|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-02-12||Indianapolis Colts +5 v. Detroit Lions||35-33||Win||100||67 h 14 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +5
The Colts have been underrated all season. Nobody picked this team to be 7-4 at this point, let alone win seven games all year. They are right in the middle of the AFC playoff hunt due to their surprising start. This is a team that is going to give it their all every week as they play for head coach Chuck Pagano, who is battling cancer.
Detroit has to be deflated after falling to Houston on Thanksgiving Day 34-31 in overtime for yet another heartbreaking loss. This team could suffer a hangover from that defeat as its playoff hopes have all but been crushed. Detroit does have four wins this season, but three of those came by 4 points or less. Considering the Lions have just one win all season by more than 4 points, I'll gladly side with the value and the Colts +5.
This play falls into a system that is 32-12 (72.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS)
|12-01-12||Boston Celtics v. Milwaukee Bucks -3||88-91||Push||0||10 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3
The Boston Celtics are short-handed right now as they are without Rajon Rondo for one more game as he serves the second of his two-game suspension tonight. The Celtics won without him at home against Portland last night, but they won't be so fortunate tonight.
Boston is a team that is getting up there in age and it doesn't handle these second of back-to-back situations very well because of it. That's especially the case tonight as they will be without the youthful Rondo, who can sometimes pull his team through these situations with his energy.
Milwaukee comes in highly motivated for a win after dropping two straight, and five of its last six games overall. It has faced the Heat, the Bulls twice, and the Knicks during this stretch, so the schedule makers have not been kind to them. I just think this is a great time to back the Bucks as they are motivated against a depleted Celtics' squad.
The Celtics are 14-29 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 39-14-2 ATS in their last 55 vs. NBA Atlantic. Boston is 8-22 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Milwaukee is 11-1 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the Bucks Saturday.
|12-01-12||Nebraska v. Wisconsin +3||31-70||Win||100||51 h 7 m||Show|
15* Nebraska/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship BAILOUT on Wisconsin +3
The Wisconsin Badgers want revenge from a 27-30 loss at Nebraska earlier this season on September 29th as an 11-point underdog. They blew a 27-10 second-half lead in that contest, allowing the Corhuskers to score 20 unanswered points to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Nebraska has been getting away with murder all season, but that's not going to happen again Saturday. The Huskers have escaped with so many close victories over the final minutes of games that you would almost think it's magical.
The Huskers have five wins by 9 points or less, and every one of those games came right down to the wire with the opposing team blowing it in the end. Nebraska is nowhere near as good as its 10-2 record would indicate, and it is not even the better team in this contest.
Beating a team twice in the same season is extremely difficult, especially after the nature of the way the Huskers came back to win by 3 points in their first meeting at home. On a neutral field this time around, I have no doubt that the Badgers have their revenge and earn a trip to the Rose Bowl with a victory.
Wisconsin has an edge in the running game, which is going to be the difference in this game. Both teams rely heavily on the run, and the Badgers stop it better. They rank 13th in the country in rushing defense (111.3 yards/game), allowing just 3.4 yards/carry. Nebraska ranks 72nd against the run (166.2 yards/game), yielding 4.2 yards/carry.
Nebraska is 10-22 ATS in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992. Wisconsin is 21-8 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=450 yards/game since 1992. The Badgers are 21-9 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. After closing out the season with back-to-back overtime losses to Ohio State and Penn State, the Badgers are battle-tested heading into this one. Roll with Wisconsin Saturday.
|12-01-12||Florida State v. Georgia Tech +14||Top||21-15||Win||100||51 h 53 m||Show|
20* FSU/Georgia Tech ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech +14
The Yellow Jackets
|12-01-12||Alabama v. Georgia +8||32-28||Win||100||47 h 53 m||Show|
15* Alabama/Georgia SEC Championship No-Brainer on Georgia +8
The Bulldogs have certainly saved their best football for last. After a shaky start to the season due to suspensions to key players, they have rebounded nicely to win the SEC East for a second straight season. They certainly have a ton of momentum heading into the SEC Championship because of it.
Georgia has won six straight games while going 4-1 ATS in its last five contests dating back to a 17-9 win over Florida, its biggest win of the season. It has outscored each of its last four opponents all by 27 points or more, including a 42-10 victory over Georgia Tech last week.
The biggest difference in this team is that it has finally started to play up to its potential defensively. It has allowed 14 points or less in five straight games, giving up an average of just 8.6 points per game in the process. This was one of the best stop units in the country last season, and it
|12-01-12||Delaware +20 v. Duke||50-88||Loss||-110||4 h 51 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Delaware +20
The Duke Blue Devils are in a huge letdown spot here at home against the Delaware Blue Hens. They are coming off back-to-back wins over Top 5 teams in Louisville and Ohio State. There's no way the Blue Devils will be able to get up emotionally for this game after playing those two schools.
Delaware is one of the most underrated teams in the country. This is much better than a 2-5 team, but what matters is their 5-1 ATS record. They have yet to play a home game this season, and they have played some very good teams extremely tough on the road.
They lost at LaSalle 66-73 as a 7.5-point underdog, at Temple 75-80 as a 12-point underdog, and on a neutral court against Kansas State 63-66 as an 8.5-point dog. They also won at Virginia 59-53 as a 6-point dog. Only one of the Blue Hens' five losses has come by more than 7 points.
Duke's biggest margin of victory this season is 21 points, which came at home against Florida Gulf Coast. They also beat Georgia State at home by 19 points. I have no doubt that Delaware is better than both of those teams, thus they should be able to stay within 20 with no problem. You throw in the situation, and it's not even a question.
The Blue Devils are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games. Duke is 2-10 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Devils are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet Delaware Saturday.
|11-30-12||Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 205||103-122||Loss||-110||11 h 37 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 205
I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Nuggets and Lakers. For one, playing on the National TV stage always seems to bring out better effort defensively by both teams. Also, the Mike D'Antoni factor has Lakers' totals inflated right now.
That was certainly the case in their 77-79 home loss to Indiana last time out with a total set of 196 points. The Lakers are only giving up 95.5 points/game overall, including 91.3 points/game at home. This is a team that relies on defense to win games, and one that won't be explosive offensively until Steve Nash returns.
Denver is going to be tired following its 105-106 loss at Golden State last night. This is an improved defensive team as well as the Nuggets are only allowing 98.7 points/game this season. They are also down a bit offensively from last season as they average just 99.7 points/game.
When you look at recent history in this series, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER tonight. The Lakers and Nuggets have combined to score 204 or less points in 12 of their last 13 meetings, which makes for a 12-1 (92%) system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-30-12||UCLA Bruins +8.5 v. Stanford||Top||24-27||Win||100||31 h 18 m||Show|
25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA +8.5
UCLA simply suffered a letdown last week against Stanford. It was coming off its biggest win of the season with a victory over USC the previous week that assured it a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Essentially, the Bruins really had nothing to play for against the Cardinal last week.
|11-30-12||Washington Wizards +13 v. New York Knicks||87-108||Loss||-110||8 h 37 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +13
The Washington Wizards are undervalued at this point of the season due to their 1-12 start. This team finally has some confidence after beating the Portland Trail Blazers last time out to snap their 12-game losing streak to start the season.
Washington is a much better team than its record would indicate, and there's no question that it should have more wins than one by now. Ten of its 12 losses have come by 10 points or less, which is why it is showing such great value tonight as a 13-point underdog. The Wizards have had a chance to win every game but two in the closing minutes of the 4th quarter.
The New York Knicks are way overvalued right now due to their 10-4 start. There's no question that this is a quality team under head coach Mike Woodson, but they are getting too much respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers tonight. New York could have a hard time getting up emotionally to face the team with the worst record in the NBA.
This play falls into a system that is 42-16 (72.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, first half of the season. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Wizards Friday.
|11-30-12||Northern Illinois v. Kent State +7.5||44-37||Win||100||26 h 48 m||Show|
15* NIU/Kent State MAC Championship No-Brainer on Kent State +7.5
The Northern Illinois Huskies are way overvalued heading into this MAC Championship. Kent State has been underrated all season and should not be catching a touchdown in a game I believe they can win outright. I'll take the points for some insurance.
Northern Illinois has not been playing all that sharp of football lately. They beat Toledo 31-24 at home as a 10-point favorite on November 14th, then went on the road to beat Eastern Michigan 14-7 as a 20.5-point favorite on November 23rd. This will be their toughest test of the season thus far.
Kent State is 11-1 this season while dominating along the way. Ten of its 11 wins have come by 7 points or more. The fact that this team is 10-2 ATS on the season shows how undervalued they have been all year. They'll continue making backers money at the pay window tonight.
The biggest reason I like Kent State in this contest is its ability to stop the run. It ranks 27th in the country against the run (129.3 yards/game) while allowing 3.7 yards/carry. That's impressive considering the 12 opponents it has faced average 169 rushing yards and 4.4/carry on the season. Northern Illinois rushes for 245.0 yards/game, so stopping the run is extremely important in this one.
Kent State is 7-0 ATS after playing a conference game this season. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Kent State is 7-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Kent State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Golden Flashes. Take Kent State Friday.
|11-30-12||GEORGIA v. SOUTH FLORIDA -3||53-64||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -3
The South Florida Bulls have been one of the most underrated teams in the country dating back to last season. They made the NCAA Tournament last season and were a covering machine down the stretch, especially at home.
The Bulls return four of their top five scorers from last season in F Toarlyn Fitzpatrick (13.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG), G Jawanza Poland (11.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG), G Anthony Collins (7.8 PPG, 8.2 APG) and F Victor Rudd (7.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG). With this nucleus, I would be shocked not to see South Florida in the Big Dance by season's end.
Georgia is just 2-4 this season with its only wins coming against Jacksonville and East Tennessee State at home. It is 0-2 away from home this season, but this will be its first true road game of the year.
The Bulldogs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. win. The Bulls are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 Friday games. South Florida is 10-2-2 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take South Florida Friday.
|11-29-12||New Orleans Saints +3.5 v. Atlanta Falcons||Top||13-23||Loss||-104||30 h 6 m||Show|
20* Saints/Falcons NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans +3.5
The Saints simply need this win more as they sit at just 5-6 on the season. They cannot afford more than one more loss the rest of the season if they want to make the playoffs, and they may just have to win out to do so. They
|11-29-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -5.5||100-105||Loss||-105||9 h 39 m||Show|
15* Spurs/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Miami -5.5
The Miami Heat should be a bigger favorite tonight at home against the San Antonio Spurs. They come in on a ridiculous four days' rest having last played on November 24th. They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor tonight, and I look for them to run the Spurs to death.
The reason the Heat will look to push the tempo is the fact that San Antonio will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. This is the toughest situation in the NBA. The Spurs will not be able to match the Heat's energy level, and as a result they'll get blown out of the building.
A blowout in Miami's favor has been a familiar result in recent meetings between these teams. Miami has won the last two meetings by a combined 52 points. It beat San Antonio 110-80 at home on 03/14/11, and then 120-98 on 01/17/12. I look for a similar result in this one given the situation coming in.
The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest. These three trends combine for a 19-1 (95%) system backing Miami. Roll with the Heat Thursday.
|11-29-12||Louisville v. Rutgers UNDER 44||20-17||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
15* Louisville/Rutgers ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 44
This game between Louisville and Rutgers is for all the marbles with the Big East Championship on the line. Both teams features below-average offenses and great defenses, and I look for a defensive battle tonight because of it.
Rutgers is giving up just 13.7 points/game overall, including 12.0 points/game at home. It ranks 14th in the country in total defense at 317.4 yards/game allowed. Louisville is yielding 24.2 points/game while ranking 26th in the country in total defense at 345.5 yards/game.
Rutgers has really struggled offensively this season as it ranks 100th in the country in total offense at 341.4 yards/game. Louisville has been decent offensively at 44th in the land with 431.3 yards/game, but it has yet to face a defense as dominant as the one it will see tonight.
I look for this contest to result in a similar final score to last year's 16-14 home victory by Louisville. The Cardinals managed just 309 total yards while limiting the Scarlet Knights to 298 total yards. I don't foresee either team topping 20 points in this one, either.
Rutgers is 7-0 to the UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Scarlet Knights are 7-0 to the UNDER after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Scarlet Knights last 4 games following a ATS loss. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-28-12||Tulsa +16 v. Wichita State||60-86||Loss||-110||8 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa +16
Wichita State is way overvalued heading into this home showdown with Tulsa Wednesday. The Shockers have opened the season 6-0, creating expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to.
This team lost its top five starters from a year ago and will not be as strong as last year's squad because of it. Wichita State really only has one good win this season with a 53-51 victory at VCU. Five of its six victories have come by 16 points or less.
I believe Tulsa, with new head coach Danny Manning, will easily be able to stay within 16 points of Wichita State. In fact, Tulsa is off to a 4-2 start this season with both losses coming by 16 points or less. Guard James Woodard has led the way with 17.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game thus far.
This play falls into a system that is 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (WICHITA ST) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=39% on the season, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 28% or less.
Tulsa is 6-0 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons. The Shockers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less. Roll with Tulsa Wednesday.
|11-28-12||Brooklyn Nets v. Boston Celtics -3.5||Top||95-83||Loss||-107||8 h 52 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3.5
This is a big letdown spot for the Brooklyn Nets. They are coming off a huge 96-89 overtime victory over their new biggest rivals in the New York Knicks on Monday. Having already beaten Boston 102-97 at home on November 15th less than two weeks ago, the Nets will have a hard time getting up emotionally for this one.
Boston wants revenge from that 102-97 loss as it gets Brooklyn at home this time around. The Celtics are also playing very solid basketball over the past month as they have won eight over their last 12 games overall. Brooklyn has been dealt an easy schedule thus far as eight of its 13 games have come at home. It is just 2-3 on the road this year.
The home team has won five of the last six meetings in this series. Boston has won six of the last eight meetings. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
The Nets are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 vs. NBA Atlantic opponents. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Brooklyn is 3-14 ATS in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.
|11-28-12||Portland Trail Blazers v. Washington Wizards +3.5||82-84||Win||100||7 h 22 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +3.5
The Washington Wizards are 0-12 on the season. As a result, the betting public doesn't want to touch them. I'm predicting they get their first win of the season tonight against a very beatable Portland team, but I'll take the points for some insurance.
Washington has had several chances to get that first win, and it is a much better team than its record would indicate. Five of its last six losses came by 7 points or less with the lone exception being the Spurs last time out.
Portland is just 6-8 on the season and a very beatable team. It has lost three straight road games to the Suns, Nets and Pistons to fall to 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS away from home this season. It is getting outscored by a whopping 8.2 points/game on the road in 2012.
The Trail Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. Portland is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Wizards Wednesday.
|11-27-12||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Sacramento Kings -109||Top||97-89||Loss||-109||10 h 19 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings ML -109
I'll side with the Sacramento Kings on the Money Line Tuesday at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Sacramento is undervalued in the early going, and it should be a bigger favorite here with the way it has been playing of late.
Sacramento has gone 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three games overall. It has blowout home wins over the Lakers (113-97) and the Jazz (108-97) during this stretch. Its only loss came at Utah (102-104) as a 9-point underdog. All four of the Kings' wins have come at home this year.
Minnesota is playing its worst basketball of the season heading into this one. It is 0-5 straight up and 0-5 against the spread in its last five games overall. That includes losses to Charlotte, Portland and Golden State twice. A big reason for the Timberwolves' struggles is that they are banged up health-wise.
The home team is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series dating back to last season. The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games overall. These five trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Kings. Also, the Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento. Bet the Kings Tuesday.
|11-27-12||North Carolina +10 v. Indiana||59-83||Loss||-109||10 h 43 m||Show|
15* UNC/Indiana ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on North Carolina +10
The Indiana Hoosiers are way overvalued tonight due to their 6-0 start straight up and their 5-1 mark against the spread. They are also the No. 1 ranked team in the country, which comes with expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public going forward that they cannot live up to.
Indiana has played an extremely soft schedule with games against Bryant, North Dakota State, Sam Houston State, Ball State, Georgia and Georgetown. The Hoyas took the Hoosiers to overtime on a neutral court, so this team is certainly beatable.
North Carolina is undervalued right now due to its 71-82 loss to Butler on a neutral court. The Bulldogs got hot and shot 47.2% from the field. The Tar Heels have not allowed another team to shoot better than 40% this season. They responded with a 112-70 victory over Chaminade last time out to get back on track.
"We tried to challenge them the last couple of days that we've got to play better than that," head coach Roy Williams said of the Tar Heels' trip to Maui where they finished third. "I haven't noticed the extra energy or the bounce because I've worked the dickens out of them."
Williams is a a perfect 7-0 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of North Carolina. The Tar Heels are actually winning in this spot by an average score of 75.6 to 74.1. They are clearly undervalued heading into this one. Bet North Carolina Tuesday.
|11-27-12||Iowa v. Virginia Tech -1.5||79-95||Win||100||7 h 29 m||Show|
15* ACC/Big Ten Challenge Tuesday Line Mistake on Virginia Tech -1.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies should be a much bigger favorite at home tonight against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Iowa is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers in the early going, while Virginia Tech is getting none.
The Hokies are going under the radar because they switched head coaches in the offseason. James Johnson is fully capable of turning around this program, and he's off to a good start. Johnson had guided Virginia Tech to a perfect 5-0 record thus far.
Virginia Tech returned three starters from last year's team, including leading scorer Erick Green (15.6 PPG), who scored nearly a quarter of the team's points last season (65.1 PPG). Also back are Jarell Eddie (9.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and Cadarian Rainers (5.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG). Green leads the team in scoring (24.4 PPG) while Eddie (18.8 PPG) is second thus far.
The Hawkeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. Iowa is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. ACC opponents. The Hawkeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Hokies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take Virginia Tech Tuesday.
|11-26-12||Carolina Panthers v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 41||Top||30-22||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
20* Panthers/Eagles ESPN Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 41
Oddsmakers have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles. The books and the betting public are overreacting here to the losses of Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy for the Eagles.
Nick Foles and Bryce Brown will be taking their place, and I believe the Eagles still have one of the top offenses in the league with these two at the forefront. Philly ranks a very respectable 13th in the NFL in total offense at 361.8 yards/game.
It will be up against a Carolina defense that ranks 18th in the league at 350.7 yards/game allowed, and one that is without several key players due to injury. The Panthers are giving up 24.3 points/game this season.
The Eagles are giving up 25.2 points/game overall and 26.8 points/game at home. Cam Newton should have his way with a Philadelphia pass defense which has allowed a combined 143.6 passer rating over the past four weeks, surrendering 11 touchdown passes and making no interceptions.
Carolina is 8-1 to the OVER in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons. The Panthers are 12-3 to the OVER in road games after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992. The OVER is 9-2 in Panthers last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The OVER is 6-1-1 in Eagles last 8 home games. The OVER is 6-0 in Eagles last 6 games in Week 12. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-26-12||Cleveland Cavaliers +12.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies||78-84||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +12.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be catching double-digit points to the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. This line is simply an overreaction for point guard Kyrie Irving being out for at least three more weeks with a broken index finger.
Cleveland has been very competitive without Irving. It has gone 3-0 ATS it its last three games without him, which just shows that he is overvalued as a player when it comes to setting spreads. The Cavs beat Philly 92-83 as a 4.5-point dog, lost at Orlando 104-108 as a 4.5-point dog, and lost at Miami 108-110 after blowing a late 7-point lead as a 15-point dog.
Memphis is certainly overvalued right now due to winning nine of its last 10 games overall. It has created expectations for itself against the spread that it simply cannot live up to right now. Memphis' biggest spread so far has been 7 points, so this 12.5-point spread is by far the most it has been favored by this season.
The Cavaliers have lost their last three meetings at Memphis by a combined 17 points with their biggest loss coming by 8 points. In fact, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Memphis. The Grizzlies are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Cavaliers Monday.
|11-26-12||New York Knicks v. Brooklyn Nets +1||89-96||Win||100||7 h 14 m||Show|
15* Knicks/Nets TNT Monday No-Brainer on Brooklyn +1
The Brooklyn Nets should not be an underdog at home to the New York Knicks in what is going to be a great rivalry for years to come. I'll side with the undervalued home dog in this one as the Nets take care of business in their new building.
Brooklyn has been dominant at home this season. It is 6-1 SU & 4-2-1 ATS through seven home contests, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points/game on average while limiting them to just 91.4 points/game.
The Knicks are a quality team under head coach Mike Woodson, but I simply believe they are overvalued due to their 9-3 record. All three of their losses have come on the road this season as they are giving up 101.0 points/game away from home.
Both teams are in a tough spot as each will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. However, I believe that favors the Nets a lot more considering they have the deeper bench. The Knicks really only go 8 guys deep, while the Nets go as many as 11 deep.
The Nets are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Brooklyn is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Nets are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Knicks are 7-19 ATS after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1996. Take the Nets Monday.
|11-25-12||Green Bay Packers +3 v. NY Giants||10-38||Loss||-111||25 h 1 m||Show|
15* Packers/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay +3
The Packers are rolling right now and it would be pretty foolish to bet against them with how well they are playing. They have won five straight while going 4-1 ATS in the process. They
|11-25-12||West Virginia v. Oklahoma +2||70-77||Win||100||6 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +2
The Oklahoma Sooners are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Lon Kruger is one of the most underrated head coaches in the business, and he'll turn this program around after winning just 15 games in his first year on the job last season.
Oklahoma is off to a great start with a 3-1 record and its only loss coming to Gonzaga. Kruger returned all five starters from last year's team, including three double-digit scorers in SG Steven Pledger (16.2 PPG), F, Romero Osby (12.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and F Andrew Fitzgerald (12.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG). Osby and Pledger are their No. 1 and No. 2 scorers this season, respectively.
West Virginia is clearly down this season with a 1-2 start that has featured a 34-point loss to Gonzaga and another loss to Davidson. The Mountaineers had to replace their two leading scorers from a year ago in Kevin Jones and Darryl Bryant, who combined for almost 37 PPG. They haven't been able to recover.
The Mountaineers are 20-44 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less since 1997. Bob Huggins is 12-26 ATS when the line if +3 to -3 as the coach of West Virginia. Huggins is 14-27 ATS when playing their 3rd game in a week as the coach of West Virginia. The Mountaineers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Oklahoma Sunday.
|11-25-12||Baltimore Ravens v. San Diego Chargers +2||16-13||Loss||-110||21 h 36 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Diego +2
Taking a closer look at the numbers, I believe the Chargers are actually the superior team and should be the favorite in this contest. Yes, they have given some games away, but the Ravens have basically won all of their close games while catching plenty of breaks along the way. That
|11-25-12||Detroit Pistons +12 v. New York Knicks||100-121||Loss||-110||3 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +12
The New York Knicks are way overvalued due to their 8-3 start. They have created expectations for themselves from oddsmakers and the betting public that they simply cannot live up to because of it. Detroit is undervalued due to its 3-10 start as the betting public doesn't really want to touch the Pistons.
New York has started showing signs of coming back down to reality here in recent weeks. They have lost two straight to Dallas (111-114) and Houston (103-131) coming in. I do believe this will be a playoff team this year, but the Knicks are not as good as their perception after an 8-1 start. As a result, they are overvalued.
Detroit is really coming around of late. It has won three of its last five contests, including blowout wins over the 76ers (94-76) and Celtics (103-83). This team is going to be improved from a year ago as the season progresses. It's just that they started 0-8 so the perception on them is down, which provides us with excellent line value game to game, especially here tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, first half of the season. Take the Pistons Sunday.
|11-25-12||Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals||Top||10-34||Loss||-119||18 h 32 m||Show|
25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Oakland Raiders +9.5
This line is simply an overreaction from recent results between these two teams. There's no way the Bengals should be favored by 9.5 points against almost any team in the league. That's why I believe there is some serious line value with the Oakland Raiders in this one.
Public perception right now says that the Bengals are a great team because of back-to-back blowout victories over the Giants and Chiefs. With those two wins, they have created expectations against the spread that they simply cannot live up to. The betting public loves this team right now, which is why it's time to fade them.
Public perception is way down on the Oakland Raiders after three straight losses, including blowouts at the hands of the Ravens and Saints in their last two contests. Well, the Ravens and Saints are two of the best teams in the league. This will be a much easier task Sunday against the 5-5 Bengals, who I believe are way overrated.
This play falls into a system that is 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (OAKLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13.
This system just goes to show you how teams that have been blown out in recent weeks tend to show excellent value in their next contest. That's certainly the case in this one folks. Bet the Raiders Sunday.
|11-24-12||Columbia v. San Francisco||59-79||Win||100||11 h 49 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco PK
San Francisco is 2-1 on the season with its only loss coming to Stanford 62-74 on a neutral court. This team has been a great bet at home throughout the years. Columbia is certainly overrated heading into this contest due to its 3-1 start. It's coming off a huge win at Villanova, and this is certainly a letdown spot after that victory.
The Dons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. San Francisco is 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall. The Dons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. San Francisco is 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet San Francisco Saturday.
|11-24-12||Los Angeles Lakers -1 v. Dallas Mavericks||115-89||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers -1
Off two straight losses, the Los Angeles Lakers are highly motivated for a victory here Saturday night against the Dallas Mavericks. I believe they get it against one of the most overrated teams in the league.
Dallas is 9-24 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Dallas is 18-41-2 ATS in their last 61 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Mavs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Roll with the Lakers Saturday.
|11-24-12||Stanford -1.5 v. UCLA||35-17||Win||100||93 h 52 m||Show|
15* Stanford/UCLA Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford -1.5
The UCLA Bruins are in a huge letdown spot here. They picked up their biggest win in years with a 38-28 home victory over USC last Saturday, which won them the Pac-12 South title and a trip to the conference championship game.
Stanford is coming off a huge win over Oregon as well, but it still has some work to do to win the Pac-12 North. It would clinch the division title with a win over UCLA Saturday.
I'm not saying UCLA is going to let Stanford win, but it would much rather face the Cardinal in the Pac-12 Championship than Oregon. Either way, when you look at the scenario, there's no question that Stanford is going to be the more motivated team heading into this one.
A great way to compare teams is to look at common opponents. Stanford and UCLA have played the same six opponents this season. The Cardinal are 6-0 against those six teams, outscoring them by 15.0 points/game. The Bruins are 4-2 against those six teams, outscoring them by 11.5 points/game.
The Cardinal have by far the better defense in this one. They are giving up just 16.9 points/game overall, including 10.8 points/game on the road, while ranking 18th in the country in total defense (328.4 yards/game). UCLA is giving up 25.0 points/game while ranking 80th in total defense (420.4 yards/game).
Stanford is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with UCLA, outscoring the Bruins a combined 114-35. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Cardinal are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
The Cardinal are 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 games overall. Stanford is 9-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinal are 8-1 ATS in all road games over the last 2 seasons. Bet Stanford Saturday.
|11-24-12||Wisconsin v. Penn State -2.5||Top||21-24||Win||100||93 h 49 m||Show|
25* College Football BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -2.5
The Nittany Lions have been undervalued all season due to their problems off the field with the Sandusky scandal. On the field, this has been one of the best teams in the Big Ten. They have gone 7-4 overall, including 8-2-1 ATS to prove that they have been undervalued by oddsmakers all year.
This is Senior Day for Penn State, and since they are serving a postseason ban, they won
|11-24-12||Texas Tech +3 v. Baylor||45-52||Loss||-120||89 h 52 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +3
This is a huge letdown spot for Baylor after such a big win over Kansas State. It
|11-24-12||Michigan v. Ohio State -3.5||21-26||Win||100||86 h 23 m||Show|
15* Michigan/Ohio State ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Ohio State -3.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes have incredibly managed to stay focused throughout the season despite knowing they have to serve a postseason ban. First-year head coach Urban Meyer has done an excellent job with these players, and there
|11-24-12||Rutgers v. Pittsburgh -2||6-27||Win||100||86 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh -2
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have absolutely nothing to play for Saturday. They are in a two-way battle with Louisville for 1st place in the Big East. Well, they could lose this game against Pitt and beat Louisville next week to win the conference.
Even if Rutgers wins this game against Pitt, it would still need to beat Louisville next week to win the Big East provided the Cardinals beat UConn this week, which is almost a foregone conclusion. There's no question that these Rutgers players know that this is a meaningless game against Pitt.
Meanwhile, the Panthers still need to win their final two games to become bowl eligible, so it certainly means something to them. Plus, it would make their season to knock off the top team in the Big East this Saturday.
Pittsburgh will come in more prepared mentally and physically to win Saturday. Aside from the fact that Rutgers has nothing to play for, Pitt will be coming off its bye week. That means it will have two full weeks to rest and prepare for the Scarlet Knights.
This is Senior Day for the Panthers, and these players would love nothing more than to send senior quarterback Tino Sunseri out with a victory. Sunseri has completed 67.3 percent of his passes this season and has thrown only two interceptions - none in 202 attempts over his last seven games.
Pittsburgh is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 13.8 points/game. The Panthers are 11-2 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Pitt is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Panthers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. loss. Take Pittsburgh Saturday.
|11-23-12||Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets OVER 201||91-102||Loss||-110||23 h 41 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Warriors/Nuggets OVER 201
Oddsmakers have set the bar too low Friday night between these two potent offensive teams in the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors. I have no doubt they'll combine to score over 201 points as both come in well-rested and ready to get up and down the floor.
Neither team has been putting up points to their full potential to this point, which is the reason this total is much lower than it should be. Denver has been one of the best offensive teams in the league since George Karl took over, but one of the worst defensive squads. That will be the case once again by season's end.
Denver is scoring 102.0 points/game at home this season. Golden State is allowing 101.1 points/game on the road this season. The Warriors are 4-0 OVER in their last 4 games overall with three of those contests coming on the road. All three of those road games saw 204 or more combined points.
Golden State and Denver have combined to score 207 or more points in six straight meetings. In fact, they have combined to score 207 or more points in 15 of their last 16 meetings. That makes for a 15-1 (94%) system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-23-12||LSU v. Arkansas +12.5||20-13||Win||100||65 h 53 m||Show|
15* LSU/Arkansas CBS Friday No-Brainer on Arkansas +12.5
The LSU Tigers don
|11-23-12||Nebraska v. Iowa +15||Top||13-7||Win||100||62 h 23 m||Show|
20* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa +15
The Iowa Hawkeyes should not be more than a two touchdown underdog at home to the Nebraska Cornhuskers Friday. Kinnick Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and the Huskers aren't about to walk into it and crush the Hawkeyes.
Since Iowa is 4-7 on the season, it will not be going to a bowl game. On Senior Day, and with the motivation of trying to spoil Nebraska's season, the Hawkeyes are sure to give it everything they have. They will treat this contest like their bowl game since it will be the final time they take the field this season.
Nebraska is one of the most overrated teams in the entire country. It is nowhere near as good as its 9-2 record would indicate. The Huskers have gotten away with murder several times this season, squeaking out wins in the closing seconds in victories over Wisconsin (30-27), Northwestern (29-28), Michigan State (28-24) and Penn State (32-23). This team has simply caught all the breaks this season.
Iowa is 16-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=230 rushing yards/game since 1992. It is winning in this spot by an average of 5.5 points per game. The Hawkeyes are 19-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992. It is winning in this spot by 10.5 points per game.
The Hawkeyes are 10-1 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs since 1992. Iowa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. The Hawkeyes are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. loss. The Cornhuskers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Nebraska is 25-51-2 ATS in its last 78 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Bet Iowa Friday.
|11-22-12||TCU +7 v. Texas||20-13||Win||100||50 h 60 m||Show|
15* TCU/Texas ESPN Thursday Night BAILOUT on TCU +7
The Horned Frogs clearly have the better defense in this one, which gives them a chance to keep it close. They are giving up 24.0 points per game this season while ranking 16th in the country in total defense at 326.3 yards per game. It is giving up a solid 374.3 yards per game in conference play, which is saying something in a league comprised of the best offenses in the country.
Texas is yielding 29.1 points per game this season while ranking 85th in the country in total defense at 429.6 yards per game. It has been horrible on this side of the ball in Big 12 play, giving up 34.7 points and 473.0 total yards per game. TCU is averaging 29.7 points and 427.1 total yards per game in conference play, so it should be able to move the ball and score points without a problem Thursday
TCU has played its best football on the road this season. It is 4-1 away from home this year while outscoring opponents 29.2 to 23.4, or by an average of 5.8 points per game. It has road wins over Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas and SMU with its only loss coming at Oklahoma State.
The Horned Frogs are 10-2 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. TCU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. The Longhorns are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with TCU Thursday.
|11-22-12||Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys -3||Top||38-31||Loss||-115||73 h 51 m||Show|
25* NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -3
The Cowboys are back into the NFC East race after their win over the Cleveland Browns last week. They now trail the New York Giants by just one game for the top spot in this division. When you look at the numbers, you could argue that Dallas is one of the top teams in the league, rather than one that is .500.
Dallas ranks 11th in the league in total offense at 367.4 yards per game and 7th in total defense at 318.0 yards per game. It is outgaining opponents by 49.4 yards per game, which is one of the better margins in the NFL. It is a sign that this team is better than its 5-5 record would indicate.
While Washington does have a good offense, it hasn
|11-22-12||Houston Texans -3 v. Detroit Lions||34-31||Push||0||68 h 23 m||Show|
15* Texans/Lions NFL Early ANNIHILATOR on Houston -3
The Texans have been one of the top teams in the league this season. They have looked as impressive as anyone en route to their 9-1 start. Getting them as only a field goal favorite against anyone is certainly worth a look.
The Lions had a chance to get back in the playoff hunt if they were to beat the Green Bay Packers last Sunday. Instead, they gave the game away, blowing a 20-14 lead late to fall to 4-6 on the season. They now realize their playoff hopes are slim to none, and they are likely to suffer a hangover from that defeat.
Houston struggled with Jacksonville last week, needing overtime to dismantle the Jaguars 43-37. It was probably taking them too lightly and it likely wasn
|11-21-12||Pittsburgh v. Michigan -2.5||62-67||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
15* Pitt/Michigan ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on Michigan -2.5
The Michigan Wolverines should be a much heavier favorite over the Pittsburgh Panthers in the NIT Tip Off Championship. Despite being the No. 4 team in the country, I believe the Wolverines aren't getting the respect they deserve in the early going from oddsmakers.
Michigan has won its first three games all by 30 points or more. The last time it did that it went on to win the National Championship in 1989. The Wolverines have returned three starters, including their two leading scorers in Trey Burke (14.8 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.6 PPG). Burke is averaging 18.3 points while Hardaway Jr. is averaging 17.3 through three games.
Pittsburgh had a down season last year, and I have seen nothing from them to indicate that they will be improved this year. The Panthers lost two double-digit scorers from last season and they are raw this year. Sure, they are 4-0 on the season, but all four of those wins came at home against weak competition. They even needed to rally from 18 points down to beat Oakland in overtime last time out despite coming into the game as a 21-point favorite.
The Wolverines are 32-14-1 ATS in their last 47 games overall. Pittsburgh is 0-7 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons. Michigan is 22-9-1 ATS in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Panthers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with Michigan Wednesday.
|11-21-12||Denver Nuggets -3 v. Minnesota Timberwolves||Top||101-94||Win||100||8 h 57 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -3
The Denver Nuggets will crush the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight in an absolute mismatch. Denver is undervalued due to its 5-6 start against a tough schedule, and I still believe this will be one of the top teams in the West by season's end.
Minnesota is in a world of hurt right now due to injuries. It is without Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, Chase Budinger and Brandon Roy. The Timberwolves are overvalued due to their 5-4 start against a much softer schedule. They have lost their last two games to Charlotte and Golden State, both at home, and they have no chance against the Nuggets tonight.
Denver is 19-2 in its last 21 meetings with Minnesota. It has won 90% of those meetings, which dates back to 2007. It's certainly safe to say that the Nuggets have the Timberwolves' number.
The Nuggets are 42-20 ATS in their last 62 road games. The Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Nuggets are 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Minnesota. The road team is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Bet Denver Wednesday.
|11-21-12||Washington Wizards +10 v. Atlanta Hawks||100-101||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +10
The betting public does not want to back a team that is 0-9 on the season. The Washington Wizards are the last team in the league without a win, and as a result they are undervalued right now. I'll gladly take the points tonight against the Atlanta Hawks.
There's no question that these Wizards' players want to get their first taste of victory. As a result, they will fight, scratch and claw until they get it. This is a big letdown spot for the Hawks as they will have a hard time getting motivated to face a winless team, which will make it very tough to cover this double-digit spread.
Washington hasn't been nearly as bad as its record would indicate. Eight of its nine losses have come by 10 points or less, so it simply hasn't been able to execute down the stretch of games. Atlanta has only won one game all season by more than 9 points en route to its 5-4 start.
This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (WASHINGTON) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread.
Atlanta is 1-11 ATS in home games in November games over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are 7-23 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 home games. The Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. Take the Wizards Wednesday.
|11-20-12||Indiana v. Georgetown +9.5||82-72||Loss||-106||11 h 51 m||Show|
15* Indiana/Georgetown CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Georgetown +9.5
The Georgetown Hoyas showed what they were capable of yesterday by topping No. 11 UCLA 78-70 as a 6.5-point underdog. Its balance was on display as four players scored at least 11 points in this one, led by 23 points from Markel Starks. The Hoyas shot 54.5% as a team to improve to 3-0 on the season.
Indiana is the No. 1 team in the country right now, and with that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that it simply cannot live up to. That was evident yesterday in a 66-53 win over Georgia as a 21-point favorite. This will be by far the Hoosiers' toughest test of the year, and I cannot see them winning by double-digits.
The Hoyas are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 non-conference games. Georgetown is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games. Indiana is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games. The Hoosiers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss. Roll with Georgetown Tuesday.
|11-20-12||New York Knicks v. New Orleans Hornets +7||Top||102-80||Loss||-110||9 h 5 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Hornets +7
The New Orleans Hornets are showing great value as a big home underdog to the New York Knicks tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and side with the value. I realize that this line is +6 in most places, and I would still recommend a bet at that number as I believe the Hornets have an excellent chance to win this game outright.
New York is way overvalued due to its 7-1 start. Sure, this team is improved, but it should not be laying this big of a number on the road against almost any team in the league. This will be the Knicks' 4th game in 6 days.
The Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the league in the early going. They made some great improvements this offseason in bringing in Ryan Anderson (16.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and Anthony Davis (16.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.2 BPG).
While they are just 3-5 on the season, three of those losses came by 4 points or less. New Orleans comes in the more rested, more hungry team tonight. It has lost three straight and it comes in on two days' rest.
This play falls into a system that is 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in non-conference games.
The Hornets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Hornets are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games. These three trends combine for a 24-2 (92%) system backing New Orleans. Bet the Hornets Tuesday.
|11-20-12||Akron +19.5 v. Toledo||23-35||Win||100||8 h 0 m||Show|
15* Akron/Toledo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Akron +19.5
The Toledo Rockets likely won't even show up tonight. They were eliminated from the MAC title race with a 24-31 loss at Northern Illinois last Wednesday. With nothing to play for tonight, they won't bring the kind of effort it's going to take to cover this huge number against Akron.
The Zips want to end their season on a positive note since they will not be going to a bowl game. They have played some very good teams tough this season. They lost at Tennessee 26-47 as a 32-point underdog. They also lost at Ohio 28-34 as an 18-point dog, and at Kent State 24-35 as an 18.5-point dog.
Under first-year head coach Terry Bowden, the Zips have implemented a high-octane passing attack. They rank 14th in the country in passing offense (317.1 yards/game) and should be able to move the ball at will through the air against a Toledo defense that ranks 116th against the pass (298.8 yards/game).
Akron comes in the more rested team as it last played on November 10th against UMass. Toledo comes in on just five days' rest after playing on Wednesday, November 14th against Northern Illinois. That extra rest and preparation should make a big difference in this one.
Toledo is 13-27 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992. The Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. Take Akron Tuesday.
|11-19-12||New Mexico -2 v. Connecticut||66-60||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
15* New Mexico/UConn CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico -2
The UConn Huskies are way overvalued early in the season due to their 4-0 start. Three of those wins have come by 6 points or less and this team is not as good as its record would indicate. The Huskies only brought back one starter this season.
I believe New Mexico is every bit as good as its 3-0 record with three wins against quality teams in Davidson, Illinois-Chicago and George Mason. The Lobos returned three starters from last season, including Tony Snell (19.7 PPG) and Kendall Williams (18.0 PPG), who are their two leading scorers.
The biggest reason I'm fading the Huskies tonight is the fact that they played in a double-overtime game yesterday against Quinnipiac, winning by a final of 89-83. There's no question that UConn will be the more tired team, especially because they're not very deep with such little experience returning.
The Lobos are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games overall. New Mexico is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following a S.U. win. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Bet New Mexico Monday.
|11-19-12||Chicago Bears v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 36.5||Top||7-32||Loss||-110||14 h 53 m||Show|
20* Bears/49ers ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 36.5
The San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears feature two of the best defenses in the league. They will play part in a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight in San Francisco on ESPN's Monday Night Football.
The 49ers rank No. 1 in the league in scoring defense at 14.1 points/game. They are also No. 2 in total defense at 292.1 yards/game.
The Bears rank No. 2 in the league in scoring defense at 14.8 points/game, just behind the 49ers. They are also No. 5 in total defense at 306.7 yards/game.
Chicago ranks just No. 26 in total offense at 316.0 yards/game. They were already going to have trouble moving the ball and scoring points on the 49ers even if Jay Cutler was healthy. Now, with Cutler out and Jason Campbell in, the Bears' offense will be lucky to reach double-digits in points.
The 49ers had been doing pretty well offensively at No. 12 in the league at 365.7 yards/game. That all changes tonight as they will also be without their starting quarterback, Alex Smith. With Colin Kaepernick under center, they will be much more conservative and looking to run the football even more.
The 49ers are 16-4 to the UNDER against teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers/game on the season since 1992. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in 49ers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 19-8 in Bears last 27 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
PS - I put this total in before the news that Alex Smith would be out. Obviously, I like the UNDER even more with him out, and I like it down to 34.
|11-19-12||Denver Nuggets +7 v. Memphis Grizzlies||97-92||Win||100||8 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +7
The Memphis Grizzlies are way overvalued right now due to their 8-game winning streak. Sure, this is one of the better teams in the Western Conference, but they are not 7 points better than the Nuggets tonight.
Denver comes in undervalued due to a 4-6 start which includes a three-game losing streak. It will be highly motivated to put an end to this skid tonight. It will also want to put an end to a three-game losing streak in this series with the Grizzlies with three straight losses by 3 points or less.
The Nuggets also come in the fresher team as this will only be their 3rd game in 7 days. The Grizzlies will be a bit fatigued playing their 4th game in 6 days. They won't be able to match the energy level of the Nuggets, who like to push the ball up the court and fast break more than any other team in the league.
The Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Denver is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a S.U. loss. The Nuggets are 41-20 ATS in their last 61 road games. The Grizzlies are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take the Nuggets Monday.
|11-19-12||Milwaukee Bucks v. Charlotte Bobcats +5.5||98-102||Win||100||7 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +5.5
The Charlotte Bobcats are showing solid value as a 5.5-point home underdog to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. There's no question that this Bobcats team is improved from a year ago, but they aren't getting treated like it from oddsmakers.
Charlotte has opened 4-4 this season and it is way undervalued right now. It has won three of its last four with its only loss to the Grizzlies, who are currently on an 8-game winning streak. This is basically a completely new team and one that will be a lot more competitive all season.
The Bobcats made some great improvements to their roster this offseason with the additions of Ramon Sessions (15.8 PPG, 4.2 APG), Ben Gordon (13.8 PPG, 42.3% 3-pointers), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (11.2 PPG, 1.6 BPG, 7.0 RPG) and Brendan Haywood (7.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG).
Milwaukee is overvalued right now due to its 6-2 start. Only one of those six wins has come against a team with a winning record, and that was the mediocre Boston Celtics (6-5). There's no question that the Bucks are improved this season as well, but they should not be this heavily favored on the road against the Bobcats tonight.
Milwaukee is 45-72 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Bucks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. The Bobcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Milwaukee is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Bobcats Monday.
|11-18-12||Chicago Bulls v. Portland Trail Blazers +1||94-102||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers +1
The Portland Trail Blazers should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back, so they'll be tired heading into this one.
This play falls into a system that is 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (PORTLAND) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in non-conference games. Bet the Blazers Sunday.
|11-18-12||Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers +4||13-10||Win||100||49 h 11 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +4
The Steelers have been a resilient team with injuries all season. They have been without arguably their two best defensive players in Troy Polamalu and James Harrison for more than half the season, yet they
|11-18-12||Richmond +10.5 v. Minnesota||57-72||Loss||-105||6 h 28 m||Show|
15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond +10.5
The Richmond Spiders are showing solid value as a double-digit underdog today to the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Richmond is off to a 3-0 start with three wins by double-digits. This team is for real.
This play falls into a system that is 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=39% on the season, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 28% or less.
Minnesota is 6-16 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Spiders are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games. Richmond is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 non-conference games. Bet Richmond Sunday.
|11-18-12||Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Atlanta Falcons||Top||19-23||Win||100||92 h 59 m||Show|
20* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +10
The Cardinals are coming off their bye week, which couldn
|11-18-12||Jacksonville Jaguars +15.5 v. Houston Texans||37-43||Win||100||42 h 41 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +15.5
Double-digit underdogs in the NFL have been incredible against the spread over the last several years. Oddsmakers have to set these spreads extra high to get even action on both sides in games featuring one team with one of the worst records in the NFL, and one with the best.
That provides "sharp bettors" such as myself a chance to back the undervalued underdog at a number that is better than it should be. Houston is not more than two touchdowns better than Jacksonville in this one, and I fully expect the Jaguars to take this one right down to the wire because of several different factors.
First, the Jaguars have played their best football on the road. That makes sense because they cannot be too excited to play at home when there are so many empty seats in the stands. Jacksonville is 1-3 SU but 3-0-1 ATS in road games this season. It won at Indianapolis 22-17, and it's three losses have come against the Vikings (23-26), Raiders (23-26) and Packers (15-24). As you can see, it stay within 9 points in all three of its road losses.
Houston finds itself in a letdown spot after a big win at Chicago on NBC's Sunday Night Football last week. It will have a hard time getting motivated to face a Jacksonville team that it already beat 27-7 on the road in the first meeting. The Texans will come into this game feeling like they just have to show up to win. Meanwhile, the Jaguars will be looking at this game like it's their Super Bowl.
This play falls into a system that is 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13.
The Texan are 1-9 ATS vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The Jaguars are 15-5 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992. Jacksonville is 12-3 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992. Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.
|11-17-12||Chicago Bulls +6.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||80-101||Loss||-110||11 h 7 m||Show|
15* Bulls/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +6.5
The Los Angeles Clippers have played very well against the top teams in the league this season. However, they have been prone to the letdown with home losses to the Warriors and Clippers as well.
I believe the Clippers are overvalued here tonight after their home win over the Miami Heat on Wednesday. In fact, they have won four straight games heading in. That means the betting public is going to be all over them, and oddsmakers know this. They are in a letdown spot here after that Heat win.
Chicago is a team that rarely gets blown out and is in every game. All three of its losses have come by 7 points or less this season. The Bulls are 2-0 on the road this year and will be looking forward to this contest at Los Angeles Saturday.
The Bulls are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Clippers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Central opponents. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. The road team has won four straight and eight of the last 10 in this series. Bet the Bulls Saturday.
|11-17-12||Davidson v. Wisconsin-Milwaukee +7.5||68-73||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +7.5
Wisconsin-Milwaukee has returned three starters from last season, including F James Haarsma (10.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG). The good news about that is three new starters in Jordan Aaron (20.0 PPG), Lyle Kelm (10.0 PPG) and Thierno Niang (10.0 PPG) are leading the team in scoring through two games.
The Panthers have opened 1-1 with their only loss coming at South Carolina by a final of 75-82. I'd say that's a pretty good loss as they hung with a BCS school. Davidson also has an 81-86 loss at New Mexico, and I simply believe that this team is way overvalued as a big road favorite Saturday.
The Wildcats are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 road games. Davidson is 5-14 ATS as a road favorite or pick over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS n road games after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are in home games after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Wisconsin-Milwaukee Saturday.
|11-17-12||Utah State -3 v. Louisiana Tech||Top||48-41||Win||100||65 h 23 m||Show|
25* WAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State -3
The Utah State Aggies are one of the best teams in the country that not too many people know about. As a result, they continue going under the radar and killing the books at the pay window for people who are willing to back them. I am one of those people, and I will do so again Saturday.
Utah State is 8-2 this season with its only losses coming on the road at Wisconsin and BYU by a combined 5 points. It missed a last second-field goal at Wisconsin, and it lost by only a field goal at BYU. This team has won by 7 points or more in all eight of its victories, including six wins by 22 points or more.
Louisiana Tech is obviously a quality team at 9-1, but it has played a much softer schedule than Utah State. Its lone loss came to Texas A&M at home, and its nine wins have come against Houston (4-6), Rice (4-6), Illinois (2-8), Virginia (4-7), UNLV (2-9), Idaho (1-9), New Mexico State (1-9), UTSA (6-4) and Texas State (3-6).
As you can see, only one of their nine wins have come against a team with a winning record, and those teams have combined for a 27-66 record. I would have to say that the Bulldogs are nowhere near as good as their record, and that will show on the field Saturday.
Utah State is a complete team. It ranks 25th in the country in total offense (463.2 yards/game), including 40th in rushing (187.1 yards/game) and 33rd in passing (275.9 yards/game). It ranks 12th in total defense (303.3 yards/game), including 5th against the run (94.6 yards/game) and 37th against the pass (208.7 yards/game).
Unlike the Aggies, the Bulldogs have some weaknesses, especially on the defensive side of the ball, which will be the difference in this game. Louisiana Tech ranks 121st in total defense (505.7 yards/game), including 117th against the pass (337.8 yards/game). Utah State will get more stops than Louisiana Tech in this one.
Utah State is 9-0 ATS in all games this season. Once again, it is not getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers as only a 3-point favorite against a much inferior Louisiana Tech team. Bet Utah State Saturday.
|11-17-12||North Carolina State +17 v. Clemson||48-62||Win||100||65 h 52 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on NC State +17
First and foremost, the NC State Wolfpack have the talent to stay with Clemson Saturday aside from any outside motivational factors. They proved that last season while knocking Clemson out of the Top 10 with a 37-13 victory over the Tigers.
Aside from the fact that NC State has the talent to hang with Clemson, a big reason I'm taking the Wolfpack is because this is a huge letdown spot for the Tigers. Florida State, a 31-point favorite over Maryland Saturday, would win the ACC Atlantic division with a win. A loss would send Clemson to the ACC title game if the Tigers beat the Wolfpack.
That FSU/Maryland game kicks off at 12:00 EST, and it's basically a foregone conclusion that the Seminoles are going to win against a Terrapins team playing with their 5th string QB. The Clemson/NC State game kicks off at 3:30 EST, and these Tigers players will surely get wind of the fact that FSU beat Maryland before kickoff.
With the realization that they won't be playing in the ACC Championship Game, the Tigers will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand with little to play for. Remember, this is an NC State team that handed Florida State its only loss of the season, so it has proven it can win big games.
Mike Glennon threw for 253 yards and three touchdowns against Clemson in last season's 37-13 win. Glennon is having another solid season, completing 57.3 percent of his passes for 2,910 yards with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He will be able to keep the Wolfpack in this game with his ability to move the ball through the air.
NC State is 6-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 16.0 points/game. The Wolfpack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Clemson. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet NC State Saturday.
|11-17-12||Wake Forest +24 v. Notre Dame||0-38||Loss||-110||65 h 52 m||Show|
15* Wake Forest/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on Wake Forest +24
While the Fighting Irish are 10-0 this season, they haven
|11-17-12||USC -3 v. UCLA||28-38||Loss||-115||64 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on USC -3
The Trojans are the most talented three-loss team in the entire country. They gave Oregon by far their toughest game so far with a 62-51 home loss to the Ducks. Their other two losses came to Stanford and Arizona on the road by a combined 10 points.
|11-17-12||Kent State v. Bowling Green -2.5||31-24||Loss||-107||61 h 23 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -2.5
The Bowling Green Falcons and Kent State Golden Flashes have both had amazing seasons to this point with little expected out of them coming into the year. It's unfortunate that somebody has to lose this game, but at the same time it's amazing that the winner will have the inside track to the MAC East division title, which means a trip to the MAC Championship.
While I have a bunch of respect for both teams, I have no question that the right play is to back Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown. Kent State is at least getting some love from oddsmakers because of their win over Rutgers earlier this season, but Bowling Green continues to get no respect.
Remember, the Falcons are the team that took Florida right down to the wire in their opener. This was a 17-14 game heading into the 4th quarter before the Gators scored 10 unanswered points int he final period to win 27-14. Their other two losses came on the road against very good Virginia Tech and Toledo teams.
Bowling Green is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents 32.5 to 9.0, or by an average of 23.5 points/game. The biggest reason the Falcons are going to win this game is because of their defense, which ranks 6th in the country allowing just 285.4 yards/game.
More specifically, the Falcons have a huge edge in the ground game, which is where this contest will be won. Bowling Green ranks 14th in the country against the run (103.7 yards/game, 3.3/carry), so it will be able to limit a Kent State rushing attack that ranks 15th at 235.7 yards/game.
Kent State does not move the ball through the air very well, ranking just 111th in passing offense (166.7 yards/game). So, when Bowling Green shuts down their running game, the Golden Flashes will have nowhere to turn. Also, Kent State ranks just 77th in total defense (414.2 yards/game).
The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Bowling Green is 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Take Bowling Green Saturday.
|11-16-12||Phoenix Suns +9 v. Los Angeles Lakers||102-114||Loss||-110||20 h 15 m||Show|
15* Suns/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +9
The Phoenix Suns are showing great value as a 9-point underdog to the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. The hype surrounding the Lakers and head coach Mike D'Antoni has them way overvalued right now.
Remember, this is just a 3-5 Lakers team that is trying to find its way. It's going to take a few weeks for these players to catch on to D'Antoni's system. The Lakers' three wins have come at home against teams that are a combined 7-18.
Phoenix has won three of its last five contests coming in. Its only losses came at Utah and at home in overtime to the Chicago Bulls. This team is better than it gets credit for, and unlike the Lakers, the Suns are undervalued at this point of the season.
The Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Lakers are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Los Angeles is 8-17-1 ATS in its last 26 home games. The Lakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take the Suns Friday.
|11-16-12||Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -1.5||117-119||Win||100||20 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -1.5
The Portland Trail Blazers should be a much heavier home favorite tonight against the Houston Rockets. Portland is hungry to put an end to three-game home losing streak, and I expect them to do so against a Houston team that it beat on the road 95-85 on November 3rd.
Houston is overvalued due to James Harden. The former OKC Thunder guard has been putting up big numbers in Houston, but he doesn't make this an elite team. However, bettors like to back star players like Harden, which is why the Rockets are overvalued. Their four wins have come against the Pistons twice, Hawks and Hornets.
Portland is undervalued this season because it doesn't have any star players. LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum are two of the most underrated players in the entire league. Point guard Damian Lillard is well on his way to earning Rookie of the Year honors, too.
The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest opponents. Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Rockets are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. Western Conference foes. These three trends combine for a 21-1 (95%) system backing Portland. Roll with the Blazers Friday.
|11-16-12||Notre Dame -3 v. St. Joseph's||70-79||Loss||-110||19 h 17 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -3
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish should be a much bigger favorite tonight against the St. Joseph's Hawks. Both teams return five starters, but there's no question that the No. 21 Fighting Irish are the more talented team, and that will show on the court tonight.
Remember, this is a Notre Dame team that went 13-5 in Big East play last season to finish 3rd in the conference. Jack Cooley (12.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) is one of the Big East's premier bigs, coming off an uber-efficient campaign in which he made 62.5% of his field goals and swatted 1.6 shots per game.
But the backcourt figures to be just as dangerous led by Jerian Grant (12.3 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Eric Atkins (12.1 PPG, 4.1 APG). Both are strong passers and shooters, who should have no problem making this offense flow alongside 6-foot-8 swingman Scott Martin (9.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG). He is a matchup nightmare with a guard's skillset and a forward's body.
The Fighting Irish are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games vs. Atlantic 10 opponents. The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Notre Dame Friday.
|11-16-12||Florida International v. Florida Atlantic -1.5||Top||34-24||Loss||-110||47 h 55 m||Show|
20* FIU/FAU Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic -1.5
The Florida Atlantic Owls have gone under the radar all season. They have been an absolute money-making machine at the pay window because of it, covering eight straight against the spread. As only a 1-point home favorite here, they could easily earn their ninth straight cover.
|11-16-12||Wake Forest +10.5 v. Connecticut||71-77||Win||100||16 h 51 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +10.5
Connecticut is way overvalued heading into this neutral court contest with Wake Forest tonight due to its 2-0 start that includes wins over Michigan State and Vermont. Now is a great time to fade this team considering they are getting some hype.
The Huskies are not going to be as strong this season as they have been in year's past, plain and simple. Former head coach Jim Calhoun retired, and he did not leave new head coach Kevin Ollie with much talent. The Huskies return just one starter, lose Jeremy Lamb and Andre Drummond to the NBA, and Alex Oriakhi has transferred.
Wake Forest went just 4-12 in ACC play last year, and it heads into the 2012-13 campaign undervalued because of it. The Demon Deacons should be much improved because they return their top two scorers from last season in C.J. Harris (16.7 PPG) and Travis McKie (16.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG). Six different players scored in double figures in a 79-67 win over Radford in their opener, so this team has some nice balance to go along with studs Harris and McKie.
UConn is 25-47 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997. It is only winning in this spot by an average of 3.1 points/game. Look for this one to go right down to the wire with a possible upset by the Demon Deacons. Bet Wake Forest Friday.
|11-15-12||Miami Heat v. Denver Nuggets -3||98-93||Loss||-100||11 h 15 m||Show|
15* Heat/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -3
The Denver Nuggets should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Miami Heat. This is an extremely tough spot for Miami and a great one for Denver, and that's the reason the Nuggets bring home the cash in this one.
Miami will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. This is one of the hardest situations for any team in the league, and they only come across it a couple times a year. The Heat showed signs of wearing down last night in a 100-107 loss at Los Angeles.
Denver is one of the most up-tempo teams in the league, which will make life even harder on the Heat in this one. The Nuggets push the ball up the floor faster than any other team in the NBA. Miami is going to wear down in the second half as I expect the Nuggets to pull away in the 3rd and 4th quarters. The Nuggets come in on two days' rest, and this is just their 2nd game in 5 days.
The home team has won six straight meetings in this series. Denver is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Denver is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with the Nuggets Thursday.
|11-15-12||Miami Dolphins v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 46||Top||14-19||Win||100||24 h 35 m||Show|
20* Dolphins/Bills AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 46
Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this Thursday night game between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. These are two desperate teams in need of a victory to get back in the playoff hunt in the AFC, and I look for it to be a defensive battle partly because of it.
Another reason I believe this will be a low-scoring affair is that fact that these are two of the worst offenses in the league. Miami is scoring just 19.2 points/game while ranking 25th in total offense (323.9 yards/game).
Buffalo's offensive numbers are a bit inflated because of two games against the Patriots, who it always seems to play in high-scoring games with. It scored 28 points and gained 438 total yards in the 1st meeting, and it scored 31 points while gaining 481 total yards in the second. The Bills still rank just 14th in total offense (359.1 yards/game) despite those two explosions against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
These teams have combined for 45 or less points in four of the last five meetings, which would make for an 80% system pertaining to tonight's total set of 46. Dating back further, nine of the last 12 meetings have seen 45 or fewer points.
Miami is 7-0 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Dolphins are 6-0 to the UNDER in November games over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 10-1 to the UNDER off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 games overall. These four trends combine for a 28-1 (97%) system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-15-12||North Carolina v. Virginia +3.5||37-13||Loss||-110||23 h 40 m||Show|
15* UNC/Virginia ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +3.5
While the Cavaliers are just 4-6 on the season, there
|11-14-12||Atlanta Hawks v. Golden State Warriors -1||88-92||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
15* Hawks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -1
The Golden State Warriors are hungry for a victory after dropping back-to-back games to the Lakers and Nuggets. I like their chances tonight with a step down in competition as the Atlanta Hawks visit Oracle Arena.
The Warriors have had some time to steam over those losses as they haven't played a game since Saturday, November 10th. They have had three full days to prepare for Atlanta, and they will be well-rested and ready to go coming in. Those are two huge advantages for Golden State tonight.
Atlanta will be playing its 3rd game in 4 nights as it continues its grueling 4-game road trip to the West Coast. The Hawks won't be able to give as much effort on the court tonight as the Warriors because of it.
The Warriors are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Golden State is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 games following two or more consecutive losses. It simply wants this one more tonight folks. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.
|11-14-12||Toledo +11 v. Northern Illinois||Top||24-31||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
25* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Toledo +11
The Toledo Rockets represent my strongest MAC release for the entire 2012 college football season. They should not be catching double-digits tonight against the Northern Illinois Huskies.
Toledo is undervalued due to its 27-34 loss to Ball State last week. There's no question it was looking ahead to this game against Northern Illinois. That's because this game is a winner-take-all in the MAC West. The winner will have the inside track to the MAC title game.
The Rockets had their shot last year, but they fell 63-60 on November 1st to Northern Illinois. That loss cost them the MAC West title, and there's no doubt this team wants revenge. Toledo will be the more motivated team coming in.
Northern Illinois is way overvalued due to playing an extremely easy schedule this season en route to a 9-1 start. The Rockets have played a much tougher schedule and have managed to get through at 8-2. Both of their losses came by exactly 7 points to a pair of very solid Arizona and Ball State teams.
This play falls into a system that is 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (N ILLINOIS) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%). Bet Toledo Wednesday.
|11-14-12||Ohio +7 v. Ball State||27-52||Loss||-115||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* Ohio/Ball State ESPNU Wednesday No-Brainer on Ohio +7
The Bobcats are still mathematically alive for the MAC East title considering they still get to play Kent State in the final game of the season. They would need some help for that game to even matter, but at this point they are still alive.
Despite two losses in their last three games, this is still an 8-win team that returned 14 starters from a team that won the MAC East title last year, including QB Tyler Tettleton. He may be the best signal caller in the MAC. Tettleton is completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 2,045 yards with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 198 yards and four scores.
Ohio is 3-1 on the road this season with its only loss coming at Miami (Ohio) by 3 points. I know the Bobcats lost to Bowling Green at home last week, but their defense played well enough to win that game, limiting the Falcons to just 288 total yards. Ball State hasn
|11-14-12||Detroit Pistons +7.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers||94-76||Win||100||7 h 18 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +7.5
The Detroit Pistons (0-8) are going to fight, scratch and claw to try and get their first win of the season. There's no question they are undervalued due to this winless start, and I'll pull the trigger on them tonight as a big road underdog to the Philadelphia 76ers.
Detroit has played six of its first eight games on the road, so it has faced a very difficult schedule. It proved it could play with one of the best teams in the league last time out. The Pistons lost 92-90 to Oklahoma City Monday after blowing a 13-point lead in the third quarter.
"The thing I liked is our guys, when you went in that locker room, very, very disappointed," coach Lawrence Frank told the team's official website. "Laid it all out there, felt like we could have won the game - should have won the game - and you hate where you kick a game. Just to see how much that loss hurt ... it should, and then we had a really good day of practice and you move forward."
The 76ers are just 1-2 at home this season. They are getting outscored 89.3 to 96.7 at home this year with losses to the Knicks and Bucks. Philadelphia will have a hard time getting motivated to play a winless team tonight, which will be the case for many of Detroit's opponents until they get that first "W".
This play falls into a system that is 57-26 (68.7%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 8 or more consecutive losses. Roll with the Pistons Wednesday.
|11-14-12||Wisconsin v. Florida -6||56-74||Win||100||7 h 11 m||Show|
15* Wisconsin/Florida ESPN 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Florida -6
The Florida Gators are one of the most talented teams in the country this season. They are ranked inside the Top 10 for good reason, and that will show on the floor tonight as they crush the Wisconsin Badgers at home.
The Gators return three starters from a team that made it to the Elite Eight last year. They are leading scorer Kenny Boynton (15.9 PPG, 3.0 3-pointers), Erik Murphy (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and Patric Young (10.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG).
Florida led 47-9 at halftime in its opener and cruised to an 84-35 victory over Alabama State. Boynton finished with 22 points, five assists and six rebounds. Murphy hit three 3's and scored 15 points, while Young added 12 points and 12 rebounds with two blocks.
Wisconsin has lost starting point guard Josh Gasser to a season-ending knee injury. That's huge because it already had to replace leading scorer Jordan Taylor (14.8 PPG) from last season. Teams that struggle at the point guard position don't usually fare well. Take Florida Wednesday.
|11-13-12||Kentucky v. Duke -3||68-75||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
15* Kentucky/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -3
The Kentucky Wildcats are way over-hyped coming into the season. They won the National Championship last year, and now they have a TV show about them on ESPN heading into the 2012-13 campaign. They can't live up to the hype, and that will be reflected against the point spreads early in the season.
Kentucky loses all five starters from last season. Sure, John Calipari is an excellent recruiter, but you just don't replace the five guys they lost. They will have to replace 92 percent of last year's offense with another freshman class.
"I like our talent. I like our size. I like our length. We have some guys with pretty good speed," Calipari said. "We're just not a good basketball team right now. Too many young guys that we're trying to bring along."
Duke returns four starters from a team that averaged 77.3 points/game last season. The key to this season's team will be senior forward Mason Plumlee, who chose not to enter the NBA Draft after a season in which he averaged nearly a double-double (11.1 PPG, 9.2 RPG). He is joined in the frontcourt by senior Ryan Kelly, who can stretch defenses as a long-range shooter (41% threes).
The backcourt is led by senior Seth Curry, but with Austin Rivers gone, he has returned to his more natural position off the ball, where he thrives with a better than 40% three-point stroke in his Duke career.
Kentucky barely squeaked by Maryland 72-69 in its opener, and it is an underdog for a good reason here. The Wildcats are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games. Kentucky is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. ACC foes. Take Duke Tuesday.
|11-13-12||New York Knicks v. Orlando Magic +7||Top||99-89||Loss||-110||7 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Orlando Magic +7
The Orlando Magic should not be catching 7 points at home Tuesday. This is a team that came into the season undervalued due to the Dwight Howard trade, and that hasn't changed through the first few weeks of the 2012-13 campaign.
The New York Knicks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-0 start. This will only be their second road game of the season, and they shouldn't be favored by 7 points away from home against almost any team in this league.
Orlando has gone a very profitable 4-2 ATS in its six games this year. Off four straight losses, the Magic will be the more motivated team heading into this one. Three of those four losses have come on the road, and there's no question that this skid has them undervalued right now.
This play falls into a system that is 38-11 (77.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games.
The Magic are 19-6 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game since 1996. They are winning in this spot by an average of 4.7 points/game. Orlando is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the Magic Tuesday.
|11-12-12||West Virginia +11 v. Gonzaga||50-84||Loss||-107||12 h 15 m||Show|
15* WVU/Gonzaga ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on West Virginia +11
The West Virginia Mountaineers are a much stronger team than they are getting credit for heading into the 2012-13 campaign, which will be their first season in the Big 12. They should not be a double-digit underdog tonight to the overrated Gonzaga Bulldogs.
The Mountaineers return three starters from a team that went 9-9 in the Big East last season and made the NCAA Tournament. Sophomore Gary Browne (6.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.0 APG) should be prepared to take a big step up in the backcourt. PF Deniz Kilici (10.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG) is their best returning player.
After sitting out a year, Dayton transfer Juwan Staten will be a big factor at guard. Kilici will be joined in the frontcourt by La Salle transfer Aaric Murray, who at 6-foot-10 is a shot-blocking force (143 blocks over two college season) who can also step out and hit jumpers, averaging 13.7 PPG and making 36% of his threes at La Salle.
West Virginia wants payback from a 77-54 loss to Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament. There's no question that the Mountaineers have been thinking about this game all offseason for a chance at revenge. They'll definitely want this one more tonight. Take West Virginia Monday.
|11-12-12||Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers||Top||13-16||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Steelers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas City +13.5
If the Chiefs would just take care of the football, they would be a really good team. At some point, they will quit giving the ball away, thus giving games away. This is certainly better than a 1-7 team when you look at the numbers outside of turnovers.
Kansas City ranks 16th in the league in total offense at 358.0 yards per game, and 16th in total defense at 347.5 yards per game allowed. As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by 10.5 yards per game. That is a number more indicative of a team that is 4-4 or better rather than one that is 1-7.
Pittsburgh has tended to play down to its competition at times this season. Remember, this is a team that has losses to the Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans, which is about as bad as it gets. The Steelers were a 10.5-point favorite last season against the Chiefs and only won by a final of 13-9.
The Steelers are expected to be without arguably their top playmakers offensively in wide receiver Antonio Brown (ankle). He is listed as doubtful, which will certainly take the Steelers
|11-12-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Detroit Pistons +6.5||92-90||Win||100||8 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +6.5
The Detroit Pistons are very motivated to get their first win of the season. Because this team has opened 0-7, there's no question they are undervalued right now. The betting public does not want to back them, and that's why they are showing such great value as a 6.5-point underdog here Monday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be disinterested heading into this one. They are going to have a hard time getting up to play a winless Pistons team. That's especially the case considering the Thunder just beat them at home 105-94 this past Friday.
The Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. So not only will they be disinterested, but they won't have the energy level it's going to take to win this game by 7-plus points, let alone win it at all.
A big reason why the Pistons have opened 0-7 is due to a brutal schedule that has featured six straight road games. This will be just their second home game of the season, and there's no question these players are looking forward to getting back in front of their home fans. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Pistons Monday.
|11-11-12||Houston Texans +1.5 v. Chicago Bears||Top||13-6||Win||100||67 h 26 m||Show|
20* Texans/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +1.5
The Houston Texans are the superior team in this game against Chicago and it will show on the field Sunday Night. The Texans were my pick to win the Super Bowl this year, and they have not disappointed. I did expect the Bears to make the playoffs, but not to be off to this good of a start.
Chicago's 7-1 start is a bit fluky given all of the defensive touchdowns they have come up with. They can't possibly keep this pace up on defense, and they have been forcing turnovers against a pretty soft schedule in the first half. Six of the eight teams the Bears have faced are .500 or worse on the season, and five of those teams have losing records.
Houston won't be giving the Bears any gifts like these other teams have. It has only turned the ball over six times all season. This is the most complete team in the league as it ranks in the Top 10 of turnover differential, yards per play differential, and sack percentage. There are just no weaknesses on their entire team.
Chicago's biggest weakness is an offense that isn't nearly explosive as it was supposed to be coming into the season. It ranks just 25th in total offense (324.4 yards/game), including 27th in passing offense (196.8 yards/game). Houston ranks 12th in total offense (371.7 yards/game) and 3rd in total defense (286.1 yards/game).
The Texans are a perfect 9-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. They are winning by 15.4 points/game in this spot. The Texans are 7-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. They are winning by 12.2 points/game in this situation.
Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 November games. The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Houston is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing the Texans. Bet Houston Sunday.
|11-11-12||Miami Heat -2 v. Memphis Grizzlies||86-104||Loss||-105||8 h 5 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2
The Miami Heat are showing great value as only a 2-point favorite at Memphis. The Grizzlies are way overvalued due to their 4-1 start against one of the easiest schedules you will ever see. They meet their match tonight in the defending NBA champs.
Lebron James and Dwayne Wade both are banged up a bit coming into this one, which is probably the biggest reason why the Heat are a small favorite here. But the oddsmakers are putting too much stock into it. "It's a little sore right now," James said after his last game. "I knew I would get through it. It would take a lot for me not to go back out there with my teammates."
The Heat are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games. Take the Heat Sunday.
|11-11-12||NY Jets +6.5 v. Seattle Seahawks||7-28||Loss||-110||63 h 0 m||Show|
15* Jets/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New York +6.5
The Jets are coming off their bye week and it could not have come at a better them. Their bye will give them a chance to recover and refocus from two straight AFC East losses to the Patriots and Dolphins. This extra week of rest will make the flight from the East coast to the West a lot easier, and is shouldn
|11-11-12||Detroit Lions -1 v. Minnesota Vikings||24-34||Loss||-120||60 h 56 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Lions -1
The Detroit Lions are rolling right now, playing their best football of the season coming into this one. They have won back-to-back games over the Seahawks and Jaguars while scoring a combined 59 points in the process. Now, Detroit wants revenge from a 13-20 loss to Minnesota earlier this season.
That loss was a complete fluke as the Lions dominated the game, but the special teams lost it for them. They outgained the Vikings 341-227 for the game, but gave up two special teams touchdowns. One came on a 100-yard kickoff return by Percy Harvin, who is doubtful to play with an ankle injury. He is the Vikings best weapon and will certainly be missed.
I've been saying all year that Detroit is a better team than its record indicates, and it's certainly starting to show. The Lions rank 2nd in the league in total offense (410.9 yards/game) and 7th in total defense (320.6 yards/game), outgaining opponents by 90.3 yards/game this season. Minnesota is actually getting outgained on the season despite its 5-4 record.
The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, while the Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Detroit is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a ATS win. The Lions are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. I'll back the better team playing the better football right now against a Minnesota team likely playing without arguably its best player. Take the Lions Sunday.
|11-11-12||San Diego Chargers +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers||24-34||Loss||-100||60 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Chargers +3
The San Diego Chargers should not be catching points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday. Tampa Bay is getting way too much credit for its back-to-back wins over the Vikings and Raiders. That win over Minnesota was its only win against a team with a winning record this season, and I would be willing to lay a large bet that the Vikings don't finish with a winning record.
San Diego comes in on three extra days' rest after playing last Thursday in a 31-13 home win over the Kansas City Chiefs. San Diego is a better team than its 4-4 record would indicate, and its defense will be the reason it goes into Tampa Bay and comes away with a victory Sunday.
The Chargers rank 9th in the league in total defense (322.4 yards/game), including 4th against the run (84.0 yards/game). Its ability to stop the run is huge considering the Bucs rely on Doug Martin and their rushing attack so much.
Tampa Bay's defense is the reason it will lose this game. The Bucs rank a woeful 28th in the league in total defense (398.4 yards/game), including dead last against the pass (321.1 yards/game). Philip Rivers is going to have a huge day against this soft Bucs' secondary.
The Buccaneers are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 home games. Tampa is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. San Diego is 15-5 ATS vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992. Roll with the Chargers Sunday.
|11-11-12||Atlanta Falcons v. New Orleans Saints +3||27-31||Win||100||60 h 55 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Saints NFC South No-Brainer on New Orleans +3
While the Saints are just 3-5 this season, there
|11-10-12||Utah v. Washington Huskies +1.5||15-34||Win||100||74 h 59 m||Show|
15* Utah/Washington Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +1.5
The Utah Utes have no business being a road favorite at Washington Saturday. Oddsmakers have really missed their mark on this one folks, and we'll take advantage. I fully expect the Huskies to become bowl eligible with a victory on Senior Night as this will be their final home game.
Utah is getting way too much respect for its last two wins over Washington State and California. Both of those victories came at home against two of the worst teams in the Pac-12. You can't forget that the Utes had lost four straight before those two wins over cupcake opponents.
Utah is 0-4 on the road this season, scoring just 12.0 points/game and allowing 26.5 points/game, getting outscored by a whopping 14.5 points/game. Once again, the Utes have no business being favored given how poorly they've played away from home.
What's even more mind-boggling is the fact that Washington is 4-1 at home this season, yet it's a dog here. The Huskies have impressive home wins over then-No. 8 Stanford and then-No. 7 Oregon State this year, so it's not like they're beating up on cupcakes. Their lone home loss came against then-No. 11 USC.
The Huskies won at Utah 31-14 last year as a 10-point underdog. They dominated this game, outgaining the Utes 411-322 while forcing five turnovers. Keith Price completed 22 of 30 passes for 226 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Get ready for another big game from Price this weekend.
Washington is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. It is outscoring teams by 13.2 points/game in this spot. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games. These three trends combine for a 15-0 system backing the Huskies. Bet Washington Saturday.
|11-10-12||Boston Celtics +1 v. Milwaukee Bucks||96-92||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Boston Celtics +1
The Boston Celtics are coming off a loss last night, while the Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a win. There's no question the Celtics are going to be the more motivated team heading into this contest Saturday.
Boston is 2-3 while the Bucks are 3-1, so the Celtics need this one more. They also want revenge from an 88-99 home loss to the Bucks in their second game of the season. There's a reason why the Bucks are only a 1-point favorite in this one, and that's because the oddsmakers realize the Celtics will want this game more.
Milwaukee is 1-9 ATS vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 11-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 1-9 ATS in home games off a road win over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Celtics Saturday.
|11-10-12||Mississippi State +14.5 v. LSU||Top||17-37||Loss||-105||71 h 32 m||Show|
25* SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +14.5
This is easily the best team that Dan Mullen has fielded since coming to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs did lose badly to Alabama and Texas A&M in their last two games, but that has them battle-tested heading into this showdown against a team similarly talented.
LSU is in a huge letdown spot after losing to No. 1 Alabama in the final seconds last Saturday. It will have a very hard time getting up to play Mississippi State after such a crushing defeat. That loss means that the Tigers aren
|11-10-12||Georgia -15.5 v. Auburn||38-0||Win||100||71 h 31 m||Show|
15* Georgia/Auburn ESPN 2 Line Mistake on Georgia -15.5
A win guarantees the Bulldogs a spot in the SEC title game for a second straight season. That would also mean that its national title hopes are still alive considering the winner of the SEC Championship game has made it to the BCS Championship in six straight seasons. They certainly won
|11-10-12||Penn State +7.5 v. Nebraska||23-32||Loss||-113||67 h 2 m||Show|
15* Penn State/Nebraska ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Penn State +7.5
The postseason ban hasn
|11-10-12||Navy v. Troy||31-41||Loss||-105||67 h 60 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Navy PK
Navy is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. It has won five straight games coming in with road victories over Air Force, Central Michigan and East Carolina, along with home wins over Indiana and Navy.
Its recent success is directly related to a change at the quarterback position. Freshman QB Keenan Reynolds replaced Trey Miller in the Air Force game and led the Midshipmen to a comeback victory in the second half. He hasn't missed a beat since.
Reynolds has rushed for 405 yards and six touchdowns. However, it's his throwing ability that has made this offense so much more explosive. Reynolds is completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 560 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. He forces opposing defenses to respect the pass, which makes this triple-option attack so much scarier.
Troy had a chance to pull off a huge upset at Tennessee last week. It blew the game down the stretch, allowing the Vols to score two touchdowns over the final three minutes to escape with a 55-48 victory. After such a crushing defeat, it will be hard for the Trojans to bounce back mentally and get ready for this powerful triple-option attack that's coming their way.
Navy crushed Try 42-14 at home in last season's meeting. It rushed for 390 yards while compiling 517 total yards in the win. It also held the Trojans to just 330 total yards while forcing two turnovers defensively. I expect a similar blowout this Saturday as the Midshipmen run wild on the Trojans once again.
The Midshipmen are 10-1 ATS in road games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 8.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. Navy is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 road games overall. The Trojans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Roll with Navy Saturday.
|11-10-12||Arizona State +9.5 v. USC||17-38||Loss||-110||67 h 30 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona State +9.5
The USC Trojans are in a huge letdown spot here. They'd have their hands full with Arizona State regardless, but given the situation I can see them losing this one outright. The Sun Devils are better than they get credit for and will give the Trojans a run for their money here.
USC's biggest game of the year took place last Saturday in a 51-62 home loss to the Oregon Ducks. It had a chance to salvage its season with a win in that game, but that hope is long gone now. USC came into the season with national title hopes, and now it has little to play for the rest of the way having already suffered three losses.
Arizona State is highly motivated to bounce back from three straight losses to three really good teams in Oregon, UCLA and Oregon State. Its last two losses have come in heartbreaking fashion by a combined 12 points to the Bruins and Beavers. This team will respond better than USC will this week given the situation.
The Sun Devils have played some of their best football on the road this season. They are 2-1 away from home with road wins over California and Colorado by a combined 44 points. Their lone loss on the road came at Missouri by a final of 20-24.
Arizona State didn't have all that great of a team last season, yet it beat USC 43-22 at home as a 2.5-point favorite. It also took the Trojans down to the wire on the road in 2010, losing by a final of 33-34 as a 6-point underdog.
When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that the Sun Devils are a very good team. They rank 31st in the country in total offense (457.8 yards/game) and 24th in total defense (333.3 yards/game). As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by a whopping 124.5 yards/game.
USC is 0-6 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. The Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. USC is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take Arizona State Saturday.
|11-10-12||Evansville v. Notre Dame -14||49-58||Loss||-110||3 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -14
Mike Brey is counting on Jack Cooley (12.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) to lead a squad that returns all five starters and added 6-10 Michigan State transfer Garrick Sherman and freshmen forwards Cameron Biedscheid and Zach Auguste. The other returning starters are guards Jerian Grant and Eric Atkins, who both averaged more than 12 points a game last season, sixth-year player Scott Martin and Pat Connaughton.
This is a team that should have no problem rolling by 15-plus against the overmatched Evansville Purple Aces. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|11-10-12||Wisconsin v. Indiana +7||Top||62-14||Loss||-105||64 h 32 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +7
The Indiana Hoosiers have been under the radar all season. What's amazing is that this basketball school is actually starting to become a legitimate football program, but public bettors fail to realize it yet. As a result, they are showing great value as a touchdown underdog at home to Wisconsin once again Saturday.
Indiana is just 4-5 this season, but it could easily be 8-1. It has four losses by 4 points or less. They are 39-41 to Ball State, 27-32 to Michigan State, 49-52 to Ohio State and 30-31 to Navy.
This team has bounced back nicely from five straight losses with two solid wins over Illinois and Iowa. Now, Indiana controls its destiny in representing the Leaders division in the Big Ten title game. Both Ohio State and Penn State are ineligible, so the Hoosiers are just one game behind Wisconsin. A win Saturday would move them into first place due to the tiebreaker.
Wisconsin is certainly down this season, yet it isn't getting treated like it. It has fortunate close wins over North Iowa, Utah State and UTEP. Its only Big Ten wins have come against Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota, three teams with a combined 1-14 record in Big Ten play. The Badgers are overrated and will meet their match this weekend.
The Badgers are 0-6 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wisconsin is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet Indiana Saturday.
|11-09-12||Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets -4.5||84-104||Win||100||22 h 42 m||Show|
15* Jazz/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -4.5
The Denver Nuggets are under the radar in the early going due to their 0-3 start against a brutal schedule. I believe they should be a heavier favorite tonight against the Utah Jazz at home. This Nuggets team is one of the best in the league in my opinion and as the season progresses, you will see that.
Denver opened with three straight tough road games at the 76ers, Magic and Heat for their 0-3 start. They picked up their first win of the year with a 109-97 home victory over Detroit, then went on the road to beat Houston 93-87. You would be hard-pressed to find another team with a tougher schedule thus far.
Utah is in a big letdown spot following its 95-86 home win over the Los Angeles Lakers. This has been a great home team throughout the years, and they have opened 2-0 at home this season. However, the Jazz are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road this year, falling to the Hornets, Spurs and Grizzlies.
The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Utah is 19-39 ATS in its last 58 games following a ATS win. The favorite is 31-15-3 ATS in the last 49 meetings. The Jazz are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Denver. Take the Nuggets Friday.
|11-09-12||Maryland Terrapins +11.5 v. Kentucky||69-72||Win||100||20 h 35 m||Show|
15* Maryland/Kentucky CBB Season Opener on Maryland +11.5
The Kentucky Wildcats are way over-hyped coming into the season. They won the National Championship last year, and now they have a TV show about them on ESPN heading into the 2012-13 campaign. They can't live up to the hype, and that will be reflected against the point spreads early in the season.
Kentucky loses all five starters from last season. Sure, John Calipari is an excellent recruiter, but you just don't replace the five guys they lost. They will have to replace 92 percent of last year's offense with another freshman class.
"I like our talent. I like our size. I like our length. We have some guys with pretty good speed," Calipari said. "We're just not a good basketball team right now. Too many young guys that we're trying to bring along."
Several key players return for Maryland. They are 7-foot-1 sophomore center Alex Len, 6-8 senior forward James Padgett and guards Pe'Shon Howard and Nick Faust. With Len, Padgett, and highly touted freshmen Shaquille Cleare (6-9, 262 pounds) and Charles Mitchell (6-8, 260) rotating in the frontcourt, the Terrapins expect to control the boards against most teams. Both Cleare and Mitchell were Top 100 recruits.
I just like the veteran experience on this team up against the inexperienced, over-hyped Wildcats in the first game of the season. This one should go right down to the wire as the Terrapins easily stay within double-digits. Roll with Maryland Friday.
|11-09-12||Pittsburgh v. Connecticut +3.5||Top||17-24||Win||100||70 h 30 m||Show|
20* Pitt/UConn ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Connecticut +3.5
The Panthers could be in a huge letdown spot here. They have to be deflated after their triple overtime loss to the Fighting Irish last Saturday, which was their chance to salvage a poor season. I foresee them showing up mentally to play this game Friday after such a tough defeat.
Connecticut has been better than its 3-6 record would indicate. It is actually outgaining opponents by 28 yards per game this season, which is a number more indicative of a team that would be above .500 on the year. It remains competitive thanks to a stop unit gives up just 18.6 points per game, and one that ranks 9th in the country in total defense at 290.2 yards per game allowed.
Pittsburgh is 1-3 on the road this season where it is scoring just 17.2 points per game and averaging 331 total yards per game. It will have a hard time moving the football on this stingy Huskies
|11-08-12||Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5||27-10||Loss||-100||25 h 27 m||Show|
15* Colts/Jaguars NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Jacksonville +3.5
The betting public is all over the Colts this week. Not too many public bettors are going to want to put their money down on Jacksonville with how poorly they