20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rays/Orioles UNDER 8.5

I fully expect a pitcher's duel tonight between the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles. Two superb starters will be going at it in Tampa's David Price and Baltimore's Miguel Gonzalez. Both teams have been struggling at the plate, and that continues tonight.

The UNDER is 5-0 in the Rays last 5 games overall with a combined score of 7 runs or less in all five. The UNDER is 6-1 in the Orioles last 7 games overall with a combined score of 7 runs or fewer in six of seven. Tampa has scored 4 or fewer runs in seven of its last nine, while Baltimore has scored 4 of less in seven of eight.

Price is 13-4 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 19 starts this season. The hard-throwing left-hander has gone 5-0 with a 1.91 ERA while striking out 42 in 42 1/3 innings and holding opponents to a .189 average in his last six starts.

Miguel Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in three starts and three relief appearances. He's much better than he gets credit for.

Also, Price is 5-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 10 career starts against Baltimore. He has allowed one earned runs over 14 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Rays last 5 games overall and 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games overall. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Baltimore. The UNDER is 5-1 in Price's last 6 starts vs. Orioles. The UNDER is 5-0 in Rays last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. These five trends make for a 25-2 system backing the UNDER. Plus, the UNDER is 13-3 in Orioles last 16 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Dodgers/Cards NL Tuesday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +120

Any time you can get 2011 NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw as an underdog, you should take advantage. That's especially the case considering how well the Dodgers are playing right now. Los Angeles (53-44) has won five straight while scoring five or more runs in each victory.

Kershaw is 7-5 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.055 WHIP while striking out 132 batters in 134 2/3 innings over 20 starts this year. The left-hander is 4-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 10 career starts against St. Louis.

Adam Wainwright is 7-10 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.293 WHIP in 19 starts this season for St. Louis, including 4-5 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.433 WHIP in 10 home starts.

The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 39-17 in Kershaw's last 56 starts overall. The Cardinals are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. St. Louis is 7-21 in its last 28 vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 1-9 in Wainwright's last 10 starts with 5 days of rest. St. Louis is 0-4 in Wainwright's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Dodgers Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +103

The Washington Nationals are showing solid value as a small underdog to the New York Mets tonight. At 56-39 on the season and with three straight wins, the Nationals have showed no signs of slowing down. The Mets, meanwhile, have lost four straight and 10 of 11 overall.

Gio Gonzalez is having a tremendous season, going 12-5 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 19 starts this season. After giving up six earned runs over 3 1/3 innings against the Mets in his last start against them on July 19th, he'll be very motivated to get revenge tonight.

R.A. Dickey is having a solid year as well, but he's finally starting to come back down to reality. Dickey has posted a 6.05 ERA and 1.707 WHIP over his last three starts. He beat Gonzalez in that July 19th game, but gave up four runs and 11 base runners in the process.

The Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Washington is 7-1 in Gonzalez's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mets are 1-10 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The 0-7 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Nationals are 7-1 in their last 8 meetings in New York. These six trends make for a 44-4 system backing Washington. Roll with the Nationals Tuesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -120

The Detroit Tigers are absolutely rolling right now. They have won five straight and 13 of 15 to climb into first place in the AL Central division. I'll continue backing them at a great price tonight over the struggling Cleveland Indians, who have lost four of five.

Doug Fister is clearly the better starter in this one. The right-hander is 4-6 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last three. Fister is 3-2 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.924 WHIP in nine career starts against Cleveland.

Ubaldo Jimenez has struggled all season for Cleveland. The right-hander is 8-9 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in 19 starts, including 0-2 with a 14.63 ERA and 2.875 WHIP in his last two starts, allowing 13 earned runs, three homers and 23 base runners over 8 innings. Jimenez is 4-5 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.577 WHIP in nine career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 10-2 in their last 12 games as a favorite. Detroit is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series. The Indians are 0-6 in their last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Cleveland is 1-4 in Jimenez's last 5 starts. Bet the Tigers Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Rays +132

The Tampa Bay Rays should not be this big of an underdog to the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday. At 49-47 on the season, the Rays realize they need to start making a push if they want to get back to the postseason with a Wildcard berth.

Jeremy Hellickson is having another solid season at 4-6 with a 3.54 ERA on the year. He'll be up against Wei-Yin Chen, who is 8-5 with a 3.80 ERA on the season, and 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA in his last three starts.

Hellickson is 4-2 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in seven career starts against Baltimore. In his lone career start against Tampa, Chen gave up five earned runs and nine base runners over 5 2/3 innings of a 0-5 loss to the Rays on June 1st.

The Rays are a very profitable 8-3 (+8.3 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season. The Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series. Baltimore is 6-16 in their last 22 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Take the Rays Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on A's/Blue Jays UNDER 9.5

Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high tonight in this game between the Oakland A's and Toronto Blue Jays. Oakland has one of the best staffs in baseball, but it doesn't score many runs. Toronto remains without its best player in Jose Bautista, who is on the DL.

The A's are hitting just .228 and scoring 3.8 runs/game this season. The UNDER is 5-1 in their last 6 games overall as the A's and their opponents have combined for 9 runs or less in all six contests.

Travis Blackley is 2-2 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in eight starts this season for Oakland. While Brett Cecil (2-2, 6.34 ERA) has struggled this year for Toronto, he'll be up against a team he has owned tonight. The left-hander is 2-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in four career starts against Toronto.

The UNDER is 21-8 in A's last 29 games overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Blackley's last 5 starts as an underdog. The UNDER is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 7-0 in Blue Jays last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. These last three trends make for an 18-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in his game Tuesday.

20* Red Sox/Rangers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on OVER 10 (-121)

I fully expect a slugfest tonight in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league. The Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers feature two of the most potent line-ups in baseball, and I like both Felix Doubront and Scott Feldman to get rocked in this one.

Feldman is 3-6 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in 10 starts and six relief appearances this year. The right-hander is 2-6 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.543 WHIP in his 10 starts. In his lone career start against Boston, Feldman gave up 12 runs, 6 earned, and 13 base runners over 2 2/3 innings of a 17-19 loss.

Doubront has a very fortunate 10-4 record despite posting a 4.24 ERA and 1.363 WHIP over 18 starts in 2012 for the Red Sox. The left-hander has faced Texas before, giving up 4 runs, 2 earned, and nine base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 4-8 loss to the Rangers.

Both teams are averaging 5.0 runs/game this year, so with two below-average starters going, I see each team surpassing its season average in this one.

The OVER is 5-0 in Doubront's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. The OVER is 5-0-1 in Doubront's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 4-0 in Doubront's last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The OVER is 3-0-2 in the last 5 meetings. These four trends make for a 17-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Rangers/Angels ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8 (-115)

The Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels should easily combine to score nine-plus runs tonight. These are two of the best line-ups in baseball, and both Matt Harrison and Dan Haren are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.

Harrison is having a solid season at 12-4 with a 2.87 ERA, but this is certainly one team he struggles against. The left-hander is 2-2 with a 5.09 ERA in six career starts against Los Angeles.

Haren is 6-8 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 9.98 ERA and 1.957 WHIP in his last three starts. The right-hander is 4-9 with a 4.25 ERA in 18 career starts against Texas.

The OVER is 4-0 in Haren's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 5-1 in Haren's last 6 starts overall. The OVER is 3-0-1 in Haren's last 4 starts vs. Rangers. These three trends make for a 12-1 (92%) System backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Twins +130

Any time the Kansas City Royals are this heavy of a favorite, I'm certainly going to look into fading them. That's especially the case Sunday considering they will be sending one of the worst starters in the league to the mound to take on the Minnesota Twins.

Jeremy Guthrie is 3-8 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.762 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 1-4 with a 9.59 ERA and 1.934 WHIP in seven home starts. While Sam Deduno has posted a 5.59 ERA in two starts this season for the Twins, one of those starts came at Texas, which has arguably the best line-up in baseball.

The Twins are 15-8 (+14.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. Minnesota is 13-9 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season. The Royals are 2-11 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in home games in day games this season. Kansas City is 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win. Take the Twins Sunday.

15* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -116

The Pittsburgh Pirates have learned from their second-half collapse last season. They are not going to let it happen again, and I believe they go on to win the NL Central this year. Pittsburgh is 53-40 on the season after having won four straight coming in.

Miami has lost four straight, scoring a combined seven runs (1.8/game) in the process. The Marlins are without arguably their two best players in Giancarlo Stanton and Hanley Ramirez, making matters worse for their offense.

Jeff Karstens is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in seven starts this season for Pittsburgh, including 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.786 WHIP in two home starts. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in his lone career start against Miami.

The Pirates are an impressive 21-4 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. Pittsburgh is 23-5 in their last 28 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Pirates are 23-6 in their last 27 home games overall. The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Miami is 1-7 in Anibal Sanchez's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Pirates Sunday.

25* AL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago White Sox -116

The Chicago White Sox are showing their best value of the season Saturday as just a small road favorite over the Detroit Tigers. Leading Detroit by just a half-game for the AL Central lead after losing to Justin Verlander yesterday, the Sox will be very determined to stay in 1st place.

Once again, Chris Sale is not getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers. At 11-2 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in 16 starts this season, Sale is a legitimate AL Cy Young contender. The Sox clearly have a huge edge on the mound in this one.

Rick Porcello is 6-5 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in 18 starts this season for Detroit, including 2-3 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.608 WHIP in 10 home starts. The right-hander is also 4-4 with a 5.50 ERA in nine career starts against Chicago.

The White Sox are 8-0 against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Take this 15-0 system backing Chicago straight to the bank today. Bet the White Sox Saturday.

15* Rangers/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -135

The Los Angeles Angels should be a heavier home favorite tonight over the Texas Rangers with ace Jered Weaver on the mound. Los Angeles trails Texas by 6 games in the AL West, so this is easily its biggest series of the season and a Game 1 victory is a must.

Weaver is 11-1 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 6-0 with a miniscule 0.58 ERA and 0.557 WHIP in seven home starts. He'll be up against Derek Holland, who is 6-4 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in 13 starts this season.

The Angels are a perfect 7-0 in Weaver's 7 home starts this season. Los Angeles is 11-0 in Weaver's last 11 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Rangers are 1-10 in Holland's last 11 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Angels Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Twins +137

The Minnesota Twins are showing great value tonight against the lowly Kansas City Royals. Any time the Royals are this big of a favorite, it's always a good idea to look to fade them.

I know Nick Blackburn has struggled this season for the Twins, but this is one team that he likes facing. The right-hander went 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in four starts for Triple-A Rochester, winning his last two in impressive fashion. Blackburn is 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts against Kansas City.

Luke Hochevar should never be this big of a favorite against any team. The right-hander is 6-8 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.398 WHIP in 18 starts this season for the Royals, including 1-4 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in eight home starts. Hochevar is 4-4 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.410 WHIP in 12 career starts against Minnesota.

The Royals are 0-7 in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start this season. The Twins are a very profitable 14-8 (+12.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. Minnesota is 7-1 in Blackburn's last 8 starts, including 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The Royals are 0-5 in Hochevar's last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with Minnesota Friday.

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -142

The Washington Nationals should be a much bigger home favorite over the Atlanta Braves tonight. I'll take Stephen Strasburg at this kind of price at home almost every single time.

Strasburg is 10-4 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.105 WHIP with 135 strikeouts in 105 innings over 18 starts this year. He'll be up against Tommy Hanson, who is 10-5 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 19 starts, including 1-1 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in his last three.

The Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss. Washington is 7-1 in Strasburg's last 8 starts vs. National League East. The Nationals are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with the Braves. These three trends make for a 22-3 (88%) system backing Washington. Bet the Nationals Friday.

20* Astros/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +143

The Houston Astros have lost the first two games of this series to the San Diego Padres. Motivated to avoid the sweep, I'll back the Astros at a great price tonight.

Lucas Harrell has been dominant of late, going 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 19 innings over his last three starts. That includes a complete game shutout victory over these same Padres on 6/27 as the Astros won 1-0.

At 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 19 starts this season, Edinson Volquez is clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. In his last two starts against Houston, Volquez has allowed 7 earned runs and 18 base runners over 9 innings.

The Astros are 46-25 after a game where they committed 3 or more errors since 1997. The Padres are 2-10 in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. San Diego is 5-17 in home games after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Astros Thursday.

20* AL Wednesday Mound Mismatch on Tampa Bay Rays +100

The Tampa Bay Rays should not be an underdog at home to the Cleveland Indians tonight considering the massive edge they have on the mound in this one. Jeremy Hellickson is clearly a better starter than Cleveland's Justin Masterson, and the numbers prove it.

Hellickson is 3-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 16 starts this season, including 3-5 with a 3.12 ERA in 10 home starts. Masterson is 6-8 with a 4.14 ERA in 19 starts this year, including 3-4 with a 5.06 ERA in eight road outings.

Hellickson is 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in two career starts against Cleveland, allowing just two earned runs over 13 innings. Masterson is 1-6 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.858 WHIP in eight career starts against Tampa Bay, and his teams are 1-7 in those eight contests.

Cleveland is 1-10 in road games after 3 or more consecutive unders this season. The Indians are 2-8 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Cleveland is 10-23 in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Rays are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a home underdog. The Indians are 3-11 in the last 14 meetings in Tampa Bay, and 0-5 in Masterson's last 5 starts vs. Rays. Bet Tampa Bay Wednesday.

20* Rangers/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas -114

This is a great price to back the AL West-leading Texas Rangers (54-35) tonight. I know Roy Oswalt is off to a shaky start for Texas, but he allowed just one earned run over 5 2/3 innings of a 4-3 win over the Minnesota Twins last time out, and he appears to be back on track.

Oswalt will be up against an Oakland team that is scoring just 3.9 runs/game this season. The Rangers are scoring 5.1 runs/game this year, and they'll be licking their chops at an opportunity to face Bartolo Colon. The right-hander is 2-5 with a 4.47 ERA at home this season.

The Rangers are 45-16 in their last 61 during game 1 of a series. Texas is 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Texas is 47-22 in their last 69 vs. AL West foes. The Rangers are 17-7 in their last 24 meetings with Oakland. Bet Texas Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Marlins -115

The Miami Marlins (43-46) should be a much heavier favorite against the Chicago Cubs (36-52) tonight. I'll gladly side with them at this price against one of the worst teams in baseball Tuesday.

Anibal Sanchez has been pretty solid this season with a 4.12 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 17 starts. Travis Wood has also been good for the Cubs, but he's only had 10 starts and it's only a matter of time before his ERA (3.05) comes back to reality.

Sanchez has been at his best on the road this year, going 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in eight starts away from home. In his last start against the Cubs, Sanchez allowed just two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings to get the win in a 6-3 Marlins victory.

The Marlins are 9-0 in Sanchez's last 9 starts with 8 or more days of rest. Miami is 4-0 in Sanchez's last 4 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. Miami is 4-0 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 meetings with the Cubs. These five trends make for a perfect 26-0 system backing Miami. Roll with the Marlins Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +145

I was on the Diamondbacks +123 last night as they put an end to Cincinnati's six-game winning streak. I'll back Arizona tonight at an even better price this time around. The Reds are without Joey Votto for 3-4 weeks, and he's simply irreplaceable.

Trevor Bauer is one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He has opened 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three starts, which isn't great, but he'll have an edge considering the Reds have never seen him before. His nerves should certainly have calmed by now, and that was evident as he pitched six shutout innings to earn the win in a 7-1 victory over the L.A. Dodgers on July 8th in his last outing.

There's no question that Johnny Cueto is one of the best starters in baseball. But without Votto in the line-up, he's not going to get much run support in this one. Cueto is also just 3-5 with a 3.38 ERA in night games this season, and he's getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here.

The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Arizona is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Cincinnati. They realize they need to make a push right now if they are to catch the Giants and Dodgers in the NL West standings. Take the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +123

The Cincinnati Reds are coming off a 3-game sweep over the weekend against the St. Louis Cardinals. After sweeping their biggest rivals in all of baseball, the Reds are in for a huge letdown in Game 1 of this series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona comes in the more motivated team after getting swept by the Chicago Cubs over the weekend. Now they send one of the most underrated starters in the game to the mound. Wade Miley is 9-5 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.092 WHIP in 14 starts and three relief appearances in 2012.

Bronson Arroyo is 4-5 with a 3.73 ERA in 17 starts this season. He's winless at home, going 0-1 with a 3.71 ERA in seven starts. Arroyo sports a 4.07 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Diamondbacks as well.

The Diamondbacks are 14-6 in Miley's last 20 starts overall. The Reds are 3-7 in Arroyo's last 10 starts during game 1 of a series. Arizona is 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Diamondbacks Monday.

20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -122

The Philadelphia Phillies should be a much bigger favorite Sunday considering the massive edge they have on the mound. Cole Hamels and Drew Pomeranz aren't even in the same class, but this line would indicate that they are.

Hamels remains one of the best starters in baseball, going 10-4 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in 17 starts this season. Pomeranz is 1-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.359 WHIP in seven starts, and he has been simply lucky to have that low of an ERA with an inflated WHIP. Pomeranz was terrible last year, and his numbers will balloon as the season goes on.

The Phillies are 16-3 in Hamels' last 19 starts on the road with a money line of -100 to -150. Philly is 7-2 in Hamels' last nine road starts overall, including 6-1 in his last 7 starts as a road favorite. The Phillies are 55-23 in Hamels' last 78 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Rockies are 36-77 in their last 113 games as an underdog. Bet the Phillies Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Washington Nationals -136

The Washington Nationals should be favored more heavily Sunday considering the advantage they have on the rubber with Stephen Strasburg over Ricky Nolasco and the Miami Marlins.

Strasburg is 9-4 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 17 starts this season. He has a ridiculous 128 strikeouts in 99 innings, and he's 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in five career starts against Miami.

Nolasco sports a 4.35 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in 17 starts this season, and he's 3-4 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in nine home starts. He has posted a 3.92 ERA in 14 career starts against the Nationals, so Washington is certainly familiar with him.

Washington is a perfect 5-0 in its last 5 games following a loss. The Nationals are 10-1 in Strasburg's last 11 starts during game 3 of a series. Miami 1-10 is in home games after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. Take the Nationals Sunday.

15* Angels/Yankees AL Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -101

Any time you can get Los Angeles ace Jered Weaver at this price, you should almost always take advantage. That's especially the case Sunday as he's motivated to help the Angels avoid getting swept at the hands of the New York Yankees after dropping the first two games of this series.

Weaver is 10-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in 15 starts this season, and 3-0 with a 0.42 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in his last three starts. He has given up just one earned run over 21 2/3 innings while winning each of his last three outings.

Ivan Nova has been more lucky than good this season. The right-hander is 10-3 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.378 WHIP in 17 starts. Nova has been sub-par at home to say the least, going 3-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in seven starts at Yankee Stadium in 2012.

The Angels are 9-0 in Weaver's last 9 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 5-0 in Weaver's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Angels are 6-0 in Weaver's last 6 starts vs. American League East. Los Angeles is 4-0 in Weaver's last 4 road starts. The Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 Sunday games. These five trends make for a perfect 29-0 system backing Los Angeles. Roll with the Angels Sunday.

15* Rangers/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 6.5

Oddsmakers are giving both Yu Darvish and Felix Hernandez too much credit in this one. Both the Mariners and Rangers are capable of covering this small 6.5-run total on their own. I look for 7-plus combined runs to be scored early in this contest Saturday night.

Darvish has had a solid season to this point at 10-5 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in 16 starts, but he hasn't been able to figure out the Mariners. Darvish is 1-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 2.275 WHIP in two starts against Seattle this season, giving up nine earned runs and 22 base runners over 9 2/3 innings.

Hernandez is having another stellar year for the Mariners at 6-5 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.229 WHIP. But he'll be up against arguably the best line-up in baseball tonight and a team that is very familiar with him. Hernandez is 11-16 with a 3.92 ERA in 33 career starts against Texas.

The OVER is 5-1 in Hernandez's last 6 starts as an underdog. The OVER is 4-1 in Darvish's last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The OVER is 5-1 in Hernandez's last 6 home starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* National League DOG OF THE YEAR on Washington Nationals +100

The Washington Nationals represent my strongest underdog release on the National League for the entire 2012 season. They have a huge edge on the mound in this one with Gio Gonzalez over Mark Buehrle. And frankly, I believe Washington is the real deal, and its 50-34 record coming in is now fluke.

Gonzalez has certainly enjoyed his switch from the American League to the National League this season. The left-hander is 12-3 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.111 WHIP with 118 strikeouts in 101 2/3 innings. In his lone career start against the Marlins, Gonzalez pitched eight shutout innings while allowing only four base runners in a 1-0 victory.

Buehrle has been pretty good for the Marlins as well, going 8-8 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.126 WHIP in 17 starts this year, but he's no Gonzalez. Buehrle has posted a 6.23 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in two career starts against the Nationals as well.

Gonzalez is 10-1 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. The Nationals are 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 road starts. Washington is 7-0 in Gonzalez's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog. These four trends make for a 27-1 (96%) System backing Washington. Bet the Nationals Saturday.

15* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -120

The Chicago White Sox have a big edge on the mound in this one with Jake Peavy over Luke Hochevar. That edge should lead to a blowout victory Saturday for the south siders over the Kansas City Royals.

Jake Peavy has returned to Cy Young form this season as he's finally healthy. The right-hander is 7-5 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.992 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in eight road starts.

Hochever is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers considering he's having yet another down year. The right-hander is 6-8 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.388 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 1-4 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in seven home starts.

The White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series. Chicago is 14-3 in their last 17 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The White Sox are 8-1 in Peavy's last 9 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, including 5-0 in his 5 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Royals are 6-15 in Hochevar's last 21 starts as a home underdog. Roll with th White Sox Saturday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -125

I'll side with the Toronto Blue Jays Friday at a great price against the Cleveland Indians. I know Ricky Romero hasn't been as good as he was a year ago, but he's been very successful at home. Romero is 5-1 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.283 WHIP in eight home starts in 2012.

Justin Masterson is also having a down year for the Indians, going 5-8 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been at his worst on the road, going 2-4 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.512 WHIP in seven starts.

The Blue Jays are 7-0 in Romero's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Toronto is 7-0 in Romero's last 7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Indians are 1-7 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Cleveland is 1-6 in Masterson's last 7 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. These five trends make for a 34-3 (92%) system backing Toronto. Bet the Blue Jays Friday.

20* Yankees/Red Sox ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Boston -118

The Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated Sunday to earn a 2-2 series split with their biggest rivals tonight. They clearly hate the New York Yankees, and I like their chances of winning Sunday behind lefty Jon Lester at a great price.

Lester is 5-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.305 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in his last three. The left-hander's .675 lifetime winning percentage (81-39) ranks sixth among pitchers with a minimum of 100 decisions since 1900. Lester is 8-3 with a 4.15 ERA in 17 career starts against the Yankees.

The Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Boston is 26-12 in their last 38 Sunday games. The Red Sox are 56-19 in Lester's last 75 starts with 4 days of rest. Boston is 20-8 in Lester's last 28 Sunday starts. Bet the Red Sox Sunday.

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -1.5 (+115)

The Texas Rangers have lost five straight for the first time in over a year. The two-time defending AL champs will be highly motivated tonight to put an end to this skid, and I believe they do in blowout fashion. The Rangers haven't lost six in a row since April 15-21, 2010.

Derek Holland makes his return from the disabled list, so he'll be fresh and ready to go tonight. In his last two home starts against the Twins, Holland has going 2-0 with a 0.79 ERA while allowing one earned run over 11 1/3 innings. The Rangers won those two games 20-6 and 11-1.

Minnesota picked a tough spot to give Sam Deduno his first career starts. He'll be up against arguably the best line-up in baseball. Texas is hitting .286 and scoring 5.5 runs/game at home this season, while the Twins are hitting .234 and scoring 3.9 runs/game on the road.

Texas is 23-5 revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by 2.7 runs/game. The Rangers are 21-4 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning in this spot 6.2 to 3.6 on average. The Twins are 3-17 in road games when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons, losing 2.9 to 6.2 on average. Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Saturday.

25* NL West GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Dodgers -109

Rarely every will you get 2011 NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw at this kind of price. I'm going to take full advantage and back the Dodgers as my biggest release in the NL West division for the entire 2012 season Friday.

The Dodgers are playing much better of late, winning three straight and four of five. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have lost six straight and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight.

Kershaw is 6-4 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 17 starts this season. He'll be up against Josh Collmenter, who is 0-2 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in six starts and 16 relief appearances. Collmenter has been brutal as a start, going 0-2 with a 6.99 ERA and 1.377 WHIP in six outings, including 0-2 with a 7.86 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in four home starts.

Kershaw is 7-2 with a 1.92 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in 11 career starts against Arizona. He has won back-to-back starts against the Diamondbacks while allowing only five hits and zero runs over 12 innings. Collmenter is 1-2 with an 8.25 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in three career starts against Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are 37-16 in Kershaw's last 53 starts overall. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 in Collmenter's last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Los Angeles is 7-1 in Kershaw's last 8 starts vs. Diamondbacks. Bet the Dodgers Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night Line Mistake on Miami Marlins +134

The Miami Marlins have turned things around over the last week-plus. They have won six of eight overall with both losses coming by a single run. I'll gladly back the Marlins at a great price tonight in Game 1 of this series with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Ricky Nolasco has been a sneaky good road pitcher over the last couple years. He'll be up against Jake Westbrook, who has posted a 4.98 ERA and 1.511 WHIP in eight home starts this season for the Cardinals. Nolasco has been a bit unlucky on the road this year as he's 4-2 with a 1.237 WHIP, but his ERA is 4.95.

Nolasco has allowed just two earned runs over 13 2/3 innings in his last two starts against St. Louis. Nolasco is 23-14 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 1-8 in their last 9 Friday games. St. Louis is 1-5 in Westbrook's last 6 starts with 4 days of rest. Take the Marlins Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +135

After dropping three straight and five of six, the San Francisco Giants will be extremely motivated for a win tonight. The Pittsburgh Pirates are playing well, winners of eight of nine, but they clearly cannot keep up this pace, and the Giants will simply want Game 1 more tonight.

I like the value here with the Giants considering they actually have the edge on the mound. Barry Zito is 6-6 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.399 WHIP in 16 starts this season, while Erik Bedard is 4-9 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in 16 starts for the Pirates.

Zito sports a 3.25 ERA in six career starts against Pittsburgh. The Giants are 23-9 against the money line after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. San Francisco is 9-1 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Pirates are 0-4 in Bedard's last 4 starts. Roll with the Giants Friday.

20* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -120

After dropping the first two games of this series to the Washington Nationals, I have the San Francisco Giants bouncing back with a victory in Game 3. They'll do just that behind their best starter in Matt Cain tonight.

Cain is 9-3 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in eight road starts. Ross Detwiler of the Nationals is 3-3 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in 11 starts this year, and he's no match for Cain.

Cain is 5-4 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Nationals. Detwiler is 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.940 WHIP in his lone career starts against the Giants.

The Giants are 9-2 in Cain's last 11 starts overall. The Nationals are 1-6 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Giants are 6-2 in Cain's last 8 starts vs. Washington. Bet San Francisco Thursday.

25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-120)

After dropping the first two games of this series to the Minnesota Twins, the Detroit Tigers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight in Game 3. They'll get that win in blowout fashion behind 2011 AL Cy Young and 2011 AL MVP winner Justin Verlander.

Verlander is 8-5 with a 2.69 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 17 starts this season. He's 3-2 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.912 WHIP in seven home starts. Verlander is also 10-7 with a 3.52 ERA in 21 career starts against Minnesota.

Brian Duensing is 1-4 with a 4.10 ERA on the season for the Twins. The left-hander is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up 7 earned runs and 14 base runners over 7 innings in losses to the Reds and Royals recently. Duensing is also 2-3 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.689 WHIP in seven career starts against Detroit.

Verlander is 26-6 against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons, and the Tigers are outscoring opponents 5.4 to 3.0 in this spot. Verlander is 49-18 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997, and the Tigers are winning in this spot 5.6 to 3.5 on average. Bet Detroit on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -111

Once again, the Los Angeles Angels are not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers tonight. They should be a much bigger favorite in Game 2 of this series with the Cleveland Indians.

The Angels have won 27 of their last 37 games overall to make backers a ton of money. They are hot at the plate of late, scoring six or more runs in seven of their last 12 contests. The Indians have lost seven of 10 and are coming back down to reality after a fast start this year.

Dan Haren hasn't been at his best this season, but I have no doubt he's the better starter in this match-up with Cleveland's Zach McAllister. Haren brings in the third-lowest ERA among pitchers with at least five starts at Progressive Field. He's 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five career starts at Cleveland.

Haren already owns one victory in Cleveland (40-39) this year, allowing one run and striking out seven over eight innings of a 2-1 victory April 28. The right-hander has enjoyed success against numerous Cleveland hitters, including Asdrubal Cabrera (2 for 20), Michael Brantley (3 for 14), Shin-Soo Choo (2 for 11), Jack Hannahan (2 for 9) and Jason Kipnis (1 for 7).

The Angels are 14-3 in their last 17 games as a road favorite. Los Angeles is 4-0 in Haren's last 4 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Indians are 1-10 in their last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Bet the Angels Tuesday.

15* Yankees/Rays ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +121

Rarely will you ever get the New York Yankees as an underdog. I'll take full advantage Monday and back them as a road dog to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees have won seven of their last nine, and they're clearly one of the best teams in baseball.

Matt Moore remains overrated start after start. The young left-hander is 4-5 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.398 WHIP in 15 starts this season for the Rays. I know Freddy Garcia is off to a shaky start this season for the Yankees, but he's 9-2 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 16 career starts against Tampa. He gets on track tonight against a team he owns.

Garcia is a very profitable 38-29 (+15.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 since 1997. Tampa is 5-13 against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season. The Rays have lost six of their last seven games overall, scoring 4 runs or less in all seven. Roll with the Yankees Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -180

Rarely do I ever lay this much juice, but the Detroit Tigers are well worth it Monday. They should win this game in blowout fashion over the Minnesota Twins due to the huge edge they have on the mound tonight.

After winning two in a row, the Tigers are now just one game below .500 on the season. They certainly will be motivated to get to the break even point tonight, and they'll do so behind Doug Fister. The right-hander has posted a 3.91 ERA in nine starts this season, including a 1.72 ERA in three home outings.

Liam Hendriks is one of the worst starters in the big leagues. The right-hander is 0-5 with a 6.82 ERA and 1.660 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.846 WHIP in three home starts. Fister sports a 3.43 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in six career starts against Minnesota.

The Twins are 0-5 in Hendriks' last 5 starts. The Tigers are 8-1 in Fister's last 9 home starts. These two trends make for a 14-1 (93%) System favoring the Tigers just on starting pitching alone. Also, Detroit is 21-6 in their last 27 meetings with the Twins. Bet the Tigers Monday.

15* MLB Monday Mound Mismatch on Los Angeles Angels -131

The Los Angeles Angels are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the Cleveland Indians Monday. With ace Jered Weaver on the mound, the Angels will be going for their 27th win in 37 games, and I believe they get it with ease tonight.

The Angels have scored at least six runs in seven of their last 11 games overall. Weaver hasn't needed much run support this season, going 8-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in 13 starts, so this hot Los Angeles offense is only a bonus.

He'll be up against Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 7-6 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.540 WHIP in 15 starts this season. He's been a huge disappointment for the Indians to say the least. He stands little chance against Weaver, who is 4-0 with a 1.75 ERA in seven career starts at Cleveland. He has posted a miniscule 0.31 ERA in his last four starts at Progressive Field.

The Angels are 15-3 in their last 18 road games. Los Angeles is 9-0 in Weaver's last 9 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Angels are 47-17 in Weavers last 64 starts as a favorite. The Indians are 1-7 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Angels Monday.

20* Mets/Dodgers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -144

The Los Angeles Dodgers get the nod tonight with 2011 NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw on the mound. He'll shut down the New York Mets, while the Dodgers get their bats going against Dillon Gee in this one.

The Dodgers have lost seven in a row, so they'll obviously be motivated to put an end to that streak tonight. Kershaw is just the guy to put an end to it as he's 5-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in 16 starts this year.

Gee is 5-6 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 15 starts this season, and he's clearly not in the same class as Kershaw. The Los Angeles left-hander has never lost to the Mets, going 4-0 (5-0 on the money line) with a 1.39 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in five career starts against New York. Bet the Dodgers Sunday.

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -141

The Boston Red Sox get the nod Saturday as a road favorite over the lowly Seattle Mariners. I'll side with Boston in this one behind ace Josh Beckett as he owns Erasmo Ramirez of the Mariners.

The Red Sox are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, winners of 12 of their last 16 overall. Beckett has posted a 4.14 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 12 starts this season, and his first start back from the DL should be a good one.

Beckett owns the Mariners, going 7-2 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 10 career starts against Seattle. Ramirez is 0-1 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in three starts and seven relief appearances in 2012.

The Mariners are 3-16 against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. Boston is 6-0 in Beckett's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. The Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 games as a favorite. Seattle is 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Bet the Red Sox Saturday.

25* AL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Angels -111

Once again, oddsmakers are giving us a great price on the Los Angeles Angels tonight. The surging Angels look to move a season-best 11 games over .500 Friday. Los Angeles has won 25 of its last 33 games overall, including 14 of 15 on the road while outscoring opponents 90-44 in the process.

Ervin Santana's numbers won't wow you (4-8, 4.92 ERA, 1.268 WHIP), but he's finally starting to look like that dominant pitcher he was a year ago. Santana has given up just two earned runs and six base runners while striking out 15 over 17 innings in his last two starts. That's good for a 1.06 ERA and a miniscule 0.353 WHIP.

Carlos Villanueva is no more than a fill-in starter for the Toronto Blue Jays. He'll be making his first start of the season tonight, and he'll likely be done for by the end of the 5th inning. He's not conditioned to go deep into games, and the Angels are red hot at the plate, so they'll make sure he doesn't last long. That means Toronto's sub-par bullpen will be in line for more innings than usual.

Santana is 5-2 with a 2.55 ERA in his last eight starts against Toronto, not once allowing more than three earned runs while pitching at least six innings in each start. He has three complete games against the Blue Jays over this span.

The Angels are 14-1 in their last 15 road games, and 7-0 in their last 7 games with a total set of 9.0-10.5. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in Villanueva's last 5 starts as an underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. These four trends make for a 31-1 (97%) System backing Los Angeles. Bet the Angels Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Brainer on Los Angeles Angels -115

The Los Angeles Angeles have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last month-plus. I've been riding them with quite a bit of success, and they are showing great value once again tonight as a small road favorite in Game 1 of this series with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Coming off their highest-scoring game of the season, the surging Angels look to move a season-best 10 games over .500 Thursday. Los Angeles has won 24 of its last 32 games overall, including 13 of 14 on the road while outscoring opponents 81-37 in the process.

Los Angeles starter Dan Haren has been at his best on the road this season, going 3-2 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.274 WHIP in six starts away from home in 2012. Haren was 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA in two starts at Rogers Centre after last season's All-Star break.

Brett Cecil has pitched well in two starts this season since coming off the disabled list, but both starts came against the NL East's worst two teams in Miami and Philadelphia. He'll have a much more difficult challenge tonight against these red-hot Angels. Cecil hasn't looked nearly as comfortable against Los Angeles, going 0-2 with an 8.71 ERA in his last four games in the series.

The Angels are 13-1 in their last 14 road games, 6-0 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, and 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in Cecil's last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. These four trends make for a 29-1 (97%) system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Angels Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -119

The Los Angeles Angels are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the Baltimore Orioles tonight. Rarely ever will you get Los Angeles ace Jered Weaver at this kind of price, and I'll gladly take full advantage tonight.

Los Angeles (41-33) has won 23 of its last 31 to help shake off an early season slump after beating Baltimore 7-3 on Tuesday. The Angels, who won two of three versus the Orioles from April 20-22 and seek a sweep of this two-game series, have outscored opponents 68-36 while winning 12 of 13 on the road.

Weaver is 7-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.907 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.786 WHIP in his last three. Jason Hammel has been solid for Baltimore this season, but he's certainly no Weaver.

The Angels are 12-1 in their last 13 road games. Los Angeles is 46-17 in Weaver's last 63 starts as a favorite. The Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog. Bet the Angels Wednesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -132

The Washington Nationals have a big edge on the mound tonight with Gio Gonzalez over Christian Friedrich. Off back-to-back losses, the Nationals are certainly motivated for a victory Tuesday, and I believe they get one behind their impressive left-hander.

Gonzalez is 9-3 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 14 starts this season. He has certainly loved his switch to the National League after pitching well in Oakland previously.

Friedrich is 4-4 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.588 WHIP in nine starts this season. Colorado's left-hander has been atrocious at home, going 1-2 with a 12.60 ERA and 2.533 WHIP in three starts at Coors Field.

The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Washington is 5-0 in Gonzalez's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win and 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. These five trends make for a perfect 21-0 system backing Washington. Bet the Nationals Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Rays +110

The Tampa Bay Rays should not be an underdog to the lowly Kansas City Royals tonight. A big reason for this value is Tampa starter Chris Archer, who many bettors are unfamiliar with. This guy is the real deal and has a bright future in the big leagues.

Archer had 90 strikeouts over 76 2/3 innings in the minors this year before getting called up by the Rays this month. He was solid in his first start at Washington, allowing just one earned run and four base runners over 6 innings while striking out seven batters.

Bruce Chen is getting too much love from oddsmakers tonight. Chen is 6-6 with a 4.81 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 7.29 ERA over his last three.

The Royals are 2-8 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Rays are 61-30 in their last 91 vs. a team with a losing record. The Royals are 0-4 in Chen's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 35-16 in their last 51 meetings with Kansas City. Roll with the Rays Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Night Mound Mismatch on Los Angeles Angels -133

The Los Angeles Angels should be a bigger favorite tonight over the Baltimore Orioles with the edge they have on the mound. The Angels (40-33) have batted .280 and scored 147 runs during a 22-8 surge, putting behind them a rough first 43 games in which they hit .249 and scored 154 runs.

C.J. Wilson is 8-4 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 5-2 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in nine road outings. Wilson has gone 4-0 with a 1.31 ERA over his last six outings as well. He pitched 8 2/3 scoreless innings of a 2-0 victory in his last start against Baltimore.

Brian Matusz simply hasn't panned out as the prospect the Orioles thought he'd be. The left-hander is 5-8 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.612 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 0-3 with an 8.02 ERA and 2.431 WHIP in his last three. Matusz is 1-3 with a 6.10 ERA and 2.032 WHIP in four career starts against the Angels.

Los Angeles has been doing most of its damage away from home, going 11-1 in its last 12 road games. The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Los Angeles is 6-0 in Wilson's last 6 starts overall, and 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. The Orioles are 0-5 in Matusz's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. These five trends make for a 31-1 (97%) system backing Los Angeles. Take the Angels Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Night Mound Mismatch on Chicago White Sox -108

The Chicago White Sox have a huge edge on the mound tonight with Jake Peavy over Francisco Liriano. The White Sox also get a boost to their line-up as Kevin Youkilis is expected to make his Chicago debut tonight at Target Field.

After placing Brent Morel on the disabled list with back issues in May, the White Sox signed free agent Orlando Hudson and shifted him from second to third. Neither has provided much. Hudson is hitting .170 with four errors and 11 driven in over 28 games while Morel was batting .177 with five RBIs. The White Sox's overall numbers at third - a .168 average, one homer and 18 RBIs - are all the worst in the majors.

Peavy is 6-3 with a 2.74 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in 14 starts this season, 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in six road starts, and 0-2 despite a 1.64 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three outings. Liriano is 1-7 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in 11 starts and five relief appearances this season. Peavy is 2-2 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in six career starts against Minnesota, while Liriano is 4-3 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in nine career starts against Chicago.

The White Sox are 5-0 in Peavy's last 5 starts as a road favorite. Chicago is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League Central opponents. The Twins are 35-72 in their last 107 games as an underdog, including 14-37 in their last 51 games as a home underdog. Minnesota is 5-23 in their last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The White Sox are 10-3 in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1 in their last 7 meetings in Minnesota. Take the White Sox Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -141

The Texas Rangers have been red hot of late, and I'll side with them to take Game 1 of this series against the Detroit Tigers tonight. The Rangers have won 11 of 13, and they lead the majors with 386 runs scored.

Rick Porcello's worst career regular-season ERA against an AL opponent is the work of the high-scoring Rangers. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 12.27 ERA in three outings against Texas (45-28), including his shortest effort over his last three seasons April 21. Porcello (4-5, 4.95 ERA) was tagged for nine runs over one-plus inning in a 10-4 defeat in the opener of a doubleheader.

Porcello is 0-3 with a 12.08 ERA in three starts against the AL West this year. Opponents are hitting .319 overall against him - the worst mark in baseball among starters that have gone at least 70 innings.

Texas rookie Justin Grimm (1-0, 4.50) gets the ball again after yielding three runs over six innings June 16 in his major league debut, an 8-3 victory over Houston. Grimm is a diamond in the rough, going 15-6 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 38 starts in the minors over the last two years. He is 8-3 with a 1.87 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 13 minor league starts in 2012.

Detroit scored a combined 5 runs while losing two out of three to the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend. The Tigers are 5-14 against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season. Detroit is 0-5 in Porcello's last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Rangers are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Texas is 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Bet the Ranges Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Blue Jays +140

The Toronto Blue Jays have quietly put together a solid season thus far at 37-35. Winners of six of their last nine, the Blue Jays are showing great value tonight as a big underdog to the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of this series Monday.

Toronto starter Henderson Alvarez is better than he gets credit for from oddsmakers, especially on the road. Alvarez is 2-1 with a 3.63 ERA in six road starts in 2012. Felix Doubront has struggled at home for Boston. The left-hander is 3-2 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in seven starts at Fenway Park this season.

Alvarez has posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in three career starts against Boston, allowing just 5 earned runs over 18 1/3 innings. Boston is 1-9 against the money line in home games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. Roll with the Blue Jays Monday.

20* Yankees/Mets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on New York Mets +112

The New York Mets are showing great value as a home underdog to the New York Yankees Sunday. R.A. Dickey has been the best pitcher in baseball up to this point, yet he still doesn't get the respect he deserves from oddsmakers.

Dickey is 11-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in 14 starts this season. The knuckleballer is 6-0 with a 1.20 ERA and 0.783 WHIP in seven home starts. He has not permitted an earned run in 42 2-3 innings, the second-longest such streak in club history behind Dwight Gooden's 49-inning run in 1985.

Dickey is 7-0 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 3 seasons. His teams are winning 4.7 to 1.6 on average in this spot. Bet the Mets Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -138

The San Francisco Giants are 39-32 on the season. Madison Bumgarner is 8-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 14 starts this year. The left-hander has been absolutely dominant of late, going 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Giants have a huge edge on the mound behind Bumgarner. Oakland's Tyson Ross is 2-6 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in 10 starts this season.

The A's are 5-20 against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 21-6 in Bumgarner's last 27 starts as a favorite. The A's are 0-6 in Ross' last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Giants Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +150

The Chicago Cubs should not be this big of an underdog against the Arizona Diamondbacks, let alone an underdog at all. This team has reason to be confident after taking two out of three from the Chicago White Sox last series, and I believe they take Game 1 over Arizona tonight.

Jeff Samardzija has pitched pretty well for the Cubs this season, sporting a 4.04 ERA with 78 strikeouts in 78 innings. Joe Saunders has been good on the road for the Diamondbacks, but atrocious at home. Saunders is 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.573 WHIP in seven home starts in 2012.

Saunders has never beaten Chicago, going 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA and 2.191 WHIP in two career starts against the Cubs. He has allowed 10 runs (7 earned) and 19 base runners over 8 2/3 innings in those two starts.

Arizona is 1-9 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season. The Diamondbacks are losing 3.4 to 6.2 on average in this spot. Roll with the Cubs Friday.

15* Yankees/Mets Subway Series No-Brainer on New York Mets +130

The New York Mets have made backers a lot of money this season with their 38-32 start. They are going to be very hungry for a victory tonight after getting swept at Yankee Stadium in three games from June 8-10. I believe they get their revenge with a Game 1 victory at home this time around.

The Mets have won three straight coming in due to dominant pitching. Jon Niese gets the ball looking to improve on his already impressive season thus far. The left-hander is 4-3 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.261 WHIP in 13 starts, including 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in his last three.

Niese faced the Yankees on June 10th, not allowing a single earned runs in 7 innings of work. Andy Pettite gave up 2 earned runs over 6 innings in that same game, but the Yankees came back to win 5-4. I expect Niese, who has a 2.08 ERA in his career against the Yankees, to pitch well again and get the win this time around.

The Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. American League East. New York is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. These three trends make for a perfect 17-0 system backing the home team. Take the Mets Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -110

The Detroit Tigers are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates Friday. I believe they have the edge on the mound and at the plate, thus I'll side with them in Game 1 of this series Friday.

The Tigers are highly-motivated to get back to .500 on the season with a victory tonight. They have an excellent chance to do so behind Doug Fister, who has posted a 2.68 ERA and 1.215 WHIP through seven starts this season.

A.J. Burnett has been on a great run of late for Pittsburgh, but his ERA (3.52) and WHIP (1.275) are each higher than Fister's. Burnett has not fared well against Detroit, posting a 5.47 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Tigers. Doug Fister has never faced Pittsburgh, so the Tigers will have an edge in familiarity with the opposing starter.

Pittsburgh is 8-23 against the money line after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Detroit is 7-2 in Fister's last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 68-26 in their last 94 interleague games as a favorite. Bet Detroit Friday.

15* Thunder/Heat ABC No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City +3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder won't pack it in and let Miami just run away with the championship tonight. I fully expect the Thunder to fight until the end knowing that if they can just get Game 5, this is a whole new series with two games remaining in Oklahoma City.

While this is a 3-1 series, it has been much closer than that. The Thunder have lost each of the last three games by 6 points or less. "We're going to keep fighting," Kevin Durant said. "Frustrating to lose like that. It was just frustrating. But we're going to keep fighting, man. That's how we've been since I got here. We're going to keep fighting and just take it a possession and a game at a time."

The Thunder are 60-31 ATS in their last 91 games following a S.U. loss. Oklahoma City is 40-23 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are 73-45 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Oklahoma City in Game 5 Thursday.

20* MLB Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Dodgers -150

After losing the first two games of this series to Oakland, I'm backing the Los Angeles Dodgers to salvage Game 3 this afternoon. It's really a no-brainer considering ace and 2011 NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw gets the ball, and he's not about to let his team get swept.

Kershaw has picked up right where he left off last season, going 5-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 14 starts this year. He'll be opposed by Travis Blackley, who is 1-2 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in four starts this season, including 1-1 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in two home outings.

Oakland is 0-11 against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games this season. The A's are losing in this spot 1.5 to 5.3 on average. The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. Los Angeles is 7-0 in Kershaw's last 7 road starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The A's are 0-6 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. Oakland is 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter. These five trends make for a perfect 32-0 system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Dodgers Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -121

I believe the Detroit Tigers are showing solid value tonight as just a small home favorite over the St. Louis Cardinals. After a slow start through the first two months, the Tigers have really kicked it in gear of late, finally starting to live up to their massive potential.

Detroit has won seven of their last nine, including three straight victories. Rick Porcello hasn't been spectacular this season by any means, but I believe he's the better starter in this one. Detroit is very familiar with Jake Westbrook, which gives these potent Tigers hitters a big edge at the plate.

Westbrook is 6- with a 5.89 ERA and 1.564 WHIP in 20 career starts against Detroit, while Porcello is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in one career start against St. Louis. Westbrook is 1-4 with a 7.05 ERA over his last seven starts, allowing 29 earned runs in 37 innings.

The Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Detroit is 43-13 in their last 56 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Tigers are 13-3 in Porcello's last 16 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Tigers are 9-1 in regular-season home meetings with the Cardinals since 2006. Bet Detroit Wednesday.

15* Rangers/Padres Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5 (+111)

The Texas Rangers and San Diego Padres should easily combine to score 8 or more runs in this one. This is a match-up between two struggling starters, and both line-ups will be licking their chops at an opportunity to face both Scott Feldman and Edinson Volquez.

Feldman has simply been atrocious this season. The right-hander is 0-6 with a 7.14 ERA and 1.621 WHIP in seven starts, 0-3 with an 11.92 ERA and 1.853 WHIP in three road starts, and 0-3 with a 10.50 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three outings. Two of those have come against offensively-challenged Oakland and San Francisco.

Volquez is a former Ranger whom Texas is very familiar with. The right-hander is 3-6 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in his last three outings. Both teams shouldn't have a problem scoring 4-plus runs in this one.

Feldman is 10-1 to the OVER after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. San Diego is 13-3 to the OVER after scoring 1 run or less this season. The OVER is 7-3-1 in Feldman's last 11 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The OVER is 4-0 in Feldman's last 4 starts as a favorite. Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder represent my strongest side release for the 2012 NBA Finals in Game 4 tonight. This is basically a must-win game for them, and I'm expecting their best effort of the series tonight as they steal one at Miami.

The Thunder have been one of the most resilient teams in the NBA over the last few years. They dug themselves some early holes in each of the last two games, but fought back to have a chance late only to fall a little short. I look for OKC to dominate from start to finish in this one.

The Thunder are 18-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. OKC is 60-30 ATS in its last 90 games following a S.U. loss, and 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss. The Thunder are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Miami. Bet Oklahoma City in Game 4 Tuesday.

15* Interleague Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -149

I expect Justin Verlander to take this match-up with Lance Lynn personal tonight. Lynn became the league's first 10-game winner right alongside R.A. Dickey. Verlander was last season's AL Cy Young and AL MVP winner, and he's not about to let Lynn upstage him tonight in his home park.

Verlander has picked up right where he left off last year, going 6-4 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.974 WHIP in 14 starts. He has been virtually untouchable in six home outings, posting a 1.77 ERA and 0.854 WHIP while allowing just nine earned runs and 26 hits over 45 2/3 innings.

The Tigers have won all 11 regular-season home games that Verlander has pitched versus the NL and he's gone 10-0 with a 1.73 ERA in those 11 starts. I'll take this 100% never-lost system straight to the bank tonight. Roll with the Tigers Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels -102

The Los Angeles Angels have been a money-making machine for me over the last month. I'm going to continue to ride this team tonight as they stay red hot while taking down one of the game's best starters.

San Francisco sends Matt Cain to the mound tonight. Cain is coming off a perfect game in a 10-0 win over the Houston Astros, which was only the 22nd perfect game in MLB history. Pitchers who are coming off such a historical performance tend to have a letdown and struggle their next time out.

Of the 17 pitchers to throw a perfect game since the White Sox's Charlie Robertson in 1922, only five won their next start. The last nine - including Phil Humber, who retired all 27 hitters on April 21 - are a combined 3-4 with a 5.56 ERA following their history-making performance.

The Angels have won 18 of their last 24 games overall dating back to May 22nd. They send the underrated Jerome Williams to the mound to face his former team. Williams is 6-4 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in six home starts.

Los Angeles is 9-0 against the money line after a game with a combined score of 4 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog. Los Angeles is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Angels are 8-1 in Williams' last 9 home starts. These three trends make for a 27-1 (96%) system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Angels Monday.

15* Thunder/Heat ABC Game 3 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +4.5

After falling short of a comeback in Game 2, I'm siding with the Oklahoma City Thunder to bounce back with a victory in Game 3. This has been one of the most resilient teams in the league as they almost always respond well following a defeat.

With two days in between games to prepare, I certainly think it benefits the Thunder more. I believe their coach makes the better adjustments and will come up with the right game plan for tonight. Plus, Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on 2 days rest.

The Thunder are 60-29-1 ATS in their last 90 games following a S.U. loss. Oklahoma City is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. The Thunder are 29-15 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Oklahoma City in Game 3 Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Angels -125

The Los Angeles Angels have been a money-making machine over the last month as they've started to live up to their massive potential after a slow start to the season. The Angels have won 17 of their last 23 games overall dating back to May 22nd.

I believe Los Angeles has the edge on the mound in this one and should be a bigger favorite because of it. Garrett Richards is making his case to earn a spot in the rotation for good, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in two starts and one relief appearance. Ian Kennedy has struggled this year, going 5-6 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in 13 starts for Arizona.

The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in Kennedy's last 5 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Angels are 44-19 in their last 63 interleague games. Los Angeles is 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings with Arizona. Bet the Angels Sunday.

20* Interleague Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels -132

The Los Angeles Angels should roll tonight over the Arizona Diamondbacks in interleague action. Los Angeles has won 16 of it last 22 and will be out to avenge yesterday's 5-0 loss. The Angels have only lost back-to-back games once since May 22nd.

This play falls into a system that is 46-23 (66.7%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (LA ANGELS) - after a game where they had 4 or less hits, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts.

The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in Saunders' last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss. The Angels are 43-19 in their last 62 interleague games. Bet the Angels Saturday.

25* Interleague Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-135)

The Texas Rangers will roll over the Houston Astros in Game 1 of this interleague series Friday. I'll back them on the Run Line to win this one by two runs or more.

The Rangers have a huge edge on the mound in this one. Yu Darvish is 7-4 with a 3.72 ERA in 12 starts this season, including 5-0 with a 3.37 ERA in five home starts.

Jordan Lyles is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in six starts this season for Houston. Lyles has never beaten Texas, going 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.833 WHIP in three career starts against the Rangers.

Houston is 14-38 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons, losing in this spot 3.8 to 6.0 on average. The Astros are 0-11 in Lyles' last 11 road starts. The Rangers are 5-0 in Darvish's last 5 starts as a home favorite. Texas is 40-13 in their last 53 games following a loss. Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Friday.

15* Heat/Thunder ABC Game 2 No-Brainer on OVER 196

Oddsmakers have once again set the bar too low in Game 2 between the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder. These are the two most athletic teams in the league, and until the books set the total above 200 there's likely going to be a lot of value with the OVER.

Oklahoma City has scored 102 or more points in six straight games, and 98 or more in nine straight. The OVER is 8-2 in Thunder's last 10 playoff games. OKC had 24 fast break points in Game 1 and I look for them to continue to push the tempo tonight as this game is played at their pace.

After scoring 94 points in Game 1, the Heat are certain to make some adjustments. They only had 4 fast break points, and there's no question Miami is going to look to get out and run more in Game 2. They looked lost at times in the half court offensively, so their only option is to look to get out in transition more. The OVER is 9-2 in Miami's last 11 playoff games.

The OVER is 43-15-1 in Thunder last 59 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 11-2 in Thunder last 13 games as a favorite. The OVER is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 games following a ATS win. The OVER is 7-1 in Heat last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. The OVER is 14-6 in Heat last 20 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Take the OVER in Game 2 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -116

The Milwaukee Brewers have lost two heartbreakers to open this series with the Kansas City Royals, dropping the first two by exactly one run each. I'm backing the Brewers to salvage this series and win Game 3 due to the huge edge they have on the mound tonight.

Shaun Marcum has pitched very well this season, going 5-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 12 starts. He has been at his best on the road, going 2-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in six outings. Marcum is 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.118 WHIP over his last three starts as well.

Luke Hochevar is one of the worst starters in the league and it's amazing that he continues to keep his spot in this KC rotation over the last few years. Hochevar is 3-7 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in 12 starts this season. He's winless at home, going 0-4 with a 10.23 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in five starts at Kauffman Stadium.

Marcum is 3-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in five career starts against Kansas City. The Royals are 0-9 vs. a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Marcum is 14-1 against the money line in road games after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing since 1997. Roll with the Brewers Thursday.

20* MLB Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-119)

The Detroit Tigers should roll over the Chicago Cubs this afternoon with ace Justin Verlander on the mound. Chicago sends one of their worst starters to the bump in Tyler Wood, giving the Tigers a huge edge in the pitching department today.

Verlander is 5-4 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.004 WHIP with 95 strikeouts in 93 2/3 innings spanning 13 starts this season. Wood is 0-2 with a 4.71 ERA in five starts for Chicago, including 0-0 with a 7.36 ERA in two home starts inside hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.

Verlander is 18-2 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons, and the Tigers are winning 4.7 to 2.6 on average in this spot. The Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite of -201 or greater. Detroit is 10-1 in Verlander's last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Cubs are 4-18 in their last 22 games following a loss. Bet Detroit on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Interleague Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -136

The Los Angeles Angels were my lone loss last night en route to a 3-1 Tuesday after blowing a 2-1 lead in the 8th inning. I'm coming back to them again tonight to bounce back from that loss, and to take this series from their crosstown rival Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Angels have won 15 of their last 20 games overall as they're clearly playing their best baseball of the season over the past month. They have only lost back-to-back games once during this span, so this has been a very resilient bunch.

C.J. Wilson has been the best starter for the Angels all season. The left-hander is 7-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 13 starts, 5-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in eight road starts, and 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.900 WHIP over his last three starts. He has allowed just two earned runs in 20 innings in his last three outings.

Wilson is 18-4 (+12.2 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 10-1 in their last 11 road games. The Angels are 4-0 in Wilson's last 4 road starts. The Angels are 40-15 in their last 55 vs. National League West. The Dodgers are 14-46 in their last 60 interleague games as an underdog. The Dodgers are 8-25 in their last 33 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Angels Wednesday.

15* Interleague Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +102

The Boston Red Sox are showing great value Wednesday as a road underdog to the Miami Marlins. Both teams have been struggling of late, but I'm siding with the better starter in this one in Felix Doubront over Ricky Nolasco.

Rarely will you get the Red Sox as an underdog, and they should not be a dog with Doubront on the hill tonight. The left-hander has been at his best away from Fenway Park, going 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA in six road starts this season.

Nolasco has struggled all year, especially at home. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in six home starts in 2012. That has been a trend throughout his career as he's been a much better road starter than when pitching at home.

The Red Sox are 68-24 in their last 92 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. Boston is 5-1 in Doubront's last 6 road starts. The Marlins are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. American League East. Miami is 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Marlins are 4-9 in Nolasco's last 13 starts as a home favorite. Roll with the Red Sox Wednesday.

15* Yankees/Braves ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on New York +101

The New York Yankees will be going for a sweep of the Atlanta Braves tonight, and I believe they pull it off. The Yankees should not be an underdog with how well they are playing right now, and I'll take full advantage in this one.

New York has won 15 of its last 19 games overall to move into first place in the AL East. They have won five straight coming in, outscoring the opposition 27-11 in the process. Atlanta has dropped three straight, getting outscored 8-21 along the way.

The biggest reason for this selection is the starting pitcher match-up. Hiroki Kuroda has been dominant of late, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.682 WHIP while allowing just two earned runs and 15 base runners over 22 innings. The right-hander has posted a 2.10 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in five career starts against Atlanta.

Tim Hudson is far past his prime, and that has shown at home and of late. Hudson has posted a 5.92 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in four home starts this season. He's 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA in his last three starts as well. Now he must face one of the most potent line-ups in baseball in the Yankees.

The Yankees are 39-16 in their last 55 interleague games. New York is 26-8 in their last 34 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The Braves have not been resilient in this spot, going 0-6 in their last 6 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Atlanta is 2-9 in their last 11 games following a loss as well. The Braves are 5-16 in Hudson's last 21 interleague starts. Take the Yankees Wednesday.

15* Angels/Dodgers Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels -110

I have been riding the Los Angeles Angels with quite a bit of success over the last few weeks. I'll stick with them tonight as I expect them to continue playing their best baseball of the season. I believe they have the edge on the mound with Jerome Williams over Aaron Harang.

The Angels have won 15 of their last 19 games overall to get to 33-29 on the season and back within striking distance of the Texas Rangers in the AL West. They have won four straight, scoring a combined 31 runs in the process.

Jerome Williams has been a very effective starter this year, going 6-3 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.261 WHIP in 10 starts for the Angels. While Aaron Harang (5-3, 3.95 ERA, 1.359 WHIP) has pitched fairly well for the Dodgers, this guy is far past his prime and will be facing one of the toughest line-ups he's faced all season.

The Angels are 10-3 in their last 13 meetings with the Dodgers, including 7-1 in their last 8 road meetings. The Angels are a perfect 10-0 in their last 10 road games and 8-0 in their last 8 games as a road favorite. The Dodgers are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. These last three trends make for a 23-0 system backing the road team tonight. Roll with the Angels Tuesday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Thunder OVER 195.5

I believe oddsmakers have set the mark far too low for Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder. I look for both teams to come in very amped up and to play at a frantic pace in Game 1 because of it.

After playing a half-court team like Boston with little athleticism, the Heat aren't going to be ready for the fast-breaking style of the Thunder in this one. Look for Oklahoma City to run at every opportunity to take full advantage. The Heat will be forced to play at OKC's pace as they have to speed up their tempo as well.

The Thunder have scored 102 or more points in five straight games, and 98 or more in eight straight. They are averaging a whopping 107.4 points/game over their last five contests. Miami has averaged 99.5 points/game in winning its last two over Boston.

The OVER is 8-2 in Miami's last 10 games overall, while the OVER is 7-2 in Oklahoma City's last 9 games. The OVER is 10-2 in Thunder last 12 games as a favorite. The OVER is 42-15-1 in Thunder last 58 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Oklahoma City. Bet the OVER in Game 1 Tuesday.

15* Interleague Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland A's +108

The Oakland A's should not be an underdog to the Colorado Rockies tonight considering the huge edge they have on the mound in this one. I'll side with Bartolo Colon and the A's over Jeremy Guthrie and the Rockies in Game 1 of this series Tuesday night.

Colon has been at his best on the road, going 4-2 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in eight starts away from home. He pitched eight shutout innings in his last start against the Texas Rangers, who feature one of the most potent line-ups in baseball.

Guthrie has been one of the worst starters in the league in 2012. The washed-up right-hander is 3-4 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.726 WHIP in nine starts this season. He's 1-2 with an 8.87 ERA and 1.843 WHIP in four starts inside hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Colorado is 1-10 after allowing 8 runs or more this season. Oakland is 10-3 after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. Colon is 17-4 in road games in an interleague game since 1997. Colon is 13-1 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Take the A's Tuesday.

15* Interleague Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Phillies/Twins OVER 9

Oddsmakers have set the bar too low in this Game 1 between the Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins. These aren't two teams known as offensive juggernauts, but they have been hitting the ball well lately, and both line-ups will be licking their chops at the opportunity to face tonight's opposing starters.

Philadelphia has been surprisingly solid offensively away from home. The Phillies are putting up 4.9 runs/game on the road this season. Minnesota has been hot of late, scoring a combined 21 runs (7.0/game) in taking two of three from the Chicago Cubs over the weekend.

Nick Blackburn has been one of the worst starters in the league this season for Minnesota. He's 2-4 with a 7.75 ERA and 1.722 WHIP in eight starts this year. Kyle Kendrick has not fared well for Philly, either. The right-hander is 2-5 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.461 WHIP in eight starts and five relief appearances.

The OVER is 20-6 in Phillies last 26 road games. The OVER is 19-3 in Kendrick's last 22 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Minnesota is 17-6 to the OVER in all interleague games over the last 2 seasons.

The OVER is 6-0 in Phillies last 6 interleague road games, 7-0-1 in Phillies last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, and 5-0 in Phillies last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Twins last 7 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter and 6-0 in Twins last 6 interleague home games. These five trends make for a 30-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Angels/Dodgers Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels +106

I have been riding the Los Angeles Angels with quite a bit of success over the last few weeks. The Angels are playing their best baseball of the season right now, winners of 14 of their last 18 games overall to get to 32-29 on the season. They have won three straight while scoring a combined 28 runs in the process.

Garrett Richards gets the ball for the Angels looking to continue his stellar start to 2012. He has posted a 1.13 ERA and 0.750 WHIP while allowing just one earned run and six base runners over 8 innings, striking out 8.

Chris Capuano has posted solid numbers this year for the Dodgers, but he's come back down to reality of late. The left-hander has allowed eight earned runs, four home runs and 16 base runners over 10 1/3 innings in his last two outings.

The Angels are 9-0 in their last 9 road games. The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter. These three trends make for a perfect 17-0 system backing the Angels. Plus, the Angels are 9-3 in their last 12 meetings, including 6-1 in their last 7 road meetings with the Dodgers. Roll with the Angels Monday.

20* Tigers/Reds ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Detroit +122

I'm siding with the Detroit Tigers tonight behind underrated rookie starter Drew Smyly. Detroit has lost three straight series, so after splitting the first two games of this one with Cincinnati, the Tigers are certainly motivated for a series victory with a win in Game 3 Sunday.

Smyly has been solid all year, going 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in 11 starts, including 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in six road starts. Cincinnati starter Homer Bailey is 4-4 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.355 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in five home outings.

The Tigers are 48-21 in their last 69 Sunday games. Detroit is 15-6 in their last 21 vs. National League Central opponents. The Reds are 2-7 in their last 9 vs. American League Central foes. Cincinnati is 1-4 in Bailey's last 5 interleague starts. Bet the Tigers Sunday.

15* Interleague Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels +104

The Los Angeles Angels get the nod Sunday as an underdog to the Colorado Rockies. Los Angeles is playing their best baseball of the season right now, winners of 13 of their last 17. They have taken the first two games of this series while scoring a combined 18 runs in the process.

I believe the Angels have the better starter on the mound in veteran Ervin Santana over rookie Christian Friedrich. The Rockies' left-hander is 1-1 with a 10.64 ERA and 2.273 WHIP in two starts inside hitter-friendly Coors Field. Santana is 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA in two career starts against Colorado.

The Angels are 40-17 in their last 57 interleague games. The Rockies are 6-26 in their last 32 Sunday games. The Angels are 8-0 in their last 8 road games. Los Angeles is 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Colorado is 0-7 in their last 7 vs. American League West. The Rockies are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague games. The Angels are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Colorado. These last five trends make for a perfect 32-0 system backing Los Angeles. Roll with the Angels Sunday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN Game 7 No-Brainer on Boston +8

The Boston Celtics have been extremely resilient in this series. After falling behind 0-2, they fought back for a 3-2 lead. After a poor effort in Game 6, I have no doubt the Celtics will show up tonight in Game 7.

Lebron James was unstoppable in Game 6, scoring 45 points on 19-of-26 shooting. It was an amazing game for him, but there's no way he has the same type of game tonight. He was hitting jump shots to score most of his points, so it was somewhat of a fluke. Doc Rivers will make sure to get the ball out of Lebron's hands early and often in this one.

The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Heat, cashing 80% of the time. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Miami. This team has won six of 10 meetings with Miami this season, yet they don't get treated like the better team from oddsmakers. I'll take full advantage once again in Game 7. Bet the Celtics Saturday.

15* Interleague Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -143

There's no question the Detroit Tigers have been struggling of last by going 3-8 in their last 11 games overall. That just means they'll be highly-motivated for a win Saturday in Game 2 of this series with the Cincinnati Reds. They'll get that victory behind ace Justin Verlander.

Verlander has picked up right where he left off last season after winning the AL Cy Young and AL MVP in 2011. He's 5-4 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in 12 starts this season while striking out 86 batters in 87 2/3 innings.

Bronson Arroyo is winless at home this year, going 0-1 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.655 WHIP in five starts inside the hitter-friendly park in Cincinnati. He's no match for Verlander in this one.

Verlander is 17-2 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 63-23 in their last 86 interleague games as a favorite. Detroit is 53-26 in their last 79 games following a loss. The Tigers are 5-0 in Verlander's last 5 interleague starts. Roll with the Tigers Saturday.

25* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Angels -144

The Los Angeles Angeles represent my strongest release in interleague action for the entire 2012 season Friday. They have a huge edge on the mound with C.J. Wilson over Alex White, plus they are playing their best baseball of the season recently.

The Angels are 11-4 over their last 15 games. The Colorado Rockies were playing pretty well too before going ice-cold at the plate in their last two contests. Colorado only managed to score a combined one run over their last two games at hitter-friendly Arizona, getting outscored 16-1 in the process.

Wilson has been worth every penny of his contract thus far. The left-hander is 6-4 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.127 ERA in 12 starts this season. Wilson has been untouchable of late, going 2-0 with a 0.45 ERA and 0.750 WHIP over his last three starts while allowing just one earned run in 20 innings.

Alex White is no match for Wilson in this one. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.416 WHIP in six starts this season. He has posted a 6.11 ERA and 1.528 WHIP over his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 27 base runners over 17 2/3 innings.

Wilson is 17-4 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. Wilson is 16-4 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

The Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 road games, 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter, and 5-0 in their last 5 as a road favorite. The Rockies are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. AL West opponents, and 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games. These five trends make for a perfect 25-0 system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Angels Friday.

15* Nationals/Red Sox Interleague No-Brainer on Washington -106

Rarely will you ever get Washington starter Stephen Strasburg at this kind of price. I'll take full advantage and back the Nationals to beat the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of this interleague series tonight.

Strasburg is one of the best starters in the big league, and Boston has never faced him, putting them at a huge disadvantage. Strasburg is 6-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.046 WHIP through 11 starts this season. He has a whopping 79 strikeouts in 65 innings.

Not only do the Nationals have a huge edge on the mound tonight, I also believe they simply have the better team. Washington leads the NL East with a 32-23 record, while Boston is just 29-28 on the season and in last place in the AL East in Bobby Valentine's first year on the job.

The Nationals are 10-2 in Strasburg's last 12 starts overall, and 8-1 in this last 9 road starts. That includes a 6-0 record in Strasburg's last 6 road starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5. Washington is 6-1 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. Boston is 7-17 in their last 24 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Nationals Friday.

15* Interleague Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +125

The Detroit Tigers should not be an underdog tonight to the Cincinnati Reds. Because Detroit has struggled through the first 1/3 of the season, they are undervalued. I have no doubt this team will turn it around to likely win the AL Central division.

Mat Latos is one of the most overrated starters in the league. He just hasn't been the same since leaving pitcher-friendly San Diego, coming over to hitter-friendly Cincinnati this season. Latos has posted a 4.91 ERA in 11 starts this season, slightly worse than the 4.86 ERA that Rick Porcello sports in 11 starts for Detroit.

This is a pretty evenly-matched game on the mound, but I believe the Tigers have a huge edge at the plate. Detroit is hitting .269 and scoring 4.7 runs/game against right-handed starters this season, while Cincinnati is batting .236 and scoring 4.1 runs/game against right-handers.

Detroit is 31-12 against the money line after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 9-28 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 since 1997. The Tigers are 37-18 in their last 55 vs. National League Central, including 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 starts vs. NL Central foes. The Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. AL Central opponents. Roll with the Tigers Friday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN Game 6 No-Doubt Rout on Boston +2

The Boston Celtics continue to get no love despite outplaying Miami for four straight games now. After blowing a big lead in Game 2 to lose in overtime, the Celtics have grabbed a stranglehold on this series. They are making all the big plays down the stretch, and that won't change tonight.

Doc Rivers is coaching circles around Eric Spoelstra in this series. He has his team playing together and making all the right adjustments, while Spoelstra has his team playing as individuals and looking lost offensively. Miami's role players have not showed up, and their chances of doing so in a hostile atmosphere tonight in Boston are slim to none.

It's amazing that the Celtics are an underdog considering the fact that they've owned Miami this season. After going 3-1 in the regular season, the Celtics are now 6-3 in all meetings with the Heat this season, including a sensational 8-1 ATS. Miami is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Boston.

Boston is 9-1 ATS in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 6-20 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games as a home underdog. Bet Boston in Game 6 Thursday.

15* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Marlins -133

After losing the first two games of this series to the Atlanta Braves, the Miami Marlins are certainly hungry for a victory in Game 3 tonight to salvage this series. I believe they get that victory behind underrated left-hander Mark Buehrle.

Buehrle has proven to be an excellent addition to their rotation in the offseason. The left-hander is 5-5 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in five home starts.

Mike Minor has been one of the worst starters in the big leagues this year. Minor is 2-4 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 10 starts, 1-2 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in six road starts, and 0-2 with an 8.04 ERA and 1.659 WHIP In his last three starts.

Minor has never beaten Miami, going 0-1 with a 7.65 ERA and 1.699 WHIP in four career starts. He gave up 6 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings of a 4-8 loss to the Marlins on May 16th. Buehrle has never lost to Atlanta, going 3-0 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in three career starts. Take the Marlins Thursday.

15* Rangers/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas -146

I'm willing to lay this juice on the Rangers Wednesday just as I did last night with Texas -152 in a 6-3 victory. This is a very good price to be able to back what I believe is the best team in baseball up against one of the worst teams in the league.

Because the Rangers have struggled of late, losing five of their last seven, they are now starting to show good value again. They should be a much bigger favorite against an Oakland team that has lost 11 of its last 13. The A's have scored a combined 15 runs in those 11 losses, getting shut out five times.

Colby Lewis is the ace of this staff at 4-4 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.125 WHIP through 11 starts. Lewis is 7-3 with a 3.44 ERA in 16 career starts against Oakland. Bartolo Colon is winless at home for the A's, going 0-4 with a 10.07 ERA and 1.933 WHIP through four starts. Colon has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers over 9 innings in his last two starts against Texas.

The Rangers are 40-17 in their last 57 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The A's are 0-5 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Oakland is 0-4 in Colon's last 4 home starts. The A's are 9-23 in their last 32 games as a home underdog. The Rangers are 14-4 in their last 18 meetings, and 6-1 in Lewis' last 7 starts vs. Oakland. Roll with the Rangers Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Thunder TNT Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5

I have backed the Oklahoma City Thunder against the spread with success in each of their last three games. However, I'm switching gears tonight and going with the San Antonio Spurs in Game 6 of this series for a few simple reasons.

Oklahoma City is still a young team and has few key players that have ever been to the NBA Finals. Close-out games are the toughest, especially when trying to advance to a stage as big as the NBA Finals. I don't believe the Thunder will be up to the task tonight.

The Spurs' lives are at stake tonight, and they'll be giving 110% for 48 minutes to try to stay alive. There's no question the Thunder will be trying hard as well, but they will likely be trying too hard which will lead to turnovers and quick shots. I just don't think they're ready to win a big game like this with what's at stake.

San Antonio, meanwhile, is a veteran bunch with several players that have been to the NBA Finals before. They have been through these elimination games, and they won't be phased by it. I look for Greg Popovich to rally his troops, and for his players to go out and execute better than Oklahoma City does.

The Spurs are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by 6.5 points/game. San Antonio is also 20-6 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by 8.8 points/game. Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -133

Motivated from losses in six of their last seven games, including Game 1 of this series with Houston, the St. Louis Cardinals are hungry for a win tonight. I believe they get that victory behind Adam Wainwright, who has absolutely owned the Astros throughout his career.

Wainwright had given up just 1 earned run over 15 innings in two starts before allowing 7 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings against the New York Mets last time out. He's still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and there's no question he'll be hungry to bounce back from one of his poorest outings of the season.

Bud Norris was even worse in his last start, allowing 9 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings to the Colorado Rockies. He has now allowed 12 earned runs over 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts. This guy simply isn't even in the same class as Wainwright.

The Cardinals right-hander is 10-1 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.012 WHIP in 12 career starts against Houston. The Cardinals are 11-1 in those games, winning 92% of the time. Wainwright has only given up 1 earned run over 31 innings in his last four starts against Houston. Take the Cardinals Wednesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -152

The Texas Rangers have lost five of their last six games overall in their worst stretch of baseball this season. That being said, there's no question they are highly motivated to get back on track tonight with a win over the Oakland A's, especially after a 1-12 loss last night.

As bad as Texas has been struggling of late, Oakland has been worse aside from a couple breakout performances. The A's are 2-10 in their last 12 games overall, scoring a combined 12 runs in their 10 losses, and getting shut out five times. They don't have the ability to bounce back like Texas does because of their lack of offensive production.

I really like Texas' chances with left-hander Derek Holland on the mound tonight. Holland is coming off his worst start of the season, so he'll obviously be motivated to dominate the A's. The left-hander is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in four road starts this season. He has owned Oakland, going 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in six career starts against the A's.

Texas is 18-3 as a road favorite of -150 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. The Rangers are 39-13 in their last 52 games following a loss. Texas is 8-1 in Holland's last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The A's are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Rangers Tuesday.

15* Giants/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -103

The San Francisco Giants are rolling right now. They have won seven of their last eight to move into second place in the NL West division, just three games behind Los Angeles. They now face the last-place San Diego Padres (18-37) in Game 1 of a new series tonight.

I really like this price we're getting with the Giants. I know Tim Lincecum has struggled in the early going, but there's no question he'll turn it around. He showed signs of that in his last start by allowing just 1 earned run over 7 innings in a 1-4 loss to Arizona.

Lincecum has owned San Diego, going 10-4 with a 1.84 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in 19 career starts against the Padres. He has given up just 2 earned runs over 29 innings in winning each of his last four starts against them. Anthony Bass has struggled of late for San Diego, giving up 11 earned runs and 21 base runners over 10 innings in his last two outings.

The Padres are 1-13 after scoring 1 run or less this season. They are losing in this spot 3.1 to 6.1 on average. The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. San Francisco is 5-0 in their last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter, and 0-4 in Bass' last 4 starts vs. NL West opponents. These five trends make for a 33-1 (97%) system backing San Francisco. Roll with the Giants Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN Game 5 No-Brainer on Boston +8

The Boston Celtics have all of the momentum heading into Game 5. They have outplayed the Miami Heat in three straight games now, though they gave away Game 2. Boston nearly blew an 18-point lead in Game 4, but managed to win 93-91 in overtime which gives them the belief they can win this series.

Last year, the Celtics lost Game 4 to the Heat in heartbreaking fashion, which put them down 3-1 in the series, thus it what basically over. Now even at 2-2, the Celtics understand they have a great shot at advancing to the NBA Finals, and I fully expect them to take advantage.

The Celtics have had an excellent game plan these last three contests, with the key being double-teaming both James and Wade with great help defense. While Chris Bosh is expected to return tonight, it could actually hurt the Heat as they've been getting used to playing without him. Plus, he'll certainly be rusty his first game back.

The Celtics are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 in road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. Miami is 6-19 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings with Miami as they clearly have their number. Bet Boston in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* Rangers/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas -122

The Texas Rangers put an end to their four-game losing streak yesterday, beating the Los Angeles Angels 7-3. Now back on track, I fully expect the Rangers to make easy work of the struggling Oakland A's tonight in Game 1 of this AL West rivalry.

Oakland fell 2-0 in Kansas City on Sunday. The A's have scored 21 runs during a 1-10 stretch - and that includes a nine-run outburst in the lone victory in that run Saturday. Oakland has been shut out in three of its last four games and is hitting .209 for the majors' worst mark.

Texas has taken 13 of the last 16 meetings with Oakland, including five of six on the road. The Rangers lead the majors with 302 runs while the A's are last in the AL with 173. Jarrod Parker is off to a solid start for Oakland, but he hasn't faced a line-up nearly as potent as the Rangers.

The Rangers are 40-16 in their last 56 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Texas is 38-13 in their last 51 during game 1 of a series. The A's are 0-8 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Oakland is 8-22 in their last 30 games as a home underdog. Roll with the Rangers Monday.

20* Thunder/Spurs TNT Game 5 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have all of the momentum heading into Game 5 tonight. They made all the right adjustments in Games 3 and 4, and I expect them to steal one in San Antonio Monday. Getting the five points is just an added bonus.

Oklahoma City has gone to a smaller line-up more frequently in the last two games, which allows them to match up with the Spurs much better. They can switch pick and rolls on defense, which takes away many of the options that San Antonio likes to use.

The biggest adjustment has been putting Thabo Sefolosha on Tony Parker defensively. Parker scored 16 and 12 points in Games 3 and 4, respectively. The Thunder won Game 4 109-103 despite off nights from Russell Wesbrook (2-10, 7 points) and James Harden (4-13, 11 points), which is a great sign for them going forward.

The Thunder are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. OKC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio's 20-game winning streak came to an end, and now they're rattled and lacking the confidence they had during their streak. Bet Oklahoma City in Game 5 Monday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Boston +2

Boston realistically should be up 2-1 in this series after blowing a late lead in Game 2. But they responded well in Game 3, topping the Heat 101-91 at home. I fully expect the Celtics to roll at home in Game 4 as well.

The home team has been absolutely dominant in this series thus far. The home squad is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings overall. Miami has really struggled against the number in Boston, going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 visits to the TD Garden.

The Celtics are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. Boston is 26-9 ATS in their last 35 Sunday games. The Celtics are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog. The Heat are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -119

I'm siding with the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday to beat the lowly San Diego Padres to take this series. San Diego has lost seven of their last eight games overall to fall to 18-36 on the season.

Arizona sends Trevor Cahill to the mound today. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in six road starts this season, pitching very well away from hitter-friendly Arizona. He has faced the Padres once this year, allowing just one earned run in 6 innings of a 4-2 Diamondbacks victory.

The Diamondbacks are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Arizona is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. The Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. San Diego is 13-42 in their last 55 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Roll with the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* Rangers/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas +100

After losing three straight, it's clear that the two-time defending AL champion Texas Rangers are hungry for a victory tonight. I believe they'll get it behind Japanese sensation Yu Darvish as he continues his impressive 2012 campaign tonight.

Darvish is 7-2 with a 3.21 ERA in 10 starts in his rookie season. He has struck out 66 batters in 61 innings. C.J. Wilson is having a solid year for Los Angeles as well, but he has struggled against his former team. Wilson is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two starts against the Rangers this season.

The Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Texas is 39-13 in their last 52 games following a loss. The Rangers are 8-2 in Darvish's 10 starts this season. Texas is 40-16 in their last 56 vs. AL West opponents. Roll with the Rangers Saturday.

20* Spurs/Thunder TNT Game 4 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -3.5

I'm siding with the Oklahoma City Thunder once again in Game 4 Saturday. They have figured out the Spurs, and they'll even this series up with a blowout victory tonight. This line is an absolute gift from oddsmakers as the Thunder should be a much bigger favorite.

Oklahoma City is 32-7 at home this season, including a perfect 6-0 at home in the playoffs. You could argue that they have the best home-court advantage in the history of the NBA. Head coach Mark Brooks has decided to put Thabo Sefolosha on Tony Parker, and it worked wonders in Game 3 as Parker was held to just 16 points.

The Spurs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as an underdog. San Antonio is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Oklahoma City is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Thunder in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 180.5

After a 115-111 overtime thriller in Game 2, I look for Game 3 to be a much more low-scoring affair. Boston knows they cannot afford to get in a track meet with Miami, and they'll control the tempo playing at home this time around.

I look for this one to be played at a pace similar to Game 1, which saw 172 combined points in a 93-79 Heat victory. Miami did figure out how to slow down Rajon Rondo in the second half of Game 2, and the Celtics figured out how to slow down Wade and James in the 4th quarter of Game 2 as neither player had a field goal in that period.

Miami is 10-2 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Miami is 4-0 to the UNDER in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The UNDER is 9-2 in Celtics last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 19-7-1 in the last 27 meetings in Boston. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog Detroit Tigers +160

The Detroit Tigers should never be this big of an underdog at home. I'll side with the Tigers to beat the New York Yankees tonight. The only reason the Yankees are so heavily favored is because the betting public had not heard of Casey Crosby.

With the Tigers placing Doug Fister on the 15-day disabled list on Wednesday, the club will call up Crosby from Triple-A Toledo to make his debut. Crosby went 4-2 with a 4.26 ERA in nine 2012 starts for the Mud Hens. The 23-year-old left-hander nearly beat out Drew Smyly for a rotation spot in spring training.

The Yankees won't have much of a scouting report on Crosby, which puts him at a huge advantage. The Tigers have certainly seen C.C. Sabathia plenty of times. Sabathia has posted a 4.61 ERA in six road starts this season, and the left-hander sports a 4.51 ERA in 35 career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 29-10 against the money line after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 28-13 against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Yankees are 0-4 in Sabathia's last 4 road starts vs. Tigers. Roll with the Tigers Friday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +135

The Minnesota Twins are trying to dig themselves out of the big hole they have gotten themselves into through the first month of the season. Having a healthy Justin Morneau back has certainly helped matter of late. Minnesota is coming off a 3-0 sweep of the Oakland A's last series.

While Minnesota is back on track, Cleveland (27-23) is reeling. The Indians have lost five of their last six overall for a big reality check. I have no doubt this is one of the worst teams in the AL Central, and that will show as the season progresses. Cleveland has simply overachieved to this point.

Twins starter Carl Pavano has been at his best on the road this season, going 2-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in five starts away from home. Derek Lowe gave up 8 earned runs over 2 1/3 innings in his last start for Cleveland. Pavano is 3-3 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 11 career starts against Cleveland, while Lowe is 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in eight career starts against Minnesota.

The Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day. Minnesota is 4-1 in Pavano's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Twins are 17-9 against the money line in June games over the last 2 seasons. Pavano is 10-5 (+9.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Twins Friday.