25* MLB Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Blue Jays/Mariners OVER 7.5

After combining for 13 runs in Game 2, the Blue Jays and Mariners topped it in Game 3 with 17 combined runs.  The books have failed to adjust this total up high enough, and we'll take advantage by backing the OVER 7.5 in Game 4 in what is my strongest over/under release of the playoffs to this point.

Hitters proved that Seattle is not exactly a pitcher's park last night.  These teams combined for 26 hits and 8 homers in Game 3.  The starting pitcher matchup is even worse in Game 4, and both of these bullpens have now been exposed and hitters will know what to expect from every reliever they see.

Max Scherzer is washed, going 5-5 with a 5.19 ERA in 17 starts this season, including 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA in seven road starts.  Scherzer has been a disaster down the stretch, allowing 21 earned runs and 6 homers in 19 innings in his last five starts for a 9.95 ERA during this stretch.

Luis Castilo is 12-8 with a 3.42 ERA in 33 starts this season and lasted just 4 2/3 innings in his lone playoff start against the Tigers.  Castillo does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, going 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in two starts against them in 2025 while allowing 8 earned runs and 21 base runners in 10 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Steelers/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +5.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are 2-4 after four consecutive losses.  They are 2.5 games behind the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) but actually in second place in the division due to the struggles of the Ravens and Browns.  I think the Bengals will be 'all in' tonight as this is their last stand if they want any chance of winning the division.

The Bengals have played four of their first six games on the road against a tough schedule.  Even their two home games were tough, but they played well in both games beating the Jaguars 31-27 and losing to the Lions by 13 as 10.5-point dogs while only getting outgained by 43 yards.  This game Thursday night is the start of three consecutive home games for the Bengals.  The next two they host the Jets and Bears, so they could easily get on a 3-game winning streak here and get to 5-4 on the season and back in contention in the division.

The Steelers are overvalued after a 4-1 start to the season.  Last week, they had a huge rest advantage over the Browns who were coming back from London, while the Steelers were off their bye week.  I backed the Steelers in that game because of it and they delivered with a 23-9 win over Dillon Gabriel and the Browns, a rookie making his first career road start.

The Steelers have been far from impressive in their two road games this season.  They should have lost to the Jets in Week 1, winning 34-32 despite getting outgained 394 to 271, or by 123 total yards.  And we've seen how bad that win has aged considering the Jets are 0-6 now.  Their 21-14 win at New England was even more of a miracle considering they were outgained 369 to 203 by the Patriots, or by 166 total yards.  But they were +5 in turnovers including two turnovers at their 1-yard line when the Patriots were going in to score.

The Steelers may be the luckiest team in the NFL to this point.  They have actually recovered 83% of available fumbles, and you would expect that to be closer to 50% for every team in the NFL.  They have the numbers of a team that would be closer to 1-4 than 4-1.  The Steelers only average 277.8 yards pre game on offense and allow 355.6 yards per game on defense, actually getting outgained by 78 yards.

The Bengals were in a brutal spot last week starting Joe Flacco on a short week and facing a rested, pissed off Green Bay Packers team coming off their bye week.  They actually trailed by just 6 points late in the 4th quarter and had a chance to win that game as 14-point road underdogs.  Evan McPherson missed two FG's in that game as well, even one where he made it before a Packers timeout took it off the board as he went on to miss the ensuing try.

This might be the best set of weapons of Flacco's career, and he can get it done when he has weapons and should be more comfortable in the new offense this week.  He threw for 219 yards and 2 TD without an interception against a very good Packers defense on the road, and now he should be much more comfortable at home this time around.  He got the ball to those weapons as Chase finished with 10 receptions for 94 yards and a TD while Higgins had 5 receptions for 62 yards.  Their chemistry should be even better this week against a Steelers secondary that has some holes, allowing 245 passing yards per game and 65.8% completions to opposing QB's despite facing Justin Fields and Dillon Gabriel.

Mike Tomlin is 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in Thursday night road games in his career as the head coach of the Steelers.  He has been dreadful as a road favorite in his career as well.  Tomlin is 13-26-1 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more since 2017.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Bengals and 'sell high' on the Steelers this week.  Bet the Bengals Thursday.

15* Tulsa/ECU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53.5

There are going to be a ton of possessions in this game between Tulsa and East Carolina tonight.  Tulsa ranks 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.9 seconds, while ECU ranks 8th snapping it every 22.6 seconds.  This is a rare matchup between two teams that rank Top 10 in tempo, and this total of 53.5 is very short because of it.

East Carolina has played a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in its last three games against BYU, Army and Tulane.  I think the Pirates will open things up similar to when they scored 38 points against Coastal Carolina in the game prior, and I fully expect them to get 38-plus in this one to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 53.5 ticket.

Tulsa has also faced a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in their last two games against Tulane and Memphis.  This is a step down in class for them.  They also have a first-year head coach in Tre Lamb, so getting a bye week before this game will be big for the offense.  They will install some new plays and have several new wrinkles for ECU, while also playing a lot more efficiently than they have to this point.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings and would be 5-0 in the last five meetings against this total.  The Pirates and Golden Hurricane have combined for 69, 56, 64, 73 and 79 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  They have combined for at least 56 points in nine of their last 10 meetings as well, making for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 53.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Blue Jays/Mariners ALCS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

The Toronto Blue Jays ranked near the top of baseball in hitting on the road against right-handed starters since the All-Star Break.  They will get their bats going tonight, and the Mariners should stay hot at the plate in a game that should easily top 7 combined runs.

The Mariners put up 10 runs to cover the total on their own in Game 2, and they should do more damage here against Shane Bieber.  He is 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA in eight starts this season, and 2-1 with a 4.29 ERA in four road starts.  Bieber allowed 3 runs and 6 base runners in 2 2/3 innings in his lone playoff start.

George Kirby is 10-8 with a 4.10 ERA in 25 starts for the Mariners this season, including 2-3 with a 4.76 ERA in his last 10 starts.  Kirby does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, going 0-1 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in three career starts against them while allowing 10 earned runs and 25 hits in 14 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Delaware -2.5

The Delaware Blue Hens are the better team tonight and have a massive rest and preparation advantage over Jacksonville State, so they should be more than 2.5-point road favorites in this matchup.  We'll take advantage as this is one of my favorite plays in college football this week.

Delaware has proven it belongs at the FBS level with a 3-2 start to the season that could easily be 4-1.  They beat FIU 38-16 as 4.5-point road dogs while also upsetting UConn 44-41 as 8.5-point home dogs.  They deserved to win in a 27-24 loss to Western Kentucky as 2.5-point favorites as they outgained the Hilltoppers by 97 yards, but gave up a INT return TD and missed the tying FG.  They were only outgained by 2 yards on the road by Colorado in their other defeat.

Jacksonville State is 3-3 this season with the wins coming against Liberty, Sam Houston State (by 2) and Murray State.  They also lost to UCF, Southern Miss and Georgia Southern.  They have played an extremely easy schedule, and they were fortunate to beat Sam Houston State (0-6) last time out 29-27.  They needed a 52-yard FG at the buzzer to escape with a victory over that terrible squad.

Now Jacksonville State has to play Delaware on only 5 days' rest after playing last Thursday.  Meanwhile, Delaware is coming off a bye week and has had 11 days in between games to get ready for this one.  No question they will be prepared to stop the Gamecocks, who rely heavily on the run and are a very poor passing team.

Delaware has been solid stopping the run, allowing 154.8 yards per game and 4.5 per carry against teams that average 195 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry, holding them to 40 yards per game and 0.9 per carry less than their season averages.

The Blue Hens have good balance on offense rushing for 146 yards per game and throwing for 280 yards per game.  They are a stronger passing team, and that makes this a great matchup for them as the Gamecocks allow 7.9 yards per attempt against teams that only averaging 6.7 yards per attempt, allowing 1.2 yards per attempt more than their opponents average coming in.  Bet Delaware Wednesday.

20* Dodgers/Brewers NLCS No-Brainer on OVER 7

Nerves were a problem for hitters in Game 1 of this series last night in a 2-1 pitcher's duel.  We saw the same thing in Mariners/Blue Jays Game 1 which was a 3-1 final.  But just like the hitters calmed down and mashed in Game 2 for 13 combined runs yesterday in Mariners/Blue Jays, hitters will calm down and come to life in Game 2 of this series tonight.

Both starting pitchers are coming off concerning results.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto allowed 3 earned runs in 4 innings of a 8-2 loss to the Phillies in his last start.  Yamamoto allowed 5 runs, 3 earned, and 6 base runners in 2/3 of an inning in his lone career start against Milwaukee, a 9-1 defeat.

Freddy Peralta allowed 5 earned runs, 3 homers and 12 base runners in 9 2/3 innings in two starts against the Cubs last series.  Peralta allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings of a 8-7 win over the Dodgers in his last start against them on July 19th.  

The Brewers already have a taxed bullpen after using 6 relievers last night.  The Dodgers blew through their two best relievers in closer Sasaki and setup man Treinan last night in trying to close out a shaky 9th inning after 8 brilliant innings from Blake Snell.  I expect both teams to have to use some of their worst relievers tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Bills/Falcons ESPN No-Brainer on Atlanta +5.5

The Atlanta Falcons may be the most underrated team in the NFL right now.  They had the fluky 30-0 loss to the Carolina Panthers where they kept turning the ball over deep in Carolina territory that is keeping them undervalued.  They actually outgained the Panthers by 108 yards and held them to 224 yards in the loss.

In fact, the Falcons have some of the best numbers in the NFL through four games despite their 2-2 record.  They rank 7th in totla offense at 362.8 yards per game and gain 5.6 yards per play, while ranking 1st in total defense at 244.0 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 119 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play this season.

Michael Penix Jr. came back with a big performance after that loss to the Panthers in leading the Falcons to a 34-27 home victory over the Commanders.  That win was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed as well as they gained 435 yards and allowed just 296 yards, outgaining the Commanders by 139 yards.  Penix Jr. went 20-of-26 for 313 yards and 2 TD against the Commanders, who have proven to have a very good defense this season.

The Bills are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL.  They are 4-1 this season but it has been far from impressive.  They were lucky to beat the Ravens overcoming a 15-point deficit in the final quarter to win by 1.  They took advantage of a Jets team that had QB Justin Fields knocked out early with a concussion in Week 2.  They were on the verge of losing to the Dolphins who had a chance to tie it late at home as 11.5-point favorites before a red zone INT.  And they were life and death in the 4th quarter with the lowly Saints as 14.5-point home favorites.

Their luck ran out last week as they were upset 23-20 as 8-point home favorites by the New England Patriots.  Drake Maye torched their defense for 273 passing yards, and this defense is the reason I think the Bills are overrated.  The Bills rank 18th in the NFL allowing 5.7 yards per play, and that has come against one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses especially the last four weeks against the Pats, Saints, Dolphins and Jets.

This is a big step up in class for this Buffalo defense against an Atlanta offense that has no weaknesses.  The Falcons should be able to match the Bills score for score in this one.  The spot really favors the Falcons as they are coming off their bye week, while the Bills are coming off that physical division game against the Patriots last week.  This line suggests the Bills would be favored by 7 over the Falcons on a neutral, and there's just not that much separating these two teams.  This is a game Atlanta can win outright.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

20* MNF TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Falcons OVER 47.5

Both the Falcons and Bills have benefited from playing an easy schedule of opposing offenses and quarterbacks this season.  That fact has kept this total lower than it should be, and I fully expect both offenses to have their way with these two defenses Monday night in a shootout in perfect conditions in the dome in Atlanta.

The Bills rank 3rd in scoring offense at 30.6 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 395.6 yards per game and 5th at 6.3 yards per play.  The Falcons rank 7th in total offense at 362.8 yards per game and are loaded with playmakers for Michael Penix Jr., who led the Falcons to a 34-27 home win over the Commanders for 61 combined points going into his bye week.

The Bills have faced the Patriots, Saints, Dolphins and Jets the last four weeks, which are four of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Falcons have faced Marcus Mariota and the Commanders, Bryce Young and the Panthers and JJ McCarthy and the Vikings in their last three games.  It's safe to say both defenses will be taking a big step up in class this week, and it should lead to a back and forth shootout as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Mariners/Blue Jays ALCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The Seattle Mariners played their first series against the Detroit Tigers in pitcher-friendly ball parks both at home and on the road.  Now they get to play in a hitter-friendly park in Toronto for at least half of the games in this series, including Game 2 tonight.

Toronto and New York combined for 11 and 20 runs in their two games in Toronto last series.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Blue Jays and Mariners this season with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six, including 11 and 12 combined runs in the two regular season meetings in Toronto.  The Blue Jays score 5.0 runs per game while the Mariners score 4.7 runs per game this season as these are two of the best offenses in the American League.

I think hitters were battling the nerves in Game 1 of this series which saw just 4 combined runs.  I think they will settle in for Game 2, and we will see much more of a slug fest in this one.  I also think the starting pitchers these lineups will face are much more hittable in Game 2 as well.

The Blue Jays will go with rookie Trey Yesavage, who will be making just his 5th start of the season and will obviously be nervous.  The Mariners will go with Logan Gilbert, who has huge home/road splits this season.  Gilbert is 4-4 with a 4.59 ERA in 13 road starts.  He is 0-2 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in six career starts against Toronto, allowing 20 earned runs, 8 homers and 49 base runners in 34 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Lions/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City ML -130

The Kansas City Chiefs have really transformed into a juggernaut offensively the last two weeks thanks to getting Xavier Worthy back healthy and in the lineup.  Their pass rate has skyrocketed since his return, and this is the most explosive the Chiefs have looked on offense in a few years.

Worthy made his return in a 37-20 home win over the Ravens two weeks ago.  He led the team with 5 receptions for 83 yards while also leading the team in rushing with 38 yards.  He came back with 6 receptions for 42 yards in a 31-28 loss to the Jaguars last week.  The Chiefs racked up 476 total yards in a very misleading defeat.  They ougained the Jaguars by 157 yards, but the difference was a 99-yard pick 6 by the Jaguars when the Chiefs were going in to score.

The Chiefs should be able to move the ball through the air at will on a banged up Detroit defense that is missing several key pieces in the secondary.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR, they will be without starting CB Terrion Arnold, and starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are both questionable.  Arnold's backup CB Avonte Maddux is questionable as well.

Jake Browning torched this banged up Lions secondary for 21 points in the 4th quarter alone last week, so you can just imagine what Mahomes and company are going to be able to do against this Detroit defense.  I love the fact that the Chiefs lost last week to fall to 2-3, so they will be extra motivated coming into this one.  They still have one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL and this is going to be an even bigger advantage for them in a Sunday night primetime game.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Detroit Lions after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have had some very misleading blowout wins and have feasted on a very weak schedule of Chicago, Baltimore, Cleveland and Cincinnati.  They only outgained Cleveland 277 to 249 at home, or by 28 yards.  They only outgained Cincinnati 365 to 322, or by 43 total yards.

This will be Detroit's toughest test by far since a 27-13 road loss to Green Bay in the opener.  While the Lions are 'fat and happy' off four straight convincing wins, the Chiefs are pissed off after losing a game they should have won against the Jaguars.  Patrick Mahomes has been elite in this spot as the Chiefs are 29-12-1 ATS in his career when favored by 3 points or less or as an underdog.  Bet the Chiefs on the Money Line Sunday night.

20* Mariners/Blue Jays ALCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The Seattle Mariners played their first series against the Detroit Tigers in pitcher-friendly ball parks both at home and on the road.  Now they get to play in a hitter-friendly park in Toronto for at least half of the games in this series, starting with Game 1 tonight.

Toronto and New York combined for 11 and 20 runs in their two games in Toronto last series.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Blue Jays and Mariners this season with 9 or more combined runs in all five, including 11 and 12 combined runs in the two meetings in Toronto.  The Blue Jays score 5.01 runs per game while the Mariners score 4.7 runs per game this season as these are two of the best offenses in the American League.

The Mariners depleted their pitching staff by needing to go 15 innings to beat the Tigers 3-2 in Game 5 on Friday.  This is a quick turnaround for their staff, and now they are forced to throw their worst starting pitcher in Game 1 in Bryce Miller.  The Blue Jays should crush Miller, who is 4-6 with a 5.61 ERA in 19 starts this season.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings to the Blue Jays in his lone start against them this season.

Kevin Gausman is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He is 6-5 with a 3.73 ERA in 17 home starts this season.  Gausman allowed 3 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his lone start against Seattle this season.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 17 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Mariners.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bengals/Packers OVER 44

The Packers return from their bye week looking to take out their frustration on the Cincinnati Bengals.  I expect most of that frustration to be taken out on offense, where the Packers should score at will against one of the worst defenses in the NFL to pave the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Packers went into their bye week in a 40-40 shootout tie with the Cowboys and 80 combined points.  Their offense should be even better out of the bye with a return to health along the offensive line.  There's a good chance they get LT Rasheed Walker, LG Aaron Banks and RT Zach Tom back in the lineup this week.  They remain without DT Devonte Wyatt defensively, a loss that is felt even more after trading away DT Frank Clark to the Cowboys.

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team due to their poor defense and all of their talent on offense, even without Joe Burrow.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 61 points with Detroit, 58 with Minnesota and 58 with Jacksonville.  They rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game and 30th in total defense allowing 391.2 yards per game.

Cincinnati has seen enough of Jake Browning, so it decided to trade for veteran Joe Flacco early in the week.  Christmas came early for Flacco getting out of Cleveland and their lack of weapons.  Now he gets to work with one of the best sets of weapons in the NFL led by WR Chase, WR Higgins and RB Brown.  He will get the most out of the weapons on hand, especially with his ability to throw the deep ball and open up more big plays in the passing game for this offense.

The Packers will score in the 30's or more in this one, and the Bengals will be able to get 14-plus to contribute to us cashing this OVER 44 ticket with ease.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cowboys/Panthers OVER 48.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 5-0 to the OVER this season instead of 3-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1H with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their three OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants and 80 combined points with the Cowboys to sail OVER those totals.  This total of 48.5 is too low for a game involving the Cowboys right now.

The Cowboys rank 1st in total offense at 406.6 yards per game and 4th in scoring offense at 30.2 points per game despite some key injuries on offense.  The Cowboys rank dead last (32nd) in total defense at 412 yards per game, 30th at 6.3 yards per play allowed and 29th in scoring at 30.8 points per game.  The loss of Micah Parsons has been felt, and they are without LB Overshown, LB Sanborn, FS Hooker and both starting CB's in Bland and Diggs are questionable for this game.

The Panthers are getting healthier on offense and have some real talent on that side of the ball.  McMillian and Legette are two great receivers, and now TD Ja'Tavion Sanders is expected to return this week.  Jalen Coker was Bryce Young's favorite target last season, and he could make his season debut this week as he returned to practice from IR.  Rico Dowdle rushed for 206 yards in place of Chuba Hubbard last week, and now he is going to want revenge on his former team in the Cowboys and should be in line for another big game.

The Panthers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall and if not for a fluky shutout win against Atlanta where the Falcons kept turning the ball over deep in Carolina territory, it would be 4-0.  They went for 51 combined points with Miami, 49 with Arizona and 55 with New England.  So this total of 48.5 is also pretty low for a game involving the Panthers right now.  Both teams have very poor defenses that will be exposed by two underrated offenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Ravens OVER 45

This total has been adjusted too low for the fact that Lamar Jackson is out for the Baltimore Ravens.  I would argue the defensive injuries for the Ravens are just as, if not more impactful to the Ravens' performance in this game.  We'll take advantage of the extra value and back the OVER 45 Sunday as they host the Los Angeles Rams.

The Ravens are pretty much fully healthy on offense outside of Lamar.  QB Cooper Rush is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL.  Rush hasn't had the kind of weapons to work with that he will have in the Ravens.  This offense is absolutely loaded and remains one of the best offenses in the NFL even with Rush at QB.  He should be much more comfortable in his 2nd start in this offense this week.

The injuries on defense are much more daunting.  The Ravens will be without LB Roquan Smith, CB Chidobe Awuzie, and DE Nnamdi Madubuike, and they just traded away LB Odafe Oweh.  It's no wonder the Chiefs finally got their offense going scoring 37 points against this Baltimore defense two weeks ago.  And a previously dead Houston offense came to life last week scoring 44 points on 417 total yards against the Ravens.

The Ravens have arguably the worst defense in the NFL in their current state.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 35.4 points per game and 31st in total defense at 408.8 yards per game.  If the Chiefs and Texans can torch this defense for 37 and 44 points, respectively, you can just imagine what this high-octane Rams offense is going to do to them this week.

The Rams rank 2nd in total offense at 401.8 yards per game and 2nd at 6.5 yards per play.  This despite playing a pretty tough schedule of opposing defenses in the Texans, Titans, Eagles, Colts and 49ers to this point.  This will be by far the worst defense they have faced this season.

The Rams are 3-1 OVER in their last four games and would have gone OVER this total of 45 in all four.  They combined for 49 points with the 49ers, 47 with the Colts, 59 with the Eagles and 52 with the Titans.  Mac Jones torched them last week for 26 points, the Colts had two TD's taken off the board, the Eagles torched them for 33 points, and even the Titans put up 19 points against this defense that has clearly taken a step back this season.  

The Ravens are 5-0 OVER in all games this season combining for 81 points with Buffalo, 58 with Cleveland, 68 with Detroit, 57 with Kansas City and 54 with Houston.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5

This might be the toughest spot that any NFL team has to face this entire season.  For the first time in NFL history, an NFL team will be traveling back from London while having to go back on the road without having a bye week.  It's safe to say the Browns are completely gassed and won't have anything left in the tank for the Steelers, who are off their bye week to boot.

I've been looking to fade the Steelers early in the season because they aren't as good as their 3-1 record.  However, a big reason for that was because they were so banged up on defense.  But now they return from their bye week a lot healthier on defense, and this should get back to being one of the best defenses in the NFL which is the case every year under Mike Tomlin.

The Steelers were previously playing without LB Alex Highsmith, FS DeShon Elliott and CB Joey Porter Jr.  Now all three are back in the lineup this week, and the Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL coming out of their bye.  Aaron Rodgers will be even more comfortable in the new offense with his receivers and is primed for a big game here.

The Browns just lost to a depleted Vikings team that was missing three starters on the offensive line with Carson Wentz at QB.  He actually torched their previously dominant defense despite the offensive line limitations and his mobility limitations.  Rodgers gets the ball out of his hands as fast as any QB in the league, which will negate Cleveland's biggest strength in their pass rush.

This Cleveland offense is atrocious, and rookie Dillon Gabriel will be making his first career road start here.  Mike Tomlin is 30-6 SU in his career against rookie QB's, including 16-1 at home with the lone loss coming to Dak Prescott in 2016.  The Browns rank dead last (32nd) in scoring at 14.6 points per game, 27th in total offense at 288.2 yards per game and 31st at 4.5 yards per play this season.  Tomlin and this healthy Steelers defense will make life miserable on Gabriel for four quarters.

The Steelers have won 8 consecutive games coming off their bye week.  They are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven regular season games off a bye.  The Steelers are 21-0 SU in their last 21 regular season home meetings with the Browns.  Their domination of Cleveland continues this week given the massively favorable spot they are in.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seahawks/Jaguars OVER 44

The Seattle Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team right now due to all their injuries in the secondary.  They will be without three starters in the secondary again this week as CB Devon Witherspoon, CB Riq Woolen and FS Julian Love are all out for a second consecutive week.

Those injuries led to an absolute shootout last week as the Seahawks lost 38-35 at home to the Bucs for 73 combined points.  The Seahawks went for 463 yards but they allowed 426 yards to the Bucs.  Sam Darnold had one of the best games of his career to keep the Seahawks in it, going 28-of-34 for 341 yards and 4 TD in the loss.

The Bucs were without several of their best weapons and still torched this Seattle secondary as Baker Mayfield went 29-of-33 passing for 379 yards and 2 TD.  Now Trevor Lawrence will be in line for one of the best games of his career, especially playing with the confidence of leading the Jaguars to a 31-28 upset win over the Chiefs last week.

Lawrence went 18-of-25 passing for 221 yards and a TD while also leading the team with 54 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.  He is getting more and more comfortable in Liam Coen's offense, and keep in mind he led the Jaguars to a 26-21 upset win at San Francisco the week prior.  Those are two great defenses he just torched, and now he will be taking a big step down in class here against this Seattle defense in its current state.

After facing an easy schedule of opposing offenses through the first four weeks of the season, the Jaguars were torched for 476 total yards and 28 points by the Chiefs last week.  You can bet Darnold and this Seattle offense are going to have similar success here today in what will be a big-time shootout with both offenses ahead of both defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Broncos/Jets NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Denver -7

Note: I also love a 6-point teaser with the Broncos -1/Rams -1 Sunday.

The Denver Broncos are 3-2 but could easily be 5-0.  They let the Colts off the hook, turning a 2-point win into a 1-point loss after getting a leverage penalty when the Colts missed the game-winning 60-yard FG.  The Colts proceeded to make it from 45 at the buzzer.  They also lost a back-and-forth road game with the Chargers, 23-20.

The Broncos have the numbers of a team that should be 4-1 or better.  They rank 10th in total offense at 355.2 yards per game and 5.6 per play on offense, and they rank 2nd in scoring defense at 16.8 points per game and 5th in total defense allowing 288.6 yards per game.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL and a shutdown corner in Patrick Surtain who will take away the New York Jets' only real weapon at receiver in Garrett Wilson.

The Jets are an absolute dumpster fire this season.  They are the only remaining winless team at 0-5 this season.  They were just blown out by an injury-ravaged Cowboys team 37-22 at home last week, a Cowboys team playing without 3 starting offensive linemen and two of their best weapons on offense in Lamb and Turpin.  Bo Nix and company should torch this Jets defense that ranks 31st in scoring allowing 31.4 points per game.

Justin Fields is 0-26 as a starter when his defense allows 20 or more points.  The Jets are going to allow much more than 20 points in this one.  Fields is so predictable as he just cannot beat teams with his arm.  And now with Surtain taking away Wilson, this Jets offense is even in more of a world of hurt.  Wilson has been targeted just 7 times in 3 career games against Surtain, finishing with 3 receptions for 34 yards and a INT by Surtain.  Backup receivers Irvin Charles and Alan Lazard are out for this one, and losing RB Braelon Allen is a big blow as the Jets had a great 1-2 punch with him and Breece Hall in the backfield prior.

Denver's 21 sacks lead the NFL entering Week 6.  14 of the 21 sacks have come without blitzing.  Their 84 sacks in 2024 were 22 more than the next-closest team.  The Jets have allowed 16 sacks, which is the fourth-most in the league.  They have lost 132 yards on those sacks, the 2nd-highest mark in the league.  They will once again have too many negative plays that will kill them offensively this week as Fields continues to hold onto the ball too long.

Sean Payton is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in international games in his career covering the spread by an average of 12 points per game in those two games.  I love that he has experience with it, while rookie head coach Aaron Glenn looks like he is in over his head already and won't have his players ready to handle the travel as well as Payton will.

Favorites are 37-14-1 SU & 33-19 ATS in international games.  The Broncos have actually had no problem blowing out opponents over the last two seasons, which is why I'm willing to lay this big of a number.  In fact, the Broncos are 13-9 SU in the regular season over the last two seasons with 12 of those 13 wins coming by 8 points or more!  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona +2.5

The Arizona Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Brent Brennan was dealt a tough hand in his first season last year, but he is proving his meddle largely due to having 16 returning starters and the players he wants in place this season.

The Wildcats have opened 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming in their lone road game at Iowa State, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  It was also a misleading final as they were only outgained by 39 yards by the Cyclones.

But the Wildcats are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 28.2 points per game and outgaining them by 241 yards per game and 3.1 yards per play.  That includes their misleading 23-17 win over Kansas State in which they were much more dominant than the final score showed.  They outgained K-State 412 to 193, or by 219 total yards.

BYU is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to facing the 89th-ranked schedule in the country and opening 5-0 against it.  They have padded their stats with home wins over WVU, Stanford and Portland State.  They had a misleading road win at ECU, and they only beat Colorado by 3 on the road.  This road trip to Arizona will be by far their toughest test of the season, and I don't think they should be favored here.

This will be a great atmosphere as Arizona fans are excited about this team, and it's a night game in Tucson with kick set for 8:00 EST Saturday night.  Arizona's defense is elite, allowing 15.6 points per game, 245.4 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  BYU will be without senior LB Jack Kelly and could be without S Thomas Prassas.  This BYU defense allowed 24 points to West Virginia last week, which was playing with 3rd-and-4th string QB's and missing two of their top playmakers on offense.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* Michigan/USC NBC No-Brainer on USC ML -135

Everyone is off USC now after losing 34-32 at Illinois and it's now time to 'buy low' on the Trojans.  But there were a ton of factors that contributed to that loss that are getting overlooked.  They were playing their 5th consecutive week, were coming off a late-night home win against Michigan State, and had to travel out East for a 9:00 AM body clock game at Illinois.  

Lincoln Riley has been notoriously poor traveling East at USC.  To make matters worse, there was a bout of food poisoning running through the locked room the night before.  It even kept their green dot on defense in S Kamari Ramsey out of that game, and their defense struggled without him and their top CB.  Both should be back this week.  LT Elijah Page was out as well, so they had to completely shuffle around their offensive line.  WR Ja'Kobi Lane only played 30 snaps in the loss.

Now the Trojans are back home and coming off a bye week, so they will be much healthier against Michigan State.  They are much more comfortable at home going 3-0 and scoring 59.0 points per game while allowing just 21.3 points per game.  For the season, the Trojans rank 3rd in scoring offense at 48.4 points per game, 4th in total offense at 565 yards per game and 1st at 8.5 yards per play.

QB Jayden Maiava is having a Heisman-caliber season completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,587 yards with an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 4 scores.  Waymond Jordan is averaging 7.0 yards per carry while rushing for 537 yards and 5 scores.  Makai Lemon is one of the best receivers in the country with 35 receptions for 589 yards and 5 TDs.  Having Lane healthy moving forward will make this USC offense that much more potent as he is the clear No. 2.

Michigan had to play last week in a lackluster 24-10 home win over Wisconsin.  That's the same Wisconsin team that has been blasted by Alabama and Maryland this season.  In their two road games thus far, Michigan has looked very average losing 24-13 at Oklahoma and coming away with a fortunate 30-27 win at Nebraska.  I would argue this will be their toughest road test yet.

No question freshman QB Bryce Underwood will be good eventually, but he is working with a laughable group of receivers at Michigan that has the case of the drops and just simply lacks the talent that you would expect from a program with the resources the Wolverines have.  USC is going to score at will, and I don't trust this Michigan offense to be able to keep up enough to pull off the upset.  We are getting the Trojans cheap at home due to that loss to Illinois two weeks ago.  Bet USC on the money line Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Michigan/USC OVER 57.5

USC is a dead nuts OVER team going 4-1 OVER in its five games this season.  The Trojans and their opponents have combined for at least 66 points in four of their five games this season, so this total of 57.5 is pretty short for a game involving USC.  They have gone for 76, 79 and 86 combined points in their three home games.

The Trojans are much more comfortable at home going 3-0 and scoring 59.0 points per game while allowing just 21.3 points per game.  For the season, the Trojans rank 3rd in scoring offense at 48.4 points per game, 4th in total offense at 565 yards per game and 1st at 8.5 yards per play.

QB Jayden Maiava is having a Heisman-caliber season completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,587 yards with an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 4 scores.  Waymond Jordan is averaging 7.0 yards per carry while rushing for 537 yards and 5 scores.  Makai Lemon is one of the best receivers in the country with 35 receptions for 589 yards and 5 TDs.  No. 2 receiver Ja'Kobi Lane has missed some time this season, but he is now fully healthy coming out of the bye and this offense will be even more potent moving forward.

USC's weakness is against the run, and that will get exploited by this Michigan rushing offense that is averaging 240.4 yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry.  The Wolverines have opened up the playbook for freshman 5-star QB Bryce Underwood, and he's using his legs more now.  The Wolverines will put up plenty of points on this USC defense to contribute to us cashing this OVER 57.5 ticket.  

While Michigan has solid numbers defensively, the Wolverines have played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in New Mexico, Oklahoma, Central Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin.  And they gave up 270 passing yards to Oklahoma and 308 to Nebraska.  They haven't faced a passing attack nearly as potent as this USC outfit, and their defense will get exposed Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Clemson/Boston College ACC No-Brainer on OVER 54

This Boston College defense is atrocious.  The Eagles just allowed 48 points to Pittsburgh and a freshman QB making his first start for the Panthers last week.  They are now allowing 31.6 points per game after also giving up 28 to Cal, 30 to Stanford and 42 to Michigan State in their three games prior to Pitt.

Clemson is a lot healthier on offense now than they were at the start of the season.  The Tigers still have a great offense averaging 6.0 yards per play against teams that only allow 5.3 yards per play on average.  They have averaged nearly 500 yards per game in their last two games against Syracuse and UNC, and they should hang a big number on this BC defense that could be without four starters due to injury.

Boston College has a lot of talent on offense and can do some damage against this overrated Clemson defense.  Sophomore QB Dylan Lonergan has been solid, completing 67.4% of his passes for 1,277 yards with a 9-to-3 TD/INT ratio while running Bill O'Brien's offense.  The Eagles and Lonergan will be forced to keep up in a shootout with Clemson scoring at will.  Both teams like to play fast with BC ranking 26th in tempo and Clemson 42nd.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UAB/FAU OVER 69.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams in UAB and Florida Atlantic square off Saturday in what should be one of the biggest shootouts of the week.  Florida Atlantic ranks 1st in tempo snapping the ball every 21 seconds.  UAB also prefers to play fast ranking 44th in tempo snapping it every 25.1 seconds.

FAU runs a pass-happy offense throwing for 318.4 yards per game on 48.4 attempts per game.  UAB is also pass-happy averaging 307.8 passing yards per game on 39 attempts.  The Blazers average 6.6 yards per play on offense and allow 6.6 yards per play on defense with one of the worst defenses in the country.  UAB allows 39.0 points per game while FAU allows 33.4 points per game with also one of the worst defenses in the land.

The last meeting between FAU and UAB saw 87 combined points and 1,098 total yards with a 45-42 win by the Blazers.  It should be more of the same in the rematch this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas/Tennessee OVER 68

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in tempo snapping the ball every 21.1 seconds.  The Volunteers are 5-0 OVER in all games this season finishing with 71 combined points against Syracuse, 89 against East Tennessee, 85 against Georgia, 80 against UAB and 75 against Mississippi State.  This total of 68 is actually short for a game involving Tennessee right now.

That's especially the case when you consider the opponent in Arkansas, another dead nuts OVER team that is 4-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Razorbacks also don't mind playing fast ranking 52nd in tempo, and they now have an offensive-minded head coach as Bobby Petrino takes over as the interim for Sam Pittman moving forward.

Tennessee plays fast and efficiently on offense, scoring 51.0 points per game while averaging 537.4 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play on offense.  Joey Aguilar is a Heisman trophy sleeper, completing 65% of his passes for 1,459 yards with a 13-to-5 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for a pair of scores.  This Tennessee defense is allowing 29.0 points per game and has taken a big step back this season, largely due to injuries at the CB position.

Arkansas has an elite offense scoring 37.4 points per game while averaging 517.2 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play this season.  But the defense has been atrocious, allowing 30.0 points per game and 6.2 yards per play.  The Razorbacks allowed 41 points and 481 yards to Ole Miss, 32 points and 493 yards to Memphis and 56 points and 641 yards to Notre Dame in their last three games coming in.  They will be forced to try and keep up in another shootout here as the Razorbacks aren't going to slow down this Volunteers offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +2

Kansas State was a favorite to win the Big 12 coming into the season.  But the Wildcats have opened 2-4, though they could easily be 6-0.  Their four losses came by 1, 3, 3 and 6 points.  Now they are home underdogs to TCU Saturday, and it's time to 'buy low' on the Wildcats.

TCU is 4-1 this season but the road win at UNC to open the season doesn't look nearly as good now, and they lost their other road game 27-24 at Arizona State.  That was a misleading final as the Horned Frogs were outgained 500 to 261 by the Sun Devils, or by 239 total yards.  They were also sluggish last week at home against a bad Colorado team, winning 35-21 only after a TD pass on 4th down in the final seconds to turn a 7-point game into a 14-point game.  They were +4 in turnovers against Colorado yet still only led by 7 in the final seconds.

TCU will get exposed by a pissed off Kansas State team this week.  The Wildcats will have their full compliment of receivers for the first time this season.  They put up 34 points and 501 total yards on Baylor last week, and they should shred this TCU defense as well.  This pass-happy TCU offense will struggle to move the ball on a K-State defense that only allows 208.3 passing yards per game despite playing a tough schedule of opposing pass offenses.

Kansas State averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and allows 5.2 yards per play on defense, and they are 0.8 yards per play better on both sides of the ball than their opponents allow on average.  TCU has a solid offense at 6.5 yards per play, but their defense allows 5.7 yards per play against team that average 5.7 per play.  So they are mediocre defensively.

Kansas State owns TCU, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ball State +9

I've been very impressed with the improvement of the Cardinals in their last three games after two blowout road losses to Purdue and Auburn to open the season against a brutal schedule.  They came back in Week 3 and beat a very good FCS team in New Hampshire 34-29 at home.  They racked up 413 total yards in that win.  

Then in Week 4 they nearly upset UConn in a 31-25 road loss as 21-point dogs.  They put up 404 total yards on the Huskies and actually outgained them as well.  They got a much-needed bye in Week 5, and used it to their advantage by coming back with a 20-14 upset homer win over Ohio as 14.5-point dogs.  Holding that high-powered Ohio offense to just 14 points is a huge accomplishment.  The Cardinals are now 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and one of the most underrated teams in the MAC.

This Ball State offense has shown life the last three games and will be able to put up enough points to keep this game competitive.  Senior QB Kiael Kelly is completing 60.8% of his passes while also rushing for 266 yards and two scores.  Junior RB Qua Ashley has rushed for 316 yards and 3 TD while averaging 4.9 per carry.  These are solid numbers especially when you consider the Cardinals have faced the 50th-toughest schedule in the country and some very good defenses.

Western Michigan has faced a slightly softer schedule that ranks 60th.  And I just don't think the Broncos should be favored by more than a TD here when you consider how poor their offense is.  The Broncos are scoring 19.7 points per game, averaging 294.5 yards per game and just 4.4 yards per play.  They cannot throw the ball, and they are an inefficient running team averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on 41.2 carries per game.  They were shut out by Illinois, managed just 14 points against Toledo and just 21 points against a UMass defense that is absolutely atrocious.  They won't be able to get margin here.

Western Michigan is also a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week, while Ball State had a bye two weeks ago and is the much fresher team.  That is a hidden factor here that isn't being factored into the line enough.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Air Force/UNLV OVER 65

Air Force is a service academy so oddsmakers have failed to adjust their totals up high enough for being a dead nuts OVER team.  They have failed to do so again this week against UNLV, another dead nuts OVER team.  This game will be playing in perfect scoring conditions in the dome at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, too.

Air Force is 5-0 OVER in all games this season combining for 62 points with Bucknell, 79 with Utah State, 86 with Boise State, 79 with Hawaii and 65 with Navy.  The Falcons have one of their best offenses in program history scoring 36.4 points per game, averaging 468 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  They have really thrived since finding their QB of the future in sophomore Liam Szarka, who has throwing for 846 yards and 7 TD while averaging 13.0 per attempt, while also rushing for 449 yards and 6 TD on 5.9 per attempt.

But the Falcons have their worst defense in program history, which is the reason they are such a dead nuts OVER team.  They allow 37.8 points per game, 478.8 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play this season.  You just watch them and can see that they have no team speed on defense, and they keep giving up explosive play after explosive play.  They are going to continue to get torched by UNLV this week.

UNLV is scoring 35.6 points per game and averaging 6.4 yards per play this season.  But the Rebels are allowing 26.0 points per game and 6.0 yards per play despite facing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in Wyoming, MIami Ohio, UCLA, Sam Houston State and Idaho State.  I mean they allowed 38 points to Miami Ohio and 31 to Idaho State.  Now they are facing the best offense they will have faced all season by a wide margin in Air Force.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Maryland +7

The Maryland Terrapins are 4-1 this season including a 27-10 road win at Wisconsin as 10-point dogs.  They covered in their lone loss in a 24-20 setback as 5.5-point home dogs to Washington last week.  They blew a 17-0 lead to the Huskies, and they will come back highly motivated for a win this week as they get to stay home and take on Nebraska.

Nebraska is also 4-1 but has benefited from a home-heavy schedule with four home games and a 'neutral' game at Arrowhead Stadium against Cincinnati that was essentially a home game as well.  This will be their first true road game, and the Huskers are 2-8 SU in true road games under Matt Rhule.  The Huskers have no business being a full 7-point road favorite in this game.

Maryland is only allowing 13.4 points per game and 4.3 yards per play defensively this season, holding opponents bo 10.4 points per game and 1.0 yards per play below their season average.  The Terrapins are averaging 30.0 points per game on offense, and freshman 5-star QB Malik Washington has been impressive with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 3 scores.

Nebraska has struggled to run the ball the last two weeks gaining 43 yards on 31 carries against Michigan and 67 yards on 31 carries against Michigan State.  They won't be able to run the ball on Maryland, either, and their predictability being too pass-happy makes them easier to contain.  The Terrapins only allow 2.6 yards per carry and 5.9 per pass attempt this season.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Northern Illinois/Eastern Michigan OVER 47

Eastern Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team due to having one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Eagles allow 35.7 points per game, 476 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  I know Northern Illinois has one of the worst offenses in the country, but this EMU defense is going to make the Huskies look like they have one of the best.  This total of 47 is too short for a game involving Eastern Michigan.

A big reason for NIU's offensive struggles is due to playing one of the toughest schedules of opposing defenses.  Their last four games have come against Miami Ohio, San Diego State, Mississippi State and Maryland.  This is a huge step down in class for NIU, and they will easily put up their most points of the season Saturday.

Eastern Michigan does have a pretty solid offense scoring 25.0 points per game while averaging 377.5 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  They should have plenty of success as well against this tired NIU defense that will be playing for a 4th consecutive week and has been on the field a lot this season.

NIU and Eastern Michigan have combined for at least 47 points in eight of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pitt/Florida State OVER 57.5

Florida State is a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Seminoles rank 5th in scoring at 46.8 points per game, 5th in total offense at 560.8 yards per game and 9th at 7.5 yards per play.  Making those numbers even more impressive is the fact that the Seminoles have played two of the best defenses in the country already in Miami and Alabama.  Gus Malzahn has made a big difference calling plays, and the Seminoles rank 16th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.7 seconds.

Pitt likes to play even faster than FSU ranking 15th in tempo at 23.7 seconds per play.  So this game is going to see a ton of possessions.  And I love the move Pitt made last week benching Eli Holstein in favor of electric freshman QB Mason Heintschel.  He went 30-of-41 passing for 323 yards and 4 TD in leading the Panthers to 48 points in a win over Boston College.  Heintschel should be able to keep up with FSU in a shootout in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Alabama/Missouri ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +3

Missouri is one of the most underrated teams in the country and should not be a home underdog to the Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday.  That's especially the case when you consider the massive scheduling advantage working in their favor, which isn't being factored into this line enough.

Missouri had a bye last week after blasting UMass 42-6 at home two weeks ago.  They have basically had three full weeks to prepare for Alabama, and they will be ready.  This will be a raucous home atmosphere Saturday afternoon in Columbia.

This is a terrible spot for Alabama.  The Crimson Tide upset Georgia on the road two weeks ago, then got revenge last week in a 30-14 win over Vanderbilt that was much closer than the final score suggests.  They scored on their final offensive play to salt it away with only seconds remaining, and that came after Vanderbilt committed two red zone turnovers.  I question how much the Crimson Tide have left in the tank.

Missouri is averaging 45.2 points per game, 547.6 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 14.6 points per game, 198.2 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play on defense.  That equates to outscoring opponents by 31 points per game, outgaining them by 350 yards per game and 3.0 yards per play.  Those numbers are absolutely elite.

People are quick to forget that Alabama lost 31-17 at Florida State in the opener.  That loss looks even worse now after Florida State went on to lose to Virginia and Miami.  The 3-point win over Georgia also doesn't look great as that Georgia team is down a few notches this season.  And the Crimson Tide have clear weaknesses in the trenches that will get exposed this week.

Alabama allowed 260 rushing yards to Florida State in the opener, and they allowed 8.0 yards per carry against Georgia and Vanderbilt the last two weeks.  Now they must face arguably the best RB in the country in Missouri's Ahmad Hardy, who has rushed for 730 yards and 9 TD with a nation-leading 570 yards after 1st contact and 46 broken tackles.  Missouri will get what it wants on the ground.

Alabama simply cannot run the football averaging 127.2 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  That makes them very predictable, and Missouri has two of the best edge rushers in the country to put pressure on QB Ty Simpson, who has been great this season but hasn't faced a defensive line as dominant as Missouri's yet.

Eli Drinkwitz is 10-3 ATS as a home underdog at Missouri.  The Tigers are 19-1 SU at home over the last three seasons with one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They outgained Kansas by 369 yards and outgained South Carolina by 163 yards in their two toughest home games thus far this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Stanford/SMU OVER 55

SMU ranks 39th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 25 seconds.  The Mustangs really profile as an OVER team with a solid offense and mediocre defense.  They are scoring 34.0 points per game and averaging 6.3 yards per play, but they are allowing 437 yards per game and 5.6 per play this season.  They allowed 48 points and 601 yards to Baylor and 35 points and 519 yards to TCU.

Stanford's offense has come to life the last three games putting up 30 points and 399 yards against Boston College, 20 points and 323 yards against Virginia and 30 points and 481 yards against SJSU.  QB Ben Gulbranson is coming off his two best games of the season.  He went 29-of-43 for 444 yards and 2 TD against San Jose State and 20-of-29 for 286 yards and 2 TD against Virginia.  This Stanford offense is humming right now and will continue to play well against SMU this week.

Stanford's defense is allowing 29.4 points per game, 429.4 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  That includes 315 passing yards per game and 66.7% completions, and SMU should have a big day through the air.  The Cardinal will be without leading tackler Matt Rose (40 tackles) at linebacker.  SMU QB Kevin Jennings is completing 71.4% of his passes for 1,411 yards and 13 TD.

Both offenses have been trending very pass-happy because they cannot run the football, which is what you want for OVERS.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation in Dallas this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Stanford +19.5

I love the spot for Stanford.  The Cardinal are coming off a bye week with a first-year head coach in Frank Reich, and teams with first-year head coaches always benefit more from bye weeks.  This is a team headed in the right direction with wins over Boston College and San Jose State in two of their last three games with a road loss at Virginia in between, so they are showing great improvement.

Now the Cardinal are primed for their best effort of the season coming off the bye.  QB Ben Gulbranson is coming off his two best games of the season.  He went 29-of-43 for 444 yards and 2 TD against San Jose State and 20-of-29 for 286 yards and 2 TD against Virginia.  This Stanford offense is humming right now and will continue to play well against SMU this week.

SMU is one of the most overrated teams in the country after making the 12-team playoff last year.  Expectations were high coming into this season, and oddsmakers have failed to adjust them down enough for their poor play this season.  The Mustangs are 3-2 SU & 0-5 ATS this season.  They won by 39 as 51-point favorites against Texas A&M CC, lost outright at home to Baylor as 3-point favorites, only won by 18 as 28.5-point favorites at Missouri State, lost by 11 as 6.5-point dogs at TCU and only beat Syracuse by 13 as 17.5-point favorites last week.

That was a Syracuse team coming off a 38-3 loss to Duke that was down to a second-string QB in Rickie Collins, who just hasn't been effective.  Collins threw 3 INT against SMU yet the Mustangs still only managed to win by 13 points.  SMU has a huge road game at Clemson on deck next week in a ACC Championship Game rematch that the Mustangs could be caught looking ahead to as well.  Either way, this 19.5-point spread is too high.  Bet Stanford Saturday.

20* Rutgers/Washington FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Rutgers +11

Rutgers has a massive rest/scheduling advantage over Washington Friday night that isn't being factored into this line enough.  The Scarlet Knights are coming off a bye week getting two full weeks to prepare for this game, which is huge coming off physical games against Iowa and Minnesota that resulted in close losses by 10 and 3 points.  They were pissed off during their bye week and will come out with their hair on fire to try and get that first conference win this week.

This is an absolutely brutal spot for Washington.  The Huskies beat Washington State in the Apple Cup three weeks ago, lost 24-6 at home to Ohio State two weeks ago, then had to travel clear across the country to Maryland last week.  They used a lot of energy overcoming a 17-0 deficit to beat the Terrapins 24-20.  They then had to travel clear back across the country and are on a short week to boot with this being a Friday night game.  It's safe to say they won't have nearly as much energy as Rutgers will this week, and they will be less prepared than the Scarlet Knights to boot.

Rutgers has one of the most underrated offenses in the country.  The Scarlet Knights are scoring 39.0 points per game and averaging 6.0 yards per play this season.  They put up 28 points on both Iowa and Minnesota, which are two of the better defenses in the Big Ten.  They also put up 45 points on Miami Ohio, probably the best defense in the MAC.  No question they are going to be able to move the football and score points on this tired Washington defense, so they will never be out of this game with this offense.  Bet Rutgers Friday.

25* MLB Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Mariners +126

Once again, Tarik Skubal is getting too much respect from oddsmakers as a big road favorite over the Seattle Mariners in a winner-take-all Game 5.  The Tigers have the worst offense left in the playoffs, and their bullpen is very shaky as well.

Plus, the Tigers are 0-3 in Skubal's three starts against the Mariners this season!  Skubal is 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA in three starts against Seattle in 2025, allowing 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 17 2/3 innings.  Getting to see him for a 4th time already this season is a huge advantage to Seattle's hitters, which are much more potent than that of Detroit.

George Kirby is 5-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13 home starts this season with 81 K's in 71 2/3 innings.  Kirby went 5 innings with 8 K's and 2 earned runs allowed in Game 1 of this series against the Tigers.  But those 2 earned runs should have never happened as the home plate ump missed strike 3 on the same batter that homered and was responsible for those 2 earned runs as he should have been out of the inning.

The Mariners were able to rest their best relievers in Game 4 due to the blowout nature of their loss to the Tigers.  They are set up well here with Kirby, followed by their two best relievers in Matt Brash (2.52 ERA) and closer Andres Munoz (1.64 ERA) to close this out once he departs.  Bet the Mariners in Game 5 Friday.

20* USF/North Texas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 67.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams in South Florida and North Texas square off Friday night in what should be one of the most entertaining shootouts of the week.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout as well with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation in Denton Friday night.

South Florida ranks 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.8 seconds.  Despite facing a brutal schedule of opposing defenses including Boise State, Florida and Miami, the Bulls are still scoring 36.2 points per game, averaging 446 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.  They are averaging 12 points per game, 103 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average.

North Texas ranks 19th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds.  The Mean Green are scoring 44.8 points per game, averaging 437 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  They are averaging 18 points more per game than their opponents allow on average this season.

The OVER is 3-0 in USF's last three games overall combining for 61 points with Miami, 77 with South Carolina State and 80 with Charlotte.  The OVER is 3-1 in North Texas' last four games overall combining for 58 points with South Alabama, 83 with Army, 69 with Washington State and 63 with Western Michigan.  Both Army and WMU are dead nuts UNDER teams that play slow and are run-heavy, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Eagles/Giants NFC East ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have no passing game and their rushing game has been non-existent as well.  The Eagles rank 30th in total offense at 261.6 yards per game and 29th at 4.7 yards per play.  They are averaging just 3.5 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per pass.

The New York Giants are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current state.  They are running the football more with a mobile QB in Jaxson Dart.  They went for 39 combined points with the Chargers and 40 with the Saints in his first two starts.  Making matters much tougher on Dart is the fact that he is without his two best weapons at receiver in Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton.  The Giants are scoring just 17.4 points per game this season ranking 28th in scoring offense.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Eagles and Giants with 33, 31 and 37 combined points.  This total of 42.5 has been set too high tonight, and we'll take advantage.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* ECU/Tulane ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53.5

The East Carolina Pirates are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in tempo snapping the ball every 22.3 seconds.  They are scoring 30.4 points per game, averaging 461 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They have a pass-happy offense that averages 315 passing yards per game and 8.3 yards per attempt.  This total of 53.5 is very low for a game involving East Carolina.

Tulane has a solid offense scoring 26.2 points per game and averaging 5.7 yards per play despite playing a very tough schedule of opposing defenses to this point that has included Ole Miss, Duke and Northwestern.  I think getting extra time for this game will work wonders for this Tulane offense considering former BYU QB Jake Retzlaff didn't transfer in until the fall.  The offense is a lot healthier too now especially along the O-Line.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, less than 10 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NLDS TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Dodgers OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles tonight.  These are two of the best offenses in baseball with unreliable bullpens, and there have been a lot of runs scored in the late innings in this series as a result.

Crispher Sanchez does not enjoy facing the Dodgers, posting a 4.91 ERA while allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 18 1/3 innings in three starts against them this season.  Those three starts saw 8, 15 and 15 combined runs going 3-0 to the OVER.  Getting to see Sanchez for a 4th time already this season is a big advantage to Dodgers hitters.

Tyler Glasnow has not pitched since September 27th and the Dodgers must have held him out this long for a reason.  Glasnow allowed 5 earned runs in 2 innings of a 8-7 loss to the Phillies in his lone start against them this season.  He has posted a 7.36 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in three career starts against Philadelphia, allowing 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 11 innings.  

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Dodgers and Phillies in Los Angeles.  Nine of those 10 meetings have seen 8 or more combined runs, so this total of 7.5 is pretty short for a game involving these two teams in L.A.  Bet the OVER in Game 4 Thursday.

15* CFB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Liberty/UTEP UNDER 48

The forecast and the pitiful nature of these two offenses are the reasons I'm on the UNDER 48 tonight between Liberty and UTEP in this Conference-USA showdown.  The forecast is calling for steady 15-20 MPH winds which will make passing the football very difficult, and both teams will be more run-heavy than they already are.

Liberty is scoring just 17.0 points per game while ranking 115th in scoring offense and UTEP is scoring just 20.8 points per game while ranking 11th in scoring offense.  Liberty is already a run-heavy offense averaging 40 rush attempts compared to 24 pass attempts per game.  They have a poor QB in Ethan Vasko, who is completing just 57.3% of his passes and averaging 2.8 yards per attempt rushing.

UTEP has been very disappointing with 5-star transfer QB Malachi Nelson, who has pretty much been a complete whiff.  Nelson is completing 55.6% of his passes with an 8-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  He also offers nothing on the ground averaging 0.1 yards per attempt on his 20 rushes.

UTEP has been surprisingly led by a defense that allows 26.6 points per game and 5.0 yards per play, holding opponents to 0.7 yards per play below their season averages.  Liberty is also better on that side of the ball, holding foes to 23.2 points per game on the season.

Liberty is 3-0 UNDER in its last three games combining for 36 points with Bowling Green, 44 with James Madison and 28 with Old Dominion.  UTEP went for just 37 combined points with Texas and 41 with LA Tech in two of its last three games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Blue Jays/Yankees ALDS No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

Two of the best offenses in baseball are squaring off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.21 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 5.01 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

These teams combined for 11 runs in Game 1, 20 runs in Game 2 and 15 runs in Game 3.  The Blue Jays and Yankees have now combined for at least 8 runs in 19 of their last 25 meetings.  This total of 8.5 is too low, especially with the forecast calling for sustained 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to to the short porch in right with gusts up to 25 MPH.

The Blue Jays blew through their bullpen yesterday while blowing a 6-1 lead, and now they are going to make this a bullpen game Wednesday.  The Yankees are familiar with all these relievers and should have another big night at the plate.

Cameron Schlittler has been pretty good against almost any team not named the Blue Jays.  But Schlittler is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 2.55 WHIP in two starts against Toronto this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 17 base runners in 6 2/3 innings.  The Yankees blew through their bullpen yesterday, too.  Bet the OVER in Game 4 Wednesday.

15* Mariners/Tigers ALDS Early ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +105

The Seattle Mariners got jobbed by the home plate umpire in Game 1 that allowed a 2-run homer by the Tigers to even happen and force extra by missing an obvious 3rd called strike on that same batter.  The Mariners showed tremendous resilience in Game 2, blowing a 2-0 lead by allowing 2 runs in the 8th before back-to-back doubles by their two best players in the bottom of the 8th in Raleigh and Rodriquez to win 3-2 as underdogs to Tarik Skubal, a game the Tigers had to have.  They carried that momentum into Game 3 with an 8-4 victory yesterday, and now I expect them to close out this series in Game 4 so they don't have to face Skubal again in Game 5.

Winning in Detroit has come quite easy for opponents down the stretch.  As the Tigers were choking away the AL Central, they have gone 0-8 in their last eight home games and haven't won a home game since September 6th!  Seattle is 8-1 in its last nine road games.  The Mariners have big advantages in the three key departments which is hitting, starting pitcher and bullpen. They should not be underdogs to the Tigers today.

Bryce Miller has absolutely owned the Tigers so it makes sense that he gets this start in Game 4.  Miller is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.58 WHIP in three career starts against Detroit, firing 19 shutout innings while allowing just 11 base runners.

Casey Mize is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA in two starts against the Mariners this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 11 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.  He is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two career home starts against Seattle, allowing 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 9 innings.  Bet the Mariners Wednesday.

20* ALDS TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 7.5

Two of the best offenses in baseball are squaring off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.19 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 5.01 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

These teams combined for 11 runs in Game 1 and 20 runs in Game 2.  The Blue Jays and Yankees have now combined for at least 8 runs in 18 of their last 24 meetings.  This total of 7.5 is too low, especially with the forecast calling for sustained 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left and gusts of up to 25 MPH.

Shane Bieber has lost his fastball and is 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA in seven starts this season, including 2-1 with a 3.93 ERA in three road starts.  Bieber is 2-2 with a 5.05 ERA in seven career starts against the Yankees, allowing 23 earned runs and 8 homers in 41 innings.

Carlos Rodon does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, going 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in his last five starts against them while allowing 18 earned runs and 44 base runners in 24 1/3 innings.  Both bullpens leave a lot to be desired, especially New York's.  Bet the OVER in Game 3 Tuesday.

20* ALDS GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -126

The Seattle Mariners got jobbed by the home plate umpire in Game 1 that allowed a 2-run homer by the Tigers to even happen and force extra by missing an obvious 3rd called strike on that same batter.  The Mariners showed tremendous resilience in Game 2, blowing a 2-0 lead by allowing 2 runs in the 8th before back-to-back doubles by their two best players in the bottom of the 8th in Raleigh and Rodriquez to win 3-2 as underdogs to Tarik Skubal, a game the Tigers had to have.  Now I think the Mariners take control of this series with a Game 3 win in Detroit.

Winning in Detroit has come quite easy for opponents down the stretch.  As the Tigers were choking away the AL Central, they went 0-7 in their final seven home games and haven't won a home game since September 6th!  Seattle is 7-1 in its last eight road games.  The Mariners have big advantages in the three key departments which is hitting, starting pitcher and bullpen.  They should be bigger favorites tonight.

Logan Gilbert is 6-6 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 25 starts this season with 173 K's and only 31 walks in 131 innings.  Gilbert is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three career road starts at Detroit, allowing just 3 earned runs in 17 innings.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings with 19 K's in two starts against the Tigers in 2025.

Jack Flaherty is washed up, going 8-15 with a 4.56 ERA in 32 starts this season.  He has posted a 4.22 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in four career starts against the Mariners, allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 30 base runners in 21 1/3 innings.  Bet the Mariners in Game 3 Tuesday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chiefs/Jaguars OVER 44.5

The Kansas City Chiefs will have a dangerous offense moving forward.  They just got Xavier Worthy back from injury last week, and promptly put up 37 points on the Ravens.  Patrick Mahomes threw 4 TD passes, Worth had 5 receptions for 83 yards and 2 carries for 38 yards, and this looked like one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Worthy just opens things up for everyone else.  Defenses have to account for his speed and also his ability to run the football.  Pretty soon the Chiefs will get Rashee Rice back from suspension and they will be virtually unstoppable on offense.

The Jaguars are a much more potent offense this season under head coach Liam Coen, who was behind Baker Mayfield's career year in Tampa Bay last season as their offensive coordinator.  Now he is working wonders on Trevor Lawrence, who would have even bigger numbers this season if his receivers didn't drop more passes than any other team in the league thus far.

Even with those drops, the Jaguars rank 16th in scoring at 24.0 points per game and 10th in total offense at 348.5 yards per game.  Lawrence is playing behind one of the most improved offensive lines in the NFL, one that is paving the way for the 4th-most rushing yards per game (144) and 5.0 yards per carry behind the one-two punch of Etienne and Tuten.  The Jaguars put up 26 points on the 49ers last week, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL.

The Jaguars have solid defensive numbers this season, but it is largely due to playing one of the weakest schedules of opposing defenses in the NFL.  They have faced the Panthers, the Bengals with Jake Browning, the Texans and the 49ers with all their injuries on offense.  This is a huge step up in class for their defense, and I expect them to get exposed for the mediocre unit that they really are Monday night against Worthy, Mahomes and this now potent KC offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Dodgers/Phillies TBS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

This total of 7.5 is too short in a matchup between two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.14 runs per game while the Phillies are scoring 4.79 runs per game this season.  Both offenses are basically fully healthy in this series, too.

The Dodgers showed what they were capable of offensively by blasting the Reds 10-5 in Game 1 and 8-4 in Game 2 at home.  They also showed their bullpen is a mess, and it will continue to be a mess in this series with the Phillies.

Blake Snell has huge home/road splits this season.  Snell is 0-3 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in four road starts.  He is 2-3 with a 3.89 ERA in eight career starts against the Phillies as well.

Jesus Luzardo is one of the most overrated starters in baseball, and the Dodgers should get to him early and often.  Luzardo is 15-7 with a 3.92 ERA in 32 starts this season, including 8-2 with a 4.16 ERA in 16 home starts.  He has benefited from tremendous run support this season, and that will likely be the case again today.

The Dodgers and Phillies have combined for at least 8 runs in seven of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Patriots/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England +8

The New England Patriots are buying into Mike Vrabel and he is getting the most out of them already in his first season on the job.  I still believe he's one of the best head coaches in the NFL in terms of getting the most out of his players.  And now they have a big opportunity to show the world on the national stage on NBC's Sunday Night Football.  I expect them to take full advantage.

The Patriots have great numbers averaging 25.5 points per game on offense and allowing 20.3 points per game on defense.  They have also been great on special teams, which is a staple of Vrabel-coached teams and a hidden advantage they have.  Drake Maye has taken that leap in Year 2, completing 74% of his passes for 988 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

The Buffalo Bills are 'fat and happy' after a 4-0 start.  They have been far from impressive.  They were lucky to beat the Ravens overcoming a 15-point deficit in the final quarter to win by 1.  They took advantage of a Jets team that had QB Justin Fields knocked out early with a concussion in Week 2.  They were on the verge of losing to the Dolphins who had a chance to tie it late at home as 11.5-point favorites before a red zone INT.  And last week they were life and death with the lowly Saints as 14.5-point home favorites.

While the Patriots are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL likely not being without a single starter this week, the Bills are banged up.  They have five defensive linemen who are out or questionable and two starting LB's questionable on defense.  RT Spencer Brown is questionable for this one as well.  The Bills are outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play, but they have played the league's easiest schedule to this point, too.

The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Bills pulling the outright upset at home last year, with their three losses coming by 3, 6 and 4 points.  This line should be less than a TD, so getting +8 with New England is a great value as I expect it to be decided by a single score either way.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* Tigers/Mariners FS1 No-Brainer on Seattle +120

I love getting the Seattle Mariners as home underdogs in this must-win spot after losing Game 1 yesterday.  This is another classic case of Tarik Skubal getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  The Mariners have the much better lineup and better bullpen that can overcome Skubal in Game 2.

I question how much Skubal has left in the tank after going 107 pitches against the Guardians in Game 1 last series.  Skubal has not enjoyed facing the Mariners this season, allowing 7 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in two starts against them for a 5.90 ERA.

I like that the Mariners are going with Luis Castillo in Game 2 tonight.  He has been much better at home than on the road, going 5-4 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 17 home starts this season.  Castillo is in a real groove to close out the season going 3-0 with a 1.07 ERA and 0.51 WHIP in his last four starts, allowing just 3 earned runs and 13 base runners in 25 1/3 innings.  He has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in five career home starts against Detroit.  Bet the Mariners in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Yankees/Blue Jays FS1 No-Brainer on OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.17 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 4.96 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

Rookie Trey Yesavage will be making just his 4th career start in this huge spot and I don't trust him to handle it very well, especially up against this potent New York lineup.  His first three starts came against the Rays (twice) and Royals, two of the worst lineups in baseball.  This is a huge step up in class for him today.

The Yankees really have extended Max Fried a lot here down the stretch throwing at least 100 pitches in five of his last six starts.  He's not used to this kind of workload, and I expect him to wear down as the playoffs progress.  Fried does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, allowing 11 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them since July 1st for a 5.40 ERA.

The OVER is 12-1-1 in the last 14 meetings between the Blue Jays and Yankees in Toronto with 9 or more combined runs in 13 of those 14 meetings.  This total of 8 is simply too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks ML -140

Both the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Bucs are 3-1 this season, but these 3-1 starts are not created equal.  The Seahawks have been dominant in their three wins, and they could be 4-0 but lost a coin flip game to the 49ers in Week 1.  The Bucs could easily be 0-4 as their three wins all came on game-winning drives from Baker Mayfield in the final seconds.

While the Seahawks are outscoring opponents by 11.0 points per game averaging 27.8 points per game on offense and allowing 16.8 points per game on defense, the Bucs are dead even in scoring margin.  Their three wins came by a combined 6 points, and their lone loss came by 6 points at home to the Eagles last week.

The Seahawks have the rest advantage after beating the Cardinals on the road last Thursday, and they are certainly the much healthier team heading into this one.  And it's the poor health of the Bucs that is is the biggest reason I am fading them this week.

The Bucs will be without six starters this week in WR Mike Evans, RB Bucky Irving, RT Luke Goedeke, RG Cody Mauch, CB Jamel Dean and DE Caljah Kancey.  Baker Mayfield continues to play through injury as his offensive line just can't protect him, and he's taking more hits than ever trying to extend plays with his legs.  The Bucs are also without key depth pieces in WR Jalen McMillan, CB Benjamin Morrison and SS Christian Izien.  They are without five guys in all in the secondary.

The Seahawks are without three starters on defense, but they are fully healthy on offense, and Sam Darnold is proving that his run with the Minnesota Vikings last year was no fluke.  I trust Darnold and this offense to be able to move the ball through the air with ease against this soft Tampa Bay secondary, and for this Seattle defense that has shown it has lots of depth and will make life tough on Mayfield.  

Seattle blitzes at the lowest rate in the NFL, consistently getting a pass rush with 4 guys and playing coverage behind it.  Mayfield is better against man-to-man schemes where he can use his legs.  Seattle will have a spy on him running at all times after watching film, and I expect a few interceptions from Mayfield trying to fit balls into tight windows in the zone.  He is due some turnovers as he has the most turnover-worthy plays of any QB in the NFL to this point.

The furthest flight in the NFL is from Tampa Bay to Seattle, and vice versa.  That makes this a tough road trip for the Bucs with the long travel.  Seattle still has one of the better home-field advantages in the NFL, especially when they are good, which is the case this season as they will be going for first place in the NFC West with a win here.  Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cowboys/Jets OVER 46

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have the 2nd-worst defense in the NFL and the 2nd-best offense in the NFL statistically.  They rank 31st in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game, 31st in total defense at 420.5 yards per game, 5th in scoring offense at 28.5 points per game and 2nd in total offense at 404.2 yards per game.

The Jets also have a terrible defense ranking 30th allowing 30.0 points per game this season.  Both offenses should have their way in this one, and this total of 46 is too low for a game involving the Jets and Cowboys.  The weather looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation in New York Sunday afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dolphins/Panthers OVER 45

The Dolphins and Panthers are both dead nuts OVER teams with awful defenses and respectable offenses.  This total of 45 has been set too low, especially with the forecast looking perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation in Carolina Sunday.

The Dolphins rank 26th in scoring defense allowing 29.5 points per game, 25th in total defense allowing 378.8 yards per game and 31st allowing 6.6 yards per play.  They remain without CB Storm Duck, and not having him is a big loss going up against one of the best rookie receivers in the NFL in Carolina's Tetairoa McMillan.

Carolina ranks 19th in scoring defense allowing 23.8 points per game, 19th in total defense at 327.5 yards per game and 25th at 5.9 yards per play.  They have even benefited from a fluky shutout win over the Falcons to pad those stats, plus the fact that they have been getting blown out in their other three games so opposing offenses have been very vanilla late in games against them protecting big leads.

This figures to be a competitive back and forth game with neither offense taking their foot off the gas.  Miami is currently a 1-point favorite over Carolina.  Injuries to this Carolina defense are a big reason Miami is favored on the road.  The Panthers will be without DE Tershawn Wharton and NB Chau Smith-Wade, plus LB D.J. Wonnum, DE LaBryan Ray and NT Came Jackson are all questionable.

I know the Dolphins will be without Tyreek Hill, but they just got TE Darren Waller into the lineup for the first time against the Jets last week and he made an immediate impact with two TD receptions from Tua.  Their chemistry will only keep getting better moving forward, and this offense still has plenty of playmakers to help make up for the loss of Hill.  The Dolphins have scored 27, 21 and 27 points in their last three games and should get in that ball park this week.

The Panthers have scored 22 and 30 points in two of their last three games and should be able to get in that ball park in this one as well.  I like the fact that both McMillan and Xavier Legette are healthy, which are Bryce Young's two best weapons.  And this will be the weakest defense that Young has faced yet this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos +4.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are fortunate to be 4-0 this season.  They are 4-0 in one score games.  They beat Dallas by 4 at home, Kansas City by 3 on the road, the Rams by 7 at home only after blowing a FG and returning it for a TD on the final play with a 1-point lead, and beat the banged up Bucs by 6 on the road last week.

The Eagles have the numbers of a team that should be 1-3 and not one that is 4-0.  They average 4.3 yards per play on offense and allow 5.5 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play.  I realize the tush push hurts the offensive YPP, but this is still a bad offense with little to no passing game averaging 138 passing yards per game and 5.5 per attempt.

The Broncos are 2-2 but could easily be 4-0.  They let the Colts off the hook, turning a 2-point win into a 1-point loss after getting a leverage penalty when the Colts missed the game-winning 60-yard FG.  The Colts proceeded to make it from 45 at the buzzer.  They also lost a back-and-forth road game with the Chargers, 23-20.

The Broncos have the numbers of a team that should be 3-1 or better.  They average 354.5 yards per game and 5.7 per play on offense, and allow 285.3 yards per game and 5.0 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 69 yards per game and 0.7 per play.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL and a shutdown corner in Patrick Surtain who will take away AJ Brown.

This looks like the letdown spot for the Eagles after four straight huge games.  They beat their division rival Cowboys in Week 1, had their Super Bowl rematch with the Chiefs in Week 2, had their NFC playoffs rematch with the Rams in Week 3, and last week were playing with double-revenge against the Bucs and got their revenge.  They won't be as motivated to beat the Broncos as they were those four teams, and they are 'fat and happy' after this 4-0 start.  The Broncos are motivated to beat the defending champs and it will show on the field.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans ML -130

The Ravens have arguably the worst defense in the NFL in their current state.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 33.2 points per game and 30th in total defense at 406.8 yards per game.  And it's going to be no surprise to see the Houston Texans finally get their offense going this week just like the Chiefs did last week.

The Ravens will be without LB Roquan Smith, CB Marlon Humphrey, CB Chidobe Awuzie, and DE Nnamdi Madubuike, plus S Kyle Hamilton (groin) and LB Odafe Oweh (eye) are both questionable.  It's no wonder the Chiefs finally got their offense going scoring 37 points against this Baltimore defense last week.

The Texans are coming off their best offensive output of the season scoring 26 points on what is a very good Tennessee Titans defense.  They had 353 total yards with a nice mix of run and pass, rushing for 129 yards and throwing for 224.  They found a RB with some explosiveness in Woody Marks, who had 17 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown, while also catching 4 balls for 50 yards and a score.  They have one of the deepest WR rooms in the league, and CJ Stroud should keep getting more and more comfortable with these new guys this week.

Now the Ravens are without QB Lamar Jackson who is worth as much to the point spread as any QB in the NFL.  The Ravens are off to a 1-3 start even with a healthy Jackson, and it's because he has been forced to try and keep up in shootouts due to an awful defense.  I like Cooper Rush as a backup, but it's a clear downgrade and the Ravens will be much easier to defend not having to worry about Lamar's dual-threat ability.

The Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 1st in scoring defense allowing 12.8 points per game, 6th in total defense allowing 280.5 yards per game and 7th at 4.9 yards per play.  This line has moved a lot, but it hasn't moved enough.  Houston is favored for good reason.  Bet the Texans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Jets +2.5

The New York Jets could easily be 2-2 instead of 0-4.  But that 0-4 record has them undervalued as home underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.  The Jets had a chance to win three of the four games they played this season with the exception of their 30-10 loss to the Bills in which they lost QB Justin Fields to a concussion in the 1H and never recovered.

The Jets outgained the Steelers 394 to 271, or by 123 total yards in their 34-32 loss in Week 1.  The Bucs needed a game-winning FG drive to beat them 29-27 at home with Tyrod Taylor at QB.  Fields returned last week in a 27-21 loss at Miami in which the Jets outgained the Dolphins 404 to 300, or by 104 total yards.  But they were -3 in turnovers and had 13 penalties, yet still had a chance to win late.  These are all errors that are easily correctable, and I expect a much more disciplined effort from the Jets this week as they are highly motivated for that first victory.

The Cowboys are coming off their 'Super Bowl' in a 40-40 tie with the Packers in the Micah Parsons revenge game.  They had to go an extra 10 minutes in OT and could still be feeling the after-affects of that tie.  They are certainly hurting in the injury department coming out of that game, which is one of the biggest reasons I'm fading the Cowboys here.

The Cowboys will be without WR CeeDee Lamb, LT Tyler Guyton, RG Tyler Booker, C Cooper Beebee and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  LG Tyler Smith is questionable, so they will be without at least three starters on the offensive line and two of their biggest playmakers.  They will also be without FS Malik Hooker who landed on IR after leaving that Packers game, and LB Kenneth Murray Jr. is questionable.  What a mess.

The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game, 31st in total defense at 420.5 yards per game and 30th allowing 6.5 yards per play.  They legitimately have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Jets have a competent defense allowing 330.3 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.  And Justin Fields is back and healthy and getting more comfortable in this new offense each week.  He and Breece Hall should have a field day on the ground against this Dallas defense.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* Duke/California ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Duke -2.5

The Duke Blue Devils have played a brutal schedule to this point that has them undervalued.  They have two losses already but have played the 22nd-toughest schedule in the country.  And both losses were misleading especially their loss to Illinois.  They also lost to Tulane on the road.  They outgained by Illinois and Tulane.

The Blue Devils have since bounced back with two impressive ACC wins beating NC State 45-33 as 3-point home favorites and crushing Syracuse 38-3 as 4-point road favorites.  They have elite numbers averaging 7.3 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play.

California is overvalued after a 4-1 start against a much softer schedule that ranks as the 62nd-toughest.  The Golden Bears have the numbers of a .500 team averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play.

The four wins have come against Oregon State, Texas Southern, Minnesota and Boston College.  They got to play Minnesota without its best player, Oregon State is still winless on the season, and Boston College also lost to Stanford.

California is a tired, banged up team right now.  The Golden Bears will be playing for a 6th consecutive week after back-to-back road games at San Diego State and at Boston College.  They lost 34-0 at San Diego State, and that loss isn't aging very well.  Then they had to travel clear across the country to Boston College last week, before flying back across the country to return home for this game.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank for Duke, which will test its tired legs playing at the 21st-fastest tempo in the country.

Duke has a chance to open 3-0 in ACC play and will be tied for first in the conference with a win Saturday night.  They have a bye on deck next week, so they will be fully focused looking to go into their bye perfect in the conference.  The Blue Devils are the better team and this is a short number for them to be laying Saturday night.  Bet Duke Saturday.

15* Tulsa/Memphis ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on OVER 56.5

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22 seconds.  They have a poor defense, and they will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout against an elite Memphis offense that is going to be able to name its number here Saturday.

The Tigers rank 16th in scoring at 39.6 points per game.  They are coming off consecutive shootout wins 32-31 over Arkansas for 63 combined points and 55-26 over FAU for 81 combined points.  FAU also plays at a similarly fast tempo as Tulsa.

Against the two offenses Tulsa faced with pulse, they allowed 42 points and 465 total yards to Navy and 31 points and 438 total yards to Tulane.  Memphis is averaging 247.2 rushing yards per game and 6.0 per carry, and should run wild on a Tulsa defense allowing 179.2 rushing yards per game.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings with 60 or more combined points in six of those eight meetings.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain in Memphis tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Miami/Florida State ABC No-Brainer on Florida State +5

The Miami Hurricanes are overvalued after playing a home-heavy schedule and catching some teams in some bad spots for them.  They caught Notre Dame in the opener with a freshman QB making his first start and escaped with a 27-24 victory.  That win over Notre Dame hasn't aged very well.

After beating Bethune-Cookman but not covering, the Hurricanes caught South Florida off back-to-back upset wins over Boise State and Florida playing a 3rd straight massive game and tired.  They caught Florida off a deflating loss to LSU where they committed five turnovers and gave the game away in a 20-10 loss the previous week.

After playing four straight games at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, now the Hurricanes finally hit the road for the first time in what will be a very hostile atmosphere Saturday night in Tallahassee.  They must take on a focused, pissed off Seminoles team coming off an upset loss at Virginia last Friday night in OT.  They got a tough whistle in that game and lost despite outgaining the Cavaliers and racking up 516 total yards in defeat.

Gus Malzahn has this Florida State offense humming.  The Seminoles rank 1st in the country averaging 600 yards per game, 2nd averaging 8.2 yards per play and 1st scoring 53.0 points per game.  They have the better offense, and I think this Miami offense hasn't been tested by a very good defense yet even though Florida did hold them to 26 points.  

The Seminoles have a solid defense as well ranking 28th allowing 296.0 yards per game and 26th at 4.6 yards per play.  This despite facing two of the best offenses in the country in Alabama and Virginia.  And we saw them shut down Alabama 31-17 at home in their opener, a win that has aged very well as the Crimson Tide have gone on to crush everyone while also upsetting Georgia on the road.  

This will be the best home atmopshere for a FSU game since they went unbeaten in the regular season two years ago and were left out of the playoff.  With no margin for error after the loss to Virginia, we get a fully focused Seminoles team this week.  Plus, Miami is fat and happy coming off a bye week, and they didn't need a bye week because they were rolling.  Some bye weeks are better than others.  Carson Beck had a 3-to-7 TD/INT ratio and his completion percentage dropped by 10% on the road while at Georgia last year.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* Mississippi State/Texas A&M SEC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 55.5

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 12th in tempo snapping the ball every 22.9 seconds.  They are scoring 38.6 points per game this season and are coming off a 41-34 (OT) loss to Tennessee last week in a shootout that saw 68 combined points at the end of regulation.

After facing an easy schedule of opposing offenses up to that point, the Bulldogs were finally exposed by Tennessee's high-octane offense last week.  Now they will have to face another elite offense in Texas A&M, which has scored 41 or more points in three of its four games this season including a 41-40 shootout win at Notre Dame.

The Aggies are averaging 35.8 points per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  QB Marcel Reed is one of the best in the country, and he has elite playmakers surrounding him in WR Mario Craver (24 receptions, 477 yards, 4 TD) and Kevin Conception (20, 340, 3 TD).  

The Aggies will be able to name their number, and I expect the Bulldogs to be able to keep up in a shootout with their hurry-up offense.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings finishing with 58, 61 and 66 combined points in the last three.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Rice OVER 53.5

The FAU Owls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 19.6 seconds.  They are 3-1 OVER in all games this season combining for 81 points with Memphis, 66 with FIU and 70 with Florida A&M.  The OVER is 9-2 in FAU's last 11 games dating back to last season with 62 or more combined points in all nine overs.  This total of 53.5 is too short for a game involving Florida Atlantic.

This is a poor FAU defense that will give up a big number to Rice.  The Owls are a run-heavy team rushing for 221 yards per game.  They will get what they want on the ground against a FAU defense that is allowing 174.3 rushing yards per game this season.

Rice has faced a terrible schedule of opposing offenses this season and hasn't faced anything like the high-octane FAU passing attack they will be up against this weekend.  They have played Louisiana, Houston, Prairie View A&M, Charlotte and Navy.  Most of those teams play slow, and only Navy has a decent offense of the bunch.  None are pass-happy like FAU, which is averaging 325.5 passing yards per game and 52 pass attempts per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Phillies TBS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

This total of 7 is too short in a matchup between two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.14 runs per game while the Phillies are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  Both offenses are basically fully healthy heading into this series, too.

The Dodgers showed what they were capable of offensively by blasting the Reds 10-5 in Game 1 and 8-4 in Game 2 at home.  They also showed their bullpen is a mess, and it will continue to be a mess in this series with the Phillies.  Shohei Ohtani won't go deep into this game, so that bullpen will be exposed from the jump.

Cristopher Sanchez does not enjoy facing the Dodgers.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his two starts against the Dodgers this season, which both saw 15 combined runs and sailed over the total.

The Dodgers and Phillies have combined for at least 8 runs in six of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Yankees/Blue Jays FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.2 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 4.93 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

Luis Gil is 2-1 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five road starts this season.  Gil is 1-1 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in four career starts against the Blue Jays.

Kevin Gausman is 5-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 16 home starts this season.  Gausman is 4-3 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in his last 12 starts against the Yankees.

The OVER is 11-1-1 in the last 13 meetings in Toronto with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 13 meetings.  This total of 8 is simply too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Eastern Michigan/Buffalo OVER 54

Eastern Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Eagles rank 37th in tempo snapping the ball every 25 seconds, which exposes their defense even more.  The Eagles rank 126th allowing 36.6 points per game, 132nd allowing 492.8 yards per game and 134th allowing 7.3 yards per play.

What makes those numbers even worse is the fact that they have played some terrible offenses in their last four games in Long Island, Kentucky, Louisiana and Central Michigan.  Now they have to face a Buffalo offense that also likes to play with pace ranking 47th in tempo snapping the ball every 25.3 seconds.  And it's a Buffalo offense that gets back starting QB Ta'Quan Roberson, who means everything to this Buffalo offense as one of the better dual-threat QB's in the country.

Buffalo has faced some poor offenses as well in Minnesota, Stephen F. Austin, Kent State, Troy and UConn thus far.  I think this Eastern Michigan offense will give them some problems this week and has the ability to keep up in a shootout.  The Eagles are averaging 24.0 points per game, 374 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  QB Noah Kim has been solid, completing 63.4% of his passes for 1,168 yards while also rushing for 3 scores on the ground.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between Buffalo and Eastern Michigan with 56 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  This total of 54 is too low for a game involving Eastern Michigan, and given the head-to-head history with the high-scoring nature of this series.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Virginia/Louisville OVER 61

Virginia is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and suspect defense.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 OVER in all games this season finishing with 66 or more combined points in four straight games coming in.  Louisville is 3-1 OVER in all games this season finishing with 61 or more combined points twice.

Virginia is averaging 45.6 points per game, 543 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  North Texas transfer QB Chandler Morris has been awesome, completing 71.6% of his passes, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and throwing 10 TD passes while also rushing for 4 scores on the ground.

Jeff Brohm has this Louisville offense humming again this season.  The Cardinals are scoring 38.3 points per game and averaging 6.1 yards per play despite a pretty tough schedule of opposing defenses that has included James Madison and Pitt.  USC transfer Miller Moss is completing 65.6% of his passes and averaging 7.9 per attempt.

Virginia is coming off a 46-38 (OT) shootout against Florida State that saw 76 combined points at the end of regulation.  This game feels like a similar shootout is coming.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday in Louisville with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Maryland +6.5

The Maryland Terrapins are 4-0 this season with four double-digit victories.  That includes their 27-10 win at Wisconsin last time out, which came just before their bye week.  Now they have had two full weeks to prepare for Washington and are sitting on a big effort here to try and remain unbeaten.

This is a terrible spot for Washington.  Two weeks ago they played their biggest rivals in Washington State in the Apple Cup.  Then last week they hosted the No. 1 team in the country in Ohio State.  They came up short in a 24-6 defeat while managing just 234 total yards against the Buckeyes.

I don't think the Huskies will be able to get back up off the mat in time to face Maryland this week.  They don't have much time to recover as they have to travel clear across the country to face the Terrapins.  This is about as long of a trip as you can get for a Big Ten team.  The Huskies have cluster injuries on defense as well that aren't being factored into the line enough.  They are down three starters since the start of the season.

Now the Huskies will have to try and tame 5-star freshman QB Malik Washington.  He has thrown for 1,038 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for two scores.  Many believe he will prove to be one of the best QB's in the country soon, and he could get a bag anywhere he wanted to go after this season because of his talents.  The Terrapins are loaded with receiver talent as a trio of seniors in Farooq, Smith Jr. and Knotts all have between 14 and 17 receptions this season as Washington has spread the ball around nicely.

While Washington and the offense get the hype, it's the defense that has been most impressive.  The Terrapins are only allowing 10.8 points per game and 4.1 yards per play, ranking 7th and 11th in the country, respectively.  I'll gladly take the points on the Terrapins in this very favorable spot off a bye against this tired Huskies team that won't be as motivated to win this game as they were to beat Washington State and Ohio State the last two weeks.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida International +8

The UConn Huskies are a tired team and ripe for the picking this week.  The Huskies will be playing for a 6th consecutive week after four straight one-score games against Syracuse, Delaware, Ball State and Buffalo.  They are running on fumes now, and they should not be favored by more than a TD against the Florida International Panthers this week.

That's especially the case when you consider FIU is coming off a bye week and has had two full weeks to prepare for UConn.  The Panthers have a first-year head coach in Willie Simmons, and first-year head coaches benefit more from bye weeks than the rest of the coaches.  Look for the Panthers to have his systems down now and to be as sharp as they've been all season this week.

FIU is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS this season.  After opening with a 42-9 win over Bethune-Cookman as 26.5-point favorites, the Panthers were game in a 34-0 loss at Penn State as 42-point dogs as the cover was never in question.  Then they beat rival Florida Atlantic 38-28 at home as 1.5-point favorites, before a misleading 38-16 loss to Delaware as 4.5-point favorites.  The Panthers actually outgained the Blue Hens in that loss.  Keep in mind Delaware also upset UConn on the road earlier this season.

It's a bad look for UConn being in one-score games with both Ball State and Buffalo since that loss to Delaware.  The Huskies were 21-point favorites against Ball State and only won by 6 and were actually outgained by the Cardinals.  They were also outgained by Buffalo in a 3-point win, and that's a Buffalo team that was playing with a backup QB.  I'm not even sure UConn is a better team than FIU at this point.  Given the horrific spot for the Huskies and the great one for the Panthers, this number is a few notches too high at minimum.  Bet Florida International Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Temple OVER 56.5

UTSA is a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  You could tell that was going to be the case coming into the season with 9 starters back on offense but only 2 starters back on defense.  That has played out thus far.

UTSA boasts an offense that is putting up 31.3 points per game, 406 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  But the Roadrunners allow 30.3 points per game, 408 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  The OVER 3-1 in all UTSA games this season combining for 66 points with Texas A&M, 79 with Texas State and 68 with Incarnate Word.

Temple is 3-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Owls combined for 52 points with UMass, 62 with Howard and 69 with Georgia Tech in their three games that went over the total.  I like QB Evan Simon, who has a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio despite playing Oklahoma and Georgia Tech already and a tough schedule of opposing defenses.  The Owls have a lot more talent on offense than they do on defense, as evidenced by giving up 42 to Oklahoma and 45 to Georgia Tech.

Both meetings between Temple and UTSA over the last two seasons sailed over the total with a 51-27 win by UTSA in 2024 and 78 combined points with a 55.5-point total, and a 49-34 win by the Roadrunners in 2023 and 83 combined points with a 56-point total.  The books have made the mistake of setting this total too low once again in 2025.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa State/Cincinnati OVER 53.5

Cincinnati is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and suspect defense.  The Bearcats also rank 34th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds, so they like to play fast.  They will control the tempo playing at home Saturday against Iowa State.

Cincinnati ranks 17th scoring 39.5 points per game, 17th averaging 479.5 yards per game and 3rd averaging 8.1 yards per play on offense.  This despite playing a pretty difficult schedule that has included Nebraska and Kansas.  The Bearcats are coming off a 37-34 shootout win over Kansas.  They had 603 total yards while allowing 597 total yards in an absolute shootout.

Iowa State just put up 39 points on Arizona last week stepping back into Big 12 play.  The Cyclones have a dynamic offense with a great QB in Rocco Becht and a plethora of playmakers both at the WR and TE positions.  In fact, they may have the best TE room in the country.  And ECU transfer WR Chase Sowell had his breakout game last week, catching 4 balls for 146 yards.  He's finally healthy and at full strength now and will be a problem for opposing defenses moving forward.

Iowa State has benefited from a weak schedule of opposing offenses in Kansas State, South Dakota, Iowa, Arkansas State and Arizona.  The Cyclones take a big step up in class trying to tame QB Brendan Sorsby and this Cincinnati offense.  Sorsby is completing 69.2% of his passes with 10 TD, while also rushing for 227 yards and 4 scores.  He should have a field day against an Iowa State defense that will be without its top to cornerbacks in Jontez Williams and Jeremiah Cooper, who both suffered season-ending injuries.  

Becht and company are going to be forced to keep up and shootout, and I think they'll be up to the task in this one.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation in Cincinnati Saturday.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +15

I love the spot for Ball State Saturday.  They have a first-year head coach and are coming off a bye week.  First-year head coaches benefit the most from bye weeks because they're implementing new systems, and players need that extra time to figure it out.  And I've been very impressed with the improvement of the Cardinals in their last two games after two blowout road losses to Purdue and Auburn to open the season against a brutal schedule.

They came back in Week 3 and beat a very good FCS team in New Hampshire 34-29 at home.  They racked up 413 total yards in that win.  Then last time out they nearly upset UConn in a 31-25 road loss as 21-point dogs.  They put up 404 total yards on the Huskies and actually outgained them as well.

Ohio is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week.  The Bobcats have one of the worst defenses in the country, and they should not be 15-point road favorites here given the state of their defense.  Ohio allows 27.2 points per game while ranking 111th in total defense at 410.2 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.

This Ball State offense has shown life the last two games and will be able to put up enough points to keep this game competitive.  Senior QB Kiael Kelly is completing 64.8% of his passes while also rushing for 170 yards and a score.  Junior RB Qua Ashley has rushed for 295 yards and 3 TD while averaging 5.7 per carry.  These are solid numbers especially when you consider the Cardinals have faced the 32nd-toughest schedule in the country and some very good defenses.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/Georgia UNDER 48.5

The Kentucky Wildcats have been a dead nuts UNDER team the entire Mark Stoops tenure.  They play great defense, and they play at a snail's pace on offense to try and shorten games to give themselves their best chance to win.  That's especially the case when the play some of the top teams in the SEC like Georgia.

Kentucky ranks 85th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 27.1 seconds.  Georgia is in no hurry either, ranking 72nd in tempo snapping the ball every 26.5 seconds.  Both teams have been more impressive on defense than they have been on offense this season, and both have QB's that just aren't up to SEC standards.

Kentucky is averaging just 5.3 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.7 yards per play on defense against teams that average 6.2 per play.  They have faced some very good offenses in Toledo, Ole Miss and South Carolina.  So they have been battle tested and have held their own defensively.

Kentucky has flip flopped QB's this season with Calzada completing 25-of-53 (47.2%) of his passes and Boley completing 23-of-43 (53.5%).  They just don't have a QB on the roster capable of completing forward passes consistently, and I fully expect this elite Georgia defense to shut them down.  

The Bulldogs are allowing 19.5 points per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that average 38.6 points per game and 6.2 per play, holding them to 19.1 points per game below their season averages.  They have already faced two elite offenses in Tennessee and Alabama in their last two games, so this is a big step down in class for them.

I'm just not a fan of Georgia QB Gunnar Stockton who has only thrown 5 TD passes in four games.  He is more of a threat as a runner than he is as a thrower.  Kentucky should be able to bottle him up enough and limit this Georgia offense to 31 points or fewer.  And I don't think Kentucky will top 17 in this one.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 43 or fewer combined points in five of those six, including 25 or fewer in four of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +10

This is one of the worst spots of the season for Illinois.  The Fighting Illini bounced back from their 63-10 drubbing at Indiana two weeks ago with a 34-32 upset home win over USC as 7-point dogs last week.  They have an even bigger game at home against Ohio State on deck next week, and this is the clear letdown spot for the Fighting Illini at Purdue this week.

Illinois just won't have much left in the tank for Purdue playing for a 6th consecutive week.  Meanwhile, Purdue is coming off a bye week under first-year head coach Barry Odom.  Teams with first-year head coaches benefit from bye weeks more than other teams, and that will be the case here for the Boilermakers.

They needed the bye after losses to USC at home and Notre Dame on the road coming in.  They played USC much tougher than the final score of 33-17 showed, and they put up 30 points on Notre Dame.  They were -3 in turnovers against USC including a pick-6 that changed the game.

I love what I've seen from Purdue sophomore QB Ryan Brown, who got his feet wet at a freshman last year and has taken a big leap forward this year despite a brutal schedule.  Browne is completing 63.1% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt.  Brown threw for 311 yards in the opener against Ball State, 305 against USC and 250 against Notre Dame.

Purdue also wants revenge from a 50-49 (OT) loss at Illinois last season.  Browne had his best game of the season against the Fighting Illini in that loss, completing 18-of-26 passes for 297 yards and 3 TD without an interception, while also rushing for 118 yards.  He has already shown he can have a big game against this Illinois defense, and I think he'll have another big game that could lead to an outright upset given the favorable spot for the Boilermakers this weekend.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on UAB +7

The spot really favors UAB in this one.  The Blazers are coming off their bye week, so they have two weeks to prepare for Army's triple-option.  They have already faced Navy's triple-option this season and held up well, losing 38-24 as 20.5-point road dogs.  They were only outgained by 50 yards and were -3 in turnovers in that game as it was much closer than the 14-point final indicates.

UAB defensive coordinator Steve Russ is very familiar with defending the triple-option.  He actually played at Air Force and spent six season as their defensive coordinator after.  The defense should be much healthier off the bye, and this Army offense isn't nearly as potent as what they saw against Navy.

The Black Knights are only averaging 23.8 points per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.  They won't be able to go on the road and get margin against a UAB offense that will just keep coming.  The Blazers average 32.8 points per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.

The Blazers scored 24 points on Navy with 413 total yards and they also put up 24 points on Tennessee and finished with 394 total yards.  They have an elite passing attack led by QB Jalen Kitna, who is completing 71.5% of his passes and averaging 8.3 per attempt this season despite the tough schedule.

Army is allowing 31.0 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.  They are allowing 7.3 yards per attempt in the passing game and you can throw on this Army defense that has taken a big step back this season as well.  The Black Knights rank 127th in pass success rate allowed, while UAB's pass offense ranks in the Top 20.  Army lost 28-6 at East Carolina last week and remains overvalued this week.  Bet UAB Saturday.

25* C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Delaware -2.5

After being a FCS powerhouse prior, the Delaware Blue Hens are already proving they belong at the FBS level.  Head coach Ryan Carty returned 15 starters and a veteran roster that has already pulled off a couple upsets this season.

Delaware is 3-1 SU with a 35-17 win over Delaware State, a 44-41 upset win as 8.5-point home dogs to UConn and a 38-16 upset win as 4.5-point dogs at Florida International.  Even their 31-7 loss at Colorado as 24-point dogs was extremely misleading as they were only outgained by 2 yards but were -3 in turnovers.  They were stopped time and time again deep in Colorado territory, too.

I love the spot for the Blue Hens, who are coming off a much deserved bye week and now have basically two full weeks to prepare for this game against Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers don't have that same luxury, coming off a hard-fought 27-22 win at Missouri State on Saturday.  They are tired playing for a 6th consecutive week, they will be on a short week, and it will be tough for them to prepare for this dynamic Delaware offense in time for this game Friday night.

Western Kentucky has benefitted from playing the 188th-ranked schedule in the country.  The Hilltoppers are 3-1 but their three wins came against FCS North Alabama, and two of the worst FBS teams in the country in Nevada and Missouri State.  They were rocked 45-21 by Toledo in their lone step up game while allowing 508 total yards to the Rockets.

This suspect WKU defense will have its hands full against a Delaware offense that is averaging 31.0 points per game, 418.8 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play despite the tough schedule.  QB Nicholas Mincucci is completing 65.2% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 4 scores.  Senior WR Kyle Duplessis has 20 receptions for 306 yards and 2 TD, while senior RB Jo'Nathan Silver has 326 rushing yards and 3 TD on 7.2 per carry.

This will be a great atmosphere for a Friday night home game in Delaware.  I believe the Blue Hens are the better team, and the spot really favors them off a bye while the Hilltoppers on a short week with the travel of back-to-back road games.  This is where WKU gets exposed similar to their 24-point loss at Toledo.  Bet Delaware Friday.

15* Sam Houston/New Mexico State C-USA ANNIHILATOR on Sam Houston -2

I love the situation for the Sam Houston State Bearkats Thursday night.  They have opened 0-4 against a brutal schedule with road losses to Western Kentucky, Hawaii and Texas, as well as a home loss to UNLV.  They have had a bye week since the loss to Texas, so they've had nearly two full weeks to prepare for this game.  Bye weeks are extra beneficial to teams with first-year head coaches like Sam Houston State.

This will be an actual short week for New Mexico State.  The Aggies are coming off a 38-20 loss Saturday at New Mexico, their biggest rivals.  It will be tough for them to get back up off the mat in time to get ready for this game against the Bearkats.  They also won't be nearly as motivated to win this game as they were to beat New Mexico.

While Sam Houston State has played the 14th-toughest schedule in the country, New Mexico State has faced the 160th-ranked schedule.  I love betting on teams who have played a tough schedule against teams that have played a weak schedule in October.  The stats are skewed to the team that has played the easier schedule, creating line value for the team that played the tougher schedule.

New Mexico State is overvalued due to a 2-2 record with home wins over FCS Bryant and Tulsa, and blowout road losses to LA Tech 49-14 and New Mexico 38-20.  The win over Tulsa was fluky as they were outgained by 85 yards by the Golden Hurricane and held to just 291 yards.  This Aggies offense is dreadful, averaging 18.5 points per game, 302 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play despite the soft schedule of opposing defenses.

Sam Houston QB Hunter Watson stayed around to run Phil Longo's offense after a solid season last year.  I think the bye week will have done the senior QB wonders, and he should have a much better grasp of the system coming out of the bye.  He should torch a New Mexico State defense that allows 420 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play.  Bet Sam Houston State Thursday.

20* 49ers/Rams NFC West No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3

I grabbed the Rams -3 Sunday night with the anticipation this line would move their way once the 49ers injury information came out later in the week.  This is now a great bet with the Rams currently as -7.5 to -9 favorites as of this writing Wednesday night.  If you missed out on the Rams -3 early in the week, I would recommend teasing the Rams down to -1.5 with the Jets +8.5 and/or the Commanders +8.5.  The Rams are going to win this game, so you can still get some value out of them with teasers if you missed out on the -3.

The 49ers' injury situation is even worse than anticipated.  I knew Brock Purdy, Rickey Pearsall and Josh Jennings would all be questionable at best.  Well, all three have been ruled out.  The 49ers will have to go back to Mac Jones, and he won't have anyone to throw to as Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are also out.  Their top three receivers are going to be Kendrick Bourne, Demarcus Robinson and Skyy Moore.

The Rams have one of the best defenses in the NFL allowing 20.3 points per game, 284.5 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  They could easily be 4-0 as they blew a double-digit lead over the Eagles and had their game-winning FG attempt blocked and returned for a TD when they were trailing by a single point.  The 49ers won't be able to get much offensively against this Rams defense.

The 49ers also lost their best defender in DE Nick Bosa to a torn ACL.  The Jaguars ripped their defense for 26 points last week.  The 49ers could easily be 0-4 as their three wins came over the Seahawks by 4, the Saints by 5 and the Cardinals by 1.  They should feel fortunate to be 3-1 right now with some room to spare.  They can afford to lose this game, and they certainly will as this is a big step up in class for them.  

It's a terrible spot for the 49ers on the short week as one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL, while the Rams are one of the healthiest.  Sean McVay thrives in this situation, going 8-2 SU in Thursday night games in his tenure with Los Angeles.  Bet the Rams Thursday.

20* Padres/Cubs ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago -121

The Cubs should be bigger favorites over the San Diego Padres in this winner-take-all Game 3.  They have the advantage on the mound, they have the advantage at the plate, and they have home-field advantage in what should be a very hostile atmosphere in Chicago Thursday night.

I'll gladly fade the struggling Yu Darvish, who is 5-5 with a 5.38 ERA in 15 starts for the Padres this season.  Darvish has been at his worst on the road, going 1-3 with a 7.26 ERA in seven starts away from the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park in San diego.

Jameson Taillon has been solid all season for the Cubs going 11-7 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 23 starts.  Taillon has been at his best at home, going 5-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 10 starts at Wrigley Field.  He has never lost to the Padres, going 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in five career starts against them while allowing just 8 earned runs in 30 innings.  Bet the Cubs Thursday.

20* Tigers/Guardians ABC No-Brainer on Cleveland -109

The Cleveland Guardians came up clutch again last night to avoid elimination.  The Tigers barely won the game they had to have with Tarik Skubal on the mound in Game 1 needing two unearned runs for a 2-1 victory.  The Guardians responded with a 6-1 victory in Game 2, and now I expect the Guardians to win this series in Game 3 behind what will be a hostile Cleveland crowd this afternoon.

The Guardians are 20-5 in their last 25 games overall and playing with a ton of confidence, while the Tigers are 3-11 in their last 14 games overall and fortunate to even be here.  The Guardians have the much better bullpen with a 3.40 ERA on the season and a 0.00 ERA in these playoffs, while the Tigers have a 4.08 ERA as a bullpen and a 7.11 ERA in these playoffs.

Slade Cecconi has been dominant in his last four starts for the Guardians.  He has allowed just 6 earned runs and 18 base runners in 24 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 2.19 ERA during this stretch.  Those were all must-win games as the Guardians were surging to try and make the playoffs, so he won't be rattled by this atmosphere.

Jack Flaherty has been rattled all season, going 8-15 with a 4.64 ERA in 31 starts for the Tigers.  That's especially been the case on the road where Flaherty is 3-7 with a 5.27 ERA in 14 starts away from home.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his lone road start at Cleveland this season.  Secconi is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Tigers this season, allowing just 3 earned runs in 12 innings.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

20* MLB Wild Card GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-103)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have gone 10-2 in their last 12 games to win the NL West and home-field advantage in the wild card round.  The Dodgers are 6-1 in seven meetings with the Reds this season with five of those six wins coming by 3 runs or more, including a 10-5 win in Game 1.  I expect them to win by multiple runs again tonight due to their massive advantage on the mound and at the plate.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 12-8 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 34 innings with 44 K's in his last five starts for a minuscule 0.79 ERA.  He allowed just one earned run in 7 innings of a 5-2 win over the Reds in his lone start against them this season.

Zack Littell is 10-8 with a 3.81 ERA in 32 starts this season for the Rays and Reds.  He has really struggled down the stretch, allowing 20 earned runs and 9 homers in 35 2/3 innings in his last seven starts for a 5.05 ERA.  This will be his first career start against the Dodgers, and it will not go well for him.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* Red Sox/Yankees ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 7

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 7 ticket between the Red Sox and Yankees tonight.  There will be 10-20 MPH winds blowing in from left at Yankee Stadium.  Two left-handed aces go tonight so pulling balls to left against them will be a big advantage for the pitchers.

Garrett Crochet is 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 32 starts this season, including 13-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 18 road starts.  Crochet is 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in four starts against the Yankees in 2025.

Max Fried is 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 32 starts this season, including 8-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 15 home starts.  Fried is 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox in 2025, allowing just 4 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Padres/Cubs ABC No-Brainer on Chicago -111

This is a tough series for the Padres because the Cubs will throw two left-handers at them and the Padres really struggle against left-handed pitching.  They are hitting just .241 with a .307 OBP against southpaws this season while scoring just 3.8 runs per 9 innings.

Lefty Matthew Boyd goes for the Cubs in Game 1 today.  Boyd is 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  He has been dominant at home, going 12-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 15 home starts.  Boyd is 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA in two starts against the Padres this season, allowing just 2 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings.

Nick Pivetta has big home/road splits this season.  He has obviously been much better at pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego.  But Pivetta is 5-4 with a 3.55 ERA in 14 road starts this season.  He is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in two career starts at Wrigley Field, allowing 7 earned runs and 16 base runners in 8 innings.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* Tigers/Guardians ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +152

The Cleveland Guardians went 19-4 in their final 23 games of the season to win the AL Central over the Detroit Tigers by one game.  The Tigers went 2-10 in their last 12 games overall and were fortunate to even make the postseason after the Houston Astros choked nearly as badly as them.

The Tigers have no business being this big of a favorite on the road against the Guardians in Game 1.  Tarik Skubal is a great starter, but he lost his last two starts against the Guardians both in September as -206 and -152 favorites.  The Guardians will battle him again, and I expect them to get the best of him.

Gavin Williams has been better than Skubal down the stretch and is massively undervalued.  Williams has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 23 of his last 26 starts, and 4 earned runs in the three starts he didn't.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 19 of those 26 starts.

Williams is 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 16 home starts, 5-1 with a 2.17 ERA in 13 day game starts, and 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last five starts.  Williams owns the Tigers, going 3-2 with a 1.88 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  He is 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA in three starts against the Tigers in 2025, allowing just 2 earned runs in 17 innings with 29 K's.  Bet the Guardians Tuesday.

20* Bengals/Broncos ABC No-Brainer on OVER 43.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have some of the best playmakers in the league on offense which will help out Jake Browning.  But they also have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and keep getting shredded.

The Bengals rank 28th in scoring defense allowing 30.3 points per game.  After holding the lowly Browns in check in Week 1, the Bengals allowed 27 points to the Jaguars and 48 points to the Vikings the last two weeks.  I fully expect Denver to hang a big number on this poor Cincinnati defense.

The Broncos have clearly slipped a little defensively this season after benefiting from an extremely easy schedule of opposing offenses last year.  They allowed 29 points and 473 total yards to the Colts two weeks ago and 23 points and 376 total yards to a banged up Chargers offense last week.  

I think Browning and company will do enough to help us cash this OVER 43.5 ticket in what will likely be in the ball park of a 30-20 win for Denver.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Jets/Dolphins ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 44

These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL and this total of 44 is too short as a result.  The Dolphins rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 32.3 points per game, 27th in total defense allowing 370.3 yards per game and 30th allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Jets rank 29th in scoring defense allowing 31.0 points per game.

The Jets allowed 29 points to the Bucs, 30 to the Bills and 34 to the Steelers.  The Dolphins allowed 33 points tot he Colts, 33 to the Patriots and 31 to the Bills.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 47 or more combined points in five of those seven and 52 or more in four of them.

The Jets will get Justin Fields back from a concussion Monday night that will really help out their offense.  They also get back starting WR Josh Reynolds.  The Dolphins have managed to stay fully healthy on offense with all of their top playmakers available tonight.  Both offenses are a lot healthier than these defenses.

The Dolphins will be without CB Storm Duck, who is among six defensive backs that are out with injury for Miami.  They are extremely thin in the secondary.  The Jets have five defenders on IR and will be without starting DE Jermaine Johnson.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Packers/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay -6.5

The Green Bay Packers should be 3-0 and if they were they probably wouldn't be less than 7-point favorites to the Dallas Cowboys.  While the Packers are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL this season, the Cowboys are one of the worst.

The Packers will want to win this game for Micah Parsons.  They will also want to win this game simply because they have a bye on deck next week, and they are coming off an upset loss to the Browns to add to their motivation.  Look for a big effort from the Packers in this one.

The Packers have the best defense in the NFL to this point allowing just 232.3 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  The Cowboys have one of the worst, allowing 30.7 points per game, 397.7 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  And that will be the difference in this game.

The Cowboys are so bad that they allowed Russell Wilson to light them up for 37 points and 506 total yards two weeks ago.  Wilson and the Giants have been dreadful offensively in their other two games against the Commanders and Chiefs, scoring a total of 15 points in those two games combined.

The Cowboys went on to allow 31 points to Caleb Williams and the Bears last week.  Williams looked terrible against the Vikings and Lions in his first two games.  Jordan Love isn't hitting on all cylinders yet, but he's going to look like the best QB in the NFL against this soft, banged up Cowboys defense.

Injuries are a big problem for the Cowboys right now.  The biggest is the injury to star WR CeeDee Lamb.  The Cowboys were lost offensively without him last week only scoring 14 points against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Bears.  Dallas is going to be without two starters on the offensive line in C Cooper Beebe and RG Tyler Booker as well.

Dak Prescott will be running for his life against this fierce Green Bay pass rush up against this makeshift Dallas offensive line.  The Cowboys are likely to get both CB DaRon Bland and CB Trevon Diggs back from injury this week, but both are banged up, as is DT Kenny Clark who had to leave the Chicago game with an injury.

The Packers own the Cowboys going 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Home underdogs do not fare well in games officiated by Ron Torbert.  Indeed, home underdogs are 16-36 ATS in the last 52 games with Torbert as the head official.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5

The 49ers could easily be 0-3 instead of 3-0.  Their three wins came over the Seahawks by 4, the Saints by 5 and the Cardinals by 1.  They are overvalued due to that 3-0 start, and this is a terrible spot for them this week.  They are coming off that 1-point win over division rival Arizona and sit in 1st place alone in the NFC West.  They have an even bigger divisional game on deck Thursday against the Rams, and they want to make sure they are as healthy as possible for that game as it's much more important.  This is a clear letdown spot for the 49ers.

San Francisco is snake bitten by injuries, too.  The 49ers are without Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Nick Bosa which are three of their best players.  Brock Purdy will be playing through toe and shoulder injuries, and his current top two receivers in Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are both questionable.  The offensive line cannot create any running lanes for Christian McCaffrey, and this is really a broken offense right now scoring just 19.7 points per game despite the 3-0 start.

The 49ers have been relying on defense thus far, and they will try to turn this into another defensive battle.  But this will be their first game without Bosa, and their defense is sure to get tested this week after facing three sub-par offenses in the Seahawks, Saints and Cardinals.

The Jaguars are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  The only starter questionable is WR Dyami Brown.  The Jaguars are 2-1 and should be 3-0 as they blew a late lead to the Bengals.  They have elite numbers averaging 356.3 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play on offense, while allowing 17.0 points per game, 292 yards per game and 4.9 per play on defense.  This is one of the most improved defenses in the NFL.

The offense even has a lot more room for improvement because Trevor Lawrence has had his receivers drop passes at the highest rate in the NFL.  They will get that shored up, and this offense will continue to improve rapidly under first-year head coach Liam Coen, who was responsible for Baker Mayfield's career season in Tampa Bay last year.  I fully expect Jacksonville to win this game outright, but we'll take the 3.5 points for some added insurance.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds +121

The Cincinnati Reds clinch the final wild card spot in the National League with a win today.  The Milwaukee Brewers have already secured the No. 1 seed throughout the postseason, meaning the World Series would go through Milwaukee.  They have nothing to play for and are playing like it now.

Brady Singer is 6-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his last 10 starts.  Singer is 6-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 12 day game starts.  It's hard to envision the Milwaukee Brewers letting Freddy Peralta go very deep in this one.  This is more of just a tune up for him.  Bet the Reds Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians -135

The Cleveland Guardians are 18-4 in their last 22 games overall and are now tied with the Detroit Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central and own the tiebreaker.  They will be the AL Central champs with home-field advantage in the wild card round with a win.

The Rangers were right in the thick of the AL West race before getting swept by the Houston Astros September 15-17.  They have been lifeless since, going 2-10 in their last 12 games overall and have been eliminated from playoff contention.  They don't care nearly as much about this game as the Guardians and just want their season to be over.

Logan Allen has come up clutch in his last two starts firing 8 shutout innings in a 8-0 win over the Twins in his last start and allowing due one earned run in 5 innings against the Royals the start prior.  He will be facing a makeshift Texas lineup due to injuries and simply sitting guys because they don't care about these last few games.

I'll gladly fade Patrick Corbin, who is 4-5 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 15 road starts this season.  Corbin is 1-3 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in eight day game starts.  He is 1-4 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in his last 10 starts as well.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 16 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +3

The Atlanta Falcons +3 was the first play I released to clients this week.  I did so knowing the injury situation for the Washington Commanders was going to be pretty ugly this week, and it wasn't adjusted for early in the week.  It has now been adjusted, but the Falcons should be at least 3-point home favorites given all the factors.

The Commanders will be without starting QB Jayden Daniels, starting WR Terry McCLaurin and starting WR Noah Brown on offense.  They also could be without rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who has been huge for them thus far.  They were already without 3rd-down RB Austin Ekeler to a season-ending injury.

Washington is coming off a satisfying 41-24 home win over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Marcus Mariota was great in his first start in place of Daniels.  But now the Falcons have tape on him, and he will be without two of his top receivers and probably his RB.  Mariota will look much more like a backup QB in his first start on the road this week.

We will 'sell high' on the Commanders off that blowout win, and 'buy low' on the Falcons off a 30-0 blowout loss at Carolina.  That was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  The Falcons outgained the Panthers 332 to 224 for the game, or by 108 total yards.  The Panthers had a Pick-6, and the Falcons got stopped time and time again in the red zone.

I think the Falcons were feeling fat and happy off their 22-6 road win over the Vikings on Sunday Night Football the week prior.  They simply had a letdown against the Panthers, and everything that could go wrong, did.  Now the Falcons are fully focused, pissed off and ready to bounce back against the Commanders this week.

The Falcons are fully healthy on offense with the exception of some backups, and they are fully healthy on defense with the exception of CB A.J. Terrell.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL heading into Week 4, and they have a massive health advantage over the Commanders in this one.  

The Falcons have one of the best defenses in the NFL allowing just 227.3 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play, which ranks 2nd and 4th in the NFL, respectively.  They also have a bye on deck next week, and I love betting teams coming off a bad loss with a bye on deck because I know I'm going to get a fully focused effort from them.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are beating everyone except the Tampa Bay Bucs over the last few seasons.  They were knocked out of the playoffs two years ago by the Bucs, and they lost to the Bucs again in the regular season last year.  So there will be no letdown here for the Eagles as they want some serious revenge on this team.

The Eagles were extremely banged up in their last two losses to the Bucs, but now the Bucs are the team that is banged up while the Eagles are healthy, and they are going to get their revenge as a result.

The Bucs could easily be 0-3 instead of 3-0.  They have needed three game-winning drives by Baker Mayfield to beat the Falcons by 3, the Texans by 1 and the Jets by 2.  Mayfield has been able to cover up many of their flaws against suspect competition, but he won't be able to cover them up this week against the defending Super Bowl champs.

The Bucs are without two starting offensive linemen in RT Luke Goedeke and RG Cody Mauche.  LT Tristan Wirfs is questionable and not 100%.  WR Mike Evans went out with a hamstring injury last week and has been ruled out.  QB Mayfield is questionable with a biceps injury.  WR Jalen McMillan is out, and WR Chris Godwin may make his season debut this week but is coming off a torn ACL and may only be a shell of his former self.  The Bucs are without their best pass rusher in D Calijah Kancey, and DE Logan Hall is questionable.

The Eagles are fully healthy on offense and got their passing game going finally last week in a comeback win over the Rams.  They are without LB Nakobe Dean and LB Nolan Smith Jr., but they are deep at the position.  They are without CB Adoree Jackson, but he's one of of the worst corners in the league and I actually think they will be better off without him.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +7

It's time to 'sell high' on the 3-0 Chargers and 'buy low' on the 0-3 Giants.  This is max line value due to their records, and there are several reasons to like the Giants to stay within this 7-point spread and possibly pull off the upset Sunday.

The Chargers not only 3-0, but all three wins came against their three division opponents in the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos.  They are 'fat and happy' with a 2-game lead in the division, and now they have to travel out East for the first time this season for the dreaded 10 AM body clock game for West Coast teams.

The injuries are starting to pile up for the Chargers, too.  They are without RB Najee Harris, TE Will Dissly, RG Mekhi Becton, and could be without C Bradley Bozeman, who is questionable.  They were already without LT Rashawn Slater and backup RT Savion Washington, and starting RT Trey Pipkins III was hobbled last week and won't be 100%.

Defensively, the Chargers are without LB Khalil Mack and LB Denzel Perryman, plus they have three players in the secondary on IR.  They gutted out a 23-20 home win over the Broncos last week despite all these injuries, and now they are primed for a letdown this week.

The Giants don't usually have a very big home-field advantage.  But that changes this week with the announcement that 1st-round pick Jaxson Dart will start at QB.  I saw enough from him in college and enough in the preseason to know he's going to be a future star like Jayden Daniels, and Dart and the Giants have the element of surprise working in their favor heading into this one.

Dart opens up so much more of the playbook than Russell Wilson, who is too short to use the middle of the field and is only good on deep balls against man-to-man coverage.  No offense has been worse in the red zone than the Giants because Wilson is just incapable of using the entire end zone.  Dart is great in the run-pass option game, which is going to open everything up.

The Giants are coming off a misleading 22-9 loss to the Chiefs.  They were only outgained by 25 yards, but they failed time and time again in the red zone, and their kicker got injured pregame to boot.  They fumbled going in for a TD as well.  That misleading loss has created some line value as the Giants should have covered +6.5, but it was just another bad beat that I've suffered early int he season and there have been a plethora of them.  Those breaks will start to go our way, starting with this week.

The Giants are also one of the healthiest temas in the NFL.  Their entire offensive line is intact, and the only player they are missing on offense is RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., who has been mostly innefective thus far anyway with rookie Cam Skattebo being the much more productive back.  Skattebo is going to thrive in this read-option offense as defenders will have to account for Dart's legs.

I like this Giants defense with one of the best defensive lines in the league.  They have the horses to take advantage of this banged-up Chargers offensive line to get constant pressure on Justin Herbert.  I think they will hold him in check enough, and Dart and company will be good enough to stay within this 7-point spread.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on New England Patriots -5

It's time to 'buy low' on the New England Patriots off a misleading 21-14 loss to the Steelers last week, and 'sell high' on the Carolina Panthers after a misleading 30-0 win over the Falcons last week.  This is the perfect storm for value, and the Patriots are going to easily win this game by a TD or more Sunday to get us the cover.

The Patriots gave the game away against the Steelers by committing 5 turnovers including two at the 1-yard line when they were going in for touchdowns, taking 14 points off the board right there.  They dominated the stats outgaining the Steelers 369 to 203, or by 166 total yards.  I trust in head coach Mike Vrabel to correct the mistakes, and I expect his team to respond in a big way this week.

The Panthers are 'fat and happy' after nabbing their first win of the season in a 30-0 win over the Falcons last week.  They were actually outgained 334 to 224 by the Falcons, or by 110 total yards.  But they benefited from three turnovers including a pick-6.  The Falcons took the Panthers lightly coming off their 22-6 win over the Vikings on Sunday Night Football and they paid for it.  The Falcons won't make the same mistake.

I'm not so sure the Panthers aren't the worst team in the NFL still.  They lost 26-10 at Jacksonville in Week 1, and they trailed Arizona 27-3 in the 2H before a plethora of injuries to the Cardinals secondary allowed the Panthers to make it interesting late.  The Panthers are only averaging 4.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.7 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.3 yards per play which is one of the worst marks in the NFL.

The Patriots are great against the run.  They have had 56 running back carries against them and have only allowed one carry of more than 12 yards all season.  They rank 2nd in the NFL in yards before 1st contact on opponent runs, and 2nd in the NFL in defending outside zone runs, which is what the Panthers like to do offensively.

The Patriots are also the much healthier team coming into this one.  They are expected to get star CB Christian Gonzalez in the lineup for the first time this season.  The only starter they will for sure be without is LG Jared Wilson.  They have three other starters questionable that are all likely to play.

The Panthers are seriously banged up right now.  They are going to be without four starters in WR Xavier Legette, TE Ja'Tavion Sanders, LB D.J. Wonnum and LB Patrick Jones II.  They were already without two starers on the offensive line in C Austin Corbett and RG Robert Hunt.  And two more playmakers in WR Terairoa McMillan and RB Chuba Hubbard are both questionable, plus they were already without WR Jalen Coker.  Bryce Young is going to be very short on playmakers and running for his life for four quarters.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* Vikings/Steelers NFL Dublin No-Brainer on Minnesota ML -140

The Minnesota Vikings were dominant in Carson Wentz's first game as a starter.  Head coach Kevin O'Connell is working wonders with another veteran QB, and Wentz is probably an upgrade over rookie JJ McCarthy and his injury could prove to be a blessing in disguise for this team.

The Vikings smashed the Bengals 48-10 at home last week.  Obviously they were aided by 5 turnovers and a couple defensive touchdowns, but this is one of the best defenses in the NFL and the reason I trust the Vikings.  Wentz went 14-of-20 for 173 yards and 2 TD while Jordan Mason rushed for 116 yards and a pair of scores.

The Vikings opened the season pretty banged up but now they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  They have LT Chrstian Darrisaw and C Ryan Kelly back this week.  They are only missing LG Donavan Jackson, and they get back WR Jordan Addison from a 3-game suspension to give Wentz another weapon.  This offense is absolutely loaded with playmakers.  LB Blake Cashman went on IR after week 1, and LB Andrew Van Ginkel is out this week, but they got FS Harrison Smith back and are fully healthy everywhere else on defense.

As high as I am on the Vikings, this play is more of a fade of the Pittsburgh Steelers than anything.  They should be 0-3, but are overvalued after a 2-1 start.  They beat the Jets 34-32 in their opener despite giving up 394 total yards and getting outgained by 123 yards.  That performance looks really bad after seeing the Jets offense the last two weeks in their 0-3 start.

The Steelers were thoroughly dominated in a 31-17 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2.  They allowed 395 yards to the Seahawks and were outgained by 128 yards.  And last week was the most misleading of them all, a 21-14 win at New England in which the Patriots gave the game away by committing 5 turnovers including two at the 1-yard line going in for scores.  They allowed 369 total yards to the Patriots and were outgained by 166 yards.

Aaron Rodgers is 6-of-22 (27%) passing when pressured this season.  No defensive coordinator brings more pressure than Brian Flores and his blitz-happy style.  Last year, Rodgers threw 3 interceptions against Flores and the Vikings, and Jets head coach Robert Saleh was fired after that 23-17 defeat.

The Vikings are averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.  The Steelers are averaging 247 yards per game and 4.8 per play on offense and allowing 386 yards per game and 6.1 per play on defense, getting outgained by 139 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play.  Those are some of the worst numbers in the NFL through three weeks.

The Steelers have a broken offense and RB Jaylen Warren and TE Jonnu Smith are both questionable.  Aaron Rodgers won't be able to do anything against this blitz-heavy.  They have a broken defense mostly due to injuries.  They are without two starters in LB Alex Highsmith and DE Isaiah Loudermilk, and CB Joey Porter Jr. and SS DeShon Elliott are questionable.  They are relying on a lot of aging veterans and this is one of the worst defenses of the Mike Tomlin era.  Bet the Vikings on the Money Line Sunday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on LA Tech/UTEP OVER 47.5

UTEP is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Miners rank 6th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.1 seconds.  This total of 47.5 is too low for a game involving UTEP this season.

The Miners have a very talented transfer QB in Malachi Nelson.  He was the 2nd-rated QB in the country when he committed to USC.  Nelson has thrown for 1,069 yards and 8 TD and is the perfect fit for this up-tempo offense under offensive-minded head coach Scotty Walden.

Sonny Cumbie is also an offensive-minded head coach.  Since switching QB's to Blake Baker, the LA Tech Bulldogs have thrived offensively the last two weeks scoring 49 points on New Mexico State and 30 on Southern Miss.  Baker is averaging 10.4 yards per attempt, but he also is a dual-threat with 145 rushing yards and 2 scores.  The Bulldogs also prefer to play faster than average ranking 50th in tempo snapping the ball every 25.6 seconds.

Both of UTEP's home games this season where they control the tempo have sailed over the total.  They beat Tennessee Martin 42-17 for 59 combined points easily going over the 49-point total.  They lost 31-25 to Louisiana-Monroe for 56 combined points and a total of 47.  That's a ULM team that plays at the 2nd-slowest tempo in the country and exclusively runs the football, too.  This will be another shootout in El Paso Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Oregon/Penn State NBC ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +3.5

Penn State is getting too much credit for this being a white out game at night.  Oregon is the better team and should not be catching 3.5 points in a game that could easily be decided by a FG either way.  We'll gladly take advantage and grab the value off the key number of 3.

Oregon is absolutely steamrolling its opponents this season opening 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS.  The only game they failed to cover they led Northwestern 34-0 before calling off the dogs and winning 34-14 as 26.5-point favorites after two 4th quarter TD's by the Wildcats in garbage time.

They also beat Montana State 59-13 as 29-point favorites, Oklahoma State 69-3 as 28.5-point favorites and Oregon State 41-7 as 33.5-point favorites.  That win over the Beavers was even a bigger blowout than the final score showed as they outgained them 585 to 147, or by 438 total yards.

I like the fact that the Ducks made easy work of the Beavers because they should still be very fresh despite playing for a 5th consecutive week.  They know they have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for this showdown at Penn State Saturday night.

Penn State is 3-0 SU but 0-3 ATS this season.  The Nittany Lions have played the 228th-ranked schedule in the country, which is 119 spots easier than that of Oregon to this point.  Their three wins came against Nevada 46-11 as 42.5-point favorites, FIU 34-0 as 42-point favorites and Villanova 52-6 as 46.5-point favorites.  Talk about the easiest schedule I've ever seen through three weeks.

Despite playing the more difficult schedule, the Ducks still have the more impressive numbers, especially offensively which is where they'll have a big edge over Penn State.  Oregon is averaging 8.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 4.1 yards per play.  Penn State is averaging 6.4 per play on offense and allowing 3.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.8 yards per play.

The difference in this game is going to be Oregon actually has an elite QB, while the QB position is holding Penn State back once again.  Drew Allar has come up short time and time again against teams with a pulse.  He is only averaging 7.1 yards per attempt thus far despite playing the easiest schedule in the country of all the top teams.

The Ducks have a legit QB in UCLA transfer Dante Moore.  He is completing 74.7% of his passes, averaging 10.1 yards per attempt, and has a 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He is also a dual-threat averaging 6.2 yards per rush.  Allar gives them nothing with his scrambling, averaging 2.7 per attempt despite the soft schedule.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida Atlantic +14

Memphis is overvalued after a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season against the 95th-ranked schedule in the country.  They beat FCS Chattanooga 45-10 as 30.5-point favorites.  That's the same Chattanooga team that went on to lose 45-17 to Tennessee Tech.

Memphis beat Georgia State 38-16 as 14.5-point road favorites in Week 2.  That's the same Georgia State team that lost 63-7 to Ole Miss and 70-21 to Vanderbilt.  Memphis beat Troy 28-7, which lost starting QB Goose Crowder on the opening drive to injury, and the drop off to the backup was enormous.  Kilcrease finished 10-of-29 for 65 yards and an INT in Crowder's place.

I can't say I'm 100% sure how good Memphis is, but I can say 100% sure they aren't as good as their record and margins of victory would indicate due to the circumstances and softness of their schedule.  I don't like Nevada transfer QB Brendon Lewis, who is a better runner than he is a thrower, which isn't what this Memphis offense is known for.  They are known for having great pocket passers through the years.

This might be Ryan Silverfield's worst team since going 7-6 in 2022.  They only brought back 9 starters this season and lost 14 of their top 15 tacklers on D, each of their top 4 receivers, and leading rusher Mario Anderson who has 1,362 yards and 18 TD last season.  Silverfield had to hit the transfer portal, and I'm just not high on all the replacements.

Memphis is coming off its 'National Championship' game last week in a 32-31 upset home victory over SEC opponent Arkansas as 7-point dogs.  Arkansas led that game 28-10 and took its foot off the gas.  The Razorbacks also fumbled inside the 10-yard line in the closing seconds as they were just trying to set up the game-winning FG.  Memphis did not win that game, Arkansas lost it.

Now Memphis is fat and happy after a 4-0 start and primed for a letdown of its own at Florida Atlantic this week.  This is a FAU team that is coming off a bye week with two full weeks to prepare for Memphis.  That's a huge advantage.  It's also even bigger for first-year head coaches like FAU's Zach Kittley, who was the offensive coordinator at Texas Tech the last three years.

Kittley was able to recruit a lot of offensive talent with players wanting to play in his system.  He nabbed Western Kentucky transfer QB Caden Veltkamp, who is completing 65.2% of his passes for 880 yards and 8 TD in just three games thus far.  WR Easton Messer came with Veltkamp from WKU and has 25 receptions for 213 yards already.  Colorado transfer Asaad Waseem has 14 receptions for 163 yards and 3 TD.  Four starters on the O-Line are from Indiana, Louisville, FSU and Maryland.  The defense is loaded with Power 4 transfers as well.

FAU remains undervalued from a misleading 39-7 loss at Maryland in the opener for Kittley and company.  FAU committed 6 turnovers and was -6 in turnovers.  They were only outgained by 26 yards by the Terrapins.  They came back with a 56-14 home win over Florida A&M as 21.5-point favorites before a 38-28 loss at rival Florida International where they were -2 in turnovers and outgained the Panthers by 70 yards for another misleading final.  Memphis is primed for an upset here, so sprinkle a little on the money line as this 14-point spread is outrageous.  Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Memphis/Florida Atlantic OVER 61

Florida Atlantic is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Owls rank 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 18.7 seconds.  The 2nd-fasted team snaps it every 20.3 seconds, which is WVU under Rich Rodriquez.  FAU is averaging 85 plays per game, 30.3 points per game and 461.7 yards per game through three games.

Zach Kittley was the offensive coordinator at Texas Tech the last three years and the OC at Western Kentucky in 2021.  His offenses are always fast-paced and pass-happy, air raid offenses.  Kittley was able to recruit a lot of offensive talent with players wanting to play in his system.  

He nabbed Western Kentucky transfer QB Caden Veltkamp, who is completing 65.2% of his passes for 880 yards and 8 TD in just three games thus far.  WR Easton Messer came with Veltkamp from WKU and has 25 receptions for 213 yards already.  Colorado transfer Asaad Waseem has 14 receptions for 163 yards and 3 TD.  Four starters on the O-Line are from Indiana, Louisville, FSU and Maryland.

FAU's defense will be a problem all season with just two starters back.  They allowed 39 points to Maryland and 38 to Florida International, which are two mediocre offenses.  Memphis is averaging 35.8 points per game, 438 yards per game and 6.6 per play and will be able to hang a big number on this FAU defense, but I think FAU is more than capable of keeping up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Tennessee/Mississippi State OVER 61.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 20.6 seconds.  What makes that so amazing is that they have just kept their foot on the gas despite blowing out three of their four opponents.  They only know one speed.  They were even going hurry up trying to score up 32 on UAB in the final seconds last week.

Tennessee is 4-0 to the OVER this season combining for 71 points with Syracuse, 89 points with East Tennessee State, 85 points with Georgia and 80 points with UAB.  This total of 61.5 is very short for a game involving Tennessee right now.

The offense got a big upgrade at QB with Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar, who is completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns in four games.  But the defense for Tennessee is a problem allowing 26 points to Syracuse, 44 to Georgia and 24 to UAB.  The Volunteers are without three starters on defense due to injury which is part of the problem.

Mississippi State also profiles as an OVER team ranking 17th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.5 seconds.  QB Blake Shapen is back healthy this season and completing 66.3% of his passes for 882 yards and 7 touchdowns.  He will be up to the task trying to keep up with Tennessee in a shootout this week.

I think this number is lower than it should be due to Mississippi State playing three opponents that profile as under teams in Southern Miss, Arizona State and Northern Illinois.  The one game they went over they did it themselves in a 63-0 win over Alcorn State with a total of 55.5.  The Southern Miss game stayed under because it was the first game of the season, Arizona State ranks 94th in tempo and is a defensive-minded team, and NIU rank 118th in tempo with one of the worst offenses in the country.

Both offenses will be all gas no brakes in this one.  This should be a competitive game so both teams will be looking to keep scoring.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Mississippi State +7.5

It's time to 'buy low' on Mississippi State after a 2-10 season.  Jeff Lebby stepped into a tough situation with just nine returning starters in his first season.  The Bulldogs held their own against many of the top teams in the country losing by 7 to Arizona State, by 10 to Georgia, by 10 to Texas A&M and by 12 to Ole Miss.  Now they will be one of the most improved teams in the country in Year 2 for Lebby.

The Bulldogs return 16 starters and get their stud QB Blake Shapen back from injury after being lost for the year after four starts.  Shapen completed 69% of his passes for 974 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio in those four starts while also rushing for two scores.  Nine starters in all are back on offense as this will be an explosive unit.

But the biggest improvement should come from a defense that allowed 34.1 points and 456 yards per game last season.  Seven starters and four of the top five tacklers are back, plus they added a lot of talent through the portal.  They are bigger up front this year and improved at DE particularly to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

The Bulldogs made easy work of Southern Miss in a 34-17 win as 14-point favorites in the opener.  They led 34-10 before calling off the dogs in the 4th quarter.  They won and covered against a Southern Miss team that many are very high on due to getting Marshall head coach Charlie Huff and many of his players from a team that won the Sun Belt last season.

They are now 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  They avenged their loss to Arizona State last year with a 24-20 upset win as 6.5-point home dogs.  They crushed Alcorn State 63-0 as 42-point favorites.  And they crushed Northern Illinois 38-10 as 24-point favorites.  Now they are getting too many points here in their SEC opener against Tennessee.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

Shapen is completing 66.3% of his passes for 882 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio to prove he is back.  He leads an offense that is scoring 39.8 points per game and averaging 6.7 yards per play.  And that improvement on defense has been real as the Bulldogs are allowing just 11.8 points per game, 264 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.

This will be Tennessee's first true road game of the season.  The Volunteers have beaten up on Syracuse, East Tennessee State and UAB to inflate their numbers.  But they lost 44-41 at home to Georgia in their lone step up game.  And now I wouldn't be surprised to see them fall to 0-2 in SEC play this week.

Tennessee has an elite offense, but the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  They are missing three starters on defense and aren't nearly as strong as they were a year ago on this side of the ball as their defense led them to the 12-team playoff.  Tennessee allowed 26 points to Syracuse, 24 to UAB and 44 to Georgia.  Shapen and company will be able to match them score for score in what will be a hostile atmosphere with cowbells banging in Starkville Saturday afternoon.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +115

The Boston Red Sox just clinched a spot in the playoffs with a win yesterday and celebrated.  They don't care about the results of these final two games as they are now locked into the No. 5 seed in the American League.  They should not be favored over the Detroit Tigers today as a result.

That's especially the case when you consider the Tigers have a lot to play for.  They are tied with the Cleveland Guardians for 1st place in the AL Central and lose out on the tiebreaker.  They also have to fend off the Astros, who are one game behind them for the final wild card spot.

Keider Montera has performed well as a starter this season going 4-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 11 starts.  He will likely be facing a Red Sox lineup full of backups as they will likely rest their guys over these final two games to get them refreshed for the postseason.  Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -6.5

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are absolutely gassed right now.  They will be playing for a 6th consecutive week to open the season after a gut-wrenching 23-21 home loss to Fresno State last week.  Now they have to go to the mainland and face the triple-option offense of Air Force, a very physical brand of football that I don't think they'll handle well at all given how tired they are.

Hawaii QB Micah Alejado is playing through injury and you can tell.  He is only averaging 5.0 yards per pass attempt with a 3-to-4 TD/INT ratio despite playing a very soft schedule.  I is also averaging just 2.0 yards per attempt on the ground.  Hawaii is averaging just 22.0 points per game and 4.6 yards per play despite the soft schedule.

The Rainbow Warriors don't have the firepower to keep up with Air Force, which has proven to be dynamic on offense with new QB Liam Szarka.  He led the Falcons to 37 points and 517 total yards against a very good Boise State defense last week.  Szarka went 13-of-18 passing for 248 yards and 2 touchdowns, while also rushing for 111 yards and a score.  The sophomore could prove to be the next great Air Force QB.

Air Force has a massive rest advantage after having a bye week already this season.  This will be just the 4th game in 5 weeks for Air Force while it's the 6th game in 6 weeks for Hawaii.  The Falcons will be extra motivated after already suffering two MWC losses to Utah State and Boise State.  They won't be taking Hawaii lightly.  Hawaii lost 40-6 at Arizona in its lone trip to the mainland earlier this season.  Bet Air Force Saturday.

15* LSU/Ole Miss ABC ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss PK

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between LSU and Ole Miss.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Ole Miss wants revenge from a 29-26 (OT) loss at LSU last season, and I think they get it at home this time around.

The injury to sophomore QB Austin Simmons was a blessing in disguise for Ole Miss.  It allowed senior QB Trinidad Chambliss to shine and make the decision easy on Lane Kiffin to stick with him moving forward.

Chambliss came in for an injured Simmons to lead the 41-35 home win over Arkansas two weeks ago.  And last week in his first full game as a starter, Chambliss led the Rebels to a 45-10 home win over Tulane.  That was a tricky sandwich spot coming off SEC wins over Kentucky and Arkansas, and with LSU on deck, and Chambliss led the way.

That was a Tulane team with impressive wins over Duke and Northwestern prior to facing Ole Miss.  The Rebels nearly pitched a shutout outgaining the Green Wave 558 to 282, or by 276 total yards.  Chambliss is completing 67.7% of his passes for 719 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 11.6 per attempt.  But his biggest asset is his running ability, rushing for 195 yards and two scores already in limited action.

LSU is also 4-0 but it's easy to knock some of their wins.  Their 17-10 win at Clemson looks much less impressive now with Clemson sitting at 1-3 on the season and nearly losing to Troy.  They were upset on the road at Georgia Tech and upset at home as 17.5-point favorites to Syracuse.

LSU also only beat Florida 20-10 despite being +4 in turnovers and the Gators turning it over 5 times to hand them the win.  Florida also sits at 1-3 with losses to South Florida at home and a 26-7 blowout at Miami after losing to LSU.

This LSU offense looks broken, and QB Garrett Nussmeier is clearly playing through injury.  I just don't think the offense has the firepower to keep up with Kiffin and company, and the defense hasn't been tested by a decent offense yet and both Florida and Clemson have looked rough on that side of the ball, and the other two opponents were LA Tech and SE Louisiana.  LSU only managed 23 points against LA Tech as well.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.