Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-08-23 | Hawks -3 v. Wizards | Top | 122-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks -3 The Washington Wizards are in a brutal spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days after a 119-117 win in Detroit last night. They struggled to beat the lowly Pistons, which meant their starters had to play big minutes to close the deal. That will leave them on tired legs tonight and with not much left in the tank for the Hawks. Atlanta comes in highly motivated for a victory following consecutive losses in Miami prior to having yesterday off. They also want revenge from a 116-119 home loss to the Wizards on February 28th just over a week ago. I expect the Hawks to win with room to spare tonight given the favorable spot both from a motivation and rest perspective. Atlanta is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games following a loss by 6 points or less. Plays on favorites (Atlanta) - revenging a loss as a home favorite of 7 points or more against an opponent that is coming off a road win are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Hawks Wednesday. |
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03-08-23 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 146.5 | 62-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/West Virginia UNDER 146.5 Both Texas Tech and West Virginia are squarely on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament. That means both teams will be giving max effort today in the Big 12 Tournament, and it will most likely lead to intense defense and a low scoring game. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 3rd and final meeting between these teams this season. They combined for 137 points with a 139.5-point total in their first meeting, and 150 points with a 145-point total in their 2nd meeting. So just comparing the totals from the first two meetings, it's easy to see how there is value on the UNDER as this 146.5-point total is 7 points higher than the total in the first meeting (139.5). Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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03-08-23 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +2 | 65-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin +2 Wisconsin is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and won't take Ohio State lightly in the Big Ten Tournament as a result. That's key because the Buckeyes are struggling to close the season going just 3-15 SU & 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games overall. I backed Wisconsin in a 65-60 upset win at Ohio State as 7.5-point underdogs in their lone meeting this season on February 2nd. I stated that Ohio State shouldn't even be favored with how they are playing right now. And I feel that is the case again here as they are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers as neutral court favorites to Wisconsin. The Badgers are playing much better than Ohio State right now. They are 3-3 SU & 3-2-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their three losses coming by 1 to Rutgers, by 2 to Purdue and in OT to Michigan. That's how close they are to being 6-0 against a brutal schedule. Wisconsin is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games. Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. Bet Wisconsin Wednesday. |
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03-08-23 | St. Joe's v. George Washington UNDER 155.5 | 87-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joe's/George Washington UNDER 155.5 This will be the 3rd meeting between St. Joe's and George Washington this season and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. They combined for 158 points at the end or regulation in their first meeting this season before going to overtime. They came back for 150 combined points in the rematch, and I think this total of 155.5 has been set too high with their seasons at stake in the 3rd and final meeting in the Atlantic 10 Tournament. All three Atlantic 10 Tournament games yesterday went UNDER the total with Richmond and UMass combining for 109 points, Loyola-Chicago and St. Joe's combining for 139 points and Rhode Island and La Salle combining for 129 points. Teams clearly aren't clicking on all cylinders to start this Atlantic 10 Tournament at Barclays Center. St. Joe's is 7-1 UNDER following a conference win this season. George Washington is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games after forcing 11 or fewer turnovers in three consecutive games. Plays on the UNDER on all neutral court teams with a total of 150 to 159.5 (George Washington) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15-plus games are 28-4 (87.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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03-08-23 | Air Force +7 v. UNLV | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +7 Air Force just lost 53-54 at UNLV on February 24th in their second-to-last game of the season. They led that game basically the entire way until a costly turnover leading by 1 in the final seconds that led to a layup by UNLV. No question they want revenge, and there's no sweeter revenge then ending UNLV's season. At the very least, I think this game goes down to the wire, so getting 7 points with the Falcons is a nice value. UNLV is struggling down the stretch going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall with both victories coming by a combined 3 points, and the four losses coming by a combined 49 points. While Air Force is fully healthy, UNLV is without Keshon Gilbert (11.5 PPG, 3.2 APG, 46.1% shooting, 38% 3-pointers). The Rebels lost him in their season finale against Nevada and he has been suspended for this game and won't return until next game if UNLV advances. That's a huge blow for the Rebels as he is their second-leading scorer and it puts a ton of pressure on Harkless to do more. The Falcons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Rebels are 4-11 ATS at home this season, including 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. Bet Air Force Wednesday. |
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03-08-23 | Colorado v. Washington +4 | Top | 74-68 | Loss | -116 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
20* Colorado/Washington Pac-12 No-Brainer on Washington +4 The Washington Huskies have been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 this season going 11-5 ATS in their last 16 conference games. They have beaten Colorado twice already this season, winning 73-63 as 1-point home dogs and 75-72 as 9-point road dogs. Now they are catching 4 points in the 3rd and final meeting, and it will be more of the same here with another upset victory in favor of the Huskies. The key here is that Colorado just lost leading scorer KJ Simpson (15.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.8 APG) to Mono right before the Pac-12 Tournament. They were already without third-leading scorer J'vonne Hadley (8.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and couldn't afford to lose Simpson. Those two combined for 28 points in their first meeting with Washington this season, and 18 points in the second meeting. Not having to deal with those two guys will make the task even easier on the Huskies tonight. Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game. Washington is 27-7 ATS in its last 34 games following a loss. Colorado is 1-7 ATS in its last seven road games following an ATS win. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS following two consecutive conference losses this season. The Huskies are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games after failing to cover the spread last game. Bet Washington Wednesday. |
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03-08-23 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse +3 | Top | 77-74 | Push | 0 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
20* Wake Forest/Syracuse ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +3 Syracuse just beat Wake Forest 72-63 at home to close out the season. The Orange were a PK in that game at home, and now are +3 on a neutral. They should have been favored in that game, and they should be favored in this game as well. We'll gladly take the value and the +3 with the Orange in the rematch. Wake Forest has been a dead team for weeks. The Demon Deacons are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only two victories both coming at home over Georgia Tech by 1 as 13-point favorites and Notre Dame by 8 as 8-point favorites. They lost by 9 at Miami, by 14 at NC State, were upset at home as 8-point favorites by Boston College, and lost by 9 at Syracuse. Wake Forest's season really went in the dumpster when they lost G Damari Monsanto (13.3 PPG, 40.5% 3-pointers) in that loss to NC State. They have been without him for each of their last three games and just aren't very good without his shooting prowess. They are a terrible defensive team allowing 70 or more points in 23 of their last 27 games overall, which is why they can't be trusted laying points. Syracuse is 19-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. The Orange are 35-15 ATS in their last 50 games as neutral court underdogs or PK. Jim Boeheim thrives in these neutral court tournaments and will have his team ready to go to make one final run at the Big Dance. Bet Syracuse Wednesday. |
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03-07-23 | 76ers v. Wolves -2 | Top | 117-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2 The Minnesota Timberwolves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with road wins over the Clippers, Lakers and Kings. Now they have had the last two days off to rest and prepare to face the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. The 76ers don't have that same luxury. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days, which is about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA. They have been life and death in each of their last three games, including last night in a 147-143 shootout win at Indiana. Embiid played 37 minutes, Harden 39 and Maxey 37 last night. The 76ers could elect to rest some starters tonight, and they were already without both Tobias Harris and P.J. Tucker, two starters. They might be wise to just punt this game and rest everyone given the circumstances. Plays against road teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - off a road win scoring 110 points or more, a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days is 58-27 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday. |
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03-07-23 | Bucks v. Magic +7.5 | 134-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7.5 The Orlando Magic have been one of the most profitable teams to back in the NBA over the past couple months. They have gone 26-15 ATS in their last 41 games overall and continue to show up on a nightly basis. They clearly aren't tanking. The Magic are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. Dating back further, the Magic are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss. Adding to their motivation is the fact that they just lost in Milwaukee on March 1st less than a week ago. The Bucks are overvalued right now due to their recent 16-game winning streak that was ended with a 130-133 home loss to Philadelphia. They did go on to beat the Wizards by 6 on the road, and I don't see them getting margin against the Magic tonight, either. This one will got to the wire so getting 7.5 points with Orlando is a nice value. Bet the Magic Tuesday. |
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03-07-23 | Georgia Tech v. Florida State | Top | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
20* Georgia Tech/Florida State ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Tech PK The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have gone 6-2 SU in their final eight games of the season and are playing their best basketball heading into the ACC Tournament. They have gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall as they have consistently been undervalued with four outright upsets during this stretch. They are once again being undervalued as a PK against lowly Florida State, which is 9-22 SU & 12-19 ATS this season while consistently being overvalued. The Seminoles did not finish well going 2-9 SU in their final 11 games with one of those wins coming by 3 against Louisville and the other a miracle 1-point win over Miami after being down 25. The Seminoles are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. They lost by 22 at Va Tech, by 11 at home to UNC, by 6 at home to BC, by 40 at Clemson, by 8 at home to Pitt, by 9 at home to Syracuse and by 28 at NC State. They have rarely even been competitive here down the stretch and are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in the ACC Tournament opener. Bet Georgia Tech Tuesday. |
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03-06-23 | Cleveland State v. Wisc-Milwaukee +2.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
20* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +2.5 Wrong team favored here. Wisconsin-Milwaukee won both regular season meetings with Cleveland State 68-64 as 5.5-point road dogs and 81-72 as 1.5-point home dogs. And here they are in the underdog role against the Vikings again in the conference tournament when they are clearly the better team. Milwaukee upset Wright State 87-70 as 1.5-point dogs in their Horizon League Tournament opener in one of the most impressive performances of the season in this conference. Cleveland State struggled to beat Robert Morris 75-70 as 6.5-point home favorites in their tournament opener. Cleveland State is 0-9 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games this season. Bet Wisconsin-Milwaukee Monday. |
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03-06-23 | Hawks v. Heat UNDER 229.5 | 128-130 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Heat UNDER 229.5 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting between Atlanta and Miami in 3 days. They combined for just 226 points on Saturday and now the total has been set at 229.5 for the rematch, which is too high. I had two bad beats the last two days playing this same situation. I had the Wizards/Raptors UNDER 222.5 on Saturday in a game that was at 210 at the end or regulation but went to OT. I had the Celtics/Knicks UNDER 228 on Sunday in a game that was at 226 at the end of regulation but also went to OT. The system works, we just have to avoid the bad beat of OT. The UNDER is 47-23 in the last 70 meetings. The UNDER is 8-1 in the last eight meetings between the Hawks and Heat with 226 or fewer combined points in eight of those nine meetings. In fact, the Heat and Hawks have combined for 226 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings, making for a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 229.5-point total. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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03-06-23 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers -6 I love the spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will be out for revenge from a 113-117 loss at Boston on March 1st. Now they get to face them again at home this time around five days later. The Cavaliers are 27-7 SU & 23-11 ATS at home this season. The Boston Celtics are struggling going 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They are in an absolutely terrible spot tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a double-OT loss to the New York Knicks last night. Tatum played 48 minutes, Brown, 47, Horford 45, Willaims 44 , Smart 39 and White 32 last night. They won't have anything left in the tank for the Cavaliers and may rest some guys. Cleveland is 8-1 ATS following a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. The Cavaliers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of great than .600. Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 10 points. Bet the Cavaliers Monday. |
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03-05-23 | Knicks v. Celtics UNDER 228 | 131-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
15* Knicks/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 228 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting between the Knicks and Celtics in a week and their 3rd meeting in 5 weeks. In that first meeting back on January these teams combined for 220 points at the end of regulation, and then last week they combined for just 203 points at the end of regulation. As you can see, this 228-point total is way higher than what the Knicks and Celtics combined for in their two recent meetings. There is a ton of value on the UNDER as a result. It will also be a National TV game on ESPN, so the defensive intensity will be there. The UNDER is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 games following a double-digit home loss. Boston is 12-4 UNDER vs. a team that wins 51-60% of their games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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03-05-23 | Blazers v. Magic -2 | Top | 122-119 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2 The Orlando Magic have been one of the most profitable teams to back in the NBA over the past couple months. They have gone 26-14 ATS in their last 40 games overall and continue to show up on a nightly basis. They clearly aren't tanking. The Portland Trail Blazers have some significant injuries that have led to them going just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all three victories coming at home. They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in road games during this stretch losing by 18 at Atlanta, by 18 at Golden State, by 17 at Sacramento and by 8 at Chicago. They are without both Simons (21.1 PPG) and Nurkic (13.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG) right now. Orlando is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after playing two consecutive road games. The Magic are 16-6 ATS vs. Western Conference opponents this season. Portland is 3-13 ATS vs. teams that win 40-49% of their games this season. The Blazers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games. Orlando is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games when playing on one day of rest. Bet the Magic Sunday. |
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03-05-23 | South Alabama v. James Madison | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
20* South Alabama/James Madison Sun Belt No-Brainer on James Madison PK James Madison lost 62-63 as 3-point road favorites at South Alabama in their lone meeting this season. Now the Dukes want revenge, and we are getting them at a better price here at PK in the rematch despite this being on a neutral and not a true road game. The value is there, plus the Dukes have the rest advantage. They will be playing just their 2nd game in 9 days here while South Alabama will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days after beating App State and Southern Miss in their first two games of this Sun Belt Tournament. I don't think the Jaguars will have much left in the tank for the Dukes, who will test their tired legs ranking 31st in adjusted tempo and 9th in average possession length on offense in the entire country. The Dukes average 81.0 points per game this season. They are also 69th in adjusted defense. Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (James Madison) - in conference tournament games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Dukes are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet James Madison Sunday. |
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03-05-23 | East Carolina +11.5 v. UCF | 58-84 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +11.5 East Carolina has quietly gone 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with an upset home win over Tulane, an upset home win over Cincinnati and only a 3-point road loss at Tulane as 12-point dogs. The Pirates are once again catching too many points here as 11.5-point road dogs to UCF. This is a UCF team that is not playing well at all down the stretch and just going through the motions. The Knights are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games overall with two of those wins coming against Tulsa, the worst team in the American Athletic. They cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number with the way they have been playing. ECU wants revenge from a 61-64 home loss to UCF as 5.5-point dogs. Each of the last six meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, making for a 6-0 system backing the Pirates pertaining to this 11.5-point spread. The Pirates are 8-1 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season. The Knights are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. Bet East Carolina Sunday. |
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03-05-23 | South Florida +8 v. Wichita State | 49-69 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
15* CBB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on South Florida +8 These are two very evenly-matched teams here in South Florida and Wichita State and this line should be much closer to PK than 8. South Florida is 4-1 SU in its last five games overall which includes an upset win at UCF as 10-point dogs. Wichita State is coming off a 66-83 loss at Houston on Thursday and now only has two days to get ready for South Florida. I like fading teams after playing the No. 1 team in the country because they just aren't as motivated in their next game out. I think the Shockers suffer a hangover here from that Houston defeat. USF wants revenge from a 66-70 home loss as 2-point favorites to Wichita state in their first meeting this season. So the books have adjusted this number 10 points for home-court advantage now making the Shockers an 8-point favorite in the rematch. That's way too big of an adjustment as Wichita State has actually been better on the road than at home this season, while USF has been at is best on the road. Indeed, the Bulls are 11-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season. Wichita State is 4-12 ATS at home this season. The Bulls are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 road games dating back further. The Shockers are 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 home games dating back further. The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet South Florida Sunday. |
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03-05-23 | Houston v. Memphis +5 | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 2 h 60 m | Show |
20* Houston/Memphis CBS No-Brainer on Memphis +5 The Memphis Tigers are 11-2 in their last 13 games overall with their two losses coming by 1 to Tulane and by 8 on the road at Houston. Now they get their shot at revenge on the Cougars, who don't have much to play for here in what feels like a letdown spot for them. Nobody has played Houston as tough as Memphis in recent meetings. The Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Cougars with three outright upsets and five losses by 8 points or fewer. Memphis is 13-1 SU at home this season with its lone loss coming by a single point. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings with the lone exception being an upset road win by Memphis. The home team has only lost by more than 3 points once in the last 11 meetings, making for a 10-1 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 5-point spread. Bet Memphis Sunday. |
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03-05-23 | Houston v. Memphis UNDER 145.5 | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Houston/Memphis UNDER 145.5 One quick look at the head-to-head series between Memphis and Houston and it's easy to see that this total has been set too high. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 136, 124, 136 and 128 points. The total for the first meeting this season was set at 141 and has now been raised to 145.5 for the rematch, which is an unwarranted adjustment upwards. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Cougars last nine Sunday games. The UNDER is 40-19-1 in Cougars last 60 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 10-2-1 in Tigers last 13 Sunday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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03-04-23 | Connecticut v. Villanova +3 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Villanova +3 Villanova has been competitive in each of its last 10 games since Justin Moore returned to the lineup. Moore is getting better with each passing game and just had 25 points in an upset road win over Xavier three games back. It was a team effort in an 79-67 upset win over Creighton last Saturday that moved the Wildcats closer to making the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats came up clutch again on Tuesday winning 76-72 at Seton Hall. Moore iced that game by making every free throw down the stretch and finished with 23 points. This team is gaining confidence with each passing game and now has an opportunity to put a stamp on its season on Senior Night with an upset win over Connecticut that would likely get them in the NCAA Tournament. UConn comes in overvalued off a blowout home win over a dead DePaul team that has lost 11 consecutive games now. That win clinched a Top 5 seed in the Big East Tournament for the Huskies, and each of the Top 5 seeds get a bye. So I think there will be a bit of a letdown factor here for the Huskies with not much to play for, while the Wildcats have everything to play for. Villanova is 10-2 at home this season with four consecutive home victories coming in. UConn is just an average road team, going 5-5 SU in true road games. The Wildcats are 1st in the country in defending catch and shoot 3's which UConn is a Top 25 team in. UConn is a dominant offensive rebounding team, but Villanova also ranks very highly in defending offensive rebounds. The matchup is a good one for the more motivated home underdog here tonight. Bet Villanova Saturday. |
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03-04-23 | Florida Atlantic -9.5 v. Louisiana Tech | 76-72 | Loss | -111 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Florida Atlantic -9.5 Louisiana Tech (14-16) just lost its bet player in G Cobe Williams (18.8 PPG, 4.1 APG) as he is no longer with the team. The Bulldogs couldn't afford to lose him. He has been off the team for their last five games, a 62-72 home loss to North Texas as 4-point dogs, a 67-74 home loss to Charlotte as 1-point dogs, 66-76 road loss at Western Kentucky as 4.5-point dogs, a 49-63 road loss at Middle Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs and a 1-point home win over FIU as 5-point favorites. So the Bulldogs are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their five games without Williams. Now they have to face the best team in C-USA in Florida Atlantic (27-3). Making matters worse is that they are a tired team playing their 2nd game in 3 days after needing OT to beat FIU on Thursday, so they won't have much left in the tank for the Owls. FAU is trying to make a statement here at the end of the season to try and earn an at-large berth in case they were to lose in the conference tournament. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall winning by 40 over UTSA as 17.5-point favorites, by 26 over UTEP as 12-point favorites and by 29 over Rice as 8.5-point favorites. They should still be very fresh following three consecutive blowouts. FAU is 9-0 ATS following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more this season. The Owls will win this game by double-digits again today. Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday. |
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03-04-23 | Duke v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 62-57 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
20* Duke/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina -2.5 The North Carolina Tar Heels caught fire as an 8-seed and made it to the championship game of the NCAA Tournament last year. They have pretty much the same team back and after going through the motions most of the season, they are playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch. They are squarely on the bubble so will be max motivated. The Tar Heels have won three consecutive games beating Notre Dame on the road, Virginia at home and FSU on the road. Now they have their sights set on revenge from a 57-63 road loss at Duke in their first meeting this season. They shot just 36.4% as a team in that game and just couldn't get a 3 to fall late. But they are heating up from 3 and will be coming into this game with a ton of shooting confidence. Duke is 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in true road games this season. The Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs or PK. UNC is 12-2 SU at home this season. Duke is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Blue Devils are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Bet North Carolina Saturday. |
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03-04-23 | Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech UNDER 140 | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/Texas Tech UNDER 140 This game between Texas Tech and Oklahoma State will be played with extra intensity like it's a NCAA Tournament game. That's because both teams are squarely on the bubble to make the big dance, and both teams need a win like blood. Look for that intensity to show up on the defensive end. Texas Tech ranks 50th in the country in adjusted defense while Oklahoma State ranks 16th, so these are two of the better defensive teams in the country. The Cowboys have failed to top 68 points in three consecutive games coming in and are struggling on offense. The Red Raiders are one of the worst offensive teams in the Big 12 as well. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State have combined for 139 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last five meetings, so this total of 140 is too high given the recent head-to-head history and the situation. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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03-04-23 | Utah v. Colorado UNDER 134.5 | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah/Colorado UNDER 134.5 Both Colorado and Utah are really struggling offensively right now due to injuries. Colorado has scored 68 or fewer points in five consecutive games while averaging just 63.6 points per game during this stretch. Utah has scored 62 or fewer points in four of its last six games overall. Utah is without Madsen (11.7 PPG) and Worster (8.7 PPG, 5.1 APG). Colorado is without Hadley (8.0 PPG) and Ruffin (6.0 PPG) and could be without both Da Silva (16.0 PPG) and Gabbidon (4.6 PPG), who are both questionable. Points are going to be hard to come by again today behind these teams given these injuries. Utah is 8-1 UNDER following two consecutive home games this season. The Utes are 9-2 UNDER in road games vs. teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Colorado is 7-1 UNDER vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game this season. The UNDER is 8-1 in Utes last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 4-1 in Buffaloes last five games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Buffaloes last six games following a loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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03-04-23 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 222.5 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 222.5 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Raptors and Wizards. They combined for 227 points in their first meeting on Thursday but there were fouls and a ton of made shots in the final minute that sent that game over the total. The first meeting saw a total of 222 and this total for the rematch is a tick higher at 222.5. So oddsmakers have failed to adjust for the familiarity factor, and we'll take advantage and back an UNDER that has a ton of value given the spot. It also has a ton of value when you look at the head-to-head history. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 227, 214, 192, 209 and 181 points. They have averaged just 204.6 combined points per game in their last five meetings, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 222.5. Toronto ranks 25th in pace while Washington ranks 21st, so both teams like to slow it down. Toronto is 16-4 UNDER in its last 20 road games after winning five or six of its last seven games. Toronto is 17-6 UNDER in its last 23 home games after winning four or five of its last six games. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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03-04-23 | Kansas v. Texas -2 | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
15* Kansas/Texas ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Texas -2 The Kansas Jayhawks escaped with home victories over West Virginia 76-74 as 9.5-point favorites and Texas Tech 67-63 as 8-point favorites in their last two games to clinch the Big 12 regular season title. Now the Jayhawks are primed for a letdown here as this game really means nothing to them as they are basically locked into a No. 1 seed after winning the toughest conference in the country. I question their motivation tonight, but I have no doubt Texas will be max motivated for revenge from an 80-88 road loss at Kansas. They want to prove they can beat the top dog in the Big 12, and I think they are favored for good reason tonight. The Longhorns have one of the best home-court advantages in the country at 16-1 SU at home this season. The Longhorns are coming off two consecutive road losses to Baylor and TCU to add to their motivation. The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. Kansas is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by 6 points or less. The Jayhawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following five or more consecutive wins. Bet Texas Saturday. |
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03-04-23 | Indiana State v. Bradley -123 | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
15* MVC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley ML -123 The Bradley Braves have now won 11 consecutive games and are the most confident team in the MVC Tournament after winning the regular season title. They did get a little bit of a scare from UNI winning 72-66 in their MVC opener, but they are battle-tested and still very fresh for this game against Indiana State. While Bradley will be playing just its 2nd game in 2 days, Indiana State will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days. So Sycamores were taken to the wire yesterday by Belmont in a 94-91 win that will surely have taken a lot out of them. I don't think they'll have much left in the tank for the Braves today. Bradley beat Indiana State 78-67 on the road in their lone meeting this season. They also won 67-52 at home in their final meeting last season. The Braves are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Indiana State is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game. Bradley is the much better defensive team here ranking 39th in adjusted defensive while Indiana State is just 120th. Bet Bradley on the Money Line Saturday. |
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03-04-23 | Tennessee v. Auburn +2.5 | Top | 70-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
20* Tennessee/Auburn ESPN No-Brainer on Auburn +2.5 After losing six of their last eight games overall, the Auburn Tigers are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. Five of those six losses came on the road. They need this signature win over Tennessee like blood and I trust them to get it at home today. Now the Tigers are back home where they are 13-2 SU this season with their only losses coming to Alabama and Texas A&M. They will be out for revenge from a 43-46 road loss at Tennessee in their first meeting this season. The Volunteers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games losing by 13 at Florida, by 1 at Vanderbilt, by 12 at Kentucky and by 5 at Texas A&M despite being favored in three of those four games. The Volunteers were already banged up, but now they just lost starting PG Zakai Zeigler (10.7 PPG, 5.4 APG) to a season-ending torn ACL last time out. That's terrible news for a Tennessee team that was already struggling on offense all season, especially down the stretch. Not having their floor general out there is going to make them even more stagnant on offense. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two consecutive covers as a favorite. Auburn is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when revenging a loss. The Tigers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss. Bet Auburn Saturday. |
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03-04-23 | Tennessee v. Auburn UNDER 131 | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tennessee/Auburn UNDER 131 The first meeting this season between Tennessee and Auburn set basketball back 100 years. The Volunteers won 46-43 for just 89 combined points. Both teams aren't going to shoot as poorly again, but we have a lot of room to spare to get to this 131-point total. The Volunteers were already banged up, but now they just lost starting PG Zakai Zeigler (10.7 PPG, 5.4 APG) to a season-ending torn ACL last time out. That's terrible news for a Tennessee team that was already struggling on offense all season, especially down the stretch. Not having their floor general out there is going to make them even more stagnant on offense. Tennessee is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 276th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted defense. Auburn ranks 157th in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted defense. The Tigers allow just 64.1 points per game at home this season, while the Vols allow 56.7 points per game overall. The Vols only score 66.5 points per game on the road this season. Tennessee is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games following two consecutive home wins. The UNDER is 29-14 in Volunteers last 43 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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03-04-23 | Louisville +20 v. Virginia | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisville +20 Virginia struggles to get margin due to ranking 360th in adjusted tempo. There just aren't enough possessions in Virginia games for them to get margin. That's why they are such a terrible bet as a big favorite and have been for years, especially this season. Virginia is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall which includes a 48-63 upset loss at Boston College as a 9-point favorite and a 63-71 loss at UNC. The Cavaliers only beat Notre Dame by 2 as 12.5-point home favorites and Louisville by 3 as 16-point road favorites. So Louisville already showed they could hang with Virginia two weeks ago losing 58-61 at home. I am confident they can stay within 20 on the road in the rematch today. Each of the last 14 meetings in this series were decided by 17 points or less, making for a 14-0 system backing the Cardinals pertaining to this 20-point spread. Virginia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a double-digit favorite. Louisville is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games as a road underdog of 10 points or more. The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet Louisville Saturday. |
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03-03-23 | Clippers +6.5 v. Kings | 127-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +6.5 This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Los Angeles Clippers. They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall which includes two OT losses and a blown double-digit lead to the Warriors. They are close to putting it together. I think the Clippers fire back with an inspired effort tonight out for revenge from a historic 175-176 (double OT) loss to the Sacramento Kings in their first game back from the All-Star Break on February 24th. Now they get their shot at revenge here a week later, and I think this one goes down to the wire again, so getting 6.5 points with the Clippers is a really nice value. We'll 'sell high' on the Kings, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall against a soft schedule of the Blazers, that double OT win over the Clippers and beating the Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander twice by single-digits. The Clippers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games after failing to cover four of their last five coming in. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Clippers) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against an opponent that went over the total by 48 or more points in their last seven games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Clippers Friday. |
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03-03-23 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets UNDER 234 | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
15* Grizzlies/Nuggets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 234 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The Nuggets and Grizzlies will be meeting for a 2nd time in 7 days. The Grizzlies won the first meeting 112-94 for just 206 combined points. It will be a similar low scoring game in the rematch here Friday. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the Grizzlies and Nuggets combining for 231 or fewer points in six of those seven meetings. They have combined for 206, 196, 231, 240, 214, 203, and 214 points in their last seven meetings, respectively. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Grizzlies last 17 games overall. The UNDER is 19-7 in Nuggets last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 27-11 in the last 38 meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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03-03-23 | Magic -3.5 v. Hornets | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic -3.5 Tough break for the Charlotte Hornets after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, they lost their best player in La'Melo Ball (23.3 PPG, 8.4 APG, 6.3 RPG) to a season-ending injury. They promptly lost by 14 at home to the Suns in their first game without him. They are also without PJ Washington (15.3 PPG) right now. The Orlando Magic are fully healthy and should make easy work of the short-handed Hornets. The Magic continue to battle here down the stretch, especially when coming off a loss. The Magic are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. Dating back further, the Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. Orlando is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a loss by more than 10 points. Orlando is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 road games. Charlotte is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a loss. The Hornets will have questionable motivation the rest of the way without Ball. Bet the Magic Friday. |
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03-03-23 | Dayton v. St. Louis UNDER 137.5 | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Dayton/Saint Louis UNDER 137.5 The Dayton Flyers are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank 346th in the country in adjusted tempo and 48th in adjusted defense. The UNDER is 6-1 in Dayton's last seven games overall with combined scores of 127, 120, 126, 114, 126, 143 and 130 points. As you can see, six of their last seven games have finished with 130 or fewer combined points. This has been an UNDER series between Dayton and Saint Louis as well. The Flyers and Billikens have combined for just 126, 133, 131 and 129 combined points in their last four meetings, respectively. Dayton won the first meeting 70-56 this season for just 126 combined points in what was a very slow-paced game. It will be more of the same in the rematch. The UNDER is 7-0 in Billikens last seven Friday games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Billikens last six games following a road loss by 10 points or more. The UNDER is 7-1 in Dayton's eight games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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03-03-23 | Akron v. Kent State -4 | Top | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Kent State -4 I love the spot for the Kent State Golden Flashes tonight. They want revenge from a 55-67 road loss at Akron in their first meeting this season. They were 1.5-point road favorites in that meeting, and now are only 4-point home favorites in the rematch. That 2.5-point adjustment for switching home courts isn't enough, especially when you consider Kent State is 14-0 at home and outscoring opponents by 19.2 points per game. Now they go for a perfect home record on Senior Night and will be max motivated. Kent State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games following two consecutive conference wins. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as home favorites of 6 points or less or PK. Akron is 1-7 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season. The Zips are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .400. The Golden Flashes are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games. Bet Kent State Friday. |
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03-02-23 | Washington State v. Washington UNDER 134 | 93-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Washington State/Washington UNDER 134 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Plus Washington State and Washington are huge rivals so the defensive intensity will be there. The Cougars won the first meeting 56-51 for just 107 combined points in Pullman. It should be more of the same here in Seattle in the rematch. Washington State is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 329th in adjusted tempo and 53rd in adjusted defense. The Cougars and their opponents have combined for 120, 130, 133, 142, 107 and 128 points in their last six games overall. As you can see, five of those six games stayed UNDER this 134-point total. Washington and its opponents have combined for 131 or fewer points in four of their last seven games overall. Washington is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds last game. The Cougars are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven road games with a line of +3 to -3. The UNDER is 13-4 in Cougars last 17 road games. The UNDER is 41-20-1 in Cougars last 62 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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03-02-23 | Clippers -3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 91-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
20* Clippers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3.5 I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. We'll 'buy low' on them after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. That assures they will be highly motivated for a victory, and now they've had a few games to work out their chemistry with Russell Westbrook. At their best, this Clippers team is one of the best in the league and would crush this current version of the Golden State Warriors. While the Clippers are fully healthy, the Warriors are without their two best players in Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins right now. They have six players on the injury report currently including Jordan Poole. This version of them isn't good enough to hang with the Clippers, not even at home. Los Angeles is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games after failing to cover five or six of its last seven games coming in. Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Clippers) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against a team that is off a home win where they scored 110 or more points are 31-7 (81.6%) since 1996. Bet the Clippers Thursday. |
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03-02-23 | Wichita State +18 v. Houston | Top | 66-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wichita State +18 Only Memphis and Wichita State have played Houston tough in the AAC in recent seasons. When you look at recent history in this series, the Shockers should not be catching this many points against the Cougars tonight. Wichita State is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Houston. The Shockers haven't lost any of their last five meetings with the Cougars by more than 10 points. They lost by 9 as 13-point home dogs, by 2 as 6.5-point home dogs, by 10 as 11-point road dogs, by 7 as 11-point road dogs upset them by 5 as 7-point home dogs. The Shockers have done their best work on the road this season going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five road games with upset wins at SMU, at Temple by 14 and at Tulane by 7. The Shockers are 9-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season. Wichita State is 35-14-2 ATS in its last 51 road games overall. Bet Wichita State Thursday. |
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03-02-23 | UCF v. Temple | 55-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Temple PK I love the spot for Temple tonight. We'll 'buy low' on the Owls after losing five of their last six games against a brutal schedule. They have been off since February 22nd so they are rested and ready to go and primed for a big effort on Senior Night, their final home game. UCF is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers for a team that is just 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games overall with two of those wins coming against AAC bottom feeder Tulsa. The Knights already lost 70-77 at home to Temple in their first meeting this season as well. UCF is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following three consecutive games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers. Temple is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK. The Owls are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss. Bet Temple Thursday. |
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03-02-23 | Valparaiso +105 v. Murray State | 50-78 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Valparaiso ML +105 I love the spot for Valparaiso after a 76-77 (OT) loss at Murray State in their regular season finale. The Beacons don't have to wait long for revenge and will be facing them on a neutral court this time around. I believe they are the better team based on what I've seen here down the stretch and will get the job done in the rematch. Valparaiso is much better than its record this season and has suffered seven losses in its last eight games, but six of those seven losses came by 10 points or fewer including two by a single point. Murray State is 3-4 in its last seven games overall but has been much less competitive in the losses, losing by 43 at Indiana State, by 34 at home to Drake, by 35 at Bradley and by 15 at Missouri State. The three wins came against Illinois State by 1, Valaparaiso by 1 and Evansville. Valparaiso is 8-2 ATS vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game this season. Wrong team favored here. Bet Valparaiso on the Money Line Thursday. |
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03-01-23 | Texas v. TCU -2 | Top | 73-75 | Push | 0 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on TCU -2 TCU has been one of the best teams in the country when Mike Miles Jr. has been healthy. He returned three games ago and they promptly crushed Oklahoma State 100-75 to end a four-game losing streak. They went on to lose at home to Kansas by 5 due to shooting just 30.3% and missing a ton of layups. But they rebounded with an 83-82 road win at Texas Tech. Now the Horned Frogs have their sights set on revenge from 75-79 road loss at Texas where they blew a 13-point halftime lead in their first meeting this season. I like their chances of getting revenge at home this time around as a short favorite. Texas is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS on the road this season. That includes 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games losing by 11 at Iowa State, by 11 at Tennessee, by 8 at Kansas, by 7 at Texas Tech and by 9 at Baylor. Keep in mind the Bears lost their best player in Keyonte George in the opening minutes of that game over the weekend and they still beat the Longhorns by 9. TCU is 7-0 ATS in home games when revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. The Longhorns are 2-9 ATS as road underdogs or PK over the last two years. The Horned Frogs are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. Bet TCU Wednesday. |
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03-01-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Bucks | 117-139 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7.5 It's time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks following 15 consecutive victories. But now is the spot they let down playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a comeback win at Brooklyn from 10 points down at halftime last night. The Orlando Magic have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past couple months. They have gone 25-13 ATS in their last 38 games overall. The Magic are fully healthy right now and ultra competitive even against the best teams in the NBA. Indeed, the Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Orlando is 8-1 ATS vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game this season. Bet the Magic Wednesday. |
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03-01-23 | Oklahoma +7.5 v. Kansas State | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma +7.5 Oklahoma (14-15) is the best team in the country that currently has a losing record. They have lost a ton of close games this season and still have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament with a big finish here despite their record. They will be the more motivated team here against a Kansas State team that is comfortably in the NCAA Tournament and in the midst of a surprising 22-7 season. Oklahoma clearly matches up well with Kansas State, winning 79-65 as 1.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season. Now this has been a 9-point adjustment for flipping home courts, which is too much. I fully expect this game to go down to the wire tonight. Oklahoma's last three road games were very impressive as they took Baylor to the wire, only lost by 2 at Texas in OT and upset Iowa State by 11 as identical 7.5-point dogs. The underdog is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Bet Oklahoma Wednesday. |
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03-01-23 | Cavs +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland +5.5 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cleveland Cavaliers. They had lost three straight before crushing the Toronto Raptors 118-93 at home on Sunday. Now they have had the last two days off and are rested and ready to go tonight. Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics will be playing in their 4th different city in 7 days. They have been shaky since returning from the break, needing OT to beat the Pacers, winning by 3 over the 76ers and losing by 15 to the Knicks. I fully expect this game to go down to the wire tonight. The Cavaliers have had the Celtics number in their two meetings this season, pulling the 132-123 upset on the road as well as beating the Celtics at home. They clearly match up well with them and that won't change here tonight. Boston is 1-13 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite this season. The Celtics are 0-10 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 10 points. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday. |
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03-01-23 | Suns v. Hornets +10.5 | 105-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +10.5 The public is all over the Phoenix Suns tonight in anticipation of Kevin Durant's debut with the team. That's why they are double-digit road favorites here when they shouldn't be, and we'll take advantage. Chemistry will be an issue for the Suns in the immediate future trying to incorporate Durant, and he'll also be on a minutes restriction. Couple that with the fact that La'Melo Ball just suffered a season-ending injury for the Hornets and the public is really on the Suns. But teams tend to rally in their first game without their superstar, and the Hornets will do just that tonight. The Hornets have quietly gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with three outright upsets as underdogs of 5.5 points or more. They still have plenty of talent without Ball to compete with the Suns with the likes of Oubre Jr., Rozier and Hayward all healthy right now. The Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on two days' rest. The Hornets are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a win. Bet the Hornets Wednesday. |
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03-01-23 | Vanderbilt +10.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +10.5 The Vanderbilt Commodores have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall with an upset road win over Florida as well as upset home wins over both Tennessee and Auburn. They are playing their best basketball of the season and have an outside shot of making the NCAA Tournament, especially if they can beat Kentucky and Mississippi State to close out the season. While the Commodores remain undervalued on a nightly basis and lacking the respect they deserve, the Wildcats are starting to get a ton of respect from oddsmakers after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. It's time to 'sell high' on Kentucky following a blowout home win over Auburn last time out. Vanderbilt as a road underdog is just pure gold. That has been the case in this series as well as Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Kentucky losing by 7 as 14.5-point dogs, by 3 as 11.5-point dogs, by 9 as 21-point dogs, by 9 as 13-point dogs, by 2 as 9-point dogs and by 6 as 10.5-point dogs. As you can see, the Commodores haven't lost by more than 9 points in any of their last six trips to Kentucky. The road team is 20-5-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings. The Commodores are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 road games. Vanderbilt is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Wildcats are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Kentucky is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games following four or more consecutive wins. The Commodores are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game. Bet Vanderbilt Wednesday. |
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03-01-23 | DePaul +17.5 v. Connecticut | 59-88 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +17.5 It's a good time to 'buy low' on DePaul following 10 consecutive losses where they have been competitive with nine losses by 14 points or fewer. That includes an 84-90 road loss at Marquette as 14-point dogs last time out. And now the Blue Demons are once again catching too many points at UConn tonight. DePaul wants revenge from a 76-90 home loss to the Huskies as 11-point dogs in their first meeting this season. I don't see UConn being focused enough to put away the Blue Demons by 18-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this inflated number. We'll 'sell high' on a Huskies team that has won six of their last seven while going 5-2 ATS in the process. DePaul is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 30 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games. UConn is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games after winning six or seven of its last eight games coming in. Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (DePaul) - following 10 or more consecutive losses in Wednesday games are 79-40 (66.4%) ATS since 1997. Bet DePaul Wednesday. |
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02-28-23 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Kansas | Top | 63-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
20* Texas Tech/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on Texas Tech +9.5 Texas Tech is playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch to play itself into the NCAA Tournament. The Red Raiders have gone 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with two losses coming by 1 and 3 points. They are catching too many points tonight against Kansas. The Red Raiders want revenge from a 72-75 home loss to the Jayhawks in their first meeting this season. This is a Kansas team that has been vulnerable at home losing by 23 to TCU, only beating Oklahoma by 4, Iowa State by 2, WVU by 2 and Oklahoma State by 2 in conference play this season. Kansas is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 games following four or more consecutive wins. Plays on road teams as an underdog or PK (Texas Tech) - revenging a home loss against an opponent that is off two consecutive close conference wins by 5 points or less are 170-104 (62%) ATS since 1997. Bet Texas Tech Tuesday. |
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02-28-23 | Virginia Tech v. Louisville +10.5 | 71-54 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisville +10.5 Virginia Tech has now lost four of its last six games overall to fall to 16-13 on the season and will now have to win the ACC Tournament to make the big dance. I think the Hokies will just be playing out the string in these final two games against Louisville and Florida State and will be lacking motivation until they get to the tournament. Louisville has quietly gone 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall with upset home wins over both Georgia Tech and Clemson. The Cardinals have been competitive in 3-point losses to Virginia and Florida State, as well as an 8-point loss at Miami as 20-point dogs. They also covered on the road at Duke. Asking the Hokies to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much tonight given their current mental state. Virginia Tech is 1-9 SU & 1-9 ATS in its 10 road games this season with its lone win coming by 6 at Notre Dame. The Hokies are 11-29-1 ATS in their last 41 road games. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Bet Louisville Tuesday. |
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02-28-23 | Pacers +9 v. Mavs | Top | 124-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers +9 The Indiana Pacers are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with their lone loss coming in OT to the Celtics. They went on the road and beat the Magic by 13 last time out, and I think they take the Dallas Mavericks to the wire tonight. They are as healthy as they have been all season which is a big reason for their recent surge. The Dallas Mavericks are over-hyped right now due to trading for Kyrie Irving. They are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone victory coming against the worst team in the NBA in the San Antonio Spurs. Asking the Mavericks to beat the Pacers by double-digits to beat us is asking too much tonight. The Pacers are 13-3 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days this season. The Mavericks are 13-27 ATS as favorites this season. Dallas is 4-14 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Mavericks are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Pacers Tuesday. |
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02-28-23 | Villanova -120 v. Seton Hall | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Villanova ML -120 Villanova has been competitive in each of its last nine games since Justin Moore returned to the lineup. Moore is getting better with each passing game and just had 25 points in an upset road win over Xavier two games back. It was a team effort in an 79-67 upset win over Creighton on Saturday that moved the Wildcats closer to making the NCAA Tournament. Now the Wildcats will crush Seton Hall on the road tonight. Villanova just beat Seton Hall 58-54 at home on February 11th. But that was a 53-39 game with under 3 minutes to go before a frantic comeback by the Pirates. The Wildcats were clearly the better team, and that will prove to be the case again tonght. Seton Hall has struggled down the stretch going 1-4 SU in its last five games overall with its lone victory coming at home over Georgetown by 8 as 11.5-point favorites. Georgetown is the worst team in the Big East. The Pirates lost by 13 at home to Creighton, by 9 at UConn and by 22 at home to Xavier in the three losses plus the misleading close loss to Villanova. Seton Hall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games when revenging a same-season loss. The Pirates are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. The road team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet Villanova on the Money Line Tuesday. |
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02-28-23 | Kings v. Thunder +3.5 | 123-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 115-124 home loss to the Sacramento Kings on Sunday, and now they get their shot at revenge here just two days later. And there's a chance the Kings won't have De'Aron Fox, who is questionable with a wrist injury and means everything to them. Either way I think the Thunder pull off the upset. The Thunder are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss. Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. The Thunder are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after losing four or five of their last six games. The Kings will suffer a letdown tonight after just beating this team two days ago. Bet the Thunder Tuesday. |
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02-28-23 | Bucks v. Nets +6.5 | 118-104 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +6.5 It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks following 14 consecutive victories, and a great time to 'buy low' on the Brooklyn Nets following two consecutive losses while also losing four of their last five games overall. It was going to take the Nets a few games to form some chemistry following the trades. They played well in Atlanta losing 127-129 as 6.5-point dogs last time out. And now they are back home for the first time since the break and will be highly motivated to try and knock off the Bucks. Don't be surprised to see Milwaukee take them lightly tonight. Brooklyn is 46-29 ATS in its last 75 games as an underdog. The Nets are 19-10 ATS after playing a road game this season. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Brooklyn is 25-9-1 ATS in its last 35 games after allowing more than 25 points in its previous game. Brooklyn has an elite defender in Mikal Bridges to sick on Giannis, which is a factor that is getting overlooked here. Bet the Nets Tuesday. |
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02-28-23 | La Salle +14 v. Dayton | 53-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on La Salle +14 La Salle has quietly gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and have played some very competitive basketball with just one loss by more than 7 points in their last 10 games overall. They are catching too many points here against the Dayton Flyers tongiht. La Salle has done its best work on the road this season. They are 9-2-1 ATS in their 12 road games this season which includes upset wins over UMass, St. Joseph's and St. Bonaventure. They have only one road loss by more than 13 points all season. Dayton just showed they were vulnerable with an upset home loss to George Mason as 11-point favorites last time out. The Explorers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games. La Salle has pulled the upset over Dayton in each of the last two meetings as 9.5-point home dogs and as 11.5-point road dogs. Bet La Salle Tuesday. |
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02-28-23 | Florida v. Georgia +2 | 77-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgia +2 Georgia wants revenge from a 75-82 road loss at Florida in their first meeting this season as 8.5-point underdogs. Now the Bulldogs are catching 2 points at home in the rematch when they shouldn't be underdogs at all. The Gators lost their best player in Colin Castleton (16.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.0 BPG) to a season-ending injury against Ole Miss. That's a huge blow to a Gators team that was already short on talent. They only have one other double-digit scorer, nobody else averages more than 4.7 rebounds per game, and nobody else even averages a block per game. Simply put, Castleton means as much to Florida as almost any other player means to their team in the country. The Gators are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall in what is quickly becoming a lost season. They were outrebounded by 15 by Arkansas in a 19-point loss in their first game without him. They were then outrebounded by 19 in an 8-point home loss to Kentucky in their second game without him. And they were outrebounded by 11 in a 16-point loss at Vanderbilt in their third game without him. Castleton has 12 points, 8 rebounds, 7 blocks and 5 assists in the first meeting with Georgia this season. The Bulldogs will be glad to not have to deal with him this time around. The Bulldogs have been great at home this season going 13-3 SU with upset wins over Auburn, Mississippi State and Kentucky. Florida is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after three straight games being outrebounded by 6 or more. The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Bet Georgia Tuesday. |
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02-28-23 | Marquette v. Butler +9.5 | Top | 72-56 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
25* Big East GAME OF THE YEAR on Butler +9.5 The Marquette Golden Eagles have already clinched at least a share of the Big East title. They can win it outright when they host St. John's on Saturday, so they know they can afford to lose this game to Butler. I don't think they will be fully focused as a result. Butler wants revenge from a 52-60 loss at Marquette as 15-point dogs in their first meeting this season on February 4th. So they already proved they could play with the Golden Eagles on the road, and asking Marquette to beat them by double-digits to beat us here is asking too much. Butler comes in playing some of its best basketball of the season going 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall. The Bulldogs beat St. John's at home and Xavier at home while also upsetting DePaul on the road. The Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win and it's a great time to 'sell high' on them here. They were shaky in their 8-point home win over DePaul as 14-point dogs last time out. The Bulldogs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Butler Tuesday. |
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02-27-23 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
20* Baylor/Oklahoma State ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 142.5 The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between Oklahoma State and Baylor with combined scores of 132, 120 and 115 points at the end of regulation. The total was set at 138.5 in the first meeting between these teams and is now set at 142.5 for the rematch. This adjustment is not warranted, and there's a ton of value with the UNDER tonight. That's especially the case considering Baylor is expected to be without leading scorer Keyonte George (16.3 PPG), who suffered an ankle injury early against Texas and was forced from the game on Saturday. They did a good job of rallying without him, but they are much less potent without him until he returns. They'll be up against the 12th-best defense in the country in Oklahoma State tonight. The UNDER is 4-1 in Bears last five road games. The UNDER is 9-6 in Oklahoma State's 15 home games this season where they are allowing just 62.5 points per game and 39.3% shooting. They are also only scoring 69.5 points per game overall this season and struggle to get anything easy on offense. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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02-27-23 | Magic v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 101-93 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -3.5 This is a great time to 'buy low' on the New Orleans Pelicans following three consecutive road losses to the Lakers, Raptors and Knicks. Now the Pelicans return home highly motivated for a victory where they are 20-10 SU & 17-13 ATS this season. They host an Orlando Magic team that is quickly playing themselves out of playoff contention after going 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. They barely beat the Pistons by 2 as 7.5-point home favorites in their first game back from the break, and were blown out by the Pacers by 13 as 2.5-point home favorites last time out. This is a step up in class for them and now having to go on the road. The Pelicans are 28-14 ATS in their last 42 games after losing four or five of their last six games. New Orleans is 24-13 ATS in its last 37 games as a home favorite. Plays against underdogs (Orlando) - off an upset losses as a favorite, in a game involving two teams that win 40-49% of their games are 26-9 (74.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Pelicans Monday. |
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02-27-23 | North Carolina v. Florida State +8 | Top | 77-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
20* UNC/Florida State ESPN No-Brainer on Florida State +8 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Florida State Seminoles. They are 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. But they are as healthy as they have been in a long time and just showed what they were capable of with an 85-84 upset win at Miami on Saturday. Now the Seminoles will come back highly motivated to upset North Carolina on National TV tonight. The Tar Heels have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season after making it to the championship game as an 8-seed last year. The Tar Heels are 9-19-1 ATS in all games this season. It's a terrible spot for the Tar Heels after beating ranked Virginia at home on Saturday and with their biggest rivals on deck in Duke. That makes this a sandwich spot for them. The Seminoles will be playing only their 2nd game in 9 days, while the Tar Heels will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days. UNC is 6-9 SU & 2-12-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season. The Tar Heels are 1-9 ATS in true road games this season. The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings. The Seminoles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. Bet Florida State Monday. |
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02-26-23 | Rutgers v. Penn State -2.5 | Top | 59-56 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
20* Rutgers/Penn State Big Ten No-Brainer on Penn State -2.5 Penn State (17-11) is trying to play its way into the NCAA Tournament. The Nittany Lions have come up clutch here down the stretch going 3-0 SU in their last three games overall including a 93-81 home win over Illinois. They are now on the 'First 4 Out' line according to Joe Lunardi with some work to do. Now I expect the Nittany Lions to get revenge on Rutgers after losing on the road to the Scarlet Knights in their first meeting. This is a struggling Rutgers team that is 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games overall with its lone win coming by a single point against Wisconsin. They were upset by 10 at home by Nebraska and upset by 13 at home to Michigan during this stretch. Penn State is 12-2 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season. Rutgers is 3-6 SU & 3-5-1 ATS on the road this season and has been a terrible road team in Big Ten play over the past several seasons. The Scarlet Knights are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games. The Nittany Lions are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. Bet Penn State Sunday. |
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02-26-23 | Raptors v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 93-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cleveland Cavaliers. They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall and highly motivated for a victory as a result. The three losses came to the 76ers, Nuggets and Hawks, where they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. So the spots haven't been great for them, but this is a great spot here. The Cavaliers are 25-7 SU & 21-11 ATS at home this season. They had yesterday off and host a Toronto Raptors team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 95-91 win over lowly Detroit last night. It will also be the 2nd road game in 2 days and the 3rd game in 4 days overall for the Raptors. Anunoby played over 38 minutes, Barnes 37, Trent Jr. 36 and Siakam 35 yesterday for the Raptors. They also may be without VanVleet again. Toronto is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Cavaliers are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 Sunday games. Cleveland is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Bet the Cavaliers Sunday. |
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02-26-23 | Cincinnati v. Memphis -5 | 73-76 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
15* Cincinnati/Memphis AAC ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -5 The Memphis Tigers are 12-1 at home this season. They are a highly motivated team right now as they are one of the last teams in the NCAA Tournament according to Joe Lunardi, currently on the 'Last 4 Byes' line. They can't afford to stumble here against Cincinnati. That shouldn't be a problem for the Tigers, who have the Bearcats' number and clearly match up well with them. The Tigers are 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings with all five victories coming by 6 points or more, and the lone loss coming on the road in OT. Cincinnati is 22-50-3 ATS in its last 75 games following a win. Cincinnati is 19-41-1 ATS in its last 61 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after scoring 80 points or more. Bet Memphis Sunday. |
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02-25-23 | Loyola Marymount v. Pepperdine OVER 156 | Top | 75-67 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Loyola-Marymount/Pepperdine OVER 156 Pepperdine has been a dead nuts OVER team this season especially here down the stretch. They are 19-7-1 OVER on the season including 13-2 OVER in their last 15 games overall. They have combined for at least 153 points with their opponents in 14 of those 15 games, so this 156-point total is actually pretty short for them. Pepperdine ranks 9th in the country in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo playing at home. They take on a Loyola-Marymount team that also doesn't mind running ranking in the top half of the country in adjusted tempo. The Lions have allowed at least 70 points in seven consecutive games, including 88 to Pacific and 108 to Gonzaga in their last two games coming in. Pepperdine and Loyola-Marymount have combined for at least 154 points in each of their last three meetings. They combined for 154 points in their first meeting this season with Pepperdine shooting just 38.3% from the field, so you have to expect them to improve on that end. Marymount 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 45% shooting or higher. The Lions are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record after 15-plus games. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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02-25-23 | Oregon v. Oregon State +9 | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +9 The Oregon Ducks have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall to play themselves out of the NCAA Tournament. They know they will now need to win the Pac-12 Tournament to get in, and I expect them to just be playing out the string now until they get there. Oregon State will be the more motivated team and wants revenge from a 68-77 road loss at Oregon as 13.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season. Asking the Ducks to now go on the road and win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. Oregon State has pulled two impressive upsets in its last three home games, beating USC 61-58 as 9-point home dogs and Colorado 60-52 as 7.5-point home dogs. The Beavers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after a combined score of 115 points or fewer this season. Oregon is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 30 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games. The Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Bet Oregon State Saturday. |
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02-25-23 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies -120 | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies ML -120 The Denver Nuggets have a six-game lead over the Memphis Grizzlies for first place in the Western Conference. It's easy to see who is going to be the more motivated of these two teams, and I like the Grizzlies to win at home here Saturday to inch closer to the Nuggets. Adding to Memphis' motivation is that they're coming off a 5-point road loss to Philadelphia, which is one of the toughest places to play in the NBA. The Nuggets pulled the upset in Cleveland with a big 4th quarter in their first game back from the break and won't be as motivated as a result. Speaking of tough places to play, Memphis is 24-5 SU at home this season. Memphis is 38-17-1 ATS in its last 56 home games. The Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS after scoring 105 points or fewer this season. Memphis is 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Denver. Jaren Jackson Jr. is likely going to win Defensive Player of the Year and he matches up with Nikola Jokic as well as any big man in the league can. Bet the Grizzlies on the Money Line Saturday. |
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02-25-23 | Pelicans +3 v. Knicks | Top | 106-128 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans +3 The New Orleans Pelicans are playing better going 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. They lost by 5 on the road at Toronto in their first game back from the break, and I look for them to come back highly motivated for a victory tonight in New York as a result. The Pelicans had yesterday off, while the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after coming back from double-digits down to beat the Washington Wizards 115-109 on the road last night. Julius Randle played over 36 minutes and Jalen Brunson over 38 minutes for the Knicks last night. New York is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 home games following a win. Plays against any team (New York) - following two or more consecutive upset wins as road underdogs, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 103-58 (64%) ATS since 1996. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - following two or more consecutive road losses, a well-rested team playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days are 84-41 (67.2%) ATS since 1996. The road team is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings. Bet the Pelicans Saturday. |
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02-25-23 | SMU v. South Florida OVER 148.5 | 67-71 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on SMU/USF OVER 148.5 South Florida has been a dead nuts OVER team this season. They are 21-7 OVER in all games this season and this is a very low total for a game involving the Bulls. They are a very athletic team that likes to get up and down. The OVER is 20-4 in Bulls' last 24 games overall. We have seen at least 149 combined points in 11 of their last 12 games overall. That includes an 80-82 loss at SMU in their first meeting this season that saw 162 combined points. It should be more of the same in the rematch. SMU is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 149 or more combined points in six of those 10 games. The OVER Is 11-1 in Mustangs last 12 games following an ATS win. This is going to be a carefree game with little defense being played. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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02-25-23 | Florida v. Vanderbilt -3.5 | 72-88 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Vanderbilt -3.5 The Gators lost their best player in Colin Castleton (16.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.0 BPG) to a season-ending injury. That's a huge blow to a Gators team that was already short on talent. They only have one other double-digit scorer, nobody else averages more than 4.7 rebounds per game, and nobody else even averages a block per game. Simply put, Castleton means as much to Florida as almost any other player means to their team in the country. The Gators are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall in what is quickly becoming a lost season. They were outrebounded by 15 by Arkansas in a 19-point loss in their first game without him. They were then outrebounded by 19 in an 8-point home loss to Kentucky in their second game without him. Now the Gators have to go on the road and take on a hot Vanderbilt team that has gone 5-1 SU in its last six games overall while playing its best basketball of the season. The Commodores have won all three home games during this stretch including upset victories over Tennessee and Auburn. Vanderbilt F Liam Robbins (15.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG) is one of the best big men in the country and will have a field day not having to go up against Castleton. Vanderbilt just won 88-80 at Florida on February 11th in their first meeting this season. Robbins had 32 points and 10 rebounds while Castleton had 25 points and 11 rebounds in a tremendous battle of big men. So that's a ton of production the Gators will be missing from that first meeting. The Gators are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Vanderbilt is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 February games. The Commodores are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after a combined score of 155 points or more. Bet Vanderbilt Saturday. |
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02-25-23 | Louisiana Tech v. Middle Tennessee -6 | Top | 49-63 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
25* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Middle Tennessee -6 Louisiana Tech (13-15) just lost its bet player in G Cobe Williams (18.8 PPG, 4.1 APG) as he is no longer with the team. The Bulldogs couldn't afford to lose him. He has been off the team for their last three games, a 62-72 home loss to North Texas as 4-point dogs, a 67-74 home loss to Charlotte as 1-point dogs and a 66-76 road loss at Western Kentucky as 4.5-point dogs. So the Bulldogs are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS without Williams, and now the are in a tough spot here having to playing their 2nd road game in 3 days while being short-handed. This isn't going to go well for them on the road against Middle Tennessee, which is 11-2 SU & 8-2-1 ATS at home this season with a huge home-court advantage. Middle Tennessee blasted LA Tech in the first meeting this season 68-51 on the road even with Williams, who had 22 of their 51 points in the loss. It's easy to see how much they are going to struggle here without him in the rematch. They have failed to top 67 points in any of their last three games without Williams. Middle Tennessee has had the last six days off, which gives them a huge advantage in rest and preparation over LA Tech playing its 2nd game in 3 days. The Blue Raiders are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games following a home win. Middle Tennessee is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite or PK. The Blue Raiders are 16-1 ATS in their last 17 games following two consecutive games with 12 or fewer assists. Bet Middle Tennessee Saturday. |
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02-25-23 | Texas v. Baylor -3 | Top | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor -3 I love the spot for the Baylor Bears today hosting the Texas Longhorns. Baylor had won 10 of its previous 11 games before going on the road and losing to two of the top teams in the conference in Kansas and Kansas State. They fell apart in the 2H of both of those games. Now they return home highly motivated for a victory and primed for one of their biggest efforts of the season. They also want revenge from a 71-76 road loss at Texas in their first meeting this season in a game that wasn't decided until the closing seconds. They'll have their revenge on the Longhorns this time around at home. It's time to 'sell high' on the Longhorns after consecutive home wins over Oklahoma and Iowa State, two teams that are really struggling right now. It's easy to see the Longhorns are overvalued when you compare the line from the first meeting. Baylor was actually a 1-point road favorite in that first meeting, and is now just a 3-point home favorite in the rematch. So the books have only adjusted 2 points for flipping home courts. There is a ton of value on Baylor as a result. Texas is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games. The Longhorns are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a win. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Baylor Saturday. |
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02-25-23 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -1 | 73-68 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
15* K-State/Oklahoma State ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma State -1 The Oklahoma State Cowboys return home highly motivated for a victory after three consecutive losses. After losing at home to Kansas, the Cowboys went on the road and were also beaten badly by TCU and West Virginia. They had won five consecutive games prior to this skid. Now the Cowboys have their sights set on revenge from a 57-65 road loss at Kansas State in their first meeting this season. Oklahoma State is 14-4 SU in its last 18 home meetings with the Wildcats. Kansas State is coming off two consecutive home wins over Iowa State and Baylor. Now the Wildcats hit the road where they are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Oklahoma State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games when playing only its 2nd game in a week. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Oklahoma State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games. Bet Oklahoma State Saturday. |
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02-25-23 | Arkansas +9 v. Alabama | Top | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on Arkansas +9 Alabama has a lot of turmoil and distractions within their program right now. That showed up when they needed OT to squeak out a 78-76 win at lowly South Carolina as 17-point favorites on Wednesday. Now they only have two days to get ready for Arkansas and distractions will be an issue for the Crimson Tide the rest of the way. Arkansas has had the last three days off an is coming off two of its most impressive performances of the season. The Razorbacks crushed Florida 84-65 before beating Georgia even worse, 97-65. So the Razorbacks should still be fresh for this one. A big reason for their recent success is Eric Musselman giving star freshman Nick Smith more minutes. When Smith plays at least 20 minutes, the Razorbacks are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season. He just put up 26 points in the win over Georgia last time out and will be a problem the Crimson Tide have to deal with this time around that they didn't have to deal with in the first meeting. The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Arkansas is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games when revenging a loss, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more. The Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games following two conference wins. Alabama is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games after going over the total in two consecutive games. Bet Arkansas Saturday. |
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02-25-23 | Creighton v. Villanova +4 | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Villanova +4 Villanova has been competitive in each of its last eight games since Justin Moore returned to the lineup. Moore is getting better with each passing game and just had 25 points in an upset road win over Xavier last time out. Now the Wildcats have had the last three days off and will be out for revenge from a 61-66 loss at Creighton on February 4th just three weeks ago in a game that wasn't decided until the final seconds. I think they are showing tremendous value catching 4 points at home today in a game I fully expect them to get their revenge and win outright. Villanova is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games when revenging a loss and outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.8 points per game in this spot. Creighton is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers. The Wildcats are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine home meetings with Creighton. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bet Villanova Saturday. |
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02-25-23 | TCU v. Texas Tech -2.5 | 83-82 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 0 m | Show | |
15* TCU/Texas Tech ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas Tech -2.5 Texas Tech has played its way back into the NCAA Tournament discussion in recent weeks while playing its best basketball of the season. The Red Raiders have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with four consecutive wins coming in with three outright upsets and a win as a 1.5-point favorite. Now the Red Raiders are only 2.5-point home favorites over TCU today and will continue their momentum. The spot is a bad one for TCU coming off a home loss to Kansas, and a hangover can be expected. The Horned Frogs have gone the other direction of late at 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Yet they continue getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here as a short road dog. The Red Raiders will be out for revenge from a 61-67 road loss at TCU in their first meeting this season. They have gone 13-4 SU & 9-7-1 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with TCU. The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games following two consecutive covers. The Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The home team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Texas Tech Saturday. |
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02-25-23 | Michigan State v. Iowa -4 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -4 I love the spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes today. They return home following consecutive road losses at Northwestern and at Wisconsin in which they could just not get a 3-pointer to fall. Indeed, the Hawkeyes went 6-of-52 (11.5%) from 3-point range in those two games combined. But now the Hawkeyes are back home where they have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. Iowa is 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games. They will be out for revenge from a 61-63 road loss at Michigan State in their first meeting this season. The Hawkeyes beat the Spartans 86-60 as 6-point home favorites last season. It's time to 'sell high' on the Spartans, who have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with two home wins over Maryland and Indiana as well as a road win at Ohio State, which is 1-14 in its last 15 games. They also lost by 12 at Michigan and are just 3-5 SU in true road games this season. Michigan State is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. Iowa is 46-21-3 ATS in its last 70 home games. The Hawkeyes are 8-2 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season. The Spartans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after making 88% of their free throws or better last game. Iowa is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after playing a game as a road underdog. Bet Iowa Saturday. |
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02-24-23 | Nevada v. Fresno State +3.5 | 60-56 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
15* Nevada/Fresno State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State +3.5 It's time to 'sell high' on the Nevada Wolf Pack. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall which includes a 77-66 home win over Fresno State as 9-point favorites on February 10th just two weeks ago. That game was much closer than the final score as the Wolf Pack pulled away late, and it was a brutal beat for Fresno backers. The Bulldogs now get their shot at revenge at home this time around here just two weeks later. They are playing competitive basketball going 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games with two losses coming by 2 and 3 points to San Diego State and Colorado State, respectively. They upset UNLV and Air Force on the road while also beating San Jose State by 8 at home. The home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings in this series. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Bulldogs are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following two consecutive games with 8 or fewer turnovers. The Wolf Pack are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games. Bet Fresno State Friday. |
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02-24-23 | Air Force +9.5 v. UNLV | Top | 53-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on Air Force +9.5 The Air Force Falcons have been an undervalued commodity this season at 17-12 ATS in their 29 games. The are much better than they get credit for, and asking UNLV to beat them by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much. UNLV is going through its worst stretch of the season right now going 1-4 SU in its last five games overall. That includes upset home losses to Fresno State as 9.5-point favorites and San Jose State as 6.5-point favorites. A big reason for the Rebels' struggles is the loss of Luis Rodriquez (11.2 PPG), who remains out tonight. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Air Force is 6-1 ATS in its last seven Friday games. The Rebels are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. The underdog is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Bet Air Force Friday. |
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02-24-23 | Hornets +6.5 v. Wolves | Top | 121-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +6.5 The Charlotte Hornets won their final two games going into the All-Star Break upsetting Atlanta as 5.5-point dogs and crushing the Spurs by 10 as 5-point favorites. There's a lot to like about this team moving forward because they are as healthy as they have been in a long time. La'Melo Ball, Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier and Kelly Oubre Jr. have all missed significant time for the Hornets this season which has contributed to their struggles. But they are all healthy coming out of the All-Star Break. They are primed for a big effort here against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves traded away De'Angelo Russell and are still without Karl-Anthony Towns, two of their three best players. They are probably going to be a fade team the rest of the way until Towns returns because Anthony Edwards can't do it all on his own. Charlotte simply owns Minnesota. The Hornets have gone 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Timberwolves with their lone loss coming in OT. They beat the Timberwolves 110-108 as 6.5-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season. Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games when playing in three or more days' rest. Bet the Hornets Friday. |
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02-24-23 | Nets v. Bulls OVER 222.5 | 87-131 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Bulls OVER 222.5 This is a pretty low total for an NBA game. The Nets are better offensively than they get credit for after trading away Irving and Durant and getting back some really nice pieces in Dinwiddie, Bridges and Johnson along with the emergence of Cam Thomas. The Bulls are very healthy coming out of the All-Star Break and should get their offense going after a rough finish to the break with six consecutive losses. Plays on the OVER on all teams with a total of 220 to 229.5 (Chicago) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, winning between 40-49% of their games on the season are 97-57 (63%) since 1996. The OVER is 9-3-1 in Nets last 13 games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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02-24-23 | Knicks v. Wizards +2 | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington Wizards +2 The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They actually rank 3rd in the NBA in net rating over their past 15 games, and only the Cavaliers and Bucks have been better. They should not be home underdogs to the New York Knicks tonight. The Knicks have gone 8-8 SU & 8-8 ATS in their last 16 games overall. They rank 17th in net rating over their past 15 games. They have been below average during this stretch, and they have no business being road favorites here. Washington is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after covering three of its last four coming in. Bet the Wizards Friday. |
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02-23-23 | San Diego +23 v. Gonzaga | 72-97 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego +23 The Gonzaga Bulldogs have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season. They have gone 23-5 SU but just 9-17-1 ATS on the season. And now they are in a terrible spot Thursday with St. Mary's on deck Saturday in a game that will decide the WCC regular season champion. They can't help but look ahead to that game with revenge on their mind after losing to the Gaels in OT in their first meeting. As a result, I expect a flat effort from the Bulldogs tonight that will allow San Diego to stay within this inflated number. The Toreros have been much more competitive here of late going 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They upset Loyola-Marymount by 8 as 3.5-point home dogs, only lost by 5 at Santa Clara as 11.5-point dogs, only lost by 5 at Pacific and only lost by 3 at home to St. Mary's as 13.5-point dogs. There's no way they should be 23-point dogs here to Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are 9-22-2 ATS in their last 33 games overall. Gonzaga is 7-15-3 ATS in its last 25 home games. The Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Gonzaga is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better. Bet San Diego Thursday. |
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02-23-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -5 | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
15* Warriors/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5 The Los Angeles Lakers sit in 13th place in the West and two games out of the play-in round and 3.5 games out of 6th place. It's safe to say they will be fully focused and locked in here for the stretch run to try and make the playoffs. They made some key trades that will help them, and they are fully healthy coming out of the break with both LeBron and Davis probable tonight. The same cannot be said for the Warriors, who will be without their two best players in Steph Curry (29.4 PPG, 6.4 APG) and Andrew Wiggins (17.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG). The Warriors are one of the worst road teams in the NBA this season to boot, going 7-22 SU & 9-20 ATS away from home this season. This one has blowout written all over it. Bet the Lakers Thursday. |
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02-23-23 | Pacific +19.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 52-83 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
20* WCC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacific +19.5 St. Mary's is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall and consistently overvalued here down the stretch. This is all about the spot though as the Gaels have Gonzaga on deck Saturday in a game that will decide the WCC regular season champion. They can't help but to be looking ahead to that game. We saw St. Mary's struggle to put away San Francisco in a 9-point win as 12-point home favorites the game prior to Gonzaga earlier this month. I think they let down enough here to allow Pacific to stay within this inflated number tonight. Pacific has gone 5-3 ATS in its last eight games overall which includes some very impressive performances. The Tigers only lost by 9 as 18-point dogs to Gonzaga, upset Santa Clara outright as 12-point dogs and only lost by 2 at Loyola-Marymount as 9.5-point dogs, easily covering the spread in all three games against three of the better teams in this conference. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The underdog is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bet Pacific Thursday. |
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02-23-23 | Thunder +2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 119-120 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
20* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder come out of the All-Star Break as the 10th and final team to make the play-in round in the Western Conference. They are just 1.5 games out of 6th place and a secured spot. They have a lot to play for the rest of the way and are trending up, ranking 3rd in the NBA in net rating over their last 15 games. Only the Cavaliers and Bucks have been better. The Utah Jazz just made some big trades that indicate they are punting on this season. They are in 11th in the West and faltering, going 2-5 SU In their last seven games while ranking 26th in net rating during this span. They traded away Mike Conley hoping to get Collin Sexton (14.3 PPG) more minutes, but he's out tonight. They also let Russell Westbrook walk to the Clippers. What's left of this roster is an NBA bottom feeder. The Thunder are 44-21-1 ATS in their last 66 road games. Oklahoma City is 25-9-1 ATS in its last 35 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Thunder are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Salt Lake City. Bet the Thunder Thursday. |
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02-23-23 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky -4 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Western Kentucky -4 Louisiana Tech (13-14) just lost its bet player in G Cobe Williams (18.8 PPG, 4.1 APG) as he is no longer with the team. The Bulldogs couldn't afford to lost him. He has been off the team for their last two games, a 62-72 home loss to North Texas as 4-point dogs and a 67-74 home loss to Charlotte as 1-point dogs. Now the Bulldogs go on the road for the first time without Williams and it won't go well for them tonight, either. Western Kentucky wants revenge from an OT loss at Louisiana Tech in their first meeting this season. Williams scored 20 points in 41 minutes for the Bulldogs in that first meeting. Western Kentucky has won three consecutive home games and will be highly motivated not only for revenge, but to bounce back from two close road losses at Charlotte by 4 and at Rice by 6 in their last two games coming in. Bet Western Kentucky Thursday. |
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02-23-23 | USC v. Colorado -2.5 | 84-65 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado -2.5 Colorado has one of the biggest home/road splits in the country and that's the case year in and year out. The Buffaloes are just 4-11 in all games played away from home this season, but they are 11-2 in Boulder with one of the best home-court advantages in the country. I expect Colorado to make easy work of USC tonight. I love the spot for the Buffaloes coming off three consecutive road games at Utah, ASU and Arizona where they did good to come away with one win. Now they are back home tonight for the first time since February 5th. Meanwhile, USC hits the road following a pair of easy home wins over Cal and Stanford. The Trojans were last seen losing by 18 at Oregon and getting upset by 3 at Oregon State in their last two road games. Bet Colorado Thursday. |
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02-23-23 | Pelicans +6 v. Raptors | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
20* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans +6 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the New Orleans Pelicans. They went 4-12 SU & 5-10-1 ATS in their final 16 games going into the All-Star Break as they were really banged up. They are still without Zion Williamson, but they are healthy everywhere else and come out of the break playing with a chip on their shoulder. They are just a half-game back of the 6th spot in the West to avoid the play-in round despite their recent struggles. I like their chances of staying within 6 points of the Toronto Raptors, who we'll 'sell high' on after winning five of their final six games going into the break against an extremely soft schedule of Houston, San Antonio, Detroit, Orlando, Utah and Memphis. Both OG Anunoby and Thaddeus Young are questionable for the Raptors tonight. Toronto is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 home games following a win by 10 points or more. The Pelicans are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Toronto. Bet the Pelicans Thursday. |
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02-23-23 | Nuggets v. Cavs -2 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers -2 The Denver Nuggets are fat and happy coming out of the All-Star Break sitting in first place in the West with a five-game lead over Memphis. I don't expect them to come out of the break playing with a sense of urgency. They definitely aren't healthy coming out of the break with Jamal Murray (20.2 PPG, 5.8 APG) battling a knee injury and questionable, while Aaron Gordon (17.3 PPG, 6.9 APG) is out. Cleveland went into the break playing some of the best basketball in the NBA going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their final eight games with all seven victories coming by 8 points or more. They did lost at Philadelphia in their final game, and that will help them come out of the break more motivated. Not that they are lacking any motivation as they are in 4th place in the East and only five games back of first place. The Cavaliers come out of the break fully healthy with the exception of Ricky Rubio, who they have been without for most of the season anyway. They have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA going 25-6 SU & 20-10-1 ATS at home this season while outscoring opponents by 8.8 points per game. Denver is a mediocre 14-4 SU & 12-16 ATS on the road this season. Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games following three consecutive games where they made 47% shots or better, including 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games following two consecutive games where they made 50% of their shots or better. Cleveland has the big men defensively that will make life on Nikola Jokic much more difficult than he's used to on a nightly basis. Bet the Cavaliers Thursday. |
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02-23-23 | Pistons v. Magic -6.5 | 106-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -6.5 I keep riding the Orlando Magic and they keep delivering. The Magic have quietly gone 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, Denver and the Clippers among others. They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for. Now the Magic come out of the break with their sights set on revenge from two losses at Detroit in their first two meetings this season, both of which came in 2022. They have been a completely different team in 2023 with a positive net rating over their last 15 games. They are much better than the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons look to be tanking and there's just not much to like about them right now. They lost five of their final six games prior to the All-Star Break with their lone win coming at home over the lowly Spurs in OT. They rank 27th in the net rating over their past 15 games and 28th on the season. They sit at 15-44 on the season. Orlando is 13-3 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season. The Magic are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss. Orlando is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following a SU loss. Bet the Magic Thursday. |
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02-23-23 | North Texas -2.5 v. Charlotte | 49-55 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on North Texas -2.5 North Texas (23-5, 14-3 C-USA) is a half-game back of Florida Atlantic for first place in Conference USA. They have a lot to play for here down the stretch and won't be taking Charlotte lightly tonight. That's key here because they won't be complacent after crushing Charlotte 67-43 at home in their first meeting this season. Now they come back as just 2.5-point road favorites here in a game they should win going away. Charlotte is just 4-6 SU & 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games overall with the four wins coming against WKU (twice by 4), LA Tech without Cobe Williams and UTEP. They don't have much of a home-court advantage as they have lost three of their last four home games despite being 7.5-point favorites in two of them. North Texas is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 February games. The Mean Green are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games following three consecutive covers as a favorite. Charlotte is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following two consecutive conference wins. The Mean Green are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. North Texas is 23-8-3 ATS in its last 34 road games. Bet North Texas Thursday. |
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02-23-23 | Penn State +2 v. Ohio State | 75-71 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Penn State +2 Penn State sits at 16-11 on the season and currently on the 'Next 4 Out' line according to Joe Lunardi. That means they have some work to do to make the NCAA Tournament, and thus they won't be taking Ohio State lightly tonight. Ohio State has been the single-most overrated team in the country in conference play this season. They have gone just 1-13 SU & 1-13 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Yet here they are once again a home favorite over a team they shouldn't be favored against. Their last three games have seen the Buckeyes lose by 27 at Purdue, by 17 at Iowa and by 21 at home to Michigan State. Not to mention, they just lost Zed Key (10.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG) to a season-ending injury and will no longer have him the rest the way. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Wrong team favored here. Bet Penn State Thursday. |
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02-22-23 | New Mexico +6.5 v. Boise State | Top | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
20* New Mexico/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico +6.5 New Mexico opened 19-3 this season and looked like a shoe-in to make the NCAA Tournament. Instead, they have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall to put their tournament hopes in jeopardy. It's now time to 'buy low' on the Lobos as 6.5-point road underdogs at Boise State tonight. The loss at Utah State that started this poor run is understandable, and then they lost on a buzzer-beater at home to Nevada. They lost their best player on Jaelen House (16.9 PPG, 4.6 APG) in that loss to Nevada for two games, which saw them get upset by Air Force and Wyoming. House returned to help lead the Lobos to a 96-68 blowout victory at San Jose State and he makes all the difference for this team. The Lobos last played on Friday and have had the last four days off to rest and recover and prepare to beat Boise State again after already topping the Broncos at home in their first meeting. Meanwhile, Boise State has only had the last two days off after a narrow 73-69 home win over UNLV on Sunday. That's a big edge in rest and preparation for the Lobos. Boise State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after two straight games making 78% of their free throws or better. The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and once again overvalued here as a 6.5-point home favorite in a game that is likely going to come down to the final possession. Bet New Mexico Wednesday. |
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02-22-23 | Tulane +15.5 v. Houston | Top | 59-89 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulane +15.5 Tulane is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall and continues to be undervalued here as a 15.5-point road underdog to Houston. The Green Wave have pulled off impressive road wins as underdogs at Wichita State and at Memphis while also crushing USF by 18 on the road during this stretch. The Green Wave now have their sights set on revenge from a 20-point home loss to Houston as 10.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 17th. This team has improved by leaps and bounds since then, and has played their best basketball on the road this season. The Green Wave are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Houston has consistently been overvalued at home this season, especially in conference play. The Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. They only beat UCF by 6 as 15-point favorites, South Florida by 6 as 23-point favorites, lost outright to Temple as 19-point favorites, only beat Cincinnati by 6 as 14-point favorites and only beat Memphis by 8 as 14.5-point favorites. Tulane is 6-0 ATS after playing a road game this season. The road team is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings as home-court advantage has meant very little in this series. The Cougars will get more of a battle than they bargained for tonight. Bet Tulane Wednesday. |
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02-22-23 | St. John's v. Georgetown +2.5 | 79-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgetown +2.5 The Georgetown Hoyas have quietly gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They have just two outright wins to show for it during this stretch, but their hard work will pay off tonight as they get an upset home victory over a team they can handle in St. John's. The Hoyas will be out for revenge from a 73-75 road loss at St. John's in their first meeting this season. Now they get them at home this time around and face a struggling Red Storm team that has gone just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall with five losses by 8 points or more. The Red Storm are just 2-7 SU in true road games this season. St. John's is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet Georgetown Wednesday. |
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02-22-23 | South Florida v. UCF OVER 141 | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on South Florida/UCF OVER 141 South Florida has been a dead nuts OVER team this season. They are 20-7 OVER in all games this season and this is a very low total for a game involving the Bulls. They are a very athletic team that likes to get up and down. In their first meeting this season, USF pulled the 85-72 upset as 4.5-point home underdogs over UCF in a game that saw 157 combined points. It's not like either team shot lights out either as USF shot 44.3% while UCF shot 41.8%. So there's actually room for improvement offensively from both teams in this rematch. UCF is 7-0 OVER when revenging a loss this season. The OVER is 8-0 in Bulls last eight games following an ATS loss. The OVER is 9-0 in Bulls last nine road games. The OVER is 6-0 in Bulls last six home games. These four trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the OVER tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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02-22-23 | Kentucky -2.5 v. Florida | Top | 82-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
20* Kentucky/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Kentucky -2.5 The Kentucky Wildcats have gone 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and are playing their best basketball of the season right now. I expect them to put it on the Florida Gators, who are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall in what is quickly becoming a lost season. The Gators lost their best player in Colin Castleton (16.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.0 BPG) to a season-ending injury. That's a huge blow to a Gators team that was already short on talent. They only have one other double-digit scorer, nobody else averages more than 4.7 rebounds per game, and nobody else even averages a block per game. Simply put, Castleton means as much to Florida as almost any other player means to their team in the country. They lost their first game without Castleton 65-84 at Arkansas and were outrebounded by 15. Kentucky beat Florida 72-67 as 4.5-point home favorites in their first meeting this season despite 25 points, 8 rebounds and 3 blocks from Castleton. They won despite their best player in Oscar Tshiebwe going 2-of-14 for 4 points as Castleton shut him down. Without him now, the Gators have no chance of stopping Tshiebwe inside and will get dominated on the boards. Bet Kentucky Wednesday. |
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02-22-23 | Vanderbilt -2.5 v. LSU | 77-84 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Vanderbilt -2.5 The Vanderbilt Commodores are quietly playing their way back into the NCAA Tournament discussion. They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall which includes upset home wins over Tennessee and Auburn as well as an upset road win at Florida. Now the Commodores should have no problem making it six in a row against the worst team in the SEC in the LSU Tigers. The Tigers are 0-14 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall with 12 losses by 8 points or more as they have rarely even been competitive. They just lost by 9 as 7.5-point home favorites to South Carolina and look to have quit on their season. Vanderbilt is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games following a conference win. The Commodores are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games with a total set of 140 to 149.5. Vanderbilt is 37-17-1 ATS in its last 55 road games, including 22-6-1 ATS in its last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet Vanderbilt Wednesday. |
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02-22-23 | Bradley v. Valparaiso +8.5 | 76-66 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Valparaiso +8.5 Bradley is tied with Drake for for first place in the Missouri Valley with two games remaining. Well, Bradley hosts Drake on Sunday in a game that will decide the the regular season conference champion. I have no doubt the Braves are looking ahead to that game and overlooking Valparaiso here. Valparaiso has been much better than its record would indicate. The Beacons are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall, which includes OT losses at home to Drake and on the road at Missouri State. They have proven they can play with the best teams in the conference, and I expect them to take Bradley to the wire tonight. Valparaiso is 8-6 SU at home this season with only two losses all season by more than 7 points. Bradley is 14-1 at home but just 7-7 SU & 5-9 ATS in their 14 games played away from home. The Beacons are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six home meetings with Bradley. Bradley is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after scoring 60 points or less. The Braves are 1-12 ATS in their last 12 road games after allowing 25 points or fewer in the first half last game. The Beacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. The home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bet Valparaiso Wednesday. |
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02-21-23 | Indiana v. Michigan State -3 | 65-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
15* Indiana/Michigan State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State -3 I like the spot for Michigan State tonight. They are coming off a road loss at Michigan and will be looking to bounce back at home where they are 10-2 SU this season with their two losses coming to Purdue by 1 and Northwestern early in the season. The spot favors the Spartans as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 9 days. Meanwhile, Indiana will be playing in its 3rd different city in 7 days. The Hoosiers are coming off a big comeback 71-68 home win over Illinois who were playing without their best player in Shannon. They also lost by 2 at Northwestern the game prior, and each of their last five games were decided by 6 points or fewer. They have been through the gauntlet and won't have much left in the tank for Michigan State. The Spartans want revenge from a road loss at Indiana in their first meeting this season. I like their chances of getting revenge considering they are 18-2 SU & 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home meetings with the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. The Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The home team is 26-10 ATS in the last 36 meetings. Bet Michigan State Tuesday. |