15* Alabama/Indiana Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7

If Alabama had the stats Indiana has and vice versa, Alabama would be a double-digit favorite over Indiana.  But because of their names on their jerseys and the failure for most to believe what Indiana is doing, we are getting the Hoosiers at a discount as only 7-point favorites over the Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl.

Indiana proved itself worthy going on the road and beating Oregon by 10 and upsetting Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship on a neutral.  The Hoosiers have elite numbers, averaging 7.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.5 yards per play.

Alabama has weak numbers averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.  And the Crimson Tide have gotten worse as the season has gone on when you dive into the numbers.

In their last five games, the Crimson Tide lost outright at home to Oklahoma before a cruising win over Eastern Illinois.  They were fortunate to beat Auburn, getting outgained 411 to 280 by the Tigers, or by 131 total yards.  They then lost 28-7 to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.  And although they beat Oklahoma 34-24 on the road in the rematch, it was the most misleading final of the first round.  They were outgained 362 to 260 by the Sooners, or by 102 yards.  They benefited from a pick-6 and two missed FG's by Oklahoma.

The most shocking stat about Alabama that gives them no chance here is rushing for 80 or fewer yards in five of their last seven games.  They were held to -3 rushing yards by Georgia and 28 rushing yards on 25 carries by Oklahoma in their last two games.  They cannot run the football, and being one-dimensional doesn't work against Indiana.  WR Ryan Williams has been a non-factor for Alabama, too.  

It's supposed to rain throughout the Rose Bowl, and not being able to run the ball will be a huge disadvantage for the Crimson Tide.  Indiana has tremendous balance ranking 11th in rushing at 221.2 yards per game and 46th in passing at 251.6 yards per game.  You can run on this Alabama defense, which ranks 27th at 120.6 rushing yards per game allowed.  You cannot run on this Indiana defense, which ranks 3rd allowing 77.6 rushing yards per game and just held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards in the Big Ten Championship Game.  They also held Oregon to 81 rushing yards on 30 carries, which were the two best rushing attacks they faced all season.  Bet Indiana Thursday.

20* Oregon/Texas Tech Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Texas Tech +2.5

Texas Tech has been disrespected all season.  The Red Raiders are 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS this season as one of the most underrated teams in college football.  They continue to lack the respect they deserve as underdogs to Oregon in the Cotton Bowl.

The Red Raiders made the most out of their massive NIL fund and have some of the best talent in the country, which is why this is no fluke.  In particular, their defense is a juggernaut.  The Red Raiders rank 3rd in scoring defense at 10.9 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 254.4 yards per game and 3rd at 4.0 yards per play.

What I really like about this matchup against Oregon is the Red Raiders rank 1st in rushing yards per game allowed at 68.5 and 1st at 2.3 yards per rush allowed.  The Ducks need to be able to run the football to be successful, and the Red Raiders are going to shut down their running game and make Dante Moore try and beat them through the air.  They did the same thing in consecutive blowout wins against BYU, shutting down their running game and Bear Bachmeir couldn't beat them through the air.

I also think the ceiling for this Texas Tech offense is even higher than what we've seen all season simply because QB Behren Morton wasn't healthy, playing with a hairline fracture in his fibula.  He was in a walking boot most the season and only got in one practice each week in every game he started.  And in the only game they lost, Will Hammond was the QB against Arizona State, and the Sun Devils needed a lot of good fortune to beat them late in that game.

The 26-day layoff since the Big 12 Championship Game has done wonders for Morton.  He is out of his walking boot for the first time since suffering the injury.  "This whole bowl prep has been really good for me," Morton said. "I've been basically a hundred percent in practice as far as team reps. I haven't been able to do team reps really all season long. ... Just getting the body back to playing football again -- it's been a while since I've gotten to do that."

"Staying in a boot the whole entire week, not getting to practice, then taking the boot off on Saturday and getting to play, it was not fun at all," said Morton, who said coach Joey McGuire granted him one day of practice prior to the Big 12 title game against BYU.

The Ducks lost both coordinators to coaching jobs which is a distraction in bowl prep.  Dan Lanning has yet to win a big game and time and time again comes up short in key moments of close games.  He is a great recruiter and motivator, but he hasn't proven himself as a great game manager yet.

Against the four best defenses Oregon faced this season in Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and Wisconsin, the Ducks were held to an average of 20 points per game, 300 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.  Their offense can be stopped, and their defense certainly isn't as good as Texas Tech.  That was evident when they allowed 509 total yards to James Madison in their 51-34 home win in the first round of the college football playoff.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

20* Miami/Ohio State Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Miami +9.5

Ohio State is getting too much respect for winning the national title last season.  It's very hard to go back-to-back, and we saw chinks in their armor in a loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us here is asking too much as this is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate.

Miami has been an absolute wagon down the stretch with five straight wins with four of those coming by 17 points or more.  The defense has been elite holding opponents to 8.8 points per game in those five games.  That includes their 10-3 road win at Texas A&M in the first round of the 12-team playoff.  The Hurricanes outgained the Aggies 5.7 to 4.3 yards per play in the win.

Ohio State benefited from a very easy schedule.  In their two biggest step up games against Texas and Indiana, they were outgained 376 to 203 by the Longhorns, or by 173 total yards.  They were also outgained 342 to 324 by the Hoosers, or by 18 yards.  They were held to 58 rushing yards on 26 carries by Indiana.

Miami may have the best defensive line in the country and can shut down that Ohio State rushing attack as well.  The Hurricanes rank 7th allowing 87 rushing yards per game and 9th at 2.9 yards per carry.  They are 6th in the country averaging 3.2 sacks per game, and they will get after the overrated Julian Sayin, who did not perform well in those Texas and Indiana games.

The Hurricanes rode Mark Fletcher to 172 rushing yards in a windy day in College Station against Texas A&M.  They will get him going again, and the conditions will be much more favorable for QB Carson Beck indoors to have a better game here.  I trust his experience and trust him to make the right plays against this vaunted Ohio State defense to keep the Hurricanes in this game for four quarters.

The total has been set around 40 for this game so it is expected to be a defensive battle.  Getting 9.5 points in a game with such a low total is a tremendous value.  I think this game is much closer than the odds suggest, and it would take a couple catastrophic mistakes from Miami to get blown out here.  Player for player, the Hurricanes are one of the few teams in the country that has the talent to match the Buckeyes.  Bet Miami Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans PK

The Chicago Bulls just lost their two most important players to injury in a 136-101 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last time out.  Josh Giddey (19.2 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 9.0 APG) and Coby White (19.2 PPG, 4.7 APG) both left the game with injuries.  Giddey is going to miss at least two weeks, while White is out for at least this game.

The Bulls just aren't going to be able to produce much offensive without their two most important offensive players.  They certainly won't be able to hang with the Pelicans, who have quietly put together an elite offense in recent weeks and are very healthy right now.

I love the spot for the Pelicans, too.  They are coming off four consecutive losses against three of the best teams in the NBA in the Cavs, Suns (twice) and Knicks.  This is a big step down in class for them, and they went 5-0 SU in their previous five games prior to this skid, including a 114-104 win in Chicago.  

That win over the Bulls improved New Orleans to 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Chicago.  The Pelicans are motivated to get back on track, while the Bulls are down in the dumps right now realizing their season is in jeopardy without their two best players.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UMKC/Denver OVER 157.5

Denver is a perfect 12-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last nine lined games.  This total of 157.5 is too short for a game involving the Pioneers right now.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 98th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 360th in adjusted defense.  They are the 6th-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

UMKC lights to push the pace ranking 91st in adjusted tempo which will help us cash this OVER ticket.  The Roos have gone for 177, 156, 170 and 169 combined points in their last four games coming into this one.  This has shootout written all over it today folks.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Hawks OVER 242.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 16-7 OVER in their last 23 games overall finishing with 245 or more combined points in 14 of their last 22 games.  This total of 242.5 is too short for a game involving the Hawks right now.

The Hawks just went for 269 combined points with the Thunder last time out despite playing without Trae Young, Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis, who are all dead nuts OVER players for them.  Now Johnson and Porzingis return to the lineup today, and Young is questionable.

The Timberwolves are rolling offensively scoring 136 points against the Bulls and 138 against the Nuggets in two of their last three games.  They will have no problem getting in a shootout with the Hawks today.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Michigan/Texas Citrus Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +7.5

This is more of a fade of Texas than it is a play on Michigan.  The Longhorns made the 12-team playoff semifinals each of the last two seasons.  They felt slighted that they didn't get in this season, and I just don't think they care at all about the Citrus Bowl.

That's evident by the alarming amount of opt-outs and transfers the Longhorns have leading into this bowl game.  They will be without seven of their top 11 defenders in terms of snap count.  They will be without S Michael Taaffe (70 tackles, 2 INT), LB Liona Lefau (68 tackles), CB Malik Muhammad (30 tackles, 2 INT), CB Jaylon Guilbeau (40 tackles, 1 INT), LB Anthony Hill (70 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INT), EDGE Trey Moore (34 tackles, 3 sacks) and EDGE Ethan Burke (40 tackles, 3 sacks) and S Derek Williams Jr. (23 tackles).  That also means they will be without eight of their top 13 tacklers.

Offensively, the Longhorns will be without their top three RB's, OL Connor Stroh and WR DeAndre Moore (38 receptions, 532 yards, 4 TD).  Texas fired defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski as well.  The Longhorns are a mess heading into this bowl game, and they shouldn't be favored by more than a TD against a Michigan team that will have almost all hands on deck.

Interim head coach Biff Poggi has done a great job of keeping this team together amidst the Sherrone Moore scandal.  Head head coach Kyle Whittingham was able to convince most of these players to stay, including 5-star QB Byrce Underwood, who will play in the Citrus Bowl.  In fact, the Wolverines are only expected to be without 3 starters in EDGE Derrick Moore, LB Jaishawn Barham and LG Giovanni El-Hadi as all three prepare for the NFL Draft.  Everyone made the trip to Orlando except the three opt-outs and expect a very full roster.

Poggi went 2-0 as head coach taking over for a suspended Moore this season.  The players love him and will play hard for him, and motivation is everything in bowl games.  "I was kind of stunned for a while," Wolverines linebacker Cole Sullivan said. "I didn't know what to think. But at the end of the day, we're still the same team. One person doesn't define who we are. I'm not going to let what happened define me. And I know the rest of the team isn't also going to let that happen."

The Big Ten is 6-1 SU against the SEC over the last two seasons in bowl games.  I think the Big Ten takes more pride in these head-to-head matchups because everyone around the country claims the SEC is better.  They take it personal, and Michigan will take pride in trying to knock off Texas in the Citrus Bowl as well.  Bet Michigan Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Hornets OVER 232.5

Steph Curry is back healthy for the Warriors and La'Melo Ball is back healthy for the Hornets.  Both are dead nuts OVER players as both their offenses run much faster and much more efficiently with them in the lineup.  This total of 232.5 is too short today.

The Warriors are 2-0-1 OVER in their last three games overall.  They went for 242 combined points with the Mavericks and 244 with the Raptors at the end of regulation.  The Hornets and their opponents have gone for at least 235 combined points in three of their last four games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Iowa/Vanderbilt NYE Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are like a service academy.  They are always going to show up in bowl games with basically all hands on deck and minimal opt outs.  That's the kind of program they run at Iowa, and that's the kind of team you want to back in bowl season.  They have zero opt outs this season with all hands on deck.

“They love playing together, and they couldn't imagine being out there without the guy next to him, and it's such a unbelievable bond," offensive coordinator Tim Lester said of his Hawkeyes team.

"It's what football's supposed to be like. And I don't even think it crossed anyone's mind. We’re all going out there, we're going to go out there and play together. That's the program that coach (Ferentz) runs. And it's awesome to be a part of.”

Iowa may be the best 8-4 team in the country.  The Hawkeyes' four losses this season all came by 5 points or fewer and to Top 20 teams at the time they played them.  They were actually tied or leading in the 4th quarter of all four of those losses, too.  That includes a 5-point loss to Indiana and a 2-point loss to Oregon, two playoff teams with a legit shot to win the national title.

I question Vanderbilt's motivation for this bowl game after the Commodores thought they'd have a shot at winning a national title, too.  Instead, they were left out of the 12-team playoff despite a 10-2 record in what is perceived as the best conference in football in the SEC.  If Alabama or Georgia were 10-2 with the same schedule, they would have gotten in.  But because they are lowly Vanderbilt, they did not get in.

I know the Commodores have very few opt outs, but the one they do have is a big one.  TE Eli Stowers (61 receptions, 765 yards, 4 TD) won the Mackey Award as the nation's best tight end.  He is by far Diego Pavia's favorite target.  Speaking of Pavia, he finished 2nd in Heisman voting and complained about voters afterwards.  I think his own team is getting tired of his act.  The Hawkeyes have extra motivation to get after him and shut him up as well.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Iowa Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara/Portland OVER 155.5

Santa Clara is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall going for 158 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The only team they didn't go for at least 158 with was North Texas, which is a dead nuts under team ranking 335th in tempo, 268th in offense and 45th in defense.

What makes Santa Clara an OVER team is ranking 104th in tempo, 59th in offense and 67th in 3-point rate.  They are also a very good passing team ranking 28th in assist rate.

Portland ranks 69th in adjusted tempo and will push the pace at home.  The Pilots are also a good passing team ranking 22nd in assist rate.  This game will features some great offense and poor defense and this total of 155.5 is too short as a result.  

Portland is 6-3 OVER in its last nine games.  The Pilots and their opponents have combined for at least 163 points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  This total of 155.5 is too short for a game involving the Pilots, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Jazz OVER 240

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They are especially an OVER team at home where they dictate pace and force opponents to run with them.

The Jazz are 14-4 OVER in all home games this season averaging 256.2 combined points per game with their opponents.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for at least 241 points in eight consecutive games overall.  This total of 240 is too short for a game involving Utah.

The Boston Celtics are one of the most 3-point-happy teams in the NBA attempting 42.8 attempts per game.  The Jazz rank up there as well at 39.6 attempts per game.  That's going to create long rebounds and easy fast break opportunities for both teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* USC/TCU Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on TCU +6.5

The only reason this line is as high as it is is because TCU starting QB Josh Hoover has entered the transfer portal and will not play.  But the Horned Frogs look to have everyone else prepared to play in this game and finish the season strong.  And I don't think the loss of Hoover hurts TCU more than all the opt-outs for USC.  And I have no doubt TCU wants to be playing in this bowl game more than USC does, and motivation is everything in bowl season.

The Horned Frogs will be in good hands with 5th-year Senior QB Ken Seals.  He started 22 games in the SEC at Vanderbilt.  He has thrown for 4,413 yards and 29 TD in his career, and he played on some very bad Vanderbilt teams.  He has way more weapons around him at TCU to be successful, especially with leading WR Eric McCalister (64 receptions, 1,121 yards, 10 TD) and TE DJ Rogers (32 receptions, 300 yards, 2 TD) both electing to play in this bowl game.

Three key defenders in S Jamel Johnson (89 tackles, 4 INT), S Bud Clark (54 tackles, 4 INT) and LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr (Leading tackler, 119 tackles, 4 sacks) were all potential opt-outs who are all going to play in this game bowl.  I think the amount of participation they are getting from all of their top plays says everything you need to know about how much this Alamo Bowl in their home state of Texas means to this team.

"It feeds into next year. We want to leave this place better than how we found it," Johnson told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "It was us coming together one more time. It's just a blessing and something we wanted to do."

"We have a tremendous culture, and again, I think it revealed itself at the end of the year, in the fact that our guys played so hard down the stretch and it meant something to them," Dykes said of a team that finished the regular season with wins over then-No. 23 Houston and Cincinnati.

"Ken started 22 games in the SEC," Dykes said. "He's been a great teammate, a great practice player. Now he's going to get a chance to go perform on the big stage. He's excited about it, our team believes in him, and we've moving on quickly."

USC has a laundry list of opt-outs and will be a shell of itself for this bowl game.  The Trojans will be without their top three receivers in Makai Lemon (79 receptions, 1,156 yards, 11 TD), Ja'Kobi Lane (49 receptions, 745 yards, 4 TD) and TE Lake McRee (30 receptions, 450 yards, 4 TD).  Starting LT Elijah Paige and C Killian O'Connor, their two best linemen, won't play due to injury.  QB Jayden Maiava will play, but he has almost no chance to be successful behind this offensive line and without those weapons.

The Trojans lost defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn to Penn State, and he was the main reason they had an improved defense this season.  The Trojans will be without a handful of key defenders in LB Eric Gentry (76 taclkes, 3 sacks), S Bishop Fitzgerald (51 tackles, 5 INT), S Kamari Ramsey (27 tackles), EDGE Anthony Lucas (37 tackles, 3 sacks), DT Keeshawn Silver (17 tackles) and DE Jahkeem Stewart (18 tackles, 1.5 sacks).  What a mess.  Bet TCU Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Louisville/Cal OVER 159.5

Louisville is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 45th in adjusted tempo, 12th in average length of offensive possession, 7th in adjusted offense and 1st in 3-point rate.  The Cardinals are scoring 91.6 points per game, averaging 17.1 points per game more than their opponents typically allow on average this season.

Ryan Conwell (19.2 PPG) is an elite scorer, and now the Cardinals get Mikel Brown Jr. (16.6 PPG) back from injury after a 2-game absence.  They will have all hands on deck tonight, and they will hang a big number on California to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

California has played a lot of teams that play slower this season which has kept their combined scores lower than they should be.  But the Golden Bears faced a team that profiles similarly to Louisville earlier this season in Kansas State, and that game saw 195 combined points.  The Cardinals are by far the best offensive team they have faced all season.  They will be forced to play faster trying to keep up.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Tennessee/Illinois Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Illinois +3.5

After making the 12-team playoff last season, I question how motivated the Tennessee Volunteers will be to be playing in the Music City Bowl this season.  And given all their opt outs coming into this game, it's easy to see they will be a shell of their regular season selves for this game.

Tennessee will be without leading WR Chris Brazzell II (62 receptions, 1,017 yards, 9 TD) as he prepares for the NFL Draft.  They will also be without leading tackler LB Arion Carter (76 tackles), DE Joshua Josephs (33 tackles, 4 sacks) and CB Colton Hood (50 tackles, 1 INT).  They were already without their top two corners due to injury all season.

No question Illinois is excited to be here.  That is evident by their lack of opt outs as the only key guy they will be missing is LB Gabe Jacas.  QB Luke Altmyer (68.1% completions, 21-to-5 TD/INT ratio) and two of his favorite targets in WR Hank Beatty (Leading receiver, 64 receptions, 826 yards, 3 TD) and TE Tanner Arkin have decided to play in this game.

Altmyer recalls attending the 2011 Music City Bowl to root on his hometown team, Mississippi State. "These bowl games are very, very core memories for families, for myself, for the guys obviously," Altmyer said. "It's something I don't take for granted. It's going to stick with me forever, so I'm going to give it my best to make it a good one."

Altmyer and company should light up this short-handed Tennessee defense.  The Vols were last seen allowing 582 total yards in a 45-24 home loss to Vanderbilt in the regular season finale.  They didn't show up for that game, and I don't expect them to show up for this game, either.  Illinois will be the team playing with more intensity and that's everything in bowl season.  Bet Illinois Tuesday.

20* Rams/Falcons ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 49.5

The Los Angeles Rams just put up 581 total yards in a 38-37 loss at Seattle last week in their first game without star WR Devante Adams.  If that's not the case for Matthew Stafford to win MVP I don't know what is.  This is the best offense in the NFL and it will be on display again tonight in perfect conditions in the dome in Atlanta.  

This total of 49.5 is too short for a game involving the Rams, who have a suspect defense.  The Rams are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 59 points with Carolina, 62 with Arizona, 75 with Detroit and 75 with Seattle.

The Rams will get their points, and I think the Falcons can keep up in a shootout.  They put up 29 points and 476 total yards on the Bucs two weeks ago and 26 points on the Cardinals last week.  Kirk Cousins and Kyle Pitts are developing a great chemistry, and WR Drake London just returned from injury last week and should have a big game this week.

I also like the fact that both teams are great at running the football with two-headed monsters at RB, which makes things easier when they get into the red zone to put up touchdowns instead of field goals.  The Falcons have rushed for at least 111 yards in seven consecutive games, and the Rams have rushed for at least 119 yards in seven of their last eight games.

Both defenses have struggled against the run with the Falcons ranking 26th allowing 128.2 rushing yards per game and 25th at 4.6 yards per carry allowed.  The Rams allow 4.1 yards per carry and just gave up 171 rushing yards on 25 carries to the Seahawks last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Cavs/Spurs NBC No-Brainer on OVER 243

De'Aron Fox participated in shootaround today which is a good sign he'll return to the lineup.  The Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team with him in the lineup due to what he brings offensively with his ability to push the pace and get easy shots for teammates.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall and that is largely due to getting healthy as well.  They went for 250 combined points with New York, 259 with New Orleans, 271 with Charlotte and 261 with Chicago.

This is a rematch from December 5th earlier this month when the Cavs won 130-117 over the Spurs for 247 combined points.  This game only saw 48 points in the 4th quarter so it could have easily been even more high-scoring.  The Cavs shot 31% from 3 and the Spurs 35%, so it's not like either team shot lights out.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Heat OVER 245

We have two dead nuts OVER teams squaring off tonight with the Denver Nuggets visiting the Miami Heat.  The Heat are an OVER team because they rank 1st in pace, while the Nuggets are an OVER team because they rank 1st in offensive rating and 20th in defensive rating.

The Nuggets are 13-3 OVER in their last 16 games overall.  In their last two road games, they went for 261 combined points at Dallas and 253 combined points at Orlando.  It will be more of the same tonight against the Miami Heat.

The Heat are as healthy as they have been in a long time and coming off 142 points against the Pacers and 126 against the Hawks.  They have both Larsson and Jovic back in the lineup and these are two playmakers offensively that they have been missing.  They combined for 35 points against the Pacers and 31 against the Hawks.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +6

The Brooklyn Nets have quietly gone 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall with upset wins at Minnesota by 16 as 12-point dogs, at Philadelphia by 8 as 9-point dogs, vs. Toronto by 15 as 3.5-point dogs, vs. Milwaukee by 45 as 1.5-point dogs, at Chicago by 10 as 8-point dogs and vs. Charlotte by 13 as 4.5-point dogs.  They also beat New Orleans by 18 as 3.5-point home favorites.  They are grossly undervalued right now.

This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors.  They are coming off a 141-127 (OT) loss at Toronto last night and will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Even though both Curry and Butler are expected to play tonight, I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Nets, who had yesterday off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.

Curry played 41 minutes last night and Butler played 37 minutes.  The Warriors have been awful on the road all season going 6-12 SU & 7-11 ATS.  They should not be laying 6 points to the Nets, who will likely win this game outright as well.  Bet the Nets Monday.

15* CBB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Cornell/Michigan State OVER 156.5

Cornell is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-3 OVER in all games this season including 6-2 OVER in all games played away from home.  The Big Red and their opponents have combined for at least 158 points in 10 of their 11 games this season.  This total of 156.5 is too short for a game involving Cornell.

What makes the Big Red such an OVER team is they rank 18th in adjusted tempo and 8th in average length of offensive possession.  They are snipers on offense ranking 69th in adjusted offense and terrible on defense ranking 332nd in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective FG percentage on offense and 4th in 3-point percentage.

Michigan State is going to hang a big number on Cornell to pave the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  The Spartans have scored at least 79 points against all teams not named Arkansas, UNC, Iowa, Duke and Penn State.  They will easily top 80 points in this game, and Cornell will do their best to keep up in a shootout and keep pushing the pace for 40 minutes.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bears/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51

The San Francisco 49ers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 16.4 points per game.  This run has coincided with getting Brock Purdy back healthy, and he leads the NFL in QBR (75.8).

Purdy has this San Francisco offense humming with an average of 34.4 points per game during this five-game winning streak.  He just threw 5 TD passes in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis.  He should stay hot against a Chicago defense that ranks 19th in scoring at 23.6 points per game, 25th in total defense at 348.1 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.

The 49ers are going to hang a big number on the Bears, and Caleb Williams and company will be forced to keep up in a shootout.  I think the Bears are capable with the offensive-minded Ben Johnson calling the shots.  Chicago ranks 5th in total offense at 371.5 yards per game with tremendous balance.  The Bears get back Luther Burden from injury and will have their full compliment of weapons this week outside Rome Odunze.  They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

The 49ers have a mediocre defense without Warner and Bosa.  They have managed to patch it together, but against the elite offenses of the NFL they have given up a lot of points.  They just gave up 27 points to Philip Rivers and the Colts last week after allowing 24 points to the lowly Titans the previous week.  

The 49ers are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 58 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  This is actually a very low total for this game that features two of the top offenses in the NFL up against two of the weaker defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Wizards OVER 240

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 8th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and their offense thrives with Alex Sarr (18.2 PPG) in the lineup.

The Wizards are coming off a 138-117 home win over the Raptors for 255 combined points.  They just recently played the Grizzlies and beat them 130-122 for 252 combined points on December 20th.  Neither team shot the lights out either as the Wizards shot 47.5% and the Grizzlies 45%.

The Grizzlies now have JA Morant back in the lineup who they didn't have in that first meeting with the Wizards.  Morant is a dead nuts OVER player providing a lot on the offensive end including extra pace, but nothing on defense.  The Grizzlies have scored at least 119 points in six of their last eight games including 125 and 137 in their last two.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 252 combined points in each of the last two meetings.  This total of 240 is too short tonight for two teams that rank inside the Top 10 in pace.  Bet he OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -6.5

The Boston Celtics are a better team than most people realize this season.  They are 19-11 SU & 17-13 ATS while ranking 4th in the NBA in net rating (+7), trailing only the Thunder, Rockets and Nuggets in that department.  So they have consistently been the best team in the East even ahead of the Knicks.

The Celtics are 14-4 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall and have stayed remarkably healthy with nobody on the injury report currently.  They have been at their best on the road during this stretch going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  They won by 18 at Indiana and by 16 at Toronto in their last two road games.

The Portland Trail Blazers are a mess right now due to to all their injuries.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall which have all come at home.  They lost by 8 to Detroit, by 4 to Orlando and by 16 to the short-handed Clippers.

Avidja and Sharpe are solid players, but the Blazers are really missing a point guard without Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson.  They are also without Jerami Grant and Robert Williams.  Avidja and Sharpe are being asked to do too much of the ball-handling and their offense is a mess.  They have scored 106 or fewer points in four consecutive games now.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Las Vegas Raiders ML +102

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser with the Raiders +7.5 or better paired with the Bengals -1 and/or the Titans +7.5 or better.

The loser of this game will likely get the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.  I trust Pete Carroll to coach this game harder than interim Mike Kafka, because it's not in Carroll's nature to lose games on purpose.  It's like like it's a killer QB draft class, either.

The Giants have looked like they've been tanking for weeks.  They are 0-9 SU in their last nine games overall and just had 141 total yards in their loss to the Vikings last week.  They don't want to get Jaxson Dart hurt again and haven't been using the entire playbook as a result.

Of course, it's difficult for Dart to have any success being this banged up New York offensive line that will be without three starters this week as the Giants just put LT Andrew Thomas, C John Michael Schmitz and RG Evan Neal on IR.  They also just ruled out one of their best weapons in Theo Johnson, a sign that they are tanking.

The Raiders have at least been competitive here down the stretch.  That was evident last week in a 23-21 road loss to the Texans as 14-point dogs in a game they should have won.  They outgained the Texans 315 to 270, or by 45 total yards.

The Raiders have by far the better defense in this game.  Las Vegas ranks 15th in total defense at 326.1 yards per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play.  New York ranks 29th in total defense at 373 yards per game and 29th at 6.1 yards per play.

Rookie RB Ashton Jeanty had 188 yards from scrimmage and 2 TD last week against that vaunted Houston defense that is the best in the NFL.  He should feast on this Giants defense whose biggest weakness is against the run.  They rank 31st allowing 150.9 rushing yards per game and dead last (32nd) allowing 5.5 yards per carry.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Raiders on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Giants/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 41.5

The loser of this game has the inside track to the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.  Both teams have decided to sit some guys that makes it seem like they may be doing everything they can to lose this game.  And the best way to lose a game is to not score points, which is why I really like the UNDER in this game Sunday.

The Giants managed just 141 total yards against the Vikings last week in a game it looked like they were tanking as Jaxson Dart attempted only 13 passes despite trailing all game.  They are doing everything they can to keep Dart healthy, which has really limited the playbook.

Of course, it's difficult for Dart to have any success being this banged up New York offensive line that will be without three starters this week as the Giants just put LT Andrew Thomas, C John Michael Schmitz and RG Evan Neal on IR.  They also just ruled out one of their best weapons in Theo Johnson, a sign that they are tanking.

The Raiders have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and aren't brining back LT Miller, G Powers-Johnson or G Meredith from IR when at least two of them could have returned, especially Miller.  They also just decided to shut down their best weapon in TE Brock Bowers, placing him on IR earlier this week, a sign they are tanking and doing everything to not score.

Las Vegas ranks 15th in total defense at 326.1 yards per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play.  The strength of the Raiders is their defensive line, and they will wreak havoc on this banged up New York offensive line.  The same can be said for the Giants, who have elite pass rushers to get after Geno Smith.

The Raiders and their opponents have combined for 41 or fewer points in eight of their 15 games this season.  They rank dead last (32nd) in total offense at 248.9 yards per game.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team, and given the tanking nature of both teams with all the players they are missing on offense, I just can't see a shootout.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Fullerton/SMU OVER 173.5

SMU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 118th in adjusted tempo, 24th in average length of offensive possession, 33rd in adjusted offense and just 78th in adjusted defense.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall including a 99-82 home win over Central Arkansas last time out for 181 combined points.  They have scored at least 87 points in nine of their 12 games this season.

What makes CS-Fullerton a dead nuts OVER team is playing at a break-neck pace, ranking 4th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession.  The Titans are also better offensively than they are defensively, ranking 240th in adjusted defense.

Fullerton is 6-2 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The Titans and their opponents have combined for at least 182 points in six of their last nine games overall.  So this total of 173.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Fullerton.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Colorado +15.5

The Colorado Buffaloes won't have their normal home-court advantage today with students home for Christmas Break.  They also won't have it due to playing another team from Colorado here in Northern Colorado, which will be the more motivated team to prove their chops against a Power 4 opponent.

Colorado has been grossly overvalued going 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games.  The Buffaloes only beat Cal Baptist by 8 as 12.5-point favorites, lost at Colorado State by 5, only beat Portland State by 11 as 16-point home favorites and lost on a neutral to Stanford by 9 as 3-point favorites.

We saw Cal Baptist and Portland State take Colorado to the wire on the road, and Northern Colorado is better than both of those teams.  The Bears are 9-3 this season with their 3 losses coming by 1, 7 and 11 points.  That 11-point loss was impressive because it came on the road at Texas Tech as 25-point dogs in their last road games.  If they can hang with Texas Tech, they can certainly hang with Colorado.  Bet Northern Colorado Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Bucs -4.5

The Tampa Bay Bucs are in must-win mode if they want a chance to win the NFC South and make the playoffs.  This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Bucs after going 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  We'll gladly take advantage and lay the short number here with the Bucs on the road against the hapless Miami Dolphins.

A big reason for the Bucs' struggles has been injuries during this stretch, but they are now as healthy as they have been basically all season going into Week 17.  This is the first time that Baker Mayfield has had his full compliment of weapons at RB, WR and TE.  Only LT Tristan Wirfs is out on offense.

Mayfield and company should hang a big number on this Miami defense that just allowed 45 points to the Bengals last week the game after getting eliminated from the playoffs.  They let go of the rope, and they have no reason to try and grab back onto it.  They will be without three of their best defenders in FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, DT Benito Jones and his backup in DT Jordan Phillips.  The Dolphins are very thin on the defensive line and in the secondary.

The Bucs are fully healthy on defense for the first time in a long time.  The only key player they are missing is CB Zyon McCollum, who has been on IR for weeks.  This version of this defense held the Panthers in check last week to just 23 points and 275 total yards.  They will be good enough to keep rookie QB Quinn Ewers and this Miami offense that lacks weapons in check.  The Dolphins have scored 21 points or fewer in four of their last five games coming in.  

The Bucs have lost three straight games outright to division opponents by 1, 3 and 4 points.  Eight teams have been listed as a favorite since 2009 after losing three straight games against division opponents, and those eight teams went 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS, covering the spread by an average of 15.8 points per game.  The Bucs need it more and they'll go out and get it to keep their playoff hopes alive heading into Week 18.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Dolphins OVER 46.5

This is the first time that Baker Mayfield has had his full compliment of weapons at RB, WR and TE.  Only LT Tristan Wirfs is out on offense.  This version of the Bucs offense is one of the best in the NFL and the one that was lighting up teams early on in the season.  They should get their swagger back this week.

Mayfield and company should hang a big number on this Miami defense that just allowed 45 points to the Bengals last week the game after getting eliminated from the playoffs.  They let go of the rope, and they have no reason to try and grab back onto it.  They will be without three of their best defenders in FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, DT Benito Jones and his backup in DT Jordan Phillips.  The Dolphins are very thin on the defensive line and in the secondary.

Rookie Quinn Ewers actually played well outside of his 2 INT against in the 45-21 home loss to the Bengals that saw 66 combined points last week.  The Dolphins had 389 total yards in that game, including 260 passing from Ewers completing 20-of-30 attempts.  This Tampa Bay defense can be had as it ranks 27th in the NFL allowing 6.0 yards per play this season.

The forecast looks great for another shootout in Miami with temps approaching 80, no wind and no rain.  I expect the Bucs to get in the 30's and the Dolphins to get in the 20's in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cardinals/Bengals OVER 52

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games, five of which have seen 51 or more combined points, with four of those going for 60 or more combined points.  It took a missed XP and two missed FG for us to not cash OVER 45.5 last week as the Falcons and Cardinals combined for 45 points.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last seven games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another four questionable.  Their entire projected starting secondary is either out or questionable.

This Arizona offense is forced to play fast to try and keep up in shootouts, and Jacoby Brissett has been doing a good job of it getting the ball to two of the most underrated weapons in the NFL in TE Trey McBride and WR Michael Wilson.  The Cardinals have scored at least 22 points in seven of their last 10 games.  Now WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and WR Xavier Weaver returned from injuries last week to give Brissett more weapons outside.

The Cincinnati Bengals are also a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense.  We have seen that offense light up opponents in recent weeks.  The Bengals are coming off a 45-21 win at Miami.  They also got in a 39-34 shootout with Buffalo three weeks ago.  Joe Burrow and this entire offense is fully healthy, so the Bengals are going to put up a big number on this Arizona defense.

It's also say to say this awful Cincinnati defense is going to give up plenty of points to Arizona, too.  The Bengals rank 32nd in scoring defense at 30.5 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 402.8 yards per game and 32nd at 6.6 yards per play.  The Bengals will be without DE Joseph Ossai, and DT B.J. Hill is questionable.  Brissett should have all day to find receivers against this weak Cincinnati pass rush.

It will be great weather in Cincinnati Sunday with temps in the 60's, and the winds won't be too strong plus there is very little chance of precipitation.  This game just screams shootout with the way these two teams are built right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Bengals -7

Note: I love the Bengals -1 in a 6-point teaser.  My favorite pairings with them are the Raiders +7.5 or better and Titans +7.5 or better.

The Arizona Cardinals are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall losing five times by 7 points or more and four times by 19 points or more.  They are getting blown out on the regular, and they are better off at this point losing games to try and get the best draft pick possible.  Given all the guys they are sitting due to injury here down the stretch, it appears they are doing just that.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last seven games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another four questionable.  Their entire projected starting secondary is either out or questionable.

That's bad news for them going up against a Cincinnati offense that is one of the top units in the NFL in their current form.  The Bengals are fully healthy on offense basically for the first time all season.  We saw what that led to last week in a 45-21 road win at Miami.  Joe Burrow threw 4 TD passes in the win and looks like his old self again.  Burrow also led the Bengals to 34 points against the Bills three weeks ago and 32 points against the Ravens four weeks ago.  This offense is explosive, and now they face perhaps the worst defense they will have faced all season in the Cardinals, who rank 29th in scoring defense at 27.6 points per game.

The Cardinals are also in trouble on offense due to an offensive line that is basically missing four starters now.  C Froholdt is questionable or it will be five.  That gives Jacoby Brissett little chance of being able to completely keep up with the Bengals in a shootout, because the Bengals are going to hang a big number on them no matter what.  The Cardinals have averaged a modest 20.1 points per game during their current 7-game losing streak.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Saints/Titans OVER 39.5

This game features two of the most exciting rookie QB's in the league in Cam Ward of the Titans and Tyler Shough of the Saints.  I think both rookies will be looking to show out here, especially Shough who is the 2nd choice in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds currently.

Shough has led the Saints to three consecutive victories putting up 24 points on Tampa Bay, 20 on Carolina and 29 on the Jets.  He just threw 49 times for 308 yards last week, a clear sign that QB Kellen Moore is trying to get him the numbers he needs to win Rookie of the Year.  It's also due to injuries to their top two RB's, so the Saints just have to go more pass-happy with a lack of a running game.  A pass-happy game plan will lead to more clock stoppages and more points.

The Titans are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games.  They won a 31-29 thriller in Cleveland for 60 combined points.  They lost a 37-24 shootout to the 49ers for 61 combined points.  And last week they hung 26 points and 376 total yards on the Chiefs.  The running game is clicking, and the Titans are fully healthy on offense right now here down the stretch and it shows.

I like backing OVERS in games between eliminated teams late in the season when I know both offenses are trying.  And that's the case with both of these teams.  I think the offenses are ahead of the defenses at this point in the season too, and this total of 39.5 is too short today as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Colts OVER 47.5

The Jaguars are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They have gone for 51 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  The only two games they didn't came against two dead nuts under teams in the Chargers and Titans.

Head coach Liam Coen, QB Trevor Lawrence, and new WR Jakobi Myers are all in sync right now and hitting on all cylinders.  In fact, the Jaguars have scored 25 or more points in eight consecutive games while averaging 33.0 points per game in those eight games.

No question the Jaguars are going to stay hot and hang a big number on an Indianapolis defense that just allowed 48 points and 5 passing TD's to Brock Purdy on Monday Night Football.  They also allowed 36 points to the Jaguars three games ago.

I was impressed with Philip Rivers on Monday Night leading the Colts to 27 points in that 48-27 loss to the 49ers that saw 75 combined points.  Rivers threw for 277 yards and 2 TD with one INT in the loss.  The Jaguars did allow 445 total yards to Bo Nix and the Broncos last week, so I think the Colts will have plenty of offensive success to contribute to this total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Spurs OVER 242.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The Jazz are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 247 or more combined points in all seven games.  This total of 242.5 is pretty short for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Spurs will have no problem running with them.  The Spurs and their opponents have combined for at least 237 points in nine of their last 14 games overall.  The Spurs and Jazz have combined for 243 and 244 points in their last two meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +11

The Brooklyn Nets have quietly gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with upset wins at Philadelphia by 8 as 9-point dogs, vs. Toronto by 15 as 3.5-point dogs, vs. Milwaukee by 45 as 1.5-point dogs, at Chicago by 10 as 8-point dogs and vs. Charlotte by 13 as 4.5-point dogs.  They also beat New Orleans by 18 as 3.5-point home favorites.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a gutting 142-138 (OT) loss to the Denver Nuggets on Christmas Day.  I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and with the way the Timberwolves are playing right now they have no business being double-digit favorites over the Nets.

The Timberwolves have been grossly overvalued all season going 12-19 ATS in all games.  They tend to play to the level of their competition, which is why they have just two wins in their last 17 games by more than 11 points, and those came by 13 and 14 points.  They just aren't blowing anyone out, and they won't be blowing out the Nets tonight, either.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Bulls OVER 235

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and showing how potent they can be offensively when that's the case.

The Bulls are 5-0 in the last four games scoring 127 and 136 against Cleveland and 152 and 126 against Atlanta.  They went for 249, 302 and 261 combined points in their last three games prior to last night's 109-102 win over the 76ers where neither team shot it well.

I expect this game against the Bucks to be much more high-scoring, especially with Giannis Antetokounmpo (28.9 PPG) making his much-anticipated return from a calf injury.  They are fully healthy everywhere else and a potent offensive team when that's the case.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Ravens/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Baltimore +5

This will be a battle of backup QB's with the Ravens going with a healthy Tyler Huntley and the Packers going with a banged up Malik Morris who was limited in practice all week with a shoulder injury.  Jordan Love has been ruled out for this one with a concussion.

I actually think the Ravens have the better QB in Huntley and the better overall roster right now from a healthy standpoint.  They should not be catching this many points on the road as the only thing the Packers have going for them is home-field advantage.

The Ravens also have the motivational advantage.  They are eliminated from playoff contention if they lose this game, so they will be 'all in' for this one.  The Packers were just gifted a spot in the playoffs thanks to an upset loss by the Detroit Lions to the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday.  Now the Packers have a very slim chance to even improve their seeding as they'd need the Bears to lose their final two games while the Packers win their final two games to win the division.  That's pretty unlikely and they know it.

The Ravens are 6-3 SU in their last nine games overall with two losses coming by 5 points or fewer.  This run dates back to Huntley's last start, a 30-16 home win over the Chicago Bears.  Huntley went 17-of-22 passing for 186 yards and a TD while also rushing for 53 yards in the win.  I don't even think he's that big of a downgrade from the current version of Lamar Jackson, who has been playing through injury for weeks.  The Ravens are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL even with the Jackson injury factored in.  They have everyone healthy on offense with the exception of Jackson and all their best players healthy on defense with all 11 starters.

The Packers are coming off consecutive losses to the Broncos 34-26 on the road and the Bears 22-16 on the road.  They needed to go to OT against the Bears last week, so that will make them even more tired coming into this one.  And the injuries are much worse than just Jordan Love.  They are missing arguably their two most important defenders in DT Devonte Wyatt and LB Micah Parsons.  SS Evan Williams is questionable.  

You can run up the middle against the soft part of this Green Bay defense, so expect Derrick Henry to have a big game.  The Ravens have rushed for an average of 192.3 yards per game in their last three games and rank 3rd in the NFL in rushing.  Offensively, C Sean Rhyan, RT Zach Tom and WR Christian Watson are all questionable.  They are already without C Elgton Jenkins to IR.  Baltimore has proven it has one of the best defenses in the NFL since a return to health nine games ago off their bye week.  They have allowed just 17.1 points per game in their last 10 games.  Bet the Ravens Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Pelicans OVER 237

The Pelicans are 10-5 OVER in their last 15 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 237 points at the end of regulation in 10 of those 15 games.  The Pelicans rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 11-3 OVER in their last 14 home games going for 241 or more combined points in eight of their last 12 home games.  This total of 237 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home, especially with their offense taking off even more since getting Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole back healthy in recent games.

The Suns are coming off a pair of OVERS combining for 235 points at Golden State and 240 points at home against the Lakers.  The Suns are playing a pressing style for four quarters that could give the Pelicans troubles with turnovers and quick buckets for the Suns in transition.  That style will also up the tempo in this game overall, which the Pelicans have no problem with.

This is a rematch from a 115-108 win by the Suns last night in New Orleans for just 223 combined points.  The pace was there for the OVER, but the shooting was abysmal.  Phoenix shot 8-of-40 (20%) from 3, while New Orleans shot 5-of-25 (20%) from 3 and missed 17 free throws.  I have to think both teams will shoot much better in the rematch tonight and this thing will sail OVER 237 combined points as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* North Texas/San Diego State New Mexico Bowl No-Brainer on North Texas -6

North Texas should have almost all hands on deck for this bowl game.  That makes the Mean Green a potent team, one that came up just short of making the 12-team playoff.  Eric Morris wanted to coach the bowl game, but the rest of the staff remains intact for it so there still should be good chemistry heading into this game.

"These guys are locked in," North Texas interim coach Drew Svoboda said. "Initially, obviously, coming off a loss in the American Conference championship game, there was a lot of disappointment in that locker room. When we brought everybody back and had a chance to get all these guys together and talk about the goal and what's still in front of this football team, we realized they're excited to play."

The Mean Green are motivated to end a 7-game bowl losing streak with their last bowl win coming in 2013.  QB Drew Mestemaker led the nation with 4,129 yards and 31 TD, and RB Caleb Hawkins is a monster with 1,226 rushing yards and 23 TD, plus 345 receiving yards and another 3 scores.  They lead a Mean Green offense that ranks 1st in the country in scoring at 44.8 points per game and 1st in total offense at 504.3 yards per game.

Given all the guys San Diego State will be missing on offense, I give the Aztecs no chance of keeping up with the Mean Green.  QB Jayden Denegal had surgery at the end of the season and is out.  That leaves Central Michigan transfer Bert Emanuel Jr. at QB, and he has only attempts 9 passes all season.  Leading receiver Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) is out, as is fellow WR Jacob Bostick.

The Aztecs to have a great defense, but they are likely going to be without CB Chris Johnson (48 tackles, 9 PD), LB Owen Chambliss (105 tackles, 4 sacks) and EDGE Trey White (43 tackles, 7 sacks).  Those are their three best defenders.  They are also without the architect of that defense in coordinator Rob Aurich, who left for the same job at Nebraska.  Rumors are Chambliss and White will both follow him to Nebraska, and Johnson is likely to sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft.

San Diego State ranks 106th in total offense at 341.8 yards per game this season.  This offense has been really poor down the stretch once injuries hit them.  The Aztecs have averaged just 16.3 points per game in their last four games and haven't topped 25 points in any of their last six games.  I just don't think they'll be able to keep up with the Mean Green, who are going to score.  Bet North Texas Saturday.

20* UConn/Army Fenway Bowl No-Brainer on Army -6.5

For starters, Service Academies like Army are 18-3 SU & 18-3 ATS in their last 21 bowl games.  These service academies never have any players opt out and they always show up with their best effort in these bowl games.  That will be no different for Army in the Fenway Bowl today.

UConn lost head coach Jim Mora to Colorado State.  Gone with him are so many key players.  They will be down four starting offensive linemen and QB Joe Fagnano, who was one of the best QB's in the country.  He completed 68.9% of his passes for 3,441 yards with a 28-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season.  The Huskies will be down to a 4th stringer at QB.

Army will run wild in the triple-option against this terrible UConn defense, which allows 185.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry this season.  The Huskies rank 114th against the run.  Army has a very good defense that ranks 45th in scoring at 22.1 points per game and 50th in total defense at 349.9 yards per game.  They are finally fully healthy on defense with the return of CB Justin Weaver and their top two interior defensive linemen.

I also like the fact that Army sits at 6-6 on the season.  There's a big difference between 7-6 and 6-7 as teams always want to finish with a winning record over a losing record.  It's not like they need the extra motivation, but they will easily be the more motivated team today, which is everything in bowl season.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Jazz OVER 243.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They are really an OVER team at home where they dictate pace, which is what they'll do tonight against the Detroit Pistons, forcing them to get into a run-and-gun game with them.

The Jazz are 13-4 OVER in their 17 home games this season averaging 255.9 combined points per game at home.  Their last four home games have been ridiculously high-scoring combining for 265 points with the Grizzlies, 255 with the Magic, 278 with the Lakers and 273 with the Mavs.  This total of 243.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Utah at home.

The Pistons are coming off a 136-127 road win at Sacramento for 263 combined points.  The Pistons won't mind getting in a shootout with the Jazz tonight as they are the better team, so more possessions is good for them.  Both teams are also very healthy coming into this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* FIU/UTSA First Responder Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 59.5

Both teams are decimated by opt outs and injuries on defense.  Both teams have almost all hands on deck on offense.  This First Responder Bowl figures to be a shootout due to all the players that won't be playing on defense.  The forecast also favors a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.

FIU wil be without their entire secondary basically.  CB Brian Blades (26 tackles, 5 PD, 1 INT), CB Mister Clark (59 tackles, 13 PD, 3 INT), CB Victor Evans (42 tackles, 4 PD, 1 INT), FS Jessiah McGrew (67 tackles, 4 INT) are four starters who will all be out.  The Panthers should have all hands on deck on offense including both QB's and RB Owens (1,298 yards, 11 TD).

UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor said his defense will be without at least 6 or 7 starters.  But the offense is in much better shape led by QB Owen McCown, who is completing 67.7% of his passes for 2,695 yards and a 27-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season.

FIU is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall going for 86 combined points with Middle Tennessee, 61 with Liberty and 72 with Sam Houston State.  UTSA is 5-1-1 OVER in its last seven games overall going for 82 combined points with ECU, 78 with USF, 74 with Tulane, 72 with North Texas and 74 with Rice.  This total is too short given all the opt outs defensively plus how these teams trended down the stretch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Pelicans OVER 238.5

The Pelicans are 10-4 OVER in their last 14 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 237 points at the end of regulation in 10 of those 14 games.  The Pelicans rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 home games going for 241 or more combined points in eight of their last 11 home games.  This total of 238.5 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home, especially with their offense taking off even more since getting Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole back healthy in recent games.

The Suns are coming off a pair of OVERS combining for 235 points at Golden State and 240 points at home against the Lakers.  The Suns are playing a pressing style for four quarters that could give the Pelicans troubles with turnovers and quick buckets for the Suns in transition.  That style will also up the tempo in this game overall, which the Pelicans have no problem with.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Pelicans and Suns.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Bulls OVER 239.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and showing how potent they can be offensively when that's the case.

The Bulls are 4-0 in the last four games scoring 127 and 136 against Cleveland and 152 and 126 against Atlanta.  They went for 249, 302 and 261 combined points in their last three games, so this total of 239.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Chicago right now.

The Bulls should stay hot against the 76ers, who won't mind getting in a shootout with them tonight.  The 76ers also come in very healthy with Maxey, George, Edgecombe, Barlow and Grimes all expected to play.  Embiid is questionable.  The 76ers have the firepower with all these guys healthy to keep up with the Bulls in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls ML +100

The Chicago Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  The result has been a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS run in their last four games.  After beating the Cavs 127-111 as 5.5-point home dogs, they backed it up by beating the Cavs 136-125 as 8-point road dogs in the rematch.  After beating the Hawks 152-150 as 2-point road favorites, they backed it up with a 126-123 road win at Atlanta as 3.5-point dogs.

Now they take on a struggling Philadelphia 76ers team that is coming off a 114-106 home loss to the Nets as 9.5-point favorites.  They have the 76ers' number, too, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings while outscoring the 76ers by a combined 64 points in those three wins.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Friday.

20* Broncos/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Denver -12.5

The Broncos got humbled with a home loss to the Jaguars last week.  They outgained the Jaguars 445 to 346, or by 99 yards, so it was a misleading 34-20 defeat.  They must win out to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC now so they have no margin for error.  They certainly won't be taking the division rival Chiefs lightly as a result.

The Chiefs look like they are blatantly tanking right now with all of the starters they are resting due to injury.  It's not even just Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew being out, it's a lot more than that.  The Chiefs will now have to start 3rd-string QB Chris Oladokun.

It looks as if the Chiefs will now be without WR Rashee Rice and WR Tyquan Thornton.  They are also without three of their top four offensive tackles on the O-Line.  Minshew had now chance to be successful last week, and Oladokun has no chance to be successful this week with the offense will be fielding.

The Chiefs lost 26-9 at the Titans last week and it was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Titans outgained the Chiefs 376 to 133, or by 243 total yards.  The Broncos will post a similar beat down of the of the Chiefs not only in the stats, but on the scoreboard as well.  Oladokun is also at a big disadvantage having to prepare to start on a short week with this game being played on Thursday.

The Chiefs are also likely to be without several starters on defense in DT Nadi, CB McDuffie, CB Watson and LB Chenal who were all out last week.  The Broncos have been humming on offense putting up 34 points and 391 yards on the Packers and 445 yards on the Jaguars the last two weeks.  I expect the Broncos to dice up this short-handed Chiefs defense.

The Broncos are very healthy overall including on defense.  This will be a nightmare for Oladokun going up against a Denver defense that ranks 5th in scoring at 19.7 points per game, 4th in total defense at 291.6 yards per game, 2nd in yards per play at 4.9 and 1st in sacks at 4.2 per game.  The books can't set this number high enough as Denver should win this game by 2-plus touchdowns with ease.  

It will be similar to the Week 18 game last year where the Chiefs rested their starters and the Broncos won 38-0.  The Chiefs have incentive to tank to try and build around Mahomes for next year with the best draft pick possible.  With all the guys they are sitting out, it appears at least from a coaching and front office standpoint, they are trying to lose these final games.  The Chiefs will also have no home-field advantage here as almost all their tickets up up for sale and there will likely be more Broncos fans in attendance.  Denver needs this win like blood and will treat it like it.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

20* Rockets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on OVER 230.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are a perfect 11-0 OVER in their 11 home games this season.  Los Angeles home games are averaging 244.1 combined points per game.  It looks as though the Lakers will get Luka Doncic back as he has been upgraded to questionable, while Austin Reaves and LeBron are both healthy.  It hasn't mattered who has been in the lineup the Lakers have been a dead nuts OVER team all season, especially at home.

Houston is the 2nd-best road OVER team in the NBA.  The Rockets are 12-5 OVER in all road games averaging 235.3 combined points per game.  The OVER is 6-1 in Rockets last seven games overall with 231 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 234, 254 and 249 combined points in the three OVERS.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Lions/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on OVER 43

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one the worst, most banged up defenses in the NFL.  The OVER is 5-0 in Lions last five games overall with 53 or more combined points in all five.  They have combined for 51 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.  This total of 43 is very low for a game involving Detroit right now.

The Lions rank 2nd in scoring offense at 30.1 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  Detroit ranks 23rd in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 23rd in total defense at 347.4 yards per game and 24th at 5.8 yards per play.

The Lions just allowed 481 total yards to Aaron Rodgers and a suspect Pittsburgh offense last week.  While the Lions are very healthy on offense, their defense is decimated by injuries especially in the secondary.  They are without starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, one of their backup safeties in Avonte Madox, and starting CB Terrion Arnold.  They have 10 defenders on IR or out and another four questionable, including three starters.

I think this total has been set too low due to Minnesota going to 3rd-string QB Max Brosmer today.  I think Brosmer hasn't been given a fair shake since his only start came on the road in tough conditions against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks.  Brosmer went 7-of-9 passing taking over to an injured JJ McCarthy last week on the road against the New York Giants to preserve a 16-13 win.

Brosmer is going to look like a completely different QB today at home in perfect conditions in the dome against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, particularly one of the worst secondaries.  I think he is going to ball out today and have a much better game than most anticipate.  He will also be forced to keep up in a shootout because the Lions will get their points even against this solid Minnesota D.  It's a Minnesota D that just allowed 423 total yards to the Cowboys in their last indoor game two weeks ago.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Vikings and Lions.  These teams have actually combined for 50 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings.  This total of 43 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Thunder UNDER 233.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting between the Spurs and Thunder since the NBA Cup semifinals on December 13th.  These teams know each inside and out, and points will be very hard to come by tonight.

The Spurs upset the Thunder 111-109 for 220 combined points in that NBA Cup semifinal on December 13th.  The Spurs backed it up with a 130-110 home win over the Thunder for 240 combined points on December 23rd just two days ago.  Both teams shot lights out with the Thunder shooting 54% overall and 40% from 3-point range, while the Spurs shot 57% overall and 44% from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot that well again.

The Spurs and Thunder have combined for 220 or fewer points in four of their last six meetings.  The Thunder have been dominant defensively at home allowing just 103.9 points per game.  I fully expect them to shut down the Spurs in this rematch and to lead the way in us cashing this UNDER ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -9

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder on Christmas Day.  They are 26-4 this season with two of those losses coming to the San Antonio Spurs within the last two weeks.  They lost 111-109 in the NBA Cup semifinal and 130-110 in the rematch in San Antonio on December 23rd just two days ago.  It's safe to say the Thunder will be max motivated for revenge.

I like the Thunder's chances in their first home meeting with the Spurs this season.  The Thunder are 14-0 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by a whopping 19.3 points per game.  Their last four home games have been particularly dominant beating the Grizzlies by 16, the Clippers by 21, the Suns by 49 and the Mavericks by 21.

While the Thunder will be max motivated, I think this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Spurs.  They just beat the Thunder twice so what more do they have to prove?  I think they relax here and get rocked.  In that 130-110 win two days ago, the Spurs shot 57% from the field and 44% from 3-point range while attempting 17 more FT than OKC.  None of that is going to even come close to happening again here two days later.

The last three meetings in OKC have not been close with the Thunder winning by 12, 38 and 36 points over the Spurs.  The Thunder have the best home-court advantage in the NBA and it will be a raucous crowd for them on Christmas Day.  OKC is also as healthy as it has been in a long time and primed for a big effort as a result.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* Cal/Hawaii Xmas Eve No-Brainer on Hawaii ML -110

For starters, Hawaii is 13-0 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The Rainbow Warriors have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They will have no problem getting up for this standalone game on Christmas Eve to beat a Power 4 opponent in Cal.

These teams have two common opponents in Stanford and San Diego State.  Hawaii beat Stanford 23-20 and San Diego State 38-6, while Cal lost to San Diego State 34-0 and lost to Stanford 31-10.  Those results against common opponents show that the Rainbow Warriors are clearly the better team.

Hawaii has blowout home wins over Utah State by 18, San Diego State by 32 and Wyoming by 20 in its last three home games.  The Rainbow Warriors are outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per game and outgaining them by 103 yards per game at home this season.

While Hawaii has pretty much all hands on deck with the exception of WR Jackson Davis to the transfer portal, Cal is in limbo with head coach Justin Wilcox fired and Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi will take over next season.

Leading tackler LB Cade Uluave (88 tackles, 3 sacks) and top CB Hezekiah Masses (43 tackles, 12 PD, 5 INT) are both opt-out candidates for the Golden Bears.  TE Mason Mini (35 receptions, 387 yards, 4 TD) and WR Jordan King (22 receptions, 267 yards, 2 TD) are injured.  The Golden Bears cannot run the ball averaging just 79.8 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry this season.  That puts a lot of pressure on QB Sagapolutele to make plays.

I'll gladly back the team in the better mindset knowing head coach Timmy Chang and QB Micah Alejado will return next season to lead this squad.  Alejado was one of the best freshman QB's in the country this season, completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,832 yards with a 21-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season.  He should have his way with this Cal defense.  Bet Hawaii on the money line Wednesday.

15* Cal/Hawaii Xmas Eve Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50

The biggest reason I'm on the OVER in this game is due to Cal's change of philosophy since interim head coach Nick Rolovich took over.  The former Hawaii head coach is the offensive coordinator of the Golden Bears.  He has been going more up-tempo and pass-happy since taking over.

We really saw that play out in the regular season finale with the Golden Bears pulling the 38-35 upset of SMU for 73 combined points.  The Golden Bears ran 77 plays and put up 450 total yards on a solid SMU defense.  The threw 40 times against SMU and 50 times against Stanford the game prior.

I also like the OVER because neither team can run the football, so this game will be played through the air.  Cal averages 79.8 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, while Hawaii averages 104.9 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  Both coaches know they are almost wasting downs trying to run the football at this point.

The good news is both offenses can rely on reliable QB's to move the ball through the air.  Jaron-Kaewe Sagapolutele is completing 63.5% of his passes for 3,109 yards with a 17-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season for Cal.  The native of Hawaii will be looking to show out in front of all his fans back at home.  He's actually good friends with Hawaii QB Micah Alejado, who is completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,832 yards with a 21-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  Both are allowing more yards per play than their opponents average on offense.  Leading tackler LB Cade Uluave (88 tackles, 3 sacks) and top CB Hezekiah Masses (43 tackles, 12 PD, 5 INT) are both opt-out candidates for the Golden Bears.  Hawaii has two key injuries on defense in LB Jamih Otis (59 tackles) and CB Virdel Edwards (26 tackles, 5 PD).  

I expect both offenses to be ahead of both defenses in this fast-paced shootout on Christmas Eve where both QB's put on a show for their home fans.  Cal and its opponents have combined for at least 52 points in six of its last eight games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Cavs OVER 239

The Pelicans are 9-4 OVER in their last 13 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 237 points at the end of regulation in nine of those 13 games.  The Pelicans rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.

The Pelicans and Mavs combined for 232 points last night despite a terrible shooting night for both teams.  The Mavs shot 10-of-33 (30%) from 3-point range and 11-of-21 (51%) from the line.  The Pelicans shot 8-of-34 (24%) from 3-point range.  The pace was there for an OVER, but the shooting wasn't.

The pace will be there tonight against the Cavaliers, who rank 8th in pace and 10th in offensive rating.  The Cavs are coming off a 139-132 home win over the Hornets last night for 271 combined points.  They also went for 261 combined points with the Bulls the game prior.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Pelicans and Cavs.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +9.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 10-1 ATS in their 11 games overall and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall to be one of the best covering teams in the NBA over the last month.  They have gotten healthy and they are proving they have the offense to compete with almost anyone.

Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole are back healthy to join Trey Murphy, Derik Queen and company for a very talented offensive lineup.  The Pelicans have won five straight with a 23-point home win over Portland, a 10-point road win at Chicago, a 5-point upset home win over Houston, a 19-point home win over the Pacers and a 6-point home win over the Mavs.

The Pelicans are a deep team that can handle these back-to-back situations better than most.  The Cavaliers are not a deep team this season largely due to injuries.  They remain without Evan Mobley and Max Strus.

The Cavaliers have been one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this season going 8-22 ATS in their 30 games.  They are 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games with their two wins coming by 4 as 17-point favorites over the Wizards and by 7 as 9.5-point favorites over the Hornets.  They aren't blowing anyone out, and asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us against the red hot Pelicans is asking too much.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Hawks OVER 252.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams who are all offense and no defense square off Tuesday when the Chicago Bulls visit the Atlanta Hawks.  The Bulls rank 2nd in pace and 24th in defensive rating, while the Hawks rank 5th in pace and 18th in defensive rating.

The Hawks recently got Trae Young back healthy and he is the ultimate OVER player.  The OVER is 6-1 in Hawks last seven games overall going for 247 or more combined points in four of those seven games.  That includes 257 or more combined points four times.

Chicago is as healthy as it has been all season and thriving offensively as a result.  The Bulls have scored 152, 136 and 127 points in their last three games coming in.  The 152 came in a 152-150 win over the Hawks on Sunday for 302 combined points.

So we are basically getting 50 points to work with here in the rematch with this total set at 252.5.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 251 or more combined points in four of those five.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -1

The Milwaukee Bucks have more talent than they get credit for without Giannis.  Porter Jr., Rollins, Kuzma, Turner, Portis and Green are all healthy and doing more to try and get by without him.  They just took the Timberwolves to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 11.5-point dogs, and they will be motivated for a win tonight against the Indiana Pacers.

I think Milwaukee has more talent than Indiana, which is 6-23 SU this season and currently without Haliburton, Toppin, Nesmith, Sheppard and Jackson with McConnell questionable.  The Pacers are 0-5 SU in their last six games overall including a 19-point road loss to New Orleans and a 19-point home loss to Washington.

The spot really favors the Bucks, who had yesterday off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 103-95 loss in Boston last night.  They will also be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  Siakam, Mathurin and Nembhard who are shouldering all the load right now all played at least 36 minutes last night.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Bucks tonight.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Washington Wizards +5.5

The spot really favors the Washington Wizards tonight.  They had yesterday off, while the Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 139-132 loss in Cleveland last night.  I question how much the Hornets will have left in the tank here tonight, and they could also choose to rest some guys including La'Melo Ball, who has been battling through an ankle injury all season.

The Wizards are playing a lot better since getting their best player in Alex Sarr (18.9 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.9 BPG) healthy and back in the lineup.  The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with upset road wins over Indiana by 19 and Memphis by 8.  Their only losses came by 4 to Cleveland and twice to San Antonio.

The Hornets are 5-13 SU in their last 18 games with two of those wins coming in OT.  This is a team that's hard to trust to lay points against anyone, even the Wizards.  That's especially the case with the Wizards in the better rest spot tonight and playing some of their best basketball of the season.  Bet the Wizards Tuesday.

25* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky/Southern Miss OVER 57.5

Two up-tempo teams who are much better on offense than they are on defense square off in the New Orleans Bowl Tuesday night.  This bowl game will be played indoors on the fast track at the Superdome and it will be an absolute shootout.

Southern Miss ranks 11th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  The Eagles lose head coach Charlie Huff to Memphis, but offensive coordinator Blake Anderson will coach the bowl game and has been hired as their head coach next season.  The Eagles had almost no opt-outs and the only two players that could miss are both on defense in S Corey Myrick (82 tackles) and CB Josh Moten (57 tackles, 5 INT).

This Southern Miss defense has been getting absolutely shredded down the stretch.  The Eagles allowed 28 points and 428 total yards to one of the worst offenses in the country in Troy in their regular season finale.  They allowed 42 points and 449 total yards to a poor South Alabama team the game prior.  And they allowed 41 points and 449 yards to Texas State.

Senior QB Braylon Braxton was banged up down the stretch, so getting this extra time off to recover has been huge.  Braxton is completing 65.2% of his passes for 2,795 yards with a 23-to-7 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He leads a Southern Miss offense that is averaging 29.8 points per game on the season.

"He looks better now than he has looked in a very long time," Anderson said of Braxton. "I'm very encouraged that we can open things back up. What makes Braylon so hard to defend is his ability to create. We had to be very, very vanilla with what we were doing. We weren't as effective as we needed to be. I expect him to be much more like himself (against the Hilltoppers)."

Western Kentucky ranks 33rd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds.  The Hilltoppers are scoring 29.8 points per game and averaging 405.4 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  I don't think there's a drop off from either QB as Maverick McIvor (67.3% completions) and Rodney Tisdale (67.7% completions) both played well.  McIvor is healthy enough to play for the bowl game, and the Hilltoppers will have the element of surprise and may even play both.

This WKU defense is atrocious.  In their regular season finale with a trip to the C-USA title game at stake, they lost a 37-34 shootout to Jacksonville State for 71 combined points where they allowed a whopping 515 total yards to the Gamecocks.  They also allowed 539 total yards to a very bad Middle Tennessee team the conference game prior in a 42-26 shootout for 68 combined points.  This total of 57.5 is too short as both offenses will have their way with both defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 231.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best defensive team in the NBA by a wide margin.  They are 1st in defensive rating at 6.5 points per 100 possessions allowed better than the 2nd place Pistons.  They went for 219 combined points with Minnesota, 223 with the Clippers and 220 with the Spurs in their last three games overall.  This total of 231.5 is too high for a game involving the Thunder right now, especially when you consider they will be without Chet Holmgren tonight.

Memphis and its opponents have combined for 226 or fewer points in six of its last nine games overall.  This total of 231.5 is very high for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.  That's especially the case considering they will be without JA Morant tonight.  They just don't have much offensive firepower right now, and I would be surprised if they even reached 100 points against this elite OKC defense tonight.  

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Thunder and Grizzlies.  They combined for just 214 points in their lone meeting this season, and they have combined for 232 or fewer points in seven straight meetings, including 229 or fewer in seven of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* 49ers/Colts ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 45.5

The San Francisco 49ers are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the NFL, but also one of the worst defenses in the NFL at the same time.  With this game being played indoors in perfect conditions in the dome in Indianapolis Monday night, look for a shootout to break out between the 49ers and Colts.

The 49ers are 4-0 since Brock Purdy returned from a toe injury.  They have averaged 31.0 points per game in those four games.  Their offensive line is fully healthy, and they have plenty of weapons for Purdy to get the ball to.

The 49ers should hang another big number on this banged up Indianapolis defense.  The Colts are without their top two corners in Garnder and Ward, so expect Kyle Shanahan to go with a pass-heavy approach to take advantage of their biggest weakness.  That will also favor the OVER.

Philip Rivers came off the coach and nearly upset the Seahawks on the road in wet, windy conditions last week.  Now with a full week of practice, I expect even better things from Rivers and this passing offense this week.  The 49ers are fine letting teams throw the ball as they have one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL due to all they are missing.

In fact, the 49ers rank 21st allowing 5.7 yards per play and 30th allowing 68.7% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  The Colts are pretty healthy on offense right now and have ample weapons for Rivers to be successful with Pittman, Pierce, Downs and Warren all healthy.  Of course, a big game from RB Jonathan Taylor will help ease the pressure.  

Shane Steichen is one of the best play-callers in the game and has gotten the most out of his offenses with little talent at QB his entire time here.  Kyle Shanahan is also an offensive-minded head coach, and he has gotten the most out of Purdy and Mac Jones this season.  Both offenses will be ahead of both defenses tonight in a shootout.  

The 49ers are 7-3-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 47 or more combined points in seven of those 11 games.  The Colts and their opponents have combined for at least 46 points in 10 of their last 13 games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans ML -115

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 9-1 ATS in their 10 games overall and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall to be one of the best covering teams in the NBA over the last month.  They have gotten healthy and they are proving they have the offense to compete with almost anyone.

Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole are back healthy to join Trey Murphy, Derik Queen and company for a very talented offensive lineup.  The Pelicans have won four straight with a 23-point home win over Portland, a 10-pint road win at Chicago, a 5-point upset home win over Houston and 19-point home win over the Pacers.

The Mavericks are dealing with a lot of injuries right now and will be without Max Christie tonight.  Cooper Flagg popped up on the injury report as questionable.  The Mavericks are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games losing by 7 at Philadelphia against a 76ers team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They lost by 7 in Utah and by 21 in OKC, too.  Bet the Pelicans on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Mavericks/Pelicans OVER 240.5

The Pelicans are 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 237 points at the end of regulation in nine of those 12 games.  The Pelicans rank 11th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 home games going for 241 or more combined points in eight of their last 10 home games.  This total of 240.5 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home, especially with their offense taking off even more since getting Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole back healthy in recent games.

The Mavericks quietly profile as an OVER team ranking 7th in pace this season.  They are playing a lot faster with the emergence of Ryan Nembhard at point guard.  They are also playing more small ball this season with injuries to their big men.

Last time out, the Mavericks lost 121-114 in Philadelphia for 235 combined points.  The Mavericks shot 17% from 3 while the 76ers shot 43% overall and 30% from 3, yet they still went for 235 combined points.  The Pelicans are shooting at an elite level right now, and the Mavericks will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Illinois/Missouri FS1 No-Brainer on OVER 154

Illinois is an elite offensive team ranking 4th in adjusted offense this season.  The Fighting Illini are coming off a pair of Big Ten shootouts beating Ohio State 88-80 for 168 combined points and losing 83-80 to Nebraska for 163 combined points.  This total of 154 is too short for a game involving Illinois right now.

Missouri ranks 29th in adjusted offense and 105th in adjusted defense to profile as more of an OVER team.  That's especially the case when you factor in Missouri ranking 60th in average length of offensive possession, so the Tigers like to push the pace.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between Missouri and Illinois with 151 or more combined points in all five meetings, and 157 or more in four of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Denver/Tulsa OVER 163.5

Denver is a perfect 11-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last eight lined games.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 107th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 364th in adjusted defense.  They are the second-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

Tulsa is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall.  The Golden Hurricane and their opponents have combined for at least 163 points in four of their last five games.  Tulsa is an elite offensive team ranking 40th in adjusted offense and a mediocre defensive team at 148th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks +12

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a massive letdown spot.  They are coming off a 112-107 upset home win as 7-point dogs over the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.  They handed the Thunder just their 3rd loss of the season, and I fully expect the Timberwolves to be flat as a pancake Sunday.

The Milwaukee Bucks continue to play competitive basketball without Giannis.  They upset the Celtics by 15 as 9.5-point dogs recently.  They have also owned the Timberwolves going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  They will be giving their best effort tonight, and it will be good enough to stay within this inflated 12-point spread.  Bet the Bucks Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Falcons/Cardinals OVER 45.5

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games, five of which have seen 51 or more combined points, with four of those going for 60 or more combined points.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last six games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another two questionable.

This Arizona offense is forced to play fast to try and keep up in shootouts, and Jacoby Brissett has been doing a good job of it getting the ball to two of the most underrated weapons in the NFL in TE Trey McBride and WR Michael Wilson.  The Cardinals have scored at least 22 points in seven of their last nine games.  Now WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and WR Xavier Weaver are expected to return this week to give him even more weapons.

The Falcons are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 46 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The lone exception was when the Saints got 3 points on two trips to the 1-yard line and missed two more FG's.  Kirk Cousins is proving he still has what it takes, leading the 29-28 comeback in Tampa Bay last week with 476 total yards including 365 passing.

What was amazing was Cousins has been playing without Drake London, who is expected to return this week to make this Atlanta offense that much more potent.  Cousins, Bijan Robinson, London and Pitts should combine to have a monster game against this Arizona defense this week.

It's not like Atlanta is shutting down teams, either, so the Cardinals will get their points.  The Falcons have allowed at least 24 points in seven of their last eight games, including 27 or more six times during this stretch.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 47. or more combined points in five of those six.  This figures to be a shootout in perfect conditions in Arizona this weekend.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Falcons ML -125

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a 29-28 road win at Tampa Bay in which they racked up 476 total yards on the Bucs and outgained them by 138 yards.  That was a Thursday game, so this is a mini-bye week for the Falcons and they should come out of it fresh and ready to go.  They also come out of it healthier getting Drake London back in the lineup at WR to give Kirk Cousins a weapon he hasn't had in his time at QB.

The Falcons are poised to hang a big number on Arizona.  The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last six games.  They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters.  They have another two questionable.

It's no wonder the Cardinals are 0-6 SU in their last six games and 1-11 SU in their last 12 games.  They have incentive to keep losing to improve on their draft pick, too, so they aren't rushing anyone back from injury.  They are also down multiple starters on the offensive line including LT Paris Johnson and LG Evan Brown this week.  Jacoby Brissett has his work cut out for him behind this makeshift offensive line.

The Falcons have the much better defense in this matchup.  They are at least an average unit on that side of the ball that gets pressure at one of the top rates in the NFL.  They rank 15th in total defense at 323.6 yards per game and 2nd in sacks at 3.4 per game.  There is almost zero home-field advantage for the Cardinals at this point in the season with nothing to play for.  Bet the Falcons on the Money Line Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Broncos OVER 46.5

Two thriving offenses square off in perfect scoring conditions for a shootout in Denver Sunday afternoon.  Temps will be in the 60's with 5 MPH winds and no chance of precipitation.  I expect both offenses to continue thriving in this all-important game that could determine the top seed in the AFC.

Trevor Lawrence is playing at another level since getting a reliable #1 receiver in Jakobi Myers.  The Jaguars have now scored at least 25 points in seven consecutive games.  They just hung 48 on the Jets last week behind 6 total TD from Lawrence, which followed up 36 points against the Colts the previous week.  He and Liam Coen are in sync and hitting on all cylinders right now.

Bo Nix has shown he can take his game to the next level when he needs to.  He has one of the best games of his career last week in a 34-26 win over the Packers.  Nix threw for 302 yards and 4 TD against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  He will certainly thrive against this overrated Jacksonville defense that has played a bunch of weak offenses in recent weeks.

In fact, I think both defenses are overrated due to a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  And we've seen some real shootouts in Denver with 65 combined points with the Giants, 68 with the Cowboys and 60 with the Packers in recent weeks.  The Jaguars have certainly tranded OVER on the road combining for 59 points with the Raiders, 65 with the Texans and 51 with the Cardinals in recent weeks.  This total of 46.5 is too short giving how well both offenses are playing.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cincinnati/Clemson UNDER 141.5

Cincinnati is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Bearcats rank 229th in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense.  The Bearcats are 8-3 UNDER in all games this season.  They are scoring just 75.5 points per game and allowing 65.5 points per game.

Clemson is also a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Tigers rank 330th in adjusted tempo and play at a snail's pace.  They are also 33rd in adjusted defense allowing just 65.9 points per game.

This game will be played on a neutral in Gainesville with unfamiliar shooting backgrounds.  Points will be hard to come by for both teams today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Vikings/Giants OVER 44

The Giants are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 44 or more combined points in all nine games, and 47 or more in eight of them.  This total of 44 is too short for a game involving the Giants.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.5 points per game during their eight-game losing streak.  They have eight defenders on IR or out, plus another three defenders listed as questionable coming into this one.  They cannot stop the run allowing 119 or more rushing yards in every game during their 8-game losing streak.  And they have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL to boot.

But Jaxson Dart and Jameis Winston have kept the offense afloat scoring 20 or more points in eight of their last nine games.  They put up 382 total yards in a 29-21 loss to the Commanders last week.  They are pretty much fully healthy on offense with the exception of the guys they lost early in the season.

JJ McCarthy returned to the lineup two weeks ago and has put together two of the best games of his career.  Not surprisingly, it has come against two NFC East defenses, and he gets another one of the worst defenses in the NFL this week.

McCarthy and the Vikings want to build something here at the end of the season that can carry over into next season and they are motivated to finish strong.  McCarthy threw 3 TD's and led the Vikings to 31 points against Washington in his return two weeks ago, and he came back last week with 3 total TD in a 34-26 road win at Dallas.  He is gaining confidence, and the Giants won't be able to stop it.

Minnesota hasn't exactly been a lockdown defense.  The Vikings have allowed 23 or more points in seven of their last nine games.  They just allowed 423 total yards to the Cowboys last week.  And now injuries are a major concern as they will be without both LB Jonathan Greenard (38 tackles, 3 sacks) and DE Javon Hargrave (45 tackles, 3 sacks) this week after both got hurt against Dallas.  Both offenses will be ahead of both defenses in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -2.5

JJ McCarthy returned to the lineup two weeks ago and has put together two of the best games of his career.  Not surprisingly, it has come against two NFC East defenses, and he gets another one of the worst defenses in the NFL this week.

McCarthy and the Vikings want to build something here at the end of the season that can carry over into next season and they are motivated to finish strong.  McCarthy threw 3 TD's in a 31-0 win over Washington, and he came back last week with 3 total TD in a 34-26 road win at Dallas.  He is gaining confidence, and the Giants won't be able to stop it.

The Giants have incentive to lose to get a better draft pick and they are playing like it.  The Giants are 0-8 in their last eight games overall with an 18-point loss in New England and an 8-point home loss to Washington in their last two games since Jaxson Dart returned from injury.  The problem isn't Dart and the offense, though, it's this pitiful defense.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.5 points per game during their eight-game losing streak.  They have eight defenders on IR or out, plus another three defenders listed as questionable coming into this one.  They cannot stop the run allowing 119 or more rushing yards in every game during their 8-game losing streak.  And they have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL to boot.

The best unit on the field should be this Minnesota defense, and I would give Minnesota's offense the advantage as well considering all the weapons McCarthy has to work with.  The Vikings should have no problem winning this game by a FG or more to get the cover.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs were not only eliminated from the playoffs last year, but they also lost their MVP QB in Patrick Mahomes to a season-ending injury.  They have since lost several other players to injury to will sit out this week, a clear sign the Chiefs don't mind tanking the rest of the way to get the best draft pick possible.

Offensively, the Chiefs will be without Mahomes, WR Rice, WR THornton, LT Simmons, RT Moore, and backup LT Morris.  Gardner Minshew has almost no shot behind this offensive line and lack of weapons this week.  Defensively, the Chiefs will be without DT Nnadi, CB McDuffie and LB Chenal who all suffered injuries last week.  What a mess.

The Titans have no incentive to lose because they have their QB of the future in Cam Ward and they are doing everything possible to get him going in the 2H of the season.  He is really playing well scoring 24 points on the Seahawks, 31 on the Browns and 24 on the 49ers in three of his last four games.  The Titans are very healthy on offense, too.

The Titans have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL led by DE Jeffery Simmons and NT T'Vondre Sweat.  They will have their way with this makeshift KC offensive line, which will help alleviate some of the pressure on their secondary, which is their most banged up unit.  No matter how you slice it, the Titans are better than the Chiefs in their current state, and they should not be catching points at home as a result.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints -4.5

The New Orleans Saints believe they have their QB of the future in Tyler Shough.  He is rapidly climbing up the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds with his great play here down the stretch.  And now Shough is primed for his best game yet against what is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the New York Jets.

The Jets know they don't have their QB of the future on their roster and have incentive to tank.  And with some moves they've made to sit numerous starters out, they are clearly trying to lose games right now.  It has shown by their play on the field in recent weeks, and this is more of a fade of the Jets than anything.

The Jets' 34-10 home loss to Miami two weeks ago looks really bad now when you consider Miami came back the next week and was blown out by Pittsburgh.  Last week, the Jets made Trevor Lawrence look like the best QB in the NFL as he accounted for 6 total touchdowns in a 48-20 loss to the Jaguars.

Giving up 34 points to that weak Miami offense and then 48 to Jacksonville shows just how poorly this defense is playing.  They have gotten much worse since trading away their two best defenders in Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner, and it's really starting to show now that they are injured.  The Jets have eight defenders on IR including three starters in FS Adams, CB Brownlee and CB Thomas.  They have one of the worst CB rooms in the NFL.  They are also without starting LB Mauigoa and backup DE Watts this week.

I haven't even gotten to the offense, which is starting rookie Brady Cook.  If that's not a sign they are tanking I don't know what is because both Fields and Taylor are healthy enough to start.  Cook has been a disaster, completing 57.1% of his passes, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt with a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He doesn't have much help with WR Garrett Wilson out for the year and TE Mason Taylor out again this week.  This current version of the Jets might be the worst team in the NFL if it's not the Raiders.

The Saints have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost by 4 at Miami as 5-point dogs, upset the Bucs 24-20 as 7.5-point road dogs and upset the Panthers 20-17 as 2.5-point home dogs.  The Panthers were coming off a bye week, too.  

While I like Shough and his dual-threat ability, it's this Saints defense that is grossly underrated.  The Saints have allowed just 17.8 points per game in their last five games.  They are fully healthy on defense right now too.  I expect the defense to shut down Cook, and Shough to make enough plays with his arm and his legs to lead New Orleans to a win by a TD or more.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* Bucs/Panthers NFC South No-Brainer on OVER 45

The Bucs are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  Their offense is as healthy as it has been all season with Evans, McMillan, Egbuka, Godwin, Otton and Irving all playing in this game.  They just hung 28 points on the Falcons last week with most of these guys available, but now they will have everyone available this week.

The problem for the Bucs has been defense, where they have allowed an average of 29.3 points per game during their 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS stretch in their last six games.  They allowed 44 points to the Bills, 34 to the Rams, and most shockingly 29 points and 476 total yards to the Falcons and Kirk Cousins last week in their 29-28 defeat.  They do get some guys back from injury this week, but this is a bad, banged up defense.

The Panthers have some injuries of their own on defense that the Bucs can take advantage of.  They will be without DE Tershawn Wharton (36 tackles, 2 sacks) and LB Trevin Wallace (60 tacklers, 2 sacks) this week.  This is a below-average Panthers defense as it is and missing two key starters along the front seven won't help matters.

I think Bryce Young and the Panthers will be forced to keep up in a shootout.  They are fully healthy on offense right now with the exception of one offensive lineman.  Young has some great weapons in Dowdle and Hubbard at RB, plus McMillan, Legette and Coker at WR.  He has proven he can keep up with teams in shootouts just like he did in his last home game, a 31-28 win over the Rams for 59 combined points.  This game will play out similarly.

The Bucs and Panthers combined for 62 and 49 points in their two meetings last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Both offenses will have their way with these suspect defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Chargers/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 49.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall behind one of the best offenses in the NFL, but one of the worst defenses.  They have gone for 49 or more combined points in nine of their last 11 games, including 57 or more combined points in eight of those contests.  Dallas home games are averaging 61.6 combined points per game this season.

The Cowboys rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.1 points per game and 1st in total offense at 396.9 yards per game.  The Cowboys are fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Tyler Guyton.  Dallas ranks 31st in scoring defense at 30.0 points per game and 29th in total defense at 374.9 yards per game.  They are without CB Bland, and both CB Carson and DT Quinnen Williams are questionable.  Williams had to leave the game last week when they allowed 34 points to JJ McCarthy and the Vikings.

This total has been set too low due to the Chargers playing a string of bad offenses but good defenses in the Raiders, Eagles and Chiefs in their last three games.  They are bound to get in a shootout with the Cowboys as Justin Herbert lights up their defense.  He has all of his top weapons healthy for this one and their offensive line will hold up against a Dallas defense that lacks a consistent pass rush.

The Chargers haven't played many elite offenses like the Cowboys this season, so their defensive numbers are a little skewed.  Against some of the better offenses they faced they allowed 38 points to the Colts and 35 to the Jaguars.  If one team gets into the 30's in this game it's going OVER, and it's very likely one team gets into the 30's if not both.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Lakers/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 229.5

The Lakers are 18-8 OVER in all games this season.  The Lakers are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall finishing with 230 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  This total of 229.5 is too short for a game involving the Lakers right now.

The Clippers are as healthy as they have been in a long time with both Harden and Leonard expected to play in this one.  They won't mind getting in a shootout with the Lakers.  They just did on November 25th with the Lakers winning 135-118 for 253 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bears +3

Note: I released the Bears +3 Sunday night as soon as the lines came out.  The Packers had a ton of injuries against the Broncos that made this a 25* play at +3.  As of this writing on Friday, the Bears have flipped to the favorites.  I would take the Bears on the Money Line if you purchased this play later in the week.  It's still a 25* play -140 or better.

Few teams are playing as well as the Bears right now since they got healthy on defense.  It was a bit of a fluky start as they were living off turnovers, but that is no longer the case as the Bears are real contenders in their current state.  They proved that by going into Green Bay and taking the Packers to the wire two weeks ago.

The Bears were driving deep in Green Bay territory before throwing an interception in the end zone on 4th and 1 in the final seconds.  They would have gone for 2 and the win had they scored.  That was a very evenly-matched game in Green Bay, but the Bears will have the advantage at home this time around.  They are 5-1 SU at home this season and will have one of the most hostile crowds in franchise history with the NFC North title at stake in this game.

I became a Bears believer when they went into Philadelphia and manhandled the Eagles in a 24-15 victory as 7-point road dogs three weeks ago.  The Bears outgained the Eagles 425 to 317, or by 108 total yards.  What really stood out was they rushed for 281 yards on that Philadelphia defense, which is one of the best in the league.  The Bears had no letdown following that loss to the Packers two weeks ago, handling their business in a dominant 31-3 home win over the Browns last week.  They held the Browns to 192 total yards in the win.

The Bears are fully healthy on defense for the first time all season.  The offense will be without Odunze and Burden, but they were without Odunze last week too.  They have plenty of depth at receiver with Moore, Zaccheaus and Duverney, plus TE's Loveland and Kmet at real weapons.  But what I'm really banking on is the Bears to win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football and to run wild on the Packers in this one.

The Bears rank 2nd in rushing offense at 152.2 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per carry.  The two-headed monster of Swift and Monangai has been unstoppable, and Caleb Williams has utilized his legs well all season.  The Packers have been good against the run up to this point, but injuries on defense in recent weeks make them very vulnerable moving forward.

It's not just that they lost their best defensive player in Micah Parsons, either.  SS Evan Williams (85 tackles, 3 INT) left the 34-26 loss at Denver last week and hasn't practiced yet this week.  DE Knglsey Enagbare is questionable.  The Packers haven't really recovered since losing their best interior defender in DT Devonte Wyatt.  DE Collin Oliver has been ruled out.  What was a strength of the Packers all season has now turned into a weakness with one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.

The Packers suffered two key injuries in the loss to Denver on offense, too.  WR Christian Watson was hospitalized with a shoulder injury and is highly questionable to play.  RT Zach Tom suffered another injury and is almost certainly out.  RB Josh Jacobs has yet to practice this week and is questionable.  Jacobs, Toms and Williams are more doubtful than questionable after missing practice all week.  

Teams coming off a road game in Denver are 6-17 ATS in the last 23 games, including 0-6 ATS this season.  The travel after playing in the altitude on a short week is not a good spot to be in for Green Bay this week.  The Packers are falling apart at the seams heading into their biggest game of the season.  I think the Bears are finally positioned to dethrone them with their biggest win in years this weekend.  Bet the Bears Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pistons OVER 232.5

The Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team right now thanks to the return of La'Melo Ball (19.9 PPG, 8.8 APG) to go along with three proven scorers in Miles Bridges (21.4 PPG), Kon Kneuppel (19.4 PPG) and Brandon Miller (18.2 PPG).

Ball returned last game to lead the Hornets to a 133-126 home win over the Hawks and 259 combined points.  He had 28 points and 13 assists in his return.  Kenueppel had 28 points, Miller 26 and Bridges 16 in the win.  The Hornets play faster with Ball and are worse off defensively, but they are actually a very good offensive team when he's in there.

The Pistons are fully healthy right now and a very good offensive team when that's the case.  The Pistons are 3-0 OVER in their last three home games combining for 257 points with Atlanta, 236 with Milwaukee and 238 with Portland.  This total of 232.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* James Madison/Oregon CFB Playoff No-Brainer on James Madison +21.5

There's a 60% chance of rain in Eugene Saturday night.  That will help keep this game on the ground and keep scoring suppressed.  The total has already been bet down to 47 as of this writing, and in what is expected to be a lower-scoring game, that benefits the underdog especially one catching 21.5 points with that small of a total.

Oregon has no motivation to get margin here.  It's just win and get out.  Oregon needs to be able to run the football to be effective offensively, and few defenses in the country are equipped to stop the run quite like this James Madison crew.  Oregon is 12th in the country at 218.4 rushing yards per game.

The reason James Madison is here is because of its defense.  The Dukes rank 8th in scoring defense at 15.8 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 247.6 yards per game and 4th at 4.1 yards per play.  But particularly helpful for this matchup is the Dukes ranking 2nd in the country against the run at 76.2 yards per game and 3rd at 2.5 yards per carry.  They are legitimately one of the best run defenses in the country and can stack up against any of the best Power 5 teams against the run.

I also like that James Madison is a methodical, run-heavy offense that will try and shorten this game simply by taking every second off the clock they can before they snap the football.  It's their best path to being competitive and they know it.  The Dukes rank 122nd in tempo snapping the ball every 28.8 seconds.  That is really slow when you consider they were going for style points the entire 2H of the season on offense.  

Oregon is in no hurry either, ranking 103rd in tempo snapping the ball every 27.7 seconds.  I can see them sitting on the ball in the 2H.  Getting 21.5 points here in what will be a defensive battle is tremendous value.  James Madison held Louisville to just 264 total yards on the road back when Louisville was fully healthy early in the season.  They can hang with Oregon and will be out to prove it.  They aren't just happy to be here, especially with all of the talk about how the Group of 5 teams don't belong leading up to this game.  

Oregon's offensive and defensive coordinators both took head coaching jobs elsewhere.  Both will remain with the team for the playoff run, but you know their entire focus is not with the team as they are trying to recruit players for their new schools.  It has to at least be a little bit of a distraction for both coordinators at the very least.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Pelicans OVER 233

The Pelicans are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 238 points at the end of regulation in eight of those 11 games.  The Pelicans rank 14th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 home games going for 241 or more combined points in eight of their last nine home games.  This total of 233 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home.

The Pacers also like to play with pace and will have no problem getting up and down with the Pelicans in this one.  Look for Indiana to have one of its best offensive outputs of the season tonight to keep up with New Orleans in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Auburn/Purdue Top 25 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 153.5

Auburn is 9-2 OVER in all games this season.  The Tigers and their opponents have combined for 155 or more points in nine of their 11 games this season.  They rank 14th in adjusted offense and just 77th in adjusted defense to profile as a dead nuts OVER team.

Purdue actually ranks 1st in adjusted offense this season.  After four straight grinders against under teams in Rutgers, Iowa State, Minnesota and Marquette, the Boilermakers will enjoy this opportunity to face Auburn.  They played Alabama in a 87-80 win for 167 combined points earlier this season, and Auburn profiles similarly to Alabama.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets ML +105

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They are playing with double-revenge after a 3-point home loss to the Nuggets on November 21st followed by a 3-point road loss to the Nuggets on December 15th in OT just a few days ago.  They got called for a bogus off the ball foul on an inbounds play in the final seconds that allowed the Nuggets to force OT.

Predictably, the Rockets were flat in their next game losing outright as 9.5-point road favorites at New Orleans.  It was a sandwich spot coming off that deflating loss to the Nuggets, and with a rematch with the Nuggets on deck today.  Now we will get their best effort as this is the game they want to win more than any other this season.

The Nuggets are 'fat and happy' having already beaten the Rockets twice.  I don't think we get their best effort here as a result.  Keep in mind the Rockets were 1-point road favorites at Denver just a few days ago, so they should not be underdogs in the rematch.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Rockets on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Nuggets UNDER 237.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  These teams just met five days ago on December 15th.  They also squared off on November 21st.  So this will be the 3rd meeting between the Nuggets and Rockets in less than a month.

The first meeting was a defensive battle with Denver winning 112-109 for just 221 combined points.  The most recent meeting was tied 117-117 at the end of regulation for 234 combined points before going to OT.  This total of 237.5 has been set too high for the rematch as this figures to be another low-scoring, defensive battle.

The Rockets really profile as an UNDER team ranking 28th in pace and 5th in defensive rating.  The Nuggets are in no hurry either ranking 21st in pace.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Eagles/Commanders NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Washington +7

The Philadelphia Eagles are getting too much credit for their 31-0 win over the hapless Raiders last week.  They beat a Raiders team with no offense that was playing a backup QB in Kenny Pickett.  It's a Eagles team that was 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games without outright losses as favorites to the Cowboys, Bears and Chargers.  They were outgained by 108 yards by the Bears and by 134 yards by the Cowboys, too.

The Eagles certainly cannot be 7-point road favorites over the Washington Commanders this week when you consider they are still without two of their best players on RT Lane Johnson and DE Jalen Carter.  Over the last 10 years, the Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Johnson starts, and 13-26 SU when he doesn't.

Marcus Mariota has been a better QB than Jaden Daniels this season.  Mariota is averaging 7.5 yards per attempt compared to 6.7 per attempt for Daniels.  He is averaging 6.1 yards per carry compared to 4.8 per carry for Daniels.  Time and time again the Commanders are getting disrespected because Mariota is their QB rather than Daniels.  This creates line value we can exploit.

Mariota has been awesome in his last two starts, a 27-26 (OT) home loss to the Broncos, who many believe are the best team in the AFC.  And last week he led the Commanders to a 29-21 road win over the New York Giants.  The team plays hard for him and loves him, and the offense is fully healthy with the exception of TE Ertz and LT Tunsil.  WR McClaurin, WR Samuel and RB Rodriquez are all good to go this week.

The Commanders are also as healthy as they have been in a long time on defense.  They held the Giants to 21 points last week.  DE Drake Jackson returns to bolster a defensive line that could use the help.  And it's not like the Eagles have been explosive on offense at any point this season.  This feels like it's going to be low-scoring, defensive battle so getting 7 points with the home underdog is tremendous value.

That's especially the case when you consider the Commanders always seem to play the Eagles tough.  In fact, five of the last six meetings were decided by one score.  The lone exception was in the playoffs last season when the Eagles blitzed the Commanders on their way to winning the Super Bowl.  So this is Washington's first shot at revenge, and they will put their best foot forward.  The Eagles know in the back of their minds they only need to win one of their final three games to clinch the NFC East, so they aren't playing with much urgency right now.  Philadelphia hasn't won a road game by more than 6 points all season.  Bet the Commanders Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Denver/Northern Colorado OVER 162

Denver is a perfect 10-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last seven lines games.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 107th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 365th in adjusted defense.  They are the single-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

Northern Colorado and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in five of its last seven games overall.  That includes a 101-90 loss to Texas Tech last time out for 191 combined points.

The Bears profile similarly to the Pioneers in that they rank 114th in adjusted offense and 225th in adjusted defense.  They are a much better offensive team than a defensive team.  Both teams should have their way offensively in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* CFB Playoff TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Miami/Texas A&M UNDER 51.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 51.5 ticket between Miami and Texas A&M Saturday in College Station.  There will be 15-25 MPH sustained winds for this one with gusts even higher.  That will make it very difficult for both passing offenses to be effective, and the passing offenses are the weaknesses of both of these teams anyway if they have one.

Miami has been led all season by one of the most elite, talented defenses in the country, especially along the front seven.  The Hurricanes rank 6th in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game, 10th in total defense at 277.8 yards per game, 8th at 4.5 yards per play, 7th in rushing defense at 86.8 yards per game and 10th at 2.9 yards per carry allowed.

The only two games Miami lost were due to turnovers by QB Carson Beck.  He threw 2 interceptions in a 26-20 (OT) road loss at SMU.  He threw 4 INT in a 24-21 home loss to Louisville.  You can bet Miami is going to try and be more conservative with him in this game especially given the forecast because they don't want him to lose the game for them knowing they have a championship-caliber defense.

Texas A&M ranks 37th in scoring defense at 21.9 points per game, 17th in total defense at 309.8 yards per game and 34th at 5.0 yards per play.  The Aggies are also 36th allowing 127.1 rushing yards per game.  They are elite against the pass at 19th at 182.8 yards per game allowed.  Miami would be smart to try and keep the ball on the ground more against this defense.

Texas A&M is 28th in rushing offense at 192.7 yards per game.  They get RB Le'Veon Moss back from injury as he has been out since Week 7.  They are going to want to utilize him.  It looks like both teams are getting reinforcements on defense for this one.  CB Keionte Scott (44 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT), NT David Blay (15 tackles) and CB OJ Frederique (10 tackles, 5 PD) are all expected to return from injury for Miami.  S Bryce Anderson and LB Scooby Williams should both be back from injury for the Aggies as well.

Miami and its opponents have combined for 51 or fewer points in nine consecutive games heading into this game, making for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER.  That includes Miami scoring several times late in games looking for style points and they still didn't top 51 combined points in any of their last nine games.  

Texas A&M and its opponents have combined for 51 or fewer points in four of its last five home games.  The only exception was that wild game against South Carolina where they fell behind 30-3 and had to play hurry-up to come back and win.  That's not going to happen here as this will likely be a tight game throughout played close to the vest with the defenses ruling the day.  It's also a 12:00 EST early start time which I love for UNDERS.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Thunder/Timberwolves NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +7.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are fully healthy tonight with Anthony Edwards making his return to action from a 3-game absence.  The Timberwolves actually managed to win two of their last three games without him including an upset road win at Golden State.  He was last seen hanging 40 points on the Suns.

It's no surprise Edwards returns for this game against Oklahoma City as he and the Timberwolves want revenge on the Thunder after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them last season.  They fell short in a 113-105 road loss as 11-point dogs in their first shot at revenge on November 26th.  But now they get the Thunder at home for the first time this season, and given how motivated they'll be getting 7.5 points with them at home is a tremendous value.

That's especially the case given the favorable spot for the Timberwolves.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 11 days.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 122-101 home win over the Clippers last night.  They also participated in the NBA Cup in Las Vegas prior and are still recovering from that.  The spot really favors Minnesota tonight.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* Alabama/Oklahoma CFB Playoff No-Brainer on Oklahoma +1.5

There's no home-field advantage as strong as the college football playoffs.  I don't think it's being factored into this line enough for how big of an advantage it is going to be for the Oklahoma Sooners in HS Football country for a Friday night home game.  It's simply going to be electric in Norman Friday night.

The Sooners are 6-1 at home this season.  They already beat Alabama 23-21 as 6.5-point road dogs, and now are 1.5-point home dogs in the rematch.  I don't think that 5-point adjustment is enough for flipping home fields, especially when you consider the way the Crimson Tide have struggled here down the stretch.

Alabama was not impressive in any of its final three SEC games dating back to that 23-21 home loss to Oklahoma.  The Crimson Tide did outgain the Sooners heavily due to holding onto the ball for most the game but not doing much with it.  They only outgained the Sooners 4.4 to 4.2 yards per play for the game, which is the more important stat rather than total yards.

Alabama was lucky to beat Auburn 27-20 as 7-point road favorites.  The Crimson Tide were outgained 411 to 280 by the Tigers, or by 131 yards.  They were also outgained 5.5 yards per play to 3.8 yards per play by the Tigers, who were with an interim head coach and just playing out the string.

Then last time out Alabama lost 28-7 to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.  They were held to 209 total yards by the Bulldogs and this game was over by halftime.  It's clear that QB Ty Simpson is playing through injury and just hasn't been very good at all with that injury.  And the Crimson Tide are one of the worst rushing teams in the SEC, so they are giving him no help on the ground.  Simpson went 19-of-35 for 122 yards against Auburn, averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt.  He went 19-of-39 for 212 yards against Georgia, averaging just 5.4 per attempt.  He got most his yardage in garbage time, too.

It's not going to get any easier for Simpson up against arguably the best defense in the country in Oklahoma here.  The Sooners rank 6th in scoring defense at 13.9 points per game, 7th in total defense at 273.6 yards per game and 7th at 4.2 yards per play.  John Mateer was also playing with an injured hand in the 2H of the season, and getting these last three weeks off have been huge for him to recover.

I think we see the best version of this Oklahoma offense Friday with a healthy Mateer now.  The Sooners coming off a misleading 17-13 home win over LSU in the regular season finale also has them undervalued.  They played not to lose knowing they just needed a win to get into the playoff.  Now that they are in, I expect the entire playbook to be open for Mateer and company.  

Keep in mind Oklahoma outgained LSU 393 to 198, or by 195 total yards, so it was completely misleading.  Mateer threw for 318 yards and 2 TD, but his 3 INT kept LSU in the game.  I like the fact that he had one of his best passing games of the season from a yardage standpoint.  He really just needs to protect the football here and let his defense win the game again, but I know he's capable of making the plays when necessary to get the Sooners the win.

Oklahoma has a huge advantage in special teams over Alabama.  The Sooners have Lou Groza award winner Tate Sandell, who went 7-for-7 on 50-plus yard FG's as part of his 23-of-24 (96%) for the season.  Alabama has one of the worst kickers in the country in Conor Salty, who went 13-of-20 (65%) on FG's this season including a miss on his only attempt over 50.  That's a really poor percentage when you consider he only attempted one long kick all season.  This game could easily come down to the kicking game.

Oklahoma got good injury news with DE R Mason Thomas (9 TFL, 6 sacks) returning for the first time since Week 10.  He's like a first-round draft pick.  Alabama got bad news with DE LT Overton (35 tackles, 4 sacks) ruled out for this game.  That's just another hidden advantage for the Sooners heading into this one.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Oklahoma Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Hawks OVER 239.5

The Atlanta Hawks have been trending OVER without Trae Young anyway, so I'm not that concerned that he will sit tonight.  Atlanta is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 games overall finishing with 237 or more combined points in eight of their last 10 games, nine of which have been without Young.  They play fast with or without Young and still have plenty of offensive talent with Johnson and Alexander-Walker really taking their games to the next level this season.

The Spurs are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 237 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They are playing more small ball and they are fully healthy now with Victor Wembenyama on a minutes restriction.  I actually like San Antonio OVERS more when he doesn't play, and there's a chance he sits tonight on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Spurs and Hawks.  They have combined for at least 230 points in nine of those 10 meetings, and 244 or more in five of their last six.  That includes a 135-126 home win by the Spurs in their first meeting this season on November 20th for 261 combined points.  This total is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia 76ers +6

The Knicks were in a letdown spot and I faded them successfully with the Pacers +5 last night.  The Knicks managed to win by 1 thanks to a Jalen Brunson 3-pointer.  But the spot is even worse for the Knicks tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and still reveling in accolades from winning the NBA Cup.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers are laying in wait after having the last four days off.  They will be max motivated to dethrone the NBA Cup champs, and they are about as healthy as they have been all season coming into this one, so I like their chances.

Tyrese Maxey (31.5 PPG, 7.2 APG) makes his return from a two-game absence due to illness.  He is the one player they cannot afford to be without.  Joel Embiid is out, but they've actually been better without him this season.  Paul George, VJ Edgecombe, Quentin Grimes and Jared McCain are all healthy and playing well.  The spot is too for for the 76ers and too poor for the Knicks to pass up tonight.  Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Eastern Michigan/Akron OVER 157

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 25th in adjusted tempo, 20th in average length of offensive possession, 3rd in adjusted offense and 210th in adjusted defense.  The Zips are 7-3 OVER in their 10 lined games and are scoring 95.8 points per game this season.

In fact, Akron and its opponents have combined for 156 or more points in all 11 games this season, none of which went to OT.  This total of 157 is too short for a game involving the Zips, who just combined for 215 points in regulation with Murray State last time out.

No question Eastern Michigan is the opposite wanting to slow it down ranking 290th in adjusted tempo.  But the Zips will control the tempo playing at home.  And we've seen EMU get in shootouts already with two other teams that like to play fast like Akron.  They went for 186 combined points with Oakland and 173 combined points with IU Indy.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on Utah Jazz +7

The Utah Jazz can beat anyone at home.  They are 7-7 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  Only four times in 14 home games have they lost by more than 7 points, and two of those came against the best team in the NBA in the THunder.  The others came against Atlanta by 10 and Houston.

But the Jazz also upset Houston, Dallas, Chicago, Indiana and the Clippers at home.  And they can hang with the Lakers at home, which they have proven once already this season in a 108-106 loss as 9-point dogs on November 23rd.  Utah is now 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with the Lakers with losses by 1 and 2 points, and an upset win by 12 as 9-point dogs.

This isn't the best version of the Lakers they will be facing Thursday night, either.  The Lakers will be without two starters and two of their best players in Austin Reaves (27.8 PPG, 6.7 APG, 5.8 RPG) and De'Andre Ayton (15.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG).  The Lakers have no business being 7-point road favorites without these two.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

20* Missouri State/Arkansas State Xbox Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 54.5

One hidden advantage here to backing the OVER is that the Xbox Bowl will be played indoors at the Ford Center at the Star, which is the practice facility of the Dallas Cowboys.  It will be perfect conditions for a shootout, and both teams have been trending OVER to close out the season.

Missouri State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games.  The Bears beat UTEP 38-24 for 62 combined points.  They racked up 436 total yards in victory.  They lost 41-34 to Kennesaw State for 75 combined points.  They had 535 total yards while allowing 500 yards to the Owls.  And last time out they lost 42-30 to Louisiana Tech for 72 combined points.  They had 416 yards but allowed 475 to the Bulldogs, including 388 rushing.

Arkansas State is 2-0 OVER in its last two games.  The Red Wolves lost 34-30 to Louisiana for 64 combined points.  They had 394 total yards in defeat.  They won 30-29 at App State to become bowl eligible in their finale for 59 combined points.  They had 448 total yards while allowing 453 yards to the Mountaineers.

I love that both teams have veteran QB's who are going to ball out in this bowl game.  Missouri State senior QB Jacob Clark is one of the more underrated QB's in the country.  He has completed 65.1% of his passes for 2,895 yards with a 24-to-11 TD/INT ratio.  Arkansas State junior QB Jaylen Raynor has completed 67.2% of his passes for 3,076 yards with a 16-to-11 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 439 yards and seven scores.

Both offenses are ahead of both defenses.  Arkansas State ranks 108th in total defense at 416 yards per game and 116th at 6.1 yards per play.  Missouri State ranks 88th in scoring defense at 28.3 points per game, 72nd in total defense at 384.8 yards per game and 97th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Bears are 112th allowing 4.8 yards per carry, while the Red Wolves are 103rd at 4.7 yards per carry allowed.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on UNDER 45.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between the Rams and Seahawks Thursday night.  There will be rain throughout, but the bigger factor is 17 MPH sustained winds with gusts in the 30's.  It's going to be hard for both offenses to throw the football, so this game will be played with a lot of heavy formations and mostly on the ground with a short passing game.

Seattle ranks 2nd in scoring defense at 17.3 points per game, 4th in total defense at 283.4 yards per game and 1st at 4.7 yards per play.  They are also 2nd allowing just 3.8 yards per rush.  In their first meeting this season, the Seahawks held the Rams to 21 points, 249 total yards and 5.0 yards per play.  Nobody has held the Rams down like they did this season, and that was in perfect weather in Los Angeles.

The Rams rank 3rd in scoring defense at 18.6 points per game.  That's why many feel they are the best team in the NFL this season because they have no weaknesses.  But there is a chink in their armor now with WR Devante Adams out for this game with a hamstring injury.  He has 60 receptions for 789 yards and a league-high 14 TD this season.  The Rams are much easier to defend without having to worry about Adams.  Puka Nacua also had to leave the game last week with an injury late but came back in, and he may still be feeling the affects especially on this short week.

It's late in the season and Sam Darnold is regressing again.  The Seahawks managed just 18 points last week against the Colts in similar conditions.  They kicked six field goals and didn't reach the end zone.  In their previous home game, they beat the Vikings 26-0 but that was all defense.  They managed just 219 total yards against the Vikings that week.  

Darnold threw 4 interceptions and led the Seahawks to just 19 points in that first meeting with the Rams.  It saw just 40 combined points, again in perfect weather in Los Angeles.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I love backing UNDERS in the 2nd meeting in these division games because of it.  The conditions will be much worse for the rematch, and both defenses are well ahead of both offenses right now.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Pelicans OVER 234

The Pelicans are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 241 points at the end of regulation in seven of those 10 games.  The Pelicans rank 12th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 home games going for 241 or more combined points in seven of their last eight home games.  This total of 234 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home.

The Rockets actually rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive rating and can basically name their number against the Pelicans tonight.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 232 or more combined points in four of those five meetings, and 239 or more in three of the last four.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +14.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the San Antonio Spurs.  After upsetting both the Lakers in the quarterfinals and the Thunder in the semifinals of the NBA Cup, the Spurs blew a 4th quarter lead and fell short in the championship game in a 124-113 loss to the New York Knicks in Las Vegas.

The Spurs will be flat as a pancake tonight in their first game back from that trip to Las Vegas which could only have been a distraction.  They could care less about beating Washington, and they would need to be fully focused to win this game by 15 or more points, which is what it's going to take to beat us.

Washington is coming off two impressive games in a row.  The Wizards blew a late lead in a 130-126 home loss to Cleveland as 15.5-point dogs, then bounced back with a 108-89 road win at Indiana as 10-point dogs.  There's reason to believe they will keep playing solid basketball tonight, not the least of which is the fact that they are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off.

But the biggest reason to be excited about the Wizards is the healthy return of their best player in C Alex Sarr (19.9 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.0 BPG) to the lineup for this one.  Sarr last played on November 28th.  They have been much more competitive with him in the lineup than without him.  Sarr, McColum (18.9 PPG, 40.3% 3-pointers), George (14.9 PPG, 43.9% 3-pointers) and Johnson (11.2 PPG, 39.8% 3-pointers) give the Wizards a solid nucleus when healthy.  Bub Carrington (8.8 PPG, 4.4 APG) and Marvin Bagley (9.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG) are also key contributors who are healthy right now.  Bet the Wizards Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +10

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall to be one of the best covering teams in the NBA over the last month.  They have gotten healthy and they are proving they have the offense to play with almost anyone.

I think this is a massive hangover spot for the Houston Rockets.  They put a lot into their last game against the Denver Nuggets but lost 128-125 (OT).  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice as they gave up a FT on a dead ball foul in the final seconds to go to OT.

The last three road games for the Rockets have been concerning as they have lout outright as favorites in all three.  They lost that game as 1-point favorites at Denver, they lost 122-109 as 6.5-point favorites at Dallas and lost 133-125 as 11-point favorites at Utah.  Asking them to win by 11-plus points to beat us tonight is asking too much.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers +5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the New York Knicks.  They just won their first trophy of any kind since 1973 by taking down the NBA Cup with a comeback win over the San Antonio Spurs in Las Vegas.  You can only imagine the kind of celebrating they did Tuesday night in Vegas, and now they have to travel to Indiana two days later still hungover.

It looks as if head coach Mike Brown is likely to rest almost everyone for this game.  Towns (22.1 PPG, 11.8 RPG), Anunoby (16.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG) and Hart (12.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.9 APG) have all been downgraded to questionable for this game.  Getting downgraded to questionable is more like doubtful, while being upgraded to questionable is almost like probable.

The Pacers have quietly gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They would love nothing more than to beat the NBA Cup champs, and they will be inspired to do so.  Their task gets much easier with all of these guys out for the Knicks as McBride and Shamet are both out already, so they will likely be without 6 key contributors as Mitchell Robinson is downgraded to questionable as well.  This version of the Pacers is better than the version of the Knicks that will be on the court for this one.  Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* Louisiana/Delaware Ventures Bowl ANNIHILATOR on OVER 61.5

Delaware is a dead nuts OVER team with a very good, pass-happy offense that plays fast and a terrible defense.  The Blue Hens are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 63 or more combined points four times.  This total of 61.5 is too short for a bowl game involving Delaware.

Louisiana is 5-0 OVER in its last five games overall.  The Rajin Cajun's have a very good rushing attack on offense that will give Delaware problems.  It's a Delaware defense that recently allowed 255 rushing yards to Jacksonville State, 282 to Liberty and 263 to Wake Forest.  The Blue Hens rank 110th in the country allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season.

Louisiana ranks 108th in the country allowing 6.0 yards per play.  Most concerning is the fact that the Rajin' Cajuns just allowed 516 total yards to Louisiana-Monroe in their season finale.  ULM is one of the worst offensive teams in the country, ranking 120th in total offense and 130th in scoring this season.

You can just imagine what this high-powered Delaware offense is going to do to this suspect Louisiana defense tonight.  The Blue Hens rank 26th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.2 seconds.  QB Nick Minicuccci has thrown for 3,495 yards and 22 TD while also rushing for 10 scores.  They are coming off a 61-31 home win over UTEP for 92 combined points to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible.

Louisiana has scored at least 30 points in four consecutive games to close out the season during its current 4-game winning streak to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible.  So both teams are riding their offense to the finish, and both teams will ride their offense in this bowl game.  Both teams should get into the 30's in this one.  Bet the OVER in the Ventures Bowl Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Bulls OVER 241.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  The face the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, who rank 9th in pace and 10th in offensive rating and should hang a big number on the Bulls tonight.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Bulls and Cavaliers with 248 or more combined points in all four meetings.  They have combined for 250, 248, 256 and 270 points in those four meetings.  This total of 241.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oakland/Northern Kentucky OVER 163

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 28th in adjusted tempo, 78th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense.  Oakland is 8-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 164 or more combined points in seven of their 10 lined games.

Northern Kentucky also profiles as an OVER team ranking 89th in adjusted tempo.  The Norse are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall finishing with 175 combined points with Cleveland State and 156 in their other two games.

Oakland games are averaging 169.4 combined points per game this season.  Northern Kentucky games are averaging 159.6 combined points per game.  Neither team has even played an OT game this season.  This total of 163 is too short for a game involving these two teams, especially with it expected to be close and fouls likely to factor in late.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.