|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-25-21||Saints v. Seahawks +4||13-10||Win||100||11 h 7 m||Show|
15* Saints/Seahawks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +4
The Seattle Seahawks are playing to save their season tonight. At 2-4 they need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I think we get a big effort from them in front of a hostile crowd in Seattle.
Geno Smith has actually looked pretty good in replacing Russell Wilson. The Seahawks had a chance to beat the Rams even without Wilson in the second half. They also had a chance to beat the Steelers in a 20-23 road loss. Smith is completing 67.3% of his passes with two touchdowns and one interception.
I think the Saints are getting too much respect from the books due to coming off their bye week. But you just can't trust Jameis Winston to go on the road and cover a 4-point spread here in a hostile environment in Seattle.
The Saints have terrible stats this season. They are averaging just 295.2 yards per game on offense and giving up 354.0 yards per game on defense, so they are getting outgained by 58.8 yards per game. They are also getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play. The Seahawks have good numbers from a YPP perspective, outgaining opponents by 0.4 YPP on the season.
The Seahawks are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games following a SU loss. Seattle is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as underdogs. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Seahawks Monday.
|10-25-21||Pelicans +5.5 v. Wolves||107-98||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +5.5
I like the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. They will be out for revenge from an 89-96 road loss at Minnesota on Saturday. They won't have to wait long to get it as they face the Timberwolves again tonight in Minnesota.
New Orleans is highly motivated for revenge and to get its first win. Minnesota is feeling good about itself after a 2-0 start with their other win coming against the Rockets. I think they let up tonight after having already beaten the Pelicans, which is going to make it tough for them to cover this 5.5-point spread.
The Timberwolves are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as home favorites. The Pelicans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. Take the Pelicans Monday.
|10-25-21||Bulls -2.5 v. Raptors||Top||111-108||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2.5
The Chicago Bulls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season and coming off wins by 16 and 15 points. They are the real deal this season with LaVine, Vucevic and Williams to go along with newcomers Ball, DeRozan and Caruso. There's a lot to like about this team.
Now DeRozan will enjoy his shot at revenge against his former team in the Toronto Raptors tonight, and the Bulls should rally around him. The Raptors are missing their best player in Pascal Siakam. The Raptors are 1-2 this season with a 15-point home loss to Washington and an 8-point home loss to Dallas.
The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. The Raptors are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs. Toronto is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven home games. Bet the Bulls Monday.
|10-24-21||Magic +12 v. Knicks||110-104||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +12
I like the spot for the Orlando Magic today. This is a home-and-home situation. The Knicks lost 121-96 at home to the Knicks as 8-point underdogs on Friday. Now they come back as 12-point underdogs in New York in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.
The Magic will be the more motivated team in the rematch. The Knicks will feel like they just have to show up to win. And they have a huge game on deck against the 76ers that they could be looking ahead to.
Plays against favorites (New York) - after scoring 120 points or more in two straight games against an opponent that scored 43 points or less in the first half last game are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996. Take the Magic Sunday.
|10-24-21||Texans +18 v. Cardinals||5-31||Loss||-102||23 h 12 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +18
It's time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Cardinals. They're the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL at 6-0. They are coming off three straight huge wins over the Rams, 49ers and Browns. This is the ultimate letdown spot for them with the perceived worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans coming to town.
Plus, the Cardinals have another huge game with the Green Bay Packers on deck Thursday. They will be looking ahead to that game. They will also be playing this game just to get a win and get out of the game healthy for that Packers game. They won't be looking to run up the score.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Texans after five consecutive losses. I actually like what I have seen from this Houston offense the last two weeks despite the scoreboard results. They had 360 yards and outgained the Patriots by 8 yards two weeks ago in their 22-25 loss. They had 353 yards against the Colts last week, but just 3 points, which should be impossible. That misleading 31-3 loss where they were only outgained by 35 yards has this number inflated with an 18-point spread this week.
Arizona is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. They got to play against two banged-up offenses the last two weeks in the 49ers and Browns. The Cardinals are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as home favorites. Roll with the Texans Sunday.
|10-24-21||Hornets +9.5 v. Nets||111-95||Win||100||5 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets +9.5
The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season. They have a nice core of Ball, Bridges, Hayward and Washington. They added Oubre Jr. in the offseason, which was a great move.
The Brooklyn Nets are going to be consistently overvalued this season because they are one of the favorites to win the NBA title. But they don't have Kyrie Irving because of personal choices he has made. And they don't have a lot of help outside Kevin Durant and James Harden. They lost by 23 to the Bucks in their opener before coming back to beat the 76ers by 5. Bet the Hornets Sunday.
|10-24-21||Eagles +3 v. Raiders||Top||22-33||Loss||-107||98 h 12 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Eagles +3
I think most the country was shocked to see the Raiders win 34-24 at Denver as 5-point underdogs last week. With all the John Gruden turmoil surrounding the team it was hard to know what to expect, so I stayed away from that game.
But teams always seem to have a big effort in that first game with a new head coach. The Raiders rallied around each other. They also got some help with four turnovers from the Broncos. It was an injury-ravaged Broncos team that still managed 421 yards against their soft defense.
I think it's time to fade the Raiders this week in their 2nd game back without Gruden. They won't be nearly as motivated as they were last week. The motivated team will be the Eagles, who have lost four of their last five and are playing for their season. But you won't find a harder 5-game stretch all season than the one Philadelphia just faced.
The five games came against the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Panthers and Bucs. They gave the Bucs all they wanted last Thursday in a 22-28 home loss. And now the Eagles have had an extra three days to get ready for this game. They come in as healthy as they have been all season. Jalen Hurts and all that speed on offense should shred this terrible Raiders defense that is giving up 24 PPG.
The Raiders are 20-42-1 ATS in their last 63 games as favorites. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
|10-24-21||Panthers -3 v. Giants||3-25||Loss||-100||20 h 46 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -3
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers. They are coming off three straight one-score losses against some pretty good competition in the Cowboys, Eagles and Vikings. Now they are only 3-point favorites against the lowly New York Giants.
The Giants are off to yet another 1-5 start this season. The last two losses weren't even close as they lost by 24 to the Cowboys and 27 to the Rams. No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Giants. They have 22 players on the injury report with 17 out and five questionable. They are missing a ton of weapons on offense, and Daniel Jones isn't right, either.
The Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. The Giants are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. The Giants are an easy team to figure out. They consistently get too much respect at home and not enough on the road. They have almost zero home-field advantage with the way the fans feel about this team right now. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|10-24-21||New Mexico State +18 v. Hawaii||34-48||Win||100||32 h 43 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico State +18
The New Mexico State Aggies have been covering machines. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and still somehow flying under the radar. Their only non-cover came in a 21-41 home loss to this same Hawaii team as 16.5-point dogs.
Now the Aggies are catching 18 points in the rematch and will be out for revenge. There's reason to believe they can keep this close and possibly pull off the upset. The Aggies actually gained 401 yards in that 21-41 loss and were only outgained by 91 yards. They have been outgained by 91 or fewer yards in five of their last six games overall despite playing some tough competition like Nevada, Hawaii, SJSU and San Diego State, which they actually outgained.
Hawaii is 3-4 this season with its three wins coming against New Mexico State by 20, Portland State by 14 and Fresno State by 3. The Rainbow Warriors lost by 34 to UCLA, by 18 to Oregon State, by 7 to SJSU and by 17 to Nevada.
The Aggies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. New Mexico State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Mountain West opponents. The Rainbow Warriors are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games as home favorites. Hawaii is 16-37 ATS in its last 53 vs. a team with a losing record. The Rainbow Warriors are 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 home games. Roll with New Mexico State Saturday.
|10-23-21||Pistons +8.5 v. Bulls||82-97||Loss||-108||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +8.5
This is a bad spot for the Chicago Bulls. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating a very bad New Orleans Pelicans team at home last night. And I question their motivation here after already beating the Pistons in their opener.
Detroit will be the more motivated, fresher team here catching 8.5 points. The Pistons want revenge from their 88-94 home loss to the Bulls on Wednesday. It was a back and forth game, and I think this one will play out that way as well. Bet the Pistons Saturday.
|10-23-21||Heat -4 v. Pacers||91-102||Loss||-110||7 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4
This is a very tough spot for the Indiana Pacers. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and are coming off a 134-135 (OT) loss to Washington without Bradley Beal yesterday. They won't have much left in the tank for this 2nd of a back-to-back, especially since they are missing some key players to injury already.
The Miami Heat are loaded this season. They brought in Kyle Lowry, P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris to go with the already great core of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson. Tyler Herro also figures to take a step forward.
The Heat will be fresh as this will be just their second game of the season. They were very impressive in their 137-95 home win over Milwaukee on Thursday. Herro had 27, Butler 21 and Adebayo 20 to lead the way.
Indiana is 2-16 ATS in its last 18 games after playing two consecutive road games. The Heat are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings in Indiana. Roll with the Heat Saturday.
|10-23-21||Tennessee v. Alabama -25||24-52||Win||100||27 h 47 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Alabama -25
The Alabama Crimson Tide need style points now after losing to Texas A&M. They just beat Mississippi State 49-9 on the road last week. That's why I'm willing to lay the -25 with them this week as they host the Tennessee Volunteers. There's also another key reason I'm willing to lay it.
Tennessee is a very tired team. They will be playing for an 8th consecutive week. They just had to face 101 plays against Ole Miss' high-powered offense last week. They gave up 510 yards to the Rebels. Now Alabama will score at will against their tired, banged up defense.
The Crimson Tide are putting up 45.0 points per game this season. If they get to their season average like I think they will, they are going to cover this number. I don't see Tennessee getting to 20 points. They still don't know if starting QB Hendon Hooker is going to play, and I don't think it matters much. But if they have to go to backup Joe Milton it's going to get real ugly and would be a bonus for us.
The Volunteers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Crimson Tide are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games. Alabama is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings winning by 31, 22, 37, 38 and 39 points. Take Alabama Saturday.
|10-23-21||UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5||45-16||Loss||-110||27 h 47 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana Tech +6.5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the UTSA Roadrunners. They have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS this season to make backers a lot of money. But it has come against the 131st-ranked schedule in the country.
Louisiana Tech has played the 78th-ranked schedule. It's a great time to 'buy low' on them after their 2-4 start and coming off an ugly 19-3 loss to UTEP. But they could easily be 4-2 instead of 2-4. They only lost by 1 to Mississippi State as 20.5-point dogs. They lost on a hail mary to SMU by 2 as 11-point dogs. And they only lost by 7 at NC State as 18.5-point dogs.
Those three teams are all better than anything UTSA has faced. The seven wins have come against the likes of Illinois, Lamar, Middle Tennessee, Memphis, UNLV, WKU and Rice. And keep in mind four of those wins came by one score, so they are very fortunate to be 7-0.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Louisiana Tech) - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game in the second half of the season are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. LA Tech is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games following an upset loss as a favorite. The Bulldogs are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS loss. Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.
|10-23-21||Oregon v. UCLA -1||Top||34-31||Loss||-109||23 h 18 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA -1
The UCLA Bruins are 5-2 this season with their only losses coming to Fresno State and Arizona State. Four of their five wins have come by double-digits. I think they are the better team here than Oregon and should be more than a 1-point home favorite.
The Bruins have some great numbers. They are averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense against teams that normally only allow 5.4 yards per play. They are giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense against teams that normally allow 5.8 yards per play. Their improvement on defense has been a big reason they are so good this year, and they boast an offense that rushes for 220 yards per game and 5.0 per carry.
Oregon has gotten too much respect ever since its upset win at Ohio State. The Ducks are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. The Ducks were actually outgained by 42 yards by awful Arizona and were fortunate to win that game forcing five turnovers. They were upset at 8.5-point favorites at Stanford. And they only beat Cal by 7 as 13.5-point favorites. They are missing their best RB in CJ Verdell, and QB Anthony Brown is not as good as advertised.
The Bruins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after gaining more than 200 rushing yards in their previous game. The Ducks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Oregon is 1-6 ATS in its last seven conference games. Finally, UCLA wants revenge from a tough 35-38 road loss to Oregon last year. Bet UCLA Saturday.
|10-23-21||Northwestern +24 v. Michigan||Top||7-33||Loss||-115||70 h 58 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +24
Northwestern always seems to get better as the season goes along under Pat Fitzgerald. There have been numerous instances where they got off to a slow start and rallied in the Big Ten schedule. And that appears to be the case again this season.
After a 2-3 start, Northwestern came back from its bye a different team last week. The Wildcats beat Rutgers 21-7, outgaining the Scarlet Knights by 180 yards. They held them to just 222 total yards and have a good defense. That defense should carry them to a cover here against Michigan in what I expect to be an ugly-low-scoring Big Ten game.
Michigan is overvalued due to its 6-0 start and #6 National Ranking. Yes, the Wolverines are coming off their bye week, but some bye weeks are better than others. They had momentum and now that momentum is gone with this bye week.
They were probably feeling fat and happy over the last 2 weeks instead of hungry due to their 6-0 record and Top 10 ranking. I expect them to be flat against Northwestern Saturday. Even if they're not, it's going to take a perfect game for them to cover this 24-point spread, and I'm willing to bet against it.
The Wildcats are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 road games. Northwestern is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 games as a road underdog. The Wolverines are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week. Bet Northwestern Saturday.
|10-22-21||Pelicans +7 v. Bulls||112-128||Loss||-107||11 h 3 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +7
The Chicago Bulls are one of the most hyped teams in the NBA coming into the season. And they managed to cover despite a poor shooting performance in a 94-88 win at Detroit as 5.5-point favorites. But the Pistons are awful and were missing Cade Cunningham.
Now the Bulls are about as big of a favorite as they have been at any point over the last couple seasons as 7-point favorites over the Pelicans. I do like the talent on the Bulls, but I think we can make some money fading their hype early.
It's a good 'buy low' spot on the Pelicans off their 20-point loss to the 76ers in the opener. They shot just 41.9% as a team, largely due to an awful game from newcomer Jonas Valanciunas (3-for-19). He is much better than that and I think he is an upgrade over Steven Adams, who they traded to the Grizzlies for him.
Chicago is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games following a win. The Bulls are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 Friday night home games. The Pelicans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. New Orleans is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Chicago. Roll with the Pelicans Friday.
|10-22-21||Knicks -7.5 v. Magic||121-96||Win||100||10 h 3 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -7.5
The Orlando Magic already have some of the worst talent in the entire NBA. I think they are the worst team in the NBA to open the season with all their injuries. They are without Gary Harris, Michael Carter-Williams, Chuma Okeke, E'Twuan Moore, Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac.
Their lack of talent showed in their 97-123 road loss to the Spurs in the opener. And it's not going to get any easier here against the Knicks, who beat the Boston Celtics 138-134 (OT) in their opener.
This is a Knicks team that was one of the most improved in the NBA last year and should build on that with the additions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier to go with Mitchell Robinson, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, Obi Toppin, Derrick Rose and company. Fournier had 32 points against the Celtics.
The Knicks are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 games overall. Orlando is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine home games. The Magic are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs. Take the Knicks Friday.
|10-22-21||Memphis -2 v. Central Florida||Top||7-24||Loss||-110||10 h 16 m||Show|
20* Memphis/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Memphis -2
The UCF Knights are an absolute mess since losing QB Dillon Gabriel. They have gone 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Even in their lone win during this stretch they beat a bad ECU team 20-16 at home and were outgained in the game.
The Knights also lost by 35 at Cincinnati last week. They were upset by Navy as 14.5-point favorites and outgained by 80 yards by the Midshipmen. They were also outgained by 81 yards in their loss to Louisville.
Memphis has some impressive showings coming into this one. They deserved to beat Tulsa on the road but lost despite gaining 614 yards and outgaining the Golden Hurricane by 198 yards. They beat Navy by 18 last time out and outgained them by 174 yards, the same Navy team that upset UCF and outgained them by 80 yards.
The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Friday games. The Knights are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games overall. UCF is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. The Knights are 0-7 ATS after playing their last game on the road. Bet Memphis Friday.
|10-21-21||Broncos v. Browns OVER 40.5||14-17||Loss||-115||11 h 16 m||Show|
15* Broncos/Browns NFL Total DOMINATOR on OVER 40.5
This is a very low total for any NFL game. But it's definitely low considering the circumstances with the short week that always favors the offenses with less time to prepare. And the fact that these teams aren't familiar with one another being a non-divisional game.
I know both teams have a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, especially the Browns on offense. But I think Case Keenum isn't that much of a downgrade from Baker Mayfield, especially the Mayfield we saw last week on a bum shoulder.
Cleveland's defense is terrible and tired. The Browns gave up 47 points and 493 yards to the Chargers two weeks ago and another 37 points to the Cardinals last week. The Broncos haven't been much better of late defensively. They gave up 27 points and 391 yards to the Steelers two weeks ago and 34 points and 446 yards to the Raiders last week.
The OVER is 4-1 in Browns last five home games. The OVER is 5-1 in Browns last six against AFC opponents. The OVER is 4-1 in Broncos last five games following a loss. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.
|10-21-21||Bucks v. Heat +3||95-137||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat +3
The Miami Heat are loaded this season. They brought in Kyle Lowry, P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris to go with the already great core of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson. Tyler Herro also figures to take a step forward.
Miami wants revenge from getting swept by the Milwaukee Bucks in the playoffs last year. They obviously don't have to wait long to get it by hosting the Bucks in the opener. This is a game I fully expect them to win outright. The Bucks have four key guys out to injury. Take the Heat Thursday.
|10-21-21||Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte +7||Top||38-9||Loss||-110||10 h 57 m||Show|
20* College Football Thursday No-Brainer on Charlotte +7
The Charlotte 49ers are 4-2 this season with their only losses both coming on the road to Georgia State and Illinois. They beat Duke at home and are 3-0 at home while outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game. I like the value we are getting with the 49ers as 7-point home dogs to Florida Atlantic here.
FAU is 3-3 this season with all three wins coming at home against weak competition in Georgia Southern, Fordham and Florida International. The Owls are 0-3 on the road and losing by 20.6 points per game. They are only scoring 11.7 points per game on the highway.
Last year FAU beat Charlotte 21-17 at home despite getting outgained 396 to 315, or by 81 yards. I like the 49ers' chances of getting revenge here with the outright upset, but there's certainly value in taking the 7 points.
The 49ers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games. The Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Charlotte Thursday.
|10-20-21||Cavs +7.5 v. Grizzlies||121-132||Loss||-103||9 h 52 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are flying under the radar to open the season. They have Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland leftover from last year. And they added Lauri Markkanen from the Bulls and drafted Evan Mobley with the No. 3 overall pick.
The Memphis Grizzlies are getting a lot of hype this season after making the playoffs last year. They bring back JA Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr, but they are without Dillon Brooks to start the season and the trade of Jonas Valuncias for Steven Adams is a downgrade for them. This number is too high for the opener. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.
|10-20-21||Braves v. Dodgers -211||9-2||Loss||-211||9 h 41 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers -211
The Los Angeles Dodgers have all the momentum now after coming back from a 5-2 deficit in the 8th inning to save their season with a 6-5 victory in Game 3. I'll come back with them in Game 4 tonight as they have a big advantage on the mound and all the momentum.
Julio Urias is for sure starting for the Dodgers. He is 21-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.007 WHIP in 33 starts this season. He is 7-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 14 home starts. He is 3-0 with a 1.10 ERA and 0.796 WHIP in his last three starts.
Urias owns the Braves, going 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.938 WHIP in three career starts against them. He'll likely be opposed by Huascar Ynoa, who is 1-3 with a 5.62 ERA in eight road starts, including 0-1 with an 8.56 ERA in his last three starts overall.
The Dodgers are 21-3 in Urias' 24 starts as a favorite of -150 or more this season. That's why I'm willing to lay the -211 here with Urias and Los Angeles. Roll with the Dodgers Wednesday.
|10-20-21||Coastal Carolina -4 v. Appalachian State||Top||27-30||Loss||-110||31 h 29 m||Show|
20* Coastal Carolina/Appalachian State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Coastal Carolina -4
Coastal Carolina is even better than they were last year, which is saying something. They returned basically everyone with 19 starters back and their talent has shown with a 6-0 start this season that has seen them win those six games by an average of 33.8 points per game.
The Chanticleers boast an offense that is putting up 48.8 points per game and 552.3 yards per game. Grayson McCall is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He is completing 79.8% of his passes for 1,478 yards with a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for two scores. Coastal Carolina's defense only gives up 15.0 points per game and 281.8 yards per game.
Appalachian State is finally down a little this season. The Mountaineers are 4-2 and were fortunate to come from behind to beat Marshall. They hung tough against an overrated Miami team. But their 13-41 loss last week to Louisiana-Lafayette was a disaster. They turned the ball over four times and have had at least one turnover in all six games. They were held to 211 yards and outgained by 244 yards by the Rajin' Cajuns.
Coastal Carolina beat Appalachian State 34-23 at home last year. And this Coastal Carolina team is better than last year's version, while the Mountaineers aren't as good as they were last year. The Mountaineers have three running backs on the injury report, which is putting a lot of pressure on QB Chase Brice to make plays. He has an 8-to-5 TD/INT ratio on the season. I'll take McCall over Brice all day.
The scheduling spot favors the Chanticleers, too. They are coming off their bye week, so they have had two full weeks to get ready for Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are basically on normal rest after losing to Louisiana-Lafayette last Tuesday.
Coastal Carolina is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games overall. The Chanticleers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Coastal Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games. Appalachian State is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Mountaineers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Appalachian State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine conference games. Bet Coastal Carolina Wednesday.
|10-20-21||Pacers v. Hornets -1||122-123||Push||0||8 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -1
I like this Charlotte Hornets team. They have LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges healthy to start the season. They added Kelly Oubre Jr and drafted James Bouknight and Kai Jones. They are fully healthy to start the season.
The Pacers will be a great 'bet on' team once they get healthy. But they aren't healthy to start the season. They are missing Caris LeVert and TJ Warren. Both Jeremy Lamb and Justin Holidcay are questionable, and Malcolm Brogdon is already dealing with a shoulder injury.
The Hornets want revenge from a 117-144 road loss to the Pacers in the play-in game last year. They don't have to wait long for revenge as they host the Pacers on opening night. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|10-19-21||Warriors v. Lakers -3.5||Top||121-114||Loss||-102||12 h 53 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Lakers NBA Season Opener on Los Angeles -3.5
The Los Angeles Lakers made a big move this offseason to bring in Russell Westbrook to play alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis. This might be the best Big 3 we've ever seen. And all three are healthy to start the season to we get to see them in action on opening night.
With those three, the Lakers have six potential future Hall of Famers when you include Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony and Rajon Rondo. They added shooting as well with Wayne Ellington, Malik Monk and Kendrick Nunn. Ellington will be out, but Monk is expected to play and Nunn is questionable.
The Golden State Warriors open the season missing two of their best players again in Klay Thompson and James Wiseman. Stephen Curry did a great job last year of getting the Warriors into the playoffs. But he'll have to shoulder too much of the load again to start the season.
The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs. Bet the Lakers Tuesday.
|10-19-21||Braves v. Dodgers -174||Top||5-6||Win||100||7 h 4 m||Show|
25* MLB Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Dodgers -174
The Los Angeles Dodgers are down 0-2 and pretty much in a must-win here tonight. I expect them to get the job done and get back in this series behind elite starter Walker Buehler.
Buehler has been dominant again this season at 16-5 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in 35 starts. He has been at his best at home, going 11-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in 20 starts. Buehler has never lost to the Braves, going 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in six career starts against them.
Charlie Morton has been solid at 14-7 with a 3.32 ERA in 35 starts this season, but he's not on Buehler's level. Morton is 1-2 with a 4.68 ERA in six career starts against the Dodgers as well.
The Dodgers are 40-13 in their last 53 home games. Los Angeles is 45-15 in its last 60 games overall. The Dodgers are 40-18 in the last 58 meetings. Bet the Dodgers Tuesday.
|10-18-21||Bills v. Titans +5.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||145 h 42 m||Show|
20* Bills/Titans ESPN No-Brainer on Tennessee +5.5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Buffalo Bills. They are getting massive respect from oddsmakers and the betting public right now after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight blowout victories.
The Bills are coming off a 38-20 road win over the Kansas City Chiefs. That was a huge revenge game for them after losing twice to the Chiefs last season, including getting eliminated by them in the playoffs. Now they are fat and happy and feeling good about themselves, making them ripe for the picking. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Titans as they were the Chiefs.
The Titans have quietly gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games overall. They continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the NFL year after year. That was on display last year when they beat the Bills 42-16 at home as 3-point underdogs. Now they are catching 5.5 points at home in the rematch.
The Bills have been forcing turnovers at an alarming rate, which is unsustainable. They have forced three or more turnovers in four consecutive games and 15 turnovers overall in those four games. Tennessee isn't a team that turns it over much as they are a run-heavy team, and Ryan Tannehill does a good job of taking care of the ball. They have only committed seven turnovers in five games this season.
Plays against favorites (Buffalo) - with a great offense that average 385 or more yards per game, after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Monday games. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Titans Monday.
|10-18-21||Astros +108 v. Red Sox||3-12||Loss||-100||10 h 37 m||Show|
15* Astros/Red Sox Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Houston +108
Eduardo Rodriquez and the Boston Red Sox should not be favored in Game 3 tonight. Rodriquez is 4-4 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in 14 home starts this season. Rodriquez is 1-3 with an 8.52 ERA and 1.894 WHIP in six career starts against Houston. He has faced the Astros twice this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 18 base runners in 9 1/3 innings.
Jose Urquidy is 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in 20 starts this season. He is 4-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.072 WHIP in 10 road starts. Urquidy is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in one career start against the Red Sox. That came on May 31st this season when he allowed just one earned run with 9 K's in 6 innings of an 11-2 victory. Bet the Astros Monday.
|10-17-21||Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves||4-5||Loss||-100||11 h 57 m||Show|
15* Dodgers/Braves Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -1.5 (+101) I expect the Los Angeles Dodgers to bounce back from a Game 1 loss with a blowout victory in Game 2. They have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Max Scherzer over Ian Anderson. Scherzer had a Cy Young season at 15-5 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 32 starts this season. Ian Anderson is 10-5 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 25 starts this season. One of those starts came against the Dodgers when he allowed 4 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings. The Dodgers are 45-14 in their last 59 games overall. Los Angeles is 40-19 in the last 59 meetings. The Dodgers are 14-1 in Scherzer's last 15 starts. The only game they lost was a 1-0 setback against the Giants last series. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Sunday.
|10-17-21||Cowboys v. Patriots +4||Top||35-29||Loss||-107||117 h 3 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Patriots Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New England +4
It's time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Cowboys. They are the only remaining unbeaten team against the spread at 5-0 ATS this season. They have won three straight home games against mediocre teams coming in.
The Cowboys haven't fared as well on the road. They were fortunate to beat the Chargers 20-17 as the refs basically handed them that victory. And they lost to the Bucs on the road in the opener despite forcing four turnovers. And their turnover and injury luck has been unbelievable this year. Players on opposing teams keep going down mid-game, and they have already forced 12 turnovers and at least two turnovers in every game, which is unsustainable.
The Patriots are just 2-3 this season and thus it's time to 'buy low' on them. Two of their three losses came by a combined 3 points. The other was a misleading 13-28 loss to the Saints in which they were -3 in turnovers and outgained the Saints by 48 yards. Keep in mind they were last seen at home nearly upsetting the defending champion Tampa Bay Bucs, hitting the upright on a potential game-winning field goal in a 17-19 loss.
Dallas is only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play. They have an elite offense at 6.7 yards per play, but a terrible defense giving up 6.5 yards per play. To compare, the Patriots have an elite defense in giving up 5.3 yards per play. And Mac Jones is primed to have one of his best games of the season against this Dallas defense.
Bill Belichick is 14-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of New England. The Patriots are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as home underdogs of 7 points or fewer. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road favorites. New England is 39-19-3 ATS in its last 61 games as an underdog overall. Roll with the Patriots Sunday.
|10-17-21||Cardinals v. Browns -2.5||Top||37-14||Loss||-115||125 h 9 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Browns -2.5
The Arizona Cardinals are overvalued due to being the last remaining team in the NFL at 5-0. We'll 'sell high' on them this week. They should have lost to the Vikings and they should have lost to the 49ers based on the numbers in the 49ers games and the missed kicks by the Vikings. So they really should be 3-2.
Cleveland is very close to being the 5-0 team. Their only two losses both came on the road to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Chiefs and Chargers. They blew a 29-20 4th quarter lead to the Chiefs and a 27-13 3rd quarter lead to the Chargers. In fact, they became the 1st team in NFL history to lose a game when scoring 40 points and having more than 500 yards of offense in that Chargers defeat.
The Browns are 2-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 15.0 points per game and outgaining them by 212 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by 118.8 yards per game on the season. They are outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play, averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.4 yards per play on defense. To compare, Arizona is only outgaining opponents by 0.6 yards per play.
The matchup is a great one for this Cleveland offense. They average 188 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry. Well, Arizona gives up 139 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry. And keep in mind Kyler Murray suffered an arm injury against the 49ers last week and they managed just 17 points as the offense looked out of sync all game. He isn't 100% coming into this one.
Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. NFC opponents. The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. They will suffer their first loss of the season to Cleveland in this one. Take the Browns Sunday.
|10-17-21||Vikings v. Panthers -1||Top||34-28||Loss||-110||123 h 54 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers -1
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers. They are coming off back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Eagles. This is a 'circle the wagons' game as they are looking at is as a must-win at home with their next two games coming on the road. We'll get one of their best efforts of the season.
That should be good enough to win and cover here as a 1-point home favorite against the Minnesota Vikings. This is a Vikings team that is just 2-3 this season with one of its wins coming over the Lions, and the other coming against a Seahawks team that is clearly not as good as everyone thought coming into the season. And they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Lions.
The Panthers should be 4-1 instead of 3-2. They deserved to lose at Dallas, which is proving to be one of the best teams in the NFL. But they blew a late lead to the Eagles last week in a game they were in control throughout. And they dominated their first three games of the season, outscoring the Jets, Saints and Texans by a combined score of 69-30.
The Panthers have the numbers of an elite team. They are outgaining opponents by 107 yards per game on the season behind a defense that is giving up just 256 yards per game. And the offense is improved under Sam Darnold and offensive mastermind Joe Brady calling the plays.
Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after playing its last game at home. Minnesota is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games overall. Currently as of this writing, Minnesota is a 1-point favorite, and the Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. The Panthers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs. Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|10-17-21||Texans +10 v. Colts||3-31||Loss||-110||114 h 38 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +10
The Houston Texans impressed me last week in their 22-25 home loss to the New England Patriots as 8-point underdogs. They actually outgained the Patriots in the game, but missed kicks cost them the win. Davis Mills had his best game of the season, completing 21 of 29 passes for 312 yards and three touchdowns, and I expect him to build off of that performance.
The Indianapolis Colts cannot be trusted as 10-point favorites here. They are 1-4 on the season with their lone win coming against the hapless Miami Dolphins. And the spot is a terrible one for the Colts. They blew a 22-3 lead on Monday Night Football to the Ravens, eventually losing 25-31 (OT).
It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after they did almost everything right in that game to win. Carson Wentz finally played to his potential, but it still wasn't enough. And now they are on a short week after an overtime game, so they won't be fully recovered in time for the Texans. And the injuries are mounting up for the Colts with 12 players out and another 6 questionable.
This has been a very closely-contested division rivalry. In fact, 14 of the last 15 meetings have been decided by 9 points or less. That makes for a 14-1 system backing the Texans pertaining to this 10-point spread. The Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites. The road team is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Take the Texans Sunday.
|10-16-21||Arizona State v. Utah +1||Top||21-35||Win||100||71 h 41 m||Show|
20* Arizona State/Utah ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +1
The Utah Utes are in a great spot this week against Arizona State. They had a bye prior to beating USC 42-26 on the road in upset fashion last week. So they are still fresh and ready to go here with Arizona State coming to Salt Lake City in a game that may very well decide the Pac-12 South.
The Utes have been better off since QB Charlie Brewers left the team. The distraction is gone, and that showed in that performance against USC last week. And Utah is one of the toughest places to play in the country, especially in a night game with kickoff set for 10:00 EST.
Arizona State is getting too much respect now after three straight wins and covers against Colorado, UCLA and Stanford. No question this is a good Arizona State team, but they are not better than Utah, and this line would indicate that they are. Home-field advantage isn't being factored into this line enough with the Utes being underdogs. And fatigue for ASU isn't being factored in enough as they will be playing for a 7th consecutive week here.
The Utes are 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 games as underdogs. The Sun Devils are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as favorites. Utah is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a conference win. The Utes always get better as the season goes along under Kyle Whittingham. Bet Utah Saturday.
|10-16-21||UCLA v. Washington UNDER 55.5||24-17||Win||100||57 h 55 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UCLA/Washington UNDER 55.5
Washington is a dead nuts UNDER team this season. They are 4-1 UNDER in their five games this year. They have a terrible offense that averages just 24.8 points per game, 375.2 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.
But the Huskies always have a great defense, and that is the case again this season. They are holding opponents to 19.6 points per game, 326.8 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play. They are holding opponents to 8.3 points per game, 55 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.
UCLA's offense is run-first as they average 45 rushing attempts compared to 24 passing attempts. That should held keep the clock moving. Dorian-Thompson Robinson is an inaccurate quarterback who is better with his legs than he is with his arm. I just really see points hard to come by in this one. UCLA's defense is above average as they give up 5.7 yards per play against teams that average 6.0 yards per play.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Bruins last four vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 16-6 in Huskies last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Huskies last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Huskies last four games following a loss. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|10-16-21||Red Sox v. Astros -109||9-5||Loss||-109||6 h 18 m||Show|
15* Red Sox/Astros Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Houston -109
The Houston Astros got their bats going against the Chicago White Sox last series. They scored 6 or more runs in every game and 31 runs total in four games against a very good Chicago staff. The Astros rank 2nd in runs per 9 innings, 1st in average and 2nd in OPS in all of baseball this season.
They showed some resiliency coming back from a 3-1 deficit late in Game 1 to win 5-4 over the Red Sox. Now I expect them to win Game 2 behind Luis Garcia. He is 6-4 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 13 home starts this season. He faced the Red Sox once this year, allowing just one earned run in 7 innings of a 5-1 victory on June 1st at home.
Nathan Eovaldi has been great at home for the Red Sox, but it has been a different story on the road. Eovaldi is 5-5 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in 13 road starts this season. He faced the Astros once this year, allowing 5 earned runs and 14 base runners in 5 2/3 innings of an 8-3 loss.
This line is too low at basically even money due to bettors following the zig zag theory. The Astros should be much bigger favorites. The Red Sox are 5-14 in their last 19 games as road underdogs. Boston is 6-16 in its last 22 games as a dog overall. Houston is 45-21 in its last 66 home games. The Astros are 71-29 in their last 100 home games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs. Roll with the Astros Saturday.
|10-16-21||Purdue +12 v. Iowa||Top||24-7||Win||100||89 h 28 m||Show|
25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue +12
The Purdue Boilermakers have had two weeks to get ready for the Iowa Hawkeyes. They had a bye last week following their loss to Minnesota. They have been competitive in every game this season, and they always play Iowa tough.
Indeed, the Boilermakers are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Hawkeyes. All four meetings were decided by 9 points or less, including the 6-point loss they suffered in their only defeat as 17.5-point dogs. They pulled two outright upsets and covered as 1.5-point favorites.
Iowa is in a huge letdown spot after its 23-20 win over Penn State last week. The Hawkeyes never would have won that game if Penn State starting QB Sean Clifford didn't get injured. They blew a 17-3 lead. Backup Tre'Quan Roberson was awful in his place, throwing for just 34 yards on 21 attempts with two interceptions.
The Boilermakers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs. Purdue is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. Jeff Brohm is 15-6 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Purdue. Brohm is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game as a head coach. Bet Purdue Saturday.
|10-16-21||Ball State -1 v. Eastern Michigan||Top||38-31||Win||100||63 h 41 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State -1
Ball State won the MAC last year and brought back 20 starters including the best QB in the MAC in Drew Plitt. So it was surprising to see them start 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS this season. But that start has had them undervalued since, and they remain undervalued here as only 1-point favorites against one of the worst teams in the MAC in Eastern Michigan.
Two weeks ago Ball State upset a very good Army team 28-16 as 10.5-point underdogs. Last week Ball State went on the road and crushed Western Michigan 45-20 as 12.5-point dogs. And now they are right back in the MAC title race and won't be overlooking Eastern Michigan here. Look for them to keep their momentum rolling.
Eastern Michigan is overvalued right now due to a 4-2 start with its four wins all coming against suspect competition in St. Francis PA, UMass, Texas State and Miami (Ohio). The losses came to Wisconsin by 27 and Northern Illinois by 7. They were outgained by 128 yards last time out and were fortunate to beat Miami Ohio 13-12. They were outgained by 426 yards by Wisconsin, and by 12 yards against UMass.
The Cardinals have played the much tougher schedule between these teams as well. Ball State is 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons. Eastern Michigan is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 games off a home win. The Cardinals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record, including 7-0 ATS vs. teams with winning records over the last two seasons. Take Ball State Saturday.
|10-16-21||Tulsa v. South Florida +8.5||32-31||Win||100||48 h 25 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on South Florida +8.5
South Florida has played a brutal schedule early and is better than its 1-4 record would indicate. The four losses came to NC State, Florida, BYU and SMU which are four teams ranked inside the Top 25. Three losses came on the road, and the last two against BYU and SMU were competitive late in the 2nd half.
Now South Florida comes off its bye week fresh and ready to get that first AAC victory Saturday against Tulsa. The Bulls have found their quarterback in Timmy Mcclain, who is completing 58.7% of his passes and averaging 8 yards per attempt. He has also rushed for 158 yards as a dual threat.
Tulsa is 2-4 this season with its only wins both coming at home over Arkansas State by 7 and Memphis by 6. So the Golden Hurricane haven't won a game by more than 7 points this season. Now they are a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week after a fortunate 35-29 shootout win over Memphis last week. They gave up 614 total yards to Memphis and were outgained by 198 yards, but were +3 in turnovers to save the day.
The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. South Florida is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing more than 40 points last game. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS off an ATS loss over the last two seasons. This is a great spot for the Bulls and they are live underdogs in this one. Roll with South Florida Saturday.
|10-15-21||Red Sox v. Astros -133||4-5||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
15* Red Sox/Astros Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Houston -133
The Houston Astros got their bats going against the Chicago White Sox last series. They scored 6 or more runs in every game and 31 runs total in four games against a very good Chicago staff. Now they are up against a much weaker Boston Red Sox staff in this series. The Astros rank 2nd in runs per 9 innings, 1st in average and 2nd in OPS in all of baseball this season.
Houston should stay hot at the plate against Chris Sale tonight. Sale allowed 5 earned runs in one inning against the Rays in his lone start last series. He has posted a 4.12 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in 10 starts this season.
Framber Valdez is 11-6 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.266 WHIP In 23 starts this season for the Astros. He has faced the Red Sox twice this season, going 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 0.837 WHIP while allowing just 2 earned runs and 12 base runners in 14 1/3 innings with 18 K's.
The Red Sox are 5-13 in their last 18 games as road underdogs. Boston is 6-15 in its last 21 games as a dog overall. Houston is 44-21 in its last 65 home games. The Astros are 70-29 in their last 99 home games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs. Houston is 57-19 in its last 76 games following an off day. Take the Astros Friday.
|10-15-21||Marshall v. North Texas OVER 66||Top||49-21||Win||100||45 h 36 m||Show|
20* College Football TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Marshall/North Texas OVER 66
This game between Marshall and North Texas has all the makings of a shootout Friday night. These are two of the fastest-paced teams in the country as North Texas averages 82 plays per game while Marshall averages 77 plays per game.
Marshall has been impressive on offense this season in averaging 34.8 points and 515.2 yards per game to go along with 6.7 yards per play. North Texas doesn't have great season-long numbers offensively, but they just scored 35 points against an SEC opponent in Missouri and gave up 48. Their defense has been atrocious in allowing 32.2 points per game on the season. Marshall gave up 42 to ECU, 31 to App State and 34 to Middle Tennessee in three of its last four games coming in.
The OVER is 15-6 in Thundering Herd last 21 games following an ATS loss. The OVER is 5-1 in Marshall's last six games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The OVER is 4-1 in Mean Green last five games as home underdogs. The OVER is 5-1 in North Texas' last six games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|10-14-21||Bucs v. Eagles +7||28-22||Win||100||49 h 59 m||Show|
15* Bucs/Eagles NFC ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +7
The Philadelphia Eagles have played a brutal schedule thus far of Atlanta, San Francisco, Dallas, Kansas City and Carolina. It's safe to say they are battle-tested and ready for this challenge against the Tampa Bay Bucs tonight.
The Eagles have put up tremendous numbers against that brutal schedule, and they are a grossly undervalued team right now. They are averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and giving up only 5.2 yards per play on defense against teams that normally averaged 6.0 yards per play. So they are outgaining their opponents by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the best numbers in the NFL.
The Bucs give up 5.9 yards per play against teams that normally averaged 5.7 yards per play, so they have a below-average defense this year. A big reason for that is they are missing several key players in the secondary. They are also without LB Lavonte David. Offensively, both Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski are questionable, and Tom Brady is battling an injured thumb.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bucs off their 45-17 home win over the hapless Miami Dolphins last week. The Bucs haven't fared nearly as well on the road. They lost 24-34 to the Rams and barely escaped with a 19-17 win at New England in their two road games this season.
Plays against favorites (Tampa Bay) - with a great offense that average 385 or more yards per game, after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Bucs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games. Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a road favorite. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Eagles Thursday.
|10-14-21||Navy +10.5 v. Memphis||Top||17-35||Loss||-100||21 h 6 m||Show|
20* Navy/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on Navy +10.5
The Navy Midshipmen are improving rapidly this season. After blowout losses to Marshall and Air Force to start the season, they have since gone 3-0 ATS with three straight games against very good competition decided by 8 points or less.
They lost by 8 at Houston as 20-point dogs, beat UCF outright by 4 as 14.5-point dogs and only lost by 7 to SMU as 13.5-point home dogs. Now they are catching double-digits against a Memphis squad that is worse than all three of those teams.
Memphis is 3-3 this season with two of its wins coming by 5 and 2 points over Arkansas State and Mississippi State, respectively. Their only blowout win came against FCS Nicholls State 42-17 in the opener. They have lost three straight games with upset losses to UTSA and Temple, as well as a road loss to Tulsa as a 3-point dog.
Memphis gave up 235 rushing yards to Tulsa, 157 to Temple and 205 to UTSA in each of its last three losses. It isn't going to get any easier here against Navy, which will test their run defense. The Midshipmen are averaging 220 rushing yards per game this season.
This Navy defense has been impressive, too. The Midshipmen are holding opponents to 361 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play against teams that normally average 460 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. So they are holding opponents to nearly 100 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play below their season averages.
Navy is the fresher team having played just five games while Memphis has played six games. While the Midshipmen had a bye week prior to Week 4, the Tigers have not had a bye week. They will be playing for a 7th consecutive week here and on a short week at that with this game behind played on a Thursday. Navy's physicality will takes its toll and wear out Memphis on both sides of the football.
Navy is 63-29 ATS in its last 92 games as a road underdog. The Midshipmen are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 450 or more yards per game. Ryan Silverfield is 2-9 ATS when playing with 6 or less days' rest as the coach of Memphis. Sliverfield is 0-6 ATS after gaining 475 or more yards per game in the last three games as the coach of the Tigers. Memphis is 1-7 ATS in its last eight conference games. The Midshipmen are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Memphis is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite against FBS competition. Take Navy Thursday.
|10-12-21||Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 57||Top||13-41||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
20* Appalachian State/Louisiana ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UNDER 57
Appalachian State and Louisiana are very familiar with one another. They seem to play in the Sun Belt Championship every year. In fact, they have met in the title game in four consecutive seasons now, sometimes playing each other twice. They have played five times in the past three seasons alone.
That familiarity definitely favors defenses and low-scoring games. That has been the case in this series with the exception of one game. Louisiana and Appalachian State have combined for 49 or fewer points in four of their five meetings over the last three seasons. They have combined for 51 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.
Louisiana is 4-1 UNDER this season with combined scores of 56 or fewer points in four of their five games. Appalachian State has seen 54 or fewer combined points in three of their five games this season. And both teams have very good defenses, especially Appalachian State.
Appalachian State is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 road games after a cover as a double-digit favorite. The UNDER is 10-1 in Louisiana's last 11 home games. The UNDER is 8-0 in Louisiana's last eight home games vs. conference opponents. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|10-12-21||Astros v. White Sox -108||Top||10-1||Loss||-108||5 h 58 m||Show|
20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -108
The Chicago White Sox improved to 70-32 in their last 102 home games with their 12-6 victory over the Houston Astros in Game 3 to stave off elimination. Look for them to force a Game 5 today with another win behind Carlos Rodon.
Rodon is 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 6-3 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.832 WHIP in 11 home starts. He has owned the Astros, going 2-0 with a 1.55 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in seven career starts against them.
Rodon is 10-1 against the money line as a favorite of -100 to -150 this season. The Astros are 0-5 in their last five road games. The White Sox are 7-1 in their last eight games vs. a right-handed starter. Chicago is 64-28 in its last 92 games as a home favorite. Take the White Sox Tuesday.
|10-11-21||Colts v. Ravens -7||Top||25-31||Loss||-100||130 h 48 m||Show|
20* Colts/Ravens ESPN No-Brainer on Baltimore -7
The Baltimore Ravens have found their groove since an opening loss to the Raiders. They have won three straight since including an upset victory over the Chiefs and a 23-7 road win at Denver. Now they will be playing just their 2nd home game of the season, and they are as healthy as they have been all year. They should get back to being the same old Ravens moving forward.
The Indianapolis Colts are a mess due to all their injuries. They are just 1-3 this season with their only win coming against a bad Miami Dolphins team playing with a backup QB last week. I think they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers because of that victory.
The Colts had previously lost their first three games to start the season. They lost 16-28 to the Seahawks, 24-27 to the Rams and 16-25 to the Titans. They were outgained in all three games, and this is probably going to be their stiffest test of the season on the road at the Ravens.
Baltimore has the numbers to match their 3-1 record. They outgained the Chiefs by 76 yards and had 481 yards of offense, they outgained the Lions by 102 yards and had 387 yards of offense, and they outgained the Broncos by 152 yards behind 406 yards of offense.
Frank Reich is 0-6 ATS vs. AFC North opponents as the coach of the Colts. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. They seem to just beat up on bad teams, and that should be the case here under the lights of Monday Night Football. Bet the Ravens Monday.
|10-11-21||Rays +102 v. Red Sox||5-6||Loss||-100||9 h 14 m||Show|
15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Rays +102
I'm backing the Tampa Bay Rays to stave off elimination in Game 4 tonight. The main reason for this pick is fading Boston's Eduardo Rodriquez.
Rodriquez is 12-9 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 32 starts this season. He is 4-4 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in 13 home starts. Rodriquez is 2-5 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.493 WHIP in 14 career starts against Tampa Bay. He has allowed 8 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them this season.
The Rays are 54-26 in their last 80 games overall. Tampa Bay is 17-7 in its last 24 meetings in Boston. Roll with the Rays Monday.
|10-10-21||Giants +7 v. Cowboys||20-44||Loss||-107||102 h 58 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +7
The Dallas Cowboys are the only remaining team that is unbeaten ATS, going 4-0 ATS through their first four games. It's time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys now as 7-point home favorites over the division rival New York Giants.
While the Cowboys have an elite offense, their defense isn't nearly as good as it is getting credit for. They simply can't keep forcing turnovers at this rate. They have already forced 10 turnovers in four games. But they rank 30th in the NFL in giving up 6.4 yards per play this season.
The Giants have a sneaky good offense and a decent defense, giving up 5.9 yards per play. The Giants are 8th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play, barely behind Dallas' 6.4 per play in 7th place. These teams are a lot closer than this line would indicate.
The Giants were coming off two losses to the Falcons and Washington by a combined 4 points before showing their resiliency last week, winning 27-21 at New Orleans. They had 485 total yards against a very good Saints defense, and Daniel Jones is playing the best football of his career this season. He is capable of matching the Cowboys score for score in this one.
The Giants are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games. New York is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games as a road underdog. Joe Judge is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games vs. NFC opponents as the coach of New York. Roll with the Giants Sunday.
|10-10-21||Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5||4-6||Loss||-100||6 h 17 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rays/Red Sox UNDER 8.5
This has the makings of a pitcher's duel between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox in Game 3 tonight. I like what I've seen from both starting pitchers, and I expect the bullpens to shut each other down.
Nathan Eovaldi is 7-4 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 20 home starts this season. He is 2-0 with a 0.79 ERA in his last two starts, allowing just one earned run in 11 1/3 innings against the Yankees and Orioles. Eovaldi 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA In his last two starts against the Rays, allowing one earned run and nine base runners in 14 innings with 18 K's.
Drew Rasmussen is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Rays, allowing just 9 earned runs, 7 walks and 2 homers in 42 innings. Rasmussen is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in three starts against the Red Sox this season, allowing just 3 earned runs and 12 base runners in 14 innings.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Rays last eight games as underdogs. The UNDER is 7-2 in Rays last nine games overall. The UNDER is 7-1 in Red Sox last eight games as favorites. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|10-10-21||Broncos v. Steelers -1||Top||19-27||Win||100||99 h 34 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Steelers -1
The Pittsburgh Steelers are in must-win mode now after a 1-3 start. Expect their best effort of the season when they host the Denver Broncos Sunday afternoon with their season essentially on the line. It should be enough to win and cover here as a short home favorite.
The Steelers were hampered by injuries in their losses to the Raiders and Bengals, who have both turned out to be very good teams. Their other loss came on the road against the Packers, which is expected. But remember, they upset the Bills in Week 1, so we know what they are capable of. Their four games have come against teams that are a combined 12-4 this season, so they have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. And they are getting healthier by the week.
It's time to fade the Denver Broncos, who are 3-1 this season while benefitting from playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Their three wins came against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets. They got put in their place last week in a 7-23 home loss to the Ravens as Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the game with a concussion.
Bridgewater is questionable to return this week, and with this pick it doesn't really matter who starts for them, though getting Drew Lock again would be an added bonus. Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Broncos. They could be without as many as nine starters this week, who are either out, doubtful or questionable.
Mike Tomlin is 13-4 ATS after three or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers. It's time to 'buy low' on the Steelers this week as you will probably never get better value with them than you are here at home against the Broncos. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|10-10-21||Packers v. Bengals +3||25-22||Push||0||99 h 34 m||Show|
15* Packers/Bengals Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cincinnati +3
The Cincinnati Bengals are greatly improved this season. They are off to a 3-1 start with their only loss coming 20-17 on the road to the Chicago Bears in a game in which they held the Bears to just 206 total yards and were -3 in turnovers.
The Bengals have beaten the Vikings, Steelers and Jaguars. Now they have extra time to prepare after beating the Jaguars last Thursday. Their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up just 18.8 points and 323.0 yards per game. And their offense is loaded with playmakers surrounding the underrated Joe Burrow, who continues to impress week after week.
The Packers are injury-ravaged right now, which is the biggest reason we are fading them. They are without LB Za'Darius Smith, T David Bakhtiari, and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. They have five other starters questionable in LB Preston Smith, CB Jaire Alexander, G Elgton Jenkins, LB Krys Barnes and CB Kevin King. Their issues at CB will particularly be a problem against Burrow and company.
The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Bengals Sunday.
|10-10-21||Eagles v. Panthers OVER 45||Top||21-18||Loss||-104||99 h 34 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Eagles/Panthers OVER 45
The Philadelphia Eagles are clearly an OVER team. They just combined for 62 points with the Dallas Cowboys and 72 points with the Kansas City Chiefs the last two weeks. They won't have any problem combining for 45-plus points with the Carolina Panthers this week.
The Eagles have an electric offense with Jalen Hurts and a ton of young skill talent. They are averaging 397.5 yards per game. But their defense has some significant injuries, and as a result they are giving up 26.5 PPG. This is the worst defense the Eagles have had in years.
The Panthers are coming alive in Joe Brady's offense in his second season as coordinator. They are averaging 387.5 yards per game this season behind the improved play of Sam Darnold, who already has five rushing touchdowns. He is completing 67.8% of his passes and averaging 8 yards per attempt.
Carolina's defense isn't as good as the season-long numbers would suggest. They played three of the worst offenses in the NFL to start the season in the Jets, Saints and Texans. But they met their match last week in a 28-36 loss to the Cowboys in a game that saw 64 combined points.
The OVER is 21-9 in Eagles last 30 games as road underdogs. The OVER is 33-16 in Eagles last 49 road games overall. The OVER is 34-17 in Panthers last 51 games after a game where 60 or more points were scored. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-10-21||Saints v. Washington Football Team +2||33-22||Loss||-103||99 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington +2
The New Orleans Saints are way overrated this season. They should not be road favorites over the Washington Football Team Sunday. This is a game I expect Washington to win outright, but we'll take the +2 for some insurance.
New Orleans is averaging just 276.8 yards per game on offense and giving up 349.3 yards per game on defense. They are getting outgained by nearly 75 yards per game. And it's not like they have played that difficult of a schedule. They can't figure out who their quarterback is as they are dealing with two below-average guys in Winston and Hill, and they have so many injuries right now on both sides of the ball.
Washington gutted out a 34-30 win in Atlanta last week despite missing two extra points and a two-point conversion chasing those two missed extra points. That's the type of win that will bring this team together, and Taylor Heineke is showing he's not a downgrade at all at quarterback. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 87 yards and a score as a dual-threat.
Ron Rivera is 49-21 ATS after playing his last game on the road as a head coach. Rivera is 10-2 ATS vs. teams who commit 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game as a head coach. The Football Team is 8-1 in their last nine games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game. The Football Team is 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. The Football Team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Roll with Washington Sunday.
|10-09-21||New Mexico State +30.5 v. Nevada||Top||28-55||Win||100||55 h 38 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico State +30.5
Nevada is in a big letdown spot this week. They are coming off an upset win over Boise State on the road last week. But they were coming off a bye, so that was a good spot for them. And the Broncos already have three losses this season and are nowhere near the program they used to be.
Now Nevada steps outside the conference to take on lowly New Mexico State. The Wolf Pack probably feel like they just have to show up to win this game. But the Aggies have been feisty since a bad loss to UTEP to open the season. And they should be 'all in' here knowing they have a bye on deck to rest next week.
New Mexico State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and has been competitive in every game, not once losing by more than 20 points. They lost by 18 at San Diego State as 31.5-point dogs and actually outgained the Aztecs by 11 yards. They lost by 9 to New Mexico as 19.5-point dogs. They beat South Carolina State 43-35. They lost by 20 as 17-point dogs at Hawaii. And last week was their most impressive performance yet, losing by just 6 at San Jose State as 26-point dogs.
The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. New Mexico State is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Mountain West opponents. Nevada is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. Take New Mexico State Saturday.
|10-09-21||Braves +114 v. Brewers||3-0||Win||114||8 h 30 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +114
The Atlanta Braves are 12-3 in their last 15 games overall. They will bounce back from a Game 1 loss to the Brewers with a win in Game 2 behind Max Fried.
Fried is 14-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 28 starts this season. He is 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA and 0.478 WHIP in his last three starts. He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 12 consecutive starts.
Fried is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in three career starts against the Brewers. He'll be opposed by Brandon Woodruff, who allowed 3 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 1/3 innings of an 8-1 loss to the Braves in his lone start against them this season.
The Braves are 12-1 in Fried's last 13 starts vs. a good team with a winning percentage from 54% to 62% on the season. Take the Braves Saturday.
|10-09-21||Penn State v. Iowa -1||20-23||Win||100||48 h 13 m||Show|
15* Penn State/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa -1
The Iowa Hawkeyes aren't getting the respect they deserve again this week as only 1-point home favorites over Penn State. They are the better football team, they are at home, and it will be the toughest atmosphere of the season that the Nittany Lions have faced yet.
Penn State has been doing all of its damage at home. The Nittany Lions have played four straight home games since their 16-10 win at Wisconsin in the opener. And it turns out Wisconsin isn't very good. And the Nittany Lions were outgained by 62 yards by the Badgers in that game and very fortunate to win with their red zone INT's.
Iowa is 11-0 in its last 11 games overall with 10 wins by double-digits. Maybe this team will finally get the respect they deserve after beating Penn State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 road games after allowing 9 points or less last game.
Plays on home teams (Iowa) - after three or more consecutive wins against an opponent that is coming off five or more consecutive wins are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Iowa is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games as a favorite of 4 points or fewer. James Franklin is 0-9 SU in true road games against Top 10 teams as a head coach. Bet Iowa Saturday.
|10-09-21||San Jose State v. Colorado State -2.5||Top||14-32||Win||100||48 h 13 m||Show|
20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado State -2.5
The Colorado State Rams have been a completely different team in their last two games. They went on the road and upset Toledo 22-6 as 14.5-point underdogs. And they gave Iowa their toughest test of the season in a 14-24 road loss at 24-point dogs.
Now the Rams had last week off and have had two weeks to prepare for San Jose State. They faced a Spartans team that has been extremely disappointing this season. They lost by 23 at USC, failed to cover in a 4-point win at Hawaii, lost by 20 at Western Michigan, and only beat New Mexico State by 6 last week as 25.5-point favorites.
San Jose State could get QB Nick Starkel back this week as he is listed as questionable. But I like Colorado State either way in this spot. The Spartans are overvalued this season after winning the Mountain West last year and should continue to be great fade material all season.
The Spartans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing record. San Jose State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. Colorado State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Colorado State Saturday.
|10-09-21||Georgia v. Auburn +15.5||34-10||Loss||-107||48 h 13 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn +15.5
The stock couldn't be higher on Georgia right now after a 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season. It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs now that they will be playing their toughest test of the season on the road at Auburn this week.
Georgia has beaten up on teams at home with wins over UAB, South Carolina and Arkansas. Their only true road win came at Vanderbilt. So this will be by far their stiffest test of the season against an Auburn team that is 3-0 at home and winning by 40.7 points per game.
Auburn went on the road and nearly upset Penn State, another team that is currently ranked in the Top 5. So the Tigers have proven they can hang with the big boys. And they should not be more than two-touchdown underdogs to Georgia this week.
Auburn's defense is good enough to keep this game close. The Tigers are only giving up 16.2 points and 298.4 yards per game. Georgia's offense is good, but it's not good enough to hang a big number on this Auburn defense, which is what it's going to take to cover this big of a number.
Auburn is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. very good defensive teams that give up 14 points per game or fewer. The Tigers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games. Auburn is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog. The home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Roll with Auburn Saturday.
|10-09-21||Virginia v. Louisville -2.5||34-33||Loss||-110||48 h 43 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisville -2.5
The Louisville Cardinals have only lost to 2 of the best teams in the country in Ole Miss and Wake Forest. And both of those losses came on the road. They have been great at home with a 27-point win over Eastern Kentucky and an upset of UCF, while also upsetting Florida State on the road.
After two straight road game, the Cardinals are back home here Saturday hosting Virginia. Their offense is hitting on all cylinders with 501 yards against UCF and 522 yards against Wake Forest. They should torch a shaky Virginia defense that gave up 699 yards in a 39-59 loss at North Carolina and 473 more yards in a 17-37 home loss to Wake Forest to give them a common opponent with Louisville only losing 34-37 at Wake Forest.
I think Virginia is getting too much respect for its 30-28 upset win at Miami last time out. But the Hurricanes were without starting QB D'Eriq King in that game, so you have to take it with a grain of salt. This is going to be a much stiffer test for them against Malik Cunningham, who is completing 63.8% of his passes for 1,307 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 309 yards and 10 scores.
Virginia is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 450 or more yards in two consecutive games. The Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Plays against all teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Virginia) - with a poor turnover defense forcing one or fewer turnovers per game, after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Louisville Saturday.
|10-09-21||Akron +15 v. Bowling Green||Top||35-20||Win||100||71 h 13 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Akron +15
It's time to 'sell high' on the Bowling Green Falcons. They are 5-0 ATS this season and the last remaining unbeaten team ATS. Now they are being asked to lay 15 points to Akron just a couple weeks after being a 1-point favorite over FCS Murray State. They are clearly overvalued right now.
Everyone knows about Bowling Green's upset win over Minnesota as a 30.5-point underdog. So they automatically assume this team is good. But they also lost to South Alabama and Kent State, and lost to Tennessee by 32. Their only other win came against Murray State at home.
We'll 'buy low' on Akron, which is just 1-4 ATS this season and the betting public wants nothing to do with them. Two of the losses came to Auburn and Ohio State. And they deserved to cover against the Buckeyes. They beat Bryant by 21 and lost to Temple by 21 and Ohio by 17. They can definitely stay within two touchdowns of Bowling Green this week.
Akron has found its quarterback. Demarcus Irons Jr. took over for Kato Nelson three games back and has given the offense life. He is completing 69.1% of his passes with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio. But his dual-threat ability is what has been impressive. Irons has rushed for 251 yards and two scores as well.
Akron's problem defensively is stopping the run, but they face a Bowling Green team that can't run the football. The Falcons are only averaging 47 rushing yards per game and 1.7 per carry. Their offense is only averaging 277 yards per game overall and 4.4 yards per play. It's tough to trust them to cover this big of a number with that type of offense.
The Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit home loss. The Falcons are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games. Bowling Green is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite. I think home-field advantage is being factored into this line too much as well as the Falcons won't have a big crowd for this early 12:00 EST start. Bet Akron Saturday.
|10-09-21||Oklahoma v. Texas +3.5||55-48||Loss||-113||45 h 43 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Texas Big 12 Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas +3.5
The Oklahoma Sooners are fortunate to be 5-0 this season despite playing an easy schedule. They have four wins by one score over Tulane (40-35), Nebraska (23-16), West Virginia (16-13) and Kansas State (37-31). They only outgained Tulane by 40 yards, Nebraska by 24 yards, WVU by 66 yards and were outgained by 28 yards by Kansas State.
Now the Sooners will meet their match against a Texas team that is the real deal and will be their stiffest competition yet. The Longhorns have been impressive in every game outside of their loss at Arkansas, and it turns out Arkansas is pretty good. They beat Louisiana-Lafayette by 20, beat Rice by 58, beat Texas Tech by 35 and handled their business in a 5-point win at TCU.
Texas wants to put an end to a three-game losing streak in this rivalry and will be extra motivated after losing in overtime to Oklahoma last season. This is the worst Oklahoma offense they've had in years, and the defense is not as good as everyone said it was going to be coming into the season. They are ripe for the picking this season and those four one-score wins have shown it.
Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games coming in. The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Texas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. The Longhorns are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with Texas Saturday.
|10-08-21||Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati||Top||3-52||Loss||-110||30 h 36 m||Show|
25* CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple +29.5
Even though this is a standalone game on a Friday night, the Cincinnati Bearcats are in a letdown spot. They are coming off a massive 24-13 win over Notre Dame last week. That followed up a comeback win over Indiana the previous week. And they have UCF on deck next week, making this a sandwich spot.
That was a bad spot for Notre Dame last week. They were facing their second straight team coming off a bye. They were a tired team. The Fighting Irish aren't very good either as they were life and death with both Toledo and Florida State, and they beat a Wisconsin team that is not as good as we all thought.
Temple has impressive me this season, opening 3-2 with an upset win as an 11-point underdog to Memphis last week. The only losses came to Rutgers and Boston College in games that were both much closer than the final scores. Rutgers only outgained them by 104 yards and they actually outgained Boston College by 24 yards.
Temple has a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' here trying to upset this Top 5 team on their schedule in Cincinnati. And I think the Owls have what it takes defensively to stay within four touchdowns. They are only giving up 313 yards.4 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.
Cincinnati's numbers don't look like that of a Top 5 team. They are only gaining 38 more yards per game on offense than their opponents normally allow. They are only giving up 8 yards per game less on defense than their opponents normally average. They are built to win low-scoring, defensive games. So that makes it tough for them to cover these huge numbers.
Cincinnati hasn't won by more than 24 points against Temple in any of the last 22 meetings. That makes for a 22-0 system backing the Owls pertaining to this 29.5-point spread. Temple is actually 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Owls are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games as road underdogs. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet Temple Friday.
|10-08-21||Braves +145 v. Brewers||1-2||Loss||-100||7 h 48 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +145
The Atlanta Braves have been playing meaningful baseball for the past month. They have risen to the occasion by going 12-2 in their last 14 games overall to clinch the NL East. They come into this series with the Milwaukee Brewers with all the momentum.
The Brewers have had the NL Central clinched for a few weeks now. They haven't been playing meaningful baseball, and it has shown as they have gone 4-10 in their last 14 games overall. It's hard to just flip that switch for the postseason. And I think Game 1 is a good time to fade them because of it.
Of course, I also like backing Charlie Morton, who is 14-6 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.039 WHIP In 33 starts this season. Morton is 8-3 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 15 road starts. He is 1-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.830 WHIP in his last three starts as well.
Corbin Burnes has great season-long numbers. But one of his worst starts of the season came against the Braves on July 30th in his lone career start against them. He allowed 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 innings in that start. The Braves are 7-0 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Braves Friday.
|10-07-21||Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5||Top||26-17||Win||100||34 h 56 m||Show|
20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 54.5
The Los Angeles Rams have played two straight high-powered offenses in the Tampa Bay Bucs and Arizona Cardinals. Both games wen over the total, and that has this total against the Seattle Seahawks inflated. There's definitely value in this UNDER Thursday night.
Seattle has also played three straight very good offenses in the Titans, Vikings and 49ers. That also has this total inflated as both of these teams have better defenses than the numbers would show to this point. And Seattle plays at a slow pace, averaging just 50 players per game. The Rams only average 58 plays per game on offense.
Division games are always played closer to the vest. Teams are more familiar with one another playing each other twice a season. They always tend to be lower-scoring. That has been the case in this series, too.
The Rams and Seahawks have combined for 50 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings. They combined for 50, 29, 39 and 40 points in each of the last four meetings, respectively. That's an average of just 39.5 combined points per game, which is 15 points less than this 54.5-point total.
The UNDER is 20-7 in Rams last 27 games as favorites. The UNDER is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall. Seattle is 6-0 UNDER vs. teams that allow 375 or more yards per game over the last three seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|10-07-21||Red Sox v. Rays -141||Top||0-5||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
20* Red Sox/Rays Game 1 No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -141
The Tampa Bay Rays should be bigger favorites over the Boston Red Sox tonight with their advantage on the mound. Look for them to win this Game 1 running away at home.
Shane McClanahan is 10-6 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in 25 starts this season. He has owned the Red Sox with a 2.81 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in three career starts against them, all of which have come in 2021.
Eduardo Rodriquez is 12-8 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.398 WHIP in 31 starts this season. Rodriquez is 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Rays. He allowed 6 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of a 12-7 loss to the Rays in his last start against them on September 7th.
The Rays are 11-4 in the last 15 meetings. Tampa Bay is 7-2 in its last nine home meetings with Boston. The Red Sox are 5-14 in their last 19 games as underdogs. Tampa Bay is 45-17 in its last 62 home games. Take the Rays Thursday.
|10-07-21||Houston v. Tulane OVER 59.5||40-22||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
15* Houston/Tulane ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 59.5
This has the makings of a shootout tonight in Tulane. These are two very good offenses up against two suspect defenses. And based on the series history, this has tended to be a shootout every year.
Tulane has faced a brutal schedule of opposing defenses and has still managed 35.0 points per game this season. The Green Wave are giving up 40.2 points per game against some very good offenses overall. And it won't get much easier for them against Houston tonight.
The Cougars are averaging 36.6 points per game this season. They just hung 45 on a very good Tulsa defense last week. And they have scored 44 or more in three of their last four. But Houston's defensive numbers are skewed because they have played such an easy schedule of opposing offenses with their last four games coming against Rice, Grambling, Navy and Tulsa. They gave up 38 points to Texas Tech in the opener.
Houston and Tulane have combined for 80, 69 and 63 points in their last three meetings, respectively. So we only need to top 59.5 points here. The OVER is 10-4-1 in Cougars last 15 road games. The OVER is 4-0 in Cougars last four games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 5-1 in Green Wave last six games overall. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.
|10-06-21||Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers||Top||1-3||Loss||-108||12 h 38 m||Show|
20* Cardinals/Dodgers Wild Card No-Brainer on St. Louis +1.5 (-108)
It's rare that I take a team +1.5 on the Run Line, but I think that's where the value is in this wild card game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers. It's going to be a low scoring game, and I can see it decided by one run either way with these two starting pitchers.
Adam Wainwright has resurrected his career this season, going 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 32 starts. Wainwright is 7-6 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.126 WHIP in 17 career starts against the Dodgers. He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts against the Dodgers.
Max Scherzer had a great season, but he really struggled down the stretch. He has posted an 8.71 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 1/3 innings.
The Cardinals are 11-0 in their last 11 road games. St. Louis is 4-0 in Wainwright's last four starts against the Dodgers. The Cardinals are 13-2 in Wainwright's last 15 starts following a loss. Bet the Cardinals on the Run Line Wednesday.
|10-05-21||Yankees v. Red Sox +114||Top||2-6||Win||114||10 h 16 m||Show|
20* Yankees/Red Sox Wild Card No-Brainer on Boston +114
The Boston Red Sox won three straight to close to get into the wild card. The New York Yankees lost two of their last three and were held to a total of 6 runs in the three games. I think there's value getting the Red Sox as home underdogs in this wild card game tonight.
Nathan Eovaldi has been consistent all season for the Red Sox, going 11-9 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 32 starts, including 6-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 19 home starts. He has had great success against the Yankees, going 4-4 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 13 career starts against them.
Gerrit Cole comes in really struggling to find his groove. He is 1-1 with a 7.64 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 15 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 2/3 innings. Cole is 5-4 with a 4.02 ERA in 11 career starts against Boston.
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last nine playoff games as underdogs. Bet the Red Sox Tuesday.
|10-04-21||Raiders +3.5 v. Chargers||Top||14-28||Loss||-115||126 h 26 m||Show|
20* Raiders/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Las Vegas +3.5
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 this season and have played three very good teams in the Ravens, Steelers and Dolphins. Those three teams all have great defenses, and this Oakland offense has lit up the scoreboard and the numbers against all three.
The Raiders are scoring 30.0 points per game this season and averaging 471.0 yards per game. Derek Carr has already thrown for 1,203 yards in three games. The Raiders definitely deserved to win all three games as they outgained the Ravens by 85 yards, the Steelers by 94 yards and the Dolphins by 167 yards.
The Chargers are 2-1 this season despite getting outgained in two games. They were outgained by 85 yards by the Chiefs last week. And because they pulled the upset win over such a big rival and defending Super Bowl champ, this is actually a letdown spot for the Chargers. We saw the Ravens nearly lose to the Lions last week after upsetting the Chiefs the week before.
With this game being played in Los Angeles there's going to be a ton of Raiders fans there. It might actually be a home-field advantage for them. So this line makes no sense with the Chargers being 3.5-point favorites considering these are basically even teams. There is value with the Raiders this week because of it.
Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday games. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to Los Angeles. The underdog is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Bet the Raiders Monday.
|10-03-21||Bucs v. Patriots +7||Top||19-17||Win||100||103 h 32 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Patriots NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England +7
The betting public is all over the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs in this game. They don't believe Tom Brady is going to lose to his former team. But that is where the point spread is the great equalizer, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Bucs here as 7-point road favorites against the Patriots.
The Bucs are fortunate to be 2-1 this season. They overcame four turnovers in the opener and needed a last-second field goal to beat the Cowboys 31-29, failing to cover as 10-point favorites. They only held a 3-point lead over the Falcons at home in the 2nd half before getting two straight pick-6's that turned the game. And last week they lost outright 24-34 at the Rams as 1-point favorites.
The defending Super Bowl champion is almost always overvalued, and that was the case with the Chiefs last year. That's the case with the Bucs this year, especially in this spot with Brady returning to face his former team. While Brady and the offense are humming, the defense has been a problem in giving up 29.3 points and 402.0 yards per game this season. They have been awful against the pass, allowing 338 passing yards per game.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Patriots, who are coming off an upset home loss to the New Orleans Saints last week. But the Patriots gave that game away by being -3 in turnovers. It was much closer than the final score, and the Patriots actually outgained the Saints by 48 yards in that contest.
The best unit on the field might be the Patriots defense. They are giving up just 17.0 points per game and 282.3 yards per game this season. Mac Jones has been up against three very good defenses, and this is actually a step down in class from what he has faced thus far in the Dolphins, Saints and Jets. He is primed for his best game of the season.
Tampa Bay is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 275 or more passing yards in three straight games. New England is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games as a home underdog. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Patriots Sunday.
|10-03-21||Browns v. Vikings +2||Top||14-7||Loss||-104||95 h 12 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Vikings +2
The Minnesota Vikings could easily be 3-0 against a very tough schedule thus far. But since they are 1-2 they are undervalued right now. They lost in OT in Week 1 at Cincinnati after fumbling when they were in field goal range for the game-winning kick. They missed an extra point and the potential game-winning 37-yard field goal at Arizona in a 1-point loss in Week 2.
But last week they showed some resiliency and beat the Seahawks handily 30-17 in their first home game of the season. They are a much better home team than a road team under Mike Zimmer through the years. And their offense is hitting on all cylinders this season.
The Vikings are 8th in scoring offense at 29.0 points per game and 3rd in total offense at 425 yards pre game. They didn't miss Dalvin Cook one bit last week as backup Alexander Mattison accounted for 171 yards from scrimmage. But there's a good chance Cook returns this week as he returned to practice.
After losing to the Chiefs on the road in Week 1, the Browns have beaten two of the worst teams in the NFL at home the last two weeks in the Texans and Bears. They basically beat two rookie quarterbacks in those two games as Davis Mills replaced an injured Tyrod Taylor early for the Texans and Justin Fields made his first career start for the Bears.
Now they take a big step up in class here against a motivated Vikings team that wants to get back to .500 on the season. Kirk Cousins is playing some of the best football of his career. Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after a win by more than 14 points. The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites. The Vikings are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs. Bet the Vikings Sunday.
|10-03-21||Washington Football Team -115 v. Falcons||34-30||Win||100||95 h 11 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington ML -115
The Washington Football Team has been a disappointment thus far in 2021. They have gone 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS through three games. It's time to 'buy low' on them, especially considering their two losses came to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Bills and Chargers.
Now Washington takes a big step down in class here against the Atlanta Falcons. This is a Falcons team that was terrible in the preseason and terrible in their first two games, losing 32-6 to the Eagles at home and 48-25 to the Bucs on the road.
But now the Falcons are getting some respect from the books after upsetting the Giants 17-14 on the road last week. That win comes with an asterisk as the Giants lost two of their top receivers during the game and were hamstrung on offense.
Washington has the better defense here, and I wouldn't be surprised if they have the better offense as Matt Ryan has looked washed this season. But I fully expect a rally the troops type of effort from Washington based on comments made by Ron Rivera after the loss to the Bills.
Plays on any teams (Washington) - a good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense that allows at least 5.8 YPP, after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Atlanta is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games vs. teams who force 0.75 turnovers or fewer per game on the season. Rivera is 26-9 ATS off a road loss as a head coach. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with Washington Sunday.
|10-02-21||Northwestern +11.5 v. Nebraska||Top||7-56||Loss||-110||29 h 49 m||Show|
20* Northwestern/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +11.5
We see this yearly with Northwestern. Get off to a slow start then turn it on in the 2nd third of the season. You won't get better value on the Wildcats than what we're getting this week as double-digit dogs to the Nebraska Cornhuskers the rest of the way.
Northwestern has losses to Michigan State and Duke, which aren't that bad of losses as both of those teams are improved. Their handled their business in a 24-6 win over Indiana State, then put together their best performance of the season in a 35-6 win over Ohio as 13.5-point favorites last week.
Now they face a Nebraska team that came close to upsetting both Oklahoma and Michigan State on the road each of the last two weeks. I think that works against the Huskers here. This is a hangover spot after coming so close, and I question their motivation after a 2-3 start. I trust Northwestern's motivation this week as they jump back into Big Ten play.
Nebraska has only covered this number once in its last 10 meetings with Northwestern. The Wildcats either won outright or lost by 11 points or fewer in the other nine meetings. Northwestern has gone 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
The Wildcats are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games as road underdogs. The Wildcats are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 conference games. The Huskers are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 home games. Northwestern is 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Nebraska. Take Northwestern Saturday.
|10-02-21||Western Kentucky +11 v. Michigan State||31-48||Loss||-110||29 h 48 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Western Kentucky +11
The Michigan State Spartans are overvalued due to their 4-0 start this season. This is a bad spot for them now as they step out of conference off their 23-20 (OT) win over Nebraska last week. They get back into Big Ten play next week and will have a hard time getting motivated to play Western Kentucky.
But Western Kentucky is no pushover. The Hilltoppers are close to being 3-0 this season. But they are undervalued due to being 1-2. They only lost 35-38 to at Army as 6-point dogs, and their other loss was a 31-33 setback at home to Indiana as 9.5-point dogs. If they can pay with Indiana, they can play with Michigan State.
The Hilltoppers will never be out of this game due to stud QB Bailey Zappe. He is completing 73.1% of his passes for 1,224 yards with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions through three games. He should be able to pick apart a Michigan State defense that allowed 283 passing yards to Northwestern, 388 to Miami and 255 to Nebraska.
Michigan State is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games when paying with 6 or less days' rest. Michigan State is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three seasons. Bet Western Kentucky Saturday.
|10-02-21||Louisiana Tech +19 v. NC State||Top||27-34||Win||100||27 h 19 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech +19
This is a massive letdown spot for NC State. The Wolfpack upset Clemson 27-21 (OT) as 10.5-point home dogs last week. Now they step out of conference to face LA Tech, and they'll have a very hard time getting up for this game after that massive win.
Louisiana Tech is very close to being 4-0 and underrated right now due to their 2-2 record. They blew a 34-14 4th quarter lead at Mississippi State and lost 34-35 as 20.5-point dogs. They lsot 37-39 on a 33-yard hail mary to SMU as 10.5-point dogs.
Those are two very good teams comparable to NC State. In fact, NC State lost 10-24 at Mississippi State, so Louisiana Tech shouldn't be catching 19 points here. This line should be much closer to 10 points.
There's good news for the Bulldogs too in getting starting QB Austin Kendall back from injury this week. The West Virginia transfer has been great for Skip Holtz, completing 60.6% of his passes for 837 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for three scores and 5.4 per carry this season.
NC State is 0-9 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons. It is losing by nearly 20 points per game in this spot. Holtz is 36-20 ATS as a road underdog in all games as a head coach. The Bulldogs are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 games as road dogs. The Wolfpack are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a win. Roll with Louisiana Tech Saturday.
|10-02-21||South Florida +21.5 v. SMU||17-41||Loss||-110||25 h 18 m||Show|
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida +21.5
The SMU Mustangs are coming off two straight improbable wins to get to 4-0 on the season. They won on a hail mary 39-37 over Louisiana Tech, then followed it up with a 42-34 upset win as 9.5-point dogs at TCU.
This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Mustangs after beating a Big 12 team and fellow Texas team. It's time to 'sell high' on them here as 21.5-point favorites over South Florida. They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Bulls as they were the Horned Frogs last week.
This is a South Florida team that is undervalued due to its 1-3 record. But they have played a brutal schedule of NC State, Florida and BYU. Those are three of the better teams in the country. NC State beat Clemson, Florida nearly upset Alabama, and BYU beat three Pac-12 teams and is unbeaten.
But USF covered against Florida in a 20-42 loss as 29-point dogs. They also gave BYU a run for its money last week, only losing 27-35 as 24-point dogs. And they won't be intimidated by SMU as this is actually a step down in class compared to what they've been facing thus far.
South Florida is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games after a game where they forced zero turnovers. The Bulls are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games after trailing in their previous game by 17 points or more at halftime. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with South Florida Saturday.
|10-02-21||Ole Miss +15 v. Alabama||21-42||Loss||-110||25 h 57 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +15
I'm a big fan of Ole Miss this season and they have not disappointed with their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start with three blowout victories. Their offense with Heisman contender Matt Corrall gives them a chance to win every game they play.
They are averaging 52.7 points and 635.3 yards per game this season. The improvement on defense has been just as impressive. The Rebels are giving up just 20.7 points and 344.7 yards per game.
They gave defending national champion Alabama their toughest test of the season last year. It was tied 42-42 in the 4th quarter and they eventually lost by 15. This Ole Miss team is improved, and Alabama isn't as strong as they were last year, nearly losing to Florida as a similar 14-point favorite in a 2-point win.
You have to love the fact that Lane Kiffin now has two weeks to prepare for Alabama after having a bye last week. The line has already moved towards the Rebels but I still think there's some value here at 14.5 in a game that should be decided by two touchdowns or less.
Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Alabama) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), after scoring 20 points or more in the first half of two straight games are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1992. The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Rebels are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. Take Ole Miss Saturday.
|10-02-21||Michigan v. Wisconsin -120||Top||38-17||Loss||-120||70 h 30 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin ML -120
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Wisconsin Badgers. Their season is on the line after a 1-2 start. But those two losses were to two of the best teams in the country in #4 Penn State & #9 Notre Dame. And both losses were misleading.
They outgained Penn State by 62 yards in their 10-16 home loss. They outgained Notre Dame by 72 yards in their 13-41 loss on a neutral last week. They actually led the Fighting Irish 13-10 early in the 4th quarter after a short field goal. But then Notre Dame returned the next kickoff for a TD. They added two pick 6's late in the game and scored 21 points off non-offensive touchdowns. They outscored the Badgers 31-0 to close the 4th quarter. It doesn't get any more misleading than that.
Wisconsin is favored over a ranked Michigan team for good reason here. The season is on the line for the Badgers if they want to play a factor in the Big Ten title race. They will put their best foot forward this week.
Michigan has feasted on one of the easiest schedules in the country. Their four wins have all come at home over Western Michigan, Washington, Northern Illinois and Rutgers. They struggled in their Big Ten opener against Rutgers last week. They won 20-13 but were outgained by 77 yards. Their offense was held to just 275 yards.
And they will struggle to move the ball on this stout Wisconsin defense that is giving up just 210.3 yards per game and 4 yards per play. Despite the 1-2 start, the Badgers are still outgaining teams by 188 yards per game.
The Badgers have crushed the Wolverines each of the last two years. They won 49-11 on the road in 2020 and 35-14 at home in 2019 as short favorites in both games. The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games. The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with Michigan. You probably won't get better value on Wisconsin for the rest of the season. This is Michigan's first road game. Bet Wisconsin Saturday.
|10-02-21||Duke +20 v. North Carolina||7-38||Loss||-110||21 h 18 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Duke +20
The North Carolina Tar Heels had huge expectations coming into the season as a Top 10 team. But upset losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech have put a damper on that. And I question their motivation the rest of the way.
They were not only beaten by Georgia Tech, they were dominated physically in a 22-45 loss as 14.5-point favorites. That's a bad sign for them moving forward, and I cannot believe they are getting this much respect as 20-point favorites over rival Duke this week.
Duke is quietly improved this season. They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS and really could easily be 4-0. Their lone loss came 28-31 at Charlotte, a game they gained 580 yards of offense in and actually outgained the 49ers by 102 yards. They went on to outgain their next three opponents by 169, 156 and 77 yards in three straight victories.
This Duke offense clearly has the firepower to keep up with North Carolina. In fact, the Blue Devils actually have better season long stats on offense. They average 38.8 points and 544.5 yards per game, while UNC averages 37.5 points and 507.3 yards per game. And it's not like the Tar Heels are stopping anyone, allowing 29.5 points per game this season compared to 26.0 for Duke.
The Blue Devils are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game. David Cutcliffe is 10-1 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards per game in his last three games as a head coach. The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. Bet Duke Saturday.
|10-01-21||Angels v. Mariners -150||Top||2-1||Loss||-150||10 h 56 m||Show|
20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -150
The Seattle Mariners have gone 10-1 in their last 11 games overall to pull even with the Boston Red Sox for the second wild card spot in the American League. They aren't about to let up now, and they should handle the Los Angeles Angels tonight.
The Angels have gone just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall. It won't get any easier for them against Marco Gonzalez, who is 10-5 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.165 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in 12 home starts. Gonzalez owns the Angels, going 9-1 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 17 career starts against them.
Jose Suarez is 4-7 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in 13 starts this season for the Angels and averaging just 5.1 innings per start. Suarez has posted a 4.38 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in five career starts against the Mariners. He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start against the Mariners on September 24th. Take the Mariners Friday.
|10-01-21||BYU v. Utah State +10||Top||34-20||Loss||-115||14 h 53 m||Show|
20* BYU/Utah State CFB Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah State +10
The BYU Cougars are overvalued right now due to their 4-0 start and No. 13 ranking. I successfully faded them last week and cashed in South Florida as a 24-point underdog in a 27-35 loss, and I'll gladly go against the Cougars again here as double-digit road favorites against Utah State.
Utah State was one of the most impressive teams in the country in the first three weeks. They went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with upset road wins at Washington State as 18-point dogs and at Air Force as 9-point dogs.
But now it's time to 'buy low' on the Aggies this week after they lost 27-3 to Boise State last week. That was one of the most misleading finals of the week. Utah State had 443 total yards and only 3 points in that game. That's because they committed three turnovers.
Utah State has one of the best offenses in the country and will never be out of this game because of it. The Aggies average 31.5 points and 514.0 yards per game this season. Blake Anderson brought a ton of talent with him over from Arkansas State, and it is especially paying off on offense.
BYU is also overvalued due to three wins over Pac-12 teams. But they are 4-0 despite only outgaining their opponents by 1.3 yards per game on the season. That's more like a .500 team than one that is 4-0.
BYU is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse. The Cougars are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as favorites. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit home loss. Utah State is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 Friday games. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bet Utah State Friday.
|10-01-21||Tigers +234 v. White Sox||1-8||Loss||-100||8 h 52 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +234
The Detroit Tigers have quietly been one of the most profitable teams in baseball this season. You would be up 26 units backing the Tigers in every game this season. They have gone 11-8 in their last 19 games overall despite being underdogs in every game.
The White Sox don't have much to play for. They are two games behind the Astros for the 2nd seed and would need help to catch them. They shouldn't be this big of favorites considering the situation they are in, more focused on getting ready for the postseason than winning games right now.
I'll gladly back Wily Peralta as this big of an underdog. Peralta is 4-4 with a 3.13 ERA in 17 starts this season. He has gone 1-1 with a 1.02 ERA in his last three starts as well. He'll be opposed by Lance Lynn, who allowed 6 earned runs in 6 innings in a 6-0 loss to the Indians as a -185 favorite in his last start. Roll with the Tigers Friday.
|09-30-21||Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 45.5||Top||21-24||Loss||-105||31 h 31 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Bengals OVER 45.5
Prime time OVERS have been money makers the last couple seasons. And this game sets up to be an OVER game tonight with these two teams in the Jaguars and Bengals. Both have suspect defenses.
The Jaguars have really been poor defensively. They rank 28th in scoring defense at 30.3 points per game and 29th in total defense at 418 yards per game. And they've only played one good offense in the Cardinals, who lite them up for 31 points last week. The other two teams were the Broncos and Texans.
The Cincinnati Bengals have good defensive numbers thus far and may be improved on that side of the ball, but they have played two poor offenses in the Bears and Steelers. They did give up 24 points and 403 total yards to the best offense they have faced in the Vikings.
The Jaguars have been able to move the football with 395 yards against the Texans and 361 yards against the Cardinals. But they have killed themselves with turnovers, committing 10 of them already in three games. That can also help the OVER by setting up easy scores for the Bengals.
Cincinnati does have an elite offense with great skill players. They have played three tough defenses and have fared well against the Vikings, Bears and Steelers. This is a big step down in class for them, and Joe Burrow is primed for his best game of the season. I'm expecting the Bengals to score 30-plus to carry the load on this OVER.
Cincinnati is 6-0 OVER in home games with a total of 45.5 or higher over the last three seasons. We are seeing 56.3 combined points per game in this spot. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|09-30-21||Red Sox -1.5 v. Orioles||2-6||Loss||-142||11 h 5 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-142)
The Boston Red Sox are trying to hang on to a wild card spot in the American League. They came through with a 6-0 victory yesterday over the Baltimore Orioles. And I expect another blowout victory today due to their advantage on the mound.
Nick Pivetta has been at his best on the road this season, going 5-5 with a 3.55 ERA in 14 starts. Pivetta has posted a 2.51 ERA in his last three starts coming in, and two of those were against the Yankees and White Sox. He has never lost to the Orioles, going 6-0 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in seven career starts against them.
Alexander Wells is still in search of his first victory this season. He is 0-3 with an 8.13 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in seven starts. Wells faced the Red Sox on September 19th two starts back, allowing 5 earned runs in 5 innings.
Baltimore is 4-28 vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 runs per game or more in the second half of the season this season and losing by nearly 5 runs per game in this spot. The Red Sox are 7-1 in their last eight meetings with the Orioles with all seven wins coming by two runs or more. Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Thursday.
|09-29-21||A's v. Mariners +104||Top||2-4||Win||104||13 h 4 m||Show|
20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners +104
The Seattle Mariners are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall to pull within 0.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League. They are continuing to battle to try and make the postseason, and they should not be underdogs to the Oakland A's, who are basically eliminated from postseason contention at 3.5 games out.
Logan Gilbert is 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in his last three starts for the Mariners. He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in all three of his starts against the A's this season.
Frankie Montas is 13-9 with a 3.48 ERA in 31 starts this season. But Montas has lost both of his starts against the Mariners while allowing 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 innings for a 5.25 ERA.
Seattle is 11-0 in its last 11 meetings with Oakland. The A's are 6-16 in their last 22 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Mariners Wednesday.
|09-28-21||A's v. Mariners +111||2-4||Win||111||11 h 17 m||Show|
15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +111
The Seattle Mariners are 8-1 in their last nine games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League. They are continuing to battle to try and make the postseason, and they should not be underdogs to the Oakland A's, who are basically eliminated from postseason contention.
Chris Bassitt just recently returned from an IL stint and only pitched 3 innings in his first start back. He will be limited again tonight. Bassitt is 1-4 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 11 career starts against Seattle.
Tyler Anderson has been at his best at home this season with a 3.16 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in 12 home starts. Anderson has faced the A's twice in his career, going 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA and 0.947 WHIP while allowing just one earned run in 12 2/3 innings.
Seattle is 10-0 in its last 10 meetings with Oakland. The A's are 6-15 in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Mariners Tuesday.
|09-28-21||Brewers v. Cardinals +108||Top||2-6||Win||108||9 h 17 m||Show|
20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals +108
The St. Louis Cardinals are 16-0 in their last 16 games overall. They now can clinch the 2nd wild card spot in the National League with a win tonight. They will want to go ahead and get that out of the way here against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have nothing to play for the rest of the way as they are locked into the No. 2 seed in the National League.
Adam Wainwright has resurrected his career this season in going 16-7 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in 31 starts, including 8-5 with a 2.72 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in 18 home starts. Wainwright owns the Brewers, going 19-12 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.088 WHIP in 41 career starts against them.
Brandon Woodruff is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA in his last two starts against the Cardinals this season, allowing 7 earned runs in 11 innings. Bet the Cardinals Tuesday.
|09-27-21||A's v. Mariners -107||Top||4-13||Win||100||14 h 49 m||Show|
20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -107
The Seattle Mariners are 7-1 in their last eight games overall to pull within two games of the final wild card spot in the American League. They are continuing to battle to try and make the postseason, and they should be bigger favorites over the Oakland A's here tonight.
Chris Flexen is 13-6 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.240 WHIP in 29 starts this season for the Mariners. Flexen has been at his best at home, going 6-5 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 15 starts in Seattle. He is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts against the A's this season, allowing just 4 earned runs in 19 innings.
Cole Irvin is 10-14 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.411 WHIP in 30 starts this season, including 6-7 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.347 WHIP in 15 road starts. Irvin has never beaten the Mariners, going 0-4 with a 7.56 ERA and 2.160 WHIP in four career starts against them.
The Mariners are 18-4 in Flexen's 22 starts with a total set of 8.5 to 10 this season. Seattle is 9-0 in its last nine meetings with Oakland. The A's are 6-14 in their last 20 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Mariners Monday.
|09-27-21||Eagles +4 v. Cowboys||Top||21-41||Loss||-106||143 h 32 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +4
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Cowboys this week. They took advantage of four Tampa Bay turnovers in Week 1 and covered in a 29-31 loss as 9-point underdogs. Then last week they went on the road and upset the Chargers 20-17 as 3-point dogs on a last-second 56-yard field goal by Greg Zurlein.
So now the Cowboys go from being dogs in both of those games and substantial dogs at that to 4-point home favorites here against the Philadelphia Eagles. This is a big overreaction as this game should be lined closer to a pick 'em. There's a ton of value on the Eagles this week for a number of different reasons.
The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL again this year after having one of the worst last year. They are giving up 419.5 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. Compare that to Philadelphia, which is giving up just 283 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play this season, and you can see why I'm siding with the Eagles. They just held the 49ers to 17 points and 306 total yards last week after giving up just 6 points and 260 total yards to the Falcons in Week 1.
The Eagles did struggle offensively last week against a very good 49ers defense, but they had their chances in that game and still outgained them with 328 total yards. The Eagles are averaging 6.2 yards per play this season, which isn't far behind the Cowboys, who are averaging 6.4 yards per play.
And the injury situation is worse for the Cowboys than it is for the Eagles. They are without T La'el Collins, WR Michael Gallup and DE Demarcus Lawrence. They also have seven players questionable heading into this game, including WR Amari Cooper. Jalen Hurts will make enough players to keep the Eagles in this game, and there's no question I trust Philadelphia's defense to get more stops than Dallas in this one.
Plays against home favorites (Dallas) - a poor team from last season that was outscored by 4.0 points per game or more, versus division opponents are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1993. The Cowboys are 22-47 ATS in their last 69 games as home favorites. Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite overall. Roll with the Eagles Monday.
|09-26-21||Packers v. 49ers OVER 49||Top||30-28||Win||100||121 h 35 m||Show|
20* Packers/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 49
The Green Bay Packers gave up 55 combined points to the Saints and Lions the first two weeks. Those aren't two particularly good offenses. And the Packers continue to struggle stopping the run this year, which has always been a problem for them. They rank 26th in the NFL in giving up 4.8 yards per carry.
The 49ers have always been able to run the ball down Green Bay's throats in recent meetings. They will be able to do whatever they want offensively in this one. The 49ers have scored 29.0 points per game in their first two games with a nice balance of run and pass. They'll be up against a 49ers defense that is missing two of its best players in LB Dre Greenlaw and CB Jason Verrett.
The weakness of the entire 49ers team is their secondary, which is bad news going up against a guy like Aaron Rodgers. He got right last week against the Lions in leading the Packers to 35 points and four touchdown passes. He looked like his old self and should build on that this week by matching the 49ers score for score.
These teams met in the 2019-20 playoffs and combined for 57 points in a 37-20 San Francisco victory. Then last year they combined for 51 points in a 34-17 victory by the Packers that saw the 49ers missing several key players on offense due to injuries, including QB Jimmy G. I think they have no problem topping 49 points for a third straight meeting here.
The OVER is 19-10 in Kyle Shanahan's 29 games as a favorite as the coach of San Francisco. The OVER is 4-0 in Packers last four games as underdogs. The OVER is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Packers last six Week 3 games. The OVER is 36-17 in Packers last 53 September games. The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.
|09-26-21||Bucs v. Rams +1||Top||24-34||Win||100||115 h 43 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Rams NFC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +1
No team has impressed me more than the Los Angeles Rams through two games. After beating the Bears 34-14 at home in Week 1, they went on the road in Week 2 and beat the Colts 27-24. That was even after handing the Colts seven free points on special teams when they snapped the ball into the up man and the Colts recovered it in the end zone.
The Rams are averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and giving up just 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining their opponents by 1.9 yards per play. They have the same elite defense that they've had in years' past, and now they finally have a QB in Matthew Stafford fit for running Sean McVay's offense. Stafford is completing 69.6% of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging a ridiculous 10.7 yards per attempt.
The Bucs are overhyped after their 2-0 start that has seen them score 31 points against the Cowboys and 48 more against the Falcons. But they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Cowboys, and they got 14 points handed to them by the Falcons on tipped balls that resulted in pick-6's. That was a 28-25 game in the 4th quarter before the Bucs scored three touchdowns without even blinking to put it away. And the Falcons are terrible.
The Bucs put up gaudy offensive numbers against two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Now they take a big step up in class here against the Rams, who led the NFL in total defense last year. And we remember what the Rams did to them last year. They went on the road at Tampa Bay and won 27-24 while limiting the Bucs to just 251 total yards.
Tom Brady had one of his worst games of the season, completing 26-of-48 passes for 216 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Even Jared Goff threw for 376 yards and three touchdowns on this Tampa Bay defense, so you can imagine what Stafford is going to do. That's especially the case with all of the injuries the Bucs have in the secondary that has seen them give up 342 passing yards per game through two games thus far.
The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss. Los Angeles is 22-8-1 ATS in its last 31 vs. NFC opponents. The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Bucs. Roll with the Rams Sunday.
|09-26-21||Braves +142 v. Padres||4-3||Win||142||8 h 47 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +142
The Atlanta Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games overall and coming up clutch down the stretch as they try and clinch the NL East. But they still only lead the Philadelphia Phillies by 1.5 games with eight games left. There's still work to be done.
Now they go for the sweep of the lowly San Diego Padres, who were just eliminated from the playoffs yesterday and have nothing to play for now. They have pretty much packed it in for weeks, going just 3-11 in their last 14 games overall.
San Diego starter Joe Musgrove has struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in his last three starts. Musgrove has posted a 5.55 ERA in five career starts against Atlanta. He and the Padres are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today as more than -150 favorites. Roll with the Braves Sunday.
|09-26-21||Saints v. Patriots -2.5||Top||28-13||Loss||-118||111 h 30 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New England Patriots -2.5
The New Orleans Saints have been on the road for a month due to the hurricane. It has been a terrible travel situation for them and they have to be getting fatigued both mentally and physically. I think we saw some of that last week in their 26-7 loss to Carolina. And I don't think it's going to get much better for them this week on the road at New England.
After taking advantage of a bad spot for the Packers, who were rusty without Aaron Rodgers most of training camp in a 38-3 win by the Saints, New Orleans came back down to reality last week. Carolina beat them up and down the field. They held the Saints to just 128 total yards in the first meaningful road start for Jameis Winston. He want 11-of-22 for 111 yards with two interceptions in defeat. He was also sacked four times.
I don't think it was any coincidence that the offense struggled considering they were missing as many as six offensive coaches due to COVID. Those guys aren't likely to be back this week. And they are still without WR's Malcolm Thomas and Tre'quan Smith as well as starting C Erik McCoy. Defensively, the Saints are missing LB Kwon Alexander, DE Marcus Davenport and could be without their top CB in Marshon Lattimore again this week.
After giving the game away with a fumble at the goal line in a 16-17 home loss to the Dolphins in Week 1, the Patriots responded with an emphatic 25-6 beat down of the New York Jets on the road in Week 2. That's the same Jets team that only lost by 5 to the Panthers the previous week, a Panthers team that beat the Saints by 19. The Patriots forced four interceptions from Zach Wilson and will likely force a couple more from Winston this week.
The Patriots have been able to run the ball for over 100 yards each of their first two games, and Mac Jones isn't making mistakes. Jones is completing 73.9% of his passes with one touchdown and zero interceptions this season and easily looks like the best of the rookie quarterbacks through two weeks.
This Patriots defense looks much improved this year, too. They got back a handful of players that opted out last year and it has made a big difference. New England is only giving up 11.5 points per game and 297.5 yards per game through two games. They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 5th in total defense.
Bill Belichick is 81-45 ATS off a division game as the coach of the Patriots. Belichick is 23-9 ATS after allowing 6 points or less as the coach of New England. The Patriots are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a win by more than 14 points. Take the Patriots Sunday.
|09-26-21||Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs||30-24||Win||100||111 h 18 m||Show|
15* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +6.5
I've been extremely impressed with the Los Angeles Chargers through two weeks. They really should be 2-0. They dominated more than the final score showed in their 20-16 victory at Washington in Week 1. They racked up 424 total yards on a good Washington defense and outgained them by 165 yards.
Last week, the refs cost them the game against the Cowboys in a 17-20 loss on a 56-yard field goal at the buzzer by Greg Zurlein. They had 408 more yards against the Cowboys, and Justin Herbert is quickly becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He is completing 70.5% of his passes for 675 yards and averaging 7.7 yards per attempt this season.
The Kansas City Chiefs were fortunate to come back from a 9-point deficit late to beat the Browns 33-29 in Week 1. Then last week they stumbled and lost 35-36 to the Baltimore Ravens despite getting a pick-six in that contest. Their defense just cannot be trusted. They rank last in the NFL in total defense at 469 yards per game and last in yards per play (7.6) allowed.
Dating back to last season, the Chiefs are now just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They just don't beat teams by more than one score because of their dreadful defense, so getting nearly a full touchdown here with the Chargers is an excellent value. They'll never be out of this game with Herbert. And the Chargers have the much better defense. Holding Washington to 16 points and Dallas to 20 is no small feat.
Last year, the Chargers only lost 20-23 at home as 9-point underdogs to the Chiefs. They had 479 total yards in that defeat. They came back and won 38-21 in Week 17 on the road and had 416 more yards. I would be shocked if the Chiefs won by a touchdown or more here. And we're quickly seeing that the Super Bowl loser hangover is real with the Chiefs off to an 0-2 ATS start. Yet they keep getting priced like they are the best team in the NFL week after week, which just isn't the case with their leaky defense..
Plays on road underdogs or PK (LA Chargers) - an excellent passing team from last season that averaged 275 or more passing yards per game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempt last game are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Chargers are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games off an upset loss as a home favorite. Los Angeles is 35-14-4 ATS in its last 53 games as a road underdog. The Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Kansas City. Take the Chargers Sunday.
|09-26-21||Washington Football Team +9.5 v. Bills||21-43||Loss||-118||111 h 18 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +9.5
Washington hasn't lost a game by more than 8 points in any of their last 14 games dating back to last season. That makes for a 14-0 system backing Washington pertaining to this 9.5-point spread against the Bills. This team has been a money-making machine as an underdog.
I like the spot for Washington getting extra time to prepare after beating the Giants on Thursday last week. Taylor Heinicke was excellent against the Giants. He threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. He led the game-winning drive in the final couple minutes. And he should make even more improvements this week with extra practice time to prepare to be the starter.
Washington's defense has too much talent to play as poorly as it has to this point. Ron Rivera called out his defense after that win and they should play with a chip on their shoulder this week. And it's actually a 'buy low' spot on Washington after failing to cover the spread in each of their first two games despite going 1-1 SU.
This is a great time to 'sell high' on Buffalo off its 35-0 win at Miami last week. The Bills were fortunate that Tua Tagovailoa got hurt in that game and they got to face backup Jacoby Brissett. And the Bills just simply own the Dolphins, so it wasn't a surprise. Remember, the Bills were upset at home by the Steelers in Week 1. And look how bad the Steelers played last week in an upset loss to the Raiders.
Josh Allen has yet to get going. He is completing just 56% of his passes and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt. Washington's defense is good enough to keep him in check. Buffalo is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games off a division win by more than 10 points. Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games off a win. Bet Washington Sunday.
|09-25-21||South Florida +23.5 v. BYU||27-35||Win||100||66 h 9 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on South Florida +23
A lot of bettors were on Arizona State last week thinking it would be a letdown spot for BYU off back-to-back Pac-12 wins over Arizona and their hated rivals in BYU. But it wasn't a letdown spot at all because another ranked Pac-12 team was coming to Provo, and the Cougars handled their business in a 27-17 win as 3.5-point dogs.
That game was a little misleading though as Arizona State gave the game away by committing four turnovers and actually outgained the Cougars by 65 yards. Keep in mind BYU was also outgianed by 58 yards by Arizona in the opener in a 24-16 win. That win looks even worse now after Arizona went on to lose to San Diego State 14-38 in Week 2 and outright as 26-point favorites to Northern Arizona in Week 3.
This is the letdown spot for BYU. After facing three straight Pac-12 opponents, including the last two being ranked, the Cougars will fall flat on their faces with a poor South Florida team coming to town. There's no way they will be up for USF like they were Utah and ASU. And now BYU is the No. 15 ranked team in the country, and with that ranking comes a point spread tax.
South Florida showed big improvements from Week 1 to Week 2. After losing their opener 45-0 to NC State, they covered as 29-point dogs in a 20-42 home loss to Florida. And Florida nearly beat Alabama last week. They made more strides last week by handling their business in a 38-17 win over Florida A&M. And they will relish this opportunity to go on the road to try and knock off a ranked BYU team this week. I like the fact that they have played a tough strength of schedule with Florida & NC State already so they won't be intimidated by BYU, either.
South Florida is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss, including 5-0 ATS in its last five games in this situation. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. South Florida is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four vs. Independent teams. BYU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse. Roll with South Florida Saturday.
|09-25-21||Giants -137 v. Rockies||7-2||Win||100||20 h 11 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco Giants -137
The San Francisco Giants are trying to fend off the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the NL West. I think we are getting them at a great value here as a short road favorite over the Colorado Rockies Saturday.
The Giants have a big advantage on the mound with Anthony DeSclafini, who is 12-7 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 29 starts this season. He owns the Rockies, going 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in seven career starts against them.
Jon Gray is 8-11 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.318 WHIP in 27 starts this season for the Rockies. Gray does not enjoy facing the Giants, going 2-7 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in 15 career starts against them.
The Giants are 42-16 in their last 58 road games, including 24-7 in their last 31 games as road favorites. San Francisco is 5-0 in the last five meetings. Bet the Giants Saturday.
|09-25-21||Indiana v. Western Kentucky +9.5||33-31||Win||100||64 h 53 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Western Kentucky +9.5
Tyson Helton is in his third season at Western Kentucky and appears to have his best team yet. They did go 9-4 in his first season but this edition looks really good thus far. A big reason for that is Houston Baptist transfer Bailey Zappe as their senior quarterback.
Zappe led the Hilltoppers to a 59-21 win over Tennessee-Martin as 22-point favorites in the opener. And he nearly led them from behind in a 35-38 loss at Army as a 6-point dog. That is a very good Army team. Zappe is completing 74.7% of his passes for 859 yards with a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio in only two games.
That's because Western Kentucky had a bye last week. So that means the Hilltoppers have had two weeks to prepare to face Indiana, which is a huge advantage. It gives them a great shot to not only cover as 9.5-point dogs here, but to win this game outright.
Indiana came into the season grossly overvalued after a surprising 6-2 seasons last year. But keep in mind Indiana was actually outgained by 18 yards per game last year. And they have not come close to living up to expectations this year and remain overvalued this week.
Indiana lost its opener 34-6 at Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog. After beating Idaho 56-14, the Hoosiers came back and lost 24-38 at home as 4.5-point dogs to Cincinnati. Now after a 1-2 start, they will have a hard time getting back up off the mat to face Western Kentucky after blowing that game against Cincinnati.
Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. came into the season coming off his second ACL surgery. He looks like a shell of his former self. Penix Jr. is completing just 48.3% of his passes for 448 yards with a 4-to-6 TD/INT ratio through three games. He actually has -15 rushing yards on 10 attempts, so his rushing is no longer a factor. He is also battling a hand injury right now.
The Hoosiers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites. The Hilltoppers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs. Western Kentucky is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games following a bye week. Take Western Kentucky Saturday.
|09-25-21||Akron +49.5 v. Ohio State||7-59||Loss||-106||64 h 34 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Akron +49.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes continue to be overvalued this week as 49.5-point favorites against Akron. They are 2-1 SU but 0-2-1 ATS. They failed to cover in a 45-31 win at Minnesota as 14-point favorites. They lost outright to Oregon 28-35 as 15-point home favorites. And they failed to cover in a 41-20 win over Tulsa as 24.5-point favorites last week what was a 7-point game with less than four minutes left in the 4th quarter before the Buckeyes tacked on two late touchdowns.
Making matters worse for the Buckeyes is that starting QB C.J. Stroud got injured in that Tulsa game and is doubtful to play Saturday. Stroud had been impressive with 62.4% completions, 963 passing yards and eight touchdowns with three interceptions through three games. Whoever is under center for the Buckeyes will be making their first career start here.
Akron is in Year 3 under head coach Tom Arth and is clearly improved this season. Arth welcomed back 18 starters. After losing badly at Auburn in the opener, they lost 24-45 to Temple in a game that was closer than the final score. And last week they crushed Bryant 35-14 as 11.5-point favorites while racking up 514 total yards and holding Bryant to just 146, outgaining them by 368 yards.
Demarcus Irons replaced an injured Kato Nelson at quarterback and was fantastic against Bryant. He completed 19-of-23 passes for 296 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 136 yards and a score. I think Akron will be better off with Irons are QB moving forward if Nelson remains out.
Whoever is under center should be able to move the ball on a leaky Ohio State defense that clearly hasn't improved since last year. The Buckeyes are giving up 471 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season. That's bad when you consider Minnesota and Tulsa aren't known for having great offenses, and even both of them put up big numbers. Tulsa had 501 total yards on Ohio State last week.
Favorites of at least 49 points between two FBS teams are just 1-12 ATS since 1996, and 2-16 ATS since 1993. These big favorites just don't seem to cover because it's asking a lot of them to be motivated enough for four quarters to put the opposition away. And many times backups play the majority of the second half and they just try and get out of there with a win instead of running up the score. Roll with Akron Saturday.