20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Denver/South Dakota State OVER 160.5

Denver is a perfect 14-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last 11 lined games.  This total of 160.5 is too short for a game involving the Pioneers right now.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 82nd in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 361st in adjusted defense.  They are the 5th-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

South Dakota State is a perfect 5-0 OVER in its last five games overall finishing with 159 or more combined points in four of those five games.  That includes 175 combined points with Milwaukee and 170 combined points with Arizona.

The Jackrabbits rank 160th in adjusted offense but just 234th in adjusted defense.  Both teams also rank in the Top 160 in adjusted tempo.  This game figures to be yet another shootout involving the Pioneers tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* CFB Playoff GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami -3

Miami has been an absolute wagon down the stretch with six straight wins with four of those coming by 17 points or more.  The defense has been elite holding opponents to 9.7 points per game in those six games.  That includes their 10-3 road win at Texas A&M in the first round of the 12-team playoff.  The Hurricanes outgained the Aggies 5.7 to 4.3 yards per play in the win.

If everyone though that was a fluke, they proved them wrong again by manhandling Ohio State on both sides of the football in a dominant 24-14 win in the quarterfinals.  They held the Buckeyes to 45 rushing yards on 24 attempts, an average of just 1.9 yards per carry.  

Miami may have the best defensive line in the country.  The Hurricanes rank 5th allowing 84 rushing yards per game and 6th at 2.8 yards per carry.  They are 3rd in the country averaging 3.3 sacks per game.  They had 7 sacks against Texas A&M and 5 sacks against Ohio State.

The Hurricanes rode Mark Fletcher to 172 rushing yards in a windy day in College Station against Texas A&M.  He had 90 rushing yards on 19 carries against Ohio State.  After facing those two defenses and handling them, the Hurricanes actually take a big step down in class here against this suspect Ole Miss defense.

The Rebels rank 38th in total defense at 340.1 yards per game, 41st at 5.2 yards per play, 62nd allowing 146.1 rushing yards per game and 49th allowing 4.2 yards per carry.  Georgia's RB Nate Frazier had 86 rushing yards on 15 carries before leaving with an injury.  That really changed the game and allowed the Rebels to come back in the 2H as they finally got a few stops on Georgia in a 39-34 upset win.

Georgia's weakness was getting after the opposing QB with pressure, and Ole Miss was able to take advantage of it with Trinidad Chambliss making all kinds of plays off script deep down the field.  Those plays won't be there against this Miami defense, which will get home much more than Georgia and Tulane did.  And Miami's defense will be the difference in this game.

Carson Beck will have his best game of the playoffs yet as he takes a big step down in class here against this Ole Miss defense.  Beck hasn't had to do much because the Hurricanes have been so dominant with their defense and running game.  They will control the game again for four quarters with their defense and running game, and Beck will make the plays necessary which he has thus far.  

Ole Miss is dealing with a ton of distractions with coaches spending time game-planning for the playoffs while also recruiting at LSU for Lane Kiffin.  Several of their coaches won't be allowed to coach in this game, and really only offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss is still with the team.  They've had extra time coming into their last two games, but now they are on a short week here after playing last Thursday, while Miami has an extra day of prep playing last Wednesday.  That's a small advantage that could make a big difference in this game.

I also think Ole Miss despite being distracted has benefited from having played Tulane twice AND Georgia twice.  They already had the scouting reports on both teams, which made the game planning much easier.  They have nothing on Miami and only 6 days to get ready for the Hurricanes.  They won't be ready for the physicality the Hurricane brings as they will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Their defense is also great at taking away the quick passing game that Ole Miss relies on.  The Hurricanes are the better, more rested and focused team and it will show on the field in the Fiesta Bowl.  Bet Miami Thursday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Delaware/Sam Houston State OVER 141.5

Sam Houston State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bearkats are 8-3 OVER in all lined games this season.  They have played 14 games overall and have gone for 148 or more combined points in 13 of them, making for a 13-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 141.5-point total.

This total of 141.5 is way too low for a game involving the Bearkats.  They rank 38th in adjusted tempo, 25th in average length of offensive possession and 107th in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home, which is huge in this game with Delaware.

The Blue Hens rank just 350th in adjusted tempo, which is why this total is so low.  But they will be forced to play more to Sam Houston's State's style.  We've seen them play higher-scoring games with other teams like Sam Houston State that push the tempo.  They combined for 153 points with BYU, 155 with Iona and 154 with Northridge.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa State/Baylor OVER 154

Baylor is 8-4 OVER in all games this season including 6-1 OVER at home.  What makes the Bears such a dead nuts OVER team is that they rank 12th in adjusted offense but just 96th in adjusted defense.  They are also 116th in adjusted tempo.

The Bears are averaging 93.1 points per game this season including 102.9 points per game at home and haven't played an OT game all season.  They will get their points, but they will also give up a ton, especially tonight.

Iowa State is playing as fast as they ever have under T.J. Otzelberger and it has made a big difference for them.  They are an elite team, so more possessions is better for them.  They rank 127th in adjusted tempo and 55th in average length of offensive possession.

Iowa State is scoring 89.6 points per game and ranks 5th in adjusted offense.  The Cyclones are 2nd in effective FG percentage (60.7%) and 2nd in 3-point percentage (41.9%).  They will light up this weak Baylor defense tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +2.5

The Brooklyn Nets have quietly gone 8-6 SU in their last 14 games overall seven outright upset victories.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and playing better than most realize.  They should not be home underdogs to the struggling Orlando Magic tonight.

The Magic are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall and coming off a 120-112 upset loss at Washington as 7.5-point favorites last night.  They really miss both Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner as both are two of the most underrated players in the NBA.

Now the Magic are running on fumes playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  Being short-handed makes this spot that much more difficult.  The Nets come in on two days' rest and will be the much fresher team as a result.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* Clippers/Knicks NBA ANNIHILATOR on New York -4.5

I love the spot for the New York Knicks tonight.  They will be max motivated coming off a season high 4-game losing streak and a 31-point loss in Detroit.  This is the perfect time to 'buy low' on the Knicks, who are now healthy outside of Josh Hart.

This is the perfect time to 'sell high' on the Clippers after going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But they played seven of those eight games at home.  They are just 4-13 SU on the road this season.

Derrick Jones Jr. was playing well during this run but got hurt and is now out.  James Harden is dealing with a shoulder injury, and they remain without Bogdan Bogdanovic.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +10.5

Providence has opened Big East play with three straight nail-biting games.  After losing 113-110 (2 OT) at Butler and 72-67 at home to Seton Hall, the Friars got their first conference win in impressive fashion upsetting St. John's 77-71 as 14-point road dogs.

Now the Friars are catching double-digits again at home against the UConn Huskies tonight, and this line is too high.  They are 6-1 SU at home this season and it will be a raucous atmosphere with the Huskies coming to town.

UConn has benefited from an extremely soft Big East schedule to open with home wins over Butler and Marquette, and road wins over DePaul and Xavier.  This will be their toughest conference test yet, and I don't expect them to handle it well.  Bet Providence Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on VCU -1.5

Saint Louis is overvalued after a 13-1 start this season against the 345th-ranked schedule in the country.  The Billikens have played just one true road game all season, and 11 of their 14 games were on their home floor.

I love fading teams to start conference play in road games when they haven't played many or any road games up to this point.  It's a shock to the system, and this will be by far and away their toughest game of the season to this point.

VCU is 11-4 this season against the 205th-ranked schedule.  The Rams went to the wire with Utah State, NC State and New Mexico in those three losses by 3, 6 and 3 points, respectively.  The only game they weren't competitive was against Vanderbilt, which is ranked 6th in KenPom and 14-0 on the season.

The Rams are 8-1 at home this season outscoring opponents by 20.9 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the Atlantic 10.  VCU is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with St. Louis.  Bet VCU Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +6

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 125-115 home loss to the Timberwolves just three days ago on January 3rd.  It was a rare loss for the Heat, who are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes upset road wins in both road games at Detroit by 6 and at Atlanta by 15.

A big reason for their resurgence is a return to health, most notably getting two key role players in Jovic and Larsson back on the court.  Now Tyler Herro is expected back tonight, and the only player they are missing is Jaime Jaquez Jr.

This is a terrible spot for the Timberwolves.  They return home from a 4-game road trip that took a lot out of them.  The Timberwolves will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here, and now Anthony Edwards has been downgraded to questionable due to injury management.  When players are downgraded to questionable, more times than not they do not play.  I like Miami either way.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Pelicans OVER 240

Two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Los Angeles Lakers visit the New Orleans Pelicans.  The Lakers rank 26th in defensive rating while the Pelicans rank 27th.  This figures to be a shootout tonight, and this total has been set too low.

The Lakers beat the Pelicans 133-121 for 254 combined points in their lone meeting this season.  The Pelicans didn't even have Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole in that contest, and both are back healthy now and dead nuts OVER players who are all offense and no defense.  The Lakers didn't have LeBron James, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCF/Oklahoma State OVER 173

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Cowboys rank 7th in adjusted tempo, 30th in average length of offensive possession, 60th in adjusted offense and 95th in adjusted defense.

The Cowboys are 9-5 OVER in all games this season and have yet to play an OT game.  They are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall going for 161 or more combined points in all 10 games, and 170 or more combined points in seven of them.  In their last three games, they went for 182 combined points with Texas Tech, 180 with Bethune-Cookman and 183 with Fullerton.

UCF also likes to play fast ranking 109th in adjusted tempo and 35th in average length of offensive possession.  The Knights are 23rd in adjusted offense but just 88th in adjusted defense.  They won't mind running with Oklahoma State at all in what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the season given the profile of both teams.

In their first meeting last season, the Cowboys won 104-95 at home for 199 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the first meeting of 2026.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bowling Green/Kent State OVER 155.5

Kent State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Golden Flashes rank 20th in adjusted tempo, 44th in average length of offensive possession, 122nd in adjusted offense and just 191st in adjusted defense.  They are 91st in effective FG percentage (53.7%) on offense and 284th (54.1%) on defense.

Bowling Green also likes to play faster ranking 144th in adjusted tempo.  The Mean Green rank 27th in average length of defensive possession at 16.1 seconds allowing opponents to get shots up fast, which is something that will play right into Kent State's hands.

Bowling Green's last three games have been very high-scoring going for 201 combined points with UMass in OT in a game that was tied 86-86 at the end of regulation for 172 combined points.  They went for 176 combined points with Miami Ohio and 191 with Siena Heights.

Kent State is 8-4 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Golden Flashes and their opponents have combined for at least 161 points in 11 of their 14 games this season.  This total of 155.5 is way too low for a game involving Kent State.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +9.5

The Florida Gators are overrated after winning the national title last season.  They lost all their star guards off that team and just aren't nearly as good this season because of it.  They are 9-5 SU & 4-10 ATS this season, consistently laying too many points.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.

Georgia is one of the most underrated teams in the country and vastly improved this season.  The Bulldogs are off to a 13-1 start with their lone loss coming to Clemson in OT.  In their lone road true game this season, they crushed Florida State 107-73.  Florida beat Florida sState 78-76 at home to give these teams a common opponent.

Former Florida head coach Mike White is out to get his former team, and these games tend to go down to the wire.  Four of the last five meetings were decided by 5 points or fewer.  This number is too big tonight as the Bulldogs are lacking the respect they deserve and will earn it tonight.  Bet Georgia Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225.5

The Clippers are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 29th in pace and are never in a hurry.  The Warriors rank 18th in pace and 5th in defensive rating this season.  This game will be played at a snail's pace with some elite defense.

The Clippers will be without Bogdanovic and Jones Jr., and now Harden popped up on the injury report as questionable today.  They will be lacking a lot of firepower without all three of these guys if Harden sits, but I like the UNDER either way.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Warriors and Clippers with 216 or fewer combined points in four of those five meetings.  That includes a 98-79 home win by the Warriors for just 177 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  The only game that went over went to OT.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia 76ers -14.5

This is a terrible spot for the Denver Nuggets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 127-115 loss in Brooklyn last night.  They will also be playing their 6th consecutive road game and their 9th game in 15 days overall.

The Nuggets were already without Nikola Jokic, Cam Johnson and Jonas Valancunas due to injury.  Murray, Braun, Gordon and Hardaway Jr. all played last night against the Nets, and all four will sit tonight.  The means they will be without 7 of their top 8 scorers tonight!

The 76ers are playing their best basketball of the season right now largely due to being as healthy as they have been all year.  Maxey, Embiid, Edecombe, George, Grimes and Barlow are all healthy and playing well.  Nobody has a minutes restriction anymore.

The 76ers have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall winning 139-136 at Memphis, 123-108 at Dallas and 130-119 at New York.  The 76ers have had a lot of time off and will be playing on their 7th game in 16 days.  They will roll the short-handed Nuggets tonight.  Bet the 76ers Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Raptors OVER 233.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 17-9 OVER in their last 26 games overall finishing with 245 or more combined points in 15 of their last 25 games.  It doesn't matter if Trae Young is there or not, they still play fast, efficient offense and poor defense.

The Raptors profile as more of an OVER team right now playing more small ball without C Jakob Poeltl.  They just got RJ Barrett back from injury, and their offense is much more efficient with him running the show.

These teams just played on Saturday with the Raptors beating the Hawks 134-117 for 251 combined points.  We have 17.5 points to spare in the rematch here with this total set at 233.5.  Oddsmakers have once again failed to set this high enough.

The Raptors and Hawks have combined for at least 241 points in six of their last eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore -3

The Baltimore Ravens are the much better team than the Pittsburgh Steelers, period.  Even though they lost the first meeting 27-22 at home a few weeks ago, the Ravens were the better team in that game.  They will be out to prove it this week and win the AFC North, which would be the ultimate revenge.

The Ravens outgained the Steelers 420 to 318, or by 102 total yards, in that 27-22 loss on December 7th.  The refs took a TD off the board, and the Ravens were done in by the refs the entire game to be honest.  They kept driving deep into Pittsburgh territory but got nothing out of it.

Now the Ravens are fully healthy in the rematch and by far the much healthier team coming into this one.  They are coming off a 41-24 road win at Green Bay to keep their hopes alive thanks to 200-plus rushing yards and 4 TD from Derrick Henry.  You can bet they are going to ride Henry into the ground in this game.  They also have extra rest after playing last Saturday night.

Lamar Jackson is back healthy for this one and should be as healthy as he has been in a long time after sitting out last week.  The only starter they are missing on offense is WR Rashod Bateman, but he's replaceable.  They are fully healthy on defense with only CB Marlon Humphrey listed questionable.

The Steelers could not overcome the suspension to DK Metcalf (59 receptions, 850 yards, 6 TD) last week in an ugly 13-6 road loss at Cleveland that cost them clinching the division.  The offense was lost without him and WR Calvin Austin (28 receptions, 317 yards, 2 TD).  Then TE Darnell Washington (31 receptions, 364 yards, 1 TD) got hurt and is now out for the year.  They will get Austin back, but Metcalf is suspended for this game and Washington has been placed on IR.

The Steelers already had one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season even with these guys healthy.  They rank 26th in total offense at 300.4 yards per game.   This is now certainly a Bottom 5 offense in their current start without Metcalf and Washington.  The Steelers also rank 27th in the NFL in total defense at 356.8 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 56.4 yards per game on the season.  They have been winning with smoke and mirrors all season, and their luck finally runs out this week.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* Thunder/Suns NBA ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix +10

The Phoenix Suns will be max motivated for revenge tonight after getting blown out 138-89 by the Thunder in the NBA Cup.  They had only lost 123-119 in OKC in their previous meeting.  Now the Suns get the Thunder at home this time around, where they are 11-5 SU this season.

They also face a very banged up Thunder team with Hartenstein out, plus Joe and Wallace questionable.  It's an overvalued Thunder team with the best record in the NBA.  They are coming off three straight wins against short-handed teams in the Warriors who were without Curry, Butler and Green, a Blazers team that is missing a ton of key players and a Hawks team that was without Young, Johnson and Porzingis.

The Suns are healthy and ready to go tonight.  There's a good chance they get Grayson Allen back for this one, but they have been playing well without him all season either way.  The Suns are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming on the road at Golden State by 3 and at Cleveland.  They beat the Warriors, the Lakers by 24 and the Kings by 27 in their three home games during this stretch.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +11.5

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss to the Suns on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat the Raptors by 21 as 8.5-point home dogs, the Grizzlies by 4 as 8-point home dogs, upset the Bucks as 10.5-point road dogs and crushed the Nets by 20 as 3-point home favorites.

A big reason for their resurgence is the return to health of one of the most underrated young superstars in the game in Alex Sarr (17.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.4 BPG).  They are missing Kyshawn George (15.0 PPG), but they have seven of their top eight scorers healthy and forming a nice chemistry right now.

This is a terrible spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 125-115 win in Miami last night.  The Heat had several players get injured during the game that aided the Timberwolves in the win.

Minnesota is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in its last five games overall with the other win aided by early injuries to Giddey and White of the Bulls as well.  They were upset by 16 by the Nets as 12-point favorites, failing to cover by 28.  They were upset by the Hawks by 24 as 5.5-point favorites, failing to cover by 29.5.  They aren't playing well right now, and they certainly should not be double-digit road favorites over the surging Wizards today.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos -7

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser on the Bengals -1/Broncos -1

I anticipated the Chargers would rest their starters when I released the Broncos -7 Sunday night.  I've done my job and got us on a great line as it is now up to Denver -14.5 as of Saturday night.  I would not hedge back.

Jim Harbaugh announced early in the week that he would sit Justin Herbert.  For one of the most injury-ravaged rosters in the NFL, it was the only move for Harbaugh to make.  Wild card seeding doesn't matter much in the AFC and he knew it.

If some starters do play, they likely will only play for a series or two.  Other starters for sure sitting for the Chargers include RB Omarion Hampton, LT Salyer and LB Perryman plus a lot of backups.  The Chargers will start the embattled Trey Lance for this one.  This will be similar to Denver's 38-0 win over Kansas City in Week 18 last year when the Chiefs rested all of their starters.

Denver cannot afford a letdown.  The Broncos are playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, meaning home-field advantage and a first-round bye.  If they lose and the Patriots win, they would overtake them.  I expect the Broncos to be 'all in' this week knowing they have a bye on deck to rest up and get ready for the playoffs next week.

What a tough ask for Lance making this start against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Broncos rank 4th in scoring defense at 19.2 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 282.1 yards per game, 2nd at 4.9 yards per play and 1st in sacks at 4.0 per game.  The Broncos also have the benefit of extra rest heading into this one after beating the Chiefs last Thursday.

"This is a playoff game," Denver head coach Sean Payton said after Wednesday's practice. "I just finished telling our team, 'Now we have to focus on, what are the strengths of Trey (Lance)?'" Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on Robert Morris/Oakland OVER 161.5

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 40th in adjusted tempo, 65th in adjusted offense and just 307th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Grizzlies are 10-4 OVER in all games this season scoring 82.5 points per game and allowing 84.2 points per game.

Robert Morris has been a solid offensive team this season scoring 77.0 points per game.  The Colonials have been much better on offense than defense, ranking 159th in adjusted offense but just 221st in adjusted defense.  Both teams should get whatever they want offensively in this high-paced shootout with the Golden Grizzlies controlling the tempo at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on LA Tech/WKU OVER 144

This total is way too short for a game involving Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers rank 39th in adjusted tempo and control the tempo playing at home.  They are scoring 84.5 points per game and allowing 78 points per game this season, combining to average 162.5 points per game with their opponents.

The Hilltoppers are coming off a 102-91 home win over Sam Houston State for 193 combined points.  WKU and its opponents have combined for at least 145 points in 12 of its 13 games this season, making for a 12-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 144-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals -7

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser on the Bengals -1/Broncos -1

The Cincinnati Bengals are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS since getting Joe Burrow back.  They upset the Ravens 32-14 and took the Bills to the wire in a 39-34 loss on the road.  After falling flat in the rematch with the Ravens at home, the Bengals have been unstoppable the last two weeks.

They beat Miami 45-21 as 3.5-point road favorites behind 407 total yards.  They followed it up with a 37-14 home win over Arizona as 7-point favorites last week with 429 yards.  They called off the dogs late in both games.  They won't be calling off the dogs against division rival Cleveland this week, and I fully expect them to finish strong.

The Browns played their 'Super Bowl' last week in upsetting the Steelers 13-6 at home.  That was a Steelers team missing several key starters including both starting WR's in DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin.  It's easy to see how they held the Steelers in check.  Their task gets much more difficult this week against the Bengals.

While the Bengals are very healthy with Joe Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Brown all ready to go on offense plus an ever-improving defense that is pretty healthy, the Browns have too many injuries to be competitive this week.  The Bengals are fully healthy on offense and only missing a DE starter on defense.

Rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. has been Cleveland's best weapon and scored their lone TD against the Steelers last week.  Once he departed with a groin injury, the Browns couldn't do anything on offense.  They are also without leading rusher RB Quinshon Judkins and TE David Njoku, plus four starters are out on the offensive line.  Shedeur Sanders will not be able to keep up with Burrow and company.

Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite LB Carson Schwesinger suffered a season-ending injury last week against the Steelers.  This defense hasn't been as good since losing DT Maliek Collins to IR.  They had the best run defense in the NFL with him in the lineup, and they've been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL without him since.

The Browns are 1-4 SU in their last five games despite playing four of those five games at home.  In their lone road game during this stretch, they lost 31-3 at Chicago while being held to just 192 total yards.  This game will play out similarly with the Browns getting burried by Burrow and this high-octane Cincinnati offense.  Cincinnati is 12-0 ATS in the 2nd meeting with Cleveland over the last 12 seasons.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -6.5

I released the Vikings -6.5 Sunday night shortly after the lines came out.  I anticipated the Packers would rest their starters in this game because they were locked into the 7th seed.  The Vikings are currently -10.5 as of this writing Saturday night as they have indeed decided to rest starters, so I have done my job here and will not hedge.

The Packers have two banged up QB's in Jordan Love and Malik Willis, so it was pretty easy to anticipate they would rest those two and start Clayton Tune, one of the worst 3rd-string QB's in the NFL let alone backups.  Tune has completed 15-of-27 passes with 3 INT and no touchdowns while averaging 2.9 yards per attempt and taking 8 sacks.  He has a 21.3 QB rating.

The Vikings got good news when JJ McCarthy was upgraded to starter this week.  That's big because he's a big upgrade over backup Max Brosmer.  The Vikings have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to get to 8-8 on the season.  I love backing teams who are going for a winning record in their final game of the season because it means so much to them to finish with a winning mark rather than a losing record.

The Vikings are really balling out on defense under coordinator Brian Flores, and it's a shame they have wasted what is a Top 5 defense in the NFL.  The Vikings have been playing elite defense for five straight weeks.  They held the Seahawks to 219 total yards, shut out the Commanders 31-0 while allowing 206 total yards, gave up just 143 total yards in a win over the Giants and stymied the Lions last week in a 23-10 win while holding them to 231 yards and forcing six turnovers.

What a tough ask for Clayton Tune to go up against this Brian Flores defense this week.  I would be surprised if the Vikings don't score on defense or special teams in this one, but we're not going to need it because McCarthy and company will do enough on offense to get us the cover.  The Packers couldn't care less about this game, while it's the 'Super Bowl' for the Vikings to finish with a winning record.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Titans/Jaguars OVER 46.5

The Jaguars have one of the best offenses in the NFL since trading for WR Jakobi Myers.  They have scored at least 23 points in nine consecutive games and will hang a big number on this terrible, banged up Tennessee defense this week to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.

The Titans have also played in a lot of shootouts here recently due to that poor defense, plus the offense playing their best football of the season.  The Titans are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall going for 60 or more combined points three times.  They have scored at least 24 points in four consecutive games.

But their defense has been awful, allowing 29 points to Cleveland, 37 to San Francisco and 34 to a bad New Orleans offense last week.  The Saints threw for 320 yards on their terrible secondary to get the 34-26 comeback win.

While the Titans are fully healthy on offense which is a big reason for their improvement on that end, they are missing a ton of starters on defense.  That includes LB Arden Key, SS Amani Hooker, FS Xavier Woods and four more CB's in L'Jarius Sneed, Jaylyn Aarmour-Davis, Kevin Winston Jr. and Marcus Harris.

Trevor Lawrence is as hot as any QB in the NFL down the stretch and will have a field day against this Titans defense.  Lawrence has accounted for 16 TD and only 1 INT in his last five games.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, light winds and no precipitation in Jacksonville Sunday.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Falcons OVER 43.5

The Saints are going more pass-happy trying to win Tyler Shough rookie of the year.  They are also going more pass-happy due to necessity down their top two running backs.  This pass-happy approach has led to some more high-scoring games here recently and this Saints offense is thriving under Shough.

The Saints have scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games.  Shough went 22-of-27 passing for 333 yards and 2 TD in leading the Saints to a 34-26 comeback win in Tennessee.  He threw 49 times for 308 yards and a TD in leading the Saints to 29 points against the Jets the previous week.

The Falcons are thriving on offense as well down the stretch with Kirk Cousins.  They put up 29 points and 476 total yards on the Bucs three weeks ago, 26 points and 342 yards on the Cardinals two weeks ago and 27 points and 345 yards on the Rams last week.  The Falcons are very healthy on offense as Cousins is clicking wtith London and Pitts, and Bijan Robinson is putting up monster numbers to close out the season.

But the Falcons have a ton of concerning injuries especially in the secondary and on the defensive line.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR or out, plus top CB AJ Terrell is questionable.  NT Orhorhoro is questionable, and DE Dorlus is out with injuries suffered last week.

The first meeting between these teams ended 24-10 in favor of the Falcons.  But the Saints missed two FG's and scored a total of 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They basically left 17 points off the board in that game.  I suspect they won't do that again in the rematch.

This is a very low total for a game involving both teams teams right now, especially the Falcons.  The Falcons are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall, and they have combined for 44 or more points with their opponents in nine of their last 10 games overall.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this low 43.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Saints +3.5

The New Orleans Saints have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They continue to play hard here down the stretch and would love to go into next season on a 5-game winning streak.  I think we are getting tremendous value on the Saints +3.5 here.

The Saints are going more pass-happy trying to win Tyler Shough rookie of the year.  They are also going more pass-happy due to necessity down their top two running backs.  This pass-happy approach has led to some more high-scoring games here recently and this Saints offense is thriving under Shough.

The Saints have scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games.  Shough went 22-of-27 passing for 333 yards and 2 TD in leading the Saints to a 34-26 comeback win in Tennessee.  He threw 49 times for 308 yards and a TD in leading the Saints to 29 points against the Jets the previous week.

But what makes the Saints underrated is their defense, which ranks 9th in total defense at 305.5 yards per game and 7th at 5.1 yards per play.  Not many would guess the Saints have a Top 10 defense, but that's the case here.

The Saints ran revenge from a 24-10 home loss to the Falcons in a very fluky result.  the Saints missed two FG's and scored a total of 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They basically left 17 points off the board in that game.  I suspect they won't do that again in the rematch.

I think the Falcons played their 'Super Bowl' on Monday Night Football last week upsetting the short-handed Rams 27-24.  They will now be on a short week, and they are 'fat and happy' and not worried about the result of this Week 18 game.  I think the Saints want it more and are the healthier, more motivated team coming into this one.

London, Mooney and Pitts are all battling injuries and questionable to go for the Falcons this week.  The Falcons have a ton of concerning injuries defensively, especially in the secondary and on the defensive line.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR or out, plus top CB AJ Terrell is questionable.  NT Orhorhoro is questionable, and DE Dorlus is out with injuries suffered last week.

This is a very poor Atlanta defense that has allowed at least 24 points in eight of their last 10 games overall, and they should have allowed 24-plus in that first meeting with the Saints.  I think given all their injuries, the Saints will do whatever they want offensively in this one.

The Saints are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS with Shough as their starting QB.  New Orleans is 18-2 ATS in its last 20 games when going for road revenge, 16-1 ATS in its last 17 revenge games overall, and 9-1 ATS in the 2nd meeting with Atlanta the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* Celtics/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML -120

The Los Angeles Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with all six victories coming by 13 points or more.  That includes wins over playoff contenders in the Lakers by 15, the Rockets by 20 and the Pistons by 13.

The Clippers cannot afford to take a foot off the gas after they got off to such a rough start this season.  I expect them to keep it rolling against the Celtics, who could get the LA flu after staying in Los Angeles overnight after a road win at short-handed Sacramento on Thursday.

It will also be the 5th road game in 9 days for the Celtics as they are a tired team coming into this one.  They have feasted on an easy schedule during this road trip as the first four games came against non-playoff contenders.  This is a big step up in class for them tonight.

The Clippers also want revenge from a 121-118 road loss to the Celtics on November 16th in their first meeting this season.  They didn't even have Kawhi Leonard in that game, and he's playing at an MVP level now scoring at least 28 points in all six games during this six-game winning streak. Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Warriors OVER 238.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for at least 241 points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  This total of 238.5 is too short for a game involving Utah right now.

The Jazz should get back Markkanen and/or George tonight after both sat out last game against the Clippers.  The Warriors should get back Steph Curry tonight after he sat out last night against the Thunder.  Curry is the key to their offense as they are an OVER team with him in the lineup.

The Warriors and Jazz combined for 251 points in their first meeting this season.  They also combined for 259 points in their final meeting last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  This run has coincided with getting Brock Purdy back healthy, and he leads the NFL in QBR (77.6).  Purdy has this San Francisco offense humming with an average of 35.7 points per game during this six-game winning streak.  

He threw 5 TD passes in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis for 75 combined points two weeks ago.  He accounted for 5 more TD's in a 42-38 shootout win over the Bears last week and 80 combined points.  The 49ers are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall going for 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  This total of 47.5 is too short for a game involving the 49ers right now.

The 49ers have a mediocre defense without Warner and Bosa.  They have managed to patch it together, but against the elite offenses of the NFL they have given up a lot of points.  In their last three games, they gave up 24 points to a bad Tennessee offense, 27 points to Philip Rivers and a bad Indy offense, and 38 points to Caleb Williams and the Bears last week.  CB Upton Stout suffered a concussion in that game and likely won't be available this week.

What was amazing about the 49ers hanging 42 points and 496 total yards on the Bears last week was that was a Chicago defense that had been playing better and had been as healthy as they had been for basically all season.  The 49ers also did it without two of their best players on offense in TE George Kittle and LT Trent Williams.  Kittle said he'll be back for this game, and Williams is questionable.  Purdy owns the Seahawks, going 6-1 SU in his career against them.

The Seahawks will get their offense going this week.  They put up 27 points on the Panthers on the road last week, and that followed up a 38-37 shootout win over the Rams at home for 75 combined points.  No question the Seahawks have a solid defense, but they did give up 581 total yards to the Rams, who were without Devante Adams in that game.  The 49ers are nearly as explosive as the Rams.  The Seahawks also lost starting SS Coby Bryant (66 tackles, 4 INT) to injury against Carolina and he will be out for this game.

Seattle is fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Charles Cross, but that won't be an issue against the 49ers, who have the worst pass rush in the NFL since losing Bosa.  The Seahawks get back WR Rashid Shaheed from a concussion suffered in a big game against the Rams.  He had a 31-yard run and a 58-yard punt return TD.  The Seahawks traded for him at the deadline and he is a big playmaker with speed that they need.

A big reason this total was bet down from an opener of 49.5 is because of the forecast, which is calling for rain throughout the game.  But there is supposed to be less than 1/4 of an inch of rain during the game, so I'm not concerned about it at all.  Both offenses are going to get their tonight and whoever is down late is going to keep coming with the NFC West title and No. 1 seed at stake.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin +6.5

No conference has a bigger home-court advantage than the Big Ten.  So getting 6.5 points with Wisconsin at home tonight is a tremendous value even though on paper Purdue is clearly the better team.

But this is a night game so it will be a raucous home atmosphere in favor of the Badgers, who are 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 24.0 points per game at home this season.  That includes recent wins over Marquette by 20 and Northwestern by 12.

Purdue will be playing just its 3rd true road game of the season here.  The first two came at Rutgers and at Alabama, and I think this will be their toughest test yet.  They have a recent common opponent in Marquette, who the Boilermakers also beat by 20 at home.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawks/Raptors OVER 232.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 16-9 OVER in their last 25 games overall finishing with 245 or more combined points in 14 of their last 24 games.  It doesn't matter if Trae Young is there or not, they still play fast, efficient offense and poor defense.

I think this total has been set lower than it should be due to the Hawks coming off a low-scoring game against the Knicks last night.  But the Knicks didn't have Towns and were lost offensively without him.  The Knicks shot 9-of-42 (21%) from 3 and 37% from the field without him.

The Raptors profile as more of an OVER team right now playing more small ball without C Jakob Poeltl.  They just got RJ Barrett back from injury, and their offense is much more efficient with him running the show.

This total has also been set too low due to the Raptors coming off a pair of unders against the Nuggets and Magic.  But the Nuggets were without four starters including Jokic, while the Magic were without two starters in Wagner and Suggs.

The Hawks and Raptors have combined for at least 241 points in five of their last seven meetings.  This total of 232.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big West PLAY OF THE DAY on UC-Irvine/CS-Fullerton OVER 160.5

Cal State Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Titans rank 2nd in adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession.  They also rank just 247th in adjusted defense.  The Titans will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

Fullerton is 9-4 OVER in all games this season scoring 88.2 points per game and allowing 86.9 points per game, averaging 175.1 combined points per game and haven't gone to OT once this season.  Fullerton and its opponents have combined for at least 173 points in five consecutive games coming in.  This total of 160.5 is too short for a game involving the Titans.

UC-Irvine is 3-0 OVER in its last three games coming in.  The Anteaters have scored at least 81 points in three of their last five games, and I fully expect them to top 80 points tonight as they will be more than happy to run with Fullerton in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat +2.5

The Miami Heat have gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset the Hawks by 15 as 3-point road dogs and the Pistons by 6 as 4.5-point road dogs, while also blowing out the Nuggets by 24 as 1.5-point home dogs and the Pacers by 26 as 6.5-point home favorites.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are struggling right now going 1-3 SU in their last four games overall.  That includes a 16-point home loss to the Nets as 12-point favorites.  Their only win came against the Bulls, where both Giddey and White got hurt early in the game and the Bulls had no chance without them.  The Timberwolves are coming off a 126-102 road loss to the Hawks as 6-point favorites.

The Heat are 12-5 SU at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the NBA.  They have the bigs in Adebayo and Ware who can match up with the Timberwolves' trio of Gobert, Reid and Randle.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

20* Panthers/Bucs NFC South No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3

It's easy to see there's value on the Bucs -3 in Week 18.  They were 3-point road favorites at Carolina in their first meeting just two weeks ago, and now they are only 3-point home favorites in the rematch.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Bucs this week.

They are 1-7 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall so bettors want nothing to do with them.  That's the time you want to back a team when everyone is off of them.  The Bucs have lost four straight coin flip games all by 4 points or fewer.  They outgained three of their four opponents, so they were the better team in the stats but came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard.

What I like about the Bucs is that they are about as healthy as they have been all season right now.  Baker Mayfield gets LT Triston Wirfs back this week after he sat out last week, and this offense is fully healthy and capable of hanging a big number on Carolina.  The Bucs are also pretty healthy on defense and will activate their best pass rusher in Calijah Kancey from IR this week.  They are really only missing a couple guys in the secondary now.

I don't think this young Panthers team is ready for this moment to go on the road and dethrone the Bucs, who have owned this division and come up clutch late in the season year after year.  I think they have one more clutch game in them to keep their hopes alive for winning the NFC South.

Of course, the Falcons could beat the Saints on Sunday and ruin that, but the Bucs know they have to handle their business first on Saturday for it to even matter.  The Panthers have the luxury of knowing they can lose this game and still win the division if Atlanta beat New Orleans as a 3.5-point home favorite on Sunday.  The Bucs are in true 'must win' mode, while the Panthers are now.

The Panthers had a chance to clinch the division last week and fell flat on their faces in a 27-10 home loss to the Seahawks.  Their offense was held to 139 total yards by Seattle in a game that was every bit as big of a blowout as the final score showed even though it was close for a while.  This Carolina offense has averaged just 231.7 yards per game in its last three games and is broken.

The Panthers won't get back RG Robert Hunt this week, one of their best offensive linemen.  They also lost starting TE Ja'Tavion Sanders to the IR with an injury suffered last week.  Defensively, they will be without two starting LB's in Claudin Cherelus and Trevin Wallace, plus they have some cluster injuries in the secondary.  DE Tershawn Wharton is questionable as well.

Baker Mayfield is 5-1 SU in his career against the Panthers including 3-0 SU at home.  Bryce Young is 4-9 SU when facing an opponent the Panthers beat in their previous meeting.  Mayfield and the Bucs will be ready for the moment today while Young and the Panthers will not.  Bet the Bucs Saturday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Akron/Miami Ohio OVER 174

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team going 8-3 OVER in all games this season.  The Zips rank 30th in adjusted tempo, 19th in average length of offensive possession, 12th in adjusted offense and just 208th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 97.1 points per game this season.

Miami Ohio is also a dead nuts OVER team going 9-2 OVER in all games this season.  The Redhawks rank 43rd in adjusted tempo, 59th in average length of offensive possession, 73rd in adjusted offense and just 174th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 94.9 points per game this season.

This game will be played at a break-neck pace and will feature elite offense and poor defense on both ends.  The Redhawks rank 8th in effective FG percentage (60%) and 6th in 3-point shooting (41%).  The Zips rank 5th in effective FG percentage (60.8%) and 7th in 3-point percentage (40.6%).  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on UNC/SMU OVER 156.5

SMU is a dead nuts OVER team going 8-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Mustangs and their opponents have combined for at least 157 or more combined points in 12 of their 13 games this season.  This total of 156.5 is very short for a game involving the Mustangs.

UNC just got G Seth Trimble (15.6 PPG) back from injury and he has only played in five games all season.  Trimble is one of the fastest guards in the country and gets the fast break going for the Tar Heels.  They have been a slow plodding team without him, but with him their offense has flourished.

The Mustangs rank 122nd in adjusted tempo, 25th in average length of offensive possession and 27th in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home today, and I expect both teams to reach 80 points in this one.  UNC is scoring 81.2 PPG while SMU is scoring 91.1 PPG this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on SMU ML -105

SMU is 9-0 SU at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Mustangs are outscoring opponents by 22.4 points per game at home this season.

UNC will be playing just its 2nd true road game of the season.  I like fading teams who have played zero or one true road game at the time conference play starts because they aren't used to it, and it's a shock to the system dealing with a hostile road crowd like this one will be.  Bet SMU on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -12.5

This is a terrible spot for the short-handed Sacramento Kings playing without their two best players in Sabonis and LaVine.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 120-106 home loss to the Boston Celtics last night.

The Kings are really struggling, going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their three games overall with blowout losses to the Lakers by 24, the Clippers by 41 and the Celtics by 14.  They will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days tonight, so they will have nothing left in the tank for the Suns.

Phoenix had yesterday off and will be motivated to bounce back from a road loss to Cleveland.  That ended a 4-game winning streak for them and a 6-game ATS winning streak.  This is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They should get Grayson Allen back tonight as he was at shootaround, so the only player they are missing is Jalen Green, who they have been without for basically the entire season.  Bet the Suns Friday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska -2

Nebraska is off to a 13-0 start this season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Huskers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and that will be on display tonight as they host Michigan State in their Big Ten home opener.

The Huskers have won 17 straight games dating back to the NIT last season.  They went on the road and upset Illinois 83-80 as 9-point dogs which followed up their 90-60 home win over Wisconsin as 2.5-point favorites to move to 2-0 in Big Ten play.

Michigan State has only played one true road game all season, and it was a lackluster 76-72 road win at Penn State as 12.5-point favorites.  The Spartans will be in over their heads here in what will be their toughest test of the season.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hornets/Bucks OVER 231.5

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy and running the offense.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time with Ball, Bridgers, Miller and Kneuppel all expected to go tonight.  These four all average at least 19.3 points per game and are developing a nice chemistry.  They are without their most important defender in C Ryan Kalkbrenner (1.8 BPG) right now so they have to play more small ball.

The Bucks are certainly more of an OVER team with Giannis (28.9 PPG) back and healthy.  They just beat the Hornets 123-103 for 236 combined points in his return to the lineup two games ago.  The Hornets went on to go for 257 combined points with the Warriors in their next game.  It should be more of the same tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Hawks/Knicks NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 245.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 16-8 OVER in their last 24 games overall finishing with 245 or more combined points in 14 of their last 23 games.  It doesn't matter if Trae Young is there or not, they still play fast, efficient offense.  Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis just returned to the lineup, too.

The Knicks are 4-0 OVER in their last four games and 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games.  They just went for 266 combined points with the Spurs, 255 with the Pelicans, 253 with the Hawks and 250 with the Cavs in their last four games coming in.  This total of 245.5 is pretty short for a game involving these two teams right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Pacers OVER 237.5

The Spurs are more of an OVER team without Victor Wembenyama, their best defender and probably the best defender in the NBA.  They have to play more small ball without him and they also play faster not trying to involve him on offense.

The Spurs went 6-1 OVER in their seven games without Wembenyama leading into the NBA Cup semifinals.  They went for 237 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They lost Wembenyama to injury in the 1H against the Knicks last time out, and came from way behind to beat the Knicks 134-132 for 234.5 combined points.

The Pacers are getting healthier and playing faster, more efficient offense as a result.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 245 points with Houston, 258 with Miami and 262 with Boston.  Nesmith and McConnell are back healthy to join Siakim, Mathurin and Nembhard as the Pacers are now putting a respectable offensive team on the floor.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington Wizards ML +100

This is a terrible spot for the struggling, banged up Brooklyn Nets.  They are coming off consecutive blowout home losses to the Rockets by 26 and the Warriors by 13.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after that loss to the Rockets last night, and they will be short-handed tonight.

The Nets will be without their top three scorers in Michael Porter Jr. (25.8 PPG), Cam Thomas (21.4 PPG) and Nicolas Claxton (13.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.2 APG).  I give them no shot of keeping this game competitive with the Washington Wizards without these guys.

The Wizards have quietly gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss to the Suns on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat the Raptors by 21 as 8.5-point home dogs, the Grizzlies by 4 as 8-point home dogs and upset the Bucks as 10.5-point road dogs.

A big reason for their resurgence is the return to health of one of the most underrated young superstars in the game in Alex Sarr (17.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.3 BPG).  They are missing Kyshawn George (15.0 PPG), but they have seven of their top eight scorers healthy and forming a nice chemistry right now.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Sam Houston/WKU OVER 165.5

Sam Houston State is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-2 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Bearkats and their opponents have combined for at least 162 points in seven of those nine games.

What makes them an OVER team is ranking 36th in adjusted tempo and 30th in average length of offensive possession.  They are a solid offensive team ranking 98th in adjusted offense and 85th in 3-point percentage.

Western Kentucky also profiles as an OVER team and will gladly run with the Bearkats.  The Hilltoppers rank 42nd in adjusted tempo and 70th in average length of offensive possession.  They will attack the rim, and Sam Houston ranks 333rd in 2-point percentage defense at 58.2%.  WKU ranks 293rd in defending the 3, and the Bearkats want to shoot a ton of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Navy/Cincinnati Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Navy -4

For starters, Service Academies like Navy are 19-3 SU & 19-3 ATS in their last 22 bowl games.  These service academies never have any players opt out and they always show up with their best effort in these bowl games.  That will be no different for Navy in the Liberty Bowl today.

The Bearcats don't want to be here.  They lost four straight games to close out the season when they were in contention for a Big 12 title.  They have had at least a dozen players opt out of this bowl game, most notably QB Brendan Sorsby, who is listed by 247Sports as the top-ranked QB in the transfer portal.

Sorsby is completing 61.5% of his passes for 2,786 yards with a 26-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 580 yards and 9 TD as one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  It's a major blow as now the Bearcats are down to four-year senior Brady Lichtenberg who has 333 career passing yards and freshman Samaj Jones, who has just 2 pass attempts this season.

The losses are huge on defense, where almost the entire secondary is following CB coach Eddie Hicks to Arkansas.  The Bearcats will be without S Christian Harrison (66 taclkes, 1 INT), S Trevon Gola-Collard (71 tackles, 3 PD), S Jiquan Sanks (50 tackles, 4 PD), CB Logan Wilson (35 taclkles, 6 PD), DE Mikah Coleman (33 tackles), CB Ormaine Arnold (16 tackles, 3 PD), S Tayden Barnes (25 tackles) and a couple other depth pieces.  DE Dontay Corleone has declared for the NFL Draft.

The weakness of this Cincinnati defense is against the run where they allow 173.5 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  The Bearcats allowed 228 or more rushing yards in four of their final six games.  That's bad news for them going up against this potent Navy triple-option, which ranks 1st in the country at 289.3 rushing yards per game and 4th at 5.8 per carry.

Navy Senior QB Blake Horvath wants to finish his career strong as arguably the best QB in program history.  He has rushed for 1,147 yards and 15 TD, but he's the best passer they have ever had completing 61.1% of his passes for 1,472 yards and 10 TD this season.  He will have a huge game as the Midshipmen run away with this one.  Bet Navy Friday.

25* CFB Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas State -14

Texas State fought hard down the stretch to make a bowl game after a 3-6 start.  They went 3-0 in their final three games with blowout wins over Southern Miss 41-14, LA-Monroe 31-14 and South Alabama 49-26.  Now they will be extra motivated to finish it off with a winning record.

Texas State is arguably the best 6-6 team in the country when you look at the numbers.  The Bobcats went 1-4 in games decided by 7 points or fewer, so they were very close to being a 10-2 team.  Their only two blowout losses came to Arizona State and James Madison, one of the best teams in the Big 12 plus a playoff team.

Texas State averages 476.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense while allowing 399.4 yards per game and 5.7 per play on defense.  The Bobcats are outgaining opponents by 77 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play, which is the sign of a team that is much better than 6-6.

I'll gladly lay the big number here with the Bobcats because they have an elite, up-tempo offense and will keep pouring on the points for four quarters.  They rank 12th in scoring offense at 36.1 points per game, 8th in total offense at 476.3 yards per game and 16th at 6.7 per play.  They don't have anyone significant in the transfer portal.

Rice only got an invite to this bowl game with a 5-7 record because other teams opted out.  I don't think the Owls even want to be here.  The Owls started 3-1 but dropped six of their final eight games, including blowout losses to North Texas 56-24 and South Florida 52-3 in their final two games.

QB Chase Jenkins hit the transfer portal, a player this putrid Rice offense could not afford to be without.  He threw for 1,025 yards with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 531 yards and five scores.  His dual-threat ability was the only thing saving this offense.  Even with Jenkins, the Owls ranks 112th in scoring offense at 19.8 points per game, 108th in total offense at 311.2 yards per game and 130th at 4.6 yards per play.  They have no chance to keep up with Texas State in this one.

Making matters worse for the offense is they will be without second-leading receiver Drayden Dickmann (37 receptions, 323 yards, 3 TD) and RB Daelen Alexander (392 yards, 3 TD).  The Owls also lost to UTSA by 48 and Memphis by 24 down the stretch.  They allowed 34 or more points in five of their final six games.  They are prone to getting blown out, and they will get blown out by a better, more motivated Bobcats team today.  Bet Texas State Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Jazz/Clippers OVER 232

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for at least 241 points in nine consecutive games overall.  This total of 232 is too short for a game involving Utah right now.

The Clippers have really upped the tempo during their 5-game winning streak and are thriving offensively right now.  They will certainly stay hot here against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and hang a big number to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 236 or more combined points in all four.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UCSB/Fullerton OVER 157.5

Cal State Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Titans rank 4th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession.  They also rank just 258th in adjusted defense.  The Titans will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

Fullerton is 8-4 OVER in all games this season scoring 87.7 points per game and allowing 87.1 points per game, averaging 174.8 combined points per game and haven't gone to OT once this season.  Fullerton and its opponents have combined for at least 173 points in four consecutive games coming in.  This total of 157.5 is too short for a game involving the Titans.

UCSB is an elite offensive team ranking 88th in adjusted offense, 81st in effective FG percentage and 22nd in 3-point percentage.  The Gauchos are a terrible defensive team, ranking 250th in adjusted defense, 276th in effective FG percentage D and 353rd in 3-point percentage.  This game really sets up for a shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Murray State/Illinois-Chicago OVER 159.5

Murray State is a dead nuts OVER team this season going 9-5 OVER in all games with 162 or more combined points in 10 of their 14 games this season.  They haven't played a single OT game, either.  This total of 159.5 is too short for a game involving the Racers.

Racers they are, indeed.  They rank 24th in adjusted tempo and 63rd in average length of offensive possession.  They are 63rd in adjusted offense, 34th in effective FG percentage and 43rd in 3-point percentage.  But they are just 165th in adjusted defense.

Illinois-Chicago has been better on offense (190th) than defense (216th) this season.  They went for 162 combined points with Detroit, 170 with High Point, 162 with Robert Morris and 171 with Belmont, a team that profiles similarly to Murray State.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Mavs OVER 229.5

The Dallas Mavericks are a sneaky OVER team this season.  They rank 6th in pace and most don't realize how much faster they are playing this season.  They are also going more small ball, and having Anthony Davis back healthy really makes them flourish offensively.

The Mavericks are 11-3-1 OVER in their last 15 games overall going for 230 or more combined points in 10 of their last 11 games overall, making for a 10-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 229.5-point total.  This total of 229.5 is too short for a game involving the Mavericks right now.

The 76ers are as healthy as they have been all season and it is really making a difference for them offensively.  They are coming off a 139-136 (OT) win over the Grizzlies in a game that was tied 128-128 at the end of regulation for 256 combined points.  They have Maxey, George, Embiid, Edgecombe, Grimes and Barlow all healthy right now and playing.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 234 or more combined points in all three.  That includes a 121-114 win by the 76ers for 235 combined points in their first meeting this season on December 20th a couple weeks ago.  The Mavs shot 17% from 3 and the 76ers shot 30% from 3, so both teams shot poorly meaning there's a lot of room for improvement in the shooting department in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Ole Miss/Georgia Sugar Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Georgia -6

This will be a rematch from a 43-35 home win by Georgia over Ole Miss on October 18th.  Georgia didn't punt once, outgained Ole Miss 510 to 351, or by 159 total yards, and made the 2H adjustments which they have been doing all season to stymie the Ole Miss offense.  Now having seen that offense and with extra prep time, I fully expect Kirby Smart to come up with the proper game plan to slow it down again in the rematch.

That 2H performance against Ole Miss propelled Georgia to a big finish to the season.  Gunnar Stockton went 26-of-31 passing for 289 yards and 4 TD, while also rushing for 59 yards and a score in the win.  And while I trust Stockton and this offense to have another big game in the rematch, it's the improvement of this Georgia defense that has me really high on this team in this matchup.

The Bulldogs have allowed a total of just 70 points in six games since beating Ole Miss, an average of just 11.7 points per game.  They held Texas to 10 points, Charlotte to 3, Georgia Tech to 9 and Alabama to 7 in their last four games coming in.  You could argue the Bulldogs are playing as well as anyone in the country defensively right now.

While Ole Miss has one of the best offenses in the country, the Rebels have a suspect defense that won't allow them to compete for four quarters with Georgia.  They rank 40th in total defense at 43rd at 5.3 yards per play allowed.  They are 64th in rushing defense allowing 147.8 yards per game and 70th at 4.3 yards per carry allowed.  Georgia will get whatever it wants offensively, again.

Ole Miss was able to handle Tulane 41-10 at home in the playoff opener.  But that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  Ole Miss allowed 421 total yards to Tulane and only outgained them by 76 yards for the game.  The Rebels were fine without head coach Lane Kiffin for that game, but I don't trust their staff in key moments in this game against Georgia.

Many of the coaches on this staff will be joining Kiffin at LSU once this season is over.  They have been going back and forth between Ole Miss and LSU with one foot out the door.  That can only be a distraction.  Plus, new head coach Pete Golding hasn't been in this position before and will be making some tough decisions against Georgia that I just don't know if he's ready for.  I know Kirby Smart will be ready for it.  Bet Georgia Thursday.

15* Alabama/Indiana Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7

If Alabama had the stats Indiana has and vice versa, Alabama would be a double-digit favorite over Indiana.  But because of their names on their jerseys and the failure for most to believe what Indiana is doing, we are getting the Hoosiers at a discount as only 7-point favorites over the Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl.

Indiana proved itself worthy going on the road and beating Oregon by 10 and upsetting Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship on a neutral.  The Hoosiers have elite numbers, averaging 7.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.5 yards per play.

Alabama has weak numbers averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.  And the Crimson Tide have gotten worse as the season has gone on when you dive into the numbers.

In their last five games, the Crimson Tide lost outright at home to Oklahoma before a cruising win over Eastern Illinois.  They were fortunate to beat Auburn, getting outgained 411 to 280 by the Tigers, or by 131 total yards.  They then lost 28-7 to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.  And although they beat Oklahoma 34-24 on the road in the rematch, it was the most misleading final of the first round.  They were outgained 362 to 260 by the Sooners, or by 102 yards.  They benefited from a pick-6 and two missed FG's by Oklahoma.

The most shocking stat about Alabama that gives them no chance here is rushing for 80 or fewer yards in five of their last seven games.  They were held to -3 rushing yards by Georgia and 28 rushing yards on 25 carries by Oklahoma in their last two games.  They cannot run the football, and being one-dimensional doesn't work against Indiana.  WR Ryan Williams has been a non-factor for Alabama, too.  

It's supposed to rain throughout the Rose Bowl, and not being able to run the ball will be a huge disadvantage for the Crimson Tide.  Indiana has tremendous balance ranking 11th in rushing at 221.2 yards per game and 46th in passing at 251.6 yards per game.  You can run on this Alabama defense, which ranks 27th at 120.6 rushing yards per game allowed.  You cannot run on this Indiana defense, which ranks 3rd allowing 77.6 rushing yards per game and just held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards in the Big Ten Championship Game.  They also held Oregon to 81 rushing yards on 30 carries, which were the two best rushing attacks they faced all season.  Bet Indiana Thursday.

20* Oregon/Texas Tech Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Texas Tech +2.5

Texas Tech has been disrespected all season.  The Red Raiders are 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS this season as one of the most underrated teams in college football.  They continue to lack the respect they deserve as underdogs to Oregon in the Cotton Bowl.

The Red Raiders made the most out of their massive NIL fund and have some of the best talent in the country, which is why this is no fluke.  In particular, their defense is a juggernaut.  The Red Raiders rank 3rd in scoring defense at 10.9 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 254.4 yards per game and 3rd at 4.0 yards per play.

What I really like about this matchup against Oregon is the Red Raiders rank 1st in rushing yards per game allowed at 68.5 and 1st at 2.3 yards per rush allowed.  The Ducks need to be able to run the football to be successful, and the Red Raiders are going to shut down their running game and make Dante Moore try and beat them through the air.  They did the same thing in consecutive blowout wins against BYU, shutting down their running game and Bear Bachmeir couldn't beat them through the air.

I also think the ceiling for this Texas Tech offense is even higher than what we've seen all season simply because QB Behren Morton wasn't healthy, playing with a hairline fracture in his fibula.  He was in a walking boot most the season and only got in one practice each week in every game he started.  And in the only game they lost, Will Hammond was the QB against Arizona State, and the Sun Devils needed a lot of good fortune to beat them late in that game.

The 26-day layoff since the Big 12 Championship Game has done wonders for Morton.  He is out of his walking boot for the first time since suffering the injury.  "This whole bowl prep has been really good for me," Morton said. "I've been basically a hundred percent in practice as far as team reps. I haven't been able to do team reps really all season long. ... Just getting the body back to playing football again -- it's been a while since I've gotten to do that."

"Staying in a boot the whole entire week, not getting to practice, then taking the boot off on Saturday and getting to play, it was not fun at all," said Morton, who said coach Joey McGuire granted him one day of practice prior to the Big 12 title game against BYU.

The Ducks lost both coordinators to coaching jobs which is a distraction in bowl prep.  Dan Lanning has yet to win a big game and time and time again comes up short in key moments of close games.  He is a great recruiter and motivator, but he hasn't proven himself as a great game manager yet.

Against the four best defenses Oregon faced this season in Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and Wisconsin, the Ducks were held to an average of 20 points per game, 300 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.  Their offense can be stopped, and their defense certainly isn't as good as Texas Tech.  That was evident when they allowed 509 total yards to James Madison in their 51-34 home win in the first round of the college football playoff.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

20* Miami/Ohio State Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Miami +9.5

Ohio State is getting too much respect for winning the national title last season.  It's very hard to go back-to-back, and we saw chinks in their armor in a loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us here is asking too much as this is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate.

Miami has been an absolute wagon down the stretch with five straight wins with four of those coming by 17 points or more.  The defense has been elite holding opponents to 8.8 points per game in those five games.  That includes their 10-3 road win at Texas A&M in the first round of the 12-team playoff.  The Hurricanes outgained the Aggies 5.7 to 4.3 yards per play in the win.

Ohio State benefited from a very easy schedule.  In their two biggest step up games against Texas and Indiana, they were outgained 376 to 203 by the Longhorns, or by 173 total yards.  They were also outgained 342 to 324 by the Hoosers, or by 18 yards.  They were held to 58 rushing yards on 26 carries by Indiana.

Miami may have the best defensive line in the country and can shut down that Ohio State rushing attack as well.  The Hurricanes rank 7th allowing 87 rushing yards per game and 9th at 2.9 yards per carry.  They are 6th in the country averaging 3.2 sacks per game, and they will get after the overrated Julian Sayin, who did not perform well in those Texas and Indiana games.

The Hurricanes rode Mark Fletcher to 172 rushing yards in a windy day in College Station against Texas A&M.  They will get him going again, and the conditions will be much more favorable for QB Carson Beck indoors to have a better game here.  I trust his experience and trust him to make the right plays against this vaunted Ohio State defense to keep the Hurricanes in this game for four quarters.

The total has been set around 40 for this game so it is expected to be a defensive battle.  Getting 9.5 points in a game with such a low total is a tremendous value.  I think this game is much closer than the odds suggest, and it would take a couple catastrophic mistakes from Miami to get blown out here.  Player for player, the Hurricanes are one of the few teams in the country that has the talent to match the Buckeyes.  Bet Miami Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans PK

The Chicago Bulls just lost their two most important players to injury in a 136-101 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last time out.  Josh Giddey (19.2 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 9.0 APG) and Coby White (19.2 PPG, 4.7 APG) both left the game with injuries.  Giddey is going to miss at least two weeks, while White is out for at least this game.

The Bulls just aren't going to be able to produce much offensive without their two most important offensive players.  They certainly won't be able to hang with the Pelicans, who have quietly put together an elite offense in recent weeks and are very healthy right now.

I love the spot for the Pelicans, too.  They are coming off four consecutive losses against three of the best teams in the NBA in the Cavs, Suns (twice) and Knicks.  This is a big step down in class for them, and they went 5-0 SU in their previous five games prior to this skid, including a 114-104 win in Chicago.  

That win over the Bulls improved New Orleans to 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Chicago.  The Pelicans are motivated to get back on track, while the Bulls are down in the dumps right now realizing their season is in jeopardy without their two best players.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UMKC/Denver OVER 157.5

Denver is a perfect 12-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last nine lined games.  This total of 157.5 is too short for a game involving the Pioneers right now.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 98th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 360th in adjusted defense.  They are the 6th-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

UMKC lights to push the pace ranking 91st in adjusted tempo which will help us cash this OVER ticket.  The Roos have gone for 177, 156, 170 and 169 combined points in their last four games coming into this one.  This has shootout written all over it today folks.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Hawks OVER 242.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 16-7 OVER in their last 23 games overall finishing with 245 or more combined points in 14 of their last 22 games.  This total of 242.5 is too short for a game involving the Hawks right now.

The Hawks just went for 269 combined points with the Thunder last time out despite playing without Trae Young, Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis, who are all dead nuts OVER players for them.  Now Johnson and Porzingis return to the lineup today, and Young is questionable.

The Timberwolves are rolling offensively scoring 136 points against the Bulls and 138 against the Nuggets in two of their last three games.  They will have no problem getting in a shootout with the Hawks today.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Michigan/Texas Citrus Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +7.5

This is more of a fade of Texas than it is a play on Michigan.  The Longhorns made the 12-team playoff semifinals each of the last two seasons.  They felt slighted that they didn't get in this season, and I just don't think they care at all about the Citrus Bowl.

That's evident by the alarming amount of opt-outs and transfers the Longhorns have leading into this bowl game.  They will be without seven of their top 11 defenders in terms of snap count.  They will be without S Michael Taaffe (70 tackles, 2 INT), LB Liona Lefau (68 tackles), CB Malik Muhammad (30 tackles, 2 INT), CB Jaylon Guilbeau (40 tackles, 1 INT), LB Anthony Hill (70 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INT), EDGE Trey Moore (34 tackles, 3 sacks) and EDGE Ethan Burke (40 tackles, 3 sacks) and S Derek Williams Jr. (23 tackles).  That also means they will be without eight of their top 13 tacklers.

Offensively, the Longhorns will be without their top three RB's, OL Connor Stroh and WR DeAndre Moore (38 receptions, 532 yards, 4 TD).  Texas fired defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski as well.  The Longhorns are a mess heading into this bowl game, and they shouldn't be favored by more than a TD against a Michigan team that will have almost all hands on deck.

Interim head coach Biff Poggi has done a great job of keeping this team together amidst the Sherrone Moore scandal.  Head head coach Kyle Whittingham was able to convince most of these players to stay, including 5-star QB Byrce Underwood, who will play in the Citrus Bowl.  In fact, the Wolverines are only expected to be without 3 starters in EDGE Derrick Moore, LB Jaishawn Barham and LG Giovanni El-Hadi as all three prepare for the NFL Draft.  Everyone made the trip to Orlando except the three opt-outs and expect a very full roster.

Poggi went 2-0 as head coach taking over for a suspended Moore this season.  The players love him and will play hard for him, and motivation is everything in bowl games.  "I was kind of stunned for a while," Wolverines linebacker Cole Sullivan said. "I didn't know what to think. But at the end of the day, we're still the same team. One person doesn't define who we are. I'm not going to let what happened define me. And I know the rest of the team isn't also going to let that happen."

The Big Ten is 6-1 SU against the SEC over the last two seasons in bowl games.  I think the Big Ten takes more pride in these head-to-head matchups because everyone around the country claims the SEC is better.  They take it personal, and Michigan will take pride in trying to knock off Texas in the Citrus Bowl as well.  Bet Michigan Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Hornets OVER 232.5

Steph Curry is back healthy for the Warriors and La'Melo Ball is back healthy for the Hornets.  Both are dead nuts OVER players as both their offenses run much faster and much more efficiently with them in the lineup.  This total of 232.5 is too short today.

The Warriors are 2-0-1 OVER in their last three games overall.  They went for 242 combined points with the Mavericks and 244 with the Raptors at the end of regulation.  The Hornets and their opponents have gone for at least 235 combined points in three of their last four games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Iowa/Vanderbilt NYE Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are like a service academy.  They are always going to show up in bowl games with basically all hands on deck and minimal opt outs.  That's the kind of program they run at Iowa, and that's the kind of team you want to back in bowl season.  They have zero opt outs this season with all hands on deck.

“They love playing together, and they couldn't imagine being out there without the guy next to him, and it's such a unbelievable bond," offensive coordinator Tim Lester said of his Hawkeyes team.

"It's what football's supposed to be like. And I don't even think it crossed anyone's mind. We’re all going out there, we're going to go out there and play together. That's the program that coach (Ferentz) runs. And it's awesome to be a part of.”

Iowa may be the best 8-4 team in the country.  The Hawkeyes' four losses this season all came by 5 points or fewer and to Top 20 teams at the time they played them.  They were actually tied or leading in the 4th quarter of all four of those losses, too.  That includes a 5-point loss to Indiana and a 2-point loss to Oregon, two playoff teams with a legit shot to win the national title.

I question Vanderbilt's motivation for this bowl game after the Commodores thought they'd have a shot at winning a national title, too.  Instead, they were left out of the 12-team playoff despite a 10-2 record in what is perceived as the best conference in football in the SEC.  If Alabama or Georgia were 10-2 with the same schedule, they would have gotten in.  But because they are lowly Vanderbilt, they did not get in.

I know the Commodores have very few opt outs, but the one they do have is a big one.  TE Eli Stowers (61 receptions, 765 yards, 4 TD) won the Mackey Award as the nation's best tight end.  He is by far Diego Pavia's favorite target.  Speaking of Pavia, he finished 2nd in Heisman voting and complained about voters afterwards.  I think his own team is getting tired of his act.  The Hawkeyes have extra motivation to get after him and shut him up as well.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Iowa Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara/Portland OVER 155.5

Santa Clara is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall going for 158 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The only team they didn't go for at least 158 with was North Texas, which is a dead nuts under team ranking 335th in tempo, 268th in offense and 45th in defense.

What makes Santa Clara an OVER team is ranking 104th in tempo, 59th in offense and 67th in 3-point rate.  They are also a very good passing team ranking 28th in assist rate.

Portland ranks 69th in adjusted tempo and will push the pace at home.  The Pilots are also a good passing team ranking 22nd in assist rate.  This game will features some great offense and poor defense and this total of 155.5 is too short as a result.  

Portland is 6-3 OVER in its last nine games.  The Pilots and their opponents have combined for at least 163 points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  This total of 155.5 is too short for a game involving the Pilots, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Jazz OVER 240

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They are especially an OVER team at home where they dictate pace and force opponents to run with them.

The Jazz are 14-4 OVER in all home games this season averaging 256.2 combined points per game with their opponents.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for at least 241 points in eight consecutive games overall.  This total of 240 is too short for a game involving Utah.

The Boston Celtics are one of the most 3-point-happy teams in the NBA attempting 42.8 attempts per game.  The Jazz rank up there as well at 39.6 attempts per game.  That's going to create long rebounds and easy fast break opportunities for both teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* USC/TCU Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on TCU +6.5

The only reason this line is as high as it is is because TCU starting QB Josh Hoover has entered the transfer portal and will not play.  But the Horned Frogs look to have everyone else prepared to play in this game and finish the season strong.  And I don't think the loss of Hoover hurts TCU more than all the opt-outs for USC.  And I have no doubt TCU wants to be playing in this bowl game more than USC does, and motivation is everything in bowl season.

The Horned Frogs will be in good hands with 5th-year Senior QB Ken Seals.  He started 22 games in the SEC at Vanderbilt.  He has thrown for 4,413 yards and 29 TD in his career, and he played on some very bad Vanderbilt teams.  He has way more weapons around him at TCU to be successful, especially with leading WR Eric McCalister (64 receptions, 1,121 yards, 10 TD) and TE DJ Rogers (32 receptions, 300 yards, 2 TD) both electing to play in this bowl game.

Three key defenders in S Jamel Johnson (89 tackles, 4 INT), S Bud Clark (54 tackles, 4 INT) and LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr (Leading tackler, 119 tackles, 4 sacks) were all potential opt-outs who are all going to play in this game bowl.  I think the amount of participation they are getting from all of their top plays says everything you need to know about how much this Alamo Bowl in their home state of Texas means to this team.

"It feeds into next year. We want to leave this place better than how we found it," Johnson told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "It was us coming together one more time. It's just a blessing and something we wanted to do."

"We have a tremendous culture, and again, I think it revealed itself at the end of the year, in the fact that our guys played so hard down the stretch and it meant something to them," Dykes said of a team that finished the regular season with wins over then-No. 23 Houston and Cincinnati.

"Ken started 22 games in the SEC," Dykes said. "He's been a great teammate, a great practice player. Now he's going to get a chance to go perform on the big stage. He's excited about it, our team believes in him, and we've moving on quickly."

USC has a laundry list of opt-outs and will be a shell of itself for this bowl game.  The Trojans will be without their top three receivers in Makai Lemon (79 receptions, 1,156 yards, 11 TD), Ja'Kobi Lane (49 receptions, 745 yards, 4 TD) and TE Lake McRee (30 receptions, 450 yards, 4 TD).  Starting LT Elijah Paige and C Killian O'Connor, their two best linemen, won't play due to injury.  QB Jayden Maiava will play, but he has almost no chance to be successful behind this offensive line and without those weapons.

The Trojans lost defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn to Penn State, and he was the main reason they had an improved defense this season.  The Trojans will be without a handful of key defenders in LB Eric Gentry (76 taclkes, 3 sacks), S Bishop Fitzgerald (51 tackles, 5 INT), S Kamari Ramsey (27 tackles), EDGE Anthony Lucas (37 tackles, 3 sacks), DT Keeshawn Silver (17 tackles) and DE Jahkeem Stewart (18 tackles, 1.5 sacks).  What a mess.  Bet TCU Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Louisville/Cal OVER 159.5

Louisville is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 45th in adjusted tempo, 12th in average length of offensive possession, 7th in adjusted offense and 1st in 3-point rate.  The Cardinals are scoring 91.6 points per game, averaging 17.1 points per game more than their opponents typically allow on average this season.

Ryan Conwell (19.2 PPG) is an elite scorer, and now the Cardinals get Mikel Brown Jr. (16.6 PPG) back from injury after a 2-game absence.  They will have all hands on deck tonight, and they will hang a big number on California to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

California has played a lot of teams that play slower this season which has kept their combined scores lower than they should be.  But the Golden Bears faced a team that profiles similarly to Louisville earlier this season in Kansas State, and that game saw 195 combined points.  The Cardinals are by far the best offensive team they have faced all season.  They will be forced to play faster trying to keep up.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Tennessee/Illinois Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Illinois +3.5

After making the 12-team playoff last season, I question how motivated the Tennessee Volunteers will be to be playing in the Music City Bowl this season.  And given all their opt outs coming into this game, it's easy to see they will be a shell of their regular season selves for this game.

Tennessee will be without leading WR Chris Brazzell II (62 receptions, 1,017 yards, 9 TD) as he prepares for the NFL Draft.  They will also be without leading tackler LB Arion Carter (76 tackles), DE Joshua Josephs (33 tackles, 4 sacks) and CB Colton Hood (50 tackles, 1 INT).  They were already without their top two corners due to injury all season.

No question Illinois is excited to be here.  That is evident by their lack of opt outs as the only key guy they will be missing is LB Gabe Jacas.  QB Luke Altmyer (68.1% completions, 21-to-5 TD/INT ratio) and two of his favorite targets in WR Hank Beatty (Leading receiver, 64 receptions, 826 yards, 3 TD) and TE Tanner Arkin have decided to play in this game.

Altmyer recalls attending the 2011 Music City Bowl to root on his hometown team, Mississippi State. "These bowl games are very, very core memories for families, for myself, for the guys obviously," Altmyer said. "It's something I don't take for granted. It's going to stick with me forever, so I'm going to give it my best to make it a good one."

Altmyer and company should light up this short-handed Tennessee defense.  The Vols were last seen allowing 582 total yards in a 45-24 home loss to Vanderbilt in the regular season finale.  They didn't show up for that game, and I don't expect them to show up for this game, either.  Illinois will be the team playing with more intensity and that's everything in bowl season.  Bet Illinois Tuesday.

20* Rams/Falcons ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 49.5

The Los Angeles Rams just put up 581 total yards in a 38-37 loss at Seattle last week in their first game without star WR Devante Adams.  If that's not the case for Matthew Stafford to win MVP I don't know what is.  This is the best offense in the NFL and it will be on display again tonight in perfect conditions in the dome in Atlanta.  

This total of 49.5 is too short for a game involving the Rams, who have a suspect defense.  The Rams are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 59 points with Carolina, 62 with Arizona, 75 with Detroit and 75 with Seattle.

The Rams will get their points, and I think the Falcons can keep up in a shootout.  They put up 29 points and 476 total yards on the Bucs two weeks ago and 26 points on the Cardinals last week.  Kirk Cousins and Kyle Pitts are developing a great chemistry, and WR Drake London just returned from injury last week and should have a big game this week.

I also like the fact that both teams are great at running the football with two-headed monsters at RB, which makes things easier when they get into the red zone to put up touchdowns instead of field goals.  The Falcons have rushed for at least 111 yards in seven consecutive games, and the Rams have rushed for at least 119 yards in seven of their last eight games.

Both defenses have struggled against the run with the Falcons ranking 26th allowing 128.2 rushing yards per game and 25th at 4.6 yards per carry allowed.  The Rams allow 4.1 yards per carry and just gave up 171 rushing yards on 25 carries to the Seahawks last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Cavs/Spurs NBC No-Brainer on OVER 243

De'Aron Fox participated in shootaround today which is a good sign he'll return to the lineup.  The Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team with him in the lineup due to what he brings offensively with his ability to push the pace and get easy shots for teammates.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall and that is largely due to getting healthy as well.  They went for 250 combined points with New York, 259 with New Orleans, 271 with Charlotte and 261 with Chicago.

This is a rematch from December 5th earlier this month when the Cavs won 130-117 over the Spurs for 247 combined points.  This game only saw 48 points in the 4th quarter so it could have easily been even more high-scoring.  The Cavs shot 31% from 3 and the Spurs 35%, so it's not like either team shot lights out.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Heat OVER 245

We have two dead nuts OVER teams squaring off tonight with the Denver Nuggets visiting the Miami Heat.  The Heat are an OVER team because they rank 1st in pace, while the Nuggets are an OVER team because they rank 1st in offensive rating and 20th in defensive rating.

The Nuggets are 13-3 OVER in their last 16 games overall.  In their last two road games, they went for 261 combined points at Dallas and 253 combined points at Orlando.  It will be more of the same tonight against the Miami Heat.

The Heat are as healthy as they have been in a long time and coming off 142 points against the Pacers and 126 against the Hawks.  They have both Larsson and Jovic back in the lineup and these are two playmakers offensively that they have been missing.  They combined for 35 points against the Pacers and 31 against the Hawks.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +6

The Brooklyn Nets have quietly gone 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall with upset wins at Minnesota by 16 as 12-point dogs, at Philadelphia by 8 as 9-point dogs, vs. Toronto by 15 as 3.5-point dogs, vs. Milwaukee by 45 as 1.5-point dogs, at Chicago by 10 as 8-point dogs and vs. Charlotte by 13 as 4.5-point dogs.  They also beat New Orleans by 18 as 3.5-point home favorites.  They are grossly undervalued right now.

This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors.  They are coming off a 141-127 (OT) loss at Toronto last night and will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Even though both Curry and Butler are expected to play tonight, I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Nets, who had yesterday off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.

Curry played 41 minutes last night and Butler played 37 minutes.  The Warriors have been awful on the road all season going 6-12 SU & 7-11 ATS.  They should not be laying 6 points to the Nets, who will likely win this game outright as well.  Bet the Nets Monday.

15* CBB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Cornell/Michigan State OVER 156.5

Cornell is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-3 OVER in all games this season including 6-2 OVER in all games played away from home.  The Big Red and their opponents have combined for at least 158 points in 10 of their 11 games this season.  This total of 156.5 is too short for a game involving Cornell.

What makes the Big Red such an OVER team is they rank 18th in adjusted tempo and 8th in average length of offensive possession.  They are snipers on offense ranking 69th in adjusted offense and terrible on defense ranking 332nd in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective FG percentage on offense and 4th in 3-point percentage.

Michigan State is going to hang a big number on Cornell to pave the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  The Spartans have scored at least 79 points against all teams not named Arkansas, UNC, Iowa, Duke and Penn State.  They will easily top 80 points in this game, and Cornell will do their best to keep up in a shootout and keep pushing the pace for 40 minutes.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bears/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51

The San Francisco 49ers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 16.4 points per game.  This run has coincided with getting Brock Purdy back healthy, and he leads the NFL in QBR (75.8).

Purdy has this San Francisco offense humming with an average of 34.4 points per game during this five-game winning streak.  He just threw 5 TD passes in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis.  He should stay hot against a Chicago defense that ranks 19th in scoring at 23.6 points per game, 25th in total defense at 348.1 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.

The 49ers are going to hang a big number on the Bears, and Caleb Williams and company will be forced to keep up in a shootout.  I think the Bears are capable with the offensive-minded Ben Johnson calling the shots.  Chicago ranks 5th in total offense at 371.5 yards per game with tremendous balance.  The Bears get back Luther Burden from injury and will have their full compliment of weapons this week outside Rome Odunze.  They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

The 49ers have a mediocre defense without Warner and Bosa.  They have managed to patch it together, but against the elite offenses of the NFL they have given up a lot of points.  They just gave up 27 points to Philip Rivers and the Colts last week after allowing 24 points to the lowly Titans the previous week.  

The 49ers are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 58 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  This is actually a very low total for this game that features two of the top offenses in the NFL up against two of the weaker defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Wizards OVER 240

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 8th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and their offense thrives with Alex Sarr (18.2 PPG) in the lineup.

The Wizards are coming off a 138-117 home win over the Raptors for 255 combined points.  They just recently played the Grizzlies and beat them 130-122 for 252 combined points on December 20th.  Neither team shot the lights out either as the Wizards shot 47.5% and the Grizzlies 45%.

The Grizzlies now have JA Morant back in the lineup who they didn't have in that first meeting with the Wizards.  Morant is a dead nuts OVER player providing a lot on the offensive end including extra pace, but nothing on defense.  The Grizzlies have scored at least 119 points in six of their last eight games including 125 and 137 in their last two.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 252 combined points in each of the last two meetings.  This total of 240 is too short tonight for two teams that rank inside the Top 10 in pace.  Bet he OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -6.5

The Boston Celtics are a better team than most people realize this season.  They are 19-11 SU & 17-13 ATS while ranking 4th in the NBA in net rating (+7), trailing only the Thunder, Rockets and Nuggets in that department.  So they have consistently been the best team in the East even ahead of the Knicks.

The Celtics are 14-4 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall and have stayed remarkably healthy with nobody on the injury report currently.  They have been at their best on the road during this stretch going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  They won by 18 at Indiana and by 16 at Toronto in their last two road games.

The Portland Trail Blazers are a mess right now due to to all their injuries.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall which have all come at home.  They lost by 8 to Detroit, by 4 to Orlando and by 16 to the short-handed Clippers.

Avidja and Sharpe are solid players, but the Blazers are really missing a point guard without Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson.  They are also without Jerami Grant and Robert Williams.  Avidja and Sharpe are being asked to do too much of the ball-handling and their offense is a mess.  They have scored 106 or fewer points in four consecutive games now.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Las Vegas Raiders ML +102

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser with the Raiders +7.5 or better paired with the Bengals -1 and/or the Titans +7.5 or better.

The loser of this game will likely get the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.  I trust Pete Carroll to coach this game harder than interim Mike Kafka, because it's not in Carroll's nature to lose games on purpose.  It's like like it's a killer QB draft class, either.

The Giants have looked like they've been tanking for weeks.  They are 0-9 SU in their last nine games overall and just had 141 total yards in their loss to the Vikings last week.  They don't want to get Jaxson Dart hurt again and haven't been using the entire playbook as a result.

Of course, it's difficult for Dart to have any success being this banged up New York offensive line that will be without three starters this week as the Giants just put LT Andrew Thomas, C John Michael Schmitz and RG Evan Neal on IR.  They also just ruled out one of their best weapons in Theo Johnson, a sign that they are tanking.

The Raiders have at least been competitive here down the stretch.  That was evident last week in a 23-21 road loss to the Texans as 14-point dogs in a game they should have won.  They outgained the Texans 315 to 270, or by 45 total yards.

The Raiders have by far the better defense in this game.  Las Vegas ranks 15th in total defense at 326.1 yards per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play.  New York ranks 29th in total defense at 373 yards per game and 29th at 6.1 yards per play.

Rookie RB Ashton Jeanty had 188 yards from scrimmage and 2 TD last week against that vaunted Houston defense that is the best in the NFL.  He should feast on this Giants defense whose biggest weakness is against the run.  They rank 31st allowing 150.9 rushing yards per game and dead last (32nd) allowing 5.5 yards per carry.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Raiders on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Giants/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 41.5

The loser of this game has the inside track to the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.  Both teams have decided to sit some guys that makes it seem like they may be doing everything they can to lose this game.  And the best way to lose a game is to not score points, which is why I really like the UNDER in this game Sunday.

The Giants managed just 141 total yards against the Vikings last week in a game it looked like they were tanking as Jaxson Dart attempted only 13 passes despite trailing all game.  They are doing everything they can to keep Dart healthy, which has really limited the playbook.

Of course, it's difficult for Dart to have any success being this banged up New York offensive line that will be without three starters this week as the Giants just put LT Andrew Thomas, C John Michael Schmitz and RG Evan Neal on IR.  They also just ruled out one of their best weapons in Theo Johnson, a sign that they are tanking.

The Raiders have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and aren't brining back LT Miller, G Powers-Johnson or G Meredith from IR when at least two of them could have returned, especially Miller.  They also just decided to shut down their best weapon in TE Brock Bowers, placing him on IR earlier this week, a sign they are tanking and doing everything to not score.

Las Vegas ranks 15th in total defense at 326.1 yards per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play.  The strength of the Raiders is their defensive line, and they will wreak havoc on this banged up New York offensive line.  The same can be said for the Giants, who have elite pass rushers to get after Geno Smith.

The Raiders and their opponents have combined for 41 or fewer points in eight of their 15 games this season.  They rank dead last (32nd) in total offense at 248.9 yards per game.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team, and given the tanking nature of both teams with all the players they are missing on offense, I just can't see a shootout.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Fullerton/SMU OVER 173.5

SMU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 118th in adjusted tempo, 24th in average length of offensive possession, 33rd in adjusted offense and just 78th in adjusted defense.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall including a 99-82 home win over Central Arkansas last time out for 181 combined points.  They have scored at least 87 points in nine of their 12 games this season.

What makes CS-Fullerton a dead nuts OVER team is playing at a break-neck pace, ranking 4th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession.  The Titans are also better offensively than they are defensively, ranking 240th in adjusted defense.

Fullerton is 6-2 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The Titans and their opponents have combined for at least 182 points in six of their last nine games overall.  So this total of 173.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Fullerton.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Colorado +15.5

The Colorado Buffaloes won't have their normal home-court advantage today with students home for Christmas Break.  They also won't have it due to playing another team from Colorado here in Northern Colorado, which will be the more motivated team to prove their chops against a Power 4 opponent.

Colorado has been grossly overvalued going 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games.  The Buffaloes only beat Cal Baptist by 8 as 12.5-point favorites, lost at Colorado State by 5, only beat Portland State by 11 as 16-point home favorites and lost on a neutral to Stanford by 9 as 3-point favorites.

We saw Cal Baptist and Portland State take Colorado to the wire on the road, and Northern Colorado is better than both of those teams.  The Bears are 9-3 this season with their 3 losses coming by 1, 7 and 11 points.  That 11-point loss was impressive because it came on the road at Texas Tech as 25-point dogs in their last road games.  If they can hang with Texas Tech, they can certainly hang with Colorado.  Bet Northern Colorado Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Bucs -4.5

The Tampa Bay Bucs are in must-win mode if they want a chance to win the NFC South and make the playoffs.  This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Bucs after going 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  We'll gladly take advantage and lay the short number here with the Bucs on the road against the hapless Miami Dolphins.

A big reason for the Bucs' struggles has been injuries during this stretch, but they are now as healthy as they have been basically all season going into Week 17.  This is the first time that Baker Mayfield has had his full compliment of weapons at RB, WR and TE.  Only LT Tristan Wirfs is out on offense.

Mayfield and company should hang a big number on this Miami defense that just allowed 45 points to the Bengals last week the game after getting eliminated from the playoffs.  They let go of the rope, and they have no reason to try and grab back onto it.  They will be without three of their best defenders in FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, DT Benito Jones and his backup in DT Jordan Phillips.  The Dolphins are very thin on the defensive line and in the secondary.

The Bucs are fully healthy on defense for the first time in a long time.  The only key player they are missing is CB Zyon McCollum, who has been on IR for weeks.  This version of this defense held the Panthers in check last week to just 23 points and 275 total yards.  They will be good enough to keep rookie QB Quinn Ewers and this Miami offense that lacks weapons in check.  The Dolphins have scored 21 points or fewer in four of their last five games coming in.  

The Bucs have lost three straight games outright to division opponents by 1, 3 and 4 points.  Eight teams have been listed as a favorite since 2009 after losing three straight games against division opponents, and those eight teams went 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS, covering the spread by an average of 15.8 points per game.  The Bucs need it more and they'll go out and get it to keep their playoff hopes alive heading into Week 18.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Dolphins OVER 46.5

This is the first time that Baker Mayfield has had his full compliment of weapons at RB, WR and TE.  Only LT Tristan Wirfs is out on offense.  This version of the Bucs offense is one of the best in the NFL and the one that was lighting up teams early on in the season.  They should get their swagger back this week.

Mayfield and company should hang a big number on this Miami defense that just allowed 45 points to the Bengals last week the game after getting eliminated from the playoffs.  They let go of the rope, and they have no reason to try and grab back onto it.  They will be without three of their best defenders in FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, DT Benito Jones and his backup in DT Jordan Phillips.  The Dolphins are very thin on the defensive line and in the secondary.

Rookie Quinn Ewers actually played well outside of his 2 INT against in the 45-21 home loss to the Bengals that saw 66 combined points last week.  The Dolphins had 389 total yards in that game, including 260 passing from Ewers completing 20-of-30 attempts.  This Tampa Bay defense can be had as it ranks 27th in the NFL allowing 6.0 yards per play this season.

The forecast looks great for another shootout in Miami with temps approaching 80, no wind and no rain.  I expect the Bucs to get in the 30's and the Dolphins to get in the 20's in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cardinals/Bengals OVER 52

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games, five of which have seen 51 or more combined points, with four of those going for 60 or more combined points.  It took a missed XP and two missed FG for us to not cash OVER 45.5 last week as the Falcons and Cardinals combined for 45 points.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last seven games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another four questionable.  Their entire projected starting secondary is either out or questionable.

This Arizona offense is forced to play fast to try and keep up in shootouts, and Jacoby Brissett has been doing a good job of it getting the ball to two of the most underrated weapons in the NFL in TE Trey McBride and WR Michael Wilson.  The Cardinals have scored at least 22 points in seven of their last 10 games.  Now WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and WR Xavier Weaver returned from injuries last week to give Brissett more weapons outside.

The Cincinnati Bengals are also a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense.  We have seen that offense light up opponents in recent weeks.  The Bengals are coming off a 45-21 win at Miami.  They also got in a 39-34 shootout with Buffalo three weeks ago.  Joe Burrow and this entire offense is fully healthy, so the Bengals are going to put up a big number on this Arizona defense.

It's also say to say this awful Cincinnati defense is going to give up plenty of points to Arizona, too.  The Bengals rank 32nd in scoring defense at 30.5 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 402.8 yards per game and 32nd at 6.6 yards per play.  The Bengals will be without DE Joseph Ossai, and DT B.J. Hill is questionable.  Brissett should have all day to find receivers against this weak Cincinnati pass rush.

It will be great weather in Cincinnati Sunday with temps in the 60's, and the winds won't be too strong plus there is very little chance of precipitation.  This game just screams shootout with the way these two teams are built right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Bengals -7

Note: I love the Bengals -1 in a 6-point teaser.  My favorite pairings with them are the Raiders +7.5 or better and Titans +7.5 or better.

The Arizona Cardinals are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall losing five times by 7 points or more and four times by 19 points or more.  They are getting blown out on the regular, and they are better off at this point losing games to try and get the best draft pick possible.  Given all the guys they are sitting due to injury here down the stretch, it appears they are doing just that.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last seven games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another four questionable.  Their entire projected starting secondary is either out or questionable.

That's bad news for them going up against a Cincinnati offense that is one of the top units in the NFL in their current form.  The Bengals are fully healthy on offense basically for the first time all season.  We saw what that led to last week in a 45-21 road win at Miami.  Joe Burrow threw 4 TD passes in the win and looks like his old self again.  Burrow also led the Bengals to 34 points against the Bills three weeks ago and 32 points against the Ravens four weeks ago.  This offense is explosive, and now they face perhaps the worst defense they will have faced all season in the Cardinals, who rank 29th in scoring defense at 27.6 points per game.

The Cardinals are also in trouble on offense due to an offensive line that is basically missing four starters now.  C Froholdt is questionable or it will be five.  That gives Jacoby Brissett little chance of being able to completely keep up with the Bengals in a shootout, because the Bengals are going to hang a big number on them no matter what.  The Cardinals have averaged a modest 20.1 points per game during their current 7-game losing streak.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Saints/Titans OVER 39.5

This game features two of the most exciting rookie QB's in the league in Cam Ward of the Titans and Tyler Shough of the Saints.  I think both rookies will be looking to show out here, especially Shough who is the 2nd choice in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds currently.

Shough has led the Saints to three consecutive victories putting up 24 points on Tampa Bay, 20 on Carolina and 29 on the Jets.  He just threw 49 times for 308 yards last week, a clear sign that QB Kellen Moore is trying to get him the numbers he needs to win Rookie of the Year.  It's also due to injuries to their top two RB's, so the Saints just have to go more pass-happy with a lack of a running game.  A pass-happy game plan will lead to more clock stoppages and more points.

The Titans are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games.  They won a 31-29 thriller in Cleveland for 60 combined points.  They lost a 37-24 shootout to the 49ers for 61 combined points.  And last week they hung 26 points and 376 total yards on the Chiefs.  The running game is clicking, and the Titans are fully healthy on offense right now here down the stretch and it shows.

I like backing OVERS in games between eliminated teams late in the season when I know both offenses are trying.  And that's the case with both of these teams.  I think the offenses are ahead of the defenses at this point in the season too, and this total of 39.5 is too short today as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Colts OVER 47.5

The Jaguars are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They have gone for 51 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  The only two games they didn't came against two dead nuts under teams in the Chargers and Titans.

Head coach Liam Coen, QB Trevor Lawrence, and new WR Jakobi Myers are all in sync right now and hitting on all cylinders.  In fact, the Jaguars have scored 25 or more points in eight consecutive games while averaging 33.0 points per game in those eight games.

No question the Jaguars are going to stay hot and hang a big number on an Indianapolis defense that just allowed 48 points and 5 passing TD's to Brock Purdy on Monday Night Football.  They also allowed 36 points to the Jaguars three games ago.

I was impressed with Philip Rivers on Monday Night leading the Colts to 27 points in that 48-27 loss to the 49ers that saw 75 combined points.  Rivers threw for 277 yards and 2 TD with one INT in the loss.  The Jaguars did allow 445 total yards to Bo Nix and the Broncos last week, so I think the Colts will have plenty of offensive success to contribute to this total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Spurs OVER 242.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The Jazz are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 247 or more combined points in all seven games.  This total of 242.5 is pretty short for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Spurs will have no problem running with them.  The Spurs and their opponents have combined for at least 237 points in nine of their last 14 games overall.  The Spurs and Jazz have combined for 243 and 244 points in their last two meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +11

The Brooklyn Nets have quietly gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with upset wins at Philadelphia by 8 as 9-point dogs, vs. Toronto by 15 as 3.5-point dogs, vs. Milwaukee by 45 as 1.5-point dogs, at Chicago by 10 as 8-point dogs and vs. Charlotte by 13 as 4.5-point dogs.  They also beat New Orleans by 18 as 3.5-point home favorites.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a gutting 142-138 (OT) loss to the Denver Nuggets on Christmas Day.  I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and with the way the Timberwolves are playing right now they have no business being double-digit favorites over the Nets.

The Timberwolves have been grossly overvalued all season going 12-19 ATS in all games.  They tend to play to the level of their competition, which is why they have just two wins in their last 17 games by more than 11 points, and those came by 13 and 14 points.  They just aren't blowing anyone out, and they won't be blowing out the Nets tonight, either.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Bulls OVER 235

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and showing how potent they can be offensively when that's the case.

The Bulls are 5-0 in the last four games scoring 127 and 136 against Cleveland and 152 and 126 against Atlanta.  They went for 249, 302 and 261 combined points in their last three games prior to last night's 109-102 win over the 76ers where neither team shot it well.

I expect this game against the Bucks to be much more high-scoring, especially with Giannis Antetokounmpo (28.9 PPG) making his much-anticipated return from a calf injury.  They are fully healthy everywhere else and a potent offensive team when that's the case.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Ravens/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Baltimore +5

This will be a battle of backup QB's with the Ravens going with a healthy Tyler Huntley and the Packers going with a banged up Malik Morris who was limited in practice all week with a shoulder injury.  Jordan Love has been ruled out for this one with a concussion.

I actually think the Ravens have the better QB in Huntley and the better overall roster right now from a healthy standpoint.  They should not be catching this many points on the road as the only thing the Packers have going for them is home-field advantage.

The Ravens also have the motivational advantage.  They are eliminated from playoff contention if they lose this game, so they will be 'all in' for this one.  The Packers were just gifted a spot in the playoffs thanks to an upset loss by the Detroit Lions to the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday.  Now the Packers have a very slim chance to even improve their seeding as they'd need the Bears to lose their final two games while the Packers win their final two games to win the division.  That's pretty unlikely and they know it.

The Ravens are 6-3 SU in their last nine games overall with two losses coming by 5 points or fewer.  This run dates back to Huntley's last start, a 30-16 home win over the Chicago Bears.  Huntley went 17-of-22 passing for 186 yards and a TD while also rushing for 53 yards in the win.  I don't even think he's that big of a downgrade from the current version of Lamar Jackson, who has been playing through injury for weeks.  The Ravens are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL even with the Jackson injury factored in.  They have everyone healthy on offense with the exception of Jackson and all their best players healthy on defense with all 11 starters.

The Packers are coming off consecutive losses to the Broncos 34-26 on the road and the Bears 22-16 on the road.  They needed to go to OT against the Bears last week, so that will make them even more tired coming into this one.  And the injuries are much worse than just Jordan Love.  They are missing arguably their two most important defenders in DT Devonte Wyatt and LB Micah Parsons.  SS Evan Williams is questionable.  

You can run up the middle against the soft part of this Green Bay defense, so expect Derrick Henry to have a big game.  The Ravens have rushed for an average of 192.3 yards per game in their last three games and rank 3rd in the NFL in rushing.  Offensively, C Sean Rhyan, RT Zach Tom and WR Christian Watson are all questionable.  They are already without C Elgton Jenkins to IR.  Baltimore has proven it has one of the best defenses in the NFL since a return to health nine games ago off their bye week.  They have allowed just 17.1 points per game in their last 10 games.  Bet the Ravens Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Pelicans OVER 237

The Pelicans are 10-5 OVER in their last 15 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 237 points at the end of regulation in 10 of those 15 games.  The Pelicans rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 11-3 OVER in their last 14 home games going for 241 or more combined points in eight of their last 12 home games.  This total of 237 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home, especially with their offense taking off even more since getting Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole back healthy in recent games.

The Suns are coming off a pair of OVERS combining for 235 points at Golden State and 240 points at home against the Lakers.  The Suns are playing a pressing style for four quarters that could give the Pelicans troubles with turnovers and quick buckets for the Suns in transition.  That style will also up the tempo in this game overall, which the Pelicans have no problem with.

This is a rematch from a 115-108 win by the Suns last night in New Orleans for just 223 combined points.  The pace was there for the OVER, but the shooting was abysmal.  Phoenix shot 8-of-40 (20%) from 3, while New Orleans shot 5-of-25 (20%) from 3 and missed 17 free throws.  I have to think both teams will shoot much better in the rematch tonight and this thing will sail OVER 237 combined points as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* North Texas/San Diego State New Mexico Bowl No-Brainer on North Texas -6

North Texas should have almost all hands on deck for this bowl game.  That makes the Mean Green a potent team, one that came up just short of making the 12-team playoff.  Eric Morris wanted to coach the bowl game, but the rest of the staff remains intact for it so there still should be good chemistry heading into this game.

"These guys are locked in," North Texas interim coach Drew Svoboda said. "Initially, obviously, coming off a loss in the American Conference championship game, there was a lot of disappointment in that locker room. When we brought everybody back and had a chance to get all these guys together and talk about the goal and what's still in front of this football team, we realized they're excited to play."

The Mean Green are motivated to end a 7-game bowl losing streak with their last bowl win coming in 2013.  QB Drew Mestemaker led the nation with 4,129 yards and 31 TD, and RB Caleb Hawkins is a monster with 1,226 rushing yards and 23 TD, plus 345 receiving yards and another 3 scores.  They lead a Mean Green offense that ranks 1st in the country in scoring at 44.8 points per game and 1st in total offense at 504.3 yards per game.

Given all the guys San Diego State will be missing on offense, I give the Aztecs no chance of keeping up with the Mean Green.  QB Jayden Denegal had surgery at the end of the season and is out.  That leaves Central Michigan transfer Bert Emanuel Jr. at QB, and he has only attempts 9 passes all season.  Leading receiver Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) is out, as is fellow WR Jacob Bostick.

The Aztecs to have a great defense, but they are likely going to be without CB Chris Johnson (48 tackles, 9 PD), LB Owen Chambliss (105 tackles, 4 sacks) and EDGE Trey White (43 tackles, 7 sacks).  Those are their three best defenders.  They are also without the architect of that defense in coordinator Rob Aurich, who left for the same job at Nebraska.  Rumors are Chambliss and White will both follow him to Nebraska, and Johnson is likely to sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft.

San Diego State ranks 106th in total offense at 341.8 yards per game this season.  This offense has been really poor down the stretch once injuries hit them.  The Aztecs have averaged just 16.3 points per game in their last four games and haven't topped 25 points in any of their last six games.  I just don't think they'll be able to keep up with the Mean Green, who are going to score.  Bet North Texas Saturday.

20* UConn/Army Fenway Bowl No-Brainer on Army -6.5

For starters, Service Academies like Army are 18-3 SU & 18-3 ATS in their last 21 bowl games.  These service academies never have any players opt out and they always show up with their best effort in these bowl games.  That will be no different for Army in the Fenway Bowl today.

UConn lost head coach Jim Mora to Colorado State.  Gone with him are so many key players.  They will be down four starting offensive linemen and QB Joe Fagnano, who was one of the best QB's in the country.  He completed 68.9% of his passes for 3,441 yards with a 28-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season.  The Huskies will be down to a 4th stringer at QB.

Army will run wild in the triple-option against this terrible UConn defense, which allows 185.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry this season.  The Huskies rank 114th against the run.  Army has a very good defense that ranks 45th in scoring at 22.1 points per game and 50th in total defense at 349.9 yards per game.  They are finally fully healthy on defense with the return of CB Justin Weaver and their top two interior defensive linemen.

I also like the fact that Army sits at 6-6 on the season.  There's a big difference between 7-6 and 6-7 as teams always want to finish with a winning record over a losing record.  It's not like they need the extra motivation, but they will easily be the more motivated team today, which is everything in bowl season.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Jazz OVER 243.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They are really an OVER team at home where they dictate pace, which is what they'll do tonight against the Detroit Pistons, forcing them to get into a run-and-gun game with them.

The Jazz are 13-4 OVER in their 17 home games this season averaging 255.9 combined points per game at home.  Their last four home games have been ridiculously high-scoring combining for 265 points with the Grizzlies, 255 with the Magic, 278 with the Lakers and 273 with the Mavs.  This total of 243.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Utah at home.

The Pistons are coming off a 136-127 road win at Sacramento for 263 combined points.  The Pistons won't mind getting in a shootout with the Jazz tonight as they are the better team, so more possessions is good for them.  Both teams are also very healthy coming into this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* FIU/UTSA First Responder Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 59.5

Both teams are decimated by opt outs and injuries on defense.  Both teams have almost all hands on deck on offense.  This First Responder Bowl figures to be a shootout due to all the players that won't be playing on defense.  The forecast also favors a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.

FIU wil be without their entire secondary basically.  CB Brian Blades (26 tackles, 5 PD, 1 INT), CB Mister Clark (59 tackles, 13 PD, 3 INT), CB Victor Evans (42 tackles, 4 PD, 1 INT), FS Jessiah McGrew (67 tackles, 4 INT) are four starters who will all be out.  The Panthers should have all hands on deck on offense including both QB's and RB Owens (1,298 yards, 11 TD).

UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor said his defense will be without at least 6 or 7 starters.  But the offense is in much better shape led by QB Owen McCown, who is completing 67.7% of his passes for 2,695 yards and a 27-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season.

FIU is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall going for 86 combined points with Middle Tennessee, 61 with Liberty and 72 with Sam Houston State.  UTSA is 5-1-1 OVER in its last seven games overall going for 82 combined points with ECU, 78 with USF, 74 with Tulane, 72 with North Texas and 74 with Rice.  This total is too short given all the opt outs defensively plus how these teams trended down the stretch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Pelicans OVER 238.5

The Pelicans are 10-4 OVER in their last 14 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 237 points at the end of regulation in 10 of those 14 games.  The Pelicans rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 home games going for 241 or more combined points in eight of their last 11 home games.  This total of 238.5 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home, especially with their offense taking off even more since getting Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole back healthy in recent games.

The Suns are coming off a pair of OVERS combining for 235 points at Golden State and 240 points at home against the Lakers.  The Suns are playing a pressing style for four quarters that could give the Pelicans troubles with turnovers and quick buckets for the Suns in transition.  That style will also up the tempo in this game overall, which the Pelicans have no problem with.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Pelicans and Suns.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Bulls OVER 239.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and showing how potent they can be offensively when that's the case.

The Bulls are 4-0 in the last four games scoring 127 and 136 against Cleveland and 152 and 126 against Atlanta.  They went for 249, 302 and 261 combined points in their last three games, so this total of 239.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Chicago right now.

The Bulls should stay hot against the 76ers, who won't mind getting in a shootout with them tonight.  The 76ers also come in very healthy with Maxey, George, Edgecombe, Barlow and Grimes all expected to play.  Embiid is questionable.  The 76ers have the firepower with all these guys healthy to keep up with the Bulls in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls ML +100

The Chicago Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  The result has been a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS run in their last four games.  After beating the Cavs 127-111 as 5.5-point home dogs, they backed it up by beating the Cavs 136-125 as 8-point road dogs in the rematch.  After beating the Hawks 152-150 as 2-point road favorites, they backed it up with a 126-123 road win at Atlanta as 3.5-point dogs.

Now they take on a struggling Philadelphia 76ers team that is coming off a 114-106 home loss to the Nets as 9.5-point favorites.  They have the 76ers' number, too, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings while outscoring the 76ers by a combined 64 points in those three wins.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Friday.

20* Broncos/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Denver -12.5

The Broncos got humbled with a home loss to the Jaguars last week.  They outgained the Jaguars 445 to 346, or by 99 yards, so it was a misleading 34-20 defeat.  They must win out to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC now so they have no margin for error.  They certainly won't be taking the division rival Chiefs lightly as a result.

The Chiefs look like they are blatantly tanking right now with all of the starters they are resting due to injury.  It's not even just Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew being out, it's a lot more than that.  The Chiefs will now have to start 3rd-string QB Chris Oladokun.

It looks as if the Chiefs will now be without WR Rashee Rice and WR Tyquan Thornton.  They are also without three of their top four offensive tackles on the O-Line.  Minshew had now chance to be successful last week, and Oladokun has no chance to be successful this week with the offense will be fielding.

The Chiefs lost 26-9 at the Titans last week and it was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Titans outgained the Chiefs 376 to 133, or by 243 total yards.  The Broncos will post a similar beat down of the of the Chiefs not only in the stats, but on the scoreboard as well.  Oladokun is also at a big disadvantage having to prepare to start on a short week with this game being played on Thursday.

The Chiefs are also likely to be without several starters on defense in DT Nadi, CB McDuffie, CB Watson and LB Chenal who were all out last week.  The Broncos have been humming on offense putting up 34 points and 391 yards on the Packers and 445 yards on the Jaguars the last two weeks.  I expect the Broncos to dice up this short-handed Chiefs defense.

The Broncos are very healthy overall including on defense.  This will be a nightmare for Oladokun going up against a Denver defense that ranks 5th in scoring at 19.7 points per game, 4th in total defense at 291.6 yards per game, 2nd in yards per play at 4.9 and 1st in sacks at 4.2 per game.  The books can't set this number high enough as Denver should win this game by 2-plus touchdowns with ease.  

It will be similar to the Week 18 game last year where the Chiefs rested their starters and the Broncos won 38-0.  The Chiefs have incentive to tank to try and build around Mahomes for next year with the best draft pick possible.  With all the guys they are sitting out, it appears at least from a coaching and front office standpoint, they are trying to lose these final games.  The Chiefs will also have no home-field advantage here as almost all their tickets up up for sale and there will likely be more Broncos fans in attendance.  Denver needs this win like blood and will treat it like it.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

20* Rockets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on OVER 230.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are a perfect 11-0 OVER in their 11 home games this season.  Los Angeles home games are averaging 244.1 combined points per game.  It looks as though the Lakers will get Luka Doncic back as he has been upgraded to questionable, while Austin Reaves and LeBron are both healthy.  It hasn't mattered who has been in the lineup the Lakers have been a dead nuts OVER team all season, especially at home.

Houston is the 2nd-best road OVER team in the NBA.  The Rockets are 12-5 OVER in all road games averaging 235.3 combined points per game.  The OVER is 6-1 in Rockets last seven games overall with 231 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 234, 254 and 249 combined points in the three OVERS.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Lions/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on OVER 43

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one the worst, most banged up defenses in the NFL.  The OVER is 5-0 in Lions last five games overall with 53 or more combined points in all five.  They have combined for 51 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.  This total of 43 is very low for a game involving Detroit right now.

The Lions rank 2nd in scoring offense at 30.1 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  Detroit ranks 23rd in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 23rd in total defense at 347.4 yards per game and 24th at 5.8 yards per play.

The Lions just allowed 481 total yards to Aaron Rodgers and a suspect Pittsburgh offense last week.  While the Lions are very healthy on offense, their defense is decimated by injuries especially in the secondary.  They are without starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, one of their backup safeties in Avonte Madox, and starting CB Terrion Arnold.  They have 10 defenders on IR or out and another four questionable, including three starters.

I think this total has been set too low due to Minnesota going to 3rd-string QB Max Brosmer today.  I think Brosmer hasn't been given a fair shake since his only start came on the road in tough conditions against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks.  Brosmer went 7-of-9 passing taking over to an injured JJ McCarthy last week on the road against the New York Giants to preserve a 16-13 win.

Brosmer is going to look like a completely different QB today at home in perfect conditions in the dome against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, particularly one of the worst secondaries.  I think he is going to ball out today and have a much better game than most anticipate.  He will also be forced to keep up in a shootout because the Lions will get their points even against this solid Minnesota D.  It's a Minnesota D that just allowed 423 total yards to the Cowboys in their last indoor game two weeks ago.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Vikings and Lions.  These teams have actually combined for 50 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings.  This total of 43 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Thunder UNDER 233.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting between the Spurs and Thunder since the NBA Cup semifinals on December 13th.  These teams know each inside and out, and points will be very hard to come by tonight.

The Spurs upset the Thunder 111-109 for 220 combined points in that NBA Cup semifinal on December 13th.  The Spurs backed it up with a 130-110 home win over the Thunder for 240 combined points on December 23rd just two days ago.  Both teams shot lights out with the Thunder shooting 54% overall and 40% from 3-point range, while the Spurs shot 57% overall and 44% from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot that well again.

The Spurs and Thunder have combined for 220 or fewer points in four of their last six meetings.  The Thunder have been dominant defensively at home allowing just 103.9 points per game.  I fully expect them to shut down the Spurs in this rematch and to lead the way in us cashing this UNDER ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.