play this year (K-State is 6-2). Simply put, the Wildcats should be a much bigger favorite here. Give me K-State -4.5! 

8* NCAAB Public Money ATS MASSACRE

PLAY ON WISCONSIN BADGERS +2: I got no problem backing the Badgers as a 2-point home dog against Illinois. I honestly don't think the Fighting Illini should be favored on the road here. Wisconsin has lost 5 of their last 6, which looks bad, but 4 of those 5 losses were on the road. That includes a 69-79 loss at Illinois, where the Badgers were missing their best player in Tyler Wahl. 

Illinois appears to have gotten things on track with wins in 5 of their last 6, but I'm not so sure. Outside of their win against a Wahl-less Wisconsin, they beat Mich St and Ohio St at home, while also winning at Minnesota and Nebraska. I just think it has them way overvalued on the road against a team like Wisconsin. Note those are the only two true road wins on Illinois' resume. Their other two Big 10 road games resulted in a 5-point loss at Maryland and a 13 point loss at Northwestern. Simply too much value on the Badgers at home. Give me Wisconsin +2! 

8* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT

PLAY ON TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS -2.5: I will gladly take my chances with Texas Tech as a slim 2.5-point road favorite against LSU. The Red Raiders couldn't have drawn up a worse start to Big 12 play. After going 10-2 in non-conference play with their only two losses coming to Creighton and Ohio State, Texas Tech sits winless at 0-8 in Big 12 play. 

I just think it speaks volumes to how good the Big 12 is this year and if you are off just the slightest bit, you are going to lose. It's not like the Red Raiders haven't been competitive. Of their 8 conference losses, 5 have come by 7 or fewer. If they just win 4 of those and are 4-4 in Big 12 play, the narrative on this team is completely different. 

I just think their record and the 8-game losing streak they bring into this game has them way undervalued against a bad LSU team. Tigers were 11-1 in non-conference play, but played the 347th toughest out of conference slate. They are 1-7 in SEC play and really have been competitive of late. Their last 6 losses have come by at least 11 points. I just think Texas Tech is a much better team from top to bottom. Give me the Red Raiders -2.5! 

10* NCAAB Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON MICHIGAN STATE -2.5: I'll take my chances with the Spartans as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against Iowa on Thursday. Iowa is one of several Big Ten teams that I'm looking to back at home and fade on the road. Since Big Ten play resumed in late December, Iowa has gone 3-0 at home and just 1-3 on the road. Two of those road losses weren't close, as they fell by 15 at Nebraska and by 16 last time out at Ohio State. They also trailed by as many as 18 on the road in a 4-point loss at Penn State. 

One of the biggest reasons I believe Iowa has such big home/away splits, is they aren't a good defensive team and can't rely on their shooting to bail them out on the road. I also think there's value here due to the fact that Michigan State comes in having lost 3 of their last 4. Most recently losing by 13 on the road to Indiana. Nothing shocking about their 1-3 stretch. The other two losses were at Illinois and at home by 1 to Purdue. Their only other home loss besides the defeat to the Boilermakers was a loss to Northwestern back in the first week of December. Simply too good a price and spot to pass up. Give me the Spartans -2.5! 

9* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON TEXAS A&M AGGIES +4.5: Give me the Aggies as a 4.5-point road dog against Auburn. Even after Saturday's 67-76 loss at Kentucky as a 5-point dog, Texas A&M is a team I want to be looking to back right now. Aggies had started out a perfect 5-0 in SEC play prior to the loss to the Wildcats, which included road wins over Florida and South Carolina. This team also won by 16 at DePaul and lost by just 4 at Memphis. 

They are not going to be intimidated by playing on the road at Auburn. I'm also not so sure the Tigers are as good as their 16-3 record would lead you to believe. Auburn has played 4 Top 100 teams on their home floor and only dominated in one. They won by just 5 over St. Louis, by 3 vs Florida and by 6 against Miss St. 

I do not like the matchup either for Auburn. I really question where the offense is going to come from for the Tigers. Auburn is one of the worst 3-pt shooting teams in the country, ranking 332nd in 3P%. Aggies will let you shoot 3's. They aren't going to give up anything easy inside. Texas A&M is 18th in the country in 2P% defense. If Auburn struggles like they have from deep all season in this game, they won't just not cover, they will lose outright. Give me Texas A&M +4.5! 

8* NCAAB - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR

PLAY ON NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS +3: I will gladly take my chances with Nebraska as a home dog against the Wildcats. The Cornhuskers are a team that I'm looking to back at home, especially as an underdog. Like a lot of these Big Ten teams, Nebraska is a different animal at home. They are just 10-10 overall, yet come in with a 7-2 record at home. One of those losses coming in OT vs Purdue. 

So while Northwestern has the much better record at 13-5 (4-3 in Big Ten play), I'm not so sure they should be favored in this game. Wildcats could have quite the hole at shooting guard in this game. Their top two options at the position, Ty Berry and Julian Roper, are both listed as questionable with ankle injuries suffered in Monday's win over Wisconsin. I got a hard time believing either plays given they have had just 1 day off. It really makes it tough for Northwestern to take Boo Buie or Chase Audige off the floor and both of those guys played a ton of minutes in the win over the Badgers. I just don't think the Wildcats will have the legs or depth to compete at a high level on the road tonight. Give me the Cornhuskers +3! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT

PLAY ON ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI -3.5: I'll gladly take my chances with the Fighting Illini as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against Ohio State. Really an easy play for me on Illinois after that embarrassing 65-80 loss at home to Indiana last time out. 

It was just an all-around bad showing and this team has had performances like that. The key to me is they have showed the ability to bounce back. Let's also not ignore the fact that in the loss to the Hoosiers, they had no answer for Indiana star big man Trayce Jackson-Davis. He had 35 points on 15 of 19 shooting. 

Ohio State doesn't have a guy like that inside. In fact, there's a good chance they are going to have play this game without one of their better big guys in Zed Key, who injured his knee in their last game against Iowa and is listed as questionable. Either way, I like Illinois to roll in this one. Give me the Fighting Illini -3.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON INDIANA HOOSIERS -4: I will gladly lay the 4-points with Indiana at home against Michigan State. The Hoosiers come into this game off impressive back-to-back wins. First it was a 63-45 win at home over Wisconsin. Then it was a shocking 80-65 win at Illinois against an Illini team that had been rolling. Indiana is 9-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming by just 1-point to Northwestern. 

Michigan State snapped a two game skid with a 70-57 win at home over Rutgers in their last game, but have lost 2 of their last 3. Spartans are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games vs good defensive teams that are allowing 42% or worse from the field 15+ games into the season. Hoosiers are 24-10 ATS last 34 at home after 2 straight wins by 15+ points. Give me Indiana -4! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES +1.5: Love me Virginia Tech as a short road dog against Clemson. No better time to buy-low on the Hokies, who come into this game having lost 6 straight. They did lose by 10 in each of their last two games against Syracuse and Virginia, but the previous 4 losses were by 5 or fewer points. It's do or die for Virginia Tech at 1-6 in ACC play and this team has a lot of the same feels of the team from last year that started slow and caught fire. 

I also think you got to look at the health situation for these two teams. Hokies just got healthier with the return of Hunter Cattoor, while Clemson could be down starting point guard Chase Hunter (questionable) and shooting guard Alex Hemenway (out). I also just don't think the Tigers are as good as their 15-4 record would lead you to believe. Lot of things have went their way early on that I don't see being sustained. Give me the Hokies +1.5! 

9* NCAAB Underdog ATS ANNIHILATOR

PLAY TCU Horned Frogs +7.5: This to me is just too many points to pass up with TCU, as this just feels like some unwarranted inflation on Kansas because they are playing at home. There's not the talent gap on the floor that this line would suggest. 

Both of these teams like to attack in transition, which would lead you to believe this game is going to be played in the open court. Most times that would favor KU, but Mike Miles Jr and this TCU team thrive in this type of game. I don't see a whole lot of separation on the scoreboard late in this one. I really think TCU has a legit shot here to pull off the upset. Give me the Horned Frogs +7.5! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Maryland Terrapins -2.5

I'll take my chances with the Terps as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Wolverines. It's been a rough go for Maryland of late. After starting 8-0 they have gone just 3-6 over their last 9 games and are just 2-4 in Big Ten play. 

The losses have not been pretty of late. Each of their last 4 defeats have come by at least 14 points. One of those an embarrassing 46-81 loss at Michigan. One thing you have to note with Maryland's poor play of late, is the schedule. During this 3-6 stretch, only 1 of those 6 losses came at home and that was to a very good UCLA team. 

Michigan is not even close to being on the same level as the Bruins. Wolverines come in off a big win at home over Northwestern, but are just 1-5 in their last 6 games away from home with the only win coming against a bad Minnesota team. It's just not easy winning on the road in the Big Ten and we can all but guarantee we get a max effort here from Maryland. Give me the Terps -2.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Michigan State Spartans -2.5

I will gladly take my chances with the Spartans as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against Rutgers. It's just so hard to win on the road in Big Ten play and while Rutgers has a win at Purdue, they are just 2-3 in true road games with the other win by just 3-points at Northwestern. Simply put, I think Rutgers is getting way too much respect on the road. 

It would be one thing if Michigan State came into this game on some long winning streak and might not give this game their full attention off a tough loss to Purdue. I don't think that will be an issue. Spartans will be extremely motivated to snap a 2-game losing streak. 

I just don't see a bad Rutgers offense playing on the road, scoring enough to have a legit shot to win this game late. Give me Michigan State -2.5! 

10* NCAAB SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Missouri Tigers -1.5

I love Missouri as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against Arkansas. The hype around this Tigers team has taken a significant hit the last couple weeks. After securing impressive double-digit wins in back-to-back games against Illinois and Kentucky, Missouri has lost 3 of their last 4 with the only win being a mere 3-point victory at home vs Vanderbilt. They also weren't exactly competitive in the last two on the road vs Texas A&M (64-82) and Florida (64-73). 

Tigers have had a full 3 days off since the loss to the Gators and I got to think they are chomping at the bit to play this game. Missouri is 10-0 on their home floor and have one of the better home court advantages not just in the SEC but the country. I think it's disrespectful that they are basically a pick'em at home in this game. 

A big reason for that is this Arkansas team has been in the spotlight early on this season. Razorbacks went into their SEC opener 11-1 and ranked No. 9 in the country. One thing to note about their fast start, they didn't secure a single win over a Top 25 team (based on KenPom's current rankings). Their best win a 78-74 OT win over San Diego St. on a neutral site. Arkansas also didn't play a single true road game before conference play. So far they have played 3 road games in the SEC and lost all 3, the last two coming by 13 at Vandy and by 13 at Auburn. Give me Missouri -1.5! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Texas A&M Aggies -3.5

Easy play for me on the Aggies as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against Florida. Texas A&M is playing some of their best basketball of the season coming into this game. Aggies have won 6 straight. A winning streak that stems back to an ugly 62-67 home loss to Wofford in late December. 

It seems like that poor showing has lit a fire under this team. Texas A&M has started out 4-0 in SEC play. They got it started with a 66-63 win at Florida. They then crushed LSU 69-56 and Missouri 82-64 at home, before going on the road an annihilating South Carolina 94-53. 

Some of the value here stems from the Gators coming in on their own 3-game win streak. Florida was very impressive last week, beating LSU 67-56 on the road and Missouri 73-64 at home. No question this Florida team is better than their 10-7 record would lead you to believe. 

With that said, they are getting way too much respect on the road in this one. Texas A&M has a strong homecourt edge, especially when the fans have a team they believe in. The only home loss this season is that shocking defeat to Wofford. 

I also look at the first meeting between these two teams. Aggies had a double-digit lead in the 2nd half of that game, shot just 2 for 16 from behind the 3-point line, dominated the offensive boards and forced 20 turnovers. Gators were lucky to only lose by 3. I think it will be tough for Florida to keep this within single-digits. Give me Texas A&M -3.5! 

8* NCAAB Sharp Money PLAY OF THE DAY: UConn -4.5

I'll take my chances with UConn laying just 4.5 on the road against Seton Hall. This has all the making of a get right game for the Huskies, who have lost 4 of 5 after their perfect 14-0 start to the season. The first 3 losses were to good teams (Xavier, Providence and Marquette) on the road. The most recent was an ugly 74-85 loss at home to St. John's. 

Dan Hurley should have his guys 100% locked in for this showdown with the Pirates. Seton Hall comes in having won 3 straight, but it's came against the 3 worst teams in the Big East in Butler, DePaul and Georgetown. Pirates were 1-4 in conference play before the win streak. 

For me this really comes down to the fact that I don't think the Pirates can score enough to keep this game close. Seton Hall is 229th in the country in effective FG% and are 303rd in TO%. UConn is 11th in defensive efficiency, 12th in defensive effective FG% and 56th in TO%. Huskies make you earn it on defense. They are elite at defending the 3-point shot. They do foul a lot and give up a bunch of free throws. Seton Hall does a good job at drawing fouls, but shoot just 67.1% from the line. 

Seton Hall's defense isn't bad, but they are up against a very good UConn offense that ranks 14th in the country in offensive efficiency and 42nd in effective FG%. They are also 25th in Off. Reb.%. Pirates are 231st in the rate in which they give up offensive rebounds. I expect a comfortable win for UConn in this one. Give me the Huskies -4.5! 

8* NCAAB Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Texas Tech Red Raiders -2

I'll take my chances with Texas Tech laying a mere 2-points at home against Baylor. This line isn't going to make a ton of sense. The Bears come into this game off back-to-back wins are ranked No. 21 in the country. Red Raiders have went from a Top 25 team to a team firmly on the bubble in early January, as they come in having lost 5 straight to open up Big 12 play. 

Losing streaks like this can happen in a conference like the Big 12, even for good teams. The schedule wasn't exactly kind to them during this stretch. Of the 5 games, 3 were on the road and one of the home games was against Kansas. They lost the other home game vs Oklahoma in OT. They also lost by just 3-points at home to the Jayhawks and last time out they lost by just 2 at home to Texas. 

We should be able to bank on an extremely motivated Texas Tech team taking the floor on Tuesday. You also have to factor in one of the best homecourt edges in the country (KenPom has the No. 1 in home court advantage). 

I also look at Baylor and just think they are down a notch from what they have been in previous years. Bears are just 2-3 in Big 12 play and their wins are against W Virginia and Oklahoma State. We saw Baylor lose by 15 in a true road game at Iowa State. They also lost by 26 at Marquette in non-conference play. Give me Texas Tech -2! 

10* NCAAB Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Iowa State Cyclones -2

I love the Cyclones as a mere 2-point home favorite against Texas on Tuesday. This isn't just another game on the schedule for Iowa State. The Cyclones have had this one circled for a while. Not just cause they hate Texas, but that hatred got a lot stronger when the Longhorns landed stud ISU transfer point guard Tyrese Hunter. 

Cyclones have been a big surprise so far this season. Not many expected them to be this good, but Saturday's mere 2-point loss at Kansas was further proof that this team is for real. ISU's only other losses are to UConn and a road game at in-state rival Iowa. Cyclones are a perfect 9-0 at home and have dominated at home in Big 12 play, beating Baylor 77-62 and Texas Tech 84-50. 

Texas is a very talented team and gotten off to a 15-2 record with a 4-1 mark in Big 12 play, but the loss of head coach Chris Beard is a big one. Longhorns have also been very fortunate in close games in Big 12 play. They could just as easily be 1-4 in league play, as they have a 1-point win at Oklahoma, 4-point win at home vs TCU and a 2-point win at home vs Texas Tech. I just don't think Iowa State is getting near enough respect. Give me the Cyclones -2! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Michigan State +4

I'll take my chances with the Spartans as 4-point home dog against the Boilermakers in Monday's Big Ten play. Michigan State comes into this one off a 9-point loss at Illinois on Friday. It wasn't as bad a showing as the final score would indicate. If anything the Spartans gave that game away, as they led 50-41 with just under 14 minutes to play. Prior to that loss Michigan State had won 7 straight overall and 4 in a row in Big 10 play.

Purdue is a great team and most just assume they are in a class of their own in the Big Ten hierarchy. I just don't think people realize how tough it is to win on the road in this conference. Purdue played just 3 true road games this season. They are 3-0 in those games, but they only won by 10 at Florida State, needed OT to win at Nebraska and most recently snuck out a 2-point win at Ohio State. I like the Spartans to win this game outright but I'll gladly take the points as insurance. Give me Michigan State +4! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Iowa Hawkeyes -5

I'll take my chances with the Hawkeyes as a 5-point home favorite against Maryland on the college hardwood Sunday. After starting 0-3 in Big Ten play, Iowa has responded with 3 straight wins to pull even at 3-3. Most recently pulling off an improbable 93-84 OT win at home over Michigan in a game that they trailed 70-77 with 2 minutes to play. 

Iowa continues to be without starting forward Patrick McCaffrey, but his loss is not as big a deal as some make it out to be. It's really opened the door for sophomore Payton Sandfort to take on a bigger role. In the 3 games McCaffrey has missed, Sandfort is averaging 19.7 ppg and if you go back over the last 5 games that Sandfort has played at least 22 minutes, he's averaging 20.2 ppg. 

Iowa is also a different team at home than they are on the road. Hawkeyes are 8-2 at home this year with both losses coming in games where their best player, Kris Murray, wasn't on the floor. Maryland is just 1-3 in true road games with the only win coming against an awful Louisville team back in late November. In their last two road games they lost by 14 at Rutgers and by 35 at Michigan. Give me Iowa -5! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Kansas Jayhawks -7

I'll take my chances with Kansas as a 7-point home favorite against Iowa State. I think most would look at this game and be drawn to back Iowa State and grab the points. Cyclones are 13-2, have won 6 straight, are 4-0 in Big 12 Play and fresh off a 34-point (84-50) beatdown of Texas Tech at home on Tuesday. 

Thing with Iowa State is they rely so much defensively on creating turnovers. I don't think they are going to disrupt the offensive flow of this Jayhawks team. Kansas is one of the best in the country at moving the ball, as they rank 20th in assists/FG made. If you can break the pressure of ISU, there defense tends to give up a lot of wide open 3's. Some of that is them being okay with letting teams shoot from deep. They are 355th on defense in opponents 3PT FG attempts per FG attempt. 

I don't think that's going to work on the road vs this Kansas team. Jayhawks are 23rd in the country in 3PT% shooting. If Kansas shoots to their ability, I don't see the Cyclones being able to keep pace offensively. Give me Kansas -7! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Providence Friars +7

I'll take my chances with the Friars catching 7-points on the road against Creighton Saturday. Providence is being way undervalued in this one. Friars come into this game having won 9 straight. They have wins over both Marquette and UConn during this run. 

Creighton is going in the opposite direction. Bluejays have lost their last two games and are just 3-8 since starting the season 6-0. So while Creighton is a tough team to beat on the road, I just feel that's being baked into this number way too much. 

I think it's going to take everything the Bluejays have just to win this game outright. It's not a good matchup for them. They are a team that likes to shoot a lot of 3's. Friars don't let teams get going from the outside. They rank 28th in opponents % of field goal attempts coming from behind the 3-point line. Providence also makes teams work for a good shot. They are 27th in opponents assists/FG made. Give me the Friars +7! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Nebraska Cornhuskers +15.5

I'll take my chances with Nebraska catching 15.5-points on the road against No. 3 ranked Purdue. The Cornhuskers aren't exactly a team that I want to back a lot on the road in Big Ten play, but this is just way too many points. Some of that value with Nebraska stems from their last game, which they got destroyed 76-50 at home by Illinois. They have also lost by 18 at Michigan State and by 16 at Indiana in their two true road games in conference play. 

I just think it's going to be hard for Purdue to get excited about playing this game, as they have to feel like they just need to show up to win this game. Nebraska isn't just coming into this game thinking they can keep it close. They took the Boilermakers to OT in a 62-65 loss at home back on Dec. 10th. With that said, I think Purdue would have to play pretty bad for Nebraska to win, but we saw the upset happen in a similar spot last night with Minnesota going on the road and beating Ohio State 70-67 as a 14.5-point dog. Give me the Cornhuskers +15.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Iowa Hawkeyes -5.5

I'll gladly take my chances with Iowa as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Wolverines on Thursday. After losing 3 straight and falling to 0-3 in Big Ten play, the Hawkeyes have won two straight. First they knocked off Indiana at home before going on the road and securing an impressive 76-65 road win over Rutgers. 

Iowa is a very tough team to beat on their home floor. They are 7-2 at home this season with both losses coming during a stretch when their best player, Kris Murray, was sidelined with an injury. I don't see Michigan being able to keep pace offensively on the road against this Iowa team with Murray in the lineup. Michigan is coming off a 53-59 road loss to in-state rival Michigan State and were lucky to only lose by 6. They trailed by 14 with just over 8 minutes to play and had just 28 points over the first 30+ minutes of that game. Give me the Hawkeyes -5.5! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Oklahoma State Cowboys +5.5

I'll take the 5.5 points with Oklahoma State as they head to Manhattan Tuesday night to face off against Kansas State. I just think this is the perfect time to sell-high on the Wildcats. K-State comes into this game 14-1 and on a 8-game winning streak. 

I just have to wonder how much gas they have left in the tank. Wildcats opened up Big Ten play on New Year's Eve with a 82-76 OT win at home against West Virginia. Two days later they played that crazy shootout in a 116-103 win at Texas. This past Saturday they played another OT game at home against Baylor, sneaking out a 97-95 win. 

Oklahoma State is 9-6 but have played the 24th toughest schedule to date. They are just 1-2 in Big 12 play with a 2-point loss at Kansas and a 10-point loss at home to Texas. Note that they were tied 44-44 with under 7 minutes to play against the Longhorns and were outscored from their on 12-2. The only other loss by more than 5-points was a true road game against a very good UConn team. Simply too much value here to pass up. Give me Oklahoma State +5.5! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Rutgers Scarlet Knights -5.5

I'll gladly take my chances with Rutgers laying just 5.5 at home against Iowa. The Hawkeyes aren't a bad team by any means, but they are definitely down from the caliber a team they have put on the floor the past few seasons.

I played on them at home against Indiana in their last game. I just don't trust them on the road, especially without Patrick McCaffrey. They need a guy like that's scoring against this Rutgers defense, especially away from home. Scarlet Knights are No. 3 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 5 in opponents effective FG%. 

Rutgers offense isn't great, but this is an Iowa defense that isn't very good and one that struggles to defend down low. Hawkeyes are 210th in the country in defending 2-pt attempts. I just don't think Iowa's offense will be good enough for them to keep this close. Give me Rutgers -5.5! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Iowa Hawkeyes -1

I'll take my chances with Iowa as a mere 1-point home favorite against the Hoosiers. Some might think the Hawkeyes shouldn't be favored in this game. Iowa has lost their last 3 and starter Patrick McCaffery is taking a personal leave of absence. I like this team to respond in a big way in this game. 

Indiana has injury concerns of their own. Trayce-Jackson Davis has missed the last two games and is listed as questionable. They are also without 3rd leading scorer Xavier Johnson (9.9 ppg), who also leads the teams in assists (4.9 apg). 

We saw the Hawkeyes annihilate a very good Iowa State team at home without their best player in Kris Murray. McCaffery was a solid contributor, but not a loss they can't overcome. They still got their 3 best scorers on the floor in Murray, Filip Rebraca and Tony Perkins. This team as a whole just shoots the ball better at home. They are shooting 44.7% from the field and 31.8% from the 3-point line on the season. Those spike to 48.9% and 36.2% at home. Give me Iowa -1! 

8* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Missouri Tigers +7.5

I'll take my chances with Missouri as a 7.5-point road dog against Arkansas. The Tigers just continue to get disrespected by the books. Missouri is 12-1 and come into this game off 3 straight Top 50 wins, beating UCF, Illinois and most recently Kentucky. They annihilated the Fighting Illini 93-71 on a neutral floor and crushed Kentucky 89-75 at home. I get playing on the road is tough, but this line is suggesting that Arkansas is the far superior team. 

I'm just not buying it. Yes the Razorbacks are 11-2 and ranked No. 13 in the country, but their only two Top 50 wins are against San Diego State (in OT) and Oklahoma. I not only think the Tigers cover here, but I give them a legit shot to win this game outright. Give me Missouri +7.5! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Oklahoma Sooners -3

I'll take my chances with Oklahoma as a slim 3-point home favorite against Iowa State on Wednesday. We played on and won with the Cyclones in Saturday's 77-62 win over Baylor as a 2-point home dog. ISU is just one of those teams that I think is a great team to back at home and fade on the road. A lot of teams fit this bills in the Big 12 and Big 10. The only true road game the Cyclones have played this season was at in-state rival Iowa and they lost that game 56-75 with the Hawkeyes not having their best player in Kris Murray. 

Now they have to go on the road against a good and hungry Oklahoma team that is coming off a 1-point loss at home to highly ranked Texas. This is a team that has been playing well. They are 9-3 over their last 12 games with the other two losses coming by 4-points at Villanova and by 10 on a neutral court against a very good Arkansas team. Give me the Sooners -3! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money Vegas Insider: Ole Miss Rebels +12.5

I'll take my chances with Ole Miss as a 12.5-point road dog against No. 7 Alabama. I just think this is a few too many points for the Crimson Tide to be laying in this spot. Crimson Tide are off a double-digit road win against Mississippi State to open up SEC play, improving to 11-2. I think this team might be feeling themselves a little too much and will have a hard time not looking ahead to Saturday's huge showdown against Kentucky. 

It makes it that much easier to not give the Rebels enough respect when they come in having lost their last two and are just 2-5 in their last 7 games. They do have a bad loss at home to North Alabama during this stretch, but the other 4 losses are against teams ranked 32nd or better at KenPom and all of those losses came by 11 or fewer points. 

For as good as Alabama has been, their only win in their last 9 games by more than 13 points was a 20-point win at home over Jackson State. They 13-point win was against South Dakota State. I expect the Crimson Tide to win this game, I just think they would need to play their very best to win here by more than the number. Give me Ole Miss +12.5! 

9* NCAAB Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Oklahoma State Cowboys -2.5

I'll take my chances with Oklahoma State laying 2.5-points at home against West Virginia on Monday. Don't be fooled by the records or rankings. Anytime you have an unranked team favored over a ranked team, I tend to look that way. 

The Cowboys may be just 8-5 on the season, but 4 of the 5 losses have come by 5 or fewer points, including a mere 2-point loss at Kansas on Saturday. The only other loss was by 10 in a true road game against a very good UConn team. 

West Virginia is 10-3, but all 10 wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 45. They lost by 12-points on a neutral site to Purdue and by 10 on the road at Xavier. They are also coming off a OT loss at K-State on Saturday. Having just 1-day of rest, off an OT game and both games being on the road in Big 12 play is a lot to ask the Mountaineers to overcome in this spot. Give me Oklahoma State -2.5!