Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-01-18 | Costal Carolina +29.5 v. South Carolina | 15-49 | Loss | -106 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Line Mistake on Coastal Carolina +29.5 The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers will be playing their first season as an official FBS member after dominating in FCS over the past five years. They won 12, 12, 9 and 10 games from 2013-2016. Last year they played a schedule that featured 11 FBS teams to get them prepared for this season. They went just 3-9 last year, but there were some highlights, and evidence that they were better than their record would suggest. They went 1-5 in games decided by 8 points or less. But they won their final two games against Idaho and Georgia Southern outright as underdogs to give them some momentum heading into 2018. Now they have 12 returning starters after having just 9 back last year. And one huge factor is that head coach Joe Moglia, the former FCS Coach of the Year, missed the entire season last year with a lung infection. He’s back healthy now and will be on the sidelines coaching this team up. Perhaps Coastal Carolina’s most impressive effort last season was in a loss. The Chanticleers went on the road as 23-point underdogs and nearly upset SEC foe Arkansas 38-39. That effort showed that they could play with the big boys, which is a big reason why I think they can hang with South Carolina, or at least stay within this 29.5-point spread. South Carolina overachieved last year by going 9-4. They were opposite of Coastal Carolina in terms of luck in close games. The Gamecocks went 6-1 in games decided by 8 points or less. They didn’t beat anyone by more than 26 points. They only beat Wofford 31-10 as 27-point home favorites, and they only beat Louisiana Tech 17-16 as 9-point home favorites. So now expectations are high for the Gamecocks heading into 2018 when they really shouldn’t be because they simply were lucky in close games last year and were really closer to a 6-7 or 7-6 team rather than a 9-4 one. They do have 14 starters back and return some key playmakers, but they should not be 29.5-point favorites here in the opener. That’s especially the case when you consider South Carolina won’t be able to help but overlook Coastal Carolina. They have their ‘game of the year’ on deck next week hosting Georgia. They will want to make sure that everyone is healthy for that game, which means they will likely pull the starters or limit their snaps at the first opportunity they get. They are just looking to win this game, not win it by margin. Bet Coastal Carolina Saturday. |
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08-31-18 | Rockies -120 v. Padres | 0-7 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado Rockies -120 After a tough 3-2 loss in extra innings last night, I look for the Rockies to bounce back with the victory over the San Diego Padres Friday in Game 2 of this series. They’re in the middle of a pennant race and are certainly the more motivated team in this matchup. Antonio Senzatela is 2-3 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.322 WHIP in seven starts for the Rockies this season. While not great, he is still clearly the better starter here. And Senzatela has never lost to the Padres, going 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in three career starts against them. Brett Kennedy is getting a chance to start here down the stretch for the Padres. It hasn’t gone well for him at all. Kennedy is 0-2 with a 7.58 ERA and 1.949 WHIP in four starts this season, giving up 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 19 innings. San Diego is 3-15 off three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Rockies are 14-3 in their last 17 during Game 2 of a series. Colorado is 5-1 in its last six games following a loss. The Rockies are 8-2 in Senzatela’s last 10 starts vs. NL West opponents. The Padres are 0-4 in Kennedy’s last four starts. San Diego is 19-45 in its last 64 games overall, including 8-22 in its last 30 home games. Roll with the Rockies Friday. |
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08-31-18 | Colorado State v. Colorado -7.5 | Top | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 84 h 50 m | Show |
20* Colorado State/Colorado CFB Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado -7.5 The Colorado Buffaloes won the Pac-12 South in 2016 despite being picked by most outlets to finish last. Head coach Mike MacIntyre always gets the most out of his teams. They were due for some regression last year, and they did at 5-7, but still came within one win of making a bowl but lost their final three games. They had just 12 returning starters last year, including only 3 on defense. I realize they only have 10 returning starters in 2018, but this is actually a better team than the ’17 version. I love the offense led by Steven Montez, a junior who threw for 2,975 yards and 18 touchdowns with nine interceptions, while also rushing for 338 yards and three scores. The offense boasts nine junior and senior starters and will be better than what you would expect for having just four returning starters. Improvement will come from a defense that returns six starters, including each of the top three tacklers from a year ago. This unit slipped big-time last year going from nine returning starters in ’16 to just three in ’17. But they still only allowing 28.2 points per game, a respectable number considering all they had to replace. This should now be one of the better stop units in the Pac-12 again. Colorado State is one of the single-least experienced team in FBS, ranking #130 in terms of returning experience. They have just nine starters and 39 lettermen returning. They lost QB Nick Stevens (3,799 yards, 29 TD), leading rusher Dalyn Dawkins (1,399 yards, 8 TD) and leading receiver Michael Gallup (100 receptions, 1,413 yards, 7 TD) on offense. Defensively, they have just five starters back. I think you saw everything you needed to know about how bad Colorado State is going to be this season in their opener against Hawaii on Saturday. They were favored by 17 over a Hawaii team that brought back just 9 starters this season. They trailed 37-7 as their offense couldn’t get anything going against an awful Hawaii defense. And by the time they did get their offense going, it was too late as they lost 34-43. Their defense gave up 617 total yards to the Warriors. Colorado is 8-2 in its last 10 meetings with Colorado State in Denver. Those eight wins have come by an average of 16 points per game. The Rams were better the last two seasons than they will be this season, yet the Buffaloes crushed them 44-7 in 2016 and 17-3 in 2017. Colorado State is at a disadvantage here having to play on a short week after facing Hawaii on Saturday, Meanwhile, the Buffaloes had all offseason to prepare for this one, and now have some actual game film to do so all week. The Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall. Colorado State is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games. Bet Colorado Friday. |
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08-31-18 | Utah State v. Michigan State UNDER 51.5 | 31-38 | Loss | -107 | 81 h 25 m | Show | |
15* CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Utah State/Michigan State UNDER 51.5 I expect a defensive battle tonight between Utah State and Michigan State in the season opener for both teams. Both squads have experienced defenses returning, which will be the strength of both teams in 2018. Michigan State went 10-3 last year despite averaging just 24.5 points per game. That’s because they won a lot of close games and their defense was tremendous, giving up just 20.0 points and 298 yards per game despite having just four starters back on D last year. Now the Spartans have 9 starters and 10 of their top 11 tacklers back on defense and will have one of the best stop units in the country. Utah State gave up 26.9 points per game last season with just 5 starters back on defense. Now they have 9 starters and 19 of their top 21 tacklers back on defense and will have one of the best stop units in the Mountain West. This should be one of Matt Wells’ best defenses yet as he enters his 6th season wit the Aggies. In his first three years, they surrendered just 339.6 yards per game. It’s the most returning experience he’s had on any defense yet. Utah State’s offense isn’t anything special, either. The Aggies played two Power 5 teams last year and managed just 10 points against Wisconsin and 10 points against Wake Forest. Both teams have a lot of experience returning on offense as well, but that’s not necessarily a good thing considering both offenses were sub-par a year ago. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game that features both teams having 8 or more defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 42-12 (77.8%) over the last five seasons. Michigan State is 9-1 to the UNDER as a home favorite over the last three seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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08-30-18 | Rockies -140 v. Padres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -140 The Colorado Rockies are trying to keep pace with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers in the NL West. They are 0.5 games behind the Diamondbacks and 0.5 games ahead of the Dodgers. They need wins right now, and this four-game series against the Padres is a great opportunity for them. German Marquez has been at his best on the road this season. He is 7-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 13 road starts. Marquez has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts coming in. He is 6-1 with a 3.02 ERA in his last 10 starts, giving up 19 earned runs in 56 2/3 innings with 76 K’s. Marquez is 2-1 with a 3.20 ERA in his last four starts against the Padres. Eric Lauer is one of the worst starters in baseball. He is 5-7 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.708 WHIP in 18 starts this season while averaging just 4.8 innings per start. He is 0-2 with an 11.45 ERA and 2.182 WHIP in his last three starts. Lauer is 0-1 with an 18.00 ERA and 3.333 WHIP in one career start against Colorado, giving up 6 earned runs and 10 base runners in 3 innings of an 8-0 loss to them back on April 24th. Colorado is 9-2 in its last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rockies are 8-2 in Marquez’s last 10 starts, including 5-1 in his last six road starts. The Padres are 18-45 in their last 63 games overall. San Diego is 1-7 in Lauer’s last eight starts during game 1 of a series. Bet the Rockies Thursday. |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest -6.5 v. Tulane | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 48 m | Show |
20* Wake Forest/Tulane Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Wake Forest -6.5 The Wake Forest Demon Deacons just get no respect. They went 8-5 last season and 8-3-2 ATS in their 13 games. Dave Clawson has now gotten the Demon Deacons to back-to-back bowl games and enters his 5th season in Winston-Salem. Clawson has 14 returning starters this season. He has eight starters back from an offense that set a school record with 454 points last year and averaged 35.3 points and 466 yards per game. They were competitive in every game last season due to the offense and did not get beat by more than 14 points once all season. The offense is led by an offensive line that returns all five starters and a whopping 132 career starts. This will be one of the best units in the ACC. Each of the top two receivers are back from last year in Great Dortch (53 receptions, 722 yards, 9 TD) and Scotty Washington (45, 711, 3 TD), as is leading rusher Matt Colburn (904 yards, 7 TD). That will help ease the transition of the new quarterback. Wake Forest does have only six starters back on defense, but should be improved from a unit that gave up 28.3 points per game last season with just five starters back. Their weakness last year was against the pass as they gave up 272 yards per game through the air. But that won’t be a problem against Tulane, which runs an option attack. And the Demon Deacons have a huge advantage getting to prepare all offseason for the option. I like what Willie Fritz is doing at Tulane. He enters his 3rd season here from a team that went 5-7 last year and fell just a few yards shy of beating SMU in the season finale and making a bowl game. Fritz has 14 starters back and the Green Wave should be competitive again against most AAC teams, but this is a different story here against one of the most underrated teams in the ACC. With nine starters back on offense, the Green Wave should be able to match or exceed last year’s 27.5 PPG in which they had eight starters back. But they do lose leading rusher Montreal Hilliard (1,091 yards, 12 TD). QB Jonathan Banks is back to run the offense and should be able to have a decent senior season, though he competed just 56.6% of his passes last year and accuracy will always be an issue for him. The reason I really love Wake Forest is because I believe their high-powered offense will score at will against this suspect Tulane defense. The Green Wave return just 5 starters on defense from a unit that gave up 29.2 points and 436 yards per game last season. This defense is clearly worse off than it was a year ago as they lose their top three playmakers in Rae Juan Marbley, Jarrod Franklin and Parry Nickerson (6 INT). The lose 3.5 defensive line starters and 7 of their top 12 tacklers. The Demon Deacons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. Wake Forest is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall. The Demon Deacons are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf. Tulane is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 vs. ACC opponents. They are losing by 27.7 points per game in this situation. The last time Tulane hosted a Power 5 team to open the season they lost to ACC opponent Duke 37-7 back in 2015. Bet Wake Forest Thursday. |
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08-30-18 | New Mexico State v. Minnesota -20 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 78 h 22 m | Show | |
15* NMSU/Minnesota BTN No-Brainer on Minnesota -20 Unfortunately, I took New Mexico State +4 against Wyoming in their opener. I couldn’t have been more wrong. But I’m willing to realize my mistakes and correct them. After watching just how ugly New Mexico State looked against a mediocre Wyoming squad, I have no doubt they are going to have many of the same issues against Minnesota Thursday night. New Mexico State had negative yards on offense in the first half against Wyoming last week and themselves trailing 15-0. It didn’t get much better in the second half as they trailed 29-0 before getting a garbage TD in the final seconds to lose 29-7. They were outgained 450 to 135 for the game, or by 315 total yards. Wyoming ran wild on the NMSU defense for 313 rushing yards and 5.6 yards per carry. Now the Aggies must play on a short week having just four days to prepare for Minnesota, another team that loves to run the football as they averaged 182 rushing yards per game last season. The Gophers should be able to move the ball on the ground at will on a tired NMSU defense. PJ Fleck enters his second season at Minnesota. He has more of his players in place to take on bigger roles this season. He has 14 returning starters as well and this should be one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten after a 5-7 campaign in his first season. The Gophers can only be better offensively as they return seven starters, their leading rusher, top two receivers and four starters along the offensive line. The problem last year was QB play as it was atrocious. That means it can only get better, and Fleck true freshman recruit Zack Annexstad will get the first crack at the job. He beat out fellow freshman Tanner Morgan, who many expected to win the job. Fleck turned an inexperienced defense that returned just five starters last year into one of the Big Ten’s best units. The Gophers only allowed 22.8 points and 347 yards per game. Now they return seven starters, led by leading tackler Thomas Barber (115 tackles, 10.5 for loss) at linebacker. This is an experienced unit that is expected to have nine junior or senior starters. One of the sophomores is Antoine Winfield, who got a medical redshirt and will be one of the best safeties in the Big Ten. Minnesota should be able to shut down a New Mexico State offense that lost its top three playmakers from a year ago. They lost the school’s second all-time leading passer in Tyler Rogers from a passing offense that ranked 3rd in the country last season. They also lost 1,000-yard receiver Jaleel Scott (1,079 yards, 9 TD) and star RB Larry Rose, who accounted for 1,471 yards and 12 touchdowns from scrimmage last year. It was clear NMSU misses this trio when they managed just 7 points and 135 total yards against Wyoming last week. New Mexico State is 10-30-1 ATS in its last 41 games following a double-digit home loss. The Aggies are 3-15 in their last 18 road openers, and 0-12 in their last 12 against Power 5 schools. The Gophers have won 19 of their last 23 home openers, and five of their last six with their only loss coming to #2 TCU 17-23 as 16-point underdogs in 2015. NMSU having to play on a short week off a very physical game and against another physical opponent here is such a huge schedule disadvantage for them. That’s why I’m willing to lay this many points with the Gophers. Doug Martin is 0-11 ATS after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game in all games he has coached. Take Minnesota Thursday. |
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08-29-18 | Nationals v. Phillies -120 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
25* NL East GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Phillies -120 The Philadelphia Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday night. They have lost eight of their last 10, including the first two games of this series against the Nationals by a combined three runs. They will be looking to avoid the sweep here tonight. I like their chances with gritty veteran Jake Arrieta on the mound. That’s why they signed him this offseason to pitch in games like this. Arrieta is 4-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.136 WHIP in 12 home starts this year. Arrieta has posted a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts against the Nationals while giving up just 3 earned runs in 15 innings. Gio Gonzalez is 7-11 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.521 WHIP in 26 starts this season for the Nationals. Gonzalez comes in really scuffling, going 0-3 with an 8.04 ERA and 1.851 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 14 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings. Two of those starts were against the Mets and Marlins. Gonzalez is 0-8 (-10.3 units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an OBP of .325 or worse this season. Philadelphia is 12-1 following a one-run loss this season. The Phillies are 15-3 in their last 18 after losing the first two games of a series. Philadelphia is 19-7 in its last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Nationals are 1-7 in Gonzalez’s last eight starts. Washington is 0-8 in Gonzalez’s last eight road starts. Bet the Phillies Wednesday. |
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08-28-18 | Rockies -127 v. Angels | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
20* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado Rockies -127 The Colorado Rockies blew a pair of two-run leads, including one in the 8th inning, against the Angels last night. Look for them to come back motivated for a victory here tonight in Game 2 of this Interleague series. I’ll gladly back Kyle Freeland, who is 11-7 with a 2.96 ERA in 26 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 14 starts since June 16th. He has been the most consistent starter for the Rockies and will get the job done tonight. After 102 major league relief appearances, Angels’ right-hander Noe Ramirez will make his first career start on Tuesday. Ramirez, who is 4-4 with a 4.76 ERA this season, earned his first career save Monday night. Now he’ll be tasked with just one or two innings here for the Angels as this will be a bullpen game for them. The Rockies are 9-1 in Freeland’s last 10 starts. Colorado is 13-3 in its last 16 during Game 2 of a series. The Angels are 1-6 in their last seven games overall. Los Angeles is 22-46 in its last 68 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Rockies Tuesday. |
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08-27-18 | Rockies -135 v. Angels | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -135 The Colorado Rockies are right in the thick of the NL West race. They are just one game back of the Diamondbacks for first place. The Angels are 0-6 in their last six games overall and have completely fallen out of playoff contention. I’ll back the more motivated team in Game 1 of this series tonight. Colorado starter Jon Gray has been on a tear since his last loss on June 12th. Gray is 4-0 with a 3.48 ERA in his last 10 starts. Colorado is providing him with plenty of support, averaging 6.6 runs in those 10 starts. Look for the Rockies to hang a big number on Odrisamer Despaigne, who has been called up here late in the season and has struggled mightily. Despaigne is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in three starts this season, all of which have come in the month of August. The Rockies are 9-0 in Gray’s last nine starts. Colorado is 4-0 in its last four road games. The Angels are 21-46 in their last 67 vs. a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 0-6 in its last six games overall. Bet the Rockies Monday. |
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08-26-18 | Cardinals -2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
20* Cardinals/Cowboys NBC Sunday No-Brainer on Arizona -2.5 No Analysis for Preseason. |
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08-26-18 | Red Sox v. Rays -108 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Rays -108 The Tampa Bay Rays have now reeled off seven straight victories after beating the Red Sox in both games of this series by a combined 15-4 margin. The Red Sox are just 2-5 in their last seven games overall and coasting to the finish line. Blake Snell is the best-kept secret in baseball. He should be receiving serious Cy Young consideration, but he’s not. Snell is 15-5 with a 2.07 ERA and 1.007 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 7-1 with a 1.02 ERA and 0.892 WHIP In 10 home starts. Snell is 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox in 2018, allowing just 2 earned runs in 19 innings. Nathan Eovaldi has struggled since being traded to the Red Sox. He is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 2.308 WHIP in his last three starts coming in. Eovaldi is 2-4 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.301 WHIP in nine road starts this season as well. The Rays are 7-0 in their last seven games overall. Tampa Bay is 11-1 in its last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rays are 13-3 in Snell’s last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay is 38-17 in its last 55 home games. Bet the Rays Sunday. |
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08-26-18 | Phillies -108 v. Blue Jays | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -108 The Philadelphia Phillies are in contention to win the NL East. But they have gone just 1-6 in their last seven games overall. They’ll be highly motivated for a victory here Sunday to turn this thing around and to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the Blue Jays. Vincent Velasquez is having a solid season at 7-9 with a 4.10 EAR and 135 K’s in 123 innings across 24 starts. Velasquez has been at his best on the road this season, going 2-4 with a 2.97 ERA in 11 starts away from home. Marco Estrada has mostly struggled this year for the Blue Jays. He is 7-9 with a 4.88 ERA in 22 starts this season, 3-5 with a 4.91 ERA in 11 home starts, and 2-1 with a 6.23 ERA in his last three starts overall. Estrada has posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in five career starts against Philadelphia. The Phillies are 14-3 in their last 17 games after losing the first two games of a series, so they have been great at avoiding sweeps when in this situation. The Blue Jays are 2-9 in Estrada’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Phillies Sunday. |
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08-25-18 | Wyoming v. New Mexico State +4 | Top | 29-7 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
20* Wyoming/New Mexico State ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico State +4 New Mexico State went to a bowl game for the first time since 1960 last year. Not only did the Aggies get to a bowl, they actually upset Utah State 26-20 in overtime. Head coach Doug Martin has done a tremendous job of turning this program around as he enters his 6th season here. Now the Aggies return 15 starters and 49 lettermen in 2018 while losing only 13 lettermen. The strength of this team will be a defense that gave up their fewest points per game since 2003 last year. They have nine starters and 10 of their top 11 tacklers back on D. They were an attacking D last year that set a school record with 43 sacks. Frank Spaziani, the former Boston College head coach, is a big reason for the turnaround. He enters his second season running the defense. There are questions for the Aggies offensively as they return 6 starts and lose their top three playmakers. However, they have a junior back in Jason Huntley that is ready to take over for Larry Rose. Huntley averaged 6.0 YPC last season compared to 5.1 for Rose. Four of their top five receivers are back, so that helps soften the loss of 1,000-yard receiver Jaleel Scott. The biggest loss is QB Tyler Rogers, who was third in the country at 334.7 passing yards per game last season. However, the Aggies signed JUCO transfer Matt Romero in the offseason. He threw for 5,873 yards and 49 touchdowns over two seasons at Palomar College in California. It’s a great fit for Romero, who ran the exact same offense at Palomar. And six offensive linemen with starting experience return this season, helping ease Romero’s transition. Wyoming does have a lot of experience back as well with 17 returning starters, but many of those players are hurt. Two projected starters along the offensive line will be out with injuries. WR CJ Johnson, who led the team with 7 TD receptions last year, is out. LB Cassh Mauluia (74 tackles last year) is also out. So technically, they have just 13 healthy starters for Game 1 from last year. And the biggest loss is QB Josh Allen, who was taken as a first-round draft pick of the Buffalo Bills. They even traded up to get him. I know his numbers weren’t great last year, but he’s the biggest reason the Cowboys were able to make bowl games each of the past two seasons. You simply don’t replace a talent like Allen at a school as small as Wyoming. The Cowboys will now be starting a freshman QB this year. New Mexico State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. MWC opponents. The Aggies are 18-9 ATS in all games over the past two seasons. Bets on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (New Mexico State) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference game are 67-27 (71.3%) ATS since 1992. Wyoming is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 games as a road favorite. The Aggies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. Bet New Mexico State Saturday. |
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08-25-18 | Saints v. Chargers +1 | 36-7 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
15* Saints/Chargers CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +1 No Analysis for Preseason. |
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08-25-18 | A's -150 v. Twins | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland A’s -150 The Oakland A’s are worth the price of -150 today against the Minnesota Twins. The A’s are in a pennant race thanks to going 43-16 in their last 59 games overall. Look for them to make easy work of the Minnesota Twins tonight. Miek Fiers has been one of the most profitable starters in baseball. He is 9-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 24 starts this season between Detroit and Oakland. He has shined in an A’s uniform, going 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA in three starts since his acquisition. Fiers is also 5-1 with a 3.26 ERA in eight career starts against Minnesota with his teams going 7-1 in those matchups. Stephen Gonsalves is getting a chance here down the stretch for the Twins. His MLB debut was a nightmare last time out as he allowed 4 runs and 8 base runners while needing 55 pitches just to get through 1 1/3 innings Monday against the Chicago White Sox. I don’t trust him against the A’s today, either. The A’s are 9-1 in their last 10 Saturday games. Oakland is 40-12 in its last 52 vs. a team with a losing record. The A’s are 28-13 in the last 41 meetings. Take the A’s Saturday. |
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08-25-18 | Ravens -1 v. Dolphins | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
20* NFLX Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -1 No Analysis for Preseason. |
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08-24-18 | Broncos v. Redskins UNDER 43.5 | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
25* NFLX TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Broncos/Redskins UNDER 43.5 No Analysis for Preseason. |
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08-24-18 | Braves -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-115) The Atlanta Braves have it out for the Miami Marlins. The Marlins plunked Acuna Jr. on August 15th and now they have their shot at revenge this series. Game 1 was heated with more hit batters, but the Braves prevailed 5-0. I expect them to win by two runs or more once again tonight in Game 2. Mike Foltynewicz is having a stellar season that will continue tonight. He is 10-7 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 24 starts, including 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in his last three. One of those starts was against Miami on August 13th as he pitched 8 innings while allowing just one earned run in a 6-1 victory. Folty is 5-1 with a 3.08 ERA in nine career starts against Miami, and his teams are 8-1 in those games. Daniel Straily is 4-6 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 20 starts for the Marlins this season, including 2-1 with a 4.94 ERA in nine home starts. He is also 0-1 with a 5.62 ERA in his last three starts. Straily has posted a 5.00 ERA and 1.511 WHIP in nine career starts against Atlanta. In his last start against the Braves on July 31st, Straily gave up 8 runs, 5 earned and 12 base runners in 3 2/3 innings of a 6-11 loss. The Braves are 5-0 in Folty’s last five starts on 5 days’ rest. Atlanta is 4-0 in its last four games overall. The Braves are 37-15 in their last 52 vs. NL East opponents. The Marlins are 3-14 in their last 17 vs. a team with a. Winning record. Miami is 1-6 in Straily’s last seven starts vs. NL East foes. Bet the Braves on the Run Line Friday. |
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08-23-18 | A's -157 v. Twins | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -157 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A’s -157 The Oakland A’s have been the best teams in baseball over the past two months. They are 42-15 in their last 57 games overall and now neck-and-neck with the Houston Astros for first place in the AL West. Look for them to handle the Minnesota Twins tonight. Trevor Cahill has come up huge down the stretch for the A’s. He is 5-2 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in 15 starts this season. Cahill is also 1-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in four career starts against Minnesota. Kohl Stewart has been given a test run here down the stretch. It has not gone well for him as he has gone 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA and 2.286 WHIP in two starts while allowing 6 earned runs and 16 base runners in 7 innings. Both starts came against the light-hitting Detroit Tigers. Oakland is 15-1 in its last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record. It is winning by 4.0 runs per game in this spot. The A’s are 7-0 in Cahill’s last seven starts. Bet the A’s Thursday. |
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08-23-18 | Eagles v. Browns -3 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
15* Eagles/Browns FOX Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland -3 No Analysis for Preseason. |
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08-22-18 | Padres v. Rockies -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -1.5 (-115) The Colorado Rockies should come back highly motivated for a victory Wednesday after getting upset by the San Diego Padres last night. Look for them to win this game by two runs or more thanks to their big advantage on the mound. Jon Gray is back healthy and pitching well for the Rockies. He has 157 K’s in 134 1/3 innings this season so the stuff is clearly there. Gray is also 6-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 13 career starts against San Diego, so he owns the Padres. The Padres are so far out of contention that they are looking to give their prospects a look here down the stretch. Jacob Nix has made two starts, going 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.949 WHIP. He has allowed 5 earned runs and 13 base runners in 6 2/3 innings. Now he has the daunting task of making a start at Coors Field. The Rockies are 8-0 in Gray’s last eight starts, in which he has gone 3-0 with a 3.04 ERA, 11 walks and 57 K’s in 53 1/3 innings. Opponents have hit just .214 with a .624 OPS against Gray during this stretch. They’ll win his 9th straight start tonight. Bet the Rockies on the Run Line Wednesday. |
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08-21-18 | Padres v. Rockies -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+106) The Colorado Rockies are rolling right now. They have gone 8-1 in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming on the road to Houston. This run has come against the Dodgers, Astros and Braves. They just swept the Braves in Atlanta. Look for the Rockies to win by two runs or more tonight thanks to their advantage on the mound. Tyler Anderson is 2-3 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in 12 home starts this season. What he’s done at Coors Field is nothing short of remarkable. Anderson is also 2-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in six career starts against San Diego. The Padres are just 1-6 in their last seven games overall. Robbie Erlin won’t be able to stop the bleeding. Erlin is 1-2 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in five starts this season. He is 1-2 with an 8.64 ERA and 2.040 WHIP in four career starts against Colorado as well. The Padres are 15-40 in their last 55 games overall. San Diego is 3-9 in Erlin’s last 12 starts. The Rockies are 12-2 in their last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter, including 5-0 in their last five home games against a southpaw. Colorado is 20-7 in its last 27 home games. Bet the Rockies on the Run Line Tuesday. |
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08-20-18 | Reds v. Brewers -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-110) The Brewers picked up a gutsy 2-1 win over the Cardinals yesterday. They are fighting for their lives to make the wild card and to stay alive in the NL Central race. They need wins right now a lot more than the Cincinnati Reds, who are simply playing for pride. The Brewers should be able to win by at least two runs tonight thanks to their huge advantage on the mound. Chase Anderson is 7-7 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.199 WHIP in 24 starts this season. Anderson is 4-1 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in nine career starts against Cincinnati. Homer Bailey has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last handful of years. He is 1-10 with a 6.33 ERA and 1.629 WHIP in 16 starts this season. Bailey is also 7-10 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in 27 career starts against Milwaukee. Bailey is 0-9 vs. a team with a winning record this season, and the Reds are losing by 2.8 runs per game in this spot. Bailey is 1-15 in all games this season with the Reds losing by 2.6 runs per game on average. Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Monday. |
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08-20-18 | Ravens -1.5 v. Colts | Top | 20-19 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
20* Ravens/Colts ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore -1.5 No Analysis for Preseason. |
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08-19-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -105 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -105 I’m back on the Cardinals again today. Oddsmakers just haven’t adjusted to the fact that this has been the best team in the National League since the All-Star Break. We’re getting the Cardinals again at nearly even money here Sunday. They have gone 10-1 in their last 11 games overall. John Gant is 3-4 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.173 WHIP in 11 starts this season. He is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in his last two starts, allowing just 2 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings. I expect him to shut down the Brewers this afternoon. Jhoulys Chacin is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today. This guy has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-7 with a 6.54 ERA and 1.711 WHIP in eight career starts against them. He has given up 17 runs, 14 earned, in 14 2/3 innings across three starts against the Cardinals in 2018. The Brewers are 4-15 in Sunday games this season. Milwaukee is 3-14 in its last 17 during Game 3 of a series. The Brewers are 1-10 in their last 11 vs. NL Central opponents. The Cardinals are 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. St. Louis is 7-1 in its last eight home games. Bet the Cardinals Sunday. |
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08-18-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -139 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -139 The St. Louis Cardinals are rolling right now. They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall to pull within a 0.5-game of the Brewers for the 2nd wild card spot. They can overtake the Brewers with a win today, so it’s safe to say that they’ll be highly motivated. The Cardinals are worth the heavier price today with Miles Mikolas on the mound. Mikolas is 12-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 5-3 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.004 WHIP in 12 home starts. He has won two of his three starts against the Brewers this season with the other being a no-decision. Certainly Wade Miley has solid numbers this season at 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.240 WHIP in eight starts. But it has been a small sample size. Miley has never been able to figure out the Cardinals, going 2-2 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.819 WHIP in five career starts against them. The Cardinals are scoring 5.1 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. The Brewers are 1-9 in their last 10 vs. NL Central opponents. The Cardinals are 9-0 in their last nine after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. St. Louis is 4-0 in Mikolas’ last four starts and 4-0 in his last four home starts. Bet the Cardinals Saturday. |
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08-18-18 | Bengals +3.5 v. Cowboys | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
15* Bengals/Cowboys NFL Network No-Brainer on Cincinnati +3.5 No Analysis for Preseason. |
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08-18-18 | Raiders +100 v. Rams | Top | 15-19 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
20* NFLX GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders ML +100 No Analysis for Preseason. |
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08-17-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -114 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -114 The St. Louis Cardinals are surging right now trying to make the playoffs. They have gone 8-1 in their last nine games overall and now are in position to not only win a wild card spot, but to also chase down the Cubs and Brewers in the NL Central. They are just 1.5 games behind the Brewers, and they host Milwaukee in this three-game series starting with Game 1 Friday. I like the Cardinals’ chances to win Game 1 tonight with Jack Flaherty on the mound. He is 6-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.074 WHIP in 19 starts this season with 127 K’s in 103 1/3 innings. He has won each of his last two starts while allowing just 2 earned runs in 13 innings with 16 K’s. Flaherty is 0-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two starts against the Brewers this season, giving up just 2 earned runs and 10 base runners in 12 innings with a whopping 22 K’s. Freddy Peralta got off to a fast start for the Brewers this season, but teams are certainly catching on to him now. Peralta is 1-2 with a 7.94 ERA in his last five starts. He has allowed a whopping 20 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings during this stretch. Look for the Cardinals to jump on him early and often in this one. St. Louis is 13-3 following a one-run loss this season. The Brewers are 1-8 in their last nine vs. NL Central opponents. The Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 games following a loss. Bet the Cardinals Friday. |
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08-17-18 | Chiefs -125 v. Falcons | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
15* NFLX Friday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Chiefs ML -125 No Analysis for Preseason. |
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08-16-18 | Jets +1 v. Redskins | Top | 13-15 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
20* Jets/Redskins ESPN No-Brianer on New York +1 No analysis for preseason. |
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08-16-18 | Cubs v. Pirates +115 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +115 The Pittsburgh Pirates should not be home underdogs to the Chicago Cubs tonight. This is their time to make a stand at 61-60 on the season and fighting to stay alive for the playoffs. Look for them to take this series with the Cubs very seriously, starting with Game 1 tonight. Jone Lester has been rocked of late and seems to have lost it. He is 0-2 with an 11.19 ERA and 2.268 WHIP in his last three starts, which have come against the Pirates, Padres & Nationals. He has given up 17 earned runs and 6 homers in 13 2/3 innings during this stretch. Lester has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 5 of his last 7 starts against the Pirates. Ivan Nova is 7-6 with a 4.41 ERA in 22 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 3.55 ERA in 10 home starts. Nova is 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in five career starts against the Cubs. He has won both of his starts against the Cubs this season while allowing just 4 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings as +175 and +140 road underdogs. The Pirates are 7-1 in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Pittsburgh is 5-0 in Nova’s last five starts during Game 1 of a series. The Pirates are 5-1 in Nova’s last six starts. Pittsburgh is 4-1 in Nova’s last five starts against Chicago. Bet the Pirates Thursday. |
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08-15-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals -107 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -107 The Cardinals will be seeking their eighth straight win tonight against the Washington Nationals. Their offense has come to life by scoring at least 6 runs in six straight games. And now we’re getting them at basically even money again tonight, which is a great value. Austin Gomber will make his home debut tonight for the Cardinals. He has pitched well in his three road starts, going 1-0 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.239 WHIP. He fired 5 shutout innings in a 7-0 victory in Kansas City last time out on August 10th. Jeremy Hellickson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. Hellickson is 5-2 with a 3.54 ERA in 17 starts this season. But he is only averaging 4.9 innings per start, which means the Cardinals are likely to get into Washington’s suspect bullpen once again. The Nationals have so many injuries at the back end of their ‘pen that they cannot be trusted to close out games. St. Louis is 11-1 in home games off two or more consecutive overs this season. The Nationals are 0-4 in Hellickson’s last four starts vs. a team with a winning record. Washington is 8-20 in its last 28 road games. The Cardinals are 8-0 in their last eight games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Bet the Cardinals Wednesday. |
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08-14-18 | White Sox v. Tigers -126 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Tigers -126 The Detroit Tigers have won three of their last four coming in and continue to play for pride. The Chicago White Sox have gone just 1-6 in their last seven games and lost five of those by two runs or more. I think the Tigers get the job done tonight at a very generous price considering their big advantage on the mound. Blaine Hardy has held his own this season, going 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 12 starts. He is also 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA in seven home starts. Hardy has shut down the White Sox twice this season already, going 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.811 WHIP while allowing just 2 earned runs and 10 base runners in 12 1/3 innings. Lucas Giolito has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season. He is 7-9 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.496 WHIP in 23 starts with a whopping 71 walks and only 84 K's in 125 2/3 innings. Giolito has been rocked in his two starts against the Tigers in 2018, going 0-1 with an 8.18 ERA while allowing 10 earned runs in 11 innings. The White Sox are 39-84 in their last 123 road games. Chicago is 15-38 in its last 53 games vs. a left-handed starters. The Tigers are 5-1 in their last six home games. Detroit is 52-21 in its last 73 home meetings with Chicago, and 10-1 in its last 11 meetings with the White Sox overall. Bet the Tigers Tuesday. |
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08-13-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals -131 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -131 The St. Louis Cardinals (63-55) are on an absolute tear right now. They have won five straight series and have the best record (12-4) in the National League since July 27th. They have scored at least 7 runs in four consecutive games and now sit just 2.5 games back in the wild card, and 5.5 games back of the Cubs for first place in the NL Central. They cannot afford to let off the gas. The Cardinals have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Miles Mikolas. He is 12-3 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 5-3 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 11 home starts. This will be his first career start against the Nationals, who had to play on Sunday Night Baseball last night against the Cubs and won’t be fresh. Tom Milone is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. He has made just three starts this season, going 1-1 with a 5.50 ERA. His first two were decent against the Mets and Marlins, but he was rocked for 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings of a 3-8 loss to the Braves last time out. Look for the Cardinals to stay hot at the plate and touch up Milone as well. The Nationals are 6-16 in their last 22 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Washington is 0-5 in its last five Monday games. The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last five games overall. St. Louis is 6-1 in Mikolas’ last seven starts. The Nationals are 8-23 in their last 31 meetings in St. Louis. Bet the Cardinals Monday. |
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08-12-18 | Diamondbacks -125 v. Reds | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -125 The Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated for a victory here Sunday. They have lost the first two games of this series to the lowly Cincinnati Reds and will be looking to avoid the sweep with a win in Game 3. Considering they are tied for first place in the NL West, every game is important here on out. Zack Godley has really turned his season around. He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 11 starts coming in. He has struck out at least 6 batters in six consecutive starts. He is 3-0 with a 2.68 ERA in his last six starts coming in. Luis Castillo has been overrated for most of the season. He has gone 6-9 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.330 WHIP in 23 starts this year. In his last two starts against the Diamondbacks, Castillo is 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA, allowing 8 earned runs in 11 innings. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Godley’s last five starts vs. a team with a losing record. Arizona is 7-1 in Godley’s last eight starts when working on 5 days’ rest. The Reds are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday. |
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08-11-18 | Diamondbacks -139 v. Reds | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -139 After losing via shutout to the Cincinnati Reds yesterday, the Arizona Diamondbacks should come back highly motivated for a victory here Saturday. They should win in blowout fashion thanks to their advantage on the mound. Robbie Ray has been a machine on the road over the past couple seasons. That has been the case again in 2018 as Ray is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in seven road starts this year. He is also 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati. Matt Harvey is now 5-7 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He has been lit up in his last three starts, going 0-2 with a 10.66 ERA and 1.815 WHIP while allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 12 2/3 innings. Ray is 10-1 (+9.6 units) against the money line in road games vs. a team with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse over the last two seasons. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss. Arizona is 10-2 in Ray’s last 12 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday. |
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08-10-18 | Falcons +4 v. Jets | 0-17 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
15* Falcons/Jets NFLX No-Brainer on Atlanta +4 No Analysis for Preseason. |
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08-10-18 | Diamondbacks -119 v. Reds | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
25* NL GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Diamondbacks -119 The Arizona Diamondbacks are tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the NL West heading into Friday’s action. Wins are of utmost importance to them, while the Reds (50-65) are simply playing out the string at this point, going 2-7 in their last nine games overall. Clay Buchholz has been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues over the past couple months. He is finally healthy this season and it’s showing. Buchholz is 5-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.932 WHIP in six road starts. Anthony DeSclafini is 5-3 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.308 WHIP in 11 starts this season. He is 2-2 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.473 WHIP in seven home starts as well. DeSclafini is no match for Buchholz in this one tonight folks. The Diamondbacks are 10-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Arizona is 4-0 in Buchholz’s last four starts. The Reds are 0-6 in their last six games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Diamondbacks Friday. |
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08-09-18 | Colts v. Seahawks -1 | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
15* Colts/Seahawks NFLX Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle -1 No analysis for preseason. |
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08-09-18 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-110) The New York Yankees should have no problem winning by two runs or more tonight. They have a big advantage on the mound and are motivated fighting for a wild card spot in the American League. J.A. Happ has been excellent in his first few starts in a Yankee uniform. Happ is 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.954 WHIP in his last three starts. Happ has owned the Rangers, going 5-2 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in seven career starts against them. Ariel Jurado will be making just his fourth start of the season tonight. He is 2-1 with a 4.02 ERA through his first three starts. However, this will be his toughest test yet at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Happy is 26-7 after giving up one or fewer earned runs last outing over the past three seasons. His teams are winning by 1.8 runs per game in this spot. The Yankees are 57-19 in their last 76 home games. New York is 6-1 in its last seven vs. a team with a losing record. Texas is 7-19 in its last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Thursday. |
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08-08-18 | Cardinals -111 v. Marlins | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -111 The St. Louis Cardinals are showing great value at basically even money against the lowly Miami Marlins tonight. The Cardinals are trying to stay alive for a playoff spot and have gone 8-4 in their last 12 games overall. John Gant was coming off two straight great starts against the Cubs in limiting them to 2 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings. But he was rocked for 6 runs in 4 innings against the Pirates last time out, and I think he’s being undervalued now because of it. Look for him to bounce back against the light-hitting Marlins today. There’s no question Trevor Richards has pitched well of late for the Marlins, but he’s being overvalued because of it. He’s still just 3-6 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.394 WHIP in 16 starts this season. St. Louis is a perfect 9-0 after scoring 3 runs or less in three straight games this season, and 13-2 when scoring 4 runs or less in three straight games. The Marlins are 1-7 in their last eight games overall. Bet the Cardinals Wednesday. |
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08-07-18 | Mariners -105 v. Rangers | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
20* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Mariners -105 Getting the Mariners at basically even money against the Rangers is a gift from oddsmakers tonight. The Mariners are right in the thick of wild card and AL West races, while the Rangers are 49-65 and playing for pride only. Bartolo Colon certainly doesn’t deserve this kind of respect from oddsmakers. Colon is 5-10 with a 5.32 ERA in 20 starts this season, 2-4 with a 6.10 ERA in nine home starts, and 0-3 with an 8.64 ERA and 1.740 WHIP in his last three starts. Felix Hernandez is the better starter in this matchup. He gave up just two earned runs in his last start against the Blue Jays. He has posted a 4.07 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 56 career starts against Texas. The Mariners are 23-7 in their last 30 vs. a team with a losing record. Seattle is 37-18 in Hernandez’s last 55 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Rangers are 19-46 in their last 65 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Texas is 0-5 in Colon’s last five starts. The Mariners are 6-1 in their last seven meetings in Texas. Seattle is 10-4 in Hernandez’s last 14 starts vs. Texas. Bet the Mariners Tuesday. |
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08-06-18 | Pirates v. Rockies -138 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado Rockies -138 The Colorado Rockies have lost four of their last five and come into this game highly motivated for a victory. They return home after a tough seven-game road trip and should take care the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 1 tonight. Ace Kyle Freeland is having a tremendous season for the Rockies. He is 9-7 with a 3.20 ERA in 22 starts this season. What he has done at home has been nothing short of remarkable. Freeland is 6-2 with a 2.45 ERA in nine starts at hitter-friendly Coors Field. He’ll be opposed by Joe Musgrove, who is 4-5 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.284 WHIP in 11 starts for the Pirates this season. The Pirates are 6-22 in their last 28 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Pittsburgh is 18-44 in its last 62 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Rockies are 12-2 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Colorado is 16-5 in its last 21 home games. The Rockies are 4-0 in Freeland’s last four home starts. Bet the Rockies Monday. |
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08-05-18 | Braves -127 v. Mets | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -127 The Atlanta Braves have won five of their last six coming in. They are showing excellent value as small road favorites over the hapless New York Mets, who are just 2-6 in their last eight games overall. Julio Teheran has done his best work on the road over the past few seasons. He has also owned the Mets, going 9-6 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 22 career starts against them. Corey Oswalt is 1-2 with a 5.56 ERA in five starts for the Mets this season. He is only averaging 4.5 innings per start, so the Braves should be able to get into the Mets’ bullpen early in this one. Teheran has allowed just 2 earned runs over 21 innings in his last three starts against the Mets this season. The Braves are 20-7 in Teheran’s last 27 Sunday starts. The Mets are 20-42 in their last 62 games overall. New York is 35-77 in its last 112 vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are 9-25 in their last 34 games following a win. Bet the Braves Sunday. |
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08-04-18 | Astros v. Dodgers -115 | Top | 14-0 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
20* Astros/Dodgers Interleague No-Brainer on Los Angeles -115 The Los Angeles Dodgers lost Game 1 of this series to the Houston Astros. This is a World Series rematch, so the Dodgers obviously will be highly motivated for revenge in Game 2 tonight. I think they get a win thanks to their big advantage on the mound. Kenta Maeda is 6-6 with a 3.52 ERA in 18 starts this season with 116 K’s in 97 innings. He has been at his best at home, where he’s 3-5 with a 3.22 ERA in 10 starts. Maeda has the luxury of facing a banged-up Astros’ lineup that is missing Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, while George Springer is nursing a shoulder injury but may play. Lance McCullers has really been victimized of late. He is 0-3 with a 9.22 ERA and 1.903 WHIP in his last three starts, giving up 14 earned runs and 26 base runners in 13 2/3 innings. McCullers has always had big home/road splits, and that has been the case again this season. He has posted a 4.67 ERA in 11 road starts in 2018. McCullers is 0-6 (-8.7 units) when playing against a good team (winning 54% to 62%) over the last two seasons. McCullers is 1-9 (-9.1 units) with a money line of +125 to -125 over the last two years. Los Angeles is 8-1 in its last nine home games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Dodgers Saturday. |
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08-03-18 | Blue Jays v. Mariners -165 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -165 The Mariners have been in the playoffs for 2.5 months. But after losing three straight, they now trail the A’s by a half-game for the AL’s final wild-card berth. It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory tonight at home against the Toronto Blue Jays to try and turn things around. Marco Gonzales is just the man to get the job done. He has been the most consistent starter for the Mariners this season. He is 12-5 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in 21 starts, including 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.828 WHIP in his last three. Gonzales is also 5-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 10 home starts this year. Toronto is stuck in no-man’s land at 49-59 on the season. They are out of contention and will be doing nothing but playing spoiler the rest of the way. Ryan Borucki has only made six starts this season. He has been roughed up on the road, going 0-1 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.933 WHIP in three starts away from home. Gonzales is 9-0 (+9.2 units) against the money line after giving up 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last two outings this season. The Blue Jays are 2-8 in their last 10 games following a win. Toronto is 7-25 in its last 32 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Mariners are 6-0 in Gonzales’ last six home starts. Seattle is 21-5 in its last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Mariners Friday. |
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08-02-18 | Bears v. Ravens -2.5 | 16-17 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
15* Bears/Ravens HOF Game No-Braner on Baltimore -2.5 No analysis for preseason. |
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08-02-18 | Reds v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-130) The Washington Nationals are looking to make a serious push in August to chase down the NL East leaders. They have won five of their last seven and have scored a combined 30 runs in winning their last two games. Now they get to host the lowly Cincinnati Reds for a four-game series and will be looking to take advantage. Ace Max Scherzer gets the ball for Game 1 tonight. Scherzer is 14-5 with a 2.30 ERA and 0.901 WHIP in 22 starts this season with 200 K’s in 148 2/3 innings. Scherzer owns the Reds, going 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in five career starts against them. Tyler Mahle is 7-8 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.519 WHIP in 21 starts for the Reds this season. He has really struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 14.00 ERA and 2.889 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs, 5 homers and 26 base runners in 9 innings pitched. The Nationals are 50-20 in Scherzer’s last 70 starts, 18-6 in his last 24 home starts, and 9-1 in his last 10 starts during Game 1 of a series. Washington is 6-1 in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Nationals are 13-3 in the last 16 meetings. Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Thursday. |
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08-01-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -156 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -156 After losing the first two games of this series to the Brewers and three straight overall, the Los Angeles Dodgers come into this game highly motivated for a victory tonight. That’s why I’ll lay the price with them as big home favorites Wednesday. It also helps that Rich Hill has been lights out in his last two starts, including one against Milwaukee. Hill has gone 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in his last two starts, giving up just one earned run in 13 innings while striking out 17 batters. Hill improved to 3-1 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in seven career starts against the Brewers in which his teams have gone 6-1. Chase Anderson is having a fine season for the Brewers at 7-7 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in 21 starts. However, Anderson has never been able to figure out the Dodgers. He is 1-4 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.439 WHIP in 10 career starts against Los Angeles, and his teams have gone 3-7 in those outings. Plays on favorites of -150 or more (LA Dodgers) - starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs in two straight outings, a cold hitting team batting .190 or worse in their last three games are 47-8 (85.5%, +33.5 units) over the last five seasons. Bet the Dodgers Wednesday. |
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07-31-18 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
25* Interleague TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rangers/Diamondbacks OVER 9 Oddsmakers have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Diamondbacks and Rangers. The OVER is 9-3 in Rangers last 12 games overall, and they have combined with their opponents for 10 runs or more 10 times during this stretch. Bartolo Colon will get rocked tonight. He is 5-9 with a 5.16 ERA in 19 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.754 WHIP in his last three starts. Zack Godley hasn’t been much better, going 11-6 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 21 starts this season. Walks have been Godley’s problem as he has 57 on the season, while home runs have been Colon’s problem as he has allowed 23 already. The Rangers have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last seven coming in. The OVER is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last five games overall and they have combined for 9 or more runs four times while scoring at least 5 runs in all five games. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
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07-30-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -145 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -145 Manny Machado finally gets to make his home debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. He’ll get a warm welcome here as the Dodgers get a home game for the first time since July 15th. Look for them to take down the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. Kenta Maeda is having a great season. He is 6-5 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 17 starts with 112 K’s in 92 2/3 innings. He has posted a 2.76 ERA in nine home starts as well. Maeda has owned the Brewers, going 2-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.985 WHIP In four career starts against them. Freddy Peralta was great through his first six starts this season. But opponents are starting to catch on to him. Peralta has gone 0-1 with a 9.31 ERA in his last two starts, giving up 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 2/3 innings to Washington and Miami. The Dodgers are 43-21 in their last 64 games overall. Los Angeles is 6-0 in its last six home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Dodgers are 17-4 in their last 21 games following a loss. Los Angeles is 13-6 in Maeda’s last 19 home starts. Bet the Dodgers Monday. |
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07-29-18 | Diamondbacks -115 v. Padres | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -115 The Arizona Diamondbacks will sweep the San Diego Padres Sunday. They have a big advantage on the mound in this one and are swinging a hot bat. The Diamondbacks have scored 5 or more runs in eight of their last nine games coming in. Clay Buchholz continues to lack the respect he deserves from oddsmakers today. Buchholz is healthy for the first time, and it’s showing as he’s gone 3-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.802 WHIP in five road starts. Joey Lucchesi is a nice young starter for the Padres, but he’s no match for Buchholz. He is 3-2 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in nine home starts this year. Lucchesi has lost both of his start against the Diamondbacks this season, going 0-2 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.258 WHIP. The Diamondbacks are 18-7 in their last 25 road games. Arizona is 5-0 in its last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Padres are 3-13 in their last 16 home games, and 8-27 in their last 35 games overall. San Diego is 0-9 in its last nine during Game 3 of a series. Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday. |
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07-28-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals -106 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
20* Cubs/Cards NL Central ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis -106 The Cardinals have the advantage on the mound today over the Cubs and thus we are getting them at a good value at basically even money this afternoon. Look for the Cards to take Game 2 of this series Saturday after winning Game 1 5-2 Friday. Miles Mikolas is 10-3 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 4-3 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in nine home starts. Mikolas is also 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two starts against the Cubs this season, giving up just 2 earned runs in 12 innings of work. Jose Quintana is having a solid season as well, but he hasn’t been nearly as effective at Mikolas. Quintana is 9-6 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.376 WHIP in 19 starts this year. He has given up 14 homers and 49 walks in 104 2/3 innings, while MIkolas has only allowed 8 homers and 22 walks in 124 1/3 innings. The Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Cardinals are 6-2 in Mikolas’ last eight starts when working on 5 days’ rest. The Cubs are 2-5 in their last seven meetings in St. Louis. Bet the Cardinals Saturday. |
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07-27-18 | Brewers v. Giants -118 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
20* Brewers/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -118 Getting ace Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants as this small of home favorites is a gift from oddsmakers tonight. Look for the Giants to bounce back from a Game 1 loss to the Brewers behind Bumgarner Friday. Bumgarner is 3-3 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in nine starts this season. He has been dynamite at home, going 3-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in five starts. The left-hander has also owned the Brewers, going 7-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 10 career starts against them. Chase Anderson is having an average season at 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 20 starts for the Brewers this season. Anderson certainly hasn’t enjoyed success against the Giants in the past, going 2-2 with a 5.68 ERA in five career starts against them. Anderson is 4-18 (-13.7 units) against the money line in road games after giving up 2 earned runs or fewer in his last two outings in his career. The Giants are 11-1 (+13.1 units) after having lost six or seven of their last eight games this season. The Brewers are 1-6 in their last seven road games. The Giants are 17-6 in the last 23 meetings, including 4-0 in Bumgarner’s last four starts against Milwaukee. Bet the Giants Friday. |
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07-26-18 | A's -130 v. Rangers | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A’s -130 The Oakland A’s have delivered comeback victories for me each of the last two days. They are as confident as they’ve been all season thanks to going 26-7 in their last 33 games overall. That includes five straight victories, and they have now scored a combined 34 runs in winning each of the first three games of this series with Texas. The A’s should stay hot at the plate tonight against Texas’ Bartolo Colon. The ageless wonder is starting to wear down. He is 5-8 with a 4.99 ERA in 18 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 5.84 ERA in eight home starts. He is also 0-3 with a 5.30 ERA in his last three starts overall. Trevor Cahill has performed very well for the A’s this season. He is 1-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 10 starts. Cahill has also owned the Rangers, going 10-4 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in 18 career starts against them. His teams are 14-4 in those games. The Rangers are 1-7 in their last eight games overall. Texas is 21-47 in its last 68 vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 0-8 in their last eight after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Texas is 13-33 in its last 46 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The A’s are 6-1 in Cahill’s last seven road starts at Texas. Bet the A’s Thursday. |
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07-25-18 | A's -115 v. Rangers | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A’s -115 The Oakland A’s are on a tear right now. They are 25-7 in their last 32 games overall and are threatening the Mariners for the final wild card spot. They feel invincible right now, especially after coming back from a 10-2 deficit to win yesterday in extra for their fourth straight victory. They have now scored 28 runs in two games against the Rangers in this series. Edwin Jackson is back from the grave and pitching remarkably well for the A’s thus far. He has gone 1-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in five starts this season. While I don’t expect he’ll be able to keep up that pace, he’s certainly the better starter in this matchup tonight. Martin Perez is one of the worst starters in baseball and has been for the last several years. He is 2-4 with an 8.05 ERA and 2.077 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 10.05 ERA and 2.303 WHIP in three home starts. He has no chance of slowing down this red-hot A’s lineup. Perez is 8-7 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.527 WHIP in 17 career starts against Oakland. The A’s are 23-8 in their last 31 road games. Oakland is 10-2 when playing against a bad team winning 38% to 46% of their games this season. The Rangers are 1-7 in their last eight home games. Texas is 1-5 in Perez’s last six starts. Bet the A’s Wednesday. |
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07-24-18 | A's -101 v. Rangers | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
20* AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland A’s -101 The Oakland A’s are on an absolute tear right now and flying under the radar. They have gone 24-7 in their last 31 games overall and are now in position to make a run at a playoff spot. They are only 2.5 games back in the wild card at 58-43 on the season. Frankie Montas has pitched well for the A’s this season, going 5-2 with a 3.35 ERA in eight starts. Montas has been at his best on the road, going 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four starts away from home. Mike Minor is 6-6 with a 4.89 ERA in 18 starts this season for the Rangers. He has struggled a lot of late, going 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in his last three starts. The A’s are 5-0 in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing record. Oakland is 38-16 in its last 54 vs. a team with a losing record. The A’s are 4-0 in Montas’ last four road starts. Oakland is 4-0 in Montas’ last four starts vs. a team with a. Losing record. The Rangers are 21-45 in their last 66 vs. a team with a winning record. Texas is 1-6 in its last seven home games. The Rangers are 0-5 in Minor’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the A’s Tuesday. |
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07-23-18 | Braves -115 v. Marlins | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -115 The Atlanta Braves find themselves in a battle with the Philadelphia Phillies for first place in the NL East. I like their focus the rest of the way as long as this race is so close. And I certainly like backing them as a small favorite over the lowly Marlins in Game 1 of this series Monday considering they have the advantage on the mound. Left-hander Sean Newcomb is having a fine season. He has gone 8-5 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in 19 starts this year. Newcomb has owned the Marlins, going 2-1 with a 2.74 ERA in four career starts against them. Jose Urena is 2-9 with a 4.39 ERA in 19 starts this season. He is still in search of his first home win, going 0-7 with a 4.26 ERA in 12 starts in Miami. Urena is 2-4 with a 5.05 ERA in nine career starts against the Braves as well. Urena is 2-13 (-14 units) against the money line in home games vs. division opponents over the last three seasons. The Braves are 4-0 in Newcomb’s last four starts vs. NL East opponents. The Marlins are 3-10 in Urena’s last 13 home starts. Miami is 0-4 in Urena’s last four home starts vs. Atlanta. Bet the Braves Monday. |
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07-22-18 | Dodgers -118 v. Brewers | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -118 The Dodgers have put themselves in position to win the NL West with a great run over the last few months. Now they’ve added Manny Machado and are really a scary team moving forward. The Brewers are starting to feel the pressure of trying to win the NL Central, going 1-7 in their last eight games overall. The Dodgers should be bigger favorites today considering their advantage on the mound. Alex Wood is 5-5 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.173 WHIP in 19 starts this season. Wood is also 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in one career start against Milwaukee. Brent Suter is 7-6 with a 4.52 ERA in 17 starts his season for the Brewers. He has been at his worst at home, going 4-3 with a 5.15 ERA in nine home starts. He is also 0-2 with a 5.62 ERA in his last three starts this season. The Dodgers are 38-18 in their last 56 games overall. Los Angeles is 15-3 in its last 18 games following a loss. The Dodgers are 29-14 in Wood’s last 43 starts, including 7-1 in his last eight starts vs. NL Central opponents. Bet the Dodgers Sunday. |
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07-21-18 | White Sox v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-105) I backed the Mariners with success on the Run Line yesterday and I’m back on them again Saturday. It’s a team I knew would be motivated coming out of the All-Star Break after entering the break with four straight losses. I look for them to win by two runs or more once again today against the lowly Chicago White Sox (33-63). The Mariners have a big advantage on the mound with Felix Hernandez. The right-hander is 4-4 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. Hernandez is 7-6 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in 20 career starts against Chicago. Dylan Covey has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season. He is 3-5 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.627 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 14.73 ERA and 2.545 WHIP in his last three. He’s also 1-4 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.793 WHIP in six road starts, and 0-0 with a 6.00 ERA in one career start against Seattle. Seattle is 21-6 as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. The White Sox are 1-12 in Covey’s last 13 road starts. Chicago is 14-44 in its last 58 vs. a team with a winning record. The Marines are 7-0 in Hernandez’s last seven starts vs. AL Central opponents. Seattle is 4-0 in Hernandez’s last four starts against the White Sox, and 6-1 in his last seven home starts against them. Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Saturday. |
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07-20-18 | White Sox v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 105 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+105) The Seattle Mariners come out of the All-Star Break highly motivated for a victory. They lost four straight on the road heading into the break to let the Astros distance themselves from them a bit in the AL West race. Now they get to host the lowly White Sox to get back on track in this series, and I expect them to win Game 1 by two runs or more. Wade LeBlanc has been great for the Mariners this season. He is 5-1 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in 14 starts, including a perfect 5-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.891 WHIP in eight home starts. LeBlanc has posted a 3.86 ERA in one career starts against Chicago. James Shields is 4-9 with a 4.38 ERA in 20 starts this season, including 1-4 with a 6.02 ERA in seven road starts. Shields has been awful in his last three starts against the Mariners, going 0-3 with an 11.04 ERA while allowing 18 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings. LeBlanc is 9-0 in home games vs. AL teams with an on base percentage of .330 or worse over the last three seasons. His teams are winning by 2.0 runs per game on average in this spot. LeBlanc is 10-0 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last three seasons, and his teams are winning by 2.2 runs per game. The Mariners are 8-0 in LeBlanc’s eight home starts this season and winning by 2.2 runs per game. Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Friday. |
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07-15-18 | Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110) The Los Angeles Dodgers have battled to get to within 0.5 games of the Arizona Diamondbacks for first place in the NL West. Look for them to win their final game before the All-Star Break over the Angels thanks to a huge advantage on the mound. Clayton Kershaw looks healthy and his numbers are showing it. He is now 3-4 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.647 WHIP in his last three starts. Kershaw is 6-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Angels. Deck McGuire is no more than a fill-in starter for the Angels. And his two starts this season have not gone well as he’s 0-1 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.580 WHIP while averaging just 3.2 innings per start. The Dodgers will get into the Angels’ bullpen early in this one. Kershaw is 35-5 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less base runners per game over the last three seasons. The Dodgers are winning by 2.4 runs per game on average in this spot. The Angels are 2-12 in their last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Dodgers are 14-3 in their last 17 games following a loss. Los Angeles is 9-1 in Kershaw’s last 10 interleague starts. Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Sunday. |
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07-14-18 | Reds v. Cardinals -139 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -139 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -139 The St. Louis Cardinals were embarrassed 9-1 at home by the Reds last night. They will come back highly motivated for a win in Game 2 this afternoon, and they should get it due to their advantage on the mound. Jack Flaherty is having an outstanding rookie season. He has gone 3-4 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 13 starts this year with 82 K’s in 70 innings. Luis Castillo is 5-8 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in 19 starts for the Reds, including 2-5 with a 6.71 ERA and 1.567 WHIP in 11 road starts. Castillo has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-3 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three career starts against them. The Reds are 1-4 in Castillo’s last five road starts, and 1-6 in his last seven Saturday starts. St. Louis is 4-1 in its last five games following a loss. The Cardinals are 17-5 in the last 22 meetings, and 35-17 in the last 52 meetings in St. Louis. Bet the Cardinals Saturday. |
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07-13-18 | Reds v. Cardinals -148 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -148 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -148 The St. Louis Cardinals need this series against the Reds before the All-Star Break. They need to try and keep pace with the Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central and cannot afford a series loss here. It starts with Game 1 of this series against the lowly Cincinnati Reds tonight. The Cardinals have the clear advantage on the mound, which is why I’m willing to lay this kind of juice. Carlos Martinez is 6-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.38 ERA in eight home starts. Martinez is also 5-3 with a 3.78 ERA in 11 career starts against Cincinnati. Matt Harvey is 4-5 with a 4.37 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 1-4 with a 5.21 ERA in nine road starts. Have gave up 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings of a 6-7 loss to the Cardinals in his only start against them this season on June 8th. The Reds are 1-4 in Harvey’s last five road starts. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss. St. Louis is 7-3 in Martinez’s last 10 home starts. The Cardinals are 34-16 in Martinez’s last 50 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds are 4-17 in the last 21 meetings. St. Louis is 8-3 in Martinez’s last 11 starts vs. Cincinnati. Bet the Cardinals Friday. |
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07-12-18 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Padres | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-111) The Los Angeles Dodgers should have no problem beating the San Diego Padres by two runs or more tonight. The Dodgers have been playing well for weeks now and are just 0.5 games behind the Diamondbacks for first place in the NL West. They’re looking to close strong before the All-Star Break. Los Angeles starter Ross Stripling has earned his way onto the All-Star team. He is 7-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in 13 starts this season with 86 K’s in 74 innings. Stripling has been dominant in his two starts against San Diego, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA while pitching 10 2/3 innings with 15 K’s without allowing an earned run. Tyson Ross is really faltering of late. He has gone 0-2 with a 19.29 ERA in his last two starts, giving up 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 7 innings. Ross was awful in his last start against the Dodgers giving up 8 runs and 10 base runners in 5 1/3 innings of a 15-0 loss. San Diego is 6-20 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season. It is losing by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot. The Dodgers are 12-2 in their last 14 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 8-2 in Stripling’s last 10 starts overall. The Padres are 1-7 in Ross’ last eight starts against the Dodgers, including 0-4 in his last four home starts against them. Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday. |
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07-11-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -122 | 2-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado Rockies -122 The Colorado Rockies need to start piling up wins if they want to hang with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers in the NL West race. They lost Game 1 of this series to the Diamondbacks, but I expect them to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 at home tonight. Shelby Miller has been one of the worst starters in baseball since joining the Diamondbacks. He is off to a shaky start since returning from injury this season, going 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in three starts. Those three have come against the Padres, Giants and Marlins, three of the worst lineups in the National League. German Marquez hasn’t been great at 7-8 with a 5.01 ERA in 18 starts. But he has pitched well of late, going 2-1 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in his last three starts. He is clearly the better starter in this matchup. Miller is 2-4 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.580 WHIP in nine career starts against Colorado. He has allowed 16 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Rockies. The Diamondbacks are 2-10 in Miller’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Rockies Wednesday. |
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07-11-18 | Reds v. Indians -1.5 | 4-19 | Win | 104 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+104) I had the Indians on the Run Line yesterday in one of the sickest beats I’ve taken all season. They were up 4-0 going into the 9th and lost 7-4. Now the Indians have lost four straight, and they are looking to avoid the sweep at the hands of in-state rival Cincinnati. Look for them to be playing with an extra chip on their shoulder tonight. Carlos Carrasco has some of the best stuff in baseball. He has gone 9-5 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in 16 starts this season. The Indians are 4-0 in Carrasco’s four career starts against the Reds, having never lost, and winning three of them by 2 runs or more. Tyler Mahle has been respectable for the Reds this season at 7-6 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 18 starts. But he’ll be up against it here against a motivated Indians lineup that will continue to pour it on after letting off the gas yesterday after taking a quick 4-0 lead. The Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 40-12 in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Cleveland is 5-0 in its last five after losing the first two games of a series. The Indians are 15-3 off three or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. Cleveland is 9-1 in Carrasco’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Indians on the Run Line Wednesday. |
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07-11-18 | Rangers v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-165) The Boston Red Sox have such a big advantage on the mound tonight that it’s worth laying the juice with them on the Run Line. They should have no problem winning by two runs or more. The Red Sox are 8-0 in their last eight games overall with seven of those wins coming by 3 runs or more. Ace Chris Sale gets the ball Wednesday. He is 9-4 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.893 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 0.45 ERA and 0.650 WHIP in his last three starts. Sale is 6-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 0.873 WHIP in nine career starts against Texas. Better yet, Sale is 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his last three starts against the Rangers, allowing just 4 earned runs in 29 1/3 innings. The 45-year-old Bartolo Colon is overmatched here. He is 5-6 with a 4.80 ERA in 16 starts this season. Colon is 9-12 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in 32 career starts against Boston. He allowed 4 homers in 7 innings in his last start against the Red Sox on May 4th of this season, a 1-5 loss. The Rangers are 20-41 in their last 61 vs. a team with a winning record. The Red Sox are 51-18 in their last 69 games vs. a right-handed starter. Boston is 10-1 in Sale’s last 11 starts during Game 3 of a series. The Red Sox are 5-0 in their last five meetings with the Rangers. Boston is 6-0 in its last six home meetings with Texas. Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday. |
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07-10-18 | Reds v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
25* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-115) The Cleveland Indians will be highly motivated for a victory Tuesday after losing three straight games coming in, including their 6-0 shutout loss to the Reds yesterday. But due to the massive advantage the Indians have on the mound tonight, they should have no problem getting revenge and beating the Reds by two runs or more to cover the Run Line. Trevor Bauer has been outstanding this season. He has gone 8-6 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.088 WHIP in 18 starts, 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in eight home starts, and 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in his last three outings. He has 156 K’s in 121 1/3 innings this season. Bauer has allowed just 3 earned runs in 13 innings in his two career home starts against the Reds for a 2.08 ERA. Sal Romano has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season for the Reds. He is 5-8 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in 18 starts, 1-4 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in seven road starts, and 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his last three outings. Cleveland is 15-2 off three or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win by 3.5 runs per game on average in this spot. The Reds are 16-43 in their last 59 interleague road games. The Indians are 6-1 in Bauer’s last seven home starts. Cleveland is 40-11 in its last 51 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Indians on the Run Line Tuesday. |
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07-09-18 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Padres | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-150) The Los Angeles Dodgers should make easy work of the San Diego Padres tonight and win this game by two runs or more. They are focused as they approach the All-Star Break to try and grab first place in the NL West, while the Padres are just going through the motions right now. The Dodgers have a massive advantage on the mound tonight behind Clayton Kershaw, who is 2-4 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Kershaw is 17-6 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.992 WHIP in 32 career starts against San Diego. Kershaw has allowed one earned run or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts against the Padres, which is absolutely remarkable. Luis Perdomo is 1-2 with a 6.86 ERA and 2.186 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-2 with a 15.43 ERA and 3.286 HWIP in two home starts. Perdomo is also 1-4 with an 8.31 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in five career starts against the Dodgers. He gave up 7 earned runs and 12 base runners in 3 innings in his only start against the Dodgers this season back on April 18th. Kershaw is 34-5 against teams that strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last two seasons. The Dodgers are winning by 2.3 runs per game in this spot. San Diego is 5-18 as a home dog of +100 or more this season, losing by 3.3 runs per game on average. Los Angeles is 46-11 in Kershaw’s last 57 starts vs. NL West opponents, including 5-0 in his last five starts in San Diego. Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday. |
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07-09-18 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-115) The Houston Astros have won six straight to improve to 61-31 on the season and get a little breathing room on the Seattle Mariners atop the AL West standings. Look for them to win their seventh straight game tonight, and to do so by two runs or more. Gerrit Cole is having the best season of his career. He has gone 9-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in 18 starts this season with 158 K’s in 116 2/3 innings. The Astros are 15-3 in those starts. Cole is also 2-1 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in four career starts against Oakland. The Astros are 3-0 in Cole’s three starts against the A’s this season alone, winning by 4, 3 and 8 runs. Frankie Montas is 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in seven starts for the A’s this season, but 0-1 with a 9.34 ERA in his last two starts, giving up 9 earned runs and 20 base runners in 8 2/3 innings to the Tigers and Indians. Montas’ worst start this season came against the Astros on June 14th when he allowed 7 runs and 15 base runners in 5 1/3 innings of a 3-7 loss. Cole is 20-3 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons. His teams are winning by 3.2 runs per game on average in this spot. Roll with the Astros on the Run Line Monday. |
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07-09-18 | Rangers v. Red Sox -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-101) The Boston Red Sox are 6-0 in their last six games overall to improve to 62-29 on the season. They should have no problem beating the Rangers to two runs or more today. They have scored a combined 46 runs in their last five games for an average of 9.2 runs per game. They should stay hot at the plate tonight against Texas’ Mike Minor. The left-hander has been awful on the road this season, going 2-2 with a 6.82 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in six starts away from home. It won’t get any easier for Minor at Fenway Park tonight. Eduardo Rodriquez has been a huge asset to Boston’s rotation this season. The left-hander has gone 10-3 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.259 WHIP in 17 starts with 100K’s in 93 2/3 innings. He is 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA and 0.805 WHIP in two career starts against Texas. Rodriquez is 17-2 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons. The Red Sox are winning by 2.4 runs per game on average in this spot. Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Monday. |
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07-08-18 | Cardinals v. Giants -119 | 8-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
15* Cards/Giants NL No-Brainer on San Francisco -119 Rarely will you get the opportunity to back Madison Bumgarner as this small of a home favorite for the Giants. We’ll take advantage Sunday and back the Giants to even this series with the Cardinals with a victory in Game 4 today. Bumgarner has shown no signs of rust since returning from a freak injury that sidelined him for a couple months to start the season. The left-hander is 1-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in six starts this year, including 1-1 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.810 WHIP in three home starts. Jack Flaherty is having a solid season for the Cardinals. However, he’s up against a Giants team that tagged him for 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his only career start against them last year. And Flaherty has struggled in his last two starts coming in, giving up 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings in losses to Arizona and Cleveland. The Giants are 10-1 in their last 11 Sunday games. San Francisco is 12-3 in its last 15 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Roll with the Giants Sunday. |
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07-08-18 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 0 m | Show | |
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+103) The players’ only meeting has really made a big difference for the Nationals. They are 3-0 since, and their offense has exploded by 35 combined runs in the three wins, including 18 yesterday. They should beat the Marlins by two runs or more once again Sunday. Tanner Roark is 3-9 with a 4.44 ERA in 17 starts this season. I expect him to have a great start here against the Marlins. He has given up just 3 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts against Miami for a 2.08 ERA. Trevor Richards has been awful this season. He is 2-5 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 11 starts, and 1-3 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in six road starts. He is in line to get rocked by this hot Nats’ lineup today. The Marlins are 20-42 in their last 62 road games. Miami is 1-7 in its last eight Sunday games. The Marlins are 3-14 in their last 17 during Game 4 of a series. The Nationals are 5-1 in Roark’s last six home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings, including 4-1 in Roark’s last five starts against Miami. Take the Nationals Sunday. |
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07-08-18 | A's v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 12 m | Show |
20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+110) The Cleveland Indians had won five straight while scoring at least 6 runs in four of those wins prior to a 3-6 upset loss to the Indians yesterday. They’ll bounce back with a victory Sunday by two runs or more. Shane Bieber has had an excellent start to his rookie season. He is 4-0 with a 2.97 ERA in five starts, 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA in two home starts, and 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts overall. Brett Anderson is one of the worst starters in baseball. It’s amazing he has even made the rotation for the A’s. Anderson is 0-2 with a 7.63 ERA and 2.022 WHIP in four starts this season. Cleveland is 19-3 in home games vs. teams who average 0.35 or fewer stolen bases per game over the last three seasons. It is winning by 3.1 runs per game in this spot. The Indians are 5-0 in Bieber’s last five starts. Bet the Indians on the Run Line Sunday. |
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07-07-18 | White Sox v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-155) The Houston Astros will have no problem winning by two runs or more Saturday against the Chicago White Sox. They have a big advantage on the mound and at the plate in this one. Charlie Morton is 10-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 17 starts this season. He is also 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 10 home starts, and 2-1 with a 0.92 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in his last three starts. Morton is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in one career start against Chicago. James Shields id 3-8 with a 4.06 ERA in 18 starts for the White Sox this season, including 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA in six road starts. Shields faced the Astros on April 20th this season, giving up 7 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 1/3 innings of a 10-0 loss. Houston is 28-5 vs. teams who are outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game this season. It is winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot. Shields is 9-38 as a dog of +150 or more in his career. His teams are losing by 2.7 runs per game on average. Bet the Astros on the Run Line Saturday. |
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07-06-18 | Cardinals v. Giants -115 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
15* Cards/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -115 The San Francisco Giants will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost four straight coming in, including last night’s embarrassing 2-11 loss to the Cardinals. Look for them to respond in a big way with a victory in Game 2 Friday. Dereck Rodriquez has been impressive this season for the Giants. He is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA in six starts, 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three home starts, and 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts overall. John Gant is overmatched in this one. He is 1-3 with a 4.61 ERA in five starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.07 ERA in his lone road start. The Giants are 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter. San Francisco is 4-0 in Rodriquez’s last four starts. The Cardinals are 1-6 in Gant’s last seven starts. Take the Giants Friday. |
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07-06-18 | Dodgers -120 v. Angels | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
15* Dodgers/Angels Interleague No-Brainer on Los Angeles Dodgers -120 The Los Angeles Dodgers are now in a first place tie with the Arizona Diamondbacks atop the NL West. They looked dead in the water about a month ago, but have ridden a big month of June and have a ton of momentum right now. Look for them to dispose of the Angels in Game 1 of this series tonight. I like the fact that the Dodgers had yesterday off, while the Angels played in Seattle, so they are the fresher team. The Dodgers also have the advantage on the mound with Kenta Maeda, who is 5-5 with a 3.40 ERA in 14 starts this season. Made pitched 7 shutout innings in a 4-0 victory in his last start against the Angels last season. The Angels will go with Felix Pena, who is 1-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.396 WHIP in three starts this season. But he’s only averaging 4.8 innings per start and has faced an easy schedule of opposing teams in his limited action. He will get rocked by the Dodgers tonight. The Dodgers have scored a combined 37 runs in winning each of their last four games. The Angels are just 3-9 in their last 12 games overall. The Angels are 3-12 in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Dodgers are 5-1 in Maeda’s last six interleague starts. The Dodgers are 10-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Dodgers are 11-1 in their last 12 during Game 1 of a series. Roll with the Dodgers Friday. |
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07-06-18 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+100) The players’ only meeting on Wednesday clearly helped this team. They could have given up down 9-0 yesterday to the Marlins, but fought back with 14 unanswered runs and a 14-12 victory. I think this will be a great team to back in the immediate future, and I’ll continue to do so tonight. The Nationals have a big advantage on the mound behind Gio Gonzalez. The left-hander is 6-5 with a 3.77 ERA in 17 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 3.02 ERA in eight home starts. Gonzalez owns the Marlins, going 10-3 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.046 WHIP in 16 career starts against them. Dan Straily is 3-4 with a 4.70 ERA in 12 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 6.14 ERA in his last three. Straily has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-1 with a 4.03 ERA in five career starts against them. Gonzalez is 41-15 in home games vs. poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR’s/game in his career. His teams are winning by 1.8 runs per game on average. Miami is 3-16 in its last 19 road games after scoring 8 runs or more. It is losing by 2.9 runs per game in this spot. The Marlins are 1-6 in Straily’s last seven starts. Washington is 43-16 in its last 59 home meetings with Miami, including 6-1 in Gonzalez’s last seven home starts against them. Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Friday. |
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07-05-18 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 12-14 | Win | 110 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
20* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+110) The Washington Nationals just had a players’ only meeting yesterday after getting swept by the Red Sox to fall to 42-43 on the season. They have now lost eight of their last nine games overall. I expect them to respond in a big way in Game 1 of this series with the Miami Marlins Thursday. Jeremy Hellickson has been awesome for the Nationals this season. He has gone 2-1 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 10 starts, including 0-0 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in three home starts. Hellickson is also 4-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Marlins. Pablo Lopez will be making just the second start of his career for the Marlins. He pitched well in his major league debut, giving up two runs in six innings against the Mets on Saturday. But the Nationals are a different animal, and he will have his work cut out for him tonight. The Nationals are 5-2 in Hellickson’s last seven starts. The Marlins are 5-22 in their last 27 Thursday games. Washington is 42-16 in its last 58 home meetings with Miami. The Nationals are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings overall. Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Thursday. |
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07-04-18 | Astros -155 v. Rangers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
20* AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Astros -155 The Houston Astros should take care of business tonight against the Texas Rangers. The Astros are now 31-14 on the road this season and scoring 5.7 runs per game away from home. They are worth laying the heavier juice here today. Gerrit Cole is 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 17 starts this season with 151 K’s in 111 2/3 innings. Cole is 4-0 against the money line in four career starts against Texas. He has given up just 4 earned runs in 27 innings with 42 K’s for a 1.33 ERA. Mike Minor is 6-4 with a 4.64 ERA in 15 starts for Texas this season. Minor has never beaten the Astros, going 0-2 with a 5.35 ERA in six career starts against them. Houston is 13-0 in road games vs. teams who are outscored by 0.5 or more runs per game this season. The Astros are 14-3 in Cole’s 17 starts this season. The Rangers are 0-5 in their last five vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Astros are 7-0 in the last seven meetings. Bet the Astros Wednesday. |
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07-03-18 | Astros -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-119) After losing three straight to the Rays over the weekend, the Astros now have just a half-game lead on the Seattle Mariners in the AL West. They’ll be highly motivated for a victory to get back on track in Game 1 of this series against the Texas Rangers Tuesday. Dallas Keuchel hasn’t been at his best this season, but he’s still been solid with a 4.22 ERA in 17 starts, a 3.54 ERA in nine road starts, and a 3.12 ERA in his last three. Keuchel has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last eight starts against the Rangers. Austin Bibens-Dirkxx is 1-1 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in four starts this season. But he has faced some suspect lineups in the Royals (twice), Padres and Mariners. This is by far his stiffest test of the season tonight against an Astros team that is 30-14 on the road and scoring 5.7 runs per game away from home. Houston is 12-0 in road games vs. teams who are outscored by their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game this season. It is winning these games by 5.2 runs per game on average. The Astros are 18-3 on the road against division opponents this season, winning by 3.5 runs per game. Bet the Astros on the Run Line. |
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07-02-18 | Giants -104 v. Rockies | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco Giants -104 The San Francisco Giants just swept the Arizona Diamondbacks on the road. They are now making their move up the NL West standings, and they have a healthy, effective Madison Bumgarner back at the top of the rotation. Bumgarner gets the ball against the Rockies tonight. He has gone 1-2 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in five starts this season. He has been brilliant in his last two starts, pitching 15 shutout innings while allowing only 9 base runners and striking out 16 against the Rockies and Padres. Bumgarner is 12-7 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in 27 career starts against Colorado. Kyle Freeland has been the best starter for Colorado this season, going 7-6 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 16 starts. But he’s really no match for Bumgarner in this one. I just think with all the momentum the Giants have and their ace on the mound they are a steal at this price of nearly even money. The Giants are 10-2 in their last 12 games overall. San Francisco is 4-0 in its last four road games. The Rockies are 3-10 in their last 13 vs. NL West opponents. Colorado is 4-10 in its last 14 home games. The Rockies are 1-5 in Freeland’s last six starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 6-2 in Bumgarner’s last eight starts vs. Colorado. Bet the Giants Monday. |
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07-01-18 | Indians -122 v. A's | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -122 The Cleveland Indians will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday. They have lost each of the first two games of this series to the A’s and want to avoid a sweep with a Game 3 win this afternoon. The Indians have the clear advantage on the mound behind the underrated Mike Clevinger. All he’s done is dominate the past two seasons for the Indians. Clevinger is 6-3 with a 3.03 ERA in 16 starts this season, 3-2 with a 2.39 ERA in eight road starts, and 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts overall. Frankie Montas pitched well in his first few starts for the A’s. However, reality has set in of late, and Months is 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA and 2.267 WHIP in his last three starts. He has allowed 12 earned runs and a whopping 34 base runners over 15 innings in this stretch. Cleveland is 53-17 after having lost four or five of its last six games over the past three seasons. The Indians are 35-17 in their last 52 during Game 3 of a series. Cleveland is 5-1 in Clevinger’s last six starts during Game 3 of a series. Bet the Indians Sunday. |
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06-30-18 | Astros -1.5 v. Rays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-110) The Houston Astros will bounce back from a rare loss to the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday. The Astros are 18-4 in their last 22 games overall, including a perfect 4-0 in their last four games following a loss during this stretch. Ace Justin Verlander gets the ball for the Astros today. Verlander is 9-3 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.809 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 7-1 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in eight road starts. The right-hander is also 8-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 17 career starts against Tampa Bay. Ryne Stanek is being used as a starter despite the fact that he’s a reliever for the Rays. I just don’t trust this strategy that Tampa Bay is employing. The Astros can’t be held down for long, and after being limited offensively the past two days, look for them to bust out in a big way today. Houston is 30-12 on the road this season and scoring 5.9 runs per game. The Astros are 17-3 on the road this season after two straight games allowing 3 or fewer runs. Houston is 6-0 in its last six during Game 3 of a series. The Astros are 15-3 in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Rays are 1-4 in Stanek’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Astros on the Run Line Saturday. |
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06-29-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
20* Rockies/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5 The Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers are both coming off big run totals last night. The Rockies and Giants combined for 17 runs, while the Dodgers and Cubs combined for 16. In fact, the OVER is 5-1 in Dodgers last six games as they have combined for 11 or more runs with their opponents five times. Tyler Anderson is 4-3 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in 16 starts this season for the Rockies. Anderson certainly doesn’t enjoy facing the Dodgers, going 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.594 WHIP in eight career starts against them. He has allowed 9 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Los Angeles. Rich Hill has battled injury and poor performance once again this season. He is 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.514 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-2 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.742 WHIP in four home starts. Hill has never beaten the Rockies, going 0-3 with a 7.52 ERA and 1.721 WHIP in four career starts against them. Hill is a perfect 7-0 OVER vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse this season. Colorado is 7-0 OVER in road games after having lost four of their last five games this season. The OVER is 5-0 in Anderson’s last five road starts. The OVER is 5-0 in Anderson’s last five road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 4-0 in Hill’s last four home starts. The OVER is 6-0 in Hill’s last six starts vs. NL West opponents. These six trends combine for a perfect 36-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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06-28-18 | Nationals v. Phillies -122 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Phillies -122 The Philadelphia Phillies should be much bigger favorites over the Washington Nationals today. They have a big advantage on the mound in this one. Ace Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Phillies. He has gone 9-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including a perfect 6-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.910 WHIP in seven home starts. Nola has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last three starts against Washington. Tanner Roark is 3-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 15 starts this season. He has really struggled of late, going 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA and 2.024 WHIP in his last three starts. Roark is also 1-3 with a 7.62 ERA in his last five starts against Philadelphia, allowing 22 earned runs in 26 innings. The Nationals are 0-5 in their last five road games. The Phillies are 7-0 in Nola’s seven home starts this season. Washington is 3-8 in Roark’s last 11 road starts. Bet the Phillies Thursday. |
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06-27-18 | Pirates +110 v. Mets | 5-3 | Win | 110 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +110 The Mets should not be favored over the Pirates today. They are 1-7 in their last eight games overall with their lone win coming last night in extra innings. I expect their celebration to be short-lived tonight. Pittsburgh has the clear advantage on the mound behind Ivan Nova, who is 4-5 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.229 WHIP in 14 starts this season. Nova has been lights out of late, going 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.864 WHIP in his last three starts, which have come against Arizona, Cincinnati and the Cubs. Nova has never lost to the Mets, going 1-0 (3-0 money line) with a 3.11 ERA in three career starts against them. Zack Wheeler is just 2-6 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.371 WHIP in 14 starts for the Mets this season. He has yet to win at home, going 0-5 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.452 WHIP in seven starts at Citi Field. Wheeler is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in one career start against Pittsburgh. The Mets are 0-7 in Wheeler’s last seven home starts. New York is 1-9 in Wheeler’s last 10 starts overall. The Mets are 15-36 in their last 51 games. The Pirates are 6-0 in their last six Wednesday games. Take the Pirates Wednesday. |
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06-27-18 | Mariners -109 v. Orioles | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -109 The Seattle Mariners need to be bigger favorites against the Baltimore Orioles today. The Mariners are 49-31 on the season, while the Orioles are 23-55. Not only that, the Mariners have a huge advantage on the mound tonight. Wade LeBlanc still hasn’t suffered a loss in 10 starts this season, going 3-0 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.158 WHIP. LeBlanc has never lost to the Orioles, going 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in two career starts against them. Alex Cobb has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season. He is 2-9 with a 6.56 ERA and 1.628 WHIP in 13 starts. Cobb is also 2-4 with a 6.81 ERA and 1.626 WHIP in seven career starts against the Mariners. He has allowed 16 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Seattle. Cobb is 0-8 (-8.8 units) vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse this season. Baltimore is 0-11 vs. AL West opponents this season. The Mariners are 7-0 in LeBlanc’s last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Orioles are 0-4 in Cobb’s last four home starts. These four trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing Seattle tonight. Bet the the Mariners Wednesday. |
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06-27-18 | Reds v. Braves -138 | 6-5 | Loss | -138 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
15* Reds/Braves NL Early ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -138 The Atlanta Braves will bounce back from an upset loss to the Cincinnati Reds yesterday. The Braves have a big advantage on the mound in this one, and the Reds are now getting too much respect from the books after winning eight of their last nine coming in. Sean Newcomb has been an ace for the Braves this season. He has gone 8-2 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in 15 starts. Newcomb has never lost to the Reds, going 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two career starts against them, and the Braves went 2-0 in those games. Luis Castillo has been a big disappointment for the Reds this season. He is 5-8 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.398 WHIP in 16 starts, including 2-5 with a 6.50 ERA and 1.511 WHIP in nine road starts. Castillo is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in one career start against Atlanta. The Reds are 15-36 in their last 51 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Cincinnati is 1-4 in Castillo’s last five starts. Atlanta is 11-3 in its last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Braves are 25-9 in their last 34 games following a loss. Atlanta is 8-3 in Newcomb’s last 11 starts. Bet the Braves Wednesday. |
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06-26-18 | Reds v. Braves -154 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -154 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -154 The Reds are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their recent shocking 7-game winning streak, which included a 4-game sweep of the Cubs for the first time since 1983. They were clearly going to have a letdown in this series with the Braves, and they lost Game 1 yesterday. I look for the Braves to take Game 2 as well thanks to their huge advantage on the mound. Anibal Sanchez has stepped into the rotation and done a tremendous job thus far. Sanchez is 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in three home starts. Sanchez is also 2-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in four career starts against Cincinnati. Matt Harvey got traded to the Reds this season and hasn’t been on his game. Harvey is 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA in 12 starts this season, including 0-4 with a 6.29 ERA in seven road starts. Harvey is also 3-7 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.349 WHIP in 12 career starts against Atlanta. He gave up 6 runs in 6 innings of a 4-12 loss at Atlanta in his only start against them this season. Cincinnati is 3-15 off a game where its bullpen blew a save over the last two seasons. The Reds are 50-109 in their last 159 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Braves are 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Atlanta is 5-1 in Sanchez’s last six starts. Bet the Braves Tuesday. |
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06-25-18 | Reds v. Braves -147 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -147 The Atlanta Braves will put a halt to the Reds’ surprising 7-game winning streak tonight. The Reds are in a massive letdown spot here after sweeping the Cubs in a four-game series for the first time since 1983 over the weekend. Mike Foltynewicz will be excited to be back on the mound after a brief stint on the 10-day disabled list. He is having a monster season, going 5-4 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.139 WHIP with 94 K’s in 79 innings. Folty is 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in four career starts against Cincinnati. Tyler Mahle is having a decent season for the Reds. He is 6-6 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in 15 starts this year. But he’s no match for Foltynewicz, who has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 14 starts this season, including one or fewer in six of his last seven. Atlanta is 9-1 after having lost three of its last four games this season. The Braves are 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Braves Monday. |
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06-24-18 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates +105 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
20* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +105 The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost four straight, including the first three games of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks. They will be highly motivated for a win Sunday to avoid the sweep and salvage the series with a victory in Game 4 this afternoon. Trevor Williams has been solid all season for the Pirates. He is 6-4 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in 15 starts, including 4-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in eight home starts. Williams has fared very well in three career starts against Arizona, going 1-1 wth a 3.21 ERA and 1.214 WHIP. Clay Buchholz is getting too much respect from oddsmakers for what he’s done in limited action this season. Most of his six starts have come against terrible lineups. Buchholz is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona. He gave up 6 runs, 2 earned, and 9 base runners in 4 innings against the Pirates on June 12th this season. The Pirates are 8-2 in Williams’ last 10 starts when working on 5 days’ rest. Buchholz is 5-15 (-12.3 units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. Bet the Pirates Sunday. |
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06-23-18 | Orioles v. Braves -106 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -106 The Atlanta Braves are showing great value as a small home favorite over the lowly Baltimore Orioles today. Julio Teheran should be able to take down Dylan Bundy in this matchup. The Orioles are 13-42 in their last 55 road games. Baltimore is 0-5 in Bundy’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 11-40 in their last 51 vs. a team with a winning record. The Braves are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Atlanta is 24-8 in its last 32 games following a loss. The Braves are 7-1 in Teheran’s last eight home starts. Bet the Braves Saturday. |
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06-22-18 | Padres v. Giants -132 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -132 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco Giants -132 We are getting the San Francisco Giants at a nice value as small home favorites against the lowly San Diego Padres tonight. They have the advantage on the mound in this one and should win with ease. Chris Stratton is 8-4 with a 4.22 ERA in 15 starts this season. He has given up just 3 earned runs in 13 innings over last last two starts. Stratton is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in two career starts against San Diego, firing 13 2/3 shutout innings. Clayton Richard is 6-6 with a 4.31 ERA in 15 starts for the Padres, including 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA in seven road starts. Richard is 6-8 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 19 career starts against San Francisco. In his last last five starts against the Giants, Richard is 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA, giving up 20 earned runs in 26 innings. Stratton is 7-0 (+8.4 units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game this season. The Giants are 11-1 in Stratton’s last 12 home starts. San Francisco is 10-2 in its last 12 home games. The Padres are 0-5 in their last five games overall. Bet the Giants Friday. |
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06-21-18 | Red Sox -119 v. Twins | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -119 The Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated for a victory here Thursday afternoon. They have lost the first two games of this series to the Twins and certainly want to avoid getting swept today. Rick Porcello is having another fine season at 8-3 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 15 starts. Porcello is 10-10 with a 3.90 ERA in 29 career starts against the Twins. Kyle Gibson has been much better on the road than he’s been at home this season. Gibson has yet to win at home, going 0-3 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in seven starts. He has given up 5 runs in two of his last three starts against the Red Sox. Boston is 14-4 as a road favorite of -100 to -150 this season. The Red Sox are 12-2 in their last 14 games after losing the first two games of a series. Boston is 41-16 in its last 57 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Twins are 1-4 in Gibson’s last five home starts. Bet the Red Sox Thursday. |
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06-20-18 | Mets v. Rockies -102 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
20* Mets/Rockies MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado -102 The Colorado Rockies are showing great value at basically even money at home tonight against the New York Mets. It’s rare that you get to back them at home at this price, especially against a team as poor as the 31-39 Mets. Chad Bettis is 5-1 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 14 starts this season. Bettis has been dominant in three career starts against the Mets, giving up just 5 earned runs in 18 innings for a 2.50 ERA. Seth Lugo is getting too much respect from oddsmakers for what he has done in limited starts this season. He has only made three starts while compiling a 3.00 ERA. But this is a different animal in Colorado at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The Mets are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter. New York is 7-20 in its last 27 games overall. The Mets are 1-5 in Lugo’s last six road starts. The Rockies are 14-3 in Bettis’ last 17 starts vs. NL East opponents. New York is 1-5 in the last six meetings. Bet the Rockies Wednesday. |
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06-20-18 | Tigers +122 v. Reds | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
15* Tigers/Reds MLB Early ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Tigers +122 The Detroit Tigers have been one of the most profitable teams in baseball because little was expected of them coming into the season. But here they are at 36-38 and in the thick of the AL Central race. I’ll gladly fade the Reds, who are just 27-45 on the season and should not be favored here. Michael Fulmer has been a steady performer in Detroit’s rotation over the past few seasons. He is 3-5 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 14 starts this season, but 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA in his last two, allowing just 2 earned runs in 14 innings. The Tigers are 5-1 in their last six games overall. Detroit is 10-0 in its last 10 Wednesday games. The Reds are 12-29 in their last 41 home games. Cincinnati is 22-49 in its last 71 interleague games. Take the Tigers Wednesday. |