|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-21-20||Clippers v. Mavs -1.5||Top||110-107||Loss||-105||9 h 41 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Mavs NBA TV No-Brainer on Dallas -1.5
Kristaps Porzingis has missed the last 10 games for the Mavericks. There’s a great chance he returns tonight. The timing makes sense as the Mavericks come in on three days’ rest after last playing on Friday, giving Porzingis a few extra days to heal.
The Mavericks have been playing well without him in going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. And now they want revenge from a 99-114 loss to the Clippers in their first meeting this season. The Mavericks have gone 31-12 SU in their last 43 home meetings with the Clippers.
Los Angeles will remain without Paul George tonight. The Clippers haven’t exactly been juggernauts on the road this season. They are 11-9 SU but 9-11 ATS. And while they’ve won five of their last six coming in, the five wins have all come against teams with losing records in the Knicks (by 3), Warriors (by 9), Cavaliers, Magic and Pelicans (by 3). The Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Dallas is 17-5 ATS off a home game this season. Los Angeles is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games off a win. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Clippers. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.
|01-21-20||Illinois v. Purdue -5.5||79-62||Loss||-109||7 h 59 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Purdue -5.5
This is a great spot to back the Purdue Boilermakers. They are highly motivated for a win after losing three of their last four, and they want revenge from a 37-63 loss at Illinois in which they couldn’t make anything, shooting 25% as a team and 3-of-17 from 3-point range.
But all three of those losses came on the road. Purdue has won 15 straight Big Ten home games dating back to February 2018. They have won six straight home games against ranked teams. They are 8-1 at home this season including wins over Michigan State by 29 and Virginia by 29.
No. 21 Illinois is starting to get some love from oddsmakers after winning four straight and moving into the Top 25 for the first time this season. But they were fortunate to win their last three, beating Wisconsin by 1 on the road, and Rutgers by 3 and Northwestern by 4 at home. Their luck runs out tonight against a hungry Boilermakers squad.
Purdue is 9-2 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons. Purdue is 7-0 SU in its last six home meetings with Illinois winning by 12.1 points per game on average. The Boilermakers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. Purdue is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Purdue Tuesday.
|01-21-20||Kansas State +17 v. Kansas||60-81||Loss||-110||6 h 15 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +17
This number has gotten out of control for a rivalry game between Kansas and Kansas State. I’ll gladly side with the road underdog Wildcats in what should be a defensive battle with limited possessions and that favors the big road dog.
The Wildcats are 8-9 this season and undervalued because of their record. But keep in mind they have six losses by 8 points or fewer. All nine losses have come by 14 points or less as well, so they haven’t lost by a margin this big all season. And they’re coming off a huge confidence-building 84-68 upset of West Virginia as 7-point dogs.
West Virginia took Kansas to the wire in a 53-60 road loss at 10-point dogs. Baylor won outright at Kansas by 12 as 7.5-point dogs. Those were the Jayhawks’ last two home games. They are actually playing better on the road than at home this season. They’ve consistently been overvalued at home.
Each of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by 16 points or less, making for a 7-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 17-point spread. The Wildcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. Kansas State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off an upset win by 15 points or more as an underdog. Roll with Kansas State Tuesday.
|01-20-20||Warriors +6.5 v. Blazers||124-129||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +6.5
The Golden State Warriors have been much more competitive here of late. They have recent losses to the Bucks and Clippers by single digits as double-digit dogs. They upset the Magic last time out as 6-point dogs and they took the Nuggets to overtime as dog.
I think the Warriors can hang with a depleted Portland Trail Blazers team that is missing Nurkic, Hood, Collins, Labissiere, McCollum and Ariza. These injuries are a big reason the Blazers are just 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. And it’s a tired Blazers team that hasn’t has two consecutive days off since Christmas, making matters worse.
The Warriors are 20-9 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last two seasons. The Blazers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Portland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games off a loss. Take the Warriors Monday.
|01-20-20||Oklahoma +10 v. Baylor||Top||57-61||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
20* Oklahoma/Baylor ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma +10
The No. 1 ranked Baylor Bears have won 14 straight to improve to 15-1 on the season. They have started 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in Big 12 play as well. With all this success comes expectations from oddsmakers that are hard to live up to, and thus we’ll ’sell high’ on the Bears.
Baylor had no business covering against Oklahoma State on Saturday. They trailed the entire way against a Cowboys team that had previously been 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in Big 12 play with blowout loss after blowout loss. But they pulled away in the closing minutes to win 75-68 and covered as 5.5-point favorites.
Oklahoma has opened 3-2 in Big 12 play with an impressive upset win at Texas by 10 as 3-point underdogs. They blew out TCU 83-63 at home on Saturday and should still be fresh for this game against Baylor because of it. The Sooners are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall, though, so I think this is a good opportunity to ‘buy low’ on them.
Plays on road dogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Oklahoma) off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference opponent against a team that is off two straight conference wins are 59-28 (67.8%) ATS since 1997. The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet Oklahoma Monday.
|01-20-20||Pelicans v. Grizzlies -2.5||Top||126-116||Loss||-109||5 h 5 m||Show|
20* Pelicans/Grizzlies TNT No-Brainer on Memphis -2.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They are playing their best basketball of the season as they’ve upset the likes of the Clippers by 26 on the road as well as the Spurs by 13 and the Rockets by 11 at home during this stretch.
It’s going to be a great atmosphere on Martin Luther King Day in this home game against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. No city celebrates MLK day quite like Memphis does as it means a lot more to their community than most with his assassination taking place in Memphis.
The Pelicans are also playing well, but this is a very tough spot for them. They are coming off an OT win against the Jazz followed by a 3-point loss to the Clippers at home. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Grizzlies, who are playing on two days’ rest and just their 2nd game in 6 days.
Memphis is 8-0 ATS off two straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots over the last two seasons. The Pelicans, who ranks 29th in scoring defense at 117.7 points per game, won’t be able to cool off the Grizzlies tonight. Bet the Grizzlies Monday.
|01-20-20||Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 230||112-107||Win||100||5 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Rockets UNDER 230
There is definitely some bad blood between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets due to the teams swapping Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul in the offseason. That bad blood shows more with the effort on the defensive end than anything.
The Thunder and Rockets have played twice this season already, so they are very familiar with one another. And both games went UNDER this 230-point total with a 116-112 final in the first meeting for 228 combined points and a 113-92 final in the 2nd meeting for 205 combined points.
In fact, 13 of the last 14 meetings between the Thunder and Rockets have resulted in 229 or fewer combined points. That makes for a 13-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s 230-point total. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
|01-20-20||Magic v. Hornets +4.5||106-83||Loss||-109||5 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +4.5
The Charlotte Hornets are highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost six straight coming in against a brutal schedule with home games against the Pacers and Raptors, as well as four road games against the Jazz, Nuggets, Blazers & Suns.
Not to mention, the Hornets had road games against the Cavs and Mavericks in the two games prior where they pulled off two upsets. They get a break in their schedule here hosting the Orlando Magic and coming in on four days’ rest having last played on January 15th.
The Magic are in a very tough spot. They will be playing their 6th straight road game tonight and their 4th road game in 6 days. They are without starting PG D.J. Augustin right now while the Hornets are fully healthy. I really believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup.
The Hornets simply own the Magic. Charlotte is 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS in its last 15 meetings with Orlando. The Hornets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Hornets Monday.
|01-19-20||Packers v. 49ers -7||Top||20-37||Win||100||149 h 53 m||Show|
20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -7
I’ve been riding the San Francisco 49ers all season after picking up on the fact that they are the best team in the NFL. No team has put up better numbers on both sides of the ball than they have, and the numbers haven’t lied. They are 14-3 this season with all three losses coming on the final play of the game. That’s how close they are to being 17-0.
The reason I say the 49ers are the best team in the NFL is because they are the only team that is Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense. The 49ers were 4th in the regular season in total offense at 381.1 yards per game while also scoring 29.9 points per game, which ranked 2nd in the NFL. The 49ers were 2nd in the NFL in total defense during the regular season, giving up 281.8 yards per game and only 19.4 points per game.
The 49ers have been an immovable object when Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander have been on the field at the same time defensively. Opposing quarterbacks had a QBR of 3 during the regular season in this situation. And the 49ers returned Ford, Alexander and also Jaquisky Tartt last week from injuries. That trio played a big role in limiting the Vikings to just 10 points, 7 first downs and 147 total yards. They are back to being the best defense in the NFL when healthy now, which is a scary proposition for the Packers.
After all, the 49ers already showed what they could do against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers when their defense was healthy in a 37-8 home win earlier this season. They held the Packers to just 8 points and 198 total yards. They held Rodgers to just 3.2 yards per attempt passing as he went 20-of-33 for 104 yards. No team has shut down Rodgers like the 49ers did in that game.
Both teams are 14-3, but there’s a huge difference between them statistically. The 49ers outgained their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game during the regular season. The Packers were 18th in total offense at 345.5 yards per game and 18th in total defense at 352.6 yards per game. They were actually outgained by 7.1 yards per game during the regular season, which is the sign of a below .500 team rather than one that is 14-3. They were simply fortunate in close games all season as they went a ridiculous 9-1 in one-score games. Their luck runs out this week as this game won’t be close.
I expect the 49ers to shut down the Packers, and I also expect Jimmy G and the 49ers rushing attack to do whatever they want against this Packers' defense. The Packers are in trouble defensively because they can’t stop the run. They ranked 24th in the NFL in giving up 4.7 rushing yards per carry in the regular season. The 49ers had the 2nd-best rushing attack in the league at 144.1 yards per game. Green Bay has also allowed touchdowns in the red zone on 83% of opponents’ opportunities the last three weeks. Seattle scored all three times it got into the red zone last week.
The 49ers are 14-3 but nine of those wins have come by 9 points or more, so they have hard no problem getting margin this season. They are outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game at home this year. The Packers have been outgained by 34.1 yards per game on the road this season and are averaging just 21.4 points and 305.1 yards per game on the highway. They won’t be able to keep up with the 49ers, who are better across the board on both sides of the football.
Plays against road underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 40-17 (70.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The fraudulent Packers will be exposed by the best team in the NFL for a second time this season. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better. A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick. And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games. It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!
|01-19-20||Heat v. Spurs +1.5||Top||102-107||Win||100||5 h 50 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs +1.5
I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight. They want revenge from a 100-106 loss at Miami just a few days ago on January 15th. Now they get their chance at revenge just four days later at home this time around.
Adding to the Spurs’ motivation is the fact that they are coming off a 120-121 home loss to the Hawks in which they blew a 15-point lead in the 4th quarter. They had been playing some great basketball prior to those two games in going 9-4 ATS in their previous 13 games.
San Antonio is 32-8 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last two season. The Spurs are 9-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road favorites. San Antonio is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a loss. The Spurs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as home underdogs. Roll with the Spurs Sunday.
|01-19-20||Titans v. Chiefs -7||24-35||Win||100||88 h 34 m||Show|
15* Titans/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -7
I’ve been riding the Tennessee Titans since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. They’ve made me a lot of money down the stretch, including in each of their first two playoff games with upset wins over the Patriots and Ravens. It pains me to go against them now, but I have to do it because I see this game playing out totally differently. The Chiefs are going to roll in the AFC Championship.
The Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL when healthy and it’s not really even close. That showed last week when they erased a 24-0 deficit in one half and took a 28-24 lead by halftime against the Texans. They went on to win 51-31 as double-digit favorites. Now they are only laying 7 points here to Tennessee compared to the 10 they were laying against Houston. So I think there’s some value here.
Tennessee because the first team in NFL history to get outgained by 230-plus yards and win a playoff game last week. They gave up 530 yards to the Ravens and only gained 300 last week, yet still managed to win 28-12. That is a complete fluke. Baltimore lsat the turnover battle 3-0 and was stopped on 4th down four times. That’s essentially seven turnovers. It’s one of the most misleading finals in the history of the NFL.
Speaking of misleading, the Titans also beat the Chiefs 35-32 at home in their first meeting this season despite not having any business winning that game either. The Chiefs had a 530 to 371 yard edge and a 28-19 edge in first downs in that game. And it was the first game back for Patrick Mahomes from injury. If the Chiefs approach anywhere near 530 yards again, they are going to win in a blowout.
Derrick Henry is a beast and certainly a concern. But I have a good feeling the Chiefs are going to be leading the whole way in this game and make Henry a non-factor. This game is going to come down to whether or not Ryan Tannehill can match Mahomes score for score. And while I’ve praised Tannehill a lot this season and think he’s underrated, not even he can match Mahomes score for score. Deshaun Watson couldn’t do it last week, and Tannehill won’t be able to do it this week.
The Chiefs are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, winning by an average of 17 points per game and covering by an average of 10 points per game. The tough spot for the Titans won’t allow them to hang around, either. They will be playing their 4th straight road game. The last five teams to be playing their 4th straight road game in the NFL have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS. And they just played two physical wars against the Patriots and Ravens the last two weeks, which will have taken a lot out of them.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - off two consecutive road wins, winning between 60% & 75% of their games on the season are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas City) - after playing a home game against an opponent that’s off a two-game road trip are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Titans are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games with a total of 49.5 or higher. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better. A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick. And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games. It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!
|01-18-20||Kings +9.5 v. Jazz||Top||101-123||Loss||-104||19 h 57 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +9.5
The Utah Jazz had their 10-game winning streak come to an end with a 132-138 (OT) loss at New Orleans on Thursday. I always like fading teams that have their long winning streaks come to an end because it’s the kind of loss that seems to beat them twice. They take a breathe of air and don’t play well in the next game out.
While it is impressive that the Jazz have won 15 of their last 17 games overall, keep in mind it has come against one of the easiest schedules in the NBA. In fact, 14 of those 15 wins came against teams with losing records. Now they are way overvalued and it’s time to ’sell high’ on them.
The Jazz would have to beat the Kings by double-digits to beat us now, which is asking way too much. Especially since the Kings are almost back to 100% health with only Richaun Holmes still sidelined. They get Bogdan Bogdanovic back from an injury Saturday and recently got back Marvin Bagley and a few others. The Kings will be a dangerous team moving forward.
The Jazz have to be a tired team as they haven’t had two days off in a row since over New Year’s Eve. And they are coming off a three-game road trip. The Kings will be playing just their 4th game in 11 days and will be by far the fresher team tonight.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - a hot team having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Kings are 15-5 ATS when playing 4 or fewer games in 10 days over the last two seasons. Sacramento is 24-9 ATS after losing three of its last four games over the last two seasons. The Kings are 12-3 ATS in road games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two years. Sacramento is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%. The Kings are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs. Sacramento is 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 meetings in Utah. Take the Kings Saturday.
|01-18-20||Temple v. SMU -5||52-68||Win||100||18 h 50 m||Show|
15* Temple/SMU ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on SMU -5
The SMU Mustangs are coming off two straight road losses to East Carolina and Houston. Now they are back home and highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Temple Owls. I love the spot for the Mustangs tonight.
SMU has one of the biggest home/road splits in the country in recent seasons. They have a tremendous home-court advantage as they are 9-1 at home this season and winning by 13.3 points per game.
Temple is in a letdown spot off its upset home win over Wichita State as 4-point dogs. After all, the Owls were 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games. They lost by 14 as 9-point home favorites over Tulane, by 4 as 3-point home dogs to Houston and by 26 at Tulsa as 2.5-point favorites. So that win over Wichita State was an aberration, and they caught the Shockers in a favorable spot as they were coming off an OT win at UConn.
The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. SMU is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last three home meetings with Temple with the three wins coming by 23, 14 and 9 points. The Mustangs are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 Saturday games. SMU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%. Bet SMU Saturday.
|01-18-20||76ers -3.5 v. Knicks||90-87||Loss||-109||17 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5
I know the Philadelphia 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight after beating the Bulls 100-89 last night. But the line has been adjusted too much for it as the 76ers are only 3.5-point favorites over the lowly New York Knicks tonight.
The 76ers shouldn’t be all that tired anyway considering they have had a lot of time off in January. In fact, it will be just the 8th game in 18 days in the month of January for the 76ers. They should have enough left in the tank to make easy work of the Knicks tonight.
The Knicks have some injury problems right now as they are missing RJ Barrett and Reggie Bullock and Dennis Smith Jr. are questionable. They did just get back Marcus Morris, but it didn’t matter in a 98-121 home loss to the Suns on Thursday. The Knicks are now just 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall with each of their last five losses coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 23 points per game.
The 76ers have owned the Knicks going 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings with all 10 wins by 3 points or more and nine by 5 points or more. Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Roll with the 76ers Saturday.
|01-18-20||Louisville v. Duke -7||79-73||Loss||-110||16 h 50 m||Show|
15* Louisville/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Duke -7
The Duke Blue Devils are coming off a shocking 72-79 loss at Clemson as 10.5-point favorites. It’s safe to say they will return home highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Louisville Cardinals. They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against 11th-ranked Louisville.
I believe Louisville is a fraud. The Cardinals are coming off two straight narrow wins over Notre Dame and Pitt, needing OT to beat Pitt. And they have recent losses to Florida State by 13 at home, by 13 to Texas Tech on a neutral and by 8 at Kentucky. Duke is the best team in the country and should win at home by more than 7 points today.
The Blue Devils are 9-1 at home this season and winning by 23.9 points per game. The Cardinals are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Blue Devils are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games off a loss. Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with Duke Saturday.
|01-18-20||Houston v. Wichita State -3||Top||65-54||Loss||-109||14 h 51 m||Show|
20* Houston/Wichita State AAC No-Brainer on Wichita State -3
The Wichita State Shockers are 15-2 this season and a legit threat to win the American Athletic this season. They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the Houston Cougars today.
The Shockers will be highly motivated for a win after a loss at Temple. Now they are back home where they are 12-0 this season and outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game. They have wins over the likes of Oklahoma (by 5), VCU (by 10), Ole Miss (by 20) and Memphis (by 9) at home this season.
The Houston Cougars are getting too much respect from oddsmakers after feasting on an easy schedule and going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Only two of those were true road games, and they were fortunate to win by 4 at Temple while also getting upset at Tulsa as 6.5-point favorites. This is a Houston team that lost a lot of talent from last season and only brought back one starter.
The Shockers are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Wichita State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. The Shockers are 22-10-3 ATS in their last 35 games overall. Roll with Wichita State Saturday.
|01-18-20||Oregon -1.5 v. Washington||64-61||Win||100||14 h 35 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon -1.5
I love the spot for the Oregon Ducks tonight. They are coming off a shocking upset loss at Washington State as 9-point favorites. It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win at Washington to make up for it tonight.
The Huskies are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall. And this is an Oregon team that they haven’t handled in the past. The Ducks are 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Huskies.
One matchup advantage that is going to be huge for Oregon is their pressure defense up against a sloppy Washington offense. The Huskies rank 284th in turnovers at 15.1 per game. Oregon plays a pressure defense that will capitalize on those turnovers.
Washington is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games off two straight games where it was called for 15 or fewer fouls. The Ducks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games. Oregon is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games vs. a team with a winning record. Oregon is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games overall. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog. Take Oregon Saturday.
|01-18-20||Tulsa v. Tulane||67-54||Loss||-110||12 h 51 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Line Mistake on Tulane PK
Tulane had covered four straight prior to a 55-74 upset home loss to UCF. It was a predictable letdown off their 65-51 upset win as 9-point dogs at Temple a few nights before. They also upset Cincinnati as 8-point home dogs and covered as double-digit road dogs to Memphis and UConn during this stretch.
Now the Green Wave will be highly motivated for a win after that letdown against UCF. And we are getting them at a tremendous value in a situation where they just have to win to cover at home tonight against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.
Few teams have had bigger home/road splits than Tulsa in recent years. While the Golden Hurricane are 9-2 at home this year, they are just 2-4 in all road games. Their only road wins came against poor ECU and Vanderbilt teams. They lost by 14 at UT-Arlington, lost at Kansas State, lost by 19 at Arkansas and lost by a whopping 31 at Cincinnati. That’s the same Cincinnati team that Tulane already beat.
Tulane is 3-0 and winning by 13.3 points per game against common opponents of Tulsa, which is 2-1 against those same three teams and only winning by 0.6 points per game. Tulane is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% this season. The Green Wave are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. Bet Tulane Saturday.
|01-18-20||Auburn v. Florida -1.5||Top||47-69||Win||100||11 h 21 m||Show|
20* Auburn/Florida SEC No-Brainer on Florida -1.5
Auburn finally had its 15-game winning streak to start the season come to an end with a 64-83 loss at Alabama on Wednesday. Now bubble has burst and I always like fading teams in their next game out after their extended winning streak has come to an end. They seem to let a team beat them twice in this situation.
Florida will be the fresher team after making easy work of Ole Miss 71-55 at home on Tuesday as they come in on three days’ rest while Auburn only comes in on two days’ rest. The Gators are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to a Top 10 Florida State team.
Auburn hasn’t won at Florida since 1996. In fact, the Gators are 12-0 SU in their last 12 home meetings with Auburn. So they basically just have to win to cover this short number at home tonight. And you can bet the Gators want revenge from a loss to Auburn in the SEC Championship last year. Take Florida Saturday.
|01-18-20||South Carolina v. Texas A&M -1.5||Top||81-67||Loss||-109||11 h 51 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M -1.5
Texas A&M is flying under the radar because their season-long stats aren’t a true picture of how well this team is playing right now. They got off to a rough start in Buzz Williams’ first season, but now they have turned a corner and are playing better than most teams in the SEC right now.
The Aggies have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall. Their only losses came on the road at Arkansas by 10 as 14.5-point dogs and at home to LSU by 4 in OT as 6.5-point dogs. They upset Vanderbilt by 19 as 3.5-point road dogs, beat Ole Miss by 10 as 3-point home dogs and also upset Oregon State by 15 as 6.5-point home dogs.
South Carolina is in a huge letdown spot after banking in a 3 at the buzzer to beat Kentucky at home as 6.5-point dogs on Wednesday. Now they only have two days to get ready for Texas A&M, while the Aggies last played on Tuesday. The Gamecocks had lost three straight prior to that Kentucky win, including getting upset by Stetson 56-63 as 22.5-point home favorites.
South Carolina is 0-6 ATS in road games off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Texas A&M is 10-2 ATS off a conference loss over the last two seasons. The Gamecocks are 1-10 ATS off two straight games where their opponent was called for 22 or more fouls over the last three seasons. Frank Martin is 1-8 ATS in road games off a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of South Carolina. Buzz Williams is 12-3 ATS in home games off a home loss to a conference opponent in all games as a head coach. Bet Texas A&M Saturday.
|01-17-20||Michigan v. Iowa -4.5||83-90||Win||100||8 h 1 m||Show|
15* Michigan/Iowa Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -4.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes want to avenge their 91-103 loss at Michigan earlier this season on December 6th. Now the Hawkeyes get the Wolverines at home this time around and it will be a completely different story.
Iowa is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in eight games since that loss to Michigan. That includes 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home with wins over Minnesota by 20, Kennesaw State by 42 and Maryland by 18. They also pulled off road wins over Iowa State, Cincinnati and Northwestern during this stretch.
The Hawkeyes are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS a home this season and winning by 18.3 points per game. The Wolverines are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games losing by 15 at Louisville, by 9 at Illinois, by 18 at Michigan State and by 8 at Minnesota. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. Take Iowa Friday.
|01-17-20||Cavs v. Grizzlies -8||109-113||Loss||-108||7 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -8
No team is playing better than the Memphis Grizzlies right now. They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with all six wins coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 14 points per game. That includes wins over the Clippers (by 26), Spurs (by 13) and Rockets (by 11).
Now the Grizzlies are rested with two days off since last defeating the Rockets on Tuesday. They should be able to handle their business against a Cleveland Cavaliers team that is coming off two straight losses by 29 and 25 points. The Cavaliers will be playing their 5th straight road game in this difficult spot.
Memphis is 10-2 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games this season. The Cavaliers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games off an ATS loss. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - revenging a loss where opponent scores 100 or more points, off a home win by 10 points or more are 72-39 (64.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.
|01-17-20||Bulls v. 76ers -7||Top||89-100||Win||100||6 h 7 m||Show|
20* Bulls/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia -7
The Philadelphia 76ers are 19-2 at home this season and winning by 9.8 points per game. They have been a good bet at home even without Joel Embiid. They won by 11 over the Nets and also by 11 over the Celtics in their last two home games without Embiid.
Now the 76ers should be able to cover this 7-point spread against the Chicago Bulls at home tonight. With this game being played on National TV on ESPN, they won’t take the Bulls lightly. The 76ers are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Bulls, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings winning by 16, 19 and 14 points.
The Bulls are just 2-7 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only wins coming against the Pistons and Wizards, two of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference. Six of those seven losses came by 7 points or more.
The Bulls are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games following a win. Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%. Bet the 76ers Friday.
|01-17-20||Wolves v. Pacers UNDER 216.5||114-116||Loss||-101||6 h 7 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Pacers UNDER 216.5
This is one of my favorite situations to bet an UNDER in the NBA. It’s a home-and-home situation between the Timberwolves and Pacers. So they are very familiar with each other playing the same opponent in back-to-back games, which always favors defense.
Indiana beat Minnesota 104-99 on the road on Wednesday for 203 combined points. That total was set at 217.5, and oddsmakers have hardly adjusted dropping this total just one point to 216.5. It’s now enough for an adjustment, especially when you consider the Pacers actually shot 51.8% in that first game and still only scored 104 points.
Indiana is 40-21 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last two seasons. The Pacers are 24-6 UNDER in home games with a total of 210 to 219.5 over the last two years. The UNDER is 9-2 in Timberwolves last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-17-20||Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 131.5||Top||55-67||Win||100||6 h 1 m||Show|
20* Wisconsin/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on UNDER 131.5
The Wisconsin Badgers are built for UNDERS and have been for years. They rank 351st out of 353 teams in adjusted tempo this season. They will try and slow this game to a snail’s pace to give themselves the best chance of hanging with the Spartans tonight.
The UNDER is 3-1 in Wisconsin’s last four games overall with the three UNDERS resulting in combined scores of 110 points against Maryland, 107 points against Penn State and 118 points against Ohio State. Expect more of the same tonight.
The UNDER is also 3-1 in Michigan State’s last four games overall. They combined for 132 points with Illinois, 132 points with Minnesota and 113 points with Purdue. They are giving up just 59.8 points per game at home this season, while Wisconsin is allowing just 60.1 points per game on the road.
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 122, 126, 123 and 131 points. As you can see, all four went UNDER this 131.5-point total. The UNDER is 38-13 in Badgers last 51 games as a road underdog. The UNDER is 7-1 in Badgers last eight road games. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-16-20||Colorado v. Arizona State +2.5||Top||68-61||Loss||-115||9 h 3 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +2.5
Arizona State lost to Colorado in the season opener in Shanghai, China. That game didn’t count in the conference standings, but you know the Sun Devils want revenge on the Buffaloes in Temple, AZ this time around.
The Sun Devils are certainly happy to be playing their first Pac-12 home game tonight following a brutal three games on the road. They have played three of the best teams in the conference in Arizona, Oregon State and Oregon all on the highway and did well just to win one of those games considering they were double-digit dogs in two and 6-point dogs in the other.
Conversely, Colorado has opened with three straight home games in Pac-12 play. They beat Oregon and Utah but were upset by Oregon State as 7.5-point favorites. Now the Buffaloes will be playing just their 3rd true road game of the season. They lost by 14 at Kansas and won by 8 at Colorado State.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings. Colorado is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games off two consecutive games as a home favorite. The Buffaloes are 14-37-1 ATS in their last 52 road games. The Sun Devils are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog. Bet Arizona State Thursday.
|01-16-20||Jazz v. Pelicans +5||132-138||Win||100||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans +5
Two red hot teams square off tonight when the Utah Jazz visit the New Orleans Pelicans. But only one of these hot teams is getting too much respect from oddsmakers, and that’s the Jazz as the 5-point road favorite.
The Jazz are playing great with 10 straight wins and 15 of their last 16 overall. But with that success comes expectations from oddsmakers that are tough to live up to. But keep in mind that 14 of those 15 wins came against teams with losing records, so they have been feasting on an easy schedule.
The Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Their only losses came on the road to the Lakers and Celtics and at home to the Jazz. Well, that was a 126-128 loss to the Jazz on January 6th, so now the Pelicans are going to be highly motivated for a win in the rematch tonight just 10 days later.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - a hot team having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. New Orleans gets Brandon Ingram and Derrick Favors back from injury tonight and JJ Redick could be back as well. Roll with the Pelicans Thursday.
|01-16-20||UAB v. Florida International -2||68-93||Win||102||7 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Florida International -2
The FIU Golden Panthers are one of my favorite teams in the country. They returned basically everyone and they play a fun style at a fast pace while constantly applying pressure to their opponents.
The Golden Panthers rank 20th in scoring offense at 80.2 points per game. They have been tremendous at home, going 7-0 while outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game. Off two straight road losses, the Golden Panthers return home highly motivated for a win tonight.
UAB is coming off two straight home wins over Western Kentucky and Marshall. Now they hit the road where the Blazers have gone 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS with their only win coming at Troy. They lost to Charlotte by 7 and Old Dominion by 5 in their last two road games, two teams that aren’t as good as FIU.
FIU is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off two or more consecutive ATS losses. The Golden Panthers are 15-4 ATS in tier last 19 home games off two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more. FIU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Take Florida International Thursday.
|01-15-20||Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech -1||Top||78-74||Loss||-110||8 h 4 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech -1
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets basically just have to win to cover tonight at home against Notre Dame. I expect them to do just that with how well they are playing coming into this game.
Despite facing a brutal schedule with four road games in their last five, the Yellow Jackets have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in those five games. They upset Hawaii by 17 and UNC by 13 on the road and crushed Boston College by 19 on the road. Their lone home game was against Duke, and they played them down to the wire only losing by 9 as 11.5-point dogs.
Notre Dame has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season. While the Fighting Irish are 10-6 SU, they are just 5-9-2 ATS this season. They are 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their five games played away from home with their only win coming at Syracuse by a single point.
The Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs. The Yellow Jackets are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites. Georgia Tech is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Yellow Jackets are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with Notre Dame. Georgia Tech is 10-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. Take Georgia Tech Wednesday.
|01-15-20||Xavier v. Marquette -3||65-85||Win||100||8 h 35 m||Show|
15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3
I like the spot for Marquette Wednesday night. They are coming off two straight losses to Providence and Seton Hall and will return home highly motivated for a victory tonight. They are 10-2 at home this season with double-digit victories over Villanova, Purdue and USC.
Marquette is a tremendous shooting team that shoot 40% from 3-point range, which ranks 9th in the country. Five of their top six scorers all shoot at least 37% from distance. Xavier is a poor shooting team at 29.7% on 3-pointers, which ranks 315th in the country.
The Musketeers’ poor shooting is a big reason they’ve been so inconsistent. While they are 12-5 SU, they are just 4-12-1 ATS. They have lost three of their last four including double-digits home losses to both Creighton (by 12) and Seton Hall (by 12) as favorites. Marquette won both meetings last year by 18 points at home and by 5 points on the road.
Marquette is 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 4.5 points or less this season. Xavier is 2-9 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Musketeers are 1-8 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons. Take Marquette Wednesday.
|01-15-20||Nets v. 76ers -7||Top||106-117||Win||100||7 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia 76ers -7
The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off two straight road losses to the Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks. They return home highly motivated for a victory tonight and pretty rested as this will be just their 6th game in 15 days.
I know the 76ers are without Joel Embiid, but they won their last home game 109-98 over the Boston Celtics as 1-point favorites without him. The 76ers are now 18-2 at home this season and winning by 9.7 points per game. Philadelphia is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in then last five meetings while winning by 22 points in each of their last two home meetings with Brooklyn.
It’s a bad spot for the Brooklyn Nets. They are coming off a 107-118 home loss to Utah last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. The Nets are just 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The Nets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games playing on zero rest. Brooklyn is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog. Philadelphia is 30-16 ATS in home games revenging a loss over the last three seasons. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.
|01-15-20||Evansville v. Indiana State -10||42-65||Win||100||7 h 34 m||Show|
15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State -10
Two weeks have passed since Evansville placed coach Walter McCarty on leave to determine whether he violated Title IX. The distractions have taken their toll on the Purple Aces as they have opened 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in MVC play, losing by an average of 17.3 points per game.
Indiana State is a legitimate contender to win the Missouri Valley this season. It’s a veteran team that returned four starters and has now gone 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Drake and Northern Iowa, two of the best teams in the conference.
Indiana State is 6-0 at home this season and winning by 11.7 points per game. They beat Illinois State by 13 and Southern Illinois by 12 in their first two home games to open conference play. Another double-digit win can be expected tonight.
Indiana State is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Evansville, including a 23-point home win last year. The Purple Aces are 0-8 ATS in their last eight Wednesday games. Evansville is 0-6 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season, while Indiana State is 9-2 ATS in home games with a total of 130 to 139.5 over the last two years. Roll with Indiana State Wednesday.
|01-15-20||Tennessee v. Georgia -2.5||63-80||Win||100||7 h 34 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia -2.5
The Georgia Bulldogs are highly motivated for a win tonight off two straight losses to two of the best teams in the country in Auburn and Kentucky. Now they are back home tonight and hosting a Tennessee team they can handle.
Georgia is 8-1 at home this season and winning by 14.9 points per game. Their only home loss came to Kentucky. And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings. Georgia is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Tennessee.
The Vols lost almost everyone from last year’s team that made a run in the NCAA Tournament. They did return Lamaonte Turner, but now he’s out for the season. His loss has been huge as he averages 12.3 points and 7.1 assists per game this season.
The Vols are just 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games with their only wins coming against Jacksonville State, South Carolina (by 1) and Missouri. They lost by 14 at home to LSU, by 20 at home to Wisconsin, by 4 at home to Memphis and by 12 at Cincinnati. The Vols are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off a win. The Bulldogs are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off a loss by more than 20 points. Bet Georgia Wednesday.
|01-14-20||Missouri v. Mississippi State -2||45-72||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -2.5
It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight. They have been a disappointment compared to preseason expectations with just a 9-6 start despite returning four starters from a team that was very good last year.
It’s safe to say the Bulldogs will be highly motivated for a victory. They have lost three straight against an absolutely brutal schedule to open SEC play. They lost at home to unbeaten Auburn and on the road to very good Alabama and LSU teams. This home game against Missouri is easily their best chance to get their first conference win to date.
Missouri is in a letdown spot off an upset home win over Florida over the weekend. That followed up a 12-point loss at Kentucky and a 10-point home loss to Tennessee, so it really came out of nowhere. They Tigers also lost at home to Charleston Southern and on a neutral by double-digits to both Oklahoma and Butler. I think they’re getting too much respect for that Florida win, which is by far their best victory of the season.
Mississippi State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Missouri. The Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Ben Howland is 15-5 ATS after losing three of their last four games as the coach of the Bulldogs. Roll with Mississippi State Tuesday.
|01-14-20||Rockets v. Grizzlies +5.5||Top||110-121||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Grizzlies NBA TV No-Brainer on Memphis +5.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are playing their best basketball of the season. They are 12-6 SU & 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall. They have won five straight coming in including road upsets of the Clippers and Suns.
The Houston Rockets are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. They lost at New Orleans by 15, at Golden State by 12 as 11-point favorites, at Oklahoma City by 21 as 1-3-point favorites and failed to cover in a win at Atlanta as 7.5-point favorites. Now the Rockets will be without Russell Westbrook tonight due to a rest day.
Memphis is 15-5 ATS in home games when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons. The Rockets are 12-28-1 ATS in their last 41 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.
|01-14-20||UCF v. Tulane -1||Top||74-55||Loss||-110||7 h 26 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulane -1
The Tulane Green Wave are one of the most improved teams in the country this season under first-year head coach Ron Hunter. He was great at IUPUI and Georgia State before and now he’s doing big things at Tulane already.
Indeed, the Green Wave are off to a 10-6 start this season. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall against the cream of the crop in the AAC. They covered at Memphis as 15-point dogs, upset Cincinnati as 8-point home dogs, covered as 10-point dogs at UConn and upset Temple by 14 as 9-point road dogs. The Green Wave are 6-0 at home this season and winning by 15.0 points per game.
UCF lost all but one starter that helped them make some noise in the NCAA Tournament last year. The Knights aren’t close to the same team they were last season. They are just 9-7 with five straight losses coming in. They lost at Houston by 15, but 4 at home to Temple and by 14 at home to Cincinnati. That gives these teams a few common opponents that show Tulane is the superior squad.
The Green Wave are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. Tulane is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games overall. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Tulane Tuesday.
|01-14-20||Suns -3 v. Hawks||110-123||Loss||-109||7 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix Suns -3
The Phoenix Suns have gotten healthy and are starting to play like they did to start the season. The Suns are 5-3 in their last eight games overall. They have pulled road upsets over the Kings and Blazers during this stretch.
Now the Suns go on the road and fave a hapless Atlanta Hawks team that is just 2-15 SU in its last 17 games overall. The Hawks have lost four straight with some bad losses by 10 at Washington and by 22 at Brooklyn in their last two games. Injuries are really taking their toll on the Hawks With Fernando, Parker and Len out while both Hunter and Young are questionable.
The Suns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Hawks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Suns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Atlanta and 30-14 ATS in their last 44 meetings overall. Take the Suns Tuesday.
|01-14-20||LSU v. Texas A&M +6.5||89-85||Win||100||6 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +6.5
Buzz Williams took the job at Texas A&M after turning around Virginia Tech. And after a slow start to the season, Williams has the Aggies playing their best basketball of the year entering SEC play.
Texas A&M has gone 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall. Their only loss came on the road by 10 to Arkansas as 14.5-point dogs. They beat Oregon State by 15 as 6.5-point home dogs, upset Ole Miss by 10 as 3-point home dogs and crushed Vanderbilt by 19 as 3.5-point road dogs.
Now the Aggies are once again getting zero respect from oddsmakers as 6.5-point home dogs to LSU. The Tigers are getting too much respect for their four-game winning streak, which features non-covers in narrow home wins over Arkansas by 2 and Mississippi State by 1 in their last two games coming in.
Texas A&M is 9-2 ATS off a road game over the last two seasons. LSU is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite. The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. Take Texas A&M Tuesday.
|01-13-20||Cavs +14 v. Lakers||99-128||Loss||-109||12 h 16 m||Show|
15* Cavs/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +14
Cleveland head coach John Beilein recently held a team meeting to apologize for using the word thug when he meant to say slug in a film session. It’s obvious his players have his back with the way they have performed their last two games.
Indeed, the Cavaliers went on the road and beat the Pistons outright as 7.5-point dogs in the first game following the meeting. And then they went on the road Saturday and upset the Nuggets 111-103 as 12.5-point dogs. Now they are catching 14 points to the Lakers, which is simply too much.
The Lakers have six players on their injury report right now. Both Anthony Davis and Danny Green are questionable tonight, while Lebron James and Avery Bradley are probable. I just can’t see the Lakers being too motivated to face the Cavaliers tonight and that’s going to make it tough to cover this massive 14-point spread. Especially since it’s a letdown spot off back-to-back road wins at Dallas and Oklahoma City.
The Lakers are 10-31 ATS in their last 41 home games after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games. Plays on road underdogs (Cleveland) off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 54-21 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Cavaliers Monday.
|01-13-20||Hornets +9.5 v. Blazers||112-115||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +9.5
The Portland Trail Blazers have to win by double-digits to beat us tonight. That’s asking too much for a struggling Portland team that is 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
This number is adjusted too much for the Hornets playing a back-to-back here. They covered in a 92-100 loss at Phoenix last night. And this is a young Hornets team that doesn’t get affected as much as most teams would in these back-to-back situations.
The Hornets are 3-1 ATS in their last four road games with upset wins over both the Mavericks and Cavaliers. Charlotte is 24-12 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. The Hornets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. Take the Hornets Monday.
|01-13-20||Clemson v. LSU -5.5||Top||25-42||Win||100||79 h 59 m||Show|
20* Clemson/LSU National Championship No-Brainer on LSU -5.5
I’ve never seen a more impressive team than LSU in college football history. I’ve been riding them all season and I’m not about to back off now. I fully expect LSU to make easy work of Clemson here.
Joe Burrow won the Heisman and is as good as any quarterback in college football that I can remember. He threw seven touchdowns in the first half against Oklahoma. He is in charge of a record-breaking LSU offense that averages 48.9 points and 564.1 yards per game this season. And it has come against the 7th-toughest schedule in the country.
LSU doubters aren’t impressed with their defense, but the only games they gave up big points and yardage totals were games they were in control of and simply let up. But this LSU defense is playing tremendous down the stretch, giving up just 4.1 yards per play in their last four games overall. They beat Texas A&M 50-7, Georgia 37-10 and Oklahoma 63-28. The Sooners didn’t do anything offensively until garbage time in the 2nd half.
It just shows me that when LSU is locked in, they can shut down anyone defensively. And Clemson was extremely fortunate to beat Ohio State last week as the refs basically gave them that game. And while LSU has played the 7th-toughest schedule, Clemson has payed the 56th-toughest. A common opponent is Texas A&M. Clemson beat Texas A&M 24-10 at home, while LSU beat the Aggies 50-7 at home.
It’s safe to say that Clemson’s defense hasn’t faced an offense nearly as potent as LSU, and certainly not many good passing attacks this season with their easy schedule. So I’d say it’s a bad sign of things to come for Clemson considering they gave up 320 passing yards to Ohio State and 283 to Virginia in their last two games coming in.
Ed Orgeron is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of LSU. LSU is 7-0 ATS after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more yards this season. LSU is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years. LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record. LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games. LSU will go down as one of the best teams in college football history when they throttle Clemson in the National Championship Game. Bet LSU Monday.
|01-12-20||Arizona v. Oregon State +4.5||65-82||Win||100||12 h 53 m||Show|
15* Arizona/Oregon State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +4.5
Head coach Wayne Tinkle is doing a great job at Oregon State. He has the Beavers off to an 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS start this season. And I believe the Beavers have a great chance to upset Arizona at home today.
Oregon State has a great home-court advantage in going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in all home games this season. They are coming off an upset home loss to Arizona State, so they’ll be motivated to bounce back tonight. It was a letdown spot off their upset win as 7.5-point dogs at Colorado.
Arizona is also 11-4, but the Wildcats have feasted on a home-heavy schedule. They are 0-2 in their two true road games with losses at Baylor and Oregon. They also lost to Gonzaga at home and to St. John’s on a neutral.
Arizona is 0-7 ATS in road games off a loss over the last two seasons. Oregon State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss. The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss. Roll with Oregon State Sunday.
|01-12-20||Clippers v. Nuggets +1||104-114||Win||100||10 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Denver Nuggets +1
The Denver Nuggets are coming off a bad home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers as 12.5-point favorites. But you could see that letdown coming with the Clippers on deck today.
Now, the Nuggets will come back highly motivated for a win at home here tonight. And I’m not concerned about the back-to-back for them. They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, plus they had two days off before that Cleveland game.
The Clippers have struggled to put away some bad teams lately. They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They lost 114-140 at home to the Grizzlies as 10-point favorites, only beat the Knicks by 3 as 10-point home favorites and only beat the Warriors by 9 as 14.5-point home favorites. And the Clippers are likely to be without Paul George again tonight.
The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Denver as well. Take the Nuggets Sunday.
|01-12-20||Seahawks v. Packers -4||Top||23-28||Win||100||77 h 43 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -4
The Seahawks improved to 11-2 in one score games with their fortunate 17-9 win over the Eagles last week. They knocked out Carson Wentz in the first quarter and got the luxury of facing 40-year-old Josh McCown the rest of the way. And they still had to hang on for dear life.
The Seahawks’ luck runs out this week. They have played in two straight physical wars against the 49ers and Eagles and it will take its toll on them this week. Meanwhile, the Packers are rested and ready to go after earning a first-round bye.
Injuries are really taking their toll on the Seahawks now. They could be without three starting offensive linemen. They are likely to be without both tackle Duane Brown and guard Mike Iupati. And tackle George Fant suffered a groin injury that has him questionable. Both backup RB’s Lynch and Homer averaged just 1.0 yards per carry against the Eagles last week as the offense managed just 17 points.
Russell Wilson is going to be running for his life against one of the best tandem of pass rushers in the NFL in the Smith Brothers. And this is a Packers defense that has really improved down the stretch, giving up 20 points or fewer in five straight games and an average of just 14.2 points per game during this stretch. Rodgers finally has a defense to support him, which is a dangerous combination.
This is a very poor Seattle defense that ranked 26th in total defense in allowing 381.6 yards per game during the regular season and 29th in yards per play (6.0) allowed. The injuries are mounting on defense too with CB Flowers, DT Jefferson, LB Kendricks, DE Ansah and DE Clowney all on the injury report. Aaron Rodgers is going to have his way with this defense.
Speaking of Rodgers, this will be the eighth time he has faced Russell Wilson. The home team is 7-0 SU and winning by 8 points per game in the seven previous matchups between Rodgers and Wilson. And it’s going to be about 20 degrees on Sunday after it snows Friday and Saturday in Green Bay. Lambeau Field is arguably the best home-field advantage in the NFL and easily worth 4 points in my opinion. Factor in the rest advantage for Green Bay and all the injuries for the fraudulent Seahawks, and it’s easy to see why I like the Packers only laying 4 points.
The Packers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games off a close road win by 3 points or less. Green Bay is 11-2 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. The Packers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off five or more consecutive wins. The Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off an ATS loss. Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record. The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Seahawks. Roll with the Packers Sunday.
|01-11-20||Titans +10 v. Ravens||28-12||Win||100||31 h 60 m||Show|
15* Titans/Ravens AFC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +10
The Tennessee Titans have made me a lot of money in the second half of the season. A big reason why is because they are a completely different team since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. Their season-long stats lie, and oddsmakers are setting their numbers more based on their season-long stats than the team they are with Tannehill.
Tannehill completed 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio and a whopping 9 yards per completion in the regular season. Their threat of a downfield passing attack has opened things up greatly for Derrick Henry. The Titans have rushed for at least 149 yards in eight straight games while averaging a whopping 189.6 rushing yards per game during this eight-game stretch.
The Titans put up 33.4 points per game over their final seven games. Because they can run the ball, they were 1st in the NFL in red zone scoring efficiency this season. And while the Ravens have been decent against the run, they do give up 4.4 yards per carry. Plus the Ravens faced the 5th-easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks this season.
Stopping Baltimore’s top-ranked rushing attack is key to stopping them. The Titans are 12th in the NFL against the run in yards per game allowed, but they are an even better 7th in yards per carry (4.0) allowed. They have probably the 2nd-fasted front 7 of any team in the NFL behind the 49ers, who held the Ravens to 20 points earlier this season. Having speed in the front 7 is the key to being able to defend Lamar Jackson.
I like that the Titans are battle-tested. They needed to win in Week 17 to make the playoffs and handled their business in a 35-14 win at Tennessee. And last week they went on the road and beat New England 20-13 as 4.5-point dogs. They are in full-blown playoff mode and gaining confidence with each win.
The Ravens haven’t played a meaningful game since Week 16. And we saw them struggle in the playoffs last year against the Chargers. They’ve played a bunch of cupcakes down the stretch and the last good teams they played were the Bills and 49ers, and they only won those games by 7 and 3 points, respectively. Tennessee has enough film on Jackson and company now to be able to slow them down.
Since both teams like to run the ball so much, this game will be slowed to a snail’s pace. That favors the double-digit underdog here. I think the Titans will continue to have success with Henry on the ground and that will help shorten this game. The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite. Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last five playoff home games. Take the Titans Saturday.
|01-11-20||Southern Illinois +7.5 v. Bradley||48-67||Loss||-103||10 h 56 m||Show|
15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois +7.5
The Bradley Braves are without their best player in Elijah Childs (14.2 PPG, 9.1 RPG) for the foreseeable future. They are also without key role player Stephen Gabriel (4.0 PPG, 50% 3-pointers). They are fade material for the foreseeable future until they get Childs back.
Southern Illinois is playing too well to be catching 7.5 points from Bradley tonight. The Salukis are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They beat Illinois State by 12 and Valpo by 13 in their last two games coming in.
Southern Illinois is 60-28 ATS in its last 88 road games after having won four of its last five games coming in. Bradley is 0-6 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by 4-plus boards per game over the last three seasons. Bradley’s rebounding edge is definitely minimized with the loss of top rebounder Childs. Roll with Southern Illinois Saturday.
|01-11-20||Pelicans v. Celtics -9.5||Top||105-140||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics -9.5
It’s safe to say the Boston Celtics will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday. They are riding a season-high three-game losing streak coming in. They will take out their frustration on the New Orleans Pelicans tonight with a blowout victory.
This is a tough spot for the Pelicans. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after beating the Knicks on the road last night. This 6 in 9 days is as tough as it gets in the NBA. I think they run out of gas tonight, especially since they will be without two starters in Jrue Holiday and Derrick Favors.
Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - after failing to cover three of their last four ATS against an opponent that covered four of their last five ATS are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Celtics have won their last two meetings with the Pelicans by 13 at home and by 17 on the road. Bet the Celtics Saturday.
|01-11-20||Vikings v. 49ers -6.5||Top||10-27||Win||100||121 h 4 m||Show|
25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -6.5
The 49ers needed the bye week as much as anyone. They were among the first teams to have a bye week this year as theirs came clear back in Week 4. This was a tired, banged up team down the stretch and they showed a lot of heart in getting that all-important No. 1 seed.
It’s going to pay off this week as the 49ers are as healthy as they have been in months. They are expected to get back some key players on defense. LB Kwon Alexander, S Jaquiski Tartt and DE Dee Ford are all back now after missing Week 17. When Alexander, Ford and Nick Bosa have been on the field at the same time this season, opposing quarterbacks have a QBR of 3, which is unheard of.
Conversely, the spot couldn’t be worse for the Minnesota Vikings. They are coming off their huge upset win over the Saints in overtime on Sunday. Now they have to come back and play the early game Saturday on a short week. Not to mention, they have to travel from New Orleans back to Minnesota and then all the way out to the West Coast to Santa Clara.
Injuries are taking their toll on the Vikings, too. Both Stephon Diggs (Illness) and Adam Thielen (ankle) didn’t practice on Tuesday and Wednesday. With all this travel, the Vikings aren’t going to get much practice time at all as it is. And they could be without DT Linval Joseph (knee) who got banged up against the Saints. They are without their top corner in Mackensie Alexander and starting safety Jayron Kearse (toe) is questionable. And after a huge workload returning from injury last week, RB Dalvin Cook won’t be 100% on this short week.
The 49ers weren’t as good defensively down the stretch due to those injuries, but they should get back to being the top defense in the league now. They ranked 2nd in total defense during the regular season giving up just 281.8 yards per game. The 49ers were dominant offensively down the stretch as Jimmy G had a 109.3 QBR since they traded for Emmanuel Sanders. They finished 4th in total offense averaging 381.1 yards per game. They were the only team in the NFL to finish Top 5 in offense and defense this season and I strongly believe they are the best team left in the playoffs now that they are a lot healthier.
Getting margin hasn’t been a problem for the 49ers as they are outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per game on the season and 12.8 points per game at home. The Vikings are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. It’s just too much to ask for the Vikings to go on the road two weeks in a row and beat the two best teams in the NFC in the Saints and 49ers. They will fall flat here against a superior 49ers team in the much better spot. Bet the 49ers Saturday.
|01-11-20||Marquette v. Seton Hall -5.5||Top||55-69||Win||100||6 h 57 m||Show|
20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -5.5
The Seton Hall Pirates are one of the best teams in the country and still undervalued. They are 11-4 on the season with five straight wins and covers including home wins over Maryland and Georgetown as well as road wins over Xavier and DePaul.
The Pirates have held all 15 opponents this season below their season average, which is a big reason they rank 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency. In 6 of their 11 wins have had held their opponents to 10 or more points below their season averages.
Marquette is 1-2 in true road games with their lone win at Kansas State. They were blasted by 16 at Wisconsin and by 17 at Creighton and Seton Hall is better than both of those teams. The Golden Eagles were just upset at home by Providence as well.
The Pirates are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the last two seasons. The Pirates are 7-1 ATS at home this season. The Golden Eagles are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs. Bet Seton Hall Saturday.
|01-11-20||Wisconsin v. Penn State -3||58-49||Loss||-110||4 h 12 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -3
The Penn State Nittany Lions are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They are off to a 12-3 start with all three of their losses coming on the road.
The Nittany Lions are undervalued after their upset loss at Rutgers, which is also one of the most improved teams in the land. But now Penn State is back home where it is 9-0 this season and winning by 20.6 points per game.
Wisconsin was also upset by Illinois last time out, but that was at home. The Badgers are 2-5 in all games played away from home with neutral court losses to the likes of St. Mary’s, Richmond and New Mexico, as well as true game road losses to NC State by 15 and Rutgers by 7.
The Badgers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games off a loss. The Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games off a loss. Penn State is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 home games. Roll with Penn State Saturday.
|01-11-20||Illinois State v. Indiana State -6.5||52-65||Win||100||4 h 56 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana State -6.5
The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season. They had won eight straight prior to two tough road losses to Drake by 4 and Northern Iowa by 8, which are also among the best teams in the MVC.
Now the Sycamores are back home where they were last seen beating Southern Illinois by 12. Indiana State is 5-0 at home this season. Now they take on a down Illinois State team that returned just one starter this year and is off to a 6-9 start.
Illinois State is 0-7 in all games played away from home this season. They lost by 12 at Southern Illinois, the same team that Indiana State beat by 12. The home team is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings. Indiana State won by 23 and by 30 in its last two home meetings with Illinois State.
The Redbirds are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take Indiana State Saturday.
|01-10-20||Lakers v. Mavs -2||Top||129-114||Loss||-109||11 h 33 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Mavs ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas -2
The Dallas Mavericks just lost to the Lakers 95-108 on the road on December 29th. They have now lost two of three meetings to the Lakers, including an overtime loss where the Lakers tied it at the buzzer at the end of regulation. The Mavericks want revenge and to tie the season series at 2-2 tonight.
The good news for the Mavericks is that they won’t have to go up against Anthony Davis tonight due to a tailbone injury suffered against the Knicks last time out. The Lakers are only a shell of themselves without Davis, who leads them in scoring (27.1 PPG), rebounding (9.4 RPG) and blocks (2.6 BPG).
The Mavericks are a perfect 9-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season, coming back to win by 11.2 points per game. Dallas is 8-0 ATS off a home loss this season. The Lakers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Mavericks Friday.
|01-10-20||Butler v. Providence +2||70-58||Loss||-115||10 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +2
The Providence Friars have turned the corner and are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They blasted Texas by 22 and Georgetown by 16 at home, while also pulling road upset wins over DePaul and Marquette.
Now the Friars are playing with a ton of confidence and will welcome the opportunity to face a Top 10 team in Butler in what should be a great home atmosphere for them. It’s what I believe to be a fraudulent 14-1 Butler team that is nowhere near as good as their record.
Providence is 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 meetings with Butler, including 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings. Butler has played three true road games this season losing to Baylor and winning narrowly at St. John’s by 2 and by 9 over Ole Miss. This is their toughest test since that loss to Baylor.
Butler is 5-16 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. Providence is 7-1 SU at home this season. The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with Providence Friday.
|01-10-20||Pelicans -4 v. Knicks||123-111||Win||100||8 h 3 m||Show|
15* Pelicans/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans -4
The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season. They are 6-2 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses coming on the road to the Lakers by 10 as 10-point dogs and at home to the Jazz by 2 as 4-point dogs. They have road wins over the Blazers, Nuggets and Kings during this stretch as well as home wins over the Pacers, Rockets and Bulls.
The New York Knicks are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They are coming off a 24-point loss at Utah that followed up a 30-point loss at the Lakers. This is a tired team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days now after playing in altitude.
It’s a very difficult spot for the Knicks. They are coming off a four-game road trip, and I like to fade teams returning home from a long road trip. Making matters worse is that the Knicks will be without their best player in Julius Randle (18.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG) and could be without leading scorer Marcus Morris (19.1 PPG) again as well.
New York is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last two seasons. It is losing by 15.2 points per game in this spot. The Pelicans are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Take the Pelicans Friday.
|01-09-20||BYU v. St. Mary's -3||84-87||Push||0||12 h 33 m||Show|
15* BYU/St. Mary’s ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Mary’s -3
The St. Mary’s Gaels are coming off a bad upset road loss to Pacific 99-107 as 8.5-point favorites on January 4th. I think that loss is providing us with some value to pull the trigger on the Gaels as only 3-point home favorites over BYU tonight.
The Gaels are still one of the best teams in all of college basketball. They are 13-3 on the season and 7-1 at home. They have wins over Wisconsin, Utah State, Arizona State and Nevada this season.
BYU is 12-4 and getting too much respect for a six-game winning streak coming into this game. They have played three true road games this year, losing at Utah and at Boise State while winning at Houston by 1 point. St. Mary’s is better than all three of those teams.
St. Mary’s is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine home meetings with BYU. They beat the Cougars by 22 points at home last year. BYU is 51-107-4 ATS in its last 162 games as an underdog and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a road dog. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The favorite is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Gaels are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Roll with St. Mary’s Thursday.
|01-09-20||Rockets v. Thunder +4||Top||92-113||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +4
The Houston Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 122-115 win in Atlanta last night. Six players logged at least 30 minutes for the Rockets last night, so this is a very tough situation for them.
Chris Paul wants revenge on his former team after the Rockets traded him away in the offseason to make room for Russell Westbrook. And you know the Thunder will rally around him. They nearly upset the Rockets in a 112-116 road loss as 10-point dogs in their first meeting. And now they get the Rockets at home this time around.
Plus, the Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have gone 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall which includes upset wins over Dallas, Toronto, San Antonio, the Clippers and the Nets.
The Thunder are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Oklahoma City is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games overall. The Thunder are 47-22-3 ATS in their last 72 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of more than 60%. Oklahoma City is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games playing on one days’ rest. The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog. Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the Thunder Thursday.
|01-09-20||Arizona v. Oregon -3.5||Top||73-74||Loss||-105||9 h 24 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon -3.5
The Oregon Ducks are one of the best teams in the country. They have gone 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS this season and I think they aren’t getting the respect they deserve as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Arizona Wildcats tonight.
Oregon has played the 33rd-toughest schedule in the country while ranking 7th in offensive efficiency and 66th in defensive efficiency. They have wins ov er Memphis, Houston, Seton Hall, Michigan and Utah. Their three losses have come to Gonzaga, UNC and Colorado.
Arizona has taken advantage of a much easier schedule. They have played just one true road game all season, which resulted in a loss to Baylor. They also lost to St. John’s and Gonzaga on a neutral. They lack impressive wins as their best wins have come against Illinois and Arizona State and both were at home.
Oregon is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Arizona. The Wildcats are 1-11 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Arizona is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. The Ducks are 22-4 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Oregon is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 home games. Bet Oregon Thursday.
|01-08-20||Tulane +11.5 v. Connecticut||61-67||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Tulane +11.5
Ron Hunter has won everywhere he has gone. He had very successful stints at IUPUI and Georgia State and now he has already turned around this Tulane program in his first season on the job thanks to recruiting some great transfers.
The Green Wave are 9-5 SU & 9-5 ATS this season and continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the country. They showed that here recently giving Memphis a run on the road as 15-point dogs and upsetting Cincinnati at home as 8-point dogs in their first two AAC games.
Now the Green Wave are catching a whopping 11.5 points from Connecticut tonight, which is simply too much. UConn has opened 0-2 in AAC play losing by 16 at Cincinnati and by 15 at South Florida. They may come back and win their first conference game tonight, but asking them to cover 11.5 points is asking too much.
Tulane is 12-2 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games over the last two seasons. The Green Wave are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Tulane is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games overall. The Huskies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Roll with Tulane Wednesday.
|01-08-20||Kansas v. Iowa State +5.5||79-53||Loss||-115||8 h 40 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +5.5
This is the ultimate ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Iowa State Cyclones. They lost to Florida A&M as a 25-point favorite two games back. But they didn’t have their best player in Tyrese Haliburton.
Haliburton returned for their Big 12 opener against TCU and promptly posted a triple-double with 22 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists. He means everything to this team. But they lost 79-81 (OT) at TCU as 4-point dogs only after a banked 3 at the buzzer by the Horned Frogs.
Now the Cyclones return home highly motivated for a win. And no team has played Kansas tougher than Iowa State in Big 12 play in recent years. The Cyclones are 7-6 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Kansas. Hilton Coliseum is one of the toughest places to play in the country and Kansas has had a hard time getting any kind of margin on the road in this series.
Iowa State is much better than its 7-6 record as the Cyclones are 348th out of 353 teams in KenPom’s luck factor, which indicates how lucky a team is to have the record that they have. They are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now as a result.
Iowa State is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 home games off a close loss by 3 points or less. Kansas is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games. Steve Prohm is 15-6 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Iowa State. Take Iowa State Wednesday.
|01-08-20||Florida State v. Wake Forest +7||Top||78-68||Loss||-110||7 h 11 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +7
Danny Manning has these Wake Forest Demon Deacons playing some great basketball right now. They have won three straight which includes an upset home win over Xavier as 6-point dogs and an upset road win over Pitt as 6.5-point dogs.
Florida State is also playing great right now with six consecutive wins. But this is obviously a letdown spot for the Seminoles after pulling the upset at Louisville as 6-point dogs last time out. I think they fall flat here against Wake Forest and will have a hard time winning this game, let alone covering the 7-point spread.
Wake has covered its last two home games against Florida State, both as underdogs. The Demon Deacons have only played five of their 13 games at home this season. They are 4-1 at home with their only loss to NC State. They have played the 43rd-toughest schedule in the country so they are battle-tested.
Florida State is 29-58 ATS in its last 87 games after having won eight or more of its last 10 games coming in. The Demon Deacons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a. Winning record. Wake Forest is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet Wake Forest Wednesday.
|01-08-20||Raptors v. Hornets +3||112-110||Win||100||7 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3
The Toronto Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight. They just went to the wire with the Blazers at home last night in a 99-101 loss. And now they have to try and get back up off the mat to face the Hornets tonight.
It has been a struggle here of late for the Raptors due to all their injuries. They are missing four key players in Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol, Fred VanVleet and Norman Powell. Siakam and VanVleet are their two best players. It’s no wonder their have gone just 3-5 SU in their last eight games overall. And being short-handed makes these back-to-back situations even more difficult.
The Hornets have pulled two impressive road upsets over the Mavericks and Cavaliers in two of their last three games coming in. They did lose to the Pacers at home after letting that game get away from them in the 4th quarter. But that will have them coming back determined tonight to beat the Raptors.
The home team has won four of the last five meetings. The Hornets are 11-2 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|01-08-20||Heat v. Pacers -1||Top||122-108||Loss||-106||7 h 46 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1
This is yet another case of the Indiana Pacers being underrated as only 1-point home favorites over the Miami Heat tonight. The Pacers are 15-4 at home this season and should be a bigger favorite tonight.
The Heat also have a great home-court advantage as they are 17-1 at home, but they are not home here. Miami is just 9-9 on the road this season. Their last two road games were very ugly as they lost at Washington by 18 as 14-point favorites and lost by 20 at Orlando.
Indiana wants revenge from a 112-113 road loss at Miami as 5-point dogs on December 27th in the first and only meeting thus far. The Pacers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 home meetings with the Heat. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings overall with Miami.
The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites. Indiana is 34-18 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last three seasons. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.
|01-07-20||Knicks +13.5 v. Lakers||87-117||Loss||-115||11 h 14 m||Show|
15* Knicks/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on New York +13.5
The New York Knicks are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 6-6 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They have only lost twice by more than 8 points in those 12 games, so they have been extremely competitive.
The Knicks just took the Clippers to the wire at Staples Center on Sunday in a 132-135 loss as 10-point dogs. Now they are catching 13.5 points to the Lakers with no travel and I expect them to take LeBron and company to the wire in this game tonight.
The Lakers are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. In fact, the Lakers haven’t beaten anyone by more than 13 points in their last 12 games overall, making for a 12-0 system backing the Knicks pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.
The Knicks are 8-0 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season. The Lakers are 1-10 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents over the last two seasons. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (New York) - a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 47-15 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Knicks Tuesday.
|01-07-20||TCU v. Kansas State -1||Top||59-57||Loss||-112||10 h 39 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State -1
The Kansas State Wildcats return home highly motivated for a win tonight. They have lost three of their last four coming in all by 6 points or fewer. Two were on neutral courts to solid Mississippi State and Saint Louis teams as well as a 5-point loss at Oklahoma as 7-point dogs.
Now the Wildcats are back home where they are 6-1 this season and winning by 14.2 points per game. They host a TCU team that has played a ridiculously easy schedule. In fact, it will be the first true road game for TCU this season. They’ve only played two games away from home which were both on neutrals with a loss to Clemson and a win against Wyoming.
Kansas State is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with TCU. The Hornets Frogs are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 Big 12 games, while the Wildcats are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 Big 12 games. TCU is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games off a win. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Kansas State Tuesday.
|01-07-20||Loyola-Chicago v. Drake -1||Top||62-65||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Drake -1
The Drake Bulldogs are one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference this year. They are off to an 11-4 start including a perfect 8-0 record at home where they are winning by 17.5 points per game. They should be a bigger home favorite against Loyola-Chicago here.
Loyola-Chicago is 2-1 in true road games with a blowout loss to Furman by 24 and a narrow win over Valparaiso by 3 as 3-point favorites. They also won at Ball State. This will be Loyola-Chicago’s toughest road test of the season thus far.
Drake is 30-12-2 ATS in its last 44 games overall. The Bulldogs are 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 home games. The Ramblers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Loyola-Chicago is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet Drake Tuesday.
|01-07-20||Baylor v. Texas Tech -3||57-52||Loss||-108||10 h 38 m||Show|
15* Baylor/Texas Tech ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -3
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have looked the part of a national championship contender once again this season when healthy. They have won five straight coming in, which includes their 70-57 win as 7.5-point dogs of then-No. 1 Louisville on a neutral and their 85-50 trouncing of Oklahoma State in their Big 12 opener.
Baylor is ranked 4th in the country, but it's a fraudulent ranking. They have feasted on an easy schedule with all of their tough games at home or on a neutral. They have played two true road games, losing to Washington and only beating Coastal Carolina by 12. This is by far their toughest test of the season Tuesday night.
Texas Tech is 8-0 at home this season and winning by 21.4 points per game. The Red Raiders are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite. The home team has won six straight in this series and is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take Texas Tech Tuesday.
|01-07-20||Villanova v. Creighton -1.5||64-59||Loss||-109||10 h 38 m||Show|
15* Villanova/Creighton Big East ANNIHILATOR on Creighton -1.5
This is the best Creighton team that Greg McDermott has had in recent memory. The Bluejays are off to a 12-3 start this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in all of college basketball.
Indeed, the Bluejays have won 15 straight home games dating back to last season and are 11-0 at home this season while winning by 17.6 points per game. They beat Marquette by 17 in their last home games, the same Marquette team that Villanova just lost to by 11 on the road.
Villanova is a very young team that is starting two freshmen for the first time since 2002. The Wildcats are just 4-3 SU & 1-6 ATS in their seven games played away from home this year. They are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games with a 25-point loss at Ohio, a failure to cover at St. Joe’s and that 11-point loss at Marquette.
Villanova is 0-6 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season. Creighton is 11-1 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road underdog over the last three years. They are winning by 20.5 points per game in this spot. The Wildcats are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Take Creighton Tuesday.
|01-06-20||Bucks v. Spurs +7.5||104-126||Win||100||8 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5
I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight. This is a home-and-home situation with the Milwaukee Bucks. After losing 118-127 in Milwaukee on Saturday, the Spurs now only have to wait two days for revenge and are catching 7.5 points at home in the rematch. I expect them to take the Bucks to the wire and possibly pull off the upset.
The Spurs have been a great team to back following a loss, which shows the resiliency of this team and the coaching of Popovich. The Spurs are now 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. San Antonio is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games as a home underdog as well.
San Antonio is 35-14 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. The Spurs are 25-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more over the last two years. San Antonio is 30-7 ATS revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. It is coming back to win by 7.8 points per game in this spot. Roll with the Spurs Monday.
|01-06-20||Jazz -3 v. Pelicans||128-126||Loss||-109||8 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3
The Utah Jazz are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. They are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming by 3 points at Miami. They have covered seven straight coming in and I believe they make it seven in a row tonight.
The Pelicans are also playing well in going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. But they could be without their best player tonight in Jrue Holiday, who is questionable with an elbow injury. And it’s a bad spot for them playing their 3rd game in 4 days after a back-to-back at the Lakers and Kings on Friday and Saturday.
The Jazz own the Pelicans, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. More impressively, the Jazz are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six trips to New Orleans winning by 10, 21, 17, 24, 33 and 12 points. They have won those six games by an average of 19.5 points per game.
The Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Pelicans are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games playing on one days’ rest. New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games. The Jazz are 15-5-3 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in New Orleans. Take the Jazz Monday.
|01-06-20||Miami-OH +14 v. UL-Lafayette||Top||17-27||Win||100||69 h 36 m||Show|
20* Miami Ohio/LA-Lafayette Lending Tree Bowl No-Brainer on Miami Ohio +14
The Miami Ohio Redhawks just won the MAC Championship by upsetting Central Michigan in the title game as underdogs. And now head coach Chuck Martin gets to play the disrespect card again with this team in the Lending Tree Bowl as 14-point underdogs to Louisiana-Lafayette.
Miami Ohio played the tougher schedule than Louisiana and certainly isn’t 14 points worse in my book. They aren’t a flashy team with an average offense that doesn’t blow you away. But they do two things that are more important, which is play defense and get great plays from special teams. They have a Top 5 special teams unit in the country. And their defense has been solid in giving up 380.5 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play this season.
Lafayette is the flashy team with the explosive offense that puts up 38.8 points per game. But I question their motivation in this game. They just lost to Appalachian State by 7 points for a second straight year in the Sun Belt Championship Game. That was their Super Bowl, while this will be just another game for them. They know they are heavy favorites and expected to win, so I question their motivation because of it.
It’s only the 2nd bowl game in 9 seasons for the Redhawks, so they are obviously excited to be here. They nearly upset Mississippi State in 2016 as 14-point underdogs in a 16-17 defeat in their last bowl game.
Chuck Martin is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as the coach of Miami Ohio. The Redhawks are 11-1 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two seasons. Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games and 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games as an underdog. Bet Miami Ohio Monday.
|01-05-20||Purdue v. Illinois -1||Top||37-63||Win||100||19 h 35 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois -1
The Illinois Fighting Illini are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. It’s Year 3 of this rebuilding project for head coach Brad Underwood and the payoffs are starting to show with this veteran group that returned four starters this year.
The Fighting Illini are off to a 9-5 start against a very tough schedule. They have gone 8-1 at home this season while outscoring opponents by 22.5 points per game, and I think it will be a raucous atmosphere at Illinois tonight. They beat Michigan 71-62 in their lone home game against a Big Ten opponent this season.
Purdue lost a lot from the team that made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament last year. The Boilermakers are also 9-5, but they have some really bad losses. They lost by 14 to Nebraska, by 9 to Butler, by 10 to Marquette and at home to Texas. They also lost to Florida State on a neutral.
Purdue usually has a rebounding edge against everyone they play, but they won’t against Illinois. The Fighting Illini are averaging 12 more boards than their opponents this season as one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. And after shooting just 29.3% in a loss at Michigan State last time out, the Fighting Illini can’t possibly shoot as poorly at home this time around.
Purdue is 4-15 ATS in road games off a conference win over the last three seasons. The Boilermakers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Sunday games. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Fighting Illini are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games. Illinois is 5-1 ATS in its last six games off an ATS loss. Bet Illinois Sunday.
|01-05-20||Blazers v. Heat -5.5||111-122||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat -5.5
The Miami Heat are coming off a bad 20-point loss at Orlando. But it was the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Raptors the previous night. It was a clearly letdown spot and a bad spot given the rest advantage for Orlando.
Now the Heat return home highly motivated for a win. And the Heat have had one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA this season. They are 16-1 SU & 11-5-1 ATS at home while outscoring opponents by 11.6 points per game. They should have no problem covering this short 5.5-point spread against the Blazers.
The Blazers have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season. They are 15-21 overall and 7-12 on the road and were desperate enough to sign Carmelo Anthony off the streets. It hasn’t gotten any better with Anthony as the Blazers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their only win coming against a G-League team in Washington. All five losses came by 6 points or more, including losses to the Knicks, Suns and Pelicans.
The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. Miami is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 home games. The heat are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss. Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a loss by more than 10 points. Take the Heat Sunday.
|01-05-20||Seahawks v. Eagles +2.5||Top||17-9||Loss||-110||42 h 2 m||Show|
25* Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles +2.5
I’ve been fading the Seahawks with a lot of success here down the stretch. I spotted that they were frauds a long time ago, and that is still my belief. I’m going to fade them on the road here against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card round as well for many of the same reasons.
The Seahawks are 10-2 in one-score games this season, which is unsustainable. Russell Wilson doesn’t have the ‘clutch gene’ like everyone thinks. He was 31-33 in one-score games coming into this season in his career. The Seahawks have a +7 point differential for the entire season, which is closer to an 8-8 team than one that is 11-5. They are complete frauds.
The real Seahawks have shown over the last four weeks. They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They lost by 16 to the Rams as 1-point road dogs, only beat the hapless Panthers 30-24 as 6.5-point road favorites, were upset by the Cardinals 13-27 as 9.5-point home favorites and lost to the 49ers 21-26 at home as 3.5-point dogs. That loss to the 49ers was devastating as it meant they’d have to go on the road in the wild card instead of hosting a game. And they came up just inches short. It’s tough to bounce back from a loss like that.
The Eagles found themselves needing to win their final four games just to make the playoffs. That’s exactly what they did despite all their injuries. They went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS with their final two games being the most impressive. They beat the Cowboys 17-9 at home and gained 431 yards while allowing just 311 yards, outgaining them by 120 yards. And last week they handled their business in a 34-17 win at the Giants with 400 total yards.
Despite all the injuries, this offense is flowing behind some great play from Carson Wentz with four straight games of 400-plus yards of offense. They are far from broken, and they are finding different ways to move the football and score points behind the genius of head coach Doug Pederson. And they will get Miles Sanders back this week, and could get both Zach Ertz and Lane Johnson back.
A big reason the Seahawks have struggled down the stretch is injuries, too. They have injuries all over their defense at all three levels. And their offense lost their top two running backs, which prompted them to sign Marshawn Lynch off the street. They certainly miss Josh Gordon as well since he was suspended.
It’s also easy to see the Seahawks are a fraudulent team when you look at their numbers. They are just 26th in total defense, giving up 381.6 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season. They are actually getting outgained by 7.2 yards per play on the season. And their running game has taken a big hit here down the stretch with all these injuries to their running backs and along the offensive line.
The Seahawks won’t be able to run on the Eagles, either. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 90.1 yards per game rushing. And the Eagles deserved to win their first meeting with the Seahawks, losing 9-17 at home despite committing five turnovers. I have a hard time believing they are going to come anywhere close to committing five turnovers again, and thus the result will be in their favor this time around.
The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog. Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in its last six January games. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games. Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually.
|01-05-20||Vikings v. Saints -7.5||Top||26-20||Loss||-110||38 h 27 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Saints NFC No-Brainer on New Orleans -7.5
The New Orleans Saints are on a mission this season to make amends for coming up just short of the Super Bowl. Granted, the refs robbed them of any chance to go to the Super Bowl in the NFC Championship Game, but they fell short none the less. I’ve never seen a team more motivated than this New Orleans Saints will be to start the playoffs this week.
The Saints have been playing like Super Bowl contenders in the second half of the season. They are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with five of those six wins coming by 8 points or more. They are outscoring their opponents by 13.6 points per game in their last seven games with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal to the 49ers.
Drew Brees is playing some of the best football of his career. This potent Saints offense has put up 26-plus points in seven straight games and an average of 36.3 points per game during this stretch. They should feast on a weak Minnesota defense that is giving up 65.6% completions and 234 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Vikings have injuries at cornerback that are going to make it very difficult for them to slow down Brees and company.
I’m also concerned about this Minnesota offense. It’s well documented how poorly Kirk Cousins has played in big games, and that has continued this season. He lost to the Packers twice, the Chiefs and the Seahawks. Cousins went 1-4 against playoff teams this year with his only win coming at home against the Eagles.
A lot has been made of the Vikings getting Dalvin Cook back from injury this week, but he’s far from 100%. And a lot has also been made of the Vikings getting Adam Thielen back recently from a hamstring injury, but he’s also a shell of his former self. Thielen has just four receptions for 52 yards in his last four healthy games. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Cousins to match Brees score for score, and I just don’t think he’s capable.
The Saints also want to avenge the ‘Minnesota Miracle’ when the Vikings scored on the final play of the game to beat them in the 2017-18 season, 29-24. It’s another reason why I’ve never seen a team more motivated than these Saints.
Wild card favorites of more than 7 points are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS since 2005. The Vikings are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog. The Saints are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Saints Sunday.
Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually.
|01-05-20||Richmond v. Rhode Island -2||69-61||Loss||-107||2 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island -2
The Rhode Island Rams are coming off a bad upset road loss to Brown as 7.5-point favorites. It was by far their worse performance of the season. Their other three losses came to LSU, West Virginia and Maryland all on the road.
Now the Rams are back home and highly motivated for a victory. This is a veteran Rams team that I’ve been backing a lot because they returned all five starters. And Rhode Island is 6-0 at home this season.
Richmond is 11-3, and while that record looks nice, it has come against the 219th-ranked schedule in the country. Rhode Island has played the 72nd-toughest schedule, a difference of nearly 150 spots in strength of schedule. I believe playing the tougher schedule will benefit the Rams heading into conference play today.
Rhode Island is 8-1 ATS in home games off two consecutive overs over the last three seasons. The Spiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games off an ATS loss. Rhode Island has won its last two meetings with Richmond by 18 points at home and by 11 points on the road. Roll with Rhode Island Sunday.
|01-04-20||Titans +5 v. Patriots||20-13||Win||100||22 h 47 m||Show|
15* Titans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +5
It’s obvious there’s something seriously wrong with the New England Patriots in 2019-20 compared to in years’ past. They just lost to the Miami Dolphins as 17-point home favorites with a first-round bye on the line. That never used to happen. And now I don’t expect them to make easy work of the Tennessee Titans, a much better team than Miami.
It’s a Titans team I’ve been riding a lot down the stretch because they are better than they get credit for. The Titans have gone 7-3 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their 10 games since Ryan Tannehill took over. Tannehill has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league, completing 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging a whopping 9 yards per attempt.
Having Tannehill as a threat passing has really opened up the running game for Derrick Henry, who led the NFL in rushing this year. The Titans have rushed for at least 149 yards in seven straight games while averaging a whopping 188 rushing yards per game during this seven-game stretch. The Titans are also averaging 33.4 points per game in their last seven. This offense is a juggernaut, but the betting public is failing to realize it.
New England has a great defense, but it has come against the worst schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL. They have played the 30th-ranked schedule in the league overall. And their defense was lit up for 27 points and 389 total yards by the Miami Dolphins last week. I won’t argue that the Patriots don’t still have a solid defense, but the problem is on the other side of the ball.
Tom Brady just hasn’t been himself and certainly doesn’t have the weapons he needs to be successful this year. The offensive line isn’t getting the push they need either as the Patriots have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in half their games. The Patriots are averaging just 5.2 yards per play, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. The Titans are averaging 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 4th in the NFL.
Tennessee is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival. The Titans made easy work of the Texans last week, while the Patriots fought tooth and nail to try and beat the Dolphins. I think that will make the Titans the fresher team this week. There’s value here on the road underdog. Take the Titans Saturday.
|01-04-20||Cincinnati v. Tulane +8||71-76||Win||100||6 h 11 m||Show|
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane +8
Ron Hunter is quickly turning around this Tulane program just as he did at Georgia State and IUPUI before. It’s a Green Wave team that got some great transfers and is one of the most improved teams in the country under Hunter.
Tulane is 8-5 this season and highly motivated for a win off three straight losses by 1 to Akron, by 4 to Towson and by 11 to Memphis. If they lose today to Cincinnati, it will certainly go down to the wire.
Cincinnati lost head coach Mick Cronin and has struggled this season to an 8-5 start. They lost to Iowa, Colgate, Xavier, Bowling Green and Ohio State. They also nearly lost to Illinois State (won by 1), Valpo (won by 4) and UNLV (won by 7). It’s not a team that can be trusted to go on the road and win by 8-plus points against a quality opponent in Tulane here.
Cincinnati only has two days to get ready for Tulane after last playing on January 1st, while Tulane has four days to prepare for Cincinnati after last playing on December 30th.
Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last two seasons. Tulane is 11-2 ATS when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) over the last two years. The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games off an ATS win. Cincinnati is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a favorite. Roll with Tulane Saturday.
|01-04-20||West Virginia +10.5 v. Kansas||53-60||Win||100||6 h 10 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on West Virginia +10.5
It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Kansas Jayhawks, who have covered six of their last seven games coming in. Now they are laying double-digits to a West Virginia team that can muck it up and keep this game close with their style of play.
West Virginia is one of the most improved teams in the country. The Mountaineers are 11-1 this season with their only loss coming by two points 68-70 at St. John’s. They have impressive wins over Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Pitt and Ohio State this season. Take West Virginia Saturday.
|01-04-20||Grizzlies +10.5 v. Clippers||140-114||Win||100||6 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis Grizzlies +10.5
The Memphis Grizzlies have some great young talent and it’s starting to show now that they are healthy. The Grizzlies are 7-6 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They will give the Clippers a run for their money today.
Helping out the Grizzlies is the fact that the Clippers are not healthy. They are down two starters today in Paul George and Patrick Beverly. They will miss George’s scoring as he has picked up right where he left off last season in OKC. And Beverly is a pest defensively that will be missed guarding Rookie of the Year favorite JA Morant.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (Memphis) - a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Clippers are 3-12 ATS off two consecutive covers as a favorite over the last two seasons. The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games off a loss. Memphis is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games off a win. Roll with the Grizzlies Saturday.
|01-04-20||Villanova v. Marquette||Top||60-71||Win||100||4 h 11 m||Show|
20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Marquette PK
I like backing Marquette at home today where they just have to win this game to cover against Villanova. The Golden Eagles are 7-0 at home this season and winning by 22.1 points per game.
Villanova is just 1-5 ATS in all games played away from home this year. In their two true road games, they failed to cover as 15-point favorites at St. Joe’s and lost 51-76 at Ohio State.
Marquette is 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive overs. The Wildcats are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. Take Marquette Saturday.
|01-04-20||Iowa v. Penn State -2.5||86-89||Win||100||4 h 10 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -2.5
Penn State has the best team they’ve had in years. They are off to an 11-2 start this season with one of their losses coming on the road at Ohio State. They other was a 2-point loss to Ole Miss on a neutral after they blew a 20-plus point lead.
The wins have been impressive. The Nittany Lions have beaten Maryland, Alabama, Wake Forest and Yale at home as well as a a road win at Georgetown and a neutral win over Syracuse. They’ve played a brutal schedule and have proven themselves against it.
Now they take on Iowa in what is technically a neutral site game but the Nittany Lions will have home-court advantage due to being played in Philadelphia. It’s an Iowa team that has also been impressive, but they have lost when they have stepped up in class. They lost by 15 at home to DePaul, by 10 at San Diego State and by 12 at Michigan.
Iowa is 1-8 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. Penn State is 9-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last two years. The Hawkeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games off a win by more than 20 points. The Nittany Loins are 16-6-2 ATS in their last 24 games overall. Roll with Penn State Saturday.
|01-04-20||Providence v. DePaul -2.5||66-65||Loss||-109||4 h 10 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on DePaul -2.5
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the DePaul Blue Demons. They got off to a hot start this season but have cooled off since, going 0-3 ATS in their last three games. They are coming off a loss to Seton Hall, which is one of the best teams in the country.
Now the Blue Demons are back home against a Providence team they should handle. Providence is 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in all games played away from home this year. That includes neutral site losses to Long Beach State, College of Charleston and Florida as well as road losses to Northwestern and Rhode Island. They were favored in four of those five losses and lost by 32 to Florida.
The Friars are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games off an ATS win. Providence is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games. DePaul is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite. The Blue Demons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Bet DePaul Saturday.
|01-04-20||Kansas State v. Oklahoma -7||61-66||Loss||-108||3 h 11 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -7
The Oklahoma Sooners get Kristian Doolittle back from suspension today for their Big 12 opener against Kansas State. I expect them to roll at home today, where they are 5-0 on the season.
Kansas State is way down from last year with all they lost. They are just 7-5 SU & 4-8 ATS in all games, including 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games. It will be just their second true road game of the season. They lost on a neutral to Pitt, Bradley, Mississippi State and Saint Louis, four teams that aren’t as good as Oklahoma.
The home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings. The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. Kansas State is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. The Sooners are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Oklahoma Saturday.
|01-04-20||Tulane -7 v. Southern Miss||30-13||Win||100||13 h 36 m||Show|
15* Tulane/Southern Miss Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Tulane -7
I believe the Tulane Green Wave will be highly motivated for a victory in the Lending Tree Bowl. They lost three straight and five of their final six to fall to 6-6 on the season. They want to end the season with a winning record, and I love betting on 6-6 teams in bowl season because of that reason.
Keep in mind that Tulane’s losses down the stretch came against a brutal schedule. They suffered road losses to Memphis, Navy, Temple and SMU as well as a 3-point home loss to UCF. That’s four 10-win teams and a Temple team that was very tough to beat at home all season.
With that schedule, it’s no surprised that Tulane played the tougher slate of these tewo teams. Their schedule ranked 38 spots harder than Southern Miss. It’s a Golden Eagles team that had a chance to play in the C-USA title game late in the season. But they lost their final two games in blowout fashion. They lost by 18 at home to Western Kentucky as 3-point favorites. They also lost by 17 at Florida Atlantic as 9-point dogs.
Southern Miss only beat one bowl team all season, and that was a bad UAB team that lost their starting QB to injury early in the game. The other six wins came against Alcorn State, Troy, UTEP, North Texas, Rice and UTSA. Basically every time they stepped up in class they lost as the five losses all came by 15 points or more.
Tulane had some impressive stats for a 6-6 team. The Green Wave averaged 33.3 points and 455.2 yards per game while giving up 27.4 points and 378.5 yards per game. They outgained their opposition by 76.7 yards per game on the season, which is impressive when you consider how difficult their schedule was.
Willie Fritz is 27-13 ATS as a favorite in all games he has coached. The Green Wave are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite. Tulane is 4-0 ATS in its last four games off an ATS loss. The Green Wave are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. C-USA opponents. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Tulane Saturday.
|01-03-20||Pelicans +10.5 v. Lakers||Top||113-123||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
20* Pelicans/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +10.5
The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They have three straight wins over three of the better teams in the NBA in the Pacers, Rockets and Nuggets.
Now the Pelicans want to avenge their 110-114 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on November 27th in their first and only meeting this season. There are a lot of former Lakers on this Pelicans team, so they will always be motivated to face their former team, especially this season.
The Lakers are 5-4 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. They have just one win by more than 10 points during this stretch, and that was a 13-point win. They will have a hard time covering this big number tonight against a Pelicans team that is playing very well.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (New Orleans) - a well rested team playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Lakers are 7-21 ATS vs. teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game over the last two seasons. Bet the Pelicans Friday.
|01-03-20||Wisconsin v. Ohio State -7||61-57||Loss||-108||6 h 10 m||Show|
15* Wisconsin/Ohio State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -7
The Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off a loss to West Virginia. Now they return home highly motivated for a win against the Wisconsin Badgers in Big Ten play Friday night. Look for them to make easy work of the Badgers.
The Buckeyes are legitimately one of the best teams in the country. They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their nine home games this season while outscoring opponents by 27.0 points per game. They beat Penn State by 32 in their lone conference home game.
Wisconsin is starting to get some respect for its three-game winning streak. But the Badgers are just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in all games played away from home this year. They are scoring just 58.7 points per game on the highway. They lost to New Mexico, Richmond and St. Mary’s on a neutral and lost by 15 at NC State and by 7 at Rutgers.
Ohio State is 8-0 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season. The Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Buckeyes are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The favorite is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take Ohio State Friday.
|01-03-20||Ohio -9 v. Nevada||30-21||Push||0||3 h 41 m||Show|
15* Ohio/Nevada Potato Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Ohio -9
The Ohio Bobcats have been dominant in their last two bowl games. They have outscored UAB and San Diego State a combined 68-6 the past two seasons. And they just blasted Bowling Green by 42 and Akron by 49 in their final two games to close out the regular season.
It’s the final game for Ohio senior QB Nathan Roarke, so you know he is going to want to put on a big performance. He has another great season with 20 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. Roarke also rushed for 780 yards and 12 scored to lead this explosive Ohio offense.
Nevada has to be one of the most fraudulent 7-5 teams I’ve ever season. They were outscored by nearly 11 points per game this season and were also outgunned by 1.2 yards per play. They lost by 71 to Oregon, by 51 to Hawaii, by 26 to Utah State and by 28 to Wyoming. And now they have four defensive starters suspended for this bowl game. I think they’ll be in over their heads here in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Ohio) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 440 yards per game against a bad defense that allows 390 to 440 yards per game after 7-plus games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game are 38-9 (80.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Ohio is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games. The Bobcats are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games. Roll with Ohio Friday.
|01-02-20||Oregon v. Colorado +1.5||Top||65-74||Win||100||9 h 18 m||Show|
20* Oregon/Colorado ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Colorado +1.5
The Colorado Buffaloes have one of the best home-court advantages in the Pac-12 and in all of college basketball for that matter. They returned all five starters this year are are off to an 11-2 start, including a 6-1 record at home. They will be highly motivated for a win tonight with 4th-ranked Oregon coming to town.
The Oregon Ducks are certainly one of the better teams in the country as well at 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS on the season. I just think this is a great spot to fade them, especially when you consider Colorado is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with Oregon. They beat Oregon 73-51 as nearly identical 1-point home dogs last season.
Colorado is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 home games lined +3 to PK. The Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Colorado is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 home games overall. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bet Colorado Thursday.
|01-02-20||Thunder v. Spurs -2||Top||109-103||Loss||-105||9 h 53 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs -2
The San Antonio Spurs would actually be in the playoffs if the season ended today. They are playing well over the last month in going 7-4 SU & 6-4-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall dating back to December 3rd. It’s a rested team that has had a lot of time off over the past month.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are also playing well in going 7-1 in their last eight games overall. But now they are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers here as only 2-point road dogs. And it’s definitely a potential letdown spot off three straight narrow wins over the Hornets, Raptors and Mavericks by a combined 8 points.
The Spurs are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Thunder. San Antonio is 21-9 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. The Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Spurs Thursday.
|01-02-20||Dayton v. La Salle +11||84-58||Loss||-110||9 h 48 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on La Salle +11
The No. 20 Dayton Flyers are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers for their Top 25 ranking. They have opened 11-2 but have now failed to cover three of their last four. I think it’s time to continue ’selling high’ on the Flyers tonight.
They should not be laying double-digits on the road against a solid La Salle team in this conference rivalry. It’s a La Salle team that has been one of the most underrated in the country and continues to fly under the radar. The Explorers are 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS this season.
La Salle only lost by 5 to Temple as 6-point dogs and by 11 on the road to Villanova as 18-point dogs to show that they can play with good teams. They will prove it again tonight as they give Dayton a run for its money at home. And they have the rest and preparation advantage. The Explorers come in on four days’ rest, while the Flyers come in on only two days’ rest.
La Salle is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 60 points or less in three straight games coming in. Dayton is 9-22 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons. The Explorers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season. La Salle is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. The Explorers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Take La Salle Thursday.
|01-02-20||Raptors v. Heat -5||76-84||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* Raptors/Heat NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Miami -5
The Miami Heat had won five straight including wins over Philadelphia (twice), Indiana and Utah. Then they laid an egg on Monday and lost outright as a 14-point favorite against Washington’s G-League team.
It’s safe to say the Heat are going to come back highly motivated for a win at home tonight over the Toronto Raptors after getting that wake-up call. And they will be fresh and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest. The Heat are 15-1 at home this season and winning by nearly 12 points per game.
The Raptors are in a much tougher spot here. They will be playing their 4th game in 6 days and are already playing short-handed. The Raptors remain without their best player in Pacal Siakam, starter Marc Gasol and key reserve Norman Powell. I don’t think they will be able to hang with Miami tonight without these three.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Toronto) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in their last three games against an opponent that was beaten by 24 or more points against the spread in their last three are 41-16 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Miami is 11-0 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. They are winning by 15.0 points per game in this spot. Roll with the Heat Thursday.
|01-02-20||Tennessee -2 v. Indiana||Top||23-22||Loss||-110||57 h 25 m||Show|
25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -2
The Tennessee Vols are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2016. They were a juggernaut to close out the season going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their only loss was a road loss to Alabama as a 34.5-point dog and they actually played the Crimson Tide tough for a half.
Tennessee pulled four outright upsets during this 6-1 stretch and the team is really buying into head coach Jeremy Pruitt. The Vols beat four bowl eligible teams this year and played a much tougher schedule than Indiana did. And they will be playing in SEC country in Jacksonville, so they should have a home-field advantage.
Indiana had a great year as well with an 8-4 season. But the Hoosiers’ eight wins all came against non-bowl teams. They went 0-4 against the bowl teams they did play and weren’t really that competitive in them losing those four games by a combined 82 points, or by an average of 20.5 points per game.
Tennessee is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 road games after two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Indiana is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four bowl games. The Hoosiers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games. The Vols are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Tennessee Thursday.
|01-02-20||Rhode Island -7.5 v. Brown||75-85||Loss||-110||7 h 18 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Rhode Island -7.5
The Rhode Island Rams are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They returned all five starters this season and are off to an 8-3 start. Their only three losses all came on the road against Maryland, West Virginia & LSU. They beat Alabama by 14 and Providence by 14 as well.
Rhode Island should handle this Brown team that is just 5-6 on the season. All six losses for Brown have come by 11 points or more. They lost by 21 to Sacred Heart, by 12 to UMass-Lowell, by 20 to Navy, by 16 to Stony Brook, by 11 to St. John’s and by 25 to Duke. Those results alone show they can’t hang with Rhode Island. But their five wins have come against Bryant (by 2), Canisius (by 7), Quinnipiac (by 2), New Jersey Tech and Merrimack.
Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Brown) - after scoring 50 points or less against an opponent that scored 80 points or more in two straight games are 54-24 (69.2%) ATS since 1997.
The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games off an ATS win. Roll with Rhode Island Thursday.
|01-02-20||Boston College +7.5 v. Cincinnati||Top||6-38||Loss||-110||53 h 25 m||Show|
20* Boston College/Cincinnati Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on Boston College +7.5
The Boston College Eagles clearly want to be playing in a bowl game after missing out on a bowl last year. They showed that in the season finale as they went into Pitt and came away with an upset road win as 7.5-point underdogs to improved to 6-6 on the season.
Now the Eagles fit into one of my favorite systems. It’s betting on 6-6 teams in bowl games who are off a SU win as an underdog. Those teams have gone 70% ATS in bowl games since 2000. Also, 6-6 teams playing an opponent with 9 or more wins are 22-9 ATS since 2000. Both systems make sense because almost always that 6-6 team is the more motivated team.
Cincinnati had higher hopes than playing in the Birmingham Bowl. The Bearcats were neck-and-neck with Memphis for a New Year’s 6 Bowl. But they lost to Memphis twice, once in the regular season finale and again in the AAC Championship Game. They had a chance to win both those games in the 4th quarter but came up short. I really question their motivation now having to play a 6-6 Boston College team that they cannot be too excited for.
I think this line has been adjusted too much for Boston College having an interim head coach in Rich Gunnell and also for RB AJ Dillon sitting out. Backup RB David Bailey rushed for 811 yards and average 5.8 yards per carry this season. Dillon only averaged 5.3 yards per carry, so Bailey was actually the more explosive back.
Boston College is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last two seasons. Cincinnati is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games. Take Boston College Thursday.
|01-01-20||Wisconsin v. Oregon +3||Top||27-28||Win||100||32 h 34 m||Show|
20* Wisconsin/Oregon Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Oregon +3
Oregon was really close to being 12-0 this season. They had last-second losses to both Arizona State and Auburn on the road. They are probably the fourth-best team in the country and would have made the four-team playoff if they would have won either of those games.
I think the wrong team is favored in this game. Oregon showed it could handle the physicality of both Auburn and Utah, two teams that are similar to this physical Wisconsin team. They thumped Utah 37-15 in the Pac-12 Championship and dominated at the line of scrimmage. RB CJ Verdell rushed for 208 yards on the Utes. QB Justin Herbert will be the best player on the field and wants to improve his draft stock. And Oregon will also have the speed advantage.
Wisconsin is obviously happy to be playing the Rose Bowl, but they have to feel a little deflated from not winning a Big Ten Championship. They had Ohio State down 21-7 at half, but gave up 27 unanswered points and lost 21-34. And don’t forget they lost to Illinois as a 29-point favorite.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Wisconsin) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game against an opponent that outgained its last opponents by 125 or more yards are 74-32 (69.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Oregon is 48-24 ATS in its last 72 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Ducks are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games playing with two or more weeks of rest. Oregon is 45-14 ATS in its last 59 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. Bet Oregon Wednesday.
|01-01-20||Fresno State +13 v. San Diego State||52-61||Win||100||4 h 59 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Fresno State +13
The San Diego State Aztecs head into the new year overvalued due to their 13-0 SU & 8-3 ATS records. Now they’re laying 13 points here to Fresno State, which is simply too much.
Fresno State heads into 2020 undervalued at 4-9 SU & 4-6 ATS. But the Bulldogs have been a lot more competitive than their record would indicate. Indeed, seven of their nine losses came by 7 points or less. The only exceptions were a 10-point loss to St. Mary’s on a neutral and a 14-point loss at Oregon.
Fresno State hasn’t lost by more than 12 points in any of its last 12 meetings with San Diego State. That makes for a perfect 12-0 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to this 13-point spread. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in road games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. Roll with Fresno State Wednesday.
|01-01-20||Minnesota v. Auburn -7||31-24||Loss||-100||27 h 24 m||Show|
15* Minnesota/Auburn Outback Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -7
The Auburn Tigers have a huge talent edge over the Minnesota Golden Gophers in this one. And most of their future NFL players are expected to play in the Outback Bowl, including two outstanding defensive linemen in Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson. It appears Auburn is ‘all in’ for this game.
The Tigers had a great 9-3 season against the nation’s 2nd-toughest schedule. They had to play Oregon out of conference and beat them. They beat Alabama and Texas A&M. And their three losses came to LSU, Florida and Georgia all on the road and all against 10-win teams.
To compare, Minnesota played the 61st-ranked schedule in the country. That’s a 60-spot difference compared to Auburn in strength of schedule. They played in the weak Big Ten West division and played one of the easiest non-conference schedules you will ever see against South Dakota State, Fresno and Georgia Southern. And the Golden Gophers aren’t as good as their 10-2 record as they won five games by 7 points or less.
Minnesota’s three wins against bowl teams came against Penn State by 5, Georgia Southern by 3 and Illinois. And this will be the toughest team that Minnesota will have faced all season. The other was Wisconsin, and they were manhandled at home by the Badgers and lost by 21 points. They will struggle with Auburn’s physicality at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball as well.
Auburn boasts an elite defense that gives up 18.6 points, 323.9 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play. Teams didn’t have much success throwing against them, and Minnesota is going to need to be able to throw it. Auburn held teams to 5.9 yards per attempt, 1.8 yards per attempt than they normally average. They also held teams to 3.4 yards per carry, which is 1.7 yards per carry less than they normally average.
Auburn is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite. Auburn is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall. Gus Malzahn is 18-8 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game as the coach of Auburn. I believe the Golden Gophers will be in over their heads here. Take Auburn Wednesday.
|12-31-19||Texas +7 v. Utah||Top||38-10||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
20* Texas/Utah Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on Texas +7
I question Utah’s motivation playing in the Alamo Bowl. The Utes would have made the four-team playoff had they beaten Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship. Instead, they got embarrassed 15-37. It’s not a great consolation prize for them to be playing in the Alamo Bowl now.
Texas is looking to build something going into next year. And we saw the Longhorns win outright as 13.5-point underdogs in the Sugar Bowl last year. Georgia wasn’t motivated for that game and was in a similar position to the one Utah is in this year. Georgia missed out on the 4-team playoff with their loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship.
Tom Herman thrives in the role of the underdog. He is 15-5 ATS as a dog as a head coach. He’s also 3-0 in bowl games with three outright wins as an underdog. He beat Georgia last year and also beat Missouri 33-16 as 3-point dogs in 2017. He also beat Florida State 38-24 as 7-point dogs when at Houston in 2015 in the Peach Bowl.
Sam Ehlinger is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He has completed 65.1% of his passes with a 29-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season. He has rushed for 590 yards and six scores as well.
The Pac-12 is just 5-19-1 ATS in bowl games the last four seasons. Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as an underdog. Texas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games overall. Bet Texas Tuesday.
|12-31-19||Georgetown v. Providence +1.5||60-76||Win||100||6 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +1.5
The Georgetown Hoyas are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. It’s time to ‘sell high’ on them and fade them here as road favorites at Providence.
The Providence Friars got off to a slow start this season, but they rebounded with a 70-48 home win over Texas as 1-point favorites last time out. And now they’ve had nine days to get ready for Georgetown after last playing on December 21st. Meanwhile, Georgetown only has two days to get ready for Providence after facing American on December 28th.
Providence wants revenge on Georgetown after losing both meetings to them last year. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Second-leading scorer Mac McClung (15.5 PPG) is questionable to play for the Hoyas tonight.
Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Providence) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 48-20 (70.6%) ATS since 1997. Take Providence Tuesday.
|12-31-19||Georgia State v. Wyoming -7||17-38||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* Georgia State/Wyoming Arizona Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Wyoming -7
The Wyoming Cowboys were bowl eligible last year, but they were left out of a bowl game. There’s no question they are happy to be going bowling this year and will show up for this Arizona bowl in their part of the country.
Wyoming played a much tougher schedule than Georgia State did. And the Cowboys have the much better defense in this matchup. Wyoming allowed just 17.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play this season. Georgia State gave up 36.1 points per game and 6.7 yards per play this year.
Both teams struggled down the stretch, but Wyoming was at least competitive in losing three of its last four. All four losses came on the road to Boise State, Utah State and Air Force, and they were in every one of those games in the 4th quarter. Georgia State was not competitive in losing three of its last four. They lost by 14 to Louisiana-Monroe, by 29 to Appalachian State and by 28 to Georgia Southern.
There’s one hidden factor here that is getting overlooked. Georgia State QB Dan Ellington was a stud through the first nine games of the season before tearing his ACL. He rushed for 70 yards per game in the first nine games and was a great dual-threat. But since playing the last three games on a torn ACL, Ellington has rushed for a total of -5 yards in his last three games. I don’t think his injury is being factored into this line enough.
Wyoming is 14-4 ATS when the total is 42.5 to 49 over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Sun Belt opponents. Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. The Panthers are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Wyoming Tuesday.