|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-05-18||Raptors +5 v. Cavs||Top||103-105||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
20* Raptors/Cavs ABC No-Brainer on Toronto +5
The Toronto Raptors aren’t done yet. Most have written them off after losing the first two games of this series at home. But I strongly believe they still have some fight left in them for Game 3 to try and redeem themselves.
They let the Cavs off the hook in Game 1 by going 0-for-12 down the stretch. They never trailed one time in regulation and then lost in overtime. Then Kevin Love had his best game of the playoffs in Game 2, which came out of nowhere because he had been playing terrible. The Cavs shot 59.5% as a team in Game 2, which isn’t going to happen again.
Look for the Raptors to show some pride here in Game 3. They are a much better team than they’ve shown up to this point, and I still think they are better than the Cavs. They have only forced eight turnovers this entire series, and that’s unacceptable. Their defensive effort will be the best it has been in any game this series in Game 3 to try and make up for it.
Toronto is 11-2 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. Cleveland is 11-29 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Cavaliers are 16-38-1 ATS in their last 55 home games overall. Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Raptors Saturday.
My 2018 Kentucky Derby Picks:
Win: No. 11 Bolt d'Oro (8/1)
Price, performance and pedigree lead me to believe that Bolt d'Oro will be your 2018 Kentucky Derby winner. He has four wins in six starts, including a pair of Grade 1 victories. He placed a game second to Derby favorite Justify in the Santa Anita Derby.
Bolt d'Oro's sire, Medaglia d'Oro, delivered seven Grade 1 winners in 2017. His broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes in 1992. He has one of the top Beyer Speed Figures (103) in the field.
Bolt d'Oro finished the final three-eighths of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby in less than 38 seconds, showing that he has plenty left in the tank for the 1 1/4 mile Derby. If he gets in a duel with Justify again, I like his chances down the stretch.
Place: No. 6 Good Magic (12/1)
Good Magic was a champion 2-year old that has steadily improved with each start. I expect him to take another step forward in the Derby Saturday. After a disappointing seasonal debut, he came back with an impressive win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.
Good Magic has the perfect running style for the Derby. He is a stalker that likes to sit just off the pace, and that is the style that usually wins this race. He'll be able to follow Justify out of the 7th post and stalk him.
Underrated trainer Chad Brown has been oozing with confidence over this horse. Brown won the Preakness with Cloud Computing last year, and Practical Joke came in a solid fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Brown is a Top 5 trainer nationally, has won 10 Breeders' Cup races, and an Eclipse award as top trainer.
The son of Curlin, Good Magic has a great pedigree. Curlin finished a disappointing 3rd in the Derby, but went on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup to become one of the all-time greats. He's already sired a Belmont and Preakness winner, and Exaggerator was second in the Derby. Good Magic's damsire, Hard Spun, finished one spot ahead of Curlin in the Derby and two spots behind him in the Preakness. The bloodline couldn't be much better for this horse.
Show: No. 7 Justify (3/1)
History and inexperience are the only reasons I am not picking Justify to win. No horse that failed to race as a 2-year old has won the Kentucky Derby since Apollo in 1882. That's an 0-for-61 stretch, and something that cannot be overlooked.
But what also can't be overlooked is how Justify has won all three of his races as a 3-year-old in impressive fashion. He has won the three by a combined 19 lengths. He finished strong in the Santa Anita Derby to hold off favorite Bolt d'Oro, which I believe to be the best horse in the field.
Another reason to like Justify's chances is the post draw. He drew the No. 7 post, and based on the racing styles of the horses closest to him, he's going to have an easy path to where he wants to get to. Justify is a stalker that prefers to be toward the front and then make his move around the final turn. He'll be able to move in right behind likely pacesetters Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway, who start from the 3rd and 4th posts, respectively.
Exacta Pick: 6, 7, 11 Exacta Box
Trifecta Pick:5, 6, 7, 11 Trifecta Box
Note: I'm throwing in No. 5 Audible in my Trifecta Box as I believe he's the 4th-best horse in the field and the most likely to hit the board if one of my top three picks falter. Feel free to use these four horses in a Superfecta Box as well.
|05-04-18||Rockets -4.5 v. Jazz||Top||113-92||Win||100||12 h 58 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Jazz ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -4.5
After a terrible performance in Game 2 with an upset loss to the Jazz as 10.5-point home favorites, I fully expect the Houston Rockets to come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 3. Look for them to bury the Jazz tonight.
The Rockets shot 40% from the field and 27% from 3-point range in Game 2. That’s not going to happen again. Meanwhile, the Jazz shot 51.8% from the field and 46.9% (15-of-32) from 3-point range in Game 2. That’s also unlikely to happen again.
It was a rare win for the Jazz in this series. The Rockets are now 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their six meetings with the Jazz this season. All five wins came by 11 points or more as well.
Houston is 14-3 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Rockets Friday.
|05-04-18||Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 9||5-1||Loss||-102||9 h 5 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Rangers OVER 9
The Rangers and Red Sox combined for 16 runs yesterday in an 11-5 home victory for Texas. I fully expect another slugfest tonight with Rick Porcello and Bartolo Colon getting lit up by two hot lineups. The Red Sox are scoring 5.6 runs per game this season, while the Rangers have scored 5 or more runs in five of their last seven games overall.
Porcello is off to a solid start this season, but now he’s up against a lineup that has given him fits throughout his career. Indeed, Porcello is 6-4 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in 12 career starts against Texas.
Bartolo Colon is somehow still in the big leagues. He has gotten by this season through his first four starts, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets lit up. And I predict that will be tonight by this potent Boston lineup.
Boston is 8-0 OVER when revenging a blowout road loss vs. opponent of 6 runs or more over the last two seasons. Colon is 10-2 OVER when working on 5 or 6 days’ rest over the last two seasons. Texas is 40-17 OVER in its last 57 games after a combined score of 12 runs or more in four straight games. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Rangers last seven games overall. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|05-03-18||Red Sox -138 v. Rangers||5-11||Loss||-138||8 h 3 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -138
The Boston Red Sox are off to one of their best starts in franchise history at 22-8. They are blistering the ball offensively with 5.7 runs per game. Now they’ll be up against the 12-20 Texas Rangers, who are scoring just 3.9 runs per game this season.
David Price is off to a solid start this season at 2-3 with a 3.78 ERA in six starts, including 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA in three road starts. Price has allowed just 3 earned runs in 14 innings while striking out 19 in his last two starts against the Rangers.
Mike Minor is 2-1 with a 4.33 ERA in five starts this season for the Rangers. But he’s 1-0 with a 5.51 ERA in his last three starts. He was rocked by both Toronto and Houston in recent starts, and now he’s up against arguably the best lineup he’s faced yet in Boston.
The Rangers’ bullpen is gassed as well. Texas is 3-16 off a two-game stretch where the bullpen threw 9 innings or more over the last two seasons. The Red Sox are 38-13 in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Rangers are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a left-handed starter. Texas is 3-13 in its last 16 during Game 1 of a series. The Rangers are 6-20 in their last 26 home games. Take the Red Sox Thursday.
|05-03-18||Cavs v. Raptors -6.5||Top||128-110||Loss||-102||6 h 13 m||Show|
25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors -6.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers became just the 2nd team in the last 20 years to win a playoff game while not leading once during regulation. It was a complete fluke. The Raptors feel they let them off the hook, and they’ll come back highly motivated in Game 2 to square this series.
I think the Cavaliers feel they’re just happy for a split in Toronto and won’t be giving the kind of effort they did in Game 1. They weren’t as fatigued as I expected them to be, but they will start to feel it in the coming games after having to go 7 games to defeat the Pacers.
It was a rare home loss for the Raptors, who are 37-8 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 10.1 points per game. Cleveland is just 6-16 ATS off a road win this season. The Cavs are also 15-29 ATS after playing a road game this year.
Plays on any team (Toronto) - revenging a loss as a favorite against opponent that’s off a road win by 3 points or less are 52-24 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Raptors in Game 2 Thursday.
|05-02-18||Jazz +11 v. Rockets||Top||116-108||Win||100||8 h 37 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Utah +11
The Utah Jazz know that if they are going to have any chance in this series, they are going to have to steal one in Houston. The Rockets have owned them this season, and I think they say enough is enough this game.
They lost by 14 in Game 1, but there’s reason to believe they can improve on that significantly. The Jazz shot just 31.8% from 3-point range and 59.1% from the free throw line while committing 18 turnovers. They should be able to improve on all three of those numbers, which will help them stay within 11 here.
The Rockets shot lights out in Game 1 from 3-point range. They made 17-of-32 (53.1%) of their attempts, which was the difference. They also shot 79.2% from the free throw line. It’s hard to envision the Rockets shooting that well from distance again in Game 2.
Mike D’Antoni is 1-10 ATS off three consecutive covers as a favorite as the coach of Houston. The Rockets are only winning by 2.0 points per game on average this spot. Houston is 1-9 ATS in home games off three consecutive covers as a favorite over the last two seasons. Bet the Jazz in Game 2 Wednesday.
|05-02-18||Phillies -1.5 v. Marlins||6-0||Win||110||6 h 23 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+110)
The Philadelphia Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday. They have lost four straight coming in with their last win coming behind Aaron Nola in a 7-3 victory over Atlanta. Well, their ace gets the ball again tonight.
Nola has been lights out since the second half of last season. Nola is 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.965 WHIP in six starts this season. He gave up just one earned run in 7 innings while striking out 11 in his last start against Miami, an 8-1 Phillies’ victory.
Jose Urena is still in search of his first win of the season for the Marlins. He is 0-4 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in six starts this season. The Marlins have gone 0-6 in those six starts. Urena is 1-2 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in five career starts against Philadelphia.
The Phillies are 8-1 in their last nine games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Philadelphia is 4-0 in its last four games after losing the first two games of a series. The Marlins are 0-8 in Urena’s last eight starts. Miami is 1-10 in Urena’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Phillies on the Run Line Wednesday.
|05-01-18||Pelicans +11 v. Warriors||116-121||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
15* Pelicans/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +11
The New Orleans Pelicans got embarrassed in Game 1 in a 101-123 loss at Golden State. The Warriors shot 48.4% for the game and 40.7% from the 3-point line, while the Pelicans shot just 43.7% for the game and 32% from 3-point range.
Look for the Pelicans to come back highly motivated for a win in Game 2. They know they are going to have to steal one in Golden State if they want to make this a series. And this would be the time to do it with Stephen Curry returning for the Warriors. They are getting too much respect for his return, but he won’t be sharp as he hasn’t played since late March.
The Pelicans are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. It was probably a good thing that they took a humbling defeat in Game 1 to refocus, because they were probably getting overconfident after their 9-game winning streak and sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round.
The Warriors are 8-25 in their last 33 games after attempting 20 or more free throws than their opponent. The Warriors shot 32 while the Pelicans shot just 11 in Game 1. There won’t be that big of a gap in Game 2. Golden State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. Take the Pelicans in Game 2 Tuesday.
|05-01-18||White Sox v. Cardinals -1.5||2-3||Loss||-110||7 h 17 m||Show|
15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-110)
The St. Louis Cardinals come into this series with the Chicago White Sox highly motivated for a victory. They were just swept in a 3-game set in Pittsburgh over the weekend. Now they get to host the 8-18 Chicago White Sox to get back on track.
Michael Wacha has pitched well this season, going 4-1 with a 3.62 ERA in five starts, including 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA in three home starts. Wacha won his only career start against the White Sox back in 2015.
James Shields somehow manages to keep a spot in Chicago’s rotation despite being awful. Shields is 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in five starts this season. He is also 0-1 with an 8.74 ERA and 2.383 WHIP in two career starts against St. Louis.
The White Sox are 25-54 in their last 79 road games. Chicago is 2-11 in its last 13 interleague road games. The White Sox are 0-5 in Shields’ last five starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 6-0 in Wacha’s last six starts vs. AL Central opponents. St. Louis is 38-14 in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday.
|05-01-18||Cavs v. Raptors -6.5||Top||113-112||Loss||-108||7 h 46 m||Show|
20* Cavs/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Toronto -6.5
Cleveland needed a super-human performance from Lebron James just to get by the Indiana Pacers in seven games. He averaged over 45 points per game in their four wins, yet they won those games by just 3, 4, 3 and 4 points. It’s a sign of things to come for the Cavaliers in this series.
Toronto is the most complete team in the Eastern Conference, and that showed in the regular season. They go 10-plus deep and have been much better this season with a change in philosophy. They are looking to push the tempo more and shoot more 3-pointers. They average 111.5 points per game this season.
The Raptors are 37-7 at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per game on their home floor. It will be a raucous atmosphere tonight in Toronto. The Cavs are tired as they just had to play on Sunday and only get one day to get ready for Toronto. Lebron admitted he was extremely tired in his press conference after the game Sunday. The Raptors, who have had three days off in between games, will be the fresher, more motivated team in Game 1.
Plays against underdogs (Cleveland) - as the No. 4 seed in the playoffs, in the 1st game of a playoff series are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996. The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Raptors are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games. The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Raptors in Game 1 Tuesday.
|04-30-18||76ers -3.5 v. Celtics||Top||101-117||Loss||-115||7 h 12 m||Show|
20* 76ers/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are rested and ready to go following an impressive 4-1 win over Miami in the opening round. They won three of the four games by double-digits. They haven’t played since April 24th and will be the fresher team here.
The same cannot be said for the Celtics, who were pushed to the brink of elimination. They needed to win Game 7 against the Bucks just to advance. And they played Game 7 on Saturday, so they have only had one day to get rested and ready for the 76ers.
That’s not enough given the current state of the Celtics. Injuries have taken their toll all season, and another one popped up in Game 7. Jaylen Brown suffered a hamstring injury that forced him to leave the game. Now Brown is doubtful for Game 1 Monday.
The 76ers are 27-12 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Boston. Bet the 76ers in Game 1 Monday.
|04-30-18||Pirates v. Nationals -107||2-3||Win||100||6 h 38 m||Show|
15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -107
The Washington Nationals are being undervalued heading into Game 1 of this series with the Pittsburgh Pirates. They have lost six of their last eight overall. Conversely, the Pirates are being overvalued due to entering this series on a five-game winning streak. Now we’re getting the Nationals at basically even money at home tonight.
And Washington has the clear advantage on the mound in this one. Tanner Roark has been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues over the last three seasons. He is 1-2 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five starts this year.
Jameson Taillon is getting too much respect from the books right now. He is 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in two road starts. Taillon is 0-2 with a 20.30 ERA in his last two starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings.
Pittsburgh is 2-12 in road games after allowing 3 runs or less in two straight games over the last two seasons. The Pirates are 2-11 off two straight wins by 4 runs or more over the last three years. The Nationals are 10-2 in their last 12 Monday games. Washington is 4-0 in Roark’s last four starts during Game 1 of a series. Take the Nationals Monday.
|04-29-18||Diamondbacks v. Nationals -116||1-3||Win||100||2 h 9 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -116
The Washington Nationals will be highly motivated for a win here Sunday. They have lost six of their last seven coming in, including the first two games of this series by exactly one run each to the Diamondbacks. They’ll be motivated for revenge and to avoid the dreaded sweep at home here.
Robbie Ray has been vulnerable this season for the Diamondbacks. He is 2-0 in spite of a 5.13 ERA and 1.557 WHIP. Ray has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-4 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in four career starts against them.
Gio Gonzalez has been great thus far, going 2-2 with a 3.04 ERA in five starts, including 0-1 with a 2.61 ERA in two home starts. Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 3.23 ERA in seven career starts against Arizona.
The Nationals are 13-3 in their last 16 after losing the first two games of a series. Washington is 17-7 in Gonzalez’s last 24 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Nationals Sunday.
|04-29-18||Rockies -107 v. Marlins||0-3||Loss||-107||1 h 27 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Colorado Rockies -107
We are once again getting the Colorado Rockies at basically even money against arguably the worst team in baseball in the Miami Marlins, who are 8-18 this season and getting outscored 3.3 to 5.3 on average. We’ll take advantage again Sunday.
Chad Bettis has been superb up to this point. He has gone 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in five starts, including 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in three road starts.
Caleb Smith is still in search of his first win for the Marlins. He is 0-3 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in five starts this season.
The Rockies are 13-3 in Bettis’ last 16 starts vs. NL East opponents. Colorado is 8-1 in Bettis’ last nine Sunday starts. The Marlins are 2-8 in their last 10 home games. Miami is 0-4 in Smith’s last four starts. Take the Rockies Sunday.
|04-29-18||Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 200||Top||101-105||Loss||-115||2 h 52 m||Show|
20* Pacers/Cavs Game 7 No-Brainer on UNDER 200
The UNDER is 5-1 in the six games in this series thus far. The lone exception was Game 6 as Indiana shot lights out and they combined for 208 points. The Pacers shot 56.3% from the field and 15-of-30 from 3-point range. That’s not going to happen again.
The other five games saw 178, 197, 182, 204 and 193 combined points. Now we have a 200-point total for Game 7 with everything on the line. Defensive intensity will be at an all-time high, and this game will slow down to a snail’s pace. That’s why I really like the UNDER in this Game 7 today.
Indiana is 12-1 UNDER after scoring 120 points or more this season. The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Pacers last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Pacers last 52 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavs last four home games. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings, including 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Cleveland. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|04-28-18||Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 195.5||Top||96-112||Loss||-105||13 h 43 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 195.5
As this series has progressed and these teams have gotten more familiar with one another, points have been harder and harder to come by. The tempo has also slowed down dramatically. That won’t change in this decisive Game 7 with everything on the line.
Boston beat Milwaukee 92-87 for 179 combined points in Game 5. Milwaukee returned the favor with a 97-86 home victory in Game 6 and only 183 combined points. Now we have a total set of 195.5 for Game 7, which is much higher than those two results. I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in this game tonight.
I think it’s no coincidence that these last two games have been so low scoring with the return of Marcus Smart from injury. He is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, and he also tends to hold the ball on offense. Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Saturday.
|04-27-18||Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 207.5||91-96||Win||100||11 h 17 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 207.5
As a series goes on and teams become more familiar with one another, points become harder to come by. I expect that to be the case in this all-important Game 6 here tonight. Both teams will struggle to even reach 100 points in this one with what’s at stake.
The UNDER is now 6-3 in the nine meetings between the Thunder and Jazz this season. They have averaged just 200.1 combined points per game in those nine meetings. So we’re getting at least 7 points of value with the UNDER based on their head-to-head season averages.
And it’s worth noting that in Game 5 Rudy Gobert got in foul trouble and missed most of the second half. The Thunder were stuck on 46 points with 8:00 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, but finished with a fully and a 107-99 win. That was almost all due to Gobert’s absence. Look for him to be smarter about staying out of foul trouble and to play his normal minutes in this one, which will certainly help the UNDER since he’s arguably the most important defender in the league.
Oklahoma City is 17-5 UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons. The Thunder are 9-1 UNDER after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last two years. The UNDER is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Utah. Take the UNDER in Game 6 Friday.
|04-27-18||Rockies -122 v. Marlins||1-0||Win||100||8 h 41 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -122
Almost any time I can fade the Miami Marlins at this kind of price I’m going to take advantage. The Colorado Rockies are by far the superior team here and should be more than a -122 favorite over the 7-17 Marlins, who are arguably the worst team in baseball.
Tyler Anderson has pitched pretty well for the Rockies this season, going 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA in five starts. Anderson has owned the Marlins, going 1-1 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.710 WHIP in two career starts against them.
Jose Urena is off to a rough start this year for the Marlins. He is 0-3 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in five starts, and the Marlins are 0-5 in those games. Urena is 1-1 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in four career starts against Colorado.
The Rockies are 7-2 in their last nine road games. The Marlins are 1-7 in their last eight home games. Miami is 0-7 in Urena’s last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record. Urena is 1-10 (-10.7 units) against the money line in home games when working on 5 or 6 days’ rest in his career. Roll with the Rockies Friday.
|04-27-18||Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 214.5||Top||102-92||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
25* NBA 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 214.5
After going over the total in each of the first three games in this series, the Raptors and Wizards have gone under the total in the last two. This goes right along with my theory that the more familiar teams become with one another, the harder it is to score points.
That has been the case in Games 4 and 5 of this series. They combined for 204 points in Game 4 and 206 points in Game 5. Now they have the total set at 214.5 for Game 6, which is still higher than the 213.5-point total they had for Games 1 and 2. So I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in Game 6 tonight.
Toronto is 15-5 UNDER in April road games over the last three seasons. Washington is 15-7 UNDER off two or more consecutive unders this season. The UNDER is 10-4 in Wizards last 14 games when playing on one days’ rest. Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Friday.
|04-26-18||Celtics v. Bucks -4||Top||86-97||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -4
I think the fact that the Celtics have gone 4-1 ATS thus far in this series has them overvalued. But they barely covered in three of the four games where they were victorious against the spread. I think the value is now with the Bucks at home as only 4-point favorites in this matchup.
The Bucks are in a must-win situation here trying to force a Game 7. It’s safe to say that they will be laying it all on the line tonight. They have played very well in their two home games in this series. They won Game 3 116-92 and then led 51-35 at halftime of Game 4 before the Celtics came out of nowhere to score 67 points in the second half. That’s unlikely to happen again.
It’s also unlikely that the Bucks are going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 5. They shot just 36.8% in that contest, yet still only lost 87-92 as 4.5-point underdogs. They had shot 59.7%, 57% and 52.1% in their three previous games and should get back to torching this undersized Celtics’ defense.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the five games thus far. That trend continues here as Milwaukee forces a Game 7. Bet the Bucks Thursday.
|04-26-18||Braves -130 v. Reds||7-4||Win||100||2 h 7 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Braves -130
The Atlanta Braves don’t want the embarrassment of handing the Reds their first series victory of the season. The Reds won the first two games of this series, but the Braves won yesterday and have a chance to split here. They should get a win against 5-19 Cincinnati here in Game 4 this afternoon.
Sean Newcomb has been solid this season at 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA and 27 K’s in 21 2/3 innings. He has been his best on the road with a 1.59 ERA in two starts with 16 K’s in 11 1/3 innings. Newcomb pitched 5 shutout innings in an 8-1 home victory over the Reds in his lone career start against them last season.
Homer Bailey is still in search of his first victory this season, going 0-3 with a 3.68 ERA. The Reds have gone 0-5 in his five starts. Bailey is 2-2 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in six career starts against Atlanta.
The Reds are 3-14 in their last 17 home games. Cincinnati is 19-47 in its last 66 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Reds are 2-10 in Bailey’s last 12 home starts. Cincinnati is 2-12 in Bailey’s last 14 starts vs. NL East opponents. Take the Braves Thursday.
|04-25-18||Jazz v. Thunder -3.5||Top||99-107||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5
With their season on the line tonight, the Oklahoma City Thunder should respond in a big way at home in Game 5. Look for them to easily cover this generous 3.5-point spread as they are now clearly undervalued after losing the last three games to the Jazz.
The Thunder are 15-1 SU in their last 16 home meetings with the Jazz. They have won these games by an average of 13.1 points per game. This is certainly a trend I want to get behind tonight given the circumstances.
The home team is 21-9 ATS in the last 30 meetings. The Jazz are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Oklahoma City. Bet the Thunder in Game 5 Wednesday.
|04-25-18||Wizards v. Raptors -7||98-108||Win||100||7 h 6 m||Show|
15* Wizards/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto -7
After losing both games in Washington, the Toronto Raptors will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 5 tonight at home. They want to prove their naysayers wrong that this is a different team and one ready to make the NBA Finals.
The Raptors are 36-7 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per game. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with the only exception being a 102-95 Toronto win in Washington in their final regular season meeting this year.
Toronto is 13-3 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last three seasons. The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Raptors are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games. Take the Raptors in Game 5 Wednesday.
|04-25-18||Braves +100 v. Reds||5-4||Win||100||6 h 13 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves +100
After losing the first two games of this series to the lowly Cincinnati Reds, the Atlanta Braves will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight. The Reds are just 5-18 this season, and those were their first two consecutive wins all season.
Matt Wisler was great in his first and only start this season. He gave up just one earned run and two base runners in 7 innings while striking out 8 batters in a 12-4 victory over the Mets. He now holds a 1.29 ERA and 0.286 WHIP in his lone start.
Brandon Finnegan has been knocked around in his two starts for Cincinnati. He has gone 0-2 with an 11.05 ERA and 2.592 WHIP, giving up 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.
The Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss. Atlanta is 6-0 in its last six during Game 3 of a series. The Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 home games. Cincinnati is 5-22 in its last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter. Roll with the Braves Wednesday.
|04-24-18||Heat +10.5 v. 76ers||Top||91-104||Loss||-105||10 h 37 m||Show|
20* Heat/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Miami +10.5
The Miami Heat let a golden opportunity slip by in Game 4 as they were trying to tie this series. They shot just 13-of-25 (52%) from the free throw line, which was the difference in their 102-106 loss. They know they can play with this team, and they will be laying it all on the line in Game 5 to keep their season alive.
Miami is 16-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons. The Heat are 8-1 ATS in road games after having lost four or five of their last six games this season. Miami is 11-3 ATS off two or more consecutive losses this season. The Heat are 22-7 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two years.
Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Miami) - poor foul drawing team attempting 21 or fewer free throws per game, when playing on Tuesday nights are 49-19 (72.1%) ATS since 1996. Miami is 19-9-2 ATS in its last 30 road games. Bet the Heat in Game 5 Tuesday.
|04-24-18||Braves -117 v. Reds||7-9||Loss||-117||8 h 1 m||Show|
15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -117
The Cincinnati Reds picked up a rare win over the Braves yesterday. Still, the Reds are just 4-18 on the season, and don’t expect them to be winning two games in a row for the first time in 2018 tonight.
Brandon McCarthy has pitched great when healthy over the last few seasons. He is healthy this season and is 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in four starts this year. Look for McCarthy to shut down this weak Reds lineup that is hitting just .224 and scoring 3.2 runs per game this season.
Tyler Mahle has been one of the many disappointing starters for Cincinnati this year. He is 1-3 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.571 WHIP through four starts. He’ll be up against an Atlanta lineup that is hitting .263 and scoring 5.5 runs per game this season.
Atlanta is 9-1 in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs over the last two seasons. Cincinnati is 2-13 in its last 15 games overall. The Reds are 1-12 after having lost six or seven of their last eight games this season. Take the Braves Tuesday.
|04-23-18||Rockets v. Wolves +6||Top||119-100||Loss||-103||8 h 2 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Timberwolves TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota +6
I’ve rode Minnesota in every game this series and I’m going to continue to do so tonight. I came into the playoffs believing that the Timberwolves were the most underrated 8th seed of all-time, and the Rockets were overrated for what they did in the regular season. And so far that has panned out.
The Timberwolves have gone toe-to-toe with the Rockets, only getting outscored by 7 points total in their first three games despite playing two of the first three in Houston. This is simply a different team with a healthy Jimmy Butler, and an 8th seed that no No. 1 seed would ever want to have to face.
The Timberwolves responded in a big way with a 121-105 victory in Game 3. They have rabid home fans who have been starving for a playoff game for more than a decade. It will be another raucous atmosphere tonight in Minneapolis as the Timberwolves likely square this series 2-2, though we’ll take the 6 points for some added insurance.
The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. Western Conference opponents. Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last six games overall. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 4 Monday.
|04-23-18||Braves -128 v. Reds||4-10||Loss||-128||7 h 34 m||Show|
15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -128
The Atlanta Braves are one of the more underrated teams in baseball this season. They are among the National League leaders in runs scored as they average 5.5 per game. Cincinnati is right there with Miami and the Chicago White Sox as the worst teams in baseball. The Reds are 3-18 this season, hitting just .220 as a team and scoring 2.9 runs per game.
The Braves have a massive advantage on the mound tonight and should be favored by more as a result. Mike Foltynewicz is 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in four starts with 26 K’s in 21 1/3 innings. Folty is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.232 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati as well.
Sal Romano is one of the many terrible starters in Cincinnati’s rotation. He has gone 0-2 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.525 WHIP in four starts this season. He has struck out just 11 batters in 20 1/3 innings. He is no match for Folty tonight.
The Reds are 1-11 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Cincinnati is 1-5 in Romano’s last six starts. The Red are 1-13 in their last 14 games overall. Take the Braves Monday.
|04-22-18||Cavs +1 v. Pacers||Top||104-100||Win||100||31 h 37 m||Show|
20* Cavs/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on Cleveland +1
After choking away a huge lead in the 2nd half of Game 3, the Cleveland Cavaliers will come back with a chip on their shoulder in Game 4. This is a must-win game for them and I expect them to respond as so.
I trust Lebron James in this situation more than any other player in the NBA. Of course, he will have to get some help from his teammates, which has been lacking thus far in the series. Look for the role players to step up and follow his lead.
Indiana is a young team that’s not ready for the spotlight just yet. They have answered the bell in the first three games, but now the pressure intensifies. I don’t trust them in this situation.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Indiana) - off a close win by 3 points or less against opponent that’s off a loss by 6 points or less are 45-21 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Cavaliers in Game 4 Sunday.
|04-22-18||Pirates +126 v. Phillies||2-3||Loss||-100||4 h 60 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +126
I love the situation here for the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday. They have lost each of the first three games of this series to the Phillies and will be highly motivated to avoid the dreaded four-game sweep with a win.
Of course, it doesn’t hurt that they send Trevor Williams to the mound, and he has been lights out this season. Williams is 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in four starts this year. He has faced the Cubs and Rockies in his last two starts, so it’s not like he is doing it against weak lineups.
Nick Pivetta’s numbers have been good this year, but he is doing it against weak competition. His four starts have come against the Braves (twice), Marlins and Reds.
Pittsburgh is 8-1 (+8.2 units) against the money line in day games this season. The Pirates are 6-0 in their last six Sunday games. Pittsburgh is 4-1 in Williams’ last five starts. Roll with the Pirates Sunday.
|04-22-18||Celtics v. Bucks -4.5||102-104||Loss||-108||23 h 6 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Bucks ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -4.5
The Milwaukee Bucks are clearly the more talented team right now due to all of the injuries for Boston. That talent shined through in Game 3, and it will once again in Game 4 today.
The Celtics simply wanted it more in the first two games in this series. It also helped that they shot nearly 60% in Game 2. But as this series goes on, I think their deficiencies will start to show as there is more than a crack or two in their foundation.
I like the resiliency the Bucks showed in Game 3 with their 116-92 blowout victory. They will come out like gangbusters once again in Game 4 with their backs still against the wall here down in this series. And I think this 4.5-point spread is very generous given that they are the better team right now and playing at home.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more against opponent off a home win scoring 110 or more points are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Bucks in Game 4 Sunday.
|04-21-18||Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 207||102-115||Loss||-105||57 h 20 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 207
This has been an UNDER series between the Jazz and Thunder. I think the books have set the bar too high in this Game 3. As the series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another, and that certainly favors defense.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the six meetings between Utah and Oklahoma City this season. Game 1 was clearly the aberration as they combined for 224 points. But the other five meetings saw 197, 192, 186, 194 and 183 combined points. That’s an average of 196.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight’s posted total of 207, showing that there is a ton of value with the UNDER.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Utah) - in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 56-26 (68.3%) since 1996. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Oklahoma City) - after having won five or six of their last seven games, extremely well-rested team playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 73-33 (68%) over the last five seasons.
Oklahoma City is 27-11 UNDER as a road underdog over the last two seasons. The Thunder are 11-3 UNDER off a home loss this season. The Jazz are 8-1 UNDER in home games when playing with two days’ rest this season. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|04-21-18||Rockets v. Wolves +4.5||Top||105-121||Win||100||55 h 5 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Timberwolves ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +4.5
Minnesota fans will be raucous as they’ve waited a long time for a home playoff game. Look for the Timberwolves to respond in a big way and get right back in this series with a big Game 3 win at home tonight.
Minnesota played well in a 101-104 Game 1 loss as 11.5-point underdogs. But they couldn’t make anything in Game 2 and lost 82-102. They also turned the ball over 16 games and shot just 27.8% from 3-point range. It’s safe to say they will play much better here tonight.
I think this is the game where the Timberwolves say enough is enough. The Rockets have had their number over the past two seasons, winning eight straight meetings coming in. Look for them to relax enough after taking a 2-0 lead that the Timberwolves will be by far the more motivated, aggressive team in Game 3.
Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive unders this season. It is winning by 13.8 points per game on average in this spot this year. Take the Timberwolves Saturday.
|04-21-18||Mets v. Braves +141||3-4||Win||141||7 h 39 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Braves +141
The Atlanta Braves are showing great value as home underdogs to the New York Mets today. They are sending ace Julio Teheran to the mound tonight and should not be this big of dogs.
Teheran has given up just 3 earned runs in 12 innings over his last two starts. Teheran loves facing the Mets, going 8-5 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 19 career starts against them.
Jacob DeGrom is a great starter, but he’s getting too much respect from oddsmakers today. He has allowed 7 earned runs over 13 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in. He has also given up 6 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts against Atlanta.
New York is 14-42 vs. teams who are outscoring their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season over the last two seasons. The Braves are 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss. Atlanta is 5-0 in Teheran’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Braves Saturday.
|04-20-18||Padres v. Diamondbacks -120||4-1||Loss||-120||10 h 49 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -120
The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing great value as small home favorites over the San Diego Padres tonight. They are getting overlooked here because Matt Koch will be making his just third major league start.
Koch gave up just one run and five hits in six innings against the Padres in one of those two previous starts. He pitched two scoreless innings of relief against the Cardinals on April 7th. He is ready as he was one of the last starters optioned to Triple-A Reno out of spring training.
Tyson Ross is getting way too much respect from the books in this one. He missed most of the last two seasons with arm issues. Ross hasn’t faced the Diamondbacks since 2015. This is the best lineup he will have faced other than Houston, which he allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings against.
The Padres are 2-7 in Ross’ last nine starts. The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last six home games. Arizona is 10-3 in its last 13 home meetings with San Diego. Take the Diamondbacks Friday.
|04-20-18||Raptors v. Wizards -1.5||Top||103-122||Win||100||32 h 36 m||Show|
20* Raptors/Wizards ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Washington -1.5
The Toronto Raptors shot lights out in their first two games at home against the Wizards in this series. They shot 53.2% in Game 1 and 16-of-30 (53.3%) from 3-point range. In Game 2, they shot 51.7% and 13-of-35 (37.1%) from 3-point range.
The law of averages says that they won’t shoot that well against in Game 3. Look for a big effort from the Wizards at home here Friday night to try and get back in this series. They have shot it pretty well these first two games with 106 points in Game 1 and 119 points in Game 2, but it wasn’t quite enough. They will be much better defensively at home in Game 3.
Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Toronto) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Toronto) - hot team having covered six or seven of their last eight against the spread, with a winning record on the season are 75-39 (65.8%) ATS over the last five years. The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Wizards Friday.
|04-19-18||Blazers +4 v. Pelicans||102-119||Loss||-105||11 h 19 m||Show|
15* Blazers/Pelicans NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Portland +4
The Portland Trail Blazers are extremely disappointed to be down 0-2 in this series. They had their chances in Game 1 and Game 2, trailing by exactly 2 points in the closing seconds both games. They shot just 37.8% in Game 1 and 45.1% in Game 2.
I expect the Blazers to come out with a win-or-die attitude in Game 3 tonight. They have been bashed in the media leading up to this game, especially Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. These guys already play with a chip on their shoulder and will only be extra motivated to make amends tonight.
The Pelicans will likely relax now that they’ve stolen two games in Portland. Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis have both been receiving huge praise in the media, as have Rajon Rondo and Nikola Mirotic. Deservedly so, but that’s the type of exposure that will make players relax.
Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series recently. The road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Pelicans are only 24-17 at home this year compared to 26-17 on the road. Plays against home favorites (New Orleans) after beating the spread by 54 or more points in their last 10 games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Blazers Thursday.
|04-19-18||76ers v. Heat UNDER 217||Top||128-108||Loss||-110||9 h 19 m||Show|
20* 76ers/Heat TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 217
The 76ers and Heat shot lights out in Game 1 and combined for 233 points. They set expectations for themselves that they could not live up to moving forward. They still combined for 216 points in Game 2, but that went UNDER the 217-point total. And now I expect an even lower-scoring Game 3 with an identical 217-point total.
As a series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another. That favors defense. I also like the fact that this series is moving to Miami. The Heat want to slow it down, while the 76ers want to play at a fast pace. Well, the home team is the one that usually controls the pace, so expect this to be the slowest tempo of any game thus far.
Five of the last six meetings between Miami and Philadelphia have seen 216 or fewer combined points. Miami is 11-2 UNDER off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 12-4 in 76ers last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last seven conference quarterfinals games. The UNDER is 37-18-2 in Heat last 57 Thursday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|04-19-18||Cardinals v. Cubs -107||5-8||Win||100||4 h 19 m||Show|
15* Cardinals/Cubs MLB Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -107
After losing the first and only game in this series to the rival Cardinals 5-3, the Chicago Cubs should come back motivated for a victory here in their final game with St. Louis after Wednesday’s game was cancelled due to weather.
Jon Lester will be up against a team that he has simply owned. Lester is 7-5 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.003 WHIP in 17 career starts against the Cardinals.
Luke Weaver is getting too much respect from the books due to his solid start this season. But Weaver is up against a team he has struggled mightily against. Weaver is 0-1 with a 12.86 ERA and 2.286 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago.
Lester is 32-8 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage of .325 or worse over the last three seasons. The Cubs are 37-17 in Lester’s last 54 home starts. Chicago is 6-0 in Lester’s last six starts when working on 7 or more days’ rest. The Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with the Cardinals. Chicago is 4-0 in Lester’s last four home starts vs. St. Louis. Roll with the Cubs Thursday.
|04-18-18||Wolves +10.5 v. Rockets||Top||82-102||Loss||-105||48 h 53 m||Show|
20* Timberwolves/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +10.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves gave the Houston Rockets all they wanted in Game 1. They only lost 101-104 despite an awful shooting night in which they shot just 43.7% from the field compared to 47% for the Rockets.
Playing playoff basketball down the stretch really helped the Timberwolves. They needed to win Game No. 82 just to get in the playoffs, while the Rockets were coasting for weeks. And having Jimmy Butler healthy down the stretch made all the difference for this team as well.
They are now 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS since Butler returned from injury. Butler meant everything for this team during the regular season. They went 39-23 with him in the lineup, and just 8-12 in the 20 games without him. They are certainly good enough to hang with Houston at full strength, which was evident in Game 1.
Plays against home favorites (Houston) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 45-19 (70.3%) ATS since 1996.
Minnesota is 22-10 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons. Houston is 9-18 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season. The Rockets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference opponents. The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Houston. Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Wednesday.
|04-18-18||Phillies v. Braves -105||3-7||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -105
After losing in extra innings to the Phillies yesterday, the Atlanta Braves will be out for revenge tonight. They should get that revenge and take this series behind starter Brandon McCarthy.
McCarthy is 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA in three starts this season. He has been good when healthy over the last few years, but staying healthy has been the issue. McCarthy is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA in four career starts against Philadelphia.
Vincent Velasquez is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.369 WHIP in three starts this season for the Phillies. His worst start came against Atlanta on March 31st when he allowed 7 runs, 4 earned, and 11 base runners in 2 2/3 innings of a 2-15 loss. Velasquez has never beaten the Braves, going 0-2 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in five career starts against them.
The Phillies are 20-54 in their last 74 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Philadelphia is 2-9 in Velasquez’s last 11 starts when working on four days of rest. The Braves are 7-1 in their last eight games following a loss. Atlanta is 4-0 in its last four during Game 3 of a series. Take the Braves Wednesday.
|04-17-18||Pelicans v. Blazers -6.5||111-102||Loss||-102||25 h 16 m||Show|
15* Pelicans/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -6.5
After losing Game 1 in heartbreaking fashion 97-95, I look for the Portland Trail Blazers to get a big win and cover in Game 2 to get right back in this series. They cannot afford to fall down 0-2, and the Pelicans are just happy to steal one game in Portland.
The Blazers couldn’t have shot any worse in Game 1, yet they still about won the game. They shot just 37-of-98 (37.8%) from the field and 12-of-39 (30.8%) from 3-point range. I suspect the game plan will be to try and get the ball inside more to Jusuf Nurkic and to attack the rim after settling for too many jumpers in Game 1.
The Pelicans actually shot the ball well, making 47.7% from the field. They won’t top that number, and as long as the Blazers at least match them from a percentage standpoint, they should easily cover this spread in Game 2.
Portland is 21-4 SU & 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 home games. The Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the league, especially in the second half of the season this year. With their season ultimately on the line tonight, they’ll come through with a big effort. Take the Blazers Tuesday.
|04-17-18||Wizards v. Raptors UNDER 215||Top||119-130||Loss||-108||22 h 41 m||Show|
20* Wizards/Raptors NBA Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 215
The Wizards and Raptors combined for 220 points in Game 1. But both teams shot lights out to get there, especially the Raptors. I look for a much lower scoring Game 2 and for this contest to stay UNDER the 215-point total.
The Raptors shot 53.2% from the field, 53.3% from 3-point range with 16 made 3-pointers, and 80% from the line in Game 1. The Wizards shot a solid 47.7% from the field, 38.1% from 3-point range and 88.9% from the free throw line. At the very least, the Raptors won’t shoot as well in Game 2, and the Wizards will be hard-pressed to match their numbers.
Eight of the previous 11 meetings in this series saw 203 or fewer combined points. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Toronto with an average combined score of just 199.2 points per game. I think we get back to seeing a more familiar combined score between these teams, one much lower than this 215-point total. There is clearly some value with the UNDER after a high-scoring Game 1.
Washington is 11-3 UNDER in road games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season. The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Wizards last six games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 10-4 in Raptors last 14 Conference Quarterfinals games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|04-17-18||Marlins v. Yankees -1.5||9-1||Loss||-140||7 h 54 m||Show|
15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-140)
I backed the Yankees on the Run Line yesterday in a 12-1 victory over the Miami Marlins. I’m going to hop back on board today with the same pick. Instead of taking the Yankees at roughly -300 on the money line, we’ll back them at -140 on the Run Line at a much more favorable price.
The Marlins are the worst team in baseball in my opinion. They are just 4-12 this season with 11 of those 12 losses coming by 2 runs or more. Their lineup is atrocious, and their rotation is awful as well. Jarlin Garcia stands little chance of being successful against this potent Yankees’ lineup tonight.
Masahiro Tanaka should be able to shut down the Marlins. This is by far his easiest start of the year after facing the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox in his first three starts. He has posted a 1.039 WHIP with 18 K’s in 17 1/3 innings thus far. Tanaka gave up just 2 earned runs in 7 innings in his lone career start against Miami for a 2.57 ERA.
The Marlins are 18-40 in their last 58 vs. AL East opponents. Miami is 8-25 in its last 33 interleague road games. The Yankees are 7-0 in their last seven interleague games. New York is 8-1 in its last nine home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Yankees are 40-17 in Tanaka’s last 57 home starts. New York is 5-1 in its last six home meetings with Miami. Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday.
|04-16-18||Spurs +10 v. Warriors||101-116||Loss||-115||11 h 44 m||Show|
15* Spurs/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +10
Greg Popovich called out his players after an ugly 92-113 loss to Golden State in Game 1. His exact words were that they looked like a ‘deer in headlights’. Look for his players to respond with a much better effort in Game 2 tonight.
It was a rare performance for the Spurs in which they lost most of the 50-50 balls and were out rebounded 57-40. They also caught the Warriors on a rare good shooting night in which they shot 54.3%, while the Spurs couldn’t make anything and shot just 40.0%. Look for those percentages to be much closer to even in Game 2 with the Spurs covering this 10-point spread.
Plays on road underdogs (San Antonio) - after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread against opponent after having covered two of their last three against the spread are 177-113 (61%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Golden State is 3-14 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games in the second half of the season this season. San Antonio is 14-4 ATS after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread over the last two seasons. The Spurs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss by more than 10 points. The Warriors are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on one days’ rest. Take the Spurs in Game 2 Monday.
|04-16-18||Heat +7 v. 76ers||Top||113-103||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
20* Heat/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Miami +7
The Miami Heat actually held a 60-56 lead over Philadelphia at halftime in Game 1. That’s why it’s so hard to believe they lost by 27. But the 76ers couldn’t miss in the second half and rode that momentum to a blowout victory.
This is one of my favorite situations in the playoffs. I like backing the team coming off the blowout loss because they will be the more motivated team. And the 76ers aren’t going to shoot 18-of-28 (64.3%) from 3-point range again.
That was a rare blowout victory for the 76ers in this series, too. It was only the second time in the last 16 meetings that the 76ers have beaten the Heat by more than 7 points. They split the season series 2-2 with the Heat’s two losses coming by 2 and 6 points.
Miami is 26-10-2 ATS in its last 38 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game. Bet the Heat in Game 2 Monday.
|04-16-18||Marlins v. Yankees -1.5||1-12||Win||100||6 h 16 m||Show|
15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-125)
Instead of laying -300 or more to back the Yankees on the Money Line tonight, we’ll gladly lay just -125 with them on the Run Line in hopes that they win this game by two runs or more. I think that shouldn’t be a problem against what I believe is the worst team in baseball in the Miami Marlins.
The Marlins are just 4-11 this season with 10 of those 11 losses coming by two runs or more. The Yankees are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off due to weather. Giancarlo Stanton will be excited to face his former team for the first time as well.
Luis Severino is one of the better starters in baseball. He went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 31 starts last season. He struck out 230 batters in 193 1/3 innings. He is 2-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP through three starts this season as well.
Caleb Smith has not fared well in limited action in the big leagues in his brief two-year career to this point. He is 0-2 with a 6.47 ERA and 1.625 WHIP while allowing 23 earned runs and 6 homers in 32 innings. He is in line to get rocked against this potent Yankees’ lineup tonight.
The Marlins are 18-39 in their last 57 vs. AL East opponents. Miami is 8-24 in its last 32 interleague road games. The Yankees are 6-0 in their last six interleague games. New York is 7-1 in its last eight home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Yankees are 7-0 in Severino’s last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 13-3 in Severino’s last 16 home starts. Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Monday.
|04-15-18||Wolves +11.5 v. Rockets||101-104||Win||100||54 h 18 m||Show|
15* Timberwolves/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +11.5
The Houston Rockets have been the best team in the NBA during the regular season. That makes them overvalued heading into the playoffs. Expectations are high, and I look for them to fall short of expectations in Game 1 considering they are whopping 11.5-point favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves.
I think the fact that the Rockets took their foot off the gas down the stretch after wrapping up the No. 1 seed in the West will work against them early in the playoffs. They went 1-6 ATS over their final seven games and haven’t been into it mentally. They also have some key injuries right now with Luc Mbah a Moute and Ryan Anderson out for Game 1, and Eric Gordon questionable.
The Timberwolves have been playing playoff basketball down the stretch. They needed to win Game No. 82 just to get into the playoffs, and they did so in overtime against the Nuggets, so they will be oozing with confidence and feeling like they are playing with house’s money. They also got a healthy Jimmy Butler back for the last few games of the regular season, and this team has been much better with Butler in the lineup as he has played at a near-MVP level when healthy this year.
I also think the fact that the Rockets went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the Timberwolves this season has them overvalued, and it also has the Timberwolves motivated for revenge. Having Butler healthy and able to guard James Harden will be huge in this series. Butler is one of the top defenders in the league when focused, and he’ll certainly be focused in the playoffs.
The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since Butler returned from injury. He only played in 62 games this season. The Timberwolves went 8-12 without him, and 39-23 with him. That’s the kind of difference he makes for this team. It’s safe to say Minnesota is one dangerous 8th seed, and maybe the best 8th seed I can ever remember. Roll with the Timberwolves Sunday.
|04-15-18||Jazz v. Thunder -3.5||Top||108-116||Win||100||52 h 48 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Thunder TNT Sunday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -3.5
The Utah Jazz are certainly a great regular season team. They play solid defense and will fight you every night. But they lack superstar power, and that’s what you need in the playoffs. I think they are in over their heads here in Game 1 against the Thunder.
The Thunder aren’t short on star power. Russell Westbrook just finished averaging a triple-double for the second consecutive season, which is unheard of. Paul George is still a Top 10 player in this league, Carmelo Anthony is hungry, and Steven Adams is one of the most underrated centers in the game because he does all the dirty work.
I think the Jazz come in overvalued due to their big finish to the season. But they are just 20-21 on the road, and the Thunder have an excellent home-court advantage with a 27-14 record this season. And the Thunder own the Jazz, going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The Thunder won their final three meetings with the Jazz this season by 14, 28 and 6 points. In fact, Oklahoma City is 14-0 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Utah. It has won those 14 meetings by an average of 14.9 points per game. Enough said. Bet the Thunder Sunday.
|04-15-18||Giants v. Padres -115||1-10||Win||100||5 h 58 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -115
Rookie left-hander Joey Lucchesi moved into the Padres’ rotation when Dinelson Lamet suffered an elbow injury in his final start of spring training. Lucchesi has taken advantage, going 1-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 1.021 WHIP with 16 K’s in 15 2/3 innings in his three starts against Colorado (twice) and Milwaukee.
Fellow rookie Tyler Beede has only made one start for the Giants, and it didn’t go well. He allowed eight base runners, including five walks, in four innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks at home. He was clearly feeling the nerves and now will be making his first career road start.
Lucchesi was named the Padres Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2017, going a combined 11-7 with a 2.20 ERA between his two stops with a combined .200 batting average against. He had 148 strikeouts against only 33 walks in 139 innings. This guy is a future star, and he’s mispriced in the early going in 2018.
The Giants are 20-43 in their last 63 road games. San Francisco is 3-14 in its last 17 during Game 4 of a series. The Padres are 22-10 in the last 32 meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Diego. Take the Padres Sunday.
|04-14-18||Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 7||9-1||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
15* DBacks/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7
The books have set the bar too low on this total between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers tonight. Look for a slug fest similar to the 8-7 final last night as this has tended to be a much higher scoring series than it gets credit for.
Taijaun Walker is 2-2 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in six career starts against Los Angeles. Rich Hill is 1-6 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 11 career starts against Arizona. The OVER is 4-0 in Hill’s last four starts vs. Arizona.
The OVER is 9-3 in Diamondbacks last 12 vs. a left-handed starter. The OVER is 5-1 in Dodgers last six vs. a right-handed starter. The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles. Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.
|04-14-18||Heat +7 v. 76ers||Top||103-130||Loss||-105||29 h 18 m||Show|
20* Heat/76ers ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Miami +7
The Miami Heat are probably the most underrated team in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They aren’t flashy and lack superstars, but they will fight, scratch and claw on every possession. This is the type of team I want to get behind.
The 76ers come into the playoffs way overvalued due to their 16-game winning streak. Now they are being asked to lay 7 points here in Game 1 despite the fact that they will be missing their best player in Joel Embiid. It’s always tough for young teams like the 76ers to have success in their first go-round in the playoffs, and I expect that to be the case for Philadelphia.
The Heat have played the 76ers extremely tough this season, and in recent years. Miami split the season series 2-2 with its two losses both coming on the road by 2 and 6 points, respectively. Only once in the last 15 meetings have the 76ers beaten the Heat by more than 7 points, which was an 8-point win. That makes for a 14-1 system backing the Heat pertaining to this 7-point spread.
The Heat are 15-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons. Miami is 15-3 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two years. The Heat are 26-9-2 ATS in their last 37 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Heat Saturday.
|04-14-18||Spurs +8 v. Warriors||92-113||Loss||-105||24 h 18 m||Show|
15* Spurs/Warriors ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +8
The Golden State Warriors are vulnerable in Round 1 because they are missing their best player in Stephen Curry. They just haven’t been the same without him down the stretch, and they certainly should not be laying 8 points to the Spurs in Game 1 Saturday.
The Warriors are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall. They have gone just 6-10 SU in their last 16 games. That’s not the sign of a team that should be this big of a favorite against a Spurs team that played well down the stretch just to get into the playoffs.
The Spurs are 10-5 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games overall. They have been playing playoff basketball for a month now because there was a brief time there where they were in 9th place in the West and in need of a big finish just to get into the playoffs.
The last two meetings have been impressive by the Spurs. They only lost 107-110 at Golden State as 11-point underdogs on March 8th in a game in which the Warriors needed a huge fourth quarter just to get a close win. And the Spurs returned the favor with an 89-75 victory on March 19th at home in their most recent meeting.
Golden State is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team that wins 51% to 60% of its games on ht season. The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a win by more than 10 points. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Golden State is 9-24-1 ATS in its last 34 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Spurs Saturday.
|04-13-18||Rangers v. Astros -1.5||Top||2-3||Loss||-119||7 h 18 m||Show|
20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-119)
The Houston Astros will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight following back-to-back losses at Minnesota. They are still 9-4 on the season with seven of those wins coming by two runs or more. So instead of laying -240 on the money line, we’ll back them on the run line at a much more favorable -119 price.
Gerrit Cole has delivered in a big way for the Astros in the early going. He is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two starts with 22 strikeouts in 14 innings. One of those starts came against Texas on April 1st as he allowed just one earned run in 7 innings while striking out 11. Cole is now 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two career starts against Texas.
Cole Hamels has taken a big step back since joining the Rangers. He hasn’t fared well thus far in 2018, going 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in three starts. Hamels is 0-2 with a 9.34 ERA in his last two starts against Houston, giving up 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.
Texas is 1-11 off two straight losses by 4 runs or more over the last two seasons. It is coming back to lose by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot. The Rangers are 0-9 in their last nine vs. starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Houston is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. Bet the Astros on the Run Line Friday.
|04-13-18||Brewers v. Mets -117||5-6||Win||100||6 h 19 m||Show|
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -117
The New York Mets are off to their best start in franchise history. They are showing what they can do when healthy, which they weren’t last season. They are now 10-1 on the season. This will be their first home game since April 4th, and it will be a packed house tonight as fans show their appreciation for this incredible start.
The Mets send Steven Matz to the mound to try and continue the success of this dominant rotation thus far. Matz has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.333 WHIP through his first two starts this season against St. Louis and Washington. He is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in two career starts against Milwaukee.
The Brewers are fortunate to be 7-6 this season, because they have the third-worst run differential (-15) in the National League. They aren’t doing anything well, but have just been fortunate in close games. Zach Davies is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.285 WHIP in two starts this season. Davies gave up 6 earned runs and 16 base runners in 10 innings across two starts against the Mets last season for a 5.40 ERA.
The Mets are 7-0 in their last seven games following a win. New York is 8-0 vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse this season. The Brewers are 1-4 in Davies’ last five starts. The Mets are 7-2 in their last nine home meetings with Milwaukee. Roll with the Mets Friday.
|04-13-18||Blue Jays v. Indians -128||8-4||Loss||-128||6 h 18 m||Show|
15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -128
This is a pretty generous price to get the Cleveland Indians at home tonight. Usually they are around -200 favorites at home, but tonight they are only -128. We’ll gladly take advantage.
One of the reasons they are undervalued tonight is because Mike Clevinger is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He went 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA last year for the Indians, and he’s 1-0 with a 0.71 ERA through two starts this season, allowing just one earned run in 12 2/3 innings.
I’m not quite sure why Marcus Stroman is getting so much respect from the books tonight. He is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up 9 earned runs and 17 base runners in 9 2/3 innings.
Cleveland is 30-6 off two straight wins by 4 runs or more over the last three seasons. The Blue Jays are 0-6 in Stroman’s last six Friday starts. The Indians are 24-5 in their last 29 during Game 1 of a series. Cleveland is 7-0 in Clevinger’s last seven home starts. The Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last six meetings in Cleveland. Take the Indians Friday.
|04-12-18||Rockies v. Nationals OVER 9||Top||5-1||Loss||-110||8 h 7 m||Show|
20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockies/Nationals OVER 9
The key handicap as to why I like this OVER tonight is the fact that the weather will be great in Washington for a high-scoring affair. Temperatures will be in the 70’s by game time and the wind is expected to be blowing out to straightaway center at 19 miles per hour.
I think this total is lower than it should be because both Chad Bettis (2.53 ERA) and Gio Gonzalez (1.59 ERA) have been successful in their first two starts. But Bettis faced the Padres and Braves, while Gonzalez faced the Reds and Mets.
These are two of the best lineups in the National League. It will be by far the toughest test of the season for both Bettis and Gonzalez. The Rockies and Nationals have combined for 12 or more runs in eight of their last 11 meetings with the OVER going 8-3 in those 11 games.
Gonzalez is 16-4 OVER in his last 20 home games after giving up one or fewer earned runs in each of his last two outings coming in. The OVER is 7-3-1 in Rockies last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The OVER is 4-1 in Gonzalez’s last five starts overall. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|04-11-18||Nets -1 v. Celtics||97-110||Loss||-105||8 h 16 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn Nets -1
The Boston Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days here tonight. They are already short-handed with all of their injuries, and they would be wise to rest all of their starters in this final game before the playoffs.
The Celtics are locked in to the No. 2 seed, so this game doesn’t matter to them at all. That’s why we have seen a shift from the opener of Celtics -5.5 to the Nets being 1-point favorites. It’s a big adjustment, but it’s not big enough. It’s clear to me that the Nets will win this game.
Brooklyn has been playing for pride and trying to build chemistry down the stretch. That’s evident by the fact that the Nets are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall, including three straight victories by 8 points or more coming in. They aren’t about to let up now.
The Nets are 9-1 ATS in road games off a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games this season. Boston is 6-17 ATS in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last two years. The Celtics are 1-8 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game this season. Brooklyn is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Boston. Take the Nets Wednesday.
|04-11-18||Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 214.5||Top||106-112||Loss||-100||8 h 48 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Timberwolves UNDER 214.5
This is a play-in game between the Nuggets and Timberwolves. The winner will be the 8th seed in the playoffs, while the loser will either be taking a depressing flight or bus ride home. With what’s at stake, I fully expect this to be a nervy, defensive battle tonight.
The Nuggets and Timberwolves recently played on April 5th less than a week ago. The Nuggets won that game 100-96 at home for 196 combined points. Now we are seeing a total set of 214.5, which is way too high and I believe there is value with the UNDER because of it.
Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (Minnesota) - after going under the total by 42 or more points in their last five games, when playing a division opponent are 37-16 (69.8%) since 1996.
Minnesota is 14-4 UNDER off two or more consecutive unders this season. The UNDER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six vs. Western Conference opponents. The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|04-11-18||Tigers v. Indians -1.5||1-5||Win||100||6 h 13 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-123)
Instead of laying roughly -265 to back the Indians on the money line, we are going to take the hugely discounted price of -123 on the run line tonight. I am sure they will get the win against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Tigers, and it’s likely to come by two runs or more due to their massive advantage on the mound.
Carlos Carrasco is one of the better starters in baseball. He is off to a 2-0 start with a 5.40 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in his two starts this season. Carrasco has dominated the Tigers recently, going 7-1 with a 1.52 ERA in his last 11 starts against them, giving up just 11 earned runs in 65 1/3 innings.
Jordan Zimmerman has been a massive bust in Detroit. He is 0-0 with an 8.71 ERA and 1.646 WHIP in his two starts this season against Chicago and Pittsburgh, giving up 10 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings. Zimmerman has never beaten the Indians, going 0-4 with a whopping 10.88 ERA and 2.014 WHIP in five career starts against them.
The Tigers are 1-8 in Zimmerman’s last nine starts when working on five days’ rest. Detroit is 17-47 in its last 64 games overall. The Indians are 21-5 in Carrasco’s last 26 starts vs. AL Central opponents. Cleveland is 8-0 in Carrasco’s last eight home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Cleveland is 7-0 in Carrasco’s last seven starts when working on four days’ rest. Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Wednesday.
|04-10-18||Brewers v. Cardinals -1.5||3-5||Win||130||9 h 44 m||Show|
15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+130)
Instead of laying -175 or so to back the Cardinals on the money line, I’m going to take the value and bet the Cardinals on the -1.5 run line at a +130 price. I have no doubt the Cardinals win this game, and it’s likely they do so by 2 runs or more given their advantage on the mound.
Carlos Martinez pitched 8 1/3 shutout innings while striking out 10 in a 6-0 win at Milwaukee in his last start. He is now 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Brewers. He’ll be motivated to help the Cardinals bounce back from two consecutive losses coming in, including one in extra innings last night to the Brewers.
Brent Suter has been rocked in the early going. He is 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.700 WHIP while allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 10 innings pitched across two starts this season. Suter has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in two career starts against them.
The Cardinals are 4-1 in Martinez’s last five home starts. The Brewers are 1-4 in their last five vs. a team with a losing record. St. Louis is 8-2 in Martinez’s last 10 Tuesday starts. Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday.
|04-10-18||76ers v. Hawks +10||Top||121-113||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Hawks +10
The Atlanta Hawks will be playing their season finale today at home against one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference in the Philadelphia 76ers. They will be motivated to beat the 76ers, just as they have other playoff teams here recently.
The Hawks are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They beat Orlando, only lost to Miami by 3 as 13-point road dogs, beat Washington by 6 as 10.5-point road dogs, and beat Boston by 6 as 9.5-point road dogs. Those efforts show that we are getting tremendous value with them as 10-point home underdogs tonight.
The 76ers are grossly overvalued right now due to their 14-game winning streak. They are certainly worthy of being favorites here tonight, but not double-digit road favorites. Philadelphia hasn’t beaten Atlanta by more than 10 points in any of the last 17 meetings in this series, making for a 17-0 system backing the Hawks pertaining to this 10-point spread.
Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games are 64-28 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Plays on home teams (Atlanta) revenging a home loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS over the last five years. Bet the Hawks Tuesday.
|04-10-18||Blue Jays v. Orioles +110||2-1||Loss||-100||8 h 34 m||Show|
15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +110
The Baltimore Orioles are showing excellent value as home underdogs to the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. They will be motivated to bounce back from a 1-7 loss to the Blue Jays in Game 1 of this series yesterday, and I actually believe they have the advantage on the mound tonight.
Aaron Sanchez is off to a rough start for the Blue Jays, going 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.628 WHIP in his two starts this season while allowing 7 earned runs and 19 base runners in 11 2/3 innings. Sanchez hasn’t enjoyed facing the Orioles as he has posted a 4.69 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in 10 career starts against them. He gave up 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 1/3 innings in his two starts against Baltimore last season.
Andrew Cashner has been one of the more underrated starters in his time in the big leagues. He is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in two starts this season. He only allowed one earned run in 6 innings of a 5-2 win at Yankee Stadium last time out, which is no small feat. Cashner is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in two career starts against Toronto.
Plays on home teams (Baltimore) - off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite, a bad team (38% or less) playing a team with a winning record are 30-9 (76.9%, +24 units) over the last five seasons. The Blue Jays are 1-5 in Sanchez’s last six starts. Roll with the Orioles Tuesday.
|04-09-18||Blazers v. Nuggets -4||Top||82-88||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver Nuggets -4
The Denver Nuggets have really stepped up their game down the stretch with their playoff lives on the line. They have gone 5-0 in their last five games overall while beating four playoff teams in Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, Indiana and Minnesota, as well as a 134-115 road win at Oklahoma City.
The Nuggets are now tied with the Timberwolves for the 8th seed, but they currently lose out on the tiebreaker. They play at Minnesota Wednesday night, so they must keep pace with them with a win here if they want to make the playoffs. The Timberwolves host the Grizzlies tonight and will surely win that game.
Portland really has nothing to play for. The Blazers can either be the 3rd or 4th seed in the West, but that won’t be determined until they play current 4th seed Utah on Wednesday. They will be looking ahead to that game. The Blazers are clearly worried more about resting right now as they are 0-3 in their last three games overall and disinterested.
The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well. The Nuggets have won their last two meetings with the Blazers this season, one at home and one on the road. Bet the Nuggets Monday.
|04-09-18||Reds v. Phillies -125||5-6||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -125
I expect the Philadelphia Phillies to be one of the most improved teams in baseball this season. Their young prospects are starting to make big gains, and they added some nice pieces in free agency. They just went off for 20 runs against the Marlins on Saturday to flash their potential.
Ben Lively was effective in his first start this season, limiting the Mets to 2 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings for a 3.17 ERA. Now Lively will face a poor Cincinnati lineup that will be missing one of their best players for the foreseeable future. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez fractured his right thumb Sunday. He has two homers and seven RBIs in eight games this season. Lively was also drafted by the Reds, so he wants revenge on his former team.
Cody Reed has been awful as a big leaguer for the Reds. In 22 major league appearances (11 starts), Reed is 1-8 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.776 WHIP. Only one of his 12 outings last year came out of the bullpen. Reed went 0-2 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in spring training this season and it’s mind-blowing that he even has a spot in the rotation.
The Reds are 0-11 in Reed’s last 11 starts. Cincinnati is 23-50 in its last 73 road games. The Reds are 12-39 in their last 51 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Phillies are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Reds are 11-27 in their last 38 meetings in Philadelphia. Roll with the Phillies Monday.
|04-09-18||Tigers v. Indians -1.5||0-2||Win||100||6 h 12 m||Show|
15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-123)
The Cleveland Indians have a massive edge on the mound and at the plate tonight over the Detroit Tigers. Look for them to win this game by multiple runs. So instead of laying -270 on the run line, we’ll take the much more generous price of -123 on the run line tonight.
Corey Kluber is one of the Top 5 starters in baseball. He has gone 0-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.800 WHIP in two starts this season, and will be motivated to pick up his first victory tonight. Kluber owned the Tiger in his final three starts against them last year, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA while allowing just 2 earned runs in 22 innings.
Francisco Liriano is well past his prime and fortunate to still have a spot in a rotation somewhere. Liriano gave up 7 earned runs in 2 innings in his lone start against Cleveland last year. Look for the Indians to finally get their bats going tonight against Liriano.
The Tigers are 2-12 in their last 14 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Indians are 23-5 in their last 28 during Game 1 of a series. Cleveland is 36-15 in Kluber’s last 51 starts, and 24-9 in his last 33 home starts. Take the Indians on the Run Line Monday.
|04-08-18||Pistons -6.5 v. Grizzlies||117-130||Loss||-101||4 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -6.5
The Detroit Pistons are playing for more than pride. They want to see if they can get to .500 on the season as they are currently 38-41. They have put themselves in this position to consider this season a success by going 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The Memphis Grizzlies could care less about winning games right now as they just want the highest draft pick possible. They are 21-58 on the season. It’s obvious they are trying to lose when you just look at their injury report.
Mike Conley, Tyreke Evans, Wayne Selden, Marc Gasol, Chandler Parsons, Jarell Martin, JaMychal Green and Andrew Harrison are all expected to rest today. They are going to be sending a bunch of D League players out there for this one, purposely trying to lose.
Plays on road favorites (Detroit) - with a winning percentage between 40% and 49% on the season, on Sunday games are 33-6 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Pistons Sunday.
|04-08-18||Royals v. Indians -1.5||1-3||Win||100||4 h 7 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-110)
I fully expect the Cleveland Indians to bounce back from a 1-0 loss to the Royals yesterday with a win by two runs or more today. So instead of laying the -200 price on the money line, I’ll take the -1.5 run line.
Mike Clevinger is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in his lone start this season. He is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues. Clevinger is 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in four career starts against Kansas City.
Jason Hammel is 3-5 with a 5.37 ERA in 10 career starts against Cleveland. He gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings and 10 base runners in a 1-6 loss at Detroit in his first start this season for a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP.
Hammel is 1-17 in his last 18 games as an underdog of +175 to +250. His teams are losing by 3.5 runs per game on average in this spot. Bet the Indians on the Run Line.
|04-08-18||Pacers v. Hornets +2.5||Top||123-117||Loss||-108||4 h 15 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets +2.5
The Pacers are coming off a 73-92 loss at Toronto. That loss basically sealed their fate as they are now locked in to the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference. They would be better off resting their players and staying healthy for the playoffs now.
The Charlotte Hornets have played much better down the stretch and have won five of their last nine games, including a 137-100 win in Orlando last time out. They want to win their home finale here Sunday to give their home fans a lasting impression.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Hornets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Pacers, winning by 7, 12, 22 and 7 points, respectively. Bet the Hornets Sunday.
|04-07-18||Padres v. Astros -1.5||0-1||Loss||-130||10 h 43 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-130)
The Houston Astros are actually better on paper this season than the team that won the World Series last year. A big reason for that was the signing of Gerrit Cole, adding another No. 1 starter to an already loaded rotation.
Cole was sharp in his first start for the Astros. He allowed just one run and five base runners in 7 innings while striking out 11 in an 8-2 victory at Texas. The Astros are off to a hot start this year, going 6-2 with five of those wins coming by 3 runs or more.
The Padres are just 2-6 on the season, picking up a rare win in Game 1 yesterday that will have the Astros motivated to bounce back with a win today. And Bryan Mitchell, who gave up 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings of a 4-7 loss to Colorado in his first start this season, is in line to get rocked by this potent Houston lineup.
Houston is 22-7 after a game where it had 4 or fewer hits over the last three seasons. The Padres are 3-12 in their last 15 games overall. San Diego is 0-5 in its last five games following a win. Houston is 22-4 in its last 26 home games. The Astros are 30-12 in their last 42 vs. NL West opponents. Take the Astros on the Run Line Saturday.
|04-07-18||Nuggets -2 v. Clippers||Top||134-115||Win||100||6 h 8 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Saturday No-Brainer on Denver -2
The Denver Nuggets are 0.5 games out of 8th place in the West, and just one game behind three other teams listed 5th through 7th in the West. They still have a great shot to make the playoffs, but they are going to likely need to win out to get in.
The Nuggets have been doing their part as they are 4-0 in their last four games overall, beating four playoff teams in the Thunder, Bucks, Pacers and Timberwolves all in close fashion. Winning four straight close games the way they have has to have them oozing with confidence right now.
The Los Angeles Clippers had a shot to make the playoffs with a few weeks left, but now they are 2.5 games out with only 3 games remaining after going 1-3 in their last four games overall. The life has been sucked out of them, and I don’t expect them to show up at all today.
The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. The Clippers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 Saturday games. Los Angeles is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents. Denver is 38-17 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last three seasons. Bet the Nuggets Saturday.
|04-07-18||Tigers v. White Sox -101||6-1||Loss||-101||4 h 24 m||Show|
15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -102
The Chicago White Sox are certainly a sleeper in the AL Central this season. They have as much young talent as anyone in baseball, from their lineup through their rotation.
The Detroit Tigers are one of the worst teams in baseball this season. Their roster has been gutted, and they aren’t expecting to win this season. The Tigers are just 2-4 this season, while the White Sox are off to a 3-3 start.
Lucas Giolito is one of those young prospects for the White Sox. He pitched solid in his first start, giving up 3 earned runs in 6 innings of a 4-3 win at Kansas City. Giolito pitched 7 shutout innings in a 7-1 home victory over Detroit in his only career start against the Tigers last season.
Michael Fulmer has struggled in recent starts against the White Sox, giving up 3 earned runs or more in four of his five career starts against them. The Tigers are 1-7 in Fulmer’s last eight starts. Detroit is 0-4 in Fulmer’s last four road starts. Chicago is 4-0 in Giolito’s last four starts vs. AL Central opponents. Roll with the White Sox Saturday.
|04-06-18||Cubs -132 v. Brewers||4-5||Loss||-132||12 h 36 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -132
The Chicago Cubs got off to a slow start this season. Then they got two days off on Tuesday and Wednesday and came back with an 8-0 victory over the Brewers yesterday. They remain motivated and rested tonight.
The Cubs have a big advantage on the mound with Kyle Hendricks tonight. He is a Cy Young candidate year after year. Hendricks has gone 6-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in 15 career starts against Milwaukee.
Brandon Woodruff is 2-3 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.360 WHIP over eight career starts and two relief appearances. He is 0-0 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his lone career start against Chicago, giving up 4 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings.
The Cubs are 26-6 in their last 32 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Chicago is 6-1 in Hendricks’ last seven starts when working on 6 days of rest. The Brewers are 0-5 in Woodruff’s last five home starts. The Cubs are 6-1 in their last seven meetings in Milwaukee. Take the Cubs Friday.
|04-06-18||Bulls +10.5 v. Celtics||Top||104-111||Win||100||11 h 0 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls +10.5
The Boston Celtics just lost to the Toronto Raptors. It was a huge game for them as they entered just two games behind the Raptors. But after losing that game by 18, they are now essentially locked in to the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.
I don’t expect the Celtics to show up at all for this game. That’s going to make it tough for them to be able to cover this massive double-digit spread. They are banged up right now without Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart, and several others are nursing injuries.
The Bulls continue to play for pride and have been extremely undervalued over the past week. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They have pulled off three straight outright upsets, beating the Magic by 8 on the road as 6.5-point dogs, the Wizards by 17 at home as 7-point dogs and the Hornets at home by 6 as 5.5-point dogs.
Chicago is a perfect 11-0 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season. Boston is 4-15 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins 25% to 40% of their games over the last two years. Bet the Bulls Friday.
|04-06-18||Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9||7-3||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Yankees OVER 9
The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field at about 12 MPH today inside Yankee Stadium. That will help aid this OVER between the Yankees and Orioles.
Kevin Gausman is coming off a terrible season, and C.C. Sabathia is far past his prime. And both starters have struggled in recent starters against the opposition.
Sabathia is 0-0 with a 9.82 ERA in his last two starts against Baltimore, giving up 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 11 innings. Gausman is 0-2 with a 17.06 ERA in his last two starts against the Yankees, giving up 12 earned runs and 22 base runners in 6 1/3 innings.
The OVER is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in New York. The OVER is 5-0 in Gausman’s last five starts vs. New York. The OVER is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
|04-05-18||Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 225.5||Top||96-100||Win||100||15 h 19 m||Show|
20* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225.5
This game will have a playoff atmosphere Thursday night. The 8th place Timberwolves visit the 9th place Nuggets with only one game separating the two. Both teams are trying to secure a playoff spot, and you can bet the defensive intensity will be as high as any point this season from each squad.
I think this total has been inflated because Denver has played in some high-scoring affairs of late due to two overtime games in their last three. But their defense has been much better down the stretch as they’ve tried to hang on for a playoff spot, winning three straight nail biters.
This has certainly been an UNDER series. The Timberwolves and Nuggets have combined for 219 or fewer points in 13 of their last 14 meetings. The only exception was an overtime game. That makes for a sweet 13-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 225.5. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|04-05-18||Cubs -118 v. Brewers||8-0||Win||100||13 h 45 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -118
The Chicago Cubs are rested and ready to go tonight. They have had the last two days off and will be highly motivated to bounce back from two straight shutout losses. They have been chomping at the bit to get back on the diamond and make up for it.
The Milwaukee Brewers have already played six games and are coming off a shutout loss to the Cardinals yesterday. They’ll be giving the ball to Brent Suter, who only has 17 big league starts to his name and is certainly getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.
Jon Lester is also motivated following a poor start in Miami to open the season. Look for him to be much sharper in his second start. Lester is 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in six career starts against Milwaukee.
Chicago is 17-4 in road games off a loss by 2 runs or less over the last two seasons. It is coming back to win by 2.7 runs per game on average in this spot. The Cubs are 37-16 in their last 53 games following an off day. Chicago is 5-1 in its last six trips to Milwaukee, and 4-0 in Lester’s last four starts vs. Brewers. Take the Cubs Thursday.
|04-05-18||Mariners v. Twins UNDER 8.5||2-4||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Mariners/Twins UNDER 8.5
Weather conditions certainly favor the UNDER in Game 1 of this series between Seattle and Minnesota Thursday. It will be just 37 degrees out, so the ball won’t be carrying in this already pitcher-friendly Target Field.
James Paxton gets the ball for the Mariners. He is coming off the best season of his career, going 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 24 starts last year. Paxton is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.260 WHIP in three career starts against Minnesota.
Kyle Gibson pitched a gem to open the season. He fired 6 shutout innings in a 6-2 victory at Baltimore without allowing a single hit. Gibson also enjoys facing the Mariners, going 4-2 with a 3.49 ERA in eight career starts against them.
The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Paxton’s last seven road starts. The UNDER is 5-1 in Gibson’s last six starts vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Minnesota. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|04-04-18||Rangers v. A's UNDER 9||2-6||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/A’s UNDER 9
Two underrated starting pitchers square off tonight when Sean Manaea takes on Doug Fister in Game 3 of this series between the A’s and Rangers. Look for a low-scoring, pitcher’s duel tonight folks.
Sister gave up just one earned run in 5 innings for a 1.80 ERA in his first start of the season against the Astros. That was an impressive outing against arguably the best lineup in baseball. Sister is 8-8 with a 3.30 ERA in 20 career starts against the A’s.
Manaea pitched 7 2/3 innings while allowing just one run and four base runners for a 1.17 ERA and 0.522 WHIP in his first start of the season against the Angels, a 1-2 loss. Manaea is 3-2 with a 3.98 ERA in seven career starts against Texas. He won his final two starts against the Rangers last year, allowing just 2 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings.
The UNDER is 6-0 in Rangers last six road games. The UNDER is 6-0 in A’s last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .600. The UNDER is 5-1 in Manaea’s last six starts overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Oakland. The UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|04-04-18||Heat v. Hawks UNDER 205.5||Top||115-86||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Hawks UNDER 205.5
This is one of my favorite UNDER situations in the NBA. The Hawks and Heat will be playing a home-and-home tonight after Miami beat Atlanta 101-98 for 199 combined points last night. Now they will travel to play in Atlanta just one night later.
Teams are obviously very familiar with one another when having to play two days in a row, which certainly favors defense. And with a total now set at 205.5, it’s simply too high.
The Heat have Hassan Whiteside back healthy, and he’s one of the top defensive centers in the NBA. For the Hawks, they recently lost starting PG Dennis Schroeder to a season-ending injury. He was basically their entire offense, so without him they have been lost.
The UNDER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in this series. The Heat and Hawks have combined for 199 or fewer points in 10 of those 13 matchups. Miami is 9-1 UNDER in road games off a win by 3 points or less over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 22-7 in Hawks last 29 games following an ATS win. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|04-04-18||Mariners v. Giants -125||1-10||Win||100||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -125
Johnny Cueto pitched an absolute gem to open the season and lead the Giants to a 1-0 victory over the Dodgers. He pitched 7 shutout innings while allowing just one hit without a walk. Look for him to pick up right where he left off.
Felix Hernandez was effective in his only start against the Indians, pitching 5 2/3 shutout innings. But I believe Hernandez is much harder to trust than Cueto. Hernandez has fallen off in recent years, going 6-5 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.292 WHIP last season. He is only a shell of his former self now.
The Giants will be motivated after losing Game 1 to the Mariners as well. The Giants are 13-4 in home games off a loss by 2 runs or less over the last two seasons. San Francisco is 24-6 in Cueto’s last 30 starts when working on 4 days of rest. Take the Giants Wednesday.
|04-03-18||Pacers v. Nuggets -3||Top||104-107||Push||0||9 h 40 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -3
The Denver Nuggets are two games out of the playoffs with five games remaining. They have no margin for error right now. They are coming off back-to-back impressive wins at Oklahoma City and at home against Milwaukee to give themselves a shot.
The Indiana Pacers are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 5-0 in their last five games overall. But they will be running out of gas soon as this will be their fourth consecutive road games in a stretch of six of seven on the road.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings. Denver is a perfect 8-0 SU in its last eight home meetings with Indiana. The Nuggets have a great home-court advantage this season as they are 28-10 on their home floor.
Indiana is 5-15 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. The Nuggets are 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings inside the Pepsi Center. Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.
|04-03-18||Warriors v. Thunder -4.5||111-107||Loss||-105||8 h 40 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Thunder TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4.5
The Golden State Warriors are locked in to the No. 2 seed in the West. They have nothing to play for the rest of the way and cannot be trusted. The Warriors are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
Injuries and a lack of motivation have been the biggest reasons for the Warriors’ struggles down the stretch. They are still without Steph Curry, Andre Iguodala and Omri Casspi, and they recently lost Patrick McCaw to a gruesome back injury. Meanwhile, the Thunder are at full strength.
Oklahoma City still has a lot to play for with four games remaining. The Thunder are currently 5th in the West, just 0.5 games behind the Spurs for the No. 4 seed. They want that No. 4 so that they can get home-court advantage in the first round. And they are also just one game clear of Utah and Minnesota, so they don’t want to fall further in the standings and have to play either Golden State or Houston in the first round.
Golden State is 1-11 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) in the second half of the season this season. The Warriors are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win. Oklahoma City is 41-19-3 ATS in its last 63 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Take the Thunder Tuesday.
|04-03-18||Red Sox -1.5 v. Marlins||4-2||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-125)
I’ll continue fading the Miami Marlins on the Run Line. They are the worst team in baseball and it will be a profitable move to fade them on the Run Line all season. The Red Sox are one of the best teams in baseball and are off to a 4-1 start this season.
Miami will be up against one of the Top 5 best starters in the game in Chris Sale. Sale dominated in his first start, pitching six shutout innings while striking out nine batters against Tampa Bay. He will shut down this weak Miami lineup.
Jose Urena was roughed up in his first start for the Marlins, giving up 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 10 base runners in 4 innings in a 4-8 loss to the Cubs. He hasn’t fared well in his big league career, and he’s up against it here against this potent Red Sox lineup.
Boston is 17-4 in interleague games over the last two seasons, winning by 1.5 runs per game. The Red Sox are 20-3 in Tuesday games over the last two years, winning by 3.1 runs per game. Boston is 6-0 in Sale’s last six road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Marlins are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter. Miami is 1-5 in Urena’s last six starts vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Tuesday.
|04-02-18||Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +104||7-8||Win||104||8 h 17 m||Show|
15* Dodgers/Diamondbacks NL West ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +104
The Arizona Diamondbacks want to make a statement in this series with the Los Angeles Dodgers. They want to let the Dodgers know that they will compete for an NL West title this year. It starts with Game 1 tonight in Arizona.
The Diamondbacks certainly have the better starter on the mound in Taijuan Walker, who went 9-10 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in 29 starts last year. He’ll be opposed by Hyun-Jin Ryu, who went 5-9 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.386 WHIP in 24 starts last season. Ryu gave up 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 innings in his only start at Arizona last year.
Ryu is 1-10 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over over the last two seasons. The Dodgers are 4-11 in Ryu’s last 15 road starts. Los Angeles is 0-5 in Ryu’s last five starts overall. The Arizona is 20-6 in its last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Diamondbacks Monday.
|04-02-18||Michigan v. Villanova -7||Top||62-79||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
20* Michigan/Villanova Championship Game No-Brainer on Villanova -7
The Michigan Wolverines have had the easiest path to the Championship Game of nearly any team in NCAA Tournament history. They haven’t had to face a 5 seed or lower in their entire path to the Final Four. They’ve faced a 14, No. 6, No. 7, No. 9 and a No. 11 on their route here.
Certainly, the Wolverines have been impressive, but now they have finally met their match in Villanova. I don’t remember seeing a team quite as dominant as these Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament. They have beaten all five opponents by 12 points or more and by an average of 17.8 points per game.
The Wildcats have no weaknesses. They are an elite defensive team, and they are the most efficient offensive team in the country. They set a Final Four record by making 18 shots from beyond the 3-point line against Kansas. But they can beat you inside and out. It’s not a team I want to be fading with the title on the line.
Villanova is 25-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Wildcats are 14-3 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots this season. Villanova is 53-21-1 ATS in its last 75 non-conference games. The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Villanova Monday.
|04-01-18||Bucks v. Nuggets -4||Top||125-128||Loss||-108||9 h 24 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -4
The Denver Nuggets are in must-win mode with six games remaining. They trail 7th and 8th place Utah and Minnesota by exactly two games each for a playoff spot. They almost need to win out to get in, and with four of their final six games at home, they have a shot.
The Nuggets have played well at home all season. They are 27-10 on their home floor. And they just beat Milwaukee 134-123 on the road on February 15th in their first meeting this season. The Nuggets are now 5-1 SU in their last six meetings with the Bucks. They are also 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings.
The Bucks are just 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games overall. They don’t have much to play for the rest of the way except for seeding, which doesn’t make that much of a difference between the 6th, 7th and 8th seeds in the East. And the Bucks have some key injuries right now with Malcolm Brogdon and Matthew Dellavedova out, Thon Maker doubtful and John Henson questionable.
Milwaukee is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record. Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Nuggets are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with the Bucks. Bet the Nuggets Sunday.
|04-01-18||Pacers v. Clippers -2.5||111-104||Loss||-115||5 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -2.5
The Los Angeles Clippers are in must-win mode with six games remaining. They trail 7th and 8th place Utah and Minnesota by exactly two games each for a playoff spot. They will certainly need to finish strong to get in, and with five of their final six games at home they have a great shot.
The Clippers have won four of their last six coming in. That includes upset road wins at Milwaukee and Toronto. Their only two losses came on the road at Portland and at Indiana in closely-contested battles.
That sets the Clippers up for a revenge game here after losing 104-109 in Indiana on March 23rd just a week ago. They don’t have to wait long for their shot at revenge, which only adds to their motivation here tonight.
The Clippers are 10-2 ATS when playing eight or more games in 14 days this season. The Pacers are 5-15 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two years. Los Angeles is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the Clippers Sunday.
|04-01-18||Cubs -1.5 v. Marlins||0-6||Loss||-120||2 h 58 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-120)
I’ve stated before already this season that I believe you can fade the Marlins on the Run Line every game and make money. They are far and away the worst team in baseball, and that will show over the course of a 162-game season.
After getting a taste of the playoffs last year with Chicago, Jose Quintana wants more. He went 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA in 14 starts with the Cubs. He struck out 10.5 batters per 9 innings with the Cubs as well.
Dillon Peters was in the minors last year when he got hurt fielding a ground ball. He had to rehab his fractured thumb for three months. And he wasn’t very effective when healthy, going 1-2 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.627 WHIP in six starts for the Marlins last year.
The Cubs are 7-2 in Quintana’s last nine starts, including 4-0 in his last four starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Marlins are 1-7 in their last eight games vs. a left-handed starter. Miami is 1-7 in its last eight during Game 4 of a series. The Marlins are 0-5 in their last five Sunday games. Roll with the Cubs on the Run Line Sunday.
|03-31-18||Warriors v. Kings +8.5||112-96||Loss||-105||10 h 28 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +8.5
The Golden State Warriors are a mess right now. They have too many injuries they are dealing with, and they don’t care about winning games because they are locked in to the No. 2 seed. They are simply playing out the string at this point.
That’s why they cannot be 8.5-point road favorites against the Sacramento Kings tonight. The Warriors are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games. They are also just 3-7 SU in their last 10 games. They have gotten some guys healthier of late, but they are far from full strength.
The Kings have already upset the short-handed Warriors twice this season. They Kings won 110-106 as 12.5-point road underdogs on November 27th, and they won 98-93 as 8.5-point road dogs on March 16th.
The Warriors are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games when playing on one days’ rest. Golden State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 when its opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Kings are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % greater than .600. The Warriors are 11-26 ATS in their last 37 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take the Kings Saturday.
|03-31-18||Kansas v. Villanova UNDER 155||Top||79-95||Loss||-110||30 h 59 m||Show|
25* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Kansas/Villanova UNDER 155
Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high in this Final Four matchup between Villanova and Kansas. They are expecting an 80-75 final, and I’m just not seeing it. This bet on the UNDER is my favorite totals bet of the entire NCAA Tournament.
Villanova is an elite defensive team that gives up just 70.2 points per game and 42.7% shooting on the season, including only 32.2% from 3-point range. Kansas only gives up 71.3 points per game on 42.3% shooting on the year, including 32.7% from 3-point range.
I think a big reason this total has been set so high is because Kansas went over against Duke last game in an 85-81 final in overtime. But that game was only 72-72 at the end of regulation for 144 combined points, and Duke is an elite offensive team. Having Azabuike back healthy has done wonders for this KU team defensively as he’s an elite shot blocker and rebounder.
No question Villanova is a very good offensive team, but even they will struggle to reach 80 points against Kansas. Villanova has allowed 68 or fewer points in five of its last six games coming in, including just 59 against Texas Tech last time out.
I think both teams having nearly a week to prepare for each other also favors the UNDER. These are two elite head coaches who will have their defenses prepared to stop the strengths of the opposing offenses. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|03-31-18||Cubs -1.5 v. Marlins||10-6||Win||100||8 h 34 m||Show|
15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-125)
I’m of the belief that if you fade the fade the Marlins on the run line all season you will win money. That’s especially the case when they are at home and you’re getting cheaper run line prices on the road teams.
The Marlins have the worst roster in baseball, and it’s not even close. Derek Jeter and company gutted the roster and basically got rid of all their best players. It’s going to be a long season in Miami.
Yu Darvish will be highly motivated to prove that the Cubs made the right move getting him this offseason. He also wants to erase the sour taste out of his mouth from the World Series with the Dodgers. Darvish 8-5 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in road games last year.
Chicago is 16-2 when revenging a one run loss over the last two seasons. It is coming back to win by 2.8 runs per game on average in this spot. Roll with the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday.
|03-31-18||Red Sox -132 v. Rays||3-2||Win||100||7 h 34 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -132
The Tampa Bay Rays already have to play the bullpen game because they lost three starters to elbow injuries since February. They will give the ball Andrew Kittredge, who will be making his first major league start and will try to throw as many innings as possible. He pitched in relief in 15 games last year.
Rick Porcello didn’t follow up his brilliant 2016 campaign with a very good season last year. He’ll be motivated to redeem himself, starting with his first outing of the year here against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Porcello did pitch his best on the road last season, compiling a 3.67 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in 14 starts away from home. And Porcello is 12-8 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in 23 career starts against the Rays. He has allowed just 5 earned runs over 26 1/3 innings for a 1.71 ERA in his last four starts against Tampa Bay.
The Red Sox are 5–0 in their last five during Game 3 of a series. Boston is 4-0 in Porcello’s last four road starts. Tampa Bay is 2-9 in its last 11 Saturday games. Boston is 6-2 in Porcello’s last eight starts vs. Tampa Bay. Bet the Red Sox Saturday.
|03-31-18||Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5||57-69||Win||100||27 h 19 m||Show|
15* Loyola/Michigan Final Four No-Brainer on Michigan -5
I’ve been backing both Loyola and Michigan this entire NCAA Tournament with regularity. It has worked out very well for me. But when push comes to shove here, I have to side with Michigan for a number of reasons.
Four starters, an 11-seed or lower has never made the Championship Game. It has been a great run for Loyola, but they will finally meet their match here in Michigan.
The Wolverines are the hottest team left, going 13-0 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They have beaten Purdue by 9, Michigan State by 11 and Ohio State by 12 prior to the tournament. They have handled their business with relative ease in the NCAA Tournament with the exception of a tougher-than-expected game against Houston.
Loyola has been winning with smoke and mirrors, admittedly. They were fortunate to win their first three games by a combined 4 points, including two buzzer-beaters. And they were fortunate for an easy path. They got to face Nevada in the Sweet 16 and Kansas State in the Elite 8 because of all the madness in that region.
Michigan is a different animal. The Wolverines are legitimately a top defensive team in the country. They give up just 63.1 points per game on 42.4% shooting. And I love the matchup for them against Loyola’s barrage of 3-point shooters.
Michigan only allowed 5 made 3-pointers per game and only 16 attempts per game on 33.1% shooting. They run their opponents off the 3-point line. You have to be able to penetrate to beat them, and Loyola doesn’t have those penetrators. They are more of a passing team to find their shots, but Michigan will be ready for it.
The Wolverines are 7-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Ramblers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents. The Wolverines are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Michigan is 35-17-4 ATS in its last 56 neutral site games. Take Michigan Saturday.
|03-30-18||Clippers +6.5 v. Blazers||Top||96-105||Loss||-109||10 h 43 m||Show|
25* Clippers/Blazers ESPN GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles +6.5
The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly making a push toward the playoffs. They are now just one game behind the Utah Jazz for the 8th and final spot in the Western Conference. They have seven games remaining, and you can bet Doc Rivers’ team will be laying it all on the line.
The Clippers have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Their two most impressive wins both came on the road as they won 127-120 as 6-point underdogs at Milwaukee and 117-106 as 8.5-point dogs at Toronto. They are more than capable of pulling off the upset here, let alone staying within 6.5 points.
The Portland Trail Blazers don’t have a whole lot to play for the rest of the way. They are stuck in 3rd place, 2.5 games ahead of 4th place. That’s why it wouldn’t be surprising if Damian Lillard sits a second consecutive game tonight for personal reasons. The Blazers are already without starter Maurice Harkless, and Lillard is questionable.
The Clippers want revenge from a 122-109 home loss to the Blazers on March 18th less than two weeks ago as well. Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series of late as the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
The Clippers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games. Los Angeles is 8-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent this season. The Clippers are 7-0 ATS in road games after covering three of their last four this season. Los Angeles is 10-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Bet the Clippers Friday.
|03-30-18||Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 197||97-107||Loss||-102||9 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 197
The Utah Jazz will be laying it all on the line defensively tonight to get a win. They are in 8th place, but just one game ahead of the Clippers. They will be locked in on the defensive end, and defense has been their staple all season.
But what I really like about this UNDER is the recent head-to-head history between Memphis and Utah. These teams always seem to play in low-scoring affairs when they get together.
Indeed, the UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings. The Jazz and Grizzlies have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last 20 meetings. They have combined for 197 or fewer in 18 of those 20. That’s an 18-2 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 197.
Memphis is 10-1 UNDER in Friday games this season. The UNDER is 8-1 in Grizzlies last nine vs. Western Conference teams. The UNDER is 5-1 in Jazz last six home games. The UNDER is 8-2 in Jazz last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|03-30-18||Cubs -1.5 v. Marlins||1-2||Loss||-120||7 h 33 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-120)
The Miami Marlins are the worst team in baseball, period. It will be a profitable move to fade them on the run line all season. They have the worst lineup in baseball, and their starting rotation leaves a lot to be desired as well.
The Cubs have a big edge on the mount with Kyle Hendricks, who has posted a 2.94 ERA over four major league seasons, going 16-8 with a 2.13 ERA in 2016. In his final 16 starts last year, he allowed on or fewer runs in eight of them.
Rookie left-hander Caleb Smith will make his Marlins debut after being acquired from the Yankees on Nov. 20. Smith is a 16th-round pick out of Sam Houston State. He only has nine games of big league experience. That includes two starts and a 7.71 ERA last year.
Joe Maddon is 96-47 as a road favorite of -125 or more as the coach of the Cubs. They are winning by 2.0 runs per game on average in this spot. Chicago is 13-6 in Hendricks’ last 19 road starts. Miami is 1-10 in its last 11 vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.
|03-29-18||Wizards v. Pistons +1.5||Top||92-103||Win||102||8 h 46 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +1.5
The return of starting PG Reggie Jackson to the lineup has sparked the Pistons. They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Jackson played in each of the last four games. They beat the Kings by 16, the Suns by 27, the Bulls by 22 and the Lakers by 6, so not only are they winning, they are dominating. Their only loss came at Houston by 4 as 10.5-point underdogs.
The Wizards are just kind of going through the motions right now. It’s like they are trying to get the No. 7 seed, which would be smart of them because they’d face the injury-ravaged Celtics in the first round if they can get there. They are only 1.5 games ahead of 7th place Miami and would be better off losing this one.
The Wizards are just 5-8 SU & 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall. John Wall is questionable to return tonight, and even if he does return he’ll be rusty and play limited minutes. With the way the Pistons are playing right now, they are good enough to beat Washington regardless of Wall’s status. And they want revenge to avoid the season sweep after losing each of their first three meetings to the Wizards this year.
Plays on home favorites (Detroit) - revenging two consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite, who are off two or more consecutive home wins are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996. The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the Pistons Thursday.
|03-29-18||Penn State v. Utah +4||82-66||Loss||-105||8 h 45 m||Show|
15* Penn State/Utah NIT ANNIHILATOR on Utah +4
I’ve been riding the Utah Utes hard toward the end of the season and I’m not about to stop now. Especially with them showing so much value as 4-point underdogs to the Penn State Nittany Lions in the NIT Championship Game.
The Utes are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall. They are also 11-4-1 ATS int heir last 16 games. Four of their last five wins have come by double-digits, with the exception of their gutsy 69-64 victory over a game Western Kentucky team in the Semifinals.
And the Utes got to play the early game on Tuesday, so they were able to come back out to the court and watch Penn State and scout them. I think that’s a huge advantage for the team that played the early game in these types of situations where there is only one day in between games. The Utes will be the more prepared team because of it.
The Utes are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a win. Penn State is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games after having covered six or seven of its last eight games coming in. The Nittany Lions are being overvalued tonight. Roll with Utah Thursday.
|03-29-18||Red Sox -154 v. Rays||Top||4-6||Loss||-154||5 h 41 m||Show|
20* 2018 MLB Season Opener on Boston Red Sox -154
There are seven great teams in MLB and basically everyone else after. The Red Sox are among those seven with one of the best lineups in baseball and a solid rotation, led by Ace Chris Sale who gets the ball on Opening Day.
Sale went 17-9 with a 3.12 ERA and 0.994 WHIP with 314 strikeouts last season. Sale is 8-5 with a 3.28 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in 14 career starts against Tampa Bay. He’ll be opposed by Chris Archer, who always gets worked by the Red Sox, going 2-12 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in 19 career starts against them.
This Rays’ lineup is atrocious. They got rid of arguably their three best hitters from last season in Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison and Corey Dickerson. What’s left over is a pile of garbage, and Sale should have his way tonight.
The Red Sox are 5-1 in Sale’s last six starts vs. Tampa Bay. The Rays are 3-11 in Archer’s last 14 starts vs. Boston. Bet the Red Sox Thursday.