15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Denver +34

Arizona is in a massive letdown spot.  The Wildcats are coming off consecutive huge wins over UCLA by 4 and UConn by 4.  It's just human nature for them to not be nearly as motivated to face Denver when they return home from the East Coast tonight.

Denver has been undervalued this season going 4-1 ATS.  The performances on the road have been very impressive.  The Pioneers only lost by 11 at Seattle as 12.5-point dogs and by 14 at Washington as 27.5-point dogs.  

They also pulled off two outright upsets beating Montana State by 2 as 7.5-point dogs and Colorado State by 2 as 19-point dogs.  They are clearly much better than anyone realizes and should not be catching 34 points here in this Arizona letdown spot.  Bet Denver Monday.

20* Panthers/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  They are back to near full strength on offense and have one of the best offenses in the league when that's the case.  But their defense is as injured as any defense in the NFL right now and they just cannot stop anyone.  That forces them to try and win shootouts week after week.

The 49ers are 6-1-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 49 or more combined points in five of their last seven games.  That includes 63, 68 and 58 points in their last three games coming into this one.  This is a very low total for a game involving the 49ers right now.

Brock Purdy returned to lead the 49ers to a 41-22 win at Arizona last week.  Purdy went 19-of-26 passing for 200 yards and 3 TD win the win.  He found George Kittle 6 times for 67 yards and 2 TD.  Kittle recently returned from injury, and now Rickey Pearsall is back after making his return last week.  He should get targeted much more this week.

It was a miracle the 49ers only gave up 22 points to the Cardinals when you consider they allowed 488 total yards.  Jacoby Brissett lit them up for 452 passing yards despite not having all of his top weapons at receiver, including Marvin Harrison Jr.  This came a week after allowing 42 points and 401 total yards to the Rams.

The 49ers have been lost without their two leaders on defense in DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner.  The injuries keep piling up as DE Gross-Matos and DE Jackson are both on IR, DE Beal Jr. and LB Bethune are both out, and LB Gifford is questionable.  The Panthers should be able to get whatever they want both on the ground and through the air against this 49ers mash unit.

Bryce Young led the Panthers to a 30-27 (OT) comeback win in Atlanta from 14 points down last week.  It was the best game of his career as he went 31-of-45 passing for 448 yards and 3 TD in the win.  With WR's McMillian, Legette and Coker and RB's Dowdle and Hubbard, the Panthers have some of the most underrated playmakers in the league.  They are also fully healthy on offense with the exception of C Cade Mayes, but backup C Austin Corbett has plenty of experience starting in his place.

The Panthers have injury concerns of their own on defense with both starting LB's Rozeboom and Wallace out for this game.  Those are huge losses as Rozebook has 91 tackles while Wallace has 52 tackles and 2 sacks.  You know Kyle Shanahan will scheme it up to exploit those weaknesses in the middle of this Carolina defense.

The Panthers are 5-3 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 49 or more combined points in five of those eight games.  So this total of 47.5 is also pretty low for a game involving the Panthers right now.  Both offenses will have their way with these two defenses Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bulls/Pelicans OVER 244

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-6 OVER in all games this season while ranking 2nd in pace.  They are going to play even faster now that Coby White is healthy and in the lineup.  He and Josh Giddey will keep these Bulls running as fast as possible as long as they are on the court.

The Pelicans rank 27th in defensive rating this season.  They are a very poor defensive team, but they are more of an OVER team when Zion Williamson (21.4 PPG) is healthy like he is tonight.  Throw in Derik Queen (12.6 PPG) and Trey Murphy (20.2 PPG), and the Pelicans have some offensive punch.  They will get their points against the Bulls tonight and gladly run with them.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Bulls and Pelicans.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Akron -1.5

Akron is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Zips are 5-1 SU & 5-0 ATS with their only loss coming by 18 at Purdue as 18.5-point dogs.  Purdue is arguably the best team in the country.

The spot really favors the Zips.  They crushed Iona by 21 on Friday and Evansville by 38 on Sunday in the first two rounds of the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Island.  They were able to rest their starters late and will still be very fresh for this game against Yale.

Yale struggled against two bad teams in its first two games.  The Bulldogs only beat Green Bay by 6 as 17-point favorites on Friday and Charleston by 11 on Sunday.  They had to play their starters the full minutes yesterday and won't be nearly as fresh as Akron will be for this one.  

They Bulldogs also lost outright as 8.5-point home favorites to Rhode Island in their game prior to this tournament and Stony Brook by 7 as 20-point favorites the game prior.  It's clear to me the Zips are the better team in the better spot today.  Bet Akron Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Pacers OVER 235.5

The Pistons are 5-1 OVER in their last six games while scoring at least 120 points in five of those six games.  They rank 8th in the NBA on offensive rating and get even more reinforcements now with PG Jaden Ivey and SG Caris LeVert returning to the lineup tonight.

The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  They have gotten healthier here of late to give their offense some punch with the healthy returns of Mathurin (26.4 PPG) and McConnell.  Having McConnell back is big because they run a lot faster with him in the lineup.

The Pacers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall finishing with 239 or more combined points three times.  One of those was against these Pistons in a 127-112 loss for 239 combined points.  Detroit didn't even have Cade Cunningham in this game and still scored 127 points.

What really stood out as well was the Pistons shot 9-of-35 (26%) from 3-point range while the Pacers shot just 9-of-31 (29%) from 3-point range in that first meeting.  So they got to 239 combined points despite the injuries and poor shooting, so there's actually a ton of room for more points here in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Jazz OVER 244

The Jazz are 5-0 OVER in their last five games combining for 266 points with the Thunder, 266 with the Lakers, 254 with the Bulls at the end of regulation, 254 with the Hawks and 270 with the Pacers.  The Jazz rank 6th in pace and 27th in defensive rating, and as long as Markkanen is healthy and playing the Jazz are a pretty solid offensive team as well.

What has really stood out is just how high-scoring these Utah games have been when they are at home in Salt Lake City and dictating the pace.  Opposing teams tend to get more tired in the altitude and it affects them defensively more than anything.  The Jazz are 7-1 OVER in all home games this season finishing with 233 or more combined points in all eight games, and and 254 or more in seven of those eight games.

The Lakers are fully healthy now with LeBron and Vincent back to go along with Reaves and Doncic.  They beat the Jazz 140-126 at home in their last game.  What stood out is neither team shot well from 3-point range and they still combined for 266 points.  The Jazz shot 13-of-45 (29%) while the Lakers shot 11-of-32 (34%) from deep.

The Lakers are 10-5 OVER in their 15 games this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Lakers finishing with 242 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  This total of 244 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Blazers/Thunder OVER 234.5

The Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace this season and have gone 12-4 OVER in their 16 games.  They are coming off a 127-123 win over the Warriors in the NBA Cup despite not having Sharpe (22.6 PPG) or Holiday (16.7 PPG, 8.3 APG) in the lineup.

The Thunder went for 256 combined points with the Jazz last time out and 235 with the Pelicans three games ago.  They won't mind running with the Blazers, and they want to make a statement here offensively after suffering their only loss of the season to the Blazers.

They lost 121-119 in Portland for 240 combined points on November 5th.  They shot just 42% from the field and still scored 119 points.  The Blazers only shot 41% from the field and still scored 121.  So there's even some room for improvement for both teams in the shooting department in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Celtics -4.5

I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  They are coming off an upset loss to the Nets in a home-and-home situation after beating the Nets by 14 on the road in the game prior.  They will come back motivated here to beat the Orlando Magic tonight.

The Celtics have a big rest advantage over the Magic.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days after a huge 133-121 win over the Knicks last night.

Jalen Suggs played 32 minutes and scored 26 points last night and will likely sit this 2nd of a back-to-back for injury management.  The Magic are already without leading scorer Paulo Banchero (21.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG).  Those two combined for 48 points in a 111-107 home loss to the Celtics in their last meeting on November 9th.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Celtics UNDER 221

The Celtics are a dead nuts UNDER team ranking dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Magic are in no hurry either ranking 20th in pace.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and this will already be the 3rd meeting between the Magic and Celtics this season.  Nine of the last 10 meetings between these teams have seen 218 or fewer combined points.

Jalen Suggs played 32 minutes and scored 26 points last night and will likely sit this 2nd of a back-to-back for injury management.  The Magic are already without leading scorer Paulo Banchero (21.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG).  Those two combined for 48 points in a 111-107 home loss to the Celtics in their last meeting on November 9th.

So the Magic won't have two of their best scorers and their floor general in Suggs, so points will be very hard to come by.  The Celtics already struggle on the offensive end as well, relying more on defense this season than ever to be competitive.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints ML +115

Note: I released this play early in the week when the Saints were underdogs.  I would lay up to -150 with the Saints.

The spot really favors the Saints.  They are coming off their bye week and have a first-year head coach in Kellen Moore who will get the most out of this bye week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL with only two starters listed as questionable this week, so they come out of the bye week healthy, rested and ready to go.

Look for them to pick up where they left off after a 17-7 road win over the Carolina Panthers going into their bye.  That was a more dominant result than the final score showed.  The Saints outgained the Panthers 388 to 175, or by 213 total yards.  Tyler Shough went 19-of-27 passing for 282 yards and 2 TD in the win and looks to be an upgrade from Spencer Rattler.

The spot couldn't be worse for the Falcons.  They have lost five straight with the last three being gut-wrenching losses after getting blowing out by the 49ers and Dolphins.  Three weeks ago they lost by 1 at New England after a missed XP, two weeks ago they lost in OT by 6 to the Colts in London, and last week they lost by 3 in OT after blowing a 14-point lead to the Panthers.  

The Falcons now sit at 3-7 on the season and eliminated from playoff contention and they know it.  They especially know it now that QB Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season.  They completed folded after he left the game and was replaced by Kirk Cousins last week against the Panthers.  Making matters worse, they will also be without their best receiver in Drake London (60 receptions, 810 yards, 6 TD) this week.

The Falcons injuries don't stop there.  They are without two starting offensive linemen and another two starters are questionable.  They have nine defenders on IR or out and LB Leonard Floyd is questionable.  They have been pitiful on both sides of the ball, especially defensively during this stretch.  And their offense has been atrocious with Cousins at QB.

We saw what Cousins could do with a full week of prep already, losing 34-10 at home to the lowly Miami Dolphins.  He is absolutely washed.  He is averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt on his 52 attempts this season and has yet to throw a TD pass.  The defense is just as big of a concern, allowing 29.8 points per game in their last four games.  They just allowed 486 total yards to the Panthers last week after giving up 519 yards to the Colts in London.  All this travel and all these OT losses will take their toll this week.  Bet the Saints on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Eagles/Cowboys NFC East No-Brainer on Dallas +3.5

Dak Prescott is 21-2 SU at home in his career against NFC East opponents.  That includes 6-1 SU against the Philadelphia Eagles.  He does not lose at home, and he has this Cowboys offense rolling this season and ready to take down the Eagles this week.

But the difference for the Cowboys is their defense, which got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

The Cowboys dominated the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a 33-16 win when they actually took knees at the goal line at the end of the game or it would have been 40-16.  They racked up 381 total yards on a solid Raiders defense, while limiting them to just 236 total yards.  They held them to 27 rushing yards, and I think the matchup is a great one for them because they should have one of the best run-stuffing duos with DT's Clark and Williams moving forward.

If anyone can stop the tush push the Eagles love to run, it's the Cowboys.  This Philadelphia team has been getting away with murder this season winning almost every close game.  The Eagles are overrated due to their 8-2 record, and they should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the Cowboys.  While the Eagles have a great defense, their offense has been one of the worst in the NFL and will get shut down here.

The Cowboys rank 2nd in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game, 6th at 6.0 yards per play and 9th at 4.7 yards per carry.  The Eagles rank 16th scoring 23.4 points per game, 25th in total offense at 300.1 yards per game, 24th at 5.3 yards per play and 25th at 3.9 yards per carry.  

Their offense is broken, and now they will be without their most important offensive lineman in LT Lane Johnson for this game.  Their numbers with him in and out of the lineup are staggering.  The Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Lane starts and 12-23 SU when he doesn't over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* Colts/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City -3

There have been 14 teams since 1990 to be 5-5 or worse and favored over a team that has won 80% or more of their games in the 11th game of the season or later.  Those 14 teams went 14-0 SU & 12-0-2 ATS.  The Chiefs are the 15th team in this situation, and they are favored here at home for good reason.

The Chiefs have their bye two weeks ago and are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now.  They came up short on a last-second FG in Denver, but they will bounce back at home here against the Colts.  They go from being 4.5-point road favorites in Denver to only 3-point home favorites over the Colts.  This line makes no sense as the Colts and Broncos are power rated as near equals and even played a coin flip in Indianapolis earlier this season in which Denver was favored.

The Chiefs have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game.  The Colts are 2-2 on the road losing to the Rams by 7 and the Steelers by 7.  They are much more vulnerable on the highway, and this will easily be their stiffest road test of the season.

The Colts have a commanding lead in the AFC South and can afford a loss.  I also think the bye week came at a bad time considering they were rolling.  The bye week could have only halted their momentum as they went into it fat and happy.  Teams winning 80% or more of their games and coming off a bye in Week 10 or later are just 36-50-1 ATS since 2005.

Sitting at 5-5 on the season, the Chiefs need this game like blood and cannot afford a loss if they want to make the playoffs.  I think they put their best foot forward as a result.  The Chiefs went 9-1 to open last season but actually had worse numbers than they do at 5-5 this season. The difference is they won all their one-score games last year, and they are 0-5 in one-score games this season.  They are averaging 364.2 yards per game and 5.9 per paly on offense and allowing just 396.8 yards per game and 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 68 yards per game.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Lions OVER 49.5

The New York Giants are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state going 5-1 OVER in their last six games.  Jameis Winson is an OVER QB who will stretch the field but also make costly mistakes to set up opponents for easy scores.  And the Giants currently have one of the worst defenses in the NFL due to all their injuries.

The Lions are pretty healthy and explosive on offense when in a dome, which they will be this week when they return home.  But the Lions are decimated with injuries on defense, and I think Winston and company will have success against them through the air against their banged up secondary.

The Lions are scoring 33.5 points per game at home this season.  They'll be facing a New York defense that is allowing an average of 31.2 points per game in their last five games.  The Giants will be without LB Thibodeaux and CB Adebo again this week, and SS Nubin and CB Banks are both questionable.  The Lions will top their season average in this one, especially against a Giants D that has allowed an average of 175.2 rushing yards per game in their last five games.  The Lions will score every time they get to the red zone.

Winston had the ball deep in Green Bay territory before throwing a INT in the end zone in a 27-20 loss last week.  That was nearly a 27-27 tie and 54 combined points.  That's a Green Bay team with an elite defense too, and he held up well against it.  His job will be much easier this week indoors against this hobbled Detroit defense.  It will also be easiest since he gets his best receiver in Darius Slayton back from a hamstring injury.

The Lions will be without both CB Terrion Arnold and FS Kerby Joseph this week.  DE Josh Paschal and DE Marcus Davenport remain out.  After facing two poor offenses in the Commanders with Mariota and the hapless Eagles offense, the Lions will meet their match this week.  Keep in mind they gave up 27 points to the Vikings and JJ McCarthy in their last home game, and McCarthy couldn't have looked worse since.  The Giants will easily get into the 20's while the Lions get into the 30's and we easily cash this OVER 49.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on New England Patriots -7

Note: I really like Patriots O 29.5 team total. I also like 6-point teasers with the Patriots -1. Good options to pair with them are the 49ers -1, Rams -0.5, Cowboys +9.5.

The Cincinnati Bengals fell to 3-7 on the season with their 34-12 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.  It was a pretty pathetic effort considering they were off their bye week and with a chance to sweep the Steelers in the season series, which would have kept their hopes alive to make the playoffs.  Now all hope is gone, and I question how much they want to show up this week.

WR Jamar Chase got suspended for this game after losing his temper and spitting on Jalen Ramsey.  The offense will be lost without Chase, who was forming a great chemistry with Flacco.  Now Flacco is clearly nursing a shoulder injury that he is playing through and just hasn't been the same since suffering it.  The Bengals managed just 297 yards against a poor Pittsburgh defense last week and got a lot of those yards in garbage time with the game decided.

But the biggest problem for the Bengals is having the worst defense in the NFL.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.4 points per game, 32nd at 418.2 yards per game and 31st at 6.5 yards per play.  The kicker was giving up 39 points and 502 yards to Justin Fields and the Jets and 47 points and 576 total yards to Caleb Williams and the Bears going into the bye.

If things couldn't get any worse for this Bengals defense, they are now without four of their best players on defense in DE Trey Hendrickson, DE Shemar Stewart, DE Cam Sample and CB Cam Taylor-Britt.  You can just imagine what this Patriots offense is going to do to them.

Drake Maye is among the MVP favorites while leading the Patriots to eight consecutive victories coming into this one.  Maye is completing 71.9% of his passes for 2,836 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 285 yards and two scores.  Now he gets both WR Boutte (341 yards, 5 TD) and RB Stevenson (279 yards, 3 TD) back from injury this week.  And rookie RB Henderson has scored 5 touchdowns in his last two games without Stevenson and is coming into his own.

What's most amazing about the Patriots is that they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now despite not having their bye week yet.  They are refreshed with a mini-bye week after beating the Jets 27-14 last Thursday.  You can't run on their defense, which ranks 1st against the run at 84.7 yards per game and 8th at 3.9 yards per carry.  So the Bengals are going to have to be one-dimensional, which isn't a recipe for success in the NFL.  This will get ugly quickly, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see some quit in the Bengals in the 2H.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Weber State -3

Weber State has been impressive against a brutal schedule this season.  After opening with a 130-38 win over West Coast Baptist, the Wildcats played three straight brutal road games and nearly pulled off the upset in all three.

It started with a 92-89 (OT) road loss as 15.5-point dogs at Utah.  The Wildcats followed that up with a 83-73 road loss at Utah State as 22-point dogs.  Then they only lost 79-70 at UC-Irvine as 11-point dogs.

The Wildcats were happy to be back home for a 91-85 win over Campbell as 1-point favorites in which they led by 22 with 10 minutes to go.  Now they have had the last two days off and will relish this opportunity to get another home win over UT-Arlington.

This is a bad UT-Arlington team picked to finish near the bottom of the WAC.  The Mavericks went 13-18 last season and returned just one starter from that team in Raysean Seamster, the only current player averaging in double figures scoring for them.

UT-Arlington is coming off a 71-67 loss to Campbell yesterday to give them a common opponent with Weber State.  The Mavericks will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 5 days, while the Wildcats have had the last two days off.  This rest advantage is just an added bonus as the Wildcats are the much superior team anyway.  Bet Weber State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on WKU/LSU OVER 48.5

LSU's offense has been held down this season largely due to playing a rugged SEC schedule that has been the 6th-toughest in the entire country.  Garrett Nussmeier got banged up and wasn't the same but played through injury.  I like the fact that they have now shut him down for the season and turned over the keys to Mississippi State transfer Michael Van Buren.

Van Buren played very well at Mississippi State last season taking over for an injured Blake Shapen, so he has big-time SEC experience.  He played half of the Alabama game and was the much more effective QB.  And he started and finished last week's win over Arkansas.  Van Buren gives them more mobility to make up for a shaky offensive line, too.

He is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio while rushing for 60 yards and a score thus far.  Now he gets a chance to let his hair down and step out of SEC play and face one of the worst defenses in the country in Western Kentucky this week.  I have no doubt LSU is going to hang one of its biggest offense outputs of the season against WKU this week in the final home game at night in Baton Rouge.

Western Kentucky has played the 154th-ranked schedule in the country this season out of terrible C-USA.  Despite the easy schedule, they still rank 91st in total defense at 398.8 yards per game and 87th at 5.7 yards per play allowed.  Against the best offense they have faced, they allowed 45 points and 508 total yards to Toledo.  It will be a similar result for their D against this LSU offense.

Western Kentucky profiles as an OVER team ranking 37th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds with a pass-happy offense.  The Hilltoppers rank 12th in the country at 296.1 passing yards per game.  They will relish this opportunity to test their offense up against a banged up, overrated LSU defense.  I think they can get at least a couple scores here to help contribute to us cashing this OVER 48.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico -3

New Mexico is quietly 7-3 this season and in a five-way tie for 2nd place in the Mountain West with a real shot to make the conference championship game in head coach Jason Eck's first season on the job.  They are highly motivated to win these last two games and hopefully win out on some tiebreakers to get into the title game.

New Mexico has won four straight including a 33-14 home win over Utah State and a 40-35 upset road win at UNLV as 4.5-point dogs.  They had a bye week after that UNLV game and returned from it last week a little rusty.  That helps explain how they struggled to put away Colorado State 20-17.  But they lost fumbled four times and lost all four fumbles, which most teams wouldn't be able to overcome.  They were able to, and that's a good sign of the character of this team.

While New Mexico has everything to play for right now, Air Force just suffered its 7th loss of the season and will not be going to a bowl game because of it.  The Falcons will be playing for a 4th consecutive week after four wars against Army, San Jose State and UConn.  And the biggest reason I'm fading the Falcons this week is because they just lost their all-everything QB to a broken arm in that 26-16 loss at UConn.

Now the Falcons have to fly clear back across the country and play without their leader and best player in QB Liam Szarka.  He has rushed for 923 yards and 13 TD while also throwing for 1,290 yards and 9 TD on 10.8 per attempt.  His backup Kemper Hodges is a converted fullback who isn't nearly as explosive.

The matchup really favors the Lobos, too.  Their biggest strength is stopping the run as they rank 13th in the country allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game and 24th at 3.4 yards per carry.  They are holding opponents to 46 yards per game and 1.2 per carry less than their season averages.  They are elite at stopping the run and will be ready for this triple-option.

New Mexico has a solid, balanced offense that averages 234 passing yards per game, 151 rushing yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  The Lobos will feast on one of the worst defenses in the country in the Falcons, who rank 122nd in scoring at 32.3 points per game allowed, 129th at 446.6 yards per game and 135th at 7.4 yards per play.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on New Mexico/Air Force UNDER 55.5

Air Force lost their all-everything QB to a broken arm in that 26-16 loss at UConn last week.  Their offense will be lost without their leader and best player in QB Liam Szarka.  He has rushed for 923 yards and 13 TD while also throwing for 1,290 yards and 9 TD on 10.8 per attempt.  His backup Kemper Hodges is a converted fullback who isn't nearly as explosive.

This is a great matchup for New Mexico's defense.  Their biggest strength is stopping the run as they rank 13th in the country allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game and 24th at 3.4 yards per carry.  They are holding opponents to 46 yards per game and 1.2 per carry less than their season averages.  They are elite at stopping the run and will be ready for this triple-option.

After being dreadful to start the season, Air Force's defense has had a huge turn here down the stretch and has allowed just 21 points per game in its last four games.  I think they can hold New Mexico in check enough to keep this game UNDER the total.

There will be very few possessions in this game as both teams like to play at a snail's pace.  Air Force ranks 119th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 28.7 seconds.  They will probably go even slower now without Szarka and with a backup QB to try and shorten this game as much as possible.  New Mexico ranks 96th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.4 seconds and will be in no hurry, either.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pitt/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia Tech -2.5

Georgia Tech will host one of the most important games in program history Saturday night at 7:00 EST.  With a trip to the ACC Championship Game on the line, you can bet this will be one of the most raucous home crowds the Yellow Jackets have ever had.  I don't think it is being factored into this line enough.

It's also Senior Night for one of the best players in program history in senior QB Haynes King.  He is one of the most underrated players in the country.  He has completed 72.7% of his passes for 2,259 yards with a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 807 yards and 14 scores.  I trust in King to lead this team to victory. Saturday night.

What I don't trust is Pitt freshman QB Mason Heintschel to be ready for this moment.  He was exposed against Notre Dame throwing several balls into coverage that should have been picked off.  This Pitt offense was held to 15 points and 219 total yards by the Fighting Irish.  That was even after a TD on the final play of the game in garbage time.  Heintschel finished 16-of-33 passing for 126 yards with a INT in the loss.

Making matters worse is that Pitt star RB Desmond Reid was injured in the 4th quarter of that blowout loss when he shouldn't have even been in the game.  That leaves his status for this game very much in question.  Pitt only rushes for 119.3 yards per game and 3.6 per carry as an offense on the season so they won't even be able to take advantage of Georgia Tech's biggest weakness on D, which is against the run.

I think this line is lower than it should be because Georgia Tech struggled with Boston College last week on the road, needing a last-second FG to win 36-34.  The Yellow Jackets were coming off their bye week and they were clearly flat, at least defensively.  But in the back of their minds they knew they could lose that game and it wouldn't matter because they would need to win this game against Pitt to make the ACC Championship Game either way.  

Yet they still racked up 628 total yards and put together a game-winning drive to show their championship mettle.  They will show it off again Saturday night if the game is on the line late.  I trust senior King to make the plays necessary and freshman Heintschel to fold under the pressure of the moment.  

The Yellow Jackets are a perfect 11-0 SU at home over the last two seasons with one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country.  It will be a raucous atmosphere for this one and likely the best home atmosphere over the last two seasons.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Texas State -17.5

Texas State is 4 plays away from being 8-2.  If they were 8-2, they would be much bigger favorites here against lifeless Louisiana-Monroe.  Instead they are 4-6 and scratching, clawing and fighting to make a bowl game.

Texas State has two OT losses and three losses by 3 points or fewer.  When you look at their numbers, they are much closer to a 8-2 team than one that is 4-6.  And that played out last week when they handed Southern Miss their first conference loss of the season in a dominant 41-14 victory.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the worst team in the Sun Belt in ULM and it should result in another blowout victory.

Injuries have decimated the Warhawks as they sit at 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS this season.  The Warnhawks are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by double-digits, and four of the six losses coming by 23 points or more.

Injuries at QB have been the biggest issue as the Warhawks are scoring just 11.7 points per game during their six-game losing streak.  They have no chance of keeping up with one of the best offenses in the country here.  Texas State ranks 24th in scoring offense at 35.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 474.4 yards per game and 20th at 6.7 yards per play.  Don't expect them to let up one ounce with their bowl lives at stake.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee-Martin -8

UT-Martin has been impressive thus far.  They opened with a 86-81 upset win at UNLV as 17.5-point dogs, came back with a 97-42 win over Kentucky Christian, and backed it up with a 78-67 road win at Bradley as 15.5-point dogs.  They gave Florida State all they wanted in a 87-73 road loss as 20-point dogs last time out.

Now the Skyhawks take a big step down in class here against a Prairie View A&M team they should blow out.  They are picked to finish near the bottom of the SWAC alongside two of the worst teams in the country in Arkansas Pine Bluff and Mississippi Valley State.

It's easy to see why as the Panthers lost all five starters from last season after Braelon Bush (13.4 PPG) decided to transfer to Chicago State late in the process.  This is a team that went 5-27 last year and is well on its way to another disastrous season.

Prairie View A&M lost 105-62 as 20-point dogs at Wichita State, by 27 at Oklahoma State and by 18 at Missouri.  It won't get much easier against this underrated Tennessee-Martin squad today, and another double-digit loss is in store for the Panthers.  Bet UT-Martin Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston PK

The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It's just another example of head coach Willie Fritz proving he can turn around a program after doing the same thing at Georgia Southern and Tulane before arriving in Houston.  The Cougars are now 8-2 overall and 5-2 in the conference and very much alive to play for a Big 12 title.

The spot favors Houston as well as the Cougars are off their bye week following a 30-27 road win at UCF.  That was a very misleading final as the Cougars outgained the Knights 433 to 282, or by 151 total yards.  They were able to overcome 4 turnovers, the 2nd consecutive game they have turned it over 4 times.  You can bet they have been working on ball security over the bye week and will be buttoned up for this huge game against TCU.

"I think it was really good for us," Fritz said of the bye week. "We had a team meeting on Monday, and I told them our No. 1 goal was to get as healthy as we possibly can.  So we were very careful with probably five or six guys who were banged up.  We've been getting them through the last two to three games. Now it looks like all of those guys are really healthy."

While the Cougars have everything to play for, the TCU Horned Frogs are dead after consecutive losses to Iowa State at home and BYU on the road.  They were blasted 44-13 at BYU to fall to 6-4 straight up and 3-4 in conference play this season.  I just don't think they'll show up this week with all of their dreams of winning a Big 12 title gone now.

Houston QB Conner Weignman has revived his career completing 64.9% of his passes for 2,113 yards with a 18-to-7 TD/INT ratio and 8.2 per attempt, while also rushing for 412 yards and 9 TD.  This is one of the most improved offenses in the country.

No question Houston has the better defense in this matchup.  The Cougars are allowing 22.1 points per game, 333.1 yards per game and 5.0 per play this season.  TCU allows 26.5 points per game, 374.3 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play.  We are getting the better, more motivated, more rested team at home at a PK here which is a tremendous value.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +8.5

Tulane appeared as the Group of 5 team in the 12-team playoff rankings Tuesday night.  It just means the committee believes they are the most likely team to get in.  It also puts a target squarely on their back, and puts the level of expectations for them higher than they should be.

Head coach Jon Sumrall was right when he said his team didn't look anything like a playoff team.  Sumrall's name is also popping up for several head coaching vacancies, which is a major distraction.  The Green Wave have all the pressure on them this week, and I don't expect them to handle it very well.

I love this spot for Temple.  They lost by 1 to Army going into their bye last week, and now they sit at 5-5 and one win away from bowl eligibility in head coach KC Keeler's first season on the job.  They have North Texas on the road on deck next week, so they know this is their prime opportunity to pull off the upset and get that all-important 6th win as they will be bigger underdogs at North Texas next week.

Tulane is a tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week.  The 11-point win over FAU at home as 17-point favorites was far from impressive last week.  They actually gave up 472 total yards to FAU and were outgained by 69 yards and fortunate to even win the game as they were +3 in turnovers.  And this has been a terrible, leaky Tulane defense that can't be trusted to get margin.

Tulane allowed 48 points and 523 total yards in a 48-26 road loss at UTSA three games ago.  They allowed 32 points and 435 total yards to Memphis, and then those 472 yards to FAU in their last three games.  They allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA, 368 to Memphis and 375 to FAU.

Now they must face one of the most underrated QB's in the country in Temple QB Evan Simon, who has an eye-popping 22-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He also has some mobility with 198 rushing yards and 2 TD.  Simon has a trio of reliable receivers in Hollawayne (34 receptions, 6 TD), Bermudez (32, 4 TD) and Chase (32, 3 TD) and a reliable TE in Clarke (26, 4 TD).  Ducker (729 rushing yards, 6 TD) provides the balance.

Tulane has been far from impressive on the road this season.  The Green Wave beat Memphis by 6 which is their best road win.  They also needed OT to beat South Alabama 33-31, which is a 3-7 South Alabama team currently.  They lost by 22 at UTSA and by 35 at Ole Miss.  Temple beat UTSA outright as 6.5-point dogs and should have beaten Navy in a 1-point loss as 10-point dogs but were done in by the refs in two games against AAC teams that are on Tulane's level.  Bet Temple Saturday.

20* USC/Oregon CBS No-Brainer on OVER 59

Two of the best offenses in the country square off Saturday in what should be a shootout between former Pac-12 rivals USC and Oregon, who have been notorious for playing in shootouts when they get together.  It will be no different now that they are in the Big Ten.

USC ranks 11th in scoring offense at 38.2 points per game and 7th in total offense at 488.9 yards per game.  More impressive yet, the Trojans rank 2nd averaging 7.4 yards per play.  The problem is while the defense is improved, it is also very injured right now after losing three starters to injury in a physical game against Iowa last week.  S Bishop Fitzgerald (51 tackles, 5 INT), S Kamari Ramsey (27 tackles) and DE Braylan Shelby (22 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT) all left the game and did not return.

Oregon ranks 7th in scoring offense at 39.0 points per game, 12th in total offense at 475.4 yards per game and 3rd at 7.4 yards per play.  So these are two of the top three offenses in the country from a yards per play perspective.  Oregon's offensive numbers are also tamed a bit due to playing in some poor weather a few games, and the same can be said for USC's offense having to play in some poor weather this season against Iowa and Nebraska.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout Saturday with temps around 50, no wind and no rain.  USC and Oregon have combined for at least 55 points in nine consecutive meetings, including 63 or more in eight of those nine.  They have averaged 75.2 combined points per game in those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Marshall/Appalachian State OVER 54.5

Marshall is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  The Thundering Herd are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  That includes 70 with Middle Tennessee, 105 with Louisiana, 72 with ODU, 87 with Texas State and 71 with Coastal Carolina in five of them.  This total of 54.5 is way too short for a game involving Marshall right now.

The Thundering Herd rank 39th in scoring offense at 32.6 points per game.  But their defense is atrocious, ranking 117th in scoring defense at 31.3 points per game, 109th in total defense at 412.3 yards per game and 118th at 6.2 yards per play.

This will be a big step down in class for this App State offense after having to face two of the top three defenses in the Sun Belt in Old Dominion and James Madison in recent weeks.  The Mountaineers really profile as an OVER team because they rank 9th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.7 seconds.

Marshall QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is completing 68% of his passes for 1,761 yards with a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 588 yards and 4 scores.  He should light up this awful App State defense that ranks 89th in scoring at 30.4 points per game and 85th in total defense at 409.9 yards per game.  This is a tired App State defense that just allowed 58 points to James Madison last week.

The Mountaineers were a little stuck in the mud offensively not only because of the tough schedule of late, but also because they were stubborn and stuck with junior QB AJ Swann too long.  Well, Swann is out with an injury this week, which opens the door for their better QB in JJ Kohl to take the reigns the rest of the way.  Kohl has a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio and 7.1 per attempt compared to Swann with a 10-to-8 TD/INT ratio and 6.7 per attempt.  Kohl is the better option and will torch this Marshall defense this week.  

Marshall beat App State 52-37 for 89 combined points last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, less than 10 MPH winds and only a 10% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets ML +107

Charlotte Hornets are a much better team with La'Melo Ball (21.6 PPG, 9.6 APG) is in the lineup.  The offense runs much faster and smoother with him at PG.  The Hornets are basically fully healthy now with Brandon Miller (14.5 PPG) making his return after sitting out the last 13 games after starting the first two games of the season.  He's the reason many were excited about the Hornets this season.

The Clippers have been a much worse defensive team without Kawhi Leonard (24.3 PPG) and Derrick Jones Jr. (10.5 PPG).  They are also without Bradley Beal for the season now, and the Norman Powell trade couldn't look any worse than it does right now.

The Clippers are 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS and there's no end in sight.  They are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games with their lone win coming in OT against the Mavericks.  They have no business being favored on the road here against a much healthier, better Hornets team in their current form.  

This is also a 10:00 AM body clock game for the Clippers starting at 1:00 EST, something they are not used to and I think it will take them some time to wake up.  Bet the Hornets on the Money Line Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Hornets OVER 226.5

Charlotte Hornets is a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (21.6 PPG, 9.6 APG) is in the lineup.  The offense runs much faster and smoother with him at PG.  The Hornets are basically fully healthy now with Brandon Miller (14.5 PPG) making his return after sitting out the last 13 games after starting the first two games of the season.  He's the reason many were excited about the Hornets this season.

The Clippers have been a much worse defensive team without Kawhi Leonard and Derrick Jones Jr.  That means more minutes for guys like John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic who are all offense and no defense.

The Clippers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games finishing with 230 combined points with the Magic, 239 with the Celtics, 228 at the end of regulation with the Mavericks and 246 with the Nuggets.

The OVER is 6-3 in the nine games in which Ball has played this season finishing with 227 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  This total of 226.5 is very short for a game involving the Hornets with Ball in the lineup.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +31.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes are the top-ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to.  And the spot is not a good one for the Buckeyes, who have their big rivalry game on deck against Michigan next week.  They just want to get in and get out with a victory here and aren't worried about running up the score knowing if they just win out they will make the 12-team playoff.

Ohio State needed a TD in the final minutes to cover the 33-point spread against UCLA at home last week in a 48-10 win.  That's a UCLA team that was playing without starting QB Nico.  In that game Ohio State star receiver Jeremiah Smith suffered an injury and was forced from the game.

Ohio State was already without Carnell Tate (39 receptions, 711 yards, 7 TD) and now Smith (69 receptions, 902 yards, 10 TD) is banged up.  I would be surprised if either of these two star receivers played this week as the Buckeyes know they can win this game without them just by running the football and grinding out a win.  The Buckeyes have no problem grinding out games as they rank dead last (136th) in tempo in the entire country snapping the ball every 31.5 seconds.  That limits possessions and makes it more difficult for them to get margin.

I like the spot for Rutgers.  They are coming off their bye week so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Ohio State.  They sit at 5-5 and one win shy of bowl eligibility and are max motivated.  They will have a chance to gain that eligibility next week too against Penn State, but they will be a dog in both games so they won't be looking ahead at that game.  I think they'll empty out the playbook this week trying to pull off the upset.

Ohio State hasn't faced many offenses as potent as this Rutgers offense.  The Scarlet Knights are scoring 30 points per game while ranking 43rd in total offense at 420.5 yards per game and 23rd in passing offense at 277.4 yards per game.  Athan Kaliakmanis is one of the best QB's the Buckeyes have faced this season.  He is completing 62.3% of his passes for 2,705 yards with a 17-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.3 per attempt.  

The Scarlet Knights have underrated playmakers at receiver too, and Antwan Raymond has already topped 1,000 rushing yards on the season with 11 TD.  This Rutgers offense won't be in a hurry either knowing that limiting possessions is their best chance to keep it close.  This just feels like a really sleepy spot for Ohio State with Michigan on deck.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on SMU -2.5

The spot and the motivation really favors SMU in this showdown with Louisville Saturday.  That's why they should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over Louisville, and I'll gladly take the value and lay the short number with the Mustangs at home here.

SMU is still alive to make the ACC Championship and thus the 12-team playoff.  They are one of four ACC teams with one conference loss and two will make it.  They have everything to play for, and they are off their bye week so they have had two full weeks to rest up and get ready to beat Louisville here.

Louisville is coming off consecutive gut-wrenching ACC losses.  They were upset by Cal at home by 3 and upset by Clemson at home by 1.  They now have three conference losses and no shot of winning the ACC Championship.  I question how they'll get back up off the mat here knowing all their dreams are crushed after they were sitting in such a prime position to make a run at a title.

Louisville hasn't been the same offensively since losing their best offensive weapon in RB Isaac Brown (782 yards, 5 TD, 8.6/carry) to a season-ending injury.  Now QB Miller Moss (2,344 yards, 11 TD) is questionable.  Brown rushed for 130 yards in leading them to a 28-16 win at VA Tech.  But he has missed the last two games, and they managed just 23 points at the end of regulation against Cal and 19 against Clemson.  They won't find much success against this improving SMU defense, either.

SMU really needed this bye week to recover after playing 6 straight weeks including a 26-20 (OT) win over Miami after a tough 1-point road loss at Wake Forest.  I was impressed with how they handled their business on the road at Boston College going into the bye.  They blasted the Eagles 45-13 on the road behind 574 total yards of offense.  Veteran QB Kevin Jennings is playing his best football of the season here down the stretch.  He threw for 365 yards on Miami's vaunted defense and 326 on Boston College.  

The Mustangs have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country.  They have gone 16-2 SU at home over the last three seasons.  Head coach Rhett Lashlee really emphasizes how important it is to defend their home turf, and it has been a big reason he has been one of the better recruiters in the country as well.  Bet SMU Saturday.

20* Hawaii/UNLV FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii +3

The Hawaii Warriors are rolling since Las Vegas HS legend QB Micah Alejado got healthy.  The Warriors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall scoring 39.0 points per game in those five games with Alejado throwing at least 3 TD passes in all five.  That includes a 38-6 home win over San Diego State as 6.5-point dogs last time out.  They even called off the dogs in the 4th quarter against the the Aztecs, who have one of the best defenses in the country and sit alone in 1st place in the Mountain West.

Now the Warriors return from their bye week refreshed and ready to make a run at the MWC title themselves.  They are in a four-way tie for 2nd place with a real shot to make the title game.  You can bet Alejado will have a ton of friends and family in attendance in his home town of Las Vegas, and this will be a very pro Hawaii crowd because of it.

UNLV is one of the biggest frauds in the country.  The Rebels are 8-2 this season against the 115th schedule.  They have been extremely fortunate in close games with five wins by 7 points or fewer.  That includes their 29-26 (OT) home win over Utah State last week where they were very fortunate to win thanks to three missed field goals and a missed extra point by the Aggies.

Now the Rebels will be on a short week and playing their 4th consecutive game off an OT game.  They are at a big rest disadvantage here facing a Hawaii team off a bye.  No question the Warriors are the better team in this matchup when you look at the numbers as well, and the wrong team is favored.  Hawaii allows 349.1 yards per game and 5.7 per play this season, while UNLV allows 448.6 yards per game and 6.6 per play.  I'll gladly back the better, more rested team as an underdog in this one.  Bet Hawaii Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Jazz OVER 235.5

The Jazz are 4-0 OVER in their last four games combining for 266 points with the Lakers, 254 with the Bulls at the end of regulation, 254 with the Hawks and 270 with the Pacers.  The Jazz rank 8th in pace and 25th in defensive rating, and as long as Markkanen is healthy and playing the Jazz are a pretty solid offensive team as well.

What has really stood out is just how high-scoring these Utah games have been when they are at home in Salt Lake City and dictating the pace.  Opposing teams tend to get more tired in the altitude and it affects them defensively more than anything.  The Jazz are 6-1 OVER in all home games this season finishing with 233 or more combined points in all seven games, and and 254 or more in six of those seven games.

The Thunder will have no problem running with the Jazz tonight.  In fact, they have motivation to win by as much as possible since this is a NBA Cup game and point differential is a tiebreaker.  That means they should keep their foot on the gas for four quarters and lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket by hanging a massive number on this porous Jazz defense.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Thunder and Jazz finishing with 237 or more combined points in seven of those eight meetings.  This total of 235.5 is very low for a game involving these two teams when you look at the head-to-head history.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Arkansas State/SMU OVER 172.5

SMU looks like an offensive wagon this season with three double-digit scorers back from a team that won 24 games in Andy Enfield's first season last year.  The Mustangs are 5-0 led by an offense that is averaging 92.0 points per game on 50.3% shooting and 37.8% from 3-point range.

The Mustangs have scored at least 87 points in four of their five games.  The three returning starters are all off to great starts in Boopie Miller (20.0 PPG, 7.8 APG), BJ Edwards (14.2 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Samet Yigitoglu (12.0 PPG).  Jacksonville State transfer Jaron Pierre Jr. (18.6 PPG) combines with Miller to form one of the best backcourts in the country.  Wichita State transfer Corey Washington (13.8 PPG) has a great inside-out game.

The Mustangs want to run ranking 18th in the country in average length of offensive possession at 14.5 seconds.  They are 80th in adjusted tempo.  Now they face an Arkansas State team that also wants to run under first-year head coach Ryan Pannone, who engineered Alabama's Top 5 offense for Nate Oats each of the past two seasons.

The Red Wolves are 3-1 OVER in their four games this season while ranking 36th in adjusted tempo and 20th in average length of offensive possession at 14.6 seconds.  They even got St. Mary's to run with them last time out in a game that went over the total by 8 points despite them shooting just 37.7% from the field.  They will find more holes in this SMU defense to exploit as they are pretty lackluster on that end of the court allowing 85 points to Butler and 91 to Murray State.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cal Poly +13.5

Utah is 5-0 with four wins by 9 points or less.  The Utes are one of the most overrated teams in the country due to that unblemished 5-0 SU record, but they are 0-5 ATS and I don't expect them to cover tonight, either.

They beat San Jose State by 9 as 12.5-point favorites, Weber State by 3 in OT at 15.5-point favorites, Holy Cross by 18 as 21-point favorites, Sam Houston State by 6 as 13-point favorites and IPFW by 8 as 13-point favorites.  That win over IPFW was really bad when you consider IPFW is 2-4 this season with a 12-point loss to a bad WMU team, a 26-point loss to Ohio State and a 19-point loss to Grand Canyon.  IPFW's only two wins came against Boyce and Dominican IL.

Cal Poly is better than most those teams that Utah has already faced.  And we've seen Cal Poly play well on the road already upsetting Seattle as 10-point road dogs, only losing by 14 as 18.5-point dogs at Colorado State and only losing by 8 as 7.5-point dogs at Montana.  That's a very good Montana team that already upset UNLV on the road and nearly upset Texas A&M on the road in a 5-point defeat.  

Utah is in for another dog fight tonight.  The spot favors the Mustangs as they've had the last five days off to prepare for this game.  Utah will be playing its 2nd game in 3 days after that lackluster 8-point win over IPFW on Tuesday.  Bet Cal Poly Thursday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cal Poly/Utah OVER 167

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted tempo this season despite playing four of their first five games on the road.  They are going to play their style no matter the venue, which is as fast as possible getting a shot up every 14.7 seconds thus far.  

They also shoot a ton of 3-pointers averaging 31.4 attempts per game and allow a ton of 3-pointers with opponents averaging 32.6 attempts per game.  That leads to more fast breaks and more scoring with so many 3-pointers hoisted and long rebounds.

Utah also likes to play fast and is a much better offensive team than a defensive team.  The Utes rank 82nd in adjusted offense and 144th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 86.6 points per game and allowing 77.8 points per game.  Cal Poly is allowing 85.4 points per game this season.

Utah is 5-0 OVER in all games this season as oddsmakers just haven't been able to set their totals high enough.  Cal Poly is 2-0 OVER in its last two games combining for 172 points with Colorado State and 172 with Montana.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Bills/Texans AFC No-Brainer on Houston +6

I'll gladly take 6 points with the best defense in the NFL at home against anyone.  The Texans rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.3 points per game, 1st in total defense at 258.1 yards per game and 2nd at 4.8 yards per play.  They are pretty much 1st or 2nd in every major defensive statistic this season.

That's why they can get away with having backup QB Davis Mills.  I think Mills is one of the best backups in the NFL, and it's not that much of a downgrade from CJ Stroud to him, especially with how healthy everyone else is around him right now.  Mills is completng 60% of his passes for 726 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season, mostly from the last two weeks.  Hew threw for 293 yards against the Jaguars and 274 yards against the Titans the last two weeks.

The Texans are fully healthy outside of Stroud and NB Jalen Pitre.  That makes them a dangerous team right now.  The Bills are far from full strength, which makes them vulnerable and explains how poorly they have played on the road this season.  The Bills are without TE Dalton Kincaid, WR Curtis Samuel and WR Mecole Hardman on offense.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, SS Taylor Rapp and FS Damar Hamlin on defense.

Injuries along the defensive line are a big reason the Bills rank 31st in rushing defense allowing 153.0 yards per game and 31st at 5.4 yards per carry allowed.  The Texans know they can get what they want on the ground with Woody Marks and company, which will take a lot of pressure off of Mills having to do it all with his arm.

Two of the Bills worst performances came in two of their last three road games.  They lost 24-14 at Atlanta and 30-13 at Miami.  Josh Allen isn't nearly as good on the road, and he had one of the worst games of his career the last time he faced Houston on the road.  Last season, Allen went 9-of-30 passing for 131 yards in a 23-20 road loss to the Texans.  Houston outgained Buffalo 425 to 276 in that contest, or by 149 total yards.

In their last two games with Mills at QB, they outgained the Jaguars 412 to 213, or by 199 total yards.  They outgained the Titans 315 to 229, or by 86 yards.  That was a Titans team coming off a bye and getting several key players back as well as it was a tricky spot.  The Texans need wins like blood sitting at 5-5 on the season and need this win more than the Bills do.  They haven't lost at home by more than 3 points all season, and they have just one home loss by more than 5 points over the last two seasons combined.  Bet the Texans Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Blazers OVER 243.5

This game has high-scoring shootout written all over it.  It's a game between two Top 3 teams in pace with the Blazers ranking 2nd and the Bulls 3rd behind only the Miami Heat in that department.  There will be a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points.

The Bulls are 9-4 OVER this season despite playing 12 of their 13 games without Coby White.  Well, White just returned and poured in 27 points in 30 minutes in his season debut.  He will make this Bulls offense led by Josh Giddey even more potent moving forward.

The Blazers are 11-3 OVER in their 14 games this season.  They have played some poor offensive teams here lately and are still 7-1 OVER in their last eight games.  They went for 242 combined points with the Pelicans who were without Zion and Poole, 256 combined points with Houston, 271 with Dallas and 237 with Phoenix, who was without Allen and Green two of their best scorers.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago -2

The Chicago Bulls have opened 7-6 SU & 8-4-1 ATS this season despite playing all but one game without Coby White.  Well, White just made his season debut with 27 points in 30 minutes off the bench.  The Bulls are now as healthy as they have been all season and one of the more underrated teams in the NBA.

The Blazers are struggling going 1-5 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming against one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Pelicans who were without Zion and Poole.  This is a very tough spot for the Blazers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 127-110 home loss to the Suns last night.

They lost by 17 at home to a Suns team that was missing two of their best players in Jalen Green and Grayson Allen, too.  Injuries are a problem for the Blazers right now being without Jrue Holiday (16.7 PPG, 8.3 APG).  They also could be without Jerami Grant (18.3 PPG) who is battling illness and sat out last night.  

The Bulls are 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings with the Blazers.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Weber State -2

Weber State has been impressive against a brutal schedule this season.  After opening with a 130-38 win over West Coast Baptist, the Wildcats have played three straight brutal road games and nearly pulled off the upset in all three.

It started with a 92-89 (OT) road loss as 15.5-point dogs at Utah.  The Wildcats followed that up with a 83-73 road loss at Utah State as 22-point dogs.  And last time out they only lost 79-70 at UC-Irvine as 11-point dogs.  It's safe to say they are happy to be back home tonight and will take advantage and get in the win column.

Weber State takes a big step down in class here against the Campbell Camels.  It's a rebuilding Campbell team with 32-year-old Florida assistant John Andrzejek.  They lose four of their top five scorers from a team that went 15-17 last year.

Campbell was blasted by 32 at Wisconsin and then played a competitive game at rebuilding West Virginia in a 8-point loss in their first two games of the season.  They failed to cover in a 9-point win as 9.5-point favorites against a bad Western Michigan team at home.  They are coming off a blowout home win over Mid Atlantic Christian.  Bet Weber State Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -6.5

I released the Heat -6.5 with the anticipation that the Golden State Warriors would rest Steph Curry among others.  The Warriors are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th road game in 9 days, which is as tough of a rest situation as there is in the NBA.  Steve Kerr usually plays it smart and rests his stars.

The result has been even better than expected.  Not only is Curry (27.9 PPG) out, but Jimmy Butler (20.1 PPG), Jonathan Kumingo (13.8 PPG) and Draymond Green (7.9 PPG) have all been ruled out since.  Buddy Hield (6.6 PPG) may sit as well.  The Warriors will be sending a G League team out there tonight.

The Heat made the mistake of taking the Cavaliers lightly without their superstars a week ago tonight.  After upsetting the Cavs 140-138 (OT) two nights prior, the Heat didn't show up in a 130-116 loss to the Cavs and their backups.  They talked about how disappointed they were in their performance after the game and the fact that they took the Cavs lightly.  They won't make the same mistake a week later.  Look for the Heat to bury the Warriors early and not let them up for air for 4 quarters.  

The Heat are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their six home games this season with their lone loss coming in that letdown to the Cavs.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pacers OVER 234.5

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy.  Well, he is healthy and playing now, and the Hornets play with a lot more pace with him running the show.  They face another dead nuts OVER team in Indiana tonight in what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the week.

The Pacers rank 10th in pace this season despite playing without Tyrese Haliburton for the entire season and TJ McConnell for 90% of it thus far.  McConnell is back to run the offense, so the Pacers should play even faster moving forward.  Indiana is 3-1 OVER in its last four games combining for 239 points with Detroit and a bunch of backups for the Pistons, 240 with the Raptors, 231 with the Suns and 280 with the Jazz.

These are two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as the Pacers rank 26th in defensive rating while the Hornets rank 23rd.  Both teams should get whatever they want offensively in what should be a high-scoring, fast-paced game tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kent State +9.5

Kent State kept its bowl hopes alive with a 42-35 (OT) home win over Akron last week.  The Golden Flashes sit at 4-6 on the season with a real shot to make a bowl if they win this game tonight.  They have lowly Northern Illinois on deck next week.

It's time to 'sell high' on Central Michigan after going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and in contention for the MAC Championship Game now.  The three wins came against Bowling Green, UMass and Buffalo, three of the worst teams in the MAC.

Central Michigan is just 1-4 SU in its last five road games with the lone win coming against Bowling Green who was without its starting QB.  They lost by 6 at Akron for a common opponent.  Kent State is 3-1 SU at home this season with the lone loss coming by 3 points.

Kent State QB Dru DeShields is grossly underrated.  He has a 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.  He went 17-of-25 for 317 yards against Akron last time out.  I think he'll have what it takes to keep this game competitive against Central Michigan with the Golden Flashes having a shot to pull off the upset in the 4th quarter.  Bet Kent State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Mount St. Mary's +20.5

Maryland is a rebuilding team under first-year head coach Buzz Williams.  The Terrapins are 1-3 ATS beating Coppin State by 22 as 28.5-point favorites, losing outright at home to Georgetown by 10 as 5-point favorites, and only beating Alcorn State by 20 as 29.5-point favorites.

But the Terrapins are now getting too much respect off their 89-82 upset road win as 8.5-point dogs at Marquette.  That's an overrated Marquette team that also lost by 23 to Indiana.  It also sets the Terrapins up for a letdown spot after Buzz Williams beat his former team.  They have the Player Era Festival on deck in Las Vegas, making this a sandwich spot as well.

Mount St. Mary's has been impressive going 3-1 ATS against a very tough schedule.  The Mountaineers only lost by 16 at WVU as 19.5-point dogs, beat St. Francis by 8 as 6.5-point road favorites and only lost by 17 as 25.5-point dogs at Cincinnati.  If they can hang with WVU and Cincinnati, they can certainly stay within 20.5 points of this Maryland team tonight.  Bet Mount St. Mary's Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Jazz/Lakers OVER 238.5

The Jazz are 3-0 OVER in their last three games combining for 254 points with the Bulls at the end of regulation, 254 with the Hawks and 270 with the Pacers.  The Jazz rank 10th in pace and 24th in defensive rating, and as long as Markkanen is healthy and playing the Jazz are a pretty solid offensive team as well.

The Lakers are expected to be fully healthy for the first time this season with LeBron James making his debut.  Doncic and Reaves have really clicked, and adding LeBron to the fold should only make them even more of a juggernaut offensively.  Gabe Vincent also makes his return.

The Lakers are 9-5 OVER in their 14 games this season.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Lakers finishing with 242 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  This total of 238.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento State +28.5

It has pretty much been a staple since Mick Cronin took over at UCLA.  The Bruins play at one of the slowest tempos in the country and they are a poor shooting team.  That makes it difficult for them to cover these inflated spreads.

It's clear the Bruins are one of the most overrated teams in the country after a 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS start this season.  They have failed to cover their four spreads by a combined 56.5 points.  They only beat Eastern Washington by 6 as 30-point favorites, Pepperdine by 11 as 29.5-point favorites and West Georgia by 21 as 30.5-point favorites.

First-year head coach Mike Bibby has injected some new life into this Sacramento State program.  They are off to a 3-2 start this season with both losses coming at the wire by 4 at UC Davis as 5-point dogs and by 5 at home to UCSB as 7.5-point dogs, covering the spread in both games.  He has an elite trio of scorers in Jeremiah Cherry (18.2 PPG), Prophet Johnson (16.4 PPG) and Mikey Williams (16.4 PPG) running the show.  They will relish this opportunity to compete with UCLA tonight.  Bet Sacramento State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Wichita State +10.5

Wichita State is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Shockers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS covering their first three games by a combined 51 points.  Now they take on one of the more overrated teams in the country in Boise State.

That was evident when Boise State lost outright to Hawaii Pacific in their opener.  Last time out, the Broncos barely escaped with a 4-point win as 17-point home favorites against Montana.  They have no business being a double-digit favorite tonight against the Shockers.  Bet Wichita State Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks PK

The Atlanta Hawks have actually been better without Trae Young.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with four road wins and an upset home win over the Lakers by 20.  I look for them to take down the Detroit Pistons tonight.

This is a tough spot for the Pistons playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 127-112 home win over one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Indiana Pacers.  Yes, the Pistons currently have a 10-game winning streak, but they are overvalued now because of it as it has come against abut the softest schedule you could imagine.  

The Pistons only beat two teams with winning records during this 10-game winning streak, and those were the 76ers (8-5) and Bulls (7-6), two mediocre teams.  The Hawks (9-5) are the best team they will have played since a 21-point loss to the Cavaliers prior to this streak.

Injuries are a big problem for the Pistons right now with LeVert, Ivey and Sasser out while Cunningsham, Thompson and Harris are all questionable to play tonight.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee-Martin +20.5

This is a play against a Florida State team in a clear letdown spot.  The Seminoles are coming off a 78-76 loss as 17-point dogs to defending national champ Florida.  It's safe to say they won't be nearly as motivated to beat UT-Martin as they were Florida.

That result against the Gators also has the Seminoles getting too much respect here as 20.5-point favorites.  This is a rebuilding FSU team with a first-year head coach who have opened 3-0 ATS and are getting some love now.  Florida is nowhere near as good as last season, so that result is a little misleading to say the least.

UT-Martin has been impressive thus far.  They opened with a 86-81 upset win at UNLV as 17.5-point dogs, came back with a 97-42 win over Kentucky Christian, and backed it up with a 78-67 road win at Bradley as 15.5-point dogs.  It looks as though this is clearly one of the more underrated teams in the country, and they prove it once again tonight by going on the road and hanging with Florida State.  Bet Tennessee-Martin Tuesday.

20* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Kentucky -4.5

I like the fact that Kentucky already has a loss this season so we are getting the Wildcats at a discount.  They lost on the road 96-88 as 6-point dogs at Louisville, one of the best teams in the country.

The Wildcats responded with a 99-53 win over Eastern Illinois easily covering as 35.5-point favorites.  Now they will take down this overrated, poor shooting Michigan State team that is 3-0 thanks to three home games to open the season.  This game will be played on a neutral at Madison Square Garden.

Michigan State has not been impressive at all.  The Spartans beat Colgate 80-69 as 22-point favorites in their opener.  That's a Colgate team that suffered a bad loss to Northwestern at home, and barely beat Drexel by 7 and Siena by 3.  They beat Arkansas 69-66 as 2.5-point home favorites.  That's an Arkansas team that nearly lost outright to Samford 79-75 at home.  And they beat San Jose State 79-60 as 24-point favorites.  That's a 1-3 San Jose State team whose only win came against Bethesda.

The problem all season for the Spartans is going to be a lack of shooting as they are 256th in effective FG percentage (47.2%) and 352nd in 3-point percentage (21.7%) to this point despite the soft schedule.  They face an elite Kentucky offense that is already 8th in offensive efficiency, 18th in effective FG percentage (59.7%) and 1st in 2-point percentage (66.2%).  Bet Kentucky Tuesday.

20* Cowboys/Raiders ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas -3

I love the spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week.  They are off their bye week and had extra time to deal with the death of Marshawn Kneeland.  Now they will be playing inspired football for their teammate, and their defense will look nothing like it has up to this point in the season, which has been one of the worst units in football.

The Cowboys could have as many as five key contributors available that they haven't had this season.  They traded for Quinnen Williams and he and Kenny Clark will form one of the best run-stuffing duos in the NFL moving forward.  They get back pass-rusher DeMarvion Overshown from IR, and he is the player the Cowboys believed in enough to trade away Micah Parsons.  They get CB Shavon Revel to make his season debut.  S Malik Hooker should be back from IR and felow S Donovan Wilson will be back as well.  This is going to be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL moving forward.

The Cowboys have an elite offense and are fully healthy on offense to boot.  They rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game and 4th in total offense at 378.4 yards per game.  Their offensive line is fully healthy, and they have their full compliment of weapons for Dak Prescott.  This will remain one of the best offenses in the NFL moving forward.

The Raiders are an absolute dumpster fire.  They are 2-7 on the season and traded away their best receiver in Jakobi Myers, who is already making big plays for the Jaguars.  Their offense is embarrassing, ranking 31st in scoring offense at 15.4 points per game and 30th in total offense at 272.7 yards per game.  Basically stop Brock Bowers and Ahton Jeanty and you stop the Raiders, which will be Dallas' focus.  QB Geno Smith was noticeably hobbled in the 2H against the Broncos last week and may not be 100%.  He will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL especially now that they are down two starters in LT Kolton Miller and RG Jackson Powers-Johnson.

The Raiders just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Cowboys, and I think the defense is a little overrated due to a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses.  When they have faced some of the better offenses in the NFL they have allowed 41 points to the Commanders, 40 to the Colts, 31 to the Chiefs and 30 to the Jaguars.  I expect the Cowboys to get to 30 tonight, and it will be more than enough to cover this 3-point spread.  Bet the Cowboys Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1.5

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after losing 140-132 in New York to the Knicks on Friday.  They will get that revenge tonight, especially with the Knicks playing without both Jalen Brunson (28.0 PPG, 6.5 APG) and OG Anunoby (15.8 PPG).

The Heat have been a resilient team and haven't lost three straight all season.  They won't be losing three in a row for the first time tonight, either.  The Heat are 5-1 SU at home this season with their only loss coming the next night after beating the Cavaliers, suffering a letdown spot in the rematch.  

The Knicks are 0-3 SU on the road this season.  They lost by 8 to the Heat, by 10 to the Bucks and by 10 to the Bulls.  This will be their first road game since October 31st as they have benefitted from a very home-heavy schedule this season.  Bet the Heat Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Raptors OVER 239.5

The Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (22.3 PPG, 9.9 APG) is healthy and in the lineup.  He recently returned from an ankle injury in a 147-134 loss to the Bucks.  He sat out the next night against the Thunder, but he's back tonight against the Raptors.

The Hornets play much faster with Ball running the show, and the Raptors like to run as well ranking 12th in pace.  The Raptors went for 240 combined points with the short-handed Pacers and 239 with the short-handed avs in their last two games.  They went for 250 with the 76ers four games back.  They are fully healthy right now and thriving offensively scoring 119 or more points in four consecutive games.

The last time Ball faced the Raptors last season these teams went for 271 combined points in a 138-133 victory for Charlotte.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Heat OVER 244

The Heat are lapping the field in the NBA playing at a much faster pace than anyone while ranking 1st in pace this season.  Oddsmakers just can't set their totals high enough as they are 9-4 OVER in their 13 games this season.  They have failed to set it high enough tonight, too.

The Knicks are also a dead nuts OVER team going 9-3 OVER in their 12 games this season.  They are without Brunson and Anunoby, but being without Anunoby hurts much more defensively than it does on offense.  It means more playing time for Jordan Clarkson, who is a terrible defender but instant offense.

These teams just played on Friday with the Knicks winning 140-132 for 272 combined points.  Shamet had 36 points while Clarkson had 24 and Hart had a triple-double for the Knicks, showing that they have a deep bench.  They are worse off defensively with those guys getting more minutes, though.

The Knicks attempted 53 3-pointers while the Heat shot 44 in that first meeting, and it will be another game played either at the rim or behind the 3-point line.  I see another shootout that easily eclipses this 244-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday Total DOMINATOR on St. Joe's/Penn OVER 161.5

Former Penn alum Fran McCaffery returned to his alma mater after a disappointing run with the Iowa Hawkeyes.  That's a Iowa Hawkeyes team that was a dead nuts OVER team in his time there as they were all offense and no defense while playing at a fast pace.  It will be the same for him at Penn.

The Quakers returned the league's top scorer in Ethan Roberts (16.8 PPG LY).  He is thriving under McCaffery thus far averaging 20.7 PPG.  So is Michael Zanoni (18.0 PPG), who is one of nine returning players for the Quakers.  Former five-star Duke commit TJ Power (10.3 PPG) also likes his new home.

Penn ranks 35th in adjusted tempo and 345th in adjusted defense this season already.  The Quakers opened with a 119-72 win over Rowan U for 191 combined points.  They came back with a 84-78 loss at American for 162 combined points.  And last time out they lost at Providence 106-81 for 187 combined points.  This total of 161.5 is too low for a game involving Penn.

St. Joe's has gone 2-1 OVER thus far despite playing a few good defensive-minded teams in Drexel and VA Tech.  The Hawks have four players scoring in double figures, and after a poor shooting start to the season should put forth their best offensive outing since putting up 85 points on Lafayette in the opener.  They just allowed 94 points to VA Tech.  They rank 131st in adjusted tempo so don't mind playing fast, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Florida/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +10.5

The Florida Gators are grossly overvalued this season after winning the National Championship last season.  They lost all their best guards from that team that led them to the title.  And they are failing to live up to expectations thus far.

The Gators are 2-1 SU & 0-3 ATS this season.  They lost outright to Arizona as 3.5-point favorites, failed to cover as 43.5-point favorites against North Florida, and escaped with a 2-point win over Florida State as 17.5-point favorites.  They should not be double-digit favorites here against Miami.

The Hurricanes will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They had the money to spend and did so in bringing in Auburn transfer Tre Donaldson, Indiana transfer Malik Reneau and New Mexico transfer Tru Washington.  5-star recruit Shelton Henderson won gold with USA U-18 and flipped from Duke to Miami.

The Hurricanes are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS this season.  They opened with a 17-point win over Jacksonville as 19-point favorites to barely miss the cover.  They blasted Bethune-Cookman by 40 as 16.5-point favorites and covered in a 41-point win over Stetson as 34.5-point favorites.  That's the same Bethune-Cookman team that took Auburn to OT and only lost by 9 at Dayton.

Reneau (21.3 PPG), Donaldson (16.3 PPG, 6.0 APG), Washington (14.0 PPG) and Henderson (12.3 PPG) have bene awesome thus far and the chemistry is clearly there already.  The Hurricanes will give the Gators a run for their money tonight.  Bet Miami Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Jazz OVER 243

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They play fast and they rank 25th in defensive rating allowing 118.3 points per 100 possessions.  They face an even more OVER team in the Bulls, who play at the 4th-fasted pace in the NBA this season.

Utah is 5-1 OVER in its six home games scoring 131.3 points per game and allowing 126.3 points per game, combining to average over 257 points per game at home this season.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for 233 or more points in all six home games, including 280 with the Pacers and 254 with the Hawks in their last two home games.

The Bulls are 7-4 OVER despite playing without Coby White all season and Josh Giddey for the last few games.  Well, Giddey is back tonight, and White could make his season debut.  The Bulls play at a break-neck pace and are much more efficient when Giddey is on the court running the offense.  

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings finishing with 243 or more combined points in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Blazers/Mavs OVER 233.5

The Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in the NBA in pace.  The Mavericks have made a move to play faster ranking 5th in pace this season.  So this is a matchup between two Top 5 teams in pace, and there will be a ton of possessions as a result.

The Blazers are 9-3 OVER in their 12 games this season finishing with 238 or more combined points in five of their last six games overall.  The Mavericks are 3-0 OVER in their last three games finishing with 230 or more combined points in all three.  They are having to play more small ball this season with injuries to their big men.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Akron +20

This is a fade of Purdue in a horrific spot.  The Boilermakers are coming off a 87-80 upset road win at Alabama.  They have Memphis on deck.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them, and I don't expect them to put forth their best effort today.

This will be Akron's 'national championship' game with the opportunity to face a Power 4 team in-state.  And the Zips brought back three key players from last season who are leading the team this season.  Amari Lyles (16.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG), Shammah Scott (14.3 PPG, 4.3 APG) and Tavari Johnson (13.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) are three seniors and won't be phased by this road atmosphere.

Akron is 3-0 this season beating James Madison by 14 and Princeton by 35 at home.  That's the same Princeton team that only lost by 19 at Kansas as 22.5-point dogs last time out.  Purdue only beat Oakland by 10 in its last home game.  That's the same Oakland team that lost by 43 to Michigan and by 33 to Houston.  Bet Akron Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West No-Brainer on Kansas City -3.5

I love the spot for the Kansas City Chiefs.  They are coming off their bye week and motivated to chase down the Broncos in the AFC West.  This is a must-win game for them, so I know we are going to get their best effort, and it should be good enough to cover this 3.5-point spread on the road.

Andy Reid is 22-4 SU off a bye.  The Chiefs are 11-1 SU against AFC West opponents with extended prep time under Mahomes.  Reid and Mahomes are 31-7 SU with extended prep time together since 2019.

The Chiefs are rolling right now with one of the best offenses of the Mahomes era now that he has all of his weapons healthy.  The Chiefs have averaged 29.2 points per game since getting Xavier Worthy back from injury.  Since then they've gotten back Rashee Rice from suspension, and he has been a walking touchdown.  And now LT Josh Simmons returns from a month absence due to personal reasons, so the Chiefs are fully healthy on offense with the exception or RB Isaiah Pacheco, who they can work around.

Year in and year out, the Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the NFL as long as Steve Spagnolo is calling the shots.  That is the case again this season as the Chiefs rank 4th in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game and 6th in total defense at 291.8 yards per game.  They are better than the Broncos on both sides of the football right now.

The Broncos are 8-2 this season despite trailing in all 10 games at some point.  They are one of the most fraudulent 8-2 teams in NFL history.  They have recent lucky, narrow wins over the Raiders by 3, the Texans by 3, the Giants by 1 and the Jets by 2 just in their last five games alone.  Those are some very bad teams, and they all had the Broncos on the ropes.  This is where their luck runs out.

The Broncos are a banged up, tired team playing for an 11th consecutive week to start the season.  They are without two key starters on defense in 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain and leading tackler Alex Singleton (89 tackles), and both of Singleton's backups are on IR.  The Chiefs will throw all over this Denver defense not having to deal with Surtain.  Riley Moss is one of the most overrated, slowest corners in the NFL and will get burnt time and time again.

Bo Nix has been a major disappointment and has failed to make that Year 2 leap.  He put up just 10 points on the Raiders, 18 on the Texans and 13 on the Jets in recent weeks.  He is a liability for Sean Payton, one of the best play callers in the NFL who is just limited on what he can do with Nix, who averages just 6.1 yards per attempt.  And now the offense is banged up with RB JK Dobbins on IR.  Dobbins has been by far their most productive back with 772 rushing yards and 5.0 per carry.  It's a bigger loss for them than what is being factored into the line.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Celtics UNDER 221

This is a matchup between the two slowest-paced teams in the NBA.  The Celtics rank dead last (30th) in pace and the Clippers rank 29th.  This game will be played at a snail's pace today to say the least, and I like betting UNDERS in these early afternoon NBA games because teams aren't used to playing this early in the day.  It only happens on Sunday's, and teams tend to sleep walk through them.

The Clippers and Celtics have combined for 220 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last three meetings.  They have combined for 206, 220 and 211 points.  It will be more of the same here in their first meeting of the 2025-26 season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

The Chargers are one of the best, most underrated teams in the NFL.  I backed them last week as my 25* NBC SNF GOTY in their 25-10 win over the Steelers.  And I'm back on them this week for many of the same reasons.

Too much is being made of the offensive line injury to Joe Alt.  Not enough is being made of Justin Herbert being one of the best, most mobile QB's in the NFL and it just doesn't matter that much.  Especially since they traded for Trevor Penning from the Saints, and their backups in Pipkins and Hart are pretty good.  This is a loaded offense with playmakers in Gadsden, Allen, McConkey, Johnston and Vidal.  It's the best weapons Herbert has had with the Chargers.

This is also the best defense the Chargers have had in a long time.  They rank 8th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game and 4th in total defense at 280.2 yards per game.  They are as healthy as they have been all season defensively and may be completely back to full strength this week if S Molden and CB Still play, who are both listed as questionable.  They have recently gotten DE Hand, LB Perryman and LB Mack back from injuries, and you would be hard-pressed to find a better defense than this one in its current state.

The current state is impressive.  In their last three games, the Chargers held the Vikings to 10 points and 164 total yards, the Titans to 6 offensive points and 206 total yards, and the Steelers to 10 points and 221 total yards.  Now they will shut down this banged up Jaguars offense this week.

The Jaguars just blew a 19-point 4th quarter lead to Davis Mills and the Houston Texans last week.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and I question if they'll be able to get back up off the mat for this game.  The Jaguars only managed 213 total yards while allowing 412 total yards to the Texans, getting outgained by 200 yards.

Injuries are mounting up for the Jaguars.  They are without their two best playmakers at receiver in WR Brian Thomas Jr. and WR Travis Hunter.  They are also without RT Anton Harrison and CB Jourdan Lewis.  This is a bad Jaguars defense as it is ranking 20th in scoring defense at 24.4 points per game and 23rd in total defense at 344.6 yards per game.  What this defense has given up in recent weeks is alarming.  The Jaguars allowed 36 points to the Texans, 29 to the Raiders and 35 to the Rams in their last three games.  

I love the fact that the Chargers have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' trying to get this win to go into their bye week on a positive note and right on the heels of the Denver Broncos for the AFC West title.  They could find themselves tied atop the division with the Broncos with a win and a Denver loss to Kansas City this week.

Since 2019, teams who blew a 14-plus point lead in the 4th quarter of their previous game are 5-13 SU & 6-12 ATS in their next game.  It has happened four times since Week 6 alone and those teams are 0-4 SU.  Jim Harbaugh is 26-8 SU & 24-9-1 ATS when playing in the Eastern or Central time zone as a head coach, including 17-3 SU & 15-5 ATS in the East.  The Chargers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games following a primetime game.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

I love the spot for the Bengals this week.  They are off their bye week and have everything in front of them.  This is a must-win game if they want to make the playoffs with Joe Burrow likely to return later on in the season.  They only trail the Steelers by two games for 1st place in the AFC North and can cut that lead to one with a win here.  They would also hold the tiebreaker having swept the Steelers as well.

Cincinnati has been competitive since trading for Joe Flacco.  All four games were decided by single-digits, including the last three by 5 points or fewer.  Flacco has led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 yards in a 2-point win over the Steelers, 38 points and 398 yards in a 1-point loss to the Jets and 42 points and 495 yards in a 5-point loss to the Bears.  He won't mind getting another shot at this Pittsburgh defense that he just lit up recently.

This Pittsburgh defense is overrated.  The Steelers rank 28th in total defense allowing 376 yards per game.  Injuries have hit their defense hard as they will be without LGB Cole Holcomb, LB Alex Highsmith, CB Darius Slay, FS Elliott and CB Trice Jr. this week.  They have eight defenders on IR alone.  They are getting old, and teams know they just have to stop TJ Watt and they are doing so by chipping him at the highest rate in the NFL.  The Bengals will deploy the same strategy.

The Steelers also rank just 29th in total offense at 280.7 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game as a team.  That's why they are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL right now and I keep looking to face them because they aren't as good as their 5-4 record would suggest.  I successfully faded them with the Chargers in a 25-10 loss in Los Angeles in primetime last week.  And I'm fading them again this week as Flacco and company have the goods to keep up with the Steelers in another shootout that will likely be decided by 5 points or fewer for a 4th consecutive week.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bengals/Steelers OVER 49.5

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  Joe Flacco has revived the offense, but this is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in its current state.  The Bengals can't help but play in shootouts because they have to try and outscore their opponents.

The Bengals are 6-1-1 OVER in their last eight games finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  In their last three games with Flacco, they went for 64 combined points with the Steelers, 77 with the Jets and 89 with the Bears!  This total of 49.5 is very short for a game involving the Bengals right now.

Flacco has led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 yards against the Steelers, 38 points and 398 yards against the Jets and 42 points and 495 yards against the Bears.  He won't mind getting another shot at this Pittsburgh defense that he just lit up recently.

Aaron Rodgers won't mind facing this defense to get back on track, either.  The Bengals rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.2 points per game, dead last in total defense at 426.6 yards per game and 30th at 6.5 yards per play.  They are without their best pass rusher in DE Trey Hendrickson and without one of their best run stuffers in 1st-round pick DE Shemar Stewart, who was just placed on IR.

This Pittsburgh defense is overrated.  The Steelers rank 28th in total defense allowing 376 yards per game.  Injuries have hit their defense hard as they will be without LGB Cole Holcomb, LB Alex Highsmith, CB Darius Slay, FS Elliott and CB Trice Jr. this week.  They have eight defenders on IR alone.  They are getting old, and teams know they just have to stop TJ Watt and they are doing so by chipping him at the highest rate in the NFL.  The Bengals will deploy the same strategy.

No question Rodgers is on his last leg, but he should find plenty of success here against the Bengals again.  The Steelers went for 31 points and 396 total yards against Cincinnati in that first meeting.  I just don't see any way this isn't a shootout with how poor and banged up both of these defenses are right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Packers/Giants OVER 43.5

Matt LaFleur has taken a ton of heat the last two weeks for poor offensive performance.  But his entire team and coaching staff have had his back, and I expect them to respond in a big way this week for LaFleur.  The offense in particular will shine for a number of reasons.

The biggest is the fact that the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  They have allowed an average of 32.3 points per game and 401.3 yards per game in their last four games during their current 4-game losing streak.  They are decimated with injuries defensively playing without SS Nubin, LB Thibodeau, DE Nunez-Roches and LB Golston right now.  Two other starters in CB Adebo and LB Okereke are questionable, and they have 5 other defenders on IR.

The Packers got good news on the injury front on offense as Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden are both likely back this week.  That will give Jordan Love his full compliment of weapons with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed, who are both on IR.  Josh Jacobs should have a massive game on the ground against a Giants defense that is allowing 187 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  Their 5.5 yards per carry allowed is the worst mark in the NFL.

Jameis Winston is an 'Over' quarterback.  He will try to make throws that most quarterbacks won't, and he will push the ball down the field every chance he gets.  That will lead to some big plays on offense but also to some catastrophic plays and possible defensive touchdowns, or at the very least set the Packers up for easy scores.

This is a very low total for a game involving the Giants right now.  The Giantsand their opponents have combined for 44 or more points in five consecutive games, including 51 or more in four of them.  The Packers will do the heavy lifting here similar to their 35-25 win at Pittsburgh in their last road game that saw 60 combined points.  In their road game prior, they beat the Cardinals 27-23 for 50 combined points.  Their offense just seems to play better when on the highway this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Green Bay Packers -7

Note: I love a 6-Point Teaser on the Packers -1/Ravens -1.5 this week.

The Green Bay Packers will be highly motivated for a victory this week after suffering consecutive home losses to the Panthers by 3 and Eagles by 3.  Sometimes it does a team good to get away from the negative media at home and hit the road.  We last saw the Packers beating the Steelers 35-25 in their last road game.

Matt LaFleur has taken a ton of heat the last two weeks for poor offensive performance.  But his entire team and coaching staff have had his back, and I expect them to respond in a big way this week for LaFleur.  The offense in particular will shine for a number of reasons.

The biggest is the fact that the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  They have allowed an average of 32.3 points per game and 401.3 yards per game in their last four games during their current 4-game losing streak.  They are decimated with injuries defensively playing without SS Nubin, LB Thibodeau, DE Nunez-Roches and LB Golston right now.  Two other starters in CB Adebo and LB Okereke are questionable, and they have 5 other defenders on IR.

The offense has been terrible without Jaxson Dart this season.  He is out with a concussion this week, and while Jameis Winston is a solid backup, he just doesn't have much to work witho.  Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo and Beaux Collins are on IR, and the next-most productive receiver has been Darius Slayton, but he is out this week as well.  This is an embarrassing group of receivers he has to throw to, and there's going to be at least one or two Winston mistakes that cost their team.

The best unit on the field by far is this Green Bay defense.  The Packers rank 9th in scoring defense at 19.6 points per game, 5th in total defense at 287.2 yards per game and 2nd at 4.8 yards per play allowed.  Their starters are fully healthy and ready to dominate this week.

The Packers got good news on the injury front on offense as Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden are both likely back this week.  That will give Jordan Love his full compliment of weapons with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed, who are both on IR.  Josh Jacobs should have a massive game on the ground against a Giants defense that is allowing 187 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  The Packers should continue to pile on the points late in this game to make a statement for LaFleur.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* Notre Dame/Ohio State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Notre Dame +10.5

Notre Dame is one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  The Fighting Irish brought back three starters this season including their two best players in Burton (21.3 PPG LY) and Shrewsberry (14.0 PPG LY).

The Fighting Irish are off to a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS start this season with three blowout wins all by 20 points or more.  Burton is averaging 19.3 points per game while Shrewsberry is averaging 13.0 points per game thus far.  I look for them to give Ohio State a run for its money today.

I haven't been impressed with the Buckeyes during their 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS start against a very soft schedule.  They only beat a bad IU Indy team by 16 at home, barely covered by 2 against IPFW.  They also failed to cover against App State.  The Buckeyes went 17-15 last season.  Bet Notre Dame Sunday.

20* Commanders/Dolphins NFL Spain Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami ML -125

The Dolphins are much healthier than the Commanders this week which is the biggest reason I am on them.  I also like what I've seen from the Dolphins in recent weeks playing hard for head coach Mike McDaniel.  The Commanders are a complete dumpster fire right now and it's only going to get worse before it gets better due to all their injuries.

The Dolphins are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Falcons 34-10 on the road while holding the Falcons to just 213 total yards.  They did lose 28-6 to the Ravens at home, but that was a misleading final as they were -3 in turnovers and just struggled once they got deep in Baltimore territory.  They were only outgained by 6 yards by the Ravens and held them to 338 yards.  Last week, they dominated the Bills from the jump in a 30-13 win as 8-point home underdogs.

With their next three games against the Commanders, Saints and Jets, the Dolphins have a great opportunity to make a late-season surge and a run at the playoffs.  They will remain focused this week with this being a standalone game in Spain, and I fully expect them to handle their business.

The Commanders have been in a downward spiral since fumbling late in a 25-24 home loss to the Bears.  Jayden Daniels got hurt in his next game, a 44-22 road loss to the Cowboys.  Marcus Mariota has been no match for anyone.  The Commanders lost 28-7 at Kansas City in their next game.  Daniels returned in a 38-14 blowout home loss to the Seahawks, but they left him in the game late in the 4th quarter and he suffered another injury.

Last week, the decimated Commanders lost 44-22 at home to the Lions.  They came away from that game even more banged up.  Offensively, they are without QB Daniels, WR McClaurin, WR Burks, WR Brown and WR McCaffrey.  Mariota just doesn't have a chance with his lack of playmakers.

The Commanders came into the season with the oldest defense in the NFL and it's showing.  They are without DE Armstrong, DE Jean-Baptiste, DE Wise Jr., DE Jackson, CB Amos, FS Harris and CB Lattimore right now.  Then DT Payne got suspended for this game for throwing a punch at St. Brown of the Lions last week.  What a mess.

Washington ranks 29th in scoring defense at 28.0 points per game, 30th in total defense at 394.6 yards pre game and 31st at 6.6 yards per play.  Those numbers have skyrocketed in recent weeks due to these injuries.  They are allowing 38.5 points per game and 451.3 yards per game in their last four games.  Tua and the Dolphins will continue to light up this defense this week, and I trust the Dolphins to be able to handle Mariota and his lack of playmakers.  

Mariota is 0-7 SU in his last seven starts when listed as an underdog.  The Commanders are the first team to lose four straight games by 21 or more points in 23 years.  Oddsmakers haven't caught up to just how bad this team is right now.  We'll take advantage.  Bet the Dolphins on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Lakers/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR UNDER 230.5

Both the Lakers and Bucks played in the NBA Cup last night and both will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  That means both are likely to rest their stars tonight.  Don't be surprised if Giannis sits for the Bucks, while Doncic and/or Reaves sit for the Lakers.

Giannis will almost certainly sit after beating the Hornets in OT last night and playing 40 minutes.  Doncic played 40 minutes and Reaves 39 for the Lakers last night.  These offenses are going to struggle without these guys if they do sit, and I don't hate the UNDER if they don't because they will be on tired legs and the shooting will be affected.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves UNDER 235

The Nuggets will be without Christian Braun (11.4 PPG) and Cam Johnson (7.2 PPG) tonight.  They also could be without Nikola Jokic (28.8 PPG, 10.9 APG), who is questionable with a wrist injury.  Their offense will be hampered without Braun and Johnson, and it will be non-existent if Jokic sits.

The Timberwolves are coming off a 124-110 win over the Kings last night in the NBA Cup.  They could elect to wrest Anthony Edwards and possibly more guys after all five starters played at least 30 minutes last night.  Either way, I like the UNDER in this matchup.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Texas/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Texas +6

I love the spot for Texas this week.  The Longhorns are playing with double-revenge after losing twice to Georgia last season, once in the regular season and once in the SEC Championship Game.  The Longhorns are off a bye week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Georgia, which will be playing for a 3rd consecutive week.

Texas was a 4-point favorite at home last year when they were upset 30-15 by Georgia.  That was a misleading final as they were only outgained by 24 yards.  Even more misleading was their 22-19 (OT) loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as 3-point favorites.  The Longhorns outgained the Bulldogs by 112 yards and should have won.  Now the Longhorns go from being favored in both meetings last season to a 6-point underdog in the rematch this season.  There's clearly some line value here from that fact alone.

Georgia has been very fortunate to be 8-1 this season.  In fact, the Bulldogs have spent more time trailing (over 201 minutes) during a 9-0 or 8-1 start for any FBS team since UCLA way back in 2005.  The Bulldogs have narrow wins over Florida by 4, Ole Miss by 8, Auburn by 10 only after punching in a TD in the final seconds, and Tennessee by 3.

Arch Manning was banged up early in the season, but he has gotten healthier and is coming off his two best games of the season.  He threw for 346 yards and 3 TD against Misssissippi State and 328 yards and 3 TD against Vanderbilt.  He'll be even healthier and more prepared to beat Georgia off a bye week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -6.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dumpster fire.  They are 1-11 this season and coming off five straight troubling losses with no help in sight.  They were upset at home by the Nets as 6.5-point favorites, they lost by 17 in Denver as 9-point dogs, lost by 31 in Golden State as 13-point dogs, lost by 24 at Utah while giving up 152 points to the Jazz, and last time out lost by 35 at Phoenix.

To add insult to injury the Pacers just lost Aaron Nesmith (15.5 PPG) to a long-term knee injury in that loss to the Suns.  They were already without Benndict Mathurin (31.0 PPG), Obi Toppin (14.0 PPG), Tyrese Haliburton, Kam Jones, Quenton Jackson (11.8 PPG) and Johnny Furphy.  There's just no help in sight for this team.

The Raptors are rolling right now going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with upset road wins over Cleveland by 13, Cleveland by 11 and Atlanta by 12 during this stretch.  They also blew out the Bucks by 28 and the Grizzlies by 13 at home.  They will make easy work of the short-handed Pacers tonight.  Bet the Raptors Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State/Tennessee OVER 61.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 7-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 57 or more combined points in all nine games including 65 or more in seven of them.  It should have been 64 or more in all eight of nine games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama three games ago in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 61.5 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas, 57 with Alabama and 90 with Kentucky.

The Vols rank 3rd in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 504.1 yards per game and they average 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,737 yards with a 21-to-8 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas, 37 points to Alabama, 34 points and 476 total yards to Kentucky and 33 points to a previously dead Oklahoma offense.

Tennessee is going to come close to covering this total on its own against a New Mexico State defense that hasn't seen an offense in the same stratosphere talent-wise to Tennessee.  And this New Mexico State defense has been torched for 301 passing yards by WKU, 283 by Missouri State and 344 by New Mexico.

UAB managed to score 24 points behind 371 passing yards on this Tennessee defense.  New Mexico State is a pass-happy team that cannot run the ball and should find some success through the air as well to contribute to this total.  The Aggies rank 65th in passing offense at 234 yards per game.  QB Logan Fife has been solid with 2,066 passing yards and 11 TD.  The Aggies also like to play fast ranking 39th in tempo this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tennessee -39.5

The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

The Vols rank 3rd in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 504.1 yards per game and they average 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,737 yards with a 21-to-8 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

New Mexico State has played the 141st-ranked schedule in the country.  The Aggies still have terrible defensive numbers despite playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses.  And this New Mexico State defense has been torched for 301 passing yards by WKU, 283 by Missouri State and 344 by New Mexico.  You can just imagine what this Tennessee offense is going to do to them.

Tennessee is off a bye week with an outside chance of making the 12-team playoff as their will likely be at least one or two SEC teams getting in with 3 losses.  That means they need style points, and we know Josh Heupel is the king of running up the score late into the 4th quarter.  He just doesn't take his foot off the gas, as we've seen in his time here at Tennessee in these late-season non-conference games.

In 2024, Tennessee beat UTEP 56-0 as a 41-point favorite.  In 2023, Tennessee beat UConn 59-3 as a 35-point favorite.  In 2022, Tennessee beat UT-Martin 65-24 as a 38-point favorite.  And in 2021, Tennessee beat South Alabama 60-14 as a 28-point favorite.  So the Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in these late-season non-conference games under Heupel winning all four by 42 points or more.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Tulane OVER 63

Florida Atlantic is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.1 seconds.  The Owls are a pass-happy offense behind QB Caden Veltkamp, who is completing 66% of his passes for 2,600 yards and 20 TD on the season.  They also have one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 130th in scoring at 34.6 points per game and 105th in total defense at 412.3 yards per game allowed.

Tulane is coming off two high-scoring games in a 48-26 loss to UTSA for 74 combined points and a 38-32 win over Memphis for 70 combined points.  They allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA and 368 to Memphis, so you can bet Veltkamp is going to have a big day through the air to keep up with Tulane in a shootout.  Tulane is going to get whatever it wants offensively this week.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on East Carolina -2.5

East Carolina is very much alive in the AAC Championship race among five different teams that have just one conference loss.  Memphis is not one of those teams.  Memphis was upset by UAB a few weeks ago and then upset by Tulane last week to pretty much get eliminated from playoff contention.  I question how the Tigers will get back up off the mat now with that realization.

East Carolina is hitting its stride with three straight blowout wins over Tulsa by 14, Temple by 31 and Charlotte by 26.  The Pirates just had a bye last week and have actually had two byes in the last four weeks, so they are as fresh and prepared as they can be for this game against Memphis.  The Tigers are running on fumes playing for a 5th consecutive week with three hard-fought one score games against UAB, USF and Tulane in there.  The spot really favors the Pirates at home here.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on USC -6.5

USC is a wagon at home and a terrible bet on the road, especially when traveling East.  The Trojans are 19-5 SU 14-10 ATS at home under Lincoln Riley, including 13-8 ATS as a home favorite.  The Trojans have two losses this season and will need an at-large berth if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They need to win out and do it with style, so don't be surprised to see Riley keep pouring it on tonight to go for those much-needed style points hosting Iowa Saturday.

The Trojans are scoring 49.2 points per game, averaging 569 yards per game and 8.9 yards per play at home this season.  They are allowing just 18.8 points per game, 305.8 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home.  They are outscoring opponents by 31 points per game and outgaining them by 263 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play at home.

USC crushed Michigan 31-13 while outgaining the Wolverines by 173 yards at home earlier this season.  They crushed Northwestern 38-17 while outgaining the Wildcats by 202 yards last week at home.  Michigan and Northwestern are similar teams to Iowa, and I think the same fate will happen for the Hawkeyes this week as they just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Trojans, who are going to put up a big number.

Iowa had an outside shot of making the 12-team playoff had it beaten Oregon last week.  Well, the Hawkeyes fell short in heartbreaking fashion 18-16 at home.  That's an Oregon team that was down its top three receivers and still outgained Iowa by 134 yards.  The Ducks did so in punishing fashion rushing for 261 yards on 36 carries on the Hawkeyes.  It was the type of loss that can beat a team twice as Iowa's hopes and dreams of making the playoff or winning the Big Ten are now gone.

Now Iowa has to try and get back up off the mat to face a more potent, healthier USC offense that has shown it can run the football as well rushing for 224 yards on Michigan, 202 on Nebraska and 173 on Northwestern.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank, and these Big Ten teams traveling out to the West Coast have fared terribly all season.  Iowa is in over its head here.  Bet USC Saturday.

20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas State/Southern Miss OVER 65

Texas State is a dead nuts OVER team going 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall finishing with 72 or more combined points in all four games.  This total of 65 is actually pretty short for a game involving Texas State right now.

The Bobcats rank 10th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.  They are 26th in scoring offense at 34.7 points per game and 11th in total offense at 477.2 yards per game.  The problem is they don't play defense, which is why they have lost five straight despite scoring at least 30 points in four of the five.  They rank 129th in scoring defense at 34.8 points per game.

Southern Miss ranks 20th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds.  So these are two Top 20 teams in tempo, and there will be a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points as a result.  This Southern Miss offense has been lighting up opposing defenses for 32.3 points per game this season.  The Eagles have scored at least 38 points in five of their last eight games and I expect them to reach or exceed that mark to pave the way in us cashing this OVER 65 ticket.

Texas State had two starters on defense suspended after a brawl at the end of their 42-39 loss to Louisiana last week.  That will make an already putrid Bobcats defense that much worse.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain expected.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State +15

I love the spot for NC State this week.  The Wolfpack are coming off a bye and have actually had two byes in the last four weeks.  They couldn't be fresher than they are right now, and they should be prepared to give Miami a run for its money this week.

We saw what the Wolfpack were capable of last time out upsetting Georgia Tech 48-36 as 5.5-point home dogs to hand the Yellow Jackets their first loss of the season.  They will be motivated for a 6th win to get bowl eligible, and they would love nothing more than to wreck Miami's season.

This NC State offense has the goods to keep up with Miami in a shootout.  The Wolfpack rank 45th in scoring at 32.4 points per game, 28th in total offense at 438.6 yards per game and 21st at 6.7 yards per play.  CJ Bailey is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, completing 70.7% of his passes with a 19-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 4 scores and averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  Miami hasn't seen many offenses this good.

The Hurricanes have been playing with their food recently.  They suffered upset losses to Louisville at home and SMU on the road in two of their last four games.  In their other two games, they needed big 2H's to pull away from both Stanford and Syracuse, two of the worst teams in the ACC.  They only led Syracuse 14-3 in the 3rd quarter and they were tied 7-7 with Stanford at halftime in their last two home games.

While NC State is off a bye week, Miami will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and I question how much they have left in the tank.  The Hurricanes are good, but they should not be favored by more than two touchdowns against this rested, underrated NC State team today.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on NC State/Miami OVER 55.5

NC State is a dead nuts OVER team with an explosive offense and a terrible defense.  The Wolfpack are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games, including 66 or more in five of them.  This total of 55.5 is very short for a game involving the Wolfpack.

This NC State offense has the goods to keep up with Miami in a shootout.  The Wolfpack rank 45th in scoring at 32.4 points per game, 28th in total offense at 438.6 yards per game and 21st at 6.7 yards per play.  CJ Bailey is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, completing 70.7% of his passes with a 19-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 4 scores and averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  Miami hasn't seen many offenses this good.

NC State's defense ranks 110th in the country in scoring allowing 30.6 points per game, 120th in total defense at 424.8 yards per game and 118th at 6.8 yards per play.  I expect this Miami offense to have one of its best games of the season.  The Hurricanes also will be going for style points to try and make the 12-team playoff so don't be surprised if they continue scoring late into the 4th quarter, which they have done against both Syracuse and Stanford recently.  But I expect NC State to hang and for this to be a back and forth shootout.  The forecast looks great for one with temps in the 70's, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt Saturday Total DOMINATOR on App State/James Madison OVER 53.5

James Madison needs style points to make the 12-team playoff.  The Dukes are 8-1 this season with their only loss on the road to Louisville, so they are very much alive for the 12-team playoff.  And we've seen them tack on extra scores late in going 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.

They beat Old Dominion 63-27 for 90 combined points, beat Texas State 52-20 for 72 combined points and beat Marshall 35-23 for 58 combined points.  This total of 53.5 is pretty low for a game involving James Madison right now that is looking to get margin with each win.

Appalachian State is a good OVER partner.  The Mountaineers rank 9th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.0 seconds.  They also have one of the worst defenses in the country, and that has been on display in recent weeks allowing 31.7 points per game in their last seven games.

Their offense has been solid ranking 50th in total offense at 414.6 yards per game.  They really are a pass-happy attack ranking 19th at 288.2 yards per game.  That means more clock stoppages on incompletions when they have the ball.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Michigan State +7.5

Penn State is coming off three straight gut-wrenching losses.  I question if they can get back up off of the mat with an interim head coach in time to face a rested Michigan State team that is coming off its bye week.

After losing 25-24 at Iowa in their first game without James Franklin, the Nittany Lions were competitive with Ohio State for a half before falling 38-14.  Then they had Indiana on the ropes last week before giving up a last-second touchdown in a deflating 27-24 loss.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

Michigan State is 3-6 this season and still has bowl eligibility in its sights.  I think the Spartans will regroup and be motivated for their first Big Ten victory of the season.  They have been hard-luck losers in narrow losses to Minnesota, Michigan and Nebraska.  They actually outgained Minnesota 467 to 301, or by 166 total yards last time out and lost by 3.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country due to their poor record despite having decent stats.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico -14

Colorado has quit on the season and just wants it to be over at this point.  The Rams are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with all five losses coming by double-digits, including four losses by 17 points or more.  They lost 28-0 at Wyoming two games ago, then returned from their bye week and got stomped 42-10 at home by UNLV last week.

It won't go any better for them against a New Mexico team that is coming off its bye week and motivated to win a MWC Championship.  The Lobos are only one game out of first place and the two teams atop the MWC in Boise and San Diego State play each other this week.  The Lobos won't be taking the Rams lightly.

New Mexico went into the bye off two impressive wins over Utah State 33-14 at home and UNLV 40-35 on the road as 4.5-point dogs.  That's the same UNLV team that just smoked Colorado State 42-10 last week for a recent common opponent.  The Rams will offer no resistance here.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -7

Maryland is a rebuilding team with first-year head coach Buzz Williams.  The Terrapins will be without three key players in G Myles Rice, F Solomon Washington and G George Turkson Jr.  It has been an unimpressive start for the Terrapins to say the least.

They are 0-3 ATS beating Coppin State by 22 as 28.5-point favorites, losing outright at home to Georgetown by 10 as 5-point favorites, and only beating Alcorn State by 20 as 29.5-point favorites.

Marquette's lone loss came to Indiana, and that's an Indiana team that is one of the best in the country.  They beat Albany by 27 as 24-point favorites, Southern by 18 s 24.5-point favorites and Arkansas-Little Rock by 40 as 21.5-point favorites.  The Eagles will make easy work of the Terrapins at home today.  Bet Marquette Saturday.

15* Butler/SMU CW ANNIHILATOR on OVER 163

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Saturday when Butler visits SMU.  Butler ranks 64th in adjusted tempo and 8th in average length of offensive possession getting a shot up every 13.7 seconds.  SMU ranks 94th in adjusted tempo and 17th in average length of offensive possession getting a shot up every 14.2 seconds.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game.

SMU is coming off a 102-91 win over Murray State for 193 combined points.  The Mustangs also topped this total in a 96-76 win over Tarleton State for 172 combined points.  Butler scored 88 points on Southern Indiana, 112 on IU Indy and 98 on Chicago State.  They finished with 192 combined points with IU Indy and 164 with Chicago State.  Their defense is not good, and it will get exposed by this high-octane SMU offense loaded with firepower.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UMKC/Texas OVER 156

UMKC went from one of the slowest teams in the country to one of the fastest this season.  That big change in philosophy has their totals listed too low here early in the season.

UMKC lost 101-78 at Southern Illinois for 179 combined points with a 141.5-point total.  UMKC lost 105-91 at home to Iona for 196 combined points with a 156-point total.  Both totals went over by basically 40 points, and this one won't be close either.

Texas will score 100 points here just like Southern Illinois and Iona did.  The Longhorns nearly got to 100 in their last two games scoring 97 against Lafayette and 93 against Fairleigh Dickinson.  They want to play fast too and will welcome it from UMKC at home today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas/LSU OVER 56

Arkansas is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-2 OVER in its nine games this season.  The Razorbacks and their opponents have combined for at least 57 points in all nine games.  This total of 56 is very low for a game involving the Razorbacks.

They hung 35 points on Mississippi state, 42 on Texas A&M and 35 on Ole Miss in SEC play to prove they can score even against good SEC defenses.  They will score against this banged up, overrated LSU defense that just allowed 49 points at home to Texas A&M in their last home game.

I like the fact that LSU is going to Michael Van Buren at QB.  He is more of a dual-threat who played well at Mississippi State in place of an injured Blake Shapen last year before transferring to LSU.  Garrett Nussmeier has been banged up and ineffective, and Van Buren's dual-threat ability will open up things for this LSU offense moving forward.

Of course, it helps that LSU is taking a big step down in class of opposing defenses here after having to face the gauntlet of Alabama, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Ole Miss in their last five games.  Not to mention they also played Florida and Clemson early in the season, so their offensive numbers have been tamed.  They will have success against an Arkansas defense that ranks 124th in scoring at 33.3 points per game, 122nd in total defense at 430.6 yards per game and 123rd at 6.2 yards per play.  This has the makings of a back and forth shootout in Baton Rouge with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation in the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Arkansas/LSU SEC ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +6

I love the spot for the Arkansas Razorbacks.  They needed a bye week and got it last week after a brutal SEC schedule where they kept coming up short.  Now they've had two weeks to regroup and prepare to beat LSU for their first SEC victory.  I fully expect them to pull off the upset this week.

Arkansas keeps showing up week after week for interim head coach Bobby Petrino despite tough loss after tough loss.  In fact, this might be the best 2-7 team I've ever seen.  Six of the seven losses came by single-digits with the lone exception being a loss to Notre Dame.  They lost by 3 to Mississippi State, by 9 to Auburn, by 3 to Texas A&M, by 3 to Tennessee, by 1 to Memphis and by 6 to Ole Miss.  They easily could have won all six of those games, so they are grossly undervalued right now due to their record.

I also think it's a terrible spot for LSU.  They had their 'all in' game last week against rival Alabama with their interim head coach.  They played hard for him in their first game since firing Brian Kelly, but now I question how motivated they'll be to face Arkansas a week later.  It's an LSU program in turmoil and players already have one foot out the door.  They will also be switching to backup QB Michael Van Buren to try and spark the offense.

I don't think Van Buren and company have the firepower to keep up with Arkansas QB Talen Green.  The Razorbacks are loaded on offense, ranking 8th in total offense at 484.4 yards per game and 4th at 7.3 yards per play.  They put up 42 points on Texas A&M and 35 on Ole Miss, and those numbers are made even more impressive considering the tough schedule of opposing defenses faced this season.  Green is motivated to improve his NFL draft stock and will show out against this banged up, tired LSU defense.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ABC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +10.5

This line has gone up since I released Pitt +10.5 on Sunday.  It has gone up because of Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi's comments about not caring if he lost this game by 100 because winning the ACC is what matters most.  While he is correct, I think it's a smoke screen.  The Panthers would love nothing more than to win this game and knock Notre Dame out of the 12-team playoff.  I think they have the goods to compete, too.

Pitt is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS since switching to freshman QB Mason Heintschel, who is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,550 yards with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He led them to blowout home wins over NC State 53-34 and Boston College 48-7, as well as well as blowout road wins over Stanford 35-20, Syracuse 30-13 and an upset win at Florida State, 34-31.

The offense is averaging 40 points per game with Heintschel at QB, and the defense has been great all season under Narduzzi.  The Panthers rank 24th in the country in total defense at 318.1 yards per game and 16th at 4.7 yards per play allow.  But what particularly stands out for this matchup is Pitt's run defense, which ranks 3rd in the country allowing just 80.7 rushing yards per game and 1st at 2.4 yards per carry.

Notre Dame needs to be able to run the football to be effective, and this will be its toughest test of the season against this top-ranked Pitt Run D.  That at least gives the Panthers a chance to hang in this game, forcing freshman QB CJ Carr to try and beat them through the air.  Pitt is a blitz-happy defense that will give Carr some problems.

Notre Dame is overvalued off a 49-10 home win over Navy, which was playing without starting QB Blake Horvath and had not chance of keeping it competitive without him.  The Fighting Irish only beat Boston College 25-10 as 31-point favorites in their last road game.  That's a BC team that is 1-9 this season with six consecutive losses by 14 points or more.  If BC can hang, Pitt can surely hang as well.  The Panthers are coming off their bye week so they will be fresh and ready to go with two full weeks to prepare to beat Notre Dame.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ABC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 55

Pitt is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS since switching to freshman QB Mason Heintschel, who is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,550 yards with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He led them to blowout home wins over NC State 53-34 and Boston College 48-7, as well as well as blowout road wins over Stanford 35-20, Syracuse 30-13 and an upset win at Florida State, 34-31.

The offense is averaging 40 points per game with Heintschel at QB.  The Panthers really profile as a dead nuts OVER team ranking 25th in the country in tempo which is key to their offense finding its rhythm and keeping opposing defenses off balance.  This is a low total for a game involving the Panthers as they have gone for 55 or more combined points in eight of their nine games this season with the only exception being against Syracuse and its backup QB.

Notre Dame also profiles as an OVER team going 5-4 OVER in all games this season finishing with 58 or more combined points in five of its last eight games.  The Fighting Irish won't have as much success running the ball against this stout Pitt run D, so they will have to throw more than usual with CJ Carr.  He is handling it well completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,275 yards with a 19-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.1 per attempt.  Pitt is a blitz-happy defense, which allows for explosive plays over the top.  I think this will be a back-and-forth shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Charlotte OVER 59.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in this matchup between UTSA and Charlotte Saturday afternoon.  UTSA is 7-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 66 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  Charlotte is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 63 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

Charlotte has allowed 48 points or more in four of its last five games with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The 49ers rank 134th out of 136 teams in scoring defense at 38.4 points pre game and 135th in total defense at 470 yards per game.

UTSA's defense has allowed 55 points in two of its last three games to North Texas and South Florida.  The Miners are way down defensively this season, but they have a very good offense that recently hung 61 points on Rice and 48 points and 523 yards on Tulane.  The Miners will hang a big number on this Charlotte defense Saturday, and as we've seen Charlotte's offense keeps coming late in games no matter the score.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. 

20* USF/Navy ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 64.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all seven games, and 65 or more in five of their last six.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the entire country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.2 seconds.

The Bulls are relentless on offense.  They are averaging 50.2 points per game, 554 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play in conference games.  They have incentive to run up the score as they are trying to not only win the AAC, but do it with style points so they can make the 12-team playoff.  We saw just that when they beat Charlotte 54-26, North Texas 63-36 and UTSA 55-23 in recent weeks.

Navy is 7-2 OVER in all games this season with an elite offense and suspect defense.  Starting QB Blake Horvath sat out the Notre Dame game last week so he'd be more healthy for this game against South Florida, which is for 1st place in the AAC with not only conference championship implications, but also 12-team playoff implications.

Horvath means everything to this Navy offense.  He is completing 64.2% of his passes for 1,143 yards and 7 TD while also rushing for 926 yards and 13 TD.  He is going to go down as one of the best QB's in Navy history, and I think he has the goods to try and match USF score for score.

This Navy defense is a problem.  They just allowed 49 points and 502 total yards to Notre Dame last week.  They are a tired defense playing for a 4th consecutive week after also having to face up-tempo offenses in North Texas an FAU the last two weeks.  I think Notre Dame softened them up with their physical style last week, and USF is going to be able to score at will on them.  With USF playing from in front and keeping the foot on the gas, Navy will have no choice but to play faster on offense to try and keep up.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Arizona/Cincinnati OVER 56

The Bearcats are a wagon offensively ranking 5th in the country averaging 7.3 yards per play.  They also like to play fast ranking 32nd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.6 seconds.  They have great balance led by a rushing attack that ranks 25th at 196.6 yards per game and 3rd at 6.0 yards per carry.

That's where I think Arizona will have problems in this game is stopping Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby, one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  Sorsby has thrown for 2,050 yards with a 20-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 453 yards and 8 scores.

The Wildcats have been very leaky against the run lately allowing 258 rushing yards to BYU, 232 to Houston and 170 to Kansas.  Houston QB Connor Weigman rushed for 98 yards and a TD on them, BYU QB Bear Bachmeier rushed for 89 yards and 2 TD, and Kansas QB Jaylon Daniels rushed for 74 yards and a TD on them.  The Wildcats clearly have a problem defending dual-threat QB's, and Sorsby is better than all three of those guys.

Arizona also likes to play fast ranking 34th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds.  The Wildcats are 3-1 OVER in their last four games combining for 69 points with Colorado, 59 with Houston and 60 with BYU.  They rank 33rd in scoring at 33.0 points per game.  They have nice balance too, but are more pass-happy with QB Noah Fifita, who has thrown for 2,200 yards and 23 touchdowns while also rushing for three scores.

Cincinnati went for 59 combined points with Utah, 61 with Baylor and 66 with Oklahoma State in its last three games.  This total of 56 is pretty low for a game involving two great Big 12 offenses that both like to play fast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Arizona/UCLA CBB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -2.5

This is a play against UCLA.  The Bruins are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Their results are shocking to this point.  They only beat Eastern Washington by 6 as 30-point home favorites, Pepperdine by 11 as 29.5-point home favorites and West Georgia by 21 as 30.5-point home favorites.  They have failed the cover the spread by a combined 52 points in their first three games.

Arizona beat defending national champ Florida 93-87 in its opener to prove it will be a contender this season.  The Wildcats followed it up with blowout wins of Utah Tech by 26 and Northern Arizona by 35.  They will make easy work of this overmatched UCLA team tonight.  Bet Arizona Friday.

20* Warriors/Spurs NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio -2

San Antonio is a young team that cares about winning the NBA Cup.  Golden State is a veteran team that's more focused on a championship and won't get up for these NBA Cup games like the Spurs will.  Adding to San Antonio's motivation is a 125-120 home loss to the Warriors on Wednesday, and they feel like this would be the ultimate revenge to beat the Warriors in the NBA Cup.

The Warriors needed a huge 2H comeback to beat the Spurs.  They also hit 21 3-pointers and went 32-of-36 from the FT line, while the Spurs went just 14-of-16 from the FT line.  I suspect the Warriors won't get the benefit of the whistle like they did in that meeting Wednesday, and the FT disparity won't be nearly as high.

The Spurs are 5-1 SU at home this season, so that was their lone home loss adding to their motivation for revenge.  The Warriors are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Spurs OVER 235

The Spurs are now a dead nuts OVER team since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury to run the PG position.  He made his return three games ago in a 126-119 win over the Pelicans for 245 combined points.  That was a Pelicans team missing two of its best players in Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole, too.  The Spurs then beat the Bulls 121-117 for 238 combined points two games ago.  

Last time out, the Spurs lost to the Warriors 125-120 for 245 combined points.  The Spurs are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall going for 231 or more combined points in all six games.  The Spurs will play a lot faster with Fox moving forward.  Nobody in the NBA gets from one rim to the other faster than Fox.  He will get the Spurs in their offense faster, and they will play with much more pace.

The Warriors are an OVER team as long as Steph Curry is healthy.  He is healthy now, and he had 46 points going 5-of-16 from 3-point range in that 125-120 win over the Spurs on Wednesday.  The Warriors shot 57 3-pointers, and it should be more of the same here with a lot of fast break opportunities for Fox and the Spurs on the misses.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Minnesota/Oregon FOX No-Brainer on UNDER 44.5

Oregon is coming off a pair of low-scoring, rain games against two similar opponents to Minnesota.  The Ducks won 21-7 at home against Wisconsin for 28 combined points, and 18-16 at Iowa for 34 combined points.  There is a good chance of rain for this game at home against Minnesota tonight, and either way I think this game stays UNDER the 44.5-point total.

Oregon has some key injuries at receiver that are limiting their offense which is the biggest reason they only managed 21 points on Wisconsin and 18 on Iowa.  The Ducks have only averaged 20 pass attempts in those two games and they will keep it on the ground here after averaging 40.5 rush attempts in those two games.

The Ducks also have no motivation to run up the score and keep scoring late into the 4th quarter.  We've seen them call off the dogs several times already this season.  They know they just have to survive and advance as winning out would get them into the 12-team playoff.  They also have USC on deck next week so they don't want to show too much here.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team with a terrible offense and solid defense.  Iowa and Ohio State both held Minnesota to just 3 points this season, and I would be surprised if Minnesota reached 10 points in this game.  The Golden Gophers rank 121st in total offense at 313.1 yards per game and 124th in rushing at 109.8 yards per game.  They will be up against an Oregon defense that ranks 3rd in the country at 239.3 yards per game, 3rd at 4.0 yards per play and 28th at 113.2 rushing yards per game.

Minnesota can at least keep Oregon somewhat in check with a defense that ranks 20th in the country at 311.6 yards per game and 21st at 108.1 rushing yards per game.  The Golden Gophers and their opponents have combined for 47 or fewer points in seven of their nine games this season, including 44 or fewer in five of them.  This feels like something in the neighborhood of a 28-7 final.

Neither of these teams are in a hurry offensively.  Minnesota ranks 118th in tempo snapping the ball every 28.4 seconds, while Oregon ranks 101st at 27.7 seconds in between snaps.  This game will slow down to a crawl in the 4th quarter with Oregon blowing out Minnesota and both teams just looking to get out of there.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -15

Georgia is a wagon this season.  The Bulldogs are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Bellarmine 104-59 as 23-point favorites, UMES 94-29 as 34-point favorites and Morehead State 120-81 as 29-point favorites.  The Bulldogs covered the spread in those three games by a combined 63 points in those three games.

Georgia Tech has been far less impressive.  The Yellow Jackets only beat that same UMES team 56-52 as 28.5-point favorites in their opener.  Georgia beat UMES by 65!  That common opponent is a big reason I'm on the Bulldogs.  Also, Georgia Tech struggled to get by SE Louisiana in a 10-point win as 15-point favorites.  The Yellow Jackets have no shot of keeping this game competitive.  Bet Georgia Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hornets/Bucks OVER 239

The Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy, and he is making his return to the lineup tonight for this NBA Cup game.  The Bucks are a dead nuts OVER team as long as Giannis is healthy, and he is making his return to the lineup for this NBA Cup game tonight.  This total of 239 is too short.

Ball is averaging 23.3 points, 9.8 assists and 7.8 rebounds per game this season.  Their offense plays a lot faster and is a lot more efficient with him running the show, but their defense gets worse.  The Hornets will be without C Ryan Kalbrenner tonight, so their defense takes a hit without his size inside.  They will have to go more small ball.

Giannis is off to an MVP-caliber start averaging 33.4 points, 11.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game.  G Ryan Rollins has emerged as a playmaker, and the Bucks have a lot of shooting surrounding Giannis to make them a very efficient offense.  They will be without one of their best wing defenders in Taurean Prince tonight as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on IU Indy/Eastern Michigan OVER 185.5

IU Indianapolis brought in West Liberty DII head coach Ben Howlett to try and turn around the program.  At the very least, the Jaguars will be one of the most fun teams to watch in the country.  He brings a brand of positionless basketball with him, running a player-driven motion offense and 40-minute pressure on defense.  The goal is to play as fast as possible and speed the opponent up.

West Liberty averaged over 100 points per game last season under Howlett.  He brought three West Liberty transfers with him.  The Jaguars are off to an eye-opening start, losing 118-102 to Ohio State for 220 combined points while sailing OVER the 171.5-point total by nearly 50 points.  Oddsmakers are going to struggle to set their totals high enough in the early going, including tonight.

IU Indy came back with a 94-90 loss to Long Island last time out in a game that really slowed down late due to poor shooting.  It still finished with 184 combined points.  They came back with a 112-82 loss to Butler and 192 combined points.  And last time out they beat IUPUC 121-77 for 198 combined points.

Eastern Michigan played two teams that like to play slow in Georgia State and Pitt in its first two games.  EMU wants to play faster, and they will welcome this up-tempo game with IUPUI in a classic stat padder, playground-style game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Jazz OVER 233.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They play fast and they rank 25th in defensive rating allowing 117.9 points per 100 possessions.  They face an Atlanta Hawks team with a similar profile that also likes to play fast tonight.  This game should sail OVER this 233.5-point total.

Utah is 4-1 OVER in its five home games scoring 133.2 points per game and allowing 125.2 points per game, combining to average over 258 points per game at home this season.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for 233 or more points in all five home games, including 280 with the short-handed Pacers last time out.

The Hawks are thriving offensively even without Trae Young.  They have scored at least 122 points in four of their last seven games overall, and I expect them to get to at least that number tonight to pave the way in us cashing this OVER 233.5 ticket.  The Jazz just hung 152 points on the Pacers and they have scored at least 129 points in four of their five home games this season.  

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Hawks and Jazz finishing with 281, 245 and 246 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Jets/Patriots AFC East No-Brainer on New England -10

The Patriots are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall as the most underrated team in the NFL this season.  They have a bye on deck next week, and with that in mind they will be 'all in' here looking forward to going into the bye week with positive momentum.

I fully expect the Patriots to make easy work of the short-handed Jets tonight.  The Jets traded away their two best players in DT Quinnen Williams and CB Sauce Gardner prior to the deadline.  They have stockpiled draft picks to set them up for the future with those two moves, but in the interim they are going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Jets were able to overcome those losses with a 27-20 home win over the lowly Cleveland Browns last week.  It was one of the most misleading wins of the season as the Jets benefited from a 99-yard KO return TD and a 74-yard punt return TD within one minute of each other.  The Jets were held to just 171 total yards by the Browns, and this is one of the worst offenses in the NFL in its current state.

The Jets will be without their best receiver in Garrett Wilson tonight.  Without him, they lack playmakers on the outside.  They won't be able to keep up with this high-powered Patriots offense and MVP candidate, Drake Maye.  

He leads a New England offense that ranks 8th in scoring at 26.5 points per game, 10th in total offense at 359.1 yards per game and 5th at 6.2 yards per play.  Maye is completing 71.7% of his passes with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.9 per attempt.  Going on the road and beating the Bucs who were off a bye 28-23 last week was mighty impressive.  The Patriots racked up 435 total yards on a very good Bucs defense, and Maye threw for 270 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Rookie RB Henderson rushed for 147 yards and 2 TD and should play a huge role tonight.

The Jets were already without Williams and Gardner due to those trades, but now they will be without fellow starting CB Azareye'h Thomas, and both DE Will McDonald and DT Harrison Phillips are questionable.  The Browns weren't able to take advantage of all these players gone, but the Bengals went for 38 points on them the game prior.  And the Patriots will be able to get what they want offensively here.

I love the matchup for the Patriots tonight, too.  The Jets need to be able to run the ball with Hall and Fields to be successful.  The Patriots will have none of it, forcing Fields to try and beat them with his arm, which he cannot.  New England ranks 1st in the NFL allowing just 79.2 rushing yards per game and 4th allowing 3.8 yards per carry.  This is a terrible matchup for the short-handed, terrible Jets tonight.  Bet the Patriots Thursday.