20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCF +9.5

We saw Michigan, Iowa State and Vanderbilt all have their unbeaten records come to an end within the last week.  Arizona is on upset alert today on the road against a UCF team that has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.

It's a huge letdown spot for Arizona, which is coming off a lackluster 79-72 home win over rival Arizona State as 21.5-point favorites.  With their unbeaten record comes expectations from the public and oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  Asking the Wildcats to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

UCF is 11-1 at home this season.  That includes 2-0 in Big 12 play with an upset win over Kansas and a win over Cincinnati.  They followed up that win over Cincinnati with a 82-73 road win at Kansas State as 2.5-point dogs.  They are licking their chops at this opportunity to take down the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Northwestern Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +6

We saw Michigan, Iowa State and Vanderbilt all have their unbeaten records come to an end within the last week.  Now it's Nebraska's turn this week with a road loss to Northwestern Saturday.  With their unbeaten record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Huskers today.

It's also time to 'buy low' on the Wildcats, who have opened 0-6 in Big Ten play with five losses by 11 points or fewer, so they have been competitive in all but one game.  They just took Illinois to the wire at home last time out, and they will take Nebraska to the wire at home today.

The Wildcats are 8-2 SU in their last 10 meetings with the Huskers with both losses coming by 6 points or fewer, making for a 10-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 6-point spread.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Missouri ML +105

The LSU Tigers are without their best player in Dedan Thomas Jr. (16.2 PPG, 7.0 APG).  It's no surprise they have gone 0-4 SU in their last four games without him including home losses to both South Carolina and Kentucky.

They are coming off a gutting loss at the buzzer to Kentucky on Wednesday after blowing a big lead in the 2H.  I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and I question their mental state heading into this one.  They only have two days to get ready for this game now.

Missouri is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset Florida and Auburn at home, and they upset Kentucky on the road.  Now they are once again underdogs here to this short-handed LSU team.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Missouri on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Ivy League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cornell/Yale OVER 175

Cornell is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Big Red rank 8th in adjusted tempo, 2nd in average length of offensive possession, 64th in adjusted offense, 12th in effective FG percentage offense, 351st in adjusted defense and 353rd in effective FG percentage defense.

The Big Red are 10-3 OVER in all games this season including 7-2 OVER in road games.  They have gone for 173 or more combined points in 12 of their 15 games this season, so this total of 175 isn't even that large for a game involving Cornell.

Yale is an elite offensive team ranking 38th in adjusted offense.  The Bulldogs are a terrible defensive team ranking 240th in adjusted defense.  This game sets up for a great OVER bet.  These teams combined for 191 and 180 points in their two regular season meetings last year.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Summit League PLAY OF THE DAY on South Dakota/North Dakota OVER 158.5

South Dakota is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Coyotes rank 42nd in adjusted tempo and 357th in adjusted defense.  They are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall with 176 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  This total of 158.5 is very short for a game involving South Dakota.

North Dakota is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall finishing with 160 or more combined points in all four games.  The Fighting Hawks are also a terrible defensive team ranking 335th in adjusted defense.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 158 or more combined points in all five, 171 or more combined points in three of the last four.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan/Akron OVER 167

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 29th in adjusted tempo, 24th in average length of offensive possession, 20th in adjusted offense and 4th in effective FG percentage.  The Zips are averaging 93.0 points per game this season despite not playing a single OT game.

Western Michigan is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall.  The Broncos are a terrible defensive team ranking 301st in adjusted defense.  I would be surprised if Akron doesn't come close to 100 points today to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  WMU has scored at least 76 points in five consecutive games and will do their part as well against this suspect Akron defense that ranks 180th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Buffalo/Miami Ohio OVER 159.5

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Redhawks are averaging 93.3 points per game this season and they've only played one OT game.  They rank 46th in adjusted tempo and 75th in adjusted offense.  They are 11-4 OVER in all games this season and they have combined for 159 or more points with their opponents in seven of their last eight games overall.  This total of 159.5 is very short for a game involving Miami Ohio.

Buffalo profiles as an OVER team with a great offense that ranks 103rd in adjusted offense and a terrible defense at 306th in adjusted defense.  The Bulls are 9-6 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 79.9 points per game and haven't played an OT game all season.  The Bulls are 3-0 OVER in their last three games going for 168 combined points with Kent State and 171 with Ohio in their last two games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Kentucky/Tennessee ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -5.5

Tennessee is 10-0 at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Vols have recent home wins over Louisville by 21, Texas by 14 and Texas A&M by 5.  They will make easy work of this overrated Kentucky team, too.

Kentucky is 1-2 SU in true road games with the lone win coming at the buzzer against an LSU team that was missing their best player.  They also lost by 15 at Alabama and by 8 at Louisville, a common opponent that the Vols blasted by 21.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* CAA PLAY OF THE DAY on Elon/Hofstra OVER 149.5

Elon is a dead nuts OVER team going 12-4 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Phoenix rank 82nd in adjusted offense and 294th in adjusted defense.  The Phoenix and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in six of their last seven games overall, and 160 or more in 14 of their 18 games this season.  This total of 149.5 is very low for a game involving Elon.

Hofstra is also a very good offensive team ranking 100th in adjusted offense.  The Pride are 10-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Pride are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Baylor/Kansas FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 155.5

Baylor is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bears rank 14th in adjusted offense and 94th in adjusted defense.  They are 9-6 OVER in all games this season and scoring 88.7 points per game.  Baylor and its opponents have combined for at least 155 points in 12 of their 16 games this season.  This total of 155 is very short for a game involving the Bears.

The Jayhawks have been a juggernaut offensively when Darryn Peterson (21.8 PPG) has been on the court.  Well, he has only played in eight games this season, but he has been healthy for Big 12 play and the offense is thriving.  The Jayhawks have averaged 82.9 points per game in the eight games in which Peterson has played.  He may be the best player in the country, and he's certainly the best scorer.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Cavs/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia ML -118

I love the spot for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  The 76ers want revenge from a 133-107 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday.  Now they get their shot at quick revenge here two days later at home.  They will be the more motivated team tonight.

The Cavaliers shot 52.6% from the field and 43.5% from 3-point range, while the 76ers had one of their worst shooting nights of the season, making 40.4% from the field and 27.9% from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

While the 76ers are fully healthy with only Dominick Barlow (8.3 PPG) questionable, the Cavaliers will be down two key players that they had in that first meeting.  Both Darius Garland (18.0 PPG, 6.9 APG) and Sam Merrill (13.8 PPG) will be out for this game after getting injured on Wednesday.  Garland in particular was having a huge game with 20 points and 7 assists before departing.  Not having Merrill's shooting makes the Cavaliers much easier to defend.

This line is basically the same as it was in that first meeting as well, and there has to be an adjustment for not having Garland and Merrill.  There also has to be an adjustment for the fact that the 76ers will be the more motivated team for revenge, while the Cavaliers will relax and won't be that motivated to beat this team again.  Bet the 76ers on the Money Line Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Toledo/Kent State OVER 169.5

Kent State is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all games this season including 6-2 OVER in home games.  The Golden Flashes are scoring 90.4 points per game overall including 98 points per game at home.  They rank 19th in adjusted tempo, 103rd in adjusted offense and 245th in adjusted defense.

Toledo has a similar profile ranking 111th in adjusted tempo, 101st in adjusted offense and 263rd i adjusted defense.  The Rockets are scoring 82.7 points per game and have not played an OT game yet.  They are coming off a 101-85 home win over Ohio for 186 combined points.

Kent State's last three MAC games have seen 189 combined points with Bowling Green, 172 with Central Michigan and 168 with Buffalo.  None of those teams are as potent as this Toledo offense.  The Golden Flashes will control the tempo playing at home in what will be an absolute shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on CS-Northridge/UC-San Diego OVER 159

CS-Northridge is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Matadors rank 11th in adjusted tempo and 19th in average length of offensive possession.  They are 10-6 OVER in all games this season including 6-2 OVER in all road games.  The Matadors and their opponents have combined for at least 165 points in five of their last six games overall.

UC-San Diego is a solid offensive team ranking 85th in adjusted offense and a mediocre defensive team ranking 141st in adjusted defense.  The Tritons have scored at least 80 points in nine of their last 13 games overall.  They will easy top 80 points here against Northridge, which ranks 223rd in adjusted defense.  Northridge has scored at least 79 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  I expect both teams to get into the 80's in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE WEEK on CS-Fullerton/UC-Davis OVER 167.5

Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team scoring 86.7 points per game and allowing 85.6 points per game this season.  They still haven't played an OT game, either.  The Titans rank 4th in adjusted tempo and 4th in average length of offensive possession.  They rank 240th in adjusted defense and 340th in effective FG percentage (56.4%) defense as well.

UC-Davis is 9-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Aggies are scoring 81.0 points per game and also have not played an OT game yet.  UC-Davis is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 169 or more combined points in 3 of their last 5 games, and 160 or more in six straight.  The Aggies have scored at least 81 points in six consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Celtics/Heat NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 233.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season by a wide margin.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  They are scoring 122.2 points per game and allowing 117.1 points per game at home this season.

The Boston Celtics don't play fast, but they play as efficient as anyone in the NBA with their ability to shoot a ton of 3-pointers at a high clip.  In fact, the Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating, which is a big reason Joe Mazulla is the favorite to win Coach of the Year with his ability to get the most out of this team without Jayson Tatum.

This will be a rematch from a 129-116 home win by the Celtics on December 19th which saw 245 combined points.  The Heat only shot 39% as a team in that game as well.  These teams combined for 92 3-point attempts, and it will be more of the same tonight with a lot of long rebounds and chances to run.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Thunder/Rockets NBA ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 222.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 28th in pace and 9th in defensive rating.  They have gone 6-1 UNDER in their last seven games overall with 216 or fewer combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 222.5 is very high for a game involving the Rockets, who have been held to 105 points or fewer in five of their last six games so they are struggling mightily offensively right now.

The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 1st in defensive rating by a wide margin this season.  They just held the Spurs to 98 points last time out, and they will suffocate the Houston Rockets tonight as well.  But I think Houston can hold them in check by slowing the tempo to a snail's pace at home tonight.

In their lone previous meeting this season, the Rockets and Thunder were tied 104-104 at the end of regulation for just 208 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* CAA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Elon/Northeastern OVER 160

Elon is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Phoenix rank 76th in adjusted offense and 306th in adjusted defense.  The Phoenix and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in five of their last six games overall, and 160 or more in 13 of their 17 games this season.

Northeastern ranks 94th in adjusted tempo, 159th in adjusted offense and 294th in adjusted defense.  The Huskies are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 159 or more combined points in all seven games, and 162 or more in six of them.  This total of 160 is too short for a game involving the Huskies and Phoenix.

In fact, we saw that play out already once this season with Elon winning 103-91 over Northeastern on December 29th in their first meeting this season.  That meeting saw 194 combined points, so we have a lot of room to spare in cashing this OVER 160 in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Green Bay/Cleveland State OVER 149

Cleveland State really profiles as an OVER team.  The Vikings rank 101st in adjusted tempo and 354th in adjusted defense.  They are 10-5 OVER in all games this season and have gone for at least 145 combined points in 16 of their 18 games this season, and 152 or more combined points in 13 of those 18 games.  This total of 149 is very low for a game involving Cleveland State.

Green Bay is playing its best offense of the season scoring 72 or more points in five straight.  The Phoenix rank 162nd in adjusted offense but just 310th in adjusted defense.  This total of 149 is very low for a game involving two teams that rank in the 300's in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Robert Morris/IU Indy OVER 158.5

IU Indy ranks 1st in the entire country in adjusted tempo.  They force their opponents to play at a break-neck pace and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  This total of 158.5 is very short for a game involving IU Indy.  In fact, it's their 2nd-lowest total of the entire season.  There's clearly value with the OVER.

Robert Morris is a perfect 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall with 153 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The Colonials are a solid offensive team ranking 151st in adjusted offense but a terrible defensive team ranking 257th in adjusted defense.  IU Indy is even worse on defense, ranking 357th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +9.5

It's time to 'buy low' on Northwestern after a 0-5 start in Big Ten play and 'sell high' on Illinois after a 4-1 start in Big Ten play.  Asking the Fighting Illini to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Northwestern could easily be 4-1 instead of 0-5 in Big Ten play.  Four of their losses have come by a combined 22 points, and none of those came by more than 10 points.  Illinois has played two true road games all season winning by 8 at Ohio State and by 6 at Iowa.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Northwestern pulled off the outright upset in each of the last two meetings in Evanston.  The Wildcats haven't lost a home game by more than 6 points all season.  Bet Northwestern Wednesday.

15* Summit League PLAY OF THE DAY on SDSU/NDSU OVER 148

South Dakota State is a perfect 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall.  The Jackrabbits and their opponents have combined for at least 153 points in seven consecutive games overall.  This total of 148 is very low for a game involving SDSU right now.

North Dakota State is 5-1-1 OVER in its last seven games overall.  The Bison and their opponents have combined for at least 154 points in three straight, and 147 or more in seven of their last nine games overall.  This total of 148 is pretty low for a game involving the Bison as well.

NDSU ranks 130th in adjusted offense but just 173rd in adjusted defense.  SDSU ranks 169th in adjusted offense but just 226th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +8

Temple is playing too well to be a 8-point road underdog to Memphis tonight.  The Owls are 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall including outright upset wins over Davidson and Charlotte on the road.

This is the worst Memphis team of the Penny Hardaway era.  The Tigers are 7-8 this season and have just one double-digit scorer on their roster.  They rank 148th in adjusted offense as scoring has been a real problem, which makes it difficult to get margin.  They also rank 337th in turnover percentage turning it over on 20.5% of their offensive possessions.

The Tigers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their three wins came over Alabama State, North Texas and Rice.  They have had just two days to get ready for this game after a 89-78 loss at FAU on Sunday, while Temple has had the last six days off and has a big rest advantage as a result.  

The Owls are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Memphis not once losing by double-digits.  Bet Temple Wednesday.

15* Cavs/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 235

Both the Cavaliers and 76ers are as healthy as they have been all season.  And when they are this healthy, they are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  This figures to be a shootout tonight with elite offense on both sides.

The Cavaliers and their opponents have gone for at least 235 combined points in each of their last four games.  That includes 280 and 253 in their two meetings with Minnesota.

The 76ers are thriving offensively right now scoring 115 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.  That includes 123 or more in five of those.  With Embiid, George, Maxey, Edecombe, Grimes, Oubre and Barlow all healthy right now, the 76ers are potent offensively.  

The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the 76ers and Cavaliers.  They combined for 253 and 261 points in their last two meetings.  This total of 235 is way too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Tulsa/Charlotte OVER 147

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 10-4 OVER in all games this season and not once going to OT.  The Golden Hurricane and their opponents have combined for at least 147 points in 13 of their 16 games this season.  They rank 44th in adjusted offense and 180th in adjusted defense.

Charlotte is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall going for 147 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The 49ers rank 114th in adjusted offense but just 269th in adjusted defense.  So this game will feature efficient offense up against some really bad defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kentucky -3.5

LSU is coming off three consecutive losses including the last two by double-digits with a 10-point home loss to South Carolina and a 11-point road loss at Vanderbilt.  This poor play has coincided with the loss of their best player in Dedan Thomas Jr. (16.2 PPG, 7.0 APG).  They are a very poor team without him and it's showing.

LSU will be without Thomas Jr. again tonight when they take on Kentucky, a Wildcats team that is rapidly improving.  The Wildcats are 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall with impressive wins over St. John's by 12, Indiana by 12 and Mississippi State by 24.  Their only losses came to Alabama and Missouri.  They will make easy work of the short-handed Tigers tonight.  Bet Kentucky Wednesday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on ECU/USF OVER 156.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls rank 17th in adjusted tempo and 18th in average length of offensive possession.  They are scoring 91.1 points per game on the season and allowing 79.8 points per game.  11 of their 16 games this season have seen 156 or more combined points.

East Carolina will have no problem getting up and down with the Bulls.  The Pirates rank 92nd in adjusted tempo this season.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall and coming off a 87-85 loss to UAB for 172 combined points.  UAB is a team that profiles similarly to USF.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Auburn/Missouri OVER 153

Auburn is 11-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Tigers and their opponents have combined for at least 152 points in 14 of their 16 games this season.  This total of 153 is very low for a game involving Auburn.

Auburn ranks 9th in the country in adjusted offense this season.  They are scoring 87.5 points per game overall.  Missouri ranks 48th in adjusted offense while averaging 81.7 points per game overall, including 89.8 points per game at home.  Both teams prefer to play fast on offense as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Big Ten Total DOMINATOR on Iowa/Purdue UNDER 144.5

Iowa is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Hawkeyes rank 339th in adjusted tempo and 20th in adjusted defense.  This total of 144.5 is very high for a game involving the Hawkeyes.  They have gone for 144 or fewer combined points in nine of their last 11 games overall.

Purdue also plays at a snail's pace ranking 287th in adjusted tempo.  The Boilermakers are also elite defensively ranking 22nd in adjusted defense.  This game will see very few possessions which means fewer opportunities for points, and fewer opportunities to foul to get either team in the bonus.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Lakers are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 16 in San Antonio as 9-point dogs, by 4 at home to the Bucks as 3-point favorites and by 12 at Sacramento as 9.5-point favorites.  That was a short-handed Kings team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back last night, too.

Now the Lakers are in the bad spot playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  LeBron James is 50/50 to play tonight, and Luke Doncic suffered an injury in the 2H of the loss to the Kings that may keep him out tonight.  Both are listed as questionable.  Not to mention, the Lakers are already without Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura.

The Hawks are rolling going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall beating the Pelicans by 17 as 10.5-point home favorites, the Nuggets by 23 as 3-point road favorites and the Warriors by 13 as 7-point road dogs.  Getting CJ McCollum in the trade with the Wizards for Trae Young is a very underrated move in their favor.

McCollum (18.6 PPG) gives the Hawks an extra scorer AND he actually plays defense, unlike Young.  Jalen Johnson (23.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 8.2 APG) is the most improved player in the NBA, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (20.6 PPG) has taken his game to the next level.  Okongwu (16.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG) is one of the more underrated big men in the league, too.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor/Oklahoma State OVER 165.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on an OVER.  Baylor went under the total in each of its last three games against arguably the three best defensive teams in the Big 12 in TCU, Iowa State and Houston.  Oklahoma State went under the total in each of its last two games against UCF and Iowa State.  But these are two dead nuts OVER teams and things will come much easier for both offensively tonight.

Oklahoma State ranks 4th in adjusted tempo, 38th in averaging length of offensive possession and 62nd in adjusted offense.  The Cowboys had gone 4-0 OVER in their previous four games combining for 170 points with UMKC, 183 with Fullerton, 180 with Bethune-Cookman and 182 with Texas Tech.

Baylor is an elite offensive team ranking 20th in adjusted offense but one of the worst defensive teams in the Big 12 ranking 96th in adjusted defense.  The Bears also prefer to play faster ranking 127th in adjusted tempo.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma State +1

Oklahoma State is 11-0 at home this season with a 87-76 win as 2-point favorites over UCF in their lone Big 12 home game this season.  That performance was sandwiched between a pair of road losses to Texas Tech and Iowa State, two of the best teams in the Big 12.  Now they take a big step down in class here against Baylor.

The Bears have been dreadful in their last three games going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS.  They lost by 6 as 3-point dogs at TCU, then were blown out by 10 at home by Iowa State and by 22 at home by Houston.  They are a tired team playing their 3rd game in 7 days, and their tired legs will be tested by an Oklahoma State team that ranks 4th in adjusted tempo.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Oklahoma State Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks -3

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They were coming off a 105-101 road win over the Lakers and had a letdown last time out in a 108-104 loss to the short-handed Nuggets on the road.  Now they are refocused back at home taking on a border rival in the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They also want revenge from a 103-100 loss in Minnesota in their first meeting.

The Timberwolves are a tired, banged up team right now.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days off two straight wars against Cleveland and San Antonio.  They will be resting Anthony Edwards (28.9 PPG), and Rudy Gobert (11.0 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG) has been suspended.

The Bucks are pretty much fully healthy right now with Giannis looking like his best self again.  He is going to be able to attack the rim at will with no Gobert for rim protection, and that will be the difference in this game with the Bucks getting whatever they want at the rim in this game.  Not having to worry about Anthony Edwards is a big deal, too.  Milwaukee should be a much bigger favorite tonight.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* Spurs/Thunder NBC ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 33-7 this season.  Three of those losses have come to the San Antonio Spurs.  It's safe to say the Thunder will be max motivated playing with triple-revenge tonight, and I expect to see them put forth their best effort of the season as a result.

I expect the Spurs to be 'fat and happy' knowing they've already beaten this team three times.  They have zero motivation to beat them a 4th time as they have already won the season series.  This will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Spurs after playing two wars in Boston and Minnesota.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Thunder after failing to cover the spread in five consecutive games coming into this one.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time only missing Isaiah Hartenstein as their lone key contributor that will sit this one out.  The Spurs are without Devin Vassell (14.9 PPG).  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall +6.5

UConn is a tired team right now which is a big reason the Huskies are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They failed to cover in a home win over Marquette, needed OT to beat Providence as double-digit favorites on the road, and were flat in a 12-point home win over DePaul as 19.5-point favorites.

Now the Huskies will be playing their 4th game in 10 days tonight and have to hit the road again to take on a very gritty, tough Seton Hall team.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank, and this is a game they could easily lose outright.

Seton Hall is one of the most improved teams in the country this season going 14-2 SU & 10-6 ATS.  Their two losses came by 2 points to USC and by 8 to Villanova.  They have opened 4-1 in Big East play with three road wins already.  Now they are home where they are 8-1 SU this season and it will be a raucous atmosphere with Top 10 UConn coming to town.  Bet Seton Hall Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Heat OVER 230

This is a very low total for a game involving the Miami Heat tonight.  The Heat rank 1st in pace this season and are scoring 121.9 points per game at home.  They will control the pace playing at home tonight.

The Suns have a lot more firepower now that they are healthy with Grayson Allen back and healthy.  He and Collin Gillespie are 3-point snipers, and both play big minutes.  That frees up a lot of things for Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks offensively when opponents have to worry about that outside shooting.

The Suns have gone under the total in five consecutive games which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Heat are also coming off two of their worst offensive performances of the season in two of their last three games to keep this total lower than it should be.  This is a great opportunity to 'buy low' on a over.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso/Belmont OVER 148.5

This total of 148.5 is very low for a game involving Belmont.  The Bruins are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They have gone for 151 or more combined points in nine of their last 13 games overall.  

The Bruins rank 84th in adjusted tempo, 29th in average length of offensive possession and 64th in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

Vaplaraiso is 6-3 OVER in its last nine games overall.  The Beacons and their opponents have combined for at least 148 points in four of their last seven games.  They went for 164 combined points with Murray State, 171 with Murray State, and 156 with Northwestern recently.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kent State/Buffalo OVER 162.5

Kent State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Golden Flashes are 10-4 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 23rd in adjusted tempo, 103rd in adjusted offense and 249th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Flashes and their opponents have combined for at least 161 points in 13 of their 16 games this season.

Buffalo is a perfect 5-0 OVER in all home games this season.  The Bulls rank 100th in adjusted offense and 298th in adjusted defense.  Like Kent State, the Bulls are much better on offense than they are on defense, making this a perfect match for an OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers -9

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They are coming off consecutive losses to the Spurs on the road and the Bucks at home.  They have had the last two days off, so they will be rested, motivated and ready to go tonight against the lowly Sacramento Kings.

This is a terrible spot for the Kings, who are coming off a 111-98 upset win as 14.5-point dogs to the Rockets last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Kings are already short-handed playing without Sabonis (17.2 PPG, 12.3 RPG), Murray (14.6 PPG) and Schroder (13.0 PPG).  They aren't very equipped to handle these back-to-backs right now.  They will be running on fumes tonight.

The Lakers own the Kings, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings including a 125-101 win in their most recent meeting on December 28th.  The Lakers are 13-6 SU & 11-8 ATS on the road this season.  They are fully healthy outside Austin Reaves heading into this one.  Bet the Lakers Monday.

20* Texans/Steelers ESPN MNF No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 23-0 SU at home on Monday Night Football dating back to 1992 when there have been fans in the stands.  Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 23-5 SU on Monday Night Football home or away.

The Steelers managed to beat the Ravens 26-24 as 4.5-point home underdogs in Week 18 to win the division and get into the playoffs.  They did it without their best weapon in DK Metcalf (59 receptions, 850 yards, 6 TD), a compliment to Aaron Rodgers and his ability to get the most out of this offense.  Rodgers threw for 294 yards and a TD in the win.

Now Metcalf is back and the Steelers are as healthy as they have been on offense all season.  No. 2 receiver Calvin Austin had 3 receptions for 55 yards and a TD against the Ravens in his return from injury.  Kenneth Gainwell is an absolute weapon out of the backfield, catching 8 balls for 64 yards in the win.

The Steelers are also very healthy on defense right now and playing well.  They got TJ Watt back for the game against Baltimore, and he is good to go for the playoffs.  The Steelers are 6th in the NFL in sacks this season, and they are great at getting pressure on opposing QB's.  And I think that will be the difference in this game.

CJ Stroud plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.  He is also not very mobile and more of a pocket passer.  The Steelers will be getting after him for four quarters.  Meanwhile, the Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out quicker than any other QB.  That helps negate Houston's pass rush, which ranks 9th in the NFL in sacks per game.  The Steelers will come up with creative ways to take away Houston's biggest strength, which is their pass rush.

The home-field advantage for the Steelers for a Monday Night game isn't being factored into this line enough.  This line should be much closer to PK.  So getting +3.5 with the Steelers at home is a tremendous value, which I grabbed early in the week.  I still think there's plenty of value at the current line of +3 as of this writing, and I wouldn't be surprised if it closes +2.5.  I fully expect the Steelers to win this game outright.  Bet the Steelers Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a 116-115 (OT) loss at Toronto on Sunday.  They will be max motivated for revenge here in the rematch.  They also played without Joel Embiid and Paul George yesterday.  There's a good chance one or both return for this game, especially Embiid.

The Raptors played without RJ Barrett, Brandon Ingram and Jacob Poeltl yesterday.  Barrett and Poeltl have already been ruled out for the rematch, and Ingram is battling a hand injury that has him questionable again.

I question how motivated the Raptors will be to beat this team for a 2nd consecutive day.  They are also much worse off in the depth department than the 76ers, so they aren't equipped to handle these back-to-backs as well.  The 76ers are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.

Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points when revenging two straight losses where opponent scored 100 or more points when they are off an upset win over a division opponent as an underdog are 54-21 (72%) ATS since 1997.  The 76ers are 11-7 SU & 13-5 ATS in all road games this season.  Bet the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Hawks/Warriors OVER 235

The Atlanta Hawks have been an OVER team with or without Trae Young.  His absence hasn't slowed them down one bit as they rank 2nd in pace this season behind only the Miami Heat.  They will continue playing at a break-neck pace the rest of the way with CJ McCollum making his Atlanta debut tonight.

The Golden State Warriors are more of an OVER team as long as Steph Curry is in the lineup, and he is in the lineup and playing well right now.  The Warriors have scored at least 119 points in 12 of their last 15 games overall.  They will hang a big number on the Hawks to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Hawks and Warriors.  They have combined for at least 239 points in six of those eight meetings.  This total of 235 is too short for a game involving the Hawks and Warriors right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Chargers/Patriots NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 45

The Patriots have an elite offense and are fully healthy on offense heading into the playoffs.  They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.8 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 379.4 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play.  They will hang a big number on the Chargers in this one, and the Chargers will be forced to keep up in a shootout.

The Patriots do have inflated numbers defensive due to playing the weakest schedule of opposing QB's.  In their last two games against good QB's, the Patriots won 28-24 over Baltimore for 52 combined points and the Ravens stalled after Lamar Jackson got hurt.  They lost a 35-31 shootout to Josh Allen and the Bills for 66 combined points.

Justin Herbert is one of the best QB's in the NFL and his offensive line will be much healthier heading into the playoffs after the Chargers sat their starters last week.  He is also very mobile so the OL injuries haven't been much of a problem.  The Patriots have a great run defense, but their pass defense is their weakness, particularly their ability to get after opposing QB's.  They rank 25th in the NFL in sacks despite playing so many bad QB's and having big leads in most of their games.

This is a very short total for a game involving the Patriots.  The OVER is 9-2 in Patriots last 11 games overall.  The Patriots and their opponents have combined for at least 45 points in nine of their last 10 games, including 46 or more in eight of their last nine.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -1.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are 3-1 SU in their last four games overall and are playing well now that Giannis is back and healthy.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NBA overall.

The same cannot be said for the Nuggets, who are one of the most injury-plagued teams in the NBA right now.  They are without Jokic, Johnson and Valanciunas with Murray and Jones both questionable tonight.

Those injuries finally caught up to them with a 110-87 home loss to the Hawks in their last game.  The Nuggets just returned home from a 7-game road trip and are running on fumes.  They will be playing their 5th game in 8 days here and they haven't had consecutive days off since December 16-17.  Bet the Bucks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Thunder OVER 233.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace.  They are coming off two of their worst offensive performances of the season scoring 94 points on the Timberwolves and 99 points on the Pacers.  This gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on a Miami OVER tonight.

The Heat had scored at least 115 points in each of their previous six games and averaged 128.8 points per game in those six games.  They will get back to their high-scoring ways today.

The Thunder get a lot of guys back tonight including Shai and Holmgren.  They will be as close to full strength as they have been in a while, and a potent offensive team when that's the case.  They have scored at least 124 points in five of their last eight games overall and will hang a big number on the Heat to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* 49ers/Eagles NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3.5

The Philadelphia Eagles rested their starters in Week 18 knowing that the No. 2 seed was still available.  Had they won, they would have been the No. 2 seed, but they lost to the Commanders.  It shows the confidence of this team and this coaching staff to know that as long as they are healthy going into the playoffs, they can beat anyone home or away.

The Eagles have gone 11-6 this season with their 'C+ game'.  They have had a bit of a Super Bowl hangover, but they have also just not opened the entire playbook on offense preferring to control games with their defense.  They have a lot more to give, and that playbook will be opened for the playoffs, where the Eagles have thrived in recent seasons.

Jalen Hurts is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home in the playoffs outscoring opponents by a whopping 21 points per game.  Hurts is 31-5 SU as a home favorite in his career, including 13-1 SU in December or later.  Hurts hasn't used his legs much all season to try and stay healthy, but he will be putting it all on the line in the playoffs, and his legs are the key to opening up this offense and maximizing it.

Brock Purdy is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in his career as an underdog, failing to cover the spread by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Purdy will have his hands full against this Philadelphia defense, which profiles similarly to the Seattle Seahawks.  The Eagles can get pressure without blitzing, which was their key to winning the Super Bowl last year, especially shutting down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the finale.

Well, the 49ers just played the Seahawks last week with the NFC West title and No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line.  They lost 13-3 as they couldn't get anything going offensively.  It was an even bigger blowout than that 13-3 final showed as the Seahawks missed two field goals and kicked 4 of them.  The Seahawks outgained the 49ers 361 to 173, or by 188 total yards.  They also had 23 first downs compared to 9 for the 49ers.  I think the Eagles will be similarly dominant.

The Eagles are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They will get LT Lane Johnson back for the playoffs, and he is key to their success.  Philadelphia is 122-61-1 SU when Lane plays, and 18-29 SU when he doesn't.  The entire 2-deep for this Philadelphia defense is healthy, and that's bad news for the 49ers.  Kyle Shanahan hasn't scored more than 15 points against a Vic Fangio defense in his career as a head coach or coordinator.  He just can't figure it out, and he won't figure it out this weekend.

The worst unit of the entire playoffs is this banged up San Francisco 49ers defense.  They have been terrible without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, and they have the worst pressure rate in the NFL.  Things have gone from bad to worse.  All three starting LB's were injured against the Seahawks.  Warner's backup Bethune (94 tackles) suffered a season-ending injury, while both Winters (101 tackles) and Gifford (35 tackles) are questionable after not practicing most of the week.  CB Green (59 tackles, 9 PD) is questionable as well.  What a mess this defense is, and the Eagles will be able to do whatever they want against them.

Injuries are a problem for the 49ers on offense as well.  LT Trent Williams and WR Ricky Pearsall both missed the Seattle game.  Pearsall is very important because he is on the one reliable target that can get open consistently, but he re-aggravated his PCL injury and is doubtful.  Williams is a true game-time decision with a hamstring injury, and he won't be able to do the things he normally would as far as blocking downfield even if he does play.  Purdy has some of the worst weapons in the NFL right now with Jennings and Robinson and his top two receivers.   They couldn't get separation against Seattle, and they won't be able to get separation against these star CB's of the Eagles in DeJean and Mitchell.  The Eagles rank 8th allowing 189.8 passing yards per game and 1st in completion percentage at 56.8%.

The Eagles played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this season after winning the Super Bowl.  They had to face the Chiefs, Rams, Packers Lions, Bears, Chargers and Bills.  They held the Bills scoreless through 3 quarters on the road in the final game they tried to win in Week 17.  Nobody shuts down Buffalo at home, and they did just that.  The 49ers only faced five playoff teams all season.  They had a very soft schedule down the stretch that had them overvalued going into that Week 18 game against Seattle, and continues to have them overvalued in Wild Card weekend.  This game has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

20* Bills/Jaguars AFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Jacksonville +1

The Bills are getting too much respect for their playoff experience and what they've done in the past.  This matchup favors the Jaguars everywhere but at QB, but you could make the argument that Trevor Lawrence had the better season.  And with Josh Allen battling a toe injury that required X-Rays at the end of his two most recent games, he's clearly nowhere near 100%.

Buffalo kicker Matt Prater will be limited and didn't practice until late in the week.  Jacksonville has one of the best kickers in the NFL in Cam Little, who made both attempts of 67-plus this season.  He made 30-of-34 (88.2%) of his FG attempts this season including 8-of-10 from 50-plus.  He's an absolute weapon for them.

The Jaguars are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall with a +153 point differential.  They rank 1st in scoring at 33.6 points per game and 1st in scoring defense at 14.5 points per game during this span.  They did beat some bad teams during this stretch, but they also crushed two playoff teams in the Broncos 34-20 on the road and the Chargers 35-6 at home.  They are quietly playing better than anyone in the NFL heading into the playoffs.

Josh Allen is 7-0 at home in his playoff career, but those seven wins came against 40-year old Philip Rivers, Snoop Huntley, Mac Jones, Mason Rudolph, Skyler Thompson, Bo Nix in his first career playoff start and Lamar Jackson, who is 3-5 in the playoffs.  The Bills are 0-5 on the road in the playoffs under Sean McDermott.  In fact, the Bills are 0-8 on the road in the playoffs over the last 33 years with their last road win coming in 1993.

Both teams have strong offenses, but the difference in this game is the Jaguars have the much superior defense.  That's especially the case against the run.  Teams that can shut down James Cook and make the Bills have to throw the ball have the most success against them.  The Jaguars are equipped to do just that.  They rank 1st in the NFL allowing 85.6 rushing yards per game.  The Bills rank 28th allowing 136.2 rushing yards per game.

Injuries are a big problem for the Bills defensively.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, DE Jordan Phillips, LB Terrell Bernard (65 tackles) and CB Maxwell Hairston (18 tackles, 2 INT).  The Jaguars are loaded with weapons since the trade for WR Jakobi Myers and the return to health of TE Brenton Strange.  Parker Washington has benefited the most with a breakout.  And Lawrence is playing at an MVP level under head coach Liam Coen.  He has accounted for 19 touchdowns and only 1 INT in his last six games.  He also has two previous playoff starts under his belt and is ready for this moment.

The Bills had three of their worst games on the road this season.  They lost 24-14 at Atlanta as 3.5-point favorites, lost 30-13 at Miami as 8-point favorites, lost 23-19 at Houston as 5-point favorites against Davis Mills, and escaped with a 23-20 win as 10.5-point favorites at Cleveland in their final road game of the season.  I'll gladly back the better, hotter, healthier home team as underdogs in this one.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bills/Jaguars OVER 50.5

The Jaguars are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall with a +153 point differential.  They rank 1st in scoring at 33.6 points per game during this span.  The Jaguars are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall going for 51 or more combined points in six of those 10 games.  This total of 50.5 is too short for a game involving the Jaguars right now.

Injuries are a big problem for the Bills defensively.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, DE Jordan Phillips, LB Terrell Bernard (65 tackles) and CB Maxwell Hairston (18 tackles, 2 INT).  The Jaguars are loaded with weapons since the trade for WR Jakobi Myers and the return to health of TE Brenton Strange.  Parker Washington has benefited the most with a breakout.  And Lawrence is playing at an MVP level under head coach Liam Coen.  He has accounted for 19 touchdowns and only 1 INT in his last six games.

The Jaguars will hang a big number on this soft, beat up Bills defense, and the Bills will have to go to a more pass-happy approach to try and keep up.  That will greatly benefit the OVER.  The Bills are potent themselves offensively ranking 5th in scoring offense at 28.3 points per game, 4th in total offense at 376.3 yards per game and 4th at 6.1 yards per play.  They also know they won't be able to run it on Jacksonville's defense, which ranks 1st in the NFL against the run.  So they will be smart about it and keep the ball in Josh Allen's hands for four quarters.  This has shootout written all over it, especially with temps in the 60's and winds not being much of a factor.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Packers/Bears NFC Wild Card ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5

The Bears and Packers are both dead nuts OVER teams in their current form.  Both are very healthy on offense with two of the best offenses in the NFL when that's the case.  Both are very banged up on defense, and these are two of the worst defenses in the playoffs in their current state.

The books have adjusted this total down too much due to the weather report from an opener of 47.5 all the way down to 44.5 as of this writing.  The value is there to back the OVER, and I don't think the weather is going to be as bad as originally reported.  Temps will be in the 30's with 10-15 MPH sustained winds, and the wind direction is from goalpost to goalpost so it will actually favor offenses when they are downwind.  I expect both offenses to take advantage of that and be more pass-happy when they are with the wind.

The Packers felt they could trade away run-stuffer Frank Clark in the trade for Micah Parsons because they had an elite run-stuffer in DT Devonte Wyatt already.  But Wyatt is on season-ending IR and won't be back for the playoffs, and their run defense has been dreadful without him.  Their defense really took a turn for the worse when Micah Parsons tore his ACL in a Week 15 loss at Denver.

The Packers have allowed an average of 28.3 points per game and 391.5 yards per game in their last four games since losing Parsons.  Their run D was exposed when they allowed 307 rushing yards to the Ravens in Week 17.  The Bears want to run the football, and they will be able to against this patch work Green Bay defense.  NB Javon Bullard, LB Nick Niemann and DT Warren Brinson are all questionable, and they are thin in the secondary with CB's Hobbs, Melton and Hadden all on IR.

Chicago's defense has been torched the last three weeks for 384 yards against the Packers, 496 yards against the 49ers and 433 yards to the Lions.  They can't stop the run, either, allowing 192 rushing yards to the Packers and 200 to the 49ers.  They rank 29th in total defense at 361.8 yards per game, 29th at 6.2 yards per play and 29th at 5.0 yards per carry allowed.  They will be missing NB CJ Gardner-Johnson (66 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT), CB Kyler Gordon and a pair of backups in LB Ogbongbemiga and DE Shoyinka.

The Packers have an elite offense when they are as healthy as they are right now.  Jordan Love is back from a concussion and has lit up opposing defenses in the playoffs in the past.  Love has a 23-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He has his top 4 weapons at receiver all healthy in Watson, Doubs, Reed and Golden.  RB Jacobs says he is as healthy as he has been all season and is in line for a monster game against this poor Chicago run D.

The Bears have been potent offensively all season ranking 9th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game, 6th in total offense at 369.5 yards per game and 9th at 5.8 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in rushing at 144.5 yards per game, and the two-headed monster of Swift and Monangai are in line for big games against this soft Green Bay Run D.  And that's why I'm not concerned about any weather because both teams will be able to move the ball on the ground at will.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Bears on offense this week with WR Rome Odunze (44 receptions, 661 yards, 6 TD) making his return from a 5-game absence.  The Bears have been without Luther Burden for a few games down the stretch, but he's healthy and ready to go now too.  The Bears are fully healthy on offense for the first time in a long time, and dangerous when that's the case.

The first meeting this season saw the Packers win 28-21 for 49 combined points in Green Bay.  Both teams were a lot healthier on defense than they are now for that first meeting.  Both teams were hampered with injuries in the 2nd meeting, a 22-16 (OT) win by the Bears for just 38 combined points.  Jordan Love went out early for the Packers and so did Josh Jacobs.  That left Malik Willis and a handicapped Green Bay offense.

Without Love, the Packers really struggled in the red zone going 0-for-5 scoring touchdowns setting for 3 field goals and a couple turnovers.  The Bears didn't have Odunze OR Burden for that game and were extremely handicapped as a result without their usual weapons.  They were held to 6 points until late in the game as a result before exploding at the end.  Despite the injuries, both teams moved the ball fine as the Packers had 384 total yards and the Bears had 400 total yards.  So it was actually a very misleading final that should have been higher-scoring.

Given the health of both offenses compared to the health and poor play of both defenses, this total of 44.5 is too short.  I also like the fact that these are two offensive-minded head coaches in Johnson and LaFleur, and they will empty out the playbook with this being the playoffs.  Whichever team is trailing will always be able to make a comeback and push the tempo if necessary.  And both offenses should be very efficient in the red zone being able to run the ball on these soft run D's.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Heat -7.5

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They had their game against the Bulls postponed on Thursday due to condensation from a leak in the roof.  So they have had the last three days off and are champing at the bit to get back on the court.

The Heat are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only two losses coming to the Timberwolves, who are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  It was clearly a bad matchup for them.  They beat the Hawks by 15 and the Pistons by 6 in two road games during this stretch, while also rushing the Pacers by 26, the Nuggets by 24 and the Pelicans by 19 at home.

The Heat are as healthy as they have been all season as they have everyone available except perhaps Jaime Jaquez, who is listed as questionable.  Injuries are a big reason the Pacers are just 7-31 this season.  They are without Mathurin (17.8 PPG), Toppin (14.0 PPG) and Jackson (7.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG), plus Nembhard (17.2 PPG) is questionable.

This is a terrible spot for the Pacers.  They ended their 13-game losing streak with a 114-112 win at Charlotte last time out.  They took advantage of a tired Hornets team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Now that they finally ended that losing streak, they will relax.  The Pacers are also a tired team not having consecutive days off since before Christmas.  The Heat will run them out of the gym similar to their 142-116 win over the Pacers on December 27th in their most recent meeting.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* Big West Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Northridge/Fullerton OVER 174

Cal State Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Titans rank 7th in adjusted tempo, 5th in average length of offensive possession and 242nd in adjusted defense.  They are 9-6 OVER in all games this season and haven't gone to OT once.

Cal-State Northridge will gladly run with them.  The Matadors rank 10th in adjusted tempo, 19th in average length of offensive possession and 234th in adjusted defense.  They are 10-5 OVER in all games this season despite not once going to OT.  They are also 6-1 OVER in road games.  The books have failed to set this total high enough given how many possession will be in this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CAA PLAY OF THE DAY on Campbell/Elon OVER 160

Elon is 10-4 OVER in all games this season including 6-1 OVER in home games.  What makes the Phoenix such an OVER team is ranking 77th in adjusted offense but just 294th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 160 or more combined points with their opponents in 11 of their 16 games this season.

Campbell is the perfect OVER partner for Elon.  The Camels rank 51st in adjusted tempo, 157th in adjusted offense but just 249th in adjusted defense.  So these are two teams that are much better on offense than they are on defense.  The Camels are 9-6 OVER in all games this season finishing with 158 or more combined points in 11 of their 17 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Auburn ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 169.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off today when Arkansas visits Auburn.  This game has the makings of one of the biggest shootouts of the day, and it's a night game on National TV on ESPN so both teams will be extra amped for it.

Auburn is 11-4 OVER in all games this season.  The Tigers have an elite offense ranking 13th in adjusted offense but one of the worst defenses in the SEC ranking 106th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 170 or more combined points in four of their last five games overall, including 204 with Georgia and 178 with Texas A&M in their last two.

Arkansas is 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall going for 177 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The Razorbacks rank 25th in adjusted tempo, 21st in average length of offensive possession and 12th in adjusted offense.  Calipari has the Razorbacks playing efficient offense at a break-neck pace this season.  

The Razorbacks have scored 85 or more points in six consecutive games, including against some very good defensive teams in Texas Tech, Houston, Tennessee and Ole Miss.  They are scoring on everyone, and they will hang a big number on this poor Auburn defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big West PLAY OF THE DAY on UC-Davis/Cal Poly OVER 167.5

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in adjusted tempo, 8th in average length of offensive possession and 223rd in adjusted defense.  The Mustangs are 9-6 OVER in all games thsi season and coming off a 95-90 loss to Northridge for 185 combined points.

UC Davis is a dead nuts OVER team as well going 9-4 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 110th in adjusted tempo, 65th in average length of offensive possession, 133rd in adjusted offense and 212th in adjusted defense.  The Aggies are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 160 or more combined points in six of their last seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Rams/Panthers NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Los Angeles -10

The Los Angeles Rams are the most complete team in the NFL.  They have the best offense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring offense at 30.5 points per game, 1st in total offense at 394.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  The Rams rank 10th in scoring defense at 20.4 points per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play allowed.

The Carolina Panthers are the worst team in the playoffs, getting in with an 8-9 record by winning the tiebreaker in a 3-way tie with the Bucs and Falcons for 1st place in the NFC South.  The Panthers rank 27th in scoring offense at 18.3 points per game, 27th in total offense at 295.6 yards per game and 28th at 5.1 yards per play.  They have a mediocre defense at best ranking 19th allowing 5.6 yards per play.

I like the fact that the Rams went for it in Week 18 knowing that they needed a win to get to play the Panthers in the first round.  That's a big step down in class from the Eagles, who they would have had to face had they lost in Week 18.  They are in playoff mode, and now reinforcements are on the way in time for the playoffs.

WR Davante Adams (60 receptions, 789 yards, 14 TD) led the NFL in TD receptions despite missing the last three games.  The Rams were extra cautious with him and he was pissed off to not be playing down the stretch.  He will be extra motivated now in his return, and he will make a big impact on this offense.  Defensively, the Rams get back CB Quentin Lake (61 tackles, 1 INT, 10 PD) after he missed six games this season.  They are near full strength heading into the playoffs and one of the healthiest teams in the league.

The Panthers have a -69 point differential on the season.  That is the 3rd-worst mark in NFL history for a team that won its division.  They were blown out on the regular losing by 16 to the Jaguars, by 29 to the Patriots, by 31 to the Bills, by 10 to the Saints, by 11 to the 49ers and by 17 to the Seahawks.  Six of their nine losses came by double-digits.

The Rams have the 2nd-best point differential (+172) in the NFL trailing only the Seahawks.  They went 12-5 this season and all five losses were coin flip games.  Seven of their 12 wins came by 14 points or more, so they blew teams out on the regular.  And this game has blowout written all over it Saturday.

Yes, the Panthers upset the Rams 31-28 as 9.5-point home dogs on November 30th earlier this season.  But that was one of the coin flip games the Rams lost, and it was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  The Rams were -3 in turnovers and all three were killers.  They had a tipped pass intercepted in the Carolina end zone that took 7 points off the board.  Their very next drive, Stafford threw a Pick 6.  And when they were in FG range driving for the game-winning score, Stafford fumbled to end the game.  That was basically a 17-point swing at minimum in the Panthers' favor on those three turnovers.  That's not going to happen again.

What is repeatable is the Rams moving the ball up and down the field on this Panthers defense both on the ground and through the air.  The Rams rushed for 152 yards and 7.2 per carry on 21 attempts against the Panthers in that first meeting.  They also threw for 227 yards nd 7.6 per attempt.  They held the Panthers to 4.1 yards per attempt on the ground.  Carolina also went 3-for-3 on 4th down conversions in that first meeting, two of which resulted in 30-plus yard TD's. Literally everything went right for the Panthers, and they were still life and death with the Rams.  The cream will rise to the top in the rematch.

The Rams were also fat and happy going into that game against the Panthers in the regular season riding a 6-game winning streak with the last three coming against playoff contenders in the 49ers, Seahawks and Bucs.  I think they were flat in that game.  They won't be flat in the rematch, in fact they will be max motivated for revenge and with this being the playoffs.  Teams to lose to a non-divisional opponent in Week 12 or later and to face them again in the playoffs are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS covering the spread by an average of 7.2 points per game.

Sean McVay is 34-10 SU & 26-18 ATS as a road favorite with the Rams, including 27-6 SU and 19-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or more, and 19-2 SU & 12-9 ATS as a road favorite of more than 4 points.  McVay is also 18-11-2 ATS in road games in the Eastern time zone.  The Rams will mount a big lead early and be able to sustain it with their ground attack.  Bryce Young won't be able to make the plays to keep it close.  QB's making their first career playoff start like Young against a QB who has playoff experience are 20-39-1 ATS since 2002.  Bet the Rams Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma State +18.5

You're paying a tax to back the Iowa State Cyclones now after opening 15-0 SU & 9-6 ATS this season.  That's especially the case after opening Big 12 play with a pair of wins and covers over West Virginia and Baylor, two of the worst teams in the conference.

Oklahoma State will offer some resistance here.  The Cowboys are coming off a 87-76 home win over UCF as 2-point favorites on Tuesday.  They have had the last three days off, while the Cyclones have only had the last two days off since winning at Baylor on Wednesday, plus the travel in between.

Few teams have dominated Iowa State like Oklahoma State has.  In fact, the Cowboys are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cyclones with one of those losses coming in OT.  Asking the Cyclones to beat them by 19-plus points to beat us is asking too much today.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Florida/Tulsa OVER 164.5

Tulsa is 9-4 OVER in all games this season including 4-1 OVER at home.  The Golden Hurricane rank 41st in adjusted offense but just 143rd in adjusted defense.  They are an elite shooting team ranking 20th in effective FG percentage (57.8%) and 5th in 3-point percentage (41.2%).

South Florida is 8-6 OVER in all games this season including 3-1 OVER in road games.  What makes the Bulls an OVER team is ranking 18th in adjusted tempo and 17th in average length of offensive possession.  They are also a solid offensive team ranking 78th in adjusted offense.

What's keeping this total lower than it should be is both teams coming off games against teams that play extremely slow.  They both played North Texas in their last game and went under the total.  North Texas ranks 338th in adjusted tempo, 285th in adjusted offense and 34th in adjusted defense.  This game will play out much differently.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big East Saturday Total DOMINATOR on St. John's/Creighton UNDER 156.5

Creighton ranks 231st in adjusted tempo and 46th in adjusted defense.  The Bluejays are much more of a defensive team this season with one of the worst offenses of the Greg McDermott era.  This is a very high total for a game involving the Bluejays, who are 11-5 UNDER in all games this season with 155 or fewer combined points in 11 of those 16 games.

St. John's is 10-5 UNDER in all games this season.  The Red Storm rank 21st in adjusted defense and are once again a dominant defensive team under Rick Pitino.  They are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall finishing with 155 or fewer combined points in seven of those nine games.

St. John's and Creighton have combined for 152 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 156.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Denver/South Dakota OVER 172.5

Denver is a perfect 15-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last 12 lined games.  This total of 172.5 is too short for a game involving the Pioneers right now.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 80th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 362nd in adjusted defense.  They are the 4th-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

South Dakota is the perfect OVER partner for Denver.  The Coyotes rank 43rd in adjusted tempo this season and 341st in adjusted defense.  They play fast and they play no defense.

South Dakota is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall going for 185 combined points with St. Thomas, 182 with Kansas State, 182 with Prairie View, 185 with Wyoming and 176 with Northern Colorado.  This total of 172.5 is also short in a game involving the Coyotes right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Timberwolves/Cavs NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 239.5

NBA players aren't used to playing this early in the day.  This game will tip at 1:10 EST this afternoon.  Players will be sleep walking through the start of it, and it will take them a while to get going.  I love betting UNDERS in these early games as a result.

I also love betting UNDERS in quick rematches, which we have here.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Minnesota beat Cleveland 131-122 on Thursday in Minnesota, and now they will play each other again in Cleveland just two days later here Saturday.

Cleveland shot 53% as a team on Thursday and will not shoot that well again.  Minnesota shot 57% as a team and 20-of-38 (53%) from 3-point range, and that certainly won't happen again.  Coaches will make the necessary adjustments and the defenses will win out in the rematch.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston -3

Houston is battle-tested having faced the 76th-ranked schedule in the country with wins over the likes of Auburn, Notre Dame, Arkansas and Texas Tech.  The Cougars rank 27th in adjusted offense and 6th in adjusted defense and are once again one of the best teams in the country at 14-1 this season with more experience than they are even accustomed to.  Going into Baylor and coming out with a win today is no big deal to them.

Baylor has struggled time and time again when stepping up in class with four losses already to St. John's, Memphis, TCU and Iowa State.  They weren't very competitive in any of the four games with all four coming by 6 points or more, including a 10-point home loss to Iowa State on Wednesday.

What kills the Bears is they are a terrible defensive team ranking 84th in adjusted defense.  Houston is 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in its last three meetings with Baylor.  This is a short number to be laying for by far the superior team in this matchup today folks.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on DePaul +19.5

This is a terrible spot for the UConn Huskies.  They are coming off a 103-98 (OT) road win at Providence on Wednesday.  They have had just two days to recover, and they will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days here as well.  I expect them to be flat as a pancake hosting DePaul today.

The Blue Demons are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS this season, and I really like what they have done lately.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with consecutive home wins over Xavier and Georgetown, as well as a 5-point road loss at Villanova as 12.5-point dogs in their last three games.

The lone non-cover during this 7-game stretch came in a 72-54 home loss to UConn on December 21st as 12.5-point dogs.  Now they get their shot at quick revenge here just three weeks later.  The Huskies won't be motivated at all to beat this team by margin again.  Bet DePaul Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Indiana Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -3.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are overvalued now after a 15-0 start to the season.  They have played a home-heavy schedule and have played just two true road games all season.  This will be their toughest road game yet.

Indiana is 10-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 25.9 points per game.  That includes Big Ten wins over Washington by 10 and Penn State by 41.  It will be a very hostile atmosphere today with ranked, unbeaten Nebraska coming to town and there are few better home-court advantages than Assembly Hall when it's a big game.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Rockets/Blazers UNDER 221.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team without star C Alperen Sengun (21.8 PPG, 6.5 APG).  The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current form without Holiday (16.7 PPG, 8.3 APG), Grant (20.0 PPG) and Murray (6.1 PPG).

The Rockets are 4-0 UNDER in their last four games overall going for 216 combined points with the Nets, 214 with the Mavericks, 197 with the Suns and 205 with the Blazers.  The Blazers are 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games overall going for 22 or fewer combined points in seven of those 11 games.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be a rematch from Wednesday when the Blazers beat the Rockets 103-102 at home for 205 combined points.  That total was set at 221, and this total in the rematch is set at 221.5.  Oddsmakers have failed to adjust it down, and we'll take advantage.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Phoenix Suns ML +108

The Phoenix Suns are as healthy as they've been all season and proving they are a legit contender in the West when that's the case.  They have gone 7-2 SU in their last nine games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall as one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now.

After upsetting the Thunder 108-105 as 11.5-point home dogs, the Suns came back the very next night and lost on a buzzer-beater at Houston by 3 as 8.5-point dogs.  In what was supposed to be a flat spot for them, they crushed the Grizzlies 117-98 as 5.5-point favorites last time out.  This team is locked in night in and night out.

They will certainly be locked in hosting the New York Knicks tonight.  This is a tired, struggling, banged up Knicks team that should not be favored on the road tonight.  The Knicks are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, and 2-9-1 ATS in their 12 games since winning the NBA Cup.  They lost by 31 at Detroit, by 11 at home to Philadelphia as 4.5-point favorites, and by 12 at home to the Hawks as 6.5-point favorites in three of their last four games.

The Knicks are without Josh Hart right now and his importance to this team cannot be overstated based on recent results without him.  The Knicks have one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA as they are 16-4 SU at home, but just 7-9 SU on the road.  The Suns are 12-5 SU at home.  The Knicks will be playing their 5th game in 8 days and haven't had consecutive days off since the NBA Cup in mid-December.  They are running on fumes right now.  Bet the Suns Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Nuggets OVER 232

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team with or without Trae Young.  They rank 2nd in pace despite playing most of the season without Young.  Their philosophy is to play as fast as possible, and they will continue to do that moving forward.

The Denver Nuggets have been a dead nuts OVER team all season going 24-13 OVER in all games.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 24th in defensive rating.  They still have plenty of firepower without Nikola Jokic, and they have to play more small ball now without both Jokic and Valanciunas, which makes them an OVER team moving forward.

The Nuggets went for 242 combined points with the Nets, 240 at the end of regulation with the 76ers and 224 with the Celtics in their last three games without Jokic.  The Celtics play at the slowest tempo in the NBA, so that won't be an issue tonight against the Hawks.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Hawks and Nuggets with a whopping 251 or more combined points in each of the last five meetings.  They combined for 267 in their lone meeting this season.  This total of 232 is way too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 230

This game between the Thunder and Grizzlies will be played with mostly backups for both teams.  The result should be a low-scoring, ugly defensive battle that stays well UNDER this total of 230 tonight.

The Thunder will be without the NBA's leading scorer in Gilgeous-Alexander (31.9 PPG), plus Holmgren (18.2 PPG), Hartenstein (11.2 PPG) and Wallace (7.5 PPG) tonight.  The Grizzlies will be without leading scorer Morant (19.0 PPG) and Edey (13.6 PPG), plus Coward (13.7 PPG) is questionable.

The Grizzlies are 3-0 UNDER in their last three games overall going for 215 combined points with the Suns and 211 with the Spurs in their last two.  The Thunder are 4-1 UNDER in their last five games overall and would be 5-0 if not for going to OT with the Jazz last time out.  They have gone for 219, 225, 213 and 221 combined points in the four games that didn't go to OT.

The UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Grizzlies and Thunder.  They have gone for 229 or fewer combined points in seven of their last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Akron/Bowling Green OVER 164.5

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team going 8-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Zips rank 36th in adjusted tempo, 18th in adjusted offense and just 196th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 94.5 points per game this season.

Bowling Green is a dead nuts OVER team as well with an elite offense.  The Falcons rank 157th in adjusted tempo and 125th in adjusted offense.  They are scoring 89.3 points per game. and they have gone for 176 or more combined points with their opponents in each of their last four games coming in.  

That includes a 96-93 loss to Kent State for 189 combined points last time out, a team that profiles very similarly to Akron with an elite offense and terrible defense that plays fast.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Zips and Falcons.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Oregon/Indiana Peach Bowl No-Brainer on Indiana -4

Curt Cignetti is putting together the greatest 2-year turnaround in college football history.  He has proven last year's trip to the 12-team playoff was no fluke by going 14-0 this season and on the verge of reaching the National Championship Game.  The Indiana Hoosiers aren't just winning, they are dominating opponents.

Indiana is outscoring opponents by 31.3 points per game during this 14-0 run.  They are outgaining opponents by 215.8 yards per game and 2.5 yards per play.  There is nothing fluky about this run, beating Oregon on the road 30-20 in the first meeting, upsetting Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship Game and becoming the only team to win off a bye (1-7) in the history of the 12-team playoff when they crushed Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl last week.

Oregon has benefited from a soft schedule and some breaks to get here.  The Ducks only beat Group of 5 James Madison 51-34 in the playoff opener while allowing a whopping 509 total yards.  And last week's 23-0 win over Texas Tech was very misleading.  The Red Raiders gave that game away by committing four turnovers.  Their rust showed, especially QB Behren Morton.  The Big 12 as a whole was down this season, so that win over the Big 12's best isn't that impressive.

Now they must face the Big Ten's best, a team they already got dominated by at home.  Not only did Indiana beat Indiana 30-20, they did so by overcoming a pick-6 by Heisman Trophy QB Fernando Mendoza.  The Hoosiers held the Ducks to just 267 total yards in the win.  It was an even more dominant result than the final score showed, and it was in Autzen Stadium on the road.  Now the Hoosiers will be playing in Atlanta here in the Peach Bowl and will no question have the home-field advantage with more fans in attendance.

Indiana held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards on 26 carries in the big Ten Championship Game and Alabama to 23 rushing yards on 17 carries in the Rose Bowl.  They have allowed 92 or fewer rushing yards in 12 of their last 13 games.  They are elite against the run, making this a nightmare matchup for Oregon, which needs to be able to run the ball to set up the pass.  They won't be able to against Indiana.  The Hoosiers have ran the ball on everyone, and they will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Bet Indiana Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Cleveland State/Oakland OVER 172.5

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all games this season.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 40th in adjusted tempo, 55th in adjusted offense and 306th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 83.3 points per game and allowing 83.5 points per game and haven't played an OT game yet.  They've also done it against the 11th-toughest schedule in the country.

Cleveland State is also a dead nuts OVER team going 8-5 OVER in all games this season while not playing a single OT game, either.  The Vikings rank 135th in adjusted tempo and 354th in adjusted defense.  But they are a great shooting team ranking 30th in 3-point percentage (37.6%) and attempt them at the 21st-highest rate in the country on 49.5% of their possessions.

Oakland's three home games this season went 3-0 OVER going for 193 combined points with IPFW, 195 points with Toledo and 169 with Robert Morris, which ranks 309th in adjusted tempo and is an under team.  Cleveland State profiles more similarly to Toledo and IPFW.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Oakland and Cleveland State, and 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on Dallas Mavericks -7.5

The spot couldn't be worse for the Utah Jazz tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a gutting 129-125 (OT) loss at Oklahoma City against the defending champs last night.  They will have nothing left in the tank for the Dallas Mavericks when they return home tonight.

Starters Markkanen (44 minutes) and George (43 minutes) could rest tonight after playing big minutes and carrying the load last night.  Nurkic (33 minutes) is already downgraded to questionable, as is Ace Bailey.  Even if everyone played I still expect a poor performance from the Jazz, who have lost five consecutive games coming in with four of those losses coming by 9 points or more.

The Mavericks are coming off consecutive wins over the Rockets and Kings and are relatively healthy right now.  They have Davis and Flagg both balling out.  They are also a very rested team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.  They want revenge from a 140-133 (OT) loss at Utah on December 15th in their last meeting and they will get it tonight in blowout fashion.  Bet the Mavericks Thursday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Denver/South Dakota State OVER 160.5

Denver is a perfect 14-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last 11 lined games.  This total of 160.5 is too short for a game involving the Pioneers right now.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 82nd in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 361st in adjusted defense.  They are the 5th-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

South Dakota State is a perfect 5-0 OVER in its last five games overall finishing with 159 or more combined points in four of those five games.  That includes 175 combined points with Milwaukee and 170 combined points with Arizona.

The Jackrabbits rank 160th in adjusted offense but just 234th in adjusted defense.  Both teams also rank in the Top 160 in adjusted tempo.  This game figures to be yet another shootout involving the Pioneers tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* CFB Playoff GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami -3

Miami has been an absolute wagon down the stretch with six straight wins with four of those coming by 17 points or more.  The defense has been elite holding opponents to 9.7 points per game in those six games.  That includes their 10-3 road win at Texas A&M in the first round of the 12-team playoff.  The Hurricanes outgained the Aggies 5.7 to 4.3 yards per play in the win.

If everyone though that was a fluke, they proved them wrong again by manhandling Ohio State on both sides of the football in a dominant 24-14 win in the quarterfinals.  They held the Buckeyes to 45 rushing yards on 24 attempts, an average of just 1.9 yards per carry.  

Miami may have the best defensive line in the country.  The Hurricanes rank 5th allowing 84 rushing yards per game and 6th at 2.8 yards per carry.  They are 3rd in the country averaging 3.3 sacks per game.  They had 7 sacks against Texas A&M and 5 sacks against Ohio State.

The Hurricanes rode Mark Fletcher to 172 rushing yards in a windy day in College Station against Texas A&M.  He had 90 rushing yards on 19 carries against Ohio State.  After facing those two defenses and handling them, the Hurricanes actually take a big step down in class here against this suspect Ole Miss defense.

The Rebels rank 38th in total defense at 340.1 yards per game, 41st at 5.2 yards per play, 62nd allowing 146.1 rushing yards per game and 49th allowing 4.2 yards per carry.  Georgia's RB Nate Frazier had 86 rushing yards on 15 carries before leaving with an injury.  That really changed the game and allowed the Rebels to come back in the 2H as they finally got a few stops on Georgia in a 39-34 upset win.

Georgia's weakness was getting after the opposing QB with pressure, and Ole Miss was able to take advantage of it with Trinidad Chambliss making all kinds of plays off script deep down the field.  Those plays won't be there against this Miami defense, which will get home much more than Georgia and Tulane did.  And Miami's defense will be the difference in this game.

Carson Beck will have his best game of the playoffs yet as he takes a big step down in class here against this Ole Miss defense.  Beck hasn't had to do much because the Hurricanes have been so dominant with their defense and running game.  They will control the game again for four quarters with their defense and running game, and Beck will make the plays necessary which he has thus far.  

Ole Miss is dealing with a ton of distractions with coaches spending time game-planning for the playoffs while also recruiting at LSU for Lane Kiffin.  Several of their coaches won't be allowed to coach in this game, and really only offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss is still with the team.  They've had extra time coming into their last two games, but now they are on a short week here after playing last Thursday, while Miami has an extra day of prep playing last Wednesday.  That's a small advantage that could make a big difference in this game.

I also think Ole Miss despite being distracted has benefited from having played Tulane twice AND Georgia twice.  They already had the scouting reports on both teams, which made the game planning much easier.  They have nothing on Miami and only 6 days to get ready for the Hurricanes.  They won't be ready for the physicality the Hurricane brings as they will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Their defense is also great at taking away the quick passing game that Ole Miss relies on.  The Hurricanes are the better, more rested and focused team and it will show on the field in the Fiesta Bowl.  Bet Miami Thursday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Delaware/Sam Houston State OVER 141.5

Sam Houston State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bearkats are 8-3 OVER in all lined games this season.  They have played 14 games overall and have gone for 148 or more combined points in 13 of them, making for a 13-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 141.5-point total.

This total of 141.5 is way too low for a game involving the Bearkats.  They rank 38th in adjusted tempo, 25th in average length of offensive possession and 107th in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home, which is huge in this game with Delaware.

The Blue Hens rank just 350th in adjusted tempo, which is why this total is so low.  But they will be forced to play more to Sam Houston's State's style.  We've seen them play higher-scoring games with other teams like Sam Houston State that push the tempo.  They combined for 153 points with BYU, 155 with Iona and 154 with Northridge.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa State/Baylor OVER 154

Baylor is 8-4 OVER in all games this season including 6-1 OVER at home.  What makes the Bears such a dead nuts OVER team is that they rank 12th in adjusted offense but just 96th in adjusted defense.  They are also 116th in adjusted tempo.

The Bears are averaging 93.1 points per game this season including 102.9 points per game at home and haven't played an OT game all season.  They will get their points, but they will also give up a ton, especially tonight.

Iowa State is playing as fast as they ever have under T.J. Otzelberger and it has made a big difference for them.  They are an elite team, so more possessions is better for them.  They rank 127th in adjusted tempo and 55th in average length of offensive possession.

Iowa State is scoring 89.6 points per game and ranks 5th in adjusted offense.  The Cyclones are 2nd in effective FG percentage (60.7%) and 2nd in 3-point percentage (41.9%).  They will light up this weak Baylor defense tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +2.5

The Brooklyn Nets have quietly gone 8-6 SU in their last 14 games overall seven outright upset victories.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and playing better than most realize.  They should not be home underdogs to the struggling Orlando Magic tonight.

The Magic are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall and coming off a 120-112 upset loss at Washington as 7.5-point favorites last night.  They really miss both Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner as both are two of the most underrated players in the NBA.

Now the Magic are running on fumes playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  Being short-handed makes this spot that much more difficult.  The Nets come in on two days' rest and will be the much fresher team as a result.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* Clippers/Knicks NBA ANNIHILATOR on New York -4.5

I love the spot for the New York Knicks tonight.  They will be max motivated coming off a season high 4-game losing streak and a 31-point loss in Detroit.  This is the perfect time to 'buy low' on the Knicks, who are now healthy outside of Josh Hart.

This is the perfect time to 'sell high' on the Clippers after going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But they played seven of those eight games at home.  They are just 4-13 SU on the road this season.

Derrick Jones Jr. was playing well during this run but got hurt and is now out.  James Harden is dealing with a shoulder injury, and they remain without Bogdan Bogdanovic.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +10.5

Providence has opened Big East play with three straight nail-biting games.  After losing 113-110 (2 OT) at Butler and 72-67 at home to Seton Hall, the Friars got their first conference win in impressive fashion upsetting St. John's 77-71 as 14-point road dogs.

Now the Friars are catching double-digits again at home against the UConn Huskies tonight, and this line is too high.  They are 6-1 SU at home this season and it will be a raucous atmosphere with the Huskies coming to town.

UConn has benefited from an extremely soft Big East schedule to open with home wins over Butler and Marquette, and road wins over DePaul and Xavier.  This will be their toughest conference test yet, and I don't expect them to handle it well.  Bet Providence Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on VCU -1.5

Saint Louis is overvalued after a 13-1 start this season against the 345th-ranked schedule in the country.  The Billikens have played just one true road game all season, and 11 of their 14 games were on their home floor.

I love fading teams to start conference play in road games when they haven't played many or any road games up to this point.  It's a shock to the system, and this will be by far and away their toughest game of the season to this point.

VCU is 11-4 this season against the 205th-ranked schedule.  The Rams went to the wire with Utah State, NC State and New Mexico in those three losses by 3, 6 and 3 points, respectively.  The only game they weren't competitive was against Vanderbilt, which is ranked 6th in KenPom and 14-0 on the season.

The Rams are 8-1 at home this season outscoring opponents by 20.9 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the Atlantic 10.  VCU is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with St. Louis.  Bet VCU Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +6

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 125-115 home loss to the Timberwolves just three days ago on January 3rd.  It was a rare loss for the Heat, who are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes upset road wins in both road games at Detroit by 6 and at Atlanta by 15.

A big reason for their resurgence is a return to health, most notably getting two key role players in Jovic and Larsson back on the court.  Now Tyler Herro is expected back tonight, and the only player they are missing is Jaime Jaquez Jr.

This is a terrible spot for the Timberwolves.  They return home from a 4-game road trip that took a lot out of them.  The Timberwolves will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here, and now Anthony Edwards has been downgraded to questionable due to injury management.  When players are downgraded to questionable, more times than not they do not play.  I like Miami either way.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Pelicans OVER 240

Two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Los Angeles Lakers visit the New Orleans Pelicans.  The Lakers rank 26th in defensive rating while the Pelicans rank 27th.  This figures to be a shootout tonight, and this total has been set too low.

The Lakers beat the Pelicans 133-121 for 254 combined points in their lone meeting this season.  The Pelicans didn't even have Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole in that contest, and both are back healthy now and dead nuts OVER players who are all offense and no defense.  The Lakers didn't have LeBron James, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCF/Oklahoma State OVER 173

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Cowboys rank 7th in adjusted tempo, 30th in average length of offensive possession, 60th in adjusted offense and 95th in adjusted defense.

The Cowboys are 9-5 OVER in all games this season and have yet to play an OT game.  They are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall going for 161 or more combined points in all 10 games, and 170 or more combined points in seven of them.  In their last three games, they went for 182 combined points with Texas Tech, 180 with Bethune-Cookman and 183 with Fullerton.

UCF also likes to play fast ranking 109th in adjusted tempo and 35th in average length of offensive possession.  The Knights are 23rd in adjusted offense but just 88th in adjusted defense.  They won't mind running with Oklahoma State at all in what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the season given the profile of both teams.

In their first meeting last season, the Cowboys won 104-95 at home for 199 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the first meeting of 2026.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bowling Green/Kent State OVER 155.5

Kent State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Golden Flashes rank 20th in adjusted tempo, 44th in average length of offensive possession, 122nd in adjusted offense and just 191st in adjusted defense.  They are 91st in effective FG percentage (53.7%) on offense and 284th (54.1%) on defense.

Bowling Green also likes to play faster ranking 144th in adjusted tempo.  The Mean Green rank 27th in average length of defensive possession at 16.1 seconds allowing opponents to get shots up fast, which is something that will play right into Kent State's hands.

Bowling Green's last three games have been very high-scoring going for 201 combined points with UMass in OT in a game that was tied 86-86 at the end of regulation for 172 combined points.  They went for 176 combined points with Miami Ohio and 191 with Siena Heights.

Kent State is 8-4 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Golden Flashes and their opponents have combined for at least 161 points in 11 of their 14 games this season.  This total of 155.5 is way too low for a game involving Kent State.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +9.5

The Florida Gators are overrated after winning the national title last season.  They lost all their star guards off that team and just aren't nearly as good this season because of it.  They are 9-5 SU & 4-10 ATS this season, consistently laying too many points.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.

Georgia is one of the most underrated teams in the country and vastly improved this season.  The Bulldogs are off to a 13-1 start with their lone loss coming to Clemson in OT.  In their lone road true game this season, they crushed Florida State 107-73.  Florida beat Florida sState 78-76 at home to give these teams a common opponent.

Former Florida head coach Mike White is out to get his former team, and these games tend to go down to the wire.  Four of the last five meetings were decided by 5 points or fewer.  This number is too big tonight as the Bulldogs are lacking the respect they deserve and will earn it tonight.  Bet Georgia Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225.5

The Clippers are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 29th in pace and are never in a hurry.  The Warriors rank 18th in pace and 5th in defensive rating this season.  This game will be played at a snail's pace with some elite defense.

The Clippers will be without Bogdanovic and Jones Jr., and now Harden popped up on the injury report as questionable today.  They will be lacking a lot of firepower without all three of these guys if Harden sits, but I like the UNDER either way.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Warriors and Clippers with 216 or fewer combined points in four of those five meetings.  That includes a 98-79 home win by the Warriors for just 177 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  The only game that went over went to OT.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia 76ers -14.5

This is a terrible spot for the Denver Nuggets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 127-115 loss in Brooklyn last night.  They will also be playing their 6th consecutive road game and their 9th game in 15 days overall.

The Nuggets were already without Nikola Jokic, Cam Johnson and Jonas Valancunas due to injury.  Murray, Braun, Gordon and Hardaway Jr. all played last night against the Nets, and all four will sit tonight.  The means they will be without 7 of their top 8 scorers tonight!

The 76ers are playing their best basketball of the season right now largely due to being as healthy as they have been all year.  Maxey, Embiid, Edecombe, George, Grimes and Barlow are all healthy and playing well.  Nobody has a minutes restriction anymore.

The 76ers have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall winning 139-136 at Memphis, 123-108 at Dallas and 130-119 at New York.  The 76ers have had a lot of time off and will be playing on their 7th game in 16 days.  They will roll the short-handed Nuggets tonight.  Bet the 76ers Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Raptors OVER 233.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 17-9 OVER in their last 26 games overall finishing with 245 or more combined points in 15 of their last 25 games.  It doesn't matter if Trae Young is there or not, they still play fast, efficient offense and poor defense.

The Raptors profile as more of an OVER team right now playing more small ball without C Jakob Poeltl.  They just got RJ Barrett back from injury, and their offense is much more efficient with him running the show.

These teams just played on Saturday with the Raptors beating the Hawks 134-117 for 251 combined points.  We have 17.5 points to spare in the rematch here with this total set at 233.5.  Oddsmakers have once again failed to set this high enough.

The Raptors and Hawks have combined for at least 241 points in six of their last eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore -3

The Baltimore Ravens are the much better team than the Pittsburgh Steelers, period.  Even though they lost the first meeting 27-22 at home a few weeks ago, the Ravens were the better team in that game.  They will be out to prove it this week and win the AFC North, which would be the ultimate revenge.

The Ravens outgained the Steelers 420 to 318, or by 102 total yards, in that 27-22 loss on December 7th.  The refs took a TD off the board, and the Ravens were done in by the refs the entire game to be honest.  They kept driving deep into Pittsburgh territory but got nothing out of it.

Now the Ravens are fully healthy in the rematch and by far the much healthier team coming into this one.  They are coming off a 41-24 road win at Green Bay to keep their hopes alive thanks to 200-plus rushing yards and 4 TD from Derrick Henry.  You can bet they are going to ride Henry into the ground in this game.  They also have extra rest after playing last Saturday night.

Lamar Jackson is back healthy for this one and should be as healthy as he has been in a long time after sitting out last week.  The only starter they are missing on offense is WR Rashod Bateman, but he's replaceable.  They are fully healthy on defense with only CB Marlon Humphrey listed questionable.

The Steelers could not overcome the suspension to DK Metcalf (59 receptions, 850 yards, 6 TD) last week in an ugly 13-6 road loss at Cleveland that cost them clinching the division.  The offense was lost without him and WR Calvin Austin (28 receptions, 317 yards, 2 TD).  Then TE Darnell Washington (31 receptions, 364 yards, 1 TD) got hurt and is now out for the year.  They will get Austin back, but Metcalf is suspended for this game and Washington has been placed on IR.

The Steelers already had one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season even with these guys healthy.  They rank 26th in total offense at 300.4 yards per game.   This is now certainly a Bottom 5 offense in their current start without Metcalf and Washington.  The Steelers also rank 27th in the NFL in total defense at 356.8 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 56.4 yards per game on the season.  They have been winning with smoke and mirrors all season, and their luck finally runs out this week.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* Thunder/Suns NBA ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix +10

The Phoenix Suns will be max motivated for revenge tonight after getting blown out 138-89 by the Thunder in the NBA Cup.  They had only lost 123-119 in OKC in their previous meeting.  Now the Suns get the Thunder at home this time around, where they are 11-5 SU this season.

They also face a very banged up Thunder team with Hartenstein out, plus Joe and Wallace questionable.  It's an overvalued Thunder team with the best record in the NBA.  They are coming off three straight wins against short-handed teams in the Warriors who were without Curry, Butler and Green, a Blazers team that is missing a ton of key players and a Hawks team that was without Young, Johnson and Porzingis.

The Suns are healthy and ready to go tonight.  There's a good chance they get Grayson Allen back for this one, but they have been playing well without him all season either way.  The Suns are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming on the road at Golden State by 3 and at Cleveland.  They beat the Warriors, the Lakers by 24 and the Kings by 27 in their three home games during this stretch.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +11.5

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss to the Suns on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat the Raptors by 21 as 8.5-point home dogs, the Grizzlies by 4 as 8-point home dogs, upset the Bucks as 10.5-point road dogs and crushed the Nets by 20 as 3-point home favorites.

A big reason for their resurgence is the return to health of one of the most underrated young superstars in the game in Alex Sarr (17.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.4 BPG).  They are missing Kyshawn George (15.0 PPG), but they have seven of their top eight scorers healthy and forming a nice chemistry right now.

This is a terrible spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 125-115 win in Miami last night.  The Heat had several players get injured during the game that aided the Timberwolves in the win.

Minnesota is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in its last five games overall with the other win aided by early injuries to Giddey and White of the Bulls as well.  They were upset by 16 by the Nets as 12-point favorites, failing to cover by 28.  They were upset by the Hawks by 24 as 5.5-point favorites, failing to cover by 29.5.  They aren't playing well right now, and they certainly should not be double-digit road favorites over the surging Wizards today.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos -7

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser on the Bengals -1/Broncos -1

I anticipated the Chargers would rest their starters when I released the Broncos -7 Sunday night.  I've done my job and got us on a great line as it is now up to Denver -14.5 as of Saturday night.  I would not hedge back.

Jim Harbaugh announced early in the week that he would sit Justin Herbert.  For one of the most injury-ravaged rosters in the NFL, it was the only move for Harbaugh to make.  Wild card seeding doesn't matter much in the AFC and he knew it.

If some starters do play, they likely will only play for a series or two.  Other starters for sure sitting for the Chargers include RB Omarion Hampton, LT Salyer and LB Perryman plus a lot of backups.  The Chargers will start the embattled Trey Lance for this one.  This will be similar to Denver's 38-0 win over Kansas City in Week 18 last year when the Chiefs rested all of their starters.

Denver cannot afford a letdown.  The Broncos are playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, meaning home-field advantage and a first-round bye.  If they lose and the Patriots win, they would overtake them.  I expect the Broncos to be 'all in' this week knowing they have a bye on deck to rest up and get ready for the playoffs next week.

What a tough ask for Lance making this start against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Broncos rank 4th in scoring defense at 19.2 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 282.1 yards per game, 2nd at 4.9 yards per play and 1st in sacks at 4.0 per game.  The Broncos also have the benefit of extra rest heading into this one after beating the Chiefs last Thursday.

"This is a playoff game," Denver head coach Sean Payton said after Wednesday's practice. "I just finished telling our team, 'Now we have to focus on, what are the strengths of Trey (Lance)?'" Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on Robert Morris/Oakland OVER 161.5

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 40th in adjusted tempo, 65th in adjusted offense and just 307th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Grizzlies are 10-4 OVER in all games this season scoring 82.5 points per game and allowing 84.2 points per game.

Robert Morris has been a solid offensive team this season scoring 77.0 points per game.  The Colonials have been much better on offense than defense, ranking 159th in adjusted offense but just 221st in adjusted defense.  Both teams should get whatever they want offensively in this high-paced shootout with the Golden Grizzlies controlling the tempo at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on LA Tech/WKU OVER 144

This total is way too short for a game involving Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers rank 39th in adjusted tempo and control the tempo playing at home.  They are scoring 84.5 points per game and allowing 78 points per game this season, combining to average 162.5 points per game with their opponents.

The Hilltoppers are coming off a 102-91 home win over Sam Houston State for 193 combined points.  WKU and its opponents have combined for at least 145 points in 12 of its 13 games this season, making for a 12-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 144-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals -7

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser on the Bengals -1/Broncos -1

The Cincinnati Bengals are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS since getting Joe Burrow back.  They upset the Ravens 32-14 and took the Bills to the wire in a 39-34 loss on the road.  After falling flat in the rematch with the Ravens at home, the Bengals have been unstoppable the last two weeks.

They beat Miami 45-21 as 3.5-point road favorites behind 407 total yards.  They followed it up with a 37-14 home win over Arizona as 7-point favorites last week with 429 yards.  They called off the dogs late in both games.  They won't be calling off the dogs against division rival Cleveland this week, and I fully expect them to finish strong.

The Browns played their 'Super Bowl' last week in upsetting the Steelers 13-6 at home.  That was a Steelers team missing several key starters including both starting WR's in DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin.  It's easy to see how they held the Steelers in check.  Their task gets much more difficult this week against the Bengals.

While the Bengals are very healthy with Joe Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Brown all ready to go on offense plus an ever-improving defense that is pretty healthy, the Browns have too many injuries to be competitive this week.  The Bengals are fully healthy on offense and only missing a DE starter on defense.

Rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. has been Cleveland's best weapon and scored their lone TD against the Steelers last week.  Once he departed with a groin injury, the Browns couldn't do anything on offense.  They are also without leading rusher RB Quinshon Judkins and TE David Njoku, plus four starters are out on the offensive line.  Shedeur Sanders will not be able to keep up with Burrow and company.

Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite LB Carson Schwesinger suffered a season-ending injury last week against the Steelers.  This defense hasn't been as good since losing DT Maliek Collins to IR.  They had the best run defense in the NFL with him in the lineup, and they've been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL without him since.

The Browns are 1-4 SU in their last five games despite playing four of those five games at home.  In their lone road game during this stretch, they lost 31-3 at Chicago while being held to just 192 total yards.  This game will play out similarly with the Browns getting burried by Burrow and this high-octane Cincinnati offense.  Cincinnati is 12-0 ATS in the 2nd meeting with Cleveland over the last 12 seasons.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -6.5

I released the Vikings -6.5 Sunday night shortly after the lines came out.  I anticipated the Packers would rest their starters in this game because they were locked into the 7th seed.  The Vikings are currently -10.5 as of this writing Saturday night as they have indeed decided to rest starters, so I have done my job here and will not hedge.

The Packers have two banged up QB's in Jordan Love and Malik Willis, so it was pretty easy to anticipate they would rest those two and start Clayton Tune, one of the worst 3rd-string QB's in the NFL let alone backups.  Tune has completed 15-of-27 passes with 3 INT and no touchdowns while averaging 2.9 yards per attempt and taking 8 sacks.  He has a 21.3 QB rating.

The Vikings got good news when JJ McCarthy was upgraded to starter this week.  That's big because he's a big upgrade over backup Max Brosmer.  The Vikings have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to get to 8-8 on the season.  I love backing teams who are going for a winning record in their final game of the season because it means so much to them to finish with a winning mark rather than a losing record.

The Vikings are really balling out on defense under coordinator Brian Flores, and it's a shame they have wasted what is a Top 5 defense in the NFL.  The Vikings have been playing elite defense for five straight weeks.  They held the Seahawks to 219 total yards, shut out the Commanders 31-0 while allowing 206 total yards, gave up just 143 total yards in a win over the Giants and stymied the Lions last week in a 23-10 win while holding them to 231 yards and forcing six turnovers.

What a tough ask for Clayton Tune to go up against this Brian Flores defense this week.  I would be surprised if the Vikings don't score on defense or special teams in this one, but we're not going to need it because McCarthy and company will do enough on offense to get us the cover.  The Packers couldn't care less about this game, while it's the 'Super Bowl' for the Vikings to finish with a winning record.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Titans/Jaguars OVER 46.5

The Jaguars have one of the best offenses in the NFL since trading for WR Jakobi Myers.  They have scored at least 23 points in nine consecutive games and will hang a big number on this terrible, banged up Tennessee defense this week to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.

The Titans have also played in a lot of shootouts here recently due to that poor defense, plus the offense playing their best football of the season.  The Titans are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall going for 60 or more combined points three times.  They have scored at least 24 points in four consecutive games.

But their defense has been awful, allowing 29 points to Cleveland, 37 to San Francisco and 34 to a bad New Orleans offense last week.  The Saints threw for 320 yards on their terrible secondary to get the 34-26 comeback win.

While the Titans are fully healthy on offense which is a big reason for their improvement on that end, they are missing a ton of starters on defense.  That includes LB Arden Key, SS Amani Hooker, FS Xavier Woods and four more CB's in L'Jarius Sneed, Jaylyn Aarmour-Davis, Kevin Winston Jr. and Marcus Harris.

Trevor Lawrence is as hot as any QB in the NFL down the stretch and will have a field day against this Titans defense.  Lawrence has accounted for 16 TD and only 1 INT in his last five games.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, light winds and no precipitation in Jacksonville Sunday.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Falcons OVER 43.5

The Saints are going more pass-happy trying to win Tyler Shough rookie of the year.  They are also going more pass-happy due to necessity down their top two running backs.  This pass-happy approach has led to some more high-scoring games here recently and this Saints offense is thriving under Shough.

The Saints have scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games.  Shough went 22-of-27 passing for 333 yards and 2 TD in leading the Saints to a 34-26 comeback win in Tennessee.  He threw 49 times for 308 yards and a TD in leading the Saints to 29 points against the Jets the previous week.

The Falcons are thriving on offense as well down the stretch with Kirk Cousins.  They put up 29 points and 476 total yards on the Bucs three weeks ago, 26 points and 342 yards on the Cardinals two weeks ago and 27 points and 345 yards on the Rams last week.  The Falcons are very healthy on offense as Cousins is clicking wtith London and Pitts, and Bijan Robinson is putting up monster numbers to close out the season.

But the Falcons have a ton of concerning injuries especially in the secondary and on the defensive line.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR or out, plus top CB AJ Terrell is questionable.  NT Orhorhoro is questionable, and DE Dorlus is out with injuries suffered last week.

The first meeting between these teams ended 24-10 in favor of the Falcons.  But the Saints missed two FG's and scored a total of 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They basically left 17 points off the board in that game.  I suspect they won't do that again in the rematch.

This is a very low total for a game involving both teams teams right now, especially the Falcons.  The Falcons are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall, and they have combined for 44 or more points with their opponents in nine of their last 10 games overall.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this low 43.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Saints +3.5

The New Orleans Saints have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They continue to play hard here down the stretch and would love to go into next season on a 5-game winning streak.  I think we are getting tremendous value on the Saints +3.5 here.

The Saints are going more pass-happy trying to win Tyler Shough rookie of the year.  They are also going more pass-happy due to necessity down their top two running backs.  This pass-happy approach has led to some more high-scoring games here recently and this Saints offense is thriving under Shough.

The Saints have scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games.  Shough went 22-of-27 passing for 333 yards and 2 TD in leading the Saints to a 34-26 comeback win in Tennessee.  He threw 49 times for 308 yards and a TD in leading the Saints to 29 points against the Jets the previous week.

But what makes the Saints underrated is their defense, which ranks 9th in total defense at 305.5 yards per game and 7th at 5.1 yards per play.  Not many would guess the Saints have a Top 10 defense, but that's the case here.

The Saints ran revenge from a 24-10 home loss to the Falcons in a very fluky result.  the Saints missed two FG's and scored a total of 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They basically left 17 points off the board in that game.  I suspect they won't do that again in the rematch.

I think the Falcons played their 'Super Bowl' on Monday Night Football last week upsetting the short-handed Rams 27-24.  They will now be on a short week, and they are 'fat and happy' and not worried about the result of this Week 18 game.  I think the Saints want it more and are the healthier, more motivated team coming into this one.

London, Mooney and Pitts are all battling injuries and questionable to go for the Falcons this week.  The Falcons have a ton of concerning injuries defensively, especially in the secondary and on the defensive line.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR or out, plus top CB AJ Terrell is questionable.  NT Orhorhoro is questionable, and DE Dorlus is out with injuries suffered last week.

This is a very poor Atlanta defense that has allowed at least 24 points in eight of their last 10 games overall, and they should have allowed 24-plus in that first meeting with the Saints.  I think given all their injuries, the Saints will do whatever they want offensively in this one.

The Saints are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS with Shough as their starting QB.  New Orleans is 18-2 ATS in its last 20 games when going for road revenge, 16-1 ATS in its last 17 revenge games overall, and 9-1 ATS in the 2nd meeting with Atlanta the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* Celtics/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML -120

The Los Angeles Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with all six victories coming by 13 points or more.  That includes wins over playoff contenders in the Lakers by 15, the Rockets by 20 and the Pistons by 13.

The Clippers cannot afford to take a foot off the gas after they got off to such a rough start this season.  I expect them to keep it rolling against the Celtics, who could get the LA flu after staying in Los Angeles overnight after a road win at short-handed Sacramento on Thursday.

It will also be the 5th road game in 9 days for the Celtics as they are a tired team coming into this one.  They have feasted on an easy schedule during this road trip as the first four games came against non-playoff contenders.  This is a big step up in class for them tonight.

The Clippers also want revenge from a 121-118 road loss to the Celtics on November 16th in their first meeting this season.  They didn't even have Kawhi Leonard in that game, and he's playing at an MVP level now scoring at least 28 points in all six games during this six-game winning streak. Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Warriors OVER 238.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for at least 241 points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  This total of 238.5 is too short for a game involving Utah right now.

The Jazz should get back Markkanen and/or George tonight after both sat out last game against the Clippers.  The Warriors should get back Steph Curry tonight after he sat out last night against the Thunder.  Curry is the key to their offense as they are an OVER team with him in the lineup.

The Warriors and Jazz combined for 251 points in their first meeting this season.  They also combined for 259 points in their final meeting last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  This run has coincided with getting Brock Purdy back healthy, and he leads the NFL in QBR (77.6).  Purdy has this San Francisco offense humming with an average of 35.7 points per game during this six-game winning streak.  

He threw 5 TD passes in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis for 75 combined points two weeks ago.  He accounted for 5 more TD's in a 42-38 shootout win over the Bears last week and 80 combined points.  The 49ers are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall going for 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  This total of 47.5 is too short for a game involving the 49ers right now.

The 49ers have a mediocre defense without Warner and Bosa.  They have managed to patch it together, but against the elite offenses of the NFL they have given up a lot of points.  In their last three games, they gave up 24 points to a bad Tennessee offense, 27 points to Philip Rivers and a bad Indy offense, and 38 points to Caleb Williams and the Bears last week.  CB Upton Stout suffered a concussion in that game and likely won't be available this week.

What was amazing about the 49ers hanging 42 points and 496 total yards on the Bears last week was that was a Chicago defense that had been playing better and had been as healthy as they had been for basically all season.  The 49ers also did it without two of their best players on offense in TE George Kittle and LT Trent Williams.  Kittle said he'll be back for this game, and Williams is questionable.  Purdy owns the Seahawks, going 6-1 SU in his career against them.

The Seahawks will get their offense going this week.  They put up 27 points on the Panthers on the road last week, and that followed up a 38-37 shootout win over the Rams at home for 75 combined points.  No question the Seahawks have a solid defense, but they did give up 581 total yards to the Rams, who were without Devante Adams in that game.  The 49ers are nearly as explosive as the Rams.  The Seahawks also lost starting SS Coby Bryant (66 tackles, 4 INT) to injury against Carolina and he will be out for this game.

Seattle is fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Charles Cross, but that won't be an issue against the 49ers, who have the worst pass rush in the NFL since losing Bosa.  The Seahawks get back WR Rashid Shaheed from a concussion suffered in a big game against the Rams.  He had a 31-yard run and a 58-yard punt return TD.  The Seahawks traded for him at the deadline and he is a big playmaker with speed that they need.

A big reason this total was bet down from an opener of 49.5 is because of the forecast, which is calling for rain throughout the game.  But there is supposed to be less than 1/4 of an inch of rain during the game, so I'm not concerned about it at all.  Both offenses are going to get their tonight and whoever is down late is going to keep coming with the NFC West title and No. 1 seed at stake.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.