MLB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (OVER 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 8.5 in Wednesday's interleague matchup between the Yankees and Pirates. These two teams should have no problem getting to at least 9 runs. New York could easily eclipse this number on their own, but they should get some help from Pittsburgh. 

Pirates have scored 5 or more runs in 4 of their last 6 games. Yankees' Luis Severino has a 4.32 ERA in 6 road starts and a 5.29 ERA over his last 3 outings. New York's loaded lineup will be facing Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller. In 13 starts this season, Keller has a disappointing 5.34 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. Play the OVER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Friday's MLB Free Pick: Rays/Blue Jays UNDER 9 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Friday's early AL East showdown between the Rays and Blue Jays. This feels like it's at least a full run too high. Tampa Bay has a resurgent Corey Kluber on the mound. Kluber has a 3.45 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 14 starts. He's got a 2.08 ERA and 0.866 WHIP in his last 3 outings, 2.14 ERA in 8 day starts and a 2.64 ERA in 6 division starts. 

Toronto will turn to an inconsistent Jose Berrios, who is 5-4 with a 5.86 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 15 starts. That inconsistency has really been a matter of pitching at home or on the road. Berrios is 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 6 home starts. Give me the UNDER 9! 

Confidence Rating: 5 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Red Sox and Blue Jays. We took a bad beat on the UNDER 10 in yesterday's game between these two, as Toronto scored 2 in the bottom of the 9th to win 6-5. 

That's not going to deter me from backing the UNDER again, as we got an even better starting pitching matchup this time around. Boston will send out a very underrated Nick Pivetta, who has a 3.25 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 15 starts. Pivetta also comes in hot with a 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

Blue Jays will counter with Alek Manoah, who is 9-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.958 WHIP in 14 starts. Manoah is 5-1 with a 2.15 ERA in 7 home starts and has a 1.50 ERA and 0.899 WHIP in 3 career starts vs the Red Sox. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

AL East Over/Under TOTAL OF THE WEEK (Under 10)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 10 in Tuesday's AL East showdown between the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Boston will have Michael Wacha on the mound. Wacha is 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 12 starts. Ross Stripling will start for Toronto. Stripling is 3-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 0.936 WHIP in 9 starts. Stripling also has a 1.72 ERA and 0.893 WHIP over his last 3 outings. 

These two starters faced off in an earlier matchup back in April. Both pitched extremely well. Wacha held the Blue Jays to just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings. Stripling allowed 1 run on 5 hits in 5 innings. Give me the UNDER 10! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Saturday's matchup between the Mariners and Angels. Really good starting pitching matchup in this one, as Seattle sends out Logan Gilbert and LA counters with Patrick Sandoval. 

Gilbert is one of the better starters that you don't hear a lot about. Guy is 7-3 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in 14 starts. Same goes for Sandoval, who has a 2.70 ERA and 1.317 WHIP in 11 starts. These two also have a strong track record against their division rival. Gilbert has a 3.74 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 4 starts vs the Angeles and Sandoval has a 3.30 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in 5 starts vs the Mariners. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

National League TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9)

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Wednesday's matchup between the Braves and Giants. These two had an offensive explosion on Tuesday, as Atlanta squeaked out a 12-10 win. I believe it's created some value with today's total, as we got a pretty good starting pitching matchup. 

The Giants will have Carlos Rodon on the mound. Rodon had that great start to 2022, but then had a stretch of some not so great outings. He seems to have righted the ship. Rodon has a 1.00 ERA over his last 3 starts and has not allowed a run in his last 2 outings. 

Charlie Morton will get the ball for Atlanta. Morton's numbers aren't great, as he owns a 5.08 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in 13 starts. However, he too has shown some life of late. Morton just threw 7 scoreless innings in his last start and has racked up an impressive 29 K's in 18 innings over his last 3 outings. Give me the UNDER 9! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (Over 9)

I'll take my chances with the OVER 9 in Tuesday's AL Central matchup between the Twins and Guardians. These two teams should have no problem combining for at least 10 runs. Cleveland will send out Aaron Civale, who has an ugly 7.84 ERA in 7 starts and a 12.00 ERA and 2.133 WHIP in 4 road outings (OVER is 4-0). 

The Twins will turn to Joe Ryan. While Ryan comes in with an impressive 2.81 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 9 starts, he struggled in his first start back after missing close to 3 weeks. Ryan gave up 4 runs on 5 hits (2 HR) in just 4 2/3 innings at Seattle. 

The other big factor in the OVER is Mother Nature. It's expected to be in the mid 80's with wind blowing out to center at close to 20 mph. Give me the OVER 9! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Wednesday's matchup between the Twins and Mariners. It's only expected to be in the high 50's in Seattle when this game goes off. Seattle has now played 5 games on their long homestand and 4 of the 5 so far have seen 7 or fewer runs scored. 

All signs point to another lower scoring game today, as we got two pretty good starters on the mound with Minnesota's Sonny Gray and Seattle's Marco Gonzales. Gray has a 2.41 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 7 starts overall. He's been even better than that with 1.42 ERA and 0.684 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Gonzales has a 3.63 ERA in 12 starts and 3.38 ERA over his last 3 outings. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

American League TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8) 

I love the UNDER 8 in Saturday's matchup between the White Sox and Rangers. We got Martin Perez on the mound for Texas. He's one of the more underrated starters in the league. Perez has a 1.56 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in 11 starts. He's been nearly unhittable on the road, posting a 0.31 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in 4 road outings. 

Chicago will turn to Lucas Giolito. He's not been quite as good as what people expected to this point. He's got a 3.54 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in 9 starts. Key here is he is a different guy at home. Giolito has 2.37 ERA and 1.263 WHIP over 3 home starts. He's also got a 2.38 ERA over 2 career starts vs the Rangers. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

National League Total PLAY OF THE WEEK (UNDER 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's series opener between the Mets and Padres. Really good starting pitching matchup in this one, as San Diego sends out Yu Darvish and New York turns to Taijuan Walker. 

Darvish has had his ups and downs in 2022, which is why he's got a 4.03 ERA in 10 starts. However, most of the damage has come on the road. Darvish is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.683 WHIP in 4 home starts. All 4 starts have finished UNDER the total. 

Walker has been rock solid regardless of where he starts. He's got a 2.88 ERA in 8 starts overall and a 2.80 ERA in 5 road starts. He's also got a 2.04 ERA over his last 3 starts, as he's allowed just 4 ER in his last 17 2/3 innings. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Under 9) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Monday's matchup between the Red Sox and Angels. Michael Wacha will be on the mound for Boston. He's got a 2.43 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in 8 starts. The UNDER cashing in 6 of those 8 outings. Wacha will be facing a Angels' lineup that is in quite a funk. LA has scored 2 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 games. 

Noah Syndergaard was just torched for 5 runs in 2 1/3 innings at New York, but that wasn't all that surprising. It's been night and day for Syndergaard in terms of his performance at home and on the road. Syndergaard is 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.863 WHIP over 4 home starts. Give me the UNDER 9! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Saturday's matchup between the Padres and Brewers. Two underrated starters take the mound in this one.

Mackenzie Gore of the Padres has been sensational in his first 7 big league starts (all this year). He's 3-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.077 WHIP with 43 Ks in 39 innings of work. 

Milwaukee's Aaron Ashby has a 2.48 ERA over 5 starts this season and he's done that with 4 of his 5 starts coming on the road. He's also really had just one bad outing at Atlanta a few starts back. He gave up 6 in 4 innings. He's allowed a mere 2 ER in his 4 other starts combined. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Friday's series opener between the Diamondbacks and Pirates. I like the pitching matchup we have in this one. Arizona's Merrill Kelly has an ugly 10.50 ERA and 2.167 WHIP in his last 3 starts, but almost all the damage came in one start on the road against the Dodgers, where he gave up 8 runs in 2 innings.

He's pitched better in his last two starts and now faces a very mediocre Pirates offense that figures to be dealing with a bit of jet lag and a possible letdown after playing 6 straight in California and off a 3-game sweep of the Dodgers in LA. 

Pittsburgh will counter with the red-hot J.T. Brubaker, who has a 2.08 ERA over his last 3 starts, giving up a mere 4 ER over his last 17 1/3 innings of work. Brubaker's only career start vs Arizona came last August and he held the Dbacks scoreless over 5 innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 8.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Monday's matchup between the Diamondbacks and Braves. This to me is a very good starting pitching matchup. 

Arizona will have their best starter on the mound in Zac Gallen. He's got a strong 2.22 ERA and a sensational 0.828 WHIP over 8 starts. His lone start against Atlanta came last season and he held the Braves to just 1 hit over 7 scoreless innings. 

The big value with the total comes from Atlanta sending out Spencer Strider for his first big league start. Those that don't know, Strider is one of the Braves top young arms. He's been outstanding out of the pen this year, posting a 2.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He's also racked up a staggering 37 K's in 24 1/3 innings. 

He's probably not going to go deep into this game, but that's not a big concern. Braves' relievers this year have posted a combined 3.41 ERA and 1.205 WHIP. For whatever reason those guys out of the pen have been at their best on the road with a 1.95 ERA and 1.098 WHIP. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Saturday's cross-town matchup between the Cubs and White Sox. Love the pitching matchup in this one. Cubs will give the ball to Keegan Thompson, while the White Sox turn to veteran Johnny Cueto. 

Thompson has made 2 starts and pitched well, giving up just 2 ER in 9 innings of work. Cueto on the other hand hasn't allowed a run in his first 2 starts of 2022. He's thrown 6 scoreless innings in both starts, including his last start at New York against a loaded Yankees lineup. Look for both teams to struggle to score in this one. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's AL West matchup between the Angels and Rangers. This is a sneaky good pitching matchup. Texas' will send out Glenn Otto, who has a 2.81 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 3 road starts. Last time out, he gave up just 2 runs in 6 innings at Houston. 

Reid Detmers will get the start for Los Angeles. He's coming off a subpar outing at Texas, but that was to be expected in his first start following his no hitter against the Rays were he threw 108 pitches (88 was his previous high). Detmers has had a full 7 days off since his last start and owns a 1.96 ERA and 0.565 WHIP over 4 home starts this season. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Sunday's series finale between the Cubs and Diamondbacks. These two have put up some big offensive numbers the last two days, but yesterday's 7-6 final was extremely misleading. The two teams had combined for just 4 runs going into the 7th inning. Arizona put up a 3 spot in the 8th and then the two scored a combined 5 runs in the 10th. 

Great bounce back spot here for Dbacks starter Merrill Kelly after he was torched for 8 runs in 2 innings of his last start against the Dodgers. That's going to happen against that LA offense to the best starters. Kelly was in the Cy Young talks before that outing. I really like him to pitch well here. 

Cubs will turn to Wade Miley. He's only made 2 starts, but has been rock solid. Last time out he allowed just 1 hit over 7 scoreless innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Late Night Total No-Brainer (Under 7.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances on the UNDER 7.5 in Friday's late night NL West showdown between the Giants and Padres. These two scored a combined 2 runs in the series opener yesterday and that's now 3 straight games for San Diego that have seen 3 or fewer runs scored. Hard to not expect more of the same with Sean Manaea on the mound for the Padres and Jake Junis going for the Giants. Manaea has a 2.70 ERA and 0.862 WHIP in 4 road starts. Junis hasn't had his best stuff in either of his first 2 starts and still has allowed just 4 runs in 10 2/3 innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total No-Brainer (Braves/Brewers UNDER 8) 

*Analysis Coming* 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's matchups between the Twins and Astros. Houston will have Luis Garcia on the mound, while Minnesota gives the rock to Josh Winder. These are not starters the general public sees as elite, but they are off to really good starts in 2022 and that's where I feel the value comes from. 

Garcia has made 5 starts and has posted a 3.45 ERA with a sensational 0.872 WHIP. He's really been good on the road, posting a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two starts. Winder's only made 2 starts, but he's been nearly perfect, giving up 0 ER on just 5 hits and 1 BB with 15 K's in 12 innings. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Diamondbacks and Marlins. I just don't see a lot of runs being scored with the two guys who are starting this game. 

Miami's Jesus Luzardo has really been impressive early on. He had one sub-par outing against the Cardinals. The rest have been great. In 4 of his 5 starts he's given up 2 or fewer runs. He's also making a lot of guys swing and miss. He's got 35 K's in 26 1/3 innings. 

Madison Bumgarner is no longer overpowering hitters, but almost feels like the lack of strikeouts have him way undervalued. He's sitting there with a 1.50 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 6 starts. Having pitched just 1 inning (was ejected from his last start) since 4/29, he should be in prime form tonight. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5)

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's matchup between Colorado and Arizona. I think a lot of people think the Rockies are this strong offensive team because of all the runs they score at home, which in turn creates value when they are on the road. Colorado is only scoring 3.1 runs/game away from home. Arizona can't score at home. Dbacks are averaging just 2.9 runs/game at home in 2022. 

We also got two really good and very underrated starters going in Chad Kuhl and Merrill Kelly. Kuhl has a 1.90 ERA and 0.845 WHIP in 4 starts. Kelly has a 1.27 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 5 starts. UNDER is 4-0 in Kuhl's 4 starts and 4-1 in Kelly's 5 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 10) 

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 10 in Tuesday's series opener between the Rockies and Nationals. Washington's offense hasn't been great overall so far in 2022, but they are coming off their best 3-game series at San Francisco. Nationals put up 25 runs on 35 hits against the Giants and did so with SF sending out a pretty good trio of starters in Wood, Webb and Cobb. 

Not only does that offense get the benefit of hitting at the best offensive park in baseball at Coors Field, but the Rockies German Marquez has a 5.57 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in 4 starts and a 7.71 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in his last 3 outings. 

Rockies just scored 24 runs, hitting double-digits twice, in their 3 game series at home against the Reds. They are hitting .287 with a .356 OBP as a team at home this year. Washington's Erik Fedde has a 6.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in 4 starts and that's come against the Marlins, Dbacks, Pirates and Mets. Give me the OVER 10! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB OVER/UNDER Total NO-BRAINER (Over 10.5) 

I will take my chances with the Rockies and Reds going OVER the total of 10.5 on Sunday. I've not played many overs this year, but this is one that I like quite a bit. You always feel a lot better about needing runs in games played at Coors Field. 

Even more so when you got a sub-par pitching matchup like we have in this one. Cincinnati is going with Reiver Sanmartin, who is 0-3 with a 16.04 ERA and 2.533 WHIP in 3 starts. He's given up at least 5 runs in each of his outings. 

Colorado will have Kyle Freeland on the mound. He's 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.684 WHIP in 4 starts. His only decent outing has came on the road. He's got a 7.71 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in his 3 home starts. Even a bad Reds offense should manage at least 5 runs in this one. Give me the OVER 10.5! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5) 

I will take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Saturday's AL matchup between the Rays and Twins. Just love the pitching matchup in his one and runs aren't easy to come by at Tampa Bay.

Rays will have Shane McClanahan on the mound. He's got a 2.45 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in 4 starts. Arguably his best outing coming in his last start, where he allowed just 2 runs in 7 innings at home against the Red Sox. 

Chris Archer will get the ball for the Twins. He still walks too many guys, but he's only given up 4 ER on 9 hits in 11 1/3 innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5) 

Love the value here with the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's game between the Cubs and Braves. Atlanta's offense has gone cold of late and will be up against one of Chicago's better starters in Drew Smyly. In 3 starts, Smyly has a 2.45 ERA and 1.022 WHIP. He's not allowed a run in 9 2/3 innings over 2 road starts. 

Cubs offense has failed to deliver more times than not and will be up against a red-hot Kyle Wright, who has a 1.06 ERA and 0.765 WHIP in his first 3 starts. What really stands out about Wright's strong start, is the 26 K's he racked up in just 17 innings of work. Hard time seeing the Cubs offense do much of anything in this one. Play the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 7.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Wednesday's game between the Angels and Guardians. After that crazy hot start to the season, Cleveland's offense has completely fallen off a cliff. They have scored a mere 7 runs on 17 hits in their last 4 games combined, scoring a whopping 3 runs in their last 3 games. Now they face one of the best pitchers in the game in Shohei Ohtani, who has a ridiculous 26 K's in 14 1/3 innings of work. 

Key here is the Guardians also have a pretty good starter going in Zach Plesac, who has a 1.53 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in his first 3 starts. Getting to 3 runs is going to be a challenge for both of these teams. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5)

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Friday's AL Central showdown between the Twins and White Sox. I just don't see either of these teams generating many scoring chances. 

Chicago will have Michael Kopech on the mound and he's one of the bright young starters in the game. He's been outstanding to start 2022, posting a 1.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in his first 2 starts. He's also facing a Twins offense that has scored just 4 runs in their last 3 games combined. 

Minnesota will counter with Bailey Ober, who has a respectable 3.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his first two start. Ober struggled some in his first outing against the Mariners, but bounced back and didn't give up an ER in 6 innings at Boston last time out. White Sox have scored 3 or fewer in 7 straight games and are hitting just .185 as a team vs left-handed starters this season. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8)

I think we are getting big time value with the UNDER at 8 in Wednesday's game between the Nationals and Diamondbacks. 

Arizona can't score. They have totaled just 1 run in their last 3 games and have scored 3 or fewer in 9 of their last 10 games. No reason to expect that to change in this one. Washington's Erick Fedde has allowed 2 runs in 5 innings in each of his first two starts. 

On the flip side of this I think Arizona's Merrill Kelly is one of the more underrated starters early on in 2022. Kelly has not allowed a run in two starts, striking out 13 in 9 1/3 innings. Those weren't some pushover opponents, as he's faced the Padres and Astros. Washington's offense isn't as bad as Arizona, but it's not very good. Nats are scoring just 2.5 runs/game at home. Play the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 9)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Wednesday's game between the White Sox and Mariners. Seattle has struggled to score. They are only averaging 2.4 runs/game and are hitting .183 (29th) as a team. Their highest output of the season is 4 runs. 

So while we haven't seen Dallas Keuchel yet, you got to like his chances of keeping this Mariners offense in check. I also don't see the White Sox offense going off in this game. Seattle will have their new ace on the mound in Robbie Ray. He didn't disappoint in his first start, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits in 7 innings of a 2-1 win at Minnesota. Give me the UNDER 9! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Diamondbacks and Astros. This just feels like too big a number given the matchup. 

Arizona's offense has struggled to get going and that's putting in nicely. The Dbacks as a team have a .130 batting average, by far the worst in the game. Hard to see them getting on track against Houston's Framber Valdez. He allowed just 2 hits with 6 K's in 6 2/3 scoreless innings in his first start. 

The key here is I think Houston is also going to struggle to put up runs. Arizona's Merrill Kelly was sharp in his first start of 2022, striking out 7 in 4 scoreless innings. Houston is probably going to have a top tier offense, but right now they rank in the bottom half in both avg and OBP. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Under 9.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 9.5 in Tuesday's interleague matchup between the Angels and Marlins. I think we have an under the radar pitching duel in this one with Miami's Jesus Luzardo and LA's Patrick Sandoval. 

Luzardo is a highly touted prospect that has been a bit of a disappointment. However, he's in his first season with the Marlins. There's been talks they have got him on track and it certainly appeared that way in spring training. Luzardo allowed just 1 ER in 11 2/3 innings of work, good for a 0.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. 

As for Sandoval, he's coming off a quietly good 2021 campaign, posting a 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 87 innings. Big plus for him here is he's facing a sub-par Marlins offense. Miami has scored 2 or fewer in 3 of 4 games. In the one game they eclipsed 2 with 5 in the opener against the Giants, they scored 3 of those runs in the Top of the 9th. Give me the UNDER 9.5! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 10) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 10 between the Braves and Reds Saturday. These two teams scored 9 runs on Thursday and then combined for 13 on Friday. Expect more of the same on Saturday, as the starting pitching is not nearly as strong with Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds) and Kyle Wright (Braves) on the mound. The wind will also be blowing out to left center at close to 15 mph, which figures to help push at least a couple balls over the fence. Play the OVER 10! 

50* (MLB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's AL matchup between the Twins and Mariners. You got the reigning AL Cy Young winner going for Toronto in Robbie Ray and one of my favorite breakout starters, Joe Ryan, on the mound for the Twins. 

On top of that, these are not going to be scoring conditions with winds at 15 mph and the Temp in the 40s. Runs are going to be hard to come by for both sides. Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* (MLB) Yankees/Red Sox AL WILD CARD Top Play (UNDER 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's AL Wild Card matchup between the Yankees and Red Sox. I think we are getting some value with the number here because of how poor the two starters performed down the stretch. 

New York's Gerrit Cole has a 7.65 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in his last 3 starts. It wasn't much better for Boston's Nathan Eovaldi in his last 3, as he posted a 6.58 ERA and 1.609 WHIP. 

I just don't think you can overreact to those numbers. Cole is a guy that has been outstanding in the playoffs since leaving the Pirates. He had a 2.95 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 3 playoff starts last year and a 1.72 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 5 starts with the Astros in 2019. 

We don't have the same long-term track record with Eovaldi. He's only made 2 postseason starts and both came back in 2018. The stage wasn't too big for him then, as he had  1.61 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 22 1/3 innings in those 2 outings. Eovaldi has a 3.39 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 19 home starts and 3.33 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 13 career starts vs the Yankees. New York also comes into this game having just scored a mere 5 runs at home in that massive 3-game series at home against the Rays. 

You also have to factor in this being the playoffs and managers not letting a guy go too deep in the game. Any signs of trouble and he's getting the guy out of there. 

Weather should also help keep this total low, as it's only going to be in the low 60s for this game with whatever wind there is blowing in from left field. Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* (MLB) - AL EAST Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 9) 

I think we easily see double-digit runs on the board in today's early matchup between the Blue Jays and Rays. This is just not a great pitching matchup. Toronto is going with an Opener in reliever Julian Merryweather, while Tampa Bay sends out Luis Patino. 

Merryweather might only go 1 inning here, as he just threw in relief on Monday and was also in action last Friday. You never know what you are going to get on a bullpen day. With that said, I'll take my chances the Rays find a way to put up 4+ runs in this one. 

Toronto should also score 4+ and I think we could more than that. Blue Jays have crushed right handed pitching and Patino comes in with a 6.92 ERA and 1.769 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's got a mere 4.96 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 14 starts overall. Give me the OVER 9! 

50* (MLB) AL East Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 9) 

I love the UNDER 9 in tonight's big AL East matchup between the Rays and Blue Jays. There was little to no offense in the series opener last night. Tampa Bay won the game 2-0 and the two teams combined for a mere 9 hits. Toronto had scored 8 or more with at least 11 hits on their own in each of their previous 4 games. 

It just speaks to how good this Rays pitching staff is. Everything sets up for a similar low-scoring game on Wednesday. Toronto will have Cy Young contender Robbie Ray on the mound. Ray has a 2.69 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 28 starts with 220 K's in 170 1/3 innings. He's also got a great 1.95 ERA in 9 day starts this season. 

Michael Wacha will get the nod for Tampa Bay. His overall numbers aren't great, but he's really been throwing it well of late. Wacha has a 2.35 ERA and 0.718 WHIP in his last 3 outings. He's just got to give us 5-6 and the Rays pen will do the rest. Give me the UNDER 9! 

50* (MLB) - National League TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's game between the Dodgers and Cardinals. This is a huge series for both teams. LA is trying to overtake SF in the NL West and St Louis is just 3.5-games back of the Padres for a Wild Card berth. 

Some might be hesitant to take the UNDER with how good the Dodgers are offensively and LA not having one of their top guys on the mound. That's where we find the value with this play, as I don't see either being a problem. 

The Cardinals will have Adam Wainwright on the mound, who is having a remarkable season at the age of 40 (turned 40 on Aug. 30th). He's 14-7 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 27 starts. It's not just his age that makes this improbable, he hasn't had a season with an ERA under 3 since 2015. He's certainly not showing any fatigue down the stretch, as he's got a 0.42 ERA and 0.609 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

The Dodgers will have Mitch White on the mound. He's made 3 starts and has a pretty poor 5.73 ERA and 1.545 WHIP. The key here is that this is a plus matchup for him against a Cardinals offense that fails to produce more times than not. St Louis has scored a mere 3 runs in the first 2 games of this series and have scored 3 or fewer in 6 of their last 9. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's AL West matchup between the Angels and Rangers. I look for both teams to have a tough time pushing runs across in this one. 

Not a lot explanation needed for why Texas will struggle to score with LA sending out Shohei Ohtani. The guy is 8-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 19 starts and is 5-0 with a 1.92 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 10 home starts. 

The value with the UNDER lies with Rangers' starter Glenn Otto, who Texas acquired in the trade that send Gallo to the Yankees. Otto was sensational in his first big league start last week against the Astros, holding Houston to just 2 hits with 7 K's over 5 scoreless innings. Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* (MLB) - AL East PLAY OF THE WEEK (UNDER 8) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Wednesday's AL East showdown between the Rays and Red Sox. I just think we are getting a great number with 8 given the starting pitching matchup. 

Boston will send out Chris Sale, who outside of not pitching deep in games, has been really good over his first 3 starts in 2021. Sale has a 2.35 ERA and 1.044 WHIP. He's also got a 2.48 xFIP, so there's nothing fluky about those numbers. 

Tampa Bay will counter with Drew Rasmussen. He too hasn't made many starts. This will be just the 6th start of the season for Rasmussen. However, he's got a strong 2.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in 5 starts. He's also made 4 of those 5 starts on the road (didn't give up a run in his lone home start). Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* (MLB) - Thursday Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's game between the Blue Jays and White Sox. We cashed this exact same bet last night with these two teams. I just don't see why we would expect anything but another lower scoring game. 

The first 3 games have all seen 7 or fewer runs. Toronto won 2-1 on Monday and 3-1 yesterday. Chicago won the second game 5-2. Tonight it's Carlos Rodon going for the White Sox and Hyun-Jin Ryu for the Blue Jays. 

Rodon is 9-5 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He does have a very mediocre 4.15 ERA in his last 3 starts, but was at his best in his last outing, tossing 5 scoreless innings, giving up just 2 hits and racking up 11 K's. 

Ryu is 12-6 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 24 starts. He's got an even more ugly 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. However, he too is coming off a great outing. Ryu just pitched 7 scoreless in his last start. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* (MLB) - Wednesday Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 8.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's big AL showdown between the Blue Jays and White Sox. Each of the first two games have been low scoring. Toronto won 2-1 on Monday and Chicago won 5-2 on Tuesday. 

All signs point to more struggles offensively with the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday. White Sox will have the red-hot Lucas Giolito on the mound, while the Blue Jays counter with one of their best starters in Robbie Ray. 

Giolito has had his fair share of clunkers this season, but overall it's been pretty good. He's got a 3.77 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 25 starts. He's got a 2.37 ERA and 0.737 WHIP with 24 K's in 19 innings over his last 3 starts. 

Ray is 9-4 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 24 starts. His ERA is even better at 2.64 in 12 home starts and he's got a sensational 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* (MLB) - Tuesday Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's interleague matchup that has the Cardinals hosting the Tigers. I think the total here should be 7.5 at the most and even then I would still be looking to back the UNDER. There's no debate on it at 8. 

This is a really good starting pitching matchup. St Louis will have Jack Flaherty on the mound and he's been incredible in his two starts since coming back from injury. He allowed just 2 hits over 6 scoreless innings at the Royals in his first start and then gave up just 2 runs (both solo HR) in 6 innings at home against the Brewers. He's now 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.742 WHIP in 5 home starts this season. 

Detroit counters with Casey Mize, who is a classic case of a guy that just gets overlooked because of how bad his team is. Mize is a very respectable 6-6 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 23 starts this season. Definitely helps the Cardinals aren't exactly swinging the bats well, as they have scored 4 or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games. Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* (MLB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (UNDER 9) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Wednesday's game between the Rangers and Mariners. Yesterday we played and won with Seattle on the money line. I wanted to fire back with the Mariners, but I don't want to bet against Texas' Mike Foltynewicz. I think with him on the mound, the value has shifted to the UNDER. 

Foltynewicz is just 2-11 with a 5.66 ERA over 23 starts. Not great. However, he's been really good of late. He has a 3.00 ERA and 0.944 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The most recent coming on the road against these same Mariners, where he held Seattle to just 3 runs over 7 innings. 

Mariners will have Marco Gonzales on the mound. He too has been lights out down the stretch. Gonzales has a 0.83 ERA and 0.600 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 9! 

50* (MLB) NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9.5) 

I love the UNDER 9.5 in Tuesday's NL West showdown between the Giants and Diamondbacks. We got an old school starting pitching matchup, as veterans Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner face off. 

One big difference is Bumgarner isn't on the mound for San Francisco. This will be just the second time he's faced off against his former team. You know he wants to pitch well. 

Bumgarner returned after the All-Star break after nearly a month away. He's been on top of his game, posting a 2.00 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 3 starts. Cueto has also made 3 starts since the All-Star break and he's got a 2.30 ERA and 0.30 WHIP. Give me the UNDER 9.5! 

50* (MLB) - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play (Under 8.5) 

I love the UNDER 8.5 in tonight's interleague showdown between the A's and Padres. While it's going to be extremely hot at several ballparks today, it's going to be pretty mild at Petco Park when this game goes off. Temps are expected to be in the low 70s with the wind blowing in at close to 10 mph from left field. 

You also have to look at how these two offenses come into this game. The A's are averaging just 3.7 runs/game and hitting .222 as a team over their last 7. The Padres are even worse, averaging just 3.4 runs/game and hitting .193 as a team in their last 7. 

It's also not a bad pitching matchup. Oakland's James Kaprielian has a 2.65 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 12 starts. While San Diego's Chris Paddack has a not so great 4.77 ERA and 1.271 WHIP in 18 starts, his xFIP is a mere 3.78, which suggests he's been much better the the numbers show. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* (MLB) Sunday Night Baseball VEGAS INSIDER (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chance with the UNDER 7.5 in tonight's Sunday Night Baseball showdown between the White Sox and Brewers. Two really good starters take the mound in this one. Chicago will turn to Lance Lynn, while Brandon Woodruff goes for Milwaukee. 

Lynn is 9-3 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in 17 starts. He's coming into this game in great form too, as he has a 1.42 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Woodruff is 7-4 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.832 WHIP in 19 starts he's got a 2.14 ERA in 9 home starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5!

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 8.5) 

I really like the OVER 8.5 in Tuesday's NL Central showdown between the Cubs and Cardinals. These two combined for 11 runs in the series opener Monday, as St Louis won 8-3. I think we could see even more offense in Game 2. 

Chicago will send out Trevor Williams, who has a poor 5.36 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in 10 starts. Williams also owns a 8.05 ERA and 2.053 WHIP in 5 road starts. St Louis counters with Johan Oviedo. He's 0-5 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.635 WHIP in 11 starts. 

Williams has a 5.74 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Cardinals, while Oviedo has a 5.79 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 3 starts vs the Cubs. Give me the OVER 8.5! 

40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Saturday's AL showdown between the Astros and White Sox. I just don't see these two teams getting to 9 runs with the talent these two teams will have on the mound. 

Chicago will send out ace Lucas Giolito. While he hasn't been as dominant as he was in 2020, he's pitched much better than his 4.15 ERA and there's proof in that with his strong 1.173 WHIP. Giolito also owns a 3.47 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 9 home starts. 

Jake Odorizzi will get the ball for Houston. He's got a 2.84 ERA and 0.790 WHIP in 5 road starts and posted a sensational 1.59 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in his last 3 starts before the All-Star break. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7) 

This almost feels to obvious, but I just can't help myself. I'm taking the UNDER 7 in Thursday's game between the Padres and Nationals. Two of the best the MLB has to offer will be starting in this game. 

Washington will have Max Scherzer going. I think we expect so much out of Scherzer, that his 2.10 ERA and 0.848 WHIP doesn't get viewed like we would with some others He's been even better than that of late with a 1.59 ERA in his last 3 starts. 

Yu Darvish gets the ball for San Diego. He's 7-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in 17 starts. He's also got a 2.12 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in 11 home starts. Give me the UNDER 7! 

50* (MLB) - Red Sox/Angels MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 8.5) 

I love the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's showdown between the Red Sox and Angles. Two of the AL's top starters will be on the mound in this one. Boston will send out Nathan Eovaldi, who is 9-4 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 17 starts. He's been lights out of late, posting a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 starts. In just his last two outings, he's given up a mere 1 ER in 14 2/3 innings. 

LA will counter with Shohei Ohtani, who is 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 12 starts. Ohtani has been at his best at home this season, where he owns a sensational 1.73 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 7 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's action between the Astros and A's. These two AL West rivals figure to have a hard time scoring runs with the top tier talent they are sending out to the mound. 

Oakland will turn to Chris Bassitt, who is 9-2 with a 3.04 ERA in 17 starts. Bassitt is 5-0 with a 3.52 ERA in 9 road starts and has a 1.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Houston will send out Framber Valdez, who is 5-1 with a 2.18 ERA in 7 starts. Valdez has an even better 2.00 ERA in 3 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) 

I think we are getting some big time value with the UNDER at 8 in Saturday's game between the Phillies and the Padres. I like both starters quite a bit in this spot. 

Hard to not like Yu Darvish. Guy has a 2.44 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in 16 starts this season. In his last 2 starts he's given up just 2 ER in 12 innings with 18 K's to just 2 BB's. Darvish also owns a 1.42 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Phillies. 

Zach Eflin is where it gets tricky and where I think the value is. Eflin is just 2-6 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in 15 starts and has an ugly 5.62 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in his last 3 outings. All 3 of those were on the road. Eflin has been a different guy at home. He's got a 2.13 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 6 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8! 

40* (MLB) - Early Bird Total NO-BRAINER (Under 9.5) 

I'm going to take the UNDER 9.5 between the Blue Jays and Mariners. I know these two just combined for 16 runs yesterday and Toronto has been hitting the cover off the ball, but 9.5 is just too high a number for the talent these two teams are sending to the mound. 

Blue Jays will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has a respectable 3.41 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in 15 starts. Seattle will counter with Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 3.23 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in 15 starts overall, 2.70 ERA in 8 road starts and a 0.92 ERA over his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 9.5! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 9.5) 

I'm expecting a ton of offense in Sunday's game between the Indians and Twins, as I got these two teams easily surpassing the total of 9.5. Minnesota's offense is in a groove right now. Twins have scored 7 or more runs in 5 of their last 8 games, including 3 of their last 4. 

They will be up against Sam Hentges, who has an ugly 6.27 ERA and 1.821 WHIP in 5 starts. He did throw 5 scoreless innings in his last start, but that was against a bad Pirates offense, so don't read into that. I don't see him sticking around long in this one. 

J.A. Happ will start for Minnesota. He hasn't been much better with a 6.09 ERA and 1.492 WHIP in 13 starts. It's not been getting any better for Happ, who has a 7.90 ERA and 2.121 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Play the OVER 9.5! 

40* (MLB) - Situational Total ANNIHILATOR (Over 8.5) 

I know it's hard to take the OVER with how the Cardinals are struggling to score runs right now, but 8.5 is just too low a number for today's game. With the heat index approaching 100-degrees and the wind blowing out to left, the ball should be flying out of the park today. Not to mention that kind of heat can really wear down a pitcher. 

You also got to think that Pittsburgh's William Crowe is the guy to be facing for St Louis to snap out of their offensive funk. Crowe has made 9 starts for the Pirates and is 0-4 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.525 WHIP. If we can just get a little from the Cardinals in this one, we should easily get to 9 runs in this game. Give me the OVER 8.5! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's matchup between the Astros and White Sox. I just think 8 is a pretty big number with the talent these two teams are sending out on the mound. 

Chicago will have Carlos Rodon on the mound and he's been spectacular in 2021. Rodon is 6-2 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.840 WHIP in 11 starts. It hasn't mattered where he's pitched, as he's got a 1.80 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in 6 road starts. 

Houston counters with Luis Garcia, who is also having a great year. Garcia has a 2.98 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 11 starts. He's been even better at home with a 1.91 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in 5 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* (MLB) - Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5) 

I absolutely love the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's late night action that has the Rays visiting the Mariners. There's a lot to like with both starters going in this one.

Tampa Bay's Rich Hill has a strong 3.37 ERA in 13 stats, but has been even better than that of late with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. It's also worth pointing out that in Hill's last 4 road starts he's given up a whopping 1 run on 9 hits in 22 innings of work. 

Justin Dunn will counter for Seattle and he's quietly having a strong season. Dunn has a 3.91 ERA in 10 starts. He's also been lights out at home with a 2.95 ERA and 1.265 WHIP in 4 home starts. Not only is Dunn throwing well, but TB's hitters may be a bit off here with the travel from Chicago all the way out west to Seattle. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Wednesday's NL Central clash between the Brewers and Reds. These two offenses couldn't get anything going yesterday, as they headed to extra innings without a run on the board. Cincinnati wound up winning 2-1 in 10 innings with the two teams combing for just 6 hits. 

When you look at the starting pitching matchup for today's game, it's hard to see either offense getting back on track. The Reds' Tyler Mahle has been a beast when he's not having to start at home at hitter friendly Great American Ball Park. Mahle has a 1.44 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 8 road starts. Milwaukee counters with Freddy Peralta, who has been great from the get go. Peralta has a 2.32 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 12 starts with a 1.45 ERA and 0.563 WHIP in 6 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's series opener between the Rangers and Astros. I just feel like it's asking a lot for these two teams to put up 9 runs in a game that will feature two of the AL's better starters. 

Texas will give the rock to Kyle Gibson, who has a sensational 2.14 ERA and 1.005 WHIP in 12 starts. He's shown no signs of slowing down. In fact, he's got an even better 1.56 ERA in his last 3 starts. 

Houston will counter with Lance McCullers Jr. He's got a similarly strong 2.96 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in 9 starts. He too is trending right with a 1.89 ERA in his last 3 starts. 

These two also have a great track record against the opponent. Gibson has a 2.49 ERA in 11 career starts against the Astros, having allowed just 5 runs (35 innings) in his last 5 starts vs Houston. McCullers has a mere 3.88 ERA in 11 starts vs Texas, but has allowed just 3 runs in his last 4 outings vs them. He's also now allowed more than 3 ER in 10 of the 11 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 9.5) 

We have cashed the OVER in each of the first two games in this series between the Reds and Rockies. The two combined for 16 runs in the series opener on Friday and for 13 in yesterday's matchup. With another hot day at Great American Ball Park (heat index in the mid-upper 90s), I see no reason why they won't reach double-digits on Sunday. 

Reds could eclipse this total on their own. Cincinnati has done the heavy lifting in this series, scoring 11 and 10 runs in the first two games. Colorado has allowed 10 or more now in 3 straight and starter Antonio Senzatela comes in with an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.903 WHIP in 4 road starts  this season. 

Reds are starting Tony Santillan, who will be making his first ever big league start. While Santillan has pitched well in the minors, chances are he struggles in the tough pitching conditions today. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

50* (MLB) Saturday SHARP MONEY Top Play (OVER 9) 

We cashed the OVER 9 in Friday's series opener between these two teams as they combined for 16 in Cincinnati's 11-5 win. That's now two straight games Colorado has given up 11 runs and the 6th time in their last 8 games they have allowed 6 or more runs. 

I know we got two decent starters going in German Marquez and Wade Miley, but it's going to be absolute brutal pitching conditions today with the heat index pushing 100 degrees and little to no wind (4 mph). Add in how the ball already flies out of Great American Ball Park, and it just doesn't seem like much for these two teams to hit double-digits. Give me the OVER 9! 

40* (MLB) - Situational VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Over 9) 

I will take my chances with the OVER 9 in Friday's MLB matchup that has the Reds visiting the Rockies. With the way the ball flies out of Great American Ball Park, especially this time of year where it's 80+ degrees with some humidity, 10 runs really isn't a lot to ask for. 

You also got to like the pitching matchup for runs. Colorado's Kyle Freeland has a 6.23 ERA and 2.077 WHIP in 3 starts, giving up 19 hits and 8 walks in 13 innings of work. Reds' Tyler Mahle has a strong 3.18 ERA in 12 starts overall, but owns a 7.23 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 4 home outings. Give me the OVER 9! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 10.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 10.5 in Thursday's game between the Yankees and Twins. These two combined for 12 runs in Game 1 of this series and 15 in Game 2 yesterday. I see no reason not to expect another high scoring affair tonight. 

Yankees will be starting Michael King, who has given up 8 runs on 9 hits in 7 2/3 innings over 2 starts. I think it's also worth pointing out that King had a 7.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 9 appearances (4 starts) last year. 

Twins will counter with J.A. Happ, who has a 5.61 ERA and 1.325 WHIP in 10 starts with a 6.19 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in his last 3 outings. 

Also doesn't hurt that it's going to be in the mid 90's during this game with little to no wind. The heat could lead to both starters wearing down quick, as well as help the ball carry a little further. Give me the OVER 10.5! 

40* (MLB) Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Over 9) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 9 in Wednesday's late night action between the Angels/Royals. Both teams could be in store for a big day offensively in this one. KC is sending out Brad Keller, who has a 5.50 ERA and 1.707 WHIP in 12 starts. He's also facing a LA lineup that has scored 33 runs in their last 4 games. 

Angels' will counter with Griffin Canning, who probably should be demoted. Canning has a 5.71 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in 9 starts. He's only had one start all season where he's completed 6 innings. He's also got an 8.74 ERA and 1.853 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Play the OVER 9! 

50* (MLB) - Wednesday MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 8.5) 

I love the OVER 8.5 in Wednesday's game between the Twins/Yankees. Minnesota will have Randy Dobak on the mound. After not giving up a run in 6 innings in his first start at Cleveland, Dobak has allowed 9 runs on 17 hits and 3 walks in his last 2 starts. 

Yankees will have Gerrit Cole on the mound. While Cole is a big nam,e and has been pretty good so far in 2021, he just gave up 5 runs in 5 innings in his last start. I think his struggles could be part of him stopping using whatever illegal substance he was using. He's also facing a hot Twins lineup that has racked up 10+ hits in 4 of their last 5 games. Play the OVER 8.5! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 11) 

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 11 in Friday's series opener between NL West rivals Colorado and Arizona. The ball figures to be flying out of Coors Field tonight. Not only will temps by in the high 70s, but the wind will be blowing out to right center at close to 15 mph. 

We also got a subpar pitching matchup with Arizona sending out Seth Frankoff and the Rockies turning to German Marquez. Not to mention both offenses will be happy to see Coors Field. Dbacks just played a 4-game series at the Dodgers and the Rockies played 3 in a row at San Diego. Both of those parks heavily favor pitching. Play the OVER 11! 

40* (MLB) - Situational VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Under 8.5) 

I like the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's MLB matchup that has the Yankees hosting the White Sox. I just don't see a lot of runs being scored in this one. The ball doesn't figure to be carrying all that great at Yankee Stadium tonight and we got two quality starters going. 

Chicago will send out Carlos Rodon, who I think is poised for a big bounce back performance after not having near his best stuff in his last start against the Royals. Rodon gave up 4 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in 5 2/3 innings, yet he still comes into this game with a 1.47 ERA and 0.873 WHIP in 6 starts. 

New York will counter with Jordan Montgomery. While Montgomery has a 4.75 ERA in 8 starts, he has a very strong 1.152 WHIP in those 8 outings. He's also got a strong 3.98 FIP and 3.85 xFIP. His numbers have been more true at home where he has a 3.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in 3 starts. Play the UNDER 8.5! 

40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) 

I like the UNDER 8 in Thursday's NL East showdown between the Marlins and Phillies. I think this total should be 7.5 if not 7. Miami's Sandy Alcantara had a really bad start last time out, but that was on the road against the Dodgers. In his previous 4 starts he hadn't allowed more than 2 runs, throwing 6 or more innings in 3 of those 4 outings. Alcantara also owns a strong 2.82 ERA in 6 career starts against the Phillies. 

Vincent Velasquez will get the start for Philadelphia. He's off to a great start to the 2021 season. Velasquez owns a 2.84 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 5 starts with a 1.59 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last 3 outings. I just don't see either offense doing much in this one. Give me the UNDER 8! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5) 

I like the UNDER 7.5 in Wednesday's Royals/Brewers interleague showdown. KC won the opener 2-0 in an extremely low scoring affair on Tuesday. UNDER is now 6-1 in Royals last 7. Brewers managed just 3 hits in the loss yesterday, second time in their last 3 games they have held to a mere 3 hits. Brewers have also now scored 2 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 11 games. 

Milwaukee's struggles on offense are why I'm not worrying too much about the poor numbers for Royals starter Brad Keller. Note that while Keller has a 6.75 ERA in 8 starts, he's coming off two strong outings, as he's allowed just 5 runs with 13 K's in 11 innings over his last 2 starts. Brewers will have Corbin Burnes on the mound, who has been one of the NL's best early on. Burnes has a 1.57 ERA and 0.641 WHIP in 6 starts. Play the UNDER 7.5! 

40* (MLB) - Smart Money VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Under 7.5) 

I like the UNDER 7.5 in Tuesday's NL Central showdown between the Pirates and Cardinals. Really underrated starting pitching matchup here with St Louis' John Gant facing off against Pittsburgh's J.T. Brubaker. 

Gant has a 1.84 ERA in 7 starts with the UNDER cashing in 6 of those. Brubaker has a 2.58 ERA in 7 starts with 5 of those staying UNDER the mark. I just don't see these two getting to 8 runs tonight. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) 

I'll take a shot here with the UNDER 8 in Friday's series opener between the Braves and Brewers. I know this doesn't look like a top tier pitching matchup, but there's reason to be optimistic that both starters perform well here. 

Drew Smyly gets the ball for Atlanta. He's got an ugly 6.12 ERA and 1.480 WHIP, but he's coming off by far his best start of the season. Smyly didn't give up a ER in 6 innings at the Nationals. He really took advantage of a bad Washington offense. He gets a similarly poor offense in this one.

Milwaukee is bottom 10 in the league in runs scored They are averaging 2.0 runs/game and hitting .180 as a team in their last 7. They also are scoring just 2.8 runs/game this season vs left-handed starters. 

Brewers will send out Adrian Houser, who has a respectable 3.44 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in 7 starts. He too is off a strong outing, as he allowed just 2 ER on 5 hits with 10 Ks in 6 innings at Miami. That's two straight starts he's went 6 innings and allowed only 2 ER. He also could be catching a huge break here with Ronald Acuna Jr questionable after leaving yesterday's game with an ankle injury. GIve me the UNDER 8! 

50* (MLB) - Late Night *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 7.5) 

I love the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's late night action on the west coast that has Indians at the Mariners. Neither of these teams are great offensively. Cleveland has scored 3 or fewer in 3 of their last 4 and Seattle has scored 4 or fewer in 3 straight. 

You also got a great starting pitching matchup with Indians' Zach Plesac against Mariners' top prospect Logan Gilbert. Plesac has been outstanding of late with a 1.27 ERA and 0.7500 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts. Gilbert is a kid that has elite level stuff and I really like him to pitch well against this Indians lineup. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 7.5) 

I just think there's a ton of value with the OVER at 7.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Braves and Blue Jays. OVER is 12-5 in Atlanta home games this season with an average combined score of 10.7 runs/game. Toronto is averaging 5.9 runs/game over their last 7 and the Braves are scoring 5.1 runs/game at home and 5.6 runs/game in night games this season. 

Hyun-Jin Ryu has a 3.31 ERA in 6 starts, but a 4.15 ERA on the road and a 5.27 ERA in his last 3 outings. Max Fried has a 8.44 ERA and 2.062 WHIP in 4 starts. I could see both teams going over this number. Give me the OVER 7.5! 

50* (MLB) - NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8) 

I love the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's NL showdown between Miami and Arizona. Two of the hottest starters in the game will be facing off in this one. Marlins' Pablo Lopez has a 2.04 ERA in 7 starts and a 0.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Diamondbacks' Madison Bumgarner had a bit of a rough start to 2021, but has a 1.00 ERA and 0.389 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

These two starters squared off against each other in Miami last week (5/6) and the game finished with just 4 runs, as the two starters combined to pitch 11 innings, giving up just 1 ER on 5 hits. UNDER is also a strong 13-3 in Marlins last 16 road games after 2 straight games scoring 2 or fewer runs. Give me the UNDER 8! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5) 

I really like the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's AL matchup between Boston and Oakland. That's because I love the starting pitching matchup with the Red Sox sending out Nathan Eovaldi and the A's countering with Chris Bassitt. 

Eovaldi has a not so great 4.39 ERA with a solid 1.205 WHIP in 7 starts, but has really been unlucky with a .342 BABIP. That shows in his amazing 2.05 FIP and strong 3.26 xFIP. Bassitt has a 3.70 ERA and 1.210 WHIP in 7 starts with a 2.84 ERA in his last 3 outings. 

I know the wind is going to be blowing out slightly to right, but it's as big a concern with these two guys on the mound. Eovaldi has not allowed a HR this season and Bassitt has allowed just 3. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* (MLB) - Situational Total ANNIHILATOR (Under 7.5) 

I will gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Sunday's AL Central showdown between the Royals and White Sox. There just doesn't figure to be a lot of scoring opportunities in this game. 

Chicago will have ace Lucas Giolito on the mound. He's not been as dominant as expected early on, but has definitely pitched better than his numbers. The only thing that's killing him is the long ball. Something he doesn't figure to have to worry about much today with the wind blowing in from left field at close to 15 mph and temps expected to be in the mid 40's. 

Those conditions will also make life easier on KC starter Mike Minor. While Minor's numbers are also not great so far, he's owned Chicago with a 3.18 ERA in 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

40* (MLB) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 9) 

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 9 in Tuesday's MLB matchup between the White Sox and Reds. The OVER is a pretty easy play when Cincinnati is at home. OVER is 12-3 in Reds' home games this season with an average combined score of 13.4 runs/game. 

I know the two starters going, Dylan Cease and Jeff Hoffman have been decent early on, but both of these teams are scoring a lot of runs when these two are on the mound. OVER has cashed in 4 of Cease's 5 starts and is a perfect 5-0 in Hoffman's 5 starts. Neither of these teams have a good bullpen, so if either starter struggles we could see one of these teams eclipse the mark on their own. Give me the OVER 9! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO BRAINER (Under 8) 

I will take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's series opener between AL Central rivals Kansas City and Minnesota. Two really good starters will be on the mound for this one. Kansas City will send out Brady Singer and the Twins counter with Michael Pineda. 

Singer has a 2.95 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 4 starts. He's really been exceptional since giving up 5 runs in 3 1/3 in his first outing of the season. In his 3 starts since, he's posted a 1.00 ERA and 0.833 WHIP with 20 K's in 18 innings of work. 

Pineda has been equally impressive early on. He's got a 2.42 ERA and 0.896 WHIP in 4 starts. He too has had just one bad outing this year. Give me the UNDER 8! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) 

I will take the UNDER 8 in Thursday's early MLB matchup that has the A's and Rays finishing up their 4-game series in Tampa. There's been little to no offense in the first 3 games of this series. In fact, the two teams have combined to score a mere 12 runs in the series. 

I just don't think the total should be 8 with the way these two are swinging the bat. Big reason why there's value here is the Rays are sending out a relatively unknown starter in Shane McClanahan. His only MLB action came in the playoffs last year. While he didn't pitch great in the postseason, this is not only one of Tampa Bay's best prospects, it's one of the top pitching prospects in the game. He's got big time swing and miss stuff. 

On the flip side, the A's will be sending out Chris Bassitt, who has a strong 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts. Bassitt has allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings with 8 K's in each of his last two starts. Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* (MLB) - AL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9) 

I love the UNDER 9 in Thursday's AL West showdown between the Astros and Angels. I just don't see either offense going off with the two starters that will be taking the mound in this one. Los Angeles is sending out Alex Cobb, while Houston counters with Cristian Javier. 

Cobb comes in with a not so great 4.63 ERA in 2 starts, but the advanced stats say that's a big fluke, as he owns a 2.04 FIP and exceptional 1.67 xFIP. His 17 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings really speaks to how well he's thrown the ball. 

Javier hasn't had as many swing and misses, but does have a very respectable 11 K's in 8 2/3 innings. Javier owns a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP. With a 1.57 FIP, there's every reason to believe he's been as good as the numbers are showing. Give me the UNDER 9! 

40* (MLB) - Situational VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Over 8.5) 

I will take a shot with the OVER 8.5 in Wednesday's interleague showdown between the Braves and Yankees. The two starters going, Ian Anderson and Corey Kluber are both well respected starters, but both are struggling. Anderson has a 4.70 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in 3 starts. Kluber is even worse with a 6.10 ERA and 2.227 WHIP in 3 starts. 

While the two two teams did manage to combine to score 4 runs in Tuesday's series opener, I think we could see a big number on the board for both teams today. That's because there will be a 17+ mph jet stream blowing streak out to right field. Should be multiple HRs hit in this game. Give me the OVER 8.5! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) 

We cashed the UNDER 7.5 in Game 1 of this series on Monday and I see more of the same value with the UNDER 8 in Game 2. I know the numbers aren't great for today's two starters Rich Hill and Brad Keller, but it's just a matter of time before Hill gets on track and Keller is coming off a great start at home against the Angels, where he allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in 5 2/3 innings. 

The even bigger factor here is the weather. While we won't have 15 mph winds blowing straight in from left like we did yesterday, it won't be blowing out tonight and the temps are expected to start in the high 40s and end in the low 40s. It's just far from ideal conditions for scoring runs. Give me the UNDER 8! 

40* (MLB) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Under 7.5) 

I will roll the dice with the UNDER 7.5 in Monday's game between the Rays and Royals. Tampa Bay will send out Josh Fleming for his second start and he was impressive in his first outing, giving up just 1 run on 4 hits in 5 innings. Keep in mind Fleming pitched extremely well for the Rays in limited action last year. 

Danny Duffy will take the mound for the Royals and he's been outstanding to start 2021. Duffy has allowed just 1 run in 12 innings over his first 2 starts. Duffy has also owned Tampa Bay, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Rays. 

Lastly, the conditions aren't expected to be ideal for scoring. Temp's are expected to be in the low 50s high 40s with close to a 15 mph wind blowing straight in from left field. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

50* (MLB) Thursday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 8.5) 

I love the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's matchup between the Nationals and Diamondbacks. I know Arizona's Merrill Kelly has a 8.10 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in his first 2 starts, but his two starts have come on the road against the Padres and Rockies. It should be much easier here against a sub-par Nationals offense that has already been shutout 3 times in the early going. 

Same can be said for Washington starter Pat Corbin, who had a rough first start at the Dodgers. He really just had one bad inning, giving up 5 of his 6 runs in the 2nd inning. He should be much better and the Dbacks are only scoring 3.6 runs/game and hitting .209 as a team on the road this season. 

The last big factor here is the weather. Temps are expected to only be in the mid 50s with close to a 15 mph wind blowing straight in from left field. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* (MLB) - Monday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 8.5) 

I love the UNDER 8.5 in Monday's AL Central clash between the Indians and White Sox. Cleveland is the definition of an UNDER team. They struggle to score runs, but don't necessarily need to with their rotation and bullpen. UNDER has cashed in 6 of their 8 games this season. 

Triston McKenzie will be taking the mound for Cleveland and while he is making his first start, he pitched 3 2/3 innings out of the pen and was really good. He only gave up 1 run on 2 hits. In his brief career start last year, McKenzie has a 3.16 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with opponents hitting just .180 against him. 

White Sox will counter with Carlos Rodon, who tossed 5 scoreless innings with 9 K's in his first start at Seattle. Rodon has kind of had his way with Cleveland, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in 15 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) 

Colorado's offense has really struggled in their first two games away from Coors Field, as they have managed just 4 runs in their two games at San Francisco. I don't see them getting the offense going against Giants starter Anthony Desclafani, who was sharp in his first start at San Diego, limiting the Padres to just 1 run in 5 innings.

Rockies will counter with German Marquez. He's got a 3.60 ERA in two starts, both at home against the Dodgers and Dbacks. He should have no problem shutting down one of baseball's worst offenses. In his two starts against the Giants last year, he allowed just 3 run with 12/2 K/BB ratio in 13 1/3 innings. Give me the UNDER 8! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 9.5) 

I like the value with the UNDER 9.5 in Monday's AL East showdown between the Rays and Red Sox. The biggest factor here is the conditions, as it's expected to be around just 50 degrees at game-time with the wind blowing in from right field at close to 15 mph. 

Another factor is the Red Sox offense. Boston was only able to manage to score 5 runs total in their 3 games at home against the Orioles to start the season. Rays have a much better starting staff than Baltimore and I got high hopes for Tampa Bay starter Michael Wacha, who posted a 0.60 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over 15 innings in Spring Training. 

Little more concern with Nick Pivetta, but given the conditions, I think he can keep the Rays in check enough to keep us well below the mark. Give me the UNDER 9.5!

50* (MLB) Sunday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Over 11.5) 

Not a lot I can say that I haven't said the last 3 days, as we take the OVER for a fourth straight day in the Rockies/Dodgers series. We cashed the OVER in each of the first two and ended with a push in Game 3. 

Each of these teams have scored a minimum of 5 runs in each of the 3 games they have played and with temps expected in the low 80s for this one, the ball figures to be flying out of the park. The Dodgers are capable of eclipsing this total on their own and with Austin Gomber on the mound for the Rockies they just might. I know Julio Urias has been solid, but he's got a 6.25 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in 7 career starts against Colorado. Give me the OVER 11.5! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 11) 

We have played and cashed the OVER in each of the first two games of this series. We go again with the OVER on Saturday. These two went for 13 combined runs in the series opener Thursday and have 14 combined runs in the bottom of the 7th in Friday's game as I write up this analysis. The Rockies didn't even have a hit in the first 6 innings of that game. 

The play is every bit on the way the ball flies out of Coors Field and the ridiculous offense that the Dodgers have. They can hit this total on their own, but I don't think they will have to. Both starters that will go on Saturday performed poorly in Spring Training. 

The Rockies Jon Gray had a 9.90 ERA with a 1.80 WHIP, giving up 11 runs in 10 innings of work. Dodgers will counter with Walker Buehler, who had a 7.94 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and allowed 16 runs in 17 innings. Give me the OVER 11! 

40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 11.5) 

We cashed in the OVER 11 in Thursday's season opener between the Rockies and Dodgers, as the two combined for 13 in Colorado's 8-5 win. With the fire-power that LA has on offense and the game being played at one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league in Coors Field, chances are there are going to be a number of runs scored. 

The key here for me is I think the Rockies can keep pace and even outscore the Dodgers again on Friday. Trevor Bauer was a great pickup for LA, but he didn't have the best spring with a 4.24 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Coors just isn't the place to work out those kinks. 

Colorado will send out Antonio Senzatela, who has a 5.80 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 8 starts against the Dodgers. In those 8 starts, the fewest combined runs in a game has been 9. Give me the OVER 11.5! 

40* (MLB) - Opening Day TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 11) 

I won't be playing a lot of OVERs early in the season, but I do think the OVER 11 is worth a look in Thursday's Opening Day matchup between the Rockies and Dodgers. Even though the ball isn't going to jump off the bat like it will here soon, it's still going to carry well in the thin air of Coors Field. 

It's not crazy to think the Dodgers can eclipse this total on their own. LA's going to have one of the best offenses, if not the best, in baseball. I think it could be a short day of work for Rockies starter German Marquez, who had an ugly 5.68 ERA and 1.84 WHIP, while allowing opponents to hit .338 against him in 19 innings of Spring Training ball. 

The key here is I think the Rockies are going to do their part and put up some runs. Dodgers will be sending out Clayton Kershaw, who looked to be a bit out of form in Spring Training with a 10.22 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in 12 1/3 innings of work. Give me the OVER 11! 

30* (MLB) - Opening Day EARLY BIRD SHARP PLAY (Under 7.5) 

I will take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's Opening Day matchup between the Tigers and Indians. I know the wind is going to be blowing out to center at close to 15 mph, but the game time temp is expected to be a mere 31 degrees. The ball just isn't going to carry in these conditions. 

You als have what I think is going to be two of the worst offensive teams in the majors facing off against two really good starters. Detroit's Matt Boyd posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 18 1/3 innings in spring training. He's flashed some potential in the past and I think he's more than capable of keeping this Indians offense in check. 

Cleveland will counter with Shane Bieber, who also had an impressive spring with a 3.12 ERA. Bieber also had 24 K's in 17 1/3 innings of work. He's owned the Tigers in his career with a 2.13 ERA and 0.779 WHIP in 6 starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

50* RAYS/DODGERS WORLD SERIES *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 7.5) 

I would give the slight edge to the Dodgers in Game 1, but I just don't trust Kershaw enough to lay that kind of juice with LA. I instead will be taking the OVER 7.5. Could Kershaw pitch great? Sure. But based on what we have seen in the playoffs, it's not a toss up.

He was so good for 4 innings in his only start against the Braves and then things took a quick turn for the worse. When it was done he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits in 5 innings of a 2-10 loss. You also can't trust that Dodgers pen. 

Key here is I think we are going to get a big game from that LA offense. The Dodgers can explode at any moment. We saw that in their 11-run first against the Braves in Game 3. I like Glasnow, but he hasn't been great in the playoffs. He has a 5.40 ERA and 1.350 WHIP. Guy also has a problem with serving up HRs (has allowed 17 in 15 starts). Give me the OVER 7.5! 

50* RAYS/YANKEES MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 9) 

We have played and cashed easily on the OVER in each of the last two games in this series. All 3 games in this series have seen a combined 12 runs scored. The OVER is now a perfect 5-0 in Yankees postseason games. It's also 4-1 in the Rays postseason games. Tampa Bay has scored 15 runs in the last two games of this series and have scored 7 or more in 3 of their last 4 games overall. 

I see no reason not to expect another high scoring game today. Rays are starting an opener in Ryan Thompson, who has only made 1 start this season (24 relief appearances). He's got a mere 4.44 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over his 26.1 innings of work. 

New York will counter with Jordan Montgomery, who went just 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in 10 starts. Montgomery hasn't pitched in a game since Sept. 24, so there definitely could be some rust with him in this one. Montgomery made 1 start vs TB this season and didn't get out of the 1st innings, recording just 2 outs, while giving up 4 runs on 5 hits (2 HRs). Give me the OVER 9! 

50* RAYS/YANKEES MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 9) 

We cashed the OVER 8 in yesterday's 7-5 Rays win. Each of the first two games in the series have both ended with 12 total runs scored. No way I'm backing off the OVER in Game 3.

The Yankees had just 5 hits and had a postseason record 19 strikeouts. They still scored 5 runs. Thanks largely to Stanton, who hit two homers. Stanton has homered in every playoff game for New York. 

I'm expecting plenty more strikeouts for Yankees' hitters, but I also see them doing a lot more damage this time around against Charlie Morton. It was an off year for Morton. He started out slow, was hurt and really never hit his stride. He finished with a 4.74 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in 9 starts. He had a 4.40 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in his last 3. 

New York counters with Tanaka, who was rocked for 6 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in his start against the Indians in the first round of the playoffs. Tanaka also has had a down year with a 4.33 ERA in 11 starts. He's got a 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last 3. Give me the OVER 9! 

40* YANKEES/RAYS MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Over 8) 

The Yankees have played 3 playoff games and scored at least 9 runs in all 3 games. It's not like they have been exploiting bad starters. The have faced the soon to be AL Cy Young winner in Bieber, Carrasco and Snell. I know Rays starter Tyler Glasnow comes into having pitched well, I just don't know that it matters with the way the Yankees are swinging the bat. 

On top of that, this is a game the Rays could go off in. New York is sending out 21-year-old rookie Deivi Garcia, who has just 6 career starts to his name. While the future looks bright for Garcia, he posted a very mediocre 4.15 FIP and 4.65 xFIP. He also wasn't great in his last two starts, giving up 10 runs on 15 hits in 9 2/3 innings of work. Give me the OVER 8! 

40* REDS/BRAVES MLB (EARLY) MASSACRE (Under 7.5) 

I don't see a lot of offense in this one. The Reds were one of the worst teams in MLB history to make the playoffs with a mere .211 team batting average. They only averaged 3.5 runs with a .204 average on the road. 

With a guy like Trevor Bauer on the mound, I just think there's decent value with the total north of 7. Bauer was one of the best pitchers in the game. He finished up with a 1.73 ERA and 0.795 WHIP in 11 starts. 

Atlanta will have a pretty good starter of their own going in Max Fried, as he posted a strong 2.25 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 11 starts. Not to mention the Braves have a great bullpen. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

40* CUBS/PIRATES MLB SHARP STAKE (Under 9) 

We cashed a free pick on the Cubs/Pirates UNDER 8.5 on Monday and see no reason not to take the UNDER again on Tuesday. You simply have two offenses that are not swinging the bats well. Pirates are scoring 2.4 runs/game and hitting .165 in their last 7 games. 

Cubs are a little better in their last 7 at 4.0 runs/game and .217 average, but that's far from impressive. Also, important to note that Pittsburgh is sending out lefty Steven Brault. Chicago is only scoring 3.0 runs/game and hitting .187 vs left-handed starters this season. Brault also owns a great 1.59 ERA and 0.838 WHIP in 5 home starts. Give me the UNDER 9! 

40* METS/PHILLIES MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Under 7.5) 

I just can't help myself with this one. There's a really high probability that we see this game finish UNDER the total of 7.5. Two of the NL's best will be on the mound in this one. Mets send out ace Jacob deGrom against former Met starter Zack Wheeler. 

Not a lot needs to be said about deGrom. The guy is in the mix for another Cy Young in 2020. He's 4-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.870 WHIP in 9 starts. He has not had a start this season where he's given up more than 2 earned runs and enters this one on a streak of 5 straight allowing 1 or less. 

Wheeler is 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 8 starts. He's in even better form than that right now, as he owns a 1.96 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's also been much better at home than on the road with a 1.97 ERA in 5 home starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5!