15* Baylor/UConn FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor +3

The UConn Huskies are down several notches from the teams that won the National Championship each of the last two seasons.  But they continue to get respect from oddsmakers that they do not deserve.

That was evident in going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their recent tournament losing outright to Memphis as 8.5-point favorites, losing outright to Colorado as 14.5-point favorites and losing outright to Dayton by 18 as 7-point favorites.

Now things have gotten worse for the Huskies as they just lost their best player in Alex Karaban (15.9 PPG) in that loss to Dayton.  He was their best returning player by far, and I think the Huskies are going to be even more lost without him moving forward.

Baylor's two losses this season came to two of the best teams in the country in Tennessee and Gonzaga.  They have been battle-tested, also beating a very good St. John's team in OT.  I think UConn in their current state is far worse than all three of those teams.  Bet Baylor Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +8.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with two of their losses coming by 7 points or fewer.  The only exceptions were road losses to three of the best teams in the NBA in the Thunder, Rockets and Grizzlies.

The Los Angeles Clippers are getting too much respect for their 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS run in their last nine games overall.  I think this is a letdown spot for them off thier upset home win over the Nuggets by 4 as 3-point dogs.

The Clippers have basically been eliminated from NBA Cup contention sitting at 1-2 in their group with a -6 point differential.  They trail the 3-0 Thunder who have a +55 point differential.

The Blazers are actually 2-1 in the same group with a legitimate shot to advance.  They will actually be the more motivated team if anything tonight.  They beat the Clippers 106-105 as 8-point road dogs earlier this season in their first meeting.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets +1

The Houston Rockets are 3-0 in NBA Cup play this season with a +55 point differential.  They are taking these NBA Cup games as seriously as anyone, and they should not be underdogs to the Sacramento Kings tonight.

The Kings are 0-3 in NBA Cup play and have been eliminated.  They won't be nearly as motivated as the Rockets as a result, and they just aren't playing well enough right now to be favored in this contest.

The Rockets are 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall with one of the losses coming by a single point.  The Kings are 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  While the Rockets are fully healthy, the Kings are without Trey Lyles and could be without Kevin Huerter tonight.

The Rockets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 8, 25 and 18 points.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Thunder OVER 221.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are tied with the Suns and Spurs at 2-1 in their group.  Point differential is very close between all three, so the Thunder will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters tonight.  And that's a big reason I'm on the OVER 221.5 between them and the Utah Jazz in this one.

The Thunder rank 11th in pace while the Jazz rank 13th, so both teams like to play fast.  The Jazz are 29th in defensive rating, so this is a very low total for a game involving Utah.  Each of Utah's last seven games have seen a total of 225 or higher.

It's also a pretty low total for a game involving Oklahoma City.  We have seen totals of 222.5 or higher in eight of their last nine games.  So this is certainly a 'buy low' on the OVER in a game involving both of these teams right now.  

The Jazz and Thunder have combined for at least 226 points in eight of their last nine meetings, making for a 8-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 221.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -4

It's time to 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers.  They sit at 4-14 SU & 5-13 ATS this season largely due to injuries to Embiid, George and Maxey.  Well they have both George and Maxey back healthy now, and they are coming off a 111-96 win at Detroit as 2-point dogs.

The 76ers are fresh and ready to go tonight.  They have had the last two days off, and they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  I'm expecting one of their best efforts of the season tonight since they are basically fully healthy now outside of Embiid and Drummond.

Speaking of health, the Hornets are extremely banged up right now, which is a big reason for their currently 5-game losing streak.  They are without three starters in Ball (31.1 PPG), Bridges (16.0 PPG) and Williams (10.4 PPG), and key bench player Mann (14.1 PPG) is out as well.  That's four of their top six scorers.

The 76ers are 7-0 SU in their last seven meetings with the Hornets with six wins by 7 points or more.  Bet the 76ers Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on St. Joseph's -5.5

I've been very impressed with the Saint Joseph Hawks this season against a very difficult schedule.  They have gone 5-2 SU this season despite already having to face Villanova, Texas Tech and Texas.  They actually upset Villanova at home and Texas Tech on a neutral.  They only lost to Texas by 9.

Princeton is 6-3 SU but 3-5 ATS this season.  The wins have not been impressive beating Iona by 1 as 12.5-point favorites and Northeastern by 3 as 7.5-point favorites.  The losses to Loyola by 5 as 2-point favorites, Wright State by 18 as 7.5-point favorites and Texas State by 3 as 6.5-point favorites are even more concerning.

Despite the easy schedule, Princeton ranks 213th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  Saint Joseph's ranks 90th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite playing the much tougher schedule.  Bet Saint Joseph's Tuesday.

20* Browns/Broncos ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 42

Bo Nix and this Denver offense are rolling right now.  The Broncos have now scored 28 or more points in five of their last eight games overall.  They are scoring at will against bad teams, and now they face another bad team in the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns are definitely an OVER team with Jameis Winston at quarterback.  He has played well for the most part but he is almost as likely to throw a costly INT that lead to easy points to the opposition as he is to throw a TD pass.  This offense has been opened up big time with Winston at QB.

It started with a 29-24 win over the Ravens as Winston threw for 334 yards and 3 TD in the win.  After a clunker with 3 INT against the Chargers, Winston threw for another 395 yards and 2 TD against the Saints.  Their defense was exposed in that game allowing 473 total yards to the Saints.  Winston led the 24-19 comeback in the snow against the Steelers last Thursday.

Injuries are a big problem for this Cleveland defense right now. They have five players on IR and another two players listed as out.  They traded DE Smith to the Lions and they just haven't been as good at getting after the QB without him as teams can focus all their attention on stopping Myles Garrett.  The Broncos are fully healthy on offense, but they just lost starting CB Riley Moss to injury last week, and I expect Winston to target his replacement.

The forecast looks great for a December game in Denver with no wind, no precipitation and temperatures approaching 40.  The way these two teams are trending with improved offenses and banged up defenses, I think this total of 42 is too low.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +7.5

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They had yesterday off while the Dallas Mavericks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 106-94 win in the altitude in Salt Lake City against the Utah Jazz last night.

Making matters worse for the Mavericks is the fact that they are very short-handed right now.  Doncic, Thompson, Marshall, Gafford and Exum are all either out or questionable.  Irving played 36 minutes last night and Washington 34.

The Blazers have been grossly undervalued in recent weeks going 5-4 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The highlights have been outright upset wins over the Timberwolves as 9-point dogs, the Timberwolves as 10-point dogs, the Hawks as 4-point dogs, the Rockets as 11.5-point dogs and the Kings as 7.5-point dogs.  They have a shot to win this game outright as well given the horrible spot for Dallas.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

20* Celtics/Cavs NBA TV No-Brainer on Cleveland +1

The Cleveland Cavaliers were knocked out of the playoffs by the Boston Celtics last year.  The Cavaliers then had their 15-0 start to the season come to an end in a 120-117 loss at Boston as 6.5-point dogs on November 19th.  It's safe to say the Cavaliers will be highly motivated for revenge when they get to host the Celtics this time around Sunday.

While the Cavaliers are almost fully healthy, the Celtics are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now with Horford, Holiday, Porzingis and White all listed as questionable for this one.  I would like the Cavaliers to win this game even if all four of those guys play, so it would only be a bonus if any of them sit.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on North Florida +16.5

I was on Nebraska +11 when they upset Creighton 74-63 on the road last time out.  I believe they are overvalued since.  I faded them with success with South Dakota +23 in their next game, and now I'm fading them again because they remain overvalued.  Plus, they have their Big Ten opener against Michigan State on deck and could be looking ahead to that contest.

The win over Creighton isn't as good as it looks on paper.  Creighton is nowhere near the team they were a year ago.  The Bluejays went on to lose 71-53 to San Diego State as 4.5-point favorites, lost to Texas A&M 77-73 as 4-point dogs and only beat Notre Dame 80-76 as 8-point favorites.  The Bluejays are 1-6-1 ATS this season now consistently failing to live up to expectations.

North Florida is 5-2 SU & 5-1 ATS this season with a couple very impressive wins.  They upset South Carolina 74-71 as 18-point road underdogs and upset Georgia Tech 105-93 as 13.5-point road dogs.  They also only lost by 13 as 15-point dogs at Georgia.  They have proven they can hang with the big boys, and they will be looking forward to the opportunity of proving it again today.  Bet North Florida Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Grizzlies UNDER 244

The Indiana Pacers and Memphis Grizzlies are both teams that like to play fast.  But this total is too high, and there's a ton of value on the UNDER.

Indiana isn't playing as fast as last season ranking 8th in pace.  A big reason they cannot play as fast is because they are short-handed right now due to injury.  They are without Nesmith and Sheppard and will likely remain without Nembhard today.

The Pacers and their opponents have combined for 236 or fewer points in four consecutive games.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for 242 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 226, 219 and 212 combined points between the Pacers and Grizzlies.  They have combined for 242 or fewer points in six consecutive meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Chargers/Falcons OVER 47.5

The Los Angeles Chargers have been an under team this season and they do have a great defense.  However, they have benefited from facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL through the first 10 weeks.  They faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis in the first 10 weeks.  Mahomes was missing many of his key weapons.

We saw what the Chargers defense was against two high-powered offenses in Cincinnati and Baltimore.  They won a 34-27 shootout and gave up 452 total yards to the Bengals, including 356 passing and 3 TD from Burrow.  They lost a 30-23 shootout with the Ravens while allowing 389 total yards, including 212 rushing.

The Chargers are showing what they are capable of offensively when they are basically fully healthy.  They put up 26 points on the Saints and weren't pressed so they took their foot off the gas late in that game.  They put up 27 points on the Browns on the road and 27 points on the Titans at home.  Those are two very underrated defenses.  They put up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Bengals, and 23 points against the Ravens.

Now the Chargers face another dead nuts OVER team in the Atlanta Falcons with a great offense and terrible, banged up defense.  The Falcons rank 8th in total offense at 361.5 yards per game and 9th at 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 25th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game and 24th in total defense at 357.1 yards per game.  

The Falcons are fully healthy on offense, but they are dealing with a plethora of injuries on defense even coming out of their bye week.  They have the worst pass rush in the NFL, so Herbert should have all day to throw it.  The Chargers will be without RB JK Dobbins, but they have been pass-heavy in recent weeks and will be even more pass-heavy in this game with the matchup in their favor against this horrid Atlanta pass defense.  The Chargers are beat up on defense missing 4 players in the secondary, LB Denzel Perryman and possibly LB Daiyan Henley.  They also have three LB's on IR.

The Chargers are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 61 points with Cincinnati and 53 with Baltimore.  The Falcons and their opponents have gone for 48 or more combined points in each of their last four home games.  Conditions will be perfect for a shootout in the dome in Atlanta.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts -2.5

The Indianapolis Colts are clinging on to their hopes of making the playoffs in the AFC.  They sit at 5-7 this season, and they are looking at this as a must-win Sunday against the New England Patriots.  I expect them to get the win and cover today in this must-win spot.

The Colts are coming off a misleading 24-6 home loss to Detroit in which they had so many big plays called back by penalties.  I think they clean that up this week, and finally get to face an opponent in the Patriots they can handle after going through the gauntlet of Detroit, NYJ, Buffalo, Minnesota and Houston in their last five games.

Now they get to take on the Patriots, who are just 3-9 SU & 4-7-1 ATS this season.  There was nothing misleading about their 34-15 loss to the Dolphins last week, other than the fact that it could have been worse as they trailed 31-0 going into the 4th quarter and scored both TD's in garbage time, including a defensive TD.  New England was outgained 373 to 269 by the Dolphins, or by 104 total yards.

Injuries are a big issue for the Patriots right now as they are as banged up as just about any team in the NFL.  They have six players on IR, two players out and another nine players questionable for this one.  Injuries are a big reason I am fading them this week.

It's easy to see why the Patriots are so banged up as they will be playing for a 13th consecutive week as they have not had their bye yet.  They are gassed, especially after playing three of their last four games on the road.  I love the spot for the Colts this week to get right against much weaker competition than they have been facing for over a month.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Texans/Jaguars OVER 43

The Houston Texans are becoming more of an OVER team in recent weeks with all of their injuries on defense, plus getting their best playmaker in WR Nico Collins back from injury.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 49 points with Detroit, 44 points with Dallas and 59 points with Tennessee.

We saw how poor a shape their defense was in last week when they allowed Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans to hang 32 points on them.  Tennessee had previously topped 20 points only once all season.  Five starters for the Texans are either questionable or out in DE Will Anderson, DT Fatukasi, LB Al-Shaair, S Ward and NB Pitre.  DE Denico Autry is also questionable.

Jacksonville is likely to get Trevor Lawrence back from injury this week, which is why this line has gone down and this total has gone up.  He got in a limited practice this week and feels good coming off a bye week.  This Jacksonville offense is night and day better with Lawrence at quarterback.  Otherwise they are pretty much fully healthy on offense coming out of their bye.

The Jaguars have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They rank 30th in scoring at 28.7 points per game allowed, dead last 32nd in total defense at 413.7 yards per game and dead last 32nd at 6.3 yards per play.  Their changed schemes this season going to almost exclusively man-to-man, and they give up a lot of big plays because they don't have the players to run that scheme.

Houston just got Nico Collins back from injury two weeks ago, and it's no surprise the Texans have come through with two of their best offensive performances of the season.  They hung 34 points on Dallas and 27 on a very good Tennessee defense.  I think they can do the heavy lifting here, and the Jaguars will do enough to get us up and OVER this 43-point total.  The Texans and Jaguars have combined for at least 44 points in seven of their last nine meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* New Mexico/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico -2.5

The New Mexico Lobos are 5-6 in Bronco Mendenhall's first season on the job.  Now they are one win away from bowl eligibility and will be highly motivated to get that all-important 6th victory.

While the Lobos are motivated, the Hawaii Warriors sit at 4-7 on the season and eliminated from bowl contention.  I don't like their mindset, especially after watching them get blasted by a mediocre Utah State team last time out.  They lost 55-10 at Utah State and allowed 580 yards to the Aggies with only 309 themselves, getting outgained by 171 yards.

They lost QB Brayden Schager late in that game to injury and he may not be able to play in this game due to injury.  Whether he plays or not, like New Mexico to win this game and cover.  I just don't think Hawaii is very good and they're definitely not in as good a frame of mind as the Lobos.

New Mexico has one of the best offenses in the country.  They score 33.8 points per game while ranking 4th in total offense at 484.5 yards per game and 7th at 7.0 yards per play.  They have tremendous balance rushing for 249 yards per game and throwing for 236 yards per game behind one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country in Dampier.

Hawaii ranks 78th against the run allowing 153 yards per game and 87th allowing 4.5 yards per carry.  Their run D has been particularly poor of late, allowing 290 rushing yards to UNLV and 321 to Utah State in their last two games.  They definitely let go of the rope against Utah State, and they will let go of it again if New Mexico gets an early lead.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Air Force -3.5

Air Force has been a different team down the stretch.  The Falcons are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They upset Fresno State 36-28 as 9.5-point home dogs, upset Oregon State 28-0 as 3-point home dogs and upset Nevada 22-19 as 3-point road dogs.

While the Falcons are improving a ton defensively, it's the fact that they have found a running game that has made them more competitive.  Air Force rushed for 344 yards on Fresno State, 270 yards on Oregon State and 318 yards on Nevada.

That's bad news for San Diego State, which cannot stop the run here down the stretch and looks to have pretty much quit.  The Aztecs are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They lost 56-24 at Boise State, 21-16 at home to New Mexico, 41-20 at UNLV and 41-20 at Utah State.

The Aztecs allowed 541 total yards including 219 rushing to Boise, then 300 rushing to New Mexico, 253 rushing to UNLV and 322 rushing to Utah State.  It's safe to say their defense cannot stop the run, and they are probably out of gas playing for a 6th consecutive week.  I give them almost zero chance of stopping this Air Force triple-option, which they haven't faced yet this season.  Bet Air Force Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on UC-Irvine -9.5

UC-Irvine is 7-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season in lined games.  The Anteaters are loaded with four returning starters, and they will be motivated to cap off a 3-0 sweep in this Western Slam round robin tournament.

Towson is 4-4 SU & 3-4 ATS this season.  Towson's four wins came against a Division II team, James Madison, Nicholls State and Morgan State.  They only won those last three games by 6 or fewer points each.  They lost by 26 at South Carolina earlier this season.

These teams have two common opponents now to compare them to due to this round robin format.  UC-Irvine beat Kennesaw State by 17 and Kent State by 12, while Towson lost to Kent State by 11 and lost to Kennesaw State by 4.  I fully expect the Anteaters to win this game by double-digits tonight.  Bet UC-Irvine Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Hawks -4.5

The Atlanta Hawks are fully healthy and playing up to their potential. After upsetting the Cleveland Cavaliers 135-124 as 9.5-point road dogs, they backed it up with an even more impressive 117-101 win as 6-point home dogs.

Now the Hawks hit the road to take on a Charlotte Hornets team that is dealing with a ton of injuries right now.  The Hornets have Ball, Mann, Bridges, Richards and both Williams either out or questionable tonight after not playing last night.  Now they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back while also short-handed, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

The Hawks can handle these back-to-back situations better than the Hornets right now because they are fully healthy and a deep team.  This price is a little short on the Hawks tonight given how they are playing, plus all the injuries the Hornets are dealing with in this back-to-back spot.  Bet the Hawks Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on NC State +3.5

I love the spot for NC State Saturday.  The Wolfpack sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They are clearly fighting to become bowl eligible here down the stretch, and I like their mental state much better than that of North Carolina right now.

The Tar Heels sit at 6-5 this season and already bowl eligible.  Mack Brown has announced he is stepping down following a ugly 41-21 loss at Boston College last week.  The Tar Heels were outgained 480-212 by the Eagles, or by 268 total yards.  It really looked like they just quit, and I don't trust many of their players to show up Saturday with their futures in limbo now.

NC State took Wake Forest, Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Duke to the wire in four tough losses here down the stretch.  They also upset Cal on the road as 9-point dogs and blasted Stanford by 31 at home as 9.5-point favorites.  Last time out they only lost 30-29 as 7.5-point dogs at Georgia Tech, which beat Miami.  They actually outgained the Yellow Jackets in that game.

NC State should be the fresher team here after playing Georgia Tech last Thursday. They get an extra two days to prep for this game, and they also had a bye prior to that GT game.  They couldn't possibly be more fresh, more prepared and more focused for a win here.  I think they way they've fought down the stretch will pay off here with an outright win over a UNC team with questionable motivation.  Bet NC State Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UAB/Charlotte OVER 60

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to UAB (3-8) and Charlotte (4-7) Saturday.

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers play fast and they play no defense.  They rank 33rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.6 seconds.  They rank 121st in scoring defense allowing 34.7 points per game.  And UAB has played much better offensively since switching to Jalen Kitna at QB, averaging 428.2 total yards per game and 33 points per game in their last five games.  The OVER is 7-1-1 in UAB's last nine games overall with 54 or more combined points in all nine games.

Charlotte is also a team with a terrible defense.  The 49ers rank 124th in scoring defense allowing 35.8 points per game.  I think both offenses will have plenty of success even though these aren't two of the best offenses in the country.  Charlotte is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall with 58 or more combined points in five of those six games.  There will be no wind or rain today in Charlotte so the forecast looks great for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State ML -125

I love the spot for the Michigan State Spartans Saturday.  They sit at 5-6 on the season and one win shy of bowl eligibility in Jonathan Smith's first season on the job.  The Spartans will be extra motivated to make a bowl and to get a win for their Seniors on Senior Day.

Rutgers is already bowl eligible at 6-5 on the season and won't be nearly as motivated.  I think it's a tough spot for the Scarlet Knights after blowing a 1-point lead in the final seconds at home in a 38-31 loss to Illinois.  They have played three straight hard-fought games the last three weeks against Illinois, Maryland and Minnesota and I question how much they'll have left in the tank here.

Michigan State has played a much tougher schedule than Rutgers this season.  The Spartans have played the 26th-ranked strength of schedule while the Scarlet Knights have played the 54th.  And Michigan State still has put up better numbers than Rutgers despite the tougher schedule.

The Spartans are dead even in yards per play differential averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.4 per play on defense.  Rutgers is has a -0.7 yards per play differential, averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense but giving up 6.1 yards per play on defense.  The Spartans are the better team, have the motivational advantage and are at home here.  Bet Michigan State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion/Arkansas State OVER 58.5

There are going to be a lot of possessions in this game between Old Dominion and Arkansas State Saturday because both play fast.  The Monarchs rank 12th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds, while the Red Wolves rank 20th snapping it every 24.0 seconds.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  Arkansas State ranks 109th allowing 31.5 points per game, 124th allowing 453.6 yards per game and 128th allowing 6.8 yards per play.  Old Dominion ranks 84th allowing 27.6 points per game, 106th allowing 410.5 yards per game and 87th allowing 5.8 yards per play.

This Old Dominion offense has been humming lately and will get whatever it wants against Arkansas State.  The OVER is 3-1 in Monarchas' last four games overall beating Georgia Southern 47-19 for 66 combined points behind 560 total yards, losing 28-20 at Appalachian State for 48 combined points despite gaining 498 yards, losing 35-32 to James Madison for 67 combined points and losing 42-35 to Marshall despite 513 total yards.

Arkansas State has gone OVER the total in three of its last five combining for 72 points with Southern Miss, 65 with Troy and 74 with Louisiana.  They did only combine for 49 points with Monroe, but the Warhawks play at the 2nd-lowest tempo in the country.

I think this game will be played freely with neither team having much to play for.  Old Dominion has been eliminated from bowl contention at 4-7.  Arkansas State has already clinched bowl eligibility at 7-4, but they have already been eliminated from Sun Belt Championship contention.  I like backing OVERS late in the season between two teams with nothing to play for.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Middle Tennessee/FIU OVER 51.5

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to Middle Tennessee (3-8) and Florida International (3-8) Saturday.

I think we'll see a shootout today with both offenses opening up the entire playbook against two suspect defenses. The forecast looks great for a shootout in Florida with temps in the 70's, only 10 MPH winds and a small chance of precipitation.

Florida International ranks 76th in scoring defense at 25.9 points per game and 73rd allowing 370.4 yards per game.  Middle Tennessee ranks 119th in scoring defense allowing 34.2 points per game, 122nd allowing 447.9 yards per game and 126th allowing 6.6 yards per play.

Middle Tennessee is 8-3 to the OVER 51.5 on the season combining for 54 or more points with its opponents in eight of its 11 games.  FIU is 7-3 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 51 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two teams with nothing to play for.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Florida/Rice OVER 53.5

The South Florida Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the entire country in tempo and by a wide margin, snapping the ball every 20.5 seconds.  They have an elite offense and a vulnerable defense.  This total of 53.5 is very low for a game involving South Florida right now.

The Bulls have topped this total themselves in their last two games.  They beat Charlotte 59-24 for 83 combined points and racked up 425 rushing yards in the process.  They beat Tulsa 63-30 last week and racked up 715 total yards.  I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas against Rice this week, either.

Rice has a very good quarterback in EJ Warner.  The Owls have really been through a gauntlet of opposing defenses here down the stretch and have gone under the total in four of their last five.  I think that has provided us value to back an OVER in a game involving Rice, which I did last week with success in a 40-14 loss to UAB with a closing total of 51.5.

Rice ranks in the top half of the country in tempo at 64th, so there are going to be a ton of possessions in this game.  Neither team has anything to play for as USF clinched a bowl last week, while Rice sits at 3-8 on the season with an interim head coach.  I love taking OVERS late in the season when nothing is at stake because it tends to favor offense over defense as both teams are loose and playing freely.

South Florida and its opponents have combined for 55 or more points in eight of its last 10 games.  Rice and South Florida combined for 71 points in their meeting last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on UTSA +7

The UTSA Roadrunners are one of the most improved teams in the country from the first half of the season until now.  After a 1-4 start, they have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0 during this stretch.

The wins have been impressive.  It started with a 38-24 home win over FAU as 4.5-point favorites.  They went on to blow a 28-point lead to Tulsa in their next game losing 46-45 as 9.5-point favorites.  They could have easily packed it in at that point, but they have responded as well as possible and that's a reflection of their head coach.

They beat Memphis 44-36 as 7-point home dogs, and that's a 10-2 Memphis team that just beat Tulane. They crushed North Texas 48-27 as 1.5-point home favorites and crushed Temple 51-27 as 17-point favorites.  Their defense is improving, but their offense is hitting on all cylinders averaging 45.2 points per game over their last five.

The spot is a terrible one for Army. The Black Knights opened 9-0 this season against one of the softest schedules in the country. They finally stepped up in class last week and got blasted 49-14 at Notre Dame.  That loss eliminated them from 12-team playoff consideration, and I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

That's especially the case with Army knowing they already have a spot in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane clinched.  They will be looking forward to that game if anything, making this a sandwich spot for the Black Knights.  I don't like their mental state coming into this one.

I also love the matchup for UTSA.  They are terrible against the pass, but that won't matter against Army.  The Roadrunners rank 9th in the country against the run allowing 100.5 rushing yards per game and 11th nationally allowing just 3.1 yards per carry.  They are equipped to stop triple-option teams like Army.  This is a game I fully expect the Roadrunners to win outright, but getting +7 with them is an absolute gift.  Bet UTSA Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Bonaventure -2.5

St. Bonaventure is 6-1 this season with its only loss coming yesterday in a 72-67 loss to Utah State as 6.5-point underdogs.  That's a very good Utah State team that is 6-0 this season with four blowout wins and a 77-69 upset win over Iowa as 3-point dogs.

Northern Iowa is just 3-3 SU this season with some very concerning results.  The Panthers lost by 20 at home to UC-Irvine and by 20 to North Texas yesterday as only 4-point dogs.  We are getting the Bonnies pretty cheap today as only 2.5-point favorites against the Panthers.  Bet St. Bonaventure Friday.

15* NBA Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +8.5

The Toronto Raptors are 13-6 ATS this season and have been very competitive in almost every game, especially here of late.  The Raptors are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with a 2-point loss at Detroit and a 3-point loss at Boston as 16.5-point dogs.

The Raptors won 119-93 as 1.5-point dogs at New Orleans last time out to just show how undervalued they really are right now.  They are catching too many points in Miami as 8.5-point dogs as well.

The Heat aren't exactly blowing out the competition.  They are 8-8 SU & 7-9 ATS this season with just three wins by more than 8 points all season.

I don't see the Heat being that motivated to win this NBA Cup game tonight.  They lost their last NBA Cup game to the Bucks at home to fall to 1-2 in NBA Cup play this season, while the Bucks improved to 3-0. That game was their last stand if they wanted to advance in the NBA Cup, but they are all but done for now.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* Nebraska/Iowa NBC No-Brainer on Nebraska +4

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have a huge weight lifted off their shoulders.  They were previously on a 0-9 run when sitting on five wins looking for their 6th and bowl eligibility the last several seasons.  They got that monkey off their back with a dominant 44-25 win over Wisconsin last week, and now I expect them to be playing loose and freely today against their hated rivals in the Iowa Hawkeyes.

The Hawkeyes were fortunate Maryland QB Billy Edwards got hurt in the 1st quarter of their 29-13 win at Maryland last week.  It changed the entire game.  That result is making Iowa a bigger favorite than they should be against Nebraska this week.  It's also a Terrapins team that looks to have quit on the season.

Nebraska has a huge advantage over Iowa at quarterback this week.  5-star QB Dillon Raiola is getting comfortable with Dana Holgorsen as his coordinator, and the Huskers racked up 473 total yards on the Badgers last week.  Iowa is down to third-string QB Jackson Stratton.  He went just 10-of-14 passing for 76 yards against Maryland last week.

Iowa needs to be able to run the football to have success.  I know Matt Rhule will do everything he can to stack the box to try and stop Kaleb Johnson, who had 35 carries against Maryland last week with a long of 13.  If they stop Johnson, I don't think Stratton is good enough to beat them.  

Each of the last six meetings between Nebraska and Iowa have been decided by one score.  And this is the best Huskers team during this stretch that the Hawkeyes will have to deal with this season.  This is not close to the best Iowa team during this stretch.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

25* MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State +6

Utah State has been competitive in five of its last six games with the lone exception being a 49-28 loss at Washington State.  They only lost by 16 to UNLV, by 5 to New Mexico, beat Wyoming by 2, crushed Hawaii 55-10 and dominated San Diego State 41-20.  

Those last two games were very impressive.  The Aggies racked up 580 total yards on Hawaii and held them to just 309, outgaining them by 271 yards.  Hawaii had been playing very well going into that game.  They racked up 488 more yards against San Diego State last week.

While Utah State sits at just 4-7 on the season, I think they'll be treating this as their bowl game.  They could have packed it in a lot sooner if they wanted to, but it just goes to show the character of this team to finish the way they have.

This is a tough spot for Colorado State.  Their dreams of making the Mountain West Championship Game were all but crushed with a 28-22 loss at Fresno State last week.  Now they no longer control their own destiny, instead they'll need to win this game and have UNLV lose at home to Nevada as a near 3-touchdown favorite.  That's not going to happen and they know it.

But Colorado State has been living on borrowed time all season.  The Rams are actually getting outgained by nearly 7 yards per game on the season.  Utah State is only getting outgained by roughly 5 yards per game on the season to compare.  These teams are much closer to even than this line would indicate, and getting +6 with the Aggies is tremendous value today.  Bet Utah State Friday.

20* Miami Ohio/Bowling Green ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5

The forecast is a big reason for this play on the UNDER.  Temps will be around 30 with 20-25 MPH winds and gusts as high as 40 MPH.  There's a lot at stake with a trip to the MAC Championship on the line for both teams, so it will be played close to the vest.

Both teams play slow.  Bowling Green ranks 118th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 29.0 seconds.  Miami ranks 120th in tempo snapping the ball every 29.0 seconds as well.  There will be very few possessions in this game, and both teams are led by their defenses.

One of the best players in the country that not many know about is Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin.  He leads the entire country in receiving with 92 receptions for 1,294 yards and 9 TD.  Fannin is questionable to play Friday and my best guess is he won't be healthy enough to play.  

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 27, 30 and 41 combined points in the last three.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Memphis/Tulane ESPN No-Brainer on Memphis +14

It's time to 'sell high' on the Tulane Green Wave.  Tulane is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It's safe to say this is the peak of the market on the Green Wave now.  They don't have a lot to play for this week as they are already locked into the AAC Championship Game against Army.  They aren't likely to make the 12-team playoff with Boise State controlling its own fate.

The Green Wave have taken advantage of an easy schedule.  Their last three games were cake walks against Navy without QB Blake Horvath, and dead Temple and Charlotte teams.  They beat North Texas by 8 and Rice by 14 in the two games prior.  And the other two wins came against UAB and South Florida.

This is a big step up in class for Tulane having to face Memphis, which also is 9-2 this season.  While the Tigers have been eliminated from AAC Championship contention, then continue to play hard beating Rice 27-20 and UAB 53-18 in their last two games.  Now they want to prove that they can beat the top dogs in Tulane, and I think the Tigers will be as motivated as they've been for any game this season.

I know Memphis' best effort is good enough to stay within two touchdowns of Tulane.  Memphis is 13-4 SU in its last 17 meetings with Tulane with only one loss by more than 14 points.  That makes for a 16-1 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Bet Memphis Thursday.

15* Giants/Cowboys FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 37.5

This total has been adjusted down too much for both teams having backup quarterbacks.  I think there's value on the OVER, especially given the circumstances with both teams playing freely with not much to play for from here on out.  It's also indoors in perfect scoring conditions in Dallas.

I'm hoping the Giants go to Drew Lock, who is their best backup QB instead of Tommy DeVito.  It looks like DeVito is going to be a game-time decision, and I'll like this OVER either way, but this total will balloon if Lock is announced the starter.

Dallas is coming off a 34-26 win at Washington with a huge offensive performance even with Cooper Rush at QB.  That game saw 60 combined points.  Rush went 24-of-32 passing for 247 yards and 2 TD.  Now reinforcements are on the way with No. 2 receiver Brandin Cooks coming off IR this week.

This Dallas defense is pathetic, and whoever is under center for the Giants is going to have success.  The Cowboys have allowed at least 26 points in six consecutive games and an average of 33.0 points per game during this stretch.  The Cowboys are also allowing 37.4 points per game at home this season.

The Giants came out of their bye and laid an absolute egg defensively, allowing 30 points and 450 total yards to the Bucs.  It looks like they have pretty much quit on that side of the football.  I don't think either of these defenses can be trusted with a total of 37.5, which is about as low as you'll ever see for an indoor game in today's NFL.  

The Cowboys and Giants have combined for at least 39 points in nine of their last 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Bears/Lions CBS No-Brainer on OVER 48

The Detroit Lions rank 1st in the NFL in scoring offense at 32.7 points per game.  While they are loaded on offense, they are vulnerable on defense without DE Aidan Hutchinson and LB Alex Anzalone, arguably their two best defensive players.  They are also without starting CB Carlton Davis III this week.

The Chicago Bears have been a different offense since firing their coordinator.  They put up 391 total yards on the Packers in their first game with the new coordinator.  They put up 27 points and 398 yards on the Vikings last week in their second game without them.  This offense is trending up, and the Bears now have the firepower to go score for score with the Lions, which they are going to be forced to do.

The Bears and Lions have combined for 51, 57 and 61 points in three of their last four meetings.  It's going to be perfect conditions for a shootout indoors in Detroit.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Thunder/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City ML -135

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 7 days with their lone result during this stretch being a 130-109 blowout as 3.5-point favorites at Sacramento.

The Golden State Warriors are broken since losing De'Anthony Melton (10.3 PPG) to a season-ending ACL injury.  He was huge for them off the bench in giving Stephen Curry (22.4 PPG) a breather.  Now Curry injured his knee last game and is highly questionable to play tonight.  My best guess is the Warriors will be cautious and sit him.  Jonathan Kuminga (13.3 PPG) is also questionable with an illness.

The Warriors are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only beat a depleted Pelicans team by 4 as 10.5-point favorites.  They lost outright by 10 as 3.5-point favorites at San Antonio.  And they lost outright by 8 as 13-point home favorites against a depleted Nets team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The rest spot is much worse for the Warriors, who will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  The Thunder should be bigger favorites tonight, and this line will balloon if Curry is ruled out.  I like OKC to win the game either way.  Bet the Thunder on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +10.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Orlando Magic tonight.  The Magic are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have only been favored by double-digits once during this stretch, so the price is getting very high to back them now.

That double-digit favorite role came against the lowly Washington Wizards, who the Bulls just beat 127-108 last night.  And because of the blowout nature of that win, the Bulls weren't pressed to play their starters big minutes.

The Bulls should still be pretty fresh tonight, especially since they had two days off prior to that win over the Wizards.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 4 days.  This line is adjusted up too much for the Bulls playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and we'll take advantage.  

In the last nine meetings between Chicago and Orlando, the Bulls have only lost once by more than 9 points.  This line is inflated.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Miami Heat -3

The Miami Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But that's the only reason this line is only Miami -3 over Charlotte.  I think this number is adjusted down too much for the spot for Miami.

I think the Heat will come back motivated from their 3-point loss to the Bucks last night.  The Heat should still be pretty fresh when you consider this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days.  They are also fully healthy right now with a pretty deep bench, so they can handle these back-to-backs better than most.

Speaking of health, the Charlotte Hornets will be without four of their top six scorers in Bridges (16.0 PPG), Mann (14.1 PPG), Richards (11.0 PPG) and Williams (10.4 PPG).  It did not go well for the Hornets last time out losing 95-84 at home to the Orlando Magic, who were without Suggs and Banchero.

The Heat own the Hornets going 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  That domination should continue tonight given how short-handed Charlotte is right now.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee +13

The Milwaukee Panthers are loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that won 20 games last year.  The Panthers are 5-2 SU this season with their two losses coming early.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS since and will be looking to make a statement at UCF tonight.

Even though the Panthers returned four starters, their top three scorers are actually Division 1 transfers as Bart Lundy did a great job in the portal.  All three have either played for him before or for his assistant.  McKee (16.0 PPG), Fulks (14.7 PPG) and Stillwell (12.7 PPG) are all fitting in nicely.

UCF is 4-2 SU & 2-4 ATS this season.  The Knights lost to the two best teams they played in Wisconsin by 16 and LSU by 9 on neutrals.  They did beat Texas A&M by 3 at home, but they haven't been able to get margin on anyone.  They only beat Purdue-Fort Wayne by 7, FAU by 6 and Tennessee Tech by 11.  They haven't won a game yet by more than 11 points.  Bet Milwaukee Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on South Dakota +23

I was on Nebraska +11 when they upset Creighton 74-63 on the road last time out.  But now I'm fading the Huskers here tonight because I think they are overvalued off that win, and it's a huge letdown spot for them off that big in-state rivalry game that takes place every year.

The win over Creighton isn't as good as it looks on paper.  Creighton is nowhere near the team they were a year ago.  The Bluejays went on to lose 71-53 to San Diego State as 4.5-point favorites last night.  They are 1-5 ATS this season now consistently failing to live up to expectations.

I've been impressed with South Dakota this season.  The Coyotes are 6-2 SU with their lone losses coming by 19 at Iowa and by 9 at Southern Indiana.  I backed them in that game against Iowa, which I have power rated similarly to Nebraska.  

Iowa was only a 19-point closing favorite at home against South Dakota, and Nebraska is now a 23-point home favorite.  There's clearly value on the Coyotes given the letdown spot for the Huskers.  Bet South Dakota Wednesday.

15* Lakers/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They are rested and motivated and getting healthy.  They have been off since November 20th, getting the last five days off.  This extra rest is allowing both Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal to return from injury tonight, so the Suns are at full strength for basically the first time this season.

It's great timing for this NBA Cup game against the Los Angeles Lakers, the team that is in 1st place in their group at 2-0 this season with a +11 point differential.  The Suns are 1-1 with a -8 differential, so this is a must-win for them if they want to advance out of group play.  The Lakers could actually afford a loss, but obviously they don't want to.  I just think the motivation is higher for the Suns given the current standings.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Getting the Suns as only 2-point home favorites tonight given the situation is a gift.  Bet the Suns Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Miami -2

The Miami Heat are fully healthy and rested right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 8 days and will be motivated for a NBA Cup win tonight.

The Heat will be extra motivated considering the Milwaukee Bucks are 2-0 with a +26 point differential in their group, while the Heat are 1-1 with a +11 point differential.  They have a chance to catch and even surpass the Bucks in their group if they win by 15-plus.  But at the very least they have to win this game if they want to get out of their group.

The Bucks won't be nearly as motivated knowing they are sitting pretty in 1st place in their group.  Of course they don't want to lose, but I don't believe they'll be playing with the same type of edge that the Heat will be given the standings.  

This has been a good matchup for the Heat as they are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Penn State +2

Penn State will be one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten this season.  They went 16-17 (9-11 Big Ten) in Mike Rhoades' first season on the job last season.  Rhoades brings back three starters from that team and added help on the wing and up front.

The Nittany Lions are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS this season beating Binghamton 108-66 as 20.5-point favorites, UMBC 103-54 as 22.5-point favorites, St. Francis PA 92-62 as 31.5-point favorites, VA Tech 86-64 as 7.5-point favorites, IPFW 102-89 as 17-point favorites and Fordham 85-66 as 16-point favorites.  As you can see, the Nittany Lions have won all six of their games by at least 13 points and by an average of nearly 30 points per game.  

Returning starters Hicks (15.8 PPG, Baldwin (15.7 PPG, 7.7 APG) and Kern (11.8 PPG) have made a big impact.  Returning role players Dunn (7.5 PPG) and Johnson (11.5 PPG) have stepped up their games.  And NIU transfer Niederhauser (12.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG) has been impressive.

Penn State should not be an underdog to Clemson, which brought back three starters but only has three double-digit scores to this point.  I think the Tigers are getting too much respect for their win over San Francisco yesterday.  They lost by 13 at 4-point dogs at Boise State in their toughest game this season, and this one won't be any easier.  Bet Penn State Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Thunder/Kings OVER 223.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder play fast racing 7th in the NBA in pace.  They will be looking to run even more tonight considering how fresh they'll be after having the last four days off.

The Sacramento Kings have gotten back to healthy with the exception of Malik Monk.  They have gone under the total in three straight games, which I think is what is keeping this total lower than it should be.  They had gone over the total in their previous three games.

The Kings and Thunder have combined for at least 231 points in six of their last eight meetings.  This is a very low total involving these two teams tonight at 223.5.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Auburn/Iowa State ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 145.5

Auburn and Iowa State are two of the best teams in the country.  But I think what makes both of them so great is their ability to make their opponents work hard for every point they get on offense.

Auburn ranks 363rd in average possession length defensively as opponents only attempt a shot every 19.6 seconds.  They are also 5th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Iowa State ranks 364th in average possession length defensively as opponents only attempt a shot on them every 20 seconds.  They are also 4th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

This is a neutral court with uncommon shooting backgrounds and I trust that defense will win out in this game between two of the nation's top teams.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Chargers OVER 47.5

This Baltimore offense is one of the best in NFL history.  The Ravens rank 2nd in scoring at 30.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 430.1 yards per game and 1st at 7.2 yards per play.  Lamar Jackson has more weapons than he has ever had with Flowers, Bateman, Johnson, Andrews, Likely, Hill and Agholor, and he has one of the best RB's the NFL has ever seen in Derrick Henry, who has already rushed for 1,185 yards and 13 TD.

The weakness of Baltimore is their pass defense.  They rank dead last (32nd) in the NFL allowing 284.5 passing yards per game and 26th at 7.2 yards per attempt.  LB Roquon Smith suffered a hamstring injury against the Steelers last week and did not practice Friday and may not play in this game.  Nickel CB Arthur Maulet is out, and NT Travis Jones is questionable.

The Chargers have been an under team this season and they do have a great defense.  However, they have benefited from facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL.  They have faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston, Will Levis and Joe Burrow this season.  Mahomes was missing many of his key weapons.

We saw what the Chargers defense was last week against a high-powered offense in the Cincinnati Bengals.  They won a 34-27 shootout and gave up 452 total yards to the Bengals, including 356 passing and 3 TD from Burrow.  I think they'll get shredded by this Baltimore offense as well.

The Los Angeles Chargers are showing what they are capable of offensively when they are basically fully healthy, which they are right now.  They put up 26 points on the Saints and weren't pressed so they took their foot off the gas late in that game.  They put up 27 points on the Browns on the road and 27 points on the Titans at home.  Those are two very underrated defenses.  They put up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Bengals, who have a similarly poor defense to Baltimore.

The OVER is 9-2 in all Baltimore games this season with 45 or more combined points in 10 of the 11, and 49 or more combined points in eight of those.  They have gone for 51 or more combined points with their opponents in six of their last seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Atlanta Hawks are in a good spot tonight coming in on two days' rest and coming off two straight blowout road losses to the Bulls and Warriors.  The Hawks are now fully healthy for basically the first time all season and this is a good team to 'buy low' on moving forward because of it.

This is a terrible spot for the Dallas Mavericks and the main reason for this play.  The Mavericks are coming off a 123-118 (OT) road loss at Miami last night.  They will now be playing not only the 2nd of a back-to-back off an OT game, but their 3rd road game in 4 days after playing in Denver on Friday.

Kyrie Irving played 39 minutes and PJ Washington 39 minutes last night.  What makes this situation even more difficult for the Mavericks is the fact that they are without their best player in Luka Doncic.  I'll gladly take the rested, healthy Hawks over the tired, short-handed Mavericks tonight.  Bet the Hawks Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Ohio State -24

Ohio State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and absolutely blowing through the competition.  They upset Texas on a neutral and lost to Texas A&M on the road.  But they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home beating Youngstown State by 34 as 19-point favorites, Evansville by 50 as 24.5-point favorites and Campbell by 44 as 25.5-point favorites.

Now they face a rebuilding Green Bay Phoenix team with a first-year head caoch who are 2-4 with all four losses by 13 points or more.  The two wins came against Western Illinois and SIU-Edwardsville.

But it's the loss to Evansville, a common opponent of Ohio State, that has me wanting to fade the Phoenix.  Green Bay lost 98-81 at Evansville while Ohio State beat Evansville 80-30.  Enough said.  Bet Ohio State Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -3

The Miami Heat have been off since November 18th.  They have had five days of rest in between games and should come through with one of their best efforts of the season today as a result.  They are also fully healthy for basically the first time all season.

The Mavericks were able to upset the short-handed Denver Nuggets in an NBA Cup game on Friday on the road.  That sets them up for a letdown spot here, and I just think it's asking a lot of them to win consecutive road games here without Luka Doncic (28.1 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 7.6 APG).  Bet the Heat Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +2

The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a 113-98 win over the Brooklyn Nets at home as 3-point favorites.  They just got Tyrese Maxey back from injury and he is quickly becoming their best player and put up 26 points in the win.  The 76ers have found a gem in Jared McCain, who has now scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.

Now the 76ers host a Los Angeles Clippers team that remains without Kawhi Leonard, and one that just lost Norman Powell (23.3 PPG, 48.7% 3-pointers) to injury.  Powell is among the favorites to win Most Improve Player.

The Clippers are getting a lot of respect now as road favorites following a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS run in four consecutive home games including upset wins over the Warriors, Magic and Kings.  I think this is where there come back down to reality without Powell, and the wrong team is favored here.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver Broncos -4.5

The Denver Broncos are rolling right now going 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  One of those losses was a game they deserved to win in a 16-14 loss at Kansas City as 7-point dogs in a game they had won, but had their short FG blocked on the final play.  They also lost to the Ravens on the road and the Chargers, who were coming off their bye week and were a lot healthier at the time.  All of those losses have aged well.

The Broncos are crushing the teams they are supposed to beat, like these Las Vegas Raiders.  They upset the Bucs by 19, upset the Jets as 8.5-point road dogs, crushed the Raiders by 16 at home, crushed the Saints by 23 on the road, topped the Panthers by 14 at home and buried the Falcons by 32 at home last week.

While the Broncos are almost fully healthy right now and motivated to make the playoffs, the Raiders are in limbo right now and not healthy at all.  The Raiders are 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with their six losses coming by an average of 13.2 points per game.

The Raiders have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL, they are without their top two RB's in Mattison and White, they are missing two starters along the offensive line, and they could be without three starters in the secondary.  It's not going to get any better this week against the Broncos.  I expect this to feel like a home game for Denver as their fans will travel well, and Raiders fans don't have a lot to be excited about right now.

While Bo Nix is getting a lot of the headlines and is playing very well behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, it's this Denver defense that is the backbone.  The Broncos rank 3rd in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game and 3rd at 289.4 yards per game.  They are also 1st allowing 4.9 yards per play.  Their task will be easy this week because the Raiders' only real threat on offense is TE Brock Bowers, who has 70 receptions for 706 yards this season.  They will scheme up a way to take him out, and Denver should win in another blowout.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Colts OVER 50.5

The Detroit Lions are really an OVER team as currently constructed.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL but one of the worst defenses, it's just that that defense hasn't been exposed yet due to scheduling.  I think this is where their defense gets exposed and they'll have to try and keep up with the Colts in a shootout.

No question the Lions are loaded on offense ranking 1st in scoring at 33.6 points per game and 3rd in total offense at 394.7 yards per game.  They're almost fully healthy on offense.  But the same cannot be said for their defense, which is missing their best player in DE Aidan Hutchinson and now arguably their most important player in LB Alex Anzalone, who will miss most of the season after suffering an injury against the Jaguars last week.  Anzalone is the one that relays all the plays on defense.

Anthony Richardson returned at QB last week for the Colts and played one of the best games of his career. He went 20-of-30 passing for 272 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for two scores, including the game-winner when they had to have it trailing by 5 on their final drive.  They beat the Jets 28-27 for 55 combined points in a shootout.

The Lions play a lot of man-to-man defense, and Richardson should kill man-to-man with his ability to run the ball.  Not having Anzalone out there to chase him down is a big blow against a dual-threat like Richardson.  I think the Colts are capable of keeping up with the Lions in a shootout as both teams will get their points in perfect conditions indoors.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in Lions last seven games overall with 56 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +8.5

This is the ultimate 'sell high' spot on the Detroit Lions.  They are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  I successfully faded them in their lone non-cover during this stretch backing the Texans as 3.5-point home underdogs in a 3-point loss two weeks ago.

But Detroit blasted Jacksonville last week 52-6 in a game where it looked like the Jaguars simply quit.  Mac Jones was the starting QB too for the injury-ravaged Jaguars.  Teams off a win by 35-plus points who are a favorite or a dog of +3 or less the next week like the Lions are just 17-34-1 ATS since 2021.  This trend just goes to show how teams off a blowout win are overvalued the next week.

The Lions have been getting pretty lucky as far as facing teams are the right time here of late.  The Titans were starting Mason Rudolph, the Packers were starting a hobbled Jordan Love who gifted them a pick-6, the Texans were missing Nico Collins and Will Anderson which are two of their three best players, and the Jaguars were missing Trevor Lawrence among others.

I think this is where Detroit meets its match.  This is a very healthy Indianapolis Colts team that is motivated to make the playoffs sitting at 5-6 and just one game behind the Broncos for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC.  Anthony Richardson returned at QB last week and played one of the best games of his career.

He went 20-of-30 passing for 272 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for two scores, including the game-winner when they had to have it trailing by 5 on their final drive.  Their defense is playing much better in recent weeks now that they're healthy, and they only allowed 10 first down for the entire game to the Jets.  It was actually a misleading 28-27 final as 4-point road underdogs.  I was on the Colts last week as well.

The Colts play more zone defense than any team in the NFL.  Jared Goff kills man-to-man and struggles against zone.  Goff has a 13-to-0 TD/INT ratio this season against teams that play mostly man, and a 7-to-9 TD/INT ratio against teams that play mostly zone.

The Lions don't have a very good defense without Aidan Hutchinson and now without their green dot in LB Alex Anzalone, who is one of the most underrated linebackers in the league.  They lost him last week against the Jaguars and he won't return until the end of the season.  They play a lot of man-to-man defense, and Richardson should kill man-to-man with his ability to run the ball.  Not having Anzalone out there to chase him down is a big blow against a dual-threat like Richardson.  

I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts win this game outright, but getting more than 7 points with them at home is absurd.  The Colts are 8-3 ATS in all games this season and have just one loss by more than 8 points all season, and that was a misleading 10-point loss to Buffalo that was aided by a pick-6 and four turnovers overall, including 3 interceptions from Joe Flacco.  Richardson is 6-1 ATS as a starting QB this season.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers +11

I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week.  They are coming off a bye, and first-year head coaches benefit the most from byes.  The Panthers needed the bye because they were one of the most banged up teams in the NFL.  But reinforcements are on the way now coming out of the bye.

It looks like the Panthers should be getting back WR Adam Thielen, RB Jonathan Brooks, DE Jadeveon Clowney, LB DJ Wonnum, LB DJ Johnson and DE LaBryan Ray among others.  The Panthers won outright as 7-point home dogs over the Saints and outright as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral to the Giants in Germany going into their bye.

Now they should be motivated coming out of their bye with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs coming to town.  The spot is a bad one for the Chiefs, who suffered their first loss of the season 30-21 on the road to the Bills last week.  That ended their perfect season, and I think there will be a hangover effect here with the type of loss that could beat a team twice.

The Chiefs were living on borrowed time as it is.  They are 7-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  Eight of their nine wins came by 10 points or fewer as well.  They were just able to mask a lot of their problems by coming up clutch late in games.  Their luck has run out, and asking them to now go on the road again and beat a rejuvenated Panthers team coming off a bye is asking too much.

Mahomes is 0-3-1 ATS in his career as a double-digit road favorite.  He has struggled throughout his career covering spreads of 7 or more as the Chiefs just have a knack of playing to their level of competition and playing in close games.  That's evidenced by the fact that nine of their 10 games this season have been decided by 10 points or less.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Patriots/Dolphins OVER 45

The New England Patriots are becoming more of an OVER team with Drake Maye at quarterback.  He is showing the Patriots made the right move by drafting him No. 3 overall and New England fans have a lot to look forward to.  His dual-threat ability and his deep ball make this Patriots offense a lot more potent than when Jacoby Brissett was running the show.

Maye is completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,236 yards with a 9-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 260 yards and a score on 9.3 per carry.  He kept the Patriots in the game last week in a 28-22 loss to the Rams.  The Rams put up 402 total yards on this banged up Patriots defense, but the Patriots got 382 total yards in a shootout.

This Miami offense has taken off since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury.  He has led them to 27 points against the Cardinals, 27 against the Bills, 23 against the Rams and 34 against the Raiders.  The Dolphins profile much more as an OVER team as long as Tua is under center.  He'll be up against a New England defense that has six starters listed on the injury report and another six listed out or on IR.

The forecast in Miami looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  This total of 45 is too low for the makeup of these two teams currently.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Washington Commanders -10

I love the spot for the Washington Commanders Sunday.  They are coming off a mini bye week after playing the Eagles last Thursday.  That was their second consecutive loss after falling by 1 to the Steelers.  They will be motivated coming out of their mini-bye, and they will be a lot healthier, including QB Jayden Daniels.

Now the Commanders get a team they should handle in the hapless Dallas Cowboys.  This is a Cowboys team that just isn't very good for starters, and one that has been decimated by injuries this season as well.  The Cowboys are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost 47-9 as 3.5-point home dogs to the Lions, 30-24 as 5.5-point road dogs to the 49ers, 27-21 as 3.5-point road dogs to the Falcons, 34-6 as 7-point home dogs to the Eagles and 34-10 as 7-point home dogs to the Texans.  

They even scored a garbage TD late against the 49ers to make that score look closer than it was, and a garbage score against the Falcons late to make that score closer than it was. The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott to injury in that loss to the Falcons to boot.  We saw what this team looks like without Dak at QB, and it's not pretty. 

That 34-6 loss to the Eagles was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Cowboys managed just 146 total yards and 11 first downs against the Eagles.  They had 49 net passing yards on 26 attempts, averaging less than 2 yards per attempt.  I don't think I've ever seen passing numbers in the NFL that are that poor.  Rush had more success against the Texans, but it was a lot of dink and dunk when they were trailing big.  He's just not a NFL starting QB.

The injuries just keep piling up for the Cowboys.  They will be without TE Jake Ferguson, who suffered a concussion against the Texans.  They will be without RG Zack Martin, and several other key players are questionable in WR Brandin Cooks, LG Tyron Smith, LB Nick Vigil and CB Trevon Diggs.

After facing two of the best defenses in the league in the Steelers and Eagles, things should come a lot easier for Daniels and this Washington offense against one of the worst defenses in the league in the Cowboys.  Dallas ranks 31st in scoring defense allowing 29.3 points per game.  It is 30th allowing 6.1 yards per play.  The Cowboys have now allowed at least 27 points in five consecutive games.  Washington will get to at least 27, and that will be enough to cover this 10-point spread.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +6

The New York Giants have new life coming out of their bye week with a new QB in Tommy DeVito.  We saw him give them a spark last season going 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in his six starts, including 4-0 ATS against the four teams that allowed the most points per game that he faced.

He will be up against a leaky Tampa Bay defense that ranks 27th in scoring at 26.6 points per game, 30th in total defense at 389.3 yards per game and 29th at 6.1 yards per play.  The Giants will have a lot more success on offense than they are getting credit for this week.

On the other side of the ball, the strength of this Giants defense is their pass rush.  They will be up against a shaky Tampa Bay offensive line that will likely be without their best player in LT Tristan Wirfs.  Baker Mayfield will be under duress all game. The Giants are almost fully healthy coming out of their bye week and will be getting some key players back to boot.

The Giants are undervalued due to their poor 2-8 SU record.  But they are 1-5 SU in games decided by one score.  They have been unfortunate in close games.  If they lose this game, it will be by one score, so there's some serious value in getting +6 with them at home this week.  This line was Tampa Bay -3 on the lookahead which is where I believe its should be, so we are getting 3 full points of value here.  Don't be the surprised if the Giants win this game outright.

Baker Mayfield is 9-13 SU & 9-13 ATS in his career coming off extended rest, including 3-8 SU on the road.  Todd Bowles is 9-17 SU on extended rest in his coaching career, including 2-8 SU on the road.  Brian Daboll is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS off a bye as the coach of the Giants.  Mayfield is 1-4 ATS coming off a bye, including 0-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers +12.5

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after losing 116-88 in a NBA Cup game last night to the Rockets, who were motivated.  I don't think the Rockets will be nearly as motivated tonight to beat this team twice in two days.

The Blazers are in the much better rest spot with both teams playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. This is just the 4th game in 11 days for the Blazers, while it will be the 5th game in 7 days and the 9th game in 14 days for the Rockets.

The Blazers also shot just 33% last night including 11-of-43 (25.6%) from 3-point range.  I can't see them shooting nearly that poorly again in the rematch.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Baylor -7.5

The Baylor 'buy' signs are high right now.  I've been riding this team in their last few games and will continue to ride them this week. The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their offense is unstoppable right now averaging 45.8 points per game and 551 yards per game in their four consecutive wins and covers.

The fact of the matter is Houston cannot keep up with Baylor.  The Bears will get their points.  Houston has been held to 17 points or fewer in six of its 10 games this season.  The Cougars rank 133rd in scoring offense at 14.0 points per game.  That is absolutely atrocious in today's college football.

I think the Cougars hit an all-time low last week losing 27-3 to Arizona.  That was a previously dead Arizona team that couldn't stop anyone.  They had allowed 56 points to UCF in their previous game and held Houston to 3.  Their defense is decimated by injuries.

Houston has been able to hang with teams that play slow, defensive-minded football this season.  They haven't been able to hang with the better offenses they have faced that are more up-tempo like Baylor.  The Bears will test them in a big way as they rank 11th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.  The Cougars won't be able to keep up.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Total DOMINATOR on Boise State/Wyoming UNDER 57.5

This is strictly a play on the weather.  There is expected to be 20 MPH sustained winds in Laramie Saturday night with gusts up to 40 MPH.  Wind affects scoring more than any other weather element, and these teams are going to be forced to keep the ball on the ground in a defensive battle that keeps the clock moving for four quarters.

Wyoming will be able to stack the box to try and stop RB Ashton Jeanty without worry that Boise State will try to throw it much.  And I have no doubt Boise State is going to be able to stop this hapless Wyoming offense.

The Cowboys rank 119th in scoring offense at 20.4 points per game, 118th in total offense at 326.8 yards per game and 123rd at 4.9 yards per play.  Boise State ranks 13th in the country allowing 104.7 rushing yards per game and 17th at 3.3 per carry.  Wyoming is going to need to score at least 20 points for us to lose this UNDER, and I just don't seem them getting to 20.  

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 39 or fewer combined points in all five meetings.  Boise State and Wyoming have combined for 48 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Colorado/Kansas FOX No-Brainer on Kansas +3

Kansas is one of the best 4-6 teams in the history of college football. Kansas is 1-5 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.  The other was a misleading 11-point loss to TCU.  The Jayhawks have had two bye weeks in the last month and are fresh and showing what they are capable of now.

Kansas is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games with the lone loss coming 29-27 as 9.5-point underdogs at Kansas State in a game they deserved to win.  They returned from their first bye with a 42-14 dismantling of Houston as 5-point home favorites.  They came back from their 2nd bye and upset Iowa State 45-36 as 2-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium.  And last week they handed BYU their first loss in a 17-13 road win as 3-point dogs.

This Kansas offense has taken off behind QB Jaylon Daniels and RB Devin Neal.  They put up 42 points and 467 total yards on a very good Houston defense.  They put up 27 points and 401 total yards on a very good Kansas State defense.  And most impressive yet was the 45 points and 532 total yards they put up against arguably the best defense in the Big 12 in Iowa State.

Now the Jayhawks have their sights set on knocking Colorado off from the top of the Big 12 ranks.  Like BYU, Colorado has benefited from close wins and a soft schedule. The Buffaloes have managed to not have to face the top three teams in the Big 12 outside themselves.  They needed a hail mary to beat Baylor, and they lost by 3 at home to Kansas State, which is arguably the best Big 12 team they have faced this season.

Kansas can get whatever it wants against this Colorado defense.  And the Jayhawks have two of the top CB's in the Big 12 to match up with Travis Hunter and these Colorado receivers.  I like the matchup for the Jayhawks, who will have a big home-field advantage after outscoring Iowa State and Houston a combined 87-50 in their last two home games.  Bet Kansas Saturday. 

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on ECU/North Texas OVER 73

Both East Carolina and North Texas are dead nuts OVER teams.  They both have elite offenses, play fast, and play little to no defense.  North Texas ranks 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  East Carolina ranks 5th at 21.8 seconds between snaps.  You would be hard-pressed to find another game this season that is going to see more plays and possessions than this one.

The OVER is 5-0 in East Carolina's last five games overall with 63 or more combined points in all five.  Their offense is really humming right now putting up 56 against Temple, 49 against Florida Atlantic and 38 against Tulsa the last three weeks.  They have allowed at least 31 points in four of their last five games, and the only game they didn't was because FAU lost its starting QB early.

North Texas is 8-2 OVER in all games this season.  The Mean Green have gone for at least 67 combined points in seven of their 10 games this season.  They have allowed 45, 52 and 48 points in three of their last four games, and I suspect East Carolina will get into the 40's in this one.  The Mean Green rank 126th in total defense at 458.1 yards per game and 126th in scoring at 35.7 points per game.

The forecast looks good for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 12 MPH winds and no precipitation Saturday in Denton, TX.  This will be one of the most entertaining games of the season with these teams matching each other score for score for 60 minutes in a fast-paced game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +3

This is going to be a back and forth game with two of the Top 5 offenses in the country in terms of tempo.  But I think the difference is East Carolina will get one or two more stops than North Texas will because their defense is much better.

East Carolina's offense has taken off since switching quarterbacks to Katin Houser.  He has thrown for at least 269 yards in every game with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio in his last four games.  He led ECU to a 56-35 win over Temple, a 49-14 win over FAU and a 38-31 win at Tulsa.

Now Houser and company get to go up against one of the worst defenses in the country in North Texas.  The Mean Green rank 126th in scoring defense allowing 35.7 points per game and 126th in total defense allowing 458.1 yards per game.  Compare that to ECU, which allows 393.8 yards per game and 27.2 points per game, and it's easy to see that the Pirates have the much better defense in this one.

North Texas allowed 48 points to UTSA, 45 to Tulane and 52 to Memphis in three of its last four games coming in.  I don't think the Mean Green are all that motivated for a 6th win here knowing they can get it against lowly Temple next week to clinch bowl eligibility.  ECU has been rolling since making a coaching chance and the Pirates have all the momentum now.  The wrong team is favored in this game today.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

20* BYU/Arizona State ESPN No-Brainer on Arizona State -3

I faded BYU with success with Kansas +3 last week.  I'm fading the Cougars again this week as I still believe they are overvalued due to their fraudulent 9-1 record.  BYU is 4-1 in games decided by 6 points or less.  

They have been fortunate in close games all season, including a 1-point win over a bad Utah team and a 3-point win over a bad Oklahoma State team.  They finally had their luck run out last week, coming up a yard short in the red zone at the end of the game in a 17-13 loss to Kansas.  I think that's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

While BYU just had the wind taken out of their sails, Arizona State has all the momentum right now.  The Sun Devils have won three straight following their bye week with a 21-point win at Oklahoma State and a 4-point home win over UCF without star RB Cam Skattebo.

But Skattebo returned from injury last week to help lead the 24-14 upset at Kansas State.  The Sun Devils jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back.  Skattebo had 117 yards from scrimmage and averages 152 scrimmage yards per game this season.  While Skattebo gets all the credit for this team, it's QB Sam Leavitt who has made the biggest leap here down the stretch and his playing his best football of the season.  

Leavitt has a 9-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.  He is the reason the Sun Devils control their own destiny now in getting to the Big 12 Championship.  This team is playing with a massive chip on their shoulder after being picked to finish last by the media in the offseason.  That chip will remain squarely on their shoulder this week.

Arizona State wants to run Skattebo to set up the play-action for Leavitt.  They average 190.5 rushing yards per game.  BYU's weakness is stopping the run.  The Cougars allow 139.2 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry, which ranks 75th in the country.  BYU is balanced but leans on the pass more, and ASU is good in both departments.  They allow just 3.8 yards per rush attempt which ranks 47th and 6.3 yards per pass attempt which ranks 31st.

I think Arizona State has the better defense and their home-field advantage will be huge in this one as it should be one of the best atmospheres for a game in Tempe in years with what's at stake.  It's worth more than what is being factored into this line.  The Sun Devils should be more than 3-point home favorites here.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah State -4

The Utah State Aggies (3-7) and San Diego Aztecs (3-7) are both eliminated from bowl contention.  But these teams are trending in opposite directions, and I trust Utah State to show up a lot more than I do San Diego State.  Plus, this is Senior Day for the Aggies, so they will want to send their seniors out winners.

Utah State has been competitive in four of its last five games with the lone exception being a 49-28 loss at Washington State.  They only lost by 16 to UNLV, by 5 to New Mexico, beat Wyoming by 2 and then crushed Hawaii 55-10 last week.  The Aggies racked up 580 total yards on Hawaii and held them to just 309, outgaining them by 271 yards.  Hawaii had been playing very well going into that game.

San Diego State has really been dominated in the box score in three straight games.  They lost 56-24 at Boise State while getting outgained 541 to 256 by the Broncos.  They only lost 21-16 at home to New Mexico, but that was a bigger blowout than the final score as the Lobos outgained them 475 to 341 but left a lot of points on the board.  And last week they lost 41-20 at UNLV while getting outgained 515 to 270 by the Rebels.

So San Diego State is allowing 510.3 yards per game and only averaging 289 yards per game on offense in their last three games.  They are getting outgained by 221.3 yards per game during this stretch.  I don't see it going any better for the Aztecs against this high-octane Utah State offense that finally showed they could play a little defense against Hawaii last week.  

The Aggies rank 8th in total offense at 463.9 yards per game and 32nd at 6.4 yards per play.  Compare that to the Aztecs, who rank 120th in total offense at 324.7 yards per game and 20th at 4.9 yards per play, and it's easy to see that the Aztecs can't keep up with them in this one.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* Tulsa/USF AAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5

Both Tulsa and South Florida are dead nut OVER teams and this should be a shootout Saturday afternoon.  South Florida ranks 1st in tempo in the entire country snapping the ball every 20.6 seconds.  Tulsa ranks 22nd in tempo snapping it ever 24.1 seconds, so this game is going to see a ton of plays and a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points as a result.

South Florida just ran it down Charlotte's throat last week rushing for 425 yards in a 59-24 victory and 83 combined points.  They are going to be able to do the same against a Tulsa defense that ranks 130th in scoring defense at 38.4 points per game, 127th in total defense at 458.1 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.  Tulsa allowed 52 points to North Texas, 49 to Army, 45 to UTSA, 59 to UAB and 38 to ECU in five of its last six games, going 5-1 OVER in those six games.

Tulsa should find plenty of success on offense to help us get this OVER 60.5 home.  The Bulls rank 119th in total defense allowing 421.1 yards per game.  They are particularly poor against the pass, allowing 265.9 yards per game which ranks 126th in the country.  Tulsa QB Cooper Legas is a good dual-threat who threw for 293 yards and 3 TD against a pretty good ECU defense last week.  He also rushed for 43 yards on 13 carries in leading the Golden Hurricane to 31 points.

Tulsa and South Florida combined for 90 points in their last meeting.  The forecast looks great for another shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Total DOMINATOR on Rice/UAB OVER 51

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to Rice (3-7) traveling to UAB (2-8) Saturday.

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers play fast and they play no defense.  They rank 23rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.1 seconds.  They rank 127th in scoring defense allowing 36.8 points per game.  And UAB has played much better offensively since switching to Jalen Kitna at QB, averaging 444.3 total yards per game and 31.3 points per game in their last four games.  This total of 51 is very low for a game involving UAB right now.

The only reason this total is so low is because Rice has been an under team this season going 7-3 to the under.  But they haven't had QB EJ Warner healthy for part of the season, and he is healthy now and thriving.  Warner threw for 246 yards and 2 TD against Memphis and 239 yards and a TD against Navy in his last two games coming in.  He will have one of his best games of the season against UAB, similar to when he threw for 347 yards and 2 TD against UTSA, which is a team that profiles similar to UAB with no defense and up-tempo.

UAB and its opponents have combined for at least 54 points in eight consecutive games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 51-point total.  The forecast looks great for a shootout this afternoon with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss -10

I normally wouldn't want to back a team like Ole Miss off an upset win over Georgia.  But the Rebels cannot afford a letdown if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They have no margin for error and cannot afford a loss.  In fact, they would do themselves some by running up the score in their final two games to assure they make it.

The Rebels had a bye last week to celebrate their win over Georgia, and now they can refocus.  They are expected to get arguably the best receiver in the country back in Tre Harris from injury this week.  Harris was leading the country in receiving before getting hurt.  He has 59 receptions for 987 yards and 6 TD in only seven games this season.

Ole Miss has the numbers of the best team in the country, which shouldn't make it all that surprising they beat Georgia 28-10.  Their 'A' game is as good as any in the country.  They lead the nation in yards per play differential, averaging 7.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 3.2 yards per play.  So basically every time the ball is snapped they gain 3.2 yards of field position.  That is as elite as it gets.

I have backed Florida several times this season and I like this team more than most who left them for dead early in the season.  The Gators continue to fight for Billy Napier and I think the program made the right move in extending him.  He was dealt a tough hand with the toughest schedule in the country and has made the most of it, getting Florida over their 4.5-win total at 5-5 this season.  They want to get to a bowl, but they have Florida State on deck next week to accomplish that goal.  It's not going to happen this week.

This is where that tough schedule hurts Florida.  The Gators have had to play Georgia, Texas and LSU the last three weeks.  It's safe to say those were some very physical games and they have taken their toll as Florida is one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the country right now.  They are missing many of their top playmakers on offense and defense.

After losing by 14 to Georgia, they lost by 32 at Texas.  But they got QB DJ Lagway back last week from injury and he led them to a 27-16 upset win over LSU.  That was a bit of a misleading final with LSU outgaining Florida by 53 yards.  But the key is that their defense was on the field for 42 minutes and 92 plays.  All four of their starters in the secondary played all 92 snaps, too, because they are so short-handed in the secondary right now.

This Ole Miss offense is not the unit you want to face when you are tired defensively.  The Rebels rank 9th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters because they need style points, and I expect this Florida defense to break.  I don't think Lagway and company can keep up in a shootout either because the Rebels are going to get their points.  

Lane Kiffin is 15-2 SU & 12-4-1 ATS since 2019 as a road favorite.  He is 8-1 ATS in his last nine games as a road favorite of -4 or higher with the only non-cover coming as 10.5-point favorites in a 10-point win at Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.  Double-digit dogs off a conference win like Florida are on a 48-87 ATS run.  Florida has lost 14 consecutive games SU as a double-digit dog dating back to 2016.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss/Florida OVER 55

The Ole Miss Rebels had a bye last week to celebrate their win over Georgia, and now they can refocus.  They need style points to make the 12-team playoff and will be looking to run up the score against Florida.  They are expected to get arguably the best receiver in the country back in Tre Harris from injury this week.  Harris was leading the country in receiving before getting hurt.  He has 59 receptions for 987 yards and 6 TD in only seven games this season.

Ole Miss is elite offensively this season ranking 4th in scoring offense at 40.7 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 538.3 yards per game and 2nd at 7.6 yards per play.  They play at the 9th-fastest tempo in the country and don't let their opponents breath.  That was on display in their last road game when they suffocated Arkansas 63-31 for 94 combined points.  That's the same Arkansas defense that held Texas to 20 points and Tennessee to 14 at home.

This is where that tough schedule hurts Florida.  The Gators have had to play Georgia, Texas and LSU the last three weeks.  It's safe to say those were some very physical games and they have taken their toll as Florida is one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the country right now.  They are missing many of their top playmakers on defense.

After losing by 14 to Georgia, they lost by 32 at Texas.  But they got QB DJ Lagway back last week from injury and he led them to a 27-16 upset win over LSU.  But the key is that their defense was on the field for 42 minutes and 92 plays.  All four of their starters in the secondary played all 92 snaps, too, because they are so short-handed in the secondary right now.

This Ole Miss offense is not the unit you want to face when you are tired defensively.  The Rebels rank 9th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters because they need style points, and I expect this Florida defense to break.

Lagway has one of the best deep balls in the country and he is averaging 18.8 yards per completion this season.  I think he will have enough success with some deep balls to get Florida on the board quickly a few times in this game.  It likely won't be enough to hang with Ole Miss, but it will be enough to help us cash this OVER 55 ticket.  The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds without any threat of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland +6.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes had some life offensively when Brandon Sullivan took over at QB.  He was a dual-threat and added a dimension the Hawkeyes didn't have before, and it worked in blowout wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern.

But Sullivan got hurt in their 20-17 loss to UCLA.  Former starter Cade McNamara is done at Iowa, and now it's up to third-string QB Jackson Stratton.  He took over late for Sullivan in the loss to UCLA and went 3-of-6 for 28 yards.  This will be the first start of his career on the road in the Big Ten, and I don't expect it to go well for him.

Maryland will be motivated sitting at 4-6 on the season and two wins away from bowl eligibility.  They host Nebraska next week, so these next two games are very winnable.  They are in this position because they lost 31-17 to Rutgers last week.  But that misleading final is the reason we are getting more points with the Terrapins than we should be today.

Maryland goes from being a 4-point home favorite over Rutgers to a 6.5-point underdog to Iowa.  That's a 10.5-point adjustment.  I power rate Rutgers and Iowa very similarly.  Maryland outgained Rutgers 457 to 360 for the game, or by nearly 100 yards, which is why I say it was a misleading final.

I like the matchup for the Terrapins, too.  Iowa needs to run the football to be effective because they have the 127th-ranking passing attack in the country, and it's going to be even worse with Stratton.  The Terrapins rank 29th in allowing just 115.4 rushing yards per game and 30th at 3.6 per carry.  They are great along the front seven and weak in the secondary, which is something Iowa will not be able to exploit.

Heavy passing teams have had success throwing the ball against Iowa.  UCLA, Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa State all had a lot of success throwing the ball on Iowa's defense.  The Terrapins are getting great production from their pasisng game this season.  QB Billy Edwards is completing 65% of his passes for 2,855 yards with a 15-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  He gets to throw to two of the most underrated receivers in the country in Felton and Prather, who have combined for 138 receptions, 1,629 yards and 10 TD this season.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* Indiana/Ohio State FOX No-Brainer on Indiana +13.5

What more does Indiana have to do to get some respect? The Hoosiers are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS this season with nine of their 10 wins coming by 14 points or more.  They led Michigan 17-3 at halftime and it turned into a 5-point game as they took their foot off the gas in the 2H going into their bye week and looking ahead to this game against Ohio State, which is understandable.

I think that effort is the only reason the Hoosiers are double-digit dogs here to Ohio State.  I think the Hoosiers can get back to playing with a chip on their shoulder because nobody is giving them a chance Saturday, talking about their strength of schedule.  Head coach Curt Cignetti is saying all the right things and even stated that they have been in control in every game this season, which is true.

Indiana has no weaknesses.  The Hoosiers rank 2nd in scoring offense at 43.9 points per game and 7th in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game.  They rank 9th averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and 2nd allowing 4.2 yards per play on defense.  Their 2.7 net yards per play differential is one of the best marks in the country.

Ohio State needed a late comeback to beat Nebraska 21-17 at home as 25-point favorites.  That's the same Nebraska team Indiana blasted 56-7 as 6.5-point home favorites.  No question the Buckeyes are one of the best teams in the country, but they have some problems along the offensive line that I think Indiana can exploit.

Ohio State just lost starting C Seth McClaughlin to a season-ending Achilles injury in practice this week.  Injuries at the center position are worth more than what is being factored into the line.  He makes all the calls up front, and the Buckeyes don't have much time to prepare to play without him.  They were already without starting LT Josh Simmons, so they are now missing two starters up front.

The Buckeyes need to be able to run the ball to be effective because Will Howard is shaky at times in the passing game.  I don't see them having much success on the ground with these O-Line injuries, plus the fact that Indiana ranks 1st in the country allowing just 72.2 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 2.5 yards per rush.  The Hoosiers are also off a bye week so they have had two weeks to rest and prepare for the Buckeyes, a fact that also isn't being factored into the line enough.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on UC-Irvine -6.5

UC-Irvine is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Anteaters went 24-10 (17-3 Big West) last season and return four starters from that team that all averaged at least 9.0 points per game.

The Anteaters are 4-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in lined games this season absolutely crushing the first two spreads.  They beat Chapman 82-52 in their opener, then followed it up with a 66-51 win at Loyola-Marymount as 1.5-point favorites and a 80-60 win at Northern Iowa as 3.5-point dogs, covering the spread by a combined 37 points in those two games.  They also beat Pepperdine 80-62 as 16-point favorites last time out.

Now the Anteaters should make easy work of a Weber State team that has been dreadful this season.  The Wildcats are 1-3 SU & 1-2 ATS this season.  They lost 76-48 at Oregon State as 5-point dogs, lost 88-58 at Nevada as 17-point dogs and lost 73-68 at Hawaii as 5.5-point dogs, covering by 0.5-point after failing to cover by a combined 36 points in their first two games.  Bet UC-Irvine Friday.

15* Pacers/Bucks Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on OVER 235.5

The Indiana Pacers like to play with pace and they rank 23rd in defensive rating.  They profile as an OVER team.  The Milwaukee Bucks just got Damian Lillard back and are fully healthy with the exception of Middleton.  This game profiles as a shootout.

These NBA Cup games can get pretty wild in the 4th quarter because point differential is the tiebreaker in group play.  You see favorites not dribble the ball out, and the team that is down continuing to play the foul game to try and stay alive as long as possible.

Indiana is 11-4 OVER in all games this season and are coming off 249 combined points with Toronto and 243 combined points with Houston in their last two games.  In their four regular season meetings last season, the Pacers and Bucks went for 247, 266, 235 and 272 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Bulls OVER 245.5

The Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls are the two most dead nuts OVER teams in the NBA this season.  The Bulls rank 1st in pace while the Hawks rank 2nd in pace.  The Bulls rank 27th in defensive rating while the Hawks rank 20th.

The Hawks are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  The Bulls are fully healthy outside of Ball and Williams.  They have been a much better offensive team since getting Zach LaVine back from injury.

This will be the 2nd meeting between the Hawks and Bulls this season.  The Bulls won 125-113 for 238 combined points on November 9th in that first meeting.  But that game died in the 4th quarter with just 50 combined points.  

I think this 4th quarter will be much different as whoever is ahead will be motivated to win by as much as possible with point differential being the tiebreaker in group play in these NBA Cup games.  Get ready for a much more high-scoring 4th quarter tonight that should sail over this 245.5-point total. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Purdue/Michigan State FOX No-Brainer on Michigan State -13.5

I love the spot for the Michigan State Spartans Friday night.  They sit at 4-6 on the season and highly motivated for a win to get within one win of bowl eligibility with another winnable home game against Rutgers on deck next week.  It will be a great atmosphere Friday night as fans are excited about head coach Jonathan Smith and the direction of this team.

Michigan State is coming off a misleading 38-16 road loss at Illinois last week, which is why this line is below 14 and providing us value.  Illinois only outgained Michigan State by 26 yards.  It was a 6-point game entering the 4th quarter.

After going through a gauntlet of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Oregon and Ohio State in their last six games coming in, the Spartans will be looking forward to a big step down in class against the worst team in the Big Ten in Purdue.  They will take out their frustration and win this game going away.

Purdue is 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Seven of those nine losses came by 17 points or more, and you can chalk up another blowout loss for the Boilermakers tonight.  After losing in OT to Northwestern coming out of their bye at home, they have simply quit the last two weeks losing 45-0 to Ohio State and 49-10 to Penn State.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank on this short week, and they are just ready for the season to be over at this point.

Michigan State had a bye prior to Illinois and should still be fresh, which is an advantage on this short week.  The Spartans are 8-1 SU in their last nine meetings with the Boilermakers, and they haven't gotten to face a Purdue team that has been this bad during this stretch.  They'll take advantage of this opportunity and win going away tonight.  Bet Michigan State Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Utah State/Iowa OVER 168

This has the makings of the biggest shootout on the entire college basketball board tonight with the way that both Iowa and Utah State like to push the tempo.  The books haven't set this total high enough as a result as I think both teams can get into the 90's.

Iowa ranks 48th in adjusted tempo and 22nd in average possession length on offense at 14.9 seconds.  Utah State ranks 56th in adjusted tempo including 10th in average possession length on offense at 14.5 seconds.

Utah State is scoring 104 points per game this season while ranking 12th in effective field goal percentage.  Iowa is scoring 86.6 points per game this season while ranking 37th in that same category.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Nebraska/Creighton FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +11

Fred Hoiberg is doing a great job at Nebraska turning them into a much more competitive program.  He has them off to a 3-1 start this season with their lone loss coming to Saint Mary's by 3 on a neutral as 4-point dogs.

Creighton is overvalued as a Top 25 team and that has played out as the Bluejays are 1-3 ATS this season with their lone cover coming by 2 points.  These teams have two common opponents already and seeing the results from those two games has led me to Nebraska +11 showing value.

Nebraska outscored UTRGV by 20 and Fairleigh Dickinson by 26 winning those two games by a combined 46 points.  Creighton outscored UTRGV by 13 and Fairleigh Dickinson by 26 winning those two games by 39 combined points.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Wizards OVER 236

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They play a Boston Celtics team that is shooting even more 3-pointers this season while ranking 3rd in offensive rating, so the Celtics are going to hang a big number on them.

This is a NBA Cup game so the Celtics want to improve their point differential, which is the tiebreaker in group play.  That means they will be keeping their foot on the gas for four quarters.

In their last NBA Cup game, the Wizards showed they won't quit in their 130-139 loss at San Antonio.  That game saw 70 combined points in the 4th quarter including 39 from Washington.  The Wizards will keep coming for four quarters as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Michigan -30.5

Michigan looks like one of the most improved teams in the country.  First-year head coach Dusty May comes over from Florida Atlantic fame after taking the Owls to the Final 4 two years ago.  He is already putting his imprint on this program.

The Wolverines are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming by 2 to Wake Forest as 2-point favorites on a neutral.  They blasted Cleveland State 101-53 as 21.5-point favorites, which is the same Cleveland State team that only lost by 13 at Kansas State and by 11 at Minnesota.  The Wolverines beat TCU 76-64 as 6.5-point home favorites and crushed Miami Ohio 94-67 as 23-point favorites.

Now Michigan takes an even bigger step down in class here against Tarleton State, which looks like one of the worst teams in the country this season.  Tarleton is 1-4 SU & 0-4 ATS with its lone win coming against Tabor College.  They lost by 32 at SMU at 14.5point dogs, by 29 at home to Sam Houston State as 5.5-point dogs, by 20 at Florida State as 17-point dogs and then by a whopping 63 points at Baylor as 31.5-point dogs.  Mercy.

It's not going to get any easier for the Texans and head coach Billy Gillespie tonight.  He lost all five starters from last season and frankly has lost his touch as a head coach.  The Texans are turning the ball over on 31.8% of possessions, which is the worst mark in the country.  They are averaging steals on just 17.8% of possessions, which is also worst in the country.  Michigan ranks 4th in the country in effective FG percentage at 64.4%.  The Wolverines will get what they want offensively and shut down Tarleton defensively similar to what SMU, Sam Houston and Baylor did to them.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

20* Steelers/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on OVER 36

The lookahead total for this game was 42.  Bettors were anticipating weather so they bet this all the way down to a low of 36.  I bought the dip at 36 below the key numbers of 37 and 38 when it comes to NFL totals.  I think there's great value here on the OVER 36.

The forecast looks much better now than they projected early in the week, which happens all the time.  What was forecast to be 15-20 MPH winds is now in the single-digits.  Yes, there will be possible snow and rain, but wind affects scoring much more than precipitation.  A slick field actually favors the offense because players know where they are going.

The Steelers were trending as an OVER team with Russell Wilson at quarterback.  They went 3-0 OVER in his first three starts with 52, 44 and 55 combined points before a 18-16 victory over the Ravens last week that stayed well under the total of 48.5.  That result I think is keeping this total lower than it should be as well.

The Steelers had to settle for 6 field goals against the Ravens as they simply could not punch in their scoring chances.  The Ravens also blew some opportunities as well.  And that's one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL and usually lower scoring to boot as they know each other inside and out.

Cleveland is an OVER team with Jameis Winston at quarterback. They have gone for 53, 37 and 49 combined points in his three starts.  He stretches the field with big plays and big mistakes.  Winston threw for 395 yards and 2 TD against the Saints last week in a 35-14 loss.  The Browns left a lot of points on the board including three missed field goals.  They still managed 49 combined points.

That's because this Cleveland defense is broken.  They allowed 35 points and 473 total yards to what was a short-handed New Orleans offense.  Taysom Hill ran for 138 yards on only seven carries and three touchdowns.  I think the Steelers will have similar success against them tonight.

The Steelers and Browns have combined for at least 40 points in seven of their last nine meetings.  And there has been some very poor QB play during this stretch, but I think these two teams are in about as good a shape as they have been at the QB position in a long time.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons -1

The Detroit Pistons have been better than expected this season at 7-9 SU & 9-6-1 ATS in 16 games.  They have won four of their last seven coming in.  Prior to that, they lost 108-107 at the buzzer to the Charlotte Hornets.

Now the Pistons will be out for revenge tonight which is why I love this spot for them.  The Pistons are fully healthy while the Hornets are not.  They are without two centers in Williams and Richards, starting SF Bridges is questionable and key bench PG Tre Mann is banged up.

The Pistons are also the more rested team coming in on two days' rest, while the Hornets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  Bet the Pistons Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +12

Injuries are starting to pile up for the Oklahoma City Thunder and they aren't playing that well since losing their star big man in Chet Holmgren.  They are coming off consecutive losses to the Mavericks as 7-point home favorites who were without Luka Doncic, and to the Spurs as 9.5-point favorites who were without Victor Wembenyama.

Now the Thunder are in a brutal rest spot tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  They won't handle this situation very well with how short-handed they are right now, and they have no business being 12-point favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers given the spot.

The Blazers are as fresh as can be.  They will be paying just their 2nd game in 7 days.  They are also one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Timberwolves by 14 as 9-point dogs, then came back the next night and backed it up with an 8-point win over the Timberwolves as 10-point dogs.  They also upset the Hawks by 4 as 4-point dogs last time out.  This line is way out of whack given the circumstances.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets -6.5

The Houston Rockets are 10-5 SU & 10-5 ATS this season and one of the most improved teams in the NBA.  They are also one of the healthiest teams in the NBA and brought back pretty much everyone from last year, so their chemistry is great in the early going.

That has been on display as the Rockets have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming by a single points at Milwaukee.  Their last four wins have come by a combined 80 points, and by an average of 20 points per game.

Now the healthy Rockets get to face a very banged up Indiana Pacers team that will be without Wiseman, Jackson, Nesmith and Nembhard, plus Turner, Sheppard and Walker are all questionable.  The Pacers have clearly been hampered by these injuries going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games, no loss worse than their 130-119 loss at Toronto as 3.5-point favorites last time out.

Houston has actually lost nine consecutive meetings with Indiana including losses by 6 and 3 points in their two meetings last season.  I think head coach Ime Udoka will play the revenge card tonight and remind his players of that losing streak, and thus we'll see an inspired effort from them tonight.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +8.5

The Bulls have been playing much better since getting Zach LaVine back from injury.  They are 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall which includes upset wins over the Knicks as 8.5-point road dogs, the Hawks as 2.5-point road dogs and the Pistons as 4-point road dogs.  They are playing their best basketball on the road this season.

Now they head to Milwaukee to take on a Bucks team that is grossly overvalued.  The Bucks are 5-9-1 SU & 4-9-1 ATS with one of the worst rosters in the league outside of Giannis and Lillard.

The Bulls already beat the Bucks 133-122 as 9.5-point dogs in Milwaukee in their first meeting this season.  Lillard and Giannis combined for 66 points on 26-of-44 shooting and the Bucks still lost by double-digits.  That says all you need to know about the rest of their roster.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -14.5

I put this play in as soon as I saw the Pelicans were going to rest Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy.  They were already without Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Jordan Hawkins and Dejounte Murray.  Those are their top 6 leading scorers this season that they will be without tonight.  Mercy.

The Pelicans are 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS this season and it is getting worse before it gets better.  The Pelicans are 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall with their lone win coming against a Nuggets team that was without Jokic and Gordon.  Five of their eight losses have come by 15 points or more, including their 41-point loss at Dallas last night.

Now the Pelicans will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and won't have Ingram and Murphy, who combined for 36 of their 91 points in that 132-91 loss to the Mavericks last night.  This is literally a G-League team right now with the players they are putting on the court.

I know since I released this play the Cavaliers didn't get the best injury news with Darius Garland out due to rest.  But they should still have Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley on the court, and they'll have more than enough firepower to beat the Pelicans by 15-plus.

I originally wasn't going to take the Cavaliers because of the spot off their first loss of the season to the Celtics by 3 last night.  But teams who had a 12-game or more winning streak snapped are 43-26-2 ATS in their next game, and teams that had a 14-game or more winning streak snapped are 27-10 ATS in their next game.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo/Eastern Michigan OVER 53

Both Buffalo and Eastern Michigan like to play fast, no-huddle offenses which is going to give us extra possessions in this game and more opportunities for points.  Buffalo ranks 21st in tempo snapping the ball every 24 seconds while Eastern Michigan ranks 27th snapping it ever 24.2 seconds.  These are two of the worst defenses int the MAC to boot.

Many bettors took the under in this game due to weather concerns, but I don't think it looks that bad.  Temps will be in the 40's with 15 MPH winds and there shouldn't be much precipitation by the time the game starts.  I think both offenses will have a lot more success than most are thinking due to the weather.

Buffalo is a dead nuts OVER team especially of late.  The Bulls have gone 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 99, 71, 63 and 89 combined points in there last four games.  This 53-point total is very low for a game involving the Bulls with the way they are trending right now.

Eastern Michigan is 4-2 OVER in its last six games overall with 52 or more combined points in four of those six games.  If this game is played more on the ground, neither team can stop the run.  Buffalo ranks 77th allowing 4.3 per carry while Eastern Michigan is even worse ranking 95th allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  Both teams are pretty balanced offensively.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 54 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -3.5

Note: I locked in this play as soon as I saw Nikola Jokic was out.  It would still be a 20* Top Play up to -6.

The Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy with the exception of JA Morant, but they have proven they can play without him.  The Grizzlies went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS before showing they could play with two of the best teams in the West in the Lakers and Warriors on the road.

I was almost more impressed that they only lost by 5 to the Lakers as 7.5-point road dogs and by 5 to the Warriors as 7-point road dogs without Morant than I was with their 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS run before that.  The Grizzlies are now 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and they are rested playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The Grizzlies have absolutely dominated in their last four home games going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS, beating the Wizards by 24 as 7.5-point favorites, the Lakers by 17 as 4-point favorites, the Bucks by 23 as 6.5-point underdogs and the Nuggets by 15 as 6-point favorites.  I look for them to crush the short-handed Denver Nuggets again tonight.

The Nuggets will be without both Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon tonight, and they have no shot of winning this game without these two.  We saw their first game without Jokic they lost 101-94 at New Orleans as 2-point favorites.  And that's a Pelicans team that is missing more key players to injury than any team in the NBA right now.

The Nuggets went on to lose 105-90 at Memphis last time out.  And the Grizzlies called off the dogs in the 4th quarter sitting their starters after a 20-point lead entering the final period.  Normally I'd be worried about a letdown for a team like Memphis in this spot, but not with the NBA Cup on the line.  The Grizzlies are motivated to win the NBA Cup and with point differential being a tiebreaker, I expect them to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters and try to run it up.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Nets OVER 220.5

This is a pretty low total for an NBA Cup game where both the Charlotte Hornets and Brooklyn Nets will be keeping their foot on the gas for four quarters knowing that point differential matters for tiebreakers.  I would like this OVER 220.5 even if that wasn't a factor, but it's certainly a factor tonight.

The Hornets have to go more small ball right now without C Mark Williams and C Nick Richards.  They have gone OVER the total in their last two games coming in combining for 229 points with the Bucks and 242 points with the Cavaliers.

The Nets also have to go more small ball right now without C Nic Claxton and without fellow C Day'Ron Sharpe.  The OVER is 3-1 in Nets last four games overall including 253 combined points with the Celtics and 246 combined points with the Knicks, which was a NBA Cup game.

The Nets and Hornets have combined for at least 229 points in six of their last nine meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Cavs/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +5.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 15-0 SU & 11-4 ATS this season and dodging letdown spots left and right.  It's safe to say they won't be having a letdown tonight considering the Celtics knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  They want to make a statement tonight and prove they can beat the defending champs.

The Cavaliers were ravaged by injuries in the playoffs last year playing without both Mitchell and Allen by the end of the series.  But they are much healthier now with Mitchell, Allen, Mobley and Garland all playing tonight.  That's one of the best quartets in the NBA and it's a big reason the Cavaliers are 15-0 right now.

It's also due to the change in philosophy with head coach Kenny Atkinson, who has transformed the Cavaliers into the league's top-ranked offense, even ahead of the Celtics.  They are playing faster and shooting more 3-pointers and the ball isn't sticking in Mitchell's hands like it used to.

Boston is just 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall with some very alarming performances.  They Celtics lost outright to the Hawks as 16-point home dogs and needed OT to beat the Raptors by 3 as 16.5-point favorites in their last two home games.  I just think this team is going through the motions after winning the title, and although they will be motivated tonight, they won't be as motivated as Cleveland.  The Cavaliers are the better team right now and they'll prove it tonight.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Cleveland State/Minnesota UNDER 133.5

Minnesota is 4-0 UNDER in its four games this season going for 137, 132, 105 and 115 combined points with its four opponents.  What makes the Gophers a dead nuts UNDER team is that they rank 360th in adjusted tempo including 353rd in average possession length on offense.

Now Minnesota faces another dead nuts UNDER team in Cleveland State, which 3-0 to the UNDER in its last three games.  The Vikings rank 333rd in average possession length on offense.  So neither team is looking to run, and both are much better defensively than they are on offense.  This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Ohio State -24.5

I like the spot for the Ohio State Buckeyes tonight.  They suffered their first loss of the season on the road at Texas A&M last time out, and they'll come back highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.

The Buckeyes have played a tough schedule as they also beat Texas in their opener 80-72 as 2-point dogs on a neutral in Vegas.  They followed it up with a 81-47 blasting of Youngstown State as 19-point favorites in their lone home game this season.  That 34-point win looks really good when you consider Youngstown State beat Chicago State by 20 and took Syracuse to double-OT in its other two games.

Evansville is rebuilding with just one starter back from last year, and the results have been ugly for the Purple Aces this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-3 ATS losing by 17 at North Texas as 13.5-point dogs, by 17 at Middle Tennessee as 11-point dogs and by 11 at home to Radford as 4-point favorites.  Radford lost by 40 at Pittsburgh.

This will be Evansville's toughest test of the season against a motivated Buckeyes team coming off a loss.  I don't expect it to go well for the Purple Aces tonight.  Bet Ohio State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on SIU-Edwardsville +4

SIU-Edwardsville is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Cougars are 4-2 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with both losses coming on the road to Indiana and Illinois, who are two of the best teams in the country.  They even covered in a 19-point loss at Indiana as 27.5-point dogs.

The Cougars have handled everyone else winning 95-42 over FCS Westminister, 77-72 as 6-point dogs at Indiana State, 79-60 as 2.5-point dogs at Western Michigan and 76-58 as 5.5-point favorites over Canisius on a neutral.  Those are some very impressive results.

Green Bay is a rebuilding team under first-year head coach Doug Gottlieb, the former commentator who I never thought would be a head coach.  It hasn't gone well for Gottlieb and the Phoenix in the early going.

The Phoenix are 1-3 SU this season and while two losses came on the road to Providence by 14 and to Oklahoma State by 13, those aren't two of the better power conference teams.  They also lost by 14 at home to St. Thomas, which looks really bad when you consider St. Thomas lost by 9 to Oklahoma State and by 15 at Arizona State.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet SIU-Edwardsville Tuesday.

20* Texans/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -7

I jumped on the Texans +5 on the opener last week against the Lions with the anticipation that Nico Collins would be back.  He ended up getting scratched right before the game, and I felt fortunate to cash that ticket in a 3-point loss to the Lions even though the Texans led that game 23-7 at home point.

Now Nico Collins is officially back this week, which is why I'm willing to lay the -7 with the Texans among other factors.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  He means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense, which has actually produced a great running game this season with Joe Mixon.  Now the passing game will take off again this week.

Of course, it helps that the Texans get to play the hapless Dallas Cowboys.  The Texans will be motivated coming off two consecutive losses so they won't be looking past Dallas.  And they get to take on a Cowboys team that just isn't very good for starters, and one that has been decimated by injuries this season as well.

The Cowboys are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost 47-9 as 3.5-point home dogs to the Lions, 30-24 as 5.5-point road dogs to the 49ers, 27-21 as 3.5-point road dogs to the Falcons and 34-6 as 7-point home dogs to the Eagles.  And they even scored a garbage TD late against the 49ers to make that score look closer than it was, and a garbage score against the Falcons late to make that score closer than it was.

The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott to injury in that loss to the Falcons to boot.  We saw what this team looks like without Dak at QB, and it's not pretty.  That 34-6 loss to the Eagles was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Cowboys managed just 146 total yards and 11 first downs against the Eagles.  They had 49 net passing yards on 26 attempts, averaging less than 2 yards per attempt.  I don't think I've ever seen passing numbers in the NFL that are that poor.

It's not going to get any easier this week against a Houston Texans defense that has been great all season.  The Texans rank 3rd in total defense at 288.0 yards per game and 5th at 5.2 yards per play allowed.  They rank 4th against the pass at 174.7 passing yards per game allowed, so Cooper Rush or Trey Lance won't be able to come back on them once they take a commanding lead.

Dallas is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS at home this season and has trailed by at least 20 points in all four home games.  They lost 44-19 to the Saints, 28-25 to the Ravens after trailing by 22 entering the 4th, 47-9 to the Lions and 34-6 to the Eagles.  And they had Dak Prescott running the offense for those first three games.  

The Cowboys don't have a running game to help out their QB, and they are lacking weapons outside of CeeDee Lamb, who is banged up right now.  They just aren't going to be able to score enough to keep this game competitive.  Houston is in line for one of its best offensive outputs of the season and hungry to get the offense going with Collins back.  Bet the Texans Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rockets/Bucks OVER 224

Both the Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks rank in the top half of the league in pace.  The Rockets are playing noticeably faster recently and it's paying off as they went for 143 points with the Bulls last night and 125 with the Clippers the game before.

But a big reason I'm on this OVER is because the Bucks get Damian Lillard back from injury tonight, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is healthy as well.  The Bucks are much more of an OVER team when these two are healthy because they are one of the toughest duos to stop in the NBA.

The Bucks and Rockets have combined for at least 228 points in eight of their last 10 meetings, making for an 8-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 224-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Pistons OVER 233.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They ranks 1st in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  The Bulls and their opponents have combined for at least 232 points in six consecutive games, including 238 or more five times.

The Detroit Pistons just scored 124 points against the Wizards last night after calling off the dogs in the 4th quarter in a blowout.  The Bulls just allowed 143 points to the Rockets last night in a blowout.  So while both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, both should still be pretty fresh considering no starter for either team played more than 30 minutes.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Cal/USC BTN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 152.5

California is playing fast ranking 52nd in adjusted tempo this season.  They combined with Bakersfield for 159 points, Cal Poly for 164 points and Vanderbilt for 154 points.  This total of 152.5 is pretty low for a game involving Cal right now.

That's especially the case when you consider USC head coach Eric Musselmen has the Trojans playing fast as well.  They rank 82nd in adjusted tempo and are coming off a 98-95 thriller with UT-Arlington for 193 combined points in regulation.

The last three meetings between Cal and USC have seen 157, 156 and 160 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Bengals/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 45

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall with 51 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  They just went for 69 combined points with the Ravens, 65 with the Raiders and 54 with the Eagles in their last three games coming in.

Now the Bengals get their star WR Tee Higgins back from injury this week and will be even more potent on offense.  They put up 41 points on the Raiders and 34 points and 470 yards on the Ravens in their last two games without him.  LT Orlando Brown may be back this week as well.

The Chargers have been an under team this season and they do have a great defense.  However, they have benefited from facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL.  They have faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis this season.  Mahomes was missing many of his key weapons.

The current version of this Cincinnati offense will be far and away the best the Chargers have seen all season.  The Chargers will be forced to keep up in a shootout, and they should be able to do just that with the way their offense is trending in recent weeks since getting several key players back from injury.

The Chargers put up 26 points on the Saints and weren't pressed so they took their foot off the gas late in that game.  They put up 27 points on the Browns on the road and 27 points on the Titans at home.  Those are two very underrated defenses.  Now they get to face a Cincinnati defense that ranks 26th in scoring at 26.2 points per game and 23rd in total defense at 347.5 yards per game.  The Chargers are in line for one of their best offensive performances of the season.  Cincinnati is without LB Joe Bachie and both DE Trey Hendrickson and DT BJ Hill are questionable.

This has the makings of a shootout in perfect conditions in Los Angeles Sunday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

I love the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They get a chance at quick revenge after losing 124-122 as 8.5-point road dogs to the Knicks on Friday.  Now they come back as 9.5-point dogs in the rematch, and this number should have been adjusted down instead of up for the spot.

The Nets have been one of the best covering teams in the NBA this season going 10-3 ATS in their 13 games.  They have been competitive in almost all their losses, and asking the Knicks to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

The Knicks lack depth this season as they have been without Achiuwa and Robinson all season.  Towns and McBride are both questionable.  I like the Nets even if both guys go, and this line will crash if Towns doesn't play.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Blazers OVER 231.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-2 OVER in their 13 games this season with 232 or more combined points in 12 of their 13 games.  That makes for a 12-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 231.5-point total.

What makes the Hawks are dead nuts OVER team is ranking 3rd in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  They play fast and they play no defense.  They are getting healthier and showing they have a deep team scoring 117 or more points in four of their last five games.

The Blazers also like to play faster this season ranking 9th in pace and 20th in defensive rating.  They are coming off a low-scoring game against the Timberwolves which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  It was the 2nd meeting in 2 days with the Timberwolves, who they combined for 230 points with the night before.  Minnesota shot 7-of-39 (18%) from 3-point range which is why it was so low-scoring.

Both teams are fresh and ready to run.  The Blazers have had the last three days off, while the Hawks will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy with the exception of JA Morant, but they have proven they can play without him.  The Grizzlies went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS before showing they could play with two of the best teams in the West in the Lakers and Warriors on the road.

I was almost more impressed that they only lost by 5 to the Lakers as 7.5-point road dogs and by 5 to the Warriors as 7-point road dogs without Morant than I was with their 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS run before that.  Now they are highly motivated for a win coming back home, and they are rested playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.

The Grizzlies have absolutely dominated in their last three home games, beating the Wizards by 24 as 7.5-point favorites, the Lakers by 17 as 4-point favorties and the Bucks by 23 as 6.5-point underdogs.  I look for them to crush the short-handed Denver Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets will be without both Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon tonight, and they have no shot of winning this game without these two.  We saw their first game without Jokic they lost 101-94 at New Orleans as 2-point favorites.  And that's a Pelicans team that is missing more key players to injury than any team in the NBA right now.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on OVER 48

The San Francisco 49ers just got their full compliment of weapons back last week coming out of their bye.  They got Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and JaJuan Jenning all back from injury against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Those three combined for 276 of their 413 yards from scrimmage to show their importance to this team.  This 49ers offense is one of the best in the NFL when healthy, and that hasn't been the case for much of the season, and they are still putting up some of the best numbers in the league.

The 49ers rank 2nd in total offense at 412.4 yards per game and 2nd at 6.8 yards per play trailing only the potent Baltimore Ravens in both categories.  They have been able to score at will on Seattle for years as they just have their number, and they will be able to pretty much name their number against Seattle again.

The 49ers have averaged 34 points per game in their last four meetings with Seattle.  They beat the Seahawks 36-24 in their first meeting this season for 60 combined points, and a similar shootout will be the result in the rematch.  The 49ers had 483 total yards in that win.

Reinforcements are on the way for Seattle on offense now as well.  They had a bye last week, and DK Metcalf was close to coming back before the bye, and now he should be 100% coming out of the bye.  Metcalf means everything to this Seattle offense with his ability to stretch the field.  He has 568 receiving yards in basically just six games of action while averaging 16.2 per reception.

Geno Smith was lost the last two games without Metcalf against the Bills and Rams.  He will be much more comfortable this week.  He leads a Seattle offense that ranks 9th in total offense at 359.4 yards per game and 10th at 5.9 yards per play.  Geno threw for 312 yards in that first meeting with the 49ers and the Seahawks found a lot of success once they went up-tempo, which is something they may look to deploy again in the rematch.  That would benefit the OVER.

The 49ers just aren't as dominant defensively as they have been in the past, and Nick Bosa has been a non-factor for much of the season.  The Seahawks haven't lived up to the hype defensively this season with Mike McDonald.  They have allowed 26 or more points in five of their last six games and an average of 29.7 points per game during this stretch.  

I just don't think McDonald has the right players to run what he wants to run, and he even just cut his leading tackler in LB Tyrel Dodson.  The 49ers aren't the offense to get right against defensively coming out of their bye week. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Falcons/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44

The Atlanta Falcons are a dead nuts OVER team that hasn't exactly gone of the total much this season at 6-4 to the UNDER.  That is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Falcons have one of the best offenses in the NFL, but also one of the worst defenses in the league in their current state.  This total of 44 is too low for a game involving Atlanta right now.

The Falcons rank 5th in the NFL in total offense at 375.1 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  The put up 468 total yards on the Saints last week but only 17 points.  They missed three field goals and bogged down in the red zone.  I think that misleading 20-17 final against the Saints last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.

The Falcons allowed 365 total yards to what was a very injury-ravaged Saints offense that was missing their top three receivers and a couple offensive linemen.  The Saints picked up Marquez Valdes-Scantling off the street and he went for 109 receiving yards and 2 TD on this Atlanta defense.

Things have gone from bad to worse for this Atlanta defense, which gets the least pressure of any defense in the NFL this season with just 9.5 sacks in 10 games.  The injury report for their defense is almost laughable.  They are without CB Mike Hughes, CB Dee Alford, CB Antonio Hamilton and already have three other secondary players on IR.  They are without LB Troy Anderson, LB JD Bertrand, DE Ta'Quon Graham and LB James Smith-Williams.  They have 6 defenders on IR and 7 defenders ruled out just this week.  Mercy.

This Denver offense has been trending up under Rookie QB Bo Nix, who is arguably the second-best rookie QB in the NFL behind Jayden Daniels.  They put up 34 on the Raiders, 33 on the Saints and 28 on the Panthers.  Nix played a near perfect game against the Chiefs last week on the road going 22-of-30 passing for 215 yards and 2 TD and led what should have been the game-winning drive, but the Broncos had a short FG blocked on the final play that would have given them the upset win.

Nix and company should have one of their best games of the season against this injury-ravaged Atlanta defense.  The Falcons are going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because they aren't stopping Denver.  This is a solid Denver defense, but it's also true that they have benefited from facing a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses this season.  We saw what could happen against a legit offense two games ago when they allowed 41 points and 396 total yards to the Ravens.  The Falcons won't have that kind of success, but they will have enough to get us up and OVER this short total of 44.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.