15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds +121

The Cincinnati Reds clinch the final wild card spot in the National League with a win today.  The Milwaukee Brewers have already secured the No. 1 seed throughout the postseason, meaning the World Series would go through Milwaukee.  They have nothing to play for and are playing like it now.

Brady Singer is 6-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his last 10 starts.  Singer is 6-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 12 day game starts.  It's hard to envision the Milwaukee Brewers letting Freddy Peralta go very deep in this one.  This is more of just a tune up for him.  Bet the Reds Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians -135

The Cleveland Guardians are 18-4 in their last 22 games overall and are now tied with the Detroit Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central and own the tiebreaker.  They will be the AL Central champs with home-field advantage in the wild card round with a win.

The Rangers were right in the thick of the AL West race before getting swept by the Houston Astros September 15-17.  They have been lifeless since, going 2-10 in their last 12 games overall and have been eliminated from playoff contention.  They don't care nearly as much about this game as the Guardians and just want their season to be over.

Logan Allen has come up clutch in his last two starts firing 8 shutout innings in a 8-0 win over the Twins in his last start and allowing due one earned run in 5 innings against the Royals the start prior.  He will be facing a makeshift Texas lineup due to injuries and simply sitting guys because they don't care about these last few games.

I'll gladly fade Patrick Corbin, who is 4-5 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 15 road starts this season.  Corbin is 1-3 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in eight day game starts.  He is 1-4 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in his last 10 starts as well.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 16 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +3

The Atlanta Falcons +3 was the first play I released to clients this week.  I did so knowing the injury situation for the Washington Commanders was going to be pretty ugly this week, and it wasn't adjusted for early in the week.  It has now been adjusted, but the Falcons should be at least 3-point home favorites given all the factors.

The Commanders will be without starting QB Jayden Daniels, starting WR Terry McCLaurin and starting WR Noah Brown on offense.  They also could be without rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who has been huge for them thus far.  They were already without 3rd-down RB Austin Ekeler to a season-ending injury.

Washington is coming off a satisfying 41-24 home win over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Marcus Mariota was great in his first start in place of Daniels.  But now the Falcons have tape on him, and he will be without two of his top receivers and probably his RB.  Mariota will look much more like a backup QB in his first start on the road this week.

We will 'sell high' on the Commanders off that blowout win, and 'buy low' on the Falcons off a 30-0 blowout loss at Carolina.  That was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  The Falcons outgained the Panthers 332 to 224 for the game, or by 108 total yards.  The Panthers had a Pick-6, and the Falcons got stopped time and time again in the red zone.

I think the Falcons were feeling fat and happy off their 22-6 road win over the Vikings on Sunday Night Football the week prior.  They simply had a letdown against the Panthers, and everything that could go wrong, did.  Now the Falcons are fully focused, pissed off and ready to bounce back against the Commanders this week.

The Falcons are fully healthy on offense with the exception of some backups, and they are fully healthy on defense with the exception of CB A.J. Terrell.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL heading into Week 4, and they have a massive health advantage over the Commanders in this one.  

The Falcons have one of the best defenses in the NFL allowing just 227.3 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play, which ranks 2nd and 4th in the NFL, respectively.  They also have a bye on deck next week, and I love betting teams coming off a bad loss with a bye on deck because I know I'm going to get a fully focused effort from them.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are beating everyone except the Tampa Bay Bucs over the last few seasons.  They were knocked out of the playoffs two years ago by the Bucs, and they lost to the Bucs again in the regular season last year.  So there will be no letdown here for the Eagles as they want some serious revenge on this team.

The Eagles were extremely banged up in their last two losses to the Bucs, but now the Bucs are the team that is banged up while the Eagles are healthy, and they are going to get their revenge as a result.

The Bucs could easily be 0-3 instead of 3-0.  They have needed three game-winning drives by Baker Mayfield to beat the Falcons by 3, the Texans by 1 and the Jets by 2.  Mayfield has been able to cover up many of their flaws against suspect competition, but he won't be able to cover them up this week against the defending Super Bowl champs.

The Bucs are without two starting offensive linemen in RT Luke Goedeke and RG Cody Mauche.  LT Tristan Wirfs is questionable and not 100%.  WR Mike Evans went out with a hamstring injury last week and has been ruled out.  QB Mayfield is questionable with a biceps injury.  WR Jalen McMillan is out, and WR Chris Godwin may make his season debut this week but is coming off a torn ACL and may only be a shell of his former self.  The Bucs are without their best pass rusher in D Calijah Kancey, and DE Logan Hall is questionable.

The Eagles are fully healthy on offense and got their passing game going finally last week in a comeback win over the Rams.  They are without LB Nakobe Dean and LB Nolan Smith Jr., but they are deep at the position.  They are without CB Adoree Jackson, but he's one of of the worst corners in the league and I actually think they will be better off without him.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +7

It's time to 'sell high' on the 3-0 Chargers and 'buy low' on the 0-3 Giants.  This is max line value due to their records, and there are several reasons to like the Giants to stay within this 7-point spread and possibly pull off the upset Sunday.

The Chargers not only 3-0, but all three wins came against their three division opponents in the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos.  They are 'fat and happy' with a 2-game lead in the division, and now they have to travel out East for the first time this season for the dreaded 10 AM body clock game for West Coast teams.

The injuries are starting to pile up for the Chargers, too.  They are without RB Najee Harris, TE Will Dissly, RG Mekhi Becton, and could be without C Bradley Bozeman, who is questionable.  They were already without LT Rashawn Slater and backup RT Savion Washington, and starting RT Trey Pipkins III was hobbled last week and won't be 100%.

Defensively, the Chargers are without LB Khalil Mack and LB Denzel Perryman, plus they have three players in the secondary on IR.  They gutted out a 23-20 home win over the Broncos last week despite all these injuries, and now they are primed for a letdown this week.

The Giants don't usually have a very big home-field advantage.  But that changes this week with the announcement that 1st-round pick Jaxson Dart will start at QB.  I saw enough from him in college and enough in the preseason to know he's going to be a future star like Jayden Daniels, and Dart and the Giants have the element of surprise working in their favor heading into this one.

Dart opens up so much more of the playbook than Russell Wilson, who is too short to use the middle of the field and is only good on deep balls against man-to-man coverage.  No offense has been worse in the red zone than the Giants because Wilson is just incapable of using the entire end zone.  Dart is great in the run-pass option game, which is going to open everything up.

The Giants are coming off a misleading 22-9 loss to the Chiefs.  They were only outgained by 25 yards, but they failed time and time again in the red zone, and their kicker got injured pregame to boot.  They fumbled going in for a TD as well.  That misleading loss has created some line value as the Giants should have covered +6.5, but it was just another bad beat that I've suffered early int he season and there have been a plethora of them.  Those breaks will start to go our way, starting with this week.

The Giants are also one of the healthiest temas in the NFL.  Their entire offensive line is intact, and the only player they are missing on offense is RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., who has been mostly innefective thus far anyway with rookie Cam Skattebo being the much more productive back.  Skattebo is going to thrive in this read-option offense as defenders will have to account for Dart's legs.

I like this Giants defense with one of the best defensive lines in the league.  They have the horses to take advantage of this banged-up Chargers offensive line to get constant pressure on Justin Herbert.  I think they will hold him in check enough, and Dart and company will be good enough to stay within this 7-point spread.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on New England Patriots -5

It's time to 'buy low' on the New England Patriots off a misleading 21-14 loss to the Steelers last week, and 'sell high' on the Carolina Panthers after a misleading 30-0 win over the Falcons last week.  This is the perfect storm for value, and the Patriots are going to easily win this game by a TD or more Sunday to get us the cover.

The Patriots gave the game away against the Steelers by committing 5 turnovers including two at the 1-yard line when they were going in for touchdowns, taking 14 points off the board right there.  They dominated the stats outgaining the Steelers 369 to 203, or by 166 total yards.  I trust in head coach Mike Vrabel to correct the mistakes, and I expect his team to respond in a big way this week.

The Panthers are 'fat and happy' after nabbing their first win of the season in a 30-0 win over the Falcons last week.  They were actually outgained 334 to 224 by the Falcons, or by 110 total yards.  But they benefited from three turnovers including a pick-6.  The Falcons took the Panthers lightly coming off their 22-6 win over the Vikings on Sunday Night Football and they paid for it.  The Falcons won't make the same mistake.

I'm not so sure the Panthers aren't the worst team in the NFL still.  They lost 26-10 at Jacksonville in Week 1, and they trailed Arizona 27-3 in the 2H before a plethora of injuries to the Cardinals secondary allowed the Panthers to make it interesting late.  The Panthers are only averaging 4.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.7 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.3 yards per play which is one of the worst marks in the NFL.

The Patriots are great against the run.  They have had 56 running back carries against them and have only allowed one carry of more than 12 yards all season.  They rank 2nd in the NFL in yards before 1st contact on opponent runs, and 2nd in the NFL in defending outside zone runs, which is what the Panthers like to do offensively.

The Patriots are also the much healthier team coming into this one.  They are expected to get star CB Christian Gonzalez in the lineup for the first time this season.  The only starter they will for sure be without is LG Jared Wilson.  They have three other starters questionable that are all likely to play.

The Panthers are seriously banged up right now.  They are going to be without four starters in WR Xavier Legette, TE Ja'Tavion Sanders, LB D.J. Wonnum and LB Patrick Jones II.  They were already without two starers on the offensive line in C Austin Corbett and RG Robert Hunt.  And two more playmakers in WR Terairoa McMillan and RB Chuba Hubbard are both questionable, plus they were already without WR Jalen Coker.  Bryce Young is going to be very short on playmakers and running for his life for four quarters.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* Vikings/Steelers NFL Dublin No-Brainer on Minnesota ML -140

The Minnesota Vikings were dominant in Carson Wentz's first game as a starter.  Head coach Kevin O'Connell is working wonders with another veteran QB, and Wentz is probably an upgrade over rookie JJ McCarthy and his injury could prove to be a blessing in disguise for this team.

The Vikings smashed the Bengals 48-10 at home last week.  Obviously they were aided by 5 turnovers and a couple defensive touchdowns, but this is one of the best defenses in the NFL and the reason I trust the Vikings.  Wentz went 14-of-20 for 173 yards and 2 TD while Jordan Mason rushed for 116 yards and a pair of scores.

The Vikings opened the season pretty banged up but now they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  They have LT Chrstian Darrisaw and C Ryan Kelly back this week.  They are only missing LG Donavan Jackson, and they get back WR Jordan Addison from a 3-game suspension to give Wentz another weapon.  This offense is absolutely loaded with playmakers.  LB Blake Cashman went on IR after week 1, and LB Andrew Van Ginkel is out this week, but they got FS Harrison Smith back and are fully healthy everywhere else on defense.

As high as I am on the Vikings, this play is more of a fade of the Pittsburgh Steelers than anything.  They should be 0-3, but are overvalued after a 2-1 start.  They beat the Jets 34-32 in their opener despite giving up 394 total yards and getting outgained by 123 yards.  That performance looks really bad after seeing the Jets offense the last two weeks in their 0-3 start.

The Steelers were thoroughly dominated in a 31-17 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2.  They allowed 395 yards to the Seahawks and were outgained by 128 yards.  And last week was the most misleading of them all, a 21-14 win at New England in which the Patriots gave the game away by committing 5 turnovers including two at the 1-yard line going in for scores.  They allowed 369 total yards to the Patriots and were outgained by 166 yards.

Aaron Rodgers is 6-of-22 (27%) passing when pressured this season.  No defensive coordinator brings more pressure than Brian Flores and his blitz-happy style.  Last year, Rodgers threw 3 interceptions against Flores and the Vikings, and Jets head coach Robert Saleh was fired after that 23-17 defeat.

The Vikings are averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.  The Steelers are averaging 247 yards per game and 4.8 per play on offense and allowing 386 yards per game and 6.1 per play on defense, getting outgained by 139 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play.  Those are some of the worst numbers in the NFL through three weeks.

The Steelers have a broken offense and RB Jaylen Warren and TE Jonnu Smith are both questionable.  Aaron Rodgers won't be able to do anything against this blitz-heavy.  They have a broken defense mostly due to injuries.  They are without two starters in LB Alex Highsmith and DE Isaiah Loudermilk, and CB Joey Porter Jr. and SS DeShon Elliott are questionable.  They are relying on a lot of aging veterans and this is one of the worst defenses of the Mike Tomlin era.  Bet the Vikings on the Money Line Sunday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on LA Tech/UTEP OVER 47.5

UTEP is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Miners rank 6th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.1 seconds.  This total of 47.5 is too low for a game involving UTEP this season.

The Miners have a very talented transfer QB in Malachi Nelson.  He was the 2nd-rated QB in the country when he committed to USC.  Nelson has thrown for 1,069 yards and 8 TD and is the perfect fit for this up-tempo offense under offensive-minded head coach Scotty Walden.

Sonny Cumbie is also an offensive-minded head coach.  Since switching QB's to Blake Baker, the LA Tech Bulldogs have thrived offensively the last two weeks scoring 49 points on New Mexico State and 30 on Southern Miss.  Baker is averaging 10.4 yards per attempt, but he also is a dual-threat with 145 rushing yards and 2 scores.  The Bulldogs also prefer to play faster than average ranking 50th in tempo snapping the ball every 25.6 seconds.

Both of UTEP's home games this season where they control the tempo have sailed over the total.  They beat Tennessee Martin 42-17 for 59 combined points easily going over the 49-point total.  They lost 31-25 to Louisiana-Monroe for 56 combined points and a total of 47.  That's a ULM team that plays at the 2nd-slowest tempo in the country and exclusively runs the football, too.  This will be another shootout in El Paso Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Oregon/Penn State NBC ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +3.5

Penn State is getting too much credit for this being a white out game at night.  Oregon is the better team and should not be catching 3.5 points in a game that could easily be decided by a FG either way.  We'll gladly take advantage and grab the value off the key number of 3.

Oregon is absolutely steamrolling its opponents this season opening 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS.  The only game they failed to cover they led Northwestern 34-0 before calling off the dogs and winning 34-14 as 26.5-point favorites after two 4th quarter TD's by the Wildcats in garbage time.

They also beat Montana State 59-13 as 29-point favorites, Oklahoma State 69-3 as 28.5-point favorites and Oregon State 41-7 as 33.5-point favorites.  That win over the Beavers was even a bigger blowout than the final score showed as they outgained them 585 to 147, or by 438 total yards.

I like the fact that the Ducks made easy work of the Beavers because they should still be very fresh despite playing for a 5th consecutive week.  They know they have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for this showdown at Penn State Saturday night.

Penn State is 3-0 SU but 0-3 ATS this season.  The Nittany Lions have played the 228th-ranked schedule in the country, which is 119 spots easier than that of Oregon to this point.  Their three wins came against Nevada 46-11 as 42.5-point favorites, FIU 34-0 as 42-point favorites and Villanova 52-6 as 46.5-point favorites.  Talk about the easiest schedule I've ever seen through three weeks.

Despite playing the more difficult schedule, the Ducks still have the more impressive numbers, especially offensively which is where they'll have a big edge over Penn State.  Oregon is averaging 8.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 4.1 yards per play.  Penn State is averaging 6.4 per play on offense and allowing 3.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.8 yards per play.

The difference in this game is going to be Oregon actually has an elite QB, while the QB position is holding Penn State back once again.  Drew Allar has come up short time and time again against teams with a pulse.  He is only averaging 7.1 yards per attempt thus far despite playing the easiest schedule in the country of all the top teams.

The Ducks have a legit QB in UCLA transfer Dante Moore.  He is completing 74.7% of his passes, averaging 10.1 yards per attempt, and has a 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He is also a dual-threat averaging 6.2 yards per rush.  Allar gives them nothing with his scrambling, averaging 2.7 per attempt despite the soft schedule.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida Atlantic +14

Memphis is overvalued after a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season against the 95th-ranked schedule in the country.  They beat FCS Chattanooga 45-10 as 30.5-point favorites.  That's the same Chattanooga team that went on to lose 45-17 to Tennessee Tech.

Memphis beat Georgia State 38-16 as 14.5-point road favorites in Week 2.  That's the same Georgia State team that lost 63-7 to Ole Miss and 70-21 to Vanderbilt.  Memphis beat Troy 28-7, which lost starting QB Goose Crowder on the opening drive to injury, and the drop off to the backup was enormous.  Kilcrease finished 10-of-29 for 65 yards and an INT in Crowder's place.

I can't say I'm 100% sure how good Memphis is, but I can say 100% sure they aren't as good as their record and margins of victory would indicate due to the circumstances and softness of their schedule.  I don't like Nevada transfer QB Brendon Lewis, who is a better runner than he is a thrower, which isn't what this Memphis offense is known for.  They are known for having great pocket passers through the years.

This might be Ryan Silverfield's worst team since going 7-6 in 2022.  They only brought back 9 starters this season and lost 14 of their top 15 tacklers on D, each of their top 4 receivers, and leading rusher Mario Anderson who has 1,362 yards and 18 TD last season.  Silverfield had to hit the transfer portal, and I'm just not high on all the replacements.

Memphis is coming off its 'National Championship' game last week in a 32-31 upset home victory over SEC opponent Arkansas as 7-point dogs.  Arkansas led that game 28-10 and took its foot off the gas.  The Razorbacks also fumbled inside the 10-yard line in the closing seconds as they were just trying to set up the game-winning FG.  Memphis did not win that game, Arkansas lost it.

Now Memphis is fat and happy after a 4-0 start and primed for a letdown of its own at Florida Atlantic this week.  This is a FAU team that is coming off a bye week with two full weeks to prepare for Memphis.  That's a huge advantage.  It's also even bigger for first-year head coaches like FAU's Zach Kittley, who was the offensive coordinator at Texas Tech the last three years.

Kittley was able to recruit a lot of offensive talent with players wanting to play in his system.  He nabbed Western Kentucky transfer QB Caden Veltkamp, who is completing 65.2% of his passes for 880 yards and 8 TD in just three games thus far.  WR Easton Messer came with Veltkamp from WKU and has 25 receptions for 213 yards already.  Colorado transfer Asaad Waseem has 14 receptions for 163 yards and 3 TD.  Four starters on the O-Line are from Indiana, Louisville, FSU and Maryland.  The defense is loaded with Power 4 transfers as well.

FAU remains undervalued from a misleading 39-7 loss at Maryland in the opener for Kittley and company.  FAU committed 6 turnovers and was -6 in turnovers.  They were only outgained by 26 yards by the Terrapins.  They came back with a 56-14 home win over Florida A&M as 21.5-point favorites before a 38-28 loss at rival Florida International where they were -2 in turnovers and outgained the Panthers by 70 yards for another misleading final.  Memphis is primed for an upset here, so sprinkle a little on the money line as this 14-point spread is outrageous.  Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Memphis/Florida Atlantic OVER 61

Florida Atlantic is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Owls rank 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 18.7 seconds.  The 2nd-fasted team snaps it every 20.3 seconds, which is WVU under Rich Rodriquez.  FAU is averaging 85 plays per game, 30.3 points per game and 461.7 yards per game through three games.

Zach Kittley was the offensive coordinator at Texas Tech the last three years and the OC at Western Kentucky in 2021.  His offenses are always fast-paced and pass-happy, air raid offenses.  Kittley was able to recruit a lot of offensive talent with players wanting to play in his system.  

He nabbed Western Kentucky transfer QB Caden Veltkamp, who is completing 65.2% of his passes for 880 yards and 8 TD in just three games thus far.  WR Easton Messer came with Veltkamp from WKU and has 25 receptions for 213 yards already.  Colorado transfer Asaad Waseem has 14 receptions for 163 yards and 3 TD.  Four starters on the O-Line are from Indiana, Louisville, FSU and Maryland.

FAU's defense will be a problem all season with just two starters back.  They allowed 39 points to Maryland and 38 to Florida International, which are two mediocre offenses.  Memphis is averaging 35.8 points per game, 438 yards per game and 6.6 per play and will be able to hang a big number on this FAU defense, but I think FAU is more than capable of keeping up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Tennessee/Mississippi State OVER 61.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 20.6 seconds.  What makes that so amazing is that they have just kept their foot on the gas despite blowing out three of their four opponents.  They only know one speed.  They were even going hurry up trying to score up 32 on UAB in the final seconds last week.

Tennessee is 4-0 to the OVER this season combining for 71 points with Syracuse, 89 points with East Tennessee State, 85 points with Georgia and 80 points with UAB.  This total of 61.5 is very short for a game involving Tennessee right now.

The offense got a big upgrade at QB with Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar, who is completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns in four games.  But the defense for Tennessee is a problem allowing 26 points to Syracuse, 44 to Georgia and 24 to UAB.  The Volunteers are without three starters on defense due to injury which is part of the problem.

Mississippi State also profiles as an OVER team ranking 17th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.5 seconds.  QB Blake Shapen is back healthy this season and completing 66.3% of his passes for 882 yards and 7 touchdowns.  He will be up to the task trying to keep up with Tennessee in a shootout this week.

I think this number is lower than it should be due to Mississippi State playing three opponents that profile as under teams in Southern Miss, Arizona State and Northern Illinois.  The one game they went over they did it themselves in a 63-0 win over Alcorn State with a total of 55.5.  The Southern Miss game stayed under because it was the first game of the season, Arizona State ranks 94th in tempo and is a defensive-minded team, and NIU rank 118th in tempo with one of the worst offenses in the country.

Both offenses will be all gas no brakes in this one.  This should be a competitive game so both teams will be looking to keep scoring.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Mississippi State +7.5

It's time to 'buy low' on Mississippi State after a 2-10 season.  Jeff Lebby stepped into a tough situation with just nine returning starters in his first season.  The Bulldogs held their own against many of the top teams in the country losing by 7 to Arizona State, by 10 to Georgia, by 10 to Texas A&M and by 12 to Ole Miss.  Now they will be one of the most improved teams in the country in Year 2 for Lebby.

The Bulldogs return 16 starters and get their stud QB Blake Shapen back from injury after being lost for the year after four starts.  Shapen completed 69% of his passes for 974 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio in those four starts while also rushing for two scores.  Nine starters in all are back on offense as this will be an explosive unit.

But the biggest improvement should come from a defense that allowed 34.1 points and 456 yards per game last season.  Seven starters and four of the top five tacklers are back, plus they added a lot of talent through the portal.  They are bigger up front this year and improved at DE particularly to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

The Bulldogs made easy work of Southern Miss in a 34-17 win as 14-point favorites in the opener.  They led 34-10 before calling off the dogs in the 4th quarter.  They won and covered against a Southern Miss team that many are very high on due to getting Marshall head coach Charlie Huff and many of his players from a team that won the Sun Belt last season.

They are now 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  They avenged their loss to Arizona State last year with a 24-20 upset win as 6.5-point home dogs.  They crushed Alcorn State 63-0 as 42-point favorites.  And they crushed Northern Illinois 38-10 as 24-point favorites.  Now they are getting too many points here in their SEC opener against Tennessee.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

Shapen is completing 66.3% of his passes for 882 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio to prove he is back.  He leads an offense that is scoring 39.8 points per game and averaging 6.7 yards per play.  And that improvement on defense has been real as the Bulldogs are allowing just 11.8 points per game, 264 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.

This will be Tennessee's first true road game of the season.  The Volunteers have beaten up on Syracuse, East Tennessee State and UAB to inflate their numbers.  But they lost 44-41 at home to Georgia in their lone step up game.  And now I wouldn't be surprised to see them fall to 0-2 in SEC play this week.

Tennessee has an elite offense, but the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  They are missing three starters on defense and aren't nearly as strong as they were a year ago on this side of the ball as their defense led them to the 12-team playoff.  Tennessee allowed 26 points to Syracuse, 24 to UAB and 44 to Georgia.  Shapen and company will be able to match them score for score in what will be a hostile atmosphere with cowbells banging in Starkville Saturday afternoon.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +115

The Boston Red Sox just clinched a spot in the playoffs with a win yesterday and celebrated.  They don't care about the results of these final two games as they are now locked into the No. 5 seed in the American League.  They should not be favored over the Detroit Tigers today as a result.

That's especially the case when you consider the Tigers have a lot to play for.  They are tied with the Cleveland Guardians for 1st place in the AL Central and lose out on the tiebreaker.  They also have to fend off the Astros, who are one game behind them for the final wild card spot.

Keider Montera has performed well as a starter this season going 4-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 11 starts.  He will likely be facing a Red Sox lineup full of backups as they will likely rest their guys over these final two games to get them refreshed for the postseason.  Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -6.5

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are absolutely gassed right now.  They will be playing for a 6th consecutive week to open the season after a gut-wrenching 23-21 home loss to Fresno State last week.  Now they have to go to the mainland and face the triple-option offense of Air Force, a very physical brand of football that I don't think they'll handle well at all given how tired they are.

Hawaii QB Micah Alejado is playing through injury and you can tell.  He is only averaging 5.0 yards per pass attempt with a 3-to-4 TD/INT ratio despite playing a very soft schedule.  I is also averaging just 2.0 yards per attempt on the ground.  Hawaii is averaging just 22.0 points per game and 4.6 yards per play despite the soft schedule.

The Rainbow Warriors don't have the firepower to keep up with Air Force, which has proven to be dynamic on offense with new QB Liam Szarka.  He led the Falcons to 37 points and 517 total yards against a very good Boise State defense last week.  Szarka went 13-of-18 passing for 248 yards and 2 touchdowns, while also rushing for 111 yards and a score.  The sophomore could prove to be the next great Air Force QB.

Air Force has a massive rest advantage after having a bye week already this season.  This will be just the 4th game in 5 weeks for Air Force while it's the 6th game in 6 weeks for Hawaii.  The Falcons will be extra motivated after already suffering two MWC losses to Utah State and Boise State.  They won't be taking Hawaii lightly.  Hawaii lost 40-6 at Arizona in its lone trip to the mainland earlier this season.  Bet Air Force Saturday.

15* LSU/Ole Miss ABC ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss PK

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between LSU and Ole Miss.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Ole Miss wants revenge from a 29-26 (OT) loss at LSU last season, and I think they get it at home this time around.

The injury to sophomore QB Austin Simmons was a blessing in disguise for Ole Miss.  It allowed senior QB Trinidad Chambliss to shine and make the decision easy on Lane Kiffin to stick with him moving forward.

Chambliss came in for an injured Simmons to lead the 41-35 home win over Arkansas two weeks ago.  And last week in his first full game as a starter, Chambliss led the Rebels to a 45-10 home win over Tulane.  That was a tricky sandwich spot coming off SEC wins over Kentucky and Arkansas, and with LSU on deck, and Chambliss led the way.

That was a Tulane team with impressive wins over Duke and Northwestern prior to facing Ole Miss.  The Rebels nearly pitched a shutout outgaining the Green Wave 558 to 282, or by 276 total yards.  Chambliss is completing 67.7% of his passes for 719 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 11.6 per attempt.  But his biggest asset is his running ability, rushing for 195 yards and two scores already in limited action.

LSU is also 4-0 but it's easy to knock some of their wins.  Their 17-10 win at Clemson looks much less impressive now with Clemson sitting at 1-3 on the season and nearly losing to Troy.  They were upset on the road at Georgia Tech and upset at home as 17.5-point favorites to Syracuse.

LSU also only beat Florida 20-10 despite being +4 in turnovers and the Gators turning it over 5 times to hand them the win.  Florida also sits at 1-3 with losses to South Florida at home and a 26-7 blowout at Miami after losing to LSU.

This LSU offense looks broken, and QB Garrett Nussmeier is clearly playing through injury.  I just don't think the offense has the firepower to keep up with Kiffin and company, and the defense hasn't been tested by a decent offense yet and both Florida and Clemson have looked rough on that side of the ball, and the other two opponents were LA Tech and SE Louisiana.  LSU only managed 23 points against LA Tech as well.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on UL-Monroe ML -120

Arkansas State is gassed.  The Red Wolves will be playing for a 5th consecutive week to start the season.  They lost 56-14 to Arkansas, 24-16 to Iowa State and 28-21 at Kennesaw State last week.  They had nothing left for Kennesaw State last week after playing Arkansas and Iowa State, and they certainly won't have anything left for UL-Monroe this week.

UL-Monroe had a bye two weeks ago and will be playing just its 4th game in 5 weeks.  The Warhawks returned from their bye and upset UPTE 31-25 on the road as 5.5-point dogs.  They rushed for 252 yards and went 9-of-15 passing for 149 yards in the win.

The Warhawks are a run-heavy team that averages 218.7 rushing yards per game and 5.7 per carry despite one of their three opponents being Alabama.  That makes this a terrible matchup for an awful Arkansas State defense that is particularly poor against the run.

Arkansas State is allowing 33.0 points per game, 489 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play this season.  The Red Wolves are allowing 200.5 rushing yards per game and 5.8 per carry.  They are a tired defense and stand very little chance of slowing down this ULM power-running attack.  Bet UL-Monroe on the Money Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-105)

The Yankees are tied with the Blue Jays for 1st place in the AL East.  They lose out on the tiebreaker, so this is a must-win game.  They would get the No. 1 seed and a bye into the divisional round by winning the division, whereas they would be a wild card without winning it and have to play a 3-game series to keep their hopes alive.

I like that the Yankees have the 1st game on the board today and play a couple hours before the Blue Jays do so they can put the pressure on them with a win.  I expect them to win this game by multiple runs and continue their hot streak to close out the season.  The Yankees are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with seven of their last eight wins coming by multiple runs.

Cam Schlittler is 3-3 with a 3.27 ERA in 13 starts this season for the Yankees.  He held the Orioles to one earned run in 5 1/3 innings of a 7-1 victory in his lone start against them on September 21st.

Tomoyuki Sugano is 10-9 with a 4.54 ERA in 29 starts this season.  Sugano is 0-4 with a 8.02 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 18 earned runs and 9 homers in 21 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 16 base runners in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Yankees this season.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on EMU/CMU OVER 54.5

These are two of the worst defenses in college football and this total of 54.5 is too short as a result.  Both offenses will have success and both should reach or exceed 28 points in this one.

Eastern Michigan is allowing 39.8 points per game, 504.5 yards per game and 7.5 yards per play.  The Eagles are allowing 14 points, 155 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play more than their opponents average on the season.

Central Michigan is allowing 33.0 points per game, 396.3 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play.  The Chippewas are allowing 6.1 points, 37 yards and 0.9 yards per play more than their opponents average.

Eastern Michigan allowed 52 points to Texas State, 28 points in an upset loss to Long Island, 48 points to one of the worst offenses in the country in Kentucky, and 31 points to another one of the worst offenses in the country in Louisiana with a backup QB.  But Eastern Michigan has shown a lot offensively against a tough schedule of opposing defenses scoring at least 23 points in all four games.

Central Michigan allowed 63 points to Michigan and 45 points to Pittsburgh.  I like QB Joey Labas, who led this CMU offense to 506 yards and 49 points against Wagner last week while throwing 3 touchdown passes.  I also like EMU QB Noah Kim, who is completing 64% of his passes for 993 yards and 5 TD despite the tough schedule.  He has also rushed for a pair of scores.  Both QB's will have their way with these soft defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah State +22.5

It's time to 'sell high' on Vanderbilt after opening 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  The wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina don't look as good now, and the blowout win over Georgia State doesn't look as good either considering Georgia State also lost 63-7 to Ole Miss.

Many were calling for a letdown last week against Georgia State, but Vanderbilt wasn't having it as they wanted revenge after one of their losses last season actually came to Georgia State in a big upset.  This week is the letdown spot against Utah State.  That's especially the case with their biggest game of the season on deck at Alabama that they will be looking ahead to.

Bronco Mendenhall wins everywhere he goes, and his blueprint is already working wonders at Utah State in Year 1.  The Aggies are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season with their lone loss coming at Texas A&M 44-22 as a 35-point dogs.  Texas A&M just beat Notre Dame on the road and may be a playoff contender this season.  If they can stay within 22 points of A&M on the road, they can stay within 22.5 of Vanderbilt on the road.

Utah State also beat UTEP 28-16 as 6-point favorites in the opener and Air Force 49-30 as 4.5-point dogs.  They avoided the letdown last week in a 48-7 win as 24-point favorites over McNeese State.  Mendenhall hit the transfer portal hard, and incumbent starting QB Bryan Barnes is the perfect fit for his offense.

The Utah transfer Barnes came on strong for the Aggies last season and has a ton of starting experience.  He is completing 65.4% of his passes with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.2 per attempt, while also rushing for 197 yards and 6 TD as one of the better dual-threat QB's in the country.  He's basically a clone of Vanderbilt's Diego Paiva with the toughness and leadership he plays with.

Utah State is averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing just 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.  Those are elite numbers, and Mendenhall, Barnes and the Aggies will be treating this as their 'National Championship' game getting to go on the road and face a SEC team.  Vanderbilt's 'National Championship' game is next week at Alabama.  It's easy to see which team is going to be more motivated this week.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on USC/Illinois OVER 59

USC is putting up the best offensive numbers in the country to this point.  The Trojans are scoring 52.5 points per game, averaging 584 yards per game and 9.2 yards per play.  This despite calling off the dogs with four straight blowout wins over Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue and Michigan State.

This is a competitively lined game with USC -6.5, so they shouldn't have to take their foot off the gas this week.  Indiana didn't take its foot off the gas last week in a 63-10 home victory over Illinois.  That game got out of hand because 7 of Illinois' 10 defensive backs were hurt and they were relying on backups.  Well, those cluster injuries in the secondary will be a big problem for Illinois again this week against this high-octane USC attack.

Illinois is going to be forced to try to keep up in a shootout.  This Illinois offense was impressive prior to the Indiana game.  The Fighting Illini put up 52 on Western Illinois, 45 on Duke and 38 on Western Michigan.  With 10 starters back on offense, this Illini unit is one of the better offenses in the Big Ten.

Senior QB Luke Altmyer is completing 70% of his passes with a 9-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  Senior WR Hank Beatty has been a monster with 21 receptions for 302 yards.  USC is far from a juggernaut on defense, and certainly not as good as that Indiana defense that Illinois just faced.  This has the makings of another shootout involving USC.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Duke/Syracuse OVER 59.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams that like to play fast, efficient offense square off Saturday in what should be a shootout between Duke and Syracuse inside perfect conditions in a dome.  Syracuse ranks 5th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.6 seconds.  Duke ranks 9th snapping it ever 22.7 seconds.  So this is a matchup of two Top 10 tempo teams.

Duke is 4-0 OVER in its four games finishing with 62, 64, 61 and 78 combined points.  The Blue Devils have an elite offense scoring 34.0 points per game, averaging 465.5 yard per game and 7.2 yards per play.  But the Blue Devils have an ugly defense, allowing 32.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play.  They allowed 45 points to Illinois, 34 to Tulane and 33 to NC State.

Syracuse is 3-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Orange boast an electric offense once again this season averaging 38.3 points per game, 473.3 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  That's really impressive when you consider they have faced Tennessee and Clemson, two great defenses.  The Orange are allowing 27.5 points per game, 458 yards per game and 5.9 per play defensively.

I know Syracuse QB Steve Angeli was lost for the season with a torn Achilles against Clemson last week.  But keep in mind backup QB Rickie Collins actually won the job in the spring before barely losing out to Angeli in the fall.  Fran Brown clearly has a lot of faith in him, and he kept the points coming after Angeli exited against Clemson last week.  The sophomore Collins is a LSU transfer who was the 12th-ranking QB in the country coming out of high school.  He'll be comfortable in his first start at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Houston/Oregon State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston -12.5

This is one of the biggest scheduling disadvantages you will see all season for Oregon State.  The Beavers will be playing for a 5th consecutive week, on a short week, off a brutal schedule that has them absolutely gassed right now.

After losing 34-15 at home to California and 36-27 at home to Fresno State, the Beavers went on the road and lost 45-14 at Texas Tech.  They had nothing left for Oregon last week in their biggest rivalry in the Civil War and it showed, losing 41-7.  They were outgained 585 to 147 by the Ducks, or by 438 total yards.  It was an even bigger blowout than the 41-7 final showed.

Oregon State has played the 2nd-most difficult schedule in the country.  The Beavers are lost program right now without a conference to play in and I just don't see it going much better for them moving forward.  They will have zero home-field advantage Friday night after that 0-4 start as fans are already fed up with this team and this head coach.

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They finally got the head coach that can turn this program around in Willie Fritz.  He led Sam Houston to back-to-back FCS title games, led Georgia Southern to a Sun Belt title in his first season, and led Tulane to 12-2 and Cotton Bowl champs in 2022 and 11-1 and an AAC title game appearance in 2023.

The cupboard was bare for Fritz in his first season last year coming off a 4-8 campaign in 2023.  He only had nine starters back and the Cougars went 4-8 in his first season.  Now Fritz has 16 starters back in 2025 and all the pieces in place.  He brought back his offensive coordinator at Tulane in Slade Nagle, and nabbed defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong from Florida.

The Cougars are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season winning 27-0 over Stephen F. Austin as 24-point favorites, 35-9 at Rice as 14-point road favorites, and 36-20 over Colorado as 4-point home favorites.  Houston had a great defense last year holding foes to 22.9 points per game and 325 yards per game.  That defense is even better this season, allowing 9.7 points per game, 224 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play.

After having one of the worst offenses in the country last year, the Cougars finally have an offense this season with nine starters back.  They brought in Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman, who was a Top 5 recruit coming out of high school but just couldn't stay healthy in College Station.  Weigman is completing 64.3% of his passes for 569 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 145 yards and 3 scores.

Weigman and company are champing at the bit to get back on the field for this game against Oregon State after having a bye week.  They will be the fresher, more prepared team, while the Beavers will have nothing left in the tank off the Civil War and on a short week.  The spot couldn't be any better for the Cougars, who are by far the superior team as it is and should win by multiple touchdowns.  Bet Houston Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians -146

The Cleveland Guardians are 17-3 in their last 20 games overall and are now tied with the Detroit Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central and own the tiebreaker.  They will keep their foot on the gas today hosting the lifeless Texas Rangers.

The Rangers were right in the thick of the AL West race before getting swept by the Houston Astros September 15-17.  They have been lifeless since, going 1-9 in their last 10 games overall and have been eliminated from playoff contention.  That includes five losses to the Marlins and Twins.  They won't show up for this series against the Guardians, either.  They are just ready for their season to be over.

Slade Cecconi has allowed just 2 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a 0.87 ERA during this stretch.  Cecconi allowed just 2 earned runs and 4 base runners in 6 innings in his last start against Texas on August 22nd.

Jack Leiter is 3-7 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 14 road starts this season.  Leiter is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA in two career starts against Cleveland, allowing 6 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Friday.

20* FSU/Virginia ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 57.5

Two of the best offensive teams in the country square off Friday night in what should be an absolute shootout between Florida State and Virginia.  This total of 57.5 is too low and not accounting for just how good these offenses are.

Florida State ranks 1st in scoring offense at 58.0 points per game, 1st in total offense at 628.7 yards per game and 2nd at 8.9 yards per play.  Offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has made a huge difference, as has Boston College transfer Thomas Castellanos.  The dual-threat QB is the perfect fit for a Malzahn offense.

Virginia ranks 1st in scoring at 45.5 points per game, 5th in total offense at 564.5 yards per game and 17th at 7.2 yards per play.  North Texas transfer QB Chandler Morris is balling out in this offense that is loaded with weapons.  Morris is completing 70.8% of his passes for 1,050 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 132 yards and a score thus far.

Virginia will be forced to try to keep up in a shootout.  Against the only offense they faced with a pulse so far, they lost 35-31 for 66 combined points with NC State.  I think Florida State will hang at least 35 on them as well, and the Cavaliers can get to 28 or more in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Seahawks/Cardinals NFC West No-Brainer on Seattle +1

The Seattle Seahawks are by far the superior team over the Arizona Cardinals.  They have the better numbers, have played the tougher schedule, and have fared better against two common opponents already.  They are also the much healthier team and simply own the Cardinals, which are the biggest reasons I'm on them Thursday night.

Both teams have played the 49ers.  The Seahawks played the 49ers in Week 1 when the 49ers were much healthier and lost 17-13.  The Cardinals lost to the 49ers 16-15 last week, and the 49ers were without Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa and George Kittle, which were three players the Seahawks had to face.

The Seahawks beat the Saints 44-13 while the Cardinals only beat the Saints 20-13, and the Saints actually had a chance to tie the game in the closing seconds.  The Seahawks beat the Steelers 31-17 on the road, while the Cardinals only beat the Panthers 27-22 at home.  The Steelers are much better than the Cardinals for their only non common opponents thus far.

The Seahawks are averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play despite playing the tougher schedule.  The Cardinals are averaging 5.0 yards per ply on offense and allowing 5.0 yards per play on defense, breaking even in that department.

The Cardinals are missing 6 players in the secondary and are decimated in that area.  That includes starting CB Will Johnson.  LB Akeem Davis-Gaither is questionable.  Sam Darnold is forming great chemistry with Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Cooper Cupp and rookie Tory Horton.  He should light up this depleted Arizona defense.

The Cardinals have two starters questionable on the offensive line in LT Paris Johnson Jr. and LG Evan Brown.  They don't have much depth with three linemen on IR and another two questionable.  They just lost starting WR Zay Jones to a concussion on the final offensive play against the 49ers last week, so he won't be available Thursday.  Marvin Harrison Jr. has a case of the drops and just hasn't panned out in the NFL to this point.

Now the Cardinals will be up against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seahawks, which is easily the best defense they have faced after taking on the Panthers, Saints and 49ers.  The Seahawks are allowing just 15.7 points per game and 4.8 yards per play, which ranks 2nd and 6th in the NFL, respectively.  They are remarkably healthy on both sides of the football not missing a single starter with only two questionable.

This is a short week for both teams, but it favors the Seahawks.  They were in a 44-13 laugher against the Saints on Sunday so they were able to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.  The Cardinals were life and death with the 49ers, losing on a last-second FG to Mac Jones.  Couple that will all their injuries and this is a terrible time to be on a short week for Arizona.

The Seahawks own the Cardinals, going 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  They have held the Cardinals to 21 points or fewer in six consecutive meetings and an average of 14.0 points per game in their last six meetings.  It's clear they have Kyler Murray and this Arizona offense figured out, and their dominance defensively will once again be the key to them getting a win and cover here Thursday night.  Arizona has one of the worst home-field advantages in the NFL to boot.  Bet the Seahawks Thursday.

15* Army/East Carolina ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Army +5.5

I love backing service academies on short weeks.  The opponent doesn't have the proper time to prepare for the triple-option.  And we saw that East Carolina couldn't handle Army's triple option last season.  Wrong team favored here.

Army beat East Carolina 45-28 last season.  But this was a 38-7 game going into the 4th quarter before Army called off the dogs, and ECU got three garbage time TD's in the 4th quarter.  Army isn't as strong as last year, but I don't think ECU is as strong as they were last year, either.

Army has been undervalued since a 30-27 loss to Tarleton State as 14-point favorites in the opener.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Tarleton State play for the FCS National Championship this season they are that good and have been blasting everyone else.  Army responded with a 24-21 upset win as 17-point dogs at Kansas State in Week 2.

Army then got a bye week and came back and gave North Texas all they wanted in a 45-38 loss as 2.5-point dogs.  That's the same North Texas team that blasted Washington State 59-10 the week prior and is going to prove to be on the best non-Power 4 teams in the country.

While Army will be playing just its 2nd game in 3 weeks after having a bye, East Carolina will be playing its 5th game in less than 5 weeks.  The Pirates have only had 4 days to prepare for this Army triple-option after losing 34-13 at home to BYU as 6.5-point dogs last week.  That was a physical game that would have taken a lot out of them as well.

East Carolina's two wins this season have come against Campbell and Coastal Carolina.  Campbell is one of the worst teams in the FCS, and Coastal Carolina is one of the worst teams in FBS.  Campbell lost to Furman and Rhode Island and only beat Bryant by 2 in OT.  Coastal Carolina lost to Virginia by 41 and only beat Charleston Southern 13-0 as a 28.5-point favorite.

Army QB Dewayne Coleman has been in and out with injuries this season.  He sat out the Kansas State game, and backup QB Cale Hellums led the upset of the Wildcats.  Hellums got the start against North Texas and was replaced by Coleman, who played the better game to lead the comeback.  They have both proven they can play, so I'm not concerned if Coleman plays or not after exiting on the final drive of the North Texas game with a lower body injury.  Army is the better team with either QB.  Bet Army Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -136

The Cleveland Guardians are 17-2 in their last 19 games overall and are now hold a one-game lead over the Detroit Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central and own the tiebreaker.  They have made me a ton of money during this run and I'm going to continue to ride them because they have the kind of momentum that teams dream about late in the season.

Conversely, the Detroit Tigers are in the midst of one of the biggest choke jobs in MLB history.  They had a 15.5-game lead on the Guardians at one point, including an 11-game lead just within the last couple weeks.  The Tigers have gone 1-11 in their last 12 games overall including six straight home losses to the Guardians and Braves prior to dropping the first two games of this series in Cleveland.

It will be another raucous atmosphere in Cleveland tonight as the Guardians go for the sweep and grab a stranglehold on the AL Central.  I like their chance with rookie Parker Messick, who has come up clutch here down the stretch.  He is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in six starts for the Guardians this season.

Messick will have the element of surprise as the Tigers have not faced him yet, which will work to his advantage.  He will be comfortable tonight, while Detroit rookie Troy Melton will not be making his 4th career start on the road in a hostile environment.  Melton has allowed 6 earned runs in 10 innings in his two road starts this season.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona Diamondbacks +140

Everyone left the Arizona Diamondbacks for dead when they traded Eugenio Suarez to the Mariners at the deadline.  The Diamondbacks have had other plans, fighting their asses off to pull within one game of the final wild card spot in the National League with 5 games remaining.  They have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall and will continue to fight until the end.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 1.5 games ahead of the Padres in the NL West but basically 2 games ahead because they own the tiebreaker.  I question their motivation the rest of the way, and they certainly won't be as motivated as the Diamondbacks tonight.

Ryne Nelson has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season.  Nelson is 7-3 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 22 starts and 10 relief appearances.  He has been at his best at home, going 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 11 starts and 6 relief appearances in Arizona.  Nelson is 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in three career starts against the Dodgers, allowing just 4 earned runs and 14 base runners in 17 innings.

Blake Snell has huge home/road splits this season.  He is 0-3 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three road starts.  Snell is 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in his last four starts against the Diamondbacks, allowing 11 earned runs in 17 innings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Guardians -120

The Cleveland Guardians are 16-2 in their last 18 games overall and are now tied with the Detroit Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central and own the tiebreaker.  They have made me a ton of money during this run and I'm going to continue to ride them because they have the kind of momentum that teams dream about late in the season.

Conversely, the Detroit Tigers are in the midst of one of the biggest choke jobs in MLB history.  They had a 15.5-game lead on the Guardians at one point, including an 11-game lead just within the last couple weeks.  The Tigers have gone 1-10 in their last 11 games overall including six straight home losses to the Guardians and Braves prior to a Game 1 loss to the Guardians after blowing a 2-0 lead.

Tanner Bibee has come up clutch for the Guardians down the stretch allowing just 3 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings with 21 K's in his last three starts for a 1.25 ERA during this stretch.  He has owned the Tigers, allowing just one earned run in 13 innings with 16 K's for a 0.69 ERA in two starts against them in 2025.

Jack Flaherty is 8-14 with a 4.60 ERA in 30 starts this season, including 3-6 with a 5.20 ERA in 13 road starts.  Bibee is 4-5 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 13 home starts this season.  Bet the Guardians Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +175

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season going 11-1 in their last 12 games overall.  They are hitting the cover off the ball scoring at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 15 games, and 4 runs or more in 14 of them.  They will continue to play hard to close out the season, and that makes this a great value play on the Marlins as massive road underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 2 of this series.

The Phillies have already clinched the NL East and basically clinched a Top 2 seed in the National League, which gives them a bye to avoid the wild card round.  They have been going through the motions and will continue to do so over the final week.  The Phillies are 1-4 in their last five games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer after 9 innings in all four losses.

I actually give the Marlins the advantage on the mound tonight despite being such massive underdogs.  Ryan Weathers is 2-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in seven starts for the Marlins this season.

Jesus Luzardo is 14-7 with a 4.08 ERA in 31 starts this season, including 7-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 15 home starts.  Luzardo is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three starts against the Marlins this season.  Getting to face him for a 4th time this season is an advantage to Miami hitters.  Bet the Marlins Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +145

Everyone left the Arizona Diamondbacks for dead when they traded Eugenio Suarez to the Mariners at the deadline.  The Diamondbacks have had other plans, fighting their asses off to pull within one game of the final wild card spot in the National League with 6 games remaining.  They have gone 6-2 in their last eight games overall and will continue to fight until the end.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 2.5 games ahead of the Padres in the NL West but basically 3.5 games ahead because they own the tiebreaker.  I question their motivation the rest of the way, and they certainly won't be as motivated as the Diamondbacks tonight.

Shohei Ohtani has been solid but unspectacular.  He has a 3.29 ERA in 13 starts this season and hasn't once made it past the 5th inning as the Dodgers have been cautious with him.  They will make this a bullpen game once again.

Brandon Pfaadt took only 97 pitched for a complete game in a 5-1 win over the Giants in his last start allowing just two base runners and one unearned run.  Pfaadt has huge home/road splits this season at 9-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 16 home starts.  He is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in three career home starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-110)

The Seattle Mariners have come up massively clutch down the stretch to gain a 3-game lead on the Houston Astros in the AL West with 6 games to go.  They have gone 14-1 in their last 15 games overall.  They still have a lot to play for not only to try and clinch the division, but also to get a Top 2 seed in the American League to get a bye and avoid the wild card round.  They have a 2-game lead on the Tigers for the No. 2 seed.

They aren't about to let up against the Rockies, who are 6-23 in their last 29 games overall with 20 of those losses coming by 2 runs or more.  It looks as if McCade Brown will be getting the bulk of the innings for the Rockies today.  Brown is 0-4 with a 9.17 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in five starts, allowing 18 earned runs and 37 base runners in 17 2/3 innings.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Yankees -1.5 (-105)

The New York Yankees have a lot to play for.  They trail the Toronto Blue Jays by 2 games in the AL East with six games against two of the worst teams in baseball remaining in the White Sox and Orioles.  Look for them to handle their business with a win by multiple runs tonight over the lowly White Sox.

Luis Gil is 4-1 with a 3.33 ERA in nine starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.11 ERA in four home starts.  He'll be facing a White Sox team that is 1-8 in their last nine games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer in seven of the eight losses, and 2 runs or fewer six times.

The Yankees are 5-1 in their last six games overall while scoring 6 runs or more in all five victories, hitting the cover off the ball right now.  Shane Smith allowed 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against the Orioles coming in.  

The Yankees are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with the White Sox with all 8 wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +205

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season going 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  They are hitting the cover off the ball scoring at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 14 games, and 4 runs or more in 13 of them.  They will continue to play hard to close out the season, and that makes this a great value play on the Marlins as massive road underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of this series.

The Phillies have already clinched the NL East and basically clinched a Top 2 seed in the National League, which gives them a bye to avoid the wild card round.  They have been going through the motions and will continue to do so over the final week.  The Phillies are 1-3 in their last four games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer in all three losses.

Edward Cabrera is 7-7 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 24 starts for the Marlins this season.  Cabrera has owned the Phillies, allowing just one earned run in 13 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them.  This guy is too good to be a +200 underdog today.

Cristopher Sanchez allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings in his last start and has a 3.62 ERA in his last five starts.  The Phillies won't hesitate to pull their starting pitchers early here over the final week to save them for the postseason.  Bet the Marlins Tuesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Guardians +144

The Cleveland Guardians are 15-2 in their last 17 games overall and are now tied for the final wild card spot and only one game behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.  They have made me a ton of money during this run and I'm going to continue to ride them because they have the kind of momentum that teams dream about late in the season.

Conversely, the Detroit Tigers are in the midst of one of the biggest choke jobs in MLB history.  They had a 15.5-game lead on the Guardians at one points, including an 11-game lead just within the last couple weeks.  The Tigers have gone 1-9 in their last 10 games overall including six straight home losses to the Guardians and Braves coming in.

The Tigers are hoping Tarik Skubal will be the answer, but they've lost his last two starts as -191 favorites over the Marlins and -206 favorites over the Guardians.  Skubal is getting way too much respect tonight as a big road favorite.

Getting disrespected is Cleveland ace Gavin Williams, who is 11-5 with a 3.06 ERA in 30 starts this season.  Williams has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts while posting a 2.10 ERA in those 11 starts.  Williams owns the Tigers, going 2-2 with a 1.67 ERA in six career starts against them, allowing 6 earned runs in 32 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Tuesday.

20* Lions/Ravens ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51.5

This game has shootout written all over it.  These are two of the best offenses in the NFL that are pretty much both fully healthy heading into this Monday Night Football showdown.  But both defenses leave a lot to be desired, especially with injuries they are both dealing with right now.

The Ravens are averaging 40.5 points per game and 6.9 yards per play offensively after two games against the Bills and Browns.  The Lions are averaging 32.5 points per game and 6.4 yards per play in two games against the Packers and Bears.

The Lions have eight defenders listed as out or on IL.  LB Jack Campbell, CB D.J. Reed and FS Kerby Joseph are all listed as questionable, and htey are without DE Marcus Davenport.  The Ravens will be without DE Nnamdi Madubuike and LB Kyle Van Noy, and Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins are both dealing with groin injuries in the secondary that have them less than 100%.

The Ravens went for 81 combined points with the Bills and 58 with the Browns in their two games this season.  The Lions just went for 73 combined points with the Bears last week.  This total of 51.5 is too short Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Chiefs/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +6.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the luckiest team in the NFL over the past few seasons.  They finally had their string of 17 consecutive wins in on-score games come to an end in Week 1 with a 27-21 loss to the Chargers in Brazil.  Their luck has run out, and that was evident again last week when they lost 20-17 at home to the Eagles.

The Chiefs are 0-2, and the problems they are having aren't quick fixes.  Of course they will be motivated after an 0-2 start, but so will the 0-2 New York Giants, and I think the Chiefs are just getting the benefit of the down with this crazy 6.5-point spread because of their history.  But these aren't he same old Chiefs.

Kansas City is down its two biggest playmakers on offense in Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.  Rookie Jalen Royals is questionable as well.  Patrick Mahomes is just having to improvise to try to get the offense going, running the ball more than he ever has.  But it's just not working, and this offense isn't dynamic enough to be laying big numbers like this on the road.  Travis Kelce looks washed, Juju Smith Schuster is on his last leg, and Hollywood Brown has been a major disappointment.  The offensive line is also struggling in the early going.

The New York Giants showed what they are capable of last week in their 40-37 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.  If this was later in the season that loss would be tough to recover from, but it's still very early and the Giants still have hope.  They will be extra motivated with the Chiefs coming to town.

The Giants had 506 total yards on the Cowboys.  Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards and 3 TD, and Nabers and Robinson went off for 17 receptions for 309 yards and 3 TD to show they are two of the best young weapons in the game.  The Giants are better than they've shown defensively, and this is a step down in class for them against the Chiefs after facing the Commanders and Cowboys.

The Giants have some of the best pass rushers in the game in Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeax.  Teams that give the Chiefs problems are ones that can get pressure without blitzing like the Eagles.  The Giants are capable of the same thing.  They also should get LT Andrew Thomas back for the first time this season to help protect Wilson, and they won't have to face Kansas City DE Mike Danna, who is out for this one.  The Chiefs are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of -5 or more.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cowboys/Bears OVER 48.5

The Cowboys allowed touchdowns to the Eagles on each of their first three drives of the season.  The weather delay slowed the Eagles down.  The Cowboys allowed 37 points and 506 total yards to the Giants last week.  That's the same Giants offense that was held to 6 points by the Commanders in Week 1.  

It was obvious the Cowboys would be a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense this season, and it is coming to fruition.  They traded their best defender in Micah Parsons, and then they paid CB DaRon Bland with the money they saved.  Well, Bland is now out with an injury for a 2nd consecutive week.  And fellow starting CB Trevon Diggs is highly questionable to go in this one.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys scored on each of their first four drives against the Eagles before the delay.  They came back with 40 points and 478 total yards on the Giants last week.  They have an elite offense with Prescott healthy throwing to some of the best weapons he has ever had led by Lamb and Pickens.

The Bears went for an offensive-minded head coach in Ben Johnson.  They now profile as a dead nuts OVER team.  They lost 27-24 to the Vikings in Week 1 for 51 combined points and made JJ McCarthy look like Joe Montana in the 4th quarter.  McCarthy and the Vikings went on to score just 6 points against the Falcons last week.

It was way worse in Week 2 for this Chicago defense.  They lost 52-21 to the Lions for 73 combined points while allowing 511 total yards and 8.8 yards per play.  That's the same Lions offense that was held to 13 points by the Packers in Week 1.

Few defenses have been hit harder by injuries in the early going than the Bears.  They are missing 5 cornerbacks alone!  CB Jaylon Johnson, CB Kyler Gordon, CB Jaylon Jones, CB Terell Smith and CB Zah Frazier are all out.  MLB TJ Edwards is also out, so look for the Cowboys to hang a big number on this soft, banged up defense in a shootout.  Caleb Williams should be able to keep pace as this is a step down in class of opposing defenses after having to face the Lions and Vikings the first two weeks.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Cardinals/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on OVER 43.5

Injuries to Arizona's secondary are a big reason I'm on the OVER in this game.  The Cardinals will be without 5 defensive backs and possibly 6.  They are without CB Will Johnson, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, FS Joey Blount, CB Starling Thomas V and CB Garrett Williams.  CB Max Melton is doubtful.

All of these injuries in the secondary are a big reason the Carolina Panthers were able to come to come back on the Cardinals and nearly pull off the upset last week.  The Panthers came back from 27-3 down and had the ball with a chance to win at the end, losing 27-22 for 49 combined points.

Mac Jones isn't a big downgrade from a hobbled Brock Purdy.  I think this total has been adjusted down too much due to Purdy's absence.  Jones is more of a gun slinger who will make big plays in the passing game, but also some mistakes.  He went 26-of-39 passing for 279 yards and 3 TD in his first start last week in a 26-21 win over the Saints for 47 combined points.  Kyle Shanahan can really get the most out of any QB in his offense.

The 49ers have benefited from playing a very easy schedule of opposing offenses in Sam Darnold and the Seahawks and Spencer Rattler and the Saints.  Even Rattler threw 3 TD passes against them last week.  Now this is a big step up in class for the 49ers against an Arizona defense that should be one of the best in the NFL this season.

Shootouts have been the story in this NFC West rivalry.  In fact, the OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 47 or more combined points in all seven, making for a perfect 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 43.5-point total.  There's a ton of value on the OVER in this game this week.  Bet the OVER Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +108

The Texas Rangers are 5 games out of the wild card with 7 games to go and trailing 3 teams.  Even if they go 7-0 they aren't going to make the playoffs.  They know their season is over, and they are playing like it going 0-6 in their last six games overall.  I don't expect them to show up today, either.

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season going 9-1 in their last 10 games overall.  They are hitting the cover off the ball scoring at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 13 games.  They will continue to play hard to close out the season, and that makes this a great value play on the Marlins as road underdogs to the lifeless Rangers today.

Eury Perez is 12-11 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 37 career starts for the Marlins.  Merrill Kelly has allowed 9 earned runs and 20 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  Kelly allowed 6 runs, 5 earned, in 5 innings of a 9-8 loss to the Marlins in his last start against them on June 27th.  Bet the Marlins Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -119

The Cleveland Guardians are 15-1 in their last 16 games overall and are now tied for the final wild card spot and only one game behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.  They have made me a ton of money during this run and I'm going to continue to ride them because they have the kind of momentum that teams dream about late in the season.

The Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention and they are just ready for this season to be over.  You can tell by their play here down the stretch, going 4-15 in their last 19 games overall.  They were shut out in both games of the double-header yesterday and have now scored a total of 2 runs in three games in this series.

Joey Cantillo has been untouchable in his last five starts with a 1.21 ERA while allowing just 4 earned runs in 29 2/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Simeon Woods-Richardson, who has a 5.27 ERA in his last six starts while allowing 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 27 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Steelers/Patriots OVER 44

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a mess defensively right now.  Through two weeks, they rank dead last in EPA per play when adjusting for turnovers and taking them out.  They are a dead nuts OVER team right now as a result, but we are getting their totals at a discount because of their reputation as a defensive team under Mike Tomlin from previous seasons.

Dating back to last season, the Steelers have now allowed at least 27 points in six of their last seven games overall.  TJ Watt has zero sacks in his last six games and is a shell of his former self.  They have been gashed by two of the worst offenses in the NFL this season.  They gave up 32 points and 384 total yards to the Jets in Week 1.  That's looks way worse now after Fields and the Jets were shut down by the Bills last week and held to 10 points.  They allowed 31 points and 395 total yards to the Sam Darnold and the Seahawks last week.  The Seahawks were held to 13 points at home by the 49ers the previous week.

The injury situation is really bad for the Steelers.  They are without four starters on defense in CB Joey Porter Jr., SS DeShon Elliott, LB Alex Highsmith and DE Isaiahh Loudermilk.  DE Derrick Harmon is questionable as well.  This is clearly one of the worst defenses in the NFL in its current state.  But the Steelers do have some offensive punch now with QB Aaron Rodgers and WR DK Metcalf that they have been missing.  They scored 34 points and combined for 66 points with the Jets before combining for 48 points with the Seahawks last week.

The Patriots are coming off a shootout of their own in a 33-27 road win at Miami for 60 combined points.  I think their offense is ahead of their defense at this point.  Drake Maye went 19-of-23 for 230 yards and 2 TD against the Dolphins.  The defense is allowing 373.5 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play thus far to the Dolphins and Raiders.  They are also without top CB Christian Gonzalez again this week.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Texans/Jaguars OVER 43.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and a suspect defense.  They got one of the best head coaching hires of the offseason in Liam Coen, who was behind Baker Mayfield's career season in Tampa Bay last year.  He's already working wonders with Trevor Lawrence, who has been even better than the numbers would show due to drops by his receivers.

The Jaguars are scoring 26.5 points per game, putting up 389 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense with upgrades at receiver to go alongisde Brian Thomas with Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown.  Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten are a great 1-2 punch in the backfield, and Lawrence has the best offensive line he's ever had in Jacksonville.

The Jaguars blew a 17-10 halftime lead last week and lost to the Bengals, 31-27.  This was even after Joe Burrow went out for the Bengals, allowing Jake Browning to look like Joe Montana against them in the 2H.  Browning threw for 241 yards and accounted for 3 touchdowns against this Jacksonville defense.

I think Houston can finally get its offense going this week.  The Texans have faced two tough defenses in the Rams and Bucs thus far, and this is a step down in class for them.  Reinforcements are on the way as both Christian Kirk and Braxton Berrios are expected to make their season debuts for the Texans at receiver.  This might be the deepest receiver room in the NFL, and it should come to life this week.

The Texans and Jaguars have combined for at least 43 points in four consecutive meetings, and 43 or more in eight of their last 10 meetings as well.  This total of 43.5 is very low for a game involving the Jaguars.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -3

The Atlanta Falcons would be 2-0 if they had the same kicker for both games.  Koo cost them the game against the Bucs in Week 1, and after getting cut his backup Parker Romo made all 5 of his field goal attempts in a 22-6 road win over the Vikings last week.  Romo earned a new contract with his performance, and the Falcons are happy they got that problem shored up quickly because this is a team with very few weaknesses now.

The biggest upgrade was the pass rush this offseason and that came up big sacking the Vikings 6 times.  They held the Vikings to 198 total yards, and this is a legit defense now.  The Falcons have elite numbers averaging 342 yards per game and allowing just 229 yards per game, outgaining opponents by 113 yards per game.  The offense is loaded with playmakers, one of the best young QB's in the game in Michael Pennix Jr, and now the defense is as good as it has been in Atlanta in a long time.

The Carolina Panthers have no shot of keeping this game close with all the injuries they are dealing with.  After losing 26-10 at Jacksonville in Week 1, the Panthers trailed the Cardinals 27-3 last week.  That was before the Cardinals suffered a ton of injuries in their secondary and were playing with all backups when the Panthers came back and made it a game in the 2H.  That won't happen against the Falcons this week.

The Panthers are averaging 4.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.6 yards per play.  That's even with counting all the garbage yards they accumulated against the Cardinals last week.

The Panthers are without two starting offensive linemen in RG Robert Hunt and C Austin Corbett.  They are without WR Jalen Coker, and fellow WR Xavier Legette is questionable.  Defensively, they are without LB Patrick Jones II and DT Tershawn Wharton.  This is one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and QB Bryce Young doesn't have much of a chance behind this makeshift offensive line and limited playmakers.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +8.5

Since 2010, winless (0-2) teams are 59-35-3 (62.8%) ATS vs. a team with at least one win in Week 3.  This trend makes sends because teams that start 0-2 are undervalued, while teams like the Packers that start 2-0 are overvalued.  The Packers should not be favored by more than a TD on the road against the Browns this week.

No question the Packers are one of the better teams in the NFL.  They beat the Lions 27-13 in Week 1 and the Commanders 27-18 in Week 2.  But both of those wins came at home, and now the Packers will be hitting the road for the first time this week.

The Cleveland Browns have played a brutal schedule and could easily be 1-1 instead of 0-2 if they made kicks.  They held the Bengals to 7 total yards in the 2H in their 17-16 loss in Week 1.  They held the Ravens to 242 total yards last week in their 41-17 defeat, which will prove to be one of the most misleading finals of the year.

The Browns actually rank 1st in the NFL allowing 191.5 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play this season.  When you consider they faced two Top 5 QB's in Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, that makes those numbers even more impressive.  They legitimately have one of the best defenses in the NFL, which is what I want in an underdog catching this many points.  They have outgained the Bengals and Ravens by an average of 133 yards per game despite losing both games.  Talk about misleading.

While the Browns are almost fully healthy heading into this one, the Packers have a ton of injury concerns.  Jordan Love's favorite security blanket in Jayden Reed was just placed on IR.  TE Tucker Kraft who is off to a monster start this season suffered a knee injury in practice and won't be 100% if he plays.  The Packers may find a way to win this game, but it will be a much bigger fight than they bargained for in the Dawg Pound just like it was for the Bengals in Week 1.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +7

Since 2010, winless (0-2) teams are 59-35-3 (62.8%) ATS vs. a team with at least one win in Week 3.  The Tampa Bay Bucs are overvalued after a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They easily could have lost both games as they needed some Baker Mayfield magic for a couple game-winning drives in the final seconds to beat the Falcons 23-20 and the Texans 20-19.

Now the Bucs are fat and happy after their 2-0 start.  We saw this same thing play out last year with the Bucs opening 2-0 and beating the Lions in Week 2 before falling flat on their faces in a 26-7 home loss to Denver as 6-point favorites in Week 3.  I can easily see history repeating itself here.

The Bucs are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.  They have a ton of injuries they are dealing with right now that doesn't warrant them being 7-point favorites.  They will be without 3 starting offensive linemen in LT Tristan Wirfs, RT Luke Goedeke and RG Cody Mauch.  That makes this short week even tougher on the Bucs trying to find some chemistry in this makeshift offensive line that is dealing with cluster injuries.

The Bucs also remain without starting WR Chris Godwin, and now star rookie WR Emeka Egbuka has popped up on the injury report this week and is questionable.  Baker Mayfield appeared to sprain his ankle on that game-winning drive against the Texans last week, and he won't be 100%.  The Bucs also lost their best pass rusher in Calijah Kancey to an injury last week and now he's on IR.

Tyrod Taylor may actually be an upgrade over Justin Fields.  At least Taylor will take care of the football and is more of a threat as a passer than Fields is.  That's what you want in an underdog.  Taylor is actually 34-24 ATS in his career, including 7-3 ATS in his last 10 starts as an underdog of 7 points or more.  He is one of the better backup QB's in the league and could give the Jets just the spark they need after a tough 0-2 start.

If you just looked at the numbers of these two teams through three weeks you wouldn't know which one is 2-0, and which one is 0-2.  The Jets are only getting outgained 5.3 to 5.6 yards per play, or by 0.3 yards per play.  The Bucs are actually getting outgained 5.0 to 5.5 yards per play, or by 0.5 yards per play.  And you could argue the Jets played the tougher schedule in the Bills and Steelers, while the Bucs beat the Texans and Falcons.  This is a game the Jets could easily win outright.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New England Patriots +2

Note: I love a 6-point teaser with the Patriots +7.5/+8 and the Seahawks -1/-1.5 this week!

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a mess defensively right now.  Through two weeks, they rank dead last in EPA per play when adjusting for turnovers and taking them out.  Dating back to last season, the Steelers have now allowed at least 27 points in six of their last seven games overall.  TJ Watt has zero sacks in his last six games and is a shell of his former self.  They have been gashed by two of the worst offenses in the NFL this season.  

They gave up 32 points and 384 total yards to the Jets in Week 1.  That's looks way worse now after Fields and the Jets were shut down by the Bills last week and held to 10 points.  They allowed 31 points and 395 total yards to the Sam Darnold and the Seahawks last week.  The Seahawks were held to 13 points at home by the 49ers the previous week.

The injury situation is really bad for the Steelers.  They are without four starters on defense in CB Joey Porter Jr., SS DeShon Elliott, LB Alex Highsmith and DE Isaiahh Loudermilk.  DE Derrick Harmon is questionable as well.  This is clearly one of the worst defenses in the NFL in its current state.

Aaron Rodgers is getting a lot of hype for throwing 4 TD's against the Jets, but the Jets have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season.  He was held in check by a much more capable Seahawks defense last week in a 31-17 home loss.  And the numbers are just atrocious for the Steelers overall.  They are averaging 269 yards per game and 5.1 per play on offense and allowing 394.5 yards per game and 6.4 per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 125.5 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play against two mediocre to bad teams in the Jets and Seahawks.

The Patriots bounced back nicely from a 20-13 home loss to the Raiders in Week 1 with a 33-27 road win at Miami in Week 2.  They have their franchise QB in Drake Maye, who went 19-of-23 passing for 220 yards and 2 TD against the Dolphins last week.  Mike Vrabel was the perfect hire for them to get the most out of this young team.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -18

The USC Trojans went 7-6 last season with five of their losses coming by 1, 3, 3, 5 and 7 points.  That's how close they were to being a 12-1 team.  Now Lincoln Riley returns 16 starters and one of the most experienced teams in the country.  The Trojans are flying under the radar this season as a sleeper to win the Big Ten.

The Trojans are off and running blasting Missouri State 73-13 as 35.5-point favorites in Week 1, cruising to a 59-20 win as 29-point favorites over Georgia Southern in Week 2, and winning 33-17 at Purdue as 20.5-point favorites in their Big Ten opener on the road in Week 3.  Now the Trojans get to play their conference home opener against Michigan State Saturday night, and I expect it to be a blowout win in their favor.

Jordan Maiava finished strong last season and is off to a great start this season and a sleeper to win the Heisman Trophy.  Maiava is completing 68.6% of his passes for 989 yards and 6 TD, while also rushing for a pair of scores on the ground.  USC has the top numbers in the country offensively scoring 55.0 points per game, averaging 604.3 yards per game and 9.7 yards per play.

Lincoln Riley has this offense humming per usual, while former UCLA defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn has made a huge impact.  The Trojans have one of the most improved defenses in the country under Lynn's guidance.  They allow 16.7 points per game, 317.7 yards per game and 4.7 per play.  They are outgaining opponents by a whopping 5.0 yards per play, which is the best mark in the country.

This is equally a fade of Michigan State due to all their injuries right now.  They have cluster injuries at receiver and at the skill positions in general.  The Spartans are 0-3 ATS this season.  They beat Western Michigan 23-6, the same WMU team that just lost 38-0 to Illinois last week.  They beat Boston College 42-40 (OT) at home, the same Boston College team that just got upset at Stanford as double-digits favorites last week.  And their 41-24 win over Youngstown State as 24-point favorites last week was pretty lackluster.

The spot is a terrible one for the Spartans.  They have to travel clear out West for a 11:00 PM EST start time and will be a tired team by the 2H not only trying to tame this USC offense, but also with the fact that they aren't used to playing games this late.  This game will finish around 2:30 AM EST.  

We've seen several teams from the midwest and the East struggle in the 2H of these late-night games already this season.  Minnesota lost outright at Cal, Georgia Southern lost 42-14 as favorites at Fresno State, and Boston College was upset as a double-digit favorite at Stanford.  The Spartans will suffer the same fate of those three teams as the Trojans continue to pour it on in the 2H and pull away for a comfortable win and cover.  Bet USC Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor ML -125

Baylor is loaded this season with 18 returning starters including QB Sawyer Robinson, one of the best QB's in the country.  The Bears went 6-0 in their final six games last season before losing to LSU in the bowl game, so their only two losses in their last nine games are to SEC teams.  And that loss to Auburn was very misleading, as was the loss to LSU.  They outgained LSU 507 to 427.

Baylor also outgained Auburn 483 to 415 for the game and 6.7 to 6.0 yards per play.  The difference was Auburn had a KO return TD, and Baylor was stopped on downs twice inside the 10-yard line.  Baylor bounced back from that loss to Auburn with a 48-45 (OT) road win at SMU, which was a 12-team playoff participant last season.  The Bears outgained the Mustangs 601 to 458, or by 143 total yards.

Speaking of 12-team playoff participants.  Arizona State is one of the most overrated teams in the country after a dream season last year that saw them win the Big 12 Championship and give Texas all they could handle in the 12-team playoff.  The Sun Devils pulled off the miracle, finishing 1st after being picked to finish last in the Big 12.  Now I think they will regress and finish middle of the pack this season.

While the Sun Devils return 17 starters and will be good again, they lose their heart and soul in RB Cam Skattebo, who put the team on his shoulders all season last year.  Skattebo rushed for 1,711 yards and 21 TD, while also catching 45 balls for 605 yards and three scores.  He made life much easier on QB Sam Leavitt, who will have to shoulder much more of the load this season and I don't think he's ready for it.

The Sun Devils got off to an underwhelming start beating FCS Northern Arizona 38-19 as 29.5-point favorites and not even coming close to covering the spread.  They only had one more first down than Northern Arizona and only outgained them by 129 yards.

I released my 25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +7 against Arizona State two weeks ago.  The Bulldogs jumped out to a 17-0 lead and pulled off the outright upset, 24-21.  That was a 2-10 Mississippi State team last season.  The Bulldogs outgained the Sun Devils 5.4 to 4.5 yards per play.

I faded Arizona State again last week and came up just agonizingly short.  The Sun Devils covered by 0.5 points beating Texas State 34-15 as 18.5-point home favorites only after the Bobcats failed on a pair of 2-point conversion attempts instead of kicking the XP.  The Sun Devils were underwhelming again, only outgaining the Bobcats by 130 total yards and the first downs were even at 21 apiece.

I'm going back to the well here and taking Baylor ML -125 as my 25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR.  I'm very high on Baylor this season and very low on Arizona State.  This will be a great atmosphere for a night game at 7:30 EST on FOX in Waco for the Bears' Big 12 opener.  They are the better team, and their home-field advantage at night isn't being factored in enough to the line.

Baylor can stack the box to stop the run because ASU has no receivers outside Tyson that are a threat.  They can bracket coverage his way as well.  The key here is Baylor is going to score at will taking advantage of Arizona State's weak secondary.  Robertson has already thrown for 1,070 yards and 10 TD in three games and he is a Heisman Trophy sleeper.  He is not only the best QB in the Big 12, but one of the best in the country in my opinion.  I trust him and the Bears to get the job done tonight.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians +106 (Game 2)

The Cleveland Guardians are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the hapless Kansas City Royals today.

The Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention and they are just ready for this season to be over.  You can tell by their play here down the stretch, going 4-13 in their last 17 games overall.  Which team is going to be more motivated to play a Saturday double-header? It's clearly the Guardians.

The Guardians have the 4th-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.47 ERA on the season.  The Twins have the 5th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.70 ERA on the season, and they have been even worse since the All-Star Break.  The Guardians are better equipped to handle a double-header with the better bullpen.

Logan Allen has owned the Twins, going 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in four career starts against them.  Bailey Ober is 5-8 with a 5.12 ERA in 25 starts this season.  Ober allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings in his last start against Cleveland on August 2nd.  Bet the Guardians in Game 2 Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox +150

The San Diego Padres have nothing to play for down the stretch and are playing like it.  The Padres are pretty much locked in to the No. 5 seed in the National League.  They are 5 games clear in the wild card, and 4 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games coming in and are really struggling at the plate, scoring 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last 10 games overall.

Yu Darvish is working is way back from injury for the Padres and it has not gone well for him.  He has allowed 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 6.75 ERA during this stretch.

Yoendrys Gomez has held his own as a starter for the White Sox this season, going 2-1 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in seven starts with 36 K's in 33 2/3 innings.  I expect him to hold this struggling San Diego lineup in check tonight.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +141

The Texas Rangers are 5 games out of the wild card with 8 games to go and trailing 3 teams.  Even if they go 8-0 they aren't going to make the playoffs.  They know their season is over, and they are playing like it going 0-5 in their last five games overall.  I don't expect them to show up today, either.

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season going 8-1 in their last nine games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in all eight wins.  They will continue to play hard to close out the season, and that makes this a great value play on the Marlins as big road underdogs to the lifeless Rangers tonight.

Adam Mazur is coming off one of his best starts of the the season pitching 6 innings without allowing an earned run to the Tigers.  Jack Leiter is 9-9 with a 3.82 ERA in 27 starts for the Rangers in his first full season as a starting and is starting to wear down here down the stretch.  Bet the Marlins Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tulane +12

Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is one of the most underrated in the country.  He led Troy to a 23-4 record in two seasons there, and he went 9-5 in his first season at Tulane and had the Green Wave in the AAC Championship Game.  He has 14 starters back from that team and added in one of the best transfer QB's in the country in Jake Retzlaff from BYU.

Tulane beat Northwestern 23-3 as 4.5-point favorites in Week 1, beat South Alabama 33-31 as 13.5-point road favorites in Week 2, and topped Duke 34-27 as 1.5-point favorites last week.  Retzlaff is hitting on all cylinders already throwing for 522 yards and 2 TD, while rushing for 288 yards and 6 scores as a great dual-threat.  The Green Wave have 12-team playoff aspirations, and an upset win at Ole Miss would look real good on their resume.

While Tulane will be max motivated for a 3rd win over a Power 4 team this season, Ole Miss is in the ultimate flat spot.  The Rebels are coming off consecutive narrow SEC wins by 7 at Kentucky and by 6 at home against Arkansas, and they have an even bigger game on deck next week against LSU that has huge SEC title implications.  This is the game they let down, and that isn't being factored into the line enough.

Ole Miss should have been a playoff team last season.  But the Rebels are nowhwere near as talented or as experienced as that team.  The loss of QB Jaxson Dart and all of their top playmakers is huge on offense, but the bigger losses are on defense where only one starter returns and they lose 11 of their top 13 tacklers.  What was one of the best defenses in the country last season is now one of the worst in the SEC.

Ole Miss allowed 23 points and 359 yards to a Kentucky offense that is one of the worst in the SEC.  The Wildcats also slowed the game down and milked the clock on every snap in their 30-23 home loss to Ole Miss.  The Rebels beat Arkansas 41-35 at home last week, but they probably didn't deserve to win as they allowed 526 total yards to the Razorbacks and were outgained by 45 total yards.

Lane Kiffin has a QB problem on his hands, too.  Trinidad Chambliss looked good against Arkansas last week, but it appears Kiffin is going back to sophomore Austin Simmons who didn't start due to an ankle injury, but then came in after Chambliss got injured.  He re-aggravated the ankle injury and was noticeably limping.  Simmons won't be nearly as mobile if he does get the call, which will limit the offense's potential.  Retzlaff and this Tulane offense are capable of matching Ole Miss score for score just like Arkansas did.  Bet Tulane Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Guardians +109 (Game 1)

The Cleveland Guardians are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the hapless Kansas City Royals today.

The Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention and they are just ready for this season to be over.  You can tell by their play here down the stretch, going 4-13 in their last 17 games overall.  Which team is going to be more motivated to play a Saturday double-header? It's clearly the Guardians.

Slade Ceconni has come up clutch here down the stretch allowing just 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 13 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  This will be his first career start against the Twins, so he has the element of surprise working in his favor.  The Guardians have the 4th-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.47 ERA on the season.

Joe Ryan has been rocked for a 7.36 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 18 earned runs in 22 innings.  The Guardians are 5-0 in their last five games against Ryan.  The Twins have the 5th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.70 ERA on the season, and they have been even worse since the All-Star Break.  Bet the Guardians in Game 1 Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on UAB +40

This is the ultimate letdown spot for Tennessee.  The Vols had Georgia by the balls last week and let them off the hook.  They allowed the game-tying TD and 2-point conversion in the final minutes, then missed a 43-yard FG for the win at the buzzer.  They went on to lose 44-41 in OT.

I expect Tennessee to be flat as a pancake this week against UAB.  Teams coming off a loss to a Top 15 team when favored by 30 points more more the next week have covered the spread just 29% of the time the last 30 years!  And that wasn't just a Top 15 loss, it was a loss to a rival that had had their number for years.

UAB has the offensive firepower to stay within this inflated number.  UAB's offense took off once Jalen Kitna took over at QB for Jacob Zeno after a 41-18 loss to Navy last year.  The Blazers averaged 33.4 points per game over their final five games last season.  Kitna completed 62% of his passes for 2,209 yards and a 17-to-11 TD/INT ratio in eight starts last season.

The Blazers are averaging 35.7 points per game, 454.7 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play this season.  Kitna is completing 70% of his passes for 892 yards and 6 TD in three games.  Jevon Jackson has rushed for 277 yards and 6.0 per carry.  Millner and Hooks have combined for 33 receptions, 497 yards and 5 TD receiving.

Tennessee has a lot of injuries on defense right now missing three starters in NG Jaxson Moi, CB Rickey Gibson II and CB Jermod McCoy.  That explains why they gave up 26 points and 377 yards to Syracuse and 44 points and 503 yards to Georgia.  UAB will be able to keep coming and scoring against this overrated Tennessee defense.  Bet UAB Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UAB/Tennessee OVER 68.5

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers allowed 34.3 points per game last season.  They return just four starters on D and lose nine of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago.  They are going to be forced to try and win shootouts again this season, and that was on display in Week 1.

UAB beat Alabama State 52-42 as 21-point favorites with a total of just 53.5.  They sailed over that total by 40.5 points finishing with 94 combined points.  They gained 520 yards and 9.0 yards per play while allowing 514 yards and 7.9 per play.

UAB's offense took off once Jalen Kitna took over at QB for Jacob Zeno after a 41-18 loss to Navy.  The Blazers averaged 33.4 points per game over their final five games last season.  Kitna completed 62% of his passes for 2,209 yards and a 17-to-11 TD/INT ratio in eight starts last season.  He went 18-of-23 passing for 247 yards and 2 TD against Alabama State and is now comfortable in Trent Dilfer's system.

Two weeks ago, UAB lost 38-24 at Navy finishing with 62 combined points and going OVER the 59-point closing total.  That's a Navy team that likes to slow the game down too, so to get to 62 with Navy was impressive.   Kitna threw for 304 yards and 2 TD with 2 INT in the loss.   They allowed 463 total yards to the Midshipmen.

Last week, UAB beat Akron 31-28 for 59 combined points finishing over the closing total of 58.5.  Keep in mind Akron was shut out in its previous two games and then hung 28 points and 441 total yards on this UAB defense, which is terrible again this season allowing 36 points per game, 472.7 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play thus far against suspect competition.

Offensively, the Blazers are averaging 35.7 points per game, 454.7 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play this season.  Kitna is completing 70% of his passes for 892 yards and 6 TD in three games.  Jevon Jackson has rushed for 277 yards and 6.0 per carry.  Millner and Hooks have combined for 33 receptions, 497 yards and 5 TD receiving.

Tennessee has a lot of injuries on defense right now missing three starters in NG Jaxson Moi, CB Rickey Gibson II and CB Jermod McCoy.  That explains why they gave up 26 points and 377 yards to Syracuse and 44 points and 503 yards to Georgia.  UAB will be able to keep coming and scoring against this overrated Tennessee defense.  

The Vols do have an electric offensive this season with a big upgrade at QB in Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar.  They are averaging 52.7 points per game, 568.7 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play.  They play at the 3rd-fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 20.3 seconds.  UAB also plays fast ranking 41st at 24.9 seconds per snap.  This feels like a 55-28 win for the Vols sailing OVER this 68.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Syracuse/Clemson OVER 55

Syracuse is a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Fran Brown.  Syracuse and its opponents combined for 55 or more points in 10 of 13 games last season.  That was with Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord at QB after everyone left him for dead, and now Brown is working his magic again with Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli this season.

Angeli leads a Syracuse offense that is putting up 39.7 points per game, 486.7 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play despite playing a pretty tough schedule that has included Tennessee and UConn.  He is completing 64% of his passes for 1,108 yards with 8 TD in three games thus far.  Syracuse is playing at the 5th-fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 20.9 seconds.

That leaves their soft defense a little exposed.  The Orange are allowing 29.7 points per game, 443 yard per game and 5.8 yards per play this season.  They will have a hard time getting stops consistently just as they did a year ago when they allowed 29.2 points per game.

Clemson is due for an offensive breakout to say the least.  The Tigers have played a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in LSU, Georgia Tech and Troy.  I would argue this Syracuse defense is worse than all three and it's not really close.  Cade Klubnik has been without LT Tristan Leigh and star WR Antonio Williams this season, but both are expected to make their debuts against Syracuse this week.

The books have set this total too low due to Clemson going under the total in three straight to start the season.  We'll take advantage and 'buy low' on a Clemson over here as they should get their offense cooking this week with Leigh and Williams back, and I think Syracuse can match them score for score in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Utah FOX No-Brainer on Utah -3

Texas Tech received a lot of hype in the offseason with how much money they spent in the transfer portal.  While there's no question they upgraded their talent, I think the hype is too much after three blowouts against the softest schedule on the country.  The Red Raiders have played the 254th-ranked schedule of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State.

Utah did not get the hype that Texas Tech did this offseason, but they were the team deserving of it.  The Utes were picked by the majority to win the Big 12 last season.  They disappointed going 5-7, but they never had a QB as Cameron Rising couldn't stay healthy and derailed their season.

Now the Utes have one of their best QB's in program history in New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier, who threw for 2,768 yards and rushed for 1,166 yards and 19 TD last year for the Lobos.  Dampier is among 17 starters back for the Utes this season.

Utah has been dominant against a much tougher schedule than that of Texas Tech.  The Utes beat UCLA 43-10 as 6.5-point road favorites, beat Cal Poly 63-9 as 42.5-point home favorites and topped Wyoming 31-6 as 24-point road favorites.  Utah is averaging 517.3 yards per game and 6.5 per play on offense and allowing 224.3 yards per game and 4.1 per play on defense.

Dampier is a dark horse to win the Heisman Trophy this season.  He has thrown for 628 yards and 7 TD while also rushing for 198 yards and a score in three games despite the blowout nature of all three games.  The Utes have more ways to beat you offensively, and they have the better defense in this matchup.  They are better at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Texas Tech is a pass-happy offense that will struggle to run the football at times this season, and being one-dimensional isn't going to work.  The Red Raiders managed just 71 rushing yards on 38 carries against Oregon State last week, averaging just 1.9 yards per carry.  I expect this Utah defense to force a couple mistakes from Behren Morton and that to be a big difference in the game.  This is the ultimate step up in class on the road in a hostile environment for the Red Raiders, and I expect them to fall on their faces.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -7

Memphis is overvalued after a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season against the 134th-ranked schedule in the country.  They beat FCS Chattanooga 45-10 as 30.5-point favorites.  That's the same Chattanooga team that went on to lose 45-17 to Tennessee Tech.

Memphis beat Georgia Tech 38-16 as 14.5-point road favorites in Week 2.  That's the same Georgia State team that lost 63-7 to Ole Miss, which is the same Ole Miss team that Arkansas nearly upset on the road last week.  And they beat Troy 28-7, which lost starting QB Goose Crowder on the opening drive to injury, and the drop off to the backup was enormous.  Kilcrease finished 10-of-29 for 65 yards and an INT in Crowder's place.

I can't say I'm 100% sure how good Memphis is, but I can say 100% sure they aren't as good as their record and margins of victory would indicate due to the circumstances and softness of their schedule.  I don't like Nevada transfer QB Brendon Lewis, who is a better runner than he is a thrower, which isn't what this Memphis offense is known for.  They are known for having great pocket passers through the years.

This might be Ryan Silverfield's worst team since going 7-6 in 2022.  They only brought back 9 starters this season and lost 14 of their top 15 tacklers on D, each of their top 4 receivers, and leading rusher Mario Anderson who has 1,362 yards and 18 TD last season.  Silverfield had to hit the transfer portal, and I'm just not high on all the replacements.

Arkansas has been impressive beating Alabama A&M 52-7 and Arkansas State 56-14, which is the same Arkansas State team that just took Iowa State to the wire last week.  The Razorbacks had Ole Miss on the ropes last week in a 41-35 road loss, and they outgained the Rebels 526 to 481 for the game.

The Razorbacks boast an explosive offense under 2nd-year coordinator Bobby Petrino, and I just don't think Memphis has the firepower to keep up.  QB Taylen Green is completing 68.5% of his passes for 866 yards and 11 TD, while also rushing for 307 yards and 2 TD making him one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  He will have a field day against this Memphis defense and Saturday to lead the Razorbacks to a win by more than a TD.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Syracuse +17.5

The books have Clemson power rated too highly after the Tigers came into the season as one of the top ranked teams in the country.  Even after a lackluster 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS start this season, the Tigers are still too big of favorites against Syracuse this week.

Clemson lost 17-10 outright as 5-point home favorites to LSU in Week 1.  They were held to 261 total yards and outgained by 93 yards.  They only beat Troy 27-16 at home as 30-point favorites and only outgained the Trojans by 15 yards.  And last week they lost 24-21 as 3-point favorites at Georgia Tech.  Their offense has been broken, and their defense isn't as good as it was expected to be.

Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli leads a Syracuse offense that is putting up 39.7 points per game, 486.7 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play despite playing a pretty tough schedule that has included Tennessee and UConn.  He is completing 64% of his passes for 1,108 yards with 8 TD in three games thus far.  Syracuse is playing at the 5th-fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 20.9 seconds.

The 19-point loss to Tennessee in the opener doesn't look too bad now when you consider Tennessee should have beaten Georgia last week.  I have Tennessee power-rated a lot higher than Clemson right now.  They responded with a 27-20 wi over UConn and a 66-24 beat down of Colgate.  They should still be fresh for this game against Clemson after that blowout of Colgate last week.

I like Syracuse head coach Fran Brown.  He guided Syracuse to a 10-3 season in his first year on the job last year.  He is doing a tremendous job of recruiting and getting the most out of his players.  I trust that he'll have the answer for Clemson, and least the offense should be able to match the Tigers score for score in this one to stay within the 17.5-point spread.  Speaking of that spread, Brown referred to it in the media and will have his players motivated knowing they are this big of underdogs.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -118

The Arizona Diamondbacks are just 2 games back of the New York Mets for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They have a lot to play for here down the stretch, while the Philadelphia Phillies have every reason to just go through the motions and not care.

The Phillies have already clinched the NL East, and they are 5.5 games ahead of the Dodgers for the 2nd seed in the National League with 9 games to go.  They are basically locked into the No. 2 seed, which is big because the top 2 seeds get a bye into the divisional round.  They really have nothing to play for.

It looks like it's going to be Taijuan Walker for the Phillies, but I'm OK with this bet if it's Walker Buehler because both are gas cans.  Walker has allowed 4 earned runs or more in four consecutive starts.  Buehler is 8-7 with a 5.29 ERA in 23 starts.

I'll gladly back Ryne Nelson, who has been dominant at home this season for the Diamondbacks.  Nelson is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 10 starts and six relief appearances at home this season.  Nelson has a 2.40 ERA in his last five starts while allowing a total of 8 earned runs in 30 innings.  He held the Phillies to 2 earned runs and 4 base runners with 9 K's in 7 1/3 innings in his last start against them.  Bet the Diamondbacks Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians +111

The Cleveland Guardians are 12-1 in their last 13 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the hapless Kansas City Royals today.

The Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention and they are just ready for this season to be over.  You can tell by their play here down the stretch, going 4-12 in their last 16 games overall.

Parker Messick has come up clutch for the Guardians down the stretch.  He is 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA in five starts this season.  This will be his first start against the Twins, and he will have the element of surprise working in his favor.

Pablo Lopez is working his way back from injury for the Twins and will be on a pitch count as they don't want to push him too hard here down the stretch.  Lopez is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in three career home starts against Cleveland, allowing 12 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

20* Iowa/Rutgers Big Ten No-Brainer on OVER 45

Rutgers has turned into a dead nuts OVER team.  The Scarlet Knights are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 45 or more combined points in all 11 games, making for a 10-0-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 45-point total.  They are combining with their opponents to average a whopping 64.1 points per game in those 11 games with 55 or more combined points in nine of them.  Simply put, this total of 45 is too low for a game involving Rutgers right now.

The Scarlet Knights have now scored at least 31 points in seven consecutive games dating back to last season.  That includes games against quality defenses in Kansas State, Michigan State and Illinois.  They went for 65 combined points with Ohio in a 34-31 win, 62 with Miami Ohio in a 45-17 win and 70 with Norfolk State in a 60-10 win to open this season.

The Sacarlet Knights are averaging 46.3 points per game, 461 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play thus far this season.  They have one of their best QB's in program history in Athan Kaliakmanis, who is completing 72.9% of his passes averaging 9.6 per attempt with a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  The talent at the receiver position is elite too with Duff, Strong and Sheffield all having over 200 yards receiving each through three games.

But Rutgers is no longer an elite defensive team under Greg Schiano.  Despite the soft schedule, the Scarlet Knights are allowing 6.6 yards per play this season.  Ohio went up and down the field on them finishing with 440 total yards and easily could have pulled off the upset.

Iowa is trying to get more dynamic on offense this season.  The Hawkeyes finally have a QB upgrade in South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski, who threw for over 10,000 yards in his 55 starts for the Jack Rabbits.  It was going to take him some time to gel with his new teammates in a new system, but I think this is his breakout game after opening things up in a 47-7 win over UMass last week.

Iowa's defense really hasn't been tested yet.  Albany and UMass offered little, and Iowa State vs. Iowa is always a low-scoring rivalry game with how familiar these teams are with one another.  I think this Rutgers offense is the best that Iowa has faced this season and that will show.  But I think Gronowki and company can keep up in a shootout, which we don't need much of one with a total of just 45 points.  The atmosphere for this Friday night game will be a good one for offense, too, and the forecast looks perfect for a shootout with no wind and temps in the 70's.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Dolphins/Bills AFC East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 49.5

This game has points and OVER written all over it.  Both offenses are way ahead of the defenses for both teams largely due to injuries.  I expect the Bills and Dolphins to play in a shootout tonight as a result.

The Dolphins are without 5 cornerbacks and starting safety Ifeatu Melifonwu.  That includes starting CB Storm Duck.  It's no surprise the Dolphins have allowed 33 points to the Colts and 33 points to the Patriots in their first two games.  The Bills will go for 33-plus in this one as well.

While the Bills are thriving on offense because they are fully healthy, scoring 41 points against the Ravens and 30 points against the Jets, their defense is far from Super Bowl caliber.  They allowed 40 points and 432 total yards to the Ravens.

Last week, the Bills knocked Justin Fields out of the game with a concussion, and the Jets were lost on offense.  They play a much more competent offense in the Dolphins this week that will exploit all their holes.  The Bills are without DT Ed Oliver and LB Matt Milano, and Oliver's top two backups are both out as well.  Milano's backup Shaq Thompson is questionable, and NB Taron Johnson is questionable with a plethora of injuries in the secondary.

The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings between the Dolphins and Bills with 57 or more combined points in four of those six meetings.  The Bills have scored at least 30 points in five of their last six meetings with the Dolphins, and I have no doubt they will top that number again and the Dolphins will get enough points to sail OVER this 49.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -111

The Seattle Mariners have a lot to pay for right now.  They are 0.5 games behind he Houston Astros for 1st place in the AL West.  The Mariners have come up absolutely clutch here down the stretch going 10-1 in their last 11 games overall to put themselves in this position.  

The Royals are 7 games out of the wild card with 10 games left and dead in the water.  They are playing like it going 3-7 in their last 10 games overall.

Luis Castillo is 9-8 with a 3.76 ERA in 30 starts for the Mariners this season.  He'll be opposed by Stephen Kolek, who is 2-3 with a 6.55 ERA in six home starts this season, allowing 24 earned runs in 33 innings.  Kolek allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings in his last start against Seattle this season.  Bet the Mariners Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +204

The Cleveland Guardians are 11-1 in their last 12 games overall to pull within 2.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as big underdogs to the Detroit Tigers today.

The Tigers are basically stuck where they're at as they are going to win the AL Central, but they are 4 games behind the Blue Jays and 1.5 games ahead of the Astros for the 2nd seed in the American League.  Basically, they are playing with zero sense of urgency right now, which is evidenced by going 7-14 in their last 21 games overall.

Tarik Skubal got injured in his last start and it's a big reason it was one of his worst starts of the season, allowing 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 3 1/3 innings of a 8-2 loss to the lowly Marlins.  I don't expect him to be 100% today, and I think he is overvalued as a result.

Tanner Bibee is bringing his best stuff here down the stretch allowing just 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 15 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  Bibee has owned the Tigers, allowing just 2 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Dodgers on OVER 7.5

The Phillies are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all eight games.  This total of 7.5 is way too low for a game involving the Phillies right now.  They have scored at least 6 runs in seven of their last eight games overall.  The Dodgers are also raking scoring 5 runs or more in six of their last seven games overall.

Jesus Luzardo has a 4.03 ERA in 30 starts this season and is a weak link in this Philadelphia rotation.  Blake Snell gets too much respect from the books.  He is 1-3 with a 4.73 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Seattle Mariners +106

The Seattle Mariners have a lot to pay for right now.  They are 0.5 games ahead of the Houston Astros for 1st place in the AL West.  The Mariners have come up absolutely clutch here down the stretch going 10-0 in their last 10 games overall to put themselves in this position.

I expect them to make it 11 in a row today against a dead Royals team that is 7 games out of the wild card and just ready for the season to be over at this point.  The Royals are 2-7 in their last nine games overall.

The Mariners are 4-0 in Bryce Millers last four starts.  He has allowed 8 earned runs in 17 innings with 17 K's in his last three starts.  But this is more of a fade of Cole Ragans, who will be making his first start since June 5th and will be on a pitch count.  Ragans is 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA in 10 starts this season.  Bet the Mariners Wednesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mariners/Royals OVER 8.5

Two gas can starting pitchers go tonight with temps in the 80's so the ball should be flying out again tonight.  The Mariners beat the Royals 12-5 last night and it should be another slug fest tonight.

Ragans is 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA in 10 starts this season. He will be making his first start since June 5th so he will be on a pitch count.  The Mariners are capable of covering this total on their own again.  They have scored 4 runs or more in nine of their 10 games during their current 10-game winning streak, including 10 runs or more four times.

Bryce Miller is 4-5 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 15 starts for the Mariners this season.  Miller has allowed 10 earned runs in 9 innings in two career starts against Kansas City.  The Royals have scored 21 runs in their last three games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +136

The Cleveland Guardians are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall to pull within 2.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the Detroit Tigers tonight.

The Tigers are basically stuck where they're at as they are going to win the AL Central, but they are 4 games behind the Blue Jays and 2 games ahead of the Mariners for the 2nd seed in the American League.  Basically, they are playing with zero sense of urgency right now, going 7-13 in their last 20 games overall.

The Guardians have a big advantage on the mound tonight and should not be underdogs as a result.  Gavin Williams is 10-5 with a 3.16 ERA in 29 starts for the Guardians this season.  He is 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA in his last 10 starts.  Williams has owned the Tigers with a 1.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Jack Flaherty is 8-13 with a 4.69 ERA in 29 starts this season.  Flaherty is 3-4 with a 4.76 ERA in his last 10 starts.  He and the Tigers are getting way too much respect tonight.  Bet the Guardians Wednesday.

20* Phillies/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

The Phillies are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all seven games.  This total of 7.5 is way too low for a game involving the Phillies right now.  They have scored at least 6 runs in six of their last seven games overall.  The Dodgers are also raking scoring 5 runs or more in five of their last six games overall.

Cristopher Sanchez allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 2/3 innings in a 8-7 win over the Dodgers in his lone start against them this season.  Shohei Ohtani won't go deep in this game for the Dodgers, so this will be mostly a bullpen game for them.  Ohtani has allowed 10 earned runs in 17 innings in his last four starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -130

The Seattle Mariners have a lot to pay for right now.  They are 0.5 games ahead of the Houston Astros for 1st place in the AL West.  The Mariners have come up absolutely clutch here down the stretch going 9-0 in their last nine games overall to put themselves in this position.

I expect them to make it 10 in a row today against a dead Royals team that is 6.5 games out of the wild card and just ready for the season to be over at this point.  The Royals are 2-6 in their last eight games overall.

Logan Gilbert has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts while lasting at least 6 innings in three of them.  Gilbert has allowed just 5 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Royals.  Michael Wacha allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of a 6-2 loss to the Mariners in his lone start against them this season.  Bet the Mariners Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +126

The Cleveland Guardians are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall to pull within 3 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the Detroit Tigers tonight.

The Tigers are basically stuck where they're at as they are going to win the AL Central, but they are 3 games behind the Blue Jays and 3 games ahead of the Mariners for the 2nd seed in the American League.  Basically, they are playing with zero sense of urgency right now, going 7-12 in their last 19 games overall.

Joey Cantillo has been dominant in his last four starts for the Guardians.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings for a 1.09 ERA in those four starts.  This will be his first career start against the Tigers, so he will have the element of surprise working in his favor.

Casey Mize has been struggling for a couple months now for the Tigers.  Mize has posted a 6.07 ERA in his last 10 starts while allowing 31 earned runs in 46 innings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Guardians Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees -1.5 (-117)

The Minnesota Twins have been officially eliminated from playoff contention and are just ready for their season to be over.  They are playing like it as well going 3-10 in their last 13 games overall.  The New York Yankees have a lot more to play for not only trying to clinch a playoff spot, but also still alive in the AL East sitting 4 games behind the Blue Jays for 1st place with a great chance to make up some ground this series.

The Yankees have a big advantage on the mound that should have them winning this game by multiple runs tonight.  Carlos Rodon is 16-8 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 30 starts for the Yankees this season.  Rodon has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts.  He owns the Twins, going 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in his last three starts against them, allowing 4 earned runs and 12 base runners in 19 innings.

Simeon Woods-Richardson is 6-4 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  He is 3-3 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 11 night starts this season.  He has a 6.75 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 3 earned runs or more in four of them and 6 homers in 21 1/3 innings.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Rays OVER 8.5

Triple-A Park George M. Steinbrenner Field has proven to be hitter-friendly this season largely due to it being outdoors in hot weather.  It will be hot again today with temps in the 80's, and the ball should be flying out.

The Blue Jays rank 4th in baseball scoring 5.03 runs per game.  The Rays rank 13th scoring 4.48 runs per game, including 4.64 runs per game at home.  This total of 8.5 is too short with these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers.

Trey Yesavage will be making his MLB debut for the Blue Jays.  He has good K numbers in the minors, but control has been an issue for him, and the Rays are very patient at the plate.  I don't expect his first career start to go very well.

The Blue Jays are capable of covering this total on their own against Joe Boyle, who is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in six starts and four relief appearances this season.  Boyle is 0-3 with a 9.14 ERA and 1.89 WHIP at night, allowing 22 earned runs and 6 homers in 21 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bucs/Texans ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -2.5

I'll gladly back the desperate 0-1 team playing the fat and happy 1-0 team in this matchup between the Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Bucs.  The Texans lost a coin flip game on the road to the Rams last week, while the Bucs won a coin flip game against the Falcons on the road last week.

The Bucs had no business beating the Falcons 23-20 last week.  The Falcons outgained them 358 to 260 for the game and 5.1 to 4.7 yards per play.  But Koo missed a pair of FG's including the one that would have tied it and forced OT.  The Bucs have been getting lucky in close games for two straight years now.

It's clear to me Baker Mayfield misses offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who left to become the Jaguars head coach.  Mayfield completed just 53.1% of his passes for 167 yards while averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt against a pretty weak Falcons defense last week.  

Now he takes a big step up in class here against a Houston defense that many feel is the best in the NFL.  The Texans held the Rams to 14 points and 296 total yards on the road last week.  The problem was they couldn't capitalize on trips deep in Rams territory settling for three FG's and turning it over as they were going in for the game-winning score.  I expect their offense to be much better at home this week.

I expect Houston's defense to lead the way though against a very banged up Bucs offense.  The Bucs will be without WR Chris Godwin Jr., LT Tristan Wirfs, WR Jalen McMillan and they could be without RT Luke Goedeke, who is questionable.  These injuries will make life that much harder on going up against this defense that just doesn't have any weaknesses.  I have no doubt the Texans win this game by 3 points or more in their home opener.  Bet the Texans Monday.

15* Eagles/Chiefs Super Bowl Rematch on Philadelphia ML -114

The Kansas City Chiefs will want revenge on the Philadelphia Eagles after getting embarrassed by them in the Super Bowl.  The problem is they don't have the horses to get that revenge, and the Eagles remain the most talented team in the NFL if it's not the Baltimore Ravens.  I backed the Eagles with success in the Super Bowl, and I'm backing them again for a number of reasons in the rematch.

The Chiefs struggle with defenses that can get pressure without blitzing, which is exactly what the Eagles did to them in the Super Bowl.  The Eagles led 40-6 before calling off the dogs and allowing a couple garbage TD's in the final three minutes with the game already decided in a 40-22 final.  They harassed Patrick Mahomes for four quarters without blitzing as he had one of the worst games of his career.

The Eagles held the Cowboys to 20 points in the opener despite losing one of their best players in DE Jalen Carter in the 1Q after spitting on Dak Prescott.  Carter is back this week, and the Eagles are at full strength defensively in the health department.  The Eagles are also at full strength on offense with the exception of Dallas Goedert, but they have a deep TE room and he won't be missed too much.  The Eagles scored touchdowns on each of their first three drives against the Cowboys, and a weather delay is the only thing that could slow them down.

The Chiefs are coming off a 27-21 loss to the Chargers in Brazil as 3-point favorites.  They allowed 394 total yards and 6.7 yards per play to the Chargers as their defense is clearly taking a step back this season.  But more concerning is the lack of weapons on offense after Xavier Worthy was lost to a shoulder injury after running into Travis Kelce, who is clearly on his last leg.

The Chiefs will be without WR Worthy, WR Rashee Rice and WR Jalen Royals for this one.  All three were expected to play big roles for the Chiefs this season.  Now they are down to Hollywood Brown, the elder JuJu Smith-Schuster and the even older Travis Kelce as Mahomes' main weapons.  He just can't have much success with this weak group of playmakers in their current form this week.

The Chiefs were 17-0 in their last 17 one-score games prior to finally having that streak end against the Chargers last week. I think their luck has run out, and they were clearly due some regression and it will continue to hit them time and time again this season, including in this game against a much superior Eagles squad that is favored for good reason on the road.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Chiefs UNDER 47

It's safe to say the Eagles and Chiefs are familiar with one another after playing in two of the past three Super Bowls.  They know each other inside and out, and I think that favors defense over offense.

This elite Philadelphia defense held the Chiefs to a total of 6 points with under 3 minutes remaining in the Super Bowl before calling off the dogs.  I think they will have similar success shutting down the Chiefs considering they are without WR Worthy, WR Rashee Rice and WR Jalen Royals for this one.  All three were expected to play big roles for the Chiefs this season.  Now they are down to Hollywood Brown, the elder JuJu Smith-Schuster and the even older Travis Kelce as Mahomes' main weapons.  He just can't have much success with this weak group of playmakers in their current form this week.

There are some concerns with this Philadelphia offense after being held to 24 points, 302 total yards and 5.0 per play against the Cowboys last week.  The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season without Micah Parsons.  The Eagles are going through a change in coordinators after losing Kellen Moore to the Saints.  The Chiefs should be able to hold them in check enough to keep this thing UNDER 47 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -106

The Cincinnati Reds trail the New York Mets by just 1.5 games for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They will be highly motivated for that reason, plus to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the A's.

Nick Lodolo is 8-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 5-5 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 14 road starts.  Luis Morales is coming off his worst start of the season for the A's, allowing 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 2/3 innings of a 7-0 home loss to the Red Sox on September 8th.  Bet the Reds Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Cubs OVER 7

The Cubs are capable of covering this total on their own today against Adrian Houser, who is 3-2 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in his last nine starts.  Houser has allowed 12 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.  He has allowed 7 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Chicago.

Shota Imanaga has allowed at least 3 earned runs in three consecutive starts and six of his last nine starts overall.  Imanaga has allowed at least one homer in six consecutive starts and a total of 13 homers in his last nine starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +105

The Arizona Diamondbacks are just 2 games behind the Mets for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They continue to battle, while the Minnesota Twins are just ready for their season to be over.  The Twins are 3-9 in their last 12 games overall.  Wrong team favored here.

Nabil Crismatt is 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in four starts and one relief appearance this season, allowing just 9 earned runs in 25 innings.  Bailey Ober is 5-7 with a 5.08 ERA in 24 starts for the Twins this season, including 2-3 with a 5.71 ERA in 13 day game starts.  Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +8.5

I grabbed the Jets +8.5 Sunday night and would still play it down to +7 as a 20*.  But at +6.5 or worse it would drop to a 15*.  This was the first play I released to my clients this week as I anticipated the line wouldn't last long.  This is the perfect spot to back the Jets.

I love backing 0-1 teams against 1-0 teams in Week 2.  But these teams should have their records reversed.  The Jets deserved to beat the Steelers in Week 1, while the Bills deserved to lose to the Ravens in Week 1.  Instead, the Jets lost by 2 while the Bills won by 1.  If these records were reversed this line wouldn't have been as high as it was to open.

The Jets outgained the Steelers 394 to 271 last week and 6.5 to 5.4 yards per play.  But they lost 34-32 despite dominating the box score.  The Bills miraculously scored three times late in the 4th quarter to overcome a 15-point deficit in a 41-40 win.  They were outgained 9.0 to 6.5 yards per play.  That's right, their defense gave up 9.0 yards per play for the game!

This Buffalo defense is going to be even worse off this week due to injuries.  They will be without starting DT Ed Oliver, while starting CB's Tre'Davious White and Taron Johnson, along with LB Shaq Thompson are all questionable.  This is a very poor Buffalo defense and I think it will be their undoing as the season progresses.

The Jets also have the element of surprise with Justin Fields at QB and new schemes on both offense and defense under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn.  Their offense made a very good Pittsburgh defense look mediocre last week with 394 yards and 6.5 yards per play against it.  Fields has always gotten a bad rap due to his lack of playmakers in Chicago and Pittsburgh prior.  He threw for 218 yards and a TD while also rushing for 48 yards and 2 TD against the Steelers.

The Bills are fat and happy after that comeback win over the Ravens on Sunday Night Football.  They won't be nearly as motivated or focused to beat the Jets this week.  They also used a lot of energy in that comeback win, and they are paying for it with a lot of injuries.  The Jets are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Bills in New York with all three games decided by 6 points or fewer.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee Titans +6

I love the spot for the Tennessee Titans this week.  They are a desperate 0-1 team playing a 1-0 team, and the 0-1 teams in this situation have been great bets in Week 2.  This is one of my favorite spots to back the Titans.

They had their chances last week on the road against Denver but a couple coaching blunders likely cost them a chance to win.  I think Brian Callahan will make the necessary corrections for his mistakes, and I actually though Cam Ward played reasonably well for a No. 1 pick making his first career start on the road in altitude in a hostile atmosphere in Denver.

The Titans lost 20-12 in Denver but this was a 1-point game late in the 4th quarter.  The Titans had their chances to tie it but Ward just kept barely missing his receivers on seem routes.  The timing was a little off, and I think they will work on that timing this week and be much better at home against the Rams.

One of the best kept secrets in the NFL is that the Titans have one of the best defenses in the league.  Despite going 3-14 last season, the Titans ranked 2nd in the NFL in total defense allowing 311.2 yards per game.  They just had terrible QB play on offense and the worst special teams in the NFL.  Both will be improved greatly this season with Ward at QB and more emphasis on special teams, plus the Titans will remain one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They made Bo Nix look like a rookie last week intercepting him twice and limiting the Broncos to 20 points, 317 total yards and 4.5 yards per play.

The Rams are coming off a hard-fought 14-9 win over the Texans at home in Week 1.  Matthew Stafford has been out with a back injury and barely practicing with the team, so it's no surprise the Rams aren't sharp offensively in the early going.  They managed just 296 yards and 14 points against the Texans, who were banged up on offense.

I think Stafford and company have an even tougher test this week going on the road for the first time in what will be a hostile atmosphere in Nashville with the anticipation for Cam Ward's home debut.  I also could see the Rams looking ahead to a huge game against the Eagles next week.  The Eagles knicked the Rams out of the playoffs and they obviously would love some revenge.  That game is much more important to them than this one.  It's also their first 10:00 AM body clock game of the season out East.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6

The Cowboys were 3-point favorites on the lookahead line in this game.  It has been adjusted up a full 3 points to Cowboys -6 now after one week of results.  I think it's time to 'buy low' on the Giants and 'sell high' on the Cowboys this week.

To put things into perspective, the Giants were 6-point road underdogs to the Commanders in their 21-6 loss last week.  So this line is saying that the Cowboys are equal to the Commanders.  That's just not the case as I have Washington power rated 3 points better than Dallas.

That's especially not the case now that the Cowboys traded away Micah Parson, and they will be without arguably their 2nd-best defensive player in CB DaRon Bland, who they just gave a shiny big new contract too right after trading Parsons.  The fact is this Dallas defense is going to be one of the worst in the NFL this season.  They rank dead last or 2nd to last in all major statistical categories defensively last season when Parsons was not on the field.

The Eagles were torching this Dallas defense scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions last week.  But then the rain delay happened, and it's almost like clockwork offenses slow down coming out of a delay, and it favors defense.  I know the Giants looked poor on offense last week, but that was Russell Wilson's first start with his new team against a solid Commanders defense.  Wilson and company will have a lot more success this week.

Unlike the Cowboys, the Giants have what should be one of the better defenses in the NFL this season.  They certainly have the best defensive line that can help mask their secondary.  They held the Commanders to 21 points last week which was pretty respectable considering what Jaden Daniels and company did to the rest of the league last year.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seahawks/Steelers OVER 40

The Pittsburgh Steelers go from being a dead nuts UNDER team the last few seasons under Mike Tomlin to what appears to be a dead nuts OVER team early this season.  But oddsmakers are still lining their totals like they are the same team they were last year.  Last week's total was set at 38, and both teams nearly covered it on their own in a 34-32 win by the Steelers over the Jets and 66 combined points.

The Steelers finally have a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers for the first time since Big Ten retired.  He also has a No. 1 receiver in the way of DK Metcalf, who is going to want some revenge against his former team in this one.  Rodgers threw 4 TD passes and found Metcalf 4 times for 83 yards in the win over the Jets.

More concerning is a Pittsburgh defense that allowed 32 points, 394 total yards and 6.5 yards per play to Justin Fields and a Jets offense that wasn't expected to be very good.  They went into the game missing some players, and now they are missing even more defenders heading into this game against Seattle.  They will be without three starters in CB Joey Porter Jr., SS DeShon Elliott and DE Derrick Harman.  They have a mediocre defense at best without these guys.

Sam Darnold and this Seattle offense should get on track this week after a tough showing against the 49ers, who have one of the most improved defenses in the league under Robert Saleh as their new defensive coordinator.  But the Seahawks also only ran 49 plays in the game compared to 71 for the 49ers, so they just couldn't get in a rhythm.  Look for Darnold and the running game to find their rhythm against Pittsburgh.

More concerning is a Seattle defense that gave up 384 yards and 5.4 yards per play to a 49ers offense that was missing so many key weapons.  They lost George Kittle early, and they were already without Brandon Aiyuk.  JuJuan Jennings suffered a shoulder injury, and Brock Purdy suffered toe and shoulder injuries that will keep him out for a few weeks.  Yet still the 49ers moved the ball up and down the field on this Seattle defense, which will be without top CB Devon Witherspoon for this game.  It doesn't take much to get to 40 points in today's NFL that is built for offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Giants/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5

The Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They have a very good offense with a healthy Dak Prescott, plenty of playmakers on the outside and a solid offensive line.  But they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They traded away Micah Parsons even after ranking as a bottom 2 defense in every major statistical category last season with him off the field.  They will be without arguably their 2nd-best defensive player in CB DaRon Bland, who they just gave a shiny big new contract too right after trading Parsons as he got injured last week.

The Eagles were torching this Dallas defense scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions last week.  But then the rain delay happened, and it's almost like clockwork offenses slow down coming out of a delay, and it favors defense.  I know the Giants looked poor on offense last week, but that was Russell Wilson's first start with his new team against a solid Commanders defense.  Wilson and company will have a lot more success this week.

The Giants were supposed to have an improved defense with one of the best defensive lines in the NFL this season, but that didn't show in Week 1.  The Giants allowed 432 total yards and 7.0 yards per play to the Commanders, who came back and looked atrocious on offense against Parsons and the Packers on Thursday.  The Cowboys will get their points, too.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Giants and Cowboys in Dallas.  They have combined for at least 47 points in all six meetings inside the Jerry Dome, which is perfect conditions for scoring.  This total of 44.5 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas State +15

Arizona State is one of the most overrated teams in the country after a dream season last year that saw them win the Big 12 Championship and give Texas all they could handle in the 12-team playoff.  The Sun Devils pulled off the miracle, finishing 1st after being picked to finish last in the Big 12.  Now I think they will regress and finish middle of the pack this season.

While the Sun Devils return 17 starters and will be good again, they lose their heart and soul in RB Cam Skattebo, who put the team on his shoulders all season last year.  Skattebo rushed for 1,711 yards and 21 TD, while also catching 45 balls for 605 yards and three scores.  He made life much easier on QB Sam Leavitt, who will have to shoulder much more of the load this season and I don't think he's ready for it.

I faded Boise State with USF in a similar situation in a 34-7 loss to the Bulls as 6.5-point favorites.  They lost Ashton Jeanty and more is on Maddux Madsen this season, and he's not ready for it.  I don't think Leavitt is ready for it, either.  

The Sun Devils got off to an underwhelming start beating FCS Northern Arizona 38-19 as 29.5-point favorites and not even coming close to covering the spread.  They only had one more first down than Northern Arizona and only outgained them by 129 yards.

I released my 25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +7 against Arizona State last week.  The Bulldogs jumped out to a 17-0 lead and pulled off the outright upset, 24-21.  That was a 2-10 Mississippi State team last season.  The Bulldogs outgained the Sun Devils 5.4 to 4.5 yards per play.

Now I'm fading Arizona State again with an underrated Texas State team.  G.J. Kinne is doing big things in San Marcos guiding the Bobcats to back-to-back 8-5 seasons.  Now in his 3rd season, he has all the pieces in place to have another great year.  This team is underrated due to bringing back just five starters, but Kinne did great in the transfer portal finding replacements.

Texas State blasted Eastern Michigan 52-27 in the opener as 14-point favorites.  The Bobcats backed it up by upsetting UTSA 43-36 as 4.5-point road underdogs last week.  And now they have their sights set on revenge from a 31-28 home loss to Arizona State as 2.5-point dogs last season.  They outgained the Sun Devils by 53 yards in the loss to prove they could hang.  They also bottled Scattebo up as well as anyone, holding him to 62 rushing yards and 2 TD on 24 carries.

Arizona State is without RB Kyson Brown and WR Jalen Moss, which is a big reason Leavitt has struggled so much thus far.  Brown has 84 rushing yards and 72 receiving yards through two games.  Moss has been out for each of their first two games and remains doubtful for this one.  Texas State has playmakers all over the field and will keep coming, champing at the bit for some revenge in this one.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Cincinnati Reds -113

The Cincinnati Reds are just 1.5 games back of the New York Mets for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They have a lot to play for right now, and I expect ace Hunter Greene to deliver the good again tonight.

Greene is 6-4 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 16 starts this season with 113 K's in 90 1/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Luis Severino, who is 1-9 with a 6.34 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 13 home starts for the A's this season.  Cincinnati should be a bigger favorite with this huge advantage on the mound tonight.  Bet the Reds Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Akron/UAB OVER 55

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers allowed 34.3 points per game last season.  They return just four starters on D and lose nine of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago.  They are going to be forced to try and win shootouts again this season, and that was on display in Week 1.

UAB beat Alabama State 52-42 as 21-point favorites with a total of just 53.5.  They sailed over that total by 40.5 points finishing with 94 combined points.  They gained 520 yards and 9.0 yards per play while allowing 514 yards and 7.9 per play.

UAB's offense took off once Jalen Kitna took over at QB for Jacob Zeno after a 41-18 loss to Navy.  The Blazers averaged 33.4 points per game over their final five games last season.  Kitna completed 62% of his passes for 2,209 yards and a 17-to-11 TD/INT ratio in eight starts last season.  He went 18-of-23 passing for 247 yards and 2 TD against Alabama State and is now comfortable in Trent Dilfer's system.

Last week, UAB lost 38-24 at Navy finishing with 62 combined points and going OVER the 59-point closing total.  That's a Navy team that likes to slow the game down too, so to get to 62 with Navy was impressive.   Kitna threw for 304 yards and 2 TD with 2 INT in the loss.   They allowed 463 total yards to the Midshipmen.

This total is only this low at 55 because Akron has been shut out in consecutive games against two dead nuts under teams in Wyoming and Nebraska, two teams that rely on defense and don't play fast on offense.  But they allowed 68 points to Nebraska and their defense is soft as butter.  I wouldn't be surprised if UAB scores 55 on its own.

But this Akron offense should finally get on track this week taking a big step down in class here after facing very good Nebraska and Wyoming defenses.  While the Zips return just two starters on D and will be terrible on D all season, they return five starters on offense including senior QB Ben Finley.  He threw for 2,604 yards and 16 TD last season for the Zips, and he'll have one of the biggest games of his career this week trying to keep up in a shootout with the Blazers. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +5.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores were one of the most improved teams in the country last season.  They went 7-6 with five outright upsets as underdogs last season.  Now they have 17 starters back from that team, and this is the best Vanderbilt team I can remember in a long time.

It's largely due to having one of the best leaders in the country in senior QB Diego Pavia.  He just refuses to lose and his teammates follow him.  Paiva is 8-2 ATS as an underdog at Vanderbilt, and he worked his magic at New Mexico State prior leading the Aggies to an appearance in the conference championship game.

South Carolina figures to take a big step back this season.  The Gamecocks only return 12 starters this season and lost 5 NFL draft picks on defense alone, plus four more who signed as undrafted free agents.  They are without CB Judge Collier who was one of their top returnees on D.

These teams already have a common opponent in Virginia Tech.  South Carolina beat Virginia Tech 24-11 on a neutral despite getting outgained by 8 yards.  The Gamecocks got a late punt return TD that was the difference.  Vanderbilt blasted Virginia Tech 44-20 on the road last week.  This was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as the Commodores outgained the Hokies 490 to 248, or by 242 total yards.  They also outgained the Hokies 8.6 to 4.1 yards per play.

Last week, South Carolina had another misleading 38-10 win over South Carolina State as 42.5-point favorites.  They failed to cover the spread by 14.5 points despite getting not one, not two, but three non-offensive touchdowns.  They had two punt return TD's and a fumbled return TD.

LaNorris Sellers is a good QB, but he doesn't have nearly as much help this season.  The Gamecocks have only scored 34 of their 62 total points this season on offense despite the weak schedule.  They only managed 253 total yards against South Carolina State.  They are averaging only 5.2 yards per play on the season while the Commodores are averaging 8.4 yards per play.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Diamondbacks/Twins OVER 8

The Minnesota Twins have been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch going 18-6-1 OVER in their last 25 games overall.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 19 of those 25 games.  They have terrible pitching, but their lineup continues to produce.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 8 or more combined runs in all six, including 17 combined runs in Game 1 yesterday.

Arizona ranks 5th in baseball scoring 4.95 runs per game.  But the Diamondbacks rank 23rd allowing 4.82 runs per game with one of the worst staffs in baseball like the Twins, who are 24th at 4.83 runs per game.  The Diamondbacks and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in 9 of their last 11 games overall.

Ryne Nelson is 0-2 with a 16.19 ERA and 2.70 WHIP in two career starts against the Twins, allowing 12 earned runs and 18 base runners in 6 2/3 innings.  Joe Ryan allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone career start against the Diamondbacks.  Ryan has allowed 16 earned runs in 18 innings in his last four starts overall for a 8.00 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Arkansas/Ole Miss ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5

Quarterbacks and offenses in general tend to take big leaps in Year 2 under Bobby Petrino.  Petrino returned to Arkansas as offensive coordinator last season, and he is back again this season.  Talented QB Taylen Green figures to have a massive senior year after throwing for 3,154 yards and 15 TD last season, while also rushing for 602 yards and 8 scores.

Green and this Arkansas offense are off to a great start beating Alabama A&M 52-7.  This was a 45-7 game entering the 4th quarter before the Hogs called off the dogs.  Green threw for 322 yards and 6 TD in the win.  He backed it up with another 4 TD performance in a 56-14 win over Arkansas State last week.  This Arkansas offense is a juggernaut, but I think the defense will be poor again this season, so the Hogs will find themselves in a lot of shootouts.

There will probably be no tougher test for this Arkansas defense than this Ole Miss offense run by Lane Kiffin.  Ole Miss beat Arkansas 63-31 for 94 combined points last season and scored pretty much every time they touched the football while racking up 694 total yards in the process.

No question this Ole Miss offense won't be as potent this season with the loss to Jaxson Dart, but Kiffin always gets the most out of his QB's, and Ustin Simmons is the next one in line.  Simmons threw for 341 yards and 3 TD in a 63-7 win over Georgia State in the opener.

I think the fact that Ole Miss only beat Kentucky 30-23 last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.  But Kentucky shortened the game by running the play clock down every time, which has been their key to keeping games against Ole Miss competitive in recent years.  Bobby Petrino will have no interest in that, and he doesn't mind getting in a shootout.  This should be one of the most entertaining, high-scoring games of the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on South Florida +17.5

The South Florida Bulls are a team on the rise and I'm expecting them to make a run at a AAC title this season.  Head coach Alex Golesh is in his 3rd season with the team and has his best squad yet despite already getting the Bulls to bowl games in each of his first two seasons.

Golesh returns 16 starters and gets QB Byrum Brown back from injury.  He was lost for the season after five starts, and while the offense was still in good hands with Bryce Archie, they lost that dual-threat ability of Brown.  Keep in mind freshman Locklan Hewlett is the QB of the future as well to push both.  The offensive line returns four starters, adds in two transfers, and has 115 career starts back.

The biggest improvement should come from a defense that returns eight starters.  Each of the top three tacklers are back, and they added a lot of talent in the portal.  Each unit looks like the best of the Golesh era, and DC Todd Orlando should get the most out of them.

I cashed USF +6.5 over Boise State in the opener in a 34-7 upset victory.  Brown went 16-of-24 passing for 210 yards, while also rushing for 43 yards and two scores.  He also had a TD called back by penalty.  The Bulls were on cruise control in the 2H with the game in hand.

I cashed USF +18.5 last week in a 18-16 upset road win at Florida.  There was nothing fluky about that win as the Bulls outgained the Gators 391 to 355, or by 36 total yards.  Brown threw for 263 yards and a TD while also rushing for 66 yards in the win.  He is one of the best QB's in the country that nobody knows about.

If the Bulls playing anyone other than another in-state rival and Top 5 team in the country in Miami, they would probably have a letdown this week.  But they'll have no problem getting up for this game against the Hurricanes, and I fully expect them to give Miami a run for its money today.

Miami is getting a lot of respect for its 27-24 win over Notre Dame in the opener.  That's a Notre Dame team that was breaking in a freshman QB and with a much weaker defense than last year and new defensive coordinator.  Miami came back with a lackluster 45-3 win as 53.5-point favorites over Bethune-Cookman last week.  They just cannot be trusted to lay these kinds of numbers as Mario Cristobal is the king of underachieving.  Miami has a much bigger game against Florida on deck next week.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rangers/Mets OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Rangers and Mets tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left at Citi Field.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 11 or more combined runs in four of them.

The Mets should hang a big number on Patrick Corbin, who is 7-9 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  Corbin has been at his worst on the road, going 4-5 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 14 starts away from home.  He hates facing the Mets, allowing 18 earned runs and 7 homers in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them for a 11.30 ERA.

Brandon Sproat will be making his 2nd career start for the Mets.  Sproat allowed 3 earned runs in 6 innings to the Reds in his first start on September 7th.  Now he must face a red hot Rangers lineup that has scored at least 4 runs in all five games during their current 5-game winning streak.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tigers/Marlins OVER 8.5

The Miami Marlins are now 92-58-7 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 5-1 in Marlins last six home games with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six.  These two gas can starting pitchers figure to get rocked by both offenses today.

The Tigers rank 8th in baseball scoring 4.89 runs per game.  They should crush Janson Junk, who has a 5.32 ERA in 44 innings at home this season.  Junk has allowed 3 earned runs or more in eight consecutive starts and a total of 31 earned runs in 42 innings in those eight starts for a 6.64 ERA during this stretch.

Charlie Morton is 9-10 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 24 starts this season and on his last leg.  Morton has allowed 14 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  He has allowed 10 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Miami.  He is 0-2 with an 8.81 ERA in his last three starts in Miami, allowing 16 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/Arkansas State OVER 55

Arkansas State is a dead nuts OVER team under offensive-minded head coach Butch Jones.  The Red Wolves allowed 32.2 points per game and 462 yards per game last season.  You won't think they could be any worse, but they might be this season with just three starters back on D.  They lose each of their top 11 tacklers from last season.

But the Red Wolves have a lot of talent returning on offense including QB Jaylen Raynor, who completed 62% of his passes for 2,783 yards and 16 TD last season, while also rushing for 387 yards and 3 scores.  Also back is WR Corey Rucker, who had 1,053 yards and 7 TD last season.

To no surprise, Arkansas State was in a shootout in Week 1 beating SE Missouri State 42-24 for 66 combined points.  Raynor went 26-of-32 passing for 345 yards and 3 TD.  Their D allowed 365 yards and 5.4 per play against a terrible FCS team.  It was an even bigger shootout last week in a 56-14 loss at Arkansas and 70 combined points.  The Razorbacks racked up 630 yards on this soft Red Wolves defense.

The Iowa State Cyclones will hang another big number on Arkansas State.  They beat the Red Wolves 52-7 for 59 combined points at home last season, and they should come close to hanging 50 again.  They beat South Dakota 55-7 in Week 2 with a similar level of defense.  The other two games were against two top notch defenses in Iowa and Kansas State, which were lower scoring and are keeping this total lower than it should be.  Rocco Becht is legit one of the best QB's in the country, completing 68% of his passes for 595 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio thus far.

It's also true Iowa State's defense has benefited from playing a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses thus far in K-State, Iowa and South Dakota.  I think Raynor and company can get two or three touchdowns on this Iowa State defense to help contribute to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Temps will be in the 90's with no wind so it will be perfect scoring conditions, plus both defenses will get tired in the 2H.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh -6.5

The Pitt Panthers were 7-0 last season before QB Eli Holstein got injured.  They went 0-6 over their final six games with three losses by 5 points or fewer.  That poor finish put a big chip on their shoulder in the offseason, and they are undervalued to start the season as a result.

The Panthers are loaded with 16 returning starters as this could be one of the best teams of the Pat Narduzzi era as he enters his 11th season.  Holstein is now a sophomore and figures to be one of the best QB's in the country.  He has completed 70.6% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio while leading the Panthers to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start with wins over Duquesne 61-9 as 39.5-point favorites and Central Michigan 45-17 as 21.5-point favorites.

West Virginia looks like one of the worst Power 4 teams in the country under first-year head coach Rich Rodriquez.  Only 10 starters are back, and they lost top RB Jahiem White (845 yards, 7 TD LY) and starting WR Jaden Bray (7 receptions, 95 yards TY) to season-ending injuries last week against Ohio.  The Mountaineers are full of transfers who don't even know much about this rivalry with Pitt, and I question their motivation compared to that of the Panthers as well.

After opening with a 45-3 win over Robert Morris as 40.5-point favorites, the Mountaineers were upset 17-10 at Ohio as 3.5-point favorites.  But they should have lost by even more as that was a very misleading final score.  They were outgained 429 to 250 by Ohio, or by 179 total yards.  The Bobcats three three 2H interceptions or would have won by more.  That's an Ohio team that lost a lot of key players from last season including most of their D and also had a first-year head coach.  Like Ohio, Pitt should easily win this game by a TD or more.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oregon State/Texas Tech OVER 60.5

Texas Tech looks like a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Red Raiders put up 37.6 points per game and 463 yards per game last season.  They returned 10 starters on offense this season including QB Behren Morton, who had a 27-to-8 TD/INT ratio last season.  They brought in offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich, who led Texas State's up-tempo, high-powered offense under G.J. Kinne over the last two seasons.

The Red Raiders allowed 34.8 points per game and 460 yards per game last season.  They do have 11 starters back on defense, but that's no necessarily a good thing.  They opened with two easy OVERS beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67-7 for 74 combined points and Kent State 62-14 for 76 combined points.  This total of 60.5 points isn't high enough this week, either.

I like what I've seen from Oregon State on offense.  After losing 34-15 to California in the opener, they lost 36-27 to Fresno State last week for 63 combined points.  They racked up 528 total yards on Fresno State and really should have won the game.  They missed four 2-point conversions in that contest as well.

Oregon State QB Malik Murphy is doing his part throwing for 615 yards and 4 TD in two games.  They have a stud RB in Anthony Hankerson, and two sud WR's in Trent Walker (16 receptions, 235 yards) and Taz Reddicks (12, 174) for him to throw to.  The defense is a mess after allowing 29.9 points per game last season, they have allowed 35 points per game through two games this season.  But I think they can keep up in a shootout with the Red Raiders as these teams trade scores for four quarters.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Missouri State +28

The SMU Mustangs are overvalued this season due to making the 12-team playoff last year after taking advantage of a very week ACC schedule.  SMU only returns 12 starters and loses Brashard Smith who rushed for 1,332 yards and 14 TD last season.  They also lose their top two receivers.

SMU beat East Texas A&M 42-13 as 50.5-point favorites in what was a very misleading final in Week 1.  But SMU had two pick 6's and only outgained lowly East Texas A&M by 51 yards! That's the same East Texas A&M team that went on to lose 77-3 to Florida State last week!

The spot is terrible for SMU.  The Mustangs blew a late 14-point lead against in-state rival Baylor and lost 48-45 (OT) in Week 2.  They allowed 601 total yards to the Bears and were outgained by 143 yards.  I question how much they will have left in the tank this week, I like fading teams coming off a very close loss in a big game rather than fading a team off a very close win in a big game.  There tends to be more of a hangover effect for the team coming off the loss.

SMU WR Jordan Hudson, their 3rd-leading receiver from last year, is doubtful after sustaining an injury against East Texas A&M and sitting out the Baylor game.  Injuries are really piling up on defense as starting LB Alex Kilgore, starting LB Zakye Barker and starting DE Cam Robertson are all questionable.  They have another in-state rivalry game with TCU on deck next week, so this is a sandwich spot for them, and they could play it cautious with these injured players because of it.

Missouri State is in its first season as a FBS program.  But the Bears are set up much better for success than most teams making the leap to the FBS level.  They have a 3rd-year head coach in Ryan Beard and some stability.  They also return their best player in QB Jacob Clark, who threw for 3,604 yards with a 26-to-6 TD/INT ratio last season.

I think USC is a playoff contender this season, and Missouri State is undervalued now after a 73-13 loss at USC in the opener.  That came to fruition last week when the Bears went into Marshall and pulled the 21-20 win as 7-point underdogs.  That game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as Missouri State outgained Marshall 474 to 274, or by 200 total yards.  Clark went 21-of-31 passing for 359 yards and 3 TD with one INT in the win.

There will be no letdown for the Bears after their first FBS win as they now get to play their home opener, and fans will pack the stadium in anticipation with a team from the ACC coming to town.  No question the Bears will be more motivated for this game than the Mustangs, who will get more of a fight than they bargained for this week. Bet Missouri State Saturday.