15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Boston College +17

Boston College is loaded with 17 returning starters as new head coach Bill O'Brien steps into a great situation.  O'Brien was born in Boston and meant to be a college head coach.  The key is returning QB Thomas Castellanos, who threw for 2,248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year while also rushing for 1,113 yards and 13 scores.

Boston College nearly upset Florida State in a 31-29 loss as 25-point underdogs last season.  The Eagles outgained the Seminoles 457 to 351, or by 106 total yards and should have won outright.  Castellanos went off for 305 passing yards and 95 rushing yards in the loss.

Castellanos and company got their revenge in a 28-13 road win at Florida State as 16.5-point underdogs.  There was nothing fluky at all about this win as they dominated the point of attack on both offensive and defensive lines.  More impressive yet was the Eagles avoiding the letdown just five days later, beating Duquesne 56-0 as 35.5-point favorites.

Now the Eagles will be ready to prove themselves against a SEC opponent in Missouri.  I think the Tigers are grossly overvalued after blowout wins and covers over a pair of cupcakes in Murray State 51-0 as 50.5-point favorites and Buffalo 38-0 as 32-point favorites.  Their luck runs out in the covering department this week as they take a big step up in class against Boston College.  The Tigers have their SEC opener on deck next week and could be looking ahead as well.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games dating back to last season.  They are starting to get too much respect from the books.  Boston College is the team flying under the radar right now and will be looking to put their name on the map this week.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +20.5

Oklahoma State is coming off the most misleading win of Week 2 after having another misleading win in Week 1.  These two results have the Cowboys way overvalued, and they are laying way too many points on the road against Tulsa this week as a result.

Oklahoma State is getting a lot of hype heading into the season after finishing 10-4 last season and making it to the Big 12 title game.  But it was all smoke and mirrors for the most part as the Cowboys were actually outgained on the season with a defense that gave up 442 yards per game.  They were outgained by 17 yards per game in Big 12 play alone.

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys with the lofty preseason expectations that come with returning 19 starters from that team.  That's especially the case after a misleading 44-20 win over South Dakota State as a 13-point favorite in the opener, which is a SDSU team ranked No. 1 in the FCS.  

The Cowboys only outgained the Jackrabbits 394 to 388, or by 6 total yards.  The Jackrabbits actually outgained them 6.0 to 5.5 yards per play as well.  They held the Cowboys to 3.8 yards per carry on the ground and held 1st-team All-American RB Ollie Gordon to 126 yards on 28 carries.  This game was much closer than the 44-20 final.

Then last week, Oklahoma State beat Arkansas 39-31 (OT) at home despite getting outgained 648 to 385 by the Razorbacks, or by 263 total yards.  No question Arkansas deserved to win that game but was -2 in turnovers and missed a couple field goals.

After using a lot of energy in that OT win, this is now a flat spot for the Cowboys going on the road to face Tulsa.  It is also a sandwich spot with their huge Big 12 opener on deck against Utah next week, which could decide which of those two teams wins the conference.  The Cowboys just want to get out of here with a win and they aren't concerned about margin at all.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Tulsa as they were Arkansas, or as they will be against Utah.

It was a rebuilding season in Year 1 last season for head coach Kevin Wilson.  He only had 9 starters back and Tulsa went just 4-8.  But now he has a lot of his players in place and has recruited some very good talent here.  I like what I've seen from the Golden Hurricane thus far in Year 2.

It started with a 62-28 win over Northwestern State in the opener.  And last week the Golden Hurricane gave Arkansas State all they wanted in a 28-24 road loss as 9-point dogs.  That's a very good Arkansas State team under Butch Jones and I think they contend for a Sun Belt title, so that wasn't a bad loss at all.

Redshirt freshman QB Kirk Francis has been impressive, comlpeting 67.2% of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.  Avant, Jackson and Watkins have combined for over 300 rushing yards as this is a nice three-headed monster in the backfield.  Kamdyn Benjamin was their leading receiver last year and has 11 receptions for 196 yards and two TD thus far through two games.  

They will have success against a Oklahoma State defense that is allowing 518 yards per game through two games, including 4.7 yards per carry and 8.2 yards per attempt through the air.  They will never be out of this game and the back door will be open if we need it, but I don't think we will.  The Golden Hurricane get to play the 'little brother' role here and will simply want it more.  Bet Tulsa Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on LSU/South Carolina UNDER 50.5

The forecast could help us cash this UNDER 50.5 ticket between LSU and South Carolina on Saturday.  There is a 60% chance of rain and 10 MPH winds in the forecast.  I don't think it will matter given both teams have defenses that are ahead of their offenses thus far.

South Carolina looks like a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Gamecocks managed just 288 total yards in their 23-19 win over Old Dominion in the opener.  They had two drives start inside the Old Dominion 10-yard line due to turnovers too to get their only two touchdowns.

Last week, South Carolina beat Kentucky 31-6 in an absolute slug fest.  The Gamecocks only managed 252 total yards and held the Wildcats to 183 total yards.  They are now allowing just 244 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play through two games.

LSU managed to hold USC to 27 points in the opener on a fast turf.  That's the same USC team that hung 48 points on Utah State last week.  The Tigers lost their Heisman Trophy winner at QB in Jaden Daniels along with all of their top playmakers.   They also lost their offensive coordinator, and now they are a much more defensive-minded team in 2024.

South Carolina ranks 79th in seconds per play going 27.8 seconds in between snaps thus far.  QB LaNorris Sellers is one of the worst Power 4 QB's in the country.  But 8 starters are back on defense including six of their top seven tacklers for defensive-minded Shane Beamer.  But the big change is LSU, which ranks 116th in seconds per play at 30.9 seconds in between snaps.  They have changed from an up-tempo team last season to a ball control team this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Brewers/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 30-14 in their last 44 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 200 runs in their last 29 games for an average of 6.9 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

This total of 8.5 is too low for a game involving the Diamondbacks and Brewers, who are scoring 4.8 runs per game.  I'm not a big fan of either starting pitcher tonight either.  Freddy Peralta is 10-8 with a 3.81 ERA this season, while Eduardo Rodriquez is 2-2 with a 5.83 ERA this season.

The OVER is 32-9-1 in Diamondbacks last 42 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 31 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night Line Mistake on Arizona Diamondbacks -104

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 30-14 in their last 44 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 200 runs in their last 29 games for an average of 6.9 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Diamondbacks still have a lot to play for trying to clinch a wild card spot.  The Brewers don't have much to play for as they basically already have the NL Central locked up with a 9-game lead with only 16 games remaining.  Motivation is on Arizona's side.

The Diamondbacks also have the rest advantage after having yesterday off, while the Brewers just completed a 3-game series in San Francisco.  The Brewers have scored 3 runs or fewer in six of their last seven games overall and have gone cold here down the stretch.  Eduardo Rodriquez will be better than Freddy Peralta today.  Bet the Diamondbacks Friday.

20* UNLV/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on UNLV +7.5

UNLV went 9-5 and made the Mountain West Championship Game in Barry Odom's first season on the job last year.  Odom has put this team on the map and players want to come play for him.  He has 11 returning starters plus a tremendous recruiting class this season, and the Rebels are MWC contenders once again.

That was evident with their 27-7 upset win at Houston in the opener as 3.5-point dogs.  That's the same Houston team that went on to nearly upset Oklahoma on the road last week in a 16-12 loss as 27.5-point dogs, making that win over the Cougars all the more impressive.

UNLV easily could have had a letdown against Utah Tech last week off the Houston win and with Kansas on deck, but they showed great maturity in dismantling Utah Tech 72-14 as 41.5-point favorites.  Now they want revenge on Kansas after losing 49-36 to the Jayhawks in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl last year, adding fuel to the fire.

UNLV QB Matthew Sluka is a dual-threat that looks for contact from defenders, and his team follows his lead.  Sluka has a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio passing through two games, while also leading the team in rushing with 129 yards and a score while averaging 6.4 per attempt.  The Rebels are averaging 7.0 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense and are vastly improved on D.

Kansas came into the season ranked and they probably didn't deserve to be.  They went 9-4 last season and expectations were high, so it's a good time to 'sell high' on them early in the season.  Kansas failed to cover as a 49.5-point favorite in their opener against Lindenwood as they only scored 48 points.  Then they promptly lost 23-17 as 5-point road favorites at Illinois against a Fighting Illini team that was expected to be down this year.

QB Jalon Daniels has been solid when he has been healthy, but he has been through so many injuries you know it's in his head.  Jason Bean played well in his place last year and moved on to the NFL, and I'm not sure Daniels is better than Bean was.  Daniels is completing just 57.4% of his passes with a 3-to-4 TD/INT ratio while only rushing for 35 yards on 10 carries thus far despite facing a weak schedule.  

A sneaky loss for Kansas this offseason was offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State.  Daniels and company look a bit lost without him thus far.  I think this improved UNLV defense can hold them in check as well and possibly pull off the outright upset Friday night.  Kansas should be the fresher team after the blowout win over Utah Tech, while Kansas was in a war with physical Illinois.  UNLV is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  Bet UNLV Friday.

15* Brewers/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

Heavy winds were blowing out last night which is why a game that involved two great starting pitchers in Blake Snell and Colin Rea saw 15 combined runs with a 7-run total.  Now the wind will be blowing out again tonight at 10 MPH and we have two much worse starting pitchers going, so both offenses should have their way.

Frankie Montas is the biggest weak link in Milwaukee's rotation.  He is 6-10 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  He allowed 5 runs, 4 earned, and 8 base runners in 4 2/3 innings of a 6-5 loss to the Giants in his lone start against them in 2024.

Rookie Hayden Birdsong is in over his head thus far in the majors.  Birdsong is 3-5 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 12 starts this season while allowing 10 homers and 35 walks in 52 innings.  Birdsong allowed 5 earned runs and 8 base runners in 3 2/3 innings to the Brewers in one of those 12 starts on August 29th.  Both offenses will feast in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Bills/Dolphins AFC East No-Brainer on Buffalo +2.5

Note: I am also playing a 6-Point Teaser with the Bills +8.5/Broncos +9

The Buffalo Bills are coming off a misleading 34-28 win over the Arizona Cardinals.  Neither team deserved to score that many points, especially Arizona, which was held to just 270 total yards and 4.5 yards per play.  But the Cardinals scored on a 96-yard kickoff return TD in the 4th quarter and were set up with short fields on a few other kickoffs.

The Bills did pretty much whatever they wanted to offensively averaging 6.1 yards per play.  And they will do pretty much whatever they want to offensively against a Miami defense that lost five of their top six sackers from last season.  And this is a Miami defense that just cannot figure out Josh Allen and the Bills.

Indeed, the Bills are 11-1 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Dolphins with their lone loss coming by 2 points.  So they would be 12-0 ATS with a line of +2.5, which is what we are getting the Bills at in this game.  There's nothing fluky about this run as Buffalo has outgained Miami in 10 consecutive meetings.  Wrong team favored here.

Miami was fortunate to win 20-17 at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.  The Dolphins trailed 17-7 and Jacksonville was going in for a TD that would have put the game out of reach at 24-7 in the 3rd quarter.  But Travis Etienne fumbled going into the end zone, and the Dolphins scored on a Tyreek Hill bomb on the very next play.  The game changed with that one play in what was otherwise a dominant effort by the Jaguars.

Miami has a ton of injuries and one of the worst offensive lines in the league.  The Bills are better up front on both sides of the ball and will dominate the line is scrimmage, which has been the key to their dominance over the last 12 meetings.  RB Mostert is out and RB Achane will be a game-time decision, so they are thin in the backfield.  There are also concerning injuries on their defensive line and in their secondary.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

15* ASU/Texas State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Texas State +2

G.J. Kinne massively exceeded expectations in his first season at Texas State after coming off from Incarnate Word where he led them to a 12-2 season in 2022 with a record-setting offense.  Kinne led the Bobcats to an 8-5 season in his first year on the job including an upset road win over Baylor as a 27-point dog.

Now Texas State returns 18 starters this season and is a legitimate playoff contender to be the Group of 5 representative.  Nine starters are back from an offense that put up 36.7 points per game and 459 yards per game.  Texas State allowed 398 yards per game on defense last year and has nine starters back after having just four starters back last season and will be improved on D.

Everyone sees that they only beat Lamar 34-27 as a 33.5-point favorite in Week 1.  But a deeper dive into the box score shows that this was a much bigger blowout.  They led 18-0 at halftime and took their foot off the gas, likely looking ahead to their huge showdown with UTSA.  They still outgained Lamar 486 to 288, or by nearly 200 yards.

We got the more true version of Texas State last week in their 49-10 beat down of UTSA as a 2.5-point home favorite.  They outgained the Miners 504 to 318, or by 186 total yards.  Granted, this wasn't as big of a blowout as the final score, but it was still another dominant effort in the box score.

1st-team All-Sun Belt QB Jordan McCloud has transferred in from James Madison.  He is completing 68.4% of his passes for 547 yards with a 5-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for a pair of scores through two games.  2nd-team All-American RB Ismail Mahdi is back after rushing for 1,331 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.  He has rushed for 182 yards and a touchdown in two games.  2nd-Team All-Sun Belt WR Joey Hobert is back after catching 76 balls for 895 yards and 8 TD last year for the Bobcats.  He has 10 receptions for 143 yards and 2 TD thus far.

Arizona State is improved this season but is certainly getting too much credit for its 2-0 start.  The Sun Devils beat Wyoming 48-7 in Week 1, but that's the same Wyoming team that went on to get upset by FCS Idaho at home in Week 2.  Last week they beat Mississippi State 30-23 as a 6.5-point favorite, but the Bulldogs are one of the worst teams in the SEC this season.  This will be ASU's toughest test yet, and they should not be road favorites here.

Texas State has a huge rest advantage getting to stay at home and play on a short week here Thursday.  They will also be on ESPN for the first time in a very long time, and they will take advantage of their opportunity to make their case in front of a National TV audience that they should be the Group of 5 representative in the playoff.  Arizona State must travel to Texas State on this short week after a physical game against Mississippi State, while the Bobcats made easy work of UTSA and will still be fresh as a result.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Texas State Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cubs/Dodgers OVER 9

These are two of the hottest lineups in baseball.  The forecast is going to help us cash in this OVER 9 ticket with temps around 70 and 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.  This has the makings of a slug fest between the Dodgers and Cubs in Game 3 tonight after they combined for 14 runs in Game 1 and 9 more in Game 2.

The Cubs are capable of covering this total on their own.  Bobby Miller has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, but the Dodgers just keep sending him out there to get battered.  Miller is 2-4 with a 7.79 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 11 starts this season, allowing 43 earned runs and 15 homers in 49 2/3 innings.

Jordan Wicks is the better starter in this matchup, but the Dodgers will do enough against him to help us cash in this OVER 9 ticket.  Wicks is 2-3 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in eight starts and one relief appearance for the Cubs.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Cubs and Dodgers with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +153

The Chicago Cubs are still alive for the NL wild card and every game is a must-win for them from here on in.  They have come up clutch, going 13-5 in their last 18 games overall to stay alive, including wins in each of the first two games of this series while outscoring the Dodgers 16-7 thus far.

Now the Cubs have the advantage on the mound in Game 3 and will pull off the sweep as they should not be underdogs.  Jordan Wicks is 2-3 with a 4.03 ERA in eight starts and one relief appearance this season for the Cubs.

While not great, Wicks has been much better than Bobby Miller, who has been one of the worst starters in baseball yet the Dodgers keep sending him out there.  Miller is 2-4 with a 7.79 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 11 starts this season, allowing 43 earned runs and 15 homers in 49 2/3 innings.  Wrong team favored.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Red Sox OVER 9

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off tonight in Game 3 of this series between Baltimore and Boston.  The Orioles are scoring 4.9 runs per game while the Red Sox are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season, and this total of 9 is too short.

Dean Kremer is 7-9 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 21 starts for the Orioles this season.  Kremer has allowed 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 innings in his last three starts against the Red Sox for a 5.79 ERA.

Nick Pivetta is 5-10 with a 4.38 ERA in 22 starts for the Red Sox this season.  He has allowed 24 homers in those 22 starts, including 10 homers and 23 earned runs in 36 innings in his last seven starts for a 5.75 ERA during this stretch.  Pivetta allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings in his lone start against the Orioles this season on August 15th.

Nine of the last 11 meetings between the Orioles and Red Sox at hitter-friendly Fenway Park have seen 10 or more combined runs, making for a 9-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 9-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Cubs/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

There are two of the hottest lineups in baseball.  The forecast is going to help us cash in this OVER 8 ticket with temps in the 70's and 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.  This has the makings of a slug fest between the Dodgers and Cubs in Game 2 tonight after they combined for 14 runs in Game 1 last night.

No question Shota Imanaga is having an impressive rookie season, but he hasn't faced a lineup as potent as the Dodgers.  They are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season and have been on a tear since getting healthy.  They will get to Imanaga tonight.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be making his first start for the Dodgers since June 15th.  He will be on a pitch count, and the Cubs will get to him and this Los Angeles bullpen that is pretty taxed right now.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 9 or more combined runs in six of those seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers/Diamondbacks OVER 7.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 28-14 in their last 42 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 180 runs in their last 27 games for an average of 6.7 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

This total of 7.5 is too low for a game involving the Diamondbacks.  That's especially the case considering the Rangers are hot as well scoring 6 runs or more in five of their last eight games overall.

Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen both get a lot of respect from the books, but both have struggled compared to normal this season.  Eovaldi has allowed 7 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Arizona.  Gallen has allowed 9 earned runs in 22 innings in his last four starts.

The OVER is 31-8-1 in Diamondbacks last 40 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 30 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Padres/Mariners Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

The San Diego Padres have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 4.8 runs per game.  They have been at their best offensively on the road as well.  The Seattle Mariners are heating up at the plate scoring a total of 38 runs in their last five games for an average of 7.6 runs per game.

This total of 7 is too low for these two offenses going up against these two starting pitchers.  Yu Darvish is working his way back from injury making just his 2nd start since May.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings to the Tigers while throwing just 63 pitches in his first start back, and he'll surely be on a pitch count again tonight.

George Kirby is going through his worst stretch of the season for the Mariners.  He has allowed 21 earned runs and 9 homers in 31 innings in his last six starts for a 6.10 ERA.  This despite facing a soft schedule of the Tigers (twice), Pirates, Giants, Angels and A's.  The Padres will get to him tonight as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Orioles/Red Sox OVER 9

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off tonight in Game 2 of this series after a 12-3 win by the Red Sox in Game 1 that saw 15 combined runs.  The Orioles are scoring 4.9 runs per game while the Red Sox are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season, and this total of 9 is too short.

Kutter Crawford is 8-13 with a 4.08 ERA in 29 starts for the Red Sox this season.  Crawford has allowed 8 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in two starts against the Orioles this season.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

Albert Suarez has solid numbers for the Orioles, but he is one of the biggest regression candidates here down the stretch because he pitches too much to contact and isn't used to this kind of workload.  Suarez has just 87 K's in 113 1/3 innings, and he has never pitched more than 84 innings in his career.  He allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 1/3 innings to the lowly White Sox in his last start.  

Nine of the last 10 meetings between the Orioles and Red Sox at hitter-friendly Fenway Park have seen 10 or more combined runs, making for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 9-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* MLB GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Mets -122

I love everything about the New York Mets tonight.  They are streaking right now going 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  They have come up clutch to take a one game lead on the Atlanta Braves in the race for the final wild card spot in the National League.  And I fully expect them to take care of the hapless Toronto Blue Jays tonight.

David Peterson is arguably the single-most underrated starter in baseball this season.  Peterson is 9-1 with a 2.75 ERA in 17 starts this season.  Amazingly, he has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 15 of his 17 starts.  What more does this guy have to do to get some respect?

I'll gladly fade Chris Bassitt, who is 9-13 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 28 starts for the Blue Jays this season.  Bassitt has allowed 18 earned runs, 5 homers and 41 base runners in 27 innings in his last five starts coming in.

The Blue Jays have waved the white flag.  They are 1-6 in their last seven games overall while being held to 3 runs or fewer in 9 of their last 12 games.  They were already without one of their best hitters in Bo Bichette, and they just lost their best hitter in Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.322, 28 HR, 94 RBI this season) for this series.  Bet the Mets Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Royals/Yankees OVER 8.5

Two of the best offenses in the American League square off in this series between the Yankees and Royals.  The Yankees are scoring 5.1 runs per game while the Royals are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season.

Seth Lugo is having a great season for the Royals, but one of his worst starts came against the Yankees on June 10th.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings for the Yankees, and they will get to him again tonight after putting up 10 runs on the Royals last night.

The Royals will get their bats going against Marcus Stroman, who allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 3 2/3 innings to the Blue Jays in his last start.  Stroman has a 4.03 ERA on the season and pitches too much to contact with just 105 K's in 143 innings.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 11 or more combined runs in three of the four.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Nationals UNDER 8

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have gone 86-53 UNDER in all games this season.  Their lineup has been decimated by injuries, but their staff has carried them into playoff contention.  The Nationals have been even worse offensively than the Braves this season.

Reynaldo Lopez is having himself a season.  Lopez is 8-5 with a 2.04 ERA in 23 starts for the Braves this season.  He has been absolutely dominant since returning from the IL, allowing just 5 earned runs in 23 innings with a whopping 34 K's in his last four starts.  Lopez has held the Nationals to 3 earned runs in 12 innings with 14 K's in two starts against them this season.

MacKenzie Gore has been a bright spot for the Nationals this season.  He has allowed just 4 earned runs in 18 innings with 19 K's in his last three starts.  Gore owns the Braves, allowing just 3 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings with 21 K's for a 1.56 ERA in three starts against them in 2024 alone.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cubs/Dodgers OVER 9

Two pitchers who shouldn't even be starting at the major league level right now square off tonight against two of the hottest lineups in baseball.  The forecast is going to help us cash in this OVER 9 ticket as well with temps in the 90's and 11 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.  This has the makings of a slug fest between the Dodgers and Cubs in Game 1 tonight.

Kyle Hendricks is 3-11 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 20 starts and five relief appearances for the Cubs this season.  If they had anyone other than Hendricks for those 20 starts, they would probably be in the playoffs right now.  But they keep sending him out there to get battered every start.

Walker Buehler is 1-4 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 12 starts for the Dodgers this season.  They keep sending him out there thinking he'll return to form, but it's not happening.  Buehler's fastball velocity is way down from back when he was dominant and he gives up a ton of hard contact and only 7.5 K/9 this season.

Hendricks allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings of a 9-7 win over the Dodgers in his lone start against them back on April 5th.  He has now allowed 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 10 or more combined runs in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Jets/49ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York +4.5

The New York Jets have managed to fly under the radar this offseason despite being in the biggest media market in pro sports.  That's a good thing because they haven't caused many headlines, and they are ready to go for the 2024 season.

The same cannot be said for the San Francisco 49ers.  They had two big contract holdouts in LT Trent Williams and WR Brandon Aiyuk.  The 49ers eventually signed both, but not until the week before this game.  The chemistry will be off for the 49ers early in the season as a result.

The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing.  It's usually a good move to fade the Super Bowl loser every season, especially early in the year, and especially in Week 1.  Indeed, the loser of the Super Bowl from the previous season has gone 4-20 ATS in Week 1 over the last 24 years.  It makes sense because these teams aren't over their Super Bowl loss, and it's tough for them to get focused for another run after coming so close.

The Jets should be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They lost Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending injury in his first drive of the season last year.  Just having him healthy will make a huge difference alone.  It was a minor miracle the Jets won 7 games last year while playing three QB's that may never start another game in the NFL.

That was a testament to their defense, which will once again be one of the best in the NFL and is a better unit than what the 49ers have to offer.  They finished 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed last season.  Headlining this defense is DT Quinnen Williams, LB's C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams, and CB Sauce Gardner.  All four rank near the top of the NFL at their respective positions.

The Jets gave Rodgers plenty of help on offense.  They signed veteran WR Mike Williams and he will be opposite stud youngster Garrett Wilson.  Third-round pick Malachi Corley is drawing comparisons to Deebo Samuel.  RB Breece Hall is one of the best in the league and showed he is fully recovered from his torn ACL in 2022 with a big finish last season.  

The Jets really bolstered what was one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last year.  They used the No. 11 pick on to challenge RT Morgan Moses.  They signed G John Simpson from Baltimore, and C Joe Tippmann was a second-round pick last year that will only improve.  They signed LT Tyron Smith from Dallas, and RG Alijah Vera-Tucker is solid when healthy, which is the case currently.

New York head coach Robert Saleh knows what to expect from Kyle Shanahan after serving under him as their defensive coordinator before taking his current job.  I like how healthy the Jets are and how under the radar they are flying heading into the season.  I will gladly fade the 49ers and their crazy offseason, plus the Super Bowl hangover factor.  

Aaron Rodgers is a perfect 10-0 SU in his last 10 Monday Night Football starts.  Underdogs are 29-12-1 ATS in the last 42 MNF games.  Bet the Jets Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Pirates OVER 7.5

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 78-62 OVER in all games.  They allow 5.2 runs per game on the season with a terrible staff.  But they are raking at the plate right now scoring 19 runs in two games against the Phillies over the weekend.

The Pirates are also raking right now, scoring at least 5 runs in five of their last seven games with the OVER going 5-2 during this stretch.  They should stay hot against Valente Bellozo, who is 2-2 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in nine starts for the Marlins this season.  He pitches too much to contact with just 33 K's in 47 2/3 innings.

It's no secret that the Pirates are close to shutting down Paul Skenes.  He isn't going very deep into games and he is on a pitch count.  He hasn't pitched past the 6th inning in any of his last seven starts.  This awful Pirates bullpen will be exposed late in this game as the Marlins tack on a few extra runs if we need them.  Both teams will be scoring in the later innings as the Marlins have an awful bullpen as well.  

The OVER is 4-0 in four meetings between the Marlins and Pirates this season with 9 or more combined runs in all four games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* DBacks/Astros ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 27-14 in their last 41 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 169 runs in their last 26 games for an average of 6.5 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

The Astros have scored 19 runs in the first two games of this series.  I expect them to get to Ryne Nelson, who is 10-6 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 24 starts for the Diamondbacks this season.

Justin Verlander continuously gets too much respect from the books and is washed up.  Verlander is 3-5 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  He has allowed 19 earned runs and 41 base runners in 24 2/3 innings in his last five starts for a 6.93 ERA. 

The OVER is 30-8-1 in Diamondbacks last 39 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 29 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +3.5

The Washington Commanders finally have new ownership.  They have a new head coach in Dan Quinn and a new offensive coordinator in Kliff Kingsbury.  They took Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick, and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.  The Commanders have new life and there is a buzz around the building about the prospects of this team.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers back-doored the NFC South title last year.  But the NFC South is the worst division in football.  And they lost arguably the most important piece to that run in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who took the head coaching job of the Carolina Panthers.  Canales was with Geno Smith for his career year in Seattle, and he was with Baker Mayfield for his career year in Tampa Bay last season.  I think this offense takes a big hit without Canales running it.

The Commanders had the worst turnover differential (-14) in the NFL last season while the Buccaneers (+6) had one of the best.  The Bucs were one of the luckiest teams in the NFL last year, and they benefited from playing in the worst division in football.  The Commanders were one of the most unlucky teams.  As a result, this line is inflated and we are getting great value on the Commanders +3.5 in Week 1 when I believe they are actually the better team.

I love the additions the Commanders made along the offensive line and at running back.  They also made some great additions at linebacker, and the front seven is very strong to make up for their one weakness, which is the secondary.  The Commanders will have the element of surprise because the Bucs won't know what to expect from Daniels in Kingsbury's offense.  I think they both shine in Week 1.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans -2.5

The Houston Texans chased down the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South last year in rookie QB CJ Stroud's first season.  He was by far the best QB of the rookie class and is already one of the best QB's in the NFL.  He is a big reason I believe the Texans are a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season.

The Texans won a playoff game by blowing out the Browns, but then lost at Baltimore in the Divisional Round.  They showed they could play with the big boys, and the pieces they added in the offseason and better health could have them really making some noise this season.

The Texans added two huge pieces on offense in RB Joe Mixon and WR Stefon Diggs.  Diggs is just one of three talented receivers that Stroud will be throwing to.  Nico Collins took a big leap last year and was their top receiver, and Tank Dell was dynamite before being lost for the season due to injury in Week 13.  TE Dalton Schultz is also one of the most underrated in his position in the league.

While the Houston offense gets all the headlines, this is going to be one of the best defenses in the NFL as well.  Not only did Stroud win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the Texans moved up to No. 3 to draft Will Anderson, who won Defensive Rookie of the Year.  They do lose Jonathan Greenard and his 12.5 sacks last year, but replace him with Danielle Hunter, who had had 16.5 sacks with the Vikings last year and is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL.  Anderson and Hunter form arguably the best pass-rushing tandem in the league.

They replaced Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins with Foley Fatukasi and Denico Autry.  Fatukasi is one of the best runs stuffers in the league, whlie Autry is coming off a 12.5-sack season. CB Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the best in the league, and they spend 2nd and 3rd round picks on Kamaris Lassiter and Calen Bullock to bolster the defensive backfield.  Jimmie Warn and Jalen Pitre are two quality safeties.  Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be their top linebacker.

The Indianapolis Colts are relying on 2nd-year pro Anthony Richardson at quarterback.  While he has the physical tools, he struggles with accuracy and is almost more of a threat in the running game.  His reckless style led to him getting hurt in every game he played last year.  While the offense should be good in the running game with Jonathan Taylor, I don't love the weapons on the outside.

The main problem with the Colts is defense.  They have a solid defensive line, but linebacker and secondary is a weakness.  The Colts haven't recovered from Shaq Leonard's decline and eventual release.  E.J. Speed and Zaire Franklin are liabilities in coverage.  We are getting the Texans at a discount in the opener as short 2.5-point road favorites.  

The Colts are 1-14-1 ATS in their last 16 Week 1 games.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Dolphins OVER 48.5

This is going to be a shootout between what will turn out to be two of the best offenses in the NFL in the Jaguars and Dolphins.  Temps will be in the 80's with less than 10 MPH winds and only a 25% chance of rain in Miami, so conditions were perfect for that shootout as well.

The Dolphins probably have the best offense in the NFL.  They put have averaged 35.5 points per game in the first three games of the season under current head coach Mike McDaniel.  They have all their weapons back from last year, plus open the season with a healthy offensive line, which wasn't the case last year.

The problem for the Dolphins is defense, where they will be without five of their top six leaders in sacks from last season due to either moving on to a different team or due to injury.  CB Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a hamstring injury as well.  This banged up, short-handed defense will get tired and shredded in the Miami heat.

The Jaguars are loaded on offense this season.  They put up big numbers before Trevor Lawrence got hurt last year.  They added C Mitch Morse and rookie WR Brian Thomas with the only key loss being WR Calvin Ridley.  They will have better health alone the offensive line and start the season intact up front.

The Jaguars did not play well defensively last year ranking 26th in defensive EPA for the season, including bottom 10 in both stopping the run and defending the pass.  They hired Ryan Nielsen as their new defensive coordinator.  He runs a more aggressive style with lots of man-to-man coverage.  But that's exactly the type of defense that the Dolphins shred as they are much worse against 2-high zone defenses.  Look for Jacksonville's defense to be out of sorts in Week 1 trying to execute the new scheme against the league's top offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Titans/Bears OVER 44.5

The Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans are two offenses I am very high on this year.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two offenses.  These were two poor offenses last year, and that perception is creating value for us to take the OVER 44.5.

The Bears got the No. 1 overall pick in Caleb Williams and he's already probably the best QB they have had in 20-plus years.  They used the 8th pick on WR Rome Odunze, signed one of the most productive WR's in the game in Keenan Allen, and signed WR DJ Moore to a new contract after a big season last year.  TE Cole Kmet is one of the most underrated in the game.  RB D'Andre Swift comes over from the Eagles to give them a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield with Khalil Herbert.

The Titans also made massive improvements to the offense this offseason.  They brought in WR's Calvin Ridley from the Jaguars and Tyler Boyd from the Bengals after signing WR DeAndre Hopkins last year.  RB's Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears form a solid 1-2 punch as both are weapons catching the ball out of the backfield.  Now QB Will Levis has a chance to shine under first-year head coach Brian Callahan, who was the offensive coordinator of the Bengals.  He brought in his dad, one of the best O-Line coaches ever, to work with an improved offensive line.  They used the 7th overall pick on LT JC Latham, while also signing C Lloyd Cushenberry, and this should now be one of the most improved O-Lines in the league.

The Bears have some significant injuries on defense.  They were fortunate late in the season with some turnover luck that made their numbers look better than they really were.  The Titans can expose them in Week 1.  While the Titans did make some improvements on defense, they can only go up from here after having one of the worst stop units in the league last year.  They will be improved to probably league average, but the Bears should be able to exploit them as well, especially at linebacker.

It's rare you get a forecast this nice at Soldier Field in Chicago.  Temps will be in the 60's with single-digit winds.  Both Williams and Levis are in line for big days in a game that should easily top 44.5 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Giants +2

Note: I also played a 6-point teaser on the Giants +8/Cowboys +8.5

The New York Giants surprised and made the playoffs in Brian Daboll's first season on the job in 2022.  They also got a full healthy season out of QB Daniel Jones.  That wasn't the case last year as the Giants went through three different QB's and were even starting Tommy DeVito down the stretch.  They finished 6-11 in a forgetful season.

Now DaBoll is taking over play-calling duties and putting his money where his mouth is.  The Giants stuck with Jones at QB so they could make improvements elsewhere and actually get him some help for once.  They did that instantly in the draft by taking WR Malik Nabers from LSU with the 6th pick.  He is the guy they wanted all along, even over Marvin Harrison Jr., which is saying something.

They lost RB Saquon Barkley and replaced him with RB Devin Singletary, but running backs aren't worth much and I like the replacement.  They spent big money to get one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL in DE Brian Burns.  They shored up the offensive line by signing OT Jermaine Eluemunor, G Jon Runyan and G Aaron Stinnie.  They got the secondary some help with S Tyler Nubin and CB Andru Phillips with their second and third picks in the NFL Draft, respectively.

It's the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Giants as home underdogs against a Minnesota Vikings team that has no business being a road favorite.  Injuries have really decimated the Vikings this offseason.  They just can't catch a break.  

They moved up to draft JJ McCarthy, and now he is out with a season-ending injury suffered in the preseason.  Now their fate is in the hands of QB Sam Darnold, who is no more than a decent backup in this league.  I would take Daniel Jones over Darnold any day.

4th-round pick Khyree Jackson died in a traffic accident two months after getting drafted.  They lost one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL in Danielle Hunter, who had 16.5 sacks last year and was a big reason defensive coordinator Brian Flores' aggressive system worked.  TE TJ Hockenson is out with an injury, and WR Jordan Addison has an ankle injury but is expected to play.  

Daboll is a perfect 7-0 SU in his last seven games as a head coach or offensive coordinator against a Brian Flores-coached defense.  He has him figured out.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Orioles UNDER 8

I love taking UNDERS in these early start time games.  This game is scheduled for 12:05 EST and will be the first game off the board.  Players tend to be sleep-walking through these games, and it will benefit both starting pitchers, which I am a fan of.

The Rays have one of the worst offenses in baseball.  They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in eight of their last 13 games overall.  The Orioles aren't exactly crushing the ball right now either.  They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in nine of their last 16 games overall, including a total of 4 runs in their last three games.

Corbin Burnes is 13-7 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 28 starts this season.  After a rough stretch recently, he has gotten it together allowing just 2 earned runs in 10 innings in his last two starts.  Burnes has owned the Rays this season, allowing just 3 earned runs in 13 innings in two starts against them.

Zack Littell is going through one of his best stretches of the season for the Rays.  He has allowed just 7 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings in his last five starts for a 2.36 ERA.  Littell has held his own against the Orioles, allowing 7 earned runs in 17 innings in his last three starts against them this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Colorado/Nebraska NBC No-Brainer on Nebraska -7

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  In Matt Rhule I trust.  He is a program builder, and he will have the Huskers going bowling for the first time since 2016.  Rhule went 2-10, 6-6, 10-4 and then 10-4 in his four years at Temple.  He went 1-11, 7-6 and then started 10-1 in his three seasons at Baylor.

Rhule has 17 starters back this season.  Eight starters return to an elite defense that allowed just 18.3 points per game last season.  The Huskers have one of the best defensive lines in the country leading the way.  They can rely on this defense to be competitive in every game.

But the real excitement comes on offense, where nine starters return and they add in the 2nd-rated QB in the entire country in 5-star prospect Dylan Raiola.  He lit it up in the Spring Game and is the real deal.  Raiola gives the Huskers hope, and he has a solid offensive line and receivers in front of him.They added Jahmal Banks from Wake Forest and Isaiah Neyor from Wyoming as two very good weapons outside.

The Huskers were sharp in their 40-7 win over UTEP as 27.5-point home favorites in the opener.  Raiola lived up to the hype, completing 19 of 27 passes for 238 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover.  

Now the Huskers want revenge from a 36-14 loss at Colorado last year.  The Huskers committed 4 turnovers to give the game away in what was a closer game than the final score would indicate.  Now Nebraska gets Colorado at home this time around and it will be a raucous atmosphere with Deion Sanders coming to town, and fans gushing with optimism about this team.

Colorado has two elite players in QB Shedeur Sanders and WR/CB Travis Hunter, but not much else.  Defense is a problem after allowing 34.8 points per game and 453 yards per game last season.  That defense wasn't much better in a 31-26 win over North Dakota State as 11.5-point favorites in the opener.  The Buffaloes allowed 449 total yards to the Bison, who aren't as strong as they normally are in the FCS after losing their head coach to USC and a All-American safety to injury.

Nebraska will get enough stops here and will likely score at will against this soft Colorado defense to cover this 7-point spread.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Western Michigan +38.5

Ohio State is the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public that are very tough to live up to.  We saw that play out last week against Akron as the Buckeyes failed to cover as 49-point favorites.

The Buckeyes won that game 52-6, but it was much closer than that.  This was a 17-3 game at halftime.  Ohio State scored two defensive touchdowns in the win.  They only gained 404 total yards against Akron.  Now they must face a much better team from the MAC in Western Michigan, and they should not be laying 38.5 points to them.

The Broncos are a contender to win the MAC this season.  Second-year head coach Lance Taylor has a much better team this season with 17 starters back after returning only 10 starters in his first season last year.  They return nine starters on offense including stud QB Hayden Wolff, 1,000-yard rusher Jalen Buckley and their leading receiver in Kenneth Womack.  Eight starters are back on defense and 11 of their top 14 tacklers return.

Western Michigan was very impressive in a 28-14 loss at Wisconsin as 24-point underdogs in the opener.  The Broncos actually led that game 14-13 in the 4th quarter and had the Badgers on the ropes.  Wolff completed 12-of-18 passes and Buckey rushed for two touchdowns in the loss.  The defense was the most impressive, holding the Badgers to 388 total yards and only 4.7 yards per play.  They are more than capable of staying within 38 points of the Buckeyes.  Bet Western Michigan Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Georgia Southern/Nevada OVER 55

This is a very low total for a game involving Georgia Southern.  The Eagles put up 30.2 points per game last season and allowed 30.5 points per game.  Six of their final seven games last season saw 62 or more combined points.

The Eagles opened with a 56-45 shootout loss to Boise State this season that saw a whopping 101 combined points.  Putting up 45 points and 461 total yards on that Boise State defense is no small feat.  The Eagles also ran at the 5th-fastest tempo of any team in Week 1 averaging 21.2 seconds between offensive snaps.  That won't change all season.

Nevada looks vastly improved offensively this season.  The Wolf Pack put up 24 points on a very good SMU defense in the opener.  They then scored 28 points on what was a very good Troy defense last season.  QB Brendon Lewis is completing 67.4% of his passes with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio thus far while also rushing for 111 yards in two games.

The OVER is 7-1 in Georgia Southern's last eight games overall.  The OVER is 4-1 in Nevada's last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Alabama/Ohio OVER 55.5

Offensive-minded Major Applewhite takes over for defensive-minded Kenny Wommack, who was just hired as defensive coordinator at Alabama.  Applewhite was the offensive coordinator here the last three seasons and led the Jaguars to 33.1 points per game last season and 31.2 points per game in 2022.

The South Alabama defense only returns three starters this year and could be one of worst stop units in the country.  That was in display when they lost 52-38 to North Texas in their opener in a game that saw 90 combined points.  They allowed 550 total yards including 446 passing to the Mean Green.

But South Alabama had a big day offensively and ran at one of the fastest tempos in college football last week.  The Jaguars had 582 total yards themselves.  Gio Lopez, who led South Alabama to a 59-10 win over Eastern Michigan in their bowl game last year, is the new QB.  He accounted for a school record 494 yards and 4 total TD with 432 passing and 62 rushing.

Ohio lost 38-22 to Syracuse in the opener.  The Orange had 480 total yards while the Bobcats had 436 total yards in what could have been an even bigger shootout if not for four field goals.  This Ohio defense only returned four starters and is going through some growing pains early.  But I liked what I saw from this Ohio offense, especially Northwestern transfer RB Anthony Tyus, who rushed for 203 yards and 2 TD on what was supposed to be a solid Syracuse defense.

With South Alabama playing at a rapid pace, this game should easily see OVER 55.5 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rays/Orioles UNDER 8

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 8 ticket between the Orioles and Rays today.  There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from left at Camden Yards in this one that will keep the ball in the park.

The Rays have one of the worst offenses in baseball.  They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in eight of their last 12 games overall.  The Orioles aren't exactly crushing the ball right now either.  They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in eight of their last 15 games overall, including a total of 3 runs in their last two games.

Zach Eflin is 10-7 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  He is going through his best stretch of the season right now, allowing just 4 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings in his last four starts for a 1.37 ERA.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in six consecutive starts, including 2 runs or fewer in five of those.

Ryan Pepiot is 7-6 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 21 starts for the Rays this season.  He is going through his best stretch of the season as well, allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in nine consecutive starts, including 2 runs or fewer in eight of those nine.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Diamondbacks/Astros OVER 8

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 27-13 in their last 40 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 164 runs in their last 25 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

Eduardo Rodriquez has taken a step up in competition here of late and has not fared well.  He has allowed 8 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers and Mets.  Now he must face a Houston lineup that just hung 8 runs on the Diamondbacks yesterday.  Rodriquez has allowed 13 earned runs, 3 homers and 28 base runners in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Astros.

Yusei Kikuchi is getting a lot of respect with this total set so low at 8.  But Kikuchi had one of his worst starts of the season against the Diamondbacks back on July 14th.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 8-7 win over Arizona in a game that saw 15 combined runs.

The OVER is 29-8-1 in Diamondbacks last 38 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 28 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Group of 5 ANNIHILATOR on Texas State -2.5

G.J. Kinne massively exceeded expectations in his first season at Texas State after coming off from Incarnate Word where he led them to a 12-2 season in 2022 with a record-setting offense.  Kinne led the Bobcats to an 8-5 season in his first year on the job including an upset road win over Baylor as a 27-point dog.

Now Texas State returns 18 starters this season and is a legitimate playoff contender to be the Group of 5 representative.  Nine starters are back from an offense that put up 36.7 points per game and 459 yards per game.  Texas State allowed 398 yards per game on defense last year and has nine starters back after having just four starters back last season and will be improved on D.

This is a great opportunity to 'buy low' on Texas State.  Everyone will see that they only beat Lamar 34-27 as a 33.5-point favorite last week.  But a deeper dive into the box score shows that this was a much bigger blowout.  They led 18-0 at halftime and took their foot off the gas, likely looking ahead to this huge showdown with UTSA.  They still outgained Lamar 486 to 288, or by nearly 200 yards.

1st-team All-Sun Belt QB Jordan McCloud has transferred in from James Madison.  He went 21-of-30 for 238 yards and 3 touchdowns in the opener.  2nd-team All-American RB Ismail Mahdi is back after rushing for 1,331 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.  He rushed for 156 yards and a score in the opener.  2nd-Team All-Sun Belt WR Joey Hobert is back after catching 76 balls for 895 yards and 8 TD last year for the Bobcats.  He had 6 receptions for 91 yards and 2 TD in the opener.

UTSA returns 14 starters from a team that went 9-4 last season.  But the losses are big for the Roadrunners.  They lose the school's all-time leading passer in QB Frank Harris (11,858 yards) who was the biggest reason for their success over the last five seasons.  They lose their all-time leading receiver in Joseph Cephus (3,639 yards).  They also lose their best defensive player in AAC Defensive Player of the Year Trey Moore, who had 14 sacks last year.

Much more concerning than Texas State's 34-27 win over Lamar was UTSA's lackluster 28-16 win over Kennesaw State as a 23.5-point favorite.  This is Kennesaw State's first season as a FBS member.  They went 3-6 last season at the FCS level and could be the worst team in the FBS this season.  UTSA managed just 76 rushing yards on 34 carries against Kennesaw, averaging a paltry 2.2 yards per carry.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Iowa CBS ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -2.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes own the Iowa State Cyclones.  They have gone 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings and should be more than 2.5-point favorites in Iowa City at home in this rivalry game Saturday.

Iowa returned 18 starters this season.  They have a healthy QB in Cade McNamara to start the season and finally a new offensive coordinator in Tim Lester from Western Michigan.  They have one of the best defenses in the country once again.

The new offense produced 492 total yards in a 40-0 win over Illinois State, which was ranked 19th in FCS coming into the season.  The 492 total yards are their most since 2019.  In fact, the Hawkeyes got 3 receiving touchdowns from their wide receivers, and they had 3 all of last season!

Iowa State was much less impressive in their 21-3 win over North Dakota as a 30-point favorite.  North Dakota was ranked 24th in FCS coming into the season.  This game was much closer than the 18-point margin would indicate.  The Cyclones only outgained the Eagles 353 to 295, or by 58 total yards.  They allowed 174 rushing yards to the Eagles.

Most concerning for the Cyclones was rushing for 86 yards on 22 carries themselves, and if they can't run it against Iowa they have no shot as a one-dimensional passing team.  Iowa State has injuries on the offensive line and at RB that are concerning, plus they are without their two best linebackers in Caleb Bacon and Will McClaughlin, who both finished in the Top 5 in tackles last year.  Bacon is the leader of the defense and was lost against North Dakota, while McClaughlin will miss the first two games at least.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Auburn -12

Hugh Freeze is one of my favorite coaches to back in all of college football.  He turned around Ole Miss and Liberty and now he is going to turn around Auburn.  This is his 2nd season on the job and they are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country after a 6-7 campaign in his first season last year.

Auburn is loaded with 17 returning starters.  The Tigers are off to a great start with a 73-3 beat down of Alabama A&M as a 48-point favorite.  QB Payton Thorne threw 4 touchdown passes and should be much more comfortable in his 2nd season in this system.

California just can't seem to get over the hump under Justin Wilcox and it's surprising he enters his 8th season.  The Golden Bears have finished with a losing record in four consecutive seasons coming in.  They are going to be very overmatched in the talent department against a dynamite recruiter in Freeze and a team from the SEC.

California was very unimpressive in a 31-13 win as a 20.5-point home favorite against UC-Davis in the opener.  In fact, UC-Davis actually outgained California 304 to 281 in what was a very misleading final.  They had 3 turnovers compared to one for California as well.  The Golden Bears also scored on a kickoff return TD.  Cal averaged just 4.3 yards per play against UC-Davis, and that's a bad sign going up against this stout Auburn defense on the road this week.  The Tigers win and cover with room to spare in this one.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Louisville -27

Jeff Brohm is one of my favorite head coaches to back in all of college football.  He wins everywhere he goes.  He dominated at Western Kentucky.  He took Purdue to the Big Ten Championship Game in his final season in 2022.  And now he led Louisville to a 10-4 season and a trip to the ACC Championship Game in his first season in 2023.

Brohm welcomes back 15 starters from that 10-win team.  He brought in former Oregon and Texas Tech transfer Tyler Shough at QB.  He added a pair of stud WR's in Caullin Lacy from South Alabama (1,316 yards LY) and Ja'Corey Brooks from Alabama.  He nabbed three more transfers on the offensive line and has 172 career starts returning up front.

The defense allowed just 21.3 points per game and 317 yards per game last season.  That's the great thing about Brohm is that he's an offensive guy, but his teams always exceed expectations defensively as he doesn't ignore it.  Seven starters return on defense including five of their top seven tacklers.  They add in Cal transfer DE Myles Jernigan, Harvard transfer DT Thor Griffith and UCF transfer CB Corey Thornton.

Louisville opened with a dominant 62-0 win over Austin Peay as a 39.5-point favorite.  They led 59-0 after three quarters before calling off the dogs.  Shough threw 4 touchdown passes, and the defense held them to just 106 total yards in the win.

Jacksonville State delivered a surprising 9-4 campaign in Rich Rodriquez's first season as a FBS member.  But they played one of the softest schedules in the country and took advantage.  Now they have just 9 returning starters losing their QB, their top 3 RB's and their top 2 WR's.  The defense lost 5 of their top 6 tacklers from a year ago.  They are without WR Brannon Spector and RB Ron Wiggins due to injury, both of which were expected to be starters this season.

It was a very concerning 55-27 loss as a 3.5-point favorite against Coastal Carolina that has me on Louisville this week.  Jacksonville State allowed 552 total yards including 294 rushing to what was supposed to be a mediocre Coastal Carolina team.  They managed just 357 yards and 123 rushing themselves, and they are knowing as a running team under Rodriquez.  

Louisville is going to be able to name its number against this Jacksonville State defense and continue piling up the points for four quarters.  The Cardinals have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for this game with nothing to look ahead to.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Illinois +29.5

Notre Dame is in quite the sandwich spot here.  The Fighting Irish are coming off their massive 23-13 upset win at Texas A&M.  They have a road game at Purdue on deck next week, and sandwiched in between is this contest against MAC opponent Northern Illinois.  I expect the Fighting Irish to be flat and to not worry about trying to get margin in this game.

Notre Dame has one of the best defenses in the country, but a suspect offense due to having three freshmen and two sophomores on the offensive line.  They didn't do much against Texas A&M, and they will struggle to even score 28 points in this one, which is going to make it hard to cover this 29.5-point spread.  I love taking big underdogs against defensive-minded teams like Notre Dame.

Northern Illinois went 7-6 last season and is a legit contender to win the MAC this season, so they are no pushover.  The Huskies return 16 starters this season, including eight from a defense that allowed just 21.0 points per game and 320 yards per game a year ago.  This could be the best defense in the MAC.

Northern Illinois was impressive in its 54-15 win over Western Illinois as a 35.5-point favorite.  The Huskies led 41-3 less than two minutes into the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs.  New QB Ethan Hampton went 18-of-20 for 328 yards and 5 TD in the win.  RB Antario Brown rushed for 1,296 yards and 10 TD last year and had 69 yards on 8 carries in the opener.  WR Trayvon Rudolph had 531 receiving yards and 2 TD last year while also rushing for 182 yards and a score.  Rudolph had 4 receptions for 104 yards and 2 rushed for 67 yards and 2 total TD in the win.

Northern Illinois is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games a road underdog.  They have 36 seniors on their roster and upset Boston College on the road last year.  Notre Dame beat Central Michigan 41-17 as a 34-point favorite last year.  They lost 26-21 as a 20-point favorite against Marshall in 2022.  They beat Toledo 32-29 as a 17-point favorite in 2021.  They are notorious for not getting margin against these Group of 5 teams earlier in the season.  Asking them to win by more than 4 TD to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Northern Illinois Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on on Bowling Green +35

Bowling Green is one of the most underrated teams in the country this season and a legit contender to win the MAC.  Scot Loeffler enters his 6th season at Bowling Green coming off a 7-6 campaign.  He has 15 starters back from a team that finished very strong last year.

The Falcons went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six MAC games last year with their lone loss coming against arguably the best team in the MAC in Toledo by a final of 32-31.  They also went on to lose to Big Ten foe Minnesota 30-24 in the Quick Lane Bowl.

Now the Falcons get the opportunity to face another Big Ten opponent in Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are certainly one of the better teams in the country this season, but the Falcons will be the team that is more excited for this game.  Penn State is in a letdown spot off their 34-12 win at West Virginia which proved a lot of naysayers wrong.  They won't be nearly as excited to try and put Bowling Green away by five-plus touchdowns, which is what it would take for them to cover.

The Falcons beat Fordham 41-17 as 15.5-point favorites in their opener.  Terion Stewart rushed for 161 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Falcons rushed for 303 yards as a team.  Stewart average 6.1 yards per carry last season and will be tougher to tame than Penn State bargained for, especially running behind an offensive line that returns eight of their top 10 from last year.  QB Connor Bazelak is back as is leading receiver Harold Fannin.  And this Bowling Green defense is way underrated, allowing 24.0 points and 326 yards per game last season with seven starters back this season.  

The Falcons played Michigan tough last year in a 31-6 loss as 40-point road underdogs.  That's a Michigan team that went on to go 15-0 and win the National Championship.  The Falcons won't be intimidated by Penn State.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Army +4

The Army Black Knights went 6-6 last season but were not invited to a bowl for a 2nd consecutive seasons.  They were extremely motivated in the offseason because of it, and I think the Black Knights are a sleeping giant this season as a result.

This could be one of the best offenses of the Jeff Monken era in his 11th season on the job.  Eight starters return on offense this season including senior QB Bryson Daily.  He threw for 913 yards and 7 TD last season while also rushing for a team-high 901 yards and 7 scores.

Daily and the offense got going in a big way in a 42-7 win over Lehigh as a 32-point favorite in their opener.  They racked up 375 rushing yards including 78 and two touchdowns from Daily.

Florida Atlantic is a team I'm not very high on this year.  Tom Herman went 4-8 in his first season with the Owls last year and brings back just 12 starters this season.  The offense is a mess, and QB Cam Fancher is one of the worst quarterbacks in the country.  It's amazing Herman couldn't recruit someone better than Fancher, who has a 21-to-17 TD/INT ratio and almost zero mobility in 3 years at Marshall before coming here.

FAU is getting too much respect for covering in a 16-10 loss at Michigan State as 12-point underdogs in their opener.  But the Spartans are a rebuilding team with a new head coach after last year's 4-8 disaster.  The Spartans led 16-3 at halftime but didn't score after intermission and have a lot of work to do offensively more than anything.

The Owls managed just 248 total yards against the Spartans.  Fancher was his usual terrible self, completing just 12-of-25 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown with 2 interceptions.  He rushed for 67 yards on 25 carries, an average of 2.7 yards per carry.  It's amazing how much the Owls are relying on this guy for all of their offense.

Now I think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Owls after getting to face a team from the Big Ten and just coming up short.  It's a hangover spot for sure as they won't be nearly as motivated to face Army.  And they won't be looking forward to practicing all week against the triple-option.  Herman has almost no experience facing the triple-option, and the same goes for FAU.  They won't be prepared.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* Packers/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on Philadelphia -2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles already had one of the best offenses in the NFL.  Now they add in RB Saquon Barkley, who is arguably the best RB in the NFL when healthy.  They also traded for Josh Doctson of the Commanders to give them a true No. 3 receiver to compliment arguably the best duo in the entire NFL in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.

The defense was the weakness of the Eagles last year.  They addressed that in the offseason starting with the hiring of Vic Fangio at defensive coordinator.  They signed LB Devin White and S Chancey Gardner-Johnson.  They added two of the top CB's in the draft in the first two rounds in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.

There is a lot of hype surrounding the Green Bay Packers with the way they finished last season.  But I just don't think they are on Philadelphia's level to start this season.  I like Jordan Love and the talented young receivers he has to work with, but they lose dynamic playmaker Aaron Jones and replace him with Josh Jacobs, who has carried a heavy workload with the Raiders and can't do as much as Jones in the receiving game.  His backup in AJ Dillon has been lost for the season, so there's not much depth behind him.

The Packers lost former first-round pick Darnell Savage at safety and LB De'Vondre Campbell, who was one of the best LB's in the NFL.  They nabbed Jeff Hafley from Boston College as their defensive coordinator and have struggled finding a coordinator for years.  They just cut K Anders Carlson shortly before the season, and they could struggle in the kicking game until the find a serviceable replacement.

I have the Eagles at least a FG better than the Packers on a neutral this year, and this game will be played in Brazil on a neutral.  Getting -2.5 is a nice value on them to start the season.  Bet the Eagles Friday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Diamondbacks/Astros OVER 7.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 27-12 in their last 39 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 164 runs in their last 24 games for an average of 6.8 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

Framber Valdez commands a lot of respect from oddsmakers but he is getting too much here.  The Diamondbacks of all teams can get to him.  The Astros will get their offense going against Brandon Pfaadt, who has allowed 13 earned runs and 30 base runners in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.

The OVER is 28-8-1 in Diamondbacks last 37 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 28 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Kansas City Royals -131

I love the spot for the Kansas City Royals tonight.  They had yesterday off and were able to stay at home after being at home in their last series.  Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins just completed a 4-game series in Tampa Bay yesterday and will be a tired team with a tired bullpen with four of their last five games decided by exactly one run.

The Royals have a big advantage on the mound tonight as well.  Cole Ragans is 10-9 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 28 starts this season with 197 K's in 161 1/3 innings.  Ragans has owned the Twins this season, allowing just 5 earned runs in 18 innings with 24 K's in three starts against them in 2024.

Rookie Zeb Matthews is off to a rough start for the Twins.  Matthews is 1-2 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 innings.  Bet the Royals Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles -136

The Baltimore Orioles lead the New York Yankees by 0.5 games in the AL East and have a lot to play for.  The Tampa Bay Rays are all but eliminated from postseason contention and will struggle to be motivated the rest of the way.

I love the fact that the Orioles have the rest advantage over the Rays after having yesterday off, while the Rays were completing a 4-game series against the Twins yesterday.  Their 4-0 comeback attempt came up short in a 4-3 loss, and there could be a hangover effect here.

Dean Kremer has been pretty solid in his last four starts allowing 9 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings without allowing a single homer.  He has owned the Rays of late, allowing one earned run in 11 innings in his last two starts against them.  Baltimore will get to Shane Baz tonight as well.  

Baltimore is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with Tampa Bay with all six wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Orioles Friday.

20* BYU/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 56.5

The BYU Cougars and SMU Mustangs should take part in a shootout Friday night at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX.  The forecast is perfect with temps in the 90's and light winds at game time as both defenses will be worn out in the second half with these hot temps.

SMU is an offensive juggernaut this season and has been for the last five years.  The Mustangs have averaged at least 37.2 points per game for five consecutive seasons.  They put up 38.7 points per game and 454 yards per game last season and brought back eight starters from that team.

QB Prestone Stone is back after completing 60% of his passes for 3,197 yards with a 28-to-6 TD/INT ratio.  Each of his top six receivers are back as are each of the top three running backs.  The Mustangs led 42-7 at halftime against Houston Christian last time out before calling off the dogs in a 59-7 win.  

With this spread sitting at -11 right now, this game is expected to be competitive so SMU will keep the foot on the gas for four quarters.  The Mustangs run one of the fastest tempos in all of college football ranking 4th in seconds per play (20.6) currently.

BYU should be improved offensively in a big way this season.  The Cougars return eight starters on offense.  Kedon Slovis was a major disappointment at QB last year, and backup Jake Retzlaff is ready to take the reigns.  Retzlaff threw for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 41-13 win over Southern Illinois in the opener as a 16.5-point favorite.

Six of the top seven receivers return including Chase Roberts, who had 42 receptions for 573 yards and 5 TD last season.  He had 7 receptions for 108 yards in the opener.  Leading rusher LJ Martin returns after rushing for 518 yards and 4 TD on 4.8 per carry last year.  Martin had 67 rushing yards on 13 carries and a score in the opener.  This is a veteran offensive line as well.

BYU had its worst season in years defensively after joining the Big 12 last season.  The Cougars allowed 29.8 points per game and 418 yards per game.  They only return six starters on defense and lose their top two tacklers.  SMU should be able to name its number on this BYU defense, which allowed 31 or more points eight times last year against mostly Big 12 competition.  The Cougars will have to try and play catch up which will only benefit this OVER 56.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Ravens/Chiefs NFL Season Opener on UNDER 47.5

The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens meet in a rematch from the AFC Championship Game last year.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and these teams have had all offseason to prepare for one another to boot.  Points will be hard to come by as a result.

UNDERS usually dominate in Week 1 of the NFL season with defenses ahead of the offenses.  I expect that to be the case here.  Kansas City beat Baltimore 17-10 in the AFC Championship Game for just 27 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch.

A lot has been made of the improvements the Chiefs have made offensively in the offseason adding Hollywood Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy.  However, Brown has been ruled out with an injury, and I don't expect much from Worthy in his first game in the league.  This Kansas City offense won't be hitting on all cylinders until Brown returns.

Lamar Jackson will be rusty after not seeing any action in the preseason.  The Chiefs have him figured out as well as their Cover 0 scheme is the one he struggles against most.  After making a big mistake by throwing the ball too much against KC in the AFC Championship Game, the Ravens will be looking to pound the rock which is what they are best at.

Both teams have their best chance at success on the ground.  Both defenses are way more vulnerable against the run than they are against the pass.  With so much of this game being played on the ground, there will be fewer clock stoppages.  These were two of the top scoring defenses in the NFL last year and both will be elite again this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Marlins OVER 8

The Philadelphia Phillies have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 4.8 runs per game.  The Miami Marlins have been a dead nuts OVER team this season due to allowing 5.1 runs per game.  They are hitting well of late scoring 4.9 runs per game in their last eight games.

Ranger Suarez just returned from injury after missing a month and has been on a pitch count with just 72 and 78 pitches in his first two starts back from injury.  Suarez allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings to the Braves in his last start.  Suarez allowed 6 earned runs and 12 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Marlins on June 30th.

Adam Oller is getting too much respect here for the Marlins.  Oller is 4-10 with a 6.53 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 18 starts and 13 relief appearances in his career in the big leagues.  He is a pitch to contact pitcher with just 75 K's in 110 1/3 innings.  

The Marlins and Phillies have combined for at least 8 runs in nine of their last 13 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks/Giants OVER 7

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 27-11 in their last 38 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 162 runs in their last 23 games for an average of 7.0 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The San Francisco Giants are improved offensively this season scoring 4.3 runs per game.  They have scored at least 3 runs in 10 of their last 11 games coming in.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between the Diamondbacks and Giants.  They have combined for at least 8 runs in seven of those eight meetings, including 10 runs or more six times.

Merrill Kelly has been a mess since returning from injury for the Diamondbacks.  He was out from April until August.  Kelly has allowed 14 earned runs, 6 homers and 31 base runners in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts.  Kelly has allowed 14 earned runs, 5 homers and 29 base runners in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Giants as well.

No question Blake Snell is one of the best starters in baseball.  But he struggled mightily in his lone start against the Diamondbacks this season, who have the best offense in the league.  Snell allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 2/3 innings of a 17-1 loss to Arizona on April 19th.

The OVER is 28-7-1 in Diamondbacks last 36 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 28 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks/Giants OVER 7.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 26-11 in their last 37 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 156 runs in their last 22 games for an average of 7.1 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The San Francisco Giants are improved offensively this season scoring 4.3 runs per game.  They have scored at least 3 runs in nine of their last 10 games coming in.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between the Diamondbacks and Giants.  They have combined for at least 8 runs in six of those seven meetings, including 10 runs or more five times.

The Diamondbacks are capable of covering this total on their own against Hayden Birdson, who his 3-4 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 11 starts for the Giants this season.  Birdsong has really struggled of late, allowing 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 2/3 innings in his last five starts.

Zac Gallen gets a lot of respect but he has regressed this season with a 3.87 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 23 starts.  He has huge home/road splits in his career, going 30-18 with a 3.01 ERA at home but 19-19 with a 3.63 ERA on the road.  Gallen has allowed 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 26 base runners in 16 innings in his last three starts against San Francisco.

The OVER is 27-7-1 in Diamondbacks last 35 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 27 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Giants/Diamondbacks OVER 7.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 25-11 in their last 36 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 148 runs in their last 21 games for an average of 7.0 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

The San Francisco Giants are improved offensively this season scoring 4.3 runs per game.  They have scored at least 3 runs in eight of their last nine games coming in.  They should do enough against Ryne Nelson, who is 9-6 with a 4.22 ERA in 23 starts this season for the Diamondbacks.

But Arizona should do the heavy lifting today against the Giants, who are likely to make this a bullpen game.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between the Diamondbacks and Giants.  They have combined for at least 8 runs in five of those six meetings, including 10 runs or more four times.  

The OVER is 26-7-1 in Diamondbacks last 34 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 26 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Dodgers/Angels OVER 9

The Los Angeles Dodgers have finally returned to health in their lineup and it is starting to show.  They have scored 6 runs or more in nine of their last 12 games and are now scoring 5.0 runs per game on the season.  They have scored a total of 32 runs in their last four games.

The Dodgers will do the heavy lifting in us cashing this OVER 9 ticket tonight.  They should feast on Reid Detmers, who is 3-6 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Detmers will be making his first start since June 1st and will be on a pitch count.  He allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 1/3 innings of a 10-5 loss to the Dodgers in his last start against them.

The Angels should do their fair share of damage off Walker Buehler, who just hasn't been the same pitcher he was before injury.  Buehler is 1-4 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  His velocity is way down as he has just 39 K's in 49 innings.  

The OVER is 6-0 in Dodgers last six games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all six.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pirates/Cubs OVER 7

The Chicago Cubs are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall to play themselves back into NL Wild Card contention.  They are riding the hottest offense in baseball scoring a total of 102 runs in their last 11 games for an average of 9.3 runs per game.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 8-19 in their last 27 games overall to play themselves out of contention.  This Pittsburgh staff has been atrocious as the Pirates have allowed 60 runs in their last seven games overall for an average of 8.6 runs per game.

It's mind-blowing that the Cubs keep sending Kyle Hendricks out there.  He is 3-10 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 19 starts this season with just 69 K's in 102 2/3 innings.  Hendricks has allowed a whopping 13 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Pirates this season.

Paul Skenes goes for the Pirates but he is on a pitch count as they are close to shutting him down now that they are out of contention.  His pitch count has steadily decreased in his last three starts and he only lasted 5 innings in his last start against the Cubs after 82 pitches.  This Pittsburgh bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball after he departs.

The Pirates and Cubs have combined for at least 8 runs in 14 of their last 16 meetings.  The OVER is 10-1-1 in Cubs last 12 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all 12 games, making for an 12-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 7-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Phillies/Blue Jays Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

The Philadelphia Phillies have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 4.8 runs per game.  They are basically fully healthy right now and potent when that's the case.  The Blue Jays have a great lineup and are healthy, but their pitching staff is one of the worst in baseball, especially their bullpen.

The Phillies should have plenty of success off Chris Bassitt, who is 9-13 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 27 starts for the Blue Jays this season.  Bassitt has allowed 15 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.

The Blue Jays should also have plenty of success against Tyler Phillips, who has allowed 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 innings in his last three starts for a 13.91 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Orioles OVER 8.5

The Orioles beat the White Sox 13-3 in Game 1 yesterday and are more than capable of covering this total on their own in Game 2 as well.  But I expect the White Sox to have plenty of success at the plate in this one.

Cade Povich is 1-7 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 11 starts for the Orioles this season.  He has allowed 41 earned runs, 9 homers and 26 walks in 52 innings.

Nick Nastrini is 0-6 with a 7.04 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in seven starts for the White Sox this season.  He has allowed 24 earned runs, 7 homers and 26 walks in 30 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pirates/Cubs OVER 7.5

The Chicago Cubs are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall to play themselves back into NL Wild Card contention.  They are riding the hottest offense in baseball scoring a total of 99 runs in their last 10 games for an average of 9.9 runs per game.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 7-19 in their last 26 games overall to play themselves out of contention.  This Pittsburgh staff has been atrocious as the Pirates have allowed 57 runs in their last six games overall for an average of 9.5 runs per game.

Jared Jones just returned from the IL and made his first start since July 3rd in a 9-5 loss to the Cubs on August 27th.  Jones allowed 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 8 base runners in 4 innings in that contest.  I expect the hot-hitting Cubs to get to him again.

But the Pirates should do enough off Jameson Taillon to contribute to us cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket.  Taillon has allowed 17 earned runs and 5 homers in 22 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 6.75 ERA.  Taillon has allowed 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 24 base runners in 17 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Pirates.

The Pirates and Cubs have combined for at least 9 runs in 13 of their last 15 meetings.  The OVER is 9-1-1 in Cubs last 11 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all 11 games, making for an 11-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 7.5-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* BC/Florida State ESPN No-Brainer on Boston College +20.5

Note: I released BC +20.5 last Saturday. Still a 20* down to +14.5 but will be graded at +20.5.

The Florida State Seminoles showed their vulnerabilities last year after losing starting QB Jordan Travis to injury.  They only beat Florida 24-15, beat Louisville 16-6 and lost 63-3 to Georgia in their final three games without him.  DJ Uiagalelei is on his 3rd team in 3 years and is a big step down from Travis.

Only five starters return on offense as the Seminoles lose their top three receivers from last year as well as leading rusher Trey Benson.  It's going to take a few games for Uiagalelei to get acclimated to Mike Norvell's offense and all these new playmakers.

Florida State only returns five starters from what was a loaded defense last year.  They lost five starters to the NFL draft including a first, two seconds and a 3rd-round pick.  It's a tall task for this inexperienced defense to try and have to defend a dual-threat QB like Thomas Castellanos in their 2nd game of the season.

I was on Georgia Tech +10.5 over Florida State in Dublin, Ireland.  The Yellow Jackets won outright.  I'm fading Florida State for many of the same reasons, plus a few others.  The trip back from Dublin will mean the Seminoles have spent a few days getting acclimated to the time zone change.  No question they will try to respond off that upset defeat, but they aren't good enough to beat Boston College by three touchdowns or more.

Georgia Tech manhandled Florida State at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  There was nothing fluky about their upset win, and if anything they shouldn't have even needed a last-second field goal to beat the Seminoles.  Florida State's defense has struggled with dual-threat QB's like Haynes King.

Boston College is loaded with 17 returning starters as new head coach Bill O'Brien steps into a great situation.  O'Brien was born in Boston and meant to be a college head coach.  The key is returning QB Thomas Castellanos, who threw for 2,248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year while also rushing for 1,113 yards and 13 scores.

Boston College nearly upset Florida State in a 31-29 loss as 25-point underdogs last season.  The Eagles outgained the Seminoles 457 to 351, or by 106 total yards and should have won outright.  Castellanos went off for 305 passing yards and 95 rushing yards in the loss.  He will have another big game here to keep the revenge-minded Eagles in it for four quarters.  

Rested teams in Week 1 against teams that played in Week 0 have the advantage with film on their opponent who they have been preparing for all offseason.  Teams that played in Week 0 were game planning for a different opponent.  That is evident by the fact that the rested teams in Week 1 playing their first game of the season are 60-34 ATS since 2005 against teams with a game under their belt like Florida State.  Bet Boston College Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 25-10 in their last 35 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 142 runs in their last 20 games for an average of 7.1 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

The Dodgers have finally returned to health in their lineup and it is starting to show.  They have scored 6 runs or more in eight of their last 11 games and are now scoring 5.0 runs per game on the season.

Eduardo Rodriquez will be making just his 5th start of the season for the Diamondbacks.  He faces the Guardians, Rockies and Marlins in his first three starts and fared decent.  But then he stepped up in class against the Mets last time out and allowed 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings.  Rodriquez now faces his toughest task of the season against the Dodgers.  He has allowed 9 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Los Angeles.

Jack Flaherty hasn't exactly been dominant since getting traded to the Dodgers.  He has allowed 11 earned runs, 6 homers and 30 base runners in 22 1/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.  Flaherty has allowed 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 24 base runners in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Diamondbacks as well.

The OVER is 25-7-1 in Diamondbacks last 33 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 25 of them.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks with 10 or more combined runs in eight of them, including 19, 14, and 17 combined runs in the first three games of this series.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* LSU/USC ABC No-Brainer on USC +4.5

The USC Trojans are going to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  Lincoln Riley has always been able to coach up an offense with several Heisman Trophy winners coming from his offenses at quarterback.  But he has neglected defense up to this point, until now.

Riley made one of the best hires of the offseason by bringing in defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn from crosstown rival UCLA.  His defense thrived last year and actually held USC to a season-low in points.  Not to mention, Riley was able to bring in two-time FCS national championship winning head coach Matt Entz from North Dakota State to be the linebackers coach and help out with the defense.

With nine starters back on defense and a ton of talent, I trust Lynn and Entz to get the most out of this unit.  This could be the best defense Riley has ever had.  And I trust his offense enough that I'm not worried about them returning just five starters on offense.  QB Miller Moss threw 6 touchdown passes against Louisville in the bowl game and is ready to be the next Heisman Trophy candidate.  Riley believes this is his most talented offensive line in his three years here as well.

Speaking of Heisman Trophy winners, LSU had to part ways with Jayden Daniels, who threw for 3,812 yards with a 40-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 1,134 yards and 10 TD last year.  He is simply irreplaceable, and I"m not a big fan of his replacement in Garrett Nussmeier, who has completed less than 60% of his passes in his three years here.  The Tigers lose two NFL receivers in Malik Nabers (89 receptions, 1,569 yards, 14 TD) and Brian Thomas (68, 1,177, 17 TD) to the draft.

LSU allowed 28.0 points per game and 417 yards per game last season.  Only six starters are back on defense, and this unit is a big question mark again heading into 2024.  Brian Kelly brought in defensive coordinator Blake Baker from Missouri, but that's not nearly as big of an upgrade as USC.  The Tigers also lost their offensive coordinator in Mike Denbrock to Notre Dame.

This game will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.  It's a short drive for USC fans and they will have the home-field advantage.  I think they are the better team and should not be underdogs in this opener as well.  Lincoln Riley is 38-4 SU in the first six games of the season, including a perfect 12-0 at USC.  Bet USC Sunday.

20* NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 24-10 in their last 34 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 128 runs in their last 19 games for an average of 6.7 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

The Dodgers have finally returned to health in their lineup and it is starting to show.  They have scored 6 runs or more in eight of their last 10 games and are now scoring 5.0 runs per game on the season.

Justin Wrobleski is 1-1 with a 4.68 ERA in five starts this season with 7 homers allowed in 25 innings.  Brandon Pfaadt is 8-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 26 starts this season.  Pfaadt has allowed 14 earned runs and 3 homers in 17 innings in his last three starts coming in.

The OVER is 24-7-1 in Diamondbacks last 32 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 24 of them.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks with 10 or more combined runs in seven of them, including 19 and 14 combined runs in the first two games of this series.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-121)

The Baltimore Orioles are 1.5 behind the New York Yankees for 1st place in the AL East with a lot to play for over the final month of the season.  They should be bigger favorites on the Run Line against the Colorado Rockies, who are 51-86 this season and one of the worst teams in baseball.

The Orioles have a big advantage on the mound over the Rockies today.  Zach Eflin is 9-7 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  Eflin has allowed just 3 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  Eflin has allowed just 5 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Rockies despite pitching at Coors Field in two of them.

Ty Blach is 3-6 with a 6.36 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 10 starts and eight relief appearances for the Rockies this season.  Blach has allowed 13 homers and 45 earned runs with only 34 K's in 63 2/3 innings this season.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Sunday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -1.5 (-104)

The New York Mets are trying to chase down the Atlanta Braves in the NL wild card race.  They cannot afford to take the Chicago White Sox lightly and they haven't.  The White Sox are 31-106 this season and setting records for being the worst team in baseball.

Sean Manaea is 10-5 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 26 starts this season and one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts and will extend that streak to eight today.

Chicago ace Garrett Crochet gets the ball today.  But the White Sox are close to shutting him down as they have pulled him after 4 innings in nine consecutive starts now.  That means the Mets will get to batter this awful Chicago bullpen for at least 5 innings, and that should be enough to win this game by multiple runs.  Bet the Mets on the Run Line Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -115

The Chicago Cubs are 8-1 in their last nine games overall to play themselves back into NL Wild Card contention.  They are riding the hottest offense in baseball scoring a total of 85 runs in their last nine games for an average of 9.4 runs per game.

Jordan Wicks is 1-2 with a 4.18 ERA in six starts and one relief appearance for the Cubs this season.  He'll be opposed by Mitchell Parker, who is 7-8 with a 4.26 ERA in 24 starts for the Nationals this season.  Parker has allowed 12 earned runs, 3 homers and 25 base runners in 14 innings in his last three starts coming in.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

20* Dodgers/DBacks NL West No-Brainer on OVER 9

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 24-9 in their last 33 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 122 runs in their last 18 games for an average of 6.8 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

The Dodgers have finally returned to health in their lineup and it is starting to show.  They have scored 6 runs or more in seven of their last nine games and are now scoring 5.0 runs per game on the season.

It has been a rough return from injury for Merrill Kelly, who has allowed 12 earned runs and 25 base runners in 16 innings in his three starts since returning from the IL.  Kelly has allowed 7 earned runs and 20 base runners in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers.

Gavin Stone pitches too much to contact and the Diamondbacks should get after him.  Stone has allowed 8 earned runs, 2 homers and 19 base runners in 9 innings in two starts against Arizona in 2024.

The OVER is 23-7-1 in Diamondbacks last 31 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 23 of them.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks with 10 or more combined runs in six of them, including 19 combined runs yesterday.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -151

The Baltimore Orioles are one game behind the New York Yankees for 1st place in the AL East with a lot to play for over the final month of the season.  They should be closer to -200 favorites today against the Colorado Rockies, who are 50-86 this season and one of the worst teams in baseball.

I like what I've seen from Dean Kremer here of late.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs without a single homer in 18 innings in his last three starts against the Astros, Mets and Nationals.  I expect him to hold the Rockies in check today.

The Orioles should hang a big number on Ryan Feltner, who is 1-10 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 24 starts for the Rockies this season.  This is a big step up in class for him here after getting to face the Giants (twice), Marlins, Angels and Mets in his last five starts.  The Orioles are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season with one of the best offenses in baseball.  Bet the Orioles Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Texas A&M ABC No-Brainer on Texas A&M -3

Jimbo Fisher recruited some of the best talent in the country to College Station but he just didn't know how to get the most out of it.  In steps Mike Elko, who is knowing for getting the most out of his talent on hand.  He showed that at Duke doing a remarkable job there the last two years.  And he is familiar with Texas A&M considering he was the defensive coordinator here from 2018 to 2021.

Elko inherits all that talent that Fisher left behind with 18 returning starters.  He believes this is the most talented defense he has ever coached which is saying a lot.  The offense is also loaded and QB Conner Weigman has been great when healthy.  He completed 69% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio last year while also rushing for a pair of touchdowns.

Notre Dame has gotten a lot of hype this offseason as a playoff contender due to a pretty easy schedule by their standards.  But things have not gone according to plan in the offseason.  The Fighting Irish will be starting three freshmen and two starters along the offensive line after Joe Alt was taken 5th in the NFL Draft.  They lost his replacement in Charles Jagusah to a torn pec in early August.

Notre Dame has the talent defensively to match that of Texas A&M, but the key advantage the Aggies have with their uber-talented defensive line up against this young Notre Dame offensive line will be the difference in this game.  Also, Elko will have the advantage knowing ND QB Riley Leonard's strengths and weaknesses after coaching him at Duke and will scheme it up to stop him.

Notre Dame's last win as a road underdog of +3 or higher came all the way back in 2012.  The Fighting Irish have come up short time and time again in these big road games.  College Station is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and this will be a rowdy crowd for a Saturday night game with fans excited about the new regime led by Elko and company.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Nationals OVER 9

The Chicago Cubs are 7-1 in their last eight games overall to play themselves back into NL Wild Card contention.  They are riding the hottest offense in baseball scoring a total of 80 runs in their last eight games for an average of 10.0 runs per game.

Rookie DJ Herz is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.  He is 2-6 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  This may be his tallest task of the season trying to tame this red-hot Chicago lineup.

Javier Assad is very fortunate to have a 3.15 ERA this season when he has a 1.34 WHIP and pitches to contact.  The Nationals have scored 4 runs or more in four of their last five, and 5 runs or more in five of their last nine and will do enough today to contribute to us cashing this OVER ticket.

The OVER is 8-0-1 in Cubs last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -105

The Chicago Cubs are 7-1 in their last eight games overall to play themselves back into NL Wild Card contention.  They are riding the hottest offense in baseball scoring a total of 80 runs in their last eight games for an average of 10.0 runs per game.

Javier Assad has been the model of consistency for the Cubs allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts coming in.  Assad is now 6-4 with a 3.15 ERA in 24 starts this season.

Rookie DJ Herz is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.  He is 2-6 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  This may be his tallest task of the season trying to tame this red-hot Chicago lineup.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -2.5

Most are quick to dismiss Northwestern's 8-5 season last year.  Pat Fitzgerald was let go shortly before the season and defensive coordinator David Braun took over.  They were coming off a 1-11 season to boot and had just 11 starters back last year.

Players bought into Braun and delivered their first 8-win season since 2018.  They upset Minnesota, Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois and Utah.  They continue to get no respect as 2.5-point home favorites over Miami Ohio from the MAC in the opener.

This despite the fact that Northwestern returns 15 starters from that 8-5 team.  They return eight starters on defense from a unit that allowed 22.5 points per game, and they should be just as good if not better defensively this season.

The offense returns seven starters and didn't get the best play from starting QB Ben Bryant, so losing him isn't that big of a loss.  They have plenty of capable replacements, including Vanderbilt transfer Mike Wright, who had a 21-11 TD/INT ratio and 902 rushing yards (5.2/carry) in his three seasons as a Commodore.

Miami Ohio is the team getting credit for winning the MAC last year with a school-record 11 wins.  This despite outgaining MAC opponents by just 10 yards per game with an 8-1 record. They were simply fortunate in close games, and a big reason why was Groza Award winner Graham Nicholson.  But their star kicker left for Alabama in the transfer portal, and not having him is a bigger loss than is being factored in to this team's projections.

Miami returns just 12 starters overall.  They lose their leading rusher and leading receiver, and they lose six of their top 10 tacklers on defense.  They lost 38-3 to the Miami Hurricanes in their opener last year, and that was just a 7-6 Miami team.  This is a big step up in class for the Redhawks having to face a team from the Big Ten in their opener again.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Nebraska -27

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  In Matt Rhule I trust.  He is a program builder, and he will have the Huskers going bowling for the first time since 2016.  Rhule went 2-10, 6-6, 10-4 and then 10-4 in his four years at Temple.  He went 1-11, 7-6 and then started 10-1 in his three seasons at Baylor.

Rhule has 17 starters back this season.  Eight starters return to an elite defense that allowed just 18.3 points per game last season.  The Huskers have one of the best defensive lines in the country leading the way.  They can rely on this defense to be competitive in every game.

But the real excitement comes on offense, where nine starters return and they add in the 2nd-rated QB in the entire country in 5-star prospect Dylan Raiola.  He lit it up in the Spring Game and is the real deal.  Raiola gives the Huskers hope, and he has a solid offensive line and receivers in front of him.They added Jahmal Banks from Wake Forest and Isaiah Neyor from Wyoming as two very good weapons outside.

UTEP is going to be one of the worst teams in the country this season.  The Miners are rebuilding under first-year head coach Scotty Walden, who comes over from Austin Peay.  He brought with him 10 players from Austin Peay, and this is going to be a wide awakening for these players from playing FCS talent to FBS talent.

Only nine starters are back from last year's team that finished 3-9.  QB Cade McConnell is back to lead the offense after completing just 53.5% of his passes with a 6-to-4 TD/INT ratio last year.  They lose their top three receivers including Kelly Akharaiyi, who had 48 receptions for 1,033 yards and 7 touchdowns last year.  Each of their top three rushers are gone.  All five starters are gone on the offensive line.  Each of the top three tacklers on defense departed, including LB Tyrice Knight (140 tackles, 15.5 for loss).

Nebraska fans finally have something to look forward to with Rhule, QB Raiola and these 17 returning starters this year.  These players want to make a statement in Week 1 and show that they are for real this season and not just hype.  They will keep pouring on the points, thus I'm willing to lay the -27.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado State +32.5

Jay Norvell is entering Year 3 at Colorado State.  Year 3 is when coaches usually make their biggest impact because they have most of their players in place.  Norvell did a tremendous job turning around Nevada and leading them to four bowl games.  He will do the same at Colorado State.

Norvell now has most of his players in place and 14 returning starters that are accustomed to his systems.  The offense is loaded with QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and WR Tory Horton playing behind what will be a drastically improved offensive line from Year 1.  Fowler-Nicolosi completed 62.1% of his passes for 3,460 yards and 22 touchdowns last year.  Horton had 96 receptions for 1,136 yards and 8 TD last year and is one of the best receivers in the country.

This Colorado State defense figures to improve a lot as well with seven starters back from a unit that gave up 29.6 points per game last year.  They they led by first-team All-MWC SS Jack Howell (114 tackles last year) and 2nd-team All-MWC LB Chase Wilson (107 tackles last year).  Colorado State took Colorado to double-OT on the road last year, and they also upset Boise State at home.

The Texas Longhorns made the four-team playoff last year and expectations are very high for them.  With those expectations come inflated lines, and I think that is the case here in Week 1.  That's especially the case with the Longhorns having a huge game on deck against Michigan next week, and they could easily be looking ahead to that game.  At the very least they will be looking to get their starters out in the 2H to keep them healthy for it.

Texas will be without its top two RB's in Baxter and Clark for this one after losing leading rusher Jonathon Brooks (1,139 yards, 10 TD) from last year.  The Longhorns also lose their top four receivers from a year ago.  I don't expect Quinn Ewers to be in sync with all his new playmakers to start the season.  I think this Rams defense can hold the Longhorns in check enough to stay within the number as a result.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* Clemson/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Clemson +14

The Clemson Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the country heading into 2024.  The Tigers went 9-4 last season and failed to win 10 games for the first time since 2010, which was Dabo Swinney's 2nd year here.

In Clemson's four losses last year, they held a 94-60 edge in first downs over their opponents and easily could have won all four.  They haven't been this big of an underdog for a very long time, which just goes to show how underrated they are heading into the season.

Swinney has shunned the transfer portal and recruited within, therefore the team chemistry should be as good as any team in the country.  The Tigers have 14 starters back including nine on offense, and this should be one of the most improved offenses in the country.  Former top recruit Cade Klubnik came into his own at the end of last season and is primed for a monster junior season.  He returns his top receiver, top RB and four starters along the offensive line.

Clemson always has an elite defense and that won't change this season.  They allowed 21.1 points per game and 288 yards per game last season.  They have five starters back, but the six new starters all saw significant time last year, and there won't be a drop off in production.  Seven of the 11 starters were all ranked at the Top 15 at their position coming out of high school.

Georgia is the new king of college football.  But with the hype comes expectations that are hard to live up to.  That was evident last year when the Bulldogs went 13-1 SU but just 5-8-1 ATS.  You are consistently paying a premium to back the No. 1 ranked team in the country.

Georgia has three players that are facing suspension for the opener including their top two running backs.  Leading returning tackler LB Smael Mondon is also facing a possible suspension.  They lost three of their top four receivers and their top two rushers from last year already.  If Mondon doesn't go, they will be without five of their top seven tacklers from last year as well.

The talent discrepancy here isn't big enough to warrant Georgia being favored by two touchdowns on a neutral field over a fellow national title contender in Clemson.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

20* Dodgers/DBacks NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 24-8 in their last 32 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 113 runs in their last 17 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.

The Dodgers have finally returned to health in their lineup and it is starting to show.  They have scored 6 runs or more in six of their last eight games and are now scoring 4.9 runs per game on the season.

The OVER is 22-7-1 in Diamondbacks last 30 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 22 of them.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks with 10 or more combined runs in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona Diamondbacks +118

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 24-8 in their last 32 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 113 runs in their last 17 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.

Now they get to host the Dodgers to try and gain more ground on them.  I like their chances of upsetting the Dodgers in Game 1 tonight due to their advantage on the mound.  Zach Gallen has huge home/road splits and has been dominant at home.  Gallen is 30-18 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 68 career homes starts.

Clayton Kershaw allowed 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings to the light-hitting Rays in his last start.  Kershaw allowed 6 earned runs in 1/3 of an inning in a 11-2 loss to the Diamondbacks in his last start against them.  He has now allowed 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Diamondbacks Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -130

The Baltimore Orioles should be much bigger favorites over the Colorado Rockies tonight.  They have big advantages on the mound and at the plate and should be much closer to -200.

Albert Suarez is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has gone 6-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 102 innings for the Orioles this season.  Suarez has allowed just 2 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.

Austin Gomber is 4-9 with a 4.70 ERA in 25 starts for the Rockies this season.  He has allowed a whopping 26 homers in those 25 starts.  The ball will be flying out tonight in Coors Field with temps in the 80's and light winds blowing out to left, which is bad news for Gomber.  Bet the Orioles Friday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Royals/Astros OVER 7.5

The Kansas City Royals are scoring 4.9 runs per game this season.  They have scored a total of 23 runs in their last four games.  The Astros are scoring 4.6 runs per game this season.  They have scored 16 runs in their last two games and have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last 11 games.

Seth Lugo has really faltered of late for the Royals.  He has allowed 18 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings in his last four starts.  Lugo has allowed 12 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Astros as well.

Framber Valdez consistently gets too much respect from oddsmakers.  He allowed 6 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 7-5 loss to the Royals in his last start against them.

The Astros and Royals have combined for at least 8 runs in seven of their last nine meetings, including 11 runs or more five times.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CFB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma -42

For starters, Week 1 favorites of -37 or more who are playing another FBS team are 16-0-1 ATS over the last handful of seasons.  These big spreads scare off bettors, and I'm usually taking the points with spreads this high, but not in this game.

Oklahoma makes the move to the SEC and is loaded this season.  The Sooners want to make a statement in their first game as a member of the SEC to prove they belong.  They will make that statement against arguably the worst team in all of college football in Temple.

The Sooners return 15 starters this season.  They are loaded defensively eight starters and nine of their top 10 tacklers back from a unit that allowed just 23.5 points per game this season.  It took a few years for head coach Brent Venables, the legendary DC at Clemson, to get his players in place.  But now this is going to be one of the top defenses in the country led by amazing LB's and DB's.  Temple may not score a single points.

Dillon Gabriel has taken the bag at Oregon and is the Heisman Trophy favorite.  However, Oklahoma had star QB Jackson Arnold waiting in the wings.  He flashed his talents in the bowl game and this team believes in him.  Seven starters return on offense and while they will have a hard time matching last year's 41.7 points per game and 507 yards per game, this will still be one of the top offenses in the country.  They return four of their top five receivers and their leading rusher, plus add in WR Deion Burks from Purdue.

Oklahoma beat Arkansas State 73-0 to open last season, and that was a quality Red Wolves team from the Sun Belt.  The Sooners beat Tulsa 66-17 on the road last year in their 3rd game of the season, and the Golden Hurricane are a fellow AAC team that was much better than Temple is going to be this year.

Temple went 3-9 last season with wins over Akron, Norfolk State and Navy.  They lost by 29 to Rutgers and by 34 to Miami in the non-conference.  After having 15 starters back last season, 3rd-year head coach Stan Drayton has just 10 starters back this season and will be even worse.

The big loss is QB EJ Warner, who was the only player keeping this team alive last year.  He threw for 3,076 yards with a 23-to-12 TD/INT ratio and has transferred to Rice to take over the starting job there.  They lose their top two receivers, their leading rushers and three starters along the offensive line including a 1st-team All-AAC selection.

Temple allowed 35.7 points per game and 442 yards per game last season.  The Owls lose nine of their top 10 tacklers from last year and will be even worse on defense.  Oklahoma can name its number on this defense, and I expect the Sooners to top 50 points in this one which is all it's going to take to cover -42.  Bet Oklahoma Friday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Orioles/Dodgers OVER 9

Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Los Angeles tonight.  These are two of the best offenses in baseball with the Orioles scoring 5.0 runs per game and the Dodgers scoring 4.9 runs per game as well.

The Dodgers have finally returned to health in their lineup and it is starting to show.  They have scored 6 runs or more in five of their last seven games despite facing the Mariners and Rays, which both have good staffs.

Two gas cans go tonight on the mound so this total should be higher.  Cade Povich is 1-6 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.62 WHIP In 10 starts for the Orioles this season with just 34 K's in 48 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 9 homers, 25 walks and 33 earned runs in those 48 2/3 innings.

Bobby Miller is 1-3 with a 7.49 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in nine starts for the Dodgers this season.  He has allowed 33 earned runs, 11 homers and 69 base runners in 39 2/3 innings this season.

The Orioles and Dodgers have combined for at least 10 runs in seven of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Mets/Diamondbacks OVER 8

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 24-7 in their last 30 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 111 runs in their last 16 games for an average of 6.9 runs per game.

David Peterson is a big regression candidate here down the stretch.  He has a 2.85 ERA this season but just 66 K's in 85 1/3 innings and pitches too much to contact to have that low of an ERA.  Peterson has allowed 6 earned runs and 15 base runners in 10 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Arizona.

Ryne Nelson is 9-6 with a 4.29 ERA in 22 starts for the Diamondbacks this season.  He also pitches to contact with 108 K's in 130 innings.  Nelson does not enjoy facing the Mets, allowing a whopping 13 earned runs and 4 homers in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them.

The OVER is 22-6-1 in Diamondbacks last 29 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 22 of them.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 13, 11, 9, 15 and 19 combined runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on Padres/Cardinals OVER 7.5

Temps will be in the 90's with light winds blowing out to left in St. Louis and the ball should be flying out this afternoon.  The first two games of this series saw 11 and 12 combined runs before settling for 7 runs in Game 3 in a walk off by the Cardinals.  I think we get 8-plus today in the series finale.

Michael King is one of the biggest regression candidates down the stretch because he had never pitched more than 105 innings in any season before throwing 146 1/3 innings thus far this season.  I question how well he'll handle this workload the rest of the way.

Sonny Gray is one of the most overrated starters in baseball, and he is showing signs of wearing down of late.  Gray has allowed 13 earned runs, 6 homers and 26 base runners in 16 innings in his last three starts.  The Padres are capable of covering this total on their own.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Orioles/Dodgers MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles tonight.  These are two of the best offenses in baseball with the Orioles scoring 5.0 runs per game and the Dodgers scoring 4.9 runs per game as well.

The Dodgers have finally returned to health in their lineup and it is starting to show.  They have scored 6 runs or more in four of their last six games coming in despite facing the Mariners and Rays, which both have good staffs.

Corbin Burnes is going through his worst stretch of the season for the Orioles.  He has allowed 20 earned runs and 36 base runners in 20 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 8.71 ERA.

The Dodgers keep throwing Walker Buehler out there hoping he returns to form.  It keeps backfiring as Buehler is 1-4 with a 6.09 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 10 starts for the Dodgers this season.  He has allowed 30 earned runs and 11 homers in 44 1/3 innings this season.

The Orioles and Dodgers have combined for at least 10 runs in six of their last eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Mets/DBacks NL No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 23-7 in their last 30 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 103 runs in their last 15 games for an average of 6.9 runs per game.

Luis Severino is an absolute gas can for the Mets.  He has allowed 15 earned runs and 5 homers in 27 innings in his last five starts coming in.  Severino allowed 4 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 10-9 win over the Diamondbacks in his lone start against them this season.

Eduardo Rodriquez is working his way back from injury and has been on a pitch count.  He will be making just his 4th start of the season.  He'll be facing a very good Mets lineup that scores 4.8 runs per game this season.  This is a big step up in class for him after facing the Marlins, Rockies and Guardians in his first three starts. 

The OVER is 21-6-1 in Diamondbacks last 28 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 21 of them.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 11, 9, 15 and 19 combined runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Padres/Cardinals NL No-Brainer on OVER 8

Temps will be in the 90's tonight in St. Louis and the ball should be flying out tonight in what should be a high-scoring affair as these two lineups crush these two starting pitchers.  The first two games of this series saw 11 and 12 combined runs, and it should be more of the same tonight.

Joe Musgrove is 4-4 with a 4.43 ERA in 13 starts for the Padres this season.  Andre Pallante is 6-6 with a 3.84 ERA in 14 starts and nine relief appearances for the Cardinals this season.  Both starters are getting too much respect with this total set at only 8 runs tonight given the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Orioles/Dodgers OVER 8.5

Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles tonight.  These are two of the best offenses in baseball with the Orioles scoring 5.0 runs per game and the Dodgers scoring 5.0 runs per game as well.

The Dodgers have finally returned to health in their lineup and it is starting to show.  They have scored 6 runs or more in four of their last five games coming in despite facing the Mariners and Rays, which both have good staffs.

The Dodgers will tee off on Cole Irvin, who is 6-5 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.41 WHIP for the Orioles this season.  Irvin has allowed 28 earned runs and 9 homers in 30 2/3 innings in his last nine outings for a 8.22 ERA.

Jack Flaherty hasn't exactly been dominant since getting traded to the Dodgers.  He has allowed 8 earned runs, 4 homers and 22 base runners in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in despite getting to face the Mariners and Pirates.  

The Orioles and Dodgers have combined for at least 10 runs in six of their last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Mets/Diamondbacks NL No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 23-6 in their last 29 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 100 runs in their last 14 games for an average of 7.1 runs per game.

Sean Manaea has allowed at least 3 runs in three consecutive starts coming into this one despite facing the Mariners and Marlins, two of the worst lineups in baseball.  This is a big step up in class for Manaea here.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 10-5 loss to the Diamondbacks in his lone start against them this season.

Eduardo Rodriquez is working his way back from injury and has been on a pitch count.  He will be making just his 4th start of the season.  He'll be facing a very good Mets lineup that scores 4.8 runs per game this season.  This is a big step up in class for him after facing the Marlins, Rockies and Guardians in his first three starts.  

The OVER is 20-6-1 in Diamondbacks last 27 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 20 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Padres/Cardinals NL No-Brainer on OVER 8

It's going to be approaching 100 degrees in St. Louis tonight with light winds blowing out to center.  The ball should be flying out tonight in what should be a high-scoring affair as these two lineups crush these two starting pitchers.

The Padres are capable of covering this total on their own against Miles Mikolas, who is 8-10 with a 5.19 ERA in 26 starts this season.  Mikolas has allowed 14 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.

Dylan Cease has regressed since throwing a no-hitter.  He has allowed 11 runs, 7 earned, and 26 base runners in 17 innings in his last three starts.  Cease allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start against the Cardinals.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New York Yankees -1.5 (-140)

The Yankees are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season and have scored a total of 39 runs in their last seven games for an average of 5.6 runs per game.  They are basically as healthy as they have been all season in their lineup and it is showing.

Speaking of healthy, Gerrit Cole finally has returned to form after battling injury earlier this season.  Cole has allowed just one earned run in 17 1/3 innings with 20 K's in his last three starts for a minuscule 0.52 ERA.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts against the Nationals as well.

The Yankees have a big advantage on the mound with Cole over Patrick Corbin, who is one of the worst starters in baseball.  Corbin is 3-12 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 26 starts for the Nationals this season.  He has allowed 21 earned runs and 5 homers in 23 1/3 innings in his last five starts coming in.  He has allowed 6 homers in 18 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Yankees.  

The Yankees are 5-1 in their last six games overall with all five wins coming by 3 runs or more.  The Nationals are 4-8 in their last 12 games and have scored 2 runs or fewer seven times.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* Astros/Phillies Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

Two hot offenses square off in this series between the Phillies and Astros.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center, so the ball should be flying out in Game 2 in Philadelphia tonight.

The Astros have scored at least 5 runs in five of their last eight games overall and are scoring 4.6 runs per game on the season.  The Phillies are scoring 4.9 runs per game on the season after scoring a total of 25 runs in their last three games coming in.

Justin Verlander will be making his 2nd start back from injury since June 9th and will be on a pitch count.  Verlander has allowed 6 earned runs and 16 base runners in 10 innings in his last two starts against the Phillies.

Aaron Nola has allowed 23 homers in 26 starts this season as giving up the long ball has been his issue.  Nola has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Astros.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Cubs/Pirates NL Central No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Cubs and Pirates tonight.  Temperatures will be in the 90's with light winds blowing out to center, so the ball should be flying out.

The Cubs have scored a total of 50 runs in their last five games for an average of 10.0 runs per game.  The Pirates have scored a total of 27 runs in their last five games for an average of 5.4 runs per game.

Jared Jones will be making his first start since July 3rd and will be on a pitch count.  This Pirates bullpen got battered for 16 runs by the Cubs yesterday and will be short-handed.

Justin Steele has allowed 16 earned runs and 5 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Pirates, who have just had his number.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Cubs -113

The Cubs have scored a total of 50 runs in their last five games for an average of 10.0 runs per game.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now, and they have the advantage on the mound over the Pirates tonight as well.

Justin Steele is 4-5 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 21 starts for the Cubs this season.  He is in the midst of his best stretch of the year, allowing just 4 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings with 27 K's in his last four starts.

Jared Jones will be making his first start since July 3rd and will be on a pitch count.  This Pirates' bullpen got battered for 16 runs by the Cubs yesterday and will be short-handed.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Padres/Cardinals OVER 9

It's going to be approaching 100 degrees in St. Louis tonight with light winds blowing out to left-center.  The ball should be flying out tonight in what should be a high-scoring affair as these two lineups crush these two below-average starting pitchers.

Randy Vasquez is 3-6 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 17 starts for the Padres this season with just 53 K's in 81 2/3  innings.  Kyle Gibson is 7-5 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 24 starts for the Cardinals this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Nationals OVER 9

Temps will be approaching 90 in Washington tonight and the ball should be flying out.  I'll gladly back the OVER in a matchup between two starting pitchers that I'm just not that fond of.

Mitchell Parker has allowed 10 earned runs, 2 homers and 18 base runners in 10 innings in his last two starts.  Now he must face a potent Yankees lineup that is about as healthy as they have been all season.  The Yankees are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season and have scored a total of 34 runs in their last six games.

The Nationals have scored at least 5 runs in four of their last seven games.  They should do some damage against Nestor Cortes, who is 7-10 with a 4.00 ERA in 26 starts for the Yankees this season.  Cortes has allowed 24 earned runs in 37 1/3 innings in his last seven starts for a 5.79 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Astros/Phillies Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

Two hot offenses square off in this series between the Phillies and Astros.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to right-center, so the ball should be flying out in Game 1 in Philadelphia tonight.

The Astros have scored at least 5 runs in five of their last seven games overall and are scoring 4.6 runs per game on the season.  The Phillies are scoring 4.9 runs per game on the season after scoring a total of 22 runs in their last two games coming in.

The Phillies are capable of covering this total on their own against Ronel Blanco, who allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 3 2/3 innings to the Red Sox in his last start.  Regression has really hit Blanco hard in recent starts.

I think the Astros will do enough off of Zack Wheeler to contribute to cashing this OVER 8 ticket.  Wheeler has allowed 12 earned runs and 6 homers in 31 innings in his last five starts coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Royals OVER 9

Temps will be in the 90's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left field today at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City.  The ball will be flying out of the park again today.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 11 or more combined runs in all five. 

The Royals are scoring 4.9 runs per game this season while the Phillies are scoring 4.8 runs per game.  These are two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Royals have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last eight games overall.  The Phillies just hung 11 runs on the Royals yesterday.

Kolby Allard is 10-24 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in his career in the big leagues.  Regression has hit Seth Lugo hard lately.  Lugo has allowed 20 earned runs in 30 2/3 innings in his last five starts for a 5.87 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Titans/Saints NFLX No-Brainer on Tennessee -4.5

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Diamondbacks/Red Sox OVER 9.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 5.4 runs per game this season.  They have scored a total of 93 runs in their last 13 games for an average of 7.2 runs per game.  The OVER is 19-6-1 in Diamondbacks last 26 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 19 of them.

The Boston Red Sox are a dead nuts OVER team, going 23-8-1 OVER in their last 32 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 25 of those 32 games.  The Red Sox are scoring 4.9 runs per game this season and they have one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

Merrill Kelly will be making his 3rd start back from injury.  He was shaky in his first two allowing 8 earned runs and 15 base runners in 10 innings to the Rays and Phillies.  I don't expect it to go much better for him today at hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

Regression has hit Tanner Houck hard since being named an All-Star.  Houck has allowed 26 earned runs in 49 1/3 innings in his last nine starts for a 4.74 ERA.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings in his lone career start against Arizona.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Rays/Dodgers OVER 7.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers are back to near full strength offensively and one of the best offenses in baseball when that's the case.  They have scored a total of 21 runs in their last three games and will do the heavy lifting tonight in us cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket.

The Tampa Bay Rays have gone 5-1 in their last six games and have scored at least 4 runs in four of them.  They will do enough against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers to get this OVER 7.5 ticket home.

Kershaw has been on a pitch count and this Dodgers bullpen will be tested today.  Kershaw allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start against the Rays.  But Taj Bradley has struggled lately for the Rays, allowing 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 20 innings in his last four starts for a 8.10 ERA.

Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center to aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Phillies/Royals Interleague No-Brainer on OVER 9

The Royals are scoring 4.9 runs per game this season while the Phillies are scoring 4.8 runs per game.  These are two of the best offenses in baseball.  With temps in the 90's and 13 MPH winds blowing out to left in Kansas City tonight, the ball should be flying out of the park.

The Royals have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last seven games overall.  Ranger Suarez returns from the IL today and hasn't pitched since July 22nd.  He will be on a pitch count.  Suarez has allowed 18 earned runs in 21 innings in his last four starts coming in.

Brady Singer has allowed 10 earned runs and 27 base runners in 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts for the Royals.  I expect the Phillies to get their bats going against him today to help contribute to us cashing this OVER ticket.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 11 or more combined runs in all four.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* DBacks/Red Sox Interleague No-Brainer on OVER 9.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  They have scored a total of 89 runs in their last 12 games for an average of 7.4 runs per game.  The OVER is 19-5-1 in Diamondbacks last 25 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 19 of them.

The Boston Red Sox are a dead nuts OVER team, going 23-7-1 OVER in their last 31 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 25 of those 31 games.  The Red Sox are scoring 4.9 runs per game this season and they have one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

Zac Gallen is having a down year at 9-6 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 21 starts.  Gallen has allowed 27 earned runs in 46 1/3 innings for a 5.24 ERA in his last nine starts.

Kutter Crawford has really struggled of late for the Red Sox and now he must face the hottest offense in baseball.  Crawford has allowed 29 earned runs and a whopping 14 homers in 29 1/3 innings in his last six starts for a 8.90 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.