|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-26-20||Maryland v. Indiana -2||77-76||Loss||-108||2 h 0 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2
The Indiana Hoosiers want revenge from a 59-75 loss at Maryland on January 4th in their first meeting. Considering how well the Hoosiers have played at home this season, they should have their revenge this afternoon.
Indeed, Indiana is 12-1 at home this season and winning by 15.0 points per game. They just upset Michigan State as 4-point home underdogs and also crushed Ohio State by 12 and Florida State by 16 at home.
Maryland is just 1-4 SU in true road games with its only win coming at Northwestern, which is the worst team in the Big Ten. The Terrapins lost at Wisconsin (by 2), Iowa (by 18), Seton Hall (by 4) and Penn State (by 7).
The home team is 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings, so home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. And the Hoosiers basically just have to win to cover at home today. The Terrapins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games. Take Indiana Sunday.
|01-25-20||Washington +8 v. Colorado||62-76||Loss||-104||20 h 55 m||Show|
15* Washington/Colorado FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Washington +8
The Washington Huskies are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are much better than their 12-8 record would indicate, but they have just been unfortunate in close games this year. And I expect this game against Colorado to come down to the wire, so getting 8 points is a great value.
Indeed, Washington is 12-8 with seven of their losses coming by 7 points or fewer. So they have only been beaten by more than this spread one time in 20 games this season. KenPom has a luck factor for teams that shows how lucky are unlucky they are to have the record they have. Well, Washington is 347th out of 353 teams in the luck category. This is more like a 15-5 team rather than a 12-8 team.
Colorado is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 15-4 record and No. 23 national ranking. But this is a Colorado team that is fortunate to have that record as they are 66th in the luck department. And they have been upset by both Oregon State and Northern Iowa at home this year, so they are far from invincible at home.
Colorado’s best player in Tyler Bey is questionable with a hand injury after sitting out last game against Washington State. Bey averages 13.1 PPG and leads the team in rebounding at 9.3 RPG while also leading the team in 3-point percentage (47.1%). Chances are he plays but he’s far from 100% with a hand injury.
Washington owns Colorado, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. That includes two upset wins as road underdogs winning 77-70 as 2.5-point dogs and 72-62 as 5-point dogs in its last two trips to Boulder. Expect more of the same as the Buffaloes struggle with the size and defensive prowess of the Huskies, who give up just 62.7 PPG and 36.9% shooting this season. Roll with Washington Saturday.
|01-25-20||Lakers -4.5 v. 76ers||91-108||Loss||-109||20 h 31 m||Show|
15* Lakers/76ers ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4.5
The Los Angeles Lakers have been the best road team in the NBA this season. They are 20-4 SU in road games, so I’m not worried at all about laying this short number with them on the road against the Philadelphia 76ers.
I know the 76ers are great at home, but they just have some injuries right now that aren’t going to allow them to compete with the Lakers. They are without their best player in Joel Embiid (23.4 PPG, 12.3 RPG) and also are now without their best shooter in Josh Richardson (15.0 PPG), who just suffered a hamstring injury last time out.
Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in in their last three games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games are 42-14 (75%) ATS since 1996.
The 76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The 76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days’ rest. Los Angeles is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 trips to Philadelphia. Take the Lakers Saturday.
|01-25-20||Baylor v. Florida -2||Top||72-61||Loss||-105||19 h 6 m||Show|
20* Baylor/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida -2
This is one of those rare situations where the unranked team in Florida is favored over the ranked team in Baylor. And it’s not just any ranked team, it’s the No. 1 Baylor Bears. And I fully agree with Florida being the favorite here.
You can bet it’s going to be a rowdy atmosphere for the Gators at home Saturday night with the No. 1 team coming to town. And the Gators have defended their home court to near-perfection. They are 7-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Florida State, which is the No. 5 ranked team in the country. They just beat 16th-ranked Auburn by 22 in their last home game.
I don’t believe Baylor is the best team in the country. That ranking clearly went to their head when they were nearly upset by Oklahoma on Monday in a 61-57 win as 11-point home favorites. They also barely won their previous game against lowly Oklahoma State as they trailed the entire way until the final minutes. That’s an Oklahoma State team that is 0-6 in Big 12 play.
Baylor usually has a big rebounding edge against most opponents, but that won’t be the case against Florida. The Bears average 6 more boards per game than their opponents while the Gators average 5 more boards per game than their foes. And it’s worth noting Florida (22nd) has played the tougher schedule than Baylor (47th). The Gators are battle-tested and ready to take down the top-ranked team in the country. Take Florida Saturday.
|01-25-20||Tulane -1.5 v. East Carolina||62-81||Loss||-108||17 h 55 m||Show|
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane -1.5
The Tulane Green Wave are one of the most improved teams in the country. Head coach Ron Hunter did big things at IUPUI and Georgia State in turning around those two programs. And he’s doing the same in his first season at Tulane thanks to transfers.
This is a Tulane team that has made me a lot of money this season. They covered 4 straight recently to open AAC play. They covered in narrow road losses to Memphis and UConn, while also upsetting Cincinnati as an 8-point home dog and Temple by 16 as a 9-point road dog.
I think that stretch took its toll on Tulane because the Green Wave have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games. They lost at home to UCF and Tulsa. But now they’ve had a full week to recover as they last play on Saturday, coming in on six days’ rest. Expect one of their best efforts of the season to try and bounce back from those two losses.
East Carolina is at a huge scheduling disadvantage. The Pirates only come in on two days’ rest after losing 64-84 at SMU on Wednesday. That followed up a 25-point loss at Cincinnati and a 16-point home loss to Tulsa. Tulane is power rated about 8 points better than ECU according to KenPom, and when you factor in the favorable scheduling spot the Green Wave should be more than 1.5-point favorites here.
ECU is 2-14 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons. The Pirates are 1-9 ATS after playing five consecutive games as an underdog over the last two seasons. ECU is 2-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Pirates are 0-7 ATS vs. excellent ball-handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last three years.
The Green Wave are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. Tulane is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%. The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take Tulane Saturday.
|01-25-20||Mavs v. Jazz -3.5||Top||107-112||Win||100||16 h 2 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -3.5
The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA. They have gone 18-2 SU in their last 20 games overall and 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games overall. We are getting the Jazz real cheap as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Dallas Mavericks tonight. Especially since they’re rested on two days’ rest having last played on Wednesday.
The Mavericks are getting some respect from the books because they are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. But they lost to the best team they faced in the Clippers and the other five wins came against the Blazers (twice), Kings, Warriors and 76ers (at home).
The Mavericks just lost a key player in Dwight Powell to a season-ending Achilles injury, while the Jazz are fully healthy right now. The Jazz are 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings with the Mavericks. The Jazz are 6-0 SU in their last six home meetings with Dallas winning by an average of 12.0 points per game.
The Mavericks are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. The Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games. Utah is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. Bet the Jazz Saturday.
|01-25-20||USC v. Oregon State -2.5||75-55||Loss||-109||16 h 55 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon State -2.5
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Oregon State Beavers, who have lost three in a row both SU & ATS coming in. That has them highly motivated for a win tonight as they host the USC Trojans.
USC is coming off a gut-wrenching loss to Oregon in overtime. I think that’s the kind of loss that beats them twice here. Especially since the Trojans only have one day to recover from that contest on Thursday plus have the travel. Oregon State gets to stay at home after facing UCLA Thursday and will be the much fresher, more prepared team.
The Beavers are 8-2 at home this season. They won both meetings with USC last year and should be able to handle this USC team that lost by 32 at Washington and by 9 at Oregon in two of its recent road games.
Oregon State is 13-4 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. The Beavers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games off an ATS loss. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Oregon State Saturday.
|01-25-20||Bradley v. Indiana State -2.5||Top||53-61||Win||100||13 h 56 m||Show|
25* MVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State -2.5
The Indiana State Sycamores are highly motivated for a win off two straight road losses to Valparaiso and Loyola-Chicago. And now they will certainly get up for defending MVC champ Bradley today. I believe the Sycamores are favored for good reason.
Indiana State is 7-0 at home this season. That includes a 3-0 home record in conference play with all three wins coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 16.0 points per game. The Sycamores are one of the most underrated teams in the MVC this season as they’re a veteran squad that returned four starters.
Bradley comes in overvalued after winning four of their last five and going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. But they could be without their top two scorers Saturday. Elijah Childs (14.2 PPG) is for sure out, while Darrell Brown (14.2 PPG) is questionable with a quad injury after sitting out last game.
Bradley is just 2-4 SU in true road games this season. They lost to a very bad St. Joe’s team as 5-point road favorites, lost by 15 at Memphis, lost by 16 at Miami Ohio as 2-point favorites and also lost at Northern Iowa. Their only two road wins came against poor Missouri State and Evansville teams.
Indiana State has won five of its last seven meetings with Bradley. The Sycamores are 17-5 SU in their last 22 home meetings with Bradley. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Indiana State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%. The Sycamores are 6-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the last two seasons. Bet Indiana State Saturday.
|01-25-20||Nebraska +13 v. Rutgers||Top||72-75||Win||100||13 h 56 m||Show|
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +13
I love fading the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in this spot. They just got ranked this week for the first time since the 1978-79 season. And they are now getting a lot of love from oddsmakers due to that Top 25 ranking.
I know Rutgers is 13-0 at home this season, but that is being factored into the line way too much. Also this is an overreaction from Rutgers beating Nebraska 79-62 on the road on January 3rd in their first meeting this season.
I’ll gladly side with the revenge-minded Huskers, who are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg. The Huskers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. That includes upset wins over Purdue by 14 as 13-point dogs and Iowa by 6 as 8-point dogs. They just aren’t getting blown out as they have only been beaten by more than 14 points once in their last 10 games overall.
Nebraska is 10-2 ATS in January road games over the last three seasons. The Huskers are 13-4 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons. Rutgers is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 home games after playing a game where both teams scored 80 points or more. The Scarlet Knights have just two days to prepare while the Huskers have three days to get ready after playing on Tuesday. Roll with Nebraska Saturday.
|01-25-20||Illinois v. Michigan -3.5||64-62||Loss||-109||11 h 55 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -3.5
The Michigan Wolverines are showing great value as a short home favorite Saturday over Illinois. We are getting the Wolverines at a discount because they have lost three straight coming in both SU and ATS. That has them highly motivated for a win here Saturday.
Adding to the motivation is the fact that Michigan wants revenge from a 62-71 loss at Illinois in their first meeting this season. Well, home-court advantage has been huge for the Wolverines in this series as they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the Fighting Illini. The home team is 27-11-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings. And Michigan has faced the 4th-toughest schedule in the entire country this year so they are battle-tested.
It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Fighting Illini, who have won five straight coming in. But three of those wins were by 4 points or fewer, including narrow home wins over Rutgers (by 3) and Northwestern (by 4). And Illinois just lost its first player off the bench in Alan Griffin (8.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG) to a two-game suspension. Griffin also leads the team in 3-point percentage (39.4%) and FT percentage (89.5%).
Michigan is 8-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. The Wolverines are 15-4 ATS off a loss over the last three years. Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games. The Fighting Illini are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS win. Roll with Michigan Saturday.
|01-24-20||Nuggets v. Pelicans -4||Top||113-106||Loss||-108||8 h 31 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4
The New Orleans Pelicans lost their first game with Zion Williamson in the lineup Wednesday on National TV. They ran into a hot Spurs team and fell 117-121. I expect the Pelicans to get back on track tonight with a win and cover against the Denver Nuggets.
The Pelicans are 10-5 SU & 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall. They are fully healthy for the first time all season. They are going to be a dangerous team moving forward as they have one of the most talented rosters in the NBA.
The Denver Nuggets are far from healthy. They are without Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee while both Gary Harris and Michael Porter Jr. are questionable. They have lost two of their last three by 8 at home to Indiana and by 15 at Houston. They needed overtime to beat lowly Golden State and also won by just 7 at lowly Minnesota.
The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last five Friday games. The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Nuggets. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Denver. The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off a loss. These four trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing New Orleans. Bet the Pelicans Friday.
|01-24-20||Raptors -8 v. Knicks||118-112||Loss||-106||7 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -8
The Toronto Raptors have had five key players miss 10 or more games this year in Siakam, Lowry, VanVleet, Gasol and Powell. It’s amazing they’ve been able to go 30-14 to this point with all these injuries.
But the Raptors returned everyone basically five games ago. And it’s no coincidence they’ve gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in those five games, winning by an average of 13.0 points per game. Expect another blowout win over the lowly New York Knicks tonight.
The Raptors own the Knicks, going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings while winning those seven games by an average of a whopping 23.0 points per game. Dating back further, the Raptors are 15-1 SU in their last 16 meetings with the Knicks with 12 of those wins coming by double-digits.
The Raptors are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games playing on one days’ rest. The Knicks are 7-20 ATS in in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with the Raptors Friday.
|01-24-20||Wisconsin v. Purdue -4||Top||51-70||Win||100||7 h 44 m||Show|
20* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -4
The Purdue Boilermakers are highly motivated for a win tonight. They are coming off a rare home loss to Illinois and have dropped four of their last five overall with the other three losses coming on the road. Look for them to get back in the win column with a blowout victory over Wisconsin Friday.
Purdue is now 15-1 SU in its last 16 Big Ten home games to show you how rare that loss to Illinois really was. The Boilermakers are 8-2 at home this season with impressive wins over Michigan State by 29 and Virginia by 29.
Wisconsin has gone 3-3 in true road games with blowout losses to NC State by 15 and Michigan State by 12, as well as a loss at Rutgers by 7. Purdue has gone 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Wisconsin.
The Badgers are 0-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover three of their last four ATS over the last two seasons. The Boilermakers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games off a loss. Purdue is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Purdue Friday.
|01-23-20||UCLA v. Oregon State -7.5||Top||62-58||Loss||-105||11 h 54 m||Show|
20* UCLA/Oregon State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State -7.5
The Oregon State Beavers will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night. They are coming off back-to-back road losses to Washington and Washington State.
Now the Beavers return home where they are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 14.0 points per game. They crushed Arizona 82-65 in their last home games and have one of the better home-court advantages in the Pac-12.
UCLA is a dumpster fire right now. It is 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall with its only wins coming against Cal and Washington. Five of those six losses came by 8 points or more, so the Bruins have been blown out on the regular.
Oregon State is 8-1 ATS off two straight games where they had 5 or fewer steals over the last two seasons. The Beavers are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the Bruins. UCLA is 16-35 ATS in its last 51 road games. The Bruins are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Beavers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS loss. The Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games off a SU loss. Roll with Oregon State Thursday.
|01-23-20||Mavs v. Blazers +4.5||Top||133-125||Loss||-110||11 h 38 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Blazers TNT No-Brainer on Portland +4.5
I like the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. They want revenge from a 112-120 road loss to Dallas just six days ago on January 17th. Now they get their chance at revenge at home this time around.
The Blazers come in on two days’ rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go. Both Hassan Whiteside and Trevor Ariza will be available for them tonight, and CJ McCollum could return from an ankle injury as he has been upgraded to questionable.
The Mavericks lost a key piece in Dwight Powell in their last game against the Clippers. It’s a season-ending Achilles injury. Powell is one of the most underrated players in the NBA and does a lot for this team that goes unnoticed. He’s great in the pick-and-roll and shoots 63.8% from the field.
Plays on underdogs (Portland) - a cold team failing to cover 12 or more of their last 15 against an opponent that covered three of their last four are 72-27 (72.7%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Blazers Thursday.
|01-23-20||Michigan State v. Indiana +4||63-67||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
15* Michigan State/Indiana FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +4
Home-court advantage has been huge in the Big Ten this season. That has especially been the case for the Indiana Hoosiers, who are 11-1 at home and winning by 15.9 points per game this season. They have impressive wins over Florida State by 16 and Ohio State by 12 at home this year.
Michigan State has clearly been vulnerable on the road. The Spartans are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS in true road games this season. They only won by 3 at Seton Hall as 5.5-point favorites. They only won by 5 at Northwestern as 12-point favorites. And they were blasted by 29 at Purdue as similar 4.5-point favorites.
Indiana upset Michigan State in both meetings last season. They won 79-75 as 14-point road dogs and 63-62 as 6-point home dogs. And the Hoosiers are night and day better than they were a year ago as this is easily the best team that Archie Miller has had in his tenure. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Indiana is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus more boards than their opponents after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Michigan State is 0-6 ATS in all neutral/road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite. The Hoosiers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs. Take Indiana Thursday.
|01-23-20||Washington v. Utah||66-67||Loss||-105||8 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington PK
Washington (12-7) and Utah (10-7) have similar records this season, but there is a big difference between these teams. I have the Huskies power-rated 10 points better than Utah on a neutral, so I’ll gladly back them as a pick ‘em here tonight.
Washington has been one of the most unlucky teams in the country this season in close games. They rank 348th out of 353 teams in the ‘luck’ factor because of these close losses. Six of Washington’s seven losses have come by 7 points or fewer, including four by 4 points or less.
Utah also has seven losses this season, but five of those seven have come by 16 points or more and by an average of 19 points per game. That includes a 22-point loss to Coastal Carolina, a 39-point loss to Colorado, a 28-point loss to San Diego State, a 19-point loss to Arizona State and a 16-point loss to Arizona.
Utah is 0-6 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons. The Utes are 4-14-3 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog. Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a dog. The Utes are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games. Bet Washington Thursday.
|01-23-20||Wizards v. Cavs -2||124-112||Loss||-108||7 h 60 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers -2
This is a very favorable spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. They come in on two days’ rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go tonight. They should be able to handle the Washington Wizards at home.
The Wizards are coming off an overtime loss at Miami last night. Washington will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. The Wizards will not have much left in the tank after that overtime defeat.
Washington is 1-10 ATS in road games after allowing 130 points or more over the last two seasons. The Wizards are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Cavaliers are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of less than 40%. Take the Cavaliers Thursday.
|01-22-20||Jazz v. Warriors +8.5||129-96||Loss||-101||10 h 49 m||Show|
15* Jazz/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +8.5
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Golden State Warriors. They have lost 11 of their last 12 games overall. But they are getting healthier now and as a result they have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. And now they are catching too many points at home tonight.
Conversely, it’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Utah Jazz. They have won 17 of their last 19 games overall and have gone 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall. You are now clearly paying a tax to back the Jazz as 8.5-point road favorites here. And keep in mind that 15 of those 17 wins came against teams with losing records so they have feasted on a soft schedule.
The Warriors recently got D’Angelo Russell back from injury and now they will get both Draymond Green (8.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.6 APG) and Glenn Robinson III (12.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG) back from injury tonight. The Warriors will give the Jazz a run for their money in this one. After all, they’ve taken the Bucks, Clippers, Nuggets and Blazers to the wire during their 5-2 ATS run.
Golden State is 11-3 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. They only lost 109-113 and 106-114 at Utah in both meetings this season. The Warriors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Golden State is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.
|01-22-20||Rutgers v. Iowa -5.5||80-85||Loss||-105||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -5.5
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have been flying under the radar all season in going 14-4 and getting ranked for the first time since the 1970’s. But with that national ranking and record comes expectations that are going to be hard to live up to.
I think Rutgers suffers an emotional letdown after getting ranked. It’s also a good time to ’sell high’ on the Scarlet Knights after going 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall. Rutgers has done most of its damage at home this season. But the Scarlet Knights are just 1-4 in all games played away from home this season with their only win coming against lowly Nebraska.
Iowa is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 17.0 points per game. The Hawkeyes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in Big Ten home games, outscoring Minnesota, Maryland and Michigan by an average of 15.0 points per game. I would argue all three of those teams are better than Rutgers.
Iowa is 7-1 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Hawkeyes are 9-2 ATS as favorites this season. Iowa is 10-2 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons. The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games. Fran McCaffery is 10-1 ATS in home games off two straight games with 19 or more assists as the coach of Iowa. Bet Iowa Wednesday.
|01-22-20||76ers v. Raptors -7||Top||95-107||Win||100||7 h 7 m||Show|
20* 76ers/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto -7
The Raptors have been without five key players this season that have impacted them, especially in the last few weeks. Siakam has missed 11 games, VanVleet 10, Lowry 10, Gasol 12 and Powell 11. It’s amazing the Raptors have been able to compile a 29-14 record with all these injuries.
But the Raptors revenge got everyone back healthy about four games ago. It’s no coincidence they have gone 4-0 while winning those four games by an average of 13.3 points per game. And three of those four games were on the road. This is a dangerous Raptors team moving forward now that they are healthy.
The 76ers have also won four straight without Joel Embiid and remain without him. But the four wins came against the Nets (twice), Knicks and Bulls and they all went down to the wire in the 4th quarter. Now this is a big step up in class for the 76ers, and they won’t be able to hang with the healthy Raptors without Embiid.
The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The 76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight road games. The Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home meetings with Philadelphia. Toronto is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games on one days’ rest. The Raptors are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. division opponents. Take the Raptors Wednesday.
|01-22-20||Thunder v. Magic -1.5||120-114||Loss||-109||7 h 57 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -1.5
This is a big letdown spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. They came back from 15 points down to beat the Rockets on Monday, 112-107. That’s a rivalry game for them with the swapping of Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook in the offseason.
The Thunder won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Magic tonight. And they are dealing with a lot of injuries right now that will make matters worse for them. Terrance Ferguson and Abdel Nader are out, while Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel are both questionable.
The Magic are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they are 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They are coming off a 23-point road win at Charlotte. Nikola Vucevic will have his way in the paint against the Thunder if Adams is unable to go.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKC) - a good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%), after making 12 or more 3-pointers last game are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Orlando) - after allowing 85 points or less are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Magic Wednesday.
|01-22-20||Arkansas v. Mississippi State -4||70-77||Win||100||7 h 51 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State -4
Mississippi State had big expectations heading into 2019 with all the talent they returned. But they opened just 9-6 with some bad losses. However, they have certainly played up to their potential in their last two games. It has been two of the most impressive performances in the SEC all season.
The Bulldogs beat Missouri by 27 at home and Georgia by 32 at home in their last two games. They covered the spread by a combined 50 points in those two contests. And now I think we’re getting the Bulldogs cheap again at home Wednesday against the Arkansas Razorbacks.
The Razorbacks are coming off a tough home loss to Kentucky Saturday. I usually like fading teams after facing Kentucky because it’s always hard for them to get up for their next opponent. And Mississippi State owns Arkansas, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while covering the spread by a combined 64 points in those four games.
Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Arkansas) - off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that’s off a blowout home win by 20 points or more are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take Mississippi State Wednesday.
|01-22-20||Penn State v. Michigan -5||Top||72-63||Loss||-105||7 h 51 m||Show|
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -5
I love the spot for the Michigan Wolverines tonight. They’ll be highly motivated for a win off back-to-back road losses at Minnesota and Iowa. They have lost three of their last four overall with all three coming on the road.
Now the Wolverines return home tonight on four days’ rest and ready to get back in the win column. Michigan is 10-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Oregon in overtime. And the Wolverines have won eight of their last nine meetings with Penn State.
Penn State has been great at home but is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in Big Ten road games, losing by an average of 16.3 points per game. The Wolverines are 64th out of 353 teams in 3-point percentage (36%) while the Nittany Lions are 253rd defending the 3 (34.1%).
Michigan is 15-3 ATS off a loss over the last three seasons. The Wolverines are 10-2 ATS in conference home games over the last two years. Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet Michigan Wednesday.
|01-22-20||Syracuse +4.5 v. Notre Dame||84-82||Win||100||7 h 50 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +4.5
I love the spot for the Syracuse Orange tonight. They want revenge from an 87-88 home loss to Notre Dame on January 4th. They go from being 3.5-point favorites in that game to 4.5-point dogs in this rematch. I think the wrong team is favored here.
Syracuse has been playing its best basketball of the season since that loss to Notre Dame. The Orange are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, upsetting Virginia 63-55 as 7-point road dogs, crushing Boston College 76-50 as 11.5-point home favorites and upsetting Virginia Tech 71-69 as 4-point road dogs.
That was also a revenge game against VA Tech after losing at home to the Hokies. And home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series of late as the road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. The Orange have played their best basketball on the road this season with their upset wins over Virginia, VA Tech and also Georgia Tech 97-63.
Syracuse is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 road games off an upset win as a road underdog. The Orange are 8-1 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. The Orange are 11-3 ATS in conference road games over the last two seasons. Notre Dame is 0-6 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons. The Fighting Irish are 10-19 ATS in their last 29 home games. Notre Dame is 6-21-1 ATS in its last 28 games off an ATS win. Roll with Syracuse Wednesday.
|01-21-20||St. John's +8.5 v. Marquette||68-82||Loss||-110||9 h 59 m||Show|
15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John’s +8.5
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on St. John’s after losing five of their last six games overall. The Red Storm have been undervalued for over a month as they are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They have taken some good teams to the wire and have also beaten some very good teams.
Indeed, the Red Storm have upset wins over West Virginia and Arizona. They only lost by 2 to Butler, by 3 to Seton Hall, by 5 to Providence and by 8 to Xavier during this stretch. They only have one loss by more than 8 points in their last 13 games and only two losses by more than 8 points all season.
It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Marquette after two straight wins and covers over Xavier at home and Georgetown on the road. This is a Marquette team that had lost by 14 at Seton Hall and to Providence at home in their two games prior. It’s just not a Golden Eagles team that can be trusted to lay a big number like this against a quality opponent.
St. John’s is 8-2 ATS vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Golden Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take St. John’s Tuesday.
|01-21-20||Nebraska +15 v. Wisconsin||Top||68-82||Win||100||8 h 15 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +15
Wisconsin ranks 351st in adjusted tempo out of 353 teams this season. They play at a snail’s pace, which makes it very difficult for them to win by margin. I will gladly fade them as 15-point home favorites over Nebraska tonight.
It’s certainly a letdown spot for the Badgers as well. They have played four ranked teams in their last five games. They won’t be able to get up for Nebraska like they were in those five games, which were all decided by 12 points or fewer.
Nebraska is undervalued right now due to its 7-11 record. But the Huskers are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg. The Huskers have gone 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with only one loss by more than 12 points during this stretch. That includes upset wins over both Purdue and Iowa.
This has been a very closely-contested series through the years. Indeed, each of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 15 points or fewer. Nine were decided by 12 points per less. That makes for a 9-0-1 system backing the Huskers pertaining to this 15-point spread. Bet Nebraska Tuesday.
|01-21-20||Clippers v. Mavs -1.5||Top||110-107||Loss||-105||9 h 41 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Mavs NBA TV No-Brainer on Dallas -1.5
Kristaps Porzingis has missed the last 10 games for the Mavericks. There’s a great chance he returns tonight. The timing makes sense as the Mavericks come in on three days’ rest after last playing on Friday, giving Porzingis a few extra days to heal.
The Mavericks have been playing well without him in going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. And now they want revenge from a 99-114 loss to the Clippers in their first meeting this season. The Mavericks have gone 31-12 SU in their last 43 home meetings with the Clippers.
Los Angeles will remain without Paul George tonight. The Clippers haven’t exactly been juggernauts on the road this season. They are 11-9 SU but 9-11 ATS. And while they’ve won five of their last six coming in, the five wins have all come against teams with losing records in the Knicks (by 3), Warriors (by 9), Cavaliers, Magic and Pelicans (by 3). The Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Dallas is 17-5 ATS off a home game this season. Los Angeles is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games off a win. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Clippers. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.
|01-21-20||Illinois v. Purdue -5.5||79-62||Loss||-109||7 h 59 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Purdue -5.5
This is a great spot to back the Purdue Boilermakers. They are highly motivated for a win after losing three of their last four, and they want revenge from a 37-63 loss at Illinois in which they couldn’t make anything, shooting 25% as a team and 3-of-17 from 3-point range.
But all three of those losses came on the road. Purdue has won 15 straight Big Ten home games dating back to February 2018. They have won six straight home games against ranked teams. They are 8-1 at home this season including wins over Michigan State by 29 and Virginia by 29.
No. 21 Illinois is starting to get some love from oddsmakers after winning four straight and moving into the Top 25 for the first time this season. But they were fortunate to win their last three, beating Wisconsin by 1 on the road, and Rutgers by 3 and Northwestern by 4 at home. Their luck runs out tonight against a hungry Boilermakers squad.
Purdue is 9-2 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons. Purdue is 7-0 SU in its last six home meetings with Illinois winning by 12.1 points per game on average. The Boilermakers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. Purdue is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Purdue Tuesday.
|01-21-20||Kansas State +17 v. Kansas||60-81||Loss||-110||6 h 15 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +17
This number has gotten out of control for a rivalry game between Kansas and Kansas State. I’ll gladly side with the road underdog Wildcats in what should be a defensive battle with limited possessions and that favors the big road dog.
The Wildcats are 8-9 this season and undervalued because of their record. But keep in mind they have six losses by 8 points or fewer. All nine losses have come by 14 points or less as well, so they haven’t lost by a margin this big all season. And they’re coming off a huge confidence-building 84-68 upset of West Virginia as 7-point dogs.
West Virginia took Kansas to the wire in a 53-60 road loss at 10-point dogs. Baylor won outright at Kansas by 12 as 7.5-point dogs. Those were the Jayhawks’ last two home games. They are actually playing better on the road than at home this season. They’ve consistently been overvalued at home.
Each of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by 16 points or less, making for a 7-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 17-point spread. The Wildcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. Kansas State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off an upset win by 15 points or more as an underdog. Roll with Kansas State Tuesday.
|01-20-20||Warriors +6.5 v. Blazers||124-129||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +6.5
The Golden State Warriors have been much more competitive here of late. They have recent losses to the Bucks and Clippers by single digits as double-digit dogs. They upset the Magic last time out as 6-point dogs and they took the Nuggets to overtime as dog.
I think the Warriors can hang with a depleted Portland Trail Blazers team that is missing Nurkic, Hood, Collins, Labissiere, McCollum and Ariza. These injuries are a big reason the Blazers are just 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. And it’s a tired Blazers team that hasn’t has two consecutive days off since Christmas, making matters worse.
The Warriors are 20-9 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last two seasons. The Blazers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Portland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games off a loss. Take the Warriors Monday.
|01-20-20||Oklahoma +10 v. Baylor||Top||57-61||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
20* Oklahoma/Baylor ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma +10
The No. 1 ranked Baylor Bears have won 14 straight to improve to 15-1 on the season. They have started 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in Big 12 play as well. With all this success comes expectations from oddsmakers that are hard to live up to, and thus we’ll ’sell high’ on the Bears.
Baylor had no business covering against Oklahoma State on Saturday. They trailed the entire way against a Cowboys team that had previously been 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in Big 12 play with blowout loss after blowout loss. But they pulled away in the closing minutes to win 75-68 and covered as 5.5-point favorites.
Oklahoma has opened 3-2 in Big 12 play with an impressive upset win at Texas by 10 as 3-point underdogs. They blew out TCU 83-63 at home on Saturday and should still be fresh for this game against Baylor because of it. The Sooners are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall, though, so I think this is a good opportunity to ‘buy low’ on them.
Plays on road dogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Oklahoma) off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference opponent against a team that is off two straight conference wins are 59-28 (67.8%) ATS since 1997. The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet Oklahoma Monday.
|01-20-20||Pelicans v. Grizzlies -2.5||Top||126-116||Loss||-109||5 h 5 m||Show|
20* Pelicans/Grizzlies TNT No-Brainer on Memphis -2.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They are playing their best basketball of the season as they’ve upset the likes of the Clippers by 26 on the road as well as the Spurs by 13 and the Rockets by 11 at home during this stretch.
It’s going to be a great atmosphere on Martin Luther King Day in this home game against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. No city celebrates MLK day quite like Memphis does as it means a lot more to their community than most with his assassination taking place in Memphis.
The Pelicans are also playing well, but this is a very tough spot for them. They are coming off an OT win against the Jazz followed by a 3-point loss to the Clippers at home. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Grizzlies, who are playing on two days’ rest and just their 2nd game in 6 days.
Memphis is 8-0 ATS off two straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots over the last two seasons. The Pelicans, who ranks 29th in scoring defense at 117.7 points per game, won’t be able to cool off the Grizzlies tonight. Bet the Grizzlies Monday.
|01-20-20||Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 230||112-107||Win||100||5 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Rockets UNDER 230
There is definitely some bad blood between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets due to the teams swapping Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul in the offseason. That bad blood shows more with the effort on the defensive end than anything.
The Thunder and Rockets have played twice this season already, so they are very familiar with one another. And both games went UNDER this 230-point total with a 116-112 final in the first meeting for 228 combined points and a 113-92 final in the 2nd meeting for 205 combined points.
In fact, 13 of the last 14 meetings between the Thunder and Rockets have resulted in 229 or fewer combined points. That makes for a 13-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s 230-point total. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
|01-20-20||Magic v. Hornets +4.5||106-83||Loss||-109||5 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +4.5
The Charlotte Hornets are highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost six straight coming in against a brutal schedule with home games against the Pacers and Raptors, as well as four road games against the Jazz, Nuggets, Blazers & Suns.
Not to mention, the Hornets had road games against the Cavs and Mavericks in the two games prior where they pulled off two upsets. They get a break in their schedule here hosting the Orlando Magic and coming in on four days’ rest having last played on January 15th.
The Magic are in a very tough spot. They will be playing their 6th straight road game tonight and their 4th road game in 6 days. They are without starting PG D.J. Augustin right now while the Hornets are fully healthy. I really believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup.
The Hornets simply own the Magic. Charlotte is 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS in its last 15 meetings with Orlando. The Hornets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Hornets Monday.
|01-19-20||Packers v. 49ers -7||Top||20-37||Win||100||149 h 53 m||Show|
20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -7
I’ve been riding the San Francisco 49ers all season after picking up on the fact that they are the best team in the NFL. No team has put up better numbers on both sides of the ball than they have, and the numbers haven’t lied. They are 14-3 this season with all three losses coming on the final play of the game. That’s how close they are to being 17-0.
The reason I say the 49ers are the best team in the NFL is because they are the only team that is Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense. The 49ers were 4th in the regular season in total offense at 381.1 yards per game while also scoring 29.9 points per game, which ranked 2nd in the NFL. The 49ers were 2nd in the NFL in total defense during the regular season, giving up 281.8 yards per game and only 19.4 points per game.
The 49ers have been an immovable object when Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander have been on the field at the same time defensively. Opposing quarterbacks had a QBR of 3 during the regular season in this situation. And the 49ers returned Ford, Alexander and also Jaquisky Tartt last week from injuries. That trio played a big role in limiting the Vikings to just 10 points, 7 first downs and 147 total yards. They are back to being the best defense in the NFL when healthy now, which is a scary proposition for the Packers.
After all, the 49ers already showed what they could do against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers when their defense was healthy in a 37-8 home win earlier this season. They held the Packers to just 8 points and 198 total yards. They held Rodgers to just 3.2 yards per attempt passing as he went 20-of-33 for 104 yards. No team has shut down Rodgers like the 49ers did in that game.
Both teams are 14-3, but there’s a huge difference between them statistically. The 49ers outgained their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game during the regular season. The Packers were 18th in total offense at 345.5 yards per game and 18th in total defense at 352.6 yards per game. They were actually outgained by 7.1 yards per game during the regular season, which is the sign of a below .500 team rather than one that is 14-3. They were simply fortunate in close games all season as they went a ridiculous 9-1 in one-score games. Their luck runs out this week as this game won’t be close.
I expect the 49ers to shut down the Packers, and I also expect Jimmy G and the 49ers rushing attack to do whatever they want against this Packers' defense. The Packers are in trouble defensively because they can’t stop the run. They ranked 24th in the NFL in giving up 4.7 rushing yards per carry in the regular season. The 49ers had the 2nd-best rushing attack in the league at 144.1 yards per game. Green Bay has also allowed touchdowns in the red zone on 83% of opponents’ opportunities the last three weeks. Seattle scored all three times it got into the red zone last week.
The 49ers are 14-3 but nine of those wins have come by 9 points or more, so they have hard no problem getting margin this season. They are outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game at home this year. The Packers have been outgained by 34.1 yards per game on the road this season and are averaging just 21.4 points and 305.1 yards per game on the highway. They won’t be able to keep up with the 49ers, who are better across the board on both sides of the football.
Plays against road underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 40-17 (70.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The fraudulent Packers will be exposed by the best team in the NFL for a second time this season. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better. A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick. And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games. It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!
|01-19-20||Heat v. Spurs +1.5||Top||102-107||Win||100||5 h 50 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on San Antonio Spurs +1.5
I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight. They want revenge from a 100-106 loss at Miami just a few days ago on January 15th. Now they get their chance at revenge just four days later at home this time around.
Adding to the Spurs’ motivation is the fact that they are coming off a 120-121 home loss to the Hawks in which they blew a 15-point lead in the 4th quarter. They had been playing some great basketball prior to those two games in going 9-4 ATS in their previous 13 games.
San Antonio is 32-8 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last two season. The Spurs are 9-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road favorites. San Antonio is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a loss. The Spurs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as home underdogs. Roll with the Spurs Sunday.
|01-19-20||Titans v. Chiefs -7||24-35||Win||100||88 h 34 m||Show|
15* Titans/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -7
I’ve been riding the Tennessee Titans since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. They’ve made me a lot of money down the stretch, including in each of their first two playoff games with upset wins over the Patriots and Ravens. It pains me to go against them now, but I have to do it because I see this game playing out totally differently. The Chiefs are going to roll in the AFC Championship.
The Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL when healthy and it’s not really even close. That showed last week when they erased a 24-0 deficit in one half and took a 28-24 lead by halftime against the Texans. They went on to win 51-31 as double-digit favorites. Now they are only laying 7 points here to Tennessee compared to the 10 they were laying against Houston. So I think there’s some value here.
Tennessee because the first team in NFL history to get outgained by 230-plus yards and win a playoff game last week. They gave up 530 yards to the Ravens and only gained 300 last week, yet still managed to win 28-12. That is a complete fluke. Baltimore lsat the turnover battle 3-0 and was stopped on 4th down four times. That’s essentially seven turnovers. It’s one of the most misleading finals in the history of the NFL.
Speaking of misleading, the Titans also beat the Chiefs 35-32 at home in their first meeting this season despite not having any business winning that game either. The Chiefs had a 530 to 371 yard edge and a 28-19 edge in first downs in that game. And it was the first game back for Patrick Mahomes from injury. If the Chiefs approach anywhere near 530 yards again, they are going to win in a blowout.
Derrick Henry is a beast and certainly a concern. But I have a good feeling the Chiefs are going to be leading the whole way in this game and make Henry a non-factor. This game is going to come down to whether or not Ryan Tannehill can match Mahomes score for score. And while I’ve praised Tannehill a lot this season and think he’s underrated, not even he can match Mahomes score for score. Deshaun Watson couldn’t do it last week, and Tannehill won’t be able to do it this week.
The Chiefs are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, winning by an average of 17 points per game and covering by an average of 10 points per game. The tough spot for the Titans won’t allow them to hang around, either. They will be playing their 4th straight road game. The last five teams to be playing their 4th straight road game in the NFL have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS. And they just played two physical wars against the Patriots and Ravens the last two weeks, which will have taken a lot out of them.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - off two consecutive road wins, winning between 60% & 75% of their games on the season are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas City) - after playing a home game against an opponent that’s off a two-game road trip are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Titans are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games with a total of 49.5 or higher. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better. A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick. And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games. It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!
|01-18-20||Kings +9.5 v. Jazz||Top||101-123||Loss||-104||19 h 57 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +9.5
The Utah Jazz had their 10-game winning streak come to an end with a 132-138 (OT) loss at New Orleans on Thursday. I always like fading teams that have their long winning streaks come to an end because it’s the kind of loss that seems to beat them twice. They take a breathe of air and don’t play well in the next game out.
While it is impressive that the Jazz have won 15 of their last 17 games overall, keep in mind it has come against one of the easiest schedules in the NBA. In fact, 14 of those 15 wins came against teams with losing records. Now they are way overvalued and it’s time to ’sell high’ on them.
The Jazz would have to beat the Kings by double-digits to beat us now, which is asking way too much. Especially since the Kings are almost back to 100% health with only Richaun Holmes still sidelined. They get Bogdan Bogdanovic back from an injury Saturday and recently got back Marvin Bagley and a few others. The Kings will be a dangerous team moving forward.
The Jazz have to be a tired team as they haven’t had two days off in a row since over New Year’s Eve. And they are coming off a three-game road trip. The Kings will be playing just their 4th game in 11 days and will be by far the fresher team tonight.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - a hot team having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Kings are 15-5 ATS when playing 4 or fewer games in 10 days over the last two seasons. Sacramento is 24-9 ATS after losing three of its last four games over the last two seasons. The Kings are 12-3 ATS in road games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two years. Sacramento is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%. The Kings are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs. Sacramento is 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 meetings in Utah. Take the Kings Saturday.
|01-18-20||Temple v. SMU -5||52-68||Win||100||18 h 50 m||Show|
15* Temple/SMU ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on SMU -5
The SMU Mustangs are coming off two straight road losses to East Carolina and Houston. Now they are back home and highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Temple Owls. I love the spot for the Mustangs tonight.
SMU has one of the biggest home/road splits in the country in recent seasons. They have a tremendous home-court advantage as they are 9-1 at home this season and winning by 13.3 points per game.
Temple is in a letdown spot off its upset home win over Wichita State as 4-point dogs. After all, the Owls were 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games. They lost by 14 as 9-point home favorites over Tulane, by 4 as 3-point home dogs to Houston and by 26 at Tulsa as 2.5-point favorites. So that win over Wichita State was an aberration, and they caught the Shockers in a favorable spot as they were coming off an OT win at UConn.
The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. SMU is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last three home meetings with Temple with the three wins coming by 23, 14 and 9 points. The Mustangs are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 Saturday games. SMU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%. Bet SMU Saturday.
|01-18-20||76ers -3.5 v. Knicks||90-87||Loss||-109||17 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5
I know the Philadelphia 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight after beating the Bulls 100-89 last night. But the line has been adjusted too much for it as the 76ers are only 3.5-point favorites over the lowly New York Knicks tonight.
The 76ers shouldn’t be all that tired anyway considering they have had a lot of time off in January. In fact, it will be just the 8th game in 18 days in the month of January for the 76ers. They should have enough left in the tank to make easy work of the Knicks tonight.
The Knicks have some injury problems right now as they are missing RJ Barrett and Reggie Bullock and Dennis Smith Jr. are questionable. They did just get back Marcus Morris, but it didn’t matter in a 98-121 home loss to the Suns on Thursday. The Knicks are now just 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall with each of their last five losses coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 23 points per game.
The 76ers have owned the Knicks going 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings with all 10 wins by 3 points or more and nine by 5 points or more. Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Roll with the 76ers Saturday.
|01-18-20||Louisville v. Duke -7||79-73||Loss||-110||16 h 50 m||Show|
15* Louisville/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Duke -7
The Duke Blue Devils are coming off a shocking 72-79 loss at Clemson as 10.5-point favorites. It’s safe to say they will return home highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Louisville Cardinals. They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against 11th-ranked Louisville.
I believe Louisville is a fraud. The Cardinals are coming off two straight narrow wins over Notre Dame and Pitt, needing OT to beat Pitt. And they have recent losses to Florida State by 13 at home, by 13 to Texas Tech on a neutral and by 8 at Kentucky. Duke is the best team in the country and should win at home by more than 7 points today.
The Blue Devils are 9-1 at home this season and winning by 23.9 points per game. The Cardinals are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Blue Devils are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games off a loss. Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with Duke Saturday.
|01-18-20||Houston v. Wichita State -3||Top||65-54||Loss||-109||14 h 51 m||Show|
20* Houston/Wichita State AAC No-Brainer on Wichita State -3
The Wichita State Shockers are 15-2 this season and a legit threat to win the American Athletic this season. They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the Houston Cougars today.
The Shockers will be highly motivated for a win after a loss at Temple. Now they are back home where they are 12-0 this season and outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game. They have wins over the likes of Oklahoma (by 5), VCU (by 10), Ole Miss (by 20) and Memphis (by 9) at home this season.
The Houston Cougars are getting too much respect from oddsmakers after feasting on an easy schedule and going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Only two of those were true road games, and they were fortunate to win by 4 at Temple while also getting upset at Tulsa as 6.5-point favorites. This is a Houston team that lost a lot of talent from last season and only brought back one starter.
The Shockers are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Wichita State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. The Shockers are 22-10-3 ATS in their last 35 games overall. Roll with Wichita State Saturday.
|01-18-20||Oregon -1.5 v. Washington||64-61||Win||100||14 h 35 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon -1.5
I love the spot for the Oregon Ducks tonight. They are coming off a shocking upset loss at Washington State as 9-point favorites. It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win at Washington to make up for it tonight.
The Huskies are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall. And this is an Oregon team that they haven’t handled in the past. The Ducks are 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Huskies.
One matchup advantage that is going to be huge for Oregon is their pressure defense up against a sloppy Washington offense. The Huskies rank 284th in turnovers at 15.1 per game. Oregon plays a pressure defense that will capitalize on those turnovers.
Washington is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games off two straight games where it was called for 15 or fewer fouls. The Ducks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games. Oregon is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games vs. a team with a winning record. Oregon is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games overall. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog. Take Oregon Saturday.
|01-18-20||Tulsa v. Tulane||67-54||Loss||-110||12 h 51 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Line Mistake on Tulane PK
Tulane had covered four straight prior to a 55-74 upset home loss to UCF. It was a predictable letdown off their 65-51 upset win as 9-point dogs at Temple a few nights before. They also upset Cincinnati as 8-point home dogs and covered as double-digit road dogs to Memphis and UConn during this stretch.
Now the Green Wave will be highly motivated for a win after that letdown against UCF. And we are getting them at a tremendous value in a situation where they just have to win to cover at home tonight against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.
Few teams have had bigger home/road splits than Tulsa in recent years. While the Golden Hurricane are 9-2 at home this year, they are just 2-4 in all road games. Their only road wins came against poor ECU and Vanderbilt teams. They lost by 14 at UT-Arlington, lost at Kansas State, lost by 19 at Arkansas and lost by a whopping 31 at Cincinnati. That’s the same Cincinnati team that Tulane already beat.
Tulane is 3-0 and winning by 13.3 points per game against common opponents of Tulsa, which is 2-1 against those same three teams and only winning by 0.6 points per game. Tulane is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% this season. The Green Wave are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. Bet Tulane Saturday.
|01-18-20||Auburn v. Florida -1.5||Top||47-69||Win||100||11 h 21 m||Show|
20* Auburn/Florida SEC No-Brainer on Florida -1.5
Auburn finally had its 15-game winning streak to start the season come to an end with a 64-83 loss at Alabama on Wednesday. Now bubble has burst and I always like fading teams in their next game out after their extended winning streak has come to an end. They seem to let a team beat them twice in this situation.
Florida will be the fresher team after making easy work of Ole Miss 71-55 at home on Tuesday as they come in on three days’ rest while Auburn only comes in on two days’ rest. The Gators are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to a Top 10 Florida State team.
Auburn hasn’t won at Florida since 1996. In fact, the Gators are 12-0 SU in their last 12 home meetings with Auburn. So they basically just have to win to cover this short number at home tonight. And you can bet the Gators want revenge from a loss to Auburn in the SEC Championship last year. Take Florida Saturday.
|01-18-20||South Carolina v. Texas A&M -1.5||Top||81-67||Loss||-109||11 h 51 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M -1.5
Texas A&M is flying under the radar because their season-long stats aren’t a true picture of how well this team is playing right now. They got off to a rough start in Buzz Williams’ first season, but now they have turned a corner and are playing better than most teams in the SEC right now.
The Aggies have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall. Their only losses came on the road at Arkansas by 10 as 14.5-point dogs and at home to LSU by 4 in OT as 6.5-point dogs. They upset Vanderbilt by 19 as 3.5-point road dogs, beat Ole Miss by 10 as 3-point home dogs and also upset Oregon State by 15 as 6.5-point home dogs.
South Carolina is in a huge letdown spot after banking in a 3 at the buzzer to beat Kentucky at home as 6.5-point dogs on Wednesday. Now they only have two days to get ready for Texas A&M, while the Aggies last played on Tuesday. The Gamecocks had lost three straight prior to that Kentucky win, including getting upset by Stetson 56-63 as 22.5-point home favorites.
South Carolina is 0-6 ATS in road games off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Texas A&M is 10-2 ATS off a conference loss over the last two seasons. The Gamecocks are 1-10 ATS off two straight games where their opponent was called for 22 or more fouls over the last three seasons. Frank Martin is 1-8 ATS in road games off a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of South Carolina. Buzz Williams is 12-3 ATS in home games off a home loss to a conference opponent in all games as a head coach. Bet Texas A&M Saturday.
|01-17-20||Michigan v. Iowa -4.5||83-90||Win||100||8 h 1 m||Show|
15* Michigan/Iowa Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -4.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes want to avenge their 91-103 loss at Michigan earlier this season on December 6th. Now the Hawkeyes get the Wolverines at home this time around and it will be a completely different story.
Iowa is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in eight games since that loss to Michigan. That includes 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home with wins over Minnesota by 20, Kennesaw State by 42 and Maryland by 18. They also pulled off road wins over Iowa State, Cincinnati and Northwestern during this stretch.
The Hawkeyes are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS a home this season and winning by 18.3 points per game. The Wolverines are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games losing by 15 at Louisville, by 9 at Illinois, by 18 at Michigan State and by 8 at Minnesota. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. Take Iowa Friday.
|01-17-20||Cavs v. Grizzlies -8||109-113||Loss||-108||7 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -8
No team is playing better than the Memphis Grizzlies right now. They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with all six wins coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 14 points per game. That includes wins over the Clippers (by 26), Spurs (by 13) and Rockets (by 11).
Now the Grizzlies are rested with two days off since last defeating the Rockets on Tuesday. They should be able to handle their business against a Cleveland Cavaliers team that is coming off two straight losses by 29 and 25 points. The Cavaliers will be playing their 5th straight road game in this difficult spot.
Memphis is 10-2 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games this season. The Cavaliers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games off an ATS loss. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - revenging a loss where opponent scores 100 or more points, off a home win by 10 points or more are 72-39 (64.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.
|01-17-20||Bulls v. 76ers -7||Top||89-100||Win||100||6 h 7 m||Show|
20* Bulls/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia -7
The Philadelphia 76ers are 19-2 at home this season and winning by 9.8 points per game. They have been a good bet at home even without Joel Embiid. They won by 11 over the Nets and also by 11 over the Celtics in their last two home games without Embiid.
Now the 76ers should be able to cover this 7-point spread against the Chicago Bulls at home tonight. With this game being played on National TV on ESPN, they won’t take the Bulls lightly. The 76ers are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Bulls, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings winning by 16, 19 and 14 points.
The Bulls are just 2-7 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only wins coming against the Pistons and Wizards, two of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference. Six of those seven losses came by 7 points or more.
The Bulls are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games following a win. Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%. Bet the 76ers Friday.
|01-17-20||Wolves v. Pacers UNDER 216.5||114-116||Loss||-101||6 h 7 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Pacers UNDER 216.5
This is one of my favorite situations to bet an UNDER in the NBA. It’s a home-and-home situation between the Timberwolves and Pacers. So they are very familiar with each other playing the same opponent in back-to-back games, which always favors defense.
Indiana beat Minnesota 104-99 on the road on Wednesday for 203 combined points. That total was set at 217.5, and oddsmakers have hardly adjusted dropping this total just one point to 216.5. It’s now enough for an adjustment, especially when you consider the Pacers actually shot 51.8% in that first game and still only scored 104 points.
Indiana is 40-21 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last two seasons. The Pacers are 24-6 UNDER in home games with a total of 210 to 219.5 over the last two years. The UNDER is 9-2 in Timberwolves last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-17-20||Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 131.5||Top||55-67||Win||100||6 h 1 m||Show|
20* Wisconsin/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on UNDER 131.5
The Wisconsin Badgers are built for UNDERS and have been for years. They rank 351st out of 353 teams in adjusted tempo this season. They will try and slow this game to a snail’s pace to give themselves the best chance of hanging with the Spartans tonight.
The UNDER is 3-1 in Wisconsin’s last four games overall with the three UNDERS resulting in combined scores of 110 points against Maryland, 107 points against Penn State and 118 points against Ohio State. Expect more of the same tonight.
The UNDER is also 3-1 in Michigan State’s last four games overall. They combined for 132 points with Illinois, 132 points with Minnesota and 113 points with Purdue. They are giving up just 59.8 points per game at home this season, while Wisconsin is allowing just 60.1 points per game on the road.
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 122, 126, 123 and 131 points. As you can see, all four went UNDER this 131.5-point total. The UNDER is 38-13 in Badgers last 51 games as a road underdog. The UNDER is 7-1 in Badgers last eight road games. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-16-20||Colorado v. Arizona State +2.5||Top||68-61||Loss||-115||9 h 3 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +2.5
Arizona State lost to Colorado in the season opener in Shanghai, China. That game didn’t count in the conference standings, but you know the Sun Devils want revenge on the Buffaloes in Temple, AZ this time around.
The Sun Devils are certainly happy to be playing their first Pac-12 home game tonight following a brutal three games on the road. They have played three of the best teams in the conference in Arizona, Oregon State and Oregon all on the highway and did well just to win one of those games considering they were double-digit dogs in two and 6-point dogs in the other.
Conversely, Colorado has opened with three straight home games in Pac-12 play. They beat Oregon and Utah but were upset by Oregon State as 7.5-point favorites. Now the Buffaloes will be playing just their 3rd true road game of the season. They lost by 14 at Kansas and won by 8 at Colorado State.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings. Colorado is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games off two consecutive games as a home favorite. The Buffaloes are 14-37-1 ATS in their last 52 road games. The Sun Devils are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog. Bet Arizona State Thursday.
|01-16-20||Jazz v. Pelicans +5||132-138||Win||100||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans +5
Two red hot teams square off tonight when the Utah Jazz visit the New Orleans Pelicans. But only one of these hot teams is getting too much respect from oddsmakers, and that’s the Jazz as the 5-point road favorite.
The Jazz are playing great with 10 straight wins and 15 of their last 16 overall. But with that success comes expectations from oddsmakers that are tough to live up to. But keep in mind that 14 of those 15 wins came against teams with losing records, so they have been feasting on an easy schedule.
The Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Their only losses came on the road to the Lakers and Celtics and at home to the Jazz. Well, that was a 126-128 loss to the Jazz on January 6th, so now the Pelicans are going to be highly motivated for a win in the rematch tonight just 10 days later.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - a hot team having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. New Orleans gets Brandon Ingram and Derrick Favors back from injury tonight and JJ Redick could be back as well. Roll with the Pelicans Thursday.
|01-16-20||UAB v. Florida International -2||68-93||Win||102||7 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Florida International -2
The FIU Golden Panthers are one of my favorite teams in the country. They returned basically everyone and they play a fun style at a fast pace while constantly applying pressure to their opponents.
The Golden Panthers rank 20th in scoring offense at 80.2 points per game. They have been tremendous at home, going 7-0 while outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game. Off two straight road losses, the Golden Panthers return home highly motivated for a win tonight.
UAB is coming off two straight home wins over Western Kentucky and Marshall. Now they hit the road where the Blazers have gone 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS with their only win coming at Troy. They lost to Charlotte by 7 and Old Dominion by 5 in their last two road games, two teams that aren’t as good as FIU.
FIU is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off two or more consecutive ATS losses. The Golden Panthers are 15-4 ATS in tier last 19 home games off two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more. FIU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Take Florida International Thursday.
|01-15-20||Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech -1||Top||78-74||Loss||-110||8 h 4 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech -1
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets basically just have to win to cover tonight at home against Notre Dame. I expect them to do just that with how well they are playing coming into this game.
Despite facing a brutal schedule with four road games in their last five, the Yellow Jackets have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in those five games. They upset Hawaii by 17 and UNC by 13 on the road and crushed Boston College by 19 on the road. Their lone home game was against Duke, and they played them down to the wire only losing by 9 as 11.5-point dogs.
Notre Dame has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season. While the Fighting Irish are 10-6 SU, they are just 5-9-2 ATS this season. They are 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their five games played away from home with their only win coming at Syracuse by a single point.
The Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs. The Yellow Jackets are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites. Georgia Tech is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Yellow Jackets are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with Notre Dame. Georgia Tech is 10-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. Take Georgia Tech Wednesday.
|01-15-20||Xavier v. Marquette -3||65-85||Win||100||8 h 35 m||Show|
15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3
I like the spot for Marquette Wednesday night. They are coming off two straight losses to Providence and Seton Hall and will return home highly motivated for a victory tonight. They are 10-2 at home this season with double-digit victories over Villanova, Purdue and USC.
Marquette is a tremendous shooting team that shoot 40% from 3-point range, which ranks 9th in the country. Five of their top six scorers all shoot at least 37% from distance. Xavier is a poor shooting team at 29.7% on 3-pointers, which ranks 315th in the country.
The Musketeers’ poor shooting is a big reason they’ve been so inconsistent. While they are 12-5 SU, they are just 4-12-1 ATS. They have lost three of their last four including double-digits home losses to both Creighton (by 12) and Seton Hall (by 12) as favorites. Marquette won both meetings last year by 18 points at home and by 5 points on the road.
Marquette is 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 4.5 points or less this season. Xavier is 2-9 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Musketeers are 1-8 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons. Take Marquette Wednesday.
|01-15-20||Nets v. 76ers -7||Top||106-117||Win||100||7 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia 76ers -7
The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off two straight road losses to the Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks. They return home highly motivated for a victory tonight and pretty rested as this will be just their 6th game in 15 days.
I know the 76ers are without Joel Embiid, but they won their last home game 109-98 over the Boston Celtics as 1-point favorites without him. The 76ers are now 18-2 at home this season and winning by 9.7 points per game. Philadelphia is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in then last five meetings while winning by 22 points in each of their last two home meetings with Brooklyn.
It’s a bad spot for the Brooklyn Nets. They are coming off a 107-118 home loss to Utah last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. The Nets are just 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The Nets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games playing on zero rest. Brooklyn is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog. Philadelphia is 30-16 ATS in home games revenging a loss over the last three seasons. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.
|01-15-20||Evansville v. Indiana State -10||42-65||Win||100||7 h 34 m||Show|
15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State -10
Two weeks have passed since Evansville placed coach Walter McCarty on leave to determine whether he violated Title IX. The distractions have taken their toll on the Purple Aces as they have opened 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in MVC play, losing by an average of 17.3 points per game.
Indiana State is a legitimate contender to win the Missouri Valley this season. It’s a veteran team that returned four starters and has now gone 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Drake and Northern Iowa, two of the best teams in the conference.
Indiana State is 6-0 at home this season and winning by 11.7 points per game. They beat Illinois State by 13 and Southern Illinois by 12 in their first two home games to open conference play. Another double-digit win can be expected tonight.
Indiana State is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Evansville, including a 23-point home win last year. The Purple Aces are 0-8 ATS in their last eight Wednesday games. Evansville is 0-6 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season, while Indiana State is 9-2 ATS in home games with a total of 130 to 139.5 over the last two years. Roll with Indiana State Wednesday.
|01-15-20||Tennessee v. Georgia -2.5||63-80||Win||100||7 h 34 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia -2.5
The Georgia Bulldogs are highly motivated for a win tonight off two straight losses to two of the best teams in the country in Auburn and Kentucky. Now they are back home tonight and hosting a Tennessee team they can handle.
Georgia is 8-1 at home this season and winning by 14.9 points per game. Their only home loss came to Kentucky. And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings. Georgia is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Tennessee.
The Vols lost almost everyone from last year’s team that made a run in the NCAA Tournament. They did return Lamaonte Turner, but now he’s out for the season. His loss has been huge as he averages 12.3 points and 7.1 assists per game this season.
The Vols are just 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games with their only wins coming against Jacksonville State, South Carolina (by 1) and Missouri. They lost by 14 at home to LSU, by 20 at home to Wisconsin, by 4 at home to Memphis and by 12 at Cincinnati. The Vols are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off a win. The Bulldogs are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off a loss by more than 20 points. Bet Georgia Wednesday.
|01-14-20||Missouri v. Mississippi State -2||45-72||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -2.5
It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight. They have been a disappointment compared to preseason expectations with just a 9-6 start despite returning four starters from a team that was very good last year.
It’s safe to say the Bulldogs will be highly motivated for a victory. They have lost three straight against an absolutely brutal schedule to open SEC play. They lost at home to unbeaten Auburn and on the road to very good Alabama and LSU teams. This home game against Missouri is easily their best chance to get their first conference win to date.
Missouri is in a letdown spot off an upset home win over Florida over the weekend. That followed up a 12-point loss at Kentucky and a 10-point home loss to Tennessee, so it really came out of nowhere. They Tigers also lost at home to Charleston Southern and on a neutral by double-digits to both Oklahoma and Butler. I think they’re getting too much respect for that Florida win, which is by far their best victory of the season.
Mississippi State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Missouri. The Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Ben Howland is 15-5 ATS after losing three of their last four games as the coach of the Bulldogs. Roll with Mississippi State Tuesday.
|01-14-20||Rockets v. Grizzlies +5.5||Top||110-121||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Grizzlies NBA TV No-Brainer on Memphis +5.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are playing their best basketball of the season. They are 12-6 SU & 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall. They have won five straight coming in including road upsets of the Clippers and Suns.
The Houston Rockets are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. They lost at New Orleans by 15, at Golden State by 12 as 11-point favorites, at Oklahoma City by 21 as 1-3-point favorites and failed to cover in a win at Atlanta as 7.5-point favorites. Now the Rockets will be without Russell Westbrook tonight due to a rest day.
Memphis is 15-5 ATS in home games when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons. The Rockets are 12-28-1 ATS in their last 41 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.
|01-14-20||UCF v. Tulane -1||Top||74-55||Loss||-110||7 h 26 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulane -1
The Tulane Green Wave are one of the most improved teams in the country this season under first-year head coach Ron Hunter. He was great at IUPUI and Georgia State before and now he’s doing big things at Tulane already.
Indeed, the Green Wave are off to a 10-6 start this season. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall against the cream of the crop in the AAC. They covered at Memphis as 15-point dogs, upset Cincinnati as 8-point home dogs, covered as 10-point dogs at UConn and upset Temple by 14 as 9-point road dogs. The Green Wave are 6-0 at home this season and winning by 15.0 points per game.
UCF lost all but one starter that helped them make some noise in the NCAA Tournament last year. The Knights aren’t close to the same team they were last season. They are just 9-7 with five straight losses coming in. They lost at Houston by 15, but 4 at home to Temple and by 14 at home to Cincinnati. That gives these teams a few common opponents that show Tulane is the superior squad.
The Green Wave are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. Tulane is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games overall. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Tulane Tuesday.
|01-14-20||Suns -3 v. Hawks||110-123||Loss||-109||7 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix Suns -3
The Phoenix Suns have gotten healthy and are starting to play like they did to start the season. The Suns are 5-3 in their last eight games overall. They have pulled road upsets over the Kings and Blazers during this stretch.
Now the Suns go on the road and fave a hapless Atlanta Hawks team that is just 2-15 SU in its last 17 games overall. The Hawks have lost four straight with some bad losses by 10 at Washington and by 22 at Brooklyn in their last two games. Injuries are really taking their toll on the Hawks With Fernando, Parker and Len out while both Hunter and Young are questionable.
The Suns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Hawks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Suns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Atlanta and 30-14 ATS in their last 44 meetings overall. Take the Suns Tuesday.
|01-14-20||LSU v. Texas A&M +6.5||89-85||Win||100||6 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +6.5
Buzz Williams took the job at Texas A&M after turning around Virginia Tech. And after a slow start to the season, Williams has the Aggies playing their best basketball of the year entering SEC play.
Texas A&M has gone 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall. Their only loss came on the road by 10 to Arkansas as 14.5-point dogs. They beat Oregon State by 15 as 6.5-point home dogs, upset Ole Miss by 10 as 3-point home dogs and crushed Vanderbilt by 19 as 3.5-point road dogs.
Now the Aggies are once again getting zero respect from oddsmakers as 6.5-point home dogs to LSU. The Tigers are getting too much respect for their four-game winning streak, which features non-covers in narrow home wins over Arkansas by 2 and Mississippi State by 1 in their last two games coming in.
Texas A&M is 9-2 ATS off a road game over the last two seasons. LSU is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite. The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. Take Texas A&M Tuesday.
|01-13-20||Cavs +14 v. Lakers||99-128||Loss||-109||12 h 16 m||Show|
15* Cavs/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +14
Cleveland head coach John Beilein recently held a team meeting to apologize for using the word thug when he meant to say slug in a film session. It’s obvious his players have his back with the way they have performed their last two games.
Indeed, the Cavaliers went on the road and beat the Pistons outright as 7.5-point dogs in the first game following the meeting. And then they went on the road Saturday and upset the Nuggets 111-103 as 12.5-point dogs. Now they are catching 14 points to the Lakers, which is simply too much.
The Lakers have six players on their injury report right now. Both Anthony Davis and Danny Green are questionable tonight, while Lebron James and Avery Bradley are probable. I just can’t see the Lakers being too motivated to face the Cavaliers tonight and that’s going to make it tough to cover this massive 14-point spread. Especially since it’s a letdown spot off back-to-back road wins at Dallas and Oklahoma City.
The Lakers are 10-31 ATS in their last 41 home games after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games. Plays on road underdogs (Cleveland) off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 54-21 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Cavaliers Monday.
|01-13-20||Hornets +9.5 v. Blazers||112-115||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +9.5
The Portland Trail Blazers have to win by double-digits to beat us tonight. That’s asking too much for a struggling Portland team that is 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
This number is adjusted too much for the Hornets playing a back-to-back here. They covered in a 92-100 loss at Phoenix last night. And this is a young Hornets team that doesn’t get affected as much as most teams would in these back-to-back situations.
The Hornets are 3-1 ATS in their last four road games with upset wins over both the Mavericks and Cavaliers. Charlotte is 24-12 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. The Hornets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. Take the Hornets Monday.
|01-13-20||Clemson v. LSU -5.5||Top||25-42||Win||100||79 h 59 m||Show|
20* Clemson/LSU National Championship No-Brainer on LSU -5.5
I’ve never seen a more impressive team than LSU in college football history. I’ve been riding them all season and I’m not about to back off now. I fully expect LSU to make easy work of Clemson here.
Joe Burrow won the Heisman and is as good as any quarterback in college football that I can remember. He threw seven touchdowns in the first half against Oklahoma. He is in charge of a record-breaking LSU offense that averages 48.9 points and 564.1 yards per game this season. And it has come against the 7th-toughest schedule in the country.
LSU doubters aren’t impressed with their defense, but the only games they gave up big points and yardage totals were games they were in control of and simply let up. But this LSU defense is playing tremendous down the stretch, giving up just 4.1 yards per play in their last four games overall. They beat Texas A&M 50-7, Georgia 37-10 and Oklahoma 63-28. The Sooners didn’t do anything offensively until garbage time in the 2nd half.
It just shows me that when LSU is locked in, they can shut down anyone defensively. And Clemson was extremely fortunate to beat Ohio State last week as the refs basically gave them that game. And while LSU has played the 7th-toughest schedule, Clemson has payed the 56th-toughest. A common opponent is Texas A&M. Clemson beat Texas A&M 24-10 at home, while LSU beat the Aggies 50-7 at home.
It’s safe to say that Clemson’s defense hasn’t faced an offense nearly as potent as LSU, and certainly not many good passing attacks this season with their easy schedule. So I’d say it’s a bad sign of things to come for Clemson considering they gave up 320 passing yards to Ohio State and 283 to Virginia in their last two games coming in.
Ed Orgeron is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of LSU. LSU is 7-0 ATS after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more yards this season. LSU is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years. LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record. LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games. LSU will go down as one of the best teams in college football history when they throttle Clemson in the National Championship Game. Bet LSU Monday.
|01-12-20||Arizona v. Oregon State +4.5||65-82||Win||100||12 h 53 m||Show|
15* Arizona/Oregon State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +4.5
Head coach Wayne Tinkle is doing a great job at Oregon State. He has the Beavers off to an 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS start this season. And I believe the Beavers have a great chance to upset Arizona at home today.
Oregon State has a great home-court advantage in going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in all home games this season. They are coming off an upset home loss to Arizona State, so they’ll be motivated to bounce back tonight. It was a letdown spot off their upset win as 7.5-point dogs at Colorado.
Arizona is also 11-4, but the Wildcats have feasted on a home-heavy schedule. They are 0-2 in their two true road games with losses at Baylor and Oregon. They also lost to Gonzaga at home and to St. John’s on a neutral.
Arizona is 0-7 ATS in road games off a loss over the last two seasons. Oregon State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss. The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss. Roll with Oregon State Sunday.
|01-12-20||Clippers v. Nuggets +1||104-114||Win||100||10 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Denver Nuggets +1
The Denver Nuggets are coming off a bad home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers as 12.5-point favorites. But you could see that letdown coming with the Clippers on deck today.
Now, the Nuggets will come back highly motivated for a win at home here tonight. And I’m not concerned about the back-to-back for them. They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, plus they had two days off before that Cleveland game.
The Clippers have struggled to put away some bad teams lately. They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They lost 114-140 at home to the Grizzlies as 10-point favorites, only beat the Knicks by 3 as 10-point home favorites and only beat the Warriors by 9 as 14.5-point home favorites. And the Clippers are likely to be without Paul George again tonight.
The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Denver as well. Take the Nuggets Sunday.
|01-12-20||Seahawks v. Packers -4||Top||23-28||Win||100||77 h 43 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -4
The Seahawks improved to 11-2 in one score games with their fortunate 17-9 win over the Eagles last week. They knocked out Carson Wentz in the first quarter and got the luxury of facing 40-year-old Josh McCown the rest of the way. And they still had to hang on for dear life.
The Seahawks’ luck runs out this week. They have played in two straight physical wars against the 49ers and Eagles and it will take its toll on them this week. Meanwhile, the Packers are rested and ready to go after earning a first-round bye.
Injuries are really taking their toll on the Seahawks now. They could be without three starting offensive linemen. They are likely to be without both tackle Duane Brown and guard Mike Iupati. And tackle George Fant suffered a groin injury that has him questionable. Both backup RB’s Lynch and Homer averaged just 1.0 yards per carry against the Eagles last week as the offense managed just 17 points.
Russell Wilson is going to be running for his life against one of the best tandem of pass rushers in the NFL in the Smith Brothers. And this is a Packers defense that has really improved down the stretch, giving up 20 points or fewer in five straight games and an average of just 14.2 points per game during this stretch. Rodgers finally has a defense to support him, which is a dangerous combination.
This is a very poor Seattle defense that ranked 26th in total defense in allowing 381.6 yards per game during the regular season and 29th in yards per play (6.0) allowed. The injuries are mounting on defense too with CB Flowers, DT Jefferson, LB Kendricks, DE Ansah and DE Clowney all on the injury report. Aaron Rodgers is going to have his way with this defense.
Speaking of Rodgers, this will be the eighth time he has faced Russell Wilson. The home team is 7-0 SU and winning by 8 points per game in the seven previous matchups between Rodgers and Wilson. And it’s going to be about 20 degrees on Sunday after it snows Friday and Saturday in Green Bay. Lambeau Field is arguably the best home-field advantage in the NFL and easily worth 4 points in my opinion. Factor in the rest advantage for Green Bay and all the injuries for the fraudulent Seahawks, and it’s easy to see why I like the Packers only laying 4 points.
The Packers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games off a close road win by 3 points or less. Green Bay is 11-2 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. The Packers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off five or more consecutive wins. The Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off an ATS loss. Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record. The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Seahawks. Roll with the Packers Sunday.
|01-11-20||Titans +10 v. Ravens||28-12||Win||100||31 h 60 m||Show|
15* Titans/Ravens AFC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +10
The Tennessee Titans have made me a lot of money in the second half of the season. A big reason why is because they are a completely different team since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. Their season-long stats lie, and oddsmakers are setting their numbers more based on their season-long stats than the team they are with Tannehill.
Tannehill completed 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio and a whopping 9 yards per completion in the regular season. Their threat of a downfield passing attack has opened things up greatly for Derrick Henry. The Titans have rushed for at least 149 yards in eight straight games while averaging a whopping 189.6 rushing yards per game during this eight-game stretch.
The Titans put up 33.4 points per game over their final seven games. Because they can run the ball, they were 1st in the NFL in red zone scoring efficiency this season. And while the Ravens have been decent against the run, they do give up 4.4 yards per carry. Plus the Ravens faced the 5th-easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks this season.
Stopping Baltimore’s top-ranked rushing attack is key to stopping them. The Titans are 12th in the NFL against the run in yards per game allowed, but they are an even better 7th in yards per carry (4.0) allowed. They have probably the 2nd-fasted front 7 of any team in the NFL behind the 49ers, who held the Ravens to 20 points earlier this season. Having speed in the front 7 is the key to being able to defend Lamar Jackson.
I like that the Titans are battle-tested. They needed to win in Week 17 to make the playoffs and handled their business in a 35-14 win at Tennessee. And last week they went on the road and beat New England 20-13 as 4.5-point dogs. They are in full-blown playoff mode and gaining confidence with each win.
The Ravens haven’t played a meaningful game since Week 16. And we saw them struggle in the playoffs last year against the Chargers. They’ve played a bunch of cupcakes down the stretch and the last good teams they played were the Bills and 49ers, and they only won those games by 7 and 3 points, respectively. Tennessee has enough film on Jackson and company now to be able to slow them down.
Since both teams like to run the ball so much, this game will be slowed to a snail’s pace. That favors the double-digit underdog here. I think the Titans will continue to have success with Henry on the ground and that will help shorten this game. The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite. Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last five playoff home games. Take the Titans Saturday.
|01-11-20||Southern Illinois +7.5 v. Bradley||48-67||Loss||-103||10 h 56 m||Show|
15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois +7.5
The Bradley Braves are without their best player in Elijah Childs (14.2 PPG, 9.1 RPG) for the foreseeable future. They are also without key role player Stephen Gabriel (4.0 PPG, 50% 3-pointers). They are fade material for the foreseeable future until they get Childs back.
Southern Illinois is playing too well to be catching 7.5 points from Bradley tonight. The Salukis are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They beat Illinois State by 12 and Valpo by 13 in their last two games coming in.
Southern Illinois is 60-28 ATS in its last 88 road games after having won four of its last five games coming in. Bradley is 0-6 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by 4-plus boards per game over the last three seasons. Bradley’s rebounding edge is definitely minimized with the loss of top rebounder Childs. Roll with Southern Illinois Saturday.
|01-11-20||Pelicans v. Celtics -9.5||Top||105-140||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics -9.5
It’s safe to say the Boston Celtics will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday. They are riding a season-high three-game losing streak coming in. They will take out their frustration on the New Orleans Pelicans tonight with a blowout victory.
This is a tough spot for the Pelicans. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after beating the Knicks on the road last night. This 6 in 9 days is as tough as it gets in the NBA. I think they run out of gas tonight, especially since they will be without two starters in Jrue Holiday and Derrick Favors.
Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - after failing to cover three of their last four ATS against an opponent that covered four of their last five ATS are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Celtics have won their last two meetings with the Pelicans by 13 at home and by 17 on the road. Bet the Celtics Saturday.
|01-11-20||Vikings v. 49ers -6.5||Top||10-27||Win||100||121 h 4 m||Show|
25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -6.5
The 49ers needed the bye week as much as anyone. They were among the first teams to have a bye week this year as theirs came clear back in Week 4. This was a tired, banged up team down the stretch and they showed a lot of heart in getting that all-important No. 1 seed.
It’s going to pay off this week as the 49ers are as healthy as they have been in months. They are expected to get back some key players on defense. LB Kwon Alexander, S Jaquiski Tartt and DE Dee Ford are all back now after missing Week 17. When Alexander, Ford and Nick Bosa have been on the field at the same time this season, opposing quarterbacks have a QBR of 3, which is unheard of.
Conversely, the spot couldn’t be worse for the Minnesota Vikings. They are coming off their huge upset win over the Saints in overtime on Sunday. Now they have to come back and play the early game Saturday on a short week. Not to mention, they have to travel from New Orleans back to Minnesota and then all the way out to the West Coast to Santa Clara.
Injuries are taking their toll on the Vikings, too. Both Stephon Diggs (Illness) and Adam Thielen (ankle) didn’t practice on Tuesday and Wednesday. With all this travel, the Vikings aren’t going to get much practice time at all as it is. And they could be without DT Linval Joseph (knee) who got banged up against the Saints. They are without their top corner in Mackensie Alexander and starting safety Jayron Kearse (toe) is questionable. And after a huge workload returning from injury last week, RB Dalvin Cook won’t be 100% on this short week.
The 49ers weren’t as good defensively down the stretch due to those injuries, but they should get back to being the top defense in the league now. They ranked 2nd in total defense during the regular season giving up just 281.8 yards per game. The 49ers were dominant offensively down the stretch as Jimmy G had a 109.3 QBR since they traded for Emmanuel Sanders. They finished 4th in total offense averaging 381.1 yards per game. They were the only team in the NFL to finish Top 5 in offense and defense this season and I strongly believe they are the best team left in the playoffs now that they are a lot healthier.
Getting margin hasn’t been a problem for the 49ers as they are outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per game on the season and 12.8 points per game at home. The Vikings are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. It’s just too much to ask for the Vikings to go on the road two weeks in a row and beat the two best teams in the NFC in the Saints and 49ers. They will fall flat here against a superior 49ers team in the much better spot. Bet the 49ers Saturday.
|01-11-20||Marquette v. Seton Hall -5.5||Top||55-69||Win||100||6 h 57 m||Show|
20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -5.5
The Seton Hall Pirates are one of the best teams in the country and still undervalued. They are 11-4 on the season with five straight wins and covers including home wins over Maryland and Georgetown as well as road wins over Xavier and DePaul.
The Pirates have held all 15 opponents this season below their season average, which is a big reason they rank 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency. In 6 of their 11 wins have had held their opponents to 10 or more points below their season averages.
Marquette is 1-2 in true road games with their lone win at Kansas State. They were blasted by 16 at Wisconsin and by 17 at Creighton and Seton Hall is better than both of those teams. The Golden Eagles were just upset at home by Providence as well.
The Pirates are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the last two seasons. The Pirates are 7-1 ATS at home this season. The Golden Eagles are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs. Bet Seton Hall Saturday.
|01-11-20||Wisconsin v. Penn State -3||58-49||Loss||-110||4 h 12 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -3
The Penn State Nittany Lions are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They are off to a 12-3 start with all three of their losses coming on the road.
The Nittany Lions are undervalued after their upset loss at Rutgers, which is also one of the most improved teams in the land. But now Penn State is back home where it is 9-0 this season and winning by 20.6 points per game.
Wisconsin was also upset by Illinois last time out, but that was at home. The Badgers are 2-5 in all games played away from home with neutral court losses to the likes of St. Mary’s, Richmond and New Mexico, as well as true game road losses to NC State by 15 and Rutgers by 7.
The Badgers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games off a loss. The Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games off a loss. Penn State is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 home games. Roll with Penn State Saturday.
|01-11-20||Illinois State v. Indiana State -6.5||52-65||Win||100||4 h 56 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana State -6.5
The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season. They had won eight straight prior to two tough road losses to Drake by 4 and Northern Iowa by 8, which are also among the best teams in the MVC.
Now the Sycamores are back home where they were last seen beating Southern Illinois by 12. Indiana State is 5-0 at home this season. Now they take on a down Illinois State team that returned just one starter this year and is off to a 6-9 start.
Illinois State is 0-7 in all games played away from home this season. They lost by 12 at Southern Illinois, the same team that Indiana State beat by 12. The home team is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings. Indiana State won by 23 and by 30 in its last two home meetings with Illinois State.
The Redbirds are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take Indiana State Saturday.
|01-10-20||Lakers v. Mavs -2||Top||129-114||Loss||-109||11 h 33 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Mavs ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas -2
The Dallas Mavericks just lost to the Lakers 95-108 on the road on December 29th. They have now lost two of three meetings to the Lakers, including an overtime loss where the Lakers tied it at the buzzer at the end of regulation. The Mavericks want revenge and to tie the season series at 2-2 tonight.
The good news for the Mavericks is that they won’t have to go up against Anthony Davis tonight due to a tailbone injury suffered against the Knicks last time out. The Lakers are only a shell of themselves without Davis, who leads them in scoring (27.1 PPG), rebounding (9.4 RPG) and blocks (2.6 BPG).
The Mavericks are a perfect 9-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season, coming back to win by 11.2 points per game. Dallas is 8-0 ATS off a home loss this season. The Lakers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Mavericks Friday.
|01-10-20||Butler v. Providence +2||70-58||Loss||-115||10 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +2
The Providence Friars have turned the corner and are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They blasted Texas by 22 and Georgetown by 16 at home, while also pulling road upset wins over DePaul and Marquette.
Now the Friars are playing with a ton of confidence and will welcome the opportunity to face a Top 10 team in Butler in what should be a great home atmosphere for them. It’s what I believe to be a fraudulent 14-1 Butler team that is nowhere near as good as their record.
Providence is 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 meetings with Butler, including 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings. Butler has played three true road games this season losing to Baylor and winning narrowly at St. John’s by 2 and by 9 over Ole Miss. This is their toughest test since that loss to Baylor.
Butler is 5-16 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. Providence is 7-1 SU at home this season. The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with Providence Friday.
|01-10-20||Pelicans -4 v. Knicks||123-111||Win||100||8 h 3 m||Show|
15* Pelicans/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans -4
The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season. They are 6-2 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses coming on the road to the Lakers by 10 as 10-point dogs and at home to the Jazz by 2 as 4-point dogs. They have road wins over the Blazers, Nuggets and Kings during this stretch as well as home wins over the Pacers, Rockets and Bulls.
The New York Knicks are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They are coming off a 24-point loss at Utah that followed up a 30-point loss at the Lakers. This is a tired team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days now after playing in altitude.
It’s a very difficult spot for the Knicks. They are coming off a four-game road trip, and I like to fade teams returning home from a long road trip. Making matters worse is that the Knicks will be without their best player in Julius Randle (18.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG) and could be without leading scorer Marcus Morris (19.1 PPG) again as well.
New York is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last two seasons. It is losing by 15.2 points per game in this spot. The Pelicans are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Take the Pelicans Friday.
|01-09-20||BYU v. St. Mary's -3||84-87||Push||0||12 h 33 m||Show|
15* BYU/St. Mary’s ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Mary’s -3
The St. Mary’s Gaels are coming off a bad upset road loss to Pacific 99-107 as 8.5-point favorites on January 4th. I think that loss is providing us with some value to pull the trigger on the Gaels as only 3-point home favorites over BYU tonight.
The Gaels are still one of the best teams in all of college basketball. They are 13-3 on the season and 7-1 at home. They have wins over Wisconsin, Utah State, Arizona State and Nevada this season.
BYU is 12-4 and getting too much respect for a six-game winning streak coming into this game. They have played three true road games this year, losing at Utah and at Boise State while winning at Houston by 1 point. St. Mary’s is better than all three of those teams.
St. Mary’s is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine home meetings with BYU. They beat the Cougars by 22 points at home last year. BYU is 51-107-4 ATS in its last 162 games as an underdog and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a road dog. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The favorite is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Gaels are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Roll with St. Mary’s Thursday.
|01-09-20||Rockets v. Thunder +4||Top||92-113||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +4
The Houston Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 122-115 win in Atlanta last night. Six players logged at least 30 minutes for the Rockets last night, so this is a very tough situation for them.
Chris Paul wants revenge on his former team after the Rockets traded him away in the offseason to make room for Russell Westbrook. And you know the Thunder will rally around him. They nearly upset the Rockets in a 112-116 road loss as 10-point dogs in their first meeting. And now they get the Rockets at home this time around.
Plus, the Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have gone 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall which includes upset wins over Dallas, Toronto, San Antonio, the Clippers and the Nets.
The Thunder are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Oklahoma City is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games overall. The Thunder are 47-22-3 ATS in their last 72 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of more than 60%. Oklahoma City is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games playing on one days’ rest. The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog. Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the Thunder Thursday.
|01-09-20||Arizona v. Oregon -3.5||Top||73-74||Loss||-105||9 h 24 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon -3.5
The Oregon Ducks are one of the best teams in the country. They have gone 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS this season and I think they aren’t getting the respect they deserve as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Arizona Wildcats tonight.
Oregon has played the 33rd-toughest schedule in the country while ranking 7th in offensive efficiency and 66th in defensive efficiency. They have wins ov er Memphis, Houston, Seton Hall, Michigan and Utah. Their three losses have come to Gonzaga, UNC and Colorado.
Arizona has taken advantage of a much easier schedule. They have played just one true road game all season, which resulted in a loss to Baylor. They also lost to St. John’s and Gonzaga on a neutral. They lack impressive wins as their best wins have come against Illinois and Arizona State and both were at home.
Oregon is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Arizona. The Wildcats are 1-11 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Arizona is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. The Ducks are 22-4 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Oregon is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 home games. Bet Oregon Thursday.
|01-08-20||Tulane +11.5 v. Connecticut||61-67||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Tulane +11.5
Ron Hunter has won everywhere he has gone. He had very successful stints at IUPUI and Georgia State and now he has already turned around this Tulane program in his first season on the job thanks to recruiting some great transfers.
The Green Wave are 9-5 SU & 9-5 ATS this season and continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the country. They showed that here recently giving Memphis a run on the road as 15-point dogs and upsetting Cincinnati at home as 8-point dogs in their first two AAC games.
Now the Green Wave are catching a whopping 11.5 points from Connecticut tonight, which is simply too much. UConn has opened 0-2 in AAC play losing by 16 at Cincinnati and by 15 at South Florida. They may come back and win their first conference game tonight, but asking them to cover 11.5 points is asking too much.
Tulane is 12-2 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games over the last two seasons. The Green Wave are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Tulane is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games overall. The Huskies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Roll with Tulane Wednesday.
|01-08-20||Kansas v. Iowa State +5.5||79-53||Loss||-115||8 h 40 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +5.5
This is the ultimate ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Iowa State Cyclones. They lost to Florida A&M as a 25-point favorite two games back. But they didn’t have their best player in Tyrese Haliburton.
Haliburton returned for their Big 12 opener against TCU and promptly posted a triple-double with 22 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists. He means everything to this team. But they lost 79-81 (OT) at TCU as 4-point dogs only after a banked 3 at the buzzer by the Horned Frogs.
Now the Cyclones return home highly motivated for a win. And no team has played Kansas tougher than Iowa State in Big 12 play in recent years. The Cyclones are 7-6 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Kansas. Hilton Coliseum is one of the toughest places to play in the country and Kansas has had a hard time getting any kind of margin on the road in this series.
Iowa State is much better than its 7-6 record as the Cyclones are 348th out of 353 teams in KenPom’s luck factor, which indicates how lucky a team is to have the record that they have. They are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now as a result.
Iowa State is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 home games off a close loss by 3 points or less. Kansas is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games. Steve Prohm is 15-6 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Iowa State. Take Iowa State Wednesday.
|01-08-20||Florida State v. Wake Forest +7||Top||78-68||Loss||-110||7 h 11 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +7
Danny Manning has these Wake Forest Demon Deacons playing some great basketball right now. They have won three straight which includes an upset home win over Xavier as 6-point dogs and an upset road win over Pitt as 6.5-point dogs.
Florida State is also playing great right now with six consecutive wins. But this is obviously a letdown spot for the Seminoles after pulling the upset at Louisville as 6-point dogs last time out. I think they fall flat here against Wake Forest and will have a hard time winning this game, let alone covering the 7-point spread.
Wake has covered its last two home games against Florida State, both as underdogs. The Demon Deacons have only played five of their 13 games at home this season. They are 4-1 at home with their only loss to NC State. They have played the 43rd-toughest schedule in the country so they are battle-tested.
Florida State is 29-58 ATS in its last 87 games after having won eight or more of its last 10 games coming in. The Demon Deacons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a. Winning record. Wake Forest is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet Wake Forest Wednesday.
|01-08-20||Raptors v. Hornets +3||112-110||Win||100||7 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3
The Toronto Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight. They just went to the wire with the Blazers at home last night in a 99-101 loss. And now they have to try and get back up off the mat to face the Hornets tonight.
It has been a struggle here of late for the Raptors due to all their injuries. They are missing four key players in Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol, Fred VanVleet and Norman Powell. Siakam and VanVleet are their two best players. It’s no wonder their have gone just 3-5 SU in their last eight games overall. And being short-handed makes these back-to-back situations even more difficult.
The Hornets have pulled two impressive road upsets over the Mavericks and Cavaliers in two of their last three games coming in. They did lose to the Pacers at home after letting that game get away from them in the 4th quarter. But that will have them coming back determined tonight to beat the Raptors.
The home team has won four of the last five meetings. The Hornets are 11-2 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|01-08-20||Heat v. Pacers -1||Top||122-108||Loss||-106||7 h 46 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1
This is yet another case of the Indiana Pacers being underrated as only 1-point home favorites over the Miami Heat tonight. The Pacers are 15-4 at home this season and should be a bigger favorite tonight.
The Heat also have a great home-court advantage as they are 17-1 at home, but they are not home here. Miami is just 9-9 on the road this season. Their last two road games were very ugly as they lost at Washington by 18 as 14-point favorites and lost by 20 at Orlando.
Indiana wants revenge from a 112-113 road loss at Miami as 5-point dogs on December 27th in the first and only meeting thus far. The Pacers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 home meetings with the Heat. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings overall with Miami.
The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites. Indiana is 34-18 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last three seasons. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.
|01-07-20||Knicks +13.5 v. Lakers||87-117||Loss||-115||11 h 14 m||Show|
15* Knicks/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on New York +13.5
The New York Knicks are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 6-6 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They have only lost twice by more than 8 points in those 12 games, so they have been extremely competitive.
The Knicks just took the Clippers to the wire at Staples Center on Sunday in a 132-135 loss as 10-point dogs. Now they are catching 13.5 points to the Lakers with no travel and I expect them to take LeBron and company to the wire in this game tonight.
The Lakers are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. In fact, the Lakers haven’t beaten anyone by more than 13 points in their last 12 games overall, making for a 12-0 system backing the Knicks pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.
The Knicks are 8-0 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season. The Lakers are 1-10 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents over the last two seasons. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (New York) - a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 47-15 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Knicks Tuesday.
|01-07-20||TCU v. Kansas State -1||Top||59-57||Loss||-112||10 h 39 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State -1
The Kansas State Wildcats return home highly motivated for a win tonight. They have lost three of their last four coming in all by 6 points or fewer. Two were on neutral courts to solid Mississippi State and Saint Louis teams as well as a 5-point loss at Oklahoma as 7-point dogs.
Now the Wildcats are back home where they are 6-1 this season and winning by 14.2 points per game. They host a TCU team that has played a ridiculously easy schedule. In fact, it will be the first true road game for TCU this season. They’ve only played two games away from home which were both on neutrals with a loss to Clemson and a win against Wyoming.
Kansas State is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with TCU. The Hornets Frogs are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 Big 12 games, while the Wildcats are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 Big 12 games. TCU is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games off a win. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Kansas State Tuesday.
|01-07-20||Loyola-Chicago v. Drake -1||Top||62-65||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Drake -1
The Drake Bulldogs are one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference this year. They are off to an 11-4 start including a perfect 8-0 record at home where they are winning by 17.5 points per game. They should be a bigger home favorite against Loyola-Chicago here.
Loyola-Chicago is 2-1 in true road games with a blowout loss to Furman by 24 and a narrow win over Valparaiso by 3 as 3-point favorites. They also won at Ball State. This will be Loyola-Chicago’s toughest road test of the season thus far.
Drake is 30-12-2 ATS in its last 44 games overall. The Bulldogs are 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 home games. The Ramblers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Loyola-Chicago is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet Drake Tuesday.
|01-07-20||Baylor v. Texas Tech -3||57-52||Loss||-108||10 h 38 m||Show|
15* Baylor/Texas Tech ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -3
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have looked the part of a national championship contender once again this season when healthy. They have won five straight coming in, which includes their 70-57 win as 7.5-point dogs of then-No. 1 Louisville on a neutral and their 85-50 trouncing of Oklahoma State in their Big 12 opener.
Baylor is ranked 4th in the country, but it's a fraudulent ranking. They have feasted on an easy schedule with all of their tough games at home or on a neutral. They have played two true road games, losing to Washington and only beating Coastal Carolina by 12. This is by far their toughest test of the season Tuesday night.
Texas Tech is 8-0 at home this season and winning by 21.4 points per game. The Red Raiders are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite. The home team has won six straight in this series and is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take Texas Tech Tuesday.
|01-07-20||Villanova v. Creighton -1.5||64-59||Loss||-109||10 h 38 m||Show|
15* Villanova/Creighton Big East ANNIHILATOR on Creighton -1.5
This is the best Creighton team that Greg McDermott has had in recent memory. The Bluejays are off to a 12-3 start this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in all of college basketball.
Indeed, the Bluejays have won 15 straight home games dating back to last season and are 11-0 at home this season while winning by 17.6 points per game. They beat Marquette by 17 in their last home games, the same Marquette team that Villanova just lost to by 11 on the road.
Villanova is a very young team that is starting two freshmen for the first time since 2002. The Wildcats are just 4-3 SU & 1-6 ATS in their seven games played away from home this year. They are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games with a 25-point loss at Ohio, a failure to cover at St. Joe’s and that 11-point loss at Marquette.
Villanova is 0-6 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season. Creighton is 11-1 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road underdog over the last three years. They are winning by 20.5 points per game in this spot. The Wildcats are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Take Creighton Tuesday.
|01-06-20||Bucks v. Spurs +7.5||104-126||Win||100||8 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5
I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight. This is a home-and-home situation with the Milwaukee Bucks. After losing 118-127 in Milwaukee on Saturday, the Spurs now only have to wait two days for revenge and are catching 7.5 points at home in the rematch. I expect them to take the Bucks to the wire and possibly pull off the upset.
The Spurs have been a great team to back following a loss, which shows the resiliency of this team and the coaching of Popovich. The Spurs are now 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. San Antonio is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games as a home underdog as well.
San Antonio is 35-14 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. The Spurs are 25-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more over the last two years. San Antonio is 30-7 ATS revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. It is coming back to win by 7.8 points per game in this spot. Roll with the Spurs Monday.
|01-06-20||Jazz -3 v. Pelicans||128-126||Loss||-109||8 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3
The Utah Jazz are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. They are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming by 3 points at Miami. They have covered seven straight coming in and I believe they make it seven in a row tonight.
The Pelicans are also playing well in going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. But they could be without their best player tonight in Jrue Holiday, who is questionable with an elbow injury. And it’s a bad spot for them playing their 3rd game in 4 days after a back-to-back at the Lakers and Kings on Friday and Saturday.
The Jazz own the Pelicans, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. More impressively, the Jazz are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six trips to New Orleans winning by 10, 21, 17, 24, 33 and 12 points. They have won those six games by an average of 19.5 points per game.
The Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Pelicans are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games playing on one days’ rest. New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games. The Jazz are 15-5-3 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in New Orleans. Take the Jazz Monday.
|01-06-20||Miami-OH +14 v. UL-Lafayette||Top||17-27||Win||100||69 h 36 m||Show|
20* Miami Ohio/LA-Lafayette Lending Tree Bowl No-Brainer on Miami Ohio +14
The Miami Ohio Redhawks just won the MAC Championship by upsetting Central Michigan in the title game as underdogs. And now head coach Chuck Martin gets to play the disrespect card again with this team in the Lending Tree Bowl as 14-point underdogs to Louisiana-Lafayette.
Miami Ohio played the tougher schedule than Louisiana and certainly isn’t 14 points worse in my book. They aren’t a flashy team with an average offense that doesn’t blow you away. But they do two things that are more important, which is play defense and get great plays from special teams. They have a Top 5 special teams unit in the country. And their defense has been solid in giving up 380.5 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play this season.
Lafayette is the flashy team with the explosive offense that puts up 38.8 points per game. But I question their motivation in this game. They just lost to Appalachian State by 7 points for a second straight year in the Sun Belt Championship Game. That was their Super Bowl, while this will be just another game for them. They know they are heavy favorites and expected to win, so I question their motivation because of it.
It’s only the 2nd bowl game in 9 seasons for the Redhawks, so they are obviously excited to be here. They nearly upset Mississippi State in 2016 as 14-point underdogs in a 16-17 defeat in their last bowl game.
Chuck Martin is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as the coach of Miami Ohio. The Redhawks are 11-1 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two seasons. Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games and 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games as an underdog. Bet Miami Ohio Monday.
|01-05-20||Purdue v. Illinois -1||Top||37-63||Win||100||19 h 35 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois -1
The Illinois Fighting Illini are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. It’s Year 3 of this rebuilding project for head coach Brad Underwood and the payoffs are starting to show with this veteran group that returned four starters this year.
The Fighting Illini are off to a 9-5 start against a very tough schedule. They have gone 8-1 at home this season while outscoring opponents by 22.5 points per game, and I think it will be a raucous atmosphere at Illinois tonight. They beat Michigan 71-62 in their lone home game against a Big Ten opponent this season.
Purdue lost a lot from the team that made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament last year. The Boilermakers are also 9-5, but they have some really bad losses. They lost by 14 to Nebraska, by 9 to Butler, by 10 to Marquette and at home to Texas. They also lost to Florida State on a neutral.
Purdue usually has a rebounding edge against everyone they play, but they won’t against Illinois. The Fighting Illini are averaging 12 more boards than their opponents this season as one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. And after shooting just 29.3% in a loss at Michigan State last time out, the Fighting Illini can’t possibly shoot as poorly at home this time around.
Purdue is 4-15 ATS in road games off a conference win over the last three seasons. The Boilermakers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Sunday games. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Fighting Illini are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games. Illinois is 5-1 ATS in its last six games off an ATS loss. Bet Illinois Sunday.
|01-05-20||Blazers v. Heat -5.5||111-122||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat -5.5
The Miami Heat are coming off a bad 20-point loss at Orlando. But it was the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Raptors the previous night. It was a clearly letdown spot and a bad spot given the rest advantage for Orlando.
Now the Heat return home highly motivated for a win. And the Heat have had one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA this season. They are 16-1 SU & 11-5-1 ATS at home while outscoring opponents by 11.6 points per game. They should have no problem covering this short 5.5-point spread against the Blazers.
The Blazers have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season. They are 15-21 overall and 7-12 on the road and were desperate enough to sign Carmelo Anthony off the streets. It hasn’t gotten any better with Anthony as the Blazers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their only win coming against a G-League team in Washington. All five losses came by 6 points or more, including losses to the Knicks, Suns and Pelicans.
The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. Miami is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 home games. The heat are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss. Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a loss by more than 10 points. Take the Heat Sunday.
|01-05-20||Seahawks v. Eagles +2.5||Top||17-9||Loss||-110||42 h 2 m||Show|
25* Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles +2.5
I’ve been fading the Seahawks with a lot of success here down the stretch. I spotted that they were frauds a long time ago, and that is still my belief. I’m going to fade them on the road here against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card round as well for many of the same reasons.
The Seahawks are 10-2 in one-score games this season, which is unsustainable. Russell Wilson doesn’t have the ‘clutch gene’ like everyone thinks. He was 31-33 in one-score games coming into this season in his career. The Seahawks have a +7 point differential for the entire season, which is closer to an 8-8 team than one that is 11-5. They are complete frauds.
The real Seahawks have shown over the last four weeks. They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They lost by 16 to the Rams as 1-point road dogs, only beat the hapless Panthers 30-24 as 6.5-point road favorites, were upset by the Cardinals 13-27 as 9.5-point home favorites and lost to the 49ers 21-26 at home as 3.5-point dogs. That loss to the 49ers was devastating as it meant they’d have to go on the road in the wild card instead of hosting a game. And they came up just inches short. It’s tough to bounce back from a loss like that.
The Eagles found themselves needing to win their final four games just to make the playoffs. That’s exactly what they did despite all their injuries. They went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS with their final two games being the most impressive. They beat the Cowboys 17-9 at home and gained 431 yards while allowing just 311 yards, outgaining them by 120 yards. And last week they handled their business in a 34-17 win at the Giants with 400 total yards.
Despite all the injuries, this offense is flowing behind some great play from Carson Wentz with four straight games of 400-plus yards of offense. They are far from broken, and they are finding different ways to move the football and score points behind the genius of head coach Doug Pederson. And they will get Miles Sanders back this week, and could get both Zach Ertz and Lane Johnson back.
A big reason the Seahawks have struggled down the stretch is injuries, too. They have injuries all over their defense at all three levels. And their offense lost their top two running backs, which prompted them to sign Marshawn Lynch off the street. They certainly miss Josh Gordon as well since he was suspended.
It’s also easy to see the Seahawks are a fraudulent team when you look at their numbers. They are just 26th in total defense, giving up 381.6 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season. They are actually getting outgained by 7.2 yards per play on the season. And their running game has taken a big hit here down the stretch with all these injuries to their running backs and along the offensive line.
The Seahawks won’t be able to run on the Eagles, either. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 90.1 yards per game rushing. And the Eagles deserved to win their first meeting with the Seahawks, losing 9-17 at home despite committing five turnovers. I have a hard time believing they are going to come anywhere close to committing five turnovers again, and thus the result will be in their favor this time around.
The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog. Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in its last six January games. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games. Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually.