15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +9

The Pepperdine Waves are loaded this season with four starters and 82.5% of their minutes returning from last year.  Each of their top three returning scorers all made 34.9% or better from 3-point range.  This looks like Lorenzo Romar’s best team yet in his second stint in Malibu.  Senior Colbey Ross (20.5 PPG last year) is back along with junior wing Kessler Edwards (14.0 PPG).

The Waves are off to a 2-1 start this season.  They beat UC-Irvine 86-72 before losing to UCLA 98-107 in three overtimes.  They came back with a 94-45 win over St. Katherine.  That means they have played the exact same three opponents as San Diego State, which beat UCLA 73-58, UC-Irvine 77-58 and St. Katherine 83-41.  Those are two nearly identical results plus the win over UCLA.  But Pepperdine played UCLA tough, too.

San Diego State was a nice story last year in going 30-2 and nearly getting through the regular season unbeaten.  But they lose three starters from that team, including Mountain West Player of the Year Malachi Flynn.  Tanni Wetzell transferred to Vanderbilt and K.J. Feagin is pursuing a professional career in Germany.

Pepperdine is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Waves are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. good pressure teams that force 18 or more turnovers per game.  Pepperdine is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  The Waves are 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  This 9-point spread is simply too much today.  Take Pepperdine Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona Cardinals +3

I lost with Arizona last week.  And because they lost to the Patriots, there is even more value with them this week.  They outgained the Patriots by 119 yards and held them to 179 yards but found a way to lose.  Their kicker has not cost them two games this year as he missed a 45-yarder which allowed the Patriots to go down and kick the game-winning 50-yarder at the buzzer.

The Cardinals were also stopped twice from the 1-yard line right before halftime which turned out to be a 7-point swing.  And they had a phantom late hit on Cam Newton on the final drive on a 3rd-and-13 that set the Patriots up in field goal range.  They really deserved to win that game. But now that the Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, this is a great ‘buy low’ spot on them.

I don’t know how Jared Goff can be trusted as a road favorite here.  The Rams had four turnovers again last week and just 308 total yards in a 20-23 upset loss to the 49ers.  Goff goes hot and cold, but Kyler Murray shows up every week and I trust him more.  The Cardinals want serious revenge from six straight losses to the Rams in this series as well.

Arizona is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 home games off a loss by 6 points or less.  The Cardinals are 47-26 ATS in their last 73 home games off two or more consecutive losses.  Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Cardinals have just two losses in 11 games by more than 3 points this season, and both came on the road to the Panthers and Seahawks.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Arizona) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -3.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are loaded this season.  They went 19-12 last year and returned 70% of their scoring.  Back to lead the way are seniors Brady Manek (14.4 PPG last year) and Austin Reaves (14.7 PPG).

You could say the Sooners got off to a great start this season with a 105-66 win as 15-point favorites over UTSA on Thursday.  And now they are ready to take down a rebuilding TCU team that is very fortunate to be 4-0 this season.

Indeed, the Horned Frogs are 4-0 SU but just 1-3 ATS.  They only beat Tulsa by 5, Liberty by 4 and Northwestern State by 6 as 18.5-point favorites.  Now they take a big step up in class here and all that they lost in the offseason will take its toll.

TCU lost 11 of its final 14 games last season.  They lost the program’s third all-time leading scorer in Desmond Bane.  They lost PG Kendric Davis in the transfer portal to SMU.  That is proving to be a huge loss as Davis is averaging 21.3 PPG and 8.0 APG through four games with the Mustangs.

The Sooners are 6-0 SU in their last six meetings with TCU.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Horned Frogs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as underdogs.  Bet Oklahoma Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns +5.5

The Tennessee Titans are overvalued after winning in upset fashion in back-to-back weeks over the Ravens and Colts.  Now they are 5.5-point favorites here against a Cleveland Browns team with the same record (8-3) as them.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Titans this week.

The Titans took advantage of a banged-up Colts team last week that was missing several key players on defense and offense due to either injury or Covid-19.  So their 45-26 blowout win has them overvalued, and now they are asking to get margin here against the Browns.  

The Titans are just 2-5 ATS as favorites this season.  One of those covers was as a 6.5-point favorite over the Bears in a 7-point win.  The other was as 3.5-point favorites over the Texans where they won by 6 in overtime.  So they haven’t won a single game as a favorite by more than one score all season.

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Browns, who are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  But they have gone 4-2 SU during this stretch.  And they deserved to cover against the Jaguars last week but let them in the back door after a phantom roughing the passer penalty in a 27-25 win.  They took the Jaguars for granted, but they won’t do the same this week.  They’ll go back to feeling disrespected here and give their best effort.

The Browns get their best defensive player in Myles Garret back from Covid-19 this week after he missed the past few games.  He’ll wreak havoc on a banged-up Titans offensive line that is starting backups at both tackle positions.  And they are also missing key blocker and receiver Jonnu Smith at tight end.  Guard Rodger Safford is also questionable at guard.

Stopping the run is the key to stopping the Titans and Derrick Henry.  The Browns have done a good job of that this season in allowing 108 rushing yards per game.  The Titans haven’t really stopped anyone.  They are giving up 25.9 points and 384.1 yards per game on the season.

The Browns have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL at 161 yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  And they even played without Nick Chubb for several games, but he’s back healthy and doing his thing now alongside Kareem Hunt.  The Titans give up 116 rushing yards per game.  Tennessee is also 31st in pressure rate, so Baker Mayfield will have time to throw the ball and make plays through the air.  Mayfield is averaging 9.7 yards per game in his three games against teams that rank in the Bottom 5 in pressure rate this season.

The Titans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog.  Tennessee is 19-35 ATS in its last 54 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +3

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the New Orleans Saints this week.  They have won eight straight games coming in and have covered four in a row as well.  And they are coming off a 31-3 win over the Denver Broncos, who didn’t have a quarterback last week.

But this Saints offense hasn’t done much with Taysom Hill as their starter.  They only managed 292 total yards against the Broncos last week.  And the Falcons should be a lot better against him having just faced him two weeks ago in their 24-9 loss.

The Falcons got out to a 9-3 lead but had to settle for field goals on each of their first three scoring drives.  The Saints took over in the second half and dominated.  The Falcons have not forgotten, and they want revenge in a big way here.  There’s a nice system on teams facing each other twice in three weeks.  The team that lost the first meeting has gone 19-4 ATS in the last 23 in the second meeting.

The Falcons are still playing hard for Raheem Morris and have gone 4-2 with him as their interim coach with one of those a 1-point loss.  They are coming off a 43-6 beat down of the Raiders last week that really showed their potential.  And now they are expected to get Julio Jones back in the lineup this week from a hamstring injury after he was forced out of the Saints game last time.

The injury situation is not great for the Saints.  They have key injuries at cornerback, defensive line and offensive line.  They will be without CB Janoris Jenkins and could be without CB Patrick Robinson.  DE Marcus Davenport is out, and T Terron Armstead is out with Covid-19.  DT Sheldon Rankins is questionable as well.  And obviously Hill is a downgrade from Brees at QB.

The Falcons are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four December games.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -11

This is a great ‘buy low’ spot on the Utah Utes after opening the season 0-2 SU under the best head coach in the conference in Kyle Whittingham.  I trust him to get this thing turned around.  The two losses have come to two of the best teams in the conference in USC and Washington.

Utah uncharacteristically gave both of those games away by committing five turnovers against USC and four more against Washington.  Whittingham-coached teams don’t make those kinds of mistakes.  And I think the slow start to the season has to do with all the Covid-19 issues with in the program that cut short their practice time.  But now with two games under their belts, this team should only get sharper as the season goes on.

Look for Utah to put its best foot forward here against Oregon State.  And it’s a great time to ‘sell high’ on the Beavers, who are coming off two straight wins and are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They just won their ‘Super Bowl’, beating arch rival Oregon outright 41-38 as a 13-point underdogs.  And now this is a huge letdown spot for the Beavers this week.

Unfortunately for Oregon State, they lost starting QB Tristan Gebbia to a hamstring injury on the game-winning drive as he was trying to go in on a QB sneak.  Now they will start backup Chance Nolan, and this is a big downgrade.  They are going to have to rely even more on their running game and star RB Jermar Jefferson, who has rushed for 675 yards and seven touchdowns.

But this is a terrible matchup for Jefferson and this Oregon State offense.  Utah has one of the best defensive lines in the country.  They are giving up just 90 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry against USC and Washington.  Their weakness has been against the pass, but that won’t be a factor here against backup QB Nolan.

Utah should really gets its offense going against an Oregon State defense that gives up 32.5 points and 442.8 yards per game this season.  We saw that last year when Utah blasted Oregon State 52-7 and racked up 503 total yards int he victory.  They held the Beavers to just 217 total yards, including only 48 rushing on 22 attempts.  It will be more of the same in this 2020 meeting.

Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games.  The Utes are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Stanford +12

Stanford is just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season.  So this is a good ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Cardinal this week as they travel to take on Washington.  They have played a very tough schedule which is the reason for their slow start.

They lost by 21 to Oregon in a game that was much closer than the final score.  They went 0-for-4 on field goal attempts in that game and had two other drives in Oregon territory end with zero points.  Plus, they were without QB Davis Mills and their star WR for that game due to Covid-19.

Then Mills returned and they lost by 3 to Colorado in their next game.  That’s a Colorado team that is the surprise of the Pac-12 thus far at 3-0 with three quality wins.  And last week they went on the road and beat California after a missed extra point by the Golden Bears in the final minutes.  That win re-energized this team as you could tell how elated they were to get the victory.

Washington is overvalued due to being 3-0 this season, but are just 1-2 ATS.  The Huskies have played the much softer schedule.  They only beat Oregon State by 6, Arizona by 17 and Utah by 3 all at home.  Those three teams are a combined 2-7 this season.  They needed a 21-point second half comeback to beat Utah last week, 24-21, and that comeback effort will have taken a lot out of them.  They were aided by four turnovers from the Utes.

Stanford owns Washington in going 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings.  That includes a 23-13 upset win as 13.5-point underdogs last season.  And Washington has a huge game on deck against Oregon next week.  The Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  This line should not be double-digits.  

The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cardinal are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 December games.  Washington is 14-28 ATS in its last 42 games after forcing four or more turnovers in its previous game.  David Shaw is 11-3 ATS off a win by 6 points or less as the coach of the Cardinal.  Take Stanford Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State ML +105

The Ball State Cardinals are very close to being 4-0 this season.  They deserved to win their opener against defending MAC champ Miami Ohio but lost 31-38.  They had 478 total yards and outgained them by 59 yards.  But they have reeled off three straight victories since, including an impressive 27-24 win at Toledo as a 10-point dog last week, which is one of the best wins in the MAC this season.

And that game against Toledo was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  Ball State led 27-9 with under six minutes left before Toledo tacked on two garbage time touchdowns to make the final look closer.  And I think because of that we are getting great value on Ball State as an underdog against Central Michigan, a team they are better than.

Ball State boasts a prolific offense that puts up 31.8 points, 469 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They have arguably the best QB in the MAC in Drew Pitt, who is picking up right where he left off last season.  He is completing 68.3% of his passes for 1,059 yards and six touchdowns this season.  RB Caleb Huntley is also one of the best backs in the MAC with 437 rushing yards and six scores while averaging 5.5 per carry.

Central Michigan is very fortunate to be 3-1 this season.  They won by 30-27 over Ohio and had to come back from a 20-6 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat a bad Eastern Michigan team last week.  And they lost starting QB Daniel Richardson to injury late in that game and will now be down to a third-string QB in Ty Brock since backup David Moore is ineligible.  That’s a bad look for the Chippewas.

Ball State wants revenge from a 44-45 loss to Central Michigan as a 1-point favorite last year.  The Cardinals are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 7 points or less.  Ball State is 47-23 ATS in its last 70 games as a road underdog, and 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog overall.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings at Central Michigan.  The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  We don’t even need the points here.  Bet Ball State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Louisiana/App State ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 51.5

It’s expected to be 32 degrees Friday night with a 99% chance of rain and winds of 25 to 35 MPH in Boone, North Carolina.  That’s where this game will be played inside Appalachian State’s home stadium.  And the weather has me really liking this UNDER.

Not to mention, these teams are very familiar with one another after meeting in the Sun Belt Championship Game each of the past two seasons.  In fact, they have played four times since 2018, with three of the four meetings seeing 49 or fewer combined points and the UNDER going 3-1 in those four meetings.

Both teams are going to have to run the football even more than they are accustomed to with the weather conditions.  And both teams already love to run the ball anyway.  Louisiana averages 38 rush attempts for 217 yards per game and 5.8 per carry.  Appalachian State averages 46 rush attempts, 257 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry.

Both teams have elite defenses as well.  Louisiana gives up 21.9 points per game, 354.2 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  Appalachian State gives up 18.0 points per game, 320.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.

Appalachian State is 21-7 UNDER in its last 28 games after outgaining its last opponents by 225 or more total yards.  Louisiana is 8-1 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two years.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (Appalachian State) - a dominant team outgaining opponents by 100+ yards per game against a good team (+50-+100 YPG) after 7-plus games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game are 28-6 (82.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -19.5

The Virginia Cavaliers were a Top 5 team coming into the season.  But they were upset 60-61 as 15-point favorites over San Francisco.  They are undervalued as a result of that loss. Their other two games have been dominant with an 89-54 win over Towson State and a 76-51 win over St. Francis.

Now the Cavaliers should make easy work of a rebuilding Kent State team tonight.  The Golden Flashes lost five of their top six scorers from last season.  They return just one player who averaged at least 4.5 PPG and 2.5 RPG last season.  And they will be playing just their second game of the season after a cake walk game against Point Park.

The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Virginia is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  That early wake up call in a loss to San Francisco will keep the Cavaliers focuses in the immediate future to put teams like Kent State away for 40 minutes.  Take Virginia Friday.

20* Air Force/Utah State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Air Force -11

The Air Force Falcons should make easy work of the Utah State Aggies tonight.  Air Force is just 2-2 and undervalued due to that .500 record in which they have played much better than their record would indicate.

For starters, the Falcons are outgaining opponents by 79.0 yards per game on the season. They are still an elite rushing team with 336 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry.  And their defense has been very good in allowing just 18.3 points and 324.5 yards per game this season.

Utah State is one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS this season.  They are scoring just 17.2 points per game and averaging 284.6 yards per game on offense.  They are giving up 35.2 points and 490.2 yards per game on defense.  They are getting outscored by 18.0 points per game and outgained by 205.6 yards per game.

Utah State is now getting too much respect after upsetting New Mexico 41-27 as 6.5-point dogs last week.  That’s the same New Mexico team that Air Force beat 28-0.  And keep in mind Air Force’s only two losses came against two of the best teams in the Mountain West in Boise State and SJSU.  Air Force was only outgained by 3 yards by SJSU and actually put up 484 yards on Boise State and outgained them by 25 yards.  Utah State lost 13-42 to Boise State and was outgained by 247 yards.

Utah State gives up 203 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  They aren’t going to be able to slow down the Falcons’ triple-option attack.  Air Force is 33-13 ATS in its last 46 road games after allowing 14 points or fewer last game.  The Aggies are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games as underdogs, including 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as home dogs.  The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Air Force Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Niagara +20

Head coach Greg Paulus, the former Duke standout, is in his second year at Niagara.  I expect big things from him and this team this year.  They return all five starters from last year and four of their top five scorers.

Syracuse has been dealing with Covid-19 issues and it showed in their opener against Bryant.  They had just one day of practice before nearly getting upset by Bryant in an 85-84 win as 22.5-point favorites.  Niagara is much better than Bryant and should not be catching 20 points here.

Last year, Syracuse only beat a bad Niagara team 71-57 as 22.5-point favorites.  And I have no doubt this Niagara team is way better than that team, while Syracuse is down this year.  Especially now that 6-10 senior Bourama Sidibe went down with a torn meniscus against Bryant.

Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 over the last three seasons.  The Orange are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Syracuse is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games as a favorite.  Roll with Niagara Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas-Little Rock ML +100

Arkansas Little-Rock returns all 5 starters from a team that went 21-10 SU & 21-10 ATS last year.  Forward Kris Bankston led the nation in field goal percentage in 2018-19 returns after missing much of last season to essentially give them six starters back.

PG Markquis Nowell led the Trojans with 17.2 points, 4.9 assists and 2.2 steals per game last season while also shooting 39.1% from 3-point range and 87.9% from the FT line.  Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Ruot Monyyong is back after averaging 11.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks and 2.0 steals per game last year.

Ben Coupet and Nikola Maria both made better than 33% of their 3-pointers last year and combined to average 19.6 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game.  SMU transfer CJ White shot 35.5% from 3-point range last season.

Little Rock has been impressive this season in a 2-1 start despite being underdogs in two games already.  They did lost 70-77 as 5.5-point dogs to Greensboro, but came back to beat a very good Duquesne team 76-66 as 6.5-point dogs that just upset Greensboro 81-61 last night.  Little Rock has shot 50% or better in each of its last two games and is starting to get in a groove offensively.

Winthrop also beat Greensboro 75-67 as a 6-point dog in their opener.  But this will be just their 2nd game overall and their 2nd game in 3 days.  Little Rock has had the last two days off, so they will be the fresher and more prepared team here.  And it’s worth noting Little Rock went 2-1 against common opponents that Winthrop went 0-2 against last year.  Little Rock outscored those teams by 9.7 points per game while Winthrop was outscored by 3.5 points per game.

Little Rock is 6-0 ATS off an upset wins an underdog over the last two seasons.  Little Rock is 10-2 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two years.  Winthrop is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.  Take Arkansas-Little Rock on the Money Line Thursday.

20* WVU/Gonzaga ESPN No-Brainer on West Virginia +9

The West Virginia Mountaineers returned four starters this season and are loaded.  They are off to a 3-0 start this season with wins over South Dakota State, VCU and Western Kentucky with are three of the better mid-major teams in the country this year.

Gonzaga is overvalued in this matchup due to its No. 1 national ranking.  They did beat two big names in Kansas and Auburn, but those are two rebuilding teams.  And they allowed 90 points and 53.2% shooting to Kansas, a Kansas team that just shot 30% against Kentucky last night.  And Auburn needed overtime to beat St. Joe’s and lost outright to UCF, 55-63 in its two games outside Gonzaga.

It’s also worth noting the Bulldogs are dealing with Covid-19 issues which has affected their practices.  Bob Huggins called up contacts at ESPN just to get into this tournament specifically to face Gonzaga, so you know he’s confident his team can compete here.  I think they’ll be in this game for 40 minutes with a chance to win outright in the end.

The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  The Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  Bet West Virginia Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Duquesne ML +115

The Duquesne Dukes have improved every season under head coach Keith Dambrot.  They won 21 games last season.  Now they have four starters and six of their top eight scorers back from a year ago and will be a real contender in the Atlantic 10 this season.  Forwards Marcus Weathers (14.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG last year) and Michael Hughes (10.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG) will be problems for everyone this year.

I think the Dukes are being undervalued here because they were upset by Arkansas-Little Rock in their opener as 6.5-point favorites.  But that’s a Little Rock team that returned all five starters from a year ago.  And UNC-Greensboro only beat Little Rock 77-70 for a common opponent, and they’re getting too much credit for that win.

Greensboro went on to get upset 67-75 by Winthrop as a 6-point favorite yesterday.  So now Greensboro is at a huge rest disadvantage because they will be playing their 2nd game in 2 days, while Duquesne had yesterday off.

Greensboro is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  The Spartans are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing their 3rd game in 5 days.  The Dukes are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  Roll with Duquesne Wednesday.

15* Ravens/Steelers AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -10

The Baltimore Ravens will be one of the worst teams in the NFL for one game tonight with all they are missing due to Covid-19.  And with the Steelers being the best team in the NFL to this point at 10-0 and chasing a perfect season, they should have no problem putting away the Ravens by double-digits today.

The Steelers already hate the Ravens, but that hatred will be even deeper today for the way the Ravens have messed with their schedule this season due to Covid-19.  They lost a bye week because of it and want to make a statement here.  And winning by margin hasn’t been a problem the last few weeks as they have won by 26 over Cincinnati and by 24 over Jacksonville.  Baltimore is a team on Cincinnati and Jacksonville’s level right now with all they are missing.

The Ravens will be without QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, LB Matthew Judos, WR Willie Snead, LS Morgan Cox, S Geno Stone, G Matt Skura, DE Jihad Ward, G Patrick Mekari, LB Pernell McPhee, RB Mark Ingram, RB JK Dobbins DT Justin Madubuike, DT Brandon Williams, TE Nick Boyle, T Ronnie Stanley and DE Calais Campbell tonight.  Almost all of those players played against the Steelers in their 24-28 loss in the first meeting.

The Steelers got good news on the injury front with WR JuJu Smith-Schuster and TE Vance McDonald both expected to play.  They will be missing RB James Conner, but they haven’t been able to run the football all season, so that won’t be an issue.  They have just been throwing on teams at will with Comeback Player of the Year candidate Ben Roethlisberger having one of his best seasons as a pro.  And the Steelers have one of the top defenses in the NFL, giving up just 17.4 points per game this season.

Washed up Robert Griffin III will get the start at QB for the Ravens, and the Steelers will make life hell on him for four quarters.  Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS vs. awful passing defenses like Baltimore that allow 64% completions or worse over the last two seasons.  The Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss.  The Ravens weren’t even playing good when healthy, going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  Take the Steelers Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Western Kentucky +4

Western Kentucky went 21-10 last season despite their best player in Charles Bassey being limited to just 10 games.  He averaged 14.6 points, 10 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in 2018-19 while shooting 62.7% from the field, 45% from 3-point range and 76.9% from the charity stripe.  He’s back as the Hilltoppers return all five starters from last season.

Davidson transfer Luke Frampton should be much healthier this season after scoring 10.3 points and shooting 37.6% from 3-point range.  Carson Williams shot 39% from 3-point range last year while averaging 14 points, 6.6 boards and 1.1 steals.  He scored at least 10 points in 18 of their final 20 games last year and is a star alongside Bassey.

Tavern Hollingsworth is one of the best guards in Conference USA after averaging 16.6 points, 4.2 boards, 2.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game last year.  Lipscomb transfer Kenny Cooper is more of a true point guard and should flourish with all the talent around him after averaging 9.8 points and 4.5 assists last year.  Jordan Rawls (7.9 PPG) is back as is Josh Anderson (10.1 PPG).  This team is simply loaded.

Western Kentucky has played a brutal schedule thus far and has gotten through with flying colors.  They are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS (3-0 if bet early number) against Northern Iowa, Memphis and West Virginia.  They won and covered against the first two, then gave WVU all it could handle in a 64-70 loss as closing 5.5-point dogs.  Hollingsworth (19.0 PPG) and Bassey (15.7 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 3.7 BPG) have been a handful thus far.

Louisville is 3-0 SU & 1-2 ATS against a much softer schedule.  They have blowout wins over Evansville and Prairie View A&M but barely beat Seton Hall 71-70 as 5.5-point favorites.  The Cardinals are missing several players due to injury, including center Malik Williams, who is recovering from foot surgery.  Samuell Williamson, another center, is day-to-day with a dislocated toe.  They aren’t going to have an answer for Bussey inside here.

Louisville is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  Western Kentucky is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 games as an underdog.  The Hilltoppers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Western Kentucky Tuesday.

20* Seahawks/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +5.5

We’re buying at the lowest possible point here on the Philadelphia Eagles.  They are coming off back-to-back losses to the Giants and Browns and now are catching 5.5 points at home to the Seattle Seahawks.  And now the Eagles are finally out of first place in the NFC East so they need to be playing with a sense of urgency this week.  I just love the spot for them.

And the Eagles have played their best football at home this season.  They have just one loss by more than 2 points in their five home games this season.  They have gotten a lot healthier on offense in recent weeks, and their defense is still playing at a very high level.

Indeed, the Eagles are allowing just 342.7 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.  They have the far superior defense in this matchup.  The Seahawks give up 28.7 points per game, 434.9 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  That’s why it is tough to trust them to get margin because the back door is always open against them with their pathetic defense.

Seattle is 7-3 this season but five of those wins came by a single score and the other two were against the Falcons in Week 1 and the 49ers a few weeks back when they were an injury-ravaged team.  The Seahawks are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games with losses to the Cardinals by 3, the Bills by 10 and the Rams by 7.

Philadelphia is 40-22 ATS in its last 62 home games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in.  Bet the Eagles Monday.

20* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Kentucky +17

Eastern Kentucky is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season.  They beat North Florida 80-67 as 1-point favorites and Charleston Southern 60-50 as 6-point favorites.  They play at the seventh-fasted pace in the country and have already forced 46 turnovers in two games.

I think that pace will give Xavier a problem here.  Xavier will be playing its 4th game in 6 days and will have a hard time keeping pace.  The Musketeers are tired, and they are very fortunate to be 3-0, which has them overvalued.  They hit a game-winner with 5.4 seconds left to beat Bradley 51-50 as 10-point favorites, and they needed an 8-2 run to close to top Toledo 76-73 as a 9.5-point favorite.

Eastern Kentucky is a lot better shooting team than they have shown.  It’s impressive that they have two double-digit victories when you consider they have shot just 9-for-56 (16.1%) from 3-point range.  That just shows you how good their defense has been.  They will shoot it better against Xavier here.

Eastern Kentucky is 58-36 ATS in its last 94 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  Xavier is 0-7 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Musketeers are 1-8 ATS in non-conference home games over the past two years.  The Colonels are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games as a road dog of 12.5 to 18 points.  The Colonels are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs.  Eastern Kentucky is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games overall.  Bet Eastern Kentucky Monday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers +7

This is a great spot to ‘buy low’ on the San Francisco 49ers, who have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  But those losses came against three of the best teams in the NFL in the Seahawks, Packers and Saints.  And they were more competitive than the scores showed in all three.  They actually outgained the Saints by 44 yards and the Seahawks by 1 yard, and they were only outgained by 68 yards by the Packers.

Now the 49ers come off their bye week, and they needed a bye more than anyone with all of their injuries.  And they will be getting some key pieces back this week in WR Samuel, CB Sherman, RB Mostert and DT Kinlaw.  And they already beat the Rams 24-16 as 2-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are 7-point road dogs in the rematch, which is simply too high.

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Rams after back-to-back wins and covers over the Seahawks and Bucs.  Now the Rams will be on a short week here after winning in Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football.  They are at a huge rest disadvantage here facing a 49ers team off their bye.  And they are feeling fat and happy after beating both of those teams.  This has letdown spot written all over it.

The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chargers/Bills OVER 52.5

This game has shootout written all over it between the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills Sunday.  These are two of the best offenses in the NFL, especially when it comes to throwing the football.  They are the 2nd and 3rd passing offenses in the league.  And the conditions will be prime for scoring in Buffalo for this time of year with 46 degrees and 10 MPH winds at kickoff forecasted.

This Buffalo offense is hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are scoring 27.2 points per game on the season and are coming off 44 and 30-point efforts against the Seahawks and Cardinals, respectively.  Now their offense should torch a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has allowed at least 28 points in seven consecutive games.

That includes 29 points to the Jaguars, 31 to the Broncos, 29 to the Dolphins and 28 to the Jets.  Those are the 21st, 27th, 29th and 32nd offenses in the NFL this season, so they are giving up big points against even poor offenses.  So you can imagine what the Bills are going to do to them, especially with the Chargers being without four key defenders in DE Ingram, CB Hayward, CB Harris and LB Nwosu.  They allow 27.3 points per game on the season.

But the Chargers have the offense to make up for their poor defense.  Justin Herbert is the Rookie of the Year right now with what he is doing in the passing game.  He is guiding the Chargers to 26.0 points per game this season.  He is completing 68% of his passes for 2,699 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio this year.  And there’s a good chance he gets back a huge weapon this week in RB Austin Ekeler.

The OVER is 7-0 in Chargers last seven games overall with combined scores of 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50 and 62 points.  That’s an average of 60.5 combined points per game.  This 52.5-point total isn’t nearly high enough today for these two games as we should see 60-plus combined points here.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Arizona Cardinals ML -125

I like this spot for the Arizona Cardinals.  They have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games even though they were competitive in all three, so this is a ‘buy low’ opportunity.  All three games came against the Dolphins, Bills and Seahawks who are all playoff teams currently.  Now they get extra rest after losing a tough one to the Seahawks last Thursday in what was a bad spot for them.

Now they face a New England Patriots team that just can’t keep any momentum going.  The Patriots’ shot to make the playoffs went by the wayside last week as they were upset by the Houston Texans.  Now I can’t see them playing with much passion here against the Cardinals this week sitting at 4-6 on the season and out of the playoff race.

Not to mention, the Patriots haven’t been playing good football for months.  They are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only good performance coming in an upset win over Baltimore in a monsoon.  And clearly the Ravens are struggling over the last month too, so that win doesn’t look as good now.  Their other six games were all poor performances.

The Patriots don’t have much speed on defense, so they struggle against speedy teams like the Cardinals.  That was evident against the speed of the Texans last week.  And it will be again this week against Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and company.  Plus the weather is going to be perfect in New England, which favors the Cardinals.  It’s supposed to be 50 degrees with only 6 MPH winds at kickoff.

The Patriots give up 6.4 yards per play defensively while the Cardinals give up just 5.7 yards per play.  The Cardinals average 6.3 yards per play on offense while the Patriots only average 5.8 yards per play.  Arizona is outgaining its opponents by 0.6 yards per play this season, while New England is getting outgained by 0.6 yards per play.  

The Cardinals are simply better everywhere and should be at least favored by a field goal minimum here.  Arizona is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond +8.5

The Richmond Spiders went 24-7 last season and return all five starters.  I like their experience here early in the season against a Kentucky Wildcats team that is playing 10 newcomers.

PG Jacob Gilyard was 10th nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio last year and led the nation with 3.19 steals per game.  Senior Nathan Cayo had 23 points and made all 10 of his field goal attempts in an 82-64 win over Morehead State Friday.

Kentucky started four freshmen and senior transfer Olivier Starr from Wake Forest against Morehead State.  They have seven freshmen and three transfers among their newcomers.  And this test against veteran Richmond will be much more difficult than the Morehead State game was for them.

Richmond is 8-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  Kentucky is 0-6 ATS in home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game over the last three years.  Bet Richmond Sunday.

15* Nevada/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Nevada -7

Nevada was a team I was very high on coming into the season and they have not let me down.  They returned 17 starters and a ton of experience, a prolific offense and one of the most improved defenses in the country due to the size the Wolf Pack have accumulated on the defensive line.

The Wolf Pack are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and showing they can contend for a Mountain West title.  They are averaging 32.2 points and 460.6 yards per game on offense and giving up just 20.6 points and 312.8 yards per game on defense.  They feature a high-octane passing attack with 69.9% completions, 364 yards per game and 8.3 yards per attempt.

They want revenge from their worst loss of the season last year, a 54-3 loss to Hawaii when they were 2-point favorites in a downpour.  Weather will be perfect in Hawaii, and this is a Hawaii team now in rebuilding mode after losing head coach Nick Rolovich to Washington State.

Hawaii is just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS this season.  The Warriors’ only wins came against Fresno State in the opener and over New Mexico 39-33 as a 13-point favorite.  That’s a New Mexico team that lost 28-0 to Air Force two weeks ago and then suffered an embarrassing 41-27 loss to Utah State as a 6-point favorite on Thursday.

Hawaii also lost 7-31 to Wyoming, 10-34 to San Diego State and 32-40 to Boise State.  And keep in mind that loss to Boise was much worse than the final score showed.  The Broncos led 40-17 entering the 4th quarter before the Warriors scored two touchdowns in garbage time and converted a plethora of 4th-down conversions in the process.

These teams already have three common opponents.  Nevada is 3-0 against them and outscoring them by 5.0 points per game.  Hawaii is 1-2 against them and getting outscored by 14.0 points per game.  That’s a 19-point scoring differential, and it shows that Nevada can easily cover this 7-point spread Saturday night without really even trying.

Hawaii is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after tailing in its last two games by 14 or more points at halftime.  The Wolf Pack are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Rainbow Warriors are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 home games.  The Wolf Pack are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  It’s revenge time here as the Wolf Pack improve to 6-0 this season with a blowout victory over the Rainbow Warriors.  Take Nevada Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Villanova -8.5

The Villanova Wildcats are one of the most talented teams in the country.  Both Collin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are two of the best players in the Big East.  Justin Moore is another great player on this roster.  And Tulane transfer Caleb Daniels will play a big role after averaging 16.9 points per game in 2018-19.

I think we are getting Villanova cheap today after failing to cover as 15.5-point favorites in a 76-67 win over an improved Boston College team in their opener.  Gillespie had 15 points, Daniels 14, Moore 14 and Robinson-Earl 18 to lead the way for the Wildcats.  They Wildcats are a legit national title contender in 2020.

They came back and topped a nationally ranked Arizona State team 83-74 as 6-point favorites.  Robinson-Earl showed out with 28 points, while Moore (16), Daniels (14) and Gillespie (11) helped lead the way once again.  These four players are a real handful for any team.

Virginia Tech is picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC by most publications, and for good reason.  They lost their best player in Landers Nolley to Memphis via transfer.  And the transition from Buzz Williams to Mike Young as head coach wasn’t a great one.  They went just 2-13 ATS over their final 15 games and finished 6-15 ATS in ACC play.

The Hokies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  The Wildcats are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games.  Roll with Villanova Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana-Monroe +28.5

Louisiana-Lafayette already clinched its 3rd straight West Division title last time out with a 38-10 win over South Alabama.  They don’t have much to play for the rest of the way.  And they have COVID problems with 33 players in coronavirus protocol last week, causing their game against Central Arkansas to be cancelled.

Head coach Billy Napier also tested positive and hasn’t been with the team all week and won’t be with them until the game Saturday.  His quotes are very telling.  “The tough thing here is we don’t get to practice, and I’m not going to have the opportunity to spend time with family for Thanksgiving.  I wish I could be with the guys during the week and all that getting ready, but I mean, it’s not happening.  It’s fortunate that it worked out to where I can be there Saturday.”

The betting public wants nothing to do with this 0-8 Louisiana-Monroe team.  So they are catching a boat load of points here because of their record.  But six of their eight losses this season came by 25 points or less.  They only exceptions were their 30-point loss to Army in the opener and their 33-point loss to Liberty, which are two very good teams.

Louisiana-Monroe only lost by 18 points to Appalachian State a few weeks back.  The Mountaineers are the two-time defending Sun Belt champs, so that was a good performance.  And speaking of Appalachian State, Louisiana has them on deck next week. They could easily be looking ahead to that game against a team that has beaten them each of the last two years in the Sun Belt title game.  They want revenge on App State as that is their Super Bowl.

This game is Louisiana-Monroe’s Super Bowl against their biggest rivals in Louisiana-Lafaytte.  They get up for this game every year, and that has shown in recent meetings.  Six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  That includes last year when Monroe was a 20.5-point dog and only lost by a single point, 30-31.

I like the new QB for Louisiana-Monroe in Jeremy Hunt, who relieved ailing starter Colby Suits against Georgia State last time out.  He threw for 339 yards and three touchdowns and clearly gave their offense a spark by leading the Warhawks to 34 points in that 18-point loss.

Louisiana is simply overvalued due to its 7-1 record.  But five of those wins came by 10 points or fewer, and they haven’t beaten anyone by more than 28 points this season.  The underdog is 16-3-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgia State ML +107

Georgia State is one of my favorite teams to back because they just fly under the radar in the Sun Belt conference.  They are 4-4 this season and nearly upset Appalachian State two weeks ago in a 13-17 loss as 18.5-point dogs.  And last week they handled South Alabama 31-14 as 3.5-point favorites behind 556 yards of total offense.

Their offense is hitting on all cylinders right now and their defense just limited App State to 310 total yards and South Alabama to 324 total yards.  They should not be underdogs to Georgia Southern this week in a game they are going to win outright.

Georgia Southern has to be getting tired playing for a 7th consecutive week here.  After three straight home wins by 7 points or fewer, they finally met their match last week in a 27-28 loss to Army.  And you know how physical Army is with their triple-option, so that game will have taken a lot out of Georgia Southern heading into this game with Georgia State.

Georgia Southern is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a road favorite.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Take Georgia State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +11

I faded Oklahoma State last week with an easy win on Oklahoma -7 in Bedlam in a 41-13 blowout win over the Cowboys.  I thought that would have exposed the Cowboys for the frauds they were, but here they are laying double-digits to Texas Tech this week.  The value is clearly on the Red Raiders as the Cowboys are once again getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.

Oklahoma State’s offense has been terrible all season in averaging just 386.4 yards per game.  Take away the 593 yards they had against Kansas and the numbers look really bad for them against all the other legitimate teams they have faced.  They were held to 256 yards by Kansas State and then 246 yards by Oklahoma in their last two games.  Now QB Spencer Sanders has a head injury and may not start, and backup Shane Illingworth is out with Covid-19.  It’s just a bad look for the Cowboys offensively right now.

I think the Cowboys could suffer a hangover here from that deflating loss to Oklahoma, and Texas Tech is in a great spot coming in on two weeks’ rest following a last second win over Baylor two weeks ago.  Their only blowout loss this season came against Oklahoma, and they beat West Virginia earlier this year and deserved to beat Texas in an overtime loss after they blew a 15-point lead in the final minutes.

Texas Tech simply has Oklahoma State’s number.  The Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  They pulled two outright upsets each of the last two years.  They won 45-35 as a 9-point dog last year and 41-17 as a 14.5-point dog in 2018.  And in 2017 they only lost by 7 as a 10-point dog and by 1 in 2016 as a 10.5-point dog.  And once again they are catching too many points here when they are in the better spot off a bye and with Oklahoma State off Bedlam.  Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland +12

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Indiana this week.  They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS this season and now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  And it’s a terrible sandwich spot for them coming off a tough 35-42 loss to Ohio State and with Wisconsin on deck next week.  I think they suffer a hangover here from that loss to the Buckeyes and won’t be as motivated or focused as they need to be to put away Maryland by double-digits.

Maryland’s 3-43 loss to Northwestern in the opener has them extremely undervalued now.  They have since gone on to pull off two straight luges upsets with a 45-44 win over Minnesota as a 17.5-point dog and a 35-19 win over Penn State as a 27.5-point dog.

Starting QB Tualia Tagovailoa is one of the top QB recruits in the country.  After a stinker against Northwestern, he has been brilliant in his last two starts.  He threw for 394 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota before throwing for 282 yards and three more touchdowns against Penn State.  He is also a dual-threat with 61 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground this season.

Each of the last four meetings in this series were decided by 6 points or fewer.  And you know Maryland wants revenge from losing the last two by a combined 8 points.  Plus it’s a great spot for the Terrapins here coming in rested after last playing on November 7th.  And Indiana will be playing for a 6th consecutive week, and their tough early schedule will take its toll this week.

Indiana is 4-1 SU despite only outgaining its opponents by an average of 9.6 yards per game on the season.  That stat alone shows how overvalued Indiana is right now.  And it’s time to fade them this week as they suffer their first ATS loss of the season, and they’ll be fortunate to even win this game straight up.  I definitely have some Maryland +360 on the money line and you should too.  But we’ll take the points for some added insurance.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* Oregon/Oregon State Pac-12 No-Brainer on Oregon State +14

The Oregon Ducks are way overvalued after their 3-0 start that has them ranked as a Top 10 team in the country.  They aren’t one of the 10 best teams in the country, and they are fortunate to be 3-0.  Let’s just go game by game with them to see how fortunate they have been.

Stanford’s starting QB and top WR were out for the opener just before game time.  And Stanford went 0-for-4 on field goals and had six drives in Oregon territory result in zero points in their 35-14 loss.

The next week Oregon fell behind 19-7 with 20 seconds left before half and somehow got a huge play and scored before intermission with three seconds left to make it 19-14.  They also tacked on a TD in the final two minutes to win 43-29 and cover the 10.5-point spread even though they never deserved to cover.

Last week Oregon was extremely fortunate to beat UCLA 38-35 as an 18.5-point favorites. They gave up 462 total yards to the Bruins and were outgained by 40 yards in the win.  They were +3 in turnovers and still only won by 3 points.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Ducks.

The Oregon State Beavers improved big time last year under head coach Jonathan Smith, their former quarterback.  They went from 2-10 in his first season to 5-7 last year and had three losses by 3 points or less.  That’s how close they were to being an 8-4 team.  And now Smith welcomes back 14 returning starters from last year’s squad and is in his third year with the program.

The Beavers have had a couple tough losses to open the season.  They were upset 28-38 in the opener by Washington State, and then lost 21-27 at Washington as 13-point dogs.  But they got on track last week with a 31-27 victory as 1-point dogs against California.  And now they are excited to face off against their biggest rivals here in Oregon and try to hand them their first loss.  And we have a lot of room to work with since the Beavers are catching 14 points.

Oregon only beat Oregon State 24-10 as a 21-point favorite last year.  And that game was closer than the final score would indicate as the Beavers actually outgained the Ducks by 15 yards.  This 2020 version of Oregon isn’t nearly as good as the one with Justin Herbert and company last year as they lost him and all five starters on the offensive line.  Oregon State is every bit as good as it was last year.

Oregon State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6.25 or more yards per play.  The Beavers are 7-0 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  Oregon State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  Bet Oregon State Friday.

15* Notre Dame/UNC ACC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 67.5

This is an inflated total due to the numbers that North Carolina has been putting up this season.  But this game will be played close to the vest as it’s a Top 25 matchup in the ACC.  And my favorite reason for backing the UNDER is that both teams are coming off bye weeks so they’ve had two full weeks to get ready for one another.  That is going to favor the defenses dramatically.

Notre Dame has the best defense that UNC will have faced this season.  The Fighting Irish are only giving up 16.6 points and 304.1 yards per game.  And the Fighting Irish have a great rushing attack that will allow them to move the ball on the ground and keep that UNC offense off the field.  They average 234 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  But it is worth noting the Fighting Irish will be without two starters on the offensive line, which can only hurt their offense and help this UNDER.

UNC also likes to run the football in average 234 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry. They have put up some big numbers against some really bad defenses this season, which is why this total has been inflated.  They have gone OVER the total in four straight coming in, while Notre Dame has gone OVER the total in two straight.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the UNDER in this matchup now.

Notre Dame is 12-3 UNDER in its last 15 games after gaining 525 or more yards per game in its last two games.  UNC is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 home games after allowing 325 or more passing yards last game.  The UNDER is 24-9 in Fighting Irish last 33 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (UNC) after going over the total by more than 35 points in their previous game, a good team winning between 60% and 80% of their games on the season are 32-8 (80%) since 1992.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -7

The UCLA Bruins finished 11-3 over their final 14 games last season while allowing 72 or fewer points in 12 of those games.  Head coach Mick Cronin implemented a new style in his first season that had UCLA limiting possessions.  Now Cronin welcomes back all five starters and each of the fop five scorers from a year ago.

PG Tyger Campbell averaged 8.3 points and 5.0 assists last season.  Fellow freshman Jaime Jaquez Jr. did it all with 8.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game.  Leading scorers Chris Smith is back after averaging 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds.  Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang was a Top-40 prospect coming out of high school and saw limited minutes as a freshman, but he shot 50% from 3-point range over his final 11 games.  Jalen Hill returns as the team’s leading rebounder with 6.9 boards and 1.1 blocks per game.

The UCLA Bruins will be looking to bounce back from a bad loss to San Diego State in which they were 3-point favorites and lost 58-73 after shooting just 39.5% from the floor and committing 15 turnovers.  They will be much sharper here against Pepperdine, a team that is now getting too much respect after beating UC-Irvine 86-72 as 4-point favorites in their opener.  So it’s a good ‘buy low’ on UCLA and ’sell high’ on Pepperdine situation here.

The Bruins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  UCLA is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss.  Pepperdine is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take UCLA Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Western Kentucky +8

Western Kentucky went 21-10 last season despite their best player in Charles Bassey being limited to just 10 games.  He averaged 14.6 points, 10 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in 2018-19 while shooting 62.7% from the field, 45% from 3-point range and 76.9% from the charity stripe.  He’s back as the Hilltoppers return all five starters from last season.

Davidson transfer Luke Frampton should be much healthier this season after scoring 10.3 points and shooting 37.6% from 3-point range.  Carson Williams shot 39% from 3-point range last year while averaging 14 points, 6.6 boards and 1.1 steals.  He scored at least 10 points in 18 of their final 20 games last year and is a star alongside Bassey.

Tavern Hollingsworth is one of the best guards in Conference USA after averaging 16.6 points, 4.2 boards, 2.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game last year.  Lipscomb transfer Kenny Cooper is more of a true point guard and should flourish with all the talent around him after averaging 9.8 points and 4.5 assists last year.  Jordan Rawls (7.9 PPG) is back as is Josh Anderson (10.1 PPG).  This team is simply loaded.

And they’ve shown it in their first two games.  They beat Northern Iowa 93-87 as a 3.5-point favorite in their opener.  And yesterday they backed it up with a 75-69 upset win as 4-point dogs over Memphis.  That’s a Memphis team that might be the most talented in the country.  And now they are getting zero respect as 8-point dogs to West Virginia today in a game they could win outright.

The Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Western Kentucky is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog.  The Mountaineers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet Western Kentucky Friday.

15* Nebraska/Iowa Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +14

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Nebraska Cornhuskers this week.  They are off to a 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS start, but they have played the toughest schedule in the Big Ten to this point.  Two of their losses came on the road to Ohio State and Northwestern while they also beat Penn State.  And last week’s upset loss to Illinois in which they were -5 in turnovers really has them undervalued this week.

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Iowa after the Hawkeyes went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  Those wins came against three of the worst teams in the Big Ten in Michigan State, Minnesota and Penn State.  And all three wins were much closer than the scores would indicate as they outgained Michigan State by 119 yards, Minnesota by 34 yards and Penn State by 19 yards.

Nebraska will show up for this rivalry game with Iowa, just as it has the past two years.  And Huskers have not forgotten about their 3-point losses to the Hawkeyes each of the past two seasons, and those were bad Nebraska teams and good Iowa teams.  Iowa isn’t as good this year, and Nebraska is better than its 1-3 record in Scott Frost’s third season.  Nebraska’s best effort here will be good enough to stay within this 14-point spread.

Kirk Ferentz is 0-6 ATS in home games after leading its last two games by 14 or more points at halftime as the coach of Iowa having never covered in this spot.  Ferentz is also 20-33 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of Iowa.  The Huskers are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games.  Roll with Nebraska Friday.

15* Villanova/ASU ESPN Late-Night DESSERT on Villanova -4.5

The Villanova Wildcats are one of the most talented teams in the country.  Both Collin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are two of the best players in the Big East.  Justin Moore is another great player on this roster.  And Tulane transfer Caleb Daniels will play a big role after averaging 16.9 points per game in 2018-19.

I think we are getting Villanova cheap today after failing to cover as 15.5-point favorites in a 76-67 win over an improved Boston College team yesterday.  Gillespie had 15 points, Daniels 14, Moore 14 and Robinson-Earl 18 to lead the way for the Wildcats.  More concerning is that Arizona State struggled to put away a rebuilding Rhode Island team 94-88 yesterday. 

The Wildcats are 30-14-1 ATS in their last 45 games following an ATS loss.  The Sun Devils are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Villanova is a legit national title contender and should be a bigger favorite here.  Bet Villanova Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Washington Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Washington +3

The Washington Football Team has quietly outgained five straight opponents by a combined a combined 549 yards, or by an average of 109.8 yards per game.  They are playing their best football of the season with Alex Smith at quarterback.  He has thrown for 881 yards in his last three games overall.

But what you really have to like about Washington is their defense, which has been one of the best units in the NFL this season.  They give up just 22.7 points and 315.8 yards per game on the year.  This defense limited the Cowboys to just 142 total yards in their first meeting, outgaining them by 255 yards in their 25-3 victory.  I expect more of the same here.  And there’s value with Washington considering the line was PK in the first meeting and now it’s +3.

The Cowboys are now getting too much respect from oddsmakers after covering their last two games against the Steelers as 14-point dogs and the Vikings as 7-point dogs.  But they were fortunate to beat the Vikings last week because they were outgained by 54 yards and their pathetic defense still gave up 430 yards to the Vikings in the win.

And that’s where the advantage for Washington lies here is on the defensive side of the ball.  The Cowboys give up 31.8 points and 386.4 yards per game this season.  They can’t stop the run as they give up 154 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  And Washington is going to be able to run the ball with Antonio Gibson, who had 430 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 4.5 per carry this season.

Washington is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Dallas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS vs. NFC opponents this season.  Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The underdog is 28-13 ATS in the last 41 meetings.  Bet Washington Thursday.

15* Texans/Lions Early Afternoon APPETIZER on Houston -2.5

The Houston Texans got off to a 1-6 start this season because they played the toughest schedule in the NFL up to that point.  Their six losses were against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Vikings, Titans and Packers.  But they’ve started to play up to their potential now with the schedule easing up.

Indeed, the Texans are 2-1 SU in their last three games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Browns 7-10 in terrible conditions as 4-point dogs.  They beat the Jaguars on the road and last week topped the Patriots 27-20 at home.  Deshaun Watson is having a monster season still and I trust him to get the job done here.  Watson is completing 68.9% of his passes for 2,883 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 269 yards and two scores.

The Detroit Lions have some terrible losses this season and are just 4-6 on the year.  Their six losses have come by an average of 14.2 points per game.  And three of their four wins have come by 3 points or less.  So they are close to being a 1-9 football team.  They sure looked the part last week when they were upset 20-0 on the road by the Carolina Panthers.

That was a Panthers team playing without Teddy Bridgewater.  And the Lions just got worked.  They managed just 185 yards of total offense in the loss against a Panthers defense that had given up 46 points to the Bucs the week prior.  A big reason for the Lions’ struggles was all their injuries on offense, and it’s not going to get much better this week.

The Lions were without three of their best playmakers in Kenny Golloday, Danny Amendola and D’Andre Swift last week, and all three are questionable to return.  Matthew Stafford didn’t take a single snap in practice last week because of a thumb injury, and he played with that injured thumb against the Panthers.  And it’s not going to get much better for the Lions offensively on a short week this week.

Watson should be able to light up a Detroit defense that gives up 28.7 points and 397.4 yards per game this season.  The Lions are 0-6 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game over the last two seasons.  Detroit is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games overall.  The Lions are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  Take the Texans Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA -3

The UCLA Bruins finished 11-3 over their final 14 games last season while allowing 72 or fewer points in 12 of those games.  Head coach Mick Cronin implemented a new style in his first season that had UCLA limiting possessions.  Now Cronin welcomes back all five starters and each of the fop five scorers from a year ago.

PG Tyger Campbell averaged 8.3 points and 5.0 assists last season.  Fellow freshman Jaime Jaquez Jr. did it all with 8.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game.  Leading scorers Chris Smith is back after averaging 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds.  Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang was a Top-40 prospect coming out of high school and saw limited minutes as a freshman, but he shot 50% from 3-point range over his final 11 games.  Jalen Hill returns as the team’s leading rebounder with 6.9 boards and 1.1 blocks per game.

San Diego State was a nice story last year in going 30-2 and nearly getting through the regular season unbeaten.  But they lose three starters from that team, including Mountain West Player of the Year Malachi Flynn.  Tanni Wetzell transferred to Vanderbilt and K.J. Feagin is pursuing a professional career in Germany.  Roll with UCLA Wednesday.

15* CBB BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston -22

The Houston Cougars made a deep run into the NCAA Tournament two years ago before 'settling' for a 24-8 season last year.  Now the Cougars return their entire backcourt in Caleb Mills, De’Jon Jarreau and Quentin Grimes.  

Both Jarreau and Grimes are future NBA players, and Mills compliments them well.  Head coach Kelvin Sampson got a great big man transfer in Reggie Chaney from Arkansas.  It’s easy to see why for the first time in 37 years that the Houston Cougars (No. 17) open the season as a Top 25 team.

Lamar is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games with a total set of 135 to 139.5.  The Cougars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Houston Wednesday.

20* 2020 CBB Season Opener on Arkansas-Little Rock -12

Arkansas Little-Rock returns all 5 starters from a team that went 21-10 SU & 21-10 ATS last year.  Forward Kris Bankston led the nation in field goal percentage in 2018-19 returns after missing much of last season to essentially give them six starters back.

PG Markquis Nowell led the Trojans with 17.2 points, 4.9 assists and 2.2 steals per game last season while also shooting 39.1% from 3-point range and 87.9% from the FT line.  Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Ruot Monyyong is back after averaging 11.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks and 2.0 steals per game last year.

Ben Coupet and Nikola Maria both made better than 33% of their 3-pointers last year and combined to average 19.6 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game.  SMU transfer CJ White shot 35.5% from 3-point range last season.

Prairie View A&M returns just one starter this season and loses each of its top five scorers from a year ago.  So we have one team here returning all five starters and one team basically losing all five.  Little Rock should be a bigger favorite here.  Bet Arkansas-Little Rock Wednesday.

25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -3

The Tampa Bay Bucs are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL.  Their 38-3 loss to the Saints a couple weeks ago was an aberration.  They’ve won four of their last five games overall with three of those wins coming by 23 points or more.  They will handle the Rams on Monday Night Football.

Tom Brady came back motivated last week off that loss to the Saints and showed what he could do with all the weapons he has.  They beat the Panthers 46-23 and it wasn’t even that close.  They racked up 544 total yards and held the Panthers to 187, outgaining them by 357 yards.  It was the most lopsided box score of the entire season in the NFL.  And the Bucs didn’t have to punt once.  Now Brady wants to redeem himself on the National TV stage here against the Rams.  He leads a Bucs offense that is putting up 29.6 points per game this season.

The Bucs also have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They give up just 22.6 points and 300.3 yards per game.  Now they’ll be facing an overrated Rams offense that cannot be trusted.  The Rams only scored 23 points against the Seahawks last week in what was a perfect spot for them coming off their bye week.  The Seahawks have been getting burnt defensively all season, and their defense actually looked pretty good in that game.

Goff isn’t very good when he is pressured, and the Bucs can get pressure.  Not to mention Goff will likely be without LT Andrew Whitworth, who had to leave the game last week with a knee injury.  And this is now a bad spot for the Rams having to make their 5th cross country trip of the season.  No team in the NFL has flown more miles than the Rams this year.  Los Angeles is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road this season with losses to the Bills, 49ers and Dolphins.  Their only two road wins came against poor NFC East teams in Philadelphia and Washington.

The Rams are 23-47 ATS in their last 70 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Los Angels is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games as an underdog.  Tampa Bay is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games after scoring 35 or more points last game.  Bet the Bucs Monday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Cowboys +7.5

This is a great ‘buy low’ spot on the Dallas Cowboys, who are just 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS this season.  They were either favored or a PK in six of their first seven games this season.  But now they’ve been an underdog in their last two and a double-digit dog at that.  And they should have covered both.

The Cowboys lost 9-23 to Philadelphia as 10-point dogs two games back and held the Eagles to just 222 total yards.  But they had a fumble returned for a TD when they were only down 6 points late and driving for the winning score.  And last time out they only lost 19-24 to the Steelers as 14-point dogs.  They led most the way and deserved to beat the unbeaten Steelers.

Now the Cowboys are in a great spot this week coming off their bye week.  They are ready to make a second half playoff run because when they look up at the NFC East standings they see that they are clearly right in the thick of the race despite their 2-7 record.  That should have them rejuvenated coming off their bye.  And they should be a lot healthier here too, plus they are expected to get Andy Dalton back at quarterback.

While it’s a great spot for the Cowboys, it’s a terrible one for the Vikings.  They will be working on a short week here after a physical game against the Bears on Monday Night Football.  And it’s a good ’sell high’ spot on the Vikings coming off three straight wins and covers.  Now the Vikings are 7.5-point favorites here.  They haven’t been more than a 4-point favorite in any other game this season, which shows they are now overvalued.

Dallas is 7-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 260 or more passing yards per game after 8-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their previous game over the last three years.  They are winning by 17.5 points per game in this spot.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -3

We keep backing the Miami Dolphins, and they keep on covering because oddsmakers and the betting public just don’t want to give them the respect they deserve.  And I feel they are still being disrespected as only 3-point road favorites over the Broncos this week.  The Dolphins are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS this season and fighting for an AFC East title.

The Dolphins are underrated because they play great defense.  They are only giving up 20.2 points per game this season.  The offense has put up 28, 34 and 29 points in the three games started by Tua Tagovailoa.  I don’t believe he’s a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the playbook actually gets bigger with Tua under center.

The Broncos are a mess right now.  They have lost three of their last four and weren’t even competitive in any of the three losses.  They were fortunate to come back from a 24-3 deficit to beat the Chargers in their only win.  And keep in mind the Chargers were 3-point favorites over the Broncos in that game.  The Dolphins are a lot better than the Chargers, and they proved that last week with their 29-21 win that wasn’t even as close as the final score.  So they should be more than 3-point favorites here.

Justin Herbert had thrown for at least 250 yards in every game as a starter until he ran into this Dolphins defense.  Herbert only went 20-of-32 for 187 yards against the Dolphins, and no Charger receiver managed even 40 receiving yards.  This Miami defense is going to feast on Drew Lock or whoever starts for the Broncos this week.

Denver has committed at least one turnover in 16 consecutive games now.   Lock threw four interceptions in their 12-37 road loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week.  And this Broncos defense has been pitiful, giving up at least 100 rushing yards in five of its last six, including 200-plus in two of the last three.  The Dolphins should be able to do whatever they want offensively against this soft, banged up Broncos defense that allows 28.2 points per game this season.

Plays against any team (Denver) - with a poor turnover defensive forcing one or fewer turnovers per game, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 48-22 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Miles Sanders, Alshon Jeffery, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Raegor, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson have all returned recently to bolster the Eagles’ offense.  They didn’t all get in a full week of practice last week, but they should this week.  And it should make all the difference as they bounce back from a bad loss to the Giants.

The Eagles were out of sync against the Giants, going just 1-for-12 on 3rd and 4th downs combined.  They should be more in sync this week.  And it was a great sign for them to rush for 156 yards on 23 attempts, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt.  Which makes it even more puzzling hat they struggled on 3rd and 4th.  But I expect them to get it worked out this week.

The Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and are for some reason getting a lot of respect here as 3.5-point favorites.  Remember, there’s really no home-field advantage in the NFL this year.  So it’s basically suggesting the Browns are 3.5 points better on a neutral.  I strongly believe the Eagles are the better team now that they are almost fully healthy.

This Cleveland offense has really struggled in scoring 10 or fewer points in three of its last four games overall.  The loss of Odell Beckham Jr. is a big one because now teams can stack the box and try to stop their running game, which is their best asset.  Baker Mayfield has been awful all season and won’t be able to make many plays against this Philadelphia defense that has been very good against the pass in allowing just 175.3 passing yards per game in their last four.

Plays on road games where the line is +3.5 to -3.5 (Philadelphia) - off a road loss, with a losing record on the season are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Eagles are 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season with an upset win at San Francisco, a 2-point loss to Baltimore and a 9-point loss at Pittsburgh.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* Falcons/Saints NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +5

This is a great spot for the Atlanta Falcons.  They are coming off their bye week and looking to make a playoff run in the second half of the season.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the entire NFL and are starting to play up to their potential.

In fact, the Falcons are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are a Todd Gurley kneel down away from being 4-0 in the Raheem Morris era.  Players have clearly responded well to him.  They crushed the Vikings 40-23 on the road in his first game as head coach.  Then that heartbreaking 22-23 home loss to the Lions, followed by a 25-17 win at Carolina and a 34-27 home win over Denver.  And that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they led 34-13 with under four minutes remaining.

This is a great time to ’sell high’ on the Saints off six straight wins.  The first four all came by 6 points or fewer.  Their 38-3 win over the Bucs two weeks ago has them overvalued.  And their 27-13 win over the 49ers last week wasn’t nearly the blowout that the score would indicate.  The Saints managed just 237 total yards against the 49ers but were +2 in turnovers.  They have forced a combined seven turnovers the past two games.  But now they’ll be up against a Falcons team that doesn’t turn the ball over.  Atlanta has committed only eight turnovers in nine games this season.

Now the Saints will have to go on without Drew Brees.  Say what you want about him getting older, but he is still one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL.  And now the Saints have to turn to Jameis Winston, who threw 30 interceptions last year with the Bucs and has always been a turnover machine.  They may give Taysom Hill some snaps too, but either way this is a huge downgrade at quarterback, and it’s not being factored into the line enough.  There’s tremendous value here on the Falcons catching 5 points off their bye and not having to face Brees.

The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs.  Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall.  The Saints are only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +10

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the final unbeaten team in the NFL at 9-0 this season.  With that perfect record comes expectations from the betting public and thus oddsmakers that are difficult to live up too.  We saw that a few weeks ago when they barely survived in a 24-19 win over the lowly Cowboys.  And after a blowout win over the Bengals last week, the Steelers are overvalued here against the Jaguars laying double-digits on the road.

This is the ultimate flat spot for the Steelers.  They have the Ravens on deck Thursday night and are coming off that divisional win over the Bengals.  This is a sandwich spot now and the Steelers won’t be 100% focused for it.  They will clearly be looking ahead to that game against the Ravens.

The Jaguars have impressed me since returning from their bye week.  Doug Marrone still has this team showing up every week and trying to beat everyone.  And they’ll certainly be pumped to try to become the first team to take down the Steelers.  They nearly upset the Packers last week in a 20-24 road loss as 14-point dogs.  And they also nearly upset the Texans the week prior in a 25-27 loss as 6.5-point dogs.

The defense is playing better in holding those two elite offenses below 30 points.  And their offense has gotten a boost from QB Jake Luton, who is expected to start for a third consecutive game here.  Luton is completing 60.3% of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions while also rushing for a score.  He should only get better with each game, and keep in mind he had great stats against the Texans and poor ones against the Packers because he was playing in a wind storm.  It will be perfect weather in Jacksonville Sunday.

Plays against road favorites (Pittsburgh) - a good team outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game, after a win by 10 points or more are 53-20 (72.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Steelers are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games as road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points.  Pittsburgh is 12-27-2 ATS in its last 41 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

20* Oklahoma State/Oklahoma ABC No-Brainer on Oklahoma -7

The Oklahoma Sooners deserve a lot of credit from rebounding from upset losses to Kansas State and Iowa State to open the Big 12 season.  They could have easily packed it in.  But now they find themselves right back in the Big 12 title run after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have been undervalued from those losses ever since and remain undervalued in my eyes this week.

There has been nothing fluky about this run, either.  Oklahoma beat Texas in overtime after blowing a 14-point lead in the final four minutes.  That win propelled them to three straight blowout victory over TCU by 19, over Texas Tech by 34 and over Kansas by 53.  The Sooners have now outgained six of their seven opponents this season with the only exception being the 3 yards they were outgained by Iowa State.

Oklahoma State is one of the most fraudulent teams in the country.  They are 5-1 despite getting outgained in half of their games this season.  They were outgained by both Tulsa and West Virginia in misleading wins.  And last time out they were fortunate to beat Kansas State 20-18 despite getting outgained by 114 yards.

While the Cowboys have a good defense, they haven’t faced an offense as potent as this Oklahoma outfit.  The Sooners are averaging 46.1 points and 515 yards per game this season behind the play of QB Spencer Rattler.  He is by far the better Spencer in this matchup as Spencer Sanders is terrible for Oklahoma State and a turnover machine.  The Cowboys managed just 256 total yards against Kansas State, which was their lowest total since 2014.  Sanders won’t be able to match Rattler score for score, and he could be without his favorite target in Tylan Wallace, who is questionable.

Oklahoma is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Oklahoma State with four of those five wins coming by double-digits.  And I think the Sooners should be double-digit favorites here.  Finally, the Sooners are a perfect 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite of 7 points or less.  It’s rare we get the opportunity to back them in this role and we’ll take advantage this weekend in Bedlam.  Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +11

The Kansas State Wildcats will be ‘all in’ this week knowing they need a win to stay alive for the Big 12 title.  They are 4-2 within the conference with impressive wins over Oklahoma and TCU and a narrow 18-20 loss to Oklahoma State.  The Wildcats outgained the Cowboys by 114 yards in that game and deserved to win.

Now the Wildcats face an Iowa State team that they have owned over the last couple decades.  Indeed, Kansas State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 meetings with Iowa State with its only loss coming 38-42 after a blowing a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter.  So there’s no way the Wildcats should be double-digit dogs here against a team they simply own.

Iowa State is overvalued after a 5-1 start to the Big 12 conference season.  The Cyclones have gone 3-1 in games decided by a TD or less in conference play, so they have had some good fortune.  And their only two blowout wins came against the two worst teams in the Big 12 in Kansas and Texas Tech.  They aren’t about to blow out Kansas State.

Iowa State is 0-6 ATS in home games after having won four or five of hitter last six games over the last three seasons.  Kansas State is 6-0 ATS after allowing 3 points or less int he first half last game over the last three years.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Wildcats.  Take Kansas State Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Nevada +1.5

Nevada was a team I was very high on coming into the season and they have not let me down.  They returned 17 starters and a ton of experience, a prolific offense and one of the most improved defenses in the country due to the size the Wolf Pack have accumulated on the defensive line.

The Wolf Pack are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season and showing they can contend for a Mountain West title.  They are averaging 33.8 points and 481.8 yards per game on offense and giving up just 20.5 points and 317.8 yards per game on defense.  They feature a high-octane passing attack with 70.9% completions, 383 yards per game and 8.9 yards per attempt.

San Diego State moved on from Rocky Long and now had Brady Hoke back at head coach.  It’s definitely a step down at the head coaching position.  But the Aztecs are still solid this season as the cupboard wasn’t bare.  The Aztecs are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS this season.

The problem is their three wins have not been impressive at all as they’ve come against UNLV, Utah State and Hawaii.  The only decent team they faced was San Jose State, and they lost that game 17-28 as 10-point favorites.  Nevada will be the best team they have faced yet.

Nevada has given San Diego State problems under Jay Norvell.  The Wolf Pack are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two meetings with the Aztecs over the past two seasons with upset wins as 17.5-point dogs and 2-point dogs.  And this is the best team Norvell has had yet and it’s not even close.  There’s no way the Wolf Pack should be the underdogs in this game.

Norvell is 8-1 ATS in home games in the second half of the season as the coach of Nevada.    The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.  Bet Nevada Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Rice +2.5

The Rice Owls were one of my surprise teams coming into the season with all they returned.  They had 17 starters back for head coach Mike Bloomgren, who is molding this program into a mini Stanford after learning under David Shaw.  And now he finally has the right players in place to be the physical running team that he wants to be.

After so many Covid issues, Rice finally got to play its first game of the season against Middle Tennessee on October 24th.  They lost that game in overtime after committing three turnovers early and had to come from behind to force OT.  Then the next week they came out and blasted Southern Miss 30-6 as a 1.5-point favorite to live up to their potential.  Now the Owls have had three weeks to get ready for North Texas after more Covid cancelations.

North Texas has had problems of its own.  It has only been able to play three games this season.  The Mean Green lost 31-41 to Southern Miss, the same team that Rice beat by 26 giving them a common opponent.  Then they lost by 28 to Charlotte before beating Middle Tennessee 52-35.  Now they’ve had even more time off than Rice as their last game was played on October 17th.  I think they have to be rusty here having to wait over a month for their next game.

Rice upset North Texas 20-14 as a 7-point home underdog last year.  Now the Owls have 17 starters back from that team while the Mean Green only have 12 starters back.  The Owls are 6-1 ATS int heir last seven games as road underdogs and 8-2 ATS in their last eight road games overall.  The Mean Green are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  North Texas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win.  Roll with Rice Saturday.

15* App State/Coastal Carolina ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Coastal Carolina -4.5

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have passed every test that has been put in front of them.  They are 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS this season and outscoring opponents by 21.6 points per game.  They average 37.9 points and 442.3 yards per game offensively and give up just 16.3 points and 309.6 yards per game defensively.  They are the cream of the crop in the Sun Belt.

They went on the road and beat Louisiana-Lafayette, which made the title game the last two seasons.  And now the Chanticleers are ready to beat the defending Sun Belt champs in Appalachian State this weekend.  Not to mention, they have two full weeks to get ready for Appalachian State, so they’ll have a rest and preparation advantage.

Appalachian State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this year.  They are on their 3rd head coach in three years.  And while they are 6-1 SU, they are just 1-6 ATS failing to live up to expectations week after week.  And they’re once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week.

Last week, Appalachian State was fortunate to beat Georgia State 17-13 as an 18.5-point favorite in comeback fashion.  That’s the same Georgia State team that Coastal Carolina beat 51-0.  And making matters worse for the Mountaineers is that QB Zac Thomas was forced to leave that game with a back injury and is questionable to play Saturday.  So this is a beat up team that had to play last week while Coastal Carolina is coming off a bye.

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Appalachian State) - an excellent offensive team that average 6.2 YPP or more against a team with an average defense that allows 4.8 to 5.6 YPP, in conference games are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

The Mountaineers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall, including 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Chanticleers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Coastal Carolina Saturday.

20* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -7.5

The Air Force Falcons opened the season with an impressive 40-7 win over Navy.  Then they had two weeks off due to Covid issues before two straight losses to two good teams in San Jose State and Boise State.  And those games were closer than the final scores showed.  They were only outgained by 3 yards by SJSU in a 6-17 loss and actually outgained Boise State by 25 yards in their 30-49 loss.

Air Force has its triple-option rolling again this season.  The Falcons rushed for 415 yards on a good Boise State defense and have rushed for 330 yards per game and 5.9 per carry thus far this season.  Now they’ve had three weeks to get ready for New Mexico and should hang a big number on a terrible New Mexico defense that gives up 34.7 points and 491.3 yards per game this season.

This is a New Mexico team in rebuilding mode with just nine returning starters for head coach Troy Calhoun.  They have opened 0-3 this season and are getting too much respect from oddsmakers after covering the spread in their last two against Hawaii and Nevada.  They lost 21-38 to San Jose State and gave up 579 yards in defeat.  Air Force only gave up 294 total yards in its loss to SJSU earlier this season.

Air Force won by 22 and 18 points in its last two meetings with New Mexico over the last two seasons.  The Lobos are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games overall.  New Mexico is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Plays against road teams (New Mexico) - off two covers but two SU losses as an underdog, with a losing record on the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Falcons roll tonight at home.  Bet Air Force Friday.

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Seahawks -3

The Seattle Seahawks want revenge from blowing a 27-14 lead at Arizona and losing 34-37 (OT) a few weeks ago.  And I think they are just pissed off in general after losing three of their last four.  So we are going to get an inspired Seattle Seahawks team Thursday night, and that’s the type of team I want to be backing.

It’s easy to explain the losses here of late.  It’s simple, the schedule has gotten harder, and all the losses have been on the road to playoff contenders in Arizona, Buffalo and the LA Rams.  Now they return back home where they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season.  And playing at home on a short week here will be a big advantage for them.

Russell Wilson rarely loses back-to-back games, let alone two straight like he has.  Wilson is 32-9 SU in his career off a loss.  You know he’s going to be locked in here, especially after the Seahawks committed a combined 10 turnovers in the three road losses, mostly out of his hand.  Against, I like a motivated Wilson with a chip on his shoulder.

The Arizona Cardinals are pathetic defensively now that they’ve lost their top pass rusher in Chandler Jones to a biceps injury.  The Cardinals have allowed 30 or more points in three straight games coming in.  They gave up 572 yards to the Seahawks in that first meeting, and things should come easy for the Seahawks here.

I think this is also a great ‘buy low’ spot on Seattle after losing three of their last four.  The lookahead line for this game last week was Seahawks -5.5, and after Seattle lost to the Rams while Arizona had a miracle win on a Hail Mary over Buffalo, this line has now come back at -3.  Keep in mind the Seahawks were 3.5-point road favorites at Arizona in their first meeting, and now they are only 3-point home favorites in the rematch.  That’s an easy way to tell there is some serious line value with the Seahawks.

Seattle’s defense is getting healthier and as a result, better.  They held the Rams to 23 points last week.  That was a Rams team coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare for this Seattle defense.  So that was also a tough spot for the Seahawks.  And it was a good spot for Arizona last week catching Buffalo off back-to-back huge home wins over the Seahawks and Patriots.  And the Bills had to travel all the way out West and still played good enough to win that game.

Seattle is 51-32 ATS in its last 83 games off two or more consecutive losses.  Pete Carroll is 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Seattle.  Carrolls is 12-2 ATS off two consecutive losses as the coach of the Seahawks.  Seattle is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 Thursday games.  The Seahawks are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss.  Bet the Seahawks Thursday.

15* Tulane/Tulsa AAC ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa -6

Tulsa has already proved it can hang with the best teams in the AAC this season by knocking off UCF as a 20.5-point road underdog, 34-26.  And they played Oklahoma State, arguably the best team in the Big 12, down to the wire in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point road underdogs.  They also crushed South Florida 42-13 on the road before a shaky win against ECU that probably saw them overlooking the Pirates and looking ahead to last week’s game against SMU.

The Golden Hurricane started slow but finished fast, beating SMU 28-24 last week.  They racked up 455 total yards while limiting a very good SMU offense to just 351, outgaining them by 104 yards.  After getting revenge on the Mustangs, the revenge tour continues this week against Tulane.  The Golden Hurricane have lost the last three meetings in this series and these seniors are desperate to beat the Green Wave for the first time.

Tulane is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after winning three straight and going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But the schedule has gotten very easy as their last three games have been against Temple, ECU and Army.  And off their physical, misleading win over Army in which they only outgained the Black Knights by 65 yards last week, I think this is a good time to fade them.

Tulane is a tired team right now as it will be playing for a 7th consecutive week and this is a short week to boot with this Thursday night game.  No question Tulsa is going to be the fresher team after having a bye the week prior to SMU.  And this will be just their 5th game for the entire season due to Covid issues.  And the Golden Hurricane have remained remarkably healthy all season.

We have a couple common opponents here to compare these teams to that shows Tulsa is far and away the superior team.  Both have played SMU and UCF.  Tulsa beat UFC 34-26 and was only outgained by 17 yards.  Tulane lost to UCF 34-51 and was outgained by 349 yards in what was an even bigger blowout than the score showed.  Tulsa beat SMU 28-24 and outgained them by 104 yards.  Tulane lost 34-37 to SMU and was outgained by 194 yards and lucky to go to OT.  So Tulsa outgained SMU and UCF by a combined 87 yards, while Tulane was outgained by those two teams by a combined 543 yards.  That’s over a 600-yard difference.

Tulane is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 road games off two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Green Wave are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  The Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings with Tulane.  The favorite is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Tulsa Thursday.

20* Toledo/Eastern Michigan MAC No-Brainer on Eastern Michigan +6.5

Eastern Michigan has played well this season to start but has come up on the short end of the stick both times.  They lost 23-27 on the road as 5.5-point dogs to Kent State and 31-38 on the road to Ball State as 8-point dogs, covering the number in both games.  Now they get to play their first home game of the season and will be highly motivated for a victory.

I really like what I’ve seen from new EMU QB Parker Hutchison.  He is completing 59.4% of his passes for 491 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 88 yards and four scores.  His dual-threat ability makes him tough to stop and I think he will have plenty of success against Toledo here.

I certainly have my questions about this Toledo team that went 6-6 last year and gave up 32.2 points and 476 yards per game defensively.  They do have 14 starters back and should be improved, but head coach Jason Candle is declining.  He took advantage of the players Matt Campbell recruited before him and went 9-4 and 11-3 in his first two seasons.  But since he has had his players in place, the Rockets have gone just 7-6 and 6-6 the last two seasons.

I’m not willing to give Toledo much respect for its 38-3 win over Bowling Green as a 24-point favorite in the opener.  The Rockets were 24-point favorites in that game, and the Falcons are clearly the worst team in the MAC.  Then last week the Rockets blew a 10-point lead in the final three minutes and lost to Western Michigan.  It will be very hard for them to get back up off the mat in time to face Eastern Michigan tonight.

Toledo is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games.  Eastern Michigan is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games as an underdog.  The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Eastern Michigan Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo -30.5

The Buffalo Bulls should be the best team in the MAC this year.  They went 8-5 last season and while they didn’t win the MAC, I would have had them favored over every team in the conference in the title game.  They were 2nd in the MAC with a +138.0 yards per game differential and they only got better as the season went on.

Now head coach Lance Leipold has his best team yet with 15 returning starters, making the Bulls the 16th-most experienced team in the country.  They also got in nine spring practices, which was the second-most in the MAC.  That’s a huge advantage heading into this shortened MAC season.

The Bulls are loaded everywhere on offense with eight returning starters.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers in Jaret Patterson (1,799 yards, 19 TD, 5.8/carry last year) and Kevin Marks (1,035, 8 TD, 4.6/carry).  Each of their top three receivers are back as are their top two quarterbacks.  They return seven starters defensively from a unit that gave up just 21.3 points per game last year.  They are great at getting after opposing quarterbacks, recording 43 sacks last year.

Buffalo got off to a nice start this season with a 49-30 win as a closing 14.5-point favorite at Northern Illinois.  Buffalo led 49-16 with five minutes left in the 4th quarter.  Northern Illinois tacked on two garbage touchdowns in the final five minutes to make the score appear closer than it was.  The Bulls averaged 7.0 yards per play offensively while giving up just 5.0 yards per play to the Huskies.

Then last week the Bulls really put it on Miami Ohio, the defending MAC champs.  They won that game 42-10 and it was every bit the blowout that the final score would suggest.  The Bulls racked up 558 yards on a good Miami defense and only gave up 258 yards, outgaining them by 300 yards.

Now Buffalo takes on the worst team in the MAC in Bowling Green.  The Falcons lost 3-38 at Toledo in their opener and 24-62 at home to Kent State last week.  That’s a 35-point loss to Toledo and a 38-point loss to Kent State.  So now they have to face the best team in the MAC in Buffalo here and the Bulls should have no problem winning this game by 31-plus points to cover this number.

Bowling Green is 1-11 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with all eight wins coming by 19 points or more.  The Falcons are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 home games.  Bet Buffalo Tuesday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +3

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Chicago Bears, who are coming off three straight losses to three of the better teams in the NFL in the Rams, Saints and Titans.  Two of those were on the road, and one was an overtime home loss to the Saints.

At the same time, it’s a great time to ‘sell high’ on the Vikings, who are coming off two straight wins and covers over the Packers and the Lions.  They had a bye week coming into that game with the Packers and caught them by surprise, revenging an earlier loss.  And they caught the Lions without Kenny Golloday, and with Matthew Stafford sitting out practice all week due to Covid-19 protocol.  Stafford eventually was knocked out of the game with a concussion as well.

So we’re going to get a Bears team highly motivated to bounce back from three straight losses following their 5-1 start this season.  And we’re going to get a fat and happy Vikings team that has rebounded from their 1-5 start with two straight wins.  The Bears are still the better team in my opinion with the much better defense and should be favored here.

Minnesota gives up 29.3 points and 412.9 yards per game this season.  Chicago only allows 21.1 points and 335.1 yards per game this year.  The Vikings do have the better offense, but this is one of the stiffest tests they will have faced all season.  They have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing defenses of any team in the NFL thus far.  The only legit defense they faced they lost 11-28 on the road to the Colts. 

I foresee us getting the bad Kirk Cousins Monday night.  The Bears have owned Cousins and the Vikings, going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings and a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  They have held the Vikings to an average of just 16.3 points per game in those six meetings, and the Vikings have failed to top 23 points once in this stretch.

The Vikings are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 Monday Night games, including 0-7 ATS in their last seven MNF road games.  The Bears are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as home underdogs.  Chicago is 19-4 ATS in its last 23 games off three straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  The Bears are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5 or more yards per carry.  Bet the Bears Monday.

25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals +8

This is a great spot to back the Cincinnati Bengals this week.  The Bengals are coming off their bye week, so they have two weeks to get ready for the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They should put together one of their best performances of the season in this spot.

The Bengals are undervalued because of their 2-5-1 record this season.  But they are 6-2 ATS with only one loss by more than 5 points all season.  They are much better than their record would indicate.  Joe Burrow is having a Rookie of the Year type season and always keeps his team in games.  The guy is 19-6 ATS in his last 25 games as a starter dating back to his time at LSU.

The Steelers are overvalued due to being the last remaining unbeaten team at 8-0 this season.  I faded them last week with success on the Cowboys +14 in a game that the Cowboys probably should have won outright in a 19-24 defeat.  And I’m fading the Steelers again this week laying more than a touchdown to the rested and ready Bengals.

The Steelers have had Covid-19 issues this week that have forced some players to miss practice all week, including Big Ben.  And Big Ben injured his knee against the Cowboys and won’t be 100% even if he does play.  It would just be an added bonus if he sits out.

The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Cincinnati is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog.  The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Dolphins -2.5

I’ve been riding the Miami Dolphins all season and it has paid off.  The Dolphins are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and head coach Brian Flores is clearly in the discussion for Coach of the Year.  They are coming off two straight upsets over the Rams and Cardinals and are now 3-1 against the NFC West this season, which has been tabbed as the best division in the NFL.

The Dolphins are underrated because they play great defense.  They are only giving up 20.1 points per game this season.  And their offense showed what it could do last week with Too Tagovailoa leading them to 34 points against the Cardinals.  He completed 20 of 28 passes for 248 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, while also rushing for 35 yards on seven attempts.  I don’t believe he’s a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the playbook actually gets bigger with Tua under center.

I went into the week thinking the Dolphins could be getting too much respect off those two upset wins this week.  But that’s simply not the case as they are only 2.5-point home favorites here against the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Chargers are just 2-6 this season and they just find ways to lose games.  

They have blown leads of 16 points or more in four games this season, losing three of them.  And last week they nearly completed a comeback of their own against the Raiders, only to have their touchdown on the final play of the game overturned with a booth review. I don’t know how much more heartbreak this team can take.  And this might finally be the week where they just fail to show up.

What I also like about the Dolphins is that they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  The Chargers have some key losses along the offensive line, and now Joey Bosa is doubtful with a concussion.  Their defense is so much better when they have Bosa and Ingram to rush the passer, but without Bosa that is a huge deal and Tua should be able to extend plays with his feet.

I just think this is a great value on a Dolphins team playing with a ton of confidence right now while also fighting for an AFC East Title with the Buffalo Bills.  The Chargers have little to play for the rest of the way, and while I don’t expect them to pack it in, I think this is a bad spot for them off two straight heartbreaking defeats in the final seconds.  And it’s a West Coast team having to travel East, which is always a tough situation.

The Chargers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game.  They are losing by 6.9 points per game in this spot.  The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing Miami.  Take the Dolphins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are in a great spot here Sunday.  They are coming off their bye week and are now as healthy as they have been basically all season.  They will have six key players back that they didn’t have in their first meeting with the Giants a few weeks ago.

Miles Sanders, Alshon Jeffery, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Raegor, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson all didn’t suit up against the Giants in their first meeting on October 22nd.  And that game wasn’t nearly as close as the 21-22 final score would indicate.  The Eagles racked up 422 total yards in that game and outgained the Giants by 117 yards.  They are clearly the superior team with all these players back and off their bye.

Speaking of misleading finals, the Giants beat the Redskins 23-20 last week.  But they won the turnover battle 5-0 and were still only able to win by a field goal.  And Washington starting QB Kyle Allen was knocked out of the game in the first quarter, leaving the offense in the hands of the terrible Alex Smith.  And even Smith went on to complete 24-of-32 passes for 325 yards against this soft New York defense.

The Eagles have one of the better defenses in the NFL, giving up 340.1 yards per game on the season.  They have had just a mediocre offense up to this point, but with all these reinforcements coming back from injury along the offensive line and at the skill positions, the Eagles should easily have a Top 10 offense moving forward.

The Eagles simply own the Giants, going 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings.  Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Giants are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.  New York is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog.  The Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 trips to New York.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Eagles Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +10.5

Oregon figures to take a big step back this year after a 12-2 season last year that resulted in a Pac-12 title.  Losing QB Justin Herbert is a big blow when you consider how good he has looked with the Los Angeles Chargers in the NFL this season.  They return just three starters on offense and lose all five starters along the offensive line.  They were supposed to have eight starters back on defense, but they lost two starters in CB Thomas Graham and S Brady Breeze for personal reasons.  So they wind up having just nine returning starters.

Oregon caught a huge break in their opener when Stanford QB Davis Mills and his top receiver were both ruled out on the day of the game.  The Ducks won that game 35-14 as 11-point favorites.  But Stanford went 0-for-4 on field goals and came up short on two other trips in Oregon territory.  It was a closer game than the final score suggests.  But since it wound up being a 21-point difference, I think Oregon is being overvalued this week as double-digit road favorites over Washington State.

Nick Rolovich guided Hawaii to a 10-win season last year and a trip to the Mountain West title game.  He parlayed that incredible success into a job at Washington State this year.  And he’s already off to an impressive start with an upset 38-28 road win at Oregon State as a 3-point dog in the opener.  He stepped into a decent situation as the Cougars returned 14 starters this season.

QB Jaden De Laura followed Rolovich from Hawaii and had a great game against Oregon State, throwing for 227 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 43 yards and a score.  And Washington State’s defense played great for three quarters as it was a 28-7 game late in the third quarter.  But Oregon State dig tack on some garbage time scores to make the final score appear closer than it was.  So again, I think we are getting extra value with Washington State because of that.

Washington State has won four of its last five meetings with Oregon outright with its only loss coming by two points.  Better yet, the Cougars are a perfect 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Enough said.  Take Washington State Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa -2.5

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have over two weeks to get ready for the SMU Mustangs after last playing East Carolina on Friday, October 30th.  They have had this game circled all offseason after blowing a 30-9 lead in the 4th quarter to SMU last year, only to lose 37-43 in overtime.  This is a game they desperately want.

Tulsa has already proved it can hang with the best teams in the AAC this season by knocking off UCF as a 20.5-point road underdog, 34-26.  And they played Oklahoma State, arguably the best team in the Big 12, down to the wire in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point road underdogs.  They also crushed South Florida 42-13 on the road before a shaky win against ECU that probably saw them overlooking the Pirates and looking ahead to this game against SMU.

While the Golden Hurricane are rested and ready, the Mustangs are a tired team right now as this will be their 9th game already this season.  It will only be the 5th game for Tulsa.  And the Mustangs will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and their 9th game in 10 weeks.

Tulsa has a very good defense this season, holding opponents to 21.3 points per game, 373 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  They are holding their opponents to 9.3 points per game, 74 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play less than their season averages.  SMU is giving up 28.6 points per game, 419.8 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.

And keep in mind that SMU has built up its stats against a soft schedule.  Their seven wins have come against Texas State, North Texas, Stephen F. Austin, Memphis, Tulane, Navy and Temple.  Their lone loss came in emphatic fashion by a final of 13-42 to Cincinnati.  And they only beat Memphis and Tulane by 3 points each, which were their next two toughest games.

SMU is 0-6 ATS when the total is 63.5 to 70 over the last three seasons.  The Mustangs are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games.  SMU is 15-32 ATS in its last 47 games off a conference win by 10 points or more.  The Golden Hurricane are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Tulsa Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +14

The Boston College Eagles are live underdogs this week against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  Just two weeks ago they only lost to Clemson by 6 as 26.5-point underdogs.  So they showed they could play with a team like Clemson.  And that effort will give them the confidence they need to compete with a team like Notre Dame.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Fighting Irish.  They just beat Clemson in double-overtime last week in their biggest game of the season.  That overtime win probably took a lot out of them.  And now they are getting a lot of love being ranked as the No. 2 team in the country.  This is exactly the spot that I love to fade the Fighting Irish.

Boston College will be ‘all in’ this week knowing they have a bye on deck next week.  They would love nothing more than to upset rival Notre Dame.  QB Phil Jurkovec is a former Notre Dame transfer who is out to prove that the Fighting Irish made the wrong decision going with Ian Book over him.  Jurkovec is having a great season with 62.1% completions, over 2,000 passing yards and a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  He has also rushed for three scores on the ground.

The Eagles are 5-3 this season with two of their losses coming by 6 points or less to two of the better teams in the country in Clemson (28-34) and North Carolina (22-26).  Their only blowout loss came to Virginia Tech, and that was a very misleading score as the Eagles lost the turnover battle 5-0.

Boston College is 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 conference games, clearly being the most underrated team in the ACC over the last several years.  The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia State +16

Appalachian State has a huge game on deck next week against No. 15 Coastal Carolina, which is 7-0 and their top contender to win the Sun Belt.  I think they’ll be looking ahead to that game, and they won’t be giving Georgia State the proper respect they deserve in this contest.  That will allow Georgia State to stay within this massive number.

Keep in mind Georgia State was only a 4-point dog to Coastal Carolina just two weeks ago, and now they are 16-point dogs to Appalachian State.  That’s some line value folks.  And they bounced back with a 52-34 home win over Louisiana Monroe.  Appalachian State also beat Louisiana Monroe by 18 points two weeks ago, 31-13.  And they failed to cover against Texas State in a 21-point win as 21.5-point favorites last week.  

Georgia State is a lot better than both of those squads and could easily be 5-1 instead of 3-3 this season with two of their losses coming to Louisiana 31-34 in OT and Arkansas State 52-59.  They also upset ECU from the AAC and upset Troy on the road as well.  The Panthers boast an offense that puts up 36.7 points per game this season behind a balanced attack that average 215 rushing yards and 198 passing yards per game.

The Mountaineers are now 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.  This team has been overvalued all season and continues to be this week.  And it’s a bad spot for Appalachian State with their game of the year on deck against Coastal Carolina next week.  Take Georgia State Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on West Virginia -3

The West Virginia Mountaineers are just 4-3 this season.  They are flying under the radar in the Big 12 and are the most underrated team in the conference in my opinion.  They have the stats to back it up, too.

The Mountaineers were only outgained by 3 yards in their 13-17 loss at Texas as 6.5-point dogs last week.  They outgained Texas Tech by 90 yards in their 27-34 road loss.  And they outgained Oklahoma State by 11 yards in their 13-27 road loss.  So all three losses have come on the road for the Mountaineers.

Now West Virginia is back home where they are 4-0 this season and outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game.  What I really like about West Virginia is that they are outgaining their opponents by 178.9 yards per game.  Their offense averages 449.9 yards per game and their defense gives up just 271.0 yards per game, giving them the best defense in the Big 12 to this point.

TCU is coming off two straight wins over Big 12 bottom feeders in Baylor and Texas Tech.  They rushed for 247 yards and only threw for 138 against Baylor.  They rushed for 270 yards and only threw for 73 against Texas Tech.  So they have been a run-heavy offense, which plays right into West Virginia’s hands defensively.  The Mountaineers only allow 109 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.

West Virginia is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with TCU.  The Mountaineers weren’t very good last year, and they still won outright 20-17 over TCU as 14-point road dogs.  In their last two trips to West Virginia, TCU has lost by 37 and 24 points.  Bet West Virginia Saturday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on East Carolina +28

The Cincinnati Bearcats are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers now that they are 6-0 and currently ranked 7th in the country in the AP Poll.  Now they are four-touchdown favorites over East Carolina this week and it’s time to fade them.  The betting public has caught onto this team by now and it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Bearcats.

It’s also a great time to ‘buy low’ on the East Carolina Pirates.  They are just 1-5 this season but have been pretty competitive as they are only getting outscored by 8.0 points per game on the season.  They got robbed of a win as 17-point dogs in a 30-34 loss to Tulsa as the Golden Hurricane had three calls go their way on the final drive.  The AAC came out and said the officials made a mistake after the game.  And keep in mind that’s a very good Tulsa team that upset UCF and nearly upset Oklahoma State.

I think the Pirates suffered a hangover from that defeat last week, losing 21-38 at home to Tulane.  That’s a Tulane team that is improving rapidly as well.  And now ECU still hasn’t lost a game by more than 23 points this season despite playing a tougher schedule than Cincinnati has.

Cincinnati has benefited from a home-heavy schedule with six of their first seven games at home.  And it’s a terrible spot for Cincinnati.  They are coming off three straight wins and covers over AAC contenders in SMU, Memphis and Houston, and now they have a road game at UCF on deck.  That makes this the classic sandwich game for the Bearcats.  I think they’ll be taking ECU lightly here, which will allow the Pirates to stay within the number.

These teams do have a common opponent in South Florida.  ECU beat South Florida 44-24 on the road back on October 10th.  Cincinnati only beat South Florida 28-7 at home as 22-point favorites in a game that was a lot closer than the final score.  They only gained 332 total yards in that game and outgained USF by only 41 yards.

East Carolina does have a good offense that puts up 29.2 points per game, which will allow them to stay within this number as they will put together drives and score on this Cincinnati defense.  I really like ECU QB Holton Ahlers, who is completing 63.1% of his passes with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He is very mobile and his mobility will help him escape this strong Cincinnati defensive line when he drops back to pass.

The Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.  The Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Finally, East Carolina only lost 43-46 at home to Cincinnati as a 24.5-point underdog last year.  The Pirates had 608 total yards in that defeat.  Ahlers threw for 535 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for a score in defeat.  Bet East Carolina Friday.

20* Colts/Titans AFC South No-Brainer on Tennessee ML +103

The Tennessee Titans are 6-2 this season with their only losses coming at home to the Steelers and on the road to the Bengals.  They got back in the win column with a 24-17 victory over the Bears last week in what was a 24-3 game before the Bears scored some points in garbage time to make the score closer than it was.

That was a box score against the Bears that lied last week, and I think it’s creating some line value here on the Titans getting them as home underdogs.  The Bears outgained the Titans by nearly 150 yards, but they got almost all those yards in garbage time after the game was already decided.  And the Bears ran 20 more plays than the Titans did.  The Titans just basically tried to milk the clock after taking a 24-3 lead in the 4th quarter.

The Colts lost 24-10 to the Ravens last week.  But the early money is on the Colts this week because of another box score that favored the Colts.  They outgained the Ravens by 73 yards.  But they went just 2-of-12 on 3rd down in another terrible performance by Philip Rivers when he has stepped up on competition.

Speaking of competition, the Colts have played the easiest schedule in the entire NFL according to Football Outsiders.  They are 5-3 this season with their five wins coming against the Vikings, Jets, Bears, Bengals and Lions.  And keep in mind they lost to the Jaguars and Browns.  Even after playing a good team in the Ravens, they still have the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL, which shows just how easy it has been.

Rivers just doesn’t have the same caliber of weapons in Indianapolis as he did with the Chargers.  TY Hilton can’t stay healthy and is questionable again tonight.  And now Rivers has lost his favorite tight end in Jack Doyle.  There’s no question the Titans have a huge advantage on offense with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and company.  They are scoring 29.0 points per game this season.

The Titans are 4-1 at home this season and winning by 7.8 points per game.  Again, their only home loss was to the unbeaten Steelers.  The Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC opponents.  Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs.  Bet the Titans on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Toledo/WMU ESPN No-Brainer on Western Michigan -2.5

The Western Michigan Broncos had one of the best recruiting classes in the MAC this year. They also got in eight spring practices, which was the third-most in the conference.  They are legit contenders to win the conference this year despite having just 11 returning starters.

That was evident when they blasted Akron 58-13 in the opener.  They averaged 8.3 yards per play on what was expected to be an improve Akron team. They held the Zips to just 256 total yards and an average of only 4.0 yards per play.  Sophomore QB Kaleb Eleby threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns on only 16 attempts, so he couldn’t have been any better.

I certainly have my questions about this Toledo team that went 6-6 last year and gave up 32.2 points and 476 yards per game defensively.  They do have 14 starters back and should be improved, but head coach Jason Candle is declining.  He took advantage of the players Matt Campbell recruited before him and went 9-4 and 11-3 in his first two seasons.  But since he has had his players in place, the Rockets have went just 7-6 and 6-6 the last two seasons.

I’m not willing to give Toledo much respect for its 38-3 win over Bowling Green as a 24-point favorite in the opener.  The Rockets were 24-point favorites in that game, and the Falcons are clearly the worst team in the MAC.  I think that result has the Rockets overvalued here with the Broncos only having to lay 2.5 points in this game at home.

Western Michigan wants revenge from a 24-31 road loss to Toledo last year.  And all of the Broncos’ losses came on the road last season as they went a perfect 6-0 SU at home.  Now they get the Rockets at home this time around.

The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  Toledo is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Western Michigan Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo -9.5

The Buffalo Bulls should be the best team in the MAC this year.  They went 8-5 last season and while they didn’t win the MAC, I would have had them favored over every team in the conference in the title game.  They were 2nd in the MAC with a +138.0 yards per game differential and they only got better as the season went on.

Now head coach Lance Leipold has his best team yet with 15 returning starters, making the Bulls the 16th-most experienced team in the country.  They also got in nine spring practices, which was the second-most in the MAC.  That’s a huge advantage heading into this shortened MAC season.

The Bulls are loaded everywhere on offense with eight returning starters.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers in Jaret Patterson (1,799 yards, 19 TD, 5.8/carry last year) and Kevin Marks (1,035, 8 TD, 4.6/carry).  Each of their top three receivers are back as are their top two quarterbacks.  They return seven starters defensively from a unit that gave up just 21.3 points per game last year.  They are great at getting after opposing quarterbacks, recording 43 sacks last year.

Buffalo got off to a nice start this season with a 49-30 win as a closing 14.5-point favorite at Northern Illinois.  Buffalo led 49-16 with five minutes left in the 4th quarter.  Northern Illinois tacked on two garbage touchdowns in the final five minutes to make the score appear closer than it was.  The Bulls averaged 7.0 yards per play offensively while giving up just 5.0 yards per play to the Huskies.

Miami Ohio is coming off a misleading 38-31 win over Ball State.  The Redhawks gave up a whopping 478 total yards to the Cardinals and 6.8 yards per play.  They only averaged 5.7 yards per play on offense against a bad Ball State defense.  They are overvalued now after winning that game when they really shouldn’t have.

Also, I think the motivation favors Buffalo here.  Miami Ohio came out of nowhere to win the MAC last season and they were probably no better than a middle of the pack team.  They had a misleading 34-20 win over Buffalo last year that was a key to them making the title game.  Buffalo lost the turnover battle 4-0 in that game and found a way to lose despite rushing for 309 yards and holding Miami Ohio to just 265 total yards.  It’s revenge time tonight as the Bulls flex their muscle and win this game by double-digits.

Buffalo is now 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall with all seven wins coming by 19 points or more.  The Bulls are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent.  Buffalo is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games.  The Bulls are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 conference games.  Bet Buffalo Tuesday.

20* Patriots/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New England -7

The New England Patriots aren’t going to give up on their season under Bill Belichick.  They are just 2-5 on the season but everything is still in front of them, and I like the quotes I’m hearing from the players heading into this game with the New York Jets Monday night.  They nearly upset the Bills on the road last week, which shows they have not quit.

If there was ever a ‘get right’ game for the Patriots, this would be it.  They take on the worst team in the NFL in the New York Jets, who are 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS with all eight losses coming by 8 points or more and by an average of 18.0 points per game.  And we are getting the Patriots here at less than that 8-point margin as only 7-point favorites.

The numbers show the Patriots to be an average team and better than their 2-5 record.  They are only getting outgained by 5.6 yards per game on the season.  Compare that to the Jets, who are getting outgained by 140 yards per game, and the Patriots should roll to an easy win and cover.  And because this is a National TV game on Monday Night Football, the Patriots will show up and handle their business.

Plays against home underdogs or PK (NY Jets) - a poor team that is outgained by 50 or more yards per game, after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Jets are 0-6 ATS after being outgained by 150 or more yards in their previous game over the last two seasons.  Bet the Patriots Monday.

15* Saints/Bucs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay -4.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers want revenge from a 23-34 road loss to the New Orleans Saints in the season opener.  Of course the Bucs were a completely new team and they weren’t going to be clicking in Week 1.  That proved to be the case as Tom Brady threw a pick-six which was the difference.  It’s worth noting the Bucs still outgained the Saints by 39 yards in that loss as it was closer than the score would suggest.

It’s safe to say the Bucs have gotten it together since.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall while outscoring their opponents by an average of 13.3 points per game.  Their offense has been rolling with 25-plus points in all six wins.  Brady has unlimited weapons, and their defense is one of the best in the NFL, giving up just 20.6 points per game and 299.5 yards per game this season.

I’m willing to throw out Tampa Bay’s narrow win over the New York Giants last week.  That was clearly a sandwich spot off two huge blowout wins over the Packers and Raiders, and knowing they had this game against the Saints on deck this week.  They didn’t bring their best effort against the Giants and still managed to win.

The Saints are very fortunate to be 5-2 this season.  And it’s worth noting their two losses have come to the Packers and Raiders, two teams the Bucs beat by a combined 53 points.  They have been fortunate during their current four-game winning streak winning four one-score games by 6 points or fewer over the Lions, Chargers, Panthers and Bears.  Those are four mediocre teams at best.  This is a big step up in class for the Saints.

Drew Brees looks like a shell of his former self with terrible arm strength, and now he has popped up on the injury report with a throwing shoulder ailment.  We still don’t know if Michael Thomas will make his return.  And their defense has some key injuries and hasn’t played well all season.  The Saints give up 28.1 points per game on the year.  This is where it really catches up to them as Tom Brady lights up that soft defense, and the Bucs shut down Brees and company in a huge revenge game that will likely decide the division.

New Orleans is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off two straight wins by 3 points or less.  The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.  New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing Tampa Bay tonight.  Roll with the Bucs Sunday.

15* Dolphins/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Miami +5

The Miami Dolphins have been one of my favorite teams to back this season because the betting public just doesn’t want to buy into them.  I have fully bought in and it has paid dividends.  And I think they’ve being undervalued again this week as 5-point road dogs to the Arizona Cardinals.

I’m buying into the Dolphins because they have an underrated defense and a head coach in Brian Flores who is getting everything out of his players.  They love playing for this guy.  The defense is giving up just 18.6 points per game on the season and just 17.0 points per game on the road.

Offensively, the Dolphins are scoring 26.9 points per game, so they are outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per game on the season.  I don’t think Tua is an upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it’s also not as much of a downgrade as many believe it is.  I think it’s pretty much a wash at this point and time will tell.

Many bettors are looking at that misleading box score from last week that saw the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17 as 3-point home dogs.  The Dolphins basically got three touchdowns off turnovers.  But their defense does force turnovers as they have forced at least one in every game this season and a total of 13 on the year.  Tua didn’t have to do much as they took a conservative approach offensively, so they have plenty of hidden secrets with Tua’s playbook that they can unleash on Arizona this week.

Some bye weeks are better than others.  I strongly believe this was a bad time for the Cardinals to have their bye week.  They had a lot of momentum going into their bye with three straight victories, blowing out both the Jets and Cowboys and upsetting the Seahawks in overtime.  So they went into their bye feeling fat and happy instead of hungry. And I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them come out rusty and flat this week, especially off that huge win over Seattle.

No team has head better health than Miami this season as they only have four players on the injury report currently.  That’s impressive when you consider how many teams have been decimated by injuries in this crazy pandemic season.  To compare, the Cardinals have 13 players on their injury report even coming off their bye week, and a lot of them are key players.

Miami is a perfect 7-0 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9 over the last two seasons.  The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Plays against any team (Arizona) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 79-35 (69.3%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Dolphins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Cowboys +14

The Dallas Cowboys are one of just three teams since 1989 to start a season 0-8 ATS.  No team has started 0-9 ATS during this span.  So the Cowboys would make history if they don’t cover this spread Sunday.  It’s safe to say this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Cowboys this week.

The Cowboys will likely be starting Cooper Rush at quarterback this week, which would be an upgrade over Ben Dinucci, who has been terrible.  And things have gotten better for them on the injury front both on defense and on the offensive line.  They still have a chance to win the division, and they will fight until they are eliminated.

Not only is it a great ‘buy low’ spot on Dallas in their biggest underdog role this season, it’s also a ’sell high’ spot on the Steelers.  Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS and making the public a lot of money this season.  Now the Steelers find themselves in their biggest favorite role of the season here against the Cowboys.

It’s also a huge letdown spot for the Steelers.  They are coming off two straight huge wins.  They handed the Titans their first loss of the season two weeks ago, and last week they somehow beat their biggest rivals in the Ravens despite getting outgained by 236 yards.  Now they are feeling fat and happy and this is the perfect spot for them to lay an egg against the Cowboys, which will keep this game closer than the oddsmakers expect.

Pittsburgh was in a dog fight with the Eagles a few weeks back.  And Dallas gave Philadelphia a run for its money last week.  The Cowboys forced four turnovers and held the Eagles to just 222 total yards and had a chance to win it late before Dinucci fumbled and it was returned for a TD.  Their defense is improving, and their offense is still one of the most talented in the entire NFL.  There is enough talent on this roster to compete with the Steelers even with a fourth different starting QB this week.

Pittsburgh is 12-29 ATS in its last 41 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  The Steelers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.  Dallas is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 home games after having lost three of its last four coming in.  Mike Tomlin is 5-15 ATS vs. teams that are outscored by 10 or more points per game as the coach of the Steelers.  Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog.  Take the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers +11

Let’s get this remarkable stat out of the way early.  Teddy Bridgewater is 22-5 ATS as an underdog as a starting quarterback in the NFL.  And it’s a great spot for the Panthers this week.  They have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday against the Falcons, so they should be the fresher, more prepared team.

Now the Panthers should also get back their best playmaker in Christian McCaffrey from an ankle injury.  He means everything to this team.  And the way to beat the Chiefs is to run on them.  Kansas City gives up 143 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry this season.  That’s remarkable when you consider the Chiefs play with a lead most the time and teams usually have to throw the ball to try and come back. Look for the Panthers to play keep away from Patrick Mahomes and to run the football and go on long scoring drives as a result.

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Panthers coming off three straight losses.  It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Chiefs coming off three straight wins and covers.  They weren’t just any wins either, they were blowout wins against two of the worst teams in the NFL in the Broncos by 27 and the Jets by 26 in their last two games.  And that win over the Broncos was very misleading.  This is a big step up in class now for the Chiefs, and I have a feeling they might be sleep-walking this week knowing that they have a big lead in the division and a bye next week to look ahead to.

A big reason Bridgewater is such a good underdog is because he doesn’t turn the ball over.  The Panthers have had zero turnovers in four of their eight games this season and just one turnover in two of them.  The Chiefs have forced one or more turnovers in every game this year.  Bridgewater will take care of the ball in this game, and those long, time-consuming drives he takes the Panthers on will pay dividends and keep this game a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.

Andy Reid is 0-6 ATS in home games after gaining six or more yards per play in four consecutive games as the coach of the Chiefs having never covered in this situation.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

25* NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -2.5

I love the spot for the Washington Redskins Sunday.  They are coming off their bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for the Giants.  They will be fresh and ready to go, and they will want revenge from a 19-20 road loss to the Giants just a few weeks back after they came up short on a 2-point conversion late.

It’s a bad spot for the Giants.  They are coming off back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Eagles (21-22) and Bucs (23-25) in their last two games.  They may suffer a hangover here, and they will also be on a short week after playing the Bucs on Monday Night Football.  They won’t be nearly as excited to fade Washington as they were to face Tom Brady and the Bucs on National TV.  That’s especially the case since they’ve already beaten Washington this season.

I would argue Washington deserved to win that first meeting.  They racked up 337 total yards in that game and held the Giants to just 240 total yards, outgaining them by 97 yards.  And Washington went on to crush Dallas 25-3 in their final game before the bye while holding the Cowboys to just 142 total yards.  They have an underrated defense that can keep them in games, and they clearly have the better defense in this matchup.

The Redskins have been at their best offensively when they’ve had Kyle Allen at quarterback.  He is a lot better than he gets credit for.  Allen is completing 68.8% of his passes with four touchdowns and only one interception in his three starts this season.  He is also mobile with 26 rushing yards and a score.

Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.  Plays against road underdogs or PK (NY Giants) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, a bad team that wins less than 25% of their games playing a team with a losing record are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.  Bet Washington Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford +10.5

The Stanford Cardinal are big bounce-back candidates in 2020.  They had won at least eight games in each of the previous eight seasons under head coach David Shaw.  But they fell to 4-8 last season due to injuries and attrition.  Now they go from having just nine returning starters last year all the way up to 16 returning starters this year and now they’re a veteran team.

Stanford boasts one of the best quarterbacks in the Pac-12 in Davis Mills.  He completed 65.6% of his passes last year after taking over for KJ Costello.  He was a Top 5 recruit coming out of high school.  And the Cardinal should get back to running the football this season with four returning starters along the offensive line and top recruits Austin Jones and EJ Smith in the backfield.  The defense will also be a lot better after an aberration year in which they gave up 29.8 points per game last season.

Oregon figures to take a big step back this year after a 12-2 season last year that resulted in a Pac-12 title.  Losing QB Justin Herbert is a big blow when you consider how good he has looked with the Los Angeles Chargers in the NFL this season.  They return just three starters on offense and lose all five starters along the offensive line.  They were supposed to have eight starters back on defense, but they lost two starters in CB Thomas Graham and S Brady Breeze for personal reasons.  So they wind up having just nine returning starters.

The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Ducks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as home favorites.  Bet Stanford Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee -1.5

This is a great spot to back the Tennessee Vols.  They are coming off three straight losses, so it’s a ‘buy low’ opportunity.  Two of those losses were to two of the best teams in the country in Alabama and Georgia.  And the other was a misleading loss to a quality Kentucky team in which they gave up just 294 yards to the Wildcats but committed four turnovers.

Now the Vols are coming off their bye week, so they’ve had two weeks to recover.  And you know they were practicing with a chip on their shoulder during their time off and will bring their best effort Saturday to try and end this skid.  And they are are taking a big step down in competition here against Arkansas.

The Razorbacks come in way overvalued after a perfect 5-0 ATS start this season.  They were down 42-17 late in the 4th quarter last week to Texas A&M but scored two touchdowns in the final minutes to cover the 14.5-point spread and remain unbeaten ATS. Now they are basically a pick ‘em here against a team like Tennessee that has way more talent than they do.

Tennessee is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 road games off two straight games where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  The Vols are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games as road favorites of 7 points or less.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/South Carolina ESPN ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +10

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the South Carolina Gamecocks off their 24-52 road loss to LSU last time out.  But they’ve had two weeks to get ready for Texas A&M and will have been practicing with a chip on their shoulder leading up to this game.  Look for them to give Texas A&M a run for its money in this game.

South Carolina has played well at home this season.  They only lost to Tennessee 27-31 as 3.5-point dogs and upset Auburn 30-22 as 3-point dogs.  And we just saw Auburn blast LSU last week 48-11, so that win over Auburn looks even better, and the loss to LSU was clearly just an aberration.  South Carolina also played Florida pretty tough on the road earlier this season and blasted Vanderbilt, so that loss to LSU was their only bad performance this year.

Texas A&M is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as a double-digit road favorite.  They lost by 28 at Alabama and beat a bad Mississippi State team 28-14 in their previous two road games.  They failed to cover last week against Arkansas at home and gave up 461 total yards to the Razorbacks.  

South Carolina’s improved offense will move the football and score points on this Texas A&M defense that has now allowed 31-plus points in three of their five games this season.  The only exceptions were against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.  And keep in mind they only beat Vanderbilt 17-12, while South Carolina blasted Vanderbilt 41-7.

The Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +13

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Kansas State this week off their worst performance of the season last week in a 10-37 road loss to West Virginia.  I had West Virginia in that game because I believed the Mountaineers to be way underrated with the stats they had put up this season.  And it proved to be the case as the Mountaineers dominated from start to finish.

But now Kansas State comes back as a 13-point home dog to Oklahoma State, a team that is overrated in my eyes.  The Cowboys are 4-1 this season and finally lost their first game last week to Texas.  Spencer Sanders is a turnover machine and the Cowboys lost that game due to committing four turnovers.  You just cannot trust Sanders to hold onto the football.

Kansas State had only committed two turnovers in their first five games.  But they uncharacteristically gave it away three times against West Virginia last week, which cost them.  Look for the Wildcats to get back to taking care of the football and winning in the areas that they can control, which will keep them in this game for four quarters.

Kansas State is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys will be playing just their second road game this season.  Their first was at Kansas, which doesn’t count.  This is their stiffest test of the season yet in my opinion even though they were small home favorites over WVU, Iowa State and Texas.  K-State has faced the gauntlet with road games at Oklahoma, TCU and WVU winning the first two of those road games outright as 28-point and 11.5-point dogs.

The Wildcats are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games off a blowout road loss by 21 points or more.  Kansas State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  The Wildcats are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.  Take Kansas State Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Liberty +15

What more does Liberty have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers? They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season under second-year head coach Hugh Freeze, who is making the most of his second chance here after getting ousted from Ole Miss.  This guy is just a great recruiter and has underrated talent again here, including Auburn QB transfer Malik Willis.

There has been nothing fluky about Liberty’s 5-0 start either as their stats have been off the charts.  They are scoring 40 points per game and averaging 494 yards per game on offense.  They are giving up just 24.2 points per game and 303 yards per game on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 15.8 points per game and outgaining them by nearly 200 yards per game.

Liberty already has a win over an ACC team in Syracuse.  They beat the Orange as 3-point road favorites by a final of 38-21 a few weeks back.  And now the Flames are in the perfect spot here with two weeks to prepare for Virginia Tech as they are coming off their bye week.  Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has to be a tired team as it will be playing for a 7th straight week here.

The fatigue is starting to show defensively for the Hokies.  They are giving up 30.5 points per game and 459 yards per game this season.  They were fortunate to win last week 42-35 over Louisville as they gave up 548 yards and were outgained by 82 yards, but they won the turnover battle 3-0.

Liberty is now 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games overall.  Hugh Freeze is 58-35 ATS as a head coach in his career, making him clearly one of the most underrated coaches in college football.  Justin Fuente is 1-8 ATS vs. good rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of Virginia Tech.

The Hokies give up a whopping 195 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry this season. Well, Liberty averages 257 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry.  The Flames will be able to run the ball on the Hokies and have a legitimate shot to win this game outright.  Getting more than two touchdowns with them is a gift given the spot with the Flames off their bye week.  Bet Liberty Saturday.

20* BYU/Boise State FS1 No-Brainer on BYU -3

The BYU Cougars are legitimately one of the best teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-0 start this season while also going a sensational 6-1 ATS in those seven games.  Oddsmakers haven’t been able to catch up with them, and I don’t think they have here either in their biggest game of the season against Boise State.  They should be more than 3-point favorites.

There has been nothing fluky about this start for BYU.  They are loaded on offense with a unit that is putting up 44.4 points and 527.7 yards per game.  They are also outstanding on defense, giving up just 13.4 points and 281.3 yards per game.  They are outscoring their opponents by 31.0 points per game and outgaining them by 246.4 yards per game.

I think the verdict is still out on Boise State.  They are usually the best team in the Mountain West year in and year out, but they have only played two games this season against very suspect competition.  And they only returned 11 starters this year.  They beat a bad Utah State team 42-13, which is the same Utah State team that went on to lose 38-7 to San Diego State last week.  And they beat Air Force 49-30 but still gave up 415 rushing yards in that game and were outgained by 25 yards.  That’s the same Air Force team that was upset 17-6 by San Jose State the game prior.

Zach Wilson is having a monster season at quarterback for BYU.  He has thrown for 2,152 yards with a 19-to-2 TD/INT ratio while competing 74.6% of his passes.  He is legitimately one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  And he wants revenge from 2 years ago when BYU lost 16-21 at Boise State.  Wilson drove the Cougars down from their own 17-yard line to the Boise State 2 before being sacked on the final play of the game.  You can bet he and his Cougars teammates have not forgotten the pain from that defeat.

Boise State doesn’t know who will start at quarterback for them on Friday yet.  Hank Bachmeier is supposed to be their starter, but he didn’t travel with the team against Air Force likely due to Covid-19.  Junior transfer Jack Sears played well in his place, but he would clearly be a downgrade from Bachmeier if he cannot go again.  Either way, I still think BYU rolls no matter who is under center for the Broncos.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Boise State) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game against a team that outgained their last two opponents by 125 or more yards are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet BYU Friday.

15* Wyoming/Colorado State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Wyoming -3.5

Wyoming’s loss to Nevada wasn’t a bad loss in the opener.  Nevada is one of the best teams in the Mountain West this year and oddsmakers don’t realize it.  So Wyoming was a 2.5-point favorite but only lost 34-37 and showed a lot of heart in coming back in that game.

Then last week the Cowboys’ true colors showed in their dominant 31-7 win over Hawaii as 3-point underdogs.  The Cowboys dominated that game, racking up 393 total yards while holding a very good Hawaii offense to just 233 total yards.  They are a power running team that can run on anyone as they had 281 rushing yards against the Warriors.  And they have a great defense year in and year out.

Colorado State is not a team you want to back early in the season.  They are a team in transition under first-year head coach Steve Addazio, who got ousted from Boston College last year.  They don’t have the players to run the schemes he wants to run.  They have been a spread passing team the last few years, but Addazio wants to bring over his power running game from Boston College.

The Rams got off to a rough start this season, losing 17-38 at Fresno State despite being a 2.5-point favorite.  That’s the same Fresno State team that lost 34-19 to Hawaii in their opener, and we just saw how Hawaii fared against Wyoming last week.  It’s not always A plus B equals C, but it’s definitely worth noting how those teams did against Hawaii to gauge how this game will play out.

Wyoming simply has Colorado State’s number.  The Cowboys are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rams with three of those wins coming by double-digits.  And Wyoming was never more than a 4.5-point favorite in any of the four and were an underdog in two of them.  Once again, the price is too cheap on the Cowboys here.

Wyoming is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  Wyoming is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games as a favorite.  Take Wyoming Thursday.

20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -2.5

Note: I locked in the Packers -2.5 with a personal bet myself at William Hill early Monday morning as well.  With the new info that has come out since with Jimmy G and Kittle both out, plus the Covid issues, I'd still take the Packers as a 20* up to -6.5.  Thanks.

I’ve been fading the 49ers for weeks and will continue to do so Thursday as they host the Green Bay Packers.  The 49ers simply have too many injuries to be able to beat a team the caliber of the Packers, just as they couldn’t beat a team that caliber of the Seahawks last week.  And I believe the Packers are as good or better than the Seahawks this season.

The 49ers are playing without Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, K’Waun Williams, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr.  Now Jimmy G and George Kittle have been added to the injury list and are both questionable for Thursday.  Deebo Samuel missed last game and likely won’t return on a short week with a hamstring injury.  Not to mention, Tevin Coleman, Kwon Alexander, Dante Pettis and Jacquiski Tartt all have the questionable label.  They are missing 20-plus contributors to injury.

The Packers have some injury issues of their own as RB Aaron Jones, T David Bakhtiari and CB Kevin King all missed last game with injuries.  I’m hopeful a few of them return, but either way the Packers’ injury situation is a lot prettier than that of the 49ers.  And that was a bad spot for the Packers last week and a great one for the Vikings, which is why we were on the Vikings +7 in that one.

The Vikings were coming off their bye week and got a healthy Dalvin Cook back from injury.  Cook torched the Packers for four touchdowns, but he was really Minnesota’s only offense as they finished with 324 total yards, a reasonable showing for the Packers.  Green Bay had 400 total yards in that game.

The Packers responded well from their first loss of the season against the Bucs with a 35-20 win at Houston.  And they will respond well from this loss to Minnesota.  Adding to the Packers’ motivation here is the fact that they lost both meetings with the 49ers last season, including in the playoffs.  They will want revenge here, similar to the Seahawks wanting revenge on the 49ers last week when we cashed them in as our 25* NFC West Game of the Year.  The Packers will have their revenge in a big way Thursday night.

Green Bay is 40-23 ATS in its last 63 games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Plays on underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a team that commits 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after two straight games where they forced one or fewer turnovers are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

15* MAC Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo -13

The Buffalo Bulls should be the best team in the MAC this year.  They went 8-5 last season and while they didn’t win the MAC, I would have had them favored over every other team in the conference.  They were 2nd in the MAC with a +138.0 yards per game differential and only got better as the season went on.

Now head coach Lance Leipold has his best team yet with 15 returning starters, making the Bulls the 16th-most experienced team in the country.  They also got in nine spring practices, which was the second-most in the MAC.  That’s a huge advantage heading into a shortened season like this.

The Bulls are loaded everywhere on offense with eight returning starters.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers in Jaret Patterson (1,799 yards, 19 TD, 5.8/carry last year) and Kevin Marks (1,035, 8 TD, 4.6/carry).  Each of their top three receivers are back as are their top two quarterbacks.  Defensively they return seven starters from a unit that gave up just 21.3 points per game last year and know how to get after opposing quarterbacks with 43 sacks last year.

Northern Illinois is a mess.  Thomas Hammock had to take over late in the process last year.  The Huskies went just 5-7 with four losses by 18 points or more.  And now he returns just 10 starters and loses a ton of players to the transfer portal.  Now this is going to be a very young team this year with five projected freshmen starters and five sophomores projected to start.  It’s going to get worse before it gets better for the Huskies.

The Bulls are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 conference games.  Buffalo is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Huskies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs.  Those extra spring practices plus all the experience returning will benefit the Bulls in a big way early in the 2020 season.  Take Buffalo Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Kent State -4.5

Sean Lewis has Kent State on the rise.  He led them to their first bowl games since 2012 in just his second season on the job last year.  The won their final four games of the season all in upset fashion over Buffalo, Ball State, Eastern Michigan and then Utah State in the bowl.

Now the Golden Flashes have 13 returning starters and should pick up right where they left off last year.  They have the best QB in the MAC in senior Dustin Crum, who completed 69.2% of his passes for 2,625 yards with a ridiculous 20-to-2 TD/INT ratio last year.  Crum also rushed for 707 yards and 6 scores on the ground.  Four starters are back on the offensive line along with leading receiver Isaiah McKoy.  They do return just six starters on defense, but they get each of their top three tacklers back.

Chris Creighton deserves some credit for getting a program like Eastern Michigan to a bowl game in three of the last four seasons.  But he has his hands full with this team in 2020.  The Eagles only return 11 starters and not much talent.  They lose QB Mike Glass, leading rusher Shaq Vann and leading receiver Arthur Jackson.  They lose three of their top four tacklers on defense including two guys who had 108 and 128 tackles.  This is a young team with four freshmen projected to start.

The Golden Flashes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They come into 2020 with a ton of momentum off their impressive finish last year.  Bet Kent State Wednesday.

20* Bucs/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 47

The New York Giants have been an UNDER machine this season.  They have a terrible offense and an underrated defense.  The UNDER is 5-2 in their seven games this year and six of the seven have seen 45 or fewer combined points.  The only exception was their game against the Dallas Cowboys, who have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

Speaking of underrated defenses, the Tampa Bay Bucs give up just 20.3 points and 291.3 yards per game.  Their offense gets all their credit, but it is their defense being the reason that they are so good.  In fact, Football Outsiders has the Bucs ranked as the top defense in the entire NFL this season.

The Giants have given up 22 or fewer points in four of their seven games this season.  I think they can limit what the Bucs do offensively similar to when the Bears held the Bucs to just 19 points a few weeks back.  The Bucs have scored a ton of points the last two weeks since against the Packers and Raiders, but many of those points were created by their defense, and that’s unlikely to continue happening.

The Giants have the 30th-ranked offense according to Football Outsiders.  They average just 17.4 points and 282.4 yards per game this season.  Daniel Jones really misses his best weapon in Saquon Barkley.  And now he’s left with one of the worst set of skill players in the NFL.  I don’t expect the Giants to do much offensively to contribute to the total points scored in this game.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 42.5 to 49 (Tampa Bay) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 41-14 (74.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks -3

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the San Francisco 49ers this week.  They are coming off two upset wins as underdogs over the Rams and Patriots.  It’s clear the Patriots are broken and that win doesn’t mean as much as the 33-6 final score would indicate.  Now the 49ers have to face a real team in the Seattle Seahawks.

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Seahawks after they blew a 27-14 lead and lost to the Cardinals in overtime last week.  Russell Wilson had his worst game of the season with three interceptions.  The Seahawks hadn’t turned the ball over more than once prior to that game.  Russell is in a bounce-back spot and wants revenge on the 49ers after they took the NFC West title from them in Week 17 last year.

The Seahawks have been able to make up for a suspect defense with an offense that is one of the best in the NFL in putting up 33.8 points per game this season.  And there’s a good chance the Seahawks get back their leader on defense in safety Jamal Adams this week.

The 49ers’ injury report just got even worse after last week.  They lost RB Jeff Wilson Jr. to an ankle injury late, and he had three touchdowns against the Patriots.  They don’t really have any good healthy running backs left after also losing Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert to season-ending injury.  The 49ers now have at least 19 contributors that are out due to injury this season.

New starter Jerick McKinnon has been ineffective, which is why everyone else is starting ahead of him.  And they have also been using Deebo Samuel a lot in the running game, but now he is out with a hamstring injury.  Samuel was becoming their best playmaker the last few weeks, so it’s a big loss.  Jimmy Ward, Jaquiski Tartt and Kwon Alexander are all questionable to play this week and they are already missing a handful of starters on D.

The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS after allowing more than 350 passing yards in their previous game over the last two seasons.  Seattle is 8-1 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three years, coming back to win by 8.8 yards per game in this spot.  The Seahawks are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills -3

I made my worst pick of the season last week on the Patriots over the 49ers as a 25*.  I apologize to my clients for that one.  I thought the Patriots were affected by only having one padded practice in the two weeks prior leading up to their losses to the Chiefs and Broncos.  And they had a full week of practice last week to improve.

It didn’t matter.  The Patriots are clearly broken after losing 6-33 at home to the 49ers for their third consecutive loss.  That followed up a 12-18 home loss to the Denver Broncos as 7-point favorites.  And before that they lost 10-26 on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs.

So, the Patriots have scored an average of 9.3 points per game in their last three games.  Their offense is way broken.  Cam Newton has two touchdown passes against seven interceptions on the season and the Panthers are glad they moved on from him.  He is in jeopardy of losing his starting job.  It doesn’t matter who they go with because the backups haven’t been any better.  Their quarterbacks have combined for three touchdowns against 11 interceptions on the season.

The usually steady Patriots defense is missing too many players to be effective last year.  A banged-up 49ers offense just put up 33 points and 467 total yards on them last week.  That came a week after the Broncos scored on their first six possessions of the game, albeit all field goals but they still had no problem moving the football on the Patriots.

The Bills are the real deal this season.  Their only two losses came against two of the best teams in the NFL in the Titans and Chiefs, who are a combined 11-2 this season.  They have been frustrated for years by the Patriots, and now it’s finally their turn to take over this division.  They will be highly motivated to do just that Sunday.

Buffalo’s 18-10 win at the New York Jets last week was very misleading.  They somehow had to settle for eight field goal attempts in that game, and only made six of them.  But they outgained the Jets 422 to 190 for the game, so it was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  And their defense completely shut down the Jets after giving up 10 early points.

Buffalo boasts one of the best offenses in the NFL in scoring 24.9 points and averaging 376.7 yards per game.  Jose Allen is having an MVP-caliber season thus far.  He is completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,018 yard with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  He has also rushed for 204 yards and three scores as one of the best dual-threats in the game, something the Patriots will struggle with.

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Bills off three straight ATS losses.  They should be closer to 7-point favorites in this game.  The Bills are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games off three or more consecutive ATS losses.  New England is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Patriots are 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two years.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Lions +3

The Detroit Lions have some momentum right now after going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall to live up to their potential.  All three wins came on the road over the Cardinals, Jaguars and Falcons.  And their last-second win over the Falcons last week keeps their momentum going.  Their only defeat came by 6 against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Saints.

Now the Lions host the Colts, who are getting too much respect from oddsmakers as 3-point road favorites here.  The Colts are 4-2 but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, while the Lions have played one of the toughest.  The Lions have faced four teams with winning records, while the Colts have only faced two in the Bears and Browns, who are both overrated.

Philip Rivers looks like a shell of his former self.  He has a 7-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  Matthew Stafford is clearly the better quarterback with the better weapons in this matchup.  He has a 10-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season and has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL.  And he has been even better since getting his favorite target in Kenny Golloday back from injury after missing the first two games, both losses by the Lions.

The Lions have more talent on defense than they get credit for too, and that unit has played up to their potential the last two weeks in limiting the Jaguars to 16 points and the Lions to 22 points.  And I think they’ll continue to have success against a Colts offense that hasn’t been great despite feasting on one of the easiest schedules of opposing defenses in the NFL.  Football outsiders has them ranked as the 22nd-best offense in the NFL.  Football outsiders also identifies the Colts have playing the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL thus far, while the Lions have played the 14th-toughest schedule.

Frank Reich is 2-9 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game as the coach of the Colts.  I believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup and Detroit has a great chance to win this game outright.  Take the Lions Sunday.

15* Vikings/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Minnesota Vikings (1-5) and sell high on the Green Bay Packers (5-1).  And an easy way to see that the Vikings are undervalued while the Packers are overvalued is to compare this line to the line from Week 1.  The Vikings were actually favored over the Packers in Week 1, and now they are 7-point dogs, which has been at least an 8-point adjustment.  That’s too much.

The Vikings are better than their 1-5 record would indicate.  They have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL and have two 1-point losses to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Seahawks and Titans.  And after giving away that game to the Seahawks, they laid an egg in last game against the Falcons with a 23-40 home loss.

The Vikings have since had a bye week to recover from that loss to the Falcons.  And you know Mike Zimmer will have this team improving greatly with two weeks to prepare for the Packers.  You also know that the Vikings will be highly motivated to face a division rival and first place team in the Packers.  This is their chance to really turn their season around, and they will make the most of it.  Getting 7 points with the Vikings is too much.

The bye week has also allowed star RB Dalvin Cook to return from an injury that kept him out against the Falcons.  This offense really goes as Cook goes.  He has rushed for 489 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.3 yards per carry in five games.  He also has 12 receptions for 64 yards and needs involved more in the passing game.  Justin Jefferson (28 receptions, 537 yards, 3 TD) and Adam Thielen (32, 415, 7 TD) are great weapons for Cousins outside.

While the Vikings are getting healthier on both sides of the ball with their bye week, the Packers have a lot of injuries with guys listed as questionable.  T David Bakhtiari missed last week with a chest injury and is questionable.  S Darnell Savage, RB Aaron Jones, DL Tyler Lancaster and CB Kevin King are all questionable as well.  Jones would be a huge loss as he has 550 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns this year.

Minnesota is 54-31 ATS in its last 85 games off two or more consecutive losses.  Zimmer is a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more as the coach of Minnesota.  This 100% never lost system shows a lot about Zimmer and his ability to get the most out of his teams in this situation.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -3

No question the Pittsburgh Steelers are a legit 6-0 and one of the best teams in the NFL.  But it’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Steelers this week.  They are 5-1 ATS this season and are starting to become a public team.  And you can tell there’s line value with the Ravens this week when you consider this line was Ravens -6 last week and now it’s -3 to -3.5 this week.

The only thing that happened to move that line was the Steelers going on the road and beating the Titans 27-24 last week.  Well, I had the Steelers as a free pick in that game because I stated that the Titans were one of the most fraudulent 5-0 teams in the history of the NFL.  And that came to fruition, even though the Steelers still nearly found a way to lose that game.

Now the Steelers have to go on the road for a second straight week and face a rested, hungry Ravens team coming off their bye week.  The Ravens have been dominant this season at 5-1 with their only loss coming to the Kansas City Chiefs.  They five wins have come by an average of 17.8 points per game.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites here over the Steelers given the situation.

Yes, the Steelers have been great against the run this year, but they haven’t had to face a mobile QB like the one they will be up against Sunday in Lamar Jackson.  All Jackson has done is lead a Ravens offense that is averaging a whopping 29.8 points per game.  And this is definitely an improved Baltimore defense, one that gives up only 17.3 points and 339.8 yards per game.

You definitely want to be backing John Harbaugh off a bye week.  He is 9-2 ATS off a bye as the coach of the Ravens.  Mike Tomlin is 6-16 ATS off a win by 6 points or less as the coach of the Steelers.  The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC opponents, including 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC North foes.  The Steelres are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Plays on any team (Baltimore) - off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +15

It looks like the betting public is back on the Oklahoma bandwagon after back-to-back wins and covers over Texas in overtime and TCU 33-14.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Sooners now laying more than two touchdowns on the road to the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Texas Tech has played very well at home in Big 12 play this year.  The Red Raiders held a 15-point lead in the final minutes against Texas but found a way to lost 56-63 in overtime.  But they redeemed themselves last week beating an underrated West Virginia team 34-27 as 2.5-point home dogs.  And that gives them the confidence to hang with Oklahoma here.

Texas Tech can match Oklahoma score for score.  You just can’t trust this Oklahoma team to lay these kinds of numbers with how terrible their defense is.  They are giving up 33.5 points per game in conference play and even allowed 38 points to Kansas State and 37 to Iowa State.

Texas Tech wants revenge after eight straight losses to the Sooners in this series.  And the last three in Lubbock have been very tight with the Sooners winning by 5, 7 and 12 points.  I think we see more of the same here with this game decided by 14 points or fewer.

Oklahoma is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games vs. teams that allow 8 or more passing yards per attempt.  Lincoln Riley is 1-8 ATS vs. teams that allow a 62% completion percentage or worse as the coach of the Sooners.  Oklahoma is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Red Raiders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.  Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.

25* Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia State +3

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 5-0 this season and ranked No. 20 in the country.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on this unbeaten team as they lose their first game of the season against a very underrated Georgia State squad Saturday.

Coastal Carolina lost starting QB Grant McCall to an injury last week and were still able to beat Georgia Southern.  McCall is doubtful this week, and I don’t give them much of a chance to beat Georgia State without him.  McCall has an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season and has rushed for 184 yards and three scores.  It’s a huge loss to say the least even though it didn’t matter last week because Georgia Southern wasn’t preparing for backup Fred Payton.  Now with a week of game film on Payton, Georgia State will be prepared.

Georgia State is very close to being 4-0 this season.  They lost to Louisiana-Lafayette in overtime 31-34.  They crushed East Carolina 49-29 as a 2-point dog.  They lost to Arkansas State 52-59 on the road in a game they deserved to win.  And they went on the road and upset Troy 36-34 as 1.5-point dogs.  The markets have mis-priced this team all season as they have been a dog in all four games against a brutal schedule.

Coastal Carolina is a team that prefers to run the football in averaging 44 rushing attempts for 188 yards per game and 4.3 per carry this season.  Well, Georgia State has been the best team in the Sun Belt against the run, giving up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry.

I just like Georgia State head coach Shawn Elliott who has gotten this team to a bowl game in two of his three seasons on the job.  And this is his best team yet with 16 returning starters.  The offense has great balance with 237 rushing yards per game and 229 passing yards per game.  New starting QB Cornelius Brown is a great dual-threat with 917 passing yards and a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio to go with 186 rushing yards and four scores.

Plays on home teams (Georgia State) - a great rushing team averaging at least 4.9 yards per rush against a good rushing team averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 yards, after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +32

Note: I still like Boston College as a 20* play at the new opening line of +24 since the news that Trevor Lawrence has been announced out with Covid-19.  It’s a 20* all the way down to +21.

Boston College just continues to be a money maker every year.  They are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS this season.  They are coming off a 21-point win over Georgia Tech last week.  Their only two losses this season came to North Carolina and Virginia Tech, which are two of the best teams in the ACC.

They only lost 22-26 to North Carolina and were only outgained by 48 yards, which was one of their most impressive performances of the season.  And their loss to Virginia Tech was very misleading as they were only outgained by 26 yards in that contest, but they committed five turnovers which led to the blowout.  They can hang with Clemson here.

Clemson only beat a terrible Syracuse team by 26 last week as a 47-point favorite.  And that was even with winning the turnover battle 4-1 for the game.  Now this is a terrible spot for Clemson.  They have a huge game on deck next week at Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are unbeaten and the No. 4 ranked team in the country.  

They will clearly be looking ahead to that game.  They won’t be looking to play their starters late in this one if it gets out of hand, so the back door will always be open if we need it.  But I fully expect Boston College to be covering wire-to-wire and giving Clemson a run for its money.  The Tigers’ main goal will be making sure everyone is healthy heading into the Notre Dame game.  And obviously, not having the best player in the country in Lawrence is a huge downgrade and worth more than the 7-8 points the oddsmakers have adjusted for his loss.

The Eagles are a sensational 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 ACC games.  Boston College is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games as a road underdog.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -3.5

This is the classic unranked team favored over the ranked team situation.  Since 2017, unranked teams favored by 4 points or fewer against ranked teams have gone 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS.  I don’t play every one of these situations, but this one makes sense for the following reasons.

Kansas State is 4-1 despite getting outgained in four of their five games this season.  And the only team they outgained was Kansas, and that was only by 61 yards last week in a very misleading final score.  The Wildcats are getting outgained by 56.2 yards per game on the season.

Unlike Kansas State, West Virginia is much better than its 3-2 record would indicate.  The Mountaineers have outgained all five of their opponents this season.  They are outgunning teams by nearly 200 yards per game.  They are averaging 460.8 yards per game on offense and giving up just 261.8 yards per game on defense.  They are probably the single-most underrated team in the Big 12 this season.

Kansas State was able to get past TCU and Kansas without starting QB Skyler Thompson. But this is the game where his loss finally shows up.  New starter Will Howard has been able to manage the game without him, but he’s going to have to step up and make more plays if the Wildcats are to win this week.  And I just don’t think he has it in him.  He completed just 42.1% of his passes for 117 yards with no touchdowns and an interception against TCU.

West Virginia is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.  The Mountaineers win and win big here to hand the Wildcats their first conference loss of the season.  Take West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Memphis/Cincinnati OVER 55

The oddsmakers have set this total too low for Saturday between Memphis and Cincinnati in a huge AAC showdown.  The weather looks like perfect scoring conditions with a temperature in the 50s, sunny and only 5-10 MPH winds.  This game should sail OVER the total Saturday.

Memphis is a dead nuts OVER team.  They score 38.8 points per game and put up 569.8 yards per game this season.  They give up 33.0 points per game and 567.8 yards per game on the year.  Their style will lead Cincinnati to have to try and get in a shootout with them.

The Bearcats clearly have a great defense and that showed last week in their 42-13 win at SMU.  But that was an SMU team that just lost their top receiver to injury.  Memphis has an offense that is just loaded with talent everywhere and will find a way to hang a big number on this Cincinnati defense.  And the Bearcats can keep pace as they are averaging 37.3 points per game on the season.

The OVER is 12-3 in Tigers last 15 games as an underdog.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Hawaii/Wyoming FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 60

The Wyoming Cowboys have been a dead nuts UNDER team under 7th-year head coach Craig Bohl.  They have an elite defense and a terrible offense seemingly year in and year out.  And I believe that to be the case again in 2020.

Indeed, Wyoming has scored just 25.4 PPG, 20.7 PPG and 23.5 PPG the last three years, respectively.  But the Cowboys have only allowed 17.8 PPG, 22.0 PPG and 17.5 PPG the last three years, respectively, as well.

The 34-37 loss to Nevada in the opener has this total inflated tonight.  But Nevada has one of the best offenses in the Mountain West this year under Jay Norvell with 10 starters back on that side of the ball.  They lit up this Wyoming defense, which wasn’t prepared for them.  And Wyoming had to throw the ball around the yard to try and play catch up, which isn’t their style.

Look for Wyoming to get back to their preferred game plan, which is to run the football and play elite defense.  The last two years Wyoming averaged 215 rushing yards per game and only 136 passing in 2019 and 199 rushing and 131 passing in 2018.  They clearly have QB problems again this year after starter Sean Chambers went out with a leg injury early against Nevada.  Backup Levi Williams went just 16-of-31 passing in his absence and looked very inaccurate.

Hawaii scored 34 points on a bad Fresno State defense in the opener, but their defense came to play in limiting the Bulldogs to just 19 points.  The offense is learning a new system under first-year head coach Todd Graham and the defense may have to carry the way early.

The last two matchups in this series went way UNDER the total.  They combined for just 30 points in a 17-13 home victory for Hawaii in 2018.  And the year prior they were tied 21-21 at the end of regulation before Wyoming won 28-21 in overtime.

Wyoming is 17-3 UNDER in its last 20 home games after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.  Again, this number is inflated after their 71-point outburst against Nevada last week.  It's also going to be cold in Laramie Friday night with 15-25 MPH winds.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers -2.5

The Carolina Panthers are much better than they are getting credit for this season.  Matt Rhule is doing a tremendous job of getting the most out of this team, and Teddy Bridgewater continues to be a covering machine dating back to his time with the Vikings and Saints.  It was a great fit for the Panthers getting Bridewater, and he has had them competitive in every game they’ve played.

The Panthers are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat the Chargers and Falcons on the road while also topping the Cardinals at home.  They only lost by a touchdown to the Bears at home and had a chance to force OT at the end.  And last week they were in a tough spot facing a Saints team off a bye on the road, yet nearly knocked them off in a 24-27 loss as 7-point dogs.

And there’s good news on the horizon for the Panthers.  Christian McCaffrey returned to practice Monday and there’s a very real possibility he’ll play Thursday.  Either way, they have still been winning without him and will continue to do so if he doesn’t play.  Getting him back would just be an added bonus.  And I like backing home teams on these short weeks when possible, and I think there’s a ton of value getting the Panthers at -2.5 here under a field goal.

It’s going to be tough for the Falcons to get back up off the mat after the way they lost to the Lions Sunday.  All Todd Gurley had to do was not score at the end and they could have kicked the game-winning field goal.  Instead, they left just enough time for Matthew Stafford and Lions to drive down the field and score the game-winning touchdown on the final play of the game.  I just don’t see how they can possibly bounce back from that gut-wrenching loss at the buzzer, especially not a 1-6 team like the Falcons with zero playoff aspirations.

The Panthers already beat the Falcons 23-16 in their first meeting this season in Atlanta.  They racked up 437 total yards on the Falcons and held them to 369.  They led 20-7 at half and really should have won by more.  Bridewater went 27-of-36 passing for 313 yards and two touchdowns, while Mike Davis rushed for 89 yards on 16 carries.  Both should have great games against this awful Atlanta defense that is giving up 29.6 points and 425.9 yards per game this season.

It’s also worth noting that this will be just the 2nd outdoor game of the season for the Falcons, who are built to play in a dome.  In their first, they lost 16-30 at Green Bay as their offense just couldn’t get anything going.  Their speed just doesn’t play nearly as well on a grass field like the one Carolina has.  The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games on grass.  Bet the Panthers Thursday.

20* South Alabama/Georgia Southern ESPN No-Brainer on South Alabama +4

I’ve been a lot more impressed with South Alabama than Georgia Southern this season despite both teams having identical 3-2 records.  The Jaguars have played the much tougher schedule and have exceeded expectations in four of their five games by going 4-1 ATS.

Georgia Southern is 3-2, but its three wins have come against Campbell, LA Monroe and UMass which are three of the worst teams they could have possibly faced.  And they only beat Campbell by a single point 27-26 as 34.5-point favorites.  They also only beat LA Monroe 35-30 as 19.5-point favorites.

That gives them a common opponent.  Both have faced Louisiana-Monroe this season.  South Alabama crushed LA-Monroe 38-14 while Georgia Southern only beat them by 5.  The wrong team is favored in this Sun Belt showdown tonight.

Plays against favorite of 3.5 to 10 points (GA Southern) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS since 1992.

The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.  South Alabama is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing more than 280 passing yards last game.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

25* MLB Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rays/Dodgers OVER 8

The OVER is 4-1 in this series.  The first four games went OVER the total with combined scores of 11, 10, 8 and 15 runs.  Game 4 went under, but there were five runs scored in the first three innings and only one run after.  Both teams just didn’t capitalize on their many scoring opportunities for the first time in this series.

This pitching matchup in Game 6 lends itself to an OVER.  The Dodgers will be going with Tony Gonsolin, who is 0-2 with a 9.54 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in two postseason starts this season.  He only lasted 1 1/3 innings in Game 2, a 4-6 loss to the Rays that exposed the Dodgers’ bullpen.  And this will be another bullpen game for the Dodgers, which is their biggest weakness.

Blake Snell is having a decent postseason, but the OVER is 3-1 in his last four starts.  Snell just doesn’t go deep into games and that also exposes Tampa Bay’s bullpen.  He is averaging just 4.6 innings per start on the season and 4.9 innings per start in the postseason.  The OVER is 11-5 in Snell’s 16 starts in 2020.  Gonsolin averages just 4.7 innings per start this season.

Tampa Bay is 92-65 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 14-3-1 in Rays last 18 games vs. NL West opponents.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.  The OVER is 6-1 in Dodgers last seven vs. AL East opponents.  Bet the OVER in Game 6 Tuesday.