15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but it's pretty much a non-factor because they blew out the Mavericks 144-115 at home so they got to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.  Plus, the Bulls will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, so they are still very fresh and ready to go.

The Atlanta Hawks are in a world of hurt right now in the injury department, so they should not be favored in this game.  The only reason they are favored is because the Bulls are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Hawks are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Hawks are without Dejounte Murray (20.8 PPG, 6.2 APG) and John Collins (12.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG) tonight and could be without De'Andre Hunter (14.9 PPG), who is questionable.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday.  

20* Wisconsin/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin +4.5

Iowa got away with being without their best player on Thursday in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) in a 75-56 win over Iowa State in a game that closed Iowa -3.  Iowa State shot 3-of-22 (14%) from 3-point range while Iowa shot 12-of-23 (52%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen against Wisconsin.

Iowa's luck runs out today against a Wisconsin team that is 7-2 against the 27th-toughest schedule in the country.  The Badgers have wins over Maryland, Marquette, USC and Stanford.  Their two losses both came down to the wire in OT to Kansas by 1 and to Wake Forest by 3.  So they haven't lost by this margin yet this season.  And without Murray again, the Hawkeyes aren't going to get margin on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Badgers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Wisconsin Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Magic UNDER 222.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  The Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic will be playing in a rematch from Friday's 113-109 home win by the Magic for 222 combined points.  Now they play again here just two days later, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

The Magic aren't going to shoot 59.2% from the field again like they did in that first meeting, which was played at a snail's pace.  Both of these teams prefer to slow it down as they are both tied at 19th in pace this season.  

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 222, 229, 191 and 200 points.  They Raptors and Magic have combined for 222 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  The UNDER is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings in Orlando.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Maryland/Tennessee FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 135

Tennessee ranks 1st in the country in adjusted defense.  They don't play particularly fast ranking 169th in pace, either.  The Vols are holding opponents to 51.2 points per game on 32.7% shooting, holding opponents to 21.5 points per game less than their season averages.

Maryland ranks 240th in adjusted tempo and likes to play slow.  The Terrapins are 8-1 this season in large part due to ranking 32nd in adjusted defense.  They are holding opponents to 61.3 points per game on 39.5% shooting, holding opponents to 10.0 points per game less than their season averages.

Tennessee is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games coming off two consecutive home games.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Vols' last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kevin Willard is 52-29 UNDER vs. poor shooting teams that make 42% or less as a head coach.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bucs/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -3.5

I recommend buying the 49ers to -3 (-125) or better.  We'll back a 49ers team playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with four wins by 13 points or more.  That includes their impressive 33-17 win over the Miami Dolphins last week.

The 49ers have the Seahawks on their heels for the NFC West lead, so they don't be having a letdown this week.  They get a week of practice with Brock Purdy running the offense and preparing to be the starter, which will benefit him.  Purdy played well in his first significant action of the season, completing 25-of-37 passes for 210 yards with two touchdowns and one interception on a 4th down play jump ball.  Players love him, and with Jimmy G being no more than a game manager, Purdy actually has more upside.

But the key here is the 49ers are going to shut down the Bucs.  The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 15.8 points per game, 1st in total defense at 283.9 yards per game and 5th at 4.8 yards per play.  They have a tremendous defensive line and pass rush, and the Bucs have struggled against dominant defensive lines because they are missing so many starters on the offensive line, plus they just aren't very skilled in that department.  It's their biggest weakness.

It's the reason the Bucs are struggling so much on offense this season.  They rank 27th in scoring offense at 18.1 points per game, 17th in total offense at 340.0 yards per game and 25th at 5.0 yards per play.  They managed just 3 points against the Saints last week until their final two drives against the prevent to pull out a miracle victory.  The 49ers won't be playing prevent, and they will be getting after Brady for four quarters just as they did against Tua and the Dolphins last week, forcing them into four turnovers.  

The Dolphins are better than the Bucs, so the 49ers can't be 4.5-point home favorites over the Dolphins and only 3.5-point home favorites against the Bucs.  Especially with the Bucs now on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football and having to travel to the West Coast.  The value is on the 49ers this week due to Purdy being their quarterback, which is downgrading them in the betting markets more than it should be.

The Bucs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  San Francisco is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 vs. NFC opponents.  The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a non-conference game.  San Francisco is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games.  Kyle Shanahan is 7-0 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games as the coach of San Francisco.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -4.5

Youngstown State is 7-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road.  They are 3-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 32.7 points per game.  I think they are laying too short of a number here to Ohio.

Ohio is 0-4 SU in true road games this season and losing by 8.2 points per game.  And it's not like they've faced a murder's row on the road with the losses coming to Detroit, Belmont, Marshall and Michigan.

Ohio is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Youngstown State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Youngstown State Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions PK

The Detroit Lions have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall to keep their playoff hopes alive.  They are very much alive and well in the NFC, and I look for them to carry that momentum into a home win over the Minnesota Vikings Sunday.

The Vikings are 10-2 and the Lions are 5-7, but when you look at the numbers there isn't that much difference between these teams.  Amazingly, the Vikings are 10-2 despite getting outgained by 53 yards per game.  They are the most fraudulent 10-2 team in the history of the NFL due to going 9-0 in one score games.  Their luck runs out this week against the Lions.

The Vikings are coming off another misleading 27-22 home win over the Jets last week.  They were outgained by 199 yards by the Jets and should have lost.  There was nothing misleading about the Lions' 40-14 win over the Jaguars last week.  They outgained Jacksonville by 171 yards.  Their only loss during this five-game stretch came by 3 as 10-point home underdogs to the Bills on a last-second field goal.

The Lions rank 6th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game, 7th in total offense at 369.1 yards per game and 7th at 5.8 yards per play.  When they have been healthy, they have been dominant on offense.  They have been healthy lately and have scored 31.8 points per game in their last four games.  They will shred a Minnesota defense that ranks 31st in total defense at 398.7 yards per game and 30th at 6.0 yards per play.  S Harrison Smith, CB Patrick Peterson and LB Eric Kendricks are all questionable for the Vikings this week.

Detroit wants revenge from a 24-28 loss at Minnesota in their first meeting this season.  The Lions outgained the Vikings 416 to 373 and should have won.  But they blew a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter and gave up 14 points in the final eight minutes, including the game-winner with 45 seconds left.  They haven't forgotten, and they will get their revenge this week.

The Lions are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Detroit is 6-0 ATS in it last six games after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games.  The Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. NFC North opponents.  The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Detroit.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

20* NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +7

Let's just look at this from a line value perspective.  The Philadelphia Eagles were 6.5-point home favorites over the Packers two weeks ago and 4.5-point home favorites over the Titans last week.  The Giants beat both the Packers and Titans already this season.  And now the Eagles are 7-point road favorites at the Giants.  There's clearly value with the Giants catching 7 points at home.

The Giants are a tough team to get margin on.  They are 7-4-1 SU & 9-3 ATS this season with only two losses coming by more than one score.  And in those two losses by more than one score they actually outgained one team by 88 yards and were only outgained by 52 yards by the other, so they were misleading final scores.

The Giants rank 6th in the NFL in rushing this season at 149.7 yards per game.  Well, the one weakness of the Eagles is their run defense.  They have allowed at least 99 rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall.  They rank 24th in the NFL in allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  The Giants can stay in this game by running the ball, extending drives and keeping the Eagles' offense off the field.

The Eagles are 5-0 SU but just 1-4 ATS on the road this season.  They aren't getting margin on teams on the highway.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  The Giants have been home underdogs to the Eagles in each of their two previous home meetings and won both outright.

Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  New York is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Eagles this week in this divisional showdown on the road.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +6

The Cincinnati Bengals are in a massive letdown spot after their upset home win over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Joe Burrow is now 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes, but he's 0-5 against the Cleveland Browns.  The Browns have the Bengals' number, and that will continue Sunday.

Cleveland has saved its season with two consecutive impressive wins over the Bucs and Texans.  The defense is playing at a very high level right now holding the Bucs to 17 and the Texans to 14 points, while also forcing four turnovers against the Texans that set up several easy scores.

The headlines are that Deshaun Watson struggled, but that was expected in his first game action in two years.  He only attempted 22 passes and didn't have to do much because the defense controlled the game.  With a game under his belt now, he should be much more prepared to shine in Cincinnati.  Of course, he won't have to do too much in this one either because the Browns always run wild on the Bengals.

Indeed, the Browns are 5-0 SU in their last five meetings with the Bengals while averaging 32.8 points per game in those five wins.  They have averaged 165.4 rushing yards per game in the five wins as well.  Nick Chubb just has his way with this Cincinnati defense.  And Cleveland gets back star TE David Njoku, who caught the game-tying TD pass against the Bucs two weeks ago.

Burrow struggles against this Cleveland defense, too.  He's always under duress by Myles Garrett.  The Bengals have averaged just 15.0 points per game and 253 yards per game in their last three meetings with the Browns.  They lost 32-13 while getting outgained 440 to 229 by the Browns in their first meeting this season.

Plays against home teams (Cincinnati) - an excellent passing team averaging 7.3 YPA or more against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 YPA), after gaining 6.75 YPA or more in four consecutive games are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Browns Sunday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston -2.5

The Boston Celtics are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games overall.  They have been making a statement this season that they are the best team in the NBA after losing in the NBA Finals last season.  And now they get their chance at revenge on the Golden State Warriors, who they lost to in the Finals.

The Celtics have had this game circled all offseason and won't waste this opportunity to get their revenge.  They'll be up against a banged up Warriors team that is playing without Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG) tonight.  That's a big loss because they needed him to guard either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.

Boston is a perfect 10-0 ATS after winning four of its last five games this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  Boston is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Celtics are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 road games.  Boston simply wants this one more.  Take the Celtics Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -2

This is a terrible spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They are coming off a hard-fought 105-106 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night on National TV.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after that defeat, and they won't have much left in the tank playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here.

This is a great spot for the Chicago Bulls.  They come in on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They will run the Mavericks out of the building tonight at home.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and this is a great 'buy low' spot on them after failing to cover four consecutive games coming in.

Dallas is 0-7 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games this season.  The Mavericks are 2-10 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Chicago is 24-11 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Dallas is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5

This is a terrible spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 95-106 home loss to the Sacramento Kings last night, who were without De'Aron Fox.  A big reason the Cavaliers struggled is because they are dealing with injuries of their own.

Indeed, Donovan Mitchell (29.0 PPG) missed that game and is questionable to return tonight.  They are also without Kevin Love (10.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG) right now, one of their top reserves off the bench.  Dean Wade (6.4 PPG) remains out as well.

The Thunder are fully healthy and playing well, going 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They come in on two days' rest and will clearly be the fresher team for this one.  So getting 6.5 points with them in this favorable spot is too much.

The Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on two days' rest.  Oklahoma City is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 road games.  Cleveland is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on zero rest.  The Cavaliers are 15-39-4 ATS in their last 58 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

20* Arizona/Indiana FOX No-Brainer on Arizona PK

I think we are getting the Arizona Wildcats cheap at a PK today because they have failed to cover six of their last seven games overall.  This is a great time to 'buy low' on them as it's the first time all season they haven't been favored, and they have played a brutal schedule that has included Cincinnati, San Diego State, Creighton and Utah already.

Indiana has benefited from a much softer schedule with their best wins coming over Xavier and a banged-up UNC team.  They lost by 15 at Rutgers for their lone defeat, and they benefited from Nebraska being without one of their best players last game.  This is easily the toughest test of the season for Indiana.

This game is listed as a neutral, but no question the Wildcats will have the home-court advantage with more fans there with this game being played in Las Vegas.  Arizona has played the 85th-toughest schedule in the country while Indiana has played the 269th-toughest.  Jalen Hood-Schifino (8.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.1 APG) is questionable for the Hoosiers.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* Kansas/Missouri ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -3

I've been looking for spots to fade this Missouri Tigers team because they are overvalued due to their 9-0 record.  They have benefited from playing the 360th-ranked schedule in the country.  Now they take on a Kansas team that has played the 71st-toughest schedule in the country.

I faded Missouri with success last game as they struggled to even get by SE Missouri State 96-89 as a 21.5-point favorite.  And now I'll fade them again here against easily the toughest opponent they have faced to date in Kansas.  The previous toughest was Wichita State, and they needed OT to beat them.

Kansas has wins over Duke, NC State, Wisconsin and Seton Hall (by 26) already this season.  Their lone loss came against a very good Tennessee team.  Kansas beat Missouri 102-65 at home last season.  The favorite is now 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Memphis/Auburn ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Auburn -1

Bruce Pearl is doing a tremendous job at Auburn.  The Tigers are off to another great start this season at 8-0 SU.  I know it hasn't come against the most difficult schedule, but that's why were are getting them cheap here at basically a PK against the Memphis Tigers.

I trust Pearl more than Penny Hardaway, who just hasn't been able to get the most out of the talent on hand unlike Pearly.  Memphis already has two losses this season to Saint Louis and Seton Hall, and Auburn beat Saint Louis.  Seton Hall has lost by 26 to Kansas, by 16 to Iowa, by 13 to Oklahoma and lost outright to Siena, so that loss looks really poor now.

Auburn is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following seven or more consecutive wins.  Memphis is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 December games.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* Washington State/UNLV FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNLV -1.5

The UNLV Rebels are 9-0 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  This game against Washington State is listed as a neutral site venue, but it will basically be a home game for the Rebels being played at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.  Fans will come out in droves to watch this team try and keep their perfect record alive today.

Washington State is just 4-4 this season with its four wins coming against Texas State, Eastern Washington, Detroit and Northern Kentucky where they were substantial favorites in all four games.  They even lost outright as favorites to Utah, Boise State and Prairie Vie A&M.  They also lost by 14 at Oregon with three of their four losses coming by double-digits.  This team is way overvalued this season.

The Cougars are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Washington State is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with UNLV Saturday.

15* SDSU/Saint Mary's ESPN+ ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -1

The San Diego State Aztecs have a tremendous fan base and will have the home-court advantage despite this being played on a neutral in Phoenix.  Fans are excited about this team, and for good reason as the Aztecs are 7-2 this season with their two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in Arizona and Arkansas.

The Aztecs also have wins over BYU, Stanford and Ohio State and have played the 21st-toughest schedule in the country.  St. Mary's is 7-3 this season against the 99th-ranked schedule.  They have upset losses to Washington and New Mexico already this season.  Their best wins are over Missouri State, Vanderbilt and North Texas.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (San Diego State) - off a SU home win but ATS loss, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 73-36 (67%) ATS since 1997.  The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take San Diego State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Purdue/Nebraska UNDER 138

Purdue ranks 265th in adjusted tempo and 29th in adjusted defense.  Nebraska ranks 266th in adjusted tempo and 73rd in adjusted defense.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, and Nebraska's improvement defensively this season is not being factored into these totals enough.

Purdue is holding opponents to 11.5 points per game less than their season averages.  Nebraska is holding opponents to 5.9 points per game less than their season averages.  They just held Creighton to 53 points in an upset victory two games back.

Guard Mason Gillis (5.7 PPG, 44.4% 3-pointers) is questionable for Purdue while G Sam Griesel (11.3 PPG, 35.7% 3-pointers) is questionable for Nebraska today after sitting out at Indiana.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Boilermakers last 22 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Cornhuskers last 11 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Bucks/Mavericks ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Milwaukee PK

The Milwaukee Bucks are back to full strength for the first time all season.  They have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall and I think we are getting them at a great value as a PK against the Dallas Mavericks tonight.

The Mavericks are starting to get some respect after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But keep in mind they were 2-14-1 ATS in their previous 17 games.  This teams isn't very good, they aren't defending like they did last year, and they rely too much on Luka Doncic.  The Bucks have answers for him on defense that most teams don't with their length.

Dallas is 0-7 ATS following a loss by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after winning four or five of their last six games.  Dallas is 0-6 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Milwaukee tonight.  Take the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  I love the spot for them tonight because one of their non-covers came on December 4th just five days ago against the Memphis Grizzlies in a 10-point home loss as 6.5-point dogs.

Now the Pistons will be out for revenge from that defeat and are catching 10.5 points on the road in the rematch.  That's too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage, and too much considering the revenge factor as the Pistons will want this one more than the Grizzlies.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Grizzlies, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now they are double-digit favorites for the first time in their last 16 games.  You're paying a tax to back the Grizzlies at this point.

Detroit is 9-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Pistons are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Detroit is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games.  The Pistons have only lost one of their last 15 games by more than 10 points, making for a 14-1 system backing them pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Cavaliers OVER 222.5

This is a very low total for a game involving the Sacramento Kings.  The Kings rank 6th in the NBA in pace, 5th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency.  They are a dead nuts OVER team with the way they play.  15 of their last 16 games have seen at least 219 combined points.  Sacramento games are averaging 235.3 combined points per game this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the most efficiency offensive teams in the NBA as they rank 9th in offensive efficiency.  They will get whatever they want against the Kings, and they won't hesitate to get in a track meet with them, either.

These teams just met on November 9th a month ago with the Kings winning 127-120 for 247 combined points.  That's 24.5 points more than this posted total of 222.5, so there's clearly value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Spurs OVER 233.5

Both the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs are dead nuts OVER teams.  The Spurs rank 6th in pace while the Rockets rank 13th.  The Spurs rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency while the Rockets rank 28th.

The Spurs have lost 11 consecutive games and have allowed 117 or more points in 12 consecutive games.  The Rockets have allowed 120 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.  I think both teams get to 117-plus in this one, which is all we need to cash this OVER 233.5 ticket.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between San Antonio and Houston with combined scores of 243, 237, 238 and 252 points with none of those games going to overtime.  Enough said.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Raiders/Rams Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Las Vegas -5.5

The Las Vegas Raiders have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall to keep their playoff hopes alive.  There was nothing fluky about any of the three wins as they outgained their three opponents in the Chargers, Seahawks and Broncos by a combined 309 yards, or by an average of 103 yards per game.  Now they carry that momentum into their easiest opponent of the season Thursday night in the depleted Los Angeles Rams.

The only team worse than the Rams right now is the Houston Texans.  The Rams have lost six consecutive games with four of those losses by 7 points or more.  They were outgained in five of those six games and have been outgained by a total of 649 yards in those six games, or by an average of 108.2 yards per game.

Things are getting worse for the Rams before they get better.  They are without their three best players for this game in Stafford, Kupp and Donald.  They were so desperate that they even picked up Baker Mayfield off waivers after he wore out his welcome in Carolina.  There's a chance he even plays in this game, which would be a good thing for us if he does.

The Raiders got good news on the injury front with TE Darren Waller expected to make his return from a hamstring injury to give Derek Carr another weapon.  Of course, the Raiders have been thriving in the running game and with the Carr to Adams connection.  They have rushed for 182 yards per game in their last three games.  Adams has 79 receptions for 1,176 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.  

The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in five of their six losses during this six-game skid.  They have scored 20 or fewer points five times.  Whoever is under center will be playing behind an offensive line that ranks dead last in the NFL in pass blocking efficiency.  That's bad news going up against the tandem of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, who have really been getting after opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks.

This will pretty much be a home game for the Las Vegas Raiders.  The fair-weather Rams fans have given up on this team already.  Fans that live in the Los Angeles area, which there are millions of, will turn out to this game to support the Raiders.  It's also a short trip from Las Vegas to Los Angeles.  You'll hear fans cheering more for the Raiders than for the Rams in this one.

The Rams are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing 400 or more yards in two consecutive games.  Los Angeles is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games vs. AFC opponents.  Las Vegas is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in its previous game.  The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in their previous game.  Bet the Raiders Thursday.

20* Iowa State/Iowa FS1 No-Brainer on Iowa State +5.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are legit.  They are 7-1 this season with their lone loss coming to Connecticut, which may be the best team in the country at 10-0.  They have upset wins over UNC and Villanova and also handed St. John's their only loss of the season, 71-60.

The Cyclones beat the Hawkeyes 73-53 at home last season.  Iowa isn't as good as they were last season, and they could be without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG).  He was seen in a walking boot on Wednesday after suffering an injury early against Duke, but playing through it in a 62-74 loss on Tuesday.  Now the Hawkeyes are in a terrible spot playing their 2nd game in 3 days after having to travel back from Madison Square Garden where they played Duke in the Jimmy V Classic.  

Murray was clearly hobbled as he went 3-for-9 for 8 points against the Blue Devils and wasn't nearly as aggressive as he usually is.  With Murray at anything less than 100%, the Hawkeyes should not be 5.5-point home favorites over the Cyclones, let alone favored at all.  Iowa has been exposed when stepping up in class losing by 12 to Duke and by 13 to TCU against their two best opponents thus far.

Iowa State has had the last three days off and will the fresher, more prepared team.  Their defense travels as they rank 13th in the country in defensive efficiency.  They are holding opponents to 37.3% shooting overall and 26.3% from 3-point range while allowing only 56.7 points per game.  They are holding opponents to 17.5 points per game less than their season averages.

Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover two of its last three games.  The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

15* UConn/Florida ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4.5

The UConn Huskies are legitimately one of the top teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS this season with all nine wins coming by double-digits.  That includes wins over Oregon by 24, Alabama by 15 and Iowa State by 18 on neutrals.

The Huskies rank 8th in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense.  They are +27.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average.  Florida is only +13.8 points per game based on the same criteria, meaning UConn is 14 points better.  Yet they are only 4.5-point road favorites tonight, which is a discount.

Florida already has three losses this season and two of them were very concerning.  They lost outright as a 12-point home favorite to Florida Atlantic and were crushed by 29 by West Virginia on a neutral.  They also lost to Xavier by 7 on a neutral.  Their six wins have all come against overmatched competition with five of the wins coming as double-digits favorites.  When they have stepped up in class they have lost, and now they face their toughest opponent to date.

The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Gators are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Connecticut Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +6.5

The Sacramento Kings are finally a legit team this year but oddsmakers are failing to catch up to it.  The Kings are 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They are once again catching too many points tonight at Milwaukee..  The spot is good for the Kings as they come in on two days' rest.

The Bucks have let each of the last four teams hang around and it was against four bad teams, too.  They only beat the Knicks by 6, lost outright to the Lakers at home, only beat the Hornets by 9 and only beat the Magic by 7.  Both the Magic and Hornets are depleted due to injury right now, too.  It will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Bucks tonight as well.

Sacramento is 10-1 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Milwaukee is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following two consecutive road wins.  The Kings are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The Bucks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past two seasons.  They didn't get the wins to show for it last season, but they continually covered inflated numbers.  Now they are starting to get some wins to show for their efforts.

Indeed, the Thunder are 11-13 SU but 15-9 ATS this season and only getting outscored by 0.7 points per game.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Memphis Grizzlies, who are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 points per game on the season.  The Grizzlies are still without one of their best players in Desmond Bane, too, while the Thunder are almost fully healthy.

The Thunder are 41-17-3 ATS in their last 61 games following an ATS win.  Oklahoma City is 36-15 ATS in its last 51 road games.  The Thunder are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with upset road wins at Minnesota and Atlanta and only a 4-point loss at New Orleans.  Take the Thunder Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on SE Missouri State ML +105

Both SE Missouri State and IUPU-Fort Wayne sit at 5-4 this season.  The difference is SE Missouri State has played a much tougher schedule and is clearly the better team, thus they should not be home underdogs to Fort Wayne tonight.

The Redhawks upset South Florida and Evansville on the road and Boston on a neutral.  They only lost by 13 at Bradley and by 7 at Missouri as 21.5-point dogs, a Missouri team that remains undefeated this season.  They have only played two home games, which resulted in wins by 37 and 36 points.

The Mastadons have already played five home games and actually were upset by Detroit, and nearly upset by SIU Edwardsville and Oakland.  They are 1-3 on the highway with their only win coming on a neutral as a favorite against lowly Eastern Michigan.

SE Missouri State is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. team that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Redhawks are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  The Mastadons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take SE Missouri State on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* CBB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Pennsylvania +14.5

Pennsylvania is catching too many points tonight.  The only blowout road losses they suffered came early in the season at Iona and at West Virginia.  Their other four losses have all come by 7 points or fewer, including a 7-point loss at Missouri which remains undefeated.

Villanova is way down this season and should not be laying 14.5-points to Pennsylvania, which is probably the best team in the Ivy League when at full strength, which they are right now.  The Wildcats are just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS this season.  Their three wins came over LaSalle by 13, Delaware State by 10 and Oklahoma by 3.

So the Wildcats haven't won by this margin all season.  They also suffered upset losses to Temple, Iowa State, Portland and Oregon.  Oddsmakers have not caught up to how poor this team is, and that is clearly the case again tonight listing Villanova as a 14.5-point favorite in a rivalry game here against a potent Pennsylvania squad.

Penn is 71-49 ATS in its last 120 games following two consecutive losses.  The Quakers are 47-24 ATS in their last 71 road games vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game.  The Quakers are 59-27 ATS in their last 86 road games vs. teams that average 33 or fewer rebounds per game.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Pennsylvania Wednesday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Sam Houston State +10

Sam Houston State is 7-1 this season with its only loss coming on the road at Nevada.  That includes upset road wins at Oklahoma and at Utah as double-digit underdogs.  Oklahoma is 6-2 this season while Utah just beat Arizona to improve to 7-2 this season.  Nevada is also 7-2 this season.

Oklahoma State is clearly vulnerable this season.  The Cowboys were upset at home by Southern Illinois, upset on a neutral by UCF and lost by 10 at UConn.  They also only beat UT-Arlington by 11 at home and DePaul by 4 on a neutral.  Sam Houston State is more than capable of taking the Cowboys to the wire, so catching double-digits here is too much.

Sam Houston State is +11.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Oklahoma State is 15.3 points per game given the same criteria.  So the Cowboys are only +3.4 points per game better than Sam Houston State, thus this line should not be double-digits even when you adjust for home-court advantage.

Sam Houston State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good shooting teams making 45% or better.  Oklahoma State is 0-6 ATS in its last six December home games.  The Bearkats are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 games overall, including 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games.  Bet Sam Houston State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas-Little Rock +28

Memphis should not be a 28-point favorite over Little Rock tonight.  The Tigers have a way of playing to their level of competition.  They are 6-2 this season but their largest margin of victory has been 19 points.  Now they are asked to lay 28 points to Little Rock.

This despite Little Rock only losing one game by more than 22 points this season despite playing a tough schedule.  They only lost by 19 at Indiana as 28.5-point dogs, and Indiana is better than Memphis.

Memphis is +12.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Little Rock is -10.1 points per game given the same criteria, so 23 points worth than Memphis.  But we don't get to 28 even when adjusting for home-court advantage.  Then you have to factor in the sandwich spot, which shows Memphis coming off a win over Ole Miss and with Auburn on deck Saturday.  They will be looking ahead to that game.

Little Rock is 15-4-2 ATS in its last 21 games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Arkansas-Little Rock Tuesday.

15* CBB Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tarleton State +19.5

Tarleton State has been too good this season to be getting this many points even to Baylor.  The Texans are 5-3 this season with upset wins over Belmont by 8 and Boston College by 16.  They three losses all came to three very good teams and were competitive, losing by 3 at Arizona State as 14-point dogs, by 7 to Drake and by 12 at Wichita State.

Baylor is clearly down this season with two losses already, and the six wins mostly coming against overmatched competition with the exception of a 5-point win over UCLA and a 1-point win over Gonzaga.  They also lost by 26 at Marquette and by 7 to Virginia.  Tarleton is the best team they will have faced outside the Power 5 teams, and I think the Texans give them a run for their money tonight.

Tarleton is +5.4 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Baylor is 16.4 points per game given the same criteria, so 11.0 points per game better than Tarleton.  We don't get to 19.5 points even when we adjust for home-court advantage and strength of schedule here, so there's clearly value on the Texans.

Tarleton State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Baylor is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Roll with Tarleton State Tuesday.

20* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Lakers +5.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are as healthy as they have been all season right now and are starting to play up to their potential as a result.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They continue to be lacking the respect they deserve as 5.5-point underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

Cleveland is banged up and hasn't been playing great for a few weeks now.  They are just 7-8 SU & 6-8-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They should not be 5.5-point home favorites over the Lakers with the way they are playing right now.  Cleveland is 14-39-4 ATS in its last 57 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +10

Wisconsin-Milwaukee is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 7-3 SU this season with two of their losses coming on the road to Purdue and Iowa State, which are two Top 25 opponents and they were competitive with Iowa State.  They also lost by 4 to St. Thomas at home.

Milwaukee should not be catching double-digits tonight considering they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Chattanooga is 5-3 SU this season with three wins by 11 points or more over Oakland City, Covenant and Gardner Webb.  They aren't blowing out any decent teams as they only beat Murray State by 3 and Tennessee Tech by 7.  They also lost outright to Lipscomb at home.

Milwaukee is +4.2 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Chattanooga is +5 points per game given the same criteria, only 0.8 points per game better than Milwaukee.  This line should be much closer to PK than 10.  Milwaukee is 7-0 ATS in its last seven December road games.  Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Kent State +15

Kent State is the most underrated team in the country. The Golden Flashes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-0 ATS this season.  Their two losses came by 2 at College of Charleston as a 2.5-point dog and by 5 at Houston as 19-point dogs.  Houston is 8-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Charleston is 8-1 and also one of the most underrated teams in the country.

If Kent State can play with Houston on the road, it can play with Gonzaga on the road.  Keep in mind the six wins by Kent State have all come by 15 points or more this season, too.  The Golden Flashes are +14.9 points per game versus what their opponents average on offense and defense this season.

Gonzaga is +17.4 points per game given the same criteria, which means they'd only be favored by 2.5 points over Kent State on a neutral if you don't adjust for strength of schedule.  But the Bulldogs are 15-point home favorites here, which is way too high given what we've seen from them thus far.

Gonzaga is one of the most overrated teams in the country at 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS despite being favored in every game but one this season, which was a 19-point loss at Texas.  They only beat Xavier by 4 and Michigan State by 1, while also losing by 16 to Purdue and by 1 to Baylor.  They have played a tough schedule for once early in the season, and they have been exposed.  This is one of the worst Gonzaga teams we've seen in years.

The Golden Flashes are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Kent State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.  The Bulldogs are 3-12-2 ATS n their last 18 games overall.  Gonzaga is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Kent State Monday.

20* Saints/Bucs ESPN No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3.5

This line has been bet down from an opener of -6.5 to -3.5 this week.  That's too big of a move, and now the value is with the Bucs laying the short number at home.  Keep in mind Tampa Bay was a 2.5-point road favorite at New Orleans in their first meeting this season, and is now only a 3.5-point home favorite in the rematch.  That's a 1-point adjustment for home-field advantage when it should be anywhere from 4 to 6 points.

Both teams have been hit hard by injuries this season, but I still think the Bucs are better off in that department.  Brady has all of his top playmakers healthy and ready to go.  The defense still remains one of the best units in the league.  The offensive line is a problem, but they can scheme around it, and Brady is the best at getting the most out of an offensive line.

The Saints are broken on offense and cannot be trusted.  They have scored 13 or fewer points in three of their last four games and were just shut out by the 49ers last time out.  Now they must take on an elite Tampa Bay defense that ranks 6th in scoring defense at 18.5 points per game, 9th in total defense at 315.2 yards per game and 8th at 5.0 yards per play.  The Bucs are better on both sides of the football in this one.

New Orleans is a tired team right now as they have yet to have their bye week.  Tampa Bay just had its bye week prior to losing at Cleveland last week, so they should still be pretty fresh for this one.  The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five Monday games.

Plays on any team (Tampa Bay) - after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 79-38 (67.5%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Bucs Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat ML +110

The Miami Heat are finally getting healthy and it's starting to show in their play.  They have won four of their last five games overall and are coming off an upset win at Boston in Jimmy Butler's return from injury.  Now they have had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Grizzlies, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 122-112 win in Detroit Sunday.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Grizzlies yesterday.  I like the spot when I released this pick this morning, but I love it even more now given the injury report that has come out for the Grizzlies since.

Memphis will be without Desmond Bane, Danny Green, Ziaire Williams, Jake LaRavia and Jaren Jackson Jr. tonight.  Both JA Morant and John Konchar are questionable.  The Heat will have no problem blowing out the Grizzlies given who they will be putting out on the court tonight.

Miami is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games following three consecutive road games.  Take the Heat on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors PK

The Toronto Raptors are as healthy as they've been all season with their six best players in Siakam, Anunoby, VanVleet, Trent Jr, Barnes and Boucher all healthy right now.  Five of the six have missed at least three games this season, so that is important.  I think they are ready to take down the Boston Celtics tonight.

Boston is in a terrible spot, while it's a favorable one for the Raptors, who had yesterday off.  The Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They just won 103-92 in Brooklyn last night after losing in OT to the Heat the game prior.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight.  Al Horford is out while Malcolm Brogdon is questionable tonight.

The Raptors are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  The Raptors are 16-6 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  Roll with the Raptors Monday.

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +6

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past two seasons.  They didn't get the wins to show for it last season, but they continually covered inflated numbers.  Now they are starting to get some wins to show for their efforts.

Indeed, the Thunder are 10-13 SU but 14-9 ATS this season and only getting outscored by 1.0 points per game.  Let's just compare that to the Hawks, who are 13-10 SU but 10-12-1 ATS and only outscoring opponents by 0.7 points per game this season.  Given those numbers, the Thunder should not be catching 6 points here.

Now you have to factor in that the Thunder are fully healthy right now while the Hawks are not.  They are without John Collins, and both Trae Young and DeAndre Hunter are questionable tonight.  I assume Young is playing or this line wouldn't be this high, but the fact that he's hampered by a shoulder injury is not good for the Hawks.

The Thunder are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Oklahoma City is 40-17-3 ATS in its last 60 games following an ATS win.  The Thunder are 24-11 ATS in the last 35 meetings, and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 trips to Atlanta.  Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following an upset win as an underdog.  Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams that make 33% or less.  Take the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

This line is short due to the Sacramento Kings playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 123-96 win over the Clippers yesterday.  But they had two days off prior to that game, and no starter played more than 30 minutes for the Kings due to the blowout win.  They will still be very fresh and ready to go for the Bulls tonight.

Chicago is one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA.  They have gone just 9-13 SU and are 1-3 SU in their last four games with road losses to the Thunder, Suns and Warriors.  They weren't really even competitive with Phoenix or Golden State, and they won't be competitive with Sacramento, either.

Plays against road underdogs (Chicago) - following two or more consecutive road losses against an opponent that is off a road win by 10 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Kings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on zero rest.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pistons OVER 228.5

The Detroit Pistons have gone way OVER the total in consecutive games.  They combined for 250 points with New York and then 256 points with Dallas in a OT game that was still at 234 at the end of regulation.  It think we easily get up and OVER 228.5 in this matchup with the Grizzlies.

Memphis has scored 115 or more points in five of its last nine games overall.  Memphis has allowed at least 109 points in seven consecutive games.  Memphis and Detroit combined for 239 points in their most recent meetings.

The OVER is 14-4 in Pistons last 18 non-conference home games.  The OVER is 9-3-1 in Pistons last 13 home games.  The Pistons rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 115.8 points per 100 possessions.  Memphis is only 19th in defensive efficiency.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nebraska/Creighton OVER 141

Creighton is an elite offensive team that is coring 81.7 points per game on 49.8% shooting this season.  The Bluejays will carry the heavy lifting in helping us cash this OVER ticket.  The Huskers average 70.7 points per game on 46.7% shooting an can do their part, too.

My favorite angle on this play is the head-to-head history.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings as Creighton and Nebraska have combined for 146, 172, 171 and 179 points in the last four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 167 combined points per game, which is 26 points more than this 141-point total.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Chiefs/Bengals AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53

This game has shootout written all over it between two of the best offenses in the NFL.  We are going to get the right conditions for a shootout in Cincinnati as well with the forecast calling for temps in the 40's, sunny skies, only 6 MPH wind and zero chance of precipitation.

Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 430 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play.  Cincinnati ranks 5th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game and those numbers would be even better if they were healthy on offense all season.  Well, reinforcements are on the way this week as both WR Ja'Marr Chase and RB Joe Mixon return from injury in time for this huge showdown with Kansas City.

The return of those two cannot be overstated.  Chase has 47 receptions for 605 yards and six touchdowns in only seven games this season.  Mixon has 605 rushing yards and six touchdowns, while also catching 41 balls for 314 yards and two scores.  Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL already, and now he has his full allotment of weapons this week.

Last year Cincinnati won a 34-31 over Kansas City shootout at home while racking up 475 yards and allowing 414 yards.  Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 51 or more combined points, including 55 or more in three of those.  The OVER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine road games.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in Bengals last six games overall.  Kansas City is 7-0 OVER in its last seven road games vs. teams that complete 64% of their passes or better.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Dolphins/49ers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins are are perfect 8-0 SU in games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa this season.  That includes upset wins over the Ravens and Bills.  And now I think they have a great shot of upsetting the San Francisco 49ers this week.

Miami got out to a 30-0 lead over the Houston Texans in the first half last week before calling off the dogs.  They rested their starters in the second half of that game and it was a misleading 30-15 final as a result.  But resting starters in the second half also keeps them fresher for this game against the 49ers.  They had a bye the previous week after beating the Browns 39-17 the week prior.  So they are as fresh as they can be right now.

The 49ers needed a last-minute stop to beat the Chargers by 6 three weeks ago, then went into Mexico City and beat up on a banged up Arizona team on Monday Night Football before a 13-0 win over the Saints last week.  Miraculously, they shut out the Saints despite New Orleans having the ball inside the San Francisco 25-yard line three times in the second half.  They missed a FG, fumbled and turned it over on downs.  That was closer than a 13-0 game as the 49ers only outgained the Saints by 57 yards.

No question the 49ers have an elite defense and one of the best stop units in the NFL.  But I just don't trust their offense to get margin.  This line should be San Francisco -3 at the most.  Jimmy G is still no more than a game manager.  And three key playmakers on offense are banged up and either out or questionable in Deebo Samuel, Christan McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell.

The 49ers have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses this season.  When they actually faced a top offense in the Chiefs they gave up 44 points in a 21-point loss.  I think they will struggle to handle all this speed the Dolphins offer.  Tyreke Hill already has 87 receptions, 1,233 yards and four touchdowns while Jaylen Waddle has 56 receptions, 963 yards and six scores.  And you know Miami RB's Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert will be extra motivated for this game after the 49ers traded both of them away.  They have combined for 1,220 rushing yards and seven scores and have been a fantastic two-headed monster.

The 49ers don't have much of a home-field advantage, and I think them being at home is being factored into this line too much.  The Dolphins are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following an ATS win.  Again, Miami is 8-0 SU in games started and finished by Tua this season.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Los Angeles Rams are the worst team in the NFL in their current form.  And that's crazy to say coming from a team that just won the Super Bowl.  But the fact of the matter is they are without their three best players in Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp.  They are also without Allen Robinson and playing with three replacement-level receivers.  Their entire offensive line is replacement-level, too.

The Rams have gone 0-5 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost by 17 to the 49ers, by 3 to the Bucs, by 10 to the Cardinals, by 7 to the Saints and by 16 to the Chiefs.  They were held to 198 total yards against the Chiefs last week playing with third-string QB Bryce Perkins.  It won't get any better for their offense this week even against a suspect Seattle defense.  They can load up at the line of scrimmage because Perkins isn't going to be able to beat them through the air.  He is averaging just 2.8 passing yards per attempt, and the Rams rank dead last in pass blocking efficiency.

I love the spot for the Seahawks.  They are coming off two consecutive tough losses to the Bucs and Raiders.  They had a bye in between so they should still be fresh.  And the two losses in a row assure they won't have a letdown here against the Rams, which is what it would take for them to even be competitive.  Pete Carroll is an impressive 19-4 SU & 19-3-1 ATS following two consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle.

The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games and they will struggle to slow down this impressive Seattle offense, especially without their best player in Aaron Donald clogging up the middle.  This will be the first game he has missed this season.  Seattle ranks 4th in scoring offense at 26.5 points per game and 4th at 6.0 yards per play.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, too.

The Seahawks are 41-20-4 ATS in their last 65 games following a loss.  The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and will have zero home-field advantage given the current state of this team, which fans are not excited about.  I think it will feel more like a home game for Seattle.  Carroll is 6-0 ATS after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in two consecutive games as the coach of Seattle with the Seahawks winning by 14.1 points per game in this spot.  Roll with the Seahawks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +22

It's time to 'sell high' on the Missouri Tigers.  They are 8-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  They have played seven home games against bottom feeders and earned an 88-84 win at Wichita State last time out.  It's now a sandwich spot for the Tigers with Kansas on deck.

I think the Tigers will be flat for this one, and I think SE Missouri State is good enough to hang within 22 points today.  They are 5-3 on the season which includes an upset win at South Florida as an 11-point dog, an upset win at Evansville as a 2-point dog and a 13-point loss at Bradley.  They haven't lost a game by more than 16 points this season.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Missouri) - after covering five or six of their last seven, a top team (80% or better) against a good team (60% to 80%) are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Redhawks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Redhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet SE Missouri State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -1

The New Orleans Pelicans are rolling right now and should be more than 1-point home favorites over the Denver Nuggets today.  The Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-2 AS in their last 10 games overall.  Their two losses came to Boston and Memphis.

The Denver Nuggets are also 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, but they have been feasting on a weak schedule beating the Thunder in OT, the short-handed Clippers and the Rockets twice.  They lost by 8 at Atlanta.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Sunday.

20* St. John's/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. John's +7

Iowa State has been overvalued since an upset win over then-No. 1 UNC and also an upst win over Villanova the game prior.  Well, both those blue bloods are down this season as UNC has lost three straight, and Villanova is 3-5 this season.

The Cyclones have since failed to cover two in a row losing by 18 to UConn as 5.5-point dogs and only beating a bad North Dakota team by 19 as 24.5-point favorites.  They should not be favored by 7 over St. John's today.

The Red Storm are 8-0 this season with wins over Syracuse, Temple and Nebraska.  I know they have played the easier schedule, but this is a veteran team that got some great transfers and is better than they are getting credit for here with this lack of respect as 7-point dogs.

St. John's is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.  Bet St. John's Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on North Carolina +1

This is a great 'buy low' opportunity on the UNC Tar Heels.  They were the No. 1 ranked team in the country until losing three straight to Iowa State, Alabama and Indiana.  Now we are getting them as underdogs to a Virginia Tech team that will be a big step down in class for the Tar Heels.

Virginia Tech is 7-1 against one of the easiest schedule in the country.  They lost to College of Charleston, and their seven wins have come against Delaware State, Lehigh, William & Mary, Old Dominion (by 4), Penn State (by 2), Charleston Southern (by 5) and Minnesota.  This will be their toughest test yet, and it's worth noting UNC beat College of Charleston by 16.

Virginia Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Tar Heels are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with North Carolina Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Lions OVER 50.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 8th in total offense at 362.9 yards per game and 8th at 5.8 yards per play.  The Lions are dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 414.5 yards per game and 32nd at 6.3 yards per play.

The Jaguars haven't exactly been stopping anyone, either.  They rank 21st in allowing 5.7 yards per play this season.  But they have gotten their offense going in recent weeks with 27 points three weeks ago against the Raiders and 28 against the Ravens last week.  I see both teams getting 28-plus in this one, and we only need a 27-24 final to cash this OVER ticket.

The Lions have really been an OVER team of late because they have gotten healthy on offense.  They have scored 25, 31 and 31 points in their last three games overall.  Detroit's five non-divisional home games have all seen 53 or more combined points and an average of 68 combined points per game.

The OVER is 6-1 in Jaguars last seven road games.  The OVER is 9-4 in Lions last 13 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jets/Vikings OVER 44.5

The Minnesota Vikings are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have a very good offense that has recently put up 33 points against New England and 33 against Buffalo in two of their last three games.  But their defense has been terrible all season, especially of late.  They rank 31st in total defense at 390.7 yards per game allowed and 31st at 6.1 yards per play.  They have allowed 32 points per game in their last three games and just gave up 26 points and 409 yards to a bad Patriots offense last week.

The Jets were an UNDER team in the first half of the season, but the switch to Mike White at quarterback has rejuvenated this offense.  He went 22-of-29 for 308 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-10 win over Chicago last week.  He has his full compliment of weapons at receiver with Cory Davis back healthy to go with the underrated duo of Wilson and Moore.  White will light up this Minnesota defense, too.

The Jets have a great defense, but they have also benefited from a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They faced the Bears and a backup QB last week, the Patriots twice, the Broncos, the Packers, the Dolphins without Tua and the Steelers.  They did hold the Bills in check, but that's a division opponent they are familiar with.  Against the three other top offenses they faced they gave up 24 points to the Ravens, 30 to the Browns and 27 to the Bengals.  Minnesota can get 24-plus in this one pretty easily.

Minnesota's six home games this season have seen an average of 49.2 combined points per game.  The Vikings are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 home games.  The OVER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 games on fieldturf.  The OVER is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 games after rushing for fewer than 90 yards last game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Warriors OVER 232

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in the NBA in pace and 9th in offensive efficiency.  They have scored at least 119 points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  But they are slacking on defense coming off a championship season, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.

Houston is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Rockets rank 12th in pace so they like to push the tempo.  They rank 28th in defensive efficiency as they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  But they do have some talent on offense and like to play small ball, which favors the OVER.  The Rockets have scored at least 113 points in five of their last six games, while allowing 120 or more points in five of their last six.

These teams just met on November 20th two weeks ago with the Warriors winning 127-120 for 247 combined points.  And we only need 232 here, so there's value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +17

This is a terrible spot for Michigan.  The Wolverines just went on the road and upset the Ohio State Buckeyes to shock the country.  It was their first win in Columbus in 22 years.  That win punched their ticket into the four-team playoff regardless of whether they lose this game to Purdue or not.  As a result, I don't think they will be fully motivated, and that's going to make it tough for them to cover this inflated number.

This is exactly the role that I like to back Jeff Brohm.  He is great as a big underdog.  Brohm is 22-11 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Purdue.  Brohm is 15-3 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of the Boilermakers.  Brohm is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Purdue.  Brohm is 9-1 ATS after winning six or seven of his last eight games as a head coach.

Purdue star QB Aidan O'Connell lost his brother but still played in a 30-16 win at Indiana to punch Purdue's ticket into the title game.  Players will rally around him, and they'll be extra motivated to win this game for their humble quarterback who just does things the right way, earning his spot as a walk on.  He is completing 63.8% of his passes for 3,115 yards with a 22-to-11 TD/INT ratio this season.  He has formed a great chemistry with former high school teammate Charlie Jones, who has 97 receptions for 1,199 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Michigan will gets its points, but Purdue's defense is good enough to hold them in check.  The Boilermakers have an underrated stop unit allowing 23.1 points per game and 347 yards per game.  This game will be played in a dome in Indianapolis, which favors this Purdue offense as well.  Any time the conditions have been perfect this Purdue offense has thrived.  The only few games they struggled they were either without O'Connell or playing in a ton of wind outdoors.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Purdue/Michigan OVER 51.5

It will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game.  I think both teams will be playing pretty freely.  Michigan already knows it will be going to the four-team playoff win or lose, while Purdue is just happy to be here after winning the Big Ten West.  I expect both offenses to thrive, and both defenses to struggle in this one.

Purdue has lit up the scoreboard when Aidan O'Connell has been healthy and the weather conditions have been good.  Keep in mind the only game they played in a dome this season they lost 29-32 at Syracuse for 62 combined points.  They had 485 total yards in that defeat to the Orange early in the season.  The Boilermakers haven't faced an offense as good as Michigan, either.  They lost a 31-35 shootout to Penn State and beat Maryland 31-29 in two games against the two best offenses they have faced.

Michigan has yet to play in a dome this season, but we just saw them put up 45 points and 532 total yards against Ohio State on the road.  They have played a weak schedule of opposing offenses this season, and certainly not many passing attacks as good as this Purdue pass attack.  They beat Maryland 34-27 for 61 combined points, combined with Penn State for 58 points and combined for 68 points with Ohio State against the three best offenses they have faced.

Michigan is 13-3 OVER in its last 16 games as a neutral field favorite.  Harbaugh is 6-0 OVER as a neutral field favorite as the coach of Michigan.  The OVER is 8-1 in Boilermakers last nine games following an ATS win.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2.5

Missouri State has only played two home games this season.  They have one of the better home-court advantages in the country and won their two home games by an average of 29.5 points per game.  Now they play their MVC home opener against Bradley, which is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS away from home this season and losing by 18.0 points per game.

Bradley lost by 22 at Utah State, by 21 on a neutral to Auburn and by 11 on a neutral to Liberty.  Missouri State beat a very good Middle Tennessee team by 24 at home.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as Missouri State is 21-5 SU in its last 26 home meetings with Bradley.  The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Braves with three wins by 15 points or more.

The Braves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  Bradley is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bears are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on North Dakota +16

Portland just got to play Michigan State, Villanova and UNC in a tournament in Portland.  They were flat in their 100-79 win over Multnomah Bible in the game following that tournament, and I still think they'll be lacking motivation here against North Dakota to win this game by margin.

North Dakota is playing very well of late.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They upset Elon as 6.5-point road dogs, upset Utah Tech by 15 as 3.5-point home dogs, upset CS-Fullerton by 16 as 5.5-point dogs and covered in a 19-point loss at Iowa State as 24-point dogs.

Portland is 2-18-1 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Pilots are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after a combined score of 165 points or more.  The Fighting Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take North Dakota Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pacific +10.5

Pacific has some impressive results despite the 3-5 record.  They only lost by 10 at Stanford as 15-point dogs, upset North Dakota State as 5.5-point road dogs and crushed North Dakota by 30 on the road.  They also upset Cal Davis as 6-point road dogs, so they have played their best away from home going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS.  Their four home losses all came by 4 point or less, too, so they haven't lost a game by more than 10 points this season.

Now they are catching double-digits here against a UC-Santa Barbara team that is clearly overvalued.  They have gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost outright by 9 as 9-point favorites at Northern Arizona, only won by 13 over Hampton as 17.5-point home favorites, won by 18 over North Alabama as 18-point home favorites, and lost by 11 at Duquesne as 3.5-point dogs.

Pacific beat UC-Santa Barbara 80-71 as 4.5-point home dogs in their lone meeting last season.  The Gauchos are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Pacific Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Providence/Rhode Island UNDER 133

Providence ranks 265th in adjusted tempo this season while Rhode Island ranks 197th.  Both like to play in the half court.  And with this being a rivalry game, the defensive intensity will be maxed out, thus I think we get an UNDER here.

Rhode Island is really struggling on offense this season.  The score 62.9 points per game on 37.4% shooting including 24.6% from 3-point range.  They only average four made 3-pointers per game.  They rank 261st in adjusted offense.  But they do defend well, holding opponents to 64.7 points per game on 41.6% shooting.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 118, 136 and 109 points.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Friars last four games following a loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Kings/Clippers NBA Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 227.5

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 4th in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.  Any total below 230 is low for a game involving the Sacramento Kings.

The Los Angeles Clippers may be getting back both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George from injury today to boost their offense.  They will have no problem getting into a shootout with the Kings either way.  10 of Sacramento's last 13 games have seen 229 or more combined points.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going over the total in their previous game, a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against a bad defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 73-34 (68.2%) since 1996.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Fresno State +3.5

Jake Haener is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  Fresno State is 5-0 in his five starts since returning from injury while outscoring the opposition by a total of 110 points and by an average of 22.0 points per game to punch their tickets into the Mountain West Championship Game for a rematch with Boise State.

Haener is completing 73.5% of his passes for 2,432 yards with a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio in only eight games this season.  Keep in mind Haener did not play in their 40-20 loss at Boise State in their first meeting.  His presence is going to make all the difference for the Bulldogs, and I fully expect them to win this game outright.

Boise State was fortunate to beat both Wyoming and Utah State in its final two games of the season.  They won 20-17 at Wyoming as 14.5-point favorites, the same Wyoming team that Fresno just beat 30-0.  Last week they were leading by 5 against Utah State in the final minutes and got a red zone stop.   They promptly rushed 91 yards for a TD and got a pick-6 to turn a 5-point game into a 19-point game, and one of the worst beats in history for Utah State +17 backers like myself.  That misleading final is definitely playing into this line.  They gave up 468 yards to Utah State.

While the return of Haener has been huge for the Bulldogs, the play of their defense has been just as important during their current seven-game winning streak.  They won two games without Haener by holding San Jose State to 10 points and New Mexico to 9.  They are allowing just 14.9 points per game in their last seven games.  I think getting a second chance at this Boise State offense, this defense will be much more prepared and won't be caught by surprise by dual-threat QB Taylen Green.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Fresno State) - a good offensive team (390-440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG), after allowing 3.75 yards per play or fewer in their previous game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1992.  The Bulldogs are 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games following an ATS win.  The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with Fresno State Saturday.

20* Bulls/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the NBA in pace and 9th in offensive efficiency.  They have scored at least 124 points in four of their last six games and the OVER is 4-0 in their last four games overall.  But they are slacking on defense coming off a championship season, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.

The Chicago Bulls are lighting up the scoreboard of late as well scoring at least 113 points in five consecutive games.  But they have allowed 107 or more points in nine consecutive games.  They rank in the top half of the league in pace so they will enjoy getting up and down the court with the Warriors tonight to try and keep pace.

The OVER is 28-11 in Bulls last 39 road games after trailing their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime.  They gave up 132 points to the Suns last time out in a game that saw 245 combined points.  We'll see a similar shootout tonight against the Warriors.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Suns OVER 229.5

The Phoenix Suns are just rolling offensively right now.  They have scored at least 112 points in eight of their last nine games and are coming off 132 and 122-point efforts in their last two games against the Bulls and Kings, respectively.  They have allowed at least 112 points in eight of their last 11 games as well.

Houston is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Rockets rank 9th in pace so they like to push the tempo.  They rank 28th in defensive efficiency as they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  But they do have some talent on offense and like to play small ball, which favors the OVER.  Phoenix ranks 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between Houston and Phoenix with combined scores of 233 or more points in six of those seven meetings.  The OVER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Phoenix.  The OVER is 9-1 in Rockets last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 6-1 in Suns last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Utah/USC Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on OVER 66.5

Utah and USC played in a 43-42 shootout in their first meeting this season for 85 combined points and 1,118 yards between them.  That game was played outdoors in the elements in Salt Lake City, and this one will be played indoors in the dome at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.  It should be another shootout between these teams in the Pac-12 Championship rematch.

USC has scored at least 38 points in six consecutive games and averages 42.5 points points per game, 508 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play on the season.  No team has more talent on offense than the Trojans.  That's how they have been able to get away with a poor defense that allows 405 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on the season.  Caleb Williams is the Heisman front-runner with 65.8% completions and a 34-to-3 TD/INT ratio, to go along with 351 rushing yards and 10 scores.

Utah has been much more offensive-minded than normal this season.  The Utes average 39.4 points per game, 468 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  That's impressive considering star QB Cam Rising even missed a game where they only scored 21 points against Washington State.  Riding is completing 66.4% of his passes with 22 touchdowns, while also rushing for 392 yards and six scores.  He'll be able to match Williams and USC score for score.

The OVER is 6-0 in Trojans last six games overall with 65 or more combined points in all six, and 72 or more combined points in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +8.5

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They are coming off a 121-134 loss in Boston on Wednesday.  Now they get their chance at revenge here just two days later again in Boston Friday.  At the very least I like their chances of staying within this 8.5-point spread and possibly pulling off the upset.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Celtics.  They have won 14 of their last 15 games overall and have won and covered five straight.  If they were going to have a letdown, this would be the spot after just beating the Heat by 13 two nights ago.

Injuries are working in Miami's favor here, too.  Jimmy Butler makes his return from a knee injury tonight, and Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are all probable for the Heat tonight.  This is as healthy as they have been in a long time, and they are one of the better teams in the East when fully healthy.

Miami is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 trips to Boston.  The Heat are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when playing with double-revenge against an opponent.  Roll with the Heat Friday.

15* Akron/Buffalo MAC Early ANNIHILATOR on Akron +12

The Akron Zips have quietly gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 7 to Central Michigan as 12-point dogs, lost by 6 at Kent State as 16-point dogs while outgaining them by 37 yards, lost by 18 to Miami Ohio despite outgaining them by 128 yards, lost by 6 to Eastern Michigan as 6.5-point dogs despite outgaing them by 41 yards and crushed Northern Illinois by 32 as 9.5-point dogs while outgaining them by 251 yards.

So, Akron has outgained four consecutive opponents by a total of 457 yards and by an average of 114.3 yards per game.  This despite being underdogs in all four games!  This team is much better than they get credit for.  They just racked up 512 yards on Northern Illinois with a backup QB, so I'm not concerned whether or not DJ Irons plays in this game as he's questionable.  Backup Undercuffler threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns against NIU.

Buffalo has all the pressure on its shoulders.  The Bulls were sitting at 5-3 needing just one win in to clinch a bowl berth.  Instead, they have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with a 21-point loss at Ohio, a 4-point loss at Central Michigan and a 3-point home loss to Kent State.  That home loss to Kent State was brutal last week.  They led by 14 with 7 minutes left and lost in overtime to a backup quarterback for the Golden Flashes, who had nothing to play for at 4-7 on the season coming in.

I don't know how Buffalo gets back up off the mat after that crushing OT loss to Kent State.  I know they will be feeling the pressure, and this team simply isn't that good when you look at the numbers.  They are getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play on the season, averaging just 5.0 yards per play on offense and giving up 6.2 yards per play on defense.  Even Akron has a better yards per play differential than Buffalo.  The Zips will be free-rolling in this game with no pressure at all.

Buffalo is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a loss to a conference opponent.  The Bulls are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Buffalo is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU loss.  Take Akron Friday.

15* Arizona/Utah Pac-12 ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -6.5

The Arizona Wildcats are 6-0 this season behind an elite offense that is scoring 97.5 points per game on 60.3% shooting and 45% from 3-point range.  The Wildcats rank 3rd in adjusted offense and 1st in adjusted tempo and will run the Utah Utes out of the gym tonight.  They are also 43rd in adjusted defense.

Utah is off to a 5-2 start this season against a much softer schedule than Arizona has faced.  They lost to Mississippi State on a neutral and only beat Georgia Tech by 4 on a neutral.  But the concerning loss was the 10-point home loss to Sam Houston State as 10-point favorites.  And I give them zero chance of hanging around with the Wildcats in this one.

Arizona crushed Utah in both meetings last season winning 82-64 at home as 19-point favorites and 97-77 on the road as 11-point favorites.  So when comparing the spreads of both meetings last season, we are getting a discount here on the Wildcats as only 6.5-point road favorites.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

20* Bills/Patriots AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo -3

The Buffalo Bills did not punt once in their final two meetings with the New England Patriots last season.  They won the final regular season meeting 33-21 on the road while outgaining the Patriots 428 to 288.  They won 47-17 in the playoffs while outgaining the Patriots 482 to 305.

Sure, the Patriots pulled the upset in Buffalo in the first meeting last season, but that was mostly weather related as the conditions were terrible and windy.  Well, the conditions will be nearly perfect for a game in New England for this time of year with 32 degrees, only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation in the forecast.

The Bills are the better team, period.  They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 415.9 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  The Patriots are 18th in scoring offense at 21.7 points per game, 21st in total offense at 325.9 yards per game and 17th at 5.4 yards per play.  These teams are almost dead even in defensive stats this season, but the edge the Bills have on offense should warrant them being more than 3-point favorites here.  

The road team is 19-7-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  I recommend buying the Bills down from -3.5 to -3 -130 or better.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

20* Bills/Patriots AFC East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 43.5

The Buffalo Bills did not punt once in their final two meetings with the New England Patriots last season.  They won the final regular season meeting 33-21 for 54 combined points on the road while outgaining the Patriots 428 to 288.  They won 47-17 for 64 combined points in the playoffs while outgaining the Patriots 482 to 305.

Sure, the Patriots pulled the upset in Buffalo in the first meeting last season, but that was mostly weather related as the conditions were terrible and windy.  Well, the conditions will be nearly perfect for a game in New England for this time of year with 32 degrees, only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation in the forecast.

The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 415.9 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  They are going to get their points, and the Patriots are going to have to throw the ball more than they want to to try and stay in this game.  This is such a low total for a game involving Buffalo.  In fact, this 43.5-point total is the lowest of the season for a Buffalo game.  That fact alone shows there's value with the OVER.

Mac Jones is coming off one of the best games of his career.  He led the Patriots to 26 points against the Vikings while throwing for 364 yards.  Unfortunately, they lost that game by 7 as their defense proved vulnerable giving up 33 points to the Vikings.  And we saw the Vikings and Bills play in a shootout recently that saw 63 combined points.

New England is 18-4 OVER in its last 22 home games after passing for more than 350 yards in its previous game.  Buffalo is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after winning six or seven of its last eight games.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Mavs/Pistons NBA TV No-Brainer on Detroit +8

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season a 110-140 home loss to the New York Knicks.  But they were competitive in their previous eight games, going 6-1-1 ATS in those eight games with an 8-point loss to Cleveland, a 6-point loss at Phoenix, an upset win at Utah, an upset win at Denver, an 8-point loss at Sacramento, a 7-point loss at the Lakers, a 5-point loss at the Clippers and a 4-point loss to the Raptors.

So that blowout loss to the Knicks was the aberration, not the norm.  They hadn't lost any of their previous 10 games by double-digits.  They won't be losing by double-digits to the Mavericks tonight, either.  Look for an inspired effort from the Pistons off that loss, and it's worth noting they are as healthy as they have been in a long time now.

This looks like a letdown spot for the Mavericks off their upset 3-point home win over the Warriors last time out.  Keep in mind the Mavericks had gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their previous four games.  In fact, the Mavericks are now just 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have just one win by double-digits in their last 18 games overall.  They aren't blowing anyone out right now.

Dallas is 0-9 ATS following a win this season.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Roll with the Pistons Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacers/Kings OVER 238.5

Both the Sacramento Kings and Indiana Pacers are dead nuts OVER teams.  Sacramento ranks 7th in pace while Indiana ranks 3rd.  Sacramento ranks 4th in offensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 16th.  Sacramento ranks 27th in defensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 19th.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Kings last seven home games.  The Kings and their opponents have combined for at least 237 points in each of their last six home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets +12

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be motivated for revenge from a 113-129 loss at Denver on Monday.  Now they get their shot at revenge in Denver again here two days later, and oddsmakers hasn't adjusted for the revenge factor considering Denver was an 11.5-point favorite in the first meeting and is now a 12-point favorite in the rematch.

The Rockets were playing well coming into that game.  They had gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games.  They only lost by 7 to Golden State as 11-point dogs, upset Atlanta by 6 as 8-point dogs and upset Oklahoma City by 13 as 2-point dogs.  They only trailed Denver by 2 at halftime, too.

I'll gladly fade the Nuggets tonight.  They won't be motivated at all to beat this team again.  They'll be lucky to get out of here with a win, let alone cover this 12-point spread due to their lack of motivation.  I also can't see them shooting 56.8% from the field again like they did in that first meeting and they still struggled to cover.

Denver is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  Plays against any team (Denver) - following two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 46-20 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets tonight given the terrible spot for them.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Indiana -4

Southern Indiana has been impressive this season going 3-3 against the 27th-toughest schedule in the country.  They only lost by 6 at Missouri as 19.5-point dogs, by 12 at Notre Dame as 14.5-point dogs and by 14 at St. Bonaventure.  They also went on the road and upset Bowling Green by 12, upset Southern Illinois by 18 at home as 9.5-point dogs and crushed Loras by 32.

Western Illinois opened the season with an upset win at Illinois State and a blowout home win over Rockford.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS since with a 12-point loss at DePaul, a 33-point loss at UCF, a 24-point home loss to Youngstown State and an upset road loss at UTRGV.  They aren't very good.

Southern Indiana is +4.6 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow this season, while Western Illinois is -7.5 points per game.  So Southern Indiana is +12.1 points per game better than Western Illinois, and that doesn't even factor in their much tougher strength of schedule.  Southern Indiana should be much closer to a 10-point favorite tonight.

Western Illinois is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games overall, including 0-6 ATS in its last six home games.  This team has almost zero home-court advantage with how terrible they have been.  Roll with Southern Indiana Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota/Iowa State UNDER 133

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team again this season.  The Cyclones rank 237th in adjusted tempo and 29th in defensive efficiency.  They play a North Dakota team tonight that also prefers to slow it down ranking 273rd in adjusted tempo.  This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight.

Iowa State is holding opponents to 16.6 points per game less than their season averages this season.  The Cyclones are holding foes to 37.8% shooting, which is nearly 8% less than their season averages.  Iowa State only shoots 29.7% from 3-point range this season and isn't a good shooting team.

Iowa State is 17-5 UNDER in its last 22 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Cyclones last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Cyclones last five home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Nets OVER 224.5

Ben Simmons is a good defender and gives Brooklyn almost nothing on offense.  He is out tonight, meaning Kyrie Irving will likely take over the ball-handling duties.  Irving is a dead nuts OVER player as he is one of the best scorers in the NBA and one of the worst defenders.

The Washington Wizards are really starting to get in a groove offensively now with both Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis healthy.  They followed up 121 points at Boston with 142 points at home against Minnesota.  They also gave up 130 points to the Celtics and 127 to the Timberwolves and have now allowed at least 110 points in four consecutive games.

The OVER is 4-0 in Wizards last four games overall.  The OVER is 23-10-1 in Wizards last 34 games following a win.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on VCU PK

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the VCU Rams tonight.  They are 4-2 SU but 0-5 ATS this season with their two losses coming to Memphis and Arizona State.  The Rams are 3-0 at home this season and winning by 11.7 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, so this is a gift getting them at a PK against Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt is a rebuilding team that lost their best player in Scotty Pippen Jr. (20.4 PPG) from last season.  They are off to a 3-3 start this season with home losses to Memphis and Southern MIss as well as a neutral loss to St. Mary's.  All three losses came by 9 points or more.  Their three wins have come against Temple, Fresno and Morehead State.  They also have four players questionable due to injury or illness tonight.  Bet VCU Wednesday.

15* Wyoming/Santa Clara Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Santa Clara -7

I like this Santa Clara team.  They are off to a 5-2 SU & 4-2 ATS start this season with all five wins coming by 8 points or more including neutral court wins over DePaul by 8 and Iona by 10.  Their two losses came on a neutral to UCF and on the road at Utah State.  They are 3-0 at home this season and are an elite offensive team.

But as much as I like Santa Clara, this is more of a play against Wyoming than anything.  They are without their two best players tonight in Hunter Maldanado (18.7 PPG last year, 14.7 PPG this year) and Graham Ike (19.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG last year).  They also could be without their second-leading scorer this season in Max Agbonkpolo (9.6 PPG), who is questionable today.

It's not wonder Wyoming is off to such a terrible start this season playing the entire way without Ike.  They are 3-3 SU & 0-4 ATS with their three wins coming against Colorado Christian, Nicholls State and Howard.  They lost outright at home as a 21.5-point favorite to SE Louisiana, lost to Drake and lost to Boston College by 11.  I see no way they can keep this game competitive against Santa Clara without Maldanado and Ike.

Santa Clara is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a combined score of 155 points or more.  Wyoming is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  Bet Santa Clara Wednesday.

15* Baylor/Marquette FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Marquette +6.5

Marquette is 5-2 this season with its two losses coming to Purdue by 5 on the road and to Mississippi State by 3 on a neutral.  All five wins came by double-digits.  Well, Purdue and Mississippi State are a combined 13-0 this season.  Purdue just beat Duke by 19, Gonzaga by 18 and West Virginia by 12.  That 5-point loss looks real good now.

Baylor should not be a 6.5-point road favorite over Marquette tonight.  The Bears have faced such an easy schedule outside of their split with Virginia and UCLA in their tournament.  They lost to Virginia by 7 and beat UCLA by 5.  This will be the Bears' first true road game this season.

Marquette is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Baylor is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Golden Eagles are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Marquette is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with Marquette Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Tarleton State -7

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with a 95-49 win over Kansas Christian, an 89-81 upset win over Belmont and a 70-54 upset win over Boston College.  The Texans then hung tough with Drake in a 7-point loss at 7-point dogs, and that's a Drake team that most expect to win the Missouri Valley.  They did lost by 12 at Wichita State, but now they are back home for just the second time this season and take a big step down in class here against Weber State.

Weber State has been a massive disappointment this season at 2-4 SU & 1-4 ATS.  You could see it coming though with just one returning starter and a lack of experience.  They lost by 17 at Washington, by 25 at Colorado State, by 7 to Riverside on a neutral and by 22 to Wright State on a neutral.  I have a hard time seeing them stay within 7 points of Tarleton State on the road given those results.

Tarleton State is +8.8 points per game when comparing what their opponents typically score and give up on the season, while Weber State is -4.0 points per game.  So Tarleton would be a 12.8-point favorite on a neutral based on those numbers, and they're at home here.  The Texans have played the 18th-toughest schedule in the country while Weber State has played the 76th, too.

Weber State is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds last game.  The Wildcats are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Weber State is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games.  Take Tarleton State Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on OVER 227.5

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the NBA in pace and 9th in offensive efficiency.  They have scored at least 124 points in four of their last five games.  But they are slacking on defense coming off a championship season, ranking 21st in defensive efficiency.

Dallas just allowed 125 points to Boston and 124 points to Milwaukee in two of their last three games.  They are going to have to try and keep pace with the Warriors tonight because Golden State is going to get its points.  Expected a shootout between these teams tonight.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Warriors last seven games following a win by more than 10 points.  The OVER is 9-1 in Mavericks last 10 games following a loss.  The OVER is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings, including 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Dallas.

Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Golden State) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 28-8 (77.8%) since 1996.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +1

The Sacramento Kings are 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home during this stretch.  But they are coming off two consecutive road losses at Atlanta and at Boston, so they return home here highly motivated for a victory.  The Kings are also fully healthy and come in on two days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.

The Phoenix Suns have been fortunate to go 4-0 in their last four games overall.  All four games were at home against some of the worst teams in the NBA in the Knicks, Lakers, Pistons and Jazz.  They won their last two games over the Jazz and Pistons by a combined 7 points.

The Suns have been getting away with being without Chris Paul and Cam Johnson due to the soft schedule.  Their luck runs out tonight as they finally hit the road to face a legit team in the Kings.  It will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Suns tonight.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - after winning five or six of their last seven games, winning between 45-55% of their games on the season are 50-16 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Kings Monday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Seattle +5.5

Seattle went 23-9 in Chris Victor's first season with the team.  Now he returns four starters as the Redhawks are absolutely loaded.  That includes Cameron Tyson (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Riley Grigsby (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They also return three reserves that scored at least 4.2 PPG last year.

The Redhawks are off and running with a 5-0 start this season covering the spread in their three lined games.  They won 85-71 at UC-San Diego as 3.5-point road favorites, 106-55 over Puget Sound, 83-71 at home over Portland State as 9.5-point favorites, 80-68 at Portland as 3.5-point dogs and 89-53 over Pacific Lutheran.  Portland just upset Villanova by 12, lost by 8 to UNC and lost by 1 to Michigan State over the weekend, so that 12-point win at Portland looks really good for Seattle now.

Washington is in a letdown spot after an upset win over St. Mary's as 10-point dogs last time out.  Keep in mind this is a Washington team that lost outright to Cal Baptist as 8-point home favorites, only beat Utah Tech by 11 as 16.5-point home favorites and only beat North Florida by 8 as 16.5-point home favorites.  So that upset win over St. Mary's was an aberration.  I think Seattle is the better team here and should not be the underdog.

Washington is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-conference home games.  Victor is 6-0 ATS in November games as the coach of Seattle.  Hopkins is 1-10 ATS in home games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game as the coach of Washington.  Bet Seattle Monday.

15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sam Houston State +4.5

Sam Houston State is one of the most underrated teams in the country and will prove it again tonight.  The Bearkats are 6-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  That includes a 52-51 upset win at Oklahoma as 16.5-point dogs in the opener as well as a 65-55 win at Utah as 10-point dogs.  

Oklahoma has since reeled off 6 consecutive victories including a tournament win over Ole Miss yesterday, so how good does that win look now?  The Bearkats have avoided letdowns despite those two wins with their other four victories all coming by 31-plus points.  They are outscoring opponents by 33.2 points per game on the season!

Now the Bearkats will go on the road and upset Nevada tonight.  This Nevada team is getitng too much respect for its 6-1 SU & 5-1 ATS start against a pretty weak schedule.  The six wins over come against Utah Tech, Grand Canyon, William Jessup, UT-Arlington, Tulane and Akron.  They lone loss came to the best team they have faced in Kansas State by 9 on a neutral.  I'm not so sure Sam Houston State won't be the best team they have faced to this point.

Sam Houston State is 8-1 ATS in November road games over the last two seasons.  The Bearkats are 9-1 ATS vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  The Wolf Pack are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Bearkats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.  Sam Houston State is 37-16-1 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  Roll with Sam Houston State Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +12

The Houston Rockets are quietly playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost by 7 to the Warriors as 11-point dogs, upset the Hawks by 6 as 8-point dogs and upset the Thunder by 13 as 2-point dogs.

The Rockets should not be catching 12 points to the Denver Nuggets, who just have a way of playing to their level of competition.  The Nuggets are back home now after playing four of their last five games on the road.  I think this will be a sleepy spot for them, especially coming off two consecutive road wins over the Thunder (in OT) and the short-handed Clippers.

Denver is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Nuggets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a road win by 10 points or more.  The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Nuggets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Plays against any team (Denver) - following two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

20* Steelers/Colts ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 39

Both the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) and Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1) suffered crushing losses to their playoff hopes last week.  The Steelers lost 30-37 at home to the Bengals, while the Colts blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead in a 17-16 home loss to the Eagles.  I expect a pretty care-free game here on Monday Night Football with both offenses performing better than expected.

The Colts have been better offensively since getting both Matt Ryan and Johnathan Taylor back from injury.  They have averaged 20.5 points per game in their last two games against the Raiders and Eagles.  They have been able to run the football, and Ryan is making enough plays in play-action to keep the offense moving.  Now they'll be up against a Steelers defense that just allowed 37 points and 408 total yards to the Bengals last week.

The Steelers finally got their offense going the past two weeks under Kenny Pickett.  After scoring 20 points and gaining 379 yards against the Saints two weeks ago, they put up 30 points and 351 yards on the Bengals last week.  Najee Harris looks fully healthy now and has rushed for 90-plus yards in consecutive weeks.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Pittsburgh) - off a close division loss by 7 points or less with a losing record on the season are 34-14 (70.8%) over the last 10 seasons.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Expect more offense than the books are giving these teams credit for in this standalone game.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +6

The New Orleans Pelicans cannot be 6-point favorites over the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight when they are missing two of their best players.  Both CJ McCollum (18.7 PPG, 6.1 APG) and Brandon Ingram (20.8 PPG) are expected to miss this game.  Larry Nance Jr. (9.4 PPG) is questionable as well.

The Thunder have been grossly undervalued the past two seasons.  They have been the most profitable team to back because of it.  They sit at 8-12 this season but are clearly improved, and they are as healthy as they have been all season.  I like their chances of keeping this one close and likely pulling off the upset with the Pelicans missing Ingram and McCollum.

The Thunder are 57-35 ATS in their last 92 games as underdogs.  Oklahoma City is 33-15 ATS in its last 48 road games.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in New Orleans.  Take the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.  They are the much fresher team than the Cleveland Cavaliers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  It will also be their 3rd road game in 4 days.

The Cavaliers needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat the lowly Detroit Pistons last night.  Garland played over 40 minutes, Mobley over 39 minutes and Mitchell over 38 minutes.  Kevin Love, Lamar Stevens and Jarrett Allen are all out tonight, so they are short-handed, which makes this spot even worse for the Cavaliers.

The Cavaliers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Raptors are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Cavaliers.  Take the Raptors Monday.

15* Iowa State/UConn ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 136

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  They play at one of the slowest paces in the country, play some of the best defense in the country, and struggle on offense.  They are holding opponents to 17 points less than their season averages on the season.

Connecticut is also an elite defensive team which has been the key to its 7-0 start this season.  The Huskies are holding opponents to 13 points less than their season averages.  This game has the makings of a defensive struggle to say the least.

Iowa State is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Cyclones last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Cyclones last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cyclones last seven games following an ATS win.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Magic UNDER 215

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The 76ers just beat the Magic 107-99 for 206 combined points in Orlando on Friday.  Now these teams meet again two days later Sunday in a rematch in Orlando.

Philadelphia is without its top three scorers in Embiid, Maxey and Harden who combined to average more than 77 points per game.  It's safe to say they are going to continue to struggle offensively without them and have to rely on defense to try and win games.

Orlando has injury concerns of its own with Anthony out, and Suggs, Carter Jr. and Okeke questionable.  The Magic are going extremely big right now as they just started Bamba, Blanchero and Bol against the 76ers last game.  They have been held to 108 or fewer points in five of their last seven games.  

The UNDER is 6-2 in Magic last eight games overall.  Philadelphia is 19-6 UNDER in its last 25 games as a road underdog, including 15-3 UNDER in its last 18 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Celtics UNDER 224.5

The Boston Celtics have been the most efficient offensive team in the NBA this season.  But that was with Jayson Tatum (30.5 PPG), who will miss his first game of the season Sunday with an ankle injury.  The Celtics are going to be lost on offense without out, thus this total is way too high.

This total is also too high when you consider the opponent in Washington.  The Wizards are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 22nd in pace this season while Boston ranks 18th in pace.  The Wizards rank 24th in offensive efficiency and 6th in defensive efficiency.  Each of Washington's last four games have seen 218 or fewer combined points.

These teams met on October 30th earlier this season with Boston winning 112-94 for 204 combined points.  The UNDER is now 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and we've seen 223 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in 10 of those 11 meetings.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 224.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pennsylvania -3.5

The Penn Quakers were expected to be the best team in the Ivy League this season because they returned five starters including three double-digit scorers and all of their top reserves.  They weren't healthy to start the season and lost four of their first five games against a brutal schedule with the four losses coming to Iona, Missouri, Towson and West Virginia.

But they have since gotten healthy and gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with a road win over Lafayette 74-68 as 5.5-point favorites, a 75-55 home win over Hartford as 19-point favorites and an 81-69 home win over Colgate as 4-point dogs.  Now they host Delaware and should roll at home here Sunday.

Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, and the Quakers have the better depth which will benefit them.  Keep in mind Delaware only beat Colgate by 4.  They also have lost their two true road games to Air Force by 4 and Duke by 34.  This is a true road game for Delaware, which lost four starters from last season that were all double-digit scorers.

Penn is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games, including 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Quakers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Quakers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  Roll with Penn Sunday.

15* Pacers/Clippers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 222

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in the NBA In pace this season, 9th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency.  This 222-point total is very low for a game involving the Pacers.  We've seen 15 of 18 Indiana games with at least 221 combined points this season.

This total is low because the Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George right now.  While those are two of their best scorers, they are also two of their best defenders.  The Clippers are one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can still get scoring with John Wall and Norman Powell coming off the bench.  

But they really lose a lot defensively, and that has been evident of late as the Clippers have allowed 114 or more points in four consecutive games.  They have scored 112.8 points per game in their last four games and will get enough points in this one against this soft Indiana defense to send this one OVER the total.

Indiana is 14-4 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make at least 48% of their shots this season.  The OVER is 22-10-1 in Pacers last 33 games playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pacers last seven Sunday games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seattle Seahawks -3.5

The Seattle Seahawks are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Germany last time out.  They won those four games all by double-digits.  They are coming off their bye week and will be rested and ready to go as they try and win the NFC West here down the stretch.  They sit at 6-4 on the season with an excellent chance to do just that with the way they are playing.

This line would be bigger had the Raiders not pulled off the 22-16 (OT) upset in Denver last week.  But that was a Denver team that has more players on injured reserve than any other team in the NFL, and they took advantage.  I expect the Raiders to still be pretty tired from that OT win, plus this is a team that went 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games with losses to the Saints, Jaguars and Colts while getting outscored 76-40 in the process.

Despite the win last week, the Raiders are just 3-7 this season and out of the playoff hunt.  They are still without two of Derek Carr's favorite weapons in TE Waller and WR Renfrow, and they could be without RB Josh Jacobs, who is questionable with an ankle injury.  They don't have the horses on offense right now to keep up with Seattle, and they certainly don't have the defense to slow down the Seahawks.

Seattle ranks 5th in scoring offense this season at 25.7 points per game and 4th at 6.0 yards per play, and it has shredded defenses like the Raiders all season.  Las Vegas ranks 24th in scoring defense at 24.2 points per game, 27th in total defense at 370.5 yards per game and 28th at 5.9 yards per play.  Seattle has really been buttoned up defensively of late and has one of the most improved stop units in the NFL.  The Seahawks are allowing just 17.4 points per game in their last five games.

Seattle is 6-0 ATS in his last six home games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The Seahawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. poor defenses that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.  Pete Carroll is 45-24-4 ATS following a loss as the coach of Seattle.  The Seahawks are 41-19-4 ATS in their last 64 games following a loss.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Portland Trail Blazers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season whether they have had Damian Lillard or not.  They are 11-8 SU & 13-6 ATS this season, including 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS without Lillard.

The Blazers have been able to be competitive without Lillard because Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are stars.  They have upset road wins over Phoenix as 12-point dogs, Memphis as 5-point dogs, Milwaukee as 9-point dogs and New York as 4-point dogs without Lillard.

Simons and Grant combined for 82 points in a 132-129 (OT) win at New York last time out.  Now they stay in New York and head to Brooklyn to face the Nets tonight.  The Nets have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season, especially when Kyrie Irving has been healthy and in the lineup.  The Nets are 3-9 ATS with Irving in the lineup this season as he is a terrible defender and their chemistry has been awful with him.

Portland is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Brooklyn is 13-38-1 ATS in its last 52 home games.  The Nets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after playing a game where they were called for 10-plus more fouls than their opponent.  The Nets are 8-33 ATS in their last 41 games as home favorites.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

15* Blazers/Nets Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Nets OVER 220.5

The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts OVER team with Kyrie Irving in the lineup.  He's one of the best scorers in the NBA, but also one of the worst defenders as well.  This 220.5-point total is way low for a game involving the Nets with Irving in the lineup.  The OVER is 7-5 in the 12 games with Irving this season with combined scores of 221 or more points in eight of those 12 games.

This total has been set lower than it should be because the Blazers are without Damian Lillard.  But they have been just fine without him, going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS because Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are stars.  They have scored at least 108 points in all six games without Lillard while averaging 118.2 points per game in those six games.  Grant and Simons just combined for 82 points in a win over the Knicks last time out.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Ole Miss/Oklahoma ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -2

Oklahoma has been undervalued since a 51-52 upset home loss to Sam Houston State in the opener.  That loss doesn't look at bad now considering Sam Houston is 6-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season with the other five wins all coming by double-digits since upsetting the Sooners.

Oklahoma has since gone 5-0 including covers in three of their last four games.  The last two have been very impressive with a 69-56 win over Nebraska as 6.5-point favorites and a 77-64 win over Seton Hall as 2-point dogs.  I think they hand Ole Miss its first loss of the season today.

Ole Miss is overvalued due to a 6-0 start against a very soft schedule.  They only won by 4 over Tennessee-Martin at home and none of their wins have come by more than 15 points despite the soft schedule of Tennessee-Martin, Alcorn State, FAU, Chattanooga, Siena and Stanford.  The Rebels will meet their match today as this is easily their toughest test yet.

The Rebels are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Bet Oklahoma Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -3

The Tampa Bay Bucs saved their season two games back when they put together a last-second touchdown drive to beat the Rams.  They followed it up with a 21-16 win over Seattle in Germany in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bucs outgained the Seahawks 419 to 283, or by 136 total yards.

Now the Bucs are in a great spot here coming off their bye week.  They are as healthy as they have been all season.  Look for them to carry their positive momentum into this showdown with the Cleveland Browns, who are just waiting to get DeShaun Watson in the lineup next week.  Jacoby Brissett is just a sitting duck this week.

The Browns sit at 3-7 on the season and out of the playoff hunt after losing six of their last seven games overall.  They followed up a 17-39 loss at Miami with a 23-31 loss to Buffalo in Detroit last week in what was a hectic week due to the game being moved.  Keep in mind the Browns scored in the final seconds in garbage time to turn a 15-point game into an 8-point game against the Bills.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Browns, too.  They just lost All-Pro C Ethan Pocic last week to a knee injury that has landed him on injured reserve.  The entire offensive line is pretty much banged up, which is why the Browns have struggled to run the football in recent weeks, which used to be their strength.  They have rushed for just 192 yards on 50 carries the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Bills for 3.8 per carry.

But the biggest problem for the Browns is a leaky, banged up defense.  They rank 30th in the NFL in scoring defense at 26.9 points per game and 24th allowing 5.8 yards per play.  The Bucs have come to life offensively in recent weeks, and they should hang a big number on Cleveland this week.  The move to give third-round rookie RB Rashaad White more touches is paying off.  He rushed for 105 yards against the Seahawks last time out.  Brady has pretty much his full compliment of weapons now in Evans, Godwin, Jones, Miller and Brate healthy.

The Bucs rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.0 points per game, 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game and 8th at 5.0 yards per play allowed.  The Browns are 24-51-1 ATS in their last 76 games following a loss.  I just think this is a terrible spot for the Browns given their season outlook currently and with Watson coming back next week.  It's a great spot for the Bucs off a bye, as healthy as they have been all season, and with positive momentum as they try and win the NFC South down the stretch.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +4

I love the spot for the Jacksonville Jaguars this week.  They are coming off a bye under first-year head coach Doug Pederson.  First-year head coaches can really get some good work in on bye weeks, and I look for this Jaguars team to come out of it very sharp.

Jacksonville is much better than its 3-7 record would indicate.  Six of the seven losses have come by one score, so they have been unfortunate in close games.  The only one that wasn't a one-score loss was a 10-point loss at Kansas City in which they went 1-for-3 on field goals, otherwise it would have been a one-score loss.

Jacksonville is actually outgaining teams by 5 yards per game on the season, outscoring opponents by 1.1 points per game, and dead even in yards per play on offense and defense at 5.7.  This is more like a .500 team than one that is just 3-7 this season, which provides us some line value with the Jaguars moving forward.  The Ravens shouldn't be more than 3-point road favorites here.

Baltimore is getting too much love for this four-game winning streak over Cleveland, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina.  It was ugly last week against the Panthers as the offense was broken.  It was a 3-3 game with 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter before the Ravens eventually won 13-3 after getting some late turnovers by the Panthers.

Lamar Jackson doesn't look right and is clearly playing through injury.  TE Mark Andrews is playing through injury, and Jackson misses his best deep threat in Rashod Bateman, who is on IR.  Jackson has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in six of his last seven games.  Stop Baltimore's rushing attack and you have a chance.

Well, the Jaguars are pretty good at stopping the run.  The Jaguars rank 10th in the NFL allowing 110.1 rushing yards per game.  They are also 8th in the NFL in allowing just 4.2 yards per carry.  The Ravens' best lineman in T Ronnie Stanley got injured last week and is questionable this week as well.

Baltimore is a woeful 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  It is actually getting outscored by 1.8 points per game in this spot.  Pederson is 13-3 ATS vs. good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game as a head coach.  The Jaguars are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week.  They're probably the healthiest team in the NFL right now with only four players on the injury report.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Commanders -3

The Washington Commanders have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall to get to 6-5 this season and back in the playoff hunt, sitting in 7th place in the NFC.  They won't be having a letdown this week considering they host the Atlanta Falcons, who are one game behind them.  I think Washington is by far the superior team in this matchup and should be more than a 3-point favorite at home.

The offense has a certain swagger with Taylor Heineke at quarterback.  Players love this guy.  He is making all the plays he needs to make to get wins.  The Commanders have victories over Green Bay, Indianapolis, Philadelphia and Houston with their lone loss coming to the Vikings by 3 in Heineke's last five starts.  But it's this Washington defense that is the reason they are going to win and cover this week.

Atlanta can't match Washington defensively.  The Commanders rank 12th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game, 6th in total defense at 308.0 yards per game and 11th at 5.2 yards per play allowed.  Atlanta ranks 27th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 29th in total defense at 389.4 yards per game and 29th at 5.9 yards per play allowed.

There is a 100% chance of precipitation so this game will be played on the ground.  That's especially the case for the Falcons, who just lost one of their best weapons in TE Kyle Pitts to injured reserve last week with a knee injury.  The Falcons average 159 rushing yards per game and only 154 passing.  Well, Washington ranks 6th against the run allowing 103.1 yards per game and 9th at 4.2 yards per carry.  They haven't allowed anything on the ground in four of their last five games, holding the Packers to 38 rushing yards, the Vikings to 56, the Eagles to 94 and the Texans to 21.  They may get Chase Young back, too.

Washington is more balanced and has gotten its running game going in recent weeks with 128 or more rushing yards in five of its last six games.  The Commanders should be able to run all over an Atlanta defense that ranks 21st in allowing 123.1 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry.  After allowing 232 rushing yards to the Panthers two weeks ago, the Falcons gave up 160 more to the Bears last week.

Washington is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Ron Rivera is 9-1 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 as the coach of Washington.  The Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall, and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight November games.  It's not time to step in front of this freight train in Washington just yet as the Falcons won't be the team that offers resistance to them.  Take the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Carolina Panthers +2

The Carolina Panthers continue to show up every week under interim head coach Steve Wilks.  They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  They have upset wins over Tampa Bay 21-3 as 13-point dogs and Atlanta by 10 as 2-point dogs.  They also only lost by 3 at Atlanta as 4-point dogs.  They gave the Ravens all they wanted last week in a game that was tied 3-3 with under 10 minutes to go, eventually losing 13-3 as 13-point dogs after a couple of late turnovers.

This week the offense gets a spark with Sam Darnold expected to be the starting quarterback.  He cannot possibly be a downgrade to Baker Mayfield or PJ Walker.  I think at least for one week, this offense will be excited to see a new face in the huddle and will perform well.  But this game will be played on the ground with a 100% chance of precipitation and 16 MPH winds.

The Panthers have been great running the ball in recent weeks, averaging 134.8 rushing yards per game in their last five games.  Denver is doing nothing well offensively.  The Broncos rank dead last (32nd) in scoring offense at 14.7 points per game.  They rank 24th in rushing at 102.6 yards per game and 28th at 3.9 yards per carry.  With this game being played mostly on the ground, it's definitely worth noting the Panthers rank 17th allowing 4.5 yards per carry while the Broncos rank 26th at 4.7 yards per carry allowed.

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Broncos.  They have more players on the injury report and more players on injured reserve than any other team in the NFL.  They are going to be without two of their best receivers again in Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler.  The offensive line is a mess as Russell Wilson has no time to throw the ball, which is a big reason the offense has struggled so much.

This Denver defense has kept the team in games for much of the season, but they are tired of it at this point.  Denver sits at 3-7 with nothing to play for the rest of the way after a 22-16 (OT) home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week.  They even gave up 409 total yards to a bad Raiders offense that is missing several key weapons.  I don't think they'll have it in them to match the physicality of this Carolina rush offense this week, especially being extra tired coming off an OT game.

Plays against favorites (Denver) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Denver has no business being a road favorite over anyone right now given all their injuries.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

15* BYU/Stanford FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU -6.5

Stanford is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  This is a dead Cardinal team sitting at 3-8 this season and just wanting this disaster of a season to be over with.  They have lost four consecutive games by an average of 26.3 points per game.  Expect another blowout loss for the Cardinal in the season finale.

BYU is the fresher team coming off a 52-26 win over Dixie State last week that followed up a bye the previous week.  They are rested and ready to go, while Stanford will be playing for a 10th consecutive week.  Injuries and attrition have hurt the Cardinal, and they are going to have a hard time getting back up off the mat after a tough 27-20 loss at Cal last week.

BYU has an elite offense that averages 31.65 points per game, 440 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  The Cougars can name their score on this Cardinal defense that allows 31.9 points per game, 434 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.  BYU is good against the pass but poor against the run, but that's not a problem here because Stanford only averages 113 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.

Plays against home teams (Stanford) - after being beaten by the spread by 40 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Stanford is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after losing four or five of its last six games.  The Cardinal are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  Stanford is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game.  The Cardinal are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Take BYU Saturday.