|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-04-23||Bengals v. Jaguars -7||Top||34-31||Loss||-115||190 h 53 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Jaguars ESPN No-Brainer on Jacksonville -7
BONUS TEASERS: I am doing every combination of teasers with the Jaguars, Cowboys and Dolphins this week getting them all below -3 using 6 and 6.5-point teasers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 8-3 this season and a legitimate contender for the top seed in the AFC. They have gotten their offense going coming out of the bye scoring 34 points in a 34-14 win over the Titans at home and then 24 points in a 24-21 road win at Houston. They also had 445 total yards on the Texans and should have scored more, getting stopped at the 1-yard line right before halftime and also missing a FG.
Now the Jaguars will hang a big number on arguably the worst defense in the entire NFL right now in the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are allowing 389.0 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season. They just allowed the Pittsburgh Steelers to top 400 yards, which is remarkable considering Pittsburgh had gone 58 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense.
That was a very misleading final against the Steelers that is keeping this line lower than it should be. The Steelers outgained the Bengals 421 to 222, or by 199 total yards. They only won 16-10 and should have won by more. They dropped a wide open TD among other fluky mistakes.
The Bengals allowed 34 points and 405 yards to the Ravens the week prior and 30 points and 544 yards to the Texans the week before. The Jaguars will be able to name their number on this soft Cincinnati defense, and the Bengals won't be able to keep up without Joe Burrow. It was an ugly showing for Jake Browning in his first start in place of Burrow as he led the Bengals to just 222 total yards and 10 points. It won't go any better against one of the top defenses in the NFL in the Jaguars, who allow just 20.5 points per game and 342.4 yards per game this season.
Jacksonville is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after covering the spread in three of its last four games. The Bengals are 1-25 SU in road-neutral night games over the last 25 years. They are on a 16-game losing streak in this spot with their last win in Philadelphia in 2012. Zac Taylor is 4-20 SU as a head coach of the Bengals without Joe Burrow as his QB.
Plays against road teams (Cincinnati) - with a pathetic defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play after being outgained by 150 or more yards in their previous game are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Jaguars Monday.
|12-04-23||San Jose State v. North Dakota State -2.5||78-83||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on North Dakota State -2.5
I love the spot for North Dakota State tonight. They want revenge from a 78-65 road loss at San Jose State in their last game on November 27th. They have been thinking about that game for a week and have had the last six days off to rest and prepare to beat the Spartans in the rematch at home this time around.
San Jose State doesn't have that same luxury. They have actually played two road games since that home win over North Dakota State. The Spartans lost at Cal Poly outright as 9-point favorites on November 29th, lost by 17 at Montana as 3-point dogs on November 2nd, and now they have just one day to get ready for San Jose State. They will be playing in their 4th different city in 8 days and are running on fumes right now. They won't have much left in the tank for the Bison.
North Dakota State has played a road-heavy schedule this season with six of their first eight games away from home. They did beat Montana 78-69 as 8.5-point road dogs, which is the same team that just beat San Jose State by 17. In their two home games they rolled to 27 and 29-point victories. I think they roll again tonight given the revenge factor and the massive rest and preparation advantage. Bet North Dakota State Monday.
|12-04-23||Celtics v. Pacers OVER 238||Top||112-122||Loss||-110||35 h 32 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on OVER 238
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 16-2 OVER in all games this season. They are scoring 128.8 points per game and allowing 125.9 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating.
The Boston Celtics are more of an OVER team this season. They rank 9th in offensive rating and are scoring 116.7 points per game on 47.3% shooting. They hung 155 points on the Pacers in their lone meeting with them this season in a 155-104 win that saw 259 combined points. I think this rematch will be a lot closer, but it will also sail OVER this 238-point total.
Indiana games have seen at least 237 combined points in 16 of their 18 games this season. Both Kristaps Porzingis and Tyrese Haliburton sat out their last game for their respective teams. I think that was caution more than anything, and both will likely play tonight. But it won't matter either way I like the OVER. The Pacers won 144-129 at Miami without Haliburton and the Celtics won 125-119 at home against the 76ers without Porzingis.
Indiana is 13-0 OVER when revenging a loss this season. The Pacers are 20-2 OVER in their last 22 games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game. Indiana is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. teams that win more than 70% of their games. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|12-03-23||49ers v. Eagles||Top||42-19||Win||100||163 h 24 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco PK
I love the spot for the San Francisco 49ers this week. They have extra rest after playing last Thursday while also recently getting a bye. They are about as healthy as they have been all season and showing what they can do when healthy, going 3-0 since the bye while outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 92-30, or by an average of over 20 pints per game.
Now the 49ers have their sights set on revenge on the Philadelphia Eagles, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Brock Purdy got hurt in the first half of that game against the Eagles and it really changed the game. To a man, the 49ers believe they would have won that game if he finished the game healthy. Now they'll be out to prove it.
The Eagles are a tired team that has been through the gauntlet. They just went to OT against the Bills last week in a downpour. They came back from a double-digit 2H deficit to beat the Chiefs on Monday Night Football the week prior. And they held off the Cowboys 28-23 at home with a late stand the game prior. So this will be their 4th consecutive game against one of the top teams in the NFL, and they have a rematch with the Cowboys on deck next week.
The Eagles' defense in particular is worn out. They were on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs and then 91 plays against the Bills last week. They gave up 505 total yards to the Bills last week. They lost DT Fletcher Cox and LB Zach Cunningham to injury in that game, and both are very questionable to play this week and missed practice on Wednesday. OT Lane Johnson is one of their most important players and is questionable to play as well.
The Steelers got a lot of grief for getting outgained in every game this season up until last week. Well the Eagles have been working miracles with what they have been able to do in recent weeks. They beat the Commanders four games ago despite giving up 472 total yards and getting outgained by 98 yards, they beat the Cowboys three games ago despite allowing 406 yards and getting outgained by 114 yards, they beat the Chiefs two games ago despite getting outgained by 98 yards and they beat the Bills last week despite allowing 505 yards and getting outgained by 127 yards.
As you can see, the Eagles have been outgained by 98 or more yards in four consecutive games and won them all. They are the luckiest team in the NFL going 7-1 in games decided by one score. I think their luck runs out this week against a 49ers team that wants it more, is the better team and is the much healthier team.
The 49ers have elite numbers this season scoring 28.2 points per game and allowing 15.5 points per game, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per gmae. They are outgaining opponents by 91 yards per game and outgaining them by 1.5 yards per play on the season. The Eagles are now only outgaining opponnets by 23 yards per game and 0.2 yards per play. They are much closer to an average team than their record would indicate simply due to their luck in close games.
The 49ers are 8-0 when they've had Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams on the field at the same time this season with all eight wins coming by 7 points or more and seven of those eight wins by 13 points or more. They improve to 9-0 with Samuel and Williams on the field this week. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|12-03-23||Murray State v. Illinois State -1.5||72-76||Win||100||5 h 46 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Illinois State -1.5
It's time to 'sell high' on Murray State off their upset home win over Bradly as 3.5-point dogs. Bradley was looking ahead to their game against Indiana State. Murray State has not been good beating Tennessee Tech by 6 as 12.5-point home favorites, losing to WKU by 5 as 1-point home favorites, losing to App State by 10 as 2.5-point neutral dogs and losing to UNC-Wilmington by 2 as 5.5-point neutral dogs.
Now Murray State will finally have to play their first true road game this season. Illinois State has only played two home games this season and won both. They also won a true road game at Illinois Chicago outright by 5 as 5.5-point dogs last time out. That was a very impressive win. They upset Long Beach State by 9 as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral as well. I like what I've seen from this team enough to know they will cover as a short home favorite here.
Murray State is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games following an ATS win. The Redbirds are the way better defensive team holding opponent 9.1 points per game below their season averages this year. Murray State only holds opponents to 1.1 points per game below their season averages. Bet Illinois State Sunday.
|12-03-23||Clemson v. Pittsburgh -1.5||79-70||Loss||-110||4 h 54 m||Show|
15* Clemson/Pittsburgh ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -1.5
The Clemson Tigers are in a massive letdown spot today. They are coming off a 85-77 upset road win as 8-point underdogs at Alabama on November 28th. Now I expect them to fall flat on their faces at Pittsburgh this afternoon.
Meanwhile, the Panthers will be highly motivated for a victory after getting upset by Missouri at home as 7-point favorites last time out. So this is also a 'buy low' spot on the Panthers off an upset loss, and a 'sell high' spot on the Tigers off an upset win.
Clemson is 7-18 ATS in its lat 25 road games following a road win. Brad Brownell is 2-9 ATS in road games off a road win as the coach of Clemson. Pittsburgh is 29-12 ATS in its last 41 games overall. The Panthers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games. Jeff Capel is 18-7 ATS vs. top-level teams that win more than 80% of their games as the coach of Pittsburgh. The Panthers will hand the Tigers their first loss of the season today. Bet Pittsburgh Sunday.
|12-03-23||Lions v. Saints OVER 44.5||Top||33-28||Win||100||160 h 53 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Saints OVER 44.5
The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL and a very leaky defense. This is a very low total for a game involving the Lions, so I jumped on this OVER 44.5 early in the week when the lines came out.
In their last four games the Lions scored 26 points and had 486 total yards against the Raiders, scored 41 points and had 533 yards against the Chargers, scored 31 points and had 338 yards against the Bears and scored 22 points and had 464 yards against the Packers. They are pretty much fully healthy on offense and showing how good they can be when that's the case.
But the Lions have been a disaster on defense over the last three weeks. They have allowed 31.0 points per game, 377.3 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play despite facing the Bears, Packers and Chargers, so it's not like they have faced any elite offenses. They lost LB Alex Anzalone against the Packers and he is doubtful to play Sunday. Even the New Orleans Saints are going to hang a big number on the Lions this week.
Injuries have really decimated this New Orleans defense. They were already without their top CB in Marshon Lattimore, then they lost DE Cameron Jordan last week against the Falcons and he is their best defensive lineman. Jordan is very questionable to play in this game after not practicing all week. S Marcus Maye and LB Pete Werner have both been ruled out as well.
The Saints allowed 27 points and 388 total yards to a mediocre Vikings offense and 24 points and 396 total yards to a mediocre Falcons offense in their last two games. They have now allowed at least 24 points in four of their last five games overall with the lone exception coming against the Bears, who turned it over five times or would have scored more.
The OVER is 6-2 in Detroit's last eight games overall with 44 or more combined points in six of hose eight games. The OVER is 3-2 in Saints last five games overall with at least 39 combined points in all five, and 46 or more combined points in three of the five. It will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome in New Orleans. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-03-23||Broncos v. Texans OVER 45||17-22||Loss||-110||148 h 37 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Broncos/Texans OVER 45
It has taken a couple miracles to keep the last two Houston games under the total. I know because I've been on the over in both of them, and both losses were bad beats. I think there's value in the OVER in a Houston game this week as a result.
Houston and Arizona scored 31 combined points in the 1st half two weeks ago. But they only had 6 points after halftime due to CJ Stroud throwing three interceptions inside the Arizona 25-yard line, and the Cardinals turning it over on downs three times in Arizona territory.
Last week, Houston and Jacksonville combined for over 800 yards of offense. But there were three missed FG's and the Jaguars were stopped at the 1-yard line to finish on 45 combined points and under the closing 48-point total. I have to think Houston is going to start cashing in more scoring opportunities, and Denver will get their fair share of points this week as well.
CJ Stroud and this Houston offense are humming right now. The Texans average 375 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season behind a passing game that averages 276 passing yards per game. Stroud is completing 63.7% of his passes for 3,266 yards with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt. He is loaded with receivers on the outside, and both Tank Dell and Noah Brown returned to practice on Thursday. They haven't had each of their top four receivers available since Week 1, making what Stroud has done even more impressive. They should have all four this week.
Russell Wilson is clearly more comfortable in Sean Payton's offense now than he was at the beginning of the season. The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in four consecutive games and an average of 24.5 points per game during this stretch despite facing four good defenses in the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings and Browns. This Houston defense that ha s allowed at least 24 points in three of their last four is actually a big step down in competition for Wilson and company. But the Texans will get their points, and Wilson will be forced to try to keep up in a shootout in perfect conditions inside the dome in Houston.
I don't think this Denver defense is as good as it is getting credit for. The Broncos have benefited from forcing a total of 16 turnovers during their five-game winning streak. But the season-long stats show this is one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Broncos allow 25.5 points per game, 388.3 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season, with the latter two numbers being the worst marks in the league.
Plays on the OVER on any team (Houston) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent in the 2nd half of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) over the last five seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-03-23||Cardinals v. Steelers -5.5||24-10||Loss||-110||91 h 54 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers went 58 games in a row without gaining 400 yards. It spanned from Matt Canada's first game as offensive coordinator to his last. Fittingly, Canada was fired last week, and the Steelers topped 400 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals. They used the middle of the field a lot more with TE Pat Freirmuth and got their running game going, which has quietly been dominant in recent weeks.
The Steelers have rushed for at least 153 yards in four consecutive games and an average of 174 yards per game to take some pressure off Kenny Pickett. He had one of the best games of his career against the Bengals, going 24-of-33 passing for 278 yards without an interception in the win. The Steelers outgained the Bengals by 200 yards and should have won by more as it was a misleading final in a 16-10 win. I think that misleading final is keeping this line shorter than it should be.
Now the Steelers get to go up against a similarly poor defense in the Arizona Cardinals this week. The Cardinals gave up 419 yards to the Texans two weeks ago and 37 points and 457 total yards to the Rams last week. They should have allowed more points to the Texans as CJ Stroud threw three interceptions inside the Arizona 25-yard line to take points off the board. That was a misleading final and they were fortunate to cover the 5.5-point spread in a 5-point loss.
The Steelers should be able to run the ball at will against an Arizona defense that allows 140 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry. They gave up 228 rushing yards to the Rams last week and have allowed at least 111 rushing yards in seven consecutive games. They just lost their top LB in Kyzir White to a season-ending injury against the Texans and have a ton more injuries that are hampering them defensively.
The offense doesn't look any better with Kyler Murray at QB than it did with Josh Dobbs. They managed just 16 points against the Texans two weeks ago and 14 points against the Rams last week. Three key playmakers in WR Marquise Brown, WR Michael Wilson and TE Trey McBride all missed practice Wednesday and are questionable. Speaking of questionable, the Cardinals have questionable motivation the rest of the way and would be better off trying to tank for a top pick. They may do so without even trying as they are one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Steelers have a lot more to play for and are trying to win a division title. They trail the Ravens by just one game in the division and have the tiebreaker over them. They have five straight very winnable games coming up and want to take advantage. I think with new life on offense and an already dominant defense, the sky is the limit for this team. Plus, they should get S Minkah Fitzpatrick back from injury as he returned to practice this week. They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.
Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Mike Tomlin does a good job of getting his players to take every game seriously the later in the season it gets. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|12-03-23||Dolphins v. Commanders OVER 49||45-15||Win||100||91 h 42 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dolphins/Commanders OVER 49
The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team. They probably currently have the worst defense in the NFL after trading away two of their best defensive linemen in Sweat to the Bears and Young to the 49ers. They also have a ton of injuries in the secondary that are making them dreadful on that end right now.
Indeed, the Commanders have allowed 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to Tommy DeVito and the Giants and 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys in their last three games coming in. It's safe to say this No. 1 ranked Miami offense is going to hang a big number on them this week.
Miami averages 30.8 points per game, 430.5 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season as the top offense in the league. They have managed to stay remarkably healthy at receiver and QB, and now they get their explosive RB in Achane back from a knee injury this week. He averages 11.8 yards per carry with 461 yards and 5 TD. He and Mostert form one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL, and they are in line for big games in this one.
The Dolphins have an improving defense with Jalen Ramsey returning from injury, but unfortunately they lost another key cog last week in pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips late in their 34-13 road win over the Jets. Sam Howell has been one of the most impressive rookies in the NFL for Washington and actually leads the league in passing yards.
Howell has thrown 18 touchdowns against 13 interceptions this season while completing 67% of his passes and averaging 278.3 passing yards per game. He has also rushed for 222 yards and three TD while averaging 6.2 per carry. He is a walking turnover though, so expect some easy scores by the Dolphins due to those turnovers. But Howell will keep coming, and that's what you need when backing an OVER is the trailing team capable of scoring quickly in comeback mode. We have that here on both sides.
Miami is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 road games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 61% or higher completions. Mike McDaniel is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more yards per carry as the coach of the Dolphins. Ron Rivera is 30-12 OVER vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game as a head coach. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-02-23||Blazers +2 v. Jazz||Top||113-118||Loss||-110||11 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +2
The Portland Trail Blazers got two key guards back from injury in Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson. It's no surprise to me that they have been playing well since, and they have been an undervalued commodity in recent games due to their poor start to the season with all these injuries.
Indeed, the Blazers have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They beat Utah 121-105 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 102-108 at Milwaukee as 13-point dogs after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead, won outright at Indiana 114-110 as 12-point dogs and won outright at Cleveland 103-95 as 12-point dogs.
The Blazers aren't just covering they are destroying these spreads. They have covered their last four games by a combined 62 points. Now they are somehow underdogs to the Utah Jazz, who are without their two best players in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson.
It's no wonder the Jazz are struggling going 2-6 SU in their last eight games overall. It's also no wonder their offense is broken as they have scored 105 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall. They are coming off a 90-101 loss at Minnesota which followed up a 91-105 loss at Memphis.
Utah is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Blazers Saturday.
|12-02-23||Louisville v. Florida State UNDER 49||Top||6-16||Win||100||99 h 30 m||Show|
20* Louisville/Florida State ACC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 49
Florida State losing star QB Jordan Travis in a meaningless game against North Alabama is one of the biggest tragedies in college football this season. They were a legit playoff contender with him, but now they may not make it even if they beat Louisville. I don't know if they are going to win the game, but I do know they won't be very good on offense against Louisville with backup QB Tate Rodemaker.
We got to see how they are going to play moving forward with him in a 24-15 win over Florida in an absolute defensive battle last week. That's a Florida team with a terrible defense, too. The Seminoles managed just 224 total yards against Florida while limiting the Gators to 232 yards. They shortened the game running just 57 offensive snaps while Florida ran only 60.
Florida State is going to have to lean on a defense that has been one of the best in the country this season. The Seminoles allow just 16.8 points per game, 316 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play. They will be up against a Louisville team that also relies heavily on defense, allowing just 20.0 points per game, 317 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.
The Seminoles aren't going to let Rodemaker lose the game for them. They are going to try and run the football. Well, the Cardinals are great against the run, allowing 99 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season. Louisville wants to throw the football, and FSU is great against the pass, allowing just 47.7% completions, 175 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt.
There is better than a 50% chance of rain at Bank of American Stadium in Charlotte, NC for this one that could also help keep this one UNDER the total. When the stakes are this high, I usually look to back the UNDER, and this matchup definitely fits the bill.
Florida State is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or higher, and 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt. Louisville is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. They will be much more careful with the ball this week after a fluky 38-31 loss to Kentucky in which turnovers led to easy scores as they held the Wildcats to just 293 total yards for the game. That misleading final also has this total inflated this week. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-02-23||Pacers +3.5 v. Heat||144-129||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +3.5
The Indiana Pacers want revenge from their 132-142 loss at Miami on Thursday. They don't have to wait long to get their revenge as they play again here just two days later Saturday. The difference is the Heat will be missing their best defender and arguably their most important player in Bam Adebayo for the rematch.
While the Pacers will be locked in wanting revenge, the Heat will relax a little not being overly excited to try and beat this team again. I think things will come even easier for the Pacers than they did in that first meeting without Adebayo. The Pacers rank 1st in offensive rating this season and 1st in adjusted tempo. Miami doesn't want to try to defend these guys again.
Miami is 14-27 ATS in its last 41 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 41-11 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Pacers Saturday.
|12-02-23||Pacers v. Heat OVER 240||Top||144-129||Win||100||10 h 40 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Heat OVER 240
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 15-2 OVER in all games this season. They are scoring 127.9 points per game and allowing 125.8 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.
The Miami Heat combined for 255 points with Milwaukee and then 274 points with Indiana in their last two home games. We only need 240-plus combined points to cash this OVER in the rematch, which is 34 points less than what they just combined for on Thursday. We'll get 240-plus tonight, especially with Miami's best defender in Bam Adebayo out for the rematch. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-02-23||Cavs v. Pistons +9.5||110-101||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5
The Detroit Pistons not winning a single game in November has made some headlines lately. Their 17-game losing streak dates back to October 30th. With this media attention comes an opportunity for us to 'buy low' on the Pistons. They will be desperate to end this skid tonight.
The Pistons were competitive in their 112-118 loss at New York last time out as 14.5-point underdogs, and they have been more competitive at home than on the road. Asking the Cavaliers to win this game by double-digits on the road to beat us is asking too much.
The Cavaliers are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall. They lost by 33 to Miami at home, lost by 6 to the Lakers at home, beat the Raptors by just 3 at home and lost outright to the Blazers by 8 as 12-point home favorites. They certainly aren't playing well enough to warrant being this big of a favorite on the road tonight.
Detroit is as healthy as they have been all season with both Ausar Thompson and Bojan Bogdanovic upgraded to probable tonight. The time is now to 'buy low' on the Pistons. Bet the Pistons Saturday.
|12-02-23||George Mason v. Toledo -3.5||86-77||Loss||-110||7 h 30 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Toledo -3.5
I love the spot for Toledo today. After opening the season with blowout home wins over Detroit 94-60 as 15.5-point favorites and LA-Lafayette 87-78 as 7.5-point favorites, they have been on the road since November 11th against some great teams.
Toledo upset Wright State 78-77 as 2.5-point road dogs, then hung with New Mexico in a 92-84 loss, UC-Irvine in a 77-71 loss and Indiana State in a 76-74 loss all on neutral courts. All four of those teams rank in the Top 120 in the country in KenPom, including the last three 76th or higher. It's safe to say Toledo is going to be highly motivated for a victory when they return home for the first time in three weeks.
While Toledo has played the 47th-toughest schedule in the country, George Mason has faced the 260th. That's a big reason GMU is 6-1 this season and overvalued now as a result. Five of the seven games came at home against Monmouth (231), Austin Peay (272), Cornell (110), East Carolina (209) and NJIT (352). They only beat South Dakota State (124) by 2 on a neutral and were upset by Charlotte (134) by 5 on a neutral. Not only will this be the first true road game for George Mason, but it will also be the best opponent they have faced yet this season. I don't expect it to go well for them.
Toledo is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite or PK and the Rockets have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country. The Rockets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game. Bet Toledo Saturday.
|12-02-23||Warriors v. Clippers -4.5||112-113||Loss||-115||6 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -4.5
I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 120-114 loss at Golden State on Thursday. Now they get the Warriors at home in the rematch so they don't have to wait long to get their revenge.
The Clippers were at a big disadvantage in that game at Golden State because they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a shootout 131-117 road win at Sacramento the night before. They didn't have much left in the tank and were still competitive. Now, after having Friday off, I expect a much better effort from them in the rematch.
The Warriors won't be nearly as motivated to beat this team again. Plus, the Warriors are missing two key players in Chris Paul and Gary Payton II, and Andrew Wiggins is questionable. Meanwhile, the Clippers are fully healthy for this one and primed for a big effort.
The Warriors are 20-36 ATS in their last 56 road games. Golden State is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games after going over the total in two consecutive games. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. Enough said. Bet the Clippers Saturday.
|12-02-23||IUPU Ft Wayne v. Oakland -5||98-77||Loss||-110||2 h 29 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Oakland -5
Oakland is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its eight games this season and remains grossly undervalued. You could tell this team was going to be good when they gave two good Big Ten opponents all they could handle in their first two games of the season.
The Golden Grizzlies only lost by 6 at Ohio State as 19.5-point dogs and by 11 at Illinois as 24-point dogs. They blasted Bowling Green 81-62 in their lone home game this season as 2.5-point favorites. They only lost by 8 to Drake on a neutral as 9-point dogs, upset Loyola-Marymount by 5 as 6-point dogs, upset Marshall by 7 as 2.5-point dogs. They then upset Xavier as 15-point road dogs and avoided the letdown by crushing Detroit by 15 as 6.5-point road favorites.
Now Oakland is back home for only the 2nd time all season. Now they will have no problem getting back motivated to play a conference game against IPFW, who looks like one of their biggest threats to win this conference. However, IPFW's 7-1 start is more fool's gold than anything because they have played such a soft schedule.
Indeed, while Oakland has played the 27th toughest schedule int he country, IPFW has played the 333rd-ranked schedule out of 363 teams. That's the reason they were 7-1 more than anything. In their toughest game this season, they lost 76-60 as 13.5-point dogs at San Francisco. I would argue Oakland is the best team they will have played yet this season, and it won't go well for them. Bet Oakland Saturday.
|12-02-23||Indiana State v. Bradley UNDER 150||85-77||Loss||-110||1 h 29 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Indiana State/Bradley UNDER 150
Indiana State and Bradley are two of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season. Both are off to 6-1 starts and both play great defense. Bradley will control the tempo playing at home today ranking 270th in adjusted tempo and 78th in adjusted defense. Indiana State ranks 114th in adjusted defense.
The head-to-head history really stood out to me in this one. Bradley and Indiana State have now combined for 147 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings. That makes for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 150-point total.
They played three times last year and went for 141, 145 and 119 combined points, so they are very familiar with one another. Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-02-23||Oklahoma State v. Texas OVER 55||Top||21-49||Win||100||91 h 16 m||Show|
20* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/Texas OVER 55
Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team. They are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall with 48 or more combined points in all nine, and 58 or more combined points in six of those. So this total of 55 is pretty low for a game involving the Cowboys.
Oklahoma State has really turned up its offense in Big 12 play. The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in eight of their nine Big 12 games. They average 33.4 points per game, 471.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season. Those numbers would be even better if they even showed up against UCF after beating Oklahoma in a game they were held to just 3 points in. But they have not been good defensively, allowing 29.7 points per game, 446.3 yards per game and 6.5 per play in Big 12 action this season.
The Texas Longhorns have scored at least 26 points in every game this season and average 35.4 points per game, 478.0 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play in Big 12 play. Those numbers would be even better if they didn't lose QB Quinn Ewers for 2.5 games against Houston, BYU and Kansas State.
Each of the last five meetings between Oklahoma State and Texas have seen 56 or more combined points. They have gone for 75, 56, 75, 66 and 73 combined points in the last five meetings. As you can see, these games are sailing well OVER this 55-point total, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER. Conditions will be perfect for a shootout too inside the dome at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-02-23||Oklahoma State +15 v. Texas||Top||21-49||Loss||-110||91 h 16 m||Show|
20* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +15
Oklahoma State is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall and earned its way into the Big 12 Championship. They are playing on house money now and would love nothing more than to ruin Texas' final season in the Big 12. They pretty much ruined it for Oklahoma by upsetting them, and now they take their shot at the Longhorns.
This turnaround started with continuity at QB with Alan Bowman and the emergence of RB Ollie Gordon, who has rushed for 1,580 yards and 20 TD while averaging 6.4 per carry this season. Oklahoma State has really turned up its offense in Big 12 play. The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in eight of their nine Big 12 games. They average 33.4 points per game, 471-7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season. Those numbers would be even better if they even showed up against UCF after beating Oklahoma in a game they were held to just 3 points in. That letdown was expected.
But the Cowboys have bounced back nicely since and handled their business with a 43-30 road win as 7-point favorites at Houston with 514 total yards and a 40-34 (OT) win over BYU in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. They outgained BYU 503 to 327, or by 176 total yards. But BYU took advantage of some early turnovers and jumped out to a 24-6 lead. Oklahoma State could have folded, instead they fought back to take the lead with all the pressure on them of trying to win the game to get to the Big 12 title game. They fell behind in the 1st OT, but then scored two touchdowns in a row to come up clutch and the defense held in the 2nd OT. They have to be feeling like they can overcome anything after that comeback, which has been the story of their season.
Texas is overvalued off the blowout win over Texas Tech last week. But nothing has come easy for the Longhorns outside of that home win plus another home win over BYU down the stretch. In fact, five of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or less, and if not for a blocked PAT returned for a TD in the 10-point win over Iowa State, it would be five games decided by 7 points or fewer. That includes narrows road wins over Houston by 7 and TCU by 3, two of the worst teams in the Big 12. They have been great at home but it has been a different story on the road, and this game will be played on a neutral at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
Each of the last six meetings between Texas and Oklahoma State have been decided by 8 points or less. In fact, Oklahoma State is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings as underdogs with three outright upsets. Texas hasn't beaten Oklahoma State by more than 7 points in any of the last eight meetings, making for an 8-0 system backing the Cowboys pertaining to this inflated 15-point spread.
Speaking of 8-0 systems, Oklahoma State is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17-plus points per game on the season and actually outscoring these teams by 4.4 points per game on average. Mike Gundy has a way of getting his teams to play up to their level of their competition. The Longhorns have all the pressure on them here of trying to win the Big 12 and make the four-team playoff. I'll gladly side with the Cowboys playing with nothing to lose. Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.
|12-01-23||Purdue v. Northwestern UNDER 138||88-92||Loss||-110||20 h 33 m||Show|
15* Purdue/Northwestern Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 138
Northwestern is a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank 357th out of 363 teams in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo playing at home tonight, which will be played at a snail's pace against Purdue. Northwestern and their opponents have combined for 137 or fewer points in five of their six games this season.
Purdue has played a little faster this season but their offense still runs through big man Zach Edey. It also helps that the Boilermakers are vastly improved defensively this season ranking 5th in the country in adjusted defense. Nothing will come easy for Northwestern in this one.
Purdue and Northwestern have combined for 145 or fewer points in 16 consecutive meetings. Northwestern is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 home games with a total set of 130 to 139.5. Purdue is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight road games after three straight games forcing 11 or fewer turnovers. The Boilermakers are 68-37 UNDER in their last 105 road games with a total set of 130 to 139.5. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-01-23||Spurs v. Pelicans OVER 232.5||Top||106-121||Loss||-110||19 h 23 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Pelicans OVER 232.5
The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthy and are humming on offense right now. They have scored at least 115 points in eight of their last 10 games overall. They rank 9th in pace this season and like to get up and down.
Now they face another team that likes to get up and down in the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs rank 4th in pace and 27th in defensive rating. They are a dead nuts OVER team as a result. They just combined for 292 points with the Hawks last night in a 147-145 loss. Now they will be on tired legs and won't be playing much defense tonight.
The OVER is 13-5 in Spurs' 18 games this season. The OVER is 15-4 in Spurs last 19 games vs. division opponents. San Antonio is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games vs. a marginal winning team (51-60%). Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|12-01-23||Wizards +11.5 v. Magic||Top||125-130||Win||100||18 h 17 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +11.5
The Orlando Magic have been the most profitable team to back in the NBA this season at 13-5 SU & 15-3 ATS. But with that fast start comes lofty expectations that are going to be tough to live up to in the immediate future. It's time to 'sell high' on the Magic tonight.
If the Magic were going to have a letdown, it would be tonight. That's because they just beat this same Washington Wizards team 139-120 as 9.5-point home favorites on Wednesday. How motivated are they going to be to beat this same team again? The answer is not very.
The Wizards will be the more motivated team here for revenge. The Magic aren't going to shoot as well as they did in that first meeting. They shot 60.7% from the floor and an unsustainable 17-of-27 (63%) from 3-point range.
The Wizards have been more competitive on the road than they have been at home this season. In their six road games prior to losing to the Magic, they went 5-1 ATS upsetting Detroit by 19 as 3-point road dogs, only losing by 3 at Milwaukee as 14-point dogs, only losing by 3 at Charlotte as 4-point dogs, only losing by 4 at Toronto as 8-point dogs, only losing by 8 at Brooklyn as 7-point dogs and upsetting Charlotte by 16 as 2.5-point dogs. So the 19-point loss at Orlando was the aberration, and it was only due to the Magic shooting an unsustainable percentage.
Plays on any team (Washington) - off a blowout loss by 15 points or more against an opponent that is off two straight games where both teams scored 115 or more are 55-18 (75.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Wizards Friday.
|12-01-23||New Mexico State +10.5 v. Liberty||Top||35-49||Loss||-110||74 h 16 m||Show|
20* New Mexico State/Liberty C-USA Championship No-Brainer on New Mexico State +10.5
The New Mexico State Aggies are 9-1 SU & 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Hawaii. They have pulled off five outright upsets as underdogs during this stretch, including a 31-10 win at Auburn as 25-point dogs. They avoided the letdown last week and beat Jacksonville State 20-17 as 2.5-point home dogs, which was just as impressive.
Now the Aggies are once again catching too many points against Liberty. They are a completely different team than the one that lost 33-17 at Liberty as 9-point dogs in their first meeting this season. That was a 23-17 game at halftime and got out of hand after intermission. Liberty controlled the ball with 38 minutes compared to 22 for New Mexico State and ran 27 more plays. It was actually pretty close from a yards per play perspective. Liberty averaged 6.8 yards per play in that game while New Mexico State averaged 6.8 yards per play as well.
Diego Pavia is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He is completing 61.2% of his passes with a 23-to-8 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 806 yards and 5 scores on 5.3 per carry. Pavia gives them a chance to win every game he plays in, and he and the Aggies here are a dangerous, revenge-minded team in this game. Liberty has all the pressure on them trying to cap off an unbeaten season and possibly a New Year's 6 Bowl. New Mexico State is playing on house money.
I think the Aggies can make the adjustments to stop the run this time around by stacking the box. New Mexico State's defensive line has played much better down the stretch. They allow 127 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry on the season. They held Auburn to 65 rushing yards on 28 attempts and Jacksonville State to 85 rushing yards on 28 attempts in their last two games. That's really impressive when you consider Jacksonville State ranks 3rd in the country averaging 231.8 rushing yards per game and Auburn ranks 15th at 196.3 rushing yards per game. It's safe to say the Aggies are ready to stop the run. Bet New Mexico State Friday.
|12-01-23||Maryland v. Indiana UNDER 137.5||53-65||Win||100||18 h 41 m||Show|
15* Maryland/Indiana Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 137.5
I like looking to back the UNDER in these Big Ten games. Maryland is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 268th in the country in adjusted tempo, 125th in adjusted offense and 22nd in adjusted defense. Against the three respectable teams Maryland has played, they combined for 97 points with Villanova, 129 with UAB and 125 with Davidson.
Indiana doesn't exactly look to push the tempo too much ranking 135th in that department while ranking 76th in adjusted defense. The Hoosiers could be without their best guard in Xavier Johnson (10.5 PPG), who suffered a hamstring injury against Harvard on November 26th and did not return after playing just 13 minutes. We've seen Indiana go for 140 or fewer combined points in four of their six games this season, and 136 or fewer in three of them.
This has been an UNDER series. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 130, 121, 138, 123 and 118 combined points. They have averaged just 126 combined points per game in those five games, which is 11.5-point less than this 137.5-point total. There's clearly value with the UNDER.
Maryland is 28-14 UNDER in all games over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 10-2 in Maryland's last 12 road games. The UNDER is 9-1 in Maryland's last 10 road games after covering the spread in two of thier last three games. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-30-23||Seahawks v. Cowboys -7||Top||35-41||Loss||-110||95 h 13 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Dallas -7
FREE TEASERS: I am doing every combination of teasers with the Jaguars, Cowboys and Dolphins this week getting them all below -3 using 6 and 6.5-point teasers.
The Dallas Cowboys are bullies. They beat up on bad teams and cannot seem to get over the hump against good teams. While the Seattle Seahawks are 6-5 this season and some would consider them a good team, I consider them a bad team in their current form and another team that the Cowboys are going to beat up on.
The Cowboys are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS this season with a ridiculous seven wins by 20 points or more. That includes 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season where they are scoring 41.0 points per game and allowing just 12.0 points per game, outscoring opponents by 29.0 points per game.
The Cowboys just blasted the Commanders 45-10 on Thanksgiving Night while the Seahawks were losing 31-13 at home to the 49ers despite getting a Pick 6 in that game for their lone touchdown. Their offense didn't score and has been broken the last two weeks, also managing just 16 points in a loss to the Rams. They have a recent common opponent in the Commanders. While the Cowboys won by 35, the Seahawks needed a last-second FG to beat Washington three weeks ago.
The Cowboys won't be taking the Seahawks lightly because they know there's a good chance that if they win this game and the Eagles lose to the 49ers this week, they'll be playing the Eagles for first place in the NFC East next week. The Seahawks have struggled when they have stepped up in class recently with a 37-3 loss at Baltimore and that 31-13 loss to San Francisco. Dallas is just a notch below those two teams, but it's close.
Geno Smith isn't healthy and is a below average QB as it is, and he and the Seahawks will get exposed again this week. Smith averages under 4 yards per attempt against man-to-man defense and over 8 yards per attempt against zone this season. Dallas runs as much man-to-man defense as any team in the NFL.
Dallas is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Dak Prescott is 30-11-1 ATS in his last 42 starts as a favorite of 6 points or more. The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a division game, so they don't let down in these spots. Seattle is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the second half of the season. Bet the Cowboys Thursday.
|11-30-23||Jazz v. Wolves UNDER 222||90-101||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Timberwolves UNDER 222
This matchup between Utah and Minnesota tonight will be played without the best offensive player for both teams. Utah leading scorer Lauri Markkanen (23.7 PPG) and Minnesota leading scorer Anthony Edwards (26.2 PPG) are both expected to miss this game.
Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is even when Edwards was healthy. They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating and play at a slower tempo. They rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating even with Edwards. Having the twin towers of Gobert and Towns plus a defensive-minded PG in Mike Conley Jr. make them a dead nuts UNDER team.
The Timberwolves have remarkably held four of their last five opponents to 103 points or fewer, which is a great feat in today's NBA. Now they face a Jazz team that has really been struggling offensively without Markkanen, scoring 105 points or fewer in four of their last five games.
The Jazz are 5-0 UNDER in their last five games overall. Minnesota beat Utah 123-95 for just 218 combined points in their first meeting this season back on November 4th. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-30-23||Pacers v. Heat OVER 237.5||Top||132-142||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Heat OVER 237.5
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 14-2 OVER in all games this season. They are scoring 127.6 points per game and allowing 124.7 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.
The Miami Heat just played another dead nuts over team in the Milwaukee Bucks last time out and the result was a 131-124 shootout loss and 255 combined points. It will be more of the same against the Indiana Pacers tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-30-23||Blazers +12 v. Cavs||103-95||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +12
The Portland Trail Blazers got two key guards back from injury in Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson. It's no surprise to me that they have been playing well since, and they have been an undervalued commodity in recent games due to their poor start to the season with all these injuries.
Indeed, the Blazers have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They beat Utah 121-105 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 102-108 at Milwaukee as 13-point dogs after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead, and won outright at Indiana 114-110 as 12-point dogs. Now they are once again catching too many points against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.
The Cavaliers are coming off a 23-point win over the Hawks which has them overvalued. They lost by 33 at home to Miami, were upset by 6 at home by the Lakers and only beat the Raptors by 3 at home in their previous three games. It's not like they are playing well enough right now to warrant being 12-point favorites here. Bet the Blazers Thursday.
|11-30-23||Texas Tech v. Butler -2.5||95-103||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -2.5
The Butler Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS this season despite facing a very tough schedule. Their two losses came against two of the best teams in the country in Michigan State and Florida Atlantic on the road. They only lost to FAU by 5 as 5.5-point dogs, and FAU has been blasting everyone else.
Butler handled Penn State 88-78 as a PK on a neutral and Boise State 70-56 as 1.5-point dogs on a neutral in the two games following those two losses to MSU and FAU. Now they get a Texas Tech team that looks down this season based on results.
Texas Tech is 5-1 SU but 2-4 ATS in its six games this season. The Red Raiders only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 9 as 24.5-point home favorites. They lost by 16 to Villanova on a neutral as 3.5-point dogs, and that's a Villanova team that has already been upset twice as double-digit home favorites this season. They only beat a bad Northern Iowa team by 2 as 7-point favorites on a neutral as well.
Texas Tech is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games vs. Big East opponents. Butler is 7-0 ATS in its last seven November home games. Bet Butler Thursday.
|11-29-23||Clippers -125 v. Kings||Top||131-117||Win||100||13 h 38 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Kings NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML -125
I had the Kings on the Money Line last night and was fortunate to cash that ticket. The Kings came back from 24 points down to the Warriors to win 124-123. They put everything they had into that comeback, and now they won't have anything left in the tank for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.
It is also a letdown spot for the Kings after finally beating their hated rivals in the Warriors after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them in seven games last season, and losing the first two meetings this season to the Warriors. They wanted that win more than anything, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Clippers tonight.
The Clippers will be extra motivated to bounce back from a bad loss to the Nuggets who didn't have Nikola Jokic. They simply thought they could show up and win that game. The Clippers had been playing well previously going 4-1 SU in their previous five games. They will be focused for this one, and they are healthy for pretty much the first time this season right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.
Plays against home underdogs (Sacramento) - off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 45-20 (69.2%) ATS since 1996. Plays on road favorites on the money line (LA Clippers) - off an upset loss a a home favorite against an opponent that is off a home win where they scored 110 points or more are 61-20 (75.3%, +31.4 Units) since 1996. Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Wednesday.
|11-29-23||Colorado v. Colorado State -2.5||83-88||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
15* Colorado/Colorado State Rivalry ANNIHILATOR on Colorado State -2.5
Colorado State is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and currently 27th in KenPom as one of the best mid-major teams in the country. All six wins this season have come by 8 points or more, with none being more impressive than their 69-48 win as 9-point dogs on a neutral to Creighton last time out.
Normally this would be a letdown spot for the Rams, but that's simply not the case with hated in-state rival Colorado coming to town. The Rams have lost three consecutive meetings with the Buffaloes including a blowout road loss last season. They want revenge, and they will get it tonight. Colorado State has played the much tougher schedule (129th) than Colorado (251st) as well.
Colorado is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall with some concerning results. The Buffaloes only beat Richmond by 5 as 9-point favorites on a neutral, lost outright to Florida State by 6 as 6-point favorites, and failed to cover against a rebuilding Iona team in a 17-point home win as 19-point favorites. Their other three wins all came at home against bad teams in Towson, Grambling and Milwaukee. This will be their first true road game of the season.
Colorado is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 non-conference games. The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after a win by 10 points or more. Colorado has been one of the worst road teams in the country for several years running. Bet Colorado State Wednesday.
|11-29-23||Bradley -3.5 v. Murray State||Top||72-79||Loss||-110||10 h 33 m||Show|
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -3.5
The Bradley Braves are 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS this season despite facing a tough schedule that ranks 149th in the country. They have beaten the likes of Utah State (61st in KenPom), Tulane (99th), Vermont (119th) and UAB (127th). All six wins have come against teams that rank in the Top 166.
Murray State is 2-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season despite facing the 295th-ranked schedule in the country. They lost to Western Kentucky by 5 as 1-point home favorites, UNC Wilmington as 5.5-point dogs on a neutral, by 10 to Appalachian State by 2.5-point dogs on a neutral and only beat Tennessee Tech by 6 as 12.5-point home favorites in their lone win against a Division 1 team.
Steve Prohm is one of my favorite head coaches to fade, while Brian Wardle is one of my favorite head coaches to back. Prohm is 0-6 ATS in home games following a non-conference game as the coach of Murray State.
Bradley is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite. The Braves are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a bad team that wins 20-40% of their games. This is an absolute mismatch and the Braves should be bigger favorites tonight. Bet Bradley Wednesday.
|11-29-23||Suns -2.5 v. Raptors||105-112||Loss||-115||10 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix Suns -2.5
The Phoenix Suns are rolling right now going 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall with all seven wins coming by 3 points or more. Devin Booker is playing at an MVP level, and there's a good chance they get Kevin Durant back from injury tonight.
The Suns come in on two days' rest and will be the fresher team, which is the biggest reason for this play. The Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 103-115 loss in Brooklyn last night. The Raptors will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days in their 5th different city. They will have nothing left in the tank for the Suns tonight. Bet the Suns Wednesday.
|11-29-23||Cal-Irvine +6 v. Duquesne||62-66||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on UC-Irvine +6
UC-Irvine is 6-1 this season and ranked 63rd in KenPom as one of the better mid-major programs in the country. The Anteaters have been very impressive during their current six-game winning streak where they have also gone 5-0 ATS.
They beat USC outright 70-60 as 12.5-point road dogs. They beat Pepperdine by 16 as 5.5-point favorites on a neutral. They beat Toledo by 6 as 1.5-point favorites on a neutral. And they backed it up with a 15-point win over Rice as 8-point favorites on a neutral. Now they are catching 6 points on the road against Duquesne when this line should be much closer to a PK.
Duquesne is 4-2 this season with a win over Cleveland State by 1 as 10-point home favorites, an outright home loss to Princeton as 5.5-point favorites, and a 10-point loss at Nebraska as 6-point dogs. Irvine has played the 68th-ranked schedule in the country while Duquesne has played the 207th.
Irvine is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 November games. Duquesne is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers. Irvine is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game. The Dukes are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. good shooting teams making 48% or better on the season. Bet UC-Irvine Wednesday.
|11-28-23||Warriors v. Kings -119||Top||123-124||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML -119
This is the ultimate revenge spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight. They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Warriors in seven games last season. They are already 0-2 against the Warriors this season, though their 1-point loss at Golden State on November 1st came without De'Aaron Fox. It's safe to say the Kings are going to be max motivated for revenge at home tonight, and I expect them to get the job done.
The Warriors are 2-7 SU in their last nine games overall. They do get Draymond Green back, but I don't think it's going to matter. The Kings will simply want this one more. The Warriors are 19-36 ATS in their last 55 road games dating back to last season. Golden State is 2-10 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. Bet the Kings on the Money Line Tuesday.
|11-28-23||Rockets +4.5 v. Mavs||115-121||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5
The Houston Rockets are the most undervalued team in the NBA right now. They have gone 8-3 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Their only three losses came on the road by 6 at the Clippers, by 1 at the Lakers and by 5 at the Warriors. They have beaten the Nuggets twice, the Lakers and the Kings twice during this run.
The Rockets play team basketball without the superstar names. That's what makes them such an undervalued commodity. The Mavericks have the big names in Doncic and Irving, but not much help outside of them. And Doncic has a banged up thumb right now that he is expected to play through tonight.
The Mavericks are 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming over the lowly Wizards and the Lakers by 3 who were tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. They lost by 21 at the Pelicans, by 7 at the Bucks, by 16 at home against the Kings and by 19 at the Clippers. They aren't playing well at all right now and don't warrant being 4.5-point favorites here.
Dallas is 24-40 ATS in its last 64 games as a favorite. Bet the Rockets Tuesday.
|11-28-23||Thunder +3.5 v. Wolves||103-106||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder want revenge from a 120-95 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the play-in round of the playoffs last year that ended their season. This is their first shot at revenge this season, and I expect them to make the most of it tonight.
The Thunder are fully healthy right now and are a dangerous team when that's the case. They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only loss coming by 4 points to the Philadelphia 76ers, who are one of the best teams in the NBA this season. Five of their six wins came by double-digits while the other was a 7-point win at Golden State.
The spot really favors the Thunder not only because of the revenge factor, but also because they are the more rested team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight. The Thunder are 12-4 ATS in all games this season and have been covering machines over the last three seasons. Oklahoma City is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better. Bet the Thunder Tuesday.
|11-28-23||Bulls +14 v. Celtics||Top||97-124||Loss||-110||9 h 0 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +14
The Boston Celtics are getting too much respect from the books tonight as massive 14-point favorites over the Chicago Bulls. That's especially the case considering the Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight with starting PG Jrue Holiday questionable as well.
The Bulls are undervalued right now after a 5-13 SU & 5-12-1 ATS start this season and this is a good 'buy low' spot on them. They always seem to play the Celtics tough, and there's no doubt they will be up for this game tonight.
Indeed, the Bulls are 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Celtics with five outright wins as underdogs. Three of their four losses straight up have come by 8 points or less. They will stay within this inflated number again and keep their series dominance going in this head-to-head matchup. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.
|11-28-23||Miami-FL +7.5 v. Kentucky||Top||73-95||Loss||-115||8 h 27 m||Show|
20* Miami/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +7.5
The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team. All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 18.0 points, Norchad Omier averaging 15.8 points and a team-high 9.2 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 16.0 points and 4.0 assists.
Bensley Joseph (11.6 PPG, 4.2 APG, 2.4 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and is a swiss army knife, doing a little bit of everything for this team. Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 16.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists. This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.
Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and then easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites. They had a letdown against FIU in a non-cover in a 86-80 win, likely looking ahead to the Bahamas Championship Tournament. But they got back to their covering ways, beating Georgia 79-67 as 8-point favorites and topping Kansas State 91-83 as 3-point favorites. Now I expect the Hurricanes to give Kentucky a run for its money tonight.
Kentucky lost 89-84 to Kansas as 7-point underdogs on a neutral in its lone game against a decent opponent this season. They failed to cover as massive home favorites against Texas A&M Community College, Stonehill and St. Joseph's while also beating up on bad New Mexico State and Marshall teams. They needed OT to beat St. Joe's as a 15-point home favorite just two games ago. They are missing some key 7-footers inside right now and are all guard-oriented, which makes this a great matchup for Miami, which has some of the best guards in the country plus Omier inside.
Kentucky is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game. Miami is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog or PK. The Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better. The Hurricanes are a veteran team that relishes these challenges on the road in hostile environments. Bet Miami Tuesday.
|11-27-23||Pelicans v. Jazz UNDER 231||112-114||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Pelicans/Jazz UNDER 231
Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. The Pelicans and Jazz will be meeting in Utah for the 2nd time in 3 days. The Jazz won 105-100 for just 205 combined points in that first meeting with a total set of 227. Now the total is set at 231 and the books are making a mistake not listing this total much lower tonight.
While the Pelicans are without CJ McCollum, the Jazz could be without both Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen again tonight after they both sat out their last game. Those are their two best offensive weapons, and even if they are without one it will hamper them a lot offensively.
New Orleans is 46-25 UNDER in its last 71 games vs. teams with a losing record, including 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games vs. terrible teams that are outscored by 6-plus points per game. Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (New Orleans) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51-60%) playing a losing team are 41-14 (74.5%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-27-23||Bears +3.5 v. Vikings||Top||12-10||Win||100||119 h 5 m||Show|
20* Bears/Vikings ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +3.5
The Chicago Bears just got Justin Fields back last week and he makes all the difference for them. They blew a double-digit lead in the final four minutes to the Lions in a 26-31 defeat as 8-point underdogs on the road. The fact that they took the Lions to the wire says all you need to know about this team's potential.
Fields went 16-of-23 passing for 169 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 104 yards on 18 attempts. He is so dynamic with his ability to run, and he has formed a great chemistry with DJ Moore on the outside. The Bears will have no problem getting back up off the mat from that tough loss to the Lions considering this is a Monday Night Football game on National TV against another division opponnent in the Bears.
But the biggest reason the Bears are undervalued right now is their improvement on defense over the last several weeks. They have held four of their last seven opponents to 20 points or fewer. They are allowing just 276.5 yards per game in their last six games, which would rate as one of the top defenses in the entire NFL.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Vikings. They just had their 5-game winning streak come to an end with a 1-point loss at Denver. It's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice because they controlled the game most the way but blew it late. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, so you are definitely paying a tax on them now.
The Bears want revenge from a 19-13 home loss to the Vikings on October 15th in their first meeting this season. Fields got injured in that game which made all the difference. The Bears held the Vikings to just 220 total yards and they still nearly pulled off the upset even with Tyson Bageant having to come in and turning it over three times.
The Bears are probably the healthiest team in the NFL right now with only four players on the injury report. I always look to back healthy teams late in the season and fade teams with a ton of injuries. It's rare for a team to be as healthy as the Bears are this late in the year. Bet the Bears Monday.
|11-27-23||Blazers v. Pacers OVER 241||Top||114-110||Loss||-110||19 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Pacers OVER 241
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 14-1 OVER in their 15 games this season. They are scoring 128.8 points per game and allowing 125.5 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.
The Blazers are not an over team, but the Pacers force teams to play at their pace, especially at home. Plus the Blazers just got both Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson back from injury and were missing those two key guards for a big chunk of this season. They now have the guards to get up and down with the Pacers. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-27-23||Lakers v. 76ers UNDER 231.5||94-138||Loss||-110||9 h 20 m||Show|
15* Lakers/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 231.5
The Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers are two of the rare teams in the NBA today that still prefer to run offense through their centers in Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis. As a result, they both play at slower tempos than average and I think this is a great UNDER bet in a game involving two of the best centers in the game.
These are also two of the better defensive teams in the NBA with the Lakers ranking 9th and the 76ers 13th in defensive rating. The Lakers are just 24th in offensive rating and dealing with a bunch of injuries. LeBron James is questionable, Gabe Vincent is out, Cam Reddish is questionable and Rui Hachimura is out.
Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Philadelphia) - off a road win, a good team (60-75%) playing a team with a winning record are 75-35 (68.2%) since 1996. The Lakers and 76ers have combined for 227 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-27-23||Oakland +15.5 v. Xavier||78-76||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland +15.5
What more does Oakland have to do to get some respect from the books? Oakland is 3-3 SU & 6-0 ATS this season against a brutal schedule being listed as underdogs in all six games. They upset Loyola-Marymount 74-69 as 6-point dogs, upset Marshall 78-71 as 2.5-point dogs and crushed Bowling Green 81-62 as 2.5-point favorites.
But more impressive than the wins are actually the three losses. Oakland only lost 79-73 at Ohio State as 19.5-point underdogs, lost 53-64 as 24-point dogs at Illinois and lost 85-77 as 9-point dogs on a neutral to Drake. If they can hang with those three teams, they can certainly hang with Xavier.
Xavier already has two losses this season to Purdue by 12 and to Washington by 3. Three of the four wins were against bottom feeders in Robert Morris (by 4), Jacksonville and Bryant. And now Xavier has a massive game with No. 6 ranked Houston on deck and could easily be looking ahead to that game and overlooking Oakland. Bet Oakland Monday.
|11-26-23||Ravens -4 v. Chargers||Top||20-10||Win||100||168 h 45 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore -4
The Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the NFL if it's not the San Francisco 49ers. Both have the most elite numbers in the NFL right now. The Ravens' last seven losses with Lamar Jackson at QB they had a 4th quarter lead and were 75% or better to win the game. They could be on a crazy unbeaten streak if not for some bad variance late in games.
The down to down success is the most predictable, and the Ravens are thriving this season. They average 27.6 points per game, 366.5 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play while allowing just 16.1 points per game, 273.5 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. They are outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game and outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play this season.
The Chargers have a decent offense with Justin Herbert, but he is missing several key weapons and drops have been an issue for his receivers. Herbert is forced every week to try and win shootouts because the defense just cannot get stops. The Chargers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing 23.8 points per game, 393.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They rank 31st in the NFL in total defense and 29th in yards per play allowed.
We've seen what the Chargers are defensively when they face a legit offense, like two weeks ago when they allowed 41 points and 533 total yards to the Lions. The Ravens beat the Lions 38-6 earlier this season. Even last week the Chargers allowed the Packers to have a break out offensive performance with 397 total yards against them. The Packers were a previously dead offense but got right against the Chargers.
The Ravens can name their number against this pitiful Chargers defense. They are even worse off now after losing arguably their most important defensive player in Joey Bosa to a foot injury against the Packers. He is doubtful to play this week. The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in five consecutive games now, and if they get to 31 here they are going to cover this 4-point spread. They are going to get to 31 if not more.
The Chargers have zero home-field advantage and there will likely be more Ravens fans attending this game than Chargers fans. The Ravens also have the rest advantage after playing the Bengals on Thursday, so they have three extra days to rest and prepare for the Chargers. John Harbaugh is 9-2 ATS in road games vs. a marginal losing team that wins 40-49% of their games as the coach of Baltimore. Bet the Ravens Sunday night.
|11-26-23||Wolves v. Grizzlies UNDER 218.5||119-97||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 218.5
Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies rank in the bottom half of the league in pace. The Grizzlies rank 28th in offensive rating while the Timberwolves rank 3rd in defensive rating. The Grizzlies always get after it defensively, but with all their injuries right now points have been very hard to come by for them.
The Grizzlies were held to 91 points by the Rockets and 89 points by the Suns in their last two games. I think the Timberwolves will hold them below 100 today, which will aid us in cashing this UNDER 218.5 ticket.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last five meetings with 220 or fewer combined points in five of those six, and 217 or fewer in three of the last four. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|11-26-23||Wolves -6.5 v. Grizzlies||119-97||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5
The Memphis Grizzlies rank 28th in offensive rating while the Minnesota Timberwolves rank 3rd in defensive rating. With all the injuries the Grizzlies are dealing with right now, points have been very hard to come by for them. The Grizzlies were held to 100 points by the Celtics, 91 points by the Rockets and 89 points by the Suns in their last three games to fall to 3-12 SU & 5-10 ATS this season.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are 11-4 SU & 8-5-2 ATS this season and have been one of the more undervalued teams in the NBA. But they are coming off a bad home loss to the Kings, which will have them refocused and not taking the Grizzlies lightly today.
Memphis is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 games as an underdog. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.
|11-26-23||Blazers +13 v. Bucks||Top||102-108||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +13
Giannis, Brook Lopez and Damian Lillard combined for 101 points last game and the Bucks still were life and death with one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Washington Wizards in a 131-128 win as 13.5-point home favorites. They lost Kris Middleton to an Achilles injury in that game and he won't play today. They will be life and death with the Blazers again today because they just don't have much help outside of those Big 3.
The Blazers are coming off a 121-105 upset win over the Jazz as 3-point home underdogs. They are getting healthier and playing better. Now they are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off. I expect the Blazers to give a big effort today in this sleepy afternoon game for the Bucks, who won't have their usual home-court advantage due to this early start time.
Plays against favorites (Milwaukee) - after two straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more against an opponent that scored 120 points or more last game are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Blazers Sunday.
|11-26-23||Monmouth +6 v. Pennsylvania||Top||61-76||Loss||-110||4 h 54 m||Show|
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Monmouth +6
Monmouth has been undervalued this season at 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS and the Hawks continue to be undervalued here as 6-point underdogs to the Penn Quakers. Monmouth won outright as a 14.5-point dog at West Virginia earlier this season.
These teams have two common opponents the last two days, and it's easy to see Monmouth is the better team when looking at this results. Monmouth beat Belmont 93-84 and beat Lafayette 63-53. Penn only beat Lafayette 74-72 and lost outright to Belmont 84-79.
But the kicker here is that Penn went to OT against Belmont yesterday and will be the more tired team as a result. Their three best players played 43, 36 and 35 minutes in that OT loss and won't have much left in the tank for Monmouth, which was able to rest its starters late yesterday due to the blowout nature of their game against Lafayette. Nobody played more than 29 minutes for them yesterday.
Monmouth is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after allowing 60 points or less. Penn is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 home games after a loss by 6 points or less. Plays on road teams (Monmouth) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in non-conference games between two teams from mid-major conferences are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Monmouth Sunday.
|11-26-23||Jaguars v. Texans OVER 45.5||Top||24-21||Loss||-110||161 h 55 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Texans OVER 45.5
The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team. CJ Stroud is one of the best rookie QB's we've ever seen and he's living up to it week after week. Let's look at their last three weeks. They scored 39 points and had 496 total yards against the Bucs, scored 30 points and had 544 total yards against the Bengals and then they had 419 total yards against the Cardinals last week and would have scored more if not for 3 INT from Stroud inside the Arizona 25-yard line.
But because that game stayed under the total against the Cardinals when it should have gone way over after 31 combined points at halftime, we are getting great value with the OVER this week against the Jaguars. Not one of those passes by Stroud that were intercepted were bad throws, they were mostly just bad breaks off receivers' hands. He had only thrown 2 INT all season up to that point. RB Devin Singletary has rushed for over 100 yards in consecutive games for the first time in his career. This Houston offense is humming.
The Jaguars just put together their best offensive performance of the season last week against a very good Tennessee defense. They had 34 points and 389 total yards as Trevor Lawrence totaled four touchdowns passing and rushing. The Jaguars are primed for one of their best offensive outputs of the season against a Houston defense that gave up 37 points to a bad Bucs offense and 27 points to the Bengals. The Texans are pretty banged up defensively right now.
In their first meeting this season. Houston beat Jacksonville 37-17 for 54 combined points that easily topped this 45.5-point total. The Texans had 366 total yards and took their foot off the gas in the 2H with it wrapped up. The Jaguars had 404 total yards and deserved to score more than they did. They will have similar success moving the football in the rematch.
Doug Pederson is 9-1 OVER in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach. I love the OVER in this matchup of two teams that are hitting their stride on offense right now. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-26-23||Bucs v. Colts -120||Top||20-27||Win||100||161 h 39 m||Show|
25* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -120
I love the spot for the Indianapolis Colts. They are coming off their bye week following a win over the Patriots in Germany that got them to 5-5 on the season and very much in the playoff hunt. They will come out of the bye rested, ready to go and highly motivated to make the playoffs.
Bye weeks are even more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Shane Steichen. The players on this team love this guy because he is a great offensive mind, and I expect the Colts to have plenty of new wrinkles to unleash on the Tampa Bay Bucs this week.
The Bucs had their bye back on October 8th and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week. They are starting to run out of gas and the injuries are starting to pile up. They lost 27-14 at San Francisco last week and now have a lot of traveling to do prior to facing the Colts. They travel from San Francisco back to Tampa and then up to Indianapolis. They won't be nearly as prepared as the Colts for this one.
The injuries are really piling up on defense for the Bucs. They lost three starters that exited the game against the 49ers and didn't return last week. That includes LB Lavonte David, CB Jamel Dean and CB Carlton Davis III. The Colts should feast on this short-handed defense similar to what CJ Stroud and the Texans did to them and Brock Purdy did to them. Purdy went 21-of-25 passing for 305 yards while Stroud went 30-of-42 passing for 443 yards on the Bucs.
The Colts have gotten healthier on defense and are playing better holding their last two opponents to an average 9.5 points per game. They should be even healthier coming out of the bye. Now they get to face one of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Bucs, who are scoring 19.2 points per game, averaging 304.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. The Bucs rank 23rd in scoring, 22nd in total offense and 22nd in yards per play. They allow 6.0 yards per play on defense, so they are getting outgained by 0.9 yards per play and legitimately one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Colts are undervalued right now because nobody believes they deserve to be 5-5 and .500 on the season. But the numbers clearly tell a different story. The Colts average 5.4 yards per play on offense and 5.4 yards per play on defense, breaking dead even in yards per play margin. YPP is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is, and the Colts have been 0.9 YPP better than the Bucs this season. We're getting the better team in the much better stop off the bye as basically a PK at home. Sign me up. Bet the Colts on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-25-23||Iowa State +10 v. Kansas State||42-35||Win||100||92 h 31 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa State +10
As of this writing, Kansas State is still alive for a Big 12 Championship. But by the time this game kicks off at 8:00 EST Saturday night, the Wildcats will realize they have been eliminated. They are tied with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma for 2nd place in the Big 12. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma both hold tiebreakers over Kansas State.
Oklahoma hosts TCU on Friday and is a double-digit favorite. Oklahoma State hosts BYU earlier Saturday afternoon and is a 17-point favorite. Both of those teams aren't going to lose, which is what it would take for Kansas State to still be alive by the time this game kicks off. I don't think we get a fully focused Kansas State team as a result, and I think they'll let Iowa State hang around.
The Cyclones are good enough to hang around, anyway. They are 6-5 this season with four of their five losses coming by 10 points or less. It should be four one-score losses but they had a PAT blocked and returned for 2 by Texas last week that turned a 7-point loss into a 10-point loss. I'm still bitter about it because I had Iowa State and they should have covered.
But that loss to Texas provides us extra line value on the Cyclones this week. They are a double-digit dog for only the 2nd time all season with the other coming at Oklahoma. I like how this team is playing down the stretch going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last four games overall with all four wins coming by double-digits, and both losses going down to the wire to Kansas and Texas.
Kansas State was lucky to beat Kansas and their 3rd-string QB last week. They were outgained 396 to 356 by the Jayhawks, or by 40 yards. They gave up 234 rushing yards to Kansas and Iowa State will have success on the ground here, which will open up things for QB Rocco Becht.
The Cyclones want revenge from a 10-9 home loss to Kansas State last year. The Wildcats got one big play and that was it. Kansas State cannot seem to get margin on Iowa State. In fact, the Wildcats haven't won any of their last nine meetings with the Cyclones by more than 10 points. That makes for a 9-0 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 10-point spread. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|11-25-23||Clemson v. South Carolina +7||Top||16-7||Loss||-105||91 h 56 m||Show|
20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina +7
The South Carolina Gamecocks played the toughest schedule in the entire country through their first eight games and the result was a 2-6 start. They have finally gotten a break in the schedule and have made the most of it, winning their last three games to get within one win of bowl eligibility. Now they'll be highly motivated to finish the job here at home against Clemson and pull off the upset to get that coveted 6th victory.
Clemson has also handled its business here down the stretch going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. But all three of those games were at home. Now the Tigers have to hit the road where they have struggled this season. Clemson is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games with their lone win coming at Syracuse. They lost 28-7 to Duke, 28-20 to Miami and 24-17 at NC State in their other three road games.
South Carolina has played its best football at home. All five of their wins have come at home as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at Williams-Brice Stadium. Their lone loss came by 2 points to Florida. I fully expect if they lose this game it will not be by more than one score, so there's value with the Gamecocks catching more than a touchdown.
South Carolina pulled the 31-30 upset as 14-point road dogs at Clemson last season. Spencer Rattler threw for 360 yards in the win and will have another big game here. Clemson is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 7 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (South Carolina) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet South Carolina Saturday.
|11-25-23||Ohio State v. Santa Clara +7.5||86-56||Loss||-110||8 h 31 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Santa Clara +7.5
Santa Clara is absolutely legit this season. The Broncos are off to a 6-0 start this season with two upset wins over Pac-12 teams. They won 89-77 at Stanford as 7.5-point dogs and upset Oregon 88-82 as 5.5-point dogs on a neutral yesterday. I fully expect them to give Ohio State a run for their money tonight.
Ohio State has been very disappointing thus far. The Buckeyes are 4-1 SU but 1-3-1 ATS this season. They only beat Oakland by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites, lost to Texas A&M by 7 as 1.5-point home favorites, pushed in a 24-point win over Merrimack as 24-point favorites and failed to cover in a 17-point win over Western Michigan as 21.5-point home favorites. That's why their upset win over Alabama as 6.5-point dogs yesterday came out of nowhere. But now the Buckeyes are getting too much respect for that win, and this is now a letdown spot for them. Bet Santa Clara Saturday.
|11-25-23||Illinois-Chicago -1 v. George Washington||89-79||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Illinois-Chicago -1
Illinois-Chicago has been very impressive this season. The Flames are 4-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season. They only lost by 11 at Cincinnati as 15-point dogs, upset Loyola-Chicago 72-67 as 11.5-point road dogs and crushed Middle Tennessee 70-40 as 3.5-point dogs yesterday. They will still be fresh for this game today which gives them a big advantage over George Washington.
The Revolutionaries will not be fresh for this one. They just went to double-OT to beat Ohio 99-94 yesterday. Three starters played at least 40 minutes for George Washington yesterday. They won't have much left in the tank for the Flames tonight. Bet Illinois-Chicago Saturday.
|11-25-23||Heat v. Nets -3.5||Top||97-112||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets -3.5
I love the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight. They will be highly motivated for a victory coming off three consecutive losses. They are also motivated because one of those losses came 122-115 at Miami on November 14th.
The Nets also have a big rest advantage over the Heat tonight. The Nets come in on two days' rest and will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days. Meanwhile, the Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-100 loss at New York last night. This will also be the 9th game in 15 days for the Heat, which is about as tough as it gets in the NBA. Eight of those nine games were on the road so there has been a ton of travel involved.
Jimmy Butler played 36 minutes, Bam Adebaoy 34, Josh Richardson 34 and Kyle Lowry 33 last night. The Heat are already short-handed without Tyler Herro and likely without Duncan Robinson again tonight. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them sit Butler and/or Adebayo tonight given the tough rest spot.
Brooklyn is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when revenging a road loss. Miami is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Nets Saturday.
|11-25-23||Washington State +16.5 v. Washington||Top||21-24||Win||100||87 h 26 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington State +16.5
The whole world bet against Washington last week and lost with Oregon State. Now is the time to fade Washington after such a big win over the Beavers when everyone was picking against them. This is a flat spot for them off the Oregon State win and with Oregon on deck in the Pac-12 Championship since they already clinched.
At the very least, it's going to be tough for Washington to get margin and pull away from Washington State enough to cover this lofty 16.5-point spread. The Huskies haven't been getting margin on anyone of late. In fact, each of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or fewer. That includes games against Stanford (42-33) and Arizona State (15-7), two of the worst teams in the Pac-12.
This is the National Championship Game for Washington State. The Cougars will put everything into winning this game against their hated rivals. They come in with a ton of confidence after blasting Colorado 56-14 on Friday night last week, so they get an extra day to rest and prepare for this one.
Getting margin on the Cougars has been very difficult for their opponents. Despite their 5-6 record, the Cougars only have one loss by more than 14 points this season. They gave Oregon all they wanted in a 24-38 road loss as 19.5-point road underdogs, proving they can play with anyone as Oregon is looked at as the best team in the Pac-12. They know they can play with Washington, too.
The Cougars will never be out of this game with an offense that puts up 32.6 points per game, 6.0 yards per play and 338 passing yards per game and 8.1 per attempt. Washington has allowed over 300 passing yards on three occasions this season and allows 260 passing yards per game. They struggle to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Washington State QB Cam Ward will keep his team in this game for four quarters. He is completing 66.7% of his passes for 3,415 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for eight scores on the ground. Bet Washington State Saturday.
|11-25-23||Georgia State v. Old Dominion -2.5||24-25||Loss||-110||85 h 26 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Old Dominion -2.5
Old Dominion has battled to get to 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility. They just went on the road and upset Georgia Southern 20-17 as 5-point dogs last week. Now they are back home here with a chance to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility.
While the Monarchs will be max motivated to get this win and a bowl, Georgia State has questionable motivation at best. The Panthers had a promising start to the season at 6-1, but they have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS since and were non-competitive in all four games. They lost by 17 at Georgia Southern, by 28 at home to James Madison, by 28 at home to Appalachian State and by 42 at LSU. I think these players have quit on head coach Shawn Elliott. I don't think they show up at all here Saturday.
Old Dominion has played some of the best teams in the Sun Belt down to the wire. They only lost 30-27 at James Madison as 20-point dogs and upset Appalachian State 28-21 as 6-point home dogs. Appalachian State just beat James Madison last week. They can play with anyone in this conference, and they can certainly beat a middle-of-the-pack team here in Georgia State.
Georgia State needs to be able to run the football to be successful because they are a suspect passing team. Well, despite playing a brutal schedule, Old Dominion only allows 3.8 yards per carry this season. They are holding opponents to 0.7 per carry below their season averages. Georgia State has by far the worst defense in this matchup. They allow 6.5 yards per play on the season while Old Dominion only allows 5.5 yards per play. Georgia State is only slightly better than ODU on offense. The Monarchs should be favored by more because they are the better team, they're at home and they're the much more motivated team. Bet Old Dominion Saturday.
|11-25-23||Miami-OH v. Ball State +6.5||Top||17-15||Win||100||83 h 26 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State +6.5
The Ball State Cardinals have been grossly undervalued for weeks. They continue to play with pride despite being eliminated from bowl contention. They are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 7 to Toledo as 17.5-point dogs and by 3 to Bowling Green as 4.5-point dogs. They also upset Central Michigan 24-17 as 5.5-point dogs, upset Northern Illinois 20-17 as 9-point dogs and crushed Kent State 34-3 as 10-point favorites.
Now it's revenge time for the Cardinals. They were 5-6 last year and playing Miami Ohio with both at 5-6 and trying to get bowl eligible in the season finale. They blew a 14-3 halftime lead and lost 18-17 to the Redhawks last year. They have not forgotten, and they will get their revenge here with an outright victory, but we'll take the points for some insurance.
Miami Ohio is going to be flat as a pancake in this one. They already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game against Toledo. They could care less about winning this game. The priority is to stay healthy and fresh for that game against Toledo next week, not to beat Ball State.
Miami Ohio has been fortunate in close games and has taken advantage of a weak schedule. They have played the 129th-ranked schedule in the country while Ball State has played the 108th. Their offense makes it hard for them to get margin. They average 345 yards per game against teams that average allowing 379 yards per game, being held to 34 yards per game less than their season average. Ball State has a very good defense that allows 326 yards per game and 5.3 per play and will hold Miami Ohio in check again.
Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Ball State) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent off two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Ball State) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Ball State Saturday.
|11-24-23||Spurs v. Warriors OVER 234.5||Top||112-118||Loss||-110||11 h 42 m||Show|
20* Spurs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5
The Golden State Warriors are an OVER team when Draymond Green is out of the lineup. They miss his defense. They have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall without Green and tonight will be the 5th game of his 5-game suspension. They have gone for 237, 253, 237 and 238 combined points in their last four games.
The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy. They are at least respectable on offense, but they are terrible on defense either way. The Spurs rank 4th in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency.
The last two meetings between the Spurs and Warriors have gone OVER the total with 245 and 257 combined points. Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 200 or higher (Golden State) - after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a losing team are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-24-23||Pistons v. Pacers OVER 247.5||Top||113-136||Win||100||28 h 20 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Pacers OVER 247.5
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 13-1 OVER in their 14 games this season. They are scoring 128.3 points per game and allowing 126.4 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.
The Pistons don't mind getting up and down either as they rank 11th in pace. They play little defense ranking 21st in defensive efficiency. This one has the makings of a shootout. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-24-23||Nuggets v. Rockets +3||86-105||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets +3
The Houston Rockets are the most underrated team in the NBA right now. They are 7-3 SU & a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The three losses all went to the wire and were all on the road losing by 6 at the Clippers, by 1 at the Lakers and by 5 at the Warriors. They are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.
The Rockets are back home where they just crushed Memphis by 20. They will be highly motivated to beat the defending champion Nuggets tonight. The Nuggets just aren't the same without Jamal Murray and have struggled without him in recent seasons. The Nuggets are 3-4 SU but 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall without Murray with the three wins all coming by 4 points or fewer.
Denver is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. Houston is 10-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. I fully expect Houston to win this game outright. Bet the Rockets Friday.
|11-24-23||Texas Tech +13.5 v. Texas||Top||7-57||Loss||-110||96 h 22 m||Show|
20* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +13.5
Texas has all the pressure on them right now. They are trying to win out to make the college football playoff. They haven't contender for a national championship for a long time, so there is a ton of pressure on them right now. They are handling it will so far, but they have also been very fortunate in close games here of late.
Indeed, the Longhorns have seen five of their last six games decided by 10 points or fewer. The lone exception was their win over BYU, which is probably the worst team in the Big 12. They only beat Houston by 7, K-State by 3, TCU by 3 and Iowa State by 10 while losing by 4 to Oklahoma. It should be five one-score games in their last six considering Iowa State had a PAT blocked and returned for 2 points by Texas, turning a 7-point game into a 10-point game and costing Cyclones backers the cover.
Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury two weeks ago against TCU. He has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.1 per carry, while also catching 25 balls for 286 yards and a score. Backup CJ Baxter averages just 4.7 per carry and is a big downgrade. Plus, leading receiver Xavier Worthy got injured in the win over Iowa State last week and was removed from the game. He is very questionable to play this week. That would be a big blow considering Worthy leads the team with 63 receptions, 834 yards and 4 TD.
Texas Tech has been a dangerous team with a healthy Behren Morton at QB. He is completing 63.3% of his passes for 1,410 yards with a 12-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for three scores. Well, he has been healthy here down the stretch and it has led to a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS run with wins over TCU, Kansas and UCF. They have now clinched a bowl at 6-5 and have no pressure on them, so they will be pulling out all the stops to try and knock off Texas.
Last year, Texas Tech beat Texas 37-34 as 7-point home dogs, and now they are catching 13.5 points in the rematch on the road. There was nothing fluky about that win as Texas Tech racked up 479 total yards and outgained Texas by 53 yards in that contest. I like this Texas Tech defense, which allows 5.4 yards per play this season. To compare, Texas allows 5.2 yards per play, so they have only been slightly better.
Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 475 or more yards last game. Texas is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 home games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games. The Longhorns may get lucky and win another close game, but they aren't going to win by two-plus touchdowns to beat us. Bet Texas Tech Friday.
|11-24-23||Heat v. Knicks -5.5||98-100||Loss||-105||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* Heat/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York -5.5
I love the spot for the New York Knicks tonight. They are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off following a road loss at Minnesota which was their 5th consecutive road game. They needed the rest, and they will far back here on Black Friday with a blowout win over the Miami Heat.
The Heat are getting a lot of respect now after winning nine of their last 10 against a very soft schedule. They are coming off a blowout win at Cleveland, but the Cavaliers were on the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the 76ers in OT on the road the night before.
The Heat have two key starters questionable to play tonight in Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson and may be short-handed. They already lack depth as it is without Tyler Herro. Meanwhile, the Knicks are fully healthy.
New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 100 points or less last game. Miami is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 105 points or less in two consecutive games. Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings with four of those five wins coming by 6 points or more. Bet the Knicks Friday.
|11-24-23||Alabama -6 v. Ohio State||Top||81-92||Loss||-110||7 h 50 m||Show|
20* Alabama/Ohio State Emerald Coast Classic No-Brainer on Alabama -6
Alabama is absolutely loaded this season. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while scoring at least 98 points in every game thus far. They beat Morehead State 105-73 as 22-point favorites, topped a very good Indiana State team 102-80 as 18-point home favorites,crushed South Alabama 102-46 as 20.5-point favorites and covered in a 98-67 win over Mercer as 30.5-point favorites. They have covered their first four spreads by a combined 50 points and remain undervalued here.
Ohio State has been very disappointing thus far and the results lead me to believe they cannot hang with a team the caliber of Alabama. The Buckeyes are 3-1 SU but 0-3-1 ATS this season. They only beat Oakland by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites, lost to Texas A&M by 7 as 1.5-point home favorites, pushed in a 24-point win over Merrimack as 24-point favorites and failed to cover in a 17-point win over Western Michigan as 21.5-point home favorites.
Ohio State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite. Alabama is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 November games. The Crimson Tide are 23-13 ATS in their last 36 games as favorites. Alabama is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game. Nate Oats is 12-2 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 to 12 points as the coach of the Crimson Tide. Bet Alabama Friday.
|11-24-23||Texas Tech v. Michigan -2||73-57||Loss||-110||6 h 56 m||Show|
15* Texas Tech/Michigan ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -2
The Michigan Wolverines have impressed me this season. They have opened 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS with wins over St. John's on the road and Stanford on a neutral yesterday. They also took a very good Memphis team to the wire in a 4-point loss prior to beating Stanford.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are clearly down a couple notches this season. They are 4-1 SU but 1-4 ATS with some concerning results. They only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 9 as 24.5-point home favorites. They lost by 16 to Villanova as 3.5-point dogs. They only beat Northern Iowa by 2 as 7-point favorites yesterday. Michigan needs to be favored by more against this squad.
Michigan is 55-33 ATS in its last 88 games as a neutral court favorite or PK. Texas Tech is 46-70 ATS in its last 116 neutral court games. The Red Raiders are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4-plus boards per game. Bet Michigan Friday.
|11-24-23||Suns -7.5 v. Grizzlies||110-89||Win||100||6 h 47 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Phoenix Suns -7.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mess right now with all their injuries. They are 3-11 SU & 5-9 ATS this season. They are without Morant, Smart, Tillman, Kennard, Adams, Clarke, LaRavia and could be without Bane tonight.
The Phoenix Suns are getting healthier and forming some chemistry right now. They are 5-0 in their last five games overall, and I expect them to handle the short-handed Grizzlies tonight.
Memphis is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games as an underdog. Bet the Suns Friday.
|11-24-23||UTSA +3.5 v. Tulane||16-29||Loss||-110||92 h 8 m||Show|
15* UTSA/Tulane AAC ANNIHILATOR on UTSA +3.5
The UTSA Roadrunners won Conference USA each of the last two seasons. Now they are trying to show that they are the best team in their new conference in the American Athletic. I think they are the best team outside SMU, and they prove it here this week against Tulane.
UTSA has been hitting on all cylinders since getting a healthy Frank Harris back at QB. He has an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio since Week 9 and he means everything to this team. The Roadrunners are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in AAC play. They are scoring 41.0 points per game, averaging 464.6 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play, while allowing 22.1 points per game, 364.3 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.
Tulane is also 7-0 but 2-5 ATS and has been fortunate to win some of these close games against bad teams. Tulane is averaging 27.4 points per game, 403.3 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play while allowing 20.0 points per game, 342.6 yards per game and 5.5 per play. UTSA has the better numbers, and that's especially the case when you compare common opponents.
UTSA is 5-0 against common opponents of Tulane. They are scoring 37.8 points per game and allowing 20.0 points per game in those five games. Tulane is scoring 27.4 points per game and allowing 19.4 points per game against those same five opponents. So it's clear these defenses are pretty even, but UTSA has far and away the better offense.
Tulane only won 24-22 as a 24-point home favorite over Tulsa, 13-10 as a 17-point road favorite at ECU, 30-28 as a 10-point favorite at Rice and 35-28 as a 20.5-point home favorite over North Texas. That's four one-score games against four of the worst teams in the conference. Their luck runs out this week against a legit team in UTSA.
Plays on road teams (UTSA) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7-plus games after scoring 42 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. UTSA gets and extra day of rest and preparation after hosting USF last Friday, while Tulane had to travel to face FAU on Saturday. That's a nice little hidden edge for the Roadrunners. Wrong team favored here. Bet UTSA Friday.
|11-24-23||Dolphins -6.5 v. Jets||Top||34-13||Win||100||115 h 3 m||Show|
25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins -6.5
This was a good early grab on the Dolphins -6.5 as soon as this line came out on Sunday. It is a 25* at -7 or better, a 20* at -7.5 to -9.5 and a 15* at -10 or worse at this point. I already expected this line to climb, but then the Jets announced they were going to start Tim Boyle over Zach Wilson on Monday, and it shot up to -9.5 and -10 in some places.
The Jets are desperate at this point because they have scored a total of 9 offensive touchdowns in 10 games. They know they should have traded for a QB because they just don't have any good options on the roster. Boyle is actually a downgrade from Zach Wilson. Boyle had a 1-to-13 TD/INT ratio at UConn, an 11-to-13 TD/INT ratio at Eastern Kentucky and currently has a 3-to-8 TD/INT ratio in the NFL to this point. That's 17 TD and 32 INT in his career dating back to college.
It's safe to say Boyle and this Jets offense won't be able to keep up with Miami's No. 1 ranked offensive in the entire NFL. The Dolphins are scoring 30.5 points per game, averaging 434 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play. The Chiefs and Raiders held them in check the last two weeks, which is keeping this line lower than it should be. But the Chiefs are holding everyone in check, and the Dolphins shot themselves in the foot against the Raiders. They didn't have to punt on any of their first nine possessions of that game and left a ton of points on the board with three turnovers and getting stopped on downs. The Raiders didn't stop them as they had 422 total yards.
But while this Miami offense has hit the skids in recent weeks, this Miami defense has picked up the slack. Jalen Ramsey already has three interceptions in two games since returning from injury. They held the Chiefs to 14 points and 267 yards and the Raiders to 13 points and 296 yards. Vic Fangio now has all the players in place that he needs to run his aggressive, proven scheme. Don't be surprised if Miami's defense scores for us in this one against Boyle.
No question the Jets have a great defense, but they are getting tired from being on the field too much. I think we saw a little quit in them last week in their 32-6 loss to Buffalo. They allowed 393 total yards to the Bills in that contest. Now they have to come back on a short week and are a tired defense, and a tired team in general playing for a 5th consecutive week. The Dolphins had their bye prior to facing the Raiders last week so they should still be very fresh, which is a huge advantage on this short week.
New York head coach Robert Saleh is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on a short week as the head coach of the Jets. New York is 11-22 ATS in its last 33 vs AFC East opponents. Tua is 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more. Bet the Dolphins Friday.
|11-24-23||Iowa v. Nebraska -1||Top||13-10||Loss||-110||90 h 40 m||Show|
20* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska -1
I love the spot for the Nebraska Cornhuskers this week. They need one more win to get bowl eligible. That only adds to their motivation to beat their biggest rivals in the Iowa Hawkeyes. They lost by 3 to Michigan State, by 3 to Maryland and in OT to Wisconsin in their last three games but were -6 in turnovers in those three games and easily could have won all three. This is a much better team than their 5-6 record would indicate. They aren't going to pack it in now.
Conversely, Iowa is a much worse team than its 9-2 record would indicate. They are actually getting outgained by 34 yards per game on the season despite playing a very soft schedule. They have the worst offense in the country averaging 247.5 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. Compare that to Nebraska, which averages 317.9 yards per game and 5.2 per play.
But the biggest reason to back Nebraska is because Iowa is in a massive letdown spot here. They just clinched a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game by beating Illinois last week. They will be looking ahead to that game, and they won't put nearly as much emphasis into beating Nebraska as they normally would. They want to stay healthy to try and give a good effort in that game after getting blown out pretty much every time they have won the Big Ten West in recent years. They will get blown out again in that game, but first they are going to fall to Nebraska Friday.
After four straight heartbreaking losses to Iowa by one score in all four, the Huskers finally broke through with a 24-17 win at Iowa last year. They deserved to win every one of those one-score games and finally got one. That will give them a lot of confidence that they can do it again this year with that monkey off their back and a 7-game losing streak to Iowa in the rearview.
Nebraska has been through three different quarterbacks this season due to injury. They may have found their best QB against Wisconsin last week in Chuba Purdy. He completed 15-of-24 passes for 169 yards with one TD and one INT, while also rushing for 105 yards and a score on 14 carries. He gives them a great chance to win if he starts again this week, and whoever is under center will be better than Iowa's Deacon Hill, who is completing 49.7% of his passes and averaging just 5.1 per attempt.
Iowa needs to be able to run the ball to be successful. Well, they aren't going to be able to run on Nebraska's stout run defense. The Huskers allow just 87 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, holding opponents to 45 rushing yards per game and 1.1 per carry less than their season averages. Nebraska is the better rushing team averaging 187 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry and will win the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one. That will be the difference, plus their edge in motivation. Bet Nebraska Friday.
|11-24-23||Miami-FL v. Boston College +9||45-20||Loss||-110||89 h 38 m||Show|
15* Miami/Boston College ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston College +9
I really question Miami's motivation and their physical and mental state going into this regular season finale against Boston College. What started out as a promising season with a win over Texas A&M and hopes of winning the ACC has turned into a disaster. It all unraveled for Miami when they didn't take a knee and lost to Georgia Tech.
The Hurricanes have gone 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last five games overall with both wins coming by 8 points or less, so they haven't covered this kind of number in any of their last seven games. They are coming off three consecutive losses in high-profile games. They lost 20-6 at NC State, 27-20 at Florida State and 38-31 to Louisville. After falling just short against FSU and Louisville, two national title contenders, they won't be nearly as excited to face Boston College this week.
Boston College will have no problem getting up to face Miami. I also like the spot for Boston College because they get extra rest here after playing Pittsburgh on Thursday last week. So they get two more days of rest than Miami will on this short week for the Hurricanes. That's a big advantage and probably worth a couple points. Sometimes you just have to play the spot, and this is one of those times.
Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Miami is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite. The Hurricanes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after going over the total in their previous game. The Hurricanes are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games when playing with 6 or fewer days' rest. Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team that allows a 58% completion percentage or worse. Bet Boston College Friday.
|11-24-23||Memphis v. Temple +11.5||45-21||Loss||-110||89 h 37 m||Show|
15* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +11.5
Memphis just suffered their dream crusher loss in a 38-34 home loss to SMU that eliminated them from AAC Championship contention. They will fall flat on their faces this week and probably lose this game outright to Temple now. We'll take the points with the Owls as a result.
Temple has been so much more competitive when QB EJ Warner has been healthy. Warner is completing 57.7% of his passes for 2,746 yards with a 21-to-11 TD/INT ratio. He returned against Navy three weeks ago and threw for 402 yards and 4 TD. He threw for 280 yards and 3 TD against USF two weeks ago. And he threw for 323 yards and 2 TD against UAB last week. Temple was competitive in all three games.
Memphis just has a way of playing in close games. In fact, eight of Memphis' last nine games have been decided by 10 points or fewer. The lone exception was their 45-21 win over UAB that came against a backup QB for UAB due to injury. It was also a misleading final as UAB actually outgained them 381 to 358 but was -4 in turnovers.
The reason Memphis struggles to get margin is because their defense is awful. They have allowed 38 points or more in four consecutive games. They allow 34.9 points per game, 464 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play in conference play. Those are numbers very similar to Temple. I think the Owls can keep up in a shootout, and they will never be out of this one due to Memphis' leaky defense. Bet Temple Friday.
|11-23-23||49ers -4.5 v. Seahawks||31-13||Win||100||97 h 33 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West BAILOUT on San Francisco -4.5
The San Francisco 49ers are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS when healthy this season and 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS when not healthy. By healthy I mean having both Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel on the field at the same time. They came out of the bye healthy, and the offense has been humming again.
The 49ers beat the Jaguars 34-3 and hung 437 total yards on a very good Jacksonville defense out of the bye. They followed it up with a 27-14 win over the Bucs last week and had 420 total yards in the win. Brock Purdy has been flawless to prove his doubters wrong, and it will continue this week against the Seattle Seahawks.
The 49ers will be the fresher team because they recently had a bye. The Seahawks are gassed because they had their bye on October 8th and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week and on a short week. What makes them even more gassed is just how many of their games have gone down to the wire since the bye. Four of their last six games have been decided by 4 points or less. That includes their 29-26 win over Washington on a last-second FG, and their 17-16 loss to the Rams last week where they missed a last-second FG that would have won it. I don't trust them from a physical or mental state on this short week.
The 49ers have had no problem covering against the Seahawks in recent meetings. They won 27-7 in their first meeting last year, 21-13 in their 2nd meeting last year, and 41-23 in the playoffs last year. They dominated the box score in all three games. They averaged 419 yards per game and allowed just 275 yards per game to the Seahawks, outgaining them by 144 yards per game. They have outgained them by at least 104 yards in all three meetings.
The Seahawks are getting outgained by 19 yards per game on the season and are fortunate to be 6-4. The 49ers are outgaining opponents by 84 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play. The are elite and the best team in the NFL in my opinion. The other team right alongside them is the Ravens, and the Seahawks were blasted 37-3 at Baltimore a few weeks ago. They gave up 515 yards to the Ravens and were held to 151, getting outgained by a whopping 366 yards.
Seattle QB Geno Smith hurt his arm and was knocked out of the game against the Rams. He did come back in for the final drive and may play in this one, but he won't be 100%. RB Kennetch Walker is doubtful for this one. These injuries are starting to pile up again for the Seahawks, and they stand no chance of being competitive with the 49ers at anything less than full strength.
Road favorites are 24-1 SU & 19-6 ATS in their last 25 tries on Thanksgiving Day. Seattle is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the 2nd half of the season. San Francisco is 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in its last nine games vs. division opponents. Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after rushing for 75 or fewer yards last game. Bet the 49ers Thursday.
|11-23-23||Seton Hall v. USC -4||63-71||Win||100||17 h 47 m||Show|
15* Seton Hall/USC FS1 ANNIHILATOR on USC -4
The USC Trojans have one of the best backcourt tandems in the country in Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier. Ellis is averaging 21.0 points per game while Collier is averaging 21.0 points per game as well.
After beating Kansas State 82-69 as 3-point favorites and then covering against CS-Bakersfield, the Trojans ran into some injuries. Ellis didn't play in their upset loss to UC-Irvine, and Kobe Johnson (15.0 PPG) has missed two games as well. But now both guys are healthy and expected to play in this tournament. There's also a chance the Trojans get the debut of Bronny James, Lebron's son, for this tournament though I'm not expecting it. They don't need him to beat Seton Hall.
While USC has tested themselves already against Kansas State and UC-Irvine, Seton Hall is not prepared for this tournament at all. The Pirates have played the 330th-ranked schedule out of 362 teams. So there's not much you can gather from their 4-0 start against St. Peter's, Farleigh Dickinson, Albany and Wagner. This is a massive step up in class for them, and they will fail.
USC is 14-3 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game. Andy Enfield is 13-4 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of USC. Bet USC Thursday.
|11-23-23||Commanders v. Cowboys OVER 46||Top||10-45||Win||100||93 h 44 m||Show|
20* Commanders/Cowboys NFC Afternoon FEAST on OVER 46
The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They are very pass-happy and up-tempo on offense and they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. That's an OVER bettors' dream in the NFL, and we'll play this game accordingly.
The Commanders are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall, and their game against the Patriots that stayed under should have went over. They had 37 combined points with a total of 40.5 with 1:52 remaining in the 3rd quarter. Neither team scored again.
The Commanders lost 31-38 to Philadelphia for 69 combined points. They had 472 total yards against the Eagles. They had 432 total yards against the Patriots. The lost to the Seahawks 29-26 for 55 combined points and gave up 489 total yards to the Seahawks. Then last week they lost 31-19 to the Giants for 50 combined points. That's Tommy Devito and the Giants, who they allowed 31 points to. But they also had 403 total yards in the loss and probably should have scored a lot more if they didn't turn it over six times.
The Cowboys are rolling offensively. In their last four games, they had 43 points against the Rams, 406 total yards against the Eagles, 49 points against the Giants and 33 points against the Panthers. They will hang another big number on what is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Commanders in their current form. Their defense has struggled when they have actually been tested. They gave up 42 points and 421 total yards to the 49ers and 28 points to the Eagles. They will get tested by Sam Howell and this underrated Washington offense.
Ron Rivera is 20-2 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or more as a head coach. Rivera is 11-1 OVER as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as a head coach. Rivera is 9-0 OVER in road games after losing six or seven of his last eight games as a head coach. Rivera is 8-0 OVER in road games vs. elite offensive teams that score 29 points or more as a head coach. Mike McCarthy is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. a team with a losing record in the second half of the season as the head coach of Dallas. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-23-23||Michigan State v. Arizona -5||Top||68-74||Win||100||15 h 0 m||Show|
20* Michigan State/Arizona FOX No-Brainer on Arizona -5
The Arizona Wildcats are absolutely loaded this season. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS despite being favored by 25 points or more four times, they covered all four. They also upset Duke 78-73 as 5-point road underdogs, handing Duke their first loss at Cameron Indoor since current head coach Jon Scheyer took over for Coach K.
That gives these teams a common opponent as Michigan State lost 74-65 as 4-point underdogs on a neutral court to Duke. I think that's a telling sign of how this game is going to go for the Spartans. If they couldn't have with Duke on a neutral, they're certainly not going to be able to hang with Arizona.
Michigan State was also upset 79-76 as 16.5-point home favorites by James Madison earlier this season. This team has been grossly overvalued since opening as a Top 5 team. They don't have shooting as they are hitting just 26.3% from 3-point range this season. Arizona shoots the 3 at a 41.5% clip to compare.
Plays against underdogs (Michigan State) - off a blowout win by 30 points or more against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more in five consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Arizona Thursday.
|11-23-23||Packers v. Lions OVER 44.5||Top||29-22||Win||100||89 h 44 m||Show|
20* Packers/Lions NFC Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5
The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL averaging 27.2 points per game, 399.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They have combined for 77 points with the Chargers and 57 points with the Bears in their last two games coming in. This 44.5-point total is a very low total for a game involving the Lions.
The Lions are showing how scary good they can be offensively when healthy in recent weeks. They put up 26 points and 486 total yards on the Raiders, 41 points and 533 total yards on the Chargers and 31 points on an improving Bears defense the last three weeks. But their defense has shown a lot of holes lately. They allowed 38 points and 421 total yards to the Chargers and 26 points and 334 total yards to the Bears.
The Packers are showing signs of life on offense in recent weeks. They had 391 total yards against the Rams, 399 total yards against the Steelers and 397 total yards against the Chargers in their last three games. They can get things going against this Detroit defense again, and their defense has been far from spectacular. The Chargers should have scored a lot more points on them last week than they did, but they had a ton of drops. They should have scored 30-plus points on the Packers.
Detroit beat Green Bay 34-20 in the first meeting this season for 54 combined points. That game was in Green Bay outdoors in tougher conditions. This game will be indoors, and both offenses will thrive in the dome in Detroit. The Packers are likely losing their most important defender in De'Vondre Campbell for this one. They could also be without Jaire Alexander.
Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following a win by 6 points or less. Jordan Love is going to have to throw the ball a ton to try and keep up with this Detroit offense that is scoring 30.0 points per game at home this season. They'll likely have to abandon the run early in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-22-23||Bradley -4 v. UTEP||63-59||Push||0||12 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Bradley -4
The Bradley Braves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against a tough schedule. They went on the road and beat UAB 73-71 as 4.5-point dogs, beat Utah State 72-66 as 5.5-point home favorites and topped Tarleton State 86-63 as 10-point home favorites. They also beat Tulane 80-77 as 1-point favorites and controlled the game throughout as it only became close late.
UTEP is getting too much respect for its 5-0 start against a much softer schedule. The five wins came against McMurray, U of Oklahoma Science and Arts, UC-Santa Barbara, Austin Pey and Cal. Those last two wins against AP and Cal went to the wire. This will be by far their toughest test of the season to date, while Bradley has already faced three teams that are better than UTEP and beat them all.
Bradley is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite. The Braves are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 80 points or more last game. The Braves are the class of the MVC right alongside Indiana State and Drake. Bet Bradley Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Grizzlies v. Rockets -4.5||91-111||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -4.5
The Houston Rockets are one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA right now. They are 6-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only losses all coming on the road to three of the best teams in the NBA in the Clippers by 6, the Lakers by 1 and the Warriors by 5.
Now the Rockets are back home where they are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. They host one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 3-10 SU & 5-8 ATS this season. The Grizzlies have the worst injury situation in the entire NBA which is the biggest reason for their struggles.
Memphis is 1-18 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Bet the Rockets Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Raptors v. Pacers OVER 237.5||Top||132-131||Win||100||12 h 4 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Pacers OVER 237.5
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 12-1 OVER in their 13 games this season scoring 128.1 points per game and allowing 125.9 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency. Oddsmakers can't set their totals high enough.
The Toronto Raptors are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 240 points with Milwaukee, 255 points with Detroit and 233 points with Orlando. They will be forced to play up-tempo with the Pacers controlling the pace playing at home. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Bucks v. Celtics OVER 235||Top||116-119||Push||0||11 h 48 m||Show|
20* Bucks/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 235
Two of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA square off tonight. The Bucks rank 5th in offensive rating while the Celtics rank 6th. The Bucks also rank 6th in pace but are a poor defensive team ranking 23rd in that category.
Shootouts have been the norm between the Bucks and Celtics in recent meetings and both are even more OVER teams this season. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 239, 256 and 257 combined points in those three meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-22-23||High Point v. Hofstra -5.5||92-97||Loss||-110||10 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Hofstra -5.5
Hofstra is absolutely loaded this season and it's showing up in this tournament. They beat Buffalo 102-68 as 9.5-point favorites and Wright State 85-76 as 2.5-point favorites the past two days. They have one of the best guard tandems in the country in Thomas (22.0 PPG) and Dubar (19.6 PPG). These guards will lead them to another blowout victory over High Point today.
High Point has had to work much harder for its two victories the past two days beating a rebuilding Iona team 82-68 and then topping Illinois State 74-72 yesterday. This is a big step up in class for them. Keep in mind this team lost to Wofford and Queens prior to this tournament.
Hofstra is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a favorite. Hofstra is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game. Bet Hofstra Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Indiana State -5.5 v. Pepperdine||Top||90-82||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana State -5.5
Indiana State is absolutely loaded this season. The Sycamores are 3-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road at Alabama, which looks like it might be the best team in the country. They beat IUPUI 96-57 as 17.5-point favorites and then Rice 103-88 as 6.5-point favorites yesterday.
Indiana State jumped out to a 55-34 halftime lead on Rice yesterday and was able to coast in the 2nd half to save up for Pepperdine today. No player on Indiana State played more than 29 minutes yesterday, so they are going to be very fresh for Pepperdine.
The Waves are coming off two consecutive blowout losses to UNLV 82-68 as 2.5-point dogs and then UC-Irvine 76-60 as 5.5-point dogs yesterday. Indiana State is better than both of those teams and the class of the MVC right alongside Bradley and Drake. I expect another blowout victory in the Sycamores' favor today.
Indiana State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following two consecutive games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers. Pepperdine is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a loss by 10 points or more. The Waves are 0-7 ATS in thier last seven road games after scoring 60 points or less. Pepperdine is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game. Bet Indiana State Wednesday.
|11-22-23||Tennessee v. Kansas UNDER 140.5||60-69||Win||100||4 h 26 m||Show|
15* Tennessee/Kansas ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 140.5
Tennessee is a dead nuts UNDER team dating back to last season. The Volunteers rank 1st in the entire country in defensive efficiency this season after ranking 1st last season as well. Nothing comes easy against them, and they play at a slow tempo.
Kansas had nothing come easy yesterday in a 73-59 loss to Marquette. The Jayhawks look like one of the more overrated teams in the country, especially from an offensive standpoint. But the Jayhawks rank 6th in the country in defensive efficiency currently and get after it on that end.
Both teams lost yesterday, so both will be playing with extra intensity on the defensive end to try and get a win. Plus, this is an early 2:30 EST start time and will be a sleepy early afternoon game for two teams not used to playing this early.
Tennessee is 15-2 UNDER in its last 17 games as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or PK. Kansas is 75-47 UNDER in its last 122 games with a line of +3 to -3. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-21-23||Jazz +8 v. Lakers||99-131||Loss||-110||21 h 44 m||Show|
15* Jazz/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +8
The Utah Jazz are playing well going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Their two losses came to the Suns by 3 points apiece with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant both healthy. Now they will give LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are run for their money tonight.
The Lakers are getting too much respect now after winning five of their last six games coming in. But three of the five were decided by 6 points or less, and it has mostly come against a very soft schedule. They lost by 15 at home to the Kings for their lone loss. Their only wins by margin came against arguably the two worst teams in the NBA in the Grizzlies and Blazers, and they also only beat the Blazers by 6. They beat the Rockets by 1 last time out.
The Jazz should be the fresher team here too playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, while the Lakers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. The Jazz are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games as underdogs. Utah is 32-13 ATS in its last 45 games vs. a team with a winning record.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, winning between 51-60% of their games on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Jazz Tuesday.
|11-21-23||Tennessee v. Purdue UNDER 135||67-71||Loss||-110||11 h 36 m||Show|
15* Tennessee/Purdue ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 135
Tennessee is a dead nuts UNDER team dating back to last season. They are at it again this season. They rank 257th in adjusted tempo, 348th in average length of opponents possession and 1st in the entire country in defensive efficiency. They make their opponents work for every shot they get.
Purdue ranks 189th in adjusted tempo and 5th in defensive efficiency. So these are currently two of the Top 5 defensive teams in the country. The end result should be points being very hard to come by for both teams.
Tennessee suffocated Syracuse in a 73-56 victory that saw 129 combined points with a 145.5-point total yesterday to go well UNDER the total. Purdue topped Gonzaga 73-63 for just 136 combined points with a total of 153.5. These teams both went UNDER their totals by a combined 34 points yesterday.
Tennessee is 15-2 UNDER in its last 17 games as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less. The Volunteers are 18-5 UNDER in their last 23 games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|11-21-23||Pacers v. Hawks OVER 250||Top||157-152||Win||100||22 h 9 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Hawks OVER 250
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 11-1 OVER in their 12 games this season scoring 125.7 points per game and allowing 123.7 points per game. They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency. Oddsmakers can't set their totals high enought.
Now the Pacers play another dead nuts OVER team in the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks rank 3rd in pace, 6th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency. The OVER is 5-1 in Hawks last six games overall.
The OVER is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings between the Pacers and Hawks. They combined for 273 points in their most recent meeting and had no problem topping the 249.5-point total. They won't have a problem topping this 250-point total, either. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|11-20-23||Bradley -120 v. Tulane||80-77||Win||100||14 h 21 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Bradley ML -120
The Bradley Braves are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against a tough schedule. They went on the road and beat UAB 73-71 as 4.5-point dogs, beat Utah State 72-66 as 5.5-point home favorites and topped Tarleton State 86-63 as 10-point home favorites. UAB and Utah State are two of the better mid-major programs in the country, so they have been battle-tested heading into this SoCal Challenge Tournament.
Tulane is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS and has faced an extremely weak schedule. The Green Wave beat Nicholls State 91-81 as 13-point favorites, Northwestern State 88-71 as 18.5-point favorites before topping Sacramento State 92-57. This will be a shock to the system for the Green Wave having to go on the road for the first time this season and face a real opponent in Bradley.
Bradley is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a game where they made 60% of their shots or better. Tulane is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing three consecutive games as a favorite. Bet Bradley on the Money Line Monday.
|11-20-23||Eagles +3 v. Chiefs||Top||21-17||Win||100||12 h 59 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +3
The Philadelphia Eagles want revenge from their 38-35 loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. They got some bad whistles in that game and deserved to win. They outgained the Chiefs 417 to 340, or by 77 total yards. It was probably Jalen Hurts' best game of his career to boot, and you know he wants some revenge here.
But a big reason I like the Eagles here is the weather report. There is a 75% chance of rain with 15-20 MPH winds expected. So it's going to favor the team that runs the football better. Well, the Eagles are the better running team with the better run defense. The Chiefs have been vulnerable against the run and haven't been able to establish a consistent rushing attack.
The Eagles rank 8th in rushing at 129.7 yards per game while the Chiefs rank 19th at 103.8 yards per game. The Eagles are 1st in the NFL at stopping the run allowing 66.3 yards per game, while the Chiefs are 17th at 112.2 yards per game allowed. The Eagles are also 5th allowing just 3.7 yards per carry while the Chiefs are 29th allowing 4.5 yards per carry.
This Kansas City offense is really broken this season. They have managed 14 points or fewer in three of their last four games with the 21 they scored on the Dolphins coming with an asterisk because 7 of those came from a defensive touchdown. The Eagles will focus on stopping Travic Kelce just like everyone else has recently, and that formula has really worked in stopping the Chiefs because Mahomes doesn't trust his other receivers.
The Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games. Plays against home favorites (Kansas City) - after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game against an opponent that has gained 7 or more passing yards per attempt in three consecutive games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Eagles Monday.
|11-20-23||Heat -120 v. Bulls||118-100||Win||100||20 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat ML -120
The Miami Heat will be out for revenge from a 102-97 loss at Chicago on Saturday just two days ago. They led 22-1 in the first quarter and couldn't hang on as they got complacent and the Bulls got hot. They won't make the same mistake again here in the rematch.
The Heat are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall while the Bulls are 1-3 SU in their last four games. Plays on road favorites (Miami) - revenging a same-season loss while also off an upset loss as a favorite are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. I love the spot for Miami tonight. Bet the Heat on the Money Line Monday.
|11-20-23||Bucks -9 v. Wizards||142-129||Win||100||19 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -9
The Milwaukee Bucks are starting to form chemistry now with Damian Lillard in the fold and they are playing up to their potential. The Bucks have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone ATS loss coming by a half-point in a 9-point home win over the Bulls as 9.5-point favorites. They beat the Mavs by 7 as 2-point home favorites on the 2nd of a back-to-back. They also beat the Raptors by 16 and the Hornets by 31 on the road.
Now they hit the road again and face arguably the worst team in the entire NBA in the Washington Wizards. The Wizards are 2-10 this season. The Wizards rank 25th in defensive efficiency and are allowing 122.9 points per game and 49.6% shooting this season. They also rank just 24th in offensive efficiency and 27th in net rating.
The Bucks are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Wizards with two wins coming by double-digits. Milwaukee is 39-20 ATS in its last 59 games as a road favorite. The Wizards just lost by 13 to the Mavericks and by 21 to the Knicks at home in their last two games to fall to 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season. It will be more of the same here against the Bucks with another double-digit home loss. Bet the Bucks Monday.
|11-20-23||Connecticut -5.5 v. Texas||Top||81-71||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
20* UConn/Texas ESPNU No-Brainer on UConn -5.5
The UConn Huskies won the national title last season and are loaded again this season. They are off to a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season with all four victories coming by 20 points or more. That includes their 77-57 win as 11-point favorites over Indiana yesterday in the early game.
Since they blew out Indiana, they were able to rest their starters late. They also played the early game yesterday while Texas played the night game. So they got to rest even longer plus watch the Longhorns play after. They will be the fresher team and will have the better game plan coming into this one as a result.
Texas is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall and has been grossly overvalued. After covering by a single point in the opener, they failed to cover by 5 against Delaware State, by 4.5 against Rice and by 16.5 against Louisville. That 81-80 win as 17.5-point favorites over Louisville yesterday was alarming.
Louisville is expected to be one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country after last season's 4-27 disaster. Louisville was beaten in an exhibition game in the preseason. They only beat UMBC by 1 as 7.5-point favorites and were upset by Chattanooga by 10 as 3.5-point favorites. The fact that the Longhorns needed a buzzer-beater to beat Louisville is all you need to know about the state of their program this season, especially since they are without one of their best players in Dylan Disu.
UConn is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 neutral court games. The Huskies are 14-0 ATS in their last 14 games following three consecutive non-conference games. UConn is 19-2 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games. Texas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 75 points or more in two consecutive games. Bet UConn Monday.
|11-19-23||Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 220.5||104-105||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
15* Rockets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 220.5
The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank 29th in the NBA in pace and 4th in defensive efficiency. The Lakers rank 16th in pace and 22nd in offensive efficiency. This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight with some poor offense on both sides.
Five of Houston's last six games have seen 219 or fewer combined points. The lone exception was their 128-94 win over the Lakers that saw 222 combined points. But familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I expect this rematch to be more low-scoring, and we only need it to be 2 points less to cash this UNDER 220.5 ticket. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Kings v. Mavs OVER 244.5||129-113||Loss||-110||10 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Mavericks OVER 244.5
The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 11-2 OVER in their 13 games this season, scoring 123.5 points per game and allowing 119.7 points per game. They rank 4th in pace, 2nd in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency.
Now they play a Sacramento Kings team that is a dead nuts OVER team when De'Aaron Fox is healthy. They have gone for 252, 235 and 249 combined points in their last three games since Fox returned from injury. They have scored 132, 125 and 129 points in those three games and will hang another big number on the Mavericks tonight.
Dallas is 8-0 OVER when the total is 230 or higher this season. The Mavericks are 12-1 OVER in their last 13 games after playing three consecutive road games. They just combined for 257 points with the Bucks last night and have combined for at least 241 points with their opponents in six consecutive games now while going OVER in all six. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Kings -120 v. Mavs||129-113||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings ML -120
The Sacramento Kings have been rolling since getting D'Aaron Fox back from injury. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four games since he returned. Now they are in a great spot tonight with yesterday off and playing a Mavericks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.
The Mavericks put everything into their 125-132 road loss at Milwaukee last night and won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight. The Mavericks are a terrible defensive team ranking 25th in defensive efficiency this season. They won't be giving much effort on that end considering how tired they are.
Sacramento is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games. The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher. Sacramento is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 116-plus points per game. Bet the Kings on the Money Line Sunday.
|11-19-23||Magic v. Pacers -4||Top||128-116||Loss||-110||7 h 9 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4
The Indiana Pacers undervalued to start the season opening 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS. They score 126.5 points per game while ranking 2nd in pace and 1st in offensive efficiency. Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game. They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers.
This is a great spot for the Pacers as they are rested and ready to go after having the last four days off. Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing their 4th road game in 6 days and are a tired team right now, especially since they are short-handed due to injury. The Magic lost by 20 at Brooklyn and then upset the Bulls twice in three days, but the Bulls are terrible and the Magic are getting respect now for those two wins when they shouldn't be.
Orlando is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 games following two consecutive wins by 6 points or fewer. The Pacers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 November home games. The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five meetings with the Magic. Bet the Pacers Sunday.
|11-19-23||Magic v. Pacers OVER 234||Top||128-116||Win||100||7 h 9 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Magic/Pacers OVER 234
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 10-1 OVER this season. They score 126.5 points per game and allow 123.4 points per game this season. They rank 2nd in pace, 1st in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.
Playing at home today, the Pacers will force the Magic into an up-tempo game. They are forcing everyone into up-tempo games, which is beneficial to them considering they are the best offensive team in the NBA, so more possessions equals more points for the Pacers. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-23||Seahawks v. Rams +2||Top||16-17||Win||100||142 h 58 m||Show|
25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +2
I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week. They are coming off their bye week and are as healthy as they have been all season. QB Matthew Stafford will return from injury, as will LB ERnest Jones and RT Rob Havenstein. The Rams are primed for a big effort to try and get back into the playoff hunt.
I love backing teams that are pissed off going into their bye week because they usually take it more seriously and make it a chance to improve instead of relax. It worked for the 49ers last week and I was all over them coming off three straight losses going into their bye. They crushed the Jaguars 34-3. The Rams are off three consecutive losses as well and will crush the Seahawks for the 2nd time this season.
The Rams beat the Seahawks 30-13 on the road in the season opener. There was nothing fluky about that win as the Rams outgained the Seahawks 426 to 180, or by 246 total yards. And the Rams didn't have Cooper Kupp in that game. The Rams simply own the Seahawks, going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and a couple of those include close losses last season when they didn't have Stafford. They have dominated the Seahawks with a healthy Stafford or Jared Goff. Sean McVay owns Pete Carroll.
I question how much the Seahawks have left in the tank here. They have played five consecutive weeks and were in dog fights in four of those five games. They are coming off a 29-26 home win over the Washington Commanders needing a last-second FG to beat them. They needed a last-second TD to beat the Browns and PJ Walker three weeks ago, and they were blasted 37-3 at Baltimore two weeks ago.
The Seahawks are 6-3 this season but have played the 3rd-easiest schedule in the NFL. The Rams have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL. The win in Week 2 over the Lions was legit, but the Seahawks' other five wins have come against the Panthers, Giants, Cardinals, Commanders and the Browns with Walker. When they have stepped up in class they have struggled.
Seattle is actually getting outgained on the season by 23 yards per game, so their 6-3 record is pretty fraudulent. They have also been outscored on the season. I think they are getting too much respect here being favored on the road, and I'll gladly back the home dog that I believe to be the better team with a massive rest and preparation advantage. Plus, the Rams own the Seahawks. Seattle could easily be looking ahead to the game against San Francisco on Thanksgiving that will likely decide the division. They could try and conserve some energy for that contest instead, while the Rams will be 'all in' for a win here. Bet the Rams Sunday.