15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Falcons +11

Cordarrelle Patterson has meant everything to this Atlanta offense this season.  He has 411 rushing yards and four touchdowns to go along with 41 receptions for 500 yards and five scores.  With Calvin Ridley out, his presence on the field is even bigger.  Their offense has been good with him, but without him it has been dreadful.

The Falcons are going to want revenge from a 25-48 road loss to the Bucs as 13-point dogs in their first meeting.  That game was much closer than the final score showed as it was a 3-point game in the 4th quarter before two straight pick-6's from Matt Ryan to blow it open.  That's unlikely to happen again, and I like the Falcons' chances of matching Tom Brady and company score for score in this one to stay within this massive 11-point spread.

The Falcons will never be out of this game because they will be up against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary that will be without Richard Sherman, Carlton Davis and Mike Edwards and could be without Jamel Dean.  The Bucs give up 67.7% completions on the season and their secondary is their weakness.

Tampa Bay is 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in road games this season with its three wins coming by 6 of Philadelphia, by 2 of New England and by 7 over Indianapolis.  So the Bucs haven't blown anyone out on the road this year.  They were fortunate to beat the Colts last week, who handed that game away by committing five turnovers in a 31-38 defeat.

Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after playing a game where 60 points or more were scored.  The Bucs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight December games and have been great at playing the role of spoiler down the stretch in recent years.  But they are still 5-6 this season and very much alive for the playoffs, so they have a lot to play for.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Texans +10

This is a terrible spot for the Indianapolis Colts.  After crushing the Bills on the road, they came back home and blew a double-digit lead against the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs in a 38-31 shootout defeat.  That loss will have taken a lot out of them, and now this is a sandwich spot with bigger games on deck against the Patriots and Cardinals.  They will be overlooking the Texans.

We saw what happens when a team overlooks Tyrod Taylor and the Texans two weeks ago.  They went into Tennessee and won outright as 10-point dogs.  And after coming back home and losing to the Jets, we are getting great value on the Texans again this week as double-digit home underdogs.  They will get up for this game against a division opponent just as they did for the Titans two weeks ago.

This Houston defense is improving, and the offense is much better with Taylor, who has been a covering machine throughout his career.  The Texans are allowing just 17.0 points per game in their last three games while forcing 11 turnovers.  They have not quit on that side of the ball.  Their offense can make enough plays with Taylor to keep this game close, too.

Indianapolis beat Houston 31-3 at home in their first meeting, making this a revenge game for the Texans and adding to their motivation.  But that game was with Davis Mills at QB for the Texans, and it was much closer than the final score showed.  Indianapolis only outgained Houston by 35 yards in that contest.  But the Texans beat themselves by being -3 in turnovers and failing to score on several red zone trips.  Taylor won't make the same mistakes that Mills did.

Houston is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more.  The Texans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games following a home loss.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Houston) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9.5

The Golden State Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Devin Booker-less Phoenix Suns last night.  They are being asked to win by double-digits to beat us tonight, and I think that's asking too much.

The Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with an 8-point home win over Boston, a 17-point home win over Washington and a 31-point road win at Portland all outright as underdogs.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.

The Spurs are 13-3 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days over the last two seasons.  San Antonio is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  It's time to 'sell high' on the tired Warriors tonight.  Roll with the Spurs Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls have gotten healthy with Nikola Vucevic back and are starting to play up to their potential again.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming to the Heat by 3.  They beat the Magic by 35 on the road, the Hornets by 14 at home and the Knicks by 4 on the road.

While the Bulls are rested and ready to go after having yesterday off, the Nets are tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-105 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, who were without Karl-Anthony Towns.  They are already without Joe Harris and Kyrie Irving, so they are short-handed.  Kevin Durant played 37 minutes, James Harden 35 and Lamarcus Aldridge 34 last night.

Chicago already crushed Brooklyn 118-95 at home in their first and only meeting this season.  The Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* Alabama/Gonzaga ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Alabama +9.5

Alabama is really getting disrespected here.  The Crimson Tide are one of the best teams in the country, and oddsmakers are asking Gonzaga to win by double-digits Saturday to beat us.  That's asking too much.

Gonzaga has shown vulnerabilities in its last two games.  They lost outright to Duke as 9-point favorites, then came back with just a 9-point win over Tarleton State as 31-point favorites.  Now they are up against an Alabama team that definitely has some of the best guards in the country that will be hard to deal with.

Alabama is 6-1 this season with a 4-point loss to Iona in upset fashion.  But the other six games have been very impressive in going 5-1 ATS in those six games.  That includes a 32-point win over Miami, a 9-point win over a good Drake team, a 16-point win over a good South Dakota State team, a 27-point win over a good Oakland team and a 29-point win over a quality Louisiana Tech team.  Those aren't big names, but they are some of the better teams in their mid-major conferences.

Alabama is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good rebounding teams that average 40 or more boards per game.  Nate Oats is 11-2 ATS when the total is 160 or higher as the coach of Alabama.  Mark Few is 1-8 ATS after two straight games forcing 8 or fewer turnovers as the coach of Gonzaga.  Take Alabama Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2

Saint Louis is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-1 SU & 5-2 ATS start this season with their only loss coming on the road to Memphis.  They brought back almost everyone from last year and a ton of talent for Travis Ford.  And they have impressive road wins over Stephen F. Austin and Boise State in their last two games coming in.

UAB is getting way too much respect after opening 6-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS against a soft schedule.  They lost to the two best teams they faced in South Carolina and San Francisco, neither of which are as good as Saint Louis.  And the six wins have come against suspect competition as they have been a double-digit favorite in all six.

Saint Louis has a huge home-court advantage and is 4-0 at home this season while winning by 41.8 points per game.  The Billikens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference home games.  Saint Louis is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 home games overall.  Take Saint Louis Saturday.

15* Houston/Cincinnati AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Houston +10.5

Cincinnati has all the pressure in this game.  Win and they become the 1st Group of 5 program to make the four-team playoff.  Lose and they don't.  That is a lot to deal with, and I don't expect them to handle it well.  They no longer need style points either, so don't look for them to try and run it up if they get the opportunity.  They just need to win.

Houston has quietly reeled off 11 straight victories since a season-opening loss to Texas Tech.  The Cougars have been flying under the radar.  And I'm sure they feel disrespected here and ready to try and prove a point.  They will also be playing freely knowing they aren't going to the four-team playoff, win or lose.  Look for one of their best performances of the season.

These teams aren't that far off statistically.  Houston is outgaining teams by 132 yards per game behind a dominant defense that gives up just 290 yards per game.  Cincinnati is outgaining opponents by 128 yards per game with a dominant defense that gives up 302 yards per game.  This will be a defensive battle, and I think getting double-digits is a nice value in this instance.

Houston QB Clayton Tune is also quietly having a great season.  He ranks as the 3rd-best QB in the country according to pro football focus behind Alabama's Bryce Young and Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett.  Tune is completing 68.7% of his passes for 3,013 yards with a 26-to-8 TD/INT ratio.

Houston is 6-0 SU in true road games this season and outscoring opponents by a whopping 26.5 points per game.  The Cougars are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs.  Houston is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS loss.  The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Houston Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Line Mistake on Colorado State -4

Colorado State is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  They returned all five starters this season from a team that barely missed out on the NCAA Tournament last year.  They are on a mission to get to the big dance this year, and a win over St. Mary's would go a long way.

The Rams have handled their business thus far in their 8-0 start that has seen them outscore opponents by 18.1 points per game.  They beat Creighton by 14 and Oral Roberts by 29, two NCAA Tournament teams from last year.  They are coming off a 31-point win over Arkansas-Little Rock and have had the last two days off.  

St. Mary's will be playing its 2nd road game in 3 days after a narrow win at Utah State, 60-58 on Thursday.  Playing in altitude here will be tough for the Gaels.  It will also be their 6th game in 13 days.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Appalachian State/Louisiana UNDER 53

Talk about familiarity.  Appalachian State and Louisiana have been battling for Sun Belt titles for the better part of the last five years.  This will be their 7th meeting since 2018 and the 3rd time in the last four years that they will be meeting in the Sun Belt Championship Game while playing twice in the same season.  

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  These teams have combined for 54 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings, and 49 points or fewer in four of those.  The UNDER is 5-1 in those six meetings.  Louisiana did beat Appalachian State 41-13 in their first meeting this season.  While their defense was dominant in holding the Mountaineers to 211 total yards, their offense wasn't as good as the 41 points showed.  They had several easy scores set up by four turnovers by the Mountaineers.  That's not going to happen again.

Both teams live off running the football and playing defense.  Appalachian State averages 41 rush attempts and 29 pass attempts per game, while Louisiana averages 39 rush attempts and 28 pass attempts.  Louisiana allows just 18.5 points  per game, 348.4 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  Appalachian State allows 18.9 points per game, 319.6 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.

The UNDER is 14-2 in Rajin' Cajuns last 16 home games.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Louisiana's last nine home games vs. a team with a 58% completion percentage or better.  The UNDER is 36-15-1 in Rajin' Cajuns last 52 conference games.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Mountaineers last 11 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on SIU-Edwardsville +10

SIU-Edwardsville is just 2-5 SU this season but all five losses were decided by 13 points or less and they have faced some stiff competition.  They only lost by 11 at Marquette as 21-point dogs, upset Youngstown State on the road as 5-point dogs and only lost at Creighton by 5 as 21-point dogs.

Now SIU-Edwardsville is catching 10 points against a down Bradley team that is just 3-5 this season with two wins over Missouri S&T and Maine.  They lost by 16 to South Dakota State, by 12 to Howard as 12.5-point favorites, by 3 to Brown as 3.5-point favorites and by 8 to Duquesne as 2-point dogs.  They did pull the upset over Northern Iowa in their MVC opener last time out by 2, but that makes this a letdown spot for them today.

SIU-Edwardsville is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  The Braves are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Bradley is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite.  Roll with SIU-Edwardsville Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Kent State -3

It's a minor miracle Northern Illinois even made the MAC Championship Game this season.  They went 8-4 with seven wins by one score with the only exception being their victory over lowly FCS Maine.  That includes four wins by 2 points or fewer.

The numbers show the Huskies are no better than an average team to possibly below average.  They are getting outscored by 2.7 points per game on the season and outgained by 26.3 yards per game.  They have a hobbled QB in Rocky Lombardi who sat out the regular season finale in a 21-42 loss to Western Michigan in which they were outgained by 345 yards.

Kent State is one win away from its first MAC Championship since 1972 and second in school history.  The Golden Flashes have put themselves in this position by going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss at Central Michigan.  That includes their 52-47 win over Northern Illinois in their first meeting.

The Huskies racked up 681 total yards on this soft Northern Illinois defense in that first meeting.  It's a NIU defense that has just 14 sacks all season, so they get no pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Dustin Crum threw for 322 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 72 yards and two scores in that first meeting.  The Golden Flashes rushed for 359 yards as a team.

Kent State is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  The Golden Flashes are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 450 or more yards per game.  Northern Illinois is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a neutral field underdog.  The Golden Flashes are 9-1 ATS in their last nine games after gaining more than 450 yards in their previous game.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

20* Suns/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5

The Suns and Warriors just played on Tuesday with the Suns winning 104-96 for 200 combined points.  Now they play again just three days later here Friday, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

The Suns are going to be severely hampered on offense now with the loss of leading scorer, Devin Booker.  He got hurt against the Warriors in the first half of that game and missed last game against Detroit.  He will be out again tonight, and with points going to be hard to come by for the Suns, they are going to have to rely on their defense.

Speaking of defense, these are the top two defensive teams in the NBA, which explains why they have the two best records in the NBA.  The Warriors rank 1st in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Suns rank 2nd, allowing 101.4 points per 100 possessions.

The Warriors are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games after a combined score of 205 points or less.  Golden State is 32-13 UNDER In its last 45 games after playing its last game on the road.  The Warriors are 8-0 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Golden State is 8-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging at least 23 assists per game this season.  The UNDER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on Utah -2.5

Utah has never won a Pac-12 Championship.  They have won the Pac-12 South now three of the last four years.  But they came up shot in their two title games to Washington in 2018 and Oregon in 2019.  The Utes will be highly motivated to hand Kyle Whittingham his first Pac-12 Championship this weekend.

That's why I'm not worried about any type of letdown that would occur from having already beaten Oregon 38-7 as 3-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  It will be more of the same here as Utah shuts down the Oregon rushing attack, forcing the inaccurate Anthony Brown to try and beat them through the air.

In that first meeting, Utah held Oregon to just 63 rushing yards on 23 attempts and 294 total yards overall.  The Utes did what they wanted to on the ground, rushing for 208 yards and gaining 386 total yards for the game.  They played a vanilla second half after taking a 28-0 lead or they could have won by more.

This Utah team has been a different animal since Cam Rising took over at quarterback.  They have won five straight and eight of their last nine games overall with all eight wins coming by 9 points or more.  They have outgained seven of those nine opponents with the only exceptions being -7 against USC and -13 against Oregon State.  

Rising has a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio through the air, but his dual-threat ability has been what makes him tough to tame.  He has rushed for 346 yards and five scores while averaging 6.4 per carry.  In all honesty, these teams are pretty even outside of quarterback play.  Their season-long stats are about the same offensively with Utah having the slight edge on defense.  Rising over Brown, the edges on defense and special teams, and Whittingham over Cristobal makes Utah an easy choice as only a 2.5-point favorite.

Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. teams that complete 62% of their passes or better.  The Utes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games, and 34-13 ATS in their last 47 after allowing 125 or less in three straight.  The Ducks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win.  Bet Utah Friday.

15* 76ers/Hawks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +1.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers after going just 3-9 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They played the majority of those games without Joel Embiid.  But they are playing better with him back of late, and I look for them to upset the Atlanta Hawks tonight.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Hawks, who are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  But injuries have hit the Hawks of late as they are without De'Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic and could be without Cam Reddish, who is questionable.

Every time the 76ers see the Hawks this season they are going to want revenge after getting knocked out of the playoffs by Atlanta last year.  That showed in their 122-94 home win as 3.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  And now they will go on the road and exact some more revenge on the Hawks with an outright victory.  Take the 76ers Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They have lost three straight with a blowout loss to the Bucks and two tough losses to the Hawks and Timberwolves by a combined 5 points.  They will be highly motivated for a victory tonight, and they won't be taking the short-handed Miami Heat lightly because of it.

Miami is without its two best players in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.  That explains their ugly losses in their last two games with a 111-120 home loss as 3-point favorites against the Nuggets followed by an 85-111 home loss to the Cavaliers as 2.5-point favorites.  They just aren't a very good team without these two.

The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Pacers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Indiana is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois -8

The Illinois Fighting Illini were expected to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  But they were without their best player in Kofi Cockburn for the first three games, and it has taken time for them to form some chemistry.

Illinois opened 2-2 with upset losses to Cincinnati and Marquette.  That loss to Cincinnati was Cockburn's first game back.  They have since reeled off three straight victories over Kansas State, UTRGV and Notre Dame.  But at just 2-5 ATS this season, this is a good time to 'buy low' on them tonight in their Big Ten opener against Rutgers.

Rutgers is just 4-3 SU & 1-5-1 ATS this season.  It's clearly a rebuilding year for the Scarlet Knights, who lost a lot in the offseason.  They have so many concerning results.  They lost outright as favorites to DePaul (-2.5), Lafayette (-19) and UMass (-1.5).  They struggled to beat Lehigh by 3, Merrimack by 13 and New Jersey Tech by 14.  This clearly isn't a very good team, and this will be by far their toughest test of the season after playing an easy early schedule.

Illinois is 32-12 ATS in its last 44 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  This one has double-digit blowout written all over it folks.  Roll with Illinois Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +13

You're paying a tax tonight to back the Phoenix Suns due to their 17-game winning streak.  If there was ever going to be a letdown spot, this is the one because they are coming off a huge National TV win over Golden State on Tuesday, and now they have the Warriors on deck tomorrow night.

The Suns will be trying to conserve their energy in this game against the Pistons, especially since they just lost their best player in Devin Booker to injury against the Warriors last time out.  They are now short-handed and there's no way they should be 13-point favorites without Booker.

While it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Suns, it's also a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  They have lost seven straight coming in, but five of them came by 11 points or fewer against some very good competition.  The Pistons are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games overall and have been consistently catching too many points, including tonight.

Detroit is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games following three or more consecutive losses.  The Pistons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a blowout loss by 15 points or more.  Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.  The Pistons are 26-9 ATS in the last 35 meetings, including 7-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Phoenix.  Bet the Pistons Thursday.

15* Cowboys/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -5

The Dallas Cowboys should get right tonight after losing two straight and three of their last four.  They get several key players back from injury this week, not the least of which are their top two receivers in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb.

The Cowboys should score at will on a Saints defense that is mostly responsible for going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were upset at home as 7-point favorites against the Falcons, lost by 2 on the road to a banged-up Tennessee team, lost by 11 as 3-point dogs at Philadelphia and lost by 25 as 7-point home dogs to the Bills.

This New Orleans defense gave up 40 points to Philadelphia and 31 more to Buffalo.  I think the Cowboys will get to 30 in this game, and that will be enough to cover this 5-point spread because this New Orleans offense is broken as well.

Trevor Siemian went 0-3 as a starter and now the Saints are likely to turn to the hobbled Taysom Hill in desperation.  They have terrible weapons on the outside, and Alvin Kamara is questionable to return this week.  They have several injuries on defense and on offense that have held them back in recent weeks and continue to be a problem.

Dallas is 6-0 ATS vs. NFC opponents this season.  New Orleans is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following a home loss by 10 points or more.  The Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Dallas is getting right now in the health department, and New Orleans is broken.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 215

The Memphis Grizzlies are going to be without JA Morant for the foreseeable future.  They are definitely an UNDER team without him.  That showed last time out in their 98-91 win over the Raptors for 189 combined points.  And this total has been set way too high tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Thunder are a tired team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a loss to Houston last night.  I think that fatigue hurts them more on offense than defense.  The Thunder are tied for last in the NBA in offensive efficiency this season.  They are in the middle of the pack (15th) in defensive efficiency and have been underrated on that end.

The UNDER is 37-18 in Thunder last 55 road games.  The UNDER is 66-29-1 in Thunder last 96 games as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 22-9 in Grizzlies last 31 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Youngstown State +5.5

Wisconsin-Milwaukee has no business being a 5.5-point favorite over Youngstown State tonight, let alone a favorite at all.  The Panthers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season despite playing a very easy schedule.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee opened with a win over North Dakota.  They have since lost five straight despite being favorite in three of them.  They lost by 6 to Eastern Kentucky as 5-point home favorites, by 36 to Florida as 16.5-point road dogs, by 14 to Bowling Green as 2.5-point neutral court favorites, by 13 to Yale as 7-point neutral court underdogs and by 4 to Alcorn State as 10-point home favorites.

Youngstown State is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS.  They were competitive in all three losses.  They covered in a 16-point loss at Penn State as 17-point dogs.  They only lost toby 3 to SIU-Edwardsville and by 5 to Niagara, two teams that are underrated in my book.

The Penguins are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  Youngstown State is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Milwaukee is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite.  The Panthers are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games as home favorites.  Milwaukee is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Youngstown State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Providence +3

Texas Tech is 6-0 this season and has yet to play a true road games.  The Red Raiders have played the 357th-ranked schedule in the country with their six wins coming against North Florida, Grambling, Prairie View A&M, Incarnate Word, Nebraska-Omaha and Lamar.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Red Raiders after this start against this soft schedule.  Now they will be playing their first true road games against a Providence team that is battle-tested and has gotten through the 154th-ranked schedule at 6-1.  That includes upset road wins over Wisconsin on the road and Northwestern on a neutral with their lone loss coming to Virginia on a neutral.

Texas Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Red Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after allowing 60 points or less.  Texas Tech is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 vs. Big East opponents.  The Red Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.  Providence is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less.  The Friars are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Providence Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -4

Northern Iowa is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  But they had some bad losses early when they were injured.  Now they are fully healthy, and they played up to their potential when they had a 1-point lead with under three minutes left at Arkansas as 12.5-point dogs.  The Panthers went on to lose that game by 13 in one of the worst beats of the college basketball season.

But Northern Iowa played up to its potential last time out, upsetting previously unbeaten and ranked St. Bonaventure 90-80 on the road as 10-point dogs.  They will be playing just their 2nd game since November 17th tonight, so they are rested, fully healthy and ready for this Missouri Valley opener against Bradley.

The Braves are way down this season.  They are just 2-5 SU & 2-4 ATS with their two wins coming against Missouri S&T and Maine.  They have losses to Howard by 12 as 12.5-point favorites, South Dakota State by 16 as 9-point dogs, Brown by 3 as 3.5-point favorites and Duquesne by 8 as 2-point dogs.  They won't be able to hang with a team the caliber of the Panthers tonight.

Bradley is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games after going under the total in its previous game.  The Braves are 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Take Northern Iowa Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Wichita State +7.5

Wichita State is 6-1 this season with its only loss to Arizona by 4 points as 9.5-point dogs.  That's a very good Arizona team.  They are battle-tested also having road wins over Missouri and UNLV.  And now they are catching too many points tonight against the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

The Cowboys are also 6-1 but getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  They have narrow wins over NC State by 6 and Oral Roberts by 1.  They also have an upset loss to Oakland as a 17-point favorite.  They have played a much softer schedule, too.  The Cowboys have no business laying this big of a number to the Shockers tonight.

Wichita State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season.  The Shockers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Wichita State is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games as an underdog.  The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Wichita State Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers PK

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four to the Lakers, Bucks and Timberwolves.  Look for them to get back in the win column here as this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Pacers as a PK at home against the Atlanta Hawks.

It's also a good time to 'sell high' on the Hawks, who have gone 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But most of that success has come at home.  The Hawks are just 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS on the road this season.  And they are without De'Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic tonight and could be without Cam Reddish, who is questionable.

Atlanta is 1-9 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 108 points per game or fewer this season.  The Hawks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Indiana is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games.  The Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Wizards OVER 215.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been a great offensive team since De'Angelo Russell returned to the lineup.  They have scored 100 points or more in 12 of their last 13 games.  They have averaged 116.0 points per game in their last seven games with Russell.

Washington has scored at least 99 points or more in six straight.  But the Wizards have struggled on the other end, allowing 99 points or more in seven straight.  Look for a shootout between these two teams tonight, especially when you consider their recent head-to-head history.

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 227 or more points at the end of regulation in all seven.  The Timberwolves and Wizards have averaged 242.3 combined points at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, which is nearly 27 points more than tonight's posted total of 215.5.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Kings UNDER 227.5

The Lakers and Kings just played on Friday in a 141-137 (OT) victory in triple-overtime by the Kings.  That game was tied 100-100 at the end of regulation for just 200 combined points.  And now we are getting a massive 227.5-point total in the rematch.

There's clearly value with the UNDER tonight.  Plus, these teams are obviously very familiar with one another after playing just a few days ago, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Look for this game to come well short of this 227.5-point total at the end of regulation tonight.

The Lakers are 27-13 UNDER in their last 40 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Kings are 30-14 UNDER in their last 44 games after playing their last game on the road.  The UNDER is 13-6-1 in Lakers last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 27-11-1 in Kings last 39 games playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 35-15-1 in Kings last 51 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +9.5

The Detroit Pistons are playing much better basketball here of late now that they are getting healthy and forming some chemistry.  They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite a brutal schedule.  They lost by 3 to the Warriors, by 8 to the Heat, by 21 to the Bucks, by 11 to the Clippers and by 4 to the Lakers.

Now they are catching 9.5 points against a struggling Portland Trail Blazers team and actually take a big step down in class here.  Asking the Blazers to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking a lot.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, losing by 4 to the Kings, by 15 to the Warriors and by 22 to the Jazz.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing in Utah last night as well.

Detroit is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following four or more consecutive losses.  The Pistons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Detroit is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Suns TNT ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -2

The Phoenix Suns will be motivated to earn their 17th consecutive victory tonight.  I think we are getting them at a discount as only 2-point favorites at home against the Golden State Warriors, who have the best record in the NBA.  But you are paying a tax on the Warriors now moving forward due to that record.

The Suns are a lot healthier than the Warriors are right now, too.  Phoenix is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games after allowing more than 100 points in its previous game.  The Suns are 50-24-1 ATS in their last 75 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Suns Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on North Dakota State +9.5

North Dakota State is one of the better mid-major teams in the country.  They returned all five starters this year and are off to a 4-2 start with their only losses coming on the road to UNLV (by 2) and Arizona.  They can hang with Creighton tonight.

This is one of the worst Creighton teams of the Greg McDermott era.  While they are 6-1 SU, they are just 2-5 ATS.  They have concerning close wins over SIU-Edwardsville by 5 as 21-point favorites, Southern Illinois by 2 as 6-point favorites, Kennesaw State by 7 as 19-point favorites and Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 13 as 34-point favorites.  North Dakota State is better than all four of those teams.

Th Bison are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 road games following an ATS loss.  North Dakota State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a win where they failed to cover the spread.  Roll with North Dakota State Tuesday.

15* Florida State/Purdue ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +11.5

You're paying a tax to back the Purdue Boilermakers right now due to their No. 2 national ranking and their 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS record.  Now they are laying double-digits to a very good Florida State team that will give them a run for their money tonight.

Florida State is 5-1 this season with its only loss coming on the road to Florida.  That includes blowout wins over Missouri by 23 as 9.5-point favorites, Loyola-Marymount by 28 as 6.5-point favorites and Pennsylvania by 35 as 19.5-point favorites.

Purdue has four blowout wins and two close wins against the best two teams that they have faced.  They beat Villanova by 6 and North Carolina by 9, and I think the Seminoles are more than capable of keeping this a single-digit game tonight.

Purdue is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games after scoring 95 points or more.  Take Florida State Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Tarleton State +31.5

Tarleton State has played the 2nd-toughest schedule in the entire country and has been competitive against some very good teams.  So they won't be phased by having to play Gonzaga tonight, and I look for them to stay within this massive number.

Tarleton lost by 12 at Stanford, by 26 at Kansas, by 14 at Wichita State, by 1 at North Dakota State and by 11 at Michigan.  So they haven't lost by this margin all season and have faced two of the best teams in the country in Kansas and Michigan.

This is a letdown spot for Gonzaga.  They just played UCLA and Duke in back-to-back games, and now they have another huge game on deck against Alabama.  That makes this s a sandwich spot for them.  I don't think they'll be giving Tarleton State the full attention they deserve tonight.

Gonzaga is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after covering four or five of their last six ATS.  The Texans are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Tarleton State is 6-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with Tarleton State Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +6.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 10-10 SU & 13-5-2 ATS in their 20 games despite battling through injuries all season.  But now they are about as healthy as they have been since the start of the season with pretty much every important player on the court other than Collin Sexton, who is out for the season.

But Sexton's injury hasn't slowed down the Cavaliers.  They have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by just 5 to Brooklyn, by 5 to Phoenix and crushing Orlando by 13.  They are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Dallas Mavericks are just 1-4 SU in their last five games overall and getting too much respect here again tonight.  They were 6.5-point favorites against Washington last time out and lost by 6.  And now they come back as 6.5-point favorites against this feisty Cleveland team.

Cleveland is 8-1 ATS after playing a home game this season.  The Cavaliers are 10-2 ATS following an ATS win this season.  Cleveland is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Dallas is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games.  The Mavericks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Cavaliers Monday.

20* Seattle/Washington ESPN No-Brainer on Washington PK

The Washington Football Team has climbed its way back into playoff contention by winning two straight games outright as underdogs.  They beat the Bucs 29-19 as 10-point home dogs before going on the road and topping the Panthers 27-21 as 3-point dogs.  They had a bye prior to the Tampa Bay game and have come back a different team.

But Washington has been playing elite defense for weeks.  In their last four games, they held the Packers to 24 points and 304 yards, the Broncos to 17 points and 273 yards, the Bucs to 19 points and 273 yards and the Panthers to 21 points and 297 yards.

Their defense should win them this game as well against a Seattle offense that can't get anything going.  The Seahawks have been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last six games.  They have scored a combined 13 points in their two games since Russell Wilson returned, so his presence hasn't mattered and he does not look healthy.  

The Seahawks are now 3-7 and out of playoff contention.  Their numbers are every bit as bad as their record suggests.  They are averaging just 298.6 yards per game on offense and allowing 401.8 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by a whopping 103.2 yards per game.  To compare, Washington is only getting outgained by 20.7 yards per game on the season.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games in the second half of the season.  Seattle is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Football Team is 4-0 ATS in their last four November games.  Ron Rivera is 21-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as a head coach.  We have two teams headed in opposite directions here.  Bet Washington Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -5.5

The Chicago Bulls are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four games coming in.  They just recently got Nikola Vucevic back and now are as healthy as they have been all season with him and Coby White in the lineup.  This is one of the best rosters in the NBA.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Bulls and 'sell high' on the Hornets, who have gone 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  It's a tired Hornets team playing their 7th game in 11 days and in their 7th different city as well.  Look for them to be flat tonight, and that showed last time out in their upset road loss to the Houston Rockets, 143-146.

Chicago owns Charlotte.  The Bulls are have 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with wins by 21, 17 and 13 points.  Chicago is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Charlotte is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games as a road underdog.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Chicago is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite.

Plays against road underdogs (Charlotte) in a game involving two good 3-point shooting teams that make at least 36.5%, after two straight games where they made 16 or more 3-pointers are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* Iowa/Virginia ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -1.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are overvalued right now after a 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS start this season against an extremely soft schedule.  They have played the 355th-ranked schedule in the country with all six games at home.  Now they hit the road for the first time this season at Virginia and this is a massive step up in competition.

Virginia is 5-2 this season against a much tougher schedule.  Obviously the loss to Navy in the opener was a bad loss, but the other came against Houston on the road, and Houston is one of the best teams in the country.

The Cavaliers have since rebounded nicely with four straight blowout victories all by 10 points or more, including a 10-point win over Georgia and an upset win over Providence by 18.  They are the more battle-tested team and will be ready for a game against a team that caliber of Iowa.

Iowa is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following four straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games following three or more consecutive home games.  Take Virginia Monday.

20* Pistons/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit +11.5

I like the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They will be out for revenge from their 116-121 loss to the Lakers on November 21st exactly one week ago today.  That was a heated game that led to the suspension of LeBron James.

The Pistons have played a brutal schedule of late during their five-game losing streak, which has them undervalued.  They lost by 3 to the Warriors, by 5 to the Lakers, by 8 to the Heat, by 21 to the Bucks and by 11 to the Clippers.  So they stayed within 11 of four of those five teams, and they can stay within 11 of the Lakers tonight.

Los Angeles has been overvalued all season, especially when James has played, and he is questionable to play tonight.  They are just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their lone wins came by 5 over the Pistons and in overtime against the Pacers.  In fact, the Lakers haven't won any of their last 15 games by more than 11 points, making for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Pistons pertaining to this 11.5-point spread.  

Detroit is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following four or more consecutive losses.  Los Angeles is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games vs. poor shooting teams that make 43% of their shots or worse.  The Pistons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  The Lakers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Detroit is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Pistons Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Grizzlies UNDER 223.5

The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings have some key injuries right now that are going to keep this game UNDER the total.  The Grizzlies are without JA Morant, so they are going to have to slow it down today and won't be nearly as effective on offense without him.

The Kings will be without both Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes and possibly Maurice Harkless.  I think this number is inflated today due to the Kings winning a 141-137 (OT) triple-overtime thriller against the Lakers last time out.  That game was tied 100-100 at the end of regulation for 200 combined points.

The Grizzlies lost Morant early in the game against the Hawks last time out and went on to manage just 100 points on 40.7% shooting.  Their offense runs through Morant, and they are going to be lost without him.  But they will try and make up for it on the defensive end.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 or higher (Memphis) a losing team (40% to 49%) playing another losing team (25% to 40%) in Sunday games are 26-6 (81.2%) since 1996.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Kings last eight Sunday games.  The UNDER is 21-9 in Grizzlies last 30 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 20-9 in the last 29 meetings, including 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Memphis.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Vikings/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -3

The 49ers had a team meeting after their terrible loss to Colt McCoy and the Cardinals.  They came back and throttled the Rams 31-10 at home while holding them to just 278 total yards.  Then they made that win count by going on the road and dominating the Jaguars 30-10 and holding them to just 200 total yards.  Now the 49ers are starting to play like the team everyone thought they'd be coming into the season.  

But we continue getting them at a discount because of their 5-5 record.  Their numbers are elite.  They average 360 yards per game on offense and have been even better when Jimmy G and George Kittle are healthy, which both are now.  And they have one of the best defenses in the NFL at 318 yards per game allowed.  They are outgaining opponents by over 40 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.

Minnesota is also 5-5 but doesn't have as good of numbers.  The Vikings only outgain opponents by 8 yards per game and actually get outgained by 0.2 yards per play on the season.  And I think it's a terrible spot for the Vikings.  They are coming off a huge last-second win over their biggest rivals in the Green Bay Packers.  And that's a banged-up Packers team at that and they took advantage.  Now they have to travel clear out to the West Coast.  There's no way they'll be as motivated for this game as they were for the Packers, and I expect them to fall flat here.

Minnesota is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games off an upset win as a home underdog.  The Vikings are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games following a win by 3 points or less.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last five meetings with the home team winning all four games by 8 points or more.  I think we see the 49ers continue playing their best football of the season and win this game by more than a field goal over the Vikings.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Broncos +3

Death, taxes and Teddy Bridgewater as an underdog.  Bridgewater is 25-9 ATS as an underdog in his career as a starting quarterback.  And I think we are getting tremendous value on the Broncos this week as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Broncos sit at 5-5 and ready to try and make a run at the playoffs here down the stretch.  They come in off their bye week, so they will be fresh and have had two weeks to prepare for Justin Herbert and company.  It should be a great atmosphere for the Broncos, and I fully expect them to win this game outright thanks to their rest and preparation advantage.

The Chargers will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and all five games went down to the wire decided by 7 points or less.  That includes their crazy 41-37 win over the Steelers last week in which they blew a big lead and needed some late heroics from Justin Herbert to get the victory.  I expect them to still be feeling the after-effects of all these close games and especially that tiring shootout last week on Sunday Night Football.

The key matchup here is that the Broncos will be able to run the football at will on the Chargers and control the game with time off possession.  They are a solid running team averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and they'll be up against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.  The Chargers allow 145 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.

Denver is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games following a bye week.  Los Angeles is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game.  The Chargers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 November games.  The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont -2.5

The Belmont Bruins return all five starters from a team that went 26-4 last year.  Not only that, but the top five scorers on the bench return as well, so this is really the most experienced team in the nation.  The top five scorers all averaged double figures last year for the Bruins, so this is a very balanced team.  They averaged 81.3 points per game, which ranked 13th nationally.

The Bruins are off to a 5-2 start this season against a brutal schedule.  The losses came to Ohio and LSU, and they have solid wins over Furman, Drake and Iona.  I think their depth will play a big factor here playing in the championship game of the ESPN Events Invitational playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

This is a terrible spot for Dayton.  They will have a letdown after their shocking 74-73 win as 16-point dogs against Kansas last round.  This is a Dayton team that was just 2-3 coming into that game with upset losses to UMass-Lowell 58-59 as 17.5-point favorites, Lipscomb 59-78 as 9-point favorites and Austin Peay 81-87 as 14-point favorites.  They aren't that good, and we are getting Belmont at a discount due to that Kansas upset.

The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after committing eight or fewer turnovers in their previous game.  The Flyers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Bruins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Roll with Belmont Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins +2.5

The Miami Dolphins are grossly undervalued after a 1-7 start this season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since as they have gotten healthy and gotten back to playing the same dominant defense that got them as far as they did last year.

The Dolphins beat the Texans 17-9 with Jacob Brissett and held them to just 272 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  They then beat the Ravens 22-10 and held them to 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers.  And last week they beat the Jets 24-17.

Tua returned in the second half against the Ravens and had a great finish, completing 8-of-13 passes for 158 yards while also rushing for a score.  He started against the Jets and had another solid game through the air, going 27-of-33 passing for 273 yards with two touchdowns and one pick.  

Having Tua back healthy and a dominant defense makes the Dolphins a sleeper moving forward, especially with three straight home games against suspect competition coming up with a chance to get back to .500.  This team believes right now, and that is a big thing as we head down the stretch run of the season.

The Panthers continue to be overvalued from their blowout win at Arizona two weeks ago in Cam Newton's return.  Newton got the nod last week and did not play well, losing 21-27 at home to Washington as 3-point favorites.  Now they are favored against on the road here, and I just don't trust Newton to be able to beat Miami's blitz-happy defense with his arm.  We saw what they did to Lamar Jackson two weeks ago.  The formula will be the same here against Newton and the Panthers.

Carolina is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a road favorite.  The Panthers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Dolphins are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* Bucs/Colts Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis +3

The Indianapolis Colts are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming in overtime to Baltimore and Tennessee.  Carson Wentz has not thrown an interception in eight of his last nine games.  And the Colts have a great defense and running game.  They are definitely one of the biggest sleepers in the NFL right now.

That showed last week in their 41-15 win at Buffalo behind five touchdowns from arguably the best RB in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor.  They could have a letdown, but I don't think so considering they still have a lot of work to do to make the playoffs as they sit at just 6-5 on the season.  And they have the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs coming to town, so they are almost assuredly not going to let up.

I just don't think Tampa Bay can be trusted on the road, either.  The Bucs are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS on the road this season.  Their two wins came by 2 points over the Patriots and 6 over the Eagles.  They lost at the Rams by 10, were upset at New Orleans by 9 and also upset as a double-digit favorite at Washington by 10.  This might be their toughest road test of the season.

Plus, the Bucs are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.  They could be without their best run stuffer in defensive tackle Vita Vea, who sat out last game.  They have injuries in the secondary and on offense that are concerning.  And I just think they are overvalued after beating the lowly Giants Monday night.

The Colts are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Indianapolis.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +4

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia Eagles.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  But those three wins came against the Lions, Broncos and Saints.  And we saw how bad the Saints looked against the Bills on Thursday as they are missing several key players, as were the Broncos when they played them.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Giants after they were waxed 30-10 by the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs on Monday Night Football.  That was a pissed off Bucs team coming off two straight losses, so they caught them at a bad time.  

The Giants were playing well prior to that defeat, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games.  They upset the Panthers 25-3 at home, only lost by 3 to the Chiefs as 10.5-point road dogs, and upset the Raiders 23-16 at home.  They had a bye after that game against Las Vegas, so they should still be fresh even though they are on a short week here after playing on Monday.

The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after losing four or five of their last six games coming in.  The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.  New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Philadelphia) after winning two of its last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 73-31 (70.2%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* Heat/Bulls Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami -1.5

This is a tough spot for the Chicago Bulls.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after having to fly back from Orlando after a win against the short-handed Magic last night.  It will also be the 9th game in 14 days for the Bulls.  This team simply doesn't have much left in the tank.

Now they have to face a rested, motivated Miami Heat team that comes in on two days' rest and off an upset loss to the Timberwolves.  I don't think the Bulls will be able to match the Heat's energy or intensity in this game tonight.

The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record, including 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Miami is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games playing on two days' rest.  The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Chicago.  Take the Heat Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +13.5

Syracuse is 5-6 this season and needs one more win to get bowl eligible.  It's clear we will get their 'A' game Saturday as they will be max motivated to get to a bowl.  It will be a night game and a tremendous atmosphere with home-field advantage worth more than on any other normal week.

I question how motivated Pittsburgh will be for this one.  In fact, I expect something less than their 'A' game for sure, which is going to make it hard for them to win this game by two touchdowns or more to beat us.

The Panthers just clinched the Coastal Division title with their 48-38 win over Virginia last week.  They will be looking ahead to the ACC Championship Game next week, and they won't be fully focused on Syracuse.  They will be more worried about trying to keep everyone healthy for next week to try and win the ACC title.

Syracuse is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following two straight conference losses where they allowed 31 points or more.  The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Their three home losses this season were all close by 3 to Clemson, by 3 to Wake Forest and by 10 to Rutgers.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Syracuse) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games against an opponent that covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Syracuse Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Santa Clara -3.5

Herb Sendek has a very good Santa Clara team this season.  The Broncos are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS this season against a brutal schedule.  They beat Stanford by 16 as 3-point dogs, Nevada by 22 as 1.5-point dogs, TCU by 19 as 3.5-point dogs and Cal Poly by 30 as 14.5-point favorites.  Their lone loss came to Fresno State last time out, and I think they are undervalued off that defeat.

UC-Irvine is a solid team at 3-1 this season.  But they lost to the best team they faced in New Mexico State by 11 as 5.5-point dogs.  It was also their only road game this season.  And I don't see them hanging with this veteran, talented Santa Clara squad on the road tonight.

Irvine is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after a win by 10 points or more.  Irvine is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after covering two of its last three ATS.  The Anteaters are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  The Broncos are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Santa Clara Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -4.5

The Philadelphia 76ers get Joel Embiid back from COVID tonight.  They come in highly motivated for a victory after struggling without him, going 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  This after a solid 8-2 start this season with him on board for most of those games.

The schedule has done the 76ers no favors without Embiid, either.  They have played six straight road games coming in.  But now they are back home where they have been one of the best home teams in the NBA over the past few seasons.  And they are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest.

While it's a great time to 'buy low' on the 76ers, it's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But they are in a tough spot tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 16 days after a shootout loss in Charlotte last night.  They won't be able to match Philadelphia's energy and intensity tonight.

The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  The 76ers are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Philadelphia.  Bet the 76ers Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulsa +6.5

Tulsa has clawed its way back to 5-6 by winning four of its last six games to get within one more victory of bowl eligibility.  The two losses came by 3 to Navy and by 8 to Cincinnati on the road in a game they nearly won outright.  They will capitalize on this opportunity to make a bowl by winning this game outright at SMU Saturday.

I question the motivation of the Mustangs.  They won't be going to the AAC Title game.  They are coming off a 14-48 loss to Cincinnati that was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  They were outgained 199 to 544 by the Bearcats.  They have now gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall for a lackluster finish.  I see no reason they will want to win this game Saturday, either.

Tulsa is the better team despite having the worse record in my opinion.  They have played the tougher schedule and are outgaining opponents by 62 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.  SMU has played the weaker schedule and is outgaining teams by 53 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.

SMU was without leading receiver Danny Gray last week and his 49 catches for 803 yards and nine touchdowns this season.  He's questionable to return this week and chances are the Mustangs are going to sit him considering this game isn't that important.  

And I just think this SMU offense is overrated, managing 355 yards against Houston, 323 yards against Memphis and 199 yards against Cincinnati in three of their last four games.  Their defense is poor too giving up 419.1 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  Tulsa allows 378.1 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season to compare.

Tulsa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Golden Hurricane are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  SMU is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 home games after getting outgained by 225 or more yards last game.  The Golden Hurricane are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. good offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game.  Don't hesitate to buy this to +7 while also sprinkling that money line.  Bet Tulsa Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Minnesota Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7

Minnesota and Wisconsin match up very well.  They are two physical teams that run the football and rely on defense.  That is evident by this very low 39-point total.  So getting 7 points in what is expected to be a defensive battle is a very nice value here with the Gophers at home Saturday.

Minnesota just outgained Indiana by 173 yards in a 35-14 road win and outgained Iowa by 132 yards in a losing effort on the road in a game they deserved to win the week prior.  In fact, the Gophers have now outgained six straight Big Ten opponents coming into this game.  They are playing well enough to knock off Wisconsin, and stay within a score of them at the very least.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Badgers off seven consecutive victories.  But it's worth noting they were outgained by Nebraska by 54 yards last week in a fortunate 35-28 victory that kept their title hopes alive.  They should be favored in this game, but by 3 and not 7 points in my opinion.

Last year, Minnesota only lost 17-20 (OT) as a 10.5-point road dog at Wisconsin.  The Gophers outgained the Badgers in that game.  They get them at home this time around and will be revenge-minded.

Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 conference games.  The Gophers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last seven eight games as underdogs.  The underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a game where it committed zero turnovers.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona +20.5

It's a terrible spot for Arizona State this week.  They just lost out on their chance to win the Pac-12 title with their 10-24 road loss as 3-point favorites at Oregon State last week.  And now they won't be that motivated to face a 1-10 Arizona team this week.  Not only do they have to win, they have to win by three touchdowns or more to beat us.

Arizona State managed just 10 points and 266 total yards against a bad Oregon State defense last week.  Injuries are mounting up on offense for the Sun Devils with two receivers and two tight ends out.  QB Jayden Daniels is not playing well with an 8-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season and his job will be even tougher this week.

The Arizona Wildcats are flying under the radar here late in the season because they are just 1-10 SU this season.  But they have been much more competitive than that record shows, and they certainly have not quit under first-year head coach Jedd Fisch.  They will be max motivated playing their biggest rivals here to close out the season as this game means more to them than it does the Sun Devils.

Arizona State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Wildcats only lost by 5 as 17.5-point dogs to Washington, by 7 to USC as 21.5-point dogs, upset Cal by 7 as 7-point dogs, and only lost by 9 to Utah as 23.5-point dogs.  And Utah is one of the best teams in the conference.  If they're not it's Oregon, and Arizona actually outgained Oregon by 42 yards earlier this season.

In fact, the Wildcats haven't been outgained by more than 139 yards in any of their last nine games.  In their last nine games, the Wildcats are getting outgained by only 12.2 yards per game on average.  They have been much more competitive than their record suggests as stated before.

Arizona State is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite.  Take Arizona Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +32.5

Tennessee just clinched bowl eligibility last week with a win over South Alabama to get their 6th victory of the season.  I don't see them being that motivated to face Vanderbilt this weekend.  And not only are they being asked to win, they are 32.5-point favorites at that.

At 2-9 on the season, this game means a lot more to Vanderbilt as it will be their final game of the season against their rivals.  And that record has the Commodores undervalued here down the stretch.  They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with three straight covers.

They only lost to South Carolina by 1 as 19-point underdogs.  They only lost to Missouri by 9 as 16.5-point underdogs.  They covered as 21.5-point dogs in a 17-point loss to Kentucky.  And last week was their most impressive performance yet.  They only lost by 14 as 35.5-point dogs at Ole Miss.  What was impressive about it was that they were only outgained by 16 yards by the Rebels.  

Their offense came to life under backup quarterback Mike Wright.  He led the Commodores to 454 total yards against a very good Ole Miss defense.  Wright threw for 241 yards, but it's his dual-threat ability that makes this Vanderbilt offense better.  He also rushed for 61 yards on 13 carries in that Ole Miss game.  And I think he can do enough to keep Vanderbilt within the number here against this mediocre Tennessee defense.

Vanderbilt is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 road games following a road loss.  The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Volunteers are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Volunteers are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after covering the spread in their previous game.

Tennessee hasn't won any of its last 17 meetings with Vanderbilt by more than 29 points.  That makes for a 17-0 system backing the Commodores pertaining to this 32.5-point spread.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +7

The Oregon Ducks suffered their dream crusher loss last week in a 38-7 setback at Utah.  Now they know they won't be going to the four-team playoff when they were in control of their own destiny if they won out having that head-to-head victory over Ohio State.  But none of that matters now.

I think the Ducks suffer a hangover from that defeat.  Now they face an upstart Oregon State Beavers team that is still alive to win the Pac-12 North.  The Beavers will be the more focused, motivated team here and I think we are getting tremendous value with them catching 7 points against the Ducks.

Oregon State is 7-4 this season with all four losses by 14 points or less.  They have been competitive in every game.  They are coming off a 24-10 win over Arizona State as 3-point underdogs.  And I think they have what it takes to hang with this Oregon team that gave up 208 rushing yards to Utah last week.

The Beavers should get their ground game going on offense as they do every week.  They average 230 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry this season.  Their defense has been solid as well, allowing 24.8 points per game and 377.0 yards per game, numbers very comparable to Oregon on both sides of the ball.

Oregon State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog.  The Beavers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.  Oregon State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Oregon is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Ducks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Beavers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Eugene.  Take Oregon State Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -1

Michigan State suffered its dream crusher loss to Ohio State last week in a 56-7 blowout defeat.  Now the Spartans know they won't be making the four-team playoff or the Big Ten Championship Game.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat now that all of their dreams are gone.

Penn State has put the James Franklin rumors behind them as he just signed a contract extension.  I think we get a focused effort from the Nittany Lions, and the fact of the matter is they are the better team in this contest.  The numbers agree.

Penn State is averaging 381.5 yards per game on offense and allowing 333.7 yards per game on defense, outgaining teams by nearly 48 yards per game.  Michigan State is averaging 429.1 yards per game on offense and giving up 463.4 yards per game on defense, actually getting outgained by over 34 yards per game.  The Spartans are a fraudulent 9-2 this season, and they are dealing with a ton of injuries right now.

These teams have five common opponents this season.  Penn State is outgaining those five teams by 65.4 yards per game, while Michigan State is getting outgained by 86.2 yards per game by those same five opponents.  This shows that Penn State is the better team and it's not really even close.

The Nittany Lions are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Penn State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.  The Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Penn State is 36-14-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a win.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Iowa +10

Northern Iowa is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  But they had some bad losses early when they were injured.  Now they are fully healthy, and they played up to their potential when they had a 1-point lead with under three minutes left at Arkansas last time out as 12.5-point dogs.

The Panthers went on to lose that game by 13 in one of the worst beats of the college basketball season.  But now that works in our favor here because the Panthers are catching more points than they should be against St. Bonaventure.  They have also had a ton of time to get ready for this game and get even healthier with that Arkansas contest being their last game on November 17th.

While it's a great time to 'buy low' on Northern Iowa, it's also a great time to 'sell high' on St. Bonaventure after opening 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS.  The Bonnies just played a big tournament and beat Boise State (by 6), Clemson (by 3) and Marquette to win the title.  This is now a letdown spot for them as they return home to face 1-3 Northern Iowa.

The Panthers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. excellent defensive teams that allow 35% shooting or lower.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Rice +4

Both of these teams are 3-8 this season, but I like the way that Rice has played to finish the season much more than that of Louisiana Tech.  And I think knowing we will get the 'A' game out of rice and less than that from Louisiana Tech will lead to an upset victory for the Owls at home here Saturday.

Rice upset UAB 30-24 as a 23.5-point road underdog.  They went on to lose to North Texas in OT despite outgaining them by 53 yards.  Then they lost at Charlotte in OT despite outgaining them by 119 yards.  They were only outgained by Western Kentucky by 83 yards in a 21-point loss that was much closer than the final score.  And WKU is one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country, same with UAB.  And last week they lost by 10 at UTEP, another solid 7-4 bowl team.

Louisiana Tech is 1-6 in its last seven games overall with its only win coming against Charlotte in a game it was outgained by 44 yards.  The Bulldogs lost outright to a terrible Southern Miss team by 16 as 15.5-point favorites last week, which is all you need to know about how they are currently playing and their mental state to close the season.  They have been outgained in five of their last six games overall as well.  This team is used to going to bowl games under Skip Holtz, and with that off the table they have struggled to find motivation down the stretch.

The Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games games following a loss.  Rice is 30-9 ATS in its last 39 games as a home underdog of 7 points or less.  Roll with Rice Saturday.

15* Florida State/Florida ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +3

Mike Norvell has done a great job of keeping this Florida State team together this season after an 0-4 start.  The Seminoles have gone 5-2 since with their only losses to Clemson and NC State.  That includes upset road wins over North Carolina and Boston College, as well as an upset home win over Miami.

Now the Seminoles sit at 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They definitely want it, and I know we will get their 'A' game here against their rivals in Florida.  I don't think the same can be said for their opponent and I don't expect anything close to their 'A' game.

Florida is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall and just fired head coach Dan Mullen.  The Gators are coming off an upset loss to Missouri.  They were also upset by 23 as 20.5-point favorites against South Carolina and by 7 as 12.5-point favorites against LSU.  Their only win during this stretch was even a concern as they gave up 52 points as a 31.5-point favorite against Samford.   At 5-6, they just want their season to be over, especially with the distractions about who their next head coach will be.

Florida is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games after a loss by 6 points or less.  The Seminoles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Gators are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  Take Florida State Saturday.

15* Bucks/Nuggets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -3

The Milwaukee Bucks are 7-0 when Giannis, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have been on the floor together this season.  They have won five straight games by 7 points or more and are playing their best basketball of the season right now at their healthiest point of the season.

Now they take on an injury-ravaged Denver Nuggets team that is not playing well, going 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with four losses by double-digits.  They are without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., and Nikola Jokic has missed the past three games with a wrist injury and is questionable to return tonight.  I don't think it matters, but would obviously be a bonus if he didn't play.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Atlanta Hawks after going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six games prior to Thanksgiving.  They had gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their previous six games.  And they won five of those six games at home.

Atlanta has been terrible on the road this season.  The Hawks are 2-8 SU & 1-9 ATS in their 10 road games.  They face a motivated Memphis Grizzlies team that is as healthy as they have been all season now.

The Hawks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games, including 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs.  The Hawks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs overall.  The Grizzlies are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Hornets OVER 224.5

Two teams that are playing very well and like to get up and down square off tonight when the Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Charlotte Hornets.  The Hornets rank 4th in the NBA in pace this season while the Timberwolves rank 11th.

Minnesota got De'Angelo Russell back healthy and he has helped spark a 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS run in their last five games overall.  The Timberwolves have scored at least 107 points in all five games and have averaged 116.6 points per game during this stretch.  He is the whole key to their offense, and they play a lot faster with him at the helm.  The Timberwolves will also be without their best defender in Patrick Beverly tonight, which will help the OVER.

Charlotte is 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Hornets have scored at least 104 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  They rank 11th in offensive efficiency but just 24th in defensive efficiency this season.  They are an OVER team.

The OVER went 2-0 in two meetings last season with Charlotte winning 120-114 at home for 234 combined points, and 135-012 on the road for 237 combined points.  This game has all the makings of a shootout as well.  Take the OVER Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU -8.5

LSU looks like one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with all five wins coming by 16 points or more and by an average of 34.4 points per game.  That includes wins over solid mid-major programs in Liberty by 16 as 7.5-point favorites and Belmont by 30 as 6.5-point favorites.

Penn State is in rebuilding mode.  The Nittany Lions are 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS this season.  They failed to cover at home against Youngstown State, Cornell and St. Francis-NY.  They also lost outright by 25 at UMass as 4-point favorites in their lone road game.  This is a huge step up in class for Penn State.

Plays on neutral court teams (LSU) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 76 points per game against an average defensive team allowing 67-74 points per game, after two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet LSU Friday.

15* Cincinnati/East Carolina AAC ANNIHILATOR on East Carolina +14

I think Cincinnati breathes a sigh of relief this week just enough to fail to cover this 14-point spread.  They became the first Group of 5 team to be ranked in the Top 4 of the playoff rankings in the eight years since this system came out.  They finally got recognized after their dominant win over SMU last week, and I think they are overvalued this week as a result.

The fact remains, all the pressure is on Cincinnati here, and that's a lot to deal with.  They hadn't handled it very well in the several weeks prior to SMU, and I think bettors are quickly forgetting that.  And East Carolina is playing too good right now to be catching two touchdowns.  This is the 'National Championship' game for the Pirates with a chance to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati at home.

The Bearcats went 0-4 ATS in their previous four games prior to beating SMU.  They only beat Navy by 7 as 28.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by 37 yards by the Midshipmen.  They needed a late surge to beat Tulane by 19 as a 27.5-point favorite and only outgained them by 71 yards.  They were outgained by 56 yards in an 8-point win over Tulsa as a 22.5-point favorite.  And they got a late INT return TD to win by 17 over South Florida as a 24.5-point favorite.

East Carolina hasn't lost by more than 14 points all season.  They sit at 7-4 this season so they've already clinched a bowl berth, so they will be kind of free rolling here and playing relaxed football.  Three of their four losses have come by 7 points or less with a 3-point loss to South Carolina, a 4-point loss at UCF and a 7-point loss at Houston.  The 14-point loss was in the opener against Appalachian State.

The Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They beat Tulane by 23, South Florida by 15, Temple by 41, upset Memphis on the road and beat Navy by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite.  That was a huge letdown spot against Navy and they still handled their business.  They had just clinched bowl eligibility the previous week with a win at Memphis.  And they had Cincinnati on deck, so it was a sandwich spot.  So to avoid the upset there against Navy showed a lot about their character.

Not only has East Carolina been a covering machine, they have also dominated the stats here down the stretch.  Indeed, the Pirates have now outgained all seven opponents during this 6-1 ATS stretch.  The last three have been mighty impressive as they outgained Navy by 181 yards, Memphis by 161 yards and Temple by 276 yards.  They also outgained Houston by 109 yards in a road loss in OT, and Houston is nearly as good as Cincinnati.

The Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.  The Pirates are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pirates are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in its previous game.  Roll with East Carolina Friday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +13.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the UAB Blazers.  They played unbeaten UTSA last week with a trip to the Conference USA Championship Game on the line.  They gave up a touchdown with 3 seconds left to lose, 31-34 in heartbreaking fashion.  I don't think they'll be able to get back up off the mat in time to beat UTEP by 14-plus points to cover this number now.

Both of these teams are 7-4 this season, but it's UAB that gets the respect while UTEP has been flying under the radar all season.  The Miners got off to a 6-1 start this season before losing three straight, but two of those losses were by exactly 3 points.  They rebounded nicely last week with a 38-28 home win over Rice.  Keep in mind UAB was upset by Rice recently.  And now the Miners want to put a stamp on their season and beat UAB in the finale.  They will be the more motivated team here.

UTEP boasts a balanced offense that averages 252 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt, and 148 rushing yards per game.  They also boast an underrated defense that allows 23.2 points per game, 339.9 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  Their numbers are very similar to that of UAB, which has a suspect offense at 389.5 yards per game on the season.  That offense makes it hard for the Blazers to cover these big numbers, especially given the terrible spot for them today.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (UTEP) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games against an opponent that covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Take UTEP Friday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan +9

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Central Michigan.  The Chippewas have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They made a run to close the season to try and win the MAC West.  But Northern Illinois sealed the West with a win last week in overtime against Buffalo.

Now this is a huge letdown spot for the Chippewas as the wind has been lifted from beneath their sails.  They are no longer playing for a championship, and they already have a bowl bid locked up.  I don't expect them to be nearly as motivated for this game as they would have been with a trip to the MAC Championship on the line.

Eastern Michigan has been grossly underrated for years, including this season.  The Eagles sit at 7-4 this season as well.  Amazingly, they have just one loss by more than 8 points, which came on the road at Wisconsin in non-conference play.  That's understandable as Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the country.

Eastern Michigan has pulled several upsets this season.  Most recently, they went into Toledo and won 52-49 as 9-point dogs, while also knocking off a very good Western Michigan team 22-21 as 5-point home dogs.  Whoever wins this game Friday, I expect it to be decided by one score, so there's value here with the Eagles catching 9 points.

Chris Creighton is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Eastern Michigan.  Creighton is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game at EMU.  The Eagles are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 road games, including 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as road underdogs.  Bet Eastern Michigan Friday.

20* Bills/Saints NBC Thursday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -6

The Buffalo Bills have responded well after bad losses this season.  They want to get the taste out of their mouth from that 41-15 loss to the Colts in which they were -4 in turnovers.  The good news is they don't have to wait long to do it here against the New Orleans Saints.

The Bills have four losses this season.  They are 3-0 ATS following a loss.  After losing to Pittsburgh in the opener, they beat Miami 35-0 on the road the next week.  After losing at Tennessee, they won 26-11 at home against Miami the next week.  And after losing at Jacksonville, they won 45-17 at the New York Jets the next week.

The Saints continue getting respect from oddsmakers that they don't deserve with a third-string QB.  They are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall.  They are coming off a 40-29 loss at Philadelphia in which they gave up 242 rushing yards.  They were upset at home as 7-point favorites against the Falcons and gave up 332 passing yards.

Injuries are adding up for the Saints, and they just don't have a good enough offense to keep up with the Bills.  And Jalen Hurts ran wild on the Saints last week.  Now they face another mobile quarterback in Josh Allen, who should have a monster game against their defense as well.  And the Bills are about as healthy as any team in the NFL at this point in the season.

Plays against underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - after going over the total by 35 or more points in their last three games are 35-13 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference games.  The Bills are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss by more than 14 points.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

15* Ole Miss/Mississippi State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +1.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are 9-2 this season and playing for a New Year's 6 Bowl ranked 9th in the latest playoff rankings.  So anyone that questions their motivation here against a rival in Mississippi State is out of their minds.  These players want this game more than any other game this season, so any concerns about Lane Kiffin possibly taking another job are unwarranted.  That will show up in their bowl game if it does at all.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Mississippi State, which has gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  Now the unranked Bulldogs are actually favored over the 9th-ranked Rebels.  Many like to back these unranked favorites against ranked teams blindly.  But this isn't the spot for it as Ole Miss is simply the better team.

The four wins during this stretch have come against Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Auburn and Tennessee State.  They lost to the best team they faced in Arkansas.  And it's worth noting Ole Miss beat Arkansas, and gave Alabama a much better game than Mississippi State, which lost 49-9 to Alabama.  Ole Miss beat LSU by 14 while Mississippi State lost to LSU.

While the Rebels get a lot of hype and deservedly so for Matt Corral and the offense that averaged 517.5 yards per game, it's the improvement on defense that has made the difference for the Rebels this season.  They give up just 25.4 points per game on the season.  They allow 5.5 yards per play, which is the same as Mississippi State, which allows 5.5 yards per play as well but is perceived to be the better defense.

There's no question Ole Miss has the better offense.  They average 36.4 points, 517.5 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  Mississippi State is improved offensively this year, but still far behind Ole Miss as 31.8 points, 452.3 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  Ole Miss is outgaining teams by 1.2 yards per play, while Mississippi State is only outgaining opponents by 0.6 yards per play.  Ole Miss only averages 0.7 turnovers per game on offense, while Mississippi State gives it away 1.4 times per game.  The Rebels force 1.8 turnovers per game, while the Bulldogs force 1.4 turnovers per game.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Ole Miss Thursday.

15* Raiders/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 51

The Raiders are broken offensively since losing Harry Ruggs to injury.  They have scored 16 points or fewer in three consecutive games now and it has come against some pretty weak defenses in the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals.  They won't do much better here against the Cowboys with an offense that only really features Darren Waller as a decent weapon.

The Cowboys have been held to 20 or fewer points in three of their last four.  Injuries are really piling up for them on offense as well.  Amari Cooper is out, and CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott are questionable.  But the Cowboys have an improved defense this season that gives up just 21.4 points per game.  They have held three of their last four opponents to 19 points or fewer, including the 19 points allowed to the Chiefs last week.

The Raiders are also improved defensively this season.  They give up just 352.7 yards per game.  They have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and should be able to get after Dak Prescott.  They held Joe Burrow and Cincinnati's high-powered offense to just 129 passing yards on 20-of-29 attempts.  Three weeks ago they held the Giants to 96 passing yards.  They are giving up just 6.1 yards per attempt this season.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games overall.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Cowboys last nine November games.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Raiders last 10 November games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Loyola-Chicago +3

Loyola-Chicago played the early game yesterday and got the extra time to rest and sit around and watch the Auburn/UConn game to scout both teams.  That's a huge advantage.  That rest advantage is even bigger now that Auburn and UConn went to double-overtime yesterday.

Indeed, UConn beat Auburn 115-109 in double-overtime in an absolute shootout.  Five players played at least 32 minutes for the Tigers yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Ramblers today and I'm shocked they are favored.

Auburn is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Loyola-Chicago is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Take Loyola-Chicago Thursday.

15* UConn/Michigan State ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +2.5

Michigan State played the early game yesterday and got the extra time to rest and sit around and watch the Auburn/UConn game to scout both teams.  That's a huge advantage.  That rest advantage is even bigger now that Auburn and UConn went to double-overtime yesterday.

Indeed, UConn beat Auburn 115-109 in double-overtime in an absolute shootout.  Five players played more than 30 minutes for the Huskies, including two more than 43 minutes.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Spartans today.

UConn is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  Michigan State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Michigan State Thursday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -4

South Dakota State is the best team in the underrated Summit League this season.  The Jackrabbits returned all five starters from a team that went 16-7 overall last year and 9-3 in Summit play.  And not just any five starters, how about five staters that all averaged in double figures last year.  They also return four bench players that played significant minutes last year, allowing the Jackrabbits to play at the break-neck pace that made them the Summit's most efficient offense last season.

They are off to a 5-2 start this season with one loss coming to Alabama on the road.  Well, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country.  They also beat Stephen F. Austin 83-71 as a 2-point favorite, Montana State 91-74 as a 10-point favorite, Bradley 81-65 as a 9-point favorite and Nevada 102-75 as 2.5-point favorites cover the spread in all four games.  

They did come up short yesterday against Washington as the Huskies couldn't miss, shooting 58.3% from the field.  But I like the Jackrabbits to bounce back today and they are built for these tournament situation playing three games in three days due to their tremendous depth.  They also play at a break-neck pace, which will really test George Mason.

George Mason has now lost three straight to James Madison, Washington and then Nevada in a 88-69 blowout yesterday.  That's the same Nevada team that South Dakota State beat by 27.  George Mason is not a deep team with six players averaging 21 minutes and the next-highest at 11 minutes.  They brought back just one starter from last year's team.

The Patriots are 14-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  George Mason is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  South Dakota State is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 games overall.  The Jackrabbits are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.  South Dakota State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite.  The Jackrabbits are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Bet South Dakota State Wednesday.

15* Memphis/VA Tech ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -2.5

The Memphis Tigers are loaded this season and off to an impressive 4-0 start while winning by an average of 22.7 points per game.  Their 16-point home win over a very good Saint Louis team was very eye-opening.  And they followed it up with a 12-point win over a quality Western Kentucky team.  They have played the much tougher competition to this point.

Virginia Tech is overvalued after a 5-0 start against one of the easiest schedules in the country.  The Hokies have seen their five wins come again Maine, Navy, Radford, St. Francis-PA and Merrimack.  This is a huge step up in competition for them, and I expect them to fail.

The Tigers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Memphis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Virginia Tech is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog.  Take Memphis Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on San Antonio Spurs +4

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the San Antonio Spurs after losing five straight games coming in against a brutal schedule.  But they stayed within 4 points of the red hot Phoenix Suns last time out, and I expect them to upset the Atlanta Hawks at home tonight.  

The Spurs are fresh playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight.  They are highly motivated for a victory to end this losing streak heading into Thanksgiving.  And they face a Hawks team they have owned, going 21-2 SU in their last 23 home meetings with Atlanta.

Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on Atlanta, which is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  But all five wins came at home.  The Hawks are 1-8 SU & 0-9 ATS on the road this season. They are getting outscored by 10.0 points per game on the highway.  Enough said.  Take the Spurs Wednesday.

20* Nets/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston +1.5

The Boston Celtics are surging right now in going 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all three losses on the road including two by a combined 5 points.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home during this stretch with wins over the Raptors by 16, Bucks by 9, Lakers by 22, Rockets by 18 and Thunder by 5.

Now they host a Brooklyn Nets team that is banged up.  The Nets are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with narrow wins over some bad teams in Cleveland (twice) and Orlando, as well as an 18-point loss to Golden State.  They are without Joe Harris and Bruce Brown, which puts way too much on Durant and Harden's shoulders.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Boston) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by 42 or more points in their last seven games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -3.5

The Lakers are a tired team right now which is a big reason they are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 6-point loss to the Knicks last night.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Lakers.  They haven't had two days off in a row since October 20-21.

The Indiana Pacers are flashing their potential now that they are as healthy as they have been all season.  The Pacers are 7-5 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Their last two games have been very impressive with a 15-point home win over New Orleans and a 32-point road win at Chicago.

The Lakers are 2-16 ATS in their last 18 road games with a total set of 210 to 219.5.  The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Los Angeles.  Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.

15* Nuggets/Blazers TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 213.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are an OVER team now that they are healthy.  They have gone 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with combined scores of 219 or more points in six of those seven games.  Now we have a total of just 213.5 here against the Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with combined scores of 212 or more points in four of those five games.  There's a decent chance they get Nikola Jokic back, who is questionable.  Even if they don't they'll have to play small ball and will be an OVER team regardless.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with combined scores of 219 or more points in seven of those eight meetings.  This is an OVER series, as well.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -5.5

South Dakota State is the best team in the underrated Summit League this season.  The Jackrabbits returned all five starters from a team that went 16-7 overall last year and 9-3 in Summit play.  And not just any five starters, how about five staters that all averaged in double figures last year.  They also return four bench players that played significant minutes last year, allowing the Jackrabbits to play at the break-neck pace that made them the Summit's most efficient offense last season.

They are off to a 5-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Alabama on the road.  Well, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country.  They also beat Stephen F. Austin 83-71 as a 2-point favorite, Montana State 91-74 as a 10-point favorite, Bradley 81-65 as a 9-point favorite and Nevada 102-75 as 2.5-point favorites cover the spread in all four games.  They are the real deal this season.

That blowout win over Nevada yesterday means the Jackrabbits will be fresh again today.  They will be taking on a rebuilding Washington team that is 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS this season.  Washington barely survived in a 77-74 win over George Mason yesterday and will be tired because of it.  The Huskies were also upset by both Wyoming and Northern Illinois as a 20-point home favorite earlier this season.  They barely beat Northern Arizona 73-62 and Texas Southern 72-65 as well.

This will be essentially be home game for the Jackrabbits being played in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  The Jackrabbits are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games overall and have been one of the most underrated teams in the country over the past few seasons.  The Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Washington is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet South Dakota State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Nebraska-Omaha +30

Texas Tech is overvalued after a 4-0 start against a weak schedule with wins over North Florida by 15, Grambling by 26, Prairie View A&M by 35 and Incarnate Word by 22.  The Red Raiders should not be laying 30 points to Nebraska-Omaha tonight.

Omaha has shown they can be competitive on the road against some quality teams.  They only lost by 4 at Ball State as 10.5-point dogs, by 15 at Kansas State as 17.5-point dogs and by 21 at Montana as 12.5-point dogs.  They will stay within 30 of the Red Raiders tonight.

Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following three or more consecutive wins.  The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Red Raiders are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  This is a rebuilding Texas Tech team without Chris Beard, who moved on to Texas this year.  Take Nebraska-Omaha Tuesday.

15* Oregon/St. Mary's ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -1.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Oregon Ducks.  They have failed to cover the spread in their last two games, including a blowout loss to BYU in which the Cougars shot lights out at 58.6% and made about every 3-pointer they looked at.  That loss came after an 86-63 blowout win over SMU, so the quality of competition has been high for the Ducks this season already.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on Saint Mary's.  The Gaels are 5-0 against a very soft schedule of Prairie View A&M, Texas Southern, Southern Utah, Bellarmine and Notre Dame.  They only beat Notre Dame 62-59 yesterday, and Oregon blew out Chaminade 73-49.  So the Ducks will be the fresher team in this back-to-back situation.  They are the better team as well and it will show.

The Ducks are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Gaels are 11-25 ATS in their last 36 neutral site games as an underdog.  Saint Mary's is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.  Roll with Oregon Tuesday.

20* Western Michigan/NIU ESPNU No-Brainer on Western Michigan -3

Northern Illinois just clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game with their 33-27 (OT) win over Buffalo last week.  Now this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Huskies, who won't care about winning this game and will just be looking to stay healthy going into the title game next week.

Western Michigan would love to beat this team to close out the regular season and will be the more motivated team.  And I'm not so sure the Broncos aren't the better team, too.  But I'm definitely playing them because of the spot, which screams letdown for the Huskies.

The numbers show the Broncos are the better team, though.  Western Michigan is outgaining teams by 106.0 yards per game.  They are averaging 448.2 yards per game on offense and giving up 342.5 yards per game on defense.  The Broncos are clearly better than their 6-5 record would indicate.

Northern Illinois is only outgaining teams by 2.6 yards per game, averaging 439.1 yards per game on offense and giving up 436.5 yards per game on defense.  They have been one of the most lucky teams in the country winning so many close games to get to 8-3 this season.  Seven of their eight wins have come by one score with the lone exception being against FCS Maine.

Western Michigan is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games following three or more consecutive ATS losses.  Northern Illinois is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.

15* CBB Cancun Challenge ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -4.5

Buffalo is picked to win the MAC and the MAC is one of the best mid-major conferences in the country, especially at the top.  Ohio upset Belmont, Akron nearly upset Ohio State losing by 1, Kent State gave Xavier a run for its money and Buffalo covered in a competitive effort against Michigan.

The Bulls returned four starters this season including three who averages at least 13 points per game in Jeenathan Williams (17.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Josh Mballa (15.3 PPG, 10.8 RPG) and Ronaldo Segu (13.3 PPG, 4.3 APG).  Williams is averaging 21.7 PPG and 7.0 RPG, Mballa 12.7 PPG and 8.3 RPG and Segu 13.7 PPG and 4.3 APG to this point during their 2-1 start.

This will be the first road game of the season for Stephen F. Austin.  They are clearly rebuilding this season as evidenced from their first two games, beating LSU-Alexanderia 82-73 and Mary Hardin-Baylor 76-63.  They lost 71-83 at home to South Dakota State as 2-point dogs, and needed a huge second half to beat Middle Tennessee 87-74.  Buffalo is on the same level as South Dakota State this season.

Buffalo is 10-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games off a home win.  The Lumberjacks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Stephen F. Austin is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Take Buffalo Tuesday.

20* Giants/Bucs ESPN No-Brainer on New York +11.5

The Tampa Bay Bucs continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers after winning the Super Bowl last year.  They are just 3-6 ATS this season.  After losing 27-36 on the road to the Saints and Trevor Siemian, the Bucs had their bye week and many expected a big effort.  Instead, they lost outright 19-29 to Washington as 10-point favorites.

Now the Bucs come back as 11.5-point home favorites over another NFC East team in the New York Giants.  This despite the fact that the Bucs are missing several key players.  They are missing three cornerbacks, and they lost their run stuffer in Vita Vea last week with an injury.  He is crucial to their front seven and is one of the most underrated players in the NFL.  Offensively, they'll still be without Rob Gronkowki, and Antonio Brown is questionable after sitting last week.

Don't look now but the Giants are quietly playing some great football.  They have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat Carolina 25-3 as 3-point dogs and Las Vegas 23-16 as 3-point dogs.  Their lone loss, they nearly upset the Chiefs in a 17-20 defeat as 10.5-point road dogs.  And now they are coming off their bye week and will be even healthier than they were last time out against the Raiders.

The Giants are a pretty easy team to figure out.  Always bet them as a road underdogs.  Indeed, the Giants are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games, and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs.  The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Giants are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Tampa Bay.  Bruce Arians is 0-6 ATS vs. NFC East opponents as the coach of Tampa Bay.  Bet the Giants Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +12

What more do the Oklahoma City Thunder have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  They have gone 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall and have been an underdog in 15 of their 16 games this season.  They continue catching too many points here as 12-point dogs to the Atlanta Hawks.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Hawks, who have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They had gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their previous six games prior to this run.  And they should not be double-digit favorites here against the Thunder.

Oklahoma City is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 road games following two or more consecutive road losses.  Well, those road losses came to the Bucks by 7 and Celtics by 6, so they were competitive against two teams that are probably better than the Hawks.  

The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Oklahoma City is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Thunder are 23-10 ATS in the last 33 meetings, including 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Atlanta.  Take the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -3.5

The Washington Wizards are 11-5 SU & 10-5-1 ATS this season.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  And now they are out for revenge from an 87-97 road loss at Charlotte on Wednesday just five days ago.  They'll be motivated and they'll get the win and cover because of it.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Hornets, who are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They had gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous five games.  It's just not a team I trust very much because they don't play defense.

Indeed, the Hornets are giving up 113.7 points per game while ranking 25th in defensive efficiency.  Washington scored 87 points and shot just 36.7% including 8-of-42 from 3-point range against the Hornets last meeting.  That's not going to happen again.  And a big reason for the Wizards improvement this season is ranking 9th in defensive efficiency.

Washington is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games after a combined score of 205 points or fewer.  Charlotte is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games as a road underdog.  The Hornets are 18-44 ATS in their last 62 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Washington is 30-14-1 ATS in its last 45 games overall.  The Wizards are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Wizards Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -1

South Dakota State is the best team in the underrated Summit League this season.  The Jackrabbits returned all five starters from a team that went 16-7 overall last year and 9-3 in Summit play.  And not just any five starters, how about five staters that all averaged in double figures last year.  They also return four bench players that played significant minutes last year, allowing the Jackrabbits to play at the break-neck pace that made them the Summit's most efficient offense last season.

They are off to a 4-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Alabama on the road.  Well, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country.  They also beat Stephen F. Austin 83-71 as a 2-point favorite, Montana State 91-74 as a 10-point favorite and Bradley 81-65 as a 9-point favorite to cover the spread in all three games.  They are the real deal this season.

Few teams have been more disappointing than Nevada this season.  They returned almost everyone from last year, but they are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS.  They lost outright to San Diego by 7 at home as a 13.5-point favorite.  They lost by 22 at Santa Clara as a 1.5-point favorite.  Those two results alone show how broken this team is.

This will essentially be a home game for the Jackrabbits being played in Sioux Falls, South Dakota in the Crossover Classic.  The Jackrabbits are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall and have been one of the most underrated teams in the country for a couple seasons now.  Take South Dakota State Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Hofstra +9.5

Hofstra is one of the top teams in the Colonial Athletic Conference this season.  They returned three starters, brought in five transfers and three freshmen who will battle for playing time.  I've been impressed with how well the Pride have played in the early going against a brutal schedule.

Hofstra only lost by 8 at Houston as 18.5-point dogs, upset Duquesne by 10 as 4-point road dogs, only lost by 8 at Iona as 5.5-point dogs and lost by 2 at Maryland as 12.5-point dogs.  Taking Houston and Maryland to the wire on the road is no small feat and shows this team's potential.

Now the Pride are catching 9.5-points on the road to an overrated Richmond team.  The Spiders are just 2-2 this season with their two wins coming against NC Central by 10 as 26-point favorites and Georgia State by 16.  They lost by 11 on a neutral as 6.5-point favorites to Utah State.  They also lost on the road to Drake to sit at 2-2 this season.  Now they'll be playing their 2nd game in 3 days after having to travel back home from Des Moines, Iowa off that Drake loss.

Hofstra is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. ad defensive teams that allow 45% shooting or higher.  Richmond is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 77% or better.  The Pride are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 road games.  The Spiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.  Roll with Hofstra Monday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors +10.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Golden State Warriors.  Bettors are paying a tax on them now after opening 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS this season.  But now they are double-digit favorites over a quality Toronto Raptors team that is getting healthy and ready to give the Warriors a run for their money.

The Raptors are coming off one of their best performances of the season in a 108-89 win at Sacramento as 3.5-point underdogs.  Pascal Siakam is back healthy and had a monster game, scoring 32 points on 10-of-12 shooting.  This team just has too much talent overall to be catching double-digits from the Warriors.

I always like fading teams in home games following a long road trip.  The Warriors are coming off a four-game trip that ended with a 3-point win at Detroit.  Now they are back home and a tired team, playing their 9th game in 15 days.  They have six players on the injury report as they are starting to feel the fatigue.  That includes Curry, Green, Porter Jr. and Iguodala, who are all questionable.

The Raptors are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.  Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Raptors Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Florida State -6.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Florida State Seminoles.  After crushing Pennsylvania by 35, they were upset by Florida and had a hangover from that defeat in a 5-point win over Tulane as a 16.5-point favorite.  Look for them to play up to their potential tonight and easily cover this short 6.5-point spread against Loyola-Marymount.

It's clearly Loyola-Marymount isn't as good as they were supposed to be coming into the season.  They are 2-1 against a very soft schedule with two very concerning efforts.  They lost outright to Chattanooga 64-75 as a 7point favorite and only beat Arizona Christian 74-67 in a game with no line.  They did beat Arkansas-Little Rock 82-63, and now this is a huge step up in class for them.

Plays on neutral court teams as favorites or PK (Florida State) - off a home no-cover where they won SU as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 65-28 (69.9%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Florida State Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +3.5

Boston College will be out for revenge from a 49-57 road loss to Rhode Island as 4.5-point underdogs on November 17th just a few days ago.  Now the Eagles come back as 3.5-point dogs on a neutral in the Sunshine Slam played in Daytona Beach, FL.

I just expect the Eagles to be the more motivated team in the rematch, and for that to carry them to an outright victory.  Plus, Boston College isn't going to shoot 25% again like they did in that first meeting, and they still only lost by 8 with Rhode Island shooting 44.2%.  They had 42 rebounds compared to 29 for Rhode Island and should have a big edge on the glass again.  Bet Boston College Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans +10.5

This is the spot the Tennessee Titans have their letdown.  They have now won six straight games including five in a row against playoff teams from last year.  I question how much they have left in the tank after their wins over the Jaguars, Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams and Saints the last six weeks.  

This is a tired team right now too as the Titans haven't had a bye week yet and won't get one until Week 13.  The injuries are piling up.  They have 23 players on injured reserve.  They are already without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, leaving basically just Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown as their best offensive players by far.  LB's Bud Dupree, David Long Jr. and Rashaan Evans are all questionable, as is CB Greg Mabin.

The Titans were very fortunate to beat the Rams and Saints the last two weeks with their lack of offense.  They beat the Rams despite just 194 total yards.  They managed just 264 total yards against the Saints and had a fluky roughing the passer penalty go their way on Tannehill that wiped out an INT in the end zone and led to 7 points, which was the difference in their 23-21 victory.  It also helped that the Saints missed two extra points.  And the Saints should have won that game with a third-string QB in Trevor Siemian and without their best player in Alvin Kamara.

The Texans will be highly motivated for their first victory since Week 1.  They are coming off their bye week and facing the division leader in the Titans, so they will give a big effort.  It's clear they are still trying to win games or they wouldn't have brought back QB Tyrod Taylor.  He was rusty in his first start back against the Dolphins, but he should get back to his old self off a bye.  And his old self is a covering machine and one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL with his ability as a dual-threat.

Both meetings last season were decided by 3 and 6 points.  And in both games, the Texans had a chance to win late but fumbled going into the end zone.  They have not forgotten, and they would love nothing more than to get their revenge here.  I think they have an excellent chance to win outright, but at the very least they will cover this 10.5-point spread with ease.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Houston) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four games are 36-4 (86.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Houston) after six or more consecutive losses in Weeks 10 through 13 are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS since 1983.  This is the ultimate 'buy low, sell high' spot.  We'll 'buy low' on the Texans off eight straight losses.  And we'll 'sell high' on the Titans off six straight wins.  It's that simple folks as we are getting max line value here.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* Colts/Bills AFC No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7.5

The Buffalo Bills have beaten up on the bad teams they have faced.  Their six wins have come against Houston, Miami (twice), Washington, Kansas City and the New York Jets.  Five of those six wins came against teams that are 3-6 or worse.  The lone decent win was against the Chiefs, but they are way down this season too.  The Bills also lost to the Jaguars, Steelers and Titans.  They have played the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL according to Sagain.

The Colts have played a much tougher schedule.  And they are playing their best football of the season after a slow start.  The Colts have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their two losses both came in overtime to the Ravens and Titans in games in which they blew late leads.  So they haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 6 points.

The Colts are as healthy as they have been all season.  They have a Top 10 defense to contain Josh Allen and this offense.  And the Colts have been serviceable with Carson Wentz at quarterback and the running of Jonathan Taylor at running back.  There could be some bad weather in Buffalo Sunday, so that favors the team that can run the football in the Colts.  The Bills have struggled to run the ball again this season.

One sneaky factor here is that the Colts want revenge from a 24-27 road loss as nearly identical 7-point underdogs to the Bills in the playoffs last year.  They actually deserved to win that game outright.  They had 472 total yards against this Buffalo defense and outgained them by 75 yards.  They rushed for 163 yards on this Buffalo defense.

The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt.  Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game.  The Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.  

I just think this line is too big of an overreaction to Buffalo's blowout win over the Jets last week in which the Jets committed five turnovers.  They had just lost outright to the Jaguars as a 14.5-point favorite the week prior, so it's amazing how the betting markets shift their opinions in just one week.  The Colts are not the type of team that gets blown out, they are too solid everywhere and will keep this game within one score.  Take the Colts Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -3

You definitely need to jump on the Dolphins as soon as possible.  This line isn't going to hold at -3 for much longer.  Joe Flacco is expected to start for the Jets.  He has been a disaster and it's amazing he is even in the league.  They will now be on their 4th different starting quarterback.  

The offense will be a mess with him at the helm.  And it just shows the Jets don't care about winning games by inserting Flacco instead of Mike White or Josh Johnson.  They don't want there to be a QB controversy when Zach Wilson comes back.

New York's defense is already a mess, allowing a total of 175 points in their last 4 games for an average of 43.4 points per game.  This is far and away the worst defense in the NFL.  The Dolphins are in line for one of their best offensive performances of the season this week.

Tua came back in the 2nd half against the Ravens and led them to a 22-10 victory.  His finger looked absolutely fine.  He went 8-of-13 passing for 153 yards and averaged 12.2 yards per attempt.  He also scored a rushing touchdown.  And now the Dolphins get extra prep time after playing the Ravens last Thursday, which is basically a mine-bye week.

This  Miami defense has gotten healthy in recent weeks and is getting back to being the dominant unit that led this team last year.  They held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 10 points and 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers.  That came a week after holding the Texans to just 9 points and 272 yards while forcing 4 more turnovers.    And that was a Texans team with Tyrod Taylor at QB, which is a big upgrade over Davis Mills.

Miami won both meetings last year in blowout fashion, 24-0 at home and 20-3 on the road.  The Dolphins improved to 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and just a hot mess right now from head coach Robert Saleh, to the leaky defense, to the washed up Joe Flacco at quarterback.  There's just nothing to like about them right now.  

Miami has all the 'buy on' signs you are looking for late in the season.  They are undervalued due to their 3-7 record.  But they have won two straight and have a great chance of getting back to .500 at 7-7 with the upcoming schedule.  After facing the Jets this week, they get three straight home games against the Panthers, Giants and Jets in games they should be favored in.  Everything is still in front of them.  Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss PK

The Ole Miss Rebels are 3-1 this season with their only loss coming to Marquette by 6.  And it's clear Marquette is actually pretty good with wins over Illinois and West Virginia already this season as well.  The Rebels have won their three games all by 18 points or more and will be one of the most improved teams in the country after COVID destroyed them last year.

Boise State lost a lot of talent from last year's team and is getting too much respect after having a good season.  The Broncos are 2-2 this season with their two wins coming against Utah Valley State and Temple.  They lost to UC-Irvine 50-58 as 2-point road favorites and St. Bonaventure 61.67 as 3.5-point dogs.

Ole Miss is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds in its prevous game.  Take Ole Miss Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Nebraska-Omaha +12.5

We have an underrated Nebraska-Omaha team up against an overrated Montana team here Saturday.  Omaha should not be catching double-digits in this showdown that should come right down to the wire.

Omaha only lost by 4 at Ball State as 10.5-point dogs and by 15 at Kansas State as 17.5-point dogs in its last two games coming in.  Montana lost by 37 as 11.5-point dogs at Mississippi State and by 2 as 7-point favorites at North Dakota in its last two games.

Omaha is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points.  Montana is 0-11 ATS in it last 11 Saturday games.  The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  The Grizzlies are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Montana is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite.  Take Nebraska-Omaha Saturday.

15* Oregon/Utah ABC ANNIHILATOR on Utah -3

Utah is a one-way team for me right now.  I'm either backing them or passing.  Kyle Whittingham has this team playing up to its potential now after a slow start to the season.  The Utes are 6-1 in their last seven games overall.

They have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They are 4-0 at home this season with all four wins by double-digits.  And this will be a night game at 7:30 EST at Rice-Eccles Stadium.  That makes it one of the best atmospheres in all of college football.  Not to mention the Utes would clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Championship with a win, so they have a lot to play for.

I haven't been a big Oregon believer all season.  They seem to just keep escaping with wins ever since that victory over Ohio State.  I think their run ends here Saturday against the best team in the Pac-12 in my opinion in Utah.  The Utes definitely have the better quarterback.  I bet Whittingham wishes he started Cameron Rising over Charlie Brewer from the start.

Rising has responded with a 14-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  His dual-threat ability has been the key to this offense, though.  Rising has rushed for 321 yards and 4 touchdowns while averaging 7.1 per carry.  Utah has scored 34 or more points in 6 consecutive games now with Rising at the helm.

Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Ducks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win.  The Utes are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 conference games.

Plays on home teams (Utah) - after three or more consecutive wins against an opponent that's off five or more consecutive wins are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +10

The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to get the money this season because they get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and catching double-digits again tonight after covering in a 7-point loss at Milwaukee as a 12.5-point dog last night.

The Celtics will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they are coming off a huge win over the rival Lakers.  This is certainly a letdown spot for them now.  It will also be the 6th game in 9 days for the Celtics, so they won't have much left in the tank to beat the Thunder, let alone do it by double-digits.

Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after scoring 95 points or less last game.  The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Celtics are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Boston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +36.5

The 2-8 record for Vanderbilt has the Commodores undervalued here down the stretch.  They have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only lost by 1 at South Carolina as 19-point dogs, by 9 to Missouri as 16.5-point dogs and by 17 to Kentucky as 21.5-point dogs.

Now the Commodores are looking forward to this opportunity to try and knock off Ole Miss.  Meanwhile, the Rebels won't be up for this game at all.  They are coming off their huge win over Texas A&M last week, and now they have an even bigger game on deck Thursday in the Egg Bowl against their biggest rivals in Mississippi State.  

That makes this a sandwich spot.  The Rebels won't be excited to face Vanderbilt, and they will be looking ahead to that game against Mississippi State.  Since it's on Thanksgiving on a short week, they just want to try and go into that game healthy and fresh.  Look for them to rest starters in the second half like they did against Liberty if it comes down to it.  This is a tired Rebels team as it is playing for an 8th consecutive week.

Vanderbilt is the much fresher team.  They had a bye prior to Kentucky last week, which allowed them to cover that number and only lose by 17.  They should still be fresh for this one, which is key going up against a team like Ole Miss that plays with tempo.

The Commodores are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Ole Miss.  The Commodores are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games following three or more consecutive losses.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -7

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight on the road all by single-digits.  In fact, they have played seven of their last eight games on the road.  But they are back home now where they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games with wins by 13 over the Spurs, 13 over the Knicks and 5 over the 76ers.

While both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, it's a better spot for the Pacers than it is the Pelicans.  Injuries have ravaged the short-handed Pelicans this season.  They are just 3-14 SU & 7-10 ATS this season because of it.  They don't boast the depth that the Pacers do, and that will be a factor here.

New Orleans is 0-9 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 108 or fewer points per game.  The Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  The Pacers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games playing on zero rest.

Plays on any team (Indiana) - off three or more consecutive road losses, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +29.5

Tim Miles is a great head coach and one of the more underrated hires of the offseason.  He's already turning San Jose State into a competent program this year.  The Spartans are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS with three competitive games as underdogs.

After upsetting CS-Fullerton 78-76 as 5.5-point dogs, San Jose State also covered in a 14-point road loss at Stanford as 18.5-point dogs.  They then nearly upset Cal Baptist in a 1-point loss as 11-point road dogs.  And now they are catching 29.5 points against Texas, which is too much.

Texas came into the season with a ton of hype due to the hiring of Chris Beard from Texas Tech .  But the Longhorns have fallen flat, losing by 12 to Gonzaga as 7.5-point dogs and only beating Northern Colorado by 13 as 21-point favorites in their last two games coming into this one.

Texas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after a win by 10 points or more.  The Longhorns are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 home games following a win.  Texas is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA -3

The UCLA Bruins returned from their bye and smoked Colorado 44-20 as an 18-point favorite.  Now they will still be fresh and ready to take down their rivals in the USC Trojans, who don't care about this game as much as the Bruins do.  UCLA wants revenge from a gut-wrenching 43-38 loss to the Trojans last year.

USC is a program in turmoil with a lame-duck interim head coach.  Their play on the field has reflected it.  The Trojans are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only victory came in a nail biter against the worst team in the Pac-12 in Arizona by a final of 41-34 as a 21.5-point favorite.

USC lost 16-31 on the road to Notre Dame as a 7.5-point dog.  They lost 26-42 at home as a 3-point favorite against Utah.  And they also lost 16-31 as a 10-point dog at Arizona State.  So they lost all three games by 15 points or more and weren't competitive.  I don't expect them to be competitive Saturday, either.

USC is without starting QB Kedon Slovis.  Backup Jaxson Dart will get the start, and he just hasn't been as effective this season.  And he won't have the services of top wideout Drake London, who has 88 receptions for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns this season.  The next-best receiver has 41 receptions, 474 yards and one score, so the loss of London is huge.

The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  USC is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog.  Roll with UCLA Saturday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on SMU +11.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are feeling the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff.  They are just surviving and advancing at this point.  And they are overvalued late in the year due to their perfect 10-0 record.  That unbeaten record is in jeopardy this weekend against arguably the best team they have faced yet in the SMU Mustangs.

The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only beat Navy by 7 as 28.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by 37 yards by the Midshipmen.  They needed a late surge to beat Tulane by 19 as a 27.5-point favorite and only outgained them by 71 yards.  They were outgained by 56 yards in an 8-point win over Tulsa as a 22.5-point favorite.  And they got a late INT return TD to win by 17 over South Florida as a 24.5-point favorite last week.

SMU is looking at this game as its 'National Championship' game.  The Mustangs sit at 8-2 but have a head-to-head loss to Houston, which will likely keep them out of the AAC title game.  They would love nothing more than to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati.

The two losses by SMU came by 3 and 7 points this season.  They are coming off a 55-28 win over UCF as a 7-point favorite, so they have momentum.  And they have the offense to give Cincinnati a run for its money.  No question, this is the best offense the Bearcats will have faced this season.

The Mustangs are putting up 41.6 points and 498.8 yards per game this season.  Their defense has been respectable in allowing 25.9 points per game.  There's a chance the Bearcats will be without leading rusher Jerome Ford, who has accounted for 1,053 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns this season.  He missed last week's game against USF and is questionable for this one.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet SMU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -2.5

There's just no salvaging the season for Texas at this point.  The damage has already been done.  They have lost five straight games coming in.  They followed up their 23-point loss to Iowa State by getting upset as a 31-point favorite against Kansas last week.

I just don't see them getting back up off the mat to take the long road trip to West Virginia.  There is so much turmoil in this program right now.  I think it's best we keep fading them for these last two games.  And I like the spot for West Virginia, which needs to more wins to make a bowl and plays Kansas next week.

It's always a tough trip for this Big 12 teams going all the way out to West Virginia.  Just ask Iowa State a few weeks ago when the Mountaineers upset them.  And you know West Virginia has had this game circled after coming up just short at Texas last year in a 17-13 loss.  They were driving late in the final seconds of that game to go in for the game-winning score, but the refs didn't throw an obvious pass interference penalty in the end zone that likely would have given them the win.  I know because I had West Virginia in that game as they covered as 6.5-point dogs.

West Virginia's last two losses to Oklahoma State and Kansas State were misleading.  They held Oklahoma State to just 285 yards.  They held Kansas State to just 299 yards.  They still have one of the best defenses in the Big 12.  And their offense should come to life like it did against Iowa State 3 weeks ago when they had 492 yards against a very good Iowa State defense.

This Texas defense is soft as butter.  The Longhorns just allowed 57 points to Kansas and have now allowed 30 or more points in 5 straight.  They are giving up 38.1 points per game in conference play.

West Virginia is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when coming off a game where they forced zero turnovers.  The Mountaineers are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites.  The Mountaineers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games overall.  Whether or not Texas has quit, I expect the Mountaineers to win and cover at home Saturday as I know they will show up for this game.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.