15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3

The Chicago Bears continue to get no respect from oddsmakers here as 3-point home dogs to the Carolina Panthers.  All the Bears have done is go 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog.  We'll gladly take the points here in a game the Bears likely win outright over the Carolina Panthers.

The Bears have gone 3-0 ATS as home this season.  They should have beaten the Falcons outright in Week 1 if not for some drops in the closing seconds.  They did beat the Steelers 23-17 as 7-point dogs.  And they only lost 17-20 to the Vikings on a last-second field goal as 3.5-point dogs.

Mitchell Trubisky showed some moxy in going into Baltimore and leading his team to a 27-24 win over the Ravens as 5-point dogs.  And the Ravens even got two special teams touchdowns in that game, which is the only reason it went to overtime.  It helps that Trubisky has a running game to rely on and take the pressure off of him.

Indeed, Chicago ranks No. 1 in the NFC and No. 3 in the NFL with an average of 136.0 rushing yards per game.  Jordan Howard has amassed 495 rushing yards and four touchdowns in his first six games.  Tarik Cohen has been a revelation in the backfield with his running and pass-catching abilities.  And Trubisky's mobility has been a nice added dimension.

The Bears have the worst turnover differential (-8) in the NFL.  That was a big reason for their early struggles, but most of those mistakes can be attributed to Mike Glennon.  If they can take care of the football, their defense is good enough to keep them in games.  In fact, it has been one of the most underrated units in the NFL.

The Bears allowed just 303 yards per game and 5.1 per play against opponents that average 346 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  They are holding foes to 43 yards and 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  That is the sign of an elite defense.

The Panthers have also been great defensively this season, but that was largely due to having one of the best defenders in the NFL in Luke Kuechly back and healthy.  And Kuechly suffered another concussion last week against the Eagles.  After he went out, the Panthers fell apart, losing 23-28 at home.  

Kuechly has been ruled out for this game.  The Panthers had a good run defense with him, but without the perennial leading tackler in the NFL they won't be nearly as effective stopping the run against the Bears this week.  He is worth more to the spread than the oddsmakers have adjusted for in this matchup.

The Panthers have been well below-average this season on offense.  They are only averaging 21.3 points, 323 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  That's really bad when you consider they have faced one of the easiest slates of opposing defenses who give up 22.3 points, 364 yards per game and 5.8 per play on average.  Cam Newton missed Greg Olsen, and he could also be without his top receiver in Kelvin Benjamin this week, who is questionable with a knee injury.

Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a home dog of 7 points or less.  The Bears are 7-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35.5 to 42 over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games overall.  The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Chicago is flying under the radar right now and we'll continue cashing in on them while that's the case.  Roll with the Bears Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

I'm taking the Milwaukee Bucks to bounce back from their loss to the Cavaliers last night.  They let that game get away in the second half.  They have played a brutal schedule already, facing two of the best teams in the East.  They beat the Celtics on the road before losing to the Cavs last night.

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting way too much respect from the books after back-to-back blowout road wins over two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Suns and Pacers.  But now they have to take a big step up in competition here and will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  The Bucks should be favored by more here.

The Bucks clearly match up well with the Blazers.  They have won four of the last five meetings, including a season sweep last year.  And they've gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Plays on favorites (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +8.5

I think the Memphis Grizzlies are getting overlooked in the Western Conference this season.  This is always a gritty team that will fight for every possession.  And I think getting rid of Zach Randolph and Tony Allen was the right move to go younger and more athletic, which will allow them to play a little more up tempo when they want to.

The Grizzlies opened with a nice 103-91 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, holding them to 38% shooting to prove that their defense is still elite.  And they've now had two days off to get ready for Golden State, which is a huge advantage.

Meanwhile, Golden State will be playing the second of a back-to-back here after winning 128-120 in New Orleans last night.  So that gives these teams a common opponent already, and the Grizzlies can clearly hang with the Warriors given their results.

Last year, Memphis actually won its first two meetings with Golden State.  The Grizzlies won 110-89 as 13-point home dogs, and 128-119 as 13.5-point road dogs.  The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Grizzlies Saturday.

25* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame -3.5

The USC Trojans and Notre Dame Fighting Irish are two popular teams in terms of the betting public.  They love to bet on both of them.  But the difference between these teams this season is that Notre Dame is for real, while USC is a complete fraud.

The Fighting Irish came into the season with limited outside expectations for the first time in a long time after going just 4-8 last season.  And now I still think they are flying under the radar despite their 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS start.  This team is the real deal.

The only loss came 19-20 at home to Georgia, a Georgia team that is easily one of the best four teams in college football and will likely make the four-team playoff.  The other five games the Fighting Irish have played have all resulted in blowouts by 20 or more points in their favor.  That includes a 38-18 win at Michigan State, a win that looks better and better as the season goes along.

Now the Fighting Irish have had two full weeks to get ready for USC after having their bye last week.  That's a huge advantage and one that is worth a lot more points to the spread than this small 3.5-point line.  Especially when you consider the Fighting Irish now get starting QB Brandon Wimbush back from a one-game absence due to injury.  They didn't need him to beat UNC 33-10 on the road two weeks ago, but they need him here against USC.

USC came into the season as a national title contender.  The Trojans have been anything but.  Despite their 6-1 record, they are just 1-6 ATS.  They lost at Washington State, needed overtime to beat Texas, and needed to stop a 2-point conversion in the final seconds last week to beat Utah 28-27 at home.

This tough schedule is starting to catch up to the Trojans.  They don't get a bye week this season, which is a huge disadvantage, especially after a tough physical game with Utah last week.  And they have a laundry list of injuries, especially up front along the offensive line.  Sam Darnold has been running for his life, and turnovers have been a big problem.  In fact, the Trojans have committed two or more turnovers in all seven games this season, and 16 turnovers overall.  That is a trend, not bad luck.

And Notre Dame has been good at forcing turnovers, getting two or more takeaways in five of six games this year and 14 takeaways overall.  They have only turned the ball over seven times.  This game is likely to be decided with turnovers, and the big edge goes to the Fighting Irish there.

What the Fighting Irish are doing in the running game is remarkable this season.  They are averaging 308 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  Wimbush has rushed for 402 yards and eight scores while averaging 5.9 per carry.  And Josh Adams has been unstoppable behind a dominant offensive line, rushing for 776 yards and five scores while averaging an eye-popping 9.0 yards per carry.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Fighting Irish want revenge from a 27-45 road loss at USC last season.  USC is 0-9 ATS in its last nine road games off two straight ATS losses where they won straight up as a favorite.  The Trojans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +7

I've backed the LSU Tigers with success each of the last two weeks.  I had them as +3.5 dogs in a 17-16 win at Florida, and +7 dogs in a 23-21 home win over Auburn last week.  But now I'm changing course and fading them this week because they are now overvalued here as 7-point road favorites over the Ole Miss Rebels.

After beating Florida and Auburn in back-to-back weeks, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Tigers.  And they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for those wins.  They easily could have lost both games.  Florida missed an extra point that would have forced overtime, and Auburn blew a 20-0 lead.  I was clearly fortunate to win both of those games backing LSU.

This Ole Miss offense has been mighty impressive the last couple weeks.  They managed 429 total yards and 23 points on a very good Auburn defense on the road.  Then they beat Vanderbilt 57-35 last week while racking up 603 total yards against a decent Commodores defense.

Ole Miss boasts the best quarterback that not many have heard about in Shea Patterson.  He is completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,143 yards with a 17-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt. He has three stud receivers on the outside in A.J. Brown (35 receptions, 678 yards, 6 TD), DaMarkus Lodge (24, 438, 6 TD) and D.K. Metcalf (25, 357, 4 TD).

LSU hasn't seen playmakers this good since a 7-37 road loss at Mississippi State in Week 3.  This will be just the third road game for the Tigers this season.  They are averaging just 12.0 points per game in their two true road games this season.  Their offense remains limited, which is why they cannot be trusted to lay a touchdown on the road here.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won five straight and seven of the past eight meetings overall.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The underdog is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Plays against a road team (LSU) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 71-31 (69.6%) ATS since 1992.  The Rebels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Tech -2.5

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are two one-point losses away from being 5-1 this season.  They lost 16-17 at South Carolina as 9.5-point dogs, and 22-23 at UAB as 9.5-point favorites.  Those two losses look better and better by the week.  But because LA Tech is just 3-3, it is undervalued right now.

The Bulldogs will now be coming off their bye week and hungry for a victory following that loss to UAB.  And they have one of the more underrated home-field advantages of the small schools down in Ruston, Louisiana. I look for them to make easy work of the Southern Miss Eagles this week.

This is a Southern Miss team that comes in overvalued due to its 4-2 start.  But the Golden Eagles really only have one good win at UTSA 31-29.  The other three came against Southern, LA Monroe and UTEP.  They lost to the two best teams they played in Kentucky and North Texas, including a 28-43 home loss to the Mean Green.

Louisiana Tech is going to want revenge from a 39-24 loss at Southern Miss last year.  But I was on Southern Miss in that game because of the spot.  LA Tech had already clinched a trip to the C-USA title game the previous week, and Southern Miss was playing for a bowl game.  It was an easy choice on the Golden Eagles are 14.5-point home dogs.  But this time around, LA Tech needs the win more and it's a better spot for them because they are coming off a bye.

Louisiana Tech is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games off two or more consecutive unders.  The Bulldogs are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a game in which they did not force a turnover.  The Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida -11

Tulane is a team I've backed a couple times with success this year.  It's a team I really like due to head coach Willie Fritz, but I think the Green Wave are going to be in over their heads here against one of the better teams in the country in the South Florida Bulls.

South Florida has opened 6-0 this season.  The Bulls were flat in their first two games under Charlie Strong, not quite living up to expectations while failing to cover the spread.  But this team has steadily gotten better through the season and is peaking right now.  The Bulls won 47-23 over Illinois as 16.5-point favorites, beat Temple 43-7 as 17.5-point favorites, won at ECU 61-31 as 21.5-point favorites and shut down Cincinnati 33-3 as 24-point home favorites.  That's four straight covers.

Now the Bulls are only being asked to lay 11 points because they are on the road here.  This is a Bulls team that has scored at least 30 points in 23 straight games, the longest current streak at the FBS level.  The Bulls are averaging 42.8 points this season, and it's their ability to put up points in a hurry that makes this 11-point spread so low.

Strong's calling card has always been defense, and that's been the case in his first year at USF.  The Bulls rank third in the nation in rushing defense (77.8 yards/game), and No. 8 in rushing offense (293 yards/game).  Top-ranked Alabama and No. 3 Georgia are the only other teams that rank in the top 10 in both categories.  USF also ranks first in the nation in interceptions (15) and turnover margin (+13).

Tulane has been held to 21 or fewer points in four of its six games this year.  We saw what happened to the Green Wave when they took a step up in class in Week 3, losing 14-56 at Oklahoma.  They also were terrible last week in a 10-23 loss at Florida International as 12-point favorites.

This is a big matchup problem for the Green Wave.  They primarily run the football, averaging 50 rush attempts per game and 278 yards per game, compared to 15 pass attempts per game and 102 passing yards per game.  Well, as stated before, USF is third in the country against the run.  They give up just 78 rushing yards per game and 2.4 per carry this season.

Tulane is 6-27 ATS in its last 33 games vs. excellent offensive teams who average 450 or more yards per game.  USF is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 conference games.  Tulane is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on UCF -7

The UCF Knights have been the single-most underrated team in college football this season.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS, but that only tells half the story.  Not only are they covering, they are covering by massive margins.  They have covered the point spread by a combined 102 points this season.  That's an average cover of 20 points per game.

I still don't believe the oddsmakers have caught up with them this week.  Now they are only being asked to lay a touchdown on the road at Navy.  I think Navy gets a lot of respect because they have been great as an underdog and as a covering team overall.  But this Navy team is more vulnerable than in year's past.

Navy is 5-1 this season, but four of those wins came by 10 points or less, including two by a combined five points.  And they have played an extremely soft schedule against FAU, Tulane, Cincinnati, Tulsa, Air Force and Memphis.  I'd say Memphis was the best team they've played, and they lost 27-30 to them last week.

What's great about this game is we already have some common opponents to compare these teams.  UCF won on the road at Cincinnati 51-23 in a game that was cut short by rain.  Navy only beat Cincinnati 42-32 at home.  UCF crushed Memphis 40-13 at home, while Navy lost at Memphis 27-30 on the road.

This is a UCF offense that is humming along, averaging 50.6 points per game. 547 yards per game and 8.0 yards per play.  The Knights will find plenty of success against a Navy defense that is giving up 28.0 points per game, 6.2 yards per play and 8.5 yards per pass.

The reason UCF is probably the best team in the AAC is because it plays defense.  The Knights only allow 16.8 points per game and 5 yards per play.  They are only giving up 110 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  This game will be a mismatch athletically on both sides of the ball as the UCF team speed will be the difference.

Scott Frost has brought his offense in from Oregon and it is hitting on all cylinders right now.  Frost actually played scout-team quarterback for UCF this week, impersonating Navy's Zach Abbey and the triple-option.  This UCF team is having a lot of fun right now and they just have a great vibe to them with Frost.  He's clearly not going to be around much longer with the kind of success he's had here, taking a team that was 0-12 in 2015 to one that is now a contender to get the Group of 5 New Year's bowl game.

"He's running, dropping dimes," linebacker Chequan Burkett said. "You just think in your head, 'Hey man, this guy won a national championship doing this, so it's a wonderful experience to be able to face a quarterback who really did this and happens to be our head coach. He's giving us a great look. If he puts on shoulder pads and full gear, you'd really think he'd want to play us."

For Frost, the decision to run the scout team was an easy one. With both Georgia Tech and Navy on the 2017 schedule -- UCF visits the Midshipmen on Saturday -- Frost and his staff knew they had to start practice against the option months in advance. Most teams do that, just to get their teams acquainted with the offense.

"There is an art to playing option quarterback," he says. "I can't tell you how many reps I have at doing that kind of stuff. Even though I'm slow and old, it's probably still better than somebody that's doing it for the first time."

"He wanted to make sure that when the time came for us to play an option team that it wasn't a surprise," linebacker Shaquem Griffin said. "We didn't understand then, 'Why are we doing this now?' But going through the first day of practice Monday and everybody flying around and fitting the right spots, it showed what we did in spring and summer is paying off. I feel we're a step ahead. It's not like we're learning something new."

They'll be ready for the triple option Saturday.  And with the athletic mismatch on the field you'll witness this weekend, needing UCF to only win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread is a gift from oddsmakers.  Take UCF Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Nevada +7

The Nevada Wolf Pack are clearly a bet-on team moving forward.  They have opened 1-6 this season and the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But what I've seen from them the last two weeks is a good sign of things to come in the near future.

It was always going to take some time for first-year head coach Jay Norvell to get this team firing on all cylinders.  He had to implement his Air-Raid offense, and after a slow start, this offense is really firing right now.

Two weeks ago Nevada beat Hawaii 35-21 at home as 5.5-point underdogs.  The offense racked up a whopping 566 total yards in the win.  Then last week was even more impressive as the Wolf Pack nearly pulled the upset as 24-point road dogs at Colorado State, only losing 42-44.  They threw for a ridiculous 508 yards in that game and are clearly playing well offensively.

This is an Air Force team that is way down this season with a 2-4 start to the year.  The only two wins were against Virginia Military and UNLV.  The Falcons had to erase a 27-7 deficit last week to beat UNLV 34-30 as 9-point home favorites.  They expanded a lot of energy with that comeback, so this will be a tough spot for them on this short week.  And they have a huge game against rival Army on deck next week, so it's also a bit of a look-ahead spot.

This is an Air Force defense that has allowed at least 28 points in five straight games.  And they gave up 56 to New Mexico, 48 to Navy and 30 to UNLV the last three weeks.  So there's no question this Air Raid Nevada offense is going to be able to move the ball and score points at will on what is an inexperienced Air Force defense that returned just one starter from last year.

Plays against road favorites (AIR FORCE) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in two straight games are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Air Force is 0-7 ATS against teams who give up 425 or more yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  Air Force is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  These last three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Wolf Pack tonight.  Bet Nevada Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves lost their opener 99-107 at San Antonio.  They went cold down the stretch.  Now they head back to Minnesota for their first home game, and it will be a great environment as these fans have something to be excited about for the first time in a long time.

The Timberwolves are a legit contender in the Western Conference now.  They added Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson and pair then with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns.  You would be hard-pressed to find many better starting lineups than this one.

The Utah Jazz come in overvalued after their 106-96 home win over Denver.  The Jazz erased a double-digit lead and started needed a 28-13 fourth quarter to win that game.  I'm not very high on this Jazz team with a loss of Gordon Hayward.  There just isn't much talent on this team outside of Rudy Gobert.

The Timberwolves are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Cavs/Bucks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Milwaukee +3

The Milwaukee Bucks have the talent to give the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money in the East this season.  Now they want to prove that right away as they get to host the Cavs tonight, and I like the value we are getting with them as home dogs here.

The great thing about this game is that both teams have a common opponent in their opener to compare to.  The Cavs only beat the Celtics 102-99 at home, while the Bucks beat the Celtics 108-100 on the road.  Now they have a shot to get to 2-0 against the two teams that made the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

"I think we're capable of doing big things this year," Giannis Antetokounmpo said. "We've just got to stay focused, stay grounded ... and try to have the same mentality. We're the underdogs. We're not a big-market team, we're not a big team, we're young, so we've just got to play with a chip on our shoulder and hopefully this season we can be one of the best teams in the East."

In four meetings with the Cavs last season, the Bucks were only outscored by a combined 7 points.  They won their first home meeting 118-101 last year and lost the other in overtime.  Cleveland is 13-26 ATS vs. division opponents over the last two seasons.  Take the Bucks Friday.

20* Chiefs/Raiders AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 47

There are several factors that have me backing the UNDER in this game Thursday night between the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders.  Not the least of which is the fact that this is a division rivalry, and these teams are extremely familiar with one another.

And this head-to-head series has been very low-scoring in recent years.  Indeed, the Raiders and Chiefs have combined for 44 or fewer points in five of their six meetings over the past three seasons.  They combined for 34 and 36 points in their two meetings last year.  And they have averaged 42.0 combined points in their last six meetings and just 36.7 points in their last three.

The Raiders are struggling offensively this season.  They have scored just 10, 10, 17 and 16 points in their last four games overall.  They have combined for 47 or fewer points in five of their six games this season with their opponents as well.  The defense is holding its own, giving up 21 points per game this year.

I think this total has been inflated because of all the early high-scoring games the Chiefs played in.  But then they had a ton of injuries heading into the Steelers game last week, especially to their pass-catchers on offense.  And they proceeded to lose 13-19 for 32 combined points.  Those injuries aren't going to be healed just four days later in this Thursday night game.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 24-6 in Chiefs last 30 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Raiders last five vs. AFC West opponents.  The UNDER is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings in this series.  Andy Reid is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Knicks/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on New York +12.5

The hype on the Oklahoma City Thunder right now has them overvalued coming into the season.  They traded for Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, which gives them a Big 3 with Russell Westbrook.  But it's going to take some time for these guys to gel, and they now have no depth on the bench because of these trades.  Two of the first guys off the bench will be Pattrick Patterson and Raymond Felton, and both are questionable with injuries tonight.

The Knicks come into the season getting no love from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers, which is kind of a perfect storm here.  But they do have some nice depth now with the additions of Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott.  They also have Kyle O'Quinn and Michael Beasley coming off the bench.

Tim Hardaway Jr., Kristaps Porzingis and Courtney Lee are all underrated players in my book.  And rookie PG Frank Ntilikina has some veterans behind him in Ramon Sessions and Jarrett Jack to help him along.  Willy Hernangomez is a worker at center who averaged 8.2 points and 7.0 rebounds last season in only 18.4 minutes per game.  He will get double the minutes and double the production this season.

Each of the last five meetings between the Knicks and Thunder have been decided by 11 points or less.  This 12.5-point spread is clearly inflated tonight given the perception of these teams coming into the season.  Roll with the Knicks Thursday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana-Lafayette +13

This Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State matchup is one of the better rivalries in the Sun Belt.  And I'm going to back the double-digit dog in this game for that reason and many more.

Arkansas State has won at least a share of the Sun Belt title for five of the last six years.  But the one team they cannot figure out is Lafayette.  The Rajin' Cajuns have actually gone 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Red Wolves.  They pulled the 24-19 upset as 5-point dogs last year, preventing the Red Wolves from an outright title.  And only once in the last nine meetings has Arkansas State beaten Lafayette by more than 10 points.

I really like what I've seen from this Lafayette team since switching to Andre Nunez at quarterback.  They have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games, beating Idaho 21-16 as 6-point road dogs, and Texas State 24-7 as 14-point home favorites.  As you can see, their defense has played much better the last two weeks as well.

Nunez is completing 64.8% of his passes for 732 yards and a 4-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  He has four reliable targets who have all caught at least 17 balls this year, and three of them are averaging at least 13.6 yards per reception.  Nunez is averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt.  And Trey Ragas has held down the fort in the backfield, rushing for 528 yards and seven scores on 6.4 per carry.

I believe Arkansas State comes in way overvalued off back-to-back wins blowout wins over two of the worst teams in college football, and both were very misleading finals.  They beat Georgia Southern 43-25 on the road despite getting outgained by 112 yards and giving up 493 total yards.  Then last week they beat Coastal Carolina 51-17 at home, but only outgained them by 37 yards.  Their other win came against FCS Arkansas Pine-Bluff for their 3-2 record.

Lafayette is in a huge scheduling advantage here.  The Rajin' Cajuns played last Thursday against Texas State, while the Red Wolves played on Saturday against Coastal Carolina.  That means Lafayette will have a full week to prepare, two more days than Lafayette, which will have had only four days to prepare.  I do not believe oddsmakers are factoring in this situation in the inflated number.

The Rajin' Cajuns are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.  Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Arkansas State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following a blowout home win by 28 or more points.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams who complete 62% or more of their passes.  Take Lafayette Thursday.

15* Blazers/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +2

The Phoenix Suns enter the 2017 season undervalued as many picked them to finish at or near the bottom of the Western Conference.  And while last year was a growing year for their young team, they plan on having a lot more structure this season and taking major strides.

They even rested their best player Eric Bledsoe for the final 16 games last season to try and preserve his knee.  Now they enter 2017 fully healthy and ready to make some progress.  I love the backcourt of Bledsoe, Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis.  Marquese Chriss and TJ Warren continue to improve, and rookie Josh Jackson will bring some much-needed defense to this lineup.  Tyson Chandler remains an eraser and leader inside.

I think the Blazers come into 2017 a bit overvalued due to the way they finished last season.  One key here is that CJ McCollum is going to miss this game due to a suspension from the preseason.  McCollum averaged 23 points per game last season and is one of the most underrated guards in the NBA.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Nuggets +2.5

The Denver Nuggets are going to be one of my favorite teams to back this season.  They were one of the hottest teams over the second half last season and barely missed the playoffs.  Their roster is loaded, and it got even better in the offseason.

One key addition came in the form of Paul Millsap. The All-Star forward left the Atlanta Hawks to sign with Denver in free agency. Paired alongside center Nikola Jokic, Millsap promises to give the Nuggets some extra juice on both offense and defense in the frontcourt.

Millsap put up a career-best average of 18.1 points and also collected 7.7 rebounds for the Hawks a season ago. He agreed to a three-year, $90 million deal with Denver over the summer, and he gives the Nuggets a veteran leader who should mesh well with a talented, young core.

Millsap's presence will only make Jokic more dangerous and even tougher to defend. Over Denver's final 28 games last season, Jokic averaged 18.7 points, 12 rebounds and 6.1 assists.

The Utah Jazz are a team I'm not very high on this season.  Losing George Hill and Gordon Hayward will be too much for this team to overcome.  Now a starting lineup that features Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood, Joe Ingles and Ricky Rubio will not be nearly as dangerous in 2017.  I think Gobert is a great young player, but the rest of the lineup leaves a lot to be desired.

Denver is 44-25 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games when playing on three or more days' rest.  Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Jazz are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Wizards ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Philadelphia +7

The Philadelphia 76ers are a team on the rise this season.  They now have a healthy Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons and one of the most talented rosters in the league.  We will back them every chance we get as long as they're healthy.

The 76ers also boast the No. 1 overall pick in Markelle Fultz.  They made a great move to get J.J. Redick this season for a sniper from 3-point range.  And both forwards Dario Saric and Robert Covington are two of the more underrated players in the league.

Many expect the Wizards to be one of the contenders in the East.  And while their starting lineup is certainly capable of that label, they have one of the worst depth situations in the NBA.  And now Markieff Morris is going to miss time with a groin injury.

Philadelphia is 49-30 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The 76ers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games.  The Wizards are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

15* Astros/Yankees ALCS Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on New York +100

The New York Yankees are on Cloud 9 right now.  They have once again dug themselves out from an 0-2 deficit and are tied 2-2.  And the way they won last night, erasing a 4-0 deficit to win 6-4, has them feeling like they can't lose.  Conversely, the Astros really have to be questioning their character right now.

Masahiro Tanaka is dealing right now.  He is 2-1 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.600 WHIP in his last three starts, giving up just 2 earned runs in 20 innings while striking out a whopping 25 batters.  Tanaka pitched well enough to win Game 1 in Houston, giving up just 2 runs and 5 base runners in 6 innings.

Dallas Keuchel has been much better at home than on the road,  He has posted a 3.53 ERA and 1.284 WHIP in 12 road starts this season, so he has been vulnerable.  He has given up 11 of his 15 homers on the road this season over those 12 starts as well.

Tanaka is 24-7 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last two seasons.  The Astros are 1-5 in their last six playoff road games.  The Yankees are 39-16 in Tanaka's last 55 home starts.  New York is 21-7 in its last 28 home games.  Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors 2017 NBA Season Opener on Houston +9.5

The San Antonio Spurs mopped the floor with the Golden State Warriors by 40 points in the opener last season.  The Warriors come in overvalued once again this season after winning the title last year.  They are now 9.5-point favorites against the Rockets.

Opening night is certainly a distraction for teams who are coming off a title.  They get their banner hung and receive their rings.  It makes them reflect on last season, and not focus on the present.  Meanwhile, it motivates the opponent.  And that opponent this time around is one that will push the Warriors this season.

Indeed, the Rockets are the second-best team in the NBA this season in my opinion.  They were already the second-best team in the West last year, then they traded for Chris Paul, making an already potent lineup almost unstoppable.  This is the perfect fit for Paul because he doesn't have to have the ball in his hands 100% of the time like he did with the Clippers.  And he's a great spot up shooter. 

Defending BOTH Paul and Harden in the pick and roll will give opposing defenses headaches all season.  And the shooters around these two are tremendous with Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon.  Plus they have both Clint Capela and Nene Hilario to do the dirty work inside.  I really like this team a lot, and I think you'll see why in Game 1 tonight.

Mike D'Antoni is 14-4 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Houston.  The Rockets won 132-127 as 11-point dogs and only lost 98-107 as 8.5-point dogs in their two trips to Golden State last season.  They will have a shot to win this game in the closing seconds as well.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

20* Dodgers/Cubs NLCS Game 3 No-Brainer on Chicago -113

Favorites are now 20-4 in the postseason.  The home teams have just been crushing it.  And with the season on the line for the Cubs tonight, I think they get the job done here in Game 3 and make a series out of this.

The Cubs were overmatched in the mound in the first two games against Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill.  That won't be the case tonight with Kyle Hendricks.  He is 8-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.201 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Hendricks is also 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.704 WHIP in five career starts against Los Angeles.

Yu Darvish is 11-12 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 32 starts this season.  There's no question he has been better down the stretch of the season, but that's also the reason the Cubs are such a small favorite here and showing such great value.

Plays on home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .215 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts are 35-6 (85.4%, +26.9 units) over the last five seasons.

The Dodgers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 NLCS road games.  Chicago is 31-12 in its last 43 games following a loss.  The Cubs are 4-1 in Hendricks' last five starts.  Take the Cubs Tuesday.

15* Astros/Yankees ALCS Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on New York -125

The New York Yankees are starting to thrive in this spot.  After falling down 0-2 to the Indians, they won three straight to advance to the ALCS.  After falling down 0-2 to the Astros, the Yankees showed their grit with an 8-1 victory last night.  They have now outscored the Astros 10-5 in this series.

And the Yankees have the clear edge on the mound tonight with Sonny Gray.  Gray has gone 10-13 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in 28 starts this season.  He is 4-3 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in nine career starts against the Astros as well.

Lance McCullers will be making his first start since September 30th.  It was not a good one as he gave up 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings to the Red Sox.  McCullers is 7-4 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.298 WHIP in 22 starts this season, but 3-4 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in 13 road starts.  His home/away splits have been drastic early on in his career.

The Astros are 1-7 in McCullers' last eight starts, including 1-4 in his last five road starts.  The Yankees are 20-7 in their last 27 home games, and 4-0 in their last four playoff home games.  Roll with the Yankees Tuesday.

20* Colts/Titans NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNDER 48.5

This is a key AFC South game for both the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans.  They are both 2-3 right now, and the winner will be tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans for first place in the AFC South.  So there will be an extra level of intensity to this contest.

I think that favors the UNDER, along with many other factors.  These teams are obviously extremely familiar with one another since it's a division game.  And I know that previous meetings have tended to be higher scoring, but those were almost exclusively with Andrew Luck in recent years.  Luck is no longer the quarterback due to injury.

Now it's Jacoby Brissett and a sub-par Colts offense that has been dreadful on the road this season.  The Colts are scoring just 13.5 points per game, averaging 231 yards per game and 4.7 per play on the road this season.  I don't expect them to have much success moving the football and scoring points in this game either.

That's because the Colts will be up against a Titans defense that came back strong last week to give up just 16 points and 178 total yards to the Miami Dolphins.  Usually that would have been good enough to win, but the offense was held to just 10 points and 188 total yards.  That was largely due to having Matt Cassell at quarterback.

Now Marcus Mariota is expected to make his return from a hamstring injury.  I think that fact has this total inflated.  Mariota is probably coming back too early because the Titans are coming off two consecutive losses and need a win.  And there's zero chance this will be the same free-wheeling Mariota we've become accustomed to.

Instead, Mariota will be severely limited by that hamstring.  His feet are his biggest weapon, and without them this offense won't hum like it normally would.  Mariota won't be able to make plays outside the pocket like he usually does, and he certainly won't be running for many first downs to bail out the offense when plays break down.

I expect the Titans to try and get back to their bread and butter offensively, which is running the football with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.  That's because they've been limited to just 77.5 rushing yards per game in their last two contests, which they have lost.  Their two best running totals this season were two games in which they won.  They know their best formula for success is to run the ball, and that will be the case here Monday.  That will also keep the clock moving.

The Colts found a nice running game last week with Marlon Mack against the San Francisco 49ers.  They rushed for 159 yards on 35 attempts, with Mack accounting for 91 of those yards.  I think they'll be looking to run the football as well to try and limit Tennessee's possessions, which is their best plan of attack.  They can't afford to fall behind big early because they don't have the firepower to come back, as we've seen in their two blowout road losses.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams against the total (INDIANAPOLIS) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents are 71-33 (68.3%) over the last 10 seasons.  With the intensity both defenses will be bringing to the table, and with the limitations of Brissett and Mariota, the only way to look is with the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* ALCS GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Yankees -131

The New York Yankees are in must-win mode here in Game 3 tonight at home.  The good news is that they are used to this situation already considering they lost the first two games in Cleveland last series.  They proceeded to win three straight to advance to the ALCS.

CC Sabathia has held his own in both of his starts this postseason, giving up exactly two earned runs in each of his two starts against the Indians while striking out 14 batters.  Sabathia is now 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in his last three starts.

After facing aces Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel in the first two games in a pair of 2-1 losses, the Yankees will be glad to go up against Charlie Morton tonight.  Morton is 4-4 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in 10 road starts this season.  He is also 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA in two career starts against New York.

The Yankees are 10-2 in Sabathia's 12 starts following a loss this season.  New York is 18-6 in its last 24 games following a loss.  The Yankees are 19-7 in their last 26 home games.  New York is 13-3 in Sabathia's last 16 home starts.  Bet the Yankees in Game 3 Monday.

15* Cubs/Dodgers NLCS Game 2 No-Brainer on Chicago +147

The Chicago Cubs can't afford to fall down 0-2 in this series with the Los Angeles Dodgers.  I look for them to get a win in Game 2 here Sunday at a very nice underdog value of +147.

Jon Lester has been a clutch performer in the postseason.  He gave up only one earned run and four base runners in 6 innings against the Nationals in his only start last series.  Lester is now 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in his last three starts.  He's also 3-3 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in nine career starts against Los Angeles.

Rich Hill is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers with this line.  He is 12-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  But now he's up against a Cubs lineup that has crushed left-handed pitching this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game against southpaws.

The Cubs are 31-11 in their last 42 games following a loss.  Chicago is 35-17 in Lester's last 52 starts.  The Dodgers are 3-9 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

15* Steelers/Chiefs AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +5

The Kansas City Chiefs are simply overvalued right now due to their 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS start to the season.  They are the only team that's left unbeaten both straight up and against the spread.  With that fact comes expectations from the betting public and the oddsmakers that the Chiefs simply cannot live up to moving forward.

Now the Chiefs are being asked to lay a whopping 5 points at home against a Steelers team that I'm not so sure isn't still the best team in the AFC.  The Chiefs were lucky to cover against both the Eagles and Redskins in their two home games this season.  They were outgained by the Eagles by 62 yards, and they got a fluke fumble return TD on the last play of the game to cover against the Redskins.

Now this is a very tough spot for the Chiefs.  They have played back-to-back National TV games last Monday against the Redskins and then last week against the Texans.  That game turned into a 42-34 shootout thanks to some injuries on both sides.  That game took a lot out of the Chiefs, and it really showed up in the injury department.

Receiver Chris Conley was lost to a season-ending Achilles injury.  Fellow receiver Albert Wilson suffered a leg injury and is questionable.  Tight end Travis Kelce was knocked out of the Houston game with a concussion and is questionable.  Defensively, both LB Justin Houston and LB Dee Ford, their two best pass rushers, are questionable with calf and hip injuries.

The Steelers are going to be chapping at the bit to get back on the field this week and redeem themselves from their ugly 9-30 home loss to the Jaguars last week.  Big Ten threw five interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns, to give the game away.  It was a clear flat spot for the Steelers off their big 26-9 win in Baltimore the previous week, and with the Chiefs on deck.

Now the Steelers will get back to work this week and come back with a much better performance.  I expect them to give the ball to Le'Veon Bell at least 30 times after he did not get enough touches against the Jaguars due to game flow.  They are much better when he gets the rock.  His two biggest workloads came in identical 26-9 wins over Baltimore and Minnesota.

What has been most impressive about the Steelers is their defense.  They are only allowing 17.8 points per game.  They rank 4th in total defense, giving up just 276 yards per game.  And they are 1st against the pass by a mile, giving up a stunning 140 passing yards per game.  Alex Smith won't keep humming along, especially with all the injuries on offense right now.

The Steelers simply have the Chiefs number.  They have gone 5-1 in the last six meetings over the past six seasons.  They won 18-16 on the road in the playoffs last year, and 43-14 at home earlier in the regular season, outgaining the Chiefs by a combined 241 yards in the process.  The Steelers have clearly figured out Andy Reid's offense, limiting the Chiefs to just 14.5 points per game in the last six meetings.

Pitt is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor rushing defense allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards per carry over the last three seasons.  Mike Tomlin is 16-5 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 46

For two teams that aren't in the same division, the Steelers and Chiefs are certainly getting used to playing each other.  They have played six times in the last six seasons, including in the playoffs last year.  The Steelers ended the Chiefs' season with an 18-16 road victory as 2.5-point favorites.

The majority of these meetings have been very low-scoring.  In fact, the UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The Steelers and Chiefs have averaged just a combined 35 points per game in those six meetings.  That's 11 points less than this 46-point total, which shows the kind of value we are getting here with the UNDER.

I think this total has been inflated due to the Chiefs having the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL. And the fact that they are coming off a shootout win over the Texans last week.  But the Texans lost arguably their two best defenders in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus to injuries in the first quarter, which changed the complexion of the game.

The Chiefs came away from that game with some significant injuries of their one, which also makes me like the UNDER this week.  Receiver Chris Conley suffered a season-ending Achilles tear.  Receiver Albert Wilson is questionable with a leg injury.  Alex Smith's favorite target in Travis Kelce is questionable with a concussion that knocked him out of the Texans game.  I like the UNDER either way, but it would just be an added bonus if all three guys were out.

And now the Chiefs are up against a vastly improved Steelers defense, and their offense won't keep humming along this week.  The Steelers are only allowing 17.8 points per game.  They rank 4th in total defense, giving up just 276 yards per game.  And they are 1st against the pass by a mile, giving up a stunning 140 passing yards per game.

The Steelers have held the Chiefs to just 14.5 points per game i their last six meetings, so they clearly have Andy Reid's offense figured out.  And the Steelers haven't lived up to expectations this season offensively.  Big Ten just threw five picks, including two that were returned for touchdowns, to give the game away to Jacksonville last week.

I look for the Steelers to go to a more conservative game plan this week.  They will feed Le'Veon Bell upwards of 30 times in this game to take some pressure off of Big Ten.  That will also keep the clock moving and cut down on the turnovers.  It's a Steelers offense that is only averaging 19.8 points per game this year.  The Chiefs still have a respectable defense themselves, giving up 22.2 points per game this season.

The UNDER is 22-7 in Steelers last 29 road games.  The UNDER is 21-6 in Steelers last 27 games in October.  The UNDER is 13-2-1 in Steelers last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 39-18 in Chiefs last 57 home games.  Kansas City is 7-0 UNDER versus poor rushing defense that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Rams +3

The Los Angeles Rams are a legitimate NFL team this season.  I think they are flying under the radar right now as they could easily be 5-0 rather than 3-2.  They have nice road wins over the Cowboys and 49ers, as well as a blowout home win over the Colts.

The Rams did lose 20-27 at home to the Redskins in Week 2, but the Redskins are clearly better than most thought they would be.  Many are writing off the Rams because of their 16-10 loss to the Seahawks last week, but if they played that game 10 times, the Rams would have won nine of them when you dig deeper into the stats.

The Rams outgained the Seahawks by 134 yards.  They drove the ball inside the Seattle red zone five times, and only scored 3 points on those five trips.  They missed a short field goal, Todd Gurley fumbled through the end zone for a touchback, and Cooper Kupp dropped a would-be game-winning touchdown on the final drive.  The Rams were the better team, which just shows how far they've come.

The Jaguars are in the ultimate letdown spot here.  They are coming off a signature 30-9 road win at Pittsburgh in which they intercepted Big Bet five times, returning two of those for touchdowns.  Blake Bortles only attempted one pass in the second half and finished 8-of-14 passing for 95 yards with an interception in the win.  So it was nothing he did.

This Jaguars offense is too one-dimensional, depending basically solely on Leonard Fourtette to run the ball.  We saw what happened when the Jaguars fell behind in their only home game this season in Week 2 against the Titans.  Bortles had to try to throw them back in it, and he couldn't do it in a 16-37 loss.

Both teams have elite defenses, but the difference in this game is the offenses.  The Rams are far from one-dimensional as Sean McVay has brought his offense to this team, and they have taken off.  The Rams are averaging 30.4 points per game, 382 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  They have one of the best offenses in the entire NFL this season.

This line indicates that the line should be about a pick 'em on a neutral field.  And I have no doubt the Rams are the better team and would unload on them as a favorite on a neutral.  Giving the Jaguars 2.5 points for home-field advantage is too much because they have actually been much better on the road than at home in recent years.  And the Jaguars have been terrible as a favorite, but great as a dog.

The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.  Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last six following a straight up win of more than 14 points.  They just can't seem to be able to put together two good games in a row.  And this is a clear 'buy low' on the Rams and 'sell high' on the Jags opportunity.  The Rams are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Plays on underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 38-14 (73.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -3.5

I grabbed the New Orleans Saints at -3.5 on Monday not only because I loved them at that price, but also because I figured that the line would move quickly in their favor.  And it has as it's up to -4.5 and -5 as of this writing.  I still like them at anything under a touchdown, but obviously the -3.5 line is a stronger play. It benefits you to get a subscription so you can get in on these lines as soon as I release them, rather than buying the play the day of the game and getting worse lines.

The reason to love the Saints is the spot.  They are coming off their bye week, so they have had two full weeks to get ready for the Lions.  And they needed it after playing their last game in London.  Teams playing in London get to choose whether or not they want the bye the next week, and the Saints chose wisely.

I've used the Saints as a 25* play in each of their last two games, and cashed them both easily.  I felt like they were way undervalued after two brutal games to open the season at Minnesota and at home against New England.  And that proved to be the case as they went into Carolina and won 34-13 as 5-point dogs, and won 20-0 in London over the Dolphins as 4-point favorites, covering the spread by a combined 42 points.

Now the Saints opened as -3 and -3.5 favorites at home against the Lions this week, which continues to show how undervalued they are.  I rank the Saints as a better team than the Lions, and when you factor in home-field advantage and the fact that they are coming off their bye week, this line should have come out at closer to -6.

It's clear that the Saints are improved defensively this season after allowing just 6.5 points and 237 yards per game in their last two contests.  And the team is getting healthy as a whole with very few significant injuries.  The Saints feel like the NFC South is for the taking, and they are playing with a sense of urgency right now knowing that Drew Brees doesn't have too many seasons left, though he continues to play at an extremely high level.

The Lions are complete frauds in my opinion.  They lead the NFL in turnover margin (+8), and they already have 11 takeaways this season.  That's not going to last.  The Saints have done an excellent job of taking care of the football this season, committing zero turnovers in their first four games.  They won't be giving it away to the Lions this week either.

The Lions have now trailed in 20 of their last 22 games dating back to the start of last season, and most of those they actually trailed in the fourth quarter.  The only exception this year was their game against the 0-5 New York Giants.  Matthew Stafford has been working miracles with this team, but now even Stafford is banged up with his status in question for Sunday.

Stafford suffered both ankle and hamstring injuries in a 27-24 home loss to the Panthers last week.  That was another game they trailed 27-10 and was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  And even if Stafford goes, he will be hobbled.  He would also be starting behind a banged-up, terrible offensive line that has allowed a whopping 12 sacks over the last two weeks combined.

On Monday, Stafford told WJR Radio in Detroit that he doesn't know if he'll play due to the the ankle/leg injuries.  And he's not the only injury concern.  Breakout WR Kenny Golladay suffered a hamstring injury and is questionable. DT Haloti Ngata has been placed on injured reserve with an elbow injury suffered last week, and LB Paul Worrilow remains out indefinitely.

And the final handicap in this game is the revenge factor.  The Saints are actually 0-3 against the Lions the last three seasons, including an embarrassing 28-13 home loss to them last year.  The Saints had won their previous four games against the Lions by an average of 21.0 points per game.  I think we see them getting back to that kind of form here and winning in blowout fashion.

Sean Payton is 15-4 ATS in home games vs. mistake-prone teams averaging 60 or more penalty yards per game as the coach of New Orleans.  Detroit is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off a home loss by 3 points or less.  The Lions are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games.  New Orleans is 8-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams averaging 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Saints are 6-0 ATS vs. good rushing defenses allowing 90 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three years.

Bets against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1983.  The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +10

The Houston Texans are the flavor of the month right now because of Deshaun Watson becoming the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to account for five touchdowns in back-to-back weeks.  And now the Texans are being asked to lay double-digits, something they certainly aren't used to doing at any point in franchise history.

The problem is that the injuries to the Texans defense are getting overlooked.  They lost arguably their two best defenders in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus in the first quarter against the Chiefs last week, and proceeded to give up a whopping 42 points.  Fellow starters Brian Cushing and Kevin Johnson are also out.

The Browns are much better than their 0-5 record would indicate.  They are actually outgaining opponents by 16 yards per game this season.  They are only getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.  The Texans are also getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play this season, so by those numbers alone, these are closer to even teams than this line would suggest.

The problem for the Browns has been turnovers, and mostly from Deshon Kizer.  They have committed a whopping 12 turnovers already and are -6 in turnover margin.  Well, they have decided to move on from Kizer to Kevin Hogan, who has taken much better care of the football and understands the importance of it dating back to his time at Stanford, where he had similar numbers to Andrew Luck.

Last week against the Jets, the Browns lost 14-17 but the stats show they should have won by a big margin.  The Browns outgained the Jets by a whopping 207 yards in that game.  Hogan was on point, completing 16-of-19 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns with one interception after replacing Kizer.  He nearly led them back to a victory from a 17-7 deficit.  I certainly think this team offense is better with Hogan, if for nothing else the fact that he values the football.

The Browns have actually been very good defensively this season.  They are giving up just 305 total yards per game.  They have been very good against the run, allowing just 77 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.  That's key here because they're up against a Texans team that likes to run the ball, averaging 31 attempts for 141 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

Winless teams who are 0-5 or worse are 50-18 ATS when facing an opponent in non-division road games.  That angle improves to 39-7 ATS when the 0-5 team has a spread winning percentage of 33% or worse.  The Browns get two of their best players back from injury this week in LB Jamie Collins and WR Kenny Britt as well.    I like Cleveland much better in this role where it is getting double-digit points, rather than the role it has been in the last three weeks where it basically had to win outright to cover.  Take the Browns Sunday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron +13

I was way down on Western Michigan coming into the season and I've seen nothing to change my mind thus far.  The Broncos are 4-2 SU but 2-4 ATS.  Their only two victories by double-digits came at home against terrible Wagner and Ball State teams.

Western Michigan only beat Idaho 37-28 as 17-point home favorites.  Then last week they needed a whopping seven overtimes to beat Buffalo 71-68 on the road as 7-point favorites.  That's the key here is that the Broncos are going to be fatigued and won't have much left in the tank after playing seven overtimes.  They can't be laying two touchdowns to Akron here.

This is an Akron team that I believed to be one of the better squads in the MAC coming into the season.  And after a brutal non-conference schedule that featured losses to Penn State and Iowa State, the Zips have fared much better against similar competition.

They beat Arkansas Pine-Bluff 52-3.  They went on the road and only lost 17-22 as 17-point dogs at Troy, which is a Troy team that upset LSU on the road.  They won 34-23 as 3-point favorites at Bowling Green, and then crushed Ball State 31-3 as 4-point favorites last week.  They have now covered three in a row, yet they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers here.

Akron is one of the few MAC teams that plays solid defense.  The Zips are only giving up 24.0 points per game this season.  The Broncos have been sub-par defensively, giving up 31.7 points and 5.8 yards per play.  And the Broncos haven't been good as their offensive numbers would suggest.  They are averaging 414 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  This is just a mediocre MAC team that isn't nearly as good with the losses of PJ Fleck and all of their best playmakers on offense.

Western Michigan is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 home games after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of the last six games.  Terry Bowden is 9-2 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of Akron.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  I just think WMU is still getting too much respect for what it did last season.  Roll with Akron Sunday.

15* Washington/ASU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona State +17.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are in a great spot this week.  They are coming off their bye week after a brutal stretch to start the season.  They played two improved Group of 5 teams in New Mexico State and San Diego State, an improved Texas Tech team on the road, and then Pac-12 powers Oregon and Stanford.  They needed a bye week.

It's clear that this team has been improving.  Only losing by 7 at Texas Tech is no shame, and ASU came back to upset Oregon 37-35 as 15-point home dogs.  Keep in mind that was a healthy Oregon team, not the one that we've seen so banged up the last few weeks.  And a 24-34 loss as 17-point road dogs at Stanford was a quality performance heading into their bye.

Washington is way overvalued due to its 6-0 start and #5 national ranking.  The schedule couldn't have been any easier for the Huskies up to this point.  They have faced Rutgers, Montana, Fresno State, Colorado, Oregon State and California.  Those are three of the worst teams in the Pac-12, an FCS opponent, one of the worst teams in the Big Ten and a mediocre Mountain West squad.  To compare, ASU has faced four teams that are better than any team Washington has played.

Now the Huskies are being asked to lay a whopping 17.5 points on the road against an ASU team that has been very good at home in Pac-12 play.  The Sun Devils are 21-11 straight up in their last 32 Pac-12 home games.  And Arizona State hasn't been this big of a home underdog since 1996.

it is almost shocking how one-sided this series has been in recent years.  Indeed, Arizona State is 10-1 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Washington.  Granted, most of those were before Chris Petersen arrived, but it's noteworthy nonetheless.

Arizona State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  Todd Graham is 17-6 ATS as a home dog in all games he has coached.  The Sun Devils are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games overall.  Take Arizona State Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU +7

The Auburn Tigers are way overvalued right now.  They have won four straight by 14 points or more coming in.  Their least impressive was a 24-10 home win over Mercer as a 41-point favorite, but then they beat Missouri 51-14 on the road, Mississippi State 49-10 at home and Ole Miss 44-23 at home.

Sure, they took care of business, but who have they really beaten so far?  Missouri is awful, Mississippi State was tired after facing LSU and Georgia the previous two weeks, and Ole Miss was coming off a 66-3 loss to Alabama.  The only good team they've faced that wasn't in a bad spot was Clemson, and they lost 6-14 while getting held to 117 total yards.

So it's time to 'sell high' on Auburn, while we 'buy low' on LSU.  LSU is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Nobody wants to back this team right now after they were upset 21-24 by Troy.  But I jumped on them last week as 3.5-point road dogs at Florida, and a lot of big money was on them as well because they ended up -2 favorites.  LSU showed some great fight in a 17-16 road victory.

I think LSU will continue to fight for Ed Orgeron this week now.  This is a huge game against a Top 10 opponent, and Baton Rouge is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  And just to show you how the perception on these teams has changed since the beginning of the season, the Game of the Year line on this game was LSU -7.  So this line has swung 14 points in Auburn's favor.  I agree it should have swung some, but this line should be closer to a pick 'em.  I think LSU is showing tremendous value as a touchdown home dog now.

LSU is 45-7 straight up at home since 2010.  Only two of those seven losses have come by more than a touchdown.  That makes for a 50-2 system backing LSU based on their home record since 2010 and factoring in this 7-point point spread.  You're not going to find a better value in the SEC the rest of the season.

Plays on home teams (LSU) - after four or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after one or more consecutive wins against the spread are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take LSU Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia -3

I was in utter shock when I saw this line move from the opener of West Virginia -7 down to -3 early in the week.  The value on the Mountaineers -3 is too good to pass up.  I just think that these early bettors are dead wrong about Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders aren't nearly as good as they're getting credit for.

They just moved into the Top 25 at #24 this week.  We've seen this story before when a team not used to being in the Top 25 falls flat the week after getting ranked.  I can certainly see that being the case here.

The Red Raiders are getting too much credit for their 7-point home loss to Oklahoma State.  That was one of the more misleading finals of the year.  The Cowboys outgained the Red Raiders by 213 yards.  Oklahoma State had 13 drives, 12 of which went inside the Texas Tech 20-yard line.  Five of them wound up in chip shot field goals, and they missed two.  Another was a 97-yard pick-6 for a TD by the Red Raiders.  So that only being a 7-point game was a fluke.

Texas Tech hasn't beaten anyone of any relevance with narrow wins over Houston and Arizona State, and blowout wins over Eastern Washington and Kansas.  The Red Raiders have forced 14 turnovers already this season after forcing only 13 all of late year.  They can't keep up this pace.  12 of those turnovers came against FCS Eastern Washington, Kansas and a Houston team that was in the midst of a QB controversy.

I've been extremely impressed by West Virginia this year.  The Mountaineers have outgained all five of their opponents.  They really should be 5-0, but the fact that they are just 3-2 has them flying under the radar.  They outgained VA Tech by 123 yards in a 24-31 loss.  Then last week in their most impressive performance, they outgained No. 6 TCU by 102 yards on the road in another 7-point loss.

The Mountaineers racked up 592 yards in Virginia Tech and another 508 on TCU, which are two of the better defenses in the country.  Florida transfer Will Grier has been lighting it up with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.2 per attempt.  He has two receivers in Gary Jennings and David Stills who are on pace for 1,000-yard receiving seasons.  RB Justin Crawford is on pace for 1,000 rushing yards while averaging 7.0 per carry.  This offense is loaded, and the defense has been better than expected.

Morgantown is one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country.  The Mountaineers are 14-2 at home over the last three seasons.  Their two losses came to Oklahoma last year, and that was an Oklahoma team that made the four-team playoff.  And they lost to then-No. 21 Oklahoma State in overtime back in 2015.

The Mountaineers have won the last two meetings, including a 48-17 blowout as 3-point road favorites last year.  I think they win in blowout fashion at home in Morgantown once again this time around.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee -2.5

Butch Jones was able to keep his job through the bye week despite a 41-0 home loss to Georgia last time out. Look for these players to rally around Jones and for this to be a 'win one for the gipper' type of performance.  Having two weeks to correct things should have Tennessee coming out and playing its best game of the season Saturday at home against South Carolina.

The bye week also gave Jones the perfect opportunity to make the switch at quarterback.  He'll be going with freshman Jarrett Guarantano this week and benching junior Quenten Dromandy, who simply wasn't getting it done.  Guarantano was the 9th-best QB recruit in the country coming out of high school, including the No. 1 dual-threat QB. He is more in the Joshua Dobbs mold of years' past.

"Jarrett's a good story because he's just unselfish," fifth-year senior wide receiver Josh Smith said. "You have a guy that, they're both competing, and you give the job to another guy, but he keeps competing. And that just shows his character. I think highly of him and I think he's growing and I think he's just going to keep getting better and better."

South Carolina may be the most fraudulent 4-2 team in the country.  The Gaoecocks are getting outgained by 55 yards per game on the season.  They were outgained by 258 yards despite beating NC State.  They were outgained by 64 yards at Missouri, which is a terrible Missouri team.  They lost 13-23 at home to Kentucky, barely beat LA Tech 17-16 at home, and their 48-22 win over Arkansas last week has them way overvalued.  The Gamecocks had three defensive touchdowns in that game and only outgained the Razorbacks by 28 yards.

Tennessee is 10-2 SU in its last 12 home meetings with South Carolina, winning by an average of 12 points per game.  The Vols are 38-19 ATS in their last 57 games following two more more consecutive ATS losses.  The Volunteers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* Washington State/Cal ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on California +14

The Washington State Cougars are way overvalued right now due to their 6-0 start while being ranked No. 8 in the country.  But they couldn't have played an easier schedule up to this point, and they have caught some unbelievable breaks along the way, which we'll get to.

For starters, Washington State opened with five straight home games.  They beat Montana State, Boise State, Oregon State and Nevada in non-conference.  And they were trailing by 21 at home to Boise State before starting QB Brett Rypien got hurt, and they had a miraculous comeback to win 47-44 against a Boise team that simply isn't very good this year.

Their first Pac-12 game came at home against USC on a Friday night in front of a rowdy home crowd.  They were trailing in that game 17-10, and then all of a sudden USC lost three starting offensive linemen to injury, and the Trojans only managed 10 points over the final 40 minutes of the game as Sam Darnold was under duress behind that shaky O-Line.

The breaks continue last week for the Cougars as they faced an Oregon team with a third-string quarterback and several other key injuries.  They took advantage and won as they should have 33-10 on the road as 1-point favorites.  Now I think they are getting way too much respect here as 14-point road favorites at California.

The Golden Bears have had to play the much tougher schedule.  They opened 3-0 in the non-conference beating UNC on the road, and Weber State and Ole Miss at home despite being dogs in two of those games.  Then they played a great game against a healthy USC team, but lost 20-30 as 17-point home dogs despite committing six turnovers in that game.

Then they played a healthy Oregon team on the road and lost 24-45 as 17-point dogs before falling 7-38 on the road as 29-point dogs at Washington last week.  Those may have been the three best teams in the Pac-12 at the time they faced them, and now after two non-covers in a row, I think the Golden Bears come into this game undervalued.

Justin Wilcox, the former defensive coordinator at Wisconsin, was one of the more underrated hires of the offseason.  Turning around a Cal defense that gave up 42.6 points and 518 yards per game last season was going to be no easy task, and it's remarkable what he's been able to do on that side of the ball already in his first season.

This is a Cal defense that is only giving up 5.5 yards per play against team that average 6.4 yards per play, holding opponents to 0.9 yards per play below their season average.  To compare, Cal allowed 6.7 yards per play last season.  Washington State's numbers are skewed on both sides of the ball because of the lack of competition and the scheduling breaks thus far.

Cal has won 10 of its last 12 meetings with Washington State straight up.  Washington State has only been a double-digit road favorite six times in the last 25 years!  Mike Leach is 4-14 ATS in road games after a game where his team forced 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached.  Leach is 3-14 ATS in his last 17 road games off three or more consecutive wins.  Take California Friday.

15* Yankees/Astos AL Total DOMINATOR on OVER 8

I think we see some runs tonight between the Yankees and Astros.  The last series with the Red Sox saw Houston and Boston score at least 9 combined runs in all four games.  The Astros could cover this 8-run total on their own.

Masahiro Tanaka has been brutal on the road this year, going 4-7 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 15 road starts.  Tanaka has never beaten the Astros, going 0-3 with an 8.86 ERA and 1.701 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Dallas Keuchel has been much more vulnerable than normal here down the stretch.  He has given up at least one home run in in nine of his last 13 starts.  And the Yankees are swinging a hot bat right now in scoring five or more runs in four of their last six games.

The OVER is 5-0 in Tanaka's last five road starts.  The OVER is 5-1 in Astros last six playoff games.  The OVER is 11-3 in Astros last 14 following an off day.  The OVER is 19-6-1 in Astros last 26 vs. AL East foes.  The OVER is 4-1 in Keuchel's last five starts.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Clemson/Syracuse ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse +22.5

We're starting to see the Clemson Tigers having to lay some inflated prices here of late because of all of the love they are getting from the public.  They have gone just 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall, and now they are overvalued once again as 22.5-point road favorites at Syracuse Friday night.

They beat Boston College 34-7 as 33-point favorites three weeks ago.  But that was a 7-7 game entering the 4th quarter.  They won and covered at VA Tech 31-17 as 7-point road favorites two weeks ago, but that was a misleading final as the Tigers were held to 332 total yards and outgained by 10 yards by the Hokies, but won the turnover battle 3-0.  Then last week they only won 28-14 at Wake Forest as 21-point favorites.

This is an upstart Syracuse team that is on the rise in the second season under Dino Babers.  They returned a whopping 19 starters this season and are clearly improved.  They have been competitive in every game, and their performances against the top teams they've faced show that they can hang with Clemson, especially in a nationally televised home game inside what will be a rowdy Carrier Dome Friday night.

Syracuse only lost 26-35 at LSU as 21.5-point dogs, only getting outgained by 30 yards in that game.  More impressive may have been their 25-33 loss at NC State as 14-point dogs as they were only outgained by 18 yards in that game.  That's an NC State team that is among the best in the ACC this year, and that was on the road.

I think a big reason this line is so big is because Clemson won 54-0 at home over Syracuse last year.  I remember that game quite well because I was on Syracuse.  And when starting QB Eric Dungy was knocked out of the game in the first quarter, I knew I was in trouble.  Dungey means everything to this team.  He is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,802 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 325 yards and eight scores.  They would be in trouble without him.

Now it's time for Dungey and Syracuse to redeem themselves.  They will be talking about that 54-0 loss all week leading up to this game.  They will be desperate to show that they are a much better team than what they showed last year.  And playing at home will help.  After all, Syracuse only lost 27-37 as 30-point home dogs to a very good Clemson team the season prior in 2015.

It's worth nothing that Clemson starting QB Kelly Bryant suffered an ankle injury against Wake Forest last week.  He is probable to start, but he won't be at 100% if he does, and his mobility is his biggest weapon.  "He'll be day-to-day, and we'll see how he progresses through the week," Tigers coach Dabo Swinney said. "If he's ready to play, he'll go play. If he's not, we'll play the next guy."

Clemson is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games following three straight conference wins.  Syracuse is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 home games after covering the spread in two of its last three games coming in.  The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Syracuse Friday.

20* Eagles/Panthers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46.5

This is a huge game between a pair of 4-1 teams in the Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers that could ultimately have home-field advantage implications in the playoffs down the road.  I think this will be a very intense game between two of the best teams in the NFC, and I expect the defenses will have the edge in this one.

I also believe this total has been inflated due to the fact that the Panthers have gone over the total in three straight now.  But that was largely due to playing three poor defenses in the Saints, Patriots and Lions, but now they're up against a vastly underrated Eagles defense.  And the Panthers simply aren't a very good offensive team.

The Panthers only average 21.0 points, 327 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opponents that allow 368 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  The injuries for the Panthers on offense are going to hold them back.  They are without Cam Newton's favorite weapon in Greg Olsen, and C Ryan Kalil, WR Devin Funchess and RB Jonathan Stewart are all questionable for this game.

The biggest reason for Carolina's turnaround this season has been its elite defense.  The Panthers are only allowing 18.8 points per game, 274 yards per game and 5.1 per play.  They have shown tremendous improvement against the pass, giving up just 194 passing yards per game and 5.7 yards per attempt against teams that average 237 yards per game and 6.7 per attempt.

While Carson Wentz has turned the corner and is playing much better this season, a big reason for the Eagles' turnaround has been a defense that only gives up 19.8 points per game.  And now they get their best defensive player in DT Fletcher Cox back from injury this week.  The run defense has been particularly good, allowing just 63 rushing yards per game.  That will be key against a Panthers team that loves to run the football, averaging 29 rushing attempts per game compared to 30 pass attempts, a rare 50/50 split in today's NFL.

Wentz will face his stiffest test yet here against this Panthers defense.  The Eagles have been humming along offensively, but they lost their best linemen in RT Lane Johnson due to injury, and Wentz was not nearly as good without him last year.  In fact, since the start of the 2016 season, the Eagles are 9-2 when Johnson plays, and 2-8 when he does not.  Wentz completes 64.8% of his passes, averaging 7 YPA and a 10:2 TD/INT ratio with him, and 61.2%, 5.9 YPA and 6:12 TD/INT ratio without him.

The Eagles are also running the ball more this season, averaging 31 rushing attempts per game compared to 35 passing.  And the Panthers are great against the run too, giving up 80 rushing yards per game.  I think both offenses are going to be in more 3rd-and-long situations than they're used to because of both defenses ability to stop the run.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 59-24 (71.1%) since 1983.  

Carolina is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 home games after allowing 50 or fewer rushing yards last game.  The Panthers are 71-46 UNDER in their last 117 games as a home favorite.  The UNDER is 39-17 in Eagles last 56 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Cubs/Nationals NLDS Game 5 No-Brainer on Chicago -106

Dusty Baker got lucky that Game 4 was postponed Tuesday, giving Stephen Strasburg an extra day of rest so that he could start Game 4 yesterday.  But now he's making a mistake starting Gio Gonzalez in Game 5.  The Cubs feast on left-handed pitching.

Gonzalez was rocked for 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings against the Cubs in Game 2.  The Cubs are hitting .272 and scoring 5.4 runs per game against left-handed starters in 2017.  Gonzalez is 0-2 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.745 WHIP in his last three starts.  Look for them to knock Gonzalez out early in this one.

Kyle Hendricks has become the ace of the Cubs.  Hendricks allowed just two hits and truck out six over seven innings in Game 1.  He is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts against Washington this season, and 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA in six career starts against the Nationals.  Hendricks is also 2-0 with a 0.70 ERA in his last four starts overall, giving up just 2 earned runs in 25 2/3 innings.

The Cubs are 70-35 (+26.4 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 6-1 in Hendricks' last seven starts vs. NL East teams.  Washington is 5-13 in Gonzalez's last 18 starts vs. NL Central foes.  Roll with the Cubs Thursday.

20* Texas State/UL Lafayette CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on OVER 56

We have a battle between two of the worst defenses in the country here in UL Lafayette and Texas State.  I believe the oddsmakers have set the bar too low in this game, and the OVER 56 is a very nice bet here in Sun Belt action Thursday night.

The UL Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns have been in high-scoring games all season, other than last week against Idaho, which I think is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Lafayette is 4-1 to the OVER.  It is scoring 37.0 points per game this season, while giving up a whopping 46.2 points per game.  Thats an average of 83 combined points per game, which is 27 points more than this posted total of 56.

Texas State is giving up 33.7 points per game overall with a terrible defense.  The offense has not been good for the Bobcats, averaging just 14.5 points per game.  That's a combined 52 points per game, which is only 4 points less than this posted total of 56.  And I think the Bobcats will certainly get right offensively against this horrid Lafayette defense.

The Bobcats have gone OVER the total in each of their last three games.  They allowed 44 points to UTSA, 45 to Wyoming and 45 to LA Monroe.  This Louisiana offense should post a huge number and cover most of this OVER on their own, especially since they've made to the switch to Andre Nunez at quarterback.  Numez is completing 65.6% of his passes for 500 yards and three touchdowns with one INT while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt.  The previous starter Jordan Davis was only completing 58.9% and averaging 6.3 per attempt.

The last two meetings at Lafayette have been extremely high-scoring.  Lafayette won 49-27 in 2015 for 76 combined points, and 48-24 in 2013 for 72 combined points.  The Rajin' Cajuns are averaging 50.5 points per game at home this season and giving up 52.0 points per game.  The Bobcats are allowing 41.0 points point game on the road.

Lafayette is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games off an upset win as a road dog.  Lafayette is 35-13 OVER in its last 48 games as a home favorite.  Texas State is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 road games versus poor rushing defense that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* South Alabama/Troy Sun Belt No-Brainer on South Alabama +17

The Troy Trojans are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off the biggest win in program history, winning 24-21 outright at LSU as 20.5-point road underdogs last time out.  Now they've been getting patted on the back all week leading up to this game, and they won't have their best effort as they'll feel like they can just show up and win.

We saw a similar situation last year in which Troy was coming off a huge win over Appalachian State.  They moved into the Top 25 after that win, then promptly lost at home to Arkansas State 3-35 as 8-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 40 points.  The Trojans cannot be laying this kind of price given the terrible spot they are in mentally.

The South Alabama Jaguars have played a brutal schedule as they opened with Ole Miss and Oklahoma State.  They got right in a 45-0 win over Alabama A&M the next week, then lost in overtime to Idaho before falling 16-34 at LA Tech.  But that was a 17-16 game against LA Tech in the fourth quarter and a misleading final.

South Alabama gets some good news this week as starting QB Cole Garvin will be in the lineup.  He has missed 2.5 games due to injury, and that has been a big reason for their early struggles, along with the tough schedule.  I look for a big effort from the Jaguars here against their in-state rivals.

Troy has been overvalued all season up until that LSU game, going 1-4 ATS in its five games.  It only won 27-24 at New Mexico State as 9-point favorites, and 22-17 at home over Akron as 17-point favorites.  Those two results right there show that the Trojans can't be laying these big numbers.

This has become a bigger rivalry than most know, and I love big dogs in rivalry games.  The dog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  South Alabama only lost 34-33 at Troy in 2013 as 3.5-point dogs, won 27-13 at home in 2014 as 16-point favorites, won 24-18 at Troy as 6-point dogs in 2014, and covered as 9.5-point home dogs last year in a 21-28 loss.   As you can see, each of the last four meetings have been decided by 14 points or less, and three of those 7 points or fewer.

Plays on road teams (S ALABAMA) - after having lost three out of their last four games, in the first half of the season are 84-46 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  South Alabama is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games in the first half of the season.  Troy is 0-6 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last two seasons.  The Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Troy is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  The Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.  Bet South Alabama Wednesday.

25* MLB Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Diamondbacks +102

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing great value as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers today.  So much so that they've earned my MLB Divisional Round Game of the Year status.  Look for them to extend this series with a Game 3 victory.

The key here is that the Diamondbacks will be starting Zack Greinke, who simply does not lose at home.  Greinke is 13-1 with a 3.08 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 19 home starts this season.  He has gone 4-4 with a 3.74 ERA in 11 career starts against the Dodgers, including 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in his last two starts against them.

Yu Darvish finished the regular season strong, but his final three starts came against San Diego, Philadelphia and San Francisco.  He is 10-12 with a 3.81 ERA in 31 starts this year.  Now he's up against a different animal in this potent Diamondbacks lineup.

Greinke is 16-3 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.  The Diamondbacks are 10-1 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series.  The Dodgers are 0-6 in road games off four straight wins against division rivals over the last three seasons.  Arizona is 7-3 in its last 10 home meetings with Los Angeles.  Take the Diamondbacks Monday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +3

The Chicago Bears have decided to start their No. 2 overall pick in Mitchell Trubisky against the Minnesota Vikings this week.  It was perfect timing because the Bears played last Thursday, giving Trubisky a full week and a half of prep time to get ready for the Vikings on Monday.

Teams coming off a Thursday game are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season.  The Chiefs & Patriots both covered in Week 2, the Texans & Bengals both covered in Week 3, and the Rams and 49ers both covered in Week 4.  That extra rest is huge in the NFL, and I look for a big performance from the Bears Monday thanks to it.

The Bears have played two monster home games this season and really should be 2-0.  If not for a couple drops at the end, they would have beaten the Falcons in Week 1.  Instead they lost 17-23 as 6.5-point dogs.  Then they won outright as 7-point dogs in a 23-17 overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3.  The Falcons and Steelers are two of the best teams in the NFL.

Mike Glennon has killed the Bears with all of his turnovers.  The Bears have given the ball away a league-most 10 times and are -7 in turnover differential this season.  That's why the switch to Trubisky was warranted, and he lit it up in the preseason and clearly has the higher upside.

The Bears lost 14-35 at Green Bay last Thursday, but that final was misleading and has them undervalued here.  They gave the game away with four turnovers and many short fields for the Packers.  Their defense played well, limiting the Packers to just 260 total yards.  This is an underrated Bears stop unit that ranks No. 8 in the NFL in total defense.

The Vikings lost their best playmaker in Dalvin Cook to a season-ending ACL injury last week.  He had rushed for 354 yards in three-plus games.  Now it's Latavius Murray and his bum ankle that's supposed to replace him.  Well, Murray will be making his season debut and clearly isn't 100%.

"To be honest, I think I'm still getting to that point," said Murray, 27, who spent the previous three seasons with the Oakland Raiders. "It's not going to quite feel the same for awhile. I knew that dealing with my previous ankle procedure. For me, it's being well enough to be out there and being able to help the team be successful. I feel good enough to be out there, and I'm confident in myself that I can play at a high level."

The Vikings have been without Sam Bradford for the past three games because of a knee injury, and he is still questionable to play Monday night.  Even if he does go, he won't be 100% and will be nursing that knee injury.  And if backup Case Keenum starts again it will be a bonus for us.  But either way, the Vikings shouldn't be favored by a field goal on the road here.

That's especially the case when you consider the Bears are 8-1 straight up in their last nine home meetings with the Vikings.  They won 20-10 at home last season as 5.5-point dogs on Monday Night Football.  The Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Chicago.  The home team is 21-8 ATS in the last 29 meetings.

Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Monday Night games.  The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams who average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 7-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35.5 to 42 over the last three years.  These last three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Chicago.  Bet the Bears Monday.

15* Indians/Yankees ALDS Game 3 No-Brainer on OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this Game 3 showdown between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Indians.  Both teams went through their bullpens in their 13-inning marathon in Game 2, a 9-8 Indians win.

Masahiro Tanaka has been shaky all season.  He is 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA in 30 starts this season.  Tanaka is also 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in four career starts against Cleveland.  The OVER is 3-1 in those four games.

Carlos Carrasco has had a very good season for the Indians, but he hasn't fared well against the Yankees.  Carrasco is 3-5 with a 4.44 ERA in nine career starts against them.  He gave up 5 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in his lone start against New York this season.  The OVER is 6-3 in his nine starts against them.

New York is 13-3 OVER when playing against a team with a 62% winning percentage or better this season.  Carrasco is 9-1 OVER after giving up one or fewer earned runs in each of his last two outings over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 10-0 in Carracso's last 10 starts when working on 9 or more days' rest.  Bet the OVER in Game 3 Sunday.

15* Packers/Cowboys NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas -2

The Dallas Cowboys are going to be pissed off from their home loss to the Rams last week.  That was a tough spot for them as they were coming off a Monday night game, while the Rams were coming off a Thursday game.  I was on the Rams last week because of the spot.

This week I'm hopping on the motivated Cowboys, who will be out for revenge after losing to the Packers 31-34 at home in the playoffs last year.  That came after they had beaten the Packers 30-16 in the regular season on the road.  The Cowboys outgained the Packers in both meetings and were clearly the better team.  I think that's the case again in 2017.

The Packers come in overvalued off their 35-14 win over the Bears last week.  But that score couldn't have been more misleading.  The Bears gave the game away by committing four turnovers.  They actually held the Packers to just 260 total yards in that game.  And the week before, the Packers never led the Bengals until overtime in a 27-24 victory as 7-point home favorites.

This is a Packers offense that is in a world of hurt right no due to all the injuries.  They have been playing without their two starting tackles in David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga, and it's questionable whether they'll return this week.  And two key playmakers in RB Ty Montgomery and WR Davante Adams got hurt against Chicago, and both are expected to miss this game.

The Cowboys have been fortunate in the health department.  They have no key injuries on offense.  All of their injuries have been on defense, and for the most part they are healthy.  Sean Lee missed last week with a hamstring injury and there's a chance he could return this week.  Anthony Hitchens, Chidobe Awuzie and Nolan Carroll are all questionable as well.  But they get back DL David Irving from suspension, and he's an impact player up front.

The Packers are actually below .500 on the road since 2011.  They are 3-13 on the road against playoff teams since 2011.  And the Cowboys are likely to be a playoff team this season.  The Packers were overmatched in their only road game this season, losing 23-34 at Atlanta.  That was a 34-10 game entering the fourth quarter before Green Bay tacked on two touchdowns in garbage time.

Green Bay has been vulnerable against the run this season, giving up 111 rushing yards per game.  And they haven't seen a ground attack as good as the Cowboys.  Dallas is averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.  They will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football in this one, which will be the key to their victory.

Dallas is 6-0 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in their previous game over the past two seasons. Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - off two or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Seahawks/Rams NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -1

The Los Angeles Rams still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers and the betting public.  Most believe that their 3-1 start is a fluke, but I'm a buyer on this team, and I certainly think they are better than the Seahawks right now.  That's why we'll pull the trigger on the Rams as only 1-point favorites against the Seahawks here.

The Rams lead the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 35.5 points per game and 6.5 yards per play on the season.  Jared Goff is averaging a whopping 9 yards per pass attempt while completing 67.5% of his passes.  Sean McVay is working wonders with Goff right now as one of the best offensive minds in the game.

The Seahawks keep getting treated like they are Super Bowl contenders from the betting public and oddsmakers.  As a result, they've gone just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS, consistently being overvalued this year.  And they looked terrible for a half against the Colts, actually trailing 10-15 going into halftime.  I don't think one good half against an awful Colts team changes my opinion on this team as they ended up cruising to a 46-18 victory.

The Rams are extremely healthy right now, which is about the only thing that has been lucky with this team thus far.  The same cannot be said for the Seahawks.  Seattle had mass injuries in the win over the Colts.  They lost another starting lineman in Rees Odhiambo.  CB Jeremy Lane and DE Cliff Avril were both knocked out, as was RB Chris Carson.  Both Carson and Avril will be out for this game, while Lane, Odhiambo and CB Neiko Thorpe are all questionable for this contest.

The Rams have had the Seahawks' number in recent meetings.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The key to their success has been their dominant defensive line up against a suspect Seattle offensive line.  It will be more of the same here as the Rams will win the battle in the trenches, and it will take a Russell Wilson miracle to overcome all of their offensive line woes.  He hasn't been able to in recent meetings with Aaron Donald and the Rams.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last two seasons.  The Seahawks are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games off a blowout home win by 21 points or more.  Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.  Look for a rejuvenated Rams' fan base to come out in bunches for this key divisional game.

Plays on favorites (LA RAMS) - after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Rams Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals -2.5

The Cincinnati Bengals felt like they should have beaten the Packers in Week 3.  They led the entire way until overtime, and lost 24-27 as 7-point road dogs at Lambeau Field.  They dropped to 0-3 and easily could have quit on their season.

Instead, they showed a ton of fight in a 31-7 win at Cleveland as 3.5-point favorites, playing their best game of the season.  Andy Dalton has shown a ton of resiliency after a disastrous start to the season.  He has completed 46-of-57 passes (80.7%) for 498 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games.

At 1-3 on the season, the Bengals feel like they still have their backs against the wall.  They cannot afford to take any games off moving forward.  They need this win here at home against the Bills.  And they won't be looking ahead to their game against the Steelers because they get a bye next week.  They will be 100% focused on beating the Bills here. 

This team now has the belief, especially with their motivational leader in Vontaze Burfict returning from suspension last week.  It's no coincidence that the defense came through with their best effort last week, limiting the Browns to just 7 points and 215 total yards.  This is a defense that is now giving up just 16.7 points, 273 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.

The offense came to life the last two weeks as well, and that should continue moving forward with all of the talent they have on this side of the ball.  They still boast A.J. Green and the three-headed monster at running back in Joe Mixon, Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard.  And Dalton has clearly found a way to get his weapons the ball with efficiency the last two weeks.

The Buffalo Bills are feeling fat and happy right now after their surprising 3-1 start.  After beating the Broncos at home, the Bills got a huge break last week when both Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu were knocked out of the game with injuries.  Clearly, the Falcons are just an average team without those two.  And the Bills took advantage and pulled the 23-17 road upset as 8-point dogs.  Now, this is a clear letdown spot for Buffalo.

I think these teams are pretty evenly-matched defensively as the Bills also have a very good D.  But there's no question the Bengals have the better offense.  The Bills are averaging just 18.2 points, 284 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play offensively. They are only averaging 3.4 yards per carry and 171 passing yards per game.

Tyrod Taylor has done a good job of keeping the Bills in games by not turning the ball over.  In fact, the Bills have committed just one turnover all season, compared to eight for Cincinnati.  There is going to be some regression to the mean here as the Bills are +6 in turnover differential, while the Bengals are -5. 

And now Taylor is going to be without leading receiver Jordan Matthews (10 receptions, 162 yards, 16.2/catch), who is expected to miss the next 3-4 weeks with a thumb injury. This Bills team hasn't been as good as their record as they are actually getting outgained by 22 yards per game on the season and dead even in yards per play.  The Bengals are better than their record, outgaining teams by 19 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play.

Cincinnati is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 games after leading the previous game by 14 points or more at the half.  Buffalo is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games versus good defensive teams that allow 4.75 or fewer yards per play this season.

Plays on favorites (CINCINNATI) - after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* Stanford/Utah Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +6

The Utah Utes are coming off a bye week having last played on Friday, September 22nd in a gutsy 30-24 road win to improve to 4-0 on the season.  They lost starting QB Tyler Huntley in the first half of that game, yet still found a way to win.  Now they'll be the fresher, more prepared team heading into this showdown with Stanford.

It helps that the Utes have a veteran backup in Troy Williams, who started all 13 games for them last year while leading the Utes to a 9-4 campaign.  He is one of the best backups in the country and isn't a very big downgrade at all from Huntley.  I think oddsmakers are adjusting way too much here for the Huntley injury.

Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City is one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country.  It feels like the fans are right on top of you because they are so close to the field.  The Utes have gone 12-3 at home over the past three seasons, and all three losses have come by a touchdown or less.

I think the Bryce Love Heisman hype after back-to-back huge games has Stanford overrated right now.  But he did his damage against two of the worst defenses in the country in UCLA and Arizona State the past two weeks.  Now Love will be up against a stout Utah defense that is allowing only 86 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry this season.

Stanford is still limited in the passing game, only once topping 173 passing yards this season, and that was in the opener against Rice.  I think Utah's ability to stop love and the Stanford ground attack will be the key to them not only covering, but likely winning this game outright Saturday night.

Kyle Whittingham has had Stanford's number in recent meetings.  The Utes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings.  They won outright as 10-point road dogs in 2014, and outright as 7.5-point home dogs in 2013.  They simply match up well with the Cardinal because they play similar styles.

And one thing that always gets overlooked by bettors with Utah is their dominant special teams, which is one of the best units in the land year after year.  Reigning Ray Guy Award winner Mitch Wishnowky is averaging 46.8 yards per punt, and the Utes are giving up -1 net yards per punt this season, so they're fielding well.  Also, Matt Gay is 14-for-14 on field goal attempts this season, leading the nation in scoring.  Special teams could easily be the difference in this type of game.

Utah is 63-35 ATS in its last 98 games as a dog, including 36-19 ATS in its last 55 games as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points.  The Utes are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  Take Utah Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas -3.5

The Texas Longhorns are improving rapidly right now under Tom Herman.  After losing to Maryland in the opener, they've gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games, covering the spread by a combined 50 points in the process.  They beat San Jose State 56-0, took USC to overtime on the road, and picked up a nice 17-7 road win at Iowa State in their Big 12 opener.  They remain undervalued here as only 3.5-point home favorites against Kansas State.

That game against Iowa State was playing last Thursday, giving them a mini-bye week to get ready for this game, which is certainly an advantage.  I think the Longhorns will be focused for this game because they are just 2-2, whereas if they were 4-0 they could be looking ahead to Oklahoma.  Herman won't let them look ahead to that game given the situation.  This 3.5-point spread looks short to me.

Kansas State has been shaky the last two weeks against two mediocre teams.  Their lost 7-14 at Vanderbilt, and that loss looks even worse after Vandy lost by 59 to Alabama and 14 to Florida.  Then they only beat a winless Baylor team 33-20 at home last week.  They were actually outgained by 31 yards by the Bears.

The Wildcats are a one-dimensional team that can only run the ball.  In the last two games against Vanderbilt and Baylor, they have gone a combined 17-of-45 passing for 195 yards.  That's just 38% completions and 98 passing yards per game.

That makes this an excellent matchup for the Longhorns.  Texas has held its last three opponents to just 123 rushing yards on 75 attempts, or a measly 1.6 yards per carry.  Their defensive front seven is clearly one of the best units in the country, and that will be the key to them winning and covering this measly 3.5-point spread at home Saturday.

Texas is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games off a two-game road trip.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* Cubs/Nationals NLDS Game 2 No-Brainer on Washington -124

With the series basically on the line here for the Washington Nationals, I think we're getting them at a tremendous value as only -124 home favorites over the Chicago Cubs.  I expect them to respond in a big way here Saturday after dropping Game 1.

The Nationals have the clear edge on the mound with Gio Gonzalez, who is 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in 32 starts this season, including 4-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in 15 home starts.  Gonzalez is also 3-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 10 career starts against Chicago.

Jon Lester has just been erratic all season and I don't expect that to change in the postseason.  Lester has gone 13-8 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.317 WHIP in 32 starts, 6-5 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.384 WHIP in 14 road starts, and 2-1 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in his last three outings.

Gonzalez is 16-4 (+12.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last three seasons.  The Cubs are 0-6 in their last six road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Washington is 16-5 in Gonzalez's last 21 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Nationals Saturday.

15* LSU/Florida SEC No-Brainer on LSU +3.5

The LSU Tigers were thoroughly embarrassed with their 21-24 home loss to Troy as 20.5-point favorites.  They have been taking grief in the media all week, and they really just can't wait to get out and hit somebody Saturday to take out their frustration.  I fully expect the best performance of the season from LSU given their mental state coming into this game against Florida.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that they were upset 10-16 at home by Florida as 13.5-point favorites last year.  They haven't forgotten about it.  There's no way they should have lost that game either as they outgained the Gators by 153 yards for the game.  Their red zone struggles were the difference, and Florida's only TD was a fluke 98-yard TD pass to Tyrie Cleveland.

The Gators continue to be the most lucky team in college football.  They could easily be 0-4 right now instead of 3-1.  They won on a hail mary on the final play against Tennessee, scored in the closing seconds to beat Kentucky 28-27, and only led Vanderbilt 31-24 in the final seconds before breaking a long TD run when they could have just run out the clock.

And those wins clearly don't look that good now.  Tennessee was beaten 41-0 at home by Georgia, Vanderbilt was beaten 59-0 at home by Alabama, and Kentucky only beat Eastern Michigan 24-20 at home last week.  This Florida team is a fraud, and it showed against a team of LSU's caliber in their opener in a 17-33 loss to Michigan.  The Gators were outgained by 241 yards by the Wolverines.

This is where all those Florida injuries and suspensions catches up to them like it did against a team the class of Michigan.  Plus, the Gators are now expected to be without leading receiver Tyrie Cleveland (15 receptions, 326 yards, 2 TD, 21.7/reception), who is doubtful with an ankle injury suffered in that win over Vanderbilt last week.  To say the Gators are lacking playmakers on offense would be a massive understatement.

Conversely, LSU gets some good news on the injury front as star RB Derrius Guice is probable to play Saturday.  He sat out last week's game against Troy, which was a big reason they were upset.  He rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 TD while averaging 7.6/carry last year.  Not to mention, fellow starters DE Rashard Lawrence and LB Corey Thompson are both probable to play as well.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FLORIDA) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1992.  LSU is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 road games following a loss.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six October games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Gators are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games, and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  LSU is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Florida. Take LSU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas +17.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are in a huge flat spot here against Kansas.  After pulling off the 27-24 upset at Houston, the Red Raiders had their shot to upset Oklahoma State at home last week, but fell just short with a 35-42 loss.  After playing one of the top teams in the country, they certainly aren't going to be able to get up for Kansas this week.

And I think the Red Raiders are getting way too much respect for what they've done the last two weeks.  I think Houston is way down this season compared to last year, and a closer look at the Oklahoma State game shows that it was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate.  The Cowboys outgained the Red Raiders by 213 yards.  Texas Tech had a 95-yard INT return TD, and Oklahoma State settled for several short field goals, missing a couple of them as well.

One key to this game is that Texas Tech is going to be without leading receiver Keke Coutee, who suffered a knee injury against Oklahoma State and is doubtful to play this week.  Nic Shimonek looked lost without him against the Cowboys.  Coutee is by far the leading receiver on this game, catching 31 balls for 499 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 16.1 yards per reception.

Texas Tech has been a terrible road team in recent years.  We saw them losing 10-66 at Iowa State last year a week after narrowly falling short against Oklahoma State in a 44-45 loss.  This is the exact same situation against a Big 12 bottom feeder in Kansas.

But the Jayhawks are steadily improving in the third season under David Beaty.  They have been competitive in all four of their games this year.  Their offense has taken a big step forward, averaging 32.2 points and 480 yards per game thus far.  Of course their defense isn't very good, but it's not much worse than that of Texas Tech, which fields one of the worst defenses in the country every year.

This offense put up 34 points and 564 total yards against West Virgina in their last game.  Now the Jayhawks have had two full weeks to prepare for Texas Tech after getting a bye last week.  That's a big advantage and one that will be useful for a team like Kansas.  

This is a Kansas team that was competitive at home last year, only losing 23-24 to TCU as 28-point dogs, losing 24-31 to Iowa State as 11-point dogs, and actually upsetting Texas 24-21 as 23-point dogs.  They have what it takes to hang with Texas Tech, especially given the situation.

Kansas is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games coming in.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.  Kansas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Red Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tulane -4

Willie Fritz is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He put Georgia Southern on the map by taking them to the Sun Belt title in 2014 and their first ever bowl win in 2015.  Now just look how far Georgia Southern has fallen since his departure.

Fritz took the Tulane job knowing it would be a rebuilding process.  Year 1 was a struggle as the Green Wave went just 4-8.  Fritz brought his spread offense to Tulane in '16 and did not have the right personnel to run it. Now he does, and he welcomed back a whopping 16 starters this year, while recruiting the perfect dual-threat QB in Jonathan Banks.

The Green Wave have opened 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in 2017 and are clearly undervalued.  They beat Grambline 43-14, gave Navy all they wanted as 8-point road dogs in a 21-23 loss, and beat Army 21-17 at home as 3-point favorites.  And they should have covered against Oklahoma and actually had a 14-7 lead over the Sooners in the second quarter before falling apart after half.

Tulane had a bye last week.  It couldn't have come at a better time following that brutal three-game stretch against Navy, Oklahoma and Army.  So they'll be fresh and ready to go Saturday against a tired, undermanned Tulsa team that will be playing their 6th game in 6 weeks.

This was clearly going to be a rebuilding year for Tulsa after all they lost in the offseason.  They lost all of their top skill players on offense, and have opened 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS through five games.  Their last two games have been particularly concerning.

They lost 13-16 at home to New Mexico as 7.5-point favorites.  New Mexico was starting its third-string quarterback due to injury, and the Lobos should have won by more as they outgained Tulsa by 160 yards.  Then they had to play Navy last week, getting outgained by 167 yards in a 21-31 home loss.

Tulsa has been hit in the mouth by some elite rushing attacks this season, and they haven't offered any resistance.  The Golden Hurricane are giving up a ridiculous 320 rushing yards per game and 6.7 per carry this season.  That makes this a terrible matchup for them against a Tulane team that will shove it down their throat, too.

The Green Wave are averaging 244 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  And it's clearly that the Green Wave have one of the better defenses in the AAC.  They are giving up 27.5 points, 388 yards per game and 6.2 per play against opponents that average 31.3 points, 428 yards per game and 6.8 per play.  So they have been well better than average defensively.  That can't be said for Tulsa, which is giving up 40.4 points, 574 yards per game and 8.2 per play.

Tulane is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Tulsa is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Green Wave have only committed two turnovers in four games.  Fritz is 17-6 ATS as a favorite in all games he has coached.  Fritz is 12-1 ATS after playing a non-conference game as a head coach.  Roll with Tulane Saturday.

15* Cubs/Nationals NL No-Brainer on Chicago +148

We are getting great value on the Cubs as +148 underdogs in Game 1 of this series with the Washington Nationals.  The Cubs are the defending world champs and will be more relaxed because of it, while all the pressure is on the Nationals to get over the hump in this series.

Kyle Hendricks has gone 7-5 with a 3.03 ERA in 24 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA in 11 road starts.  Hendricks closed the season strong, going 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his final three starts.  Hendricks is also 2-2 with a 2.67 ERA in five career starts against Washington, so there's a lot to like about him here.

Stephen Strasburg has little postseason experience due to injuries throughout his career.  We saw Hendricks step his game up in the postseason last year, and I'm not sure Strasburg is ready to do the same.  He's got great numbers this year, but I just don't trust him in this spot.

Chicago is 15-4 in road games off a loss by two runs or less this season.  The Cubs are 23-5 in their last 28 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Nationals are 1-5 in their last six playoff home games.  Roll with the Cubs Friday.

20* Memphis/UConn AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UConn +14

The Memphis Tigers have been extremely overrated this season.  They are 3-1 SU but just 1-3 ATS.  They are getting way too much respect for their 48-45 home win over UCLA in Week 3.  That was a 9:00 AM local time start for UCLA and they simply weren't ready to play.  And the fact of the matter is that UCLA team just isn't very good, especially defensively.

The other three games have been very concerning for Memphis.  They only beat Louisiana Monroe 37-29 as 28-point home favorites and FCS foe Southern Illinois 44-31 as 30-point home favorites.  Then I had UCF as my 25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR last week against Memphis, and the Golden Knights rolled to a 40-13 home victory over the Tigers as 5.5-point favorites.  As you can see, the Tigers haven't even come close to covering the spread in any of those three games.

Now Memphis is being asked to go on the road for just the second time this season and lay two touchdowns to Connecticut.  Of course, the Huskies are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS on the season, so oddsmakers have to set the number high to try and even out the action.  But I've seen some signs from the Huskies here lately that make be believe they can hang with Memphis.

The 18-38 loss at Virginia doesn't look so bad now after Virginia went into Boise State and crushed them 42-23 as 13.5-point underdogs.  UConn then lost to ECU 38-41 in a game that was dead even in total yards.  The Huskies then played an upstart SMU team that is covering spreads left and right and lost 28-49 on the road as 16.5-point dogs.  But that was a 28-28 game in the 4th quarter before the Mustangs scored three touchdowns in a seven-minute span to pull away.  It was a misleading final score.  And that SMU team is better than Memphis.

I've been most impressed with Randy Edsall's ability to bring this UConn offense to life.  The Huskies are averaging 27.7 points, 467 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  They are right there with Memphis statistically.  The Tigers are scoring 35.5 points, averaging 459 yards per game and 6.4 per play.  UConn QB Bryant Sherrifs has been a revelation, completing 68.9 percent of his passes for 1,165 yards with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 11 yards per attempt.

Neither team offers much to like defensively.  The Tigers are giving up 36.2 points, 513 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  The Huskies are yielding 37.0 points, 542 yards per game and 6.8 per play.  So give the Tigers a slight edge defensively, but not much.  Given the closeness of the stats and the home-field advantage for the Huskies, there's no way they should be catching two touchdowns here.

Mike Norvell is 0-6 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of Memphis.  UConn is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent.  The Tigers are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Memphis is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 games on grass.  

Plays against road favorites (MEMPHIS) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 59-26 (69.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet UConn Friday.

15* Red Sox/Astros AL Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +167

The series is on the line here for the Boston Red Sox.  I think the value is right to pull the trigger here on them in Game 2 after losing 2-8 in Game 1.  I don't think there's that big of a difference between these two starting pitchers.

Drew Pomeranz is 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA in 32 starts, including 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 15 road starts.  He has given up just 3 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings for a 1.62 ERA in his last three starts against Houston, two of which have come this season.

No question Dallas Keuchel is a stud at 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA in 23 starts.  However, he has not fared well against the Red Sox, going 0-1 with a 7.62 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in two career starts against them.  He has allowed 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 22 base runners over 13 innings in those two starts.

Pomeranz is 8-1 (+8.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better) over the last two seasons.  Pomeranz is 8-0 (+10.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  Keuchel is 12-14 (-14.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons.  Take the Red Sox Friday.

20* Pats/Bucs NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 56

All the talk coming into this game is how poor the defenses have been playing for both the Bucs and Patriots.  That has forced oddsmakers to post an inflated number, and now the value is clearly with the UNDER 56 points in this matchup Thursday night.

The Patriots have been the worst defensive team in the NFL thus far.  What are the chances of it remaining that way moving forward with Bill Belichick at the helm?  Slim to none.  I look for a big effort from the Patriots' defense in this one to try and prove their naysayers wrong.

And you can bet that Tom Brady and company will be trying to help out the defense as much as possible.  And that means slowing down the pace, moving the chains, and keeping the defense off the field.  Look for the Patriots to go to more of a ball control offense moving forward until the defense catches up.

Injuries were a big reason why the Bucs gave up 34 points at Minnesota in Week 3.  But they are expected to have both Kwon Alexander and Brent Grimes in this one, two players they didn't have in that game.  Plus T.J. Ward could return from a quad injury.

The Bucs have a ton of talent on defense and will be fine moving forward.  They have been much better at home this season, limiting their two opponents to just 15.0 points per game.  I believe they'll fare better against the Patriots on that side of the ball than most are expecting.

Tampa Bay has had to rely on the pass too much in the early going, only averaging 85 rushing yards per game.  But they should have more balance now with Doug Martin returning from his three-game suspension.  More runs means the clock will keep moving with fewer incompletions, which aids the under.

Plays on the UNDER on roadteams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after going over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, after the first month of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) over the last 10 seasons.  After four straight overs by the Patriots to open the season, this number is simply inflated.  We'll go against the public perception here and back the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Louisville/NC State ACC No-Brainer on NC State +4.5

The NC State Wolfpack are a team I had pegged as a big sleeper to win the Atlantic Division coming into the year.  They returned 17 starters, a stud QB in Ryan Finley, and one of the best defensive lines in the country.  From what I've seen so far, they will be right there until the end.

NC State should be 5-0.  They lost the opener 28-35 to South Carolina despite outgaining the Gamecocks by 258 yards.  That loss has kept them under the radar.  They have reeled off four straight wins since, beating Marshall, Furman and Syracuse at home, and then pulling the impressive 27-21 upset as 10.5-point road dogs at Florida State that really shows what they're capable of.

Louisville gets a lot of love from the betting public because of Heisman Trophy winner, Lamar Jackson.  But this team really isn't that good despite their 4-1 record.  They have gone 1-4 ATS with their only cover coming by a half-point 47-35 at UNC as 11.5-point favorites.  Well, UNC is 1-4 this season.  They lost 21-47 at home to Clemson in a game that shows what their real potential is.

NC State is going to want revenge from an ugly 54-13 loss at Louisville last season.  That will show up from the Wolfpack defense that features eight senior starters.  They have given up just 20.5 points per game since allowing 35 points to South Carolina despite holding the Gamecocks to 246 total yards, so that point total was a fluke.  Their Run D will be key here stopping Lamar Jackson.  The Wolfpack are only giving up 86 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season.

And Finley and company should find plenty of success against a leaky Louisville defense that has allowed 28 or more points in the three games against Power 5 opponents outside Kent State and Murray State.  Finley is completing 71.9% of his passes for 1,403 yards with a 9-to-0 TD/INT ratio on the season.  The Wolfpack have only committed two turnovers all season, while the Cardinals have given the ball away 10 times and can be very sloppy with it at times.

Dave Doeren is 9-2 ATS off two or more consecutive wins as the coach of NC State.  Louisville is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games.  Take NC State Thursday.

15* Yankees/Indians ALDS Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on New York +133

The New York Yankees are a sleeping giant in the American League.  They showed some guts overcoming a 3-0 deficit with Luis Severino getting knocked out after 1/3 of an inning in an 8-4 win over the Twins.  Now they come into this series with the Indians with a ton of confidence after having already felt postseason pressure.

The Yankees made the trade for Sonny Gray just for this situation.  He has held up well this season, going 10-12 with a 3.55 ERA in 27 starts, including 3-7 with a 3.11 ERA in 12 road starts.  Gray is 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in eight career starts against Cleveland.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs and 9 base runners over 12 innings in his last two starts against the Indians this season.  And he's backed by a bullpen that is arguably the best in baseball.

I think the Indians are making a mistake here starting the erratic Trevor Bauer instead of ace Corey Kluber in Game 1 of this series tonight.  Terry Francona will be getting questioned after this one.  Bauer is 17-9 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.366 WHIP In 31 starts this year.  Bauer is 3-4 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.511 WHIP in eight career starts against the Yankees.

The Yankees are 8-1 (+9.2 Units) against the money line revenging a 3-game sweep at the hands of their opponents over the last three seasons.  They were swept at home by the Indians from August 28-30 after taking two of three from the Indians August 4-6.  Look for them to steal Game 1 here tonight.  Roll with the Yankees Thursday.

20* Rockies/DBacks NL Wild Card Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 8.5

Two of the more underrated starters in the big league square off in this NL Wild Card game between Arizona and Colorado.  I think the books have set the bar too high with this total, and it will easily stay UNDER the 8.5 runs.

Zack Greinke deserves Cy Young consideration, going 17-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.072 WHIP in 32 starts, including 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 18 home starts.  The Arizona bullpen has a respectable 3.78 ERA this season and is vastly improved this year.

Jon Gray is 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.296 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  He's backed by a Colorado bullpen with a 3.44 ERA on the road this season.  Gray has given up just 7 earned runs in 18 innings across three starts against Arizona this season.  Greinke has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts against Colorado.

The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Rockies last 51 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Rockies last seven road games.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Gray's last 10 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 16-6-4 in Greinke's last 26 starts.  The UNDER is 5-1-2 in the last eight meetings in Arizona.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in Greinke's last four starts vs. Colorado.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Twins/Yankees AL Wild Card No-Brainer on New York -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees should have no problem beating the Minnesota Twins by two runs or more here.  The Yankees have the better starter, better bullpen and better lineup in this winner-take-all Wild Card game.

Luis Severino is 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  Hhe has 230 K's in 193 1/3 innings.  He's backed by a bullpen with a 3.36 ERA in all games and a 3.22 ERA in home games.  He's also backed by a lineup that averages 5.6 runs per game at home.

Ervin Santana has been one of the more lucky starters in the big leagues at 16-8 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.126 WHIP in 33 starts.  He has only 167 K's in 211 1/3 innings.  The Twins have a 4.35 bullpen ERA overall and a 4.40 ERA on the road.  Their lineup his scoring 4.9 runs per game on the road.

Santana is 6-10 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.517 WHIP in 20 career starts against New York.  The Yankees are 8-1 against Minnesota in their last nine home meetings, winning by 2 runs per game on average.  The Twins are 5-21 in their last 26 playoff games, including 0-5 n their last five playoff road games.   The Yankees are 13-3 in Severino's last 16 starts, and 13-3 in their last 16 home games.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Redskins/Chiefs UNDER 49.5

The books have set the bar way too high in this matchup between the Washington Redskins and Kansas City Chiefs Monday night.  I full expect a defensive battle here and for points to be much harder to come by than this 49.5-point total would suggest.

One of the surprises of this young season is just how well the Redskins have played defensively.  They are only giving up 20.0 points, 272 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 29.4 points, 348 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 9.4 points, 76 yards and 0.7 yards per play less than their season average.

Of course, nobody has had a better defensive performance than the Redskins had last week in dismantling the Raiders 27-10.  That was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They held the Raiders to just 128 total yards and forced three turnovers.  That's very impressive when you consider how much talent is on that Oakland offense.

The Chiefs have played well offensively thus far, but they won't keep up this pace as this is still a limited offense.  More than anything, the Chiefs have been winning with defense once again.  They are giving up just 19.0 points per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that average 24.9 points and 6.0 yards per play.  Despite playing some very good offenses, both defenses have really shown well thus far.

Both teams are actually relying very heavily on the run this season, which is going to keep the clock moving.  The Redskins are rushing for 136 yards per game while the Chiefs are averaging 162 yards per game on the ground.  And both quarterbacks have been extremely accurate with the Chiefs completing 77.4% of their passes, and the Redskins 68.0%.  But a lot of that is due to dink and dunk, which is a good way to move the ball down the field, but you won't see type of explosive plays in this one that would normally kill an under.

Washington is a perfect 10-0 UNDER in its last 10 Monday Night football road games.  Kansas City is 8-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Chiefs are 6-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams averaging 350 or more yards per game over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday night.

20* Raiders/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver -2.5

The Denver Broncos were in a tough spot last week.  They were traveling on the road for the first time after coming off a huge 42-17 win over the Cowboys, and with an even bigger game against the Raiders on deck.  It's forgivable that they lost out East to the Buffalo Bills, who have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the NFL.

According to this 2.5-point spread, the betting public is down on the Broncos all of a sudden.  And they're quick to forgive the Raiders for their 10-27 loss at Washington.  But that was easily the worst performance of the week from any team.  The Raiders managed just 118 total yards and committed three turnovers against a very shaky Washington defense.  They were outgained by a whopping 344 yards in the loss!

Denver lost 16-26 at Buffalo, but that was a misleading final.  The Broncos actually outgained the Bills by 94 yards.  And on the season, the Broncos are outgaining teams by 93 yards per game.  Their offense has produced 27.3 points and 356 yards per game, while their defense may be the best in the NFL, giving up 21.3 points, 263 yards per game and 4.4 per play.  The Raiders give up 6.2 yards per play for comparison.

The Broncos beat the Raiders 24-6 as 1-point home favorites last year.  They held the Raiders to just 221 total yards.  They do have the best pass defense in the NFL, which is why they match up so well with Derek Carr and the Raiders.  The Broncos have won four of their last five home meetings with the Raiders overall.

Trevor Siemian is better than he gets credit for.  He is completing 63% of his passes for 709 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 7.1 per attempt.  The Denver rushing attack is working well behind the two-headed monster of C.J. Anderson (235 yards, 4.4/carry) and Jamaal Charles (142 yards, 4.1/carry).  And the Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders form one of the more underrated WR duos in the NFL.

The Broncos are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Denver is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games following a loss.  The favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series.  The Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

15* 49ers/Cardinals NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco +7

I have cashed in the 49ers as a premium pick each of the last two weeks.  They covered as 14-point road dogs in a 12-9 loss at Seattle, and snuck in the cover as 3-point dogs in a 39-41 loss to the Rams last week.  I'm on them again this week because I think they are better than oddsmakers and the betting public give them credit for.

I'm also on them because of the tremendous scheduling advantage.  The 49ers played last Thursday, giving them a mini-bye week.  Teams coming off Thursday games are 4-0 ATS this season, and I cashed in both the Bengals and Texans in this same spot last week.

Making the spot even better for the 49ers is the fact that the Cardinals are working on a short week after losing 17-28 at home to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  The Cardinals are broken right now without David Johnson, and it's clear that Carson Palmer needs to retire.  There's no way Arizona should be laying 7 points here.

After playing two very great defenses in the Panthers and Seahawks the first two weeks, the 49ers finally got on track offensively against another good defense in the Rams last week.  They racked up 421 yards and 39 points against the Rams.  Brian Hoyer threw for 332 yards, while Carlos Hyde rushed for 84 yards and two scores.  Pierre Garcon showed why he was their prized offseason acquisition, catching 7 balls for 142 yards in the loss.

The Cardinals have obviously been terrible offensively, but their defense has surprisingly taken a step back this year.  They are giving up 25.3 points per game on the season.  I think Kyle Shanahan, one of the best offensive minds in the game, will utilize this extra prep time to take advantages of the holes that have been showing up in this Arizona defense.

San Francisco only lost 20-23 at Arizona last year.  That was a bad 49ers team, much worse than the 2017 version.  And the Cardinals were much better last year than they are this season.  I'm not so sure that there's much difference in these teams talent-wise right now, which is why the 49ers shouldn't be catching a touchdown.

Plays on any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NFC West opponents.  The Cardinals are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The 49ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to Arizona.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Rams +7.5

This is a great spot to back the Los Angeles Rams.  The Rams are coming off a Thursday game, getting a mini-bye week.  The Dallas Cowboys played on Monday Night Football, making this short week for them.  It's a huge scheduling spot advantage for the Rams, and I look for them to capitalize Sunday.

After all, teams coming off a Thursday game are 4-0 ATS this season.  I had the two last week in the Bengals and Texans as premium picks, and both cashed with ease.  Not to mention, the Cowboys are 0-8 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a Monday Night game.

Plus, the Rams are one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They are off to a 2-1 start with a 46-9 home win over Indianapolis, and a 41-39 road win at San Francisco.  I can forgive their 20-27 loss to the Redskins considering what the Redskins did to the Raiders last week, outgaining them by 344 yards in a 27-10 victory.

Sean McVay is doing big things with the Rams.  He was the former offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins, and he is starting to help Jared Goff get to the next level.  The Rams are averaging 35.7 points, 374 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play on offense.  Goff is completing 70.4 percent of his pases for 817 yards with five touchdowns and one interception while averaging a whopping 10.1 yards per attempt.  Todd Gurley has already found the end zone six times in three games, and Sammy Watkins is averaging 14.9 yards per catch with two scores.

The Cowboys were fortunate to win their game against the lowly Cardinals last week.  Dak Prescott made some big plays, and the Cardinals' special teams kept giving them short fields.  The Cardinals had a TD called back by a penalty that would have put them up 14-0, then proceeded to miss a short field goal.  It completely changed the complexion of the game.

I think the Dallas offensive line is overrated right now.  They're really not playing well up front.  They are only averaging 89 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry.  Dak Prescott has consistently been under duress.  This is a Cowboys offense that is only averaging 311 yards per game, and a big reason has been the offensive line struggles.

Defensively, the Cowboys have some key injuries in the secondary and were absolutely lit up by Trevor Siemian two weeks ago.  They are giving up 67.8% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  Look for Goff to continue making strides this week as he lights up this Dallas secondary.

The spot already couldn't be worse for the Cowboys with the short week and the Rams coming off extended rest.  But adding to that is the fact that the Cowboys play the Packers next week, and they want revenge from their loss to Green Bay in the NFC Divisional Round.  So this is a look-ahead spot as well.

Jason Garrett is 13-27 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  The Rams are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games after scoring 35 points or more in their previous game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team - averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -1.5

I believe the Minnesota Vikings are neck-and-neck with the Atlanta Falcons as the best team in the NFC.  And getting them under a field goal here at home against the Detroit Lions is an excellent value.  This line suggest Case Keenum will get the start again, as it would be a field goal or more if Sam Bradford was going to play.  But I just don't believe there's that big of a difference between Keenum and Bradford.

The Vikings have one of the best rosters in the NFL.  They are loaded everywhere, so it makes the job much easier on the quarterback.  And Keenum certainly did his part last week in a 34-17 win over Tampa Bay.  He went 25 of 33 passing for 369 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.  The Vikings racked up 494 yards as a team, so clearly they are fine without Bradford.

The Detroit Lions are getting way too much respect from the books due to their 2-1 start.  But they trailed Arizona 17-15 in the 4th quarter in Week 1 before David Johnson got hurt, and the Cardinals have been awful since.  They beat a Giants team that is now 0-3 and had offensive line injury problems at the time they played them.

Sure, the Lions only lost 26-30 to the Falcons last week at home, but that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Falcons outgained them 428 to 324 and lost the turnover battle 3-0, including a pick-6 by the Lions, yet Detroit still couldn't beat them.  And it's going to be tough for them to recover mentally after having a potential game-winning touchdown called back by a review, requiring a 10-second runoff to end the game.

The Vikings started fast last year and they are starting fast this year.  But they were bad in the second half due to injuries throughout the roster.  And they played the Lions twice in November last year during their bad stretch, losing 16-22 at home and 16-13 on the road.  You can bet the Vikings are going to want to exact some revenge here on their division rivals, and they are healthy basically everywhere but the QB position this time around.

The Vikings have gone 19-4 straight up in their last 23 home meetings with the Lions.  Matthew Stafford is 5-47 in his career against teams with a winning record.  The Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Vikings are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Minnesota is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 home games overall.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

25* NFL Overseas GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -2

The New Orleans Saints have played the toughest schedule in the NFL to this point.  They have been underdogs in all three games at Minnesota, versus New England and at Carolina, so they've done a good job of coming away with a 1-2 record.  Their 34-13 domination of Carolina was particularly impressive because the defense stepped up, limiting the Panthers to just 288 total yards and forcing three turnovers.

Now the Saints get a break here against one of the worst teams in the NFL.  The Miami Dolphins should be 0-2, but San Diego's kicker missed on the final play of the game, so they escaped with a 19-17 victory.  And the Chargers clearly aren't very good.  Then last week the Dolphins would have been shut out by arguably the worst team in the league in the Jets if Adam Gase hadn't called a timeout with six seconds left.  They scored a TD on the final play, avoiding the shutout in an embarrassing 6-20 loss as 5.5-point favorites.

The Saints had some key injuries and suspensions that they had to deal with through the first three games.  But one of Drew Brees' favorite targets in Willie Sneed returns from his 3-game suspension, and now tackles Terron Armstead and Zach Strief are likely to return from injury this week.  Getting healthy is going to make the Saints a very dangerous team moving forward.

The Dolphins are in another tough spot here.  They have done way too much traveling here in a short amount of time.  They stayed out in California for a week ahead of their game against the Chargers, then flew back to Miami to practice before flying all the way up to New York.  Now they have to head back down to Miami, and head overseas to London.  You can bet these players have to be sick of traveling by now, and it certainly has set them behind in the preparation department.

It's clear that Jay Cutler should have stuck with his decision to call games from a booth.  The Dolphins' offense is averaging just 12.5 points, 280 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play against opponents that are allowing 23.2 points, 335 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  And their defense hasn't been much better, surrendering 6.4 yards per play against opponents that only average 5.3 yards per play.

The Saints are 8-1 ATS off a division game over the last three seasons.  New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game over the past three seasons.  Miami is 15-34 ATS in its last 49 games off a two-game road trip.  New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 October games.  The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Ole Miss/Alabama SEC West ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +28

Calling out Alabama clearly wasn't a wise move by one of Vanderbilt's players.  The Crimson Tide mopped the floor with the Commodores 59-0 last week.  But now the betting public is back to looking at Alabama like it can't be beat, and quick to forget that they did not look all that good in their first three games of the season.  That's evident by this massive 28-point spread this week.

Florida State gave away the game by committing three turnovers in a 24-7 loss that was much closer than the final score showed.  Alabama only won 41-10 as 43-point home favorites over Fresno State, and 41-23 as 31-point home favorites over Colorado State.  If those two teams can hang around against Alabama, then Ole Miss certainly can.

That's especially the case considering Ole Miss is coming off a bye and will be the more prepared team.  The Rebels have opened 2-1 with their only loss coming 16-27 at Cal.  Well, Cal is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Golden Bears beat UNC on the road, and were tied with USC in the fourth quarter last week, losing 20-30 despite committing six turnovers in that contest.  They probably should have beaten USC.

No team has played Alabama tougher than Ole Miss over the past few seasons.  Ole Miss won outright 23-17 as 5.5-point home dogs in 2014, 43-37 as 9-point road dogs in 2015, and only lost 43-48 as 10-point home dogs last year.  It's not a fluke how close these games have been, either.

Alabama has struggled against up-tempo, spread teams that run a lot of plays.  Deshaun Watson of Clemson, Nick Marshall of Auburn, and both Bo Wallace and Chad Kelly of Ole Miss have run those types of offenses against them.  And Ole Miss has one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Shea Patterson.

Patterson is completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 1,281 yards with 11 touchdowns against only four interceptions while averaging 10.5 yards per attempt this season.  And Ole Miss may have more talent at the receiver position than they have in any of the past years against Alabama.  They already have five players with 11 or more receptions on the season.

Ole Miss is averaging 7.5 yards per play on offense against teams that give up 6.7 yards per play.  They are giving up 5.1 yards per play on defense against teams that average 5.5 yards per play.  Their defense isn't as good as it has been in year's past, but it's still an above-average unit and good enough to hang around with Alabama for four quarters.

When a high-scoring affair is expected, Alabama doesn't fare too well.  The Crimson Tide are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when the total is between 56.5 and 63.  Alabama is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 75 or fewer passing yards last game.  The Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, consistently overvalued laying too many points at home.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Tuscaloosa.  Roll with Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Texas Tech Big 12 No-Brainer on OVER 81

This play is about as square as it gets and completely goes against what I believe in most of the time.  Everyone is going to be on the OVER in this game, which would make me normally want to back the under.  But the fact of the matter is that square wins sometimes, and I simply do not believe the oddsmakers have set this total high enough, even at 81 points!

Nothing has really changed about these two programs this year.  They are both up-tempo, passing teams that put up a lot of points.  Oklahoma State is scoring 48.2 points per game, averaging 580 yards per game and 8.1 yards per play.  Texas Tech is scoring 45.0 yards per game, averaging 587 yards per game and 7.6 yards per play.  And neither team is too concerned with playing defense, especially Texas Tech.

So since nothing has changed with these teams, it makes their recent head-to-head history very important.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings, and the Cowboys and Red Raiders have combined for 80 or more points in all five meetings.  They have averaged 91.6 combined points per game in those five meetings, which is roughly 12 points more than this total.  They went off for 123 combined points in their last meeting at Texas Tech in 2015.

The OVER is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 conference games.  The OVER is 14-5 in Red Raiders last 19 home games.  The OVER is 12-3 in Red Raiders last 15 vs. a team wtih a winning record.  Kliff Kingsbury is 11-1 OVER versus good rushing teams averaging 4.75 or more yards per carry as the coach of Texas Tech.  Kingsburgy is 9-0 vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game as the coach of the Red Raiders.  Texas Tech is 9-1 to the OVER off one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -3.5

When this game was originally scheduled for September 9th, I had UCF picked as -2.5 favorites over Memphis early in the week.  That line jumped to 3.5 and 4 in some places by the day the game was supposed to be played.  I was upset because I had a great number early in the week.  Well, the line has come out basically the same for the rescheduled contest here, and I'm back on the Knights in a big way.

The UCF Knights are a team on the rise.  After winning 10, 12 and 9 games from 2012-'14, they bottomed out at 0-12 in 2015.  Scott Frost then stepped into a good situation with 17 starters back last year and got the Knights to a bowl game.  Now I believe UCF is one of the better teams in the AAC in 2017.

They have 13 starters back this year, including nine on an offense that is loaded.  That offense has shined in a 2-0 start with a 61-17 win over Florida International as 17.5-point favorites, and a 38-10 win at Maryland as 4.5-point dogs.  In those two games alone, the Knights covered the spread by a combined 59 points.  The markets just haven't caught up to how good this team really is.

McKenzie Milton got his feet wet as a freshman last year, and should be primed for a big sophomore season as he takes a step forward here.  He is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 538 yards with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio through two games, while also rushing for 98 yards and averaging 10.9 per carry.  This offense is hitting on all cylinders.

There's no question that UCF has the better defense in this matchup.  They gave up just 24.6 points and 370 yards per game last year.  They have held FIU and Maryland to just 13.5 points, 266 yards per game and 4.4 per play, holding them to 15.0 points, 115 yards per game and 1.8 per play less than their season averages.

Memphis clearly has a good offense with Riley Ferguson at quarterback.  But they are fortunate to be 3-0 right now, and they have played three poor defenses at home in LA Monroe, UCLA and Southern Illinois.  They only won by 8 against LA Monroe as 28-point favorites, beat UCLA by 3 as 3.5-point dogs in a bad spot for the Bruins with the 9:00 AM local start time, and only beat Southern Illinois by 13 as 30-point favorites.  Now the Tigers have to go on the road for the first time.

Memphis' defense gave up 28.8 points and 455 yards per game last year.  This defense isn't any better in 2017.  They are giving up 35.0 points, 484 yards per game and 5.5 per play already this season.  That's very poor when you consider they've faced two poor offensive teams in LA-Monroe and Southern Illinois, giving up a combined 60 points to those two teams.

UCF has owned Memphis through the years, going 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings since 2005 while winning eight of the nine games by 7 points or more.  Plays on a home team (UCF) - after two straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1992.

Memphis is 7-25 ATS in its last 32 after scoring 42 points or more in its previous game.    The Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings.  The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings.  Bet UCF Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State -3.5

Two of the most misleading box scores last week were Michigan State/Notre Dame and Penn State/Iowa.  And now since Michigan State was blown out by Notre Dame, while Iowa nearly upset Penn State, the public perception of these two teams is wrong.  The Spartans are better than their score showed, while the Hawkeyes aren't nearly as good as their score.

Michigan State lost 18-38 to Notre Dame despite outgaining the Fighting Irish 496 to 355, or by 141 total yards.  The difference in that game was that they lost the turnover battle 3-0.  Meanwhile, Iowa only lost 19-21 to Penn State despite getting outgained 273 to 579, or by 306 total yards.  In fact, Saquon Barkley (305 scrimmage yards) outgained Iowa on his own!

It's clear that Michigan State is vastly improved this season and better than most thought they would be after a disastrous 3-9 campaign last year.  The numbers have shown that, too.  They are averaging 473 yards per game and 6.0 per play on offense, and giving up only 254 yards per game and 4.3 per play on defense, outgaining teams by 219 yards per game and 1.7 per play.

Conversely, Iowa is not as good as their 3-1 record.  They are actually getting outgained by 29 yards per game this season.  Their win over Wyoming doesn't look nearly as good now as the Cowboys have struggled.  They nearly lost to North Texas at home, and they were lucky to escape with a 44-41 (OT) win at Iowa State as they erased a 10-point fourth quarter deficit.

The Spartans clearly have the better quarterback here in Brian Lewerke, who is completing 62.9 percent of his passes for 751 yards with six touchdowns against two interceptions, while also rushing for 206 yards and two scores while averaging 7.9 per carry.  The Spartans now have a QB after struggling at the position last year.

It's much easier to recover from a blowout loss for Michigan State.  They know what they did wrong with turnovers, and they know they're better than they played.  I question Iowa's mental state after losing on the final play of the game to Penn State.  They nearly pulled off the miracle despite getting dominated statistically, and after such a big game on the National TV stage, I can't see them getting back up off the mat in time to match Michigan State's intensity here Saturday.

Dantonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in their last game as the coach of the Spartans.  Take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Michigan +14.5

The Eastern Michigan Eagles made their first bowl game since 1987 and posted a 7-6 record last year.  They returned 16 starters from that team and are clearly one of the best teams in the MAC.  They have opened 2-1 this season with their only loss to overtime against Ohio, one of the favorites to win the MAC.

Eastern Michigan went on the road and already beat a Power 5 opponent in Rutgers from the Big Ten.  They won that game 16-13 as 6-point dogs.  And that's a Rutgers team that has played both Washington and Nebraska tough this season, so it was a really good win.  Now the Eagles are catching over two touchdowns against another mediocre Power 5 team in Kentucky.

But this play is really all about the spot.  Kentucky opened 3-0 and felt like this was the year they were going to end the 30-game losing streak to Florida.  Instead, the same usual thing happened as they gave up the lead in the final seconds and lost 27-28.  Off such a deflating loss, I don't think the Wildcats will get back up off the mat in time to put Eastern Michigan away by more than two touchdowns this week.

And even though Kentucky is 3-1, all three wins came by 11 points or less against mediocre opponents in Southern Miss, Eastern Kentucky and South Carolina.  They only beat Eastern Kentucky 27-16 as 33-point home favorites.  It's clear with that result that a much better team like Eastern Michigan is capable of staying within two touchdowns here.

Plays against a home team (KENTUCKY) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 86-42 (67.2%) ATS since 1992.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS vs. teams with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Eastern Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  Kentucky is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games following a loss.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet Eastern Michigan Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State -7.5

You're never going to get the Florida State Seminoles at a better value than you are now after their 0-2 start to the season.  But both losses are forgivable.  They lost to the best team in the country in Alabama and played them tough.  Then they had a three-week layoff and lost to an upstart NC State team that is better than they get credit for.

This is the perfect storm too because Wake Forest couldn't possibly be more overvalued right now after their 4-0 start.  Look who they've beaten though.  Presbyterian, Boston College, Utah State and Appalachian State.  And they were extremely fortunate to beat App State 20-19 as 5.5-point favorites last week.  They were outgained 344 to 494 in that game, or by 150 total yards.

I think this is a 'circle the wagons' game for Florida State.  Jimbo Fisher will wipe the slate clean and let his team know that a new season starts this week.  It was a tough spot with the three-week layoff and freshman QB James Blackmon making his first start.  But Blackmon played well with 278 passing yards and a touchdown without an interception.  And this FSU defense is still loaded with nine returning starters and a boat load of talent.

Speaking of talent, there is a huge talent discrepancy in this game, a much bigger one than this 7.5-point spread would indicate. And that has shown in recent meetings between these teams.  Florida State is 5-0 in the last five meetings, winning by a whopping 31.4 points per game on average.

Jimbo Fisher is 10-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Florida State.  The Seminoles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -9.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets went 9-4 last season.  Their numbers showed that they weren't as good as their record.  But they brought back a whopping 16 starters this season, and now their numbers show that they should be 3-0 and are clearly improved.

Georgia Tech lost its opener 41-42 to Tennessee on a neutral field in overtime despite outgaining the Vols by 286 yards.  Then they beat Jacksonville State five days later 37-10 as 14-point favorites.  They had two weeks off and then beat Pitt 35-17 while outgaining the Panthers by 249 yards.  They are averaging 487 yards per game on offense and giving up only 264 yards on defense this season.

North Carolina was a team I pegged to take a big step back this year.  They lost Mitch Trubisky to the NFL, their top two rushers and three of their top four receivers.  And that has proven to be the case as UNC is off to a 1-3 start this season despite playing three home games.  They lost all three to Cal, Louisville and Duke.  Their only win came on the road against a terrible Old Dominion team.

UNC clearly has a leaky defense this year that is giving up 33.0 points, 469 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They gave up 312 rushing yards to Louisville and 186 to Duke.  Now they're up against Georgia Tech's triple-option attack that is averaging 394 yards per game and 5.8 per carry on the ground.

And the Tar Heels are a tired football team since they haven't had a bye yet, while the Yellow Jackets are the fresher squad after having a bye two weeks ago thanks to the canceling of the UCF game.  And you can bet Georgia Tech has had this game circled.  It wants revenge on a UNC team that it has lost to three straight meetings, including an embarrassing 20-48 road loss last year.  And the Yellow Jackets will be focused knowing that they have a bye next week, so they will be putting all their chips on the table this week.

No team has been hit harder by injuries this season than UNC, which has 18 players listed on the injury report.  Nine are out for the season and nine are questionable as of this write-up.  They're the team that could use a bye, but they won't be betting one until November 4th, so we'll likely continue to fade away moving forward.

The Yellow Jackets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, including 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  This team is still way undervalued in the markets right now, even as 9.5-point favorites here in a game they should win comfortably by double-digits.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* USC/Washington State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 65

This is a huge game between USC and Washington State in Pac-12 action Friday.  The betting public will be expecting offensive fireworks, but I'm anticipating a totally different game.  Points will be much tougher to come by than this 65-point total would indicate.

Washington State has improved defensively in a big way over the last couple years.  They are giving up just 18.5 points, 262 yards per game and 4.4 per play this season.  That even includes the 44 points they gave up to Boise State in Week 2 in triple-overtime, but that game was tied 31-31 at the end of regulation, and there were three non-offensive touchdowns that contributed to that 62-point total.

Sticking with that Boise game, Washington State's offense only scored 17 points in regulation.  They only managed 31 against Montana State, then scored 52 and 45 against two terrible defenses in Oregon State and Nevada, respectively.  It won't come nearly as easy for their offense this week against the best opponent they've faced in USC.

The Trojans are really playing well defensively this season, which is the biggest reason for their 4-0 start.  They are giving up just 24.7 points, 370 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 35.5 points, 424 yards per game and 5.9 per play this season.  They are holding their opponents to 10.8 points, 54 yards and 0.7 per play less than their season averages.

Sam Darnold isn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard for the Trojans, throwing nine touchdowns against seven interceptions.  They only managed 27 points against Texas and 30 against Cal in their last two games, two below average defensive teams.  Darnold has already thrown seven interceptions.  He is struggling behind an inexperienced offensive line that lost three starters in the offseason. Not to mention, leading returning rusher and receiver Ronald Jones (thigh) and Deontay Burnett (shoulder) are both banged up right now.

In the last 20 meetings in this series, USC and Washington State haven't combined for more than 69 points once.  They have averaged only 52 combined points per game in those 20 meetings, which is 13 points less than this posted total of 65.  They have combined for more than 65 points only three times.

USC is 6-0 to the UNDER as a road favorite over the last three seasons.  Washington State is 6-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game over the last three years.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Trojans last 11 conference games.  The UNDER is 14-6-1 in Cougars last 21 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco Giants -129

Nobody wants to lose 100 games in a season.  It's already been an embarrassing year for the Giants, and if they were to get swept in this series, it would be even worse as they would lose 100 games.  I look for them to take care of business against the San Diego Padres at home tonight.

The key handicap here is the massive edge the Giants have on the mound.  Chris Stratton has been impressive, going 3-3 with a 3.43 ERA in nine starts this season.  He has been dominant at home, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in four home starts.

Jordan Lyles has been rocked in every start this year for the Padres.  He is 1-2 with a 7.92 ERA and 1.759 WHIP in four starts, including 1-1 with an 11.00 ERA and 1.889 WHIP in two road starts.  Lyles is also 1-2 with a 6.39 ERA and 1.548 WHIP In six career starts against San Francisco.  He has given up 17 earned runs in 15 innings in his last three starts against the Giants.

Lyles is 0-12 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season in his career.  Take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank tonight.  Take the Giants Friday.

15* Bears/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay -6.5

I think last week's results are keeping this line lower than it should be.  The Bears upset the Steelers 23-17 in overtime, while the Packers needed overtime to beat the Bengals 27-24.  Chicago won outright as 7-point dogs, while Green Bay was fortunate to win the game as 7-point favorites.  If not for those results, the Packers would be closer to 10-point favorites.

I faded the Packers last week due to injury concerns along their offensive line, and the fact that the Bengals were coming off a Thursday game and playing for their season.  But I think this is a good spot to back the home team.  It's tough to travel on a short week for the Bears, and they just aren't as good as the Bengals in my opinion.

We saw what happened to the Bears when they went on the road for their only game this year, losing 7-29 to the Tampa Bay Bucs.  Mike Glennon played a terrible game and the Bears committed four turnovers as a team.  I don't think Glennon can match Rodgers score for scores.

The Bears had control of the game against the Steelers so they were able to play to their strength, which is their running game.  In fact, Mike Glennon went 15-of-22 passing for just 101 yards in the win.  He only compleleted one pass to a wide receiver as 12 of his completions came to running backs.  That vanilla offense isn't going to work against Green Bay, and they're going to be toast once they fall behind.  They don't have the firepower to catch up.

The Packers are expected to get back some key parts this week in WR Randall Cobb, LB Nick Perry and DT Mike Daniels this week.  They still have their offensive line concerns, but fortunately they have a mobile quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who makes his biggest plays when getting outside the pocket.  He relishes this challenge.

Death, taxes and the Packers owning the Bears are the only certainties in life.  Green Bay has won 12 of its last 14 meetings with Chicago.  The Packers have covered in 10 of the last 13 meetings as well.  They won 26-10 at home last year as 7-point favorites, outgaining the Bears by 217 yards in the process.

Mike McCarthy is 47-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of the Packers.  He is 28-15 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Green Bay.  Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games when the total is 42.5 to 49 points.  The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Green Bay is 45-22 ATS in its last 67 vs. NFC North opponents.  Take the Packers Thursday.

20* Texas/Iowa State ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Iowa State +6.5

This is a standalone Thursday night game that almost always favors the home team.  That is certainly the case here for the Iowa State Cyclones, who have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country.  They have put a lot of money into updating Jack Trice Stadium, and it will be a sell-out crowd here Thursday night.

The Cyclones are clearly one of the more improved teams in the country this season.  Matt Campbell has things heading in the right direction in Ames in his second season.  This is a team that really should be 3-0 because they blew a fourth quarter lead against Iowa, eventually losing in overtime.  That's and Iowa team that lost on the final play of the game to No. 4 Penn State last week.

The strength of the Cyclones is an offense that has put up 41.3 points and 460 yards per game thus far.  Jacob Park has been lighting it up, completing 66.7% of his passes for 935 yards and eight touchdowns against only two interceptions.  He is averaging 312 passing yards per game.  He has a a bevy of weapons led by Hakeem Butler (15 receptions, 234 yards, 3 TD) and Allen Lazard (19, 178, 3 TD).  David Montgomery will fight for every yard he gets, rushing for 322 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 5.8 per carry.

What Campbell has done at Iowa State that past coaches haven't been able to do is build the offensive and defensive lines.  The O-Line is vastly improved this season, and D-Line too.  That has been evident defensively as the Cyclones are only giving up 107 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  They gave up 218 rushing yards per game last season to compare.

Texas is a team that will get better as the season goes on as well under Tom Herman, but they are clearly behind the eight ball this early in the season.  They lost to Maryland at home, beat San Jose State, then hung tough at USC.  I had Texas in that game as it was a clear letdown spot for USC after a big win over Stanford the previous week.  And Texas gave up 397 passing yards in that game, so Park will find plenty of success against them through the air.

Texas' offense isn't hitting on all cyclinders by any means, either.  They only rushed for 98 yards on 31 carries against Maryland, and 68 yards on 35 carries against USC.  The Longhorns are only completing 58.2% of their passes thus far as well.  They only completed 21 of 40 passes and committed four turnovers against USC.

The home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Iowa State won 24-0 as 3.5-point home dogs in 2015, and got jobbed by the refs in a 30-31 home loss at 7-point dogs in 2013.  I think these are two pretty evenly-matched teams at this point in the season, so getting 6.5 points with the home team on a standalone Thursday game is an excellent value.

Iowa State has only committed two turnovers in three games.  The Cyclones are 9-2 ATS after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.  Texas is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games versus teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in its last five Thursday games.  Bet Iowa State Thursday.

15* Astros/Red Sox AL Total DOMINATOR on OVER 9

Both the Astros and Red Sox are hitting the cover off the ball heading into the postseason, and it's likely these two will be matched up for the division series.  The Astros have scored a combined 37 runs in their last three games, and at least 5 runs in five straight.  The Red Sox scored 10 yesterday and have scored at least four runs in seven straight.

Brad Peacock has put up some decent numbers this season as he's 9-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  But he has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-2 with a 12.39 ERA and 2.879 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Eduardo Rodriquez is 6-6 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  He has pitched well of late, but he's going to have his hands full against this Houston lineup that has no weaknesses.  The Astros are scoring 6.2 runs per game on the road this year.

The OVER is 8-2 in Astros last 10 games overall, and 4-0 in their last four road games.  The OVER is 27-10-1 in Astros last 38 vs. AL East opponents.  The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in this series, including 5-0 in the last five meetings in Boston.  Roll with the OVER 9 in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-130)

The Houston Astros have gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall to pull within one game of the Cleveland Indians for home-field advantage in the American League.  The Texas Rangers have lost five straight and are just looking forward to going on vacation.  They've been outscored 25-5 by the Astros in the first two games of this series.

Now one of the hottest starters in baseball gets the ball for the Astros.  Justin Verlander is 4-0 with a 0.64 ERA in 28 innings since being traded from the Detroit Tigers.  He is 10-6 with a 3.02 ERA in 19 career starts against Texas as well.

Nick Martinez is having a rough season for the Rangers, going 3-7 with a 5.42 ERA in 17 starts this year.  Martinez is 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA in three starts against the Astros in 2017, giving up 10 earned runs and a whopping 6 homers in 16 1/3 innings.

Texas is 1-12 in its last 13 home games off three consecutive losses by five runs or more to division opponents.  The Rangers are losing by 3.8 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Wednesday.

25* MLB TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Braves/Mets OVER 8.5

The books have set the bar too low for this game tonight between the Braves and Mets.  These have been two of the more underrated lineups in baseball.  The Braves score 4.6 runs per game overall, including 4.9 per game on the road.  The Mets score 4.6 runs per game overall as well.

Both teams have suspect rotations and terrible bullpens as well.  The Braves own a 4.59 bullpen ERA while the Mets have a 4.80 ERA.  The Mets have been the best OVER team in baseball at 89-57 on the season.  The Braves are 44-29 to the OVER in road games this year.

Rafael Montero is 5-8 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.639 WHIP in 17 starts this season, 3-6 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.757 WHIP in 10 home starts, and 1-2 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.975 WHIP In his last three.  R.A. Dickey is 10-10 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in 30 starts, 3-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.472 WHIP in 12 road starts, and 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in his last three.

The Mets are 13-3 OVER after scoring 3 runs or less in two straight games this season.  The OVER is 5-1 in Dickey's last six starts.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in New York.  The OVER is 5-0 in Joe West's last five games behind home plate in Atlanta games, and 6-1 in his last seven in New York games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Cowboys/Cardinals MNF Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 47

There are a lot of factors that point to a low-scoring game Monday night between the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals.  I think this 47-point total is too high here, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER.

The Cardinals have not been sharp on offense since losing David Johnson.  They only managed 13 points in regulation against a terrible Colts' defense last week.  Carson Palmer is a shell of his former self and can't carry a team like he used to.  Plus three of his top targers in WR JJ Nelson, WR John Brown and TE Jermaine Gresham are all banged up and questionable to play Monday.

The Cowboys did not look good defensively against the Broncos last week.  However, they should have much more success on that side of the ball against this limited Arizona offense.  We saw the Cowboys hold the Giants to just 3 points in Week 1, so I don't think they are broken on that side of the ball just yet.  And they are expected to get starting CB Orlando Scandrick back this week after he missed last week.

I expect the Cowboys to get back to running the football on offense.  They got away from their game plan last week and Dak Prescott had to throw a whopping 50 passes against the Broncos last week because they were trailing the whole game.  They only had 14 rush attempts.  They'll try to establish Zeke Elliott early and often, and that will help to chew up clock, extend drives and keep their vulnerable defense off the field.

Arizona does still have one of the elite defenses in the NFL.  The Cardinals finished No. 2 in the league in total defense last season.  They are great at all three levels with tremendous pass rushers, speedy linebackers and arguably the best secondary in the game.  They held the Colts to just 266 total yards last week and 13 points.  They gave up 35 points to the Lions in Week 1, but that was mostly due to the offense committing four turnovers, one of which was returned for a TD.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Arizona is 6-0 UNDER in home games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three years.  The UNDER is 11-3 in Cowboys last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Cardinals last 12 home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Cardinals last six Monday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-105)

The Boston Red Sox have now won six straight and are now 14-3 in their last 17 games overall.  They are the hottest team in baseball outside the Cleveland Indians.  And their magic number is three for clinching the AL East now, meaning that any combination of three Boston wins or New York losses would get them the division.  They are so close they can taste it.

Drew Pomeranz is far and away the superior starter here.  He is 16-5 with a 3.15 ERA in 30 starts this season, 9-2 with a 3.11 ERA in 15 home starts, and 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts.  Pomeranz is also 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA in five career starts against Toronto.

Brett Anderson is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 3-4 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.809 WHIP in 11 starts this season. He was just rocked for 8 earned runs in 1 1/3 innings in his last start on September 30th in a 5-15 loss to the Royals.  Anderson gave up 6 earned runs in 4 innings in his last start at Boston as well.

The Red Sox are 17-4 in Pomeranz's 21 night starts this season.  They are winning by 2.1 runs per game on average.  Boston is 9-1 in Pomerenz's 10 starts in the second half of the season vs. teams who average 1.25 or more HR's/game, winning by 2.6 runs per game.  Boston is 13-3 in Pomeranz's last 16 home starts.  Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Monday.

15* Bengals/Packers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +9

The Cincinnati Bengals are just the type of 'buy low' team that I like to back.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them after their 0-2 start.  They haven't score a touchdown yet, one of only two teams (49ers) to accomplish that feat through two weeks.  And the 49ers covered against the Rams on Thursday and scored 39 points.

The Bengals are in a good spot to correct their mistakes.  They are coming off a mini-bye week after playing last Thursday, which was the perfect time to fire their offensive coordinator.  It gives them extra time to get used to Bill Lazor's offense as he steps into the position after being the QB coach.  And this was a banged up team that has had extra time to get healthy as well.  I always like backing teams coming off a Thursday game, and we saw both the Pats and Chiefs cover in this situation last week.

The Bengals just have too much talent on offense to be held in check for much longer.   They have AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, Tyler Boyd and a three-headed monster at RB led by talented rookie Joe Mixon, who should see an increased role with Lazor calling the shots.  Playing two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Ravens and Texans has certainly been a big reason for their offensive struggles.  I strongly believe the Bengals will live up to their potential on this side of the ball this week.

The Packers have been one of the biggest public teams for years.  Bettors are just going to back them blindly because they are at home.  But remember, this is a Packers team that started 4-6 last year and needed a big run just to make the playoffs.  Aaron Rodgers is making a habit of working magic late in seasons, but it's also been a trend that this team gets off to slow starts and is a money burner early in the year.

That's going to be the case again in 2017 simply because the Packers have huge injury concerns right now that they can't just overcome and win games by margins.  Their best defensive player in DT Mike Daniels left the Atlanta game last week and is questionable.  LB Nick Perry and LB Ahmad Brooks are both questionable.  And that's just on defense.

The problems are much bigger on offense.  The Packers played without their two starting tackles along the offensive line last week and both are questionable to return this week.  Both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb were knocked out of the game last week due to injury and are questionable to play.  This is simply a mash unit right now that isn't capable of covering a 9-point spread against a hungry Bengals team coming off a mini-bye week.

Plays against home favorites (GREEN BAY) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 33-5 (86.8%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Bengals Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -105

The Cardinals have won four of their last five games and are only 1.5 games back in the wild card.  Every game is a must-win for this team moving forward, and I trust them in this spot.  The Pirates are just 3-13 in their last 16 games overall and haven't offered much resistance to contenders.

We'll fade Jameson Taillon here.  He is 7-7 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in 23 starts, including 3-5 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in 14 home starts.  Taillon is also 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in four career starts against St. Louis.

The Cardinals are 16-5 in their last 21 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pirates are 8-22 in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 8-2 in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Pittsburgh is 0-4 in Taillon's last four starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints +6

The New Orleans Saints are 0-2 right now because of the difficult schedule they have faced.  They were 3-point road dogs at Minnesota and lost 19-29, and then they were 6.5-point home dogs against a hungry Patriots team and lost 36-20.  Sure, they could have been more competitive, but they are 0-2 just like they're supposed to be.  And they're being undervalued now because of it.

Carolina would be 0-2 against the same schedule.  Instead, the Panthers are 2-0 thanks to playing the 49ers and Bills.  They were 4.5-point favorites at San Francisco and 6.5-point home favorites over the Bills.  But since they're 2-0 they are being overvalued now.  This is clearly a great 'buy low, sell high' situation as we'll buy low on the Saints and sell high on the Panthers.

The Saints will be extremely motivated to avoid an 0-3 start, while the Panthers could fall flat after their 2-0 start.  And the Panthers have all kinds of issues right now that leaves me wondering how they can possibly be 6-point favorites here.  Their offense has been terrible, and they have some serious injury concerns right now.

Cam Newton was injured against the Bills and didn't look right.  He will play this week, but he won't be 100%.  They lost his favorite weapon in TE Greg Olsen to a broken foot, and now he's out for the next 6-8 weeks.  Plus, T Matt Kalil (neck) and WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee) are both questionable this week with injuries.

This was a Carolina offense that was struggling even before all these injuries.  They are scoring just 16.0 points per game, averaging 271 yards per game, and just 4.4 yards per play.  Now I don't know what they are going to be able to do with Olsen out and a hobbled Newton and Benjamin.  Their only healthy weapon is Christian McCaffrey, and they're limiting his touches this season to try and keep him healthy and fresh.

Taking a look at this head-to-head series, this is a rivalry that always goes down to the wire.  In fact, all four meetings over the last three seasons have been decided by 5 points or less, including three by exactly a field goal.  And that's where I think this line should be, Carolina -3, not Carolina -6.  And three points of value in the NFL is huge.

The Saints have been moving the ball fine, but they've had to settle for too many field goals.  The Panthers have faced two awful passing teams in Buffalo and San Francisco, making their defense look better than it is.  The Panthers have a good front seven, but their secondary is their weakness as it has been since they lost Josh Norman.  Drew Brees is just the guy to exploit that weakness this week.  New Orleans has averaged 30.3 points per game in its last four meetings with Carolina.

Plays against home favorites (CAROLINA) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +13.5

Yes, I'm fading the Patriots again this week.  I had the Chiefs in Week 1 against them which was an easy winner. But I lost with the Saints last week.  However, there were a few takeaways from that Saints game that has me quick to fade the Patriots again.

New England jumped out to a 30-13 halftime lead. But they only scored 6 points in the 2nd half.  And a lot of that had to do with the injuries suffered on offense throughout the game  The Patriots came into the game without both Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.

Then Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan and Philip Dorsett all got hurt.  Hogan is probable to play this week, while Gronk and Dorsett are both questionable.  I know the Patriots find ways to score no matter what, but they are seriously limited right now on offense.  So asking them to beat the Texans by two touchdowns here is asking too much.

I like what I saw from the Texans last week.  They led the NFL in total defense last year and have a dominant unit again.  They held the Bengals to just 3 field goals.

Offensively, the switch to Deshaun Watson at QB is huge for this team I think.  His athletic ability helps mask some of the issues on the offensive line.  That was evident with his 49-yard TD run that basically won the game for the Texans.  He didn't turn the ball over, and they rushed for 168 yards as a team.  I'd like to see Watson use his legs more because he's a serious weapon.

The Texans should have WR Bruce Ellington and TE Ryan Griffin back this week from concussions.  CB Jonathan Joseph, WR Will Fuller and TE Stephen Andersen all returned to practice this week after missing last week.  So Watson will have more weapons to work with and should find plenty of success against this soft Patriots defense.

The Patriots allowed 31 PPG in the preseason.  Now they are giving up 31 PPG and 483 YPG in the regular season through two games.  Their most important defensive player, LB Dont'a Hightower, missed last week with an injury and is questionable to return this week.

It's a huge advantage for the Texans getting that 3 extra days of rest after playing last Thursday.  I always like backing teams coming off a Thursday night game and getting that mini-bye, which has helped the Texans get heatlhy.  Both the Patriots and Chiefs covered last week in this same situation.  Houston is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games.  Take the Texans Sunday.

15* Notre Dame/Michigan State FOX Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +4

I just believe that that the Michigan State Spartans were massively underrated heading into 2017 after their shocking 3-9 disaster last season.  Mark Dantonio does his best work with his back against the wall, and he'll have the Spartans exceeding expectations now this year.

The Spartans got off to a great start in Week 1 with a 35-10 beat down of Bowling Green as 17-point favorites.  They even lost the turnover battle three to one and still won by 25, outgaining the Falcons 465 to 212 in the process.  It was a dominant effort and one that has me excited about this team moving forward.

I backed the Spartans again in their Week 2 victory over Western Michigan, 28-14 as 7-point home favorites.  They absolutely dominated that game more than the final score showed.  They outgained the Broncos 457 to 195 for the game, or by 262 total yards.  And that's a Western Michigan team that took USC down to the wire on the road in Week 1.

It looks like the Spartans are back to playing the elite defense we have become accustomed to rather than the soft unit we saw last year.  The Spartans are only giving up 12.0 points per game and 203 yards per game as well as 3.4 yards per play.  And the Spartans are back to running the ball with authority, averaging 255 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry.

Notre Dame is also a team I was high on coming into the season, but I think they are overvalued here as road favorites. The Fighting Irish have thumped two poor teams in Temple and Boston College, and they lost their only true test at home against Georgia 20-21 as 5.5-point favorites.  I think Michigan State is in a similar class to Georgia.

Michigan State was not good last year, yet they still went on the road and beat Notre Dame 36-28 as 7.5-point underdogs.  They racked up 501 total yards on that Notre Dame defense.  Now the Spartans have had two full weeks to prepare for this game after having last week off, which is a huge advantage coming in.

Notre Dame is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.  Michigan State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 225 or fewer yards/game in its previous two games.  The Fighting Irish are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* Penn State/Iowa ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Iowa +13

For starters, Kinnick Stadium is an extremely tough place to play, especially on a Saturday night.  We saw then-No. 2 Michigan watch its playoff hopes dwindle with a 13-14 loss in Iowa City last year as 21-point favorites.  In fact, Iowa is a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home games vs. Top 5 teams dating back to 2009.

Many think this is going to be an easy game for No. 4 Penn State after crushing Iowa 41-14 in Happy Valley last year.  But that just has the revenge angle working in our favor here as these Hawkeye players have not forgotten.  Look for them to bring their "A" effort here Saturday night on ABC.

Penn State is way overvalued right now after going 13-0 ATS in their last 13 games overall dating back to last season.  It's time to 'sell high' on them now that you're having to pay a premium to back them.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season, but they've played three cupcakes at home in Akron, Pitt and Georgia State.

Akron lost 41-14 at home to Iowa State, which Iowa beat on the road two weeks ago.  Penn State was actually outgained by Pitt 30 yards in their 33-14 victory, a game that was clearly much closer than the final score would indicate.  And that's a Pitt team that lost 21-59 at home to Oklahoma State last week, and needed overtime to beat Youngstown State at home in Week 1.

I think most are down on Iowa after they struggled with North Texas last week.  But that was clearly a flat spot after beating rival Iowa State in overtime the week before, and having Penn State on deck the next week.  And the Hawkeyes still won 31-14 and kneeled on the 2-yard line in the closing seconds, otherwise they would have covered the 19.5-point spread.  They also had a TD called back by a taunting penalty and didn't wind up scoring on that possession.

Iowa usually goes under the radar every year because they play a boring brand of football.  They win with defense and a running game.  But I've been impressed with QB Nathan Stanley through three games.  He threw five touchdown passes against Iowa State and it could have been more had he not overthrown a couple guys deep.  This Iowa offense is more potent than it has been in the past.  And the Hawkeyes will have the advantage on the offensive and defensive lines in this game, which always gives them a chance.

Kirk Ferentz is 24-4 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry as the coach of Iowa.  Penn State is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 6 points or less.  Iowa is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 vs. good offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -114

The St. Louis Cardinals have now won four straight to get within 1.5 games of the Colorado Rockies for the second wild card spot.  I have backed them the past two days, and I like the short price we are getting with them here again today against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

This is a Pirates team that looks to have quit, going 2-13 in their last 15 games overall.  Gerrit Cole is just having an average season fro the Pirates, going 11-11 with a 4.12 ERA in 31 starts.  But Cole has struggled of late, giving up 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings while losing each of his last two starts to the Brewers and Reds.

The Cardinals clearly have the better starter on the mound tonight in Lance Lynn.  The right-hander has become the ace of this staff, going 11-7 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  In his last four starts against Pittsburgh, Lynn has pitched 6 1/3, 7 and 5 shutout innings three times.  He did get lit up once, but I'll take my chances that was just an aberration.

The Cardinals are 16-5 in their last 21 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pirates are 7-22 in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pirates are 0-4 in Cole's last four starts.  The Pirates are 0-4 in Cole's last four home starts.  The Cardinals are 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Cardinals Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on SMU -5.5

The SMU Mustangs are a team I was very high on coming into the season.  They are coming off a 5-7 season and were much more competitive in 2016.  They brought back 14 starters in 2017 and entered Year 3 under Chad Morris, the former Clemson offensive coordinator who also coached 16 seasons of high school football in Texas.  Morris has this program headed in the right direction.

SMU has certainly looked improved thus far, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They won 58-14 over Stephen F. Austin as 30-point favorites, 54-32 as 11.5-point favorites over North Texas, and lost 36-56 at TCU as 22-point dogs, giving the Horned Frogs from the Big 12 all they could handle.  This was a 7-point game entering the fourth quarter last week.

Morris knows how to coach up an offense, and he has the Mustangs galloping full speed ahead this season.  They are averaging 49.3 points, 474 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play thus far against teams that give up 35.1 points, 376 yards per game and 5.4 per play.  Their defense has at least been average this season.

Arkansas State has been the king of the Sun Belt over the last few seasons.  But the Red Wolves haven't done that well in non-conference action over the same time frame.  And I think they're getting too much respect for playing Nebraska close in a 36-43 loss in Week 1.  That's the same Nebraska team that was upset at home by Northern Illinois last week.

This is the least-experienced team that the Red Wolves have had since 2014.  That year they returned 10 starters and went just 7-6, which was their worst record since 2010.  Well, they only returned 10 starters this year.  They lost six of their top nine tacklers on defense and aren't very good on that side of the ball, so look for SMU to do whatever it wants offensively.

Plays on a home team (SMU) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in two consecutive games, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1992.  The Mustangs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The Mustangs are 6-0 ATS in their last six after allowing 40 points or more in their previous game.  Take SMU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami -13.5

The Miami Hurricanes are chomping at the bit right now to hit the field.  They haven't played a game since September 2nd due to Hurricane Irma.  It's safe to say they'll be hungry, rested and ready to go when the hit the field Saturday.

The same cannot be said for Toledo, which has played each of the first three weeks and is coming off a barn-burner against Tulsa.  The Rockets won that game 54-51 at home in a back-and-forth affair, and they won't have a whole lot left in the tank to face the Hurricanes here.  I don't think they'll be able to match Miami's energy in this one.

I can't say that Toledo has been all that impressive.  The wins have come against Elon as a 44.5-point favorite, Nevada as an 11-point favorite and Tulsa as a 7-point favorite.  They only beat Nevada by 13, and that's a Nevada team that just lost at home to Idaho State 28-30 as a 32.5-point favorite.  Tulsa lost at Oklahoma State 24-59 and is basically in rebuilding mode.

I really believe Miami is a national title contender this year.  The Hurricanes return 15 starters from a team that went 9-4 last year, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games, including a 31-14 victory over WVU in the bowl game.  They are loaded at running back and receiver, and they have eight starters back from a defense that gave up only 18.5 points per game last year.  This is one of the best defenses in the country.

Miami has feasted on Group of 5 teams in non-conference action in recent years.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in such games over the past three seasons.  They beat FAU 38-10 as 25-point home favorites last year, then crushed a good Appalachian State team 45-10 as only 3-point road favorites.  I think they make easy work of Toledo by two touchdowns or more here at home Saturday.

Mark Richt is 6-0 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more as the coach of Miami.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less over the last three years.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Roll with Miami Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +28

This is an awful spot for the Tennessee Volunteers.  It's a clear sandwich spot.  They are coming off a deflating 26-20 loss at Florida in which the Gators scored on a hail mary on the final play of the game thanks to a huge breakdown in covered.  Now the Vols have an even bigger game on deck at home against Georgia next week that will likely decide whether or not they are contenders in the SEC East.  The Vols could care less about beating UMass by a margin here.

They'll be more concerned about getting healthy.  Tennessee has already lost four starters to season-ending injury.  They have six more guys who are questionable for Saturday's game.  Don't be surprise to see the Vols take a cautious approach here to try and make sure that they have all hands on deck against Georgia next week.

That's a bad Florida team that Tennessee just lost to, one that was destroyed by Michigan in their opener and one that is missing 10-plus players due to injuries and suspensions.  And Tennessee was extremely fortunate to beat Georgia Tech 42-41 in overtime in their opener.  They were actually outgained by 286 yards by the Yellow Jackets.  I just don't think this Tennessee team is very good.

UMass is the perfect 'buy low' candidate that I like to back this week.  They have started 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS.  But a closer look shows that all four of their losses have come by 10 points or less, so they've been competitive in every game.  They have only been outgained by 3 yards per game on the season despite their 0-4 record.  I backed them last week as 14.5-point dogs at Temple in a 21-29 loss.  They should have won that game outright as they outgained Temple by 71 yards.

Head coach Mark Whipple knows how to coach up an offense, and the Minutemen will score plenty of points to stay within the number against this suspect Tennessee defense.  QB Andrew Ford has been impressive, completing 64.3% of his passes with a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  He has three great weapons outside who are all averaging at least 14 yards per receptions and who have at least 17 receptions each on the season in Adam Breneman, Andy Isabella and Sadiq Palmer.

I think the fact that UMass is playing an SEC opponent will help them get back up off the mat from this 0-4 start and put together a competitive performance here Saturday.  Tennessee doesn't give these non-conference opponents much respect, and that showed last year.  They needed overtime to beat Appalachian State as 20-point favorites.  They only beat Ohio by 9 as 27-point favorites as well.  This that Tennessee team was much better than this 2017 version.

Whipple is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 200 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of UMass.  The Minutemen are actually winning 35.7 to 29.2 on average in this spot.  The Minutemen are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  The Vols are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS win.  Take UMass Saturday.

15* Utah/Arizona Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona +3.5

The Arizona Wildcats have the makings of one of the most improved teams in the country from what I've seen thus far.  They have opened 2-1 with a pair of blowout victories and a tough 16-19 loss to Houston.   Holding that Houston offense to only 19 points is no small feat as this defense is clearly way improved.

The Wildcats hung 62 points on Northern Arizona and 63 on UTEP in their two blowout victories.  Brandon Dawkins has a focus this season as a junior that he hasn't had in the past.  He's on a mission to prove his naysayers wrong.  The Arizona quarterback is in charge of a Wildcats offense that is averaging 328 rushing yards per game and 6.5 per carry this season.  They are also completing 66.2% of their passes.

Utah has played three cake opponents.  The Utes only won 37-16 over North Dakota in their opener, then won a hard-fought 19-13 contest at BYU.  That's the same BYU team that lost 27-0 to LSU and 40-6 to Wisconsin, while also barely beating Portland State.  Then the Utes won 54-16 over San Jose State last week, which lost 56-0 to Texas.  The Spartans committed five turnovers to aid the Utes' cause.

Last year in their Pac-12 home opener, the Wildcats took Washington to overtime as 13-point home dogs.  That's a Washington team that ended up winning the Pac-12 and making the four-team playoff.  I think Rich Rodriquez and company want to make a statement here Friday night to let everyone know they won't be pushovers in the Pac-12 this season.

I like the fact that Arizona has had a full week to prepare after playing last Friday, while Utah played on Saturday and will be on short rest.  I also like that Arizona is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Utah in the past five years under Rodriquez.  The Wildcats have outgained the Utes in all five meetings while racking up at least 469 yards in all five games.  That's impressive when you consider Utah is considered one of the better defensive teams in the country year in and year out.  Rodriquez simply has their number.

"They run the zone read as well as anyone in the country," Kyle Whittingham said of the Wildcats. "They have a quarterback that is an exceptional runner. That is exactly what they look for in their quarterback, the ability to be a dual threat. We have struggled with them.  The games we lost, we did not do a good job defending the run. So, that is going to be job No. 1 this week like it is every week."

Whittingham is 11-27 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Friday games, while the Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last even meetings.  Bet Arizona Friday.

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -145

The St. Louis Cardinals are coming off a three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds that has them just 1.5 games back in the second wild card spot.  Both the Rockies and Brewers are falling apart, while the veteran Cardinals who are used to big-game pressure are surging right now.

Now the Cardinals get to face a Pirates team that looks to have quit, going 2-12 in their last 14 games overall.  And they get to face a cold starting pitcher in Ivan Nova, who is 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA in his last three starts.  Nova is also 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his last two starts against the Cardinals, giving up 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 2/3 innings.

Michael Wacha is 12-8 with a 4.01 ERA in 28 starts this season for the Cardinals, including 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA in his last three.  Wacha is 6-3 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 14 career starts against Pittsburgh.  He pitched 8 shutout innings in a 7-0 victory in his last start against them on September 10th earlier this month.

The Cardinals are 14-3 in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 20-7 in Wacha's last 27 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pirates are 0-4 in Nova's last four starts.  Pittsburgh is 7-21 in its last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals Friday.

15* Rams/49ers NFL Thursday No-Brainer on San Francisco +3

This line indicates that the Los Angeles Rams would be favored by roughly 6 points over the San Francisco 49ers on a neutral field.  And I simply think that's too much.  This line should be either a PK or the 49ers as a small favorite because there isn't that much difference between these two teams.

The Rams are going to be favorites for the third straight week, which hasn't happened in a long time for them.  Sure, they are going to be improved this year, but they haven't played anyone yet.  They crushed the Colts, who may be the worst team in in the NFL right now.  And they lost to a Redskins team that I'm down on, both at home.  Now the Rams have to go on the road for the first time.

I was on the 49ers last week against the Seahawks, and they nearly pulled off the road upset as 14-point dogs in a 12-9 loss.  I think this team is way undervalued due to their 0-2 start.  But their other loss came to the Panthers.  The Rams would be 0-2 if they played those two teams as well.

The 49ers have a defense they can lean on.  They are giving up just 17.5 points and 299 yards per game this season.  They are also only allowing 4.3 yards per play.  The Rams gave up 385 total yards to the Redskins last week, including a ridiculous 229 rushing.  They are allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season.

That plays right into the 49ers' hands because their strength is running the football.  Carlos Hyde is fourth in the league in rushing with 169 yards.  What is most impressive is the fact that he is averaging 7.0 yards per carry.  He should find plenty of success on the ground against the Rams here, and Brian Hoyer should be much sharper in his third start of the season, especially if his receivers stop dropping the ball.

The 49ers have owned the Rams in recent years, going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.  They swept the season series last year, winning 28-0 at home.  Plays on any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - after scoring 9 points or less in two straight games are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  It's time to 'buy low' on San Francisco tonight.  Take the 49ers Thursday.

20* Temple/USF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida -18.5

The South Florida Bulls are one of the top Group of 5 teams along side the San Diego State Aztecs.  One of these teams will likely be playing in a big bowl game at the end of the season.  I think that team is more likely to be the Bulls.

But because South Florida got off to a slow start with lackluster wins over San Jose State and Stony Brook, I think that has them undervalued now.  That showed last week as the Bulls crushed Illinois 47-23 as 16.5-point favorites.  That game was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bulls even overcame 14 first half penalties alone to put up 680 yards of total offense.

This is a Temple team that I'm way down on this year.  Temple is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons that nobody thought was possible outside of the folks in Philadelphia.  Matt Rhule did a tremendous job turning this program around, and he is looking to do the same at Baylor after signing a contract with them in the offseason.

The loss of Rhule is huge, but the Owls also lose a ton of personnel.  They only have 10 starters back this season after having 19 and 12 back the past two years.  They lose 4-year starting QB Phillip Walker, leading rusher Jahad Thomas, and five of their top six tacklers on defense.

This is a Temple team that went an FBS-best 12-2 against the spread in their 14 games last year.  They became a big public team down the stretch, and that memory is fresh in the minds of the public.  I think the Owls came into the season getting too much love and that is showing early as they are 0-3 ATS.

I backed Notre Dame in Week 1 in a 49-16 throttling of Temple as 20-point favorites.  The Irish outgained the Owls by 276 yards in that contest.  Even more concerning may have been last week's narrow 16-13 win over FCS foe Villanova.  The Owls were outgained by 49 yards by Villanova and probably should have lost.

I then backed UMass +14.5 last week at Temple in a game the Minutmen should have won outright.  They outgained Temple by 71 yards in that contest.  And that's a UMass team that is 0-4 now.  So Temple struggled to put them away, and they have no shot of hanging with a team the class of USF.  This should be Notre Dame 2.0 as Temple gets steamrolled.

Temple won the AAC last year thanks in large part to its 46-30 win over South Florida.  The Bulls certainly have not forgotten, and they beat Temple 44-23 at home in 2015 the last time here.  And you know South Florida is going to bring the offense.  The Bulls have scored 30 or more points in an FBS-best 19 straight games now.

Temple gave up 422 rushing yards to Notre Dame in its opener.  Then it allowed 382 passing to Villanova and 377 passing to UMass.  This clearly isn't the same stout Temple defense that we've seen over the last few years.  That's probably due to losing five of their top six tacklers on that side of the ball.  Their front seven is very weak right now.

The Bulls are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.  South Florida is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Bet South Florida Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+100)

The St. Louis Cardinals won yesterday and gained a game on both the Rockies and Brewers in the wild card, the two teams they are chasing.  This team is feeling good about themselves right now at just 2.5 games back with 11 games to go.  They are in must-win mode the rest of the way.

The Cardinals have scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series against the Reds.  They should stay red hot at the plate against Cincinnati's Homer Bailey, who is 5-8 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-5 with a 7.78 ERA and 1.676 WHIP in eight home starts.  Bailey is 6-12 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.619 WHIP in 22 career starts against St. Louis.  He gave up 10 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of a 4-13 loss to the Cardinals in his last start against them on August 6th.

Carlos Martinez has been as consistent as they come this season.  He is 11-11 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 30 starts this year.  Martinez is also 3-2 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in seven career starts against the Reds.

St. Louis is 14-2 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 2-7 in Bailey's last nine home starts.  The Reds are 13-40 in their last 53 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -119

The Chicago Cubs are only 3.5 games up on the Brewers in the NL Central, so they have a lot to play for right now.  That has shown as they've gone 7-0 in their last seven games overall.  The Tampa Bay Rays have nothing to play for but pride after going 3-8 in their last 11 games overall to fall to 73-78 on the season.

We're getting Jon Lester and the Cubs at a nice value here as small road favorites over the Rays.  Lester is 3-0 with a 3.71 ERA in his last three starts and pitching well right now.  The Rays are just 17-28 (-10.6 units) against left-handed starters this season, hitting .228 and scoring only 4.0 runs per game off them.

Blake Snell, who is 3-6 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.382 WHIP in 21 starts this season, should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  The Cubs are 21-12 (+4.8 units) against left-handed starters this season, hitting .277 and scoring 5.7 runs per game off them.

The Cubs are 11-1 in their last 12 interleague games.  Chicago is 31-12 in its last 43 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cubs are 8-0 in their last eight vs. AL East opponents.  Tampa Bay is 1-7 in its last eight vs. a left-handed starter.  The Cubs are 25-5 in Lester's last 30 starts vs. a team with a losing record.   Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mets/Marlins OVER 9.5

The New York Mets and Miami Marlins should easily top this 9.5-run total today.  The Mets have been the best OVER team in baseball, going 86-53 to the OVER on the season, including 46-26 in road games.  The Marlins are 77-62 to the OVER on the year as well.

Seth Lugo is 6-5 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 4-4 with a 6.79 ERA and 1.722 WHIP in 10 road starts.  Lugo has gone 1-2 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in his last three starts as well, averaging just 4.7 innings per start.

Odrisamer Despaigne hasn't been much better, going 0-3 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in five starts this year.  He is 0-2 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in his last three starts, averaging just 4.9 innings per start.  It looks like we'll get into the bullpens early in this one.

The The Mets are 50-24 OVER vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season.  The OVER is 12-4 in Mets last 16 road games.  The OVER is 8-1-3 in Marlins last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 10-3-1 in Lugo's last 14 starts, including 7-1-1 in his last nine road starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.