20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +11.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are catching too many points tonight at home against Auburn.  The Commodores have quietly gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 2 as 15.5-point dogs at Memphis, beating Dartmouth by 16 as 13.5-point home favorites, losing by 3 as 12.5-point home dogs to Alabama and losing by 8 as 8.5-point dogs at LSU.  They were even competitive in their 13-point loss at Ole Miss as 10-point dogs, and that's an Ole Miss team that is 15-1 this season.

If the Commodores can nearly upset Alabama at home and Memphis on the road, they can certainly stay within 11.5 points of Auburn.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Tigers, who have gone 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall against a pretty soft schedule.  They have only played two true road games all season and one of them resulted in an upset loss at Appalachian State as 7.5-point favorites.

Vanderbilt is 12-3 SU & 8-5 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with Auburn.  The Commodores upset the Tigers 67-65 as 3-point home dogs last season.  Plays against road teams as a favorite or PK (Auburn) - a hot team having covered six or seven of its last eight games, a top-level team winning 80% of its games or more against a losing team are 45-12 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Vanderbilt Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pelicans OVER 229

The Charlotte Hornets have been a dead nuts under team without La'Melo Ball this season.  But he recently returned from injury, giving us the opportunity to 'buy low' on a Hornets OVER.  They are a much better offensive team with Ball in the lineup and they play with a lot more pace with him as well.

The Pelicans are fully healthy right now and an elite offensive team when that's the case.  They have scored an average of 125.0 points per game in their last five games.  I think they get to 125-plus tonight, and the Hornets do enough to push this one OVER the total.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (New Orleans) - off a road loss, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team that wins 25% or less are 28-5 (84.8%) since 1996.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +16

The San Antonio Spurs are 2-5 SU but 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall playing their most competitive basketball of the season.  They only lost at Memphis by 8, to the Bucks by 4, to the Cavs by 2, to the Bulls by 6 and at the Hawks by 10 in their five defeats during this stretch.  Now they are catching too many points once again to the Boston Celtics tonight.

Boston is overvalued due to its 19-0 home record this season.  But they needed OT recently at home to beat both the Pistons and the Timberwolves.  With this perfect home record comes expectations that are difficult to live up to, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Celtics as a result.

Three starters in Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis and Derrick White are all questionable to play tonight for the Celtics.  Jaylen Brown is banged up as well.  The Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season, which has been the key to them being so competitive of late and covering a bunch of spreads.  They'll cover another tonight.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

20* Mississippi State/Kentucky ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kentucky -6.5

This is one of the best Kentucky teams that John Calipari has had in his tenure in Lexington which is saying a lot.  The Wildcats are 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS this season and have been undervalued.  I love the spot for the Wildcats after getting humbled on the road with an OT loss at Texas A&M.

Now the Wildcats are back home where they are 8-1 this season and outscoring opponents by 21.3 points per game.  They host a Mississippi State team that has only played two true road games all season, and both resulted in upset losses by 8 as 8.5-point favorites at Georgia Tech and by 6 as 3-point favorites at South Carolina.

Kentucky is 8-0 SU in its last eight home meetings with Mississippi State with all eight wins coming by 6 points or more.  Bet Kentucky Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Rhode Island +8.5

The Rhode Island Rams are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating Northeastern by 11 as 2-point home favorites, upsetting St. Joe's by 4 as 5.5-point home dogs, upsetting Davidson by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upsetting UMass by 12 as 2.5-point home dogs.

This run has coincided with getting their best player in David Green (15.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG) eligible and playing.  He has returned for the past four games.  Now he and Jaden House (14.8 PPG) are forming a dynamic tandem.

St. Bonaventure is coming off an upset home loss to Fordham as 10.5-point favorites.  That folled up an 11-point loss at Richmond as 2-point favorites.  The Bonnies have no business being favored by 8.5 over the Rams tonight given how these teams are trending.

St. Bonaventure is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 home games off a home loss.  The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  Bet Rhode Island Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns -4

The Phoenix Suns finally heave the Big 3 of Durant, Booker and Beal healthy and playing at the same time.  They are showing what they are capable of when that's the case in recent weeks.  The Suns are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall including a 127-109 road win over the Lakers two games ago.

The Suns have the next two days off so they will be 'all in' to get a win over the Sacramento Kings tonight.  I question how much the Kings have left in the tank as they will be playing their 5th consecutive road game and coming off an OT loss at Milwaukee at the buzzer on Sunday.  They will be playing their 5th road game in 8 days as well as their 9th game in 15 days overall.

Sacramento is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Kings are 18-34 ATS in their last 52 road games off a close road loss by 3 points or less.  Plays against road underdogs (Sacramento) - off two or more consecutive road losses against an opponent that is off a road win by 10 points or more are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Tuesday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State -15.5

I love the spot for the Colorado State Rams tonight.  They are coming off two consecutive very tough road losses at Utah State and Boise State.  Now they return home focused to get back on track and won't be taking this game lightly against the awful Air Force Falcons.

Colorado State is 8-1 at home this season with wins over the likes of Colorado and New Mexico as well as a neutral court win over Creighton by 22.  The Rams are a legitimate NCAA Tournament contender this season.

Air Force is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  They lost outright as favorites at home to Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado and San Jose State.  They also lost by 26 at home to Utah State, a team that is on Colorado State's level.  They lost by 13 at Nevada as well.  

The spot also favors Colorado State because they have had the last six days off and haven't played since last Tuesday.  So they have had a full week to correct their mistakes and are pissed off.  The Falcons have only two days to get ready for the Rams after losing to San Jose State on Saturday.  Bet Colorado State Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State PK

The Kansas State Wildcats have been very impressive of late going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point 60-59 as 6-point road dogs at Texas Tech.  I look for them to take down Baylor at home tonight.

Baylor has played a home-heavy schedule this season.  They have only played one true road game, and they needed OT to beat Oklahoma State.  That's the same Oklahoma State team that went on to lose by 17 at Texas Tech and by 26 at Iowa State.  Baylor also lost by 24 to Michigan State in a game that was played in Detroit.

Kansas State won both meetings with Baylor last season 97-95 as 7.5-point road dogs and 75-65 as 2-point home dogs.  The Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games after going under the total in their previous game, and 0-6 ATS in their last six road games following two or more consecutive unders.

Kansas State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games following three consecutive conference games.  The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference home games.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana +10.5

We've already seen Purdue suffer both of their losses on the Big Ten highway this season.  They lost 92-88 as 5-point favorites at Northwestern and 88-72 as 7.5-point favorites at Nebraska.  They should not be laying 10.5 points on the road at Indiana tonight.

The Hoosiers are 9-1 SU at home this season with their lone loss coming to Kansas by 4 as 7-point dogs.  They led that game 90% of the way and only lost it in the final minutes.  They beat Minnesota by 12, Ohio State by 6 and Maryland by 12.  Assembly Hall is one of the toughest places to play in the country.

Mike Woodson and the Hoosiers have had Matt Painter and the Boilermakers' number in recent meetings.  Indiana is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Purdue.  They won outright 79-71 as 7-point road dogs, 79-74 as 1.5-point home favorites, only lost by 2 as 10-point road dogs and won by 3 as 4-point home dogs.

Purdue is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road favorite or PK.  The Boilermakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record 15-plus games into the season.  Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. top-level teams that win more than 80% of their games.  The Hoosiers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points pre game.  Bet Indiana Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Wake Forest/NC State OVER 148.5

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons rank 28th in adjusted offense and are scoring 80.9 points per game this season.  They have scored at least 82 points in seven of their last eight games overall with the lone exception being against Virginia, which is a dead nuts under team.

NC State is coming off a 89-83 win at Louisville and has now scored at least 81 points in six of its last 10 games overall.  I think both teams get close to 80 in this one, so this 148.5-point total is way too short.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between NC State and Wake Forest with 164, 156 and 177 combined points.  Wake Forest is 12-1 OVER in its last 13 January games.  NC State is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Thunder/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 236.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 6th in pace and 4th in offensive rating. They have scored at least 119 points in 11 of their last 13 games overall, and 112 points or more in all 13.

The Los Angeles Lakers have allowed 132, 127 and 131 points in their last three games coming in. They are not playing defense since the In-Season Tournament. They can get their points on offense to hang with the Thunder in a shootout though.

That has been the case in recent meetings as the OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 249, 243, 227, 240 and 263 combined points with none of those games going to OT. Those 249 and 243-point totals came in their first two meetings this season. It should be more of the same tonight.

Plays on the OVER on any team (LA Lakers) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games are 23-6 (79.3%) over the last five seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -7.5

The Utah Jazz have been fully healthy for a few weeks now and are showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Jazz are 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall with seven outright wins as underdogs.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect?

They beat the Lakers by 7 on the 2nd of a back-to-back, the Raptors by 32, the Nuggets by 13, the Bucks outright by 16 as 8-point road dogs and the 76ers outright by 11 as 8.5-point road dogs in their last five games coming in. They should be more than 7.5-point favorites over the Indiana Pacers tonight.

This is a terrible spot for the Pacers. They are without their best player in Tyrese Haliburton. They are coming off a 109-117 road loss at Denver on Sunday. Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in altitude. They will also be playing their 7th game in 11 days and their 3rd consecutive road game. This is a tired team to say the least.

Utah is 11-1 ATS in home games when revenging a road loss this season. The Jazz are 14-5 SU & 15-3-1 ATS at home this season. Bet the Jazz Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Raptors OVER 241

The Toronto Raptors are a dead nuts OVER team since trading for RJ Barrett and Emmanuel Quickley of the Knicks.  They are also going more small ball now with the loss of center Jakob Poeltl, which is beneficial to the OVER after adding those two scorers from the Knicks to boot.

The OVER is 8-1 in Raptors last nine games overall with 238 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  They combined for 258 points with the Jazz, 246 with the Clippers, 263 with the Lakers, 251 with the Warriors and 265 with the Kings in their last five games coming in.  It will be more of the same against the Celtics tonight.

Boston just hung 145 points on the Rockets last game and has now scored at least 118 points in 13 of its last 14 games overall. The Celtics rank 3rd in offensive rating this season and will be able to name their number on the Raptors, who have allowed 118 or more points in eight of their last nine games overall. But I think Toronto can keep pace in a shootout.

Toronto is 16-4 OVER after playing a road game this season. The OVER is 10-4 in Celtics last 14 games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Iowa/Minnesota Big Ten No-Brainer on Minnesota -1

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball. They are 12-0 SU & 14-2 ATS this season, including 11-1 SU & 12-0 ATS at home. Their only home loss came when they blew a 20-plus point 2H lead to Missouri in a 2-point defeat. They beat Nebraska and Maryland at home in Big Ten play.

The Iowa Hawkeyes have always had huge home/road splits under Fran McCaffrey. That's the case again this season as the Hawkeyes are terrible on the road. The Hawkeyes are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season, losing by 8 at Creighton, by 19 at Purdue, by 25 at Iowa State and by 11 at Wisconsin.

Minnesota is 10-0 ATS as a favorite this season. The Golden Gophers are 10-1 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season. Bet Minnesota Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The Atlanta Hawks are the most overvalued team in the NBA this season. They are 15-23 SU & 9-29 ATS this season, including 6-11 SU & 3-14 ATS at home. They don't play defense ranking 27th in defensive rating, and their chemistry is terrible right now.

The Hawks are 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They haven't won a game by more than 7 points since December 15th, which was 15 games ago, so they'd be 0-14 ATS in their last 14 games with a line of -7.5. They were just upset by 28 at home by the Wizards as 7-point favorites. They should not be 7.5-point favorites over the Spurs today.

The Spurs are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall taking the Grizzlies, Bucks, Cavs and Bulls to the wire in four losses by 8 points or less. They also crushed the Pistons by 22 and the Hornets by 36. They will have Victor Wembanyama for this game, and they are a pretty good team with him in the lineup.

Atlanta is 0-9 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Hawks are 2-16 ATS as favorites this season. Atlanta is 1-11 ATS vs. teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season. Bet the Spurs Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Phoenix Suns -10.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are playing as poorly as any team in the NBA right now. They are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six losses coming by 21 points or more. That's why I'm willing to lay the -10.5 with the Phoenix Suns tonight.

The Blazers are also in a terrible spot returning home from a 7-game road trip. There is a lot of distractions they will have to deal with back at home, not the least of which is the embarrassment of how poorly they performed on that road trip. The Blazers are also banged up right now which is a big reason for their struggles.

The Phoenix Suns are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when they have Durant, Booker and Beal on the court at the same time. They are coming off an 18-point road win over the Los Angeles Lakers. They are rested and ready to go as they have had the last two days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight.

Portland is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 95 points or less in two consecutive games. The Blazers have been held to 93, 77 and 84 points in their last three games, which is absolutely terrible in today's NBA. Bet the Suns Sunday.

20* Rams/Lions NFC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3.5

The Los Angeles Rams are the most dangerous team in the NFC playoffs that everyone is overlooking.  The Rams got all of their key weapons in Stafford, Kupp, Nacua and Williams healthy for the second half of the season and were dominant once that was the case.  They are actually about the healthiest team in the NFL going into the playoffs, plus they were able to rest starters in Week 18 to be even more fresh and healthy for the wild card round.

The Rams are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to the Baltimore Ravens 37-31 (OT).  They went toe-to-toe with the team that many feel like is the favorite to win the Super Bowl.  All the Ravens did after needing a punt return TD in OT to beat the Rams at home is go on to beat the Jaguars 23-7, the 49ers 38-19 and the Dolphins 56-19 in their next three games.  That loss to the Ravens was mighty impressive, and keep in mind the Ravens beat the Lions 38-6 at home earlier this season.

The Rams are humming on offense.  They have scored 26 or more points in each of the last six games started by Stafford.  Now he gets to face his former team and will light up a terrible Detroit defense that has allowed 20 or more points in eight of their last nine games.  I would argue the Rams have the better offense and better defense going into the playoffs.

Dan Campbell made the mistake of trying too hard to win in Week 18 even though he needed the Cowboys to lose to the Commanders to improve their seeding.  What a mistake it turned out to be as star TE Sam LaPorta was lost to a knee injury in a meaningless win over the Vikings.  LaPorta has 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 TD this season.  The Lions also lost WR/PR Kalif Raymond to injury in the win.  He has 35 receptions for 489 yards and is their main punt returner.  The Lions won't be as fresh as the Rams either after trying hard in Week 18 and needing to go to the wire with the Vikings after going to the wire with the Cowboys the previous week.

Plays against home teams (Detroit) - with a very good offense that averages 385 or more yards per game, after allowing an average of 400 or more yards per game in their last three games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The back door will always be open if we need it against this Detroit defense.  But I don't think we will.  

The Rams are the better team on both sides and catching 3.5 points to boot.  Home field just isn't worth this much for the Lions, either.  And Sean McVay knows Jared Goff's tendencies more than anyone and will come up with the proper game plan to exploit them.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Washington/UCLA Pac-12 No-Brainer on Washington PK

The UCLA Bruins continue to get too much respect for what they did in previous seasons.  But this is a dreadful UCLA team and one of the worst we have seen this century.  The books have failed to catch up to how poor this team really is.

UCLA is 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The two wins came against UC-Riverside by 1 as 17.5-point favorites and Oregon State by 7 as 6.5-point favorites.  They were upset at home by CS-Northridge as 17.5-point favorites, upset at home by Maryland by 9, upset at home by Stanford by 6 and upset by California at home by 9.

The Bruins hit rock bottom last time out with a 90-44 road loss at Utah. The team looked to have quit on head coach Mick Cronin. It's not going to get any easier for the Utes today against an underrated Washington team.

The Huskies have gone 10-6 this season against the 29th-toughest schedule in the country. They rank 40th in adjusted offense and 81st in adjusted defense as a very balanced team. All six of their losses came by 7 points or less, so they are close to being much better than 10-6.

Washington is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Huskies are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread. Washington is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games following two consecutive home games. UCLA is 1-7 ATS in all home games this season. Bet Washington Sunday.

20* Packers/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay +7.5

Jordan Love has played like one of the best QB's in the game down the stretch to get his team into the playoffs.  The Packers have won three consecutive games to close out the season and have all the momentum.  Love has been the biggest reason why with a ridiculous 18-to-1 TD/INT ratio over his final eight games of the season.

The most remarkable part about that is that Love has had different weapons miss time due to injury down the stretch.  But now the Packers are as healthy as they have been from a skill position perspective basically since the beginning of the season.  There's a chance they get Christian Watson back from a hamstring injury as he and Romeo Doubs are the only questionable weapons.

Love will be able to dice up a Dallas defense that is grossly overrated.  The Cowboys haven't been able to stop some of the better offenses they have faced this season.  They gave up 420 yards to the Lions, 375 to the Dolphins, 31 points to the Bills and 35 points to the Seahawks down the stretch.  They also allowed 42 points to the 49ers earlier this season.

Dallas will get its points too, but the Packers are trending upward defensively right now since they have gotten healthy.  Key players like LB De'Vondre Campbell, LB Quay Walker and CB Jaire Alexander have all missed time this season.  But all three are healthy right now and the Packers are fully healthy on defense and showing what they are capable of.  They held the Vikings to 10 points and the Bears to 9 points in their final two games to compliment Love's brilliance on offense.

The Cowboys have all the pressure on them.  They have heard for years how they just cannot win the big game, and they really haven't.  If they do find a way to win this game, it won't be by more than one score.  The Packers have the goods to take the Cowboys to the wire just like the Lions and Seahawks did in recent games at Dallas with the Lions losing by 1 and the Seahawks by 6.  Detroit accumulated 420 total yards on Dallas and Seattle had 35 points and 406 yards.

Green Bay is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games.  The Cowboys are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a win by 28 points or more.  Matt LaFleur is 20-10 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Green Bay.  Mike McCarthy is 6-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record as the coach of Dallas.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* NFC Wild Card TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Cowboys OVER 49.5

The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys are two dead nuts OVER teams.  They both have great quarterbacks and great offenses but suspect defenses.  The books failed to set this total high enough as these teams will easily combine for 50-plus points in this game to cash this OVER 49.5 ticket.

The Cowboys are averaging 37.4 points per game at home this season.  The Packers have scored at least 20 points in seven of their final eight games to close out the season.  The lone game they didn't they scored 17 against the Bears in the finale and deserved better, but they kneeled in scoring position at the end and had 432 total yards against a very good Chicago defense.  Love has an 18-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last eight games and is playing as well as any QB in the league down the stretch.

But the Packers have a suspect defense that allowed 19 or more points in seven consecutive games before holding both the Vikings and Bears below that number to close the season.  But the Vikings started a 4th-string QB and the Bears aren't very good offensively.  They gave up 30 points to the lowly Panthers and 34 to the Bucs the two games prior.  Dallas will get its points in this one.

The Cowboys gave up 420 yards to the Lions, 375 to the Dolphins, 31 points to the Bills and 35 points to the Seahawks down the stretch.  The Packers can have the same kind of success because they are on the same level as those offenses with the way they have been playing of late.  There's a chance Jordan Love has all of his weapons back this week if Christian Watson returns from a hamstring injury, but he has proven he can move the football and score points no matter who is out there.

It will be perfect conditions inside the dome in Arlington for a shootout.  The OVER is 12-1 in the last 13 meetings in Dallas with nine of those seeing 50 or more combined points.  Each of the last four meetings between the Cowboys and Packers have seen 58 or more combined points.  Green Bay is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. NFC opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Lakers/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah ML +105

The Utah Jazz have been fully healthy for a few weeks now and are showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Jazz are 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall with seven outright wins as underdogs.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect?

I know the Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but not all back-to-backs are created equal. They blew out the Raptors 145-113 last night so they were able to rest their starters in the 4th quarter. They will be plenty fresh and motivated when they host the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. They sit at 20-20 this season with a chance to get back above .500.

The Lakers have been grossly overvalued since winning the In-Season Tournament. They are 5-11 SU & 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall. They have six players on the injury report including questionable tags for LeBron, D'Angelo Russell and Cam Reddish heading into this one. They should not be favored on the road over a Jazz team playing as well as anyone right now.

Utah is 10-1 ATS in home games off an ATS win this season.  The Jazz are 10-1 ATS in home games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 46% shooting or worse this season.  Utah is 10-1 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season. Bet the Jazz Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +13.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a massive letdown spot today. They are coming off a 57-53 upset home win over No. 2 Houston. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Oklahoma State, and that will make it difficult for them to cover this inflated 13.5-point spread.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cowboys off consecutive losses to Baylor and Texas Tech. This is an Oklahoma State team that just has Iowa State's number. The Cowboys are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Cyclones including two upset road wins by 8 as 6.5-point dogs and by 17 as 4-point dogs.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (Iowa State) - a hot team having covered 6 or 7 or their last 8 games ATS who are also winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 91-50 (64.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. It's time to 'sell high' on the Cyclones. Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* Dolphins/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the healthiest teams coming into the playoffs.  It helped that they rested their starters in Week 18 to essentially get a bye week.  And we all know how good Andy Reid is coming off a bye week.  The Chiefs will respond in a big way, and we will see them put their best foot forward in the Wild Card Round after an up and down season to this point after winning the Super Bow last year.  The Super Bowl hangover was part of it, but they have just been biding their time waiting for the postseason.

The Miami Dolphins are the most injury-ravaged team in the playoffs aside from perhaps the Steelers.  RB Raheem Mostert, RB De'Von Achane, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Tyreek Hill, LT Terron Armstead and C Liam Eichenberg are all battling injuries on offense, and they were already without starting C Connor Williams.  The defense lost its two best pass rushers in Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips.  Now their two backup LB's in Andrew Van Ginkel and Jerome Baker suffered season-ending injuries against the Bills in Week 18.  Not to mention, all four starters in the secondary are questionable.  What a mess.

These injuries have played a part in their meltdown to close out the regular season losing by a combined 77-33 to Baltimore and Buffalo.  They gave up 491 total yards to the Ravens and 473 total yards to the Bills.  Now this previously stagnant Chiefs offense is in line for one of its best performances of the season against this soft Miami defense.

Speaking of soft, the Dolphins won't enjoy the weather in Kansas City Saturday night.  It will be single-digit temperatures with negative wind chills and 15-20 MPH winds with gusts up to 30 MPH.  I love fading warm weather teams in cold weather games, especially in the playoffs.  Tua Tagovailoa is 0-4 SU in his career in games with freezing temperatures or below.  He has never played in conditions as cold as they will be in Kansas City Saturday night.

The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 400 or more yards per game in their last three games coming in.  Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 60-75%.  Miami is 0-9 SU & 2-7 ATS since 2017 in cold weather games with temps below 40 degrees.  None of them were as cold as it will be Saturday night.

Miami went to the wire with Buffalo on Sunday Night Football last week while playing all their starters and trying to win the division.  That effort will have taken a lot out of them, and the schedule makers did them no favors making them play on Saturday on a short week.  The injuries, the tough scheduling spot and the cold weather are going to have the Dolphins falling flat on their faces for a 3rd consecutive week.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -6.5

The Baylor Bears have moved their home games to Foster Pavilion where it's like a small school atmosphere with fans right down on the court and a much more hostile atmosphere for road teams. The Bears have been impressive in their first two games here beating Cornell 98-79 as 16-point favorites and BYU 81-72 as 4.5-point favorites.

Now they host a Cincinnati team that is coming off two huge games against BYU and Texas. I don't think the Bearcats will have much left in the tank here for Baylor. This will be their toughest road game this season. They needed OT to beat Howard on the road and lost by 5 at Xavier. They also lost by 14 to Dayton on a neutral, and this team just isn't very good away from home.

Baylor is 11-3 ATS in all games this season. The Bears are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season. Cincinnati is 27-50 ATS in its last 77 games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game. Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks -7

The Memphis Grizzlies cannot catch a break. They were playing well when JA Morant and Marcus Smart were back. But now Morant is out for the season, and Smart is out at least six weeks. They were already without Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke and Derrick Rose.

Now the Grizzlies have Santi Aldama questionable and Desmond Bane just left last night's game with an ankle injury and did not return. I can't imagine Bane will be back for this 2nd of a back-to-back. The Grizzlies are just so short-handed right now.

The Knicks are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS since trading for OG Anunoby from the Raptors. That includes a 128-92 road win at Philadelphia as 5.5-point dogs as four of those five wins have come by 16 points or more. I expect them to crush the short-handed Grizzlies tonight.

New York is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a road favorite. Memphis is 4-13 ATS in home games this season. The Knicks are 12-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season. The Grizzlies are 1-9 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season. Bet the Knicks Saturday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois +3

The Drake Bulldogs are coming off a massive 89-78 home win over Indiana State. It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs now as they are road favorites at Southern Illinois when they shouldn't be favored at all.

Drake has been very disappointing in its last two road games. The Bulldogs lost outright as 5.5-point favorites at UAB. Then they lost outright by 22 as 5.5-point favorites at Belmont.

Now they must take on a Southern Illinois team that has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the MVC. The Salukis are 9-1 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season. They beat Belmont by 10, Illinois-Chicago by 12, St. Louis by 39 and also upset Oklahoma State at home.

Drake is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off a home win where they scored 85 points or more. Bet Southern Illinois Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +8

The Atlanta Hawks have been grossly overvalued all season. They are 15-22 SU & 9-28 ATS in their 37 games and consistently getting too much respect from oddsmakers. That is the case again tonight as 8-point favorites over Washington.

This is as terrible spot for the Hawks. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 126-108 home loss to the Pacers last night. It will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Hawks after going to OT against the 76ers the game prior. They won't have much left in the tank for the Wizards tonight.

The Wizards have played their best basketball on the road this season going 12-8-1 ATS in their 21 road games. They are rested and ready to go tonight after having the last two days off. They are also fully healthy.

Atlanta is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite this season. Washington is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 road games following six or more consecutive losses. The Wizards are 7-0 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season. Bet the Wizards Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on TCU +5.5

The TCU Horned Frogs are 8-0 at home this season and coming off a 80-71 win over Oklahoma. That followed up a near upset of Kansas on the road by 2 as 9-point dogs. This Horned Frogs team is better than they get credit for.

They should not be catching 5.5 points at home to Houston. The Cougars have not fared that well on the road this season. They were just upset 57-53 at Iowa State as 2.5-point favorites. They only beat Xavier by 6 as 8.5-point favorites in their previous true road game. They are going to find it tough winning on the Big 12 highway this season.

TCU is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.

Plays on home underdogs or PK (TCU) - a very good shooting team making 48% of their shots or better, while also a dominant rebounding team outrebounding their opponents by 7-plus boards per game are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet TCU Saturday.

25* AFC Wild Card TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Browns/Texans OVER 43

The Cleveland Browns are a dead nuts OVER team with Joe Flacco.  They are a dead nuts OVER team on the road as well.  This total of 43 is too short when you factor in Flacco, Cleveland being on the road and the healthy return of CJ Stroud for Houston.

The Browns are 8-0 OVER on the road this season.  A big reason for that is their defense has been very leaky on the highway.  The Browns allow 29.6 points per game on the road this season, and their road games are averaging 54.0 combined points per game.

The Browns have become very pass-happy with Flacco at QB.  They have attempted 44 or more passes in four of his five starts this season.  The only exception was in the 37-20 win over the Jets in which they were just trying to protect the lead late and ran it more.  They have scored 31 or more points in three of Flacco's last four starts with the lone exception being against a very good Chicago defense at home in tough whether conditions when they only scored 20.

The Texans are humming on offense again with Stroud back healthy.  They scored 26 points against the Titans two weeks ago and 23 against the Colts last week to clinch the AFC South title.  I have no doubt the Texans are going to unleash him against the Browns and use the entire playbook to try and pull off the upset.  This game will be played mostly through the air due to both teams being good against the run, knowing that the weakness of both defenses are more against the pass.

Cleveland played Houston on the road earlier this season on December 24th and 2on 36-22 for 58 combined points.  And that was with Case Keenum at QB for the Texans and Davis Mills replacing him.  The Browns had 364 passing yards in that game and did whatever they wanted to through the air.  They will be able to deploy that same game plan, but this time they will get more resistance from Houston's offense with Stroud under center.  Plus, there's a decent chance Stroud gets a pair of weapons back in WR Noah Brown and WR Robert Woods from injury that they didn't have against Indianapolis.  This game has shootout written all over it inside the dome in perfect conditions in Houston.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico -2.5

New Mexico has one of the best home-court advantages in the country inside 'The Pit'. The Lobos are 8-0 at home this season and will take down the San Diego State Aztecs today.

San Diego State is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 road games this season. The Aztecs only beat San Jose State by 3 as 10-point favorites, lost outright at Grand Canyon by 6 as 2.5-point favorites and only beat UCSD by 1 as 13.5-point favorites. This will be their toughest road test of the season today. Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Raptors/Jazz OVER 235.5

The Toronto Raptors are a dead nuts OVER team since trading for RJ Barrett and Emmanuel Quickley of the Knicks.  They are also going more small ball now with the loss of center Jakob Poeltl, which is beneficial to the OVER after adding those two scorers from the Knicks to boot.

The OVER is 7-1 in Raptors last eight games overall with 238 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  They combined for 246 points with the Clippers, 263 with the Lakers, 251 with the Warriors and 265 with the Kings in their last four games coming in.  It will be more of the same against the Jazz tonight.

The Jazz are fully healthy right now and are an elite offensive team when that's the case. They have scored 120 or more points in five of their last six games overall. The Raptors have allowed 118 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.

Utah is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 home games after three straight games outrebounding opponents by 5 boards or more. Toronto is 8-1 OVER off a loss by 6 points or less this season. The Raptors are 15-4 OVER after playing a road game this season. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Raptors and Jazz with 238 or more combined points in each of the last three. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Utah Jazz -3

The Utah Jazz have been fully healthy for a few weeks now and are showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Jazz are 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with seven outright wins as underdogs.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect?

We'll gladly take advantage again tonight and back the Jazz as short home favorites over the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are without starting C Jacob Poeltl and their best player in Pascal Siakam is questionable. The Raptors are playing well also, but this is a tough spot for them.

The Raptors will be playing their 6th road game in 10 days here. They just played the Lakers and Clippers in Los Angeles in back-to-back days. They won't have much left in the tank for the Jazz, and they will also be playing in altitude in Salt Lake City tonight to make matters worse.

Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games off an ATS win this season. The Jazz are 9-1 ATS in home games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 46% shooting or worse this season. Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls -3

The Chicago Bulls are fully healthy and playing well right now. They have won three consecutive games coming in and I expect them to take down the short-handed Golden State Warriors tonight.

The Warriors are without four key players right now in Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, Chris Paul and Moses Moody. They are 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall. Their last two games were particularly concerning as they were upset by the Raptors by 15 at home and blasted by the Pelicans by 36 at home.

Golden State is 2-11 ATS after losing two of its last three games this season. Chicago is 42-25 ATS in its last 67 games as home favorites. Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -8

I like the spot for the Utah Utes tonight. They return home after two disappointing road losses to Arizona State and Arizona. Now the Utes are back home where they are 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS and outscoring opponents by 19.1 points per game.

The Utes take a step down in class against a UCLA team that continues to get too much respect for what they did in previous season. But this is a dreadful UCLA team and one of the worst we have seen this century. The books have failed to catch up to how poor this team really is.

UCLA is 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall. The two wins came against UC-Riverside by 1 as 17.5-point favorites and Oregon State by 7 as 6.5-point favorites. They were upset at home by CS-Northridge as 17.5-point favorites, upset at home by Maryland by 9, upset at home by Stanford by 6 and upset by California at home by 9. They will lose by double-digits to the Utes tonight. Bet Utah Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -4.5

The Dallas Mavericks are without Luka Doncic, Dante Exum and Derrick Lively II tonight. Grant Williams is questionable as well. I don't give them much of a shot of even keeping this game competitive against the New York Knicks tonight without Doncic.

The Knicks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS since trading for OG Anunoby of the Raptors. They have won all five games by 6 points or more with four of those wins coming by 16 points or more. They have been absolutely dominant, and they are allowing just 97.4 points per game during this winning streak, which is unheard of in today's NBA. Bet the Knicks Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Thunder OVER 233

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 232 or more combined points in 10 of those 11 games, 235 or more nine times and 248 or more seven of those.  This total of 233 is too short for a game involving the Thunder right now.

The Portland Trail Blazers are more of an OVER team when Anfernee Simons is healthy. He is one of the best young guards in the game. But the Blazers have allowed 126 or more points in four of their last six games and are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Raptors/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 235.5

The Toronto Raptors are a dead nuts OVER team since trading for RJ Barrett and Emmanuel Quickley of the Knicks.  They are also going more small ball now with the loss of center Jakob Poeltl, which is beneficial to the OVER after adding those two scorers from the Knicks to boot.

The OVER is 6-1 in Raptors last seven games overall with 238 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They combined for 263 points with the Lakers, 251 with the Warriors and 265 with the Kings in their last three games coming in.  It will be more of the same against the Clippers tonight.

The Clippers have scored 117 or more points in four of their last six games overall.  They put up 117 on Memphis, 121 on Miami, 131 on Phoenix and 138 on Phoenix.  They will hang a big number on the Raptors to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  But the Raptors have scored at least 116 points in nine consecutive games and will get theirs as well.  They have scored 124-plus in five of their last six.

Toronto is 14-4 OVER off a road game this season.  The Clippers are 16-5 OVER in their last 21 games off a home win by 10 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Washington State/USC OVER 146

The USC Trojans are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-3 OVER in all games this season and 6-1 OVER at home.  The Trojans have some of the best talent in the entire country offensively, but they play very little defense.

We have really seen that play out over the past couple months with the OVER 9-1 in USC's last 10 games overall.  USC and their opponents have combined for 156 or more points in seven of their last nine games overall.  So this 146-point total is very low for a game involving USC.

The Trojans will control the tempo playing at home and will force Washington State to run with them.  Washington State just played a 89-84 shootout with Oregon last time out in a game that saw 173 combined points.  Oregon has a similar profile to USC.

USC is 8-1 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  USC and Washington State combined for 150 and 152 points in their two meetings last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Jazz ESPN No-Brainer on Utah +7

The Utah Jazz have been fully healthy for a few weeks now and are showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Jazz are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with six outright wins as underdogs.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect?

We'll gladly take advantage again tonight and back the Jazz catching 7 points at home to the Denver Nuggets.  The highlights during this run include an upset home win over the Heat by 8, an upset home win over the Mavericks by 27, an upset road win at Philadelphia by 11 and an upset road win at Milwaukee by 16.  The Jazz will have no problem getting motivated to face the defending champs tonight.

The Nuggets have benefited from a home-heavy, soft schedule here of late with six of their last even games at home.  Their lone road game during this stretch was a 3-point win at Golden State at the buzzer.  The road games prior were all single-digit wins over the Hornets, Nets, Raptors, Bulls and Hawks.  The Nuggets have just one road win all season by double-digits.  They are 11-8 SU but 7-12 ATS on the highway this season.

Utah is 11-5 SU & 12-3-1 ATS at home this season.  The Jazz are 51-26 ATS in their last 77 games as underdogs, including 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs.  Utah is 11-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.  The Jazz are 9-1 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season.  Utah is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Warriors OVER 233.5

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  They are without their two best defenders in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II.  They are also without Chris Paul, who slows down the tempo on offense when he's in there.  So him being out benefits the OVER.

The OVER is 4-1 in Warriors last five games overall with 236 or more combined points in four of those five games.  This total is too short considering the opponent in the Pelicans, who have scored 117 or more points in seven of their last eight road games, including 133 against the Kings last time out.

New Orleans is 13-5 OVER in its last 18 games following an UNDER.  The Warriors are 26-13 OVER in their last 39 games with a line of +3 to -3.  Golden State is 16-4 OVER following an ATS loss this season.  The Warriors are 9-1 OVER vs. a marginal winning team (51-60%) this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Pelicans/Warriors ABC ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +1

The Golden State Warriors are broken right now without Draymond Green, Gary Payton II and Chris Paul.  There is just too much on Steph Curry's shoulders.  The Warriors are 2-5 SU in their last seven games overall with their two wins both coming at home over the Magic by 6 and the Pistons by 4.  They are coming off a 15-point home loss to the Raptors, and also lost by 12 at home to Miami and by 10 at home to Dallas.

The Pelicans are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  They beat the Kings by 33, the Timberwolves by 11, the Cavaliers by 19, the Spurs by 36, the Hornets by 5, the Wizards by 20 and the Kings by 10 with six of those seven wins by double-digits.  They are rolling on the road right now and should not be underdogs to the Warriors tonight.

Golden State is 6-14 ATS in home games this season.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State +2.5

Wrong team favored here.  Indiana State is the best team in the MVC this season and will prove it once again tonight.  The Sycamores are 13-2 SU & 9-5 ATS this season.  Their two losses came on the road at Alabama and on the road at Michigan State.  But they beat Bradley 85-77 on the road, and many expect Bradley to compete for a conference title alongside Drake.

Drake is 12-3 against a very soft schedule that ranks 265th in the country, about 110 spots easier than the slate Indiana State has faced.  The Bulldogs are coming off a 22-point loss at Belmont despite being 5.5-point favorites.  They also lost were also upset at UAB three games ago, and that's a UAB team that is way down this season.  They lost by 24 on a neutral to Stephen F. Austin earlier this season as well.  This team is way overrrated.

Indiana State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games off a conference win by 10 points or more.  The Sycamores are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Heat OVER 233

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 232 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games, 235 or more eight times and 249 or more six of those.  This total of 233 is too short for a game involving the Thunder right now.

The Miami Heat have been more of an under team of late but a lot of that has to do with who they have played against.  They did just combine for 233 points with the Rockets with a 220-point total in their last game.  The Thunder will speed them up and make them play faster, and the Heat lose a lot defensively with the injuries they have right now.

The OVER is 5-1 in Heat last six home games.  Oklahoma City is 14-6 OVER with a total of 230 or higher this season.  The OVER is 15-4 in Thunder last 19 games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on San Antonio Spurs -3.5

The San Antonio Spurs are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall playing Memphis (lost by 8), Milwaukee (lost by 4) and Cleveland (lost by 2) all tough and down to the wire.  They haven't been rewarded with victories for their solid play, but they will be rewarded tonight with a blowout victory over the lowly Detroit Pistons.

The spot really favors the Spurs tonight.  They come in on two days' rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Meanwhile, the Pistons will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 10 days.  The blew a 22-point home lead to the Kings last night and wound up losing by 21 points.

The Pistons were playing more competitive basketball of late but then lost their best player in Cade Cunningham to injury.  They were blown out in the 2nd half by the Nuggets in a 17-point loss after losing Cunningham in the 1H the game prior.  They just don't stand much of a chance of being competitive without him.

Detroit is 3-11 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Pistons are 4-12 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +7.5

The Indiana Pacers are in a terrible spot tonight.  They just played two consecutive games against the Boston Celtics at home.  After losing the first meeting, they got their revenge in the rematch with a 133-131 victory.  Now they are primed for a big letdown here against the Washington Wizards.

The cost of that victory was a big one, too.  They lost their best player in Tyrese Haliburton to a hamstring injury that is going to sideline him for at least two weeks.  Haliburton was having a MVP-caliber season averaging 23.6 points per game and 12.5 assists per game while shooting 40% from 3, 50% from the floor and 87% from the FT line.  The Pacers go as Haliburton goes.

They should not be 7.5-point favorites over the Wizards tonight without him.  The Wizards have played their best basketball on the road this season going 12-8 ATS on the highway.  They just beat the Pacers 137-123 as 8.5-point home dogs in their last meeting even with Haliburton.  They will hang tough tonight and possibly pull off the upset again.

Washington is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games off a non-conference game.  The Wizards are 91-58 ATS in their last 159 games off five or more consecutive losses.  Washington is 7-0 ATS n road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season.  This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Wizards.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson/Virginia Tech UNDER 145

Both Clemson and Virginia Tech will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  Clemson is coming off two consecutive losses and Virginia Tech is off two consecutive losses as well.  So we know both teams will be going all out defensively to try and avoid a 3-game skid.

This total is too high when you look at the profiles of these two teams.  Clemson ranks 245th in adjusted tempo and 52nd in adjusted defense.  Virginia Tech ranks 201st in adjusted tempo and 64th in adjusted defense.  So both teams play at below-average paces, and both are among the better defensive teams in the country.

When you look at head-to-head history, this total is too high as well.  Clemson and Virginia Tech played twice last season and combined for 133 points in their first meeting and just 101 points in their 2nd meeting.  In fact, Clemson and Virginia Tech have combined for 133 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 141 or less at the end of regulation in 10 consecutive meetings, making for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 145-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John's -7

It was always going to take some time for Rick Pitino to get the St. John's Red Storm gelling in his first season as head coach.  Well, the time is now as they are playing their best basketball of the season.

St. John's is 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall and has been grossly undervalued.  The Red Storm have impressive wins over Utah by 9, Xavier by 15, Butler by 16 and Villanova by 10 during this stretch.  They also had an impressive road loss by 4 as 11-point dogs at UConn to show what they are really capable of.

Now the Red Storm host a Providence team that just lost second-leading scorer and leading rebounder Bryce Hopkins (15.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG) two games ago to a season-ending injury.  The Friars were upset at home by Seton Hall as 6-point favorites in the game they lost Hopkins.  They also lost by 9 at Creighton in their first full game without him over the weekend.  I expect them to lose by 8-plus on the road tonight to the Red Storm as well.

St. John's is 7-0 ATS after winning three of its last four games this season.  The Red Storm are 7-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or lower this season.  Bet St. John's Wednesday.

20* Raptors/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto +5

The Toronto Raptors have been playing very well since trading for RJ Barrett and Emmanuel Quickley.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their four games since the trade with their only loss coming at Sacramento by 5 as 4.5-point dogs after the Kings made two free throws with almost no time left.

They beat the Cavaliers at home, upset the Grizzlies on the road and upset the Warriors by 15 on the road.  The Raptors have now scored 124 or more points in four of their last five games as their offensive efficiency is through the roof.

This is a great spot to fade the Lakers.  They are coming off an upset home win over the Clippers last time out, and now they have another huge game against the Phoenix Suns on deck Thursday.  That makes this the ultimate sandwich spot for them and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Raptors as they were to beat the Clippers, or as they will be to beat the Suns.

The Lakers have been grossly overvalued for a month now.  They are 4-10 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They should not be 5-point favorites over the Raptors tonight with the way these teams are trending.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers -2.5

I love the spot for Rutgers tonight.  The Scarlet Knights will be highly motivated for a victory coming off two consecutive road losses to open Big Ten play by 4 at Ohio State and by 9 at Iowa.  They have one of the biggest home-court advantages in the Big Ten and are 7-1 SU at home this season.

The Indiana Hoosiers will be playing just their 3rd true road game of the season.  They did pull the upset at Michigan by 3, but we are quickly seeing how Michigan is a very flawed team going just 3-9 SU in their last 12 games overall with losses to McNeese State and Long Beach State.  That win doesn't look that impressive now.  In their other road game, they lost 86-70 at Nebraska as 4.5-point dogs.

Rutgers simply owns Indiana, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with their lone loss coming by 6 on the road.  They beat Indiana 63-48, 74-63, 59-50 and 66-58 in going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Hoosiers.

Indiana is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog of 6 points or less or PK.  Rutgers is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better.  Bet Rutgers Tuesday.

20* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Iowa State ML +125

The Houston Cougars are 14-0 this season.  They have once again benefited from playing the 171st-ranked schedule in the country, plus a home-heavy schedule in the non-conference at that.  But now they must face their stiffest test of the season on the road against a Big 12 opponent in the Iowa State Cyclones.

Houston has only played one true road game this season and struggled in a 66-60 win as 8.5-point favorites at Xavier.  The Cougars aren't used to having to play in hostile road atmospheres after previously playing in the American Athletic.  The Big 12 highway is a different animal, especially at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, IA.

Iowa State is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season.  The Cyclones are outscoring opponents by a whopping 38.1 points per game at home.  We don't need the points tonight.  Bet Iowa State on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +10

The Utah Jazz are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are as healthy as they have been all season, which is a big reason they are playing so well right now.  They should not be catching double-digits on the road to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.

The Bucks will be without Damian Lillard and Cameron Payne tonight, so they will be short-handed.  The Jazz can shift their focus to just trying to stop Giannis now.  The Bucks are a dangerous team when both of those guys are healthy, but they are closer to an average team without one of Lillard or Giannis.  Milwaukee is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.

Utah is 50-26 ATS in its last 76 games as an underdog.  The Jazz are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after playing two consecutive road games.  They are coming off a 120-109 upset win at Philadelphia as 8.5-point dogs, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them upset the Bucks tonight.  Bet the Jazz Monday.

20* Washington/Michigan CFP Championship No-Brainer on Washington +5

The Washington Huskies have been doubted all season.  They got off to a blistering start, but then had a lull in their schedule where they were lacking motivation against inferior teams.  But they handled their business and won the games as they needed to.  They simply played to the level of their competition at times.

But when they stepped up in class, they also exceeded expectations.  They beat Oregon at home, upset Oregon State on the road and upset Oregon as double-digit underdogs in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  They outgained Oregon 483 to 353 for the game, or by 130 total yards.  They honestly should have won by more.

The Huskies had some key players banged up and playing through injury at the end of the season.  QB Michael Penix Jr. had a broken rib late in the year, RB Dillon Johnson was playing through injury and WR Jalen McMillan was also playing through injury.  The month break allowed these players to get healthy as well as several other players healthy on defense.  Now the Huskies should be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.

It paid off in a 37-31 win over Texas in the Sugar Bowl.  That final score doesn't really show how dominant the Huskies really were over the Longhorns.  They just managed to make it interesting late.  The Huskies racked up 532 total yards in the win.  Washington's offensive line, which won the Joe Moore Award for the nation's top offensive line, was the key to victory.  They held a previously dominant Texas defensive line in check and gave Michael Penix Jr. plenty of time to find his 3 NFL receivers and others.  Penix Jr. finished 29-of-38 for 430 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  He is the best QB in the country and now he is showing it on the national stage.  And I trust this Washington offensive line to keep him clean against Michigan's fearsome front.

I know RB Dillon Johnson got hurt at the end of that game against Texas and will try to play through the pain, which isn't ideal.  However, Washington knows its best game plan is to throw the ball as many times as possible against this Michigan defense.  Michigan's defense is similar to Texas in that they are tough to run on, but they haven't been tested through the air much at all this season thanks to a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  The best QB's they faced were McCord of Ohio State, Tagovailoa of Maryland, Allar of Penn State and Milroe of Alabama.  

None of those four QB's can sling it like Penix Jr. can with precision accuracy.  And Michigan hasn't faced a trio of receivers like they will be up against in this one.  I like the fact that Michigan only gets one week to prepare for Washington's high-octane offense.  That's not enough time.  I trust Kalen DeBoer over Jim Harbaugh to make the right adjustments in this short amount of time.

Washington's defense is the most underrated unit of the entire college football playoff.  They are a bend but don't break bunch.  They do give up yards, but they are one of the best red zone defenses in the country.  They will stack the box to stop the run and try and make JJ McCarthy try and beat them through the air.  Washington's cornerbacks are certainly a strength with their tremendous ball skills, and McCarthy won't be able to beat them often.

Michigan was lucky to beat Alabama needing a late TD to force OT and then winning in OT.  Well, Texas beat Alabama by 10 on the road, and Washington just dominated Texas.  Also, the Wolverines benefited from playing on a slick grass field in the Rose Bowl to help counter Alabama's speed.  They won't have that same luxury against Washington with this game being played inside the dome at NRG Stadium in Houston.  Washington's speed on the fast track will be a huge advantage for them.  This is an ACC officiating crew, and they called pass interference at a higher rate than any other officiating crew in the country.  That will certainly benefit Washington's pass-happy attack.

Washington is 21-0 SU in its last 21 games overall including 10-0 vs AP Top 10 teams during this span.  DeBoer is 8-1 ATS as a head coach as an underdog, including 7 outright victories of those nine.  DeBoer is 11-1 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Bet Washington in the CFP Championship Game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Wizards OVER 244.5

The OVER is 7-2 in Thunder last nine games overall.  They have combined for 249 or more points with their opponents in five of those nine games, so getting over 244.5 tonight isn't asking too much when you consider their opponent.

The Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They face a Thunder team that ranks 6th in pace and 4th in offensive rating.  The Thunder have scored at least 115 points in 14 consecutive games now.  The Wizards allow 126.1 points per game this season.

Washington is 14-4 OVER in its last 18 non-conference home games.  The Wizards are 12-4 OVER vs. good offensive teams that score 116-plus points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Warriors OVER 236.5

The Toronto Raptors have become a dead nuts OVER team since trading away their best defender in OG Anunoby to the Knicks and bringing in two scorers and poor defenders in RJ Barrett and Emmanuel Quickley.  The OVER is 4-1 in Raptors last five games overall with 238 or more combined points in four of those five games.  They have now gone for at least 232 combined points in seven of their last eight games overall as well.

The Golden State Warriors are without their two best defenders right now in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II.  They also just lost Chris Paul to injury, and it's actually a good thing for Golden State OVERS to be without Paul because he doesn't push the tempo as much as they will without him.  The OVER is 3-1 in Warriors last four games overall with 252, 236 and 257 combined points in the three OVERS.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Raptors and Warriors with 246 and 236 combined points in their last two meetings.  Toronto is 12-4 OVER after playing a road game this season.  Golden State is 15-4 OVER following an ATS loss this season.  The Warriors are 25-13 OVER in their last 38 games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +16.5

The Detroit Pistons have gotten healthy and have been much more competitive of late as a result.  Their 28-game losing streak has had them undervalued for a few weeks now.  The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 4 at Golden State, by 6 at Utah in OT, by 6 in Boston in OT and upset the Raptors. during this stretch.

Now I expect the Pistons to give the defending champion Nuggets a run for their money tonight.  The Nuggets have been overvalued due to winning the title last year.  They are kind of just going through the motions right now and won't be motivated at all to get margin on the Pistons.

The Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost outright to the Thunder by 26 as 1.5-point favorites at home and outright to the Magic as 9.5-point home favorites during this stretch.

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (Denver) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against an opponent that went over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 27-3 (90%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pistons/Nuggets OVER 235

The Detroit Pistons have gotten healthy and are playing much more competitive basketball of late because of it.  The improvements have come on offense with the addition of sharp shooter Bojan Bogdanovic to the lineup.  The Pistons have scored at least 109 points in 10 consecutive games.  But they still rank 27th in defensive rating.

The Nuggets rank 7th in offensive rating and will get theirs.  But they have been soft defensively of late allowing 127 points to the Warriors and 122 to the Magic in their last two games, which went well OVER the total with 257 and 242 combined points, respectively.

The Pistons and their opponents have combined for at least 249 points in four of their last five games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pistons last seven games overall.  Detroit is 13-3 OVER vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% of their shots or better this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawks/Magic OVER 238

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace, 6th in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 20-12 in all Atlanta games this season.  The OVER is 3-0 in their last three games combining for 256 points with Washington, 279 with Oklahoma City and 266 with Indiana.

The OVER is 3-0 in Magic last three games overall combining for 236 points with Golden State, 273 with Sacramento and 242 with Denver.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Hawks and Magic with 239, 251, 259 and 233 combined points.

Orlando is 9-1 OVER after covering five or six of its last seven games this season.  Atlanta is 8-1 OVER after losing five or six of its last seven games this season.  The Magic are 17-5 OVER in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Kings OVER 235.5

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team when playing at home.  They are 13-6 OVER in all home games this season where they are scoring 122.4 points per game and allowing 120.7 points per game.  They control the tempo when playing at home and like to push the pace.

Sacramento's last two home games saw 265 combined points with the Raptors and 273 combined points with the Magic.  Now they host a New Orleans Pelicans team that won't mind getting up and down with them at all.  This total is suppressed because the Pelicans shot terrible against the Clippers last game at 35.9%, keeping  this total lower than it should be.

The OVER is 6-1 in Pelicans last seven road games where they have scored at least 117 points in six of those seven games.  That includes their 127-117 win in Sacramento on December 4th that saw 244 combined points.  It should be more of the same here in this rematch.

Sacramento is 15-4 OVER in its last 19 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota -1

What more does Minnesota have to do to get some respect?  The Golden Gophers are 11-3 SU & 13-1 ATS this season.  I'll keep backing them as long as the books are going to keep setting bad lines on them.  They should be more than 1-point home favorites over the Maryland Terrapins tonight.

Minnesota is 10-1 SU & 11-0 ATS at home this season.  Their lone loss came after blowing a 20-plus point lead to Missouri in the 2H to lose by 2.  They host a Maryland team that is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS on the road this season with their lone win coming at lowly UCLA, which is getting upset by everything this season and is way down.  Maryland lost by 57-40 at Villanova as 6.5-point dogs and 65-53 at Indiana as 2-point dogs.

Minnesota is 9-0 ATS as a favorite this season.  Bet Minnesota Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Seahawks/Cardinals OVER 47.5

The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks have two of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  The Cardinals allow 27.1 points per game and 357.5 yards per game including 31.0 points per game and 374.3 yards per game at home.  The Seahawks allow 365.4 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play on the season, and they are coming off a really poor performance against the Steelers.

Indeed, the Seahawks allowed 30 points and 468 total yards to the Steelers last week.  They gave up 202 rushing yards and have now allowed 136 or more rushing yards in six consecutive games.  That's bad news for their defense going up against an Arizona offense that rushed for 234 yards against the 49ers and 221 yards on the Eagles in two of their last three games.

Arizona just lit up Philadelphia's defense for 35 points and 449 total yards last week.  They will do what they want against this soft Seattle defense.  Seattle's offense put up 23 points and 369 yards on the Steelers last week.  They will be able to do whatever they want for the most part against this Arizona defense as well.  Arizona has allowed 406 or more yards in four of their last six games.

Arizona is a perfect 7-0 OVER at home this season.  Six of those seven games have seen 48 or more combined points.  Arizona home games are seeing an average of 55.0 combined points per game.  The conditions are perfect inside their dome which is a big reason for this.  So this total of 47.5 has been set too low for this matchup between two capable offenses and two dreadful defenses indoors.  

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in Arizona with 52, 68 and 71 combined points in those three.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona Cardinals +3

The Arizona Cardinals likely put an end to Philadelphia's chances of winning the NFC East last week.  Now they have their sights set on their division rivals in the Seattle Seahawks.  They have a chance to end their season with an upset win this week.  Eliminated teams facing must-win teams are 100-64-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the season since 1990.

I think the wrong team is favored here.  Arizona beat Philadelphia 35-31 last week and should have won by more.  They gained 449 yards on the Eagles and held them to just 275 yards, outgaining them by 174 yards.  They also outgained the 49ers three weeks ago, and those are two of the best teams in the NFL.

The Seattle Seahawks are a mess.  They are 2-5 SU in their last seven games overall with both wins coming on last-second scores by 3 over the Eagles at home and by 3 over the Titans on the road.  They should not be laying 3 on the road to the Cardinals today.  The Seahawks gave up 30 points and 468 total yards to the Steelers last week.  Their defense is absolutely broken, and now they must try and defend this Arizona high-octane attack.

The Seahawks are without two starters on the offensive line in T Abraham Lucas and G Phil Haynes. T Jason Peters is questionable.  Defensively, they will be without DE Mario Edwards Jr., plus both NT Jarran Reed and LB Jordyn Brooks are questionable.  The Seahawks allowed 202 rushing yards to the Steelers last week and have now allowed 136 or more rushing yards in six consecutive games.  That's bad news going up against James Connor and the Cardinals, who rushed for 221 yards on the Eagles and 234 yards on the 49ers.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following a non-conference game.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* Eagles/Giants NFC East ANNIHILATOR on New York +5

The New York Giants want revenge from a 33-25 loss in Philadelphia two weeks ago.  The main reason that game was close is because the Giants replaced an ineffective Tommy DeVito with Tyrod Taylor at halftime.  Taylor threw for 133 yards and a score with a pick while also rushing for 21 yards on two carries as the Giants outscored the Eagles 22-13 with him in the lineup.

Taylor nearly led the Giants to an upset victory over the Los Angeles Rams last week.  They failed on a 2-point conversion going for the win in a 26-25 loss, and they also missed a 54-yard FG that would have won it.  Taylor went 27-of-41 passing for 319 yards with one touchdown and one pick, while also rushing for 40 yards on six carries.  He is clearly the best QB on the roster and the team believes in him.

The Philadelphia Eagles just lost 35-31 last week at home to the Arizona Cardinals.  A win would have put them in control of their own fate in the NFC East.  Now they need the Cowboys to lose to the Commanders as 13-point favorites this week to have a chance.  Deep down they know the Cowboys aren't losing, and when they see Dallas up big at halftime don't be surprised if the Eagles pull their starters in this one.  They need to get healthy for next week.

The Eagles are a very, banged up team.  They are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The problem is with their defense, which has allowed 25 points or more in five of their last six games and an average of 31.5 points per game during this stretch.  They just gave up 35 points and 449 yards to the Cardinals at home last week and were outgained by 174 yards by Arizona.  I think it's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice because they blew a 21-6 lead.

The Giants have no quit in them.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and have been an undervalued commodity here down the stretch because of it.  I think Taylor and company can build off of what they did in the 2H against the Eagles two weeks ago and what they were able to do against the Rams last week.  They are pretty healthy right now, while the Eagles could be without WR Davonte Smith among others.

The Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after covering the spread in two of their last three games.  Philadelphia is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher.  The Giants are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* Texans/Colts AFC South No-Brainer on OVER 47

The Indianapolis Colts are getting healthy are the right time on offense.  They just got RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman back from injury, and backup RB Zack Moss should return this week as well.  All three starting offensive linemen that were questionable earlier this week all got in practices on Thursday as well and should all play.

The Houston Texans just got QB CJ Stroud back from injury last week in time to beat the Titans 26-3.  Stroud makes all the difference for this offense as they were terrible without him.  Stroud went 30-of 47 passing for 337 yards in the first meeting with the Colts, who have a suspect secondary that he can take advantage of in this one.

The weakness of the Texans is their banged-up secondary as well, and you can't run on them and the Colts know it.  They will come up with a pass-happy game plan for this one which will lead to more scoring and keep the clock stopped more often.  Gardner Minshew replaced an injury Anthony Richardson in their 31-20 win at Houston earlier this season.  He went 19-of-23 passing for 171 yards and a touchdown in relief and has held onto the job ever since.

Which ever team is trailing is fully capable of coming back due to their passing attacks.  And the Colts run one of the fastest tempos in the NFL.  The OVER is 7-1 in Indianapolis home games this season as they are scoring 26.5 points per game and averaging 372.5 yards per game at home, while allowing 25.8 points per game and 358.5 yards per game at home.  The Colts and their opponents are combining to average 52.3 points per game at home this season.

Indianapolis is 6-0 OVER in its last six games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season.  It will be perfect conditions inside the dome for a shootout Saturday night, and neither team is going to give up if they are trailing with everything at stake here.  I think we see a shootout between two of the most underrated offenses in the NFL in a back and forth affair.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday night.

15* Colorado/Arizona State Pac-12 ANNIHILATOR on Arizona State +3.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are grossly undervalued right now.  They have pulled off three straight outright upsets as underdogs beating Stanford and California on the road as well as dismantling Utah 82-70 at home as 6-point dogs last time out.

The Colorado Buffaloes have been grossly overvlaued of later.  They are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only beat Washington by 4 as 8.5-point home favorites and Washington State by 7 as 7.5-point home favorites.  They were crushed 97-50 at Arizona as 13-point dogs last time out.

The biggest reason for Colorado's recent struggles is the fact that they are without two of their three best players in Tristan De Silva (15.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Cody Williams (14.0 PPG).  It's very difficult for them to even be competitive without these two, and they certainly should not be favored on the road over Arizona State without them.

Arizona State is 6-0 SU at home this season.  Colorado is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in neutral/true road games and have been terrible on the road for years.  Colorado is 127-167 ATS in its last 294 road games.  Arizona State is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS win.  The Sun Devils are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  They are a streaky team, and they stay hot with their 4th consecutive upset victory tonight.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Pacers OVER 245.5

Both the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers won in blowouts last night that allowed them to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.  Both teams should be fresh for this game on the 2nd of a back-to-back as a result, and I expect this to be a fast-paced game with plenty of points.  No starter played more than 26 minutes for the Celtics and no starter played more than 25 minutes for the Pacers last night.

The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team going 25-10 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating.  They host the team right behind them in the Celtics, who rank 2nd in offensive rating this season.  The Pacers will control the tempo playing at home.

The OVER is 14-4 in Pacers 18 home games this season.  Their last three home games have been ridiculously high scoring as they combined for 266 points with the Hawks, 272 points with the Bucks and 266 points with the Knicks.  It should be more of the same here against the Celtics.

The Celtics won 155-103 in their first meeting with the Pacers this season for 258 combined points.  They only combined for 234 in the 2nd meeting with the Pacers pulling off the 122-112 upset, but the Celtics didn't have Porzingis for that game.  He is is the key to them being so efficient on offense.  

The Celtics have scored at least 120 points in nine consecutive games.  The Pacers have scored at least 120 points in six consecutive games.  Both teams will easily surpass 120 points apiece in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Oklahoma Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are overrated due to their 11-2 start against the 347th-ranked schedule in the country.  Their schedule really couldn't have been much easier to this point.  They have only played on true road game and that came against DePaul, one of the worst teams in the country.

This will be Iowa State's toughest test of the season to date, and I expect them to fail.  They take on an Oklahoma Sooners team that looks to be among the contenders to win the Big 12.  The Sooners are 12-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to North Carolina.

The Sooners are 9-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 26.7 points per game.  Iowa State is 20-40 ATS in its last 60 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  Oklahoma is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games vs. teams that win more than 80% of their games.  Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -4

Bradley is 9-5 against the 82nd-toughest schedule in the country.  Missouri State is 9-5 against the 274th-ranked schedule in the country.  That nearly 200-spot difference in strength of schedule is a big reason I'm laying the points with Bradley at home today.

Missouri State has not looked good on the road this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games losing by 17 at Drake, by 4 at Middle Tennessee and by 1 at Tulsa.  Bradley is on Drake's level and a contender to win the MVC.  They will prove it today.

Bradley won both meetings with Missouri State last season.  They won 58-40 as 2.5-point road dogs and 64-54 as 9.5-point home favorites.  Bradley has one of the best home-court advantages in the country going 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games.

The Braves are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  Missouri State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 65 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Bet Bradley Saturday.

20* Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Stanford/USC OVER 150.5

The USC Trojans are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-3 OVER in all games this season, including 5-1 OVER at home where they are scoring 82.2 points per game.  The Trojans rank 82nd in adjusted tempo and are an elite offensive team but a terrible defensive team.  They have allowed at least 78 points in six of their last eight games overall, including 86 to a bad Oregon State offense.

Stanford ranks 122nd in adjusted tempo and 29th in effective field goal percentage.  The Cardinal are 9-4 OVER in all games this season.  They just hung 100 points in an upset win over Arizona two games back.  They went for 160 combined points with USC in their last trip to face the Trojans.

USC is 7-1 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Stanford is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better.  USC and their opponents have combined for at least 156 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Auburn/Arkansas OVER 157

Arkansas is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Razorbacks are 11-2 OVER in all games this season, including 8-0 OVER in home games where they are scoring 87.9 points per game.  They rank 80th in adjusted tempo this season.

The Auburn Tigers also like to get up and down ranking 70th in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted offense.  They are scoring 84.8 points per game on the season and 82.8 points per game on the road.

Auburn has scored at least 82 points in six consecutive games.  Arkansas has scored at least 77 points in six of its last nine games overall.  I think both teams get 80-plus in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas +2.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a young team that is improving with each passing week under one of the best head coaches in the country in Eric Musselman.  They are 7-1 at home this season which includes an upset win over Duke.

The Razorbacks should not be home underdogs to the Auburn Tigers today.  Auburn has only played one true road game all season.  They lost that game 69-64 at Appalachian State as 7.5-point favorites.  They have had big home/road splits under current head coach Bruce Pearl.

Arkansas is 18-4 SU in its last 22 home meetings with Auburn.  The Tigers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as road favorites of 3 points or less or PK.  The Razorbacks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Line Mistake on Evansville -1.5

Evansville is 10-4 SU & 10-3 ATS and one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  Murray State is 5-9 SU & 5-8 ATS and one of the most overrated.  I'll gladly lay the short number on the Purple Aces at home today.

Murray State is 0-6 SU in neutral/true road games this season.  The Racers were also upset at home as double-digit favorites by SE Louisiana.  Evansville is 6-0 SU at home where they are outscoring opponents by 23.6 points per game.

Murray State is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 road games.  The Racers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following two or more consecutive wins.  Bet Evansville Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Creighton -10

The Creighton Bluejays have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  Look for them to beat Providence by double-digits to cover this number at home Saturday.

Creighton has played the 29th-toughest schedule in the country so they are battle-tested.  Providence has faced the 171st-ranked schedule.  The Friars have only played one true road game, and they lost that game badly 72-51 as 5-point dogs at Oklahoma.  This will now be their toughest test of the season.

Making it even tougher is that they lost their best player in BJ Hopkins (15.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG) to a season-ending injury in their 61-57 upset home loss to Seton Hall as 6-point favorites in their last game.  They stand very little chance of keeping this game competitive on the road in their first game without Hopkins.

Creighton is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after failing to cover the spread in four of its last five games.  Providence is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Bet Creighton Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin-Milwaukee -5.5

Wisconsin-Milwaukee just got its best player back from injury in BJ Freeman (19.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG).  Freeman averaged 17.0 PPG and 5.1 RPG last season for the Panthers.  He was out from November 25th to December 31st.

Freeman returned to action against Wright State on December 31st and poured in 23 points in a 91-83 victory.  He had 15 points and 5 boards in a 100-95 loss at Oakland as 5.5-point dogs last time out.  He means everything to this team, and they are an undervalued commodity moving forward with a healthy Freeman.

Now the Panthers will blow out the worst team in all of college basketball in Detroit.  The Titans are 0-16 this season and just lost their best player in Jayden Stone (18.9 PPG) to injury.  They are 3-13 ATS this season and consistently getting too much respect from the books as people keep betting them hoping to catch a falling knife.

The losses have been real ugly of late for Detroit.  They lost by 18 at home to Wisconsin-Green Bay as 2.5-point dogs, by 35 at IUPFW as 13-point dogs and by 12 at IUPUI as 2.5-point favorites.  They haven't even come close to covering in their last three games, and they won't come close Saturday, either.

Detroit is 0-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games this season.  The Titans are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Wisconsin-Milwaukee Saturday.

15* Marquette/Seton Hall Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on Seton Hall +5

Seton Hall is starting to make some headway under second-year head coach Shaheen Holloway.  The Pirates are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset Missouri on a neutral, upset UConn by 15 as 7.5-point home dogs and upset Providence by 4 as 6-point road dogs during this stretch.

If they can upset UConn at home, they certainly have a great shot to upset Marquette as well.  We just saw Marquette get upset in their Big East road opener, losing 72-57 as 4-point favorites at Providence.  They are coming off a big home win over Creighton by 5, which sets them up for a letdown spot here as well.

Holloway is 46-28 ATS as an underdog as a head coach.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday.

15* UNC/Clemson ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -1.5

The Clemson Tigers are 11-2 SU & 9-4 ATS this season with both of their losses coming on the road to Memphis and Miami.  The Tigers are back home now coming off that loss to Miami, and they are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season.  This is a legit NCAA Tournament and ACC title contender, and they will prove it with a win and cover at home against UNC today.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Tar Heels, who are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  We saw them lose to Kentucky and UConn on a neutral prior to that.  UNC has somehow only played one true road game all season to this point, so they won't be prepared for the kind of atmosphere they are going to face at Clemson Saturday.

UNC Is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Tar Heels are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games with a line of +3 to -3.  Clemson is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after a game with a combined scored of 155 or more points.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Tigers today.  Also, Clemson is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Kings OVER 238

The Sacramento Kings are definitely an OVER team especially playing at home where they can control the tempo.  The OVER is 12-6 in Sacramento's 18 home games this season where they are scoring 121.7 points per game and allowing 120.2 points per game.

The Toronto Raptors just made a trade to bring in RJ Barrett and Emmanuel Quickley from the Knicks.  Those moves make the Raptors more of an OVER team moving forward as both Barrett and Quickley are scorers but poor defenders.  We've seen that play out here of late for the Raptors.

The Raptors have now scored at least 116 points in six consecutive games with the OVER going 4-2 in those six games.  They combined for 245 points with Utah, 238 with Boston, 256 with Detroit and 245 with Cleveland.  This total of 238 is too low for this game tonight considering infusion of offense for the Raptors that Barrett and Quickley provide.

Sacramento is 22-7 OVER in its last 29 home games following an ATS loss.  Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 200 or higher (Sacramento) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game in January games are 37-10 (78.7%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pistons/Warriors OVER 240.5

The Detroit Pistons have gotten healthy here recently which is why they are playing a lot more competitive basketball of late.  But they are only competitive because they have improved greatly offensively, but they are still a terrible defensive team ranking 27th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 6-0 in Pistons last six games overall and 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.  The Pistons and their opponents have combined for at least 240 points in nine of their last 12 games overall.  That includes 302 with Utah last game, 249 with Houston the game prior, 256 with Toronto the game prior and 250 with the Celtics the game prior.

The Warriors are without their two best defenders in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II right now, which makes them more of an OVER team.  The Warriors rank 20th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 3-0 in Warriors last three games overall as they combined for 257 points with the Nuggets, 236 with the Magic and 254 with the Mavericks.  These two teams should have no problem combining to top the 240.5-point total tonight.

Detroit is 22-12 OVER in all games this season, including 13-5 OVER in road games.  The Pistons are 9-0 OVER vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Grizzlies/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 228.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts UNDER team even with JA Morant.  They start three elite defenders in Marcus Smart, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Xavier Tillman who also don't provide a ton offensively at the same time.

The UNDER is 21-13 in all Memphis games this season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four games overall with 227, 204, 215 and 223 combined points, which all would have stayed UNDER this 228.5-point total.

The Lakers are 10-5 UNDER in all home games this season.  They are averaging just over 222 combined points per game at home with their opponents.  Making the Lakers an even stronger UNDER team right now is the fact that they are without PG D'Angelo Russell.  Their offense really bogs down and slows down without him.  They have been held to 96, 109 and 106 points in their last three games overall.

Memphis is 8-1 UNDER after losing four of its last five games this season.  The Lakers and Grizzlies have combined for 228 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings, which makes for a 5-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 228.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Nets OVER 234.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in offensive rating and 6th in pace this season.  The OVER is 6-2 in Thunder last six games overall with 249 or more combined points in five of those eight games.  They just combined for 279 with the Hawks and 250 with the Celtics in their last two games.

Now they get another Eastern Conference foe here in the Nets.  The Nets have gone under the total in four consecutive games, which has suppressed this total as a result.  But the Nets shot 42.9%, 38%, 35.7% and 38.7% from the floor in those four games, which were all on the road.  Now they are back home and primed to shoot it much better.

The Nets are scoring 115.9 points per game at home this season.  If they just get to their season average, which I think they will, we will cash this OVER ticket.  The Nets have allowed at least 110 points in 14 consecutive games.  Brooklyn is 18-6 OVER in its last 24 games off three consecutive losses by 10 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jazz/Celtics OVER 239.5

The Utah Jazz have gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The improvements have come on offense, where the Jazz have scored at least 116 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  But the Jazz rank 24th in defensive rating this season.  If they get to 116 points in this one, which they should, we are going to cash this OVER ticket.

The Celtics rank 2nd in offensive rating right behind the Pacers this season.  They are loaded on that end with Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, Holiday and White being pretty much unstoppable.  The Celtics have scored at least 120 points in eight consecutive games and will easily get 120-plus in this one.

The Celtics are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 235 or more combined points in all eight games, and 241 or more in six of those.  Utah is 26-13 OVER in its last 39 non-conference games.  Boston is 17-4 OVER in its last 21 games vs. Northwest Division opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +7.5

Wisconsin-Milwaukee just got its best player back from injury in BJ Freeman (20.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG).  Freeman averaged 17.0 PPG and 5.1 RPG last season for the Panthers.  He was out from November 25th to December 31st.

Freeman returned to action against Wright State last time out and poured in 23 points in a 91-83 victory.  He means everything to this team, and the Panthers should not be 7.5-point road underdogs to the Oakland Golden Grizzlies tonight with him in the lineup.

Oakland is 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall with the two wins coming against Eastern Michigan and Younstown State.  They were upset by 21 at home by IUP-FW, they were upset at home by Toledo, they lost by 17 at Michigan State, lost by 24 at Dayton and lost by 8 at Cleveland State.  The Golden Grizzlies aren't playing well enough right now to warrant being 7.5-point favorites here.

Oakland is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  Milwaukee is 149-113 ATS in its last 262 games as road underdogs.  The Golden Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet Wisconsin-Milwaukee Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Monmouth +3.5

Monmouth has been grossly undervalued all season going 7-6 SU & 9-3 ATS.  The highlights include an upset road win at West Virginia 73-65 as 14.5-point dogs, an upset win on a neutral over Belmont 93-84 as 6.5-point dogs, a narrow 4-point loss at Cornell as 12.5-point dogs, a narrow 9-point loss at Seton Hall as 14-point dogs, and an easy cover in a 16-point loss at Oklahoma as 22.5-point dogs.

Now Monmouth is back home where they are 4-1 SU this season with their lone loss to Princeton, which is 12-1 this season and one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  Towson State is not that.  The Tigers are also 7-6 this season while playing a much softer schedule than Monmouth.

The Tigers have played the 241st-ranked schedule in the country.  All six of their losses have come by 8 points or more.  The seven wins have come against Coppin State, Robert Morris, Morgan State, UMass, UMBC, Nicholls State and Arcadia.  They haven't beat a decent opponent yet with the exception of UMass.

Monmouth is 6-0 ATS after covering two of their last three games this season.  Bet Monmouth Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Hofstra -1

Hofstra is 1-4 SU in its last five games overall with all four losses coming on the road to Saint Louis, Duke, UNLV and St. John's.  They only lost by 5 to a very good St. John's team last time out.  They will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pride after losing four of their last five.  They have played a brutal schedule this season, a schedule that ranks 22nd-toughest in the entire country.  They have only played four home games all season and have shown well, beating South Florida 82-63 as 5.5-point home favorites and Norfolk State 74-58 as 9-point favorites in their last two home games.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on College of Charleston coming off five consecutive victories.  All five wins came at home against a very soft schedule.  They were last seen on the road losing 90-74 at Florida Atlantic as 14-point dogs on December 10th.  They also lost by 18 to Duquesne, by 9 to Vermont and by 7 to Wyoming on a neutral earlier this season.

Hofstra is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite.  The Price are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 conference games.  Hofstra is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after four straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers.  Bet Hofstra Thursday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on California/USC OVER 151.5

USC is really a dead nuts OVER team with loads of offensive talent but poor defensive chemistry.  That's why the Trojans are just 6-7 this season despite having so much talent.  They rank 84th in adjusted tempo, 63rd in adjusted offense and 84th in adjusted defense.

The Trojans just allowed 86 points to Oregon State, which is one of the worst offensive teams in the country.  They also allowed 82 points to Oregon the game before, plus 91 to Auburn, 84 to Long Beach State and 89 to Gonzaga recently.

California just allowed 100 points to Arizona, 88 to Ole Miss and 97 to Butler in some recent games.  The Golden Bears rank 120th in adjusted offense but just 237th in adjusted defense.  They also play faster than most teams ranking 169th in adjusted tempo.

California is 7-0 OVER as an underdog this season.  USC is 10-3 OVER in all games this season.  USC is 8-1 OVER in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Jazz OVER 237.5

The Utah Jazz are fully healthy right now and lighting it up offensively.  They have scored at least 116 points in seven of their last eight games overall and 10 of their last 12 games overall.  They will hang a big number on the Pistons, who rank 26th in defensive rating this season.

The Pistons have also gotten healthy in recent weeks which is why they have been more competitive and were able to snap their losing streak.  The Pistons have scored at least 111 points in eight consecutive games.  But they are so bad defensively, allowing at least 118 points in 12 consecutive games.  The OVER is 9-2 in Pistons last 11 games overall with 240 or more combined points in eight of those 11 games.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five games overall.

Detroit is 21-9 OVER as an underdog this season.  Utah is 17-6 OVER in its last 23 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  The Jazz are 25-13 OVER in their last 38 non-conference games.  The Pistons rank 6th in pace while the Jazz rank 11th, so we'll get the pace we need to cash this OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Stanford/UCLA ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on UCLA -4.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on UCLA and 'sell high' on Stanford tonight with the perfect storm here.  UCLA is 1-5 SU in its last six games overall as the Bruins have been one of the biggest disappointments in the country up to this point.

But I expect the Bruins to fire back here at home tonight against a Stanford team coming off one of the biggest wins of the entire season.  They throttled Arizona 100-82 at home on December 31st to pull off the upset as 12-point underdogs.  They shot a ridiculous 58.1% from the floor as everything they looked at went in.

Things won't come nearly as easily against UCLA, which ranks 39th in adjusted defense.  Remember, this is a Stanford team that lost by 22 to Northern Iowa, by 14 to San Diego State and by 12 to Santa Clara earlier this season.  That win over Arizona was the aberration, not the norm for this Cardinal team.

UCLA owns Stanford, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with all four wins coming by 9 points or more.  Jarod Haase is 4-12 ATS in road games off a conference win by 10 points or more as the coach of Stanford.  Mick Cronin is 10-2 ATS in home games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game as the coach of UCLA.  Bet UCLA Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Mavs OVER 236.5

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in pace, 10th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating.  Kyrie Irving just returned from injury against the Jazz last time out and was rusty.  The Mavericks scored 90 points and shot 39.8% from the floor as a team.  This total has been suppressed due to that result, and now it's a good time to 'buy low' on a Mavericks OVER.  Irving will be much sharper in his 2nd game back tonight.

It's also a good time to 'buy low' on a Blazers OVER after they scored 88 points on 41.2% shooting against the Suns last time out.  Anfernee Simons (27.1 PPG) has sat out the last three games with an illness.  I have to think he returns for the Blazers tonight.  Simons scored at least 23 points in six consecutive games prior to going down with Illness.  His presence on the court makes the Blazers an OVER team.  Shaeden Sharpe (16.4 PPG) also just returned from injury, while center DeAandre Ayton is out right now.  Ayton is their most important defender so it's good for us that he is out.

Dallas is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 home games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Mavericks are 14-3 OVER vs. a team with a losing record this season.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  The Blazers and Mavericks have combined for at least 237 points in five consecutive meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Hawks Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 247

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace, 6th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 9-3-1 in Atlanta's 13 home games this season where they are scoring 123.8 points per game on 48.4% shooting and allowing 125.4 points per game on 50.4% shooting.

The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 5th in offensive rating this season and are filling it up right now.  The Thunder have scored at least 116 points in 12 consecutive games and are averaging 121.5 points per game on 49.9% shooting this season.  They will get what they want on offense tonight, but they may have a letdown defensively after upsetting the Celtics last night.

The OVER is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings between the Thunder and Hawks including 269 and 254 combined points in a couple recent meetings.  Atlanta is 7-0 OVER  after losing four of its last five games this season.  Oklahoma City is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Cavs OVER 239

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.  But they do fill it up on offense with plenty of talent to get their points on a nightly basis.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are more of an OVER team this season than in year's past because they are shooting a lot more 3-pointers and playing faster.  They just went for 245 combined points with the Raptors in their last game, and I think we get 240-plus here with ease.

The Wizards and their opponents have combined for at least 241 points in 17 of their last 27 games overall.  Washington is 33-21 OVER in its last 54 games when the total is 230 or higher.  The Wizards are 13-3 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Cleveland) - off a road loss, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or less) are 27-5 (84.4%) since 1996.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Bucks/Pacers Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 258.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Well, this will already be the 5th meeting between the Pacers and Bucks this season.  They have combined for 250, 247, 266 and 235 points in those four meetings.  The Books have set the bar too high tonight.

The Pacers and Bucks just combined for 235 points in their 4th meeting just two days ago on January 1st.  It will be more of the same here as these teams know each other inside and out at this point and will be able to defend one another.  Injuries will also help us cash this UNDER with Middleton questionable for the Bucks and Brown and Nembhard questionable for the Pacers.

Milwaukee is 32-17 UNDER in its last 49 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Indiana) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 27-6 (81.8%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* New Mexico/Colorado State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado State -3.5

Colorado State is not only one of the best mid-major teams in the country but one of the very best college basketball teams in the country, period.  The Rams are 12-1 this season with their lone loss coming to St. Mary's when they were short-handed.  They have wins over two of the best teams in the country in Creighton (69-48) and Colorado (88-83), and they should be more than 3.5-point home favorites over New Mexico tonight.

Colorado State lost two key players in Jalen Lake and Josiah Strong for a stretch of games recently.  But they just got Lake (8.2 PPG) back from injury and will be getting Strong (8.5 PPG) back later this month.  And they still have four players averaging 12.2 PPG or more this season.

Somehow New Mexico has only played one true road game this season.  The Lobos nearly lost outright at New Mexico State in a 73-72 win as 14.5-point favorites in that lone true road game.  We know the Lobos dominate at home with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  But they struggle on the road, and I'll gladly fade them here in only their 2nd true road game this season.

Colorado State is 7-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season.  Colorado State is 5-1 SU in its last six meetings with New Mexico with all five wins coming by 6 points or more.  Bet Colorado State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Northwestern +6

Illinois just lost its best player in Terrence Shannon Jr. (21.7 PPG) to a suspension due to rape charges over Christmas Break.  That's a big blow to their season and a huge distraction right now.  They should not be favored by 6 over Northwestern tonight without Shannon Jr.

Northwestern is 10-2 this season with a win over Purdue.  The Wildcats have been a thorn in Illinois' side in recent meetings as well going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings not once losing by more than 7 points despite playing three of those on the road.

Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games after playing a game as a favorite.  The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games coming off an ATS loss.  Bet Northwestern Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Thunder NBA No-Brainer on OVER 240

Two of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Boston Celtics visit the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Celtics rank 2nd in offensive rating while the Thunder rank 6th.  Both teams are fully healthy right now as well so expect plenty of fireworks in this one.

I expect both the Thunder and Celtics to exceed 120 points in this one.  The Thunder have scoreda t least 119 points in six consecutive games and 116 or more in 11 consecutive games.  The Celtics have scored 120 or more points in seven consecutive games, and 114 or more in 12 consecutive games.

Oklahoma City is 18-4 OVER in its last 22 games off a home win by 10 points or more.  Boston is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games vs. Northwest Division opponents.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 267, 248 and 255 combined points.  The Thunder are 14-1 OVER in their last 15 games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the best covering team in the NBA for three seasons running.  They just cannot seem to get the respect they deserve because they are a small market team.  They continue playing with a chip on their shoulder as a result.

Now they will prove themselves once again against the team that everyone is picking to win the NBA title in the Boston Celtics.  The Thunder are 22-9 SU & 22-8 ATS this season, including 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS at home where they are outscoring opponents by 8.5 points per game.  The Thunder (+8.7) rank 3rd in the NBA in net rating, only behind the Celtics (10.4) and 76ers (10.3).  This line should be much closer to PK when you look at net rating and factor in home-court advantage.

The Celtics have been vulnerable on the road where they are 10-6 SU & 6-8 ATS.  They were just taken to OT by the Pistons at home and won by 2 over the Raptors in two of their last three games.  They did blow out the Spurs on the road who were without Keldon Johnson, but everyone is beating the Spurs.

Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.  Boston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. good pressure defensive teams that force 15 or more turnovers per game.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue/Maryland UNDER 141.5

Maryland is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Terrapins rank 270th in adjusted tempo, 25th in adjusted defense and 134th in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight, and they will slow it down to a snail's pace to try and give themselves their best chance to upset Purdue.

The Boilermakers rank 9th in adjusted defense.  They always tend to play Maryland in low-scoring games home or away.  Indeed, the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 122, 113, 123 and 121 combined points scored in those four.  The UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings as well with 126 or fewer combined points in seven of their last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Mavericks/Jazz OVER 245

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in pace, 7th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating.  The Mavericks got great injury news heading into this one with Doncic and Exum participating in shootaround today, plus the big one in Irving also participating and expected to make his return.  They are really an OVER team when Irving is playing.

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy as well.  They rank 12th in pace and 24th in defensive rating, and are a much better offensive team when Markkanen and Clarkson are playing, which is the case right now.  The Jazz have scored at least 116 points in six of their last seven games overall.

Dallas is 21-11 OVER in all games this season.  Utah is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 home games when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more.  They gave up 147 points to the Mavericks in their first meeting this season.  The Mavericks are 14-2 OVER vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* CFB Playoff GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +4

The Washington Huskies have been doubted all season.  They got off to a blistering start, but then had a lull in their schedule where they were lacking motivation against inferior teams.  But they handled their business and won the games as they needed to.  They simply played to the level of their competition at times.

But when they stepped up in class, they also exceeded expectations.  They beat Oregon at home, upset Oregon State on the road and upset Oregon as double-digit underdogs in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  They outgained Oregon 483 to 353 for the game, or by 130 total yards.  They honestly should have won by more.

The Huskies had some key players banged up and playing through injury at the end of the season.  QB Michael Penix Jr. had a broken rib late in the year, RB Dillon Johnson was playing through injury and WR Jalen McMillan was also playing through injury.  This month break with their last game on December 1st will do wonders for these three.  Now the Huskies should be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.

Texas lost star RB Jonathan Brooks late in the season.  He has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 TD while averaging 6.1 per carry.  Backups CJ Baxter (4.6/carry) isn't nearly as explosive.  Texas also lost leading WR Xavier Worthy in the Big 12 Championship Game to injury.  He was seen limping and on crutches after the game.  While he is expected to play, he has admitted he won't be anywhere near 100%.  That's a big blow considering Worthy has 73 receptions for 969 yards and 5 TD this season.

Texas isn't going to have the firepower on offense to keep up with Washington.  And I like the matchup for this Washington offense up against this Texas defense.  The strength of the Longhorns is their run D, but you can throw on them.  That fits perfectly for what head coach Kalen DeBoer wants to do, which is throw it all over the yard.  The Huskies average 344 passing yards per game and 9.2 per attempt.  Texas allowed 305 passing yards to Baylor, 378 to Houston, 327 to Kansas State, 302 to TCU and 323 to Iowa State in Big 12 play.

Texas does have the better defense overall, but Washington's defense is better than it gets credit for.  The Huskies do allow you to move the ball between the 20's, but they were one of the best red zone D's in the country, which is why they only allow 23.6 points per game.  I think they can more than handle their own defensively, and this will be a step up in class for Texas' offense after facing an easy schedule of opposing defenses in the Big 12.

Washington beat Texas 27-20 last year in the bowl game.  There was nothing fluky about is as the Huskies racked up 445 total yards on the Longhorns.  It will be more of the same this year, except the difference is the Huskies are better than they were a year ago in their bowl game.  They will be able to play with a chip on their shoulder again listed as the underdog.  I fully expect the Huskies to win this game outright, but we will take the points for some insurance.  

Steve Sarkisian is 0-8 ATS vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game as the coach of Texas.  Kalen DeBoer is 10-1 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  I'll take DeBoer over Sarkisian every time with time to prepare.  Bet Washington in the Sugar Bowl Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Rockets OVER 227.5

The Houston Rockets have been a dead nuts OVER team since losing their best defender in Dillon Brooks to injury.  He doesn't provide much offensively.  The OVER is 3-0 in Rockets last three games overall with 240, 242 and 258 combined points.  This total of 227.5 is way too short tonight.

The Detroit Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season which is why they are playing much better of late.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pistons last seven games overall and we have seen 230 or more combined points in all seven games.  Again, this total of 227.5 is too low given those facts.

Detroit is 20-9 OVER as an underdog this season.  The Pistons are 9-1 OVER in road games vs. teams who attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season.  Detroit is 12-2 OVER vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  Houston is 16-6 OVER in its last 22 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Alabama/Michigan Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Alabama +2

The wrong team is favored in the Rose Bowl.  Alabama will be the best team that Michigan has faced all season and I don't expect it to go well for them.  It will go similarly to how it did against TCU last year.  Michigan was upset by TCU, and TCU went on to lose by 56 to Georgia.  The SEC is simply king.

We saw that play out Saturday with Ole Miss upsetting Penn State 38-25 and Georgia blasting Florida State 63-3.  Missouri also upset Ohio State 14-3 the day prior.  Alabama beat both Ole Miss and Georgia to get here.

Michigan was able to bully teams in the Big Ten.  The Big Ten was a terrible offensive league this season.  Michigan won't be able to bully Alabama at the line is scrimmage.  Plus, Michigan hasn't faced the kind of athletes on offense that they will have to deal with in this one.  

QB Jalen Milroe is a physical specimen that can beat you with his arms and his legs.  Michigan won't be prepared because they haven't seen anything like him.  He completed 65.5% of his passes for 2,718 yards with a 23-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 468 yards and 12 scores on the ground.  I will take Milroe over Michigan's JJ McCarthy all day.  McCarthy hasn't been asked to do much this season because Michigan bullies everyone with their ground game, and he won't be prepared to need to do more in this one.

I like the fact that Alabama is the underdog in this one so Nick Saban can use that as a motivating tool that nobody believes in this team still, and they will be out to prove something.  The Crimson Tide upset Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to improve to 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  

Alabama is 7-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play this season.  Saban is 8-1 ATS vs. Big Ten opponents as the coach of Alabama.  Harbaugh is 4-12 ATS when playing with two or more weeks' rest as the coach of Michigan.  Bet Alabama in the Rose Bowl Monday.

20* Iowa/Tennessee Citrus Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 35

The Big Ten West was dreadful this season.  Iowa managed to win it with one of the worst offenses in college football history.  However, a lot of that had to do with them having to play some great defenses and very poor offenses.  Iowa isn't used to playing the type of team they will be up against in the Citrus Bowl.

Tennessee runs an up-tempo offense that is conducive to a lot of points being scored by both teams.  The Volunteers rank 3rd in the country in seconds per play on offense.  They are going to force Iowa into more of a track meet than they're used to, especially if the Volunteers jump out ahead like they are supposed to as the favorite.

11 of Tennessee's 12 games have seen 43 or more combined points.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 35-point total.  Starting QB Joe Milton has opted out of this bowl game, but that's the only real significant loss on offense for the Volunteers.  Many Tennessee fans wanted Nico Iamaleava to start over Milton this season anyway, and now he will get his shot in this bowl game.  Iowa won't know what to do to prepare for with him without game film on him.  Iamaleava is the top-ranked QB recruit in program history, and Josh Heupel and offensive coordinator Joey Halzle cannot wait to unleash him.

The biggest losses for the Volunteers as far as opt-outs are concerned are on defense.  Starting DE Tyler Baron, starting S Wesley Walker, starting CB Doneiko Slaughter, and starting slot CB Tamarion McDonald have all hit the transfer portal.  They have six players in the secondary that have hit the portal.  They will be without at least four starters and possibly more on defense.  Iowa will be able to move the football much easier than normal against this defense, which will be a big step down in class for them compared to what they are used to facing in the Big Ten.

Iowa losing CB/PR Cooper DeJean to injury late in the season is a big blow.  He was a unanimous 1st-team All-American.  Without having his leadership out there it's going to be much tougher sledding for this Iowa defense up against arguably the most high-powered offense they have seen all season.  Iowa's schedule of opposing offenses this season is an absolute joke playing in the Big Ten West, plus facing Western Michigan, Iowa State and Utah State in the non-conference.

Iowa's offense tends to bust out in bowl games, too.  The Hawkeyes have scored at least 20 points in 18 consecutive bowl games.  If they get to 20 in this one, it's going OVER the total.  Iowa and their opponents have combined for at least 35 points in 17 of their last 19 bowl games.  That makes for a 17-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 35-point total.  Bet the OVER in the Citrus Bowl Monday.