20* Cardinals/Cubs NL Central No-Brainer on Chicago -110

The Chicago Cubs have been struggling to close out games over the last month.  But now they have nine straight winnable home games coming up against the Cardinals, Giants and Mets to get back on track.  It starts with Game 1 today against the Cardinals in what should be a raucous atmosphere at Wrigley for a Friday afternoon game.

Jordan Wicks has allowed 2 earned runs in each of his last two starts.  He is 1-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in two home starts this season.  He'll be facing a Cardinals team that is hitting .234 and scoring just 3.9 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.

The Cubs should feast on Kyle Gibson, who is 4-2 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 13 starts this season while allowing 10 homers.  Gibson has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-4 with a 6.64 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He has allowed 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 20 1/3 innings.

St. Louis is 0-13 in its last 13 road games following 7 or more consecutive home games.  Bet the Cubs Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Rangers/Dodgers OVER 8

The Los Angeles Dodgers are scoring 5.2 runs per game at home this season while the Texas Rangers are scoring 4.7 runs per game on the road.  This total is 8 is too low tonight for these two lineups up against these two starting pitchers.

The Rangers are also a live underdog because they should tee off on Michael Grove, who will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Dodgers.  Grove allowed 3 earned runs in 2 innings to the Blue Jays in his first start this season, and the Dodgers will make this a bullpen game after him.

Michael Lorenzen is due some regression for the Rangers.  He is 3-3 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 10 starts.  But he pitches to contact with only 44 K's in 59 innings with 28 walks.  He has been very fortunate not to allow more runs this season with all the runners he is putting on base.  The Dodgers won't let him off the hook tonight.

The Dodgers are 36-18 OVER in their last 54 interleague games.  Los Angeles is 90-61 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last two seasons.  The Dodgers are scoring 7.3 runs per game in their last seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Angels/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The OVER is 10-2 in Diamondbacks last 12 games overall with 9 or more combined runs 10 times and 11 or more combined runs nine times.  That includes 12, 14, 13, 13 and 11 combined runs in their last five games coming in.  The Angels have combined for 16, 13 and 11 runs in their last three games.

Brandon Pffadt is 2-5 with a 4.60 ERA in 13 starts this season while allowing 10 homers.  He is 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 13 earned runs and 4 homers in 18 1/3 innings.

Griffin Canning is 2-6 with a 4.65 ERA in 13 starts this season while allowing 11 homers.  Canning is 0-5 with a 5.06 ERA in six road starts while allowing 18 earned runs and 6 homers in 32 innings.  Canning allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start against Arizona last season.

Arizona is 17-7 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.  The Angels are 74-52 OVER in their last 126 games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +107

The Philadelphia Phillies are overvalued right now due to their tremendous start to the season.  But they are without two of their best hitters in Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto and will be good fade material in the immediate future.  They should not be favored over the Boston Red Sox tonight.

Tanner Houck is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 6-5 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 13 starts this season with 84 K's in 85 innings and only 2 homers allowed.  Keeping the ball in the park will be big today with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center.

Aaron Nola has been solid for the Phillies but he has allowed 11 homers in 84 1/3 innings with his biggest weakness being giving up the long ball.  That's bad news for him and the Phillies given the forecast, which will have the ball flying out tonight.  The Red Sox are scoring 4.9 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.  Bet the Red Sox Thursday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Pirates -105

The Paul Skenes and Jared Jones getting all the hype for the Pirates, Mitch Keller has quietly been one of the best starters in baseball over the last month.  The Pirates have a big advantage on the mound over the St. Louis Cardinals today and getting them at basically even money is tremendous value.

Keller is 6-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his last six starts while allowing just 5 earned runs and one homer in 39 2/3 innings.  Keller is 2-1 with a 3.29 ERA in 10 career starts against the Cardinals as well.

Lance Lynn is 2-3 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in six home starts.  Lynn is 7-9 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 23 career starts against Pittsburgh.  He has allowed a whopping 13 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Pirates.  Bet the Pirates Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Royals OVER 10.5

Temps have been up with winds blowing out in this series between Kansas City and New York.  It will be more of the same today with temps in the 90's and roughly 13 MPH winds blowing out to center at Kauffman Stadium this afternoon.  These teams combined for 11 runs two days ago and 16 runs yesterday.

Nestor Cortes is 0-3 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in seven road starts this season while allowing 24 earned runs and 8 homers in 35 innings.  Alec Marsh is 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in six home starts this season.  Marsh is 1-2 with a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 innings.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 1/3 innings in his lone career start against the Yankees last season.

The OVER is 24-7 in Royals last 31 home games after a game where the bullpen threw 8 or more innings.  The OVER is 16-6 in Royals last 22 games overall with 11 or more combined runs in 14 of those 22 games.  The OVER is 10-3 in Yankees last 13 games overall with 11 or more combined runs in seven of those 13 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Angels/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The OVER is 9-2 in Diamondbacks last 11 games overall with 9 or more combined runs nine times and 12 or more combined runs eight times.  That includes 12, 14, 13 and 13 combined runs in their last four games coming in.  The Angels have combined for 16 and 13 runs in their last two games.

Slade Cecconi is 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA in seven starts this season while allowing 20 earned runs and 7 homers in 36 1/3 innings.  Cecconi is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in two home starts, allowing 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings.

Jose Soriano is 3-4 with a 3.55 ERA in 11 starts for the Angels this season.  Soriano is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 9 earned runs in 18 innings.  The Angels are 7-0 OVER vs. a starting pitcher that allows one or more homers per start this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Mavs ABC No-Brainer on Dallas ML -121

After dropping the first two games of this series in Boston, this is a must-win game for the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3 if they want to get back in this series.  I think they will play much better when they return home for Game 3 tonight, while the Celtics may relax a little with a commanding 2-0 lead.

Luka Doncic showed up in Boston but hasn't gotten any help.  All players for the Mavericks other than Doncic are 5-of-32 (15.6%) combined from 3-point range in this series.  Role players always play much better at home in the friendly confines, and I expect that to be the case for the Mavericks in Game 3.

Kyrie Irving was basically a no-show in the first two games in Boston.  He will have his best game of the series by far in Game 3 where he will be much more comfortable.  It has been hostile for Irving in Boston since stomping on the logo and he hasn't handled it well.  But he will handle playing in front of supporting fans much better in Dallas.

Kristaps Porzingis looked to reaggravate his calf injury in Game 2 and was noticeably limping.  Not having him at 100% the rest of the way would be a big blow to the Celtics as he has been a weapon the Mavericks haven't had an answer for.  I also don't expect Boston to get so many easy looks at the rim like they have in the first two games.  This Dallas defense has been the reason they have made it this far, and it will show up in a big way in Game 3.  Bet the Mavericks on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates +165

The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of the most underrated teams in baseball right now with a great rotation.  While Skenes, Jones and Keller have been getting all the hype lately, Bailey Falter is quietly putting together a great season.

Falter is 3-3 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 12 starts for the Pirates this season.  Sonny Gray is getting too much respect for the Cardinals tonight.  He is 3-3 with a 5.46 ERA in his last six starts while allowing 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 31 1/3 innings.  Gray has allowed 8 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are 20-17 (+8.6 Units) as underdogs this season.  Falter's teams are a perfect 9-0 in his last nine starts vs. NL teams that score 4.0 or fewer runs per game.  Bet the Pirates Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +106

The Chicago Cubs blew a 2-1 lead in the 9th inning to lose to the Rays last night.  They will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 2.  They should not be underdogs to the Rays given their big advantage on the mound and at the plate.

Aaron Civale is 2-5 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 13 starts this season while allowing 13 homers in 67 innings.  He has allowed 9 homers in 37 1/3 innings at home. Javier Assad is 4-2 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 13 starts for the Cubs this season while allowing just 7 homers in 69 innings with 68 K's.

The Cubs are 12-5 (+12.3 Units) in Assad's last 17 starts as an underdog.  The Rays are 4-9 (-7.8 Units) in Civale's 13 starts this season.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cubs/Rays OVER 7.5

Two struggling starting pitchers square off tonight in what should be a slug fest between the Cubs and Rays and a very low total of 7.5 runs.  Both of these starters are getting too much respect from the books.

Aaron Civale is 2-5 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 13 starts this season while allowing 13 homers in 67 innings.  He has allowed 9 homers in 37 1/3 innings at home.  He'll be opposed by Javier Assad, who has come back down to reality in recent starts.  Assad is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 16 innings.

The OVER is 9-1 in Civale's last 10 home starts with a money line of +100 to -150.  The OVER is 24-9 in Civale's 33 career home starts with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The Cubs are 16-4 OVER in their last 20 road games vs. AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer tuns per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Angels/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The OVER is 8-2 in Diamondbacks last 10 games overall with 9 or more combined runs eight times and 12 or more combined runs seven times.  That includes 12, 14 and 13 combined runs in their last three games coming in.  The Angels just combined for 16 runs with the Astros last game.

Jordan Montgomery is 3-4 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 1-2 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in six home starts.  Montgomery is 0-2 with an 18.00 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 12 earned runs and 22 base runners in 6 innings.

Lefty Jose Suarez will be making his first start of the season for the Angels.  Suarez is 1-0 with a 6.54 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 31 2/3 innings in relief this season.  He is 20-27 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 356 innings in the big leagues.  The Diamondbacks are scoring 5.6 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals +126

The Kansas City Royals are 24-12 at home this season where they are scoring 5.6 runs per game.  They should not be home underdogs to the New York Yankees tonight.

Brady Singer is 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in seven home starts.  Singer has held the Yankees to 2 earned runs in 13 innings with 19 K's in his last two starts agianst them.

Marcus Stroman is due some regression while pitching to contact this season with only 57 K's in 74 innings.  He has 19 K's in 34 2/3 innings on the road.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 2/3 innings to the Twins in his last start.

The Royals are 26-12 (+16.6 Units) in Singer's last 38 home starts.  Kansas City is 14-2 in home games against teams that average 0.5 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Pirates -126

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a big advantage on the mound over the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.  They are also raking of late going 6-4 in their last 10 games overall while scoring 7 runs or more four times.

Rookie Paul Skenes has managed to exceed the massive hype that comes with being baseball's top prospect.  He is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in five starts with 38 K's in 27 innings.

The Pirates should stay hot at the plate against Miles Mikolas, who is 4-6 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in five home starts.  Mikolas has allowed 8 earned runs and 29 base runners in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Pirates.  Bet the Pirates Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +182

The Minnesota Twins should not be -200 favorites with Louis Varland on the mound.  Varland is 0-4 with a 9.18 ERA and 2.16 WHIP in four starts in the majors this season, allowing 17 earned runs, 6 homers and 36 base runners in 16 2/3 innings.  He hasn't been much better at Triple-A in the minors, going 2-5 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in eight starts.

Cal Quantrill has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball for the Rockies this season.  He is 5-4 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 13 starts.  Quantrill has never lost to the Twins, going 5-0 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  Bet the Rockies Tuesday.

15* Guardians/Reds Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

This has the makings of a slug fest inside hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati tonight.  These are two terrible starting pitchers.  The Guardians are scoring 5.8 runs per game against left-handed starters, and the Reds are scoring 6.6 runs per game in their last seven games.

Triston McKenzie is 2-3 with a 4.16 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 12 starts this season while allowing a whopping 14 homers and 36 walks in 62 2/3 innings.  McKenzie is 0-0 with a 7.05 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 8 homers in 15 1/3 innings.  Lefty Brent Suter will be an opener before giving way to Cincinnati's suspect bullpen.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Cubs +125

The Tampa Bay Rays were just swept in four games by the Baltimore Orioles.  That series concluded on Monday while the Cubs had Monday off, giving them the rest advantage.

Jameson Taillon is 3-2 with a 3.47 ERA in nine starts for the Cubs this season.  He'll be opposed by Zach Eflin, who is 3-4 with a 4.14 ERA in 11 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts.

Taillon is 3-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in six career starts against the Rays.  Taillon's teams are 11-1 in his last 12 road starts against AL teams scoring 4.4 or fewer runs per game.  Tampa Bay is 0-8 in home games off three consecutive games against division opponents this season.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on A's/Padres OVER 7

The OVER is 4-1 in Padres last five home games with 7 or more combined runs in all five and 10 or more combined runs in four of the five.  They just combined for 12, 14 and 13 runs in their last three games coming in against the Diamondbacks.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.

The Padres should stay hot at the plate against Joey Estes, who is 2-1 with a 4.67 ERA in five starts this season, including 1-1 with a 6.58 ERA in three road starts.  But the A's should have success against Dylan Cease, who is 1-4 with a 4.34 ERA in five home starts this season.  Cease has allowed 12 earned runs and 23 base runners in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Oakland, both of which came last season.

San Diego is 12-1 OVER off three consecutive games against a division opponent this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Kansas City Royals +115

This is a tough spot for the New York Yankees.  They played the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game last night and beat the Dodgers to avoid the sweep.  Now they have to travel to Kansas City and won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Royals as they were to beat the Dodgers.  Juan Soto is doubtful to play for the Yankees tonight as well.

The Royals have been grossly undervalued this season and are one of the best teams in baseball.  They should not be home underdogs to the Yankees.  They are 24-11 at home this season where they are scoring 5.7 runs per game.

Speaking of underrated, Seth Lugo is among the AL Cy Young favorites now after going 9-1 with a 2.24 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  Lugo is 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in two career starts against the Yankees, holding them to one earned run in 9 2/3 innings with 15 K's.

Carlos Rodon is due some regression at 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  He has allowed 8 homers in 41 2/3 innings in eight road starts this season.  Rodon is 0-3 with a 14.89 ERA in his last three starts against the Royals, allowing 16 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 2/3 innings.  Bet the Royals Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Royals OVER 8.5

Temps will be approaching 80 tonight in Kansas City and the ball should be flying out of Kauffman Stadium.  The Royals are scoring 5.7 runs per game at home while the Yankees are scoring 5.1 runs per game on the road as these are two of the best offenses in baseball.

Carlos Rodon is due some regression at 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  He has allowed 8 homers in 41 2/3 innings in eight road starts this season.  Rodon is 0-3 with a 14.89 ERA in his last three starts against the Royals, allowing 16 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 2/3 innings.

Seth Lugo is having a great season for the Royals but is due some regression as well.  We saw some in his last start as he allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings of a 8-5 loss to the Guardians.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks failed to show up in Game 1.  They shot 41.7% from the field, 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3-point range and 12-of-19 (63.2%) from the FT line.  Nothing went right for them offensively.  I think with two days off in between games to adjust, we get a much better effort from the Mavericks in Game 2 in Boston.

The Celtics shot 47.6% from the field and 16-of-42 (38.1%) from 3 and really put Game 1 away early thanks to a hot start from Kristaps Porzingis.  Things came very easily for the Celtics in Game 1, but they won't come nearly as easy in Game 2.  And we've seen the Celtics upset in a pair of Game 2's thus far in these playoffs losing to the Heat outright by 10 as 14-point favorites and to the Cavaliers outright by 24 as 13-point favorites.  They tend to relax after taking Game 1. 

Dallas is 34-17 ATS in road games this season. The Mavericks are 12-4 ATS in road games against Eastern Conference opponents this season. Dallas is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games after scoring 100 points or less. Bet the Mavericks in Game 2 Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/White Sox OVER 9

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Red Sox and White Sox today.  There are expected to be 20 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center with temps approaching 80 degrees this afternoon.

The White Sox just got their best hitter in Luis Robert back from a 53-game absence as well as 1B Allen Vaughn.  They have scored exactly 6 runs in three of their last four games.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in White Sox last eight games.  The Red Sox are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games while scoring a total of 46 runs in those eight games for an average of 5.8 runs per game.

Chris Flexen is one of the worst starters in baseball. He is 2-5 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 11 starts this season. The Red Sox will be making this a bullpen game starting with Zack Kelly and then likely the horrible Chase Anderson. Kelly will be making his first career starts.

Boston is 7-0 OVER in road games with a money line of +100 to -150 this season. The OVER is 20-5 in Flexen's last 25 starts. The OVER is 9-0 in Flexen's last nine day game starts. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Cubs/Reds NL Central ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -118

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday. They have lost the first three games of this series to the Cincinnati Reds and desperately want to avoid the sweep in Game 4.

I like their chances with a big advantage on the mound behind Shota Imanaga, who is 5-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 11 starts this season. He'll be opposed by Frankie Montas, who is 3-4 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 11 starts this season and averaging just 4.9 innings per start.

Montas' teams are 8-25 (-15.4 Units) in his 33 career starts as an underdog of +100 to +150. Montas' teams are 1-12 (-11.8 Units) in his last 13 home starts with a money line of -125 to +125. Montas' teams are 1-9 (-9.2 Units) in his last 10 home starts against division opponents. Bet the Cubs Sunday.

20* NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Padres/Diamondbacks OVER 8

Two terrible starting pitchers will get rocked by these two offenses tonight. The Padres are scoring 5.4 runs per game against right-handed starters while the Diamondbacks are scoring 4.8 runs per game on the road.

Ryne Nelson is 2-4 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in nine starts for the Diamondbacks this season. Matt Waldron is 1-4 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in five home starts for the Padres this season.

Nelson is 2-2 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in six career starts against the Padres. He has allowed 15 earned runs and 5 homers in 13 innings in his last three starts against San Diego. Waldron is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.38 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona, allowing 12 earned runs in 8 innings. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Rays OVER 8

This total is too low for these two offenses and starting pitchers. The Orioles are scoring 5.1 runs per game overall and 5.2 runs per game on the road. The Rays are heating up at the plate scoring 4.7 runs per game in their last seven games.

Kyle Bradish was rocked for 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 2 2/3 innings in his last start, which came against Tampa Bay in a 9-5 win. Taj Bradley was opposite Bradish in that game, and he allowed 9 earned runs, 4 homers and 12 base runners in 3 1/3 innings. Both offenses will have their way against these two starters again today.

Bradish is 1-3 with a 7.12 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in six career starts against Tampa Bay. Bradley is 1-1 with an 8.16 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three career starts against Baltimore. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Red Sox/White Sox OVER 8.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Red Sox and White Sox in Game 3 just as it did in the first two games of this series when they combined for 16 and 9 runs.  There are expected to be double-digit winds blowing out to left tonight in Chicago.

The White Sox just got their best hitter in Luis Robert back from a 53-game absence as well as 1B Allen Vaughn.  They scored 6 runs in two consecutive games against the Cubs and had 22 hits in those two games.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in White Sox last seven games.  The Red Sox are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games while scoring a total of 45 runs in those seven games for an average of 6.4 runs per game.

The Red Sox are capable of covering this total on their own against Nick Nastrini and this Chicago Bullpen that has a 4.81 ERA on the season. Nastrini is 0-5 with a 9.74 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 22 earned runs, 5 homers and 42 base runners in 20 1/3 innings.

Brayan Bello is 6-2 with a 4.36 ERA in 10 starts for the Red Sox this season. Bello is 4-1 with a 4.83 ERA in six road starts while allowing 6 homers in 31 2/3 innings away from home.

The OVER is 14-5 in Bello's last 19 road starts. The OVER is 8-0 in Bellow's last eight road starts vs. teams that average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto Blue Jays -132

The Toronto Blue Jays are heating up at the plate while going 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.  I expect them to stay hot at the plate against Hogan Harris and the lowly Oakland A's, who are 2-6 in their last eight games overall while scoring a total of 6 runs in their last four games.

Harris went 3-6 with a 7.14 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 63 innings for the A's last season.  Harris has posted a 7.67 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings in at AAA Las Vegas this season, allowing 25 earned runs and 5 homers in the process.  He is 0-1 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in two career starts against Toronto.

Chris Bassitt is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts while allowing just 3 earned runs in 17 innings with 18 K's.  He has now allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in six consecutive starts and nine of his last 10.  Bassitt has never lost to the A's, going 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Bassitt's teams are 25-4 (+19.8 Units) in his 29 career starts as a road favorite of -125 or higher.  Oakland is 5-21 (-13.6 Units) as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season.  Bet the Blue Jays Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/White Sox OVER 7.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Red Sox and White Sox tonight just as it did last night when they combined for 16 runs.  There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center with temps in the 70's tonight in Chicago.

The White Sox just got their best hitter in Luis Robert back from a 53-game absence as well as 1B Allen Vaughn.  They scored 6 runs in two consecutive games against the Cubs and had 22 hits in those two games.  The OVER is 5-0-1 in White Sox last six games.  The Red Sox are 5-1 OVER in their last six games while scoring a total of 43 runs in those six games for an average of 7.2 runs per game.

Cooper Criswell has allowed 7 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts for the Red Sox.  Garrett Crochet has allowed 9 homers in 69 2/3 innings this season and is getting too much respect from the books.  Both starters will struggle given the conditions favoring the hitters.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cubs/Reds OVER 9

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Cubs and Reds tonight.  There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center with temps in the 70's in Cincinnati tonight.  This is already one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball and the ball will be flying out tonight.

The OVER is 8-0-1 in Cubs last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.  That includes 13, 13 and 12 combined runs in their last three games coming in.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in Reds last seven games overall with 9 or more combined runs in five of those seven games, including 16, 19 and 12 combined runs in three of their last four.

Justin Steele is 0-2 with a 4.34 ERA in seven starts for the Cubs this season.  Steele is 2-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in seven career starts against the Reds.  Nick Lodolo is 2-1 with a 3.74 ERA in four home starts this season.  Lodolo is 1-1 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in three career starts against Chicago.

The OVER is 12-3 in Steele's last 15 starts against a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 19-6 in Steele's last 25 starts when working on 5 or 6 days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Mavericks/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks have been through the gauntlet beating the Clippers, Thunder and Timberwolves to get here while being the road team in all three series.  They have been a different team since trading for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford as they have become one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.

Indeed, the Mavericks are 28-9 SU & 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games overall.  I like the fact that they got some rest but not too much rest to the point that they would be rusty by dispatching of the Timberwolves in five games.  I worry about the rust factor for the Celtics, who have been off for the last nine days since sweeping the Pacers.

The Celtics were very fortunate to get an easy route to the playoffs due to injuries to opposing teams.  Jimmy Butler was out for the Heat along with a couple others.  Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen were out for the Cavaliers.  And Tyrese Haliburton got hurt in Game 2 and didn't play in Games 3 and 4.  Plus, the Pacers arguably should have been up 3-1 as they blew late leads in three of the games in losses by 3, 3 and 5 points.

This big step up in class for the Celtics will come as a shock to the system.  The Mavericks will offer a lot more resistance than those three banged-up teams did.  The Celtics will get back Kristaps Porzingis for this series, but I imagine they will be cautious with him in Game 1.  The Mavericks should dominate the boards in this series as their bigs offer much more of a presence than Porzingis and Horford will for the Celtics.

Dallas is 9-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.  The Mavericks are 12-3 ATS in road games against Eastern Conference opponents this season.  Dallas is 34-16 ATS in all road games this season.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 1 Thursday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/White Sox OVER 8

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Red Sox and White Sox tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 18 MPH winds blowing out to center at game time.  That's a recipe for a ton of home runs tonight.

The White Sox just got their best hitter in Luis Robert back from a 53-game absence as well as 1B Allen Vaughn.  They scored 6 runs in each of their last two games against the Cubs over the past two days and had 22 hits in those two games.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in White Sox last five games.  The Red Sox are 4-1 OVER in their last five games while scoring a total of 29 runs in those five games.

Jake Woodford is one of the worst starters in baseball and will be making his 2nd start of the season for the White Sox.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings to the Blue Jays in his first start.  While Tanner Houck has been great for the Red Sox, he does not enjoy facing the White Sox.  Houck is 0-3 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in three career starts against the White Sox.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Dodgers/Pirates OVER 8.5

The Dodgers and Pirates combined for 16 runs yesterday.  I'm expecting another slug fest given the forecast tonight.  Temps will be in the upper-70's with 11 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at game time.

Walker Buehler is making his way back from injury.  He is 1-3 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in two road starts.  He has already allowed 4 homers in 9 innings on the road this season.  Buehler allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings in his last start against Pittsburgh.

Bailey Falter is due some big regression.  He is 3-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  But he has allowed 9 homers with only 38 K's in 64 1/3 innings.  A guy that pitches to contact should not have this good of numbers, and that contact is bound to start falling for more hits moving forward.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Dodgers/Pirates NL ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -111

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a big advantage on the mound over the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.  They shut out the Dodgers 1-0 yesterday with a great start from Jared Jones, and now they send their ace to the mound and baseball's top prospect.

Paul Skenes has lived up to the hype by going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  He has allowed just 6 earned runs in 22 innings with 30 K's.

James Paxton is 5-0 in spite of a 1.38 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He has been very fortunate to not allow more earned runs with all the runners he has put on base with 28 walks and only 31 K's in 52 innings.  Paxton has paid the price lately with a 5.27 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 4 homers in 13 2/3 innings.  Bet the Pirates Wednesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mets/Nationals OVER 9

The OVER is 4-0-1 in Mets last five games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all five games.  They have scored a total of 33 runs in those five games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  The Nationals have scored 15 runs in their last three games for an average of 5.0 runs per game.

Any time Patrick Corbin is starting my first look is going to be to bet against him or take the OVER.  Corbin has been one of the worst starters in baseball for the last several years.  He is 1-6 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Corbin has allowed 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Mets.

Luis Severino is 3-2 with a 3.94 ERA in 11 starts this season.  But while he has been very good at home, it has been a different story on the road.  Severino is 0-1 with a 5.16 ERA in four starts away from home this season.

The Mets are 18-7-2 OVER in all road games this season.  New York is 11-3 OVER in road games with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs this season.  The Mets are 9-0 OVER in road games against division opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-135)

The Chicago Cubs have a big advantage on the mound over the Chicago White Sox tonight that should have them winning this game by multiple runs.  The White Sox are the worst team in baseball right now going 1-15 in their last 16 games overall with 14 losses by 2 runs or more.

The Cubs should hang a big number on Chris Flexen, who is 2-5 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Flexen is 0-2 with an 8.56 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 13 earned runs, 3 homers and 25 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.  Flexen faced the Cubs three times last season, going 0-1 with a 9.24 ERA and 2.37 WHIP while allowing 13 earned runs and 30 base runners in 12 2/3 innings.

Shota Imanaga is 5-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in five home starts.  He'll be facing a weak Chicago lineup that is hitting .206 and scoring 2.5 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Cubs OVER 9

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Cubs and White Sox at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.  Temps will be in the 70's with 14 MPH winds blowing out to left tonight.  

The Cubs are capable of covering this total on their own against Chris Flexen, who is 2-5 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Flexen is 0-2 with an 8.56 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 13 earned runs, 3 homers and 25 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.  Flexen faced the Cubs three times last season, going 0-1 with a 9.24 ERA and 2.37 WHIP while allowing 13 earned runs and 30 base runners in 12 2/3 innings.

Shota Imanaga finally came back down to reality with his worst start of the season last time out.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings to the Brewers.  While I don't expect the White Sox to have nearly as much success as the Brewers did, I do expect them to do enough offensively to contribute to us cashing this OVER 9 ticket.

The OVER is 9-0 in Flexen's last nine interleague starts.  The OVER is 19-5 in Flexen's 24 starts over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 9-0 in Flexen's nine career starts against NL teams with a batting average of .245 or worse.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New York Yankees -1.5 (+120)

The New York Yankees are the best team in baseball at 42-19 this season.  They have own the Minnesota Twins and have a big advantage on the mound over them tonight that should allow them to win this game by multiple runs.

Luis Gil is 7-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 11 starts this season with 79 K's in 63 1/3 innings.  Gil has been at his best at home, going 4-0 with a 1.27 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in five starts with 44 K's in 28 1/3 innings and only one homer allowed.

Bailey Ober is 5-3 with a 4.90 ERA in 11 starts this season while allowing 10 homers in 57 innings.  Ober has been at his worst on the road, going 3-2 with a 5.52 ERA in six starts away from home.  Ober is 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 14 innings.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals +107

Note: The Nationals have called up DJ Herz to make his MLB debut in place of an injured Trevor Williams since I posted this pick.  The left-handed posted a 3.75 ERA and 42 K's in 36 innings for AAA Rochester and is one of their top prospects.  I would downgrade this to a 15* play with Herz instead of Williams.

Trevor Williams is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Williams is 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in four home starts.  The Nationals are 9-2 (+11.7 Units) in his 11 starts this season.

David Peterson will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Mets, and he should not be favored over Williams and the Nationals tonight.  Peterson is 0-1 with a 7.80 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last three starts against the Nationals, allowing 13 earned runs and 30 base runners in 15 innings.

The Nationals are 7-0 in Williams' seven starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs this season.  The Nationals are 6-0 in William's six night starts this season.  The Mets are 2-10 in Peterson's last 12 starts following a team win.  Wrong team favored tonight.  Bet the Nationals Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +111

Seth Lugo is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Lugo is 9-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 6-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in six road starts.  He should not be an underdog to Triston McKenzie and the Cleveland Guardians tonight.

McKenzie has been wild this season at 2-3 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 11 starts.  He has already allowed 11 homers and 34 walks in 57 1/3 innings.  The Royals will make him pay for being erratic.

Kansas City is 15-4 following three or more consecutive home games this season.  The Royals are 8-0 in Lugo's eight starts vs. AL teams with a batting average of .255 or worse this season.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles -108

We are getting the better team, the better starter, the better offense and the better bullpen at basically even money tonight.  I'll gladly back the Baltimore Orioles over the Toronto Blue Jays in this one.

Grayson Rodriquez is 5-2 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in nine starts for the Orioles this season with 61 K's in 51 innings.  Rodriquez has a 4.32 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in three career starts against Toronto.  He'll be backed up by an offense that is scoring 5.0 runs per game this season and a bullpen with a 3.65 ERA.

Kevin Gausman is 4-3 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 6.20 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in five home starts.  Gausman is 1-3 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in five career starts against Baltimore.  He'll be backed up by an offense that is scoring just 4.0 runs per game and a bullpen with a 4.56 ERA and one that is without closer Jordan Romano.  Bet the Orioles Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -115

The Washington Nationals are one of the most improved teams in baseball this season.  They are 27-31 (+10.4 Units) making them one of the most profitable teams to back.  I think they are showing great value tonight as short home favorites over the New York Mets, who are 24-35 (-11.7 Units) this season and overvalued.

Mackenzie Gore is 4-4 with a 2.92 ERA in 11 starts this season with 72 K's in 58 2/3 innings.  He is one of the best young starters in baseball.  Gore is 1-1 with a 2.40 ERA in three career starts against the Mets as well.

Tylor MeGill will be making just his 4th start of the season and is overvalued due to good numbers with a small sample size.  MeGill is 3-2 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in five career starts against Washington.

The Mets are 6-17 in their last 23 games overall.  Bet the Nationals Monday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -116

The Chicago Cubs came back from 4-0 down to beat the Reds yesterday and end a skid that saw them lose eight of their previous nine games.  I think they carry over that positive momentum into another win in Game 3 today to take this series.

The Cubs have a big advantage on the mound today behind the underrated Ben Brown.  The rookie is 0-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing just 6 earned runs, one homer and 27 base runners in 30 innings with 34 K's.  He fired 7 shutout innings with 10 K's in his last start against the Brewers.

Nick Lodolo will be on a pitch count after returning from the IL in his last start on May 27th against the Cardinals.  He has a 4.96 ERA in his last three starts.  Lodolo is 0-1 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in two career starts against the Cubs as well.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-144)

The Chicago White Sox are the worst team in baseball right now.  They have gone 0-10 in their last 10 games overall with nine losses by 2 runs or more.  They are without their two best hitters in Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez, and they just lost Andrew Benintendi and Andrew Vaughn to injuries recently as well.

Things won't go any better for the White Sox today with Nick Nastrini on the mound up against his potent Milwaukee lineup that is scoring 5.6 runs per game at home this season.  Nastrini is 0-4 with a 9.92 ERA and 2.21 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 18 earned runs, 4 homers and 17 walks in 16 1/3 innings.

The Brewers have a big advantage on the mound behind Freddy Peralta, who is 3-3 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 11 starts this season with 82 K's in 62 1/3 innings.  Peralta is 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in four home starts this season as well.  He has fired 10 shutout innings in two career starts against the White Sox.

The White Sox are 1-16 off a loss by 2 runs or more this season and getting outscored by 3.7 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Sunday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -125

The Kansas City Royals will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the San Diego Padres.  I like their chances of taking Game 3 to salvage due to their massive advantage on the mound.

Cole Ragans is one of the best young starters in the game.  He is 4-4 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 12 starts this season with 83 K's in 67 innings and only 3 homers allowed.  Ragans is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 3 earned runs in 18 innings with 26 K's.

Michael King has already allowed 12 homers in 62 2/3 innings this season.  King is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in two career starts against the Royals, allowing 6 earned runs, 4 homers and 14 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.  With double-digit winds blowing out to left and temps in the 80's, King is likely to give up multiple homers today.

The Padres are hitting .230 and scoring just 2.5 runs per game in their 19 games against left-handed starters this season.  King's teams are 2-8 (-9.6 Units) in his last 10 day game starts.  Bet the Royals Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Royals OVER 8

The Padres and Royals combined for 19 runs in Game 1 and 10 runs in Game 2.  Game 2 saw 8 runs in the first 3.5 innings, so both bullpens are taxed.  And the hitters will have the advantage again in Game 3 with double-digit winds blowing out to left and temps in the 80's this afternoon in Kansas City.

The Royals are capable of covering this total on their own against Michael King.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game at home this season.  King has already allowed 12 homers in 62 2/3 innings this season.  King is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in two career starts against the Royals, allowing 6 earned runs, 4 homers and 14 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.

The Padres are hitting .294 and scoring 5.4 runs per game on the road this season.  Cole Ragans is 4-4 with a 3.49 ERA in 12 starts this season and 3-2 with a 3.68 ERA in seven home starts.  I think the Padres will do enough against Ragans and this tired KC bullpen to help contribute to the OVER 8 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +136

The Washington Nationals have been one of the most profitable teams in baseball this season.  They are 16-18 (+7.7 Units) on the road alone.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the Cleveland Guardians, who will relax after winning the first two.

I believe the Nationals have the advantage on the mound today and should not be underdogs as a result.  Jake Irvin has posted a 3.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 11 starts this season, and he is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in seven road starts.  He has been one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball.

Carlos Carrasco is the worst starter in Cleveland's rotation.  Carrasco is 2-4 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-2 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in three home starts.  Carrasco is 2-3 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in eight career starts against Washington.  He allowed 8 runs, 6 earned, and 9 base runners in 2 1/3 innings in his last start against the Nationals.  Bet the Nationals Sunday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Cubs OVER 7

The OVER is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between the Reds and Cubs with 8 or more combined runs in 13 of those 15 meetings.  This total of 7 is too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers tonight.

Justin Steele is 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA in six starts this season, including 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in three home starts.  Steele is 2-3 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.99 WHIP in six career starts against Cincinnati.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 19 hits in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Reds.

Hunter Greene has solid numbers this season at 3-2 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 11 starts.  But I expect the Cubs to get to him today as they have now scored 4 runs or more in four consecutive games and are heating up at the plate as they have gotten fully healthy.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Padres/Royals OVER 8.5

The Padres and Royals busted out for 19 combined ones in Game 1 of this series.  Both bullpens are now taxed, and both of these starting pitchers are vulnerable.  I expect another slug fest in Game 2 tonight that tops 8.5 combined runs.

Joe Musgrove has been a major disappointment for the Padres this season.  He is 3-4 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 6.17 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in three road starts.  He'll be facing a red hot Royals lineup that has scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 14 games.

The Padres put up 11 runs last night and are scoring over 5 runs per game on the road this season.  They should get to Alec Marsh, who is coming off one of his worst starts of the season.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 7 innings to the Twins on May 27th.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +149

The Pittsburgh Pirates will come back pissed off today after losing in the 14th inning to the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 1 of this series last night.  The value we are getting on the Pirates is too good to pass up today.

Mitch Keller is 6-3 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He has been inspired by some rookies that are getting all the shine in the rotation.  Keller is 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his last three starts.

Yusei Kikuchi has come back down to reality after a great start to the season.  Kikuchi is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in his last three starts, which have come against the Tigers, White Sox and Orioles so it's not like he has faced murderer's row.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 3 innings of a 14-11 loss to the Tigers in his last start.

The Pirates are 16-12 (+9.6 Units) in Keller's last 28 starts as an underdog.  The Blue Jays are 17-22 (-17.6 Units) in Kikuchi's last 39 starts as a favorite.  Bet the Pirates Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +130

The Kansas City Royals are 21-8 (+13.5 Units) at home this season and one of the most underrated teams in baseball.  They should not be home underdogs to the San Diego Padres tonight.

Michael Wacha is one of the most underrated starters in baseball as well.  Wacha is 3-1 with a 2.52 ERA in his last four starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 25 innings.  Wacha is 3-1 with a 2.27 ERA in seven career starts against the Padres, and this will be his first start against his former team so he will be highly motivated.

Dylan Cease is getting way too much respect from the books tonight.  He is 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 26 base runners in 16 1/3 innings.

Wacha's teams are 22-6 (+13.8 Units) in his last 28 home starts.  Wacha's teams are 25-7 (+18.3 Units) in his last 32 starts following a team loss last game.  Bet the Royals Friday.

15* MLB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Pittsburgh Pirates +155

The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing tremendous value Friday.  They haven't named a starter as of this writing but it's likely to be Bailey Falter.  I like the Pirates either way.

Falter is 3-2 with a 3.55 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  The Blue Jays are hitting .211 and scoring 2.9 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  They should not be this big of a favorite regardless.

The Pirates are heating up at the plate scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last eight games overall.  Jose Berrios has been solid this season, but he has allowed 4 homers in 20 innings in his last three starts and 10 homers in 67 1/3 innings this season.  He is getting too much respect here, especially since he's being backed up by a terrible offense and a bullpen that has a 4.77 ERA on the season and a 5.42 ERA at home.  Bet the Pirates Friday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles -126

The Baltimore Orioles are one of the best teams in baseball at 35-19 this season.  We are getting them at a great value tonight in Game 1 of this series against the Tampa Bay Rays.  That's especially the case when you consider the Orioles have the rest advantage and the advantage on the mound.

The Orioles are 6-1 in their last seven games overall while scoring 6.1 runs per game during this stretch.  They had yesterday off and will be fresh and ready to go.  I'll gladly back the underrated Albert Suarez, who is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing just 4 earned runs and one homer in 19 1/3 innings.

The Rays just completed their series with the A's yesterday and won the final two games by exactly one run, so their bullpen is taxed.  I'll gladly fade Aaron Civale, who is 2-4 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 11 starts this season while allowing 11 homers in 56 2/3 innings.  Civale is 1-2 with a 7.40 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in five road starts, allowing 20 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings away from home.

Civale is legitimately one of the worst starters in ball of baseball.  He doesn't enjoy facing the Orioles, either, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in three careers starts against them while allowing 6 homers in 16 innings.  Bet the Orioles Friday.

20* AL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rays/Orioles OVER 8

The Orioles are 6-1 in their last seven games overall while scoring 6.1 runs per game during this stretch.  They are more than capable of covering this total on their own tonight, but I expect the Rays to chip in as well.

Aaron Civale is 2-4 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 11 starts this season while allowing 11 homers in 56 2/3 innings.  Civale is 1-2 with a 7.40 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in five road starts, allowing 20 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings away from home.  Civale is legitimately one of the worst starters in ball of baseball.  He doesn't enjoy facing the Orioles, either, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in three careers starts against them while allowing 6 homers in 16 innings.

Albert Suerez is due some regression and isn't going to go very deep into this game, meaning the Orioles will have to turn to their bullpen early.  Suarez is only averaging 4.8 innings per start in his four starts this season.  This has been a shaky Baltimore bullpen this season, and the Rays have been even worst on that front, plus their bullpen is taxed after consecutive one-run wins over the A's the last two days.

Tampa Bay is 18-5 OVER in its last 23 games after a game where its bullpen threw 7 or more innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Reds/Cubs NL Central Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

This total is too low for a hitter-friendly park like Wrigley Field and two starting pitchers that are trending in the wrong direction.  I expect both offenses to have their way this afternoon in what will be a slug fest.

Graham Ashcraft is 4-3 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 10 starts this season after going 1-1 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his three starts, allowing 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 25 base runners in 14 1/3 innings.  Ashcraft is 1-5 with a 9.45 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in six career starts against the Cubs.

Javier Assad has finally shown a chink in the armor in his last two starts.  He has allowed 6 earned runs, 4 homers and 17 base runners in 9 2/3 innings.  He was due some negative regression and will get rocked again today.

The OVER is 17-6 in Ashcraft's last 23 starts against a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 13-3 in Reds last 16 road games against a NL starting pitcher with a 3.20 ERA or better.  The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings with 8 or more combined runs in 12 of those 14 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Mavericks/Timberwolves TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves were due some positive shooting regression and some positive regression in close games.  The Mavericks out shot them in the first three games of the series drastically and they were still all 50/50 games in the final three minutes.  Dallas won all of them.

Minnesota has life now after a 105-100 victory in Game 4 as they shot 52.7% while Dallas shot just 42%.  I love some of the adjustments they made by trailing Luka Doncic and not letting him have a bunch of step backs, which is his game.  They funneled him to the rim and he looked a lot more uncomfortable in Game 4.

I think the Timberwolves have a legitimate shot to come back and win this series, and I'm expecting a blowout victory in their favor in Game 5 at home.  Dereck Lively II is questionable to play tonight after sitting Game 4.  He is their best rebounder and rim defender, and the Timberwolves were able to get to the rim at will without him.  Even if he plays he won't be 100%.  Bet the Timberwolves Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +180

The Washington Nationals have been quietly one of the most profitable teams in baseball to back this season.  They are 25-29 (+9.5 Units) in all games and 15-16 (+8 Units) in road games.  They are consistently undervalued as underdogs, and that is the case again today.

Trevor Williams is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 10 starts this season, and the Nationals are 8-2 (+10 Units) in his eight starts.  He should not be this big of an underdog to the Braves, who are really struggling at the plate getting outscored 15-8 by the Nationals in three games thus far in this series.  The loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. isn't being factored in enough.

The Braves will turn to rookie Ray Kerr tonight, and he is getting way too much respect that is unwarranted.  Kerr went 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA at AAA Gwinnett.  Kerr has a 5.40 ERA in 13 1/3 innings with the Braves this season as well.  He has allowed a whopping 7 homers in 27 1/3 innings between AAA and the Braves this season.  

The Braves are 5-9 in their last 14 games overall despite being favored in 13 of them and have been held to 3 runs or fewer in nine of those 14 games.  Bet the Nationals Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Astros/Mariners OVER 7

After a pair of pitcher's duels to open this series, there's value on the OVER 7 in Game 3 with these two starting pitchers on the mound.  I'm expecting both offenses to break out today.

Spencer Arrighetti has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, and no game involving Arrighetti should have a total of 7.  He is 2-5 with a 6.93 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-4 with a 10.26 ERA and 2.28 WHIP in four road starts.  The Mariners are capable of covering this total on their own.

Logan Gilbert is 0-2 with a 5.96 ERA in his last four starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 5 homers in his last 5 starts against the Astros.  Houston is scoring 4.6 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.

Houston is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 road games after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Kansas City Royals +120

What more does Seth Lugo have to do to get some respect?  He and the Kansas City Royals are grossly undervalued this season and remain undervalued as underdogs to the Minnesota Twins tonight when they shouldn't be.

Lugo is 8-1 with a 1.87 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 5-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in five road starts.  Lugo is 0-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in three career starts against the Twins as well.

Bailey Ober is getting way too much respect tonight.  He is 5-2 with a 4.33 ERA in 10 starts this season.  Ober has never beaten the Royals, going 0-3 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  He has allowed 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 5 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Royals.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+116)

The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing seven of their last eight games overall including Game 1 of this series to the Oakland A's.  They have a big advantage on the mound tonight that should have them winning this game by multiple runs.

Ryan Pepiot is 3-2 with a 3.98 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in eight starts for the Rays this season with 44 K's in 40 2/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Joey Estes, who is 1-1 with a 7.47 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 19 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  

The A's are 0-6 in their last six games following a win.  Oakland is 6-16 in its last 22 games overall with 13 losses by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/Orioles OVER 7

This is a very low total for a game involving the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox.  The Orioles are scoring 5.0 runs per game overall and 5.0 runs per game at home.  The Red Sox are scoring 4.9 runs per game on the road and 4.9 runs per game against right-handed starters.

The Red Sox and their opponents have combined for at least 7 runs in 10 of their last 13 games overall, including 9 runs or more in nine of those 13 games.  The Orioles and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in six of their last seven games overall, and 7 runs or more in 10 of their last 12 games overall.

Kutter Crawford allowed 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against the Brewers on May 24th.  Crawford is 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA in three career starts against Baltimore.  Corbin Burnes is getting too much respect from the books.  He allowed 3 earned runs and 9 base runners in 6 innings of a 6-4 win over the lowly White Sox in his last start, and he has faced a very easy schedule of opponents this season.

The OVER is 4-0-1 in five meetings between the Orioles and Red Sox this season with 11 or more combined runs in four of the five.  The Orioles and Red Sox have combined for 7 runs or more in seven consecutive meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Astros/Mariners OVER 7.5

Any game with Hunter Brown starting for the Astros should not have a total of 7.5 or lower.  Brown is 1-5 with a 7.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-3 with a 19.95 ERA and 3.91 WHIP in three road starts.  Brown is 0-2 with an 11.70 ERA and 3.00 WHIP in three career starts against Seattle, allowing 13 earned runs and 30 base runners in 10 innings.

The Astros will have enough success at the plate against Luis Castillo to get us the OVER as well.  Castillow has allowed 9 homers in 65 1/3 innings this season, including 4 homers in 17 innings in his last three starts.  Castillo allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings in his last start against Houston.

Houston is 22-9 OVER in its last 31 games off a one-run loss.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners -128

Hunter Brown is 1-5 with a 7.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-3 with a 19.95 ERA and 3.91 WHIP in three road starts.  Brown is 0-2 with an 11.70 ERA and 3.00 WHIP in three career starts against Seattle, allowing 13 earned runs and 30 base runners in 10 innings.

The Mariners have a massive advantage on the mound with Luis Castillo over Brown.  Castillo is 4-6 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Castillo is 2-2 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in five career starts against the Astros.

Houston is 0-9 when revenging three consecutive losses to an opponent as a favorite this season.  Bet the Mariners Tuesday.

20* Timberwolves/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota +1.5

To say the Dallas Mavericks are due some negative shooting regression would be a massive understatement.  They shot 49.4% in Game 1, 48.8% in Game 2 and 55.9% in Game 3 including 14-of-28 (50%) from 3-point range.  I don't think Doncic and Irving can keep up this pace in Game 4 tonight.

To say the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression would also be an understatement.  They shot 42.7% from the field in Game 1, 41.2% in Game 2 and just 9-of-30 (30%) from 3-point range in Game 3.  And despite losing the shooting battle in all three games, the Timberwolves had a great chance to win all three in the final 3 minutes.

The Mavericks just lost Dereck Lively II to a neck injury in Game 3 and he is doubtful to play tonight.  The Timberwolves really attacked the rim when he wasn't on the court and will have plenty of success doing just that tonight.  Lively II along with Gafford are the reason the Mavericks have been so dominant on the interior defensively.  Losing their leading rebounder in Lively II is a sneaky injury that isn't being factored in enough with all of the dirty work he does for this team.

Minnesota is 11-2 ATS following three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  Dallas is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 home games off a home win.  The Timberwolves are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS on the road in these playoffs.  This series isn't over just yet.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 4 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Cubs +144

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost five consecutive games for the first time all season, including Game 1 of this series to the Brewers yesterday.  Now is a great time to 'buy low' on the Cubs in one of their biggest underdog roles of the season.

This line suggest that the Brewers have a big advantage on the mound, but I don't believe that to be the case.  Ben Brown has been awesome for the Cubs this season with a 2.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in five starts while allowing only 6 earned runs and one homer in 23 innings with 24 K's.

Freddy Peralta consistently gets too much respect from the books.  He is 3-3 with a 3.81 ERA in 10 starts this season, and 1-0 with a 4.24 ERA in three home starts.  Peralta has allowed 6 earned runs and 16 base runners in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Cubs.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Orioles OVER 8

The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best lineups in baseball.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season and have now scored at least 4 runs in six consecutive games.  The Boston Red Sox are scoring 4.8 runs per game on the road this season and 4.8 runs per game against right-handed starters.  I expect both teams to get 4-plus runs tonight.

The Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own against Bryan Bello, who is 5-2 with a 4.04 ERA in eight starts this season, and 3-1 with a 4.72 ERA in five road starts while allowing 14 earned runs and 6 homers in 26 2/3 innings on the highway.  Bello is 1-2 with a 4.02 ERA in three career starts against the Orioles.

Grayson Rodriquez is -1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in two career starts against Boston while allowing 6 runs, 4 earned, and 17 base runners in 10 innings.  Both lineups have seen these two starters earlier this season in 2024 which gives them an advantage as well.

The OVER is 20-10 in Rodriquez's last 30 starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers should be up 2-1 on the Boston Celtics in this series.  This is a much more evenly matched series than these lines have suggested, and they should not be catching 8.5 points in Game 4 tonight.

The Pacers' biggest strength is their depth, and with only one day of rest in between every game so far that works in their favor the longer this series goes.  The Celtics are still without Kristaps Porzingis and now Luke Kornet is out, giving them zero rim protection inside.

The Pacers took advantage in Game 3 and got to the rim at will, and they will get to the rim at will again in Game 4.  The Pacers only shot 5-of-22 (22.7%) from 3 in Game 3 and still only lost by 3.  They are due some positive shooting regression in that department as well.

The Pacers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games with their lone loss coming in 3 points in Game 4.  They have a tremendous home-court advantage.  Bet the Pacers in Game 4 Monday.

15* Phillies/Giants NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

Both the Phillies and Giants are raking at the plate right now.  The Phillies are scoring 5.4 runs per game this season, and the Giants have scored 6 or more runs in seven of their last nine games overall.  Both of these starting pitchers are vulnerable in this one.

Blake Snell is 0-3 with an 11.40 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 19 earned runs in 15 innings.  Taijuan Walker is 3-0 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 26 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Cubs/Brewers NL Central No-Brainer on OVER 8

This total is too short for these two starting pitchers up against these two potent offenses.  The Brewers are scoring 5.0 runs per game overall and 5.2 runs per game at home.  The Cubs are scoring 4.5 runs per game against left-handed starters.

Justin Steele has battled injury and is 0-2 with a 6.04 ERA in five starts this season, including 0-0 with a 7.27 ERA in two road starts.  Steele is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 16 innings.

Robert Gasser is 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in three starts for the Brewers, but he has terrible stuff with just 6 K's in 17 innings.  He has also faced the Marlins, Pirates and Cardinals and takes a big step up in class here against this Cubs lineup.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Cards/Reds NL Central ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Cardinals and Reds tonight.  There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.

Both the Cardinals and Reds are heating up at the plate and both should have success today against these two starting pitchers.  Lance Lynn is 2-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 10 starts for the Cardinals this season.

Lynn has allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Reds.  Nick Lodolo is 1-1 with a 7.04 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in two careers tarts against St. Louis.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Cubs/Cardinals ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Chicago +124

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight coming in off three consecutive losses.  This is the first time all season they have lost more than two in a row, so they have been very resilient.

I'll gladly back Javier Assad, who has the best ERA in all of baseball dating back to last June.  Assad is 4-0 with a 1.70 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 10 starts this season while allowing just 4 homers and 10 earned runs in 53 innings.

Sonny Gray has really struggled in his last three starts for the Cardinals, going 2-1 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP while allowing 12 earned runs, 5 homers and 23 base runners in 16 2/3 innings.  He should not be getting this much respect from the books tonight.

The Cubs are 8-2 in Assad's last 10 starts as an underdog.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

20* Timberwolves/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota +3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves shot 42.7% while the Dallas Mavericks shot 49.4% in Game 1 with the Mavericks winning 108-105.  The Timberwolves shot 41.2% while the Mavericks shot 48.8% in Game 2 with Dallas winning 109-108.

As you can see, the two games were decided by a combined 4 points.  It's safe to say the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression in this series, while it will be hard for the Mavericks to keep up this pace against the best defensive team in the league.  I think we get that positive regression in Game 3 for the Timberwolves.

Minnesota has actually played its best basketball on the road in these playoffs.  Indeed, the Timberwolves are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS on the road in the postseason.  They beat the Suns by 17 and 6, and they beat the Nuggets by 7, 26 and 8 points in their five road victories.

Minnesota has been a resilient team all season and will respond in Game 3 tonight.  The Timberwolves are 11-3 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  The Timberwolves are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -111

The Cleveland Guardians are 8-0 in their last eight games overall and will be motivated to keep this winning streak going Sunday.  That's why I'm not worried about a letdown here after they took the first two games of this series from the Angels.  Plus, they have a massive advantage on the mound.

Ben Lively is 3-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in seven starts for the Guardians this season.  Lively allowed just one earned run in 6 innings of a 7-1 victory over the Angels in his lone career start against them, which came earlier this month on May 4th.

Reid Detmers is 3-4 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in five home starts.  Detmers is 0-1 with a 10.29 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs, 4 homers and 28 base runners in 14 innings.

Detmers allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings of a 7-1 loss to the Guardians on May 4th earlier this month opposite Lively.  That should come as no surprise considering the Guardians are 9-2 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .272 and scoring 6.5 runs per game against them.  The Angels are 13-29 against right-handed starters this season, hitting .234 and scoring 3.9 runs per game against them.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Guardians/Angels OVER 8

The Cleveland Guardians are capable of covering this total on their own.  The Guardians are 9-2 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .272 and scoring 6.5 runs per game against them.

Lefty Reid Detmers is 3-4 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in five home starts.  Detmers is 0-1 with a 10.29 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs, 4 homers and 28 base runners in 14 innings.  Detmers allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings of a 7-1 loss to the Guardians on May 4th earlier this month.

I think the Angels will do enough to contribute to this total against Ben Lively, who is due some negative regression.  Lively is 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in four road starts this season and has been much better at home than he has been on the road.  The Angels are scoring 4.3 runs per game at home this season.

The OVER is 17-7 in Detmers' last 24 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The OVER is 19-8 in Angels last 27 games against an AL starting pitcher with a 3.40 ERA or better.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-135)

I love the spot for the Atlanta Braves today.  They will be highly motivated for a victory after losing the first two games of this series to the Pittsburgh Pirates as -165 and -150 favorites.  Now they will avoid the sweep and win in a blowout in Game 3 due to their massive advantage on the mound.

The old Chris Sale is back.  He is 7-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in nine starts this season, allowing just 14 earned runs, 4 homers and 8 walks in 56 2/3 innings with 70 K's.  Sale is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last three starts, pitching 20 shutout innings with 28 K's.

Martin Perez is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 1-3 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Perez has really struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 9.42 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 15 earned runs, 7 homers and 28 base runners in 14 1/3 innings.

The Braves are 71-25 when revenging two consecutive losses as a -150 favorite and outscoring opponents by 2.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110)

I love the spot for the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight after getting shut out 3-0 by the Miami Marlins as -180 favorites in Game 1.  It was a letdown spot for the Diamondbacks coming off consecutive wins over the Dodgers in Los Angeles the two games prior.

Now the Diamondbacks will be refocused tonight and I like their chances of winning by multiple runs with the massive advantage they have on the mound.  Lefty Jordan Montgomery is 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in three career starts against Miami, and his teams are 3-0 in those three starts winning all three by 2 runs or more.

I mention lefty because the Marlins are atrocious against left-handed starters, going 1-17 against them this season while hitting .220 and scoring just 2.8 runs per game.  I'll also gladly fade Sixto Sanchez, who is one of the worst starters in baseball.  Sanchez is 0-1 with a 6.51 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 34 base runners in 19 1/3 innings with just 12 K's.  Bet the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Saturday.

15* Yankees/Padres MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

Both the Yankees and Padres feast on right-handed pitching.  The Yankees are scoring 5.1 runs per game against right-handed starters this season, while the Padres are scoring 5.3 runs per game against them.  This total of 7.5 is too low tonight for these two offenses.

Marcus Stroman is due some regression considering he already has 26 walks and 8 homers allowed in 56 innings.  Dylan Cease has struggled in his last two starts, allowing 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 18 base runners in 9 2/3 innings.  Cease is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in four career starts against the Yankees as well.

The OVER is 5-1 in Yankees last six games overall with 8 or more combined runs in five of the six.  The OVER is 8-3 in Padres last 11 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in eight of those 11 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Celtics/Pacers ABC No-Brainer on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Pacers may not have Tyrese Haliburton tonight.  But teams tend to rally in that first game without their star player, and I expect the Pacers to do just that tonight.  TJ McConnell is one of the best backup PG's in the NBA with not only his ability to run the offense, but also his ability to defend.  He has been a monster in these playoffs.

The Pacers are also one of the deepest teams in the NBA which is their biggest strength, so the loss of Haliburton won't hurt them as much as it would most teams.  And this Indiana team has been dynamite at home in these playoffs with one of the biggest home-court advantages in the NBA.

Indeed, the Pacers are a perfect 11-0 SU in their last 11 home games including 6-0 in these playoffs.  They will feed off their home crowd tonight.  I also wouldn't be surprised if this is the 'clunker' game for the Celtics, who have one in every series.  They could let up knowing they likely won't have to face Haliburton and with a 2-0 lead in this series.  Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cubs/Cardinals OVER 8

Temps will be in the 80's with the ball flying out in St. Louis tonight.  The Cardinals are hot at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in six of their last nine games overall with the OVER going 7-1-1 in those nine games.  The Cubs have cooled off of late, but I expect them to get their bats going tonight.

They will feast on Miles Mikolas, who is 3-5 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in four road starts.  Mikolas has allowed 6 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Cubs.

James Taillon is getting too much respect for what he has done in a small sample size of six starts this season.  But Taillon has come back down to reality in his last two starts, allowing 10 runs, 5 earned, 3 homers and 18 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Dodgers/Reds OVER 9

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds combined for 15 runs yesterday in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.  It will be another slug fest tonight with the ball flying out with temps in the 80's and light winds blowing out to center.

Walker Buehler is making his way back from injury for the Dodgers and has not been sharp in his three starts, averaging just 4.4 innings per start with a 4.05 ERA and 3 homers allowed.  He will be on a pitch count again tonight.

Hunter Greene is 0-2 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in six home starts for the Reds this season.  Green is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 2/3 innings.

Cincinnati is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 home games against a NL team with a .430 slugging percentage or higher.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Guardians/Angels OVER 7.5

Two of the most underrated offenses in baseball square off tonight with a total of only 7.5 runs.  Both offenses will get to face southpaws, and both offenses have lit up left-handed starters this season.

The Angels have shown surprising depth in their lineup despite losing some key players to injury.  They have quietly scored 4 runs or more in 11 of their last 15 games overall while averaging 5.2 runs per game in those 15 games.  Los Angeles is hitting .294 and scoring 6.3 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.

The Guardians are scoring 4.9 runs per game this season and have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last 10 games overall.  Cleveland is hitting .271 and scoring 6.1 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.

Logan Allen is 5-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 10 starts this season and the OVER is 8-2 in his 10 starts.  Patrick Sandoval is 2-6 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 10 starts this season and the OVER is 6-3-1 in his 10 starts.  Sandoval is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in four home starts this season as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* NBA Western Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves were coming off their biggest win in franchise history by coming back from 20 points down in the 2H to beat the defending champion Denver Nuggets on the road in Game 7.  It was not a good spot for them in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks.

The Timberwolves looked flat and tired in Game 1.  I expect them to respond in a big way in Game 2 with a blowout victory.  Head coach Chris Finch will make the proper adjustments to slow down Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, who combined for 63 points in Game 1.

The Mavericks just don't have many players that can beat the Timberwolves outside Irving and Doncic.  So expect the Timberwolves to put more focus on these two and to have a lot more success defensively.  After all, they are the best defensive team in the NBA with their ability to protect the rim and their length on the perimeter.

Anthony Edwards in particular looked gassed in Game 1.  He will respond in a big way in Game 2.  The Mavericks don't have an answer for him defensively.  He will be in full on attack mode.  The Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression after shooting just 42.7% in Game 1 including 61.1% from the FT line.  The Mavericks shot 49.4% as a team and are due some negative shooting regression.

Minnesota is 11-2 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  The Timberwolves are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games when revenging a loss as a home favorite.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 27-9 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Minnesota is a resilient bunch that will respond in a big way tonight.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-145)

The Baltimore Orioles have massive advantages at the plate and on the mound today over the Chicago White Sox that will have them winning this game by multiple runs tonight.  The Orioles are scoring 4.9 runs per game this season while the White Sox are scoring 2.9 runs per game.

Corbin Burnes is 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Orioles.  He'll be opposed by Chris Flexen, who is 2-4 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in eight starts for the White Sox.  Flexen allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings of a 7-2 loss to the Yankees in his last start.

The Orioles are 29-8 in their last 37 games against AL teams that allow 4.9 or more runs per game and outscoring these teams by 2.2 runs per game.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Friday.

15* NL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Dodgers/Reds OVER 9.5

With temps in the 80's in Cincinnati tonight the ball should be flying out of hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.  Both offenses should have plenty of success at the plate against these two below-average starting pitchers to get 10 or more combined runs.

Graham Ashcraft is 2-1 with a 7.47 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in three home starts this season while allowing 13 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings.  He has control issues walking 9 batters in 14 innings in his last three starts.

James Paxton has been one of the luckiest starters in baseball.  He has a 2.84 ERA despite a 1.38 WHIP due to having 24 walks in 44 1/3 innings with only 24 K's.  He is due some negative regression, and he allowed 2 homers in 6 innings to the Reds in his last start.  The Reds get to see him again here 7 days later, and the Dodgers get to see Ashcraft again 6 days after just facing him.

The Dodgers are 17-6 OVER in their last 23 games after scoring one run or less.  Cincinnati is 14-3 OVER in its last 17 home games against an NL team with a .430 or better slugging percentage.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Pacers/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +9

The Indiana Pacers committed 21 turnovers and made 15 fewer free throws than the Boston Celtics and still should have beaten them in Game 1.  This series is clearly a lot closer than the oddsmakers suggest.

The Celtics got fortunate to catch the Miami Heat without Jimmy Butler and and a few others and the Cleveland Cavaliers without Donovan Mitchell and Jarett Allen and a few others.  They had an easy path to get here and are overvalued as a result.

The Celtics lost Game 2 outright at home to the Heat as 14.5-point favorites and Game 2 outright at home to the Cavaliers as 13-point favorites.  They tend to relax in these Game 2's at home, and have actually been better in the playoffs on the road than at home over the last couple seasons.  They don't have the kind of home-court advantage that these lines suggest.

The Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season right now and are healthy.  They won Game 6 116-103 at home over the Knicks and shot 53.8% as a team.  They won Game 7 130-109 as 2.5-point road dogs and shot 67.1% as a team.  They should have beaten the Celtics in their 133-128 Game 1 loss as 10-point dogs and shot 53.5% as a team.

The Pacers are an offensive juggernaut and have improved defensively in these playoffs.  They are also the deeper team, which makes it easier for them to handle this short turnaround than the Celtics.  Holiday played 48 minutes, Tatum 45, Brown 44, White 42 and Horford 40 in Game 1.  This is where not having Kristaps Porzingis really hurts them, especially with the Pacers attacking both Horford and Kornet with a ton of success.

I like how both Rick Carlisle and Tyrese Haliburton took responsibility for the Game 1 loss.  That will endear them to the rest of the players on this team, and I expect them to fire back with another big effort in Game 2 to try and even this series.  Each of the last three meetings between the Celtics and Pacers were decided by 5 points or fewer this season.  Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Thursday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-140)

The Baltimore Orioles will be highly motivated for a victory today after getting swept by the St. Louis Cardinals last series.  It was the first time the Orioles have been swept in 107 series, which spanned more then two years.  That just shows the kind of resiliency this team has.

Now the Orioles will get right in blowout fashion against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Chicago White Sox, who are 15-34 this season and hitting just .217 while scoring 2.9 runs per game.  Injuries to their best hitters have kept the White Sox struggling at the plate.  They are 1-5 in their last six games overall and have been held to 3 runs or fewer in all five losses.

Grayson Rodriquez will shut down the White Sox today.  Rodriquez is 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA in seven starts this season.  He has fired 11 2/3 shutout innings in his last two starts coming in.  Rodriquez fired 6 shutout innings in a 9-0 victory over the White Sox in his last start against them.

Mike Clevinger is 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in three starts this season and working his way back from injury.  He is averaging just 3.8 innings per start and will be on a pitch count again, meaning the Orioles will get into Chicago's bullpen early.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Tigers -104

The Detroit Tigers will be highly motivated for a victory after getting swept by the Kansas City Royals last series to drop their 4th consecutive game.  I expect them to get back on track at home tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Tigers have a big advantage on the mound behind the underrated Jack Flaherty.  He has gone 1-3 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in nine starts this season with a whopping 72 K's in 54 2/3 innings.  Flaherty has never lost to the Blue Jays, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in two career starts against them, both of which came last season.  He allowed one earned run in 11 innings in those two starts.

Kevin Gausman is one of the more overrated starters in baseball.  He is 2-3 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He has been particularly poor of late, allowing 9 earned runs and 21 base runners in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Rays and Twins.  Bet the Tigers Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-130)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the Arizona Diamondbacks that should lead to them winning this game by multiple runs.  The Dodgers also have a hatred for the Diamondbacks after getting swept by them in the playoffs last year to add to their motivation.

Tyler Glasnow is 6-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 10 starts this season with 81 K's in 62 innings.  I expect him to shut down the Diamondbacks and he hasn't faced them since 2017, so he will have the element of surprise working in his favor.

Ryne Nelson is one of the worst starters in baseball, going 2-3 with a 7.06 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Nelson has allowed 23 earned runs, 4 homers and 55 base runners in 29 1/3 innings.  The Dodgers will hang a big number on him tonight.

Los Angeles is 58-24 in its last 82 games off a loss, and 29-7 off a loss by 4 runs or more while outscoring opponents by 2.7 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* Mavericks/Timberwolves TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 206.5

Defense is the No. 1 reason both the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves have made it to the Western Conference Finals.  The Timberwolves have been the best defensive team in the NBA all season, and the Mavericks have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA since trading for Gafford and Washington.

The Timberwolves allow nothing at the rim with Gobert, Reid and Towns, and they have elite length on the perimeter in Edwards, McDaniels and Alexander-Walker.  They match up very well with the Mavericks as their length on the perimeter will give Doncic and Irving troubles.

The Mavericks allow nothing at the rim with Gafford and Lively protecting the paint.  This has made life much easier on them because Doncic and Irving are defensive liabilities.  But the Mavericks can hide these two on Conley and McDaniels most likely.

The Timberwolves just held the Nuggets to an average of 80 points per game in winning each of their last two games in this series.  The Mavericks held the Thunder to 101 points or fewer in three of their final four games.  Both teams will struggle to get to 100 in Game 1 tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Cubs OVER 8.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Cubs and Braves tonight.  Temps will be in the 60's with 13 MPH winds blowing out to right-center inside hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.

Justin Steele has battled injury this season and just hasn't been himself.  Steele is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA in four starts.  He has been particularly poor in his last two, allowing 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 9 2/3 innings in consecutive losses to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates.

Max Fried is 3-2 with a 3.81 ERA in nine starts for the Braves this season.  I think he's a little overrated because he has just 39 K's in 49 2/3 innings and pitches to contact.  He allowed 3 earned runs and 12 base runners in 4 1/3 innings to the Padres in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Tampa Bay Rays -125

I love the spot for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the Boston Red Sox and will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep.  The Rays are 14-2 in their last 16 games off a loss to a division opponent as a home favorite.

Ryan Pepiot has been impressive for the Rays this season, going 3-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in seven starts with 41 K's in 36 2/3 innings.  This will be his first career start against the Red Sox, which will work in his favor with the element of surprise.

Brayan Bello has a 4.79 ERA in four road starts this season while allowing 6 homers in 20 2/3 innings.  Bello does not enjoy facing the Rays, going 1-3 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in five career starts against them.  Bet the Rays Wednesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Angels/Astros OVER 9

The Houston Astros are heating up at the plate.  They have scored 6 or more runs in six of their last 10 games overall and are averaging 6.0 runs per game during this stretch.  They are capable of covering this total on their own.

The Angels have shown surprising depth in their lineup despite losing some key players to injury.  They have quietly scored 4 runs or more in 11 of their last 14 games overall while averaging 5.4 runs per game in those 14 games.

Hunter Brown is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 1-4 with an 8.63 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Brown allowed 4 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-4 loss to the Angels in his lone career start against them.

Tyler Anderson has given up a lot of hard contact this season and is fortunate to have a 2.72 ERA as a result.  He is due some negative regression.  That will come today against Houston.  Anderson is 0-2 with a 7.34 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in seven career starts against the Astros.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of an 11-3 defeat in his last start against Houston.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Diamondbacks/Dodgers OVER 8.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers are scoring 5.5 runs per game at home this season and 5.6 runs per game against right-handed starters.  They can cover this total on their own, but should get plenty of help from the Diamondbacks, who are scoring 4.8 runs per game on the road this season.

Brandon Pfaadt is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  Pfaadt is 1-3 with a 4.17 ERA in nine starts this season and 0-1 with a 4.70 ERA in four road starts.  Pfaadt is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers.

Gavin Stone is due some regression after going 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in eight starts for the Dodgers this season.  He doesn't have great 'stuff' with just 29 K's in 44 innings and gives up a lot of hard hit balls.

The OVER is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last four games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all four.  The OVER is 15-4 in Dodgers' 19 home games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs this season.  There are expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to right-center tonight as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pacers/Celtics OVER 221.5

Let's compare this total to the totals in the five regular season meetings between the Celtics and Pacers.  The totals were set at 234 in Game 1, 245.5 in Game 2, 249.5 in Game 3, 247 in Game 4 and 246 in Game 5.  Now this total is 221.5 for Game 1 of this playoff series.  That fact alone shows there is value with the OVER.

The Pacers and Celtics combined for 253, 266, 219, 234 and 259 points in their five meetings this season.  They have averaged 246.2 combined points per game in their five meetings this season, which is roughly 25 points more than this 221.5-point total.

The Celtics have had the luxury of facing two banged up teams in the Cavaliers and Heat who were missing their best players and multiple players.  Now they have to take on a healthy Pacers team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating.  The Celtics rank 1st in the NBA in offensive rating, and this is going to be a shootout type of series because of it, especially in Game 1.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Angels/Astros OVER 8.5

The Houston Astros are heating up at the plate.  They have scored 7 or more runs in five of their last nine games overall and are averaging 6.0 runs per game during this stretch.  They are capable of covering this total on their own.

The Angels have shown surprising depth in their lineup despite losing some key players to injury.  They have quietly scored 4 runs or more in 10 of their last 13 games overall while averaging 5.5 runs per game in those 13 games.

Griffin Canning is 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in nine starts for the Angels this season, including 0-4 with a 6.64 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in four road starts.  Canning is 0-2 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in six career starts against the Astros.

Cristian Javier has allowed 7 earned runs, 2 homers and 12 base runners in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against two of the worst lineups in baseball in the A's and Tigers.  The OVER is 6-1 in Javier's seven career starts against the Angels.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Cardinals OVER 9

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Orioles and Cardinals tonight.  Temps will be in the 90's with 20 MPH winds blowing out to left at Busch Stadium in St. Louis tonight.

The Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own against Lance Lynn, who is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 1-2 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-0 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in four home starts.  Lynn is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 12 earned runs and 24 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Baltimore.

But the Cardinals are swinging the bats better than they have all season right now.  They are scoring 6.4 runs per game in their last seven games and should do enough off Kyle Bradish to contribute.  The OVER is 11-1 in Cardinals last 11 games overall and 7-0 in Cardinals last seven games overall.  The OVER is 11-1 in Lynn's last 12 starts vs. good power teams that average 1.25 or more homers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles -140

The Baltimore Orioles have a big advantage on the mound and at the plate over the St. Louis Cardinals today which is why I'm willing to lay -140 on them.  The Orioles are scoring 5.0 runs per game while the Cardinals are scoring just 3.9 runs per game this season.

Kyle Bradish is 0-0 with a 2.63 ERA in three starts this season while allowing just 4 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings with 17 K's.  Bradish held the Cardinals to 2 earned runs in 7 innings with 11 K's in his lone career start against them in a 5-3 victory.

Lance Lynn is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 1-2 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-0 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in four home starts.  Lynn is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 12 earned runs and 24 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Baltimore.

Baltimore is a perfect 9-0 after losing two of its last three games this season.  The Orioles are 8-0 in Bradish's last eight road starts against teams that average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game.  Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs +110

The Chicago Cubs have a massive rest advantage over the Atlanta Braves tonight.  The Braves had to play a double-header against the San Diego Padres on Monday, while the Cubs had Monday off and were able to stay at home after hosting Pittsburgh over the weekend.

The Cubs also have the advantage on the mound behind Javier Assad, who has the best ERA in baseball since June of last season and is arguably the single-most underrated starter in the league.  Assad is 4-0 with a 1.49 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four home starts.

Assad is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in two career starts against the Braves.  He just pitched 6 shutout innings with 7 K's in his last start against Atlanta on May 15th of a 7-1 victory as a +170 road underdog.  Assad has allowed one earned run or fewer in six consecutive starts now, and 2 earned runs or fewer in 10 consecutive starts.

Morton allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 3 innings of that 7-1 defeat to Assad and the Cubs on May 15th.  Morton fell to 4-8 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 19 career starts against Chicago.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 16 base runners in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Cubs.

The Cubs are 11-3 (+13.2 Units) in Assad's last 14 starts as an underdog.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Cincinnati Reds +107

The Cincinnati Reds have a big rest advantage over the San Diego Padres today and should not be home underdogs as a result.  The Padres just played a double-header against the Atlanta Braves on Monday, while the Reds had Monday off.

I also believe the Reds have the advantage on the mound tonight behind Andrew Abbott, who is 2-4 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Abbott has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts this season.  He held the Padres to one earned run in 7 2/3 innings with 12 K's in his lone career start against them last season.

Joe Musgrove is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He returned from injury this season and clearly still isn't right.  Musgrove is 3-3 with a 6.36 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in eight starts this season, allowing 29 earned runs and 10 homers in 41 innings.  Bet the Reds Tuesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Dodgers were swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the playoffs last year.  They haven't forgotten and will be looking for revenge all season on the Diamondbacks.  They outscored Arizona 19-8 in their first three meetings this season, and I expect them to win in a blowout at home tonight.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is 4-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Yamamoto fired 6 shutout innings in an 8-0 victory over the Diamondbacks on May 1st.

The Diamondbacks will be making this a bullpen game starting with opener Joe Mantiply, who won't go more than one or two innings in this one.  This is a poor Arizona bullpen with a 4.60 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the season.  The Dodgers should hang a big number on Mantiply and this bullpen tonight.

The Dodgers are 19-3 in their last 22 May home games and outscoring opponents by 3.2 runs per game in this spot.  Los Angeles is 45-12 in its last 57 home games off three or more consecutive wins.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday.