20* Commanders/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3

The Philadelphia Eagles got a much-needed bye in Week 5 to get healthy.  They got both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith back out of their bye, and they haven't looked back since.  Nobody is playing better than the Eagles since Week 6.

The Eagles are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0 ATS as well when you dig into the box scores.  They came out of their bye with a 20-16 home win over the Browns, but this was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Browns got a 50-yard blocked FG return TD right before half that turned a 13-3 game into a 10-10 game.  Philadelphia outgained Cleveland 372 to 244, or by 128 total yards.

The Eagles came back with a dominant 28-3 road win over the New York Giants in their next game.  They outgained the Giants 339 to 119, or by 220 total yards.  Their 37-17 dismantling of Cincinnati on the road might have been the most impressive of the bunch.  They outgained the Bengals 397 to 270, or by 137 total yards.  Holding Joe Burrow down like that is no fluke.

I was on the Eagles -7 in their 28-23 win over the Jaguars two weeks ago.  It was probably my worst beat of the season.  The Eagles led 22-0 and were cruising until a fluke fumble by Saquan Barkley that was caused by the ground was returned for a TD.  The Jaguars got in the back door despite the Eagles outgaining them 447 to 215, or by 232 total yards.  Last week the Eagles made easy work of the Cowboys winning 34-6 on the road and outgaining them 348 to 146, or by 202 total yards.

The offense features arguably the best playmakers in the entire NFL in QB Hurts, RB Barkley, WR Brown and WR Smith.  They recently got TE Dallas Goedert back from injury and are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now on both sides of the football.  But the improvement from the defense under first-year coordinator Vic Fangio is why I'm so high on this team.

The Eagles are allowing just 198.8 yards per game in their last five games, which is unheard of in today's NFL.  The defense has allowed a total of three touchdowns in those five games.  The offense is averaging 380.6 yards per game during this same stretch, so they are outgaining opponents by 182 yards per game.

While the Eagles are fresh having already had their bye week plus blowing out the Cowboys on Sunday putting in little effort, this is a tired Washington Commanders team that hasn't had their bye week yet.  They have played three straight one-score games with their hail mary win against the Bears three weeks ago and their 27-22 win at the Giants two weeks ago, and those performances haven't aged well.  

The Commanders were in a dog fight last week in a 28-27 loss to the Steelers, which was also a very physical game.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Eagles this week.  They have three starting offensive linemen questionable, their starting RB questionable, two starters on D questionable, and K Austin Seibert out. I like this Commanders team and have bet them several times, but this is the spot to fade them as they are tired, on a short week, and with a first-year head coach and a rookie QB.  Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last six meetings with Washington with all five wins by 3 points or more.  Bet the Eagles Thursday.

25* AAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on ECU/Tulsa O 61

This East Carolina offense has taken off in recent weeks to match the fast pace they play with.  The Pirates rank 5th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.8 seconds.  The OVER is 4-0 in ECU's last four games overall with 79, 73, 90 and 63 combined points.  

The switch to Kevin Houser at QB has made a big difference.  After throwing for 269 yards and 5 TD against Temple two games ago, he came back 343 yards and 5 TD against Florida Atlantic last week.  They have scored a total of 105 points in those two games and an average of 52.5 points per game.  But this is a poor ECU defense that has allowed 37 points per game and 440.8 yards per game in their last four games.

East Carolina will be able to name its number against this soft Tulsa defense.  The Golden Hurricane rank 130th in scoring defense at 38.4 points per game, 125th in total defense at 449.4 yards per game and 126th at 6.7 yards per play.

The OVER is 4-1 in Tulsa's last five games overall with 72 or more combined points three times.  It's largely due to the defense, which is allowing 45.0 points per game during this stretch.  They allowed 52 to North Texas, 49 to Army, 45 to UTSA and 59 to UAB.

Utah State transfer Cooper Legas has injected some life into this Tulsa offense as well.  He led the Golden Hurricane to a 46-45 comeback win over UTSA two games ago with 333 passing yards and 5 TD as well as 46 rushing yards on 13 attempts.  Legas went for 230 passing yards and 2 TD in their 59-21 loss to UAB last time out.  They had 423 total yards in that game and probably should have scored more.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 69, 73, 64 and 56 combined points.  With the way these teams are built this season, I expect them to easily combine to top 61 points Thursday night.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Blazers UNDER 221

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Not only will this be the 3rd meeting between the Blazers and Timberwolves already this season, but it will be the 2nd meeting in 2 days after these two just played last night.

Portland upset Minnesota 122-108 last night thanks to some lights out shooting that is not repeatable.  The Blazers shot 51% as a team including 18-of-32 (56%) from 3-point range.  Minnesota shot 51% as a team as well.  They also combined for 39-of-43 (90.1%) from the FT line.   Let's just say those shooting numbers are unlikely to happen again.

That game was played at a very slow pace as these are two of the slower teams in the NBA.  Now Portland lost starting PG Anfernee Simons to injury last night, and they are going to have to rely even more on defense without him moving forward.  This is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA without Simons.  Be the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +10

I'm not sure what world the San Antonio Spurs should be favored by double-digits against any team in the NBA, but it certainly isn't this one.  The Spurs are still one of the worst teams in the NBA, and I'll gladly fade them here laying double-digits to the Washington Wizards.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Wizards, who are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule of Miami, Golden State, Memphis, Orlando and Houston.  They finally get to take a big step down in class tonight against the Spurs.

The Wizards just got Kyle Kuzma back from injury in their last game at Houston and he came through with 18 points in a 15-point loss.  Having Kuzma and Jordan Poole healthy and on the court at the same time moving forward will make the Wizards much more competitive.  This game will go down to the wire tonight.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +8.5

The Brooklyn Nets are 9-2 ATS this season and one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They just lost 108-104 (OT) at Boston as 13.5-point underdogs on November 8th less than a week ago.  Now they are out for revenge here catching 8.5 points in the rematch.

The spot really favors the Nets not only because of the revenge factor, but also because of their rest advantage.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 8 days.

Meanwhile, the Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their 117-116 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks last night.  Tatum played 37 minutes, White 38 and Brown 36 last night.  Both Tatum and Brown were banged up recently and missed time, and I wouldn't be surprised if one or both sit tonight.

Either way, I think the Nets have what it takes to stay within the number against the Celtics for the 2nd time in 6 days.  Boston is grossly overvalued after winning the title last year.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +8.5

The Chicago Bulls got their best player in Zach LaVine back from injury two games ago and have played two of their best games of the season since.  They upset Atlanta 125-113 as 2.5-point road underdogs and nearly handed the Cavaliers their first loss of the season, falling 119-113 as 8-point home dogs.

The Bulls had yesterday off and have a big rest advantage over the Knicks as a result.  The Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in Philadelphia last night.  All five starters played at least 35 minutes for the Knicks last night, and they have one of the worst benches in the NBA so their starters are forced to play big minutes again this season.  They should not be favored by 8.5 points tonight given the tough rest spot.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -14.5

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the New Orleans Pelicans.  They are without three starters in Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum and Zion Williamson.  They are also without three key contributors off the bench in Jordan Hawkins, Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado.

It's no wonder the Pelicans are just 1-8 SU in their last nine games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.  Six of the eight losses came by 15 points or more, so we aren't asking much of the Thunder to cover this 14.5-point spread tonight.  The Pelicans even had some of these players healthy during this stretch, but now they have hit rock bottom in the injury department.

The Thunder did lose Chet Holmgren, but they have one of the deepest benches in the NBA and will be just fine without him in the short-term.  The Thunder are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Pelicans.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* EMU/Ohio MAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 49.5

This has been a crazy week of good weather for these MAC weekday games, which is rare for mid-November.  Temps will be in the 50's with no wind and no chance of precipitation for this start of this game between Eastern Michigan and Ohio Wednesday night.  This looks like a shootout relative to this 49.5-point total, and at the very least the total should be set in the 50's.

Eastern Michigan has gone up-tempo this season ranking 23rd in the country in seconds between snaps.  That move has propelled the Eagles to have one of the most improved offenses in the country.  The Eagles are scoring 29.2 points per game and averaging 392.1 yards per game with a balanced attack that averages 246 passing yards per game and 146 rushing.

Ohio is scoring 26.2 points per game and averaging 383.2 yards per game.  The Bobcats average 6.0 yards per play, which is one of the best numbers in the MAC.  This Ohio offense is humming right now putting up 47 points against Buffalo and 41 against Kent State in their last two games coming in.  QB Parker Navarro is a dual-threat with 556 rushing yards and 6.2 per carry, and Northwestern transfer RB Anthony Tyus is a playmaker with 694 rushing yards in basically just seven games.

The Bobcats should be able to name their number against a soft Eastern Michigan defense that ranks 115th in the country in allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Eagles are allowing 31.8 points per game in conference play despite getting to face Akron, CMU and Kent State.  The OVER is 4-1 in EMU's last five games overall with 52 or more combined points in four of the five.  The OVER is 3-1 in Ohio's last four games with 50 or more combined points in three of the four.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on St. John's -24

In Rick Pitino I trust.  He led the St. John's Red Storm to a 20-13 season in his first year on the job last season and they were snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.  So they have been motivated all offseason, and reinforcements are on the way.

One of the biggest pulls of the portal was bringing Kadary Richmond in from rival Seton Hall.  Utah transfer Deivon Smith (5 triple-doubles last year) and five-star freshman Simeon Wilcher will join Richmond in the backcourt.

RJ Luis (10.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) is the leading returning scorer and will lead them in the frontcourt.  North Texas transfer Aaron Scott is a great two-way player.  They have great size with 7-1 USC transfer Vince Iwuchukwu along with freshmen Khaman Maker (7-1) and Ruben Prey (6-10).

St. John's blasted Fordham 92-60 as 19.5-point favorites in their opener, covering the spread by 12.5 points.  They showed off their depth with nine players scoring at least 5 points.  That's a Fordham team that went on to upset Seton Hall 57-56 as 10.5-point dogs, so that result looks even better now.

The Red Storm actually trailed Quinnipiac 39-35 at halftime last game.  They got a ripping from Pitino at halftime and responded outscoring Quinnipiac 61-34 after intermission, actually covering the 20-point spread to boot in a 96-73 victory.  That comeback effort shows what the Red Storm are capable of when locked in.

I expect the Red Storm to be locked in from the jump tonight against Wagner, which lost 75-52 as 17-point dogs at Rutgers in their opener.  That's a Rutgers team that struggled to put away St. Peter's 75-65 in their next game as 16.5-point favorites, so that result looks even worse now.  Wagner lost three starters who all averaged double-digits scoring last year.  Bet St. John's Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Jazz OVER 225

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 6th in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  They are fully healthy right now so they are a much better offensive team when that's the case.

The Suns won't mind keeping up with the Jazz in a shootout tonight.  The Suns have gone with more pace and more 3-pointers this season under first-year head coach Mike Budenholzer.

The Suns and their opponents have combined for at least 227 points in four straight games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 230 or more combined points in all four meetings, including 244 or more in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Duke/Kentucky ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 160.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team with first-year head coach Mark Pope running the show.  He brings over his pace and space philosophy from BYU, and it is already paying dividends at Kentucky.

The Wildcats rank 25th in adjusted tempo, 20th in average offensive possession length, and 17th in offensive rating.  They went OVER the total in each of their first two games beating Wright State 103-62 for 165 combined points and Bucknell 100-72 for 172 combined points.

Duke is absolutely loaded at the guard position this season and is playing faster than last year because of it.  The Blue Devils rank 3rd in offensive rating this season and 42nd on average length of offensive possessions.  They put up 100 points on Army and 96 points on Maine in their first two games.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on South Dakota +23

This is the rare situation where Iowa and South Dakota have two common opponents already to compare results to.  And after looking at those results, it's clearly there's value on South Dakota +23 at Iowa tonight.

South Dakota beat Southern 93-79 as 2.5-point home favorites and East Texas A&M 91-83 as 10.5-point home favorites.  The Coyotes outscored those two teams by a combined 22 points.

Iowa beat East Texas A&M 89-67 as 30-point home favorites and Southern 89-74 as 26-point home favorites.  The Hawkeyes outscored those two teams by a combined 37 points.

I just don't like Iowa's roster this season, while I like the direction of this South Dakota program entering head coach Eric Peterson's third year on the job.  He brings back three starters and several key reserves.  Two experienced guard transfers in Forte and Bullock join the team this season, as do the Bruns brothers, Paul and Isaac.  All four are making significant contributions already as all four are averaging double-digits scoring.  Bet South Dakota Tuesday.

15* WMU/Bowling Green MAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 58.5

Western Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Broncos are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 56 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  It will be more of the same tonight as they travel to face Bowling Green.

Western Michigan has one of the best offenses in the MAC ranking 30th in the country in scoring offense at 33.3 points per game and 23rd at 6.5 yards per play.  But the Broncos also have one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 123rd in scoring defense at 34.7 points per game, 116th at 427.6 yards per game and 118th at 6.4 yards per play.

Bowling Green has a balanced offense that averages 5.9 yards per play against a brutal schedule that features Penn State and Texas A&M in non-conference.  This BG offense put up 41 points on a solid Toledo defense two games ago.  I fully expect one of their best offensive performances of the season tonight against Western Michigan in what will be a shootout with very few stops.  The forecast looks good with no wind or precipitation, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ball State/Buffalo OVER 53.5

Ball State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Cardinals are 7-1-1 OVER in all games this season.  They have a respectable offense, but their defense is one of the worst in the country.  They rank 132nd in scoring at 38.9 points per game, 129th in total defense at 461.3 yards per game and 134th at 7.2 yards per play.

Buffalo runs an up-tempo offense that ranks 33rd in the country in seconds per play.  The Bulls have scored 30, 41 and 41 points in three of their last four games and should be able to name their number on this Ball State defense.  The Bulls rank 97th in scoring defense allowing 29.0 points per game and 105th in total defense at 408.7 yards per game.  The Cardinals should be able to keep pace.

The OVER is 5-0 in Bulls' last five games overall with 63 or more combined points in each of their last three games.  The forecast looks good for a shootout with no wind or precipitation, which is rare for these midweek MAC games in November.  We'll take advantage.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Dolphins/Rams ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50.5

Having a healthy Tua Tagovailoa on the field makes all the difference for this Miami offense.  That has played out the last two weeks as they put up 27 points and 377 total yards against the Cardinals in his return two weeks ago, and then 27 points and 373 total yards against the Buffalo Bills last week.

Having a healthy Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua makes all the difference for this Rams offense as well.  Kupp and Nacua returned two weeks ago to lead the Rams to a 30-20 win over the Vikings behind 386 total yards.  They also put up 26 points last week on the Seahawks despite Nacua getting ejected in the 1H.  He will be back this week, and all four of these guys are healthy.

Given the current health of both of these offenses, I expect both to have their way with these suspect opposing defenses.  The Dolphins just gave up 28 points to the Cardinals and 30 points to the Bills in their last two games.  The Rams have allowed at least 20 points in eight of their nine games, including 24 or more six times.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Dolphins/Rams ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles ML -130

I've backed the Rams with success in each of their last two games and I'm back on them for many of the same reasons.  Having a healthy Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua makes all the difference for this Rams offense.  Kupp and Nacua returned two weeks ago to lead the Rams to a 30-20 win over the Vikings behind 386 total yards.  They also put up 26 points last week on the Seahawks despite Nacua getting ejected in the 1H.  He will be back this week, and all four of these guys are healthy.

This Los Angeles defense is better than it gets credit for, too.  The Rams have held their last three opponents to an average of 18.3 points per game.  They held the Vikings to just 276 total yards in their last home game which is no small feat considering all of their weapons.  I like the way this Los Angeles defense is trending much more than that of the Dolphins.

Yes, the Dolphins have a much better offense with Tua Tagovailoa back and healthy, but they still managed to lose their last two games.  They lost 28-27 at home to Arizona in his return two weeks ago, and they lost 30-27 at Buffalo last week.  That game against Buffalo was really their 'last stand' in trying to keep their playoff hopes alive.  They now sit at just 2-6 on the season, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

I like the mindset of this Rams team a lot more right now.  They gutted out two huge wins against the Vikings and Seahawks the last two weeks to improve to 4-4 on the season.  They now trail the Cardinals by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the NFC West.  The Cardinals are underdogs to the Jets this week, so they could find themselves in 1st place with a win.  The Rams also have a huge advantage at head coach with Sean McVay over Mike McDaniels.  Bet the Rams on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Bulls OVER 237

The Chicago Bulls have seen a shift in philosophy this season to play faster and shoot more 3's.  The Bulls are taking it to the extreme ranking 1st in the NBA in pace this season.  The Bulls are just 19th in defensive rating, so playing faster has hurt them defensively.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have seen the same shift in philosophy under Kenny Atkinson.  They are playing faster and shooting more 3's.  They rank 9th in pace and 1st in offensive rating.  This has the makings of an extremely high-scoring game tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS this season and the lone remaining unbeaten team in the NBA.  With that perfect record comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very hard to live up to.

The Cavaliers are starting to lack motivation because of their fast start and are starting to feel 'fat and happy.  We have seen that play out in recent games as they have escaped with a couple close wins.  They only beat the Nets by 5 at home as 12.5-point favorites and the Bucks by 2 as 8.5-point home favorites.

The Bulls just got their best player in Zach LaVine back from injury and upset the Hawks 125-113 as 2.5-point road dogs last time out.  The Bulls are now fully healthy with the exception of Lonzo Ball.  They are more than capable of competing with the Cavaliers now.

The Bulls are 2-0 ATS in their last two meetings with the Cavaliers only losing by 3 as 9-point road dogs and upsetting the Cavaliers by 9 as 5.5-point home dogs.  We will 'sell high' on unbeaten Cleveland tonight.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Brooklyn Nets -1.5

The Brooklyn Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They took both the Cavaliers and the Celtics to the wire on the road in their last two games to show their potential.  They lost 108-104 (OT) as 13.5-point dogs at Boston and 105-100 as 12.5-point dogs at Cleveland, and those are arguably the two best teams in the NBA.

Now the Nets get to take on the most injury-ravaged team in the NBA in the New Orleans Pelicans, who are 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall largely due to all these injuries.  They are without three starters right now in Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum and Dejounte Murray.  They are also without two key role players in Herbert Jones and Jordan Hawkins.

With the Pelicans basically the worst team in the NBA right now in their current state given all their injuries, I'll gladly fade them again tonight.  The Nets should be favored by more.  Bet the Nets Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Texans OVER 48

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one of the worst defenses since losing by far their best defender in DE Aidan Hutchinson.  Their defense hasn't totally been exposed yet due to circumstance, but they will get exposed by the Houston Texans tonight and will be forced to try to keep up in a shootout indoors in perfect conditions.

The Lions rank 1st in scoring offense at 32.2 points per game and 4th averaging 6.3 yards per play.  But defensively they rank just 22nd in total defense at 357.1 yards per game allowed and 24th at 5.9 yards per play.  Not only are they without Hutchinson, but they are also without LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Emmanuel Moseley, and they have six defensive linemen on IR.  That's why they traded for DE Za'Darius Smith, and he isn't even sure to play since it came on such short notice.

Three games ago the Lions allowed 383 yards to the Vikings.  Two games ago they allowed 416 total yards to what was a previously dead Tennessee offense.  And last week despite playing in a downpour all game, they allowed 411 total yards to the Packers.  They have been exposed as far as teams moving the football at will on them, it just hasn't exactly shown up on the scoreboard.

I'm 'buying' on this Houston Texans offense this week.  They already have a great running game with Joe Mixon, and now they should get Nico Collins back from injury this week, and he means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense.  He was officially activated to the 53-man roster on Saturday.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  They also got good news on Tank Dell as he is good to go as well.

The Texans will be without their best pass rusher in Will Anderson.  The Texans have allowed at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.  They will also be forced to keep up in a shootout because the Detroit Lions are going to be completely contained.  This is just a very low total for a game involving these two teams in their current state right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Texans +5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Detroit Lions.  They have been covering machines since Jared Goff and Dan Campbell teams up.  But now you are paying a tax to back them this week as they are 5-point road favorites on the opener against the Houston Texans, which I grabbed Sunday night.  I still like them down to the current line of +3.5 as I think the Texans can win this game outright.

While the Lions have a great offense, they have a defense that has been exposed due to all their injuries, it just hasn't exactly shown up on the scoreboard yet.  Detroit ranks just 22nd in total defense at 357.1 yards per game allowed and 24th at 5.9 yards per play.  Not only are they without their most important defender in DE Aidan Hutchinson, but they are also without LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Emmanuel Moseley, and they have six defensive linemen on IR.  That's why they traded for DE Za'Darius Smith, and he isn't even sure to play since it came on such short notice.

Three games ago the Lions allowed 383 yards to the Vikings.  Two games ago they allowed 416 total yards to what was a previously dead Tennessee offense.  And last week despite playing in a downpour all game, they allowed 411 total yards to the Packers.  They have been exposed as far as teams moving the football at will on them, and more times than not teams are going to turn those yards into points.

I'm 'buying' on this Houston Texans offense this week.  They already have a great running game with Joe Mixon, and now they should get Nico Collins back from injury this week, and he means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense.  He was officially activated to the 53-man roster on Saturday.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  They also got good news on Tank Dell as he is good to go as well.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Lions, who sit in 1st place in the NFC North and  1st place in the NFC after a huge 24-14 win at Green Bay last week.  They also beat the Vikings and the Cowboys on the road recently.  They are 'fat and happy' right now and ready to get knocked off their pedestal.  It was a misleading win over the Packers to boot because they were outgained by 150 yards by the Packers.  But the difference in the game was a bad pick-6 by a hobbled Jordan Love when he was trying to avoid a sack in the rain.

The spot is a great one for the Texans.  They are motivated coming off a road loss to the Jets, and that was on Thursday Night Football last week.  So they have had a mini-bye to get healthy and refocused, and they needed to get healthy especially on offense at receivers and along the offensive line.  They should be fully healthy on defense as well with the exception of DE Will Anderson.  I love the spot for them this week.  Bet the Texans Sunday night.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Timberwolves OVER 218

The Miami Heat lost Jimmy Butler to an ankle injury in the 1st quarter of their 135-122 loss at Denver last time out.  The Heat want to be more of a pace and space team this season, and sometimes the ball sticks when Butler is on the floor.  That slows down the tempo of the game.

We really saw it speed up against the Nuggets when he was off the floor for the remainder of the game.  The Heat shot 43 3-pointers in the loss.  They were much worse off defensively without Butler because he is one of the best defenders in the league.  So they are a dead nuts OVER team in their current start, and that will be even more of the case if they get bench player Jamie Jaquez back from injury today.

Minnesota looks much more like an OVER team this season.  The Timberwolves are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 229 or more combined points in four of those six games.  They went for 229 points with the Blazers at home last time out and 254 combined points with the Bulls in their previous game.  Anthony Edwards is going off, and newcomers Julius Randle and Dante DiVincenzo are fitting in nicely.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Warriors/Thunder NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 227

Two elite offensive teams that both like to play fast square off tonight when the Golden State Warriors visit the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder rank 4th in the NBA in pace this season while the Warriors rank 9th.  The Warriors rank 4th in offensive rating as well including 1st in shooting percentage and 4th in scoring.

The OVER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings between the Warriors and Thunder with 234 or more combined points at the end of regulation in all eight meetings.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Commanders OVER 44

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL ranking 3rd in scoring at 29.2 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 392.0 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play.  The Pittsburgh Steelers haven't seen an offense as good as Washington yet.

But the Commanders have a leaky defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in allowing 6.0 yards per play.  They traded for CB Marshon Lattimore, but he isn't going to play this week due to a hamstring injury.  The Steelers should be able to keep pace with the Commanders in a shootout Sunday.

I'm 'buying' on this Pittsburgh offense with Russell Wilson.  The Steelers have gone 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall, the last two the most impressive with Wilson at the helm.  He led them to a 37-15 win over the Jets and 52 combined points and followed it up with a 26-18 win over the Giants and 44 combined points.

The Steelers had 409 total yards against a very good Jets' defense.  Wilson threw for 264 yards and 2 TD while opening things up for Najee Harris, who rushed for 102 yards and a score.  The Steelers had another 426 total yards against the Giants last time out.  Wilson threw for 278 yards and a score and Harris rushed for 114 yards in the win.

Washington and its opponents have combined for at least 47 points in seven of its nine games this season.  This total of 44 is too low for a game involving the Commanders, especially when you consider just how much better this Pittsburgh offense has been with Wilson at QB.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers -6

This is an eerily similar spot to last year when the 49ers had lost three straight games going into their bye week thanks to injuries.  It was one of my biggest plays of the season on the 49ers last year as they were getting healthy coming out of their bye getting Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams all back from injury.  The 49ers delivered with a 34-3 win at Jacksonville as 3-point favorites.

Now the 49ers return from their bye week expected to get back three of their best offensive weapons in McCaffrey, Deebo and JaJuan Jennings.  That's big because they lost WR Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending injury.  Jennings was making a bunch of plays before going down with injury, and CMC is worth about as much to the spread as any RB in the NFL.  Deebo does what he does making plays at receiver and out of the backfield.

The healthy 49ers team is a dangerous one, and they will be as healthy as they have been at any point this season coming out of their bye week.  I believe they can beat anybody in their current state, and I certainly think they'll make easy work of this short-handed Tampa Bay Bucs team that is not only extremely banged up, but also at a big rest disadvantage.

The Bucs will have to try and get back up off the mat on a short week after losing in OT to the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.  They gave it a valiant effort, but came up just short against the defending champs.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and their defense has to be gassed after the Chiefs got the ball first in OT and matriculated the ball down the field for the game-winning score.

The Bucs haven't gotten a bye yet this season and are a tired team with the injuries piling up.  They have an extremely suspect defense that ranks 28th in scoring at 27.0 points per game, 39th in total defense at 386.7 yards per game and 26th at 6.0 yards per play.  The Bucs have allowed an average of 33 points per game in their last five games.

While the Bucs have been short-handed on defense due to injuries for most of the season, the offense is in even worse shape right now injury-wise.  They lost their top two receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans two weeks ago.  Godwin is out for the season and Evans is unlikely to return this week.  No. 3 receiver Jalen McMillan missed the game Monday and is questionable to return.  No. 5 receiver Sterling Shepard is questionable.  They could be without four of their top five receivers, plus QB Baker Mayfield misses practice on Wednesday with a toe injury, though I expect he will go.

With all these injuries, it's no wonder the Bucs are just 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their lone win coming against the short-handed Saints.  It's going to get worse before it gets better until they get some of these key guys back from injury.  I don't give them much of a chance of keeping this game competitive against a healthy, rested and motivated San Francisco team this week.  

The 49ers are 4-4 right now and chasing the Cardinals in a tight NFC West race.  They have no margin for error now.  But despite all their injuries up to this point, the 49ers still have some of the best numbers in the NFL.  They are 2nd in total offense at 412.4 yards per game and 10th in total defense at 314.8 yards per game.  They are nearly outgaining their opponents by 100 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play on the season.  They really should be 6-2 or better right now, but their 4-4 record has them undervalued.  

Road favorites off a bye have been a huge money maker for years in the NFL.  Road favorites off a bye have covered the spread 60.4% of the time since 2004.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS thus far this season, and they will remain perfect courtesy of a San Francisco blowout in this one.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +9

The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-0 this season and the last unbeaten team remaining in the NFL.  With that perfect record comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are tough to live up to.  We have seen that play out in recent weeks as the Chiefs haven't been able to cover these large numbers.

The Chiefs beat a decimated, struggling Raiders team 27-20 on the road as 8.5-point favorites two weeks ago.  Last week they needed OT to beat an even more decimated Bucs team that was missing their top three receivers.  They won 30-24 (OT) as 8.5-point favorites.

Now the Chiefs are on a short week after playing on Monday and a tired team coming off an OT game.  Teams coming off OT games who are playing on 8 or fewer days' rest are 107-140 SU & 108-136-3 ATS over the last decade.  Teams playing on just six days of rest coming off an OT game on MNF are 17-21 SU & 15-23 ATS during this same time frame.

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Denver Broncos coming off a 41-10 blowout loss at Baltimore, which may be the best team in the league.  It was a bit of a misleading loss as the Broncos consistently marched into Baltimore territory but didn't get much out of it.  They were only outgained by 77 yards by the Ravens.

Keep in mind the Broncos had gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their previous six games prior to losing to Baltimore with their lone loss coming by 7 points to the Chargers, who were off a bye week and much healthier.  Four of their five wins during this stretch came by 14 points or more.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face a division rival in Kansas City, who they have played very tough in recent meetings.  The Broncos are 1-4 SU but 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with three of the four losses coming by 6 points or less.

Bo Nix is 4-1 ATS on the road this season.  Sean Payton is 81-59-3 ATS in road/neutral games as a head coach.  Payton is also 56-38-2 ATS as an underdog.  The Chiefs have been terrible as a favorite of -7 or more in the Mahomes era.  They just have a way of playing to the level of their competition, and they aren't going to be all that motivated this week as they are 'fat and happy' at 8-0 right now.  They also have a huge game against the Bills on deck next week that they could be looking ahead to.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3

The Chicago Bulls are in a great spot tonight.  They had yesterday off and there's a good chance they get Zach LaVine back from injury.  The Bulls will be highly motivated for a win off four consecutive losses.

I like their chances of getting a win tonight against a tired, banged up Atlanta Hawks team.  The Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 5th game in 7 days and their 9th game in 14 days.  Trae Young played 41 minutes last night in a 122-121 road loss at Detroit.  James Johnson played 37 and Dyson Daniels 38 minutes.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Bulls tonight.

The Bulls rank 1st in pace this season and will test Atlanta's tired legs.  The Hawks are once again a terrible defensive team this season ranking 25th in defensive rating.  The Bulls should be able to get what they want, and I think the Hawks will be affected most defensively with their fatigue.  Chicago is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Hawks OVER 237.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team again this season.  They rank 3rd in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  Teams that play fast and play no defense always trend to the OVER, and this is a pretty low total for a game involving the Hawks right now.

The OVER is 9-1 in all Atlanta games this season with 232 or more combined points in nine of their 10 games.  It should be more of the same tonight against the Chicago Bulls, who have seen a shift in philosophy this season to play faster and shoot more 3's.

The Bulls are taking it to the extreme ranking 1st in the NBA in pace this season, so these are two of the top three teams in pace.  The Bulls are just 20th in defensive rating.  There is a good chance they get Zach LaVine back from injury tonight, but I like this total either way.  Chicago went for 256 combined points with Minnesota without him last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* UCF/ASU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 55.5

The UCF Knights are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 28th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 24.2 seconds.  Gus Malzahn has always been known for his up-tempo offenses, and he has this UCF offense rolling now that he handed over coordinator duties and fired his defensive coordinator.

Amazingly, UCF has been through three different starting quarterbacks, but it looks like they should have been starting Dylan Rizk the entire time.  He came in at the end of the BYU game two weeks ago and completed 6-of-10 passes for 102 yards and a TD to close out that game.  Malzahn has been missing a QB that can actually throw the ball all season, and he finally has one in Rizk, who is also a dual-threat.

Rizk got his 1st start last week and completed 20-of-25 passes for 294 yards and 3 TD while also rushing for 55 yards on 9 carries in a 56-12 win over Arizona.  He led this high-powered UCF offense to 602 total yards against Arizona in the win.  This offense is much more versatile with Rizk who can actually complete a forward pass moving forward.

It's amazing the success this UCF offense has had without that being the case to this point.  They still rank 10th in total offense at 471.1 yards per game and 10th at 6.9 yards per play largely due to a rushing attack that ranks 2nd in the country at 272.3 yards per game.  Having the threat of a pass will actually open up the running game for electric RB BJ Harvey (1,201 yards, 16 TD, 7.0/carry) even more moving forward.

Arizona State has a better offense than it gets credit for this season averaging 417 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  The Sun Devils have great balance averaging over 200 yards per game both rushing and passing.  They average 31.1 points per game on the season.

The Sun Devils are coming off a 42-21 win at Oklahoma State and 63 combined points.  They racked up 529 total yards with QB Sam Leavitt making his return from injury.  Leavitt threw for 304 yards and 3 TD in the win.  They may need to rely on him more if RB Cam Skattebo can't go as he is questionable after suffering an injury last week.  But ASU being more pass-heavy would only benefit the OVER even more.

The OVER is 7-2 in all UCF games this season with 59 or more combined points in seven of their nine games.  The OVER is 4-3-1 in all Arizona State games this season with 52 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland +25

I always like fading the No. 1 team in the country in the initial college football playoff rankings.  Oregon has that distinction this week, and with that No. 1 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.  I think Oregon is inflated as a 25-point favorite over Maryland this week.

The Ducks are feeling 'fat and happy' now sitting at 9-0 and coming off a 21-point win over Michigan, covering as 14.5-point favorites only after a TD in the final seconds when they could have kneeled.  That wasn't normal for Dan Lanning who has been more than content with taking the air out of the ball in the 2H of games this season.

While we'll 'sell high' on the No. 1 ranked team in the country, we'll 'buy low' on the Terrapins at the same time.  They are coming off a bad 48-23 loss at Minnesota last time out.  You could see it coming because this was a tired Maryland team playing for an 8th consecutive week to start the season.

But now the Terrapins finally got their bye last week, and they will come back refreshed and motivated to give Oregon a run for its money this week.  Keep in mind this is a Maryland team that played Indiana as tough as anyone has this season on the road.  They only lost 42-28 to the Hoosiers, and that loss is aging very well considering the Hoosiers are blasting everyone else.

Now it's Oregon that is the tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week and coming off a physical game against Michigan.  This looks like their letdown spot, especially with an even bigger game on deck at Wisconsin next week.

Maryland is outgaining opponents by more than 50 yards per game this season.  The Terrapins only allow 105.2 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, ranking in the Top 20 in run defense in both categories.  They will be able to stop the run in this game in the 2H to get the ball back for underrated QB Billy Edwards.

Edwards is completing 68.4% of his passes for 2,314 yards with a 13-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He has two elite receivers to get the ball to in Felton and Prather, who have combined for 118 receptions for 1,394 yards and 9 TD on the season.  I expect the rejuvenated Terrapins to keep coming for four quarters and to stay within this inflated 25-point spread.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Jacksonville State -10

Jacksonville State is a juggernaut right now.  The Gamecocks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games while outscoring their opponents 234 to 85 in those five games.  They have covered the spread by a combined 87 points in those five games.

The Gamecocks have won each of their last five games by double-digits, and now I think they'll make it 6 in a row against an overmatched Louisiana Tech team Saturday.  Jacksonville State got a much-needed bye last week after playing four consecutive weeks.  They will come back rejuvenated and ready to chase down a C-USA title currently sitting tied for 1st with WKU at 4-0 within the conference but only one game ahead of Sam Houston State.

LA Tech is just 3-5 SU this season despite playing one of the softest schedules in the entire country.  In fact, the Bulldogs' schedule ranks 152nd in the country, which means there are about 20 FBS teams that have played a tougher schedule than they have.  That makes their 3-5 record that much worse.

Jacksonville State ranks 15th in the country in scoring offense at 38.6 points per game, 12th in total offense at 464.9 yards per game and 8th at 7.1 yards per play.  The Gamecocks just keep coming under Rich Rodriquez ranking 11th in tempo as well, so they get a lot of possessions.

LA Tech doesn't have the firepower on offense to keep up with the Gamecocks.  Offense is the Bulldogs' biggest weakness as they rank 112th in scoring at 21.2 points per game, 105th in total offense at 344.9 yards per game and 124th at 4.9 yards per play.  If they get behind, which they will, they don't have the capability to catch up.  Bet Jacksonville State Saturday.

20* Georgia/Ole Miss ABC No-Brainer on Ole Miss +3

The Ole Miss Rebels are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS this season with some of the best numbers in the country.  Numbers even better than Georgia, which makes me believe the wrong team is favored here catching 3 points at home with the Rebels.

Ole Miss ranks 2nd in the country in total offense at 554.0 yards per game and 2nd at 7.7 yards per play with the usual elite Lane Kiffin offense.  But it's the defense that makes this team different than in year's past. The Rebels only allow 317.8 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play, which ranks 5th in the country.  They are outgaining their opponents by 236 yards per game and a ridiculous 3.3 yards per play.

Let's just compare that to Georgia.  The Bulldogs averaged 431 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 295 yards per game and 4.7 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 136 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play, and while elite, that's about half as much as Ole miss is outgaining its opponents by this season.

Georgia QB Carson Beck gets too much respect and is having a terrible season.  He has a 10-to-11 TD/INT ratio in his last five games coming in.  The Bulldogs were lucky DJ Lagway got hurt in the 1H against Florida last week because the Gators had them on the ropes.  That game was tied 20-20 with under 5 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter to show just how vulnerable this Georgia team really is right now.

The Bulldogs are 7-1 SU but just 2-6 ATS and they have been overvalued for a few seasons now.  They will slip up this week, and Kiffin will finally get over the hump and beat an elite team because he finally has the horses to get it done.  Ole Miss is the better team this season and that will show on the field Saturday afternoon.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on San Jose State +3

The San Jose State Spartans sit at 5-3 on the season one win away from bowl eligibility.  They come off their bye week and off their worst loss of the season to Fresno State.  It was a misleading loss as the Spartans lost by 23 despite only getting outgained by 22 yards.

Now the Spartans come back as 3-point dogs this week at Oregon State when I believe they should be favored and will win this game outright.  Their other two losses came on the road by 7 at Colorado State and by 2 at Washington State, and those losses look even better now with Colorado State in line to make the MWC Championship Game, and Washington State sitting at 7-1 SU this season with their only loss to Boise State.

As much as I like this San Jose State team, this is as much of a fade of Oregon State as anything.  The Beavers are in limbo right now without a conference and it looks like they packed it in in their last game.  They lost 44-7 at California while giving up 478 yards to the Bears and only managing 200 total yards themselves.  They got outgained by 278 yards.  I think that's a sign of things to come for the Beavers the rest the way.

And while the Spartans are as healthy as pretty much anyone in the country right now coming out of their bye week, the Beavers have three players out and another eight questionable on their injury report.  They especially have a ton of injuries on defense which explains how they could give up 44 points and 478 yards to Cal.  This is a great SJSU run-and-shoot offense that will take advantage as well.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* Michigan/Indiana CBS ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -14

The books just can't set these Indiana spreads high enough, and they haven't set it high enough this week either.  When a team has a turnaround like Indiana has it takes the books and the betting public a long time to catch up.  The Hoosiers are legitimately one of the best teams in the country and nobody wants to believe it.

Indiana is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS this season and would be 9-0 ATS against the opening line as they failed to cover the closing line in Week 1.  Their games haven't even been close as all nine of their wins have come by 14 points or more.  They are covering the spread by an average of 17.2 points per game in their nine games this season.  There is nothing fluky about it when you dig into the numbers.

The Hoosiers rank 2nd in the country in scoring offense at 46.6 points per game, 8th in total offense at 476.2 yards per game and 5th at 7.1 yards per play.  They rank 7th in scoring defense at 13.7 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 261 yards per game and 3rd at 4.3 yards per play.  They are outscoring opponents by 33 points per game and outgaining them by 215 yards per game and 2.8 yards per play.

If you just changed the name of their team to Ohio State and gave them the same numbers, they would be favored by 24-plus points against Michigan.  But the Hoosiers remain undervalued this week.  QB Kurtis Roarke returned from injury last week and proved he is just fine in leading Indiana to a 47-10 beat down over Michigan State at home.  That's the same Michigan State team that took Michigan to the wire a few weeks ago.  Roarke threw 4 TD passes in the win.

Michigan had its 'all in' game last week against Oregon in a 38-17 defeat at home.  The Ducks held the Wolverines to just 11 first downs and 270 total yards, while rackng up 470 yards against what was supposed to be a good Michigan defense.  I think Indiana can dominate Michigan just as well as Oregon did, and they are laying 14 at home whereas Oregon was laying 14.5 on the road.

Offense has been the problem for Michigan all season.  They just don't have a QB who can throw an accurate forward pass, and their talent at receiver is embarrassing.  The Wolverines rank 116th in scoring at 21.0 points per game, 127th in total offense at 299.4 yards per game and 128th in passing at 134.3 yards per game.

Michigan relies heavily on running the football, and that makes this a terrible matchup for them.  The Hoosiers rank 1st in the country allowing just 72.6 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 2.5 yards per carry.  When the Wolverines fall behind, which they will, they have no way of catching up.  Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti has no problem running up the score, and he would love to make a statement here against the defending champs.  I also like the fact that Indiana has a bye on deck next week so will be 'all in' this week.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State -3

I was on NC State last week as 9.5-point favorites over Stanford.  They crushed the Cardinal 59-28 covering the spread by more than 20 points.  I'm back on NC State for many of the same reasons this week.

The Wolfpack are undervalued right now after starting the season just 1-7 ATS.  They played a brutal schedule having to play eight consecutive weeks to open the season.  They finally got a bye last week to regroup, and now they remain fresh and ready to go this week off that blowout win over Stanford.

It's also a motivated NC State team sitting at 5-4 and looking for that 6th win to get bowl eligible.  I saw 'buy' signs on this team in their final two games going into the bye, especially with freshman QB CJ Bailey.

Three games ago, the Wolfpack lost 24-17 at home to Syracuse.  But that was a hugely misleading final as the Wolfpack were -3 in turnovers, which was the difference in the game. Bailey played great, completing 17-of-24 passes for 329 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Bailey backed it up two weeks ago, completing 25-of-36 passes for 306 yards and 2 TD without an INT in a 24-23 comeback victory at California as 9-point dogs.  That was a very good Cal defense he shredded.  And last week Bailey threw for 234 yards and 3 TD in leading the Wolfpack to 59 points against Stanford in that blowout win.

While I think it's a great spot for NC State, I think it's a terrible spot for Duke.  The Blue Devils are coming off consecutive frustrating losses to SMU by 1 in OT two weeks ago and then 53-31 to Miami last week.  They were fortunate to even be competitive with SMU considering the Mustangs were -6 in turnovers and still managed to win.

But last week the Blue Devils had the unbeaten Hurricanes on the ropes actually leading that game 28-17 in the 3rd quarter.  That's when it all fell apart.  Miami outscored Duke 36-3 in the final 22 minutes and turned on the after burners to not only win by 22, but actually cover the 21-point spread.

That was a tough beat for Duke bettors, and it's a very tough spot for Duke now.  They have to try and get back up off the mat off those two frustrating losses that eliminated them from ACC title contention.  They sit at 6-3 and already bowl eligible, and I question how motivated they'll be the rest of the way now.  

This is the obvious flat spot for them, and I know they won't be nearly as motivated to beat NC State as they were to try and take down SMU and Miami the last two weeks.  I also question how much they'll have left in the tank playing for a 4th consecutive week with the last three games all going down to the wire.  This has Wolfpack blowout written all over it.  Bet NC State Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UConn/UAB OVER 56.5

The UAB Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team.  The main reason is a poor defense that ranks 125th in the country allowing 35.5 points per game.  They also rank 33rd in tempo playing much faster than average.  The OVER is 5-1 in UAB's last six games overall with 54 or more combined points in all six games, including 59 or more combined points in five of them.

This UAB offense has come to life since the switch to Jalen Kitna at quarterback.  He threw for 239 yards and a TD in a 71-20 loss to Tulane four games ago, 242 yards and a TD in a 44-10 loss at Army three games ago, 384 yards and 2 TD in a 35-25 loss to USF two games ago and 404 yards and 6 TD in a 59-21 win over Tulsa last week.

UConn isn't known for a high-powered offense, but the Huskies will have one of their best outputs of the season this week against UAB.  They played a Georgia State team with a similar profile with a decent offense and poor defense last week.  They won 34-27 for 61 combined points.  The Huskies also play faster than average ranking 47th in tempo, so there will be a lot of possessions in this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on St. John's -20.5

In Rick Pitino I trust.  He led the St. John's Red Storm to a 20-13 season in his first year on the job last season and they were snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.  So they have been motivated all offseason, and reinforcements are on the way.

One of the biggest pulls of the portal was bringing Kadary Richmond in from rival Seton Hall.  Utah transfer Deivon Smith (5 triple-doubles last year) and five-star freshman Simeon Wilcher will join Richmond in the backcourt.

RJ Luis (10.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) is the leading returning scorer and will lead them in the frontcourt.  North Texas transfer Aaron Scott is a great two-way player.  They have great size with 7-1 USC transfer Vince Iwuchukwu along with freshmen Khaman Maker (7-1) and Ruben Prey (6-10).

St. John's blasted Fordham 92-60 as 19.5-point favorites in their opener, covering the spread by 12.5 points.  They showed off their depth with nine players scoring at least 5 points.

Quinnipiac had a troubling 88-62 loss at Yale as 8-point underdogs in their opener, failing to cover the spread by 18 points.  I don't give them much of a shot of keeping this game competitive in what will likely be their toughest test of the season today.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston College -1.5

I love the spot for the Boston College Eagles this week.  They sit at 4-4 on the season and in desperate need of a win this week if they want to make a bowl game.  They are coming off three consecutive losses and they were a very tied team having to play eight consecutive weeks to start the season.

That's why the bye couldn't have come at a better time last week to allow the Eagles to rest, get healthy and refocus for the stretch run under first-year head coach Bill O'Brien.  Bye weeks are always more beneficial for first-year head coaches, and I expect O'Brien to get the most out of his team in these two weeks.

The Orange bounced back from a 41-13 loss at Pittsburgh with a 38-31 (OT) home win over Virginia Tech last week.  But that was a Virginia Tech team missing it's starting QB and it's starting RB, and the Orange still needed OT to put the Hokies away.  They had to use a lot of energy to come back from a 21-3 deficit in the 2H just to force OT, so I question how much they'll have left in the tank for BC this week.

I have not been impressed with Syracuse on the road this season despite their 2-1 SU record.  They had that 28-point loss at Pitt, and their 24-17 win at NC State was very misleading.  They benefited from being +3 in turnovers in that game.  Their 44-41 (OT) win at UNLV was also fortunate.

Syracuse QB Kyle McCord consistently puts the ball in danger with 12 interceptions thrown already this season.  Boston College has 11 interceptions on defense and is a ball-hawking unit, and I think turnovers in their favor will be the difference, plus the fact that they are the more rested, prepared team coming off a bye week.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Louisville CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -2

Louisville will likely be the most improved team in the country this season after going just 8-24 last season.  New head coach Pat Kelsey has injected life in the program and the athletics department relies on men's basketball revenue, so he had plenty of money to spend in the transfer portal.

Six upperclassmen transfers who averaged at least 9 points per game this season compromise Louisville's backcourt.  Kasean Pryor was the catalyst to USF's surprising season last year and now he's at Louisville.  James Scott follows Kelsey over from Charleston along with Reyne Smith and Kobe Rodgers.

The Cardinals blasted Morehead State 93-45 as 22-point favorites in their opener, covering the spread by 26 points.  They take on a Tennessee team that is down this season after losing four starters.  The lone returning starter is PG Zakai Zeigler, who isn't a great scorer.

Tennessee was unimpressive in its 80-64 win over Gardner-Webb as 27.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover the spread by 11.5 points.  Zeigler went 0-for-6 from 3-point range in the loss.  There's just too much on his shoulders here in the early going.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

20* New Mexico/San Diego State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 67.5

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Lobos are 7-2 OVER in all games this season with 64 or more combined points in seven of their nine games this season.  That includes 94, 95, 89 and 90 combined points in four of their last five games coming in.

Bronco Mendenhall has brought his up-tempo offense to New Mexico as the Lobos rank 30th in tempo.  They are 26th in scoring offense at 34.8 points per game, 7th in total offense at 480.1 yards per game and 18th at 6.8 yards per play.  They have great balance rushing for 231 yards per game and throwing for 249 yards per game.  QB Devon Dampier is a stud, throwing for 2,243 yards and 10 TD while also rushing for 13 scores.

But this New Mexico defense is a dumpster fire.  The Lobos rank 132nd in scoring defense allowing 40.8 points per game, 131st in total defense at 492.3 yards per game and 132nd at 7.1 yards per play.  They recently found themselves in shootouts with two of the worst offensive teams in the country, which shows how bad their defense really is. They beat Air Force 52-37 and lost to Wyoming 49-45.

Sean Lewis brought his flash-fast offense to San Diego State.  The Aztecs are indeed playing fast, ranking 16th in the country in tempo at 23.6 seconds in between snaps.  So there will be a ton of possessions in this game.  And while it has been an up-and-down season for this SDSU offense, they are in line for their best performance of the season just like previously dead Wyoming and AF offenses.

The OVER is 3-1 in San Diego State's last four games overall with the lone under going under by 1.5 points.  They are coming off a 56-24 loss to Boise State last Friday that saw 80 combined points.  This thing should sail OVER the number again tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat +3

The Denver Nuggets have taken a big step back this season with all they lost in the offseason, plus injuries.  The Nuggets are 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS this season with three of their wins coming in OT against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Raptors (twice) and Nets.  Another win came against the lowly Jazz.

Now the Nuggets are without two starters in Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, and they already were lacking a bench.  They managed to upset the Thunder 124-122 as 7-point home dogs without these two on Wednesday.  But that makes this a big letdown spot for them after handing the Thunder their first loss of the season.

Now they go from 7-point home dogs to 3-point home favorites over the Heat, and that's too big of an adjustment.  The Nuggets won't shoot nearly as well as they did against the Thunder without Murray and Gordon for a second consecutive game.

They face a Miami Heat team that will be highly motivated for a victory off two straight losses by a combined 4 points to the Suns and Kings, two of the better teams in the West.  They lost at the buzzer to the Kings and couldn't stop Kevin Durant late.  There's a good chance they get Jaime Jaquez back from an illness tonight and will be at full strength with the exception of Kevin Love.  They should not be underdogs to the Nuggets missing two of their three best players tonight.  Bet the Heat Friday.

15* Iowa/UCLA FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +5

For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point.  The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so important that they got a bye two weeks ago to recover.

UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon and Minnesota at home as well as LSU, Penn State, Rutgers and Nebraska on the road.  The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 5-1 ATS in their last six games.  They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye.

The Bruins came out of their bye refreshed last week and it showed, upsetting Nebraska 27-20 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that result as the Bruins outgained the Huskes 6.5 to 4.5 yards per play in the game.

A big reason I'm backing the Bruins again this week is because they match up well with Iowa.  The Hawkeyes need to be able to run the football to be successful, and the Bruins are one of the best defenses in the country at stopping the run, which is even more impressive when you consider their strength of schedule.  UCLA ranks 12th in the country allowing 100.4 rushing yards per game and 18th at 3.3 yards per carry.

Iowa made the switch to dual-threat Brendan Sullivan at quarterback finally two games ago in the 2H of their 40-14 win over Northwestern.  They stuck with him for their 42-10 home win over Wisconsin last week.  Those two results have the Hawkeyes overvalued now, and with a couple games of film on him, I expect the Bruins to come up with the proper game plan to slow the Hawkeyes down this week.

Iowa hasn't seen many QB's as good as Ethan Garbers of UCLA, and the weakness of this Iowa defense is their pass defense.  Iowa State, Michigan State and Ohio State all had success throwing the football on them.  Garbers is completing 65% of his passes for 1,703 yards with 10 touchdowns this season despite the brutal schedule.  He has a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games, wins over Rutgers and Nebraska.

Iowa hasn't had any success under Kirk Ferentz on the West Coast, and this is a tough travel spot for them on a short week.  Bet UCLA Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +7

I love the spot for the Washington Wizards tonight.  They are the freshest team in the NBA having only played six games thus far while the Memphis Grizzlies have already played nine games.  The Wizards come in on three days' rest having the last three days off to rest and prepare for Memphis.

Memphis has no business being a 7-point favorite in this game when you look at their injury report.  The Grizzlies are without three starters in JA Morant, Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane.  They are also without two key role players in Vince Williams and GG Jackson, and John Konchar is questionable.

The Grizzlies are a tired, short-handed team playing their 6th game in 10 days.  They are coming off a huge win over the Lakers, but Morant got hurt late in that game and will be out for this one.  That makes this a letdown spot for them as well.  Keep in mind the Grizzlies have already lost to the Nets twice this season, and they'll let the Wizards hang around for four quarters in this one.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State/Alabama OVER 169.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are the kings of pace and space.  They face another team in Arkansas State tonight that are trying to follow their blueprint with pace and space.  There's going to be a ton of possessions in this game as a result tonight.

Alabama is the No. 2ranked team in the country this season largely because they brought back senior PG Mark Spears (21.5 PPG last year).  They also brought back two more starters in Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (44% 3-pointers in conference) and Grant Nelson (11.9 PPG, 69% 2-pointers).  They added one of the best recruiting classes in the country and are loaded again.  They scored 110 points on UNC-Asheville in their opener.

Bryan Hodgson needed only one seasons to build the best offense in program history as the Red Wolves rannked 61st in offensive efficiency last season at KenPom.  They bring back four starters from that team, and they add in F Kobe Julien from conference rival Louisiana.  Taryn Dodd (12.8 PPG and Derrian Ford (10.4 PPG) form the best backcourt duo in the conference combining for 113 made 3-pointers last season.  They now have the depth to play at an even faster pace this season.

The Red Wolves won a 80-75 shootout with Akron in their opener.  They only shot six free throws and 9-of-30 (30%) from 3-point range as well.  They are due some positive shooting regression in this one, and they will be forced to try and keep pace with the Crimson Tide.  This is going to be a fun game tonight filled with offense.  I'm guessing Alabama tops 100 points again to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 169.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night Line Mistake on Santa Clara -5

Arizona State lost 103-47 to Duke in the exhibition season.  That was a sign of things to come for the Sun Devils, who are in rough shape this season.  That was also evident in their lackluster 55-48 home win over Idaho State as 18-point favorites.  That's an Idaho State team that lost four starters from last year and their leading returning scorer only averaged 7.7 points per game.

Arizona State went 14-18 last season, and Bobby Hurley is squarely on the hot season.  The Sun Devils lost four starters from that team including three double-digit scorers.  Clearly there's not much to like about the replacements with those results against Duke and Idaho State.

Herb Sendek is one of the more underrated coaches in the country.  He led the Broncos to a 20-13 season last year, reaching 20 wins four times in the past five years.  Three starters return in G Adama Alpha-Bal (14.4 PPG), F Johnny O'Neil (11.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and F Christoph Tilly (9.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG).  Several key reserves return including Knapper (6.1 PPG), Bryan (8.2 PPG), Tongue (4.7 PPG) and Ensminger (4.1 PPG).  Few teams start the season with as much chemistry as the Broncos.

Santa Clara opened with a 85-78 win as 2-point favorites over St. Louis.  That's a St. Louis team that was getting a lot of hype coming into the season after nabbing Indiana State Josh Schertz and two of his best players from that team in Robbie Avila and Isaiah Swope.  They also brought back Gibson Jimmerson (15.8 PPG), who will be the school's all-time leading scorer in a few games.  It was an impressive result, and now the Broncos take a big step down in class here against the awful ASU.  Bet Santa Clara Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +13

The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA thus far.  They are 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS not once really getting blown out.  They have upset wins over the Grizzlies (twice), the Bucks and they took the Nuggets to OT.

I love the spot for the Nets tonight as they come in on three days' rest after having the last three days off.  And while the Nets are pretty healthy right now, they take on a Boston Celtics team that is without two starters in Jalen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis.

The Celtics will be playing their 5th game in 8 days as well so they are the much more tired team.  They showed signs of wearing down last time out losing 118-112 at home to the Warriors as 7-point favorites.  They allowed the Warriors to score on every possession over the final four minutes.  They'll let the Nets hang around tonight.  Bet the Nets Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Pistons OVER 227.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team again this season.  They rank 3rd in pace and 26th in defensive rating.  Teams that play fast and play no defense always trend to the OVER, and this is a pretty low total for a game involving the Hawks right now.

The OVER is 8-1 in all Atlanta games this season with 232 or more combined points in eight of their nine games.  It should be more of the same tonight against the Detroit Pistons, who will have to go more small ball tonight without the services of C Jalen Duren, who is their most important defender.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings with 231 or more combined points in all seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Cincinnati -28.5

The No. 20 Cincinnati Bearcats are in the Top 25 this season to start the year and for good reason.  They brought back four starters from a team that finished 22-15 in the rugged Big 12 in their first season in the best college basketball conference in the country.

Three of their four returning starters averaged double-figures last season, plus they get back 7-footer Aziz Bandaogo (6.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG).  The Bearcats are off to an impressive start crushing Arkansas-Pine Bluff 109-54 as 37-point favorites.

Morehead State went 26-9 last season and made the NCAA Tournament.  But the Eagles lost their head coach in Preston Spradlin and lost four starters from that team.  First-year head coach Jonathan Mattox, a former team manager, has his hands full to say the least.

The Eagles lost five players that combined for 5,191 of the team's 7,000 minutes last season.  This is a complete rebuild, and that was obvious when they lost their opener 93-45 at Louisville as 22-point dogs.  It's going to take the books some time to catch up on just how bad this team really is.  Bet Cincinnati Friday.

20* Bengals/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on OVER 52

The Baltimore Ravens are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 8-1 OVER in all games this season with 45 or more combined points in all nine games, including 51 or more combined points in five consecutive games.

The Ravens have one of the best offenses in NFL history.  They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 31.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 445.9 yards per game and 1st at 7.3 yards per play.  To average 6.5 yards per play is elite in the NFL, and they are averaging way more than that despite being a run-heavy team averaging 5.9 per carry on 33 attempts per game.

Teams can continue to come back on the Ravens because the weakness of their team is their secondary.  They rank dead last (32nd) in the NFL against the pass, allowing 280.9 passing yards per game.  They are also 28th allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt.

Now they face a pass-heavy Cincinnati Bengals offense that ranks 7th in the NFL in passing yards per game.  Joe Burrow threw for 251 yards and 5 TD in leading the Bengals to a 41-24 win over the Raiders last week that saw 65 combined points.

Baltimore won 41-38 (OT) for 79 combined points in an absolute shootout against the Bengals in their first meeting this season.  The Ravens racked up 520 total yards on this soft Cincinnati defense and will have another big game in the rematch.  Burrow threw for 392 yards and 5 TD to go toe-for-toe with Lamar Jackson and company in that first meeting.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 51 or more combined points in all three.  It will be more of the same here.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +4

The Portland Trail Blazers are one of the more underrated teams in the NBA in the early going.  They are just 3-5 SU but 5-2-1 ATS including upsetting the Clippers and taking the Suns to the wire on the road.

This is now a great spot for the Blazers as they come in on two days' rest, while the Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They showed signs of wearing down last night in their 127-100 road loss to Houston.

While the Blazers are almost fully healthy, the Spurs remain without PG Tre Jones and they just lost PF Jeremy Sochan (15.4 PPG, 7.7 RPG) to a broken thumb.  SG Devin Vassell (19.5 PPG last year) has yet to make his season debut, so being short-handed makes this tough rest situation even worse.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

20* FAU/ECU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 57.5

This East Carolina offense has taken off in recent weeks to match the fast pace they play at.  The Pirates rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.

The OVER is 3-0 in ECU's last three games overall with a 55-24 loss to Charlotte for 79 combined points, a 45-28 loss to Army for 73 combined points and a 58-34 win over Temple for 90 combined points.  The switch to Kevin Houser at QB has made a big difference, and he just threw for 269 yards and 5 TD against Temple last time out.

The FAU Owls are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.  They lost 41-37 to North Texas for 78 combined points, lost 38-24 to UTSA for 62 combined points and lost 44-21 to USF for 65 combined points.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired, and both offenses should have their way in this one.  FAU is allowing 41 points per game and 498 yards per game in its last three games.  East Carolina is allowing 44.7 points per game and 454.7 yards per game in its last three games.

Florida Atlantic also prefers to play fast ranking 42nd in the country in tempo.  So this game will see a ton of possessions with ECU ranking 4th in tempo leading the way and controlling the pace playing at home.  The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's, no wind and only 14% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Florida -24

The Florida Gators have one of the best head coaches in the country in Todd Golden.  He led them to a 24-12 record in his second season last year and his team is absolutely loaded this season.  This is a fringe Top 25 team.

The Gators return G Walter Clayton Jr. (17.6 PPG last season), G Will Richard (11.4 PPG) and F/C Alex Condon (7.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG).  They add in FAU transfer Alijah Martin (13.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG), Washington State transfer Reucen Chinyelu (4.7 RPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG) and Chattanooga transfer Sam Alexis (10.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG).  They also have 7-foot-9 freshman C Oliveir Rioux, the tallest player in the country to bolster their interior defense.

The Gators managed to cover as 11.5-point favorites in a 98-83 win over South Florida despite shooting just 5-of-25 (20%) from 3-point range while the Bulls shot 13-of-27 (48%).  That was an impressive result when you consider how poorly they shot the ball from distance and how great the Bulls shot it.

Jacksonville went 16-17 last season including 5-11 in the Atlantic Sun.  They are expected to be one of the worst teams in the A-Sun again, and it's easy to see why.  They had to grind out a 78-65 win over Division II Trinity Baptist at home in their opener.

Last year in non-conference play, Jacksonville lost by 23 at Xavier, by 51 at Pitt, by 42 at UCF and by 43 at Purdue.  I expect the Gators to make easy work of the Dolphins in this one.  Bet Florida Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Montana State +18

Montana State won the Big Sky Tournament last season and made the NCAA Tournament.  The Bobcats are the class of the Big Sky again this season with all they return.  I think they will give Wisconsin a run for its money tonight.

Montana State returns three starters in Brian Goracke (13.5 PPG), Brandon Walker (13.1 PPG) and Tyler Patterson (8.2 PPG).  They also return their instant offense off the bench in Patrick McMahon (13.0 PPG), plus two other key reserves.

Wisconsin loses three starters from a team that went 22-14 last season.  The Badgers part ways with AJ Storr (16.8 PPG), Tyler Wahl (10.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Chucky Hepburn (9.2 PPG).  They only return two starters in Steven Crowl (11.2 PPG) and Max Klesmit (9.9 PPG), and there's just not a lot to like about what this team did in the offseason.

Wisconsin actually trailed Holy Cross at halftime before pulling away in the 2H for a 85-61 win as 24-point favorites.  That's a Holy Cross team that was expected to finish near the bottom of the Patriot League this season after finishing 10-23 last season and losing a pair of double-digit scorers from that team.  It's was a bad look for the Badgers, and they will be in for more of a fight than they bargained for tonight.  Bet Montana State Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -6

The Oklahoma City Thunder are an absolute wagon this season.  They are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming by a 0.5-point.  They covered the other six games by a combined 62 points.  Books just can't set their numbers high enough at this point.

Now they get to face a depleted, struggling Denver Nuggets team.  The Nuggets are 4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS this season with three of their wins coming in OT against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Raptors (twice) and Nets.  Their other win came against the lowly Jazz.

Now the Nuggets are without two starters in Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, and they already were lacking a bench.  They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive without those two tonight.

The Thunder beat the Nuggets 102-87 on the road in their first meeting this season on October 24th.  And that was when both Murray and Gordon were healthy, which isn't the case anymore.  Another blowout win in OKC's favor will be the result tonight.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +11

The Dallas Mavericks just can't be trusted as double-digit favorites in the Luka Doncic era.  They just have a way of playing to the level of their competition, and he is the catalyst for that bringing it against good teams, and taking nights off against bad ones.

But I don't think the Bulls are a bad team, and they certainly should not be catching double-digits tonight.  The Bulls have upset road wins over the Bucks and Grizzlies this season as well as an upset home win over the Magic.  But they are coming off a home loss to the Jazz that has them undervalued, and we'll 'buy low' on them now.

The Mavericks have already been upset at home twice this season losing outright to the Pacers as 4.5-point favorites and outright to the Rockets as 6.5-point favorites.  They also only beat the Jazz by 8 as 12-point favorites.

The Bulls are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Mavericks OVER 234.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team this season embracing playing fast and shooting more 3-pointers than they had previously under Billy Donovan.  In fact, the Bulls rank 1st in the NBA in pace this season.

The Bulls are 5-2 OVER this season with 232 or more combined points in five of their seven games this season.  They are coming off a 261-point effort against the Jazz last time out in regulation.

The Mavericks played a similar team in the Pacers last time out and combined for 261 points with them.  This game will play out similarly, and the books haven't set this total high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are in awful shape right now with injuries piling up.  They are without four key contributors including three starters in CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Trent Murphy.  They are also without Herbert Jones, and another starter in Zion Williamson is questionable with a hamstring injury.  Another key contributor in Jordan Hawkins is questionable with a back injury.

The Pelicans are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their last two games were very concerning as they lost 126-111 at home to a short-handed Atlanta Hawks team and 118-100 at home to a bad Portland Trail Blazers team.

I give the Pelicans little chance of keeping this game competitive as they take a big step up in class here against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Cavs have proven to be one of the best teams in the NBA this season, going 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS with several blowout wins along the way.  They hired Kenny Atkinson in the offseason, and he is getting the most out of what is one of the most talented, experienced rosters in the NBA.

Cleveland is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in its last five meetings with New Orleans.  That includes wins by 21 and 11 points in their last two trips to New Orleans.  It should be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers -6.5

This is a fade of the Orlando Magic, who are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their four games since losing their best player in Paulo Banchero.  They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 32 points in the four games since he went down.  They are also without starting C Wendell Carter Jr right now.

This is a tired, short-handed Magic team playing their 8th game in 14 days.  Now they must travel to Indiana to face a Pacers team that will push the pace and test those tired legs.

It's also a Pacers team that will be out for revenge from a 119-115 road loss at Orlando on October 28th in their first meeting this season.  Banchero scored a career-high 50 points in that game! Carter had 11 points and 10 rebounds as well.  They will be sorely missed, and I give the Magic little to no chance of keeping this game competitive without them.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Notre Dame -27

Notre Dame head coach Micah Shrewsberry was able to keep his top four scorers and five of his top six scorers from last season in an age where it's hard to keep players around.  So I like the chemistry the Fighting Irish will have from the jump this season.

They were one of the youngest teams in the country last season, but now they are going to be one of the most experienced.  They hang their hats on defense and defense as well as almost anyone in the country, and Markus Burton (17.5 PPG last year) is one of the best players in the country already entering his sophomore season.

Stonehill is expected to be one of the worst teams in the Northeast Conference this season.  The Skyhawks lose their top three scorers and four of five starters from last season's team that went just 4-27.  They can't be any worse, but they won't be much better, either.  I don't think they are capable of staying within 30 points of the Fighting Irish in their opener.  Bet Notre Dame Wednesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NIU/Western Michigan OVER 51.5

Western Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Broncos are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 56 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  It will be more of the same tonight as they host Northern Illinois.

Western Michigan has one of the best offenses in the MAC ranking 28th in the country in scoring offense at 34.0 points per game and 24th at 6.6 yards per play.  But the Broncos also have one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 117th in scoring defense at 33.8 points per game, 119th at 429.6 yards per game and 119th at 6.3 yards per play.

Northern Illinois has a very good, balanced offense that is averaging 397.1 yards per game this season.  The Huskies are in line for their best offensive output of the season tonight against this suspect WMU defense.  

I expect the Broncos to keep pace behind arguably the best QB in the MAC in Hayden Wolff, who completes 69% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  RB Nixon (7.2 YPC, 10 TD) is also tough to tame.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech -28.5

Texas Tech is loaded this season off a 23-11 campaign last year.  I love head coach Grant McCasland, who has won everywhere he has been.  He turned a Texas Tech team that went 16-16 and 5-13 in the Big 12 in the previous season to 23-11 and 11-7 in the Big 12 in his first year.

Four key contributors return including three of the best 3-point shooters in the Big 12.  "I think we have three of the best 3-point shooters returning in the country," McCasland said. "They are all guys who impact the game offensively and are tremendous."

Texas Tech added two impact guards in the transfer portal with Minnesota transfer Elijah Hawkins (6.4 APG career) and Drake transfer Kevin Overton (11.3 PPG last year).  F Devan Cambridge (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) returns after his season was cut short after just eight games last year.  But the biggest offseason acquisition was Mountain West Freshman of theYear JT Toppin from New Mexico.  They also added Pitt transfer Federiko Federiko who is an instant impact defender down low.

Bethune-Cookman went 17-17 last season out of the SWAC.  Head coach Reggie Theus is just 38-58 in three years here.  The Wildcats lost three starters from last year including their top two scorers in Dhashon Dyson (14.0 PPG) and Jakobi Heady (15.4 PPG).  They bring back just two starters in Reggie Ward Jr. (9.6 PPG) and Seneca Willoughby (3.5 PPG), and they don't bring back anyone off the bench who made significant contributions.  This looks like a very tough year ahead for Theus and the Wildcats, starting with their opener against the Red Raiders.  Bet Texas Tech Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Portland Trail Blazers +2.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are one of the more underrated teams in the NBA in the early going.  They are just 2-5 SU but 4-2-1 ATS including upsetting the Clippers and taking the Suns to the wire on the road.  They have already played the Pelicans twice and outscored them 230-206 in the two meetings.  It will be more of the same in the 3rd meeting tonight.

The Pelicans are in even worse shape now than they were in those first two meetings.  The injuries are really piling up for this team.  They are without four key contributors including three starters in CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Trent Murphy.  They are also without Herbert Jones, and another starter in Zion Williamson is questionable with a hamstring injury.

We saw what the Pelicans were without all these guys last night when they lost 126-111 as 1-point home dogs to the short-handed Atlanta Hawks, who are almost as banged up as they are currently.  The Pelicans will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, so they will have nothing left in the tank for Portland tonight.  Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +10

The Charlotte Hornets are at least an average NBA team when they are healthy, and that is pretty much the case right now.  They just got Brandon Miller back from injury, and as long as they have LaMelo Ball healthy they are at least an average team.

Ball is showing what he is capable of when healthy averaging 30.2 points per game, 6.3 assists per game and 5.0 rebounds per game.  He is shooting 47.4% from the floor and 40.5% from 3-point range on 74 attempts.  He is one of the most underrated superstars in the league because he plays in Charlotte.

I just haven't been impressed with the Timberwolves this season as they clearly miss Karl-Anthony Towns.  They are 3-3 SU but 1-5 ATS with their lone cover coming by a single point in a 117-115 win at Sacramento as 1-point favorites, which was a Kings team on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat Toronto by 11 as 14.5-point home favorites and Denver by 3 as 3.5-point home favorites.  They also lost by 10 at San Antonio as 4-point favorites, lost by 6 at home to the Mavericks as 4-point favorites and lost by 7 at the Lakers as 1-point dogs.

As you can see, the Timberwolves haven't blown anyone out yet, and asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Rockets OVER 217.5

This is a very low total for an NBA game this season.  It's only low because both teams are playing slow compared to the rest, but I trust both do be efficient offensively tonight.  The Rockets want to play fast and should pick up the pace moving forward.

The Knicks have gone for 128, 116 and 123 points in three of their last four games.  We've seen at least 216 combined points in all five games involving the Knicks this season, including 221 or more four times.  They are an elite offensive team this season with the additions of Towns and Bridges.

The Rockets are loaded offensively this season as well.  They are coming off a 127-121 (OT) loss to the Warriors in a game that was tied 119-119 at the end of regulation for 238 combined points.  I think that's a sign of things to come for the Rockets.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Bulls OVER 228

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team this season embracing playing fast and shooting more 3-pointers than they had previously under Billy Donovan.  In fact, the Bulls rank 1st in the NBA in pace this season.

Now the Bulls play another team that likes to play fast and plays no defense in the Utah Jazz.  The Jazz rank 7th in pace this season and 22nd in defensive rating.  The Jazz are allowing 118.5 points per game this season.  The Bulls are allowing 116.8 points per game.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 236, 243 and 244 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Opening Night BLOWOUT on Florida -10

The Florida Gators have one of the best head coaches in the country in Todd Golden.  He led them to a 24-12 record in his second season last year and his team is absolutely loaded this season.  This is a fringe Top 25 team.

The Gators return G Walter Clayton Jr. (17.6 PPG last season), G Will Richard (11.4 PPG) and F/C Alex Condon (7.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG).  They add in FAU transfer Alijah Martin (13.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG), Washington State transfer Reucen Chinyelu (4.7 RPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG) and Chattanooga transfer Sam Alexis (10.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG).  They also have 7-foot-9 freshman C Oliveir Rioux, the tallest player in the country to bolster their interior defense.

But as much as I like the Florida Gators this season, this is more of a fade of South Florida than anything.  Their program is in turmoil not only because they lose their top three scorers to the transfer portal from a team that surprisingly went 25-8 last season, but they also lost their star head coach in Amir Abdur-Rahim from complications due to an illness just a couple weeks ago.  I question how much these players even want to play this season without him.

The Bulls lost Chris Younglood (15.3 PPG, 41.6% 3-pointers), Selton Miguel (14.7 PPG, 39% 3-pointers) and Kasean Pryor (13.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG) who were the three biggest reasons for their success last year.  The lone returning starters are Kobe Knox (8.4 PPG) and Brendon Stroud (5.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG).  I think it's going to start very badly for USF this season with a blowout loss to the Gators.  Bet Florida Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat PK

The Miami Heat are loaded this season and fully healthy right now.  They get two sharp shooters in Kevin Love and Duncan Robinson back from injury tonight, and they should be at full strength for basically the first time all season.

I'm just not a big fan of this Sacramento Kings team because they don't play defense, while the Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  The Kings are coming off a 131-128 loss as 9.5-point favorites at Toronto, which is a short-handed Raptors team.  Their only three wins this season came against the depleted Hawks, the depleted Jazz and the Blazers, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Heat are 3-2 this season with their only losses coming to the Magic in their opener back when Orlando was healthy and the Knicks, who are one of the best teams in the East.  The Heat have handled the teams they are supposed to, and they are extremely fresh playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and just their 5th game in 12 days.  

The Heat are 3-0 SU in their last three meetings with the Kings.  Bet the Heat Monday.

15* CBB Opening Night Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Indiana State UNDER 153

Both FAU and Indiana State were decimated by the transfer portal and graduation this offseason.  They both also have new head coaches, and I expect both to really struggle offensively in the season opener as a result.

After leading FAU to 60 wins the past two seasons, head coach Dustin May is off to Michigan.  Baylor assistant John Jakus is tasked with rebuilding a team that only returns one player from last year's team in Tre Carroll (4.0 PPG).  Gone are Johnell Davis (18.2 PPG), Vladislav Goldin (15.7 PPG), Alijah Martin (13.1 PPG), Nick Boyd (9.3 PPG) and Brandon Weatherspoon (7.2 PPG).

Indiana State went 32-7 last season riding an offense that was one of the best in the country.  But head coach Josh Schertz parlayed that success into a new gig at St. Louis.  Gone are all five starters that led to his success in Avila (17.4 PPG), Conwell (16.6 PPG), Swope (15.9 PPG), Kent (13.5 PPG) and Larry (11.0 PPG).  Top assistant Matthew Graves inherits a roster that returns just three scholarship players who combined for a grand total of 92 points last season.

Both teams will be lost offensively in the season opener, so look for points to be very hard to come by tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Colts/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 46.5

The Indianapolis Colts announced they were going to start Joe Flacco for the foreseeable future this week. The Colts are a dead nuts OVER team with Flacco at quarterback, so I'm happy to get this OVER 46.5 under the key numbers of 47 and 48 this week.

We saw the Cleveland Browns take off on offense with Flacco under center last season turning them into a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch.  He has done the same in his few starts with the Colts this season.  Flacco just makes better use of all their weapons, and the Colts have some of the more underrated weapons in the NFL.  Jonathan Taylor is back healthy, and the trio of Pittman, Downs and Pierce at receiver showcase their talents at lot more with Flacco.

The Colts found themselves in a shootout with the Steelers in a 27-24 win for 51 combined points with Flacco at QB earlier this season.  They found themselves in another 37-34 shootout with the Jaguars and 71 combined points with Flacco under center the next week.  Anthony Richardson is the most inaccurate QB in the NFL, and their offense has been lacking with him under center the last couple weeks.  Him taking himself out of the game because he was tired last week was the final straw.

The Vikings have been a dead nuts OVER team in recent weeks.  They have gone for 50 or more combined points in three of their last four games.  Sam Darnold is proving what he can do when he finally has some weapons, and the Vikings have some of the best weapons in the entire NFL.  They have been rolling on offense this season with Jordan Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones making a ton of plays.  And now even more reinforcements are on the way.

The Vikings traded for LT Cam Robinson of the Jaguars this week to make up for the loss of LT Christian Darrisaw, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week.  Robinson is one of the best left tackles in the game.  TE TJ Hockenson is expected to make his season debut this week as well.  Hockenson was a monster last season with 95 receptions for 960 yards and 5 TD.  This offense is going to be pretty unstoppable moving forward.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  The Vikings started the season great defensively, but opposing offenses are starting to figure them out.  They have allowed 29 or more points in three of their last four games.  The Colts rank 28th in total defense allowing 380 yards per game this season.  They have faced one of the weakest schedules of opposing offenses to boot.  This Minnesota offense will be the best offense they have faced since allowing 29 points and 417 yards to a fully healthy Texans offense back in Week 1.

It looks like there will be some weather in the NFL this week as we enter the month of November.  But that's not going to affect this game considering it is being played indoors at US Bank Stadium in Minnesota.  This game has shootout written all over it Sunday night.  Bet the OVER in this game.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on Los Angeles -1

I was big on the Rams in their last game as my 25* TNF GAME OF THE YEAR as +3.5 underdogs in a 30-20 upset home win over the Minnesota Vikings.  I'm back on them again for many of the same reasons.

They got both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back from injury last week, and their offense was fully healthy for basically the first time since Week 1.  They put up 386 total yards against the Vikings and held them to just 276 with an underrated defense.  I know Nacua tweaked his knee in practice this week since I released this play, but he is still expected to give it a go.

As much as I am 'buying' on the Rams right now, I'm 'selling' on the Seahawks just as much.  Since opening 3-0 against the softest schedule in the NFL up to that point, the Seahawks have since gone just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

The Seahawks lost by 13 at Detroit as 4-point dogs, by 9 at home to the Giants as 7-point favorites, by 12 at home to the 49ers as 3.5-point dogs and then by 21 at home last week to the Bills as 3-point dogs.  So they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three home games, and not even the 12th man can make up for all the injuries they are dealing with right now.

The Seahawks have allowed 29 or more points in four of their last five games.  They are banged up on defense and just not that talented on this side of the ball if I'm being honest.  They are also banged up on the offensive line as Geno Smith almost has no time to throw, and now he is without his best weapon in DK Metcalf, who has been ruled out again this week.

The Seahawks managed just 233 total yards against the Bills last week in their first game without Metcalf.  Buffalo also put up 445 total yards on this Seattle defense, doing pretty much whatever they wanted to despite the fact that the Seahawks got some guys back from injury.  There's just not a lot to like about this Seattle team on either side of the football.

The Rams are surging and back in the NFC West title hunt off two consecutive victories.  They are basically as healthy as they have been all season, and now they have extra time to rest and prepare after playing on Thursday last week.  The Seahawks are a tired, beat up team playing for a 9th consecutive week while the Rams already had their bye week.  Finally, Matthew Stafford has never lost to the Seahawks as a starting QB for the Rams.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Lions/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +3.5

I took the Green Bay Packers +3.5 before it was announced that Jordan Love was likely to play.  I liked them at this number with or without Love, so it has just been a bonus that he is expected to play since.  I fully expect the Packers to win this game outright as I believe they should be favored.

Amazingly, Jared Goff has been able to play his first seven games of the season all indoors.  Well, this will be his first outdoor game of the season, and while Goff is 39-16 ATS indoors, he is just 34-34-1 ATS outdoors.  Plus, the forecast is calling for a 95% chance of rain and 15-20 MPH winds at Lambeau Field.  Goff has small hands which is why he struggles so much in the elements.

The Lions are grossly overvalued now after starting 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season.  They are coming off a misleading 52-14 home win over the Titans last week.  They had over 300 return yards and basically had three special teams touchdowns.  They only managed 225 total yards against the Titans and allowed 416, getting outgained by nearly 200 yards.

While Detroit has an elite offense, the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Lions are really beat up on the defensive line missing three starters including Aidan Hutchinson, who has 7 sacks, 1 FF and 17 QB hurries this season.  This is the game his loss is finally felt.  They are also going to be without LB Malcolm Rodriquez.

The Packers have the offense that can take advantage of these injuries.  They rank 6th in scoring at 27.0 points per game, 5th in total offense at 388.0 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are 5th in rushing at 156.9 yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  They have more balance this season than they have had in a long time, and keep in mind they have played 2.5 games without Love.

Favorites of 3.5 or more points off a win by 35-plus points are 8-28 ATS in their last 36 tries.  Matt LaFleur is 28-16 ATS at home, including 6-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Eagles -7

The Philadelphia Eagles got a much-needed bye in Week 5 to get healthy.  They got both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith back out of their bye, and they haven't looked back since.  Nobody is playing better than the Eagles since Week 6.

The Eagles are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They came out of their bye with a 20-16 home win over the Browns, but this was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Browns got a 50-yard blocked FG return TD right before half that turned a 13-3 game into a 10-10 game.  Philadelphia outgained Cleveland 372 to 244, or by 128 total yards.

The Eagles came back with a dominant 28-3 road win over the New York Giants two weeks ago.  They outgained the Giants 339 to 119, or by 220 total yards.  And last week's 37-17 win at Cincinnati might have been the most impressive of the bunch.  They outgained the Bengals 397 to 270, or by 137 total yards.  Holding Joe Burrow down like that is no fluke.

The offense features arguably the best playmakers in the entire NFL in QB Hurts, RB Barkley, WR Brown and WR Smith.  But the improvement from the defense under first-year coordinator Vic Fangio is why I'm so high on this team.  The Eagles are allowing just 211 yards per game in their last three games.

While the Eagles remain fresh after having a bye already, the Jaguars have to be one of the most tired teams in the NFL.  They will be playing for a 9th consecutive week, which includes two games over in London.  They returned home last week and gave a valiant effort in a 30-27 home loss to the Green Bay Packers.  But it came at a much bigger cost than just one loss.

The Jaguars were decimated by injuries in that loss to the Packers.  They lost WR Christian Kirk to a season-ending injury.  Fellow starting WR's Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis were both knocked out of that game and questionable to play this week.  They lost starting LG Ezra Cleveland to injury and he is out this week.  And RG Brandon Scherff was knocked out and questionable to play this week.

So the Jaguars aren't going to have much success against this surging Philadelphia defense with all these offensive injuries.  And the Eagles should get whatever they want on offense against a very suspect Jacksonville defense.  The Jaguars rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.0 points per game, 29th in total defense at 382.1 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play.

The Jaguars are 0-4 in road games this season including a 47-10 blowout loss at Buffalo.  They also lost by 19 to Chicago over in London.  I don't love laying big numbers in the NFL, but getting the Eagles as 7-point favorites here is a discount given all the factors in their favor.  I expect them to win this game by double-digits.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Browns OVER 42

The Los Angeles Chargers are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They have their full compliment of weapons available on offense for basically the first time all season as both WR Quentin Johnson and TE Hayden Hurst are expected to return this week.  There's a chance they get WR DJ Chark back as well.

This Chargers offense is trending in the right direction going to a more pass-heavy scheme the last few weeks.  They managed 395 total yards on the Cardinals two weeks ago behind 349 passing yards from Justin Herbert.  They put up another 378 total yards on the Saints last week and 279 passing from Herbert.

I expect the Chargers to have plenty of success on offense against the Cleveland Browns, who are becoming decimated by injuries at linebacker.  They were already without starting MLB Jordan Hicks, and now they are going to be without WLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (61 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 FF, 1 INT), who suffered a neck injury against the Ravens last week.  He's their most important defender outside of Myles Garrett.  Top CB Denzel Ward suffered a concussion last week and is questionable.

Jameis Winston finally got a chance to start last week and rejuvenated this Cleveland offense.  The Browns topped 20 points for the first time all season, putting up 29 points and 401 total yards against Baltimore.  Winston went 27-of-41 passing for 334 yards with 3 touchdowns without an interception.

Of course, a big reason for his success was the fact that the Browns finally had all five starters healthy on the offensive line, and they were fully healthy on offense for the first time all season.  Winston is a great 'OVER' QB because he stretches the field and takes chances that most quarterbacks wouldn't.  That also makes him prone to interceptions, which also benefits the OVER and will set up the Chargers with some short fields.

The Chargers have great defensive numbers this season, which is a big reason this total is as low as it is.  But their schedule of opposing offenses has been pretty laughable.  They have played the Panthers, Raiders, Broncos, Saints, Cardinals, Chiefs and Steelers.  Many of those offenses were limited by injuries at QB and at the skill positions at the time they played them.

I think this will be the toughest test of the season for this Chargers defense now playing a fully healthy, more potent Cleveland offense this week.  Injuries are a problem for the Chargers as well with LB Joey Bosa and LB Denzel Perryman questionable, with CB's Kristian Fullton and Deane Leonard out.  

I like the fact that both offenses are going much more pass-heavy, which stops the clock on incompletions and creates more scoring chances at the same time.  This total of 42 is simply too low given the current state of both teams.  We are getting the over at a discount, especially with the forecast calling for temps in the 60's, no rain and almost no wind in Cleveland Sunday afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Suns OVER 224

The Phoenix Suns are playing faster and shooting more 3's this season under Mike Budenholzer.  They are starting to gel and have some of the best talent in the entire NBA to run his system.

The Suns are coming off a 125-119 road win over the Los Angeles Clippers for 244 combined points.  The Blazers are coming off a 137-114 home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder and 251 combined points.  This total of 224 is too low for this matchup tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -3

Baylor is exactly the type of team I like to back at this point of the season.  They are much better than their 4-4 record would indicate, and they are showing a lot of fight right now trying to make a bowl game late in the season.

Baylor has legit road losses to Utah and Iowa State, but the Bears really should be 6-2 this season.  Colorado needed a hail mary to force OT to beat them in Boulder, and the other loss came by 6 at home to BYU, which is currently undefeated.  Nobody has played BYU tougher than Baylor did.  They actually outgained the Cougars 387 to 367 for the game.

Sitting at 2-4 on the season after the loss to Iowa State, the Bears could have packed it in going into their bye week.  Instead, they have responded with two of their best performances of the season.  They crushed Texas Tech 59-35 on the road behind 629 total yards of offense two weeks ago.  Last week they beat Oklahoma State 38-28 at home behind another 565 total yards.

TCU is 5-3 this season it has come against a much softer schedule than Baylor has played.  The five wins have come against Stanford, FCS Long Island, Kansas, Utah without Cam Rising and Texas Tech.  They also lost outright to Houston as 16-point favorites, their home loss to UCF looks even worse now, and they lost by 24 to the best team they have faced thus far in SMU.

TCU needed a 17-point comeback in the 2nd half to beat Texas Tech by 1 last week.  This came after the Red Raiders lost their starting QB to injury as well.  And that give these teams a recent common opponent.  Baylor just blasted Texas Tech by 24 two weeks ago.  No question the Bears are the team playing the better football right now.

There is a good chance of wind and rain in this one, and Baylor is by far the superior rushing team with much better balance on offense than TCU.  The Horned Frogs only average 102 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, and Baylor only allows 3.7 yards per carry on defense.  Baylor averages 176 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry on offense, while TCU allows 166 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry on defense.

Finally, Baylor wants revenge from four consecutive losses to TCU in this head-to-head series, including a couple heartbreakers.  I think they have the better team this season and will finally get it done, plus they are at home here where they have played their best football this season.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Navy -11

The Navy Midshipmen have been an absolute wagon this season going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS.  But they just lost to Notre Dame last week 51-14 for their first defeat of the season.  That misleading final score has the betting public off their scent, and now is the time to 'buy low' on the Midshipmen off that embarrassing loss.

Navy isn't eliminated from the 12-team playoff yet, and a big finish could get them in.  They still have chances to impress coming up including games against two very good teams in Tulane and Army.  But it starts with a rebound this week against a terrible Rice team.

The reason that loss to Notre Dame was misleading was because Navy uncharacteristically committed six turnovers that set up a bunch of easy points for the Fighting Irish.  Ball security will be at the forefront of their game plan for Rice, and I expect them to execute flawlessly this week.

Rice is 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS this season and just fired its head coach in Mike Bloomgren, who had taken them to a bowl the last two years.  I think this is a program in turmoil now and I don't think they should have fired him.  There's just not a lot to like about this Rice team.

Rice doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Navy in this one.  The Owls were held to 10 points each of the last two weeks, and their lone touchdown last week against Connecticut came on a kickoff return.  They rank 109th in scoring offense at 21.6 points per game and 114th in total offense at 329.6 yards per game.

Navy ranks 10th in scoring offense at 40.4 points per game.  Rice faced a similar Army team earlier this season and got blasted 37-14.  They allowed 288 rushing yards to the Black Knights.  Navy will have similar success and win this one going away.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +11

The Charlotte Hornets will be the more motivated team tonight out for revenge from a 124-109 home loss to the Boston Celtics as 10.5-point underdogs last night.  Now the Hornets come back as even higher 11-point dogs in the rematch, and this number is too high given the motivational edge for Charlotte in this quick revenge spot.

Boston's starters will be more taxed than Charlotte's for this rematch.  Tatum, Brown and White all played at least 35 minutes for the Celtics last night.  Nobody played more than 31 minutes for the Hornets.  Plus, there's a chance Brandon Miller returns from injury tonight being listed as day-to-day after sitting last night.

This will only be the 3rd game in 7 days for the Hornets, while it will be the 7th game in 12 days for the Celtics.  The spot really favors the double-digit home underdog tonight.  Bet the Hornets Saturday.

20* Florida/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Florida +17

Everyone threw Billy Napier under the bus after losing to Miami in the opener.  It turns out Miami is one of the best teams in all of college football still unbeaten on the season.  The Gators have been undervalued since, especially in recent weeks, and I like what I've seen from this team in their last few games.  I think they can hang with Georgia in 'The World's Largest Cocktail Party' Saturday as a result.

Florida is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games.  It started with a 45-28 win at Mississippi State in which the Gators racked up 503 total yards.  They came back from their bye week and topped UCF 24-13 as 1-point home dogs.  They held a high-powered UCF offense to just 273 total yards.  They lost 23-17 (OT) as 14-point dogs at Tennessee and deserved to win that game.  They outgained the Vols 361 to 312 for the game, again shutting down another high-powered offense defensively.

The Gators were impressive last time out not letting that loss to Tennessee beat them twice.  They responded with their most complete performance of the season, crushing Kentucky 48-20 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining them 476 to 309 for the game.

Freshman sensation DJ Lagway took over at QB for good against Kentucky and threw for 259 yards on only 14 attempts, while also rushing for 46 yards on 10 carries.  He gives them a dual-threat option that Georgia will have to prepare for.  The Bulldogs did not handle their games against other dual-threat QB's well this season, losing outright to Alabama and failing to cover against Auburn.

I think this line is inflated because Georgia won outright 30-15 at Texas in their last game to hand the Longhorns their lone loss this season.  They were 'fat and happy' going into their bye week after making that statement.  But keep in mind Georgia was 0-5 ATS in its previous five games consistently overvalued week after week.  And the Bulldogs are back to being overvalued this week as 17-point favorites against a feisty Gators team.  Bet Florida Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina ML -130

The UNC Tar Heels received a much-needed bye two weeks ago.  They entered on a four-game losing streak with several close losses to Georgia Tech, Pitt and Duke.  They could have easily packed it in, instead they responded with their best performance of the season coming out of their bye, and I like the outlook of this team moving forward.

North Carolina crushed Virginia 41-14 as 3.5-point road underdogs last week.  They racked up 428 total yards and held the Cavaliers to just 288 total yards, outgaining them by 140 yards.  I think this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Tar Heels, who are 4-4 SU and 1-6-1 ATS through eight games this season.

The Florida State Seminoles are in the midst of a lost season sitting at 1-7 SU and their lone win was a fluky one against California in which they were outgained 404 to 284 for the game.  The market just cannot adjust for how poor this team is this season going from undefeated last year to now 1-7 this year.  I question how much they care about finishing this season strong.

I think Florida State's 'all in' effort came last week against rival Miami and they came up short, losing 36-14 only after scoring a meaningless TD in garbage time in the final seconds.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat UNC as they were to beat Miami.  If anything, they'll be looking ahead to their matchup with another playoff contender in Notre Dame next week.  That makes this a huge sandwich spot for them.

Florida State's offense is abysmal as they have tried three different quarterbacks and all have struggled.  Uiagelelei completed just 53.8% of his passes, Glenn 45.1% and Kromenhoek 42.9%.  There's just no answer on their roster.  The Seminoles rank 133rd in scoring at 14.9 points per game, 131st in total offense at 272.5 yards per game and 129th at 4.5 yards per play.

UNC has another great QB in Jacolby Criswell, who has a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio since taking over and is getting better with each passing game.  Omarion Hampton has already rushed for 1,006 yards and 5.6 per carry this season and is one of the best backs in the country.  UNC has far and away the superior offense, ranking 30th in scoring at 33.9 points per game and 28th in total offense at 442.4 yards per game.  

FSU only has a slight edge defensively, but it's not enough to overcome the huge advantage the Tar Heels have on offense.  I think the Tar Heels are in the much better frame of mind fighting for a bowl, are the healthier, more rested and more motivated team, and they should be bigger favorites this weekend as a result.  Bet North Carolina on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +7

For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point.  The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so importanta that they got a bye last week to recover.  Now rested and ready to go, I expect a big effort from the Bruins this week at Nebraska.

UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon and Minnesota at home as well as LSU, Penn State and Rutgers on the road.  The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye.

I think the spot is terrible for Nebraska.  After losing 56-7 at Indiana two weeks ago, Nebraska showed some great fight last week in nearly upsetting Ohio State in a 21-17 defeat as 25-point road dogs.  I think that effort has them overvalued, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  Their chances of winning the Big Ten are now crushed with three conference losses, and I just don't see them being nearly as motivated to face UCLA as they were to face Ohio State.

Nebraska lost 31-24 (OT) at home to Illinois as 9.5-point favorites and only beat Rutgers 14-7 as 7-point favorites in their last two home games.  It's not as big of a home-field advantage as it is cracked up to be.  The Huskers should not be 7-point home favorites against UCLA here.

There is expected to be rain and wind in this game, which will keep scoring suppressed, which also means that each point is worth more so getting +7 is a nice value.  The Huskers have cluster injuries in the secondary that UCLA QB Ethan Garbers should be able to take advantage of.  

The Bruins have one of the best defensive lines in the country, allowing just 98.6 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season.  That's really impressive when you consider their strength of schedule.  They will stop Nebraska's suspect rushing attack, which averages 126.4 yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season.  UCLA's ability to compete with Nebraska in the trenches is a big reason they get the cover here and possibly win outright.  Bet UCLA Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tulsa/UAB OVER 57

Two fast-paced offenses square off Saturday when Tulsa travels to UAB for this AAC showdown.  UAB ranks 25th in tempo at 24.1 seconds between snaps while Tulsa ranks 30th.  Both offenses should have plenty of success against two of the worst defenses in the country in this one.

UAB ranks 129th in scoring defense allowing 37.6 points per game.  The Blazers have allowed at least 32 points in six consecutive games now.  They even allowed 32 points to a poor ULM offense and 35 points to a USF offense that was starting a backup QB last time out.

Tulsa ranks 122nd in scoring defense allowing 35.9 points per game.  The Golden Hurricane have allowed at least 45 points in four of their last six games.  They were in a wild 46-45 shootout last week with UTSA, and I expect more of the same here against this UAB team coming off a bye week that should be much sharper offensively this week with several new wrinkles for them.

The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday afternoon with temps in the 70's, light winds and zero rain.  These are two teams with not much to play for the rest of the way, and these are the type of games I like to bet OVERS in with the care-free attitude both teams will take to the field.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Auburn -6.5

I've backed Auburn with success in recent weeks and I'm back on them again this week.  They are exactly the type of team I like to back.  They are much better than their 3-5 record would indicate when you dig into their numbers, and because of their poor record they remain undervalued.

Auburn is averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and allowing just 4.9 yards per play on defense.  The Tigers are outgaining opponents by 2.0 yards per play, which is one of the best marks in the entire country.  It's the sign of a team that would be 6-2 or better instead of one that is 3-5 like Auburn.

But the Tigers got a much-needed bye three weeks ago after covering in an 18-point loss at Georgia as 21-point closing dogs.  They returned from their bye and gave Missouri all they wanted in a 21-17 road loss as closing 3.5-point dogs, which I had them at +4.5 earlier in the week and got the cover.  They were the right side the entire game as they led 17-6 in the 4th quarter before giving up 15 unanswered points.

Auburn took out its frustration last week in a dominant 24-10 win at Kentucky as 2-point underdogs.  This was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed as Auburn racked up 500 total yards on a very good Kentucky defense while giving up just 224 yards, outgaining the Wildcats by nearly 300 yards for the game.

While I'm 'buying low' on Auburn because of its poor SU record, I'm 'selling high' on Vanderbilt after a surprising 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season.  This has been one of the best Vanderbilt teams in recent memory and it's mostly due to getting New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia at quarterback.

But the Commodores are running on fumes right now and so is Pavia.  They will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and each of their last six games have all gone down to the wire, so they have had no breaks.  They lost by 4 to Georgia State, lost by 3 at Missouri, won by 5 over Alabama, won by 7 over Kentucky, won by 10 over Ball State and lost by 3 to Texas.

Vanderbilt was 'all in' last week trying to upset Texas at home.  It was a 27-24 final as 17-point dogs, but this game was much more of a blowout than the final score showed.  Texas outgained Vanderbilt 392 to 269, or by 123 total yards.  And the Commodores got a big chunk of those yards on their final drive scoring what was basically a meaningless TD in the final seconds to make a 10-point game a 3-point game.

Pavia got injured during the game and actually had to come out before returning.  I just don't know how much he has left in the tank, and I wouldn't be surprised if he misses part of this game either.  The Commodores won't be nearly as motivated to beat Auburn as they were to beat Texas last week, and this looks like the ultimate flat spot for them.  

I expect Auburn to take control early and to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters.  Auburn is a physical running team averaging 5.2 yards per carry with the zone read.  The Commodores won't be able to match their physicality, especially since they are playing for a 5th consecutive week after going through a gauntlet.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Purdue ML +100

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Purdue Boilermakers this week.  They are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the season and the betting public wants nothing to do with this team right now.  But I've seen some 'buy signs' in their last two games, and I love the fact that they are rested and ready to go coming off a much-needed bye week.

Purdue played six straight games going into their bye week.  Two games ago, they took Illinois to the wire in a 50-49 loss.  In their last game going into the bye, they lost 35-0 to Oregon, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  They were only outgained by 120 yards by the Ducks, but they just kept coming up short time and time again in Oregon territory.

After a brutal six-game schedule of Notre Dame, Oregon State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois and Oregon, the Boilermakers finally get to take a big step down in class here against Northwestern.  While the Boilermakers are fresh and much healthier off their bye week, they face a tired, banged-up Northwestern team playing for a 5th consecutive week.

The Wildcats showed signs of wearing down in their last two games losing 23-3 at home to Wisconsin and 40-14 at Iowa.  They scored both of their touchdowns against Iowa on defense and special teams.  They only managed 163 total yards against Iowa and 209 total yards against Wisconsin.  They have one of the worst offenses in the country.  They rank 123rd in scoring offense at 18.4 points per game and 132nd in total offense at 271.1 yards per game.  Bet Purdue on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State -9.5

This is a good time to 'buy low' on NC State after starting 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS this season.  The Wolfpack had a bye last week to regroup and make a push to make a bowl game.  I fully expect them to come out of their bye week playing their best football of the season.

The Wolfpack have shown 'buy' signs in their last two games, and they desperately needed a bye after playing eight consecutive weeks to start the season without a bye.  That tough schedule was a big reason for their struggles.

Two games ago, the Wolfpack lost 24-17 at home to Syracuse.  But that was a hugely misleading final as the Wolfpack were -3 in turnovers, which was the difference in the game.  Freshman QB CJ Bailey played great, completing 17-of-24 passes for 329 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Bailey backed it up last time out, completing 25-of-36 passes for 306 yards and 2 TD without an INT in a 24-23 comeback victory at California as 9-point dogs.  That was a very good Cal defense he shredded, and now Bailey and company take a big step down in class this week against Stanford.

Now Stanford is the team that that's tired and beat up right now.  The Cardinal will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  Not to mention, they had cross country trips to Syracuse, Clemson and Notre Dame during this stretch, and now they have to fly back across country again here to face a rested, motivated NC State squad.  I don't expect it to go well for them.

Stanford is 0-5 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and has rarely even been competitive.  They lost by 26 at Clemson, by 24 at home to Virginia Tech, by 42 at Notre Dame and by 30 at home to SMU.  The only game they were competitive in came last week at home in a 3-point loss to Wake Forest.  But they were outgained by 72 yards by the Demon Deacons, who are one of the worst teams in the ACC.

The spot really favors a blowout by the rested, motivated Wolfpack at home here.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* Nuggets/Timberwolves ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 218.5

This will be a rematch from the Western Conference semifinals last season.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and these teams could not be more familiar with one another.

These are two of the slower-paced teams in the league again this season.  The Nuggets currently rank 25th in pace while the Timberwolves rank 24th.  And the Timberwolves took a big hit offensively when they lost Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks in the offseason.

Points have been very hard to come by in this series.  The Timberwolves and Nuggets have combined for 209 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  It will be more of the same tonight as these two know each other inside and out.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* San Diego State/Boise State FS1 No-Brainer on San Diego State +23.5

The Boise State Broncos are getting a lot of love now after a 6-1 start and are the favorites to be the Group of 5 team to make the 12-team playoff.  With that hype comes expectations that are very tough to live up to, and I'll gladly fade them in this spot catching 23.5 points with the San Diego State Aztecs Friday night.

The Broncos are coming off their biggest game of the year.  They escaped with a 29-24 win at UNLV last week in what was essentially an elimination game for the 12-team playoff.  I think they breathe a sigh of relief, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat San Diego State this week, let alone beat them by 24-plus points.

San Diego State is improving rapidly under first-year head coach Sean Lewis.  He led the turnaround at Kent State and that program has been dreadful since he left.  The Aztecs were competitive in each of their last four games losing by 1 at Central Michigan, beating Hawaii by 3, beating Wyoming by 3 and only losing by 3 to Washington State.

That 3-point loss to Washington State last week off their bye week was most impressive.  They actually led 26-14 in the 4th quarter against a very good Cougars team.  They outgained them 414 to 371 for the game, or by 43 total yards.  They won't have any problem getting back up off the mat to face a ranked Boise State team this week.

There is expected to be some weather here with a 60% chance of rain and 15 MPH winds in Boise Friday night.  The tougher scoring conditions makes each point worth more, and thus it will make it much harder for the Broncos to get margin.  They have just two wins by more than 21 points this season and they came against Utah State and FCS Portland State.  I think they'll get more of a fight from the Aztecs than they bargained for in this one.  Bet San Diego State Friday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 221.5

The Clippers hired Jeff Van Gundy to run their defense in the offseason.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team playing some of the best defense in the entire NBA, plus the fact that their offense is in shambles without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.  Leonard is hurt and they let George go to the 76ers.

The UNDER would be 4-0 in all Clippers games this season if not for an OT game.  They have gone for 216 or fewer points at the end of regulation in all four games.  That one OT game was against these same Phoenix Suns in their season opener.

That game was tied 103-103 at the end of regulation for just 206 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and this will be another defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

The Suns are playing much better defense this season under head coach Mike Budenholzer.  The UNDER would be 3-1 in all Phoenix games if not for OT, and they have seen 216 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in three of their four games.  

The Clippers rank 3rd in defensive rating while the Suns rank 6th thus far.  The Clippers rank 22nd in pace while the Suns rank 19th, so neither are playing fast.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets +6

The Houston Rockets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They brought back pretty much everyone from a team that went on an 11-game winning streak last March to make a run at the playoffs.  They added some good pieces, and I like head coach Ime Udoka.

The spot is really good for the Rockets tonight as well.  They come in on two days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  They play a Dallas Mavericks team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Jazz by 8 at home and the Timberwolves by 6 on the road.

The Mavericks have been far from impressive this season beating the Jazz by 8 and the Spurs by 11 at home, and losing by 12 to the Suns on the road.  They are getting too much respect for their upset win at Minnesota last time out.  It's clearly a bad matchup for the Timberwolves after losing in five games to the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals last year.

The Rockets played the Mavericks tough last year despite going 1-3 SU.  They won by 26 at home and two of their three losses came by 6 points in regulation and another in OT.  Houston is a very live underdog tonight given the big rest advantage.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

20* Texans/Jets AFC No-Brainer on New York PK

The New York Jets (2-6) are favored over the Houston Texans (6-2) despite being four games back of them.  I agree with them being favored because these teams could easily have their records reversed when you dive into it.

The Jets aren't nearly as bad as their 2-6 record would indicate.  Their kicker cost them three games and they should be 5-3 at minimum.  That's why they are changing kickers this week.  Four of their five losses have come by 6 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.

The Texans are 6-2 this season, but five of their six wins came by 6 points or less, including four by 4 points or fewer.  Their lone blowout win came against the lowly New England Patriots.  They have one of the best kickers in the league, which has been a big difference for them.

While the Jets are pretty healthy right now, the Texans have major injury concerns especially on offense.  They were already without Nico Collins, and now they are going to be without Stephon Diggs who suffered a torn ACL against the Colts last week.  Those two have combined for 79 receptions for 1,063 yards and 6 TD this season and both will be sorely missed.  Fellow WR Tank Dell isn't fully healthy either, and he is really their last proven weapon on the outside.

The Texans are 6-12 SU in games where Nico Collins has received one or fewer targets.  CJ Stroud has looked lost without him the last few weeks.  He is averaging just 187.7 passing yards per game in his last three games despite getting to face the Patriots, Colts and Packers.  Now he'll be up against one of the best pass defenses he has faced this season.

The Jets rank 4th in total defense at 286.9 yards per game, 2nd at 4.9 yards per play and 2nd against the pass allowing just 161.1 passing yards per game.  With a defense that elite, it just goes to show how unfortunate the Jets are to be 2-6 this season.  Their offense should be even better moving forward as they implement Devante Adams into the scheme.  

Aaron Rodgers just has too many weapons to be held down for too long.  I expect him and the Jets to get right this week.  Their best performance of the season also came on Thursday Night Football with a 24-3 home win over the Patriots.  This will be the first Thursday Night game for the Texans under DeMeco Ryans, and coaches in this situation for the first time have notoriously struggled.  Plus it's a long trip from Houston to New York on the short week to boot.  

The Texans are 'fat and happy' right now after beating the Colts for a second time this season last week, giving them a commanding lead in the awful AFC South division.  The Jets are pissed off and will be playing with their hair on fire this week as they try and save their season.  Bet the Jets on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Tulane/Charlotte ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte +15

The Charlotte 49ers had a bye three weeks ago and are as healthy as they have been all season.  They were coming off upset wins over Rice 21-20 as 4.5-point dogs and ECU 55-24 as 9.5-point dogs going into their bye week.  They came out of their bye as 16.5-point dogs to Navy and lost 51-17.

But that was a very misleading final against Navy.  Charlotte was -5 in turnovers against Navy and gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with an 84-yard INT return TD and a 61-yard INT return TD.  The 49ers actually outgained the Midshipmen 363 to 288 for the game, or by 75 total yards.  Navy had no business scoring 51 points with just 288 total yards.

That misleading final was a big reason I backed Charlotte last week as 17-point closing dogs at Memphis.  The 49ers gave the Tigers all they wanted in a 33-28 loss.  Memphis is just as good as Tulane, and now the 49ers are catching 15 points at home to the Green Wave this week.  This value is too good to pass up again.

I think it's a tough spot for Tulane, and I haven't been all that impressed with the Green Wave in their last couple games.  Two weeks ago they only beat Rice 24-10 as 22.5-point home favorites.  Last week they were fortunate to cover in a 45-37 win at North Texas as 7-point favorites.  They allowed 525 total yards to the Mean Green, and now they are on a short week here and their defense is gassed.  

Not to mention there is a lot of travel involved having to return home from Dallas and now flying out to Charlotte, going clear across the country from Saturday to Thursday.  They also just clinched bowl eligibility getting to 6-2 this season, so this could be a flat spot for them.  Either way, the 49ers are good enough to stay within two touchdowns of the Green Wave.  Bet Charlotte Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Warriors UNDER 221

I was on the under 217.5 last night between the Pelicans and Warriors, and I'll certainly take it again at an even better number of 221 tonight.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and with this being the 2nd meeting in 2 days these teams are obviously familiar with one another.

A big reason I was on the under last night was because the Warriors were without their top two scorers in Curry and Wiggins, while the Hawks were without one of their best scorers in Dejounte Murray.  There's a good chance all three will be out again tonight.

After just 98 combined points at halftime last night, these teams exploded by 132 combined points in the 2H and it was a pretty tough beat.  The Pelicans shot 53% as a team, while the Warriors shot an unsustainable 21-of-46 (46%) from 3-point range.  I think both teams are due some big-time shooting regression in the rematch tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -12

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season and neck-and-neck with the Boston Celtics as the best teams in the NBA.  The three wins came by 15 at Denver, by 19 at Chicago and by 24 at home over Atlanta.

Now the Thunder have had the last two days off and will be highly motivated to put on a show on ESPN tonight.  They get to host one of the worst teams in the NBA in the San Antonio Spurs.

The Spurs are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS this season with their lone win coming over the Rockets by 3 at home in the 2nd of a back-to-back for Houston.  They lost by 11 at Dallas, and then lost tot he Rockets by 5 at home in the rematch.  This will be far and away their toughest test of the season, and they will be without two key players in Vassell and Jones tonight.

The Thunder own the Spurs going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Each of their last five wins have come by 12 points or more.  These games haven't even been close, and this one won't be either.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat +2

The Miami Heat are close to full strength right now and have great chemistry with basically their entire team back from last season.  They are playing with a sense of urgency early in the season because they are tired of having to make the playoffs through the play-in.  This looks like one of the best teams in the East on paper, and I like the switch to more 3's and more looks at the rim instead of mid-range jumpers from this team in the early going.

The New York Knicks are already banged up and short-handed, which cost them in the playoffs last season.  Jalen Brunson is already beat up, Josh Hart is questionable with a leg injury, and they are without two key bench pieces in Achiuwa and Robinson.  They are trying to implement Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges into the offense, and it's a work in progress in the early going.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series between Miami and New York.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings. Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +4.5

The Detroit Pistons are 0-4 SU this season and highly motivated for their first win of the season.  They have been very close to winning against some very good teams despite that record, and I expect them to get over the hump tonight against the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers.

The Pistons lost by 6 to the Pacers, by 12 to the Cavs, by 6 to the Celtics and by 8 to the Heat.  They took all those teams to the wire and all four are expected to be shoe-ins to make the playoffs this season.  They are very healthy right now to boot.

The same cannot be said for the 76ers, who are without their two best players in Joel Embiid and Paul George.  This is one of the worst rosters in the NBA without those two, and it is showing.  There's not much to like outside Tyrese Maxey, who has a lot on his shoulders trying to carry this team without their other two stars.

The 76ers are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS including an upset loss to the lowly Toronto Raptors.  They also lost by 15 to the Bucks at home and pulled the surprising upset over the Pacers last time out, which has them overvalued now.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville State +2.5

Jacksonville State is a juggernaut right now.  The Gamecocks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games while outscoring their opponents 203 to 64 in those four games.  They have covered the spread by a combined 74.5 points in those four games.  Now the Gamecocks come back as underdogs to Liberty tonight, and the wrong team is favored in this game.

Liberty is 5-1 SU but 1-5 ATS and very fortunate to be 5-1 SU.  The Flames came into the season as a popular pick to be the Group of 5 team to make the 12-team playoff.  With those expectations come inflated lines that have clearly been tough for them to live up to.

The Flames escaped with a 30-24 win at New Mexico State as a 22-point favorite, needed a double-digit comeback to beat East Carolina, only beat FIU 31-24 as 16-point favorites, and also struggled to put away both UTEP and Campbell by margin.

It all caught up to the Flames last week as they lost outright 27-24 to Kennesaw State as 26.5-point favorites.  Kennesaw State is widely considered the worst team in FBS as a first-year member this season.  They previously hadn't won a single game this season before beating Liberty.

Now with their playoff hopes dashed, I think it's the type of loss that came beat the Flames twice.  I don't expect them to show up this week against Jacksonville State.  Meanwhile, the Gamecocks want revenge from a 31-13 loss to the Flames last season and won't have any problem showing up.  Plus they want to win the conference and are very live to do it.

New Mexico State and Kennesaw State are two common opponents of these teams.  Jacksonville State outscored those two teams 117-37, while Liberty only outscored those two teams 54-51.  Those results against common opponents show that the Gamecocks are the much superior team this season.  Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Warriors UNDER 217.5

Injuries to the Golden State Warriors are the reason I'm on the UNDER tonight.  They will be without their two best scorers in Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins.  They are going to have to rely on defense led by Draymond Green to try and be competitive until they get these guys back because they are going to be lost offensively without Curry and Wiggins.

The Pelicans spent a lot to get Dejounte Murray (22.5 PPG last season) from the Atlanta Hawks in the offseason.  Well, Murray suffered fractured hand in their opener and they will now be without him for 4-6 weeks.

In their two games without Murray since, the Pelicans struggled offensively scoring just 105 and 103 points in two meetings with the Portland Trail Blazers, who aren't exactly a top-notch defensive squad.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +5.5

The Denver Nuggets are the most overrated team in the NBA this season.  They lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the Magic in the offseason and they have one of the worst benches in the NBA.  They are top-heavy with Jokic, Gordon and Murray and it is showing.

Indeed, the Nuggets are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season.  They lost outright 102-87 as 2-point home favorites to the Thunder, lost outright 109-104 as 7.5-point home favorites to the Clippers and needed a 14-point comeback to beat the lowly Toronto Raptors 127-125 (OT) as 8.5-point road favorites.

That's a Toronto team missing several of their best players and is currently likely the worst team in the NBA.  They also lost Scottie Barnes during the game.  But now the short-handed Nuggets will have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back off that OT win last night.  Jokic played 43 minutes, Gordon 42, Murray 39, Porter Jr. 39 and Braun 39.  They only had three players play any significant minutes off the bench, so I question how much they'll have left in the tank tonight.

I've been impressed with the start by the Brooklyn Nets, who look to be a sleeper in the early going.  They Nets only lost by 4 at Atlanta as 7-point dogs and upset Milwaukee by 13 as 8.5-point home dogs in their lone home game.  They also lost by 15 to one of the best teams in the NBA in the Orlando Magic on the road.  Given the tough spot for the Nuggets, I think the Nets can hang tonight and will likely win this game outright.  Bet the Nets Tuesday.

15* CFB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico State +9.5

New Mexico State has a big rest advantage in this game tonight which is a big reason I'm willing to back one of the worst teams in college football.  They are coming off a bye week and last played on October 15th.

I've been impressed with some performances by the Aggies this season, not the least of which was their 33-30 win as 12-point dogs to Louisiana Tech last time out.  They also took New Mexico to the wire in a 50-40 defeat, and they should have beaten Liberty letting them off the hook late in a 30-24 defeat as 22-point dogs.

Florida International will be playing for a 4th straight week and will be playing their 3rd game in 14 days.  It has been an ugly look for the Panthers, who have lost three in a row including a 30-21 loss as 7-point favorites at UTEP, handing the Miners their lone win this season.  They also lost to Sam Houston State at home last week, and the Bearkats were without starting QB Hunter Watson.

Sitting at 2-6 on the season, I question how much the Panthers will be motivated to finish out this season.  Their bowl hopes are pretty much shot not.  I don't see them getting up to face New Mexico State tonight.

This is expected to be a low-scoring game with a total of just 43.5 and heavy winds in the forecast.  Getting nearly double-digits in low-scoring games is nice value as it is.  New Mexico State is the better rushing team averaging 162 rushing yards per game.  FIU allows 194 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  FIU only averages 104 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry offensively.  Bet New Mexico State Tuesday.

20* Lakers/Suns NBA TV No-Brainer on Phoenix -3.5

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 123-116 road loss to the Lakers on October 25th.  They don't have to wait long for their revenge as they now host the Lakers just three days later.

The Suns were impressive in their home opener beating the Mavericks 114-102 despite playing the 2nd of a back-to-back while the Mavericks were rested.  They were also without Bradley Beal, who could return to face the Lakers tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Lakers after opening 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with three narrow wins all by 7 points or less.  All three wins were at home, and now they have to hit the road for the first time this season.  They are 'fat and happy' right now and won't be all that motivated to try and beat the Suns for a 2nd time this season.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* Giants/Steelers ESPN No-Brainer on New York +6

The New York Giants have been a much better road team than a home team for years and that continues to be the case this season.  I don't know if they can't handle the pressure of the New York media, or they obviously don't enjoy getting boo'd by there home fans, but there's clearly something to it.

While the Giants are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS at home this season, they are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS on the road.  They lost 21-18 at Washington as 1-point dogs only because they lost their FG kicker to an injury and had to go for 2 on all three of their touchdowns, failing each time.  They won 21-15 as 6.5-point dogs at Cleveland and they pulled the 29-20 upset as 7-point dogs at Seattle in their last road game.

Now we get the Giants in a similar price range here as 6-point road dogs at Pittsburgh.  While it's time to 'buy low' on the Giants off their embarrassing 28-3 home loss to the Eagles last week, it's also time to 'sell high' on the Steelers off their 37-15 win over the Jets on Sunday Night Football last week.

The Steelers go from being just 3.5-point favorites on the lookahead line to 6-point favorites now after what happened last week.  Everyone saw the Steelers crush the Jets on Sunday Night Football, so the betting public is hammering the Steelers hand over fist so far this week.

But that was a misleading 37-15 win over the Jets to say the least.  The Steelers only outgained the Jets 6.2 to 5.9 yards per play.  Aaron Rodgers had two costly interceptions, including a fluky one that bounce off of WR Garrett Wilson.  The Steelers got all the bounces in that game, and I don't believe that will happen again.

The Giants got great injury news with their two best pass rushers in NT Dexter Lawrence II and LB Brian Burns expected to play this week.  They are basically fully healthy on defense, and they are fully healthy on offense as well with the exception of LT Andrew Thomas.  Brian Daboll will scheme up a way to protect Daniel Jones from TJ Watt, plus Jones' mobility will be very useful.

The Steelers will be starting C Zach Frazier and his backup Nate Herbig.  Injuries to the center position are consistently not taken into account enough in terms of the line.  They are without NT Montravius Adams, NB Cameron Sutton and two backup LB's in Tyler Matakevich and Nick Herbig as well defensively.

Last week Russell Wilson was kept clean, but his immobility will be tested this week.  The Giants lead the NFL in sacks with 31 and it is the strength of their team.  Daniel Jones is 18-7 ATS in his last 25 starts as a road underdog.  Bet the Giants Monday.