15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -3

The Atlanta Falcons would be 2-0 if they had the same kicker for both games.  Koo cost them the game against the Bucs in Week 1, and after getting cut his backup Parker Romo made all 5 of his field goal attempts in a 22-6 road win over the Vikings last week.  Romo earned a new contract with his performance, and the Falcons are happy they got that problem shored up quickly because this is a team with very few weaknesses now.

The biggest upgrade was the pass rush this offseason and that came up big sacking the Vikings 6 times.  They held the Vikings to 198 total yards, and this is a legit defense now.  The Falcons have elite numbers averaging 342 yards per game and allowing just 229 yards per game, outgaining opponents by 113 yards per game.  The offense is loaded with playmakers, one of the best young QB's in the game in Michael Pennix Jr, and now the defense is as good as it has been in Atlanta in a long time.

The Carolina Panthers have no shot of keeping this game close with all the injuries they are dealing with.  After losing 26-10 at Jacksonville in Week 1, the Panthers trailed the Cardinals 27-3 last week.  That was before the Cardinals suffered a ton of injuries in their secondary and were playing with all backups when the Panthers came back and made it a game in the 2H.  That won't happen against the Falcons this week.

The Panthers are averaging 4.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.6 yards per play.  That's even with counting all the garbage yards they accumulated against the Cardinals last week.

The Panthers are without two starting offensive linemen in RG Robert Hunt and C Austin Corbett.  They are without WR Jalen Coker, and fellow WR Xavier Legette is questionable.  Defensively, they are without LB Patrick Jones II and DT Tershawn Wharton.  This is one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and QB Bryce Young doesn't have much of a chance behind this makeshift offensive line and limited playmakers.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +8.5

Since 2010, winless (0-2) teams are 59-35-3 (62.8%) ATS vs. a team with at least one win in Week 3.  This trend makes sends because teams that start 0-2 are undervalued, while teams like the Packers that start 2-0 are overvalued.  The Packers should not be favored by more than a TD on the road against the Browns this week.

No question the Packers are one of the better teams in the NFL.  They beat the Lions 27-13 in Week 1 and the Commanders 27-18 in Week 2.  But both of those wins came at home, and now the Packers will be hitting the road for the first time this week.

The Cleveland Browns have played a brutal schedule and could easily be 1-1 instead of 0-2 if they made kicks.  They held the Bengals to 7 total yards in the 2H in their 17-16 loss in Week 1.  They held the Ravens to 242 total yards last week in their 41-17 defeat, which will prove to be one of the most misleading finals of the year.

The Browns actually rank 1st in the NFL allowing 191.5 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play this season.  When you consider they faced two Top 5 QB's in Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, that makes those numbers even more impressive.  They legitimately have one of the best defenses in the NFL, which is what I want in an underdog catching this many points.  They have outgained the Bengals and Ravens by an average of 133 yards per game despite losing both games.  Talk about misleading.

While the Browns are almost fully healthy heading into this one, the Packers have a ton of injury concerns.  Jordan Love's favorite security blanket in Jayden Reed was just placed on IR.  TE Tucker Kraft who is off to a monster start this season suffered a knee injury in practice and won't be 100% if he plays.  The Packers may find a way to win this game, but it will be a much bigger fight than they bargained for in the Dawg Pound just like it was for the Bengals in Week 1.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +7

Since 2010, winless (0-2) teams are 59-35-3 (62.8%) ATS vs. a team with at least one win in Week 3.  The Tampa Bay Bucs are overvalued after a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They easily could have lost both games as they needed some Baker Mayfield magic for a couple game-winning drives in the final seconds to beat the Falcons 23-20 and the Texans 20-19.

Now the Bucs are fat and happy after their 2-0 start.  We saw this same thing play out last year with the Bucs opening 2-0 and beating the Lions in Week 2 before falling flat on their faces in a 26-7 home loss to Denver as 6-point favorites in Week 3.  I can easily see history repeating itself here.

The Bucs are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.  They have a ton of injuries they are dealing with right now that doesn't warrant them being 7-point favorites.  They will be without 3 starting offensive linemen in LT Tristan Wirfs, RT Luke Goedeke and RG Cody Mauch.  That makes this short week even tougher on the Bucs trying to find some chemistry in this makeshift offensive line that is dealing with cluster injuries.

The Bucs also remain without starting WR Chris Godwin, and now star rookie WR Emeka Egbuka has popped up on the injury report this week and is questionable.  Baker Mayfield appeared to sprain his ankle on that game-winning drive against the Texans last week, and he won't be 100%.  The Bucs also lost their best pass rusher in Calijah Kancey to an injury last week and now he's on IR.

Tyrod Taylor may actually be an upgrade over Justin Fields.  At least Taylor will take care of the football and is more of a threat as a passer than Fields is.  That's what you want in an underdog.  Taylor is actually 34-24 ATS in his career, including 7-3 ATS in his last 10 starts as an underdog of 7 points or more.  He is one of the better backup QB's in the league and could give the Jets just the spark they need after a tough 0-2 start.

If you just looked at the numbers of these two teams through three weeks you wouldn't know which one is 2-0, and which one is 0-2.  The Jets are only getting outgained 5.3 to 5.6 yards per play, or by 0.3 yards per play.  The Bucs are actually getting outgained 5.0 to 5.5 yards per play, or by 0.5 yards per play.  And you could argue the Jets played the tougher schedule in the Bills and Steelers, while the Bucs beat the Texans and Falcons.  This is a game the Jets could easily win outright.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New England Patriots +2

Note: I love a 6-point teaser with the Patriots +7.5/+8 and the Seahawks -1/-1.5 this week!

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a mess defensively right now.  Through two weeks, they rank dead last in EPA per play when adjusting for turnovers and taking them out.  Dating back to last season, the Steelers have now allowed at least 27 points in six of their last seven games overall.  TJ Watt has zero sacks in his last six games and is a shell of his former self.  They have been gashed by two of the worst offenses in the NFL this season.  

They gave up 32 points and 384 total yards to the Jets in Week 1.  That's looks way worse now after Fields and the Jets were shut down by the Bills last week and held to 10 points.  They allowed 31 points and 395 total yards to the Sam Darnold and the Seahawks last week.  The Seahawks were held to 13 points at home by the 49ers the previous week.

The injury situation is really bad for the Steelers.  They are without four starters on defense in CB Joey Porter Jr., SS DeShon Elliott, LB Alex Highsmith and DE Isaiahh Loudermilk.  DE Derrick Harmon is questionable as well.  This is clearly one of the worst defenses in the NFL in its current state.

Aaron Rodgers is getting a lot of hype for throwing 4 TD's against the Jets, but the Jets have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season.  He was held in check by a much more capable Seahawks defense last week in a 31-17 home loss.  And the numbers are just atrocious for the Steelers overall.  They are averaging 269 yards per game and 5.1 per play on offense and allowing 394.5 yards per game and 6.4 per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 125.5 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play against two mediocre to bad teams in the Jets and Seahawks.

The Patriots bounced back nicely from a 20-13 home loss to the Raiders in Week 1 with a 33-27 road win at Miami in Week 2.  They have their franchise QB in Drake Maye, who went 19-of-23 passing for 220 yards and 2 TD against the Dolphins last week.  Mike Vrabel was the perfect hire for them to get the most out of this young team.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -18

The USC Trojans went 7-6 last season with five of their losses coming by 1, 3, 3, 5 and 7 points.  That's how close they were to being a 12-1 team.  Now Lincoln Riley returns 16 starters and one of the most experienced teams in the country.  The Trojans are flying under the radar this season as a sleeper to win the Big Ten.

The Trojans are off and running blasting Missouri State 73-13 as 35.5-point favorites in Week 1, cruising to a 59-20 win as 29-point favorites over Georgia Southern in Week 2, and winning 33-17 at Purdue as 20.5-point favorites in their Big Ten opener on the road in Week 3.  Now the Trojans get to play their conference home opener against Michigan State Saturday night, and I expect it to be a blowout win in their favor.

Jordan Maiava finished strong last season and is off to a great start this season and a sleeper to win the Heisman Trophy.  Maiava is completing 68.6% of his passes for 989 yards and 6 TD, while also rushing for a pair of scores on the ground.  USC has the top numbers in the country offensively scoring 55.0 points per game, averaging 604.3 yards per game and 9.7 yards per play.

Lincoln Riley has this offense humming per usual, while former UCLA defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn has made a huge impact.  The Trojans have one of the most improved defenses in the country under Lynn's guidance.  They allow 16.7 points per game, 317.7 yards per game and 4.7 per play.  They are outgaining opponents by a whopping 5.0 yards per play, which is the best mark in the country.

This is equally a fade of Michigan State due to all their injuries right now.  They have cluster injuries at receiver and at the skill positions in general.  The Spartans are 0-3 ATS this season.  They beat Western Michigan 23-6, the same WMU team that just lost 38-0 to Illinois last week.  They beat Boston College 42-40 (OT) at home, the same Boston College team that just got upset at Stanford as double-digits favorites last week.  And their 41-24 win over Youngstown State as 24-point favorites last week was pretty lackluster.

The spot is a terrible one for the Spartans.  They have to travel clear out West for a 11:00 PM EST start time and will be a tired team by the 2H not only trying to tame this USC offense, but also with the fact that they aren't used to playing games this late.  This game will finish around 2:30 AM EST.  

We've seen several teams from the midwest and the East struggle in the 2H of these late-night games already this season.  Minnesota lost outright at Cal, Georgia Southern lost 42-14 as favorites at Fresno State, and Boston College was upset as a double-digit favorite at Stanford.  The Spartans will suffer the same fate of those three teams as the Trojans continue to pour it on in the 2H and pull away for a comfortable win and cover.  Bet USC Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor ML -125

Baylor is loaded this season with 18 returning starters including QB Sawyer Robinson, one of the best QB's in the country.  The Bears went 6-0 in their final six games last season before losing to LSU in the bowl game, so their only two losses in their last nine games are to SEC teams.  And that loss to Auburn was very misleading, as was the loss to LSU.  They outgained LSU 507 to 427.

Baylor also outgained Auburn 483 to 415 for the game and 6.7 to 6.0 yards per play.  The difference was Auburn had a KO return TD, and Baylor was stopped on downs twice inside the 10-yard line.  Baylor bounced back from that loss to Auburn with a 48-45 (OT) road win at SMU, which was a 12-team playoff participant last season.  The Bears outgained the Mustangs 601 to 458, or by 143 total yards.

Speaking of 12-team playoff participants.  Arizona State is one of the most overrated teams in the country after a dream season last year that saw them win the Big 12 Championship and give Texas all they could handle in the 12-team playoff.  The Sun Devils pulled off the miracle, finishing 1st after being picked to finish last in the Big 12.  Now I think they will regress and finish middle of the pack this season.

While the Sun Devils return 17 starters and will be good again, they lose their heart and soul in RB Cam Skattebo, who put the team on his shoulders all season last year.  Skattebo rushed for 1,711 yards and 21 TD, while also catching 45 balls for 605 yards and three scores.  He made life much easier on QB Sam Leavitt, who will have to shoulder much more of the load this season and I don't think he's ready for it.

The Sun Devils got off to an underwhelming start beating FCS Northern Arizona 38-19 as 29.5-point favorites and not even coming close to covering the spread.  They only had one more first down than Northern Arizona and only outgained them by 129 yards.

I released my 25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +7 against Arizona State two weeks ago.  The Bulldogs jumped out to a 17-0 lead and pulled off the outright upset, 24-21.  That was a 2-10 Mississippi State team last season.  The Bulldogs outgained the Sun Devils 5.4 to 4.5 yards per play.

I faded Arizona State again last week and came up just agonizingly short.  The Sun Devils covered by 0.5 points beating Texas State 34-15 as 18.5-point home favorites only after the Bobcats failed on a pair of 2-point conversion attempts instead of kicking the XP.  The Sun Devils were underwhelming again, only outgaining the Bobcats by 130 total yards and the first downs were even at 21 apiece.

I'm going back to the well here and taking Baylor ML -125 as my 25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR.  I'm very high on Baylor this season and very low on Arizona State.  This will be a great atmosphere for a night game at 7:30 EST on FOX in Waco for the Bears' Big 12 opener.  They are the better team, and their home-field advantage at night isn't being factored in enough to the line.

Baylor can stack the box to stop the run because ASU has no receivers outside Tyson that are a threat.  They can bracket coverage his way as well.  The key here is Baylor is going to score at will taking advantage of Arizona State's weak secondary.  Robertson has already thrown for 1,070 yards and 10 TD in three games and he is a Heisman Trophy sleeper.  He is not only the best QB in the Big 12, but one of the best in the country in my opinion.  I trust him and the Bears to get the job done tonight.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians +106 (Game 2)

The Cleveland Guardians are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the hapless Kansas City Royals today.

The Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention and they are just ready for this season to be over.  You can tell by their play here down the stretch, going 4-13 in their last 17 games overall.  Which team is going to be more motivated to play a Saturday double-header? It's clearly the Guardians.

The Guardians have the 4th-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.47 ERA on the season.  The Twins have the 5th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.70 ERA on the season, and they have been even worse since the All-Star Break.  The Guardians are better equipped to handle a double-header with the better bullpen.

Logan Allen has owned the Twins, going 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in four career starts against them.  Bailey Ober is 5-8 with a 5.12 ERA in 25 starts this season.  Ober allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings in his last start against Cleveland on August 2nd.  Bet the Guardians in Game 2 Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox +150

The San Diego Padres have nothing to play for down the stretch and are playing like it.  The Padres are pretty much locked in to the No. 5 seed in the National League.  They are 5 games clear in the wild card, and 4 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games coming in and are really struggling at the plate, scoring 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last 10 games overall.

Yu Darvish is working is way back from injury for the Padres and it has not gone well for him.  He has allowed 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 6.75 ERA during this stretch.

Yoendrys Gomez has held his own as a starter for the White Sox this season, going 2-1 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in seven starts with 36 K's in 33 2/3 innings.  I expect him to hold this struggling San Diego lineup in check tonight.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +141

The Texas Rangers are 5 games out of the wild card with 8 games to go and trailing 3 teams.  Even if they go 8-0 they aren't going to make the playoffs.  They know their season is over, and they are playing like it going 0-5 in their last five games overall.  I don't expect them to show up today, either.

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season going 8-1 in their last nine games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in all eight wins.  They will continue to play hard to close out the season, and that makes this a great value play on the Marlins as big road underdogs to the lifeless Rangers tonight.

Adam Mazur is coming off one of his best starts of the the season pitching 6 innings without allowing an earned run to the Tigers.  Jack Leiter is 9-9 with a 3.82 ERA in 27 starts for the Rangers in his first full season as a starting and is starting to wear down here down the stretch.  Bet the Marlins Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tulane +12

Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is one of the most underrated in the country.  He led Troy to a 23-4 record in two seasons there, and he went 9-5 in his first season at Tulane and had the Green Wave in the AAC Championship Game.  He has 14 starters back from that team and added in one of the best transfer QB's in the country in Jake Retzlaff from BYU.

Tulane beat Northwestern 23-3 as 4.5-point favorites in Week 1, beat South Alabama 33-31 as 13.5-point road favorites in Week 2, and topped Duke 34-27 as 1.5-point favorites last week.  Retzlaff is hitting on all cylinders already throwing for 522 yards and 2 TD, while rushing for 288 yards and 6 scores as a great dual-threat.  The Green Wave have 12-team playoff aspirations, and an upset win at Ole Miss would look real good on their resume.

While Tulane will be max motivated for a 3rd win over a Power 4 team this season, Ole Miss is in the ultimate flat spot.  The Rebels are coming off consecutive narrow SEC wins by 7 at Kentucky and by 6 at home against Arkansas, and they have an even bigger game on deck next week against LSU that has huge SEC title implications.  This is the game they let down, and that isn't being factored into the line enough.

Ole Miss should have been a playoff team last season.  But the Rebels are nowhwere near as talented or as experienced as that team.  The loss of QB Jaxson Dart and all of their top playmakers is huge on offense, but the bigger losses are on defense where only one starter returns and they lose 11 of their top 13 tacklers.  What was one of the best defenses in the country last season is now one of the worst in the SEC.

Ole Miss allowed 23 points and 359 yards to a Kentucky offense that is one of the worst in the SEC.  The Wildcats also slowed the game down and milked the clock on every snap in their 30-23 home loss to Ole Miss.  The Rebels beat Arkansas 41-35 at home last week, but they probably didn't deserve to win as they allowed 526 total yards to the Razorbacks and were outgained by 45 total yards.

Lane Kiffin has a QB problem on his hands, too.  Trinidad Chambliss looked good against Arkansas last week, but it appears Kiffin is going back to sophomore Austin Simmons who didn't start due to an ankle injury, but then came in after Chambliss got injured.  He re-aggravated the ankle injury and was noticeably limping.  Simmons won't be nearly as mobile if he does get the call, which will limit the offense's potential.  Retzlaff and this Tulane offense are capable of matching Ole Miss score for score just like Arkansas did.  Bet Tulane Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Guardians +109 (Game 1)

The Cleveland Guardians are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the hapless Kansas City Royals today.

The Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention and they are just ready for this season to be over.  You can tell by their play here down the stretch, going 4-13 in their last 17 games overall.  Which team is going to be more motivated to play a Saturday double-header? It's clearly the Guardians.

Slade Ceconni has come up clutch here down the stretch allowing just 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 13 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  This will be his first career start against the Twins, so he has the element of surprise working in his favor.  The Guardians have the 4th-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.47 ERA on the season.

Joe Ryan has been rocked for a 7.36 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 18 earned runs in 22 innings.  The Guardians are 5-0 in their last five games against Ryan.  The Twins have the 5th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.70 ERA on the season, and they have been even worse since the All-Star Break.  Bet the Guardians in Game 1 Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on UAB +40

This is the ultimate letdown spot for Tennessee.  The Vols had Georgia by the balls last week and let them off the hook.  They allowed the game-tying TD and 2-point conversion in the final minutes, then missed a 43-yard FG for the win at the buzzer.  They went on to lose 44-41 in OT.

I expect Tennessee to be flat as a pancake this week against UAB.  Teams coming off a loss to a Top 15 team when favored by 30 points more more the next week have covered the spread just 29% of the time the last 30 years!  And that wasn't just a Top 15 loss, it was a loss to a rival that had had their number for years.

UAB has the offensive firepower to stay within this inflated number.  UAB's offense took off once Jalen Kitna took over at QB for Jacob Zeno after a 41-18 loss to Navy last year.  The Blazers averaged 33.4 points per game over their final five games last season.  Kitna completed 62% of his passes for 2,209 yards and a 17-to-11 TD/INT ratio in eight starts last season.

The Blazers are averaging 35.7 points per game, 454.7 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play this season.  Kitna is completing 70% of his passes for 892 yards and 6 TD in three games.  Jevon Jackson has rushed for 277 yards and 6.0 per carry.  Millner and Hooks have combined for 33 receptions, 497 yards and 5 TD receiving.

Tennessee has a lot of injuries on defense right now missing three starters in NG Jaxson Moi, CB Rickey Gibson II and CB Jermod McCoy.  That explains why they gave up 26 points and 377 yards to Syracuse and 44 points and 503 yards to Georgia.  UAB will be able to keep coming and scoring against this overrated Tennessee defense.  Bet UAB Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UAB/Tennessee OVER 68.5

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers allowed 34.3 points per game last season.  They return just four starters on D and lose nine of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago.  They are going to be forced to try and win shootouts again this season, and that was on display in Week 1.

UAB beat Alabama State 52-42 as 21-point favorites with a total of just 53.5.  They sailed over that total by 40.5 points finishing with 94 combined points.  They gained 520 yards and 9.0 yards per play while allowing 514 yards and 7.9 per play.

UAB's offense took off once Jalen Kitna took over at QB for Jacob Zeno after a 41-18 loss to Navy.  The Blazers averaged 33.4 points per game over their final five games last season.  Kitna completed 62% of his passes for 2,209 yards and a 17-to-11 TD/INT ratio in eight starts last season.  He went 18-of-23 passing for 247 yards and 2 TD against Alabama State and is now comfortable in Trent Dilfer's system.

Two weeks ago, UAB lost 38-24 at Navy finishing with 62 combined points and going OVER the 59-point closing total.  That's a Navy team that likes to slow the game down too, so to get to 62 with Navy was impressive.   Kitna threw for 304 yards and 2 TD with 2 INT in the loss.   They allowed 463 total yards to the Midshipmen.

Last week, UAB beat Akron 31-28 for 59 combined points finishing over the closing total of 58.5.  Keep in mind Akron was shut out in its previous two games and then hung 28 points and 441 total yards on this UAB defense, which is terrible again this season allowing 36 points per game, 472.7 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play thus far against suspect competition.

Offensively, the Blazers are averaging 35.7 points per game, 454.7 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play this season.  Kitna is completing 70% of his passes for 892 yards and 6 TD in three games.  Jevon Jackson has rushed for 277 yards and 6.0 per carry.  Millner and Hooks have combined for 33 receptions, 497 yards and 5 TD receiving.

Tennessee has a lot of injuries on defense right now missing three starters in NG Jaxson Moi, CB Rickey Gibson II and CB Jermod McCoy.  That explains why they gave up 26 points and 377 yards to Syracuse and 44 points and 503 yards to Georgia.  UAB will be able to keep coming and scoring against this overrated Tennessee defense.  

The Vols do have an electric offensive this season with a big upgrade at QB in Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar.  They are averaging 52.7 points per game, 568.7 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play.  They play at the 3rd-fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 20.3 seconds.  UAB also plays fast ranking 41st at 24.9 seconds per snap.  This feels like a 55-28 win for the Vols sailing OVER this 68.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Syracuse/Clemson OVER 55

Syracuse is a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Fran Brown.  Syracuse and its opponents combined for 55 or more points in 10 of 13 games last season.  That was with Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord at QB after everyone left him for dead, and now Brown is working his magic again with Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli this season.

Angeli leads a Syracuse offense that is putting up 39.7 points per game, 486.7 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play despite playing a pretty tough schedule that has included Tennessee and UConn.  He is completing 64% of his passes for 1,108 yards with 8 TD in three games thus far.  Syracuse is playing at the 5th-fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 20.9 seconds.

That leaves their soft defense a little exposed.  The Orange are allowing 29.7 points per game, 443 yard per game and 5.8 yards per play this season.  They will have a hard time getting stops consistently just as they did a year ago when they allowed 29.2 points per game.

Clemson is due for an offensive breakout to say the least.  The Tigers have played a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in LSU, Georgia Tech and Troy.  I would argue this Syracuse defense is worse than all three and it's not really close.  Cade Klubnik has been without LT Tristan Leigh and star WR Antonio Williams this season, but both are expected to make their debuts against Syracuse this week.

The books have set this total too low due to Clemson going under the total in three straight to start the season.  We'll take advantage and 'buy low' on a Clemson over here as they should get their offense cooking this week with Leigh and Williams back, and I think Syracuse can match them score for score in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Utah FOX No-Brainer on Utah -3

Texas Tech received a lot of hype in the offseason with how much money they spent in the transfer portal.  While there's no question they upgraded their talent, I think the hype is too much after three blowouts against the softest schedule on the country.  The Red Raiders have played the 254th-ranked schedule of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State.

Utah did not get the hype that Texas Tech did this offseason, but they were the team deserving of it.  The Utes were picked by the majority to win the Big 12 last season.  They disappointed going 5-7, but they never had a QB as Cameron Rising couldn't stay healthy and derailed their season.

Now the Utes have one of their best QB's in program history in New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier, who threw for 2,768 yards and rushed for 1,166 yards and 19 TD last year for the Lobos.  Dampier is among 17 starters back for the Utes this season.

Utah has been dominant against a much tougher schedule than that of Texas Tech.  The Utes beat UCLA 43-10 as 6.5-point road favorites, beat Cal Poly 63-9 as 42.5-point home favorites and topped Wyoming 31-6 as 24-point road favorites.  Utah is averaging 517.3 yards per game and 6.5 per play on offense and allowing 224.3 yards per game and 4.1 per play on defense.

Dampier is a dark horse to win the Heisman Trophy this season.  He has thrown for 628 yards and 7 TD while also rushing for 198 yards and a score in three games despite the blowout nature of all three games.  The Utes have more ways to beat you offensively, and they have the better defense in this matchup.  They are better at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Texas Tech is a pass-happy offense that will struggle to run the football at times this season, and being one-dimensional isn't going to work.  The Red Raiders managed just 71 rushing yards on 38 carries against Oregon State last week, averaging just 1.9 yards per carry.  I expect this Utah defense to force a couple mistakes from Behren Morton and that to be a big difference in the game.  This is the ultimate step up in class on the road in a hostile environment for the Red Raiders, and I expect them to fall on their faces.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -7

Memphis is overvalued after a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season against the 134th-ranked schedule in the country.  They beat FCS Chattanooga 45-10 as 30.5-point favorites.  That's the same Chattanooga team that went on to lose 45-17 to Tennessee Tech.

Memphis beat Georgia Tech 38-16 as 14.5-point road favorites in Week 2.  That's the same Georgia State team that lost 63-7 to Ole Miss, which is the same Ole Miss team that Arkansas nearly upset on the road last week.  And they beat Troy 28-7, which lost starting QB Goose Crowder on the opening drive to injury, and the drop off to the backup was enormous.  Kilcrease finished 10-of-29 for 65 yards and an INT in Crowder's place.

I can't say I'm 100% sure how good Memphis is, but I can say 100% sure they aren't as good as their record and margins of victory would indicate due to the circumstances and softness of their schedule.  I don't like Nevada transfer QB Brendon Lewis, who is a better runner than he is a thrower, which isn't what this Memphis offense is known for.  They are known for having great pocket passers through the years.

This might be Ryan Silverfield's worst team since going 7-6 in 2022.  They only brought back 9 starters this season and lost 14 of their top 15 tacklers on D, each of their top 4 receivers, and leading rusher Mario Anderson who has 1,362 yards and 18 TD last season.  Silverfield had to hit the transfer portal, and I'm just not high on all the replacements.

Arkansas has been impressive beating Alabama A&M 52-7 and Arkansas State 56-14, which is the same Arkansas State team that just took Iowa State to the wire last week.  The Razorbacks had Ole Miss on the ropes last week in a 41-35 road loss, and they outgained the Rebels 526 to 481 for the game.

The Razorbacks boast an explosive offense under 2nd-year coordinator Bobby Petrino, and I just don't think Memphis has the firepower to keep up.  QB Taylen Green is completing 68.5% of his passes for 866 yards and 11 TD, while also rushing for 307 yards and 2 TD making him one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  He will have a field day against this Memphis defense and Saturday to lead the Razorbacks to a win by more than a TD.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Syracuse +17.5

The books have Clemson power rated too highly after the Tigers came into the season as one of the top ranked teams in the country.  Even after a lackluster 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS start this season, the Tigers are still too big of favorites against Syracuse this week.

Clemson lost 17-10 outright as 5-point home favorites to LSU in Week 1.  They were held to 261 total yards and outgained by 93 yards.  They only beat Troy 27-16 at home as 30-point favorites and only outgained the Trojans by 15 yards.  And last week they lost 24-21 as 3-point favorites at Georgia Tech.  Their offense has been broken, and their defense isn't as good as it was expected to be.

Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli leads a Syracuse offense that is putting up 39.7 points per game, 486.7 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play despite playing a pretty tough schedule that has included Tennessee and UConn.  He is completing 64% of his passes for 1,108 yards with 8 TD in three games thus far.  Syracuse is playing at the 5th-fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 20.9 seconds.

The 19-point loss to Tennessee in the opener doesn't look too bad now when you consider Tennessee should have beaten Georgia last week.  I have Tennessee power-rated a lot higher than Clemson right now.  They responded with a 27-20 wi over UConn and a 66-24 beat down of Colgate.  They should still be fresh for this game against Clemson after that blowout of Colgate last week.

I like Syracuse head coach Fran Brown.  He guided Syracuse to a 10-3 season in his first year on the job last year.  He is doing a tremendous job of recruiting and getting the most out of his players.  I trust that he'll have the answer for Clemson, and least the offense should be able to match the Tigers score for score in this one to stay within the 17.5-point spread.  Speaking of that spread, Brown referred to it in the media and will have his players motivated knowing they are this big of underdogs.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -118

The Arizona Diamondbacks are just 2 games back of the New York Mets for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They have a lot to play for here down the stretch, while the Philadelphia Phillies have every reason to just go through the motions and not care.

The Phillies have already clinched the NL East, and they are 5.5 games ahead of the Dodgers for the 2nd seed in the National League with 9 games to go.  They are basically locked into the No. 2 seed, which is big because the top 2 seeds get a bye into the divisional round.  They really have nothing to play for.

It looks like it's going to be Taijuan Walker for the Phillies, but I'm OK with this bet if it's Walker Buehler because both are gas cans.  Walker has allowed 4 earned runs or more in four consecutive starts.  Buehler is 8-7 with a 5.29 ERA in 23 starts.

I'll gladly back Ryne Nelson, who has been dominant at home this season for the Diamondbacks.  Nelson is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 10 starts and six relief appearances at home this season.  Nelson has a 2.40 ERA in his last five starts while allowing a total of 8 earned runs in 30 innings.  He held the Phillies to 2 earned runs and 4 base runners with 9 K's in 7 1/3 innings in his last start against them.  Bet the Diamondbacks Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians +111

The Cleveland Guardians are 12-1 in their last 13 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the hapless Kansas City Royals today.

The Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention and they are just ready for this season to be over.  You can tell by their play here down the stretch, going 4-12 in their last 16 games overall.

Parker Messick has come up clutch for the Guardians down the stretch.  He is 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA in five starts this season.  This will be his first start against the Twins, and he will have the element of surprise working in his favor.

Pablo Lopez is working his way back from injury for the Twins and will be on a pitch count as they don't want to push him too hard here down the stretch.  Lopez is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in three career home starts against Cleveland, allowing 12 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

20* Iowa/Rutgers Big Ten No-Brainer on OVER 45

Rutgers has turned into a dead nuts OVER team.  The Scarlet Knights are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 45 or more combined points in all 11 games, making for a 10-0-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 45-point total.  They are combining with their opponents to average a whopping 64.1 points per game in those 11 games with 55 or more combined points in nine of them.  Simply put, this total of 45 is too low for a game involving Rutgers right now.

The Scarlet Knights have now scored at least 31 points in seven consecutive games dating back to last season.  That includes games against quality defenses in Kansas State, Michigan State and Illinois.  They went for 65 combined points with Ohio in a 34-31 win, 62 with Miami Ohio in a 45-17 win and 70 with Norfolk State in a 60-10 win to open this season.

The Sacarlet Knights are averaging 46.3 points per game, 461 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play thus far this season.  They have one of their best QB's in program history in Athan Kaliakmanis, who is completing 72.9% of his passes averaging 9.6 per attempt with a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  The talent at the receiver position is elite too with Duff, Strong and Sheffield all having over 200 yards receiving each through three games.

But Rutgers is no longer an elite defensive team under Greg Schiano.  Despite the soft schedule, the Scarlet Knights are allowing 6.6 yards per play this season.  Ohio went up and down the field on them finishing with 440 total yards and easily could have pulled off the upset.

Iowa is trying to get more dynamic on offense this season.  The Hawkeyes finally have a QB upgrade in South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski, who threw for over 10,000 yards in his 55 starts for the Jack Rabbits.  It was going to take him some time to gel with his new teammates in a new system, but I think this is his breakout game after opening things up in a 47-7 win over UMass last week.

Iowa's defense really hasn't been tested yet.  Albany and UMass offered little, and Iowa State vs. Iowa is always a low-scoring rivalry game with how familiar these teams are with one another.  I think this Rutgers offense is the best that Iowa has faced this season and that will show.  But I think Gronowki and company can keep up in a shootout, which we don't need much of one with a total of just 45 points.  The atmosphere for this Friday night game will be a good one for offense, too, and the forecast looks perfect for a shootout with no wind and temps in the 70's.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Dolphins/Bills AFC East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 49.5

This game has points and OVER written all over it.  Both offenses are way ahead of the defenses for both teams largely due to injuries.  I expect the Bills and Dolphins to play in a shootout tonight as a result.

The Dolphins are without 5 cornerbacks and starting safety Ifeatu Melifonwu.  That includes starting CB Storm Duck.  It's no surprise the Dolphins have allowed 33 points to the Colts and 33 points to the Patriots in their first two games.  The Bills will go for 33-plus in this one as well.

While the Bills are thriving on offense because they are fully healthy, scoring 41 points against the Ravens and 30 points against the Jets, their defense is far from Super Bowl caliber.  They allowed 40 points and 432 total yards to the Ravens.

Last week, the Bills knocked Justin Fields out of the game with a concussion, and the Jets were lost on offense.  They play a much more competent offense in the Dolphins this week that will exploit all their holes.  The Bills are without DT Ed Oliver and LB Matt Milano, and Oliver's top two backups are both out as well.  Milano's backup Shaq Thompson is questionable, and NB Taron Johnson is questionable with a plethora of injuries in the secondary.

The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings between the Dolphins and Bills with 57 or more combined points in four of those six meetings.  The Bills have scored at least 30 points in five of their last six meetings with the Dolphins, and I have no doubt they will top that number again and the Dolphins will get enough points to sail OVER this 49.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -111

The Seattle Mariners have a lot to pay for right now.  They are 0.5 games behind he Houston Astros for 1st place in the AL West.  The Mariners have come up absolutely clutch here down the stretch going 10-1 in their last 11 games overall to put themselves in this position.  

The Royals are 7 games out of the wild card with 10 games left and dead in the water.  They are playing like it going 3-7 in their last 10 games overall.

Luis Castillo is 9-8 with a 3.76 ERA in 30 starts for the Mariners this season.  He'll be opposed by Stephen Kolek, who is 2-3 with a 6.55 ERA in six home starts this season, allowing 24 earned runs in 33 innings.  Kolek allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings in his last start against Seattle this season.  Bet the Mariners Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +204

The Cleveland Guardians are 11-1 in their last 12 games overall to pull within 2.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as big underdogs to the Detroit Tigers today.

The Tigers are basically stuck where they're at as they are going to win the AL Central, but they are 4 games behind the Blue Jays and 1.5 games ahead of the Astros for the 2nd seed in the American League.  Basically, they are playing with zero sense of urgency right now, which is evidenced by going 7-14 in their last 21 games overall.

Tarik Skubal got injured in his last start and it's a big reason it was one of his worst starts of the season, allowing 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 3 1/3 innings of a 8-2 loss to the lowly Marlins.  I don't expect him to be 100% today, and I think he is overvalued as a result.

Tanner Bibee is bringing his best stuff here down the stretch allowing just 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 15 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  Bibee has owned the Tigers, allowing just 2 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Dodgers on OVER 7.5

The Phillies are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all eight games.  This total of 7.5 is way too low for a game involving the Phillies right now.  They have scored at least 6 runs in seven of their last eight games overall.  The Dodgers are also raking scoring 5 runs or more in six of their last seven games overall.

Jesus Luzardo has a 4.03 ERA in 30 starts this season and is a weak link in this Philadelphia rotation.  Blake Snell gets too much respect from the books.  He is 1-3 with a 4.73 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Seattle Mariners +106

The Seattle Mariners have a lot to pay for right now.  They are 0.5 games ahead of the Houston Astros for 1st place in the AL West.  The Mariners have come up absolutely clutch here down the stretch going 10-0 in their last 10 games overall to put themselves in this position.

I expect them to make it 11 in a row today against a dead Royals team that is 7 games out of the wild card and just ready for the season to be over at this point.  The Royals are 2-7 in their last nine games overall.

The Mariners are 4-0 in Bryce Millers last four starts.  He has allowed 8 earned runs in 17 innings with 17 K's in his last three starts.  But this is more of a fade of Cole Ragans, who will be making his first start since June 5th and will be on a pitch count.  Ragans is 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA in 10 starts this season.  Bet the Mariners Wednesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mariners/Royals OVER 8.5

Two gas can starting pitchers go tonight with temps in the 80's so the ball should be flying out again tonight.  The Mariners beat the Royals 12-5 last night and it should be another slug fest tonight.

Ragans is 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA in 10 starts this season. He will be making his first start since June 5th so he will be on a pitch count.  The Mariners are capable of covering this total on their own again.  They have scored 4 runs or more in nine of their 10 games during their current 10-game winning streak, including 10 runs or more four times.

Bryce Miller is 4-5 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 15 starts for the Mariners this season.  Miller has allowed 10 earned runs in 9 innings in two career starts against Kansas City.  The Royals have scored 21 runs in their last three games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +136

The Cleveland Guardians are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall to pull within 2.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the Detroit Tigers tonight.

The Tigers are basically stuck where they're at as they are going to win the AL Central, but they are 4 games behind the Blue Jays and 2 games ahead of the Mariners for the 2nd seed in the American League.  Basically, they are playing with zero sense of urgency right now, going 7-13 in their last 20 games overall.

The Guardians have a big advantage on the mound tonight and should not be underdogs as a result.  Gavin Williams is 10-5 with a 3.16 ERA in 29 starts for the Guardians this season.  He is 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA in his last 10 starts.  Williams has owned the Tigers with a 1.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Jack Flaherty is 8-13 with a 4.69 ERA in 29 starts this season.  Flaherty is 3-4 with a 4.76 ERA in his last 10 starts.  He and the Tigers are getting way too much respect tonight.  Bet the Guardians Wednesday.

20* Phillies/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

The Phillies are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all seven games.  This total of 7.5 is way too low for a game involving the Phillies right now.  They have scored at least 6 runs in six of their last seven games overall.  The Dodgers are also raking scoring 5 runs or more in five of their last six games overall.

Cristopher Sanchez allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 2/3 innings in a 8-7 win over the Dodgers in his lone start against them this season.  Shohei Ohtani won't go deep in this game for the Dodgers, so this will be mostly a bullpen game for them.  Ohtani has allowed 10 earned runs in 17 innings in his last four starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -130

The Seattle Mariners have a lot to pay for right now.  They are 0.5 games ahead of the Houston Astros for 1st place in the AL West.  The Mariners have come up absolutely clutch here down the stretch going 9-0 in their last nine games overall to put themselves in this position.

I expect them to make it 10 in a row today against a dead Royals team that is 6.5 games out of the wild card and just ready for the season to be over at this point.  The Royals are 2-6 in their last eight games overall.

Logan Gilbert has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts while lasting at least 6 innings in three of them.  Gilbert has allowed just 5 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Royals.  Michael Wacha allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of a 6-2 loss to the Mariners in his lone start against them this season.  Bet the Mariners Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +126

The Cleveland Guardians are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall to pull within 3 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the Detroit Tigers tonight.

The Tigers are basically stuck where they're at as they are going to win the AL Central, but they are 3 games behind the Blue Jays and 3 games ahead of the Mariners for the 2nd seed in the American League.  Basically, they are playing with zero sense of urgency right now, going 7-12 in their last 19 games overall.

Joey Cantillo has been dominant in his last four starts for the Guardians.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings for a 1.09 ERA in those four starts.  This will be his first career start against the Tigers, so he will have the element of surprise working in his favor.

Casey Mize has been struggling for a couple months now for the Tigers.  Mize has posted a 6.07 ERA in his last 10 starts while allowing 31 earned runs in 46 innings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Guardians Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees -1.5 (-117)

The Minnesota Twins have been officially eliminated from playoff contention and are just ready for their season to be over.  They are playing like it as well going 3-10 in their last 13 games overall.  The New York Yankees have a lot more to play for not only trying to clinch a playoff spot, but also still alive in the AL East sitting 4 games behind the Blue Jays for 1st place with a great chance to make up some ground this series.

The Yankees have a big advantage on the mound that should have them winning this game by multiple runs tonight.  Carlos Rodon is 16-8 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 30 starts for the Yankees this season.  Rodon has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts.  He owns the Twins, going 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in his last three starts against them, allowing 4 earned runs and 12 base runners in 19 innings.

Simeon Woods-Richardson is 6-4 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  He is 3-3 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 11 night starts this season.  He has a 6.75 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 3 earned runs or more in four of them and 6 homers in 21 1/3 innings.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Rays OVER 8.5

Triple-A Park George M. Steinbrenner Field has proven to be hitter-friendly this season largely due to it being outdoors in hot weather.  It will be hot again today with temps in the 80's, and the ball should be flying out.

The Blue Jays rank 4th in baseball scoring 5.03 runs per game.  The Rays rank 13th scoring 4.48 runs per game, including 4.64 runs per game at home.  This total of 8.5 is too short with these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers.

Trey Yesavage will be making his MLB debut for the Blue Jays.  He has good K numbers in the minors, but control has been an issue for him, and the Rays are very patient at the plate.  I don't expect his first career start to go very well.

The Blue Jays are capable of covering this total on their own against Joe Boyle, who is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in six starts and four relief appearances this season.  Boyle is 0-3 with a 9.14 ERA and 1.89 WHIP at night, allowing 22 earned runs and 6 homers in 21 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bucs/Texans ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -2.5

I'll gladly back the desperate 0-1 team playing the fat and happy 1-0 team in this matchup between the Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Bucs.  The Texans lost a coin flip game on the road to the Rams last week, while the Bucs won a coin flip game against the Falcons on the road last week.

The Bucs had no business beating the Falcons 23-20 last week.  The Falcons outgained them 358 to 260 for the game and 5.1 to 4.7 yards per play.  But Koo missed a pair of FG's including the one that would have tied it and forced OT.  The Bucs have been getting lucky in close games for two straight years now.

It's clear to me Baker Mayfield misses offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who left to become the Jaguars head coach.  Mayfield completed just 53.1% of his passes for 167 yards while averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt against a pretty weak Falcons defense last week.  

Now he takes a big step up in class here against a Houston defense that many feel is the best in the NFL.  The Texans held the Rams to 14 points and 296 total yards on the road last week.  The problem was they couldn't capitalize on trips deep in Rams territory settling for three FG's and turning it over as they were going in for the game-winning score.  I expect their offense to be much better at home this week.

I expect Houston's defense to lead the way though against a very banged up Bucs offense.  The Bucs will be without WR Chris Godwin Jr., LT Tristan Wirfs, WR Jalen McMillan and they could be without RT Luke Goedeke, who is questionable.  These injuries will make life that much harder on going up against this defense that just doesn't have any weaknesses.  I have no doubt the Texans win this game by 3 points or more in their home opener.  Bet the Texans Monday.

15* Eagles/Chiefs Super Bowl Rematch on Philadelphia ML -114

The Kansas City Chiefs will want revenge on the Philadelphia Eagles after getting embarrassed by them in the Super Bowl.  The problem is they don't have the horses to get that revenge, and the Eagles remain the most talented team in the NFL if it's not the Baltimore Ravens.  I backed the Eagles with success in the Super Bowl, and I'm backing them again for a number of reasons in the rematch.

The Chiefs struggle with defenses that can get pressure without blitzing, which is exactly what the Eagles did to them in the Super Bowl.  The Eagles led 40-6 before calling off the dogs and allowing a couple garbage TD's in the final three minutes with the game already decided in a 40-22 final.  They harassed Patrick Mahomes for four quarters without blitzing as he had one of the worst games of his career.

The Eagles held the Cowboys to 20 points in the opener despite losing one of their best players in DE Jalen Carter in the 1Q after spitting on Dak Prescott.  Carter is back this week, and the Eagles are at full strength defensively in the health department.  The Eagles are also at full strength on offense with the exception of Dallas Goedert, but they have a deep TE room and he won't be missed too much.  The Eagles scored touchdowns on each of their first three drives against the Cowboys, and a weather delay is the only thing that could slow them down.

The Chiefs are coming off a 27-21 loss to the Chargers in Brazil as 3-point favorites.  They allowed 394 total yards and 6.7 yards per play to the Chargers as their defense is clearly taking a step back this season.  But more concerning is the lack of weapons on offense after Xavier Worthy was lost to a shoulder injury after running into Travis Kelce, who is clearly on his last leg.

The Chiefs will be without WR Worthy, WR Rashee Rice and WR Jalen Royals for this one.  All three were expected to play big roles for the Chiefs this season.  Now they are down to Hollywood Brown, the elder JuJu Smith-Schuster and the even older Travis Kelce as Mahomes' main weapons.  He just can't have much success with this weak group of playmakers in their current form this week.

The Chiefs were 17-0 in their last 17 one-score games prior to finally having that streak end against the Chargers last week. I think their luck has run out, and they were clearly due some regression and it will continue to hit them time and time again this season, including in this game against a much superior Eagles squad that is favored for good reason on the road.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Chiefs UNDER 47

It's safe to say the Eagles and Chiefs are familiar with one another after playing in two of the past three Super Bowls.  They know each other inside and out, and I think that favors defense over offense.

This elite Philadelphia defense held the Chiefs to a total of 6 points with under 3 minutes remaining in the Super Bowl before calling off the dogs.  I think they will have similar success shutting down the Chiefs considering they are without WR Worthy, WR Rashee Rice and WR Jalen Royals for this one.  All three were expected to play big roles for the Chiefs this season.  Now they are down to Hollywood Brown, the elder JuJu Smith-Schuster and the even older Travis Kelce as Mahomes' main weapons.  He just can't have much success with this weak group of playmakers in their current form this week.

There are some concerns with this Philadelphia offense after being held to 24 points, 302 total yards and 5.0 per play against the Cowboys last week.  The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season without Micah Parsons.  The Eagles are going through a change in coordinators after losing Kellen Moore to the Saints.  The Chiefs should be able to hold them in check enough to keep this thing UNDER 47 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -106

The Cincinnati Reds trail the New York Mets by just 1.5 games for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They will be highly motivated for that reason, plus to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the A's.

Nick Lodolo is 8-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 5-5 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 14 road starts.  Luis Morales is coming off his worst start of the season for the A's, allowing 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 2/3 innings of a 7-0 home loss to the Red Sox on September 8th.  Bet the Reds Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Cubs OVER 7

The Cubs are capable of covering this total on their own today against Adrian Houser, who is 3-2 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in his last nine starts.  Houser has allowed 12 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.  He has allowed 7 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Chicago.

Shota Imanaga has allowed at least 3 earned runs in three consecutive starts and six of his last nine starts overall.  Imanaga has allowed at least one homer in six consecutive starts and a total of 13 homers in his last nine starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +105

The Arizona Diamondbacks are just 2 games behind the Mets for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They continue to battle, while the Minnesota Twins are just ready for their season to be over.  The Twins are 3-9 in their last 12 games overall.  Wrong team favored here.

Nabil Crismatt is 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in four starts and one relief appearance this season, allowing just 9 earned runs in 25 innings.  Bailey Ober is 5-7 with a 5.08 ERA in 24 starts for the Twins this season, including 2-3 with a 5.71 ERA in 13 day game starts.  Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +8.5

I grabbed the Jets +8.5 Sunday night and would still play it down to +7 as a 20*.  But at +6.5 or worse it would drop to a 15*.  This was the first play I released to my clients this week as I anticipated the line wouldn't last long.  This is the perfect spot to back the Jets.

I love backing 0-1 teams against 1-0 teams in Week 2.  But these teams should have their records reversed.  The Jets deserved to beat the Steelers in Week 1, while the Bills deserved to lose to the Ravens in Week 1.  Instead, the Jets lost by 2 while the Bills won by 1.  If these records were reversed this line wouldn't have been as high as it was to open.

The Jets outgained the Steelers 394 to 271 last week and 6.5 to 5.4 yards per play.  But they lost 34-32 despite dominating the box score.  The Bills miraculously scored three times late in the 4th quarter to overcome a 15-point deficit in a 41-40 win.  They were outgained 9.0 to 6.5 yards per play.  That's right, their defense gave up 9.0 yards per play for the game!

This Buffalo defense is going to be even worse off this week due to injuries.  They will be without starting DT Ed Oliver, while starting CB's Tre'Davious White and Taron Johnson, along with LB Shaq Thompson are all questionable.  This is a very poor Buffalo defense and I think it will be their undoing as the season progresses.

The Jets also have the element of surprise with Justin Fields at QB and new schemes on both offense and defense under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn.  Their offense made a very good Pittsburgh defense look mediocre last week with 394 yards and 6.5 yards per play against it.  Fields has always gotten a bad rap due to his lack of playmakers in Chicago and Pittsburgh prior.  He threw for 218 yards and a TD while also rushing for 48 yards and 2 TD against the Steelers.

The Bills are fat and happy after that comeback win over the Ravens on Sunday Night Football.  They won't be nearly as motivated or focused to beat the Jets this week.  They also used a lot of energy in that comeback win, and they are paying for it with a lot of injuries.  The Jets are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Bills in New York with all three games decided by 6 points or fewer.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee Titans +6

I love the spot for the Tennessee Titans this week.  They are a desperate 0-1 team playing a 1-0 team, and the 0-1 teams in this situation have been great bets in Week 2.  This is one of my favorite spots to back the Titans.

They had their chances last week on the road against Denver but a couple coaching blunders likely cost them a chance to win.  I think Brian Callahan will make the necessary corrections for his mistakes, and I actually though Cam Ward played reasonably well for a No. 1 pick making his first career start on the road in altitude in a hostile atmosphere in Denver.

The Titans lost 20-12 in Denver but this was a 1-point game late in the 4th quarter.  The Titans had their chances to tie it but Ward just kept barely missing his receivers on seem routes.  The timing was a little off, and I think they will work on that timing this week and be much better at home against the Rams.

One of the best kept secrets in the NFL is that the Titans have one of the best defenses in the league.  Despite going 3-14 last season, the Titans ranked 2nd in the NFL in total defense allowing 311.2 yards per game.  They just had terrible QB play on offense and the worst special teams in the NFL.  Both will be improved greatly this season with Ward at QB and more emphasis on special teams, plus the Titans will remain one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They made Bo Nix look like a rookie last week intercepting him twice and limiting the Broncos to 20 points, 317 total yards and 4.5 yards per play.

The Rams are coming off a hard-fought 14-9 win over the Texans at home in Week 1.  Matthew Stafford has been out with a back injury and barely practicing with the team, so it's no surprise the Rams aren't sharp offensively in the early going.  They managed just 296 yards and 14 points against the Texans, who were banged up on offense.

I think Stafford and company have an even tougher test this week going on the road for the first time in what will be a hostile atmosphere in Nashville with the anticipation for Cam Ward's home debut.  I also could see the Rams looking ahead to a huge game against the Eagles next week.  The Eagles knicked the Rams out of the playoffs and they obviously would love some revenge.  That game is much more important to them than this one.  It's also their first 10:00 AM body clock game of the season out East.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6

The Cowboys were 3-point favorites on the lookahead line in this game.  It has been adjusted up a full 3 points to Cowboys -6 now after one week of results.  I think it's time to 'buy low' on the Giants and 'sell high' on the Cowboys this week.

To put things into perspective, the Giants were 6-point road underdogs to the Commanders in their 21-6 loss last week.  So this line is saying that the Cowboys are equal to the Commanders.  That's just not the case as I have Washington power rated 3 points better than Dallas.

That's especially not the case now that the Cowboys traded away Micah Parson, and they will be without arguably their 2nd-best defensive player in CB DaRon Bland, who they just gave a shiny big new contract too right after trading Parsons.  The fact is this Dallas defense is going to be one of the worst in the NFL this season.  They rank dead last or 2nd to last in all major statistical categories defensively last season when Parsons was not on the field.

The Eagles were torching this Dallas defense scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions last week.  But then the rain delay happened, and it's almost like clockwork offenses slow down coming out of a delay, and it favors defense.  I know the Giants looked poor on offense last week, but that was Russell Wilson's first start with his new team against a solid Commanders defense.  Wilson and company will have a lot more success this week.

Unlike the Cowboys, the Giants have what should be one of the better defenses in the NFL this season.  They certainly have the best defensive line that can help mask their secondary.  They held the Commanders to 21 points last week which was pretty respectable considering what Jaden Daniels and company did to the rest of the league last year.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seahawks/Steelers OVER 40

The Pittsburgh Steelers go from being a dead nuts UNDER team the last few seasons under Mike Tomlin to what appears to be a dead nuts OVER team early this season.  But oddsmakers are still lining their totals like they are the same team they were last year.  Last week's total was set at 38, and both teams nearly covered it on their own in a 34-32 win by the Steelers over the Jets and 66 combined points.

The Steelers finally have a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers for the first time since Big Ten retired.  He also has a No. 1 receiver in the way of DK Metcalf, who is going to want some revenge against his former team in this one.  Rodgers threw 4 TD passes and found Metcalf 4 times for 83 yards in the win over the Jets.

More concerning is a Pittsburgh defense that allowed 32 points, 394 total yards and 6.5 yards per play to Justin Fields and a Jets offense that wasn't expected to be very good.  They went into the game missing some players, and now they are missing even more defenders heading into this game against Seattle.  They will be without three starters in CB Joey Porter Jr., SS DeShon Elliott and DE Derrick Harman.  They have a mediocre defense at best without these guys.

Sam Darnold and this Seattle offense should get on track this week after a tough showing against the 49ers, who have one of the most improved defenses in the league under Robert Saleh as their new defensive coordinator.  But the Seahawks also only ran 49 plays in the game compared to 71 for the 49ers, so they just couldn't get in a rhythm.  Look for Darnold and the running game to find their rhythm against Pittsburgh.

More concerning is a Seattle defense that gave up 384 yards and 5.4 yards per play to a 49ers offense that was missing so many key weapons.  They lost George Kittle early, and they were already without Brandon Aiyuk.  JuJuan Jennings suffered a shoulder injury, and Brock Purdy suffered toe and shoulder injuries that will keep him out for a few weeks.  Yet still the 49ers moved the ball up and down the field on this Seattle defense, which will be without top CB Devon Witherspoon for this game.  It doesn't take much to get to 40 points in today's NFL that is built for offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Giants/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5

The Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They have a very good offense with a healthy Dak Prescott, plenty of playmakers on the outside and a solid offensive line.  But they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They traded away Micah Parsons even after ranking as a bottom 2 defense in every major statistical category last season with him off the field.  They will be without arguably their 2nd-best defensive player in CB DaRon Bland, who they just gave a shiny big new contract too right after trading Parsons as he got injured last week.

The Eagles were torching this Dallas defense scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions last week.  But then the rain delay happened, and it's almost like clockwork offenses slow down coming out of a delay, and it favors defense.  I know the Giants looked poor on offense last week, but that was Russell Wilson's first start with his new team against a solid Commanders defense.  Wilson and company will have a lot more success this week.

The Giants were supposed to have an improved defense with one of the best defensive lines in the NFL this season, but that didn't show in Week 1.  The Giants allowed 432 total yards and 7.0 yards per play to the Commanders, who came back and looked atrocious on offense against Parsons and the Packers on Thursday.  The Cowboys will get their points, too.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Giants and Cowboys in Dallas.  They have combined for at least 47 points in all six meetings inside the Jerry Dome, which is perfect conditions for scoring.  This total of 44.5 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas State +15

Arizona State is one of the most overrated teams in the country after a dream season last year that saw them win the Big 12 Championship and give Texas all they could handle in the 12-team playoff.  The Sun Devils pulled off the miracle, finishing 1st after being picked to finish last in the Big 12.  Now I think they will regress and finish middle of the pack this season.

While the Sun Devils return 17 starters and will be good again, they lose their heart and soul in RB Cam Skattebo, who put the team on his shoulders all season last year.  Skattebo rushed for 1,711 yards and 21 TD, while also catching 45 balls for 605 yards and three scores.  He made life much easier on QB Sam Leavitt, who will have to shoulder much more of the load this season and I don't think he's ready for it.

I faded Boise State with USF in a similar situation in a 34-7 loss to the Bulls as 6.5-point favorites.  They lost Ashton Jeanty and more is on Maddux Madsen this season, and he's not ready for it.  I don't think Leavitt is ready for it, either.  

The Sun Devils got off to an underwhelming start beating FCS Northern Arizona 38-19 as 29.5-point favorites and not even coming close to covering the spread.  They only had one more first down than Northern Arizona and only outgained them by 129 yards.

I released my 25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +7 against Arizona State last week.  The Bulldogs jumped out to a 17-0 lead and pulled off the outright upset, 24-21.  That was a 2-10 Mississippi State team last season.  The Bulldogs outgained the Sun Devils 5.4 to 4.5 yards per play.

Now I'm fading Arizona State again with an underrated Texas State team.  G.J. Kinne is doing big things in San Marcos guiding the Bobcats to back-to-back 8-5 seasons.  Now in his 3rd season, he has all the pieces in place to have another great year.  This team is underrated due to bringing back just five starters, but Kinne did great in the transfer portal finding replacements.

Texas State blasted Eastern Michigan 52-27 in the opener as 14-point favorites.  The Bobcats backed it up by upsetting UTSA 43-36 as 4.5-point road underdogs last week.  And now they have their sights set on revenge from a 31-28 home loss to Arizona State as 2.5-point dogs last season.  They outgained the Sun Devils by 53 yards in the loss to prove they could hang.  They also bottled Scattebo up as well as anyone, holding him to 62 rushing yards and 2 TD on 24 carries.

Arizona State is without RB Kyson Brown and WR Jalen Moss, which is a big reason Leavitt has struggled so much thus far.  Brown has 84 rushing yards and 72 receiving yards through two games.  Moss has been out for each of their first two games and remains doubtful for this one.  Texas State has playmakers all over the field and will keep coming, champing at the bit for some revenge in this one.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Cincinnati Reds -113

The Cincinnati Reds are just 1.5 games back of the New York Mets for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They have a lot to play for right now, and I expect ace Hunter Greene to deliver the good again tonight.

Greene is 6-4 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 16 starts this season with 113 K's in 90 1/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Luis Severino, who is 1-9 with a 6.34 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 13 home starts for the A's this season.  Cincinnati should be a bigger favorite with this huge advantage on the mound tonight.  Bet the Reds Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Akron/UAB OVER 55

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers allowed 34.3 points per game last season.  They return just four starters on D and lose nine of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago.  They are going to be forced to try and win shootouts again this season, and that was on display in Week 1.

UAB beat Alabama State 52-42 as 21-point favorites with a total of just 53.5.  They sailed over that total by 40.5 points finishing with 94 combined points.  They gained 520 yards and 9.0 yards per play while allowing 514 yards and 7.9 per play.

UAB's offense took off once Jalen Kitna took over at QB for Jacob Zeno after a 41-18 loss to Navy.  The Blazers averaged 33.4 points per game over their final five games last season.  Kitna completed 62% of his passes for 2,209 yards and a 17-to-11 TD/INT ratio in eight starts last season.  He went 18-of-23 passing for 247 yards and 2 TD against Alabama State and is now comfortable in Trent Dilfer's system.

Last week, UAB lost 38-24 at Navy finishing with 62 combined points and going OVER the 59-point closing total.  That's a Navy team that likes to slow the game down too, so to get to 62 with Navy was impressive.   Kitna threw for 304 yards and 2 TD with 2 INT in the loss.   They allowed 463 total yards to the Midshipmen.

This total is only this low at 55 because Akron has been shut out in consecutive games against two dead nuts under teams in Wyoming and Nebraska, two teams that rely on defense and don't play fast on offense.  But they allowed 68 points to Nebraska and their defense is soft as butter.  I wouldn't be surprised if UAB scores 55 on its own.

But this Akron offense should finally get on track this week taking a big step down in class here after facing very good Nebraska and Wyoming defenses.  While the Zips return just two starters on D and will be terrible on D all season, they return five starters on offense including senior QB Ben Finley.  He threw for 2,604 yards and 16 TD last season for the Zips, and he'll have one of the biggest games of his career this week trying to keep up in a shootout with the Blazers. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +5.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores were one of the most improved teams in the country last season.  They went 7-6 with five outright upsets as underdogs last season.  Now they have 17 starters back from that team, and this is the best Vanderbilt team I can remember in a long time.

It's largely due to having one of the best leaders in the country in senior QB Diego Pavia.  He just refuses to lose and his teammates follow him.  Paiva is 8-2 ATS as an underdog at Vanderbilt, and he worked his magic at New Mexico State prior leading the Aggies to an appearance in the conference championship game.

South Carolina figures to take a big step back this season.  The Gamecocks only return 12 starters this season and lost 5 NFL draft picks on defense alone, plus four more who signed as undrafted free agents.  They are without CB Judge Collier who was one of their top returnees on D.

These teams already have a common opponent in Virginia Tech.  South Carolina beat Virginia Tech 24-11 on a neutral despite getting outgained by 8 yards.  The Gamecocks got a late punt return TD that was the difference.  Vanderbilt blasted Virginia Tech 44-20 on the road last week.  This was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as the Commodores outgained the Hokies 490 to 248, or by 242 total yards.  They also outgained the Hokies 8.6 to 4.1 yards per play.

Last week, South Carolina had another misleading 38-10 win over South Carolina State as 42.5-point favorites.  They failed to cover the spread by 14.5 points despite getting not one, not two, but three non-offensive touchdowns.  They had two punt return TD's and a fumbled return TD.

LaNorris Sellers is a good QB, but he doesn't have nearly as much help this season.  The Gamecocks have only scored 34 of their 62 total points this season on offense despite the weak schedule.  They only managed 253 total yards against South Carolina State.  They are averaging only 5.2 yards per play on the season while the Commodores are averaging 8.4 yards per play.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Diamondbacks/Twins OVER 8

The Minnesota Twins have been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch going 18-6-1 OVER in their last 25 games overall.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 19 of those 25 games.  They have terrible pitching, but their lineup continues to produce.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 8 or more combined runs in all six, including 17 combined runs in Game 1 yesterday.

Arizona ranks 5th in baseball scoring 4.95 runs per game.  But the Diamondbacks rank 23rd allowing 4.82 runs per game with one of the worst staffs in baseball like the Twins, who are 24th at 4.83 runs per game.  The Diamondbacks and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in 9 of their last 11 games overall.

Ryne Nelson is 0-2 with a 16.19 ERA and 2.70 WHIP in two career starts against the Twins, allowing 12 earned runs and 18 base runners in 6 2/3 innings.  Joe Ryan allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone career start against the Diamondbacks.  Ryan has allowed 16 earned runs in 18 innings in his last four starts overall for a 8.00 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Arkansas/Ole Miss ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5

Quarterbacks and offenses in general tend to take big leaps in Year 2 under Bobby Petrino.  Petrino returned to Arkansas as offensive coordinator last season, and he is back again this season.  Talented QB Taylen Green figures to have a massive senior year after throwing for 3,154 yards and 15 TD last season, while also rushing for 602 yards and 8 scores.

Green and this Arkansas offense are off to a great start beating Alabama A&M 52-7.  This was a 45-7 game entering the 4th quarter before the Hogs called off the dogs.  Green threw for 322 yards and 6 TD in the win.  He backed it up with another 4 TD performance in a 56-14 win over Arkansas State last week.  This Arkansas offense is a juggernaut, but I think the defense will be poor again this season, so the Hogs will find themselves in a lot of shootouts.

There will probably be no tougher test for this Arkansas defense than this Ole Miss offense run by Lane Kiffin.  Ole Miss beat Arkansas 63-31 for 94 combined points last season and scored pretty much every time they touched the football while racking up 694 total yards in the process.

No question this Ole Miss offense won't be as potent this season with the loss to Jaxson Dart, but Kiffin always gets the most out of his QB's, and Ustin Simmons is the next one in line.  Simmons threw for 341 yards and 3 TD in a 63-7 win over Georgia State in the opener.

I think the fact that Ole Miss only beat Kentucky 30-23 last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.  But Kentucky shortened the game by running the play clock down every time, which has been their key to keeping games against Ole Miss competitive in recent years.  Bobby Petrino will have no interest in that, and he doesn't mind getting in a shootout.  This should be one of the most entertaining, high-scoring games of the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on South Florida +17.5

The South Florida Bulls are a team on the rise and I'm expecting them to make a run at a AAC title this season.  Head coach Alex Golesh is in his 3rd season with the team and has his best squad yet despite already getting the Bulls to bowl games in each of his first two seasons.

Golesh returns 16 starters and gets QB Byrum Brown back from injury.  He was lost for the season after five starts, and while the offense was still in good hands with Bryce Archie, they lost that dual-threat ability of Brown.  Keep in mind freshman Locklan Hewlett is the QB of the future as well to push both.  The offensive line returns four starters, adds in two transfers, and has 115 career starts back.

The biggest improvement should come from a defense that returns eight starters.  Each of the top three tacklers are back, and they added a lot of talent in the portal.  Each unit looks like the best of the Golesh era, and DC Todd Orlando should get the most out of them.

I cashed USF +6.5 over Boise State in the opener in a 34-7 upset victory.  Brown went 16-of-24 passing for 210 yards, while also rushing for 43 yards and two scores.  He also had a TD called back by penalty.  The Bulls were on cruise control in the 2H with the game in hand.

I cashed USF +18.5 last week in a 18-16 upset road win at Florida.  There was nothing fluky about that win as the Bulls outgained the Gators 391 to 355, or by 36 total yards.  Brown threw for 263 yards and a TD while also rushing for 66 yards in the win.  He is one of the best QB's in the country that nobody knows about.

If the Bulls playing anyone other than another in-state rival and Top 5 team in the country in Miami, they would probably have a letdown this week.  But they'll have no problem getting up for this game against the Hurricanes, and I fully expect them to give Miami a run for its money today.

Miami is getting a lot of respect for its 27-24 win over Notre Dame in the opener.  That's a Notre Dame team that was breaking in a freshman QB and with a much weaker defense than last year and new defensive coordinator.  Miami came back with a lackluster 45-3 win as 53.5-point favorites over Bethune-Cookman last week.  They just cannot be trusted to lay these kinds of numbers as Mario Cristobal is the king of underachieving.  Miami has a much bigger game against Florida on deck next week.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rangers/Mets OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Rangers and Mets tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left at Citi Field.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 11 or more combined runs in four of them.

The Mets should hang a big number on Patrick Corbin, who is 7-9 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  Corbin has been at his worst on the road, going 4-5 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 14 starts away from home.  He hates facing the Mets, allowing 18 earned runs and 7 homers in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them for a 11.30 ERA.

Brandon Sproat will be making his 2nd career start for the Mets.  Sproat allowed 3 earned runs in 6 innings to the Reds in his first start on September 7th.  Now he must face a red hot Rangers lineup that has scored at least 4 runs in all five games during their current 5-game winning streak.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tigers/Marlins OVER 8.5

The Miami Marlins are now 92-58-7 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 5-1 in Marlins last six home games with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six.  These two gas can starting pitchers figure to get rocked by both offenses today.

The Tigers rank 8th in baseball scoring 4.89 runs per game.  They should crush Janson Junk, who has a 5.32 ERA in 44 innings at home this season.  Junk has allowed 3 earned runs or more in eight consecutive starts and a total of 31 earned runs in 42 innings in those eight starts for a 6.64 ERA during this stretch.

Charlie Morton is 9-10 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 24 starts this season and on his last leg.  Morton has allowed 14 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  He has allowed 10 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Miami.  He is 0-2 with an 8.81 ERA in his last three starts in Miami, allowing 16 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/Arkansas State OVER 55

Arkansas State is a dead nuts OVER team under offensive-minded head coach Butch Jones.  The Red Wolves allowed 32.2 points per game and 462 yards per game last season.  You won't think they could be any worse, but they might be this season with just three starters back on D.  They lose each of their top 11 tacklers from last season.

But the Red Wolves have a lot of talent returning on offense including QB Jaylen Raynor, who completed 62% of his passes for 2,783 yards and 16 TD last season, while also rushing for 387 yards and 3 scores.  Also back is WR Corey Rucker, who had 1,053 yards and 7 TD last season.

To no surprise, Arkansas State was in a shootout in Week 1 beating SE Missouri State 42-24 for 66 combined points.  Raynor went 26-of-32 passing for 345 yards and 3 TD.  Their D allowed 365 yards and 5.4 per play against a terrible FCS team.  It was an even bigger shootout last week in a 56-14 loss at Arkansas and 70 combined points.  The Razorbacks racked up 630 yards on this soft Red Wolves defense.

The Iowa State Cyclones will hang another big number on Arkansas State.  They beat the Red Wolves 52-7 for 59 combined points at home last season, and they should come close to hanging 50 again.  They beat South Dakota 55-7 in Week 2 with a similar level of defense.  The other two games were against two top notch defenses in Iowa and Kansas State, which were lower scoring and are keeping this total lower than it should be.  Rocco Becht is legit one of the best QB's in the country, completing 68% of his passes for 595 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio thus far.

It's also true Iowa State's defense has benefited from playing a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses thus far in K-State, Iowa and South Dakota.  I think Raynor and company can get two or three touchdowns on this Iowa State defense to help contribute to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Temps will be in the 90's with no wind so it will be perfect scoring conditions, plus both defenses will get tired in the 2H.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh -6.5

The Pitt Panthers were 7-0 last season before QB Eli Holstein got injured.  They went 0-6 over their final six games with three losses by 5 points or fewer.  That poor finish put a big chip on their shoulder in the offseason, and they are undervalued to start the season as a result.

The Panthers are loaded with 16 returning starters as this could be one of the best teams of the Pat Narduzzi era as he enters his 11th season.  Holstein is now a sophomore and figures to be one of the best QB's in the country.  He has completed 70.6% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio while leading the Panthers to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start with wins over Duquesne 61-9 as 39.5-point favorites and Central Michigan 45-17 as 21.5-point favorites.

West Virginia looks like one of the worst Power 4 teams in the country under first-year head coach Rich Rodriquez.  Only 10 starters are back, and they lost top RB Jahiem White (845 yards, 7 TD LY) and starting WR Jaden Bray (7 receptions, 95 yards TY) to season-ending injuries last week against Ohio.  The Mountaineers are full of transfers who don't even know much about this rivalry with Pitt, and I question their motivation compared to that of the Panthers as well.

After opening with a 45-3 win over Robert Morris as 40.5-point favorites, the Mountaineers were upset 17-10 at Ohio as 3.5-point favorites.  But they should have lost by even more as that was a very misleading final score.  They were outgained 429 to 250 by Ohio, or by 179 total yards.  The Bobcats three three 2H interceptions or would have won by more.  That's an Ohio team that lost a lot of key players from last season including most of their D and also had a first-year head coach.  Like Ohio, Pitt should easily win this game by a TD or more.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oregon State/Texas Tech OVER 60.5

Texas Tech looks like a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Red Raiders put up 37.6 points per game and 463 yards per game last season.  They returned 10 starters on offense this season including QB Behren Morton, who had a 27-to-8 TD/INT ratio last season.  They brought in offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich, who led Texas State's up-tempo, high-powered offense under G.J. Kinne over the last two seasons.

The Red Raiders allowed 34.8 points per game and 460 yards per game last season.  They do have 11 starters back on defense, but that's no necessarily a good thing.  They opened with two easy OVERS beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67-7 for 74 combined points and Kent State 62-14 for 76 combined points.  This total of 60.5 points isn't high enough this week, either.

I like what I've seen from Oregon State on offense.  After losing 34-15 to California in the opener, they lost 36-27 to Fresno State last week for 63 combined points.  They racked up 528 total yards on Fresno State and really should have won the game.  They missed four 2-point conversions in that contest as well.

Oregon State QB Malik Murphy is doing his part throwing for 615 yards and 4 TD in two games.  They have a stud RB in Anthony Hankerson, and two sud WR's in Trent Walker (16 receptions, 235 yards) and Taz Reddicks (12, 174) for him to throw to.  The defense is a mess after allowing 29.9 points per game last season, they have allowed 35 points per game through two games this season.  But I think they can keep up in a shootout with the Red Raiders as these teams trade scores for four quarters.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Missouri State +28

The SMU Mustangs are overvalued this season due to making the 12-team playoff last year after taking advantage of a very week ACC schedule.  SMU only returns 12 starters and loses Brashard Smith who rushed for 1,332 yards and 14 TD last season.  They also lose their top two receivers.

SMU beat East Texas A&M 42-13 as 50.5-point favorites in what was a very misleading final in Week 1.  But SMU had two pick 6's and only outgained lowly East Texas A&M by 51 yards! That's the same East Texas A&M team that went on to lose 77-3 to Florida State last week!

The spot is terrible for SMU.  The Mustangs blew a late 14-point lead against in-state rival Baylor and lost 48-45 (OT) in Week 2.  They allowed 601 total yards to the Bears and were outgained by 143 yards.  I question how much they will have left in the tank this week, I like fading teams coming off a very close loss in a big game rather than fading a team off a very close win in a big game.  There tends to be more of a hangover effect for the team coming off the loss.

SMU WR Jordan Hudson, their 3rd-leading receiver from last year, is doubtful after sustaining an injury against East Texas A&M and sitting out the Baylor game.  Injuries are really piling up on defense as starting LB Alex Kilgore, starting LB Zakye Barker and starting DE Cam Robertson are all questionable.  They have another in-state rivalry game with TCU on deck next week, so this is a sandwich spot for them, and they could play it cautious with these injured players because of it.

Missouri State is in its first season as a FBS program.  But the Bears are set up much better for success than most teams making the leap to the FBS level.  They have a 3rd-year head coach in Ryan Beard and some stability.  They also return their best player in QB Jacob Clark, who threw for 3,604 yards with a 26-to-6 TD/INT ratio last season.

I think USC is a playoff contender this season, and Missouri State is undervalued now after a 73-13 loss at USC in the opener.  That came to fruition last week when the Bears went into Marshall and pulled the 21-20 win as 7-point underdogs.  That game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as Missouri State outgained Marshall 474 to 274, or by 200 total yards.  Clark went 21-of-31 passing for 359 yards and 3 TD with one INT in the win.

There will be no letdown for the Bears after their first FBS win as they now get to play their home opener, and fans will pack the stadium in anticipation with a team from the ACC coming to town.  No question the Bears will be more motivated for this game than the Mustangs, who will get more of a fight than they bargained for this week. Bet Missouri State Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

Both lineups should have their way with these two gas can starting pitchers today as we easily cash this OVER 8.5 ticket.  The OVER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 13 meetings.

Tomoyuki Sugano is 10-8 with a 4.51 ERA in 27 starts this season, including 3-4 with a 4.75 ERA in 13 road starts.  Sugano has allowed a whopping 14 earned runs and 6 homers in 12 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  He has allowed 5 earned runs and 16 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in two starts against the Blue Jays this season.

Max Scherzer is 5-3 with a 4.36 ERA in 14 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 4.50 ERA in eight home starts.  Scherzer is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA in his last three starts against the Orioles, allowing 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Rays/Cubs Interleague No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Rays and Cubs today.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.  The ball should be flying out, and there should be plenty of runs as a result.

The Rays have been cautious with Drew Rasmussen here down the stretch limiting him to 85 pitches or fewer in three consecutive starts.  They aren't going to let him go deep in this one, either, and that will expose this Tampa Bay bullpen.

Collin Rea has allowed 9 earned runs and 18 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Giants and Braves.  Rea is 3-3 with a 4.74 ERA in his last 10 starts for the Cubs.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Clemson/Georgia Tech ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Tech +3.5

Georgia Tech is a better team than Clemson from what I've seen thus far.  They should not be home underdogs in a game they will win outright, though we will take the points for some insurance.

Georgia Tech returned 14 starters this season.  They pulled off upsets over then-No. 4 Miami 28-23 as 9-point dogs, and they nearly upset then-No. 6 Georgia in a 44-42 (8 OT) loss in the regular season finale last year.  They returned QB Haynes Kings and RB Jamal Haynes, their two biggest playmakers on offense.

Georgia Tech opened with a 27-20 road win at Colorado.  The Yellow Jackets managed to cover as 3.5-point favorites despite being -3 in turnovers.  This was a misleading final score to say the least as the Yelow Jackets outgained the Buffaloes 463 to 305, or by 158 total yards.  They also outgained them 6.8 to 5.1 yards per play.

King sat out a 59-12 win over Gardner Webb as 37.5-point favorites last week for precautionary reasons.  Backup QB Philo threw for 373 yards in his place.  King is expected to return for the Clemson game, and he is arguably the best leader of any QB in the country.  His team will rally around his return.

Clemson lost 17-10 as 5.5-point home favorites to LSU in the opener.  LSU went on to a lackluster 23-7 home win over Louisiana Tech as 36.5-point favorites, so that win looks even worse now.  But what looks even worse than that was a 27-16 home win over Troy as 30.5-point favorites last week by the Tigers.  Clemson only outgained Troy 316 to 301, or by 15 total yards.  The Tigers even benefited from 3 INT by Troy QB Crowder and still couldn't put them away.

A big reason this Clemson offense has struggled is because they have been without their best receiver in Antonio Williams, who had 75 receptions for 904 yards and 11 TD last season.  Williams remains doubtful for this game, and fellow starting LT Tristan Leight is doubful as well.  Starting safety Khalil Barnes (60 tackles, 4 INT) last year is likely to miss this game as well.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +24.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the Oklahoma Sooners.  They are coming off a 24-13 home win as 4-point favorites against Michigan last week.  They have an even bigger game on deck against Auburn in their SEC opener next week, which will be Jackson Arnold's revenge game.  They just want to get in and get out of Temple with a win and aren't concerned with getting margin.

I have a lot of respect for Temple first-year head coach K.C. Keeler with all the success he had a Sam Houston State.  He won a FCS national title with Delaware, and he won the FCS national title with Sam Houston State.  Temple is very lucky to have him, and the Owls are already showing major improvement through two games this season.

After crushing UMass 42-10 as 2-point favorites in their opener, the Owls blasted Howard 55-7 as 28.5-point favorites last week.  So they have covered the spread by a combined 49.5 points in their first two games, which just shows how undervalued they are to open the season.

QB Evan Simon has some of the best numbers in the country completing 77.1% of his passes with a 9-to-0 TD/INT ration.  RB Jevyon Ducker has rushed for 215 yards and a TD while averaging 7.4 per carry.  They have two 100-yard receivers in WR Bermudez (8, 111, 1 TD) and TE Clarke (6, 119, 2 TD).  Six different receivers have caught a TD pass from Simon.

The improvement on defense courtesy of many transfers has been the most impressive.  The Owls were terrible defensively last season allowing 35.4 points per game.  They are allowing just 8.5 points per game, 211.5 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play through two games.  They are good enough to hang around for four quarters given the obvious flat spot for the Sooners.  The Owls will be the much more motivated team Saturday, especially after losing 51-3 in their opener at Oklahoma last season.  Bet Temple Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Angels/Mariners OVER 7.5

This total of 7.5 between the Angels and Mariners tonight is too low given how much both starting pitchers are struggling coming into this one.  These teams combined for 13 runs in Game 1 of this series Thursday, and it should be more of the same in Game 2 tonight.

Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a whopping 18 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a 13.88 ERA during this stretch.  Kikuchi allowed 3 earned runs, 2 homers and 9 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Mariners this season.  He is 1-8 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 15 road starts this season with massive home/road splits.

Luis Castillo is 1-2 with a 7.83 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in his last five starts.  He has allowed 20 earned runs and 7 homers in 23 innings in those five starts.  Castillo allowed 6 runs, 4 earned, and 3 homers in 5 innings in his lone start against the Angels this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Reds +114

With the Mets going 0-6 in their last six games overall, they have opened the door for both the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks to catch them for the final wild card spot in the National League.  Both trail the Mets by just 1.5 games.  The Reds are max motivated right now to catch them, and they should not be underdogs to the Sacramento A's, who have been eliminated from postseason contention.

Brady Singer is 13-9 with a 3.92 ERA in 28 starts for the Reds this season.  But Singer has been absolutely dominant here down the stretch, allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in 14 of his last 17 starts, and 4 earned runs in two of the starts he didn't.  He has allowed a total of 10 earned runs in 47 innings in his last eight starts for a 1.91 ERA during this stretch.  Singer held the A's to one earned run in 6 innings with 9 K's in his last start against them.

Sacramento projected starter J.T. Ginn is 3-6 with a 4.95 ERA in 13 starts and seven relief appearances this season.  Ginn is 1-4 with a 6.64 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in seven starts and four relief appearances at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.  Ginn has allowed 29 earned runs and 12 homers in 39 1/3 innings at home this season.  Bet the Reds Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on San Diego Padres -1.5 (-125)

The Colorado Rockies are 3-17 in their last 20 games overall with 15 losses by multiple runs.  They are clearly just ready for this dreadful season to be over sitting at 40-107 on the season.  They didn't show up against the Dodgers last series, and they won't show up against the Padres in this series, either.

JP Sears has been revived now that he is pitching for a contender in the Padres after being traded from the A's.  He has a 3.86 ERA in his last three starts and I trust him to shut down the Rockies, who have scored a total of 4 runs in their last five games overall for an average of 0.8 runs per game.

Tanner Gordon is 5-6 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 12 starts for the Rockies this season, including 1-3 with a 9.33 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in four road starts while allowing 19 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings away from home.  Gordon just faced the Padres in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 2/3 innings of an 8-1 defeat.  The Padres will rock him again here getting to face him for the 2nd time in a week.  Bet the Padres on the Run Line Friday.

15* CFB Friday Night Line Mistake on Houston -5.5

The Houston Cougars will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They finally got the head coach that can turn this program around in Willie Fritz.  He led Sam Houston to back-to-back FCS title games, led Georgia Southern to a Sun Belt title in his first season, and led Tulane to 12-2 and Cotton Bowl champs in 2022 and 11-1 and an AAC title game appearance in 2023.

The cupboard was bare for Fritz in his first season last year coming off a 4-8 campaign in 2023.  He only had nine starters back and the Cougars went 4-8 in his first season.  Now Fritz has 16 starters back in 2025 and all the pieces in place.  He brought back his offensive coordinator at Tulane in Slade Nagle, and nabbed defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong from Florida.

The Cougars are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season winning 27-0 over Stephen F. Austin as 24-point favorites and 35-9 at Rice as 14-point favorites.  The road win over Rice was particularly impressive considering the Owls had upset Louisiana on the road as 10-point underdogs in Week 1.  The Cougars outgained the Owls 392 to 228 for the game and 6.5 to 3.5 yards per play.

Houston had a great defense last year holding foes to 22.9 points per game and 325 yards per game.  That defense is even better this season.  And after having one of the worst offenses in the country last year, the Cougars finally have an offense this season with nine starters back.  They brought in Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman, who was a Top 5 recruit coming out of high school but just couldn't stay healthy in College Station.

But as high as I am on Houston this season, this play is as much a fade of Colorado as anything.  The Buffaloes lost Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, QB Shedeur Sanders and each of his top four receivers from last season.  They are going to regress big time this season after a 9-4 campaign last year with all that talent.

Colorado has had two very misleading finals to start the season.  They lost 27-20 at home to Georgia Tech in Week 1.  The Yellow Jackets really dominated that game outgaining the Buffaloes 463 to 305 and 6.8 to 5.1 yards per play.  Georgia Tech won and covered -3.5 despite being -3 in turnovers as well.

Last week, Colorado beat Delaware 31-7 as 24-point home favorites.  But that was a very misleading final as well.  The Buffaloes only outgained the Blue Hens 398 to 396 for the game, or by 2 yards.  They were outgained 5.7 to 6.0 yards per play by the Blue Hens.  The Buffaloes also benefited from being +2 in turnovers, and Delaware stopped itself time and time again deep in Colorado territory failing to turn all that yardage into points.

Deion Sanders has already decided to bench Liberty transfer QB Kaidon Salter, while also bypassing 5-star freshman Julian Lewis.  He is going with 3rd-string QB Ryan Staub which feels like a desperate move this early in the season.  I don't expect it to go well for Staub in his first career start on the road in a hostile atmosphere on a Friday night in Houston.  Bet Houston Friday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Rangers -102

The Texas Rangers are the hottest team in baseball. They have gone 14-4 in their last 18 games overall to pull within 2 games of both the Astros and Mariners for 1st place in the AL West and also the final wild card spot.

The New York Mets are one of the coldest teams in baseball.  They are 0-6 in their last six games overall and were just swept in 4 games by the Phillies while getting outscored 27-10 in the four games.  The Rangers have the rest advantage after having yesterday off while the Mets will be playing for an 8th consecutive day.

The Rangers also have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Jacob DeGrom, who is 11-7 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  DeGrom will have extra motivation tonight as this is his first start against his former team as well.

Jonah Tong is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts for the Mets this season.  He has allowed 8 runs, 5 earned, and 3 homers in 11 innings this season.  Bet the Rangers Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on San Diego Padres -1.5 (-115)

The Colorado Rockies are 3-16 in their last 19 games overall with 14 losses by multiple runs.  They are clearly just ready for this dreadful season to be over sitting at 40-106 on the season.  They didn't show up against the Dodgers last series, and they won't show up against the Padres in this series, either.

McCade Brown is 0-3 with a 12.54 ERA and 2.36 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs and 22 base runners in 9 1/3 innings.  He faced the Padres in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings on September 6th, and I don't foresee it going much better for him today.

Randy Vasquez has posted a 3.91 ERA in 23 starts for the Padres this season.  Vasquez has held the Rockies to just 5 earned runs in 17 innings in his last three starts against them despite two of those starts coming at hitter-friendly Coors Field.  Bet the Padres on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Commanders/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Washington +3.5

The Washington Commanders were impressive in their opener against the New York Giants to back up what they did last season in winning a playoff game before before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles.  I had the Giants in that game and came away very impressed with just how dominant the Commanders were.

The Giants were expected to have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season, and the Commanders shredded it.  They won 21-6 but easily could have scored more if they kept their foot on the gas in the 2H.  They went for 432 total yards and 6.6 yards per play on that vaunted Giants defense.

While the Giants weren't expected to have a great offense coming in, the Commanders made them look even worse than they were.  They allowed just 231 total yards and 3.7 yards per play in the win.  They outgained the Giants by 201 yards and 2.9 yards per play for the game.

The Packers won by a similar 27-13 margin over the Lions at home last week.  But they weren't nearly as dominant as the final score, only outgaining the Lions 266 to 246 for the game, or by 20 yards.  Keep in mind that was a Lions team that lost both coordinators and some key starters along the offensive line from last season.  They just weren't as sharp offensively without Ben Johnson calling the shots.  I think the Packers are getting too much credit for that win.

While the Commanders are basically fully healthy right now, the Packers have all kinds of injury issues to where they should not be 3.5-point favorites in this matchup.  The Packers have a Top 10 offensive line when healthy, but they aren't healthy at all right now.  Both RT Zach Tom and LG Aaron Banks are questionable and closer to doubtful.  They are without WR Christian Watson, and DE Micah Parsons CB Nate Hobbs are both questionable, while CB Nate Hobbs is out.  Bet the Commanders Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Phillies OVER 8

The Mets and Phillies combined for 14 runs yesterday and 12 runs Tuesday.  They should sail OVER this 8-run total again today against these two starting pitchers.

David Peterson has been rocked for a 7.77 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 21 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings.  Peterson was rocked for 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his last start against the Phillies on June 22nd, and he is now 1-4 with a 5.67 ERA in 11 career starts against them.  He is 0-3 with a 6.13 ERA in six career road starts at Philadelphia as well.

Jesus Luzardo has posted a 4.50 ERA in 14 home starts for the Phillies this season and is one of the more overrated starters in baseball.  Luzardo allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings of a 6-5 loss to the Mets in his last start against them on August 26th.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Tigers/Yankees OVER 8.5

The Yankees rank 1st in baseball scoring 5.19 runs per game while the Tigers rank 7th scoring 4.92 runs per game.  This total of 8.5 is too short for these two offenses tonight up against these two starting pitchers and bullpens tonight.

The Tigers will make this a bullpen game starting with Tyler Holton, who is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA in five starts this season lasting a total of 7 1/3 innings.  So their bullpen is going to get a lot of use, and the Yankees should bust out offensively in this one.

The Tigers have scored 12 and 11 runs on their own in the first two games of this series.  They should stay hot against Cam Schlittler, who is 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in six home starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nationals/Marlins OVER 8

The Nationals and Marlins combined for 22 runs in Game 1, 12 runs in Game 2 and 11 runs in Game 3.  The Marlins are 91-57-7 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.  The Nationals have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.41 ERA while the Marlins have the 9th-worst with a 4.42 ERA.  Both starting pitchers figure to get rocked tonight with both bullpens getting a lot of use again.

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a whopping 31 earned runs in 37 innings in his last eight starts for a 7.54 ERA during this stretch.  Gore has allowed 6 earned runs in 12 innings in two starts against the Marlins in 2025.

Ryan Weathers will be making his first start since June 7th and will be on a pitch count.  He wasn't going deep into games before injury, and he won't be tonight either as the Marlins will have to use their bullpen again.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tigers/Yankees OVER 8

The Yankees rank 1st in baseball scoring 5.22 runs per game while the Tigers rank 8th scoring 4.88 runs per game.  This total of 8 is too short for these two offenses tonight up against these two starting pitchers.

The Yankees are capable of covering this total on their own against Jack Flaherty, who is 7-13 with a 4.85 ERA in 28 starts this season, including 2-6 with a 5.64 ERA in 12 road starts.  Flaherty has been rocked for 13 earned runs in 15 innings in his last three starts.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 1 1/3 innings in his lone career start at Yankee Stadium.

Carlos Rodon just does not enjoy facing the Tigers.  He is 0-3 with an 11.08 ERA in his last three starts against them, allowing 16 earned runs in 13 innings.  He is 2-2 with a 8.37 ERA in five career home starts against Detroit, allowing 22 earned runs and 6 homers in 23 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Mets +153

The New York Mets will be highly motivated for a victory after dropping the first two games of this series to the Philadelphia Phillies.  The Phillies are without Trae Turner, Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh and their offense is very limited without these three.

Clay Holmes is 11-7 with a 3.61 ERA in 28 starts for the Mets this season, including 6-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 14 road starts.  This will be his first career start against the Phillies which gives him the advantage with the element of surprise.

Cristopher Sanchez is having a solid season, but he has not fared well against the Mets.  Sanchez is 0-2 with a 8.59 ERA and 2.32 WHIP in two starts against New York this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.  Bet the Mets Wednesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Marlins OVER 8.5

The Nationals and Marlins combined for 22 runs in Game 1 and 12 runs in Game 2.  The Marlins are 90-57-7 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.  The Nationals have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.37 ERA while the Marlins have the 8th-worst with a 4.45 ERA.  Both starting pitchers figure to get rocked tonight with both bullpens getting a lot of use again.

Jake Irvin is 8-11 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 6-7 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 16 road starts.  Irvin is 0-4 with a 10.80 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 26 earned runs and 7 homers in 21 2/3 innings.

Eury Perez is 6-5 with a 4.66 ERA in 16 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 6.89 ERA in his last eight starts while allowing 25 earned runs and 9 homers in 32 2/3 innings.  He allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 2 innings of a 10-5 loss to the Nationals in his last start on September 3rd, and I don't suspect it will go well for him in the rematch a week later.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Twins/Angels OVER 8.5

The Twins are a dead nuts OVER team going 17-5-1 OVER in their last 23 games overall.  They have combined for 9 runs or more with their opponents in 18 of those 23 games.  They have the 6th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.67 ERA on the season and that number has skyrocketed here down the stretch as their bullpen has been blown up time and time again.

The Angels are also a dead nuts OVER team due to having the 3rd-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.89 ERA.  They are 79-63-1 OVER in all games this season and allow 5.12 runs per game.  Both starters and bullpens figure to get rocked again in Game 3 today after combining for 15 runs in Game 1 and 14 runs in Game 2.

Taj Bradley is 6-7 with a 4.92 ERA in 24 starts this season.  Bradley is 0-1 with an 8.64 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in his last four starts, allowing 16 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings.

Jose Soriano is coming off one of his worst starts of the season allowing 8 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of a 10-4 home loss to the A's.  Soriano has allowed 7 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Minnesota.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Brewers/Rangers MLB Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 7.5

Runs will be very hard to come by this afternoon in this tremendous pitcher's duel between Freddy Peralta and Merrill Kelly.

Peralta is 16-5 with a 2.50 ERA in 29 starts this season.  He has been untouchable in his last five starts, going 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA while tossing 28 shutout innings allowing just 13 base runners in 35 K's.  Peralta has held the Rangers to 3 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them.

Merrill Kelly is 11-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 29 starts this season.  Kelly is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA in his last six starts for the Rangers, allowing just 9 earned runs in 39 innings.  He has allowed just one earned run in 12 innings in his last two starts against the Brewers.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-135)

The Los Angeles Dodgers just got Max Muncy back in the lineup yesterday and they should get Will Smith back tonight.  They should be close to full strength now for this stretch run where they'll be motivated to win the NL West as they lead the Padres by just one games.

The Colorado Rockies remain a dumpster fire and the worst team in baseball.  The Rockies are 3-14 in their last 17 games overall with 12 losses by multiple runs.  They are now 40-104 on the season.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Emmet Sheehan, who is 5-3 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in nine starts and two relief appearances.  Sheehan is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in five home starts.  The Dodgers are 3-0 in Sheehan's three career starts against the Rockies winning by 6, 7 and 11 runs.

German Marquez is 3-12 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 22 starts for the Rockies this season.  Marquez has allowed 12 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  Marquez has allowed 17 runs, 11 earned, and 6 homers in 10 innings his last three starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Twins/Angels OVER 9

The Twins are a dead nuts OVER team going 16-5-1 OVER in their last 22 games overall.  They have combined for 9 runs or more with their opponents in 17 of those 22 games.  They have the 6th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.59 ERA on the season and that number has skyrocketed here down the stretch as their bullpen has been blown up time and time again.

The Angels are also a dead nuts OVER team due to having the 3rd-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.88 ERA.  They are 78-63-1 OVER in all games this season and allow 5.14 runs per game.  These are two of the worst starters in baseball going tonight backed by two of the worst bullpens in baseball, so the offenses should have their way.

Zebby Matthews is 5-8 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 22 career starts, including 4-4 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 13 starts in 2025.  Kyle Hendricks is 6-9 with a 4.81 ERA in 27 starts for the Angels this season after going 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA with the Cubs last season.  Hendricks allowed 7 earned runs in 3 innings of a 11-4 loss to the Twins in his lone start against them this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Rangers -105

The Texas Rangers are playing their best baseball of the season going 12-4 in their last 16 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the Seattle Mariners for the final wild card spot.  They are also just 3.5 games behind the Astros for the AL West lead.  They have a lot to play for right now and are playing with a sense of urgency.

The Brewers will be going through the motions here down the stretch with a 7.5-game lead on the Cubs for NL Central title.  They are also 4.5 games ahead of the Phillies for the best record in the National League.  I question their motivation the rest of the way.

Jack Leiter is 5-2 with a 2.91 ERA in his last 10 starts.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 13 consecutive starts, including 2 earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts.  Leiter is 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 12 home starts this season as well.

Rookie Chad Patrick is 3-8 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 20 starts for the Brewers this season.  He will be on a pitch count as the Brewers don't want to tax him too much here down the stretch.  Bet the Rangers Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento A's +153

The A's are 24-16 in their last 40 games overall with mostly wins as underdogs during this stretch.  They continue to show up day in and day out.  The A's are showing great value tonight with Luis Morales on the mound.

Morales is 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in five starts and one relief appearance this season for the A's.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 28 1/3 innings with 30 K's.

Garrett Crochet allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers to the Guardians in his last start, and now now allowed at least one homer in five consecutive starts with a 4.80 ERA in his last five starts.  The A's have scored a total of 30 runs in their last three games and will get to Crochet tonight.  Bet the A's Monday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +2

Note: I have placed 6-point teasers wheeling them all together with every combination of the Eagles -1, Broncos -2, Falcons +8.5, Bears +7.5 & Ravens +7.5. Just make sure you can get the favorites to -2.5 or better and the dogs to +7.5 or better or don't place them. Also make sure you get -130 or better or don't place them.

Entering Week 1, division home dogs have gone 18-10 SU & 24-6 (80%) ATS since 2009.  The Bears are showing great value as home underdogs to the Minnesota Vikings.  They have the head coach in Ben Johnson that can get the most out of Caleb Williams as many believe him to be the best offensive mind in the game.

The Bears played their starters in the preseason and looked great in doing so.  They will be more prepared for Week 1 than the Vikings, who didn't play their starters in the preseason.  The Vikings have basically a rookie QB in JJ McCarthy making his first start after sitting out last season with an injury.

The Vikings were just fine without him going 14-3 in the regular season.  But that record was inflated by a 9-1 record in one score games, so the Vikings were one of the most lucky teams in the NFL last season.  They are due some regression, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Vikings early.  Rookie QB's have been terrible on the road in Week 1 historically in the NFL.

All the pieces are in place for Caleb Williams to succeed this season.  Not only did they hire Johnson, but they also bolstered the offensive line after allowing a league-high 68 sacks last year.  GM Ryan Poles traded for Pro Gowl guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson while signing top free-agent center Drew Dalman.  They used their first three picks on Michigan TE Colston Loveland (#10), Missouri WR Luther Burden III (#39) and Boston College OT Ozzy Trapilo (#56) in the first two rounds.  They will join WR's DJ Moore and Rome Odunze.

Veteran defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has 23 years of NFL experience.  The Bears bolstered an already solid defense in free agency with two-time Pro Bowl DT Grady Jarrett and DE Dayo Odeyingbo.  They drafted Texas A&M DT Shemar Turner in the 2nd round.  The Bears already have a pair of pro bowlers in DE Montez Sweat and CB Jaylon Johnson.  LB's Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards should fit Allen's aggressive scheme perfectly.  NB Kyler Gordon is one of the best in the NFL at his position and Allen has had high praise of him.

The Vikings open the season missing some key players due to injury.  WR Jordan Addison is suspended, FB C.J. Ham is on IR, FS Harrison Smith is out with an illness, and LT Christian Darrisaw is questionable.  I think the atmosphere in Chicago is going to be electric for the home opener with the anticipation of Johnson making his head coaching debut.  Their home-field advantage for this single game is higher than it will be the rest of the season.  Bet the Bears Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -119

The Mets have a lot more to play for than the Phillies right now.  The Mets are clinging on to the final wild card spot in the National League, while the Phillies are 7 games up in the NL East with a big margin for error here down the stretch.

The Phillies suffered a big blow yesterday when their best player in Trae Turner left with a hamstring injury in a loss to the Marlins.  He has been one of the hottest players in baseball since the All-Star Break.  It's a big blow to their lineup.

Rookie Nolan McLean has been dynamite for the Mets, going 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in four starts while allowing just 4 earned runs and 21 base runners in 26 1/3 innings with 28 K's.  One of those starts came in a 6-0 win over the Phillies on August 27th when McLean fired 8 shutout innings.

Aaron Nola has been an absolute gas can for the Phillies this season.  He is 3-8 with a 6.78 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 13 starts.  Nola has a 10.57 ERA in his last five starts while allowing a whopping 27 earned runs and 7 homers in 23 innings.  He has allowed 14 earned runs and 6 homers in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts against New York.  Bet the Mets Monday.

20* Ravens/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore ML +100

Note: I have placed 6-point teasers wheeling them all together with every combination of the Eagles -1, Broncos -2, Falcons +8.5, Bears +7.5 & Ravens +7.5. Just make sure you can get the favorites to -2.5 or better and the dogs to +7.5 or better or don't place them. Also make sure you get -130 or better or don't place them.

I love the spot for the Baltimore Ravens to open the 2025 season.  They get their shot at revenge right away against a Buffalo Bills team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season.  To be fair, the Ravens were the better team and they basically eliminated themselves with a poor INT from Lamar Jackson, and a fumble plus a dropped 2-point conversion attempt from Mark Andrews that would have forced OT.  They have not forgotten, and they will release their frustration on the Bills Sunday night.

The Ravens were statistically the best team in the NFL last season despite not winning the Super Bowl, which can happen.  They outgained their opponents by 1.6 yards per play which is about as elite as it gets.  And they will be just as strong again in 2025 with what they have returning.  Their offense and defense both basically return all their important pieces.

I like the Buffalo offense and it will be good again, but the problem for the Bills is that they just don't have a Super Bowl defense like the Ravens do.  They are decent along the Front 7, but the problem will be weak secondary that is banged up already.  They will be without CB Tre'Davious White and fellow CB Christian Benford is banged up.  They need to make some sort of trade to patch up this weak link, and I expect Jackson and company to expose it.

The Ravens outgained the Bills 416 to 273 in that 27-25 loss in the playoffs last year.  Like I said, they beat themselves, and I don't see that happening again in the opener.  They will dominate statistically again, and they will win the game as a result.  Bet the Ravens on the Money Line Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -101

The Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated for a win today to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks.  I their chances of getting a win today to avoid the sweep due to their big advantage on the mound.

Ace Bryan Bello is 11-6 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in nine road starts.  Bello has allowed a total of 4 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings in his last three starts.

Ryne Nelson has seen big-time regression with a 4.85 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 16 earned runs in 29 2/3 innings.  Look for the Red Sox to pound him today and provide Bello plenty of run support to get a win.  Bet the Red Sox Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Broncos -8

Note: I have placed 6-point teasers wheeling them all together with every combination of the Eagles -1, Broncos -2, Falcons +8.5, Bears +7.5 & Ravens +7.5. Just make sure you can get the favorites to -2.5 or better and the dogs to +7.5 or better or don't place them. Also make sure you get -130 or better or don't place them.

The Denver Broncos went 10-7 and ended an eight-year playoff drought with a rookie QB in Bo Nix.  That's just how good head coach Sean Payton is, and the Denver Broncos are a dangerous team moving forward with him and general manager George Paton in sync along with ownership.  This is one of the most complete rosters in the NFL heading into 2025.

The Broncos have arguably the best defense in the NFL.  They ranked 3rd in scoring defense and 7th in total defense last season.  Nix figures to take another step forward in his second season under Payton's tutelage.  They ranked 10th in scoring last year.  Amazingly, nine of the Broncos' 10 wins last season came by 9 points or more.

I think you can chalk up another here in this home opener against a Tennessee Titans team that figures to be one of the worst in the NFL again this season.  The Titans went 3-14 last year and can't be any worse, and they did use the 1st overall pick on QB Cam Ward out of Miami.  But rookie QB's making their first start on the road have notoriously been bet against, and I don't expect it to go well for Ward against one of the league's top defenses in altitude.

The Titans ranked 30th in scoring defense last season allowing 27.1 points per game.  So they have to improve by leaps and bounds on that side of the football to be competitive, and I just don't see it with the talent on hand.  Outside of DT Jeffery Simmons there isn't much to like about this defense, and it will get exposed by Nix, Payton and company in the opener as the Broncos win this game by double-digits.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 8

The Yankees rank 1st in baseball scoring 5.25 runs per game while the Blue Jays rank 4th scoring 5.01 runs per game.  This total of 8 is too low for these two offenses playing at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium with light winds blowing out to center.

Max Scherzer has been rocked for 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts.  Scherzer allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings in his last start against the Yankees on July 22nd.  He has now allowed 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 13 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them.

Max Fried has been rocked for 10 runs, 8 earned, and 2 homers in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Blue Jays this season.  Both starts have been since July, so they are very familiar with him.  That familiarity favors the hitters.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6

The New York Giants figure to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  The only knock on them is playing one of the toughest schedules in the league.  But they will be a live underdog all season, starting with Week 1 against the Washington Commanders.

The Giants should have the best pass rush in the NFL with Burns, Lawrence II, Thibodeaux and rookie Abdul Carter, who has been getting rave reviews all through training camp.  Veteran Russell Wilson should help stabilize the offense and keep them in games because he isn't going to be making the same mistakes that Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito and company made prior to his arrival.  I like some of his young weapons most notably WR Malik Nabers and RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.

The Washington Commanders are overvalued this season after making the playoffs and beating the Bucs and Lions.  They went 9-2 in games decided by 7 points or fewer last season and were extremely lucky in close games.  Two of those close wins came against the Giants by 3 and 5 in their two meetings, and that was a Giants team led by Daniel Jones that wasn't nearly as strong as they will be this season.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Falcons +2.5

Note: I have placed 6-point teasers wheeling them all together with every combination of the Eagles -1, Broncos -2, Falcons +8.5, Bears +7.5 & Ravens +7.5. Just make sure you can get the favorites to -2.5 or better and the dogs to +7.5 or better or don't place them. Also make sure you get -130 or better or don't place them.

I think everyone is sleeping on Atlanta QB Michael Penix Jr.  He led the Washington Huskies to the national championship game and got Kalen DeBoer the head coaching job at Alabama.  He is the real deal, and he showed it when he took over for Kirk Cousins down the stretch last year.  He has ample weapons in London, Bijan Robinson, Pitts and several complementary receivers to get the most out of his talents.

But it's the improvement on defense that should be most noticeable.  The Falcons have struggled to find a pass rush for years, so they used two first-round picks on Georgia's Jalen Walker and Tennessee's James Pearce Jr. They also added former 49er Leonard Floyd.

The Tampa Bay Bucs figure to take a step back this season.  They went 10-7 last year to win the NFC South before losing at home to the Commanders.  They lost offensive coordinator Liam Coen to the Jaguars, and he was responsible for Baker Mayfield's career season last year.  I don't see Baker being as effective without Coen calling the shots moving forward.

The Bucs are missing some key pieces to open the season due to injury in WR Chris Godwin Jr., WR Jalen McMillian and their best offensive lineman in LT Tristan Wirfs.  Keep in mind the Falcons beat the Bucs in both meetings last season even with Kirk Cousins, so they know how to beat this team.  They'll be extra motivated to knock off the defending division champs in the opener at home.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Jets UNDER 38.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season.  I expect their offense to get off to a slow start with Aaron Rodgers signing with the team so late in the season.  Mike Tomlin is 32-9 UNDER as a road favorite in his career.

The New York Jets are going to be a defensive-minded team under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn, who was the defensive coordinator of the Lions last year.  They do have a proven defensive coordinator in Steve Wilks and a lot of talent on that side of the ball for him to get the most out of.  

But the offense is going to be a mess with Justin Fields at QB, very little talent around him and a young, banged up offensive line.  They will be learning new schemes under new coordinator Tanner Engstrand and won't hit the ground running at all.  Speaking of running, the Jets will be a power running team this season because their offense is limited with Fields' inability to pass the football consistently.

I also like the UNDER due to these teams' familiarity with these two starting quarterbacks.  Rodgers was with the Jets last year, while Fields was with the Steelers.  Both defensive coordinators will be able to scheme it up to take away their strengths and expose their weaknesses.  There has also been a lot of rain Sunday morning that could mess up the field.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +7

It's time to 'buy low' on Mississippi State after a 2-10 season.  Jeff Lebby stepped into a tough situation with just nine returning starters in his first season.  The Bulldogs held their own against many of the top teams in the country losing by 7 to Arizona State, by 10 to Georgia, by 10 to Texas A&M and by 12 to Ole Miss.  Now they will be one of the most improved teams in the country in Year 2 for Lebby.

The Bulldogs return 16 starters and get their stud QB Blake Shapen back from injury after being lost for the year after four starts.  Shapen completed 69% of his passes for 974 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio in those four starts while also rushing for two scores.  Nine starters in all are back on offense as this will be an explosive unit.

But the biggest improvement should come from a defense that allowed 34.1 points and 456 yards per game last season.  Seven starters and four of the top five tacklers are back, plus they added a lot of talent through the portal.  They are bigger up front this year and improved at DE particularly to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

The Bulldogs made easy work of Southern Miss in a 34-17 win as 14-point favorites in the opener.  They led 34-10 before calling off the dogs in the 4th quarter.  They won and covered against a Southern Miss team that many are very high on due to getting Marshall head coach Charlie Huff and many of his players from a team that won the Sun Belt last season.  Shapen was sharp, going 26-of-34 passing for 270 yards in the win.  They gained 465 yards and 5.9 per play and held the Eagles to 301 yards and 4.1 per play.

While I think Mississippi State is one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into the season, I also feel Arizona State is one of the most overrated teams after a dream season last year that saw them win the Big 12 Championship and give Texas all they could handle in the 12-team playoff.  The Sun Devils pulled off the miracle, finishing 1st after being picked to finish last in the Big 12.  Now I think they will regress and finish middle of the pack this season.

While the Sun Devils return 17 starters and will be good again, they lose their heart and soul in RB Cam Skattebo, who put the team on his shoulders all season last year.  Skattebo rushed for 1,711 yards and 21 TD, while also catching 45 balls for 605 yards and three scores.  He made life much easier on QB Sam Leavitt, who will have to shoulder much more of the load this season and I don't think he's ready for it.

I faded Boise State with USF in a similar situation in a 34-7 loss to the Bulls as 6.5-point favorites.  They lost Ashton Jeanty and more is on Maddux Madsen this season, and he's not ready for it.  I don't think Leavitt is ready for it, either.  The Sun Devils got off to an underwhelming start beating FCS Northern Arizona 38-19 as 29.5-point favorites and not even coming close to covering the spread.  They only had one more first down than Northern Arizona and only outgained them by 129 yards.

Mississippi State wants revenge from a 30-23 road loss at Arizona State last season.  Shapen played well going 18-of-28 passing for 268 yards and 2 TD in the loss.  Leavitt only went 10-of-20 for 69 yards in the win.  That's because they relied so heavily on Skattebo, who had a whopping 262 rushing yards in the win, while also finishing as the leading receiver with 35 yards.  He accounted for 297 of their 415 total yards!  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on USC -27.5

The USC Trojans went 7-6 last season with five of their losses coming by 1, 3, 3, 5 and 7 points.  That's how close they were to being a 12-1 team.  Now Lincoln Riley returns 16 starters and one of the most experienced teams in the country.  The Trojans are flying under the radar this season as a sleeper to win the Big Ten.

The Trojans are off and running blasting Missouri State 73-13 as 35.5-point favorites in Week 1.  Jordan Maiva finished strong last season and is off to a great start this season and a sleeper to win the Heisman Trophy.  Maiava went 15-of-18 passing for 295 yards and 2 TD, while also rushing for a score in the opener.  He will have another big game here as the Trojans make easy work of Georgia Southern.

The Eagles opened with a 42-14 loss at Fresno State as 1-point underdogs.  That loss to a rebuilding Fresno State team with a first-year head coach looks real bad when you consider Fresno State lost 31-7 at Kansas in Week 0.  The Eagles have no hope of keeping this game within four touchdowns of USC if they couldn't do it against Fresno.  The Bulldogs ran for 351 yards and totaled 527 total yards against the Eagles.  You can only imagine what this potent USC offense is going to do to this defense.  Bet USC Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Total DOMINATOR on Georgia Southern/USC OVER 60.5

USC covered the total on their own in a 73-13 win over Missouri State in their opener in Week 1.  I think they are capable of doing the same thing here against Georgia Southern to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 60.5 ticket.

Georgia Southern allowed 42 points to Fresno State in Week 1.  That's really poor when you consider Fresno State managed just 7 points against Kansas in Week 0.  The Bulldogs ran for 351 yards and totaled 527 total yards against the Eagles.  You can only imagine what this potent USC offense under Lincoln Riley and Heisman candidate Jordan Maiava is going to do to this defense.

Georgia Southern should do enough to contribute to this total.  The Eagles do return their QB and two of their top three receivers under offensive-minded head coach Clay Helton.  They will continue to try and score late even if they are getting blown out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on San Francisco Giants -121

The San Francisco Giants are playing their best baseball of the season right now.  They have gone 11-1 in their last 12 games overall to pull within 4 games of the Mets and Padres for the final two wild card spots in the National League.  They have huge momentum right now and really feel like they have a shot.

The St. Louis Cardinals are 6.5 back and starting to realize their season is pretty much over.  They played like it yesterday in a 8-2 loss to the Giants, and it won't get any easier for them today with gas can Andre Pallante on the mound.

Pallante is 6-13 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 4-6 with a 5.91 ERA in 13 home starts.  Pallante has been dreadful in his last five starts, going 0-5 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.14 WHIP while allowing 24 earned runs and 47 base runners in 22 innings.  He has allowed 8 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in two career starts against the Giants for a 6.97 ERA.

Justin Verlander continues to pitch at a high level despite his age.  He has posted a 2.98 ERA in his last eight starts.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts.  Bet the Giants Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Army +17.5

I successfully faded Army last week cashing Tarleton State +14.5 in a 30-27 upset win in OT over the Black Knights.  Now I think it's time to 'buy low' on Army off that upset loss to what I believe is one of the best FCS teams in the country in Tarleton State.  The betting public tends to really put too much stock into poor performances against FCS teams.

It's like they are completely ignoring the fact that Kansas State should have lost outright to a much worse FCS team in North Dakota last week.  After losing 24-21 to Iowa State as a 3-point favorite in Ireland, the Wildcats were flat as expected last week in a 38-35 win over North Dakota as 27.5-point favorites.  They needed a game-winning TD with 42 seconds left just to escape with the victory.

I think this is already a tired Kansas State team after the trip to Ireland and two games that went down to the wire.  That's bad news going up against Army, a team that will test your will defensively by running for 3-4 yards at a time in a physical style of football.  Army will also shorten the game, so getting 17.5 points here is a great value.

Army allowed just 15.5 points per game last season and has another good defense with five of their top nine tacklers returning, including their top two.  This Kansas State defense looks awful thus far allowing 24 points to Iowa State and 35 to North Dakota.  The Wildcats only returned 10 starters this season including five on defense, losing four of their top six tacklers.

I think QB Avery Johnson is one of the most overrated QB's in the country.  The offense has missed DJ Giddens, who rushed for 1,343 yards last season.  RB Dylan Edwards was supposed to be their workhorse this season, but he has been out with an injury and may not return this week.

With another Big 12 game on deck Friday at Arizona, I think Kansas State won't put everything into this game.  The Wildcats will be in for a 3rd straight dog fight to start the season, and that's exactly the type of football the Black Knights live for.  Bet Army Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +265

The Chicago White Sox are coming off six consecutive wins as +154, +156, +123, +146, +126 and +168 underdogs.  They continue to show up despite their standing, and they are showing great value here as big underdogs again to a Detroit Tigers team that is just going through the motions right now.

Knowing they already have the AL Central locked up, the Tigers have gone 3-8 in their last 11 games overall with six losses as favorites.  They definitely should not be this big of a favorite against the White Sox today even with ace Tarik Skubal on the mound.

The lack of respect for Chicago's Martin Perez is mind blowing.  Perez has posted a 2.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven starts and one relief appearance this season, allowing just 10 earned runs and 2 homers in 41 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 13 innings in his last two starts.  I'll gladly take a shot on him at this price today.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Arkansas State/Arkansas OVER 63.5

Quarterbacks and offenses in general tend to take big leaps in Year 2 under Bobby Petrino.  Petrino returned as offensive coordinator last season, and he is back again this season.  Talented QB Taylen Green figures to have a massive senior year after throwing for 3,154 yards and 15 TD last season, while also rushing for 602 yards and 8 scores.

Green and this Arkansas offense are off to a great start beating Alabama A&M 52-7.  This was a 45-7 game entering the 4th quarter before the Hogs called off the dogs.  Green threw for 322 yards and 6 TD in the win.  They won't be calling off the dogs against Arkansas State, which called them out for not playing them in previous seasons.  They want to make a statement after all that shit talk, and although I like Arkansas to cover the spread as well, I think it favors the OVER more.

Arkansas State is a dead nuts OVER team under offensive-minded head coach Butch Jones.  The Red Wolves allowed 32.2 points per game and 462 yards per game last season.  You won't think they could be any worse, but they might be this season with just three starters back on D.  They lose each of their top 11 tacklers from last season.

But the Red Wolves have a lot of talent returning on offense including QB Jaylen Rayno, who completed 62% of his passes for 2,783 yards and 16 TD last season, while also rushing for 387 yards and 3 scores.  Also back is WR Corey Rucker, who had 1,053 yards and 7 TD last season.

To no surprise, Arkansas State was in a shootout in Week 1 beating SE Missouri State 42-24 for 66 combined points.  Raynor went 26-of-32 passing for 345 yards and 3 TD.  Their D allowed 365 yards and 5.4 per play against a terrible FCS team.  I expect Arkansas to score 50-plus to lead the way, and Raynor and company tacking off enough scores to get this game OVER this 63.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on South Florida +18.5

The South Florida Bulls are a team on the rise and I'm expecting them to make a run at a AAC title this season.  Head coach Alex Golesh is in his 3rd season with the team and has his best squad yet despite already getting the Bulls to bowl games in each of his first two seasons.

Golesh returns 16 starters and gets QB Byrum Brown back from injury.  He was lost for the season after five starts, and while the offense was still in good hands with Bryce Archie, they lost that dual-threat ability of Brown.  Keep in mind freshman Locklan Hewlett is the QB of the future as well to push both.  The offensive line returns four starters, adds in two transfers, and has 115 career starts back.

The biggest improvement should come from a defense that returns eight starters.  Each of the top three tacklers are back, and they added a lot of talent in the portal.  Each unit looks like the best of the Golesh era, and DC Todd Orlando should get the most out of them.

I cashed USF +6.5 over Boise State in the opener in a 34-7 upset victory.  Brown went 16-of-24 passing for 210 yards, while also rushing for 43 yards and two scores.  He also had a TD called back by penalty.  The Bulls were on cruise control in the 2H with the game in hand.

There will be no letdown here against big brother Florida as the Bulls will actually want this win more.  They also get the benefit of an extra day of rest and preparation after playing Boise State last Friday.  I think they show they can hang here for four quarters.

Florida is much less battle-tested after a 55-0 win over one of the worst teams in the FCS in Long Island.  The Gators have a big game against LSU on deck in their SEC opener and won't want to show more than they have to.  But I think they will get more of a fight from USF than they bargained for.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

15* USF/Florida SEC Network ANNIHILATOR on OVER 55.5

The South Florida Bulls are a team on the rise and I'm expecting them to make a run at a AAC title this season.  Head coach Alex Golesh is in his 3rd season with the team and has his best squad yet despite already getting the Bulls to bowl games in each of his first two seasons.

Golesh returns 16 starters and gets QB Byrum Brown back from injury.  He was lost for the season after five starts, and while the offense was still in good hands with Bryce Archie, they lost that dual-threat ability of Brown.  Keep in mind freshman Locklan Hewlett is the QB of the future as well to push both.  The offensive line returns four starters, adds in two transfers, and has 115 career starts back.

USF scored 34 points on a very good Boise State defense in Week 1.  Brown went 16-of-24 passing for 210 yards, while also rushing for 43 yards and two scores.  He also had a TD called back by penalty.  The Bulls were on cruise control in the 2H with the game in hand or they could have scored more.  They are a dead nuts OVER team with a great, up-tempo offense and mediocre defense.

Florida's offense is in good hands with QB DJ Lagway and eight returning starters on offense.  Lagway played well as a freshman taking over for an injured Graham Mertz.  He was the #3 rated QB in the country coming out of high school.  The Gators hung 55 points on Long Island in the opener and should hang a pretty big number on this USF defense as well.  This total of 55.5 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UAB/Navy OVER 58.5

Navy had one of its best offenses in program history last season with 31.3 points per game.  The Midshipmen should be even more potent this season considering they return eight starters on offense including QB Blake Horvath, who rushed for 1,246 yards and 17 TD while also throwing for 1,353 yards and 13 TD last season.  They return all of their top playmakers as well.

Navy blasted VMI 52-7 in the opener for 59 combined points.  The Midshipmen should do the heavy lifting in covering this 58.5-point total against UAB as well.  But the Blazers should also have plenty of success on offense which is their strong suit.  Navy loses six starters on D including their top three tacklers and two who had over 100 tackles last season.

UAB's defense won't offer much more resistance than VMI.  The Blazers allowed 34.3 points per game last season.  They return just four starters on D and lose nine of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago.  They are going to be forced to try and win shootouts again this season, and that was on display in Week 1.

UAB beat Alabama State 52-42 as 21-point favorites with a total of just 53.5.  They sailed over that total by 40.5 points finishing with 94 combined points.  They gained 520 yards and 9.0 yards per play while allowing 514 yards and 7.9 per play.

UAB's offense took off once Jalen Kitna took over at QB for Jacob Zeno after a 41-18 loss to Navy.  The Blazers averaged 33.4 points per game over their final five games last season.  Kitna completed 62% of his passes for 2,209 yards and a 17-to-11 TD/INT ratio in eight starts last season.  He went 18-of-23 passing for 247 yards and 2 TD against Alabama State last week and is now comfortable in Trent Dilfer's system.  He will keep coming even if Navy is winning in a blowout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-125)

The Cubs have a lot more to play for than the Nationals and a big advantage on the mound today.  There will be 15-20 MPH sustained winds blowing out to right-center so runs will be plentiful, which is why I'll back the Cubs to win this game by multiple runs on the Run Line again today.

Matthew Boyd is 12-7 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  Boyd allowed just 2 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings in his lone start against Washington this season back on June 4th.

He'll be opposed by Brad Lord, who is 4-8 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 14 starts and 29 relief appearances this season.  Lord has really struggled of late, allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a 12.08 ERA.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Cubs OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Nationals and Cubs today.  There will be steady 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.  It was a similar forecast yesterday when the Cubs beat the Nationals 11-5.

I expect the Cubs to cover this total on their own against Brad Lord, who is 4-8 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 14 starts and 29 relief appearances this season.  Lord has really struggled of late, allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a 12.08 ERA.

While Matthew Boyd is the far superior starter here, he has regressed of late and will give up enough runs to the Nationals if need be.  Boyd has allowed 13 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a 7.21 ERA during this stretch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.