15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Arizona/BYU OVER 152

Two elite offensive teams square off tonight when Arizona visits BYU.  The result should be a shootout that sails OVER this 152-point total.

Arizona ranks 59th in adjusted tempo and 14th in adjusted offense.  The OVER is 5-2 in Arizona's last seven games overall with 151 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

BYU ranks 16th in adjusted offense and 8th in effective FG percentage.  The Cougars have scored at least 80 points in five of their last six games and I expect them to get to 80 again tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Lakers/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 220.5

The Lakers have had to go more small ball without Anthony Davis due to injury.  Now they are going to continue to go more small ball after trading him to the Mavericks.

The Lakers are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 222 points with Philadelphia, 230 with Washington and 240 with the New York Knicks.  Their offense has taken off going for 134 points against the Wizards and 128 against the Knicks.

The Clippers are fully healthy right now and get back Norman Powell from injury tonight.  Powell may be the most improved player in the NBA.  The Clippers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 220 or more combined points in four of those five games.

The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 228 or more combined points in five of those seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State -3

San Jose State is the single-most underrated team in the country.  The Spartans are 17-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They should be more than 3-point favorites against arguably the worst team in the Mountain West in the Fresno State Bulldogs tonight.

Fresno State is in a rebuilding year and is just 2-15 SU in its last 17 games overall with the two wins coming by 8 over San Diego and by 9 over Air Force.  Those are two of the worst teams in the country.  The Bulldogs may be without senior F Mykell Robinson (10.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG) due to personal reasons tonight and they cannot afford to be without him.

San Jose State will not have a letdown because they can get back to .500 this season with a win.  I expect them to handle their business against a team they should easily handle tonight.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +18.5

Auburn is overvalued due to being the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  The Tigers are coming off a big road win at Ole Miss, a big road win at LSU and narrow wins by exactly 2 points over Tennessee at home and Georgia on the road.  The Tigers won't be all that motivated to beat Oklahoma tonight.

Porter Moser has the Sooners playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming by 7 at Texas A&M as 8.5-point underdogs.  They also upset Arkansas on the road, and crushed South Carolina by 20 and Vanderbilt by 30 at home.  They are playing too well right now to be catching 18.5 points tonight.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma State +22

The Houston Cougars are overvalued right now.  They are coming off an upset home loss to Texas Tech as 9.5-point favorites.  While they will be motivated to bounce back, asking them to win this game by 23-plus points to beat us is asking too much.

That's especially the case with Houston being down one of its best players in Emanuel Sharp (12.5 PPG, 43.6% 3-pointers).  The Cougars already lack depth as it is, so being down their 2nd-leading scorer is huge.

Houston won't be all that motivated to beat Oklahoma State again after topping the Cowboys 60-47 as 11.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  This spread has nearly doubled to 22 in the 2nd meeting, which is way too big of an adjustment.

The Cowboys come in with confidence beating Utah 81-72 at home to avenge a 21-point road loss earlier this season to the Utes.  They also only lost by 10 at Texas Tech recently, so they know they can hang with Houston on the road here tonight.  Bet Oklahoma State Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors +6.5

The New York Knicks will be running on fumes tonight.  They overcame an 11-point deficit in the 4th quarter last night to beat the short-handed Rockets 124-118 behind 46 points in the 4th.

Now the Knicks have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back after all five starters played at least 34 minutes last night, including 38 from Towns, 39 from Bridges, 40 from Hart and 37 from Brunson.  They will be without OG Anunoby so they are already short-handed as it is.

The Raptors have quietly gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They had yesterday off and will be the fresher, more prepared team.  They also want revenge from losing each of their first three meetings with the Knicks this season. I fully expect the Raptors to win this game outright, but at the very least they'll stay within this number.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

The Houston Rockets will be running on fumes tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after a 124-118 loss at New York last night.  Brooks played 39 minutes, Thomson 37 and Green 36 last night in the loss.

The Rockets won't have much left in the tank for the Nets tonight.  They are short-handed as it is without Fred VanVleet, Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. tonight.  The Rockets have now lost three straight, including a 110-98 home loss to the Nets on Saturday.

The Nets have played two of their best games of the season in their last two games winning 104-83 as 1.5-point dogs at Charlotte and 110-98 as 12.5-point dogs at Houston.  Now they are catching 9.5 points at home in the rematch, which is too much given the terrible spot for the Rockets.  The Nets have had the last two days off and will give the Rockets another run for their money tonight.  Bet the Nets Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/76ers OVER 224.5

The Philadelphia 76ers have had to go more small ball without their two best big men.  That has opened things up for their offense especially with the new big man in Yabusele showing he belongs in the NBA.  He is coming off 28 points against the Nuggets and 21 points against the Celtics in his last two games.  His ability to stretch the floor has been on display going 13-of-31 from 3-point range in his last seven games.

The 76ers and their opponents have combined for at least 221 points in seven of their last eight games overall while going 6-2 OVER during this stretch.  This total of 224.5 is very low for a game involving the 76ers right now.

The OVER is 6-1 in 76ers last seven games overall with 229 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  Kyrie Irving is expected to play tonight, and the Mavericks are also having to go more small ball without Lively and Powell.  Anthony Davis will not make his debut tonight, but Max Christie will and his shooting will be a nice addition.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue -6.5

Iowa just lost F Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG) to a season-ending injury in a 82-65 road loss at Ohio State on January 27th.  Freeman is now out for the season, leaving an already terrible team even worse off moving forward.

The Hawkeyes are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  It's not going to get any easier for them moving forward without Freeman, and with one of the best teams in the Big Ten in the Purdue Boilermakers coming to town.

Purdue is 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games and playing its best basketball of the season right now.  The Boilermakers are 10th in adjusted offense and 30th in adjusted defense this season.  Iowa is 153rd in adjusted defense and far and away the worst defensive team in hte conference.  Bet Purdue Tuesday.

15* Marquette/St. John's FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 148.5

Two elite defensive teams square off in this huge Big East showdown tonight.  St. John's ranks 4th in adjusted defense and makes every team work on every possession ranking 331st in average length of defensive possession at 18.4 seconds.

Marquette is very similar ranking 16th in adjusted defense and 359th in average length of defensive possession at 18.9 seconds.  So both teams are going to really have to work for everything they get on offense tonight.

St. John's is 4-1 UNDER in its last five games overall with 150 or fewer combined points in six consecutive games, and 148 or fewer in five of them.  Marquette and its opponents have combined for 147 or fewer points in four of its last five games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pacers/Jazz OVER 238

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team going 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 234 or more combined points in all four games, including 250 or more in three of them.  The Pacers are fully healthy right now and a potent offensive team when that's the case.

The Utah Jazz are also fully healthy right now and a dead nuts OVER team when that's the case.  Makkanen (19.4 PPG), Sexton (18.7 PPG), Collins (18.0 PPG) and Clarkson (15.9 PPG) have all missed significant time this season, but all four are healthy right now.  The Jazz rank 29th in defensive rating this season.

The Pacers and Jazz have combined for at least 237 points in each of their last five meetings with the OVER going 4-1 in those five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +11

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have two losses to the Celtics by a combined 3 points in their last 10 games to show what they are capable of considering they were double-digit dogs in both games.

The Pelicans are fresh and ready to go tonight after having the last two days off.  They want revenge from a 132-129 (OT) home loss to the Nuggets in their first meeting this season.  Zion Williamson is healthy and expected to pay, and the Pelicans should be able to make up for the loss of Dejounte Murray with his presence on the floor.

The Nuggets are in a terrible spot.  They return home from a lackluster 5-game road trip in which they went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS with their two wins coming by 3 over the Hornets as 12.5-point favorites and by 3 over the 76ers as 9.5-point favorites.  They also lost by 10 at the Knicks, by 8 at the Bulls and by 29 at the Timberwolves.

The Nuggets have distractions to deal with back at home, and they will be playing in their 6th different city in 10 days.  They aren't a very deep team as it is, and now they are without two key depth piecers in Russell Westbrook (13.0 PPG, 6.4 APG) and Peyton Watson (8.1 PPG). Asking them to win by 12-plus points to beat us tonight is asking too much.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

20* Iowa State/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 146

Two of the best defensive teams in the Big 12 square off Monday and this total has been set too high.  Iowa State ranks 6th in the country in adjusted defense while allowing just 67.6 points per game and 41.3% shooting.

Kansas ranks 5th in the country in adjusted defense while allowing just 66.7 points per game in 38.5% shooting.  We saw this matchup once already this season with Iowa State winning 74-57 for just 131 combined points on January 15th.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

The UNDER would be 5-1 in Iowa State's last six games overall if not for OT against Arizona.  The Cyclones and their opponents have combined for 142 or fewer points at the end of regulation in five of their last six games.  Iowa State being without its best shooter in Moncilovic (10.3 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) has hurt offensively.  The Cyclones were held to 61 points by Kansas State last time out.

Kansas is the ultimate dead nuts UNDER team.  The Jayhawks are 15-4 UNDER in their last 19 games overall. The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with 131 or fewer combined points in seven of those eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -9

The Oklahoma City Thunder want revenge from a 97-81 loss to the Bucks in the NBA Cup Championship Game on December 17th.  They have had this game circled since.  They had their worst shooting game of the season hitting 34% as a team and 5-of-32 (16%) from 3-point range.

Now the Thunder get to take on a completely different Bucks team that has been extremely soft on defense of late.  The Bucks are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 13 at home to Memphis, by 26 at San Antonio, by 13 at Portland and by 10 at the Clippers.  They have allowed 132, 144, 125 and 127 points in those four losses with their lone victory during this stretch coming against the Jazz.

This is a terrible spot for the Bucks.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 132-119 home loss to Memphis last night.  Both Giannis and Lillard played 37 minutes last night.  They are without Bobby Portis, and his absence has been a big reason for their struggles.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City had yesterday off and will be playing just its 4th game in 11 days.  The Thunder couldn't possibly be more fresh than they are right now.  I fully expect them to run the tired Bucks out of the gym and to win by double-digits tonight.  The Thunder are 20-3 SU & 15-7-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 14.0 points per game.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/76ers OVER 223

The Philadelphia 76ers have had to go more small ball without their two best big men.  That has opened things up for their offense especially with the new big man in Yabusele showing he belongs in the NBA.  He is coming off 28 points against the Nuggets, and his ability to stretch the floor has been on display going 11-of-27 from 3-point range in his last six games.

The Celtics are fully healthy right now and a potent offensive team when that's the case.  They have scored at least 112 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  The 76ers have scored at least 117 points in four of their last five games, and 109 points or more in seven straight coming in.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 224 or more combined points in three of those four.  The 76ers and their opponents have combined for at least 221 points in six of their last seven games overall while going 5-2 OVER during this stretch.  The Celtics and their opponents have gone for at least 222 combined points in four straight games with the OVER going 3-1.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Celtics/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +11

The Philadelphia 76ers are grossly undervalued right now.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by 3 as 9.5-point dogs to the Denver Nuggets.  They upset the Kings by 13 as 8-point dogs, the Lakers by 14 as 4.5-point dogs, the Bulls by 12 as 3.5-point dogs and the Cavaliers by 3 as 9-point dogs.

The Boston Celtics have been grossly overvalued all season.  They are just 19-29-1 ATS in their 49 games.  They needed a buzzer beater to beat the Pelicans as 12-point road favorites last time out.  I think this is now a letdown spot for them.

The Celtics haven't fared well following a win.  In fact, the Celtics are 5-24-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a win this season.  They have a way of playing to the level of their competition, and they just aren't that motivated this season after winning the title last year.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

20* Ohio State/Illinois CBS No-Brainer on OVER 154

The Illinois Fighting Illini are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in adjusted tempo and 28th in adjusted offense while scoring 85.2 points per game this season.

The OVER is 8-3 in Illinois' last 11 games overall with 154 or more combined points in 10 of those 11 games.  That makes for a 9-1-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 154-point total, which is very low for a game involving Illinois right now.  They went for 154 combined points with Nebraska, 157 combined with Northwestern, 161 with Maryland, 158 with Michigan State and 163 with Indiana in their last five games coming in.

Ohio State has taken off offensively in its last two games with 82 points against Iowa and 83 against Penn State.  The Buckeyes are as healthy as they have been all season and have the firepower to keep up with the Fighting Illini in this one.  They rank 35th in adjusted offense this season.

Illinois beat Ohio State 87-75 for 162 combined points in their lone regular season meeting last season.  The OVER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -5

San Francisco wants revenge from a 91-82 loss at Washington State in their first meeting this season.  Now the Dons get to face the Cougars are home where they are a perfect 13-0 SU this season.

These teams are headed in opposite directions as well.  Washington State has lost three straigth games by 28 at Santa Clara as 5-point dogs, by 5 at home to St. Mary's and by 2 at Pacific as 11-point dogs.  The Dons have won three of their last four all by double-digits.  Bet San Francisco Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 159

Arkansas is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Razorbacks rank 35th in adjusted defense and just 101st in adjusted offense.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Arkansas' last seven games overall with 152 or fewer combined points in all seven games, and 139 or fewer in five of those seven.

The Razorbacks are even more of an UNDER team since losing their best guard in Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG) three games ago.  They have been lost offensively without him, and they have had to slow it down and rely even more on defense.

Speaking of injuries, the Kentucky Wildcats will be without G LaMont Butler (13.2 PPG) and could be without F Andrew Carr (10.4 PPG) for this one.  The Wildcats and their opponents have combined for 151 or fewer points in three of their last four games overall.  They are a little lost offensively right now without Butler.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Thunder OVER 233.5

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team going 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 223 or more combined points in nine of those 12 games.  The Kings are fully healthy right now and rank 4th in pace in their last 12 games.  They have scored 120 or more points in five of their last seven games coming in.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 9-1-1 OVER in their last 11 games with 225 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.  The Thunder have scored at least 115 points in nine of their 11 games during this stretch. OKC will be without one of its best defenders in Alex Caruso who doesn't provide a lot offensively.

The Kings and Thunder have combined for at least 231 points in seven of their last nine meetings, and 239 or more in six of those.  This has been a high-scoring series and will continue to be tonight given the very good health of both teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* WAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Valley +10

We have one of the most underrated teams in the country in the Utah Valley Wolverines catching double-digits against one of the most overrated teams in the country in the Grand Canyon Antelopes Saturday.  I'll gladly take the value and the 10 points with the Wolverines.

Utah Valley is 15-6 SU & 12-7 ATS this season.  The Wolverines have been dominant of late going 10-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes a 72-64 win as 3.5-point home dogs to Grand Canyon on January 9th in their first meeting this season.  They shot just 36.5% from the field and still won by 8.

Grand Canyon is a woeful 6-14 ATS this season.  They have been winning games but struggling to get margin as expectations are through the roof after what they did last season.  And now this is a very unfavorable spot for them despite wanting revenge.

Grand Canyon only has one day to get ready for Utah Valley after beating Seattle 83-74 as a 10-point home favorite on Thursday.  Meanwhile, the Wolverines have had the last six days off since beating Seattle 70-66 as 5-point road dogs on January 25th.  They will be the fresher, more prepared team.  Bet Utah Valley Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Notre Dame -7

The Miami Hurricanes are 1-16 SU in their last 17 games overall with upset home losses to Charleston Southern and Mount St. Mary's.  Their lone win during this stretch came against Presbyterian.  The Hurricanes are 3-16-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall as well.

Miami has rarely even been competitive.  The Hurricanes have lost six of their last seven games by double-digits.  They just lost by 11 at home to a bad, short-handed Virginia team on Wednesday.  I expect them to get blown out again today.

Notre Dame is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall since getting its best player in Markus Burton (20.4 PPG) back from injury.  With him in the lineup they are capable of beating anyone and they have shown that against the top teams in the ACC, while taking care of business against the bottom feeders.  They will do just that with ease today.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* UNC/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +14

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the North Carolina Tar Heels They have gone 1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with two losses by a single point.  They haven't lost any game by more than 15 points all season.

It's safe to say the Tar Heels will be 'all in' today against their hated rival in the Duke Blue Devils, who are grossly overvalued right now de to their 14-game winning streak.  They failed to cover their last two games winning by 7 at Wake Forest as 11.5-point favorites and by 10 at home against NC State as 22-point favorites.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series with the road team going 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  This number is simply too high tonight.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Houston ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +11.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They sit at 16-4 this season with their four losses coming by 1, 1, 4 and 5 points.  They haven't been blown out yet this season, and they aren't about to start Saturday.

This is a terrible spot for Houston.  The Cougars are a tired team after a two-game road trip at Kansas and at West Virginia.  They pulled off the miracle in double-OT to beat Kansas, and they staved off a big comeback by West Virginia.  Now they only have two days in between games to get ready for Texas Tech plus the flight from West Virginia back to Houston in between.  I think this is the ultimate flat spot for the Cougars.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Magic/Jazz OVER 215.5

The Utah Jazz have battled injuries all season.  But tonight they are expected to have each of their top eight scorers healthy and on the court.  All eight average at least 10 points per game.

The Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when they are healthy because they play fast, they rank 29th in defensive rating, and they are a pretty dangerous offensive team.  They will do enough to get us the OVER tonight.  Utah and its opponents have combined for at least 217 points in each of their last 10 games despite not being healthy during this stretch.  That makes for a 10-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 215.5-point total.

Orlando recently got Wagner and Banchero back and will start to gel more offensively with these two back healthy.  There's a chance they get Suggs back tonight as well.  Either way, I think the Magic are in line for one of their best offensive outputs of this season against this putrid Utah defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -7.5

The Indiana Pacers are rolling right now going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are getting back to playing the way they did that led them to the Eastern Conference Finals last season.  They beat San Antonio by 38 in Paris followed by a 14-point home win over Detroit in their last two games.

Now the Pacers are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off and playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  The Hawks are 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with six of those seven losses coming by 8 points or more.

The biggest proven for the Hawks right now are injuries.  They are without Jalen Johnson, Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic.  Trae Young pops up on the injury report on a nightly basis and clearly isn't 100% either, and he can't do it all on his own.

The Pacers own the Hawks going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The last three have been absolute blowouts winning by 42 at home, 18 on the road and 34 at home.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* MVC Total DOMINATOR on Valparaiso/Illinois State OVER 144.5

Valparaiso is 12-4 OVER in its last 16 games overall with 145 or more combined points in 13 of those 16 games.  Illinois State is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall with 142 or more combined points in four of those six games.

Valparaiso ranks 100th in adjusted tempo and 62nd in average length of offensive possession.  The Beacons are much better on offense (194th) than they are on defense (247th).  Illinois State is even more dramatic ranking 85th in adjusted offense and just 234th in adjusted defense.  The Redbirds rank 18th in effective FG percentage and 18th in 3-point percentage.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC Total DOMINATOR on Air Force/San Jose State UNDER 136.5

Both Air Force and Fresno State are dead nuts UNDER teams.  Air Force ranks 340th in adjusted tempo and 352nd in average length of offensive possession.  San Jose State ranks 273rd in adjusted tempo and 332nd in average length of offensive possession.

These teams met on January 11th with San Jose State winning 69-62 for 131 combined points.  The Spartans shot 49.1% from the floor and the Falcons shot 41.4%, and it would be difficult seeing either team shooting better in the rematch.  Air Force has shot 39.2% or worse in four of its last five games.  San Jose State has shot 44.2% or worse in seven of its last eight games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 Total DOMINATOR on George Mason/Davison UNDER 135.5

George Mason is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Patriots rank 318th in adjusted tempo, 182nd in adjusted offense and 20th in adjusted defense.  Amazingly, George Mason and its opponents have combined for 138 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 10 of their last 11 games, and 126 or fewer in eight of those.

Davidson also prefers to play slow ranking 259th in adjusted tempo.  We've already seen this matchup once with George Mason winning 69-57 at home for just 126 combined points on December 31st.  George Mason shot 55.8% in that game and is unlikely to shoot that well again in the rematch.  

The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings with 135 or fewer combined points in all four meetings.  The Patriots and Wildcats have combined for 135 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF PK

UCF has been a wagon at home this season.  The Knights are 10-2 SU at home with their only losses coming to Kansas and Houston.  And they nearly upset Houston in a 69-68 loss as 13-point underdogs to show what they are capable of.

In their last home game, the Knights crushed TCU 85-58.  They followed it up with a 91-87 road loss to Kansas as 12.5-point dogs and likely would have won that game if not for some questionable calls by the refs.  Now they will take out their frustration on BYU tonight.

This is a terrible spot for BYU.  The Cougars are coming off a huge 93-89 (OT) home win over Baylor for their 3rd straight win and cover in Big 12 play.  I think they are overvalued now, and this trip to the East Coast is a long one.  I don't expect them to handle it very well.

BYU is 1-3 SU in Big 12 road games this season with the lone win at Colorado, which is one of the worst teams in the Big 12.  They also lost at Utah, at TCU and at Houston by 31.  This will be their 2nd-toughest road game of the season to this point.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Louisville -8

The Louisville Cardinals are a wagon right now.  They have won 10 consecutive games with eight of those 10 wins coming by double-digits.  That includes road wins over Florida State by 14, Virginia by 20, Syracuse by 24 and SMU by 25.

The Cardinals are actually 8-1 ATS in all road/neutral games this season playing their best basketball of the season on the highway.  Well, Georgia Tech isn't exactly an intimidating road atmosphere.

The Yellow Jackets have been competitive against the bottom teams in the ACC but they have been blown out when stepping up in class.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming at home against lowly VA Tech.  They lost by 13 at Florida State, by 11 at home to Clemson, by 22 at SMU and by 7 at Syracuse.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* SEC Total DOMINATOR on Vanderbilt/Oklahoma UNDER 154.5

The UNDER is 7-2 in Vanderbilt's last nine games overall with 156 or fewer combined points in eight of those nine games, and 152 or fewer in seven of them.  Oklahoma and its opponents have combined for 150 or fewer points in five consecutive games, and 144 or fewer in four of those.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Auburn/Ole Miss ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +6.5

The Auburn Tigers are the #1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  We have seen that play out with Auburn going just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall with one of the covers coming by a 0.5-point.

Auburn escaped with 2-point wins at Georgia and at home against Tennessee before beating lowly LSU by 13 as 12.5-point favorites.  I think this is where their luck runs out against an Ole Miss team that has been one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and gets the most out of his teams.  He is doing that in Oxford as the Rebels are 16-5 SU & 12-8 ATS this season.  Three of their five losses have come by 3 points or fewer, so they are a tough team to get margin on.

Ole Miss is 9-1 SU at home this season with the lone loss coming 63-62 to Texas A&M after blowing a 4-point lead in the final seconds.  This will be the best home atmosphere for a game in Oxford all season with the No. 1 ranked team in the country coming to town.  I fully expect the Rebels to win this game outright.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Kansas State/Iowa State UNDER 145.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the Big 12 square off Saturday and this total has been set too high.  Iowa State ranks 6th in the country in adjusted defense while allowing just 66.9 points per game and 41.1% shooting.

Kansas State ranks 90th in adjusted defense while allowing 70.4 points per game on 43.9% shooting.  The Wildcats also prefer to play slow and are one of the worst offensive teams in the Big 12.

The UNDER is 7-3 in Kansas State's last 10 games overall with 145 or fewer combined points in eight of their last nine games overall.  The UNDER would be 4-1 in Iowa State's last five games overall if not for OT against Arizona.  The Cyclones and their opponents have combined for 142 or fewer points at the end of regulation in four of their last five games.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 145 or fewer combined points in all four meetings, and 133 or fewer in three of the four.  Iowa State is without its best shooter in Milan Moncilovic (10.3 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers), which has really hurt their spacing on offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Summit League Total DOMINATOR on South Dakota State/North Dakota OVER 158.5

North Dakota is 11-0 OVER in its last 11 games overall with 180 or more combined points five times.  The Fighting Hawks rank 88th in adjusted tempo, 159th in adjusted offense and 348th in adjusted defense.  They play fast and are one of the worst defensive teams in the country.

North Dakota is 16-4 OVER in all games this season.  The Fighting Hawks and their opponents have combined for at least 162 points in nine of their last 10 games.

South Dakota State also likes to play fast ranking 96th in adjusted tempo.  The Jackrabbits are a very good offensive team ranking 113th in adjusted offense and 47th in effective FG percentage.

We saw this matchup once already this season with South Dakota State winning 109-73 at home over North Dakota for 182 combined points.  North Dakota only shot 34.4% in that game so there is room for improvement for them to make up for the fact that South Dakota State isn't likely to score 109 again.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +15.5

The Kansas State Wildcats have quietly gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and are one of the most underrated teams in the Big 12 right now.  They lost by 4 as 7-point dogs to Texas Tech, by 10 as 14.5-point dogs at Kansas and by 8 as 11-point dogs at Baylor.  They also blasted WVU by 13 and Oklahoma State by 28 at home.

This is a very tough spot for Iowa State.  The Cyclones return home from a two-game road trip out West against the Arizona schools.  After a big comeback to beat Arizona State, they lost in OT at Arizona.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice as the Wildcats made a 60-footer at the buzzer just to force OT.

Iowa State is without its best shooter in Milan Moncilovic (10.3 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers), which has really hurt their spacing on offense.  The Cyclones are much easier to defend without having to worry about their outside shooting.  Kansas State will pack it in and rely on its defense, which has been superb of late in holding three of their last five opponents to 61 points or fewer.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Villanova -1

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Villanova and 'sell high' on Creighton Saturday.  The Wildcats are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, while the Bluejays are 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Yet Villanova is favored here, and favored for good reason.

The Wildcats want revenge from a 86-79 road loss as 5-point dogs at Creighton in their first meeting this season on December 21st.  Creighton shot 55% from the field and 14-of-25 (56%) from 3 and still only won by 7.  I have to think they'll have some shooting regression in the rematch on the road this time around.

Villanova is 10-2 SU at home this season.  Creighton is 3-3 SU in true road games with a 24-point loss at Georgetown and two of the road wins coming against lowly DePaul and Butler, two of the worst teams in the Big East.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Providence +14

This is one of my favorite spots in college basketball.  It's betting on revenge-minded road underdogs who lost a close game to their opponent at home in their first meeting of the season.

That's the case with this game today.  Providence lost 72-70 as 5.5-point home dogs to St. John's on December 20th.  Now the Friars are catching 14 points in the rematch on the road, which is a 8.5-point adjustment from that first meeting.  That's way too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.

This has been a closely-contested series.  In fact, each of the last six meetings between the Friars and Red Storm have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  Better yet, Providence hasn't lost by more than 14 to St. John's in any of their last 26 meetings.  That makes for a 26-0 system backing the Friars pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Bet Providence Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Pelicans OVER 231.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Pelicans are 13-6 OVER in their last 19 games overall with 232 or more combined points in 12 of those 19 games.  They have basically had to go a lot of small ball without a center, and now Daniel Theis is out tonight as well.  They are playing a lot faster during this stretch and they also rank 28th in defensive rating this season.

The Boston Celtics are 3rd in offensive rating and shoot a ton of 3-pointers this season.  They do play pretty good defense, but they haven't been nearly as lock down on that end as they were last season as they are going through a championship hangover.

This will be a rematch from a 120-119 win by the Celtics on January 12th earlier this month that saw 239 combined points.  It's not like either team shot the lights out in that game either with the Celtics shooting 44% as a team and the Pelicans 47%.  This rematch should sail OVER this 231.5-point total as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +11

Amazingly, the Boston Celtics are 0-16-1 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win.  They haven't covered in consecutive games since the first two games of the season!  They are clearly going through a championship hangover this season.

I don't see the Celtics being all that motivated to beat the Pelicans tonight, either.  They just beat them 120-119 as 14.5-point home favorites on January 12th earlier this month in their first meeting this season.

It will be the Pelicans who will be the more motivated team with revenge in mind.  The Pelicans are just 12-36 this season, but they have to be the most talented team in the history of the NBA with a 25% winning percentage or worse at this point in the season.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time right now, and I expect them to give the Celtics a run for their money tonight.

The Pelicans haven't lost any of their last 10 meetings with the Celtics by more than 12 points as all of these games tend to go down to the wire.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* Nuggets/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 231.5

The Philadelphia 76ers have had to go more small ball without their top two big men in Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond.  The result of small ball has been going 4-2 OVER in their last six games overall with 232 or more combined points in three of their last six.  They have scored at least 109 points in all six games.  They rank 10th in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating during this stretch.

The Denver Nuggets are fully healthy right now and a dead nuts OVER team when that's the case.  The OVER is 7-2 in Nuggets last nine games overall with 234 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  They have allowed at least 122 points in four consecutive games.  They rank 6th in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating in their last nine games.

The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings.  Denver beat Philadelphia 144-109 on January 21st for 253 combined points earlier this month.  I think this rematch sails OVER 231.5 combined points in the rematch tonight as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Toronto Raptors -2.5

The Toronto Raptors have quietly gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and are clearly playing their best basketball of the season.  A big reason for their success is the fact that they have remained healthy.  They have six outright wins as underdogs during this stretch.

Now the Raptors are 2.5-point home favorites over the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are favored for good reason.  The Bulls are watching their season slip away going 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Each of their last four losses came by double-digits, including at home to the short-handed 76ers and on the road to the Blazers.  The Bulls are without Zach LaVine due to personal reasons right now which is a big reason for their struggles.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers -13.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are pretty much fully healthy right now and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  Kawhi Leonard is showing he still has a lot to give after scoring 27 points against the Spurs last time out for his 6th consecutive game scoring 15-plus points since returning from injury.

The Clippers are 29-17-1 ATS this season as one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  And they did the majority of that without Kawhi.  Now that he's back in the lineup, the Clippers are legitimately one of the best teams in the NBA.  They are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with a 2-point loss at Phoenix and a OT loss to the Celtics despite not having all their top guys for that game.

But this is as much of a fade of the Charlotte Hornets as anything.  The Hornets just cannot catch a break in the injury department.  They are now without six of their top seven scorers in Ball (28.2 PPG), Miller (21.0 PPG, Williams (15.5 PPG, 9.4 RPG), Mann (14.1 PPG), Williams (10.4 PPG) and Martin (7.8 PPG).

We saw just how poor the Hornets were in their first game without all these guys last time out losing 104-83 as 1.5-point home favorites to the short-handed, terrible Brooklyn Nets.  It won't go any better for them tonight against the Clippers, who have won 10 consecutive meetings with the Nets.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Grizzlies OVER 236

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  The OVER is 9-3-1 in Grizzlies last 13 games overall with 234 or more combined points in 10 of those 13 games.  That includes 238 or more combined points in seven of their last nine coming in.

The OVER is 8-3-1 in Rockets last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between the Grizzlies and Rockets with 234 or more combined points in all four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Rockets/Grizzlies TNT ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -4

The Memphis Grizzlies will be max motivated tonight.  They will be paying with triple revenge after losing the first three meetings of the season to the Houston Rockets.  They lost the last two meetings by a combined 6 points.

The Grizzlies will also be motivated coming off one of their worst losses of the season in a 143-106 road loss to the Knicks.  They have had the last two days off to rest up and get healthy, and now they will be more healthy than they have been in any of their first three meetings with the Rockets this season.

Memphis is 19-5 at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the NBA.  Expect one of their biggest efforts of the season tonight against a Rockets team playing their 4th consecutive road game and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  Bet the Grizzlies Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Jazz OVER 224

The Utah Jazz have battled injuries all season.  But tonight they are expected to have each of their top eight scorers healthy and on the court.  All eight average at least 10 points per game.

The Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when they are healthy because they play fast, they rank 29th in defensive rating, and they are a pretty dangerous offensive team.  They will do enough to get us the OVER tonight.

The OVER is 12-6 in Timberwolves last 18 games overall with 226 or more combined points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois/Nebraska OVER 152.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in adjusted tempo and 24th in adjusted offense while scoring 85.8 points per game this season.  The Fighting Illini are even more of an OVER team without C Tomislav Ivisic (13.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.2 BPG) as they have had to go more small ball in his absence and are much worst off defensively.

The OVER is 8-2 in Illinois' last 10 games overall with 154 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 152.5-point total, which is very low for a game involving Illinois right now.  They went for 157 combined with Northwestern, 161 with Maryland, 158 with Michigan State and 163 with Indiana in their last four games coming in.

Nebraska is 4-2 OVER in its last six games overall.  The Huskers have really slipped defensively allowing 78 or more points in five of their last six games overall and 83 or more four times.  It's not going to get any easier for them defensively tonight against Illinois.

Both meetings last season flew over the total with 185 and 171 combined points.  Nebraska and Illinois have combined for at least 152 points in four of their last six meetings as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota State/North Dakota State OVER 154.5

North Dakota State is a dead nuts OVER team going 14-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Bison are scoring 82.0 points per game behind an offense that ranks 33rd in efficiency, 2nd in effective FG percentage and 1st in 3-point percentage in the entire country.

But the Bison are poor on the other end ranking 267th in adjusted defense.  The OVER is 7-2 in North Dakota State's last nine games overall with 154 or more combined points in seven of those nine games, and 160 or more in six of them.  So this total of 154.5 is very low for a game involving the Bison.

South Dakota State ranks 85th in adjusted tempo and 117th in adjusted offense.  The Jackrabbits rank 52nd in effective FG percentage and like the Bison, are much better on offense than they are on defense.  South Dakota State and its opponents have combined for at least 154 points in seven of their last nine games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Thunder/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 227

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 8-1-1 OVER in their last 10 games with 226 or more combined points in eight of those 10 games.  The Thunder have scored at least 115 points in nine of their 10 games during this stretch.

Steph Curry sat the front end of a back-to-back last night in a 114-103 win over the Utah Jazz.  The Warriors were confident they could beat the Jazz without him, and I'm anticipating he plays tonight.  If he does this total will only go up, but I still wouldn't hate it even if he doesn't play.  The Warriors are without Draymond Green, who is their most important defender.

The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Warriors and Thunder with 237 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  The only game that went under the total Curry did not play in.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Belmont/Illinois State OVER 153

The Belmont Bruins are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bruins are 14-6 OVER in all games this season.  Belmont games are averaging over 160 combined points per game in all games.  The Bruins rank 30th in adjusted tempo, 60th in adjusted offense and 256th in adjusted defense.

The OVER is 4-1 in Illinois State's last five games overall.  The Redbirds rank 86th in adjusted offense and 232nd in adjusted defense.  So both teams are leaps and bounds better on offense than defense.

Both the Bruins and Redbirds rank in the Top 42 in effective FG percentage on offense and 297th or worse in effective FG percentage on defense.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Belmont and its opponents have combined for 162 or more points in six of its last seven games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois-Chicago +8.5

Illinois-Chicago wants revenge from a 61-60 home loss to the Bradley Braves on January 11th less than three weeks ago.  The Flames led that game the entire way and led by 5 in the final seconds before giving up consecutive 3-pointers and losing at the buzzer.  They have not forgotten, and I fully expect them to give Bradley a run for its money tonight.

The Flames are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  They are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have been at their best on the road this season going a perfect 8-0 ATS in true road games not once losing by double-digits.  That's basically what it's going to take tonight for the Braves to cover.

This is a letdown spot for the Braves.  They won't be that motivated to beat the Flames a 2nd time.  They are fat and happy following five consecutive victories and 10 wins in their last 11 games overall.  But they have been very fortunate in close games during this stretch with six of those 10 wins coming by single-digits.  Bet Illinois-Chicago Wednesday.

15* Nuggets/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 239

The Denver Nuggets are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have gone for 236 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They are fully healthy right now and playing a lot more small ball which has them taking off offensively, but also being one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  The Nuggets rank 3rd in offensive rating and 25th in defensive rating in their last seven games.

The Knicks are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall with 243 or more combined points in six of those nine games.  They have scored 143 points in consecutive wins over Memphis and Sacramento.  The Knicks rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating this season.

Both teams are fully healthy right now and I expect them both to top 120 points in this one.  The Knicks beat the Nuggets 145-118 for 263 combined points in their first meeting this season in Denver.  It will be more of the same in the rematch in New York tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Kings/76ers OVER 225

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team going 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 223 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.  The Kings are fully healthy right now and rank 4th in pace in their last 12 games.  They have scored 120 or more points in five of their last six games coming in.

The Philadelphia 76ers have had to go more small ball without their top two big men in Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond.  The result of small ball has been going 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 232 or more combined points in three of their last five.  Paul George may return tonight after sitting out the front end of a back-to-back in a win over the Lakers last night.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are overvalued after a blistering start to the season that has them sitting in 1st place in the East.  They have gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.

The Cavaliers shouldn't be 8.5-point road favorites over the Miami Heat tonight considering they will be without three key role players in Wade, LeVert and Okoro.  It has since been announced that Darius Garland (21.7 PPG, 6.8 APG) will rest on the front end of a back-to-back here.  This line should have crashed more than it has since that announcement.

The Heat are getting no respect right now because of the Jimmy Butler drama.  But players are over it, and the Heat have won and covered their last two games coming in.  They are playing with a chip on their shoulder right now.  The Heat are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Cavs, so this has been a good matchup for them.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Toronto Raptors -6.5

The Toronto Raptors have quietly gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are clearly playing their best basketball of the season.  A big reason for their success is the fact that they have remained healthy.

The Washington Wizards are the worst team in the NBA at 6-39 SU & 17-27-1 ATS this season.  This is a terrible spot for the Wizards returning home from a 6-game road trip out West.  They lost all six games by 8 points or more and have now lost 14 straight overall with all 14 coming by 6 points or more, and 13 by 7 points or more.

Now the Wizards will be playing in their 7th different city in 12 days and I question how much they have left in the tank. They will also be dealing with distractions from returning home as they were last at home on January 16th.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Missouri State/Indiana State OVER 145.5

The Indiana State Sycamores are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 14-5 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 4th in adjusted tempo and 279th in adjusted defense.  This total of 145.5 is very low for a game involving the Sycamores.

That's especially the case when you consider this was a shootout in the first meeting with Missouri State this season.  Indiana State won 80-77 on the road for 157 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch with the Sycamores controlling the tempo playing at home tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU +12.5

The Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers accordingly that are very difficult to live up to.  It puts a massive target on their backs as well.

I think this is a clear letdown spot for Auburn after surviving a pair of close 2-point wins at Georgi and at home against Tennessee in their last two games coming in.  They will need to play a perfect game to cover this big of a number on the road at LSU tonight.

The LSU Tigers have been very competitive in SEC play despite their poor record.  They only have one loss by more than 12 points in conference play this season.  This despite playing a brutal schedule with four of their last five games on the road.

In their lone home game during this stretch, they beat Arkansas who had their best player in Fland for that game.  The Tigers only lost by 7 at Alabama over the weekend to show what they are capable of.  They will treat this like their 'National Championship' game, and I fully expect them to give Auburn a run for its money tonight.  

The home teams is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet LSU Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +8.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Houston Cougars.  They erased 6-point deficits in regulation and in OT to beat Kansas in double-OT over the weekend.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat West Virginia, who they already beat by 16 at home in their first meeting this season.

The Mountaineers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, especially in big games like this.  They already upset Iowa State 64-57 at home as 6.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 8.5 points to Houston, which is too much given the brutal spot for the Cougars.  Keep in mind they nearly lost outright as 13.5-point favorites at UCF in their previous road game before Kansas.  Bet West Virginia Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Virginia +1.5

The Miami Hurricanes are 1-16 SU in their last 17 games overall with upset home losses to Charleston Southern and Mount St. Mary's.  Their lone win during this stretch came against Presbyterian.  The Hurricanes have no business being favored over the Virginia Cavaliers tonight.

Miami nearly ended its losing streak over the weekend against a short-handed California team.  Matthew Cleveland caught fire in the 2H to lead the comeback and force OT on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  But in the end the Hurricanes came up short, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  They now head back home from a two-game road trip to California.  I think this team would rather be on the road than be dealing with all of the distractions back home about how poor of a season it has been.

After a brutal stretch of games, the Cavaliers now have a winnable game that I fully expect them to take advantage of.  They beat Boston College by 18 in their lone win over their last seven games.  They will relish this opportunity to get back in the win column.  Bet Virginia Wednesday.

20* Oregon State/Gonzaga ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 153

Gonzaga is a dead nuts OVER team going 14-7 OVER in all games this season.  The Bulldogs rank 38th in adjusted tempo and 17th in average length of offensive possession.  They rank 5th in adjusted offense, so they play fast and do so efficiently.

The problem for the Bulldogs is they play no defense this season.  They allowed 97 points to Oregon State and 103 to Santa Clara in two of their last three games.  Now they face this same Oregon State team that they lost 97-79 to in OT on January 16th.  It's worth noting that game was tied 83-83 at the end of regulation for 166 combined points.

Oregon State is also a very good offensive team ranking 45th in adjusted offense, 21st in effective FG percentage and 26th in 3-point shooting.  The Beavers have now scored at least 81 points in six of their last seven games overall.  I think they can get close to 80 and Gonzaga close to 90 tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +14.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 15-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico.  They then covered as 13-point dogs at Nevada before topping Wyoming 67-58 at home as 3-point favorites.

I love the spot for San Jose State because they will be the more rested team.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, while San Diego State will be playing its 3rd game in 7 days coming off consecutive road wins at Air Force (by 1) and at Nevada.

It's hard to trust San Diego State to get margin on teams because they are so poor offensively ranking just 112th in adjusted offense.  They also play slow and limit possessions, and San Jose State plays even slower, so this game won't see many possessions. In two meetings last season, San Jose State lost by 3 as 10-point home dogs and by 8 as 21.5-point road dogs to the Aztecs.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Warriors OVER 228.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 13th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They are reasonably healthy right now which is the key to them being an OVER team.  But they are without Walker Kessle (11.3 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 2.4 BPG), who is their most important defender.

The OVER is 5-2 in Jazz last seven games overall with 228 or more combined points in six consecutive games coming in.  Golden State is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall with 226 or more combined points in five of those six contests.

The Warriors are without their most important defender in Draymond Green right now.  Jonathan Kuminga is also a great, lengthy, athletic defender that they are missing right now.  They are going more small ball with Brandon Podziemski back and healthy.  Small ball favors OVERS.

Utah and Golden State have combined for at least 228 points in four of their last five meetings and six of their last eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on BYU -3.5

The BYU Cougars are 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 26.3 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and that was on display in their 80-52 win as 7-point home favorties over Cincinnati last time out.  They also beat Oklahoma State by 16 and Arizona State by 20 at home in Big 12 play this season.

This is a terrible spot for the Baylor Bears.  They will be playing their 2nd road game in 4 days both in altitude after a win at Utah on Saturday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Cougars tonight.  Baylor already has blowout losses at Iowa State by 20 and at Arizona by 11 in Big 12 play this season.  This one won't go much better for them tonight.

The Bears have been playing basically a six-man rotation due to injuries.  They are without Langston Love (6.5 PPG) and could be without Jeremy Roach (11.9 PPG) again tonight.  Playing in altitude will only add to their fatigue, and I expect BYU to run them out of the building tonight.  Bet BYU Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Notre Dame -8

Notre Dame wants revenge from a 86-75 road loss at Georgia Tech on December 31st in their first meeting this season.  The difference is Notre Dame did not have its best player in Markus Burton (19.9 PPG) healthy for that game.

Since Burton returned, the Fighting Irish have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They took NC State, Duke and Syracuse to the wire on the road, lost by 1 to UNC at home and crushed Boston College by 18 at home and Virginia by 15 on the road.

Georgia Tech is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season losing by 13 at Florida State, by 7 at Syracuse, by 22 at SMU and by 15 at Oklahoma.  Injuries are a problem for the Yellow Jackets right now as they are without G Reeves (9.3 PPG) and could be without G Mustaf (9.1 PPG), who is questionable.  Bet Notre Dame in revenge mode Tuesday.

20* Lakers/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia +4

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Lakers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a narrow 112-107 win at Charlotte last night.  It's worth noting the Hornets lost their best player in La'Melo Ball early in that game and the Lakers still struggled to put away the short-handed Hornets.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Lakers, who have won four straight coming in including wins over the rival Celtics and Warriors.  They weren't that motivated to beat the Hornets last night, and they won't be that motivated tonight either.  This will be the 9th game in 16 days for the Lakers and I question how much they have left in the tank.

The 76ers are missing some guys, but it hasn't stopped them from pulling off consecutive impressive upset wins over the Cavs as 9-point home dogs and the Bulls the very next night as 3.5-point road dogs.  Now the 76ers have had the last two days off so they will be fresh and ready to go, plus they will be motivated to beat the Lakers on National TV tonight.  Bet the 76ers Tuesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John's/Georgetown UNDER 141.5

St. John's beat Georgetown 63-58 at home on January 14th for just 121 combined points.  It will be another ugly defensive battle in the rematch here two weeks later.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and points will be hard to come by in this one.

Georgetown is a dead nuts UNDER team this season going 14-6 UNDER in all games.  The Hoyas are one of the most improved defensive teams in the country ranking 33rd in adjusted defense but just 159th in adjusted offense.  The Hoyas are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games overall with 141 or fewer combined points in nine of their last 10 games.

St. John's is an elite defensive team ranking 5th in defensive efficiency this season.  The Red Storm make teams work for everything they get ranking 334th in average length of defensive possession.  Their high-pressure style really slows games down to a crawl.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Iowa State/Arizona ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Iowa State +2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones suffered their letdown against West Virginia after beating Kansas by 17 at home.  They are going to be pretty 'spot proof' moving forward because they already tasted that defeat and clearly didn't like the taste of it.

The Cyclones have responded with a 108-83 home win over UCF and a 76-61 road win at Arizona State in their two games since that loss to WVU.  Now they get to stay out West for a short trip from Tempe to Tucson which is a big factor as to why I'm on the Cyclones tonight.

Arizona is pretty easy to figure out.  The Wildcats can't beat the best teams in the country, but they thrive against middling to bad teams.  The Wildcats already have six losses this season, including losses by 15 to Wisconsin, by 14 to Duke and by 16 to Texas Tech.  They are 1-5 against KenPom Top 43 teams with their lone win coming against overrated Baylor at home.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Iowa State Monday.

20* Clippers/Suns NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 224

Both the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns are as healthy as they have been all season.  The only players they are both missing are known more for defense than offense.  That's Kris Dunn (6.0 PPG, 42.3% FG's) for the Clippers and Ryan Dunn (7.3 PPG, 45.2% FG's) for the Suns.

The Clippers just hung 127 points on the Bucks in a 127-117 victory for 244 combined points.  The Suns have hung 117 or more points in five of their last seven games overall and 114 or more in eight of seven of their last nine.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 229 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Grizzlies/Knicks OVER 240.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  The OVER is 8-3-1 in Grizzlies last 12 games overall with 234 or more combined points in nine of those 12 games.  That includes 238 or more combined points in six of their last eight coming in.

The New York Knicks rank 2nd in offensive rating which has turned them into an OVER team this season.  They just combined for 263 points in a 143-120 home win over the Sacramento Kings last time out, a Kings team that profiles similarly to Memphis.

The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Grizzlies and Knicks.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +6

The Los Angeles Lakers are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  After upsetting the rival Boston Celtics at home on Thursday, the Lakers backed it up with a 118-108 win at Golden State on Saturday.  Those are arguably their two biggest rivals.

Now the Lakers have to travel clear out east to take on the Charlotte Hornets.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Hornets as they were to beat those two previous teams.  They are 'fat and happy' right now and ripe for the picking.

The Hornets have quietly gone 5-5 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are playing their best basketball of the season.  La'Melo Ball and Mark Williams are healthy and playing tremendous to lead the way.  THey are coming off a 31-point home win over the Pelicans as 1.5-point dogs.

The Lakers are 16-6 at home but just 9-12 on the road this season.  The Hornets have played much better at home than on the road this season.  They have outright upset home victories in three of their last four including wins over Phoenix and Dallas in the West.  Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Hornets OVER 222

The Charlotte Hornets rank in the Top 10 in pace in their last 10 games.  The key has been having PG La'Melo Ball healthy.  He pushed the tempo for them and makes everything go for them offensively.  The Hornets have scored at least 110 points in seven of their last eight games overall, including 120 or more in three of their last five.

The Lakers just hung 118 on Golden State and 117 on Boston in consecutive victories.  Those are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  Now the Lakers get a step down in class here against the Hornets.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Lakers and Hornets with 231 or more combined points in all six games.  We have a lot of room to spare here with this low total of 222 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bills/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on Buffalo +2

Note: If you receive this play by Monday, I recommend a 6-point teaser on the Bills +8 or better paired with Ohio State -2.5 or better.  If you receive this play after Monday, my 2nd-favorite option is a 6-point teaser with the Bills +8 or better paired with the Commanders +11.5 or better.

I was on the Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 against the Houston Texans last week.  I didn't think the Texans would be able to do enough offensively missing two of their top three weapons in Dell and Diggs to be able to keep up with the Chiefs.  I was fortunate to cash that Chiefs -7.5 ticket.

The Chiefs won 23-14 despite giving up 336 total yards to the Texans and managing just 212 themselves, getting outgained by 124 yards.  They benefited from two missed field goals by the Texans as well.  As I said, I was very fortunate to cash that ticket.

I think Kansas City's luck runs out this week.  They have been winning close games all season.  But the one game they didn't win where their starters played the entire way was November 17th at Buffalo.  The Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21.  They held the Chiefs to just 259 total yards and outgained them by 107 yards with 366 of their own.

The Bills are actually 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Chiefs with the two losses coming in OT on the road and by 3 at home.  They clearly have the recipe to beat the Chiefs, and now it's up to them to go out and execute it in the playoffs to get the massive monkey off their back.  I think they are ready to dethrone the champs and will be the extra motivated team to do so.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Kansas City with the lone loss being in OT with the Chiefs winning the coin toss.

A couple advantages for the Bills that really stick out are red zone offense and Josh Allen's ability to beat the blitz.  The Bills rank 2nd in red zone TD percentage at 69%, so they cash in on their opportunities.  The Chiefs can't run the ball in the red zone which is why they are just 24th in red zone TD percentage at 53%.  

The Chiefs are the 4th-most blitz-heavy defense in the NFL, and Allen ranks 2nd among QB's in EPA against the blitz with a 16-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  The Bills held Travis Kelce to 2 catches for 8 yards in that first meeting this season.  They know taking him out of the game is key KC's offensive success and they'll focus in on that again.  

Josh Allen had a MVP season and he's ready for his MVP moment in the playoffs by outdueling Mahomes.  He has led the Bills to 30 or more points in 10 of his last 12 games and the two he didn't he had 27 against the Ravens and 24 against the Patriots.  This is the best Buffalo offense since Allen was drafted.  This is one of the worst Kansas City offenses of the Mahomes era.  The Chiefs haven't scored more than 30 points in any game all season!

No NFL team has ever won three straight Super Bowls.  Every team going for a three-peat that has gotten to the conference championship game has lost.  This is where the run ends for the Chiefs. Most fans are tired of the Chiefs getting all the calls.  Well, Clete Blakeman is the head ref.  The Chiefs are only 6-5 with Blakeman as the head ref and have a losing record with him since 2018.  Home teams are just 5-11 SU the last 16 games Blakeman has reffed, so he doesn't mind pissing off the home fans.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Thunder/Blazers OVER 225.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have had to go more small ball here of late with injuries to their big men.  They are also going to be without their best perimeter defender in Lu Dort today against the Portland Trail Blazers.

The OVER is 8-1 in Thunder last nine games overall with 227 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  They have gone for 251 and 248 combined points in their last two trips to Portland.

The Blazers are fully healthy at the guard positions with Simons running the show.  They are playing well with four straight victories.  But they have played seven of their last eight games against teams that profile as under teams due to poor offense and good defense, plus slow tempo.  

The Blazers will open things up today against the Thunder because they are going to have to with the Thunder guaranteed to get their points.  This game should sail OVER this 225.5-point total. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Commanders/Eagles NFC Championship No-Brainer on Washington +5.5

Note: I also recommend a 6-point teaser on the Commanders +11.5 or better paired with the Bills +8 or better.

The Washington Commanders are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games overall with all four losses coming by 8 points or less.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect?

Everyone keeps making a big deal about Jayden Daniels being a rookie quarterback.  But he may be the best rookie QB we've ever seen.  Daniels has taken just one sack on 28 pressures and hasn't committed a single turnover in two playoff games with only one turnover-worthy play.

I would argue the Commanders have the better quarterback in this matchup and it's not close.  That's especially the case after Jalen Hurts came up limp with a knee injury against the Rams last week.  He wasn't effective at all throwing or running after suffering the knee injury, and there's no chance he's going to be fully recovered this week even though he is expecting to play.

The Eagles came into the playoffs with all 22 starters healthy from Week 1.  But that's not the case any more.  They lost their leading tackler in LB Nakobe Dean (128 tackles regular season) against Green Bay.  He has had 22 tackles in two games against Washington and is a big loss.  CB Quinyon Mitchell suffered a shoulder injury that knocked him out last week, and C Cam Jurgens (Back) and TE Dallas Goedert (ankle) have yet to practice this week as of Thursday and are questionable.

The Rams had two costly fumbles that basically gave the Eagles the game last week.  The Rams moved the ball up and down the field on the Eagles with 402 total yards.  The Commanders beat the Eagles 36-33 in their final regular season meeting, overcoming five turnovers which is almost nearly impossible.  Daniels threw 5 touchdowns on this Eagles defense, which was their worst performance of the season.

I know the Commanders can move the football and score on Philadelphia again.  I also think they can shut down Hurts and the passing game as AJ Brown just isn't fully healthy and has been a non-factor the last two weeks.  The key will be limiting Saquon Barkley, who has had two big games against Washington this season.  I think Dan Quinn will make the proper adjustments and stack the box and make the hobbled Hurts try and beat them through the air.  I don't think he can do it, especially since his mobility is now severely limited and the Commanders won't have to worry about him taking off and running.

The Commanders are full of confidence right now going 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.  They feel like they are unbeatable at this point, going into this game with a ton of confidence.  They beat two loaded offensive teams in the Bucs and Lions on the road, and now they won't be phased by going back to Philadelphia, a place they are very familiar.  The Eagles were fortunate to get by the Packers and Rams, and now they meet their match here in Washington.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Commanders/Eagles OVER 46.5

47 and 48 are key numbers on NFL totals.  Once this number dropped to 46.5 at Draftkings I pulled the trigger on the OVER.  I'm confident the Commanders are going to hang 24-plus, and there's a good chance the Eagles get 24-plus as well.

The Commanders have scored at least 23 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are fully healthy on offense aside from one offensive linemen, and they just hung 45 points and 481 total yards on the Lions last week.  Austin Ekeler being back healthy gives them another added dimension with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

The Eagles are going to have to throw the ball more today because the Commanders are going to do everything they can to stop the run.  That could create some bigger plays in the passing game than the Eagles have had to in these two playoff games.  The Eagles have scored at least 22 points in each of the last 13 games in which their starters played.

The game script has forced the Eagles to be very conservative on offense thus far.  They jumped out to leads against both the Packers and Rams.  The Packers were also hampered by injuries to three of their top receivers.  The Rams had plenty of success against them going for 402 total yards last week.  The Commanders will have similar success.

The Eagles are without LB Dean and CB Mitchell is banged up with a shoulder injury that forced him out of the Rams game last week.  Washington lost DT Payne who is their best run stuffer.  The Commanders put up 36 points on this Eagles defense in their final meeting.  That was a 36-33 shootout for 69 combined points.  We only need 47-plus in the rematch to cash this OVER. The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 40's and single-digit winds in Philadelphia today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State/Texas Tech OVER 147

Texas Tech is an elite offensive team.  The Red Raiders rank 7th in adjusted offense, 12th in effective FG percentage and 13th in 3-point percentage.  The OVER is 11-6 in all Texas Tech games this season.  They are scoring 82.9 points per game on 49.4% shooting.

Oklahoma State has had a shift in philosophy this season under first-year head coach Steve Lutz.  They are playing a lot faster ranking 49th in adjusted tempo.  They are a poor defensive team allowing 47.5% shooting to opponents.  The Red Raiders are going to hang a big number today leading the way in us cashing this OVER 147 ticket.

Oklahoma State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall combining for 154 points with BYU, 156 with Colorado and 170 with Arizona.  Texas Tech is 5-3 OVER in its last eight games with 152 or more combined points in five of those eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Wizards/Suns OVER 231

The Phoenix Suns are fully healthy right now which has been rare for them.  They are an elite offensive team when that's the case, and I fully expect them to hang a big number on the Washington Wizards tonight to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Wizards are an OVER team as long as Kuzma and Poole are healthy, and that's the case for them right now.  The Wizards rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.  They have allowed at least 120 points in six of their last eight games overall.

The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings and 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  The Suns beat the Wizards 130-123 for 253 combined points in their first meeting this season on January 16th just over a week ago.  It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on California -9

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next seven games without him to fall to 4-15 SU & 3-16 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-15 SU in its last 16 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  Each of their last five losses have come by double-digits, including a 35-point loss at Duke, a 43-point home loss to SMU and a 37-point road loss at Stanford in their last three games coming in.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play going 0-8 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall.

California is coming off two of its most impressive games of the season winning 65-62 at NC State as 6-point dogs and 77-68 at home over Florida State as 3-point dogs.  The Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They will relish this opportunity to put it on Miami tonight at home.  Bet California Saturday.

15* SEC Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma/Arkansas UNDER 149.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks have opened 1-5 in SEC play.  Making matters worse, they lost G Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG) to a season-ending injury in a loss at Missouri two games ago.  So now they have to try and adjust without their PG and second-leading scorer moving forward.

The Razorbacks are going to have to rely on defense even more now because they are going to be even more lost offensively without Fland.  Arkansas ranks 38th in adjusted defense and 89th in adjusted offense.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Razorbacks last six games overall with 139 or fewer combined points in four of those games.  They shot 31% in their first game without Fland.

Oklahoma has slipped a little defensively this season, but this total of 149.5 is simply too high tonight.  In their last road game, they lost 72-62 at Georgia for just 134 combined points while shooting 38.1% as a team.  This will be just their 3rd true road game of the season.  Arkansas is 3-0 UNDER in SEC home games this season with 139 or fewer combined points in all three.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Grizzlies OVER 241.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The OVER is 8-2-1 in Grizzlies last 11 games overall with 234 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.  That includes 238 or more combined points in six of their last seven coming in.

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team as long as Markannen and Sexton are in the lineup.  They are both expected to play tonight.  The Jazz are 13th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games overall with 237 or more combined points in each of their last three games.  The Grizzlies and Jazz combined for 250 points in their lone meeting earlier this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on Gonzaga/Portland OVER 160

Gonzaga is a dead nuts OVER team going 13-7 OVER in all games this season.  The Bulldogs rank 39th in adjusted tempo and 17th in average length of offensive possession.  They rank 6th in adjusted offense, so they play fast and do so efficiently.

The problem for the Bulldogs is they play no defense this season.  They allowed 97 points to Oregon State and 103 to Santa Clara in their last two games.  They did beat Portland 81-50 in their first meeting this season, but both teams are due some positive shooting regression after Gonzaga shot 42.6% and Portland 33.3% in that meeting.

Portland also likes to play fast ranking 126th in adjusted tempo.  The Pilots are one of the worst defensive teams in the country ranking 330th in adjusted defense.  The Pilots are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall including 162 or more combined points in each of their last three games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Portland +25

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall and I would argue they are the most overrated team in the country.  They are elite on offense but this is the worst defensive team of the Mark Few era.

That was on display in their last two games allowing 58.5% shooting to Oregon State in a 97-89 (OT) loss and allowing 53.7% shooting to Santa Clara in a 103-99 home loss in regulation.

Portland shot 33.3% in its 81-50 road loss to Gonzaga in their first meeting this season.  I have to think the Pilots are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch, and thus should be able to stay within this 25-point spread.  Bet Portland Saturday.

20* UConn/Xavier FOX No-Brainer on Xavier -1.5

The Xavier Musketeers have been rolling since getting their best player in Zach Freemantle (16.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG) back from injury.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their las four games overall including an upset road win at Marquette.

Xavier is pissed off after blowing a 16-point 2H lead to lose 79-71 (OT) at St. John's last time out.  That was a brutal beat as I had Xavier +8 in that game and the line closed +7 so most lost.  It was also a misleading final, and taking St. John's to OT on the road is impressive either way.

Now the Musketeers have their sights set on revenge from a 94-89 (OT) road loss at UConn on December 18th.  Freemantle didn't even play in that game and they took the Huskies to OT on the road.  UConn had Liam McNeeley (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) healthy for that game and he scored 14 points.  McNeeley has missed their last five games and likely will miss this one as well.  Bet Xavier Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Knicks OVER 232.5

The Sacramento Kings are getting back to their roots under interim head coach Doug Christie.  They are playing faster and their offense has thrived since upping the tempo.  The OVER is 8-2 in Kings last 10 games overall with 240 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They have scored at least 123 points in eight of those 10 games.

The New York Knicks profile as an OVER team this season thanks to ranking 2nd in offensive rating.  They are fully healthy right now with Josh Hart questionable the only concern.  But as long as Towns is healthy and on the court, the Knicks are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.

The Knicks will be looking to run more with the last three days off, so they are fresh and ready to go.  The Kings are always looking to run ranking 1st in pace in their last 10 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State -2.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico.  And last time out they covered as 13-point dogs at Nevada.

I love the spot for San Jose State because they have had the last week off and get another reprieve here with a very winnable game against one of the worst teams in the Mountain West in Wyoming.  The Cowboys are in a letdown spot off an upset loss at UNLV which put to end a three-game losing streak by 8 at home to New Mexico, by 41 at Boise State and by 16 at home to Colorado State.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Dakota/South Dakota State OVER 169

I've been riding these Summit League OVERS especially with South Dakota, my favorite OVER team in the league.  The OVER is 16-1 in all South Dakota games this season and most are sailing over the total.

South Dakota ranks 2nd in adjusted tempo, 98th in adjusted offense and 357th in adjusted defense.  So they play super fast and play no defense, which is what you want in an OVER team.  The Coyotes and their opponents have combined for at least 174 points in 10 of their last 13 games.

South Dakota State also likes to play fast ranking 80th in adjusted tempo.  The Jackrabbits do so efficiently ranking 122nd in adjusted offense and 57th in effective FG percentage.  They combined for 182 points with North Dakota, a team that profiles similar to South Dakota.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Long Beach/Cal Poly OVER 154

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 3rd in adjusted tempo and 1st in average length of offensive possession at 14.2 seconds.  They are also a terrible defensive team ranking 298th in adjusted defense.

Cal Poly is 13-6 OVER in all games this season.  They take on a Long Beach State team that has really been trending over of late.  The Beach have gone 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They rank 336th in adjusted defense, so these are two of the worst defensive teams in the country.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Summit League Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota/North Dakota State OVER 160.5

North Dakota is 10-0 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 180 or more combined points five times.  The Fighting Hawks rank 97th in adjusted tempo, 159th in adjusted offense and 352nd in adjusted defense.  They play fast and are one of the worst defensive teams in the country.

North Dakota State has huge splits on offense and defense.  The Bison are 33rd in adjusted offense, 2nd in effective FG percentage and 1st in 3-point percentage connecting on 41.3%.  But they are just 267th in adjusted defense, so despite playing slower they really profile as an OVER team.

North Dakota State is 13-5 OVER in all games this season while North Dakota is 15-4 OVER in all games.  The Bison are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games with 160 or more combined points in five of those eight games.  North Dakota and its opponents have combined for at least 162 points in eight of its last nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Duke/Wake Forest ESPN No-Brainer on Wake Forest +11.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Duke Blue Devils.  They have gone 12-0 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have benefited from an extremely soft schedule to open ACC play and I think they finally get a run for their money today.

Wake Forest is 15-4 this season including a perfect 10-0 at home this season where they upset North Carolina last time out.  They also crushed Stanford by 13, NC State by 18 and James Madison by 17 in their previous three home games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Duke winning both home meetings outright during this stretch.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU/UFC OVER 148.5

UCF is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Knights rank 33rd in adjusted tempo, 53rd in adjusted offense and 99th in adjusted defense.  They are 12-4 OVER in their last 16 games overall with 149 or more combined points in 12 of those 16 games.  This total of 148.5 is very low for a game involving UCF.

TCU profiles as an under team, but UCF will control the tempo playing at home.  And the Horned Frogs will relish this big step down in defensive class after facing a gauntlet of great Big 12 defensive teams.  They have faced Kansas, Baylor, Utah, BYU, Houston and K-State in their last six games.  In their last game against a team that profiles similar to UCF, they lost 90-81 at Arizona for 171 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Colorado/Arizona OVER 150

Arizona is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 63rd in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted offense.  The OVER is 3-1 in Arizona's last four games overall combining for 168 points with UCF, 151 with Baylor and 170 with Oklahoma State.  This total of 150 is very low for a game involving Arizona right now.

The Wildcats will control the tempo tonight playing at home.  But Colorado is playing faster this season at 155th in adjusted tempo.  The Buffaloes have sneakily gone 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have gone for 148 or more combined points in four of their last five games despite facing a plethora of Big 12 teams that profile as under teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MVC Total DOMINATOR on Illinois State/Bradley OVER 139.5

Bradley is playing faster this season and the Braves are one of the best shooting teams in the country.  They are scoring 81.2 points per game on 49% shooting while ranking 7th in effective FG percentage and 2nd in 3-point percentage at 41.2% as a team.

Bradley put up 89 points on Belmont and 118 on Indiana State in two of its last three games.  I expect the Braves to hang a big number on Illinois State, which ranks 263rd in adjusted defense.  But the Redbirds have been sneaky good on the other end ranking 79th in adjusted offense, 11th in effective FG percentage and 9th in 3-point percentage at 39.1%.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Arizona State +10

The Iowa State Cyclones have struggled on the road in Big 12 play.  They scored at the buzzer to force OT at Texas Tech in a 85-84 win.  They lost outright as 6.5-point favorites at West Virginia.  And they only beat Colorado by 10, which is a Colorado team that is currently on a 7-game losing streak starting with that defeat.

West Virginia is a recent common opponent of Arizona State.  The Sun Devils went on the road and upset West Virginia outright as 9-point road dogs.  They don't get blown out at home as their largest home loss came by 6 points.  Each of their last four Big 12 games have been decided by 8 points or fewer.

Arizona State is fully healthy with G Jason Sanon (12.8 PPG) upgraded to probable today.  Iowa State just lost its best shooter in Milan Momcilovic (10.3 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) and will be without him until nearly tournament time.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa/Indiana State OVER 155

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team going 13-3 OVER in its last 16 games overall.  The Sycamores rank 5th in adjusted tempo and 283rd in adjusted defense.  They have gone for at least 157 combined points with their opponents in 14 of their last 16 lined games, so this total of 155 is pretty short for a game involving the Sycamores.

Northern Iowa has always been known for defense and slow tempo.  But that's not the case anymore this season.  The Panthers are actually great on offense ranking 83rd in adjusted offense and terrible on defense ranking 202nd in adjusted defense.

Northern Iowa combined for 169 points with Illinois State and 153 with Valpo in two of its last three road games during a stretch where the OVER is 4-2 in their last six.  Indiana State will control the tempo at home and make Northern Iowa try and keep up with them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Pitt/Syracuse OVER 150

Pittsburgh is a dead nuts OVER team here of late.  The Panthers are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 151 or more combined points in all eight games.  This is the rare year where they are better on offense than defense, ranking 21st in adjusted offense but just 63rd in adjusted defense.

The Syracuse Orange rank 65th in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo playing at home.  The Orange profile as an OVER team ranking 126th in adjusted offense and only 147th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for at least 146 combined points in six of their last seven games overall.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 154, 181 and 166 combined points in the three games that went over the total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pelicans/Grizzlies OVER 240.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The OVER is 7-2-1 in Grizzlies last 10 games overall with 234 or more combined points in eight of those 10 games.  That includes 238 or more combined points in five of their last six coming in.

The Pelicans are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 232 or more combined points in all six games.  They have scored at least 119 points in all six games as well as CJ McCollum is playing the best basketball of his career to lead the way.

The Grizzlies and Pelicans combined for 256 points in their last meeting in a 132-124 win by Memphis on December 27th earlier this season.  It should be more of the same tonight with the way these teams are trending.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Pelicans/Grizzlies NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +12

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming 120-119 at Boston as 14.5-point underdogs.  They have upset road wins over Philadelphia and Chicago as well during this stretch.

CJ McCollum is playing the best basketball of his career to lead the way.  The Pelicans have scored at least 119 points in each of their last six games.  McCollum has scored 50, 45 and 38 points here recently.

This feels like a letdown spot for the Grizzlies.  They are getting a lot of respect after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They haven't beaten the Pelicans by more than 11 points in any of their last seven meetings.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing New Orleans pertaining to this 12-point spread.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Villanova/Marquette UNDER 143.5

The Villanova Wildcats remain a dead nuts UNDER team this season.  They rank 349th in adjusted tempo and 333rd in average length of offensive possession.  Few teams play slower than they do.

The Marquette Golden Eagles are an elite defensive team this season.  They rank 13th in adjusted defense.  They make opponents work for everything they get as they are 352nd in average length of possession defensively.  Opponents take 18.7 seconds per possession to get a shot up or turn it over.

The UNDER is 5-2 in Marquette's last seven games overall with 142 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in six of those seven games.  Villanova and its opponents have combined for 127, 132 and 134 points in three of its last five games.

These teams squared off three times last season including in the Big East Tournament, so they are very familiar with one another.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Villanova and Marquette have combined for 137 or fewer points in four of their last seven meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago Bulls +1.5

This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 123-117 loss in Sacramento last night.  They couldn't have shot it any better hitting 22-of-48 (46%) from 3-point range and still lost.

The Warriors are a tired, banged up, struggling team right now.  They are without Draymond Green and Jonathan Kuminga, and the loss of Kuminga has coincided with their recent struggles.  Podziemski, Anderson and Looney are all questionable. 

The Warriors are 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games with their two of their three wins coming by a combined 4 points, and the other being an 8-point home win over the lowly Wizards as 14-point favorites.  They have a 40-point home loss to Boston, an upset road loss at Toronto, a 12-point road loss at Indiana, a 16-point home loss to Miami and a 30-point home loss to Sacramento during this stretch.

Te Bulls are fresh and ready to go after having the last two days off.  There's a chance they get back to full strength tonight with both White and Dosunmu questionable.  They won 112-99 as 6.5-point road dogs to the Clippers last time out and get to stay out West for this one.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Bulls won outright as 8.5-point dogs and outright as 4.5-point dogs in their last two trips to Golden State.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* Celtics/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

This is a terrible spot for the Boston Celtics.  They needed OT to beat a short-handed Clippers team last night that was without Kawhi, Harden and Powell.  They managed to win 117-113 as 12.5-point favorites.

But now they are on tired legs after Tatum played over 42 minutes, White over 42 and Brown over 38 last night.  They were without Porzingis, Horford and Holiday and there's a chance they return tonight listed as questionable.  But either way, those three are tired, and the team as a whole is tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.

The Lakers have won three of their last four and are coming off a 23-point rout of the Wizards at home.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 6th game in 16 days.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and ready to take their swing at the defending champs tonight.

The Lakers are 2-3 SU but 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings with two of the losses coing in OT.  The Celtics rarely get margin on them as two of the three losses came by 4 points or less.  Their two wins came by 9 at Boston and by 15 at home.  The spot really favors the Lakers tonight.  Bet the Lakers Thursday.