15* Celtics/Bucks ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -4.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are clearly the more talented team right now due to all of the injuries for Boston.  That talent shined through in Game 3, and it will once again in Game 4 today. 

The Celtics simply wanted it more in the first two games in this series.  It also helped that they shot nearly 60% in Game 2.  But as this series goes on, I think their deficiencies will start to show as there is more than a crack or two in their foundation. 

I like the resiliency the Bucks showed in Game 3 with their 116-92 blowout victory.  They will come out like gangbusters once again in Game 4 with their backs still against the wall here down in this series.  And I think this 4.5-point spread is very generous given that they are the better team right now and playing at home. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more against opponent off a home win scoring 110 or more points are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bucks in Game 4 Sunday. 

15* Thunder/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 207 

This has been an UNDER series between the Jazz and Thunder.  I think the books have set the bar too high in this Game 3.  As the series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another, and that certainly favors defense. 

The UNDER is 5-1 in the six meetings between Utah and Oklahoma City this season.  Game 1 was clearly the aberration as they combined for 224 points.  But the other five meetings saw 197, 192, 186, 194 and 183 combined points.  That’s an average of 196.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight’s posted total of 207, showing that there is a ton of value with the UNDER. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Utah) - in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 56-26 (68.3%) since 1996.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Oklahoma City) - after having won five or six of their last seven games, extremely well-rested team playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 73-33 (68%) over the last five seasons. 

Oklahoma City is 27-11 UNDER as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 11-3 UNDER off a home loss this season.  The Jazz are 8-1 UNDER in home games when playing with two days’ rest this season.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* Rockets/Timberwolves ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +4.5 

Minnesota fans will be raucous as they’ve waited a long time for a home playoff game.  Look for the Timberwolves to respond in a big way and get right back in this series with a big Game 3 win at home tonight. 

Minnesota played well in a 101-104 Game 1 loss as 11.5-point underdogs.  But they couldn’t make anything in Game 2 and lost 82-102.  They also turned the ball over 16 games and shot just 27.8% from 3-point range.  It’s safe to say they will play much better here tonight. 

I think this is the game where the Timberwolves say enough is enough.  The Rockets have had their number over the past two seasons, winning eight straight meetings coming in.  Look for them to relax enough after taking a 2-0 lead that the Timberwolves will be by far the more motivated, aggressive team in Game 3. 

Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive unders this season.  It is winning by 13.8 points per game on average in this spot this year.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday. 

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Braves +141 

The Atlanta Braves are showing great value as home underdogs to the New York Mets today.  They are sending ace Julio Teheran to the mound tonight and should not be this big of dogs. 

Teheran has given up just 3 earned runs in 12 innings over his last two starts.  Teheran loves facing the Mets, going 8-5 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 19 career starts against them. 

Jacob DeGrom is a great starter, but he’s getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He has allowed 7 earned runs over 13 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  He has also given up 6 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts against Atlanta. 

New York is 14-42 vs. teams who are outscoring their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season over the last two seasons.  The Braves are 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss.  Atlanta is 5-0 in Teheran’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Braves Saturday. 

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -120 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing great value as small home favorites over the San Diego Padres tonight.  They are getting overlooked here because Matt Koch will be making his just third major league start. 

Koch gave up just one run and five hits in six innings against the Padres in one of those two previous starts.  He pitched two scoreless innings of relief against the Cardinals on April 7th.  He is ready as he was one of the last starters optioned to Triple-A Reno out of spring training. 

Tyson Ross is getting way too much respect from the books in this one.  He missed most of the last two seasons with arm issues.  Ross hasn’t faced the Diamondbacks since 2015.  This is the best lineup he will have faced other than Houston, which he allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings against. 

The Padres are 2-7 in Ross’ last nine starts.  The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last six home games.  Arizona is 10-3 in its last 13 home meetings with San Diego.  Take the Diamondbacks Friday. 

20* Raptors/Wizards ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Washington -1.5 

The Toronto Raptors shot lights out in their first two games at home against the Wizards in this series.  They shot 53.2% in Game 1 and 16-of-30 (53.3%) from 3-point range.  In Game 2, they shot 51.7% and 13-of-35 (37.1%) from 3-point range. 

The law of averages says that they won’t shoot that well against in Game 3.  Look for a big effort from the Wizards at home here Friday night to try and get back in this series.  They have shot it pretty well these first two games with 106 points in Game 1 and 119 points in Game 2, but it wasn’t quite enough.  They will be much better defensively at home in Game 3. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Toronto) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Toronto) - hot team having covered six or seven of their last eight against the spread, with a winning record on the season are 75-39 (65.8%) ATS over the last five years.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Wizards Friday. 

15* Blazers/Pelicans NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Portland +4 

The Portland Trail Blazers are extremely disappointed to be down 0-2 in this series.  They had their chances in Game 1 and Game 2, trailing by exactly 2 points in the closing seconds both games.  They shot just 37.8% in Game 1 and 45.1% in Game 2. 

I expect the Blazers to come out with a win-or-die attitude in Game 3 tonight.  They have been bashed in the media leading up to this game, especially Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.  These guys already play with a chip on their shoulder and will only be extra motivated to make amends tonight. 

The Pelicans will likely relax now that they’ve stolen two games in Portland.  Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis have both been receiving huge praise in the media, as have Rajon Rondo and Nikola Mirotic.  Deservedly so, but that’s the type of exposure that will make players relax. 

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series recently.  The road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are only 24-17 at home this year compared to 26-17 on the road.  Plays against home favorites (New Orleans) after beating the spread by 54 or more points in their last 10 games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Blazers Thursday. 

20* 76ers/Heat TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 217 

The 76ers and Heat shot lights out in Game 1 and combined for 233 points.  They set expectations for themselves that they could not live up to moving forward.  They still combined for 216 points in Game 2, but that went UNDER the 217-point total.  And now I expect an even lower-scoring Game 3 with an identical 217-point total. 

As a series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another.  That favors defense.  I also like the fact that this series is moving to Miami.  The Heat want to slow it down, while the 76ers want to play at a fast pace.  Well, the home team is the one that usually controls the pace, so expect this to be the slowest tempo of any game thus far. 

Five of the last six meetings between Miami and Philadelphia have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  Miami is 11-2 UNDER off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 12-4 in 76ers last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last seven conference quarterfinals games.  The UNDER is 37-18-2 in Heat last 57 Thursday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* Cardinals/Cubs MLB Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -107 

After losing the first and only game in this series to the rival Cardinals 5-3, the Chicago Cubs should come back motivated for a victory here in their final game with St. Louis after Wednesday’s game was cancelled due to weather. 

Jon Lester will be up against a team that he has simply owned.  Lester is 7-5 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.003 WHIP in 17 career starts against the Cardinals. 

Luke Weaver is getting too much respect from the books due to his solid start this season.  But Weaver is up against a team he has struggled mightily against.  Weaver is 0-1 with a 12.86 ERA and 2.286 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago. 

Lester is 32-8 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage of .325 or worse over the last three seasons.  The Cubs are 37-17 in Lester’s last 54 home starts.  Chicago is 6-0 in Lester’s last six starts when working on 7 or more days’ rest.  The Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with the Cardinals.  Chicago is 4-0 in Lester’s last four home starts vs. St. Louis.  Roll with the Cubs Thursday. 

20* Timberwolves/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +10.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves gave the Houston Rockets all they wanted in Game 1.  They only lost 101-104 despite an awful shooting night in which they shot just 43.7% from the field compared to 47% for the Rockets. 

Playing playoff basketball down the stretch really helped the Timberwolves.  They needed to win Game No. 82 just to get in the playoffs, while the Rockets were coasting for weeks.  And having Jimmy Butler healthy down the stretch made all the difference for this team as well. 

They are now 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS since Butler returned from injury.  Butler meant everything for this team during the regular season.  They went 39-23 with him in the lineup, and just 8-12 in the 20 games without him.  They are certainly good enough to hang with Houston at full strength, which was evident in Game 1. 

Plays against home favorites (Houston) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 45-19 (70.3%) ATS since 1996.   

Minnesota is 22-10 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  Houston is 9-18 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season.  The Rockets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Houston.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -105 

After losing in extra innings to the Phillies yesterday, the Atlanta Braves will be out for revenge tonight.  They should get that revenge and take this series behind starter Brandon McCarthy. 

McCarthy is 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA in three starts this season.  He has been good when healthy over the last few years, but staying healthy has been the issue.  McCarthy is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA in four career starts against Philadelphia. 

Vincent Velasquez is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.369 WHIP in three starts this season for the Phillies.  His worst start came against Atlanta on March 31st when he allowed 7 runs, 4 earned, and 11 base runners in 2 2/3 innings of a 2-15 loss.  Velasquez has never beaten the Braves, going 0-2 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in five career starts against them. 

The Phillies are 20-54 in their last 74 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Philadelphia is 2-9 in Velasquez’s last 11 starts when working on four days of rest.  The Braves are 7-1 in their last eight games following a loss.  Atlanta is 4-0 in its last four during Game 3 of a series.  Take the Braves Wednesday. 

15* Pelicans/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -6.5 

After losing Game 1 in heartbreaking fashion 97-95, I look for the Portland Trail Blazers to get a big win and cover in Game 2 to get right back in this series.  They cannot afford to fall down 0-2, and the Pelicans are just happy to steal one game in Portland. 

The Blazers couldn’t have shot any worse in Game 1, yet they still about won the game.  They shot just 37-of-98 (37.8%) from the field and 12-of-39 (30.8%) from 3-point range.  I suspect the game plan will be to try and get the ball inside more to Jusuf Nurkic and to attack the rim after settling for too many jumpers in Game 1. 

The Pelicans actually shot the ball well, making 47.7% from the field.  They won’t top that number, and as long as the Blazers at least match them from a percentage standpoint, they should easily cover this spread in Game 2. 

Portland is 21-4 SU & 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 home games.  The Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the league, especially in the second half of the season this year.  With their season ultimately on the line tonight, they’ll come through with a big effort.  Take the Blazers Tuesday. 

20* Wizards/Raptors NBA Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 215 

The Wizards and Raptors combined for 220 points in Game 1.  But both teams shot lights out to get there, especially the Raptors.  I look for a much lower scoring Game 2 and for this contest to stay UNDER the 215-point total. 

The Raptors shot 53.2% from the field, 53.3% from 3-point range with 16 made 3-pointers, and 80% from the line in Game 1.  The Wizards shot a solid 47.7% from the field, 38.1% from 3-point range and 88.9% from the free throw line.  At the very least, the Raptors won’t shoot as well in Game 2, and the Wizards will be hard-pressed to match their numbers. 

Eight of the previous 11 meetings in this series saw 203 or fewer combined points.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Toronto with an average combined score of just 199.2 points per game. I think we get back to seeing a more familiar combined score between these teams, one much lower than this 215-point total.  There is clearly some value with the UNDER after a high-scoring Game 1. 

Washington is 11-3 UNDER in road games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Wizards last six games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Raptors last 14 Conference Quarterfinals games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-140) 

I backed the Yankees on the Run Line yesterday in a 12-1 victory over the Miami Marlins.  I’m going to hop back on board today with the same pick.  Instead of taking the Yankees at roughly -300 on the money line, we’ll back them at -140 on the Run Line at a much more favorable price. 

The Marlins are the worst team in baseball in my opinion.  They are just 4-12 this season with 11 of those 12 losses coming by 2 runs or more.  Their lineup is atrocious, and their rotation is awful as well.  Jarlin Garcia stands little chance of being successful against this potent Yankees’ lineup tonight. 

Masahiro Tanaka should be able to shut down the Marlins.  This is by far his easiest start of the year after facing the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox in his first three starts.  He has posted a 1.039 WHIP with 18 K’s in 17 1/3 innings thus far.  Tanaka gave up just 2 earned runs in 7 innings in his lone career start against Miami for a 2.57 ERA. 

The Marlins are 18-40 in their last 58 vs. AL East opponents.  Miami is 8-25 in its last 33 interleague road games.  The Yankees are 7-0 in their last seven interleague games.  New York is 8-1 in its last nine home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Yankees are 40-17 in Tanaka’s last 57 home starts.  New York is 5-1 in its last six home meetings with Miami.  Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* Spurs/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +10 

Greg Popovich called out his players after an ugly 92-113 loss to Golden State in Game 1.  His exact words were that they looked like a ‘deer in headlights’.  Look for his players to respond with a much better effort in Game 2 tonight. 

It was a rare performance for the Spurs in which they lost most of the 50-50 balls and were out rebounded 57-40.  They also caught the Warriors on a rare good shooting night in which they shot 54.3%, while the Spurs couldn’t make anything and shot just 40.0%.  Look for those percentages to be much closer to even in Game 2 with the Spurs covering this 10-point spread. 

Plays on road underdogs (San Antonio) - after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread against opponent after having covered two of their last three against the spread are 177-113 (61%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Golden State is 3-14 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games in the second half of the season this season.  San Antonio is 14-4 ATS after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Warriors are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Take the Spurs in Game 2 Monday. 

20* Heat/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Miami +7 

The Miami Heat actually held a 60-56 lead over Philadelphia at halftime in Game 1.  That’s why it’s so hard to believe they lost by 27.  But the 76ers couldn’t miss in the second half and rode that momentum to a blowout victory. 

This is one of my favorite situations in the playoffs.  I like backing the team coming off the blowout loss because they will be the more motivated team.  And the 76ers aren’t going to shoot 18-of-28 (64.3%) from 3-point range again. 

That was a rare blowout victory for the 76ers in this series, too.  It was only the second time in the last 16 meetings that the 76ers have beaten the Heat by more than 7 points.  They split the season series 2-2 with the Heat’s two losses coming by 2 and 6 points. 

Miami is 26-10-2 ATS in its last 38 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  Bet the Heat in Game 2 Monday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-125) 

Instead of laying -300 or more to back the Yankees on the Money Line tonight, we’ll gladly lay just -125 with them on the Run Line in hopes that they win this game by two runs or more.  I think that shouldn’t be a problem against what I believe is the worst team in baseball in the Miami Marlins. 

The Marlins are just 4-11 this season with 10 of those 11 losses coming by two runs or more.  The Yankees are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off due to weather.  Giancarlo Stanton will be excited to face his former team for the first time as well. 

Luis Severino is one of the better starters in baseball.  He went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 31 starts last season.  He struck out 230 batters in 193 1/3 innings.  He is 2-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP through three starts this season as well. 

Caleb Smith has not fared well in limited action in the big leagues in his brief two-year career to this point. He is 0-2 with a 6.47 ERA and 1.625 WHIP while allowing 23 earned runs and 6 homers in 32 innings.  He is in line to get rocked against this potent Yankees’ lineup tonight. 

The Marlins are 18-39 in their last 57 vs. AL East opponents.  Miami is 8-24 in its last 32 interleague road games.  The Yankees are 6-0 in their last six interleague games.  New York is 7-1 in its last eight home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Yankees are 7-0 in Severino’s last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record.  New York is 13-3 in Severino’s last 16 home starts.  Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Monday. 

15* Timberwolves/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +11.5 

The Houston Rockets have been the best team in the NBA during the regular season.  That makes them overvalued heading into the playoffs.  Expectations are high, and I look for them to fall short of expectations in Game 1 considering they are whopping 11.5-point favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

I think the fact that the Rockets took their foot off the gas down the stretch after wrapping up the No. 1 seed in the West will work against them early in the playoffs.  They went 1-6 ATS over their final seven games and haven’t been into it mentally.  They also have some key injuries right now with Luc Mbah a Moute and Ryan Anderson out for Game 1, and Eric Gordon questionable. 

The Timberwolves have been playing playoff basketball down the stretch.  They needed to win Game No. 82 just to get into the playoffs, and they did so in overtime against the Nuggets, so they will be oozing with confidence and feeling like they are playing with house’s money.  They also got a healthy Jimmy Butler back for the last few games of the regular season, and this team has been much better with Butler in the lineup as he has played at a near-MVP level when healthy this year. 

I also think the fact that the Rockets went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the Timberwolves this season has them overvalued, and it also has the Timberwolves motivated for revenge.  Having Butler healthy and able to guard James Harden will be huge in this series.  Butler is one of the top defenders in the league when focused, and he’ll certainly be focused in the playoffs. 

The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since Butler returned from injury.  He only played in 62 games this season.  The Timberwolves went 8-12 without him, and 39-23 with him.  That’s the kind of difference he makes for this team.  It’s safe to say Minnesota is one dangerous 8th seed, and maybe the best 8th seed I can ever remember.  Roll with the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* Jazz/Thunder TNT Sunday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -3.5 

The Utah Jazz are certainly a great regular season team.  They play solid defense and will fight you every night.  But they lack superstar power, and that’s what you need in the playoffs.  I think they are in over their heads here in Game 1 against the Thunder. 

The Thunder aren’t short on star power.  Russell Westbrook just finished averaging a triple-double for the second consecutive season, which is unheard of.   Paul George is still a Top 10 player in this league, Carmelo Anthony is hungry, and Steven Adams is one of the most underrated centers in the game because he does all the dirty work. 

I think the Jazz come in overvalued due to their big finish to the season.  But they are just 20-21 on the road, and the Thunder have an excellent home-court advantage with a 27-14 record this season.  And the Thunder own the Jazz, going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.   

The Thunder won their final three meetings with the Jazz this season by 14, 28 and 6 points.  In fact, Oklahoma City is 14-0 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Utah.  It has won those 14 meetings by an average of 14.9 points per game.  Enough said.  Bet the Thunder Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -115 

Rookie left-hander Joey Lucchesi moved into the Padres’ rotation when Dinelson Lamet suffered an elbow injury in his final start of spring training.  Lucchesi has taken advantage, going 1-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 1.021 WHIP with 16 K’s in 15 2/3 innings in his three starts against Colorado (twice) and Milwaukee. 

Fellow rookie Tyler Beede has only made one start for the Giants, and it didn’t go well.  He allowed eight base runners, including five walks, in four innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks at home.  He was clearly feeling the nerves and now will be making his first career road start. 

Lucchesi was named the Padres Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2017, going a combined 11-7 with a 2.20 ERA between his two stops with a combined .200 batting average against.  He had 148 strikeouts against only 33 walks in 139 innings.  This guy is a future star, and he’s mispriced in the early going in 2018. 

The Giants are 20-43 in their last 63 road games.  San Francisco is 3-14 in its last 17 during Game 4 of a series.  The Padres are 22-10 in the last 32 meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Diego.  Take the Padres Sunday. 

15* DBacks/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7 

The books have set the bar too low on this total between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers tonight.  Look for a slug fest similar to the 8-7 final last night as this has tended to be a much higher scoring series than it gets credit for. 

Taijaun Walker is 2-2 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in six career starts against Los Angeles.  Rich Hill is 1-6 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 11 career starts against Arizona.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hill’s last four starts vs. Arizona. 

The OVER is 9-3 in Diamondbacks last 12 vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 5-1 in Dodgers last six vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday. 

20* Heat/76ers ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Miami +7 

The Miami Heat are probably the most underrated team in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  They aren’t flashy and lack superstars, but they will fight, scratch and claw on every possession.  This is the type of team I want to get behind. 

The 76ers come into the playoffs way overvalued due to their 16-game winning streak.  Now they are being asked to lay 7 points here in Game 1 despite the fact that they will be missing their best player in Joel Embiid.  It’s always tough for young teams like the 76ers to have success in their first go-round in the playoffs, and I expect that to be the case for Philadelphia. 

The Heat have played the 76ers extremely tough this season, and in recent years.  Miami split the season series 2-2 with its two losses both coming on the road by 2 and 6 points, respectively.  Only once in the last 15 meetings have the 76ers beaten the Heat by more than 7 points, which was an 8-point win.  That makes for a 14-1 system backing the Heat pertaining to this 7-point spread.   

The Heat are 15-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  Miami is 15-3 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two years.  The Heat are 26-9-2 ATS in their last 37 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Heat Saturday. 

15* Spurs/Warriors ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +8 

The Golden State Warriors are vulnerable in Round 1 because they are missing their best player in Stephen Curry.  They just haven’t been the same without him down the stretch, and they certainly should not be laying 8 points to the Spurs in Game 1 Saturday. 

The Warriors are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  They have gone just 6-10 SU in their last 16 games.  That’s not the sign of a team that should be this big of a favorite against a Spurs team that played well down the stretch just to get into the playoffs. 

The Spurs are 10-5 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They have been playing playoff basketball for a month now because there was a brief time there where they were in 9th place in the West and in need of a big finish just to get into the playoffs. 

The last two meetings have been impressive by the Spurs.  They only lost 107-110 at Golden State as 11-point underdogs on March 8th in a game in which the Warriors needed a huge fourth quarter just to get a close win.  And the Spurs returned the favor with an 89-75 victory on March 19th at home in their most recent meeting. 

Golden State is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team that wins 51% to 60% of its games on ht season.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a win by more than 10 points.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Golden State is 9-24-1 ATS in its last 34 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Spurs Saturday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-119) 

The Houston Astros will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight following back-to-back losses at Minnesota.  They are still 9-4 on the season with seven of those wins coming by two runs or more.  So instead of laying -240 on the money line, we’ll back them on the run line at a much more favorable -119 price. 

Gerrit Cole has delivered in a big way for the Astros in the early going.  He is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two starts with 22 strikeouts in 14 innings.  One of those starts came against Texas on April 1st as he allowed just one earned run in 7 innings while striking out 11.  Cole is now 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two career starts against Texas. 

Cole Hamels has taken a big step back since joining the Rangers.  He hasn’t fared well thus far in 2018, going 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in three starts.  Hamels is 0-2 with a 9.34 ERA in his last two starts against Houston, giving up 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 8 2/3 innings. 

Texas is 1-11 off two straight losses by 4 runs or more over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to lose by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Rangers are 0-9 in their last nine vs. starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Houston is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Friday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -117 

The New York Mets are off to their best start in franchise history.  They are showing what they can do when healthy, which they weren’t last season.  They are now 10-1 on the season.  This will be their first home game since April 4th, and it will be a packed house tonight as fans show their appreciation for this incredible start. 

The Mets send Steven Matz to the mound to try and continue the success of this dominant rotation thus far.  Matz has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.333 WHIP through his first two starts this season against St. Louis and Washington.  He is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in two career starts against Milwaukee. 

The Brewers are fortunate to be 7-6 this season, because they have the third-worst run differential (-15) in the National League.  They aren’t doing anything well, but have just been fortunate in close games.  Zach Davies is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.285 WHIP in two starts this season.  Davies gave up 6 earned runs and 16 base runners in 10 innings across two starts against the Mets last season for a 5.40 ERA. 

The Mets are 7-0 in their last seven games following a win.  New York is 8-0 vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse this season.  The Brewers are 1-4 in Davies’ last five starts.  The Mets are 7-2 in their last nine home meetings with Milwaukee.  Roll with the Mets Friday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -128 

This is a pretty generous price to get the Cleveland Indians at home tonight.  Usually they are around -200 favorites at home, but tonight they are only -128.  We’ll gladly take advantage. 

One of the reasons they are undervalued tonight is because Mike Clevinger is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He went 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA last year for the Indians, and he’s 1-0 with a 0.71 ERA through two starts this season, allowing just one earned run in 12 2/3 innings. 

I’m not quite sure why Marcus Stroman is getting so much respect from the books tonight.  He is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up 9 earned runs and 17 base runners in 9 2/3 innings. 

Cleveland is 30-6 off two straight wins by 4 runs or more over the last three seasons.  The Blue Jays are 0-6 in Stroman’s last six Friday starts.  The Indians are 24-5 in their last 29 during Game 1 of a series.  Cleveland is 7-0 in Clevinger’s last seven home starts.  The Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last six meetings in Cleveland.  Take the Indians Friday. 

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockies/Nationals OVER 9 

The key handicap as to why I like this OVER tonight is the fact that the weather will be great in Washington for a high-scoring affair.  Temperatures will be in the 70’s by game time and the wind is expected to be blowing out to straightaway center at 19 miles per hour. 

I think this total is lower than it should be because both Chad Bettis (2.53 ERA) and Gio Gonzalez (1.59 ERA) have been successful in their first two starts.  But Bettis faced the Padres and Braves, while Gonzalez faced the Reds and Mets. 

These are two of the best lineups in the National League.  It will be by far the toughest test of the season for both Bettis and Gonzalez.  The Rockies and Nationals have combined for 12 or more runs in eight of their last 11 meetings with the OVER going 8-3 in those 11 games. 

Gonzalez is 16-4 OVER in his last 20 home games after giving up one or fewer earned runs in each of his last two outings coming in.  The OVER is 7-3-1 in Rockies last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 4-1 in Gonzalez’s last five starts overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn Nets -1 

The Boston Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days here tonight.  They are already short-handed with all of their injuries, and they would be wise to rest all of their starters in this final game before the playoffs. 

The Celtics are locked in to the No. 2 seed, so this game doesn’t matter to them at all.  That’s why we have seen a shift from the opener of Celtics -5.5 to the Nets being 1-point favorites.  It’s a big adjustment, but it’s not big enough.  It’s clear to me that the Nets will win this game. 

Brooklyn has been playing for pride and trying to build chemistry down the stretch.  That’s evident by the fact that the Nets are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall, including three straight victories by 8 points or more coming in.  They aren’t about to let up now. 

The Nets are 9-1 ATS in road games off a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games this season.  Boston is 6-17 ATS in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last two years.  The Celtics are 1-8 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game this season.  Brooklyn is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Boston.  Take the Nets Wednesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Timberwolves UNDER 214.5 

This is a play-in game between the Nuggets and Timberwolves.  The winner will be the 8th seed in the playoffs, while the loser will either be taking a depressing flight or bus ride home.  With what’s at stake, I fully expect this to be a nervy, defensive battle tonight. 

The Nuggets and Timberwolves recently played on April 5th less than a week ago.  The Nuggets won that game 100-96 at home for 196 combined points.  Now we are seeing a total set of 214.5, which is way too high and I believe there is value with the UNDER because of it. 

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (Minnesota) - after going under the total by 42 or more points in their last five games, when playing a division opponent are 37-16 (69.8%) since 1996. 

Minnesota is 14-4 UNDER off two or more consecutive unders this season.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-123) 

Instead of laying roughly -265 to back the Indians on the money line, we are going to take the hugely discounted price of -123 on the run line tonight.  I am sure they will get the win against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Tigers, and it’s likely to come by two runs or more due to their massive advantage on the mound. 

Carlos Carrasco is one of the better starters in baseball.  He is off to a 2-0 start with a 5.40 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in his two starts this season.  Carrasco has dominated the Tigers recently, going 7-1 with a 1.52 ERA in his last 11 starts against them, giving up just 11 earned runs in 65 1/3 innings. 

Jordan Zimmerman has been a massive bust in Detroit.  He is 0-0 with an 8.71 ERA and 1.646 WHIP in his two starts this season against Chicago and Pittsburgh, giving up 10 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings.  Zimmerman has never beaten the Indians, going 0-4 with a whopping 10.88 ERA and 2.014 WHIP in five career starts against them. 

The Tigers are 1-8 in Zimmerman’s last nine starts when working on five days’ rest.  Detroit is 17-47 in its last 64 games overall.  The Indians are 21-5 in Carrasco’s last 26 starts vs. AL Central opponents.  Cleveland is 8-0 in Carrasco’s last eight home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Cleveland is 7-0 in Carrasco’s last seven starts when working on four days’ rest.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Wednesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+130) 

Instead of laying -175 or so to back the Cardinals on the money line, I’m going to take the value and bet the Cardinals on the -1.5 run line at a +130 price.  I have no doubt the Cardinals win this game, and it’s likely they do so by 2 runs or more given their advantage on the mound. 

Carlos Martinez pitched 8 1/3 shutout innings while striking out 10 in a 6-0 win at Milwaukee in his last start.  He is now 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Brewers.  He’ll be motivated to help the Cardinals bounce back from two consecutive losses coming in, including one in extra innings last night to the Brewers. 

Brent Suter has been rocked in the early going.  He is 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.700 WHIP while allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 10 innings pitched across two starts this season.  Suter has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in two career starts against them. 

The Cardinals are 4-1 in Martinez’s last five home starts.  The Brewers are 1-4 in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 8-2 in Martinez’s last 10 Tuesday starts.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Hawks +10 

The Atlanta Hawks will be playing their season finale today at home against one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference in the Philadelphia 76ers.  They will be motivated to beat the 76ers, just as they have other playoff teams here recently. 

The Hawks are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Orlando, only lost to Miami by 3 as 13-point road dogs, beat Washington by 6 as 10.5-point road dogs, and beat Boston by 6 as 9.5-point road dogs.  Those efforts show that we are getting tremendous value with them as 10-point home underdogs tonight. 

The 76ers are grossly overvalued right now due to their 14-game winning streak.  They are certainly worthy of being favorites here tonight, but not double-digit road favorites.  Philadelphia hasn’t beaten Atlanta by more than 10 points in any of the last 17 meetings in this series, making for a 17-0 system backing the Hawks pertaining to this 10-point spread. 

Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games are 64-28 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

Plays on home teams (Atlanta) revenging a home loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS over the last five years.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +110 

The Baltimore Orioles are showing excellent value as home underdogs to the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.  They will be motivated to bounce back from a 1-7 loss to the Blue Jays in Game 1 of this series yesterday, and I actually believe they have the advantage on the mound tonight. 

Aaron Sanchez is off to a rough start for the Blue Jays, going 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.628 WHIP in his two starts this season while allowing 7 earned runs and 19 base runners in 11 2/3 innings.  Sanchez hasn’t enjoyed facing the Orioles as he has posted a 4.69 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in 10 career starts against them. He gave up 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 1/3 innings in his two starts against Baltimore last season. 

Andrew Cashner has been one of the more underrated starters in his time in the big leagues.  He is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in two starts this season.  He only allowed one earned run in 6 innings of a 5-2 win at Yankee Stadium last time out, which is no small feat.  Cashner is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in two career starts against Toronto. 

Plays on home teams (Baltimore) - off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite, a bad team (38% or less) playing a team with a winning record are 30-9 (76.9%, +24 units) over the last five seasons.  The Blue Jays are 1-5 in Sanchez’s last six starts.  Roll with the Orioles Tuesday. 

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver Nuggets -4 

The Denver Nuggets have really stepped up their game down the stretch with their playoff lives on the line.  They have gone 5-0 in their last five games overall while beating four playoff teams in Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, Indiana and Minnesota, as well as a 134-115 road win at Oklahoma City. 

The Nuggets are now tied with the Timberwolves for the 8th seed, but they currently lose out on the tiebreaker.  They play at Minnesota Wednesday night, so they must keep pace with them with a win here if they want to make the playoffs.  The Timberwolves host the Grizzlies tonight and will surely win that game. 

Portland really has nothing to play for.  The Blazers can either be the 3rd or 4th seed in the West, but that won’t be determined until they play current 4th seed Utah on Wednesday.  They will be looking ahead to that game.  The Blazers are clearly worried more about resting right now as they are 0-3 in their last three games overall and disinterested. 

The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well.  The Nuggets have won their last two meetings with the Blazers this season, one at home and one on the road.  Bet the Nuggets Monday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -125 

I expect the Philadelphia Phillies to be one of the most improved teams in baseball this season.  Their young prospects are starting to make big gains, and they added some nice pieces in free agency.  They just went off for 20 runs against the Marlins on Saturday to flash their potential. 

Ben Lively was effective in his first start this season, limiting the Mets to 2 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings for a 3.17 ERA.  Now Lively will face a poor Cincinnati lineup that will be missing one of their best players for the foreseeable future.  Third baseman Eugenio Suarez fractured his right thumb Sunday.  He has two homers and seven RBIs in eight games this season.  Lively was also drafted by the Reds, so he wants revenge on his former team. 

Cody Reed has been awful as a big leaguer for the Reds.  In 22 major league appearances (11 starts), Reed is 1-8 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.776 WHIP.  Only one of his 12 outings last year came out of the bullpen.  Reed went 0-2 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in spring training this season and it’s mind-blowing that he even has a spot in the rotation. 

The Reds are 0-11 in Reed’s last 11 starts.  Cincinnati is 23-50 in its last 73 road games.  The Reds are 12-39 in their last 51 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Phillies are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Reds are 11-27 in their last 38 meetings in Philadelphia.  Roll with the Phillies Monday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-123) 

The Cleveland Indians have a massive edge on the mound and at the plate tonight over the Detroit Tigers. Look for them to win this game by multiple runs.  So instead of laying -270 on the run line, we’ll take the much more generous price of -123 on the run line tonight. 

Corey Kluber is one of the Top 5 starters in baseball.  He has gone 0-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.800 WHIP in two starts this season, and will be motivated to pick up his first victory tonight.  Kluber owned the Tiger in his final three starts against them last year, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA while allowing just 2 earned runs in 22 innings. 

Francisco Liriano is well past his prime and fortunate to still have a spot in a rotation somewhere.  Liriano gave up 7 earned runs in 2 innings in his lone start against Cleveland last year.  Look for the Indians to finally get their bats going tonight against Liriano. 

The Tigers are 2-12 in their last 14 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Indians are 23-5 in their last 28 during Game 1 of a series.  Cleveland is 36-15 in Kluber’s last 51 starts, and 24-9 in his last 33 home starts.  Take the Indians on the Run Line Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -6.5 

The Detroit Pistons are playing for more than pride.  They want to see if they can get to .500 on the season as they are currently 38-41.  They have put themselves in this position to consider this season a success by going 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The Memphis Grizzlies could care less about winning games right now as they just want the highest draft pick possible.  They are 21-58 on the season.  It’s obvious they are trying to lose when you just look at their injury report. 

Mike Conley, Tyreke Evans, Wayne Selden, Marc Gasol, Chandler Parsons, Jarell Martin, JaMychal Green and Andrew Harrison are all expected to rest today.  They are going to be sending a bunch of D League players out there for this one, purposely trying to lose. 

Plays on road favorites (Detroit) - with a winning percentage between 40% and 49% on the season, on Sunday games are 33-6 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Pistons Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-110) 

I fully expect the Cleveland Indians to bounce back from a 1-0 loss to the Royals yesterday with a win by two runs or more today.  So instead of laying the -200 price on the money line, I’ll take the -1.5 run line. 

Mike Clevinger is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in his lone start this season.  He is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues.  Clevinger is 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in four career starts against Kansas City. 

Jason Hammel is 3-5 with a 5.37 ERA in 10 career starts against Cleveland. He gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings and 10 base runners in a 1-6 loss at Detroit in his first start this season for a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. 

Hammel is 1-17 in his last 18 games as an underdog of +175 to +250.  His teams are losing by 3.5 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line. 

20* NBA Sunday No Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets +2.5

The Pacers are coming off a 73-92 loss at Toronto.  That loss basically sealed their fate as they are now locked in to the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They would be better off resting their players and staying healthy for the playoffs now. 

The Charlotte Hornets have played much better down the stretch and have won five of their last nine games, including a 137-100 win in Orlando last time out.  They want to win their home finale here Sunday to give their home fans a lasting impression. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Hornets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Pacers, winning by 7, 12, 22 and 7 points, respectively.  Bet the Hornets Sunday. 

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-130) 

The Houston Astros are actually better on paper this season than the team that won the World Series last year.  A big reason for that was the signing of Gerrit Cole, adding another No. 1 starter to an already loaded rotation. 

Cole was sharp in his first start for the Astros.  He allowed just one run and five base runners in 7 innings while striking out 11 in an 8-2 victory at Texas.  The Astros are off to a hot start this year, going 6-2 with five of those wins coming by 3 runs or more. 

The Padres are just 2-6 on the season, picking up a rare win in Game 1 yesterday that will have the Astros motivated to bounce back with a win today.  And Bryan Mitchell, who gave up 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings of a 4-7 loss to Colorado in his first start this season, is in line to get rocked by this potent Houston lineup. 

Houston is 22-7 after a game where it had 4 or fewer hits over the last three seasons.  The Padres are 3-12 in their last 15 games overall.  San Diego is 0-5 in its last five games following a win.  Houston is 22-4 in its last 26 home games.  The Astros are 30-12 in their last 42 vs. NL West opponents.  Take the Astros on the Run Line Saturday. 

20* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Saturday No-Brainer on Denver -2 

The Denver Nuggets are 0.5 games out of 8th place in the West, and just one game behind three other teams listed 5th through 7th in the West.  They still have a great shot to make the playoffs, but they are going to likely need to win out to get in. 

The Nuggets have been doing their part as they are 4-0 in their last four games overall, beating four playoff teams in the Thunder, Bucks, Pacers and Timberwolves all in close fashion.  Winning four straight close games the way they have has to have them oozing with confidence right now. 

The Los Angeles Clippers had a shot to make the playoffs with a few weeks left, but now they are 2.5 games out with only 3 games remaining after going 1-3 in their last four games overall.  The life has been sucked out of them, and I don’t expect them to show up at all today. 

The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Clippers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 Saturday games.  Los Angeles is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Denver is 38-17 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last three seasons.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -102 

The Chicago White Sox are certainly a sleeper in the AL Central this season.  They have as much young talent as anyone in baseball, from their lineup through their rotation. 

The Detroit Tigers are one of the worst teams in baseball this season.  Their roster has been gutted, and they aren’t expecting to win this season.  The Tigers are just 2-4 this season, while the White Sox are off to a 3-3 start. 

Lucas Giolito is one of those young prospects for the White Sox.  He pitched solid in his first start, giving up 3 earned runs in 6 innings of a 4-3 win at Kansas City.  Giolito pitched 7 shutout innings in a 7-1 home victory over Detroit in his only career start against the Tigers last season. 

Michael Fulmer has struggled in recent starts against the White Sox, giving up 3 earned runs or more in four of his five career starts against them.  The Tigers are 1-7 in Fulmer’s last eight starts.  Detroit is 0-4 in Fulmer’s last four road starts.  Chicago is 4-0 in Giolito’s last four starts vs. AL Central opponents.  Roll with the White Sox Saturday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -132 

The Chicago Cubs got off to a slow start this season.  Then they got two days off on Tuesday and Wednesday and came back with an 8-0 victory over the Brewers yesterday.  They remain motivated and rested tonight. 

The Cubs have a big advantage on the mound with Kyle Hendricks tonight.  He is a Cy Young candidate year after year.  Hendricks has gone 6-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in 15 career starts against Milwaukee. 

Brandon Woodruff is 2-3 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.360 WHIP over eight career starts and two relief appearances.  He is 0-0 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his lone career start against Chicago, giving up 4 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings. 

The Cubs are 26-6 in their last 32 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Chicago is 6-1 in Hendricks’ last seven starts when working on 6 days of rest.  The Brewers are 0-5 in Woodruff’s last five home starts.  The Cubs are 6-1 in their last seven meetings in Milwaukee.  Take the Cubs Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls +10.5 

The Boston Celtics just lost to the Toronto Raptors.  It was a huge game for them as they entered just two games behind the Raptors.  But after losing that game by 18, they are now essentially locked in to the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. 

I don’t expect the Celtics to show up at all for this game.  That’s going to make it tough for them to be able to cover this massive double-digit spread.  They are banged up right now without Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart, and several others are nursing injuries. 

The Bulls continue to play for pride and have been extremely undervalued over the past week.  The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have pulled off three straight outright upsets, beating the Magic by 8 on the road as 6.5-point dogs, the Wizards by 17 at home as 7-point dogs and the Hornets at home by 6 as 5.5-point dogs. 

Chicago is a perfect 11-0 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Boston is 4-15 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins 25% to 40% of their games over the last two years.  Bet the Bulls Friday. 

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Yankees OVER 9 

The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field at about 12 MPH today inside Yankee Stadium.  That will help aid this OVER between the Yankees and Orioles. 

Kevin Gausman is coming off a terrible season, and C.C. Sabathia is far past his prime.  And both starters have struggled in recent starters against the opposition. 

Sabathia is 0-0 with a 9.82 ERA in his last two starts against Baltimore, giving up 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 11 innings.  Gausman is 0-2 with a 17.06 ERA in his last two starts against the Yankees, giving up 12 earned runs and 22 base runners in 6 1/3 innings. 

The OVER is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in New York.  The OVER is 5-0 in Gausman’s last five starts vs. New York.  The OVER is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday. 

20* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225.5 

This game will have a playoff atmosphere Thursday night.  The 8th place Timberwolves visit the 9th place Nuggets with only one game separating the two.  Both teams are trying to secure a playoff spot, and you can bet the defensive intensity will be as high as any point this season from each squad. 

I think this total has been inflated because Denver has played in some high-scoring affairs of late due to two overtime games in their last three.  But their defense has been much better down the stretch as they’ve tried to hang on for a playoff spot, winning three straight nail biters. 

This has certainly been an UNDER series.  The Timberwolves and Nuggets have combined for 219 or fewer points in 13 of their last 14 meetings.  The only exception was an overtime game.  That makes for a sweet 13-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 225.5.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -118 

The Chicago Cubs are rested and ready to go tonight.  They have had the last two days off and will be highly motivated to bounce back from two straight shutout losses.  They have been chomping at the bit to get back on the diamond and make up for it. 

The Milwaukee Brewers have already played six games and are coming off a shutout loss to the Cardinals yesterday.  They’ll be giving the ball to Brent Suter, who only has 17 big league starts to his name and is certainly getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. 

Jon Lester is also motivated following a poor start in Miami to open the season.  Look for him to be much sharper in his second start.  Lester is 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in six career starts against Milwaukee. 

Chicago is 17-4 in road games off a loss by 2 runs or less over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by 2.7 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Cubs are 37-16 in their last 53 games following an off day.  Chicago is 5-1 in its last six trips to Milwaukee, and 4-0 in Lester’s last four starts vs. Brewers.  Take the Cubs Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Mariners/Twins UNDER 8.5 

Weather conditions certainly favor the UNDER in Game 1 of this series between Seattle and Minnesota Thursday.  It will be just 37 degrees out, so the ball won’t be carrying in this already pitcher-friendly Target Field. 

James Paxton gets the ball for the Mariners.  He is coming off the best season of his career, going 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 24 starts last year.  Paxton is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.260 WHIP in three career starts against Minnesota. 

Kyle Gibson pitched a gem to open the season.  He fired 6 shutout innings in a 6-2 victory at Baltimore without allowing a single hit.  Gibson also enjoys facing the Mariners, going 4-2 with a 3.49 ERA in eight career starts against them. 

The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Paxton’s last seven road starts.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Gibson’s last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Minnesota.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/A’s UNDER 9 

Two underrated starting pitchers square off tonight when Sean Manaea takes on Doug Fister in Game 3 of this series between the A’s and Rangers.  Look for a low-scoring, pitcher’s duel tonight folks. 

Sister gave up just one earned run in 5 innings for a 1.80 ERA in his first start of the season against the Astros.  That was an impressive outing against arguably the best lineup in baseball.  Sister is 8-8 with a 3.30 ERA in 20 career starts against the A’s. 

Manaea pitched 7 2/3 innings while allowing just one run and four base runners for a 1.17 ERA and 0.522 WHIP in his first start of the season against the Angels, a 1-2 loss.  Manaea is 3-2 with a 3.98 ERA in seven career starts against Texas.  He won his final two starts against the Rangers last year, allowing just 2 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings. 

The UNDER is 6-0 in Rangers last six road games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in A’s last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Manaea’s last six starts overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Oakland.  The UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Hawks UNDER 205.5 

This is one of my favorite UNDER situations in the NBA.  The Hawks and Heat will be playing a home-and-home tonight after Miami beat Atlanta 101-98 for 199 combined points last night.  Now they will travel to play in Atlanta just one night later. 

Teams are obviously very familiar with one another when having to play two days in a row, which certainly favors defense.  And with a total now set at 205.5, it’s simply too high.   

The Heat have Hassan Whiteside back healthy, and he’s one of the top defensive centers in the NBA.  For the Hawks, they recently lost starting PG Dennis Schroeder to a season-ending injury.  He was basically their entire offense, so without him they have been lost. 

The UNDER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in this series.  The Heat and Hawks have combined for 199 or fewer points in 10 of those 13 matchups.  Miami is 9-1 UNDER in road games off a win by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 22-7 in Hawks last 29 games following an ATS win.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -125 

Johnny Cueto pitched an absolute gem to open the season and lead the Giants to a 1-0 victory over the Dodgers.  He pitched 7 shutout innings while allowing just one hit without a walk.  Look for him to pick up right where he left off. 

Felix Hernandez was effective in his only start against the Indians, pitching 5 2/3 shutout innings.  But I believe Hernandez is much harder to trust than Cueto.  Hernandez has fallen off in recent years, going 6-5 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.292 WHIP last season.  He is only a shell of his former self now. 

The Giants will be motivated after losing Game 1 to the Mariners as well.  The Giants are 13-4 in home games off a loss by 2 runs or less over the last two seasons.  San Francisco is 24-6 in Cueto’s last 30 starts when working on 4 days of rest.  Take the Giants Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -3 

The Denver Nuggets are two games out of the playoffs with five games remaining.  They have no margin for error right now.  They are coming off back-to-back impressive wins at Oklahoma City and at home against Milwaukee to give themselves a shot. 

The Indiana Pacers are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 5-0 in their last five games overall.  But they will be running out of gas soon as this will be their fourth consecutive road games in a stretch of six of seven on the road. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Denver is a perfect 8-0 SU in its last eight home meetings with Indiana.  The Nuggets have a great home-court advantage this season as they are 28-10 on their home floor. 

Indiana is 5-15 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Nuggets are 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings inside the Pepsi Center.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday. 

15* Warriors/Thunder TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4.5 

The Golden State Warriors are locked in to the No. 2 seed in the West.  They have nothing to play for the rest of the way and cannot be trusted.  The Warriors are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall. 

Injuries and a lack of motivation have been the biggest reasons for the Warriors’ struggles down the stretch.  They are still without Steph Curry, Andre Iguodala and Omri Casspi, and they recently lost Patrick McCaw to a gruesome back injury.  Meanwhile, the Thunder are at full strength. 

Oklahoma City still has a lot to play for with four games remaining.  The Thunder are currently 5th in the West, just 0.5 games behind the Spurs for the No. 4 seed.  They want that No. 4 so that they can get home-court advantage in the first round.  And they are also just one game clear of Utah and Minnesota, so they don’t want to fall further in the standings and have to play either Golden State or Houston in the first round. 

Golden State is 1-11 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) in the second half of the season this season.  The Warriors are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win.  Oklahoma City is 41-19-3 ATS in its last 63 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Take the Thunder Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-125) 

I’ll continue fading the Miami Marlins on the Run Line.  They are the worst team in baseball and it will be a profitable move to fade them on the Run Line all season.  The Red Sox are one of the best teams in baseball and are off to a 4-1 start this season. 

Miami will be up against one of the Top 5 best starters in the game in Chris Sale.  Sale dominated in his first start, pitching six shutout innings while striking out nine batters against Tampa Bay.  He will shut down this weak Miami lineup. 

Jose Urena was roughed up in his first start for the Marlins, giving up 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 10 base runners in 4 innings in a 4-8 loss to the Cubs.  He hasn’t fared well in his big league career, and he’s up against it here against this potent Red Sox lineup. 

Boston is 17-4 in interleague games over the last two seasons, winning by 1.5 runs per game.  The Red Sox are 20-3 in Tuesday games over the last two years, winning by 3.1 runs per game.  Boston is 6-0 in Sale’s last six road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Marlins are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Miami is 1-5 in Urena’s last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* Dodgers/Diamondbacks NL West ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +104 

The Arizona Diamondbacks want to make a statement in this series with the Los Angeles Dodgers.  They want to let the Dodgers know that they will compete for an NL West title this year.  It starts with Game 1 tonight in Arizona. 

The Diamondbacks certainly have the better starter on the mound in Taijuan Walker, who went 9-10 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in 29 starts last year.  He’ll be opposed by Hyun-Jin Ryu, who went 5-9 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.386 WHIP in 24 starts last season.  Ryu gave up 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 innings in his only start at Arizona last year. 

Ryu is 1-10 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over over the last two seasons.  The Dodgers are 4-11 in Ryu’s last 15 road starts.  Los Angeles is 0-5 in Ryu’s last five starts overall.  The Arizona is 20-6 in its last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the Diamondbacks Monday. 

20* Michigan/Villanova Championship Game No-Brainer on Villanova -7 

The Michigan Wolverines have had the easiest path to the Championship Game of nearly any team in NCAA Tournament history.  They haven’t had to face a 5 seed or lower in their entire path to the Final Four.  They’ve faced a 14, No. 6, No. 7, No. 9 and a No. 11 on their route here. 

Certainly, the Wolverines have been impressive, but now they have finally met their match in Villanova.  I don’t remember seeing a team quite as dominant as these Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament.  They have beaten all five opponents by 12 points or more and by an average of 17.8 points per game. 

The Wildcats have no weaknesses.  They are an elite defensive team, and they are the most efficient offensive team in the country.  They set a Final Four record by making 18 shots from beyond the 3-point line against Kansas.  But they can beat you inside and out.  It’s not a team I want to be fading with the title on the line. 

Villanova is 25-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Wildcats are 14-3 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots this season.  Villanova is 53-21-1 ATS in its last 75 non-conference games.  The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Villanova Monday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -4 

The Denver Nuggets are in must-win mode with six games remaining.  They trail 7th and 8th place Utah and Minnesota by exactly two games each for a playoff spot.  They almost need to win out to get in, and with four of their final six games at home, they have a shot. 

The Nuggets have played well at home all season.  They are 27-10 on their home floor.  And they just beat Milwaukee 134-123 on the road on February 15th in their first meeting this season.  The Nuggets are now 5-1 SU in their last six meetings with the Bucks.  They are also 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings. 

The Bucks are just 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They don’t have much to play for the rest of the way except for seeding, which doesn’t make that much of a difference between the 6th, 7th and 8th seeds in the East.  And the Bucks have some key injuries right now with Malcolm Brogdon and Matthew Dellavedova out, Thon Maker doubtful and John Henson questionable. 

Milwaukee is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  The Nuggets are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with the Bucks.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are in must-win mode with six games remaining.  They trail 7th and 8th place Utah and Minnesota by exactly two games each for a playoff spot.  They will certainly need to finish strong  to get in, and with five of their final six games at home they have a great shot. 

The Clippers have won four of their last six coming in.  That includes upset road wins at Milwaukee and Toronto.  Their only two losses came on the road at Portland and at Indiana in closely-contested battles. 

That sets the Clippers up for a revenge game here after losing 104-109 in Indiana on March 23rd just a week ago.  They don’t have to wait long for their shot at revenge, which only adds to their motivation here tonight. 

The Clippers are 10-2 ATS when playing eight or more games in 14 days this season.  The Pacers are 5-15 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two years.  Los Angeles is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Take the Clippers Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-120) 

I’ve stated before already this season that I believe you can fade the Marlins on the Run Line every game and make money.  They are far and away the worst team in baseball, and that will show over the course of a 162-game season. 

After getting a taste of the playoffs last year with Chicago, Jose Quintana wants more.  He went 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA in 14 starts with the Cubs.  He struck out 10.5 batters per 9 innings with the Cubs as well. 

Dillon Peters was in the minors last year when he got hurt fielding a ground ball.  He had to rehab his fractured thumb for three months.  And he wasn’t very effective when healthy, going 1-2 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.627 WHIP in six starts for the Marlins last year. 

The Cubs are 7-2 in Quintana’s last nine starts, including 4-0 in his last four starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Marlins are 1-7 in their last eight games vs. a left-handed starter.  Miami is 1-7 in its last eight during Game 4 of a series.  The Marlins are 0-5 in their last five Sunday games.  Roll with the Cubs on the Run Line Sunday. 

15* Warriors/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +8.5 

The Golden State Warriors are a mess right now.  They have too many injuries they are dealing with, and they don’t care about winning games because they are locked in to the No. 2 seed.  They are simply playing out the string at this point. 

That’s why they cannot be 8.5-point road favorites against the Sacramento Kings tonight.  The Warriors are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.  They are also just 3-7 SU in their last 10 games.  They have gotten some guys healthier of late, but they are far from full strength. 

The Kings have already upset the short-handed Warriors twice this season.  They Kings won 110-106 as 12.5-point road underdogs on November 27th, and they won 98-93 as 8.5-point road dogs on March 16th. 

The Warriors are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games when playing on one days’ rest.  Golden State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 when its opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Kings are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % greater than .600.  The Warriors are 11-26 ATS in their last 37 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Kings Saturday. 

25* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Kansas/Villanova UNDER 155 

Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high in this Final Four matchup between Villanova and Kansas.  They are expecting an 80-75 final, and I’m just not seeing it.  This bet on the UNDER is my favorite totals bet of the entire NCAA Tournament. 

Villanova is an elite defensive team that gives up just 70.2 points per game and 42.7% shooting on the season, including only 32.2% from 3-point range.  Kansas only gives up 71.3 points per game on 42.3% shooting on the year, including 32.7% from 3-point range. 

I think a big reason this total has been set so high is because Kansas went over against Duke last game in an 85-81 final in overtime.  But that game was only 72-72 at the end of regulation for 144 combined points, and Duke is an elite offensive team.  Having Azabuike back healthy has done wonders for this KU team defensively as he’s an elite shot blocker and rebounder. 

No question Villanova is a very good offensive team, but even they will struggle to reach 80 points against Kansas.  Villanova has allowed 68 or fewer points in five of its last six games coming in, including just 59 against Texas Tech last time out.   

I think both teams having nearly a week to prepare for each other also favors the UNDER.  These are two elite head coaches who will have their defenses prepared to stop the strengths of the opposing offenses.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-125) 

I’m of the belief that if you fade the fade the Marlins on the run line all season you will win money.  That’s especially the case when they are at home and you’re getting cheaper run line prices on the road teams. 

The Marlins have the worst roster in baseball, and it’s not even close.  Derek Jeter and company gutted the roster and basically got rid of all their best players.  It’s going to be a long season in Miami. 

Yu Darvish will be highly motivated to prove that the Cubs made the right move getting him this offseason.  He also wants to erase the sour taste out of his mouth from the World Series with the Dodgers.  Darvish 8-5 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in road games last year. 

Chicago is 16-2 when revenging a one run loss over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by 2.8 runs per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday. 

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -132 

The Tampa Bay Rays already have to play the bullpen game because they lost three starters to elbow injuries since February.  They will give the ball Andrew Kittredge, who will be making his first major league start and will try to throw as many innings as possible.  He pitched in relief in 15 games last year. 

Rick Porcello didn’t follow up his brilliant 2016 campaign with a very good season last year.  He’ll be motivated to redeem himself, starting with his first outing of the year here against the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Porcello did pitch his best on the road last season, compiling a 3.67 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in 14 starts away from home.  And Porcello is 12-8 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in 23 career starts against the Rays.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs over 26 1/3 innings for a 1.71 ERA in his last four starts against Tampa Bay. 

The Red Sox are 5–0 in their last five during Game 3 of a series.  Boston is 4-0 in Porcello’s last four road starts.  Tampa Bay is 2-9 in its last 11 Saturday games.  Boston is 6-2 in Porcello’s last eight starts vs. Tampa Bay.  Bet the Red Sox Saturday. 

15* Loyola/Michigan Final Four No-Brainer on Michigan -5 

I’ve been backing both Loyola and Michigan this entire NCAA Tournament with regularity.  It has worked out very well for me.  But when push comes to shove here, I have to side with Michigan for a number of reasons. 

Four starters, an 11-seed or lower has never made the Championship Game.  It has been a great run for Loyola, but they will finally meet their match here in Michigan. 

The Wolverines are the hottest team left, going 13-0 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have beaten Purdue by 9, Michigan State by 11 and Ohio State by 12 prior to the tournament.  They have handled their business with relative ease in the NCAA Tournament with the exception of a tougher-than-expected game against Houston. 

Loyola has been winning with smoke and mirrors, admittedly.  They were fortunate to win their first three games by a combined 4 points, including two buzzer-beaters.  And they were fortunate for an easy path.  They got to face Nevada in the Sweet 16 and Kansas State in the Elite 8 because of all the madness in that region. 

Michigan is a different animal.  The Wolverines are legitimately a top defensive team in the country.  They give up just 63.1 points per game on 42.4% shooting.  And I love the matchup for them against Loyola’s barrage of 3-point shooters. 

Michigan only allowed 5 made 3-pointers per game and only 16 attempts per game on 33.1% shooting.  They run their opponents off the 3-point line. You have to be able to penetrate to beat them, and Loyola doesn’t have those penetrators.  They are more of a passing team to find their shots, but Michigan will be ready for it. 

The Wolverines are 7-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Ramblers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Wolverines are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Michigan is 35-17-4 ATS in its last 56 neutral site games.  Take Michigan Saturday. 

25* Clippers/Blazers ESPN GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles +6.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly making a push toward the playoffs.  They are now just one game behind the Utah Jazz for the 8th and final spot in the Western Conference.  They have seven games remaining, and you can bet Doc Rivers’ team will be laying it all on the line. 

The Clippers have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their two most impressive wins both came on the road as they won 127-120 as 6-point underdogs at Milwaukee and 117-106 as 8.5-point dogs at Toronto.  They are more than capable of pulling off the upset here, let alone staying within 6.5 points. 

The Portland Trail Blazers don’t have a whole lot to play for the rest of the way.  They are stuck in 3rd place, 2.5 games ahead of 4th place.  That’s why it wouldn’t be surprising if Damian Lillard sits a second consecutive game tonight for personal reasons.  The Blazers are already without starter Maurice Harkless, and Lillard is questionable. 

The Clippers want revenge from a 122-109 home loss to the Blazers on March 18th less than two weeks ago as well.  Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series of late as the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

The Clippers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.  Los Angeles is 8-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent this season.  The Clippers are 7-0 ATS in road games after covering three of their last four this season.  Los Angeles is 10-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 197 

The Utah Jazz will be laying it all on the line defensively tonight to get a win.  They are in 8th place, but just one game ahead of the Clippers.  They will be locked in on the defensive end, and defense has been their staple all season. 

But what I really like about this UNDER is the recent head-to-head history between Memphis and Utah.  These teams always seem to play in low-scoring affairs when they get together. 

Indeed, the UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  The Jazz and Grizzlies have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last 20 meetings.  They have combined for 197 or fewer in 18 of those 20.  That’s an 18-2 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 197. 

Memphis is 10-1 UNDER in Friday games this season.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Grizzlies last nine vs. Western Conference teams.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Jazz last six home games. The UNDER is 8-2 in Jazz last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-120) 

The Miami Marlins are the worst team in baseball, period.  It will be a profitable move to fade them on the run line all season.  They have the worst lineup in baseball, and their starting rotation leaves a lot to be desired as well. 

The Cubs have a big edge on the mount with Kyle Hendricks, who has posted a 2.94 ERA over four major league seasons, going 16-8 with a 2.13 ERA in 2016.  In his final 16 starts last year, he allowed on or fewer runs in eight of them. 

Rookie left-hander Caleb Smith will make his Marlins debut after being acquired from the Yankees on Nov. 20.  Smith is a 16th-round pick out of Sam Houston State.  He only has nine games of big league experience.  That includes two starts and a 7.71 ERA last year. 

Joe Maddon is 96-47 as a road favorite of -125 or more as the coach of the Cubs.  They are winning by 2.0 runs per game on average in this spot.  Chicago is 13-6 in Hendricks’ last 19 road starts.  Miami is 1-10 in its last 11 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Cubs on the Run Line Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +1.5 

The return of starting PG Reggie Jackson to the lineup has sparked the Pistons.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Jackson played in each of the last four games.  They beat the Kings by 16, the Suns by 27, the Bulls by 22 and the Lakers by 6, so not only are they winning, they are dominating.  Their only loss came at Houston by 4 as 10.5-point underdogs. 

The Wizards are just kind of going through the motions right now.  It’s like they are trying to get the No. 7 seed, which would be smart of them because they’d face the injury-ravaged Celtics in the first round if they can get there.  They are only 1.5 games ahead of 7th place Miami and would be better off losing this one. 

The Wizards are just 5-8 SU & 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  John Wall is questionable to return tonight, and even if he does return he’ll be rusty and play limited minutes.  With the way the Pistons are playing right now, they are good enough to beat Washington regardless of Wall’s status.  And they want revenge to avoid the season sweep after losing each of their first three meetings to the Wizards this year. 

Plays on home favorites (Detroit) - revenging two consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite, who are off two or more consecutive home wins are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Pistons Thursday. 

15* Penn State/Utah NIT ANNIHILATOR on Utah +4 

I’ve been riding the Utah Utes hard toward the end of the season and I’m not about to stop now.  Especially with them showing so much value as 4-point underdogs to the Penn State Nittany Lions in the NIT Championship Game. 

The Utes are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall.  They are also 11-4-1 ATS int heir last 16 games.  Four of their last five wins have come by double-digits, with the exception of their gutsy 69-64 victory over a game Western Kentucky team in the Semifinals.   

And the Utes got to play the early game on Tuesday, so they were able to come back out to the court and watch Penn State and scout them.  I think that’s a huge advantage for the team that played the early game in these types of situations where there is only one day in between games.  The Utes will be the more prepared team because of it. 

The Utes are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.  Penn State is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games after having covered six or seven of its last eight games coming in.  The Nittany Lions are being overvalued tonight.  Roll with Utah Thursday. 

20* 2018 MLB Season Opener on Boston Red Sox -154 

There are seven great teams in MLB and basically everyone else after.  The Red Sox are among those seven with one of the best lineups in baseball and a solid rotation, led by Ace Chris Sale who gets the ball on Opening Day. 

Sale went 17-9 with a 3.12 ERA and 0.994 WHIP with 314 strikeouts last season.  Sale is 8-5 with a 3.28 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in 14 career starts against Tampa Bay.  He’ll be opposed by Chris Archer, who always gets worked by the Red Sox, going 2-12 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in 19 career starts against them. 

This Rays’ lineup is atrocious.  They got rid of arguably their three best hitters from last season in Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison and Corey Dickerson.  What’s left over is a pile of garbage, and Sale should have his way tonight. 

The Red Sox are 5-1 in Sale’s last six starts vs. Tampa Bay.  The Rays are 3-11 in Archer’s last 14 starts vs. Boston.  Bet the Red Sox Thursday. 

20* Cavs/Hornets NBA TV No-Brainer on Charlotte PK 

The Charlotte Hornets have decided to finally play up to their potential down the stretch.  Now, with the Cleveland Cavaliers coming to town, there’s no doubt they will be laying it all on the line to try and beat Lebron James and company tonight. 

The Hornets are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall, outscoring their opponents by an average of 20.0 points per game.  Dwight Howard has been a beast down low, averaging 24.3 points and 22 rebounds per game during this stretch.  Kemba Walker has scored 24 or more points in five straight. 

The Cavaliers are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They haven’t had two days off in a row since the All-Star Break.  Plus, they are short-handed right now as they are likely to be without both Kevin Love and Kyle Korver tonight. 

Cleveland is 4-17 ATS off a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Cavs are 1-11 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the last three years.  Cleveland is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* Bucks/Clippers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3 

The Los Angeles Clippers still have a great shot to make the playoffs.  They are just two games behind 8th place Minnesota for the 8th and final spot.  And the Clippers have a reasonable schedule the rest of the way with six of their final nine games at home. 

The Clippers have stayed alive by pulling off upset road wins at Milwaukee 127-120 as 6-point underdogs and at Toronto 117-106 as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now they get to host the Milwaukee Bucks, who have been struggling down the stretch. 

The Bucks are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They don’t have much to play for as they are basically assured a playoff spot, but it’s either going to be the 6th, 7th or 8th seed no matter what.  Their only concern down the stretch is probably trying to maneuver to face Boston in the first round. 

Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS when playing eight or more games in 14 days this season.  Milwaukee is 12-21 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  The Bucks are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Clippers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Bet the Clippers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5 

This young Sacramento Kings team is looking to build toward the future.  They aren’t concerned with where they will be drafting at all.  That has been evident by the fact that the Kings have gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have made me a lot of money down the stretch, and I’ll gladly back them as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Dallas Mavericks tonight. 

Dallas owner Mark Cuban wanted to tank down the stretch, but it didn’t go over to well with a couple players.  But now it appears they have given in as the Mavericks are 0-5 SU in their last five games overall.  They have a ton of injury issues right now with Wesley Matthews and Jose Barca out, and Dwight Powell, Dirk and Dennis Smith Jr. all banged up and questionable. 

Sacramento has had Dallas’ number in recent years, going 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They won in Dallas 114-109 as 7-point underdogs in their last meeting on February 13th.  Given that they are by far the healthier team now, look for the Kings to take care of business at home tonight. 

Dallas is 1-10 ATS in road games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 9.3 points per game on average in this spot.  The Mavericks are 6-16 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  Dallas is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games vs. a team with a winning % of less than .400.  Sacramento is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .600. Take the Kings Tuesday. 

15* Western Kentucky/Utah NIT ANNIHILATOR on Utah +2 

The Utah Utes are playing like an NCAA Tournament team down the stretch.  They are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall.  They are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games.  They are being undervalued once again tonight as underdogs to Western Kentucky in the NIT Semifinals. 

Each of Utah’s last four wins have come by double-digits.  That includes a 26-point win over LSU and a 9-point road win at St. Mary’s in their last two games to punch their tickets to Madison Square Garden.  This is a team that I have been riding and will continue to ride tonight. 

No question Western Kentucky has been impressive as well in beating Boston College, USC and Oklahoma State.  But both USC and Oklahoma State didn’t take the NIT too seriously because they each felt like they should have made the NCAA Tournament.  Now they face a team that really wants to be here in Utah. 

The Utes are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games off a game where they committed 8 or fewer turnovers.  Utah is 47-22 ATS in its last 69 games after two straight games where it was called for 15 or fewer fouls.  The Utes are 8-2-1 ATS int heir last 11 games following a win.  Roll with Utah Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4.5 

The Detroit Pistons have been playing great to close out the season.  They are starting to show what they are capable of when they are healthy, which recently happened with the return of Reggie Jackson to the lineup.  They are building for next year and aren’t taking games off like many of the rest of the teams in the league. 

The Pistons are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They went into Sacramento and won by 16 as 4-point favorites, won by 27 at Phoenix as 8-point favorites and crushed Chicago by 22 as 13-point favorites.  Their only loss came by 4 at Houston as 10.5-point dogs, which is the hottest team in the NBA. 

The Lakers are not playing well down the stretch now that they’ve officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  They are just 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only win came 100-93 over Memphis, a Grizzlies team that is clearly tanking.  And the Lakers have some significant injuries right now as Isaiah Thomas is out, Brandon Ingram is doubtful and Julius Randle is questionable. 

Detroit is 21-8 ATS in home games when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last three seasons.  The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one days’ rest.  Detroit is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pistons Monday. 

15* Jazz/Warriors NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -5.5 

The Golden State Warriors are stuck in limbo.  They cannot catch the Rockets for the No. 1 seed, and they are well ahead of the No. 3 seed.  They are basically locked into the No. 2 seed.  That’s why I question their motivation the rest of the way, and they are more than happy to just rest all of their injured players now. 

And boy have the Warriors been hit hard by injury.  They are playing without their three best players in Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.  Omri Casspi is still out, and Draymond Green, Patrick McCaw and Nick Young are also showing up on the injury report.  That’s why the Warriors are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The Jazz are a team nobody wants to face right now.  They have gone 22-4 SU in their last 26 games overall.  They are certainly good enough to go on the road and beat the depleted Warriors, who are not a playoff team in their current state. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - a good team that outscores its opponents by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games are 75-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Utah is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Roll with the Jazz Sunday. 

20* Duke/Kansas Elite 8 No-Brainer on Kansas +3 

The Kansas Jayhawks have had the luxury of playing close to home by earning the No. 1 seed.  Their first two games were in Wichita, KS, and their last two are in Omaha, NE.  They have had a huge following and it has certainly been an advantage. 

And the Jayhawks have been dominant.  They have held double-digit leads late in all three of their games against Penn, Seton Hall and Clemson.  Both Seton Hall and Clemson made runs late with the game out of reach already to make the final scores closer than they appear, and cost bettors who backed Kansas, including myself. 

Duke has faced the easier schedule to get here and is getting too much respect from oddsmakers as the favorite in this matchup.  Kansas should be favored.  Duke has had to beat Iona, Rhode Island and Syracuse.  This will be by far their biggest challenge, whereas Kansas has already played two stout opponents in Seton Hall and Clemson. 

Duke also hasn’t faced a team that can shoot the 3-pointer like Kansas.  The Jayhawks made at least 10 shots from 3-point range for the 19th time this season against Clemson.  They have gone 17-2 in those games.  Duke’s zone defense has been getting a lot of headlines, but the Jayhawks have the type of team that can actually exploit it.  Plus, Udoka Azubuike is back healthy and playing well after scoring 14 points with 11 rebounds against Clemson. 

The Jayhawks are 8-2-1 ATS int heir last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kansas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC opponents.  The Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Duke.  Bet Kansas Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Antonio Spurs -2.5 

Back on March 13th, the San Antoni Spurs were in 9th place in the West and in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1996-97.  But then they got healthy and showed their resiliency.  The Spurs have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their six games since. 

Now the Spurs are only 2.5-point road favorites against a banged-up Milwaukee Bucks team that is now playing well at all right now.  The Bucks are just 5-9 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are without both Malcolm Brogdon and Matthew Dellavedova still, and now Giannis Antetokounmpo is highly questionable with an ankle injury. 

The Spurs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a win.  San Antonio is 7-0 ATS when its opponent allows 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Milwaukee is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Western Conference opponents.  San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Milwaukee.  Take the Spurs Sunday. 

20* FSU/Michigan Elite 8 No-Brainer on Michigan -4.5 

I’ve been backing Michigan the entire tournament and I’m not about to stop now.  They completely lucked out with the way this has played out as they are clearly the best team among the Elite 8 remaining in the left side of the bracket.  But they have done their part since early February. 

Indeed, the Wolverines are 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have beaten Ohio State (by 12), Michigan State (by 11) and Purdue (by 9) to close out the Big Ten season.  And while they were fortunate to get by Houston, they have won and covered easily in their other two games in the NCAA Tournament with a 14-point win over Montana and a 29-point win over Texas A&M. 

I think Florida State is easily one of the worst teams left in the tournament.  The Seminoles didn’t pick up many impressive wins all season, and then they come out of nowhere to beat both Xavier and Gonzaga these last two games.  But I think their true colors show here against one of the best teams they have faced all season in Michigan tonight. 

I also like the fact that Michigan got to play the early game on Thursday.  That means they were able to sit around after beating Texas A&M and watch the FSU/Gonzaga game.  That’s a huge advantage for the team that played the first game in terms of rest and preparation heading into the next round when there’s only one day in between games. 

The Seminoles are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Wolverines are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Michigan is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 games overall.  The Wolverines are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 neutral site games.  Bet Michigan Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans have had to dig deep here of late.  They had to play 5 games in 6 days due to a game getting postponed.  What’d they do?  Just go 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in those five games.  And while most teams would have a letdown off such a tough stretch, that won’t be the case for the Pelicans tonight. 

That’s because they’ll be extra motivated for revenge against Houston after just losing to the Rockets 101-107 at home as 8.5-point underdogs on March 17th exactly a week ago today.  They didn’t even have Jrue Holiday for that game, but now he’s back and healthy.  The same cannot be said for the Rockets. 

The Rockets are likely to be without Chris Paul once again tonight due to a hamstring injury.  And the Rockets basically have the No. 1 seed wrapped up in the West, so they don’t need to force the issue.  They could also be without Luck Mbah a Moute, who left last game with a knee injury.  It was a lackluster effort for the Rockets as they only beat the Pistons 100-96 as 10.5-point favorites on Thursday.  Don’t expect them to have their ‘A’ game tonight, either. 

New Orleans is a perfect 10-0 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more this season.  It is coming back to score 118.2 points per game next time out and outscore the opponent by 6.5 points per game.  The Pelicans are hitting on all cylinders offensively right now and have what it takes to match Houston, especially if Paul and Mbah a Moute are both out as expected.  The Rockets are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Saturday. 

15* Loyola/K-State Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Loyola-Chicago +1.5 

I’ve been riding Loyola-Chicago hard through the first three rounds of the NCAA Tournament.  I’m not about to stop now when they’re up against arguably the worst team they’ve had to face yet in Kansas State in the Elite 8.  They already dispatched of Miami, Tennessee and Nevada, and yet here they are once again underdogs when they should be the favorites. 

The Ramblers just have no weaknesses.  They play elite defense, giving up just 62.4 points per game and 41.6% shooting, including only 32.9% from 3-point range.  Offensively, they shoot 50.7% as a team and 39.7% from 3-point range with a plethora of their regular players being able to knock down the 3-pointer.  Plus, they share the basketball better than anyone in the tournament, averaging 16 assists per game. 

Kansas State caught a break getting this far.  They beat an injury-plagued Creighton team, got to face UMBC after their upset over Virginia, and caught Kentucky on an off night where the Wildcats couldn’t throw the ball into the ocean, especially from the free throw line.  And K-State got hot from 3-point range against Kentucky despite the fact that they only shoot it at a 34.5% clip for the season.  Their luck runs out tonight. 

I also like the fact that Loyola-Chicago got to play the early game on Thursday.  That means they were able to sit around after beating Nevada and watch the K-State/Kentucky game.  That’s a huge advantage for the team that played the first game in terms of rest and preparation heading into the next round when there’s only one day in between games. 

Kansas State is 0-7 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  Loyola is 10-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  The Ramblers are 6-0 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest over the last two years.  Loyola is 5-0 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Ramblers.  Take Loyola-Chicago Saturday. 

15* Texas Tech/Purdue Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +2 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders were the best team in the Big 12 for the majority of the season.  They went into Kansas and won early in the conference season back when they were at full strength. 

But then injuries hit and the Red Raiders struggled down the stretch.  Leading scorer Keenan Evans had turf toe, and the Red Raiders went 2-5 during that stretch.  Zach Smith also missed 14 games with an injury.   

But now both Evans and Smith are back to being healthy, and the Red Raiders are playing like they did earlier this season.  They are basically 24-4 in games in which Evans had been healthy.  This is a dangerous team and one capable of a Final Four run because they are loaded everywhere and play elite defense.  They give up just 64.6 points per game and 40.3% shooting on the season. 

Purdue suffered a big blow when center Isaac Haas (14.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg) suffered a broken elbow in the Round of 64.  The Boilermakers were fortunate to get by Butler 76-73 without him last round, but now they take a step up in class here. 

The Boilermakers have been struggling for quite some time anyway, going just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  They are also 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Take Texas Tech Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -2.5

The San Antonio Spurs have responded well.  Just over a week ago they were in 9th place in the West and in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since the 1996-97 season.  But they knew they had a great stretch coming up with a six-game home stand. 

The Spurs have taken advantage by going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have won three times by 14 points or more with four of their five wins coming against playoff teams.  Look for them to cap off this 6-game home stand with another win and cover at home against Utah. 

The Spurs will be highly motivated for a win to avoid the season sweep against Utah, which has won the first three meetings.  The Spurs are 39-8 SU & 30-14-3 ATS in their last 47 home meetings with the Jazz.  And now they catch a tired Jazz team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days following a 119-112 win in Dallas last night. 

Plays on favorites of 3 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after leading their last three games by 5-plus points at halftime against opponent after scoring 115 points or more are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 11-3 ATS in home games off a home win this season.  Bet the Spurs Friday. 

15* Clemson/Kansas Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -4.5 

Because they earned a No. 1 seed, the Kansas Jayhawks have had the luxury of playing near home.  They played in Wichita, KS the first two rounds, and now they get to play in Omaha, NE the next two rounds.  They will certainly have a big home-court advantage for this Sweet 16 matchup with Clemson. 

I think this line is lower than it should be for two reasons.  One, Kansas failed to cover as 4.5-point favorites in an 83-79 win over Seton Hall.  But Seton Hall couldn’t miss from 3-point range down the stretch as the Jayhawks couldn’t sustain their double-digit lead.  And the Pirates even got a 3-pointer at the buzzer to cover. 

Conversely, Clemson had its best game of the season in an 84-53 win over rival Auburn.  But that Auburn team was fading down the stretch due to injuries and was ripe for the picking.  They had nearly lost in the Round of 64 the game before.  So Clemson’s win over Auburn looks more impressive than it really was. 

Kansas just got back stud center Udoka Azubuike (13.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg) for the Round of 32 matchup with Seton Hall.  Now with a game under his belt, and with four days off since their win over the Pirates Saturday, Azubuike should be back in game shape and ready to dominate.  Clemson is undermanned inside and will have a really difficult time dealing with him. 

Clemson is 0-6 ATS after leading its last two games by 10-plus points at the half over the last two seasons.  Kansas is 8-1-1 ATS in it last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. ACC opponents.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big 12 foes.  Roll with Kansas Friday. 

15* Hawks/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5 

The Sacramento Kings are rested and ready to go tonight.  They have had two days off since last playing on Monday in a disappointing home loss to the Pistons.  But they were without one of their best scorers in Bogdan Bogdanovic for that game, and he is expected to return to the lineup tonight. 

The Hawks ended a six-game losing streak with a shocking 99-94 win at Utah as 13.5-point underdogs last time out.  Dennis Schroeder had a career-high 41 points in the win.  Off such a big victory, it’s only human nature for the Hawks to suffer a letdown here against the Kings their next time out. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Sacramento is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the Kings Thursday. 

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -5.5 

The Kansas State Wildcats caught a lucky break getting UMBC in the Round of 32 after the Retrievers upset Virginia in the biggest upset in tournament history.  They did not play well against UMBC, and were fortunate to come away with a sloppy 50-43 victory as 10-point favorites.  Their luck runs out in the Sweet 16. 

Now they have to go up against the buzz saw that is Kentucky.  In typical John Calipari fashion, his young team has gotten better as the season has progressed and they have hit their stride.  Indeed, the Wildcats are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  And now they are only being asked to lay 5.5 points to a middling Big 12 team that was fortunate just to get into the NCAA Tournament. 

Not only have the Wildcats been winning during this run, they’ve been dominating.  Seven of their nine wins have come by double-digits, including victories over fellow NCAA Tournament teams Alabama (by 10), Arkansas (by 15), Missouri (by 21), Alabama (by 23) and Buffalo (by 20).  This game against Kansas State is actually a step down in class compared to what they’ve been up against recently. 

Kentucky is 31-15-5 ATS in their last 51 neutral site games, including 7-1 ATS in neutral site games this season.  Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Kentucky Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Pelicans UNDER 230 

The New Orleans Pelicans have to play their 3rd game in 3 days tonight.  They had to reschedule a game which put themselves in this position.  Clearly, they will be as tired as they have been at any point this season.  As a result, I look for this game against the Lakers to be played at a slow pace, and for the tired legs of the Pelicans to result in a poor shooting performance. 

The Lakers are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four games.  They have combined for 215, 223, 183 and 210 points in their last four games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Pelicans last five games with combined scores of 191, 208, 197, 220 and 188 points.  Given those numbers, this 230-point total has been set way too high tonight. 

I big reason for the Lakers going under recently is that they are playing without leading scorer Brandon Ingram (16.2 ppg).  Jrue Holiday missed the first game of this three-game set due to the flu, and he needed intravenous fluids at halftime to get through their 96-92 win over the Pacers last night.  So they don’t have their floor general at full strength right now. 

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 75-37 (67%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* Texas A&M/Michigan Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Michigan -2.5 

The line value is clearly with Michigan in this one.  Texas A&M was a 7-point underdog North Carolina in its last game.  But after its best game of the season, it is now just a 2.5-point underdog to Michigan.  I look at UNC and Michigan as pretty equal teams, if anything the Wolverines are better. 

After their best game of the season, obviously the Aggies are overvalued right now.  And couple that with the fact that the Wolverines are coming off a fortunate buzzer-beating win over Houston, and it’s easy to see why this line has been adjusted so much.  But I think it’s too much, and Michigan is more than 2.5 points better than Texas A&M on a neutral. 

I think North Carolina was overrated and Houston was underrated as well.  That was a rare test for Michigan here to close out the season.  The Wolverines have been dominating, going 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Nine of those 11 wins have come by 9 points or more, including victories over the best in the Big Ten in Ohio State (by 12), Michigan State (by 11) and Purdue (by 9). 

Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games overall rate last two seasons.  The Aggies are 3-11 ATS after scoring 85 points or more over the last three years.  Texas A&M is 2-9 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last two seasons.  The Wolverines are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games.  The Aggies are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Take Michigan Thursday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +8 

The Orlando Magic have continued to play for pride.  They beat Milwaukee, and gave both Boston and Toronto a run for their money in their last three games.  Well, Toronto and Boston are the two best teams in the East.  Now they play another Eastern Conference playoff team in Philadelphia and are catching 8 points at home tonight. 

The 76ers are being overvalued coming off four consecutive victories.  But this is a tough spot for them as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days.  I don’t believe they’ll have much left in the tank for the Magic tonight. 

Philadelphia is 4-12 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season.  The Magic are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss.  The 76ers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Philadelphia is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 Thursday games.  Orlando is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

15* Utah/St. Mary’s NIT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +7 

The way the Utah Utes are playing to close out the season, they certainly should not be 7-point underdogs to St. Mary’s with a trip to Madison Square Garden on the line tonight.  The Utes are 8-2 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games, and 11-4 SU & 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15. 

There’s no question the Utes are the more rested team here after they made easy work of LSU in a 95-71 victory on Monday.  Meanwhile, the Gaels were in a dog fight with Washington in an 85-81 victory as 11-point favorites.  And Utah is a better team that Washington in my opinion. 

The Gaels aren’t playing well enough down the stretch to warrant being 7-point favorites, either.  They are still disappointed they didn’t make the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall, consistently being overvalued by oddsmakers. 

These teams have played six games against common opponents this season.  Utah has gone 5-1 in those games and outscored those teams by an average of 10.3 points per game.  St. Mary’s has gone 4-2 in those games while only outscoring those teams by 3.7 points per game.  Common opponents are a great way to compare teams, and it shows that Utah is actually the better team in this matchup. 

Utah is 8-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season.  The Utes are 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots over the last three years.  St. Mary’s is 3-11 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest this season.  The Gaels are 1-7 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  St. Mary’s is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Utah Wednesday. 

20* Raptors/Cavs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Cleveland -1.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have won three of their last four games with their lone loss coming at red-hot Portland.  They are rested having yesterday off and will be highly motivated for a victory tonight with the top team in the Eastern Conference coming to town.  They want to show that they are still the kings of the East. 

This is a very tough rest situation for the Raptors.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 5th game in 7 days, and their 10th game in 16 days.  That’s about as difficult as it gets in terms of rest situations.  Plus, the Raptors could be without two key players in DeMar DeRozan and Fred VanVleet, who are both questionable with thigh and wrist injuries, respectively. 

Cleveland is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine home meetings with Toronto.  Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Cavs as this small of a home favorite, so we’ll take advantage tonight.  The Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday. 

20* Rockets/Blazers TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland +5 

What more do the Portland Trail Blazers have to do to get some respect?  They have gone 15-1 SU & 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  And yet they’re still 5-point home underdogs to the Houston Rockets tonight. 

The Blazers have really some some damage at home.  They are 18-1 SU & 17-2 ATS in their last 19 home games.  It will be a packed house with the Houston Rockets coming to town tonight.  Look for the Blazers to pull off the upset, though we’ll take the points for some added insurance. 

I question Houston’s motivation the rest of the way.  The Rockets basically have the No. 1 seed in the West wrapped up.  They are 3.5 games ahead of the Warriors, who are without Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant right now.  They know they can basically coast to the finish line now and still get the No. 1 seed. 

The Blazers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rockets are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are on a mission to make the playoffs.  They are currently the No. 7 seed in the West at 40-30 on the season, but they are just 2.5 games ahead of 9th place L.A. Clippers.  They cannot afford to take any teams lightly the rest of the way, and they certainly haven’t been. 

Indeed, the Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Two of those losses came without Anthony Davis, who is back healthy and playing at an MVP level.  They just blasted Boston 108-89 at home last time out. 

The Mavericks are not healthy and have nothing to play for.  Both Dennis Smith Jr. and Wesley Matthews are out, while Jose Barea is questionable.  The Mavs are just 22-48 on the season, including 8-26 on the road.  The Pelicans just beat the Mavs 126-109 on the road as 3.5-point favorites on March 4th, and now they get them at home this time around. 

Dallas is 2-10 ATS vs. teams who allow 110 or more points per game this season.  The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Pelicans Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +10.5 

I question the motivation of the Toronto Raptors the rest of the way.  They have a 5-game lead over the Boston Celtics for the No. 1 seed in the East.  And now the Celtics are playing without Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown.  They Celtics are basically locked in to the No. 2 seed. 

The Magic have played tough in their last two games, upsetting Milwaukee 126-117 as 10-point home underdogs, and giving Boston a battle at home as 7-point underdogs.  They will certainly show up for the Toronto Raptors tonight, and they’ll be rested.   

The Magic have had the last three days off and come in fresh.  The spot is a bad one for Toronto, which has a road game on deck tomorrow against Cleveland and will likely be looking ahead to that matchup.  The Raptors won’t give the Magic their full attention, and that will allow the Magic to hang tough for four quarters. 

Orlando is 22-10 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last three seasons.  Plays on home teams (Orlando) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Magic Tuesday. 

20* Pistons/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +3.5 

The Sacramento Kings have been flying under the radar for weeks.  They have gone 5-5 SU but 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have beaten the Warriors and Heat outright as underdogs, while also giving teams like Utah and Oklahoma City a run for their money on the road during this stretch. 

The Detroit Pistons have basically packed it in.  They are now 6.5 games out of 8th place in the East and won’t be making the playoffs.  They simply cannot be favored on the road tonight with the way they are playing right now.  The Pistons are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games. 

The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Detroit is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Pistons are 0-3-2 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the home team tonight.  Bet the Kings Monday. 

15* Warriors/Spurs ESPN Monday No-Brainer on San Antonio -7 

The San Antonio Spurs have faced some adversity here of late and have responded well.  Just a few days ago they were in 9th place in the West and in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1996-97.  They have gotten healthy and played some of their best basketball this past week. 

Indeed, the Spurs are 3-00 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  They beat the Magic by 36 at home, the Pelicans by 5 at home and the Timberwolves by 16 at home.  This run has coincided with the healthy returns of both LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay to the lineup, among others. 

The Warriors are in terrible shape right now.  They are missing their top three scorers in Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant.  They are also without key role player Omri Casspi.  It’s no wonder the Warriors are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. 

The Spurs are 11-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Golden State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Spurs Monday. 

15* NIT Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford +8 

The Stanford Cardinal have been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 all season.  They have gone 14-6 ATS in their 20 games in 2018, which has been the bulk of their Pac-12 season and into the NIT with their 86-83 win over BYU last week.  Now they are catching 8 points against Oklahoma State, which is too much. 

The Cowboys felt like they should have made the NCAA Tournament with the way they played down the stretch.  But they didn’t get in, and I have to question their motivation playing in this ‘consolation’ tournament.  They did beat Florida Gulf Coast 80-68 as 11-point favorites in their opener, but now they take a big step up in class tonight. 

The Cowboys are just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Cardinal are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.  Stanford is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinal are 11-4 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in a week this season.  Stanford is 32-15 ATS in its last 47 road games off a win by 6 points or less.  Roll with Stanford Monday. 

20* Blazers/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2 

Note: I’m writing this analysis on Saturday night.  I’m taking the Los Angeles Clippers largely because of the situation.  The Blazers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here, while the Clippers had Saturday off and will be rested. 

I think the Blazers are overvalued right now due to their NBA-high 11-game winning streak, which would extend to 12 if they are to beat the Pistons as expected at home as 8.5-point favorites Saturday night.  They are starting to get a lot of love from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers, and this is a great spot to fade them. 

Meanwhile, the Clippers have been flying way under the radar.  They have gone 14-7 in their last 21 games overall and are on the verge of making the playoffs at 37-31 on the season.  They are only 1.5 games back of 8th place in the West.  They need this victory more, and they’ll be hungry off back-to-back tough losses at Houston and Oklahoma City in which they had a chance to win both games in the closing minutes. 

The Clippers have won four of their last five meetings with the Blazers.  The Blazers have had the luxury of playing eight of their last nine games at home as this will be just their 2nd road game since February 24th. They barely won 108-103 over the Lakers in their lone road game during this stretch.  They won’t be so fortunate against these pesky Clippers tonight.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* Marshall/West Virginia CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Marshall +12.5 

Marshall showed the world what they were capable of when they won 81-75 over Wichita State in the opening round as 13.5-point underdogs.  It was just the fruits of head coach Dan D’Antoni’s labor.  This is one of the most dangerous teams in the tournament because of how well they shoot the ball in D’Antoni’s system. 

The Thundering Herd are a tough team to prepare for because they spread you out and shoot 28 3-pointers pe game.  The result has been a high-octane offense that averages 84.2 points per game.  The Thundering Herd’s top six scorers this season all shot 32.5% or better from 3-point range, led by Jon Elmore (22.8 ppg, 6.9 apg, 6.0 rpg), C.J. Burks (20.5 ppg) and Ajdin Penava (15.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.9 bpg). 

I think you throw in the rivalry element here and Marshall won’t just be satisfied with beating Wichita State.  Now they want to upset their ‘big brother’ in West Virginia, which has decided to end the yearly rivalry unless Marshall agrees to play in Morgantown every year.  The Thundering Herd would love nothing more than to exact their revenge here and end the Mountaineers’ season. 

Marshall is a perfect 10-0 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest this season.  I think the lack of time for opponents to prepare for them has worked in their favor all season, and it will certainly be an advantage for them here against West Virginia.  The Thundering Herd got to play the early game in this San Diego regional on Friday and got to watch West Virginia play afterward, which is also an advantage.  Bet Marshall Sunday. 

15* FSU/Xavier CBB Sunday No-Brainer on Xavier -5.5 

The Xavier Musketeers aren’t getting the same respect that some of these other top seeds are getting.  That is evident here as they are only 5.5-point favorites over Florida State in the Round of 32.  I’ll certainly trust backing the veteran Musketeers over this young Florida State squad every time. 

Xavier is an elite offensive team that just put up 102 points on Texas Southern in their opener.  They are scoring 84.8 points per game this season on 49.3% shooting as a team.  That’s bad news for a Florida State team that has allowed 73 or more points in 18 of its last 20 games overall. 

Leonard Hamilton has been known as a defensive coach in his time at Florida State, but he clearly hasn’t gotten his players to respond on that end this season.  They give up 73.8 points per game on the year.  And they could be without one of their best players in Terrance Mann (12.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg), who suffered a groin injury against Missouri and is very questionable to play Sunday. 

These teams met last year in the NCAA Tournament with Xavier winning 91-66, and I believe we will see a similar result here.  The Musketeers are 24-6-2 ATS in their last 32 NCAA Tournament games.  The Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with Xavier Sunday.