|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-12-22||Nebraska +31 v. Michigan||Top||3-34||Push||0||68 h 44 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +31
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have not given up on their season under interim head coach Mickey Joseph. They have gone 2-3 SU but 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall and were competitive in all three losses. They beat Indiana and Rutgers and only lost by 6 at Purdue as 14-point dogs and 7 at Minnesota as 15-point dogs. They lost by 17 to Illinois as 7.5-point dogs as well.
Look for them to give Michigan more of a fight than they bargained for Saturday. After all, Nebraska only lost 29-32 at home to Michigan last season. That's a Michigan team that went on to make the four-team playoff. Speaking of, the Wolverines know they just need to keep winning to make the four-team playoff again. They don't need style points as they are already ranked No. 3 in the four-team playoff. They just need to get to Ohio State in the final week of the season, which means get in and get out with victories against Nebraska and Illinois the next two weeks. They aren't worried about getting margin.
Michigan is also coming off a misleading 52-17 win at Rutgers last week that has this number inflated. They were 25.5-point favorites in that game and actually trailed at halftime. But a string of Rutgers turnovers, punts and defensive touchdowns by Michigan had that game spiraling out of control in a hurry. Nebraska will put up a lot more resistance and can't be 31-point dogs when Rutgers were 25.5-point dogs. The Huskers will be the more motivated team as they are looking at this as their National Championship Game, and they want revenge from that 3-point defeat last year.
Nebraska is a perfect 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games after scoring fewer than 20 points in its previous game. Take Nebraska Saturday.
|11-12-22||New Mexico +22 v. Air Force||Top||3-35||Loss||-110||73 h 41 m||Show|
20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico +22
New Mexico defensive coordinator Rocky Long is the king of defending the triple-option having seen it throughout his career. He is one of the best in the business, and he will have this underrated New Mexico defense ready to stop Air Force's triple-option.
This total is just 37 in some places. So getting 22 points in a game that is expected to be low-scoring is too much. Points become more valuable when the total is this low. The Lobos are coming off a misleading 10-27 loss at Utah State as 14.5-point dogs which was a brutal beat for New Mexico backers. I would know since I was on them.
New Mexico led 10-7 at halftime but got outscored 20-0 in the second half only after a defensive touchdown on a fumble in the final few minutes. The Lobos were only outgained by 22 yards by the Aggies. It was the third time this season they have given up a defensive touchdown at the end of the game that cost them the cover, which makes their stats misleading and those three non-offensive touchdowns count against their defense.
Even with them, New Mexico is only giving up 25.1 points per game, 344.3 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season. They are very good against the run, which is key here. They give up just 136 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry. They can hold Air Force in check which will allow them to cover this inflated number despite averaging just 16.0 points per game on offense.
This is a bad spot for Air Force. They just won the Commander In Chief trophy for the first time in six years after a 13-7 win over Army last week. They also beat Navy 13-10. I could see this game being as ugly as those two games, which again favors New Mexico catching all these points. Keep in mind Air Force lost 27-34 to Utah State and gave up 417 yards while getting outgained by 57 yards by Aggies which gives these teams a common opponent.
Air Force is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games. The Falcons are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 home games after scoring 3 points or fewer in the first half of last game. Air Force is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win. The Lobos are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet New Mexico Saturday.
|11-12-22||Louisville +7 v. Clemson||Top||16-31||Loss||-107||68 h 39 m||Show|
20* Louisville/Clemson ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville +7
Louisville is quietly 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall and getting better with each game. The Cardinals started this run with a 34-17 win at Virginia as 2-point dogs. They came back with a 24-10 home win over Pittsburgh as 1-point favorites. They followed it up with a 48-21 upset home win over Wake Forest as 3-point dogs.
But last week might have been the most impressive of them all. Facing a clear sandwich and lookahead spot off the win against Wake Forest and with Clemson on deck, the Cardinals avoided the letdown with a 34-10 win over a James Madison team that was coming off their bye week. They dominated the game, outgaining the Dukes 467 to 193, or by 274 total yards. That effort shows a lot about the character of this team.
Now the Cardinals aren't about to let up as they will be even more excited to try and upset Clemson this week. And this is a terrible spot for Clemson. The Tigers just suffered their first loss of the season in a 14-35 loss at Notre Dame last week. Now they almost certainly won't be making the four-team playoff even if they win out. That's the kind of 'dream crusher' loss that can beat a team twice. I question whether or not Clemson will be able to get back up off the mat.
You could see a loss coming for Clemson a mile away, though. They have barely been getting by all season. They needed OT to beat Wake Forest by 6, only beat NC State by 10, only beat FSU by 6 and only beat Syracuse by 6. That's four games that went down to the wire. I think this one will too. Louisville wants revenge from a 24-30 loss to Clemson last year in which they were stopped at the goal line in the final seconds. I think this is a one-score game again either way, so there's a ton of value catching 7 points.
AP Top 5 teams the previous week that are coming off a loss are covering just 39.3% of the time since 2010, 36.2% of the time if a favorite of -7 or higher, 31.9% of the time if they scored 37 or fewer points, and 26.3% of the time they gained under 300 yards. Clemson was manhandled by Notre Dame giving up 263 rushing yards. They only managed 281 yards of offense in the loss. These trends just go to show the impact of the 'dream crusher' scenario. There tends to be a hangover effect.
Clemson is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points. Clemson is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games. Bet Louisville Saturday.
|11-12-22||North Texas +6 v. UAB||Top||21-41||Loss||-110||68 h 38 m||Show|
20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on North Texas +6
I've been riding North Texas and I'm going to continue to do so this weekend. The Mean Green are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and have been grossly undervalued. They lost by 10 at Memphis as 13-point dogs, upset FAU by 17 as 3-point dogs, crushed LA Tech by 20 as 6.5-point favorites, only lost at UTSA by 4 as 10-point dogs, upset WKU by 27 as 10-point road dogs and crushed FIU by 38 as 21.5-point favorites.
North Texas is in control of its own destiny. Win out and they will go to the C-USA Championship Game, so they have a lot to play for. Now the Mean Green are catching 6 points to a UAB team that is going to have a hard time getting motivated for this game Saturday. The Blazers have lost three consecutive games in heartbreaking fashion all by one score.
You could see the problems coming with a lackluster 34-20 win as 21.5-point favorites against lowly Charlotte to start their current 0-4 ATS stretch. They lost QB Dylan Hopkins early in a 17-20 loss at Western Kentucky. They are upset 17-24 at FAU with a backup QB. And last week they lost 38-44 (Double OT) to UTSA, which was their last gasp chance to stay alive in the C-USA title race.
Now the Blazers sit at 4-5 on the season and only playing for a bowl game. This is a team that is used to being in conference title contention. That dream crusher lost last week to UTSA will have a hangover effect here. Plus, they are tired already playing for a 7th consecutive week, not to mention coming off a double-OT game. And they still may be without QB Dylan Hopkins, who has been questionable each of the last two weeks and hasn't played. They may not be in a hurry to get him back now that they are out of title contention.
Even if UAB was fully healthy, I would think there is value on North Texas catching 6 points. They have an elite offense that averages 37.2 points per game, 503 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play. They are never out of any game due to their dynamic offense. The defense has been respectable too allowing 5.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.8 per play, so this is at least an average stop unit.
North Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. UAB is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after gaining 450 or more yards in two consecutive games. The Mean Green are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Roll with North Texas Saturday.
|11-12-22||Alabama v. Ole Miss +12.5||30-24||Win||100||68 h 35 m||Show|
15* Alabama/Ole Miss CBS ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +12.5
This is the first time in a long time I can remember Alabama not having a shot to make the four-team playoff at this point in the season. They have two losses, and a two-loss team is not getting into the four-team playoff. That will be a hard pill to swallow for these Alabama players and head coach Nick Saban. I question their motivation the rest the way, especially this week.
The Crimson Tide just lost 32-31 (OT) on a two-point conversion to LSU last week for their second loss. That was the 'dream crusher' loss for the Crimson Tide, who unlike last year don't have a path to the four-team playoff now. There usually tends to be a hangover effect the game after suffering the 'dream crusher' loss.
Now Alabama is being asked to go on the road and win by two touchdowns against Ole Miss to cover this 12.5-point spread. It's an Ole Miss team that is well rested coming off a bye week with two full weeks to prepare for Alabama. That is a huge advantage. It's also an Ole Miss team sitting at 8-1 this season and with a legitimate chance to make the four-team playoff if they run the table. The Rebels are the team with more to play for right now, and they'll be the more motivated team as a result.
Ole Miss is 5-0 at home this season with its lone loss coming on the road at LSU. The Rebels were at least competitive with Alabama the past two seasons and are looking to get over the hump with an upset victory this time around. This is their best chance as Alabama's defense is nowhere near as good as it has been in years' past. They gave up 52 points to Tennessee and 32 points to LSU in two of their last three games coming in.
The Crimson Tide have always struggled with dual-threat quarterbacks. Well, Tennessee and LSU both have dual-threats in Hooker and Daniels, and Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart is in that same mold. He has thrown for 1,912 yards with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 473 yards and 5.9 per carry this season. He leads a balanced offensive attack that is averaging 37.4 points per game, 495 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season. Ole Miss is only allowing 21.6 points per game on defense, not far behind the 18.3 points per game that Alabama gives up.
Plays against road teams (Alabama) - an excellent offensive team scoring 34 or more points per game against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7-plus games, after a loss by 3 points or less are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS since 1992. The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Alabama is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Rebels are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Alabama. Take Ole Miss Saturday.
|11-12-22||Liberty v. Connecticut +14.5||33-36||Win||100||64 h 7 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Connecticut +14.5
I cashed on Liberty in their 21-19 upset win at Arkansas as 14.5-point underdogs last week. But now I'm going against them as this a letdown spot for the Flames off their biggest win of the season. They did not deserve to win that game when you look at the box score. They were outgained by 113 yards by the Razorbacks. That misleading score is providing us extra line value to fade the Flames this week.
I want Liberty as an underdog. I don't want them as a favorite. Just three games back Liberty only beat Gardner Webb 21-20 as a 24.5-point favorite. The Flames won by 18 at UMass as 22.5-point favorties the game prior. They only beat Akron by 9 as 26-point favorites earlier this season as well. They were in dog fights with Gardner Webb, UMass and Akron. That's an FCS team and two of the worst teams in FBS.
UConn is no longer one of the worst teams in FBS. The Huskies have quietly gone 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS this season and are one win away from bowl eligibility. They have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six gmaes overall as they have consistently been undervalued. That includes an upset over Fresno State as a 23-point underdog and an upset of Boston College as an 8-point dog. They can hang with Liberty considering they will be the more motivated team with the Flames in this massive letdown spot. Take Connecticut Saturday.
|11-12-22||Notre Dame v. Navy +15.5||35-32||Win||100||64 h 6 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Navy +15.5
This is a terrible spot for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 35-14 upset home win over Clemson last week to hand the Tigers their first loss of the season. Amazingly, this has been a trend for the Fighting Irish all season as they have played to the level of their competition, and that will be the case again this week.
The Fighting Irish are 5-4 ATS this season. Their five covers have come against the five best teams they have faced in Ohio State, UNC, BYU, Syracuse and Clemson. Their four non-covers came against the worst four teams they faced in Marshall, Cal, Stanford and UNLV. They lost outright as double-digits favorites to Stanford (-16.5) and Marshall (-20.5) and only beat Cal (-13.5) by 7.
Now the Fighting Irish are massive 15.5-point favorites at Navy in this clear letdown spot off the win over Clemson. This is a Navy team that just gave Cincinnati all it wanted in a 20-10 loss as 18.5-point road dogs last week. The Midshipmen are now looking at this as their National Championship Game this week and they'll clearly be the more motivated team. Once again, Notre Dame will think it just has to show up to win and will play down to the level of its competition.
I love the matchup for Navy as well. Notre Dame cannot throw the ball right now. They only had 116 passing yards against Syracuse and 85 passing yards against Clemson in their last two games. Well, the strength of this Navy team is their run defense. They only allow 89 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry this season. They just held Cincinnati to 60 rushing yards last week.
Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games when playing against a good team (60% to 75%). Plays on neutral field underdogs (Navy) - an excellent ball control team that averages 32 or more possessions minutes per game. The Midshipmen are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record as they tend to play up to their level of competition. Roll with Navy Saturday.
|11-12-22||SMU v. South Florida OVER 72||41-23||Loss||-110||64 h 6 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on SMU/South Florida OVER 72
The SMU Mustangs just beat Houston 77-63 in regulation for 140 combined points last week. That was the highest-scoring game in college football history. It was the 3rd time in 4 games that SMU scored at least 40 points. The lone exception was the 27 points against a very good Cincinnati defense.
The Mustangs will be able to name their number this week against a South Florida defense that has allowed at least 41 points in five of its last six games. The Bulls rank last or second to last in almost every major category defensively. They give up 39.9 points per game, 504.1 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play. They just allowed 54 points and 721 total yards to a putrid Temple offense last week.
But South Florida can score and at least somewhat keep pace with SMU to contribute to this OVER. The Bulls have scored at least 24 points in seven of their last eight games overall. The Mustangs aren't very good defensively as they allow 33.7 points per game, 454 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. So this one has shootout written all over it with temps in the 80's and light wins at Raymond James Stadium Saturday.
The OVER is 12-1 in Bulls last 13 home games. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-11-22||Kings -3.5 v. Lakers||Top||120-114||Win||100||21 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -3.5
The Sacramento Kings are fully healthy now and playing up to their potential. They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 3 points at Golden State and by 3 points at Miami. They also upset Miami and Cleveland during this stretch.
Look for the Kings to roll the Los Angeles Lakers, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA even with a healthy LeBron James. They Lakers are 2-9 SU & 2-9 ATS this season. Now they will be without James tonight. They have no chance of even keeping this competitive as seven of their nine losses have come by 9 points or more.
The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Sacramento is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on one days' rest. The Lakers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a loss by more than 10 points. Roll with the Kings Friday.
|11-11-22||Fresno State v. UNLV OVER 59||Top||37-30||Win||100||73 h 27 m||Show|
25* College Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Fresno State/UNLV OVER 59
I love the OVER in this game between Fresno State and UNLV Friday. Both teams have season-long offensive numbers that lie because both were missing their stud starting quarterbacks for multiple games. They have arguably the two best quarterbacks in the Mountain West, so that's a big deal. We'll take advantage and back the OVER in what will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome at Allegiant Stadium Friday night in Las Vegas.
After jumping out to a surprising 4-1 start this season with their lone loss coming by 6 points at Cal, the UNLV Rebels have gone 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS in their last four games overall. A big step up in class has been a big reason for their struggles with losses to San Jose State, Air Force, Notre Dame and San Diego State.
But the biggest reason for their struggles was the injury to QB Doug Brumfield. He got injured in the first quarter of that loss to San Jose State. So he has basically missed 11 straight quarters, which just so happen to be UNLV's worst stretch of football this season. Brumfield returned against San Diego State last week and played well, and now he has shaken off the rust and will be even sharper this week against a much worse Fresno State defense than San Diego State's stop unit. Brumfield is completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,438 yards with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 142 yards and five scores in basically just six games of action.
Jake Haener is not only the best quarterback in the Mountain West, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the country and has an NFL future. That's why it hurt the Bulldogs when he went out in the first half of the USC game in their third game of the season. He missed the next four games before returning against San Diego State two weeks ago.
Haener picked up where he left off, throwing for 394 yards and three touchdowns in a 32-28 win over San Diego State. He came back with 327 yards and four touchdowns in a 55-13 win over Hawaii last week. Haener is now completing 74.3% of his passes for 1,575 yards with an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio in basically just 4.5 games this season.
UNLV averaged 11.7 PPG in their three games without Brumfield. Fresno State scored 20 or fewer points in four of the five games that Haener missed. As I stated before, that's why the season-long numbers for both teams are way off. These two offenses are much better than the numbers suggest with Haener and Brumfield healthy for the stretch run.
This has been an OVER series. The OVER 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 68, 67 and 83 points. UNLV Is 22-6 OVER in its last 28 games following a loss by 6 points or less. The OVER is 5-0 in Bulldogs last five games following a win. The OVER is 4-1 in Rebels last five home games. The OVER is 16-5 in Rebels last 21 Friday games. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-11-22||Cavs v. Warriors OVER 228||101-106||Loss||-110||20 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Warriors OVER 228
Two elite offensive teams and two poor defensive teams square off tonight when the Golden State Warriors host the Cleveland Cavaliers. This one has all the makings of a shootout tonight folks.
Golden State ranks 1st in the NBA in pace this season and will control the tempo playing at home. The Warriors are having no problems on offense this season ranking 12th in offensive efficiency. The Cavaliers have been great in that area which is a big reason for their improvement this season. They are 3rd in offensive efficiency and scoring 116.6 points per game.
The reason the Warriors are struggling so much is because they have taken a big step back defensively this season. They rank 25th in defensive efficiency. We've seen at least 229 combined points in nine of Golden State's 11 games this season. They are scoring 117.3 points per game and allowing 120.6 points per game.
The OVER is 18-7-1 in Cavaliers last 26 road games. The OVER is 4-1 in Warriors last five home games. The OVER is 7-3-1 in Warriors last 11 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-11-22||Bucks v. Spurs -115||93-111||Win||100||18 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Antonio Spurs PK
The Milwaukee Bucks are grossly overvalued right now due to their 10-1 start. It's time to 'sell high' on them, especially after they were just without all their best players and beat the Thunder 136-132 in double-OT. They won't be able to beat the Spurs without all their best players tonight.
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Spurs, who have lost five consecutive games but were competitive in three of the losses by 7 points or fewer. The blowout losses were due to injuries. But the Spurs are fully healthy now with the exception of Zach Collins.
The Spurs won't take the Bucks lightly tonight due to this five-game losing streak. That's key because Milwaukee cannot beat them unless San Antonio has a letdown. The Bucks are without their three best players in Giannis (31.8 PPG, 12.2 RPG), Holiday (19.6 PPG, 7.9 APG) and Middleton.
Plays on any team (San Antonio) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent against a team after a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Spurs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games playing on one days' rest. San Antonio is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the Spurs Friday.
|11-11-22||East Carolina +5 v. Cincinnati||Top||25-27||Win||100||71 h 57 m||Show|
20* East Carolina/Cincinnati ESPN 2 No-Brainer on East Carolina +5
East Carolina has a huge rest advantage over Cincinnati that isn't being factored into this line enough. Amazingly, the Pirates got a bye last week so they aren't on a short week like Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the Bearcats had to play a physical, sloppy game against Navy in a 20-10 win over Saturday and are now on a short week. They will also be playing for a fourth consecutive week and all three games came down to the wire, so it has taken its toll.
Cincinnati has been grossly overvalued all season after making the four-team playoff last season. The Bearcats are 7-2 SU but 2-6-1 ATS this season. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall beating USF by 4 as 26.5-point favorites, beating SMU by 2 as 3.5-point favorites, losing outright to UCF as 2.5-point dogs and only beating Navy by 10 as 18.5-point favorites. They have been fortunate in many close games this season, but their luck runs out against East Carolina this week.
You could make the case that East Carolina is the best team in this conference. The Pirates are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their nine games this season but have actually outgained eight of their nine opponents. That includes outgaining both Navy and Tulane in their two conference losses. But they crushed UCF 34-13, and now would own the tiebreaker on both UCF and Cincinnati with a win Friday night that would have them on the inside track to make the AAC title game, where they will be out for revenge against Tulane.
East Carolina is averaging 32.6 points per game, 467 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season. They have a balanced offense that averages 170 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry while also throwing for 297 yards per game and 8.2 per attempt. This will be Cincinnati's stiffest defensive test of the season, especially on a short week with a tired defense.
Cincinnati averages 410 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on offense and only rushes for 135 yards per game and 4.5 per carry. They have taken a big step back on offense this season and also a step back on defense. They allow 21.0 points per game against teams that only average 26.5 points per game, so they have faced a very easy schedule of opposing offenses. East Carolina isn't far behind allowing 23.2 points per game against teams that average 26.5 points per game. The numbers would be almost even if not for allowing 15 points in OT to Memphis.
The Pirates are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record. East Carolina is 26-9 ATS in its last 35 games as a road dog of 7 points or less, including 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. They pulled the 27-24 upset at BYU two weeks ago in a hostile atmosphere. That will have them ready for Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, especially since they have had two weeks to prepare for it. Take East Carolina Friday.
|11-11-22||Pennsylvania +12.5 v. Missouri||85-92||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Pennsylvania +12.5
Penn is expected to be the best team in the Ivy League this season. It's easy to see why as they returned four starters including likely Ivy League Player of the Year Jordan Dingle (20.8 PPG), who scored at least 30 points six times last season. Max Martz (10.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Jonah Charles (6.7 PPG) are sharp shooters. Michael Moshkovitz (5.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG) is a do-it-all type.
But Penn was blown out 78-50 at Iona as 6-point underdogs in the opener. I think that result has them catching too many points tonight against Missouri. That's an Iona team that is one of the best mid-majors in the country coached by Rick Pitino. And they simply had an off night shooting 32.7%.
Look for the Quakers to come back and give Missouri a run for its money tonight. Missouri only beat South Indiana 97-91 as 19.5-point favorites in the opener, a way more concerning result than Penn. This is a clear rebuilding year for the Tigers coming off a 12-21 season and under a first-year head coach in Dennis Gates from Cleveland State. The Tigers lost five players that averaged at least 6.6 PPG last season and return only one starter.
Penn is 50-30 ATS in its last 80 road games following a road loss. Steve Donahue is 15-6 ATS in road games off a road loss as the coach of Penn. Donahue is 15-3 ATS in road games after a game where his team made 33% of their shots or worse as a head coach. Donahue is 45-22 ATS as a road dog of 10 points or more as a head coach. Take Penn Friday.
|11-11-22||Fordham +19.5 v. Arkansas||48-74||Loss||-110||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Night Line Mistake on Fordham +19.5
The Fordham Rams are in a good position early in the season with all of their veteran experience returning. They bring back four starters from a team that went 16-16 last year. Kyle Neptune leaves for Villanova which is a job he earned, but Keith Urgo was Neptune's right-handed man and is ready for the job with 20 years of coaching experience at Penn State, Villanova and Fordham.
Four players who started at least 17 games last season are back, led by one of the A-10's best guards in Darius Quisenberry (16.2 PPG). I like Georgia Tech transfer Khalid Moore and 6-8 freshman Elijah Gray. PG Will Richardson will be a key contributor right away.
The Rams are off and running with an 88-74 win over Dartmouth as 7-point favorites in their opener. Quisenberry led the way with 20 points while Moore had 18. Third-year starter Kyle Rose had 11 points and JC import Antrell Charlton scored 16 points.
While I like this Fordham team and think they are undervalued to start the season, this play is more of a fade of Arkansas. They lost all five starters from last season including four double-digit scorers. I think they will struggle in the early going despite Eric Musselman bringing in some great talent to replace them.
The Razorbacks only beat North Dakota State 76-58 as 22.5-point favorites in their opener. That's a NDSU team that lost four starters and three double-digit scorers from last season. I would make Fordham a substantial favorite over NDSU, so I have to take the 19.5 points with the Rams here. The Rams are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall. Roll with Fordham Friday.
|11-11-22||Bowling Green v. Oakland -6.5||Top||87-82||Loss||-115||8 h 57 m||Show|
20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland -6.5
Oakland went 20-12 last season and brought back three starters from that team including G Jalen Moore (15.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Trey Townsend (13.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG). Head coach Greg Kampe also brought in an impressive haul of transfers, including Rocket Watts (Michigan State & Miss State), Lorne Bowman (Wisconsin) and Keaton Hervey (Missouri State).
The Golden Grizzlies are off and running this season with a 92-27 win over Defiance, which wasn't too 'defiant' in this one. Now they should roll Bowling Green, which narrowly escaped with a 62-58 home win over Air Force in their opener.
Bowling Green looks like one of the worst teams in the MAC this season. The Falcons went 13-18 last season including 6-14 in MAC play. They don't return a single double-digit scorer and lose their three best players in Plowden (15.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Reece (11.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and Diggs (9.5 PPG, 66 3-pointers). There are seven newcomers and I expect chemistry to be an issue early for this team.
The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Bowling Green is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall. Roll with Oakland Friday.
|11-11-22||Iona -2.5 v. Hofstra||Top||78-83||Loss||-115||8 h 56 m||Show|
20* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Iona -2.5
Rick Pitino is turning this Iona program into a monster. The Gaels went 25-8 last season including 17-3 in the MAAC. They returned three starters from that team including MAAC Player of the Year candidate Nelly Junior Joseph (13.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 69 blocks).
The Gaels are off and running this season with an impressive 78-50 home win as only 6-point favorites against what was expected to be a very good Penn team. The three returning starters in Joseph, Slazinski and JeanLouis combined for 41 points. Newcomer Daniss Jenkins led the way with 19 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists and could prove to be one of the best guards in the conference when it's all said and done.
Hofstra is getting respect tonight due to upsetting Princeton 83-77 as a 2-point underdog in the opener. But that is keeping this line lower than it should be, and it's providing us with some line value to pull the trigger on Iona. Hofstra returned its best player, but lost three starters in Ray (13.4 PPG), Cooks (12.2 PPG) and Ayiola (7.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG). One guy cannot beat this balanced Iona team.
Iona is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games. Hofstra is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games. Bet Iona Friday.
|11-10-22||76ers +1 v. Hawks||95-104||Loss||-105||9 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +1
Teams tend to rally when they lose a star player. That has been the case with the Brooklyn Nets as they are playing their best basketball of the season without Kyrie Irving. And it looks to be the case with the Philadelphia 76ers as well after finding out they'll be without James Harden until December.
The 76ers promptly upset the Phoenix Suns 100-88 last time out at home. They are rested and ready to go tonight as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight. They had two days off prior to the Phoenix game on Monday, and now have had two days off heading into this showdown with Atlanta.
That's a huge advantage for the 76ers when you consider the Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 119-125 home loss to the Utah Jazz last night. That game will have taken a lot out of them as it was an absolute shootout played at a high pace. They won't have much left in the tank for the 76ers tonight.
Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series. The road team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Hawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on zero rest. Take the 76ers Thursday.
|11-10-22||Tulsa v. Memphis OVER 61||Top||10-26||Loss||-110||46 h 26 m||Show|
20* Tulsa/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 61
Tulsa (3-6) and Memphis (4-5) are going through a disappointing seasons right now compared to preseason expectations. I have to think that they both don't care as much as they would have if they were in contention. And thus I think that plays out defensively in this game as both defenses play soft and the offensive shine in what is otherwise a meaningless game.
The forecast in Memphis is calling for 67 degrees and only 3 MPH winds Thursday night, so it is perfect conditions for a shootout. These teams have no problem playing in shootouts to say the least. In fact, the OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Tulsa and Memphis have combined for at least 60 points in six of those seven meetings. They have averaged a whopping 75.3 combined points per game in those seven meetings.
Memphis still has an elite offense this season that is averaging 33.9 points per game. Tulsa also averages 30.2 points per game despite what has been somewhat of a down year for their offense. But it's clear the biggest reason for both of their struggles is that they have both taken a step back defensively this season.
Indeed, Tulsa allows 33.2 points per game. They cannot stop the run, allowing 227 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. Memphis allows 31.6 points per game on the season. They have been particularly bad against the pass, allowing 65.3% completions and 277 passing yards per game.
The OVER is 8-1 in Memphis' nine games this season. We've seen 63 or more combined points in seven of Memphis' nine games this season with the lone exceptions being Temple and Navy, which have the two worst offenses in the AAC. We've seen 69 or more combined points in six of Tulsa's nine games this season. The OVER is 6-1 in Tigers last seven home games. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-10-22||Towson v. Massachusetts -2||67-55||Loss||-110||9 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass -2
The UMass Minutemen made one of the best hires of the offseason grabbing Frank Martin from South Carolina. He took the Gamecocks to the Final Four in 2017. He is great at turning around programs and loves a challenge.
But the cupboard isn't bare for Martin. He welcomes back one of the best point guards in the Atlantic 10 in Noah Fernandes (14.9 PPG) and shooter T.J. Weeks Jr. (9.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG) in the backcourt. Fernandes had a team-high 147 assists last season while Weeks shot 36.9% from 3-point range.
Martin put his reputation as a talented recruiter and evaluator of talent to use. He nabbed Louisville transfer Matt Cross and UConn transfer Rahsool Diggins, who were both Top 100 recruits out of high school. He also brought in a couple big men with him from South Carolina in Ta'Quan Woodley and Wildens Leveque. Dyondre Domingquez is a key returnee that should see more action.
The Minutemen are off to a great start to the Martin era with a 94-67 win as 17-point home favorites over Central Connecticut State. I think Towson is getting too much love early in the season after going 25-9 last year and beating up on a bad CAA Conference. They only beat Albany 67-62 as 16.5-point home favorites in their opener.
The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference home games. UMass is 28-13-2 ATS in its last 43 home games overall. Roll with UMass Thursday.
|11-09-22||Cavs v. Kings +5.5||120-127||Win||100||23 h 49 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +5.5
I love betting against teams that just had an extending winning streak snapped. There always seems to be a hangover effect and they just aren't as motivated as they were to try and keep the winning streak alive. That will be the case for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.
The Cavaliers are in a massive hangover spot here after having their 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS streak come to an end after blowing a late 8-point lead to the Clippers in a 117-119 loss on Monday. That was a double-header in Los Angeles after beating the Lakers the night before. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Kings now tonight after their winning streak was snapped.
Now they will be playing their 4th consecutive road game and their 3rd road game in 4 days against a Sacramento Kings team on the improve. The Kings are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 3 points at Miami and by 3 points at Golden State. I think they're showing tremendous value catching 5.5 points at home against the Cavaliers tonight.
Cleveland is 17-33 ATS in its last 50 games following a road loss. The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Cavaliers are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following an ATS loss.
Plays on any team (Sacramento) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent against a team that is off a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Kings Wednesday.
|11-09-22||Bucks v. Thunder UNDER 219.5||Top||136-132||Loss||-110||21 h 50 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Thunder UNDER 219.5
The Milwaukee Bucks have been relying on defense in the early going with injuries to Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles as all three have yet to play. Now they are without PG Jrue Holiday, which will make them even more of an UNDER team until he returns.
But the Bucks have gotten to 9-1 this season thanks to ranking 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.2 points allowed per 100 possessions. They rank just 16th in pace at 97.4 possessions per game. They are 20th in offensive efficiency. To no surprise, the UNDER is 7-3 in their 10 games this season.
Oklahoma City ranks just 26th in offensive efficiency but 5th in defensive efficiency, which has allowed them to at least be competitive. So they are a dead nuts UNDER team as well. And these teams just met on November 5th with Milwaukee winning 108-94 for 202 combined points. It should be more of the same here just four days later, especially considering familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The UNDER is 17-5 in Bucks last 22 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder last four games following a loss. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-09-22||Suns v. Wolves UNDER 226||129-117||Loss||-110||21 h 49 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Suns/Timberwolves UNDER 226
The Phoenix Suns are a dead nuts UNDER team right now. They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions. Phoenix ranks 28th in pace, averaging just 94.3 possessions per game. They are even more of an UNDER team now without Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) who is their best shooter.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are also a dead nuts UNDER team. The addition of Rudy Gobert has indeed made them a better defensive team, which is what they wanted, but it has hurt them offensively. The Timberwolves rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency but 5th in defensive efficiency.
These teams just met on November 1st with the Suns winning 116-107 for 223 combined points. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and that will be the case here in the rematch just over a week later.
The UNDER is 6-0 in Suns last six road games. The UNDER is 35-15-1 in Suns last 51 games following a loss. The UNDER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six games overall. Phoenix is 13-1 UNDER in its last 14 games following a road loss. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-09-22||Rockets v. Raptors OVER 223.5||109-116||Win||100||20 h 20 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Raptors OVER 223.5
The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 7th in pace at 99.1 possessions per game. They rank 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.7 points per 100 possessions. So this total of 223.5 is pretty low for a game involving the Rockets.
The Raptors have some good chemistry on offense as they rank 10th in offensive efficiency. They are scoring 111.9 points per game this season, while the Rockets are scoring 110.4 points per game. Houston allows 117.9 points per game and Toronto should get to 120 here to lead the way to cashing this OVER.
The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings. The Rockets and Raptors have combined for at least 228 points in four of the last five meetings with combined scores of 232, 259, 216, 233 and 228 points in the last five meetings, respectively. Both meetings last season sailed OVER the total.
The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings. The OVER is 6-1 in Raptors last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. The Rockets are coming off 246 combined points with Minnesota followed by 261 combined points with Orlando in their last two games.
Plays on the OVER on road teams with a total of 210 or higher (Houston) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG), after a combined score of 255 points or more are 31-9 (77.5%) since 1996. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-09-22||Knicks v. Nets UNDER 223.5||85-112||Win||100||20 h 19 m||Show|
15* Knicks/Nets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 223.5
The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts UNDER team without Kyrie Irving. He's one of the best scorers in the NBA and also arguably the single-worst defender. The proof is in the pudding for the Nets when he has been out due to suspension the past three games.
Indeed, the Nets combined for 214 points with the Wizards, 192 points with the Hornets and 190 points with the Mavericks in their last three games without him. In fact, the UNDER is 5-0 in Nets last five games overall. It should be more of the same here against the New York Knicks.
Tom Thibodeau has the Knicks playing defense again this season. New York ranks 15th in defensive efficiency but still struggles to score on offense. This has been a very low-scoring series with the Knicks and Nets combining for 222 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last five games vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 10-1 in Nets last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-09-22||Nuggets v. Pacers OVER 235.5||Top||122-119||Win||100||20 h 50 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Pacers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 235.5
The Indiana Pacers play at the 6th-fastest pace in the NBA this season. They will control the tempo playing at home. They are dream OVER team because they play no defense, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency allowing 114.3 points per 100 possessions.
The Nuggets will oblige in a shootout. They rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 113.8 points per 100 possessions. They rank just 20th in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.1 points per 100 possessions. The Pacers are 13th in offensive efficiency scoring 110.2 points per 100 possessions and have been even more efficient since Myles Turner returned from injury.
The Pacers have allowed at least 114 points in nine of their 10 games this season. They have scored at least 124 points in five of their 10 games. The Nuggets have scored at least 110 points in nine consecutive games. These teams combined for 243 points in their final meeting last season, and that was with Denver not having Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. healthy.
The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Indiana. The OVER is 7-1 in Nuggets last eight games following an ATS loss. The OVER is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games. Indiana is 20-6 OVER in its last 26 home games with a total of 230 or higher. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-09-22||Buffalo v. Central Michigan +110||Top||27-31||Win||110||22 h 56 m||Show|
20* MAC BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan ML +110
Central Michigan kept its bowl hopes alive with a very impressive 35-22 win at Northern Illinois last week. The Chippewas won that game despite committing four turnovers. Their got their offense going with 452 total yards, and their defense came through by holding a potent Huskies offense to just 316 total yards.
With Buffalo and Western Michigan at home and Eastern Michigan on the road to close out the season, the Chippewas really think they can run the table. They will keep their momentum today against Buffalo, which had its momentum halted last week. The Bulls had their five-game winning streak come to an end with an ugly 24-45 loss at Ohio.
I think the Bulls suffer a hangover effect here. They sit at 5-4 knowing they can clinch bowl eligibility next week with a home game against MAC bottom feeder Akron. That loss to Ohio was very concerning considering they were held to just 260 yards against a bad Ohio defense and gave up 482 total yards, getting outgained by 222 yards total.
In fact, when you look at the season-long stats, there's no way this game should be a PK. The Chipppewas should be favored by 3 at the very least. Central Michigan is outgaining opponents by 24 yards per game on the season. They average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 5.2 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by only 0-.1 yards per play.
Conversely, Buffalo is getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season. Worse yet, the Bulls average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 6.3 yards per play on defense. They are getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play despite their 5-4 record. They are very fortunate to have this record, and that's the only reason this line is a PK is because they have a better record. Central Michigan has played a tougher schedule than Buffalo, which makes these numbers even more in their favor.
Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. Buffalo is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four November games. The Chippewas are 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 Wednesday games. Bet Central Michigan on the Money Line Wednesday.
|11-08-22||Ball State +11.5 v. Toledo||Top||21-28||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +11.5
Ball State has quietly gone 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall to pull within one game of Toledo for first place in the MAC West. Now they get to play the Rockets in what is essentially the MAC West Championship game already. They are catching too many points here in a game that is likely decided by single-digits either way.
Ball State has just one loss by more than 11 points all season, and that came in the opener at Tennessee. They are getting better with each passing game and just put together their most complete performance of the season. They won 27-20 at Kent State as 7-point underdogs. They outgained Kent State 450 to 408 for the game and 6.2 to 4.5 yards per play. Holding the Golden Flashes to just 4.5 yards per play is no small feat.
Toledo is likely to be without starting QB Daquon Finn again for this game. Backup Tucker Gleason went 15-of-27 for 238 yards and three touchdowns against a bad Eastern Michigan defense last week as they snuck out with a 27-24 victory as 4-point road favorites. He is a big downgrade from Finn, and I would like Ball State at this line even if Finn plays. The Rockets lost 27-34 at Buffalo the game prior and have no business being double-digit favorites for this one.
Ball State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following an upset win as an underdog. The Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Toledo. Bet Ball State Tuesday.
|11-07-22||Seattle University -3 v. UC San Diego||Top||85-71||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
20* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle -3
Seattle went 23-9 in Chris Victor's first season with the team. Now he returns four starters as the Redhawks are absolutely loaded. That includes Cameron Tyson (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Riley Grigsby (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG). They also return three reserves that scored at least 4.2 PPG last year.
UC-San Diego looks like the worst team in the Big West this season. They went 13-16 last year and now lose leading scorer Toni Rocak (15.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) along with Jake Killingsworth (7.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG).
Seattle beat UC-San Diego 73-51 as 4-point home favorites last season. I think we are getting a discount on them as 3-point road favorites this season considering they return better talent and experience than UC-San Diego. Bet Seattle Monday.
|11-07-22||Nuggets v. Spurs +9||Top||115-109||Win||100||12 h 12 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +9
I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 101-126 loss in Denver on Saturday in which the Nuggets shot 60.9% including 15-of-29 (51.7%) from 3-point range. Their shooting of late is unsustainable.
It's also a 'buy low' spot on the Spurs after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They have been battling through injuries during this stretch but are much healthier for this game, which is going to make a big difference for them.
Plays on any team (San Antonio) - that is allowing a 50% shooting percentage or higher on the season, averaging 48 or fewer rebounds per game are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS since 1996. San Antonio is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.
Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following two consecutive wins by 10 or more points. It's time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets tonight. Roll with the Spurs Monday.
|11-07-22||UTEP v. Texas -22||57-72||Loss||-115||9 h 4 m||Show|
15* UTEP/Texas CBB ANNIHILATOR on Texas -22
Texas opens the season ranked No. 12 in the country and for good reason. Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and went 22-12 in his first season in Texas. The Longhorns should be even better this season, which is saying something considering they were one of only 10 games to rank in the Top 30 in KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings last season.
The Longhorns return Marcus Carr (11.4 PPG), Timmy Allen (12.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and CHristian Bishop (7.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) as three starters. They bring ing Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunters (11.0 PPG) who scored in double figures 20 times last season. Sir-Jabari Rice was a double-figure scorer three consecutive years at New Mexico State. Freshman Dillon Mitchell was the No. 5 ranked overall player in the 2022 class.
UTEP went 20-14 last season but loses four starters from that team. Their lone returning starters is Jamari Sibley (5.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG). They lose their two best players by far Jamal Bieniemy (14.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG), Souley Boum (19.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG). This looks like a rebuilding years in El Paso. Roll with Texas Monday.
|11-07-22||Raptors v. Bulls UNDER 222||Top||97-111||Win||100||12 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Bulls UNDER 222
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Well, the Bulls and Raptors just played yesterday in Toronto with the Raptors winning 113-104 for just 217 combined points. Now they will play a day later, this time in Chicago. This 222-point total had been set too high given the situation that favors the UNDER.
The Raptors rank 28th in the NBA in pace this season. The Bulls rank 23rd in pace. This total has been set too high based on how these teams like to play in the half court and not get out and run. It is especially too high given the situation. The Bulls are 5th in defensive efficiency while the Raptors are 8th as well.
The has been an UNDER series as well. The Raptors and Bulls have combined for 219 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Chicago. The UNDER is 7-0 in Bulls last seven Monday games. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-07-22||Blazers v. Heat UNDER 217||110-107||Push||0||11 h 20 m||Show|
15* Monday NBA Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Heat UNDER 217
Injuries are going to help us cash this UNDER between the Blazers and Heat. The Blazers are expected to be without their two leading scorers tonight in Damian Lillard (31.0 PPG) and Anfernee Simons (22.0 PPG). We saw how well that went last time out when they were held to 82 points by the Suns.
The Heat could be without Tyler Herro (19.6 PPG), who is questionable. Jimmy Butler (21.5 PPG) will return tonight but is still hobbled. The Heat managed just 99 points last time out against the Indiana Pacers, which is really poor considering Indiana plays at a fast pace and is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.
Portland ranks 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while Miami ranks 13th. Both teams rank in the middle of the pack in pace with the Blazers 17th and the Heat 15th. The Blazers will be looking to slow it down even more without Lillard and Simons.
These teams are also familiar with one another having played on October 26th with 217 combined points in the game Lillard got hurt. Portland is 25-10 UNDER in its last 35 games when revenging a same-season loss. The UNDER is 8-0 in Blazers last eight road games. The UNDER is 17-5 in Blazers last 22 games overall. The UNDER is 5-2 in Heat last seven games overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-07-22||Ravens v. Saints +4||Top||27-13||Loss||-110||189 h 0 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on New Orleans +4
The New Orleans Saints look like the best 3-5 or worse team in the NFL right now. That makes this a great opportunity to 'buy low' on them as home underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens this week. The Saints have the numbers of a 5-3 team or better, not a 3-5 team.
New Orleans ranks 4th in the NFL in total offense at 394.4 yards per game and 5th at 6.0 yards per play. The Saints rank 10th in total defense at 320.8 yards per game and 9th at 5.3 yards per play allowed. So they are actually outgaining opponents by 74 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play, which are numbers of an elite team, not one that is 3-5 on the season.
The Saints have not had turnover luck on their side this season. They have committed 16 turnovers while getting only 7 takeaways, so they are -9 in turnovers. That gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on this team because turnovers are hard to predict, and they won't keep turning it over at this rate.
Just two weeks ago the Saints gave the game away with two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in the final two minutes before halftime against the Cardinals. They still nearly won that game as they gained 494 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 168 yards. Those two picks weren't actually Andy Dalton's fault, and I like the fact that Dennis Allen stuck with him last week.
Dalton now has the full confidence of his team and his coach after guiding the Saints to a 24-0 shutout victory over the Las Vegas Raiders last week. This was as dominant as any performance we have seen all season. The Saints outgained the Raiders 367 to 183, or by 184 total yards. They let their foot off the gas in the second half on offense. Amazingly, the Raiders didn't even cross the 50-yard line on offense until the final couple minutes of the game.
The Baltimore Ravens are 5-3 but have the numbers of a 4-4 team. They rank 10th in total offense at 359.4 yards per game and 8th at 5.9 yards per play. They rank 24th in total defense allowing 364.3 yards per game and 21st at 5.7 yards per play. They are actually getting outgained by 5 yards per game and outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play.
Given the numbers of these two teams, New Orleans should be favored on a neutral field. Instead, this line of +4 indicates the Ravens would be close to -7 on a neutral field. I would be laying one of my biggest bets of the season on the Saints +7. I have already laid one of my biggest bets of the season on the Saints +4, grabbing a great opening line at Circa. I know this number has been bet down to +2.5 as I anticipated it would, but I would still lay a big bet on the Saints at that number as I think they win this game outright.
The Ravens will be missing WR Bateman and could be without TE Andrews, who was forced from last week's game with a shoulder injury. That would be two huge losses. Andrews leads the team with 42 receptions for 488 yards and five touchdowns. Batemen is third on the team with 15 receptions for 285 yards and two scores. There isn't much talent outside of these two catching the football. The Saints will be able to focus their game plan on stopping Lamar Jackson from running the football.
Plays on underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - with an incredible offense that averages 6.0 or more yards per play, after outgaining their last opponent by 150 or more total yards are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Finally, New Orleans has a bigger home-field advantage than it is getting credit for and it will be especially loud for this Monday Night Football showdown. Bet the Saints Monday.
|11-07-22||Suns v. 76ers UNDER 217||88-100||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
15* Suns/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 217
Injuries are going to help us cash this UNDER tonight. Phoenix will be without Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and could be without Cameron Payne (8.9 PPG) again. Philadelphia will be without James Harden (22.0 PPG, 10.0 APG) until December.
These teams both play a style that favors the UNDER as well. The Suns rank 18th in pace while the 76ers rank 21st. The Suns are 3rd in defensive efficiency as well. The 76ers are a much better team defensively without Harden. They will also be a much slower team to try and run their offense through Embiid now without Harden.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Suns last five road games. The UNDER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games following a loss. The UNDER is 39-19 in 76ers last 58 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last six home games. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-07-22||Pelicans -5 v. Pacers||122-129||Loss||-110||10 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -5
The New Orleans Pelicans have just one loss this season when Williamson, Ingram, McCollum and Valanciunas have been healthy at the same time. That came in overtime on the road at Atlanta on the 2nd of a back-to-back. They have been absolutely dominant otherwise.
Now I expect the Pelicans to make easy work of the Indiana Pacers, who play zero defense and won't have any answers for the offensive firepower of the Pelicans, who also play defense. The Pacers rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans rank 9th. The Pelicans rank 8th in offensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 18th.
Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) -0 off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 32-5 (86.5%) ATS since 1996. The Pelicans are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Pacers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on two days' rest. Bet the Pelicans Monday.
|11-07-22||Dartmouth v. Fordham -6||Top||74-88||Win||100||8 h 35 m||Show|
20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Fordham -6
The Fordham Rams are in a good position early in the season with all of their veteran experience returning. They bring back four starters from a team that went 16-16 last year. Kyle Neptune leaves for Villanova which is a job he earned, but Keith Urgo was Neptune's right-handed man and is ready for the job with 20 years of coaching experience at Penn State, Villanova and Fordham.
Four players who started at least 17 games last season are back, led by one of the A-10's best guards in Darius Quisenberry (16.2 PPG). I like Georgia Tech transfer Khalid Moore and 6-8 freshman Elijah Gray. PG Will Richardson and SG Noah Best will also be key contributors right away.
I'll gladly fade Dartmouth, which looks like the worst team in the Ivy League. Dartmouth went 9-16 last season and loses four starters from that team, including Brandan Barry (14.6 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) and Aaryn Rai (12.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG). This is clearly a rebuilding year for head coach David McLaughlin, who is 46-92 in his six seasons at Dartmouth. The Rams are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. Take Fordham Monday.
|11-07-22||Kent State +100 v. Northern Kentucky||79-57||Win||100||7 h 5 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Kent State ML +100
The Kent State Golden Flashes look like one of the top teams in the MAC this season. They went 23-11 last season and return four starters from that team. That includes Sincere Carry (17.9 PPG, 4.8 APG) and Malique Jacobs (12.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG). They also return their top reserves in Giovanni Santiago (8.6 PPG).
Northern Kentucky also has a decent outlook after going 20-12 last year and returning four starters as well. But I just think Kent State is the better team and the wrong team is favored. Kent State won the lone meeting two years ago 92-73 at home.
Common opponents last season also show the Golden Flashes were the better team. They went 3-0 and outscored opponents by 15.0 points per game, while Northern Kentucky went 2-2 against those same three games and only outscored them by 1.3 points per game. Kent State beat Eastern Michigan by 19 and 9 and Detroit by 17. Northern Kentucky only beat Eastern Michigan by 1, and actually lost twice to Detroit last season by 8 and 6 points. Bet Kent State on the Money Line Monday.
|11-07-22||Tennessee Tech v. Tennessee -35.5||43-75||Loss||-110||7 h 5 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Tennessee -35.5
The Tennessee Vols are ranked No. 11 in the country to start the season and for good reason. They went 27-8 last season and return four starters from that team in Santiago Vescovi (13.3 PPG), Josiah-Jordan James (10.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG), Ollvier Nkamhoua (8.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Uros Plavsic (4.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG), plus Zakai Diegler (8.8 PPG).
The Vols add in the 12th-ranked recruit in the 2022 class in Julian Phillips, a top-100 prospect in B.J. Edwards, a two-time first-team All-MVC performer in Tyreke Key from Indiana State. The Vols dominated the non-conference last season and I expect them to easily cover this 35.5-point spread in the opener.
Tennessee Tech went 11-21 last season and looks like one of the worst teams in the Ohio Valley this season. They lost all five starters from that team who all scored at least 7.8 PPG. Their leading returning scorer averaged 7.5 PPG. They had a former student manager that was pressed into action last season. The Volunteers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference home games. Take Tennessee Monday.
|11-06-22||Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers||110-102||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +3.5
The Utah Jazz have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA to start the season. Everyone thought they were tanking with the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell trades. But they had run their course, and it was time for some new faces. The Jazz got a better haul back in those trades than they are getting credit for.
That has proven to be the case with a 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS start this season with seven outright victories as underdogs. Newcomers Markkanen (22.2 PPG), Sexton (13.6 PPG), Olynyk (12.7 PPG), Beasley (10.7 PPG), Vanderbilt (9.0 PPG) and Horton-Tucker (7.0 PPG) are gelling nicely with holdovers Clarkson (17.4 PPG) and Conley (11.9 PPG, 7.4 APG).
The Los Angeles Clippers are one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season. They are 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS with their five wins coming against the Rockets (twice), Spurs, Kings and Lakers. Four of those five wins came down to the wire. The four losses all came by 8 points or more and two came to the Thunder.
So they have played one of the easiest schedules in the NBA, which makes their poor start even more concerning. The Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard and Luke Kennard tonight as well. They just aren't that good without Leonard, their best player. Wrong team favored here. Take the Jazz Sunday.
|11-06-22||Rams v. Bucs -125||13-16||Win||100||152 h 58 m||Show|
15* Rams/Bucs NFC ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay ML -125
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have gone 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. They have been through injuries and the Tom Brady divorce so they have had a ton of distractions in the first half of the season.
Getting this mini-bye week after playing on Thursday against the Ravens last week should do wonders for this team. It will give them the break mentally they need. Brady's divorce has been finalized, so hopefully he can try and put that behind him now. And the Bucs are getting some key players back from injury this week, including DL Akiem Hicks. They also could get some players back in the secondary.
The good news about this dreadful start for the Bucs is that they are only one game back in their division, so the season is not lost. I expect them to put those first eight games behind them and get back to playing up to their potential, especially this week. Adding to their motivation is they were eliminated by the Rams in the playoffs last year, so they will be out for revenge.
The Rams have been just as dreadful as the Bucs, and their problems don't appear to be fixable unlike Tampa Bay. The Rams are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS this season with their three wins coming over the Falcons, Cardinals and Panthers. All of those games were close in the 4th quarter, too.
More concerning are the four losses that have all come by double-digits. They returned from their bye last week and promptly laid an egg in a 31-14 home loss to the 49ers. They wanted revenge on the 49ers, and they showed no resiliency at all, completely folding in the 2nd half. And for whatever reason Cooper Kupp was still in the game down 17 in the final couple minutes and injured his ankle. He was hobbled badly, and though he is expected to play this week, he won't be anywhere near 100%.
While the Rams still have a solid defense, it's the offense that has been the issue. They are too predictable relying on Kupp almost exclusively to move the football. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and a very banged up one at that. Stafford just doesn't have time to throw, and he has been terrible under pressure. Allen Robinson has been a disappointment, and fellow WR Van Jefferson is battling a knee injury. TE Tyler Higbee suffered a neck injury last week and is questionable as well.
Tampa Bay still has decent numbers averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per play. The Rams are 31st averaging 4.8 yards per play on offense and 14th giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense. They are getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play.
Tampa Bay has the better offense, the better defense, home-field advantage, the revenge factor and the mini-bye week for the rest advantage. All of those factors working in their favor is worth more than this current point spread, which has them at just -125 on the money line. They should be at least -3.5, so we'll take advantage and back them at this discounted price this week. Roll with the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-06-22||Colts +6.5 v. Patriots||Top||3-26||Loss||-110||157 h 24 m||Show|
25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts +6.5
This line is an overreaction from last week's results. Indianapolis lost outright as a home favorite to the Washington Commanders, while the New England Patriots went on the road and won and covered against the New York Jets. So now this gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on the Colts, and to 'sell high' on the Patriots.
I have these teams power ranked as pretty much equals right now. Ok, give the Patriots 3 points for home-field advantage, which is generous, and this line should be Patriots -3. We are getting 3.5 points of value here to pull the trigger on the Colts based off of last week's results.
Well, last week the Colts gave Sam Ehlinger his first career start. He played as well as one could expect and I think he has a bright future. Ehlinger completed 17-of-23 passes for 201 yards without an interception, while also rushing for 15 yards. But the Commanders pulled off a miracle, erasing a 9-point deficit in the final five minutes to win 17-16 behind more heroics from Taylor Heineke.
I like that Ehlinger now has a start under his belt, and he is an upgrade from Matt Ryan, who had more turnovers than any other QB in the NFL and is too stationary. Ehlinger gives them dual-threat ability and helps mask a shaky offensive line. The Colts fired their offensive coordinator, so Frank Reich is likely to be more involved, which is a good thing. He will be a tremendous mentor for Ehlinger moving forward.
I also think this line is inflated due to the Colts being without Johnathan Taylor and trading away Nyheem Hines. Taylor has been banged up all season and has been a shell of himself. Deon Jackson will get the start, and he offers great playmaking ability in both rushing and receiving. He has 100 rushing yards and a touchdown and 14 receptions for 108 yards in limited action. The Colts also got Zack Moss in the Hines trade from Buffalo, and he's a great pass blocker and receiver. Veteran Philip Lindsay has been lifted from the practice squad to help out, too.
After getting embarrassed on Monday Night Football 14-33 as 9.5-point home favorites against the Chicago Bears two weeks ago, the Patriots came back and beat the Jets 22-17 on the road last week. But their problems aren't fixed with that one win. It was a Jets team that had just lost their top two playmakers on offense in Breece Hall and Cory Davis, so they were limited offensively.
Yet the Jets still outgained the Patriots 387 to 288 and arguably should have won. The difference was a pick-6 that Mac Jones threw that was called back on a roughing the passer penalty. The roughing had nothing to do with the pick, and the Patriots were bailed out on yet another terrible throw by Jones. He just isn't very good and seems to have INT's dropped every week. Jones and the Patriots cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number against a team the quality of the Colts.
Yards per play and strength of schedule are two of my favorite things to look for in the NFL when comparing teams. Well, Indianapolis is only getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play this season, averaging 5.1 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.2 yards per play on defense. The Patriots are similar, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense to break even. These are both basically average teams, which is why I have them power rated the same. The Patriots have played the 25th-ranked schedule while the Colts have played the 20th.
Indianapolis is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons. The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. AFC East opponents. Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cove the spread in two of its last three games. These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Colts. Bet the Colts Sunday.
|11-06-22||Packers v. Lions +3.5||Top||9-15||Win||100||149 h 38 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +3.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week. They have lost five consecutive games while going 0-4 ATS in their last four. But they will have no problem getting back up off the mat this week to face their hated division rival in the Green Bay Packers. It's the perfect opponent for them to bring out their 'A' game against.
It's easy to see how the Lions are undervalued this week. Consider that they were 3.5-point home underdogs to the Dolphins last week, and now are identical 3.5-point home dogs to the Packers this week. Well, I have Miami as a Top 10 team, and Green Bay as a below average team in their current state. This line cannot be the same as it was last week against Miami.
The Packers are getting some love because they finally ended their own 0-4 ATS skid with a fortune cover as 10.5-point dogs last week at Buffalo in a 10-point loss. They trailed by 17 most the game and never really sniffed winning it. Their problems aren't fixed. The Packers are 0-4 SU in their last four games overall with upset losses to the Giants, Jets and Commanders.
The problems that still exist for the Packers is that they are banged up along the offensive line and at receiver and just don't have many weapons for Aaron Rodgers. It has been a dink and dunk offense all season as they are very predictable and easy to contain, even for a defense as bad as this Detroit stop unit. Allen Lazard and Christian Watson may be back this week, but both are questionable, and they are still without Randall Cobb. They lost a couple more players to injury on defense last week and three key LB's in Campbell, Smith and Barnes are all questionable.
I was on the Lions +3.5 last week and it was a tough loss because they scored 27 points in the first half and got shut out after intermission to lose by 4 to the Dolphins. But this is a different team now than the one the previous few weeks that was banged up. WR St. Brown and RB Swift are back healthy and playing. Their offense is dynamic with all these playmakers, and they will never be out of this game because of it. This Green Bay offense in its current state isn't capable of getting separation either. This just has the makings of a gritty divisional showdown that is decided by a FG either way, so getting +3.5 with the Lions at home is a great value.
The Lions are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings at Ford Field. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Green Bay) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in November games are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Lions Sunday.
|11-06-22||Dolphins v. Bears OVER 45.5||Top||35-32||Win||100||50 h 34 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/Bears OVER 45.5
This Miami offense is absolutely explosive when healthy. That has been evident when Tua has been in the lineup. In fact, the Dolphins are 5-0 in games in which Tua has started and finished and have scored 26.0 points per game in those five games. They will have their way with this soft Chicago defense this week.
Chicago just gave up 49 points to the Dallas Cowboys last week. They traded away Robert Quinn last week and now traded away Roquan Smith this week. Those are arguably their two best players on defense and certainly their two biggest leaders in the locker room. Chicago already had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and it is going to be even worse moving forward.
But the Bears are improving rapidly on offense. After scoring 33 points on the Patriots two weeks ago, they came back with 29 more points this week. They are playing to their strengths, which is using Fields' legs and the one-two punch of Montgomery and Herbert on the ground. They have rushed for at least 238 yards in three consecutive games, and Fields is getting more efficient as a passer.
Reinforcements are on the way this week for this Chicago offense as well as they traded for WR Chase Claypool of the Steelers to give Fields another weapon. They should be able to pick apart this Miami defense, which has injuries all of their secondary. The Lions were able to score 27 points on the Dolphins last week in the first half alone and finished with 311 passing yards. And we saw what a mobile QB could do to the Dolphins earlier this season when Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to 38 points and 473 total yards against them, including 155 rushing.
The only thing holding me back from pulling the trigger on this total was the forecast, which called for a chance of rain and heavy winds earlier this week. But that forecast has since cleared up and there will be no rain in Chicago, temps in the 50's and only 10-15 MPH winds. It should be good scoring conditions for this two improving offenses and declining defenses.
Miami ranks 26th in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense while Chicago ranks 22nd allowing 5.7 yards per play. Miami ranks 3rd in the NFL averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense, which is very impressive considering Tua has only started and finished five of their eight games. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-05-22||Blazers v. Suns UNDER 216.5||82-102||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
15* Blazers/Suns NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216.5
I love this spot for an UNDER bet. Portland and Phoenix just played last night with the Blazers pulling the 108-106 upset for 114 combined points. Now the books have set the total at 216.5 points for the rematch. Familiarity favors defense and UNDERS, and both teams are tired so they won't be looking to push the tempo.
These teams don't like pushing the tempo, anyway. Phoenix ranks 26th in the NBA in pace while Portland ranks 23rd. Both teams have also been good defensively this season as the Suns rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Blazers rank 12th.
Injuries to both teams will also help aid us in cashing this UNDER. Portland is already without Damian Lillard (31.0 PPG) and could be without Anfernee Simons (22.0 PPG) tonight, their two best players and franchise pieces. Phoenix could be without both Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (8.9 PPG), two key weapons for them on offense. All three of those guys are questionable.
The UNDER is 7-0 in Blazers last seven road games. The UNDER is 16-5 in Blazers last 21 games overall. The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Suns last 51 games following a loss. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|11-05-22||Thunder +8 v. Bucks||94-108||Loss||-110||7 h 7 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +8
It's time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks. They are the last undefeated team in the NBA at not only 8-0 SU, but 7-1 ATS. There has been a discount on the Bucks this season because they are missing three key players, which is part of the reason for their ATS success. But there is no discount tonight.
You're asked to lay 8 points on a Bucks team that is in the worst spot they have been all season. The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA. Being short-handed adds to the difficult spot as this is a very tired team right now.
The Thunder are 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS this season with all four losses coming by 12 points or fewer, so they have been competitive in every game. They have also faced a much more difficult schedule than the Bucks have so they are battle-tested. They have outright upset wins over the Clippers (twice) and the Mavericks. They also took the Nuggets to the wire twice and the Timberwolves to the wire twice.
Oklahoma City is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games overall. They are consistently catching too many points on the road over the past couple seasons, and that is the case again tonight given the terrible rest spot for the Bucks. Take the Thunder Saturday.
|11-05-22||Wake Forest v. NC State OVER 54||21-30||Loss||-110||68 h 0 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest/NC State OVER 54
Wake Forest has one of the best offenses in the country. The Demon Deacons are scoring 38.9 points per game this season. But they are coming off a 10-point effort at Louisville that was due to committing eight turnovers that is keeping this total lower than it should be. We'll take advantage and back the OVER in what has been a high-scoring head-to-head series.
This total has also been set lower than it should be because NC State has disappointed on offense this season, averaging just 26.8 points per game. Of course, they weren't very good even before QB Devin Leary suffered a season-ending injury. They were even worse with backup Jack Chambers.
But I think the Wolf Pack have found something in third-stringer MJ Morris. He replaced Chambers against Virginia Tech last week and went 20-of-29 passing for 265 yards and three touchdowns in his first significant action. I think Morris has injected some new life into this offense, and they are primed for one of their best offensive performances of the season against this suspect Wake Forest defense this week.
As I mentioned, this has been an OVER series. The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings with NC State winning 45-42 two years ago for 87 combined points. Last year, Wake Forest returned the favor with a 45-42 victory for 87 combined points again. Now we just need 55-plus to cash this OVER 54. That shouldn't be a problem with the forecast looking pretty good Saturday with temperatures in the 70's and 4 MPH winds and only a slight chance of rain. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-05-22||Phillies +134 v. Astros||1-4||Loss||-100||7 h 59 m||Show|
15* Phillies/Astros World Series ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +134
I expect the Philadelphia Phillies to bounce back from two consecutive losses to force a Game 7 tonight. This line is out of whack and should be much closer to even money. The Phillies have the advantage on the mound and their best starter going tonight in Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler is 13-9 with a 2.80 ERA and 0.987 WHIP In 31 starts this season. He has allowed just 10 earned runs in 45 1/3 innings in his last eight starts for a 1.99 ERA. Framber Valdez has allowed 13 earned runs in 34 2/3 innings in his last six starts for a 3.37 ERA.
The Phillies are 7-0 in their last seven games following an off day. Houston is 2-7 in its last nine World Series home games. The hardest game to win is the close out game, and I expect the Astros to be the ones feeling more pressure tonight. Roll with the Phillies in Game 6 Saturday.
|11-05-22||Pelicans +110 v. Hawks||Top||121-124||Loss||-100||7 h 37 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans ML +110
Brandon Ingram (23.0 PPG), Zion Williamson (21.7 PPG), C.J. McCollum (20.6 PPG), Jonas Valanciunas (14.6 PPG) and Trey Murphy III (14.0 PPG) is one of the best starting lineups in the NBA. When these five have all been healthy at the same time this season, the Pelicans have dominated. I'll gladly back them as underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks tonight to pull the upset.
The Hawks are 5-3 but have taken advantage of a very easy schedule. Their five wins have come against Houston, Orlando, Detroit (twice) and New York. They lost by 17 to Charlotte, by 8 at Milwaukee and by 30 at Toronto. They are without Bogdan Bogdanovic and Trey Young is questionable tonight with an eye abrasion. Whether he plays or not, the Pelicans are the better team in this game.
The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Atlanta is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Atlanta is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 games following an upset win as an underdog. Bet the Pelicans on the Money Line Saturday.
|11-05-22||James Madison +7.5 v. Louisville||Top||10-34||Loss||-110||67 h 30 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on James Madison +7.5
James Madison opened 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with four wins by 22 or more points and an upset win at Appalachian State. But they have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games overall, and it's time to jump back on them. They committed nine turnovers in the losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall, which was the difference.
Now the Dukes will regroup and have had two full weeks to prepare for Louisville. They will relish in this opportunity to face a Power 5 team and this is basically their National Championship Game since they can't qualify for a bowl in their first season as an FBS school.
The Dukes lost QB Todd Canteio in their loss to Georgia Southern. He sat out the loss to Marshall and backup Billy Atkins threw four interceptions to cost them the game. Well, Canteio should be back this week especially now that he has had an extra week to recover with the bye.
The Dukes have elite numbers this season. They average 481 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 297 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense. They are outscoring opponents by 18 points per game, outgaining them by 186 yards per game and outgaining them by 1.4 yards per play.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Louisville. The Cardinals are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games and I have backed them in their last two victories over Pittsburgh and Wake Forest. Of course, all three of those teams handed Louisville victories on a silver platter by committing a combined 15 turnovers. So Louisville is +11 in turnovers in its last three games, which is unsustainable. Wake Forest committed eight alone against them last week.
This is the ultimate letdown spot for Louisville, too. They are coming off that upset win against a ranked Wake Forest team, and now they have a Top 10 showdown with Clemson on deck next week. That makes this a sandwich spot for them. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat James Madison in this non-conference game as they are to beat teams like Wake Forest and Clemson.
Plays on road teams (James Madison) - with an excellent offense that averages 6.1 or more yards per play, after gaining 3.75 or fewer yards per play in their previous game are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS since 1992. Coming off their worst offensive performance of the season with a backup QB and off a bye week, this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Dukes this week. Bet James Madison Saturday.
|11-05-22||Arizona +17.5 v. Utah||20-45||Loss||-110||67 h 26 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona +17.5
The Arizona Wildcats are 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS this season. They have been competitive even in losses. They hung with Washington in a 39-49 loss as 14.5-point road dogs three weeks ago. Then they returned from their bye and gave USC a run for its money, losing 37-45 as 14-point home dogs. Now the Wildcats will hang with Utah as 17.5-point road dogs this week.
Arizona is never out of any game due to their explosive offense. The Wildcats are scoring 32.3 points per game, averaging 479 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. Those are even better numbers than Utah this season. They do have a suspect defense, but Utah has also taken a step back defensively this season.
The Utes have so many injuries right now to where they cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number. Starting QB Cam Rising was a late scratch against Washington State last week, and the Utes were fortunate to win that game 21-17. Star TE Dalton Kincaid suffered a shoulder injury in that game and was seen in a sling on the sidelines late. It's unlikely he will play this week. They are also down to a third-string RB.
The good news is I like the Wildcats regardless of whether or not any of these guys play. But if they are out it would be an added bonus. Rising is completing 68.8% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 309 yards and six scores. Kincaid leads the team in receiving with 46 receptions for 614 yards and seven scores. Tavion Thomas leads the team in rushing with 414 yards and six scores. All three are questionable for this contest.
The Wildcats are never going to be out of this game with Jayden de Laura at quarterback. He is quietly having one of the best seasons in all of college football. He is completing 62.9% of his passes for 2,654 yards with a 22-to-8 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 125 yards and a score.
Last year, Utah only beat Arizona 38-29 as 23.5-point road favorites. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Bet Arizona Saturday.
|11-05-22||Texas -2.5 v. Kansas State||34-27||Win||100||67 h 5 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -2.5
I love the spot for the Texas Longhorns this week. They are coming off their bye week and still have their sights set on a Big 12 title despite being 5-3 this season. They are very close to being 8-0 as their three losses came by 1 to Alabama, by 3 to Texas Tech and by 7 to Oklahoma State. They arguably should have won all three games.
The Longhorns have elite numbers this season despite facing the 10th-toughest schedule in the country. They are averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and only allowing 4.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play. They still have a chance to win the Big 12 title with a win this week against Kansas State and a win next week against TCU.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Kansas State off their 48-0 win over Okahoma State last week where everything went their way. The Wildcats have faced the easier schedule and do have great numbers with 6.3 yards per play on offense and 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play. But their numbers still are far behind those of Texas.
I love the matchup for Texas this week. The key to stopping the Wildcats is stopping their rushing attack, which averages 228 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. The strength of this Texas defense is stopping the run as they rank Top 20 in the country. They allow just 122 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry this season.
TCU racked up 38 points and nearly 500 total yards on this Kansas State defense two weeks ago. Texas can do the same. The Longhorns average 36.4 points per game and 446 yards per game. They have great balance with 184 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game.
Steve Sarkisian is 19-8 ATS following a road loss as a head coach. Sarkisian is 19-6 ATS after allowing 37 or more points last game as a head coach. Sarkisian has had two weeks to prepare to stop this Kansas State rushing attack, and I expect he has put it to good use. The Longhorns are the better team in the better spot, so laying only 2.5 points with them this week is a discount. Roll with Texas Saturday.
|11-05-22||UNLV +6.5 v. San Diego State||10-14||Win||100||67 h 54 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +6.5
I love the spot for the UNLV Rebels this week. After jumping out to a surprising 4-1 start this season with their lone loss coming by 6 points at Cal, the Rebels have gone 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall. A big step up in class has been a big reason for their struggles with losses to San Jose State, Air Force and Notre Dame. Now they take a step back down in class this week against San Diego State.
But the biggest reason for their struggles was the injury to QB Doug Brumfield. He got injured in the first quarter of that loss to San Jose State. So he has basically missed 11 straight quarters, which just so happen to be UNLV's worst stretch of football this season. Brumfield is completing 68.4% of his passes for 1,231 yards with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 137 yards and five scores in basically just five games of action.
Reinforcements are on the way for UNLV this week coming off a bye, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for San Diego State. On Monday, Rebels coach Marcus Arroyo announced that Brumfield will return to practice this week and was listed as UNLV's starter on the depth chart.
"We spent last week, our bye week, really trying to get healthy and recharge our batteries," Arroyo said. "Having him on the field gives us that swag that we need when we play as an offense," junior center Leif Fautanu said. "Having him on the field at practice just gives everyone more motivation."
While the spot is a great one for UNLV off a bye and getting Brumfield back, the spot is a terrible one for San Diego State. They are coming off a 28-32 loss at Fresno State in which they allowed two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds to blow the game. That's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice, especially for an Aztecs team that is having a down year already at 4-4 this season.
UNLV still has impressive season-long numbers despite playing three games without Brumfield, and they would be even better had he not basically missed three games. They are gaining 5.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.1 yards per play. Compare that to San Diego State, which averages 5.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.5 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.4 yards per play.
San Diego State's four wins have come over Nevada, Hawaii (by 2), Toledo (by 3) and Idaho State. They have failed every time they have taken a step up in class. They cannot be trusted to win this game by a touchdown or more this week.
The Rebels are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. UNLV is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 road games. The Rebels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Saturday games. Take UNLV Saturday.
|11-05-22||Liberty +13.5 v. Arkansas||Top||21-19||Win||100||64 h 56 m||Show|
20* Liberty/Arkansas Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Liberty +13.5
Hugh Freeze is the best covering coach in all of college football. He is 74-45 ATS in all games as a head coach. What he has done at Liberty the last three years is nothing short of remarkable. He has gone 25-7 SU in 32 games at Liberty over the last three seasons. That includes 7-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming at Wake Forest by a single points, 37-36.
What makes this season so remarkable is that the Flames have gone through four different starting quarterbacks. It hasn't mattered who has been under center. Johnathan Bennett has taken over the reigns and ran with the job. He just completed 24-of-29 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 46 yards on eight carries in a 41-14 upset win over BYU last time out.
Now the Flames have had two full weeks to get ready for Arkansas. They are looking at this game against an SEC opponent as their National Championship Game. Arkansas is coming off a win at Auburn, which led the firing of Auburn's head coach. They have an even bigger game on deck against LSU. That makes this a sandwich spot for the Razorbacks. They won't be motivated enough to win this game by two touchdowns, which is what it's going to take to beat us.
In fact, Liberty has just 3 losses by more than 13 points in their last 43 games under Hugh Freeze. That makes for a 40-3 system backing the Flames pertaining to this 13.5-point spread. They do have a common opponent in BYU, which Arkansas beat by 17 while Liberty beat the Cougars by 27. Liberty outgained BYU by 289 yards while Arkansas outgained them by 173 yards.
Liberty is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after a game where they forced zero turnovers. The Flames are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs. The Razorbacks are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Roll with Liberty Saturday.
|11-05-22||Tennessee +9 v. Georgia||Top||13-27||Loss||-110||136 h 42 m||Show|
20* Tennessee/Georgia CBS No-Brainer on Tennessee +9
A few years back nobody gave LSU a chance and they went on to win the national title. That feels the same with this Tennessee team. The Vols also have eerily similar numbers to that Tigers team. They have been grossly undervalued all season, and they continue to be this week catching more than a touchdown to Georgia.
The Vols beat LSU by 27 on the road, upset Alabama at home and crushed Kentucky 44-6 last week in what was perceived to be a lookahead spot with Georgia on deck. They way they handled that game holding the Wildcats to just 206 total yards and outgaining them by 216 yards showed a lot about the character of this team. They want to win a National Championship and aren't letting anything get in their way.
The Vols average 49.4 points, 553 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play. Hendon Hooker now has a 52-to-4 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons. He is every bit as good as Joe Burrow was in college, but he doesn't get the credit that Burrow did. He is also more of a dual-threat than Burrow was, which makes him so tough to stop. Amazingly, the Vols have done this without two of their biggest weapons for half the season, and both are back healthy on offense now.
While the offense gets all the headlines, this Tennessee defense has been just as big a factor. They are holding opponents to just 21.0 points per game, 394 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play. And they have faced a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses than Georgia has. This will easily be the toughest test of the season for this Georgia defense. After all, Tennessee scored 52 points on Alabama's vaunted defense.
Georgia did beat Oregon in the opener, but that was a way different Oregon team than the one we are seeing today. The last seven wins have come against such a soft schedule of Samford, South Carolina, Kent State, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Florida. Not one of those teams is a shoe-in to even make a bowl game. And they only beat Kent State by 17 as 45-point favorites and Missouri by 4 as 31-point favorites, so they are clearly vulnerable.
Georgia is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game. The Bulldogs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better. The Vols are 7-1 ATS this season.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after gaining 525 or more yards per game in their last three games against an opponent that outgained their last opponent by 125 or more yards are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with Tennessee Saturday.
|11-05-22||Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5||Top||35-28||Loss||-110||64 h 34 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis +3.5
I love the spot for the Memphis Tigers this week. They are coming off a bye week and it came at the perfect time as they were reeling from three consecutive losses in games they easily could have won. Now they can regroup and get back up off the mat to face the favorite to win the AAC in UCF this week.
Houston pulled a miracle three games ago to beat Memphis, scoring two touchdowns in the final two minutes to win 33-32. Memphis then lost in quadruple OT at ECU 45-47 despite outgaining them by 18 yards. And last time out they lost 28-38 at Tulane despite outgaining them by 71 yards. Memphis could easily be 7-1 instead of 4-4, and if they were they wouldn't be catching 3.5 points to UCF at home off a buy week. This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Tigers as a result.
The spot is a terrible one for UCF. They are in the ultimate letdown and sandwich spot this week. They are coming off a huge 25-21 win over Cincinnati last week, the favorite coming into the season to win the AAC after making the four-team playoff last year. Now they have an even bigger game at Tulane on deck next week that could decide the conference. That makes this a letdown and sandwich spot if I've ever seen one.
UCF has benefited from a home-heavy schedule playing six of their first eight games at home. They finish with three of four on the road. They clearly aren't as good on the road as they did beat FAU before falling 34-13 at East Carolina. That gives these teams a common opponent as Memphis took ECU to OT on the road and should have won.
I love the matchup for Memphis. The Tigers are a pass-heavy team that averages 285 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt. The weakness of UCF is their pass D as they have allowed 298 or more passing yards in four of their last five games. They allowed 314 passing yards to Georgia Tech, 363 to SMU, 234 to lowly Temple, 311 to ECU and 298 to Cincinnati.
UCF starting QB John Rhys Plumlee was forced from the Cincinnati game and may not play this week. He is their leading rusher with 518 yards, seven touchdowns and 4.8 per carry on the ground. The Knights won't be nearly as balanced offensively if he can't go this week. But I like Memphis either way in this one. They have a huge home-field advantage and are 3-1 at home this season with the lone setback being that fluke 1-point loss to Houston.
Memphis is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game. The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following two or more consecutive road losses. Memphis 9-1 ATS following three consecutive conference losses. The KNicks are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 conference games. The Tigers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games following a bye week. The home team is 11-0 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bet Memphis Saturday.
|11-05-22||UTSA v. UAB +105||Top||44-38||Loss||-100||63 h 27 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UAB ML +105
The UAB Blazers are so much better than their 4-4 record would indicate. Two of their losses were due to losing starting QB Dylan Hopkins, who should be back this week. He means everything to this offense, completing 67.2% of his passes for 1,233 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 115 yards and two scores.
The Blazers have the numbers of a 7-1 team rather than a 4-4 team. They three games they were outgained came by 35 yards to Liberty, by 5 yards to Georgia Southern and by 28 yards to Western Kentucky. They still outgained FAU by 113 yards last week despite losing. They average 438 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense, while giving up just 329 yards per game and 5.0 per play on defense. They are outgaining teams by 109 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play, which are elite numbers.
UTSA is 6-2 but only outgaining opponents by 71 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play. UAB is the better team, yet they are the home underdog in this game due to the records of these teams. The Blazers will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face the defending C-USA champs this week. They are looking at this game as their National Championship.
UAB also wants revenge from a 31-34 road loss at UTSA as 3.5-point dogs last season. They outgained UTSA 474 to 375 in that game, or by 99 yards. Two years ago they won 21-13 at home, and home-field advantage has been huge in this series. The Blazers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 28.5 points per game.
UAB is 38-12 ATS in its last 50 games following a two-game road trip. The Blazers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following two consecutive road losses. UAB is 28-12 ATS in its last 40 games as a home underdog. The Roadrunners are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win. The Blazers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss. Take UAB on the Money Line Saturday.
|11-05-22||New Mexico +16.5 v. Utah State||10-27||Loss||-110||63 h 24 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico +16.5
Utah State has been way overvalued this season after winning the Mountain West last season. They have opened 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in 2022 to follow up their title. QB Logan Bonner lost all of his weapons from that team, and then Bonner went down with a season-ending injury. The Aggies are down to a 4th string QB right now. They continue to be overvalued as 16.5-point favorites over New Mexico this week.
But the main reason for this handicap is the forecast. There is a 100% chance of rain Saturday in Logan, Utah with 20 MPH winds expected. That means this game is going to be played on the ground, and points are going to be at a premium. The ground game favors New Mexico in this one because they cannot throw the ball effectively.
New Mexico has rushed for 128 yards per game this season and will be able to move the ball on the ground against a Utah State defense that allows 205 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. The Aggies just allowed 330 rushing yards to Wyoming last time out and 265 to Air Force two games back.
Conversely, New Mexico has the better defense, especially against the run. The Lobos only allow 24.9 points per game, 352 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play. They are giving up just 136 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. They will get enough stops to stay within this number Saturday. Four of their six losses this season have come by 17 points or fewer.
Utah State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after scoring 14 points or fewer in its previous game. Utah State's three wins this season have come against UConn by 11, Air Force by 7 and Colorado State by 4. They haven't won by this kind of margin yet, and they aren't equipped to given their QB situation and the forecast. Take New Mexico Saturday.
|11-05-22||Middle Tennessee State -2 v. Louisiana Tech||24-40||Loss||-110||63 h 53 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Middle Tennessee -2
I love the spot for Middle Tennessee this week. They just had a bye two weeks ago before winning 24-13 at UTEP last week. They outgained the Miners by 86 yards in that game and improved to 4-4 on the season. They have an excellent chance to make a bowl game and a much better outlook than Louisiana Tech right now.
The Bulldogs sit at 2-6 this season after back-to-back OT losses to Rice (41-42) and Florida International (34-42). They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after those two defeats that are going to surely cost them a bowl game. Their outlook the rest of the season is gloomy, and I find it hard to see them putting much effort forth the rest the season, but especially this week.
This is a tired Louisiana Tech team as it is playing four consecutive shootouts the last four weeks against UTEP, North Texas, Rice and FIU. They keep getting in shootouts because they cannot stop anyone. The Bulldogs have one of the worst defenses in the country, allowing 39.6 points per game, 476.4 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.
And that's the difference between these two teams. Middle Tennessee acutally played defense. They are holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.7 yards per play, holding opponents to 0.2 yards per play below their season averages. They will score at will on this LA Tech defense, while also getting enough stops to win this game.
These teams have a common opponent in UTEP, and that's important because both teams were coming off a bye week when they faced the Miners. Middle Tennessee put up 378 yards and 6.1 yards per play on UTEP, while allowing 292 yards and 4.2 yards per play. The Blue Raiders outgained the Miners by 86 yards and 1.9 yards per play. LA Tech gained 380 yards and 6.3 per play while giving up 501 yards and 5.6 per play to UTEP. They were outgained by 121 yards by the Miners.
Plays against home underdogs (Louisiana Tech) - a horrible scoring defense allowing 35 or more points per game, after scoring 31 points or more in two consecutive games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Blue Raiders are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Bulldogs are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss. Bet Middle Tennessee Saturday.
|11-04-22||Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 55.5||Top||21-24||Win||100||75 h 54 m||Show|
20* Oregon State/Washington ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 55.5
This play is mostly due to the weather expected in Washington Friday night. There is a 100% chance of rain with winds approaching 20 MPH. That sets this up for an UNDER game with points at a premium. Both teams will be forced to try to move the football on the ground in this one, which will keep the clock moving as well.
Oregon State already has a run-heavy approach averaging 39 rush attempts per game compared to just 27 passing. So they will be in their comfort zone. The problem is they'll be up against one of the best run defenses in the Pac-12. Washington only allows 110 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, holding opponents to 34 rushing yards per game and 1.0 per carry less than their season averages. So Oregon State's offensive strength is also Washington's defensive strength.
Washington averages 44 pass attempts per game and only 32 rushing attempts. That's probably because they are a poor rushing offense anyway, averaging just 130 yards per game and 4.0 per carry, averaging 33 rushing yards per game and 0.5 per carry less than their opponents typically allow. They will have to run the ball, and they will be up against a stout Oregon State run defense that allows 120 rushing yards per game. The Beavers are also pretty good against the pass, holding opponents to 55.6% completions and 231 passing yards per game. They held USC's high-powered attack to just 17 points and 359 total yards a few weeks ago.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Three straight and four of the last five meetings between Washington and Oregon State have seen 51 or fewer combined points. They have combined for 51, 48, 26 and 49 points in four of the five meetings. It should be more of the same in this 2022 meeting, especially because of the weather and both teams' defensive strengths being the strengths of the opposing offenses.
Both teams are coming off a bye week so they have had two full weeks to prepare to shut down these offenses. That extra time favors the defenses. The UNDER is 20-7 in Huskies last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 points (Washington) - after winning two of its last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 75-35 (68.2%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-04-22||Warriors v. Pelicans -4||Top||105-114||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4
The New Orleans Pelicans get Brandon Ingram back from a concussion tonight and are back to full strength. Zion Williams missed a couple games earlier this season. When Ingram (22.0 PPG), Williamson (22.8 PPG), McCollum (20.7 PPG) and Valanciunas (15.6 PPG) are on the floor at the same time, this Pelicans team is a title contender.
Now they will want to prove that tonight by taking down the defending champion Golden State Warriors. They are in a great spot to do it as the Pelicans had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days. They are not only healthy, but rested and ready to go tonight.
The same cannot be said for the Warriors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a 129-130 upset loss in Orlando last night. The Warriors are now 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season and the most disappointing team in the NBA. They have simply quit playing defense this season and are in the midst of a championship hangover that won't end tonight given the terrible spot for them. The Warriors are allowing 122.2 points per game and 47.4% shooting.
The Pelicans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. New Orleans is also 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss. Roll with the Pelicans Friday.
|11-04-22||Raptors +3.5 v. Mavs||110-111||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors +3.5
The Toronto Raptors are flying under the radar this season. They didn't make any offseason moves of note and kept their core together. That core is better than it gets credit for, and the Raptors have a lot of chemistry to start the season as a result.
They have opened 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS with two of their losses coming by 3 and 4 points. Their lone blowout loss came to Philadelphia after beating the 76ers two days prior, which is understandable in that flat spot. The Raptors have been without Fred VanVleet in their last two games, and it hasn't matter as they crushed Atlanta 139-109 and San Antonio 143-100.
Now the Raptors are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days and may get VanVleet back tonight. They take on a Mavericks team that has been overvalued of late going 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They were upset by the Thunder as 10.5-point home favorites, needed a late run to beat the Magic by 9 as 9.5-point home favorites and needed a late run to beat the Jazz by 3 as 6.5-point home favorites. If those three teams are hanging around with them, I like Toronto's chances of winning this game outright.
The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Mavericks. They have great length to be able to defend Luka Doncic about as well as anyone in the NBA can. Toronto is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. Toronto is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games following two or more consecutive wins. Take the Raptors Friday.
|11-04-22||Heat v. Pacers +3.5||Top||99-101||Win||100||8 h 3 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +3.5
The Indiana Pacers are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with upset road wins over the Nets and Wizards while also covering in a 7-point loss in a rematch with Brooklyn. Now they have had the last three days off to get their chemistry even better heading into this showdown with the Miami Heat.
Meanwhile, the Heat will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 9th game in 15 days, which is about as difficult a spot as you will see in the NBA. The Heat are already struggling going just 4-5 SU despite playing six of their first nine games at home. They are just 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS on the road.
This tough schedule to start the season has the Heat already battling injuries. They will be without Jimmy Butler tonight, and Bam Adebayo is questionable with a knee injury, so they could be without their two best players. The Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and on three days' rest.
The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win. Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Take the Pacers Friday.
|11-04-22||Nets v. Wizards -3||128-86||Loss||-105||8 h 49 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -3
The Washington Wizards are fully healthy right now and starting to form some chemistry between Beal, Porzingis, Kuzma, Morris and Barton. They are coming off a 121-111 road win at Philadelphia and I like their chances of crushing the Brooklyn Nets tonight.
Speaking of chemistry, the Nets have none of it. Brooklyn is 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS to start the season with the two wins coming at home over the Pacers by 7 and the Raptors by 4. Five of their six losses have come by 9 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive.
It has gotten worse before it's going to get better. The Nets fired head coach Steve Nash, and Durant was stunned by the move. Now Kyrie Irving has been suspended for doing Irving things. And Ben Simmons, who was supposed to be their savior, is out with a knee injury. I don't see any way the Nets can even be competitive tonight with Durant and a bunch of scrubs around him.
The Nets are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Washington is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Brooklyn. The Nets are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. Washington should be a bigger home favorite over the hapless Nets tonight. Bet the Wizards Friday.
|11-03-22||Eagles -13.5 v. Texans||29-17||Loss||-116||50 h 39 m||Show|
15* Eagles/Texans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia -13.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are a freight train. They are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS with three wins by 16 or more points. They are outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per game, outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game and by 1.1 yards per play. They made some moves prior to the deadline to get even stronger. And they are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now.
Now the Eagles face the worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans. Houston is getting outgained by 115 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play. No. 1 receiver Brandon Cooks wants traded and may not play. No. 2 receiver Nico Collins is out with a groin injury. And their best defensive player in DL Maliek Collins is out for this game. And that's just the start of it as they have one of the longest injury reports in the NFL.
Last week the Texans knew the Titans were going to run the football and they still couldn't stop it. Tennessee went with backup Malik Willis instead of Ryan Tannehill and he threw 10 times. The Titans ran it 45 times for 314 yards on this soft Houston run defense. Well, now they are going to face another elite rushing offense in the Eagles who average 150 rushing yards per game. But they are dynamic and multi-dimensional unlike Tennessee. They also throw for 246 yards per game.
The Eagles are going to be able to move the football at will and continue to score in this game, and the Texans just aren't going to be able to catch up. They average just 16.6 points per game and 289 yards per game on offense. Davis Mills has taken a step back this year, and it's not getting any easier for him this week without WR Collins and possibly Cooks. Even if Cooks plays he probably won't be fully into this game. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Eagles Thursday.
|11-03-22||Nuggets v. Thunder +7||Top||122-110||Loss||-110||18 h 9 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Thunder NBA TV No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the single-most underrated team in the NBA. They did it last season by being the best covering team in the league despite a poor record. And they're doing it again this season, opening 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS while consistently catching too many points.
The Thunder were competitive in their three losses falling by 7 as 11-point dogs at Minnesota, by 5 as 9-point dogs at Denver and by 10 as 9.5-point home dogs to Minnesota. They have won four straight since with three outright upsets over the Clippers by 14 as 5.5-point dogs, the Clippers by 8 as 7-point dogs and the Mavericks by 6 as 10.5-point dogs. They also beat the Magic by 8 as 3.5-point favorites.
As I stated, the Thunder only lost by 5 as 9-point dogs at Denver. Now they'll be out for revenge on the Nuggets and are catching 7 points at home in the rematch. That's not a big enough adjustment for home-court advantage, especially with the way the Thunder are playing right now. Plus they are expected to get Josh Giddey (12.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 6.3 APG) back after missing the past three games.
The Nuggets are trying to find chemistry getting both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury this season. It has been a shaky start with the Nuggets going 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS including a 21-point loss at Utah, a 25-point loss at Portland and an 11-point loss to the Lakers as they are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games. Murray is only averaging 13.8 points per game and shooting 41.5% from the field so he has been a shell of his former self.
The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Nuggets with losses by 5, 6 and 4 points along with two outright upsets by 12 and 14 points. Oklahoma City is 35-14-3 ATS in its last 52 games following an ATS win. The Thunder are 13-1 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons. Roll with the Thunder Thursday.
|11-03-22||Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina||Top||28-35||Loss||-110||48 h 49 m||Show|
20* Appalachian State/Coastal Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on Appalachian State -3
Appalachian State has played the much tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and that's the big difference in their records this season. The Mountaineers are 5-3 this season and underrated because of it. Their three losses came to UNC by 2, James Madison by 4 and Texas State by 12 in a misleading final in which they outgained the Bobcats by 102 yards.
The Mountaineers have come back with two dominant efforts since that defeat. They beat Georgia State 42-17 as a 9.5-point favorite while outgaining them by 165 yards and holding them to a season low in yardage. Then they crushed Robert Morris 42-3 and outgained them by 364 yards while holding them to a season low in total yards. Coming off an easy effort their, the Mountaineers should still be fresh on this short week, which is a big advantage.
Coastal Carolina is 7-1 but nowhere near as good as that record. The seven wins have come against Army, Gardner Webb, Buffalo, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, ULM and Marshall. Amazingly, six of the seven victories came by 12 points or fewer, so they were all competitive games against suspect competition. Two games ago they lost 21-49 outright to Old Dominion while allowing 525 total yards to the Monarchs, who don't have a very good offense.
And that's the difference in this game. One team can get stops while the other one can't. Appalachian State has the much better defense, allowing just 310 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play against teams that average 357 yards per game and 5.3 per play. Coastal Carolina allows 413 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play against teams that only average 396 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Appalachian State is allowing 1.2 yards per play less than Coastal Carolina on defense despite facing the tougher schedule.
These teams are pretty even offensively, but the Mountaineers have the better balance and are the better team at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. Appalachian State is averaging 36.9 points per game, 460 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play while Coastal Carolina is averaging 31.9 points per game, 435 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play.
Coastal Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after having won two of its last three games coming in. The Mountaineers are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game. The Chanticleers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win. They'll get exposed tonight against the best team they have faced all season in Appalachian State. This is probably the fourth-best team that the Mountaineers have faced as I would have UNC, James Madison and Texas A&M all favored over Coastal. Bet Appalachian State Thursday.
|11-02-22||Pistons +11.5 v. Bucks||Top||91-116||Loss||-110||9 h 40 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +11.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Pistons after a 2-6 start, and to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks after a 6-0 start. We saw this come to fruition last time out when the Pistons gave the Bucks all they wanted in 108-110 road loss as 13-point dogs.
The Pistons were even playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 128-114 upset home win over the Warriors as 7.5-point dogs the night prior to playing Milwaukee. That makes sense the line adjustment in the bad spot for the Pistons. But now this line is 11.5 and both teams are on equal rest.
I'll gladly take the 11.5 points with the Pistons in this revenge spot. It's a letdown spot for the Bucks, who are feeling fat and happy about being undefeated right now and won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Pistons for the 2nd time in 3 days. The Bucks are still without Middleton, Connaughton and Ingles and cannot be this big of a favorite against almost anyone without them.
Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - a winning team from last season off four or more consecutive wins are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1996. Plays on road teams (Detroit) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Milwaukee is 13-32 ATS in its last 45 games following three or more consecutive home wins. The Pistons are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games overall. Take the Pistons Wednesday.
|11-02-22||Clippers v. Rockets +6||109-101||Loss||-110||9 h 40 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Houston Rockets +6
I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 93-95 road loss to the Los Angeles Clippers as 9-point dogs. Now they are 6-point home dogs in the rematch, only a 3-point adjustment for home-court advantage and simply not enough for the revenge spot.
The Clippers have been one of the most disappointing, overrated teams in the NBA up to this point. They are 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming by exactly 2 points each over the Kings and Rockets. They lost three games by 14 points or more and were upset by the Thunder twice.
It's not getting any better for the Clippers tonight as they will be without their two best defenders in Kawhi Leonard and Robert Covington. They just cannot form any chemistry right now with all of these guys in and out of the lineup. They cannot be trusted as a 6-point road favorite over the Rockets with the way they've been playing to start the season. Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.
|11-02-22||Astros -101 v. Phillies||5-0||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
15* Astros/Phillies World Series ANNIHILATOR on Houston -101
The Houston Astros have a big advantage on the mound over the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 tonight and should square this series at 2-2 with a win as a result. Aaron Nola has been one of the most overrated starters in baseball for years, and Christian Javier is arguably the single-most underrated starter in baseball this season.
Javier is 12-8 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 26 starts this season with 178 K's in 139 2/3 innings. He has been lights out of late, going 4-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last five starts while firing 28 1/3 shutout innings. He has an elite fastball so the Phillies won't be able to know what's coming like they did against McCullers and all his off-speed stuff last night.
Nola is 13-14 with a 3.38 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in 36 start this season. He has been terrible in his last two postseason starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 innings for an 11.00 ERA. He gave up 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in Game 1 to the Astros. They will get to him again tonight.
For a guy that gets so much love, the Phillies are just 33-35 (-12.4 Units) in Nola's 68 starts over the past two seasons. That includes 7-18 (-13.1 Units) in Nola's 25 starts when facing a good team that outscores their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game. Houston is 37-14 in its last 51 games following a loss. Take the Astros in Game 4 Wednesday.
|11-02-22||Kings +7 v. Heat||Top||107-110||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +7
The Sacramento Kings have been undervalued since their 0-4 start against quality competition in which they were competitive in three of the four games. They came back and upset the Heat as 4-point home underdogs and then won and covered at Charlotte.
I backed the Kings in both of those games, and I'm back on them again tonight in what is a very favorable spot for them. While the Kings had yesterday off, the Heat just beat the defending champion Warriors 116-109 last night.
Not only is this now a letdown spot for the Heat, but they are also a very tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days. They could choose to rest some players tonight as this is as tough a spot as you will ever see in the NBA. That's why I'm not concerned the Kings will be without De'Aron Fox, plus they came back from 15 points down at halftime to beat the Hornets by 7 without Fox in the 2nd half.
The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Sacramento is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bet the Kings Wednesday.
|11-02-22||Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5||35-22||Loss||-114||23 h 18 m||Show|
15* CMU/NIU MAC ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois -5.5
This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Northern Illinois Huskies. They won the MAC last year and brought back 18 starters, so expectations were high. After winning all the close games last year, they have lost all the close games this year with a 2-6 start. This is much better than a 2-6 team.
The Huskies have had to go through three different starting quarterbacks due to injury. After playing third-stringer Lynch against Ohio last time out, they should get one of their top two back in either Lombardi or Hampton. They are coming off a bye week to get these guys healthy. And looking at the schedule, they still have a great shot to make a bowl by winning out with EMU, WMU, Miami Ohio and Akron to close the season with three of those games at home. We should get their best effort here.
Northern Illinois has outgained all four opponents in MAC play despite being 1-3 SU. They are gaining 437 yards per game on offense and only allowing 353 yards per game on defense. I still believe they are one of the best teams in the MAC, if not the best. That's why they are undervalued right now due to their record.
Central Michigan is every bit as bad as its 2-6 record would indicate. The Chippewas are 1-3 in MAC play and getting outgained 317 to 338.3 yards per game. They are averaging only 4.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.1 yards per play on defense. And they have faced an easy MAC schedule of Bowling Green, Akron, Ball State and Toledo. Their lone win came against Akron 28-21 as 12.5-point favorites. They only outgained the Zips by 50 yards.
This Central Michigan offense is broken. The Chippewas have been held to 18 points or fewer in four of their last five games with the lone exception being Akron. Star RB Lew Nicholls sate out last game and is questionable to return this week. The QB play has been poor, and the running game also hasn't been good even with Nicholls healthy. The Chippewas are averaging just 130 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry this season.
Northern Illinois is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games after having lost three of its last four games. The Huskies are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games vs. teams with a turnover margin of -1 or worse per game. The Chippewas are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. Northern Illinois is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games following an ATS loss. The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a bye week. Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.
|11-01-22||Warriors v. Heat OVER 226||109-116||Loss||-110||10 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Heat OVER 226
Two teams that have taken massive steps back defensively this season square off tonight in what should be a shootout in Miami. The Warriors are clearly suffering a championship hangover and not playing defense, while the Heat lost their defensive leader in PJ Tucker to the 76ers in the offseason.
Golden State ranks just 21st in defensive efficiency allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions. Miami hasn't been much better, ranking 20th in allowing 110.4 points per 100 possessions. And the Warriors play a lot of possessions as they rank 1st in the NBA in pace, while Miami has upped the tempo a little this season to 12th in pace.
The OVER is 6-0-1 in Warriors' seven games this season with combined scores of 232 or more points in all seven games. They are scoring 118.7 points per game and allowing 122.0 points per game on the season. Miami's last two games have seen 232 and 233 combined points coming into this one.
Miami is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games vs. Pacific Division opponents. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Miami. The OVER is 43-21 in Heat last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|11-01-22||Buffalo v. Ohio OVER 58.5||Top||24-45||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
20* Buffalo/Ohio ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 58.5
Two terrible defensive teams and two solid offenses square off tonight when the Buffalo Bulls visit the Ohio Bobcats in this MAC showdown Tuesday night. Expect a shootout to kick off MACtion in this contest tonight.
Ohio allows 34.4 points per game, 510 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play. The Bobcats are allowing 90 yards per game more than their opponents average on offense this season. They are also giving up 6.9 yards per play against teams that only average 6.0 yards per play.
Buffalo is getting credit for decent defensive numbers, but they have played a poor schedule of opposing offenses this season. The Bulls are allowing 18 yards per game more than their opponents average. They are also allowing 6.1 yards per play against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play. This is not a good defense.
Buffalo does have a good offense that averages 30.9 points per game this season and has scored 34 or more points in three consecutive games coming in. Ohio averages 32.0 points per game and 6.4 yards per play this season. The Bobcats are averaging 39 points per game in their last five games.
The OVER is 12-3 in Buffalo's last 15 Tuesday games. The OVER is 5-0 in Bulls last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 8-1 in Bulls last nine games following a bye week. The OVER is 4-0 in Bobcats last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 5-1 in Bobcats last six home games. The OVER is 7-2 in Bobcats last nine Tuesday games. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|11-01-22||Bulls +110 v. Nets||Top||108-99||Win||110||10 h 50 m||Show|
20* Bulls/Nets TNT No-Brainer on Chicago ML +110
I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight. They will be highly motivated for a victory following two consecutive losses. They have had the last two days off to get rested and ready to take down the Brooklyn Nets after last playing on Saturday.
Taking down the Nets has not been a problem this season. Brooklyn is 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS with its lone wins both coming at home over the Raptors by 4 and the Pacers by 7. They have four losses by 9 points or more this season and just aren't forming any chemistry with Simmons, Durant and Irving.
Now the spot is a terrible one for the Nets, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. They could choose to rest some players tonight. Either way, the Nets rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.8 points per 100 possessions. The Bulls will be able to do whatever they want to offensively.
Brooklyn is 6-32 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite. The Nets are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a good 3-point shooting team that makes at least 36% of their attempts. Brooklyn is 13-37-1 ATS in its last 51 home games overall. Take the Bulls Tuesday.
|10-31-22||Bengals -3 v. Browns||Top||13-32||Loss||-120||146 h 23 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Browns ESPN No-Brainer on Cincinnati -3
Note: I took the Bengals at -3 before the news came out that Ja'Marr Chase would be out for the Bengals. I thought this line should have been higher than 3. I still think we are getting a good number at -3 without him, but there's less of an edge here now.
The good news is the Bengals are still loaded with weapons for one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Joe Burrow. Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are both No. 2 receivers in this league. They have combined for 60 receptions for 910 yards and five touchdowns. Hayden Hurst also has 29 receptions for 226 yards and two scores. And Joe Mixon has 587 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage. They're going to be just fine, at least for this one game.
The Bengals have really gotten their offense going the last couple weeks by going to the shotgun on 90% of snaps. That's where Burrow thrives, and they are now one of the most pass-happy teams in the league. They scored 30 points against the Saints two weeks ago before crushing Atlanta 35-17 last week with 537 total yards. They have scored 27 or more points in four of their last five games while going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the process.
The Cleveland Browns are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. That includes a 38-15 loss to the Patriots in their last home game. Their offense has really been held in check of late in averaging 20.8 points per game in their last four games. Now they will be without one of Jacoby Brissett's favorite weapons in TE David Njoku, who has 34 receptions for 418 yards and one touchdown this season.
That leaves Amari Cooper as the only reliable weapon outside for Brissett. I just can't see them being able to match the Bengals score for score with this lackluster offense, especially since they are facing an underrated Cincinnati defense that ranks 6th in scoring at 18.9 points per game, 10th in total defense at 321.1 yards per game and 9th in allowing 5.2 yards per play.
The Browns also have injury concerns on defense. Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney and Denzel Ward are all questionable. Fellow cornerbacks Greg Newsome II and Greedy Williams are also questionable. This is a poor Cleveland defense that ranks 28th in scoring allowing 26.8 points per game and 20th allowing 5.7 yards per play.
The Browns also rank 24th in allowing 7.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. That's really bad when you consider the quarterbacks they have faced in Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, Bailey Zappe, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert. In fact, the Browns have faced the 2nd-easiest schedule in the NFL to this point overall and are still just 2-5 on the season.
The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Cincinnati is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings, including 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cleveland. Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.5 or more yards per carry. The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following three or more consecutive ATS victories. The Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a road loss. Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after playing its last game on the road. These last four trends combine for a 28-0 system backing Cincinnati. Bet the Bengals Monday.
|10-31-22||Pacers v. Nets OVER 236||109-116||Loss||-110||10 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Nets OVER 236
Two teams that like to push the tempo and play little defense square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Brooklyn Nets. The Pacers rank 1st in the NBA in pace this season while the Nets rank 10th.
Both teams are really struggling to start the season because they don't play defense. Indiana ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.1 points per 100 possessions. Brooklyn ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.8 points per 100 possessions.
The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Nets and Pacers with combined scores of 241, 260, 250, 203, 243 and 239 points with none of those games going to overtime. Those 260 and 250-point efforts came in their final two meetings last season, and they just combined for 241 points in their first meeting this season.
The OVER is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games overall. The OVER is 23-5-1 in Nets last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the OVER in this game Monday.
|10-31-22||Kings -2.5 v. Hornets||Top||115-108||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5
The Sacramento Kings were undefeated in the preseason under first-year head coach Mike Brown, one of the best hires of the offseason. But they got off to an 0-4 start to the regular season with three close losses to the Blazers, Clippers and Warriors.
The Kings finally got on the board with a win in a 119-113 home win over Miami last time out to get their swagger back. And now they are fresh and ready to go as they head to Charlotte to take on the worst opponent they have faced yet this season. While the Kings will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days, the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight.
It's a terrible spot for the Hornets, who just upset the defending champion Warriors as 10-point underdogs. It's now a letdown spot for them as they won't be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight. Making matters worse is the Hornets will be without their two starting guards in La'Melo Ball and Terry Rozier, while the Kings are fully healthy.
The Kings are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Charlotte) - a good offensive team scoring 118 or more points per game, in the first half of the season are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Kings Monday.
|10-30-22||Rockets v. Suns OVER 227||109-124||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Suns OVER 227
The Phoenix Suns are really clicking offensively this season. They rank 4th in offensive efficiency at 114.4 points per 100 possessions. They followed up a 134-105 win over the Warriors with a 124-111 win over the Pelicans. De'Andre Ayton was injured early in that win over the Pelicans and will miss this game, so the Suns will have to play more of a small ball lineup, which benefits the OVER.
The Houston Rockets are once again terrible defensively this season and play at a fast pace. The Rockets rank 23rd in defensive efficiency allowing 113.6 points per 100 possessions. They rank 5th in pace at 105.2 possessions per game.
The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Rockets and Suns with combined scores of 241, 245, 204, 234, 246 and 263 points with none of those games going to overtime. As you can see, five of the last six meetings have seen 234 or more combined points.
The OVER is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in Phoenix. The OVER is 8-1 in Rockets last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-30-22||Packers +11.5 v. Bills||Top||17-27||Win||100||99 h 51 m||Show|
20* Packers/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay +11.5
For starters, Aaron Rodgers hasn't been more than 8.5-point underdog in his career. That's 234 starts without being a double-digit dog. That fact alone shows you this is a 'buy low' spot on the Packers, and we'll do just. We'll back a Packers team that has lost three straight and failed to cover four in a row.
Rodgers is better when he is playing with a chip on his shoulder, and he will be in that mindset this week. Everyone is counting the Packers out playing the Super Bowl favorite in the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football. He will rally the troops and put forth the best effort of the season. The Packers have had a way of playing to the level of their competition, and they'll step it up this week.
I think this is a terrible spot for the Bills. They are coming off their bye week, but they were feeling fat and happy the last two weeks after beating the Kansas City Chiefs 24-20 two weeks back. That is the game they had circled all offseason, getting revenge on a Chiefs team that knocked them out of the playoffs for a second consecutive season. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Packers as they were to beat the Chiefs.
We've seen the Bills let teams hang around this season. They lost 19-21 at Miami, needed a last-second FG to beat the Ravens 23-20 and beat the Chiefs 24-20. They are beatable, and at the very least the Packers can keep this game within single-digits with the proper game plan.
The strength of their team this year is their running game and Aaron Jones, and I expect the Packers to embrace is this week and feed the horse. The weakness of the Bills is the interior of their defense as they can be run on. So controlling the clock with the running game and short passes to Jones out of the backfield is a recipe for success here.
I know the Packers will be without Allen Lazard, but they should get WR Christian Watson back this week, and Sammy Watkins is healthy as well. Their best defender in LB Rashan Gary is upgraded to probable as well. They are hopeful to have both T Bakhtiari and G Jenkins in the lineup as both have missed time over the past couple seasons. The Bills will be without T Brown, CB White and S Hyde for this one.
The actual strength of the Packers this season is their defense, which allows 20.9 points per game while ranking 7th in total defense at 308.4 yards per game. They can get enough stops here to be able to hang around while the offense methodically moves the ball down the field and keeps Buffalo's offense off the field for the majority of this game.
Plays against home teams (Buffalo) - outgaining opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards per game, after gaining 7 or more yards per pass attempt in two consecutive games are 43-12 (78.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Packers Sunday Night.
|10-30-22||Wolves -5.5 v. Spurs||98-107||Loss||-105||8 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs are both off to 4-2 starts this season. The difference is the Timberwolves are a real contender in the West, while the Spurs are a pretender. This surprising start will be forgotten pretty quickly when the Spurs come back down to reality.
San Antonio has caught a lot of teams sleeping on them and taken advantage. The Timberwolves will not be sleeping on them. They were one of the teams that were upset by the Spurs 106-115 at home as 8.5-point favorites. But they came back and pounded the Spurs 134-122 as 9.5-point favorites in the rematch two days later. And now they won't be taking them lightly, plus we are getting a better value on them as only 5.5-point favorites in this 3rd meeting when the Spurs won't have much home-court advantage.
Also, San Antonio won't have its second-best player in Devin Vassell, who averages 19.8 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game this season. They could also be without Josh Richardson, who is averaging 11.7 points per game and making 45.2% from 3-point range. He is questionable for this one. Either way, the Timberwolves will win this game going away.
Minnesota owns San Antonio. The Timberwolves are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spurs with all seven victories coming by 6 points or more. Minnesota is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 Sunday games. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.
|10-30-22||Patriots -130 v. Jets||Top||22-17||Win||100||93 h 58 m||Show|
20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New England Patriots ML -130
This is a great 'buy low' spot on the New England Patriots. They were just upset 33-14 on Monday Night Football as 8.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 27.5 points. They were embarrassed, and now they'll come back highly motivated to beat a division opponent here in the New York Jets, especially since they currently reside in last place in the division.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Jets, who have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite terrible QB play from Zach Wilson. A great defense and RB Breece Hall and WR Cory Davis have masked Wilson's QB play. Well, now Hall and Davis are out, so they are down their two biggest weapons on offense. They aren't going to be able to overcome it.
The Jets have benefited from playing a rookie or backup QB in three of their four wins during this streak. They beat Brett Rypien and the Broncos last week, Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins and a combination of Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett, who combined for four interceptions. When they faced a real team with a legit QB, they lost by 15 to the Ravens and lost by 15 to the Bengals.
The Jets also lost their best offensive linemen in Alijah Vera-Tucker to an injury last week, and he's out along with Davis and Hall. Hall has 681 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns and is irreplaceable. So is Davis, who has 19 receptions for 351 yards and two scores to lead the team. Wilson is completing just 57.4% of his passes with a 1-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season.
I like that the Patriots have announced they are going with Mac Jones moving forward. This should put some stability into the offense, and he should be another week healthy after returning last week against the Bears before getting replaced by Zappe. He is the more talented QB with the bigger upside, and he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder this week.
The Patriots own the Jets, going 12-0 SU in the last 12 meetings with their last loss to them in 2015. And we just need them to win straight up here. Bill Belichick is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 21-plus points in his previous game as the coach of the Patriots. New England is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game. The Jets' luck runs out this week against a better, pissed off New England team. Bet the Patriots on the Money Line Sunday.
|10-30-22||Steelers +10.5 v. Eagles||Top||13-35||Loss||-110||92 h 32 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers +10.5
Not all bye weeks are created equal. The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off their bye week, and I think that's being factored too much into this line. Sometimes bye weeks are great for teams to regroup, but the Eagles didn't need to regroup. Also, the Eagles have played the 3rd-easiest schedule in the NFL, while the Steelers have played the 3rd-toughest. So the numbers for both teams up to this point are misleading.
The Eagles are the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL at 6-0 this season. So if anything, the bye week puts a halt to their momentum. They are coming off a win over their biggest rivals in the Cowboys going into the bye week, so they are clearly feeling fat and happy right now and not as motivated as most teams would be going into a bye week. I think this bye week could actually be a bad thing for the Eagles.
Either way, I think the Steelers have the goods to be able to hang with the Eagles Sunday. After upsetting the Bucs at home two weeks ago, the Steelers hung tough with the Miami Dolphins last week in a 16-10 road loss. They had a chance to win that game late as their defense kept them in it. I think Kenny Pickett is going to keep getting better with each passing start, and he could be primed for his best performance of the season this week.
The Eagles aren't really blowing anyone out. They have just two of their six wins by double-digits. Their last three games were all decided by 9 points or fewer. After beating the Jaguars by 8 at home, they only beat the Cardinals by 3 on the road and were actually outgained in that game. Their 26-17 win over the Cowboys last time out was misleading as their offense was held to 268 total yards, but they benefitted from being +3 in turnovers.
A big reason the Eagles are 6-0 is due to turnover luck. They are +12 in turnovers through six games. I have a hard time trusting those teams that have had the turnover luck on their side. The Steelers have been getting healthier defensively in recent weeks and will have the proper game plan to slow down Jalen Hurts and his dual-threat ability. No team has had more success stopping Lamar Jackson in recent seasons than the Steelers, so they know how to defend running quarterbacks.
Mike Tomlin is 16-5 ATS vs. teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better as the coach of Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 games in the month of October. The Eagles are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS win. Take the Steelers Sunday.
|10-30-22||Dolphins v. Lions +3.5||31-27||Loss||-108||92 h 31 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Lions +3.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week. They have lost four consecutive games including two straight blowout losses to the Patriots 29-0 and the Cowboys 24-6. But they were far from healthy in those last two games, and they are getting a lot of players back this week.
The Lions were going in to take a 13-10 lead against the Cowboys in the 4th quarter but fumbled at the 1-yard line. That completely changed the game. They were only outgained by 18 yards by the Cowboys, so it was much closer than the final score would indicate. They came through with their best defensive performance of the season in limiting a potent Dallas attack to just 330 total yards.
Reinforcements are on the way for the Lions this week. They will be getting RB DeAndre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown back from injury. TE TJ Hockenseon and WR Josh Reynolds are healthy, as are T Taylor Decker and C Frank Ragnew, who are all listed as probable. Swift rushed for 231 yards and averaged 8.6 yards per carry in the first three games this season. St. Brown has 28 receptions for 275 yards and three scores in basically just four games of action. Reynolds and Hockenson have also been huge for this team, combining for 47 receptions, 658 yards and five touchdowns.
The Dolphins have six of their top eight int he secondary on the injury report. They will be without S Brandon Jones, who leads the team with 49 tackles and also has two sacks. The Lions are going to be able to shred their defense this week. Tua did not look great in his return to the lineup last week, leading the Dolphins to just 16 points against the Steelers. He should have more success this week, but I liked what I saw from this Detroit defense last week. Either way, the Dolphins shouldn't be 3.5-point favorites on the road against anyone.
The Lions are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. The Dolphins are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight October games. Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Detroit is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss. The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game. Detroit is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following two consecutive losses by 14 points or more. Bet the Lions Sunday.
|10-30-22||Raiders v. Saints +1.5||0-24||Win||100||70 h 19 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Saints +1.5
The New Orleans Saints look like the best 2-5 or worse team in the NFL right now. That makes this a great opportunity to 'buy low' on them as home underdogs to the Las Vegas Raiders this week. The Saints have the numbers of a 5-2 team, not a 2-5 team.
New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NFL in total offense at 398.3 yards per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play. The Saints rank 14th in total defense at 340.4 yards per game and 18th at 5.6 yards per play allowed. So they are actually outgaining opponents by 58 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play, which are numbers of an elite team, not one that is 2-5 on the season.
The Saints have not had turnover luck on their side this season. They have committed 16 turnovers while getting only 6 takeaways, so they are -10 in turnovers. That gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on this team because turnovers are hard to predict.
Just last week the Saints gave the game away with two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in the final two minutes before halftime against the Cardinals. They still nearly won that game as they gained 494 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 168 yards. Those two picks weren't actually Andy Dalton's fault, and I like the fact that Dennis Allen is sticking with him this week. They have extra prep time after playing the Cardinals last Thursday, which is a bonus too.
While the Saints are coming off a misleading loss to the Cardinals, the Raiders are coming off a misleading 38-20 win over the Texans. They actually gave up 404 yards to a terrible Houston offense and were outgained in that game. But they got a 73-yard interception return for a TD late in the game that put it away, which was basically a 14-point swing.
The Raiders can't be trusted as road favorites here because they have a leaky defense. They rank 26th in scoring defense at 25.0 points per game, 24th in total defense at 366.7 yards per game and 23rd in allowing 5.8 yards per play. They also had a flu bug go through their team this week that has been a big distraction and caused players to miss practice. That magnifies the rest and preparation advantage the Saints have had after playing last Thursday and getting 10 days to prepare for this game.
The Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record. Las Vegas is 0-3 SU on the road this season. Plays against road favorites (Las Vegas) - in a game involving two teams that allow 335 to 370 yards per game defensively, after gaining 375 or more yards in two consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983. Take the Saints Sunday.
|10-29-22||Stanford +17 v. UCLA||Top||13-38||Loss||-110||99 h 3 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford +17
The UCLA Bruins just suffered their 'dream crusher' loss to Oregon last week. The Bruins entered that game 6-0 with national championship aspirations. But the 45-30 loss crushed their dreams, and now there will be a hangover effect this week. They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat following that defeat, and they certainly won't have their 'A' game, which is what it would take to cover this massive 17-point spread.
Stanford has turned around their season with back-to-back wins over Notre Dame and Arizona State. They had lost four straight prior to that, but all four losses came by 18 points or fewer, including losses to USC and Oregon, which are arguably the two best teams in the Pac-12. They lost to Oregon by 18 while UCLA lost to them by 15, both on the road, to give these teams a common opponent.
UCLA has beaten Stanford by more than 17 points just once in the last 15 meetings. That's a 14-1 system backing the Cardinal pertaining to this 17-point spread. The Cardinal are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Stanford is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six trips to UCLA.
The head-to-head history suggests this line is too big. The hangover spot for the Bruins suggests this line is too big. And finally, Stanford has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country to this point, while UCLA has played the 66th-toughest. That difference in strength of schedule makes the Cardinal a must bet this week. Roll with Stanford Saturday.
|10-29-22||Michigan State +23 v. Michigan||Top||7-29||Win||100||96 h 18 m||Show|
25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State +23
This is too many points for this rivalry game between Michigan State and Michigan. The Spartans always take this game more seriously than the Wolverines as it's a little brother vs. big brother situation. And we've seen that play out with the Spartans consistently pulling off upsets and keeping games a lot closer than the spread.
In fact, Michigan has just one win by more than 18 points in its last 19 meetings with Michigan State. That makes for an 18-1 system backing the Spartans pertaining to this 23-point spread. While the Wolverines are clearly the better team again this year, they have no business being a 23-point favorite when you look at the head-to-head history.
I also like the fact that Michigan State is coming off its most impressive performance of the season. The Spartans upset Wisconsin 34-28 as 7-point home underdogs. There was nothing fluky about that win, either. The Spartans outgained the Badgers 389 to 283, or by 106 total yards. That win looks even better now when you consider Wisconsin crushed Northwestern 42-7 and Purdue 35-24 sandwiched around that loss to Michigan State. The Spartans were banged up in the first half of the season, but are now as healthy as they have been all season and coming off a bye.
I think Michigan is getting too much respect for its 41-17 blowout victory over Penn State last time out. But the Wolverines were far from impressive in their previous three games. They only beat Maryland 34-27 as 17-point home favorites, Iowa 27-14 as 10.5-point road favorites and Indiana 31-10 as 23-point road favorites. Keep in mind that Indiana game was tied 10-10 at halftime. Michigan only outgained Iowa by 46 yards and Maryland by 66 yards, too.
Michigan State is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Michigan. The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Simply put, this is too many points for this rivalry game, and it's time to 'buy low' on the Spartans and 'sell high' on the Wolverines. Bet Michigan State Saturday.
|10-29-22||Pacers v. Nets OVER 236||125-116||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Nets OVER 236
Two teams that like to push the tempo and play little defense square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets rank 5th in the NBA in pace this season while the Pacers rank 11th.
Both teams are really struggling to start the season because they don't play defense. Indiana ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.1 points per 100 possessions. Brooklyn ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 116.5 points per 100 possessions.
The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Nets and Pacers with combined scores of 260, 250, 203, 243 and 239 points with none of those games going to overtime. Those 260 and 250-point efforts came in their final two meetings last season, and it should be more of the same in their first meeting of 2022-23.
The OVER is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 games overall. The OVER is 22-5-1 in Nets last 28 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
|10-29-22||Colorado State +27.5 v. Boise State||10-49||Loss||-110||54 h 55 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State +27.5
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Boise State Broncos. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall since QB Hank Bachmeier transferred out. The wins came against San Diego State, Fresno State and Air Force. All three programs are down this season compared to preseasons expectations.
This is a letdown and sandwich spot for Boise State. They are coming off the 19-14 win at Air Force that puts them on the inside track to win the Mountain West. Now they have a big game against rival BYU on deck next week. That makes this a sandwich spot. They won't be giving their 'A' effort this week, and that's going to make it difficult for them to win by four-plus touchdowns, which is what it's going to take to cover this spread.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on Colorado State, which faced a brutal early schedule and got off to an 0-4 start under first-year head coach Jay Norvell. But the Rams have continued to fight and improve under Norvell, going 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall with wins over Nevada and Hawaii and only a 4-point loss to Utah State as a 14-point dog.
I know Colorado State's offense has struggled, but their defense has been better than expected. Their defense is the reason they have a chance to cover this game because Boise State is going to have a hard time scoring 28 points in this one with a total of just 43. The Rams are holding foes to 381 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play, which is impressive considering how much they have been on the field due to their offense. They have held their last three opponents to just 14.7 points per game.
It's not like Boise State is an offensive juggernaut, either. The Broncos are scoring 26.0 points per game, averaging 336 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that allow 362 yards per game and 5.7 per play. They have a below-average offense. Their defense is good, but that have faced such an easy schedule of opposing offenses. They have played the 104th-ranked schedule in the country overall.
Colorado State is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in their previous game. The Broncos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a win. Bet Colorado State Saturday.
|10-29-22||Heat v. Kings +4.5||Top||113-119||Win||100||8 h 57 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +4.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings after an 0-4 start this season. They are much better and more talented than they have shown to this point after going unbeaten in the preseason. They just haven't been able to put it all together yet. It's only a matter of time, and I expect the Kings to pick up their first win of the season tonight. They were competitive in three of their four losses to the Blazers, Clippers and Warriors.
It's a great spot for the Kings as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. They are fully healthy with the starting five of Fox, Murray, Heurter, Sabonis and Barnes all averaging double-figures scoring. Murray is starting to show why he was among the favorites to win Rookie of the Year, averaging 17.7 points per game on 51.3% shooting and 41.7% from 3-point range. Fox has taken his game to the next level averaging 30.5 points per game.
It's a terrible spot for the Miami Heat, who will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days overall. They are coming off a loss to the defending champion Warriors, and it will be hard for them to be as motivated to face the Kings as they were the Warriors. The Heat are just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS this season and have been a major disappointment. They have really slipped defensively with the loss of PJ Tucker, their leader on that end of the court.
The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Kings are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Sacramento is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 Saturday games. The Kings are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Sacramento. Roll with the Kings Saturday.
|10-29-22||North Texas +10 v. Western Kentucky||Top||40-13||Win||100||92 h 4 m||Show|
20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on North Texas +10
North Texas has been very impressive the last four games they have played and are flying under the radar. They have what it takes to hang with Western Kentucky in this Conference USA showdown Saturday. It's a great spot for them and a terrible one for Western Kentucky.
North Texas only lost 34-44 at Memphis as 13-point dogs in what was a misleading final four games back. They actually outgained Memphis 473 to 344 in that game, or by 139 total yards. Three games ago they won 45-28 at home against Florida Atlantic with 481 total yards. Two weeks ago they won 47-27 at home over Louisiana Tech with 671 total yards. And last week they led UTSA late and lost 27-31 as 10-point road underdogs. UTSA is the favorite to win Conference USA.
This North Texas offense can keep them in every game as they will never be out of this one. The Mean Green are putting up 35.0 points per game, 484 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play. They are also fresh and ready to go after having a bye three weeks ago. They are quietly contenders in C-USA this season, and they will give Western Kentucky all they want and more Saturday.
This is a letdown spot for WKU after a 20-17 win over another C-USA contender in UAB last week. Well, they would never have won that game if QB Dylan Hopkins didn't get knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter. UAB backup QB Zeno went 3-of-10 for 33 yards and rushed 6 times for 14 yards after replacing Hopkins. Simply put, he was awful, and UAB still should have beaten WKU had they not turned the ball over four times.
This is a tired WKU team that will be playing for a 7th consecutive week. The Hilltoppers have benefited from playing a very easy schedule, ranked 122nd in the country. It's a great time to 'sell high' on them after a 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season. The only teams they have beaten by this kind of margin are Austin Peay, Hawaii, FIU and Middle Tennessee. Those are three of the worst FBS teams in the country plus an FCS team, and they only beat Austin Peay by 11.
North Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher. The Mean Green are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Finally, the Mean Green were 10-point dogs at UTSA last week, and now are 10-point dogs at WKU this week. UTSA beat WKU and is better than WKU. This line cannot be the same as it was last week, so there's value on the Mean Green. Take North Texas Saturday.
|10-29-22||Northwestern +11.5 v. Iowa||Top||13-33||Loss||-110||92 h 3 m||Show|
20* Northwestern/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +11.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Northwestern Wildcats following six consecutive losses. Well, five of those six losses came by 10 points or fewer. They just hung with Maryland last week in a 24-31 road loss as 14-point underdogs. And now they will give Iowa a run for its money Saturday.
This is exactly the type of game Pat Fitzgerald loves. It's guaranteed to be a physical Big Ten game against an Iowa team that plays a similar style. That's why Northwestern plays Iowa tough every year and will play them tough again this season.
Iowa's offense has no business laying this kind of number. The Hawkeyes are scoring 14.0 points per game, averaging 227 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play. They have scored more than 14 points just twice all season. One was against Nevada, a 27-0 win against what is one of the worst teams in FBS. The other was a 27-10 win over Rutgers, which was misleading considering Iowa scored two defensive touchdowns and was outgained by 84 yards. So technically the Hawkeyes' offense only scored 13 points on Rutgers.
Northwestern was even worse last year than they are this season, and Iowa was better. Well, Iowa won 17-12 as identical 11.5-point favorites at Northwestern. And they were fortunate to win that game as the were +3 in turnovers. Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or fewer.
Fitzgerald is 8-1 ATS in road games following a cover where his team lost straight up as an underdog as the coach of Northwestern. Kirk Ferentz is 3-14 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Iowa. The Wildcats are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games coming off five consecutive games where they had two or more turnovers. Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. poor offensive teams that average 310 or fewer yards per game. Bet Northwestern Saturday.
|10-29-22||Oregon v. California +17.5||42-24||Loss||-110||92 h 3 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on California +17.5
This is a big letdown spot for Oregon. The Ducks are coming off a 45-30 home win over UCLA in what was one of the biggest games of the week in college football last Saturday. It's now time to 'sell high' on the Ducks, who are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
Oregon has been awesome at home, but it has been a different story on the road. The Ducks are 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS on the highway this season. They lost 49-3 to Georgia and only beat Washington State 44-41 as 6.5-point road favorites. They did beat Arizona 49-22, but California also crushed Arizona 49-31.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Golden Bears, who have lost three consecutive games coming in. They did hang tough in a 21-28 home loss to Washington as 7.5-point home dogs. They are now 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season. This is the best offense Cal has had in a few years, and their defense is solid as always allowing 22.6 points per game.
The recent head-to-head series really favors Cal in this one. Cal is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Oregon with all three meetings decided by 10 points or fewer. Now Cal is catching a whopping 17.5 points in this showdown. Cal always takes this game more seriously than Oregon does, and Justin Wilcox has figured out their offense. The Ducks have been held to 24, 17 and 17 points in the last three meetings. That's going to make it tough to cover this 17.5-point spread if they are shut down again.
California is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after going under the total in its previous game. The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. California is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss. Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. The Ducks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. Take California Saturday.
|10-29-22||Wake Forest v. Louisville +4.5||21-48||Win||100||92 h 3 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Louisville +4.5
The Louisville Cardinals have played two of their best games of the season the last two weeks. They beat Virginia 34-17 on the road as 2-point underdogs without Malik Cunningham. He returned last week to lead them to a 24-10 home win over Pittsburgh as 1-point favorites.
It was the fourth time this season that the Cardinals have held their opponent to 17 points or fewer as this defense is better than it gets credit for. This is also one of the better offenses in the ACC as the Cardinals have scored 32.6 points per game in their last five games. They have the firepower to hang with Wake Forest, and they also have the defense to get a few key stops.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Demon Deacons, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season against a pretty soft schedule. Wake Forest has played the 83rd-ranked schedule in the country. To compare, Louisville has played the 44th-toughest schedule in the country. They are more battled-tested than the Demon Deacons, and this will be their toughest test since a home loss to Clemson.
Louisville is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings over the past three seasons. Louisville won 62-59 as 7-point road dogs in 2019, 45-21 as 2-point home dogs in 2020 and lost 34-37 as 7-point road dogs in 2021. Amazingly, the Demon Deacons continue to be favored over the Cardinals when they shouldn't be. This is clearly a great matchup for Cunningham and head coach Scott Satterfield. The underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. Roll with Louisville Saturday.
|10-28-22||East Carolina +3 v. BYU||Top||27-24||Win||100||73 h 48 m||Show|
20* ECU/BYU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on East Carolina +3
East Carolina is one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS this season but could easily be 7-1 instead. They missed an extra point late and lost to NC State by 1. They also lost in OT to Navy by 3. Their one legit loss was a 9-24 setback at Tulane, but Tulane is one of the most improved teams in the country at 7-1 this season with a road win over Kansas State.
What makes me know East Carolina is legit and should be 7-1 is the fact that the Pirates have actually outgained seven of their eight opponents this season. They are averaging 472.6 yards per game on offense behind a balanced attack with 163 rushing yards per game and 309 passing yards per game. They are allowing 395 yards per game on defense, outgaining their opponents by 78 yards per game.
BYU has fallen off a cliff since a 4-1 start. The Cougars have now lost three straight and are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. They are one of the most overrated teams in the country, and continue to be as favorites here over East Carolina when they shouldn't be. BYU has been outgained in four of its eight games and drastically in its last three.
You could see the sign of things to come with a 38-26 win over Utah State that was much closer than the final score despite being a 25.5-point favorite against Utah State's third-string QB. BYU only outgained Utah State by 7 yards. They went on to lose 28-20 to Notre Dame while getting outgained by 220 yards, lost 52-35 to Arkansas while getting outgained by 173 yards, and lost 41-14 to Liberty while getting outgained by 289 yards.
The brutal schedule and the fatigue are starting to catch up to to the Cougars. In fact, BYU will be playing for a 9th consecutive week here. BYU's offense isn't working, and the defense is getting gashed. Liberty had 41 points and 547 total yards on this BYU defense last week which followed up 52 points and 644 total yards by Arkansas the previous week.
The Cougars cannot stop the run. They have allowed at least 205 rushing yards in five of their last six games, including 3000 to Liberty and 277 to Arkansas. East Carolina averages 4.9 yards per attempt this season and can keep the ball on the ground if they decide to, though QB Holton Ahlers is one of the best signal callers in the country. BYU allows 202 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry. ECU only allows 115 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.
East Carolina just crushed UCF 34-13 at home, a UCF team that many thought would win the American Athletic this season. The Pirates are 9-1 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons. The Pirates are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games as road underdogs of 7 points or fewer. BYU is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game. The Cougars are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Bet East Carolina Friday.
|10-28-22||76ers -115 v. Raptors||Top||112-90||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia 76ers ML -115
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers. They have opened 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS through their first five games while being favored in four of those five games. Now we are getting them at basically even money here against the Toronto Raptors.
Not only will the 76ers be motivated from this poor start, they'll also be out for revenge from a 109-119 loss at Toronto on Wednesday. Now they get their shot at revenge just two days later here on Friday. Toronto is not going to shoot 54.8% again like they did in that first meeting.
Toronto is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home games following a win by 10 points or more. The Raptors are 0-9 ATS in their last nine home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game.
Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 50-21 (70.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the 76ers Friday.
|10-28-22||Hawks v. Pistons +7||Top||136-112||Loss||-110||8 h 22 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7
I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 113-118 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday. Now they get to host the Hawks again here two days later and are 7-point underdogs in the rematch. They will want it more tonight.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons coming off four consecutive losses overall. Three of those losses came on the road. They are 1-1 at home this season with that 5-point loss to the Hawks being their lone defeat. They are very healthy right now, while the Hawks are playing without Bogdan Bogdanovic.
This Hawks team is getting a lot of love for a 3-1 start against arguably the easiest schedule any team has faced this season. They have played three home games against Houston, Orlando and Charlotte plus that road game at Detroit. They lost by 17 to the Hornets and were in competitive games with both Orlando and Houston as well.
Atlanta is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games following a win by 6 points or less. The Hawks are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 road games. The Pistons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win. Detroit is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Atlanta. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the Pistons Friday.
|10-27-22||Grizzlies v. Kings +3.5||Top||125-110||Loss||-110||21 h 54 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +3.5
I love the spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight. They will be highly motivated for their first victory of the season after opening 0-3 SU but 2-1 ATS, so they have been competitive. They also come in on three days' rest having last played on Sunday.
That extra rest and practice time is huge for this young team and first-year head coach Mike Brown, who led the Kings to a perfect preseason. They are loaded with talent and that has shown even in the losses. They lost by 7 at home to Portland after blowing a 7-point lead late. They lost by 2 to the Clippers as 2.5-point home dogs, and they lost by 5 at Golden State as 10-point road dogs.
This is a terrible spot for the Grizzlies. They will be feeling fat and happy after a 134-124 home win over the Brooklyn Nets. They are off to a 3-1 start this season and it's a good time to 'sell high' on them. They needed OT to beat the Knicks at home, only won by 7 at Houston after outscoring the Rockets by 12 in the 4th quarter, failing to cover as 7.5-point favorites. And they lost badly 96-137 at Dallas as 6-point dogs.
The Grizzlies are without Jaren Jackson Jr, Zaire Williams and Danny Green and it has really shown defensively as they rank 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win. Sacramento is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game. The Kings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games playing on three or more days' rest. Bet the Kings Thursday.
|10-27-22||Utah -7 v. Washington State||Top||21-17||Loss||-110||51 h 48 m||Show|
20* Utah/Washington State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -7
Two road losses to Florida and UCLA have the Utah Utes undervalued right now. They came into the season as the favorites to win the Pac-12. Those two losses have them flying under the radar. They are still the best team in the conference and I think we'll see that play out as the season unfolds.
That was definitely the case last time out as Utah handed USC its first loss of the season. The Utes racked up 562 total yards on the Trojans in the 43-42 shootout victory. The Utes are now scoring 40.7 points per game and averaging 473 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense. I don't see any way for Washington State to be able to score enough points to hang with the Utes in this one Thursday night.
The Cougars are down their two best weapons on offense in WR Renard Bell and RB Nakia Watson. Watson has rushed for 325 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 5.1 per carry and leads the team in rushing. Bell has 20 receptions for 282 yards and two touchdowns. Bell has missed the past two games, while Watson has missed most of the past two games.
To no surprise, Washington State has had it two worst offensive performances in its last two games without these two. The Cougars managed just 14 points and 316 total yards on a terrible USC defense in a 30-14 loss. They managed just 10 points in a 24-10 loss at Oregon State last time out. That's not a great Oregon State defense, either.
Utah has owned Washington State in going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings while winning by 25, 17 and 11 points. The Utes are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games following a win. The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week. Washington State is 0-5 ATS in its last five Thursday games. Utah is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games coming off two consecutive games where 70 or more combined points were scored. Kyle Whittingham is 21-11 ATS following a bye week as the coach of Utah. Bet Utah Thursday.
|10-27-22||Ravens v. Bucs -1||27-22||Loss||-110||19 h 54 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Bucs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay -1
This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are coming off the most shocking loss of the season, a 21-3 road loss to the Carolina Panthers. If Mike Evans didn't drop a wide open touchdown that would have given the Bucs a 7-0 lead, that game would have played out much differently. Nothing went right for the Bucs after that.
The Bucs are now 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. You'll never get them at a better price this season. The lookahead line on this game was Bucs -3.5, and now we are getting the Bucs at basically a PK. Whatever the Bucs have to give, they are going to give in this game to try and turn their season around in front of their home crowd.
The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a 23-20 home win over the Browns as 6.5-point favorites that they did not deserve. The Ravens were outgained 336 to 254 by the Browns and 6.0 to 4.0 yards per play. A bad Cleveland defense shut them down, and it took an overturned TD to Amari Cooper late for the Ravens to escape with a victory.
This Baltimore offense has been broken the last four weeks. The Ravens have managed just 20.5 points per game and just 320.3 yards per game in their last four games. They aren't going to get any separation from the Bucs, who still have a very good defense that allows just 17.7 points and 308.3 yards per game. Their defense will keep them in this game, and Tom Brady will make enough plays to get Tampa Bay a much-needed bounce back victory.
And that's why I'm taking the Bucs here because they have the best unit on the field in their defense, and they will be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency tonight. The Ravens actually rank just 23rd in total defense allowing 366.4 yards per game and 19th in allowing 5.7 yards per play. Tampa Bay ranks 7th allowing just 4.9 yards per play on defense.
Baltimore is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after playing its last game at home. Tampa Bay is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following an upset loss as a favorite. Tom Brady hasn't lost three consecutive games since 2002. He has never been two games under .500 in his career. I'll side with history here and for Brady and the Bucs to get the job done. Roll with the Bucs Thursday.