|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-02-18||Bills +4.5 v. Dolphins||Top||17-21||Win||100||83 h 53 m||Show|
20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills +4.5
I won on both the Bills and Dolphins last week. They were my two top play winners in an otherwise disappointing 2-3 Sunday. But I’m sticking with the Bills this week and fading the Dolphins. The Dolphins go from being 9-point underdogs to the Colts to now 4.5-point favorites against the Bills. That’s nearly a 14-point swing from week to week, and I think it’s too much.
I believe the Bills to be the better of these two teams. Miami has one of the worst home-field advantages in the NFL over the past several seasons because fans simply don’t show up. So they can’t be laying 4.5 points here. This line should be Miami -2.5 or even -3 at the most.
I trust the Bills more because of their defense. They actually rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense this season. They rank 3rd in the NFL in yards per play defense, only behind the Ravens and Bears. And the offense got a jolt last week with Josh Allen returning at quarterback to beat the Jaguars. When Allen or Matt Barkley have been under center, the Bills have been a great bet this season.
Injuries are another reason I think the Bills have a huge advantage. The Bills have stayed remarkably healthy this season as they only have four players currently on the injury report. One is backup QB Derek Anderson, and TE Charles Clay is questionable with a hamstring. So they basically just have two players out with season-ending injuries. Miami already has 11 players lost to season-ending injuries. Two of those are their best playmakers in Albert Wilson and Jakeeem Grant, and Danny Amendola is questionable.
Having Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback helps the Dolphins, but he is lacking weapons on the outside. And the Dolphins’ 24-27 loss to the Colts last week was misleading. They only managed 314 total yards and gave up 455 total yards, getting outgained by 141 yards by the Colts. Indianapolis simply kept the Dolphins in the game by committing three turnovers. And that was a home run spot for Miami coming off their bye week. The Bills also had a bye last week, so both teams are fresh.
Tannehill is really going to struggle without his top playmakers against a Buffalo defense that has allowed 126, 116 and 107 passing yards in its last three games, respectively. They are giving up just 116.3 passing yards per game over their past three games, and they’ve held six of their past seven opponents to 156 passing yards or fewer. That’s almost unheard of in today’s NFL and it just goes to show how elite this defense really is. They have held four of their last six opponents to 83 or fewer rushing yards as well.
Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games vs. poor offensive teams that average 4.75 or fewer yards per play. The Dolphins are 18-46-3 ATS in their last 67 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Miami. Bet the Bills Sunday.
|12-02-18||Broncos v. Bengals +5.5||24-10||Loss||-110||53 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Bengals +5.5
This is the ultimate ‘buy low, sell high’ situation here. We’ll buy low on the Bengals, who have lost three straight and five of their last six, meaning the betting public wants nothing to do with them. And we’ll sell high on the Broncos, who are coming off back-to-back upset victories over the Chargers and Steelers.
The Broncos were coming off their bye prior to that win over the Chargers, so it was a great spot for them. And only poor coaching by the Chargers allowed the Broncos to win that game. They erased a 19-7 deficit to win 23-22. And the Steelers win was even more misleading. The Broncos were outgained by 219 yards and gave up 527 total yards to the Steelers. But they won the turnover battle 4-0. It was a complete fluke.
The Bengals have been plagued by injuries, which is a big reason for their recent struggles. But they are expected to get star receiver AJ Green back from injury this week, and he makes a huge difference for this team. I know the Bengals will be without Andy Dalton this week, but Jeff Driskel really impressive me last week, and I think he’s good enough to beat the Broncos with Green at his disposal now.
The Bengals trailed the Browns 28-0 last week. They only ended up losing 20-35, and a lot of that had to do with Driskel. They seemed energized when he came into the game, and that should carry over this week. Driskel finished 17-of-29 passing for 155 yards with a touchdown in the comeback attempt, while also rushing for a score. I think this team continues to be energized by their backup QB, who is better than he gets credit for.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Denver) - after having won two of their last three games, a team that wins 40% to 49% of their games on the season playing a losing team are 68-27 (71.6%) ATS since 1983.
The Broncos are 4-11 ATS int heir last 15 road games. Denver is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game. The Bengals are 9-3 ATS int heir last 12 vs. AFC opponents. Cincinnati is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 December games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Bengals Sunday.
|12-02-18||Ravens v. Falcons -1.5||26-16||Loss||-110||53 h 32 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -1.5
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are getting way too much respect for back-to-back home wins against the Bengals and Raiders. These two teams have been two of the worst in the NFL over the past month-plus, so those wins are nothing to write home about.
Plus, they only beat the Bengals by a final of 24-21 as 6.5-point home favorites, so they failed to cover the spread. And they were extremely fortunate to cover against the Raiders last week as 13-point favorites, winning 34-17 thanks to two non-offensive touchdowns with one on special teams and one on defense.
The Ravens take a big step up in class this week against the Falcons. The Falcons are undervalued off three straight losses, which followed up three straight wins. But they had their chance to win each of the last three games, but they blew it with red zone struggles.
Atlanta’s 17-31 loss at New Orleans last week was one of the most misleading final scores of the week. I know because I had the Falcons +13.5 in that game and was extremely unlucky not to cash that ticket. The Flacons outgained the Saints and held them to just 312 total yards, but they committed four turnovers, including three fumbles inside New Orleans’ 20-yard line. Had they simply kicked one field goal on one of those three drives, they would have covered the 13.5-point spread.
Now Atlanta has the rest advantage in this one after playing last Thursday, while Baltimore had to play on Sunday. So the Falcons got to watch Baltimore and Lamar Jackson, and their defense will know how to stop them. Their offense will also find some holes, unlike Cincinnati or Oakland did the two previous weeks with two bad offenses. And the Falcons have a better defense than either of those two teams, especially since they are supposed to get MLB Deion Jones back from injury. He’ll be key in slowing down Jackson and company this week.
Baltimore is 0-6 ATS after outgaining its previous opponent by 150 or more total yards over the past three season. It is coming back to lose by 6.3 points per game on average in this spot. The Ravens are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win by 14-plus points. The value is on Atlanta as a short home favorite this week. Roll with the Falcons Sunday.
|12-01-18||Northwestern v. Ohio State -14||Top||24-45||Win||100||67 h 47 m||Show|
20* Northwestern/Ohio State Big Ten BAILOUT on Ohio State -14
Because Ohio State came out No. 6 in the playoff rankings this week, they know they need style points to get in. This really feels like a few years ago when they needed style points against Wisconsin. They were actually underdogs in that game and won 59-0. They got in over TCU because of it, and went on to win the national title.
Ohio State knows how to put the hammer down when it needs to. And the Buckeyes certainly put the hammer down last week by scoring 62 points against Michigan’s No. 1 ranked defense in the country. I don’t think I’ve seen a more impressive performance all season. And it just shows what the Buckeyes are capable of when they are locked in. They’ll be locked in Saturday night looking to impress the playoff committee again.
I’ve thought Northwestern was overrated most of the season. They’ve squeaked out a ton of close wins this season to win the Big Ten West division. And basically everyone else in their division fell apart around them to help them out.
This is a Northwestern team that is only outscoring opponents by 2 points per game this season. They are actually getting outgained by 27 yards per game in Big Ten play. Their offense ranks 126th out of 130 teams in yards per play (4.6). They are one-dimensional, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. It’s an offense that puts up just 23.7 points per game this season, and I just don’t believe Clayton Thorson is capable of matching the Buckeyes score for score.
I like the fact that this game is played indoors in a dome in Indianapolis. That’s going to favor Ohio State’s high-powered offense. The Buckeyes average 43.3 points and 544 yards per game this season. When I’m laying double-digit points, I need it to be with an elite offense that I know is going to hang a big number. Ohio State certainly fits the bill.
I don’t believe this game will ever be close with the exception of early on in the first quarter. But say Ohio State is up by 10 in the final minutes. They won’t simply kneel on it. They’ll go down and try to score for style points because they need to leapfrog Oklahoma or whoever else is in their way in the playoff standings. So we have that in our back pocket if we need it. I don’t think we’ll need it, though.
The Buckeyes are 7-2 ATS in their last nine neutral site games. Ohio State is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Northwestern. Urban Meyer is 13-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached. Take Ohio State Saturday.
|12-01-18||South Dakota State -3.5 v. Northern Iowa||82-50||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -3.5
The Northern Iowa Panthers are a tired team right now. They’ve stayed in hotels 16 of the past 21 nights and it’s clearly affecting their play. Now they’re in another hotel for this US Bank Stadium Classic in Minneapolis to face South Dakota State tonight.
This is a very good SDSU team that returned four starters from a squad that went 28-7 last year, including 13-1 in Summit League play. They got great news in the offseason when Mike Daum announced he was returning to SDSU after initially entering his name in the NBA Draft. He has won the Summit League Player of the Year each of the last two seasons, and Freshman Player of the Year before that. He averaged 23.9 PPG and 10.3 RPG last season.
Northern Iowa gets too much love for what it has done in year’s past, but the Panthers just haven’t been very good the past two seasons. Head coach Ben Jacobson is trying to implement a more up-tempo system in this rebuilding year, and it’s not going so well. The tough travel hasn’t helped as they will now be on the road for a 7th consecutive game.
Northern Iowa is 3-4 SU and just 1-5 ATS in lined games this season. Their only wins have come against Bemidji State, Eastern Kentucky by 5 and Old Dominion by 1. They lost to Pennsylvania by 7, UT-Arlington by 9, ODU by 7 and Utah State by 19. And South Dakota State is probably the best team they will have faced yet.
Northern Iowa is 1-10 ATS in December games over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 0-7 ATS off a loss by 15 points or more over the last three years. The Jack Rabbits are 15-2 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. Bet South Dakota State Saturday.
|12-01-18||Bucks v. Knicks +8.5||134-136||Win||100||5 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +8.5
The New York Knicks have been grossly underrated over the last few weeks. They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, which includes outright road upsets over Boston as 14.5-point dogs, Memphis as 8-point dogs, and a home upset of New Orleans as 7.5-point dogs.
I’ve been riding the Knicks for the majority of these games. Their only non-cover was against the 76ers last time out, but that was the second of a back-to-back and a tough spot. They have now had two days’ rest since playing the 76ers on Wednesday and should be fresh and ready to go at home tonight.
The Bucks are starting to be grossly overrated due to their hot start to the season. They are 15-6 on the season, but just 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games. They lost outright to the Suns as 13.5-point home favorites, and outright to the Hornets as 4.5-point road favorites. They only beat the Spurs by 6 as 10-point home favorites and the Bulls by 3 as 15-point home favorites. And now they are massive 8.5-point road favorites against the Knicks tonight, which is simply too much.
New York wants revenge from a 113-124 loss at Milwaukee as 11.5-point underdogs in their first meeting of the season on October 22nd. The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games. The underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
Plays against any team (Milwaukee) - off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite, in Saturday games are 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Knicks Saturday.
|12-01-18||Georgia +14 v. Alabama||28-35||Win||100||62 h 31 m||Show|
15* Georgia/Alabama SEC ANNIHILATOR on Georgia +14
The betting public is infatuated with Alabama right now. They are just betting the Crimson Tide blindly because they have been so good to them all season. It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Crimson Tide this week because bettors are clearly paying a tax to bet them at this point in the season. They should not be two touchdown favorites over Georgia, one of the top teams in the country.
The tax caught up to the Crimson Tide two weeks ago in their 50-17 win over The Citadel. That game was tied 10-10 at halftime believe it or not. And last week they only led Auburn 17-14 at halftime and did not deserve to cover the 25.5-point spread. But they outscored the Tigers 35-7 after intermission to get the cover. Georgia will offer a lot more resistance than any other team Alabama has played this season.
Georgia has had revenge in mind since a 26-23 (OT) loss to Alabama in the National Championship Game last year. They led that game 13-0 at halftime and feel like they let it slip away. I am 100% confident we’ll get the biggest effort of the season from Georgia in the SEC Championship Game this week, and that should be enough to stay within two touchdowns of the Crimson Tide, possibly pulling off the upset.
I think Georgia’s 16-36 loss at LSU was a blessing in disguise back in early October. They gave that game away by committing four turnovers. They have only committed five turnovers in five games since, and they’ve gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Their only non-cover came in a 39-point win as 41.5-point favorites over UMass. Big deal. They have won all five games by at least 17 points.
Alabama hasn’t had to face an offense as good as Georgia’s this season. The Bulldogs score 40.1 points per game an average 481 yards per game. Their ground game is elite once again as they rush for 260 yards per game and 6.3 per carry. And Jake Fromm is completing 69.1% of his passes with a 24-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.6 per attempt. He held his own against Alabama as a freshman last year and was the biggest reason they had a shot to win that game. Fromm won’t fold in the SEC Championship Game having that experience in his hip pocket.
Georgia is 9-1 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games over the past two seasons. The Bulldogs are 12-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. Georgia is 10-2 ATS vs. good rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last two years. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
Plays on neutral field underdogs (Georgia) - an excellent rushing team that averages 225 or more rushing yards per game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in four straight games coming in are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS since 1992. Roll with Georgia Saturday.
|12-01-18||Memphis +3.5 v. Central Florida||Top||41-56||Loss||-115||61 h 7 m||Show|
25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Memphis +3.5
I was on the Memphis Tigers last week in a dominant 52-31 win over Houston. They took advantage of Houston’s starting QB being out, and now they’ll take advantage of UCF’s starting QB being out this week as well. The wrong team is favored in this matchup, and I love everything about Memphis in this AAC Championship Game Saturday.
The streak ends here. UCF has won 24 consecutive games over the past two seasons, but all of that was with QB McKenzie Milton at quarterback. He has accounted for 80 total touchdowns over the past two seasons, more than any other player in college football. He is simply irreplaceable.
UCF’s backup is freshman Darriel Mack Jr. He has gotten some action this season in either mop up duty or like last week against USF in the second half after Milton went out. He has not been impressive at all. Mack Jr. is completing just 48.8% of his 43 attempts and averaging only 4.0 yards per attempt. He hasn’t thrown a single touchdown pass on those 43 attempts, either.
Mack Jr. is more of a running quarterback as he has rushed for 281 yards on 40 attempts. Well, that plays right into the hands of Memphis, who have the better defense in this matchup, especially against the run. The Tigers are only giving up 3.9 yards per carry on 40 attempts per game this year. That is the strength of their defense.
UCF has been good at stopping the pass, but terrible at stopping the run. The Knights give up 212 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry, including 262 rushing yards per game in their last four games coming in. The Tigers average 276 rushing yards per game and 6.4 per attempt. Don’t get me wrong, they’re still a great passing team at 254 yards per game and 8.6 per attempt behind Brady White, but their strength is their ground game.
And Memphis has one of the best running backs in the country and a future NFL star in Darrell Henderson. He has rushed for the second-most yards in the nation with 1,700 yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 8.6 per carry. He is a huge back who is tough to bring down, and he has tremendous explosiveness and quickness for a big guy. Henderson rushed for 199 yards against UCF in their first meeting.
Speaking of that first meeting, Memphis will be playing with triple-revenge from three losses to UCF over the past two seasons. They blew a 30-14 lead over UCF and lost 30-31 at home in their first meeting this season. They also lost during the regular season last year at UCF and again at UCF 55-62 in overtime in last year’s AAC Championship Game. To say they want revenge would be a massive understatement, and they don’t care that Milton is out, they just want to beat this UCF team so badly.
I don’t think UCF should be favored at all without Milton. And I just don’t see how the Knights can keep up on the scoreboard with this high-powered Memphis offense that averages 43.8 points and 530 yards per game this season. They hung 52 on Houston last week and amassed 610 total yards, including 410 rushing. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and are playing their best football of the season down the stretch when these games matter most.
Memphis is 7-0 ATS vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 200 or more rushing yards per game over the last two seasons. It is winning by 30.3 points per game on average in this spot. Bet Memphis Saturday.
|11-30-18||Oklahoma State v. Minnesota -2.5||76-83||Win||100||14 h 52 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma State/Minnesota BTN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -2.5
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They are coming off a disappointing, injury-plagued 15-17 season. And they are definitely flying under the radar in the early going. This is a Minnesota team that returned five starters from last year while also bringing in talented transfers and freshmen.
Oklahoma State loses four of its top five scorers from last year, including Jeffrey Carroll (15.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG) & Kendall Smith (13.1 PPG). They also lost five of their top seven scorers who combined to average 53 points per game. That’s going to be tough to replace with just two starters returning and their leading returning starter averaging 8.7 PPG.
Minnesota is happy to be back home after four straight road games, and they’ve done well to go 5-1 this season. They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two home games, beating Nebraska-Omaha by 28 as 14.5-point favorites and Utah by 9 as 8-point favorites.
Oklahoma State is 4-2 on the season. It is getting too much respect from its wins over LSU, Memphis, UTSA & College of Charleston. But they lost by 19 to Villanova on a neutral, and they suffered a big upset in their only true road game at Charlotte as 13-point favorites. If they can’t beat Charlotte on the road, they have no chance of this deep, experienced Minnesota squad.
Oklahoma State is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games as a road dog of 3 points or less or PK. Dating back further, the Cowboys are 24-45 ATS in their last 69 games as a road dog of 6 points or less or PK. Boynton is 2-9 ATS after having won four or five of his last six games as the coach of Oklahoma State. Roll with Minnesota Friday.
|11-30-18||Utah v. Washington -5||Top||3-10||Win||100||43 h 43 m||Show|
20* Utah/Washington Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on Washington -5
The Washington Huskies were one of the most overrated teams in the country all season. So despite the fact that they went 9-3 SU, they went just 3-9 ATS. They were consistently laying too many points week in and week out because many expected them to be a playoff contender coming into the season.
This is the role I like them in. The Huskies are only 5-point favorites here against the Utes. Two of their three covers this season came as a small favorite or underdog. They won 21-7 at Utah in their first meeting as 4-point favorites, and then last week put together their most complete performance of the season in a 28-15 win at Washington State as 3-point dogs.
The line in that first meeting with Utah is important. Washington was a 4-point favorite in that true road game, and now they are only a 5-point favorite on a neutral field in the rematch. When you adjust for Utah’s massive home-field advantage, Washington would have been around an 8-point favorite on a neutral back then. So we are getting value here.
And I think Utah has gotten worse since that game while Washington has gotten better. The Utes have lost starting QB Huntley and starting RB Moss, their two best players on offense. Washington State has gotten a healthy Myles Gaskins back at RB after missing a few games and TE Hunter Bryant who missed the first nine games of the season.
The Huskies outgained Washington State by 250 total yards last week. They rushed for 258 yards, including 170 and three touchdowns from Gaskins. And Bryant is one of the most talented tight ends in the country, so Jake Browning is glad to have him back. He caught three balls for 108 yards and a touchdown in the snow against the Cougars.
Meanwhile, Utah had to erase a 27-7 deficit in the second half last week to come back and beat BYU 35-27. The Utes did not deserve to win that game at all as they managed just 296 total yards and were outgained by 61 yards. But they used a lot of energy to erase that deficit, and they haven’t had a bye since mid-September. They are running on fumes right now.
Washington gets an extra days’ rest after playing Washington State last Friday, while Utah had to play a late-night game on Saturday. And the Huskies just had their bye on November 10th, so they are by far the fresher team. It explains their solid play to close out the season, and I think they have another big performance in them here Friday night as they claim the Pac-12 title in blowout fashion. Bet Washington Friday.
|11-30-18||Cavs v. Celtics -12||95-128||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -12
The Boston Celtics are a good ‘buy low’ candidate right now. They have gotten off to a disappointing 11-10 start this season, but they are starting to play up to their potential. They beat Atlanta by 18 on the road and New Orleans by 17 on the road in winning two of their last three coming in.
Now the Celtics are well-rested and ready to go having last played on Monday, coming in on three days’ rest. Meanwhile, they’ll be playing a Cleveland Cavaliers team that will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. So the Celtics should have a huge advantage in the rest department here.
And I haven’t even factored in that the Cavaliers are one of the worst teams in the NBA yet. Cleveland is 4-16 this season, including 1-9 on the road where they are losing by an average of double-digits per game. They are coming off a 17-point loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday night.
Boston is 12-1 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games coming in over the past two seasons. The Celtics are 15-3 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 19-43-2 ATS in their last 64 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Boston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games. Take the Celtics Friday.
|11-29-18||Clippers v. Kings UNDER 235.5||Top||133-121||Loss||-112||11 h 18 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 235.5
I cashed the Clippers/Suns UNDER 230 last night with ease in a game that saw only 214 combined points. And now I’m back on the UNDER in another Clippers game tonight, this time with a total even higher (235.5) and against the Sacramento Kings.
The Clippers won’t be looking to push the tempo playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here. And a big reason I was on the UNDER last night was because Avery Bradley is healthy now, and the Clippers have the best defensive backcourt in the NBA with Bradley and Patrick Beverly. They made life tough on Devin Booker last night, and they will make life tough on De’Aron Fox and the Kings guards tonight as well.
I think this number is inflated because the Kings have gone over the total in six straight, while the Clippers have gone over seven of their last nine. It’s an overreaction and one we’ll take advantage of here just as we did last night.
The Clippers and Kings have combined for 236 or fewer points in 86 straight meetings dating back to 1996. They have combined for 232 or fewer points in 84 of those 86 meetings. The UNDER is 16-5 in Kings last 21 home games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Kings last five games following a double-digit home loss.
Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 210 or higher (LA Clippers) - who give up 43.5% to 45.5% shooting on the season against a team that gives up 45.5% to 47.5% after five straight games where they held their opponent to 42% or less are 26-6 (81.2%) over the last five seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-29-18||Pacers v. Lakers -4.5||96-104||Win||100||11 h 17 m||Show|
15* Pacers/Lakers NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles -4.5
The Los Angeles Lakers should be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight. They are coming off back-to-back losses, including their worst loss of the season in an 85-117 setback at Denver. It was definitely Lebron James’ worst game of the season. James and company will be looking to make amends tonight.
The Pacers are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers off back-to-back road wins at Utah and Phoenix. And now they’ll be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days. Plus, they’ll be without their best player in Victor Oladipo (21.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 4.7 APG). I just don’t think they’ll even be competitive tonight against a motivated Lakers squad without Oladipo.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Lakers and Pacers. The home team is 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Lakers have won their last two home meetings with the Pacers outright as underdogs by 13 points each, and they didn’t have James or near the talent they have now in those two matchups.
The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their road games. Los Angeles is 7-2 ATS in its last nine Thursday games, while Indiana is 16-33-2 ATS in its last 51 Thursday games. The Lakers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Roll with the Lakers Thursday.
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +8||Top||10-13||Win||100||18 h 23 m||Show|
20* Saints/Cowboys NFC Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas +8
The New Orleans Saints have now covered in nine straight games. The betting public has made a fortune off this team and they’ll continue to back them every week until they lose. Oddsmakers haven’t been able to set their lines high enough. And there’s no question the value is on the Dallas Cowboys this week catching more than a touchdown at home.
I had the Falcons +13.5 against the Saints last week in a 14-point loss. It was clearly a right side loser as the Falcons were the better team in that game but found a way to lose by 14. They outgained the Saints by 54 yards and held them to 312 total yards, but lost the turnover battle 4-1. And the Falcons lost three fumbles inside New Orleans’ 20-yard line that took points off the board. It was a complete fluke.
I like the way the Cowboys have rallied the troops and are feeling good about themselves right now. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, which includes upset road wins over the Eagles and Falcons, and a 31-23 home win over the Redskins last week. They dominated the Redskins in that game.
This Dallas offense has taken off since Amari Cooper came over from Oakland. Cooper already has 22 receptions for 349 yards and three touchdowns in four games for the Cowboys. He has opened up things for Ezekiel Elliott, who has rushed for at least 121 yards in three straight games now. This offense has what it takes to move the chains and keep Drew Brees on the sidelines.
Of course, it also helps that the Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Dallas ranks 7th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 331.1 yards per game. The Cowboys are even better in the all-important scoring defense (19.4) category. Only the Ravens and Bears have been better in that department.
Sean Payton is 2-10 ATS in road games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games as the coach of the Saints. Dallas is 11-2 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more total yards per game over the last two seasons. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Cowboys Thursday.
|11-28-18||Suns v. Clippers UNDER 230||Top||99-115||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Clippers UNDER 230
The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA when both Avery Bradley and Patrick Beverly are on the floor. They make life hell on opposing guards, and they’ll do just that against Devin Booker of the Suns tonight.
The Suns have improved defensively this season, but their offense as stalled because nobody other than Booker can make plays consistently. The defensive improvement has come from the additions of Trevor Ariza and DeAndre Ayton. The Suns are combining with their opponents to average just 218.4 points per game this season. That’s well UNDER this 230-point mark.
I think the fact that the Clippers have gone over the total in seven of their last eight coming in has inflated this number. But they didn’t have Bradley for the majority of it, and having him back healthy will improve their defense greatly.
The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 210, 203 and 218 in the three UNDERS. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Los Angeles. Phoenix is 16-5 UNDER after allowing 105 or more points in five straight games over the last two seasons.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 or more (LA Clippers) - after a win by 6 points or less against an opponent that’s off a loss by 6 points or less are 52-22 (70.3%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-28-18||Portland State +12 v. Stanford||67-79||Push||0||10 h 3 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland State +12
Portland State has been grossly underrated the last few seasons in non-conference play. The Vikings are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. They are coming off a 20-win season and should be competitive in the Big Sky once again this year.
The roster now has the quickness that will fit second-year coach Barret Peery’s up-tempo, high-pressure style. The Vikings do lose three starters from last year’s team, but they return Big Sky Freshman of the Year Holland Woods, who averaged 10.5 PPG and led the league in assists last year. And Peery got a large influx of talent via transfers this offseason that will help with depth.
Stanford also returns just three starters and lost three of its top four scorers from last season, including its top two in Reid Travis (19.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and Dorian Pickens (15.1 PPG). It’s no wonder the Cardinal have struggled to a 3-3 start this season with its only wins coming against Seattle, UNC-Wilmington and Middle Tennessee. All three losses came by 16 points or more.
Stanford is 1-9 ATS after allowing 60 points or less last game over the past three seasons. Portland State is 11-2 ATS in non-conference games over the past two years. The Cardinal are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big Sky foes. The Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five vs. Pac-12 opponents. That includes their upset 87-78 win over Stanford as 6.5-point dogs last year on a neutral court. They’ll hang around in the rematch this season. Take Portland State Wednesday.
|11-28-18||Spurs +4.5 v. Wolves||89-128||Loss||-105||8 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on San Antonio Spurs +4.5
The Timberwolves are starting to get too much love from oddsmakers. They have won three straight, but those three victories came against the Nets, Bulls and Cavs, three of the worst teams in the entire NBA. They take a big step up in class here against the Spurs tonight.
Few teams have owned a franchise quite like the Spurs have owned the Timberwolves. San Antonio is 14-1 SU in its last 15 meetings with Minnesota. That’s why they should not even be underdogs in this game, let alone 4.5-point dogs, which could easily come into play tonight.
The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Minnesota. Roll with the Spurs Wednesday.
|11-28-18||Jazz -3.5 v. Nets||101-91||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5
The Jazz have to be highly motivated for a victory right now. They have lost four of their last five coming in. But they get their best player in Donovan Mitchell back from a rib injury, and he is worth more to the point spread for this team than almost any other player in the NBA.
The Nets suffered a big blow when they lost Caris LeVert, their best player, to a foot injury a few weeks ago. They have struggled to find their footing, going just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall. They should be catching more than just 3.5 points here against the Jazz.
Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents. Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Nets, and 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Brooklyn.
Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in non-conference games are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1996. Take the Jazz Wednesday.
|11-28-18||Wyoming v. Evansville -2.5||78-86||Win||100||7 h 3 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Evansville -2.5
Both Evansville and Wyoming are inexperienced teams who return one starter apiece. But I’ll gladly fade the Cowboys, who lose four of their top five scorers from last year, and are currently playing without one of their starters in Jordan Naugton due to a knee injury.
I like Evansville’s hiring of hometown legend Walter McCarty, a 10-year NBA veteran and former All-American at Kentucky. He was hired off Brad Stevens’ staff with the Celtics. He brings the program some hope, and the early returns haven’t been bad.
Evansville has gone 3-1 ATS in lined games this season. They blew out their two opponents at home, including their 22-point win over Texas Southern as 4-point favorites. Their three losses all came on the road to Illinois, Xavier and Ball State, but they covered the spread in two of those, including their 6-point loss at Xavier as 20.5-point dogs.
Wyoming has had a plethora of questionable results thus far. They lost to UC-Santa Barbara outright by 10 as 6-point home favorites and Niagara outright by 5 as 7.5-point home favorites. They also lost by 19 as 10-point dogs at Oregon State and by 12 as 8-point dogs to Boston College. They are just 1-5 ATS this season and their two wins have come against Grambling by 8 as 12.5-point favorites and by 2 over Richmond. I’m not quite sure why they are getting so much respect from oddsmakers tonight based on those results.
Evansville is 6-0 ATS in his last six home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 points. The Purple Aces are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Wyoming is 16-33-3 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Cowboys are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a win. Bet Evansville Wednesday.
|11-27-18||NC State v. Wisconsin -6||75-79||Loss||-108||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* NC State/Wisconsin ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Wisconsin -6
I love fading NC State in this situation. The Wolfpack have opened 6-0 and are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers because of it tonight. But they haven’t played anyone of any significance, and now they’ll be playing their first true road game of the season against a Wisconsin team I’m very high on.
For starters, NC State lost its two best players from last year in Allerik Freeman (16.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG) and Omer Yurtseven (13.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG). And NC State’s six wins have all come at home against the likes of Mount St. Mary’s, MD-East Shore, UNC-Asheville, Maine, St. Peters and Mercer. And they only beat Mercer by 4 as 19.5-point favorites last time out.
Wisconsin returned all five starters from last year and is a legit contender in the Big Ten. They also got some key guys back from injury and are fully healthy. They are off to a 5-1 start this year and they’ve been through the gauntlet. They beat Xavier in a true road game by 9, beat Stanford by 16 on a neutral and Oklahoma by 20 on a neutral. Their only loss came against nationally ranked Virginia by 7 as underdogs on a neutral. They are battle-tested and ready for this showdown with NC State to say the least.
NC State is 0-7 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons. The Wolfpack are 1-8 ATS in road games when playing against a team that wins better than 80% of their games on the season over the last three years. Wisconsin is 7-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins better than 80% of their games over the last three years. These three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Badgers.
NC State is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Badgers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. The Badgers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. ACC opponents. The Wolfpack are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten foes. Take Wisconsin Tuesday.
|11-27-18||Knicks +7.5 v. Pistons||Top||108-115||Win||100||6 h 6 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +7.5
The New York Knicks have been undervalued for four straight games now, and I’ve been on them for three of them. I’m on them again tonight catching 7.5 points to the Pistons. Oddsmakers and the betting public just keep failing to realize this team is actually pretty good, and much better than their 7-14 record would suggest.
Four games back, the Knicks only lost by 4 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Blazers. Then they went on the road and beat Boston by 8 outright as 14.5-point dogs. Then they upset the Pelicans by 5 as 7.5-point dogs. And last time out they went into Memphis and won outright by 5 as 8-point dogs. And here we are again with the Knicks catching another big number against Detroit tonight.
The Pistons come in overvalued here after going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Unlike New York, Detroit is actually getting respect from oddsmakers now. And these are expectations that I don’t think they can live up to tonight here against the Knicks as this one should go right down to the wire with New York possibly pulling off a 4th straight upset.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - off a road win, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games when playing a team with a winning record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on one days’ rest. Bet the Knicks Tuesday.
|11-26-18||Titans v. Texans -3.5||17-34||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
15* Titans/Texans AFC South No-Brainer on Houston -3.5
The Houston Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They have reeled off seven straight victories since their 0-3 start to the season. But they could have won any of those first three games as they were all one-score games. And they are finally winning their share of one-score games during this seven-game winning streak.
Now the Texans are as healthy as they’ve been all season. They get some key players back on defense this week and will be playing just their 2nd game in 22 days because they had a bye in Week 10. They should be primed for another big effort here on Monday Night Football to cement their place atop the AFC South standings.
The Texans will be out for revenge from a 17-20 road loss at Tennessee in their first meeting. Well, they dominated the Titans in that game and should have won. They outgained Tennessee 437 to 283 for the game, or by 154 total yards. The Titans got a 66-yard fake punt TD in that game that proved to be the difference.
Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Houston is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Tennessee with all six wins coming by 6 points or more and by an average of 19.7 points per game. So based on this series history, we are getting the Texans at a pretty cheap -3.5 price here tonight.
Tennessee is a fraudulent 5-5. The Titans are getting outgained by nearly 40 yards per game on the season. They are scoring just 17.8 points per game and rank 30th in total offense at 295.4 yards per game. The Texans are a legit 7-3, outgaining teams by 34 yards per game. They are scoring 23.9 points per game and rank 15th in total offense at 364.2 yards per game. And they have posted better defensive numbers than the Titans as well. The Texans rank 4th in yards per play (5.0) allowed, while the Titans are 10th in yards per play (5.5) allowed.
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. AFC opponents, while Tennessee is just 19-43-4 ATS in its last 66 vs. AFC foes. The Texans are 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Roll with the Texans Monday.
|11-26-18||Eastern Michigan v. TCU -12.5||Top||69-87||Win||100||7 h 21 m||Show|
20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -12.5
TCU dropped from the Top 25 with its 64-73 upset loss to Lipscomb last time out. The Horned Frogs are now 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS on the season. I think this is the time to ‘buy low’ on them knowing they’ll be primed for a big effort to bounce back from that upset loss. We’ll get TCU’s ‘A’ game tonight.
It’s easy to see why TCU opened the season in the Top 25. They returned five players who started at least 14 games last season, and five players who all averaged at least 7.9 points per game, including three that averaged in double figures. This is still a very good team, but one that hasn’t played up to its potential yet. And the Horned Frogs have had five days off since that loss to Lipscomb to get better in practice and prepare for Eastern Michigan.
Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan will be playing its 2nd game in 3 days after a 74-78 loss to Detroit as 10.5-point home favorites. The Eagles are just 4-3 this season and 1-4 ATS in their lined games. Their four wins have all come at home over Rochester (by 10), Drexel (by 4 as 13.5-point favorites), Goshen and Boston U. They were blown out in their two true road games at Duke (by 38 as 26-point dogs) and at Rutgers (by 27 as 7-point dogs). Those two efforts make be believe they aren’t capable of staying within 13 points of this motivated TCU squad.
EMU is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 road games vs. teams who average 16 or more assists per game. EMU is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The Horned Frogs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss. Bet TCU Monday.
|11-26-18||Rockets v. Wizards +2.5||131-135||Win||100||6 h 24 m||Show|
15* Rockets/Wizards NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Washington +2.5
The Washington Wizards are starting to play up to their potential now that the trade rumors started swirling. They realize they are playing for their jobs now, and it’s finally nice to see them play to their capability.
The Wizards are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall. They beat the Clippers 125-118 at home as 1-point favorites and the Pelicans 124-114 at home as 3.5-point favorites. Their only loss came on the road at Toronto during this stretch. And they should not be home dogs to the Rockets here.
Houston is coming off back-to-back upset road losses at Detroit (by 5) as 3.5-point favorites and at Cleveland (by 9) as 6.5-point favorites. They have some serious injury issues right now with Chris Paul (leg) questionable and Gerald Green (ankle) questionable, and they still haven’t gotten a replacement for Carmelo Anthony. They just aren’t playing well at all right now at 9-9 on the season, and they are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA.
The Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take the Wizards Monday.
|11-25-18||Miami-FL -5 v. Seton Hall||81-83||Loss||-103||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* Miami/Seton Hall ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami -5
Seton Hall is a team I had circled as one that I should fade all season when given the opportunity. That’s because they return just one starter this season and lose their three stars from last year in Khadeem Carrington, Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriquez, who combined for nearly 47 points per game last year.
That trio is irreplaceable. It’s clearly a rebuilding year for head coach Kevin Willard. That has been evident in two games for the Pirates this season. They lost 57-80 at Nebraska as 8-point underdogs, and lost outright as 6-point favorites in a 64-66 home loss to Saint Louis. I think the fact that they’ve won and covered their first two games of this Wooden Legacy Tournament has them overvalued, because wins over Grand Canyon and Hawaii are far from impressive.
Miami returned four players from last year that averaged at least 8.8 points per game each, and several other key reserves. It’s no surprise that the Hurricanes are off to a 5-0 start this season. And I think they should be bigger favorites tonight against this rebuilding Seton Hall squad.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Seton Hall) - a good team from last season that won 60% to 80% of their games playing a team that had a winning record, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Miami Sunday.
|11-25-18||Knicks +8.5 v. Grizzlies||103-98||Win||100||5 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +8.5
The New York Knicks are getting zero respect from oddsmakers and I’ll continue to back them until they do. They are catching 8.5 points here against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, which is simply too much.
The Knicks have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They only lost by 4 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Blazers, won outright by 8 as 14.5-point road dogs to the Celtics, and won outright by 5 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Pelicans. This team is better than the betting public realizes, and they should give the Grizzlies a run for their money tonight.
No question the Grizzlies have been undervalued up to this point. They have gone 12-6 SU & 12-6 ATS on the season. However, now they are being asked to lay a big number here, when usually they are in the role of the underdog. In fact, Memphis hasn’t been more than a 7.5-point favorite in any game this season. So this bar has been set too high here as 8.5-point favorites over the Knicks.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - off a win, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games when playing a team with a winning record are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Knicks Sunday.
|11-25-18||Dolphins +10 v. Colts||Top||24-27||Win||100||90 h 5 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Dolphins +10
The Colts are getting way too much love this week. That’s because they have gone 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall coming in. Now the betting public is on them, and it’s time to ‘sell high’ here Sunday. They are coming off a 38-10 beat down of the Titans last week. I had the Colts in that game, and was fortunate Marcus Mariota got hurt. The rest was history. But I’ll gladly fade them this week as 10-point favorites over the Dolphins.
Indianapolis has only been favored by more than 3.5 points once this season, and that was as 7-point favorites against the Bills. And now they have to play a motivated, rested Dolphins team that is coming off their bye week at 5-5 and looking to make a playoff push. And the Dolphins get Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback this week, which is a big upgrade over Brock Osweiler.
The Dolphins opened 3-0 this season before back-to-back road losses to the Patriots and Bengals. Tannehill led them to that 3-2 start, and the Dolphins led the Bengals big before he got hurt. Speaking of injuries, the Colts suffered a big blow when they lost center Ryan Kelly to a knee injury against the Titans last week. Center is one of the most underrated positions in the NFL. Kelly is their best linemen, and the Colts have a couple other key injuries along the offensive line that will make life more difficult on Andrew Luck this week.
Plays on any team (Miami) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams that allow 23-27 PPG in the 2nd half of the season, after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1983. The Colts should be closer to 3-point favorites than 10-point favorites this week. We’ll take the value on Miami. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-25-18||Seahawks v. Panthers -3||30-27||Loss||-119||87 h 41 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -3
I was on the Panthers last week as my free play, and it was probably a week early. They lost 19-20 to the Lions after going for a 2-point conversion to win the game in the closing seconds. To my credit, the Panthers outgained the Lions by 78 yards and probably should have won that game. But their road struggles continued and they lost.
But now the Panthers return home highly motivated for a victory after back-to-back road losses. This is a place of comfort for them as the Panthers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring the opposition by 9.8 points per game in the process. They should get back on track at home here with a win and cover as only 3-point favorites over the Seahawks.
This is a bad matchup for Seattle. The Seahawks lead the league in rushing, but they are just 28th in passing offense, averaging only 196.8 passing yards per game. The weakness of Carolina is their pass D, but the Seahawks won’t be able to exploit it. Carolina ranks 7th in the NFL against the run, giving up just 98.5 rushing yards per game. They have the speed at linebacker with Luke Keuchly and company to stuff the read-option that Seattle likes to run.
Seattle is only 2-3 in true road games this season. One of those came 20-17 at Arizona, a terrible team and arguably the worst team in the NFL this season. The other was at Detroit the week they were coming off a bye, so they were primed for a big effort there. This is clearly a step up in class for the Seahawks, and I expect them to fail here Sunday.
The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Ron Rivera is 9-1 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite as the coach of Carolina. Rivera is also 22-4 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Panthers. Roll with the Panthers Sunday.
|11-25-18||Jaguars v. Bills +3.5||Top||21-24||Win||100||87 h 40 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Buffalo Bills +3.5
We’ve already found out that the Buffalo Bills are trying to win every game they play. That was evident last time out in a 41-10 win as 7-point road dogs over the New York Jets. And now they are coming off their bye week feeling good about themselves, so they’ll be rested and motivated for another win here against the Jaguars.
I certainly question Jacksonville’s motivation at this point. This is a team that made the AFC Championship Game last year, and now they sit at 3-7 off six consecutive losses. There are issues in the locker room that aren’t fixable. And they just blew a big lead in a 20-16 loss to the Steelers last week. I don’t like their state of mind coming into this game at Buffalo.
Now the Jaguars have to head to colder weather, which they aren’t used to. And they have to try and get back up off the mat to face a 3-7 Bills team. I just don’t think they will be motivated at all the rest of the way, especially this week in a hangover spot from that loss to the Steelers.
The Bills have the 2nd-best defense in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. That matches up with their season-long stats as well. The Bills are 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 302.2 yards per game. They are also 2nd in yards per play (4.9) allowed. This is an elite defense, and one that will shut down this putrid Jacksonville offense.
The Bills get a big boost this week with rookie QB Josh Allen returning to the lineup from an elbow injury. They have been highly competitive with Allen this season, and pretty bad without him with the exception of that Jets came when Matt Barkley came in and gave them a spark. I think this offense will take another step forward this week with Allen having two full weeks to prepare for the Jaguars.
The Jaguars have a laundry list of injuries that has contributed to this six-game losing streak, and it’s not getting any better this week. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take the Bills Sunday.
|11-25-18||Raiders +11 v. Ravens||17-34||Loss||-110||87 h 40 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland Raiders +11
The Oakland Raiders showed last week they wouldn’t quit on the season when they went into Arizona and won 23-21 as 4.5-point underdogs. This line of Baltimore laying 11 points Sunday indicates that the Raiders have quit, but they obviously haven’t. I think there’s a ton of value on the Raiders catching double-digits points here this week.
Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to a 24-21 win over the Bengals last week. And Jackson will make another start in place of Joe Flacco. But now the Raiders have some game film on him they can use. And Jackson isn’t going to lead the Ravens to a ton of points simply because his style doesn’t suit it.
Jackson only threw fate ball 19 times last week for 138 yards against the Bengals. They rushed 54 times. They are going to implement a similar game plan here with a run-heavy scheme. And that will keep the clock moving and make it very predictable for the Raiders.
It also helps out the Raiders dramatically because they rank 32nd in the league in yards per pass attempt (8.9) allowed, which is their biggest weakness. The Raiders have at least been respectable against the run and should be able to limit the Ravens’ rushing attack this week.
The Ravens are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. There’s no way they should be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. They are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite, and they have been favored in six consecutive games. I’m confused at all the love for the Ravens at this point.
Plays on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (Oakland) - off an upset win as a road underdog are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1983. Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after outgaining its last opponent by 100 or more yards. The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Raiders Sunday.
|11-25-18||49ers +3.5 v. Bucs||9-27||Loss||-125||87 h 39 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco 49ers +3.5
The Bucs can’t be trusted to be laying 3.5 points at home to the 49ers this week. They are 1-7 in their last eight games overall with their only win coming by exactly 3 points at home against the Browns. I think this is a game where the 49ers have an excellent chance to win outright.
The Bucs keep playing musical chairs at quarterback. Now they are going back to Jameis Winston this week. He has been worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick this season, but they aren’t giving up on him for whatever reason. Whoever is under center has turned the ball over at an alarming rate, and that won’t stop this week. The Bucs have 29 turnovers in their last nine games, averaging 3.2 turnovers per game. It’s simply too tough to win that way.
The Bucs also have a ton of injury issues coming into this game. They are missing four starters on defense in Lavonte David, Chris Conte, Kwon Alexander and Vernon Hargreaves. They have two DE starters questionable in Vinny Curry and Jason Pierre-Paul. They are without their stud tight end in OJ Howard, plus C Ryan Jensen and WR DeSean Jackson are questionable.
The 49ers are coming off their bye week, so they are as healthy as they have been since Week 1. That should have them primed for a big effort here against the hapless Bucs. And I like the fact that Nick Mullens is getting another start this week. Mullens is completing 70.5% of his passes for 512 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions in his two starts this season. Those are better numbers than both Jimmy G and C.J. Beathard have put up this season.
The 49ers have the numbers of a team that is much better than their 2-8 record would indicate, too. They are outgaining opponents by 13.1 yards per game this season. You’d expect them to be at least .500 with those numbers. And their defense has really stepped up the last two weeks, holding the Raiders to just 242 total yards and the Giants to just 277 total yards. They have given up 331 or fewer yards in four consecutive games now.
Tampa Bay is 1-12 ATS after going OVER the total in their previous game over the past two seasons. The 49ers are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games off an upset loss as a favorite. The Bucs are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|11-24-18||BYU +12 v. Utah||Top||27-35||Win||100||71 h 49 m||Show|
20* BYU/Utah FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU +12
This is a very precarious spot for the Utah Utes. Even though it’s a rivalry game, I don’t expect them to be motivated at all. That’s because they have their big game on deck next week in the Pac-12 Championship against the Washington/Washington State Apple Cup winner. And if they win that game, they’ll go to the Rose Bowl.
I just don’t foresee the Utes being motivated at all to face BYU this week. And even if they were motivated, it would be tough for them to cover this 12-point spread because BYU simply doesn’t get blown out. I have no doubt the Cougars will want this game more, and I’ll gladly back the more motivated double-digit underdog in this matchup.
Utah lost its two best players on offense in a 20-38 loss to Arizona State. The Utes were able to win their next two games against Oregon and Colorado without those two players, but I think it catches up with them here. Those two players are QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss, who rushed for 1,092 yards and 11 touchdowns in the first nine games this season.
BYU has had a nice bounce-back season this year and they want to cap it off with an upset win over retire rivals. They are 6-5 this season, but three of those losses have come by 5 points or less. Like I said, this team just doesn’t get blown out. And I think they’ll hold their own in what is sure to be a defensive battle with a total set of only 44. I love taking double-digit dogs in expected defensive battles.
BYU is 6-0 ATS in November road games over the last three seasons. Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (BYU) - off a home win by 17 points or more against an opponent that’s off a double-digit road win are 37-14 (72.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take BYU Saturday.
|11-24-18||Pelicans v. Wizards +1||Top||114-124||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +1
This is a play against the New Orleans Pelicans. They are already without one starter in Elfrid Payton, and now they could be without their best player in Anthony Davis, who had to leave last night’s game against the Knicks with a strained quad. Even if Davis plays I still like this pick, but if he doesn’t it would be an added bonus.
The Pelicans are running on fumes right now. They’ll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the entire NBA. And the Pelicans have been awful on the road this season, going 2-8 SU. So they shouldn’t be favored here given the spot and their road struggles.
The spot isn’t nearly as bad for the Wizards. Yes, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well, but they had two days off prior to last night’s game. That means it will be just their 2nd game in 4 days here. And they are a young, deep enough team to where these back-to-backs don’t affect them as much.
The Wizards have owned the Pelicans, going 12-1 SU in the last 13 meetings. They are a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings as well. New Orleans is 0-7 ATS off a road loss this season. The Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. Bet the Wizards Saturday.
|11-24-18||Nuggets +6 v. Thunder||105-98||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Denver Nuggets +6
The Oklahoma City Thunder are starting to get too much respect from the books after going 12-2 SU in their last 14 games overall. I faded them last night with success on the Hornets +6, and I’ll fade them again here in this tough spot as the Thunder will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.
The Nuggets are in the same situation, but I worry less about them, especially after they blew out Orlando 112-87 last night so their starters didn’t have to play too many minutes. Plus, the Nuggets are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, so they are suited for these back-to-back situations as well as anyone. The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest.
The Nuggets have had the THunder’s number, going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Their only loss during this stretch came by a single point as 5-point road dogs in a 95-94 loss. And here they are catching 6 points, which could certainly come into play tonight even if they don’t win straight up.
The Nuggets are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 division games, while the Thunder are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 division games. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Nuggets Saturday.
|11-24-18||Kansas State +14 v. Iowa State||Top||38-42||Win||100||68 h 48 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +14
The Iowa State Cyclones had their dreams crushed last week. They went into their showdown with Texas last week controlling their own destiny to get to the Big 12 title game. Simply win that game and this week against Kansas State, and they would have made the conference championship game.
But they got worked and lost 10-24 in a game that wasn’t even that close. And for a program like Iowa State, it was an extra crushing loss because they almost never get the opportunity they had last week. And now they will have a hard time getting back up off the mat to face Kansas State this week.
We know Kansas State will be motivated. The Wildcats currently sit at 5-6 and one win shy of bowl eligibility. They have won their last two games against Kansas and Texas Tech to put themselves in this position. And that 21-6 win against Texas Tech as 6.5-point dogs was mighty impressive. They held the high-powered Red Raiders to just 181 total yards. And they are capable of shutting down this mediocre Iowa State offense as well.
Now team has owned Iowa State quite like Kansas State. Indeed, the Wildcats have gone 10-0 SU in their last 10 meetings with the Cyclones. And now they’re catching 14 points, which makes absolutely zero sense. The Cyclones have struggled to score points against the Wildcats in recent years, and that will be the case again Saturday. Especially in this ‘hangover’ spot off the loss to Texas. Bet Kansas State Saturday.
|11-24-18||Rutgers +27.5 v. Michigan State||10-14||Win||100||65 h 48 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +27.5
Quietly, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights have been big money makers down the stretch. They haven’t quit. They have gone 4-0 ATS in in their last four games overall. They only lost 15-18 as 20-point home dogs to Northwestern, 17-31 as 29-point road dogs at Wisconsin, 7-42 as 37-point home dogs to Michigan, and 7-20 as 28-point home dogs to Penn State.
Rutgers has covered the spread by a combined 49 points in its last four games. The betting public wants nothing to do with 1-10 Rutgers, which is why they are consistently catching too many points here down the stretch. And oddsmakers still haven’t adjusted as they are once again catching 27.5-points this week against Michigan State.
I just can’t see Michigan State being motivated enough to beat Rutgers by this kind of margin. The Spartans are 6-5 this season and off back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Nebraska in which they scored a combined 12 points in those two losses. And that’s the issue here with the Spartans. Can they even score 28 points?
Michigan State has a putrid offense that is putting up just 20.3 points per game this season. And Rutgers has a respectable defense that is allowing 409.8 yards per game on the year. The Scarlet Knights are definitely good enough defensively to hold Michigan to less than 28 points. And their offense should contribute a touchdown or two.
The total set in this game is only 37 points. I always like taking big underdogs in games that are expected to be low scoring. Basically they are saying the score is going to be 32-5 based on this total. I think Rutgers can score 7, and I don’t think Michigan State can score 32.
Plays against home favorites (Michigan State) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in weeks 10 through 13 are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Michigan State is 10-27 ATS in its last 37 games after scoring 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games. Mark Dantonio is 0-6 ATS after scoring 6 points or less last game as the coach of Michigan State. Bet Rutgers Saturday.
|11-24-18||Tennessee v. Vanderbilt -3||13-38||Win||100||65 h 45 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -3
Both Vanderbilt and Tennessee have a lot to play for here Saturday. The winner will be going to a bowl game, while the loser will be staying home for bowl season. And it’s Senior Day for the Commodores on their home turf. I just think Vanderbilt is the better team, and they should be laying more than a field goal at home here to the Vols because of it.
Vanderbilt has impressed me a lot here down the stretch. They have played well in five straight games coming in, and that consistency is why I like them so much. It started five weeks ago when they led Florida 21-3 at home, but couldn’t hold on in the second half, losing 27-37 and failing to cover as 9.5-point dogs only after a 43-yard field goal by Florida with 37 seconds left.
Since that defeat, Vanderbilt has gone 4-0 ATS in its last four games, consistently being undervalued. They only lost 7-14 at Kentucky as 10-point dogs, upset Arkansas 45-31 as 2-point road dogs, only lost 28-33 at Missouri as 14.5-point dogs, and beat Ole Miss 36-29 at home as 3-point favorites.
Tennessee has not played well down the stretch, going 1-2 ATS, with their only win coming at home over Kentucky in a clear flat spot for the Wildcats after losing to Georgia the previous week. They only beat a bad Charlotte team 14-3 at home as 21-point favorites. And they lost 17-50 to Missouri as 6-point home dogs last week.
While Vanderbilt has been able to stay remarkably healthy this season, Tennessee has not. They have seven players who are out for the season, and several others who are probable or questionable, including QB Jarrett Guarantano. This guy has taken a beating all season from poor offensive line play, and it’s starting to take its toll. He is dealing with a head injury, and if he takes another big hit Saturday, he’ll get the hook quick. And the drop-off from him to backup Keller Chryst is significant.
No question we are backing the better offense and the better quarterback here in Kyle Shurmur. The senior will be looking to make a statement in his final home game. Shurmur has thrown for 2,477 yards with a 20-to-6 TD/INT ratio this season while completing 61.4% of his passes in the rugged SEC. He has a stud running back to hand the ball off to in Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who has rushed for 976 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging a jaw-dropping 7.1 per carry.
Tennessee’s offense averages just 23.6 points per game overall and 21.3 points per game in conference play. And this is a pretty evenly-matched game defensively, tho the Vols give up more points overall (27.0) and in conference play (35.9) than Vanderbilt does overall (26.2) and in conference play (31.7). So we’re getting the better offense at home on Senior Day playing for a bowl game. That’s worth more than 3 points in my eyes.
Vanderbilt is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Tennessee. The Vols are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record. The Commodores are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Vanderbilt is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games. Take Vanderbilt Saturday.
|11-24-18||Marshall v. Florida International +3||28-25||Push||0||61 h 47 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER On Florida International +3
I’ve cashed in FIU each of the last two weeks. They won 45-7 as 10.5-point favorites at UTSA and 42-35 as 3.5-point favorites at Charlotte. And I’m on FIU again this week simply because I believe they continue to be undervalued here as 3-point home underdogs to Marshall.
Motivation is a big reason I’ve been on FIU. Three weeks ago, win out and they controlled their own destiny to get to the C-USA title game. They’ve completed the first two steps, and now I expect them to finish it off and improve to 7-1 in C-USA with a win over Marshall Saturday.
Marshall is in a questionable motivational spot. Sure, they are still alive for the C-USA East title, but they would also need some help. They would need Middle Tennessee to lose at home to UAB, a team that has nothing to play for this week. I just really like the motivational spot better for FIU here, especially at home on Senior Day, and I simply believe they are the better team as well.
This FIU offense has been impressive this season, averaging 35.5 points per game. And their defense has held opponents to 24.4 points per game. James Morgan is having a huge season at quarterback for the Golden Panthers, completing 65.5% of his passes, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt, and compiling a 26-to-5 TD/INT ratio.
Marshall has an uninspiring offense that is putting up 28.1 points per game this season. Against the same two opponents FIU played the last two weeks, they only managed 30 points against Charlotte and 23 against UTSA. FIU scored 45 on UTSA and 42 on Charlotte. I just don’t think the Thundering Herd have the firepower to keep up in this one.
Marshall is 19-34 ATS in its last 53 games as a road favorite. The Golden Panthers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. FIU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Thundering Herd are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 20 points in their previous game. Marshall is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. Roll with Florida International Saturday.
|11-23-18||Baylor v. Ole Miss +2.5||70-78||Win||100||21 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +2.5
The Baylor Bears are in a rebuild under Scott Drew this season. They lost each of their top four scorers from last year in Manu Lecomte (16.2 PPG), Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. (14.0 PPG, 8.6 RPG), Terry Maston (11.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG) and Nuni Omot (9.9 PPG). That’s 51.5 points per game lost from last season. You simply don’t just replace those four players.
The signs were there that this would be a rebuilding season from Game 1. Baylor lost 69-72 at home to Texas Southern as 22-point favorites. They also only beat lowly Prairie View A&M 91-80 as 16.5-point favorites. And now the Bears will be playing their first road game of the season here Friday.
The Ole Miss Rebels hired Kermit Davis from Middle Tennessee this offseason. Davis won at least 24 gams six times in his 16 years with the Blue Raiders. He was one of the most underrated coaching hires of the offseason. And the cupboard wasn’t bare as the Rebels returned three starters, led by All-SEC caliber G Terence Davis (13.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG last year), plus two breakout candidates in F Bruce Stevens (10.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG) and G Breein Tyree (10.8 PPG).
I’ve been impressed with the job Davis has done already. The Rebels are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS, beating Western Michigan 90-64 as 14-point home favorites and Nicholls State 75-55 as 18.5-point home favorites. They also gave Butler a run for its money in its only true road game thus far, only losing 76-83 as 9-point underdogs. I have no doubt the Rebels are the better team in this matchup and should not be underdogs.
Baylor is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC opponents. The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Bet Ole Miss Friday.
|11-23-18||Hornets +6 v. Thunder||Top||104-109||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +6
The Oklahoma City Thunder are primed for a letdown here. They went into Thanksgiving Break with a huge National TV win over Golden State 123-95 on Wednesday. After beating the defending champs, they’ll have a very hard time getting up to play the Charlotte Hornets tonight.
The Hornets have improved as much as almost any team in the NBA this season. They are off to a 9-8 SU & 11-6 ATS start this season while outscoring their opponents by 5.4 points per game. The improvements have come on offense, where they are scoring 115.7 points per game. And Kemba Walker is having an MVP-caliber season thus far to lead the way, plus all of their young talent is starting to come into their own.
Plays on road underdogs (Charlotte) - off three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more against an opponent that has scored 110 points or more in three straight games are 41-17 (70.7%) ATS since 1996.
Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Hornets Friday.
|11-23-18||Pelicans v. Knicks +7.5||109-114||Win||100||20 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +7.5
The New York Knicks are way undervalued right now. They got off to a fast start this season, became overvalued, but then have lost six of their last seven coming in. And they’ve been catching too many points here of late, including tonight at home against the Pelicans.
The Knicks only lost by 4 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Blazers, and won outright by 8 as 14.5-point road dogs at Boston in their last two games. And now they are catching 7 points here at home against a Pelicans team that is simply getting too much love right now.
Indeed, the Pelicans have won six of their last eight coming in, while also covering five of their last seven against the spread. And when you consider the Pelicans are only 2-7 SU on the road this season, there’s no way they should be favored by 7 points on the highway here against the Knicks.
New York wants revenge from a 124-129 road loss at New Orleans as 11-point dogs on November 16th just a week ago today. That also sets the Knicks up for a very profitable system in support of them.
Plays on underdogs (New York) - revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent, off a huge upset win as a road underdog of 10 points or more are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Knicks Friday.
|11-23-18||Wizards +10 v. Raptors||107-125||Loss||-109||20 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards +10
The Washington Wizards have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA thus far. And there is now trade talk where management says nobody is off limits. That negative media attention certainly has the Wizards undervalued right now.
The Wizards showed a ton of heart last time out after the rumors, coming back from 19 points down at halftime to beat the Clippers 125-118. If they were going to quit, it would have shown in that game. And now I think they can rally around that comeback victory and start playing up to their potential moving forward.
The Raptors are starting to get a lot of love from oddsmakers after their 15-4 start to the season. And I think this is a terrible spot for them. They are coming off a four-game road trip, and I always like fading teams on their first game back from an extended trip. Plus, they’ll be playing their 3rd game in four days here while dealing with family obligations at home Thursday. The Wizards come in on two days’ rest.
Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Washington) - after allowing 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent that scored 120 points or more last game are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Wizards Friday.
|11-23-18||East Carolina +19.5 v. Cincinnati||Top||6-56||Loss||-110||41 h 48 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on East Carolina +19.5
East Carolina may be just 3-7 on the season, but they have the stats more of a 7-3 team, which has them undervalued at this point in the campaign. The Pirates are actually outgaining their opponents by 58 yards per game on the season.
The problem for the Pirates has been turnovers. But they finally won the turnover battle last week, and they beat UConn 55-21 as a result. And I think they can hang with Cincinnati this week. This is a Cincinnati team that has committed at least three turnovers in four of their last six games coming in.
It’s also a Bearcats squad that had their dreams crushed last week in their 25-point loss to UCF. That game decided which team was going to the AAC Title game, and they fell flat on their faces. I don’t expect these Cincinnati players to get back up off the mat in time to face lowly East Carolina. They probably think they can just show up and win, but that won’t be the case.
Especially now that stud freshman Holton Ahlers has taken over at quarterback. He has really thrives the past five games since taking over against mostly a brutal schedule that has included Houston, UCF, Memphis and Tulane. Ahlers has thrown for 1,601 yards with an 11-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for a team-high 571 yards and six scores on 5.2 per carry. He is one of the best freshman QB’s in the country that not many folks know about.
Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS after allowing 37 points or more last game over the past three seasons. The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS in home games when the total is 49.5 to 56 over the last three years. I don’t expect the Bearcats to show up at all this week. That’s going to make it extremely difficult to cover this 19.5-point spread. Bet East Carolina Thursday.
|11-23-18||Houston v. Memphis -7||31-52||Win||100||37 h 19 m||Show|
15* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -7
The AAC West title is on the line here when Houston visits Memphis Friday afternoon. I think the home team has a ton of advantages here that will allow them to not only win, but also cover this generous 7-point spread. Lay the wood on the Tigers here Friday.
For starters, the Liberty Bowl in Memphis has been one of the best home-field advantages in the country. The Tigers have gone 27-6 SU at home over the past five seasons. They are 5-1 at home this season and outscoring their foes by 28.7 points per game. Their only loss this season came 30-31 to unbeaten UCF after they blew a big lead in the 2nd half. Houston’s not nearly as good as UCF.
That’s especially the case now that Houston lost its all-everything QB D’Eriq King to a season-ending injury in the win over Tulane last week. It’s the one player they could not afford to live without. King threw for 2,982 yards with a 36-to-6 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 674 yards and 14 scores. He was their entire offense. Now they have to get freshman QB Clayton Tune ready to make his first-ever road start in a hostile environment. Tune is only completing 47.6% of his 42 attempts this season, and he’s not a dual-threat.
The Cougars will now have a very hard time keeping up with this high-powered Memphis offense Friday. The Tigers are scoring 43.1 points per game and averaging 523.0 yards per game on the season, including 51.5 points per game and 602.8 yards per game at home. That’s why I have no problem laying the seven points with the Tigers here.
Houston is 3-11 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in November games over the last two years. The Cougars are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games on field turf. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Friday games. With what’s at stake here, we’ll get an ‘A-Plus’ effort from Memphis, and Houston won’t be able to match it due to the injury to King. Roll with Memphis Friday.
|11-23-18||Nebraska +9 v. Iowa||28-31||Win||100||37 h 19 m||Show|
15* Nebraska/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska +9
I certainly don’t mind buying stock in Nebraska right now. The Huskers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their only non-cover was a 45-9 win over Bethune-Cookman as 46.5-point favorites in which they pulled their starters after a 38-3 halftime lead. They have been way undervalued since their 0-6 start to the season.
The Huskers haven’t been blown out at all here down the stretch. They covered as 18.5-point dogs at Wisconsin, as 3.5-point dogs at Northwestern in a 31-34 (OT) loss after they blew a 14-point lead late, they beat Minnesota 53-28 as 4-point home favorites, only lost 31-36 at Ohio State as 17-point dogs, crushed Illinois 54-35 as 17-point home favorites, and knocked off Michigan State 9-6 as 1-point home favorites last week.
How they’ve played against all of those teams shows me that they can certainly hang with Iowa, which has lost three of its last four coming in with its only win coming against lowly Illinois. The Hawkeyes seem to just be going through the motions since their dreams of winning the Big Ten West were crushed.
Nebraska certainly has the offense to keep up with the Hawkeyes. They are scoring 30.0 points and averaging 459.6 yards per game in conference play this season. And their defense has only gotten better as the season has gone on. That was on display last week when they held Michigan State to just 6 points and 289 yards of offense. And Iowa has a very similar offense to Michigan State.
No question Nebraska wants revenge from back-to-back blowout losses to the Hawkeyes by 30 and 42 points. But those games were with the anemic Mike Riley at the helm. Scott Frost has changed the culture here already, and he certainly wants his team to know that it’s extremely important to win these rivalry games. No question we’ll get an ‘A-Plus’ effort here from the Cornhuskers knowing this is their final game of the season.
Nebraska is 9-1 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons. Plays on road teams (Nebraska) - with an excellent offense that averages 6.1 or more yards per play, after gaining 3.75 or less hard per play in their previous game are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1992. Take Nebraska Friday.
|11-22-18||Falcons +13.5 v. Saints||Top||17-31||Loss||-115||30 h 19 m||Show|
20* Falcons/Saints NFC South No-Brainer on Atlanta +13.5
What the Saints are doing is absolutely remarkable. They have now covered the spread in eight consecutive games. How rare is that? Well, it happens less than once per season on average. And with that point spread success now comes expectations from oddsmakers that are going to be tough to live up to moving forward.
It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Saints. They haven’t been double-digit favorites once this season, and now they are 13.5-point favorites against the Atlanta Falcons this week. And the Falcons are better than many of the teams they have played, plus they are a division rival that knows the Saints very well. They simply cannot be laying this kind of number against the Falcons this week.
The Falcons will show up because it’s a division rival and because it’s the Saints, who are one of the best teams in the NFL. I actually think the Falcons will want this game more to try and save their season and earn a signature win. And it’s not like the Falcons are losing by these kinds of margins. The only time they would have failed to cover this spread was against the Steelers in a 17-41 loss. The Falcons were banged up badly defensively coming into that game.
The series history shows there’s value with the Falcons, too. The Saints haven’t even been a double-digit favorite against the Falcons since 2009, and they haven’t beaten the Falcons by 14 points or more since 2011. In fact, the Saints haven’t won any of the last 13 meetings by more than 10 points, making for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Falcons pertaining to this 13.5-point spread. And the Falcons will surely be out for revenge from their 37-43 (OT) home loss to the Saints earlier this season.
Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - dominant team that outscores opponents by 10 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Thursday games. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Falcons Thursday.
|11-22-18||Falcons v. Saints OVER 59.5||17-31||Loss||-105||30 h 19 m||Show|
15* NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Saints OVER 59.5
Expect a shootout between the Falcons and Saints Thursday night. They combined for 80 points in their first meeting this season with the Saints winning 43-37 (OT) in Atlanta. They also combined for 941 total yards in that contest. I see no reason this game won’t play out the same way in the rematch.
You already know the Saints are an offensive juggernaut, scoring 37.8 points per game. They should be able to handle their share. But they do give up 25.4 points per game at home, and the Falcons should be able to score their share of points as well. They are scoring 26.3 points per game on the season. The Falcons have scored at least 31 points in five of their last nine games overall.
The Falcons are 20-7 OVER in their last 27 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Saints are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games off five or more consecutive ATS wins. The OVER is 4-0 in Saints last four vs. NFC South opponents. The OVER is 19-8-1 in Saints last 28 home games. The OVER is 16-5 in Falcons last 21 games in a dome. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-22-18||Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +11.5||35-3||Loss||-110||29 h 28 m||Show|
15* Mississippi State/Ole Miss SEC ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +11.5
The Ole Miss Rebels sit at 5-6, needing a win to make a bowl game. They have lost four straight coming in, but it’s not for a lack of trying. Their four losses have all come by 15 points or less, and their offense has been good enough to win every game. I think they’re undervalued due to going 0-5 ATS in their last five games, and now we will ‘buy low’ on them here as double-digit home dogs to Mississippi State.
They were only 5.5-point home dogs to Auburn and 2-point home favorites against South Carolina during this stretch. And Mississippi State isn’t necessarily better than either of those teams, yet they are laying 11.5-points to the Rebels. They were also only 11-point road underdogs to LSU and 21-point home underdogs to Alabama. That fact alone shows you there’s value with the home dog here.
Ole Miss had 447 total yards against Auburn, 616 total yards against South Carolina, 440 total yards against Texas A&M and 578 total yards against Vanderbilt in their last four games. With this offense, they are never out of any game. And I just don’t think Mississippi State has the firepower on offense to put them away.
This is a Mississippi State offense that is only averaging 17.0 points and 301.3 total yards per game in SEC play this season, and that even includes the 52 points they scored against Arkansas. So they have been horrible. The Bulldogs are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, averaging just 10.2 points and 292 yards per game. Ole Miss is 3-3 at home, scoring 41.8 points per game and averaging 572 yards per game.
Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS after having won three of its last four games over the past two seasons. Plays on any team (Ole Miss) - off five or more consecutive ATS losses against an opponent that’s off one or more consecutive ATS wins are 39-11 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Ole Miss Thursday.
|11-21-18||Grizzlies v. Spurs -2.5||104-103||Loss||-107||9 h 22 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio Spurs -2.5
The San Antonio Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after going just 2-6 in their last eight games overall. They are 2-5 in their last seven games, and all five losses came on the road. They actually beat Houston 96-89 as 3.5-point dogs and Golden State 104-92 as 3-point favorites in their two home games during this stretch. They are clearly undervalued right now.
Memphis is overvalued after going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. Now they’re only catching 2.5 points on the road to the Spurs here. That’s not enough when you consider the Spurs are 47-8 SU in their last 55 home meetings with the Grizzlies, including 7-0 in the last seven in the Alamo City.
Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Antonio) - vs. division opponents, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Spurs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games. Take the Spurs Wednesday.
|11-21-18||Clemson -4 v. Creighton||Top||82-87||Loss||-105||8 h 8 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -4
The 16th-ranked Clemson Tigers are one of the best teams in the country. They returned three starters from a team that went 25-10 last season and reached the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1997. And they’ve opened 5-0 this season.
Guard Marcquise Reed was the leading scorer last year and he’s back for his senior year after considering the NBA. Shelton Mitchell also tested the NBA before coming back, giving Clemson one of the ACC’s most experienced backcourts. Forward Elijah Thomas led the team in rebounding last year and is also back for his senior season. David Skara, the team’s best defender, is also back after nearly leaving to play professionally in Croatia. All four are seniors.
Creighton loses four key players from last year, including its top two scorers in Marcus Foster (19.8 PPG) and Cheri Thomas (15.1 PPG). Also gone are Roby Hegner (8.4 PPG) and Ronnie Harrell (7.0 PPG). The Bluejays only return one player who scored in double figures last season in Martin Krampelj (11.9 PPG).
Creighton is 4-1, but all four wins came against bad teams in Western Illinois, East Tennessee State, Boise State and Georgia State. They lost their only game against a quality foe in Ohio State 60-69 at home as 2.5-point dogs. And now Clemson will be the best team they’ve played yet, and they are only catching 4 points here on a neutral court. It’s not enough.
Clemson is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 10-1 ATS after giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds last game over the past three years. Creighton is 2-9 ATS as an underdog over the lsat two seasons. The Bluejays are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. Roll with Clemson Wednesday.
|11-21-18||Pacers v. Hornets -3||Top||109-127||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets -3
The Charlotte Hornets are one of the more underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are 8-8 SU & 10-6 ATS. Their improvement has come on offense, where they are scoring 115.0 points per game and outscoring the opposition by 4.6 points per game on the season. Kemba Walker is playing at an MVP level, scoring a combined 103 points in the last two games.
The Pacers come in overvalued off their 121-94 win over Utah, their third straight win. But all three wins came at home, and the Pacers haven’t played nearly as well on the road. Plus, they could be without their two most talented players in Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner, who are both listed as questionable tonight.
Plays on favorites (Charlotte) - after a home games here both teams scored 100 or more points against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Hornets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Pacers. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.
|11-21-18||Minnesota v. Washington -1||68-66||Loss||-105||7 h 17 m||Show|
15* Minnesota/Washington BTN No-Brainer on Washington -1
The Washington Huskies are loaded this season with all five starters back from a team that went 21-13 last season. They have opened 4-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to Auburn, a Top 10 team in the country.
Minnesota is coming off a 15-17 season and has been a big disappointment since Richard Pitino took over. The Golden Gophers lose two of their best players from last year in Nat Mason (16.7 PPG) and Reggie Lynch (10.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG).
I think Minnesota is overvalued right now due to opening 4-0 this season. The schedule has been easy as both Utah and Texas A&M are rebuilding teams, and wins over Nebraska-Omaha and Santa Clara are far from impressive. I think we’re getting the better team here in the Huskies at basically a pick ‘em price.
Minnesota is 1-13 ATS after failing to cover two of its last three against the spread over the past two seasons. The Golden Gophers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Bet Washington Wednesday.
|11-20-18||Washington -3 v. Texas A&M||Top||71-67||Win||100||11 h 14 m||Show|
20* Washington/Texas A&M ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington -3
The Washington Huskies are loaded this season with all five starters back from a team that went 21-13 last season. They have opened 3-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to Auburn, a Top 10 team in the country.
Texas A&M lost three players to the NBA from last season in F Robert Williams, C Tyler Davis and F DJ Hogg. This was clearly going to be a rebuilding year for them. And now they’ve lost their best returning player in Admon Gilder to a hamstring injury. Gilder decided to return for his senior season after considering the NBA, so this injury is a big blow for them.
The Aggies are just 1-3 this season with their only win coming 98-83 over Savannah State as 29-point favorites. They lost to UC-Irvine at home, lost by 23 to Gonzaga and lost by 5 to Minnesota yesterday. Simply put, they aren’t very good, and they should be more than only 3-point underdogs to Washington today.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Washington) - after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Washington Tuesday.
|11-20-18||Nebraska -2 v. Texas Tech||52-70||Loss||-107||9 h 11 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -2
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that went 22-11 last season, including 13-5 in Big Ten play. Leading the way is first-team All-Big Ten guard James Palmer, who scored in double figures in 31 of 33 games and averaged 18.8 PPG. Also back is G Glynn Watson Jr (10.5 PPG), F Isaac Copeland (12.9 PPG) and F Isaiah Roby (8.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG).
These four have led the Huskers to an impressive 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season with four straight blowout victories. They beat Mississippi Valley State 106-37, SE Louisiana 87-35, Seton Hall 80-57 and Missouri State 85-62. They have covered the spread by a combined 88 points in those four games, or by an average of 22 points per game. Oddsmakers are just way off on this team.
Texas Tech is coming off an impressive 27-10 season last year. However, the Red Raiders lost a ton of talent from that team. They lost leading scorer Keenan Evans (17.2 PPG) and five of their top six scorers overall. It’s a rebuilding year for the Red Raiders this season.
The Huskers are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Red Raiders are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 neutral site games. Texas Tech is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games overall. Take Nebraska Tuesday.
|11-20-18||Blazers v. Knicks +8||118-114||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +8
This is certainly a ‘buy low’ situation on the New York Knicks. They have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. So now they are catching a whopping 8 points at home to the Portland Trail Blazers, and I simply believe it’s too much tonight.
Four of those five losses came on the road, and the other was the 2nd of a back-to-back situation at home to Orlando. So the schedule is the biggest reason for their recent struggles. I look for the Knicks to be highly motivated for a win at home tonight in a much better situation here with yesterday off.
The Blazers are in a much more difficult situation here. They will be playing their fourth straight road game. They lost the first two games on this trip by 9 to the Lakers and by 16 to the Timberwolves before beating the hapless Wizards last time out.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Knicks Tuesday.
|11-20-18||Northern Illinois v. Western Michigan +7||21-28||Win||100||6 h 15 m||Show|
15* NIU/WMU MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Western Michigan +7
We’re definitely getting a ‘buy low’ opportunity here on the Western Michigan Broncos Tuesday night. They have lost three straight coming in, including upset losses to Toledo and Ball State. And now we’re catching more points than we should be with them at home tonight.
I think their misleading 41-42 loss to Ball State has a lot to do with it. Western Michigan racked up 548 total yards in that game and held Ball State to 349, outgaining them by nearly 200 yards. They obviously should have won that game. And they committed six turnovers the game before against Ohio to give that game away as well.
Look for the Broncos to be the more motivated team here at home on Senior Night Tuesday. They want to end their season with a victory over one of their biggest rivals here in Northern Illinois. And they want to get to 7-5 on the season to make sure they get to a bowl game, as just because they are bowl eligible doesn’t mean they’ll be going to a bowl game for sure.
What I do know for sure is that Northern Illinois is in a tough spot mentally here. The Huskies have already clinched the MAC West title, so they’ll be going to the MAC Championship Game no matter what happens here. Their lack of motivation showed last week in a 7-13 upset home los to Miami Ohio. And I don’t see them showing up for this game tonight, either.
Western Michigan is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games vs. good rush defenses that allow 120 or fewer rushing yards per game. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WMU) - good rushing team (190-230 RYPG) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RYPG), after outrushing their last opponent by 150 yards or more are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.
|11-19-18||Arizona v. Iowa State||71-66||Win||100||7 h 3 m||Show|
15* Arizona/Iowa State ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Arizona PK
Arizona reloaded this season by going the transfer route. They nabbed Chase Jeter (Duke), Justin Coleman (Samford) and Ryan Luther (Pitt), who are all playing significant roles for them this season. They are among the top six scorers on the team. And Brandon Randolph (18.7 PPG) and Brandon Williams (14.3 PPG) are leading the team in scoring.
I’ve been impressed with the Wildcats thus far. They are off to a 3-0 start and handling their business with all three wins coming by 21 points or more. And they should be able to handle this Iowa State team that is missing several key players due to injury or suspension coming in.
Iowa State should be good this season, but only if healthy. They are without Lindell Wigginton, last year’s leading scorer. They are without Cameron Lard, last year’s third-leading scorer. And they are without Solomon Young and Zoran Talley Jr., who players who started for them last season. They can’t handle Arizona in their current state.
Arizona is 10-1 ATS in road games after covering two if its last three against the spread over the last three seasons. The Wildcats are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 vs. Big 12 opponents. The Cyclones are 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games. Take Arizona Monday.
|11-19-18||Chiefs +3.5 v. Rams||Top||51-54||Win||100||146 h 3 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Rams ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas City +3.5
I’ve successfully faded the Rams four of the last five weeks. And I’m going to fade them again this week against the Kansas City Chiefs. They have consistently been overvalued, and they remain overvalue here as 3.5-point home favorites against the Chiefs in Los Angeles.
The Rams are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. They did win six of those games outright, but only one came by more than 7 points. They have simply been fortunate in close games, but I think their luck runs out this week against a team the caliber of the Chiefs. And that hook on the +3.5 could certainly come into play here if the Rams do miraculously win another close one.
The problem with the Rams has been defensively. They just haven’t been the same since losing Aqib Talib. The Rams are giving up 27.9 points per game in their last seven games. And they are running on fumes right now because they haven’t had a bye week yet, which I think is affecting their defense a lot more than their offense.
Conversely, the Chiefs have really turned it around on the defensive end after a poor start to the season. The Chiefs have allowed 23 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall. They are giving up just 17.0 points per game in their last four games.
Patrick Mahomes and company are 2nd in the NFL in scoring offense this season at 35.3 points per game. Mahomes is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67% of his passes for 3,150 yards with 31 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. He is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt. It also helps that he has the best set of weapons in the NFL with Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins at his disposal.
The Rams are 3rd in scoring offense at 33.5 points per game. But they suffered a big blow last week with Cooper Kupp suffering a torn ACL. Kupp was leading the team with six touchdown receptions to go along with 40 receptions for 566 yards despite missing two games previously with a knee injury. He may be the most important receiver on the team as he’s been Jared Goff’s security blanket on 3rd down over the past two seasons. His loss is getting scraped under the rug here, but it’s a big one, and Sean McVay even said so after the Seahawks game last week.
So I’m basically getting the better offense and the better defense in this game catching 3.5 points. And the Chiefs are 9-1 this season with their only loss coming to the Patriots on the road on a last-second field goal by a final of 43-40. The Rams don’t have the same kind of home-field advantage as the Patriots. You can actually hear opposing fans out-cheer them in their home games, similar to what we saw with the Seahawks last week and the Packers a few weeks back in Los Angeles. Chiefs fans travel well, too.
The Rams are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games coming in. The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years. Kansas City is 8-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who average 260 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons. The Chiefs are winning by 13.9 points per game in this spot. Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Chiefs Monday.
Note: I originally took the UNDER 63.5 in this game when it was going to be played in Mexico City. I liked the under because the field conditions were expected to be so sloppy that it was going to be difficult for the offenses to put up points. But I no longer like the UNDER now that it has been moved to Los Angeles. I like the Chiefs at +3.5 instead.
|11-19-18||Jazz -3.5 v. Pacers||94-121||Loss||-105||5 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5
The Utah Jazz are fully healthy now and playing some great basketball. They have won four of their last six coming in, including an impressive 98-86 win at Boston as 4-point dogs last time out. They only patch of this season they struggled was when they were playing without leading scorer Donovan Mitchell.
Speaking of leading scorers, the Indiana Pacers will be without their tonight in Victor Oladipo. He is the one player they cannot afford to lose as he averages 21.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 4.7 APG. He is the heart and soul of this team. Without him they are a below-average squad that the Jazz should handle.
The Jazz are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 70% of their games. The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. Roll with the Jazz Monday.
|11-18-18||Vikings +3 v. Bears||Top||20-25||Loss||-118||148 h 41 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +3
The bye week came at a great time for the Minnesota Vikings. They had some of their star players miss last game or the last few games, and they have a good chance at getting back some this week. WR Stephon Diggs will return from a rib injury, and there’s a good chance both S Andrew Dendejo (groin) and LB Anthony Barr (hamstring) make their returns this week as well. Not to mention, CB Xavier Rhodes (foot) is expected to play as well.
The Vikings will be as close to full strength now as they’ve been since Week 1. And they’ll be highly motivated for a win here Sunday night with first place on the line in the NFC North. They sit at 5-3-1 right now, just 0.5 games behind the Chicago Bears for first place. I expect them to handle their business here as I believe they are the better team in both sides of the ball, and they are in a prime spot here off their bye.
The Bears are starting to get too much respect from the books due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. But those three wins came against the Jets, Bills and Lions, which are three of the worst teams in the NFL. Their other three wins came against the Cardinals, Bucs and Seahawks. They haven’t beaten a team that currently has a winning record yet. In fact, they have only PLAYED one team that currently has a winning record, and that was a home loss to the Patriots. They have simply feasted on an easy schedule.
The Vikings have owned the Bears, going 6-1 SU In the last seven meetings. Mike Zimmer is 9-1 ATS off a division win as the coach of Minnesota. Chicago is 6-24 ATS in its last 30 games after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games. The Bears are 0-8 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last three seasons. They are coming back to lose by 15.4 points per game on average the next week. Take the Vikings Sunday.
|11-18-18||Lakers v. Heat -1||113-97||Loss||-103||5 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat -1
The Miami Heat had yesterday off and now host the Lakers. They should be more than 1-point favorites over the Lakers in this matchup considering the Lakers are on the 2nd of a back-to-back.
The Lakers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Heat are 15-6 SU in their last 21 home meetings with the Lakers. Bet the Heat Sunday.
|11-18-18||Texans -2.5 v. Redskins||Top||23-21||Loss||-119||140 h 15 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans -2.5
The Houston Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. They have reeled off six straight victories following an 0-3 start. Yet they aren’t getting any respect from the books. They are only 2.5-point favorites here in a great spot against the Washington Redskins, who are one of the most fraudulent 6-3 teams you will ever see.
The Texans are coming off their bye week. It was good timing because their defense has injuries in the secondary, at linebacker and at receiver where they could get some guys back that they were missing previously. And they now come out of the bye playing with a ton of confidence due to the six straight wins. I think they make it seven in a row Sunday.
The Redskins have gotten to 6-3 with smoke and mirrors. And last week’s 16-3 win over Tampa Bay was one of the most misleading box scores of the season. The Bucs racked up 501 total yards and 29 first downs in that game and punted once, but managed only 3 points. They held the Redskins to just 286 total yards and outgained them by 225 for the game.
This is a similar situation to two weeks ago when the Falcons were coming off the bye and facing the Redskins. They rolled to a 38-14 victory while amassing 491 yards. So, the Redskins have allowed 496 yards per game on average in their last two games against the Falcons and Bucs. Their defense is leaky, and their offense is now one of the worst in the league.
Indeed, the Redskins are scoring just 19.6 points per game on the season while ranking 26th in total offense at 337.4 yards per game. You just can’t win in this league consistently with those kind of offensive numbers, which is why there’s no way they should be 6-3. And the offense is only going to continue to be poor due to all the injuries. The Redskins are missing three starters on the offensive line, and they have a few others questionable. They have also been playing without their top two playmakers in Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson, as well as receiver Paul Richardson.
The bye also gave new receiver Demaryius Thomas time to get acclimated to the offense. The Texans, who rank 14th in total offense at 369.1 yards per game while scoring 24.0 points per game, should only continue to get better on offense now with Thomas around. And they could finally get fellow receiver Keke Coutee back from a hamstring injury this week.
Defensively, the Texans have one of the best units in the league. They are giving up just 20.4 points per game while ranking 9th in total defense at 336.3 yards per game. JJ Watt is in line to earn Comeback Player of the Year as he’s back to being his former self. And Jadeveon Clowney is also wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks. Watt and Clowney will be licking their chops at the opportunity to get after Alex Smith while working against a Redskins offensive line full of backups.
Jay Gruden is 2-9 ATS after allowing 14 points or less as the coach of Washington. The Redskins are 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less over the last two seasons. The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week. The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a tam with a winning road record. Washington is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games following a win.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Washington) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Texans Sunday.
|11-18-18||Titans v. Colts -2||10-38||Win||100||140 h 15 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -2
The Colts are such a better team with Andrew Luck at quarterback that it’s like night and day. They have been competitive this season and come in playing their best football of the season. They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games, outscoring their last three opponents by a combined 49 points. Yet they continue to get no respect as only 2-point home favorites against the Tennessee Titans this week.
The Titans looked awful through their first seven games this year. They opened 3-4 with all three of their wins coming by exactly 3 points. But then they had their bye week and have delivered back-to-back eye-opening performances, winning 28-14 at Dallas and 34-10 at home against New England. No question those two results were impressive, but it also has the Titans now overvalued.
And I think this is a massive letdown spot for the Titans. We’ve seen several teams over the years have a letdown after beating the Patriots, and I expect that to be the case again this week. Mike Vraebel and company put a lot of effort into beating their former team last week, including Dion Lewis, who was not shy with his comments after the game about how much the team wanted to beat the Patriots. It’s only human nature for them to have a letdown the next week.
Even after those two performances, the Titans are still scoring just 18.7 points per game on the season while ranking 30th in total offense at 299.0 yards per game. This offense still isn’t any good, and it doesn’t stand much of a chance of keeping up with the Colts score for score. The Colts are scoring 28.9 points per game while ranking 9th in total offense at 379.8 yards per game behind Luck. And they’ve gotten some key playmakers back in recent weeks in T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle and Marlon Mack that will only make them even more explosive moving forward.
The Titans are 1-9 ATS in last 10 road games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game. The Colts are 48-27 ATS in their last 75 games after scoring 25 points or more in two consecutive games. Tennessee is 16-34-2 ATS in its last 52 games following a win. The Titans are 10-27-3 ATS in their last 40 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Colts are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Indianapolis is 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 November games. The Colts are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Indianapolis.
Plays against road underdogs or PK (Tennessee) - off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage between 45-55% on the season are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1983. Roll with the Colts Sunday.
|11-17-18||San Diego State +15 v. Fresno State||Top||14-23||Win||100||116 h 41 m||Show|
20* SDSU/Fresno State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego State +15
This is the perfect opportunity to ‘buy low’ on San Diego State and ‘sell high’ on Fresno State. We’ll ‘sell high’ on the Bulldogs, who have been the best point spread team in the country over the last two seasons, going 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. Now they are being asked to lay a whopping 15 points to a San Diego State team capable of winning outright.
We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Aztecs, who are coming off the biggest upset loss of the week last week. They lost 24-27 at home to UNLV as 24-point favorites. Now the betting public wants nothing to do with the Aztecs this week after seeing that result. But there’s a perfectly good explanation for it when you read between the lines.
San Diego State woke up Saturday morning knowing they could lose to UNLV and STILL win the Mountain West’s West Division title. That’s because they saw Fresno State lose to Boise State Friday night. That meant Fresno State was 5-1 within the conference, and San Diego State was sitting at 4-1. So a win or loss didn’t matter. The Aztecs knew that they could win the tiebreaker over Fresno State simply by winning this week. And that’s the scenario.
No question we are getting extra value here on San Diego State because they lost to UNLV last week. And it’s value we’ll take advantage of. This line probably would have been closer to 7 had they not lost to UNLV. And I have no doubt we get a big effort here from the Aztecs in bounce-back mode with the division title on the line.
San Diego State has actually gotten two huge pieces back recently from injury that will make them a tough out here against Fresno State. QB Christian Chapman has returned to the lineup and has played in just four games this season. He completes 67.3% of his passes, which is a huge upgrade over Ryan Agnew, who completed just 51.9% in his absence.
The other huge player the Aztecs got back was RB Juwan Washington. He has rushed for 674 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.1 per carry in only six games this season, which means he has missed four games. He is the most talented player on the entire roster and gives the Aztecs a fighting chance to pull this upset Saturday night.
The Bulldogs still have the edge on offense, but I give the edge to the Aztecs on defense, and that gives them a fighting chance. San Diego State is only allowing 20.7 points, 302 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season. They are holding opponents to 7.5 points, 83 yards and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages this season. They have played a much tougher schedule than Fresno State has, too. And keep in mind San Diego State won 19-13 at Boise State as 13-point dogs, while Fresno State lost at Boise State 17-24 as 2-point favorites.
San Diego State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games off a loss by 3 points or less. The Aztecs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game. San Diego State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games on field turf. This line has gotten out of hand. The Aztecs will come to play with the division title at stake, while the Bulldogs could suffer a hangover from that loss to Boise State last week. Bet San Diego State Saturday.
|11-17-18||Kings +12.5 v. Rockets||112-132||Loss||-110||8 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +12.5
The Houston Rockets come into this game overvalued after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They are also in a massive letdown spot here off their win over the defending champion Golden State Warriors on Thursday, a game they clearly had circled.
The Rockets won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight. The Kings played yesterday in a 104-112 loss to the Grizzlies, but this back-to-back situation isn’t so bad for them.
That’s because they had three days off prior to that Memphis game. This is a very young, deep team that will have plenty of energy left in the tank to give the Rockets a run for their money tonight.
The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest. The Kings are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets. Houston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games off three or more consecutive ATS wins. Roll with the Kings Saturday.
|11-17-18||St. Louis +6.5 v. Seton Hall||66-64||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Saint Louis +6.5
Saint Louis is a team on the rise under Travis Ford. They are expected to challenge for an Atlantic 10 title this season, and for good reason. They return three starters who combined to average 34 points per game last season.
The Billikens are off to a 3-0 start, but they are 0-3 ATS, which I believe has them undervalued going into this game with Seton Hall Saturday. This is a game they can win outright.
Seton Hall is a team I had circled as one that I should fade all season when given the opportunity. That’s because they return just one starter this season and lose their three stars from last year in Khadeem Carrington, Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriquez, who combined for nearly 47 points per game last year.
That trio is irreplaceable. It’s clearly a rebuilding year for head coach Kevin Willard. That was evident last time out when the Pirates lost 57-80 at Nebraska. They should not even be favored in this game, let alone 6.5-point favorites at that.
Seton Hall is 3-12 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons. Bet Saint Louis Saturday.
|11-17-18||Rice +44 v. LSU||10-42||Win||100||113 h 41 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +44
I always like fading SEC teams in this spot. They step out of conference late in the season to face a non-conference opponent. They are never motivated for these games, and they aren’t looking to run up the score, either. They are looking to play their starters for a half before giving way to the backups. It’s as easy as it gets taking the big underdog in these spots.
My favorite SEC candidate to fade in this spot this week is LSU, though there’s plenty to choose from. But LSU makes the best candidate because they don’t put up big numbers offensively. Heck, I’d be surprised if they even score 44 points, which is what it’s going to take and then some to cover this 44-point spread.
LSU is winning with defense, not offense this season. The Tigers are only averaging 26.7 points and 362.3 yards per game on the year. We saw LSU step out of conference earlier this season and only beat LA Tech 38-21 as 18.5-point favorites. And that game is significant because Rice just played LA Tech.
In fact, Rice actually led LA Tech in the second half on the road last week. But they ultimately lost 13-28 as 23-point underdogs, easily covering the spread. And they have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall as they have consistently been catching too many points. They only lost by 19 as 23-point dogs at FIU and by 24 as 29.5-point dogs at North Texas. They are once again catching too many points this week.
The clock is constantly going to be moving, which will shorten the game and help Rice cover here. That’s because both of these teams rely heavily on the run to move the football. LSU averages 42 rushing attempts per game compared to only 28 passing. Rice averages 37 rushing attempts per game compared to 31 passing. It’s no surprise that both teams have won the time of possession battle this season.
I also like the quotes I’ve read from Rice head coach Mike Bloomgren heading into this one. “We can’t come out of the tunnel and let Death Valley or Mike the Tigers score points for them. We’ve got to make them line up across from us, go toe-to-toe and earn everything they get. And we’ve got to give it back to them. That’s what I expect from our guys. Nobody outside these walls believes we can do it. We know we can. So let’s go. Let’s just go play football and enjoy every minute.”
I guarantee you LSU doesn’t have that same mindset. They think they can just show up and win, which they probably can, but not by 44 points. And they’ll certainly be more worried about their road game at Texas A&M next week that will likely decide whether or not they will make it to a New Year’s Six Bowl. Their concern is staying healthy and just getting out with a win, not with a cover.
Plays against home favorites of 31.5 or more points (LSU) - after allowing 10 or less rushing yards last game are 35-17 (72.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Tigers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. The Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Rice Saturday.
|11-17-18||Lakers -4 v. Magic||117-130||Loss||-105||8 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Lakers -4
The Lakers are finally starting to play up to their potential. They have gone 4-0 in their last four games overall. They are only laying 4 points here to the Orlando Magic, and I think we’re getting a discount today.
The Lakers are well-rested as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. The Lakers are coming off a 126-117 win over Portland on Wednesday. Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.
The Magic are coming off an upset win over the 76ers. The Magic are just 19-44 ATS in their last 63 games following a win. Orlando is also just 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games when paying on two days’ rest. Take the Lakers Saturday.
|11-17-18||76ers v. Hornets -2||Top||122-119||Loss||-110||7 h 27 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2
The Charlotte Hornets will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after their worst loss of the season, an 89-113 setback at Cleveland as 8.5-point favorites. They’ve had three days off since that loss on Tuesday to get ready for this game tonight.
Conversely, the Philadelphia 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days here. They won a hard-fought battle with the Jazz 113-107 last night. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Hornets. This is a dream spot for Charlotte.
Adding fuel to the fire for the Hornets is the fact that they’ve already lost their first two meetings with the 76ers by a combined 3 points. So they’ll be revenge-minded here.
Charlotte is a perfect 13-0 ATS vs. teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons. The Hornets are winning by 10.5 points per game on average in this spot. Bet the Hornets Saturday.
|11-17-18||Indiana +28 v. Michigan||Top||20-31||Win||100||118 h 34 m||Show|
20* CFB Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +28
I liked the fight I saw in Indiana last week as they beat Maryland 34-32 at home to keep their bowl hopes alive and improve to 5-5 on the season. I look for the Hoosiers to fight again this week to try and knock off the big, bad Michigan Wolverines. And they are catching 28 points to boot, so we have a ton of room to work with.
We see this almost every season where a team gets ranked highly in the playoff rankings. And with that high ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are tough to live up to. Michigan failed to cover as 37-point favorites at Rutgers last week, and they are going to have to play a near-perfect game to cover against Indiana this week.
You also have to consider the mental state of the Wolverines right now. They don’t need style points, they just need to win out and they’ll get in the four-team playoff. Plain and simple. So they won’t be looking to pour it on here against Indiana, only to get out with a win. And then you consider that Michigan will likely be overlooking Indiana and looking ahead to the huge showdown at Ohio State next week, and we are getting a ton of value here with the Hoosiers.
Indiana hasn’t lost by this margin all season. All five of their losses came by 26 points or fewer, including their 26-49 road loss at Ohio State as 27.5-point underdogs. That game was much closer than the final score showed. They only lost to Michigan State by 14, a Spartans team that was coming off a bye. And they only lost by 5 as 14-point dogs to Penn State. They have played the best teams in the Big Ten East tough thus far.
Michigan’s offense only averages 422 yards per game. Indiana’s offense averages 411 yards per game, which is 43 yards per game more than their opponents normally give up on average. The Hoosiers have faced the gauntlet in terms of strength of opposing defenses, and they’ve bene able to score plenty of points to be competitive. So they won’t be phased by this Michigan defense they are about to see.
Michigan’s defense hasn’t faced many quarterbacks the caliber of Indiana’s Peyton Ramsey. He is an accurate thrower who completes 67.3% of his passes, and he has some mobility as he has rushed for 266 yards and four touchdowns this year. His escapability will be key here in creating some plays with his legs that Michigan doesn’t usually have to account for.
Indiana also will be revenge-minded. The Hoosiers have lost two of their last three meetings with the Wolverines in overtime, and the other was a 10-point road loss. So they have played the Wolverines right down to the wire each of the last three seasons. Plus, the Hoosiers haven’t lost any of their last seven meetings with the Wolverines by more than 24 points, which makes for a 7-0 ATS system backing them pertaining to this 28-point spread.
Jim Harbaugh is 1-8 ATS off a win by 35 or more points as the coach of Michigan. Harbaugh is 0-6 ATS off a blowout win by 35 points or more against a conference opponent as the coach of the Wolverines. This is also a 100% never lost system pertaining to Harbaugh at Michigan in this spot. Take Indiana Saturday.
|11-17-18||Florida International -5.5 v. Charlotte||42-35||Win||100||107 h 11 m||Show|
15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida International -5.5
I was on Florida International -10 at UTSA last week and they delivered with an emphatic 45-7 victory. I’m back on them again for many of the same reasons, and for the simple fact that they should be laying more than 5.5 points to Charlotte this week.
FIU is a highly motivated team right now. That’s because a win this week would tie them for first place with Middle Tennessee for the C-USA East Division lead. And they beat Middle Tennessee 24-21, so they own the tiebreaker. Essentially, they control their own destiny. Win out and they will win the East Division and earn a trip to the C-USA Championship Game to face UAB. I expect them to handle their business this week.
Charlotte is in a world of hurt right now offensively. They lost starting QB Chris Reynolds a few weeks back to a season-ending ankle injury. He was completing 64.9% of his passes with a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio at the time of his departure. Backup Evan Shirreffs just hasn’t been nearly as good, completing only 51.9% of his passes with a 2-to-4 TD/INT ratio. Reynolds averaged 7.6 YPA compared to 6.1 YPA for Shirreffs as well.
That helps explain why Charlotte’s offense has struggled so badly over the last four weeks. They are averaging just 11.5 points per game and 253 yards per game in their last four games. I just don’t see how Charlotte can possibly hang with this high-powered FIU attack that is averaging 34.8 points per game on the season. Offensively, this is a huge mismatch, and we’ll gladly bet the better offensive team here.
FIU is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games off a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. Charlotte is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games off two consecutive games where it committed one or fewer turnovers. The Golden Panthers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games off a win by 21 points or more.
Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - after having lost five or six of their last seven games against opponent after having won three of their last four games are 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take Florida International Saturday.
|11-17-18||Northwestern v. Minnesota +3||Top||24-14||Loss||-120||116 h 45 m||Show|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota +3
This game has everything I look for when seeking out a pick to use as my 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR. We have one team who will be max motivated in Minnesota up against another team in Northwestern that is likely to just go through the motions. And we’re getting the max motivated team as the underdog.
The reason the Golden Gophers will be max motivated is because they sit at 5-5 and need a win to get to a bowl game. And with a road game at Wisconsin on deck, this is their best chance to get it. It’s also Senior Day for Minnesota here. So they have every reason to want to lay it all on the line to win this game.
Conversely, Northwestern just clinched everything with last week’s 14-10 win at Iowa. They clinched the Big Ten West Division title, which means they will be going to the Conference Championship Game to face either Michigan or Ohio State. And they clinched a bowl berth with their 6th win.
I expect the Wildcats to fall flat on their faces this week as they don’t care one bit whether or not they win this game now. They’ve been getting patted on the back all week at school and having everyone tell them how good they are. They probably also partied more than usual this week leading up to the game. It’s just not a spot where you want to be betting on the Wildcats this week.
Plus, one of my favorite trends this season is that the underdog in Northwestern games is now 9-0-1 ATS on the season. I used this trend last week when I backed the Wildcats as my 25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR. And I’m using it again this week to fade them in this horrific spot. Pat Fitzgerald knows how to motivated his team when they are the underdog, but not when he has expectations and he is favored.
Northwestern was favored by 3 at home against Duke and lost 7-21. The Wildcats were favored by 21 against Akron and lost outright 34-39. They were favored by 3.5 against Nebraska and won 34-31 only after a last-second miracle, but failed to cover. And they were favored by 20 at Rutgers and barely escaped with an 18-15 victory.
Minnesota’s 41-10 win over Purdue as 11-point underdogs last week was one of the best performances of the season. The Golden Gophers came into that game knowing they needed to beat Purdue and Northwestern to make a bowl, and step 1 is completed. They held that high-octane Purdue offensive attack to just 233 total yards in the win.
The Golden Gophers have a huge home/road split this season. They have yet to win a road game, but they are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this year, outscoring their opponents by 14.9 points per game in the process. And home-field advantage has been huge in this series in recent meetings as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Minnesota is 24-9-2 ATS in its last 35 November games. The Golden Gophers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an upset win as a double-digit underdog. Bet Minnesota Saturday.
Note: I know this line has flipped to Minnesota -2.5 as of this writing Saturday morning. I still like Minnesota as a 25* up to -3 today.
|11-17-18||TCU v. Baylor -2||Top||16-9||Loss||-109||105 h 12 m||Show|
20* TCU/Baylor Big 12 Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -2
The books have been off on TCU all season. They are just 4-6 SU & 1-9 ATS this year. Yet they keep getting respect from the books week after week. And they’re getting too much respect again this week as only 2-point road underdogs to the Baylor Bears.
Things have gotten so bad for TCU that they lost outright to Kansas as 13-point favorites. They have completely fallen apart since losing to Ohio State in Week 3. They are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games since then and have failed to cover by a combined 101 points in those seven games! Books haven’t even been close on this team.
While TCU still has a respectable defense, though were forced for 52 points against Oklahoma and 47 against West Virginia. But the defense isn’t the issue. It’s the putrid offense that has been held to 17 points or fewer in five of their last seven games. That’s just not going to cut it in the Big 12. They lost starting QB Shawn Robinson to a season-ending shoulder injury on October 22nd, and then lost their best playmaker in KaVontae Turpin on October 23rd due to a suspension.
I don’t even think TCU wants to make a bowl game at this point, they just want the season to be over. The Horned Frogs lost 10-47 at West Virginia last week and looked to have quit. We actually saw this a few years back in 2013 with the Horned Frogs as they finished 4-8. Sitting at 4-6 on the season, a 4-8 finish is highly likely at this point.
Conversely, Baylor wants to get to a bowl game. The Bears are in the second year under Matt Rhule and have been one of the most improved teams in the country. They sit at 5-5 on the season and one win shy of a bowl berth. They’ll be highly motivated to clinch that bowl bid here at home Saturday instead of waiting until next week against Texas Tech.
I was impressed with the way Baylor played against Iowa State on the road last week. If they didn’t have struggles in the red zone and two missed chip shot field goals, they probably would have won that game. They actually outgained the Cyclones 505 to 355 in that game, or by 150 total yards. Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12, so putting up 505 yards on them is no small feat.
The Bears received good news early this week when it was announced that QB Charlie Brewer wouldn’t be suspended for this game after getting ejected against Iowa State. Brewer is completing 61.6% of his passes for 2,164 yards with 14 touchdowns and only six interceptions on the season, while also rushing for 223 yards and four scores. He has really taken a big step forward as a sophomore this season, as has the rest of this team under the guidance of Rhule.
TCU is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better this season. The Horned Frogs are 0-7 ATS in conference games this season. This is simply as obvious as it looks folks. The Horned Frogs are once again getting respect from the books that they don’t deserve here. Roll with Baylor Saturday.
|11-17-18||Arkansas +20.5 v. Mississippi State||6-52||Loss||-109||105 h 12 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas +20.5
I usually look to fade teams the week after they play Alabama. There’s usually a ‘hangover’ effect from the loss to the No. 1 team in the country. Simply put, teams won’t be nearly as motivated against their next opponent. And teams certainly are beat up physically from facing the Crimson Tide. Such is the case for Mississippi State this week.
I faded LSU in the same spot last week off their 29-0 loss to Alabama. And they failed to cover as 14-point favorites against Arkansas. And now I’m backing Arkansas again this week because they are once again facing the team that played Alabama last week. They keep getting these good scheduling spots to close out the season.
Quietly, Arkansas has gone 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The betting public wants nothing to do with this team because they are just 2-8 SU on the season. They are catching too many points every week, and that’s again the case here this week as nearly three-touchdowns underdogs to the Bulldogs.
I’m not sure how Mississippi State is expected to cover three touchdowns when they have had a hard time even scoring three touchdowns. Indeed, the Bulldogs have failed to top 28 points in any SEC game this season. They are scoring just 11.2 points per game and averaging just 272.3 yards per game against SEC opponents this season. Arkansas held LSU to just 24 points last week, and they should be able to hold Mississippi State to 24 or fewer, too.
The Razorbacks have been respectable against the run this season, giving up just 155 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry. That will be the key to their cover this week because Mississippi State is only completing 50.2% of its passes and is not known as a passing team. The Bulldogs average 212 rushing yards per game, and that’s their strength. They are very predictable.
Arkansas is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games with a total set of 45.5 to 49 points. The Razorbacks are 7-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent over the last three years. Arkansas is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry over the last three years. The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing the Razorbacks. Bet Arkansas Saturday.
|11-17-18||Ohio State -16.5 v. Maryland||52-51||Loss||-103||105 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -16.5
I cashed in Ohio State last week against Michigan State, and style points was the theme. They took care of business in a 26-6 win as only 3.5-point favorites. The Buckeyes need style points this time of year because they are 10th in the latest playoff rankings. And they’ll be looking for more style points this week against Maryland.
Let’s just look at the last four meetings in this series, and you’ll love Ohio State as much as I do this week. The Buckeyes are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, winning by 48, 59, 21 and 28 points. They have won those four meetings by an average of 39 points per game. And we’re only having to lay 16.5 with the Buckeyes this week? Sign me up.
The reason Maryland struggles against teams like Ohio State is because they can’t keep up with them offensively. Maryland is a run-first team that struggles against teams that can stop the run. That was on display two weeks ago when they lost to Michigan State 24-3 at home, the same Michigan State team Ohio State just beat by 20 on the road.
Maryland only averages 131 passing yards per game, but 235 rushing. Well, Ohio State has been good at stopping the run this season as they give up just 143 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. The only teams that Ohio State has really struggled against are teams that can throw the ball, which includes their narrow wins over Nebraska and Penn State, and their loss to Purdue. They won’t struggle against this predictable Maryland outfit.
Maryland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after gaining 350 or more rushing yards in their last game. They ran all over Indiana last week and still lost 32-34. Again, that’s the same Indiana team that lost by 23 to Ohio State. The Terrapins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good passing teams who complete 62% of their passes or better. They are losing by 30.6 points per game on average in this spot. Look for the Buckeyes to hang a big number on the Terrapins and cover this generous number with ease. Roll with Ohio State Saturday.
|11-17-18||South Florida v. Temple -13.5||17-27||Loss||-112||105 h 11 m||Show|
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple -13.5
It was obvious that South Florida’s 7-0 start was a fraudulent one. They were outgained by 176 yards by Georgia Tech and found a way to win. They were also outgained by 116 yards by ECU and won 20-13. They only beat Tulsa by one and UConn by 8, and those are two of the worst teams in the AAC.
But once the competition ramped up in recent weeks, the Bulls were exposed for the frauds that they are. They lost 36-57 at Houston and were outgained by 215 yards. They lost 15-41 to Tulane at home, getting upset as 6-point favorites. And they lost 23-35 at Cincinnati last week. It’s worth noting the Bearcats had the ball down to the USF 1-yard line in closing seconds and took a knee.
Now they have to face Temple, which I believe is the best team in the AAC. They beat Cincinnati earlier this season and have been playing great football. They should have beaten UCF a few weeks ago as they outgained them by 40 yards but blew a late lead and lost 40-52 on the road. And then last week they went on the road at Houston and won 59-49 as 3.5-point dogs. South Florida was blasted by both Houston and Cincinnati, and they’d get blasted by UCF, too. They’ll get blasted by Temple this week.
This is a Temple offense that is hitting on all cylinders right now. They put up 40 points and 670 total yards on UCF two weeks ago, and then 59 points and 537 total yards on Houston last week. When I’m laying double-digit points like this, I want it to be with an offense that is going to put up a big number. And there’s no question the Owls are going to hang a big number on this poor USF defense that has allowed an average of 38.2 points per game in their last six games. That’s real bad when you consider UMass, Tulsa, UConn and Tulane were four of those six opponents.
I have to believe Temple remembers their 7-43 road loss at South Florida last year. The Bulls weren’t afraid to run up the score on them, and the Owls won’t be afraid to run of the score this season to return the favor. Temple won 46-30 in their last home meeting in 2016 as 6-point underdogs. And this is the first time in recent seasons that Temple actually has the better team between these two. They should have no problem winning by two-plus touchdowns here on Senior Day, which is also extra motivation for them.
The Owls are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 conference games. The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Temple is 8-0 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last three seasons. The Owls are 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games over the last three years. The Owls are 9-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game over the past three seasons. These last four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Owls. Take Temple Saturday.
|11-16-18||Memphis v. SMU OVER 72||Top||28-18||Loss||-110||90 h 6 m||Show|
20* Memphis/SMU ESPN 2 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 72
Get ready for plenty of offensive fireworks Friday night in this standalone game between Memphis and SMU in AAC action. Both teams will be full speed trying to put up as many points as possible, and there will be very little defense being played in this battle between two teams known for offense and not so much for defense.
Memphis is putting up 44.6 points and 531.9 yards per game this season behind a balanced attack that produces 270 rushing yards per game and 262 passing. SMU is scoring 32.3 points per game this season and has improved as the season has gone on under Sonny Dykes. The Mustangs put up 45 points against Houston and 62 points against UConn in their last two games coming in.
The problem both of these teams have is that they cannot defend a lick. The Mustangs are giving up 36.8 points per game, while the Tigers are yielding 30.5 points per game on the season. The Tigers have gone OVER the total in three straight coming in, while the Mustangs have gone OVER in each of their last two contests.
I think we get a similar output to last year when Memphis beat SMU 66-45 for 111 combined points and a total of 71.5. The Tigers racked up 664 total yards in the win, while the Mustangs managed 477 themselves. That was a similar total to this 72.5-point number we’re seeing here. And I just think it’s two low as both of these teams get to at least 35 points in this one with Memphis likely topping 50. After all, Memphis has scored at least 48 points in each of its last four meetings with SMU.
Memphis is a perfect 7-0 to the OVER in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons. We’re seeing 89.1 combined points per game on average in this spot. The OVER is 9-1 in Tigers last 10 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game. The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last four November games. The OVER is 5-0 in Mustangs last five November games. These four trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-16-18||Kings +7 v. Grizzlies||104-112||Loss||-107||10 h 16 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +7
Both the Sacramento Kings (8-6) and Memphis Grizzlies (8-5) have been two of the surprise teams in the NBA this season. The Grizzlies are winning with defense, while the Kings are winning with offense.
The Kings are averaging 114.5 points per game this season, way up from last year, and it’s largely due to the improvement of point guard De’Aron Fox in his second season. The Kings are shooting 48.2% as a team as they have gotten out in transition more and gotten easier buckets.
The Kings come in rested as they have had the last three days off, so they’ll be ready to go tonight. And Sacramento is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on three or more days’ rest.
I think this is a precarious spot for the Grizzlies. They just pulled off a huge 116-113 upset at Milwaukee on Wednesday as 9.5-point underdogs. They could be in line for a letdown here against the Kings, who won 97-92 in their first meeting this season back on October 24th.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - off a road win by 3 points or less, a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games playing a team with a winning record and 65-30 (68.4%) ATS since 1996. Roll with the Kings Friday.
|11-16-18||Raptors v. Celtics -1.5||116-123||Win||100||9 h 21 m||Show|
15* Raptors/Celtics ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Boston -1.5
The Boston Celtics are undervalued right now due to their lackluster 8-6 start that has seen them go 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They should be bigger than 1.5-point home favorites against the Toronto Raptors tonight.
The Celtics came through with one of their best performances of the season last time out. They crushed the Bulls 111-82 at home. And now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. They’ll be motivated to prove to the Raptors that they are the best team in the East.
The Raptors opened 12-1 this season. But they were overvalued at that point, and have since lost two straight at home to the Pelicans by 16 and the Pistons by 2. They were nearly double-digit favorites in both those games. They have some injury concerns right now that aren’t helping, either.
The Celtics are 9-0 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past two seasons. Boston is 12-3 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more over the last two years. The Celtics are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the Celtics Friday.
|11-15-18||Florida Atlantic v. North Texas OVER 61||Top||38-41||Win||100||67 h 31 m||Show|
20* FAU/North Texas CFB Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 61
I think we’re getting value on the OVER tonight between FAU and North Texas because both of these teams have been under teams of late, especially the Mean Green. North Texas has gone under the total in all 10 of their games thus far, which is almost unheard of. But that trend stops tonight.
The problem recently with betting overs in North Texas games is all the poor offenses they’ve been up against this season. But they have still combined for 61 or more points four times with their opponents this season, and most of those were against the best offensive teams the’ve faced in SMU, Arkansas and Old Dominion.
FAU has gone under the total in three of their last four games coming in. The one exception was against the best offensive team they faced in FIU, and they combined for 63 points with the Golden Panthers. The fact of the matter is that these are two of the best offensive teams in Conference USA, and we’re going to see plenty of points between them as a result to top this 61-point total.
North Texas boasts an offense that puts up 37.2 points and 464.7 yards per game this season. Florida Atlantic’s offense is putting up 31.1 points and 476.5 yards per game on the year. The Owls are getting better as the season goes on offensively. They put up 49 points and 596 yards against FIU and 34 points and 576 yards against Western Kentucky in their last two games coming in.
These teams met twice last year. The first meeting was a 69-31 FAU blowout with 100 combined points and a total of 67. The second meeting was in the Conference Championship Game with FAU winning 41-17 and 58 combined points with a total of 71.5. So the fact that the total was 67 and 71.5 in the two meetings last year and now it’s only 61 in the rematch this year shows there’s clearly value with the OVER. I expect both teams to top 30 points in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-15-18||Packers v. Seahawks -2.5||24-27||Win||100||65 h 19 m||Show|
15* Packers/Seahawks NFC No-Brainer on Seattle -2.5
Thursday night home teams have a huge advantage on these short weeks, and I don’t think that’s being factored into the line enough here. The home team is now 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in Thursday games thiss Eason. The only two teams that lost were the Giants and Cardinals, two of the worst teams in the NFL, and they were both underdogs to the Eagles and Broncos, respectively.
I actually have the Packers and Seahawks power-rated as basically even teams on a neutral field. But when you factor in the home field for the Seahawks, and the situation with this being a short week and them only having to travel from Los Angeles to Seattle, while the Packers have to travel from Green Bay all the way to Seattle, and I think there’s ample value to back the Seahawks as 2.5-point home favorites here.
The Seahawks are clearly better than a 4-5 team, too. All five of their losses have come by 8 points or less, so they’ve been competitive in every game. That includes 2 and 5-point losses to the Rams, who many consider to be the best team in the NFL. The other losses were to the Broncos, Bears and Chargers with the first two of those on the road. The Seahawks are actually outscoring opponents by 3.0 points per game on the season despite their record. And it’s worth noting that the Seahawks have played six of their first nine games on the road.
Green Bay has a big home-road split this season. The Packers are 4-0-1 at home where they have handled their business. However, the Packers are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 9.5 points per game on average. They lost to the Redskins by 14, the Lions by 8 and the Patriots by 14. The Redskins and Lions aren’t as good as the Seahawks.
Seattle is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games after a game where 60 or more points were scored. Pete Carroll is 17-4 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season as the coach of Seattle. Carroll is 11-2 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as the coach of the Seahawks. Carroll is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games as the coach of the Seahawks. Carroll is 7-0 ATS when playing on Thursday as the coach of Seattle. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the Seahawks Thursday.
|11-15-18||Warriors v. Rockets -1.5||86-107||Win||100||18 h 23 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Rockets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Houston -1.5
The Houston Rockets have had this game circled on their calendars ever since losing in Game 7 to the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night at home to get revenge on the Warriors.
The Rockets may have won that series if Chris Paul didn’t miss the last two games with an injury, both resulting in Houston losses. And the Rockets are hitting their stride right now. They have won their last two games over the Pacers by 12 and the Nuggets by 10 and they are heating up from the field. It’s probably no coincidence that they have started to play well since deciding to part ways with Carmelo Anthony.
Conversely, the Warriors are faltering right now, and there’s tension in the locker room after Draymond Green got into it with Kevin Durant a few nights back. They lost in that game in overtime to the Clippers, and then were sluggish on the second of a back-to-back in a 7-point win over the lowly Hawks. Stephen Curry remains out and is questionable to return tonight. And the Warriors will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Rockets Thursday.
|11-14-18||Blazers v. Lakers -2.5||Top||117-126||Win||100||21 h 19 m||Show|
20* Blazers/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are finally starting to gel as a team. They have reeled off three straight victories coming into this game with the Portland Trail Blazers. And now they’ve had two days off since last playing on Sunday, so they’ll be rested and ready to go at home tonight.
The Blazers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after opening the season 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS. They’ve been one of the best covering teams in the league. But that is largely due to a home-heavy schedule, and they have handled their business at home this year.
In fact, the Blazers have played nine of their first 13 games at home. They have only played four times on the road. Two of those home games were with the Lakers. They won the first meeting but lost the second. And now the Lakers get their shot at the Blazers at home this time around.
The Lakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Lakers Wednesday.
|11-14-18||Knicks +9.5 v. Thunder||103-128||Loss||-102||7 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +9.5
This is a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks and ‘sell high’ on the Thunder tonight. The Thunder are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall coming in.
But Russell Westbrook was a big part of that streak. And now Westbrook is out with an ankle injury. The Thunder have been able to win three of four without him, but two of those wins were against the Suns and Cavs, two of the worst teams in the NBA. They’ll be fortunate to win this game, let alone win it by double-digits, which is what it’s going to take to cover this massive 9.5-point spread.
We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Knicks, who are coming off their worst performance of the season. They lost 89-115 at home to the Magic on Sunday, but now will be rested and ready to go with two days off in between games. And that loss is forgivable when you consider they were coming off a tough loss in Toronto the night before and playing the second of a back-to-back. They’ll be looking to make amends tonight.
Oklahoma City is 8-23 ATS after having won two of its last three games over the past two seasons. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss. The Thunder are 30-45 ATS in their last 75 games as a favorite. Roll with the Knicks Wednesday.
|11-14-18||Heat -1.5 v. Nets||120-107||Win||100||7 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1.5
The Brooklyn Nets were one of my favorite teams to back coming into the season and through the early part of the season. But they just lost their best player in Caris LeVert to a dislocated foot, and that’s a huge blow to the team as he was one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He was their best playmaker and leading scorer.
I think the Miami Heat will be playing with an edge tonight. They have lost three straight coming in, and they’ll be looking to take out hotter frustration on the Nets tonight. They are as healthy as they’ve been all season and should put forth a big effort here.
This is the Nets’ first home game back from a long four-game road trip. I always like fading teams on their first home game back from a long trip because there are distractions at home they have to deal with. And the Nets are certainly still feeling the loss of LeVert as the life has been sucked out of the franchise now. It could linger for a few games before they recover.
The Heat are 11-2 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. The Heat are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nets are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games. Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 trips to Brooklyn. Bet the Heat Wednesday.
|11-14-18||76ers v. Magic +6.5||106-111||Win||100||7 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +6.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight after the trade for Jimmy Butler. It’s going to take some time for Butler to gel with his new team, and the 76ers will take a step back before they take a step forward with him, especially with all of these expectations from oddsmakers now.
The Magic have quietly gone 4-2 in their last six games overall. They won 117-110 in San Antonio and 115-89 in New York, while also beating the Wizards 117-108 and the Cavs 102-100 at home. They are fully healthy and playing some solid basketball right now.
The Magic are more than capable of beating the 76ers, let alone staying within 6.5 points here. They showed that in their first meeting with the 76ers in a 115-116 road loss as 12.5-point underdogs. They’ll now be out revenge from that defeat back on October 20th. The 76ers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Plays on home teams (Orland) - after two straight games where they attempted 10-plus less free throws than their opponent against an opponent that is off a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Magic Wednesday.
|11-14-18||Michigan +7.5 v. Villanova||73-46||Win||100||6 h 56 m||Show|
15* Michigan/Villanova FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +7.5
I really like the Michigan Wolverines catching 7.5 points tonight against the Villanova Wildcats. For starters, they’ll be out for revenge from their 79-62 loss to the Wildcats in the Championship Game back in April. They’ll clearly be the more motivated team in this one.
“I definitely still recall walking off the court and hearing all the Villanova fans going crazy saying, ‘Villanova national champs,” Michigan guard Jordan Poole told the Detroit News. “It was kind of sat in the back of my mind and it’s just fuel to the fire. Isaiah (Livers) and me talk about it. We want it really bad. I mean, I don’t even know how to describe it."
Villanova lost almost everyone from that team. They lost their four leading scorers all to the NBA in Jalen Brunson (18.9 PPG), Mikal Bridges (17.7 PPG), Donte DiVencenzo (13.4 PPG) and Omari Spellman (10.9 PPG). Sure, they have some talent coming in, but you simply don’t replace those four guys.
Michigan brings back three starters from their Final Four team in Charles Matthews (13.0 PPG), Zavier Simpson and Isaiah Livers, who combined with Eli Brooks to make 34 starts last year. They got two ESPN Top 100 recruits in Brandon Johns and David DeJulius to help contribute right away. They are neck-and-neck with Michigan State in terms off odds to win the Big Ten title this season, so they’re going to be good again.
Michigan rode its defense to the Final Four last season, and it will do so again. That has been on display in their first two games this season. They held Norfolk State to 44 points and 30.5% shooting and then Holy Cross to just 37 points and 30.8% shooting.
The Wolverines are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % of better than .600. Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Michigan Wednesday.
|11-13-18||Hawks +13 v. Warriors||103-110||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
15* Hawks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +13
The Golden State Warriors are just not the same team without Steph Curry. They are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games without him with their only win coming at home against the Brooklyn Nets. And they did themselves no favors by erasing a huge deficit last night to the Clippers.
Indeed, the Warriors rallied from double-digits down to force overtime against the Clippers last night, only to lose 116-121 in the extra session. And now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here, so they won’t have much left in the tank for the Atlanta Hawks tonight.
The Hawks went on the road and showed they could play with a good team from the Western Conference last time out, only losing 106-107 to the Lakers as 11-point underdogs. And now they had yesterday off and will be rested and ready to take their shot at the short-handed, tired defending champs. I know we’ll get a big effort from the Hawks tonight, but I question what kind of effort we’ll get from the Warriors without Curry.
The Hawks have played the Warriors very tough in recent meetings. In fact, each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 12 points or less. The Hawks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing 105 points or more in four straight games coming in. The Warriors are 1-12 ATS in Tuesday games over the last two seasons. Take the Hawks Tuesday.
|11-13-18||Wisconsin v. Xavier||Top||77-68||Win||100||6 h 4 m||Show|
20* Wisconsin/Xavier FS1 No-Brainer on Wisconsin PK
The Wisconsin Badgers are loaded this season. They return all five starters and 95% of their scoring from last season, led by forward Ethan Happ. He averaged 17.9 points, 8.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game last season and is one of the best big men in the country.
The Badgers were hit hard by injuries last season. But now they get three important pieces in the backcourt back from injuries in Brad Davison, D’Mitrik Trice and Kobe King. Trice and King only played in 10 games each before being sidelined last year. Also back are Khalil Iverson (8.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and 3-point specialist Brevin Pritzl (8.9 PPG).
Xavier is in rebuilding mode with head coach Chris Mack leaving for Louisville. Gone with him are each of the top three scorers from last year in Trevon Bluiett (19.3 PPG), J.P. Macura (12.9 PPG) and Kareem Kanter (10.9 PPG). Also gone are key reserves Kaiser Gates (7.2 PPG) and Sean O’Mara (6.7 PPG).
Xavier has opened 2-0, but they’ve been unconvincing home wins over IUPUI 82-69 as 18.5-point favorites and Evansville 91-85 as 20.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread in both games. That 6-point win over Evansville is particularly concerning when you consider Evansville lost 60-99 at Illinois already, an Illinois team that returns just one starter this year. Bet Wisconsin Tuesday.
|11-12-18||Giants v. 49ers OVER 43.5||Top||27-23||Win||100||99 h 35 m||Show|
20* Giants/49ers MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 43.5
The San Francisco 49ers are just 2-7 on the season while the New York Giants are 1-7. I like backing the OVER on teams with nothing to play for but pride in National TV games. It just seems as though the offenses take chances and there’s more big plays because they have nothing to lose. And the defenses aren’t prepared for it.
I was certainly impressed with the 49ers’ offense against the Raiders last week with Nick Mullens making his first start. They racked up 34 points and 405 total yards against the Raiders. Mullens went 16-of-22 for 262 yards and three touchdowns. He’s from Southern Miss, just like Brett Favre, who is one of his biggest fans. He’s out to prove that he belongs in this league.
The Giants’ offense has held them back so far. And you know that offensive-minded head coach Pat Shurmur doesn’t like what he’s seen so far. So the Giants come off a bye week, and I fully expect them to have a bunch of new wrinkles on offense. They have the two best playmakers on the field in Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley. They should be able to come through with one of their best offensive performances of the season against this 49ers defense. The 49ers are giving up 26.6 points per game while the Giants are giving up 25.6 points per game this season.
The 49ers are 6-0 OVER off a non-conference games over the last two seasons. They are combining with their opponents for 54.0 points per game in this spot. The OVER is 18-5 in Giants last 23 games after allowing more than 15 rushing yards in they previous game. The OVER is 4-0 in 49ers last four games following a win. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-12-18||Jazz -3.5 v. Grizzlies||96-88||Win||100||7 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5
The Utah Jazz are out for revenge tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies. They have already lost twice at home to the Grizzlies this season, but one of those was without Donovan Mitchell. It’s clear that the Jazz are going to want this game a lot more than Memphis will tonight.
All has been good with the Grizzlies since Mitchell returned from injury. They have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS since his return, beating the Mavs by 15 at home and the Celtics by 8 at home. And they should be able to go on the road in this spot now that they are fully healthy and beat the Grizzlies by 4-plus points.
The Grizzlies are the ones with the injury problems right now. JayMychal Green and Chandler Parsons have been out for a while, but now Omri Casspi and Dillon Brooks are also out. They are short-handed, which will make it tough for them to compete with the Jazz, who are one of the best teams in the NBA att full strength.
Memphis is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games off two consecutive home games. Utah is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games following two or more consecutive wins. The Jazz are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - revenge a loss where opponent score 100 or more points against opponent that’s off a home win scoring 110 or more are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS since 1996. Roll with the Jazz Monday.
|11-12-18||Suns +9 v. Thunder||Top||101-118||Loss||-105||7 h 43 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +9
The Phoenix Suns are showing great value as 9-point road underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. This is the perfect ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Suns after losing 10 of their last 11 games coming in. The betting public wants nothing to do with them.
It’s also the perfect ‘sell high’ opportunity on the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. But almost all of that run came with Russell Westbrook healthy and leading this team. That’s not the case any longer.
The Thunder were able to win their first two games without Westbrook, beating the Cavs on the road and the Rockets at home. But it caught up with them last time out in a 96-111 road loss at Dallas. Teams can usually play well for one or two games without their stars, but it doesn’t last. The Thunder are just an average to below average team in this league without Westbrook.
The Thunder are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Monday games. Oklahoma City is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss. Phoenix is 78-50 ATS in its last 128 games off a blowout loss by 20 points or more. The Thunder are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games after having won two of their last three coming in. Bet the Suns Monday.
|11-12-18||76ers v. Heat -2||124-114||Loss||-105||6 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2
The Miami Heat will be highly motivated for a win Monday night. They have lost two straight to Indiana and Washington coming in. And they also want revenge on the Philadelphia 76ers after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them last year.
But these aren’t the same 76ers. They traded away Dario Saric and Robert Covington for Jimmy Butler. And Butler isn’t even going to play tonight. So they are short-handed tonight, and I don’t think they can beat the Heat in their current state.
Philadelphia is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 road games after two straight games committing 7-plus turnovers more than their opponents. The 76ers are just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 10.9 points per game in the process.
Miami is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games off two or more consecutive ATS losses. The Heat are 9-0 ATS vs. good foul drawing teams who shoot 27 or more free throws per game over the last three years. The 76ers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games overall. Take the Heat Monday.
|11-12-18||Stanford v. North Carolina -18||72-90||Push||0||6 h 37 m||Show|
15* Stanford/UNC ESPN 2 No-Brainer on North Carolina -18
The UNC Tar Heels return three starters and have their best recruiting class in years, which coincidentally comes as they emerged from years of uncertainty due to the now-resolved NCAA academic issues. This team is loaded and ready to make another Final Four run this season.
Luke Maye (16.9 PPG, 10.1 RPG last year) is the Preseason ACC Player of the Year. Cameron Johnson (12.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG) and Kenny Williams (11.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG) are both back as well. Nassir Little (14.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG this season) and Coby White (11.0 PPG) are two freshmen standouts who are already helping this team right away.
UNC has been impressive in winning and covering in its first two games this season. The Tar Heels won 78-67 as 10.5-point road favorites at Wofford and 116-67 as 17.5-point road favorites at Elon. And now they have their home opener here against Stanford in what should be a great atmosphere on National TV.
Stanford is a team I’m way down on this year. A magazine I trust picked the Cardinal to finish 10th of 12 teams in the Pac-12 this season, and I can see why. They have just two returning starters. They lost three double-digit scorers from last year in Reid Travis (19.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG), Dorian Pickens (15.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG) and Michael Humphrey (10.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG). And their roster features 11 of 15 players who are freshmen or sophomores. It’s rebuilding time for head coach Jerod Haase this season.
UNC is 11-0 all-time against Stanford, including a 96-72 road victory last season. The Tar Heels have won 10 consecutive meetings against Pac-12 teams. The Cardinal are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. ACC opponents. The Tar Heels are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 vs. Pac-12 foes. UNC is 35-16-2 ATS in its last 53 home games. Stanford is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 60 points or less last game. Take North Carolina Monday.
|11-11-18||Cowboys +7 v. Eagles||27-20||Win||100||100 h 1 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +7
This is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Dallas Cowboys. Everyone saw them lose to the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football last week, and now the betting public wants nothing to do with them. But it was their own mistakes that cost them in that game, and they’re easily fixable.
For starters, the Cowboys rushed for over 50 yards in the first quarter, but then were held to just 72 yards for the entire game. That’s because they quit trying to run the ball. They were up 7-0 and instead of running it, Dak Prescott threw an interception in the end zone. It totally changed the complexion of the game. They managed to run the ball just 19 times the whole game. I think they’ll make the proper adjustments and force feed Zeke Elliott, which is when they are at their best offensively.
I know the Eagles are off a bye week, but I think that’s getting factored into the line too much. Most would say the Cowboys are on a short week, which they are, but it’s not a true short week. The Cowboys had their bye prior to the Titans game. So this will still be just their 2nd game in 21 days. They should be plenty fresh for this game.
The Cowboys will also be playing with a chip on their shoulder to redeem themselves from that poor Monday night performance. And they realize this is a must-win game, so they will be laying it all on the line. They can’t afford to fall further behind the Eagles or the Redskins in the NFC East if they want a realistic shot of winning the division. A win and they’re right back in the hunt. I have no doubt they’ll show up with a big effort Sunday night.
It’s certainly worth noting that Dallas hasn’t been more than a 3-point underdog all season to anyone. So we’re getting value here on them as 7-point dogs. And they have seemed to thrive in the role of the underdog in recent seasons, and struggle in the favorite role. Dallas is 35-20 ATS in its last 55 games off a loss by 14 points or more.
And it’s not like the Eagles are blowing anyone out this season. They are clearly in the midst of a Super Bowl hangover at 4-4 on the season. Only one of their four wins came by more than 6 points, and that was against the hapless Giants. It’s worth noting the Giants actually outgained them in that contest, and the Eagles have been outgained in five of their eight games this season. In fact, seven of the eight Eagles games have been decided by 6 points or fewer this season.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (Dallas) - in a game involving two average teams with a +/- 3 PPG differential, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 99-51 (66%) ATS since 1983. The Cowboys are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games on grass. Grass fields fit perfectly into what they want to do, which is run the football. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on grass. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Philadelphia. The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday night.
|11-11-18||Magic v. Knicks -1.5||115-89||Loss||-107||7 h 3 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -1.5
The Knicks are better than their 4-9 record, while the Magic are worse than their 5-7 record thus far. I think we are getting value on the Knicks here as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Magic because of the perception that the Magic or better. But that’s not the case.
Let’s look at point differential. The Magic are getting outscored by 7.1 points per game this season, while the Knicks are only getting outscored by 3.6 points per game. And the Magic have played a home-heavy schedule with eight of their first 12 games at home. The Knicks have played seven of their 13 on the highway.
The Magic are 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog over the last three seasons. The Knicks are 18-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. The Magic are 18-43-1 ATS in their last 61 games following a win. Bet the Knicks Sunday.
|11-11-18||Seahawks +10 v. Rams||Top||31-36||Win||100||96 h 10 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Rams NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +10
Fading the Los Angeles Rams has paid off big-time for myself and my clients of late. And I’m not going to stop now that they are 10-point home favorites here against the Seattle Seahawks. This is once again too many points as the Rams continue to be overvalued due to their 8-1 record, previously 8-0 before they finally lost to the Saints last week, and I had the Saints as my 25* NFC GOTY.
The Rams are now just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They have won just one game by more than 7 points during this stretch, and that was against the 49ers. And I certainly question the Rams’ motivation coming into this game. They are in a ‘hangover’ spot from their loss to the Rams, and a ‘look-ahead’ spot because they play the Chiefs next week. That makes this a sandwich game from them, and I’m not expecting their best effort.
The Seahawks will be playing with revenge in mind after losing a 31-33 heartbreaker at home to the Rams in Seattle in the first meeting. The Seahawks actually led that game by 7 points in the fourth quarter before getting outscored 9-0 in the final period to lose by two. At 4-4 on the season, this feels like a make-or-break game for the Seahawks as well if they want any shot of making the playoffs.
All four of Seattle’s losses this season came by 8 points or fewer, so they’ve been competitive in every game and haven’t lost yet by double-digits. And this is the biggest underdog role of Russell Wilson’s career. He’s never been a double-digit dog. And Wilson is 3-0 ATS when listed as a dog of 7.5 points or more in his career.
The Rams have some defensive problems right now. They have allowed over 27 points per game int heir last six games coming in. They haven’t been the same since losing Aqib Talib to injury, and their pass defense has suffered. The Seahawks also rushed for 190 yards on the Rams in their first meeting. The Rams are 24th in 3rd down defense. The Seahawks are 7th in 3rd down defense. The Seahawks are also 3rd in turnover differential this season, so they don’t beat themselves.
I also think the Rams could be getting tired, which is another big reason I’ve faded them so frequently of late. They are one of the few teams who have yet to have their bye week. They don’t get their bye until Week 12 after they play the Chiefs, and by then they will certainly need it. I also think the Rams have very little home-field advantage, as the Packers actually seemed like they were the home team when they played the Rams a few weeks ago.
Pete Carroll is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams who average 7.5 or more yards per attempt as the coach of Seattle. The Seahawks are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss. The Rams are once again getting way too much respect from the books this week, and it will show up on the scoreboard as Seattle has a shot to win this game outright. Bet the Seahawks Sunday.
|11-11-18||Lions +7 v. Bears||Top||22-34||Loss||-130||142 h 49 m||Show|
25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions +7
This is the perfect opportunity to ‘sell high’ on the Chicago Bears and ‘buy low’ on the Detroit Lions. This line is maxed out with Chicago -7 as they should never be a 7-point favorite over the Lions. But because the public has seen the Bears succeed lately and the Lions fail, oddsmakers have to set this line higher than it should be knowing the public will be quick to back the Bears.
Chicago is coming off back-to-back wins and covers with a 24-10 home victory over the Jets, and a 41-9 road victory at the Bills. Those are two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Jets were banged up, especially at receiver with no weapons. And the Bills gave the game away with four turnovers.
There was no more misleading final score than Chicago 41-9 victory over the Bills last week. Indeed, the Bears only managed 190 total yards in that game and were actually outgained by 74 yards by the Bills. You read that right, the Bears had less than 200 total yards yet still scored 41 points. I can’t remember the last time that happened. So we’re getting extra value here due to that misleading score.
Conversely, Detroit is coming off two straight poor performances. They lost 14-28 at home to the Seahawks and 9-24 on the road to the Vikings. Well, they had every chance to score in the red zone but committed 3 turnovers against Seattle. And that was a Seahawks team coming off a bye, so it was a favorable spot for them. And in the 9-24 loss to the Vikings the Lions played well defensively, giving up just 283 total yards. Both of those games were closer than the final scores, and both were against two of the better teams in the NFC, not the weak competition Chicago has feasted on.
Chicago’s five wins this season have come against the Seahawks, Cardinals, Bucs, Jets and Bills. Those five teams are a combined 14-27 this season, and non has a winning record. The Lions have beaten the Patriots and Packers, so they’ve proven they can play with anyone. And I think we get a big effort from them here knowing their season is on the line. A win and the Lions would pull within one game of first place in the NFC North. A loss and they would be facing an insurmountable deficit, three games behind the Bears. Detroit will be the more motivated team, hands down.
Matthew Stafford clearly loves facing the Bears, as evidenced by Detroit’s domination in this series in recent years. Indeed, the Lions are 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings. Their only loss during this stretch came by a final of 14-17 at Soldier Field. If the Bears win this game, it won’t be by more than 7 points. There is a ton of value on the Lions this week.
Plays against home teams (Chicago) who force 2.5 or more turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1983. Their turnover luck has been great this season, and they can’t keep forcing turnovers at this rate. And this just goes to show you how there’s value in fading a team coming off a 4-turnover game like the Bears had against the Bills last week.
The Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games after tailing their last two games by 10-plus points at halftime. Detroit is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 road games off a loss by 14 points or more. The Bears are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite. Take the Lions Sunday.
|11-10-18||Nets +7.5 v. Warriors||100-116||Loss||-106||10 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +7.5
The Brooklyn Nets have reeled off three straight impressive victories and still aren’t getting the respect they deserve. They won 122-97 at home over the 76ers as 4-point dogs, 104-82 at Phoenix as 2-point favorites, and 112-110 at Denver as 8.5-point dogs.
I realize this is the second of a back-to-back for the Nets, but they had two days off prior to that Denver game, so they won’t be as tired as most teams would. Plus, the Nets are arguably the deepest team in the league, so they are affected much less by these back-to-backs than most teams.
The Warriors are in a worse situation. They are going to be playing without two of the Big Four today. Stephen Curry will miss significant time after leaving last game with a groin strain. And Draymond Green is also out with a foot injury. Not to mention, both Shaun Livingston and DeMarcus Cousins are out. The Warriors don’t even have a point guard right now.
The Nets have played the Warriors very tough of late, going 4-0 ATS in their four meetings over the past few seasons, including their 114-120 home loss at 9.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Golden State. I like the fact that they are out for revenge here as well.
The Nets are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 road games, including 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the Nets Saturday.
|11-10-18||76ers v. Grizzlies -1.5||Top||106-112||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are in a very tough spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here. And they had to go to overtime to beat the Hornets 133-132 at home last night. It’s safe to say they won’t have much left in the tank for the Grizzlies here.
The Grizzlies are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. It’s amazing what they are capable of when Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are both healthy and on the floor at the same time. The Grizzlies are 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS this season.
The Grizzlies have been at their best at home, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 12.3 points per game on average. They have some of the best home fans in the NBA. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 11.7 points per game.
The Grizzlies have owned this series as well, going 10-1 SU in their last 11 meetings with the 76ers. Enough said. Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.