20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +12.5

Virginia Tech’s injury report is a mess.  They were missing double-digit players due to Covid-19 last week against North Carolina.  They trailed 42-17 early in the 3rd quarter before the Tar Heels let their foot off the gas and resulted in a 56-45 UNC victory.

That high-scoring game had to take a lot out of Virginia Tech.  Their soft as butter defense was gashed for 656 total yards by UNC.  They will still be feeling the after-affects of that game heading into this showdown with Boston College even if they get a few players back from Covid-19 absences.  Either way, they should not be double-digit favorites over Boston College.

The Eagles are off to a 3-1 start this season that includes an impressive upset win at Duke 26-6 and an upset win over Pittsburgh at home.  Their only loss came to one of the best teams in the country in North Carolina by a final of 22-26.  They were only outgained by 48 yards by the Tar Heels.

That gives these teams two common opponents, and going off that Boston College has fared better against Duke and UNC than Virginia Tech has.  They outscored UNC and Duke by a combined 16 points, while Virginia Tech was outscored by a a combined 4 points against those two teams.  They only beat Duke 38-31.  If anything, Boston College has been the better team to this point and should not be a double-digit dog.

The Eagles are 20-5-1 ATS int emir last 26 conference games.  Virginia Tech is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite.  Boston College is 53-33 ATS in its last 86 games as a road underdog, including 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games as a road dog.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including outright wins each of the last two seasons.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +5.5

It’s definitely a good time to ‘buy low’ on Mississippi State this week.  I had Kentucky against them last week and didn’t really have to sweat it because Mississippi State just kept making mistake after mistake with six turnovers in their 24-2 loss to the Wildcats.  That came a week after committing four turnovers in an upset loss to Arkansas after upsetting LSU to open the season.

That makes 14 turnovers for Mississippi State through three games, which is the most int he country.  Mike Leach will be preaching ball security this week, and they won’t be committing four-plus turnovers again to give the game away.

This is a tough spot for Texas A&M after playing two of the best teams in the country in Alabama and Florida the last two weeks.  I don’t believe they’ll have much left in the tank for Mississippi State this week, and they certainly won’t be as excited to play the Bulldogs as they were Alabama and Florida.

The Bulldogs have too good of stats to be a 1-2 team to this point, which is why it’s a ‘buy low’ opportunity.  They are outgaining their opponents by 157 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play thus far.  Their defense has been dynamite in holding three SEC opponents to just 286 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play.

Texas A&M is 2-1 despite getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play thus far.  They are giving up 6.7 yards per play defensively, which is 2.5 yards per play more than Mississippi State is allowing.  And QB KJ Costello should have a big game against a Texas A&M defense that is giving up 71.6% completions, 299 passing yards per game and 10.2 yards per attempt.  The Bulldogs average 404 passing yards per game in Leach’s Air Raid attack.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Mississippi State) - with a turnover margin of -2 per game or worse on the season, after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1992.  This trend just goes to show that it’s a good move to back teams with poor turnover differentials over multiple games in a row.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Duke +4.5

The Duke Blue Devils are one of the best one-win teams in the country.  They are much better than their 1-4 record would indicate.  The problem for them has been turnovers as they have committed a whopping 19 turnovers already and have a -11 differential on the season.  These are the teams that I like to back because there’s some positive regression coming for the Blue Devils.

David Cutcliffe usually coaches a very smart Duke team year after year that exceeds expectations because of playing the game the right way.  But that hasn’t happened thus far, though they’ve shown signs of getting things turned around.  They covered their last two games, only losing 31-38 to Virginia Tech as 11.5-point dogs.

Then last week they dominated Syracuse worse than the 38-24 score would even indicate. They lost the turnover battle 4-0 in that game yet still won by 14.  They outgained Syracuse 645 to 286 in that game, or by 359 total yards.  It was worse than anyone had beaten Syracuse yet this season.

While Duke will play hard knowing it has a bye next week to rest, NC State is in a sandwich spot here.  The Wolf Pack are coming off three straight road games against Virginia Tech, Pitt and Virginia pulling upsets against the latter two.  And now they have a road trip to North Carolina next week on deck.  They will be looking ahead to that in-state rivalry and not giving the 1-4 Blue Devils the proper focus they deserve.  This has upset spot written all over it.

Unlike Duke, NC State has taken care of the football with only four turnovers in four games.  They are due for some negative turnover regression, especially after forcing four turnovers against Virginia last week that aided their upset victory.  And while NC State has a decent offense, their defense is soft as butter.  They give up 447 yards per game on the season and are getting outgained by 45 yards per game despite being 3-1.  Duke is outgaining opponents by 20.4 yards per game despite being 1-4.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Wolfpack and ‘buy low’ on the Blue Devils.

Duke is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  Dave Doeren is 0-6 ATS after a game where they forced four or more turnovers as the coach of the Wolfpack, having never covered in this situation in his eight seasons here and losing outright by an average of 16.9 points per game.  NC State is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games off a conference road win.  

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC State) - after scoring 20 points or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent that scored 24 points or more in the first half last game are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC State) - off two consecutive road wins, in the first half of the season are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS since 1992.  Take Duke Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh +13.5

The Pitt Panthers are two points away from being 5-0 this season.  Their consecutive losses to NC State (29-30) and Boston College (30-31) have them undervalued right now.  And now they are catching nearly two touchdowns against the Miami Hurricanes this week.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Pittsburgh.

It’s also time to ’sell high’ on Miami after their 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start.  The Hurricanes were exposed by Clemson last week in their 17-42 loss that wasn’t even that close.  Miami was held to just 210 total yards while committing three turnovers.  They gave up 550 total yards to Clemson and were outgained by 340 yards.  

It’s going to be hard for Miami to get up for Pittsburgh a week after playing one of the best teams in the country in Clemson, so this definitely has ‘hangover’ written all over it.  I like the quotes coming out of the Pittsburgh locker room about how they’ll bounce back this week.  I think they will be the more motivated team for sure.  

It’s a loaded Pitt team still capable of winning the Coastal with 15 returning starters and an elite defense and passing attack.  The Panthers only give up 264 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through five games this season.  They are averaging 284 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt on offense.

Plays against home teams (Miami) - an excellent offensive team that is scoring 35 or more points per game after a loss by 21 points or more are 67-31 (68.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Miami’s early wins against UAB, Louisville and FSU don’t look so good now.  The Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +3.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks are 1-2 this season and it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them here.  Their two losses came against two of the best teams in the SEC in Tennessee and Florida, and they actually played well in both losses.  They only lost 27-31 to Tennessee and were only outgained by 15 yards.  And they lost 24-38 to Florida in a game that was closer than the final score as they were only outgained by 19 yards.

The Gamecocks took out their frustration on Vanderbilt last week in a 41-7 road win and dominated every bit as much as the final score showed.  They outgained the Commodores by 236 yards in the win.  And keep in mind that’s a Vanderbilt team that only lost 12-17 to Texas A&M in their opener.

Now South Carolina will ‘upset’ an Auburn team that could easily be 0-3 right now.  Auburn needed a last-second field goal to beat Arkansas 30-28 last week as a 13.5-point favorite.  They lost 6-27 to Georgia the week before and were outgained by 226 yards.  And they did not deserve to beat Kentucky in their opener in a misleading 29-13 final that saw them get outgained by 60 yards by the Wildcats.  There was a 14-point swing in that game after the refs missed a TD by Kentucky on review that changed the whole game.

Auburn is 0-6 ATS off a home conference win over the last three seasons.  South Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games off a blowout conference win by 21 points or more.    Auburn is a complete fraud as the 15th-ranked team in the country currently and will get exposed by the Gamecocks this weekend.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

20* BYU/Houston Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston +5.5

I was very impressed with Houston in their season opener against Tulane last week.  They were sloppy early, which I expected, but the way they came back and won with ease from a 24-7 deficit shows they are the real deal this season.  They outscored the Green Wave 42-7 the rest the way after they finally quit turning the ball over.

The Cougars lost the turnover battle 5-0 yet still won by 18 points.  They outgained the Green Wave by 265 total yards and held them to just 211 total yards.  This is one of the most experienced teams in the country as Houston brought back 19 starters in Year 2 under Dana Holgorsen.  It’s clear to me after just one game that this is going to be a contender in the AAC.

BYU is getting a lot of credit for beating up on a soft schedule thus far, going 4-0 against the likes of Navy, Troy, LA Tech and UTSA.  This is by far BYU’s stiffest test yet.  And the Cougars struggled with UTSA as a 34-point favorite last week.  They only beat UTSA 27-20 in that game.

Now BYU is working on a short week with five days to prepare for Houston.  Meanwhile, the Cougars have seven days to prepare for BYU after playing last Thursday, which is a nice advantage.  And BYU has cluster injuries along the offensive line.  Three starters in G Tristen Hoge, C James Empey and G Kieffer Longson are all questionable.  And backup guard Keanu Salaepaga is doubtful.  Offensive line injuries always get overlooked in the point spread in college football, and that is the case in this game.

Kalani Sitake is 0-6 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards per game in the last three games as the coach of BYU.  This is a system that has never lost in the five years that Sitake has been at the helm.  After beating up on a soft schedule thus far, BYU meets its match this week.  Bet Houston Friday.

15* Rays/Astros ALCS ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay -130

After getting up 3-0, the Tampa Bay Rays have lost the last two games in this series to the Houston Astros.  They will shut the door in Game 6 tonight and move onto the World Series.

Blake Snell is 6-3 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.203 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  He held the Astros to one run in five innings of a 2-1 victory in Game 1 and now has a 2.16 ERA in his last two starts against them.

Framber Valdez gave up two runs and eight base runners in six innings opposite Snell in Game 1.  He is 6-4 with a 3.61 ERA in 12 starts this season.

The Rays are 32-13 in their last 45 games off a loss by two runs or less.  Tampa Bay is 15-3 in its last 18 games following a loss overall.  The Rays are 38-13 in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Rays Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-139)

The Dodgers have now scored 22 runs in the past 12 innings.  You could say they are feeling it at the plate.  I expect them to hang another big number on the Braves here in Game 4 to even this series at two games apiece.

Clayton Kershaw missed his scheduled Game 2 start with back spasms but is good to go for Game 4.  Kershaw is 8-2 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.816 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  He has never lost to the Braves, going 7-0 with a 1.49 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.

The Dodgers are 37-10 after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  They are winning by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Georgia State/Arkansas State ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia State +3.5

Georgia State is a team on the rise in the Sun Belt.  The Panthers went 7-6 last year and made their third bowl game in five seasons.  Shawn Elliott is doing a heck of a job with the program as he enters his fourth season with his best team yet.  I say that because Georgia State returns its most starters (16) of his tenure and he has all of his players in place now.

The offense welcomes back eight starters.  They have four starters back on the offensive line and each of their top three receivers return.  They do have to replace their QB and RB, but I like junior RB Destin Coates, who averaged 6.7 yards per carry last year with 546 yards and seven touchdowns and was their most explosive back.  The defense has eight starters and 10 of the top 12 tacklers back, so this should be Elliott’s best stop unit yet.  

I really like what I’ve seen from Georgia State thus far.  They are 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS through two games.  They took Louisiana to overtime, a team that was expected to challenge for the top Group of 5 spot and one that upset Iowa State in Week 1.  They lost 31-34 as 17-point dogs.  Then they bounced back with an impressive 49-29 win over East Carolina as 1.5-point dogs.

Freshman QB Cornelius Brown is a problem with his dual-threat ability.  He has thrown for 434 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for 90 yards and a score.  Coates has proven he can be the featured back this year with 263 yards and three scores on 57 carries.  There is a lot to like about this offense.

Arkansas State played well against Memphis and Kansas State to open the season before Covid-19 hit the team.  Then they lost 23-52 at Coastal Carolina as 3.5-point favorites before coming back last week to beat FCS Central Arkansas 50-27.

Georgia State has a huge scheduling advantage in this spot.  The Panthers have had two weeks to prepare for Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves just played on Saturday, so they have just four days to get ready for Georgia State.  And keep in mind Georgia State upset Arkansas State 52-38 last year as 6.5-point home dogs, gaining 722 total yards and 39 first downs on the Red Wolves in a dominant win.  I really think the wrong team is favored here.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Georgia State) - off a home win, with 16 starters returning are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Georgia State Thursday.

20* Coastal Carolina/Louisiana ESPN No-Brainer on Louisiana -7.5

The Louisiana-Lafeyette Rajin’ Cajuns are probably the best Group of 5 team in the country.  They returned 14 starters from a team that went 11-3 last season with seven on offense and seven on defense.  And they have opened 3-0 this season.

Their 31-14 upset win over Iowa State in the opener looks better and better by the week now that Iowa State is 3-0 in the Big 12.  They predictably had a bit of a letdown against a quality Georgia State team the next week, but still won in overtime 34-31.  And then they were missing a ton of players due to Covid-19 in their 20-18 win over Georgia Southern.

I think those narrow wins as 17-point favorites over Georgia State and 12-point favorites over Georgia Southern have the Rajin’ Cajuns actually undervalued right now.  They will get a lot of players back from Covid-19, including star RB Elijah Mitchell, and they have not played since September 26th.  They will be rested and ready to make a statement on this standalone National TV game on a Wednesday night.

Conversely, I think Coastal Carolina is being way overvalued after a 3-0 start against a very easy schedule.  They beat lowly Kansas in the opener thanks to winning the turnover battle 3-0.  They beat FCS Campbell, and they took advantage of an Arkansas State team that had Covid-19 problems of their own leading into that game.

While I’ll admit Coastal Carolina is improved this year, I don’t think they are improved enough to stay within 7.5 points of Louisiana.  They lost 48-7 to Louisiana as 14-point home underdogs last year and were outgained by 328 total yards in that loss.  Now they are only 7.5-point road dogs in the rematch this year.  There’s clearly value with the Rajin’ Cajuns in this game.

Coastal Carolina is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette Wednesday.

25* MLB Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-114)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are in must-win mode tonight after falling down 2-0 in this series to the Atlanta Braves.  I fully expect them to get the job done in blowout fashion tonight.  They have gotten through Fried and Anderson, Atlanta’s two best starters, and now will have the advantage on the mound in Game 3.

Julio Urias is 3-0 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Dodgers.  He’ll be opposed by Kyle Wright, who is 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in nine starts this season.  The Dodgers went off late in Game 2 for 7 runs in the final three innings and will have some confidence at the plate heading into Game 3.

The Dodgers are 36-10 after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons and outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  Los Angeles is 47-19 in its last 66 games following a loss.  The Dodgers are 62-23 in their last 85 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* Rays/Astros ALCS ANNIHILATOR on Houston +102

The Houston Astros have really been unfortunate not to win either of the first two games in this series.  They’ve had a combined 19 hits in the first two games but only three runs to show for it due to leaving 21 runners on base.  The Rays only have 10 hits and 12 left on base.

Now the Astros actually have the advantage on the mound over the Rays for the first time in this series.  Jose Urquidy is 1-1 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in seven starts this season. He’ll be opposed by Ryan Yarbrough, who is 0-4 with a 4.05 ERA in nine starts.

I think we’re getting the Astros at a great value here as underdogs in a must-win game with their season essentially on the line.  The Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 playoff games as underdogs.  Houston is 48-21 in its last 69 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the Astros in Game 3 Tuesday.

20* Bills/Titans AFC No-Brainer on Buffalo -3.5

What a mess the last couple weeks have been for the Tennessee Titans.  They have now received a total of 24 positive Covid-19 tests dating back to September 24th.  But they finally went two days in a row without a positive and now will be able to play this game Tuesday night.

All these positive tests have certainly made practice and prep for this game against Buffalo less than ideal to say the least.  And I have to think they will be the less prepared team in this game, which is bad news going up against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Bills.

The Titans are very fortunate to be 3-0 against a very soft schedule, too.  They have three wins against the Broncos, Jaguars and Vikings by a combined 6 points.  Those three teams have a combined record of 3-11 this season.

Most concerning is a Tennessee defense that is allowing 24.7 points and 422.3 yards per game against those three teams, which don’t have great offenses, especially the Broncos and Jaguars.  And now they have to face one of the league’s best offenses in the Bills, who average 30.8 points and 409.8 yards per game on the season.

Buffalo’s defensive numbers haven’t been up to par for the level of talent they have, but they’ve still managed to go 4-0.  And a lot of that is due to injuries.  But the Bills are starting to get healthier on that side of the ball, and having a few extra days here to get ready could get some guys back in the lineup that are listed as questionable.

Tennessee is 0-7 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after allowing 30 points or more in two straight games against an opponent that scored 17 points or more in two straight are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Bills Tuesday.

20* Chargers/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +8

The Los Angeles Chargers are much better than their 1-3 record would indicate.  After going on the road and beating the Bengals 16-13, the Chargers have lost three straight.  But they’ve lost to three very hot teams in the Chiefs, Panthers and Bucs all by 7 points or less.

They lost 20-23 (OT) to Kansas City and outgained the Chiefs by 65 yards.  That game alone against the defending Super Bowl champs shows what they are capable of.  They lost 16-21 to Carolina despite outgaining the Panthers by 134 yards.  And last week they blew a 24-7 lead and lost to the Bucs, 31-38.

The Chargers should not be catching more than a touchdown against the Saints.  I would argue the Chargers actually have the better quarterback in Justin Herbert, who has impressed as a rookie in his three starts.  Herbert is completing 72% of his passes for 931 yards and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.

Drew Brees has really started to show his age this season.  Of course, injuries on offense have not helped matters as the Saints are just 2-2 this season.  WR Michael Thomas has been out with an ankle injury since Week 1 and is questionable to return this week.  Both starting tackles in Ryan Ramczyk and Andrus Peat are questionable this week, as is TE Jared Cook.

The Saints have also shown a lot of holes defensively this season and a lot of that has to do with injuries as well.  Three of their best players in CB Marshon Lattimore, CB Janoris Jenkins and DE Marcus Davenport are all questionable this week.  The Saints are giving up 30.8 points per game on the season, so it’s tough to trust them to lay 8 points with that kind of defense.

The Chargers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 road games off three or more consecutive losses.  Los Angeles is 33-15-4 ATS in its last 52 games as a road underdog.  The Chargers are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog overall.  The Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* Astros/Rays ALCS ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay -120 

Lance McCullers Jr. has had one of the most drastic home/run splits in baseball in his career.  That has been the case again this season as McCullers is 0-3 with a 7.57 ERA and 1.792 WHIP in seven starts away from home. 

Charlie Morton is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts.  He held the potent Yankees to just one earned run in five innings in an 8-4 victory by Tampa Bay in his most recent outing. 

McCullers Jr. is just 3-20 (-19.3 units) against the money line on the road with a line of +125 to -125 in his career.  Bet the Rays in Game 2 Monday. 

20* Vikings/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +7

The Minnesota Vikings are 1-3 this season but their three losses have come to teams that are a combined 10-1 this season.  They did not look good the first couple weeks against the Packers and Colts, but they’ve turned it around since.

After a tough 30-31 loss to the unbeaten Titans, the Vikings went on the road last week and crushed Houston 31-23.  Their offense has really gotten going the last couple weeks as they had 464 total yards against the Titans and 410 more against the Texans.  Justin Jefferson has back-to-back 100-yard games and is clearly a great replacement for Diggs.  And Dalvin Cook is simply a playmaker out of the backfield.

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Seahawks, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  They could easily be 1-3.  They got a goal-line stand against the Patriots to preserve a 35-30 win, picked off Dak Prescott in the end zone to preserve a 38-31 win, and held the Dolphins to five field goals which was the difference in a 31-23 win.

Now the Seahawks are in their biggest favorite role of the season, laying 7 points to the Vikings this week.  The Vikings can match the Seahawks score for score because Seattle has one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Indeed, the Seahawks rank 32nd in the NFL in giving up 476.8 yards per game.  It will catch up with them eventually, and I believe it does this week.  Injuries continue to pile up on the defensive side of the football for Seattle.  The Seahawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +6 

The Los Angeles Lakers got a monster game from Lebron James and a solid one from Anthony Davis in Game 5 and still couldn’t beat the Heat.  That’s a great sign for the resilient Heat moving forward in this series. 

Once again, the Heat are catching too many points in Game 6.  They were only getting 4.5 in Game 1, and oddsmakers have adjusted their lines drastically since.  They have gone 3-0-1 ATS in the last four games in this series while being anywhere from a 6 to 10-point dog.  And now they are 6-point dogs for Game 6. 

Amazingly, the Lakers have made more 3-pointers than the Heat in four of five games in this series.  They were tied at 14 apiece in Game 5, but the Lakers have still made 12 more 3-pointers in this series than the Heat.  And Miami is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA, while the Lakers are one of the worst.  Maybe this is finally the game the Heat make more, even though they’ve proven they don’t need to to hang in this series. 

Miami is 15-4 ATS in all playoff games this season.  The Heat have bee grossly underrated all postseason, and they continue to be in Game 6 tonight.  It has to be deflating to LeBron to play as well as he did in Game 5 and still come up short.  It’s going to give Miami belief, and it’s going to give LeBron and company doubt.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Sunday. 

25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins +8.5

The Miami Dolphins are 1-3 and desperate for a win.  Their three losses this season have comes against three teams that are a combined 10-2 this season in the Patriots, Bills and Seahawks.  Both both losses are by the Patriots, who lost to the Chiefs and Seahawks and gave both a run for their money.

The Dolphins had their chances to beat the Patriots but a INT inside the 5-yard line late prevented the comeback.  The Dolphins hung right with the Bills and only lost 28-31.  And they lost to the Seahawks by 8 last week, but that game was much closer than the 23-31 final would indicate.

The Dolphins had to settle for five field goals on their first five scoring drives, so they couldn’t capitalize in the red zone.  They also had a busted coverage right before halftime that turned a 1-point game into an 8-point game going into intermission.  The Seahawks got the ball back with 24 seconds left after yet another Miami field goal, and somehow managed to score a touchdown with three seconds left.  The Dolphins were only outgained by 26 yards by Seattle.

And while the Dolphins have one of the best injury situations in the NFL, the 49ers have one of the worst.  They had two more starters go down with injury last week in CB K’Waun Williams and DE Ezekiel Ansah, and both are out this week.  Ansah was signed to replace Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, who are both on injured reserve, as are DT Solomon Thomas, CB Richard Sherman and C Weston Richburn.  QB Jimmy G could return this week, but he’s really not much of an upgrade over Nick Mullens.  And they have another handful of players questionable.

The 49ers are 2-2 this season with their only wins coming against arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Jets and Giants.  They lost outright as home favorites of -6.5 or more to both the Cardinals and Eagles, and those losses look worse by the day, too.  And this is a role they have struggled in for years.

In fact, the 49ers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine regular season games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or more dating back to 2014.  More concerning yet is that the 49ers are 3-6 SU in this role.  So don’t even consider using the 49ers in teasers or survivor pools this week.  I have a large bet on the Dolphins +8.5 this week and some at +300 on the money line as well.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Bengals +13

The Cincinnati Bengals have been extremely competitive this season and it’s all because of Joe Burrow.  All four of their games have been decided by 8 points or fewer and I believe there’s a good chance this one is as well.

After losing to the Chargers by 3 and Browns by 5, the Bengals tied the Eagles 23-23 in Week 3.  Then they had their coming out party last week in a 33-25 win over Jacksonville.  They racked up 505 total yards in the win behind huge games from Burrow and Joe Mixon. With Burrow and an underrated arsenal of weapons at RB and receiver, the Bengals won’t be out of any game this season.

That’s why I like backing them catching 13 points against the Baltimore Ravens this week.  The Ravens let Washington hang around last week and won 31-17 as a 14-point favorite.  Cincinnati is a lot better than Washington, so catching 13 points with the Bengals is a really nice value.  And keep in mind the Ravens only outgained Washington by 7 yards in that game.  In fact, the Ravens are actually getting outgained by 27.2 yards per game on the season.  They aren’t as dominant as everyone makes them out to be.

Plays against home favorites of 10.5 or more points (Baltimore) - after having won two of their last three games, in October games are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1983.  Cincinnati is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog.  Baltimore is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite.  The Ravens simply should not be favored by double-digits here.  Roll with the Bengals Sunday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Kentucky -1.5

The Kentucky Wildcats are 0-2 this season and desperate for their first win.  They could easily be 2-0.  They had a 14-point swing in the Auburn loss where the refs took away a TD from them and it resulted in a TD the other way.  And last week they missed and extra point in OT to lose to Ole Miss.

This is still a very strong Kentucky team that returned 15 starters this season.  They really want to right the ship this week.  They lead the country in 3rd-down conversion percentage, so they are putting their offense in great situations.  And have outgained Auburn and Ole Miss by 80 yards per game despite losing those two.

Mississippi State’s 44-34 win over LSU in the opener was clearly fools’ gold.  They took advantage of an LSU team that lost 15 players to the NFL.  And last week they came back and promptly laid an egg in a 14-21 home loss to Arkansas as 16.5-point favorites.  That’s an Arkansas team that had lost 20 straight SEC games prior and is terrible to say the least.

Kentucky is 7-0 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last three seasons. Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive under over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +9

The Kansas State Wildcats have responded nicely from their shocking loss to Arkansas State in the opener.  They went on the road and beat Oklahoma outright as 28-point underdogs, and avoided the letdown last week by beating Texas Tech 31-21.

I realize that game against Texas Tech was closer than the final score, but it was a flat spot for the Wildcats and they still came away victorious.  And now we have Kansas State in the role I like to back them in, which is the underdog role here against TCU.

I think the Horned Frogs are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after upsetting Texas 33-31 as 10.5-point road underdogs last week.  And now they have to try and come back and win by double-digits to cover this 9-point spread against a feisty Kansas State team that makes you work for everything you get.

The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and three of those were decided by a touchdown or less, including the last two.  There’s a very good chance this game is a one-score game in the 4th quarter, which is why there’s a ton of value catching the Wildcats as 9-point dogs in this matchup.

Chris Klieman is 6-0 ATS after a game where his team committed zero turnovers as the coach of Kansas State.  Gary Patterson is 2-12 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of TCU.  Patterson is 2-10 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog as the coach of TCU.  

The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in their previous game.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog.  The Wildcats are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as underdogs overall.  TCU is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorite.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech +12.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a huge letdown spot.  They just pulled off their first home win over Oklahoma in 60 years, which is astonishing.  And now they have to try and get up to face a Texas Tech team that is 0-2 in the Big 12.  I see the Cyclones coming out flat and for the Red Raiders to give them more than they bargained for.

Conversely, we have a Texas Tech team that is highly motivated for that first Big 12 win.  They blew a 15-point lead in the final three minutes against Texas and lost in overtime in their Big 12 opener.  And last week they probably deserved to beat Kansas State in a 21-31 loss.  They outgained the Wildcats 471 to 404, or by 67 total yards.

Texas Tech starting QB Alan Bowman did get injured early in that loss to Kansas State, but I was impressed by Utah State transfer Henry Columbi, who nearly led them back from a 14-0 halftime deficit.  He replaced Bowman and went 30-of-42 for 244 yards and two touchdowns with one interception.  He also showed a dual-threat ability with 40 yards on eight carries.  So I’m not worried at all if Columbi starts over Bowman, who is currently questionable with an ankle injury.

The Red Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  The Cyclones are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorites, including their outright loss to Louisiana in the opener as 13-point favorites.  Iowa State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  The Cyclones just have a way of playing to their competition, and this couldn’t be a worse spot for them off their upset win over Oklahoma.  Take Texas Tech Saturday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +7.5

The Miami Heat were 4.5-point dogs in Game 1 of this series.  They are now 7.5-point dogs in Game 5.  There’s value with the Heat, just as there has been in each of the last three games as they were 7.5, 9 and 10-point dogs.  They went 2-0-1 ATS in those three games.

The remarkable part about this series is that the Heat are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA while the Lakers are one of the worst.  But the Lakers have made more 3-pointers than the Heat in every game thus far and lead with 59 makes compared to just 45 for the Heat.  I guess you could say the Heat are due to out-shoot them.

Getting Bam Adebayo back for Game 4 was huge for the Heat and it was a one-possession game almost the entire way.  He has two more days to recover and heal up now after they last played on Tuesday.  The Heat won’t go down without a fight, and I love them catching 7.5 points in this elimination game.  Miami is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Friday.

15* Yankees/Rays ALDS ANNIHILATOR on New York -150 

Gerrit Cole has been the most dominant starter in baseball over the past three seasons.  He gets the ball for Game 5 tonight after guiding the Yankees to a victory in Game 1. 

Cole has a 42-13 record over the past three seasons with an ERA of 2.88 or better in all three.  Getting him at -150 is actually a pretty big discount here.  Cole should be closer to a -200 favorite. 

That’s especially the case when he’s up against Tyler Glasnow, who is only on two days’ rest after pitching in Game 2.  He threw 93 pitchers over five innings in Game 2, giving up four runs and a pair of home runs to Giancarlo Stanton.  Roll with the Yankees in Game 5 Friday. 

15* Louisville/Georgia Tech ACC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 64.5

Two teams desperate for a win who are both coming off two straight losses square off Friday night when the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets host the Louisville Cardinals.  It’s also two teams coming off two sloppy performances, so taking care of the football will be a priority.

Georgia Tech has committed five turnovers in its last two games, which has made its defensive numbers look worse than they really are.  For example, the Yellow Jackets only allowed 357 total yards to Syracuse last time out, but gave up 37 points.  Look for taking care of the football to be a priority.

Louisville has committed six turnovers in its last two games against Miami and Pittsburgh.  The defense still held strong and limited the Panthers to just 23 points and 376 total yards last time out.  And this Georgia Tech offense isn’t very good, scoring just 19.0 points per game on the season, so the Louisville defense should have some success again.

Georgia Tech is 9-1 to the UNDER in its last 10 home games after a game where they committed four or more turnovers.  The Yellow Jackets are 10-2 UNDER in their last 12 games as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Yellow Jackets last 21 games following a bye week.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Bucs/Bears FOX No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3.5

The Tampa Bay Bucs have really improved rapidly since a season-opening loss to the Saints on the road.  And even that game wasn’t as bad as the score as they lost the turnover battle 3-0 and held the Saints to 271 total yards.

The Bucs have reeled off three straight wins by a combined 39 points since.  And now they head to Chicago to face a Bears team that really could be 0-4 right now, but they’re 3-1 and overvalued as a result.

The Bears came back from 17 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Lions in their opener.  They had to come up with a defensive stand on the final drive to beat the Giants 17-13.  They came back from 16 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Falcons.  And last week they lost 11-19 to the Colts in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score would indicate.  

The Colts held the Bears to just 3 points through the first 58 minutes of that game.  But the Bears got a garbage TD late and a 2-point conversion to turn a 19-3 game into a 19-11 one.  It’s clear that Nick Foles is not the savior and probably not even much of an upgrade over Mitch Trubisky, who at least has a dual-threat ability.

Tampa Bay is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after scoring 35 points or more last game.  This Bucs offense is humming, averaging 32.3 points per game in their last three.  Tom Brady threw for 369 yards and five touchdowns against a very good Chargers defense last week. The Bears are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Chicago is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Bucs Thursday.

15* Tulane/Houston AAC ANNIHILATOR on Tulane +7

The Tulane Green Wave already have three games under their belts while the Houston Cougars have yet to play a game due to Covid-19.  That’s a huge advantage for the Green Wave, and they should not be catching a full touchdown against the Cougars tonight because of it.

The Green Wave are very close to being 3-0 if not for a blown 24-0 halftime lead over Navy.  But they responded very well with a 66-24 win over Southern Miss as only 3.5-point favorites last time out.  They replaced the inept Keon Howard at QB in that game and went with Michael Pratt, who threw two touchdown passes while also rushing for 40 yards and a score on seven carries.  They are going with Pratt moving forward and I love the move.

Houston is getting a lot of hype due to having 19 returning starters.  But the Cougars went just 4-8 last season with their only wins over Prairie View A&M, UConn, North Texas and Tulsa, and I still question the talent on this team under Dana Holgorsen.  It’s one of those deals where they are going to need to prove it to me first, and I don’t think they are in a very good position to prove it playing in their first game of the season here.

Willie Fritz is 18-5 ATS off a non-conference games as a head coach.  Fritz is 26-12 ATS in the first half of the season as a head coach.  The Green Wave are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games on Turf.  The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Tulane Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland A’s +100

The Oakland A’s are now 3-0 in elimination games this postseason.  They came back from a 7-4 deficit yesterday in Game 3 and won 9-7.  This is a resilient team that has the belief they can come back and win this series, especially after that clutch Game 3 performance.

Frankie Montas will take the ball for the A’s today.  He is coming off one of his most dominant starts of the season.  He struck out 13 without allowing a single earned run in six innings of a 6-2 win over the Seattle Mariners last time out.  Montas has posted a solid 3.55 ERA in seven career starts against Houston.

Zach Greinke hasn’t been great for the Astros this season.  He is 3-3 with a 3.93 ERA in 13 starts, and 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA in his last three starts.  Greinke has allowed 7 earned runs in 11 innings and 3 homers in his last two starts against Oakland in 2020 for a 5.73 ERA.  Roll with the A’s in Game 4 Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A’s +100

The Oakland A’s will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep tonight against their hated rival in the Houston Astros.  They won two elimination games against the White Sox last series, and now they’ll need to win three this season, but it starts with Game 3 today.

Jesus Lazardo is 3-3 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Luzardo has never lost to the Astros, going 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in two starts against them, both of which came this season.

The Astros are 0-2 in Jose Urquidy’s two career starts against the A’s.  And this is a big spot for the youngster that I don’t know if he’ll be able to handle the best.  His stuff isn’t great as he has just 20 K’s in 34 innings this season.  The Astros should have a coming out party on him today.

The A’s are 29-10 in their last 39 during Game 3 of a series.  Oakland is 43-17 in its last 60 games following a loss.  Houston is 1-9 in its last 10 games after scoring five runs or more in its previous game.  The A’s are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.  Bet the A’s in Game 3 Wednesday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +7.5

What’s amazing is that the Miami Heat still won Game 3 despite making fewer 3-pointers than the Lakers for a 3rd straight game.  They won in blowout fashion even 115-104.  At some point the Heat being the 2nd-best 3-point shooting team in the NBA is going to show in this series.

The Lakers have now made 45 3-pointers in this series compared to just 34 for the Heat.  This should even itself over the course of the remainder of the series considering the Lakers are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA.

And there’s good news on the horizon for the Heat as Bam Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for this game, and he’s likely to play.  His defense on the inside is huge for this team.  And it makes sense that this line has went from 9.5 down to 7.5 for Game 4 with his expected return.

It’s still too high, and there’s not 7.5 points difference between these two teams.  Keep in mind the line was 4.5 for Game 1.  Bet the Heat in Game 4 Tuesday.

15* Yankees/Rays ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay -115

The Tampa Bay Rays will bounce back from a Game 1 loss today against the New York Yankees.  I like their chances thanks to the big advantage they have on the mound in this one tonight.

Tyler Glasnow is 6-1 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three.  Glasnow has posted a 3.70 ERA in five career starts against the Yankees, and a 1.54 ERA in his last two starts against them in 2020.

The Yankees will go with 21-year-old rookie Deivi Garcia, and he just cannot be trusted in this pressure situation.  Garcia is 3-2 with a 4.98 ERA in six starts this season, including 2-1 with a 7.02 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 13 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings.

Glasnow is 12-0 (+12.8 units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  The Yankees are 6-20 in their last 26 playoff games as underdogs.  The Rays are 13-3 in their last 16 games following a loss.  Tampa Bay is 51-20 in its last 71 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Rays Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A’s -107

The Oakland A’s were down 1-0 against the White Sox last series and won two elimination games.  They won’t be phased at all after losing Game 1 to the Astros in a game that completely changed on one error.

The A’s have the clear advantage on the mound today with Sean Manaea, who has a 3.37 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in his last three starts.  The Astros are hitting just .226 against left-handed starters this season.  Manaea has posted a 3.26 ERA and 1.186 WHIP In 13 career starts against Houston.

Framber Valdez has posted a 4.28 ERA in his five road starts this season.  This will be his first postseason start and he cannot be trusted.  Plus, the A’s are 12-3 against left-handed starters this season and scoring 5.0 runs per game.

Manaea is 15-3 (+11.9 units) against the money line in day games over the last three seasons.  The Astros are 3-8 in their last 11 games following a win.  The A’s are 39-12 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Oakland is 43-16 in its last 59 games following a loss.  Take the A’s Tuesday.

20* Falcons/Packers ESPN No-Brainer on Atlanta +7.5

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Green Bay Packers.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against the Vikings, Lions and Saints, who are a combined 2-7 this season.  They are coming off their big upset win over the overrated Saints on Sunday Night Football last week.

It’s also a great time to ‘buy low’ on the 0-3 Atlanta Falcons, who have lost to three teams that are a combined 7-2 on the season.  And keep in mind the Falcons were in all three of those games.  They had 506 total yards against the Seahawks, then blew a 15-point 4th quarter lead against the Cowboys and a 16-point 4th quarter lead against the Bears.

It’s clear the Falcons can play with anyone if they don’t beat themselves.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL in scoring 30 points per game and averaging 419 yards per game.  And there’s a good chance they get Julio Jones back from injury this week.

Speaking of injuries, Aaron Rodgers could be without his top two receivers this week, and there’s really not much talent at all behind Devante Adams and Allen Lazard.  Adams missed last week with a hamstring injury and is questionable, while Lazard had surgery on a core muscle and is out multiple weeks.  That’s a big blow as Lazard and Adams have combined for 30 receptions for 446 yards and four touchdowns through three games.

The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.  Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Lambeau Field.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

25* ALDS GAME OF THE YEAR on Oakland A’s -130

The Oakland A’s have a big advantage on the mound in Game 1 of this series.  It’s a series they have dominated this season in winning seven of 10 meetings with the Astros.  And it should be more of the same with Game 1 tonight.

Chris Bassitt is 6-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 12 starts this season for the A’s.  That includes 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.871 WHIP in his last three starts.  Bassitt is 3-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in eight career starts against the Astros.

Lance McCullers has had extreme home/away splits in his career.  It has continued this season as McCullers is 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in six road starts.  He has posted a 4.04 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in nine career starts against the A’s.

The Astros are 2-8 in their last 10 games following a win.  The A’s are 67-31 in their last 98 games as favorites.  Oakland is 45-20 in its last 65 vs. AL West opponents.  Bet the A’s in Game 1 Monday.

15* Eagles/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +7.5

This is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Philadelphia Eagles.  They have opened 0-2-1 this season despite being favored in all three games.  Now they have moved to whopping +7.5-point underdogs to the San Francisco 49ers this week.

It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on the 49ers, who are coming off two straight blowout victories over arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Jets and Giants.  The 49ers have the worst injury situation in the entire NFL and have been able to overcome it against those two teams.  But they won’t be able to against the Eagles, at least not enough to put them away by 8-plus points, which is what it’s going to take to cover this spread.

The 49ers are without five of their best defensive players in Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, Dre Greenlaw and Richard Sherman.  They are without C Richburg, RB Coleman, RB Mostert and they could be without QB Garoppolo and WR Samuel.  The Eagles also have some injuries, but they are nowhere near as bad as the situation for the 49ers.

The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in San Francisco. The 49ers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.  They lost outright as 7-point home favorites over the Cardinals in Week 1.  Roll with the Eagles Sunday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +9.5

The Miami Heat are the better 3-point shooting team than the Lakers in this series.  Yet, the Lakers have out-shot them in both of the first two games of this series.  I have to think the Heat will shoot better than the Lakers in 3 tonight with the law of averages.

The Lakers made 15 3-pointers in Game 1 compared to just 11 for Miami.  In Game 2, the Lakers made 16 while the Heat made only 11.  And the Heat are having to go small ball now and put more shooters on the floor with their injuries.  But there is a chance they get Adebayo back tonight, which would be huge for them.

The Heat are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss.  Miami is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  Miami is 23-8 ATS off a loss this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 3 Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +7

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Seattle Seahawks.  They have opened the season 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS despite having a terrible defense that gives up 28.7 points and 497 yards per game.  They just cannot be trusted in this price range with this awful of a defense.

The Seahawks are coming off two straight last-second home wins over the Patriots and Cowboys.  They stopped the Patriots at the 1-yard line to preserve that win, and then they picked off Dat Prescott in the end zone to preserve their win over the Cowboys last week.

Now this has the makings of a letdown spot for Seattle going on the road to face the Dolphins.  It’s a West Coast team traveling East for that dreaded early 10:00 AM body clock game.  It’s just a terrible spot for the Seahawks.

The Dolphins are just 1-2 this season, but they had their chances to win in their opener against the Patriots.  And they only lost 28-31 to a very good Buffalo team that is 3-0.  And last Thursday they dominated the Jaguars every way you can in a 31-13 road win as 3-point underdogs.

Now the Dolphins are playing on extra rest and will have more time to prepare for the Seahawks after playing on Thursday last week.  And this is a team that really believes in Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.  He completed 90% of his passes against the Jaguars last week and is still somehow grossly underrated as a starter in this league.

The Seahawks have all kinds of injuries right now.  They are missing several players in the secondary and at linebacker on defense.  Both starting guards got hurt last week on the offensive line, as did their best running back in Chris Carson.  Few teams have been hit harder by injuries early in the season than the Seahawks, and it’s eventually going to catch up to them.  Not even Russell Wilson can save the day.

Plays against favorites (Seattle) who are off a home win, in the first month of the season are 81-43 (65.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.  Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* Oklahoma/Iowa State ABC No-Brainer on Iowa State +7

Oklahoma just lost outright to Kansas State as a 28-point favorites last week.  That was the same Kansas State team that lost as a 15-point favorite over Arkansas State in their opener.  And that was an Arkansas State team that was playing without 10 starters due to Covid-19.

So to say that was a bad loss to Kansas State would be an understatement.  And it’s clear the Sooners have another soft defense this year after giving up 38 points to Kansas State.  Plus they have finally downgraded the QB position going from Mayfield to Murray to Hurts, and now they are left with freshman QB Spencer Rattler, who threw three costly interceptions against Kansas State last week.

Iowa State’s loss to Louisiana in the opener was more forgivable.  The Cyclones gave up two special teams touchdowns and it was a misleading 14-31 final.  They also gave up a meaningless TD in the closing seconds with the game already over.  Louisiana is a Top 25 team and one oft he best non-power 5 teams in the country.

The Cyclones bounced back with a 37-34 win at TCU last week in which they overcame another non-offensive touchdown.  It’s a well-coached team that doesn’t make these kinds of mistakes under Matt Campbell.  So they should be shored up moving forward.

Now the Cyclones want revenge from a 41-42 loss at Oklahoma last year in which they went for the game-winning 2-point conversion at the end and failed.  Few teams have played Oklahoma as tough as Iowa State in recent seasons.  The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their four meetings with the Sooners under Campbell and all four were decided by 10 points or fewer.

After having zero fans in their home opener against Louisiana, the Cyclones will now be playing in front of 15,000 fans this week at home, which will make a difference.  And they are going with their favorite black jerseys for this nice game, jerseys that they are 3-0 in recent seasons when they’ve worn them.  This is a game the Cyclones can win outright, and at the very least, they won’t lose by more than a touchdown.

Campbell is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  Lincoln Riley is 1-8 ATS in road games after a game where they forced no turnovers as Oklahoma’s head coach.  Campbell is 20-8 ATS as a dog as the coach of Iowa State.  FBS teams coming off a home loss as a 23-point favorite or more where they gave up 30 or more points are 1-15-1 ATS int heir last 17 games when favored in their next game against an unranked opponents.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Vanderbilt +21

The Vanderbilt Commodores returned all 11 starters on defense this season and that experience and talent showed in their 12-17 loss to Texas A&M as 31.5-point underdogs in the opener.  Texas A&M is one of the best teams in the country so that effort showed what they are capable of.

Clearly, the Commodores don’t have a great offense but their defense can keep them in games.  Plus Derek Mason liked what he saw from true freshman QB Ken Seals, who completed 20-of-29 passes against Texas A&M.  And the defense only allowed 17 first downs and 372 total yards to a potent Aggies offense.

“Obviously it’s at the high school level, but what you saw on Saturday is what we saw of Ken coming out of high school; extremely accurate on the move as well as in the pocket, and those are the things that have shown up throughout camp,” Commodores coach Derek Mason said on Tuesday.

LSU lost 14 starters to the NFL draft and their leading receiver from last year in Ja’Marr Chase sat out the season, so that makes 15 draft picks really.  And it looks like a clear rebuilding year in Baton Rouge after the Tigers lost 34-44 to Mississippi State as 14.5-point favorites last week.  That’s a Mississippi State team in transition with a first-year head coach in Mike Leach, so it was a really bad loss.

The Tigers gave up an SEC-record 623 passing yards to K.J. Costello in the loss.  It’s clear their defense isn’t anywhere near it has been in years past, and the offense won’t be anywhere near the record-setting offense led by Joe Burrow last year.  New QB Myles Brennan did have 345 passing yards against Mississippi State, but he also threw two interceptions.  The running game produced just 80 yards on 38 carries, of course that counts the minus-45 yards on seven sacks.  Vanderbilt’s defense will make life even worse on Brennan this week.

If LSU wins this game, they’re going to have to win it ugly.  LSU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  This is expected to be a low-scoring game, which favors the underdog Commodores with a total of just 50.5 points.  If they can play with Texas A&M, they can certainly play with this overrated LSU outfit.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Duke +13

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Duke Blue Devils, who are 0-3 SU to start the season.  But they are coming off two misleading losses in which they turned the ball over a combined seven times against Boston College and Virginia, but were only outgained by a total of 141 yards by those two teams.  They showed their potential in their opener, only losing to Notre Dame 13-27 on the road as 21.5-point dogs and getting outgained by 107 yards.

I like the fact that Duke has three games under its belt, so it should be conditioned well and I can’t foresee the Blue Devils continuing to beat themselves.  And I like what I’m hearing from Duke coach David Cutliffe about this team leading up to this game.

“Yes it’s been challenging and it’s going to continue to be challenging,” Cutcliffe told reporters this week. “When you alter anything, you have to increase the quality of everyone you’re doing.  You may not believe this, but I think we’re close.”

This is exactly the type of role I like backing Duke, which is the role of a decent-sized underdog.  And remember last year Duke blitzed Virginia Tech 45-10 as 2.5-point underdogs.  They outgained the Hokies 422 to 259 in that game, so it was no fluke.  And they aren’t nearly two touchdowns worse than the Hokies in 2020.

Virginia Tech is coming off a misleading 45-24 win over NC State as a 6.5-point favorite despite only outgaining a bad Wolfpack team by only 109 yards.  That was the Hokies’ first and only game this season, so they won’t be in as good of playing shape.  They were missing a lot of players and coaches due to Covid-19 and will be without several more again this week.  Their depth will be tested here.

“Each week is different, and there is no guarantee that we’ll have the full complement of people coming into the next week,” coach Justin Fuente said. “It was nice for us to get to do it.  It was nice for us to play well.  Certainly, I don’t want to make too much of it.”

The Hokies are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games as road favorites.  Virginia Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  Duke is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games as a home underdog.  The Blue Devils are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Duke Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Alabama SEC ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M +18.5

I’m willing to give Texas A&M a pass here with their 17-12 win as 31.5-point favorites over Vanderbilt.  They thought they could just show up and win that game, but Vanderbilt has a great defense and gave them a fight.  And it’s clear the Aggies were looking ahead to Alabama.

That ‘bad look’ has Texas A&M way undervalued this week catching 18.5 points against Alabama.  This is still one of the most talented teams in the country.  Jimbo Fisher is in his third year with the program so he has all of his players in place.  And the Aggies returned a whopping 17 starters and 72 lettermen, making them the 10th-most experienced team in the land.  They lost by 19 to Alabama last year, but that game was closer than the final score as the Aggies were only outgained by 59 total yards.  They should improve upon that result.

Alabama only has 12 returning starters and has to break in another new starting QB.  Their 38-19 win over Missouri wasn’t impressive at all as a 28.5-point favorite in the opener.  That’s a really bad Missouri team and they only outgained the Tigers by 92 yards.  And you know with Nick Saban as a head coach they weren’t looking ahead to Texas A&M, either.

Plays against home teams (Alabama) - after leading in their previous game by 17 points or more at the half against an opponent that scored and allowed 17 points or less in their previous game are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Aggies will give the Crimson Tide a run for their money this weekend.  Roll with Texas A&M Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas State -3

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have delivered nine straight winning seasons.  They have done so under seventh-year head coach Blake Anderson, who has stabilized the program. Now the Red Wolves returned 15 starters this year and the best QB situation in the Sun Belt.

Logan Bonner had a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio last year before suffering a season-ending injury after four games.  Layne Hatcher took over and played admirably the rest of the way, finishing with a 27-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  Both guys split reps in their opener against Memphis.

Arkansas State only lost 24-37 to Memphis as an 18-point underdog.  That’s a Memphis team that won a school record 12 games last year and is loaded once again this year.  The Red Wolves even committed three turnovers in that game and failed to recover an onside kick when they were trailing by 4, which turned the tide of the game.  Memphis only outgained them by 86 yards.

I cashed in Arkansas State against Memphis, and I also cashed them in when they won outright 35-31 at Kansas State as 15-point underdogs.  They won that game despite missing 10 starters due to Covid-19.  And they should have won by more because they outgained the Wildcats by 115 yards and had 489 yards of total offense.  

That’s the same Kansas State team that just went into Oklahoma and won 38-35 outright as 28-point underdogs.  So that win looks even better now.  And while Arkansas State has played a brutal schedule thus far with those two road trips, they now take a big step down in class against Coastal Carolina.

Coastal Carolina is getting too much credit for its 2-0 start against an extremely soft schedule.  Their 38-23 win at Kansas was misleading because they were outgained by 49 yards by the Jayhawks.  And they failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites in a 43-21 win over FCS bottom feeder Campbell.

Now Coastal Carolina takes a big step up in class against an Arkansas State team that should have almost everyone back that tested positive for Covid-19.  The Red Wolves are clearly threats to win the Sun Belt with all the talent they have this year, and the Sun Belt has looked really good early in the season.  

The Red Wolves are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS against Coastal Carolina over the last three seasons, outscoring them by a combined 63 points, or an average of 21 points per game.  The Chanticleers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, including 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.  Charlotte is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.  Take Arkansas State Saturday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat +10

This is too big of an adjustment for the injuries to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic.  The Heat go from being 4.5-point dogs in Game 1 to 10-point dogs in Game 2 with the news that Adebayo and Dragic are both doubtful.

The Heat have been one of the deepest teams in the NBA all season.  So they have the depth to overcome these injuries, and more importantly the heart to overcome them.  You know Jimmy Butler will do more, and I expect his supporting cast to follow his lead in this game.

The Heat are a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  They winning SU by an average of 9.0 points per game in this spot.  The Heat are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss dating back further.  Bet the Heat in Game 2 Friday.

15* LA Tech/BYU ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +25

Skip Holtz is doing a tremendous job at Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs have made six straight bowl games under his watch with four 9-plus win seasons and no fewer than seven wins in any of the last six seasons.  They are coming off a 10-3 campaign last season.

The Bulldogs are flying under the radar this season because they only returned eight starters.  But they only returned 11 last year and still won 10 games.  Holtz does wonders with inexperienced teams and does a good job of bringing in transfers while also developing players.  10 starters on offense are juniors or seniors and nine starters on defense are upperclassmen as well.

Louisiana Tech has opened 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season.  They went on the road and upset Southern Miss 31-30 as 7-point underdogs and then handled their business in a 66-38 win over Houston Baptist as 23.5-point favorites.  That’s the same Houston Baptist team that only lost by 2 points at Texas Tech the week prior.

Holtz always has a great quarterback and stud skill position players, and that has been no different in 2020.  Abilene Christian senior transfer Luke Anthony is the next great one here.  He has thrown for 463 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio through two games.  He has found a nice connection with WR Adrian Hardy, who has nine receptions for 148 yards and a score.

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on BYU, which has covered the spread by a combined 78 points in wins over Navy and Troy, two programs that are clearly down this season compared to where they are normally at.  No question those wins were still impressive, but now BYU goes from being a 1.5-point favorite against Navy, a 14-point favorite against Troy to a whopping 25-point favorite against Louisiana Tech.  I think LA Tech would beat both of those teams.

Holtz is 35-18 ATS as a road underdog as a head coach.  The Bulldogs are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 road games.  Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games as road underdogs.  The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as favorites.  BYU is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+115)

The Chicago Cubs will bounce back in blowout fashion today after losing 5-1 to the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of this series.  They have a huge advantage on the mound in this one that’s going to lead to a victory by two runs or more.

Yu Darvish is 8-3 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.961 WHIP in 12 starts this season for the Cubs with 93 K’s and only 14 walks and 5 homers allowed in 76 innings.  Darvish has been nothing short of dominant.

While Sixto Sanchez has one of the sweetest names in baseball, he’s no match for Darvish here.  Sanchez struggled down the stretch in going 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA in his final two starts, allowing 9 earned runs and 18 base runners in 7 innings in losses to the Braves and Nationals.

The Marlins are 34-71 in their last 105 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Cubs are 10-4 in their last 14 playoff games as favorites.  Chicago is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and 16-5 in the last 21 home meetings.  Take the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.

20* Broncos/Jets AFC No-Brainer on New York -1

The injury situations for both the New York Jets and Denver Broncos are a mess.  I just think the injuries are worse for the Broncos, and the short week will favor Sam Darnold and the Jets over third-string QB Brett Rypien and Denver.

The Broncos had a combined 18 Pro Bowls when the 53-man roster was finalized to begin the season.  Now, only Melvin Gordon and his two Pro Bowls are left after Von Miller, Jurell Casey, Courtland Sutton, Phillip Lindsay and A.J. Bouye all went out with injuries.  Rypien will be making his first NFL start in place of the benched Jeff Driskel, who took the place of injured starter Drew Lock.

Certainly there hasn’t been much to like about the Jets this season.  But they have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL against the Bills, 49ers and Colts, who are a combined 7-2 on the season.  This is a big step down in class for them and a game they can certainly win.

Coach Adam Gase likes the way that Darnold is showing some fire and doing everything he can to get this thing turned around.  And Darnold will get back one of his favorite weapons in Jamison Crowder from injury.  Crowder had seven receptions on 13 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown in the opener against Buffalo before missing the past two games with injury.  Bet the Jets Thursday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +5

The Miami Heat have been the most impressive team in the playoffs.  They dismantled the Pacers in four games, the Bucks in five and the Celtics in six.  They just play so well together as a team and don’t have a weakness.

The Los Angeles Lakers pretty much cruised their way to the NBA Finals.  They faced a banged up Blazers team, a Rockets team that couldn’t handle their size, and a Nuggets team that was running on fumes after two seven-game series but still gave them a run for their money.

Bam Adebayo is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  He is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate every season and will match up with Anthony Davis as well as anyone.  And the Heat have defenders to slow down LeBron James as much as possible in Butler, Iguodala and Crowder.  This is actually a great matchup for the Heat, and it should show starting with Game 1.

Miami is 12-3 SU & 12-3 ATS in playoff games this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 1 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Blue Jays +131

The Toronto Blue Jays just couldn’t get on the board until it was too late yesterday as they fell 3-1 to the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of this series.  Look for the Blue Jays to bounce back in Game 2 at a nice underdog price because they definitely have the advantage on the mound.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been Toronto’s best starter this season, going 5-2 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.164 WHIP In 12 starts.  He has been at his best not he road, going 3-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in six starts away from home.  He has posted a 3.72 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in two starts against the Rays this season.

Tyler Glasnow is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.  He is 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA in 11 starts this season, and 2-1 with a 4.85 ERA in five home starts.  Glasnow has never beaten the Blue Jays, going 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in six career starts against them.

Toronto is 15-6 (+11.3 units) after having lost two of their last three games this season.  The Rays are 2-7 in their last nine playoff games as favorites.  Roll with the Blue Jays Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A’s -116

The Chicago White Sox improved to 15-0 against left-handed starters this season and got to Luzardo early and hung on for a 4-1 victory in Game 1.  Now it’s Oakland’s turn for revenge in Game 2.

The A’s are 11-3 against left-handed starters this season and will get their crack at lefty Dallas Kuechel.  Look for them to get to Keuchel early and often in this one.

The White Sox are only 21-25 against right-handed starters this season, and they’ll be up against the superb Chris Bassitt, who is 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Bassitt has been virtually unhittable at home, going 2-1 with a 0.72 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in six home starts.

Kuechel is 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA in his last two starts against the A’s, allowing 8 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings.  Bassitt is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against the White Sox, pitching 13 shutout innings.  Bet the A’s Wednesday.

20* Yankees/Indians Game 1 No-Brainer on New York -101

It’s rare to get the chance to back Gerrit Cole at this kind of price.  We’ll take advantage in Game 1 of this series against the Cleveland Indians.  The Yankees are as healthy as they’ve been all season and will be dangerous in the postseason.

Cole is 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.959 WHIP In 12 starts this season.  He is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.619 WHIP in his last three starts.  Cole is 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in five career starts against Cleveland.

Shane Bieber is getting too much respect from oddsmakers after the two-month regular season he had.  But he was hittable down the stretch, and he has posted an 8.30 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in two career starts against the Yankees.  Bet the Yankees in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Chiefs/Ravens ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore -3.5

The Baltimore Ravens have had this game circled on their calendars all offseason.  And they’ve done a good job of not overlooking their first two opponents to get to it, handling their business in a 38-6 home win over Cleveland as a 7-point favorite and a 33-16 road win at Houston as a 7-point favorite.  It’s clear the Ravens are the best team in the NFL, and they’re going to be out to prove it Monday night in a big way.

The Chiefs barely escaped with a 23-20 win at Los Angeles as 9-point favorites last week against a rookie QB in Justin Herbert, who diced them up.  The Chiefs allowed 479 total yards to a bad Chargers offense in that game, and they have a mess of injuries up and down their defense that is going to hurt them against the Ravens.

These teams have a common opponent to compare to in the Texans.  The Ravens were much more dominant in their 33-16 road win than the score would even indicate.  They outgained the Texans by 103 yards.  The Chiefs only outgained the Texans by 9 yards in their 34-20 home win that was much closer than the score would indicate.  And after that Chargers game, the Chiefs are now getting outgained by 28 yards per game on the season, while the Ravens have outgained their two opponents by an average of 87 yards per game.

Baltimore also wants revenge from a 28-33 loss to the Chiefs last season and a 24-27 (OT) loss in 2018.  The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. AFC opponents.  Baltimore is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  Bet the Ravens Monday.

15* Celtics/Heat ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 214.5

The Heat and Celtics have gone over the total in three straight games now.  That has forced oddsmakers to set this total 7.5 points higher than it was in Game 2, which was set at 207.  Now it’s 214.5 and the highest total of the series.  There’s definitely value with the UNDER because of it.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Sunday.

15* Cowboys/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +5

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off the type of win that could really rally their team this week.  They suffered a tough 17-20 loss to the Rams in Week 1.  Then they found themselves trailing 24-39 to the Falcons with under five minutes remaining in the third quarter last week.

But the Cowboys kept fighting, got it to a 2-point game, and recovered a great onside kick.  They went on to kick the game-winning field goal and beat the Falcons 40-39.  I think they carry that momentum into this week against the Seattle Seahawks, who won’t have a home-field advantage at all like they normally do with the 12th man.

And without that home-field advantage, plus having a defense that is soft as better, the Seahawks cannot be laying 5 points this week to the Cowboys.  I look at these are pretty much even teams, so I’m going to take the 5 points every time.

Indeed, the Seahawks are giving up a whopping 27.5 points and 485 yards per game through two games.  The Falcons diced them up for 508 yards in Week 1, and Cam Newton had his best game in years with 397 passing yards last week.  Dak Prescott is going to dice them up this week as he has some of the best weapons in the NFL, and that was on display against the Falcons last week as the Cowboys racked up 570 total yards in their comeback win.

The Seahawks are also being overvalued due to all of the MVP talk surrounding Russell Wilson.  This is simply the case of the betting public getting mesmerized by the fancy offense the Seahawks have put up so far.  And they’re overlooking their atrocious defense. And Wilson faced two soft defenses in the Falcons and Patriots as well.  It’s also a bit of a letdown spot after beating the Patriots on Sunday Night Football.

Dallas is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after trailing in its previous game by 14 or more points at halftime.  The Cowboys are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games after allowing 35 points or more last game.  Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.  Seattle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games.

Plays against home favorites (Seattle) - with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -120

The Toronto Blue Jays can improve their playoff positioning with a win Sunday.  So they still have something to play for, and they are playing like it by going 6-1 in their last seven games overall.  The Orioles are just ready for their season to be over after going 4-14 in their last 18 games overall.

We’re getting the Blue Jays at a discount today because Tanner Roark has been rocked in his last two starts.  But his last three starts have all come against the New York Yankees, so that’s understandable.  He’ll be much sharper against the lowly Orioles today.

Keegan Aikin has been great at home but terrible on the road this season for the Orioles.  He is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.889 WHIP in three road starts, and now he’s up against this potent Toronto lineup that is on fire right now.

Baltimore is 1-14 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season, getting outscored by 2.7 runs per game.  Take the Blue Jays Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -3

There is a big strength of schedule gap here between the Falcons and Bears thus far.  The Falcons are 0-2, but they’ve lost to the Seahawks and Cowboys.  The Bears are 2-0, but they’ve only beaten the Lions and Giants by a combined 7 points.

The Bears came back from a 23-6 deficit in the 4th quarter against a depleted Lions secondary in Week 1 that went on to get gashed by the Packers last week.  And they only beat the banged-up Giants 17-13 at home, failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites.

The Falcons beat themselves against the Seahawks, gaining 508 total yards and outgaining the Seahawks by 123 yards.  And then they blew a 39-24 4th quarter lead against the Cowboys with under five minutes remaining last week.  It was a fluky loss as Atlanta had a chance to put the game away, but Julio Jones dropped a wide open TD pass he normally would catch.

Matt Ryan and this Falcons offense is hitting on all cylinders.  They have some of the best talent in the NFL at receiver and that has been on display through two weeks.  The Bears still have Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, and it’s just hard to trust him to play at anything other than a below-average level week in and week out because he is arguably the worst starting QB in the NFL.

Chicago is 0-7 ATS after playing a home games over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games with their only win coming with that miracle comeback win at Detroit in Week 1.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +7.5

I faded the Browns with success last week as I stated they shouldn’t be 6-point favorites against almost anyone in the NFL, and the Bengals came through in a 5-point loss.  And now I’m definitely fading the Browns again this week laying a whopping 7.5 points to Washington.

I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Washington after losing 15-30 at Arizona last week.  Arizona just looks like the real deal through two weeks, so it’s not a bad loss.  And people are quick to forget they upset the Eagles 27-17 as 5.5-point dogs in Week 1.  It’s a Washington team that is consistently going to have its lines inflated because the betting public wants nothing to do with them because they aren’t flashy.

But the Redskins are strong where it counts as they have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL.  They sacked Carson Wentz eight times in Week 1 thanks to having five former first-round picks up front.  And they will make life difficult on the overrated Baker Mayfield in this one, while also shutting down Cleveland’s solid rushing tack of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who went off against a soft Bengals defense last week.

The Browns have injuries all over their defense that should lead to the best game of the season thus far for Dwayne Haskins and company.  Pass rushers Vernon and Clayborn are questionable, as are defensive backs Ward and Williams.  And they’re already missing Delpit in the secondary.  We saw Joe Burrow dice up the Browns for 30 points and 285 passing yards last week to keep the Bengals in the game as they just just couldn’t get him off the field.

Ron Rivera is 24-8 ATS off a road loss in all games he has coached.  Rivera is 10-2 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  Cleveland is 24-50-2 ATS in its last 76 games overall.

Plays against home favorites (Cleveland) with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1983.  Take Washington Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Denver +5

The Denver Nuggets have erased two 3-1 deficits already in these playoffs for the first time in NBA playoff history.  And here we are again with the Nuggets in this exact same situation, a spot that they are clearly comfortable with.

And the Nuggets seem to have figured out the Lakers since Game 1.  They have shot 47.3% or better in every game in this series.  They lost at the buzzer in Game 2, won 114-106 in Game 3 and only lost 108-114 in Game 4 after the Lakers got a lot of preferential treatment from the refs down the stretch.  They shot a whopping 35 free throws in that game and that is unlikely to happen again.

Denver is 11-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday.

20* Tennessee/South Carolina SEC No-Brainer on Tennessee -3

The Tennessee Vols started just 2-5 last year.  But they rebounded in a big way to go 6-0 in their final six games including a bowl win over Indiana.  And now the Vols enter their third season under Jeremy Pruitt, who just got a raise and a contract extension.

Pruitt now has mostly all of his players in place and the Vols could be a surprise contender in the SEC East.  They are one of the most experienced teams in the country, ranking 12th on that list due to returning a whopping 17 starters.

South Carolina went 4-8 last season and returns just 13 starters.  Injuries really hurt the Gamecocks last season and they aren’t going to be very good this season.  Will Muschamp has this team headed in the wrong direction, similar to what he did at Florida before he was let go.  He is one of the worst coaches in the SEC.

Plays against any team (South Carolina) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against an opponent that closed out last season with four or more straight wins are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Tennessee is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Muschamp is 3-14 ATS in home games with a total of 42.5 to 49 in all games he has coached.  The Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.  The Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Vols are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to South Carolina.  Take Tennessee Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +101

The Tampa Bay Rays have already clinched the top overall seed in the American League and have nothing to play for.  The Philadelphia Phillies are one game back of the Giants for the final playoff spot in the National League.  We’ll back the more motivated Phillies here at an underdog price.

I also like backing the Phillies with their best starter on the mound in Zack Wheeler.  He is 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 10 starts this season and averaging 6.4 innings per start. He should be able to go deep into this one and have the Phillies avoid their dreaded bullpen for the most part.  Roll with the Phillies Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -4

Bronco Mendenhall enters his fifth season at Virginia.  He led the Cavaliers to the Coastal Division title last year and the Cavaliers went on to play Florida very tough in the Orange Bowl, covering as 14-point dogs in a 28-36 loss.

Now the Cavaliers have 15 starters back and one of the best defenses in the ACC with eight starters and six of their top seven tacklers back.  They have seven starters back on offense, and although they do lose QB Bryce Perkins, he was mistake-prone last year and is replaceable.

Duke has looked terrible in its first two games this season.  The Blue Devils lost 13-27 to Notre Dame before falling 6-26 at home to Boston College last week.  That was a Boston College team with a new head coach playing their first game of the season.  And now they face a veteran Virginia team this week.  I think because it’s Virginia’s first game while Duke has already played two, that is being factored into the line too much.  The Cavaliers will handle it well.

After all, Virginia thumped Duke 48-14 as 3-point home favorites last year.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  The Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Army +13.5

The Army Black Knights clearly came into 2020 underrated off their 5-8 campaign last year.  That followed up back-to-back 10-plus win seasons in 2017 and 2018.  But the Black Knights look like they’re back to being a team that can challenge for double-digit wins again in 2020.

Indeed, Army is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season beating Middle Tennessee 42-0 as 3.5-point favorites and LA Monroe 37-7 as 24-point favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 44.5 points in their first two games.  It’s taking the oddsmakers too long to catch on to how good this team is, and we’re getting value with them again this week as 13.5-point dogs to Cincinnati.

Cincinnati came in among the favorites to win the AAC this season after winning 11 games each of the past two seasons.  You are getting no discounts to back the Bearcats this season.  And they weren’t exactly a team that blew out their opposition on the regular last season.  Indeed, they went 4-1 in games decided by a TD or less to pad their record last year.

The Bearcats failed to cover as 39.5-point favorites in their opener against lowly Austin Peay in a 55-20 win.  Austin Peay moved the ball just fine on this Cincinnati defense, finishing with 353 total yards, which is pretty good for a poor FCS program.

Cincinnati didn’t play a triple-option team last year and won’t be prepared for Army in just a week’s time after beating Austin Peay last week.  Army has two weeks to prepare for Cincinnati after last playing on September 12th.  That’s a huge advantage for the Black Knights, who are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Bearcats.

Jeff Monken is 15-6 ATS in road games after playing a home game as the coach of Army.  The Black Knights are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 September games.  The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Army Saturday.

15* Iowa State/TCU Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -2.5

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Iowa State Cyclones after their fluky 14-31 loss to Louisiana as a 13-point favorite in the opener.  The Cyclones gave up two special teams touchdowns and a TD in the final minute to make the score look way worse than it really was.

I still believe the Cyclones can contend for the Big 12 title with the talent they have on hand.  They just have a way of playing to their competition.  And they probably read the press clippings and thought they were better than they were in Week 1.

You know head coach Matt Campbell will have his team humbled with two weeks of practice to get ready for this game after playing Louisiana on September 12th.  And just having that game under their belt is a big advantage compared to TCU, which still has yet to play a game.

After winning eight games one time in 37 years before Campbell took over, the Cyclones have now had three straight eight-plus win seasons.  They were second in the Big 12 in yards per game differential (+62.6) last year and they returned 13 starters from that team.  They have eight starters back on D and may have the best stop unit in the Big 12.  And offensively they have almost all of their top weapons back led by QB Purdy and RB Hall.

TCU went just 5-7 last season, which included a 24-49 loss at Iowa State.  The Horned Frogs aren’t going to be a whole lot better in 2020 with just 12 starters back.  Starting QB Max Duggan isn’t going to start due to heart problems and it’s unclear how much he’ll play, if he plays at all.

Plays on road teams (Iowa State) - in the first month of a season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final two games, a game between two teams with five or less offensive starters returning are 32-8 (80%) since 1992.  These teams are close to even defensively, but the Cyclones have the huge advantage on offense.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +27

East Carolina went just 4-8 in Mike Houston’s first season on the job.  But they almost upset both Cincinnati and SMU, two teams that won double-digit games last year.  And they played UCF tough, only losing 28-41 as 35-point road underdogs.  

Now ECU is catching 27 points in the rematch, and the Pirates are going to be much better in Houston’s second season on the job.  He welcomes back eight starters on offense including the underrated Holton Ahlers at quarterback.  He has three receivers back that all had 670-plus receiving yards last season.  Ahlers is a dual-threat who rushed for 359 yards and six scores last year.  This offense is going to be good, plus five of the top six tacklers return on defense.

UCF had 10 players opt out of playing for personal reasons this season.  They also have another five players that are out or questionable with an injury.  They aren’t going to be strong enough to put away ECU by four-plus touchdowns, which is what it’s going to take to cover this huge spread.

The Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  UCF is 2-6 ATS in its last eight conference games.  Take East Carolina Saturday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Celtics UNDER 213.5

Oddsmakers have jacked this total up from 208.5 in Game 3 to 212 in Game 4 to 213.5 in Game 5.  There’s now ample value to bet the UNDER in Game 5 tonight and we’ll take advantage.

It’s inflated because Games 3 and 4 went over the totals.  But Game 4 was a dead nuts under until late in the game.  It was 50-44 at halftime and it took a bunch of 3-pointers and fouls in the final minutes to get over the number.  That’s unlikely to happen again.

Elimination games are always more tense, which brings to the table more of a half-court game and poor shooting.  It also amps up the defense for both teams as one is trying to advance to the NBA Finals, while the other is fighting to stay alive.

The UNDER is 12-5 in Celtics last 17 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last seven games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtics last six games following a SU loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-110)

The Houston Astros can clinch a playoff spot with a win Friday.  They got their bats going yesterday and won 12-4 to cash in for us.  And we’re back on them again today against the lowly Texas Rangers, who are 1-7 in their last eight games overall.

Jose Urquidy is the better starter in this matchup.  He is 1-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in four starts this season.  Urquidy owns the Rangers, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.357 WHIP in two career starts against them, allowing just two earned runs and five base runners in 14 innings with 16 K’s.

Texas is 6-20 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season, losing by 2.5 runs per game.  The Rangers are 7-25 after batting .225 or worse over a 5-game span this season.  The Astros are 35-17 in the last 52 meetings.  Take the Astros on the Run Line Friday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Denver +6

The Denver Nuggets are so resilient.  They came up with a big effort in Game 2 as 5.5-point dogs and lost at the buzzer, 103-105.  And they rebounded with a 114-106 victory as 5.5-point dogs in Game 3.  Now they are catching 6 points in Game 4 tonight.

The Nuggets are now 11-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  I’m not about to go against this trend, instead I’ll back it as Denver continues coming up big when behind tonight.  Bet the Nuggets Thursday.

15* Dolphins/Jaguars AFC ANNIHILATOR on Miami +3

The Miami Dolphins will be highly motivated for a victory Thursday after opening 0-2 this season.  But they’ve played a brutal schedule facing both the Patriots and Bills, two of the best teams in the AFC.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Dolphins nearly covered as 7-point dogs against the Patriots but lost 11-21 after Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an INT from inside the 10-yard line in the closing minutes.  They did cover as 5.5-point dogs in a 28-31 loss to Buffalo last week.  And they should not be catching a full 3 points against the Jaguars this week, if catching points at all.

The Jaguars are getting a lot of respect for starting 2-0 ATS.  They got a miracle 27-20 win over the Colts as 7-point dogs despite getting outgained by 204 yards.  And last week’s performance was much better despite losing, falling 30-33 as 7-point dogs at Tennessee.  Then again, I think the Titans are overvalued as well after what they did making a run to the AFC Championship last year.

The Jaguars lost almost all of their best players on defense this offseason, which is why they can’t be trusted in the favorites role.  They give up 26.5 points and 399.5 yards per game thus far.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to find plenty of holes in their D, especially after he led the Dolphins to 28 points against a very good Buffalo D last week.

Plays against home favorites (Jacksonville) - a team with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS since 1983.  Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  Take the Dolphins Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -119

The Houston Astros are trying to clinch a playoff spot at 28-28 on the season.  A win or two more will do it.  It starts tonight against the Texans Rangers.

Christian Javier is 4-2 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.007 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in his last three.  Javier is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.600 WHIP in one career start against Texas, which came back on September 2nd when he allowing just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings.

Lance Lynn is having another good season for Texas.  But Lynn has struggled mightily in recent starts against the Astros, going 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in his last three starts against them.  He has allowed 16 earned runs and 7 homers in 20 innings in those three starts.

Texas is ice cold at the plate and is 5-21 after batting .225 or worse over a 5-game span this season, so it has happened often.  They are hitting just .213 and scoring 3.6 runs per game as a team.  Roll with the Astros Thursday.

20* UAB/South Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on South Alabama +7

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

I cashed on South Alabama +15 in a 32-21 outright win over Southern Miss as 15-point underdogs in their opener.  I also cashed in South Alabama +10 in a 24-27 loss to Tulane in which they blew a big lead two weeks ago.  And now the Jaguars are catching 7 points against UAB and I believe it’s too much as this team doesn’t get the respect they deserve.

I did like QB Desmond Trotter, who played well at the end of last year and to start this year. But Campbell clearly sees something great in Chance Lovertich, who replaced Trotter against Tulane and went 18-of-29 passing for 247 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  So I trust his decision here to start him.

UAB struggled to put away FCS Central Arkansas in a 35-45 win as 21.5-point favorites in their opener.  The Blazers also lost 14-31 at Miami and failed to cover as 15.5-point dogs.  Bill Clark is doing a good job at UAB, but the secret is out on this team, and they’ve gone from being undervalued in recent seasons to overvalued in 2020.  And now they’ve lost starting QB Tyler Johnson III to a shoulder injury.  Redshirt freshman Bryce Lucero will get the start, and he went just 4-of-12 for 55 yards in relief against Miami.

The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  South Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  UAB is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 211

The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics will certainly be prepared for each other heading into Game 4.  After all, they’ve had three days off in between games to practice and prepare.

That’s going to favor the UNDER big-time in Game 4 tonight.  It already favors defense the longer a series goes on, but that will especially be the case in this series with this delay in action.

In Game 3 the refs were whistle-happy and sent both teams to the free throw line 30-plus times.  The Heat were 28-of-34 from the charity stripe, while the Celtics were 26-of-30.  They had shot just 38 combined free throws in Game 2 and that went up to 64 in Game 3.  There won’t be nearly as many fouls called in Game 4 tonight.

The UNDER is 12-4 in Celtics last 16 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last four games following a loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-101)

The Tampa Bay Rays would clinch the AL East with a victory Wednesday.  They take on the New York Mets (25-30), who are all but eliminated from playoff contention because they would need to much help to get in even if they won out.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Tyler Glasnow, who is 4-1 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 10 starts this season with 83 K’s in 51 1/3 innings.  Glasnow has been at his best on the road, going 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in five starts away from home.

Michael Wacha is washed up and terrible.  He is 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.900 WHIP in his last three.  Wacha has never beaten the Rays, going 0-2 with a 9.72 ERA and 2.281 WHIP in two career starts against them.

The Rays are 27-12 against right-handed starters this season.  Tampa Bay is 12-2 in its last 14 games following a loss.  The Rays are 18-6 in their last 24 road games.  The Mets are 6-16 in their last 22 games as underdogs.  New York is 24-53 in its last 77 games as a home underdog.  Roll with the Rays on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +145

The Chicago White Sox will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight, including the first two games of this series to Cleveland, and now their lead in the AL Central has been trimmed to 0.5 games.

The good news for the White Sox is ace Lucas Giolito takes the ball to stop the bleeding.  Giolito is 4-3 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in four road starts.  Giolito is 2-0 with a 0.65 ERA in his last four starts against Cleveland, giving up just 2 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings with 32 K’s.

Shane Bieber has proven to be hittable in his last two outings, allowing 3 earned runs apiece to both the Twins and Tigers.  The White Sox have gotten to him for 3 runs each in their last two games against him.

Giolito is 14-4 (+13 Units) against the money line in all road games over the lsat two seasons.  It’s bounce back time for Chicago and Giolito tonight.  Take the White Sox Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Denver +6.5

The Denver Nuggets have been the comeback kids in these playoffs, and being down 0-2 won’t phase them at all.  They overcame two 3-1 deficits to win the first two series for the first time in NBA history.

The Nuggets really showed they could play with the Lakers in Game 2 in their 103-105 loss at the buzzer.  They have also proven they are a matchup problem for the Lakers as they shot 49.4% in Game 1 and 47.3% in Game 2.  

They are getting to the rim, but they haven’t shot the 3-pointer to their potential yet, making fewer than 10 in each of their first two games.  They made 9 in Game 1 and just 8 in Game 2. Look for them to get double-digit 3-pointers in Game 3 tonight.

Denver is 10-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -130

The Tampa Bay Rays handed the New York Mets pretty much the dagger blow yesterday.  The Mets lost with ace Jacob DeGrom on the mound to fall to 24-30 on the season.  They just have no shot of making the playoffs now.

The Rays are trying to clinch the AL East this week and can inch closer with another win Tuesday as they lead the Yankees by 4.5 games.  They send Blake Snell to the mound, who is 4-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  Snell fired 7 1/3 shutout innings in a 3-0 victory in his lone career start against the Mets.

Seth Lugo is 1-1 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in five starts this season for the Mets.  He is coming off his worst start of the season, giving up six earned runs and four homers in 1 2/3 innings against the Phillies last time out.

The Rays are 18-5 in their last 23 road games.  Tampa Bay is 30-11 in its last 41 games overall.  The Mets are 23-53 in their last 76 games as home underdogs.  The Rays are 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Take the Rays Tuesday.

20* Saints/Raiders ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Oakland +5.5

The Los Vegas Raiders are primed to take another step forward under John Gruden.  He added a ton of speed on offense at the skill positions, and he shored up the defense in the offseason through free agency.  The Raiders are definitely a team to watch out for in 2020.

They opened their season with a 34-30 win at Carolina as 3-point favorites.  The offense played well in gaining 372 total yards, and the defense played well for three quarters as the Raiders had a 27-15 lead heading into the fourth.  I don’t think their task will be much tougher against the Saints at all this week defensively.

New Orleans is coming off a misleading 34-23 win over Tampa Bay last week.  The Saints only gained 271 total yards in that game, but they won the turnover battle 3-0, which was the difference.  Now the Saints’ offense takes a huge hit as they’ll be without the most productive receiver in the NFL in Michael Thomas for at least a few weeks with an ankle injury.  He is Drew Brees’ security blanket, and without him this offense is average at best.

Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are 77-37 (67.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Raiders will be pumped to break in the all-new Allegiant Stadium tonight.  They should not be catching 5.5 points against the Saints tonight in a game they can win outright.  Bet the Raiders Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds -124

The Cincinnati Reds have gone 7-1 in their last eight games overall to get back to .500 on the season and put themselves in great position to make the postseason.  Look for them to continue their momentum tonight with a win over the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of this series.

The Reds have the advantage on the mound behind Luis Castillo.  He has posted a 3.19 ERA in 10 starts this season, and he’s 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in four home starts.  Castillo has been dominant in his last three outings, going 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.818 WHIP.

Brandon Woodruff is 1-2 with a 3.60 ERA in five road starts this season.  And while Woodruff has posted a 4.97 ERA in five career starts against the Reds, Castillo has a 3.70 ERA in 10 career starts against the Brewers.

The Brewers are 1-7 in their last eight road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Reds are 7-1 in their last eight games as a favorite.  Take the Reds Monday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Denver +7.5

The Denver Nuggets were clearly tired coming off two seven-game series in Game 1.  They did not play well, and the Lakers blitzed them for a 126-114 win.  Look for the Nuggets to bounce back in Game 2 and make a game of this.

The Nuggets are used to being down and probably are more comfortable in this role now after overcoming two 3-1 deficits.  They will have the belief, and they did find plenty of holes in the Lakers’ defense in Game 1 as they shot 49.4% front the field.  

But they only made 9 3-pointers, which was one of their lowest totals of the playoffs.  And they turned the ball over 16 times, which was likely due to fatigue.  Look for them to be much sharper in Game 2 tonight.

Denver is 9-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  The Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  Take the Nuggets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington +7

I cashed in Washington against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1.  It didn’t look good early as they were down 17-0.  But they dug in and completely shut down the Eagles the rest of the way, eventually winning 27-17.  They forced four 3 and outs, stopped the Eagles twice on downs, and forced three turnovers after being down 17-0.

I mentioned in my analysis on that pick that Washington had the best defensive line in the NFL, and teams can win with a good defensive line.  They drafted the best player in the draft in Chase Young, who had a sack and basically forced two fumbles.  Young joins four other first-round picks on this dominant Washington defensive line.  

They sacked Carson Wentz a whopping eight times in that game.  They held the Eagles to just 265 total yards.  And they have what it takes up front to get after Kyler Murray this week and slow him down.

The Cardinals are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers off their upset win over the 49ers.  That was a 49ers team that only had three healthy receivers and were down to a third-string center.  Now the Cardinals go from being 7-point dogs to the 49ers to 7-point favorites over the Redskins.  That’s a 14-point swing, and for comparison’s sake, the 49ers aren’t 14 points better than the Redskins.

Washington head coach Ron Rivera will see that DeAndre Hopkins had 14 catches against the 49ers and game plan around stopping him.  Murray had 14 completions to Hopkins and only 12 other completions.  So it’s pretty clear they are making a point of getting the ball to Hopkins, so expect plenty of double-teams on him.

Washington is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons.  Rivera is 17-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached.  So he is good at getting his team to keep playing with momentum off a big win.  Washington will give Arizona a run for its money.  Roll with Washington Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have now won five straight games by two runs or more.  They have gone 3-0 against the Rockies in this series with wins by 9, 6 and 5 runs.  It will be more of the same Sunday due to their advantage on the mound.

Tony Gonsolin has been virtually unhittable this season for the Dodgers.  He is 1-0 with a 0.88 ERA and 0.685 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing just three earned runs and 21 base runners in 30 2/3 innings.  He gave up just one earned run in six innings in his lone start against the Rockies in 2020.

Antonio Senzatela is having a decent season for the Rockies.  But he’s coming off a complete game against Oakland, and that will have taken a lot out of him.  Senzatella does not enjoy facing the Dodgers, going 2-3 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.702 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  He is 0-3 with an 8.66 ERA in his last three starts against the Dodgers, giving up 17 earned runs and seven homers in 17 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers are outscoring their opponents by 2.3 runs per game on the season.  They are 38-15 this season with 33 wins by two runs or more.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +5.5

The Chicago Bears had one of the luckiest wins you will ever see against the Detroit Lions last week.  They trailed 23-6 in the 4th quarter and had about a 2% chance to win.  They went on to score three straight touchdowns to take the 27-23 lead, only to let the Lions drive down for the potential game-winning touchdown.  But DeAndre Swift dropped a would-be TD in the end zone and the Bears won.

The Lions had a couple players go down to injury in the secondary, and Mitchell Trubisky went from looking like the worst quarterback in the NFL for three quarters, to Joe Montana in the fourth quarter.  I believe Trubisky is the former and not the latter, and that will prove to be the case as the season goes on.

While the Bears played a pretty easy opponent in Week 1, the Giants got stuck playing the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They lost 16-26 to a Steelers team that just got Big Ben back healthy this season.  But what made that game so difficult was the Steelers defense, which is easily a Top 5 unit and potential the best defense in the NFL.

This is a much easier test for Daniel Jones and the offense as well as this Giants defense.  There’s no way the Bears should be favored by 5.5 points against almost any team in the NFL this season.  So we are going to grab these points this week.  

And it’s worth noting three key defensive players are questionable for the Bears this week in LB Khalil Mack, LB Robert Quinn and DT Akeem Hicks.  The Giants should get back WR Golden Tate from a hamstring injury this week to give Jones another weapon outside.  He has plenty of them now with Tate, Shepard, Engram and Barkley to produce a quality offense.

The Giants are a perfect 9-0 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last three seasons.  New York is 10-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three years.  Chicago is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a close win by 7 points or less over a division opponent.  The Bears are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. NFC East opponents.  The Giants are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  New York is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games overall.  Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  New York is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Chicago.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Philadelphia Eagles ML -105

This line is a complete overreaction to what happened Week 1.  The Eagles opened as 3.5-point favorites and the money has poured in on the Rams early in the week, going to Rams -1 as of this writing.  That’s a 4.5-point adjustment, and an overreaction to Week 1 results.

The Eagles were upset 17-27 by the Redskins as roughly 6-point favorites in Week 1.  They blew a 17-0 lead against a Washington team that I am higher on than most.  I had Washington in that game and they delivered for me with the comeback.  Their best defensive line in the league sacked Carson Wentz eight times.  The task gets much easier for Wentz this week against the Rams.

Meanwhile, the Rams upset the Cowboys 20-17 last week as 3-point dogs to open, but eventually that line was bet down to close to a pick ‘em.  I also cashed in the Rams in that game and felt kind of fortunate that there was an offensive pass interference call that changed the game.  The Cowboys were a mess defensively with injuries, and the Rams still only managed 20 points on them.

Things get much tougher for Jared Goff and company this week.  The Eagles have a Top 10 defense and they’ll be able to slow down Goff and company.  Plus they’ll be playing with a chip on their shoulder, while the Rams will be feeling pretty good about themselves after upsetting the Cowboys.

Teams that were 5.5-point favorites or more in Week 1 that lost outright come back to go 26-11 ATS in their last 37 tries in Week 2.  This trend makes sense why it works because it’s betting on teams that were supposed to be good coming into the season, they laid an egg in Week 1, and they’re likely to bounce back in Week 2.  That’s the case for the Eagles Sunday.

The Eagles are getting a lot of good news on the injury front.  They had several offensive linemen go down to injuries against the Redskins.  But G Jason Peters and T Lane Johnson are both listed as probable as of Thursday, and those are two of their best linemen.  RB Miles Sanders is also probable after sitting out last week, and DE Derek Barnett is probable as well after sitting out last week.

The Rams are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Eagles.  Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Los Angeles.  Dating back further, Philadelphia is 10-3 SU & 11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 meetings with the Rams.  Take the Eagles Sunday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 207.5

As we’ve seen all playoffs, as a series goes on points are harder to come by.  Teams become familiar with one another and it favors defense.  The game slows down to a half court affair almost every time.

The Celtics and Heat combined for 207 points in Game 2, which would be low enough to cash this UNDER.  And it’s worth noting both teams shot well, especially the Celtics, who shot 50% from the field and that’s unlikely to happen again.  The Heat shot 44.4% as a team.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER 9-2 in Celtics last 11 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Miami/Louisville ABC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -2.5

The Louisville Cardinals were one of the most improved teams in the country last year.  They went from 2-10 in 2018 to 8-5 in 2019 under first-year head coach Scott Satterfield.  He proved his worth at Appalachian State before this and now he’s doing the same at Louisville.

Satterfield welcomes back 16 returning starters this year as this is one of the most experienced teams in the ACC and they’ll be a surprise contender in the Atlantic.  The offense is loaded with eight starters back from a unit that put up 33.1 points and 447 yards per game last year.

The key here offensively is that the Cardinals bring back all of their top skill players from last year, so the chemistry will be good early.  QB Micale Cunningham completed 62.6% of his passes for 2,065 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio last year while also rushing for 482 yards and six scores.  He has each for his top two receivers back in Tutu Atwell (70 receptions, 1,276 yards, 12 TD) and Dez Fitzpatrick (35, 635, 6 TD).  Leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 yards, 9 TD, 5.8 YPC) is back as well.

The Cardinals should see even bigger improvement defensively this year.  They gave up 33.4 points and 440 yards per game last year after giving up 44.1 points and 484 yards per game in their disastrous 2018 campaign.  The Cardinals welcome back eight starters on defense, including seven of the top eight tacklers.  In fact, the Cardinals are expected to start eight starters and three juniors on defense, so this is a veteran unit now.

I cashed in Louisville -11.5 over Western Kentucky last week and I’m back on them again this week.  It was a much bigger blowout than the 35-21 final score would indicate.  The Cardinals jumped out to a 28-7 halftime lead and only scored seven more points after intermission.  They outgained Western Kentucky 487 to 248, or by 239 total yards, so they obviously should have won by more.

I think the fact that Louisville barely covered last week is why were are getting them at such great value this week.  They are only 2.5-point favorites over Miami at home.  And you know the Cardinals haven’t forgotten their 27-52 loss at Miami last year in one of the most misleading finals of the season.

They are going to want some revenge after Louisville outgained Miami 496 to 449 in that contest, but found a way to lose by 25 points due to losing the turnover battle 3-0.  Look for a role reversal this season.  The Cardinals will win the box score and the scoreboard this time around because they are night and day better than they were last year.

The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Louisville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite.  The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Louisville Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -135

The Philadelphia Phillies are a tired team playing their 13th game in 10 days.  They pulled off the sweep in the 7-inning double-header yesterday over Toronto, and now the Blue Jays want some revenge Sunday.

They should get that revenge thanks to the huge advantage they have on the mound.  Hyun-Jin Ryu is 4-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in five road starts.  Ryu is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three career starts against Philadelphia as well.

Vincent Velasquez is 0-1 with a 6.53 ERA and 1.597 WHIP in five starts this season for the Phillies.  He has posted a 5.40 ERA in two career starts against Toronto.  And now that this is back to a 9-inning game, the Blue Jays will get a longer look at Philadelphia’s league-worst bullpen (7.29 ERA).

Velasquez is 4-17 (-12.4 units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last three seasons.  Toronto is 8-1 (+9.4 units) vs. a starting pitcher who is winless after five or more starts over the last two seasons.  The Blue Jays are 45-21 in their last 66 interleague games as a favorite.  Take the Blue Jays Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +23.5

Tulsa was way better than its 4-8 record would indicate last year.  The Golden Hurricane faced a brutal schedule that featured nine bowl teams.  And despite their 2-6 record in the tough AAC, they actually outgained their opponents by 45 yards per game.

Tulsa beat UCF outright as 17-point underdogs.  They lost to Memphis by 1 as 10-point dogs and missed a 29-yard field goal with no time left on the clock that would have won the game.  Memphis and UCF were two of the better teams in the country last year.  And Tulsa only lost one game by more than 21 points last season.

The Golden Hurricane played Oklahoma State last year and actually took a 21-20 lead into halftime over the Cowboys.  They did get shut out 20-0 after intermission, but still only lost by 19.  Now they are catching 23.5 points in the rematch this year, and I think it’s too much.

Tulsa brings back nine starters on offense.  That includes stud QB Zach Smith and his top two receivers, who combined for 1,817 yards last year.  They also bring back 1,000-yard rusher Shamari Brooks.  Four of their five starters are back along the offensive line.

I think Oklahoma State is getting too much hype this season with 17 starters back.  I just don’t believe in QB Spencer Sanders, who is too turnover-prone and had just a 16-to-11 TD/INT ratio last year.  Ten of their starters are back on defense from a unit that gave up 412 yards per game last year.

Tulsa is going to be able to score with Oklahoma State, so it will never be out of this game. And we’ve seen how poor the Big 12 has looked early in the season.  Iowa State, Kansas State and Kansas all got upset by Sun Belt teams last week.  And Texas Tech nearly lost to Houston Baptist as a 40-point favorite.

Oklahoma State will be good this year, I just don’t think they are 24-plus points better than Tulsa, which is what they’d need to be to cover this spread.  That’s a Tulsa team they trailed at halftime last year.

Plays against any team (Oklahoma State) - an excellent offense from last year that average 6.1 or more yards per play, with four-plus more starters returning than their opponent, in the first two weeks of the season are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Philip Montgomery is 20-10 ATS in all road games as the coach Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricanee are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State +16

Louisiana-Lafeyette is in a massive letdown spot already early in the season.  The Rajin’ Cajuns just went not he road and beat Iowa State 31-14 as 13-point underdogs last week in one of the most misleading final scores of the early season.

Indeed, Louisiana was actually outgained by 31 yards by Iowa State.  The Cyclones held the Rajin’ Cajuns to just 272 total yards.  But the difference in the game was on special teams as Louisiana returned two kicks for touchdowns.  They also won the turnover battle 2-0 in that game.

Now Louisiana comes back as more than two-touchdown favorites on the road against Georgia State this week.  There’s no chance the Rajin’ Cajuns will be as amped up for this game as they were for Iowa State.  And I fully expect them to find themselves in more of a dog fight than they bargained for.

A big reason the Rajin’ Cajuns struggled to move the ball against Iowa State is because they are lacking weapons at receiver.  They are without their top three receivers from last year.  J’Marcus Bradley and Jarrod Jackson graduated, and Jamal Bell is out with injury.  I don’t expect Louisiana to have nearly as explosive of an offense this year as they did last year, which is going to make it difficult for them to cover these bigger spreads in the Sun Belt.

Georgia State is a team on the rise in the Sun Belt.  The Panthers went 7-6 last year and made their third bowl game in five seasons.  Shawn Elliott is doing a heck of a job with the program as he enters his fourth season with his best team yet.  I say that because Georgia State returns its most starters (16) of his tenure and he has all of his players in place now.

The offense welcomes back eight starters.  They have four starters back on the offensive line and each of their top three receivers return.  They do have to replace their QB and RB, but I like junior RB Destin Coates, who averaged 6.7 yards per carry last year with 546 yards and seven touchdowns and was their most explosive back.  The defense has eight starters and 10 of the top 12 tacklers back, so this should be Elliott’s best stop unit yet.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -7

The Los Angeles Lakers are rested and ready to go in the Western Conference Finals.  They made easy work of the Houston Rockets in five games, getting better as the series went on.  After losing Game 1, they went on to win four straight all by 8 points or more.

The Denver Nuggets just became the first team in NBA history to erase two 3-1 deficits in the same postseason and come back to win the series.  They have put a lot of mileage on their tires, and it’s only human nature for them to come out flat in Game 1 tonight.

We saw that last series when they were completely flat in Game 1 against the Clippers.  They lost that game 97-120, and we should see a similar result here.  The Lakers have won three of their four meetings with the Nuggets this season.

Denver is 4-12 ATS after successfully covering the spreading two or more consecutive games this season.  The Nuggets are 8-20 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  Bet the Lakers Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-129)

The Cleveland Indians righted the ship and put an end to their eight-game losing streak with a 10-3 win over the Detroit Tigers in Game 1 yesterday.  Rinse and repeat today as they win Game 2 by two runs or more against a Tigers team that is just 4-12 in their last 16 games overall with nine of those losses by two runs or more.

The Indians have a big advantage on the mound today with Zach Plesac, who is 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.780 WHIP in six starts this season.  Plesac has owned the Tigers, going 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in two career starts against them.

Michael Fulmer is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 0-2 with a 9.27 ERA and 2.149 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Fulmer is also 2-4 with a 7.46 ERA and 1.805 WHIP in 10 career starts against Cleveland.

The Indians are 43-9 in their last 52 meetings with the Tigers.  Cleveland is 54-22 in its last 76 vs. a team with a losing record.  Detroit is 24-66 in its last 90 home games.  The Tigers are 11-43 in their last 54 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Detroit is 1-15 in home games off two straight games where they stranded five or fewer runners on base over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 5.6 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Friday.

20* Bengals/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on Cincinnati +6

The Cincinnati Bengals looked pretty good Week 1 all things considered.  They were breaking in a new quarterback in Joe Burrow, who won us a lot of money when he was at LSU and who I have a lot of confidence will continue his success in the NFL.  And he did everything he could to win them the game in Week 1.

Indeed, Burrow drove the Bengals down for what would have been the game-winning score to AJ Green, but Green was called for offensive pass interference.  The Bengals then had to settle for a field goal attempt, which Randy Bullock somehow missed.  He either really injured his calf or faked it because he missed it so badly.

The Bengals lost the turnover battle 2-0 in that game but still had a chance to win.  And their defense held the Chargers to just 16 points and 16-of-30 passing for 207 yards in the loss.  I like the weapons on this team for Burrow with Green, Mixon, Boyd and company.  The Bengals’ stock is going to rise rapidly this year.

The Browns couldn’t have looked worse in Week 1, and I don’t know how they can come back as 6-point favorites after their performance.  They lost 6-38 to the Ravens as 7-point underdogs.  Baker Mayfield continues to show he has been a bust as he went 21-of-39 for 180 yards with a touchdown and an interception.  He averaged just 4.8 yards per attempt  in the loss.

More concerning for the Browns was all their injuries.  They lost three of four starters in the secondary for that game in rookie Grant Delpit, CB Greedy Williams and CB Kevin Johnson.  All three will be out once again on a short week this week.  Not to mention, they lost starting LB Jacob Phillips and OT Jedrick Willis in that Ravens game.  Phillips is out, while Willis is questionable.  They are a mess right now in the injury department to say the least.

A very bad Cincinnati team last year played Cleveland tough in both meetings.  They lost 19-27 in the first matchup despite outgaining the Browns 451 to 333 and and holding a 27 to 17 edge in first downs.  They got their revenge in Week 17 with a 33-23 win and also outgained the Browns 361 to 313.  Now Cincinnati actually has a quarterback instead of a third-stringer, plus one of the top WR’s in the league in Green is back from injury.

The Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  Cincinnati is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 September games.  The Browns are 24-49-2 ATS in their last 75 games overall.  Cleveland is 16-38-1 ATS in its last 55 games following a loss.  The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the Bengals Thursday.

15* Heat/Celtics ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 209.5

The Heat and Celtics combined for 212 points at the end of regulation in Game 1.  And it took a big 58-point 4th quarter to get there.  Look for them to combine for fewer than 209.5 points at the end of regulation in Game 2, so we’ll take the UNDER and hope to avoid overtime.

Both teams shot the ball pretty well in Game 1.  The Heat shot 47.1% from the field and were 16-of-36 (44.4%) from 3-point range.  That’s not going to happen again.  The Celtics shot 44.3% from the field and 15-of-42 (35.7%) from 3-point range.  Those numbers are close to their season averages.  They also shot 21-of-23 (91.3%) from the charity stripe.

As we’ve seen in the playoffs, as a series goes on, points are harder to come by because teams become more familiar with one another and it favors defense.  The books set a 208-point total in Game 1, and now they’ve actually raised it to 209.5, so I think there’s value with the UNDER.

Boston is 13-5 UNDER when revenging a loss as a favorite this season.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Heat last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last five games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers/Astros OVER 9

Oddsmakers have set this total too low following a 1-0 victory by the Ranges over the Astros yesterday.  In fact, the first two games of this series have been low scoring, so I think they’ve shaded this total lower than it should be.

Jordan Lyles is awful.  He is 1-4 with a 9.11 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in six starts for the Rangers this season, including 0-3 with a 10.05 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in three road starts.  The Astros could definitely cover this OVER on their own.

Framber Valdez got off to a good start for the Astros, but he’s 0-1 with a 7.58 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has allowed 13 earned runs and 3 homers in 12 innings in his last two starts.  Valdez is also 0-1 with an 8.21 ERA and 1.956 WHIP in two career starts against Texas.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Rangers last seven road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 27-13-3 in Rangers last 43 games as an underdog.  Houston is 17-6 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-110)

The Cincinnati Reds have now won four straight games all by two runs or more.  They make it five in a row when they host the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 0-7 in their last seven games overall with six of those losses by two runs or more.

The Reds have a huge advantage on the mound today with Luis Castillo.  He got off to a shaky start this year, but he has really turned a corner in his last two starts.  Castillo is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last two starts, allowing just three earned runs in 15 innings.  

Castillo is also 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in his last four starts against the Pirates, allowing just six earned runs in 25 innings.  He’ll be opposed by J.T. Brubaker, who is 1-1 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.579 WHIP in six starts this season for the Pirates.

Pittsburgh is 6-24 in night games this season.  The Pirates are 2-16 on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season, losing by 3.1 runs per game.  Bet the Reds on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays +144

The Toronto Blue Jays (26-20) have played themselves into playoff contention.  They have gone 19-9 in their last 28 games overall and are near full strength in the health department as they just got back SS Bo Bichette from injury.

The same cannot be said for the New York Yankees (26-21), who have struggled without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton among others.  The Yankees are 10-15 in their last 25 games overall with three of those wins coming against the Mets and five against the Orioles.

I would argue the Blue Jays have the advantage on the mound and at the plate today, so they should not be this big of underdogs.  Taijuan Walker is 3-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.15 ERA in his last three.  Take the Blue Jays Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies +118

The Philadelphia Phillies have lost three straight to fall back to .500 on the season.  As a result, we are getting them at a great value here Tuesday as home underdogs to the New York Mets (21-26).

Both Jake Arrieta and Rick Porcello have struggled this year, but Arrieta is the better starter.  Porcello is 1-4 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He is 3-3 with a 4.40 ERA in eight career starts against Philadelphia.

Arrieta is 3-4 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in eight starts this season.  But he does enjoy facing the Mets, posting a 3.36 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 16 career starts against them.  He gave up just two earned runs in seven innings in his lone start against the Mets in 2020 on September 4th, resulting in a 5-3 win over Porcello and the Mets as +125 dogs.

The Mets are 0-8 off three straight games against AL teams this season.  The Phillies are 8-1 in their last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Philadelphia is 10-2 in its last 12 home games overall.  Roll with the Phillies Tuesday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami ML +108

The Miami Heat are now 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the playoffs.  They swept the Pacers and beat the Bucks in five games.  They are the real deal, yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers here as underdogs to the Boston Celtics in Game 1.

This despite the fact that the Heat are the fresher team having a week off to get ready for this game.  And all that extra preparation they got leading up to this series, they will be ready for Game 1 tonight with a great game plan from Erik Spoelstra.

The Celtics should still be fresh with three days off in between games, but they did just have to go seven games with the Toronto Raptors.  And it’s worth noting the Heat upset the Celtics 112-106 as 4-point underdogs in their lone meeting in the bubble.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

20* Titans/Broncos ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3

The Denver Broncos closed strong last season in Vic Fangio’s first year on the job.  They went 4-1 in their final five games last year with their only loss coming to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on the road in the snow.

The Broncos found their QB of the future down the stretch, too.  Drew Lock came in and played very well to close out the season.  He completed 100-of-156 (64.1%) passes for 1,020 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Broncos have now surrounded him with weapons by drafting Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler in the first two rounds of the draft.  They already have Courtland Sutton and Noah Fantasias, previous high picks who were the top two receivers last year.  And they added in Melvin Gordon, who is just one of three RB’s with 40-catch seasons in each of the past four years.  He’ll combined with two-time 1,000-yard rusher Philip Lindsay in the backfield.

While the Broncos will have a much more potent offense than they did a year ago, the defense is also going to be a strength.  Too much had been made of the Von Miller injury, and I think the Broncos are undervalued in Week 1 because of it.  They still have a loaded defense that ranked 10th in the NFL in scoring last year, giving up just 19.8 points per game.

The Broncos added in former Titan Jurrell Casey at defensive tackle, and he’s one of the best players in the game.  He is also going to be motivated to face his former team, and he’ll be able to offer plenty of insight to Denver coaches about what the Titans like to run on both sides of the ball.  That’s a huge advantage.  They do lose CB Chris Harris, but new CB A.J. Bouye comes over from the Jaguars and may actually be a better fit for Fangio’s zone-based scheme.

The Titans are getting too much hype to start 2020 after the incredible run they made to close last year.  They went 9-4 with Ryan Tannehill as a starter, and they made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game after upsetting both the Patriots and Ravens on the road.  They held a double-digit lead on the Chiefs before falling 24-35.

The Titans won me a lot of money during that stretch, but that’s because they were undervalued and consistently underdogs.  But now they open up as 3-point road favorites in Week 1.  As I mentioned, the Titans lost Casey, their best defensive player.  They also lost T Jack Conklin and CB Logan Ryan, two of their best players as well who started all 16 games for them last year.  

Two of their biggest signings were pass rushers Vic Beasley and Jadeveon Clowney.  Beasley wore out his welcome in Atlanta and wasn’t productive at all, and Clowney just can’t seem to stay on the field as he is always injured.  Beasley didn’t pass his physical until September 5th after spending training camp on the non-football injury list.  Clowney didn’t sign his contract until September 7th.  Playing int he altitude of Denver will limit the number of reps both get.

Derrick Henry has had two of his worst games against the Broncos.  Henry ran 12 times for 42 yards as a rookie in 2016, and he was held to 28 yards on 15 carries in a 16-0 loss to the Broncos last year.  You know Fangio is going to make stopping Henry the focal point, and now with Casey as a run-stuffer, the Broncos have the players up front to do it again.

Denver is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Tennessee.  Both of the Titans' wins came by exactly 3 points.  Denver’s five wins came by an average of 16.0 points per game.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-110)

The Atlanta Braves have now scored four or more runs in 13 of their last 15 games overall.  They have cashed for us the past couple days, including yesterday as a +155 underdog as they put up eight runs on Max Scherzer and company.

I’m back on the Braves today on the Run Line due to their offense, not due to Touki Toussaint getting he ball for them.  He has a 6.11 ERA in four starts this season, but Baltimore starter Jorge Lopez has a 5.02 ERA in his three starts.

The key here is that Toussaint will get run support, while the Orioles probably won’t be able to muster much offense.  That has been the case recently as the Orioles are 0-5 in their last five games overall.  They scored a total of three runs in their 4-game sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees over the weekend.

The Braves are 11-1 as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.8 runs per game.  Take the Braves on the Run Line Monday.

15* Cowboys/Rams NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5

You’re just not hearing a lot of talk about the Los Angeles Rams this year.  They are kind of the forgotten team.  They just went to the Super Bowl two years ago, and followed it up with a disappointing 9-7 year last year.

But the Rams did manage to go 11-5 ATS last year, which is impressive for a team coming off a Super Bowl appearance.  They were 7th in total offense and 13th in total defense, so they were still a pretty good team.

Los Angeles’ offense is loaded once again this year.  Jared Goff led the 4th-ranked passing attack last year.  And I love the continuity this offense has coming off a crazy offseason with no preseason games.

The Cowboys’ situation is much worse.  They brought in Mike McCarthy to install a new system.  And while the Cowboys are loaded with talent on offense, it’s going to take a few weeks to be hitting on all cylinders on that side of the ball.  I expect the Rams to be efficient in Week 1.

The Cowboys are going to have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They failed to address needs on this side of the ball.  They lost their most productive defender in Robert Quinn, who has 11.5 sacks last year.  They lost their best CB in Byron Jones to the Dolphins.  

Dallas signed DT Gerald McCoy, but he was lost for the season three weeks ago with a torn ACL.  They are actually hoping for Aldon Smith and Randy Gregory to return from indefinite suspensions due to off-the-field issues.  Jaylon Smith is their only reliable linebacker, and their secondary really takes a hit with the loss of Jones.  The Rams are just in a better position here in Week 1 and should not be the underdogs in this matchup.  Roll with the Rams Sunday.

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +7.5

The Miami Dolphins did a great job to get to 5-11 SU & 9-7 ATS last year.  They really came on strong in the second half.  Head coach Brian Flores has the pulse of his team, and they fought hard to the wire last year.

That included a 27-24 upset win over the Patriots as 15.5-point dogs in Week 17 when the Patriots were playing for home-field advantage.  And I like the continuity on this team now that Flores has named Ryan Fitzpatrick the starter, which was the right move.

The Dolphins bring back all 11 starters on defense and add in CB Byron Jones, DE Shaq Lawson and LB Kyle Van Noy.  Offensively they bring in RB Jordan Howard from Philadelphia and RB Matt Breida from San Francisco.  The chemistry between Fitzpatrick and his young receivers should be even better this year.

No doubt Cam Newton will be playing with a chip on his shoulder this year, but things aren’t going to go smoothly in Week 1 as he adjusts to the new offense.  And the Patriots had several players opt out in the offseason in Dont’a Hightower, Patrick Chung, Marcus Cannon, Brandon Bolden and Matt LaCosse.  They cannot be more than 7-point favorites in the opener against Miami.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.