20* Braves/Padres ESPN 2 No-Brainer on San Diego -111

The Atlanta Braves are out of gas.  They have been playing playoff games for weeks now just to try to get in.  And they had to play all their best players in their double-header against the Mets on Monday because they lost Game 1, making Game 2 a must-win.

The Braves looked gassed at least at the plate last night in their 3-0 loss to the Padres.  It won't get any easier for this short-handed, weak lineup going up against Joe Musgrove tonight in Game 2.

Musgrove has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts, including 2 earned runs or fewer in 10 of them.  He has allowed a total of 2 earned runs and 13 base runners in 18 1/3 innings with 23 K's in his last three starts coming in.  Musgrove has allowed 2 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Braves as well.  Plus, he is backed by one of the best bullpens in the league.

No question Max Fried has been an ace for the Braves this season.  He he struggled in his lone start against San Diego, allowing 3 earned runs and 12 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 3-1 loss to the Padres on May 17th.  He was fortunate to only give up 3 earned runs.  Atlanta has scored 3 runs or fewer in five of its last six games with one of the worst offenses in baseball.  Bet the Padres in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* MLB 2024 Postseason Opener on San Diego Padres -145

This is a terrible spot for the Atlanta Braves.  They just had to play a double-header yesterday with the New York Mets to determine their postseason fate.  Because they lost Game 1, they had to win Game 2 to make the playoffs.  They were forced to play their regulars and use all their best arms available for both games.

I think the Braves take a sigh of relief here, plus they won't have much left in the tank for the Padres in Game 1.  They also have to travel from Atlanta to San Diego overnight.  This is a Braves team that has been playing must-win games for a couple weeks now and they have to be out of gas, not to mention they are dealing with injuries to many of their top players in Acuna Jr, Riley and Sale who are all out.

Michael King has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season for the Padres.  He is 13-9 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 30 starts with 201 K's in 173 2/3 innings.  King has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 13 of his last 14 starts, and 3 earned runs in the other.  

San Diego has the best record in all of baseball since the All-Star Break going 43-20 in their last 63 games.  They are primed to make a World Series run, starting with Game 1 tonight.  Bet the Padres in Game 1 Tuesday.

15* Seahawks/Lions ABC ANNIHILATOR Detroit -4

The Detroit Lions will be max motivated tonight.  They want revenge from a 37-31 (OT) loss to the Seahawks in 2023 and a 48-45 loss in 2022.  In fact, they have lost six straight to the Seahawks in this series.  They are also trailing the 3-0 Seahawks in the NFC standings, plus they have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for a win here tonight.

The Seahawks have played the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point.  They beat the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix 26-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 1.  They needed OT to beat the Patriots 23-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 2.  Then they had to fly all the way back to Seattle and took advantage of a short-handed Dolphins team in a 24-3 victory as 4-point favorites.  The Dolphins were starting Skyler Thompson at QB, and he got hurt and they were down to third-stringer Tim Boyle in the second half.

To say this will be a step up in class for the Seahawks would be a massive understatement.  Now they face a Detroit Lions team with elite numbers thus far and should be 3-0 if not for going 1-for-7 in the red zone in an upset loss to the Bucs.  The Lions rank 4th in total offense at 399.7 yards per game and 10th in total defense at 293.3 yards per game.  Their improvement on defense this season is the reason the Lions are a real Super Bowl contender.

The Seahawks have a solid offense this season, but their offensive line is a weakness and this Detroit pass rush led by Aidan Hutchinson will be a problem for them.  Seattle has a defensive-minded head coach in Mike McDonald and a solid defense, but this is a defense that is missing several key players that the Lions will exploit, especially up the middle trying to stop the run.  

Seattle will be without starting DE Leonard Williams, starting WLB Uchenna Nwoso and starting SLB Boye Mafe.  They are also without two key depth pieces in NT Cameron Young and DE Byron Murhpy II.  I think Detroit will wear them down with their running game, which has produced 163 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry thus far this season.  Bet the Lions Monday.

20* Bills/Ravens NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore ML -140

I think the Bills and Ravens are two pretty equal teams despite their records.  Buffalo is 3-0 while Baltimore is 1-2.  And those records are the reason we are getting the Ravens at a discount, and also the reason the Ravens will be the much more motivated team knowing they can't afford to fall to 1-3 and three games behind the Bills with a loss.

The Bills are 3-0 while benefitting from a very easy schedule.  They needed a double-digit comeback to beat the best team they played in Arizona 34-28 as 7-point favorites in Week 1.  They took advantage of three interceptions by Tagovailoa and an injury to him in their 31-10 win in Week 2.  And last week they took advantage of a banged up Jaguars team that played man-to-man defense the entire game against Josh Allen, who owns man-to-man defense. This will be far and away the toughest challenge of the season for the Bills, plus they are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.

The Ravens have played the much tougher schedule and could easily be 3-0.  They lost 27-20 to the Chiefs in Week 1 despite outgaining them 452 to 353.  They lost 26-23 to the Raiders despite outgaining them 383 to 260 in Week 2.  And last week they showed that sense of urgency that they will show today as well, jumping on the Cowboys 28-6 going into the 4th quarter before calling off the dogs.  That was a misleading 28-25 final as the Cowboys scored three times in garbage time.  The Ravens had 456 total yards on the Cowboys.

The Ravens have elite numbers, ranking 1st in total offense at 430.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  They allow 341.7 yards per game and that number would be much loser if not for those yards given up to the Cowboys in garbage time.  What makes these numbers that much more impressive is that they have faced the much tougher schedule.  Buffalo is only outgaining teams by 42 yards per game against a much softer schedule.

The Ravens will play more zone coverage and make life tougher on Allen and this limited Buffalo offense.  The Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL, and the weakness of the Bills is up the middle stopping the run.  They are wtihout their two best LB's in Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano.  They are also without CB Taron Johnson.  The Bills haven't faced a rushing offense nearly this potent this season, so I like the matchup for the Ravens a lot in this one.

Lamar Jackson is 23-7 ATS as a favorite of -3 or less or an underdog in his career.  Bet the Ravens on the Money Line Sunday night.

15* Browns/Raiders AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Las Vegas ML -120

This is the one premium pick Sunday I likely won't get a better number on game day.  I went in on the Raiders ML -120 when I found out the injury situation for the Browns.  But since I published this pick the Raiders have gotten some bad injury news as they will be without both WR Davante Adams and DE Maxx Crosby, which are two of their best players.  That came out of nowhere.

I still think the Raiders are good enough to win this game with what they have.  The Browns have seven offensive linemen on the injury report, and OL injuries are a big reason Deshaun Watson has looked as poorly as he has.  They will be without their two starting offensive tackles in Willis and Conklin, plus TE David Njoku is out again this week as well.

Watson is completing just 57.8% of his passes while averaging 4.8 yards per attempt through three games.  They lost 33-17 to the Cowboys at home in Week 1, were fortunate to beat the Jaguars 18-13 in Week 2, and were upset 21-15 by the Giants at home in Week 3.  Those performances against the Giants and Jaguars don't look as good now with those teams a combined 1-5, and the Cowboys are in rough shape this season as well.  Those are three of the worst defenses in the NFL the Browns got to face, and the Browns still rank just 31st in total offense at 248.0 yards per game and 31st at 4.1 yards per play.

The Raiders had every opportunity to beat the Chargers in a 16-10 home loss in Week 1.  They pulled off the 26-23 upset at Baltimore as 8.5-point dogs in Week 2, and that win has aged very well.  Last week they suffered an obvious letdown coming back home from that Baltimore win.  They lost 36-22 to the Carolina Panthers, who were rejuvenated with Andy Dalton at QB.

Las Vegas head coach Antonio Pierce called out his players for making 'business decisions' in that loss to the Panthers.  His players love him, and I expect them to respond in a big way here Sunday.  Despite the injuries, I think the Raiders are still good enough to find a way to win this game against the Browns, whose injury situation may be even worse.  DE Myles Garrett isn't right and is playing through injury as well.  Bet the Raiders on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Commanders/Cardinals NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48.5

I gave out the OVER 48.5 on Sunday night.  I was on the Commanders/Bengals OVER 47 in the Monday Night Football game and I anticipated a high-scoring game and that this total would open higher. That's what we got with 71 combined points between the Bengals and Commanders.  It has indeed opened higher, but it's still not high enough.  I find value in the OVER at least up to the key number of 51.

The Commanders and Cardinals may very well have the two worst defenses in the NFL.  The Commanders rank 29th in scoring defense, 29th in total defense and 31st in yards per play allowed despite facing two of the worst offenses in the Giants and Bucs.  They are allowing 29.3 points per game, 377.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.  They are also dealing with a ton of injuries defensively and have one of the worst secondary's in the NFL.

The Cardinals allowed 34 points to the Bills in their opener.  They had the fortune of playing the Rams who were decimated by injuries on offense in Week 2 and won 41-10.  The Lions moved it up and down the field on them last week with 373 total yards including 187 rushing.  They went ground and pound and just controlled the game with their running game and defense, which is one of the best in the NFL this season.

The Cardinals have faced two elite defenses in the Bills and Lions, and the one game against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Rams they hung 41 points.  They will come close to hanging that on the Commanders as well.  Kyler Murray looks like his old electric self, using his legs a lot more this season to make plays, and he finally has a No. 1 target in Marvin Harrison Jr. who has scored 3 TD in his last two games.  James Conner will have a big game in this one on the ground as well.

This Washington offense has been on fire with Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels at quarterback.  They became the first team in NFL history to not punt and or turn the ball over once in two consecutive games.  They haven't punted since there was 11 minutes left in the 4th quarter in Week 1 against the Bucs.

In fact, the Commanders have put together 14 straight scoring drives since Week 1 when you throw out them kneeling before the half against the Bengals, who also didn't punt last week.  Daniels went 21-of-23 passing for 254 yards and 2 TD against the Bengals, while also rushing for 39 yards and a score.  He is now completing 80.3% of his passes on the season while also rushing for 171 yards and three scores.

This game has shootout written all over it with two of the best offenses in the NFL up against two of the worst defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Cubs UNDER 7

The wind has been blowing in at Wrigley Field the last two days and we have seen a pair of 1-0 and 3-0 pitcher's duels as a result.  It will be more of the same today with the forecast calling for 20 MPH winds blowing in from left-center.

The Reds have scored a total of 3 runs in their last five games for an average of 0.6 runs per game.  They have let go of the rope.  Hunter Greene is 9-5 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 25 starts for the Reds this season and should hold the Cubs in check as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Rays -110

The Tampa Bay Rays have taken the first two games of this series with the Boston Red Sox to get to 80-81 on the season and one win away from .500.  Trust me, it means a lot to these players to finish .500 rather than 80-82, and the Rays will be the ones motivated to get there.

The Red Sox have really let go of the rope scoring a total of 4 runs in their last three games.  They will be sending out Quinn Priester, who is 5-9 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 94 2/3 innings in his career, including 2-6 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 44 2/3 innings this season.

The Rays have the clear advantage on the mound behind Ryan Pepiot, who is 8-7 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  Pepiot has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 13 starts coming in.  He allowed one earned run in 6 innings with 12 K's in his last start against Boston on September 18th.  Bet the Rays Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears PK

This is the ultimate 'buy low, sell high' spot.  The Chicago Bears are coming off two consecutive losses on the road to the Texans by 6 and the Colts by 5.  But now they are back home and highly motivated for a victory Sunday afternoon.

The Los Angeles Rams are coming off their shocking 14-point comeback win at home over the San Francisco 49ers as 7-point underdogs.  Off a win against their biggest rivals, this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Rams.

Both results last week were misleading which is providing us line value this week on the Bears as well.  The Bears outgained the Colts 395 to 306 but lost 21-16.  Caleb Willams threw for 363 yards and 2 TD to show what he is capable of, and I think he's in line for his best game of the season this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Rams.

The Rams beat the 49ers 27-24 despite getting outgained 425 to 296 by San Francisco.  They had no business winning that game.  This came a week after losing 41-10 at Arizona while getting outgained 489 to 245 by the Cardinals.

Simply put, the Rams have the worst injury situation in the NFL right now.  They are without their two best weapons in Kupp and Nacua.  Their offensive line is banged up, and their defense is banged up and terrible as it is.  The Rams rank dead last in the NFL allowing 425.7 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play this season.

The Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 8th allowing 286.7 yards per game and 9th allowing 5.1 yards per play.  They are 10th in scoring defense at 19.0 points per game as well.  They have the better defense, are the much healthier team, and have home-field advantage, so this game should not be PK.

I locked this line in at PK Sunday night assuming the Bears would take money and they have since with the line up to -3 as of this writing.  I would still play it up to -3.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* Vikings/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay ML -125

The Green Bay Packers are likely to get Jordan Love back at QB this week.  If they do, they won't be only -125 favorites on the Money Line, and they will likely be -3 or higher on the spread.  I grabbed this number Sunday night with the anticipation that Love would be back this week.

Either way, the Packers look like a juggernaut this season.  Their offense is loaded and their defense is one of the most improved in the NFL.  They beat the Colts 16-10 in Week 2 with Malik Willis at quarterback.  They beat Tennessee 30-14 in Week 3 as Willis got revenge on his former team.  That was a desperate Titans team looking to avoid an 0-3 start, so it was mighty impressive.

There will be no letdown spot for the Packers here considering they are 2-1 and actually trailing the 3-0 Minnesota Vikings in the division.  And now it's time to 'sell high' on the Vikings, who are getting a lot of hype due to this 3-0 start with a road win over the Giants, and home wins over both the Vikings and Texans.

The Vikings are 3-0 despite only outgaining opponents by 19 yards per game.  I don't think they are as good as their record.  To compare, the Packers are outgaining opponents by 63 yards per game.  Minnesota has had a lot of turnover luck thus far and I don't think it continues this week.  This will be their toughest test of the season against a Packers team that has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  Bet the Packers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Bucs UNDER 46

Injuries to this Philadelphia offense are a big reason I'm on the UNDER 46 here.  I grabbed this number Sunday night anticipating it would get bet down, and we got a great number here because of it.  The total is down to 42.5 and 43 in most places as of this writing Saturday morning.

The Eagles were already without AJ Brown last week.  Then they lost DeVonta Smith and RT Lane Johnson to concussions in an ugly 15-12 win at New Orleans.  They are going to have to get used to trying to win ugly with their running game until they get healthy on offense again.  They will be without Smith this week, and Brown and Johnson are both questionable.

The Bucs have injury problems of their own on offense with WR Jalen McMillan out for this one, and RB Bucky Irving and RT Luke Goedeke questionable.  The Bucs rank 26th in total offense at 277 yards per game.  The Broncos beat them 26-7 last week as their offense was completely held in check.  Now they'll be going up against an improved Philadelphia defense that is hungry for revenge after losing 32-9 to the Bucs in the playoffs last year.  It's a Philadelphia defense that held the Saints to 12 points last week, a Saints offense that was the best in the NFL through two weeks.

The Bucs were without Vita Vea last week and he's arguably their most important defensive player.  Vea is expected to be back this week, and that's huge going up against this one-dimensional Philadelphia rushing attack.  He is one of the best run-stuffers in the NFL.  This is a Tampa Bay defense that held the Lions to 16 points and the Commanders to 20 points, and those are two of the best offenses in the NFL.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Saints/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -1

The Saints were rolling to a 2-0 start with blowout wins over the Cowboys and Panthers.  Everything was looking up for this team, and then a 15-12 home loss to the short-handed Philadelphia Eagles happened last week.  The Saints suffered a ton of key injuries in that loss to boot, and those injuries are a big reason I am fading them today.

The Saints were fortunate to even be in that game against the Eagles, who outgained them 460 to 219, or by 241 total yards.  Giving up 460 yards to the Eagles is a terrible look when you consider they were without star WR AJ Brown, and they lost both WR DeVonta Smith and LT Lane Johnson to concussions.  The Saints basically just needed to stop TE Dallas Goedert on the final drive to seal the win, and they couldn't do it.

The Saints lost two starting offensive linemen in that game last week.  C Erik McCoy was far and away their best offensive lineman, and now he is on IR.  G Cesar Ruiz is out as well.  Things are so bad that the Saints brought in five offensive linemen earlier this week to work out.

The bad injury news for the Saints didn't stop there.  Now their two best playmakers on offense in RB Alvin Kamara and WR Chris Olave are questionable to play Sunday.  Fellow starting WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. is questionable, and backup WR A.J. Perry is out.  Defensively, MLB Demario Davis is out and he hasn't missed a start in 13 years.  He is the leader of their defense and a big blow on that side of the football.

The Atlanta Falcons are remarkably healthy through three games with their main loss being RT Kaleb McGary.  They are also highly motivated for a win this week considering they are trailing the Saints by one game in the NFC South and don't want to fall two games back.  I also like the improvements I've seen from this team since their 18-12 Week 1 home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Falcons gutted out a 22-21 win at Philadelphia in Week 2 with a huge game-winning drive from Kirk Cousins in the final seconds.  Cousins looked lost in Week 1 against a very good Pittsburgh defense, but he has since looked better each week and this offense has a lot of confidence in him.

Cousins and the Falcons deserved better in a 22-17 home loss to the defending champion Chiefs as 3-point underdogs in Week 3.  The refs missed a pass interference call in the end zone that would have eventually given the Falcons a late lead.  They showed they could play with the defending champs, and while this would usually be the type of loss that could beat a team twice, it won't be this week given the situation.  

The Falcons have to quickly refocus with a division opponent coming to town in the Saints, who they are trailing in the standings.  I expect the Falcons to handle their business against the short-handed Saints in this one.  I grabbed Atlanta -1 as soon as I saw the injury news for the Saints, and I would still play them up to -3.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* Arizona/Utah ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -11

There's no game atmosphere quite like Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on a Saturday night.  The Utah Utes have one of the best home-field advantages in the country as it is, and that is magnified for night games.  Utah is 33-2 SU in its last 35 home games.

That's why I'm not worried about Utah having a letdown following their big 22-19 win at Oklahoma State last week.  The Cowboys trailed 22-3 with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  They managed to score two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions in the final 6 minutes to make the final look closer than it really was.  They were outgained 456 to 285 by Utah, or by 171 total yards.  And keep in mind their offense was held to just over 100 yards before those final two TD drives.

Arizona is a team that profiles similar to Oklahoma State.  The Wildcats play no defense and rely heavily on their passing attack to move the football.  They will get mauled at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, and we've already seen this happen to them in their lone road game this season against a team that profiles similar to Utah.

Arizona lost 31-7 at Kansas State last time out.  The Wildcats gave up 235 rushing yards to Kansas State.  I'm not worried that the Utes will be playing backup QB Isaac Wilson.  He is a dual-threat who threw for 207 yards and a TD, while also rushing for 41 yards on six carries while handling the atmosphere at Oklahoma State very well last week.  Bernard rushed for 182 yards as the Utes rushed for 249 as a team in that game.  They will get whatever they want on the ground against Arizona.

Arizona wasn't sharp in the two games prior to Kansas State, either.  The Wildcats only beat New Mexico 61-39 as 28-point favorites.  They gave up 470 total yards to the Lobos, who were playing their first game with a new head coach.  In their 2nd game, they barely beat Northern Arizona 22-10 as 37-point favorites.  They actually trailed 10-6 at halftime in that contest.  There's just not a lot to like about this Arizona team after losing many of their players and their head coach to Washington.  Brent Brennan may be in over his head this season, and he certainly is this week.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* Washington State/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 64

Two of the best offenses in the country go up against two of the worst defenses in the country Saturday night when Washington State visits Boise State.  Washington State wants to play fast ranking 15th in the country in seconds per play.  Boise ranks 41st in the same category and plays faster than average as well.

Boise State is averaging 48.7 points per game, 543 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play ranking in the Top 10 in the country in all three categories.  The Broncos rank 3rd in the country in rushing at 311.3 yards per game.  The Broncos should get what they want against a Washington State defense that ranks 128th in the country allowing 470.8 yards per game along with 6.1 yards per play.

Washington State ranks 10th in the country at 515.2 yards per game while averaging 7.5 yards per play.  They have a balanced attack with 225 rushing yards per game and 291 passing yards per game.  They'll be up against a Boise State defense that allowed 45 points to Georgia Southern and 37 points to Oregon.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no chance of precipitation in Boise Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Padres/DBacks NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 36-22 in their last 58 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 273 runs in their last 43 games for an average of 6.3 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Diamondbacks are capable of covering this total on their own against Randy Vasquez, who is 4-7 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  The Padres probably won't be throwing their best bullpen arms in this one as they threw them last night and want to get them some rest before having to play in the wild card.

Eduardo Rodriquez has been a gas can for the Diamondbacks, going 3-4 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He has allowed 28 earned runs and 9 homers in 45 1/3 innings.  The Padres are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season and their offense has been at their best on the road.

The OVER is 39-15-2 in Diamondbacks last 56 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 40 of them.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 10 or more combined runs in six of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +24

What more does Michigan State have to do to get some respect? The Spartans are 3-1 SU this season including a 27-24 road win at Maryland as 8.5-point dogs.  They dominated that game outgaining the Terrapins 484 to 339, or by 145 total yards.

In their lone loss this season, Michigan State outgained Boston College 368 to 292, but they were +3 in turnovers which was the difference in their 23-19 defeat as 5-point road dogs.  That's a Boston College team that nearly upset Missouri in a 27-21 road loss and did upset Florida State 28-13 as 16.5-point dogs.

Ohio State is getting too much respect for three blowout wins against overmatched opponents.  The Buckeyes have faced the 168th-ranked schedule in the country.  Their three wins have come against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall and all three were at home, plus they failed to cover the spread in two of them.  I think they'll get more of a test from the Spartans than they bargained for this week in their first road game.

I like the matchup for the Spartans.  They have an elite defense that ranks 14th allowing 254.8 yards per game, 29th against the run allowing 96.8 yards per game, and 14th allowing 2.6 yards per carry.  That's impressive considering they have played the much tougher schedule.  Ohio State wants to run the football, and the Spartans will offer plenty of resistance.

QB Aidan Chiles has kept this Michigan State offense afloat.  He has thrown for 891 yards while also rushing for 95 yards and three scores in four games.  I expect him to make enough plays to keep the Spartans competitive for four quarters, plus they can rely on a running game that averages 153.8 yards per game and 4.6 per carry thus far.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on UCF -13.5

I grabbed UCF -13.5 earlier in the week and it's playable up to -14.  This game has blowout written all over it.  The Bounce House is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and you know fans will be revved up with Deion Sanders and Colorado coming to town.

The Knights are loaded this season with 15 returning starters and a serious contender in the Big 12 under Gus Malzahn.  This is his best team yet, especially with the addition of QB KJ Jefferson from Arkansas.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season including an upset win at TCU.

The Knights have since had a bye week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Colorado to give them a big advantage in rest and preparation.  The Knights are loaded offensively ranking 3rd in total offense at 570.7 yards per game including 1st in rushing at 375.7 yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  They will run wild on this soft Colorado defense, and they'll be able to keep piling on the points late with this rushing attack to pull away.

This is a terrible spot for Colorado.  They are coming off a 38-31 (OT) win at Baylor in which they needed a hail mary on the final play of regulation just to get into OT.  They scored first, and Baylor fumbled going into the end zone.  The Buffaloes celebrated like they won the National Championship afterward, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank this week for UCF.

We saw Colorado step up in class on the road earlier this season at Nebraska in a 28-10 defeat.  They trailed 28-0 at halftime and it was over before it started.  I think that will be the case this week.  UCF knows they just have to stop the pass because Colorado cannot run the ball, and they have a very good pass rush.  They will be prepared to stop QB Sanders and WR Hunter in this one.  The Buffaloes just don't have much else, and their lack of depth defensively will really get tested in this one as the Knights keep pounding the rock.

Temps will be in the 80's so the Buffaloes will wear out faster.  Plus, there is a very good chance of rain, and the team that can run the football will fare better in these conditions.  This just sets up perfectly for a blowout in favor of the Knights.  Bet UCF Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/ECU OVER 53.5

Two teams that want to play fast square off when UTSA visits East Carolina Saturday.  East Carolina ranks 4th in the country in seconds per play, while UTSA ranks 11th.  This total of 53.5 is too low for two offenses that want to play this fast.

UTSA clearly has an awful defense this season.  The Miners allowed 56 points to Texas and 49 points to Texas State.  East Carolina hasn't exactly turned their yards into points yet this season, but I think they will this week with their best offensive output of the season against the soft Miners.

UTSA got their offense going last week with 45 points.  I think they will find success against a ECU defense that allowed 35 points to Liberty last week.  Plus, the Pirates just lost their best defensive player to a season-ending injury prior to that game, CB Shavon Revel Jr. who was going to be a high NFL draft pick.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan -14.5

Kent State is the worst team in college football and it's not close.  The Golden Flashes are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS this season.  They are scoring 10.2 points per game and averaging 167.5 yards per game while allowing 51.2 points per game and 607.5 yards per game.  They are getting outscored by 40.0 points per game and getting outgained by 440 yards per game.

They are beat up right now after losing 55-24 to Pittsburgh, 23-17 to St. Francis PA, 71-0 to Tennessee and 56-0 to Penn State.  They are without their top two quarterbacks in Kargman and Sherrod and are already down to their 3rd-stringer, who has completing 1-of-7 passes on the season.

Eastern Michigan is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Eagles are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS with a 28-14 win at UMass as 2.5-point dogs, a 30-9 loss at Washington as 24.5-point dogs, a 37-34 (OT) win over Jacksonville State as 2.5-point dogs, and a 36-0 win over St. Francis PA as 25.5-point favorites.

So these teams already have a common opponent in St. Francis PA.  Eastern Michigan beat them 36-0 and held them to 154 total yards while outgaining them by 173 yards.  Kent State lost to them 23-17 while allowing 404 yards and getting outgained by 124 yards.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet Eastern Michigan Saturday.

15* Fresno State/UNLV MWC ANNIHILATOR on UNLV ML -120

This line has dropped from UNLV -4.5 all the way down to nearly a PK due to the news that QB Matt Sluka would redshirt and sit out the rest of the season.  It's too big of an adjustment when you consider UNLV's offense was limited by Sluka who was a 43% passer.

Many believe backup Hajj-Malik Williams should have been the starter from the jump as these two were in a fierce battle all the way through fall camp.  Williams threw for 8,248 yards and 58 touchdowns at Campbell prior to coming here and he is the much better passer, plus he can also get it done on the ground, tho he's not as physical a runner as Sluka.

UNLV's captain LB tweeted out 'bout time let's ride' when he heard the news that Sluka elected to sit out paving the way for Williams.  UNLV"s best receiver in Ricky White, who had 88 receptions for 1,483 yards and 8 TD last year, tweeted out that Williams would throw for 300 yards and two touchdowns in this game.  His team clearly has his back, and I believe this is one of those situations where Williams' teammates rally around him for a big performance.

UNLV has been led by its defense this season anyway.  The Rebels are one of the most improved defenses in the country allowing 13.7 points per game, 297.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  Barry Odom is a defensive-minded head coach and he finally has his players in place.  They are balling out on D this season.

Now the Rebels are fresh and ready to go coming off their bye week since upsetting Kansas 23-20 as 9-point road dogs last time out.  They are out for revenge on Fresno State after losing 31-24 to the Broncos as 10.5-point road dogs last season.  The Bulldogs had no business winning that game as the Rebels outgained them 424 to 312, or by 112 total yards.

Fresno State used a lot of energy in putting away New Mexico 38-21 on the road last week.  This was one of the most misleading final scores last week.  New Mexico outgained Fresno State 485 to 345, or by 140 total yards.  That's a very bad look allowing that many yards to New Mexico.  Their defense was on the field for 81 plays and that will carry over to this week.  I love the spot for the Rebels.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Reds/Cubs UNDER 7

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 7 ticket between the Reds and Cubs.  There are expected to be 25 MPH winds blowing in from center at Wrigley Field at the start of this game.  The Cubs won 1-0 in Game 1 yesterday and it will be a similar pitcher's duel given the forecast in Game 2.

Rhett Lowder has been impressive as a rookie for the Reds going 2-2 with a 1.40 ERA in five starts.  Kyle Hendricks has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts.  He will be good enough with the forecast to keep the Reds in check.

The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Reds last five games overall.  The UNDER is 4-2-1 in Cubs last seven games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Tigers UNDER 7.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 7.5 ticket between the White Sox and Tigers today.  Tehre will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from left-center in Detroit for this early start time game.  

The Tigers just clinched a playoff spot and will likely rest some guys, and the White Sox just can't hit with the worst offense in baseball.  Chicago is scoring 3.1 runs per game on the season.

The UNDER is 8-0-1 in White Sox last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Tigers last five games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pirates/Yankees UNDER 7

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 7 ticket between the Pirates and Yankees today.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from center at Yankee Stadium today.  Of course, it helps that both teams will be sending their respective aces to the mound today for this early start time game.

Paul Skenes is 11-3 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 22 starts this season and trying to solidify his case for Rookie of the Year.  Shutting down the New York Yankees would put a stamp on it, and he'll be motivated to do just that.

Luis Gil is 15-6 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 28 starts for the Yankees this season.  He'll shut down a Pirates lineup that has scored 4 runs or fewer in eight consecutive games, and 3 runs or fewer in seven of those eight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Oklahoma State/K-State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State -4

I grabbed K-State -4 earlier this week and it's playable all the way up to -6.5.  I love the spot for the Wildcats.  They are coming off an embarrassing, misleading 38-9 loss at BYU in a late-night game in Provo where it's very tough to win.  I had BYU +7.5 in that game and it was one of my 20* Top Plays.

But that game was a lot closer than the final score.  Kansas State settled for a couple short field goals early to keep the Cougars in it.  They scored 17 unanswered points in two minutes right before halftime to bust it open.  One was a 30-yard fumbled return TD.  Later in the 2nd half they got a 90-yard punt return TD that was one of the craziest returns you'll ever see.

Kansas State actually outgained BYU 357 to 241 for the game, or by 116 total yards.  They lost the turnover battle 3-0 and allowed that punt return TD, which was the difference.  Their defense and running game remains elite, and that will be the difference in this game Saturday.

The Wildcats rank 36th in total defense allowing 297.5 yards per game.  They face an Oklahoma State team that doesn't play defense, ranking 126th in the country allowing 461 yards per game.  You could tell this defense was going to be bad when they allowed 648 total yards to Arkansas in a very fortunate OT win where they were outgained by nearly 300 yards.

Oklahoma State is coming off a misleading 22-19 home loss to Utah and their backup QB last week.  They trailed 22-3 with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  They managed to score two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions in the final 6 minutes to make the final look closer than it really was.  They were outgained 456 to 285 by Utah, or by 171 total yards.  And keep in mind their offense was held to just over 100 yards before those final two TD drives.

Now Oklahoma State goes up against another team with a very similar profile to Utah.  They are a team that plays elite defense and runs the football.  The Cowboys are allowing 180.2 rushing yards per game to rank 103rd in the country in defending the run.  The Wildcats will run wild on them.

Offensively, the Cowboys are lost at the QB position.  Alan Bowman got benched last week before returning late in the game.  They cannot run the ball despite coming into the season with one of the best backs in the country in Ollie Gordon.  They rank 115th in rushing at 96.2 yards per game and 109th at 3.3 yards per carry.  They are a one-dimensional passing attack and the Wildcats will be ready for it.

Kansas State is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of -7 or less under current head coach Chris Kleiman.  I trust the Wildcats to respond in a big way similar to when they beat Oklahoma State 48-0 at home two years ago as 2.5-point favorites.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7

The Indiana Hoosiers are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  Curt Cignetti brought a lot of players with him from James Madison and brought in some more great recruits, and the early results are impressive.

The Hoosiers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS which would be 4-0 ATS if you bet Indiana early in Week 1.  They beat FIU 31-7 as 26-point home favorites, Western Illinois 77-3 as 45-point home favorites, UCLA 42-13 as 3.5-point road favorites and Charlotte 52-14 as 28.5-point home favorites.

That win over UCLA looks even better now after UCLA went on the road last week and only lost by 17 at LSU.  The Hoosiers are a real contender in the Big Ten, and we'll keep getting them at a discount until the oddsmakers and betting public realize it.

Maryland is a rebuilding team this season.  The Terrapins lost all of their top playmakers on offense including their all-everything QB in Tagovailoa.  They have wins over Virginia, UConn and Villanova, but when they stepped up in class they lost 27-24 as 8.5-point home favorites to Michigan State.  They were outgained 484 to 339, or by 145 yards by the Spartans.

Now the Terrapins face their toughest test of the season here on the road against Indiana, which is backed by an excited fan base and will have a bigger home-field advantage than normal because of it.  If they gave up 484 yards to an average Michigan State offense, you can imagine what this Indiana offense is going to do to them.  

The Hoosiers are averaging 50.5 points per game, 513.8 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play this season.  Their defense has been equally impressive, allowing 9.2 points per game, 199.2 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma State/Kansas State UNDER 56

One look at the recent head-to-head history between Oklahoma State and Kansas State and it's easy to see there's value on the UNDER 56 in this one.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 51 or fewer combined points in all six meetings.  It will be more of the same here.

I expect Kansas State to control this game playing from ahead.  The Wildcats are a methodical running team that relies on running the football and playing defense to win games.  They rush for 240 yards per game and only throw for 160 yards per game.  They allow just 297 yards per game on the season.

We saw Utah stymie this Oklahoma State offense last week holding them to 3 points with less than 6 minutes to play before the Cowboys scored two touchdowns with two 2-point conversions in the final six minutes for a 22-19 final.  Kansas State profiles similar to Utah and will do the same.

We saw Kansas State play a team with a similar profile to Oklahoma State earlier this season.  Kansas State beat Arizona 31-7 at home.  Arizona is known for a high-powered offense that plays little defense.  Kansas State controlled this game playing from ahead and it saw just 38 combined points.  It will be more of the same here against the Cowboys.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky +13

Note: It was announced that BC starting QB Castellanos would miss this game since I posted this pick.  The line is currently down to +8 at most places.  It's still a 25* at +7.5 or better, and a 20* at anything worse.

Boston College is overvalued for playing well against two teams that are way overrated in my opinion.  I was on the Eagles when they upset Florida State 28-13 as 16.5-point dogs and I was on them again when they took Missouri to the wire in a 27-21 defeat as 14.5-point dogs.

Florida State is lucky to not be 0-4 right now as they got a win over Cal that they didn't deserve last week.  Missouri needed OT to beat Vanderbilt at home last week.  So those two performances don't look nearly as good now.

I successfully faded the Eagles last week as they failed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 23-19 home win over Michigan State.  They had no business winning that game as they were outgained 368 to 292 by the Spartans, but they were +3 in turnovers which was the difference.

This is the ultimate flat spot for Boston College now.  They have been through the gauntlet going to the wire with Missouri and Michigan State the last two weeks, which were also two very physical games.  I question how much they have left in the tank for Western Kentucky this week.  

It's also a sandwich spot with an ACC opponent in Virginia on deck next week.  And it's fair to question how much intensity the Eagles will be playing with after playing their famous 'Red Bandana' game last week against Sparty.  They get up for that game every year for obvious reasons, and now they will come back down from it in this obvious flat spot.

Western Kentucky is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming to Alabama.  The Hilltoppers have been playing better the last two weeks since switching to Caden Veltkamp at quarterback.  He led them to their big comeback bowl win last year while throwing 5 TD passes.  He should have started from the jump, and he is proving it completing 73.9% of his passes with a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio since taking over as starter two games ago.

The 31-0 win over Eastern Kentucky as 19.5-point favorites and the 49-21 win at Middle Tennessee as 7-point favorites weren't that impressive despite the fact that they covered by such large margins.  It was the 26-21 win as 2.5-point dogs to Toledo last week that was impressive.  Toledo was coming off a 41-17 win at SEC foe Mississippi State, and many expected the Rockets to win the MAC this season.  

They are more than capable of hanging with a Boston College team that won't be putting their best foot forward this week.  They proven they could stop the run holding Toledo to 125 rushing yards on 42 carries for an average of 3.0 yards per carry.  And stopping the run against BC will be key as the Eagles are more of a one-dimensional running team.  Bet Western Kentucky Saturday.

20* Padres/DBacks NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -135

The Arizona Diamondbacks are tied with the New York Mets for the final two wild card spots in the National League.  They are just one game ahead of the Braves from being eliminated completely, so it's safe to say they are max motivated heading into this series.

The same cannot be said for their opponent in the San Diego Padres.  The Padres just lost two consecutive games to the Dodgers on Wednesday and Thursday, which allowed the Dodgers to clinch the NL West.  With the division title no longer attainable, the Padres are essentially locked into the No. 4 seed in the National League.  They have nothing to play for in this series, and they will be resting guys knowing they have to play on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Merrill Kelly is 5-0 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 12 starts for the Diamondbacks this season and back to full strength.  He has allowed just one earned run and 6 base runners  in 11 innings in his last two starts with 11 K's.

Yu Darvish remains on a pitch count as he works his way back from injury and will be on one again today.  He has allowed 5 homers in his last four starts.  Darvish allowed 4 earned runs and 9 hits in 5 innings in his last start against Arizona.  Bet the Diamondbacks Friday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Mets -119

The New York Mets are tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final two wild card spots, and they are just one game ahead of the Braves from missing the playoffs completely.  It's safe to say the Mets will be max motivated, and they will get their best hitter in Francisco Lindor back from injury in this series.  He's going to finish 2nd in MVP voting behind Ohtani he's been that good.

The Milwaukee Brewers are locked into the No. 3 seed with nothing to play for.  The Brewers are more concerned with getting their guys rested heading into the postseason knowing they will have to play on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The Mets have big rest, motivational and starting pitching advantages in this game to boot.  The Mets have had the last two days off since both games against the Braves were rained out on Wednesday and Thursday.  The Brewers just completed a 3-game series in Pittsburgh yesterday.

Sean Manaea is 12-5 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 31 starts for the Mets this season.  He'll be opposed by gas can Frankie Montas, who is 7-11 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 29 starts between the Reds and Brewers.  Montas allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 2 2/3 innings to the Diamondbacks in his last start.  Bet the Mets Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +180

The Los Angeles Dodgers just clinched the NL West title last night in a 7-2 win over the San Diego Padres.  They will be fat and happy and hungover today and not caring about winning this game against the pesky Colorado Rockies, who are always a tough out at home.

Cal Quantrill has put up respectable numbers this season when you factor in he pitches half of his games at Coors Field. Quantrill is 8-10 with a 4.72 ERA in 28 starts for the Rockies.  He'll be good enough tonight to give the Rockies a chance.

Simply put, the Dodgers shouldn't be close to -200 favorites today given the letdown spot after clinching the division last night.  The Rockies have scored at least 4 runs in six of their last eight games including 10 runs against the Cardinals last night.  They are motivated to make life difficult on the rival Dodgers in this series.  Bet the Rockies Friday.

15* Orioles/Twins AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

Both the Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles still have something to play for and should have all hands on deck in their lineups as a result.  The Orioles are trying to clinch the 4th seed in the wild card, while the Twins are trying to just stay alive in the wild card.

These are two potent offenses with the Orioles scoring 4.8 runs per game and the Twins 4.6 runs per game.  Both offenses should have their way against these two starting pitchers tonight.

Cade Povich has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 2-9 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 15 starts while allowing 46 earned runs and 12 homers in 74 innings.  Pablo Lopez was rocked for 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings in his last start against the Red Sox.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The OVER is 7-1-1 in Orioles last nine games overall.  The OVER is 4-1 in Twins last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* VA Tech/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +19.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Virginia Tech and 'sell high' on Miami.  Virginia Tech is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS this season, while Miami is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.  This line would have been less than 7 if it were played in Week 1, and because of results thus far it has been adjusted up way too much to 19.5 points here Friday night.

Virginia Tech had a lot of hype coming into the season about possibly being a sleeper to win the ACC after how strong them finished last season, plus the fact that they brought back 21 starters from that team.  They were upset 34-27 as 13-point favorites by Vanderbilt in the opener.  Vanderbilt went on to nearly upset Missouri, losing in OT on the road last week, so that loss doesn't look at bad now.

Last week, Virginia Tech lost 26-23 to Rutgers as 3-point home favorites.  Rutgers was coming off a bye week and had a big rest advantage.  Also, Rutgers looks like one of the most improved teams in the country this season with a 3-0 start and two other blowout victories.

Miami is getting a lot of credit for its 4-0 start this season against a very soft schedule.  The win over Florida in the opener doesn't look nearly as good now after Texas A&M crushed Florida as well.  They blew out Ball State and Florida A&M, and last week they were trailing 15-14 near halftime to USF before outscoring them 36-0 the rest of the way.  They were aided by an injury to USF QB Brown in the 2H, who means everything to their team.  

I'll gladly 'sell high' on the hype this week as this is the type of game Miami has had a letdown at home in the past under Mario Cristobal.  The Hurricanes lost outright as 20-point home favorites to Georgia Tech last year and needed OT to beat Virginia as 18-point favorites.  I think they'll get a much bigger fight than they bargained for in this one.  Each of the last four meetings were decided by 12 points or less, and VA Tech has only lost one if its last eight meetings with Miami by more than 18 points.  Bet Virginia Tech Friday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Royals/Braves UNDER 7.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 7.5 ticket between the Royals and Braves today.  There will be 15 MPH winds blowing in from center at game time, and I trust both these starting pitchers to shut the opposition down.

Max Fried is 10-10 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 28 starts for the Braves this season.  Fried has allowed just 5 earned runs in 25 innings in his last four starts coming in.  He'll be opposed by Brady Singer, who is 9-12 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 28 starts for the Royals this season.

The Braves are a dead nuts UNDER team going 92-59-6 UNDER in all games this season.  The Royals are 85-68-4 UNDER in all games this season.  The Royals have scored 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games, including one run or fewer five times.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Guardians -118

The Cleveland Guardians still have something to play for trailing the Yankees by one game for the No. 1 seed in the American League.  They have already clinched a first-round bye so they will get to rest after this weekend, so they aren't concerned with resting now given what's at stake.

The Houston Astros have nothing to play for.  They have clinched the AL West and will want to rest their guys considering they will have to play on Tuesday or Wednesday in the wild card round.  They are locked into the No. 3 seed.  They are already resting their best hitter in Yordan Alvarez, and more may follow him to the bench for this series.

Joye Cantillo has been impressive in his last three starts, allowing just 2 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings with 22 K's.  He will shut down this short-handed Astros lineup tonight.  Bet the Guardians Friday.

15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Tigers UNDER 7.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 7.5 ticket between the White Sox and Tigers today.  Temps will be in the 60's with 25 MPH winds blowing in from left-center.  Runs will be very hard to come by in this one today folks.

The White Sox gave their ace Garrett Crochet an extra day of rest so he could start Game 1 of this series with the Tigers with the White Sox wanting to make life tough on their rivals, who are trying to clinch a playoff berth.

These are two of the worst offenses in baseball with the White Sox scoring 3.1 runs per game this season, and the Tigers at 4.2 runs per game.  Whoever the Tigers send out there will be able to shut down this weak Chicago lineup given the forecast.  

The UNDER is 7-0-1 in White Sox last eight games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Padres/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off tonight in this matchup between the Dodgers and Padres.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.1 runs per game while the Padres are scoring 4.7 runs per game and their numbers are even better on the road.

The Padres are capable of covering this total on their own against Walker Buehler, who is 1-6 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  He is a shell of his former self trying to come back from injury.

But the Dodgers will do plenty to contribute.  Joe Musgrove is 6-5 with a 3.95 ERA in 18 starts this season.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 21 base runners in 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers, who have owned him.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Giants NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 44

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off Thursday night in this matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants.  Both offenses should have plenty of success in this one to get up and OVER 44 combined points, which is a very key number for NFL totals and I'm glad we got this one early.

The OVER is 3-0 in Dallas' three games this season.  They played in a 33-17 shootout with the Browns for 50 combined points in Week 1, a 44-19 shootout with the Saints for 63 combined points in Week 2, and a 28-25 shootout with the Ravens for 53 combined points in Week 3.  It should be more of the same here.

Those are three good defenses they faced and the Cowboys managed to average 25.7 points per game against them.  But they have allowed 372.7 yards per game, 6.2 yards per play and 29.7 points per game.  They are last in the NFL against the run allowing 185.7 rushing yards per game.

The Giants have an improved offense this season with a healthy Daniel Jones and a new favorite target in Malik Nabers, who has 23 receptions for 271 yards and 3 TD.  Wandale Robinson has been a nice compliment with 15 receptions for 123 yards and a score.  And Devin Singletary has rushed for 197 yards and 2 TD while averaging 4.7 per carry.  The Giants should be able to get what they want on the ground, which will open up their passing game.

The Giants allowed 28 points in three quarters to the Vikings in Week 1.  In Week 2, they didn't force a single punt against the Commanders and let them score on all seven of their drives.  Last week they were much better against the Browns as their defensive line took advantage of a banged up Browns offensive line that was missing several starters.  They won't have that luxury this week.

Both defenses are dealing with significant injuries.  The Giants will be without two starting CB's in Dru Phillips and Adoree Jackson, and they already had one of the worst secondary's in the NFL.  That's bad news for them up against the Cowboys, who rank 1st in passing at 269.7 yards per game.  The Cowboys are more of a one-dimensional offense without being able to run the football, and they will be trying to move it through the air.

Dak Prescott has owned the Giants scoring 35 or more points in six of the last 10 meetings.  They have averaged 33.3 points per game in their last 10 meetings.  They will do the heavy lifting for us, but the Giants should be able to keep up that is going to be without DT Jordan Phillips, S Marquese Bell and CB Caelen Carson.  They were already without CB DaRon Bland who has been on IR since the opener.  These are two horrid secondary's right now that will get exposed.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Army/Temple ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 45.5

For starters, games involving a service academy where both teams are on a short week are 14-3 OVER since 2018.  This trend makes sense because the opponent has less time to prepare for their triple-option and they aren't ready for it.  These games always tend to be more shootouts compared to these low totals for these service academy games.

Army is a wagon on offense this season behind one of the best triple-option QB's in program history in Bryson Dailey, who has rushed for 340 yards and 5 TD while throwing for 186 yards and 3 TD while averaging 9 yards per attempt.  He leads an Army offense that ranks 2nd in the country at 356 rushing yards per game.

That makes this a great matchup for this Army offense up against this Temple defense that allows 221.8 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry, ranking 124th in the country against the run.  Temple lost 38-11 to Navy three weeks ago and allowed 297 rushing yards to the Midshipmen.

But the biggest reason I'm on the OVER is the improvement of the Temple offense once they switched QB's to Evan Simon two games ago.  Simon is completing 65.4% of his passes with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 53 yards and a score.  He threw 5 touchdown passes in a 45-29 win over Utah State last week.  Simon and this Temple offense should be able to answer when Army scores almost every possession.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Padres/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego +123

The San Diego Padres have been the best team in baseball since the All-Star Break.  Don't look now but they have climbed within two games of the Dodgers for the NL West title.  Going 8-2 in their last 10 meetings this season gives them the tiebreaker, and they are out for blood now after taking Game 1 of this series last night.

Dylan Cease has fired 14 1/3 shutout innings in his last two starts coming in.  Cease has allowed just 3 earned runs without a homer in 15 2/3 innings with 24 K's in his last three starts against the Dodgers for a 1.72 ERA.

Jack Flaherty has been disappointing since the Dodgers traded for him.  Flaherty has allowed 7 earned runs and 16 base runners in 9 innings in his last two starts coming in.  He has allowed 10 earned runs, 2 homers and 17 base runners in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Padres as well.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Padres Wednesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 35-21 in their last 56 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 262 runs in their last 41 games for an average of 6.4 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Diamondbacks are capable of covering this total on their own against rookie Mason Black, who is 1-4 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in seven starts for the Giants this season.  He has allowed 22 earned runs and 7 homers in 33 2/3 innings.

Zac Gallen hasn't been nearly as dominant this season and hasn't made it pas the 5th inning in six of his last eight starts.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts coming in.  Gallen has also allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 16 innings in his last three starts against the Giants.

The OVER is 38-14-2 in Diamondbacks last 54 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 39 of them.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings with 9 or more combined runs in six of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Guardians UNDER 8

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Reds and Guardians, including 4-0 in the last four meetings with 8 or fewer combined runs in all four.  It will be more of the same today with these two underrated starting pitchers.

The Guardians have clinched a bye already and have nothing to play for, and their manager has already said guys will rest here down the stretch.  That means their lineup is going to be a lot weaker.

Cincinnati's Jakob Junis should shut them down.  He has been a real bright spot for them this season, allowing just 3 earned runs, one homer and 12 base runners in 24 innings for a 1.13 ERA in his five starts this season.

Joey Cantillo has been real sharp for the Guardians down the stretch, allowing just 2 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings with 22 K's in his last three starts.  Both starters will shut down the opposition tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds +130

The Guardians have clinched a bye already and have nothing to play for, and their manager has already said guys will rest here down the stretch.  That means their lineup is going to be a lot weaker.

Cincinnati's Jakob Junis should shut them down.  He has been a real bright spot for them this season, allowing just 3 earned runs, one homer and 12 base runners in 24 innings for a 1.13 ERA in his five starts this season.

Joey Cantillo is 2-3 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in seven starts and one relief appearance for the Guardians.  He should not be this big of a favorite today, especially with the Guardians having nothing to play for.  Bet the Reds Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +143

The Milwaukee Brewers have nothing to play for.  They are essentially locked in to the No. 3 seed in the National League trailing the Phillies and Dodgers by 2.5 and 3 games respectively with five games to go.  They aren't going to catch either and they know it.

Given the circumstances, the Brewers have no business being this big of a favorite on the road over the Pirates.  I'll gladly fade the overrated Freddy Peralta, who has allowed 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 20 base runners in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Pittsburgh.

Luis Ortiz is one of the most underrated starters in baseball and actually has better numbers than Peralta.  Ortiz is 6-6 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 14 starts and 22 relief appearances this season.  Ortiz has allowed just 3 earned runs and zero homers in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Brewers.  Bet the Pirates Wednesday.

25* AL West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Mariners -130

The Houston Astros just clinched the AL West with a 4-3 win over the Mariners yesterday.  They celebrated hard, and now they have to come back and play the only afternoon game in MLB today.  They will be hungover and not ready to play this game.  They also have nothing to play for now as they have been locked into the No. 3 seed.

The Mariners still have a lot to play for.  They are 2.5 games back of both the Tigers and Royals in the AL wild card. They would likely need to win out to get in, but they still have a shot.  And they have the advantage on the mound this afternoon.

George Kirby is 13-11 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 32 starts this season.  Kirby has owned the Astros this season, allowing 3 earned runs in 18 innings for a 1.50 ERA in three starts against them in 2024.  The Astros are likely to rest a lot of their best players today to make his job even easier.

Yusei Kikuchi will likely be on a pitch count as they try and save him for the postseason after trading for him, and with all the injuries to their starting staff already.  Bet the Mariners Wednesday.

15* Mariners/Astros AL West Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 7

George Kirby is 13-11 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 32 starts this season.  Kirby has owned the Astros this season, allowing 3 earned runs in 18 innings for a 1.50 ERA in three starts against them in 2024.  The Astros are likely to rest a lot of their best players today to make his job even easier.

Yusei Kikuchi is 9-9 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 31 starts this season with 198 K's in 169 2/3 innings.  Kikuchi has allowed just one earned run in 11 1/3 innings with 17 K's in his last two starts against Seattle.

The Mariners rank 1st in baseball in runs allowed per game while the Astros rank 6th.  These are two of the best staffs in the game, and I trust both starters and bullpens to hold their opponents in check tonight.

The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings with 7 or fewer combined runs in eight of those nine, including 6 runs or fewer in six of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Padres/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Dodgers and Padres.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.2 runs per game while the Padres are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season.

Michael King allowed 4 homers in 5 innings of a 8-7 win over the Dodgers in his lone start at Los Angeles this season.  Landon Knack has allowed 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 13 base runners in 7 innings in his last two starts for the Dodgers.

The OVER is 8-0-1 in Dodgers last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all nine.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Diamondbacks OVER 8

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 35-20 in their last 55 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 262 runs in their last 40 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

Logan Webb is way worse on the road than at home throughout his career.  Webb has allowed at least 3 earned runs in five consecutive starts and a total of 19 earned runs in 26 innings for a 6.58 ERA during this stretch.

Brandon Pfaadt is 10-9 with a 4.66 ERA in 30 starts for the Diamondbacks this season.  Pfaadt is going through his worst stretch of the season, allowing 30 earned runs in 36 innings in his last seven starts for a 7.50 ERA during this stretch.

The OVER is 37-14-2 in Diamondbacks last 53 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 38 of them.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings with 9 or more combined runs in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +130

The Seattle Mariners have caught fire here down the stretch to give themselves a chance to make the playoffs.  They have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall to pull within 1.5 games of both the Tigers and Royals for the last two wild card spots in the American League.

While the Mariners need wins like blood right now, the Astros have a 4-game lead in the AL West and are basically a shoe-in to win the division as long as they don't lose out.  Injuries are starting to pile up as they were without their best hitter in Yordan Alvarez last night and may be cautious with him again tonight with a knee injury.

Logan Gilbert is 8-11 with a 3.24 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 31 starts for the Mariners this season.  Gilbert has allowed just 6 earned runs in 20 innings in his last three starts against the Astros for a 2.70 ERA.

No question Framber Valdez has been great down the stretch, but he does not enjoy facing the Mariners.  Valdez has allowed 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 26 innings in his last five starts against Seattle for a 6.58 ERA.  The Mariners are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings with the Astros.  Bet the Mariners Tuesday.

15* Mets/Braves NL East ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 8

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts UNDER team going 91-59-6 UNDER in all games this season.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the Braves and Mets with 7 or fewer combined runs in five of them.

Spencer Schwellenbach is 7-7 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 19 starts for the Braves this season.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 10 consecutive starts.  He pitched 7 shutout innings with 11 K's in his last start against the Mets.

Luis Severino is 11-6 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 30 starts for the Mets this season.  Severino has allowed 6 earned runs in 25 2/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.  He has held the Braves to 4 earned runs in 10 innings in two starts against them this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Red Sox/Blue Jays UNDER 8

The Boston Red Sox are banged up right now without their best hitter in Rafael Devers and possibly their best power hitter in Tyler O'Neill (31 homers), who is questionable with a back injury.  They have scored 3 runs or fewer in five of their last eight games, including 2 runs or fewer in four of them.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Blue Jays last six games overall as their offense has failed to show up here down the stretch.  They have scored a total of 10 runs in their last six games for an average of 1.7 runs per game.

Brayan Bello should shut down the Blue Jays.  He is pitching great coming in allowing 4 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts and 8 earned runs in 29 1/3 innings in his last five.  Bello pitched 8 shutout innings in a 3-0 win over the Blue Jays in his last start against them on August 28th.

Bowden Francis looks like one of the best young starters in baseball this season.  He has allowed a total of 8 earned runs in 49 innings in his last seven starts for a 1.47 ERA while lasting at least 6 innings in all seven starts.  Francis fired 7 shutout innings while allowing just one base runners in a 2-0 win over the Red Sox on August 29th in his lone start against them this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 35-19 in their last 54 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 259 runs in their last 39 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

I expect the Diamondbacks to do the heavy lifting here and are more than capable of covering this 9-run total on their own.  They should tee off on Hayden Birdsong, who is 4-5 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 14 starts this season while allowing 33 earned runs, 10 homers and 38 walks in 62 2/3 innings.  Birdsong allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 3 innings in his lone start against Arizona this season that resulted in a 6-4 loss at home.

The Giants should get their bats going today against Eduardo Rodriquez, who is 3-3 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Rodriquez has allowed 23 earned runs in 40 2/3 innings.  

The OVER is 37-14-1 in Diamondbacks last 52 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 37 of them.  Arizona and its opponents have combined for 10 runs or more in nine of its last 14 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Commanders/Bengals ABC No-Brainer on OVER 47

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  That was evident in Week 1 when they made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana in a 37-20 road loss.  Mayfield completed 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards and 4 TD in the win.

Last week, the Commanders made Daniel Jones look like a respectable QB.  The Giants scored three touchdowns on their defense, but unfortunately their kicker got hurt pregame and they failed on an XP followed by two missed 2-point conversions.  They were also forced to go for it on 4th down without a kicker.  They lost 21-18 to the Commanders.

Washington won that game despite not scoring an offensive TD.  In fact, the Commanders kicked 7 field goals, never had to punt and went 0-for-6 in the red zone.  Jayden Daniels moved the Commanders up and down the field and looks like the best rookie QB in this draft thus far.  He is completing 75.5% of his passes while also rushing for 132 yards and 2 TD through two games.

The Bengals got their offense going last week in a 26-25 loss to the Chiefs.  Now another reinforcement is on the way as WR Tee Higgins will make his season debut Monday night.  This is one of the best offenses in the NFL when Burrow, Chase and Higgins are on the field at the same time, and they should have their way with a Washington defense that will likely prove to be the worst in the NFL this season.

The Commanders are allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Bengals are also down defensively this season especially with the loss of DT DJ Reader, who is one of the best run stuffers in the league.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Jaguars/Bills ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +6

We'll 'buy low' on the 0-2 Jacksonville Jaguars and 'sell high' on the 2-0 Buffalo Bills.  NFL teams that are 0-2 facing a team that is not 0-2 in Week 3 have gone 53-32-2 ATS over their last 87 tries.  This trend just goes to show that there is serious value backing this 0-2 teams.

The Jaguars are one of my favorite 0-2 teams to back this week.  They could easily be 2-0.  Travis Etienne fumbled going in for a TD that would have given them a 24-7 lead on the Dolphins in Week 1 and put that game away.  Instead, the Dolphins scored on an 80-yard bomb to Tyreke Hill on the next play for a 14-point swing.  The Dolphins went on to win 20-17 on a last-second FG.

Last week, the Jaguars lost 18-13 at home to the Browns.  They had the ball back with a chance to tie or take the lead but took a safety after a great punt to the 1-yard line.  They actually outgained the Browns 323 to 297 for the game and probably should have won that game as well.  They are the kings of one-possession games, so getting 6 points here is a great value.

The Bills beat the Cardinals 34-28 in Week 1 and crushed the Dolphins 31-10 in Week 2.  But that win over the Dolphins was pretty misleading considering Miami actually outgained them 351 to 247.  The Dolphins just gave it away with 3 interceptions by Tua Tagovailoa, who was eventually knocked out with a concussion.

Buffalo injuries are a big reason I am fading them this week.  They are going to be without LB Terrell Bernard and CB Taron Johnson, which are two of their best defenders.  They were already without LB Matt Milano.  The Jaguars should find plenty of success against a Bills defense that on paper looks as bad as they have had in the Sean McDermott era.  And I like this improved Jacksonville defense that actually one of the best pass rushes in the NFL this season.  This game is likely decided by a FG either way.  Bet the Jaguars Monday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Lions/Cardinals OVER 50.5

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL and one of the worst defenses.  We've seen that play out the first two weeks with a 34-28 loss to the Bills and a 41-10 win over the Rams that both flew over the total.

The Detroit Lions have a much better offense than they have shown thus far.  They keep shooting themselves in the foot, and that was definitely the case last week when they managed just 16 points against the Bucs despite 463 total yards.  They went 1-of-7 in the red zone, and that's not going to happen again.  This Detroit offense will get right this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in Arizona.

Detroit ranks 2nd in total offense while Arizona ranks 7th currently.  Both teams have had a ton of success on the ground and that will be the case again this week to open up the passing game.  Arizona is rushing for 177.5 yards per game and 5.5 per carry, while Detroit is rushing for 151 yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Ravens/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 47

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games overall dating back to last season with 48 or more combined points in all four.  They went for 50 combined points against the Browns on the road in Week 1 and 63 combined points against the Saints in Week 2 at home.

The Baltimore Ravens also look like a dead nuts OVER team this season.  Their offense is loaded once again and players are used to Jeff Monken's systems in Year 2.  But their defense has taken a big step back since losing cooardinator Mike McDonald to the Seattle Seahawks.  Many believe he is the best defensive mind in the game.

The OVER is 2-0 in Ravens two games this season combining for 47 points with the Chiefs only after they had a TD called back on the final play of the game with Isaiah Likely's foot on the line.  They racked up 452 total yards on a very good Kansas City defense.  They combined for 49 points with the Raiders last week and had 383 total yards in that defeat.

It will be perfect conditions inside AT&T Stadium and the Cowboys are even more of an OVER team at home.  I think both offenses have their way against these two suspect defenses, and this total of 47 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -116

The Seattle Mariners (80-75) are still alive for a wild card spot despite struggling in the 2H of the season and blowing their AL West lead to the Astros.  They are only 1.5 games behind the Twins for the final wild card spot.  They have a lot to play for, while the Texas Rangers (73-82) have been eliminated from playoff contention and have let go of the rope, getting outscored 16-6 by the Mariners in the first two games of this series.

Bryan Woo is 8-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 20 starts for the Mariners this season.  He'll be opposed by Andrew Heaney, who is 5-14 with a 3.89 ERA in 29 starts and one relief appearance for the Rangers.  Heaney has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Mariners.

Seattle will get into this shaky Texas bullpen early.  The Mariners have absolutely owned the Rangers this season, going 9-1 in their last 10 meetings.  Bet the Mariners Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks/Brewers OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 35-18 in their last 53 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 250 runs in their last 38 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.  The Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season with a solid offense.

I expect the Diamondbacks to do the heavy lifting here and are more than capable of covering this 8.5-run total on their own.  They should tee off on Frankie Montas, who is 7-11 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 28 starts this season.  Montas has allowed 10 earned runs in 7 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Arizona.

The Brewers should get their bats going against Jordan Montgomery, who is 8-7 in spite of a 6.23 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 20 starts and four relief appearances for the Diamondbacks this season.

The OVER is 36-14-1 in Diamondbacks last 51 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 36 of them.  Arizona and its opponents have combined for 10 runs or more in eight of its last 13 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +110

The Arizona Diamondbacks are highly motivated for wins right now.  They are one game ahead of the Mets and three games ahead of the Braves sitting in the 2nd spot in the wild card with work to do to clinch a playoff spot.  They need these games like blood right now.

The same cannot be said for the Milwaukee Brewers, who just clinched the NL Central division and could let go of the rope here down the stretch with not much to play for.  They are four games behind both the Phillies and Dodgers so their chances of catching them with 7 games to go are slim to none, and they know it.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 35-18 in their last 53 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 250 runs in their last 38 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

They should tee off on Frankie Montas, who is 7-11 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 28 starts this season.  Montas has allowed 10 earned runs in 7 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Arizona.  Jordan Montgomery has only allowed 3 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Milwaukee.  Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Steelers UNDER 37.5

The Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers are both dead nuts UNDER teams.  Both are run-heavy offenses with two of the best defenses in the NFL.  The clock keeps moving with how much both teams like to run the football.

The Chargers are averaging 197.5 rushing yards per game but just 135 passing yards per game through two games.  The Steelers are averaging 260.5 total yards per game including 139 rushing and 121.5 passing.  These two offenses are setting football back years.

They can afford to be that bad on offense when you play defense like they do.  The Chargers are allowing 227.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.  The Steelers are allowing 260.5 yards per game this season.  Both defenses are pretty healthy as well.

Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert suffered an ankle injury against the Panthers last week and his status is in question.  Also, one of his top receivers in Joshua Palmer is questionable as well.  Their offense will be handcuffed even more than it already is with a hobbled Herbert.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the four games involving these two teams this season with 32, 29, 28 and 19 combined points.  This total of 37.5 is too high for a game involving these two teams.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans -1.5

The Tennessee Titans are 0-2 but should be 2-0.  That 0-2 record has them undervalued, and I like backing 0-2 teams in Week 3 against a team that isn't also 0-2 because it has been very profitable over time, going 53-32-2 ATS in the last 87 tries.

The Titans didn't allow a single offensive TD in their 24-17 loss to the Bears in Week 1 and blew a 17-3 halftime lead.  They gave up a blocked punt that was returned for a TD, and Will Levis thew an inexplicable interception that was returned for a TD.

They had another punt blocked last week against the Jets in their 24-17 home loss.  Levis also committed another inexplicable turnover, trying to lateral the ball inside the New York 5-yard line that the Jets eventually recovered.

Levis has plenty of weapons with the additions of Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard to go along with DeAndre Hopkins and Tajae Spears.  The offense will be fine once he quits making boneheaded mistakes.

But the reason I love this Titans team is their defense, which ranks 1st in the NFL allowing 206.5 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play through two games.  They added some great pieces in the offseason including shutdown corner L'Jarius Sneed.  They have an elite secondary, and Jeffery Simmons remains one of the biggest game-wreckers in the league up front.

The Packers suffered a big blow when Jordan Love got hurt in the final seconds of a 34-29 loss to the Eagles in Brazil in Week 1.  Malik Willis, who was brought in from the Titans to replace him, had to start Week 2.

It was a perfect matchup for the Packers against an Indianapolis Colts team that has now allowed over 200 rushing yards in consecutive games.  The Colts are decimated on defense, and the Eagles clearly have some problems as well.  Anthony Richardson also gifted the Packers 3 interceptions.

This will be a big step up in class for Willis, and the Titans will force him to have to try and beat them through the air instead of on the ground.  Tennessee is only allowing 92.5 rushing yards per game.  

I think this line has remained so low this week not only because the Titans are 0-2, but also because Jordan Love returned to practice on a limited basis.  It is a complete smokescreen as there's less than a 10% chance Love returns this week.  He is more likely to return in Week 4 or Week 5.  They aren't in a hurry to rush him back either after stealing one from the Colts last week.  It might be a different story if they were 0-2 instead of 1-1.

The Titans know Willis' tendencies and that will be a big advantage for them.  I love the spot with their backs against the wall here against the Packers who will be starting the worst quarterback in the NFL this week.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +7

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the 0-2 Denver Broncos and 'sell high' on the 2-0 Tampa Bay Bucs.  0-2 teams facing teams that aren't also 0-2 in Week 3 have gone 53-32-2 ATS in their last 85 tries.  I love this system for Week 3, and the Broncos fit it as good as anyone this week.

This is more a fade of the Bucs than a play on the Broncos.  This is the ultimate letdown spot for Tampa Bay.  They are going off a shocking 20-16 road win at Detroit as 7.5-point dogs.  They got their playoff revenge after getting knocked out by the Lions last year.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the 0-2 Broncos this week, and they'll fall flat on their faces.

The Bucs had no business winning that game as the Lions outgained the Bucks 463 to 216, or by 247 total yards.  But the Lions went 1-of-7 scoring TD's in the red zone, and Jared Goff had a couple awful interceptions.  They let the Bucs off the hook by trying to pass too much.

This Tampa Bay defense is in shambles right now.  They are missing several starters in the secondary, they just lost their biggest run stuffer in DT Vita Vea, and they just lost one of their best pass rushers in DE Calijah Kancey.  This is one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current form.

Rookie Bo Nix couldn't have faced two tougher defenses to start his NFL career.  He went on the road and lost 26-20 to the Seahawks, and last week he lost to the Steelers 13-6 at home.  It's safe to say Nix is in line for his best game of the season by far this week against this soft, banged-up Tampa Bay defense.  The Bucs have no business laying this big of a number given all their injuries, and in this clear letdown spot off the Detroit win last week.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* Eagles/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans ML -125

Every year there is one team that comes out of nowhere to exceed expectations in a big way.  That team in 2024 is the New Orleans Saints.  It just took Klint Kubiak to get the most out of Derek Carr and this offense, and Carr has been unleashed this season under Kubiak's watch.

Amazingly, the Saints have actually scored points on each of their first 15 possessions this season on drives started by Carr.  They blasted the Panthers 47-10 in Week 1, and many just credited that to bad Carolina instead of good New Orleans.  What are they going to say now after the Saints blasted the Cowboys 44-19 on the road in Week 2?

Fans are more excited about this team than they have been since Drew Brees was still around contending for Super Bowls.  The lowest ticket price to get into this game Sunday is $162, and this will be their biggest and loudest crowd in a long time.  It's going to get back to being one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.

While I am a believer in the Saints, I am pretty down on the Eagles as well.  I faded them with the Falcons +6 on Monday because they were going to be without AJ Brown.  Brown had 106 receptions for 1,456 yards and 7 TD last year, and he had 5 for 119 and a touchdown against the Packers in the opener.  He was out last week, and he's likely to be out again this week, and the Eagles just aren't that explosive without him.

Many expected this Philadelphia defense to be improved.  But that just hasn't been the case.  The Eagles rank 30th in total defense allowing 399.5 yards per game and 31st allowing 7.1 yards per play.  Now they must face a New Orleans offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 405.5 yards per game and 2nd at 7.0 yards per play.  I just don't see the Eagles getting enough stops to stay in this game.  Bet the Saints on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Texans/Vikings Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston ML -132

The Houston Texans are one of the most complete teams in the NFL.  They are 2-0 this season while the Minnesota Vikings are also 2-0.  But they aren't created equal.  Houston is the real contender between these teams, while I believe Minnesota is a pretender.

The Vikings beat the Giants 28-6 on the road in Week 1.  They came back and upset the 49ers 23-17 in Week 2.  That win over the 49ers sets them up for a letdown spot, and I just don't think they can overcome some key injuries to be able to beat this awesome Texans team this week.

WR Jordan Addison is out as is TE TJ Hockenson.  WR Justin Jefferson suffered a quad contusion that knocked him out of the 49ers game.  While he is expected to play this week, he won't be 100%. Sam Darnold is really running out of weapons in a hurry, and I just don't think he can keep pace with this high-octane Houston offense.

I think the fact that the Texans failed to cover the spread in their first two games is keeping this line shorter than it should be.  The Colts scored on a 4th down in the final seconds to lost 29-27 as 3-point dogs.  The Bears kicked a FG late to cover as 6.5-point dogs in a 19-13 defeat.  This was after the Texans fumbled on a 1st-and-goal from the 3 that would have put the game away.

Houston's numbers have been dominant.  They are averaging 363.5 yards per game on offense and allowing 254 yards per game on defense, outgaining opponents by over 109.5 yards per game.  I am really excited about their defense as they have one of the best pass-rushes and secondary's in the league.  They already have 9 sacks on the season.  Bet the Texans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Twins/Red Sox AL Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -125

The Minnesota Twins need wins like blood right now.  They are clinching on to the final wild card spot in the American League just 0.5 games ahead of the Tigers and 1.5 games ahead of the Mariners.  They are max motivated today.

The same cannot be said for the Red Sox, who are 5 games back of the Twins with three teams ahead of them and only 8 games remaining.  They know they have no shot of making the playoffs and are letting go of the rope.  They just placed their best hitter in Rafael Devers on season-ending IR to boot.

Pablo Lopez is 15-8 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 30 starts for the Twins this season.  Lopez is going through his best stretch of the season right now, allowing 2 earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts.  He has allowed a total of 5 earned runs in 40 2/3 innings in his last six starts for a 1.11 ERA.

Lopez will be facing an ice cold Boston lineup that has scored a total of 9 runs in their last five games for an average of 1.8 runs per game.  The Twins have gotten healthy in their lineup down the stretch and will tee off on Nick Pivetta, who has allowed 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 11 innings in his last three starts against Minnesota.  Bet the Twins Sunday.

20* K-State/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU +7.5

BYU gave Oklahoma and Oklahoma State all they wanted in their final two games last season.  They lost 31-24 as 25-point home dogs to Oklahoma and 40-34 as 16-point road dogs to Oklahoma State in double-OT.  It was a sign of things to come this season.

The Cougars brought back 14 starters and look like one of the most improved teams in this country thus far.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Southern Illinois 41-13 as 16.5-point home favorites, upsetting SMU 18-15 as 12.5-point road underdogs and crushing Wyoming 34-14 as 9.5-point road favorites.

While the offense finished strong last year and is solid again, it's the improvements on defense that have really stood out.  The Cougars held SMU's high-powered offense to just 261 total yards and a paltry 3.6 yards per play.  They rank 12th in the country allowing 236.3 yards per game on the season and 12th at 3.8 yards per play thus far.

Kansas State had high expectations coming into the season with many picking them to win the Big 12.  With those expectations comes lines that are tough for them to live up to.  The Wildcats have no business being more than a touchdown road favorite here against this upstart BYU team.

We saw the Wildcats struggle in their lone road game this season against a rebuilding Tulane team with a new head coach.  They won 34-27 as 9.5-point road favorites, but they were very lucky to win that game.  They trailed 20-10 at halftime and got a 40-yard fumble recovery TD in the 4th quarter that was the difference.  Tulane actually outgained Kansas State 491 to 396 for the game, or by nearly 100 yards.

BYU has one of the best home-field advantages in the country when they are good, and fans are excited about this team after a 3-0 start.  It will be a raucous atmosphere Saturday night in Provo for this 10:30 EST start time.  Their home-field advantage is worth more than is being factored into this line.  This should be much closer to PK.  Bet BYU Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Rockies/Dodgers OVER 8.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  They have scored at least 6 runs in six consecutive games, including 9 runs or more five times.  They have scored a total of 61 runs in those six games for an average of 10.2 runs per game.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this OVER 8.5 on their own tonight against Cal Quantrill, who is 8-10 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  Quantrill does not enjoy facing the Dodgers, allowing 12 earned runs and 32 base runners in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them.

The Rockies have scored at least 3 runs in eight of their last nine games, including 4 runs or more seven times.  They can get to at least 3 or 4 here off of Walker Buehler, who just hasn't been the same since Tommy John surgery.  Buehler is 1-5 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  He has not enjoyed facing the Rockies, allowing 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 18 base runners in 10 innings in two starts against them in 2024.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Louisiana-Monroe +45

Texas is the new No. 1 ranked team in the country after Georgia struggled to get by Kentucky last week.  The Longhorns are off to a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start including a 31-12 road win at Michigan.  With that No. 1 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to.  The Longhorns shouldn't be laying 45 points to an upstart Louisiana-Monroe team Saturday.

The Longhorns avoided a letdown last week off the Michigan win with a 56-7 win over UTSA.  That's a UTSA team that is way down this season and one that lost 49-10 to Texas State the previous week.  Arch Manning came in for an injured Quinn Ewers and lit it up.  He threw 4 TD passes while also rushing for a 67-yard TD.

Fans and the media are praising Manning now as he will get the start in this game as Ewers recovers.  But what made Texas such a good bet to cover these big numbers was having Manning take over for Ewers late in blowouts and to keep piling on the points.  That won't be the case this week.

The Longhorns are much more concerned with just getting out of here with a win, and looking ahead to their SEC opener against Mississippi State next week.  They are excited about their first season as a member of the SEC and will be looking to prove themselves next week, not this week.  I think this is their flat spot, and they won't be looking to pile on the points late with their 3rd-sting QB.

Louisiana-Monroe has been impressive in its 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start.  They beat Jackson State 30-14 as 5.5-point home favorites in their opener.  Jackson State went on to beat Lane 58-7 and Southern 33-15.  They beat UAB 32-6 as 11-point home dogs in their second game of the season.  UAB went on to give Arkansas all they wanted in a 37-27 road loss as 22-point underdogs last week.

Meanwhile, ULM has had the last two weeks off after getting a bye to prepare to face Texas.  The Warhawks will be looking at this as their 'National Championship' game, and I look for them to give the Longhorns much more than they bargained for.  New head coach Bryant Vincent is doing a great job already in his first season turning the Warhawks into a ball control team that actually plays defense as they have allowed just 272.5 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  He brought in some great talent that is flying under the radar.

Speaking of ball control offense, ULM ranks 126th in the country in tempo with 31.2 seconds in between snaps.  They will slow this game down to a crawl, which will give them a better chance of covering this massive 45-point spread.  That will limit Texas' possessions and give them their best chance of being competitive.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Akron +28.5

I love fading teams in South Carolina's situation this week.  They are coming off a gut-wrenching 36-33 home loss to LSU last week with ESPN's College GameDay in attendance.  It will be hard for them to get back up off the mat to face Akron this week, and they have Ole Miss on deck.  That makes this a massive sandwich spot for the Gamecocks stepping out of conference to face a MAC school sandwiched in between those two huge SEC games.

That's no two very physical games in a row against Kentucky and LSU for the Gamecocks.  They didn't come away unscathed as they lost their starting QB and will likely be starting a backup, but either way the Gamecocks aren't very good at the position.

This South Carolina offense leaves a lot to be desired.  They rank 114th at 312.7 yards per game and 112th at 4.9 yards per play.  They are averaging just 147.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 121st.  They had misleading wins over both Kentucky and Old Dominion.

Their 23-19 win over Old Dominion in the opener was very concerning.  Both of their touchdowns came after turnovers on drive starting inside the ODU 10-yard line.  They were outgained by the Monarchs in that game, and I think we see them struggle similarly against Akron this week given the terrible spot for them.

Akron actually held its own against Ohio State in the opener.  The Zips were only down 17-3 at halftime before Ohio State got two defensive touchdowns in the 2nd half to pull away.  They held Ohio State's high-powered offense to just 404 total yards.  They predictably struggled against Rutgers the next week as that's a brutal stretch of two physical Big Ten opponents.

The Zips came out flat in Week 3 falling behind Colgate 17-0.  But they dusted themselves off and outscored Colgate 31-3 the rest of the way.  QB Ben Finley was impressive with 358 passing yards and 4 TD and he is a Power-4 level QB after transferring in from NC State.  Joe Moorhead is in his 3rd season at Akron and has brought in some great recruits to make the Zips competitive.

Sure, Moorhead is just 4-20 in his first two seasons, but the Zips have been much more competitive than that record shows.  In fact, they 12 of those 20 losses have come by 11 points or less, they have just been unfortunate in close games.  They are one of the most undervalued teams in the country this season as a result.  Bet Akron Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Oklahoma ABC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 57.5

Tennessee has put up some of the best offensive numbers we've ever seen through three games.  The Volunteers are averaging 63.7 points per game, 639.3 yards per game and 8.1 yards per play.  This despite not getting tested and really not having to play with much tempo in the 2nd half of every game.

The Volunteers will get tested against Oklahoma, and they will have to put their foot on the gas for four quarters.  They have a Heisman Trophy contender in Nico Iamaleava at quarterback, a dual-threat who is completing 72% of his passes while averaging 6.0 per carry and he has yet to finish a game because of blowouts.  You know head coach Josh Heupel, the former Oklahoma offensive coordinator who didn't get the head job and was disgruntled because of it, will be looking to unleash him this week.

Oklahoma also has one of the best young quarterbacks in the country in Jackson Arnold.  He has done well this season despite injuries at WR and along the offensive line, which are two positions that should be healthier this week.  Arnold is completing 63% of his passes for 484 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 159 yards and 2 TD on the ground.

Arnold has formed a nice chemistry with Purdue transfer WR Deion Burks, who has 22 receptions for 169 yards and 3 TD.  At least one reinforcement is on the way as WR Nic Anderson is expected to make his season debut this week.  Anderson was electric as a freshman last season, catching 38 balls for 798 yards and 10 TD while averaging 21.0 yards per reception.  He will instantly stretch the field for this offense and make life much easier on Arnold this week.

Tennessee only ranks 47th in tempo this season at 25.6 seconds in between plays, but by the end of the season they should be closer to Top 10 in this category because they want to play fast and will be in much more competitive games. Oklahoma ranks 27th in tempo at 24.3 seconds in between plays and wants to play fast as well.  Neither defense has come close to seeing an offense as explosive as they one they will be trying to tame Saturday.  I expect a shootout in Norman today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Bowling Green +23

Bowling Green is one of the most underrated teams in the country this season and a legit contender to win the MAC.  Scot Loeffler enters his 6th season at Bowling Green coming off a 7-6 campaign.  He has 15 starters back from a team that finished very strong last year.

The Falcons went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six MAC games last year with their lone loss coming against arguably the best team in the MAC in Toledo by a final of 32-31.  They also went on to lose to Big Ten foe Minnesota 30-24 in the Quick Lane Bowl.

The Falcons beat Fordham 41-17 as 15.5-point favorites in their opener.  Terion Stewart rushed for 161 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Falcons rushed for 303 yards as a team.  Stewart average 6.1 yards per carry last season.  QB Connor Bazelak is back as is leading receiver Harold Fannin.  And this Bowling Green defense is way underrated, allowing 24.0 points and 326 yards per game last season with seven starters back this season.  

The Falcons played Michigan tough last year in a 31-6 loss as 40-point road underdogs.  That's a Michigan team that went on to go 15-0 and win the National Championship.  I said the Falcons wouldn't be intimidated by Penn State in Week 2, and that proved to be the case.  They took the Nittany Lions to the wire in a 34-27 road loss as 34-point underdogs.

This despite not having Stewart at RB due to injury.  Bazelak did most of it with his arm with 254 passing yards and 2 TD while finding Fannin 11 times for 137 yards and a score.  Now Bowling Green has a bye week to get healthy, and they should have Stewart back this week and be fresh and ready to test themselves against an SEC opponent in Texas A&M.

This is a potential flat spot for the Aggies, who beat Florida 33-20 on the road last week, and now could get caught looking ahead to Arkansas next week.  This is a sandwich spot for the Aggies as they won't be nearly as excited to face Bowling Green as they were Florida or as they will be against Arkansas.  Just being a little flat will make it difficult for them to cover this lofty 23-point spread.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on DBacks/Brewers OVER 8

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 34-18 in their last 52 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 245 runs in their last 37 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.  The Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season with a solid offense.

I expect the Diamondbacks to do the heavy lifting here and are more than capable of covering this 8-run total on their own.  They should tee off on Aaron Civale, who is 7-8 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 29 starts this season.

The Brewers should do enough off of Merrill Kelly and this Arizona bullpen to contribute to this total.  Kelly is 4-0 with a 4.00 ERA in 11 starts for the Diamondbacks this season.

The OVER is 36-13-1 in Diamondbacks last 50 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 36 of them.  Arizona and its opponents have combined for 10 runs or more in eight of its last 12 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +100

The Arizona Diamondbacks are highly motivated for wins right now.  They are tied with the Mets for the last two spots in the NL wild card.  They need these games like blood right now.

The same cannot be said for the Milwaukee Brewers, who just clinched the NL Central division and could let go of the rope here down the stretch with not much to play for.  They are four games behind both the Phillies and Dodgers so their chances of catching them with 8 games to go are slim to none, and they know it.

The Diamondbacks also have a huge advantage on the mound tonight. Merrill Kelly. is 4-0 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Kelly has owned the Brewers, allowing just 5 earned runs in 19 innings in his last three starts against them.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 34-18 in their last 52 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 245 runs in their last 37 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

They should tee off on Aaron Civale, who is 7-8 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 29 starts this season.  The Brewers have been held to 2 runs or fewer in three of their last four games, and 3 runs or fewer in 10 of their last 14 games.  Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami/South Florida OVER 65

These are two of the most explosive offenses in the country squaring off down in the heat in Tampa, Florida Saturday night and it will be a game filled with offensive fireworks.  I think the Bulls can go score for score with the Hurricanes in an absolute shootout.

South Florida ranks 6th in the country in tempo with just 21.9 seconds in between snaps thus far.  The Bulls returned 10 starts on offense from a unit that put up 31.9 points per game and 452 yards per game last season.  They are even better this season, hanging 48 points on Bethune-Cookman and 49 points on Southern Miss.  They only managed 16 points against Alabama, but they had their opportunities.

I love sophomore QB Byrum Brown, who completed 65% of his passes for 3,292 yards and a 26-to-11 TD INT ratio, while also rushing for 809 yards and 11 scores last year.  He is a dual-threat who is one of the best QB's in the country that not too many folks know about.

Miami's offense looks electric with the addition of QB Cam Ward from Washington State.  The Hurricanes hung 41 points on Florida, 56 on Florida A&M and 62 on Ball State in their first three games.  Ward is quickly climbing up the Heisman Trophy odds board completing 73% of his passes for 1,035 yards with an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games.

Miami hasn't been tested yet, so they haven't had to put the throttle down offensively.  They will have to try to go score for score with USF this week because the Bulls will be by far the best offense they have faced.  But they should have plenty of success against a USF defense that allowed 32.2 points per game last season, and while they may be improved this season, they don't get to see many offenses as good as this Miami unit.  They allowed 42 points to Alabama two games ago, and 24 points and 487 yards to a bad Southern Miss offense last week.  

South Florida and its opponents have combined for at least 62 points in 16 of their last 21 regular season games, including 65 points or more in 13 of those.  The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play, how efficient they are offensively and how poor they are defensively.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Miami/USF ESPN No-Brainer on South Florida +18

The South Florida Bulls are loaded this season with 18 returning starters for one of the best young coaches in college football in Alex Golesh.  He led the Bulls to a bowl game in his first season on the job last year with a 45-0 win over Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Now the Bulls have been nothing short of impressive in their first three games this season.  They are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with blowout wins over Bethune-Cookman 48-3 and Southern Miss 49-24.  It was impressive that they avoided the letdown last week with that 25-point win at USM as 13-point favorites.

They were coming off their deflating, misleading 42-16 loss at Alabama as 30.5-point dogs the previous week.  And they had this game against Miami on deck, making it a big sandwich spot.  They showed a lot of maturity last week, and they will be ready for their 'National Championship' at home against Miami this week.

The 42-16 loss to Alabama was much closer than the final score.  The Bulls had a chance to tie that game with just under 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter, but settled for a 22-yard FG instead of going for it on 4th and goal from the 5 when they were down 8.  The Crimson Tide managed to score 3 touchdowns in the final 6 minutes to turn a 21-16 game into a 42-16 game.  The Bulls let go of the rope after that short FG.  They actually had more first downs than Alabama and held them below 400 total yards.  It was the 2nd consecutive year they took the Crimson Tide to the wire.

No question Miami has been impressive this season.  But they have also benefited from a very soft schedule.  Their win over Florida in the opener doesn't look nearly as good now as the Gators look like one of the worst teams in the SEC.  They beat FCS Florida A&M 56-9 as 48-point favorites and Ball State 62-0 as 37-point favorites.  Ball State is a rebuilding team that only returned one starter on defense this season.

The Hurricanes will finally face a team with a pulse this week in South Florida.  I like this Miami team both offensively with Cam Ward and defensively with all their talent, but this is the type of game head coach Mario Cristobal could blow.  I don't trust him to make the right decisions as he has blown it time and time again as a head coach.  Miami has its ACC opener on deck against Virginia Tech on Friday and could get caught looking ahead to that game as well.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on East Carolina/Liberty OVER 52.5

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team this season with their shift to an up-tempo, Air Raid offense.  They rank 5th in the country in tempo at 21 seconds in between snaps.  They haven't been as efficient as they'd like, but with three games now under their belts that should change moving forward.

I think we are getting great value on this OVER 52.5 because ECU has actually gone under the total in their first three games due to not turning their yardage into points and tempo into points.  They are putting up 432 yards per game with a balanced attack of 143 rushing yards per game and 289 passing yards per game.

Now they face an elite offense in Liberty that they are going to have to go score for score with in this one.  Liberty put up 38.3 points per game and 499 yards per game last season.  They brought back QB Kaidon Salter, who had a 32-to-6 TD/INT ratio last season while also rushing for 1,089 yards and 12 scores as one of the best dual-threats in the country.  RB Quinton Cooley is back after rushing for 1,401 yards and 16 TD last season.

The Flames have averaged 471 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play thus far in 2024.  They are coming off a low-scoring game against UTEP in which they took knees at the 1-yard line in the final seconds which is also adding to our value here on this OVER.  This is a great contrarian OVER game after the results from both teams last week with ECU playing a lower-scoring game against Appalachian State as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +21.5

I think the Missouri Tigers are grossly overvalued after blowout wins and covers over a pair of cupcakes in Murray State 51-0 as 50.5-point favorites and Buffalo 38-0 as 32-point favorites.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games dating back to last season.  They are starting to get too much respect from the books.

Missouri is the No. 7 ranked team in the country currently.  With that Top 10 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are tough for them to live up to.  I took advantage and backed Boston College +17 last week in a 27-21 road loss to Missouri.  And I'll gladly fade the Tigers again with Vanderbilt +21.5 in their SEC opener against the Tigers this week.

Vanderbilt is clearly an improved team that brought back 15 starters this season.  They proved it with their 34-27 upset home win as 13-point underdogs to Virginia Tech in the opener.  That's a VA Tech team that many thought would contend for an ACC title because they finished strong last year and brought 21 starters from that team.  They still may very well contend for an ACC title.

The Commodores avoided the letdown in Week 2 with a 55-0 win over Alcorn State as 33.5-point favorites.  But the letdown came last week with their 36-32 outright loss to Georgia State as 8.5-point road favorites.  They were likely caught looking ahead to Missouri this week.  That result is providing us extra line value this week that we will take advantage of.  Had they beaten Georgia State, this line would likely be closer to 14 instead of 21.5.

Eight of the last 10 meetings were decided by 17 points or fewer, including 10 points or fewer in seven of those 10 meetings.  The Tigers will get more of a fight from the Commodores than they bargained for.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Navy +10

The Memphis Tigers were one of the top contenders to make the playoffs from the Group of 5 coming into the season.  They won the game they had to last week, upsetting Florida State on the road.  Now this is a clear flat spot for the Tigers off that big win against an ACC opponent.

But Florida State is no good this season, getting upset as double-digit favorites by both Georgia Tech and Boston College before getting upset as 6.5-point favorites against Memphis.  So let's not crown the Tigers just yet.  I wouldn't be surprise if they lose outright to Navy this week, and at the very least they should not be double-digit favorites given this obvious flat spot.

I also like what I've seen from Navy this season.  Brian Newberry stepped into a tough situation in his first season at Navy last year and held up well with a 5-7 record.  Now he has 14 starters back this season, which is a ton for a service academy.

Navy beat Bucknell 49-21 as 31.5-point favorites in the opener and crushed Temple 38-11 as 11.5-point favorites in Week 2.  Now the Midshipmen have had two full weeks to prepare for Memphis after receiving a bye last week.  That is another big advantage in their favor.

This Navy offense is really clicking with 280.5 rushing yards per game and 142.5 passing yards per game.  The catalyst is QB Blake Horvath, who has rushed for 155 yards and 3 scores while also throwing for 220 yards and 3 TD.  They key to these triple-option offenses is always the QB, and Navy looks to have a good one this season.

Memphis only beat Navy 28-24 as 11-point home favorites last season.  The Midshipmen outgained them by 24 yards and racked up 299 yards on the ground.  This Memphis defense is their weakness again and they can be had.  I think the Midshipmen keep this game close for four quarters with a great shot to pull off the upset in the end.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Army -5

The Army Black Knights went 6-6 last season but were not invited to a bowl for a 2nd consecutive season.  They were extremely motivated in the offseason because of it, and I think the Black Knights are a sleeping giant this season as a result.

This could be one of the best offenses of the Jeff Monken era in his 11th season on the job.  Eight starters return on offense this season including senior QB Bryson Daily.  He threw for 913 yards and 7 TD last season while also rushing for a team-high 901 yards and 7 scores.

Daily and the offense got going in a big way in a 42-7 win over Lehigh as a 32-point favorite in their opener.  They racked up 375 rushing yards including 78 and two touchdowns from Daily.  Army went on to upset Florida Atlanta 24-7 on the road in Week 2 while outgaining the Owls 449 to 235 in a dominant effort.

Keep in mind Florida Atlantic showed well in their other two games, making that win by Army look even more impressive.  FAU only lost 16-10 at Michigan State as 12-point dogs and topped Florida International 38-20 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Now Army is coming off a bye week giving them a full two weeks to prepare for Rice. The Owls made a bowl game each of the last two seasons, but it looks like head coach Mike Bloomgren has lost his touch this season.  The losses of QB JT Daniels and WR Luke McCaffrey have proven to be too much to overcome.

This Rice offense looks awful thus far to say the least.  The Owls lost 34-14 as 10-point home favorites to Sam Houston State, failing to cover by 30 points with just 274 total yards on offense.  Last week, the Owls lost 33-7 at Houston as 4.5-point dogs, failing to cover by 21.5 points.  They only managed 159 total yards against the Cougars.

I don't think Rice can keep up with Army this week.  The Owls allowed 237 rushing yards to Houston and 178 rushing yards to Sam Houston State.  Now they must face an Army rushing attack that will likely wind up being the best in the country.  They are averaging 390 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry thus far.  Bet Army Saturday. 

20* San Jose State/Washington State CFB Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State +14.5

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season.  They beat a quality FCS team in Sacramento State 42-24 as 2.5-point favorites, upset Air Force 17-7 as 3-point road dogs and covered as 16.5-point home favorites in a 31-10 win over Kennesaw State.  Ken Niumatalolo found a good landing spot here at San Jose State because Brent Brennan did not leave the cupboard bare.

Washington State has been underrated up to this point as well going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS including upset wins over Texas Tech and Washington in their last two.  And that win over Washington in the Apple Cup last week is the reason I'm fading the Cougars here.  This is a clear letdown spot off their 'Super Bowl', and they won't care nearly as much about beating San Jose State this week as they cared about beating Washington last week.

It's also worth mentioning those were two misleading finals as well.  Texas Tech had 491 yards while Washington State had 416 yards, yet the Red Raiders lost by 21 due to committing 4 turnovers.  Washington lost 24-19 despite outgaining Washington State 452 to 381 for the game as well.  Those misleading finals have the Cougars way overvalued now.  We'll take advantage.  

San Jose State is allowing 248.3 yards per game and 3.5 yards per play while Washington State is allowing 464 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  I'll gladly back the better defense at a nice value here tonight.  Bet San Jose State Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Diamondbacks/Brewers OVER 7.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 33-18 in their last 51 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 238 runs in their last 36 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.  The Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season with a solid offense.

I expect the Diamondbacks to do the heavy lifting here and are more than capable of covering this 7.5-run total on their own.  They should tee off on Colin Rea, who has allowed 19 earned runs and 7 homers in 18 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 9.16 ERA.

The Brewers should do enough off of Zac Gallen and this Arizona bullpen to contribute to this total.  Gallen allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings of an 11-10 win over the Brewers in his last start on September 15th.

The OVER is 35-13-1 in Diamondbacks last 49 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 35 of them.  Arizona and its opponents have combined for 10 runs or more in seven of its last 11 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Arizona Diamondbacks -118

The Arizona Diamondbacks are highly motivated for wins right now.  They are tied with the Mets for the 2nd wild card spot and only two games ahead of the Braves from missing the playoffs completely.  They need these games like blood right now.

The same cannot be said for the Milwaukee Brewers, who just clinched the NL Central division and could let go of the rope here down the stretch with not much to play for.  They are three games behind both the Phillies and Dodgers so their chances of catching them with 9 games to go are slim to none.

The Diamondbacks also have a huge advantage on the mound tonight.  Zac Gallen is 12-6 with a 3.61 ERA in 26 starts this season.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 16 innings with 22 K's in his last three starts coming in.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 33-18 in their last 51 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 238 runs in their last 36 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

They should tee off on Colin Rea, who has allowed 19 earned runs and 7 homers in 18 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 9.16 ERA.  The Brewers have been held to 2 runs or fewer in three consecutive games, and 3 runs or fewer in 10 of their last 13 games.  Bet the Diamondbacks Friday.

15* Illinois/Nebraska FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 43.5

Both Illinois and Nebraska are dead nuts UNDER teams that rely on defense to win games and play at a very slow tempo.  Illinois ranks 122nd in the country at 30.3 seconds in between snaps, while Nebraska ranks 115th at 29.8 seconds.

Nebraska brought back eight starters from a unit that allowed just 18.3 points per game and 304 yards per game last season.  They are allowing 6.7 points per game, 255.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play this season despite facing two offensive-minded teams in Colorado and UTEP.

Illinois is allowing 8.7 points per game, 277.3 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.  This despite facing two offensive-minded teams in Kansas and Central Michigan.  They held the Jayhawks to 17 points and the Chippewas to 9 points.

Nebraska and its opponents have combined for 47 or fewer points in 18 of its last 20 games overall, including 42 or fewer in 15 of those.  Illinois is 3-0 UNDER in all games this season with 45 or fewer combined points in all three, including 40 or fewer in the last two.  The UNDER is 2-0 in the two meetings over the last two seasons with 35 and 27 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Braves/Marlins OVER 8.5

The Miami Marlins are a dead nuts OVER team at home this season.  The OVER is 54-22-2 in all Miami home games.  The Marlins have allowed at least 5 runs in six of their last seven home games.  They allow 5.3 runs per game on the season.

The Atlanta Braves are starting to mash here down the stretch as they try and stay alive for a NL wild card spot.  They are averaging 6.4 runs per game in their last nine games.  They are capable of covering this total on their own tonight.

Valente Bellozo is fortunate to have a 3.70 ERA in 11 starts this season when you consider he has just 39 K's in 58 1/3 innings and pitches to contact.  He has already allowed 12 homers this season as well.

The Marlins have scored a total of 38 runs in their last five home games for an average of 7.6 runs per game.  Charlie Morton has allowed 12 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts at Miami.  The Marlins will do enough off him to contribute to this OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Patriots/Jets AFC East No-Brainer on New York -6

The New York Jets needed some time to gel offensively with Aaron Rodgers.  They were a little out of sync in Week 1 and understandably so, losing 32-19 on the road to the San Francisco 49ers as 3.5-point dogs.  They have been undervalued since, and continue to be as only 6-point home favorites over the New England Patriots Thursday.

The Jets had a big second half offensively to pull away for a 24-17 win as 4-point road favorites at Tennessee.  Breece Hall scored on a 26-yard TD pass from Rodgers, and Rodgers made a great check at the line to spring Braelon Allen for the game-winning 20-yard TD run with under 5 minutes left in the 4th.

Now the Jets get to play in front of their home fans for the first time this season Thursday night.  It's safe to say it is going to be a madhouse as fans have waited two years to see Rodgers in person.  This will be one of the best home-field advantages of the entire season what the Patriots will have to go up against on the road Thursday night.

Everyone thought the Patriots would be the worst team in the NFL this season.  Instead, they upset the Bengals 16-10 in Week 1 and took Seattle to OT in a 23-20 home loss in Week 2.  Now the Patriots have to travel on a short week off that OT game, so they will be extra fatigued for this one.  They are overvalued after going 1-0-1 ATS thus far.  Teams off an OT game with 4 or less days' rest against team that's not also off an OT game are 3-23 ATS since 2002.

The Patriots are also dealing with a ton of injuries.  Four of their starting five offensive linemen are on the injury report.  They just lost MLB Ja'Whuan Bentley to a shoulder injury last week and that's a big blow, especially after losing Matthew Judon to the Falcons in the offseason.  The Jets did lose LB Jermaine Johnson last week, but CJ Mosley's injury was minor, and CB CJ Reed could return this week.

While both teams have pretty good defenses, there is a big discrepancy on offense.  The Patriots have arguably the worst offense in the NFL if it's not the Carolina Panthers, which is may not be now that Andy Dalton is starting.  The Patriots are a one-dimensional running team who are easy to stop.  They have no weapons outside, and QB Jacoby Brissett has only been looking at TE Hunter Hentry almost exclusively thus far.  He has 15 receptions and nobody else has more than 8 this season.

The Jets will get better every week offensively and will turn into a Top 10 offense in my opinion.  They are just too loaded everywhere not to be.  They had massive upgrades on their offensive line in the offseason, brought in WR Mike Williams to go along with Breece Hall, Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson, and of course arguably the biggest upgrade at QB in NFL history.  The Jets should be at least 7-point home favorites today given all the advantages they have.  We'll take advantage and lay the 6 points.  Bet the Jets Thursday.

15* South Alabama/App State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on OVER 64

Two great offenses square off against two of the worst defenses in the country Thursday night in what should be a shootout in the Sun Belt.  The forecast looks good for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's, zero wind and only a small chance of rain.

South Alabama ranks 11th in the country at 512.3 yards per game and 10th at 7.7 yards per play.  New head coach Major Applewhite was their offensive coordinator last season and has another elite offense, but the defense is really hurting with the loss of defensive-minded Kenny Wommack, who left to become the defensive coordinator at Alabama.

The Jaguars only have three starters back on defense and lose six of their top seven tacklers.  Their defense allowed 52 points and 550 total yards to North Texas, and 27 points and 404 total yards to Ohio.

Appalachian State has scored at least 33 points per game in at least seven consecutive seasons.  They have another great offense this season led by senior QB Joey Aguilar, who had a 33-to-10 TD/INT ratio last season.  The Mountaineers are averaging 456 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season despite facing two good defenses in Clemson and East Carolina.  This will be their easiest test yet.

Appalachian State ranks 128th in the country allowing 7.0 yards per play this season.  They allowed 66 points to Clemson.  We have two offensive-minded head coaches that aren't that concerned with playing defense here tonight.  Plus, Appalachian State has a couple defensive starters that have to sit out the 1H due to targeting penalties.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Diamondbacks/Brewers OVER 8

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 32-18 in their last 50 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 233 runs in their last 35 games for an average of 6.7 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season with a solid offense.  They should get to Brandon Pfaadt, who is 9-9 with a 4.81 ERA in 29 starts this season.  Pfaadt is going through his worst stretch of the year, allowing 25 earned runs in 22 innings in his last five starts.  He allowed 8 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings of a 15-8 loss to the Brewers in his last start, and they will tag him again today.

Tobias Myers was opposite Pfaadt in that 15-8 win on September 14th.  Myers allowed 4 earned runs and 9 hits in 6 innings in that start.  I think the fact that both lineups just recently saw these two starting pitchers gives them an advantage getting to face both less than a week later.

The OVER is 35-12-1 in Diamondbacks last 48 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 35 of them.  Arizona and its opponents have combined for 10 runs or more in seven of its last 10 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dodgers/Marlins OVER 8

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight in Game 3 of this series after combining for 20 runs in Game 1 and 12 runs in Game 2.  The Marlins are a dead nuts OVER team at home, and the Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game on the season.

Jack Flaherty allowed 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 3 innings to the Braves in his last start.  Edward Cabrera is 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Cabrera has allowed 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 7 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight.  The Dodgers have scored 8 runs or more in four consecutive games and are capable of covering this total on their own.  The Marlins have scored at least 9 runs in each of their last three of their last four home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Twins/Guardians UNDER 8.5

It was a tough break for UNDER bettors yesterday between the Twins and Guardians in a game that was tied 2-2 after 9 innings and finished 5-4 in extras.  I think that is providing us with some line value today on this UNDER 8.5 in a game between two dead nuts UNDER teams.

There will be light winds blowing in from center today in Cleveland with this 1:10 EST start time.  I like backing UNDERS in these early day games because players tend to be sleep walking through them, the sun light favors the pitchers, and many times hitters rest on getaway day.

Simeon Woods-Richardson has allowed just 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 12 1/3 innings in two starts against the Guardians this season.  Joey Cantillo has allowed just one earned run and 6 base runners in 12 innings with 16 K's in his last two starts for Cleveland.

The Twins and Guardians have combined for 9 or fewer runs in eight consecutive meetings, including 8 or fewer after 9 innings in seven of those.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Marlins OVER 8.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight in Game 2 of this series after combining for 20 runs in Game 1.  The Marlins are a dead nuts OVER team at home, and the Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.0 runs per game on the season.

Landon Knack recently returned to the rotation and has allowed 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 13 base runners in 8 innings in his two starts since returning.  Ryan Weathers will be making his first start since June 7th and will be on a pitch count for the Marlins, meaning the Dodgers will get into their awful bullpen early.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 9 or more combined runs in six of those seven.  The Dodgers have scored exactly 9 runs in three consecutive games and are capable of covering this total on their own.  The Marlins have scored at least 9 runs in each of their last three home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians -114

The Minnesota Twins are stumbling here down the stretch to let the Tigers and Mariners back in the wild card race.  They are dealing with some injuries and their offense hasn't been nearly as potent as it was for much of the season.  The Twins have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 15 of their last 19 games.

It won't get any easier for them today against Cleveland ace Tanner Bibee, who is 11-8 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 29 starts this season with 175 K's in 160 innings.  Bibee has owned the Twins this season, allowing 3 earned runs in 18 innings with 22 K's in three starts against them in 2024.

Bailey Ober allowed 5 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings to the Reds in his last start and 9 earned runs in 2 innings to the Braves four starts ago.  Ober allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his lone road start at Cleveland this season.

The Guardians are 9-3 in their last 12 meetings with the Twins and should be bigger favorites tonight.  Bet the Guardians Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on DBacks/Rockies OVER 10.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 31-18 in their last 49 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 224 runs in their last 34 games for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Colorado Rockies allow more runs than any team in baseball at 5.7 runs per game, and their numbers are better offensively but worse defensively at home.  The Rockies have scored a total of 28 runs in their last five games for an average of 5.6 runs per game.

Eduardo Rodriquez has allowed 14 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings in his last four starts for the Diamondbacks.  He has allowed 11 earned runs in 16 innings in his last three starts against Colorado.  

Austin Gomber is 5-10 with a 4.44 ERA in 28 starts for the Rockies this season with just 112 K's in 158 innings.  He will be facing the Diamondbacks for a 4th time this season, so they are very familiar with him and should get their bats going.  Gomber has allowed 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 24 base runners in 16 2/3 innings in those three previous starts.

The OVER is 34-12-1 in Diamondbacks last 47 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 34 of them.  Arizona and its opponents have combined for 16 or more runs in five of its last nine games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Astros/Padres MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 7.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 7.5 ticket tonight between the Astros and Padres, who are sending two of their best starters to the mound tonight.  These teams also have two of the best bullpens in baseball to shut it down for us late.

Hunter Brown is 11-8 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 28 starts this season with 168 K's in 158 innings.  Brown has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 14 of his last 17 starts.  He has lasted at least 6 innings in 17 of his last 20 starts.

Michael King is 12-9 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 28 starts this season with a whopping 191 K's in 161 2/3 innings.  King has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 11 consecutive starts, including 2 earned runs or fewer in 10 of those.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Angels OVER 8

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the White Sox and Angels tonight.  There will be light winds blowing out to center with temps in the 70's, which is bad news for these two gas can starting pitchers.

Griffin Canning is 5-13 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 28 starts for the Angels this season with just 117 K's in 156 1/3 innings and a whopping 28 homers allowed.  Canning allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings to the Twins in his last start.

Davis Martin is 0-4 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in eight starts for the White Sox this season.  Martin has allowed 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 14 innings in his last three starts.

The White Sox are heating up at the plate scoring 19 runs in their last three games.  The Angels have scored at least 3 runs in 10 consecutive games and 4 runs or more in eight of them.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings with 10 or more combined runs in six of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks/Rockies OVER 11

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 31-17 in their last 48 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 222 runs in their last 33 games for an average of 6.7 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Colorado Rockies allow more runs than any team in baseball at 5.7 runs per game, and their numbers are better offensively but worse defensively at home.  The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER ticket at hitter-friendly Coors Field.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center tonight.

It's amazing the Diamondbacks continue to send Jordan Montgomery out there to get crushed.  They paid him too much in the offseason and feel obligated.  Montgomery is 8-6 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 19 starts and four relieve appearances with just 73 K's in 108 innings.

Ryan Feltner is 2-10 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 27 starts for the Rockies this season.  Feltner has allowed 12 earned runs and 24 base runners in 12 innings in his last three starts against the Diamondbacks.

The OVER is 34-11-1 in Diamondbacks last 46 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 33 of them.  Arizona and its opponents have combined for 16 or more runs in five of its last eight games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Phillies -122

Getting Cy Young contender Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies as this short of a favorite against gas can Frankie Montas and the Milwaukee Brewers is a gift tonight.  We'll take advantage.

Wheeler is 15-6 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 29 starts this season with 199 K's in 179 2/3 innings.  Amazingly, Wheeler has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 13 of his last 14 starts.  That includes the one earned run in 7 innings he allowed in his lone start against the Brewers this season.

Montas is 7-10 with a 4.49 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 27 starts for the Brewers and Reds this season.  He has allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Philadelphia.  Bet the Phillies Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on A's/Cubs OVER 8

The Bucs beat the A's 9-2 yesterday to cover the total on their own.  They are more than capable of doing it again with how hot they are at the plate.  The Cubs have scored 5 runs or more in seven consecutive games with the OVER going 6-1 in those seven and 8 or more combined runs in all seven.

Mitch Spence is 7-9 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 21 starts and 11 relief appearances for the A's this season.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings with 11 or more combined runs in six of those seven.

The A's should get their bats going today against Jordan Wicks, who is 2-3 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in nine starts and one relief appearance for the Cubs this season.  Wicks has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 8 innings in his last two starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* MLB TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Diamondbacks/Rockies OVER 11

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 31-16 in their last 47 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 220 runs in their last 32 games for an average of 6.9 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

The Colorado Rockies allow more runs than any team in baseball at 5.7 runs per game, and their numbers are better offensively but worse defensively at home.  The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER ticket at hitter-friendly Coors Field.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center tonight.

Merrill Kelly is really struggling for the Diamondbacks.  He has allowed 19 earned runs and 7 homers in 27 1/3 innings in his last five starts for a 6.26 ERA.  I expect him to get shelled by the Rockies tonight.

Antonio Senzatela is 39-43 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in his career for the Rockies.  He will be making his first start of the season today, and I don't expect it to go well at all for him.  

The OVER is 34-10-1 in Diamondbacks last 45 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 33 of them.  Arizona and its opponents have combined for 16 or more runs in five of its last seven games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Falcons/Eagles ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +6

The Atlanta Falcons got a lot of hype coming into the season.  That led to them taking a lot of money in Week 1 as 4-point home favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They lost outright 18-10 despite holding the Steelers without a single touchdown.

The Steelers went on to beat the Broncos 13-6 on the road in Week 2 and clearly have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  It was a tough spot for Kirk Cousins in his return from an Achilles.  He looked a little hesitant which is to be expected with that much time off and thinking about the injury.

I expect Cousins and the Falcons to be much more comfortable in Week 2.  He is loaded with weapons on offense and playing behind one of the league's best O-Lines, plus the defense will be one of the most improved in the NFL with the additions of LB Judon and S Simmons just before the season.

The Eagles are actually in a bit of a tough spot returning home from Brazil following their 34-29 shootout win over the Green Bay Packers.  Their defense was their undoing last year, and it doesn't look much better this season already after allowing 29 points and 414 total yards to the Packers, including 163 rushing on 21 carries for an average of 7.8 yards per carry.  Bijan Robinson and the Falcons should have plenty of success on the ground in this one as well.

But one of the biggest reasons I'm on the Falcons is because the Eagles will be without their best offensive weapon in AJ Brown.  He was announced out on Sunday, and as soon as I saw the news I put in the Falcons +6.  Brown had 106 receptions for 1,456 yards and 7 TD last year, and he had 5 for 119 and a touchdown against the Packers in the opener.  

His loss is a huge blow because this Philadelphia offense was tough to tame with Brown, Smith and Barkley, but missing one of those three studs will make them much easier to defend.  This game will go down to the wire tonight, so catching 6 points is a very nice value.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Brewers OVER 8

This total of 8 is too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers.  The Phillies are scoring 4.9 runs per game and the Brewers are scoring 4.9 runs per game as two of the best offenses in the National League.

Aaron Civale has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 6-8 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 28 starts between the Rays and Brewers.

Rangers Suarez just returned from the IL and hasn't been the same starter since returning.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 30 base runners in 19 1/3 innings in his last four starts since returning.  He has also been on a pitch count.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Dodgers/Braves ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

This is a very low total for a game involving these two offenses and these two starting pitchers tonight.  The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.0 runs per game.  The Braves have gotten their bats going of late, scoring a total of 29 runs in their last four games.

The Braves should stay hot at the plate against gas can Walker Buehler, who is 1-5 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  His velocity is way down since surgery with just 49 K's in 59 innings and a whopping 15 homers allowed.  Buehler has allowed 7 earned runs, 2 homers and 17 base runners in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Braves.

The Dodgers should put up their best offensive effort of this series after a slow start to it.  They will tag Charlie Morton, who is 8-8 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  Morton has allowed 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 25 base runners in 15 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.