15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on New York Mets -109

The New York Mets are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday. They have a huge edge on the mound in this one, but that's not being reflected in this line like it should be.

Jon Niese has been at his best at home this season for New York, going 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four home starts. Also, Niese is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in three career starts against Pittsburgh, and his teams are 3-0 in those games having never lost.

Francisco Liriano makes his season debut for the Pirates today, and he is simply getting way too much respect from oddsmakers. In his last two seasons, Liriano has gone 9-10 with a 5.09 ERA in 2011, and 6-12 with a 5.34 ERA in 2012. He's clearly washed up.

Niese is 12-2 (+11.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday in his career. His teams are winning 6.2 to 2.4 on average in this spot. The Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 4-0 in Niese's last 4 starts as a favorite. Roll with the Mets Saturday.

20* Spurs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +2.5

The San Antonio Spurs should not be an underdog to the Golden State Warriors in Game 3 Friday. After losing Game 2, I look for the Spurs to come out with a sense of urgency to try and regain home-court advantage with a Game 3 victory.

San Antonio has been one of the best road teams in the league all season at 25-18. The Spurs are 51-14 SU in their last 65 meetings with the Warriors, including 21-11 in their last 32 visits to Golden State.

This play falls into a system that is 24-6 (80%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days.

San Antonio is a deadly 11-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. It has come back to win in this spot 107.8 to 95.8, or by an average of 12.0 points/game. Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -114

The San Francisco Giants should be a much heavier home favorite over the Atlanta Braves Friday night with ace Matt Cain on the mound. Rarely will you get Cain at this kind of price at home, and I'll gladly take advantage tonight.

Cain got off to a slow start this season, which is why he is being undervalued here. However, he came up with his best start of the season last time out, yielding just one earned run over 7 1/3 innings to get the win in a 4-3 home victory over the Dodgers.

Tim Hudson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The right-hander, who is far past his prime, has posted a 5.29 ERA in three road starts in 2013. Cain is 3-2 with a 2.68 ERA in seven career starts against Atlanta.

The Giants are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. San Francisco is 40-18 in its last 58 during game 2 of a series. The Giants are 24-8 in Cains last 32 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Take San Francisco Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Indians +181

The Cleveland Indians are showing perhaps their best value of the season as a massive road underdog to the Detroit Tigers tonight. Cleveland is one of the most underrated teams in the league, while Detroit is one of the most overrated.

Cleveland comes in as the hottest team in baseball, yet it is getting no respect from oddsmakers here. The Indians have won 10 of their last 11 games overall to get to 18-4 on the season. Quietly, they have scored 6 or more runs in eight of those 11 contests.

Corey Kluber is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in two starts and two relief appearances in 2013.

Max Scherzer is being way overvalued in this one. Detroit's right-hander has posted a 6.23 ERA in three home starts this season. Scherzer sports a 5.26 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 11 career starts against Cleveland. He has given up 9 earned runs and 21 base runners over 9 1/3 innings in his last two home starts against the Indians.

Cleveland is 18-6 (+12.0 Units) against the money line after a win by 6 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog. Roll with Cleveland Friday.

15* NL Thursday Mound Mismatch on Philadelphia Phillies +110

The Philadelphia Phillies clearly have the edge on the mound in Game 1 of this series with the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. They should be the favorite, not the underdog as a result.

Cole Hamels remains one of the best starters in the league. Sure, he got off to a slow start this season, but he has returned to form of late. Hamels has posted a 2.05 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in his last three starts.

Pat Corbin is off to a hot start for Arizona, and he's being overvalued as a result. He'll come back down to reality as the season goes on. Hamels is 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in seven career starts against Arizona. The Phillies are 6-1 in those seven games.

Hamels is 30-7 (+19.3 Units) against the money line in May games since 1997. The Phillies are 13-3 in Hamels' last 16 starts vs. National League West. Philly is 7-1 in its last 8 games vs. NL West opponents. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Diamondbacks are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Phillies Thursday.

20* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -110

I look for the New York Mets to crush the Pittsburgh Pirates at home in Game 1 of this series Thursday. Jeff Locke is getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this one folks.

I'll gladly back New York starter Dillon Gee, who has posted a 2.50 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in three home starts this season. Gee is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh. His teams are a perfect 3-0 in those games having never lost.

Locke has faced the Mets once in his career, and it didn't go well. He gave up 5 earned runs and 10 base runners over 3 2/3 innings of a 0-6 loss at New York on September 26th of 2012.

Locke is 0-6 (-8.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are 92-187 in their last 279 games as a road underdog. The Mets are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a home favorite. New York is 20-7 in its last 27 home meetings with Pittsburgh. Bet the Mets Thursday.

15* AL Thursday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Minnesota Twins +143

The Minnesota Twins are one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. They have quietly compiled a 15-15 record this season while profiting $1,000/game bettors $5,600.

Boston is undervalued once again tonight as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox, who are overvalued due to their 21-13 start. There's no doubt that the Twins have the edge on the mound in this one, and they shouldn't be the underdog as a result.

Kevin Correia is the definition of underrated. The right-hander has gone 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.137 WHIP through six starts this season for Minnesota. John Lackey is washed up for Boston, though he's 1-2 with a respectable 3.52 ERA and 1.435 WHIP through three starts this season.

Boston is 13-30 (-21.9 Units) against the money line vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Twins are 7-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Red Sox are 9-25 (-19.9 Units) against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 8-21 in its last 29 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Roll with the Twins Thursday.

25* NBA Second Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Spurs UNDER 205

I'm siding with the UNDER in this Game 2 between the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors as my best total for the entire second round of the playoffs. I successfully cashed in the OVER in Game 1, but I'm going in the other way in Game 2.

After a high-scoring, 129-127 double-overtime victory in Game 1, the books have been forced to set this number higher than it should be. The total was set at 201 for Game 1, and now it's been jacked all the way up to 205, providing us with excellent line value on the UNDER.

Golden State shot lights out in Game 1 at 51.0% behind Stephon Curry's amazing shooting display. He put in 44 points, and there's no way the Warriors light it up again like they did in Game 1 as San Antonio makes the proper adjustments.

Both teams were simply gassed after playing a double-overtime game. I believe that will carry over into this Game 2 as nearly really looks to run the floor like they normally would. I look for this to be a half-court game, and for the shooting to be off due to the tired legs.

This play falls into a system that is 43-12 (78.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

San Antonio is 8-1 to the UNDER in home games after scoring 110 points or more this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Yankees/Rockies Interleague No-Brainer on New York +121

The New York Yankees are showing solid value as a road underdog to the Colorado Rockies tonight. After losing Game 1 of this interleague series 2-0, I look for them to bounce back with a victory in Game 2.

Juan Nicasio is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. He is 3-0 despite a 4.91 ERA and 1.534 WHIP through six starts this season. Nicasio has also posted a 5.79 ERA and 1.501 WHIP in two home starts this year.

Colorado is 1-11 (-11.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series. The Yankees are 4-0 in David Phelps' last 4 starts. The Rockies are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. These four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing New York. Take the Yankees Wednesday.

15* Interleague Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Rangers +106

The Texas Rangers should not be an underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. After losing Game 1 of this interleague series to the Brewers 3-6, I look for the Rangers to bounce back behind red hot starter Derek Holland.

The left-hander has been dominant this season, going 2-2 with a 2.74 ERA and 0.937 WHIP over six starts in 2013. While Kyle Lohse is off to a decent start this season for Milwaukee, he is 3-3 with a 7.28 ERA and 1.766 WHIP in 10 career starts against Texas.

Holland is 15-3 (+11.4 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 69-27 in their last 96 games following a loss. The Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Rangers Wednesday.

15* Interleague Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -113

The Chicago White Sox have a big edge on the mound tonight. After losing to the Mets 1-0 last night behind a brilliant effort from Matt Harvey, I look for them to bounce back in Game 2 behind Jake Peavy.

The former Cy Young winner has returned to form over the past couple of seasons. Peavy is 3-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in five starts this year, including 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in his last three starts. He is also 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA in 10 career starts against New York.

Jeremy Hefner is no match for Peavy. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 4.34 ERA in five starts and one relief appearance in 2013. In fact, the Mets are 0-6 in games that he has appeared in this season. I look for that trend to continue tonight. Take the White Sox Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland A's +105

After losing the first two games of this series to Cleveland, the Oakland A's will be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday in Game 3. I like their chances of getting a win considering the edge they have on the mound in this one.

A.J. Griffin is a much better starter than he gets credit for, going 3-2 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in six starts this season. He has never faced Cleveland, which is a huge advantage for him.

Justin Masterson got off to a fast start this year, but he has really come back down to reality, going 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA in his last two starts. Masterson is 1-5 with a 10.36 ERA and 2.128 WHIP in six career starts against Oakland. He gave up 19 earned runs over 14 2/3 innings in three starts against the A's in 2012.

The A's are 9-0 in Griffin's last 9 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Oakland is 17-5 in Griffin's last 22 starts overall. The A's are 7-2 in Griffin's last 9 starts as a road underdog. Bet Oakland Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami Marlins +162

The Miami Marlins are showing some of their best value of the season as a big road underdog to the San Diego Padres tonight. San Diego (14-18) doesn't have any business being this heavily favored against any team in this league.

That's especially the case tonight considering the edge that Miami has on the mound. Alex Sanabia is just 2-4 with a 4.67 ERA in all starts this year, but he's 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA in three road starts, pitching his best away from home.

Eric Stults has been simply atrocious for San Diego, going 2-2 with a 5.08 ERA in all starts, and 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two home starts. Stults is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two career starts against the Marlins as well.

Miami is 24-12 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in road games in May games over the last 3 seasons. The Marlins are 26-17 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Marlins Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 186.5

This Memphis vs. Oklahoma City series has defensive battle written all over it. With no Russell Westbrook, the Thunder are virtually forced to play a half-court game, which is exactly what Memphis likes.

These teams combined for 184 points in Game 1 with a 93-91 Oklahoma City victory. Memphis shot 42.7% while the Thunder were held to 41.2% shooting. I look for an even lower-scoring game in Game 2 tonight.

The UNDER is 20-6 in Grizzlies last 26 vs. NBA Northwest division opponents. The UNDER is 36-17 in Grizzlies last 53 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Thunder last 12 vs. NBA Southwest foes. The UNDER is 20-5-2 in Thunder last 27 games overall. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Thunder last 17 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -115

The Cincinnati Reds are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Atlanta Braves tonight given the edge they have on the mound. I look for a blowout victory for the home team as they bounce back from a loss in Game 1.

Homer Bailey is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander has posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in all starts this season, and he's 1-0 with a minscule 0.90 ERA and 0.850 WHIP in three home starts.

If that's not enough to wow you with this guy, then just take a look at his career numbers against Atlanta. Bailey is 2-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in three career starts against the Braves, and the Reds are a perfect 3-0 in those starts having never lost. Roll with the Reds Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Knicks TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on OVER 183

The books have once again missed their mark on the total in Game 2 of this series just as they did in Game 1. Indiana beat New York 102-95 in Game 1 for 197 combined points despite a total set of just 181.5.

What the public and thus the oddsmakers have failed to realize is that Indiana is no longer a slow-it-down, defensive team. That's evident by the fact that the Pacers are 9-3 to the OVER in their last 12 games overall. They have scored 100-plus points in 10 of their last 18 games as well.

We all know that the Knicks can fill it up as they are averaging 101.4 points/game at home this season. They managed 95 points in Game 1 despite shooting just 43.2% as a team, including 10-for-28 from Carmelo Anthony and 4-for-15 from J.R. Smith. I look for both Anthony and Smith to be much more efficient tonight, which will lead to 100-plus points for New York.

The OVER is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 Conference Semifinals games. The OVER is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games playing on 1 days rest. The OVER is 4-1 in Knicks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Phillies/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +135

The San Francisco Giants are in a huge letdown spot after sweeping the arch-rival Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend with three straight wins by exactly one run. Philadelphia is highly motivated for a victory after losing two in a row to the Marlins over the weekend.

These motivational factors, plus the fact that the Phillies have the edge on the mound, make for a great bet on undervalued road underdog tonight. Rarely will you ever get a starter of Cliff Lee's caliber at this kind of price.

Lee is 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.152 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in three road starts. The left-hander has been dominant in seven career starts against San Francisco, going 4-2 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.841 WHIP in seven starts.

The Phillies are 16-4 in Lee's last 20 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 5-0 in its last 5 vs. NL West opponents. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Giants are 0-5 in Bumgarner's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Phillies Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +166

The San Diego Padres have no business being this heavily favored over any team in this league. That includes the Miami Marlins, who have clearly struggled in the early going, but are finally starting to turn the corner.

Miami is coming off back-to-back wins over the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend. They won 2-0 Saturday before exploding for 14 runs in a 14-2 victory Sunday. I look for them to win three in a row behind Wade LeBlanc tonight.

"To keep adding on ... not only for the score, but for our guys, to stay hungry, and to keep grinding out at-bats and keep putting the pressure on, that's what we needed," manager Mike Redmond told the Marlins' official website. "For guys to go up and be a little greedy and take advantage was good to see."

Andrew Cashner has struggled in four relief appearances against Miami, posting an 11.57 ERA. San Diego is 1-11 (-10.9 Units) against the money line off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the Marlins Monday.

20* Warriors/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on OVER 201

The books have missed their mark badly in Game 1 of this series between Golden State and San Antonio. I believe there is a ton of value with the OVER tonight as both teams put up 100-plus in this one.

Golden State has been forced to play small ball due to injuries to a couple of their big men. As a result, it is more vulnerable defensively, and I look for San Antonio to put up a big number because of it. I don't believe the Warriors miss a beat offensively going small ball, though.

This play falls into a system that is 47-17 (73.4%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games.

Golden State is 29-16 to the OVER as an underdog this season. The OVER is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Warriors are 14-6 to the OVER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Dodgers/Giants ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +118

The Los Angeles Dodgers are highly motivated for a victory over their biggest rivals tonight on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. They lost the first two games of this series, so they certainly do not want to get swept by losing Game 3 as well.

I like Los Angeles' chances of getting a Game 3 victory considering the edge they have on the mound tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu is one of the most underrated starters in the game because not many know about this rookie.

Ryu is 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.142 WHIP through six starts this season. He'll be up against Matt Cain, who is 0-2 with a 6.49 ERA through six starts, including 0-1 with an 11.17 ERA through two home starts.

The Dodgers are 14-4 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games with triple revenge - 3 straight losses against opponent over the last 3 seasons. They are bouncing back to win in this spot 5.7 to 3.3 on average. Take the Dodgers Sunday.

20* Pacers/Knicks Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +5.5

The Indiana Pacers are the most underrated team left in the playoffs. That's once again evident as they are a 5.5-point underdog to the New York Knicks in Game 1 of this series Sunday.

I look for Indiana to win this game outright, but I'll take the points for some insurance. The Pacers have won three of their last five meetings with the Knicks.

Indiana is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 39% or less since 1996. The Pacers are 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) after 2 straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more since 1996. Bet the Pacers Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -128

With a huge edge on the mound tonight, I'll gladly back the Tampa Bay Rays as a small road favorite over the Colorado Rockies. David Price is in the prime of his career, while Jon Garland is washed up and doesn't belong in the big leagues any more.

The 2012 AL Cy Young winner has been below-average to this point of the season, which is why he is undervalued. However, Price has been solid in two recent starts, allowing six earned runs over 15 innings to the Yankees and White Sox.

Garland is 2-2 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.387 WHIP through five starts this season. It just goes to show how terrible the Rockies' rotation really is that they had to get Garland to start for them in 2013.

This play falls into a system that is 52-13 (80%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (COLORADO) - with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL). Roll with the Rays Saturday.

20* Bulls/Nets Game 7 No-Brainer on Chicago Money Line +256

The Chicago Bulls have been left for dead. Everyone has written them off after losing the last two games after taking a 3-1 series lead. This has been the most resilient team in the league over the last few years, and I look for them to win outright in Game 7.

Tom Thibodeau is the is the best motivator there is in the NBA. Thibodeau is 23-8 ATS off a home loss as the coach of Chicago. Thibodea is also 25-9 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Chicago.

The Bulls are actually coming back to win in this spot 97.6 to 88.9, or by an average of 8.7 points/game. Chicago is one of the best road teams in the league this season at 22-22 away from home. Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +130

The Boston Red Sox are showing awesome value as a road underdog to the Texas Rangers tonight. Boston has been the best team in the league at 20-9 this season.

The Red Sox will be highly motivated for a victory after losing Game 1 of this series 7-0 to the Rangers. I like their chances of bouncing back behind the underrated John Lackey, who is 1-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.258 WHIP through two starts this season.

Alexi Ogando is getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to a fast start this season. He has come back down to reality of late, though, going 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Red Sox are 6-0 in Lackey's last 6 starts with 5 days of rest. Boston is 6-1 in its last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Red Sox Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -133

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a massive edge on the mound tonight. Rarely will you ever get them at this kind of price with Clayton Kershaw on the mound, so I'm going to take advantage in Game 1 vs. San Francisco Friday.

The 2011 NL Cy Young winner is going after the award again in 2013. Kershaw is 3-2 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.912 WHIP with 47 strikeouts over 41 2/3 innings this season. The left-hander is 9-4 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 17 career starts against San Francisco.

Barry Zito is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to pitching well in the playoffs, and getting off to a solid start this year. However, Zito has finally come back down to reality of late, going 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.1724 WHIP over his last three starts.

The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Los Angeles is 38-14 in Kershaw's last 52 starts as a favorite. The Dodgers are 20-6 in Kershaw's last 26 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 5-1 in Kershaw's last 6 road starts vs. San Francisco. Bet the Dodgers Friday.

20* Thunder/Rockets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston -1

The Houston Rockets continue to get disrespected by oddsmakers in Game 6 tonight. They have been the better team in the last four games, and clearly in the last three since Russell Westbrook went down with injury.

I believe Houston has an excellent chance to become the first NBA team to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. They now have advantages all over the floor over Oklahoma City that they did not have when Westbrook was healthy.

Westbrook's absence forces Kevin Durant to play the point-forward position, which he is extremely uncomfortable in. The loss of Westbrook clearly shows how good of a player he really is, but it's not being reflected in the odds tonight.

Houston is 30-13 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.0 points/game. The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Oklahoma City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 meetings in Houston. Take the Rockets Friday.

25* Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers +6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing their best value of the entire series tonight as a 6.5-point road underdog in Game 6 to the Memphis Grizzlies. They aren't going to go down without a fight, not with Chris Paul running the show.

Yes, Memphis has owned this series for the last three games, but I look for Los Angeles to make the proper adjustments tonight. They haven't gotten anything from their bench as Chris Paul has had to do it all. I look for the bench and role players to finally step up and contribute with their season on the line.

Los Angeles is 39-24 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Clippers are 18-7 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons.

The Clippers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 2 days rest. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Memphis is simply overvalued tonight. Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -123

With the huge edge the Tampa Bay Rays have over the Colorado Rockies on the mound tonight, they should be a much heavier favorite in Game 1 of this interleague series. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at a great price.

Tampa Bay starter Matt Moore has arguably been the Cy Young in the American League to this point. The flame-throwing left-hander is 5-0 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.875 WHIP with 38 strikeouts in 32 innings over five starts this season.

Moore will be up against the washed-up Jeff Francis, who has simply been atrocious this season for Colorado. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 7.29 ERA and 1.952 WHIP in five starts this year, allowing 17 earned runs and 41 base runners over 21 innings.

Colorado is 0-9 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Rockies are 0-11 (-12.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons. These two trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Rays. Also, Tampa is 22-6 in its last 28 vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Rays Friday.

15* Celtics/Knicks ESPN Game 6 No-Brainer on Boston +2

The New York Knicks have awoken a sleeping giant. From J.R. Smith saying the series would be over if he had played in Game 4, to the black clothing the Knicks showed up in in Game 5 signifying Boston's funeral, they couldn't possibly be any more stupid.

Boston is a team that will never quit as long as Doc Rivers is head coach. This team will show even more fight than it did in Games 4 and 5 in Game 6 tonight in front of a raucous home crowd. I look for the Celtics to win Game 6, and to have an excellent chance to be the first team to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series.

Remember, New York hasn't won a playoff series since 2000, so all of the pressure is on the Knicks. It's not going to be easy to win in Boston where the Celtics are 28-14 SU & 23-18-1 ATS on the season.

The Celtics are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games. Boston is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Knicks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Conference Quarterfinals games. Roll with the Celtics Friday.

20* Nuggets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -1

The Golden State Warriors will close out this series with the Denver Nuggets tonight in Game 6. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series with Golden State being the only road team to win, and it did so emphatically with a 131-117 triumph in Game 2.

Oracle Arena is one of the best atmospheres in the league come playoff time. It has been a huge advantage for the Warriors all season as they are 30-13 at home on the year. It will be rockin' for Stephon Curry and company tonight.

There's a reason why Golden State is a perfect 5-0 ATS in this series. Denver is simply overvalued as it is getting treated like the team that it was in the regular season, and not the one that it is now. The Nuggets clearly miss Danilo Gallinari as they aren't the same dynamic team without him.

The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Golden State is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games overall. These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Golden State. Bet the Warriors Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +120

The Chicago White Sox should not be an underdog to the Texas Rangers tonight. They have a big edge on the mound with Jake Peavy over Justin Grimm, and I'll gladly take advantage and back them at this price because of it.

Peavy, the former Cy Young winner, has returned to form over the past two seasons. He's off to a 3-1 start with a 3.37 ERA and 1.125 WHIP with 39 strikeouts over 32 innings this season.

Justin Grimm is off to a solid start for Texas, but it's a bit misleading. He has faced Seattle twice and Minnesota once in his three starts this year, which are two of the worst lineups in baseball. He is raw and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.

Texas is 18-30 (-18.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons. The White Sox are 5-0 in Peavy's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. Chicago is 6-2 in its last 8 meetings with Texas. Take the White Sox Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -125

The Boston Red Sox should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Toronto Blue Jays. Boston (19-8) owns the best record in baseball, while Toronto (10-18) owns the second-worst record in the American League.

The Red Sox are hitting .276 and scoring 5.4 runs/game overall, including .295 and 6.5 runs/game on the road. The Blue Jays are hitting .228 and scoring 3.7 runs/game overall. Toronto is really missing Jose Reyes (ankle) right now.

Boston also has a huge edge on the mound in this one. Ryan Dempster has posted a 3.30 ERA and 1.113 WHIP with 43 strikeouts in 30 innings this season. While Dempster has been a proven winner throughout his career, Toronto's J.A. Happ hasn't done anything in the big leagues. That's why I'm not buying his decent start (3.86 ERA, 1.250 WHIP) to the season.

Happ is 9-24 (-13.0 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. The Red Sox are 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Boston is 6-1 in its 7 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Red Sox Thursday.

20* Rockets/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +8.5

The books have missed the mark badly on this Game 5 between the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder. The last three games in this series have been decided by a total of 8 points, which is less than tonight's spread of 8.5.

I'll gladly take advantage and back the Rockets, who are playing with nothing to lose the rest of the way after everyone counted them out down 3-0. The fact of the matter is that Houston could be the team up 3-1 right now had a couple more breaks gone their way.

Oklahoma City has no business being this heavily favored without Russell Westbrook. It is not nearly as dynamic without him, which will make it hard for the Thunder to cover this inflated number tonight even if they do win.

The Rockets are 102-64 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1996. Houston is 21-9 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* Hawks/Pacers NBA TV No-Brainer on Indiana -7

Home-court advantage has simply been huge in this series between Indiana and Atlanta. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings, winning by double-digits each time. I look for that trend to continue in Game 5 Wednesday.

The home team has now won eight straight meetings between these teams dating back to the regular season. Indiana is 32-11 at home this season where it is outscoring its opponents by an average of 8.1 points/game.

Atlanta is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 playoff road games. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Pacers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

The home team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings. The favorite is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings. Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +108

The Washington Nationals are highly motivated for a victory over the Atlanta Braves tonight. They have lost nine straight in this series dating back to last season, and they DO NOT want the streak to reach double-digits tonight.

I like the Nationals' chances of putting an end to the skid considering the huge edge they have on the mound in this one. Jordan Zimmerman is one of the most underrated starters in the league, going 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.861 WHIP in five starts this season.

Zimmerman is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA in five career starts against Atlanta, while Paul Maholm is 2-6 with a 4.91 ERA in 11 career starts against Washington. Maholm is also 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings.

Zimmerman is 14-2 (+10.9 Units) against the money line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. Zimmerman is 20-5 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Nationals Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -130

Cliff Lee has been one of the best starters in the entire league this season. That's nothing new considering he's been one of the best ever since winning the Cy Young a few years back. I'll gladly back him at this price against the Cleveland Indians tonight.

Philadelphia has a massive edge on the mound with Lee over Cleveland rookie Trevor Bauer. Lee is 2-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA and 0.533 WHIP in two road starts.

Bauer will be making just his second start of the season. His first did not go too well as he allowed 3 earned runs and 9 base runners (7 walks) in a 0-6 loss at Tampa Bay on April 6th. He clearly showed some nerves walking 7 batters in the loss.

The Phillies are embarrassed from their 14-2 loss last night and they want to get revenge tonight. Philadelphia is 10-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is 1-11 (-10.2 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base over the last 2 seasons. Take the Phillies Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Knicks TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +9

After falling behind 3-0, the Boston Celtics could have easily quit. Instead, they scratched out a hard-fought overtime victory in Game 4, and they're certainly not about to pack it in now.

Boston will be motivated by J.R. Smith's comments in which he said if he played in Game 4, this series would have been over. The Celtics want to prove that that's not the case, and I believe Smith made a big mistake by opening his mouth about it whether he believes it or not.

New York is 1-8 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season. The Knicks are 2-11 ATS when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 19-9 ATS in the last 28 meetings in New York. Take Boston Wednesday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -5

The home team has won each of the first four meetings in this series with three of them being blowouts. After Memphis took care of business in Games 3 and 4 at home, I look for Los Angeles to return the favor at home in Game 5 with a blowout victory.

Chris Paul, one of the most underrated leaders in the game, will rally his troops and have everyone hitting on all cylinders tonight. Paul hasn't been getting much help since Game 1, but playing at home tonight, I look for the role players to feel a lot more comfortable, which will allow them to contribute a lot more.

Los Angeles is 39-23 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Clippers are 18-6 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Clippers Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Cubs UNDER 10

The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs will play part in a pitcher's duel tonight. The books have set this number way too high as two underrated starters go up against two of the worst line-ups in baseball.

While neither starter has been dominant in the early going, both have been excellent against tonight's opposition. Edinson Volquez has posted a 2.21 ERA in six career starts against Chicago. Edwin Jackson sports a 3.99 ERA in six career starts against San Diego.

The Padres are hitting .243 and scoring 3.5 runs/game this season, including .233 and 3.2 runs/game on the road. The Cubs are hitting .232 and scoring 3.4 runs/game on the year.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Padres last 4 road games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 during game 2 of a series. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Padres last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The UNDER is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 overall. These four trends combine for a 21-2 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Chicago White Sox +185

The Chicago White Sox are showing tremendous value as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog to the Texas Rangers tonight. Yu Darvish is getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to his fast start this season.

Well, the underrated Jose Quintana has been nearly as good. Chicago's best-kept secret is 2-0 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.059 WHIP through four starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.585 WHIP in two road starts.

Quintana faced the Rangers once last season, giving up just one earned run over 8 innings while striking out eight in a 2-1 victory. Yu Darvish faced Chicago once last year, giving up 6 runs and 11 base runners over 6 1/3 innings of a 5-9 home loss to the White Sox.

The White Sox are 10-3 in their last 13 games following an off day. Chicago is 15-7 in its last 22 vs. AL West opponents. The White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings with Texas. Roll with Chicago Tuesday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals +105

The Washington Nationals should not be an underdog to the Atlanta Braves tonight. They will be highly motivated to put an end to an 8-game losing streak to Atlanta which extends back to last season.

Considering the Nationals have the edge on the mound in this one, I like their chances of ending the skid. Gio Gonzalez is by far the superior starter in this one over Tim Hudson even though their numbers are comparable in the early going this season.

Gonzalez is 22-7 (+13.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. His teams are winning 5.6 to 3.6 on average in this spot. Gonzalez is 16-4 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. His teams are winning 5.5 to 3.2 in this spot. Take the Nationals Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-129)

After getting embarrassed by the Houston Astros in a 9-1 home loss in Game 1 of this series, I fully expect the New York Yankees to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2 tonight.

Given the edge they have on the mound in this one, you'll be counting your chips by the end of the 5th inning folks. Houston's Philip Humber is simply atrocious, going 0-5 with a 7.98 ERA and 1.817 WHIP through five starts this season.

New York's Hiroki Kuroda is one of the most underrated starters in the league, going 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.035 WHIP through five starts this season to pick up right where he left off last year. Kuroda is 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.985 WHIP In seven career starts against Houston.

Houston is 10-41 (-20.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +250 over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by 2.7 runs/game in this spot. Humber is 0-9 (-9.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. His teams are losing by a whopping 5.8 runs/game in this spot. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-115)

I'll side with the 2011 AL Cy Young and 2011 AL MVP winner, Justin Verlander, to hand the Minnesota Twins a multi-run loss tonight. Given how he has fared in his most recent starts against Minnesota, it's easy to see why I'm backing the Tigers on the Run Line tonight.

Verlander is 7-0 with a 1.22 ERA in his last seven starts against the Twins dating back to 2010. Detroit has won ALL SEVEN of those games by 2 or more runs. Enough said. Take the Tigers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -108

Rarely will you get the opportunity to get Roy Halladay at this kind of price against a team like the lowly Cleveland Indians. I'll gladly take advantage and back the former Cy Young winner, who has been returning to form.

Halladay got off to a slow start this season, which is why he is currently undervalued. However, he has returned to his old self of late, going 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.619 WHIP in his last three starts. He has allowed just 4 earned runs and 13 base runners over 21 innings in those three outings.

The Phillies are 54-26 in Halladay's last 80 starts. Philadelphia is 24-8 in Halladay's last 32 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Indians are 20-47 in their last 67 games as an underdog. Cleveland is 3-10 in Zach McAllister's last 13 starts overall. Bet the Phillies Tuesday.

15* Thunder/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 206.5

The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder are becoming very familiar with one another. As a result, each game since Game 1 has been lowing scoring. I look for that trend to continue tonight in this Game 4.

These teams combined for 211 points in Game 1, 207 Game 2 and 205 in Game 3. With their playoff lives at stake, I look for the Rockets to put forth their best defensive effort of the series tonight.

It's certainly much easier defending Oklahoma City considering it is without Russell Westbrook for the remainder of the playoffs. I don't expect the Thunder to get to 100 points tonight for the first time in this series. They simply cannot push the pace like they usually would with Westbrook on the floor.

This play falls into a system that is 52-17 (75.4%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NL Non-Divisional PLAY OF THE DAY on Padres/Cubs UNDER 9

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the soft-hitting San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs. I look for a low-scoring, pitcher's duel in this one as two underrated starters will be getting the ball tonight.

Jeff Samardzija is one of the best young starters in the league. While he's only 1-4 this season, that's due to a lack of run support considering he has posted a 3.03 ERA and 1.102 WHIP with 39 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings.

Samardzija is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in two career starts against San Diego. While Clayton Richard has struggled in the early going for San Diego, he is 2-0 with a 0.57 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago.

The Cubs are hitting just .229 and scoring 3.3 runs/game this season, including .204 and 2.2 runs/game against left-handed starters. The Padres are hitting .244 and scoring 3.5 runs/game this year, including .234 and 3.2 runs/game on the road.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Richard's last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 6-0 in Samardzija's last 6 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Samardzija's last 7 starts vs. National League West. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Hawks UNDER 186

The Indiana Pacers and Atlanta Hawks will play part in a defensive battle in this all-important Game 4. With Indiana leading the series 2-1, there is a lot at stake here. The more teams play each other, the more familiar they become with one another, and the harder it is to score.

That was certainly the case in Game 3 as Atlanta beat Indiana 90-69 for 159 combined points. While the Hawks shot just 42.7 percent from the floor, they were able to blow out the Pacers by limiting them to just 27.2 percent shooting.

The UNDER is 7-2 in Hawks last 9 home games. The UNDER is 13-5 in Hawks last 18 Conference Quarterfinals games. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NL Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nationals/Braves UNDER 7

There is a lot to like about this UNDER tonight between the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves. First and foremost, Atlanta is going to have a hard time scoring any runs against one of the best starters in baseball.

Stephen Strasburg gets the ball for Washington looking to improve upon his 1-4 start with a 3.16 ERA and 1.117 WHIP. He simply hasn't been getting any run support, which is the reason for his poor 1-4 record.

Julio Teheran had a great spring, but he got off to a slow start to the regular season for Atlanta. However, he is coming off his best start of the year, allowing just one earned run over 7 innings at Colorado on April 23rd.

In his last two starts against Atlanta, Strasburg has allowed a combined one earned run over 12 innings while striking out 17. Both teams are missing key hitters right now with the Braves playing without Jason Heyward and Brian McCann, and the Nationals without Ryan Zimmerman.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Strasburg's last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The UNDER is 9-4 in Strasburg's last 13 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The UNDER is 27-10-1 in Braves last 38 home games. The UNDER is 26-9-1 in Braves last 36 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Mets/Marlins UNDER 7

I look for a pitcher's duel tonight between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins. Two of the most underrated starters in the league will be getting the ball tonight, and they'll be up against two of the worst line-ups in baseball.

Matt Harvey is 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.686 WHIP through five starts this season. The youngster is clearly proving he is going to be the face of the franchise alongside David Wright for many years to come. Jose Fernandez is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.250 WHIP through four starts this season for Miami.

The Marlins have simply been atrocious at the plate this year. They are hitting .220 and scoring 2.7 runs/game on the season, including .190 and 2.4 runs/game at home. New York is hitting just .239 on the year.

Miami is 18-5 to the UNDER as a home underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Marlins last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Marlins last 21 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Nuggets/Warriors NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver -1.5

The Denver Nuggets get the call Sunday in a must-win Game 4 over the Golden State Warriors. Denver cannot afford to go down 1-3 with a loss, thus I look for them to do whatever it takes to win Game 4.

This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Denver is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. The Nuggets are 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. Golden State is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* Braves/Tigers ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Atlanta +128

The Atlanta Braves are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Detroit Tigers tonight. I'll gladly back them at this price considering the edge they have on the mound in this one.

After losing the first two games in this series, the Braves are highly motivated for a victory tonight in Game 3. I like their chances of getting revenge with Mike Minor getting the ball in Game 3.

Minor is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.920 WHIP through four starts this season. Atlanta is 10-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better since 1997. Bet the Braves Sunday.

15* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -113

The Philadelphia Phillies get the call Sunday with one of the most underrated starters in baseball on the mound. They should be a much heavier favorite considering Cole Hamels is getting the ball today.

The left-hander is off to a slow start this season, but that actually works in our favor because Hamels would normally be a much heavier favorite when up against a team like the lowly New York Mets and Jon Niese.

Hamels has really been pitching well of late, posting a 2.57 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts. Niese is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in his last three starts.

This play falls into a system that is 31-7 (81.6%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs. Bet the Phillies Sunday.

20* Rockets/Thunder Side & Total Parlay on Houston +1.5/UNDER 207.5

I am backing the Houston Rockets and the UNDER tonight as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3. My main reason for taking both plays is that Russell Westbrook will be out due to a torn meniscus in his knee.

The Thunder will be lost without their point guard on the floor tonight. As they struggle, it will prove just how important Westbrook is to this team. He constantly gets bashed in the media for taking too many shots, but the fact of the matter is the Thunder are better when he's being aggressive.

Without Westbrook, the Thunder are going to get much fewer fast break opportunities. They will look to slow it down and run their offense through Kevin Durant almost every time down the floor. The old man Derek Fisher will be running the point guard mostly tonight, and he doesn't have the ability to push the tempo.

The UNDER falls into a system that is 38-10 (79.2%) since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series.

Houston is 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. In fact, the Rockets are a perfect 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Rockets and the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Rockets/Thunder Side & Total Parlay on Houston +1.5/UNDER 207.5

I am backing the Houston Rockets and the UNDER tonight as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3. My main reason for taking both plays is that Russell Westbrook will be out due to a torn meniscus in his knee.

The Thunder will be lost without their point guard on the floor tonight. As they struggle, it will prove just how important Westbrook is to this team. He constantly gets bashed in the media for taking too many shots, but the fact of the matter is the Thunder are better when he's being aggressive.

Without Westbrook, the Thunder are going to get much fewer fast break opportunities. They will look to slow it down and run their offense through Kevin Durant almost every time down the floor. The old man Derek Fisher will be running the point guard mostly tonight, and he doesn't have the ability to push the tempo.

The UNDER falls into a system that is 38-10 (79.2%) since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series.

Houston is 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. In fact, the Rockets are a perfect 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Rockets and the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Cubs/Marlins UNDER 7.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this National League showdown between Chicago and Miami. These are two of the most underrated starters in the league, and they'll be up against two of the worst lineups in the league.

Travis Wood is off to an excellent start for Chicago. He's 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.038 WHIP through four starts this season. Alex Sanabia is 2-2 with a 5.09 ERA this season, but he's faced some very tough opponents in Cincinnati, Atlanta, Washington and New York.

The Cubs are hitting .226 and scoring 3.3 runs/game, including .198 and 2.5 runs/game on the road this season. The Marlins are hitting .220 and scoring 2.6 runs/game, .180 and 2.1 runs/game on the road, and .202 and 1.2 runs/game against left-handed starters this year.

This play falls into a system that is 46-11 (80.7%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (MIAMI) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL), playing on Saturday. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Nuggets/Warriors ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +1

The Denver Nuggets are showing solid value as a pick 'em tonight against the Golden State Warriors. After losing Game 2 in upset fashion, I look for the Nuggets to come out extra motivated tonight in Game 3 to regain home-court advantage for the series.

Golden State shot out of its mind in Game 2, and that's not going to happen again. It can play well one game without second-leading scorer David Lee, but it will not happen two games in a row.

That's especially the case considering Stephen Curry is banged up right now after twisting his ankle in Game 2. While Curry is listed as probable, there's no question he will not be at 100%. This guy has had chronic ankle problems throughout his career.

Denver is 19-4 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. The Nuggets are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Take the Nuggets Friday.

20* Knicks/Celtics ESPN Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston -2.5

Whatever the Boston Celtics have to give tonight, they will be laying it all on the floor in Game 3. It's do or die for Boston, which can't afford to fall behind 0-3 in this series to the New York Knicks if it wants to continue to play past this round.

That's why I am backing the Celtics tonight knowing they'll be giving 110%, which will be more than enough to cover this generous 2.5-point spread in Game 3. Boston is a resilient team that will not back down under the guidance of Doc Rivers.

Boston is 27-13 at home this season. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. New York is 3-15 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.

Doc Rivers is 34-17 ATS off a loss against a division rival as the coach of Boston. Rivers is 41-26 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent as the coach of Boston. Mike Woodson is 2-14 ATS in road games in all playoff games in all games he has coached since 1996. Bet the Celtics Thursday.

15* NL Friday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Philadelphia Phillies +114

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing solid value as an underdog to the New York Mets tonight in this NL East rivalry. They should not be a dog given the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Kyle Kendrick is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 1-1 with a 3.28 ERA in four starts this season, including 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA through his lone road start. Dillon Gee is 1-3 with a 5.95 ERA in four starts this season for New York.

Kendrick is 6-5 with a 3.00 ERA in 13 career starts against New York. That's much better than Gee, who is 2-2 with a 7.03 ERA and 1.812 WHIP in six career starts against Philadelphia. Gee allowed 7 earned runs over 3 innings of a 3-8 loss at Philadelphia on April 9th of 2013.

The Mets are 9-22 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 7-1 in Kendrick's last 8 starts vs. National League East opponents. Philadelphia is 6-1 in its last 7 meetings with New York. Roll with the Phillies Friday.

15* Clippers/Grizzlies TNT Thursday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 180

The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another. That makes points harder to come by. I believe there is a ton of value with the UNDER in this Game 3 between Memphis and Los Angeles for a couple different reason.

The most important reason is the fact that this game will be played in Memphis. The home team tends to control the tempo in a playoff series, and no team likes to slow it down and grind it out as much as the Grizzlies.

The first two games in this series went OVER the total with a 112-91 Game 1 win and a 93-91 Game 2 victory by Los Angeles. That has provided us with some line value on the UNDER in Game 3 as the books have not lowered this total like they should have. In fact, it has been set higher than it was in the first two games in LA.

Memphis is 12-1 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The Grizzlies are 10-1 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Memphis. These three trends combine for a 26-2 system backing the UNDER tonight. Take the UNDER in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Nets/Bulls Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 181.5

I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets in Game 3. As teams become more familiar with each other, points become even harder to come by as a series progresses.

After Chicago beat Brooklyn 90-82 in Game 2 for 172 combined points, I don't look for these teams to combine to exceed even that number tonight. I don't expect either team to get to 90 points in this one.

This play falls into a system that is 32-10 (76.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHICAGO) - in a playoff series which is tied, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

Brooklyn is 18-6 to the UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. Chicago is 12-4 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Thursday.

15* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -133

The Washington Nationals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they take on the Cincinnati Reds. They enter this game on a 4-game losing streak, so there's no question they'll be playing with a chip on their shoulder.

While the numbers haven't reflected it in the early going, there's absolutely no question that Gio Gonzalez is a much better starter than Bronson Arroyo. He's being undervalued right now because of his slow start.

I look for Gonzalez to get back on track tonight against a team that he has simply owned in the past. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati, allowing just 2 earned runs and 16 base runners over 19 innings.

The Nationals are 11-1 in Gonzalez's last 12 starts vs. National League Central opponents. Gonzalez is 49-19 (+23.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher since 1997. The Reds are 1-6 in Arroyo's last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Cincinnati is 0-5 in its last 5 road games. Roll with the Nationals Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 188

The books have overcompensated for a high-scoring Game 1 between Atlanta and Indiana. The Pacers beat the Hawks 107-90 for 197 combined points in a game that had the total set at 185.5 as the closing line.

Now, the books have jacked this total up a couple points to 188, and I find a ton of value in backing the under. With their playoff lives at stake, I look for a much better effort defensively from the Hawks as they try to steal Game 2 after giving up 50% shooting and 107 points in Game 1.

Indiana always brings it defensively, and that will be the case once again in Game 2 after limiting the Hawks to 44.9% shooting and 90 points in Game 1. The Pacers only yield 41.4% shooting and 89.9 points/game at home this season.

This play falls into a system that is 34-13 (72.3%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (INDIANA) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

Atlanta is 75-48 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are 21-6 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -121

Rarely will you ever get Roy Halladay as this small of a home favorite. Halladay is being undervalued right now due to a slow start to the season, but he has clearly turned it around, and I look for him to mow down this weak Pittsburgh Pirates' line-up en route to victory tonight.

After yielding 7 runs in his first outing, Halladay has really dominated in his last two. He has gone 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in wins over St. Louis and Miami, allowing just 3 earned runs and 10 base runners over 15 innings. Halladay is back folks.

Halladay has simply owned Pittsburgh, going 4-1 with a 0.98 ERA and 0.804 WHIP in six career starts against the Pirates. Wandy Rodriquez is 2-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia. He gave up 7 earned runs in 4 innings in his last start against the Phillies.

Halladay is 25-7 (+16.7 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997. The Pirates are 87-184 in their last 271 games as a road underdog. Philadelphia is 54-25 in Halladay's last 79 starts, including 30-12 in his last 42 home starts. Take the Phillies Wednesday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals +169

The Detroit Tigers have no business being this heavily-favored against the AL Central-leading Kansas City Royals Wednesday. This line just goes to show how underrated the Royals really are this season.

When you consider how well Wade Davis has pitched this season and against Detroit, there's no question that the Royals should be the favorite in this match-up tonight.

Davis is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA over three starts this season. He hasn't allowed a single earned run over 12 innings in his last two starts. Davis has posted a 2.86 ERA in three career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 0-7 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. Kansas City is a very profitable 13-8 (+12.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Royals Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Nuggets TNT Tuesday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 207.5

The Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets will play part in a defensive battle Tuesday in Game 2. I look for this game to take on a similar combined score as Game 1, which saw 192 combined points in a 97-95 home victory by Denver.

Golden State has lost David Lee for the rest of the playoffs to a hip injury. That hurts them a lot more offensively than it does defensively as Lee is a huge weapon on offense. He is second on the team in scoring at 18.5 points/game while shooting 51.9 percent from the field.

Lee's absence means guys like Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli and Draymond Green are going to have to play bigger minutes. All three of these guys are known as elite defenders and sub-par offensive players.

Denver is having to rely a lot more on defense with the loss of second-leading scorer Danilo Gallinari (16.2 PPG) due to a season-ending ankle injury. Also, Kenneth Faried is expected to return for Game 2 after missing Game 1, and his rebounding will be huge for the Nuggets defensively.

This play falls into a system that is 70-28 (71.4%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Rangers/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +105

The Los Angeles Angels should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Texas Rangers. They'll be motivated to bounce back from a tough 7-6 loss to Texas last night in Game 1 of this series.

Los Angeles is certainly a team that is undervalued right now after a slow start to the season at 7-11. That can be said for starter Jason Vargas, who is much better than his numbers would indicate, as well.

Texas comes in overvalued due to its 13-6 start to the season and its current 4-game winning streak. The same can be said for starter Alexi Ogando, who is off to a fast start this season but won't be able to post these numbers over an entire year.

This play falls into a system that is 53-26 (67.1%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) - revenging a one run loss to opponent, off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite. Bet the Angels Tuesday.

25* NBA Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics +6.5

In Game 2 against the New York Knicks Tuesday, the Boston Celtics represent my strongest side for the entire first round of the NBA Playoffs. I fully expect them to win this game outright, but I'm taking the points for some insurance.

Like the Bulls who won their Game 2 against Brooklyn on the road, the Celtics are one of the most resilient teams in the league. They are a reflection of head coach Doc Rivers, who like Tom Thibodeau, is one of the most competitive coaches in the league.

Boston simply gave away Game 1 with turnovers in an 85-78 loss to New York. I look for it to learn from its mistakes, and for its defense to be rock-solid once again as it always is in the playoffs. Rivers and company will make the proper adjustments in Game 2.

This play falls into a system that is 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (BOSTON) - off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Boston is 13-2 ATS off a road loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are 23-9 ATS in road games off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points since 1996. Rivers is 34-18 ATS in road games when playing with 2 days rest as the coach of Boston. The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Conference Quarterfinals games. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +157

The Houston Astros should not be this big of a home underdog to the Seattle Mariners. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price Monday night.

Not many bettors have even heard of Houston's Brad Peacock, which is why he continues to go under the radar, getting disrespected from oddsmakers. While he has only made five career starts and one relief appearance in his career, Peacock has gone 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.208 WHIP over 25 2/3 innings.

Felix Hernandez gets too much respect from oddsmakers. While he has posted good numbers throughout his career, Hernandez has just a 55.9 winning percentage because he has been on some bad teams. He is on another bad team in 2013.

This play falls into a system that is 37-13 (74%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (SEATTLE) - very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA>=4.50), after allowing 10 runs or more.

Seattle is 17-40 (-20.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 3 seasons. Hernandez is 4-14 (-12.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons. Take the Astros Monday.

20* Bulls/Nets TNT Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value as a 5-point underdog to the Brooklyn Nets Monday. After getting blown out in Game 1, I look for the Bulls to bounce back with an outright victory in Game 2, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

I believe Brooklyn's 106-89 Game 1 victory was simply an aberration. Chicago had won three of the four meetings during the regular season. Its only loss was a 4-point setback at Brooklyn.

The Bulls have been one of the most resilient teams in the league ever since Tom Thibodeau took over as head coach. Thibodeau is 50-31 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago.

P.J. Carlesimo hasn't been the best motivator following a blowout win throughout his coaching career. Carlesimo is in home games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half in all games he has coached since 1996. His teams are losing 89.2 to 96.2 on average in this spot. Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres +130

The San Diego Padres get the call Sunday as a nice-sized road underdog to the San Francisco Giants. After losing the first two games of this series, the Padres are hungry for a victory in Game 3.

I like their chances of picking up a win with Eric Stults on the mound. Stults is 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA through three starts this season. Barry Zito is overvalued here, and he's 2-1 with a 4.86 ERA on the year.

Stults is 9-3 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Stults is 8-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest since 1997. Roll with the Padres Sunday.

20* Lakers/Spurs ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 192.5

The books have set the bar way too high in this game between the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER in Game 1 in what will be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Los Angeles' scheme has changed completely since losing Kobe Bryant for the season. They now have to slow the game down and run their offense through big men Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol, which is something they probably should have been doing more of all season.

The results have been absolutely stunning. They are playing better as a team, especially defensively as their opponents get less possessions. The Lakers beat the Spurs 91-86 on April 14th in their first game without Kobe for 177 combined points. They came back with a 99-95 (OT) victory over the high-scoring Houston Rockets on April 17th in a game that was tied 90-90 at the end of regulation for 180 combined points.

This play falls into a system that is 76-36 (67.9%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, on Sunday games.

San Antonio is 7-0 to the UNDER versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 Sunday games, 3-0-2 in their last 5 games when playing on 3 or more days rest, and 4-0 in their last 4 Conference Quarterfinal games. These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings in this series. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

Note - I locked this play in as soon as the lines came out on Thursday. It has already dropped a couple points. I still recommend the UNDER as a 20* play at anything 189 or above. Anything less it drops to a 15* play.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +127

After losing the first two games of this series to Milwaukee, I look for the Chicago Cubs to take Game 3 and salvage it.

I like the Cubs' chances of doing some damage against Brewers' starter Wily Peralta. He is 0-1 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.687 WHIP over three starts this season.

Milwaukee is 12-22 (-15.5 Units) against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the Cubs Sunday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +140

The Minnesota Twins are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Chicago White Sox Sunday. They come in having won three straight and playing with a lot of confidence because of it.

Gavin Floyd has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers. Floyd is 0-3 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.852 WHIP through three starts this season, and 6-11 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.586 WHIP in 18 career starts against Minnesota.

Minnesota is 7-1 (+9.2 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 2 seasons. Floyd is 28-48 (-25.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 since 1997. Take the Twins Sunday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets +130

The New York Mets are highly motivated to beat the 2012 NL East champion Washington Nationals in this series. I look for them to take Game 3 and take the series Sunday.

Dillon Gee is 3-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in six career starts against Washington. This is certainly one team he enjoys facing.

Washington is 6-28 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a game they hit 4 or more home runs since 1997. Bet the Mets Sunday.

15* AL East PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees +135

Rarely will you ever get the New York Yankees as this big of an underdog against anyone. I'll take full advantage Sunday and back them as they look to improve to 11-6 with a victory Sunday.

Josh Johnson has no business being this heavily favored Sunday. The right-hander is 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.814 WHIP through three starts this season. Ivan Nova is 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA in six career starts against Toronto.

The Blue Jays are 6-23 (-17.0 Units) against the money line vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. Toronto is 1-7 (-9.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Bet the Yankees Sunday.

15* Hawks/Pacers TNT Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -6.5

I look for the Indiana Pacers to roll to a blowout victory over the Atlanta Hawks in Game 1 of this series Sunday. The Pacers are the most underrated team heading into the 2013 playoffs, and I believe they have the best shot of beating the Miami Heat down the road.

Their run to the Eastern Conference Finals starts with this Game 1 against the hapless Atlanta Hawks, who stumbled into the playoffs losing five of their final seven games. A big reason for their struggles have been injuries to Josh Smith (knee) and Al Horford (shoulder), who are their two best players. While each is expected to give it a go in Game 1, neither will be at 100%.

Indiana has done an excellent job of protecting its home court all season. It is 30-11 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 7.7 points/game. One look at the recent history in this series and it's easy to see that home-court advantage is huge.

The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this series between Atlanta and Indiana dating back to 2010. The Pacers won both home meetings this season with a 114-103 victory on February 5th, and a 100-94 triumph on March 25th. The home team is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Take the Pacers Sunday.

15* Bulls/Nets ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Chicago +5

The Chicago Bulls are finally getting healthy heading into the 2013 NBA playoffs. Sure, they're still missing Derrick Rose, but they have been used to that for over a year now. The key is getting Noah, Gibson, Hamilton and company healthy.

When they are healthy aside from Rose, the Bulls are capable of beating anyone in the league. I look for them to go into Brooklyn and steal Game 1 Saturday, which is the easiest game for an underdog to win in any series.

Chicago clearly matches up well with Brooklyn given their season history. The Bulls went 3-1 in their four meetings with the Nets with their only loss coming by a final of 89-93 on February 1st in Brooklyn. They have now won seven of the last nine meetings in this series dating back to 2011.

The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings in Brooklyn. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games. These four trends combine for an 18-1 (95%) system backing Chicago. Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets +140

We're getting a great price on the New York Mets once again Saturday. This is one of the most underrated teams in the league, off to an 8-7 start this season.

The Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Mets are 11-3 in their last 14 home games. The price is right, and we'll back the Mets today because of it. Bet New York Saturday.

25* NBA Opening Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Celtics/Knicks UNDER 193.5

The books have set the bar too high in this Game 1 showdown between the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks. These two Eastern Conference rivals will play part in a defensive battle today in New York.

Playoff basketball brings out the best intensity defensively in most teams, especially these two. New York is expected to get several of its top defenders back for the playoffs in Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby. That will make this team a lot harder to score against.

These are two of the better defensive teams in the league. New York allows just 95.7 points/game overall and 94.0 points/game at home. Both of those numbers will go down now that they are healthy. Boston yields 96.7 points/game overall while scoring just 94.6 points/game on the road.

All four meetings between these teams this season have seen less than 200 combined points. Considering they have played four times already this year, they are obviously very familiar with one another. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

New York is 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are combining with their opponents to average 183.6 points/game in this spot. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

Note - I locked this play in right when the lines came out on Thursday. I can see this total is already dropping. I still recommend a bet on the UNDER as a 25* play at 190 or more. Anything less makes it a 20* play for you.

15* Celtics/Knicks ABC Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +7.5

The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the New York Knicks in Game 1 of this series Saturday. Remember, this is a Boston team that took Miami to a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

What I'm saying is that Doc Rivers always has his teams playing their best basketball in the playoffs. That's why he is one of the best head coaches in the league, and I look for him to have the Celtics hitting on all Cylinders in Game 1 Saturday.

New York is being overvalued here due to earning the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, and due to beating the Celtics each of the last three times these teams met in the regular season. That will only add fuel to Boston's fire as they want revenge. The easiest game for an underdog to steal is Game 1 of a series.

The Knicks have won exactly ONE playoff game over the past 11 seasons. Carmelo Anthony has a 17-37 career playoff record, which is one of the worst marks for any individual player in NBA history. Yet, the team continues to get so much respect from oddsmakers.

Boston is 12-2 ATS off a road loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. It is coming back to win in this spot by a whopping 11.0 points/game. The Celtics are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the Celtics Saturday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +216

The San Diego Padres are showing excellent value as more than a 2-to-1 underdog to the San Francisco Giants tonight. This is one of the most underrated teams in the league, while San Francisco is overvalued coming off its World Series title.

San Diego just swept a 3-game series in Los Angeles despite being a +155, +165 and +230 underdog in all three games, respectively. It not only won that series, it dominated it by outscoring the Dodgers 22-7 in the process.

Edinson Volquez has allowed two runs or less in each of his last three starts against San Francisco, giving up 6 runs over 17 innings. Madison Bumgarner has allowed 14 runs over 22 2/3 innings in his last four starts against San Diego. As you can see, the recent head-to-head history favors Volquez.

The Padres are feeling great after their sweep of the Dodgers, and they tend to keep playing well in this spot. San Diego is 10-1 (+13.5 Units) against the money line off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Padres Friday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona Diamondbacks +122

The price is right on the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight as a road underdog to the Colorado Rockies. I'll take advantage and back the Diamondbacks in a game that they have the edge on the mound in.

Colorado comes in overvalued due to its current 6-game winning streak which has come against the likes of the San Diego Padres and New York Mets. It should not be this heavily favored tonight.

Ian Kennedy has been the better starter throughout his career over Jhoulys Chacin. He also loves facing the Rockies, going 3-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 career starts. His teams are 9-3 in those 12 outings against Colorado.

Kennedy is 24-6 (+17.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Kennedy's last 5 road starts. The Rockies are 1-10 in Chacin's last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Diamondbacks Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +190

The Seattle Mariners get the nod Friday as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog to the Texas Rangers. This price is simply too good to pass up tonight folks as this is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate.

Joe Saunders is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in three starts this season. He has gone 13 1/3 innings over his last two starts without allowing a single earned run. One of those starts came against Texas as he continued his dominance against them. Saunders has allowed just 2 earned runs over 19 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Rangers for a miniscule 0.92 ERA.

There's no question that Yu Darvish is a good starter, but he's being overvalued here. That's especially the case when you consider how poorly he has pitched against the Mariners in the past. Darvish is 2-3 with a 6.21 ERA in five career starts against Seattle, allowing 20 earned runs over 29 innings. Given these numbers, you would think the Mariners were the team that was laying nearly 2-to-1 odds.

Saunders is a very profitable 16-5 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. Bet the Mariners Friday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets +114

Many public bettors are going to jump all over Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals as a small road favorite over the New York Mets tonight. In the worst of Lee Corso, not so fast my friends.

New York will be giving the ball to Matt Harvey, who is one of the most underrated starters in the league. After getting swept by Colorado in their last series, I look for the Mets to come out hungry in Game 1 tonight and to get the win behind Harvey.

The young right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.545 WHIP through three starts this season. He has allowed just two earned runs and 12 base runners while striking out 25 batters over 22 innings. He'll be extra motivated to take down Strasburg tonight.

The Nationals are 0-7 in their last 7 Friday games. Washington is 2-6 in Strasburg's last 8 starts during game 1 of a series. The Mets are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter. New York is 10-3 in its last 13 home games overall. Take the Mets Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -121

Rarely will you ever get 2012 AL Cy Young winner David Price at this kind of price all season. I'm going to take full advantage and back him and the Rays to beat the Baltimore Orioles in the Game 3 grudge match tonight.

The left-hander is undervalued due to a slow start this season. Price was rocked by Cleveland before refocusing in his last start, allowing just one earned runs over 6 innings while striking out 8 in a 1-2 loss at Boston.

Price is 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in 13 career starts against Baltimore. In his last five starts against the Orioles, Price has allowed just 4 earned runs in 35 innings for a miniscule 1.03 ERA.

Price is 20-5 (+13.2 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. Tampa Bay is 20-5 (+15.7 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. The Rays are 26-8 in Price's last 34 starts as a road favorite. Bet Tampa Bay Thursday.

15* NL Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -120

The Atlanta Braves have been the best team in the big leagues through the first two weeks of the season. I'll gladly back them at this price against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight as they continue to roll.

Atlanta's top pitching prospect, Julio Teheran, had one of the best springs of any starting pitcher in the league. He went 3-1 with a 1.04 ERA while striking out 35 batters in 26 innings. After a slow start to the regular season, he is being undervalued here.

There's no question that Teheran is the better starter on the mound tonight, and that will show by game's end. Pittsburgh's Jeff Locke is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.545 WHIP through two starts this season, so it's not like he's been mowing down everyone, either.

This play falls into a system that is 35-8 (81.4%) since 1997. It tells us to bet against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - poor fielding team - turning 0.8 or less DP's/game on the season., after a game where they had at least 10 more hits than their opponent. Take the Braves Thursday.

15* AL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Orioles UNDER 7.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles. While I believe the Rays have the edge on the mound and will win this game, I look for them to do it in a low-scoring contest because Baltimore also has a solid starter going.

2012 AL Cy Young winner David Price got off to a slow start this season against Cleveland, but he bounced back by allowing just one earned run over 6 innings in a 1-2 loss at Boston last time out. Price is 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in 13 career starts against Baltimore. He has allowed just 4 earned runs over 35 innings for a 1.03 ERA in his last five starts against the Orioles.

While Miguel Gonzalez is no match for Price, he's certainly one of the more underrated starters in the league. Gonzalez has gone 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA through his first two starts this season after going 9-4 with a 3.25 ERA in 15 starts and three relief appearances for Baltimore last season. He is also 2-1 with a 3.49 ERA in five career starts against Tampa Bay.

The Rays are 50-24 UNDER (+22.7 Units) vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 31-16 UNDER (+12.4 Units) after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Rays last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The UNDER is 32-14-5 in Rays last 51 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The UNDER is 11-3 in Gonzalez's last 14 starts overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +5.5

I'm fading the Brooklyn Nets once again tonight because they have nothing to play for as they are already locked into the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. I did so with success Monday as the Wizards +6 covered at Brooklyn.

The Nets rested Deron Williams, Brooke Lopez and Reggie Evans in that game against Washington. It would be foolish for them to play any of their starters in this one as the most important thing is to be healthy going into the playoffs.

It doesn't matter who the Nets put on the floor in this one. Whoever is out there will be looking ahead to the playoffs and not interested at all in beating the Pistons. Detroit, meanwhile, wants to win this game knowing it will be its last contest of the season.

The Pistons have been playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, too. They have won four straight coming in, and they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. All three of their outright losses during this span have come by 6 points or less. Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -2.5

The Charlotte Bobcats (20-61) are tied with the Orlando Magic for the worst record in the league. As most of you remember, they set an NBA record for futility last season by winning the lowest percentage of games in a season in NBA history.

Charlotte doesn't want to be known as the worst team in the league for a second straight season, so it will be laying it all on the line to get a victory tonight. It has been playing well down the stretch, especially at home.

The Bobcats have won seven of their last nine home games following back-to-back wins over Milwaukee and New York. Cleveland has clearly packed it in, losing five straight and 15 of its last 17 games overall coming in.

Cleveland is 5-15 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. The Cavaliers are 5-15 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is 15-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Bobcats Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +9

The San Antonio Spurs have no business being a 9-point favorite over the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. San Antonio has absolutely nothing to play for as it is locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.

The Spurs rested Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard in a 96-106 loss at Golden State on Monday. While all three of these players are listed as probable to play tonight, it's only because Greg Popovich wants to make sure they aren't rusty heading into the playoffs.

San Antonio won't be thinking about beating Minnesota tonight, let alone beating it by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this massive spread. The Timberwolves realize this is their final game of the season, and I look for them to lay it all on the line because of it.

Minnesota is 25-14 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. San Antonio is just 12-21 ATS in the second half of the season this season. Take the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 180.5

With something at stake for both Utah and Memphis, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. Utah needs a win and a Lakers' loss to make the playoffs, while Memphis need a win and a Clippers' loss to earn home-court advantage in the Western Conference.

Playing at home, Memphis will control the tempo in this one, which has been at a snail's pace of late. The UNDER is 7-1 in the Grizzlies' last 8 games overall with combined scores of 182, 170, 170, 176, 179, 160, 178 and 200 points.

I look for this game to be played a similar pace as the last time these teams met up on March 16th about a month ago. Memphis won 90-84 at home for 174 combined points. Baskets will be hard to come by with the kind of effort each team will be giving defensively with what's at stake.

Memphis is 26-9 to the UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 20-7 to the UNDER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Utah is 20-9 to the UNDER after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Miami Heat have nothing to play for as they have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the East and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. I'll gladly fade them when they shouldn't even be favored against Orlando tonight given the scenario.

Lebron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade are all doubtful heading into this one. Ray Allen, Udonis Haslem and Shane Battier are questionable. All Miami is concerned about is getting healthy for its opening round match-up with Milwaukee, not beating Orlando tonight.

I look for the Magic to lay it all on the line in this game. It will be their final game of the season, and they want to beat their in-state rivals. Even more, they are tied with the Charlotte Bobcats at 20-61 on the season for the league's worst record. They don't want to be known as the worst team in the league.

This play falls into a system that is 69-28 (71.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (ORLANDO) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies +128

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value as an underdog to the Cincinnati Reds tonight. Philadelphia should not be the dog considering the edge they have on the mound in this one.

John Lannan is one of the most underrated starters in the game. The Phillies were wise to get him this offseason, adding him to what is arguably the best rotation in baseball. Lannan has not disappointed in the early going, posting a 2.77 ERA and 0.962 WHIP through two starts.

Homer Bailey has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.833 WHIP through two starts for the Reds this season. Bailey has NEVER BEATEN the Phillies, going 0-3 (0-5 against the money line) with a 9.34 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in five career starts against them. Bet the Phillies Wednesday.

15* American League PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -110

The Tampa Bay Rays are highly motivated for a victory Wednesday as they look to put an end to a 4-game losing streak with three of those losses coming by exactly one run. I like their chances given the edge they have on the mound over the Baltimore Orioles in this one.

Matt Moore is one of the best young starters in the game. He's off to a 2-0 start with a 0.00 ERA and 0.971 WHIP while not allowing a single run over 11 2/3 innings in wins over the Rangers and Indians. Moore is 2-2 with a miniscule 1.83 ERA in four career starts against Baltimore.

Chris Tillman is clearly overmatched in this one. The right-hander has posted a 7.00 ERA and 2.11 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 7 runs and 19 base runners over 9 innings in games against Boston and Minnesota. Tillman is 1-3 with a 4.78 ERA in seven career starts against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay is a very profitable 19-5 (+14.7 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Rays Wednesday.

15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +200

The Houston Astros are showing excellent value as a 2-to-1 underdog to the Oakland A's tonight. Houston comes in hungry for a victory after dropping its last three. Oakland is overvalued due to its 10-4 start to the season.

Brad Peacock is one of the most underrated starters in the league because not many bettors have even heard of him. This guy has dominated in limited action, going 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA over four starts and one relief appearance in the majors.

This play falls into a system that is 60-53 (53.1%) over the last 5 seasons while profiting $1,000/game players $51,500. It tells us to bet on all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (HOUSTON) - very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), after scoring 2 runs or less. Bet the Astros Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Hawks UNDER 197.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks Tuesday night. This is a very important game for Atlanta as it tries to lock up the No. 5 seed in the East. I look for it to be on top of its game defensively because of it.

Toronto has been playing very well of late, winning five of its last six games overall. While it hasn't been hitting on all cylinders offensively, it has been winning because of solid defense. The Raptors are scoring 92.8 points/game and allowing 90.7 points/game in their last six games overall, combining with their opponents to average 183.5 points/game.

My biggest reason for backing the UNDER tonight is the recent head-to-head history between these teams. The Raptors and Hawks have combined for 196 or less points in each of their last seven meetings dating back to 2011. They have combined to average 186.4 points/game over this span.

This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (TORONTO) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia Phillies +142

The Cincinnati Reds have no business being this heavily favored tonight over the Philadelphia Phillies. That's especially the case considering the Phillies have the edge on the mound in this one.

Kyle Kendrick is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts this season and 3-2 with a 5.09 ERA in six career starts against Cincinnati. Sure, those numbers won't blow you away, but when you compare them to Cincinnati's Homer Bailey, they are better. Bailey is 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts this season, and 0-3 with a 5.29 ERA in six career starts against Philadelphia.

Kendrick is a very profitable 31-13 (+17.8 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest since 1997. The Phillies are 6-1 in Kendrick's last 7 starts as an underdog. Philadelphia is 10-4 in its last 14 games as an underdog. The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take the Phillies Tuesday.

15* Royals/Braves Interleague No-Brainer on Kansas City +170

The Kansas City Royals are showing their best value of the season Tuesday night as a huge road underdog to the Atlanta Braves. I'll gladly take advantage and back these improved Royals, who are off to a solid 7-5 start this season.

Atlanta comes in way overvalued due to its 11-1 start, which includes a 9-game winning streak coming in. The Braves just swept 2012 NL East champ Washington last series in three games, setting them up for a huge letdown spot heading into Game 1 of this series with Kansas City.

Jeremy Guthrie may be the most underrated starter in the entire league. The right-hander is picking up right where he left off last season, going 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.026 WHIP through his first two starts this year. Guthrie is 7-0 with a 2.37 ERA over his last 13 starts, of which Kansas City has won 12. That makes for a 12-1 (92%) system backing Gurthrie and the Royals tonight. Take Kansas City Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Indians OVER 8.5

The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians tonight. I look for a slug fest as both starting pitchers are below-average in this league to say the least.

Boston's Felix Doubront has posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in one start this season, and he's 1-1 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.355 WHIP in two career starts against the Indians.

Cleveland's Ubaldo Jimenez remains terrible, going 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.452 WHIP in two starts this season. The right-hander is 1-2 with a massive 7.84 ERA and 1.984 WHIP in four career starts against the Red Sox.

Doubront is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is 15-4 OVER (+10.8 Units) after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival over the last 3 seasons. Jimenez is 20-9 OVER (+10.6 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7

The Phoenix Suns want revenge from a 98-101 road loss as a 14.5-point underdog to the Houston Rockets on April 9th less than a week ago. Jermaine O'Neal was called for goaltending at the buzzer on a questionable call.

Houston has little to play for right now as it is guaranteed to be either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. I have a hard time seeing the Rockets being motivated enough to beat a team they just beat less than a week ago by more than 7 points tonight.

Phoenix comes in the fresher team as well. The Suns will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Rockets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Sacramento Kings at home last night.

The Rockets are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Rockets are 9-19 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Suns Monday.