20* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 39-22-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.3 runs per game.  The Diamondbacks are scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 4.5 runs per game this season.

Zack Littell is 5-4 with a 5.01 ERA in 12 games this season allowing 40 runs, 33 earned, and 15 homers in 59 1/3 innings.  Littell has allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts against Arizona.  Washington has one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 4.76 ERA this season.

Eduardo Rodriquez is due some regression.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start against the Nationals.  The Nationals beat the Diamondbacks 14-1 yesterday to really tax their bullpen, which was already taxed after a 4-game series with the Dodgers.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last nine meetings between the Nationals and Diamondbacks with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Phillies OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the White Sox and Phillies today.  Temps will be in the 90's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center.  It was a similar forecast yesterday when these teams combined for 14 runs in Game 1 of this series.  The OVER is now 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

Sean Burke is 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA in 12 games including 10 starts for the White Sox this season.  He is backed by a poor Chicago bullpen with a 5.19 ERA on the road this season.

Andrew Painter is the weakest link in Philadelphia's rotation.  He is 1-6 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 11 starts this season, allowing 34 earned runs and 81 base runners in 53 1/3 innings.

The White Sox are 16-5-1 OVER in their last 22 games overall going for 10 or more combined runs in 12 of those 22 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 8

The Baltimore Orioles are heating up at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in 10 of their last 14 games overall.  The Blue Jays are also heating up scoring 5 runs or more in four of their last seven games, and 3 runs or more in all seven.  This total of 8 is too short today.

Kyle Bradish is 3-6 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 5.32 ERA and 2.03 ERA in five road starts.  He is backed by a terrible Baltimore bullpen with a 4.72 ERA on the season and a 5.79 ERA on the road.

The Blue Jays will make this a bullpen game and their bullpen is already taxed.  They will go with some combination of Spencer Miles and Braydon Fisher.  They allowed 13 runs to the Orioles yesterday and Toronto has now allowed 5 runs or more in five of their last seven games.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last six meetings between the Orioles and Blue Jays with 9 or more combined runs in six of those seven, and 11 or more in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Reds/Cardinals OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Reds and Cardinals today.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to left-center in St. Louis.  The Reds are 38-23-1 OVER in all games this season.  These teams combined for 13 runs yesterday with a similar forecast, and it will be more of the same today.

Nick Lodolo is 2-1 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in five starts for the Reds this season allowing 16 earned runs and 7 homers in 27 2/3 innings.  Lodolo has allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against St. Louis.  The Reds have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.11 ERA.

Matthew Liberatore is 3-3 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 12 starts this season allowing 30 earned runs, 10 homers and 93 base runners in 62 innings.  Liberatore is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three career starts against the Reds, allowing 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 innings.  

Both the Reds and Cardinals crush left-handed pitching hitting much better against southpaws than right-handers this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Royals/Twins OVER 8

It will be hot in Minnesota today and the ball should be flying out again like it was in Game 1 when the Royals and Twins combined for 5 homers and 14 runs in Game 1 of this series.  Both bullpens are taxed too with the Twins using seven different pitchers and the Royals using five in Game 1, plus a lot more bullpen action in Game 2.

These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball as it is with the Royals posting a 5.01 ERA and the Twins a 4.80 ERA on the season.  The Royals are heating up at the plate scoring 5.3 runs per game in their last seven games.  The Twins are 40-24-1 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.

Luinder Avila is 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.71 WHIP this season allowing 13 earned runs and 45 base runners in 26 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 17 base runners in 8 innings in his two starts this season.

Joe Ryan has struggled of late allowing 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings of a 9-6 win over the White Sox in his last start.  Ryan has really not figured out the Royals, allowing 10 earned runs in 6 innings in his last two starts against them.  HIs last three starts against Kansas City all saw 13 or more combined runs and sailed OVER the total.

The OVER is 8-2-1 in Twins last 11 games overall with 10 or more combined runs in seven of their last 10 games.  The OVER is 5-3 in Royals last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Mariners/Tigers AL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Mariners and Tigers today.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Detroit.  It was a similar forecast yesterday when these teams combined for 10 runs.

Both the Mariners and Tigers are heating up at the plate.  That's especially the case for Detroit, which has scored 7 runs or more in four straight.  The Tigers are 3-0-1 OVER in their last four games overall.  The Mariners are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.

Bryce Miller will make just his 4th start of the season for the Mariners.  He allowed 2 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-3 loss to the Tigers in his last start against them.  Keider Montero is 2-3 with a 3.69 ERA in 11 starts this season and 2-2 with a 3.89 ERA in seven home starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Angels/Dodgers OVER 8

The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game.  The Angels have been respectable offensively scoring 4.4 runs per game, but they have one of the worst staffs in baseball allowing 5.2 runs per game.

The Angels are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall finishing with 10 or more combined runs in five of those games, and 13 or more in four of them.  This total is too short for a game involving the Angels right now.

Reid Detmers figures to get the bulk of the innings for the Angels tonight.  He is 2-5 with a 4.76 ERA in 12 starts while allowing 36 earned runs in 68 innings.  Detmers has allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers.

Roki Sasaki has been a weak link in this Los Angeles rotation.  He is 3-3 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 10 starts this season, allowing 26 earned runs and 10 homers in 51 innings.  The Angels have already seen him once this season which will be an advantage for them.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Dodgers and Angels with 10 or more combined runs in seven of those eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Mets +116

The Mets are getting healthier and playing some of their best baseball of the season right now.  They are 5-2 in their last seven games overall while scoring 6 runs or more in four of their last six games.  The Padres are going through their worst stretch of the season, going 1-9 in thier last 10 games overall while scoring 4 runs or fewer in all nine losses, and 2 runs or fewer in seven of their last 11 games.

I love the spot for the Mets tonight.  They have the rest advantage after having yesterday off, while the Padres just completed a 6-game road trip that ended in Philadelphia last night.  Now they have to fly back across country and try and get back up off the mat for the Mets.

I love what I've seen from Christian Scott this season.  He is 1-0 with a 2.97 ERA in seven starts with 38 K's in 30 1/3 innings and only one homer allowed.  He is backed by a very good New York bullpen with a 3.23 ERA this season.

Michael King has been solid at 4-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 12 starts this season.  But King has struggled in his last two starts, allowing 9 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 9 2/3 innings.  And King has really struggled against the Mets, allowing 13 runs, 9 earned, and 5 homers in 8 innings in his last two starts against them.  He is 0-2 with an 8.48 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in three career starts against New York.  Bet the Mets Friday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Nationals/DBacks OVER 9

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 38-22-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 5.4 runs per game.  The Diamondbacks are scoring 4.5 runs per game and allowing 4.4 runs per game this season.

Foster Griffin is 6-2 with a 3.76 ERA in 12 starts for the Nationals this season.  But he does have a propensity to give up the long ball, allowing 13 homers in 67 innings this season.  Griffin has really struggled of late, allowing 17 earned runs and 7 homers in 20 1/3 innings in his last four starts.  And he is backed by a very bad Washington bullpen with a 4.76 ERA this season.

Merrill Kelly is 5-3 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He is 2-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in three home starts.  He has allowed 30 earned runs and 10 homers in 53 1/3 innings this season. He allowed 6 runs, 4 earned, and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 9-7 loss to the Nationals in his last start against them.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the Nationals and Diamondbacks with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Knicks/Spurs OVER 213.5

Both the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs were rusty and nervous for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.  The Knicks had 8 days off in between games, while the Spurs had 3 days off in between.  The rust and nerves showed as both teams shot much worse than their season averages.

The Knicks shot 41.5% from the field after having shot 47.7% or better in 11 consecutive games prior, and 49% or better in 10 of those.  That 47.7% performance also came largely due to rust in Game 1 against the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals after also having 8 days off prior to that series after sweeping the Hawks.

The Spurs shot just 36% from the field and 11-of-43 (25.6%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  Vassell, Fox and Castle combined to go 2-of-15 alone.  It's clear they are due some positive shooting regression in Game 2 and will be much sharper offensively.  They showed the most nerves as a young team playing in the NBA Finals for the first time.  Nerves won't be nearly as much of a factor for them tonight.

The OVER is 10-3 in Spurs last 13 playoff games.  They are playing at a fast tempo, and you could see the Knicks wanted to push it as much as possible to try and create easy looks before San Antonio's defense has a chance to get set with Wembenyama.  They will continue to push the pace in Game 2 tonight, and both teams will be much more efficient offensively.

The total for Game 1 closed at 217.5.  Circa dropped this number all the way down to 213.5 for Game 2 on the opener, which is where I grabbed it knowing there was value with the OVER.  I would play this as a 25* all the way up to the Game 1 total of 217.5, though it likely won't get that high.  It's at 216.5 as of this writing.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Cardinals OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Reds and Cardinals tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with double-digit winds blowing out to left-center in St. Louis.  The Reds are 37-23-1 OVER in all games this season.

Brady Singer is 2-5 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 11 starts this season while allowing 16 homers in 51 innings with only 36 K's.  Singer is 0-3 with a 7.67 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in six road starts, allowing 23 earned runs and 7 homers in 27 innings.  He is backed by a poor Cincinnati bullpen with a 4.96 ERA this season.

Kyle Leahy is 5-3 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 11 starts for the Cardinals this season.  He has allowed 26 earned runs, 8 homers and 86 base runners in 55 innings with just 46 K's. Leahy allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings of a 7-6 loss to the Reds in his lone start against them this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night Line Mistake on Pirates/Braves OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in the National League square off in Game 1 of this series in Hot-Lanta tonight.  It will indeed be hot with temps in the 80's at first pitch, so the ball should be flying out.  This total of 8 is too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers and bullpens.

The Pirates are one of the most improved offenses in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  They have scored a total of 49 runs in their last six games for an average of 8.2 runs per game.  The OVER is 8-1 in Pirates last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.  The Braves are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season as well.

Mitch Keller is 5-2 with a 4.35 ERA in 12 starts for the Pirates this season.  He is 1-2 with a 6.26 ERA in five starts at night.  Keller is 1-3 with a 7.31 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in seven career starts against the Braves, allowing 26 earned runs and 7 homers in 32 innings.  He is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.46 WHIP in four career starts in Atlanta, allowing 20 earned runs, 5 homers and 41 base runners in 16 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a very tired Pittsburgh bullpen.

Martin Perez is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball.  He's nowhere near as good as his numbers to this point, especially since he's a contact pitcher with just 42 K's in 51 2/3 innings.  He is 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in three career home starts against the Pirates, allowing 7 earned runs, 2 homers and 25 base runners in 16 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Marlins OVER 7.5

The Marlins are 110-78 OVER in all home games over the last three seasons.  They are 75-45 OVER as a home underdog and 61-34 OVER when the total is 7 to 7.5 over that same time frame.  This total of 7.5 is too short tonight.

The Rays are capable of covering this total on their own against opener Ryan Gusto and this poor Miami bullpen.  The Rays are scoring 4.6 runs per game this season and are ready to break out after a recent slump, and I think they do just that tonight.

Drew Rasmussen was due some regression and it hit him hard in his last start.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings of a 14-3 loss to the Angels.  He has allowed 4 earned runs and 16 base runners in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Marlins, who have already seen him once this season which will be to their advantage.  The Rays have a poor bullpen with a 4.62 ERA this season and a 4.87 ERA on the road.

The Rays are 5-1-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 8 or more combined runs in six of those seven games.  The Marlins are 6-2-1 OVER in their last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in six of those.  The OVER is 3-0 in three meetings between the Marlins and Rays this season with 9 or more combined runs in all three.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Tampa Bay Rays -130

The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated for a victory after going through their worst stretch of the season.  They have gone 2-8 in their last 10 games overall while getting just one day off during this stretch.  They now have a day off coming into this one to regroup, and I expect them to respond like one of the best teams in baseball, which is exactly what they are at 36-23 this season.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound tonight.  Drew Rasmussen is 4-2 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in six road starts.  Rasmussen is 3-0 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five career starts against the Marlins, allowing just 8 earned runs in 28 1/3 innings, including one earned run in 12 innings on the road.

Opener Ryan Gusto has posted a 9.00 ERA this season.  He allowed 2 earned runs and 7 base runners in 3 2/3 innings in his only previous action against Tampa Bay.  The Marlins will make this a bullpen game.  Bet the Rays Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 8

The Baltimore Orioles are heating up at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in nine of their last 13 games overall.  The Blue Jays are also heating up scoring 5 runs or more in four of their last six games, and 3 runs or more in all six.  This total of 8 is too short tonight.

Brandon Young is 4-8 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 20 career starts in the big leagues.  He has allowed 56 earned runs and 17 homers in 100 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a poor, banged up Baltimore bullpen with a 4.77 ERA on the season and a 5.94 ERA on the road.

Trey Yesavage is a nice young talent and could be a great starter soon.  But he has the disadvantage of having to face the Orioles for a 2nd time in a week.  He allowed 9 base runners in 5 innings of a 6-5 loss to the Orioles on May 30th.  Yesavage has now allowed 6 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Orioles and Blue Jays with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six, and 11 or more in four of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Dodgers are scoring 5.3 runs per game with one of the best offenses in baseball.  The Diamondbacks are scoring 4.5 runs per game with a solid offense but suspect pitching staff.  This total of 9 is too short tonight.

Justin Wrobleski is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball.  He is 7-2 with a 2.87 ERA this season despite having just 40 K's in 62 2/3 innings.  He is a contact pitcher and his stuff is not good, so it's only a matter of time before he gets rocked.  The Diamondbacks are a great candidate to rock him considering they are hitting .288 and slugging .467 against left-handed starters this season.  He allowed 10 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 1/3 innings in his only previous action against Arizona.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own against Ryne Nelson and this Arizona bullpen.  Nelson is 2-4 with a 4.82 ERA in 12 starts this season while allowing 15 homers.  He is 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA in six home starts, allowing 21 earned runs and 7 homers in 31 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Pirates/Astros OVER 8.5

The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the most improved offenses in baseball.  They are now scoring 5.2 runs per game this season after scoring 9 runs or more in four consecutive games coming in.  The Houston Astros are scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.1 runs per game profiling as an OVER team.

Both bullpens are taxed after combining for 16 runs in Game 1 and 20 runs in Game 2 of this series.  It should be another slug fest tonight, and both starting pitchers likely won't be able to go very deep in this game.

Kai-Wei Teng has not been able to go deep in games for the Astros, so their already tired bullpen will get exposed again today.  The Astros have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.33 ERA this season.  Their bullpen went 4 innings in Game 1 and 5 innings in Game 2 using five different relievers last night.

Jared Jones will be making his 2nd start of the season as he comes back from injury.  His first did not go well as he allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-5 win over the Twins.  He only threw 77 pitches in that game and will be on a pitch count again tonight.  

The Pirates are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all eight games, and 11 or more in seven of them.  The Astros are 7-2-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those 10 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on A's/Cubs OVER 10

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket between the A's and Cubs tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field in this one.  Runs and home runs should be plentiful as a result.

The A's should stay hot at the plate against Shota Imanaga, who has allowed 20 earned runs and 8 homers in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts.  And the Cubs should get their bats going against JT Ginn, who is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Knicks/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on New York +5

The New York Knicks are 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games with 10 of those wins coming by double-digits.  That includes six consecutive road wins all by double-digits and by an average of 26.8 points per game.

It's clear the Knicks are showing what they are capable of when they stay healthy for a full postseason.  They are a more veteran team that realizes this is their opportunity to pounce.  And they really haven't benefited from injuries to their opponents as they have mostly been healthy throughout this run.

What's most impressive with the Knicks is just how efficient they have been offensively in shooting 47.7% or better in 11 consecutive games.  They are simply unstoppable on that end right now, and I think the Spurs are vulnerable defensively.  I also like the rest advantage the Knicks will have after sweeping the Cavs on May 25th.

The spot is a bad one for these young Spurs.  They just slayed Goliath, taking out the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7 on the road.  They celebrated like they won the championship.  I think they will be a little flat in Game 1 of the NBA Finals as a result.

The Spurs benefited from the Thunder losing two of their top four scorers to injury in that series in Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell.  The Thunder really struggled offensively as a result by not having those two playmakers on the court.  Nobody except Shai could get his own shot, making them very easy to defend as the series went on.  The Knicks have killers all over the court, and it will be a shock to the system for the Spurs.

The Knicks went 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings with the Spurs during the regular season.  That includes their 124-113 win as 2.5-point favorites on a neutral in the NBA Cup Championship Game.  The Spurs needed a massive comeback in a 134-132 win as 3.5-point home favorites in the rematch two weeks later.  They got 11 3's from Champagnie in that game.  The Knicks came back and blasted the Spurs 114-89 at home as 1-point dogs.

What really stood out in those three meetings was the fact that the Spurs were fully healthy for all three, while the Knicks were without Anunoby in that 2-point road loss.  Wembenyama played in all three meetings.  No question he will be a problem as he always is, but the Knicks handled him well, and Mitchell Robinson is the ace up their sleeve that can defend him just about as well as anyone in the NBA.  The Knicks have elite wing defenders and I give them the advantage everywhere else in this series.  Bet the Knicks in Game 1 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Rangers/Cardinals OVER 8

The Rangers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall and really starting to rake.  They have scored 6 runs or more in four of their last five games overall.  The Cardinals really profile as an OVER team scoring 4.3 runs per game and allowing 4.5 runs per game this season.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Cardinals and Rangers with 9 or more combined runs in six of those eight meetings.  That includes a 7-4 win by the Rangers and 11 combined runs on 22 hits last night.  It should be another slug fest tonight given the profile of both starting pitchers.

MacKenzie Gore has been awful on the road this season, going 1-4 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in seven starts away from home while allowing 20 earned runs in 31 innings.  Gore does not enjoy facing the Cardinals, going 1-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in five career starts against them, allowing 21 earned runs, 6 homers and 47 base runners in 27 innings.

Andre Pallante is 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 10 starts for the Cardinals this season.  He has been at his worst at home, going 1-4 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in six starts, allowing 19 earned runs, 5 homers and 50 base runners in 31 innings.  Pallante allowed 3 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings in his lone career start against Texas.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Blue Jays/Braves OVER 8

The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  The Braves are 10-4-1 OVER in their last 15 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 11 of those 15 games, and 9 or more in 10 of them.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Braves right now.

The Blue Jays have gotten a lot healthier and are starting to rake because of it.  They have scored 5 runs or more in three of their last four, and six of their last 11 games overall.  Both offenses should have success against these two starting pitchers tonight.

Patrick Corbin has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last handful of seasons.  He isn't magically fixed in Toronto despite having some of the best numbers of his career to this point with a 3.65 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 10 starts.  This will be one of his toughest tests of the season.  Corbin is 5-12 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 21 career starts against the Braves, and 1-7 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 12 career road starts in Atlanta.

Grant Holmes is 3-2 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 11 starts for the Braves this season.  He has a propensity to give up the long ball allowing 25 earned runs and 11 homers in 57 innings.  The Blue Jays will do enough damage on him to aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+105)

The Padres are 1-7 in their last eight games overall while scoring an average of just 2.6 runs per game during this stretch.  It will not get any easier for them tonight facing arguably the best starter in baseball in Cristopher Sanchez.

Sanchez is 6-2 with a 1.47 ERA in 12 starts this season and 4-1 with a 0.85 ERA in eight home starts.  He carries a franchise record 44 2/3-inning scoreless streak into tonight's game and will be highly motivated to keep it rolling to try and break the MLB record.  I like his chances considering he's 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA in his last four starts against the Padres, allowing just 3 earned runs in 28 1/3 innings.

Walker Buehler is an absolute gas can.  He is 3-3 with a 4.88 ERA in 11 starts this season.  Buehler has been really poor away from Petco Park, posting a 8.04 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in four road starts while allowing 14 earned runs and 31 base runners in 15 2/3 innings.  He is 0-2 with a 4.82 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies, allowing 20 runs, 15 earned, and 6 homers in 28 innings.  Bet the Phillies on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Marlins/Nationals OVER 8

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in Game 3 of this series today.  The Nationals are 39-20-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 5.4 runs per game.  The Marlins are 38-21-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.3 runs per game and allowing 4.6 runs per game.  This total of 8 is too short for Game 3 today.

Max Meyer has big home/road splits this season.  He has posted a 4.78 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in five road starts.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings of a 9-7 loss to the Mets in his last start.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 2/3 innings in his last start against the Nationals as well.  This Miami bullpen has a 4.85 ERA on the road this season.

The Nationals will make this a bullpen game starting with Andrew Alvarez, who has posted a 4.02 ERA allowing 7 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings in relief this season.  The Nationals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 4.74 ERA on the season and a 5.30 ERA at home.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 10 or more combined runs in seven of those 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on A's/Cubs OVER 7.5

This total of 7.5 has been adjusted down too much for the winds blowing in at Fenway Park tonight.  These two starters will still get rocked.  The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the A's and Cubs with 8 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 meetings, and 11 or more combined runs in seven of them.

Rookie Gage Jump will be making just his 2nd career start.  The first did not go well as he allowed 4 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings to the Mariners.  The Cubs are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season with one of the better offenses in the National League.  The A's have a 4.49 ERA as a bullpen this season with one of the worst units in baseball.

Jameson Taillon is 2-4 with a 5.37 ERA in 11 starts for the Cubs this season.  He has allowed a whopping 19 homers in 60 1/3 innings already.  Taillon has allowed 16 earned runs and 8 homers in 14 2/3 innings in his last three starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Blue Jays/Braves Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  The Braves are 10-3-1 OVER in their last 14 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 11 of those 14 games, and 9 or more in 10 of them.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the Braves right now.

The Blue Jays have gotten a lot healthier and are starting to rake because of it.  They have scored 5 runs or more in three straight and six of their last 10 games overall.  The OVER is 3-0 in their last three games going for 11 or more combined runs in all three.

Kevin Gausman is 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA in 12 starts and 2-1 with a 3.45 ERA in five road starts.  But this will be one of his toughest tests of the season against Atlanta.  He has allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 12 innings in his last two starts against the Braves.

Bryce Elder has finally come back down to reality after a great start to the season.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of an 8-0 loss to the Red Sox in his last start.  He allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone career start against Toronto.

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket tonight as well with double-digit winds blowing out to right field in Atlanta. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Nationals OVER 9

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in Game 2 of this series tonight.  The Nationals are 38-20-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.4 runs per game.  The Marlins are 37-21-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.2 runs per game and allowing 4.6 runs per game.  This total of 8 is too short for Game 1 tonight.

Due to so many injuries to their rotation, the Miami Marlins will make this a bullpen game starting with Lake Bachar.  Their bullpen has posted a 4.89 ERA on the road this season, and I expect the Nationals to hang a big number on them today.

The Marlins should crush Miles Mikolas, who is one of the worst starters in baseball.  Mikolas is 1-4 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 12 games this season, including 1-2 with a 7.66 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in five home games allowing 19 earned runs and 7 homers in 22 1/3 innings.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with the Nationals having a 4.64 ERA overall and a 5.12 ERA at home.

The OVER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings with 10 or more combined runs in six of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Padres/Phillies NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

With both the Padres and Phillies trending under recently, we are getting value with the OVER 8 in Game 1 of this series tonight.  I think both lineups will have their way with these two overrated starters, who both offenses saw less than a week ago in San Diego and will give them an advantage getting to see them again.

Aaron Nola is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He is 3-4 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 11 starts this season, allowing 36 earned runs and 10 homers in 56 2/3 innings.  Nola is 0-1 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in four home starts.

Randy Vasquez is 5-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 11 starts for the Padres this season.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts, the last of which came against Philadelphia.  Vasquez does not enjoy facing the Phillies, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.30 WHIP in two career starts against them, allowing 10 earned runs, 5 homers and 23 base runners in 10 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Tigers/Rays OVER 8.5

The Rays are scoring 4.8 runs per game with one of the best offenses in the American League.  The Tigers beat the Rays 10-9 in Game 1 yesterday for 19 combined runs, and this total of 8.5 is too short with two gas can starting pitchers going for both teams.

Jack Flaherty is 0-7 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 0-4 with a 6.04 ERA and 2.20 WHIP in six road starts.  He has allowed 21 runs, 15 earned, 6 homers and 49 base runners in 22 1/3 innings on the road this season.  Flaherty is 0-2 with an 8.66 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in four career starts against the Rays, allowing 17 earned runs, 4 homers and 31 base runners in 17 2/3 innings.

Steven Matz is 4-2 with a 4.67 ERA in nine starts for the Rays this season allowing 23 earned runs and 7 homers in 44 1/3 innings.  Matz allowed 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 3 1/3 innings of a 11-6 loss to the Tigers in his last start against them.  

The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 10 or more combined runs in five of those seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +147

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 10-4 in their last 14 games overall.  They have a red hot offense scoring 5 runs or more in nine of those 14 games.  But they were just swept by the Mariners in Seattle last series, and they will be highly motivated to bounce back as they host their most hated rivals in the Los Angeles Dodgers for Game 1 of this series tonight.

The Diamondbacks have a big advantage on the mound which is why they should not be this big of underdogs to the Dodgers.  Eduardo Rodriquez has been one of the best starters in baseball this season, going 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 11 starts.  Rodriquez is 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in five home starts, allowing just 5 earned runs in 34 1/3 innings.  He has a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Dodgers firing 11 innings without allowing a single earned run.

Emmet Sheehan has been one of the weakest links in this Los Angels rotation.  He is 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA in 10 starts this season.  He is 1-1 with a 6.52 ERA in four road starts, allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 19 1/3 innings.  Sheehan allowed 4 earned runs and 7 base runners in 3 1/3 innings in his lone start against Arizona this season.  Bet the Diamondbacks Monday.

15* MLB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Seattle Mariners -126

The Seattle Mariners are 6-0 in their last six games overall.  They are red hot at the plate scoring a total of 43 runs in their last seven games for an average of 6.1 runs per game.  They take on one of the weakest, most injury-plagued, overrated teams in the majors in the New York Mets (26-33) tonight.

While Seattle gets to stay at home after sweeping the Diamondbacks, the Mets have to travel clear across the country and won't have their 'A' game in Game 1.  That's especially the case with them making this a bullpen game.

The Mets will open with Austin Warren before giving way to Sean Manaea for the bulk of the innings.Manaea has posted a 5.56 ERA and 1.62 WHIP this season, allowing 21 earned runs in 34 innings.

Emerson Hancock is one of the most improved starters in baseball and yet another example at how the Mariners just make their starters better.  Hancock is 4-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 11 starts this season, allowing 20 earned runs in 64 2/3 innings with 63 K's.  Bet the Mariners Monday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Marlins/Nationals OVER 8

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in Game 1 of this series tonight.  The Nationals are 37-20-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.4 runs per game.  The Marlins are 36-21-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.2 runs per game and allowing 4.7 runs per game.  This total of 8 is too short for Game 1 tonight.

Sandy Alcantara is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  Alcantara went 11-12 with a 5.36 ERA in 31 starts for the Marlins last season.  He is 3-4 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 12 starts this season, allowing 40 earned runs in 75 1/3 innings.  He is 1-2 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in five road starts.  He has allowed 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  He has a 4.63 ERA in his last two starts against the Nationals, allowing 6 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings.

Cade Cavali is 3-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 12 starts for the Nationals this season.  He has allowed 31 runs, 24 earned, and 84 base runners in 59 2/3 innings.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with the Nationals having a 4.55 ERA overall and a 4.94 ERA at home.  The Marlins have a 4.99 ERA as a bullpen on the road.  

The OVER is 5-3 in the last eight meetings with 11 or more combined runs in five of those eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Cubs/Cardinals NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

The Cubs finally got their bats going in Pittsburgh last series.  They scored 10 runs in Game 2 and 7 runs in Game 3 off of Paul Skenes, who is one of the best starters in baseball.  They had 5 runs in Game 1 and 6 runs in Game 2 of this series with the Cardinals, so they have scored 5 runs or more in four consecutive games now.

Temps will be in the 80's tonight in St. Louis so the ball should be flying out.  The Cardinals really profile as an OVER team scoring 4.3 runs per game and allowing 4.6 runs per game.  The Cubs are similar scoring 4.8 runs per game and allowing 4.4 runs per game.  This total of 8.5 is simply too short tonight.

The Cubs are down to Jordan Wicks needing to make a start tonight due to injury.  Wicks allowed 8 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 12-1 loss to the Pirates in his lone start this season.  He is 6-7 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 99 1/3 innings in his career in the big leagues.

Matthew Liberatore is 2-3 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 11 starts for the Cardinals this season.  He has allowed 30 earned runs, 10 homers and 89 base runners in 56 2/3 innings.  That includes 1-1 with a 5.16 ERA in six home starts.

The OVER is 7-4 in the last 11 meetings with 10 or more combined runs in seven of them.  The OVER is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings with 8 or more combined runs in 18 of those 22 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +135

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall.  They have a red hot offense scoring 5 runs or more in nine of those 13 games.  But they have lost the first two games of this series to the light-hitting Mariners, and they will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep by taking Game 3 today.

Merrill Kelly has been dominant in his last four starts where the Diamondbacks have gone 4-0.  He has allowed just 7 earned runs in 29 innings in those four starts for a 2.17 ERA during this stretch.  He has posted a 1.54 ERA in his last two starts against Seattle, allowing 2 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings.

Bryce Miller consistently gets too much respect for Seattle.  Miller went 4-6 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 18 starts for the Mariners last season.  He is working his way back from injury now and making just his 3rd start of the season.  He will be on a pitch count again today.  Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday.

20* AL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/A's OVER 10

Sutter Health Park has been one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball since the A's moved there last season.  And with temps approaching 90 and almost no wind today, it will be even more favorable conditions for hitters than normal.

The Yankees have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.0 runs per game.  They should crush Jacob Lopez, who is 4-2 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in 11 games this season.  Lopez has allowed 31 earned runs, 11 homers and 85 base runners in 48 2/3 innings.

Will Warren is 6-1 with a 3.55 ERA in 11 starts for the Yankees this season allowing 28 runs, 23 earned, and 7 homers in 58 1/3 innings.  Warren allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the A's on April 8th.  The A's should get to him and this shaky New York bullpen.

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Oakland with 10 or more combined runs in all seven meetings.  That includes 10, 10, 12, 14 and 18 combined runs in the last five meetings at Sutter Health Park.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Braves/Reds OVER 8.5

Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  The Reds are a dead nuts OVER team going 35-21-1 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.

The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  They have scored 7 runs or more in three of their last five games and are capable of covering this total on their own today.

Nick Lodolo is 1-1 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in four starts this season allowing 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 21 innings. That includes 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in two home starts, allowing 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 1/3 innings.  He is backed by a poor Cincinnati bullpen with a 4.87 ERA this season.

Spencer Strider continually gets too much respect.  Strider is 3-0 with a 3.46 ERA in five starts this season.  He has allowed 6 earned runs and 5 homers in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start against Cincinnati.  The OVER is 12-4 in Strider's last 16 starts, and we've seen 9 or more combined runs in 12 of his last 17 starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Nationals OVER 9

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 37-19-3 OVER in all games this season while scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.4 runs per game.  The Padres have been much more potent offensively away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park this season.  The first two games in this series saw 12 and 13 combined runs, and it should be more of the same today.

The Padres are capable of covering this total on their own against Zack Littell and this awful Washington bullpen.  Littell is 4-4 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 11 games this season, allowing 38 runs, 31 earned, and a whopping 15 homers in 53 1/3 innings.  The Nationals have a 4.60 ERA as a bullpen.

Washington should also hang a big number in Griffin Canning, who is 0-3 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in five starts this season.  Canning has allowed 19 earned runs and 4 homers in 22 2/3 innings.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Nationals.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Diamondbacks/Mariners OVER 7

Both the Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners are red hot at the plate right now and this total of 7 is too short as a result.  The Diamondbacks have scored 5 runs or more in nine of their last 12 games overall.  The Mariners have scored at total of 35 runs in their last five games for an average of 7.0 runs per game.  These teams combined for 13 runs and 26 hits in Game 1 yesterday, and it should be more of the same in Game 2 today.

Ryne Nelson is 2-3 with a 4.65 ERA in 11 starts for the Diamondbacks this season.  He has allowed 37 runs, 31 earned, and 11 homers in 60 innings.  He is backed by a poor Arizona bullpen with a 4.21 ERA this season.

Bryan Woo is 4-3 with a 3.82 ERA in 11 starts this season while allowing 27 earned runs in 63 2/3 innings.  Wood does not enjoy facing the Diamondbacks, going 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA in two career starts against them while allowing 8 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Yankees/A's OVER 9.5

Sutter Health Park has been one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball since the A's moved there last season.  And with temps approaching 80 and light winds blowing out to center tonight, it will be even more favorable conditions for hitters than normal.

The Yankees have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game.  They should crush JT Ginn, who has really struggled at Sutter Health Park.  Ginn went 1-5 with a 6.85 ERA and 1.63 WHIP at home last season, allowing 36 earned runs and 12 homers in 47 1/3 innings.  He is 1-1 with a 5.21 ERA in five home starts this season.

Ryan Weathers is 2-2 with a 3.14 ERA in 10 starts this season while allowing 8 homers in 57 1/3 innings.  The A's can get to him tonight and this shaky New York bullpen.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Oakland with 10 or more combined runs in all six meetings.  That includes 10, 12, 14 and 18 combined runs in the four meetings at Sutter Health Park.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 7 No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

NBA Game 7's after Round 1 have gone 26-12 UNDER over the last two decades.  In the conference finals or NBA finals, the UNDER is 12-1 over this same stretch.  In matchups between Top 3 seeds, the UNDER is 17-2 in the last 19 Game 7's with one of those two overs only going over because of OT.

Familiarity favors defense and lower scoring games.  The longer a series goes on, the harder points are to come by.  The Spurs and Thunder know each other inside and out as this will be their 12th and final meeting of the season.  This favors defense over offense almost every time.

The Thunder being without two of their top four scorers in Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell have made them have to be more defensive-minded in these playoffs.  They are playing guys a lot more minutes that are more known for defense than offense in Dort, Caruso and Wallace.  They know they are good enough to win a defensive battle, too.

The pace in this series has consistently gotten slower and slower with fewer fast break opportunities.  The Spurs are playing much slower after having 23 turnovers in Game 1 and 21 in Game 2. They have just 15 turnovers or less in each of the last four games, making taking care of the ball more of a priority instead of getting out and running.  

These teams went for just 185 combined points in Game 4 and 209 in Game 6, so this total of 213.5 is still too high for Game 7 despite an adjustment down.  With a trip to the NBA Finals on the line tonight, both teams will play tight and that will favor defense over offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Braves/Reds OVER 9.5

The Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  The Reds are a dead nuts OVER team going 35-20-1 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.

The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  They have scored 7 runs or more in three of their last four games, including yesterday in a 8-3 victory over the Reds and 11 combined runs.  It should be another slug fest today given the poor quality of these two starting pitchers.

Martin Perez is 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA in five road starts this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 24 2/3 innings.  I fully expect the Reds to crush this soft tosser.

But the Braves are capable of covering this total on their own against Brady Singer and this Cincinnati bullpen. Singer is 2-4 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 10 starts this season, allowing 32 earned runs, 14 homers and 78 base runners in 46 innings.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 4.88 ERA and 1.51 WHIP this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Cardinals OVER 8

The Cubs finally got their bats going in Pittsburgh last series.  They scored 10 runs in Game 2 and 7 runs in Game 3 off of Paul Skenes, who is one of the best starters in baseball.  They had 5 runs in a 6-5 loss to the Cardinals in Game 1 of this series as these teams combined for 20 hits.  It should be another slug fest tonight.

It's going to be 80 degrees with very light winds in St. Louis tonight so the ball should be flying out.  The Cardinals really profile as an OVER team scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 4.6 runs per game.  The Cubs are similar scoring 4.8 runs per game and allowing 4.5 runs per game.  This total of 8 is simply too short tonight.

Ben Brown won't go very deep into this game which will expose this Chicago bullpen.  Brown allowed a whopping 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 5 innings in his lone career start against the Cardinals, which also came in St. Louis.

Kyle Leahy is 5-3 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 10 starts for the Cardinals this season.  He has allowed 25 earned runs, 8 homers and 80 base runners in 50 2/3 innings.  St. Louis has a poor bullpen with a 4.33 ERA this season.  

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 10 or more combined runs in seven of them.  The OVER is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings with 8 or more combined runs in 17 of those 21 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Padres/Nationals OVER 7.5

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 36-19-3 OVER in all games this season while scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.5 runs per game.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the Nationals and it's adjusted down too much for the wind blowing in today.

The Padres have been much more potent offensively away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park this season.  They are capable of covering this total on their own against Foster Griffin and this awful Washington bullpen.  

Griffin is 6-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 11 starts this season while allowing 10 homers in 62 innings.  He has allowed a whopping 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  The Nationals have a 4.63 ERA as a bullpen.

Michael King is 4-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 11 starts for the Padres this season.  The Padres used all their top bullpen arms yesterday to close out a 7-5 win over the Nationals and 12 combined runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Yankees/A's OVER 9.5

Sutter Health Park has been one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball since the A's moved there last season.  And with temps in the 70's and light winds blowing out to center tonight, it will be even more favorable conditions for hitters than normal.

The Yankees have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.0 runs per game.  They should crush Luis Severino, who has really struggled at Sutter Health Park.  Severino went 2-9 with a 6.01 ERA in 15 home starts last season.  He is 1-2 with a 5.55 ERA in five home starts this season.  Severino is 0-2 with a 11.37 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees, allowing 16 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings.

Carlos Rodon has struggled in his return from injury.  He is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 19 base runners in 13 innings.  He will remain on a pitch count tonight, and the A's should get after him.  

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Oakland with 10 or more combined runs in all five meetings.  That includes 12, 14 and 18 combined runs in the three meetings at Sutter Health Park.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL Friday Night Line Mistake on Giants/Rockies OVER 10.5

Coors Field is the most hitter-friendly park in baseball.  That's even more the case tonight with the forecast, which is calling for temps in the 70's and light winds blowing out to center.  Runs should be plentiful between the Giants and Rockies tonight as a result.

Logan Webb is 2-4 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in eight starts for the Giants this season, allowing 28 earned runs in 48 innings.  Webb is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in his last two starts at Coors Field, allowing 6 earned runs and 21 base runners in 11 innings.

The Giants are capable of covering this total on their own against one of the worst starters in baseball. Michael Lorenzen is 2-7 with a 7.21 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 10.03 ERA and 2.44 WHIP in five home starts.  He is 0-2 with a 7.06 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in five career starts against the Giants, allowing 17 earned runs, 6 homers and 45 base runners in 21 2/3 innings.

The Giants are 8-2-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Colorado with 10 or more combined runs in all six meetings, and 11 or more in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL Friday Night Line Mistake on Blue Jays/Orioles OVER 8.5

The Baltimore Orioles are red hot at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in five of their last seven games overall.  They have scored a total of 27 runs in their last four games.  Toronto has also shown more signs of life at the plate as well of late thanks in large part to getting a lot healthier.  Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to center in Baltimore to aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket tonight.

Trevor Rogers has been an absolute gas can for the Orioles.  He is 2-6 with a 6.96 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He has allowed 33 earned runs in 42 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a poor Baltimore bullpen with a 4.58 ERA on the season.

The Blue Jays will make this a bullpen game starting with Adam Macko.  They have a taxed bullpen after a pair of one-run wins over the last two days as well.  The Orioles should stay hot at the plate tonight and hang a big number on Macko and this bullpen.  

The OVER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings between the Blue Jays and Orioles with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 16 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Nationals OVER 9

Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to center in Washington DC tonight to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket.  The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 35-19-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.4 runs per game.

The Padres obviously have better success at the plate on the road considering Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors.  They also play the Dodgers and Giants within their division, two more pitcher-friendly parks.

The Padres should hang a big number on the Nationals today.  They will go with an opener in Paxton Schultz who is 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, allowing 11 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings.  The Nationals will make this a bullpen game, and they have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 4.63 ERA.

Lucas Giolito will be making just his 3rd start of the season for the Padres as he makes his way back from injury.  He has allowed 8 walks in 10 innings with only 5 K's in his first two starts as control has been an issue.  Giolito hasn't been an above average starter in the majors since 2021.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Braves/Reds OVER 9

Temperatures will be approaching 80 tonight at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.  This will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket.  The Braves are scoring 5.3 runs per game with one of the best offenses in baseball.  The Reds are 34-20-1 OVER in all games this season while scoring 4.5 runs per game and allowing 4.9 runs per game.

The Braves will crush Chris Paddack, who is 0-5 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in eight starts this season while allowing 28 earned runs in 35 2/3 innings.  The Reds also have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 4.80 ERA once Paddack departs.

Grant Holmes is 3-2 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 10 starts for the Braves this season while allowing 22 earned runs and.9 homers in 52 1/3 innings.  Holmes is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in two career starts against the Reds, allowing 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 9 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio -2.5

The San Antonio Spurs are 12-1 SU & 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  They have been one of the most resilient teams in the NBA and have answered the bell time and time again following a defeat.

Their last three wins in these playoffs off a loss have come by 38, 29 and 21 points.  That includes their 103-82 win over the Spurs in Game 4 that evened this series at 2-2.  Now they will even it at 3-3 with a dominant home win tonight.

The Thunder are without Ajay Mitchell and likely without Jalen Williams again tonight.  They won't be nearly as good on the road without these guys as they were at home.  They shot 43.8% from 3 at home in Game 5.  They shot just 18.2% from 3 on the road in Game 4.

The Spurs are also due some positive shooting regression after making 38.9% from the field in Game 4 and 40.2% from the field in Game 5.  They are a much better shooting team than they've shown, and they are the team that's fully healthy right now and will get more from their role players at home tonight.  Bet the Spurs Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Orioles OVER 8.5

The Baltimore Orioles are red hot at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in five of their last six games overall.  They have scored a total of 26 runs in their last three games in sweeping the Rays.  THey will stay hot at the plate at home against the Blue Jays tonight.

Toronto has also shown more signs of life at the plate as well of late thanks in large part to getting a lot healthier.  The Blue Jays have had at least 10 hits in three of their last five games overall.  They will also stay hot at the plate tonight.

Patrick Corbin has been a gas can for the last five years.  He's not magically fixed in Toronto this season despite posting a solid 3.86 ERA in nine starts.  He has a 1.40 WHIP, and he allows too many base runners with only 32 K's in 44 1/3 innings to keep getting away with it.  Corbin is 1-6 with a 5.66 ERA in 10 career starts against the Orioles, allowing 35 earned runs in 55 2/3 innings.

Chris Bassitt has been an absolute dumpster fire this season, going 4-3 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 10 games while allowing 29 earned runs and 79 base runners in 47 1/3 innings.  He is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA in three career starts against Toronto, allowing 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 19 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on Twins/White Sox OVER 7.5

There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to right field in Chicago this afternoon to aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket.  The Twins and White Sox have gone for at least 8 combined runs in eight of their last 10 meetings.  This total of 7.5 is too short today.

That's especially the case with the Twins making this a bullpen game starting with Kendry Rojas.  The Twins have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 4.94 ERA on the season.  The White Sox haven't been much better with a 4.73 ERA as a bullpen.

Davis Martin is getting too much respect for the White Sox after opening 7-1 with a 2.04 ERA this season.  Martin allowed 4 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in a 9-4 win over the Giants in his last start.  Martin has allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 11 innings in his last two starts against the Twins, which saw 15 and 10 combined runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Reds/Mets OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Reds and Mets tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to right-center.  These teams went for 9 combined runs in each of the first two games in this series, and it should be more of the same today.

The Reds are 34-19-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Reds have scored at least 4 runs in 12 of their last 13 games overall with one of the best offenses in baseball.  They have scored at least 7 runs in four straight games.  They have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 4.80 ERA.

Andrew Abbott is 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 11 starts for the Reds this season.  Abbott is 0-2 with a 5.12 ERA in four career starts against the Mets.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against New York.

The Mets will be making this a bullpen game starting with opener Huascar Brazoban.  They have allowed at least 4 runs in eight of their last 10 games overall, including 7 runs or more in five of their last nine.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Cubs/Pirates OVER 8.5

The Pirates are scoring 4.9 runs per game with one of the most underrated lineups in baseball.  The Cubs are scoring 4.6 runs per game on the season even with their recent struggles.  Both lineups should have their way with these two gas can starting pitchers tonight.

Jameson Taillon is 2-4 with a 5.20 ERA in 10 starts this season allowing a whopping 17 homers in 55 1/3 innings.  Taillon is 1-3 with a 6.04 ERA in five road starts, allowing 10 homers in 28 1/3 innings.  Taillon has allowed 12 earned runs and 6 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  He allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings in his lone start against the Pirates this season on April 12th.

Bubba Chandler is 1-6 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 10 starts for the Pirates this season, allowing 25 earned runs and 7 homers in 47 innings.  Chandler is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in four home starts.  He allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 1/3 innings opposite Taillon on April 12th in his lone career start against the Cubs.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks/Giants OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Diamondbacks and Giants tonight.  There will be 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in San Francisco this afternoon.

The Diamondbacks and their opponents have gone for 8 or more combined runs in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  They are scoring 4.7 runs per game and allowing 4.4 runs per game this season.

The Giants are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all 10 games, and 9 or more in eight of them.  They just went for exactly 13 combined runs with the White Sox in all three games last series at home.  They are allowing 4.6 runs per game this season.

Mike Soroka is 3-1 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four road starts this season, allowng 14 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a poor Arizona bullpen with a 4.33 ERA overall and a 4.66 ERA on the road.  Trevor McDonald was rocked for 7 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of a 9-4 home loss to the White Sox in his last start.  

The Diamondbacks and Giants have combined for 8 or more runs in 18 of their last 21 meetings overall.  This total of 7.5 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Mariners/A's OVER 9

Sutter Health Park, the home of the A's, is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  And the forecast will be favorable for runs today with temps in the 70's and light winds blowing out to left center.

Logan Gilbert is 2-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 11 starts this season allowing 11 homers in 62 1/3 innings.  Jeffrey Springs is 3-5 with a 4.11 ERA in 11 starts this season allowing 11 homers in 61 1/3 innings.  Both starters have the propensity to give up the long ball.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Nationals/Guardians OVER 8

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 35-18-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.5 runs per game.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 11 of their last 15 games overall, including 15 runs or more in six of them.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

The Nationals will go with an opener before giving one of the worst starters in baseball the bulk of the innings.  Miles Mikolas is 1-3 with a 6.17 ERA in 11 games for the Nationals this season, allowing 32 earned runs and 11 homers in 46 2/3 innings.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 4.72 ERA.

Gavin Williams is 7-3 with a 3.25 ERA in 11 starts for the Guardians.  He has allowed 25 earned runs and 9 homers in 69 1/3 innings.  He recently allowed 5 earned runs to the Twins and 5 to the Royals in two of his last four starts.

The OVER is 9-2 in the last nine meetings between the Nationals and Guardians with 9 or more combined runs in eight of those.  The OVER is 7-2 in Cleveland's last nine home games with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on DBacks/Giants OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Diamondbacks and Giants tonight.  There will be 20-25 MPH winds blowing out to center in San Francisco tonight.

The Diamondbacks and their opponents have gone for 8 or more combined runs in 10 of their last 12 games overall.  They are scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 4.4 runs per game this season.

The Giants are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all nine games, and 9 or more in seven of them.  They just went for exactly 13 combined runs with the White Sox in all three games last series at home.  They are allowing 4.6 runs per game this season.

Eduardo Rodriquez is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in five road starts this season.  Rodriquez is 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.55 WHP in his last four starts against the Giants, allowing 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 20 innings.

Arizona is capable of covering this total on its own against Tyler Mahle, who is 1-6 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Mahle has allowed 35 earned runs and 10 homers in 51 2/3 innings.  One of those starts came against Arizona in his last start on May 20th where he allowed 6 earned runs in 5 innings.  He will get rocked again less than a week later.

The Diamondbacks and Giants have combined for 8 or more runs in 17 of their last 20 meetings overall.  This total of 8 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Mariners/A's OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Mariners and A's tonight.  There will be light winds blowing out to center at Sutter Health Park, which has proven to be one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball since the A's moved their for the past two seasons.  These teams combined for 11 runs in Game 1 yesterday and it should be another slug fest tonight.

Emerson Hancock is 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA in four road starts this season allowing 5 homers in 24 2/3 innings.  Hancock is 0-0 with a 4.41 ERA in three career starts against the A's allowing 5 homers in 16 1/3 innings.

Luis Severino went 2-9 with a 6.01 ERA in 15 starts at Sutter Health Park last season.  He is 1-2 with a 5.55 ERA in four home starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 24 1/3 innings.  Severino is 2-1 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in four career home starts against the Mariners, allowing 12 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 5 No-Brainer on San Antonio +4.5

The Spurs made a great adjustment in Game 4 that I think will pay dividends the rest of this series.  They decided to stop double-teaming Shai and giving up wide open 3-pointers which led to an NBA playoff record 76 bench points from the Thunder in Game 3.

The Spurs only lost the bench scoring 34-30 in Game 4, and most of those points for the Thunder came in the 4th quarter when they were sitting starters with the game already decided in a 103-82 victory by the Spurs.  They are willing to give up 30 points to Shai and not allow open 3-pointers.  I think that's the perfect strategy as Shai is going to still have to make tough shots to beat them.

While the Spurs are fully healthy, the Thunder are going to be without Ajay Mitchell again tonight, and Jalen Williams is questionable after missing the past two games with a hamstring injury.  Mitchell was WIlliams' replacement in the starting lineup and had been a huge part of them not missing Williams so much.  But without both now the Spurs are in real trouble.

Chet Holmgren is one of the most overrated players in the NBA and he just folds against Victor Wembenyama.  He has been borderline unplayable.  Isaiah Hartenstein tries hard, but he's no match for Wembenyama either.  And that is the biggest mismatch in this series and will continue to be heavily in San Antonio's favor as the series goes on.

The fact of the matter is the Spurs have had the Thunder's number this season and I expect it to continue in Game 5.  The Spurs are 6-3 SU & 5-3-1 ATS in their nine meetings with the Thunder this season.  And the adjustment to stop giving the Thunder wide open 3-pointers is the exact move they had to make.  Bet the Spurs in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -111

The Minnesota Twins have a big advantage on the mound over the Chicago White Sox tonight and should be bigger favorites as a result.  I fully expect them to bounce back from their 3-1 loss to the White Sox in Game 1 of this series Monday.

Joe Ryan is 3-3 with a 3.02 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He has allowed just 19 earned runs and 3 homers in 56 2/3 innings with 61 K's.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts.  Ryan is 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in six career starts against the White Sox.

Sean Burke is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA in 10 games for the White Sox this season.  He is 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA in six home games, allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 32 1/3 innings with just 25 K's.  Burke allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-1 loss to the Twins in his lone career start against them.  The White Sox have a 4.75 ERA as a bullpen this season as well.  Bet the Twins Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Cincinnati Reds -123

The Mets are one of the most overrated teams in baseball at 22-32 this season.  They are dealing with so many injuries to their lineup that they just can't be very productive right now.  They are without Lindor, Polanco, Robert and Alvarez and Juan Soto is dealing with an illness.  They have scored a total of 4 runs in their last four games.

The Reds have a massive advantage on the mound tonight and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Chase Burns is 6-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.95 WHIP In 10 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in four road starts.  He has allowed a total of 2 earned runs in 25 innings in his last four starts coming in.

David Peterson is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 3-4 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 11 games this season, including 1-2 with a 6.33 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in five home sgames while allowing 15 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings.  Peterson allowed 4 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Reds, falling to 1-1 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in five career starts against them.  

Cincinnati is 4-0 in its last four games overall scoring a total of 27 runs in those four wins.  The Reds have scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall with one of the best offenses in baseball.  Bet the Reds Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -127

It's time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Tigers.  They are riding a 7-game losing streak and will be highly motivated for a victory today.  They have had some rest thanks to a couple rain outs in Baltimore and will be playing just their 2nd game in 4 days.  

This has given them time to regroup, and now they have a chance to get back on track against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Los Angels Angels.  The Angels have been even worse than the Tigers going just 9-24 in their last 33 games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer in 22 of those 33 games.

Keider Montero has been solid for the Tigers this season at 2-3 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.01 WHIP In nine starts, including 2-2 with a 3.48 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in six home starts.  He is backed by a solid Detroit bullpen with a 3.98 ERA on the season and a 2.89 ERA at home.

I'll gladly fade one of the worst starters in baseball in Jack Kochanowicz, who is 2-3 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in five road starts.  Kochanowicz has allowed 15 earned runs in 16 innings in his last three starts coming in.  He also hates facing the Tigers, allowing 11 earned runs in 8 innings in his last two starts against them.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in the baseball with the Angels having a 5.36 ERA overall and a 5.89 ERA on the road.  Bet the Tigers Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nationals/Guardians OVER 7.5

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 34-18-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.5 runs per game.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 10 of their last 14 games overall, including 15 runs or more in six of them.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

Cade Cavalli is 2-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five road starts.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with the Nationals having a 4.71 ERA this season.

Joe Cantillo is 4-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Walks have been an issue for him with 27 in 56 innings.  He has largely gotten away with it this season, but the Nationals will punish him after putting up 10 runs and 6 homers on the Guardians yesterday.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last nine meetings between the Nationals and Guardians with 10 or more combined runs in seven of those.  The OVER is 6-2 in Cleveland's last eight home games with 9 or more combined runs in six of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE MONTH on A's +102

The A's have the healthier, better lineup than the Mariners.  They also have the advantage on the mound tonight.  They should not be home underdogs to the Mariners as a result.

Aaron Civale is 5-1 with a 3.31 ERA in 10 starts for the A's this season.  He'll be opposed by Luis Castillo, who is 1-5 with a 6.41 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 10 starts for the Mariners.  Castillo is 1-3 with a 6.85 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in five road starts.  Bet the A's Monday.

15* Mariners/A's MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 10.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10.5 ticket between the Mariners and A's tonight.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center at Sutter Health Park, which has proven to be one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball since the A's moved their for the past two seasons.

Luis Castillo has been an absolute gas can for the Mariners this season.  He is 1-5 with a 6.41 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 10 starts, including 1-3 with a 6.85 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in five road starts.  He has allowed 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 20 2/3 innings in his last four starts overall.

Aaron Civale has an unsustainable 3.31 ERA this season with a 1.39 WHIP.  He has a 3.48 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in his four home starts.  Civale has allowed 11 earned runs and 24 base runners in 16 innings in his last three starts against the Mariners.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Knicks/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on New York +1

The New York Knicks are in the midst of one of the most dominant playoff runs of all-time.  They have gone 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games with a remarkable 9 wins by double-digits.

Because of this domination, the Knicks have stayed extremely healthy by playing close to the minimum amount of games to this point.  And they are showing how dominant they can be when they are fully healthy.  They have shot 47.7% from the field or better in all 10 games and 50% or better in eight of them.

While the Knicks will be motivated for another sweep to get the max rest possible heading into the NBA Finals, I think the Cavs are just ready for their season to be over.  It was a disgusting effort in Game 3 in their 13-point home loss to the Knicks in a must-win game.  They showed some quit in the 4th quarter and I think that will carry over into Game 4 tonight.  

Fatigue is really starting to show for the Cavs after playing two Game 7's to open the playoffs.  They haven't had more than one day off in between games since April 27-28.  They have been gutted since blowing that 22-point lead in Game 1 and losing in OT.  They haven't recovered and will not recover in time for Game 4, either.  Bet the Knicks Monday.

15* Knicks/Cavs Game 4 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 215.5

The Knicks are on a historic playoff run winning 10 straight games with nine of those wins coming by double-digits.  The biggest part of that run is their offense, which has shot 50% or better in nine of their last 10 games.  They are getting whatever they want against the Cavs and will continue to get whatever they want in Game 4 tonight.

Cleveland has played at a much faster tempo and has been much more efficient offensively at home in these playoffs.  The OVER is 6-2 in all Cleveland home playoff games with 215 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  This total of 215.5 is too short tonight.

Cleveland was due some positive shooting regression after making 40% of its shots in Game 1 and 38.8% in Game 2 at New York.  The Cavs were better offensively in Game 3 at home shooting 50% from the field, but just 29.3% from 3. They are a better shooting team than they've shown in this series.  They went for 229 combined points with the Knicks in Game 3, and it should be more of the same tonight in Game 4.  

With this series being 3-0 in favor of the Knicks I think we see a lack of defensive intensity from both teams, but especially from the Cavs who know their fate is pretty much sealed.  They will go down guns a blazing offensively in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Nationals/Guardians OVER 8

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 33-18-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 5.6 runs per game.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in nine of their last 13 games overall, including 15 runs or more in six of them.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

Zack Littell is one of the worst starters in baseball and should not have a total of 8 attached to his name.  He is 3-4 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 10 games this season, allowing 30 earned runs and 15 homers in 46 1/3 innings.  He is backed by a poor Washington bullpen with a 4.80 ERA this season.

Tanner Bibee is also getting too much respect here.  He is 0-6 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 11 starts this season, allowing 25 earned runs and 7 homers in 60 innings.  This Cleveland bullpen has been better with a 3.69 ERA, but it's also a taxed unit playing six straight games decided by 3 runs or fewer coming in.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the Nationals and Guardians with 10 or more combined runs in six of those.  The OVER is 5-2 in Cleveland's last seven home games with 9 or more combined runs in five of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Antonio Spurs ML -122

The San Antonio Spurs are 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss this season.  Prior to losing the last two games in this series to the Thunder, you have to go all the way back to January 13th to find the last time the Spurs lost two games in a row.  They are very resilient, and I fully expect them to bounce back in Game 4 at home Sunday to even this series at 2-2.

No question the Thunder are due some regression from their bench after getting to huge efforts from their bench in Games 2 and 3.  In fact, 12 of their 13 3-pointers came from their bench in Game 2.  And they followed it up by getting 76 points from their bench in Game 3, which is a NBA playoff record.  That's clearly not going to happen again in Game 4.

The Spurs went all in on double-teaming Shai and making everyone else beat them in Game 3.  I think they are better off giving Shai single coverage and letting him get his 30 points rather than allowing OKC's shooters to get open looks.  They will make the proper adjustments in Game 4 in how they defend OKC.

The Spurs are due some positive shooting regression after connecting on just 42.5% from the field and 31.7% from 3 in Game 3.  I like the fact that both Dylan Harper and De'Aaron Fox showed they were healthy enough to play after being questionable leading into Game 3.  Conversely, the Thunder remain without Jalen Williams, and Ajay Mitchell is banged up as well.  Bet the Spurs on the Money Line Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nationals/Braves OVER 8.5

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 33-17-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.7 runs per game.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in nine of their last 12 games overall, including 15 runs or more in six of them.  This total of 8.5 is too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

The Braves have arguably the most potent offense in baseball scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  And they have been without their best hitter in Ronald Acuna Jr. for a couple weeks, but he made his return from injury last series.  Atlanta is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall with 9 or more combined runs six of those seven.

Foster Griffin appears to be hitting the rookie wall for the Nationals.  He has allowed a whopping 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  Griffin allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in a 11-4 win over the Braves on April 21st in his lone career start against them.

Soft tosser Martin Perez is also showing signs of regression.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings of a 8-4 loss to the Marlins in his last start.  Perez has allowed 13 earned runs and 4 homers in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Nationals.

The OVER is 4-1-1 in six meetings between the Braves and Nationals this season with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six, and 13 or more in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Knicks/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on Cleveland ML -130

The Cavs were down 2-0 to the Detroit Pistons last series and came back to win in Game 7.  They have that memory to give them some belief they can still make this a series with the Knicks, starting with a Game 3 win at home today.

Home teams have dominated in the playoffs in all Cleveland games.  In fact, they are 13-3 SU in all games involving Cleveland.  I think we see the best effort of the playoffs yet from the Cavs at home in Game 3.  We see this every year in the playoffs teams down 2-0 in a series playing their first home game usually dominate.

There's reason to believe the Cavs are going to be much better at home here.  They shot 40% from the field in Game 1's OT loss to the Knicks, and they shot even worse in Game 2 at 38.8% from the field and 25.7% from 3.

Role players tend to shoot better at home, and that will be the case for the Cavs here.  Strus, Merrill and Tyson went a combined 1-for-14 from 3 in Game 2.  These are three shooters they are relying on to spread the Knicks out, and they will be much better at home.  Bet the Cavs on the Money Line in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Knicks/Cavs Game 3 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 214

Cleveland has played at a much faster tempo and has been much more efficient offensively at home in these playoffs.  The OVER is 5-2 in all Cleveland home playoff games with 215 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 214 is too short tonight.

The Cavs are due some positive shooting regression after shooting 40% from the field in Game 1 and 38.8% from the field in Game 2, including 25.7% from 3.  Strus, Merrill and Tyson went a combined 1-for-14 from 3 in Game 2.  Cleveland's role players will shoot it much better at home as they have all playoffs.

The Knicks have been an offensive juggernaut in these playoffs during their 9-game winning streak.  They have shot 50% or better from the field in eight of those nine games.  They will continue to have offensive success tonight against the Cavs to do their part to aid us in cashing this OVER 214 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Braves OVER 8.5

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 33-16-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.8 runs per game.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in nine of their last 11 games overall, including 15 runs or more in six of them.  This total of 8.5 is too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

The Braves have arguably the most potent offense in baseball scoring 5.4 runs per game this season.  And they have been without their best hitter in Ronald Acuna Jr. for a couple weeks, but he made his return from injury last series.  Atlanta is 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all six.

The Braves are capable of covering this total on their own against Jake Irvin and this awful Washington bullpen that has a 4.90 ERA this season.  Irvin is 1-4 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 10 starts this season, allowing 29 earned runs in 46 2/3 innings.  Irvin has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings in this last two starts against Atlanta.

Grant Holmes is 3-1 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Holmes has allowed 15 earned runs and 5 homers in 29 2/3 innings in his last six starts coming in.  Both bullpens are taxed after going 11 innings last night.

The OVER is 4-0-1 in five meetings between the Braves and Nationals this season with 9 or more combined runs in all five, and 13 or more in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 3 No-Brainer on San Antonio ML -125

The San Antonio Spurs are a perfect 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  You have to go all the way back to January 13th to find the last time they lost two games in a row.  They have been the most resilient team in the NBA this season.

The Spurs have owned the Thunder this season going 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in their seven meetings.  They won both meetings in San Antonio by 20 and 10 points.  After dominating throughout Game 1, the Spurs were within 5 points of the Thunder in the final minutes of Game 2 but lost by 9.  It was actually a very impressive effort that they didn't fold the tent after taking Game 1.

Now it will be the most raucous San Antonio crowd this season in a Friday night home game in the Western Conference Finals.  The Spurs have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA, and the Thunder have really struggled on the road in the playoffs over the last two seasons.

The injury situation favors the Spurs.  The Spurs lost Dylan Harper last game, and De'Aaron Fox sat out the first two games with an ankle injury.  There's a good chance Fox was just kept out as a precaution in Game 2 after they stole Game 1, and he will return tonight.  I've also heard Harper's injury is minor and he could play tonight, too.

The injuries are more concerning for the Thunder.  Jalen Williams (17.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.2 APG) suffered yet another hamstring injury in Game 2 and was ruled out.  He will almost certainly be out again.  And one of their playoff heroes thus far has been Ajay Mitchell (14.0 PPG, 3.8 APG), and got banged up in Game 2 as well.  The Thunder got 12 of their 13 3-pointers from their bench in Game 2, and that's not going to happen again in San Antonio.  Bet the Spurs on the Money Line Friday. 

15* MLB Friday Night Line Mistake on Nationals/Braves OVER 9

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 32-16-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.8 runs per game.  They have gone for 10 or more combined runs in eight of their last 10 games overall, including 15 runs or more in six of them.

The Braves have arguably the most potent offense in baseball scoring 5.4 runs per game this season.  And they have been without their best hitter in Ronald Acuna Jr. for a couple weeks, but he made his return from injury last series.  Atlanta is 5-0 OVER in its last five games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all five.

The Braves are capable of covering this total on their own against Miles Mikolas and this awful Washington bullpen that has a 4.99 ERA this season.  Mikolas is 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 10 starts this season, allowing 32 earned runs and 11 homers in 41 2/3 innings.

Bryce Elder has been much better this season than last season, but he is due some regression as these numbers with a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 10 starts are unsustainable for him.  Elder has allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 13 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Washington.

The OVER is 3-0-1 in four meetings between the Braves and Nationals this season with 9 or more combined runs in all four, and 13 or more in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Marlins OVER 7.5

One of the best-kept secrets in baseball is that the Miami Marlins are 110-75 OVER in all home games over the last three seasons. They are scoring 4.3 runs per game and allowing 4.7 runs per game this season.  The Marlins are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all nine games.

The Mets are 7-2-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those games.  They are getting healthier and heating up at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in six of those 10 games.  They are averaging 6.5 runs per game in those 10 games.

Tobias Myers will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Brewers as they make this a bullpen game.  He is 0-1 with a 3.41 ERA allowing 5 homers in 29 innings.

Eury Perez is 2-6 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 10 starts for the Marlins, allowing 31 earned runs and 10 homers in 52 1/3 innings.  Perez has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 innings in his last three starts against the Mets.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* A's/Angels MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

The A's really profile as an OVER team this season scoring 4.5 runs per game and allowing 4.6 runs per game.  The Angels are allowing 5.3 runs per game with one of the worst staffs in baseball.  This total of 8 is too low tonight.

Luis Severino is 2-5 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He has allowed 27 earned runs, 7 homers and 86 base runners in 54 2/3 innings.  He's backed by a poor A's bullpen with a 4.51 ERA this season.

Jose Soriano has allowed 11 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in his last two home starts.  Soriano has allowed 13 earned runs and 4 homers in 8 innings in his last two starts against the A's to fall to 1-2 with a 7.81 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in six career starts against them.  He's backed by an even worse Angels bullpen with a 5.55 ERA this season.

The OVER is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between the A's and Angels with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 15 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Cavs/Knicks Game 2 No-Brainer on New York -6

I was on the Cavs +7.5 in Game 1 and it was the worst beat I've suffered in the NBA in a very long time.  Leading by 22 with under 8 minutes remaining, the Cavs blew that 22-point lead and lost by 11 in OT, getting outscored 44-11 over the final 12-plus minutes.

It's the type of loss that will be tough for the Cavs to recover from heading into Game 2, and the type of loss that can beat them twice.  It's also a very tired Cavs team coming off two straight 7-game series with the Raptors and Pistons.  They only had one day off prior to this series with the Knicks, so they won't have anything left in the tank for them tonight.  Mobley, Harden and Mitchell all played over 40 minutes in Game 1.

A big reason I faded the Knicks in Game 1 is because I thought they'd be rusty with 8 days off since sweeping the 76ers last series.  They certainly showed that rust opening just 2-of-19 from 3.  But they finally got a rhythm in the 4th quarter, and now they carry that momentum into Game 2 tonight.  This is where that extra rest in between series pays major dividends for them.

The Knicks found something in the 4th quarter that is going to be there for them all series as long as James Harden continues to play big minutes, which he will.  They got Harden to switch onto Brunson almost every trip down the court in the 4th quarter and OT.  He is the worst defender left in the playoffs.  Donovan Mitchell was also hobbled with a knee injury in the 4th quarter that didn't get much attention on the broadcast, but it's a big reason he was a non-factor down the stretch.

I expect the Knicks to shoot it much better than they did in Game 1 and to run away with this one.  The Knicks are now 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight playoff games winning all eight by 6 points or more, and seven of them by double-digits.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Braves/Marlins OVER 7.5

One of the best-kept secrets in baseball is that the Miami Marlins are 109-75 OVER in all home games over the last three seasons and 74-45 OVER as a home underdog.  This total of 7.5 is too short tonight.

The Braves have arguably the most potent offense in baseball scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  And they have been without their best hitter in Ronald Acuna Jr. for a couple weeks, but he made his return from injury in this series.  The Marlins are scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 4.6 runs per game this season.

No doubt Spencer Strider has looked solid in his own return from injury with a 2.45 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in three starts.  But control has been an issue with 10 walks in 14 2/3 innings, and he has also been on a pitch count.  I think he's getting too much respect here.

Sandy Alcantara is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He went 11-12 with a 5.36 ERA in 31 starts last season.  He is 3-2 with a 3.68 ERA in 10 starts this season.  He is 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts against the Braves, allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 18 innings.

The OVER is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings between the Marlins and Braves with 9 or more combined runs in all eight.  They have combined for at least 8 runs in 11 of their last 12 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Nationals OVER 8.5

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 32-15-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.6 runs per game and allowing 5.9 runs per game.  They just went for 14, 15 and 16 combined runs with the Reds in their three games series, and 16 combined runs with the Orioles in Game 2 and 10 combined runs in Game 3 last series.  

They went for 23 combined runs with the Mets in Game 1, 15 runs in Game 2 and 12 runs in Game 3.  So they have gone for 10 or more combined runs in eight of their last nine games, and this total of 8.5 is too short for a game involving Washington right now.

The Mets are 7-1-1 OVER in their last nine games overall.  They are getting healthier and heating up at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in six of those nine games.  They are averaging 7.0 runs per game in those nine games.

David Peterson is an absolute gas can for the Mets.  He is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.57 WHIP this season, allowing 26 earned runs and 68 base runners in 43 1/3 innings.  He is coming off his worst start of the season against the Nationals on April 29th, allowing 7 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of a 14-2 loss.

Cade Cavalli is 2-2 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 10 starts for the Nationals this season.  He has allowed 28 runs, 21 earned, and 72 base runners in 46 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a poor Washington bullpen with a 5.03 ERA this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington Nationals +100

The Washington Nationals are one of the most underrated teams in the majors.  They are 25-25 this season backed by a potent lineup that is scoring 5.6 runs per game.  They face a banged up Mets lineup that is missing several key players and has been a big reason for their struggles at 21-28 this season.

The Nationals have a big advantage on the mound today.  Cade Cavalli is 2-2 with a 4.05 ERA and 52 K's in 46 2/3 innings this season.  He is 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA in five home starts.  He has dominated the Mets, going 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA in two career starts against them, allowing just 2 earned runs in 11 innings with 13 K's.

David Peterson is an absolute gas can for the Mets.  He is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.57 WHIP this season, allowing 26 earned runs and 68 base runners in 43 1/3 innings.  He is coming off his worst start of the season against the Nationals on April 29th, allowing 7 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of a 14-2 loss.  Washington will crush him again today.  Bet the Nationals Thursday.

20* A's/Angels MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on A's -118

The A's should be bigger favorites over the faltering Angels tonight.  The Angels are just 6-22 in their last 28 games overall while scoring 2 runs or fewer in 18 of those 28 games.  The A's have outscored the Angels 15-8 and out hit them 22 to 12 thus far in this series.  It should be more of the same tonight.

The A's have a big advantage on the mound with Aaron Civale, who is 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA in nine starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in five road starts.  Civale is 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his last three starts against the Angels, allowing 5 earned runs and 13 base runners in 17 1/3 innings.  He is 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three career starts in Los Angeles.

Jack Kochanowicz has been absolutely rocked in his last two starts, allowing 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings.  He is 0-1 with an 11.25 ERA and 2.63 WHIP in two career starts against the A's, allowing 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 21 base runners in 8 innings.  Bet the A's Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder were certainly rusty in Game 1 when they lost outright to the San Antonio Spurs.  I was on the Spurs in Game 1 for the rust factor, but now I'm on the Thunder in Game 2 as they should be much sharper in the 2nd game back from having a week off since sweeping the Lakers.

The Thunder also had to implement Jalen Williams back into the lineup which was an adjustment after he missed all but the first two games of the playoffs.  Williams had 26 points in his return in Game 1, and the Thunder are a much more potent team with him than without him.  Look for their role players to step it up more in Game 2 tonight too.

This is where the extra rest will work in OKC's favor.  These teams are coming off a double-OT Game 1.  The Thunder won't feel the effects from it after getting a week off prior.  They are also one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  The spot really favors the Thunder tonight.

The Spurs only had two games off since beating the Timberwolves in six games.  It didn't affect them for Game 1, but it will surely affect them for Game 2 considering how many minutes their starters played in Game 1.  Vasssell played 50 minutes, Cassell 49, Wembenyama 48, Harper 46 and Champaignie 44.  Keldon Johnson was their biggest contributor off the bench.  They were without De'Aaron Fox for Game 1 and he may sit Game 2 as well with an ankle injury now that they won Game 1.  Bet the Thunder in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* Brewers/Cubs NL Central ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -113

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing the first two games in this series to the Milwaukee Brewers, who have overtaken them for 1st place in the NL Central.  The Cubs will be desperate to avoid the sweep and I like their chances of taking Game 3 as a short home favorite.

Edward Caberara is 3-1 with a 4.06 ERA in nine starts this season, including 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA in five home starts.  Cabrera has owned the Brewers, going 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing just 3 earned runs and 12 base runners in 15 innings.

Kyle Harrison is clearly due some regression after opening 4-1 with a 2.09 ERA in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.51 ERA in three road starts.  He has a 4.01 ERA for his career in the big leagues.  The Cubs are hitting .270 and scoring 5.0 runs per 9 innings against left-handed pitchers this season.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mets/Nationals OVER 9.5

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 31-15-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.9 runs per game.  They just went for 14, 15 and 16 combined runs with the Reds in their three games series, and 16 combined runs with the Orioles in Game 2 and 10 combined runs in Game 3 last series.  

They went for 23 combined runs with the Mets in Game 1 and 15 runs in Game 2.  So they have gone for 10 or more combined runs in seven of their last eight games, and this total of 9.5 is too short for a game involving Washington right now.  Especially with it being hot again tonight in Washington DC with temps in the 80's.

The Mets are 6-1-1 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They are getting healthier and heating up at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in six of those eight games.  They are averaging 7.4 runs per game in those eight games.  Both bullpens are taxed tonight after going 12 innings in Game 1.

Zach Thornton will be making his MLB debut tonight for the Mets and I don't expect it to go well for him.  He'll be opposed by one of the worst starters in baseball in Zack Littell, who is 2-4 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in six starts and three relief appearances this season.  Littell has allowed 28 earned runs and a whopping 14 homers in 41 1/3 innings.  Littell allowed 8 runs, 4 earned, and 2 homers in 3 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Mets this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Rangers/Rockies MLB Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas -119

The Texas Rangers have outscored the Rockies 16-7 and out hit them 26 to 10 thus far in this series.  It should be more of the same today given their big advantage on the mound and at the plate in this one.  They have scored 6 runs or more in five of their last seven games overall.

Jack Leiter has been solid with a 4.35 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in nine starts this season with 55 K's in 49 2/3 innings.  Leiter allowed one earned run in 6 innings of a 4-1 win over the Rockies in his lone career start against them.  He is backed by the best bullpen in baseball with Texas having a 2.92 ERA as a bullpen this season.

Kyle Freeland is 1-5 with a 7.22 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-2 with an 8.79 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in three home starts.  Freeland has allowed a whopping 23 earned runs and 6 homers in 18 innings in his last four starts.  He has allowed 11 runs, 8 earned, in 8 innings in his last two starts against Texas.  Bet the Rangers Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Knicks Game 1 No-Brainer on Cleveland +7.5

I backed the Spurs in Game 1 last night against the Thunder largely because I thought the Thunder would be rusty after having a week off.  It came to fruition as the Spurs led nearly wire to wire and pulled off the upset in double-OT.

The Knicks figure to be even more rusty than the Thunder.  They have had to sit around since their last game on May 10th to wait for the Cavs/Pistons series to get over in 7 games.  The extra rest couldn't have come at a worst time for the Knicks as they were playing their best basketball of the season going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

I also think the Knicks are now getting too much respect after that run against two overmatched teams in the Hawks and 76ers.  Now they take a big step up in class here against the Cavaliers, a team that played them very tough in the regular season.  They lost by 2 and 8 in New York, while winning by 15 in their lone game in Cleveland.  That was also the only game since trading for James Harden, and the Cavs won by 15.

I normally would look to fade a team coming off a Game 7 like the Cavaliers.  But they made such easy work of the Pistons in a 125-94 win on Sunday that I think they'll still be very fresh for this Game 1 tonight.  I think that momentum from a Game 7 win on the road carries over into Game 1 at Madison Square Garden tonight.  

This series and specifically Game 1 is much closer than this 7.5-point spread would indicate.  The Cavs are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Knicks, so this is clearly a great matchup for them.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Mets/Nationals OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Mets and Nationals tonight.  Temps will be in the 90's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Washington DC.

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 30-15-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.9 runs per game.  They just went for 14, 15 and 16 combined runs with the Reds in their three games series, and 16 combined runs with the Orioles in Game 2 and 10 combined runs in Game 3 last series.  They went for 23 combined runs with the Mets last night.  So they have gone for 10 or more combined runs in six of their last seven games, and this total of 8.5 is too short for a game involving Washington right now.

The Mets are 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They are getting healthier and heating up at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in five of those seven games.  They are averaging 7.6 runs per game in those seven games.  Both bullpens are taxed tonight after going 12 innings last night.

Nolan McClean and Foster Griffin are both getting too much respect here with this total of 8.5.  Both are due some regression, and both will likely struggle given the favorable forecast for hitters tonight.  The Nationals have a 5.09 ERA as a bullpen and the Mets have good numbers, but they won't have many of their best arms available tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Blue Jays and Yankees tonight.  Temps will be in the 90's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Blue Jays and Yankees with 11 or more combined runs in four of those five games.  These teams combined for 13 runs in Game 1 yesterday, and it should be more of the same tonight.

The Yankees have one of the best lineups in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game this season.  They have been much better at home scoring 6.6 runs per game at Yankee Stadium.  I trust they will get to Dylan Cease, who is 1-2 with a 5.34 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees, allowing 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 32 innings.

Will Warren comes in scuffling allowing 8 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles and Rangers.  Warren was rocked for 8 earned runs, 2 homers and 14 base runners in 4 innings of an 11-9 loss to the Blue Jays in his lone career start against them, which came last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Phillies OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Reds and Phillies tonight.  Temps will be in the 90's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center in Philadelphia.

The Reds are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 9 or more combined runs in all seven games.  They have scored a total of 44 runs in those seven games and are red hot at the plate right now, scoring 6.3 runs per game.  The Phillies are also hot at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in 14 of their last 24 games overall.

Chase Burns is due some regression after opening 5-1 with a 1.87 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in nine starts for the Reds this season.  But he has allowed 6 homers this season, and this looks like one of his toughest tests yet.  He is backed by an awful Cincinnati bullpen with a 5.06 ERA this season.

Jesus Luzardo is 3-3 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Luzardo has been terrible at home, going 1-3 with an 8.65 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five starts while allowing 25 earned runs and 4 homers in 26 innings.  Luzardo allowed 6 runs, 5 earned, and 9 base runners in 2 innings of a 9-6 loss to the Reds in his last start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Braves/Marlins OVER 8

One of the best-kept secrets in baseball is that the Miami Marlins are 107-75 OVER in all home games over the last three seasons and 72-45 OVER as a home underdog.  This total of 8 is too short this afternoon.

The Braves have arguably the most potent offense in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  And they have been without their best hitter in Ronald Acuna Jr. for a couple weeks, but he makes his return to the lineup today.  The Marlins are scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 4.5 runs per game this season.

35-year-old Martin Perez is due some major regression.  He is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA this season, but he is a contact pitcher who will get rocked by the Marlins today.  He allowed 2 homers to the Marlins in his last start against them.

Braxton Garrett is 16-20 with a 4.15 ERA in 64 career starts in the big leagues.  He has been forced into the rotation due to injuries, and he was rocked for 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 1 1/3 innings by the Twins in his first and only start this season.  HIs last start was all the way back in 2024.  Garrett allowed 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 4 1/3 innings in a 14-6 loss to the Brave sin his last start against them.

The OVER is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between the Marlins and Braves with 9 or more combined runs in all six.  They have combined for at least 8 runs in nine of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 1 No-Brainer on San Antonio +7

The San Antonio Spurs went 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in five meetings with the Oklahoma City Thunder this season.  That includes their win over the Thunder in the NBA Cup, and they also won twice in OKC outright as underdogs.  The Spurs are clearly the toughest matchup for the Thunder and their biggest contenders to win the title this season.

The amazing part about the Spurs' domination of the Thunder was the fact that Victor Wembenyama was not fully healthy for most of those meetings and actually came off the bench in three of them.  Now Wembenyama is fully healthy for the playoffs and showing what he is capable of.  He is putting up 20.3 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.1 blocks per game in only 28.8 minutes per game due to injuries and blowouts.

This is the classic rest vs. rust factor.  The Spurs are still in a rhythm after beating the Timberwolves in six games and have had two days off since that series.  I think it's an advantage for them at least for Game 1 tonight that they remain in a rhythm.

The Thunder have been off since May 11th, getting a full week of rest in between series.  I think that's too much.  I also think they couldn't have had an easier path to the Western Conference Finals, so this will be a shock to the system for them having to face the Spurs.  They beat a Suns team that was beat up and missing several key players, and a Lakers team that was also beat up and missing Luka Doncic.  The Spurs will be fully healthy, and they are a dangerous team when that's the case.  Bet the Spurs in Game 1 Monday.

15* MLB Monday Night Line Mistake on Brewers/Cubs OVER 10.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10.5 ticket between the Brewers and Cubs tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.

The Cubs are scoring 5.1 runs per game while the Brewers are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season as two of the best offenses in the National League.  The Cubs just went for 15, 11 and 17 combined runs with the White Sox last series.

The Cubs should stay hot at the plate against Brandon Sproat, who is 1-2 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in six starts and two relief appearances this season.  He has allowed 23 earned runs, 8 homers and 55 base runners in 36 innings.

Shota Imanaga has been solid this season, but he does not enjoy facing the Brewers.  Imanaga is 1-4 with a 6.57 ERA in five career starts against the Brewers, allowing 18 earned runs and 7 homers in 24 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Red Sox/Royals OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Red Sox and Royals tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 20 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at Kauffman Stadium.  They also moved the fences in this season to aid runs.

Sonny Gray is 1-1 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in three road starts this season.  He has allowed 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 23 base runners in 13 innings on the highway.  Gray allowed 3 earned runs and one homer in 6 innings in his last start against Kansas City.

Seth Lugo is 0-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in five home starts this season.  He has allowed 14 earned runs and 45 base runners in 28 2/3 innings.  Lugo does not enjoy facing the Red Sox, going 0-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in three career starts against them, allowing 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 27 base runners in 16 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Nationals OVER 10

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket between the Mets and Nationals tonight.  Temps will be in the 90's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Washington DC.

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 29-15-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.7 runs per game.  They just went for 14, 15 and 16 combined runs with the Reds in their three games series, and 16 combined runs with the Orioles in Game 2 and 10 combined runs in Game 3 last series.  So they have gone for 10 or more combined runs in five of their last six games.

The Mets are 4-1-1 OVER in their last six games overall.  They are getting healthier and heating up at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in four of those six games.  They should stay hot against Jake Irvin, who is 1-4 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-3 with a 7.58 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in four home starts.

Irvin has allowed 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Mets.  He'll be opposed by Christian Scott, who is more of a long relief guy than a starter, and the Mets have a tired bullpen after their last series with the Yankees. Scott allowed 4 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in his lone career start against the Nationals.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Phillies OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Reds and Phillies tonight.  Temps will be in the 90's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Philadelphia.

The Reds are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall going for 11 or more combined runs in all six games.  They have scored a total of 40 runs in those six games and are red hot at the plate right now, scoring 6.7 runs per game.  The Phillies are also hot at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in 14 of their last 23 games overall.

Nick Lodolo is 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 15 base runners in 9 1/3 innings.  Lodolo has allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 11 innings in his last two starts against Philadelphia.  He is backed by an awful Cincinnati bullpen with a 5.03 ERA this season.

Andrew Painter is the biggest weak link in this Philadelphia rotation.  He is 1-4 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He has allowed 26 earned runs, 7 homers and 60 base runners in 37 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs/Pistons UNDER 206.5

Winner-take-all Game 7's in the NBA Playoffs tend to be much lower-scoring.  That's especially the case in the 2nd round of the playoffs or later.  And this Game 7 between the Pistons and Cavs will be no different tonight.

Detroit is a defensive-minded team so it's no surprised that Detroit home games would be 5-2 UNDER if not for OT in these playoffs.  That includes 3-0 UNDER in this series if not for the one OT in Game 5 that was sitting at 206 combined points at the end of regulation.

The Pistons shot 52.4% from the field and 44.4% from 3-point range in Game 6 and it still stayed UNDER the total in Cleveland.  They clearly aren't going to shoot that well again.  Defensively, they have figured out the Cavs and have held them to 45% or worse shooting from the field in five of six games in this series.

Officials tend to swallow the whistle even more in Game 7's and let the players decide the game on the court.  That will lead to less FT attempts for both teams tonight.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, and defensive intensity will be maxed out with what's at stake.  I don't expect either team to top 100 points tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Royals/Cardinals OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Royals and Cardinals today.  It's going to be hot and humid with temps will be in the 90's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in St. Louis this afternoon.

The Cardinals are scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 4.5 runs per game this season.  The Royals are allowing 4.6 runs per game.  But the Royals are heating up at the plate scoring at least 5 runs in five of their last 11 games overall, and 4 or more seven times.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 9 or more combined runs four times.

Stephen Kolek will be making just his 3rd start of the season for the Royals.  He is 1-0 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts, allowing 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a poor Kansas City bullpen with a 4.50 ERA this season.

Andre Pallante is 4-3 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in eight starts for the Cardinals this season.  He has been at his worst at home, going 1-3 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in four starts while allowing 14 earned runs, 3 homers and 33 base runners in 21 1/3 innings.  Pallante allwed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-7 loss to the Royals in his last start against them.  This St. Louis bullpen is also bad with a 4.53 ERA this season.

The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between the Royals and Cardinals with 10 or more combined runs in eight of those 12 meetings, and 9 or more in nine of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Reds/Guardians OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Reds and Guardians today.  Temps will be approaching 80 with lights winds blowing out to center in Cleveland.  The Reds beat the Guardians 7-6 for 13 combined runs in Game 1, while Cleveland came back for a 7-4 win in Game 2 and 11 combined runs.  It was a similar forecast for both games and it should be another slug fest in Game 3 today.

The Reds are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall going for 11 or more combined runs in all five games.  They have scored a total of 37 runs in those five games and are red hot at the plate right now.  The Guardians have scored at least 4 runs in five of their last six games, and 6 runs or more in five of their last nine games.

The Guardians should crush Brady Singer, who is 2-3 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Singer has allowed 27 earned runs, 11 homers and 70 base runners in 42 innings.  He is backed by a poor Cincinnati bullpen with a 4.89 ERA this season.

Gavin Williams has had a propensity to give up the long ball this season.  He has allowed 23 earned runs and 8 homers in 55 1/3 innings with a 3.74 ERA.  Williams has allowed 5 earned runs or more in three of his last four starts as he's really scuffling coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Yankees/Mets MLB No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the New York Yankees and New York Mets today.  It's going to be hot and humid at Citi Field with temps in the 80's and 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six.

The Yankees are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season as one of the best offenses in baseball.  The Mets have gotten healthier recently and are starting to hit again as a result.  They have scored a total of 30 runs in their last five games, averaging 6.0 runs per game.

Elmer Rodriquez-Cruz will be making just his 3rd start of the season today.  He is 0-1 with a 5.19 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in two starts, allowing 5 earned runs and 18 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.

Freddy Peralta is 3-3 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-2 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in six home starts.  Peralta allowed 2 homers in 5 innings in his lone start against the Yankees last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Orioles/Nationals OVER 10

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10 ticket between the Orioles and Nationals today.  It's going to be very hot and humid with temps in the 80's and the ball should be flying out again today as a result.

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 29-15-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.7 runs per game.  They just went for 14, 15 and 16 combined runs with the Reds in their three games last series, and 16 combined runs with the Orioles in Game 2 yesterday.

The Baltimore Orioles are 15-9-1 OVER in their last 25 games overall.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 15 of those 25 games.  They are allowing 5.4 runs per game this season with a terrible rotation and bullpen.  The Orioles have a 4.51 ERA as a bullpen while the Nationals have a 4.83 ERA.

Brandon Young is 4-8 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 17 career starts in the big leagues for the Orioles.  The Nationals will go with opener Richard Lovelady before giving way to one of the worst starters in baseball in Miles Mikolas.  He is 1-3 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in six starts and three relief appearances following openers this season.  Runs will be plentiful today with these two gas cans on the mound.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.