15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +8.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets.  They have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall but eight of their last nine wins have come by single-digits.  They have simply been fortunate in close games, and I think this one goes down to the wire against the Detroit Pistons, too.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  They have lost four of their last five games against a very tough schedule with road losses to the Pelicans by 6 and the Grizzlies by 11 as well as home losses to the Lakers by 7 and Kings by 9.  They also went on the road and upset the Hornets.  They are now catching too many points at home today to the Nets.

Brooklyn is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win.  The Pistons are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Detroit is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Knicks/Pacers OVER 226.5

Any game involving the Indiana Pacers with a total of less than 230 I'm going to take my first look at the OVER.  They are dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in the NBA in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency.  

The Pacers just combined for 230 points with the Cavaliers and 244 points with the Warriors in their last two games.  In fact, they have combined for 230 or more points with their opponents in five of their last six games overall.

The New York Knicks are rolling on offense right now and playing a lot faster.  They have scored at least 112 points in five consecutive games going in.  They will stay hot against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Pacers today.

The OVER is 35-15-1 in Pacers last 51 home games.  The OVER is 28-11 in Pacers last 39 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Titans/Chargers AFC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2.5

This Los Angeles Chargers offense is so much more potent when both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are on the field at the same time.  Williams returned last week to join Allen as the Chargers beat the Dolphins 23-17 in what was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.

The Chargers racked up 432 total yards and held the Dolphins to 219 total yards, outgaining them by 213 yards.  Justin Herbert went 39-of-51 passing for 367 yards in the win.  Williams had 6 receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown while Allen had 12 receptions for 92 yards.  Austin Ekeler also had 104 scrimmage yards and a score.  This is one of the best offenses in the NFL with Herbert and this trio of weapons.

Now the Chargers go up against a Tennessee Titans defense that is one of the most banged up in the NFL right now.  They just allowed 36 points and 428 total yards to the Jaguars last week after giving up 35 points and 453 total yards to the Eagles the previous week.  I just don't know how the Titans are going to get any stops in this game.

On the other side of the football, the Titans are also one of the worst units in the league.  They rank 26th in scoring offense at 18.5 points per game, 29th in total offense at 296.9 yards per game and 22nd at 5.2 yards per play.  The Titans are the most fraudulent team with a winning record in the NFL if it's not the Giants.  They are getting outgained by 68.1 yards per game on the season.  But that winning 7-6 record has them overvalued in recent weeks, including this week as only 2.5-point road dogs to the Chargers.

Los Angeles has a chance of getting several key players back on defense this week, while Tennessee remains banged up everywhere, including at receiver, along the offensive line and at all three levels on defense.  Mike Vraebel has done a tremendous job of getting everything he could out of this team the last couple seasons, but they are finally starting to break due to all these injuries.  The Titans still have a two-game lead in the AFC South so they can afford a loss, while the Chargers can only make the playoffs through the wild card.  So they will be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency this week as well.

The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Chargers are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Titans.  Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Los Angeles.  Los Angeles is 33-8 ATS in its last 41 games vs. AFC South opponents.  The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after two straight games attempting 40 or more passes.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

20* Bengals/Bucs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cincinnati -3.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The books haven't been able to catch up to how good this team really is.  Joe Burrow is legitimately a Top 5 quarterback in this league if not the best, and he has some of the best weapons in the NFL.  Plus, the Bengals have one of the most underrated defenses in the league as well.

Cincinnati ranks 7th in scoring offense at 25.8 points per game, 5th in total offense at 371.7 yards per game and 10th at 5.7 yards per play.  The Bengals rank 11th in scoring defense at 20.4 points per game, 14th in total defense at 331.1 yards per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play.

Tampa Bay has a good defense, but they just gave up 35 points to San Francisco and third-string QB Brock Purdy last week.  They are a tired defense missing several key players who were playing on a short week after needing a 13-point comeback in the final few minutes of the 4th quarter to beat the Saints on Monday Night Football.  They wore down against the 49ers, and now after traveling clear out West they have to travel back home this week and face a Bengals offense that will test them at ever level.

But this is a fade of Tampa Bays' offense more than anything.  The Bucs rank 28th in scoring offense at 17.2 points per game and 26th at 5.0 yards per play.  Tom Brady has no time to throw because of a depleted offensive line that has been terrible all season.  The Bucs cannot run the ball to take pressure off Brady as they rank dead last (32nd) in rushing at 72.9 yards per game and 32nd at 3.3 yards per carry.

While the Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, the Bucs are just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The books have been undervaluing the Bengals all season and overvaluing the Bucs, and that's the case again this week with Cincinnati as just a short road favorite.  The Bengals will remain motivated as they are tied with the Ravens for 1st place in the AFC North and only one game back of the Bills and Chiefs for the No. 1 seed.  The Bucs can lose this game and still control their own destiny in the putrid NFC South, so winning this game isn't as important for them as it is for the Bengals.  Take the Bengals Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +10.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with five upset victories outright.  They only lost by 7 to the Bucks as 10-point dogs, beat the Clippers outright as 6.5-point dogs, beat the Raptors by 4 and 12 outright as 8 and 7-point dogs, beat the Hawks by 11 outright as 3-point dogs and beat the Celtics outright as 13.5-point dogs.

Yes, the Celtics will now be out for revenge today, but they shouldn't be 10.5-point favorites over the Magic.  They can get their revenge and still not cover this inflated number.  Plus, Jayson Tatum scored 31 points in that first meeting on Friday and they still lost by 8.  Well, now the Celtics won't have Tatum today as he'll be out for personal reasons.  There's no way the Celtics should be double-digit favorites over the Magic without Tatum and with how well the Magic are playing right now.

The Celtics are overvalued due to having the best record in the NBA and it has shown of late as they are 1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 16 at Golden State, by 20 at the Clippers and by 8 at home to the Magic.  Their lone win was a miracle as they erased a 13-point deficit in the final four minutes to beat the Lakers by 4 in OT.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Celtics UNDER 223.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  The Magic and Celtics will be playing for the 2nd game in 3 days.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and I think we get a defensive struggle here Sunday with this sleepy start time with a 3:10 EST tip this afternoon.

The Magic beat the Celtics 117-109 for 226 combined points on Friday.  That was even with Jayson Tatum scoring 31 points for the Celtics.  Well, Tatum won't play today due to personal reasons, and the Celtics will have a hard time scoring without him.  Plus, two key defenders in Robert Williams and Al Horford just returned for the Celtics, so they will rely on defense in this one.

Orlando is a very good defensive team with a ton of length.  The Magic have allowed 111 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall.  Holding the Celtics with Tatum to 109 points is no small feat, and I don't see Boston getting more than 109 in the rematch, either.  I expect Boston to defend Orlando much better than they did in that first meeting, too.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Carolina Panthers -2

Both the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 5-8 this season.  But since the Carolina Panthers play in the weak NFC South, they are just one game out of first place with a lot to play for the rest of the way.  In fact, they control their own destiny to win the division because they already beat the Bucs and play them again.

The Steelers just had their playoff hopes crushed last week with a devastating 14-16 home loss to the Baltimore Ravens and backup QB's Huntley and Brown.  They lost Kenny Pickett to a concussion early in that game, and Mitch Trubisky came in and moved the ball down the field, but threw three interceptions in the red zone that cost them the game.  I don't think there's much difference between Trubisky or Pickett, so I'm not concerned who starts this week.  I think the spot is terrible for the Steelers as that loss to the hated Ravens is the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

I like the way the Panthers are trending and the fact that they have a lot more to play for this week.  These players love Steve Wilks and are playing hard for him.  They have gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with three outright wins as underdogs.  They are 3-0 at home during this stretch with three blowout wins over the Bucs by 18, the Falcons by 10 and the Broncos by 13.

The Panthers should still be fresh this week because they had a bye two weeks ago prior to going into Seattle and winning 30-24 last week.  The offense has gotten a spark as Sam Darnold is 2-0 as a starter and leading the Panthers to 26.5 points per game in the two wins.  And this is one of the better defenses in the league as the Panthers rank 13th in scoring defense at 22.3 points per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play allowed.  Pittsburgh allows 5.7 yards per play for comparison.

The Steelers have been gashed on the ground in two consecutive games giving up 146 rushing yards to the Falcons and 215 rushing yards to the Ravens.  That's bad news for them going up against this Carolina rushing attack that has produced 169 or more rushing yards in five of its last seven games overall.  I think the Panthers can control this game by moving the ball on the ground, and Sam Darnold just needs to keep managing the game and making timely play-action completions as he has in his first two starts.   Pittsburgh is scoring just 15.6 points per game on the road this season.

The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a loss by 6 points or fewer.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Bears OVER 48.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are humming on offense right now scoring 41.0 points per game in their last three games overall.  They are now the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL.  They can name their number against what is the worst defense in the NFL currently in the Chicago Bears.

The Bears have allowed 27 or more points in six consecutive games and an average of 33.5 points per game during this stretch.  But this Chicago offense has really taken off with Justin Fields.  In the last six games started by Fields, the Bears are averaging 27.8 points per game. He is clearly recovered from his shoulder injury after leading the Bears to 409 total yards against the Packers in his return from injury prior to the bye last week.

I expect the Eagles to get out to a lead in this game and to continue to score at will similarly to what they did against the Giants last week when they kept pouring it on with 48 points.  And Fields and the Bears will be forced to go hurry up to try and keep up with the Eagles.  The one weakness of the Eagles is their running defense as they have allowed 99 or more rushing yards in eight of their last nine games.  They rank 24th allowing 4.7 yards per carry.  The strength of the Bears is their rushing offense that ranks 1st in the NFL at 189.2 rushing yards per game.

The forecast looks good for a shootout for this time of year in Chicago with 12 MPH winds and 0% chance of precipitation.  The OVER is 7-1 in Eagles last eight games overall.  The OVER is 7-0 in Eagles last seven games following a win.  The OVER is 39-16 in Eagles last 55 December games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Bears last seven games overall.  The OVER is 10-1 in Bears last 11 games following an ATS loss.  These are both dead nuts OVER teams right now.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cowboys/Jaguars OVER 47.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They combined for 55 points with the Ravens, 54 with the Lions and 58 with the Titans in their last three games.  It should be more of the same against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday with the forecast perfect for a shootout in Jacksonville with temps in the 50's and less than 10 MPH winds.

Trevor Lawrence is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the league this season under the guidance of Doug Pederson.  He is completing 66.2% of his passes with a 20-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 218 yards and four scores.  Travis Etienne is averaging 5.0 YPC, and Lawrence is loaded with weapons in Kirk, Jones, Engram and Jones Jr. on the outside.

The Dallas Cowboys are humming on offense right now as well.  They have scored 28 or more points in six consecutive games and are averaging 37.7 points per game in their last six games.  They will get their points against a Jacksonville defense that has really slipped in allowing at least 20 points in eight consecutive games and an average of 26.8 points per game during this stretch.  Dallas has allowed at least 19 points in five of its last six games despite a very weak schedule of opposing offenses.

The OVER is 5-1 in Cowboys last six games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cowboys last six games following a win.  The OVER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four December games.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  The OVER is 7-0 in Jaguars last seven games off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Lions/Jets Non-Conference ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have combined for 49 or more points in five consecutive games and two of those games were played outdoors at New York and at Chicago.  They have averaged 32.2 points per game in their last five games and 54.8 combined points per game in their last five as well, so this is a very low total of 44 for a game involving the Lions.

The New York Jets have come to life on offense with Mike White at quarterback.  They put up 31 points and 466 total yards against the Bears in White's first start.  They put up 486 total yards in the Vikings in his second start.  And last week they had 309 total yards against a very good Bills defense in terrible weather in Buffalo with heavy winds.

Well, the weather is expected to be very good for a game in New York in December.  Forecasts are calling for 38 degrees, only 10 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation.  That's pretty great weather outdoors for a shootout for this time of year.

The Jets could set a couple offensive linemen back this week and Cory Davis is questionable.  They may be without some key players on defense, most notably DL Quinnen Williams who is questionable with a calf injury.  And while the Lions are playing better defensively of late, they still rank 31st in scoring defense at 26.7 points per game, 31st in total defense at 403.2 yards per game and 32nd at 6.2 yards per play.

The OVER is 9-1 in Lions last 10 road games following four or more consecutive ATS wins.  The OVER is 8-1 in Lions last nine games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 9-2 in Jets last 11 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game.  The OVER is 6-1 in Jets last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Western Michigan/Iowa State UNDER 130

The Iowa State Cyclones are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 257th in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted defense this season.  They are holding opponents to just 56.9 points per game and 38.5% shooting, holding them to 17.9 points per game less than their season averages.  They are only scoring 70.7 points per game, too.

Western Michigan plays at an even slower pace than Iowa State, ranking 260th in adjusted tempo.  They are a terrible offensive team ranking 281st in adjusted offense.  They are averaging 3.5 points per game less than their opponents allow on the season.

The UNDER is 14-2 in Iowa State's last 16 games overall, including 9-1 this season.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Cyclones last nine games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Cyclones last 21 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Broncos last four games overall.  This is early 1:00 EST start time which will have both teams half asleep as well, which favors the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Tennessee/Arizona ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -3.5

The Arizona Wildcats are 9-1 this season with wins over Cincinnati, San Diego State, Creighton and Indiana all on neutrals.  Their lone loss came on the road.  The Wildcats are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 27.4 points per game.

Now they host a Tennessee team that is also 9-1 but hasn't played a true road game yet.  I always like fading teams when they play their first true road game.  It will be a tremendous atmosphere and home-court advantage tonight for the Wildcats with a rowdy crowd with this 10:30 EST tip.  It will easily be the toughest atmosphere the Vols will have played in this season.

Plays on home teams (Arizona) - after covering as a double-digit favorite, in a game involving two teams that win more than 80% of their games on the season are 48-24 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  G James (8.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and F Aidoo (4.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG) are both questionable to play for the Vols tonight as well.  Roll with Arizona Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +24

This is a terrible spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They have played their last three games against Duke, Iowa State and Wisconsin.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat SE Missouri State as they were those three teams, and they will need to be motivated to cover this big of a number Saturday.

Making matters worse for the Hawkeyes is that they will be without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) and could be without Ahron Ulis (6.4 PPG), who is questionable.  They just want to get in and get out with a win here Saturday and won't be concerned with getting margin.

We've seen SE Missouri State hang tough against some very good teams this season.  They only lost by 7 at Missouri as 21.5-point dogs a few games back.  They upset South Florida outright as 11-point road dogs, upset Evansville outright as 2-point road dogs and only lost by 13 at Bradley.  They have done their best work in true road games.

The Redhawks are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  The Redhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet SE Missouri State Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -6.5

Nobody is playing better than the Memphis Grizzlies right now.  They are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven wins coming by 8 points or more.  That includes a 41-point win over Milwaukee, a 25-point win over Atlanta and a 21-point win over Oklahoma City, which is tonight's opponent.

The spot really favors the Grizzlies as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and are fully healthy with the exception of Desmond Bane, who has been out for a few weeks now and they haven't really missed him due to all their depth.  This is a terrible spot for the Thunder playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days.

The Thunder come in on a four-game losing streak and are dealing with a ton of injuries right now.  Robinson-Earl (8.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG) remains out, and Bazley (5.9 PPG) and Dort (13.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG) are both questionable.  The Thunder lost 110-112 to the short-handed Timberwolves last night who were playing without Towns, Russell and Gobert.  

That game went down to the wire so their starters played big minutes, meaning they will be even more fatigued than normal in this 2nd of a back-to-back.  Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when playing in zero rest.  Memphis is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Rockets OVER 227

Damian Lillard is back healthy now to go with Simons and Grant and the Blazers have been a dead nuts OVER team since his return.  They are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with combined scores of 241, 242, 245, 240 and 240 points.  They have scored at least 116 points in six of their last seven games overall.

The Blazers lost in a 110-130 blowout to the Mavericks last night and have now allowed at least 111 points in 13 of their last 14 games overall.  But the blowout loss allowed their starters to rest as Lillard played 24 minutes, Simons 23, Grant 20, Hart 21 and Nurkic 21.  They will still be fresh and able to get up and down with the Rockets, who like to push the pace.

The Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They like to run and rank 27th in defensive efficiency.  And when these teams get together a shootout usually ensues.  The Blazers and Rockets have combined for at least 231 points in three of their last four meetings.

Portland is a perfect 7-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and we're seeing 235.8 combined points per game in this spot.  Portland beat Houston 125-111 as a 4-point favorite for 236 combined points in their first meeting this season.  The OVER is 19-7 in Rockets last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season at Memphis on Thursday.  They were coming off a 128-111 home win over the Warriors and I think they simply had a letdown after beating the defending champs.

But now the Bucks are back home where they are 13-3 SU & 11-5 ATS this season outscoring opponents by 9.0 points per game.  And they are expected to get star PG Jrue Holiday (19.1 PPG, 7.4 APG, 5.3 RPG) back from illness after sitting out the last two games.

The Utah Jazz are just 1-6 SU in their last seven road games with five losses by 5 points or more.  They are getting too much respect after two consecutive home wins over the Pelicans.  But now they are back on the road here and should be much more than 5-point road underdogs to the Bucks.  

It's time to 'buy low' on Milwaukee off a blowout loss and 'sell high' on Utah after two consecutive upset home wins.  The Bucks will come back motivated and will have 100% focus for this one, which isn't good news for the Jazz.  Roll with the Bucks Saturday.

20* Rice/Southern Miss LendingTree Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Southern Miss -6

Southern Miss head coach Will Hall was confident that the Golden Eagles would get to a bowl game coming into the season.  Well, he was right, and the Golden Eagles earned it by having to win their final game of the season to get to 6-6.  They will be highly motivated to win this bowl game because they want to be here after working so hard down the stretch to get here.

Keep in mind Southern Miss opened 5-3 SU before losing three straight, including gut-wrenching losses at Coastal Carolina by 3 and to South Alabama by 7, two of the top three teams in the Sun Belt.  That made their double-digit win at LA-Monroe even more impressive, and they dominated that game outgaining the Warhawks by 217 yards.

This Southern Miss offense has been better since QB Trey Lowe took over.  He started the final three games and they went 3-0 ATS with him under center.  Frank Gore Jr. is a warrior at RB and rushed for 1,053 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.1 per carry this season.  But it's the Southern Miss defense that is the best unit on the field.  They allow just 23.5 points per game this season.

Rice (5-7) is only in this bowl game because of their GPA.  They went 1-4 in their final five games including blowout losses to Charlotte by 33, Western Kentucky by 35 and UTSA by 34.  They are down their top two quarterbacks in T.J. McMahon and Wiley Green, leaving true freshman 3rd-string QB AJ Padgett to start this bowl game.  Padgett is just 20-of-40 (50%) passing this season and isn't the dual-threat that McMahon was, rushing 20 times for 20 yards.

This Rice defense has been horrendous this season.  The Owls allow 33.8 points per game and 6.4 yards per play.  It has been really bad down the stretch as they have allowed 41 or more points in four of their last six games overall.  They are decimated by injuries at cornerback, and they haven't been able to stop the run all season.  They allow 173 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.

This will be a short trip for Southern Miss fans to Mobile, Alabama for the LendingTree Bowl.  It's only an hour and 45 minutes from Hattiesburg to Mobile.  It will be Hall's first bowl game as their head coach.  The Golden Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Southern Miss Saturday.

20* Ravens/Browns AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland -3

The Cleveland Browns have been on the road four of the last five weeks.  In their lone home game, they beat the Tampa Bay Bucs in overtime.  Now Deshaun Watson will be playing his first home game for the Browns after playing the last two on the road.  This will be a much more comforting atmosphere for Watson, and I expect his best game as a Brown yet.

But this play is as much of a fade of the Ravens as it is a play on the Browns.  They were very lucky to beat the Steelers 16-14 last week as the Steelers lost Kenny Pickett early, and Mitch Trubisky threw three interceptions in the red zone.  The Ravens pulled off a minor miracle to win that game after only beating the Broncos 10-9 at home the previous week.  Their luck runs out this week.

The Ravens will still be without Lamar Jackson, and quality backup Tyler Huntley suffered a concussion against the Steelers and is highly questionable to play this week, especially since it's a short week with this game being played on Saturday.  Third stringer Anthony Brown is a big downgrade from Huntley, and this line will be much more than Cleveland -3 if Brown starts.

The numbers actually show the Browns are the better team, and that's even with Jackson up to this point.  The Browns rank 6th in total offense at 368.8 yards per game while the Ravens are 14th at 347.0 yards per game.  The Ravens are 12th in total defense at 330.4 yards per game while the Browns are 17th at 343.8 yards per game.  So the Ravens are only outgaining opponents by 16.6 yards per game while the Browns are outgaining foes by 25 yards per game.

Plays against any team (Baltimore) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, when playing on Saturday are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on favorites (Cleveland) - after covering the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 49-20 (71%) ATS since 1983.  Cleveland is favored for good reason this week, and it should be an even bigger favorite.  Bet the Browns Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Fresno State -3

The Fresno State Bulldogs have won eight consecutive games heading into the LA Bowl.  The last six of those have come since Jake Haener returned from injury at quarterback.  This Fresno State offense has been humming with Haener averaging 37.2 points per game in their last six games.  He has decided to play in the bowl despite the fact that he's going to get drafted.

This team wants to win this game for Haener in his final game at Fresno State.  The defense has really stepped their game up as well allowing just 15.0 points per game during their eight-game winning streak.  The Bulldogs will also be motivated to get to play a Power 5 team from the Pac-12.

Few teams have been hit harder by injuries and opt-outs heading into bowl season than Washington State.  Defensive coordinator Brian Ward left for Arizona State and offensive coordinator Eric Morris left for North Texas.  Three of the top four receivers are out and each of their top three linebackers are out, including first-team All-Pac-12 LB Daiyan Henley.  The three receivers that are out combined for 123 receptions, 1434 yards and 11 touchdowns.

The Cougars will have their hands full trying to score without all of their top playmakers.  They will also have their hands full defensively trying to stop Haener and company.  This Washington State defense just gave up 51 points and 705 total yards to Washington in the season finale.  That includes 485 passing yards.  Well, Washington runs the same system as Fresno State because head coach Kevin Deboer left Fresno for Washington in the offseason.  The Cougars couldn't stop the Huskies, and they won't be able to stop the Bulldogs, either.  

This game will be played in Los Angeles, which is only a 3-hour, 30-minute drive from Fresno.  Most of these kids playing for Fresno are from the LA area, so they will have a huge home-field advantage in this one at SoFi Stadium.  Bet Fresno State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -3

Marshall won nine consecutive games before finally losing 67-75 at UNC-Greensboro last time out.  I think they'll be refocused with Toledo coming to town this weekend.  Marshall is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 17.7 points per game.

Toledo has some really bad losses this season and they cannot be trusted.  They lost by 7 at George Mason, by 11 to ECU and by 12 to Missouri-KC.  They also just beat Canisius by 1 as 17-point home favorites last time out.  Toledo ranks just 228th in adjusted defense while Marshall ranks 98th.

Marshall is 6-0 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Thundering Herd are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Roll with Marshall Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Cornell +9.5

Cornell has been very impressive this season at 7-2 with their two losses coming by 2 at Boston College as 9.5-point dogs and by 2 at Miami as 14.5-point dogs.  They are once again catching too many points today against another ACC team in Syracuse today.

Syracuse has upset losses to Bryant and Colgate at home already this season and also lost to St. John's by 7 and Illinois by 29.  These teams have a common opponent in Monmouth, too.  Cornell won by 18 points on the road at Monmouth, while Syracuse only beat Monmouth by 15 at home.

Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games following a home win.  Cornell is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games a an underdog.  The Big Red are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orange are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Cornell Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Sam Houston State -3.5

Sam Houston State is 8-2 this season with its only losses coming to Nevada and Oklahoma State on the road.  They also beat Utah on the road by 10 and Oklahoma on the road, and those wins look really good right now especially after Utah handed Arizona their only loss this season.

Texas State is just 6-5 this season with some very ugly losses.  The most alarming was last time out when they lost 65-71 at home to Mary Hardin Baylor.  They also lost to Hawaii, Rice, UTSA and Washington State all by 5 points or more.

Sam Houston State has played the 31st-toughest schedule in the country while Texas State has played the 253rd-ranked schedule.  Texas State is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  Sam Houston ranks 34th in adjusted defense while Texas State ranks 203rd.  Take Sam Houston State Saturday.

20* Houston/Virginia ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars are legitimately one of the top teams in the country this season.  They are 10-1 with their only loss coming to Alabama after blowing a double-digit lead.  They rank 29th in adjusted offense and 2nd in adjusted defense.

Virginia is getting too much respect from the books right now after an 8-0 start.  But the Cavaliers have been squeaking by of late beating Michigan by 2 as 4.5-point favorites, Florida State by 5 as 18-point favorites and James Madison by 5 as 12.5-point favorites in their last three games coming in.

Virginia's luck runs out today against the best team they have faced yet in Houston.  I think the Cavaliers will be rusty because they haven't played since December 6th with 10 days off in between games.  Virginia will be without Reece Beekman (27 MPG, 10.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) for the first time this season after he was injured against James Madison.

Houston crushed Virginia 67-47 at home last season.  Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following four or more consecutive wins.  Houston is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a SU home win where they failed to cover.  The Cougars are a ridiculous 42-12-1 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS loss.  The Cavaliers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Houston Saturday.

20* Indiana/Kansas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kansas -5

The Kansas Jayhawks are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall two of the most impressive performances of any team this season.  They beat Seton Hall 91-65 as 10-point home favorites and beat Missouri 95-67 as only 3.5-point road favorites.

Now the Jayhawks are only 5-point home favorites over the Indiana Hoosiers in one of the best venues for college basketball at home.  Indiana lost by 14 to Arizona on a neutral and by 15 at Rutgers in two of their last three games, which doesn't bode well for them being able to hang with the Jayhawks today.

Kansas has played the 39th-toughest schedule in the country while Indiana has played the 170th.  Kansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games after winning three of its last four games.  Plays against road teams (Indiana) - after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game against an opponent that is coming off three straight wins by 15 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Blazers/Mavericks OVER 222.5

Damian Lillard is back healthy now to go with Simons and Grant and the Blazers have been a dead nuts OVER team since his return.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with combined scores of 241, 242, 245 and 240 points.  They have scored at least 116 points in six consecutive games as well.

The Dallas Mavericks have been playing in a lot more high scoring games of late with Christian Wood in the lineup.  They have combined for 221 or more points in eight of their last 10 games overall and 229 or more points in seven of those.

The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between the Mavericks and Blazers with 224 or more combined points in 11 of those 12 meetings.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 222.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bulls UNDER 228.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  The Knicks and Bulls just played on Wednesday with the Knicks winning 128-120 (OT) in a game that was tied 117-117 at the end of regulation.  The total was 226.5 for that game, and the books have made the mistake of adjusting it up to 228.5 for the rematch here two days later.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Both teams shot lights out in that first meeting and it won't happen again.  The Bulls shot 54.8% from the field, while the Knicks shot 49.5% from the field including a ridiculous 18-of-34 (52.9%) from 3-point range.  The Knicks are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league at 32.6% for the season, so it was clearly an aberration.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 road games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Bulls last seven games following a loss.  The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Bulls last 29 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +13.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with four upset victories outright.  They only lost by 7 to the Bucks as 10-point dogs, beat the Clippers outright as 6.5-point dogs, beat the Raptors by 4 and 12 outright as 8 and 7-point dogs, and beat the Hawks by 11 outright as 3-point dogs.

This is a good spot for the Magic playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  This is a terrible spot for the Celtics returning home from a six-game road trip that concluded in Los Angeles.  I always like fading teams in their first game back home following a long road trip because there are so many distractions they have to deal with.  The Celtics haven't been home since December 2nd.

The Magic are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on two days' rest.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (Boston) - after failing to cover two of their last three ATS, when playing on two days' rest are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Magic Friday.

20* Pacers/Cavs NBA Friday No-Brainer on OVER 222.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency.  They have combined for 232 or more points in four of their last five games overall, including 269 with the Nets and 244 with the Warriors.

The Cleveland Cavaliers just got Donovan Mitchell back from injury.  They also got Kevin Love back.  They are a very good offensive team as long as Mitchell is on the floor.  They will have no problem getting up and down with the Pacers tonight in a shootout.

The last two meetings between the Pacers and Cavaliers went way OVER the total.  They combined for 251 points with a 222.5-point total and 233 points with a 216-point total.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pacers last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Warriors/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -6.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are at full strength in the health department right now with the exception of Tyrese Maxey.  They are playing their best basketball of the season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins by 11 over the Lakers, by 18 over the Hornets and by 20 over the Kings.

Now the 76ers come in on two days' rest and highly motivated to face the defending champion Warriors.  But the Warriors have just been going through the motions all season, and they are going to regret that with the injuries that are starting to pile up for them.

Indeed, the Warriors will be without their top two scorers in Steph Curry (30.0 PPG, 6.8 APG, 6.6 RPG) and Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG).  Both Klay Thompson (18.7 PPG) and Draymond Green (8.1 PPG, 6.7 APG, 6.0 RPG) are questionable to play tonight as well.  Either way, the Warriors stand no chance of being competitive without Curry and Wiggins.

The Warriors are 2-13 SU & 3-12 ATS on the road this season.  The 76ers are 10-5 SU & 11-4 ATS at home this season.  Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or better this season.  The 76ers are 8-0 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  Take the 76ers Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Pistons OVER 238

The Sacramento Kings are an OVER team when De'Aaron Fox is healthy, which is the case right now.  They rank 6th in pace, 7th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency on the season.  They are coming off a 124-123 win at Toronto for 247 combined points.

The Detroit Pistons are an OVER team of late.  After combining for 241 points at the end of regulation with the Lakers, they combined for 254 points with the Hornets at the end of regulation last time out.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 236, 264 and 266 points.  That 266-point effort came in their first meeting this season, so we have a lot of room to spare here with this 238-point total.

The OVER is 4-0 in Pistons last four home games.  The OVER is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Detroit.  Detroit is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 non-conference home games.  Sacramento is 15-5 OVER in its last 20 games vs. bad teams outscored by 6-plus PPG.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Hornets OVER 232.5

La'Melo Ball (20.3 PPG, 8.0 APG) just returned from injury last time out.  The Hornets lost 134-141 (OT) to the Pistons in a game that saw 254 combined points at the end of regulation.  They were already a dead nuts OVER team without him, and they are one of biggest OVER teams with him.

They rank 10th in pace this season despite only playing four games with Ball, and they will be one of the fastest-paced teams moving forward with him in the lineup.  The Hornets are 25th in defensive efficiency and will continue being one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The Atlanta Hawks are without their two best defenders right now in Clint Capela and Dejounte Murray.  They have allowed 220 or more points in four consecutive games but they have scored at least 116 points in three of their last four.  Their are fine offensively as long as Tray Young is in the lineup, and they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA without Capela and Murray.

The Hornets and Hawks have combined for exactly 235 points in each of their last two meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hawks last four games overall.  The OVER is 7-1 in Hawks last eight road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The OVER is 21-6 in Hawks last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 5-0 in Hornets last five games following an ATS loss.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans ML -118

I love the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 100-121 loss at Utah on Tuesday.  Now they get to face the Jazz just two days later, and they will be the more motivated team, while the Jazz will relax after just blowing them out.

The Pelicans were 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their previous 14 games before losing to the Jazz.  It was an aberration as it was one of their worst shooting performances of the season.  They shot just 39.8% as a team, 4-of-27 (14.8%) from 3-point range and 22-of-33 (66.7%) from the FT line.  They will shoot better in all three areas in this rematch.

The Jazz were not playing well coming into that game.  They were 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 games overall.  They are still without Collin Sexton (14.3 PPG) and I don't expect them to play nearly as well as they did Tuesday night in the rematch.

Plays on road favorites (New Orleans) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 60-26 (69.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans on the Money Line Thursday.

20* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco -3

The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with five wins by 13 points or more.  Even in the game they failed to win by double-digits they should have as they outgained the Chargers by 149 yards in a 22-16 victory as 8.5-point favorites.  They should be bigger than 3-point favorites over the Seahawks Thursday.

I know this will be Brock Purdy's first road game, but they have been better with him under center.  They beat the Dolphins 33-17 as he took over for Jimmy G early in that game.  Then they beat the Bucs 35-7.  I know Purdy had some plays go his ways due to penalties, but the guy is cool under pressure, offers mobility that Jimmy G didn't have, and the players absolutely love him.

Purdy just needs to be a game manager in this one because the 49ers are going to run wild on this Seattle defense.  The 49ers have rushed for at least 101 yards in six of their last seven games overall.  The Seahawks have allowed 192 rushing yards per game in their last five games.  It's a big reason they are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall because they cannot stop anyone.  They needed a last-minute TD to beat the Rams 27-23 in their lone win, and that was a Rams team missing four of their top players in Stafford, Kupp, Donald and Robinson.

This Seattle offense is solid, but they are no match for this San Francisco defense.  The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 15.2 points per game, 1st in total defense at 286.8 yards per game and 3rd at 4.8 yards per play allowed.  The 49ers have now allowed 17 or fewer points in six consecutive games and an average of just 10.7 points per game during this stretch.

The Seahawks haven't been able to run the ball of late averaging just 60 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  They have cluster injuries at the RB position, and the offensive line has been dreadful.  Geno Smith will be under duress all game, and the 49ers are a dangerous defense when they can pin their ears back.

San Francisco won the first meeting 27-7 and held the Seahawks to just 216 total yards and 14 first downs.  They rushed for 189 yards in that first meeting.  It should be rinse and repeat here as the 49ers have the big edge at the line of scrimmage.  Purdy just has to manage the game and not turn the ball over and the 49ers run away with this one again.

Kyle Shanahan is a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games as the coach of San Francisco.  Shanahan is 15-3 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games as the coach of the 49ers.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall despite being a 6.5-point dog or higher in five games.  They pulled the upset as 11.5-point road dogs to Phoenix and upset the Suns again as 6.5-point home dogs.  They upset the 76ers as 8-point home dogs and upset the Bucks as 10-point home dogs.  So it's not like they are beating bad teams, they are beating the best teams in the NBA has to offer.

Now the Rockets are undervalued once again as home underdogs to the Miami Heat, who are in an absolutely terrible spot tonight.  The Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-108 win in Oklahoma City last night.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Heat, which is about as tough a spot as you will find in the NBA.  Don't be surprised if they rest several players tonight given the spot.

Miami is 2-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games playing on zero rest.  Miami is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.  Roll with the Rockets Thursday.

20* Timberwolves/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6

The Los Angeles Clippers were the preseason favorites to win the NBA title.  But injuries have held them back thus far.  Now we are seeing a glimpse of how good this team can be with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back from injury for a few games now.

The Clippers just blasted the Celtics 113-93 at home on Wednesday.  The Celtics have the best record in the NBA, so that was no small feat.  And now I expect them to blast the short-handed Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.

The Timberwolves are coming off two consecutive road losses at Portland by 6 and at Portland by 21 in the rematch.  They will now be playing their 4th road game in 6 days.  They are without Karl-Anthony Towns (20.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG) and Jalen McDaniels (10.8 PPG) and could be without De'Angelo Russell (16.6 PPG, 6.3 APG), who is questionable with a knee injury.

Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Minnesota.  The Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Roll with the Clippers Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Spurs OVER 229

The Portland Trail Blazers have Damian Lillard back healthy now and are a dead nuts OVER team as a result.  They are 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with combined scores of 230 or more points in five of those seven games with 227 in another.  They have scored at least 116 points in five consecutive games.

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team as it is.  They rank 5th in the NBA in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.  They have scored 112, 115 and 118 points in their last three games overall.  They are allowing 120.1 points per game and 50.4% shooting on the season.

The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in San Antonio.  Portland is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games following two or more consecutive home wins and we're seeing 236.2 combined points per game in this spot.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 210 or higher (Portland) - a good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), a hot shooting team making 47% or higher in four consecutive games are 32-6 (84.2%) over the last five seasons.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Hornets OVER 226.5

The Detroit Pistons are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have combined with their opponents for 232 or more points in four of their last seven games overall.  They rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season and play a Charlotte Hornets team that ranks 24th in defensive efficiency.

The Hornets are also a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have combined for 233 or more points with their opponents in five of their last seven games overall.  And they haven't had their best player in La'Melo Ball (19.3 PPG, 7.0 APG) for this stretch, and he has been upgraded to questionable and will likely make his return tonight.  Ball averaged 20.1 PPG and 7.6 APG last season and has only played in three games this season.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between Detroit and Charlotte with combined scores of 253, 260 and 251 points.  The OVER is 9-1 in Hornets last 10 games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic +3

The Orlando Magic are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS against a brutal schedule with their lone loss coming by 7 as 10-point dogs to Milwaukee.  They upset the Clippers by 5 as 6.5-point dogs, upset the Raptors by 4 as 8-point dogs and upset the Raptors by 12 as 7-point dogs.

The Magic now come in on two days' rest and will upset the short-handed Atlanta Hawks tonight.  The Hawks are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win coming by a single point over the Bulls in OT.  The Hawks are 5-9 SU & 5-9 ATS on the road this season.

The Hawks are without Dejounte Murray (20.8 PPG, 6.2 APG) and John Collins (12.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG) and could be without Trae Young (27.1 PPG, 9.6 APG), who is questionable tonight with a nagging back injury.  They shouldn't be favored without Murray and Collins alone, but they definitely shouldn't be favored with Young hampered.

Plays on home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Orlando) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Ohio +13.5

The Ohio Bobcats are 5-4 this season with only a 1-point loss at Belmont as 6-point dogs and a 4-point loss in OT to Michigan as 14.5-point dogs.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall, which includes an impressive upset road win at Youngstown State as 4.5-point dogs last time out.

Florida already has four losses this season.  They lost outright as 12-point home favorites to FAU, lost by 7 to Xavier on a neutral, lost by 29 to WVU on a neutral and lost by 21 to UConn at home.  I don't think they have any business being 13.5-point favorites over Ohio given those results.

Keep in mind this isn't a true home game for Florida as it is being played on a neutral in Tampa, so they won't have their normal home-court advantage.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Ohio is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a road win.  The Bobcats are 41-15 ATSin their last 56 games following two consecutive games as road underdogs.  Florida is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ohio Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

Nobody is playing better than the New Orleans Pelicans right now, and Zion Williamson is showing his importance to this team.  They have kept winning despite being without Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum for stretches because of Williamson and their underrated role players.

The Pelicans are 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall with their two losses coming to two of the best teams in the NBA in Memphis and Boston.  They have won seven consecutive games with four of those coming by double-digits and will be highly motivated to extend that winning streak to eight games tonight.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The Utah Jazz have hit the skids after a fast start to the season.  They are just 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Injuries have played a role in their struggles and they remain without Collin Sexton (14.3 PPG) tonight.  Utah ranks just 26th in defensive efficiency while New Orleans ranks 3rd, and that will be the difference in this game tonight.

Utah is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games following a road loss.  Plays on road favorites (New Orleans) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against an opponent that's off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Memphis/Alabama ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Memphis +8

The Memphis Tigers always start slow and then get better as the season goes on.  That's likely due to many new faces every year with the elite talent Penny Hardaway recruits.  They started 2-2 this season but have since gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS with wins over Nebraska by 12, Ole Miss by 11 and their most impressive win being a 9-point victory over Auburn, handing the Tigers their first loss of the season.

I think this is a terrible spot for Alabama.  They are coming off a big comeback win at No. 1 ranked Houston, pulling off the upset as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now they return home and will be fat and happy following that victory.

Last year, Memphis beat Alabama 92-78 as 3.5-point home underdogs.  Now Memphis is catching 8 points on the road in the rematch this season.  This is simply too many points in a game that is likely going to come down to the final possession or two.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after playing a game as an underdog.  It is coming back to lose outright by 5.1 points per game in this spot.  Memphis is 41-19 ATS in its last 60 games following an upset win a an underdog.  The Tigers are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 games as road dogs of 6.5 to 12 points.  Memphis is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Crimson Tide are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Bet Memphis Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -3.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have a massive home-court advantage.  They are 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 8.5 points per game.  They will be highly motivated to beat the defending champion Warriors tonight, and you know it's going to be a sell out and an even bigger home-court advantage than normal for the Bucks tonight.

The Warriors have been dreadful on the road going 2-11 SU & 3-10 ATS while getting outscored by 8.0 points per game.  They are without second-leading scorer Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG) and I don't give them much of a chance to even be competitive with the Bucks tonight without him.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Bucks won by 19 and 39 points in their last two home meetings with the Warriors.  Milwaukee is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Marshall -2

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with all nine victories coming by 9 points or more.  They are laying too short of a number against UNC-Greensboro tonight.

UNC-Greensboro is just 4-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season.  They are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging 65.4 points per game on 39.4% shooting.  I don't see how they can keep up with Marshall, which averages 82.1 points per game on 47.3% shooting.  

And it's not like the Thundering Herd are poor defensively.  They allow 38.9% shooting and are holding opponents to 6.6 points per game less than their season averages.  Greensboro holds opponents to 6.5 points per game less than their season averages and 41.5% shooting.  These teams are similar defensively, but there's a big discrepancy on offense.

Greensboro is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Spartans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Marshall Tuesday.

15* Celtics/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are as healthy as they have been all season with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup for a few games now.  The chemistry should get better with each passing game, and the Clippers should start playing like the team that was favored to win the NBA Finals coming into the season sooner rather than later.

Now they host a Boston Celtics team in a terrible spot.  The Celtics wanted revenge on the Warriors from losing to them in the NBA Finals and came up short Saturday, losing 107-123.  I think there will be a 'hangover' effect from that defeat.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

Plus, it's just time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who have the best record in the NBA.  They were favored on the road against the Warriors, and now they're even bigger favorites on the road against the Clippers.  Plus, they will be without Al Horford tonight and were already without Robert Williams, so they are going to get killed on the boards with how small they have to go.

The Clippers are equipped better than anyone to guard Brown and Tatum with George, Leonard and Batum.  This is a great matchup for them as a result and I fully expect them to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Roll with the Clippers Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Oklahoma City Thunder off two consecutive road losses to Memphis and Cleveland.  They had won their previous three games with two of them coming on the road in upset fashion at Minnesota and at Atlanta.  Now they are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  In those 22 games, they only won three times by double-digits, so they aren't blowing teams out.  The Mavericks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight as well.

The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Mavericks not once losing by double-digits.  In fact, they pulled the outright upset as double-digit dogs in each of their last two meetings with Dallas.

The Thunder are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 road games.  Dallas is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Oklahoma City is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 road games following two or more consecutive road losses.  Dallas is 5-13 ATS as a favorite this season.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

20* Patriots/Cardinals ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  QB Kyler Murray is back and he has his top two receivers healthy in DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown, plus Rondale Moore should return following a bye this week.  But the Cardinals have a very leaky defense that has allowed 29.8 points per game in their last six games.

The Patriots have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses this season.  But they have struggled when they have faced some legit offenses.  They allowed 24 points to the Bills, 33 points to the Vikings, 33 points to the Bears, 27 points to the Packers and 37 points to the Ravens.  The Cardinals will hang a big number on their slow defense, too.

But the Patriots should get their points against this suspect Arizona defense.  They have done well on offense against the worst defenses in the NFL.  They scored 26 points against the Vikings, 38 against the Browns, 29 against the Lions, 24 against the Packers and 26 against the Ravens.  I see both teams getting to at least 24 points in this one, and we only need a 24-21 final to cash this ticket.

The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last six games overall with combined scores of 44 or more points in all six and 48 or more points in five of them.  Arizona is 6-0 OVER in its last six home games after losing three of its last four games coming in.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers OVER 228

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 26th in defensive efficiency and are scoring 115.9 points per game while allowing 116.7 points per game.  Any total of less than 230 for the Pacers is worth a look to the OVER.

The Miami Heat are as healthy as they have been all season and are potent on offense when that's the case.  They have some of the best shooters in the NBA.  But they have slipped defensively this season, allowing 110.3 points per game on 47.5% shooting.  The loss of PJ Tucker has really hurt them defensively.

Six of Indiana's last eight games have seen 231 or more combined points.  Indiana is 18-4 OVER in its last 22 games following an upset loss as a home favorite.  Miami is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 road games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  The OVER is 35-15-1 in Pacers last 51 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Dolphins/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51.5

The Miami Dolphins have scored at least 30 points in four of their last five games.  The only team that held them in check was the 49ers, and they probably have the best defense in the NFL.  I think they hang another big number here against this depleted Chargers defense.

The Chargers have allowed at least 22 points in nine of their last 11 games overall.  The only exceptions were against poor Denver and Atlanta offenses.  There's a chance the Chargers get back Mike Williams and a couple offensive linemen this week, which would make them even more potent offensively.  They have scored at least 20 points in seven of their last nine games overall.  The Chargers rank 30th in scoring defense while the Dolphins rank 25th.

Miami just tends to get in shootouts on the road this season.  The Dolphins are scoring 26.2 points per game and allowing 32.8 points per game on the road this season.  That's an average of 59 combined points per game, which is 7.5 points more than this 51.5-point total.  The Chargers are allowing 28.0 points per game at home this season.

The OVER is 4-0 in Dolphins last four road games.  The OVER is 7-2 in Chargers last nine home games.  The OVER is 10-2 in Chargers last 12 games following a loss.  The OVER is 9-1 in Chargers last 10 games following a road loss.  The OVER is 8-1 in Dolphins last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday night.

20* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bucks/Rockets OVER 226.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 10th in pace this season and 29th in defensive efficiency, but they have talent on offense and can score.  They face a Milwaukee Bucks team that is as healthy as they have been all season now and one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA when that's the case.

The recent head-to-head history between Milwaukee and Houston really stands out.  The Bucks and Rockets have combined for at least 228 points in each of their last seven meetings.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 226.5-point total.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but it's pretty much a non-factor because they blew out the Mavericks 144-115 at home so they got to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.  Plus, the Bulls will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, so they are still very fresh and ready to go.

The Atlanta Hawks are in a world of hurt right now in the injury department, so they should not be favored in this game.  The only reason they are favored is because the Bulls are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Hawks are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Hawks are without Dejounte Murray (20.8 PPG, 6.2 APG) and John Collins (12.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG) tonight and could be without De'Andre Hunter (14.9 PPG), who is questionable.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday.  

20* Wisconsin/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin +4.5

Iowa got away with being without their best player on Thursday in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) in a 75-56 win over Iowa State in a game that closed Iowa -3.  Iowa State shot 3-of-22 (14%) from 3-point range while Iowa shot 12-of-23 (52%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen against Wisconsin.

Iowa's luck runs out today against a Wisconsin team that is 7-2 against the 27th-toughest schedule in the country.  The Badgers have wins over Maryland, Marquette, USC and Stanford.  Their two losses both came down to the wire in OT to Kansas by 1 and to Wake Forest by 3.  So they haven't lost by this margin yet this season.  And without Murray again, the Hawkeyes aren't going to get margin on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Badgers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Wisconsin Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Magic UNDER 222.5

I love this spot for an UNDER bet.  The Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic will be playing in a rematch from Friday's 113-109 home win by the Magic for 222 combined points.  Now they play again here just two days later, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

The Magic aren't going to shoot 59.2% from the field again like they did in that first meeting, which was played at a snail's pace.  Both of these teams prefer to slow it down as they are both tied at 19th in pace this season.  

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 222, 229, 191 and 200 points.  They Raptors and Magic have combined for 222 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  The UNDER is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings in Orlando.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Maryland/Tennessee FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 135

Tennessee ranks 1st in the country in adjusted defense.  They don't play particularly fast ranking 169th in pace, either.  The Vols are holding opponents to 51.2 points per game on 32.7% shooting, holding opponents to 21.5 points per game less than their season averages.

Maryland ranks 240th in adjusted tempo and likes to play slow.  The Terrapins are 8-1 this season in large part due to ranking 32nd in adjusted defense.  They are holding opponents to 61.3 points per game on 39.5% shooting, holding opponents to 10.0 points per game less than their season averages.

Tennessee is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games coming off two consecutive home games.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Vols' last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kevin Willard is 52-29 UNDER vs. poor shooting teams that make 42% or less as a head coach.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bucs/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -3.5

I recommend buying the 49ers to -3 (-125) or better.  We'll back a 49ers team playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with four wins by 13 points or more.  That includes their impressive 33-17 win over the Miami Dolphins last week.

The 49ers have the Seahawks on their heels for the NFC West lead, so they don't be having a letdown this week.  They get a week of practice with Brock Purdy running the offense and preparing to be the starter, which will benefit him.  Purdy played well in his first significant action of the season, completing 25-of-37 passes for 210 yards with two touchdowns and one interception on a 4th down play jump ball.  Players love him, and with Jimmy G being no more than a game manager, Purdy actually has more upside.

But the key here is the 49ers are going to shut down the Bucs.  The 49ers rank 1st in scoring defense at 15.8 points per game, 1st in total defense at 283.9 yards per game and 5th at 4.8 yards per play.  They have a tremendous defensive line and pass rush, and the Bucs have struggled against dominant defensive lines because they are missing so many starters on the offensive line, plus they just aren't very skilled in that department.  It's their biggest weakness.

It's the reason the Bucs are struggling so much on offense this season.  They rank 27th in scoring offense at 18.1 points per game, 17th in total offense at 340.0 yards per game and 25th at 5.0 yards per play.  They managed just 3 points against the Saints last week until their final two drives against the prevent to pull out a miracle victory.  The 49ers won't be playing prevent, and they will be getting after Brady for four quarters just as they did against Tua and the Dolphins last week, forcing them into four turnovers.  

The Dolphins are better than the Bucs, so the 49ers can't be 4.5-point home favorites over the Dolphins and only 3.5-point home favorites against the Bucs.  Especially with the Bucs now on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football and having to travel to the West Coast.  The value is on the 49ers this week due to Purdy being their quarterback, which is downgrading them in the betting markets more than it should be.

The Bucs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  San Francisco is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 vs. NFC opponents.  The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a non-conference game.  San Francisco is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games.  Kyle Shanahan is 7-0 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games as the coach of San Francisco.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -4.5

Youngstown State is 7-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road.  They are 3-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 32.7 points per game.  I think they are laying too short of a number here to Ohio.

Ohio is 0-4 SU in true road games this season and losing by 8.2 points per game.  And it's not like they've faced a murder's row on the road with the losses coming to Detroit, Belmont, Marshall and Michigan.

Ohio is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Youngstown State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Youngstown State Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions PK

The Detroit Lions have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall to keep their playoff hopes alive.  They are very much alive and well in the NFC, and I look for them to carry that momentum into a home win over the Minnesota Vikings Sunday.

The Vikings are 10-2 and the Lions are 5-7, but when you look at the numbers there isn't that much difference between these teams.  Amazingly, the Vikings are 10-2 despite getting outgained by 53 yards per game.  They are the most fraudulent 10-2 team in the history of the NFL due to going 9-0 in one score games.  Their luck runs out this week against the Lions.

The Vikings are coming off another misleading 27-22 home win over the Jets last week.  They were outgained by 199 yards by the Jets and should have lost.  There was nothing misleading about the Lions' 40-14 win over the Jaguars last week.  They outgained Jacksonville by 171 yards.  Their only loss during this five-game stretch came by 3 as 10-point home underdogs to the Bills on a last-second field goal.

The Lions rank 6th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game, 7th in total offense at 369.1 yards per game and 7th at 5.8 yards per play.  When they have been healthy, they have been dominant on offense.  They have been healthy lately and have scored 31.8 points per game in their last four games.  They will shred a Minnesota defense that ranks 31st in total defense at 398.7 yards per game and 30th at 6.0 yards per play.  S Harrison Smith, CB Patrick Peterson and LB Eric Kendricks are all questionable for the Vikings this week.

Detroit wants revenge from a 24-28 loss at Minnesota in their first meeting this season.  The Lions outgained the Vikings 416 to 373 and should have won.  But they blew a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter and gave up 14 points in the final eight minutes, including the game-winner with 45 seconds left.  They haven't forgotten, and they will get their revenge this week.

The Lions are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Detroit is 6-0 ATS in it last six games after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games.  The Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. NFC North opponents.  The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Detroit.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

20* NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +7

Let's just look at this from a line value perspective.  The Philadelphia Eagles were 6.5-point home favorites over the Packers two weeks ago and 4.5-point home favorites over the Titans last week.  The Giants beat both the Packers and Titans already this season.  And now the Eagles are 7-point road favorites at the Giants.  There's clearly value with the Giants catching 7 points at home.

The Giants are a tough team to get margin on.  They are 7-4-1 SU & 9-3 ATS this season with only two losses coming by more than one score.  And in those two losses by more than one score they actually outgained one team by 88 yards and were only outgained by 52 yards by the other, so they were misleading final scores.

The Giants rank 6th in the NFL in rushing this season at 149.7 yards per game.  Well, the one weakness of the Eagles is their run defense.  They have allowed at least 99 rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall.  They rank 24th in the NFL in allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  The Giants can stay in this game by running the ball, extending drives and keeping the Eagles' offense off the field.

The Eagles are 5-0 SU but just 1-4 ATS on the road this season.  They aren't getting margin on teams on the highway.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  The Giants have been home underdogs to the Eagles in each of their two previous home meetings and won both outright.

Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  New York is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Eagles this week in this divisional showdown on the road.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +6

The Cincinnati Bengals are in a massive letdown spot after their upset home win over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Joe Burrow is now 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes, but he's 0-5 against the Cleveland Browns.  The Browns have the Bengals' number, and that will continue Sunday.

Cleveland has saved its season with two consecutive impressive wins over the Bucs and Texans.  The defense is playing at a very high level right now holding the Bucs to 17 and the Texans to 14 points, while also forcing four turnovers against the Texans that set up several easy scores.

The headlines are that Deshaun Watson struggled, but that was expected in his first game action in two years.  He only attempted 22 passes and didn't have to do much because the defense controlled the game.  With a game under his belt now, he should be much more prepared to shine in Cincinnati.  Of course, he won't have to do too much in this one either because the Browns always run wild on the Bengals.

Indeed, the Browns are 5-0 SU in their last five meetings with the Bengals while averaging 32.8 points per game in those five wins.  They have averaged 165.4 rushing yards per game in the five wins as well.  Nick Chubb just has his way with this Cincinnati defense.  And Cleveland gets back star TE David Njoku, who caught the game-tying TD pass against the Bucs two weeks ago.

Burrow struggles against this Cleveland defense, too.  He's always under duress by Myles Garrett.  The Bengals have averaged just 15.0 points per game and 253 yards per game in their last three meetings with the Browns.  They lost 32-13 while getting outgained 440 to 229 by the Browns in their first meeting this season.

Plays against home teams (Cincinnati) - an excellent passing team averaging 7.3 YPA or more against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 YPA), after gaining 6.75 YPA or more in four consecutive games are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Browns Sunday.

20* Celtics/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Boston -2.5

The Boston Celtics are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games overall.  They have been making a statement this season that they are the best team in the NBA after losing in the NBA Finals last season.  And now they get their chance at revenge on the Golden State Warriors, who they lost to in the Finals.

The Celtics have had this game circled all offseason and won't waste this opportunity to get their revenge.  They'll be up against a banged up Warriors team that is playing without Andrew Wiggins (19.1 PPG) tonight.  That's a big loss because they needed him to guard either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.

Boston is a perfect 10-0 ATS after winning four of its last five games this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  Boston is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Celtics are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 road games.  Boston simply wants this one more.  Take the Celtics Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -2

This is a terrible spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They are coming off a hard-fought 105-106 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night on National TV.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after that defeat, and they won't have much left in the tank playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here.

This is a great spot for the Chicago Bulls.  They come in on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They will run the Mavericks out of the building tonight at home.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and this is a great 'buy low' spot on them after failing to cover four consecutive games coming in.

Dallas is 0-7 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games this season.  The Mavericks are 2-10 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Chicago is 24-11 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Dallas is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5

This is a terrible spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 95-106 home loss to the Sacramento Kings last night, who were without De'Aron Fox.  A big reason the Cavaliers struggled is because they are dealing with injuries of their own.

Indeed, Donovan Mitchell (29.0 PPG) missed that game and is questionable to return tonight.  They are also without Kevin Love (10.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG) right now, one of their top reserves off the bench.  Dean Wade (6.4 PPG) remains out as well.

The Thunder are fully healthy and playing well, going 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They come in on two days' rest and will clearly be the fresher team for this one.  So getting 6.5 points with them in this favorable spot is too much.

The Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on two days' rest.  Oklahoma City is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 road games.  Cleveland is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on zero rest.  The Cavaliers are 15-39-4 ATS in their last 58 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Thunder Saturday.

20* Arizona/Indiana FOX No-Brainer on Arizona PK

I think we are getting the Arizona Wildcats cheap at a PK today because they have failed to cover six of their last seven games overall.  This is a great time to 'buy low' on them as it's the first time all season they haven't been favored, and they have played a brutal schedule that has included Cincinnati, San Diego State, Creighton and Utah already.

Indiana has benefited from a much softer schedule with their best wins coming over Xavier and a banged-up UNC team.  They lost by 15 at Rutgers for their lone defeat, and they benefited from Nebraska being without one of their best players last game.  This is easily the toughest test of the season for Indiana.

This game is listed as a neutral, but no question the Wildcats will have the home-court advantage with more fans there with this game being played in Las Vegas.  Arizona has played the 85th-toughest schedule in the country while Indiana has played the 269th-toughest.  Jalen Hood-Schifino (8.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.1 APG) is questionable for the Hoosiers.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* Kansas/Missouri ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -3

I've been looking for spots to fade this Missouri Tigers team because they are overvalued due to their 9-0 record.  They have benefited from playing the 360th-ranked schedule in the country.  Now they take on a Kansas team that has played the 71st-toughest schedule in the country.

I faded Missouri with success last game as they struggled to even get by SE Missouri State 96-89 as a 21.5-point favorite.  And now I'll fade them again here against easily the toughest opponent they have faced to date in Kansas.  The previous toughest was Wichita State, and they needed OT to beat them.

Kansas has wins over Duke, NC State, Wisconsin and Seton Hall (by 26) already this season.  Their lone loss came against a very good Tennessee team.  Kansas beat Missouri 102-65 at home last season.  The favorite is now 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Memphis/Auburn ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Auburn -1

Bruce Pearl is doing a tremendous job at Auburn.  The Tigers are off to another great start this season at 8-0 SU.  I know it hasn't come against the most difficult schedule, but that's why were are getting them cheap here at basically a PK against the Memphis Tigers.

I trust Pearl more than Penny Hardaway, who just hasn't been able to get the most out of the talent on hand unlike Pearly.  Memphis already has two losses this season to Saint Louis and Seton Hall, and Auburn beat Saint Louis.  Seton Hall has lost by 26 to Kansas, by 16 to Iowa, by 13 to Oklahoma and lost outright to Siena, so that loss looks really poor now.

Auburn is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following seven or more consecutive wins.  Memphis is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 December games.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* Washington State/UNLV FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNLV -1.5

The UNLV Rebels are 9-0 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  This game against Washington State is listed as a neutral site venue, but it will basically be a home game for the Rebels being played at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.  Fans will come out in droves to watch this team try and keep their perfect record alive today.

Washington State is just 4-4 this season with its four wins coming against Texas State, Eastern Washington, Detroit and Northern Kentucky where they were substantial favorites in all four games.  They even lost outright as favorites to Utah, Boise State and Prairie Vie A&M.  They also lost by 14 at Oregon with three of their four losses coming by double-digits.  This team is way overvalued this season.

The Cougars are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Washington State is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with UNLV Saturday.

15* SDSU/Saint Mary's ESPN+ ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -1

The San Diego State Aztecs have a tremendous fan base and will have the home-court advantage despite this being played on a neutral in Phoenix.  Fans are excited about this team, and for good reason as the Aztecs are 7-2 this season with their two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in Arizona and Arkansas.

The Aztecs also have wins over BYU, Stanford and Ohio State and have played the 21st-toughest schedule in the country.  St. Mary's is 7-3 this season against the 99th-ranked schedule.  They have upset losses to Washington and New Mexico already this season.  Their best wins are over Missouri State, Vanderbilt and North Texas.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (San Diego State) - off a SU home win but ATS loss, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 73-36 (67%) ATS since 1997.  The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take San Diego State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Purdue/Nebraska UNDER 138

Purdue ranks 265th in adjusted tempo and 29th in adjusted defense.  Nebraska ranks 266th in adjusted tempo and 73rd in adjusted defense.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, and Nebraska's improvement defensively this season is not being factored into these totals enough.

Purdue is holding opponents to 11.5 points per game less than their season averages.  Nebraska is holding opponents to 5.9 points per game less than their season averages.  They just held Creighton to 53 points in an upset victory two games back.

Guard Mason Gillis (5.7 PPG, 44.4% 3-pointers) is questionable for Purdue while G Sam Griesel (11.3 PPG, 35.7% 3-pointers) is questionable for Nebraska today after sitting out at Indiana.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Boilermakers last 22 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Cornhuskers last 11 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Bucks/Mavericks ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Milwaukee PK

The Milwaukee Bucks are back to full strength for the first time all season.  They have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall and I think we are getting them at a great value as a PK against the Dallas Mavericks tonight.

The Mavericks are starting to get some respect after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But keep in mind they were 2-14-1 ATS in their previous 17 games.  This teams isn't very good, they aren't defending like they did last year, and they rely too much on Luka Doncic.  The Bucks have answers for him on defense that most teams don't with their length.

Dallas is 0-7 ATS following a loss by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after winning four or five of their last six games.  Dallas is 0-6 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Milwaukee tonight.  Take the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  I love the spot for them tonight because one of their non-covers came on December 4th just five days ago against the Memphis Grizzlies in a 10-point home loss as 6.5-point dogs.

Now the Pistons will be out for revenge from that defeat and are catching 10.5 points on the road in the rematch.  That's too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage, and too much considering the revenge factor as the Pistons will want this one more than the Grizzlies.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Grizzlies, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now they are double-digit favorites for the first time in their last 16 games.  You're paying a tax to back the Grizzlies at this point.

Detroit is 9-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Pistons are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Detroit is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games.  The Pistons have only lost one of their last 15 games by more than 10 points, making for a 14-1 system backing them pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Cavaliers OVER 222.5

This is a very low total for a game involving the Sacramento Kings.  The Kings rank 6th in the NBA in pace, 5th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency.  They are a dead nuts OVER team with the way they play.  15 of their last 16 games have seen at least 219 combined points.  Sacramento games are averaging 235.3 combined points per game this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the most efficiency offensive teams in the NBA as they rank 9th in offensive efficiency.  They will get whatever they want against the Kings, and they won't hesitate to get in a track meet with them, either.

These teams just met on November 9th a month ago with the Kings winning 127-120 for 247 combined points.  That's 24.5 points more than this posted total of 222.5, so there's clearly value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Spurs OVER 233.5

Both the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs are dead nuts OVER teams.  The Spurs rank 6th in pace while the Rockets rank 13th.  The Spurs rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency while the Rockets rank 28th.

The Spurs have lost 11 consecutive games and have allowed 117 or more points in 12 consecutive games.  The Rockets have allowed 120 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.  I think both teams get to 117-plus in this one, which is all we need to cash this OVER 233.5 ticket.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between San Antonio and Houston with combined scores of 243, 237, 238 and 252 points with none of those games going to overtime.  Enough said.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Raiders/Rams Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Las Vegas -5.5

The Las Vegas Raiders have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall to keep their playoff hopes alive.  There was nothing fluky about any of the three wins as they outgained their three opponents in the Chargers, Seahawks and Broncos by a combined 309 yards, or by an average of 103 yards per game.  Now they carry that momentum into their easiest opponent of the season Thursday night in the depleted Los Angeles Rams.

The only team worse than the Rams right now is the Houston Texans.  The Rams have lost six consecutive games with four of those losses by 7 points or more.  They were outgained in five of those six games and have been outgained by a total of 649 yards in those six games, or by an average of 108.2 yards per game.

Things are getting worse for the Rams before they get better.  They are without their three best players for this game in Stafford, Kupp and Donald.  They were so desperate that they even picked up Baker Mayfield off waivers after he wore out his welcome in Carolina.  There's a chance he even plays in this game, which would be a good thing for us if he does.

The Raiders got good news on the injury front with TE Darren Waller expected to make his return from a hamstring injury to give Derek Carr another weapon.  Of course, the Raiders have been thriving in the running game and with the Carr to Adams connection.  They have rushed for 182 yards per game in their last three games.  Adams has 79 receptions for 1,176 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.  

The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in five of their six losses during this six-game skid.  They have scored 20 or fewer points five times.  Whoever is under center will be playing behind an offensive line that ranks dead last in the NFL in pass blocking efficiency.  That's bad news going up against the tandem of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, who have really been getting after opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks.

This will pretty much be a home game for the Las Vegas Raiders.  The fair-weather Rams fans have given up on this team already.  Fans that live in the Los Angeles area, which there are millions of, will turn out to this game to support the Raiders.  It's also a short trip from Las Vegas to Los Angeles.  You'll hear fans cheering more for the Raiders than for the Rams in this one.

The Rams are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing 400 or more yards in two consecutive games.  Los Angeles is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games vs. AFC opponents.  Las Vegas is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in its previous game.  The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in their previous game.  Bet the Raiders Thursday.

20* Iowa State/Iowa FS1 No-Brainer on Iowa State +5.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are legit.  They are 7-1 this season with their lone loss coming to Connecticut, which may be the best team in the country at 10-0.  They have upset wins over UNC and Villanova and also handed St. John's their only loss of the season, 71-60.

The Cyclones beat the Hawkeyes 73-53 at home last season.  Iowa isn't as good as they were last season, and they could be without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG).  He was seen in a walking boot on Wednesday after suffering an injury early against Duke, but playing through it in a 62-74 loss on Tuesday.  Now the Hawkeyes are in a terrible spot playing their 2nd game in 3 days after having to travel back from Madison Square Garden where they played Duke in the Jimmy V Classic.  

Murray was clearly hobbled as he went 3-for-9 for 8 points against the Blue Devils and wasn't nearly as aggressive as he usually is.  With Murray at anything less than 100%, the Hawkeyes should not be 5.5-point home favorites over the Cyclones, let alone favored at all.  Iowa has been exposed when stepping up in class losing by 12 to Duke and by 13 to TCU against their two best opponents thus far.

Iowa State has had the last three days off and will the fresher, more prepared team.  Their defense travels as they rank 13th in the country in defensive efficiency.  They are holding opponents to 37.3% shooting overall and 26.3% from 3-point range while allowing only 56.7 points per game.  They are holding opponents to 17.5 points per game less than their season averages.

Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover two of its last three games.  The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

15* UConn/Florida ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4.5

The UConn Huskies are legitimately one of the top teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS this season with all nine wins coming by double-digits.  That includes wins over Oregon by 24, Alabama by 15 and Iowa State by 18 on neutrals.

The Huskies rank 8th in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense.  They are +27.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average.  Florida is only +13.8 points per game based on the same criteria, meaning UConn is 14 points better.  Yet they are only 4.5-point road favorites tonight, which is a discount.

Florida already has three losses this season and two of them were very concerning.  They lost outright as a 12-point home favorite to Florida Atlantic and were crushed by 29 by West Virginia on a neutral.  They also lost to Xavier by 7 on a neutral.  Their six wins have all come against overmatched competition with five of the wins coming as double-digits favorites.  When they have stepped up in class they have lost, and now they face their toughest opponent to date.

The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Gators are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Connecticut Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +6.5

The Sacramento Kings are finally a legit team this year but oddsmakers are failing to catch up to it.  The Kings are 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They are once again catching too many points tonight at Milwaukee..  The spot is good for the Kings as they come in on two days' rest.

The Bucks have let each of the last four teams hang around and it was against four bad teams, too.  They only beat the Knicks by 6, lost outright to the Lakers at home, only beat the Hornets by 9 and only beat the Magic by 7.  Both the Magic and Hornets are depleted due to injury right now, too.  It will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Bucks tonight as well.

Sacramento is 10-1 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Milwaukee is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following two consecutive road wins.  The Kings are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The Bucks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past two seasons.  They didn't get the wins to show for it last season, but they continually covered inflated numbers.  Now they are starting to get some wins to show for their efforts.

Indeed, the Thunder are 11-13 SU but 15-9 ATS this season and only getting outscored by 0.7 points per game.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Memphis Grizzlies, who are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 points per game on the season.  The Grizzlies are still without one of their best players in Desmond Bane, too, while the Thunder are almost fully healthy.

The Thunder are 41-17-3 ATS in their last 61 games following an ATS win.  Oklahoma City is 36-15 ATS in its last 51 road games.  The Thunder are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with upset road wins at Minnesota and Atlanta and only a 4-point loss at New Orleans.  Take the Thunder Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on SE Missouri State ML +105

Both SE Missouri State and IUPU-Fort Wayne sit at 5-4 this season.  The difference is SE Missouri State has played a much tougher schedule and is clearly the better team, thus they should not be home underdogs to Fort Wayne tonight.

The Redhawks upset South Florida and Evansville on the road and Boston on a neutral.  They only lost by 13 at Bradley and by 7 at Missouri as 21.5-point dogs, a Missouri team that remains undefeated this season.  They have only played two home games, which resulted in wins by 37 and 36 points.

The Mastadons have already played five home games and actually were upset by Detroit, and nearly upset by SIU Edwardsville and Oakland.  They are 1-3 on the highway with their only win coming on a neutral as a favorite against lowly Eastern Michigan.

SE Missouri State is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. team that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Redhawks are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  The Mastadons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take SE Missouri State on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* CBB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Pennsylvania +14.5

Pennsylvania is catching too many points tonight.  The only blowout road losses they suffered came early in the season at Iona and at West Virginia.  Their other four losses have all come by 7 points or fewer, including a 7-point loss at Missouri which remains undefeated.

Villanova is way down this season and should not be laying 14.5-points to Pennsylvania, which is probably the best team in the Ivy League when at full strength, which they are right now.  The Wildcats are just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS this season.  Their three wins came over LaSalle by 13, Delaware State by 10 and Oklahoma by 3.

So the Wildcats haven't won by this margin all season.  They also suffered upset losses to Temple, Iowa State, Portland and Oregon.  Oddsmakers have not caught up to how poor this team is, and that is clearly the case again tonight listing Villanova as a 14.5-point favorite in a rivalry game here against a potent Pennsylvania squad.

Penn is 71-49 ATS in its last 120 games following two consecutive losses.  The Quakers are 47-24 ATS in their last 71 road games vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game.  The Quakers are 59-27 ATS in their last 86 road games vs. teams that average 33 or fewer rebounds per game.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Pennsylvania Wednesday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Sam Houston State +10

Sam Houston State is 7-1 this season with its only loss coming on the road at Nevada.  That includes upset road wins at Oklahoma and at Utah as double-digit underdogs.  Oklahoma is 6-2 this season while Utah just beat Arizona to improve to 7-2 this season.  Nevada is also 7-2 this season.

Oklahoma State is clearly vulnerable this season.  The Cowboys were upset at home by Southern Illinois, upset on a neutral by UCF and lost by 10 at UConn.  They also only beat UT-Arlington by 11 at home and DePaul by 4 on a neutral.  Sam Houston State is more than capable of taking the Cowboys to the wire, so catching double-digits here is too much.

Sam Houston State is +11.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Oklahoma State is 15.3 points per game given the same criteria.  So the Cowboys are only +3.4 points per game better than Sam Houston State, thus this line should not be double-digits even when you adjust for home-court advantage.

Sam Houston State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good shooting teams making 45% or better.  Oklahoma State is 0-6 ATS in its last six December home games.  The Bearkats are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 games overall, including 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games.  Bet Sam Houston State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas-Little Rock +28

Memphis should not be a 28-point favorite over Little Rock tonight.  The Tigers have a way of playing to their level of competition.  They are 6-2 this season but their largest margin of victory has been 19 points.  Now they are asked to lay 28 points to Little Rock.

This despite Little Rock only losing one game by more than 22 points this season despite playing a tough schedule.  They only lost by 19 at Indiana as 28.5-point dogs, and Indiana is better than Memphis.

Memphis is +12.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Little Rock is -10.1 points per game given the same criteria, so 23 points worth than Memphis.  But we don't get to 28 even when adjusting for home-court advantage.  Then you have to factor in the sandwich spot, which shows Memphis coming off a win over Ole Miss and with Auburn on deck Saturday.  They will be looking ahead to that game.

Little Rock is 15-4-2 ATS in its last 21 games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Arkansas-Little Rock Tuesday.

15* CBB Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tarleton State +19.5

Tarleton State has been too good this season to be getting this many points even to Baylor.  The Texans are 5-3 this season with upset wins over Belmont by 8 and Boston College by 16.  They three losses all came to three very good teams and were competitive, losing by 3 at Arizona State as 14-point dogs, by 7 to Drake and by 12 at Wichita State.

Baylor is clearly down this season with two losses already, and the six wins mostly coming against overmatched competition with the exception of a 5-point win over UCLA and a 1-point win over Gonzaga.  They also lost by 26 at Marquette and by 7 to Virginia.  Tarleton is the best team they will have faced outside the Power 5 teams, and I think the Texans give them a run for their money tonight.

Tarleton is +5.4 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Baylor is 16.4 points per game given the same criteria, so 11.0 points per game better than Tarleton.  We don't get to 19.5 points even when we adjust for home-court advantage and strength of schedule here, so there's clearly value on the Texans.

Tarleton State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Baylor is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Roll with Tarleton State Tuesday.

20* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Lakers +5.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are as healthy as they have been all season right now and are starting to play up to their potential as a result.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They continue to be lacking the respect they deserve as 5.5-point underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

Cleveland is banged up and hasn't been playing great for a few weeks now.  They are just 7-8 SU & 6-8-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They should not be 5.5-point home favorites over the Lakers with the way they are playing right now.  Cleveland is 14-39-4 ATS in its last 57 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +10

Wisconsin-Milwaukee is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 7-3 SU this season with two of their losses coming on the road to Purdue and Iowa State, which are two Top 25 opponents and they were competitive with Iowa State.  They also lost by 4 to St. Thomas at home.

Milwaukee should not be catching double-digits tonight considering they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Chattanooga is 5-3 SU this season with three wins by 11 points or more over Oakland City, Covenant and Gardner Webb.  They aren't blowing out any decent teams as they only beat Murray State by 3 and Tennessee Tech by 7.  They also lost outright to Lipscomb at home.

Milwaukee is +4.2 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Chattanooga is +5 points per game given the same criteria, only 0.8 points per game better than Milwaukee.  This line should be much closer to PK than 10.  Milwaukee is 7-0 ATS in its last seven December road games.  Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Kent State +15

Kent State is the most underrated team in the country. The Golden Flashes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-0 ATS this season.  Their two losses came by 2 at College of Charleston as a 2.5-point dog and by 5 at Houston as 19-point dogs.  Houston is 8-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Charleston is 8-1 and also one of the most underrated teams in the country.

If Kent State can play with Houston on the road, it can play with Gonzaga on the road.  Keep in mind the six wins by Kent State have all come by 15 points or more this season, too.  The Golden Flashes are +14.9 points per game versus what their opponents average on offense and defense this season.

Gonzaga is +17.4 points per game given the same criteria, which means they'd only be favored by 2.5 points over Kent State on a neutral if you don't adjust for strength of schedule.  But the Bulldogs are 15-point home favorites here, which is way too high given what we've seen from them thus far.

Gonzaga is one of the most overrated teams in the country at 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS despite being favored in every game but one this season, which was a 19-point loss at Texas.  They only beat Xavier by 4 and Michigan State by 1, while also losing by 16 to Purdue and by 1 to Baylor.  They have played a tough schedule for once early in the season, and they have been exposed.  This is one of the worst Gonzaga teams we've seen in years.

The Golden Flashes are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Kent State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.  The Bulldogs are 3-12-2 ATS n their last 18 games overall.  Gonzaga is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Kent State Monday.

20* Saints/Bucs ESPN No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3.5

This line has been bet down from an opener of -6.5 to -3.5 this week.  That's too big of a move, and now the value is with the Bucs laying the short number at home.  Keep in mind Tampa Bay was a 2.5-point road favorite at New Orleans in their first meeting this season, and is now only a 3.5-point home favorite in the rematch.  That's a 1-point adjustment for home-field advantage when it should be anywhere from 4 to 6 points.

Both teams have been hit hard by injuries this season, but I still think the Bucs are better off in that department.  Brady has all of his top playmakers healthy and ready to go.  The defense still remains one of the best units in the league.  The offensive line is a problem, but they can scheme around it, and Brady is the best at getting the most out of an offensive line.

The Saints are broken on offense and cannot be trusted.  They have scored 13 or fewer points in three of their last four games and were just shut out by the 49ers last time out.  Now they must take on an elite Tampa Bay defense that ranks 6th in scoring defense at 18.5 points per game, 9th in total defense at 315.2 yards per game and 8th at 5.0 yards per play.  The Bucs are better on both sides of the football in this one.

New Orleans is a tired team right now as they have yet to have their bye week.  Tampa Bay just had its bye week prior to losing at Cleveland last week, so they should still be pretty fresh for this one.  The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five Monday games.

Plays on any team (Tampa Bay) - after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 79-38 (67.5%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Bucs Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat ML +110

The Miami Heat are finally getting healthy and it's starting to show in their play.  They have won four of their last five games overall and are coming off an upset win at Boston in Jimmy Butler's return from injury.  Now they have had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Grizzlies, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 122-112 win in Detroit Sunday.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Grizzlies yesterday.  I like the spot when I released this pick this morning, but I love it even more now given the injury report that has come out for the Grizzlies since.

Memphis will be without Desmond Bane, Danny Green, Ziaire Williams, Jake LaRavia and Jaren Jackson Jr. tonight.  Both JA Morant and John Konchar are questionable.  The Heat will have no problem blowing out the Grizzlies given who they will be putting out on the court tonight.

Miami is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games following three consecutive road games.  Take the Heat on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors PK

The Toronto Raptors are as healthy as they've been all season with their six best players in Siakam, Anunoby, VanVleet, Trent Jr, Barnes and Boucher all healthy right now.  Five of the six have missed at least three games this season, so that is important.  I think they are ready to take down the Boston Celtics tonight.

Boston is in a terrible spot, while it's a favorable one for the Raptors, who had yesterday off.  The Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They just won 103-92 in Brooklyn last night after losing in OT to the Heat the game prior.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight.  Al Horford is out while Malcolm Brogdon is questionable tonight.

The Raptors are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  The Raptors are 16-6 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  Roll with the Raptors Monday.

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +6

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past two seasons.  They didn't get the wins to show for it last season, but they continually covered inflated numbers.  Now they are starting to get some wins to show for their efforts.

Indeed, the Thunder are 10-13 SU but 14-9 ATS this season and only getting outscored by 1.0 points per game.  Let's just compare that to the Hawks, who are 13-10 SU but 10-12-1 ATS and only outscoring opponents by 0.7 points per game this season.  Given those numbers, the Thunder should not be catching 6 points here.

Now you have to factor in that the Thunder are fully healthy right now while the Hawks are not.  They are without John Collins, and both Trae Young and DeAndre Hunter are questionable tonight.  I assume Young is playing or this line wouldn't be this high, but the fact that he's hampered by a shoulder injury is not good for the Hawks.

The Thunder are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Oklahoma City is 40-17-3 ATS in its last 60 games following an ATS win.  The Thunder are 24-11 ATS in the last 35 meetings, and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 trips to Atlanta.  Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following an upset win as an underdog.  Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams that make 33% or less.  Take the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

This line is short due to the Sacramento Kings playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 123-96 win over the Clippers yesterday.  But they had two days off prior to that game, and no starter played more than 30 minutes for the Kings due to the blowout win.  They will still be very fresh and ready to go for the Bulls tonight.

Chicago is one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA.  They have gone just 9-13 SU and are 1-3 SU in their last four games with road losses to the Thunder, Suns and Warriors.  They weren't really even competitive with Phoenix or Golden State, and they won't be competitive with Sacramento, either.

Plays against road underdogs (Chicago) - following two or more consecutive road losses against an opponent that is off a road win by 10 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Kings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on zero rest.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pistons OVER 228.5

The Detroit Pistons have gone way OVER the total in consecutive games.  They combined for 250 points with New York and then 256 points with Dallas in a OT game that was still at 234 at the end of regulation.  It think we easily get up and OVER 228.5 in this matchup with the Grizzlies.

Memphis has scored 115 or more points in five of its last nine games overall.  Memphis has allowed at least 109 points in seven consecutive games.  Memphis and Detroit combined for 239 points in their most recent meetings.

The OVER is 14-4 in Pistons last 18 non-conference home games.  The OVER is 9-3-1 in Pistons last 13 home games.  The Pistons rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 115.8 points per 100 possessions.  Memphis is only 19th in defensive efficiency.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nebraska/Creighton OVER 141

Creighton is an elite offensive team that is coring 81.7 points per game on 49.8% shooting this season.  The Bluejays will carry the heavy lifting in helping us cash this OVER ticket.  The Huskers average 70.7 points per game on 46.7% shooting an can do their part, too.

My favorite angle on this play is the head-to-head history.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings as Creighton and Nebraska have combined for 146, 172, 171 and 179 points in the last four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 167 combined points per game, which is 26 points more than this 141-point total.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Chiefs/Bengals AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53

This game has shootout written all over it between two of the best offenses in the NFL.  We are going to get the right conditions for a shootout in Cincinnati as well with the forecast calling for temps in the 40's, sunny skies, only 6 MPH wind and zero chance of precipitation.

Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring offense at 29.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 430 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play.  Cincinnati ranks 5th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game and those numbers would be even better if they were healthy on offense all season.  Well, reinforcements are on the way this week as both WR Ja'Marr Chase and RB Joe Mixon return from injury in time for this huge showdown with Kansas City.

The return of those two cannot be overstated.  Chase has 47 receptions for 605 yards and six touchdowns in only seven games this season.  Mixon has 605 rushing yards and six touchdowns, while also catching 41 balls for 314 yards and two scores.  Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL already, and now he has his full allotment of weapons this week.

Last year Cincinnati won a 34-31 over Kansas City shootout at home while racking up 475 yards and allowing 414 yards.  Each of the last four meetings in this series have seen 51 or more combined points, including 55 or more in three of those.  The OVER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine road games.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in Bengals last six games overall.  Kansas City is 7-0 OVER in its last seven road games vs. teams that complete 64% of their passes or better.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Dolphins/49ers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins are are perfect 8-0 SU in games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa this season.  That includes upset wins over the Ravens and Bills.  And now I think they have a great shot of upsetting the San Francisco 49ers this week.

Miami got out to a 30-0 lead over the Houston Texans in the first half last week before calling off the dogs.  They rested their starters in the second half of that game and it was a misleading 30-15 final as a result.  But resting starters in the second half also keeps them fresher for this game against the 49ers.  They had a bye the previous week after beating the Browns 39-17 the week prior.  So they are as fresh as they can be right now.

The 49ers needed a last-minute stop to beat the Chargers by 6 three weeks ago, then went into Mexico City and beat up on a banged up Arizona team on Monday Night Football before a 13-0 win over the Saints last week.  Miraculously, they shut out the Saints despite New Orleans having the ball inside the San Francisco 25-yard line three times in the second half.  They missed a FG, fumbled and turned it over on downs.  That was closer than a 13-0 game as the 49ers only outgained the Saints by 57 yards.

No question the 49ers have an elite defense and one of the best stop units in the NFL.  But I just don't trust their offense to get margin.  This line should be San Francisco -3 at the most.  Jimmy G is still no more than a game manager.  And three key playmakers on offense are banged up and either out or questionable in Deebo Samuel, Christan McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell.

The 49ers have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses this season.  When they actually faced a top offense in the Chiefs they gave up 44 points in a 21-point loss.  I think they will struggle to handle all this speed the Dolphins offer.  Tyreke Hill already has 87 receptions, 1,233 yards and four touchdowns while Jaylen Waddle has 56 receptions, 963 yards and six scores.  And you know Miami RB's Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert will be extra motivated for this game after the 49ers traded both of them away.  They have combined for 1,220 rushing yards and seven scores and have been a fantastic two-headed monster.

The 49ers don't have much of a home-field advantage, and I think them being at home is being factored into this line too much.  The Dolphins are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following an ATS win.  Again, Miami is 8-0 SU in games started and finished by Tua this season.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Los Angeles Rams are the worst team in the NFL in their current form.  And that's crazy to say coming from a team that just won the Super Bowl.  But the fact of the matter is they are without their three best players in Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp.  They are also without Allen Robinson and playing with three replacement-level receivers.  Their entire offensive line is replacement-level, too.

The Rams have gone 0-5 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost by 17 to the 49ers, by 3 to the Bucs, by 10 to the Cardinals, by 7 to the Saints and by 16 to the Chiefs.  They were held to 198 total yards against the Chiefs last week playing with third-string QB Bryce Perkins.  It won't get any better for their offense this week even against a suspect Seattle defense.  They can load up at the line of scrimmage because Perkins isn't going to be able to beat them through the air.  He is averaging just 2.8 passing yards per attempt, and the Rams rank dead last in pass blocking efficiency.

I love the spot for the Seahawks.  They are coming off two consecutive tough losses to the Bucs and Raiders.  They had a bye in between so they should still be fresh.  And the two losses in a row assure they won't have a letdown here against the Rams, which is what it would take for them to even be competitive.  Pete Carroll is an impressive 19-4 SU & 19-3-1 ATS following two consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle.

The Rams have allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games and they will struggle to slow down this impressive Seattle offense, especially without their best player in Aaron Donald clogging up the middle.  This will be the first game he has missed this season.  Seattle ranks 4th in scoring offense at 26.5 points per game and 4th at 6.0 yards per play.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, too.

The Seahawks are 41-20-4 ATS in their last 65 games following a loss.  The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and will have zero home-field advantage given the current state of this team, which fans are not excited about.  I think it will feel more like a home game for Seattle.  Carroll is 6-0 ATS after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in two consecutive games as the coach of Seattle with the Seahawks winning by 14.1 points per game in this spot.  Roll with the Seahawks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +22

It's time to 'sell high' on the Missouri Tigers.  They are 8-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  They have played seven home games against bottom feeders and earned an 88-84 win at Wichita State last time out.  It's now a sandwich spot for the Tigers with Kansas on deck.

I think the Tigers will be flat for this one, and I think SE Missouri State is good enough to hang within 22 points today.  They are 5-3 on the season which includes an upset win at South Florida as an 11-point dog, an upset win at Evansville as a 2-point dog and a 13-point loss at Bradley.  They haven't lost a game by more than 16 points this season.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Missouri) - after covering five or six of their last seven, a top team (80% or better) against a good team (60% to 80%) are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Redhawks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Redhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet SE Missouri State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -1

The New Orleans Pelicans are rolling right now and should be more than 1-point home favorites over the Denver Nuggets today.  The Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-2 AS in their last 10 games overall.  Their two losses came to Boston and Memphis.

The Denver Nuggets are also 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, but they have been feasting on a weak schedule beating the Thunder in OT, the short-handed Clippers and the Rockets twice.  They lost by 8 at Atlanta.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Pelicans Sunday.

20* St. John's/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. John's +7

Iowa State has been overvalued since an upset win over then-No. 1 UNC and also an upst win over Villanova the game prior.  Well, both those blue bloods are down this season as UNC has lost three straight, and Villanova is 3-5 this season.

The Cyclones have since failed to cover two in a row losing by 18 to UConn as 5.5-point dogs and only beating a bad North Dakota team by 19 as 24.5-point favorites.  They should not be favored by 7 over St. John's today.

The Red Storm are 8-0 this season with wins over Syracuse, Temple and Nebraska.  I know they have played the easier schedule, but this is a veteran team that got some great transfers and is better than they are getting credit for here with this lack of respect as 7-point dogs.

St. John's is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.  Bet St. John's Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on North Carolina +1

This is a great 'buy low' opportunity on the UNC Tar Heels.  They were the No. 1 ranked team in the country until losing three straight to Iowa State, Alabama and Indiana.  Now we are getting them as underdogs to a Virginia Tech team that will be a big step down in class for the Tar Heels.

Virginia Tech is 7-1 against one of the easiest schedule in the country.  They lost to College of Charleston, and their seven wins have come against Delaware State, Lehigh, William & Mary, Old Dominion (by 4), Penn State (by 2), Charleston Southern (by 5) and Minnesota.  This will be their toughest test yet, and it's worth noting UNC beat College of Charleston by 16.

Virginia Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Tar Heels are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with North Carolina Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Lions OVER 50.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 8th in total offense at 362.9 yards per game and 8th at 5.8 yards per play.  The Lions are dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 414.5 yards per game and 32nd at 6.3 yards per play.

The Jaguars haven't exactly been stopping anyone, either.  They rank 21st in allowing 5.7 yards per play this season.  But they have gotten their offense going in recent weeks with 27 points three weeks ago against the Raiders and 28 against the Ravens last week.  I see both teams getting 28-plus in this one, and we only need a 27-24 final to cash this OVER ticket.

The Lions have really been an OVER team of late because they have gotten healthy on offense.  They have scored 25, 31 and 31 points in their last three games overall.  Detroit's five non-divisional home games have all seen 53 or more combined points and an average of 68 combined points per game.

The OVER is 6-1 in Jaguars last seven road games.  The OVER is 9-4 in Lions last 13 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jets/Vikings OVER 44.5

The Minnesota Vikings are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have a very good offense that has recently put up 33 points against New England and 33 against Buffalo in two of their last three games.  But their defense has been terrible all season, especially of late.  They rank 31st in total defense at 390.7 yards per game allowed and 31st at 6.1 yards per play.  They have allowed 32 points per game in their last three games and just gave up 26 points and 409 yards to a bad Patriots offense last week.

The Jets were an UNDER team in the first half of the season, but the switch to Mike White at quarterback has rejuvenated this offense.  He went 22-of-29 for 308 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-10 win over Chicago last week.  He has his full compliment of weapons at receiver with Cory Davis back healthy to go with the underrated duo of Wilson and Moore.  White will light up this Minnesota defense, too.

The Jets have a great defense, but they have also benefited from a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They faced the Bears and a backup QB last week, the Patriots twice, the Broncos, the Packers, the Dolphins without Tua and the Steelers.  They did hold the Bills in check, but that's a division opponent they are familiar with.  Against the three other top offenses they faced they gave up 24 points to the Ravens, 30 to the Browns and 27 to the Bengals.  Minnesota can get 24-plus in this one pretty easily.

Minnesota's six home games this season have seen an average of 49.2 combined points per game.  The Vikings are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 home games.  The OVER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 games on fieldturf.  The OVER is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 games after rushing for fewer than 90 yards last game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.