15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +100

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing tremendous value as a home underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. After losing three of four to the Reds last series, and six of their last eight overall, the Cardinals will be highly motivated as they enter this series.

Each of St. Louis' last seven games have been on the road, so it will be glad to return home where it is 41-25 on the season. The Cardinals also trail the Pirates by 1.5 games for first place in the NL Central, so that adds even more fuel to the fire tonight.

Joe Kelly has been one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander is 7-1 with a 1.97 ERA in 11 starts this season, and 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA in all action in 2013. Plus, Kelly is 2-0 with a miniscule 0.75 ERA in two starts against Pittsburgh this season, allowing just one earned run over 12 innings.

A.J. Burnett is having a solid season for the Pirates as well, but he has been at his worst on the road. Burnett is 3-6 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.398 WHIP in 13 road starts this year. Burnett is 1-1 with a huge 13.15 ERA in his last three starts at St. Louis, allowing 19 earned runs over 13 innings.

The Cardinals are 7-0 in Kelly's last 7 starts overall. St. Louis is 7-0 in Kelly's last 7 starts vs. NL Central opponents. St. Louis is 5-0 in its last 5 games as a home underdog. The Pirates are 1-6 in Burnett's last 7 road starts. These four trends combine for a 25-1 system backing St. Louis. Roll with the Cardinals Friday.

15* UCF/FIU CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 53.5

I'm backing the UNDER in this contest between the UCF Knights and the Florida International Panthers this Friday. I just don't believe Florida International is going to be able to score after what we've seen in the opener for both teams.

Central Florida played a great game defensively in a 38-7 win over Akron. This was a Zips team that has a very underrated offense, and the Knights managed to hold them to just 7 points and 250 total yards. It would be hard seeing the Panthers putting up more than a touchdown in this one after their performance against Maryland.

Florida International was held to just 10 points and 171 total yards in its 10-43 loss to the Terrapins last weekend. This is an FIU offense that returns a mere four starters, and its one that replaced all five starters along the offensive line. Look for UCF defenders to be in the FIU backfield and disrupting things all game long.

Sure, UCF is going to get its points, but it won't be enough to surpass this 53-point total. These teams have squared off each of the last two years with UCF winning 33-20 for 53 combined points last season, and FIU winning 17-10 in 2011 in a game that only saw 27 combined points. I look for something in between in this one in the neighborhood of a 35-7 victory for UCF and 42 combined points.

UCF is 22-7 to the UNDER in its last 29 September games. The Knights are 26-11 to the UNDER In their last 37 non-conference games. FIU is 7-0 to the UNDER as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992. FIU is 11-1 UNDER in home games off a loss by 21 or more points since 1992. The Panthers are 7-0 UNDER in home games after being outgained by 225 or more total yds in their previous game since 1992. These last three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Ravens/Broncos 2013 NFL Season Opener on OVER 48

I look for an absolute shootout between the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens in the 2013 NFL season opener. Both teams should pick up right where they left off last season offensively, which each should also take a step back defensively for a number of reasons.

The Broncos have only gotten more potent offensively this offseason. That

20* FAU/East Carolina CFB Thursday No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +20.5

The Florida Atlantic Owls have clearly been one of the most underrated teams in the country dating back to last season. After their cover as a 31-point underdog at Miami on Friday, the Owls are now 9-2 (82%) against the spread in their last 11 games overall. Carl Pelini

15* Red Sox/Yankees AL East ANNIHILATOR on New York -105

The New York Yankees (75-64) have won three straight and five of their last six to pull within 2.5 games of Tampa Bay for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They need this game more than the AL East-leading Boston Red Sox, and I believe they get it tonight.

Ivan Nova is in the midst of the best season of his career to this point. The right-hander has gone 8-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in 15 starts and three relief appearances. Nova is 6-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 10 home starts.

Jake Peavy is 11-5 with a 3.91 ERA this season in his time between Chicago and Boston. He has been at his worst on the road, going 4-5 with a 5.06 ERA in 11 starts away from home in 2013.

Peavy has never beaten New York, going 0-4 with a 3.96 ERA in four career starts against the Yankees. Nova has gone 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last two starts against Boston. New York is 20-7 in Nova's last 27 starts as a home favorite.

The Yankees are 8-0 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter. New York is 6-0 in Nova's last 6 starts overall. The Red Sox are 24-54 in their last 78 games as an underdog. Roll with the Yankees Thursday.

20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -148

The Pittsburgh Pirates collapsed in the second half each of the last two seasons. They have said enough is enough in 2013 as they continue to surge forward and lead the NL Central with an 81-57 record on the season.

Milwaukee (59-79) has lost five straight and appears to have packed it in. Things won't be much easier for the Brewers tonight as Wily Peralta gets the ball. The right-hander is 8-14 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in 28 starts, 4-8 with a 5.12 ERA in 14 home starts, and 0-2 with a 6.46 ERA in his last three starts.

Also making matters more difficult on Milwaukee is the fact that it will be up against one of the best starters in baseball. Francisco Liriano is 15-6 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 21 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in his last three starts. Liriano is 6-2 with a 3.33 ERA in nine career starts against Milwaukee, including 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two starts against the Brewers in 2013.

Liriano is 10-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 home games. Milwaukee is 0-4 in Peralta's last 4 starts overall. These four trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Pittsburgh tonight. Bet the Pirates Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +110

After losing the first two games of this series, and five of their last six overall, the St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight in Cincinnati. I believe they get it with the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Rookie Shelby Miller is having a tremendous season at 12-9 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 26 starts. Miller is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two career starts against Cincinnati.

Bronson Arroyo has been solid at 13-10 with a 3.66 ERA, but he has posted a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts. Arroyo is 8-16 with a 4.65 ERA in 35 career starts against St. Louis. In his last start against the Cardinals on August 2, Arroyo allowed seven earned runs over 3 2/3 innings of a 3-13 loss. The Reds are 0-5 in Arroyo's last 5 starts vs. Cardinals.

The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series. St. Louis is 29-13 in its last 42 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Cardinals are 6-2 in Miller's last 8 starts as an underdog. The Reds are 1-8 in Arroyo's last 9 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Cincinnati is 5-12 in Arroyo's last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Cardinals Tuesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Padres UNDER 7

I look for an absolute pitcher's duel tonight between the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres. Both teams are averaging a mere 3.8 runs/game on the season and I look for both starting pitchers to dominate the opposition.

Tim Lincecum is 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 25 career starts against San Diego. In three starts against the Padres in 2013, Lincecum has gone 2-1 with a miniscule 0.79 ERA while allowing just two earned runs over 22 2/3 innings of work.

San Diego's Eric Stults is 5-3 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 13 home starts this season. In his last two starts against the Giants this year, Stults has gone 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA while allowing only three earned runs over 12 1/3 innings.

The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Giants last 9 games overall. The UNDER is 21-8-1 in Giants last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Padres last 4 games overall. The UNDER is 12-3 in Padres last 15 games following a win. The UNDER is 10-1 in Stults' last 11 starts during game 3 of a series. The UNDER is 11-5 in Stults' last 16 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Pirates -115

The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing tremendous value tonight as a small road favorite over the Milwaukee Brewers. While Pittsburgh (80-57) is in a three-way battle for the NL Central Title, the Milwaukee Brewers (59-78) are done for.

Milwaukee appears to have packed it in, losers of four straight coming in. Now, they send the overrated Yovani Gallardo to the mound Tuesday. Gallardo has gone 10-9 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including 5-5 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 13 home starts.

Gerrit Cole has been solid in his rookie season for Pittsburgh, going 6-7 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in 14 starts. Cole has been at his best on the road, going 2-2 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.912 WHIP in four starts away from home.

Pittsburgh is 49-26 (+20.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. Bet the Pirates Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +140

The Chicago Cubs (58-79) have no business being this heavily favored against anyone in the league. That's especially the case considering they don't even have the edge on the mound tonight against the Miami Marlins.

Tom Koehler is 3-9 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in 18 starts and six relief appearances in 2013 for Miami. He has been slightly better than Chicago's Edwin Jackson, who is 7-14 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in 26 starts this year.

The Marlins have simply owned Jackson in the past. In fact, Jackson is 1-6 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.640 WHIP in eight career starts against Miami. He should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight.

Chicago is 12-32 (-20.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. Jackson is 4-10 (-8.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Marlins are 5-1 in Koehler's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Cubs are 0-5 in Jackson's last 5 starts. Chicago is 2-9 in its last 11 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Marlins Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Night Line Mistake on St. Louis Cardinals +140

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday. After dropping four of their last five overall, the Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory tonight.

St. Louis will bounce back behind highly touted rookie Michael Wacha (2-0, 3.78), who will be recalled for the third time after briefly getting sent down to Double-A. Wacha has struck out 37 batters over 33 1/3 innings in the big leagues this season.

Homer Bailey is clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. The right-hander is 9-10 with a 3.55 ERA in 27 starts this year. Bailey is 4-9 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.512 WHIP in 16 career starts against St. Louis.

The Cardinals are 46-22 in their last 68 games following a loss. The Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win. Cincinnati is 2-7 in Bailey's last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Cardinals Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -139

The New York Yankees (73-64) trail the Tampa Bay Rays by just 2.5 games for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They continue to surge forward despite all of the injuries they have suffered this season.

With Hiroki Kuroda on the mound tonight, I'll gladly lay the juice and back them against the Chicago White Sox. The right-hander has gone 11-10 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 27 starts this season.

Kuroda has been at his best at home, going 7-2 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 11 starts in New York. Kuroda has also owned the White Sox in the past, going 2-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in four career starts against them. He is 2-0 with a 1.15 ERA in two career home starts against Chicago.

The White Sox are 3-19 (-19.3 Units) against the money line after scoring 1 run or less this season. New York is 14-2 (+13.1 Units) against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more this season. The White Sox are 12-39 in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 8-0 in Kuroda's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 13-3 in its last 16 home games. Take the Yankees Tuesday.

20* FSU/Pitt ESPN Monday ANNIHILATOR on Florida State -10

The Seminoles were actually very close to playing for a national title en route to a 12-2 campaign in 2012. In their two losses to NC State and Florida, they actually led in the second half of both of those contests. Jimbo Fisher has done an excellent job in his first three seasons here, getting FSU to an ACC Title and likely in contention for a national title for years to come. He can simply recruit with the best head coaches in the country.

Florida State only returns 11 starters, but this is still one of the most talented teams in the FBS. Redshirt freshman Jameis Winston could be the next Johnny Manziel at quarterback. He completed 13 of 15 passes for 205 yards and two touchdowns in the spring game. He

15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -125

The Pittsburgh Pirates (79-57) are showing tremendous value as a small road favorite over the lowly Milwaukee Brewers (59-77) Monday. Pittsburgh sits tied atop the NL Central with St. Louis and has a lot more to play for.

Charlie Morton has been a godsend for the Pirates this season, going 6-3 with a 3.14 ERA over 14 starts. Morton has really been dominant in his last three outings, going 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA while allowing just three earned runs over 21 1/3 innings.

In his last two starts against Milwaukee, Morton has not allowed a single earned run over 8 2/3 innings for a 0.00 ERA. He just faced the Brewers in his last start on August 28, going 6 2/3 innings of a 7-1 Pittsburgh victory.

The Pirates are 30-12 in their last 42 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Pittsburgh is 6-0 in Morton's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 home games. Roll with the Pirates Monday.

15* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on New York Yankees -145

The New York Yankees (72-64) trail the Tampa Bay Rays by just 3.5 game for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They'll be up against the Chicago White Sox (56-79) Monday, who have the second-worst record in the AL.

Phil Hughes has owned Chicago in the past, and I look for that to continue today. Hughes is 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.853 WHIP in six career starts against Chicago, allowing a mere five earned runs over 34 innings of work.

Jose Quintana is having a solid season at 7-4 with a 3.66 ERA for the White Sox. However, he really struggled in his lone career start at New York, giving up six earned runs and 11 base runners over six innings. Quintana has posted a 4.97 ERA and 1.579 WHIP in two career starts against the Yankees.

Hughes is 23-4 (+18.4 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss since 1997. His teams are winning 7.1 to 4.1 in this spot, or by an average of 3.0 runs/game. The White Sox are 13-41 in their last 54 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss. Take New York Monday.

15* NL Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres +1.5 (-104)

The San Diego Padres will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep to the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday after losing the first two games of this series. I like their chances of doing so today, but I'll side with them on the run line for a little extra insurance.

There's a great chance this game is decided by exactly one run either way with the quality of these two starting pitchers. Tyson Ross is 3-4 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 10 starts this season, while Zach Greinke is 13-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.165 WHIP in 22 starts.

Ross has been at his best on the road this season, going 3-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in six starts away from home. Ross has posted a 1.93 ERA in his one career start against Los Angeles, which resulted in a 7-2 San Diego victory earlier this season.

This play falls into a system that is 75-46 (62%, +31.4 Units) since 1997. It tells us to bet on all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (SAN DIEGO) - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (NL) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. Take the Padres on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Ohio/Louisville ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Ohio +21

The Ohio Bobcats enter the 2013 season way undervalued. They quietly went 9-4 last year despite having huge injury problems down the stretch. They even had 10 starters out in a 6-28 closing loss to Kent State. Now healthy, and with 12 starters back, the Bobcats will be an improved team in 2013.

I love the offense with seven returning starters from a unit that put up 31.7 points and 445 total yards per game last year. Remember, this is the same Ohio team that went into Penn State and won 24-14 in its opener as a 6-point dog. QB Tyler Tettleton, who is already the school's career passing leader (6,274 yards), returns. Also back is running back Beu Blankenship, who rushed for 1,604 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Tettleton has his top target back in receiver Donte Foster (59 receptions, 659 yards, 8 TD) as well.

Louisville enters 2013 way overvalued due to its 11-2 record last season that concluded with a 33-23 victory in the Sugar Bowl against an overrated Florida team. I was even on the Cardinals at +14 in that contest, but I'm fading them to start 2013. Louisville was a very lucky team last year as it won won a whopping eight games by 10 points or less, including six by 7 points or fewer. There's no question this is a quality team with 16 returning starters, but it is not 21 points better than Ohio at home.

The Bobcats have played a BCS team on the road each of the last five years, including the AP #2 and #3 teams at the time. While they are 0-5, they have only been outgained 373-332 and outscored 31-19 on average in those contests. Ohio is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 non-conference games. Louisville is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 home games. Bet Ohio Sunday.

15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -131

After losing the first two games of this series to Toronto (62-74), the Kansas City Royals (69-66) will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 Sunday. I like their chances given the edge they have on the mound in this one.

James Shields has pitched like the ace that he is all season, going 9-8 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.259 WHIP in 28 starts. That includes a 7-3 mark with a 2.26 ERA in 15 road starts, and a 2-0 record with a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts overall.

J.A. Happ is one of the worst starters in baseball. Toronto's left-hander is 3-4 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 12 starts this season. While Shields has posted a 3.22 ERA in 22 career starts against the Blue Jays, Happ sports a 4.91 ERA in two career starts against the Royals.

The Royals are 6-0 in Shields' last 6 starts as a road favorite. Kansas City is 10-1 in its last 11 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Blue Jays are 0-4 in Happs last 4 home starts. Take this combined 20-1 system backing Kansas City straight to the bank today. Roll with the Royals Sunday.

15* Boise State/Washington Bowl Rematch BAILOUT on Washington -3.5

Off three straight seven-win seasons, Steve Sarkisian and company are ready to take that next step forward in 2013. This will easily be his best team yet as 18 starters and 58 lettermen return from a year ago. Folks in Seattle have to be very optimistic about this season despite drawing a brutal schedule overall, including Boise State in the opener.

All of these returning starters will be highly motivated to avenge their 26-28 Las Vegas Bowl loss to the Broncos. The offense is loaded with 10 returning starters. Senior QB Keith Price threw for 2,726 yards with 19 touchdowns and 13 interceptions last year. Leading rusher Bishop Sankey (1,439 yards, 16 TD) is back. All of Price

15* Padres/Dodgers NL West BAILOUT on San Diego +150

The San Diego Padres are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday. Being a divisional game, the Padres will be plenty motivated for the win. With the edge they have on the mound, I like their chances of pulling off the upset against the NL West leaders tonight.

Andrew Cashner is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander is 8-8 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.213 WHIP on the season. He has posted a 1.71 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in his last three starts. In his lone career start against the Dodgers on 6/23/2013, Cashner allowed just one earned run and six base runners over 8 innings for a 1.13 ERA and 0.750 WHIP.

Chris Capuano is the worst starter on Los Angeles' roster and the most beatable. The left-hander has gone 4-7 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.442 WHIP in 18 starts and two relief appearances. Capuano is 2-5 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 10 home starts. In his lone home start against San Diego this season on 4/16/2013, Capuano gave up five earned runs over 2 innings of a 2-9 loss.

The Dodgers are only 24-27 (-12.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. The Padres are 4-0 in Cashner's last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. San Diego is 4-0 in Cashner's last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Padres are 14-6 in their last 20 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Dodgers are 2-6 in Capuano's last 8 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Take the Padres Saturday.

15* LSU/TCU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on TCU +4.5

The TCU Horned Frogs had several things go wrong that contributed to to a poor first season (7-6) in the Big 12 last year. First, they were returning just nine starters last year and were an inexperienced team. Then, quarterback Casey Pachall got suspended and was out for the season after making just four starts. Despite their 4-5 record in the Big 12 last year, they still managed to outgain conference opponents by an average of 33.1 yards per game.

Now, with 16 returning starters, TCU has a great chance to get back to winning 10-plus games in 2013 like it has become accustomed to doing. Pachall will split time with Trevone Boykin, who gained valuable experience last year at quarterback. The defense returns nine starters from the best stop unit in the Big 12 a year ago. TCU only allowed 22.6 points and 324 total yards per game last season despite having just four returning starters. With nine back, this will be one of the best stop units in the country.

TCU has won nine of its last 13 against ranked opponents, and it is a solid 13-4 since 2005 against non-conference BCS schools. Gary Patterson is one of the most underrated head coaches in the entire country. He has past wins over the likes of Wisconsin, Boise State, Oregon State, Clemson, Stanford, BYU and Utah on his list of big victories in recent years.

I look for LSU to take a step back in 2013. That

15* Alabama/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +21.5

Off a down 7-6 season in 2012, the Virginia Tech Hokies enter the 2013 campaign undervalued. Remember, the Hokies had won at least 10 games for eight consecutive seasons from 2004 to 2011. You can

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off a season in which they would like to forget. They failed to win six games for the first time since 2000, finishing 4-8. However, this team was much better than its record would indicate, losing a ridiculous six games by 6 points or less. In fact, five of its eight losses came by 3 points or fewer. It's safe to say that these players will be highly motivated heading into 2013.

Iowa returns 13 starters from last year's squad. While it will be breaking in a new quarterback, it's impossible to get much worse play than what it received from James Vandernberg, who threw just seven touchdown passes last year. Mark Weisman (815 yards, 8 TD, 5.1/carry) is back to carry the load offensively. Also back are three starters along the offensive line, as well as leading receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley and TE CJ Fiedorowicz, who is one of the top tight ends in the country.

Northern Illinois is coming off a 12-2 season last year, which clearly has it overvalued. It has lost head coach Dave Doeren, who has bolted for NC State this offseason. That's a huge blow to the program as Doeren led the Huskies to back-to-back MAC Titles. New head coach Rod Carey will be working with only 12 returning starters, though talented QB Jordan Lynch is back. I look for the Huskies to take a huge step back defensively with only four starters back on that side of the ball. They lose seven of their top 10 tacklers, including Tyrone Clark (86 tackles, 10 for loss, 7 passes defended), Alan Baxter (60 tackles, 9.5 sacks), Rashaan Melvin (55 tackles, 18 passes defended) and Sean Progar (59 tackles, 8.5 sacks).

Iowa will have one of the most improved defenses in the country with seven starters back from a unit that gave up 22.9 points per game. To stop Lynch, a defense must have good linebackers who can pursue the quarterback and make tackles. The Hawkeyes have just that as each of their top three tacklers from last season are back in senior WLB Anthony Hitchens (124 tackles, 5.5 for loss), senior MLB James Morris (113 tackles, 9 for loss) and senior OLB Christian Kirksey (95 tackles, 2 INT).

Iowa is 8-0 all-time versus Northern Illinois with an average margin of victory of 27 points per game. The Hawkeyes have won 12 straight season openers. This play falls into a system that is 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N ILLINOIS) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, in non-conference games. Take Iowa Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +27

The Rice Owls will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2013 after a 7-6 campaign a year ago. I believe they are the best team in Conference USA with 19 starters and 54 lettermen coming back. David Bailiff will have his best team yet, and one that is capable of giving Texas A&M a run for its money. This is a Rice team that has pulled off two upsets (Purdue, Kansas) against BCS opponents over the past two years.

The offense is loaded with nine starters back from a unit that put up 31.8 points and 427 total yards per game. Leading the way will be senior QB Taylor McHargue, who threw for 2,209 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions last year, while also rushing for 667 yards and 11 scores. The defense welcomes back a whopping 10 starters from a unit that will be much-improved after yielding 30.0 points per game last year. In fact, each of the top eight tacklers are back on the stop unit.

Texas A&M starting QB Johnny Manziel, starting CB Deshazor Everett, and starting FS Floyd Raven will all be suspended for the first half of Saturday

25* College Football Season Opening GAME OF THE YEAR on Buffalo +35

I fully expect the Buffalo Bulls to be one of the most improved teams in the country under fourth-year head coach, Jeff Quinn. They went just 4-8 last season, but only one of their eight losses came by more than 22 points. That 22-point setback came in their opener at then-No. 6 Georgia as a 38-point underdog. Just as they hung tough against the Bulldogs, they will do so in their opener against Ohio State in 2013.

That's especially likely considering that Buffalo returns 16 starters and 54 lettermen from last year's squad. This is clearly Quinn's best team in his four years here. The offense boasts nine returning starters, including senior RB Branden Oliver, who rushed for 1,395 yards in 2011 before being held to 821 yards in 2012 while playing in only seven games due to injury. Also back is senior receiver Alex Neutz, who caught 65 balls for 1,015 yards and 11 touchdowns last year.

The defense held its own last season, allowing 28.5 points and 364 total yards per game. With seven starters back, including eight of the top 10 tacklers, this stop unit is going to be even better in 2013. Leading the way is two-time, first-team All-MAC LB Khalil Mack (94 tackles, 21 for loss), senior LB Lee Skinner (89 tackles, 8.5 for loss), second-team All-MAC DE Colby Way (58 tackles, 7 sacks) and second-team All-MAC CB Najja Johnson (43 tackles, 5 INT). This is one of the most underrated stop units in the country.

Ohio State enters 2013 as one of the most overrated teams in the FBS. It is getting way too much respect for its perfect 12-0 regular season last year. There was a ton of luck involved to get to those 12 wins. In fact, the Buckeyes won a ridiculous six games by 7 points or less, including two overtime triumphs. The offense will be solid with nine returning starters, but the defense is in a world of hurt with only four starters coming back. Ohio State loses eight of its top 12 tacklers. Plus, it will be without RB Carlos Hyde (suspension) for the opener, who rushed for 970 yards and 16 touchdowns last year. The Bulls will hang tough and get us an easy cover in this one. Bet Buffalo Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Upset Special on Purdue +10.5

The Purdue Boilermakers have new life heading into 2013 with a new head coach. Despite making a bowl game the past two seasons, Danny Hope has been fired. I really like the hiring of Darrell Hazell, who led Kent State to a school-record 11 wins last season. This guy is one of the best up and coming head coaches in the country.

There is still plenty of talent left in the cupboard for Hazell considering 13 starters and 48 lettermen return. While the offense only has five starters back, it does have the experienced Rob Henry starting at quarterback. The defense can carry the load early as eight starters and six of the top seven tacklers are back on this side of the ball. That includes junior SS Landon Feichter (80 tackles, 4 INT), senior LB Will Lucas (66 tackles, 6.5 for loss), sophomore CB Frankie Williams (45 tackles, 11 passes defended) and junior DE Ryan Russell (37 tackles, 8.5 for loss).

The Cincinnati Bearcats also suffer some huge losses offensively, so it

20* FAU/Miami ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Florida Atlantic +32

Carl Pelini did a tremendous job in his first year at Florida Atlantic in 2012. This team was much more competitive than its 3-9 record would indicate. Seven of Florida Atlantic

15* WMU/Michigan State Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Western Michigan +28

The Spartans simply lack the explosiveness to cover such a big number. This is an offense that put up just 20.0 points per game last season. Now, Michigan State loses its most productive player in running back Le

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +125

The Baltimore Orioles (71-61) are looking to make a push at the end of the season to get into a Wild Card spot in the American League. So are the Yankees, but Baltimore is better equipped to do it.

I'll side with the Orioles for that reason and because they have the edge on the mound tonight. Miguel Gonzalez is 8-6 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.279 WHIP in all starts this season, including 3-4 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in 12 road starts. The right-hander is also 2-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in six career starts against New York.

C.C. Sabathia is having a horrible year, going 11-11 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.351 WHIP In 27 starts, including 2-1 with a 5.61 ERA and 1.642 WHIP in his last three. The left-hander has struggled in his last two starts against Baltimore this season, going 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA while allowing eight earned runs over 13 1/3 innings.

The Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. New York is 2-7 in Sabathia's last 9 starts overall. The Yankees are 1-7 in Sabathias last 8 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Roll with the Orioles Friday.

20* Ole Miss/Vanderbilt ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Ole Miss -3

The Rebels are the most experienced team in the SEC with 19 returning starters from last year

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +142

After losing the first two games of this series to Boston, the Baltimore Orioles will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep Thursday. They also need to keep up in the AL Wild Card race, so they cannot afford to lose many more games from here on out.

With the edge the Orioles have on the mound tonight, they should not be a dog in this contest. Chris Tillman is 14-4 with a 3.66 ERA in 26 starts this season. He has been at his best away from home, going 7-1 with a 2.97 ERA in 11 road starts in 2013.

Jon Lester is 12-7 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.306 WHIP In 27 starts this year for Boston. Tillman is 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in eight career starts against the Red Sox. He is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts vs. Boston, pitching 13 shutout innings in the process.

Tillman is 7-0 (+10.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. Tillman is 6-0 (+6.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. Take this combined 13-0 system backing Tillman and Baltimore straight to the bank tonight. Take the Orioles Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday Night Line Mistake on UNLV +14

Sure, the Rebels have only won six games over the past three years, but there

15* CFB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Akron +22.5

Terry Bowden had very little to work in his first season at Akron last year as the Zips returned only 10 starters. This team was much better than its 1-11 record would indicate, only getting outscored by an average of 9.6 points per game on the year. Now, with 14 starters and 45 lettermen returning, I look for this team to be much-improved in 2013.

The offense welcomes back seven starters, including leading rusher Jawon Chisholm (953 yards, 5 TD). Every receiver returns other than Marquelo Powell, and Kyle Pohl is ready to step in at quarterback after completing 65.5 percent of his passes for 366 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions a year ago. The defense has seven starters and five of its top seven tacklers back.

Only two of Akron

15* UNC/South Carolina ESPN Season Opener on North Carolina +13

Larry Fedora did a tremendous job last season in keeping his team focused and getting the Tar Heels to eight wins despite being ineligible for the postseason. Now, eligible for postseason play, UNC is going to be very hungry heading into 2013. It returns 13 starters in all from a team that outscored opponents by a whopping 14.9 points per game on average a year ago.

While the offense loses all-purpose back Giovani Bernard to the NFL, it still possesses one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Bryn Renner, who completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 3,356 yards with 28 touchdowns and seven interceptions last year. Renner is back to lead an offense that put up 40.6 points and 486 total yards per game last season.

UNC also possesses first-team All-ACC LT James Hurst, a senior who will be charged with handling South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney for most of the game. I believe the Tar Heels will be able to move the ball and score points against an overrated South Carolina defense in this one. While the Gamecocks bring back Clowney, the fact of the matter is that they lose defensive six starters, including each of their top four tacklers from a year ago. South Carolina will be breaking in three new linebackers, two new starters along the defensive line, and must replace FS DJ Swearinger, who was taken in the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft by the Houston Texans.

With their biggest game of the season on deck against SEC East rival Georgia, the Gamecocks could be overlooking North Carolina enough to fail to cover this double-digit spread. It

15* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -110

The Kansas City Royals (67-64) still believe they can make the playoffs. They have won three in a row to get to within seven games of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They go up against a Minnesota team that is just 57-73 on the season tonight.

"We haven't given up on making the playoffs. We want Duffy on our playoff roster," manager Ned Yost told the team's official website. "And if we do make the playoffs, we're probably going to go with three starters and Wade is going to be in the bullpen at that time."

Danny Duffy has been dominant in two starts this season, going 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 1.241 WHIP. His last start came against Detroit on August 16 as he pitched six shutout innings of a 2-1 victory over the potent Tigers.

Andrew Albers has struggled of late for Minnesota, going 0-1 with a 7.10 ERA in his last two starts. He has allowed 10 earned runs over 12 2/3 innings. He is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one.

The Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Kansas City is 5-0 in its last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Royals are 5-0 in Duffy's last 5 road starts. Kansas City is 6-0 in Duffy's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. These five trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Royals. Roll with Kansas City Wednesday.

15* Orioles/Red Sox ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Baltimore +170

The Baltimore Orioles are showing tremendous value Wednesday night as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox. The Orioles trail Oakland by 3.5 games for the final Wild Card spot in the American League, making this a huge game for them.

Bud Norris has pitched admirably this season, going 9-9 with a 4.17 ERA in 26 starts. John Lackey is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. Lackey is 1-1 with a 7.64 ERA in his last three starts against Baltimore, allowing 15 earned runs over 17 2/3 innings.

Baltimore is 17-5 (+12.5 Units) against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more this season. The Orioles are 32-12 in their last 44 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Baltimore is 5-0 in Norris' last 5 starts overall. The Orioles are 54-26 in their last 80 games following a loss. Take Baltimore Wednesday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Yankees -136

Trailing Oakland by just 4.5 games for the final Wild Card spot in the American League, the New York Yankees (70-62) have a lot to play for the rest of the way. The last-place Toronto Blue Jays (59-74) do not.

With the edge the Yankees have on the mound tonight, I'll side with them at an excellent price. Hiroki Kuroda is 11-9 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in 26 starts this season. Kuroda is 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in six career starts against Toronto.

Todd Redmond is 1-1 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in eight starts this year for the Blue Jays. The right-hander is coming off a start at Houston in which he allowed eight runs, seven earned, and 11 base runners over 3 1/3 innings of a 4-12 loss.

New York is 16-3 (+13.4 Units) against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more this season. The Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. New York is 5-0 in its last 5 games as a favorite. The Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog. These four trends combine for a 32-3 system backing the Yankees. Bet New York Wednesday.

15* Orioles/Red Sox AL East ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore +125

The Baltimore Orioles (70-59) trail the Boston Red Sox by 5.5 games for the AL East lead. They need this game and series more, and due to their edge on the mound, I'll side with them at an excellent price tonight.

Wei-Yin Chen is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The left-hander has gone 7-6 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 16 starts this season. Even more impressive is the fact that Chen is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA in four career starts against Boston.

Felix Doubront is 9-6 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 23 starts and one relief appearance for Boston this year. The right-hander has really struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Baltimore is 6-0 in Chen's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. These two trends combine for an 11-0 system backing the Orioles. Plus, Baltimore is 29-11 in its last 40 games following an off day, while Boston is 1-6 in its last 7 games following a win. Take the Orioles Tuesday.

15* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Angels +125

The Los Angeles Angels have not quit on their season. They are coming off a three-game sweep at Seattle, and now I look for them to give Tampa Bay problems in Game 1 of this series tonight.

That's especially the case considering the edge the Angels have on the mound. C.J. Wilson is 13-6 with a 3.30 ERA in 26 starts for the Angels, while Roberto Hernandez is 6-13 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.332 WHIP In 23 starts for Tampa Bay.

Wilson has been very dominant of late, going 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last three starts. The same cannot be said for Hernandez, who is 0-2 with a 7.53 ERA and 1.813 WHIP in his last three outings.

Los Angeles is 10-1 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Tampa Bay is 2-14 (-15.7 Units) against the money line after a loss by 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 20-6 in their last 26 games following an off day. Los Angeles is 6-1 in Wilson's last 7 road starts. Roll with the Angels Tuesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -114

The New York Yankees (69-62) still have a shot to earn a Wild Card spot in the American League. They'll fight until the finish line to get one. Meanwhile, Toronto (59-73) is in last place in the AL East with nothing to play for.

I'll gladly back the Yankees tonight due to the edge they have on the mound. Andy Pettite is 5-5 with a 3.82 ERA in 12 road starts this season, and 2-0 with a miniscule 1.06 ERA in his last three starts. Those three have come against Toronto, Boston and Detroit, so he has gotten better as the season has gone on.

J.A. Happ is one of the worst starters in the majors. The left-hander has gone 3-3 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Happ has posted a 5.46 ERA in five career starts against the Yankees as well.

The Yankees are 8-0 in their last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. New York is 4-0 in its last 4 games as a favorite. The Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing New York. Bet the Yankees Tuesday.

20* American League DOG OF THE MONTH on Houston Astros +142

After winning eight of their last nine games overall, the Chicago White Sox (54-75) are being way overvalued tonight against the Houston Astros. Chicago still has nothing to play for, and off a series win over Texas, it is in for a big letdown tonight in Game 1 of this series against Houston.

I really like getting the Astros at this price with the underrated Brett Oberholtzer on the mound. The left-hander has gone 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in four starts this season. That's impressive when you consider those four starts came against the Angels, Rangers, Red Sox & Orioles.

Andre Rienzo is having a solid season for Chicago at 1-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.286 WHIP. However, he pitched poorly in his lone home start, giving up four earned runs, two homers and 12 base runners over 5 1/3 innings against the Twins on August 10.

The White Sox are 3-19 (-18.8 Units) against the money line vs. a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Chicago is 7-19 in its last 26 games as a favorite. Bet the Astros Monday.

15* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Oakland A's +165

After losing four of their last five, the Oakland A's (72-57) have dropped 2.5 games behind Texas for first place in the AL West. It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a victory as they head to Detroit for Game 1 of this series Monday.

I believe the A's are showing tremendous value with the underrated A.J. Griffin on the mound tonight. The right-hander has gone 10-9 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.165 WHIP through 26 starts this season.

Anibal Sanchez is having a great season for Detroit, but he's getting too much respect here. In his lone career home start against Oakland, Sanchez gave up six runs, five earned, over 5 2/3 innings of a 4-12 loss.

Griffin is 18-6 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. The A's are 23-9 in their last 32 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Griffin is 19-5 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Oakland Monday.

15* Red Sox/Dodgers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +100

I'm going to side with the home team tonight in the Los Angeles Dodgers at a great price against the Boston Red Sox. Jake Peavy is getting way too much respect from the books here.

Peavy has given up four earned runs or more in five of his last eight starts. He only has eight strikeouts in his last three outings, and he hasn't made it past the 7th inning in any of his last eight starts.

Los Angeles has won 46 of its last 57 games overall. The Red Sox are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 14-2 in its last 16 during Game 3 of a series. The Dodgers are 7-0 in Capuanos last 7 starts. These last four trends combine for a 31-2 (94%) system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Dodgers Sunday.

20* Saints/Texans FOX Sunday No-Brainer on New Orleans +2.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -142

The Arizona Diamondbacks (66-62) are still in the thick of the NL Wild Card race. They cannot afford to lose many more games the rest of the way, but the key is that they believe they have a chance.

With the edge the Diamondbacks have on the mound Sunday over the hapless Philadelphia Phillies (58-71), I'll gladly lay the juice and side with them in this one. Pat Corbin is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.

Arizona's left-hander is 13-3 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 25 starts this season. Corbin is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.948 WHIP in one career start against Philadelphia. He'll be up against Tyler Cloyd, who is 2-3 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.513 WHIP in seven starts this year.

Arizona is 22-4 in Corbin's last 26 starts overall. The Diamondbacks are 12-1 in Corbin's last 13 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Phillies are 1-6 in Cloyd's last 7 starts as an underdog. Take the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* NL Saturday Mound Mismatch on Pittsburgh Pirates -125

The Pittsburgh Pirates (76-52) have a lot to play for right now as they are in a three-way race with St. Louis and Cincinnati for first place in the NL Central. The San Francisco Giants (56-72) have nothing to play for as they sit in last place in the NL West.

With the edge the Pirates have on the mound tonight, coupled with the motivation factor, this one is a no-brainer. Francisco Liriano is 14-5 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He is 2-0 with a miniscule 0.56 ERA in his last two starts, allowing one earned run over 16 innings.

Tim Lincecum is on the decline. He has posted his third straight disappointing season, going 6-13 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.320 WHIP over 25 starts. Lincecum is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA In his last two starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 22 base runners over 11 innings. The former Cy Young winner is also 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last two starts against Pittsburgh, yielding eight earned runs and 17 base runners over eight innings.

Liriano is 9-0 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. Liriano is 8-0 (+8.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season. The Pirates are 7-0 in Liriano's last 7 starts with 4 days of rest. The Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. These four trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing Liriano and Pittsburgh. Take the Pirates Saturday.

25* NFL Preseason GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Rams +7

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NFL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NFL Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Chiefs/Steelers UNDER 40

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -106

The Arizona Diamondbacks (65-62) are seven games back of Cincinnati for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Needless to say, they cannot afford to lose many more games if they want to make a run at the postseason.

I like the Diamondbacks' chances of bouncing back Saturday with the underrated Randall Delgado on the mound. The right-hander has gone 4-4 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.269 WHIP in 12 starts this season.

Delgado has posted a 2.77 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in two career starts against Philadelphia. He'll be up against Ethan Martin, who is 2-2 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in four starts this season for the Phillies.

Arizona is 6-1 in Delgado's last 7 starts overall. The Phillies are 1-10 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series. Philadelphia is 3-13 in its last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. The Phillies are 0-5 in their last 5 Saturday games. Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday.

15* Pirates/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +135

The Pittsburgh Pirates (75-52) are in a three-way race for first place in the NL Central. They have a lot more to play for right now than the San Francisco Giants (56-71), who sit in last place in the NL West.

Pittsburgh is loaded with underrated starting pitchers. Charlie Morton is no exception. The right-hander has gone 4-3 with a 3.67 ERA in 12 starts, including 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three. Morton has posted a 3.12 ERA in eight career starts against San Francisco.

Madison Bumgarner is one of the better young starters in the game. That being said, he's going to find it hard to be motivated to pitch with his team clearly out of the playoff race. Bumgarner has already started to show signs of that, going 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Pirates are 41-18 in their last 59 vs. a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh is 4-0 in Morton's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a road underdog. The Giants are 2-9 in their last 11 games as a home favorite. The Giants are 0-7 in Bumgarners last 7 start's with the total set at 6.5 or lower. San Francisco is 0-4 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts as a favorite. Bet the Pirates Friday.

20* Seahawks/Packers CBS Friday ANNIHILATOR on Seattle -2.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +120

The Arizona Diamondbacks (65-61) are showing tremendous value as a road underdog to the hapless Philadelphia Phillies (57-70). While Arizona still has a lot to play for as it chases the NL West Title and NL Wild Card spots, Philadelphia has nothing to play for.

Wade Miley has been one of the most underrated starters in the league for Arizona. The left-hander is 9-8 with a 3.56 ERA in 25 starts, 4-6 with a 3.23 ERA in 15 road starts, and 1-0 with a 2.86 ERA in his last three starts.

Cole Hamels is having a sub-par season in Philadelphia. The left-hander is 5-13 with a 3.61 ERA in 26 starts, including 2-6 with a 3.81 ERA in 13 home starts. Miley is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career start against Philadelphia, pitching six shutout innings of a 9-5 victory.

Hamels is 3-13 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season. Arizona is 5-0 in Miley's last 5 starts. The Phillies are 3-14 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record. The Phillies are 0-7 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take the Diamondbacks Friday.

15* Pirates/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +115

The Pittsburgh Pirates (74-52) are in a three-way race for first place in the NL Central. They have a lot more to play for right now than the San Francisco Giants (56-70), who sit in last place in the NL West.

Jeff Locke has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this year, going 9-4 with a 2.90 ERA over 24 starts. He has been virtually unhittable away from home, going 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA and 1.138 WHIP In 12 road starts.

Matt Cain has been one of the most overrated starters this year. The right-hander is 8-8 with a 4.35 ERA in 25 starts this season, including 4-6 with a 4.90 ERA in 14 home starts. That's not good when you consider AT&T Park is certainly a pitcher-friendly one.

The Pirates are 40-18 in their last 58 vs. a team with a losing record. San Francisco is 7-19 in its last 26 home games. The Giants are 2-8 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 1-6 in Cain's last 7 home starts. Take the Pirates Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -134

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing solid value as a small home favorite against the Atlanta Braves. Not only do they need this game more as they are in a three-way race for first place in the NL Central, but they also have a big edge on the mound.

Joe Kelly is 4-3 with a 3.01 ERA in eight starts and 24 relief appearances in 2013. He has been dominant as a starter, going 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in his eight starts. Kelly pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings in his lone start against Atlanta this year on July 27.

Paul Maholm has been at his worst on the road this year, going 4-7 with a 6.03 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 13 starts away from home. Maholm has really struggled of late, going 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA and 2.251 WHIP in his last three starts, all of which came on the road.

Maholm is 0-11 (-11.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Maholm and the Braves are getting outscored by 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Panthers/Ravens ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Carolina +3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

25* MLB GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Orioles -115

After losing the first two games of this series to the Tampa Bay Rays, the Baltimore Orioles now trail them by 5.5 games for the AL East lead. Needless to say, the Orioles will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been at any other point in the season to avoid the sweep.

Due to their motivation and edge on the mound, Baltimore represents my strongest play of the entire 2013 MLB season tonight. Wei-Yin Chen is 6-6 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.141 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in six home starts.

Jeremy Hellickson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers once again tonight. The right-hander is 10-6 with a 4.91 ERA in 25 starts, 5-4 with a 5.40 ERA in 12 road starts, and 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in his last three starts.

Chen has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in six career starts against Tampa Bay. Hellickson sports a 5.85 ERA in three starts against the Orioles this season. In his lone start at Baltimore on May 17, Hellickson gave up eight earned runs over 7 2/3 innings.

The Rays are 5-17 in their last 22 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Tampa is 1-6 in its last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rays are 5-11 in Hellickson's last 16 road starts. The Orioles are 5-0 in Chen's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 5-0 in Chen's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take this combined 10-0 system backing Chen and the Orioles straight to the bank. Bet Baltimore Wednesday.

15* NL Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Chicago Cubs +120

The Chicago Cubs should not be an underdog to the Washington Nationals tonight. Neither team has much to play for, but after an 11-1 victory last night, the Cubs clearly aren't packing it in.

Chris Rusin has been solid as a starter this season for Chicago. The left-hander is 2-2 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in six starts this year.

He'll be up against Dan Haren, who is 7-11 with a 4.82 ERA in 22 starts for Washington. Haren is 1-2 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.369 WHIP in five career starts against Chicago.

This play falls into a system that is 53-27 (66.2%, +28.5 units) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games, with a well rested bullpen who did not throw an inning last game. Take the Cubs Tuesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -108

The Baltimore Orioles pounded out 15 hits last night but only managed three wins in a 3-4 loss to Tampa Bay. Now, trailing the Rays by 4.5 games, the Orioles really need to get Game 2 tonight.

I like their chances with the underrated Miguel Gonzalez on the mound. The right-hander is 8-5 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in 21 starts this season. Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 3.97 ERA in six career starts against Tampa Bay. The Orioles are 5-1 in those six contests.

The Orioles are 12-1 in Gonzalez's last 13 home starts. Baltimore is 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 52-25 in their last 77 games following a loss. Tampa Bay is 1-6 in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets +138

The New York Mets are showing excellent value as a home underdog to NL East rival Atlanta Tuesday. Considering the edge they have on the mound in this one, I'll gladly back the home team at this price.

Zach Wheeler is 5-2 with a 3.43 ERA in 11 starts and one relief appearance in 2013. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last three starts as well.

Brandon Beachy is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA in four starts this season for Atlanta. Beachy is 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA in one career start against New York, while Wheeler is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta.

Wheeler is 7-0 (+9.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season this season. The Braves are 7-15 in their last 22 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. New York is 7-1 in Wheeler's last 8 starts overall. Take the Mets Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Mound Mismatch on Miami Marlins +137

The Los Angeles Dodgers have lost two straight for the first time since June. Yaisel Puig blew up in the dugout en route to an 0-for-5 performance at the plate. After an amazing run, the Dodgers could finally be coming back down to earth.

Miami has a big edge on the mound tonight, which is why I'll back it at an excellent price at home. Jacob Turner is 3-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 14 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.34 ERA in six home starts.

Chris Capuano is 4-6 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 5.17 ERA in his last three starts.

The Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Miami is 6-1 in Turner's last 7 starts as a home underdog. Roll with the Marlins Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +137

The Arizona Diamondbacks (64-59) are in a position where they cannot afford to lose too many more games if they want to make the postseason. Given their best starter goes tonight, I'll back them at a great price against the Cincinnati Reds.

Pat Corbin has been one of the best starters in the big leagues this season. The left-hander is 12-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 24 starts. The Diamondbacks are 20-4 (+14.7 units) in those 24 outings.

Corbin has faced the Cincinnati Reds twice in his career. The left-hander has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.954 WHIP in those two outings, allowing just four earned runs and 14 base runners over 14 2/3 innings.

Cincinnati is hitting .241 and scoring 3.7 runs/game against left-handed starters in 2013. The Diamondbacks are 10-1 in Corbin's last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Arizona Tuesday.

20* Steelers/Redskins ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +2.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -137

The St. Louis Cardinals (71-52) have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they trail the Pittsburgh Pirates by one game for the NL Central lead. They are also only 1.5 games ahead of Cincinnati. Meanwhile, Milwaukee (54-70) has little to play for.

I'll gladly back the Cardinals tonight due to the edge they have on the mound. Shelby Miller has been tremendous, going 11-8 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 23 starts. Milwaukee's Marco Estrada is 5-4 with a 4.71 ERA in 14 starts, including 2-2 with a 7.72 ERA in six home starts.

Miller is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in two career starts against Milwaukee, allowing one earned run over 13 innings. Estrada is 0-3 with a 6.67 ERA and 1.741 WHIP in five career starts against St. Louis.

The Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Millers last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Brewers are 12-26 in their last 38 vs. NL Central foes. St. Louis is 27-11 in its last 38 meetings with Milwaukee. Bet the Cardinals Monday.

15* AL Monday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +123

The Baltimore Orioles are showing tremendous value as a home underdog tonight. Trailing the Tampa Bay Rays by 3.5 games, this is clearly a very important homestand for the Orioles.

Chris Tillman has quietly had a very solid season in Baltimore. The right-hander is 14-3 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in 24 starts this year. The Orioles have gone 18-6 in those starts for +12.6 units against the money line.

David Price is having an excellent year for Tampa Bay as well, but he's clearly overvalued here. The left-hander is 6-5 with a 3.28 ERA in 18 starts this season with the Rays going 9-9 (-5.8 units). Price was rocked for five earned runs over six innings in his last start at Baltimore.

Tillman is 15-3 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season. The Rays are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 12-1 in Tillman's last 13 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take Baltimore Monday.

15* Yankees/Red Sox ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +112

The New York Yankees are showing excellent value Sunday as a road underdog to hated rival Boston. New York still has an outside shot of making the postseason, but it needs a big finish.

C.C. Sabathia isn't having his best year, but there's no question he's the better starter in this one. I'll gladly fade Ryan Dempster, who is 6-8 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.450 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 0-0 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in his last three starts.

Dempster has never beaten the Yankees, going 0-5 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.992 WHIP in seven career starts against New York. His teams are 1-6 in those seven contests. Bet the Yankees Sunday.

20* Colts/Giants FOX Sunday No-Brainer on New York -1.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

20* Jaguars/Jets NFL Network No-Brainer on New York -2.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NFL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Bengals -2.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +105

The Washington Nationals have continued to play out their season. They have won five of their last seven games overall. After a one-run loss at Atlanta last night, I look for them to take out their season-long frustration in Game 2 behind ace Stephen Strasburg.

Strasburg is 6-9 despite a sensational 2.83 ERA and 1.039 WHIP over 23 starts this season. He's coming off his best start of the year, pitching a complete game shutout in a 6-0 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies last time out.

While Mike Minor is having a solid season for the Braves as well, he has struggled against tonight's opponent. Minor has posted a 4.30 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in seven career starts against Washington. Meanwhile, Strasburg sports a 3.43 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 11 career starts against Atlanta.

Washington is 17-8 (+12.6 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% over the last 3 seasons. The Nationals are 31-20 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. Bet Washington Saturday.

15* Bucs/Patriots FOX Friday No-Brainer on Tampa Bay +3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -130

The Cincinnati Reds put together a tremendous run in the second half last year to win the NL Central. Once again, they are doing the same in 2013, quietly playing their best baseball of the season at the right time. Cincinnati has won eight of nine coming in.

Mike Leake is having a tremendous season in Cincinnati. The right-hander is 10-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 23 starts. Leake has been at his best on the road, going 7-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in 12 starts away from home.

Tom Gorzelanny has pitched well in limited action this season. However, he has struggled against tonight's opponent in the past. Gorzelanny is 3-5 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.472 WHIP in 10 career starts against Cincinnati.

The Reds are 8-2 in Leake's last 10 road starts. Cincinnati is 44-21 in its last 65 games as a road favorite. The Reds are 42-16 in their last 58 vs. a team with a losing record. The Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Bet the Reds Friday.

20* NFL Friday Preseason ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo Bills -3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.
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15* Reds/Brewers NL Central No-Brainer on Cincinnati -135

The Cincinnati Reds are one of the hottest teams in baseball. They went on a huge run in the second half last year to win the NL Central, and they're on track to do the same thing in 2013. Cincinnati has won seven of its last eight heading into this series with Milwaukee.

With Tony Cingrani on the mound for the Reds tonight, I look for them to continue to roll. Cingrani is one of the best young starters in the game, going 5-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in 14 starts and six relief appearances. He has struck out 102 batters over 87 1/3 innings.

Cingrani has been really tough of late, going 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in his last three starts. The left-hander has posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in two career starts against the Brewers as well.

The Reds are 41-16 in their last 57 vs. a team with a losing record. Cincinnati is 45-22 in its last 67 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Brewers are 2-9 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Milwaukee is scoring just 3.6 runs/game against left-handed starters, while Cincinnati is scoring 4.6 runs/game against right-handed starters. Take the Reds Thursday.

20* NFL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* AL Thursday Total ANNIHILATOR on Mariners/Rays UNDER 8.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays Thursday. Both Joe Saunders and Alex Cobb are failing to get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

Cobb is having a tremendous season, going 6-2 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Cobb is 1-2 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in three career starts against Seattle. The UNDER is 3-0 in those three contests.

Cobb is 9-1 UNDER (+8.0 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Tampa Bay is 19-5 UNDER (+13.0 Units) at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons.

The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Saunders' last 7 starts as a road underdog. The UNDER is 10-2-1 in Cobb's last 13 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 33-16-2 in Rays last 51 overall. The UNDER is 46-22-3 in Rays last 71 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The UNDER is 38-12-1 in the last 51 meetings in Tampa Bay. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +228

The Houston Astros are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog against the Oakland A's tonight. They actually have the edge on the mound in this one, but this line does not reflect that at all.

Rookie Jarred Cosart is quietly having a brilliant season in Houston. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.36 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in five starts this year, including 1-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in three road starts.

Oakland's Jarrod Parker is clearly being overvalued in this one. The right-hander is 8-6 with a 4.04 ERA in 23 starts, 4-3 with a 4.65 ERA in 12 home starts, and 2-0 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts.

Cosart pitched a gem in his line start against Oakland on July 23, allowing just one earned run over seven innings. The Astros are 9-4 in their last 13 Wednesday games. The A's are 0-4 in their last 4 games with a total set of 7.0-8.5. Roll with Houston Wednesday.

25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-125)

The Tampa Bay Rays have lost six straight games to fall four games behind the Boston Red Sox for first place in the AL East. Needless to say, they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they welcome the Seattle Mariners.

Ace David Price gets the ball tonight looking to keep up his tremendous work of late. Price is 6-5 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 17 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing two earned runs and 15 base runners over 23 1/3 innings.

I'll gladly fade Aaron Harang, who is 5-10 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.315 WHIP In 19 starts this season. Harang has been beaten up in his last two starts, allowing 14 earned runs, four homers and 17 base runners in seven innings of work.

Price is a perfect 9-0 against the run line (+10.3 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Rays on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Angels/Yankees OVER 7.5

This is a very low total for two great lineups playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. The Yankees and Angels combined for 21 runs yesterday, and they'll have no problem surpassing this 7.5-run total tonight.

Jered Weaver and Ivan Nova are each having solid seasons, but that's why this total has been set too low. When you look at their career numbers against the opposition, it's easy to see that the OVER is the play here.

Weaver is 6-3 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.386 WHIP in 13 career starts against New York. The OVER is 8-4-1 in those contests. Nova is 3-2 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in five career starts against Los Angeles. The OVER is 4-1 in those games.

The OVER is 7-1 in Angels last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. The OVER is 10-3 in Weaver's last 13 starts vs. AL East foes. The OVER is 5-0 in Nova's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in New York. The OVER is 4-0 in Nova's last 4 starts vs. Los Angeles. The OVER is 4-1 in Weaver's last 5 road starts vs. Yankees. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians +100

The Cleveland Indians trail the Detroit Tigers by seven games for first place in the AL Central division. After losing the first game of this series to Minnesota, they'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 2 tonight.

Zach McAallister is having a solid season while posting a 4.01 ERA over 15 starts in 2013. I'll gladly back him over Minnesota's Sam Deduno, who is clearly being overvalued in this contest tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 34-11 (75.6"%, +28.7 units) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CLEVELAND) - after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a losing team. Bet the Indians Tuesday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +127

The Chicago Cubs are showing tremendous value as a home underdog to NL Central rival Cincinnati Tuesday. That's especially the case considering ace Jeff Samardzija gets the ball.

Samardzija has some of the best stuff in baseball. That's evident by the fact that he has struck out 158 batters over 153 1/3 innings. Samardzija has posted a 3.52 ERA in five career starts against Cincinnati.

Homer Bailey has been at his worst away from home this season. The right-hander is 3-8 with a 4.04 ERA in 12 road starts in 2013. Bailey has posted a 4.38 ERA and 1.472 WHIP in 12 career starts against Chicago.

Chicago is 35-21 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. This play falls into a system that is 86-47 (64.7%, +29.2 units) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road teams (CINCINNATI) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. Roll with the Cubs Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Angels +140

The Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees have little to play for the rest of the way with where they sit in the standings. I'll gladly back the dog in this match-up tonight as the Angels are showing excellent value given the circumstances.

Jason Vargas has been an underrated starter throughout his career. The left-hander is 6-4 with a 3.65 ERA over 14 starts this season.

C.C. Sabathia is one of the more overrated starters in the league. He's clearly on the decline, going 9-10 with a 4.73 ERA in 24 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA in his last three starts.

Vargas is a very profitable 17-11 (+14.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 6-1 in Vargas' last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Yankees are 0-6 in Sabathia's last 6 starts. New York is 1-8 in its last 9 games following a win. Take the Angels Tuesday.

15* NL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on San Francisco Giants +125

The San Francisco Giants get the nod Tuesday as a road underdog to the Washington Nationals. Neither team has much to play for at this point, so given the edge the Giants have on the mound I'll gladly back them at this price.

Madison Bumgarner has been a big bright spot in an otherwise forgetful season for San Francisco. The left-hander is 11-7 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 23 starts, including 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last three starts.

Gio Gonzalez is 7-5 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in 23 starts. The left-hander has struggled of late, going 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA and 1.937 WHIP in his last three outings.

Bumgarner is 2-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five career starts against Washington. San Francisco is 13-3 (+11.7 Units) against the money line after a loss by 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Washington is 1-10 (-11.2 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season. The Nationals are 2-9 in their last 11 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Giants are 10-1 in Bumgarner's last 11 Tuesday starts. Bet the Giants Tuesday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Indians -120

The Cleveland Indians finally put an end to their 6-game losing streak with a 6-5 victory over the Angels Sunday. Trailing Detroit by seven games for first place in the AL Central, they cannot afford to start another losing streak tonight.

Cleveland rookie Danny Salazar has impressed in only two starts this season. He has posted a 3.29 ERA and 0.805 WHIP while striking out 17 batters over 13 2/3 innings. He faced two of the toughest lineups in baseball in the Tigers and Blue Jays in those two contests.

Now, Salazar should have no problem shutting down one of the worst lineups in the league. The Minnesota Twins are hitting just .241 and scoring 4.0 runs/game on the season, including .237 and 3.9 against right-handed starters. Cleveland is hitting .271 and scoring 5.2 runs/game against left-handed starters.

Minnesota is 1-10 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in home games revenging a home loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Twins are 2-10 in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. These three trends combine for a 27-3 system backing Cleveland. Bet the Indians Monday.

15* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -113

The Detroit Tigers (69-47) are showing excellent value as a small road favorite over the Chicago White Sox (44-72) Monday. The Tigers are one of the hottest teams in baseball and have a lot to play for, while the White Sox are one of the coldest and have little to play for.

The underrated Doug Fister is having yet another solid season in Detroit. The right-hander is 10-5 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in 23 starts, including 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in his last three starts.

Fister has posted a 3.44 ERA and 1.309 WHIP in eight career starts against Chicago. In his lone start against the White Sox this season, Fister allowed one earned run over eight innings on July 2nd. Chris Sale is 1-4 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in five career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter. Detroit is 26-9 in its last 35 overall. The Tigers are 5-0 in Fister's last 5 starts. The White Sox are 20-48 in their last 68 overall. Chicago is 0-6 in its last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in its previous game. Take the Tigers Monday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +142

The Chicago Cubs clearly are playing out their season. They just took two out of three at St. Louis, and now I look for them to take Game 1 of this series against fellow NL Central foe Cincinnati Monday.

Travis Wood is quietly having an excellent season in Chicago. The left-hander is 7-8 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 23 starts in 2013. The Reds are only hitting .243 and scoring 3.7 runs/game against left-handed starts this year.

Mat Latos is having a solid season for Cincinnati, but he has struggled in his last two starts at Chicago. He has given up seven earned runs and 18 base runners over 11 innings in those two starts for a 5.73 ERA and 1.636 WHIP.

In two career home starts against Cincinnati, Wood has given up just three earned runs and 12 base runners over 14 innings for a 1.93 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. The Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Cubs Monday.

15* Rays/Dodgers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 6.5

The Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers will take part in a pitcher's duel tonight on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. I'll back the UNDER 6.5 runs because of it.

Clayton Kershaw has been the best starter in baseball this season. The left-hander is 10-7 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.878 WHIP in 24 starts this season with the UNDER going 15-9. Kershaw is 6-4 with a 1.59 ERA in 13 home starts, and 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA in his last three starts.

While Jeremy Hellickson isn't having nearly as good of a year, he's plenty good enough to shut down the Dodgers tonight. The right-hander is 10-5 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.249 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The UNDER is 11-10-2 in those starts.

The UNDER is 34-15-2 in Rays last 51 games overall. The UNDER is 15-5-2 in Hellickson's last 22 road starts. The UNDER is 11-1-1 in Dodgers last 13 home games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Kershaw's last 6 starts with a total set of 6.5 or lower. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bills/Colts NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Buffalo +4

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland A's +110

The Oakland A's (65-50) trail the Texas Rangers by one game for first place in the AL West. While Oakland has a lot to play for at this point in the season, Toronto (54-62) does not as it sits in last place in the AL East.

I'll gladly back the underrated A.J. Griffin as an underdog today. Griffin has gone 10-8 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.099 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The right-hander has never lost to Toronto, going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in three career starts against the Blue Jays.

R.A. Dickey simply does not enjoy pitching at home in hitter-friendly Toronto. The knuckleballer is 4-6 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.354 WHIP in 12 home starts this year. He has given up 18 homers at home compared to just 7 on the road. Plus, Dickey is 1-3 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in nine career starts against Oakland.

The A's are 55-23 in their last 78 vs. a team with a losing record. Griffin is 10-4 (+8.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Griffin is 17-4 (+13.6 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Jays are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the A's Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -147

The Los Angeles Dodgers will run away with this one tonight over the Tampa Bay Rays. Los Angeles is the hottest team in baseball having won 34 of its last 42 games overall. After erasing a 6-0 deficit to win 7-6 yesterday, this team clearly has something special going.

With Zach Greinke on the mound, they'll continue this torrid run. Greinke has gone 9-3 with a 3.40 ERA in 19 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA in nine home starts. The Dodgers are 8-1 in those nine starts.

Roberto Hernandez is 6-11 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.299 WHIP in 21 starts this season. Hernandez is 1-7 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.327 WHIP in nine road starts in 2013.

Greinke is 34-4 (+28.4 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Dodgers Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore Orioles -123

The Baltimore Orioles have a lot to play for at 64-51 on the season. The San Francisco Giants have little hope at 51-64 on the year. After a big 5-2 extra innings win last night, I look for the Orioles to come back with another victory in Game 2 Saturday.

Wei-Yin Chen has gone 6-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 13 starts this season for Baltimore, and 3-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in eight road starts.

Chad Gaidin is having a solid season in limited action for the Giants. However, Gaudin is 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Orioles are 4-0 in Chen's last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog. San Francisco is 0-5 in its last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. These four trends combine for a 19-0 system backing Baltimore. Take the Orioles Saturday.

15* NFL Friday Night Line Mistake on Kansas City Chiefs +3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

20* NFL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -1.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Friday Mound Mismatch on Miami Marlins +191

The Miami Marlins are showing excellent value as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog to the Atlanta Braves tonight. Given the edge they have on the mound, I look for the Marlins to put an end to Atlanta's 13-game winning streak.

Miami's Jacob Turner has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this year. The right-hander is 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.203 WHIP in 12 starts this season. Turner is also 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta.

Brandon Beachy just recently returned from Tommy John surgery, and he may never be the same. Beachy has been rocked in two starts this year, posting a 9.00 ERA and 1.600 WHIP while allowing 10 earned runs and three homers over 10 innings.

Beachy is 4-10 (-12.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more in his career. Beachy is 5-14 (-13.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents in his career. Bet the Marlins Friday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +154

The Washington Nationals should not be getting this much respect Friday. They were just swept by the Atlanta Braves last series to drop to 54-60 on the season. Had they swept that series, they would have gotten back to .500 on the season. Now, the Nationals are essentially done for.

John Lannan has been an underrated starter throughout his career in this league. He has gone 3-4 with a 4.10 ERA in 12 starts this season. He clearly likes sticking it to his former team, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two starts against the Nationals in 2013.

Dan Haren is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The right-hander is 6-11 with a 5.14 ERA in 20 starts this season. Haren has been at his worst at home this year, going 4-4 with a 6.08 ERA in nine starts.

Haren is 0-4 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.436 WHIP in seven career starts against Philadelphia. In fact, his teams are 0-7 over those seven starts, so he has never beaten the Phillies. Take Philadelphia Friday.

20* Seahawks/Chargers NFL Network BAILOUT on Seattle -2.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NFL Thursday Night Line Mistake on St. Louis Rams +4

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians +147

After losing the first three games of this series, the Cleveland Indians now trail the Detroit Tigers by six games for 1st place in the AL Central. They will be highly motivated to win Game 4 tonight and avoid the sweep.

I like their chances with the underrated Zach McAllister on the mound. The right-hander has been dominant at home this season, going 3-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in seven home starts.

McCallister has also posted an impressive 2.28 ERA in four career starts against Detroit. While Max Scherzer is having a solid season, he has struggled against the Indians in the past. Scherzer has posted a 4.59 ERA in 14 career starts against Cleveland.

The Indians are 10-1 (+10.9 Units) against the money line off 2 straight home losses against division rivals over the last 2 seasons. They are bouncing back to outscore their opponents 6.6 to 3.4 in this spot, or by an average of 3.2 runs/game. Bet Cleveland Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -110

The Texas Rangers have won eight of their last nine games overall to pull within one game of the Oakland A's for the AL West lead. With the edge they have on the mound tonight, the Rangers have an excellent chance to pull even with Oakland should the A's lose to the Reds.

Alexi Ogando is 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA over 13 starts this season. Ogando has never lost to the Angels, going 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Tommy Hanson is simply getting too much respect from the books tonight. The right-hander is 4-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.540 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.597 WHIP in eight home starts.

The Rangers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Texas is 5-0 in Ogando's last 5 starts when its opponent allows 5 runs or more in its previous game. The Angels are 0-8 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Texas. Bet the Rangers Wednesday.

Note - I have changed this selection from a 15* to a 20* play.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles -127

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of this Interleague series Tuesday. The Orioles (61-51) trail the Red Sox by six games for 1st place in the AL East, making this a very important series.

Bud Norris was quietly a solid acquisition for the Orioles at the trade deadline. The right-hander has gone 7-9 with a 3.89 ERA in 22 starts this season. Norris is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in four career starts against San Diego.

Edinson Volquez is one of the worst starters the league has to offer. The right-hander is 8-8 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.591 WHIP In 23 starts this season. Volquez has never beaten Baltimore, going 0-1 (0-3 money line) with a 6.43 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in three career starts against the Orioles.

The Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series. Baltimore is 26-10 in its last 36 games following an off day. The Orioles are 49-22 in their last 71 games following a loss. The Padres are 4-15 in their last 19 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Orioles Tuesday.