|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-22-19||Duke v. Pittsburgh +13||79-64||Loss||-109||9 h 45 m||Show|
15* Duke/Pitt ESPN No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +13
The Duke Blue Devils are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They are coming off a huge win over top-ranked Virginia 72-70 on Saturday. They put a lot of emotion into that game, and they will be hard-pressed to match that effort here on the road at Pittsburgh. That’s going to make it tough for them to put away this feisty Panthers team by more than 13 points.
Pittsburgh has been one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Panthers have gone 12-6 SU & 12-5 ATS this season as first-year head coach Jeff Capel has done an excellent job of implementing quality transfers. And you can bet Capel wants to beat his mentor in Coach K as he served as an assistant at Duke for eight seasons prior to joining Pitt.
The Panthers are 10-2 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season. They have already upset Florida State 75-62 as 4-point dogs and upset Louisville 89-86 as 3-point dogs in ACC play this season at home. And Duke is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers of late, going 0-3 ATS in their last three games, all of which were decided by 4 points or fewer against FSU, Syracuse and Virginia.
Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (Duke) - off a win by 6 points or less are 59-26 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS vs. good shooting teams who make 45% or more of their shots this season. The Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with Pittsburgh Tuesday.
|01-22-19||Indiana v. Northwestern||Top||66-73||Win||100||9 h 43 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern PK
I love the situation for the Northwestern Wildcats tonight. They will be seeking revenge from a tough 66-68 road loss at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on December 1st. Now they have a shot at revenge at home this time around, and they only have to win the game to cover.
Indiana has lost four straight while going just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. Three of those four losses came by double-digits, and their only win during this stretch came five games back at home against the worst team in the Big Ten in Illinois.
Northwestern gets an extra day of rest and preparation here having last played on Friday, while Indiana last played on Saturday in a 15-point loss at Purdue. It will also be just the 2nd game in 9 days for the Wildcats, who recently got their best player in Vic Law back from injury. He means everything to this team.
Indiana is 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in true road games this season with their only win coming by two points at Penn State. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings. The Hoosiers are 1-8 ATS in Tuesday road games over the last three seasons. The Wildcats are 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven home meetings. Bet Northwestern Tuesday.
|01-22-19||Texas Tech v. Kansas State -1||45-58||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
15* Texas Tech/K-State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -1
The Kansas State Wildcats battled injuries through most of the season. But now they are fully healthy, and they are starting to show their potential. Indeed, the Wildcats are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They won on the road at Iowa State and Oklahoma, and blasted TCU by 10 at home.
The Wildcats’ only loss during this stretch came back when they were missing a couple players in a 57-63 road loss at Texas Tech as 11.5-point dogs. They only lost by 6 despite shooting 33.3% overall and 4-for-23 (17.4%) from 3-point range. Now healthy, the Wildcats want their revenge on the Red Raiders at home this time around.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings, and the Wildcats basically just have to win this game to cover. The Red Raiders are coming off a home loss to Iowa State and an 11-point road loss at Baylor, and I think they are way overvalued right now.
That has been evident with the fact that the Red Raiders are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Texas Tech is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss. The Red Raiders are 5-16-2 ATS in their last 23 Big 12 games. The Wildcats are 28-11-3 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Texas Tech is 0-8 ATS off a conference loss over the last two seasons. Kansas State is 22-3 ATS in its last 25 home games off two straight wins by 10 points or more. Take Kansas State Tuesday.
|01-21-19||Marshall v. Western Kentucky -4.5||Top||59-68||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Western Kentucky -4.5
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are a lot better than their 9-9 record would suggest. Each of their last six losses have come by 6 points or less, including the last three by a combined five points.
One of those losses was a one-point defeat at Marshall, 69-70. That game was played on January 12th, so the Hilltoppers don’t have to wait long for their shot at revenge. They’ll be highly motivated for a victory here, especially since they also lost by a single point 66-67 to Marshall in the C-USA Tournament last year.
Marshall is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in true road games this season, and three of those wins have come by a combined five points, so they were very close to being 1-8 on the road this year. Western Kentucky is 5-2 at home with wins over the likes of St. Mary’s and Wisconsin. They also have road wins over West Virginia and Arkansas this season. Those four wins alone show you that this is a very good team.
Marshall is 0-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season. The Thundering Herd are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games off five or more consecutive wins. Western Kentucky is 6-0 ATS off a home ATS loss where they won straight up as a favorite over the last two seasons. Bet Western Kentucky Monday.
|01-21-19||Magic v. Hawks -104||122-103||Loss||-104||5 h 3 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Hawks PK
It’s safe to say the Atlanta Hawks aren’t tanking. They have some impressive results over the last few weeks that show they can play with anyone. And I certainly think they can beat the Magic at home tonight, especially since the Hawks are the more rested team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.
The Hawks beat the Heat by 24 as 6.5-point home dogs on January 6th. They followed that up with only a 3-point road loss at Toronto as 13.5-point dogs. They upset Philadelphia as 10.5-point road dogs on January 11th. They upset Oklahoma City as 10.5-point home dogs on January 15th. And last time out they led the Celtics the entire way until the 4th quarter and lost by 8.
The Magic are starting to show some fatigue. The will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and their 9th game in 16 days. They have lost three straight coming in and are just 5-12 SU & 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Orlando is 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games with six of those losses coming by 10 points or more. Roll with the Hawks Monday.
|01-21-19||Mavs +11.5 v. Bucks||106-116||Win||100||4 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +11.5
The Dallas Mavericks are highly motivated for a victory here Monday night. They have lost three straight coming in and will be excited to play the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference in the Milwaukee Bucks. The Mavericks will be rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 3rd game in 8 days.
The Bucks are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to going 11-2 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. But now they are being asked to lay double-digits consistently, and betting on double-digit favorites in the NBA is a quick way to lose a lot of money.
The Mavericks have owned the Bucks, going 9-2 SU & 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Their two losses came by a combined 8 points with one by 7 and one by a single point. Asking the Bucks to have to win this game by 12 or more points to cover is simply asking too much.
Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games, in non-conference games are 40-10 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points in this situation have gone 29-6 ATS over the last five years as well. Take the Mavericks Monday.
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs -3||37-31||Loss||-103||105 h 17 m||Show|
15* Patriots/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -3
When you consider the Patriots needed a last-second field goal to beat the Chiefs at home in their first meeting this season, it’s easy to see why I like the Chiefs this week. Now the Chiefs are at home as they earned home-field advantage with the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That’s going to be the difference in this game Sunday.
The Chiefs are 8-1 at home this season. Their defense has played so much better at home than on the road. They are giving up just 17.4 points and 344.6 yards per game at home this season. They held the Colts to just 13 points and 263 total yards last week, which is no small feat with how well the Colts were rolling. And now they will shut down Tom Brady and company this week.
While the Patriots are 9-0 at home this season, they have been extremely vulnerable on the road. Indeed, the Patriots are just 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS on the road this season, actually getting outscored by 2.4 points per game on average. They give up 399 yards per game on the road, and their offense is only scoring 21.6 points per game on the highway. The Patriots have losses to the likes of Jacksonville (20-31), Detroit (10-26), Tennessee (10-34) and Miami (33-34) on the road this season. All four of those are non-playoff teams even. They also lost to Pittsburgh, and their three wins have come against the Jets, Bills and Bears.
The Patriots have never gone to the Super Bowl the year after losing the Super Bowl, going 0-5 in five tries. Tom Brady is just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS as a road underdog in the playoffs. And Brady lost his big play threat in Josh Gordon late in the season. Brady averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with Gordon on the field, and only 5.6 per attempt with Gordon off the field this season. Gronk is a shell of his former self. He has two or fewer receptions and 25 or fewer receiving yards in four straight games right now.
Home teams are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in the Championship Round over the last five years. That’s right, no team has gone on the road in the last five years and won a game to get to the Super Bowl. It’s worth noting that the Patriots scored 41 points on the Chargers last week. But teams who scored 40 points or more in a playoff win the previous week are just 5-25-1 ATS the next week, including 2-11-1 ATS in the Championship Round. Also, the Patriots have been home for three straight weeks, which has been a big advantage for them. Teams who go on the road following three straight home games have gone 3-14 SU & 3-14 ATS in the playoffs.
Kansas City is 9-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who average 260 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons. The Patriots are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine conference championship games. It’s Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes’ time. They are getting to the Super Bowl with a win and cover here against the ‘mighty’ Patriots. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
|01-20-19||Missouri State v. Drake -3||63-74||Win||100||5 h 10 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Drake -3
The Drake Bulldogs are worth a bet at home today against the Missouri State Bears. This Drake team has been one of the most underrated in the country all season. That’s evident by the fact that they’ve gone 12-4 ATS in their 16 lined games. They are also 7-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this year, winning by 15.1 points per game on average.
Missouri State is clearly down this season. The Bears have gone 8-10 SU and 7-10 ATS in their 17 lined games. That includes a 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS mark in all games played away from home. The Bears should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers today.
Missouri State is 0-9 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. They are coming back to lose by 9.0 points per game on average in this spot. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bulldogs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. Drake is 23-8-1 ATS in its lsat 32 home games. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Drake Sunday.
|01-20-19||Rams v. Saints -3||Top||26-23||Loss||-125||102 h 43 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -3
The Saints are the best team in the NFC. They have been all season, and they still are. So with that being the case, they should be more than a 3-point favorite over the Rams when you factor in home-field advantage. The home field for the Saints is worth more than 3 points, especially in a playoff atmosphere. And they’re the better team. This line should be closer to -4.5 or -5 than -3.
I think because the Saints have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, while the Rams have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall gives us a ‘buy low, sell high’ opportunity here. We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Saints and ’sell high’ on the Rams. But the Saints were big favorites in each of their last four games, and they won three of them. The only one they lost was a meaningless Week 17 game against Carolina in which they rested their starters.
I think the Saints are getting discredited too much for their 20-14 win over the Eagles last week. The way they won trailing 14-0 and overcoming adversity to score the final 20 points and shut down the Eagles after the first quarter will give them a ton of confidence heading into this game. This team feel invincible now, especially after the defense came up with a huge INT to save the game on the final drive. And it’s worth noting the Saints outgained the Eagles by 188 yards in that game. The Rams lost outright to the Eagles 23-30 at home as 13.5-point favorites late in the season.
I’m definitely backing the better quarterback here in Drew Brees, and the better defense in the Saints. I’ll almost always back the better QB and the better defense every time in this situation. Drew Brees is 6-0 in playoff home games under Sean Payton. The Saints are scoring 32.6 points and averaging 402.9 yards per game at home this season.
But it’s the defense that really gets me excited. The Saints have allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games in which their starters played. They are giving up just 14.5 points per game in those eight games in which their starters played. And I think the biggest strength, which is their run D, will be huge in this matchup.
Jared Goff can’t be trusted in big games. He has a 0-to-5 TD/INT ratio in his last three games against playoff teams. It’s a big reason the Rams went run-heavy last week, rushing for 273 yards on 48 carries against the Cowboys. But it’s worth noting they had a huge advantage because they picked up on a ’tell’ by the Cowboys that let them know which way they were stunting. Players said it was 80% to 90% of the time right. It explains why the Rams were able to exploit what was previously a great Cowboys run D.
Well, the Saints rank 2nd in the NFL against the run, giving up just 80.2 rushing yards per game. They are also 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt (3.6) allowed. There’s no question the Saints are going to try to force Jared Goff to try and beat them, and I don’t think he can. The Rams’ passing game just hasn’t been nearly as effective since Goff lost his favorite security blanked in Cooper Kupp to a season-ending injury.
The Saints beat the Rams 45-35 at home in their first meeting this season. They racked up 487 total yards and 31 first downs on this Rams’ defense, which has some star players, but as a whole is extremely vulnerable. Clearly Brees and company found some holes in the first meeting, throwing for 346 yards and four touchdowns. That was a 35-14 game and was a bigger blowout than the final score showed even. And Goff had Kupp, who had 89 receiving yards and a score in that contest.
Home teams are a perfect 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in the Championship Games over the past five seasons. That’s right, no road team has gone on the road to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl in the last five years. I don’t think it will be a QB the caliber of Goff that ends this streak Sunday. The home team has won six straight meetings in this series. The Saints have won their last three home meetings wit the Rams by an average of 18.7 points per game. Bet The Saints Sunday.
|01-19-19||Kings -2 v. Pistons||Top||103-101||Push||0||8 h 26 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -2
The Detroit Pistons are in a very tough spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days. They needed OT to beat Orlando a few nights ago, and snuck out a 98-93 victory over the Heat at home last night. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Sacramento Kings tonight.
Making matters worse for the Pistons is the fact that the Kings play at the 2nd-fasted pace in the NBA, so they will certainly test Detroit’s tired legs. And the Pistons have some key injuries with Andre Drummond expected to miss this game, and Ish Smith questionable with a groin injury.
The Kings come in rested an ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days. They had their impressive three-game winning streak come to an end with their 95-114 loss at Charlotte last time out, but that was a bad spot for them as the Hornets were out for revenge after losing to them less than a week prior in Sacramento. I took the Hornets in that game, but I’m on the Kings tonight in a great bounce-back spot.
Detroit is 0-7 ATS in home games when revving a loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more this season. The Pistons are losing by 9.0 points per game in this spot. The Kings beat the Pistons by 10 at home in their first meeting this year. Sacramento is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents, and also 20-6 ATS in its last 26 when playing on one days’ rest. The road team is 14-6-2 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Bet the Kings Saturday.
|01-19-19||Oklahoma State +13 v. Iowa State||Top||59-72||Push||0||7 h 12 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +13
I love the spot for Oklahoma State today. The Cowboys want revenge form a 63-69 home loss to Iowa State as 4-point dogs in their first meeting this season. And now they are catching a whopping 13 points in the rematch here.
Oklahoma State has been very competitive on the road this season. They have played five true road games, and they didn’t lose once by more than 10 points. They also won outright at West Virginia 85-77 as 7-point dogs. I think they are being devalued after getting upset by Baylor at home last time out, but Baylor shot 15-for-25 from 3-point range so there wasn’t much they could do in their 79-83 loss.
Iowa State is in a massive letdown spot off its upset road win over Top 10 opponent Texas Tech. They lost outright to Kansas State as 8.5-point favorites in their previous home game. Oklahoma State hasn’t lost any of its last five trips to Ames by more than 11 points. And it’s worth noting the Cowboys get extra rest here having last played on the 14th, while the Cyclones played on the 16th.
Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. They are actually winning these games by 3.7 points per game on average. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.
|01-19-19||SMU v. Memphis -3||61-83||Win||100||6 h 43 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -3
The Memphis Tigers are 9-1 at home this season. They should be able to handle their business as only 3-point home favorites against SMU, which has gone 1-4 ATS in all games played away from home this year.
SMU is 1-8 ATS in road games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons. Memphis is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last two seasons. The Mustangs are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Saturday games.
The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings. The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with Memphis Saturday.
|01-19-19||UCLA v. USC -2||67-80||Win||100||5 h 12 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC -2
Off back-to-back road losses, the USC Trojans return home Saturday. I fully expect them to get back in the win column, which saw them win four straight at home prior to those road losses. The Trojans are now 8-2 at home this season, outscoring their opponents by 14.6 points pre game.
The UCLA Bruins are just 1-2 in true road games, getting outscored by 13.0 points per game. They will be playing their 3rd consecutive road games, which is tough for any college basketball team. Home-court advantage has meant a lot in this series as the home team is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings.
USC is 20-6 ATS after two straight games where they gave up 9 or fewer offensive rebounds over the past three seasons. UCLA is 1-4 ATS in tis last five road games. The Bruins are 7-19 ATS int heir last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Trojans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with USC Saturday.
|01-19-19||Cincinnati v. Wichita State +5.5||Top||66-55||Loss||-109||4 h 1 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wichita State +5.5
Wichita State has improved a ton since the beginning of the season, which is a testament to head coach Gregg Marshall. The Shockers have played an absolutely brutal schedule here of late and they’ve held their own. They took Temple to OT in a game they led throughout at home, they covered as 11-point dogs at Houston, and they upset UCF 75-67 as 2.5-point home dogs last time out
Now the Shockers get to face an overrated Cincinnati team, and they are catching too many points at home here today with this 5.5-point spread. The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They lost outright as 17.5-point favorites at East Carolina, needed OT to win at Tulsa as 6.5-point favorites, only beat UConn by 2 as 11.5-point home games, and only beat USF by 8 as 13.5-point home favorites.
Cincinnati is 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season with their two wins both coming by 5 points or less at Tulsa and at UNLV. They were upset by ECU and also lost by 11 at Mississippi State. Both meetings were decided by 4 points or less last year and by a combined 5 points. The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. Bet Wichita State Saturday.
|01-19-19||Indiana +9 v. Purdue||55-70||Loss||-109||4 h 0 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +9
This is a good time to ‘buy low’ on Indiana and ’sell high’ on Purdue. The Hoosiers have lost three straight coming in, though they were competitive in road losses to Michigan and Maryland, two of the top teams in the Big Ten and two teams that are better than Purdue.
Purdue comes in overvalued after winning five of its last six games overall. But they have feasted on a weak schedule with home wins over Ohio, Belmont, Iowa and Rutgers, as well as a road win at Wisconsin in overtime. They lost by 18 at Michigan State in their lone loss.
Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or less, and all five by 11 points or fewer. The Boilermakers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday games. Purdue is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 vs. Big Ten opponents. Take Indiana Saturday.
|01-19-19||Pittsburgh +8 v. Syracuse||63-74||Loss||-109||3 h 13 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +8
This is a dream spot to fade Syracuse. The Orange are coming off a massive 95-91 win at Duke as 17-point dogs. Now it’s only human nature for them to suffer a letdown at home today against Pitt. They won’t be nearly as focused against Pitt as they were against Duke, which is going to make it difficult to cover this 8-point spread.
It also works in our favor that Pitt has been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season. Jeff Capel has done a tremendous job of implementing transfers, and the Panthers have gone 12-5 SU & 12-4 ATS this season. They have outright wins as underdogs over the likes of FSU, Louisville, and Saint Louis, and three of their five losses came by 6 points or less, including two by exactly one point.
Syracuse has played better on the road than at home. The Orange have been upset at home by Buffalo, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech this season. They also have neutral court losses to Oregon and UConn, and they only beat Georgetown by one as 9.5-point favorites. They will struggle to putt away Pitt given the spot.
The Panthers are 22-7-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings, and 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 trips to Syracuse. Pittsburgh is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Panthers are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games overall. The Orange are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 Saturday games. The Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games after two straight games where they attempted 10 or fewer shots than their opponents. Pitt is 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season. Take Pittsburgh.
|01-18-19||Pelicans v. Blazers -2.5||112-128||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5
The Portland Trail Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. Playing the Pacific Northwest gives them that advantage, plus their fans are always loyal. They have gone 19-7 SU & 16-10 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.0 points per game.
The New Orleans Pelicans are just 6-18 SU & 9-14-1 ATS on the road this season. The Pelicans are coming off a tough 140-147 road loss to the defending champion Warriors, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. I always like fading teams after they play the Warriors because it’s impossible for them to be as emotionally invested as they were against the Warriors, meaning it’s a hangover spot whether win or lose.
Portland is 10-1 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games over the last two seasons. New Orleans is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season. The Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Friday games. The Blazers are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 home games. Roll with the Blazers Friday.
|01-18-19||Nets v. Magic +100||117-115||Loss||-100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic PK
The Orlando Magic are quietly playing real well over the past week. They have upset home wins over Boston and Houston, and they lost in overtime at Detroit. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home games, which also includes an upset win over Toronto. I fully expect the Magic to be able to take care of business at home tonight against the Brooklyn Nets.
This is a big-time letdown spot for the Nets. They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over Boston and at Houston. They way they won at Houston makes this a letdown spot. They forced overtime, were trailing by 7 in the extra period, and managed to go on a 10-0 run to win 145-142 over James Harden and company. It’s only human nature to have a letdown off such a big win like that.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Magic are 8-0 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents this season. Take the Magic Friday.
|01-18-19||Maryland v. Ohio State -2.5||Top||75-61||Loss||-110||9 h 37 m||Show|
20* Maryland/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -2.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes come in highly motivated for a victory here tonight. They have lost three straight coming in with two of those on the road. The only home loss came to Michigan State, which has now won 19 straight Big Ten games. It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Buckeyes, who have failed to cover six of their last seven coming in and have dropped out of the Top 25.
It’s also time to ‘sell high’ on the Maryland Terrapins, who have won six straight coming in and are now ranked No. 19 in the country. But they’ve played six of their last eight games at home with their two road wins coming against the likes of Rutgers and Minnesota. Rutgers is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten, and Minnesota just lost to previously winless Illinois by 30-plus.
Ohio State is favored for good reason here despite being the unranked team against the ranked team. Oddsmakers are definitely tipping their hand. It’s worth noting that Ohio State beat Maryland 91-69 at home last year as 5-point favorites. Getting them as only 2.5-point favorites here is a huge value and one of my favorite bets in the Big Ten this season.
The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Ohio State is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games after having lost three of its last four games. The Buckeyes are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after failing to cover four of their last five ATS. Chris Holtmann is 12-3 ATS after playing a game as an underdog in all games he has coached. Holtmann is 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game after 15-plus game as the coach of the Buckeyes. Bet Ohio State Friday.
|01-17-19||Santa Clara +16 v. St. Mary's||55-75||Loss||-107||11 h 29 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +16
The Santa Clara Broncos have been flying under the radar for weeks. They are 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Their two losses came on the road to Gonzaga and BYU, and they easily covered in a 6-point loss at BYU as 13-point dogs.
It’s not like their seven wins have been all against weak competition, either, during this stretch. They beat USC by 10 as 8.5-point dogs, beat Washington State by 8 as 8-point dogs, and topped San Diego by 12 as 6-point dogs. With how well they are playing, they certainly should not be catching 16 points to St. Mary’s.
The Gaels have notoriously competed with Gonzaga for WCC supremacy over the years. But this St. Mary’s team is way down, and it’s probably the worst team that they’ve had under Randy Bennett that I can remember. The Gaels are just 11-7 this season. They have home losses to Harvard and UC-Irvine, and road losses to Western Kentucky, San Francisco and Utah State. Santa Clara is more than capable of hanging with them.
St. Mary’s is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons. The Gaels are 0-7 ATS in home games off a road win by 10 points or more over the last three years. Santa Clara is 7-0 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season. The Broncos are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Roll with Santa Clara Thursday.
|01-17-19||Kings v. Hornets -2||Top||95-114||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2
I love the situation for the Charlotte Hornets tonight. They return home following a tough six-game road trip in which they managed to pull off two upsets at Phoenix and at San Antonio. And now they’ve had two full days to recover and rest.
They have also had extra time to get ready for revenge on Sacramento. The Hornets lost to the Kings on the 5th game of that trip 97-104 on January 12th just five days ago. Well, they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing in Portland the previous night, so it wasn’t a good spot for them. This is a great spot for the Hornets now.
The Hornets are 14-8 at home this season, while the Kings are 9-11 on the road. The Hornets have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven meetings with the Kings. And given the chance at quick revenge here tonight, I fully expect Kemba Walker and company to get the job done at home.
Charlotte is 10-2 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games this season. The Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Sacramento is 16-39-3 ATS in its last 58 games when playing on two days’ rest. Bet the Hornets Thursday.
|01-17-19||76ers v. Pacers -2.5||Top||120-96||Loss||-105||8 h 46 m||Show|
20* 76ers/Pacers TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Indiana -2.5
At 29-14 this season, the Indiana Pacers are legitimately one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. They are just 2.5 games out of first place in the East. But for two full seasons now, this team has not gotten the respect they deserve. And I certainly think this is a cheap price on them as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.
No team is playing better than the Pacers over the past month and a half. The Pacers are 16-4 SU & 12-8 ATS in their last 20 games overall. They come in rested and ready to go tonight as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days with the only other game resulting in a 34-point blowout home win over the Suns.
The 76ers are in a tough spot here. They are coming off an emotional home win over the Minnesota Timberwolves as Jimmy Butler got revenge on his former team. It’s a 76ers team that has been a money burner on the road, going 10-12 SU & 8-14 ATS on the highway this year while losing by 4.6 points per game. The Pacers are 15-5 SU & 11-9 ATS at home, winning by 10.3 points per game on average.
The Pacers are 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the 76ers, including their 113-101 road win over Philadelphia in their last meeting this season. The 76ers are 0-7 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more this season, losing by a whopping 18.9 points per game on average. Take the Pacers Thursday.
|01-16-19||Jazz v. Clippers -1.5||Top||129-109||Loss||-115||25 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -1.5
The Los Angeles Clippers had the best record in the Western Conference through November. But then they went through a rough patch with some injuries in early December. Once Lou Williams came back, they proceeded to go on a 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS run from late December through early January.
But the Clippers have since dropped three straight games, and I expect them to be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday night when they host the Utah Jazz. I think we’re getting good value here with the Clippers as only 1.5-point home favorites because they have lost three straight, while the Jazz have won four straight coming in.
But those four wins for the Jazz came against the Magic, the Lebron-Less Lakers, the Bulls and the Pistons all at home. The wins over the Bulls and Pistons in their last two games came down to the wire, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that the Jazz are playing without their top three point guards in Ricky Rubio, Dante Exum and Raul Neto.
Plays against underdogs who are coming off 3 or more consecutive wins, who win between 51% and 60% of their games playing another winning team are 77-39 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Utah is 15-28 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or less over the last three seasons. I think this is a good time to 'buy low' on the Clippers and 'sell high' on the Jazz tonight. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.
|01-16-19||Alabama v. Missouri +1.5||70-60||Loss||-107||11 h 51 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +1.5
The Missouri Tigers should not be home underdogs to the Alabama Crimson Tide tonight. The Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the SEC as they are 9-5 this season, including 7-2 at home. They were a dog in four of their five losses to Iowa State, K-State, Tennessee and South Carolina, and they were only a 2-point favorite in a 2-point loss to Temple.
The Tigers have certainly been through the gauntlet as they also have impressive wins over Oregon State, UCF, Xavier and Illinois. And now they’ll be highly motivated for their first conference win after losing to Tennessee and at South Carolina to open their SEC slate. This is a game they can handle.
Alabama has only played three true road games this season. They lost at UCF and at LSU, while beating a bad Stephen F. Austin team. UCF is a common opponent, and while Missouri beat UCF, Alabama lost to the Knights.
Missouri is 8-1 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the past three seasons. The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings. Missouri is 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with Alabama. The Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Missouri is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Wednesday games. Roll with Missouri Wednesday.
|01-16-19||Raptors v. Celtics -2||Top||108-117||Win||100||10 h 58 m||Show|
20* Raptors/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston -2
The Boston Celtics come in highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost three straight, but all three came on the road. Now they’re back home with Toronto coming to down on National TV. Look for the Celtics to bounce back in a big way tonight.
The Celtics also have some good injury news as Kyrie Irvin returns to the lineup tonight, and Marcus Smart and Aaron Baynes could both be available as well. The Raptors are missing Jonas Valanciunas, and OG Anunoby, and could be without Fred VanVleet and C.J. Miles.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is a perfect 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings. The home team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. And Boston basically just has to win this game to cover the small 2-point spread.
The Celtics are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 home games overall. Boston is 12-3 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. Toronto is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.
|01-16-19||Indiana State v. Northern Iowa -2||64-69||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -2
The Northern Iowa Panthers played a brutal non-conference schedule that got them ready for MVC play, which will be much easier for them. And that has proven to be the case as they have played well in their first four MVC games.
Indeed, the Panthers are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS while outscoring their four opponents by a combined 13 points. And now they host a team they can certainly handle in Indiana State, which has some ugly conference losses with a 35-point loss at Loyola and a 15-point home loss to Missouri State.
Bradley is the only common opponent of these teams. Northern Iowa won 65-47 at Bradley, while Indiana State only beat Bradley 65-60 at home. Comparing common opponents is a great way to figure out how good teams really are, and we’ll get a lot more comparisons here in the coming weeks with conference play in full swing.
Indiana State is 4-13 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. Northern Iowa is 27-13 ATS in its lsat 40 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK. The Sycamores are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 MVC games. The Panthers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight MVC games. Take Northern Iowa Wednesday.
|01-16-19||Boston College +12 v. Louisville||70-80||Win||100||22 h 36 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +12
I think this is a clearly letdown spot for Louisville. They are coming off a shocking 21-point win at North Carolina as 11-point dogs. And now they are getting a ton of love from oddsmakers as 12-point favorites over Boston College tonight because of that result.
It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Cardinals and ‘buy low’ on Boston College, which is riding a four-game losing streak into play. Two of those losses came by a combined 4 points, and they covered in an 11-point loss at Virginia Tech in a game they led at halftime. Their only blowout defeat came at the hands of Virginia, which is one of only two remaining unbeaten teams in college basketball.
This is a veteran Boston College team with four players scoring 12 or more points per game. Ky Bowman (20.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG) is an absolute stud, and complementing him are Winston Tabbs (14.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG), Nik Popovic (13.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG) and Jordan Chapman (12.1 PPG). They have the horses to hang with Louisville, which will not be 100% focused for this game off their win over UNC.
Plays on road dogs or PK (Boston College) - off three straight conference losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 55-25 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Eagles are 6-0 ATS after having lost four of their last five games over the past three seasons. Jim Christian is 13-2 ATS after having lost four of his last five games as the coach of the Eagles. Take Boston College Wednesday.
|01-15-19||LSU v. Ole Miss -3||83-69||Loss||-115||9 h 31 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -3
What more does Ole Miss have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers? All the Rebels have done is go 13-2 SU & 14-1 ATS under first-year head coach Kermit Davis. And now they are only 3-point home favorites over LSU tonight. Sign me up.
“Kermit Davis is one of the best coaches in our country,” Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl said. “They are terrifically offensively efficient. What he has been able to do was give them a little more discipline offensively. They are valuing possessions more.”
The Rebels are shooting 49.9% from the field, 38.2% from 3-point range and 76.1% on free throws this season. They are averaging 79.8 points per game while recording an assist on 57% of their made baskets. The top three scorers on the team all shoot between 40% and 42% from 3-point range.
LSU has more turnovers (221) than assists (219) this season. That’s going to make it difficult for the Tigers to win consistently on the road in SEC play. I think they’re getting way too much credit for their overtime win at Arkansas last time out against a rebuilding Razorbacks team that lost seven of their top eight scores from a year ago.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings. Ole Miss is 5-1 SU In its last six home meetings with LSU, outscoring the Tigers by an average of 12.2 points per game. The Rebels are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games. The Tigers are 2-8-3 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Rebels are 9-0 ATS as a favorite this season. Roll with Ole Miss Tuesday.
|01-15-19||Wolves +6.5 v. 76ers||Top||107-149||Loss||-110||7 h 37 m||Show|
20* Timberwolves/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +6.5
Jimmy Butler faces his former team in the Minnesota Timberwolves here for the first time tonight. It’s pretty easy to see which team will be more motivated. Butler pushed his way out, thinking the Timberwolves didn’t have the pieces to win a championship. Well, they’ve been just fine without him, and they’ll want to prove that in a big way tonight.
The Timberwolves are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They have been playing with a ton of energy since interim coach Ryan Saunders took over for Tom Thibodeau. And now they’ve had two days’ rest to get ready for the 76ers.
Philadelphia is not playing well enough at all to warrant being this big of a favorite. The 76ers are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They lost by 17 as 3.5-point road favorites at Washington, were upset at home by Atlanta as 10.5-point favorites, and barely escaped with a 3-point win at New York as 9-point favorites.
Plays against home teams (Philadelphia) - in a game involving two average teams (-3/+3 PPG differential) after 42 or more games, off a close win by 3 points or less are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. The Timberwolves are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 gams vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.
|01-15-19||Kentucky v. Georgia +8.5||Top||69-49||Loss||-109||6 h 57 m||Show|
20* Kentucky/Georgia ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia +8.5
Tom Crean has the Georgia Bulldogs playing some great basketball here of late. They have been greatly undervalued, as evidenced by the fact that the Bulldogs are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.
Two of their three losses during this stretch came against arguably the two best teams in the conference in Tennessee and Auburn, both on the road. The other was a 2-point home loss as 3-point dogs to Arizona State. The Bulldogs are now 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS at home this season.
Kentucky is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season. The Wildcats have been way overvalued in recent weeks as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They lost at Alabama as 5-point favorites, failed to cover in an 11-point home win over Texas A&M as 14.5-point favorites, and also didn’t cover in a 9-point home win over Vanderbilt as 13-point favorites. Georgia just beat Vanderbilt by 19 in its last home game.
The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS after allowing 85 points or more over the last three seasons. Georgia is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Georgia. Take Georgia Tuesday.
|01-14-19||Pelicans v. Clippers -2.5||121-117||Loss||-104||11 h 2 m||Show|
15* Pelicans/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5
The Los Angeles Clippers come in highly motivated for a victory. They have lost two straight, which put to a halt a great run they were on in going 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 games. I expect them to start a new winning streak with a win and cover at home over the Pelicans tonight.
The Clippers have held serve on their home court this year, going 14-7 SU & 13-8 ATS in their 21 games in Los Angeles. The Pelicans have really struggled on the road, going 5-17 SU & 8-14 ATS in their 22 games away from New Orleans.
New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games this season. The Pelicans are 3-13 ATS off a road loss this season. The Clippers are 17-7 ATS as favorites this season. New Orleans is 1-14 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 36% or more of their attempts this season. Take the Clippers Monday.
|01-14-19||Blazers v. Kings -2.5||Top||107-115||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5
The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA. They currently sit at 22-21 and have been playing some of their best basketball here of late. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They haven’t lost a game by double-digits in any of their last 12 games, so they have been competitive night in and night out.
I love the situation for the Kings tonight. They are rested after having yesterday off. The Kings play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA, so they will certainly test the tired legs of the Portland Trail Blazers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a loss in altitude in Denver last night. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight.
Plays on favorites (Sacramento) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Sacramento is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games when playing on one days’ rest. The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Monday games. Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games. Bet the Kings Monday.
|01-14-19||Florida State v. Pittsburgh +6||Top||62-75||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh +6
I fully expect Florida State to let Duke beat them twice tonight. The Seminoles lost a heartbreaker at the buzzer to the Blue Devils on Saturday, 78-80 at home. They will suffer a hangover from that defeat against the No. 1 ranked team in the country. I don’t expect them to show up at all tonight at Pittsburgh.
This Florida State team has been overrated all season. The Seminoles are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They have narrow home wins over Purdue (by 1) and Miami (by 6), as well as a narrow win over LSU (by 3) on a neutral. They lost to Villanova (by 6) on a neutral, and lost by 13 at Virginia. They are 0-2 ATS in their two true road games this season.
Conversely, Pitt has been underrated all season and remains underrated tonight. The Panthers are 11-5 SU & 11-4 ATS this season. They upset Louisville at home and only lost by 6 at NC State as 11-point dogs in their last two ACC games coming in. Jeff Capel is doing a tremendous job in his first season on the job in returning the Panthers to relevance.
Pitt is 8-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Florida State is 0-8 ATS as a road favorite or PK over the last three seasons. The Seminoles are actually losing by 5.5 points per game in this spot. The Seminoles are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 ACC games. The Panthers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Pittsburgh Monday.
|01-14-19||Nebraska v. Indiana -2||66-51||Loss||-100||6 h 26 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2
The Indiana Hoosiers come in highly motivated for a victory tonight off back-to-back tough road losses at Michigan and at Maryland, two of the best teams in the Big Ten. They should be able to get back in the win column at home tonight against the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
The magic in Bloomington is back under Archie Miller. The Hoosiers have gone 10-0 at home this season, outscoring their opponents by a whopping 21.9 points per game. They have beaten the likes of Marquette, Northwestern, Louisville and Illinois at home this season.
The secret is out on Nebraska. They were covering machines last year, and they opened this season as covering machines again by going 9-2-1 ATS in their first 12 lined games. But they have been getting too much respect from the books of late now, going 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games. They lost at Maryland by 2 as 2-point dogs, lost at Iowa by 9 as 2-point favorites, and failed to cover as 10.5-point favorites in a 6-point home win over lowly Penn State. The Huskers are 1-3 in true road games this season with their only win coming by 2 points over Clemson.
Indiana is 6-0 ATS at home when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Hoosiers are 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. Indiana is 7-0 ATS in home games off three consecutive conference games over the last two seasons. The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS off a road loss to a conference foe over the last two years. These four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Hoosiers tonight. Bet Indiana Monday.
|01-13-19||Northwestern +12.5 v. Michigan||Top||60-80||Loss||-115||9 h 58 m||Show|
20* Northwestern/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +12.5
I love the situation for the Northwestern Wildcats tonight. They will be out for revenge from their 60-62 home loss to Michigan as 5-point underdogs back on December 4th. Now they are catching a whopping 12.5 points on the road in the rematch.
Michigan could not possibly be more overvalued right now. It is one of two remaining unbeaten teams at 16-0 alongside Virginia. With that perfect record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very hard to live up to. The Wolverines had failed to cover five straight prior to three straight covers, but those three have come by a combined 5.5 points, so they’ve been very fortunate.
This series has been a nail biter in recent meetings. Indeed, each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 11 points or fewer, making for a perfect 8-0 system pertaining to this 12.5-point spread. Five of those eight were decided by 4 points or less, and two went into overtime.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Northwestern) - off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a home favorite against a team that’s off a road win against a conference opponent are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Northwestern Sunday.
|01-13-19||Bucks v. Hawks +10||133-114||Loss||-110||5 h 4 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Hawks +10
The Atlanta Hawks want to avenge one of their worst losses of the season to the Milwaukee Bucks just over a week ago. They lost 112-144 at Milwaukee as 13.5-point dogs on January 4th. Now they are catching 10 points at home in the rematch, and I expect a much better effort from them.
The Hawks have played a lot better since that defeat. They are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They blasted the Heat 106-82 as 6.5-point home dogs in their only home game during this stretch. They only lost by 3 at Toronto as 13.5-point dogs, and upset the 76ers by 2 as 10.5-point road dogs. Their only non-cover came on the 2nd of a back-to-back.
The Bucks are dealing with a ton of injuries right now. Giannis missed last game with a hip injury, and although he’s supposed to return tonight, I expect the Bucks to be cautious with him. Eric Bledsoe is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Hawks get Taurean Prince back from injury and Jeremy Lin is probable as well. Prince (15.0 PPG) has missed the last 18 games with an ankle injury.
Milwaukee is 1-11 ATS vs. teams who allow 110-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons. The Bucks are 25-48 ATS in their last 73 games as a favorite of 10 or more points. Plays on underdogs (Atlanta) - revenging a same-season loss, off a huge upset win as a road dog of 10 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Hawks Sunday.
|01-13-19||Chargers +4.5 v. Patriots||28-41||Loss||-109||146 h 22 m||Show|
15* Chargers/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +4.5
You’re going to hear a lot about the past history of the Patriots leading up to this game. How they rarely lose at home in the playoffs, especially after a first-round bye. And how Tom Brady is 7-0 against Philip Rivers in head-to-head matchups. No question I factored in those stats as well, but I keep coming back to the fact that these aren’t the same old Patriots, and these aren’t the same old Chargers.
The Patriots are vulnerable. They went 11-5, but when you consider they went 5-1 against the terrible AFC East to pad their stats, well they were only 6-4 against all other teams. They feasted on a weak schedule this season. Their defense ranks 21st in the league, and their offense hasn’t been nearly as explosive after losing Josh Gordon, and with Rob Gronkowski clearly just a shell of his former self.
This is easily the best team that Philip Rivers has ever had with the Chargers. Think about this for a second. If not for a botched loss to the Broncos with poor clock management down the stretch, the Chargers would be your No. 1 seed in the AFC. They went 12-4, just like the Chiefs, yet the Chiefs are being treated as the superior team. I don’t believe that to be the case. And the Chiefs went into New England and lost on a last-second field goal earlier this season, and that was when the Chiefs were hitting on all cylinders before fading here down the stretch.
Rivers is loaded with weapons on offense with the likes of Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. And the defense has been one of the best in the league since getting Joey Bosa back from injury. The Chargers give up just 20.4 points per game and 327.5 yards per game this season, ranking 9th in total defense. They have allowed 23 or fewer points in 11 of their last 13 games overall with the only exceptions behind the 28 they gave up at Kansas City and the 30 they allowed at Pittsburgh, two games they actually won outright as underdogs. They are allowing just 17.3 points per game in their last 11 games.
The tougher the situation, the better the Chargers play. That’s why I’m not concerned about all the travel talk and this being their 3rd straight road games. They thrive on the road. Indeed, the Chargers are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS on the road this season. Their only loss came at the Rams early in the season. They have beaten the likes of Seattle, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Baltimore on the road this year, four playoff teams. And they certainly won’t be phased by having to go into New England this weekend.
The Chargers are also expected to get NT Brandon Mebane and TE Hunter Henry back from injury this week, and C Mike Pouncey has been given the green light. This just feels like a changing of the guard-type game as Rivers is on a mission to get that elusive Lombardi Trophy, and he finally has the team that can dethrone New England in the AFC.
Philip Rivers is 21-7 ATS in his last 28 games as a road underdog of 4 points or more, including 16-3 ATS since 2012. Bill Belichick is only 2-10 ATS in home games when playing with two or more weeks’ rest as the coach of New England. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six playoff road games, and 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 road games overall. Underdogs are 14-1 ATS since the start of last year's playoffs. Roll with the Chargers Sunday.
|01-12-19||Hornets v. Kings -5||97-104||Win||100||20 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -5
The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. They enter play Saturday at 21-21 and in the thick of the playoff race in the Western Conference. Even when they lose games, they are competitive now.
That’s evident by the fact that their last six losses have all come by single-digits, and they have come against the likes of the Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Warriors and Suns. Five of those six teams are playoff squads in the Western Conference. They had a chance to win all six of those games in the closing minutes.
The Charlotte Hornets are really struggling right now. They are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall. They are coming off a 96-127 loss in Portland last night, making this the 2nd of a back-to-back for them. They are now just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last six road games, losing four times by 13 points or more. They will now be playing their 5th consecutive road game as they continue this brutal six-game trip.
The Kings will certainly test the Hornets’ tired legs as they play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA. The Hornets are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Charlotte is 6-21-1 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss by more than 10 points. The Kings are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents, including a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division foes. Roll with the Kings Saturday.
|01-12-19||Cowboys +7 v. Rams||Top||22-30||Loss||-108||130 h 32 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Rams NFC No-Brainer on Dallas +7
The Dallas Cowboys are getting zero respect from oddsmakers as touchdown underdogs to the Los Angeles Rams this week. But, that has been the case for this team for weeks. The Cowboys have gone 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Their only loss came at Indianapolis in a huge letdown spot after beating the Eagles in OT the previous week, which essentially decided the NFC East title.
The Rams have feasted on bad competition, but they haven’t been good against the league’s best. Six of the Rams’ last 10 wins came by 7 points or less. The only four that came by more were against the 49ers (twice), Cardinals and Lions, three of the worst teams in the NFL. When the Rams have stepped up in class, like they will be here, they have not fared well.
Indeed, the Rams are 0-5-2 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record this season. They pushed in a 7-point win against the Vikings and pushed in a 3-point win against the Chiefs. They lost outright by 9 as 3-point favorites against Chicago, lost outright by 10 as 2.5-point favorites at New Orleans, and lost outright at home as 13.5-point favorites over the Eagles. They also only beat Seattle by 5 as 9.5-point home favorites and Seattle by 2 as 7-point road favorites. If Seattle can hang with them twice, Dallas certainly can after dominating the Seahawks last week until a garbage TD in the final seconds that turned a 24-14 game into a 24-22 one.
The Cowboys have taken off on offense since trading for Amari Cooper. They have scored at least 22 points in seven of their last nine games overall. They have a great rushing attack that has produced 94-plus yards in 13 of 17 games this season. They average 4.5 per carry as a team, and they rushed for 164 yards on the Seahawks last week.
That makes this a bad matchup for a Rams defense that hasn’t been nearly as good as advertised. The Rams have allowed 27-plus points in six of their last nine games overall. Their biggest problem is stopping the run as the Rams rank dead last in allowing 5.1 yards per carry this season. Zeke should be able to have a big game here, which will allow the Cowboys to control time of possession and keep Jared Goff and company off the field.
The Rams have not been nearly as effective on offense since losing Cooper Kupp to a season-ending injury. He was Goff’s favorite target on third down. And now Goff will be up against one of the best defenses he has faced this season. The Cowboys rank 7th in total defense, giving up 329.2 yards per game this season. They are 6th in scoring defense (20.2 points/game) and 8th in yards per play (5.4) allowed.
Todd Gurley has been banged up down the stretch, and that has also hurt the Rams’ offense. They don’t have a very good offensive line, and it has been exposed. I expect the Cowboys to win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. They will be able to slow down Gurley thanks to a run defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in giving up just 94.6 rushing yards per game, and 4th in yards per carry (3.8) allowed.
Dallas is 9-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in road games vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons. Dallas is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 games played on a grass field. The Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games. Underdogs are 14-1 ATS since the start of last year's playoffs.
The Rams just don’t have much of a home-field advantage at all in Los Angeles. They were knocked out of the playoffs last year with a home loss to the Falcons. The Cowboys could easily have nearly 50% of the fans in attendance, making it feel like a home game for them. Dallas will give them a run for their money here, possibly pulling off the upset. Take the Cowboys Saturday.
|01-12-19||Pelicans +2 v. Wolves||106-110||Loss||-105||18 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +2
This is a very tough spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their home loss to the Dallas Mavericks last night. And now they have to play the Pelicans, who will test their tired legs as they play at the 6th-fastest pace in the NBA.
That pace has gotten even faster since getting starting PG Elfrid Payton back from injury. The Pelicans also get Nikola Mirotic back from injury, and now they are as healthy as they’ve been all season. This is going to be a dangerous team moving forward, and that has already started to show as the Pelicans are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins by 35, 19 and 16 points.
The Pelicans, conversely, are well-rested and ready to go tonight. They will be playing on two days’ rest, and this will also be just their 4th game in 10 days. It will be the 8th game in 14 days for the Timberwolves for comparison’s sake, so it’s easy to see them starting to wear down now.
New Orleans is 27-13 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on two days rest. New Orleans is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games following a win by more than 10 points. The Timberwolves are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest. Roll with the Pelicans Saturday.
|01-12-19||Georgia Tech +10 v. Syracuse||Top||73-59||Win||100||16 h 6 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Tech +10
I think Syracuse is starting to become overvalued after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Those four wins came against Arkansas State, St. Bonaventure, Notre Dame and Clemson. All four of those teams are down this season from previous years. It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Orange.
I just don’t like the spot for Syracuse. In the back of their minds, they know they have their biggest game of the season on deck at Duke on Monday night. I can’t help but think they are going to be looking ahead to that huge showdown.
Georgia Tech has been impressive this season, especially of late. They are 4-0 ATS in all road games this season, only losing by 13 at Tennessee as 15.5-point dogs, losing by 6 at Northwestern as 8-point dogs, winning at Arkansas outright by 4 as 9-point dogs, and only losing to St. John’s by 3 as 3.5-point dogs on a neutral. They also only lost by 3 to Virginia Tech as 7-point home dogs last time out. They’ve shown they can hang with some of the best teams in the country, and Syracuse certainly is just mediocre.
Georgia Tech clearly causes Syracuse trouble as evidenced by their dominance against the spread in this series. Indeed, the Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Syracuse with three outright upsets. Georgia Tech is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. The Yellow Jackets are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Syracuse is 0-6 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.
|01-12-19||Colts +6 v. Chiefs||Top||13-31||Loss||-114||126 h 52 m||Show|
25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts +6
We have two teams headed in opposite directions here. The Indianapolis Colts are the hottest team in the NFL, and it’s not even close. The Kansas City Chiefs certainly faded down the stretch from a point spread perspective and have had trouble living up to their massive expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public.
Following a 1-5 start, the Colts have gone 10-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They have the best point differential in the entire NFL over these 11 games, which is the sign of an elite team. They have outscored their last 11 opponents by a total of 131 points, or by an average of 11.9 points per game. Another sign of an elite team is the fact that the Colts have outgained 10 of their last 11 opponents as well, so there has been nothing fluky about this run.
Andrew Luck is playing very well, with his 32-to-1 TD/INT ratio in the red zone what stands out most. He’s clearly back and playing better than ever. Getting a healthy Marlon Mack back at running back has also been key to their success. Mack has rushed for 119-plus yards in three of his last five games. T.Y. Hilton remains explosive, and tight end Eric Ebron leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns. Plus, the offensive line is playing well, giving up the fewest sacks of any offensive line this season.
But the biggest reason for the turnaround by the Colts is their defense. They have allowed just 14.0 points per game in their last eight games overall. That makes them the best scoring defense in the NFL during this stretch. It’s a defense that features two rookies who received All-Pro honors. And all those draft picks the Colts have been spending on defense are really paying off now.
No question the Chiefs have had the best offense in the NFL this season, but they also have the 31st-ranked defense in giving up 405.5 yards per game this season. They rank 32nd in DVOA against the run. They are also 31st in giving up 5.0 yards per carry. Mack and the Colts are going to have their way on the ground against the Chiefs in this game, and their defense is good enough to slow down Mahomes and company.
The Chiefs are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They have outright losses to the Rams, Chargers and Seahawks during this stretch. Once they lost Kareem Hunt, they clearly weren’t as explosive on offense. And they have also been playing without Sammy Watkins, who is questionable to return. Kansas City’s defense has also allowed 30.2 points per game in its last six games overall. That’s very concerning considering the weather has gotten colder and it has been more difficult for most offenses to put points on the board. That hasn’t been the case against the Chiefs down the stretch, and all season really.
Andy Reid is just 1-7 SU in its last eight playoff games as he has consistently underachieved in the postseason. This will be the first career playoff start for Mahomes, and it did not go well for the other three first-time starters last week in Lamar Jackson, Mitch Trubisky and DeSean Watson. In fact, the last 23 first-time starting QB’s in the playoffs have gone just 3-19-1 ATS. Fading these first-time starters has been a huge money maker over the years.
Kansas City is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 playoff games. Underdogs are 14-1 ATS in the playoffs since the start of last year’s postseason, going a perfect 4-0 ATS last week. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six playoff home games. Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Kansas City.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Indianapolis) - a good passing team with a completion percentage of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per attempt in four straight games are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Colts Saturday.
|01-12-19||TCU v. Oklahoma -3.5||Top||74-76||Loss||-110||12 h 6 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -3.5
Oklahoma comes into this game highly motivated for a victory after losing two of its last three coming in. Those losses were understandable as they both came on the road against arguably the two best teams in the Big 12 in Kansas (by 7) and Texas Tech (by 7). They were in both of those games in the closing seconds with a chance to win.
Oklahoma is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.5 points per game. They have beaten Oklahoma State by 10, Creighton by 13, USC by 11 and Wichita State by 32 at home. They also beat Wofford by 11 and North Texas by 16, two small conference schools that are actually very good. So they’ve beaten all six opponents by double-digits at home this year.
What really stands out to me about his game is that Oklahoma has played the 2nd-toughest schedule in the country, while TCU has only played the 130th-toughest. So I think TCU is being overvalued due to its 12-2 record, but they’ve only played two true road games, winning a close one at SMU and losing by 9 at Kansas. Oklahoma also gets an extra day to prepare after playing on Tuesday, while TCU played Kansas on Wednesday. And after facing the Jayhawks and losing to them on the road, this easily could be a hangover spot for the Horned Frogs.
Oklahoma is 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with TCU, winning those seven games by 15 points per game on average. All seven wins have come by at least 5 points. The Sooners are 9-0 ATS as favorites this season. Oklahoma is 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Sooners are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Take Oklahoma Saturday.
|01-12-19||Texas Tech v. Texas +1||Top||68-62||Loss||-105||12 h 6 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas +1
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after their 14-1 start to the season. It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Red Raiders as they are now road favorites at Texas when they shouldn’t be Saturday.
Texas Tech has opened 3-0 in Big 12 play, but all three games weren’t decided until the final seconds. They won by 3 at West Virginia as 4.5-point favorites, won by 6 over Kansas State as 11.5-point favorites, and won by 7 at home over Oklahoma as 7-point favorites in a game they were never even close to covering until the final seconds. And being overvalued has shown as the Red Raiders are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
Texas will come into this game highly motivated for a victory after an upset loss at Oklahoma State last time out. That followed up two solid performances to open Big 12 play with a 20-point win at Kansas State and a 7-point home win over West Virginia. Now the Longhorns are back home here where they simply don’t lose to Texas Tech.
Indeed, Texas is 21-0 SU in its last 21 home meetings with Texas Tech dating back to 1992, which is as far back as I could find. So the streak could be even longer. But we’ll use that streak for betting and package purposes today. Simply put, the Longhorns should not be underdogs in this matchup. Bet Texas Saturday.
|01-12-19||VCU v. Davidson -2.5||57-64||Win||100||12 h 5 m||Show|
15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson -2.5
The Davidson Wildcats are loaded once again this season. They are off to an 11-4 start with their only losses all coming on the road to Purdue, Temple, Wake Forest and UNC. But they have handled their business at home and have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.
The Wildcats are 7-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per game on the season. VCU is 1-2 in true road games this season and will have its hands full here against the Wildcats. I think Davidson is showing tremendous value as only 2.5-point home favorites today in a game they basically just have to win to cover.
VCU comes in getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers for its four-game winning streak and identical 11-4 record. But those four wins have come against Wichita State, Rider, Fordham and La Salle, not exactly a gauntlet. This will be one for their stiffest tests of the season here Saturday.
Davidson is 9-1 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 70-38 ATS in their last 108 games when the line is +3 to -3. Davidson is 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons, winning by 21.3 points per game on average. The Wildcats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Atlantic 10 opponents. Take Davidson Saturday.
|01-12-19||Oklahoma State v. West Virginia -5.5||85-77||Loss||-108||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -5.5
The West Virginia Mountaineers come into this game against Oklahoma State Saturday highly motivated for a victory. They have opened 0-3 in Big 12 play, but could easily be 3-0 as their three losses have come by 3 to Texas Tech, by 7 at Texas and by 2 at Kansas State. They finally get a team they can handle here in Oklahoma State.
Indeed, the Cowboys are the worst team in the Big 12, period. They are just 7-8 this season with very few quality wins other than their upset home victory over Texas last week. I think they will be feeling fat and happy after winning their first Big 12 game in upset fashion. The Mountaineers will clearly want this game more, and this is a scary team when they are motivated.
Plays on home teams (WVU) - off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. Oklahoma State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win. West Virginia is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss. The Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in their last six Big 12 games. Bet West Virginia Saturday.
|01-11-19||Purdue v. Wisconsin -2.5||84-80||Loss||-109||10 h 20 m||Show|
15* Purdue/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin -2.5
I believe we are getting the Wisconsin Badgers at a very cheap price Friday night at home against the Purdue Boilermakers. The Badgers are a veteran team that returned five starters this season, while the Boilermakers are in rebuilding mode with just one returning starters.
That has come to fruition as the Badgers are 11-4 this season. Their four losses have come to Marquette, Virginia, Minnesota and Western Kentucky with three of those on the road. They’ve also beaten Penn State by 21 on the road, Iowa by 6 on the road, Oklahoma by 20 on the road, Xavier by 9 on the road, and NC State by 4 at home. They have been through the gauntlet.
Purdue is just 9-6 this season, and its inexperience is starting to show. It is really showing on the road as the Boilermakers are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season. They have also lost to Virginia Tech and Notre Dame on a neutral.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Wisconsin upset Purdue 57-53 at home as 11-point dogs last season. The Badgers are 8-1 ATS off four straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons. Wisconsin is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. Big Ten opponents. Purdue is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. Big Ten foes. Roll with Wisconsin Friday.
|01-11-19||Mavs v. Wolves -4.5||119-115||Loss||-109||10 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5
Two teams with huge home/road splits square off in Minnesota tonight. The Timberwolves have certainly been taking care of their home court this season, going 14-6 SU & 13-7 ATS in Minnesota. Dallas has been awful on the road, going 3-18 SU.
The Timberwolves are playing some great basketball coming into this game. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning by 17 over Orlando and by 22 over the Lakers, both at home. They also went on the road and upset the Thunder as 8.5-point dogs. Yet, they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers here as only 4.5-point home favorites.
The Mavericks are not playing well, going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games with their only win coming at home against Phoenix, which has the worst record in the Western Conference. They lost by 21 at Boston and by 10 at home to the Lakers. They were down 15-plus in the 4th quarter against the 76ers but only lost by 6. The Mavs are just 4-11 SU in their last 15 games overall.
Minnesota is a perfect 10-0 ATS in January home games over the last two seasons. They are outscoring the opposition by a whopping 16.6 points pre game in these January home games. The favorite is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take the Timberwolves Friday.
|01-11-19||Pacers v. Knicks +9||Top||121-106||Loss||-100||9 h 2 m||Show|
20* Pacers/Knicks ESPN No-Brainer on New York +9
The Knicks have already lost twice to the Pacers this season, so they’ll be playing with double revenge. They lost by 6 at home and by 11 on the road, so they were competitive in both games. And now they are catching 9 points at home tonight, which is simply too much.
The Knicks should be motivated not only for revenge, but also because this is a National TV game on ESPN, and they are rarely on National TV. They also come in on two days’ rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go. I expect one of their best efforts of the season tonight.
The Pacers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. They will also be playing their 5th straight road game, and in their 5th different city in 8 days. It’s a brutal scheduling spot for them. It’s worth noting that two of their best players are questionable to play tonight in Myles Turner (shoulder) and Darren Collison (leg).
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings. The Knicks are 3-1 SU in their last four home meetings with the Pacers with their only loss coming by 6 points. The home team is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings, and Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to New York. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. New York is 36-17 ATS in its last 54 Friday games. Bet the Knicks Friday.
|01-10-19||Pistons v. Kings -5||102-112||Win||100||10 h 16 m||Show|
15* Pistons/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -5
It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Sacramento Kings tonight. They have gone just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. But all six losses came by single-digits as they were in every game with a chance to win in the 4th quarter. And five of the losses have come against playoff teams in the Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets and Warriors.
Now the Kings get a team they can handle tonight in the Detroit Pistons, who are 4-15 SU & 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall. It’s a tired Detroit team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 10 days after a 100-113 road loss to the Lebron-less Lakers last night. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Kings, who play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA and will test their tired legs tonight.
Sacramento is 15-6 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. The Kings are 12-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season. Sacramento is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. Roll with the Kings Thursday.
|01-10-19||Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 224||Top||147-154||Loss||-102||10 h 46 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Spurs TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 224
The books have set the number way too high tonight in this battle between the Thunder and Spurs Thursday night. These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and when they get together it’s usually a defensive battle as we take a look at the recent series history.
The Thunder rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 100.4 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs will control the tempo at home tonight, and they rank 25th in pace at 100.2 possessions per game. And a big reason for the Spurs’ recent surge that has seen them go 13-4 in their last 17 games has been defense. The Spurs have allowed 98 or fewer points in nine of their last 16 games. They are giving up just 103.6 points per game at home this season.
The Spurs and Thunder have combined for 221 or fewer points in 25 straight meetings. That makes for a perfect 25-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 224. More recently, they’ve combined for 205 or fewer points in each fo their last seven meetings, and the UNDER has gone 6-1. They have averaged just 196.1 combined points per game in their last seven meetings, which is a whopping 28 points less than tonight’s posted total of 224. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|01-10-19||Clippers +6 v. Nuggets||100-121||Loss||-105||10 h 52 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Nuggets Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +6
As long as Lou Williams has been healthy and in the lineup, the Clippers have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season. They got off to the best record in the West after about a month with him, then he got hurt and they struggled for a few weeks. But he returned from injury, and the Clippers have gone 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their 10 games since. Each of their last six wins have come by 9 points or more.
The Denver Nuggets are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers. They have simply been fortunate in close games this season, which is why they are 27-12. They are only outscoring the opposition by 5.0 points per game on the season. It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Nuggets while they have the best record in the Western Conference. They have gone just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall as they haven’t been able to meet the massive expectations they’ve set for themselves.
The Clippers are 12-3 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons. Los Angeles is 8-0 ATS in its last eight when its opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents. Take the Clippers Thursday.
|01-10-19||Michigan v. Illinois +9.5||79-69||Loss||-110||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois +9.5
The Illinois Fighting Illini will relish the opportunity to face the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines at home tonight. It will be a great atmosphere in Champaign tonight, and I fully expect one of the best efforts of the season tonight from the Fighting Illini.
It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Wolverines, who are one of the only remaining unbeaten teams in the country at 15-0 this season. The betting public sees that 15-0 record and automatically bets Michigan, which forces oddsmakers to shade the line towards Michigan. We saw 15-0 Houston lose last night, and don’t be surprised if 15-0 Michigan goes down tonight. But we don’t even need Illinois to win, we just need them to stay within 9.5 points.
I’ve been impressed with Illinois in its last two Big Ten games coming in. They only lost by 8 as 11-point dogs at Indiana, and by 2 as 7.5-point dogs at Northwestern. Well, Michigan only won by 2 as 5-point favorites at Northwestern. And the Wolverines have only played two true road games this season. The odds are starting to catch up with the Wolverines as they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall, with their two covers coming by just 2 points each.
The betting public wants nothing to do with this 4-11 Illinois team, which is why it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them. But they have faced a brutal schedule with nine of their 15 games on the road. They are 4-2 at home this season with their two losses coming by 8 and 2 points. They have beaten Evansville by 39 as 16-point favorites and E. Tennessee State by 18 as 6.5-point favorites. They also beat UNLV at home.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 26-10-1 ATS in the last 37 meetings. Illinois is 13-4 SU & 10-7 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Michigan. The Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games off three or more consecutive home games. Bet Illinois Thursday.
|01-10-19||Cincinnati v. Tulsa +7.5||70-65||Win||100||7 h 24 m||Show|
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +7.5
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane just aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers, especially when they’re at home. The Golden Hurricane have gone 11-4 this season with all four of their losses coming on the road to Houston, Utah, Nevada and Southern Illinois. They were competitive in all but one of those games, too.
Tulsa is a perfect 9-0 at home this season. They have upset home wins over both Oklahoma State as 2-point dogs and Kansas State as 6.5-point dogs, two Power 5 teams from the Big 12. And now they will give Cincinnati a run for its money tonight.
The Bearcats aren’t nearly as strong as they have been in years’ past. They have gone just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games this season with their only win coming 65-61 as 7-point favorites at UNLV, failing to cover. They also lost 59-70 as 2.5-point dogs at Mississippi State and 71-73 as 17.5-point favorites in a shocking upset loss at East Carolina. This team clearly has some problems on the road.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Tulsa only lost 55-57 as 9.5-point dogs and won 70-68 as 1.5-point favorites in its last two home meetings with Cincinnati. And this is the best Tulsa team that head coach Frank Haith has had yet, while it’s one of the worst Cincinnati teams that had coach Mick Cronin has had in recent memory.
Tulsa is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last three seasons. The Golden Hurricane are 21-9 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons. Tulsa is 19-9 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three years. The Bearcats are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take Tulsa Thursday.
|01-09-19||Bulls +9.5 v. Blazers||112-124||Loss||-103||11 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +9.5
The Bulls are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season. It’s no surprise that they are starting to cover some spreads and be more competitive. Indeed, the Bulls are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall coming into this showdown with the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. They are well-rested and ready to go playing on two days’ rest as well.
The Bulls have been doing their best work on the road of late. Chicago is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. That includes outright upsets at San Antonio 98-93 as 9-point dogs, at Cleveland 112-92 as 1-point dogs and at Washington 101-92 as 4.5-point dogs. They also gave the Raptors are run for their money in a 89-95 loss at 10.5-point dogs.
Portland will be playing its 4th game in 6 days tonight. The Blazers are starting to get bored playing five of their last six games at home. They failed to cover as 11.5-point favorites against the Knicks in their last home game, and I think they won’t be exactly excited to play the Bulls tonight, either.
Chicago is 13-3 ATS in road games with a total of 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons. The Bulls are 19-8 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last three years. The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Plays against home favorites (Portland) - who score 102 or more points pre game against a team that scores 98-102 PPG, after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games are 71-34 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Bulls Wednesday.
|01-09-19||TCU v. Kansas -5||68-77||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
15* TCU/Kansas ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -5
It’s safe to say the Kansas Jayhawks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They are coming off just their second loss of the season, and one of their worst losses in recent memory. They lost 60-77 at Iowa State over the weekend and committed a season-high 24 turnovers to basically give the game away.
“The thing that is good about getting beat rather than getting edged,” said Kansas head coach Bill Self, “is it’s very evident we have deficiencies and they need to be worked on.” It’s also safe to say the Jayhawks will have had a couple of very productive practices Monday and Tuesday leading up to this game.
TCU is overvalued right now due to its 12-1 start this season and the fact that the Horned Frogs have covered eight of their last nine spreads coming in. To only be catching 5 points at Kansas is showing how much respect the Horned Frogs are getting right now. And they have feasted on a very weak schedule with only one true road game thus far, and even their neutral court games have been against soft competition.
Kansas has already been through the gauntlet and is battle-tested heading into the Big 12. Sagarin has Kansas as playing the toughest schedule in the country thus far. They have already faced the likes of Michigan State, Marquette, Tennessee, Villanova, Arizona State, Oklahoma and Iowa State.
TCU has played the 151st-ranked schedule. They have only faced one team in the Top 50, while Kansas has already faced six teams in the Top 25 of Sagarin’s ratings, going 5-1 against them. KenPom has Kansas as playing the 3rd-toughest schedule, with TCU 186th. So both show Kansas with a massive advantage in strength of schedule thus far.
Kansas is 14-3 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons. The Jayhawks are 41-24 ATS in their last 65 games following a road loss. Self is 14-3 ATS in home games after scoring 60 points or less in all games he has coached. The Jayhawks are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 games following a loss. Take Kansas Wednesday.
|01-09-19||Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 205.5||Top||86-96||Win||100||8 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 205.5
I like taking the UNDER in games between teams who just recently played each other. They become familiar with one another, and it favors the defenses. The Spurs just beat the Grizzlies 108-88 at home on Saturday, January 5th for 196 combined points. It was one of many low-scoring battles in this series recently.
Indeed, the Spurs and Grizzlies have combined for 199 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings overall. They have averaged 195.1 combined points per game in their last seven meetings, so we are essentially getting 10-plus points of value on the UNDER on this 205.5-point total.
Some things in the NBA change, but the Grizzlies stay the same. They are a team that relies on defense to win games. The Grizzlies are 30th in the NBA in pace at 97.6 possessions per game. The Spurs are 25th at 100.3 possessions per game, so these are two of the slowest teams in the NBA. Memphis is also 27th in offensive efficiency, but 6th in defensive efficiency.
The Grizzlies have been held to 107 or fewer points in 19 consecutive games, including 99 or fewer in 14 of those 19. Memphis is 16-4 UNDER off a road game this season. The UNDER is 8-3 in Grizzlies last 11 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|01-09-19||76ers v. Wizards UNDER 229||106-123||Push||0||8 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Wizards UNDER 229
I always like backing the UNDER in the second game of these home-and-home situations. The 76ers just beat the Wizards 132-115 at home last night. Now they will be playing in Washington in a 2nd of a back-to-back situation or both teams. Both will be tired, and this fatigue plus the familiarity favors the UNDER.
That 247-point outburst was a rarity between these teams as both shots lights out from the field with the 76ers hitting 55.7% and the Wizards 50%. Each of the previous three meetings between these teams saw 221 or fewer combined points and averaged just 213.7 combined points. I think we are getting a ton of value on the UNDER 229 in this game tonight.
Washington is 19-9 UNDER after scoring 105 points or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 5-1 in Wizards last six following a loss by more than 10 points. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|01-09-19||Ohio State -5 v. Rutgers||Top||61-64||Loss||-111||8 h 32 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -5
The Ohio State Buckeyes should come back highly motivated for a victory tonight after blowing a big lead against Michigan State at home over the weekend. Head coach Chris Holtmann was not happy with their effort in the second half, and I expect his players to respond in a big way tonight.
“We’re certainly not there yet,” Holtmann said afterward. “You let a team shoot 76 percent on your home floor and score 50 points in the second half, then you’ve got a long ways to go. That’s a fact for us.”
Now the Buckeyes get to take out their frustration on Big Ten bottom feeder Rutgers tonight. The Scarlet Knights have lost five of their past seven games overall with their only two wins coming at home against Maine and Columbia. They lost by 11 at home to Michigan State and by 14 at home to Maryland, and they only beat Columbia by 3 as 11-point favorites.
Ohio State certainly did not take Rutgers lightly in their two meetings last season. The Buckeyes won 68-46 as basically identical 6-point road favorites last year. And they came back and won 79-52 as 14.5-point home favorites in their second meeting. Given those two results, and the fact that Ohio State is every bit as good as it was a year ago, the Buckeyes should have no problem covering this generous 5.5-point spread tonight.
Rutgers is 3-11 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past three seasons. Hortmann is 13-3 ATS in road games in all games he has coached at Ohio State. Holtmann is 12-2 ATS after playing a game as an underdog at Ohio State. The Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Bet Ohio State Wednesday.
|01-08-19||North Carolina v. NC State -1||Top||90-82||Loss||-100||11 h 3 m||Show|
20* UNC/NC State ESPN No-Brainer on NC State -1
What more does NC State have to do to start getting some respect from the books? Until they do, I’m going to continue to ride them as they’ve treated me very well this season. The Wolfpack returned three starters from last year, and underrated head coach Kevin Keatts brought in some great transfers that are really paying dividends this season.
Indeed, the Wolfpack are 13-1 SU this season. Their only loss came on the road at Wisconsin 75-79 as 6-point dogs. And you know this team is underrated when you consider they have gone 11-3 ATS this season. They are elite offensively, scoring 89.2 points per game on 52.1% shooting, including 40.9% from 3-point range. And they are very good defensively as well, holding opponents to 66.0 points and 42.4% shooting. They are outscoring the opposition by 23.2 points per game on average this year, including 29.8 points per game at home where they are 10-0.
North Carolina is 3-2 in true road games this season. They beat Wofford Elon and Pitt, but lost to the two best teams they’ve faced on the road in Michigan (67-84) and Kentucky (72-80). I strongly believe that NC State is one of the best teams in the country and as good as both Michigan and Kentucky, or close to them. That will show on the court tonight.
NC State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. It's worth noting the Wolfpack get four days to prepare for UNC, while the Tar Heels only get two days to prepare after playing on Saturday. That's a nice advantage for the home team here that will pay off. Take NC State Tuesday.
|01-08-19||Southern Illinois -1 v. Drake||70-82||Loss||-110||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois -1
The Southern Illinois Salukis are one of the best teams in the MVC. They returned all five starters this season. The problem is, they lost one of their key starters to a suspension after seven games. Armon Fletcher (11.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG) has missed the last eight games because of the suspension, but he makes his return tonight.
The loss of Fletcher was huge as he shoots 58% from the floor and 47.8% from 3-point range. They went 5-2 with him in the first seven games with one of their only losses coming 59-71 at Kentucky as 18.5-point dogs. They have gone just 4-4 without him. They’ve managed to open 2-0 in MVC play without him with wins against Missouri State and Northern Iowa. And they’ll be a dangerous team moving forward with him now.
Conversely, Drake just lost its best player to a season-ending injury in the MVC opener against Evansville. The Bulldogs were upset by Evansville 77-82 on the road, and they also lost 74-85 to Loyola-Chicago at home in their first full game without him. PG Nick Norton (14.0 PPG, 5.9 APG, 40% 3-pointers) is irreplaceable. He has a triple-double this season and had 17 assists in one game. He was the leader of this team, and he’ll be missed greatly moving forward.
Southern Illinois has actually played its best basketball on the road this season, going a perfect 6-0 ATS with its only straight up losses coming to Kentucky by 12 as 18.5-point dogs and Buffalo by 8 as 13-point dogs, which are two of the better teams in the country. I think being a veteran team with five returning starters is the reason the Salukis have had so much success on the road this year. They improve to 7-0 ATS in road games with a win and cover tonight. Roll with Southern Illinois Tuesday.
|01-08-19||Nuggets v. Heat -1||Top||103-99||Loss||-110||10 h 59 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1
The Miami Heat are coming off one of their worst losses of the season. They lost 82-106 at Atlanta as 6.5-point favorites on Sunday. It’s safe to say that the Heat will come back highly motivated for a victory tonight at home against the Denver Nuggets.
It was clearly an aberration for the Heat, who have been playing great basketball for weeks. Indeed, the Heat are 12-6 SU & 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall. And the Heat have owned tonight’s opponent, the Denver Nuggets, in recent meetings. They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Nuggets.
Denver is in an awful spot here tonight. The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days here. They will also be playing in their 4th different city in six days. Now they’re up against a rested Heat team that will be playing only their 4th game in 9 days. The Nuggets won’t have much left in the tank off their 113-125 shootout loss in Houston last night.
Miami is 11-2 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Denver is 0-7 ATS after allowing 115 points or more this season. The Nuggets are 1-9 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games this season. The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS off a combined score of 235 points or more this season. Bet the Heat Tuesday.
|01-08-19||Maryland v. Minnesota -1.5||Top||82-67||Loss||-100||9 h 16 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota -1.5
The Minnesota Golden Gophers should be bigger favorites at home over the Maryland Terrapins tonight. This is one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten as the Gophers returned five starters from last year and a ton of experience.
It has led to a 12-2 start for the Gophers, whose two losses both came on the road at Ohio State and Boston College. They have also beaten both Wisconsin and Washington on the road, as well as Nebraska and Oklahoma State at home. And they should be able to handle Maryland at home tonight.
The Terrapins are also a quality team at 12-3 this season, but they’ve done most of their damage at home. They have only played three true road games this season, losing at Purdue and winning at Rutgers and Navy. This will be their stiffest road test yet as I believe Minnesota is one of the best teams in the Big Ten this year, but they’re not being treated like it by oddsmakers.
Minnesota is 8-0 SU at home this season and basically just needs to win this game to cover the 1.5-point spread. Mark Turgeon is 9-18 ATS off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent as the coach of Maryland. The Terrapins are getting way too much respect from the books tonight. Bet Minnesota Tuesday.
|01-08-19||Tennessee v. Missouri +8||87-63||Loss||-109||9 h 10 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +8
The No. 3 ranked Tennessee Vols are one of the best teams in the country, no question. But they are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers now and it’s time to ’sell high’ on them, especially off their 96-50 home win over Georgia on Saturday. They will have had just two days to get ready for Missouri now.
Meanwhile, Missouri has been off since December 29th, getting plenty of time to game plan for Tennessee. That’s a huge advantage for them. The Tigers should be highly motivated for a victory in their SEC opener tonight at home.
This is a Missouri team that has been grossly underrated of late, and has won me a couple bets in the process. They have gone 6-0 SU & 4-0-2 ATS in their last six games overall. I won with them as 2-point home dogs in their 71-56 win over Xavier. I also won with them as a pick ‘em in their 79-63 win over Illinois on a neutral during this stretch. Now they put their name on the map here by giving Tennessee a run for its money.
Missouri is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Tennessee is 1-8 ATS after two straight games where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last two seasons. The Vols are 26-44 ATS in their last 70 road games off four consecutive wins. The Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take Missouri Tuesday.
|01-07-19||Magic v. Kings -5||95-111||Win||100||14 h 5 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings -5
The Sacramento Kings will be highly motivated for a victory at home Monday night. They have lost four straight coming in, but all four losses came by 7 points or less to the Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets and Warriors, four playoff teams in the Western Conference. I expect them to take out their frustrations on the lowly Magic tonight.
This is a bad spot for the Magic, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. This is a Magic team that is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six road games with all five losses coming by 10 points or more. They have no depth, so this back-to-back really hurt them.
Making matters worse for the Magic is that their conditioning will really be tested against a Kings team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace at 106.3 possessions per game. The Magic are 26th in pace at 100 possessions per game. Sacramento will control the tempo playing at home, and Orlando won’t be able to keep up.
The Kings have owned the Magic, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Sacramento is also 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Kings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division foes. Take the Kings Monday.
|01-07-19||Grizzlies v. Pelicans -5.5||Top||95-114||Win||102||12 h 57 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5
The Pelicans took out a few weeks’ worth of frustration with their 133-98 win over the Cavaliers on Saturday. And now they look to put a winning streak together here for the first time since mid-December. It’s time for them to turn the corner now that they are healthier than they’ve been in quite some time. They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Grizzlies will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
The Pelicans should have their way with a Grizzlies team that is really struggling right now. The Grizzlies are just 2-10 SU & 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Yet they continue getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers. The Grizzlies have been held to less than 100 points in 11 of their last 17 games, and 107 or fewer in 20 straight.
The Grizzlies just can’t score the ball, and that’s a tough way to win in today’s NBA. There has been some infighting as well as the Grizzlies called a players’ only meeting following their 94-101 home loss to Detroit as 6.5-point favorites. They proceeded to lose their next two games 100-109 as 4-point home favorites against Brooklyn, and 88-108 as 8.5-point road dogs at San Antonio. Clearly, the players’ only meeting only made things worse.
Memphis is 0-9 ATS after trailing its previous game by 20 or more points at the half over the last two seasons. As stated before, the Grizzlies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Bet the Pelicans Monday.
|01-07-19||Alabama -200 v. Clemson||Top||16-44||Loss||-200||32 h 2 m||Show|
20* Alabama/Clemson National Championship No-Brainer on Alabama ML -200
One of the best-kept secrets is betting favorites on the money line in Championship-type games. Whether it be the Super Bowl or the National Championship of college football, you almost always get a cheaper price on the favorite on the money line than it should be.
That’s because with so much action on these standalone games, there’s a ton of liability for sports books on the underdog on the money line. They take way more bets on the dog on the money line than they would in any regular game. So they have to adjust their money line prices so they don’t get killed if the underdog wins the game outright.
A typical 5.5-point favorite is around -240 on the money line. So we are basically getting 40 cents of value here taking Alabama on the money line. I don’t expect this to be a blowout, but I do expect Alabama to win, so I’m more than willing to lay the -200 on Alabama on the money line just to win the game. I think this is the best bet you can make in the National Championship Game.
Alabama certainly wants revenge from losing a heartbreaker on the final play of the game to Clemson a few years ago. And they are also motivated to cement themselves as arguably the greatest team in college football history. They have come this far in the face of all the hype from the media, remaining grounded. And I expect them to complete their mission and win this game Monday night.
This is certainly the best offense the Crimson Tide have ever assembled under Nick Saban, which is why they can stake their claim as the greatest ever. They are scoring 47.7 points per game and averaging 527.6 yards per game. What makes that so remarkable is that they’ve been able to rest their starters in the second half of most of their games this season. And they once again have an elite defense that yields just 16.2 points per game.
I think the fact that Alabama didn’t cover the 14-point spread against Oklahoma last week also has them undervalued. They stormed out to a 31-10 halftime lead and simply took their foot off the gas. Oklahoma got 24 points in garbage time in the second half with the game already decided. Too Tagovailoa showed zero ill-effects of the ankle injury, completing 24-of-27 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns.
Conversely, I think Clemson is getting way too much respect due to its 30-3 win over Notre Dame. Clearly, the Fighting Irish played an easy schedule this season and weren’t one of the four best teams in the country. But it’s worth noting the Fighting Irish had their chances to put up points. In fact, Notre Dame had six drives that went into Clemson territory, and they came away with just 3 points on those six drives. That’s pretty hard to do.
Speaking of easy schedules, Clemson played a very easy schedule in the ACC, which was way down this season. They have only faced three teams in the Top 30 and one team in the Top 10. Meanwhile, Alabama has faced seven teams that rank in the Top 30 and three teams that rank in the Top 10. The’ve obviously beaten all seven. The Crimson Tide are way more battle-tested than the Tigers are coming into this game.
Nick Saban is 15-1 (+14 units) against the money line after failing to cover three of his last four games as the coach of Alabama. The Crimson Tide will cement themselves as arguably the greatest team in college football history with a win over Clemson. Bet Alabama on the Money Line Monday.
|01-06-19||Miami-FL v. Louisville -6||Top||73-90||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
20* Miami/Louisville ACC No-Brainer on Louisville -6
The Louisville Cardinals have faced a brutal schedule this season and have managed a 9-4 record in Chris Mack’s first year on the job. Their four losses have come to Tennessee, Marquette, Indiana and Kentucky with three of those on the road. They have also beaten Michigan State, so it’s safe to say they are battle-tested heading into ACC play.
Now the Cardinals will be highly motivated for a win in their ACC opener Sunday against one of the worst teams in the ACC in Miami. And the Cardinals have been great at home this season, going 8-1 while outscoring their opponents by 16.3 points per game on average. Their only home loss came to Kentucky.
Miami just isn’t that good this season, as evidenced by their 8-5 record and 4-9 ATS mark. The Hurricanes have losses to Yale, Rutgers and Pennsylvania. They have only played one true road game this season, and that was their 75-89 loss at Pennsylvania as 5.5-point favorites. They also have some concerning wins as they beat Bethune-Cookman by 8 as 27-point home favorites, Houston Baptist by 7 as 20.5-point home favorites and Campbell by 11 as 19-point home favorites.
Miami is 1-8 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season. The Hurricanes are 1-7 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game this year. Miami is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games overall. The Hurricanes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. ACC opponents. The Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Louisville is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games following a double-digit home loss. Bet Louisville Sunday.
|01-06-19||Eagles +6 v. Bears||16-15||Win||100||73 h 23 m||Show|
15* Eagles/Bears NFC ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +6
The Philadelphia Eagles are the Wild Card team that nobody wants to face. They easily could have packed it in after their 4-6 start this season, but they didn’t. They went 5-1 in their final six games, including 3-0 in their final three with Nick Foles at quarterback, beating playoff teams in the Rams and Texans along the way. And their defense remains a juggernaut.
Foles threw for 962 yards and six touchdowns in the final three games of the season. This team responded well to him, and he delivered for them. What you have to like about Foles is that he stretches the field a lot more than Wentz does, taking deep shots to Alshon Jeffery and company that result in chunk plays. And it makes them a lot less predictable on offense.
And if you don’t think this Eagles defense is still Super Bowl-caliber, then look no further than the shutout they posted last week against the Redskins in which they allowed just 89 total yards. They are giving up just 21.7 points per game on the season, including 19.5 points per game during their 5-1 run over the final six weeks of the season.
Philadelphia’s defense should be able to hold Chicago’s offense in check. This Chicago offense is the weak link of the team as they obviously have a great defense. The Bears are just 21st in total offense at 343.9 yards per game, and 20th averaging 5.4 yards per play. Mitchell Trubisky will be playing in his first-ever playoff game, and he will be asked to make plays that he’s not used to in this pressure situation. I trust Foles a lot more than Trubisky here.
And it’s worth noting that both WR’s Anthony Miller (shoulder) and Allen Robinson (ribs) got injured against the Vikings lsat week and were forced to leave the game. Fellow WR Taylor Gabriel (ribs) is also on the injury report, as is S Eddie Jackson (ankle). I think the Bears made a big mistake playing their starters the entire game against the Vikings last week. These injuries were the result, and they certainly would have rather faced Kirk Cousins and the Vikings than Foles and the Eagles. I think Foles and the Eagles will feel extra motivated here because they feel slighted by the Bears, who clearly wanted to face them rather than Minnesota.
The Eagles have owned the Bears in recent meetings, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS while outscoring the Bears by a whopping 28.7 points per game in the process. And the Eagles fit into one of my favorite wild card systems. The team that played the tougher schedule has gone 41-17-1 ATS in wild card games since 2002. When that difference is 10 or more according to Sagarin SOS rankings, those teams cover at better than an 80% clip. Well, the Eagles played the 15th-toughest schedule, while the Bears played the 31st-toughest. That easy schedule is also another reason the Bears are overvalued heading into the playoffs.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Philadelphia) - a good passing team with a completion percentage of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards per attempt in four straight games are 26-8 (76.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS vs. good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three seasons. The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight playoff road games. Roll with the Eagles Sunday.
|01-06-19||Magic v. Clippers -6.5||Top||96-106||Win||100||6 h 28 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -6.5
The Los Angeles Clippers are back healthy and playing like they did to start the season where they at one point at had the best record in the Western Conference. The Clippers are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. They should handle the Magic with ease today at home.
The Magic will have spent last night in Los Angeles, which is always a scary proposition. Chances are they stayed out late and won’t be feeling 100% for this 12:35 Pacific tip. The Magic have lost four of their last five road games by double-digits, losing by 25 at Dallas, by 10 at Chicago, by 25 at Charlotte and by 17 at Minnesota.
The Clippers have owned the Magic in recent meetings, including their 120-95 road win as 3.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season. The Clippers have now won 10 straight meetings with the Magic by an average of 13.6 points per game.
The Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents. The Clippers are 6-0 ATS in their last six when their opponent scores more than 100 points in their previous game. The favorite is 21-5-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings. Bet the Clippers Sunday.
|01-06-19||Chargers +3 v. Ravens||23-17||Win||100||70 h 48 m||Show|
15* Chargers/Ravens AFC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +3
The resurgence of the Ravens behind rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson has been one of the best stories in the NFL this season. They went 6-1 down the stretch to win the AFC North by a half-game. And their defense came up huge last week in stopping the Browns in the final seconds of a 26-24 victory a year after coming up short against the Bengals in Week 17.
But with this strong finish comes respect from oddsmakers that I don’t think the Ravens deserve. They are now 3-point home favorites against the Chargers this week after behind 4-point road dogs to the Chargers just two weeks ago. And this will be the first time this season that Jackson will have to face a team for a second time. I think the Chargers will come up with a great game plan to stop Jackson and the Ravens in this matchup now that they’ve already played them once.
That 22-10 final against the Chargers was misleading as well. The Chargers were down 5 and driving, only for Antonio Gates to fumble, and the Ravens returned it for a touchdown. And Philip Rivers threw a touchdown in the end zone with one minute remaining as well. That was certainly not a 12-point game like the final score showed. It was also a letdown spot for the Chargers, who were coming off a huge 29-28 comeback victory at division rival Kansas City the previous week.
I think we get the best effort of the season here from the Chargers in revenge mode. Plus, this is the best road team in the NFL. The Chargers are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in road games this season, including 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in true road games as they beat the Titans in London. Their only loss came on the road at the Rams, and they have road wins over the likes of the Seahawks, Steelers and Chiefs this season. They are more than capable of beating the Ravens on the road here.
I just trust Philip Rivers more than the rookie Jackson, who will be starting his first playoff game. Rivers is having one of the best seasons of his career, and he realizes his opportunities are dwindling. I look for him to make the most of this opportunity. Rivers is playing at an MVP-level, completing 68.3% of his passes with a 32-to-12 TD/INT ratio. Melvin Gordon is healthy, and he gets TE Hunter Henry back for the first time this season to add another weapon.
Rivers is 5-1 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs. John Harbaugh is 0-7 ATS in home games off three or more consecutive wins as the coach of Baltimore having never covered in this situation. Baltimore is 0-6 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last three seasons. It is coming back to lose by 13.0 points per game on average in this spot. Los Angeles is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 road games. Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Take the Chargers Sunday.
|01-05-19||Rockets v. Blazers +1||Top||101-110||Win||100||13 h 17 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers +1
I realize the Blazers are playing the second of a back-to-back here. But they’ll be motivated after blowing a lead to the Thunder and losing 109-111. And I don’t worry about back-to-backs with this team as much because they have one of the best benches in the NBA. I think they can overcome the situation considering it’s an even worse spot for the Rockets.
Indeed, the Rockets are coming off a huge, emotional win over the Warriors on a last-second 3-pointer from James Harden in OT. They wanted revenge on the Warriors from losing in seven games to them in the Western Conference Finals last year, and they got it. Now I fully expect them to suffer a letdown here in this clear hangover spot for them against the Blazers tonight.
James harden has to be running on fumes right now. He’s being asked to do so much for this team with both Chris Paul and Eric Gordon out. And backups PG Austin Rivers is questionable tonight with a neck injury as well. Sooner rather than later, these injuries are going to catch up to this team, and I think it’s tonight.
Houston is 1-8 ATS in road games after playing its last game on the road this season. The Rockets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Portland is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 home games. I don’t expect the Rockets to show up at all tonight. Bet the Blazers Saturday.
|01-05-19||Seahawks v. Cowboys -1.5||Top||22-24||Win||100||53 h 59 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -1.5
Since trading for Amari Cooper, the Dallas Cowboys have been rolling. They have gone 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games to close out the regular season. Their lone loss was a clear flat spot at Indianapolis in Week 15 as they were coming off a huge OT win over the Eagles the previous week that essentially clinched the NFC East title. I used the Colts as my 25* NFL Game of the Year that week, and they won 23-0. It was the best spot of the entire season for the Colts in my opinion.
Heck, the Cowboys even won last week when they were resting a lot of their starters. They beat the Giants 36-35 on the road. The way they won that game gives them a ton of momentum. Dak Prescott found Cole Beasley in the back of the end zone on 4th down on a tremendous catch by Beasley for the game-winner, and the defense held from there.
I just think the Seahawks are grossly overvalued. They managed to go 10-6 this season despite failing to outgain their opponents on the season. They actually get outgained on a yards per play basis. They average 5.6 yards per play on offense and give up 5.9 yards per play on defense. That is arguably the most important stat when handicapping NFL games.
The Cowboys have averaged 26.4 points per game in their seven wins here down the stretch. The offense has taken off with the addition of Cooper. And the Cowboys will have both G Zack Martin and T Tyron Smith healthy for this game after they sat out last week. And Zeke Elliott will be as healthy as he’s been after resting last week as well.
The Seahawks have some injury questions along the offensive line with both T Duane Brown and G J.R. Sweezy questionable for this game. The Seahawks also played their starters last week, and their performance was a lot more underwhelming. They needed a last-second field goal to beat the awful Arizona Cardinals 27-24 as 14.5-point home favorites. That was a Cardinals team that had lost their previous three games by 22, 26 and 14 points and finished 3-13 on the season. The Seahawks also only beat the Cardinals 20-17 on the road earlier this season as well.
Seattle went just 4-4 on the road this season. One of those wins was on a neutral against Oakland, so they only won three true road games. One was against the Cardinals, another was a fluky 30-27 win at Carolina in which they trailed the entire game, and the other was off their bye week in a great spot for them against the Lions.
Dallas is a great home team. The Cowboys are 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game at home this year. The Cowboys have an elite defense that gives up 20.2 points per game overall and 18.5 points per game at home.
This is a great matchup for the Cowboys’ defense. They are 5th in the NFL against the run, giving up 94.6 rushing yards per game. They are also 4th in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt (3.8) allowed. That bodes well for them going up against a Seahawks team that leads the NFL in rushing at 160.0 yards per game.
The Cowboys figure to feed Zeke Elliott a ton in this game. Their running game is still their bread and butter, especially with a healthy offensive line. The Cowboys are 10th in rushing offense at 122.7 rushing yards per game while also averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Well, the Seahawks rank 27th in yards per carry (4.9) allowed this season. It’s also a great matchup for the Dallas offense.
The Cowboys played the much tougher schedule this season. According to Sagarin, the Cowboys played the 11th-toughest schedule, while the Seahawks played the 25th. The team that played the tougher schedule according to Sagarin has gone 41-17-1 ATS since 2002 in Wild Card games. If the difference is more than 10, the team that played the tougher schedule is cashing over 80% since 2002.
Dallas is 6-0 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game this season. The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons. They are coming back to win by 8.6 points per game on average in this spot. Dallas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game. The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six playoff games. Bet the Cowboys Saturday.
|01-05-19||Kansas v. Iowa State -1||Top||60-77||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
20* Kansas/Iowa State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State -1
The Iowa State Cyclones have one of the best home-court advantages in the country at Hilton Coliseum. And they clearly aren’t afraid of Kansas, having gone 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with them.
There’s a reason Iowa State is favored here despite being unranked with Kansas being the No. 6 team in the country. Kansas is clearly overrated as they are 12-1, but seven of their wins have come by single-digits. They aren’t blowing teams out, and they have been fortunate in close games. Kansas has only played one true road game this season at Arizona State, and that was their only loss this season by a final of 76-80.
Iowa State has done a good job of getting to 11-2 this season with all of their injuries and suspensions. Four key players have miss significant time as Lindell Wigginton has missed 10 games, Cameron Lard has missed 7, Zoran Talley Jr. has missed 7 and Solomon Young has missed 11. But all four are back healthy now, and this is going to be a dangerous team moving forward.
The Cyclones are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Kansas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Saturday games. The Jayhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|01-05-19||Evansville v. Illinois State -5||46-58||Win||100||8 h 34 m||Show|
15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State -5
Illinois State is an experienced team that returned four starters this season. Evansville is in rebuilding mode with just one returning starter. But both teams sit at 7-7 on the season, so they are looked at as close to even teams. That’s not the case at all.
Illinois State has played the much tougher schedule this year, and they come in undervalued after losing five of their last six. Well, those five losses have come to Ole Miss, San Diego State, Illinois-Chicago, UCF and Valpo with three of those true road games. They also beat BYU before that, and have beaten Akron and Boise State while losing to Georgia. Another loss came to Belmont in a true road game, which is one of the best non-power 5 teams in the country.
Evansville has been a great home team through the years, but a terrible road team. And that has been the case again this year. Evansville is 0-6 in true road games this season while losing by 11.7 points per game on average.
The Redbirds are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Illinois State is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games following a loss. The Redbirds are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. MVC opponents. Now that they’re into the MVC portion of the schedule, the competition gets weaker and they will get stronger. Take Illinois State Saturday.
|01-05-19||Baylor v. TCU -7.5||81-85||Loss||-109||7 h 25 m||Show|
15* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE DAY on TCU -7.5
The TCU Horned Frogs are legit Big 12 title contenders this season. They returned three starters and a ton of experience. That has led to an 11-1 start this season. This team continues to be grossly undervalued, as evidenced by their perfect 8-0 ATS run over their last eight games overall coming in.
Now the Horned Frogs will be highly motivated for their home opener against Baylor, especially since they’ve been off since Christmas Day. It’s safe to say they know Baylor inside and out having nearly two weeks to prepare for them.
This is a rebuilding Baylor team that returned just one starter from last year. That has been evidenced by their shaky 8-4 start to the season. They lost to Texas Southern outright as 22-point home favorites. They only beat Prairie View A&M by 11 as 16.5-point home favorites. They only beat South Dakota by 6 as 14-point home favorites. They were upset by Stephen F. Austin as 13.5-point home favorites. Those four results alone show that they are a rebuilding team, and there have been other poor results as well.
Baylor is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Baylor is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win. The Horned Frogs are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. TCU is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games. The favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Horned Frogs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. These last four trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Horned Frogs. Roll with TCU Saturday.
|01-05-19||Boston College +16.5 v. Virginia Tech||66-77||Win||100||4 h 34 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +16.5
The No. 10 Virginia Tech Hokies are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today as 16.5-point favorites over the Boston College Eagles. They are getting this respect due to their Top 10 ranking, but they will be hard-pressed to put away the Eagles by this margin.
Boston College is one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They returned four starters and are off to a 9-3 start. Most impressively, the Eagles have played their best on the road, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS on the highway. They beat last year’s Final Four Cinderella in Loyola 78-66 as 4-point dogs on a neutral, handled Wyoming 88-76 as 8-point favorites on a neutral, and upset DePaul 65-62 as 4.5-point road dogs.
Boston College has clearly played the tougher schedule of these two teams, and their three losses have all come by 7 points or fewer. Virginia Tech lost to Penn State, and their only other decent wins have come against Washington, Notre Dame and Purdue. But Purdue and Notre Dame are way down this year.
I think Boston College is getting docked too much for its upset loss to Hartford last time out, but it was a clear lookahead spot with their ACC opener against the Hokies on deck. Well, the Eagles are 21-4 ATS in their last 25 road games off an upset loss as a favorite, and 15-2 ATS in their last 17 road games off an upset loss as a home favorite. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven trips to Virginia Tech. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take Boston College Saturday.
|01-05-19||Michigan State v. Ohio State +3||Top||86-77||Loss||-115||3 h 8 m||Show|
20* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State +3
The Ohio State Buckeyes are getting zero respect at home here today as underdogs to the Michigan State Spartans. The Buckeyes are 12-1 this season and one of the best teams in the country. Keep in mind they went 15-3 in the Big Ten last year as well.
Michigan State will be without one of its best players today in Joshua Langford, who is averaging 15.0 points per game this season. His absence is a big one as he’s one of their three best players, and it’s not being factored into this line enough.
Home-court advantage is not being factored in enough, either. The home team is 13-1 SU in the last 14 meetings in this series. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Michigan State is 1-10 ATS in road games off five or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. Bet Ohio State Saturday.
|01-04-19||Knicks +8.5 v. Lakers||119-112||Win||100||13 h 3 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +8.5
The betting public wants nothing to do with the Knicks right now. That’s because they are only 1-13 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks now, which I did in their last game as they covered as 14-point dogs at Denver in a 7-point loss.
Now the Knicks are catching 8.5 points against a Los Angeles Lakers team that is without both Lebron James and Raton Rondo, and could be without Kyle Kuzma, who left last game with a back injury and didn’t return. It’s likely he sits this one out as well, meaning the Lakers will be without their two best players in James and Kuzma.
Teams with Lebron James on them have now gone just 1-14 SU in the last 15 games he has missed. The Lakers managed to blow a 4th quarter lead against the Thunder the other night as they looked lost in the final period without him. And the Knicks are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season. Plus, they are rested and ready to go playing on two days’ rest.
Los Angeles tends to play to its level of competition. The Lakers are 2-10 ATS vs. poor teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season. The Knicks are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 Friday games. Los Angeles is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. We’re getting great value on the road dog Knicks, who will be thrilled to play in Staples Center tonight on a big stage. Take the Knicks Friday.
|01-04-19||Thunder v. Blazers +1||Top||111-109||Loss||-115||13 h 1 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +1
The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off an emotional come from behind victory over the Lebron-less Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday. Paul George was booed for not signing with the Lakers in the offseason. And he played his heart out, as did the rest of the team, yet the Thunder still needed a big finish in the 4th to beat the Lakers without Lebron. This is now a clear letdown spot for them.
The Thunder now run into a buzz saw in the Blazers, who are 3-1 in their last four games with road wins over the Warriors and Kings, and a blowout home win by 36 points over the 76ers. Their only loss came the game after they beat Golden State as the Warriors got their revenge in a home-and-home situation. That’s understandable.
Portland has had one of the better home-court advantages in the NBA for years, and they are consistently undervalued at home. The Blazers are 14-6 SU & 12-8 ATS at home this year. And the Blazers own the Thunder, going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. They should not be home dogs to the Thunder in this matchup tonight.
Portland is 11-1 ATS in home games after going under the total in three consecutive games over the past three seasons. It is winning by 10.7 points per game in this spot. The Thunder are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents. Portland is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 home games dating back to last season. Bet the Blazers Friday.
|01-04-19||Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 223||111-109||Win||100||13 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Blazers UNDER 223
The Thunder and Blazers played four times last season. They combined for 223 or fewer points in all four meetings. They averaged just 211.5 combined points per game. They have combined for 223 or fewer in seven of their last eight meetings over the past two seasons as well. I just think there’s a ton of value with this UNDER tonight based on the recent head-to-head series.
Russell Westbrook is really struggling of late for the Thunder. He has 4-for-22, 6-for-20 and 3-for-17 performances over the past two weeks. But he and the rest of his team are making up for it on the defensive end. In fact, the Thunder are actually 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 99.6 points per 100 possessions. That has been the key to their success this year.
Oklahoma City is 10-1 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season, including 9-1 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -1 this year. Portland is 8-1 UNDER in home games after having won four or five of their last six games this season. The UNDER is 11-1 in Blazers last 12 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents. The UNDER is 41-17 in Thunder last 58 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-04-19||Clippers -4 v. Suns||Top||121-111||Win||100||12 h 36 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -4
The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost two straight coming in to the Spurs and 76ers. Look for them to take out their frustration on the Phoenix Suns, who have the worst record in the Western Conference at 9-30 this season.
The Clippers have been taking out their frustrations on the Suns for years. Indeed, the Clippers are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. They have won those 10 games by a whopping 14.3 points per game on average, and all 10 have come by 4 points or more with eight by double-digits.
I think this line is lower than it should be simply because the Clippers only beat the Suns 123-119 on December 10th in their last meeting. Keep in mind the Clippers were favored by 9.5 points on the road in that game, so we’re essentially getting 5.5 points of value. And the Clippers are now as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season.
The Clippers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 Friday games. The Suns are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents. Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS as a favorite this season. Phoenix is 1-12 ATS in Friday home games over the past two seasons, losing by 16.0 points per game on average. Bet the Clippers Friday.
|01-04-19||Magic +5.5 v. Wolves||103-120||Loss||-109||11 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +5.5
The Timberwolves have some key injuries right now that are really hampering them. Starting PG Jeff Teague (ankle) has been out for weeks and remains questionable to return tonight, backup PG Derrick Rose is doubtful with an ankle injury, and now Robert Covington just popped up with an ankle injury that will be keeping him out tonight.
All these injuries have been taking their toll on the Timberwolves. It’s no wonder they are just 4-9 SU & 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games overall. These aren’t big names, so the injuries aren’t getting factored into the lines enough. And once again the Timberwolves are getting too much respect tonight as 5.5-point favorites over the Magic.
Orlando comes in playing very well going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall. That includes a 29-point home win over Toronto and a 28-point road win at Chicago. Their only loss during this stretch came on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Charlotte, which is understandable. The Magic have played their best basketball on the road this season, going 9-9 SU & 11-5-2 ATS.
The Magic own the Timberwolves, going 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Two of those losses came in overtime. Orlando is 7-0 ATS in road games off a road game this season. The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on one days’ rest. Orlando is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 trips to Minnesota. The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Magic Friday.
|01-03-19||Rockets v. Warriors -8||135-134||Loss||-107||11 h 30 m||Show|
15* Rockets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -8
The Houston Rockets are without both Chris Paul and Eric Gordon tonight. They will miss both of their playmaking ability against a team the caliber of the Golden State Warriors tonight. I don’t give the Rockets much of a chance here because James Harden is going to have to do too much, and going one-on-one against Golden State does not work.
The Rockets are starting to get some respect from oddsmakers because they’ve been able to win without Paul recently. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. But four of those five games have come at home. The Rockets are just 8-10 SU & 7-11 ATS on the road this season.
The Warriors are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season, and it’s starting to show. They got their Big 4 back and hitting on all cylinders. They are coming off back-to-back double-digit road wins at Portland (115-105) and at Phoenix (132-109). And now they’re rested and ready to go having two days’ rest coming in.
Plays against underdogs (Houston) - off three or more consecutive wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning teams are 75-38 (66.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Rockets lost their final two games to the Warriors in the seven-game series last season without Paul by 29 and 9 points. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Warriors Thursday.
|01-03-19||Raptors v. Spurs -1.5||Top||107-125||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
20* Raptors/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on San Antonio -1.5
The San Antonio Spurs have been flying under the radar for weeks. They are 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall. And once again they are getting zero respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Toronto Raptors.
It’s a Raptors team that is already without Jonas Valanciunas and could be without Kyle Lowry, who is questionable with a back injury. Lowry has missed eight of the past nine games, and the Raptors are just 2-7 ATS without him this season.
I think the Spurs will be extra motivated tonight, also. They feel like they were scorned by Kawhi Leonard, and he forced his way out of San Antonio with the trade that brought DeMar DeRozan to the Alamo city. DeRozan will also be extra motivated, and his team will have his back here.
The Spurs are 15-5 SU & 14-6 ATS at home this season. San Antonio is 16-4 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. The Spurs are 12-1 ATS in home games after covering six or seven of their last eight against the spread over the last three seasons. The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the Spurs Thursday.
|01-03-19||NC State -1.5 v. Miami-FL||Top||87-82||Win||100||7 h 12 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State -1.5
The NC State Wolfpack are one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about. Head coach Kevin Keatts is doing a tremendous job with his three returning starters and several key transfers that are playing big roles this season. They are scoring 89.4 points per game on 52.6% shooting this season, and giving up just 64.8 points per game on 42.1% shooting. They shoot 41.4% from 3-point range as a team.
The Wolfpack are off to a 12-1 start this year. Their only loss came on the road at Wisconsin 75-79 as 6-point underdogs. They have beaten the likes of Auburn, Penn State and Vanderbilt along the way while going 10-3 ATS in their 13 games, a sign of just how undervalued they’ve been.
Miami is a mess. The Hurricanes are just 8-4 SU & 4-8 ATS this season. They have lost to Seton Hall, Rutgers, Yale and Pennsylvania. They also have narrow wins over Bethune-Cookman (78-70) as 27-point home favorites, Fresno State (78-76) as 8-point neutral court favorites, Houston Baptist (80-73) as 20.5-point home favorites and Campbell (73-62) as 19-point favorites. Letting those teams hang around is a sign that they just aren’t that good.
Miami is 1-7 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season. The Hurricanes are 11-29 ATS in their last 40 home games. Miami is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games overall. The Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. ACC opponents. The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Roll with NC State Thursday.
|01-02-19||Thunder v. Lakers +6||107-100||Loss||-109||10 h 4 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +6
Lebron James is obviously worth a lot to the point spread, but not this much. I think the books have adjusted too much. This Lakers team still has a lot of talent without James, and they won without him pulling off the upset at home over the Kings last time out.
Now the Lakers are rested and ready to win without him again tonight. They will be playing on two days’ rest here after having Monday and Tuesday off. They should be primed for a big effort against a Thunder team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 11th game in 20 days.
The lack of rest for the Thunder is starting to show. They have gone just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall. Their only two wins came on the road at Phoenix and at home against Dallas. They actually trailed Phoenix in the fourth quarter before pulling away late. And the win over the Mavs was a revenge spot after losing to the Mavs the night before.
The Lakers are 28-15 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Take the Lakers Wednesday.
|01-02-19||DePaul v. Villanova -11.5||68-73||Loss||-110||8 h 43 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Villanova -11.5
Oddsmakers just don’t price Villanova correctly despite winning two national championships the last three years. It’s hard to believe, but that’s been the case. The Wildcats are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games overall, including 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games. Just this season alone, the Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.
Now Villanova will be highly motivated for their conference opener tonight against DePaul. It’s a DePaul team the Wildcats have dominated. Indeed, Villanova is 16-0 SU in its last 16 meetings with DePaul. In fact, The Wildcats have won 11 of their last 12 meetings with the Blue Demons by 13 or more points. They won by 18 on the road and by 31 at home in their two meetings last year.
DePaul has an 8-4 record thus far, but they are clearly not that good. Their eight wins have come against Bethune-Cookman, Morgan State, PennState, Cleveland State, Florida A&M, Chicago State, Illinois-Chicago and Incarnate Word. They have lost to the four best teams they’ve faced in Notre Dame, Northwestern, Boston College and Xavier. They went 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS against those four teams. And now Villanova will be the best team they’ve faced yet.
Villanova is 9-0 ATS vs. teams who shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 12-1 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game over the last two seasons. Villanova is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a 29-1 system backing the Wildcats tonight. Roll with Villanova Wednesday.
|01-02-19||Pelicans +1 v. Nets||Top||121-126||Loss||-108||7 h 4 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +1
The New Orleans Pelicans are as healthy as they have been all season. They’ll be a dangerous team moving forward because of it as they sit at just 17-21 and undervalued because of their record. But that record is largely due to their lack of health.
Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic and Elfrid Payton have all missed significant time this season. But Davis is healthy, and Payton has only played in seven games but just recently returned. They played great with him to start the season, and his absence has been big. Mirotic is the only player on the injury report now.
Speaking of injuries, the Nets have a plethora of them right now. They have been without leading scorer Caris LeVert and have been without him for some time. But now they are without two key role players in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (9.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Allen Crabbe (9.5 PPG). The strength of this team was their depth, but now that depth is being really tested.
The Pelicans have owned the Nets, going 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings. And that’s significant because they just have to win the game to cover tonight as they are actually underdogs. This is one of the biggest line mistakes I’ve seen this season. Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.
|01-02-19||Drake -2 v. Evansville||77-82||Loss||-111||6 h 20 m||Show|
15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -2
The Drake Bulldogs have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They are 11-2 SU & 10-1 ATS this season, including 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in all road games. And once again they’re not getting the respect they deserve here as only 2-point favorites over Evansville.
This is an Evansville team that returned just one starter this season and simply is not very good. The Purple Aces are just 6-7 this season despite playing a very easy schedule. They don’t have an impressive win yet as they were favored in five of those six victories.
Drake is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games overall. It has upset wins over Boise State, North Dakota State, New Mexico State and San Diego with three of those four coming on the road. Its two losses this season have come on the road to Colorado and Iowa State, and they played Iowa State very tough and only lost by 9 as 13.5-point dogs in a game that they actually led in the second half before the Cyclones pulled away late. They’ll handle the Purple Aces tonight. Take Drake.
|01-02-19||Nebraska v. Maryland -1||Top||72-74||Win||100||6 h 59 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -1
It should be a rowdy atmosphere at Maryland tonight with No. 24 Nebraska coming to down. And I think it’s telling that Maryland is favored in this game, as they should be despite being unranked. They should take down the Huskers at home tonight.
Maryland is 10-3 this season with its three losses coming to Virginia (71-76), Purdue (60-62) and Seton Hall (74-78) by a combined 11 points. That’s how close they are to being 13-0. And if they were, they would be a much bigger favorite tonight. None of those were bad losses.
Nebraska is 11-2, but it is getting too much credit for its wins over Oklahoma State and Clemson. Both of those two teams are way down this season. They lost to the two best teams they’ve faced in Minnesota (by 7) and Texas Tech (by 18). And I think Maryland is close to being as good as both those teams, if not better.
Maryland is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 home games after covering four of their last five ATS. The Terrapins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The days of Nebraska being undervalued are over. They’ve gone 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall. The betting public has caught on by now. Bet Maryland Wednesday.
|01-01-19||76ers v. Clippers -2.5||119-113||Loss||-110||12 h 50 m||Show|
15* 76ers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5
Lou Williams returned from injury and the Clippers have been playing some great basketball since. They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games since Williams came back. One of those losses was a 2-point loss at Golden State as 11-point dogs.
I expect the Clippers to be highly motivated for a win off their upset home loss to the Spurs last time out. They should be rested and ready to go after having the last two days off. They also have two more days off following this game, so I expect them to give max effort given that this is their only game in a five-day span.
Meanwhile, the Clippers are in a tougher spot here playing their 4th consecutive road game. They have a 5th tomorrow night against the Suns as well, so they’ll be looking to conserve some energy and play their starters less minutes. They are coming off an ugly 95-125 road loss to the Blazers and are just 7-11 SU & 6-12 ATS in road games this season.
The Clippers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Los Angeles is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 home games. Philadelphia is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 road games. The 76ers are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Roll with the Clippers Tuesday.
|01-01-19||Knicks +14 v. Nuggets||108-115||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14
The Knicks could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now. They have gone 1-12 SU & 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall coming in. So we’ll ‘buy low’ on them, knowing that the betting public wants nothing to do with them. That forces oddsmakers to set their lines higher than they should be, and we’re getting some great value on them as 14-point dogs now.
The Nuggets have been overvalued here down the stretch. They have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, losing by 21 to the Clippers, by 8 to the Spurs, only beating the Spurs by 3 and the Suns by 4. And now they’re being asked to lay a whopping 14 points to the Knicks tonight. It’s simply too much.
Plays on any team (New York) - in a game involving two teams who score at least 102 points per game, off three straight losses by 10 points or more are 54-24 (69.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Knicks Tuesday.
|01-01-19||Texas +14 v. Georgia||Top||28-21||Win||100||211 h 51 m||Show|
20* Texas/Georgia Sugar Bowl BAILOUT on Texas +14
This game is all about motivation. The Texas Longhorns are happy to be here. Whether or not they beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship, they most likely would have been penciled into the Sugar Bowl. So they aren’t disappointed at all with being in this bowl game.
Conversely, Georgia played in the National Championship Game last year against Alabama. They lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship after blowing a double-digit lead to Jalen Hurts, their second blown double-digit lead in as many tries against the Crimson Tide. That loss cost them a spot in the four-team playoff. The Bulldogs aren’t happy at all to be playing in the Sugar Bowl. It was playoffs or bust for them.
The motivational edge will help Texas make up for their talent edge that clearly goes to Georgia in this one. Fortunately for us, talent doesn’t always win out in these bowl games. And we’re getting two touchdowns here with the more motivated team. I’ll take my chances almost every time.
I also like backing head coach Tom Herman as an underdog. Herman is 12-2 ATS as an underdog in all games he has coached between Houston and Texas. He has won most of those games outright, and his teams are outscoring the opposition by 6.0 points per game in these spots. He certainly knows how to get his team motivated when they are being counted out, which is exactly what he’s doing leading into the Sugar Bowl as nobody outside the locker room is giving them a chance to beat Georgia.
Herman is also 10-1 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry in all games he has coached. Texas does a good job of stopping the run, holding opponents to 136 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry this season. The Longhorns are holding their opponents to 44 rushing yards per game and 0.8 per carry less than their season averages this year. That will help them slow down a Georgia offense that averages 252 rushing yards per game and 6.1 per carry this season.
Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Georgia) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games, a team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season playing a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games are 61-27 (69.3%) ATS since 1992. Bet Texas Tuesday.
|12-31-18||Mavs v. Thunder UNDER 224||102-122||Push||0||10 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Mavericks/Thunder UNDER 224
This is one of my favorite situations to bet UNDERS. It’s a home-and-home situation. The Mavs just played the Thunder last night in Dallas, and now they play again tonight in Oklahoma City. Teams obviously get familiar with one another in these home-and-home situations, and it tends to be lower scoring in the 2nd meeting because familiarity favors defense.
They only combined for 208 points last night. And now we’re seeing a total of 224 for the rematch. This is way too high, and there’s clearly some value with the UNDER. That’s especially the case when you look at the head-to-head series between these teams.
Indeed, the Mavs and Thunder have now combined for 211 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight of their last nine meetings. They have averaged just 201.8 combined points in those nine meetings, which is roughly 22 points less than this 224-point total. It’s simply too high.
The UNDER is 42-20-1 in Mavericks last 63 games following a win. The UNDER is 8-2 in Mavericks last 10 Monday games. Dallas is 21-6 UNDER off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Oklahoma City is 54-36 UNDER when revenging a loss over the last three years. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|12-31-18||Grizzlies +5 v. Rockets||Top||101-113||Loss||-109||9 h 36 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies +5
The Houston Rockets are already without Chris Paul. And now they will be without Eric Gordon, who suffered a knee injury last game. This team has been terrible without Paul, and they can’t afford to lose Gordon. Paul and Gordon combine to average 30.3 points and 10.2 assists per game. They just aren’t deep enough to overcome their absences.
Memphis is fully healthy and one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. They are so much better when both Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are healthy, and they have added some nice pieces around them. And this is a rested Grizzlies team that will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and only their 3rd game in 8 days.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - a well rested team playing four or less games in 10 days, in December games are 44-21 (67.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Grizzlies Monday.
|12-31-18||Missouri v. Oklahoma State +8||Top||33-38||Win||100||182 h 52 m||Show|
20* Missouri/Oklahoma State Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Oklahoma State +8
It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Oklahoma State and ’sell high’ on Missouri in the Liberty Bowl. The Tigers are getting too much respect with how they finished the season, while the Cowboys are getting zero respect with how they finished the year. That has created some line value here on the Cowboys catching more than a touchdown to the Tigers in this matchup of old Big 12 rivals.
Oklahoma State finished the season 2-5 SU & 3-4 ATS in its last seven games overall. But four of those losses came by 7 points or less, and four of them were on the road. That includes their 47-48 loss at Oklahoma as 21.5-point dogs which showed they could play with anyone. They also beat West Virginia and Texas at home, two of the best teams in the Big 12.
Missouri is getting respect due to its 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS finish to the season. But two of the wins came against bad Tennessee and Arkansas teams who didn’t make a bowl. They only beat Vanderbilt by 5 as 14.5-point favorites, and Vanderbilt barely made a bowl and went on to lose to Baylor in their bowl game. The win over Florida looks impressive, but not when you consider that it was a huge hangover spot for the Gators off their loss to Georgia the previous week that cost them the SEC East title.
The Cowboys will never be out of this game due to an offense that ranks 10th national in yards per game (500.2) and 14th in scoring (38.4). QB Taylor Cornelius threw for 3,837 yards with a 28-to-11 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 385 yards and 10 scores. I realize leading rusher Justice Hill (930 yards, 9 TD, 5.9/carry) is out, but his absence is being overblown. Backup Chuba Hubbard (595 yards, 6 TD, 5.6/carry) isn’t much of a downgrade. He’s actually an upgrade in the passing game over Hill, averaging 10.1 yards per reception on his 19 receptions compared to 5.2 on 13 for Hill.
The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine December games. Missouri is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Big 12 opponents. Bet Oklahoma State Monday.
|12-30-18||Colts -3 v. Titans||33-17||Win||100||31 h 16 m||Show|
15* Colts/Titans NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Indianapolis -3
The Indianapolis Colts are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. They are 8-1 in their last nine games overall, impressively rebounding from a 1-5 start. They are now on the verge of making the playoffs. A win and they’re in, while a loss and they’re out. It’s that simple for them here. And they’ve fought too hard to blow this opportunity now.
There has been nothing lucky about this run for the Colts. In fact, they have outgained 11 of their last 12 opponents, which is the sign of an elite team. Their defense is playing as well as it has in years, and Andrew Luck is moving the chains and putting points on the board. There’s no question the Colts have the edge on offense in this one, scoring 26.7 points and averaging 382.9 yards per game this season.
While the Titans also have a good defense, their offense is dreadful. They rank 26th in total offense at 316.0 yards per game. They are also 26th in scoring offense at 19.5 points per game. And their job gets even more difficult on offense this week with the injury to Marcus Mariota. He was knocked out of the game against the Redskins last week, and now Blaine Gabbert will be the starting quarterback. I certainly don’t trust him to perform well in this huge game with their season on the line.
I trust Andrew Luck a lot more. Luck is 10-0 in his 10 career starts against the Titans, which includes their 38-10 victory over Tennessee on November 18th when Luck went 23-of-29 passing for 297 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. His dominance of the Titans continues as he improves to 11-0 against the Titans with a win and cover Sunday night.
Teams with a win percentage of 51% to 60% are 1-12 ATS in games with a line of +3 to -3 since the start of the 2009 season when facing an opponent that beat them by 14 or more points earlier in the season. The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Titans are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Colts Sunday.
|12-30-18||Thunder v. Mavs +3||103-105||Win||100||7 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Dallas Mavericks +3
The Dallas Mavericks have one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA. They are 14-3 at home compared to 2-15 on the road. They should not be home underdogs to the Thunder tonight considering they are 13-4 ATS at home and winning by 8.0 points per game on average in Dallas this season.
The Mavericks are certainly happy to be back home after playing six of their last eight on the road. That’s a big reason why they went just 1-7 in their last eight games overall. But they suffered several close losses to great teams along the way, losing by 4 at the Clippers, by 4 at the Warriors, by 3 at the Blazers and by 2 at the Pelicans. It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win tonight to get back in the win column.
The Mavericks have had the Thunder’s number in recent meetings. Indeed, the Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. That includes 111-96 and 97-81 victories in their last two home meetings with the Thunder. They are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with both of their losses coming by a single point. They have outscored the Thunder by an average of 8.8 points per game in those five meetings in Dallas.
The Mavericks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games overall. The Thunder are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 Sunday games. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Dallas is 8-0 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Take the Mavericks Sunday.
|12-30-18||Wolves v. Heat -3.5||Top||113-104||Loss||-110||6 h 58 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -3.5
The Miami Heat are flying under the radar right now. They have gone 10-4 SU & 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall to get to .500 on the season. I expect them to continue to roll tonight at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Timberwolves have started to struggle of late. They are 3-7 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall. That includes losses to the Pistons, Hawks, Suns and Kings. A big reason for their struggles has been the injury to starting PG Jeff Teague. And now they are expected to be without backup PG Derrick Rose, who has been absolutely huge for them this season.
I always like fading teams who spent Saturday night in big cities. Well, there’s not many more distracting cities than South Beach, Miami. You can bet these Timberwolves players were out partying last night. They won’t be focused for this game at all. Plus, the Timberwolves are just 4-13 SU & 7-10 ATS on the road this season.
Minnesota is 1-9 ATS in road games after a combined score of 235 or more points over the last two seasons. The Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a win. Miami is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games overall. The Heat are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. Western Conference opponents. Bet the Heat Sunday.