25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 208.5

The longer a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another and the more it favors defense and low-scoring games.  That's why it should be no surprise that UNDERS are 54-24 in the last 78 Game 7's in the NBA playoffs.

The Bucks have been the best UNDER team in these players.  The UNDER is 9-2 in their 11 games.  They are scoring just 104.7 points per game and allowing 100.5 points per game.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season and have been able to hold the Bucks in check.  They can guard Giannis better than any team in the NBA.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds -107

Don't look now but the Cincinnati Reds have gone 6-2 in their last eight games overall and are swinging the bats very well.  The Reds have scored at least 4 runs in 10 consecutive games.  They will stay hot at the plate against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight.

The Reds will tee off on Zach Thompson, who is 0-3 with a 7.45 ERA and 1.759 WHIP in five starts this season.  Luis Castillo will be making his second start back from the IL and should dominate a Pirates team he has owned.  Castillo is 5-3 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.123 WHIP in 12 career starts against Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh is 2-15 in Thompson's last 17 starts as an underdog.  The Pirates are 24-60 in their last 84 against the NL Central, including 7-21 in their last 28 meetings with Cincinnati.  Roll with the Reds Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis Cardinals -102

The St. Louis Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory here Saturday.  They have lost five of their last six games overall including the opener of this series with the San Francisco Giants.  The Giants will relax after winning six in a row, which has them getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers now.

I believe the Cardinals have a big advantage on the mound int his one.  Dakota Hudson is 2-2 with a 3.56 ERA in six starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in two home starts.  Hudson is 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA in three career starts against the Giants as well.

It has been nothing but a struggle for Jake Junis in the big leagues dating back to his time with the Kansas City Royals.  Junis is 30-35 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.339 WHIP in six seasons in the big leagues.  I don't expect the Giants to have him much improved over what he was with the Royals.

The Cardinals are 21-7 in their last 28 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  St. Louis is 9-3 in its last 12 home meetings with San Francisco.  Take the Cardinals Saturday.

20* Grizzlies/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +8.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have thrived without Ja Morant all season.  They were 20-5 in the regular season without Morant, and now they are 1-1 in this series without him.  They deserved to win in a 98-101 loss at Golden State as 9.5-point dogs in Game 4, but couldn't hit their free throws.

Everything went right for the Grizzlies in their impressive 134-95 rout as 4-point home underdogs at home in Game 5.  And they won't go down without a fight in Game 6 tonight.  There's no way they should be catching 8.5 points against the Warriors tonight.

The Grizzlies are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games overall.  Memphis is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Grizzlies are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as favorites.  Take the Grizzlies Friday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics +2

Home-court advantage really hasn't mattered in this series.  The road team is 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the five games.  After blowing a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter of Game 5, I expect the Boston Celtics to come back pissed off in Game 6 to save their season.

The Celtics alongside the Miami Heat have been the two best teams in the Eastern Conference all season.  It's hard to repeat, and I just think the Bucks are way more vulnerable than they were last season, especially without Kris Middleton.  The Celtics are the more complete team and I trust them more, so this series is going to a Game 7.

The Celtics are figuring out how to score on this Milwaukee defense as they have shot 50% or better in two consecutive games.  The Bucks have shot 43.5% or worse in four of the five games in this series, and that's largely due to being up against Boston's 2nd-ranked unit in defensive efficiency.  Few teams are better equipped to guard Giannis than the Celtics with all of the length they can throw at home and stay in front of him.

Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games against a good team that wins 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The Celtics are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  Boston is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds -105

Don't look now but the Cincinnati Reds have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall and are swinging the bats very well.  The Reds have scored at least 4 runs in nine consecutive games.  They will stay hot at the plate against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight.

The Reds will tee off on Mitch Keller, who is 0-4 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in six starts this season.  Keller is 1-3 with a 7.09 ERA and 1.831 WHIP in nine career starts against the Reds as well.

Tyler Mahle is the ace of this Cincinnati rotation and held the Pirates to two earned runs and four base runners in 5 innings of a 7-3 win in his last start.  Mahle improved to 4-4 with a 3.92 ERA in 12 career starts against Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati is 7-1 in its last eight road games following an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.  Pittsburgh is 6-26 in its last 32 vs. a starting pitcher who allows 0.5 or fewer homers per start.  The Pirates are 24-59 in their last 83 against the NL Central, including 7-20 in their last 27 meetings with Cincinnati.  Roll with the Reds Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -135

The Los Angeles Dodgers had won six straight before surprisingly losing two out of three at Pittsburgh as -215 and -185 favorites.  Now we get them motivated and at a discount as only -135 home favorites in Game 1 of this series against the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday.

The Dodgers have the advantage on the mound behind Tyler Anderson, who is 2-0 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in three starts this season.  Anderson is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in four career starts against the Phillies.

Zack Wheeler is 1-3 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in five starts this season for the Phillies.  Wheeler is 2-2 with a 4.66 ERA in five career starts against the Dodgers as well.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.1 runs per game with a 2.77 bullpen ERA this season, while the Phillies are scoring 4.5 runs per game with a 4.11 bullpen ERA.

Philadelphia is 1-13 in its last 14 games vs. teams that draw 4 or more walks per game.  The Phillies are 6-14 in their last 20 road games.  Philadelphia is 1-8 in its last nine road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Los Angeles is 41-10 in its last 51 home games.  Roll with the Dodgers Thursday.

15* Suns/Mavs ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -1.5

The Phoenix Suns have been the best team in the NBA all season.  They proved they were on another level when they won 110-80 in Game 5.  And now they are ready to close out this series with all the pressure on the Mavericks trying to stave off elimination.

Monte Williams and the Suns have the Mavericks figured out.  They rely so heavily on Luka Doncic, and they need the 'others' to make shots from 3-point range.  That's a lot to ask here with their season on the line.  The Suns can beat you several different ways, and the Mavericks have no answer for DeAndre Ayton inside.

The Suns are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as favorites.  Phoenix is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Dallas.  Take the Suns in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Heat/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +2.5

The Miami Heat are ready to end this streak of the home team winning every game.  They have been the best team in the Eastern Conference all season.  I trust them to show up tonight and close out this series.  They have the 76ers by the balls right now and will take advantage.

You just don't know what you're going to get from the 76ers on a nightly basis.  Joel Embiid got real banged up in their 120-85 Game 5 blowout loss to the Heat.  He won't be 100%.  James Harden was a no-show and continues to falter in the biggest games.  This is their biggest game of the season, and I don't trust him one bit.  Danny Green is hit or miss as well.

Miami is 21-7 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The Heat are 17-6 ATS as underdogs this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Thursday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Mets -1.5 (-105)

The New York Mets have been one of the best teams in baseball this season.  They have an improved lineup, a tremendous rotation and a solid bullpen.  They are 21-10 this season and take on the 10-21 Washington Nationals, who are 3-12 while hitting .194 and scoring 2.2 runs per game at home this season.

The Mets have a big advantage on the mound tonight.  Tylor Megill is 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in six starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.06 ERA and 0.706 WHIP in three road starts.  He faced the Nationals once already this season and pitched 5 shutout innings in a 5-1 victory at Washington on April 7th.

Aaron Sanchez has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 1-2 with an 8.57 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in three starts this season.  He'll be up against a Mets team that is 12-5 on the road and scoring 4.8 runs per game.

The Mets are 8-0 in road games with a total set of 8 to 8.5 this season and winning by 2.7 runs per game.  Washington is 9-38 in its last 47 games as a home underdog and losing by 2.2 runs per game.  Take the Mets on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Bucks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are 8-1 UNDER in their nine playoff games this season.  They are scoring 105.2 points per game and allowing 99.0 points per game in the playoffs.  They miss Khris Middleton on offense, but they have been the best defense in the playoffs thus far without him.

The Celtics and Bucks had combined for just 95 points at halftime in Game 4 and were well on their way to yet another under.  But both teams caught fire in the 2nd half, and that was bound to happen eventually.  But that was an aberration, not the norm in this series and for the Bucks in general.

The Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams all season.  They rank 2nd in defensive efficiency.  The longer a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another, and it favors defense.  Also, the Celtics will control the tempo playing at home, which is a preferred slower pace.  The first two games in Boston saw just 190 and 195 combined points.

Normally, a total in an NBA playoff series continues to go down as the series goes on because if favors defense.  But the total was 212 in Game 3 and 213.5 in Game 4.  Now we are getting 214.5 in Game 5.  There's clearly value with the UNDER now.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Celtics last 13 conference semifinals games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -5.5

The Phoenix Suns were the best team in the NBA all season.  Nothing has changed now with the Mavericks winning both of their games at home to tie this series at 2-2.  The Suns dominated in Games 1 and 2 at home, and they will dominate in this all-important Game 5 as well.

The Mavericks got all the calls at home in their last two games.  They won't get those calls in Phoenix.  Their role players also won't play nearly as well as they did at home.  The Suns will get better efforts from their role players, and Chris Paul will be pissed off after fouling out in Game 4.  A pissed off Paul is a scary Paul.

Phoenix is a perfect 14-0 ATS in its last 14 games when revenging a loss as a road favorite.  It is coming back to win by a whopping 15.8 points per game in this spot.  Phoenix is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 9-3 ATS in the last 12 home meetings.  Take the Suns in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Miami -3

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They won Games 1 and 2 with ease at home by 14 and 16 points.  Now they went on to lose both games in Philadelphia with the return of Joel Embiid, and all of a sudden nobody likes the Heat anymore.  I do, and I'll take advantage by backing them as only 3-point home favorites in Game 5 after they were 7.5-point favorites in Games 1 and 2 at home.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings dating back to the regular season.  The Heat have been tremendous at home this season at 34-12 SU.  They have been the best team in the East all season and I still think they are the best team in the East.  They are one of the most disrespected No. 1 seeds in the history of the NBA.

Miami is 18-8 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Heat are 42-20 ATS in their last 62 playoff games as favorites.  Philadelphia is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Miami.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-112)

The Cincinnati Reds have now won three of their last four.  They are still just 4-21 in their last 25 games overall with 20 losses by two runs or more.  They are now without Mike Moustakas after already being without Joey Votto, Nick Senzel and Jonathan India.

The Brewers will come back highly motivated for a victory after losing last night to the Reds to drop their third consecutive game overall.  They had gone 15-3 in their previous 18 games overall with 12 wins by two runs or more.  I'll gladly back them on the Run Line today.

Freddy Peralta is 3-2 with a 3.42 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in nine career starts against the Reds.  He'll be opposed by Hunter Greene, who just allowed 8 earned runs and 5 homers in 2 2/3 innings in a 5-10 loss to the Brewers on May 5th in his last start.  Green is now 1-4 with an 8.71 ERA and 1.888 WHIP in five starts this season.

Cincinnati is 3-19 vs. teams with winning records this season and losing by 3.6 runs per game on average.  Roll with the Brewers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners -118

Two disappointing teams in the Philadelphia Phillies (12-16) and Seattle Mariners (13-16) square off in Game 1 of this Interleague series Monday night.  I trust the Mariners more, and I certainly believe they have a big advantage on the mound tonight.

Chris Flexen went 14-6 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 31 starts last season for the Mariners.  He is one of the most underrated starters in baseball and has been even better thus far this season.  Flexen has posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in five starts, including a 1.93 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in his last three outings.

Ranger Suarez is getting way too much respect from the books today.  He is 2-1 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.628 WHIP in five starts while allowing 12 earned runs, 38 base runners and 4 homers with only 15 K's in 23 1/3 innings.  The Mariners have the better bullpen as well.

Seattle is 11-2 in Flexen's last 13 starts with a money line of -125 to +125.  The Mariners are a perfect 11-0 in Flexen's last 11 starts vs. teams that draw three or fewer walks per game.  The Phillies are 4-13 in their last 17 road games.  Roll with the Mariners Monday.

20* Celtics/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 212

The Milwaukee Bucks are a perfect 8-0 UNDER in all playoff games this season.  They are averaging 104.9 points per game and clearly miss Khris Middleton offensively.  But they are giving up just 96.9 points per game and have been far and away the best defensive team in these playoffs.

The Celtics are scoring 107.6 points per game and giving up 103.7 points per game in the playoffs.  And keep in mind they played the Nets in the first round.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and just got Marcus Smart back from injury, the Defensive Player of the Year.

Few teams are built to slow down Giannis and the Bucks like the Celtics are.  They have Horford, Robert Williams and Grant Williams to throw at him.  They have been defending him with size and as a team.  He doesn't get many easy layups against the Celtics like he does against most teams.

Milwaukee is 17-6 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Celtics last 12 conference semifinals games.  The UNDER is 19-6-2 in Bucks last 27 playoff games as favorites.  These teams have combined for 190, 195 and 204 points in the first three games in this series.   Bet the UNDER 212 in Game 4 Monday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Yankees -1.5 (+110)

The New York Yankees are 12-2 in their last 14 games overall.  They should make easy work of the Texas Rangers today due to their massive advantage on the mound.

Nestor Cortes is 1-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in five starts this season for the Yankees.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs and 2 homers with 31 K's in 24 2/3 innings.  Cortes will shut down the Rangers today.

Jone Gray is 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA in three starts for the Rangers this season.  He has allowed 10 earned runs in 12 innings.  He faces one of the best lineups in baseball today in the Yankees and will get rocked for a 4th consecutive start.

Texas is 7-29 in its last 36 road games after scoring 4 runs or fewer in three consecutive games.  The Rangers are 21-55 in their last 76 road games.  The Yankees are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.  New York is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with five wins by two runs or more.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Monday.

20* Suns/Mavs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5

Most NBA playoff series you see the total get lower and lower as the series progresses.  But that's not the case in this series.  Game 1 was set at 214 and Game 4 is set at 214.5.  I think there's value with the UNDER because of it.

They actually adjusted the total up in Game 2 and Game 3 after the first two games went over the total.  But that was an aberration, especially the Suns shooting 64.5% in Game 2.  These teams came back down to earth in Game 3 with a 103-94 victory by the Mavericks and just 197 combined points.

I like the UNDER in this series more in games played in Dallas.  That's because the Mavericks will control the tempo playing at home, and they rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Mavericks are 6th in defensive efficiency this season while the Suns are 3rd in defensive efficiency.  Game 4 will be played in the half court with the Mavericks controlling the tempo again.

Phoenix is a perfect 10-0 UNDER following a road loss this season.  The UNDER is 21-6-1 in Suns last 28 games following a loss.  The UNDER is 24-5-1 in Mavericks last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 37-15-1 in Mavericks last 53 home games.  The UNDER is 17-7 in the last 24 meetings in Dallas.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)

The Toronto Blue Jays have a big advantage on the mound today over the Cleveland Guardians that should have them winning this game by two runs or more.  They should feast on Konnor Pilkington, who has been called up to make his first career start today.  He posted an 8.22 ERA and 1.826 WHIP in spring training and he has a 9.53 ERA and 1.941 WHIP in the minors this season.

Alek Manoah is one of the best starters in baseball.  He went 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.048 WHIP as a rook last season, and now he's 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.839 WHIP in five starts this season to pick up right where he left off.  Manoah is a legitimate Cy Young contender.

The Blue Jays are 20-5 in Manoah's 25 career starts and outscoring opponents by 2.0 runs per game in this 25 contests.  Toronto is 22-4 in its last 26 games following a loss.  Cleveland is 15-36 in its last 51 games as a home underdog.  Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Night ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh Pirates -120 (Game 2)

The Cincinnati Reds are just 1-20 in their last 21 games overall with 19 of those 20 losses coming by two runs or more.  They are without two of their best hitters in Joey Votto and Jonathan India right now, plus Nick Senzel due to COVID.  They are a joke of a team right now.

That's why I'm even willing to lay juice on the road with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are just 10-14 this season but a much better team than the Reds right now.  Mitch Keller has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last three starts against Cincinnati.  Keller has posted a 3.37 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts despite facing the Brewers (twice) and Padres.

I like that the Pirates are the more rested, fresher team.  They have played just two games over the past five days.  That sets them up well to handle this double-header much better than the short-handed Reds.  Roll with the Pirates in Game 2 Saturday.

20* Celtics/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 213

The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks have played in two very low-scoring games in the first two games of this series.  They combined for 190 points in Game 1 and 195 points in Game 2.  Now the total has still been set too high at 213 points in Game 3.

The longer a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another.  That makes points harder to come by and favors defense.  Add to that the fact that both teams have had three days off in between games to get ready for Game 3, and it's safe to say they know each other inside and out.

It's also worth noting that both teams shot pretty well in Game 2 and they still only combined for 195 points.  Boston shot 47.5% from the field and made 20-of-43 (46.5%) from 3-point range, setting a franchise record for 3's made in a playoff game.  The Bucks shot 46.6% as a team.  This game was played at a snail's pace with both teams attempting 80 shots or fewer.  That should be the case again in Game 3.  The Celtics also get a Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart back to help them out on that end.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Bucks' seven playoff games this season.  They are allowing just 94.9 points per game and have been the best team in the playoffs defensively.  They are scoring just 105.1 points per game, so it's not like they are lighting it up on offense, and they certainly miss Khris Middleton's scoring.  The Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and have been even better when Robert Williams is on the floor, one of the most underrated players in the league due to what he can do defensively.  He stopped Giannis at the rim numerous times in Game 3, and there's not many players who can do that.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Celtics last 11 conference semifinals games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh Pirates -114 (Game 1)

The Cincinnati Reds are just 1-20 in their last 21 games overall with 19 of those 20 losses coming by two runs or more.  They are without two of their best hitters in Joey Votto and Jonathan India right now, plus Nick Senzel due to COVID.  They are a joke of a team right now.

That's why I'm even willing to lay juice on the road with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are just 10-14 this season but a much better team than the Reds right now.  J.T. Brubaker has allowed one earned run exactly in three of his last four starts against the Reds and should shut them down tonight.

I like that the Pirates are the more rested, fresher team.  They have played just two games over the past five days and will be champing at the bit to get back on the diamond for Game 1 of this series today.  Take the Pirates in Game 1 Saturday.

20* Suns/Mavs TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +1

The Dallas Mavericks are in must-win mode in Game 3 at home tonight.  This is the series, and I expect their best effort of it thus far.  That should be enough to win this game outright against the Phoenix Suns, who lost two games to the Pelicans last series.

The Suns aren't going to shoot as good on the road as they did at home in the first two games of this series.  They shot 50.5% in Game 1 and won by 7, then shot a ridiculous 64.5% in Game 2 including 13-of-25 (52%) from 3-point range.  They are coming off basically a perfect game, and that's going to be hard to follow up.

The Mavericks will be the team playing with more intensity tonight, while the Suns relax a little knowing they are up 2-0 in this series and in good shape.  And the atmosphere will be much more difficult for them to handle in front of a hostile Dallas crowd.  Jason Kidd has done a tremendous job of coaching this season, and I expect him to make the proper adjustments for Game 3 tonight to slow down this Phoenix offense.

Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a blowout road loss by 20 points or more.  It is winning by 16.4 points per game in this spot.  The Mavericks are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 3 Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Mavs UNDER 220.5

There is clearly value with the UNDER in Game 3 tonight when you consider the totals from the first two games of this series.  They were set at 214 for Game 1 and 217 for Game 2.  Now we have a total of 220.5 for Game 3 after the first two games went over the total.

We'll take advantage of this value and back the UNDER.  The Suns aren't going to shoot as well as they have in Phoenix, making 50.5% in Game 1 and then a ridiculous 64.5% in Game 2.  The Mavericks probably can't be expected to shoot as well from 3-point range as they have either.

I like the UNDER more in games played in Dallas in this series.  That's because the Mavericks will control the tempo playing at home, and they rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  They are also 6th in defensive efficiency, while the Suns are 2nd in defensive efficiency and play much slower on the road.  This will be more of a half court game tonight folks.

Dallas is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine home games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more.  The UNDER is 17-8-2 in Suns last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 16-7 in the last 23 meetings in Dallas.  The UNDER is 23-5-1 in Mavericks last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-108)

The Cincinnati Reds are just 1-19 in their last 20 games overall with 18 of those 19 losses coming by two runs or more.  They are without two of their best hitters in Joey Votto and Jonathan India right now, plus Nick Senzel and Tyler Naquin due to COVID.  They are a joke of a team right now.

The Milwaukee Brewers are 13-3 in their last 16 games overall with 10 wins by two runs or more.  They'll go with Adrian Houser, who is 2-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in four starts this season, including 1-1 with a 0.77 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in two home starts.

He'll be opposed by Hunter Greene, who is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.612 WHIP in four starts this season.  Greene has allowed 12 earned runs, 5 homers and 29 base runners in 18 innings pitched.  He'll get rocked again today.

Milwaukee is 15-0 in its last 15 games vs. poor power teams that average 0.75 or fewer homers per game.  It is winning by 4.2 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks showed they could play with the Suns in Game 1 when they lost 114-121 as 5.5-point underdogs.  Now they come back as 6.5-point dogs in Game 2 and I like the value we are getting with them in what has to feel like a must-win for them.

We saw the Suns beat the Pelicans 110-99 in Game 1 and come back and lost 114-125 in Game 2 last series.  I think they will be vulnerable tonight after winning Game 1.  I expect the Mavericks to be the team playing with more intensity being down in this series, and that should be enough to stay within this number and possibly pull off the upset.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years.  Indeed, each of the last seven meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  That fact alone shows you there's value with the Mavericks catching 6.5 points tonight as the Suns have had a hard time putting them away, and the Mavericks simply have no quit in them.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a game where it was outrebounded by 15 or more this season.  It is coming back to win by a whopping 16.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Mavericks are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -131

The New York Yankees are 11-0 in their last 11 games overall.  They will be motivated to keep this winning streak going, and I like their chances tonight with a massive advantage on the mound over the Toronto Blue Jays.

Nestor Cortes has been one of the best starters in baseball this season.  He is 1-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.871 WHIP in four starts while allowing just 3 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings with a whopping 28 K's.  Cortes has posted a 1.74 ERA and 0.871 WHIP in two career starts against the Blue Jays, one of which came earlier this season.

Yusei Kikuchi is one of the weak links in this Toronto rotation.  He is 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in four starts this season and averaging just 3.7 innings per start.  Kikuchi is 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in five career starts against the Yankees.  One of those came opposite Cortes on April 12th earlier this season when he allowed 2 earned runs and 7 base runners in 3 1/3 innings of a 4-0 defeat.

New York is 7-1 in its last eight trips to Toronto.  Take the Yankees Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay Rays -120

The Tampa Bay Rays are far and away the better team than the Oakland A's and should be bigger favorites tonight.  But we are getting the Rays at a discount in this series after losing three out of four at home to the A's from April 11-14 as -220, -210 and -180 favorites.

I cashed the Rays as a free pick Monday at -154, and I cashed them Tuesday as a premium pick as -119 favorites.  I'm back on them in Game 3 today as -120 favorites.  The Rays are hitting the ball much better on the road this season, scoring 5.6 runs per game.  The A's are 4-8 at home and hitting .199 and scoring 3.0 runs per game as a team.  They have almost zero home-field advantage.

Corey Kluber has been solid at his new home in Tampa at 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in four starts.  He'll be opposed by Frankie Montas, who is 2-2 with a 4.25 ERA in five starts this season.  Kluber has posted a 2.36 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in eight career starts against the A's.

Tampa Bay is 45-18 in its last 63 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The A's are 0-5 in their last five home games.  The Rays are playing up to their potentially finally after a slow start to the season, and we're getting them at a great value currently.  Roll with the Rays Wednesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays -119

The Tampa Bay Rays are far and away the better team than the Oakland A's and should be bigger favorites tonight.  But we are getting the Rays at a discount in this series after losing three out of four at home to the A's from April 11-14 as -220, -210 and -180 favorites.

I cashed the Rays as a free pick yesterday at -154, and I'm definitely going to back them as a premium pick at -119 today.  The Rays are hitting the ball much better on the road this season, scoring 5.0 runs per game.  The A's are 4-7 at home and hitting .192 while scoring just 2.6 runs per game as a team.  They have almost zero home-field advantage.

Paul Blackburn is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after a shocking 3-0 start with a 1.35 ERA and 0.800 WHIP to boot.  But he's going to come back down to reality today.  Keep in mind Blackburn is still 9-11 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.399 WHIP across 158 innings in the big leagues, so this start is an aberration.

The Rays are 14-3 in Ryan Yarbrough's last 17 night starts.  Tampa Bay is 44-18 in its last 62 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The A's are 0-4 in their last four home games.  Bet the Rays Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies nearly pulled the upset over the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 despite not playing anywhere near their best game.  They shot just 41-of-95 (43.2%) from the field while the Warriors shot 45-of-93 (48.4%).  They only lost that game 116-117 and had a chance to win at the buzzer.

Look for the Grizzlies to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 tonight.  This has been a very resilient bunch all season.  In fact, the Grizzlies haven't lost more than two in a row since December, which just goes to show how resilient they are.  Memphis is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games following a loss.

The Grizzlies are 8-1 ATS in as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season.  The Grizzlies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Memphis is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The Grizzlies are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games overall.  Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Memphis.  Take the Grizzlies in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+100)

Death, taxes and fade the Reds on the Run Line.  The Reds are just 1-17 in their last 18 games overall with 16 of those 17 losses coming by two runs or more.  And we're getting the red hot Brewers at even money on the Run Line today.

The Brewers are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall with eight wins by two runs or more.  Brandon Woodruff is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.636 WHIP in two home starts this season.  Woodruff is also 1-0 with a 1.02 ERA in his last three starts against the Reds, allowing just 2 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings with 22 K's.

Tyler Mahle is 1-2 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in eight career starts against the Brewers, including 1-1 with a 6.04 ERA in his last five starts against them while allowing 17 earned runs in 25 1/3 innings.  Mahle is off to a rough start this season at 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in five starts, which is concerning considering he was supposed to be their ace.

The Brewers are 31-9 in Woodruff's last 40 starts during the first half of the season.  Milwaukee is 13-0 in its last 13 games vs. terrible power teams that average 0.75 or fewer homers per game.  They are winning by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Brewers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +111

I like the fact that the Red Sox had yesterday off while the Angels had to play the White Sox Monday.  The Red Sox will be the fresher team, and they will be highly motivated for a victory coming off a brutal 10-game road trip that included two losses to the Orioles to cap it off.

Now is a great time to 'buy low' on the Red Sox and 'sell high' on the Angels, who are now road favorites after winning seven of their last nine games overall.  Noah Syndergaard has posted solid numbers this season, but he is getting way too much respect from the books.

Michael Wacha's hot start is being overlooked by the books.  Wacha is 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.935 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing just 4 earned runs and 10 hits in 20 1/3 innings.  I expect him to continue his success against the Angels tonight.

Plays on home teams (Boston) - with a starting pitcher who allows 0.5 or fewer homers per start, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs is 50-18 (73.5%, +33.3 Units) over the last five seasons.  Boston is 23-6 in its last 29 home games following three consecutive division games.  Roll with the Red Sox Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston -4

The Boston Celtics shot 28-of-84 (33.3%) in Game 1.  That's not going to happen again.  There was clearly a rust factor for them after sweeping the Nets and being off since April 25th.  Look for them to be much sharper on offense, and for them to bring that same defensive intensity they have played with all season.

The Celtics held the Bucks to 37-of-90 (41.1%) shooting and just 101 points in Game 1.  If they can do that again in Game 2, they are going to win and cover with ease.  And that's what I expect to see happen here as they guard the Bucks as well as anyone in the NBA, and they get going offensively.

Boston is a perfect 9-0 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  It is coming back to win by 9.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Milwaukee is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog.  Boston is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Mavs/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215

The Dallas Mavericks are built for UNDERS.  They rank 30th in the NBA in pace this season at just 97.5 possessions per game.  They are 6th in defensive efficiency as well.  The Suns are 3rd in defensive efficiency, which has been the key to all their success this season.

Both the Mavericks and Suns have had three full days to prepare for one another.  I think that is going to favor the defenses.  Both teams have tremendous wing defenders and points will be much harder to come by for both teams than they were in the first round against the Jazz and Pelicans.

Phoenix and Dallas played three times in the regular season and we saw 203, 216 and 210 combined points in those three meetings.  I think there's value with the UNDER 215 in Game 1 of this series based off those results, especially with defensive intensity turned up a notch in the playoffs.

Dallas is 18-4 UNDER in its last 22 games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better.  The UNDER is 44-20 in Mavericks last 64 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Phoenix.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Suns last seven home games.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +122

The Seattle Mariners are one of the most underrated teams in baseball.  They have a great lineup that is producing 4.6 runs per game thus far, a rotation that doesn't get the credit it deserves, and a bullpen that has posted a 2.94 ERA in 79 2/3 innings pitched this season.

The Houston Astros are just 11-11 this season and hitting .215 and scoring 3.7 runs per game as a team.  Marco Gonzalez should shut them down as he has posted a 3.86 ERA in four starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Jake Odorizzi, who is 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in four starts for the Astros this season.

We saw this exact same matchup in Seattle on April 15th.  Gonzalez allowed just one earned run and four base runners in 7 innings, while Odorizzi gave up four earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 1/3 innings.  The Mariners won that game 11-1, and it should be more of the same here.

Gonzalez is now 2-1 with a 1.29 ERA in his last three starts against the Astros, allowing just 3 earned runs in 21 innings.  Seattle is a very profitable 36-33 (+13.5 Units) in Gonzalez's 69 career starts as an underdog of +100 or higher.  Take the Mariners Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays have the two best lineups in baseball.  That will be on display tonight in perfect hitting conditions inside the dome in Toronto as these offenses should light up these two starting pitchers.

The Yankees are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They have gone 9-0 in their last nine games while putting up an average of 7.4 runs per game during this winning streak.  The OVER is 6-2 in their last eight games overall as well.

The Blue Jays are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall.  Their offense has not lived up to its potential thus far and its going to be scary when it does.  Now that we're a month into the season, the Blue Jays should start raking like they're capable of.  They are scoring 4.5 runs per game at home this season.

Jordan Montgomery is 0-1 with a 5.78 ERA in his last four starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 12 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings.  Ross Stripling is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies ABC No-Brainer on OVER 221.5

This is a pretty quick turnaround for this series.  The Grizzlies only had one day off in between games and the Warriors had three days off since taking care of the Nuggets.  These teams aren't familiar with one another yet, and I think that favors the offenses in Game 1 today.

After all, these are the two highest-scoring teams in the playoffs thus far.  The Warriors averaged 118 points per game in their five-game series with the Nuggets and have scored at least 118 points in five of their last six games overall.  They are showing how dangerous they can be when healthy offensively.

The Grizzlies averaged 114.7 points per game in their six-game series with the Timberwolves.  We saw a very high-scoring Game 1 in that series that saw 247 combined points and went well OVER the total.  The Warriors combined for 230 points with the Nuggets in Game 1 last series and went OVER the number.

The OVER is 11-1 in Grizzlies last 12 playoff games as underdogs.  The OVER is 5-1 in Warriors last six games overall.  This 221.5-point total has been set too low for Game 1.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They are 8-0 in their last eight games overall and scoring 7.6 runs per game during this winning streak.  They have scored at least 10 runs in four of their last six games and have won seven of those eight games by 3 runs or more.

The Kansas City Royals are 2-7 in their last nine games overall with five losses by 3 runs or more.  Daniel Lynch has posted some decent numbers this season, but the Yankees have feasted on left-handed starters.  They are 6-1 against southpaws and scoring 5.4 runs per game.

The Yankees have a big advantage on the mound behind Luis Severino, who is 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in four starts this season with 19 K's in 19 innings.  The Yankees are 4-0 in Severino's four starts with all four wins coming by 2 runs or more.

New York is 101-44 in the last 145 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Kansas City.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +117

I love the spot for the Seattle Mariners today.  They are the better team in this matchup with the Miami Marlins, but that hasn't shown of late.  They have lost four straight while the Marlins have won seven straight.  That's why we are getting the Mariners as underdogs when we shouldn't be.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Mariners as they'll be highly motivated to avoid the sweep and put and end to this losing streak.  I like their chances with the underrated Logan Gilbert on the mound today.

Gilbert is 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA and 0.850 WHIP in four starts this season.  He has allowed just one earned run and 19 base runners with 22 K's in 22 1/3 innings this season.  He is quietly becoming one of the best starters in baseball and living up to his ace potential this season.

The Mariners are 10-0 in Gilbert's last 10 starts after he allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in two consecutive starts.  Seattle is 13-2 in Gilbert's last 15 starts with a money line of -125 to +125.  Roll with the Mariners Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres -1.5 (+105)

The San Diego Padres are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now.  They are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall and have scored at least 7 runs in five consecutive games.  It should be more of the same against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates today.

The Pirates are just 4-8 in their last 12 games overall and have scored 4 runs or fewer in 10 of those 12 games.  They won't be getting much off Joe Musgrove, who is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.880 WHIP in four starts this season.  The Padres are 4-0 in Musgrove's four starts with all four wins by 3 runs or more.

The Padres will stay hot at the plate against Mitch Keller, who is 0-3 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.641 WHIP in four starts this season.  The Pirates are 0-4 in Keller's four starts with all four losses by 2 runs or more.  Keller is 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in two career starts against San Diego as well.  Take the Padres on the Run Line Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They are 7-0 in their last seven games overall and scoring 8.3 runs per game during this winning streak.  They have scored at least 10 runs in four of their last five games.

Now they have their sights set on Carlos Hernandez of the Royals.  Hernandez is 0-0 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.787 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 10 earned runs and 25 base runners in 14 innings with only 5 K's.

Meanwhile, the Yankees send ace Gerrit Cole to the mound.  He is coming off a dominant start against the Guardians in which he pitched 6 2/3 shutout innings with 9 K's.  Cole is 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.862 WHIP in five career starts against the Royals.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres -154

The San Diego Padres are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now.  They are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and have scored at least 7 runs in four consecutive games.  It should be more of the same against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates today.

The Pirates are just 3-8 in their last 11 games overall and have scored 4 runs or fewer in 10 of those 11 games.  They won't get much off Sean Manaea, who is 2-2 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in four starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.538 WHIP in two road starts.

He'll be opposed by J.T. Brubaker, who is 0-2 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in four starts this season for the Pirates.  Brubaker allowed 2 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings of a 2-4 defeat to the Padres in his lone career start against them last season.

The Pirates are 1-14 in Brubaker's last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record and losing by 3.5 runs per game in this spot.  San Diego is 7-0 in its last seven games as a favorite.  Roll with the Padres Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +105

The Seattle Mariners are highly motivated for a victory Saturday after losing three straight games coming in.  The Miami Marlins are starting to get too much respect from the books after winning six consecutive games coming in.

Robbie Ray won the AL Cy Young last season and has picked up where he left off.  He is 2-1 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in four starts this season and was a great get for the Mariners to give them an ace at the top of their rotation.

Ray is much better than Jesus Luzardo, who is 1-1 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.256 WHIP this season and averaging only 4.8 innings per start.  Luzardo is 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in one career start against Seattle, while Ray is 4-3 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.007 WHIP in eight career starts against Miami.

The Marlins are 4-19 in their last 23 interleague games.  Miami is 2-15 in its last 17 games vs. AL teams that allow 4.4 or fewer runs per game.  The Marlins are 0-6 in their last six interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the Mariners Saturday.

20* Grizzlies/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 229

The longer a series goes on the more teams become familiar with one another.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  That has proven to be the case in this series between the Grizzlies and Timberwolves as well.

After combining for 247 points in Game 1, these teams have combined for 220 in Game 2, 199 in Game 3, 237 in Game 4 and 220 in Game 5.  And both teams shot lights out from 3 in that 237-point effort in Game 4 as the Timberwolves were 18-of-36 (50%) and the Grizzlies were 15-of-32 (46.9%).  That's unlikely to happen again.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (Minnesota) - a good offensive team that scores 114-118 PPG against an average defensive team that allows 108-114 PPG) after 42-plus games following a loss by 6 points or less are 32-9 (78%) since 1996.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Grizzlies last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Minnesota.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees -1.5 (-110)

The New York Yankees are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They are 6-0 in their last six games overall while scoring an average of 7.7 runs per game.  They should stay hot at the plate tonight against the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of this series.

The Yankees will tee off on Kris Bubic, who is 0-1 with a 14.14 ERA and 3.000 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 11 earned runs and 21 base runners in 7 innings.  Meanwhile, Nestor Cortes will shut down the Royals.  Cortes is 0-0 with a 1.15 ERA and 0.639 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing just 2 earned runs and 10 base runners in 15 2/3 innings with a whopping 25 K's.

The Royals are hitting .206 and scoring 2.6 runs per game at home this season.  Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres -1.5 (-105)

The San Diego Padres are crushing the ball right now.  They have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games overall with six victories by two runs or more.  I'll gladly back them on the Run Line today against the Pittsburgh Pirates with their big advantage on the mound and at the plate.

The Pirates have scored 4 runs or fewer in nine of their last 10 games overall while going 3-7 in those 10 games with six losses by two runs or more.  Zach Thompson has been brutal for the Pirates this season, going 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.700 WHIP in three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 27 base runners in 10 innings.

Thompson has never beaten the Padres, going 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in two career starts against them, which resulted in losses by 3 and 5 runs.  He'll be opposed by Yu Darvish, who is 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.781 WHIP in eight career starts against Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are 4-21 in their last 25 games following a game where their bullpen blew a save.  They are losing by 2.4 runs per game in this spot.  The Padres are 6-0 in their last six games as favorites.  Take the Padres on the Run Line Friday.

20* Mavs/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 209.5

The Dallas Mavericks made some great adjustments in their first three games of this series without Luka Doncic.  They played a much more free-flowing offense and hoisted a ton of 3's.  Both them and the Jazz shot very well in Games 2 and 3 that both went OVER the total.

But Doncic returned in Game 4 and it was slowed down to a snail's pace.  Both teams attempted fewer than 80 shots in a 100-99 victory for Utah and just 199 combined points.  It was more of the same in Game 5 with the Mavs winning 102-77 for just 179 combined points.  This 209.5-point total for Game 6 has been set way too high.

The Mavericks rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Jazz rank 22nd in pace.  The Mavericks are 6th in defensive efficiency while the Jazz are 10th in that same category.  Donovan Mitchell was noticeably limping as he got hurt late in Game 5.  He is expected to play but won't be 100%, and that's going to significantly hamper the Jazz offensively.  Take the UNDER in game 6 Thursday.

15* Suns/Pelicans TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 214.5

It's a miracle Games 3 and 4 in this series went OVER the total.  The UNDER was the right side in Game 3, but a flurry of points in the final minute sent it over as the Pelicans kept scoring and fouling.  It was 106-97 for just 203 combined points with 45 seconds to play.  Brandon Ingram scored 9 straight points thereafter and the Pelicans ended up losing 111-114 after a 3-pointer at the buzzer for 225 combined points.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 4 as well.  The Pelicans and Suns had combined for 200 points with 2:20 to go in a blowout.  But somehow the backups put up 21 points in that final 2:20 and they finished with 221 combined points.  

I took advantage of an inflated total in Game 5 and cashed the UNDER 215.5 in a game that saw 209 combined points.  Now I'm backing on the UNDER 214.5 for many of the same reasons in Game 6.  The longer a series goes, the more teams become familiar with one another and points get harder to come by.  Points are definitely harder for the Suns to come by without Devin Booker.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (New Orleans) - a poor defensive team that allows 46% shooting or higher, after five straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47% or higher are 26-8 (76.5%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER In Game 6 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Braves UNDER 8.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight on this 8.5-run total between the Cubs and Braves.  These starters are both too good and these lineups aren't exactly clicking this season, especially the Braves who are hitting .229 and scoring 3.9 runs per game.  Chicago's offensive numbers are inflated due to one outlier in a 21-0 win over the Pirates.

Drew Smyly has been solid this season for the Cubs at 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in three starts.  He'll be opposed by Kyle Wright, who has been as impressive as any starter in baseball this season.  Wright is 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA and 0.765 WHIP while allowing just 2 earned runs and 13 base runners in 17 innings with a whopping 26 K's to boot.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Cubs last five games overall.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Braves last 10 games during Game 3 of a series.  The UNDER is 11-5-1 in Braves last 17 home games.  The UNDER is 32-15-4 in Braves last 51 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* 76ers/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto ML +105

All the pressure is on Doc Rivers, Joel Embiid, James Harden and company.  The 76ers are on the verge of blowing a 3-0 series lead, and if anyone could do it it's Doc.  He is 3-11 in his last 14 close out games including 1-7 in his last eight.  You can tell he's feeling the pressure based off his press conferences, trying to defend himself at all costs.

Realistically, the Raptors should be up 3-2 in this series.  They lost at home in Game 3 despite never trailing in regulation.  They came back with a 110-102 home victory in Game 4 and a 103-88 upset road win in Game 5.  They have all the momentum right now and feel like they are playing on house money.

The loss of Fred VanVleet isn't as big as it's made out to be.  The Raptors are now much longer on the perimeter which is causing the 76ers problems on offense, averaging just 95 points per game in their last two.  Joel Embiid is clearly bothered by his thumb injury, and James Harden just can't be trusted in big games.

The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on two days' rest.  The Raptors are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Raptors on the Money Line Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +150

It's safe to say the Cleveland Guardians will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight, including the first three games of this series to the Angels.  Now is a great time to 'buy low' on the Guardians as they will be motivated to avoid the sweep.

Cal Quantrill has been solid for the Guardians this season at 1-0 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in three starts.  Quantrill faced the Angels last season and shut them out in 7 innings with 9 K's in a 3-0 victory.

Reid Detmers is clearly the weakest link in this Los Angeles rotation.  Detmers is 0-1 with a 6.57 ERA in three starts this season.  He faced the Guardians once last season, allowing 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 3 2/3 innings of a 5-1 defeat.

The Guardians are 36-17 in their last 53 during Game 4 of a series.  Cleveland is 4-1 in its last five games after losing the first three games of a series.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

15* Bulls/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 217.5

The Bulls are broken on offense in this series.  They have scored 81, 86 and 95 points in their three losses.  Now they will be without both Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso tonight.  Both of these guys are great at penetrating and finding open teammates, and they will be even more lost on offense without them tonight.

The Bucks aren't exactly blowing the doors off of the Bulls on offense, either.  They are averaging just 108.3 points per game in this series.  They are without Khris Middleton, and the Bulls have done a pretty good job of defending in this series.  Giannis will continue to get his but they have held mostly everyone else in check.

Milwaukee is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 home games following a blowout road win by 20 points or more.  Chicago is 16-4 UNDER vs. division opponents this season.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.  The UNDER is 4-0 in this series.  Roll with the UNDER in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Nationals UNDER 7.5

Two terrible offenses square off tonight when the Miami Marlins continue their series with the Washington Nationals.  The Marlins are hitting .242 and scoring 4.0 runs per game this season, including .232 and 3.7 on the road.  The Nationals are hitting .224 and scoring 3.4 runs per game this season, including .196 and 2.3 at home.

Pablo Lopez is one of the best starters in baseball.  He is 2-0 with a 0.52 ERA and 0.750 WHIp in three starts this season while allowing just one earned run and 13 base runners in 17 1/3 innings.  Lopez is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his last four starts against the Nationals while allowing only 4 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings.

Erick Fedde owns the Marlins, going 4-0 with a 1.43 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  He has allowed only 4 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings in his last six starts against them.

Washington is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 home games after scoring 3 runs or less in three consecutive games.  There will be 13 MPH winds blowing in from left-center and temps in the 40's for this game tonight to help aid us in cashing this UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego Padres -163

The Cincinnati Reds are 1-12 in their last 13 games overall.  They have scored 2 runs or fewer in eight of their last 10 games and are hitting just .189 and scoring 297 runs per game this season.  The Padres will make easy work of them tonight.

Mackenzie Gore is one of the top prospects for the Padres and has been impressive this season.  Gore is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in two starts.  One of those starts came against the Reds last time out when he shut them out in 5 innings with 7 K's of a 6-0 victory.

Vladimir Gutierrez is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 0-3 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has never beaten the Padres, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in three career starts against them.  One of those starts came opposite Gore in his last outing as he allowed 3 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of that 6-0 defeat.

Not only are the Reds 1-12 in their last 13 games overall, but all 12 losses have come by two runs or more.  Bet the Padres Wednesday.

15* Pelicans/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5

It's a miracle Games 3 and 4 in this series went OVER the total.  The OVER has hit in three consecutive games now, which is why the books haven't adjusted this total as low as it should be tonight.  We'll take advantage and cash in the UNDER.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 3, but a flurry of points in the final minute sent it over as the Pelicans kept scoring and fouling.  It was 106-97 for just 203 combined points with 45 seconds to play.  Brandon Ingram scored 9 straight points thereafter and the Pelicans ended up losing 111-114 after a 3-pointer at the buzzer for 225 combined points.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 4 as well.  The Pelicans and Suns had combined for 200 points with 2:20 to go in a blowout.  But somehow the backups put up 21 points in that final 2:20 and they finished with 221 combined points.  I have a hard time believing we're gonna get another flurry of points to send this one over the number for a third consecutive game.

Teams become more familiar with one another the longer a series goes on.  That favors defense and low scoring games.  I fully expect this to be the lowest-scoring game of the entire series as we easily cash this UNDER 215.5 in Game 5.  There's a lot at stake here with the series tied 2-2 and this will become a half court game with points at a premium.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6

I was on the Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 in Game 2 after dropping Game 1 to the Timberwolves.  They delivered with a 124-96 blowout victory.  I'm definitely backing the Grizzlies again here in Game 5 as only 6-point home favorites after dropping Game 4 118-119 as 2.5-point road favorites.  Oddsmakers aren't adjusting enough for the spot for the Grizzlies here.

The Timberwolves shot lights out in Game 4 and still only won by a single point.  They shot 47.3% from the field including 18-of-36 (50%) from 3-point range.  Not to mention, they made a whopping 31 free throws.  They played the perfect game at home in Game 4, but they will be far from perfect on the road in Game 5.

Memphis is 13-2 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Grizzlies are 14-3 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Timberwolves are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  Memphis is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 home games.  The Grizzlies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Memphis is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home meetings with Minnesota.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 233

Teams become more familiar with one another the longer a series goes on.  That favors defense and low scoring games.  There's a lot at stake here with the series tied 2-2 heading into Game 5.  I expect points to be at a premium and for this game to be played at the slowest pace of the entire series thus far.

These teams went well UNDER the number in Games 2 and 3.  The Timberwolves and Grizzlies combined for just 220 points in Game 2 and 199 points in Game 3.  Game 4 was well on the way to another UNDER until a flurry of points in the final minutes.  They had combined for just 218 points with 2:45 to play, but combined for 19 points in that final 2:45 to go over the number and finish with 237 combined points.

Now the books have set the number even higher for Game 5 at 233 points and I think there's tremendous value with the UNDER.  Both teams shot lights out in Game 4 and it's unlikely to happen again.  The Grizzlies shot 15-of-32 (46.9%) from 3-points range and the Timberwolves shot 18-of-36 (50%) from distance, yet they still only managed 237 combined points.  Just a slight drop in shooting for both teams will have us cashing in this UNDER with ease.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Memphis) - after covering two of their last three ATS, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 71-32 (68.9%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +152

The Colorado Rockies are one of the most improved teams in MLB this season.  They are 10-6 while scoring 4.6 runs per game on the season.  They should not be this big of underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies, who are struggling at 7-10 this season.

I would argue the Rockies have the advantage on the mound tonight.  German Marquez is the ace of their rotation and has owned the Phillies.  Marquez is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA in seven career starts against Philadelphia.

Zach Eflin is 0-1 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in three starts this season.  He is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  That's especially the case when you consider Eflin is 1-3 with a 7.18 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in five career starts against the Rockies.

The Rockies are 10-4 in their last 14 games overall while the Phillies are 4-9 in their last 13 games overall.  Colorado is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Take the Rockies Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -1.5 (+105)

The Cincinnati Reds are 1-11 in their last 12 games overall.  They have scored 2 runs or fewer in eight of their last nine games and are hitting just .186 and scoring 2.7 runs per game this season.  The Padres will make easy work of them tonight.

Joe Musgrove will shut down this putrid Cincinnati offense.  Musgrove is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing just 4 earned runs and 14 base runners in 19 innings with 21 K's.  He's becoming the ace of this rotation.

Reiver Sanmartin is 0-2 with an 11.75 ERA and 2.350 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 18 base runners in 7 2/3 innings.  He faced the Padres in his last start on April 19th and allowed 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 2-6 loss opposite Musgrove.

Not only are the Reds 1-11 in their last 12 games overall, all 11 losses have come by two runs or more.  Bet the Padres on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* Jazz/Mavs TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 213

The Dallas Mavericks made some great adjustments in their first three games of this series without Luka Doncic.  They played a much more free-flowing offense and hoisted a ton of 3's.  Both them and the Jazz shot very well in Games 2 and 3 that both went OVER the total.

But Doncic returned in Game 4 and it was slowed down to a snail's pace.  Both teams attempted fewer than 80 shots in a 100-99 victory for Utah and just 199 combined points.  This game will be played at a snail's pace as well with Doncic back and what's at stake in Game 5 with this series tied 2-2 heading back to Dallas.

The Mavericks rank dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Jazz rank 22nd in pace.  The Mavericks are 6th in defensive efficiency while the Jazz are 10th in that same category.  Utah attempted 42 free throws and still managed just 100 points last game.  The Mavericks have them locked down defensively right now.

The UNDER is 11-3 in Jazz last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 47-20-1 in Mavericks last 68 home games.  Take the UNDER in Game 5 Monday.

20* Raptors/76ers NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto +7.5

The Toronto Raptors played two great games in Toronto and really this series should be tied 2-2.  But the 76ers won Game 3 despite not leading a single second in regulation.  And in Game 4 they failed to close out the series when they had the Raptors by the balls.

I think the 76ers are going to regret not closing it out, and the Raptors are live underdogs in Game 5 tonight as 7.5-point dogs.  The FT shooting disparity that gave the 76ers a 2-0 series lead has gone away, and the Raptors have gotten much more aggressive in attacking the rim the past two games.

Joel Embiid is nursing a thumb injury that he is playing through, but he clearly wasn't himself in Game 4.  We've seen Doc Rivers and James Harden collapse in playoff series previously.  All the pressure is on the 76ers to close this out in Game 5 and the Raptors feel like they are free rolling at this point after being down 3-0.  They should come out loose while the 76ers will be tight tonight.

Philadelphia has beaten Toronto by more than 7 points just twice in the last 16 meetings, making for a 14-2 system backing the Raptors pertaining to this 7.5-point spread.  Bet the Raptors in Game 5 Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +137

I've been riding the St. Louis Cardinals and I'm going to continue to ride them until the oddsmakers adjust to how good this team really is.  They are 9-5 this season despite playing 10 road games compared to four home games.  They are 3-1 at home and are now back home hosting the New York Mets.

The Cardinals have an underrated lineup, one of the top bullpens in baseball and the underrated Miles Mikolas on the mound tonight.  Mikolas is 1-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in three starts this season and the Cardinals are 3-0 in his three starts despite being underdogs in two of them.

No question Max Scherzer is one of the best starters in baseball, but he and the Mets should not be this big of road favorites over the Cardinals tonight.  The Mets have feasted on a pretty weak schedule en route to their 12-5 starts with two of their last three series coming against the Diamondbacks.  They also swept the Nationals in three games to open the season.

Mikolas is a perfect 6-0 against the money line as a dog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons.  New York is 11-30 in its last 41 vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 13-4 in its last 17 games as underdogs.  The Cardinals are 35-16 in their last 51 games overall.  St. Louis is 10-3 in its last 13 meetings with New York.  Roll with the Cardinals Monday.

20* Suns/Pelicans TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216

The Suns and Pelicans have gone OVER the total in each of their last two games after going UNDER in Game 1.  I think we are getting value with the UNDER in Game 4 based off of the results in the last two games.  This total should be set much lower than 216 tonight.

The UNDER was the right side in Game 2, but a flurry of points in the final minute sent it over as the Pelicans kept scoring and fouling.  It was 106-97 for just 203 combined points with 45 seconds to play.  Brandon Ingram scored 9 straight points thereafter and the Pelicans ended up losing 111-114 after a 3-pointer at the buzzer for 225 combined points.

Game 3 was played at a snail's pace and that will be the case again for Game 4.  The Suns just aren't as explosive on offense without their best player in Devin Booker, and they have to go to more of a half court game.  The Pelicans don't have great 3-point shooting and settle for a lot of mid-range jumpers, which makes them a great UNDER candidate.  They also rank just 21st in pace and 20th in offensive efficiency.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Heat/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Miami -2

The Miami Heat will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 tonight after blowing a double-digit lead in Game 3 in the 4th quarter and letting the Hawks back in this series.  Look for them to shut the door here and get a win and cover in Game 4.

I made the mistake of backing a team that doesn't rebound or play defense in the Nets yesterday.  I'm not making the same mistake today.  The Hawks rank 26th in defensive efficiency while the Heat rank 5th in defensive efficiency.  I'll back the better defensive team here in a game they basically just have to win to cover.

Atlanta is 1-11 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season.  Miami is 17-4 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Miami is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Heat are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 playoff games as favorites.  The Hawks are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games following a win.  Miami is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Heat Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -179

The Seattle Mariners are 7-2 in their last nine games overall.  They have scored 4 runs or more in all seven victories and 4 runs or more in eight of their last 10 games overall.  I'm willing to lay the big juice on them today due to their massive advantage on the mound in this one.

Robbie Ray won the AL Cy Young last year and gives the Mariners a bonafide ace at the top of their rotation.  He has been solid this season through three starts with a 4.19 ERA and 1.242 WHIP.  Ray has posted a 1.35 ERA in two career starts against the Royals.

Carlos Hernandez is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has posted a 7.27 ERA and 1.963 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 8 2/3 innings with only one strikeout.  The Mariners are hitting .284 and scoring 7.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  

Seattle is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Kansas City is 3-8 in its last 11 games overall.  The Royals have scored 3 runs or fewer in six of their last eight games overall.  Bet the Mariners Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -135

The St. Louis Cardinals are 9-4 this season.  They have one of the best lineups in the National League.  They are scoring 4.5 runs per game.  They also have one of the best bullpens in baseball with a 2.06 ERA in 52 1/3 innings pitched.

The Cincinnati Reds are 0-11 in their last 11 games overall.  They have scored two or fewer runs in eight consecutive games.  They are hitting just .180 and scoring 2.6 runs per game this season.  They are broken right now and missing three key players in C Stephenson, 3B Moustakas, and 2B India.

Adam Wainwright just keeps on ticking.  He went 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 32 starts last season.  He has picked up where he left off, going 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA in three starts this season.  He will shut down this atrocious Cincinnati lineup.

Nick Lodolo is 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two starts this season.  He has already allowed 8 earned runs, 18 base runners and 3 homers in 9 innings pitched.  The Cardinals will feast on him today and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Brooklyn Nets -2.5

The Brooklyn Nets gave the Boston Celtics all they could handle in Games 1 and 2 in Boston.  Now they are in must-win mode here in Game 3 at home and I expect them to get the win and cover.  It was a hostile atmosphere in Boston with all the controversy surrounding Kyrie Irving and they actually handled themselves pretty well.

It will be a much more friendly atmosphere in Brooklyn this time around, and I expect the Nets' role players to answer the bell here to help out Irving and Kevin Durant.  Durant has been disappointing through two games in this series, but he has too much pride to come up short again.  

He went 4-of-17 in Game 2 and 9-of-24 in Game 1.  That's a combined 13-of-41 (31.7%) through two games.  It's amazing that the Nets had a chance to win both of those games in the closing seconds with Durant playing that poorly.  Look for him to have a monster game to lead the Nets to victory and save their season here tonight.

Brooklyn is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home meetings with Boston.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -108

The St. Louis Cardinals are 8-4 this season.  They have one of the best lineups in the National League.  They are scoring 4.5 runs per game.  They also have one of the best bullpens in baseball with a 2.16 ERA in 50 innings pitched.

The Cincinnati Reds are 0-10 in their last 10 games overall.  They have scored two or fewer runs in seven consecutive games.  They are hitting just .184 and scoring 2.8 runs per game this season.  They are broken right now and missing four key players in C Stephenson, 3B Moustakas, 2B India and CF Naquin.

Dakota Hudson should shut down the struggling Reds.  Hudson has never lost to the Reds, going 5-0 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  Tyler Mahle is 3-3 with a 4.60 ERA in 12 career starts against the Cardinals.  Mahle has allowed 11 runs, 8 earned, in 7 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  Roll with the Cardinals Saturday.

20* 76ers/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Toronto +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Toronto Raptors in Game 4 tonight.  They were 4.5-point road dogs in Game 1, 7.5-point road dogs in Game 2 and 2-point home dogs in Game 3.  They went 0-3 ATS and now are getting their best price of the series as 3.5-point home dogs in Game 4.

Note that they were 4.5-point road dogs at full strength.  They will be at full strength here with the return of Scottie Barnes and are 3.5-point home dogs.  That's a massive adjustment and one that I'll gladly take advantage of.  The Raptors are much better than they have shown in the first three games of this series.

Keep in mind the 76ers didn't lead Game 3 until overtime, so the Raptors were in control of that game even without Barnes.  Getting him back with give them a big offensive punch.  The 76ers will be without Matisse Thybulle, and his defensive presence will be felt.  Joel Embiid is also dealing with a sore thumb, though he's expected to play.

Toronto is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Philadelphia is 9-18 ATS off a road win this season.  The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on two days' rest.  Philadelphia is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 trips to Toronto.  Take the Raptors Saturday.

20* Suns/Pelicans ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -1

The Phoenix Suns have proven all season that they can win games without Chris Paul and/or Devin Booker.  They won't blink with Booker being out now as they are one of the deepest teams in the entire NBA and work together as a team as well as anyone.

The Suns go from being 10-point favorites in Game 1 to 9.5-point favorites in Game 2 to only 1-point favorites in Game 3.  This is too big of an adjustment for the Booker injury and the home-court advantage for the Pelicans.  The Suns are 32-9 SU on the road this season.

I'm confident the Suns will make the defensive adjustments and the Pelicans will not shoot as well as they did in Game 2.  They shot 54.8% from the field and a ridiculous 17-of-30 (56.7%) from 3-point range.  This is a poor shooting Pelicans team that is only making 33.5% from 3 on the season.

Phoenix is 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more more this season.  The Suns are 14-3 ATS when revenging any loss this season.  Phoenix is 14-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to New Orleans.

Plays against home underdogs (New Orleans) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog with a losing record on the season are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners -124

The Seattle Mariners are on a roll right now in going 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming after a 5-0 blown lead to the Rangers in which they gave up four unearned runs.  They have scored 4 or more runs in six of their last seven games.

Now the Mariners should tee off on Brad Keller and the Kansas City Royals tonight.  Keller has never beaten the Mariners, going 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in three career starts against Seattle.

Chris Flexen went 14-6 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 31 starts for the Mariners last season.  He is off to a shaky start this season, which is why we are getting him at a discount.  Flexen faced the Royals once last year and held them to one earned run in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-2 victory.

Seattle is 9-2 in its last 11 during Game 1 of a series.  The Mariners are 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.  Seattle is 6-1 in its last seven home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Mariners Friday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -112

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in baseball this season.  They have a solid lineup that is scoring 4.5 runs per game and a dynamite bullpen that sports a 2.15 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 46 innings pitched.  They just don't have the name value in their starting rotation, which is why they are underrated.

Steven Matz had a great season in Toronto last season going 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA in 29 starts.  That was in the tough AL East, and the Cardinals made a great signing this offseason by snatching him up.  He is off to a slow start, which is why he is such a short favorite here, and it's a great time to 'buy low'.

The Cincinnati Reds are broken.  They are 2-11 this season and hitting .177 as a team while scoring just 2.8 runs per game.  Their bullpen has posted a 4.47 ERA and 1.380 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings.  Matz will shut them down, and the Cardinals will score enough runs off of prospect Hunter Greene to get the victory.  Greene has posted a 4.36 ERA in two starts this season while already allowing three homers in 10 1/3 innings.

The Reds are 0-9 in their last nine games overall and have scored two runs or fewer in six consecutive games.  Take the Cardinals Friday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -125

The Seattle Mariners are one of the most underrated teams in baseball and have the best squad they have had in years.  They are 4-1 at home this season and looking to sweep the Rangers after winning 6-2 and 4-2 in the first two games of this series.

The Rangers have the worst pitching staff in baseball which is why they are just 2-9 this season.  Opponents are hitting .288 and scoring 6.3 runs per game against the Rangers.  Taylor Hearn is 0-1 with a 4.69 ERA and 2.086 WHIP in his two starts for the Rangers this season.  Texas' bullpen has a 5.43 ERA while allowing 33 earned runs in 54 2/3 innings.

Marco Gonzales has been solid in two starts for the Mariners this season with a 3.00 ERA against the Astros and Twins.  Gonzalez owns the Rangers, going 8-6 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 16 career starts against them, including 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA in his final three starts against them last season while allowing just 2 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings.   Hearn is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in three career starts against the Mariners.

Texas is 16-53 in its last 69 road games.  The Rangers are 4-25 in their last 29 road games vs. AL teams that allow 4.4 or fewer runs per game.  Seattle is 22-6 in the last 28 meetings.  Take the Mariners Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 210.5

The Dallas Mavericks rank 6th in defensive efficiency this season.  They rank dead last in pace (30th) this season and prefer to slow it down to a snail's pace.  The Jazz are 10th in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace, so they are built for UNDERS as well.  Plus they have the best defender in the NBA in Rudy Gobert locking down the paint.

The total was 208 for Game 1 and these teams combined for just 192 points.  The total was 207 for Game 2 and they combined for 214 points.  This total has been set higher after that Game 2 performance and with the anticipation that Luka Doncic may return.  Even if he does he won't be anywhere near 100% with that calf injury.

It's going to be hard to see the Mavericks shoot as well as they did in Game 2 where they shot 22-of-47 (46.8%) from 3-point range.  The Jazz weren't bad themselves as they shot 11-of-29 (37.9%) from distance.  Each of the first two games in this series were played at snail's paces, and I think that will be the case in Game 3 again, so I'll take my chances with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 43-19 in Mavericks last 62 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 23-11-1 in Jazz last 35 games as favorites.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Jazz last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +116

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in baseball this season.  They are scoring 5.0 runs per game behind one of the best lineups in the National League.  Their bullpen has posted a 1.76 ERA in 41 innings pitched.  It's because they don't have name value in their starting rotation that they remain undervalued.

I'll gladly back the Cardinals as underdogs today to the lowly Miami Marlins, who are hitting .231 and scoring 3.6 runs per game as a team.  They have a lot of flashy young starters in their rotation and that's why they get respect.  Pablo Lopez is one of those flashy starters, but the Marlins have lost both of his career starts against the Cardinals due to a lack of run support.

Jordan Hicks will get his first start of the season for the Cardinals.  He has posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in his four seasons in the big leagues.  He has pitched four shutout innings while allowing just three base runners thus far this season.  He will shut down the Marlins before turning it over to this dominant St. Louis bullpen.

The Cardinals are 26-8 in their last 34 road games.  St. Louis is 39-14 in its last 53 trips to Miami.  The Cardinals are 8-0 in their last eight meetings with the Marlins.  Miami is 17-51 in its last 68 games after scoring two runs or fewer in its previous game.  Roll with the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Bulls/Bucks TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls in Game 2 of this series.  They were disinterested down the stretch and as a result went 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their final five games.  They were pretty much locked into the 5th or 6th seed at that point with nothing to play for.

The Bulls played with a sense of urgency in Game 1 and showed they could hang with the Bucks, losing  86-93 as 10.5-point underdogs.  What really stood out in that game is how poorly the Big 3 of Chicago in Vucevic, DeRozan and LaVine shot the ball and they still only lost by 7.  Those 3 combined to shoot just 21-of-71 (29.6%) from the floor and 4-of-22 (18.2%) from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot that poorly again, which makes it likely they cover this 10-point spread.

Milwaukee likely thinks they can just show up and win after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Bulls in the regular season.  That places the Bulls in major revenge mode here.  Also two of those wins and covers came at the end of the season when the Bucks had a lot more to play for in terms of seeding than the Bulls did.  The first two meetings this season were close and decided by 4 and 6 points, similar to the 7-point margin in Game 1 of this series when both teams were 'all in'.

Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Chicago is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Milwaukee.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto +2

I love the Toronto Raptors tonight in this must-win situation.  They return home after losing two disappointing, non-competitive games against the 76ers in Philadelphia.  Home-court advantage and coaching adjustment will make all the difference for the Raptors in Game 3 as they win this game outright.

Everything has gone perfect for the 76ers thus far in this series.  They shot 51.2% as a team, 16-of-32 (50%) from 3-point range and 29-of-34 (85.3%) from the FT line in Game 1.  They followed that up with 52.2% shooting, 14-of-30 (64.7%) from 3-point range and 26-of-30 (86.7%) from the FT line in Game 2.

The 76ers are shooting better than the Raptors in this series from 3-point range, and they have attempted 64 FT compared to 35 for the Raptors and made 55 FT compared to 29 for the Raptors.  That has been the difference.  I highly doubt the whistle will go so much in favor of the 76ers in Toronto like it has in Philadelphia in this series.  The 76ers won't have SG Mattisse Thybulle for this one, arguably their best defender.

Toronto is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following two straight losses by 15 points or more.  The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs.  a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Toronto is 4-0 ATS In its last four games as a home underdog.  Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Toronto.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +129

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in baseball this season.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game behind one of the best lineups in the National League.  Their bullpen has posted a 1.95 ERA in 37 innings pitched.  It's because they don't have name value in their starting rotation that they remain undervalued.

I'll gladly back the Cardinals as underdogs today to the lowly Miami Marlins, who are hitting .239 and scoring 4.0 runs per game as a team.  They have a lot of flashy young starters in their rotation and that's why they get respect.  Sandy Alcantara is one of those starters, who has posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in two starts this season.  Alcantara is 0-3 in three career starts against St. Louis.

Miles Mikolas is off to a solid start this season at 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in two starts.  Mikolas is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in five career starts against the Marlins.  He and the Cardinals should not be underdogs in this game tonight.

The Cardinals are 25-8 in their last 33 road games.  St. Louis is 38-14 in its last 52 trips to Miami.  The Cardinals are 7-0 in their last seven meetings with the Marlins.  Miami is 17-50 in its last 67 games after scoring two runs or fewer in its previous game.  Roll with the Cardinals Wednesday.

20* AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -128

The Seattle Mariners should be bigger favorites over the Texas Rangers with 2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray taking the ball.  Ray went 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in 32 starts for the Blue Jays last season with a whopping 248 K's in 193 1/3 innings.

Ray should shut down a poor Texas lineup that is off to just a 2-7 start this season.  The Rangers have a terrible pitching staff as well and will give the ball to Jon Gray, who allowed 3 earned runs in 4 innings to the Blue Jays in an 8-10 loss in his first start this season.  Ray fired 6 2/3 shutout innings in a 10-2 win over Texas in his lone start against the Rangers last season.

Texas is 4-26 in its last 30 road games vs. AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer runs per game.  The Rangers are 16-51 in their last 67 road games.  The Mariners are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.  Seattle is 8-2 in its last 10 during Game 1 of a series.  The Mariners are 20-6 in the last 26 meetings and 23-7 in the last 30 meetings in Seattle.  Take the Mariners Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5

The Memphis Grizzlies will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight after getting upset in Game 1.  A lot went right for the Timberwolves in that contest as they scored 130 points and shot 50% as a team, went 16-of-41 (39%) from 3-point range and 24-of-27 (88.9%) from the FT line.

Things couldn't have gone much worse for the Grizzlies, who shot 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3-point range and missed 11 free throws.  They will be much sharper offensively in Game 2, and I look for the Timberwolves to take a step back offensively.  Minnesota won't be able to match Memphis' intensity in this one, either.

Memphis won by 7 and 8 points in its first two home meetings with Minnesota this season.  I look for the Grizzlies to win by 7-plus points again here to cover this 6.5-point spread, and actually expect them to win by double-digits in a rout.

Memphis is 19-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  The Grizzlies are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points.  Memphis is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 home meetings with Minnesota.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -105

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in baseball this season.  They have one of the best lineups in the National League scoring 5.4 runs per game this season and a tremendous bullpen that has posted a 2.14 ERA thus far.

I'll gladly fade the Miami Marlins, who are hitting .239 and scoring 4.3 runs per game as a team this season.  I'll also gladly fade Miami starter Jesus Luzardo, who is 9-11 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in his four seasons in the big leagues across 171 1/3 innings pitched.

I'll gladly back Adam Wainwright, who just keeps on ticking.  He went 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 32 starts last season and has shown no signs of slowing down.  Wainwright is 6-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Marlins.

The Cardinals are 24-7 in their last 31 games overall.  St. Louis is 14-3 in its last 17 games vs. a left-handed starter, including 9-1 in its last 10 road games vs. a southpaw.  The Cardinals are 15-3 in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 40-16 in the last 56 meetings in Miami and 6-0 in the last six meetings overall.  Roll with the Cardinals Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +152

The Colorado Rockies have been impressive this season en route to a 6-3 start.  They are hitting .277 as a team and scoring 5.1 runs per game.  They were dominant at home last year and should not be big home underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.

Aaron Nola is one of the most overrated starters in baseball as he is continuously priced as an elite starter.  Nola is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts while season while allowing 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 7 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Rockies.

Chad Kuhl held the Rangers to one earned run in 4 1/3 innings of a 4-1 victory at Texas in his first start this season.  Kuhl has never lost to the Phillies, going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Philadelphia is 1-7 in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Colorado is 21-5 in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockies are 9-2 in their last 11 home meetings with the Phillies.  Roll with the Rockies Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 206.5

Having no Luka Doncic is going to significantly hamper the Dallas Mavericks on offense in this series.  But they showed earlier this season they could be competitive without him by playing lockdown defense.  And I expect that to be the case in this series, thus I'm taking the UNDER in Game 2 again Monday after cashing in the UNDER in Game 1 in a 99-93 final for just 192 combined points.

The Mavericks rank 6th in defensive efficiency this season and are an even better defensive team without Doncic.  They rank dead last in pace (30th) this season and will control the tempo playing at home, slowing it down to a snail's pace.  The Jazz are 10th in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace, so they are built for UNDERS as well.  Plus they have the best defender in the NBA in Rudy Gobert locking down the paint.

Dallas is 9-1 UNDER In home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The Mavericks are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight home games after a combined score of 195 points or less.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Jazz last 11 games as road favorites.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Jazz last 13 road games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Dallas.  The UNDER is 47-19-1 in Mavericks last 67 home games.  Take the UNDER in Game 2 Monday.

20* Raptors/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Toronto +7.5

This is too big of an adjustment from Game 1 to Game 2 in this series.  The Raptors go from being 4.5-point dogs in Game 1 to 7.5-point dogs in Game 2.  I realize Scottie Barnes is out, but he's not worth 3 points to the spread.

The 76ers played the perfect Game 1 as their role players crushed it and they shot 16-of-32 (50%) from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot that well again.  The Raptors are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and underrated head coach Nick Nurse will make the proper adjustments to make them much more competitive in Game 2.

That was a rare blowout in this series.  In fact, each of the previous eight games between the 76ers and Raptors were decided by 7 points or less.  Toronto has only lost one of its last 13 games against Philadelphia by more than 7 points, which makes for a 12-1 system backing the Raptors pertaining to this 7.5-point spread.  Bet the Raptors in Game 2 Monday.

20* Bulls/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Chicago +11

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls in Game 1 of this series.  They were disinterested down the stretch and as a result went 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their final five games.  They were pretty much locked into the 5th or 6th seed at that point with nothing to play for.

Now the Bulls will come back with an inspired effort in Game 1 to prove they can play with the defending champs.  I don't see the Bucks playing with that same sense of urgency in these playoffs as they did last year when they won the title.  And that starts to show in Game 1 tonight.

Milwaukee likely thinks they can just show up and win after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Bulls in the regular season.  That places the Bulls in major revenge mode here.  Also two of those wins and covers came at the end of the season when the Bucks had a lot more to play for in terms of seeding than the Bulls did.  The first two meetings this season were close and decided by 4 and 6 points.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (Chicago) - playing with triple revenge and on three or more days' rest are 49-21 (70%) ATS since 1996.  The Bulls are fully healthy now with the exception of Lonzo Ball and ready to get back to how they were playing in the first half of the season.  Bet the Bulls in Game 1 Sunday.

15* Rays/White Sox AL ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay -103

The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday.  They have lost four straight coming in after a 4-1 start to the season.  Now they will be looking to avoid the sweep after a pair of one-run losses to the White Sox in the first two games of this series.

I'll gladly fade gas can Vincent Velasquez.  He went 3-9 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in 94 1/3 innings last season.  He posted a 7.27 ERA and 1.846 WHIP in spring training while allowing three homers and seven earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.

Tampa Bay is 35-17 in its last 52 games after losing the first two games of a series.  Roll with the Rays Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees have a big advantage on the mound and at the plate today over the Baltimore Orioles that should have them winning this game by two runs or more with ease.  I cashed in the Yankees -1.5 in their 5-2 victory yesterday and I'm back on them again on the Run Line today.

Nestor Cortes was sharp in his first start this season in holding the potent Blue Jays without a single run in 4 1/3 innings while allowing just three base runners and registering 5 K's.  Cortes has posted a 1.50 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in two career starts against the Orioles, both of which came last season.

Bruce Zimmerman is a gas can.  He allowed 4 earned runs, two homers and 10 base runners in 3 2/3 innings of a 5-1 loss to the Yankees in his only start against them last season.  Zimmerman is 4-5 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 75 1/3 innings in the big leagues.

The Orioles are hitting .198 and scoring 2.0 runs per game this season.  Baltimore is 8-29 in its last 37 games as a home dog of +125 to +175 and losing by 2.7 runs per game.  The Orioles are 1-15 in their last 16 home games vs. good fielding teams that average 0.5 or fewer errors per game and losing by 3.8 runs per game in this spot.  New York is 7-0 in its last seven road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Yankees are 42-15 in the last 57 meetings, including 25-8 in the last 33 meetings in Baltimore.  Take the Yankees on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees have too much firepower throughout their lineup to be held down for much longer.  I fully expect them to break out against the Baltimore Orioles today after losing 2-1 as -210 favorites yesterday.  So I'll back them on the Run Line here Saturday.

The Yankees have a big advantage on the mound with Jameson Taillon over Tyler Wells.  Taillon has posted a 3.27 ERA and 0.727 WHIP in two career starts against the Orioles.  He held the potent Blue Jays to two earned runs in five innings with only five base runners allowed in his first start this season.

Wells was rocked by the Rays for four earned runs in 1 2/3 innings of an 8-0 defeat in his first start this season.  It was his first career start and he isn't going to go deep in this game either.  The Yankees will get him out of there early and then feast on Baltimore's bullpen.  The Orioles are hitting just .196 and scoring 2.0 runs per game this season.

The Orioles are 16-48 in their last 64 games overall.  Taillon's teams are 21-7 in his last 28 road starts following a loss.  Baltimore is 8-28 in its last 36 games as a home dog of +125 to +175 and losing by 2.7 runs per game.  The Yankees are 7-0 in their last seven road games vs. a left-handed starter.  New York is 41-15 in the last 56 meetings and 24-8 in the last 32 meetings in Baltimore.  Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Brewers OVER 8.5

The St. Louis Cardinals have one of the best lineups in the National League.  They are hitting .271 and scoring 6.0 runs per game this season.  The Milwaukee Brewers have a better lineup than they have shown at this point in the season.

The Brewers should get right against Steven Matz, who allowed 7 earned runs and 10 base runners in 3 innings of a 4-9 loss to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates in his first start this season.  The Cardinals should stay hot at the plate against Adrian Houser, who allowed 2 earned runs and 7 base runners in 3 2/3 innings to the Orioles.

Houser is 20-6 OVER as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last three seasons.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Jazz/Mavericks ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 210

Having no Luka Doncic is going to significantly hamper the Dallas Mavericks on offense in this series.  But they showed earlier this season they could be competitive without him by playing lockdown defense.  And I expect that to be the case in this series, thus I'm taking the UNDER in Game 1 Saturday.

I also like the fact that this is an early game with a 1:00 EST tip as both teams aren't familiar with playing games this early in the day.  I don't expect either team to be clicking offensively.  The Jazz are a dynamite defensive team when Rudy Gobert is on the court, and he is healthy for the playoffs now.

The Mavericks rank 6th in defensive efficiency this season and are an even better defensive team without Doncic.  They rank dead last in pace (30th) this season and will control the tempo playing at home, slowing it down to a snail's pace.  The Jazz are 10th in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace, so they are built for UNDERS as well.

Dallas is 8-1 UNDER in home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The UNDER is 11-1-1 in Jazz last 13 games following a SU win by more than 10 points.  The UNDER Is 10-2 in Jazz last 12 road games.  The UNDER is 46-19-1 in Mavericks last 66 home games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Dallas.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pelicans/Clippers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3.5

Note: Tough break on Paul George being out with COVID.  I still like the Clippers to win the game straight up.  The current line after the news is roughly PK and I would still recommend a bet at or around that number.

The Los Angeles Clippers were playing some of their best basketball of the season coming into their play-in game with the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games of the regular season where they got both Paul George and Norman Powell back from injury.

For 3.5 quarters, the Clippers had the Timberwolves by the balls.  But things changed after Karl-Anthony Towns went out.  The Clippers blew a double-digit lead as the Timberwolves went small ball and switched everything on defense, which the Clippers struggled with.  They will make the proper adjustments, and there is a good chance they get Luke Kennard back from injury to provide a shooting punch.

The Clippers just beat the Pelicans 119-100 at home on April 3rd as 2-point favorites.  That was an important result because both teams were at full strength, which they are now too.  Ingram, McCollum and Valanciunas all played for the Pelicans and all three struggled, combining to go 14-of-35 from the floor for just 44 points.  The Clippers had seven players score in double figures in the win.

The Clippers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Tyronn Lue is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA and I trust him to make the right moves to put the Clippers in position to win and cover this game and advance as the #8 seed in the playoffs.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +142

The St. Louis Cardinals have a much better lineup than the Milwaukee Brewers and should not be this big of underdogs let alone underdogs at all today because of it.  The Brewers are hitting .221 and scoring 3.3 runs per game this season.  The Cardinals are hitting .252 and scoring 5.2 runs per game.

Miles Mikolas is 5-2 with a 4.10 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in eight career starts against Milwaukee.  Freddy Peralta has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  Take the Cardinals Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Orioles OVER 9

The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles should easily combine for 9 or more runs tonight.  The forecast will help us cash this OVER ticket as well.  Temperatures will be in the 60's with 14 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at Camden Yards.

Both Jordan Montgomery and Jordan Lyles are coming off suspect opening starts.  Montgomery allowed 3 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings to the Red Sox, while Lyles allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings against the Rays.

Lyles is 28-12 OVER in his career as a home underdog of +125 or higher.  Lyles is 9-1 OVER in his last 10 starts vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  The OVER is 58-27-1 in the last 86 meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 8.5

Both offenses got going last night in a 6-4 win by the Blue Jays.  It should be more of the same tonight with the forecast calling for temperatures in the upper-60's and 9 MPH winds blowing out to right-center.

Luis Severino allowed two runs, five hits and a homer in three innings against the Red Sox in his first start this season.  He has posted a 4.04 ERA in 11 career starts against the Blue Jays, who have the best lineup in baseball this season.  The OVER is 3-0 in Severino's last three starts against Toronto.

Kevin Gausman allowed three runs and eight hits in five innings against the Rangers in his first start this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Gausman's last seven starts against the Yankees.  He has gone 1-3 with an 8.26 ERA in his last seven starts against New York while allowing 30 earned runs in 32 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Spurs/Pelicans ESPN No-Brainer on San Antonio +6

The San Antonio Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 7-4 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  This despite being locked into their playoff spot for a few games and playing backups and resting guys.

The Spurs have really shown off their depth here down the stretch.  They have just one loss by more than 6 points in their last 11 games.  Now they are as healthy as they have been all season with the only guy they are missing being Doug McDermott, who is a defensive liability anyway.

The Pelicans are getting too much credit for how they played down the stretch.  But their last five wins all came against non-playoff teams in the Lakers (twice), Blazers (twice) and Kings.  They lost by 19 points or more to the three playoff teams they played in their final eight games.

The Spurs have owned the Pelicans in this head-to-head series this season.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS with two outright road wins as 6-point road underdogs, which is what they are in this play-in game as well.  Both of those wins have come since mid-February including a win on March 26th in New Orleans.

The Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  San Antonio is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  San Antonio is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Spurs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven trips to New Orleans.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +110

Any chance I get to back 2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray as an underdog I'm going to take advantage.  He went 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in 32 starts last season with a whopping 248 K's in 193 1/3 innings.  He has picked up where he left off, allowing just one earned run in seven innings against the Twins in his first start this season.

Ray is a much better starter than Dallas Keuchel, who was a disaster last season for the White Sox and it's amazing he has kept his job in this rotation.  Keuchel went 9-9 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in 30 starts for the White Sox last season with only 95 K's in 162 innings.  The Mariners should get right on offense today against the left-hander.

Ray has posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.835 WHIP with 27 K's in 13 1/3 innings in two career starts against the White Sox, both of which came last season.  The Mariners are 8-1 in their last nine games vs. a left-handed starter.  Roll with the Mariners Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 8

I've been pretty stubborn on these Blue Jays' OVERS because they have the best lineup in baseball.  They are up against one of the best lineups in baseball in the Yankees as well.  After both lineups were held in check in the first two games of this series, I expect them to break out tonight.

Jose Berrios was rocked for 4 earned runs in 1/3 of an inning in a 10-8 win over the Rangers in his first start this season.  Berrios is 2-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in six career starts against the Yankees.  The OVER is 4-0 in Berrios' last four starts against New York.

Gerrit Cole allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings in his final start against the Blue Jays last season.  Cole allowed 3 earned runs in 4 innings in his first start this season, a 6-5 win over the Red Sox.  He and Berrios are getting too much respect from oddsmakers with this low 8-run total tonight.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Timberwolves TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota -2.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the No. 1 ranked team in offensive efficiency since January 1st.  They have been tough to tame when Russell, Towns and Edwards have been healthy.  In fact, they are fully healthy heading into the playoffs and will be a dangerous out for anyone.  This is a much deeper team than they get credit for.

The Clippers are getting a lot of respect after winning five straight games to close out the season.  But only one of those five opponents was actually trying to win the game, and that was the Pelicans.  Four of the wins came at home and the other was a road win over the Bucks' backups.  These five wins have given bettors false hope on this team.

Los Angeles is 1-11 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season.  The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Timberwolves are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss.  It's going to be a tremendous atmosphere at the Target Center in Minneapolis tonight as these fans have been yearning for a winner for years and they absolutely love this team, and for good reason.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -128

The Los Angeles Dodgers have several advantages in this game that should have them being bigger favorites over the Minnesota Twins.  They have the advantage on the mound, and they have the advantage of having yesterday off while the Twins will be playing for a 5th consecutive day.

Andrew Heaney has faced the Twins three times in his career, two of which came last season.  Heaney is 1-0 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in those three career starts against them with his teams going 3-0 in those games.  The Dodgers are high enough on him to add them to their rotation, which says a lot about what they think of him.

Chris Archer has fallen off a cliff the last few seasons.  He went 3-9 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in 23 starts with the Pirates in 2019 and has battled injury each of the last two seasons.  Archer has never beaten the Dodgers, going 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in three career starts against them.  Roll with the Dodgers Tuesday.