20* Patriots/Jets AFC East No-Brainer on New York -6

The New York Jets needed some time to gel offensively with Aaron Rodgers.  They were a little out of sync in Week 1 and understandably so, losing 32-19 on the road to the San Francisco 49ers as 3.5-point dogs.  They have been undervalued since, and continue to be as only 6-point home favorites over the New England Patriots Thursday.

The Jets had a big second half offensively to pull away for a 24-17 win as 4-point road favorites at Tennessee.  Breece Hall scored on a 26-yard TD pass from Rodgers, and Rodgers made a great check at the line to spring Braelon Allen for the game-winning 20-yard TD run with under 5 minutes left in the 4th.

Now the Jets get to play in front of their home fans for the first time this season Thursday night.  It's safe to say it is going to be a madhouse as fans have waited two years to see Rodgers in person.  This will be one of the best home-field advantages of the entire season what the Patriots will have to go up against on the road Thursday night.

Everyone thought the Patriots would be the worst team in the NFL this season.  Instead, they upset the Bengals 16-10 in Week 1 and took Seattle to OT in a 23-20 home loss in Week 2.  Now the Patriots have to travel on a short week off that OT game, so they will be extra fatigued for this one.  They are overvalued after going 1-0-1 ATS thus far.  Teams off an OT game with 4 or less days' rest against team that's not also off an OT game are 3-23 ATS since 2002.

The Patriots are also dealing with a ton of injuries.  Four of their starting five offensive linemen are on the injury report.  They just lost MLB Ja'Whuan Bentley to a shoulder injury last week and that's a big blow, especially after losing Matthew Judon to the Falcons in the offseason.  The Jets did lose LB Jermaine Johnson last week, but CJ Mosley's injury was minor, and CB CJ Reed could return this week.

While both teams have pretty good defenses, there is a big discrepancy on offense.  The Patriots have arguably the worst offense in the NFL if it's not the Carolina Panthers, which is may not be now that Andy Dalton is starting.  The Patriots are a one-dimensional running team who are easy to stop.  They have no weapons outside, and QB Jacoby Brissett has only been looking at TE Hunter Hentry almost exclusively thus far.  He has 15 receptions and nobody else has more than 8 this season.

The Jets will get better every week offensively and will turn into a Top 10 offense in my opinion.  They are just too loaded everywhere not to be.  They had massive upgrades on their offensive line in the offseason, brought in WR Mike Williams to go along with Breece Hall, Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson, and of course arguably the biggest upgrade at QB in NFL history.  The Jets should be at least 7-point home favorites today given all the advantages they have.  We'll take advantage and lay the 6 points.  Bet the Jets Thursday.

15* South Alabama/App State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on OVER 64

Two great offenses square off against two of the worst defenses in the country Thursday night in what should be a shootout in the Sun Belt.  The forecast looks good for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's, zero wind and only a small chance of rain.

South Alabama ranks 11th in the country at 512.3 yards per game and 10th at 7.7 yards per play.  New head coach Major Applewhite was their offensive coordinator last season and has another elite offense, but the defense is really hurting with the loss of defensive-minded Kenny Wommack, who left to become the defensive coordinator at Alabama.

The Jaguars only have three starters back on defense and lose six of their top seven tacklers.  Their defense allowed 52 points and 550 total yards to North Texas, and 27 points and 404 total yards to Ohio.

Appalachian State has scored at least 33 points per game in at least seven consecutive seasons.  They have another great offense this season led by senior QB Joey Aguilar, who had a 33-to-10 TD/INT ratio last season.  The Mountaineers are averaging 456 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season despite facing two good defenses in Clemson and East Carolina.  This will be their easiest test yet.

Appalachian State ranks 128th in the country allowing 7.0 yards per play this season.  They allowed 66 points to Clemson.  We have two offensive-minded head coaches that aren't that concerned with playing defense here tonight.  Plus, Appalachian State has a couple defensive starters that have to sit out the 1H due to targeting penalties.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Diamondbacks/Brewers OVER 8

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 32-18 in their last 50 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 233 runs in their last 35 games for an average of 6.7 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season with a solid offense.  They should get to Brandon Pfaadt, who is 9-9 with a 4.81 ERA in 29 starts this season.  Pfaadt is going through his worst stretch of the year, allowing 25 earned runs in 22 innings in his last five starts.  He allowed 8 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings of a 15-8 loss to the Brewers in his last start, and they will tag him again today.

Tobias Myers was opposite Pfaadt in that 15-8 win on September 14th.  Myers allowed 4 earned runs and 9 hits in 6 innings in that start.  I think the fact that both lineups just recently saw these two starting pitchers gives them an advantage getting to face both less than a week later.

The OVER is 35-12-1 in Diamondbacks last 48 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 35 of them.  Arizona and its opponents have combined for 10 runs or more in seven of its last 10 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dodgers/Marlins OVER 8

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight in Game 3 of this series after combining for 20 runs in Game 1 and 12 runs in Game 2.  The Marlins are a dead nuts OVER team at home, and the Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game on the season.

Jack Flaherty allowed 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 3 innings to the Braves in his last start.  Edward Cabrera is 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Cabrera has allowed 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 7 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight.  The Dodgers have scored 8 runs or more in four consecutive games and are capable of covering this total on their own.  The Marlins have scored at least 9 runs in each of their last three of their last four home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Twins/Guardians UNDER 8.5

It was a tough break for UNDER bettors yesterday between the Twins and Guardians in a game that was tied 2-2 after 9 innings and finished 5-4 in extras.  I think that is providing us with some line value today on this UNDER 8.5 in a game between two dead nuts UNDER teams.

There will be light winds blowing in from center today in Cleveland with this 1:10 EST start time.  I like backing UNDERS in these early day games because players tend to be sleep walking through them, the sun light favors the pitchers, and many times hitters rest on getaway day.

Simeon Woods-Richardson has allowed just 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 12 1/3 innings in two starts against the Guardians this season.  Joey Cantillo has allowed just one earned run and 6 base runners in 12 innings with 16 K's in his last two starts for Cleveland.

The Twins and Guardians have combined for 9 or fewer runs in eight consecutive meetings, including 8 or fewer after 9 innings in seven of those.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Marlins OVER 8.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight in Game 2 of this series after combining for 20 runs in Game 1.  The Marlins are a dead nuts OVER team at home, and the Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.0 runs per game on the season.

Landon Knack recently returned to the rotation and has allowed 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 13 base runners in 8 innings in his two starts since returning.  Ryan Weathers will be making his first start since June 7th and will be on a pitch count for the Marlins, meaning the Dodgers will get into their awful bullpen early.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 9 or more combined runs in six of those seven.  The Dodgers have scored exactly 9 runs in three consecutive games and are capable of covering this total on their own.  The Marlins have scored at least 9 runs in each of their last three home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians -114

The Minnesota Twins are stumbling here down the stretch to let the Tigers and Mariners back in the wild card race.  They are dealing with some injuries and their offense hasn't been nearly as potent as it was for much of the season.  The Twins have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 15 of their last 19 games.

It won't get any easier for them today against Cleveland ace Tanner Bibee, who is 11-8 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 29 starts this season with 175 K's in 160 innings.  Bibee has owned the Twins this season, allowing 3 earned runs in 18 innings with 22 K's in three starts against them in 2024.

Bailey Ober allowed 5 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings to the Reds in his last start and 9 earned runs in 2 innings to the Braves four starts ago.  Ober allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his lone road start at Cleveland this season.

The Guardians are 9-3 in their last 12 meetings with the Twins and should be bigger favorites tonight.  Bet the Guardians Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on DBacks/Rockies OVER 10.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 31-18 in their last 49 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 224 runs in their last 34 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Colorado Rockies allow more runs than any team in baseball at 5.7 runs per game, and their numbers are better offensively but worse defensively at home.  The Rockies have scored a total of 28 runs in their last five games for an average of 5.6 runs per game.

Eduardo Rodriquez has allowed 14 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings in his last four starts for the Diamondbacks.  He has allowed 11 earned runs in 16 innings in his last three starts against Colorado.  

Austin Gomber is 5-10 with a 4.44 ERA in 28 starts for the Rockies this season with just 112 K's in 158 innings.  He will be facing the Diamondbacks for a 4th time this season, so they are very familiar with him and should get their bats going.  Gomber has allowed 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 24 base runners in 16 2/3 innings in those three previous starts.

The OVER is 34-12-1 in Diamondbacks last 47 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 34 of them.  Arizona and its opponents have combined for 16 or more runs in five of its last nine games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Astros/Padres MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 7.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 7.5 ticket tonight between the Astros and Padres, who are sending two of their best starters to the mound tonight.  These teams also have two of the best bullpens in baseball to shut it down for us late.

Hunter Brown is 11-8 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 28 starts this season with 168 K's in 158 innings.  Brown has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 14 of his last 17 starts.  He has lasted at least 6 innings in 17 of his last 20 starts.

Michael King is 12-9 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 28 starts this season with a whopping 191 K's in 161 2/3 innings.  King has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 11 consecutive starts, including 2 earned runs or fewer in 10 of those.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Angels OVER 8

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the White Sox and Angels tonight.  There will be light winds blowing out to center with temps in the 70's, which is bad news for these two gas can starting pitchers.

Griffin Canning is 5-13 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 28 starts for the Angels this season with just 117 K's in 156 1/3 innings and a whopping 28 homers allowed.  Canning allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings to the Twins in his last start.

Davis Martin is 0-4 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in eight starts for the White Sox this season.  Martin has allowed 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 14 innings in his last three starts.

The White Sox are heating up at the plate scoring 19 runs in their last three games.  The Angels have scored at least 3 runs in 10 consecutive games and 4 runs or more in eight of them.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings with 10 or more combined runs in six of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks/Rockies OVER 11

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 31-17 in their last 48 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 222 runs in their last 33 games for an average of 6.7 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Colorado Rockies allow more runs than any team in baseball at 5.7 runs per game, and their numbers are better offensively but worse defensively at home.  The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER ticket at hitter-friendly Coors Field.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center tonight.

It's amazing the Diamondbacks continue to send Jordan Montgomery out there to get crushed.  They paid him too much in the offseason and feel obligated.  Montgomery is 8-6 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 19 starts and four relieve appearances with just 73 K's in 108 innings.

Ryan Feltner is 2-10 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 27 starts for the Rockies this season.  Feltner has allowed 12 earned runs and 24 base runners in 12 innings in his last three starts against the Diamondbacks.

The OVER is 34-11-1 in Diamondbacks last 46 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 33 of them.  Arizona and its opponents have combined for 16 or more runs in five of its last eight games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Phillies -122

Getting Cy Young contender Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies as this short of a favorite against gas can Frankie Montas and the Milwaukee Brewers is a gift tonight.  We'll take advantage.

Wheeler is 15-6 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 29 starts this season with 199 K's in 179 2/3 innings.  Amazingly, Wheeler has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 13 of his last 14 starts.  That includes the one earned run in 7 innings he allowed in his lone start against the Brewers this season.

Montas is 7-10 with a 4.49 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 27 starts for the Brewers and Reds this season.  He has allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Philadelphia.  Bet the Phillies Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on A's/Cubs OVER 8

The Bucs beat the A's 9-2 yesterday to cover the total on their own.  They are more than capable of doing it again with how hot they are at the plate.  The Cubs have scored 5 runs or more in seven consecutive games with the OVER going 6-1 in those seven and 8 or more combined runs in all seven.

Mitch Spence is 7-9 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 21 starts and 11 relief appearances for the A's this season.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings with 11 or more combined runs in six of those seven.

The A's should get their bats going today against Jordan Wicks, who is 2-3 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in nine starts and one relief appearance for the Cubs this season.  Wicks has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 8 innings in his last two starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* MLB TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Diamondbacks/Rockies OVER 11

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 31-16 in their last 47 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 220 runs in their last 32 games for an average of 6.9 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Colorado Rockies allow more runs than any team in baseball at 5.7 runs per game, and their numbers are better offensively but worse defensively at home.  The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER ticket at hitter-friendly Coors Field.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center tonight.

Merrill Kelly is really struggling for the Diamondbacks.  He has allowed 19 earned runs and 7 homers in 27 1/3 innings in his last five starts for a 6.26 ERA.  I expect him to get shelled by the Rockies tonight.

Antonio Senzatela is 39-43 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in his career for the Rockies.  He will be making his first start of the season today, and I don't expect it to go well at all for him.  

The OVER is 34-10-1 in Diamondbacks last 45 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 33 of them.  Arizona and its opponents have combined for 16 or more runs in five of its last seven games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Falcons/Eagles ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +6

The Atlanta Falcons got a lot of hype coming into the season.  That led to them taking a lot of money in Week 1 as 4-point home favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They lost outright 18-10 despite holding the Steelers without a single touchdown.

The Steelers went on to beat the Broncos 13-6 on the road in Week 2 and clearly have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  It was a tough spot for Kirk Cousins in his return from an Achilles.  He looked a little hesitant which is to be expected with that much time off and thinking about the injury.

I expect Cousins and the Falcons to be much more comfortable in Week 2.  He is loaded with weapons on offense and playing behind one of the league's best O-Lines, plus the defense will be one of the most improved in the NFL with the additions of LB Judon and S Simmons just before the season.

The Eagles are actually in a bit of a tough spot returning home from Brazil following their 34-29 shootout win over the Green Bay Packers.  Their defense was their undoing last year, and it doesn't look much better this season already after allowing 29 points and 414 total yards to the Packers, including 163 rushing on 21 carries for an average of 7.8 yards per carry.  Bijan Robinson and the Falcons should have plenty of success on the ground in this one as well.

But one of the biggest reasons I'm on the Falcons is because the Eagles will be without their best offensive weapon in AJ Brown.  He was announced out on Sunday, and as soon as I saw the news I put in the Falcons +6.  Brown had 106 receptions for 1,456 yards and 7 TD last year, and he had 5 for 119 and a touchdown against the Packers in the opener.  

His loss is a huge blow because this Philadelphia offense was tough to tame with Brown, Smith and Barkley, but missing one of those three studs will make them much easier to defend.  This game will go down to the wire tonight, so catching 6 points is a very nice value.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Brewers OVER 8

This total of 8 is too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers.  The Phillies are scoring 4.9 runs per game and the Brewers are scoring 4.9 runs per game as two of the best offenses in the National League.

Aaron Civale has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 6-8 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 28 starts between the Rays and Brewers.

Rangers Suarez just returned from the IL and hasn't been the same starter since returning.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 30 base runners in 19 1/3 innings in his last four starts since returning.  He has also been on a pitch count.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Dodgers/Braves ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

This is a very low total for a game involving these two offenses and these two starting pitchers tonight.  The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.0 runs per game.  The Braves have gotten their bats going of late, scoring a total of 29 runs in their last four games.

The Braves should stay hot at the plate against gas can Walker Buehler, who is 1-5 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  His velocity is way down since surgery with just 49 K's in 59 innings and a whopping 15 homers allowed.  Buehler has allowed 7 earned runs, 2 homers and 17 base runners in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Braves.

The Dodgers should put up their best offensive effort of this series after a slow start to it.  They will tag Charlie Morton, who is 8-8 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  Morton has allowed 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 25 base runners in 15 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Broncos +3

I love the spot for the Denver Broncos and hate the spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  The Steelers will be playing their 2nd consecutive road game and will have to play in altitude in Denver, and I question how well they will handle it when it gets to the 4th quarter with poor conditioning this early in the season.

The Steelers are getting too much respect from the books off their upset win at Atlanta last week.  That was a rebuilding Falcons team with a new head coach, new coordinators and an aging QB in Kirk Cousins coming off an Achilles injury.

The Steelers managed to win that game 18-10 despite not scoring a single touchdown.  Fields did a good job of managing the game, and the Steelers relied on their defense, which is no doubt one of the best in the league.  But I think it was more about bad Falcons than good Steelers.  This is still one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

The Broncos were in a tough spot in Week 1 sending rookie Bo Nix into the 12th man to face the Seattle Seahawks.  Seattle has one of the best defenses in the NFL as well, so that will be good preparation for Nix this week.  He held it together well in a 26-20 loss, and he will be much more comfortable in front of his home fans this week.

The Broncos have a pretty good defense and one that will be able to contain Fields now that they have a week to prepare for him.  The Falcons didn't have that luxury last week as they prepared to face Russell Wilson.  Well, Wilson wasn't ruled out until Saturday, so the Falcons didn't have much time to prepare for the dual-threat in Fields.  They still managed to hold the Steelers without an offensive TD.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Brewers/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 30-16 in their last 46 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 209 runs in their last 31 games for an average of 6.7 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Brewers are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season and just hung 15 runs on the Diamondbacks yesterday.  They should stay hot against Zac Gallen, who hasn't been nearly as dominant this season with a 3.55 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 27 starts.

DL Hall is 1-1 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in six starts and two relief appearances for the Brewers this season.  He has been thrust into the rotation here and won't last long, meaning the Diamondbacks will get into this Milwaukee bullpen early.

The OVER is 33-10-1 in Diamondbacks last 44 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 32 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers/Mariners OVER 6.5

A total of 6.5 is so low in baseball.  We've seen a total of 7 or lower in five straight meetings between the Rangers and Mariners in Seattle, and the OVER is 4-1 with 9 or more combined runs in four of those five.  I think we easily get 7-plus combined runs again today.

George Kirby is going through his worst stretch of the season for the Mariners.  He has allowed 26 earned runs and 11 homers in 36 innings in his last seven starts for a 6.50 ERA.

Andrew Heaney is 5-13 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 28 starts for the Rangers this season.  Heaney has not enjoyed facing the Mariners, allowing 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 14 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in two starts against them in 2024.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cubs/Rockies OVER 11

The weather looks good for another slug fest at hitter-friendly Coors Field today.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to left.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Rockies and Cubs with 11 or more combined runs in all four.

It should be more of the same today with these two gas can starting pitchers.  Kyle Hendricks is 3-11 with a 6.51 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 21 starts and five relieve appearances this season with just 76 K's in 112 innings and 20 homers allowed.

Cal Quantrill is 8-9 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  He has been especially poor of late, allowing 29 earned runs and 8 homers in 37 2/3 innings in his last eight starts for a 6.93 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints +7

Nobody wants to give the New Orleans Saints credit for their 47-10 win over the Carolina Panthers last week.  Nobody was talking about the Saints as serious contenders to win the NFC South, which is the worst division in football.  This team is flying under the radar to start the season.

Everyone wants to crown the Dallas Cowboys after going on the road and beating the Cleveland Browns 33-17 last week.  But that game was closer than the final score as the Cowboys only managed 265 total yards and 4.4 yards per play on offense.  Deshaun Watson was terrible and gifted the Cowboys the win, plus the Browns were dealing with a ton of injuries on the offensive line.

The Saints outgained the Panthers 379 to 193 and 6.1 yards per play to 3.5 yards per play.  Many thought the Panthers would be improved this season under new head coach Dave Canales, and most were on the Panthers last week because of it.  So to just dismiss this performance as the Panthers being bad rather than the Saints being good I think isn't doing the Saints justice.

New Orleans is one of the healthiest teams in the NFL to start the season.  They have arguably a Top 5 defense, and Derek Carr was flawless in his first start under new coordinator Klint Kubiak.  Carr completed 19-of-23 passes for 200 yards and 3 TD, and the Saints rushed for 180 yards as a team.

The Cowboys were already lacking offensive weapons outside CeeDee Lamb, and now they are going to be without TE Jake Ferguson, who suffered a knee injury against the Browns last week.  Ferguson is a security blanket for Dak Prescott and his loss is bigger than most recognize.  The Saints will be able to key in on Lamb even more now to try and take him away.

This line should be much closer to 3 than 7, so there's serious value on New Orleans this week.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Jacksonville Jaguars -3

Travis Etienne was going in for a TD that would have made it 24-7 Jaguars in the 3rd quarter against the Dolphins in Week 1 and put the game away.  Instead, he fumbled into the end zone, and the Dolphins scored on a 80-yard bomb on the next play that totally changed the game.  The Dolphins went on to win 20-17.

No question the Jaguars will be pissed off in practice all week and will be looking to take out their frustration on the Browns this week.  The Browns looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL in Week 1 in their 33-17 home loss to the Cowboys.  Deshaun Watson looks broken, the offensive line is banged up, they lost TE David Njoku to injury during the game, and they have other key injuries on defense.

Watson had one of the worst games by an NFL quarterback in years.  He went 26-of-45 passing for 169 yards with one TD and 2 INT.  He averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt and was sacked 6 times.  He is dealing with a ton of distractions right now with two tragedies plus another sexual assault allegation.  I think the team as a whole is just fed up with him right now to boot.

The Jaguars were on their way to winning the AFC South last season before Trevor Lawrence got hurt.  They made some great moves this offseason to upgrade their offensive line, the skill positions and the defensive line.  They were putting Tua under pressure all game, and they are a much better offensive team than they showed against the Dolphins.  I think Lawrence and company will score at will on a Cleveland defense that allowed more points per game on the road last season than any other team in the NFL.  I don't think Watson can keep up, especially since he'll be playing behind a banged up O-Line and without Njoku.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 49ers/Vikings UNDER 45.5

Sam Darnold came over to the Minnesota Vikings from the San Francisco Giants.  He has the insight on how to stop Kyle Shanahan's offense to give to Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores.  Conversely, the 49ers have the insight on Darnold's strengths and weaknesses and will come up with the proper game plan to stop him.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and that familiarity for both teams will favor the UNDER.  Plus, the 49ers and Vikings squared off last season in October with the Vikings prevailing 22-17 for just 39 combined points with Kirk Cousins at quarterback.  It will be another defensive struggle in the rematch.

The Giants made Darnold look like Joe Montana last week.  They have an awful defense.  This is a big step up in class for this Minnesota offense taking on a San Francisco defense that is one of the best in the NFL.  The 49ers held the Jets to 19 points only after the Jets scored a meaningless TD in garbage time with 25 seconds left last week.  They also held the Jets to 266 total yards, with a large chunk of that coming in garbage time.

Making matters worse for Darnold is the fact that he will be without WR Jordan Addison, who came on strong last year in the absence of Justin Jefferson.  Addison re-injured his ankle that was giving him problems in training came against the Giants and has been ruled out.  The Vikings were already without stud TE TJ Hockenson.  Now the 49ers can focus in on stopping Jefferson because the Vikings just don't have many other weapons that can beat them.

Speaking of injuries, the 49ers will be without Christian McCaffrey again this week.  Jordan Mason played well in his place against the Jets, but no question McCaffrey adds a different dimension to this offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.  Flores is one of the best defensive coordinators in the game, and I suspect he will come up with the right game plan to hold the 49ers in check.  He did last year limiting them to 17 points.  

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 40 or fewer combined points in five of those six.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seattle Seahawks -3

The New England Patriots were the consensus worst team in the NFL coming into the season.  But after upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals on the road last week, the Patriots are now getting some respect.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Patriots this week.

The Bengals are notorious for disappointing performances in Week 1.  It's because they don't take the preseason seriously and they are never ready.  They were without WR Tee Higgins, and WR Ja'Marr Chase is disgruntled without a new contract.  Joe Burrow is visibly injured as his wrist just isn't right.  And their defense is down a couple notches from a few years ago, especially since they lost run-stuffer DJ Reader, which allowed the Patriots to move the ball on the ground against them.  I think that 16-10 upset was way more bad Bengals than good Patriots.

The Patriots have the worst offense in the NFL.  They have the worst set of skill positions players, a shaky offensive line, and one of the worst QB situations since they are going with career backup Jacoby Brissett.  Brissett went 15-of-24 for 121 yards against the Bengals.  They rode Rhamondre Stevenson and his 120 rushing yards on 25 carrries.

The Seahawks brought in former Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike McDonald as their head coach.  He is one of the best defensive minds in the game, and the Seahawks are loaded on defense this season.  They aren't going to let Stevenson run wild on them like the Bengals did.  They are going to make Brissett try and beat them, and I don't think he can.

The Seahawks are loaded at the skill positions, and Geno Smith is more than just a game manager.  They will put up enough points to get us the cover as their defense comes close to pitching a shutout in this one.  The Seahawks held the Broncos to just 231 total yards and 3.3 yards per play last week.  This has the makings of a Top 5 defense.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Commanders OVER 43.5

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off in Week 2 when the New York Giants visit the Washington Commanders.  I expect both offenses to get going this week after sub par performances in Week 1.  We are getting great value on the OVER 43.5 as a result, which is just below two very key numbers for NFL totals in 44 and 45.

The Giants made Sam Darnold look like Joe Montana last week. They scored 28 points in 3 quarters before calling off the dogs in a blowout.  Darnold went 19-of-24 passing for 208 yards and 2 TD against the Giants, who allowed 6.1 yards per play to the Vikings for the game.

The Commanders probably have the worst defense in the NFL.  They made Baker Mayfield look like Patrick Mahomes last week.  Mayfield completed 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards and 4 TD, while the Bucs also rushed for 112 yards in their 37-20 win over the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels and this Washington offense are going to improve rapidly under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.  Daniels is too good, and he is loaded with weapons this season.  Expect the breakout game to come for him here in Week 2.

Daniel Jones is undoubtedly one of the worst QB's in the NFL.  But he is better than he showed against the Vikings, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL under Brian Flores.  Jones got good news when it was announced Malik Nabers would be playing this week after an injury scare, and the rookie WR is in line for a big game against this awful Washington secondary.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Jets/Titans OVER 40.5

Aaron Rodgers looked pretty good all things considered in his first action since basically a year ago when he tore his Achilles in Week 1 last year.  He is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the game, and he has some serious weapons in Wilson, Lazard, Williams and Hall.  This is a very low total for a game involving this kind of offense.

The Titans have one of the more underrated offenses in the NFL.  They have a good offensive line, and second-year QB Will Levis makes a lot of big plays but also a lot of mistakes, which is good for OVERS.  Levis has ample weapons with the additions of WR Calvin Ridley, WR Tahj Boyd and RB Tony Pollard.  Plus, DeAndre Hopkins should be much closer to full strength this week after he and Levis formed a great chemistry last year.

The Jets were gashed by the 49ers defensively with outside zone runs.  That is their weakness on defense, and I think the Titans can exploit it with Pollard and Tajae Spears.  Brian Callahan is one of the best O-Line coaches in the history of the NFL and will have this scheme ready to go after rushing for 140 yards on the Bears last week.

The Titans do have an improved defense this season, but a lot of their success last week had more to do with bad Bears than good Titans.  Rookie Caleb Williams was making his first start, and WR's Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen both got banged up.  I don't think the Titans will have close to as much success defensively against Rodgers and company this week.

This total is just below a very key number of 41 and we are getting great value on the OVER after both offenses were a bit sluggish against elite defenses last week.  Both offenses take a step down in class this week and should have more success.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Brewers/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 30-15 in their last 45 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 201 runs in their last 30 games for an average of 6.7 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

Tobias Myers is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball here down the stretch.  The rookie has pitched 120 innings this season and I question how well he will handle this workload moving forward.  This will be his toughest test of the season against Arizona.

The Brewers are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season and should get their bats going against Brandon Pfaadt, who is 9-8 with a 4.42 ERA in 28 starts for the Diamondbacks this season.  Pfaadt has really struggled of late, allowing 21 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings in his last five starts coming in.

The OVER is 32-10-1 in Diamondbacks last 43 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 31 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2.5

The Indiana Hoosiers are loaded this season under 1st-year head coach Curt Cignetti.  He led James Madison to a 19-4 record the last two years and he is going to turn around this Indiana program in a hurry.

Cignetti has 21 returning starters when you count all the transfers he brought in with him from James Madison and other schools.  The Hoosiers are off to a fast start beating Florida International 31-7 at home and Western Illinois 77-3 at home as a 45-point favorite.  That's a FIU team that went on to beat Central Michigan 52-16 last week.

QB Kurtis Roarke comes over from Ohio and has been impressive, completing 73.2% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  The backfield is loaded with three RB's that have already topped 100 rushing yards.  The receiving room is loaded with JMU transfer Elijah Sarratt, Texas Tech transfer Myles Price and returnee Omar Cooper Jr., who have combined for 23 receptions for 392 yards and 2 TD.  The defense returns 11 starters and hasn't given up an inch.

So it's a team I'm very high on in Indiana up against a team I am very down on in UCLA, which will turn out to be on the worst Power 4 teams in the country this season.  Head coach Chip Kelly bolted for Ohio State, and a lot of their best players transferred out.  Plus they lost defensive coordinator Lynn to USC.

Former UCLA RB Deshaun Foster doesn't have any previous head coaching experience and steps into a very tough situation.  The Bruins only have 12 starters back and a ton of new faces.  They were far from impressive in their 16-13 win at Hawaii as 13.5-point favorites in their opener.  That's a Hawaii team that was in a 7-point game in the 4th quarter as 40.5-point home favorites against Delaware State the week prior.  They stand little chance of keeping this game competitive against the upstart Hoosiers.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Colorado/Colorado State CBS No-Brainer on Colorado State +7.5

Colorado State gets to host Colorado on campus for the first time since 1996.  This is a massive deal for them, and adding to their motivation is that the Rams want revenge from a brutal 43-35 (2 OT) loss to Colorado last season after blowing an 11-point lead in the final 7 minutes of regulation.

Colorado State outgained Colorado 499 to 418 in that meeting last year.  QB Fowler-Nicolosi completed 34-of-47 passes for 367 yards and 3 TD and 3 INT in the loss, and he is back this season to redeem himself.  1st-Team All-MWC WR Tory Horton had 16 receptions for 133 yards and a score in the defeat, and he is back for revenge as well.

Jay Norvell has 14 starters in all back this season in Year 3, which is where coaches usually make their biggest leaps with their new programs.  The 52-0 loss to Texas in the opener was a setback, but Texas may be the best team in the country after beating Michigan 31-12 on the road last week.

The Rams bounced back with a 38-17 win over Northern Colorado last week.  They got their ground game going with 224 rushing yards and that will be an emphasis this week after watching Colorado get shredded on the ground thus far.

Colorado has two elite players in QB Shedeur Sanders and WR/CB Travis Hunter, but not much else.  Defense is a problem after allowing 34.8 points per game and 453 yards per game last season.  That defense wasn't much better in a 31-26 win over North Dakota State as 11.5-point favorites in the opener.  The Buffaloes allowed 449 total yards to the Bison, who aren't as strong as they normally are in the FCS after losing their head coach to USC and a All-American safety to injury.

Colorado then went on to fall behind 28-0 at halftime to Nebraska last week before the Huskers called off the dogs in the second half.  The Buffaloes managed just 16 rushing yards on 24 carries, and Sanders was sacked 6 times and under duress the entire game behind a shotty Colorado offensive line.  The Buffaloes are terrible up front on offense and on defense, and that is going to be their undoing again this week as well.  

Sanders threw his O-Line under the bus and I question how badly they want to have his back this week.  This team has no business being more than a TD road favorite against a Colorado State team that is going to play the little brother roll and want it more.  This is a game I fully expect the Rams to win outright.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Colorado/Colorado State UNDER 59

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Colorado and Colorado State will be meeting for a 2nd consecutive season after Colorado's thrilling 43-35 (2 OT) win last year.  This was a 21-14 game in the 4th quarter with just 35 combined points.  It was tied at 28-28 at the end of regulation for 56 combined points.  I think the UNDER 59 has some value here in the rematch after going for just 56 at the end of regulation last year.

Colorado State is going to go with a run-heavy approach to try and take advantage of the interior of this Colorado defense.  Their strength is in their secondary.  The Rams are going to try and play a ball control game, which they practiced last week rushing for 224 yards in a 38-17 win over Northern Colorado after getting shut out 52-0 by Texas in the opener.

Colorado is a one-dimensional passing team with a terrible offensive line and zero threat of a rushing attack.  That makes them much easier to stop, and it keeps Shedeur Sanders under pressure all game.  That was the case last week as the Buffaloes rushed for just 16 yards on 22 carries against Nebraska, and Sanders was sacked 6 times in a 28-10 defeat.  Even in a shootout against North Dakota State in their opener it only saw 57 combined points in a 31-26 win by the Buffaloes.  Colorado rushed for 59 yards on 23 carries.

Colorado State has played in 8 consecutive games that saw 55 or fewer combined points dating back to last season, making for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 59-point total.  They have an underrated defense, and their offense is nowhere near the levels many expected it would be under Jay Norvell.  Five of Colorado's last seven games have seen 57 or fewer combined points as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Georgia/Kentucky ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5

There is a decent chance of rain Saturday at Kentucky but we're not going to need it to cash this UNDER 45.5 ticket.  These are two of the slowest offenses in the country as Kentucky ranks 129th in seconds per play while Georgia ranks 125th.  Both teams like to slow it to a crawl and rely on defense.

Georgia has allowed a total of 6 points through two games against Clemson and Tennessee Tech.  They allowed 3 points to a Clemson team that just hung 66 on Appalachian State last week.  This Georgia defense may be the best in the country again.

Kentucky hangs its hat on defense every year because they always have a suspect offense.  That is the case again this season.  Kentucky beat Southern Miss 31-0 in the opener.  They managed just 317 total yards and held USM to 131 total yards.  Last week, Kentucky lost 31-6 at home to South Carolina.  The Wildcats managed just 183 total yards of offense while holding the Gamecocks to 252 total yards, but they had a defensive touchdown otherwise it would have been a 24-6 final.

Kentucky starting QB Vandagriff got hurt against South Carolina and may not go this week.  That would leave the QB duties to Wimsatt, the Rutgers transfer who started for them last year but was more of a runner than a passer.  The Wildcats may have to go 'wildcat' with Wimsatt, no pun intended.  There's a very good chance Georgia shuts them out, and I would be surprised if they topped 7 points in this one.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 17, 21, 22 and 43 combined points in the four games that went under the total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on UTSA +36

It's a great time to 'buy low' on UTSA and 'sell high' on Texas.  UTSA is 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS while Texas is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  The Longhorns are coming off a huge 31-12 win at Michigan to prove they are playoff contenders once again.  That makes this a letdown spot for them as they return home to face UTSA.

The Roadrunners are coming off a 49-10 loss at Texas State on the road.  While concerning, I believe Texas State is a serious contender to represent the Group of 5 in the college football playoff.  It wasn't as big of a blowout as the final score as the Roadrunners were outgained by 186 yards.

UTSA was the favorite to win the AAC coming into the season with 14 starters back from a team that went 9-4 last season.  There were some big losses at QB and WR, but the Miners are much better than they have shown thus far.  Plus, Jeff Traylor is one of the best head coaches in the country and won't let his team pack it in.  Of course, it won't be hard to get up to face Texas this week, and they may have been looking ahead to this game.

This line would have been less than 4 touchdowns if it had been played in Week 1.  Instead, we are getting about 10 points of value here on UTSA +36 due to what we have seen thus far from both of these teams.  I know we'll get a big effort from the Roadrunners, and if Texas brings anything less than its 'A-game', it will not cover this inflated number.  Bet UTSA Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Tigers UNDER 8

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 8 ticket between the Orioles and Tigers at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park in Detroit.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from left, so don't expect many if any homers in this game today.

The Orioles are ice cold at the plate scoring 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games while averaging just 1.9 runs per game during this stretch.  The Tigers have one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Corbin Burnes is one of the best starters in baseball at 13-8 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 29 starts for the Orioles this season.  Burnes has allowed just 3 earned runs in 16 innings in his last three starts coming in.

The Tigers have yet to announce a starter, but even if they make this a bullpen game they have one of the best in baseball.  They haven't been allowing anything of late, including a 1-0 victory over the Orioles yesterday.  It will be more of the same today with heavy winds blowing in from left.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +2.5

East Carolina head coach Mike Houston has been here before.  Not much is expected of the Pirates this season off a 2-10 campaign last year where just 10 starters returned from a team that finished 8-5 and was one of the program's best.

Now Houston is hungry to get back to that level and has 14 starters returning and a great recruiting class coming in.  The Pirates have been mighty impressive in their 2-0 start this season, and this is one of the better home-field advantages in the country in Greenville when this team is good.

It started with a 42-3 win as 31-point favorites over Norfolk State in Week 1.  Then last week the Pirates went on the road and upset Old Dominion 20-14 as 1.5-point dogs.  That's the same Old Dominion team that nearly upset South Carolina on the road in a 23-19 defeat that saw the Gamecocks score both of their touchdowns off ODU turnovers inside their own 10-yard line.  South Carolina went on to beat Kentucky 31-6 on the road last week, making that win over ODU look even more impressive.

It was also a bigger blowout than the 20-14 final would indicate.  ECU outgained ODU 466 to 287, or 179 total yards.  They overcame 4 INT from Jake Garcia.  He will be much more comfortable at home, where he threw for 308 yards and 4 TD against Norfolk State in the opener.

Appalachian State was among the favorites to win the Sun Belt this season, but I'm not buying it with what I've seen them them thus far.  They failed to cover in a 38-10 win over East Tennessee State as 32.5-point favorites in their opener.  And last week they were blasted 66-20 by Clemson as 17-point dogs, which is the same Clemson offense that managed just 3 points against Georgia.

It's safe to say this Appalachian State defense will be the worst unit on the field Saturday.  You could see it coming at the end of last season as the Mountaineers allowed 49 points to Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game.  Clemson had 56 points by halftime!  They racked up 712 total yards on this soft Appalachian State defense.  Garcia and company can name their number in this one.  Wrong team favored.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on App State/ECU OVER 60

East Carolina has switched its offense into an up-tempo, air raid this season.  The Pirates rank 9th in seconds per play and now face a Appalachian State team that also likes to play up-tempo, ranking 30th in seconds per play.  This has the makings of a shootout today folks.

It's safe to say this Appalachian State defense will be the worst unit on the field Saturday.  You could see it coming at the end of last season as the Mountaineers allowed 49 points to Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game.  Clemson had 56 points by halftime in their 66-20 win last week that saw 86 combined points.  The Tigers racked up 712 total yards on this soft Appalachian State defense.

East Carolina QB Jeff Garcia is making plays but he is also making a lot of mistakes, which could lead to easy points for the Mountaineers.  Garcia is completing 65% of his passes with a 4-to-7 TD/INT ratio with 591 yard and 8.0 per attempt.  No question this ECU offense is explosive and can pretty much name their number on this Appalachian State defense.

The strength of the Mountaineers is their offense and it may be the best unit on the field Saturday.  Senior QB Joey Aguilar returns after completing 63.8% of his passes for 3,757 yards with a 33-to-10 TD/INT ratio last season.  He has each of his top four receivers back as well, so there is some chemistry here.  The Mountaineers have averaged at least 33 points per game in at least seven consecutive seasons.

These teams played in a shootout last season as Appalachian State won 43-28 for 71 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch, especially with the Pirates going to the new up-tempo offense this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +11

The Purdue Boilermakers are going to prove to be one of the most underrated teams in the Big Ten this season and I'm very high on them to surprise.  Former Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters is doing big things here after leading one of the best defenses in the country under Bret Bielema.

After having just 10 starters back in a 4-8 campaign in his first season last year, Walters now has 14 starters back in Year 2.  He has recruited some tremendous talent here while hitting the transfer portal hard.

It looks like he has found a gem in former Texas QB Hudson Card, who went 24-of-25 passing for 273 yards and 4 TD in a season-opening 49-0 win over Indiana State as a 35-point favorite.  The Boilermakers had last week off, so they have had two full weeks to get ready for Notre Dame, which puts them at a big rest and preparation advantage.

Notre Dame came into the season getting a lot of hype, but that hype was mainly due to their defense and having one of the softest schedules in the country.  They lived up to the hype with a 23-13 upset win at Texas A&M, but that win was aided by some injuries early in the game to the Aggies' offensive line.

The Fighting Irish came back with the upset of the year and lost outright 16-14 to MAC foe Northern Illinois as a 28-point favorite last week.  That defeat all but eliminates them from playoff contention, and I question how they will get back up off the mat.

I know for certain the Fighting Irish should not be laying 11 points on the road to this upstart Purdue team with the offense they are putting on the field.  The Fighting Irish are starting 5 underclassmen along the offensive line, and it's a big problem breaking in 5 new starters.  Plus one of their starters is already hurt.

Former Duke QB Riley Leonard has only rushed for 79 yards on 23 carries for an average of 3.4 per carry through two games.  He has only thrown for 321 yards with a 0-to-2 TD/INT ratio thus far as well.  He has a banged up left shoulder, and he is an inaccurate passer.  This offense has taken a big step back from where they were a year ago.  

Notre Dame has gone to the wire in two consecutive games and may not have much left in the tank for the Boilermakers, who couldn't be more fresh and prepared for this one.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Boston College +17

Boston College is loaded with 17 returning starters as new head coach Bill O'Brien steps into a great situation.  O'Brien was born in Boston and meant to be a college head coach.  The key is returning QB Thomas Castellanos, who threw for 2,248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year while also rushing for 1,113 yards and 13 scores.

Boston College nearly upset Florida State in a 31-29 loss as 25-point underdogs last season.  The Eagles outgained the Seminoles 457 to 351, or by 106 total yards and should have won outright.  Castellanos went off for 305 passing yards and 95 rushing yards in the loss.

Castellanos and company got their revenge in a 28-13 road win at Florida State as 16.5-point underdogs.  There was nothing fluky at all about this win as they dominated the point of attack on both offensive and defensive lines.  More impressive yet was the Eagles avoiding the letdown just five days later, beating Duquesne 56-0 as 35.5-point favorites.

Now the Eagles will be ready to prove themselves against a SEC opponent in Missouri.  I think the Tigers are grossly overvalued after blowout wins and covers over a pair of cupcakes in Murray State 51-0 as 50.5-point favorites and Buffalo 38-0 as 32-point favorites.  Their luck runs out in the covering department this week as they take a big step up in class against Boston College.  The Tigers have their SEC opener on deck next week and could be looking ahead as well.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games dating back to last season.  They are starting to get too much respect from the books.  Boston College is the team flying under the radar right now and will be looking to put their name on the map this week.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +20.5

Oklahoma State is coming off the most misleading win of Week 2 after having another misleading win in Week 1.  These two results have the Cowboys way overvalued, and they are laying way too many points on the road against Tulsa this week as a result.

Oklahoma State is getting a lot of hype heading into the season after finishing 10-4 last season and making it to the Big 12 title game.  But it was all smoke and mirrors for the most part as the Cowboys were actually outgained on the season with a defense that gave up 442 yards per game.  They were outgained by 17 yards per game in Big 12 play alone.

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys with the lofty preseason expectations that come with returning 19 starters from that team.  That's especially the case after a misleading 44-20 win over South Dakota State as a 13-point favorite in the opener, which is a SDSU team ranked No. 1 in the FCS.  

The Cowboys only outgained the Jackrabbits 394 to 388, or by 6 total yards.  The Jackrabbits actually outgained them 6.0 to 5.5 yards per play as well.  They held the Cowboys to 3.8 yards per carry on the ground and held 1st-team All-American RB Ollie Gordon to 126 yards on 28 carries.  This game was much closer than the 44-20 final.

Then last week, Oklahoma State beat Arkansas 39-31 (OT) at home despite getting outgained 648 to 385 by the Razorbacks, or by 263 total yards.  No question Arkansas deserved to win that game but was -2 in turnovers and missed a couple field goals.

After using a lot of energy in that OT win, this is now a flat spot for the Cowboys going on the road to face Tulsa.  It is also a sandwich spot with their huge Big 12 opener on deck against Utah next week, which could decide which of those two teams wins the conference.  The Cowboys just want to get out of here with a win and they aren't concerned about margin at all.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Tulsa as they were Arkansas, or as they will be against Utah.

It was a rebuilding season in Year 1 last season for head coach Kevin Wilson.  He only had 9 starters back and Tulsa went just 4-8.  But now he has a lot of his players in place and has recruited some very good talent here.  I like what I've seen from the Golden Hurricane thus far in Year 2.

It started with a 62-28 win over Northwestern State in the opener.  And last week the Golden Hurricane gave Arkansas State all they wanted in a 28-24 road loss as 9-point dogs.  That's a very good Arkansas State team under Butch Jones and I think they contend for a Sun Belt title, so that wasn't a bad loss at all.

Redshirt freshman QB Kirk Francis has been impressive, comlpeting 67.2% of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.  Avant, Jackson and Watkins have combined for over 300 rushing yards as this is a nice three-headed monster in the backfield.  Kamdyn Benjamin was their leading receiver last year and has 11 receptions for 196 yards and two TD thus far through two games.  

They will have success against a Oklahoma State defense that is allowing 518 yards per game through two games, including 4.7 yards per carry and 8.2 yards per attempt through the air.  They will never be out of this game and the back door will be open if we need it, but I don't think we will.  The Golden Hurricane get to play the 'little brother' role here and will simply want it more.  Bet Tulsa Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on LSU/South Carolina UNDER 50.5

The forecast could help us cash this UNDER 50.5 ticket between LSU and South Carolina on Saturday.  There is a 60% chance of rain and 10 MPH winds in the forecast.  I don't think it will matter given both teams have defenses that are ahead of their offenses thus far.

South Carolina looks like a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Gamecocks managed just 288 total yards in their 23-19 win over Old Dominion in the opener.  They had two drives start inside the Old Dominion 10-yard line due to turnovers too to get their only two touchdowns.

Last week, South Carolina beat Kentucky 31-6 in an absolute slug fest.  The Gamecocks only managed 252 total yards and held the Wildcats to 183 total yards.  They are now allowing just 244 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play through two games.

LSU managed to hold USC to 27 points in the opener on a fast turf.  That's the same USC team that hung 48 points on Utah State last week.  The Tigers lost their Heisman Trophy winner at QB in Jaden Daniels along with all of their top playmakers.   They also lost their offensive coordinator, and now they are a much more defensive-minded team in 2024.

South Carolina ranks 79th in seconds per play going 27.8 seconds in between snaps thus far.  QB LaNorris Sellers is one of the worst Power 4 QB's in the country.  But 8 starters are back on defense including six of their top seven tacklers for defensive-minded Shane Beamer.  But the big change is LSU, which ranks 116th in seconds per play at 30.9 seconds in between snaps.  They have changed from an up-tempo team last season to a ball control team this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Brewers/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 30-14 in their last 44 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 200 runs in their last 29 games for an average of 6.9 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

This total of 8.5 is too low for a game involving the Diamondbacks and Brewers, who are scoring 4.8 runs per game.  I'm not a big fan of either starting pitcher tonight either.  Freddy Peralta is 10-8 with a 3.81 ERA this season, while Eduardo Rodriquez is 2-2 with a 5.83 ERA this season.

The OVER is 32-9-1 in Diamondbacks last 42 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 31 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night Line Mistake on Arizona Diamondbacks -104

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 30-14 in their last 44 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 200 runs in their last 29 games for an average of 6.9 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Diamondbacks still have a lot to play for trying to clinch a wild card spot.  The Brewers don't have much to play for as they basically already have the NL Central locked up with a 9-game lead with only 16 games remaining.  Motivation is on Arizona's side.

The Diamondbacks also have the rest advantage after having yesterday off, while the Brewers just completed a 3-game series in San Francisco.  The Brewers have scored 3 runs or fewer in six of their last seven games overall and have gone cold here down the stretch.  Eduardo Rodriquez will be better than Freddy Peralta today.  Bet the Diamondbacks Friday.

20* UNLV/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on UNLV +7.5

UNLV went 9-5 and made the Mountain West Championship Game in Barry Odom's first season on the job last year.  Odom has put this team on the map and players want to come play for him.  He has 11 returning starters plus a tremendous recruiting class this season, and the Rebels are MWC contenders once again.

That was evident with their 27-7 upset win at Houston in the opener as 3.5-point dogs.  That's the same Houston team that went on to nearly upset Oklahoma on the road last week in a 16-12 loss as 27.5-point dogs, making that win over the Cougars all the more impressive.

UNLV easily could have had a letdown against Utah Tech last week off the Houston win and with Kansas on deck, but they showed great maturity in dismantling Utah Tech 72-14 as 41.5-point favorites.  Now they want revenge on Kansas after losing 49-36 to the Jayhawks in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl last year, adding fuel to the fire.

UNLV QB Matthew Sluka is a dual-threat that looks for contact from defenders, and his team follows his lead.  Sluka has a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio passing through two games, while also leading the team in rushing with 129 yards and a score while averaging 6.4 per attempt.  The Rebels are averaging 7.0 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense and are vastly improved on D.

Kansas came into the season ranked and they probably didn't deserve to be.  They went 9-4 last season and expectations were high, so it's a good time to 'sell high' on them early in the season.  Kansas failed to cover as a 49.5-point favorite in their opener against Lindenwood as they only scored 48 points.  Then they promptly lost 23-17 as 5-point road favorites at Illinois against a Fighting Illini team that was expected to be down this year.

QB Jalon Daniels has been solid when he has been healthy, but he has been through so many injuries you know it's in his head.  Jason Bean played well in his place last year and moved on to the NFL, and I'm not sure Daniels is better than Bean was.  Daniels is completing just 57.4% of his passes with a 3-to-4 TD/INT ratio while only rushing for 35 yards on 10 carries thus far despite facing a weak schedule.  

A sneaky loss for Kansas this offseason was offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State.  Daniels and company look a bit lost without him thus far.  I think this improved UNLV defense can hold them in check as well and possibly pull off the outright upset Friday night.  Kansas should be the fresher team after the blowout win over Utah Tech, while Kansas was in a war with physical Illinois.  UNLV is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  Bet UNLV Friday.

15* Brewers/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

Heavy winds were blowing out last night which is why a game that involved two great starting pitchers in Blake Snell and Colin Rea saw 15 combined runs with a 7-run total.  Now the wind will be blowing out again tonight at 10 MPH and we have two much worse starting pitchers going, so both offenses should have their way.

Frankie Montas is the biggest weak link in Milwaukee's rotation.  He is 6-10 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  He allowed 5 runs, 4 earned, and 8 base runners in 4 2/3 innings of a 6-5 loss to the Giants in his lone start against them in 2024.

Rookie Hayden Birdsong is in over his head thus far in the majors.  Birdsong is 3-5 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 12 starts this season while allowing 10 homers and 35 walks in 52 innings.  Birdsong allowed 5 earned runs and 8 base runners in 3 2/3 innings to the Brewers in one of those 12 starts on August 29th.  Both offenses will feast in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Bills/Dolphins AFC East No-Brainer on Buffalo +2.5

Note: I am also playing a 6-Point Teaser with the Bills +8.5/Broncos +9

The Buffalo Bills are coming off a misleading 34-28 win over the Arizona Cardinals.  Neither team deserved to score that many points, especially Arizona, which was held to just 270 total yards and 4.5 yards per play.  But the Cardinals scored on a 96-yard kickoff return TD in the 4th quarter and were set up with short fields on a few other kickoffs.

The Bills did pretty much whatever they wanted to offensively averaging 6.1 yards per play.  And they will do pretty much whatever they want to offensively against a Miami defense that lost five of their top six sackers from last season.  And this is a Miami defense that just cannot figure out Josh Allen and the Bills.

Indeed, the Bills are 11-1 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Dolphins with their lone loss coming by 2 points.  So they would be 12-0 ATS with a line of +2.5, which is what we are getting the Bills at in this game.  There's nothing fluky about this run as Buffalo has outgained Miami in 10 consecutive meetings.  Wrong team favored here.

Miami was fortunate to win 20-17 at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.  The Dolphins trailed 17-7 and Jacksonville was going in for a TD that would have put the game out of reach at 24-7 in the 3rd quarter.  But Travis Etienne fumbled going into the end zone, and the Dolphins scored on a Tyreek Hill bomb on the very next play.  The game changed with that one play in what was otherwise a dominant effort by the Jaguars.

Miami has a ton of injuries and one of the worst offensive lines in the league.  The Bills are better up front on both sides of the ball and will dominate the line is scrimmage, which has been the key to their dominance over the last 12 meetings.  RB Mostert is out and RB Achane will be a game-time decision, so they are thin in the backfield.  There are also concerning injuries on their defensive line and in their secondary.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

15* ASU/Texas State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Texas State +2

G.J. Kinne massively exceeded expectations in his first season at Texas State after coming off from Incarnate Word where he led them to a 12-2 season in 2022 with a record-setting offense.  Kinne led the Bobcats to an 8-5 season in his first year on the job including an upset road win over Baylor as a 27-point dog.

Now Texas State returns 18 starters this season and is a legitimate playoff contender to be the Group of 5 representative.  Nine starters are back from an offense that put up 36.7 points per game and 459 yards per game.  Texas State allowed 398 yards per game on defense last year and has nine starters back after having just four starters back last season and will be improved on D.

Everyone sees that they only beat Lamar 34-27 as a 33.5-point favorite in Week 1.  But a deeper dive into the box score shows that this was a much bigger blowout.  They led 18-0 at halftime and took their foot off the gas, likely looking ahead to their huge showdown with UTSA.  They still outgained Lamar 486 to 288, or by nearly 200 yards.

We got the more true version of Texas State last week in their 49-10 beat down of UTSA as a 2.5-point home favorite.  They outgained the Miners 504 to 318, or by 186 total yards.  Granted, this wasn't as big of a blowout as the final score, but it was still another dominant effort in the box score.

1st-team All-Sun Belt QB Jordan McCloud has transferred in from James Madison.  He is completing 68.4% of his passes for 547 yards with a 5-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for a pair of scores through two games.  2nd-team All-American RB Ismail Mahdi is back after rushing for 1,331 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.  He has rushed for 182 yards and a touchdown in two games.  2nd-Team All-Sun Belt WR Joey Hobert is back after catching 76 balls for 895 yards and 8 TD last year for the Bobcats.  He has 10 receptions for 143 yards and 2 TD thus far.

Arizona State is improved this season but is certainly getting too much credit for its 2-0 start.  The Sun Devils beat Wyoming 48-7 in Week 1, but that's the same Wyoming team that went on to get upset by FCS Idaho at home in Week 2.  Last week they beat Mississippi State 30-23 as a 6.5-point favorite, but the Bulldogs are one of the worst teams in the SEC this season.  This will be ASU's toughest test yet, and they should not be road favorites here.

Texas State has a huge rest advantage getting to stay at home and play on a short week here Thursday.  They will also be on ESPN for the first time in a very long time, and they will take advantage of their opportunity to make their case in front of a National TV audience that they should be the Group of 5 representative in the playoff.  Arizona State must travel to Texas State on this short week after a physical game against Mississippi State, while the Bobcats made easy work of UTSA and will still be fresh as a result.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Texas State Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cubs/Dodgers OVER 9

These are two of the hottest lineups in baseball.  The forecast is going to help us cash in this OVER 9 ticket with temps around 70 and 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.  This has the makings of a slug fest between the Dodgers and Cubs in Game 3 tonight after they combined for 14 runs in Game 1 and 9 more in Game 2.

The Cubs are capable of covering this total on their own.  Bobby Miller has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, but the Dodgers just keep sending him out there to get battered.  Miller is 2-4 with a 7.79 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 11 starts this season, allowing 43 earned runs and 15 homers in 49 2/3 innings.

Jordan Wicks is the better starter in this matchup, but the Dodgers will do enough against him to help us cash in this OVER 9 ticket.  Wicks is 2-3 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in eight starts and one relief appearance for the Cubs.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Cubs and Dodgers with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +153

The Chicago Cubs are still alive for the NL wild card and every game is a must-win for them from here on in.  They have come up clutch, going 13-5 in their last 18 games overall to stay alive, including wins in each of the first two games of this series while outscoring the Dodgers 16-7 thus far.

Now the Cubs have the advantage on the mound in Game 3 and will pull off the sweep as they should not be underdogs.  Jordan Wicks is 2-3 with a 4.03 ERA in eight starts and one relief appearance this season for the Cubs.

While not great, Wicks has been much better than Bobby Miller, who has been one of the worst starters in baseball yet the Dodgers keep sending him out there.  Miller is 2-4 with a 7.79 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 11 starts this season, allowing 43 earned runs and 15 homers in 49 2/3 innings.  Wrong team favored.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Red Sox OVER 9

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off tonight in Game 3 of this series between Baltimore and Boston.  The Orioles are scoring 4.9 runs per game while the Red Sox are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season, and this total of 9 is too short.

Dean Kremer is 7-9 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 21 starts for the Orioles this season.  Kremer has allowed 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 innings in his last three starts against the Red Sox for a 5.79 ERA.

Nick Pivetta is 5-10 with a 4.38 ERA in 22 starts for the Red Sox this season.  He has allowed 24 homers in those 22 starts, including 10 homers and 23 earned runs in 36 innings in his last seven starts for a 5.75 ERA during this stretch.  Pivetta allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings in his lone start against the Orioles this season on August 15th.

Nine of the last 11 meetings between the Orioles and Red Sox at hitter-friendly Fenway Park have seen 10 or more combined runs, making for a 9-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 9-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Cubs/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

There are two of the hottest lineups in baseball.  The forecast is going to help us cash in this OVER 8 ticket with temps in the 70's and 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.  This has the makings of a slug fest between the Dodgers and Cubs in Game 2 tonight after they combined for 14 runs in Game 1 last night.

No question Shota Imanaga is having an impressive rookie season, but he hasn't faced a lineup as potent as the Dodgers.  They are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season and have been on a tear since getting healthy.  They will get to Imanaga tonight.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be making his first start for the Dodgers since June 15th.  He will be on a pitch count, and the Cubs will get to him and this Los Angeles bullpen that is pretty taxed right now.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 9 or more combined runs in six of those seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers/Diamondbacks OVER 7.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 28-14 in their last 42 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 180 runs in their last 27 games for an average of 6.7 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

This total of 7.5 is too low for a game involving the Diamondbacks.  That's especially the case considering the Rangers are hot as well scoring 6 runs or more in five of their last eight games overall.

Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen both get a lot of respect from the books, but both have struggled compared to normal this season.  Eovaldi has allowed 7 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Arizona.  Gallen has allowed 9 earned runs in 22 innings in his last four starts.

The OVER is 31-8-1 in Diamondbacks last 40 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 30 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Padres/Mariners Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

The San Diego Padres have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 4.8 runs per game.  They have been at their best offensively on the road as well.  The Seattle Mariners are heating up at the plate scoring a total of 38 runs in their last five games for an average of 7.6 runs per game.

This total of 7 is too low for these two offenses going up against these two starting pitchers.  Yu Darvish is working his way back from injury making just his 2nd start since May.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings to the Tigers while throwing just 63 pitches in his first start back, and he'll surely be on a pitch count again tonight.

George Kirby is going through his worst stretch of the season for the Mariners.  He has allowed 21 earned runs and 9 homers in 31 innings in his last six starts for a 6.10 ERA.  This despite facing a soft schedule of the Tigers (twice), Pirates, Giants, Angels and A's.  The Padres will get to him tonight as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Orioles/Red Sox OVER 9

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off tonight in Game 2 of this series after a 12-3 win by the Red Sox in Game 1 that saw 15 combined runs.  The Orioles are scoring 4.9 runs per game while the Red Sox are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season, and this total of 9 is too short.

Kutter Crawford is 8-13 with a 4.08 ERA in 29 starts for the Red Sox this season.  Crawford has allowed 8 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in two starts against the Orioles this season.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

Albert Suarez has solid numbers for the Orioles, but he is one of the biggest regression candidates here down the stretch because he pitches too much to contact and isn't used to this kind of workload.  Suarez has just 87 K's in 113 1/3 innings, and he has never pitched more than 84 innings in his career.  He allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 1/3 innings to the lowly White Sox in his last start.  

Nine of the last 10 meetings between the Orioles and Red Sox at hitter-friendly Fenway Park have seen 10 or more combined runs, making for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 9-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* MLB GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Mets -122

I love everything about the New York Mets tonight.  They are streaking right now going 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  They have come up clutch to take a one game lead on the Atlanta Braves in the race for the final wild card spot in the National League.  And I fully expect them to take care of the hapless Toronto Blue Jays tonight.

David Peterson is arguably the single-most underrated starter in baseball this season.  Peterson is 9-1 with a 2.75 ERA in 17 starts this season.  Amazingly, he has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 15 of his 17 starts.  What more does this guy have to do to get some respect?

I'll gladly fade Chris Bassitt, who is 9-13 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 28 starts for the Blue Jays this season.  Bassitt has allowed 18 earned runs, 5 homers and 41 base runners in 27 innings in his last five starts coming in.

The Blue Jays have waved the white flag.  They are 1-6 in their last seven games overall while being held to 3 runs or fewer in 9 of their last 12 games.  They were already without one of their best hitters in Bo Bichette, and they just lost their best hitter in Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.322, 28 HR, 94 RBI this season) for this series.  Bet the Mets Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Royals/Yankees OVER 8.5

Two of the best offenses in the American League square off in this series between the Yankees and Royals.  The Yankees are scoring 5.1 runs per game while the Royals are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season.

Seth Lugo is having a great season for the Royals, but one of his worst starts came against the Yankees on June 10th.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings for the Yankees, and they will get to him again tonight after putting up 10 runs on the Royals last night.

The Royals will get their bats going against Marcus Stroman, who allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 3 2/3 innings to the Blue Jays in his last start.  Stroman has a 4.03 ERA on the season and pitches too much to contact with just 105 K's in 143 innings.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 11 or more combined runs in three of the four.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Nationals UNDER 8

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have gone 86-53 UNDER in all games this season.  Their lineup has been decimated by injuries, but their staff has carried them into playoff contention.  The Nationals have been even worse offensively than the Braves this season.

Reynaldo Lopez is having himself a season.  Lopez is 8-5 with a 2.04 ERA in 23 starts for the Braves this season.  He has been absolutely dominant since returning from the IL, allowing just 5 earned runs in 23 innings with a whopping 34 K's in his last four starts.  Lopez has held the Nationals to 3 earned runs in 12 innings with 14 K's in two starts against them this season.

MacKenzie Gore has been a bright spot for the Nationals this season.  He has allowed just 4 earned runs in 18 innings with 19 K's in his last three starts.  Gore owns the Braves, allowing just 3 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings with 21 K's for a 1.56 ERA in three starts against them in 2024 alone.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cubs/Dodgers OVER 9

Two pitchers who shouldn't even be starting at the major league level right now square off tonight against two of the hottest lineups in baseball.  The forecast is going to help us cash in this OVER 9 ticket as well with temps in the 90's and 11 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.  This has the makings of a slug fest between the Dodgers and Cubs in Game 1 tonight.

Kyle Hendricks is 3-11 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 20 starts and five relief appearances for the Cubs this season.  If they had anyone other than Hendricks for those 20 starts, they would probably be in the playoffs right now.  But they keep sending him out there to get battered every start.

Walker Buehler is 1-4 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 12 starts for the Dodgers this season.  They keep sending him out there thinking he'll return to form, but it's not happening.  Buehler's fastball velocity is way down from back when he was dominant and he gives up a ton of hard contact and only 7.5 K/9 this season.

Hendricks allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings of a 9-7 win over the Dodgers in his lone start against them back on April 5th.  He has now allowed 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 10 or more combined runs in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Jets/49ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York +4.5

The New York Jets have managed to fly under the radar this offseason despite being in the biggest media market in pro sports.  That's a good thing because they haven't caused many headlines, and they are ready to go for the 2024 season.

The same cannot be said for the San Francisco 49ers.  They had two big contract holdouts in LT Trent Williams and WR Brandon Aiyuk.  The 49ers eventually signed both, but not until the week before this game.  The chemistry will be off for the 49ers early in the season as a result.

The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing.  It's usually a good move to fade the Super Bowl loser every season, especially early in the year, and especially in Week 1.  Indeed, the loser of the Super Bowl from the previous season has gone 4-20 ATS in Week 1 over the last 24 years.  It makes sense because these teams aren't over their Super Bowl loss, and it's tough for them to get focused for another run after coming so close.

The Jets should be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They lost Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending injury in his first drive of the season last year.  Just having him healthy will make a huge difference alone.  It was a minor miracle the Jets won 7 games last year while playing three QB's that may never start another game in the NFL.

That was a testament to their defense, which will once again be one of the best in the NFL and is a better unit than what the 49ers have to offer.  They finished 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed last season.  Headlining this defense is DT Quinnen Williams, LB's C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams, and CB Sauce Gardner.  All four rank near the top of the NFL at their respective positions.

The Jets gave Rodgers plenty of help on offense.  They signed veteran WR Mike Williams and he will be opposite stud youngster Garrett Wilson.  Third-round pick Malachi Corley is drawing comparisons to Deebo Samuel.  RB Breece Hall is one of the best in the league and showed he is fully recovered from his torn ACL in 2022 with a big finish last season.  

The Jets really bolstered what was one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last year.  They used the No. 11 pick on to challenge RT Morgan Moses.  They signed G John Simpson from Baltimore, and C Joe Tippmann was a second-round pick last year that will only improve.  They signed LT Tyron Smith from Dallas, and RG Alijah Vera-Tucker is solid when healthy, which is the case currently.

New York head coach Robert Saleh knows what to expect from Kyle Shanahan after serving under him as their defensive coordinator before taking his current job.  I like how healthy the Jets are and how under the radar they are flying heading into the season.  I will gladly fade the 49ers and their crazy offseason, plus the Super Bowl hangover factor.  

Aaron Rodgers is a perfect 10-0 SU in his last 10 Monday Night Football starts.  Underdogs are 29-12-1 ATS in the last 42 MNF games.  Bet the Jets Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Pirates OVER 7.5

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 78-62 OVER in all games.  They allow 5.2 runs per game on the season with a terrible staff.  But they are raking at the plate right now scoring 19 runs in two games against the Phillies over the weekend.

The Pirates are also raking right now, scoring at least 5 runs in five of their last seven games with the OVER going 5-2 during this stretch.  They should stay hot against Valente Bellozo, who is 2-2 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in nine starts for the Marlins this season.  He pitches too much to contact with just 33 K's in 47 2/3 innings.

It's no secret that the Pirates are close to shutting down Paul Skenes.  He isn't going very deep into games and he is on a pitch count.  He hasn't pitched past the 6th inning in any of his last seven starts.  This awful Pirates bullpen will be exposed late in this game as the Marlins tack on a few extra runs if we need them.  Both teams will be scoring in the later innings as the Marlins have an awful bullpen as well.  

The OVER is 4-0 in four meetings between the Marlins and Pirates this season with 9 or more combined runs in all four games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* DBacks/Astros ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 27-14 in their last 41 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 169 runs in their last 26 games for an average of 6.5 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

The Astros have scored 19 runs in the first two games of this series.  I expect them to get to Ryne Nelson, who is 10-6 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 24 starts for the Diamondbacks this season.

Justin Verlander continuously gets too much respect from the books and is washed up.  Verlander is 3-5 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  He has allowed 19 earned runs and 41 base runners in 24 2/3 innings in his last five starts for a 6.93 ERA. 

The OVER is 30-8-1 in Diamondbacks last 39 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 29 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +3.5

The Washington Commanders finally have new ownership.  They have a new head coach in Dan Quinn and a new offensive coordinator in Kliff Kingsbury.  They took Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick, and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.  The Commanders have new life and there is a buzz around the building about the prospects of this team.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers back-doored the NFC South title last year.  But the NFC South is the worst division in football.  And they lost arguably the most important piece to that run in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who took the head coaching job of the Carolina Panthers.  Canales was with Geno Smith for his career year in Seattle, and he was with Baker Mayfield for his career year in Tampa Bay last season.  I think this offense takes a big hit without Canales running it.

The Commanders had the worst turnover differential (-14) in the NFL last season while the Buccaneers (+6) had one of the best.  The Bucs were one of the luckiest teams in the NFL last year, and they benefited from playing in the worst division in football.  The Commanders were one of the most unlucky teams.  As a result, this line is inflated and we are getting great value on the Commanders +3.5 in Week 1 when I believe they are actually the better team.

I love the additions the Commanders made along the offensive line and at running back.  They also made some great additions at linebacker, and the front seven is very strong to make up for their one weakness, which is the secondary.  The Commanders will have the element of surprise because the Bucs won't know what to expect from Daniels in Kingsbury's offense.  I think they both shine in Week 1.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans -2.5

The Houston Texans chased down the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South last year in rookie QB CJ Stroud's first season.  He was by far the best QB of the rookie class and is already one of the best QB's in the NFL.  He is a big reason I believe the Texans are a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season.

The Texans won a playoff game by blowing out the Browns, but then lost at Baltimore in the Divisional Round.  They showed they could play with the big boys, and the pieces they added in the offseason and better health could have them really making some noise this season.

The Texans added two huge pieces on offense in RB Joe Mixon and WR Stefon Diggs.  Diggs is just one of three talented receivers that Stroud will be throwing to.  Nico Collins took a big leap last year and was their top receiver, and Tank Dell was dynamite before being lost for the season due to injury in Week 13.  TE Dalton Schultz is also one of the most underrated in his position in the league.

While the Houston offense gets all the headlines, this is going to be one of the best defenses in the NFL as well.  Not only did Stroud win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the Texans moved up to No. 3 to draft Will Anderson, who won Defensive Rookie of the Year.  They do lose Jonathan Greenard and his 12.5 sacks last year, but replace him with Danielle Hunter, who had had 16.5 sacks with the Vikings last year and is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL.  Anderson and Hunter form arguably the best pass-rushing tandem in the league.

They replaced Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins with Foley Fatukasi and Denico Autry.  Fatukasi is one of the best runs stuffers in the league, whlie Autry is coming off a 12.5-sack season. CB Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the best in the league, and they spend 2nd and 3rd round picks on Kamaris Lassiter and Calen Bullock to bolster the defensive backfield.  Jimmie Warn and Jalen Pitre are two quality safeties.  Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be their top linebacker.

The Indianapolis Colts are relying on 2nd-year pro Anthony Richardson at quarterback.  While he has the physical tools, he struggles with accuracy and is almost more of a threat in the running game.  His reckless style led to him getting hurt in every game he played last year.  While the offense should be good in the running game with Jonathan Taylor, I don't love the weapons on the outside.

The main problem with the Colts is defense.  They have a solid defensive line, but linebacker and secondary is a weakness.  The Colts haven't recovered from Shaq Leonard's decline and eventual release.  E.J. Speed and Zaire Franklin are liabilities in coverage.  We are getting the Texans at a discount in the opener as short 2.5-point road favorites.  

The Colts are 1-14-1 ATS in their last 16 Week 1 games.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Dolphins OVER 48.5

This is going to be a shootout between what will turn out to be two of the best offenses in the NFL in the Jaguars and Dolphins.  Temps will be in the 80's with less than 10 MPH winds and only a 25% chance of rain in Miami, so conditions were perfect for that shootout as well.

The Dolphins probably have the best offense in the NFL.  They put have averaged 35.5 points per game in the first three games of the season under current head coach Mike McDaniel.  They have all their weapons back from last year, plus open the season with a healthy offensive line, which wasn't the case last year.

The problem for the Dolphins is defense, where they will be without five of their top six leaders in sacks from last season due to either moving on to a different team or due to injury.  CB Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a hamstring injury as well.  This banged up, short-handed defense will get tired and shredded in the Miami heat.

The Jaguars are loaded on offense this season.  They put up big numbers before Trevor Lawrence got hurt last year.  They added C Mitch Morse and rookie WR Brian Thomas with the only key loss being WR Calvin Ridley.  They will have better health alone the offensive line and start the season intact up front.

The Jaguars did not play well defensively last year ranking 26th in defensive EPA for the season, including bottom 10 in both stopping the run and defending the pass.  They hired Ryan Nielsen as their new defensive coordinator.  He runs a more aggressive style with lots of man-to-man coverage.  But that's exactly the type of defense that the Dolphins shred as they are much worse against 2-high zone defenses.  Look for Jacksonville's defense to be out of sorts in Week 1 trying to execute the new scheme against the league's top offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Titans/Bears OVER 44.5

The Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans are two offenses I am very high on this year.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two offenses.  These were two poor offenses last year, and that perception is creating value for us to take the OVER 44.5.

The Bears got the No. 1 overall pick in Caleb Williams and he's already probably the best QB they have had in 20-plus years.  They used the 8th pick on WR Rome Odunze, signed one of the most productive WR's in the game in Keenan Allen, and signed WR DJ Moore to a new contract after a big season last year.  TE Cole Kmet is one of the most underrated in the game.  RB D'Andre Swift comes over from the Eagles to give them a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield with Khalil Herbert.

The Titans also made massive improvements to the offense this offseason.  They brought in WR's Calvin Ridley from the Jaguars and Tyler Boyd from the Bengals after signing WR DeAndre Hopkins last year.  RB's Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears form a solid 1-2 punch as both are weapons catching the ball out of the backfield.  Now QB Will Levis has a chance to shine under first-year head coach Brian Callahan, who was the offensive coordinator of the Bengals.  He brought in his dad, one of the best O-Line coaches ever, to work with an improved offensive line.  They used the 7th overall pick on LT JC Latham, while also signing C Lloyd Cushenberry, and this should now be one of the most improved O-Lines in the league.

The Bears have some significant injuries on defense.  They were fortunate late in the season with some turnover luck that made their numbers look better than they really were.  The Titans can expose them in Week 1.  While the Titans did make some improvements on defense, they can only go up from here after having one of the worst stop units in the league last year.  They will be improved to probably league average, but the Bears should be able to exploit them as well, especially at linebacker.

It's rare you get a forecast this nice at Soldier Field in Chicago.  Temps will be in the 60's with single-digit winds.  Both Williams and Levis are in line for big days in a game that should easily top 44.5 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Giants +2

Note: I also played a 6-point teaser on the Giants +8/Cowboys +8.5

The New York Giants surprised and made the playoffs in Brian Daboll's first season on the job in 2022.  They also got a full healthy season out of QB Daniel Jones.  That wasn't the case last year as the Giants went through three different QB's and were even starting Tommy DeVito down the stretch.  They finished 6-11 in a forgetful season.

Now DaBoll is taking over play-calling duties and putting his money where his mouth is.  The Giants stuck with Jones at QB so they could make improvements elsewhere and actually get him some help for once.  They did that instantly in the draft by taking WR Malik Nabers from LSU with the 6th pick.  He is the guy they wanted all along, even over Marvin Harrison Jr., which is saying something.

They lost RB Saquon Barkley and replaced him with RB Devin Singletary, but running backs aren't worth much and I like the replacement.  They spent big money to get one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL in DE Brian Burns.  They shored up the offensive line by signing OT Jermaine Eluemunor, G Jon Runyan and G Aaron Stinnie.  They got the secondary some help with S Tyler Nubin and CB Andru Phillips with their second and third picks in the NFL Draft, respectively.

It's the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Giants as home underdogs against a Minnesota Vikings team that has no business being a road favorite.  Injuries have really decimated the Vikings this offseason.  They just can't catch a break.  

They moved up to draft JJ McCarthy, and now he is out with a season-ending injury suffered in the preseason.  Now their fate is in the hands of QB Sam Darnold, who is no more than a decent backup in this league.  I would take Daniel Jones over Darnold any day.

4th-round pick Khyree Jackson died in a traffic accident two months after getting drafted.  They lost one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL in Danielle Hunter, who had 16.5 sacks last year and was a big reason defensive coordinator Brian Flores' aggressive system worked.  TE TJ Hockenson is out with an injury, and WR Jordan Addison has an ankle injury but is expected to play.  

Daboll is a perfect 7-0 SU in his last seven games as a head coach or offensive coordinator against a Brian Flores-coached defense.  He has him figured out.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Orioles UNDER 8

I love taking UNDERS in these early start time games.  This game is scheduled for 12:05 EST and will be the first game off the board.  Players tend to be sleep-walking through these games, and it will benefit both starting pitchers, which I am a fan of.

The Rays have one of the worst offenses in baseball.  They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in eight of their last 13 games overall.  The Orioles aren't exactly crushing the ball right now either.  They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in nine of their last 16 games overall, including a total of 4 runs in their last three games.

Corbin Burnes is 13-7 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 28 starts this season.  After a rough stretch recently, he has gotten it together allowing just 2 earned runs in 10 innings in his last two starts.  Burnes has owned the Rays this season, allowing just 3 earned runs in 13 innings in two starts against them.

Zack Littell is going through one of his best stretches of the season for the Rays.  He has allowed just 7 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings in his last five starts for a 2.36 ERA.  Littell has held his own against the Orioles, allowing 7 earned runs in 17 innings in his last three starts against them this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Colorado/Nebraska NBC No-Brainer on Nebraska -7

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  In Matt Rhule I trust.  He is a program builder, and he will have the Huskers going bowling for the first time since 2016.  Rhule went 2-10, 6-6, 10-4 and then 10-4 in his four years at Temple.  He went 1-11, 7-6 and then started 10-1 in his three seasons at Baylor.

Rhule has 17 starters back this season.  Eight starters return to an elite defense that allowed just 18.3 points per game last season.  The Huskers have one of the best defensive lines in the country leading the way.  They can rely on this defense to be competitive in every game.

But the real excitement comes on offense, where nine starters return and they add in the 2nd-rated QB in the entire country in 5-star prospect Dylan Raiola.  He lit it up in the Spring Game and is the real deal.  Raiola gives the Huskers hope, and he has a solid offensive line and receivers in front of him.They added Jahmal Banks from Wake Forest and Isaiah Neyor from Wyoming as two very good weapons outside.

The Huskers were sharp in their 40-7 win over UTEP as 27.5-point home favorites in the opener.  Raiola lived up to the hype, completing 19 of 27 passes for 238 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover.  

Now the Huskers want revenge from a 36-14 loss at Colorado last year.  The Huskers committed 4 turnovers to give the game away in what was a closer game than the final score would indicate.  Now Nebraska gets Colorado at home this time around and it will be a raucous atmosphere with Deion Sanders coming to town, and fans gushing with optimism about this team.

Colorado has two elite players in QB Shedeur Sanders and WR/CB Travis Hunter, but not much else.  Defense is a problem after allowing 34.8 points per game and 453 yards per game last season.  That defense wasn't much better in a 31-26 win over North Dakota State as 11.5-point favorites in the opener.  The Buffaloes allowed 449 total yards to the Bison, who aren't as strong as they normally are in the FCS after losing their head coach to USC and a All-American safety to injury.

Nebraska will get enough stops here and will likely score at will against this soft Colorado defense to cover this 7-point spread.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Western Michigan +38.5

Ohio State is the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public that are very tough to live up to.  We saw that play out last week against Akron as the Buckeyes failed to cover as 49-point favorites.

The Buckeyes won that game 52-6, but it was much closer than that.  This was a 17-3 game at halftime.  Ohio State scored two defensive touchdowns in the win.  They only gained 404 total yards against Akron.  Now they must face a much better team from the MAC in Western Michigan, and they should not be laying 38.5 points to them.

The Broncos are a contender to win the MAC this season.  Second-year head coach Lance Taylor has a much better team this season with 17 starters back after returning only 10 starters in his first season last year.  They return nine starters on offense including stud QB Hayden Wolff, 1,000-yard rusher Jalen Buckley and their leading receiver in Kenneth Womack.  Eight starters are back on defense and 11 of their top 14 tacklers return.

Western Michigan was very impressive in a 28-14 loss at Wisconsin as 24-point underdogs in the opener.  The Broncos actually led that game 14-13 in the 4th quarter and had the Badgers on the ropes.  Wolff completed 12-of-18 passes and Buckey rushed for two touchdowns in the loss.  The defense was the most impressive, holding the Badgers to 388 total yards and only 4.7 yards per play.  They are more than capable of staying within 38 points of the Buckeyes.  Bet Western Michigan Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Georgia Southern/Nevada OVER 55

This is a very low total for a game involving Georgia Southern.  The Eagles put up 30.2 points per game last season and allowed 30.5 points per game.  Six of their final seven games last season saw 62 or more combined points.

The Eagles opened with a 56-45 shootout loss to Boise State this season that saw a whopping 101 combined points.  Putting up 45 points and 461 total yards on that Boise State defense is no small feat.  The Eagles also ran at the 5th-fastest tempo of any team in Week 1 averaging 21.2 seconds between offensive snaps.  That won't change all season.

Nevada looks vastly improved offensively this season.  The Wolf Pack put up 24 points on a very good SMU defense in the opener.  They then scored 28 points on what was a very good Troy defense last season.  QB Brendon Lewis is completing 67.4% of his passes with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio thus far while also rushing for 111 yards in two games.

The OVER is 7-1 in Georgia Southern's last eight games overall.  The OVER is 4-1 in Nevada's last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Alabama/Ohio OVER 55.5

Offensive-minded Major Applewhite takes over for defensive-minded Kenny Wommack, who was just hired as defensive coordinator at Alabama.  Applewhite was the offensive coordinator here the last three seasons and led the Jaguars to 33.1 points per game last season and 31.2 points per game in 2022.

The South Alabama defense only returns three starters this year and could be one of worst stop units in the country.  That was in display when they lost 52-38 to North Texas in their opener in a game that saw 90 combined points.  They allowed 550 total yards including 446 passing to the Mean Green.

But South Alabama had a big day offensively and ran at one of the fastest tempos in college football last week.  The Jaguars had 582 total yards themselves.  Gio Lopez, who led South Alabama to a 59-10 win over Eastern Michigan in their bowl game last year, is the new QB.  He accounted for a school record 494 yards and 4 total TD with 432 passing and 62 rushing.

Ohio lost 38-22 to Syracuse in the opener.  The Orange had 480 total yards while the Bobcats had 436 total yards in what could have been an even bigger shootout if not for four field goals.  This Ohio defense only returned four starters and is going through some growing pains early.  But I liked what I saw from this Ohio offense, especially Northwestern transfer RB Anthony Tyus, who rushed for 203 yards and 2 TD on what was supposed to be a solid Syracuse defense.

With South Alabama playing at a rapid pace, this game should easily see OVER 55.5 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rays/Orioles UNDER 8

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 8 ticket between the Orioles and Rays today.  There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from left at Camden Yards in this one that will keep the ball in the park.

The Rays have one of the worst offenses in baseball.  They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in eight of their last 12 games overall.  The Orioles aren't exactly crushing the ball right now either.  They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in eight of their last 15 games overall, including a total of 3 runs in their last two games.

Zach Eflin is 10-7 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  He is going through his best stretch of the season right now, allowing just 4 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings in his last four starts for a 1.37 ERA.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in six consecutive starts, including 2 runs or fewer in five of those.

Ryan Pepiot is 7-6 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 21 starts for the Rays this season.  He is going through his best stretch of the season as well, allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in nine consecutive starts, including 2 runs or fewer in eight of those nine.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Diamondbacks/Astros OVER 8

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 27-13 in their last 40 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 164 runs in their last 25 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

Eduardo Rodriquez has taken a step up in competition here of late and has not fared well.  He has allowed 8 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers and Mets.  Now he must face a Houston lineup that just hung 8 runs on the Diamondbacks yesterday.  Rodriquez has allowed 13 earned runs, 3 homers and 28 base runners in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Astros.

Yusei Kikuchi is getting a lot of respect with this total set so low at 8.  But Kikuchi had one of his worst starts of the season against the Diamondbacks back on July 14th.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 8-7 win over Arizona in a game that saw 15 combined runs.

The OVER is 29-8-1 in Diamondbacks last 38 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 28 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Group of 5 ANNIHILATOR on Texas State -2.5

G.J. Kinne massively exceeded expectations in his first season at Texas State after coming off from Incarnate Word where he led them to a 12-2 season in 2022 with a record-setting offense.  Kinne led the Bobcats to an 8-5 season in his first year on the job including an upset road win over Baylor as a 27-point dog.

Now Texas State returns 18 starters this season and is a legitimate playoff contender to be the Group of 5 representative.  Nine starters are back from an offense that put up 36.7 points per game and 459 yards per game.  Texas State allowed 398 yards per game on defense last year and has nine starters back after having just four starters back last season and will be improved on D.

This is a great opportunity to 'buy low' on Texas State.  Everyone will see that they only beat Lamar 34-27 as a 33.5-point favorite last week.  But a deeper dive into the box score shows that this was a much bigger blowout.  They led 18-0 at halftime and took their foot off the gas, likely looking ahead to this huge showdown with UTSA.  They still outgained Lamar 486 to 288, or by nearly 200 yards.

1st-team All-Sun Belt QB Jordan McCloud has transferred in from James Madison.  He went 21-of-30 for 238 yards and 3 touchdowns in the opener.  2nd-team All-American RB Ismail Mahdi is back after rushing for 1,331 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.  He rushed for 156 yards and a score in the opener.  2nd-Team All-Sun Belt WR Joey Hobert is back after catching 76 balls for 895 yards and 8 TD last year for the Bobcats.  He had 6 receptions for 91 yards and 2 TD in the opener.

UTSA returns 14 starters from a team that went 9-4 last season.  But the losses are big for the Roadrunners.  They lose the school's all-time leading passer in QB Frank Harris (11,858 yards) who was the biggest reason for their success over the last five seasons.  They lose their all-time leading receiver in Joseph Cephus (3,639 yards).  They also lose their best defensive player in AAC Defensive Player of the Year Trey Moore, who had 14 sacks last year.

Much more concerning than Texas State's 34-27 win over Lamar was UTSA's lackluster 28-16 win over Kennesaw State as a 23.5-point favorite.  This is Kennesaw State's first season as a FBS member.  They went 3-6 last season at the FCS level and could be the worst team in the FBS this season.  UTSA managed just 76 rushing yards on 34 carries against Kennesaw, averaging a paltry 2.2 yards per carry.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Iowa CBS ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -2.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes own the Iowa State Cyclones.  They have gone 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings and should be more than 2.5-point favorites in Iowa City at home in this rivalry game Saturday.

Iowa returned 18 starters this season.  They have a healthy QB in Cade McNamara to start the season and finally a new offensive coordinator in Tim Lester from Western Michigan.  They have one of the best defenses in the country once again.

The new offense produced 492 total yards in a 40-0 win over Illinois State, which was ranked 19th in FCS coming into the season.  The 492 total yards are their most since 2019.  In fact, the Hawkeyes got 3 receiving touchdowns from their wide receivers, and they had 3 all of last season!

Iowa State was much less impressive in their 21-3 win over North Dakota as a 30-point favorite.  North Dakota was ranked 24th in FCS coming into the season.  This game was much closer than the 18-point margin would indicate.  The Cyclones only outgained the Eagles 353 to 295, or by 58 total yards.  They allowed 174 rushing yards to the Eagles.

Most concerning for the Cyclones was rushing for 86 yards on 22 carries themselves, and if they can't run it against Iowa they have no shot as a one-dimensional passing team.  Iowa State has injuries on the offensive line and at RB that are concerning, plus they are without their two best linebackers in Caleb Bacon and Will McClaughlin, who both finished in the Top 5 in tackles last year.  Bacon is the leader of the defense and was lost against North Dakota, while McClaughlin will miss the first two games at least.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Auburn -12

Hugh Freeze is one of my favorite coaches to back in all of college football.  He turned around Ole Miss and Liberty and now he is going to turn around Auburn.  This is his 2nd season on the job and they are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country after a 6-7 campaign in his first season last year.

Auburn is loaded with 17 returning starters.  The Tigers are off to a great start with a 73-3 beat down of Alabama A&M as a 48-point favorite.  QB Payton Thorne threw 4 touchdown passes and should be much more comfortable in his 2nd season in this system.

California just can't seem to get over the hump under Justin Wilcox and it's surprising he enters his 8th season.  The Golden Bears have finished with a losing record in four consecutive seasons coming in.  They are going to be very overmatched in the talent department against a dynamite recruiter in Freeze and a team from the SEC.

California was very unimpressive in a 31-13 win as a 20.5-point home favorite against UC-Davis in the opener.  In fact, UC-Davis actually outgained California 304 to 281 in what was a very misleading final.  They had 3 turnovers compared to one for California as well.  The Golden Bears also scored on a kickoff return TD.  Cal averaged just 4.3 yards per play against UC-Davis, and that's a bad sign going up against this stout Auburn defense on the road this week.  The Tigers win and cover with room to spare in this one.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Louisville -27

Jeff Brohm is one of my favorite head coaches to back in all of college football.  He wins everywhere he goes.  He dominated at Western Kentucky.  He took Purdue to the Big Ten Championship Game in his final season in 2022.  And now he led Louisville to a 10-4 season and a trip to the ACC Championship Game in his first season in 2023.

Brohm welcomes back 15 starters from that 10-win team.  He brought in former Oregon and Texas Tech transfer Tyler Shough at QB.  He added a pair of stud WR's in Caullin Lacy from South Alabama (1,316 yards LY) and Ja'Corey Brooks from Alabama.  He nabbed three more transfers on the offensive line and has 172 career starts returning up front.

The defense allowed just 21.3 points per game and 317 yards per game last season.  That's the great thing about Brohm is that he's an offensive guy, but his teams always exceed expectations defensively as he doesn't ignore it.  Seven starters return on defense including five of their top seven tacklers.  They add in Cal transfer DE Myles Jernigan, Harvard transfer DT Thor Griffith and UCF transfer CB Corey Thornton.

Louisville opened with a dominant 62-0 win over Austin Peay as a 39.5-point favorite.  They led 59-0 after three quarters before calling off the dogs.  Shough threw 4 touchdown passes, and the defense held them to just 106 total yards in the win.

Jacksonville State delivered a surprising 9-4 campaign in Rich Rodriquez's first season as a FBS member.  But they played one of the softest schedules in the country and took advantage.  Now they have just 9 returning starters losing their QB, their top 3 RB's and their top 2 WR's.  The defense lost 5 of their top 6 tacklers from a year ago.  They are without WR Brannon Spector and RB Ron Wiggins due to injury, both of which were expected to be starters this season.

It was a very concerning 55-27 loss as a 3.5-point favorite against Coastal Carolina that has me on Louisville this week.  Jacksonville State allowed 552 total yards including 294 rushing to what was supposed to be a mediocre Coastal Carolina team.  They managed just 357 yards and 123 rushing themselves, and they are knowing as a running team under Rodriquez.  

Louisville is going to be able to name its number against this Jacksonville State defense and continue piling up the points for four quarters.  The Cardinals have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for this game with nothing to look ahead to.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Illinois +29.5

Notre Dame is in quite the sandwich spot here.  The Fighting Irish are coming off their massive 23-13 upset win at Texas A&M.  They have a road game at Purdue on deck next week, and sandwiched in between is this contest against MAC opponent Northern Illinois.  I expect the Fighting Irish to be flat and to not worry about trying to get margin in this game.

Notre Dame has one of the best defenses in the country, but a suspect offense due to having three freshmen and two sophomores on the offensive line.  They didn't do much against Texas A&M, and they will struggle to even score 28 points in this one, which is going to make it hard to cover this 29.5-point spread.  I love taking big underdogs against defensive-minded teams like Notre Dame.

Northern Illinois went 7-6 last season and is a legit contender to win the MAC this season, so they are no pushover.  The Huskies return 16 starters this season, including eight from a defense that allowed just 21.0 points per game and 320 yards per game a year ago.  This could be the best defense in the MAC.

Northern Illinois was impressive in its 54-15 win over Western Illinois as a 35.5-point favorite.  The Huskies led 41-3 less than two minutes into the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs.  New QB Ethan Hampton went 18-of-20 for 328 yards and 5 TD in the win.  RB Antario Brown rushed for 1,296 yards and 10 TD last year and had 69 yards on 8 carries in the opener.  WR Trayvon Rudolph had 531 receiving yards and 2 TD last year while also rushing for 182 yards and a score.  Rudolph had 4 receptions for 104 yards and 2 rushed for 67 yards and 2 total TD in the win.

Northern Illinois is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games a road underdog.  They have 36 seniors on their roster and upset Boston College on the road last year.  Notre Dame beat Central Michigan 41-17 as a 34-point favorite last year.  They lost 26-21 as a 20-point favorite against Marshall in 2022.  They beat Toledo 32-29 as a 17-point favorite in 2021.  They are notorious for not getting margin against these Group of 5 teams earlier in the season.  Asking them to win by more than 4 TD to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Northern Illinois Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on on Bowling Green +35

Bowling Green is one of the most underrated teams in the country this season and a legit contender to win the MAC.  Scot Loeffler enters his 6th season at Bowling Green coming off a 7-6 campaign.  He has 15 starters back from a team that finished very strong last year.

The Falcons went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six MAC games last year with their lone loss coming against arguably the best team in the MAC in Toledo by a final of 32-31.  They also went on to lose to Big Ten foe Minnesota 30-24 in the Quick Lane Bowl.

Now the Falcons get the opportunity to face another Big Ten opponent in Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are certainly one of the better teams in the country this season, but the Falcons will be the team that is more excited for this game.  Penn State is in a letdown spot off their 34-12 win at West Virginia which proved a lot of naysayers wrong.  They won't be nearly as excited to try and put Bowling Green away by five-plus touchdowns, which is what it would take for them to cover.

The Falcons beat Fordham 41-17 as 15.5-point favorites in their opener.  Terion Stewart rushed for 161 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Falcons rushed for 303 yards as a team.  Stewart average 6.1 yards per carry last season and will be tougher to tame than Penn State bargained for, especially running behind an offensive line that returns eight of their top 10 from last year.  QB Connor Bazelak is back as is leading receiver Harold Fannin.  And this Bowling Green defense is way underrated, allowing 24.0 points and 326 yards per game last season with seven starters back this season.  

The Falcons played Michigan tough last year in a 31-6 loss as 40-point road underdogs.  That's a Michigan team that went on to go 15-0 and win the National Championship.  The Falcons won't be intimidated by Penn State.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Army +4

The Army Black Knights went 6-6 last season but were not invited to a bowl for a 2nd consecutive seasons.  They were extremely motivated in the offseason because of it, and I think the Black Knights are a sleeping giant this season as a result.

This could be one of the best offenses of the Jeff Monken era in his 11th season on the job.  Eight starters return on offense this season including senior QB Bryson Daily.  He threw for 913 yards and 7 TD last season while also rushing for a team-high 901 yards and 7 scores.

Daily and the offense got going in a big way in a 42-7 win over Lehigh as a 32-point favorite in their opener.  They racked up 375 rushing yards including 78 and two touchdowns from Daily.

Florida Atlantic is a team I'm not very high on this year.  Tom Herman went 4-8 in his first season with the Owls last year and brings back just 12 starters this season.  The offense is a mess, and QB Cam Fancher is one of the worst quarterbacks in the country.  It's amazing Herman couldn't recruit someone better than Fancher, who has a 21-to-17 TD/INT ratio and almost zero mobility in 3 years at Marshall before coming here.

FAU is getting too much respect for covering in a 16-10 loss at Michigan State as 12-point underdogs in their opener.  But the Spartans are a rebuilding team with a new head coach after last year's 4-8 disaster.  The Spartans led 16-3 at halftime but didn't score after intermission and have a lot of work to do offensively more than anything.

The Owls managed just 248 total yards against the Spartans.  Fancher was his usual terrible self, completing just 12-of-25 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown with 2 interceptions.  He rushed for 67 yards on 25 carries, an average of 2.7 yards per carry.  It's amazing how much the Owls are relying on this guy for all of their offense.

Now I think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Owls after getting to face a team from the Big Ten and just coming up short.  It's a hangover spot for sure as they won't be nearly as motivated to face Army.  And they won't be looking forward to practicing all week against the triple-option.  Herman has almost no experience facing the triple-option, and the same goes for FAU.  They won't be prepared.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* Packers/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on Philadelphia -2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles already had one of the best offenses in the NFL.  Now they add in RB Saquon Barkley, who is arguably the best RB in the NFL when healthy.  They also traded for Josh Doctson of the Commanders to give them a true No. 3 receiver to compliment arguably the best duo in the entire NFL in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.

The defense was the weakness of the Eagles last year.  They addressed that in the offseason starting with the hiring of Vic Fangio at defensive coordinator.  They signed LB Devin White and S Chancey Gardner-Johnson.  They added two of the top CB's in the draft in the first two rounds in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.

There is a lot of hype surrounding the Green Bay Packers with the way they finished last season.  But I just don't think they are on Philadelphia's level to start this season.  I like Jordan Love and the talented young receivers he has to work with, but they lose dynamic playmaker Aaron Jones and replace him with Josh Jacobs, who has carried a heavy workload with the Raiders and can't do as much as Jones in the receiving game.  His backup in AJ Dillon has been lost for the season, so there's not much depth behind him.

The Packers lost former first-round pick Darnell Savage at safety and LB De'Vondre Campbell, who was one of the best LB's in the NFL.  They nabbed Jeff Hafley from Boston College as their defensive coordinator and have struggled finding a coordinator for years.  They just cut K Anders Carlson shortly before the season, and they could struggle in the kicking game until the find a serviceable replacement.

I have the Eagles at least a FG better than the Packers on a neutral this year, and this game will be played in Brazil on a neutral.  Getting -2.5 is a nice value on them to start the season.  Bet the Eagles Friday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Diamondbacks/Astros OVER 7.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 27-12 in their last 39 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 164 runs in their last 24 games for an average of 6.8 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

Framber Valdez commands a lot of respect from oddsmakers but he is getting too much here.  The Diamondbacks of all teams can get to him.  The Astros will get their offense going against Brandon Pfaadt, who has allowed 13 earned runs and 30 base runners in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.

The OVER is 28-8-1 in Diamondbacks last 37 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 28 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Kansas City Royals -131

I love the spot for the Kansas City Royals tonight.  They had yesterday off and were able to stay at home after being at home in their last series.  Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins just completed a 4-game series in Tampa Bay yesterday and will be a tired team with a tired bullpen with four of their last five games decided by exactly one run.

The Royals have a big advantage on the mound tonight as well.  Cole Ragans is 10-9 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 28 starts this season with 197 K's in 161 1/3 innings.  Ragans has owned the Twins this season, allowing just 5 earned runs in 18 innings with 24 K's in three starts against them in 2024.

Rookie Zeb Matthews is off to a rough start for the Twins.  Matthews is 1-2 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 innings.  Bet the Royals Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles -136

The Baltimore Orioles lead the New York Yankees by 0.5 games in the AL East and have a lot to play for.  The Tampa Bay Rays are all but eliminated from postseason contention and will struggle to be motivated the rest of the way.

I love the fact that the Orioles have the rest advantage over the Rays after having yesterday off, while the Rays were completing a 4-game series against the Twins yesterday.  Their 4-0 comeback attempt came up short in a 4-3 loss, and there could be a hangover effect here.

Dean Kremer has been pretty solid in his last four starts allowing 9 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings without allowing a single homer.  He has owned the Rays of late, allowing one earned run in 11 innings in his last two starts against them.  Baltimore will get to Shane Baz tonight as well.  

Baltimore is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with Tampa Bay with all six wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Orioles Friday.

20* BYU/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 56.5

The BYU Cougars and SMU Mustangs should take part in a shootout Friday night at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX.  The forecast is perfect with temps in the 90's and light winds at game time as both defenses will be worn out in the second half with these hot temps.

SMU is an offensive juggernaut this season and has been for the last five years.  The Mustangs have averaged at least 37.2 points per game for five consecutive seasons.  They put up 38.7 points per game and 454 yards per game last season and brought back eight starters from that team.

QB Prestone Stone is back after completing 60% of his passes for 3,197 yards with a 28-to-6 TD/INT ratio.  Each of his top six receivers are back as are each of the top three running backs.  The Mustangs led 42-7 at halftime against Houston Christian last time out before calling off the dogs in a 59-7 win.  

With this spread sitting at -11 right now, this game is expected to be competitive so SMU will keep the foot on the gas for four quarters.  The Mustangs run one of the fastest tempos in all of college football ranking 4th in seconds per play (20.6) currently.

BYU should be improved offensively in a big way this season.  The Cougars return eight starters on offense.  Kedon Slovis was a major disappointment at QB last year, and backup Jake Retzlaff is ready to take the reigns.  Retzlaff threw for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 41-13 win over Southern Illinois in the opener as a 16.5-point favorite.

Six of the top seven receivers return including Chase Roberts, who had 42 receptions for 573 yards and 5 TD last season.  He had 7 receptions for 108 yards in the opener.  Leading rusher LJ Martin returns after rushing for 518 yards and 4 TD on 4.8 per carry last year.  Martin had 67 rushing yards on 13 carries and a score in the opener.  This is a veteran offensive line as well.

BYU had its worst season in years defensively after joining the Big 12 last season.  The Cougars allowed 29.8 points per game and 418 yards per game.  They only return six starters on defense and lose their top two tacklers.  SMU should be able to name its number on this BYU defense, which allowed 31 or more points eight times last year against mostly Big 12 competition.  The Cougars will have to try and play catch up which will only benefit this OVER 56.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Ravens/Chiefs NFL Season Opener on UNDER 47.5

The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens meet in a rematch from the AFC Championship Game last year.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and these teams have had all offseason to prepare for one another to boot.  Points will be hard to come by as a result.

UNDERS usually dominate in Week 1 of the NFL season with defenses ahead of the offenses.  I expect that to be the case here.  Kansas City beat Baltimore 17-10 in the AFC Championship Game for just 27 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch.

A lot has been made of the improvements the Chiefs have made offensively in the offseason adding Hollywood Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy.  However, Brown has been ruled out with an injury, and I don't expect much from Worthy in his first game in the league.  This Kansas City offense won't be hitting on all cylinders until Brown returns.

Lamar Jackson will be rusty after not seeing any action in the preseason.  The Chiefs have him figured out as well as their Cover 0 scheme is the one he struggles against most.  After making a big mistake by throwing the ball too much against KC in the AFC Championship Game, the Ravens will be looking to pound the rock which is what they are best at.

Both teams have their best chance at success on the ground.  Both defenses are way more vulnerable against the run than they are against the pass.  With so much of this game being played on the ground, there will be fewer clock stoppages.  These were two of the top scoring defenses in the NFL last year and both will be elite again this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Marlins OVER 8

The Philadelphia Phillies have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 4.8 runs per game.  The Miami Marlins have been a dead nuts OVER team this season due to allowing 5.1 runs per game.  They are hitting well of late scoring 4.9 runs per game in their last eight games.

Ranger Suarez just returned from injury after missing a month and has been on a pitch count with just 72 and 78 pitches in his first two starts back from injury.  Suarez allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings to the Braves in his last start.  Suarez allowed 6 earned runs and 12 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Marlins on June 30th.

Adam Oller is getting too much respect here for the Marlins.  Oller is 4-10 with a 6.53 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 18 starts and 13 relief appearances in his career in the big leagues.  He is a pitch to contact pitcher with just 75 K's in 110 1/3 innings.  

The Marlins and Phillies have combined for at least 8 runs in nine of their last 13 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks/Giants OVER 7

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 27-11 in their last 38 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 162 runs in their last 23 games for an average of 7.0 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The San Francisco Giants are improved offensively this season scoring 4.3 runs per game.  They have scored at least 3 runs in 10 of their last 11 games coming in.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between the Diamondbacks and Giants.  They have combined for at least 8 runs in seven of those eight meetings, including 10 runs or more six times.

Merrill Kelly has been a mess since returning from injury for the Diamondbacks.  He was out from April until August.  Kelly has allowed 14 earned runs, 6 homers and 31 base runners in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts.  Kelly has allowed 14 earned runs, 5 homers and 29 base runners in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Giants as well.

No question Blake Snell is one of the best starters in baseball.  But he struggled mightily in his lone start against the Diamondbacks this season, who have the best offense in the league.  Snell allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 2/3 innings of a 17-1 loss to Arizona on April 19th.

The OVER is 28-7-1 in Diamondbacks last 36 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 28 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks/Giants OVER 7.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 26-11 in their last 37 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 156 runs in their last 22 games for an average of 7.1 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The San Francisco Giants are improved offensively this season scoring 4.3 runs per game.  They have scored at least 3 runs in nine of their last 10 games coming in.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between the Diamondbacks and Giants.  They have combined for at least 8 runs in six of those seven meetings, including 10 runs or more five times.

The Diamondbacks are capable of covering this total on their own against Hayden Birdson, who his 3-4 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 11 starts for the Giants this season.  Birdsong has really struggled of late, allowing 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 2/3 innings in his last five starts.

Zac Gallen gets a lot of respect but he has regressed this season with a 3.87 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 23 starts.  He has huge home/road splits in his career, going 30-18 with a 3.01 ERA at home but 19-19 with a 3.63 ERA on the road.  Gallen has allowed 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 26 base runners in 16 innings in his last three starts against San Francisco.

The OVER is 27-7-1 in Diamondbacks last 35 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 27 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Giants/Diamondbacks OVER 7.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 25-11 in their last 36 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 148 runs in their last 21 games for an average of 7.0 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

The San Francisco Giants are improved offensively this season scoring 4.3 runs per game.  They have scored at least 3 runs in eight of their last nine games coming in.  They should do enough against Ryne Nelson, who is 9-6 with a 4.22 ERA in 23 starts this season for the Diamondbacks.

But Arizona should do the heavy lifting today against the Giants, who are likely to make this a bullpen game.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between the Diamondbacks and Giants.  They have combined for at least 8 runs in five of those six meetings, including 10 runs or more four times.  

The OVER is 26-7-1 in Diamondbacks last 34 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 26 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Dodgers/Angels OVER 9

The Los Angeles Dodgers have finally returned to health in their lineup and it is starting to show.  They have scored 6 runs or more in nine of their last 12 games and are now scoring 5.0 runs per game on the season.  They have scored a total of 32 runs in their last four games.

The Dodgers will do the heavy lifting in us cashing this OVER 9 ticket tonight.  They should feast on Reid Detmers, who is 3-6 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Detmers will be making his first start since June 1st and will be on a pitch count.  He allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 1/3 innings of a 10-5 loss to the Dodgers in his last start against them.

The Angels should do their fair share of damage off Walker Buehler, who just hasn't been the same pitcher he was before injury.  Buehler is 1-4 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  His velocity is way down as he has just 39 K's in 49 innings.  

The OVER is 6-0 in Dodgers last six games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all six.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pirates/Cubs OVER 7

The Chicago Cubs are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall to play themselves back into NL Wild Card contention.  They are riding the hottest offense in baseball scoring a total of 102 runs in their last 11 games for an average of 9.3 runs per game.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 8-19 in their last 27 games overall to play themselves out of contention.  This Pittsburgh staff has been atrocious as the Pirates have allowed 60 runs in their last seven games overall for an average of 8.6 runs per game.

It's mind-blowing that the Cubs keep sending Kyle Hendricks out there.  He is 3-10 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 19 starts this season with just 69 K's in 102 2/3 innings.  Hendricks has allowed a whopping 13 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Pirates this season.

Paul Skenes goes for the Pirates but he is on a pitch count as they are close to shutting him down now that they are out of contention.  His pitch count has steadily decreased in his last three starts and he only lasted 5 innings in his last start against the Cubs after 82 pitches.  This Pittsburgh bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball after he departs.

The Pirates and Cubs have combined for at least 8 runs in 14 of their last 16 meetings.  The OVER is 10-1-1 in Cubs last 12 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all 12 games, making for an 12-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 7-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Phillies/Blue Jays Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

The Philadelphia Phillies have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 4.8 runs per game.  They are basically fully healthy right now and potent when that's the case.  The Blue Jays have a great lineup and are healthy, but their pitching staff is one of the worst in baseball, especially their bullpen.

The Phillies should have plenty of success off Chris Bassitt, who is 9-13 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 27 starts for the Blue Jays this season.  Bassitt has allowed 15 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.

The Blue Jays should also have plenty of success against Tyler Phillips, who has allowed 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 innings in his last three starts for a 13.91 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Orioles OVER 8.5

The Orioles beat the White Sox 13-3 in Game 1 yesterday and are more than capable of covering this total on their own in Game 2 as well.  But I expect the White Sox to have plenty of success at the plate in this one.

Cade Povich is 1-7 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 11 starts for the Orioles this season.  He has allowed 41 earned runs, 9 homers and 26 walks in 52 innings.

Nick Nastrini is 0-6 with a 7.04 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in seven starts for the White Sox this season.  He has allowed 24 earned runs, 7 homers and 26 walks in 30 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pirates/Cubs OVER 7.5

The Chicago Cubs are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall to play themselves back into NL Wild Card contention.  They are riding the hottest offense in baseball scoring a total of 99 runs in their last 10 games for an average of 9.9 runs per game.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 7-19 in their last 26 games overall to play themselves out of contention.  This Pittsburgh staff has been atrocious as the Pirates have allowed 57 runs in their last six games overall for an average of 9.5 runs per game.

Jared Jones just returned from the IL and made his first start since July 3rd in a 9-5 loss to the Cubs on August 27th.  Jones allowed 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 8 base runners in 4 innings in that contest.  I expect the hot-hitting Cubs to get to him again.

But the Pirates should do enough off Jameson Taillon to contribute to us cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket.  Taillon has allowed 17 earned runs and 5 homers in 22 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 6.75 ERA.  Taillon has allowed 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 24 base runners in 17 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Pirates.

The Pirates and Cubs have combined for at least 9 runs in 13 of their last 15 meetings.  The OVER is 9-1-1 in Cubs last 11 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all 11 games, making for an 11-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 7.5-run total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* BC/Florida State ESPN No-Brainer on Boston College +20.5

Note: I released BC +20.5 last Saturday. Still a 20* down to +14.5 but will be graded at +20.5.

The Florida State Seminoles showed their vulnerabilities last year after losing starting QB Jordan Travis to injury.  They only beat Florida 24-15, beat Louisville 16-6 and lost 63-3 to Georgia in their final three games without him.  DJ Uiagalelei is on his 3rd team in 3 years and is a big step down from Travis.

Only five starters return on offense as the Seminoles lose their top three receivers from last year as well as leading rusher Trey Benson.  It's going to take a few games for Uiagalelei to get acclimated to Mike Norvell's offense and all these new playmakers.

Florida State only returns five starters from what was a loaded defense last year.  They lost five starters to the NFL draft including a first, two seconds and a 3rd-round pick.  It's a tall task for this inexperienced defense to try and have to defend a dual-threat QB like Thomas Castellanos in their 2nd game of the season.

I was on Georgia Tech +10.5 over Florida State in Dublin, Ireland.  The Yellow Jackets won outright.  I'm fading Florida State for many of the same reasons, plus a few others.  The trip back from Dublin will mean the Seminoles have spent a few days getting acclimated to the time zone change.  No question they will try to respond off that upset defeat, but they aren't good enough to beat Boston College by three touchdowns or more.

Georgia Tech manhandled Florida State at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  There was nothing fluky about their upset win, and if anything they shouldn't have even needed a last-second field goal to beat the Seminoles.  Florida State's defense has struggled with dual-threat QB's like Haynes King.

Boston College is loaded with 17 returning starters as new head coach Bill O'Brien steps into a great situation.  O'Brien was born in Boston and meant to be a college head coach.  The key is returning QB Thomas Castellanos, who threw for 2,248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year while also rushing for 1,113 yards and 13 scores.

Boston College nearly upset Florida State in a 31-29 loss as 25-point underdogs last season.  The Eagles outgained the Seminoles 457 to 351, or by 106 total yards and should have won outright.  Castellanos went off for 305 passing yards and 95 rushing yards in the loss.  He will have another big game here to keep the revenge-minded Eagles in it for four quarters.  

Rested teams in Week 1 against teams that played in Week 0 have the advantage with film on their opponent who they have been preparing for all offseason.  Teams that played in Week 0 were game planning for a different opponent.  That is evident by the fact that the rested teams in Week 1 playing their first game of the season are 60-34 ATS since 2005 against teams with a game under their belt like Florida State.  Bet Boston College Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 25-10 in their last 35 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 142 runs in their last 20 games for an average of 7.1 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

The Dodgers have finally returned to health in their lineup and it is starting to show.  They have scored 6 runs or more in eight of their last 11 games and are now scoring 5.0 runs per game on the season.

Eduardo Rodriquez will be making just his 5th start of the season for the Diamondbacks.  He faces the Guardians, Rockies and Marlins in his first three starts and fared decent.  But then he stepped up in class against the Mets last time out and allowed 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings.  Rodriquez now faces his toughest task of the season against the Dodgers.  He has allowed 9 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Los Angeles.

Jack Flaherty hasn't exactly been dominant since getting traded to the Dodgers.  He has allowed 11 earned runs, 6 homers and 30 base runners in 22 1/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.  Flaherty has allowed 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 24 base runners in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Diamondbacks as well.

The OVER is 25-7-1 in Diamondbacks last 33 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 25 of them.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks with 10 or more combined runs in eight of them, including 19, 14, and 17 combined runs in the first three games of this series.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* LSU/USC ABC No-Brainer on USC +4.5

The USC Trojans are going to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  Lincoln Riley has always been able to coach up an offense with several Heisman Trophy winners coming from his offenses at quarterback.  But he has neglected defense up to this point, until now.

Riley made one of the best hires of the offseason by bringing in defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn from crosstown rival UCLA.  His defense thrived last year and actually held USC to a season-low in points.  Not to mention, Riley was able to bring in two-time FCS national championship winning head coach Matt Entz from North Dakota State to be the linebackers coach and help out with the defense.

With nine starters back on defense and a ton of talent, I trust Lynn and Entz to get the most out of this unit.  This could be the best defense Riley has ever had.  And I trust his offense enough that I'm not worried about them returning just five starters on offense.  QB Miller Moss threw 6 touchdown passes against Louisville in the bowl game and is ready to be the next Heisman Trophy candidate.  Riley believes this is his most talented offensive line in his three years here as well.

Speaking of Heisman Trophy winners, LSU had to part ways with Jayden Daniels, who threw for 3,812 yards with a 40-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 1,134 yards and 10 TD last year.  He is simply irreplaceable, and I"m not a big fan of his replacement in Garrett Nussmeier, who has completed less than 60% of his passes in his three years here.  The Tigers lose two NFL receivers in Malik Nabers (89 receptions, 1,569 yards, 14 TD) and Brian Thomas (68, 1,177, 17 TD) to the draft.

LSU allowed 28.0 points per game and 417 yards per game last season.  Only six starters are back on defense, and this unit is a big question mark again heading into 2024.  Brian Kelly brought in defensive coordinator Blake Baker from Missouri, but that's not nearly as big of an upgrade as USC.  The Tigers also lost their offensive coordinator in Mike Denbrock to Notre Dame.

This game will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.  It's a short drive for USC fans and they will have the home-field advantage.  I think they are the better team and should not be underdogs in this opener as well.  Lincoln Riley is 38-4 SU in the first six games of the season, including a perfect 12-0 at USC.  Bet USC Sunday.

20* NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 24-10 in their last 34 games overall and closing in on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 128 runs in their last 19 games for an average of 6.7 runs per game.  They have the best offense in baseball at 5.4 runs per game.

The Dodgers have finally returned to health in their lineup and it is starting to show.  They have scored 6 runs or more in eight of their last 10 games and are now scoring 5.0 runs per game on the season.

Justin Wrobleski is 1-1 with a 4.68 ERA in five starts this season with 7 homers allowed in 25 innings.  Brandon Pfaadt is 8-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 26 starts this season.  Pfaadt has allowed 14 earned runs and 3 homers in 17 innings in his last three starts coming in.

The OVER is 24-7-1 in Diamondbacks last 32 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 24 of them.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks with 10 or more combined runs in seven of them, including 19 and 14 combined runs in the first two games of this series.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-121)

The Baltimore Orioles are 1.5 behind the New York Yankees for 1st place in the AL East with a lot to play for over the final month of the season.  They should be bigger favorites on the Run Line against the Colorado Rockies, who are 51-86 this season and one of the worst teams in baseball.

The Orioles have a big advantage on the mound over the Rockies today.  Zach Eflin is 9-7 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  Eflin has allowed just 3 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  Eflin has allowed just 5 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Rockies despite pitching at Coors Field in two of them.

Ty Blach is 3-6 with a 6.36 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 10 starts and eight relief appearances for the Rockies this season.  Blach has allowed 13 homers and 45 earned runs with only 34 K's in 63 2/3 innings this season.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Sunday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -1.5 (-104)

The New York Mets are trying to chase down the Atlanta Braves in the NL wild card race.  They cannot afford to take the Chicago White Sox lightly and they haven't.  The White Sox are 31-106 this season and setting records for being the worst team in baseball.

Sean Manaea is 10-5 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 26 starts this season and one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts and will extend that streak to eight today.

Chicago ace Garrett Crochet gets the ball today.  But the White Sox are close to shutting him down as they have pulled him after 4 innings in nine consecutive starts now.  That means the Mets will get to batter this awful Chicago bullpen for at least 5 innings, and that should be enough to win this game by multiple runs.  Bet the Mets on the Run Line Sunday.