|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-31-22||San Diego State v. UNLV +4.5||76-67||Loss||-115||6 h 55 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UNLV +4.5
The UNLV Rebels are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have gone 11-2 SU & 7-5 ATS this season with their two losses by 2 and 3 points, so they haven't lost by this margin all season. They will relish this opportunity to try and take down San Diego State and pull off the upset as home underdogs.
San Diego State is 10-3 SU but 3-9 ATS, classifying as one of the most overrated teams in the country. And they have only played one true road game this season with a win at lowly Stanford, while going 1-3 on neutrals. They've done almost all their damage at home.
UNLV is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games when playing just their 2nd game in a week. The Aztecs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. The home team is 7-3-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bet UNLV Saturday.
|12-31-22||Baylor v. Iowa State UNDER 132.5||62-77||Loss||-110||4 h 24 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Baylor/Iowa State UNDER 132.5
Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Cyclones rank 279th in adjusted tempo and 17th in adjusted defense this season. The Cyclones are holding opponents to 56.9 points per game and 38.5% shooting, holding them to 16.4 points per game less than their season averages.
Baylor doesn't play that fast ranking 127th in adjusted tempo and will be forced to play at Iowa State's pace with this game being on the road. The Bears are expected to be without LJ Cryer (14.9 PPG), which is a big blow to them offensively. The Cyclones will be without one of their best shooters in Aljaz Kunc (8.5 PPG, 35.9% 3-pointers) for this one.
The UNDER is 14-3 in Cyclones last 17 games overall. The UNDER is 8-1 in Cyclones last nine home games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Bears last five games overall. The UNDER is 11-1 in Cyclones last 12 games vs. good offensive teams that average 77-plus points per game. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-31-22||Kansas State v. Alabama -6.5||Top||20-45||Win||100||70 h 0 m||Show|
20* Kansas State/Alabama Sugar Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -6.5
It looks like Alabama is going to try to make a statement against Kansas State that they belonged part of the four-team playoff. Their two losses came by a combined 4 points on a last-second FG to Tennessee and a 2-point conversion to LSU. They have had no opt-outs so far and only some transfers of players that felt like they weren't getting enough playing time. The bad apples are gone, and the Crimson Tide look fully locked in for the Sugar Bowl.
The early money came on Kansas State with the anticipation that Alabama wouldn't care about this game and a bunch of guys would opt out. Instead, the Crimson Tide are expected to have five projected first-round picks playing in this game, including Top 10 picks in QB Bryce Young and LB Will Anderson. Their commitment to this bowl game just shows how much it means to Alabama.
Note that Alabama has been a double-digit favorite in every single game this season. So getting we are getting them as only 6.5-point favorites here against Kansas State, which is a tremendous value if they are locked in. The Big 12 is way down this season, which allowed the Wildcats to win it. That has played out in the bowls as the Big 12 is 1-3 in bowls thus far. The Wildcats are getting too much respect here against the Crimson Tide, and I expect this line to close -7 or higher so get it in early.
This will be by far Kansas State's toughest test of the season. This will actually be a step down in class for Alabama compared to what they have faced in the SEC. It's a bad matchup for the Wildcats because they need to run the football to score. They average as many rushing yards as they do passing yards this season.
Well, Alabama allows just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season. Nick Saban is a genius with extra preparation, and the Crimson Tide will be prepared to stop this Kansas State rushing attack. Alabama allows just 18.0 points per game on the season. We saw Kansas State struggle to score against two of the set defenses they faced this season in Iowa State and Tulane. They managed just 10 points against Tulane and 10 against Iowa State.
Bryce Young leads an Alabama offense that puts up 40.8 points per game, 477 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. This will be the toughest test of the season for this Kansas State defense. They have been vulnerable against the best offenses they have faced, allowing 38 points to TCU, 34 to Texas and 34 to Oklahoma. I can't see Alabama being held to less than 35 in this one, which is going to make it very difficult for Kansas State to hang. This game will be on a fast turf inside the Superdome in New Orleans which favors the athletes and the speed of Alabama over the blue-collared Kansas State players. The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games. Bet Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Saturday.
|12-31-22||Iowa -130 v. Kentucky||21-0||Win||100||14 h 42 m||Show|
15* Iowa/Kentucky Music City Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa ML -130
Kentucky beat Iowa 20-17 last season in the Citrus Bowl. How excited do you think they're going to be to play the Hawkeyes again this season? The answer is not very. Meanwhile, Iowa will want revenge and will clearly bet the more motivated team. I fully expect the Hawkeyes to win this game given the motivational edge and a couple other key factors.
Iowa will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense. They allow just 14.4 points per game, 278.1 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season. They are only missing a couple players on defense due to opt-outs. They will be up against a Kentucky offense that won't have their two best players in QB Will Levis and RB Christopher Rodriquez, who will sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft. They will also be up against a suspect Kentucky offensive line, which may be the worst unit on the field.
Levis is a first-round pick at QB and Rodriquez is one of the best RB's in the draft. The downgrade to backup QB Kaiya Sheron is massive. He started one game this season against South Carolina and the Wildcats were upset 14-24 at home. He completed just 15-of-27 passes for 178 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the loss. And that's a South Carolina defense that was one of the worst in the SEC this season. Rodriquez rushed for 903 yards and six touchdowns on 5.2 per carry in only eight games this season.
Iowa won't have QB Spencer Petras due to injury, and backup QB Alex Padilla entered the transfer portal. This could be addition by subtraction as no team in the country got worse QB play than Iowa. Third-string freshman Joey Labas could actually be an upgrade. Kentucky doesn't have game film on him, and he actually adds some mobility. Helping Labas out is the fact that TE Sam Laporta will play in this game despite being one of the top NFL TE prospects. He led the Hawkeyes in receiving with 53 receptions for 600 yards this season.
Iowa only allows 104 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season, while Kentucky allows 147 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. This game will be won on the ground, and Iowa has the advantage. Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson (757 yards, 5.3 YPC, 6 TD) came on strong down the stretch and should lead this Iowa offense to enough points to win this game.
Iowa is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games away from home after playing a home game. Take Iowa on the Money Line Saturday.
|12-31-22||College of Charleston -2.5 v. Towson||76-74||Loss||-115||2 h 18 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on College of Charleston -2.5
Charleston is one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are 13-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to North Carolina. They have beaten the likes of Richmond, Davidson, Colorado State, VA Tech and Kent State so it's not like they have played a soft schedule, either.
They have played the 193rd-ranked schedule which is tougher than Towson's 236th-ranked schedule. Towson is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall with bad losses to Navy at home as a 7.5-point favorite, Northern Iowa by 17 as a 5.5-point favorite on a neutral and by 10 at Bryant as a 1-point dog.
Charleston is 7-0 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season. Charleston is 43-15 ATS in its last 58 December road games. The Cougars are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall, including 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a loss, and 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. The Cougars need to be bigger favorites here. Roll with Charleston Saturday.
|12-30-22||Jazz v. Kings -3||125-126||Loss||-110||13 h 31 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -3
The Sacramento Kings are 10-7 SU & 10-7 ATS at home this season and I like the value we are getting on them as short home favorites against the Utah Jazz. They are fully healthy right now and have been a dangerous team when that's the case.
The Jazz haven't been very good on the road going just 1-8 SU in their last nine road games. They are coming off a pair of bad road losses to the Spurs and Warriors despite being favored in both games. I give them little chance of being competitive in this road game tonight.
Utah is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. The Jazz are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Sacramento is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on one days' rest. Take the Kings Friday.
|12-30-22||76ers v. Pelicans OVER 227||Top||116-127||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Pelicans OVER 227
The New Orleans Pelicans are a dead nuts OVER team when Zion Williamson is in the lineup. The OVER is 8-2 in Pelicans last 10 games overall with combined scores of 245, 253, 262, 232, 247, 243, 253 and 237 points in the eight OVERS. That makes this 227-point total a bargain compared to how they have been playing of late.
The Pelicans will control the tempo playing at home and rank 9th in the NBA in pace. They are also 5th in offensive efficiency. Now they face a Philadelphia 76ers team that has played a lot more OVERS of late with the return of James Harden, plus they get Tyrese Maxey (22.9 PPG) back in the lineup tonight from a long absence.
The OVER is 8-3 in 76ers last 11 games overall with combined scores of 224 or more points in nine of those 11 games. They have scored at least 118 points in seven of those 11 games and allowed at least 112 points in eight of their last 12 games overall.
Philadelphia is 7-0 OVER as a road favorite this season. The OVER is 6-0 in Pelicans last six games following an ATS loss. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-30-22||Lakers v. Hawks OVER 239||Top||130-121||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Hawks NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 239
The Atlanta Hawks were already an OVER team but that's especially the case without their most important defender in Clint Capela, who remains out with a calf injury. The Hawks rank 5th in the NBA in pace and they will be facing a Lakers team that ranks 3rd in the NBA in pace. This game will clearly be played at one of the most frantic paces of the season.
The Lakers have had no problem scoring this season as they are putting up 115.6 points per game despite all their injuries, but they are fully healthy now with the exception of Anthony Davis. They are terrible on defense which is why they are 14-21, allowing 117.6 points per game. The Hawks are also terrible on defense allowing 115.1 points per game. They have allowed at least 122 points in six of their last 10 games overall, while the Lakers have allowed at least 124 points in four of their last six and at least 110 points in 14 of their last 15 games.
Both meetings between the Hawks and Lakers were absolute shootouts last season as they combined for 252 and 250 points. This is a high total tonight, but it's not high enough. The OVER is 7-1 in Lakers last eight road games. The OVER is 9-1 in Lakers last 10 games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-30-22||NC State v. Clemson -1.5||64-78||Win||100||6 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -1.5
Clemson is 10-3 this season with two losses coming by a combined 5 points. The Tigers have a tremendous home-court advantage as they are 7-0 at home this season and scoring 81.0 points per game at home. They'll be excited to be playing their first home game since December 7th whlile coming off two of their most complete games of the season, beating Richmond by 28 on a neutral as 2-point favorites and topping Georgia Tech by 13 on the road as 1.5-point favorites.
NC State has only played one true road game all season. The Wolf Pack lost that game 73-80 at Miami as 4.5-point dogs. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here as only 1.5-point road underdogs in their second true road game of the season.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings. Clemson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following two consecutive games with 19 or more assists. They are sharing the ball well right now which is a big reason they are coming off two of their most impressive performances of the season. The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. up-tempo teams that average at least 62 shots per game. Take Clemson Friday.
|12-30-22||South Carolina v. Notre Dame -2||Top||38-45||Win||100||65 h 25 m||Show|
20* South Carolina/Notre Dame Gator Bowl No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2
South Carolina is getting way too much respect heading into bowl season for upset wins over Tennessee and Clemson to close out the season. Hendon Hooker got injured for Tennessee and they were coming off the Georgia loss so they were flat. DJ Uliagalelei has one of his worst games of his career going 8-of-29 for 99 yards in the loss for Clemson. He was replaced in the ACC Championship Game, and should have been replaced much sooner in the season.
Keep in mind Notre Dame also beat Clemson 35-14, while South Carolina won 31-30 to give these teams a common opponent. The Fighting Irish do have some opt-outs in TE Michael Mayer and DE Isaiah Foskey, who have declared fro the NFL Draft. QB Drew Pyne transferred, but he wasn't very good anyway. Previous starter Tyler Buchner is expected back after missing the last 10 games due to injury, and their 3rd-stringer is very talented if forced into action.
It doesn't matter who is under center because Notre Dame is going to rush for monster numbers on this South Carolina defense. The Fighting Irish average 183 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry, and they'll be up against a Gamecocks defense that allows 195 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry. That will be the key matchup that has Notre Dame winning this game.
South Carolina has way more opt-outs and transfers than Notre Dame. Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield left for Nebraska. TE's Jaheim Bell (492 scrimmage yards, 5 TD) and Austin Strogner (235 yards, 1 TD) have transferred. QB Spencer Rattler is transferring as well but will play in the bowl, and I don't trust him to play well. WR Josh Vann (296 yards, 3 TD) is out with an injury. Leading rusher MarShawn Lloyd (572 yards, 9 TD) entered the portal. DL Zacch Pickens (42 tackles, 2.5 sacks), top CB Darius Rush (38 tackles, 2 INT) and top OT Dylan Wonnum won't play as they prepare for the NFL Draft. DE Gilbert Edmond (9 TFL) entered the portal, and S Devonni Reed (39 tackles) won't play. They'll be without nine starters as of this writing.
The matchup is great for Notre Dame's offense against South Carolina's poor run defense, and the matchup is also great for Notre Dame's defense against South Carolina's pass-happy offense. The Gamecocks average 258 passing yards per game, but the Fighting Irish only allow 191 passing yards per game and 6.6 per attempt. Notre Dame is outgaining opponents by 56 yards per game on the season while South Carolina is getting outgained by 13 yards per game. The Fighting Irish should be a bigger favorite here. The Gamecocks are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Roll with Notre Dame Friday.
|12-29-22||Colorado v. Stanford -2||Top||73-70||Loss||-110||17 h 42 m||Show|
20* Colorado/Stanford Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -2
Stanford is just 5-7 this season and favored tonight over Colorado. The reason is simple. They have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and are better than their record, and we are actually getting them at a great value tonight due to that poor record.
Stanford has faced the 17th-toughest schedule in the country. Their seven losses have come to Wisconsin, San Diego State, Ole Miss, Memphis, UCLA, ASU and Texas with all seven losses coming by 14 points or fewer.
Colorado is 8-5 against the 84th-ranked schedule and has played a home-heavy schedule. The Buffaloes have only played two true road games this season. They lost both, including a 74-83 upset loss at Grambling as 14.5-point favorites and a 63-73 loss at Washington as 1-point favorites.
The Buffaloes are 29-59-1 ATS in their last 89 road games. Colorado is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a win. The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and playing well heading into this one. Take Stanford Thursday.
|12-29-22||Washington +3.5 v. Texas||Top||27-20||Win||100||47 h 56 m||Show|
20* Washington/Texas Alamo Bowl BAILOUT on Washington +3.5
Kalen DeBoer is quickly becoming one of the best head coaches in the country. He led Washington to a 10-2 season in his first year after coming over from Fresno State. The Huskies head into bowl season on a six-game winning streak and have scored 32 or more points in 10 of their 12 games this season.
DeBoer is an offensive genius, and he has resurrected Michael Penix Jr's career at quarterback. Penix came over from Indiana where he spent time in DeBoer's system. He led a Washington offense that puts up 40.8 points per game, 523.0 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play. Penix completed 66% of his passes for 4,354 yards with a 29-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for four scores this season.
Penix really thrived against zone defenses, and that's all Texas does is play zone. It helped them be great against the run this season, but they were terrible against the pass, making this a bad matchup for them. Washington throws for 377 passing yards per game and 8.7 yards per attempt, while Texas allows 239 passing yards per game on the season.
The Huskies will have all hands on deck for this one, and Penix announced he will be back for the 2023 season. Conversely, Texas keeps having more opt-outs by the day. Texas' top two RB's in Bijan Robinson (1,580 yards, 18 TD, 6.1 YPC) and Roschon Johnson (554 yards, 5 TD, 6.0 YPC) have opted out to get ready for the NFL Draft. Robinson is arguably the best RB in the country. LB DeMarvion Overshown won't play to prepare for the NFL Draft too. So Texas will be without its top two RB's, a couple LB's, a CB and a DE among nine opt-outs/transfers as of this writing. This bowl game means nothing to them.
Texas QB Quinn Ewers threw for has thrown just one TD pass in his last three games and fewer than 200 yards in four consecutive games. The Longhorns have been relying heavily on running the football down the stretch and now won't have their top two backs. They will continue to try and run, but it won't work against the strength of Washington's defense, which is stopping the run. The Huskies only allow 130 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry on the season. Roll with Washington Thursday.
|12-29-22||Rockets +11.5 v. Mavs||Top||114-129||Loss||-110||15 h 7 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Rockets +11.5
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Mavericks. They are 4-0 in their last four games overall and needed a 60-point effort and a big comeback in the final minutes to beat the Knicks 126-121 (OT) at home last time out.
This is now a clear letdown spot for the Mavericks, who beat the Rockets 112-106 on the road during this four-game winning streak. They won't be excited to play them again, while the Rockets will be out for revenge and will be the more motivated team. Getting 11.5 points with the Rockets given the situation is too much tonight.
After all, Dallas has won by double-digits only five times in 35 games this season. They aren't blowing teams out because they don't play great defense. They will let Houston hang around in this one as they just have a way of playing to their level of competition.
Dallas is 0-9 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games this season. The Mavericks are 1-8 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season. Dallas is 8-17 ATS as a favorite this season. The Mavericks are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Rockets Thursday.
|12-29-22||Oklahoma v. Florida State -9||32-35||Loss||-110||44 h 30 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Florida State Cheez-It Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Florida State -9
Few teams are playing better than Florida State heading into bowl seasons. The Seminoles have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and Mike Norvell finally has this program headed in the right direction. The Seminoles have actually outgained eight of their last nine opponents with the only exception being getting outgained by 12 yards by Wake Forest in Game 4. They have outscored their last five opponents by 28.2 points per game and outgained them by an average of 218 yards per game.
Amazingly, Florida State won't be missing any key players for this bowl game. Two NFL prospects in S Jammie Robinson and DE Jared Verse have stated they will play. The same cannot be said for Oklahoma, which is missing both starting OT's in Anton Harrison and Wanya Harris, DL Jalen Redmond and RB Eric Gray (1,364 yards, 11 TD, 6.4 YPC) who will all be entering the NFL Draft. WR Theo Wease has entered the transfer portal.
Oklahoma has been going the other direction to close out the season. The Sooners went 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games including three upset losses to Baylor, West Virginia and Texas Tech. This has been a poor Oklahoma defense all season allowing 29.6 points per game and 450.7 yards per game. They allow 189 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game and Florida State figures to have a big game on the ground and through the air. The Seminoles average 218 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry as well as 258 passing yards per game and 8.7 per attempt.
Florida State also has a great defense, allowing 19.7 points per game, 308 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play. They are tremendous against the pass, allowing just 159 passing yards per game and 5.8 per attempt. The only concern they have on defense is stopping the Dillon Gabriel to Marvin Mims connection. Mims has 52 receptions for 1,006 yards and 6 TD this season. Look for the Seminoles to try and take him away with double-teams and shifting coverages.
The Seminoles will have a home-field advantage with this game being played in Orlando as well. The Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The Seminoles are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 bowl games. It's clear which team cares about this game, and which doesn't, thus this one has blowout written all over it. Take Florida State Thursday.
|12-29-22||Minnesota -9.5 v. Syracuse||28-20||Loss||-118||40 h 55 m||Show|
15* Minnesota/Syracuse Pinstripe Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -9.5
Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck has a perfect ATS record in bowl games and is quickly becoming one of the best bowl coaches in the country. He will have his team ready to go for the Pinstripe Bowl and this will be one of his easiest bowl tests yet as a head coach considering all that Syracuse is missing.
Minnesota went 8-4 this season and it easily could have been better. They should have beaten Iowa in their second-to-last game but suffered a fluky 13-10 loss despite outgaining the Hawkeyes by 119 yards and racking up 399 yards against a very good Iowa defense. They did beat Wisconsin 23-16 in the finale and racked up 416 total yards on a very good Badgers defense while outgaining them by 82 yards. The Golden Gophers are only missing two defenders in LB Braelen Oliver and S Michael Dixon, who entered the transfer portal. They could even get back QB Tanner Morgan and aren't missing anyone on offense.
Syracuse is in a world of hurt heading into this bowl game. The biggest loss is RB Sean Tucker, who has 3,064 scrimmage yards and 27 touchdowns over the past two seasons. He will be taking his talents to the NFL. LeQuint Allen (180 rushing yards) is likely to work as the top back. WR Courtney Jackson (15 receptions) and DL Steve Linton (6 TFL) have entered the portal. Offensive coordinator Robert Anae left to take over the same position at NC State. Defensive coordinator Tony White left for the same position at Nebraska. Top CB Darian Chestnut and top OL Matthew Bergeron will also sit this game.
Syracuse is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall and heading in the wrong direction. A big problem for them is their run defense, which has allowed 213 or more yards on the ground in four of their last six games. That's bad news for them against a Minnesota team that ranks 11th in the country in rushing at 218 yards per game and 4.8 per carry. The Golden Gophers will get whatever they want against Syracuse on the ground. I also expect this Minnesota defense, which allows just 13.3 points per game and 280.8 yards per game, to shut down anything Syracuse tries to do without Tucker. The Golden Gophers are 5-0 ATS in their last five bowl games. Bet Minnesota Thursday.
|12-28-22||Nuggets v. Kings +2.5||Top||126-127||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
25* NBA DOG OF THE YEAR on Sacramento Kings +2.5
I had a tough beat on the Sacramento Kings +3.5 last night as they blew a 20-point lead and lost by 7 to the Denver Nuggets. I will get my revenge tonight, and so will the Kings as they win this game outright in the rematch. They will be the more motivated team after blowing that big lead, and the Nuggets won't show up at all after just beating the Kings last night.
The Kings are a young, deep team that can handle this 2nd of a back-to-back much better than the Nuggets can. Jokic played 37 minutes and Murray 38 minutes for the Nuggets last night. Four of five starters for the Kings played less than 33 minutes with the only exception being Kevin Huerter and his 37 minutes.
This will only be the 2nd game in 5 days for the Kings while it will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Nuggets. Denver used a lot of energy coming back from that 20-point deficit last night, too. The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, proving they handle this spot very well. Bet the Kings Wednesday.
|12-28-22||Bucks -4 v. Bulls||Top||113-119||Loss||-110||8 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks -4
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Milwaukee Bucks following their first three-game losing streak of the season. It has come against a brutal schedule with road losses to Cleveland, Brooklyn and Boston, which are arguably the three best teams in the East outside of Milwaukee, so it's totally understandable.
But now the Bucks come in rested and ready to go playing on two days' rest, and they will obviously be highly motivated for a victory here. The Bulls have gone just 9-15 SU in their last 24 games overall and are coming off a 15-point upset home loss to the lowly Houston Rockets. They just cannot be trusted on a nightly basis.
Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Chicago) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread against an opponent that is coming off three or more consecutive ATS losses are 42-17 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - after being beating by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games are 32-9 (78%) ATS since 1996.
Home-court advantage has meant little in this series as the road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The road team is also 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Milwaukee is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 trips to Chicago. The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. Chicago is 18-37 ATS in its last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Bucks Wednesday.
|12-28-22||Kansas +3 v. Arkansas||Top||53-55||Win||100||29 h 24 m||Show|
20* Kansas/Arkansas Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Kansas +3
The Kansas Jayhawks are clearly excited to be playing in their first bowl game since 2008. Lance Leipold did a heck of a job getting the Jayhawks to 6-6 and these players and coaches will relish this opportunity to play in the Liberty Bowl. Leipold is 4-1 ATS in bowl games and the Jayhawks will have almost all hands on deck for this game no opt-outs and no key transfers.
Arkansas lost three of its final four games to close out the season including two upset losses as favorites. They have been hit as hard as almost anyone with opt-outs and transfers leading into this bowl game, so they clearly do not care about it.
Defensive coordinator Barry Odom took the head-coaching job at UNLV. All-American LB Drew Sanders and All-American C Ricky Stromberg are sitting out for the NFL draft. Fellow stud LB Bumper Pool is out with an injury. DB Myles Slusher, TE Trey Knox (26 receptions, 296 yards, 5 TD) and WR Ketron Jackson (16, 277, 3 TD) all entered the portal. Leading WR Jadon Haselwood (59, 702, 3 TD) entered the NFL Draft and won't play. DL Isaiah Nickolls (12 starts) entered the portal. In all, the Razorbacks will be without nine starters and have roughly 23 players who are opting out or transferring.
Kansas should be able to name its score with an offense that put up 34.2 points per per game and 7.0 yards per play this season. They'll be up against an Arkansas defense that was already poor in allowing 454 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play and will now be without all of their best players on defense. Kansas' defense is bad, but I still trust them to get more stops than Arkansas in this one.
Plays against any team (Arkansas) - averaging 6.2 YPP or more on offense against a team that allows 5.6 to 6.2 YPP on defense, after allowing 6.75 YPP or more in two consecutive games are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Kansas in the Liberty Bowl Wednesday.
|12-28-22||Tennessee v. Ole Miss UNDER 131.5||63-59||Win||100||5 h 46 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee/Ole Miss UNDER 131.5
Tennessee is a dead nuts UNDER team. They play slower than average and rank 1st in the country in adjusted defense. They allow just 52.7 points per game and 32.9% shooting, holding opponents to 20.7 points per game less than their season averages. They also only shoot 41.8% as a team including 33% from 3-point range.
Ole Miss ranks 250th in adjusted tempo and plays even slower than Tennessee. The Rebels rank 52nd in adjusted defense. They are holding opponents to 63.5 points per game and 40.5% shooting, limiting them to 9.7 points per game less than their season averages. They shoot just 44.6% as a team including 31.4% from 3-point range.
I expect both teams to be rusty on offense coming back from Christmas Break, but for both teams to be locked in defensively and giving big effort in this SEC opener. The UNDER is 7-0 in Vols last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 5-0 in Rebels last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|12-28-22||Central Florida v. Duke -3||Top||13-30||Win||100||155 h 22 m||Show|
20* UCF/Duke Military Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Duke -3
The Duke Blue Devils are excited to be here after a surprising 8-4 season in Mike Elko's first season on the job to get to a bowl for the first time since 2018. They didn't settle once they became bowl eligible. They continued playing well down the stretch winning four of their final five games with their lone loss coming by 2 at Pittsburgh as 6-point dogs. They have all hands on deck for this game with no opt-outs or key transfers.
The same cannot be said for UCF, which has a ton of opt-outs and transfers. The game the Knights cared about was the AAC Championship Game against Tulane, which they lost 45-28. They won't care at all about this game, and that is evident with all the key players they are missing.
UCF could be down to a third-string QB in Thomas Castellanos is John Rhys Plumlee cannot go because backup Mikey Keene transferred. The Knights will be without their top receiver in Ryan O'Keefe (73 receptions, 725 yards, 5 TD), their top LB in Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, their top CB in Davonte Brown and several other contributors. Defensive coordinator Travis Williams left for Arkansas.
Duke likes to run the football averaging 185 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. They will have success on the ground against a UCF defense that allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry and will be missing their top DL and top LB. Duke only allows 120 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry and will be well equipped to stop a UCF offense that also relies heavily on the run at 236 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry.
Duke is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games. The Knights are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game. The Blue Devils are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 non-conference games. Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last five bowl games. The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. AAC opponents.
Plays against any team (UCF) - averaging 6.2 YPP or more on offense against a team that allows 5.6 to 6.2 YPP on defense, after allowing 6.75 YPP or more in two consecutive games are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Duke in the Military Bowl Wednesday.
|12-27-22||Nuggets v. Kings +3.5||Top||113-106||Loss||-110||12 h 5 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +3.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings after upset losses to the Hornets and Wizards in two of their last three games. The Kings come back highly motivated for a victory tonight and rested and ready to go coming in on three days' rest.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Denver Nuggets after going 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall including an OT win over a depleted Suns team on Christmad Day. In fact, the Nuggets have won six of those seven games at home with their lone road victory coming by a single point at Portland. They also lost by 18 at the Lakers in their other road game and are just 9-8 SU & 6-10-1 ATS on the road this season.
Denver is 0-7 ATS in road games following two or more consecutive wins this season, losing by an average of 10.3 points per game in this spot. Sacramento is 11-3 ATS after playing a home game this season. The Kings are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following three consecutive games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or higher. The Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games playing on one days' rest. The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings. Bet the Kings Tuesday.
|12-27-22||Suns v. Grizzlies -7.5||125-108||Loss||-110||10 h 4 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -7.5
The Memphis Grizzlies have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. They are 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS at home this season. They are as healthy as they have been all season right now with Desmond Bane recently returning to the lineup, and they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.
The Phoenix Suns are far from healthy. They will be without four of their top seven scorers tonight in Devin Booker (27.1 PPG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG), Cameron Payne (12.7 PPG) and Landry Shamet (9.4 PPG). The loss of Shamet is big because he was coming on strong in the absence of Booker, scoring 25.7 PPG in his last three games with 19 made 3-pointers.
The Grizzlies just beat the short-handed Suns 125-100 on the road as 2.5-point favorites two games back. They were then upset by the Warriors on Christmas Day, so they won't be feeling fat and happy here. They will take the Suns seriously and put them away as they return home highly motivated to bounce back from that loss to Golden State.
Memphis is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a road loss by 10 points or more. The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after going under the total. Memphis is 36-14-1 ATS in its last 51 home games. Roll with the Grizzlies Tuesday.
|12-27-22||Lakers v. Magic -3||129-110||Loss||-110||9 h 5 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -3
The Orlando Magic are flying under the radar right now. They are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have won eight of their last nine games SU with their lone loss coming by a single point at Atlanta. But they don't get the respect other teams get due to their 13-21 record overall.
Now they take on the struggling Los Angeles Lakers who are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and just not a very good team without Anthony Davis, who remains out. The Lakers don't play any defense allowing 124 or more points in all four losses while allowing 118.0 points per game on the season. Now they have to take on a Magic team that is clicking offensively scoring 111 or more points in eight of their last nine games overall.
The Lakers are 2-12 ATS as road underdogs this season. The Magic are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 130 points or more. Orlando is 10-1 ATS following a win this season. Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Orlando has a big rest advantage playing on three days' rest while the Lakers had to play in Dallas on Christmas Day and will be playing their 6th game in 10 days. Take the Magic Tuesday.
|12-27-22||East Carolina v. Coastal Carolina OVER 62||Top||53-29||Win||100||145 h 34 m||Show|
20* ECU/Coastal Carolina Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 62
Star QB Grayson McCall will play in this bowl game for Coastal Carolina before transferring to likely Auburn, where he'll follow Hugh Freeze. It just hasn't been announced yet where he's going. But first, McCall clearly wants to finish what he started here at Coastal Carolina.
McCalle completing 69.1% of his passes for 2,633 yards with a 24-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season and makes all the difference for their offense. He has also rushed for 183 yards and five scores. He missed a couple games at the end of the season with an injured ankle before returning for the Sun Belt Championship Game. And now he's had 23 days in between games to rest and recover even more and should be 100% for this one.
In the two games without McCall, the Chanticleers averaged just 16.5 points and 276.5 yards per game, which shows how much he means to this offense when you consider they average 29.1 points per game and 413 yards per game on the season with those two games really bringing down the averages. Coastal Carolina can't stop anyone, allowing 30.1 points per game, 412 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. They allowed 46 points per game in their final two games against James Madison and Troy.
East Carolina also has an explosive, balanced offense behind senior QB Holton Ahlers. They average 30.8 points per game, 459 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play with 170 rushing and 288 passing. Ahlers is completing 67.1% of his passes for 3,408 yards with a 23-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 134 yards and five scores. RB Mitchell has 1,325 rushing yards and 13 scores and should have a monster game against this Coastal Carolina defense.
East Carolina gave up 42 points and 515 yards to Houston and 46 points and 575 yards to Temple in their final two games this season. McCall will have a big game against this defense that is going in the wrong direction. Coastal Carolina also has some opt outs on its already porous defense. DE Josaiah Stewart (10 TFL) and CB's Manny Stokes and Zxaequan Reeves have transferred.
Both teams are decent against the run and terrible against the pass. ECU gives up 300 passing yards per game and 8.7 per attempt, while Coastal allows 282 passing yards per game and 9.3 per attempt. Both teams will throw the ball more than usual to take advantage of the opposing defenses' weaknesses, which also favors the OVER. The weather looks good for a shootout too with temps nearing 40's, no wind and no precipitation Tuesday in Birmingham. This total is too low. Bet the OVER in the Birmingham Bowl Tuesday.
|12-27-22||Georgia Southern -3.5 v. Buffalo||Top||21-23||Loss||-110||138 h 45 m||Show|
20* GA Southern/Buffalo Camellia Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Southern -3.5
Both Georgia Southern and Buffalo are 6-6 this season but they are not created equal. Georgia Southern is the much better of these two teams. It's less than a five hour drive for fans from Statesboro, GA to Montgomery, AL, and fans and players alike will be excited for their first bowl games under first-year head coach Clay Helton. They gutted out a 51-48 win over a very good Appalachian State team as a home underdog in the regular season finale to earn their bowl berth.
Helton turning this triple-option team into a pass-happy team and getting to six wins was one of the best coaching jobs in the country. Georgia Southern put up 33.7 points per game and 469 yards per game including 327 passing per game. Former Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease had a great season with his new team and is loaded with weapons on the outside with three receivers that finished with at least 700 receiving yards, plus a pair of talented RB's that both averaged 5.5 YPC or more. Vantrease will be motivated to beat his former team.
Buffalo is one of the most fraudulent bowl teams there is. The Bulls went 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their final four games and needed a fortunate one-point win over lowly Akron and their third-string QB in the final just to get into a bowl. Buffalo is actually getting outgained 4.9 yards per play on offense to 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play on the season. Georgia Southern averages 6.2 yards per play on offense and has the way superior unit. Buffalo does have the edge on defense but not by much, and they give up 5.1 yards per carry and 7.1 yards per pass.
I haven't even mentioned Buffalo's injuries and opt outs. Running backs Ron Cook Jr. and Al-Jay Henderson, who combined for 901 rushing yards this year, did not play in the regular season finale against Akron. Receiver Jamari Gassett (28 catches) and TE Trevor Borland entered the portal, as did S Keshawn Cobb (66 tackles, 1 INT). Georgia Southern is expected to hand all hands on deck for this one, showing how much this game means to these players.
The forecast looks good for the pass-happy Eagles with temps in the 40's, no precipitation and no wind Tuesday. The Bulls are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Buffalo is 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site games. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GA Southern) - off a home win against a conference opponent, with four-plus more starters returning than their opponent at 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Georgia Southern Tuesday.
|12-26-22||Hornets v. Blazers OVER 237||Top||113-124||Push||0||11 h 21 m||Show|
20* Hornets/Blazers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 237
La'Melo Ball just returned for the Charlotte Hornets and they are a dead nuts OVER team with him in the lineup. They have combined for 231 or more points in seven consecutive games now, including 264 with the Lakers last time out, and they should easily top this 237-point total against the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.
The Portland Trail Blazers are a potent offensive team with the trio of Lillard, Simons and Grant all healthy and that's the case right now. They have scored at least 116 points in seven of their last 10 games overall, but they have also allowed 111 or more points in 15 of their last 18 games overall so they are not a very good defensive team. Charlotte ranks 27th in defensive efficiency while Portland ranks 20th.
The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings. The OVER is 10-1 in Hornets last 11 games when playing on two days' rest. The OVER is 19-7 in Hornets last 26 road games. The OVER is 5-1 in Blazers last six home games. The OVER is 15-6-1 in Blazers last 22 games when playing on two days' rest. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.
|12-26-22||Jazz v. Spurs OVER 235.5||122-126||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Spurs OVER 235.5
The San Antonio Spurs are fully healthy for the first time basically all season. The Utah Jazz are fully healthy with the exception of Kelly Olynyk. These are two dead nuts OVER teams right now given their health and the way they play.
The Spurs rank 8th in the NBA in pace while the Jazz rank 12th. The Jazz rank 5th in offensive efficiency and are a great offensive team. Both teams are terrible defensively with the Spurs ranking dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency and the Jazz ranking 25th.
The Spurs are coming off two very high scoring games with 246 combined points against the Magic and 243 combined points against the Pelicans. The Jazz have seen 232 and 237 combined points in their last two games coming in.
The OVER is 27-9 in the last 36 meetings in San Antonio. The OVER is 6-1 in Spurs last seven games overall. The OVER is 6-2 in Jazz last eight games when playing on three or more days' rest. Both teams are rested and ready to get up and down the floor at a hectic pace tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|12-26-22||Chargers -3 v. Colts||Top||20-3||Win||100||178 h 41 m||Show|
25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -3
The Los Angeles Chargers are coming up clutch when these games matter the most here down the stretch. They have won two consecutive games against fellow playoff contenders in Miami and Tennessee and were more dominant than the final scores showed in both of those games. They outgained the Dolphins by 213 yards in a 23-17 victory and outgained the Titans by 81 yards in a 17-14 victory.
The headlines are that Justin Herbert finally has his to star receivers healthy in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, which is huge and true, but the real substance of this team is what the defense has done the last two weeks. They held Miami's high-octane attack to just 17 points and 219 total yards, and they held Derrick Henry and Tennessee's rushing attack in check while limiting them to 14 points and 284 total yards. Now they finally have a defense to go with one of the most talented offenses in the league.
While the Chargers have a lot to play for tied for 6th in the AFC with the Dolphins and only one game ahead of the Patriots, the Indianapolis Colts have nothing to play for at this point. They just lost RB Jonathan Taylor to a season-ending injury and he means everything to their offense. They have decided to go with Nick Foles over Matt Ryan for this game, and it won't make any difference as the offensive line is terrible, and there are no proven weapons on this offense now without Taylor.
The Colts have to be gutted after blowing the largest lead in NFL history, losing 36-39 (OT) to the Vikings last week after opening with a 33-0 lead on the heels of two defensive touchdowns. Taylor went out after getting a big lead and the offense couldn't sustain drives without him. The defense has to be gassed after spending basically the entire second half on the field. They gave up 518 total yards to the Vikings in defeat. I don't trust their mental state right now as Jeff Saturday is a dead man walking, and these players know it.
I grabbed a good early number on the Chargers -3 Monday knowing this line would move in their favor, once again beating another line move. I obviously don't like it as much at anything more than -3. I would downgrade it to a 20* at -3.5 to -4.5, so adjust your best accordingly. This is why it's important to get a long-term subscription instead of buying plays on the day of games so you can get the best numbers, too.
Plays against any team (Indianapolis) - after going over the total by 35 points or more total in their last three games, a bad team winning 25-40% of their games on the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Indianapolis. Bet the Chargers Monday.
|12-26-22||Pacers v. Pelicans OVER 235.5||93-113||Loss||-110||9 h 21 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Pelicans OVER 235.5
Two great offensive teams that like to play fast square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pacers rank 3rd in the NBA in pace while the Pelicans rank 11th. The Pelicans rank 6th in offensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 21st in defensive efficiency.
The Pelicans are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with combined scores of 253, 243, 247, 232, 261, 221, 253 and 245 points. These teams met earlier this season on November 7th with the Pacers winning 129-122 for 251 combined points.
Indiana is 42-21 OVER in its last 63 games with a total of 230 or higher. New Orleans is 40-17 OVER in its last 57 home games following four or more consecutive OVERS. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Take the OVER in this game Monday.
|12-26-22||Nets v. Cavs -2||Top||125-117||Loss||-110||8 h 21 m||Show|
20* Nets/Cavs NBA TV No-Brainer on Cleveland -2
The Cleveland Cavaliers had won five straight games prior to getting upset by the Raptors at home last time out. Now I think it's a great 'buy low' spot on the Cavaliers off that rare upset home loss.
After all, the Cavaliers are 16-3 SU & 14-5 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. I think that was a letdown and sandwich spot for the Cavaliers as they were coming off the 114-106 win over the Bucks and had the Nets on deck. The Nets will now get their full attention off that upset loss to the Raptors.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nets, who are 8-0 SU in their last eight games overall against a very soft schedule. They will meet their match tonight in the Cavaliers and this winning streak will come to an end. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to this streak.
Brooklyn is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Cleveland. The Nets are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Cleveland is 5-0-2 ATS in its last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points. Take the Cavaliers Monday.
|12-25-22||Grizzlies -6 v. Warriors||Top||109-123||Loss||-110||11 h 5 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -6
The Golden State Warriors are just atrocious without Stephen Curry (30.0 PPG, 6.8 APG, 6.6 RPG) and Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG), their top two scorers. They lost their last two games without them by 36 at New York and by 30 at Brooklyn. It will be more of the same today against the Memphis Grizzlies.
While the Warriors are banged up right now, the Grizzlies are back to full strength with Desmond Bane recently returning to the lineup. We saw what they were capable of fully healthy as they blasted the Suns by 25 on the road last time out to improve to 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with all eight wins coming by 8 points or more.
They are phenomenal defensively, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 105 points or fewer. The Warriors have allowed 118 or more points in five of their last six including 143 to Brooklyn and 132 to New York in their last two games. They give up 117.9 points per game on the season.
Memphis will have no problem kicking Golden State while they are down after getting eliminated by them in the playoffs last season. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - after leading their previous game by 15 points or more at halftime against an opponent after a game with a combined score of 255 points or more are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.
|12-25-22||Lakers +7.5 v. Mavs||115-124||Loss||-110||6 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Lakers +7.5
The Dallas Mavericks are just 8-19-2 ATS in their last 29 games overall and have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season. In their 33 games this season, they have just 7 wins by more than 7 points. Getting 7.5 points with the Los Angeles Lakers is tremendous value on Christmas Day.
The Lakers are without Anthony Davis but they are healthy everywhere else. They come in highly motivated for a victory after losing three consecutive games, so it's a good time to 'buy low' on them. The Mavericks are without two key pieces in Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith.
I also think it's a bad spot for the Mavericks, who will be returning home following a four-game road trip and there will be a ton of distractions to deal with at home especially with it being Christmas. It will also be the 10th game in 17 days for the Mavericks, so they will be playing on tired legs.
Dallas is 0-8 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season. The Mavericks are 3-12 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Dallas is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Lakers Sunday.
|12-25-22||Packers v. Dolphins OVER 46.5||Top||26-20||Loss||-110||146 h 54 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Dolphins OVER 46.5
I locked in this great number on Monday before the Packers played as it was available at pretty much every book. It reopened higher, so we got a great number here. I would downgrade it to a 15* play at anything above 49 at this point, but I'm glad myself and my long-term clients got this great number early. It's just another reason you should sign up long-term to get the best numbers, too, rather than bet on the day of the game. I consistently beat the line moves, which puts us at a big advantage on the books.
But let's get into the breakdown of this game. With some terrible weather forecast across the country, this won't be one of them. Temperatures will be in the 50's in Miami Sunday with light winds and a small chance of precipitation. It will be balmy compared to the rest of the country and it will help us cash in this OVER ticket.
Maimi is a dead nuts OVER team right now. They have scored 29 or more points in five of their last seven games overall. But they have allowed an average of 29.3 points per game and 409.7 yards per game in their last three games. They are decimated by injuries on defense, especially in the secondary. If they don't get pressure teams consistently find big plays against them right now.
The Packers are in the best shape on offense they have been all season. Aaron Rodgers has his top five receivers and his top two running backs all healthy right now. He is no longer wearing a wrap on his thumb and that's a non-issue at this point. They basically just scored 31 points on the Rams as they kneeled it at the 1-yard line to finish the game after scoring 28 points against the Bears and 33 points against the Eagles in their previous two games.
We've seen this Green Bay defense shredded against the best offenses this season, and Miami classifies as one of the best offenses. The Packers allowed 27 points to the Bills, 28 to the Cowboys, 27 to the Titans and 40 to the Eagles in recent weeks. Miami should be able to do whatever it wants against this Green Bay defense both on the ground and through the air.
The OVER is 10-1 in Packers last 11 games in the second half of the season vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games in the second half of the season vs. good offensive teams averaging at least 5.65 yards per play. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-24-22||Raiders v. Steelers -2||10-13||Win||100||67 h 22 m||Show|
15* Raiders/Steelers AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -2
The Pittsburgh Steelers were already plan on honoring Franco Harris on the 50th anniversary of the "Immaculate Reception" this weekend. This game will mean even more to players, coaches and fans alike now that Harris passed away earlier this week. This is going to be a surreal atmosphere for a Pittsburgh game and an even bigger home-field advantage than normal.
We're backing a Steelers team playing some very good football coming into this one. They have won three of their last four games overall while outgaining all four opponents with their lone loss coming when they committed three turnovers in the red zone in a 2-point loss to the Ravens. They outgained the Panthers by 116 yards last week in a 24-16 road victory.
Forecasts are calling for single-digit temperatures and 15 MPH winds in Pittsburgh Sunday. I'll gladly back the blue collar team used to these conditions over the dome team in the Las Vegas Raiders who are used to warm weather. Derek Carr is 0-5 with 5 interceptions and has never thrown for more than 220 yards in games with a temperature of less than 37 degrees in his career. I'll also back the best unit on the field, which is this Pittsburgh defense that is allowing only 16.3 points per game and 278.5 yards per game over its last four games. This great run defensively has coincided with the return of TJ Watt, who means everything to this team.
The Raiders are getting too much respect for a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS run against a very easy schedule of the Broncos, Seahawks, Chargers, Rams and Patriots. They got a miracle last week against the Patriots to avoid blowing yet another double-digit lead with one of the dumbest plays you will ever see on the final play of the game. Their luck runs out this week against a motivated Steelers team that simply will want it more.
The Raiders are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS on the road this season. Las Vegas is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. AFC North opponents. The Raiders are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Las Vegas is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record. I trust Pittsburgh a lot more in this spot laying a short number at home. Take the Steelers Saturday.
|12-24-22||Middle Tennessee State v. San Diego State OVER 48||Top||25-23||Push||0||74 h 46 m||Show|
20* MTSU/SDSU Hawaii Bowl BAILOUT on OVER 48
San Diego State has had its best offense in years in the second half of the season. They fired their offensive coordinator after six games and replaced QB Burmeister with QB Mayden, who has made all the difference for their offense.
Mayden is completing 62.9% of his passes for 1,721 yards with a 10-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 205 yards and three scores in basically just half a season. It's his dual-threat ability that makes the difference, plus he's a much better passer. They put up 28 points on Fresno, 43 on San Jose and 34 on New Mexico in three of their last five games.
Middle Tennessee has no problem getting in a shootout. They boast an offense that puts up 29.2 points per game including 267 passing yards per game, and a defense that allows 28.1 points per game including 291 passing yards per game. You can pass on this San Diego State defense as they give up 207 passing yards per game and haven't faced many passing attacks as good as Middle Tennessee. They gave up 394 passing yards to Jake Haener and Fresno State for comparison.
The weather looks good for a shootout in Hawaii with temps in the 70's, light winds and no precipitation. 10 of Middle Tennessee's 12 games this season have seen 51 or more combined points. The OVER is 14-3 in MTSU's last 17 games after gaining 450 or more yards in two consecutive games. The OVER is 7-0 in Blue Raiders last seven games following a win. The OVER is 5-0 in Blue Raiders last five bowl games. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-24-22||Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 46||Top||34-40||Win||100||113 h 47 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Cowboys NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 46
I cashed in the Cowboys/Jaguars OVER last week in a game that saw 74 combined points, and I'm back on the OVER in a Cowboys game this week. They are a dead nuts OVER team right now. The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in seven consecutive games now while also gaining at least 385 yards in all seven games. Their defense has slipped down the stretch, allowing at least 19 points in six of their last seven games overall.
This total has been bet down from 50.5 to 46 now with the news that the Eagles will be without Jalen Hurts. But Gardner Minshew is arguably the best backup quarterback in the NFL and the Eagles will still hang a big number with him under center. The game plan will change to be more pass-happy, but that also benefits the OVER.
The Eagles are averaging 37 points per game in their last four games overall and have ample weapons to make Minshew's job much easier both in the passing game and the running game. Dallas Goedert could make his return at tight end this week, too. Minshew will be up against a banged up Dallas secondary that will be missing several key players, plus LB Vander Esch is out with a shoulder injury suffered last week against the Jaguars.
The Eagles also have key injuries on the defensive line and in the secondary, most notably DE Robert Quinn who they traded for out with a knee injury. So all the key playmakers for both teams are healthy right now with the exception of Hurts. And most of the notable injuries are all on defense for both teams.
I don't love playing overs in division games, but this one is different. Cooper Rush was the quarterback of the Cowboys in that first meeting, while Hurts was the quarterback for the Eagles. These are two completely different offenses with Dak Prescott and Minshew running the show, and that element of surprise on a short week will favor the offenses over the defenses. Plus, in a weekend filled with terrible weather everywhere, this game will be played in a dome in perfect scoring conditions.
I also don't think there will be as much intensity for this division rivalry as there would have been if it meant more. The Eagles basically have the NFC East locked up only needing one more win in their final three games, while the Cowboys are basically locked into the 4th seed in the NFC. Dallas beat Philadelphia 51-26 at home last season for 77 combined points. Three of the last four meetings have seen 54 or more combined points with the lone exception being that Cooper Rush game.
The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. The OVER is 6-1 in Cowboys last seven games overall. The OVER is 6-2 in Eagles last eight games overall. Dallas is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in its previous game. They just gave up 503 yards and 7.3 yards per play against the Jaguars last week. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-24-22||Commanders +7 v. 49ers||20-37||Loss||-110||63 h 12 m||Show|
15* NFL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7
I have personally cashed in the 49ers three times during their current 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS run. I won with them over Tampa Bay two weeks ago and last week over Seattle. I have had a good beat on this team. But now it's time to 'sell high' on the 49ers as I think this is a terrible spot for them, and you're starting to pay a tax to back them this week.
The 49ers just clinched the NFC West with their 21-13 win at Seattle last week. Now they are in a letdown spot as there's not much for them to play for the rest of the way other than playoff seeding. I could see them losing this game outright as a result, let alone covering this 7-point spread. Look for Kyle Shanahan to manage injured players the rest of the way and to not force them into action, meaning a lot of backups will be on the field for them.
While the 49ers don't need this game, the Washington Commanders need this game like blood after losing to the New York Giants last week. They are now just 0.5 games ahead of both teh Seahawks and Lions for the 7th and final playoff spot in the NFC. I know I'm going to get a max motivated Commanders team this week, and that should be enough to cover this spread.
The Commanders are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and a lot more healthy than the 49ers. They should get CB St.-Juste back this week as well as DE Chase Young, who they've been waiting to get back all season. The Commanders will still be fresh after having a bye week prior to that Giants game as well, which negates the 49ers' rest advantage after playing last Thursday.
Oddsmakers are expecting a defensive battle here with a 37.5-point total, so points are at a premium and worth more. Getting 7 points with the Commanders is too much this week, and we are only getting them because the refs beat them and they beat themselves last week against the Giants. It's time to 'buy low' on the Commanders now.
It's a Washington team that is 6-2-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Commanders have outgained six of their last eight opponents while only getting outgained by 18 and 38 yards in the other two contests. In fact, the Commanders haven't lost by more than one score in any of their last 10 games, so they just have a knack of playing in close games. That makes for a 10-0 system backing them pertaining to this 7-point spread. Roll with the Commanders Saturday.
|12-24-22||Saints v. Browns -3||Top||17-10||Loss||-117||122 h 17 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns -3
Deshaun Watson led the Cleveland Browns to a 13-3 home victory over the Baltimore Ravens last week. It was a big weight lifted off his shoulders, and certainly a much friendlier atmosphere playing at home. Well, he and the Browns will be back home this week where they have been at their best all season, going 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 3.0 points per game.
Cleveland should be more than a 3-point home favorite over New Orleans, which has been terrible on the road this season. The Saints are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the road this season and losing by 6.0 points per game on average. This won't be just another road game for them, either.
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 12 degrees and 30 MPH winds with a 50% chance of precipitation. I'll gladly back the Browns, who are used to these conditions, over the dome team in the Saints that aren't build for these conditions.
Due to the forecast, this game will be played on the ground, and I trust Cleveland's ground game over that of New Orleans. Nick Chubb is a go this week and leads a Cleveland rushing attack that ranks 5th in the NFL at 149.0 rushing yards per game and 11th at 4.7 yards per carry. Compare that to New Orleans, which ranks just 21st in rushing offense at 111.3 yards per game and 18th at 4.3 yards per carry. Both teams are pretty much dead even against the run, too.
The injury news is good for the Browns with DE Garrett, CB Ward, TE Njoku, WR Cooper and RB Chubb all listed as probable. The injury news for the Saints is not so good with WR Olave and WR Landry both out for this one. Andy Dalton will be without his two favorite targets. It will be a factor when the Browns take an early lead and the Saints have to try and throw to get back in the game.
The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games. New Orleans is 0-6 ATS after playing a home game this season. New Orleans is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.5 or more yards per carry in the second half of the season. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Cleveland. Take the Browns Saturday.
|12-24-22||Seahawks +10 v. Chiefs||Top||10-24||Loss||-110||122 h 16 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks +10
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Seattle Seahawks this week. They have gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall despite being favored in three of those games and not being more than a 3-point underdog once. They go from being overvalued to undervalued now as 10-point dogs. They haven't been double-digit dogs all season until now.
The spot is a good one with the Seahawks coming in on extra rest after playing last Thursday, while the Chiefs are coming off an overtime game against the Houston Texans and off three consecutive road games overall. I'm sure the Chiefs have a lot to deal with back at home with it being Christmas after being on the road the last three weeks, so they won't be fully focused for this one.
That's nothing new for the Chiefs, who are having a terrible time putting teams away. They lost by 3 at Cincinnati, only beat the Broncos by 6 and only beat the Texans by 6 in OT after being 14-point favorites. The Seahawks will never be out of this game because the Chiefs cannot stop anyone, allowing 24 or more points in four of their last five games overall.
After playing four tough defenses in their last five games in the Bucs, Rams, Panthers and 49ers, the Seahawks should get right offensively here. They have still scored 24 or more points in six of their last eight games overall. Kenneth Walker should have a big game on the ground as he has extra time to heal his ankle after returning last week. Geno Smith will dice up this Kansas City secondary.
No question the Chiefs are going to get their points, but they aren't looking to run up the score. They just want to get in and get out with a win, which is what they have been doing for the majority of the season. The Chiefs have only three wins all season by more than 10 points.
Kansas City is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Kansas City is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a SU win. Pete Carroll is 19-4 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle. Andy Reid is 0-8 ATS in home games following three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse as a head coach having never covered in this situation. Bet the Seahawks Saturday.
|12-23-22||Hornets v. Lakers OVER 235.5||Top||134-130||Win||100||21 h 1 m||Show|
20* Hornets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 235.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and are a terrible defensive team. They allow 117.3 points per game on the season and have allowed 116 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.
The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team, too. They rank 26th in defensive efficiency and 9th in pace, this despite playing without La'Melo Ball for most of the season. But Ball is back now so they will be playing even faster and will be more efficient on offense with him.
The Lakers have combined for 234 or more points with their opponents in eight consecutive games. The Hornets and their opponents have combined for 231 or more points in six consecutive games. They have allowed 119 or more points in nine consecutive games.
The Lakers are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 games vs. NBA Southeast division teams. The OVER is 11-3 in Hornets 14 games as road underdogs this season. The OVER is 20-8 in Hornets last 28 road games. The OVER is 6-0 in Lakers last six games following an ATS loss. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-23-22||Wizards v. Kings -8.5||125-111||Loss||-105||21 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -8.5
The Washington Wizards are 1-11 SU & 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Now they are in the toughest spot any NBA team has been in all season tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing in the altitude in Utah last night. They will also be playing their 5th road game in 7 days tonight.
The Wizards will have nothing left in the tank for the Kings, who will test their tired legs by playing at the 5th-fasted pace in the NBA this season. It will also be just the 3rd game in 7 days for Sacramento, so they are fresh and ready to go. The Kings are 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall and one of the most improved teams in the NBA. Six of those seven wins have come by 9 points or more, which would cover this 8.5-point spread.
The Wizards are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Washington is 0-6-2 ATS in its last eight Friday games. Sacramento is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on one day of rest. The Kings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record. Sacramento is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Washington. Roll with the Kings Friday.
|12-23-22||Grizzlies v. Suns UNDER 226.5||Top||125-100||Win||100||20 h 22 m||Show|
20* Grizzlies/Suns ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5
The Memphis Grizzlies have been dominant defensively since getting the best defender in the NBA in Jaren Jackson Jr. back from injury. They have allowed 105 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall. But they have struggled on offense on the road of late, scoring 91 points against the Nuggets, 109 against the Thunder and 101 against the Timberwolves in three of their last four road games.
The Phoenix Suns are missing too many players right now to be trusted to score too many points, but they bring it defensively almost every night. The Suns rank 11th in defensive efficiency while the Grizzlies rank 5th. The Suns are without leading scorer Devin Booker (28.0 PPG, 5.8 APG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (12.7 PPG), which also rank Top 5 in scoring for them.
Memphis is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games after winning four or five of its last six games. Phoenix is 26-10-1 UNDER in its last 37 games following a loss. The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 15-5 in the last 20 meetings in Phoenix. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-23-22||Grizzlies -2.5 v. Suns||125-100||Win||100||20 h 22 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5
The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing to the Thunder and Nuggets to open this road trip, which followed up a 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS run. Look for them to get back to how they were playing before dropping those two games tonight.
Of course, it helps that the Suns are missing three of their top five scores. The Suns are without Devin Booker (28.0 PPG, 5.8 APG), Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (12.7 PPG) tonight. They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive without these three.
The Suns are really struggling amidst all these injuries as they are going through their worst stretch of the season right now. They are just 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall and coming off an upset home loss to the Washington Wizards as 7-point favorites. That's a Wizards team that is 1-11 in their last 12 games overall with their lone victory against Phoenix.
Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Phoenix) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against an opponent that is off a road loss are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Memphis is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following a road loss by 10 points or more. The Grizzlies are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Phoenix. Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.
|12-23-22||Bucks v. Nets OVER 225.5||100-118||Loss||-110||18 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Nets OVER 225.5
The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts OVER team right now. The OVER is 6-1 in their last seven games overall and we've seen 235 or more combined points in six of those seven games. That makes this 225.5-point total very low for a game involving the Nets tonight.
The Bucks have both Giannis and Jrue Holiday back healthy and are only missing Khris Middleton, who they have played without for most of the season. They have scored 123 or more points in three of their last five games overall while allowing at least 111 points in four of their last five.
The Nets and Bucks have combined for at least 226 points in five of their last six meetings. The OVER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The OVER is 6-1 in Nets last seven games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-23-22||Bulls v. Knicks UNDER 226||118-117||Loss||-110||18 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Knicks UNDER 226
I love this spot for an UNDER bet between the New York Knicks and Chicago Bulls. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and this will be the 3rd meeting in 10 days between the Knicks and Bulls.
In their first meeting on December 14th, the Bulls and Knicks combined for 234 points at the end of regulation before going to OT. That familiarity took its toll in the 2nd meeting on December 16th with the Bulls and Knicks combining for just 205 points. And now we have a 226-point total for the 3rd meeting, which is way too high.
The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings and the Bulls and Knicks have combined for 213 or fewer points in seven of those nine meetings. The UNDER is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 games overall. Chicago is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-23-22||Clippers +3.5 v. 76ers||114-119||Loss||-110||18 h 31 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Clippers +3.5
The Los Angeles Clippers were the preseason favorites to win the NBA title and for good reason with their star power and depth. Well, they were injured for most of the season, but now we are seeing what they are capable of when healthy, especially when having Kawhi Leonard on the court.
The Clippers have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and have won five of their last six. The only game they lost was in a 2nd of a back-to-back situation when they sat Leonard. Now the Clippers will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days and have all hands on deck tonight. They should not be underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers.
It's time to 'sell high' on the 76ers, who are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall against a very soft schedule. The only decent teams they played were the Kings and Raptors, and they needed OT to beat the Raptors and OT to beat the Lakers. The other wins came against the Hornets, Warriors without their stars and Pistons. This is a huge step up in class for the 76ers tonight.
The Clippers are 9-1 ATS following a non-conference game this season. Wrong team favored here. Roll with the Clippers Friday.
|12-23-22||Spurs v. Magic OVER 226||Top||113-133||Win||100||18 h 31 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Spurs/Magic OVER 226
The Orlando Magic are healthy and playing well right now, especially on offense. They have gone 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall and have scored at least 111 points in seven of those eight games.
The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team. They play fast and ply no defense, ranking dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency this season. They allow 119.7 points per game and opponents shoot 50.4% against them. The Magic rank just 20th in defensive efficiency, too.
The Spurs just lost 117-126 at New Orleans last night for 243 combined points, and that was a Pelicans team missing Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. The Spurs didn't have leading scorer Keldon Johnson (21.1 PPG) for that game, but he is expected to return tonight and the Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season now.
The OVER is 5-1 in Spurs last six games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in Magic last five games overall. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. San Antonio is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-23-22||Wake Forest -125 v. Missouri||Top||27-17||Win||100||48 h 16 m||Show|
25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Wake Forest ML -125
Let's start by naming the players that Missouri will be missing for this game. They will be without their leading receiver and top playmaker in Dominic Lovett, who has 56 receptions for 846 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 15.1 yards per receptions. Their next-leading receiver has 36 receptions for 403 yards, so he will be missed for a Missouri offense that already isn't very good.
The Tigers will also be without arguably their three best defenders who are all opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. DE McGuire (39 tackles, 7.5 sacks), DD Coleman (39 tackles, 6 sacks) and S Manueal (47 tackles, 4 sacks) are all out. They are going to struggle to get pressure on Sam Hartman and this explosive Wake Forest offense, especially without those two defensive ends.
Speaking of Hartman, he has opted to play in this game, and they only lose a backup RB and a starting cornerback to the transfer portal with zero opt-outs. Hartman has a 35-to-10 TD/INT ratio on the season and wants to finish what he started here at Wake Forest, and his team will have his back Friday night. He leads a Wake Forest offense averaging 36.8 points per game on the season.
Compare that to Missouri, which averages just 25.5 points per game, and it's easy to see which team has the better offense. And now QB Brady Cook (12 TD/7 INT) won't have his favorite receiver in Lovett. This Missouri defense is good allowing 25.0 points per game, but not having their top three defenders will make things a lot more difficult. Wake Forest has an average defense at 29.3 points per game allowed, but their job is much easier this week preparing for this hapless Missouri offense.
We are getting great value on Wake Forest after going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its final five games, which is the only reason this line is close to a PK. But the Demon Deacons are 7-5 this season and better than that record as four of the five losses came by single-digits including three by 6 points or fewer. The only exception was when they committed eight turnovers against Louisville to give the game away.
Wake Forest is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 31 points or more in three consecutive games. Plays on any team (Wake Forest) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in their last five games, in December games are 55-22 (71.4%) ATS since 1992. The Tigers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 December games.
Dave Clawson is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of Wake Forest. Clawson is 8-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of the Demon Deacons. Clawson stated he was excited to be playing an SEC team in their bowl and will be playing that motivational angle. I trust Clawson and Hartman to get the troops ready and put an exclamation point on their season this week against an overmatched Missouri team that is missing too many key players. Bet Wake Forest on the Money Line Friday.
|12-22-22||Southern Miss +8.5 v. UNLV||63-74||Loss||-110||10 h 43 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +8.5
Southern Miss is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Golden Eagles are 11-1 SU this season with their lone loss by 2 points. They are also 8-1 ATS in their lined games.
Amazingly, Southern Miss has done its best work in true road games this season. The Golden Eagles are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in true road games with an upset win at Vanderbilt by 12 as 16-point dogs, an upset win at Liberty by 4 as 11.5-point dogs and a blowout win at Lamar by 26 as 13.5-point favorites.
This is a terrible spot for UNLV. They just had their 10-game winning streak to start the season snapped with a 73-75 home loss to San Francisco as 6-point favorites. I always like fading teams after having a long winning streak snapped because they tend to be flat their next game out since they aren't trying to keep a streak alive. It's the kind of loss that could easily beat the Rebels twice, let alone having to win by 9 points or more to beat us tonight.
The Golden Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Rebels won't have much of a home-court advantage at all tonight with a game this close to Christmas, and their home court is being factored into this line too much, especially considering how good the Golden Eagles have been on the road. Take Southern Miss Thursday.
|12-22-22||Wizards v. Jazz OVER 229||Top||112-120||Win||100||18 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Jazz OVER 229
The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 5th in offensive efficiency this season and 25th in defensive efficiency. They face a Washington team that ranks 20th in defensive efficiency and has been much better on offense when both Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis are healthy.
Well, both of these teams are fully healthy right now with the exception of Collin Sexton for the Jazz. But he has been out for a while now and the Jazz have continued playing in high-scoring games. Indeed, the Jazz have seen 220 or more combined points in each of their last 19 games.
The Wizards are starting to feel it on offense scoring 113 or more points in three of their last four games as well as 111 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. But they have allowed 110 or more points in 14 of their last 15 games overall.
These teams played earlier this season on November 12th with the Wizards winning 121-112 for 233 combined points. Utah is 14-4 OVER in its last 18 home games following a win by 10 points or more. Washington is 12-2 OVER in its last 14 games vs. Northwest Division opponents. The OVER is 6-1-1 in Wizards last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.
|12-22-22||Jaguars +2 v. Jets||19-3||Win||100||19 h 21 m||Show|
15* Jaguars/Jets AFC ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +2
We have two teams headed in opposite directions and two quarterbacks headed in opposite direction in this matchup Thursday night. I'll side with the team playing with confidence and with the better quarterback over the team that is slumping and doesn't believe in its quarterback.
Don't look now but the Jaguars have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset wins over the Ravens, Titans and Cowboys to pull within one game of first place of the Titans in the AFC South. They host the Titans in Week 18, so they are very much alive to win this division now and believing they can.
A lot of that belief comes from the performance of the offense and Lawrence. He has a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last six games and is completing 66% of his passes for 3,520 yards with 24 touchdowns and only seven interceptions on the season. He is also a dual-threat with 239 rushing yards and 4.9 per carry with four scores. The Jaguars are loaded with weapons at receiver for him on the outside, and they have a steady rushing attack with Travis Etienne, who has rushed for 917 yards and 5.0 per carry on the season.
Zach Wilson is completing just 54.9% of his passes for 1,596 yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions while rushing for 101 yards and 3.7 per carry with one score. He is only playing right now because Mike White is hurt, and it's a big downgrade for them at quarterback. They had built up some momentum with White but that's gone now.
The Jets do have the better defense, but I don't think that's enough to make up for the advantage the Jaguars have on offense. The weather will be bad for this game with a 100% chance of precipitation and 20 MPH winds. So the team that runs the ball better and takes care of the football better is likely going to win, and I trust Lawrence over Wilson as far as turnovers go.
The Jets haven't been able to run the ball very well since they lost Breece Hall at running back. In their last five games, the Jets were held to 59 yards on 23 carries by the Patriots, 76 yards on 22 carries by the Bills and 50 yards on 22 carries by the Lions. They only had success against the terrible Bears and Vikings defenses. The Jaguars just rushed for 192 yards on the Cowboys last week. They rank 6th in the NFL at 4.9 yards per carry while the Jets rank 21st at 4.3 yards per carry. The Jets are only slightly better against the run defensively allowing 4.1 per carry compared to 4.2 per carry for Jacksonville.
The Jets have lost three straight and four of their last five games overall with their lone win coming against the Bears who were without Justin Fields. Wrong team favored here. Take the Jaguars Thursday.
|12-22-22||Air Force +6.5 v. Baylor||Top||30-15||Win||100||210 h 34 m||Show|
20* Air Force/Baylor Armed Forces Bowl No-Brainer on Air Force +6.5
Air Force went 9-3 this season with all three losses by 7 points or fewer. That's how close they were to a perfect 12-0 season. They were probably the best team in the Mountain West, but it didn't play out that way as they came up just short of making the title game. But the Falcons finished strong winning their final four games and will be very much looking forward to facing a Power 5 team in Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl.
I don't think Baylor wants to be here at all. Remember, the Bears won the Big 12 last season and beat Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl to finish 12-2. Now they are just 6-6 this season and coming off three consecutive losses to finish the regular season to Kansas State, TCU and Texas. They aren't going to enjoy preparing for the triple-option in practice, and I don't think they are going to be motivated at all to beat Air Force as this is a big step down in quality of bowl compared to a year ago.
Baylor defensive coordinator Ron Roberts was fired at the end of the regular season and safety Devin Neal (41 tackles) opted to transfer. This is a Baylor defense that slipped big time this season allowing 26.6 points per game and 370.3 yards per game. And I give the edge to Air Force on defense, allowing just 13.3 points per game and 255.8 yards per game on the season.
This Air Force offense is actually pretty explosive for a triple-option offense. They average 6.1 yards per play and 5.6 yards per carry on the season behind 336 rushing yards per game. This Baylor defense allowed 29 or more points in four consecutive games to finish the season and will struggle to defend the triple-option. They allowed 184 or more rushing yards in three of their last four games as well.
Plays on neutral field underdogs (Air Force) - an excellent ball control team that averages 32 or more possession minutes per game are 75-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Falcons are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games. Air Force is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.
Finally, the forecast is calling for nearly 30 MPH winds and 20 degrees, so that clearly favors the Falcons and their triple-option and really takes away Baylor's passing attack. Service Academy's are 70% ATS since 1990 in bowls and always show up, while Baylor has questionable motivation. Take Air Force Thursday.
|12-22-22||Yale -13.5 v. Monmouth||76-44||Win||100||7 h 43 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Yale -13.5
The Yale Bulldogs are one of the best mid-majors in the country. They are 9-3 this season with their three losses all coming on the road to the three best teams they have played in Colorado by 3 as 9-point dogs, Butler by 10 as 6.5-point dogs and Kentucky by 10 as 16-point dogs. The Bulldogs have won the majority of their games in blowouts with seven of their nine wins coming by 13 points or more.
Now they face one of the worst teams in the country in Monmouth. The Hawks are 1-11 SU & 4-8 ATS this season and getting outscored by 21.9 points per game. Nine of their 11 losses have come by 15 points or more, so it's not asking much of Yale to cover this 13.5-point spread. They are coming off a 34-point home loss to Charlotte.
The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Yale Thursday.
|12-21-22||South Alabama v. Western Kentucky OVER 56||Top||23-44||Win||100||187 h 5 m||Show|
20* South Alabama/WKU New Orleans Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 56
Western Kentucky starting QB Austin Reed (4,247 yards, 36 TD's) originally entered the transfer portal and this total dropped big time from the 61.5-point opener. But Reed has decided to stay with the program and will play in this bow game, and the books have failed to adjust it back up to where it should be. We'll take advantage and back the OVER 56 here.
Reed leads a Western Kentucky offense that is averaging 35.8 points, 484 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play. The Hilltoppers will be up against one of the best offenses in the Sun Belt in the South Alabama Jaguars. They average 31.9 points per game, 426 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. They have scored at least 27 points in 10 of their 12 games this season. WKU has scored at least 27 points in 10 of its 13 games. Good chance both teams get to at least 28 in this one, which is all we need to cash this OVER.
Conditions will obviously be perfect for a shootout in this New Orleans Bowl with it being played inside the Caesars Superdome. The OVER is 11-3 in WKU's last 14 games as underdogs. The OVER is 6-0 in WKU's lat six games after winning four or five of its last six games. The OVER is 24-9 in WKU's last 33 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game. The OVER is 5-1 in Jaguars last six non-conference games. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|12-21-22||Blazers -4 v. Thunder||98-101||Loss||-110||13 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers -4
The Portland Trail Blazers will be out for revenge from a 121-123 loss at Oklahoma City on Monday. Now they get to face the Thunder here two days later and don't have to wait long to get their revenge. I expect them to blow the Thunder out of the building tonight.
Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKC) - off a close home win by 3 points or less in the first half of the season are 55-22 (71.4%) ATS since 1996. Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that is coming off a home win scoring 110 or more points are 58-22 (72.5%) ATS since 1996.
Plays home road favorites (Portland) - revenging a loss where opponents scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 60-27 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons. I always look to back teams that lost the first meeting in these quick rematch situations because they are the more motivated team. Plus, they haven't adjusted the spread as Portland is once again a 4-point favorite just as it was on Monday. Take the Blazers Wednesday.
|12-21-22||Blazers v. Thunder OVER 234||98-101||Loss||-110||12 h 23 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Thunder OVER 234
Both the Portland Trail Blazers and Oklahoma City Thunder are dead nuts OVER teams right now. They just combined for 244 points on Monday and will be playing in a rematch here. It's not like they shot lights out either with the Blazers shooting 50% and the Thunder 45.5% for the game.
The Blazers have now scored at least 116 points in seven of their last nine games overall. They have allowed at least 111 points in 14 of their last 16 games overall. As long as Lillard, Simons and Grant are all on the court at the same time they are going to be an OVER team, and all three are healthy right now.
Oklahoma City has embraced an up-tempo style this season as they rank 4th in the NBA in pace. As long as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is healthy and running the show, they are an OVER team as well. They have allowed at least 110 points in 10 consecutive games coming in.
Portland is 8-1 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The OVER is 6-0 in Blazers last six games playing on one day of rest. The OVER is 10-3 in Thunder last 13 home games. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|12-21-22||Magic v. Rockets OVER 223||Top||116-110||Win||100||12 h 6 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Magic/Rockets OVER 223
The Orlando Magic have gotten a lot healthier of late and are playing some of their best basketball of the season. They have scored at least 111 points in six of their last seven games overall while going 6-1 during this stretch.
The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 11th in pace this season and 27th in defensive efficiency. The Magic also aren't a very good defensive team ranking 21st in defensive efficiency.
These teams met earlier this season with the Rockets winning 134-127 for 261 combined points. The OVER is now 3-1 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 224 or more points in all four. In fact, these teams have combined for at least 222 points in each of their last seven meetings, so this 223-point total is very low given their head-to-head history.
They have averaged 234.3 combined points in their last seven meetings with none of those games going to overtime. The OVER is 5-1-1 in those seven meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|12-21-22||Warriors v. Nets OVER 223.5||Top||113-143||Win||100||12 h 9 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Nets NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 223.5
The Brooklyn Nets are rolling right now going 6-0 in their last six games overall while scoring at least 112 points in all six victories and averaging 122.2 points per game with none of those games going to overtime. I expect them to top that average tonight to lead the way in helping us cash this OVER ticket.
The Nets now play a Warriors squad that is a dead nuts OVER team. The Warriors rank 6th in the NBA in pace this season and allow 117.1 points per game. They have really slipped defensively and just gave up 134 points to the Knicks last night. I know the Warriors have some injuries that hurt them offensively, but this total has been adjusted down too much for it. They will get enough against a bad Brooklyn defense to help us cash this OVER.
The OVER is 5-0 in Warriors last five games overall. The OVER is 20-7-2 in Warriors last 29 road games. The OVER is 5-1 in Nets last six games overall. The OVER is 13-3 in all Golden State road games this season. The OVER is 11-2 in Warriors games when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. The OVER is 9-0 in Warriors last nine games when playing their 4th road game in 7 days. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|12-21-22||Kent State -3.5 v. New Mexico State||Top||73-63||Win||100||13 h 57 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kent State -3.5
Kent State is the most underrated team in the country. The Golden Flashes are 8-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their lined games this season. Their three losses came at Gonzaga by 7 as 16-point dogs, at Houston by 5 as 19-point dogs and at College of Charleston by 2 as 2.5-point dogs. Those losses alone show how good this team is without even going through their wins.
Now they take on a New Mexico State team that should be no match for them. The Aggies are 6-4 this season with losses to St. Mary's by 13, to UC Irvine by 17, to UTEP by 3 and to Santa Clara by 1. The six wins came against inferior competition. This will be their toughest test of the season with the exception of that road loss at St. Mary's.
The Golden Flashes are 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall. The Aggies are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a win by more than 20 points. Bet Kent State Wednesday.
|12-21-22||Clemson v. Georgia Tech +1.5||79-66||Loss||-110||12 h 9 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgia Tech +1.5
Wrong team favored here. Georgia Tech has a big home-court advantage this season going 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home while outscoring opponents by 20.5 points per game. Clemson is 0-1 in true road games this season with a loss at terrible South Carolina.
Home-court advantage has been big in this series with the home team going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings. Georgia Tech has owned Clemson recently going 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
The Tigers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 road games. The Yellow Jackets are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after committing 11 or fewer turnovers in three consecutive games. Josh Pastner is 19-8 ATS in home games with a line of +3 to -3 as the coach of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech Wednesday.
|12-21-22||St. John's v. Villanova UNDER 146.5||63-78||Win||100||11 h 9 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on St. John's/Villanova UNDER 146.5
This is a pace war tonight. St. John's likes to play fast, while Villanova ranks ranks 349th in the country in adjusted tempo and likes to play at a snail's pace. The home team usually controls the tempo, so this game will be played at Villanova's pace.
Villanova's last four games have seen 136, 129, 133 and 135 combined points. This is a very high total for any game involving Villanova. We saw St. John's play one true road game at Iowa State against another team that likes to play at a slow pace. That game saw just 131 combined points in a 71-60 victory for the Cyclones.
The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings between Villanova and St. John's. Each of the last eight meetings have seen 144 or fewer combined points, including 139 or fewer in seven of them. Enough said. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|12-21-22||Eastern Illinois +33 v. Iowa||Top||92-83||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Illinois +33
Iowa moved this game up to a 3:30 EST start time due to snow in the forecast today. That will take away their usual home-court advantage at night. I think they just want to get in and get out with a win today and won't be concerned about getting margin.
That's going to make it really difficult for the Hawkeyes to cover this 33-point spread. Not to mention, the Hawkeyes remain without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG), who is out until at least January.
Eastern Illinois is just 3-9 SU but 5-4-1 ATS and has not lost a single game by this kind of margin yet. Their largest loss came by 30 at Illinois in the season opener, and if they can stay within 30 of Illinois, they can stay within 33 of Iowa without Murray. They also only lost by 22 at Ohio State, another Big Ten opponent that is better than Iowa.
They covered the spread in both of those games and will improve to 3-0 ATS against Big Ten teams with this inflated number. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Take Eastern Illinois Wednesday.
|12-20-22||Grizzlies -120 v. Nuggets||91-105||Loss||-120||9 h 8 m||Show|
15* Grizzlies/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis ML -120
The Memphis Grizzlies are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with all seven victories coming by 8 points or more. They were coming off a 41-point win over the Bucks and simply had a letdown against the Thunder last time out in an upset road loss as a double-digit favorite.
They took the Thunder lightly, but they will be refocused now against the Nuggets. Look for them to get back to playing their best basketball of the season as nobody is playing better right now. They come in rested and ready to go on two days' rest and playing just their 4th game in 11 days. They are fully healthy with the exception of Desmond Bane, who has been out since November 11 anyway.
Injuries are a much bigger concern for the Nuggets right now. They are without Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray is questionable and Nikola Jokic is probable but dealing with a knee injury. That's their three best players. I love the matchup for the Grizzlies because they can guard Jokic better than anyone by putting Jaren Jackson Jr. on him, the league's best, most versatile defender. Memphis has allowed 103 or fewer points in five of its last six games overall and 115 or fewer in nine consecutive games.
The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Denver is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games playing on one days' rest. The Nuggets are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games following a win. Memphis is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with the Grizzlies on the Money Line Tuesday.
|12-20-22||Wizards +7.5 v. Suns||113-110||Win||100||8 h 7 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Wizards tonight. They have lost 10 consecutive games but were competitive in all 10 as none of them came by more than 13 points, and six game by single-digits. And they didn't have their best player in Bradley Beal for the majority of them. Well, Beal is back healthy now and the Wizards are as healthy as they have been all season.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Phoenix Suns, who are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. But this is a terrible spot for the Suns as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 17 days.
The Suns are getting way too much respect tonight for blowing out the Lakers last night, who were without both James and Davis and a few others. Well, the Suns cannot be this big of a favorite given all their injury concerns right now. The Suns are without Cam Johnson, and Devin Booker (groin) and Cameron Payne (foot) are both questionable.
Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 game vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and has a way of playing to its level of competition. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Washington) - following three or more consecutive road losses in December games are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996. Take the Wizards Tuesday.
|12-20-22||Toledo -4.5 v. Liberty||21-19||Loss||-110||162 h 35 m||Show|
15* Toledo/Liberty Boca Raton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Toledo -4.5
The Liberty Flames were in line for a New Year's 6 bowl after an 8-1 start and coming off an upset win at Arkansas. They have since gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS losing three times outright as double-digit favorites. So they had a great shot at going 11-1, and simply fell apart. I don't think they care at all about being in this bowl game for a number of reasons.
The streak started with a 33-36 loss at UConn a 13-point favorites. It continues with a 22-23 loss to Virginia Tech as 10.5-point home favorites. And the bottom completely fell out in a 14-49 home loss to New Mexico State as 24-point favorites in the regular season finale.
They must have learned that Hugh Freeze was leaving for Auburn prior to that shocking loss to New Mexico State, failing to cover by a whopping 59 points. This is now a program in limbo and a lot of these players are likely to transfer out now that they won't be playing for Freeze. LB Ahmad Walker (64 tackles), DL Dre Butler and WR Jaivian Lofton have all entered the portal thus far.
Toledo has elite numbers this season. This despite a couple throw away games to end the regular season after they had clinched their spot in the MAC Championship Game. They lost outright to Bowling Green and Western Michigan in games they didn't care about. But then they played up to their potential in the title game, beating Ohio 17-7 while outgaining the Bobcats by 128 yards.
QB Dequan Finn missed a couple games down the stretch and they struggled without him. But he returned for the MAC Championship Game and looked healthy. Finn is completing 59.2% of his passes for 2,132 yards with 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on the season, while also rushing for 609 yards and eight scores on 5.4 per carry. It's a balanced Toledo offense averaging 178 rushing yards per game and 228 passing yards per game. And it's a very good Toledo defense holding opponents to 25.5 points per game, 332 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.
I know Toledo wants to be here, and there's a good chance Liberty doesn't even show up. Even if they do, I still think the Rockets cover this 4.5-point spread with the potential of an absolute blowout if the Flames fold like they did in their final three games of the regular season. Toledo is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after losing two of its last three games. The Flames are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. Independent teams. Roll with Toledo Tuesday.
|12-20-22||Jazz v. Pistons +2.5||Top||126-111||Loss||-110||6 h 7 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +2.5
The Utah Jazz are 0-6 SU in their last six road games yet they are favored on the road here against the Detroit Pistons. They just lost by 26 at Milwaukee and by 23 at Cleveland and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days. This is a terrible spot for the Jazz to say the least.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who have lost five of their last six games coming in but were competitive in all six. They haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 11 points and have played a brutal schedule too against Memphis (twice), Dallas, Miami, New Orleans, LA Lakers, Sacramento, Brooklyn and Charlotte. This is actually a step down in class for them from what they have been facing.
Utah is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after trailing its previous game by 15 points or more at halftime. The Jazz are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following two or more consecutive road losses. Detroit is 40-20 ATS in its last 60 games following a home loss. Utah is 14-36-3 ATS in its last 53 games following an ATS loss. Detroit is 9-2-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pistons won 125-116 in Utah earlier this season to improve to 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Pistons Tuesday.
|12-20-22||Marquette v. Providence UNDER 149.5||98-103||Loss||-110||5 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Marquette/Providence UNDER 149.5
Both Marquette and Providence rank inside the Top 100 in adjusted defense. The Golden Eagles are allowing 67.6 points per game on 42.6% shooting this season, while the Friars are allowing 67.2 points per game on 41.9% shooting.
The head-to-head history really jumps out and shows that this 149.5-point total is too high. Indeed, Marquette and Providence have combined for 148 or fewer points in each of the last four meetings, and 148 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven of their last eight meetings. They have averaged just 138.6 combined points per game at the end of regulation in their last eight meetings.
Providence is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games following an upset win as an underdog. We're seeing just 126.5 combined points per game in this spot. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|12-19-22||Rams v. Packers -7||Top||12-24||Win||100||50 h 32 m||Show|
20* Rams/Packers ESPN No-Brainer on Green Bay -7
The Green Bay Packers kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 28-19 win over the Bears. They have since had a bye week and are as healthy as they have been all season. Aaron Rodgers was practicing without a wrap on his thumb for the first time since he injured it this week. I love the spot for the Packers on Monday Night Football.
Rodgers has his full compliment of weapons now with Lazard, Watson, Tonyan, Cobb, Jones and Doubs all healthy. Watson has really emerged as a playmaker with eight touchdowns in his last four games. They scored 33 points on the Eagles the week prior to scoring 28 against the Bears.
The Packers should have their way on offense against a Rams defense that is expected to be withotu Aaron Donald again. The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall. But the bigger concern is on the other side of the football for Los Angeles.
The Rams are without their three best players on offense in Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Allan Robinson. They were struggling even with these guys, and it has obviously been even worse without them. The Rams rank 29th in scoring offense at 16.8 points per game, 31st in total offense at 283.0 yards per game and 32nd at 4.7 yards per play. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL which is perhaps the biggest issue for them.
No, Baker Mayfield is not the answer. He pulled off a miracle erasing a 16-3 deficit in the final four minutes to beat the Raiders 17-16 last week. But that works in our favor here because this line is now lower than it should be after the Rams pulled off the upset. Let's just look at it from a line value perspective.
The Rams were 6.5-point home dogs to the Raiders, and now are only 7-point road dogs to the Packers. I think the Packers and Raiders are pretty much equal teams, so when adjusting for home-field advantage this line should be closer to Packers -10. Then throw in the fact that it's a warm weather team in the Rams going outdoors to play in freezing temps at Lambeau Field with the forecast calling for low 20's, and the Packers should definitely be more than 7-point favorites. They have one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL late in the season.
The Packers simply own the Rams, going 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Packers winning by 8 points or more in all seven victories. They won by 8, 14, 14 and 21 points in their last four home meetings with the Rams. Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. NFC opponents. Bet the Packers Monday.
|12-19-22||Spurs v. Rockets OVER 226.5||124-105||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Rockets OVER 226.5
Both the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets are dead nuts OVER teams and this is a very low total for a game involving these two teams. The Spurs rank 5th in the NBA in pace this season while the Rockets rank 12th. The Spurs rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency while the Rockets ranks 27th.
The Spurs and Rockets have combined for at least 227 points in each of their last five meetings and an average of 239.4 combined points per game in those five meetings with none going to OT. Thats roughly 13 points more than this 226.5-point total, so we are getting a ton of value on the OVER tonight. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.
|12-19-22||Blazers -6.5 v. Thunder||Top||121-123||Loss||-115||9 h 35 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers -6.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are without four of their best players tonight in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.2 PPG, 5.8 APG), Josh Giddey (14.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 5.5 APG), Robinson-Earl (8.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Bazley (5.9 PPG) tonight. They stand no chance of being competitive with the Portland Trail Blazers as a result.
The Blazers are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Damian Lillard is back healthy and they are humming on offense scoring 116 or more points in six of those eight games.
The Thunder did pull off the upset as 11-point home dogs to the Grizzlies last time out as the Grizzlies took them lightly, and JA Morant was ejected in the first half. That result is keeping this spread lower than it should be. A lot of times teams can have one good performance in their first game without their stars, but then it progressively gets worse. I don't expect the Blazers to take them lightly after seeing that Memphis result.
Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKC) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime are 52.20 (72.2%) ATS since 1996. The Blazers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games when their opponent scored 100 or more points in their previous game. Portland is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 road games. The Blazers are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that force 15 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Take the Blazers Monday.
|12-18-22||Giants v. Commanders -4.5||Top||20-12||Loss||-110||141 h 35 m||Show|
20* Giants/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington -4.5
I think the Washington Commanders are in the best spot of any team all season this week. They played the Giants two weeks ago, had a bye last week, and now get to face the Giants again. They are rested and ready to go, plus they have been game planning for the Giants for three weeks now. This one has blowout written all over it given the favorable spot for them.
These teams are both 7-5-1 but one is legit and one is a fraud, and both are going in opposite directions. The Commanders are 6-1-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Giants are 0-3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in their last four games overall. They are coming off a 22-48 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Giants are as banged up as any team in the NFL right now. They are missing playmakers at receiver, Saquon Barkley isn't right, and they have cluster injuries on defense. That defense has been gashed for 31.8 points per game and 400.8 yards per game in their last four games. The rush defense has really been gashed for an average of 186.8 rushing yards per game allowed in the last four.
Washington has rushed for at least 128 yards in seven of its last eight games overall and will find plenty of success against the Giants on the ground to take pressure off of Taylor Heineke. They rushed for 165 yards and managed 411 total yards in that first meeting with the Giants two weeks ago. They outgained the Giants by 95 yards in that game and deserved better than a tie.
The favorable spot for Washington should have them more than 4.5-point favorites here. They were 2.5-point road favorites in that first meeting, and are now 4.5-point home favorites in the rematch. That's only a 2-point adjustment for flipping home fields. It's worth more than 2, and it's certainly worth more than 2 given the favorable spot for the Commanders off the bye and with the Giants gassed and having cluster injuries everywhere.
The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine December games. Washington is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Ron Rivera is 16-5 ATS in home games after winning four or five of his last six games as a head coach. This one has blowout written all over it. Bet the Commanders Sunday night.
|12-18-22||Hornets v. Nuggets OVER 235.5||115-119||Loss||-110||10 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Hornets/Nuggets OVER 235.5
The Charlotte Hornets were already a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 9th in the NBA in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency on the season. And that's even without their best player in La'Melo Ball (21.6 PPG, 7.0 APG) for all but five games this season. Well, Ball is back now and the Hornets will play at an even faster pace with him and be a much better offensive team while still being terrible on defense.
The Denver Nuggets are on OVER team because they are so good on offense, ranking 2nd in offensive efficiency. Only the Boston Celtics have been better. The Nuggets have really slipped defensively this season ranking 28th in defensive efficiency. Denver's last seven games have all seen at least 225 combined points.
Charlotte is a perfect 9-0 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season and we're seeing 242.8 combined points per game in this spot. The OVER is 9-1 in Hornets last 10 road games following a home loss by 10 points or more. The OVER is 9-0 in Hornets last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-18-22||Nets v. Pistons +8.5||124-121||Win||100||8 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +8.5
It's time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets. They have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall but eight of their last nine wins have come by single-digits. They have simply been fortunate in close games, and I think this one goes down to the wire against the Detroit Pistons, too.
It's time to 'buy low' on the Pistons. They have lost four of their last five games against a very tough schedule with road losses to the Pelicans by 6 and the Grizzlies by 11 as well as home losses to the Lakers by 7 and Kings by 9. They also went on the road and upset the Hornets. They are now catching too many points at home today to the Nets.
Brooklyn is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win. The Pistons are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Detroit is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Pistons Sunday.
|12-18-22||Knicks v. Pacers OVER 226.5||109-106||Loss||-110||7 h 39 m||Show|
15* Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Knicks/Pacers OVER 226.5
Any game involving the Indiana Pacers with a total of less than 230 I'm going to take my first look at the OVER. They are dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in the NBA in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency.
The Pacers just combined for 230 points with the Cavaliers and 244 points with the Warriors in their last two games. In fact, they have combined for 230 or more points with their opponents in five of their last six games overall.
The New York Knicks are rolling on offense right now and playing a lot faster. They have scored at least 112 points in five consecutive games going in. They will stay hot against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Pacers today.
The OVER is 35-15-1 in Pacers last 51 home games. The OVER is 28-11 in Pacers last 39 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-18-22||Titans v. Chargers -2.5||14-17||Win||100||137 h 39 m||Show|
15* Titans/Chargers AFC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2.5
This Los Angeles Chargers offense is so much more potent when both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are on the field at the same time. Williams returned last week to join Allen as the Chargers beat the Dolphins 23-17 in what was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.
The Chargers racked up 432 total yards and held the Dolphins to 219 total yards, outgaining them by 213 yards. Justin Herbert went 39-of-51 passing for 367 yards in the win. Williams had 6 receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown while Allen had 12 receptions for 92 yards. Austin Ekeler also had 104 scrimmage yards and a score. This is one of the best offenses in the NFL with Herbert and this trio of weapons.
Now the Chargers go up against a Tennessee Titans defense that is one of the most banged up in the NFL right now. They just allowed 36 points and 428 total yards to the Jaguars last week after giving up 35 points and 453 total yards to the Eagles the previous week. I just don't know how the Titans are going to get any stops in this game.
On the other side of the football, the Titans are also one of the worst units in the league. They rank 26th in scoring offense at 18.5 points per game, 29th in total offense at 296.9 yards per game and 22nd at 5.2 yards per play. The Titans are the most fraudulent team with a winning record in the NFL if it's not the Giants. They are getting outgained by 68.1 yards per game on the season. But that winning 7-6 record has them overvalued in recent weeks, including this week as only 2.5-point road dogs to the Chargers.
Los Angeles has a chance of getting several key players back on defense this week, while Tennessee remains banged up everywhere, including at receiver, along the offensive line and at all three levels on defense. Mike Vraebel has done a tremendous job of getting everything he could out of this team the last couple seasons, but they are finally starting to break due to all these injuries. The Titans still have a two-game lead in the AFC South so they can afford a loss, while the Chargers can only make the playoffs through the wild card. So they will be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency this week as well.
The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The Chargers are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Titans. Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Los Angeles. Los Angeles is 33-8 ATS in its last 41 games vs. AFC South opponents. The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after two straight games attempting 40 or more passes. Roll with the Chargers Sunday.
|12-18-22||Bengals -3.5 v. Bucs||Top||34-23||Win||100||137 h 39 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Bucs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cincinnati -3.5
The Cincinnati Bengals are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The books haven't been able to catch up to how good this team really is. Joe Burrow is legitimately a Top 5 quarterback in this league if not the best, and he has some of the best weapons in the NFL. Plus, the Bengals have one of the most underrated defenses in the league as well.
Cincinnati ranks 7th in scoring offense at 25.8 points per game, 5th in total offense at 371.7 yards per game and 10th at 5.7 yards per play. The Bengals rank 11th in scoring defense at 20.4 points per game, 14th in total defense at 331.1 yards per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play.
Tampa Bay has a good defense, but they just gave up 35 points to San Francisco and third-string QB Brock Purdy last week. They are a tired defense missing several key players who were playing on a short week after needing a 13-point comeback in the final few minutes of the 4th quarter to beat the Saints on Monday Night Football. They wore down against the 49ers, and now after traveling clear out West they have to travel back home this week and face a Bengals offense that will test them at ever level.
But this is a fade of Tampa Bays' offense more than anything. The Bucs rank 28th in scoring offense at 17.2 points per game and 26th at 5.0 yards per play. Tom Brady has no time to throw because of a depleted offensive line that has been terrible all season. The Bucs cannot run the ball to take pressure off Brady as they rank dead last (32nd) in rushing at 72.9 yards per game and 32nd at 3.3 yards per carry.
While the Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, the Bucs are just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The books have been undervaluing the Bengals all season and overvaluing the Bucs, and that's the case again this week with Cincinnati as just a short road favorite. The Bengals will remain motivated as they are tied with the Ravens for 1st place in the AFC North and only one game back of the Bills and Chiefs for the No. 1 seed. The Bucs can lose this game and still control their own destiny in the putrid NFC South, so winning this game isn't as important for them as it is for the Bengals. Take the Bengals Sunday.
|12-18-22||Magic +10.5 v. Celtics||Top||95-92||Win||100||6 h 4 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +10.5
The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with five upset victories outright. They only lost by 7 to the Bucks as 10-point dogs, beat the Clippers outright as 6.5-point dogs, beat the Raptors by 4 and 12 outright as 8 and 7-point dogs, beat the Hawks by 11 outright as 3-point dogs and beat the Celtics outright as 13.5-point dogs.
Yes, the Celtics will now be out for revenge today, but they shouldn't be 10.5-point favorites over the Magic. They can get their revenge and still not cover this inflated number. Plus, Jayson Tatum scored 31 points in that first meeting on Friday and they still lost by 8. Well, now the Celtics won't have Tatum today as he'll be out for personal reasons. There's no way the Celtics should be double-digit favorites over the Magic without Tatum and with how well the Magic are playing right now.
The Celtics are overvalued due to having the best record in the NBA and it has shown of late as they are 1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They lost by 16 at Golden State, by 20 at the Clippers and by 8 at home to the Magic. Their lone win was a miracle as they erased a 13-point deficit in the final four minutes to beat the Lakers by 4 in OT. Bet the Magic Sunday.
|12-18-22||Magic v. Celtics UNDER 223.5||95-92||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Celtics UNDER 223.5
I love this spot for an UNDER bet. The Magic and Celtics will be playing for the 2nd game in 3 days. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and I think we get a defensive struggle here Sunday with this sleepy start time with a 3:10 EST tip this afternoon.
The Magic beat the Celtics 117-109 for 226 combined points on Friday. That was even with Jayson Tatum scoring 31 points for the Celtics. Well, Tatum won't play today due to personal reasons, and the Celtics will have a hard time scoring without him. Plus, two key defenders in Robert Williams and Al Horford just returned for the Celtics, so they will rely on defense in this one.
Orlando is a very good defensive team with a ton of length. The Magic have allowed 111 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall. Holding the Celtics with Tatum to 109 points is no small feat, and I don't see Boston getting more than 109 in the rematch, either. I expect Boston to defend Orlando much better than they did in that first meeting, too. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|12-18-22||Steelers v. Panthers -2||24-16||Loss||-110||133 h 14 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Carolina Panthers -2
Both the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 5-8 this season. But since the Carolina Panthers play in the weak NFC South, they are just one game out of first place with a lot to play for the rest of the way. In fact, they control their own destiny to win the division because they already beat the Bucs and play them again.
The Steelers just had their playoff hopes crushed last week with a devastating 14-16 home loss to the Baltimore Ravens and backup QB's Huntley and Brown. They lost Kenny Pickett to a concussion early in that game, and Mitch Trubisky came in and moved the ball down the field, but threw three interceptions in the red zone that cost them the game. I don't think there's much difference between Trubisky or Pickett, so I'm not concerned who starts this week. I think the spot is terrible for the Steelers as that loss to the hated Ravens is the type of loss that can beat a team twice.
I like the way the Panthers are trending and the fact that they have a lot more to play for this week. These players love Steve Wilks and are playing hard for him. They have gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with three outright wins as underdogs. They are 3-0 at home during this stretch with three blowout wins over the Bucs by 18, the Falcons by 10 and the Broncos by 13.
The Panthers should still be fresh this week because they had a bye two weeks ago prior to going into Seattle and winning 30-24 last week. The offense has gotten a spark as Sam Darnold is 2-0 as a starter and leading the Panthers to 26.5 points per game in the two wins. And this is one of the better defenses in the league as the Panthers rank 13th in scoring defense at 22.3 points per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play allowed. Pittsburgh allows 5.7 yards per play for comparison.
The Steelers have been gashed on the ground in two consecutive games giving up 146 rushing yards to the Falcons and 215 rushing yards to the Ravens. That's bad news for them going up against this Carolina rushing attack that has produced 169 or more rushing yards in five of its last seven games overall. I think the Panthers can control this game by moving the ball on the ground, and Sam Darnold just needs to keep managing the game and making timely play-action completions as he has in his first two starts. Pittsburgh is scoring just 15.6 points per game on the road this season.
The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a loss by 6 points or fewer. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|12-18-22||Eagles v. Bears OVER 48.5||25-20||Loss||-110||133 h 12 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Bears OVER 48.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are humming on offense right now scoring 41.0 points per game in their last three games overall. They are now the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL. They can name their number against what is the worst defense in the NFL currently in the Chicago Bears.
The Bears have allowed 27 or more points in six consecutive games and an average of 33.5 points per game during this stretch. But this Chicago offense has really taken off with Justin Fields. In the last six games started by Fields, the Bears are averaging 27.8 points per game. He is clearly recovered from his shoulder injury after leading the Bears to 409 total yards against the Packers in his return from injury prior to the bye last week.
I expect the Eagles to get out to a lead in this game and to continue to score at will similarly to what they did against the Giants last week when they kept pouring it on with 48 points. And Fields and the Bears will be forced to go hurry up to try and keep up with the Eagles. The one weakness of the Eagles is their running defense as they have allowed 99 or more rushing yards in eight of their last nine games. They rank 24th allowing 4.7 yards per carry. The strength of the Bears is their rushing offense that ranks 1st in the NFL at 189.2 rushing yards per game.
The forecast looks good for a shootout for this time of year in Chicago with 12 MPH winds and 0% chance of precipitation. The OVER is 7-1 in Eagles last eight games overall. The OVER is 7-0 in Eagles last seven games following a win. The OVER is 39-16 in Eagles last 55 December games. The OVER is 7-0 in Bears last seven games overall. The OVER is 10-1 in Bears last 11 games following an ATS loss. These are both dead nuts OVER teams right now. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-18-22||Cowboys v. Jaguars OVER 47.5||Top||34-40||Win||100||133 h 7 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cowboys/Jaguars OVER 47.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They combined for 55 points with the Ravens, 54 with the Lions and 58 with the Titans in their last three games. It should be more of the same against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday with the forecast perfect for a shootout in Jacksonville with temps in the 50's and less than 10 MPH winds.
Trevor Lawrence is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the league this season under the guidance of Doug Pederson. He is completing 66.2% of his passes with a 20-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 218 yards and four scores. Travis Etienne is averaging 5.0 YPC, and Lawrence is loaded with weapons in Kirk, Jones, Engram and Jones Jr. on the outside.
The Dallas Cowboys are humming on offense right now as well. They have scored 28 or more points in six consecutive games and are averaging 37.7 points per game in their last six games. They will get their points against a Jacksonville defense that has really slipped in allowing at least 20 points in eight consecutive games and an average of 26.8 points per game during this stretch. Dallas has allowed at least 19 points in five of its last six games despite a very weak schedule of opposing offenses.
The OVER is 5-1 in Cowboys last six games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Cowboys last six games following a win. The OVER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four December games. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings. The OVER is 7-0 in Jaguars last seven games off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog. These last four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-18-22||Lions v. Jets OVER 44||20-17||Loss||-110||85 h 26 m||Show|
15* Lions/Jets Non-Conference ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44
The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team. They have combined for 49 or more points in five consecutive games and two of those games were played outdoors at New York and at Chicago. They have averaged 32.2 points per game in their last five games and 54.8 combined points per game in their last five as well, so this is a very low total of 44 for a game involving the Lions.
The New York Jets have come to life on offense with Mike White at quarterback. They put up 31 points and 466 total yards against the Bears in White's first start. They put up 486 total yards in the Vikings in his second start. And last week they had 309 total yards against a very good Bills defense in terrible weather in Buffalo with heavy winds.
Well, the weather is expected to be very good for a game in New York in December. Forecasts are calling for 38 degrees, only 10 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation. That's pretty great weather outdoors for a shootout for this time of year.
The Jets could set a couple offensive linemen back this week and Cory Davis is questionable. They may be without some key players on defense, most notably DL Quinnen Williams who is questionable with a calf injury. And while the Lions are playing better defensively of late, they still rank 31st in scoring defense at 26.7 points per game, 31st in total defense at 403.2 yards per game and 32nd at 6.2 yards per play.
The OVER is 9-1 in Lions last 10 road games following four or more consecutive ATS wins. The OVER is 8-1 in Lions last nine games following an ATS win. The OVER is 9-2 in Jets last 11 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game. The OVER is 6-1 in Jets last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-18-22||Western Michigan v. Iowa State UNDER 130||57-73||Push||0||2 h 5 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Western Michigan/Iowa State UNDER 130
The Iowa State Cyclones are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank 257th in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted defense this season. They are holding opponents to just 56.9 points per game and 38.5% shooting, holding them to 17.9 points per game less than their season averages. They are only scoring 70.7 points per game, too.
Western Michigan plays at an even slower pace than Iowa State, ranking 260th in adjusted tempo. They are a terrible offensive team ranking 281st in adjusted offense. They are averaging 3.5 points per game less than their opponents allow on the season.
The UNDER is 14-2 in Iowa State's last 16 games overall, including 9-1 this season. The UNDER is 9-0 in Cyclones last nine games following an ATS win. The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Cyclones last 21 Sunday games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Broncos last four games overall. This is early 1:00 EST start time which will have both teams half asleep as well, which favors the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|12-17-22||Tennessee v. Arizona -3.5||Top||70-75||Win||100||17 h 10 m||Show|
20* Tennessee/Arizona ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -3.5
The Arizona Wildcats are 9-1 this season with wins over Cincinnati, San Diego State, Creighton and Indiana all on neutrals. Their lone loss came on the road. The Wildcats are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 27.4 points per game.
Now they host a Tennessee team that is also 9-1 but hasn't played a true road game yet. I always like fading teams when they play their first true road game. It will be a tremendous atmosphere and home-court advantage tonight for the Wildcats with a rowdy crowd with this 10:30 EST tip. It will easily be the toughest atmosphere the Vols will have played in this season.
Plays on home teams (Arizona) - after covering as a double-digit favorite, in a game involving two teams that win more than 80% of their games on the season are 48-24 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. G James (8.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and F Aidoo (4.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG) are both questionable to play for the Vols tonight as well. Roll with Arizona Saturday.
|12-17-22||SE Missouri State +24 v. Iowa||75-106||Loss||-110||15 h 10 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +24
This is a terrible spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes. They have played their last three games against Duke, Iowa State and Wisconsin. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat SE Missouri State as they were those three teams, and they will need to be motivated to cover this big of a number Saturday.
Making matters worse for the Hawkeyes is that they will be without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) and could be without Ahron Ulis (6.4 PPG), who is questionable. They just want to get in and get out with a win here Saturday and won't be concerned with getting margin.
We've seen SE Missouri State hang tough against some very good teams this season. They only lost by 7 at Missouri as 21.5-point dogs a few games back. They upset South Florida outright as 11-point road dogs, upset Evansville outright as 2-point road dogs and only lost by 13 at Bradley. They have done their best work in true road games.
The Redhawks are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The Redhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet SE Missouri State Saturday.
|12-17-22||Grizzlies -6.5 v. Thunder||Top||109-115||Loss||-110||17 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5
Nobody is playing better than the Memphis Grizzlies right now. They are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven wins coming by 8 points or more. That includes a 41-point win over Milwaukee, a 25-point win over Atlanta and a 21-point win over Oklahoma City, which is tonight's opponent.
The spot really favors the Grizzlies as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and are fully healthy with the exception of Desmond Bane, who has been out for a few weeks now and they haven't really missed him due to all their depth. This is a terrible spot for the Thunder playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days.
The Thunder come in on a four-game losing streak and are dealing with a ton of injuries right now. Robinson-Earl (8.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG) remains out, and Bazley (5.9 PPG) and Dort (13.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG) are both questionable. The Thunder lost 110-112 to the short-handed Timberwolves last night who were playing without Towns, Russell and Gobert.
That game went down to the wire so their starters played big minutes, meaning they will be even more fatigued than normal in this 2nd of a back-to-back. Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when playing in zero rest. Memphis is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.
|12-17-22||Blazers v. Rockets OVER 227||Top||107-95||Loss||-115||17 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Rockets OVER 227
Damian Lillard is back healthy now to go with Simons and Grant and the Blazers have been a dead nuts OVER team since his return. They are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with combined scores of 241, 242, 245, 240 and 240 points. They have scored at least 116 points in six of their last seven games overall.
The Blazers lost in a 110-130 blowout to the Mavericks last night and have now allowed at least 111 points in 13 of their last 14 games overall. But the blowout loss allowed their starters to rest as Lillard played 24 minutes, Simons 23, Grant 20, Hart 21 and Nurkic 21. They will still be fresh and able to get up and down with the Rockets, who like to push the pace.
The Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team. They like to run and rank 27th in defensive efficiency. And when these teams get together a shootout usually ensues. The Blazers and Rockets have combined for at least 231 points in three of their last four meetings.
Portland is a perfect 7-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and we're seeing 235.8 combined points per game in this spot. Portland beat Houston 125-111 as a 4-point favorite for 236 combined points in their first meeting this season. The OVER is 19-7 in Rockets last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-17-22||Jazz v. Bucks -5||Top||97-123||Win||100||17 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -5
I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. They are coming off their worst loss of the season at Memphis on Thursday. They were coming off a 128-111 home win over the Warriors and I think they simply had a letdown after beating the defending champs.
But now the Bucks are back home where they are 13-3 SU & 11-5 ATS this season outscoring opponents by 9.0 points per game. And they are expected to get star PG Jrue Holiday (19.1 PPG, 7.4 APG, 5.3 RPG) back from illness after sitting out the last two games.
The Utah Jazz are just 1-6 SU in their last seven road games with five losses by 5 points or more. They are getting too much respect after two consecutive home wins over the Pelicans. But now they are back on the road here and should be much more than 5-point road underdogs to the Bucks.
It's time to 'buy low' on Milwaukee off a blowout loss and 'sell high' on Utah after two consecutive upset home wins. The Bucks will come back motivated and will have 100% focus for this one, which isn't good news for the Jazz. Roll with the Bucks Saturday.
|12-17-22||Rice v. Southern Miss -6||Top||24-38||Win||100||88 h 25 m||Show|
20* Rice/Southern Miss LendingTree Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Southern Miss -6
Southern Miss head coach Will Hall was confident that the Golden Eagles would get to a bowl game coming into the season. Well, he was right, and the Golden Eagles earned it by having to win their final game of the season to get to 6-6. They will be highly motivated to win this bowl game because they want to be here after working so hard down the stretch to get here.
Keep in mind Southern Miss opened 5-3 SU before losing three straight, including gut-wrenching losses at Coastal Carolina by 3 and to South Alabama by 7, two of the top three teams in the Sun Belt. That made their double-digit win at LA-Monroe even more impressive, and they dominated that game outgaining the Warhawks by 217 yards.
This Southern Miss offense has been better since QB Trey Lowe took over. He started the final three games and they went 3-0 ATS with him under center. Frank Gore Jr. is a warrior at RB and rushed for 1,053 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.1 per carry this season. But it's the Southern Miss defense that is the best unit on the field. They allow just 23.5 points per game this season.
Rice (5-7) is only in this bowl game because of their GPA. They went 1-4 in their final five games including blowout losses to Charlotte by 33, Western Kentucky by 35 and UTSA by 34. They are down their top two quarterbacks in T.J. McMahon and Wiley Green, leaving true freshman 3rd-string QB AJ Padgett to start this bowl game. Padgett is just 20-of-40 (50%) passing this season and isn't the dual-threat that McMahon was, rushing 20 times for 20 yards.
This Rice defense has been horrendous this season. The Owls allow 33.8 points per game and 6.4 yards per play. It has been really bad down the stretch as they have allowed 41 or more points in four of their last six games overall. They are decimated by injuries at cornerback, and they haven't been able to stop the run all season. They allow 173 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.
This will be a short trip for Southern Miss fans to Mobile, Alabama for the LendingTree Bowl. It's only an hour and 45 minutes from Hattiesburg to Mobile. It will be Hall's first bowl game as their head coach. The Golden Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take Southern Miss Saturday.
|12-17-22||Ravens v. Browns -3||Top||3-13||Win||100||113 h 45 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Browns AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland -3
The Cleveland Browns have been on the road four of the last five weeks. In their lone home game, they beat the Tampa Bay Bucs in overtime. Now Deshaun Watson will be playing his first home game for the Browns after playing the last two on the road. This will be a much more comforting atmosphere for Watson, and I expect his best game as a Brown yet.
But this play is as much of a fade of the Ravens as it is a play on the Browns. They were very lucky to beat the Steelers 16-14 last week as the Steelers lost Kenny Pickett early, and Mitch Trubisky threw three interceptions in the red zone. The Ravens pulled off a minor miracle to win that game after only beating the Broncos 10-9 at home the previous week. Their luck runs out this week.
The Ravens will still be without Lamar Jackson, and quality backup Tyler Huntley suffered a concussion against the Steelers and is highly questionable to play this week, especially since it's a short week with this game being played on Saturday. Third stringer Anthony Brown is a big downgrade from Huntley, and this line will be much more than Cleveland -3 if Brown starts.
The numbers actually show the Browns are the better team, and that's even with Jackson up to this point. The Browns rank 6th in total offense at 368.8 yards per game while the Ravens are 14th at 347.0 yards per game. The Ravens are 12th in total defense at 330.4 yards per game while the Browns are 17th at 343.8 yards per game. So the Ravens are only outgaining opponents by 16.6 yards per game while the Browns are outgaining foes by 25 yards per game.
Plays against any team (Baltimore) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, when playing on Saturday are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS since 1983. Plays on favorites (Cleveland) - after covering the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 49-20 (71%) ATS since 1983. Cleveland is favored for good reason this week, and it should be an even bigger favorite. Bet the Browns Saturday.
|12-17-22||Fresno State -3 v. Washington State||Top||29-6||Win||100||98 h 22 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Fresno State -3
The Fresno State Bulldogs have won eight consecutive games heading into the LA Bowl. The last six of those have come since Jake Haener returned from injury at quarterback. This Fresno State offense has been humming with Haener averaging 37.2 points per game in their last six games. He has decided to play in the bowl despite the fact that he's going to get drafted.
This team wants to win this game for Haener in his final game at Fresno State. The defense has really stepped their game up as well allowing just 15.0 points per game during their eight-game winning streak. The Bulldogs will also be motivated to get to play a Power 5 team from the Pac-12.
Few teams have been hit harder by injuries and opt-outs heading into bowl season than Washington State. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward left for Arizona State and offensive coordinator Eric Morris left for North Texas. Three of the top four receivers are out and each of their top three linebackers are out, including first-team All-Pac-12 LB Daiyan Henley. The three receivers that are out combined for 123 receptions, 1434 yards and 11 touchdowns.
The Cougars will have their hands full trying to score without all of their top playmakers. They will also have their hands full defensively trying to stop Haener and company. This Washington State defense just gave up 51 points and 705 total yards to Washington in the season finale. That includes 485 passing yards. Well, Washington runs the same system as Fresno State because head coach Kevin Deboer left Fresno for Washington in the offseason. The Cougars couldn't stop the Huskies, and they won't be able to stop the Bulldogs, either.
This game will be played in Los Angeles, which is only a 3-hour, 30-minute drive from Fresno. Most of these kids playing for Fresno are from the LA area, so they will have a huge home-field advantage in this one at SoFi Stadium. Bet Fresno State Saturday.
|12-17-22||Toledo v. Marshall -3||85-100||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -3
Marshall won nine consecutive games before finally losing 67-75 at UNC-Greensboro last time out. I think they'll be refocused with Toledo coming to town this weekend. Marshall is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 17.7 points per game.
Toledo has some really bad losses this season and they cannot be trusted. They lost by 7 at George Mason, by 11 to ECU and by 12 to Missouri-KC. They also just beat Canisius by 1 as 17-point home favorites last time out. Toledo ranks just 228th in adjusted defense while Marshall ranks 98th.
Marshall is 6-0 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season. The Thundering Herd are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game. Roll with Marshall Saturday.
|12-17-22||Cornell +9.5 v. Syracuse||63-78||Loss||-110||10 h 40 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Cornell +9.5
Cornell has been very impressive this season at 7-2 with their two losses coming by 2 at Boston College as 9.5-point dogs and by 2 at Miami as 14.5-point dogs. They are once again catching too many points today against another ACC team in Syracuse today.
Syracuse has upset losses to Bryant and Colgate at home already this season and also lost to St. John's by 7 and Illinois by 29. These teams have a common opponent in Monmouth, too. Cornell won by 18 points on the road at Monmouth, while Syracuse only beat Monmouth by 15 at home.
Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games following a home win. Cornell is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games a an underdog. The Big Red are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Orange are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Cornell Saturday.
|12-17-22||Sam Houston State -3.5 v. Texas State||69-62||Win||100||10 h 40 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Sam Houston State -3.5
Sam Houston State is 8-2 this season with its only losses coming to Nevada and Oklahoma State on the road. They also beat Utah on the road by 10 and Oklahoma on the road, and those wins look really good right now especially after Utah handed Arizona their only loss this season.
Texas State is just 6-5 this season with some very ugly losses. The most alarming was last time out when they lost 65-71 at home to Mary Hardin Baylor. They also lost to Hawaii, Rice, UTSA and Washington State all by 5 points or more.
Sam Houston State has played the 31st-toughest schedule in the country while Texas State has played the 253rd-ranked schedule. Texas State is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game. Sam Houston ranks 34th in adjusted defense while Texas State ranks 203rd. Take Sam Houston State Saturday.
|12-17-22||Houston -2 v. Virginia||Top||69-61||Win||100||9 h 41 m||Show|
20* Houston/Virginia ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Houston -2
The Houston Cougars are legitimately one of the top teams in the country this season. They are 10-1 with their only loss coming to Alabama after blowing a double-digit lead. They rank 29th in adjusted offense and 2nd in adjusted defense.
Virginia is getting too much respect from the books right now after an 8-0 start. But the Cavaliers have been squeaking by of late beating Michigan by 2 as 4.5-point favorites, Florida State by 5 as 18-point favorites and James Madison by 5 as 12.5-point favorites in their last three games coming in.
Virginia's luck runs out today against the best team they have faced yet in Houston. I think the Cavaliers will be rusty because they haven't played since December 6th with 10 days off in between games. Virginia will be without Reece Beekman (27 MPG, 10.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) for the first time this season after he was injured against James Madison.
Houston crushed Virginia 67-47 at home last season. Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following four or more consecutive wins. Houston is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a SU home win where they failed to cover. The Cougars are a ridiculous 42-12-1 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS loss. The Cavaliers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Take Houston Saturday.
|12-17-22||Indiana v. Kansas -5||Top||62-84||Win||100||7 h 41 m||Show|
20* Indiana/Kansas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kansas -5
The Kansas Jayhawks are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall two of the most impressive performances of any team this season. They beat Seton Hall 91-65 as 10-point home favorites and beat Missouri 95-67 as only 3.5-point road favorites.
Now the Jayhawks are only 5-point home favorites over the Indiana Hoosiers in one of the best venues for college basketball at home. Indiana lost by 14 to Arizona on a neutral and by 15 at Rutgers in two of their last three games, which doesn't bode well for them being able to hang with the Jayhawks today.
Kansas has played the 39th-toughest schedule in the country while Indiana has played the 170th. Kansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games after winning three of its last four games. Plays against road teams (Indiana) - after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game against an opponent that is coming off three straight wins by 15 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Kansas Saturday.
|12-16-22||Blazers v. Mavs OVER 222.5||110-130||Win||100||20 h 52 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Blazers/Mavericks OVER 222.5
Damian Lillard is back healthy now to go with Simons and Grant and the Blazers have been a dead nuts OVER team since his return. They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with combined scores of 241, 242, 245 and 240 points. They have scored at least 116 points in six consecutive games as well.
The Dallas Mavericks have been playing in a lot more high scoring games of late with Christian Wood in the lineup. They have combined for 221 or more points in eight of their last 10 games overall and 229 or more points in seven of those.
The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between the Mavericks and Blazers with 224 or more combined points in 11 of those 12 meetings. That makes for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 222.5-point total. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-16-22||Knicks v. Bulls UNDER 228.5||114-91||Win||100||19 h 22 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bulls UNDER 228.5
I love this spot for an UNDER bet. The Knicks and Bulls just played on Wednesday with the Knicks winning 128-120 (OT) in a game that was tied 117-117 at the end of regulation. The total was 226.5 for that game, and the books have made the mistake of adjusting it up to 228.5 for the rematch here two days later.
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Both teams shot lights out in that first meeting and it won't happen again. The Bulls shot 54.8% from the field, while the Knicks shot 49.5% from the field including a ridiculous 18-of-34 (52.9%) from 3-point range. The Knicks are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league at 32.6% for the season, so it was clearly an aberration.
The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven games overall. The UNDER is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 road games. The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Bulls last seven games following a loss. The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Bulls last 29 games following an ATS loss. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-16-22||Magic +13.5 v. Celtics||Top||117-109||Win||100||19 h 53 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +13.5
The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with four upset victories outright. They only lost by 7 to the Bucks as 10-point dogs, beat the Clippers outright as 6.5-point dogs, beat the Raptors by 4 and 12 outright as 8 and 7-point dogs, and beat the Hawks by 11 outright as 3-point dogs.
This is a good spot for the Magic playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. This is a terrible spot for the Celtics returning home from a six-game road trip that concluded in Los Angeles. I always like fading teams in their first game back home following a long road trip because there are so many distractions they have to deal with. The Celtics haven't been home since December 2nd.
The Magic are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on two days' rest. Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (Boston) - after failing to cover two of their last three ATS, when playing on two days' rest are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Magic Friday.
|12-16-22||Pacers v. Cavs OVER 222.5||Top||112-118||Win||100||19 h 52 m||Show|
20* Pacers/Cavs NBA Friday No-Brainer on OVER 222.5
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency. They have combined for 232 or more points in four of their last five games overall, including 269 with the Nets and 244 with the Warriors.
The Cleveland Cavaliers just got Donovan Mitchell back from injury. They also got Kevin Love back. They are a very good offensive team as long as Mitchell is on the floor. They will have no problem getting up and down with the Pacers tonight in a shootout.
The last two meetings between the Pacers and Cavaliers went way OVER the total. They combined for 251 points with a 222.5-point total and 233 points with a 216-point total. The OVER is 6-1 in Pacers last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.