|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-11-14||Texas A&M +12 v. Tennessee||57-56||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +12
The Texas A&M Aggies certainly aren't ecstatic about their 10-4 start this season. However, they were able to right the ship in their conference opener with their best performance of the season in a 69-53 victory over Arkansas.
Now, I believe the Aggies are showing their best value of the season as a double-digit dog at Tennessee. They will want revenge from the multiple-overtime thriller they played against the Vols last season, losing by a final of 85-93.
The Vols are way overvalued right now due to a four-game winning streak coming in. They are coming off a 68-50 blowout win at LSU on National TV on Tuesday, and that result is the biggest reason why this line has been inflated. The Tigers simply played awful in that loss.
Plays against a home team (TENNESSEE) - after allowing 50 points or less against opponent after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more are 59-29 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Texas A&M Saturday.
|01-11-14||New Orleans Saints +8 v. Seattle Seahawks||Top||15-23||Push||0||51 h 19 m||Show|
20* Saints/Seahawks NFC Saturday No-Brainer on New Orleans +8
The New Orleans Saints finally gotten over the hump while winning an important road game last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. That game wasn
|01-11-14||Alabama -2 v. Georgia||Top||58-66||Loss||-112||8 h 59 m||Show|
20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama -2
The Alabama Crimson Tide are the best 7-loss team in the country. Their seven losses have all come by 10 points or less to Oklahoma (73-82), Duke (64-74), Drexel (83-85), South Florida (64-66), Wichita State (67-72), Xavier (74-77) and UCLA (67-75).
As you can see, they have played a brutal schedule to this point and could have one every game that they played. This team is going to be a covering machine in the second half of the season due to its poor start record-wise, leaving it way undervalued.
Unlike Alabama, Georgia (7-6) is every bit as bad as its record would indicate. It has lost six games this season to Georgia Tech, Davidson, Temple, Nebraska, Colorado and George Washington. That slate doesn't come close to stacking up against the competition that Alabama has lost to.
Georgia is coming off a huge 70-64 overtime win at Missouri on Wednesday, setting it up for a big letdown spot here. The Bulldogs were playing for head coach Mark Fox, who recently lost his father. That was a classic 'win one for the gipper' game, but this one is not. The Bulldogs will get back to playing their same, poor basketball.
Alabama is a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Georgia. It has won its last two visits to Athens by finals of 52-45 and 74-59. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Bet Alabama Saturday.
|01-11-14||Memphis v. Temple +7.5||Top||79-69||Loss||-106||7 h 59 m||Show|
20* American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple +7.5
The Memphis Tigers are in a massive letdown spot here. I was all over them as a 10-point underdog at Louisville on Thursday in a 73-67 road victory. Now, I'm going to fade them two days late in a game I don't expect them to show up for.
It's only human nature for a team to lack focus after beating the defending national champs. That will be the problem for the Tigers in this one as they won't get Temple the focus they deserve.
Despite being just 5-8 this season, there's no question that the Owls are a hell of a lot better than their record would indicate. In fact, seven of their eight losses have come by 7 points or less. They simply haven't been getting it done in close games, and I fully expect this one to go down to the wire, too.
The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four Saturday games. The Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday games. Temple is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Memphis won't be able to celebrate its Louisville win for long as it gets stunned today by the Owls. Take Temple Saturday.
|01-10-14||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Utah Jazz -2||113-102||Loss||-110||9 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2
The Utah Jazz are playing their best basketball of the season right now, especially at home. They should be a much bigger favorite tonight against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who simply cannot win on the road.
Utah has won three of its last four games overall, including a 112-101 victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder last time out on Tuesday. The Jazz have reeled off a season-high four straight home wins, and a big reason for that is they are finally healthy.
Cleveland has lost eight of its last 10 games overall, and it is a woeful 2-15 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 11.0 points per game. The reason the Cavs are getting so much respect here is because of the trade for Luol Deng. However, it's going to take Deng some time to get acclimated to the new system. It's not like he makes them a playoff contender, either.
The Jazz have won six of their last seven meetings with the Cavaliers. The Jazz have won six of their last seven home meetings with Cleveland as well. Dating back further, Utah is 27-7 all-time against Cleveland in Salt Lake City.
Utah is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference home games. The Cavaliers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games. Cleveland is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 Friday games. Utah is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 vs. NBA Central Division foes. Cleveland is 9-21-1 ATS in its last 31 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents. Take the Jazz Friday.
|01-10-14||Houston Rockets -3 v. Atlanta Hawks||Top||80-83||Loss||-103||8 h 53 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets -3
The Houston Rockets should be a much heavier favorite tonight against the Atlanta Hawks. I'll gladly back them as a small 3-point road favorite as they look to build on their 23-13 record this season.
Dwight Howard has certainly enjoyed his new home in Houston, averaging 17.8 points, 12.9 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game to return to his former self when he was in Orlando. With Atlanta being without Al Horford for the rest of the season, Howard is in line for a big game tonight.
The Hawks are simply getting too much respect due to their 97-87 win over Indiana last time out. Prior to that game, they have lost four of their previous five games overall. They simply caught the Pacers, who were playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, in a good spot.
Houston has simply owned Atlanta in this series. It is a perfect 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in its last six meetings with the Hawks. All six wins have come by five points or more, including the last two in blowout fashion by finals of 113-84 and 123-104.
Plays on road favorites (HOUSTON) - off two or more consecutive home wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Atlanta. Bet the Rockets Friday.
|01-10-14||Washington Wizards +9 v. Indiana Pacers||66-93||Loss||-105||7 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9
The Indiana Pacers are clearly one of the best teams in the league. However, I believe they are being overvalued here as a big home favorite against the Washington Wizards. Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.
Indiana has failed to cover the spread in three straight games coming in. A big reason for that is the fact that it is in the midst of a very tough stretch, as this will be its 5th game in 7 days. That is one of the hardest situations for a team to go through.
The Wizards have been very competitive this season as they've quietly gone a respectable 16-17 to position themselves to make the playoffs. They are coming off back-to-back road wins at Charlotte and at New Orleans, and they really want to see where they stack up by going into Indiana and coming away with a victory.
Washington is going to want revenge from its ugly 73-93 loss to Indiana in their first meeting this season. However, that result was an aberration as the Wizards played the Pacers very tough prior to that result. Three of the previous four games were decided by eight points or less, and the only one that wasn't was a 104-85 home victory for the Wizards.
The Wizards are a very healthy 48-31 ATS as an underdog over the past two seasons. Washington is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games. The Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Eastern Conference foes. Roll with the Wizards Friday.
|01-09-14||California +8 v. Oregon||96-83||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California +8
The Oregon Ducks are one of the most overrated teams in the country. They opened 13-0 this season against a very easy schedule before suffering a reality check at Colorado over the weekend, falling by a final of 91-100. Oregon is now 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall, which included narrow wins over BYU (96-100) and Utah (68-70).
California is undervalued due to suffering four early-season losses, all of which came on the road against quality teams in Syracuse, Dayton, UC-Santa Barbara and Creighton. This is a team that returned four starters from last year and one to watch out for as a sleeper to win the Pac-12. The Bears are off to a good start in conference play, winning 69-62 at Stanford in their opener.
That game against Stanford was last time out, which was one week ago today. That means the Bears have had a full week to prepare for Oregon. Meanwhile, the Ducks played on Sunday, meaning that they have only had three practice days to get ready for California. The edge in rest and preparation clearly favors the Bears in this one.
"They'll have a full week, so we'll see a team that's very well-prepared," Oregon head coach Altman said. "You give Mike a full week, he's going to have them ready to go. So we're going to have to be really sharp."
California is a perfect 11-0 S.U. in its last 11 meetings with Oregon. This has clearly been a match-up of their liking throughout the years, and that was evident again last season as they took all three meetings with the Ducks. This 11-game winning streak dates back to 2009 and cannot be ignored, especially with four starters back from last season. Roll with California Thursday.
|01-09-14||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets +3||Top||88-101||Win||100||11 h 22 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3
The Oklahoma City Thunder should not be favorite on the road at Denver tonight. This Thunder team is only a shell of itself without Russell Westbrook, and that has been evident of late. The Thunder has lost three of their last four games overall, including a home loss to Brooklyn, an da road loss to Utah (101-112).
Denver comes in playing well having won three straight with home victories over Memphis (111-108) and Boston (129-98), as well as a road win over the Lakers (129-98). A big reason for the turnaround is that head coach Brian Shaw has opened up the offense and allowed his players a little more free reign. The result has been an average of 125.7 points and 53.1 percent shooting during this three-game streak.
"Coach (Brian Shaw) let us hoop. He just let us get out and play," forward Kenneth Faried said. "He figured out that this altitude is a killer for teams and the personnel that we have is people who will get out and run, play great defense and it's fun when we do that instead of just calling plays all the time. It has really held and it got the burden off our back of wondering what he wants."
Faried has averaged 18.0 points on 20-of-29 shooting during the win streak after scoring 7.5 per game in his previous 12. Point guard Ty Lawson, meanwhile, has posted a season-best four consecutive double-doubles. Randy Foye has scored in double figures in six straight and has a season-high 23 against Boston on Tuesday, including seven made 3-pointers.
The Nuggets will be out for revenge tonight after having lost each of their first two meetings of the season with the Thunder. How important was Russell Westbrook in those two wins? The star guard averaged 25.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists and clearly was the driving force behind them.
The Nuggets are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Better yet, Denver is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than 60%. The Nuggets are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win of more than 10 points. Bet the Nuggets Thursday.
|01-09-14||Memphis +10 v. Louisville||Top||73-67||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
20* Memphis/Louisville ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Memphis +10
The Louisville Cardinals are being way overvalued here tonight as a double-digit favorite against a very good Memphis team that will be making the NCAA Tournament. A win over Louisville tonight would certainly boost its chances.
I believe the reason this line has been inflated is due to the fact that Memphis is coming off its worst loss of the season, a 53-69 setback at home against Cincinnati. However, I have no doubt that the Tigers were looking ahead to this game, and that they simply overlooked the Bearcats.
Memphis is battle-tested in the early going having already played the likes of Florida, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State (twice) and LSU. It beat Oklahoma State and LSU, while also only losing to Florida by a mere two points. This team has proven that they can play with anyone in the country.
Another reason that the Cardinals are overvalued is that they won the title last year. However, against their two toughest opponents this season, they have been exposed. They lost to North Carolina (84-93) on a neutral court, while also falling at Kentucky (66-73). They honestly do not have a single good win this season as they rest of their opponents have been cupcakes. That's evident by the fact that they have been a double-digit favorite in all but one game this year.
Memphis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games following three or more consecutive road games. The Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cardinals, including 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Louisville. The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Memphis Thursday.
|01-08-14||Boise State +7 v. San Diego State||66-69||Win||100||11 h 46 m||Show|
15* Boise/SDSU ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Boise State +7
The Boise State Broncos get the call tonight as a road underdog to the San Diego State Aztecs. This is a perfect spot bet on the Broncos, who will be the more motivated team tonight, hands down.
San Diego State is coming off its biggest win of the season, a 61-57 triumph at Kansas on Sunday. Rarely does anyone escape Lawrence with a victory, but the Aztecs accomplished that feat. It's only human nature for them to return home and suffer a letdown three days later.
This was a very closely-contested series last year. San Diego State won two of three meetings by finals of 63-62 at home, and 73-67 on a neutral court in the MWC Tournament. Boise State won 69-65 at home.
As you can see, all three meetings were decided by six points or less. Dating back to 2012, the last four meetings have been decided by six or fewer. Boise State, which returns five starters from last year, will be the more motivated team due to losing two of three last season.
The Broncos are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games. San Diego State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven conference games. The Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Roll with Boise State Wednesday.
|01-08-14||Phoenix Suns +8 v. Minnesota Timberwolves||Top||104-103||Win||100||10 h 55 m||Show|
20* Suns/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on Phoenix +8
The Phoenix Suns are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as an 8-point underdog to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Somehow, despite their 20-13 start, this team continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.
As a result, Phoenix has gone a sensational 23-9 ATS on the season. Sure, it is playing the second of a back-to-back off a loss at Chicago last night, but it had two days off prior to that game so fatigue will not be an issue for this deep team.
It's easy to see why the Suns are showing such good value tonight. Even in their losses they have been competitive. Indeed, the Suns have only lost three of their 33 games by more than eight points this season. That makes for a 30-3 system backing Phoenix pertaining to tonight's 8-point spread.
Phoenix is 14-3 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 99 or more points per game this season. The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Timberwolves are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Minnesota is 9-23-1 ATS in its last 33 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Suns Wednesday.
|01-08-14||Colorado -7 v. Washington State||Top||71-70||Loss||-106||9 h 20 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado -7
I've been riding the Colorado Buffaloes with a lot of success this season, and I'm going to continue to do so tonight as I don't believe the oddsmakers have adjusted enough for how good this team really is.
I was on the Buffaloes as a 3-point favorite against Oregon Sunday in a game they won 100-91 at home to hand the Ducks their first loss. While some will see this as a letdown spot, I don't. Colorado can't afford letdowns if it wants to make the NCAA Tournament after falling just short last year.
This is a team that returned four starters from last season and one that will make some noise in the Big Dance. Their only losses have come to Baylor and Oklahoma State on a neutral court, and they have beaten the likes of Harvard, Kansas and Oregon already. The Buffs outrebound their opponents by nine boards per game, and shoot 12 more free throws than the opposition on average.
Washington State is in shambles right now. It has opened 7-7, including back-to-back blowout road losses to Arizona (25-60) and Arizona State (47-66) to open conference play. It's no surprise that these blowout losses have occurred considering they are without leading scorer DeVonte Lacy (17.7 ppg) for the past two games. He is expected to sit out this one, too. The Cougars' second-leading scorer is Royce Woolridge (9.8 ppg), so they are clearly lost offensively without Lacy.
'We have got to get better offensively," WSU coach Ken Bone said. "It's hard when arguably your best player, definitely your best scorer, is not out there, so again to try to manufacture points in creative ways. It makes it a little bit difficult, to say the least, but you got to keep plugging at it."
The Buffaloes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Colorado is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a win. The Cougars are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with Colorado Wednesday.
|01-08-14||Illinois +10 v. Wisconsin||70-95||Loss||-106||9 h 19 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois +10
The Wisconsin Badgers are way overvalued right now due to their perfect 15-0 start to the season. They have no business being a double-digit favorite against a very good Illinois team tonight, and I'll take advantage and fade them because of it.
Illinois is off to a 13-2 start this season with solid home wins over Indiana and Penn State to open conference play, as well as impressive road wins over Missouri and UNLV. In fact, Illinois' only two losses this season came by a combined 10 points on the road against Georgia Tech (64-67) and Oregon (64-71).
For the most part, Wisconsin has beaten up on an easy schedule. However, in games against its stiffest competition, all have been decided by 10 points or less. The Badgers beat Florida (59-53), Saint Louis (63-57), West Virginia (70-63), Virginia (48-38), Marquette (70-64) and Iowa (75-71) all by 10 points or less.
Really, this team is fortunate to be undefeated right now as it continues to win its close games. This one will go right down to the wire as well. The Fighting Illini are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Illinois Wednesday.
|01-08-14||Texas +12.5 v. Oklahoma State||74-87||Loss||-110||9 h 19 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas +12.5
The Texas Longhorns are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They have opened 11-3 and have gotten back to playing team basketball under head coach Rick Barnes. Their only losses have come by BYU, Michigan State and Oklahoma with two of those coming by four points or less.
Texas does have some impressive wins on its resume, most notably its 86-83 victory at North Carolina as a 10.5-point underdog. The Longhorns did lose their Big 12 opener by a final of 85-88 against a very good Oklahoma team, but that result will only have them coming back more hungry tonight.
Oklahoma State is one of the better teams in the land, but it has no business being a double-digit favorite against Texas tonight. I went against the Cowboys as a 5.5-point favorite at Kansas State over the weekend as the Wildcats won outright. I'll gladly fade them again here as they are clearly overvalued.
The Cowboys are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. Oklahoma State is 6-16 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 8 or more points per game over the past two seasons. The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Texas is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games following a S.U. loss. The Cowboys are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Texas Wednesday.
|01-08-14||Wake Forest +11.5 v. Virginia||Top||51-74||Loss||-110||7 h 37 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +11.5
The Virginia Cavaliers are getting way too much respect from the books as a double-digit home favorite over the Wake Forest Demon Deacons tonight. I'll take advantage and back the dog in a game that will go right down to the wire.
Wake Forest is off to an 11-3 start this season, which includes a win over North Carolina last time out. Its only losses have come against Kansas, Tennessee and Xavier, which are three very good teams. This is a squad that returned four starters from last year and will be a tough out in the ACC all year.
Virginia is clearly not as good as it is perceived. This team has gone just 10-4 this season with some ugly losses along the way at home against Wisconsin (38-48) and on the road against Tennessee (52-87). It is coming off a 62-50 win at Florida State, but I believe that is why it is overvalued here.
Joe Harris, who led the team with 16.3 points per game last year and is their best player, went out with a concussion against Florida State early. That's why it was impressive that the Cavaliers went on to win that game, but they clearly are not the same team without this guy over the long haul. Harris is listed as doubtful to play tonight. Even if he does play, this spread is inflated, so it would just be an added bonus if he sits.
The Cavaliers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Virginia is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games. The Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. The Demon Deacons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with Virginia. Take Wake Forest Wednesday.
|01-07-14||Portland Trail Blazers v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 217.5||119-123||Loss||-107||10 h 1 m||Show|
15* Blazers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 217.5
The Portland Trail Blazers have created expectations for themselves as a high-scoring, dominant team that they cannot live up to. That is certainly reflected in this total tonight as the books have simply set the bar too high between the Blazers and Kings. One look at their season averages shows that.
Portland is averaging 108.7 points per game and giving up 102.6 points per game, combining with its opponents for an average of 211.3 points. Sacramento is scoring 100.6 points per game and giving up 104.5 points per game, combining with its opponents for an average of 205.1 points. The total should be set somewhere in between those averages around 208, providing us nearly 10 points of value with tonight's total set of 217.5.
One look at recent meetings between these teams, and it's also easy to see that this number has been inflated. You have to go all the way back to 2005 to find the last time these teams exceeded this total. Indeed, each of the last 31 meetings between the Kings and Blazers have seen 215 or fewer combined points, making for a perfect 31-0 system pertaining to tonight's total set.
Each of the last 10 meetings have seen 207 or fewer combined points, including a 96-85 road win for Portland in their first meeting this season on November 9. To compare, the oddsmakers set that total at 198.5 points. Now, two months later, they are setting it 19 points higher. You can just see that the value is with the UNDER in this one folks. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|01-07-14||Cincinnati v. Houston +9.5||Top||61-60||Win||100||9 h 56 m||Show|
20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston +9.5
The Houston Cougars are showing their best value of the season tonight. Asking the Cincinnati Bearcats to go on the road and win at Houston by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.
The Cougars returned three starters from last year and a ton of talent. They have opened 10-5 this season, including 7-1 at home, where they have been virtually unbeatable. That includes a 75-71 win over UConn as a 9-point underdog. TaShawn Thomas (17.5 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 3.7 bpg) is an absolute beast and can carry this team when he needs to.
Cincinnati comes in red hot having won six straight, including an impressive 69-53 win at Memphis last time out despite being a 5.5-point underdog. However, I believe that win has the Bearcats way overvalued here, and they could easily suffer a letdown because of it. Remember, this team lost on the road to both New Mexico (54-63) and Xavier (47-64) in blowout fashion earlier this year.
Plays against road teams as an favorite or pick (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Cincinnati is 0-9 ATS after playing a road game over the last two seasons. The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS off an upset win by 15 points or more as an underdog since 1997. Houston is 6-0 ATS in home games after two straight games with nine or less offensive rebounds over the last three seasons. The Cougars are 6-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two years. These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Cougars. Roll with Houston Tuesday.
|01-07-14||Ohio State +5.5 v. Michigan State||68-72||Win||100||8 h 16 m||Show|
15* Ohio State/MSU ESPN Big Ten BAILOUT on Ohio State +5.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes should not be an underdog to the Michigan State Spartans tonight. The Buckeyes are off to a perfect 15-0 start this year and continue to get little respect from the books.
To open up Big Ten play, the Buckeyes have covered two straight with a 78-69 road win at Purdue as a 6-point favorite, and an 84-53 home win over Nebraska as a 15.5-point favorite. They have four starters back from last year including Aaron Craft, who guides what I believe to be the best defensive team in the country. The Buckeyes only allow 54.9 points per game and 36.9% shooting.
Michigan State is off to a great start as well at 13-1, but I believe this team has a lot more problems than most. The Spartans survived several close calls in the early going, and they proved they were beatable when North Carolina went into East Lansing and throttled them 79-65. MSU has rebounded since, winning and covering each of its last five games, but as a result it is overvalued heading into this one.
This has been a very closely-contested series to say the least, so I'm going to take all the points I can get. Remarkably, each of the last five meetings have been decided by eight points or less, including four by four points or fewer. The one eight-point game was a 68-60 home win for Ohio State. So, the Buckeyes have not lost by more than four points to Michigan State in any of the last five meetings. Ohio State is also 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to East Lansing.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 93-47 (66.4%) ATS since 1997. Ohio State is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 Tuesday road games. The Buckeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents. Ohio State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Buckeyes Tuesday.
|01-07-14||Toronto Raptors v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 188||Top||79-86||Win||100||6 h 22 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Pacers UNDER 188
The Toronto Raptors and Indiana Pacers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This will be the third meeting of the season already between these teams, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games.
The first two have been very competitive and very low-scoring. Indiana beat Toronto 91-84 at home for 175 combined points on November 8, but the Raptors would have their revenge with a 95-82 home victory on January 1 for 177 combined points.
Dating back further, and not counting overtime, the Pacers and Raptors have combined for 180 or fewer points in each of the last six meetings. They have combined for an average of 171.7 points per game at the end of regulation over this span, which is over 16 points less than tonight's posted total.
Both teams like to play at a slow tempo, and both get after it defensively. Indiana ranks 24th in the league in pace at 95.0 possessions per game, while Toronto is 22nd in pace at 95.1 possessions per game. Indiana ranks 1st in defensive efficiency at 93.1 points per 100 possessions allowed, and Toronto is 7th in defensive efficiency at 100.6 points per 100 possessions.
Indiana is 7-0 to the UNDER in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season. The Pacers are 11-1 to the UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Pacers are 14-3 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this year. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|01-07-14||Tennessee v. LSU -2.5||68-50||Loss||-110||7 h 56 m||Show|
15* Tennessee/LSU ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on LSU -2.5
The LSU Tigers (9-3) are coming off an ugly 70-74 home loss to Rhode Island, which I believe has them undervalued here. They were obviously looking ahead to their first SEC game, and I fully expect them to come back motivated with their best effort of the season tonight.
I have a lost of respect for Tennessee as I have backed them a couple times this year. However, after three straight blowout home wins, I believe this team is overvalued. Remember, the Vols were beaten 61-70 at Wichita State and at home against NC State by a final of 58-65 prior to this winning streak.
LSU returned four starters from last year, and these guys will be motivated to put an end to a five-game losing streak to Tennessee in this series. There are some absolute studs in this group of returnees, led by Johnny O'Bryant III (14.4 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and Jordan Mickey (14.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 3.6 bpg), who hold down the paint inside.
Tennessee is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games after scoring 85 points or more in two straight games. The Vols are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games after two straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better. Tennessee is 0-2 SU in true road games this season, and 1-4 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. Bet LSU Tuesday.
|01-06-14||Orlando Magic +9.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||81-101||Loss||-108||11 h 20 m||Show|
15* Magic/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Orlando +9.5
The Orlando Magic are showing tremendous value Monday night. Asking the Los Angeles Clippers to win by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much. I'll gladly take the points on the Magic in this one.
In its first game without Chris Paul (shoulder), Los Angeles was destroyed 92-116 at San Antonio on Saturday. The oddsmakers aren't giving Paul enough credit with this line as he's clearly worth more to the Clippers than this.
Orlando comes in undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in three straight games. Well, two of those were against two of the best teams in the league in the Heat and Warriors, so they come in battle-tested. The Magic have gone a very profitable 9-6 ATS in all road games this season.
The Magic beat the Clippers once already this season with a 98-90 home victory despite being a 7-point underdog. They also won their last visit to Los Angeles by a final of 104-101 last season as a 13.5-point dog. They clearly aren't afraid of the Clippers, especially now that they are without their best player in Paul.
Orlando is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Orlando is 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 meetings with the Clippers, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings in Los Angeles dating back to 2008. Take the Magic Monday.
|01-06-14||Auburn v. Florida State -8||Top||31-34||Loss||-110||74 h 39 m||Show|
25* BCS Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State -8
The Florida State Seminoles have been the most dominant team in the country all season. All 13 of their victories have come by 14 points or more, including 12 by 25 or more. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 42.3 points per game on the season to simply destroy the opposition. The result has been a very profitable 11-2 record against the spread for bettors who have been willing to lay these big numbers on the Seminoles all season.
Florida State is putting up 53.0 points and 531.7 yards per game to rank 6th in the country in total offense. Jameis Winston won the Heisman Trophy winner after completing 67.9 percent of his passes for 3,820 yards with 38 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, while also rushing for 193 yards and four scores. The offense has been impressive, but the Seminoles have been even better on the other side of the ball. They are giving up just 10.7 points and 269.3 yards per game to rank 3rd in the country in total defense.
The extra time to prepare for this game will favor FSU more than it will Auburn. That
|01-05-14||Arkansas State v. Ball State -6.5||Top||23-20||Loss||-110||50 h 9 m||Show|
20* Arkansas State/Ball State Go Daddy Bowl BAILOUT on Ball State -6.5
The Ball State Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have been crushing opponents due to a high-powered offense en route to a 10-2 campaign heading into this bowl game. I look for them to roll against Arkansas State by a touchdown or more.
First and foremost, Ball State is going to be extra motivated to get its first bowl win in school history. It is 0-7-1 in eight previous bowl games, and there's no question this team represents their best chance to put an end to this horrid streak.
Ball State is lead by senior quarterback Keith Wenning, who is the all-time leader in touchdown passes (91), passing yards 11,187) and completions (1,012) in school history. He threw for career highs of 3,933 yards and 34 touchdowns while tossing only six interceptions this season.
Wenning leads a Ball State offense that ranks 18th in the country in total offense at 486.3 yards per game. While the defense has been giving up a lot of yards, it is among the nation's leaders in forcing turnovers at 2.5 per game. It has 18 fumble recoveries alone.
Arkansas State is one of the worst bowl teams in the country. It is gaining just 413 yards per game against opponents that allow 441 yards per game on the season. It is giving up 418 yards per game against opponents that only average 388 yards per game. As you can see, it has underachieved on both sides of the football this season when you compare its numbers to its opponents season averages.
The Red Wolves will find it hard to be motivated Sunday knowing that they will have a fourth head coach in four years next season. For a second straight year, defensive coordinator John Thompson will be leading this team in their bowl game. These players have to be getting really, really sick of all the changes, and it's certainly a distraction.
Arkansas State has some performances this season that were really head scratchers. It lost at Memphis 7-31 while getting outgained 155-505 for the game. It lost 7-23 at home to Louisiana-Lafayette while gaining a mere 168 total yards in the loss. It also barely beat Georgia State 35-33 at home as a 24-point favorite late in the year, getting outgained by the Panthers 290-432.
Ball State's two losses both came on the road to bowl teams in North Texas (27-34) and Northern Illinois (27-48). The game against NIU was close the entire way until a couple of garbage touchdowns late. Indeed, it was a 27-27 game with less than six minutes to play in the fourth quarter.
The Red Wolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Ball State is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games overall. The Cardinals are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Take Ball State Sunday.
|01-05-14||Indiana Pacers v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 187||82-78||Win||100||7 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Cavaliers UNDER 187
I'm backing the UNDER in this game between the Indiana Pacers and Cleveland Cavaliers Sunday. Both teams play at a very slow pace, and each gets after it defensively due to their defensive-minded head coaches.
Cleveland ranks 17th in the league in pace at 95.9 possessions per game. Indiana ranks 21st in pace at 95.2 possessions per game. The Pacers rank 1st in defensive efficiency, surrendering just 93.3 points per 100 possessions. Cleveland ranks 28th in offensive efficiency at 96.9 points per 100 possessions.
The Cavaliers could be without Kyrie Irving again today, which would only be an added bonus for this UNDER. I am backing the UNDER whether or not Irving plays, but considering he sat out Saturday's game with a bruised knee, there's a good chance he's not healthy enough to return Sunday. He is currently listed as questionable.
These teams have met twice this season, and both have been extremely low scoring. Indiana beat Cleveland 89-74 at home on November 11 for 163 combined points. Indiana also won 91-76 at home on December 31 for 167 combined points. So, these teams are obviously very familiar with one another having played twice already, which certainly favors a low-scoring game tonight.
The UNDER is 6-1 in Pacers last seven games overall. The UNDER is 50-20-2 in Cavaliers last 72 Sunday games. The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Cavaliers last 15 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|01-05-14||Golden State Warriors v. Washington Wizards +4||112-96||Loss||-110||7 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Wizards +4
The Golden State Warriors have been put up on a pedestal due to their recent win over the Miami Heat on Thursday night. I faded them with success by backing the Hawks +3 Friday in a 1-point Warriors' win. I'll continue to fade them tonight as they are clearly in a letdown spot here off back-to-back huge road wins over the Heat and Hawks.
Off back-to-back home losses, the Wizards certainly won't be lacking any motivation tonight. They are undervalued due to their recent poor play, but after their head coach called them out, I look for them to come back with one of their best efforts of the season Sunday.
"More selfish play than we've had. We can't play that way. We've proven over the last couple years we can't play that way," Randy Wittman said. "Getting concerned with, `Why am I coming out? How many minutes am I getting? How many shots am I getting?' Rather than: `What is the team doing?' ... We're not good enough to do it that way."
Some of the players on the team were in agreement following an 88-101 home loss to Toronto Friday, getting booed by their fans. "At times, it looked like we didn't want to play," said Trevor Booker, who had eight points and 13 rebounds. "It's pretty embarrassing, especially when they started booing us."
Washington is a sensational 20-8 ATS as a home underdog over the past two seasons. The Wizards are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in. The Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games. Washington is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss. The Wizards are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a S.U. loss. The Wizards are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Wizards Sunday.
|01-05-14||Oregon v. Colorado -3||91-100||Win||100||15 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado -3
The Colorado Buffaloes are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have opened the season 12-2 with their only losses coming to Baylor and Oklahoma State on a neutral court. They have beaten the likes of Harvard and Kansas this season.
Colorado has one of the best home-court advantages in the land dating back to last year. It has opened 10-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.4 points per game. The Buffaloes are 4-1 against Oregon since joining the Pac-12, and they have won all four meetings in Boulder all-time.
Oregon is simply overvalued right now due to its 13-0 start. It is coming off a 70-68 overtime victory at Utah last time out, but it won't be as fortunate against a much better Colorado team today. The Buffaloes have won four straight at home against Top 25 teams after beating then-No. 6 Kansas on December 7.
The Ducks are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 vs. Pac-12 opponents. The Buffaloes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win. Colorado is 23-11-1 ATS in its last 35 games following an ATS loss. The Buffaloes are 4-0 ATS in their last four Sunday games. Roll with Colorado Sunday.
|01-05-14||San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Green Bay Packers||Top||23-20||Win||100||68 h 39 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Packers NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on San Francisco -2.5
Given the 49ers
|01-04-14||New Orleans Saints +2.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles||26-24||Win||102||47 h 9 m||Show|
15* Saints/Eagles NFC Wild Card BAILOUT on New Orleans +2.5
|01-04-14||New Orleans Pelicans v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 194.5||Top||82-99||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pelicans/Pacers UNDER 194.5
The books have simply set the bar too high in this game between the New Orleans Pelicans and Indiana Pacers. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight with neither team exceeding 95 points in this one.
It's sad to say it, but one of the biggest reasons I like this UNDER is that New Orleans sharp-shooter Ryan Anderson was carted off the court last night with a neck injury. The Pelicans aren't nearly as efficient without Anderson, who leads the team in scoring (19.8 ppg) while also shooting 40.9 percent from 3-point range and 95.2 percent from the free throw line. It's a huge blow to them offensively.
Now, the Pelicans will be up against the best defensive team in the NBA. Indeed, the Pacers rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 93.4 points per 100 possessions. Indiana also like to play at a slow tempo, ranking 21st in the league in pace at 95.3 possessions per game. New Orleans is 19th in pace at 95.8 possessions per contest.
If you don't count overtime, the last four meetings between the Pacers and Pelicans would have gone UNDER this posted total of 194.5. They have combined for 185, 176, 194 and 186 points at the end of regulation in their last four meetings, respectively. There's clearly a ton of value with this UNDER tonight ladies and gents.
Indiana is 18-6 to the UNDER as a favorite this season, including 12-4 to the UNDER as a home favorite. The UNDER is 13-4 in Pacers last 17 home games overall. The UNDER is 22-10-1 in the last 33 meetings in this series. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|01-04-14||Louisville v. Rutgers +17||83-76||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
15* American Athletic PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +17
This play is more of a fade of the Louisville Cardinals than anything. They are simply way overvalued after winning the championship last year, and after their 12-2 start this season. They have no business being a 17-point favorite at Rutgers Saturday.
Forward Chase Behanan has been dismissed from the team recently, leaving Louisville thin along the front line. It didn't bother them one bit in a 90-65 win at UCF in its first game without Behanan last time out. However, that result is the reason that the Cardinals are overvalued here, and I fully expect them to come back down to earth in their second game without him.
Rutgers is off to a respectable 7-7 start this season while being competitive in every game under first-year coach, Eddie Jordan. Indeed, all seven of the Scarlet Knights' losses this season have come by 11 points or fewer, including five by 6 points or less. They are coming off an impressive 71-66 home victory over Temple last time out and are fully capable of competing with Louisville, which may be looking ahead to its game against Memphis next.
The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Roll with Rutgers Saturday.
|01-04-14||Kansas City Chiefs v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 46.5||Top||44-45||Loss||-110||44 h 34 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chiefs/Colts UNDER 46.5
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Wild Card Round. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in what I believe is going to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.
I was on the UNDER when these teams just met in Week 16 as the total was inflated then and closed at 47. Indianapolis won by a final of 23-7 in an important game for both teams. The Colts outgained the Chiefs 367-287 in the win as neither offense was dynamic.
Now, the books have failed to adjust enough and have set basically an identical total to the first meeting. I believe we'll see a similar combined point total of 30 points between these teams. They are very familiar with one another after playing two weeks ago, which clearly favors a defensive battle.
Both teams have been solid on defense as the Chiefs are yielding just 19.1 points per game, while the Colts are giving up 21.0 points per contest. Neither team has been dominant offensively this season as the Chiefs rank 21st in total offense at 337.3 yards per game, and the Colts rank 15th at 341.7 yards per contest. Indianapolis has really been hurting on this side of the ball since losing Reggie Wayne as well.
Indianapolis and Kansas City have gone UNDER the total in five of their last six games overall. They have combined for 33 or fewer points in five of those six meetings. That's impressive when you consider that three of those came with Peyton Manning under center for the Colts.
Kansas City is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Chiefs are 6-0 to the UNDER after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. The Colts are 10-0 to the UNDER when playing on a Saturday since 1992. The UNDER is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 Saturday games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Colts last 4 Wild Card Games. These five trends combine for a perfect 32-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|01-04-14||Oklahoma State v. Kansas State +6.5||Top||71-74||Win||100||7 h 8 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +6.5
The Kansas State Wildcats get the call Saturday as a home underdog to the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys are one of the most overrated teams in the country due to playing a pretty soft schedule up to this point and getting through it at 12-1.
Kansas State is playing its best basketball of the season heading into this win, winning eight straight games while going 6-1 ATS in lined games in the process. That includes wins over Ole Miss (61-58) and Gonzaga (72-62) to prove that they are for real. Their last two games weren't even close as they rolled over Tulane (72-41) and George Washington (72-55).
The Wildcats have owned the Cowboys in recent meetings. They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with their only loss coming by a final of 70-76 on the road last season. I like that dominance to continue in the Big 12 opener today with likely an outright victory, though I'll gladly take the points for some insurance.
Kansas State is 8-1 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 16-1 ATS in their last 17 home games after two straight wins by 10 or more points. The Cowboys are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with Kansas State Saturday.
|01-04-14||West Virginia v. TCU +5||74-69||Push||0||7 h 8 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on TCU +5
Off a disastrous 2012-13 campaign, the TCU Horned Frogs came into the 2013-14 season way undervalued. They remain that way as a home underdog to the West Virginia Mountaineers in their Big 12 opener Saturday when they really should be the favorite.
TCU has opened 9-3 this year while going 5-1 ATS in all lined games to show how underrated it really is. Two of the three losses came against very good SMU and Harvard teams on a neutral court. The Frogs have gone on the road and beaten Washington State (64-62) as a 14-point dog, and Mississippi State (71-61) as an 8.5-point dog. They have also beaten Tulsa twice.
West Virginia has been unimpressive en route to an 8-5 start this season. It doesn't have a good win all season as its eight victories have come against the likes of Mount St. Mary's, Duquesne, Georgia Southern, Presbyterian, Old Dominion, Loyola-Maryland, Marshall and William & Mary. The Mountaineers were at least a 7.5-point favorite in all of those games.
The Mountaineers are 1-10 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or more of their attempts over the past two seasons. West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. Big 12 opponents. The Mountaineers are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. WVU is 16-33-2 ATS in its last 51 games overall. Take TCU Saturday.
|01-04-14||Washington +17.5 v. Arizona||Top||62-71||Win||100||5 h 37 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington +17.5
The Washington Huskies are showing tremendous value as a massive road underdog to the Arizona Wildcats today. I'll take advantage and back them as 17.5-point underdog fresh off their biggest win of the season.
I was all over the Huskies last time out as they went into Arizona State and came away with a 76-65 victory as a 10.5-point underdog. I still believe this team is underrated and their best is yet to come. There's no question that the Wildcats will bring out the best in them.
Arizona is the No. 1 ranked team in the country and for good reason. However, it has created expectations for itself that it simply cannot live up to in the near future now that we have entered conference play. That is especially the case off a 60-25 win over Washington State. There's no question that the value in this game is with the Huskies, especially considering that the Wildcats could be looking ahead to UCLA.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (WASHINGTON) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Arizona is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a home win over a conference rival. Lorenzo Romar is 22-6 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points in all games he has coached. The Huskies are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Washington Saturday.
|01-04-14||Houston +3 v. Vanderbilt||Top||24-41||Loss||-105||41 h 29 m||Show|
20* Houston/Vanderbilt Compass Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Houston +3
The win total for the Houston Cougars coming into the season was just five. They exceeded expectations and could have finished even better than their 8-4 record win you look at all of their impressive, close losses. I'll gladly back the Cougars as an underdog to Vanderbilt in the Compass Bowl Saturday.
Indeed, Houston lost four games this season by a touchdown or less to four bowl teams in BYU (46-47), UCF (14-19), Louisville (13-20) and Cincinnati (17-24). UCF beat Baylor in a BCS bowl, while Louisville rolled Miami. Both of those losses to the Knights and Cardinals were on the road, too.
The Cougars are putting up 33.9 points per game offensively behind freshman quarterback John O'Korn. The freshman threw 26 touchdowns against eight interceptions on the season. His favorite target was standout wide receiver Deontay Greenberry, who caught 76 balls for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns.
"It was just an amazing experience and such a blessing to start as a true freshman for the majority of the season," O'Korn said. "Going into the season, our motto was 'Something to Prove' and I think we proved a lot, as coach preached by our entire body of work. Those close to the program know we haven't even reached our full potential yet, so we are really excited about this coming game obviously and next season moving forward."
Vanderbilt had a great season as well, finishing with eight wins on the year. However, the Commodores were very fortunate to win eight games because they played one of the easiest schedules in the SEC. Also, two of their wins were against injury-plagued Florida and Georgia teams. I believe blowout losses to Missouri (28-51) and Texas A&M (24-56) are a much truer indication of how good this team is.
Making matters worse for the Commodores is that they will be without starting quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels, which is a huge blow to the offense. Carta-Samuels had 2,268 passing yards and 11 touchdowns on the season, while also rushing for 115 yards and five scores.
Backup Patton Robinette started the two games that Carta-Samuels missed. He completed 21 of 40 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions in a blowout loss to Texas A&M (24-56) and a fluke win over Florida (34-17). The Commodores were outgained 183-344 by the Gators and should have never won that game.
The Cougars are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Houston is 8-1 ATS vs. awful passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse over the last three seasons. The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven vs. SEC opponents. Roll with Houston Saturday.
|01-04-14||Nebraska +17.5 v. Ohio State||53-84||Loss||-110||3 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +17.5
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country by season's end. I believe they show that tonight and hang with a very good Ohio State team to stay within this inflated number, giving us the cover.
The Cornhuskers have played three very tough games in their last five contests overall, which will have them battle-tested heading into this showdown. They lost at Creighton (67-82), at Cincinnati (69-74) and at Iowa (57-67). This is a team that returned all five starters from a year ago and will be competitive in Big Ten play.
Ohio State is overvalued due to opening the season 14-0. It has created expectations for itself in terms of the point spread heading into conference play that it cannot live up to. Plus, I fully expect the Buckeyes to be looking ahead to their showdown against Michigan State on Tuesday, which will also help allow the Huskers to stay within the number.
Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (OHIO ST) - after 8 or more consecutive wins, undefeated on the season are 67-39 (63.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Tim Miles is 11-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival as the coach of Nebraska. Miles is 7-0 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive road games as the coach of Nebraska. Bet Nebraska Saturday.
|01-03-14||Nebraska-Omaha +10 v. Hawaii||73-77||Win||100||12 h 6 m||Show|
15* Nebraska-Omaha/Hawaii CBB Midnight BAILOUT on Nebraska-Omaha +10
Nebraska-Omaha is a team that I have been on all season. I'm not about to stop now, especially catching them as a double-digit underdog against Hawaii tonight. This team will be ready to give the Warriors a fight tonight.
Despite playing a brutal schedule, the Mavericks have managed to open 10-4 and remain one of the most underrated teams in the country just because the betting public does not know about them. Their four losses have against quality competition, too.
Nebraska-Omaha lost at Iowa (75-83) as a 29.5-point underdog, at UNLV (70-73) as a 14-point dog, at Drake (80-88) as a 5.5-point dog, and at Minnesota (79-92) as a 16-point dog. As you can see, they have only lost by double-digits once all season, and No. 2 will not be coming tonight.
This is a Mavericks team that returned four starters from last season and does a lot of things right. They are scoring 84.9 points per game thanks in large part to their 78.2% from throw shooting. They don't foul often defensively, yielding an average of only 22 free throw attempts per game.
Nebraska-Omaha is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Friday.
|01-03-14||Clemson +3 v. Ohio State||Top||40-35||Win||100||26 h 42 m||Show|
20* Clemson/Ohio State Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Clemson +3
The Clemson Tigers are certainly happy to be playing in a BCS Bowl Game after capping off a 10-win regular season. Sure, they lost by double-digits to both Florida State and South Carolina, but a closer look into those games shows that they gave them away. They committed a combined 10 turnovers in the two losses, including six against the Gamecocks. It
|01-03-14||Oklahoma State v. Missouri +2||31-41||Win||100||25 h 27 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma State/Missouri Cotton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +2
The Missouri Tigers never really got the respect they deserved all season. Picked my most to finish near the bottom of the SEC East, the Tigers wound up winning the division to earn a trip to the SEC Championship Game. Had they beaten Auburn, they would likely be playing in the BCS Championship. They fought tough, compiling 534 yards of total offense, but lost in the end by a final of 42-59. This team is very excited with their season and more than happy to be playing in the Cotton Bowl, looking to end the year on a positive note.
The same may not be the case for the Cowboys, who let a tremendous opportunity slip through their fingertips. They controlled their own destiny against Oklahoma in the season finale, needing to win to capture the Big 12 Title and a BCS Bowl game. They would lose by a final of 24-33 at home despite being a 9.5-point favorite. That kind of loss is going to be much more difficult for the Cowboys to get over because they were actually one of the favorites to win the conference this season. Missouri was an underdog all year, and it is a dog again in the Cotton Bowl, showing tremendous value.
Missouri boasts an explosive offense that is putting up 39.0 points and 492.9 yards per game to rank 17th in the country in total offense. Few teams in the land have the kind of balance that the Tigers do, which makes them so difficult to contain. They average 236.5 yards per game on the ground and 256.5 through the air. Dual-threat quarterback James Franklin has been awesome when healthy, and the senior certainly wants to go out a winner. Franklin is completing 65.5 percent of his passes for 2,254 yards with 19 touchdowns against five interceptions, while also rushing for 474 yards and four scores.
An SEC team should almost never be an underdog to a Big 12 team on a neutral field, especially when it's one of the top teams in the SEC. There's no doubt that the Tigers played the tougher schedule this season, and that will work in their favor as they'll be more battle-tested in this one. Their only losses came to South Carolina and Auburn, and they even blew a 17-0 lead against the Gamecocks or they'd be 12-1 right now.
The Tigers are 10-2-1 against the spread in all games this season. Missouri is 9-0 against the number after allowing 375 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. The Tigers are 22-9 against the spread in their last 31 games after allowing 42 or more points last game. Missouri is 33-16 against the spread off a loss by 17 points or more since 1992. Head coach Gary Pinkel is 15-3 against the spread off a loss by 17 points or more as the coach of Missouri. The Tigers are 25-4 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Take Missouri in the Cotton Bowl Friday.
|01-03-14||Golden State Warriors v. Atlanta Hawks +3||101-100||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Atlanta Hawks +3
The Atlanta Hawks (18-14) have been underrated all season. They continue to be so as a 3-point home underdog to the Golden State Warriors tonight. I'll take the points in a game I believe they are going to win outright.
The Warriors are in their biggest letdown spot of the season. They are coming off a 123-114 road win at defending champion Miami last night in which everything went right. They shot 56.1% from the field and it just seemed like they could not miss.
It's only human nature for a team like the Warriors to have a letdown off such a big win. Plus, they will now be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile, Atlanta comes in on two days' rest and will be ready to go.
Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Hawks are 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS at home this season. Golden State is 27-55 ATS in its last 82 road games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of last game. Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Western Conference foes. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series. Take the Hawks Friday.
|01-03-14||Toronto Raptors v. Washington Wizards UNDER 193.5||Top||101-88||Win||100||7 h 12 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 193.5
The Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards will take part in a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. Both of these teams like to play at below-average tempos, and their recent meetings have been low scoring.
Toronto ranks 21st in the league in pace at 95.4 possessions per game, while Washington is 23rd at 95.3 possessions per game. Toronto ranks 15th in the league in offensive efficiency with 102.4 points per 100 possessions, and Washington is 21st in that category at 101.1 points per 100 possessions.
What gets overlooked with both of these teams is how solid they have been defensively this year. Toronto ranks 8th in defensive efficiency, giving up just 100.3 points per 100 possessions. Washington is in the top half of the league in that category, ranking 14th at 102.7 points per 100 possessions allowed.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series. These teams have combined for 191 or fewer points in five of the last meetings. That includes a 96-88 road win by Toronto for 184 combined points in their first meetings of 2013-14 on November 22. The UNDER is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-02-14||Oklahoma v. Alabama UNDER 52||Top||45-31||Loss||-105||10 h 8 m||Show|
20* Oklahoma/Alabama Sugar Bowl Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 52
I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between the Oklahoma Sooners and Alabama Crimson Tide. These are two of the better defensive teams in the country and that will be on display tonight in the Sugar Bowl.
Alabama is giving up just 11.3 points and 274.7 yards per game to rank 4th in the country in total defense. Oklahoma is yielding 21.3 points and 336.3 yards per game to rank 14th in total defense.
Both teams rely heavily on the run, which will keep the clock moving. I have a hard time seeing Oklahoma doing much offensively against an Alabama defense that is yielding just 108 yards per game on the ground and 3.4 per carry.
Plays on the UNDER on neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OKLAHOMA) - in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 80%), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 46-14 (76.7%) since 1992.
Alabama is 26-11 to the UNDER in its last 37 games versus good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game. The Crimson Tide are 34-14 to the UNDER in their last 48 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. The UNDER is 4-0 in Sooners last four vs. SEC opponents. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|01-02-14||Washington +11 v. Arizona St||76-65||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +11
The Washington Huskies are showing tremendous value as a double-digit road underdog to Arizona State in their Pac-12 opener Thursday. I'll take advantage and snag all the points I can get in this one.
Washington comes in undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in three straight games heading into this contest. Arizona State is overvalued due to covering the spread in three straight coming in.
This has been a one-sided series in recent years to say the least. Indeed, Washington is a perfect 7-0 in its last seven meetings with Arizona State. That makes it mind-boggling that the books have made the Huskies a double-digit underdog when they simply dominate this series.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (WASHINGTON) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's) are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Huskies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Washington is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings at Arizona State. The road team is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Roll with Washington Thursday.
|01-02-14||Brooklyn Nets +12.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||95-93||Win||100||9 h 41 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets +12.5
There's no denying that the Brooklyn Nets have been the most disappointing team in the NBA up to this point. As a result, there's going to be some value in backing this team going forward. I believe that's the case tonight as a 12-point underdog to Oklahoma City.
The reason the Nets are being undervalued here is because they are coming off back-to-back blowout road losses to Indiana (91-105) and San Antonio (92-113). While those two teams are two of the best in the league, the Thunder in their current state are not.
Oklahoma City is without Russell Westbrook likely for the rest of the season due to another knee injury. This team is not the same without him, and just like it struggled in the playoffs last year, it will really struggle the rest of the way to find points.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (BROOKLYN) - off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 71-34 (67.6%) ATS since 1996.
Brooklyn is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 road games when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days. The Nets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. The Thunder are 1-9 ATS after a game with 15 or less assists over the last two years. Take the Nets Thursday.
|01-01-14||Indiana Pacers v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 193||82-95||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pacers/Raptors UNDER 193
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and Toronto Raptors. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between two of the better teams in the league defensively.
The key here is that both teams play at a slow tempo. Toronto ranks 22nd in the league in pace at 95.2 possessions per game. Indiana is just behind them, ranking 23rd in the league in pace at 95.2 possessions per game. Both teams are right in the middle of the pack in offensive efficiency (Indiana 13th, Toronto 15th) as well.
As stated before, both teams get after it defensively. Indiana ranks 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 93.2 points per 100 possessions. Toronto is a surprising 9th in this category, yielding 100.9 points per 100 possessions.
This has been a very low-scoring series of late. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 175, 174, 198, 146 and 178 points. Plus, that 198-point effort was tied 90-90 at the end of regulation for 180 combined points before overtime.
So, if you only count regulation, the Pacers and Raptors are combining for an average of 170.6 points per game in their last five meetings. That's over 22 points less than tonight's posted total of 193. As you can see, there's a ton of value with this UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|01-01-14||Michigan State +7 v. Stanford||Top||24-20||Win||100||22 h 32 m||Show|
20* Michigan State/Stanford Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Michigan State +7
The Michigan State Spartans have been disrespected all season. They are legitimately a couple blown calls by the refs in a loss to Notre Dame away from being undefeated and playing in the BCS Championship.
I believe the Spartans should be the favorite in the Rose Bowl against Stanford. They will be all jacked up to prove their doubters wrong once again, especially when you consider that they have not been to the Rose Bowl in 26 years.
"It's going to be a special moment when we walk out on that field," head coach Mark Dantonio said. "When you set down and write down your goals and think about the goals in whatever job that you take or occupation, you're going to have some different things that you want to try to accomplish. That was one of the things we were trying to accomplish."
Michigan State is winning behind a defense that ranks 1st in the nation at 248.2 yards per game allowed, including an FBS-low 80.8 rushing. Stanford relies heavily on its running game to move the football, so having that type of run defense will be crucial in this game.
The Spartans don't get a lot of credit for how their offense performed this season, but they still managed 29.8 yards per game and have been revived since a switch at quarterback. Connor Cook threw for 304 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-24 win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship to earn MVP honors.
Running back Jeremy Langford has rushed for 1,338 yards and 17 touchdowns this season. He has amassed 104 or more rushing yards in eight straight games, which is largely due to the improved play of Cook, making this offense no longer one-dimensional.
Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. The Spartans are 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better this season. Michigan State is 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game this season. The Spartans are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games off two straight conference games. Michigan State is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games. These five trends combine for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Spartans. Take Michigan State Wednesday.
|01-01-14||Boston College +9.5 v. Harvard||58-73||Loss||-110||6 h 35 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +9.5
The Boston College Eagles are way undervalued due to their poor start. They returned all five starters and 96 percent of their scoring from last season, so I have no doubt that this team is better than it has shown thus far.
The reason the Eagles are undervalued here is because they have failed to cover the spread in five straight games coming in, while Harvard has covered in four straight leading up to this one. As a result, the public is on Harvard and off of Boston College.
Boston College is 97-64 ATS in its last 161 road games overall, including 36-19 ATS in its last 45 January road games. The Eagles are 71-43 ATS in their last 114 after having lost two of their last three games coming in. Harvard is 17-35 ATS in its last 52 games after allowing 80 points or more in its last game. Take Boston College Wednesday.
|01-01-14||Wisconsin -1 v. South Carolina||24-34||Loss||-110||18 h 47 m||Show|
15* Wisconsin/South Carolina Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -1
The Wisconsin Badgers suffered three losses this season by a touchdown or less to some very good teams. They should have beaten Arizona State, but had that game stolen away from them by the referees. They also played Ohio State very tough inside the shoe and could have won that game, falling by a touchdown. Sure, the loss to Penn State to close out the season is concerning, but it will only have head coach Gary Anderson and his team more determined to make amends and close out the season on a positive note.
The numbers show that the Badgers have been one of the best teams in all of college football this season. They are putting up 35.7 points and 486.7 yards per game to rank 19th in the country in total offense. They boast a rushing attack that is putting up 283 yards per game and 6.6 per carry, and one that cannot be stopped. Both Melvin Gordon (1,466 yards, 12 TD, 8.1/carry) and James White (1,337 yards, 13 TD, 6.4/carry) have topped the 1,000-yard mark this season. Joel Stave has made the plays when he has needed to at quarterback as well.
What gets overlooked is a Wisconsin defense that is only giving up 14.8 points and 294.4 yards per game to rank 6th in the country in total defense. If not for the dominant Michigan State defense, this would have been the best stop unit in the Big Ten this season. As you can see, they are outgaining their opponents by a whopping 192.3 yards per game on the season, which is one of the best marks in the land.
The Gamecocks have a solid defense as well, but they have been relying on turnovers all season. They forced a combined 11 turnovers in wins over Clemson and Mississippi State in games they probably should have lost. Wisconsin only turns it over 1.2 times per game, so it won
|01-01-14||Iowa +8 v. LSU||Top||14-21||Win||100||18 h 47 m||Show|
25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +8
The Iowa Hawkeyes represent my strongest bowl release for the entire 2013-14 postseason. I look for them to not only give LSU a run for their money in the Outback Bowl, but to likely win outright as well.
Iowa was arguably the best eight-win team in the country this season. Its four losses came against the likes of Northern Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin, who are all ranked in the Top 25. It had a chance to win the game in the fourth quarter in every one of those contests, not once getting blown out from start to finish.
This isn't the same dominant LSU team we have become accustomed to in years' past. That could not have been more evident in the season finale as the Tigers needed to drive 99 yards for a game-winning touchdown to beat Arkansas (0-8 in SEC) by a final of 31-27 at home despite being a 28-point favorite.
Anthony Jennings led that 99-yard drive against Arkansas due to a season-ending injury to Zach Mettenberger earlier in the game. I believe he is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers because of that one drive. The loss of Mettenberger is absolutely huge, but I don't believe it's being reflected in this line at all.
Iowa plays a very similar style to LSU which makes this a good match-up. Both teams like to pound the rock with their running game, and each is pretty solid defensively, though Iowa has been the superior team on that side of the ball. LSU had the edge offensively before the injury to Mettenberger, and now I believe there is no edge there whatsoever. Jennings has thrown just 10 passes all season.
The Hawkeyes were improved offensively this year which was the biggest reason for their turnaround. They scored a respectable 27.3 points per game this season. They only gave up 18.7 points and 303.2 yards per game to rank 7th in the country in total defense. The key is their run defense, which ranks 16th at 120.8 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry allowed.
These teams met in the 2005 Capital One Bowl with the Hawkeyes beating the Tigers 30-25. They held them to just 118 rushing yards in the win, and they have the kind of run D that is going to take away LSU's strength again, which is its rushing offense now that Mettenberger is down.
Kirk Ferentz is 28-9 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of Iowa. Iowa is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games vs. good offensive teams that average 37 or more points per game. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games. The Tigers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win. Bet Iowa in the Outback Bowl Wednesday.
|01-01-14||Nebraska +9 v. Georgia||24-19||Win||100||17 h 47 m||Show|
15* Nebraska/Georgia Gator Bowl Rematch on Nebraska +9
It has to be deflating for Georgia players to be playing in the Gator Bowl as they came into the season with aspirations of winning a BCS Championship. Those hopes have been crushed due to injuries and poor play as the Bulldogs have lost four games this year after nearly beating Alabama in the SEC Title game last year. Their reward? How about a rematch with a team that they beat by 14 in the exact same bowl game last year. Georgia cannot be excited one bit to play Nebraska in the Gator Bowl again.
Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers will come into this game the more motivated team wanting revenge from last year
|12-31-13||Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||94-79||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
15* Bucks/Lakers New Year's Eve BAILOUT on Milwaukee +6.5
I faded the Los Angeles Lakers as an 8-point favorite over the Philadelphia 76ers last time out with success. I still believe they are overvalued tonight as a 6.5-point favorite against the Milwaukee Bucks, and I'll fade them again as a result.
Los Angeles already had a pretty poor roster before all of the injuries started happening. Now, it is without four key players in Kobe Bryant, Steve Blake, Steve Nash and Xavier Henry. Plus, Pau Gasol and Jordan Farmar are battling nagging injuries. This Lakers' team in its current state is no better than Milwaukee.
The Bucks are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Milwaukee has won three of its last four meetings with the Lakers. The Bucks are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The underdog is 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Roll with the Bucks Tuesday.
|12-31-13||Portland Trail Blazers v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 213.5||98-94||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Thunder UNDER 213.5
The books have set the bar too high in this game between two of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Portland Trail Blazers (24-7) and Oklahoma City Thunder (25-5). When two good teams like this get together, it usually brings out the best in both defensively.
The biggest reason this line has been inflated is that Portland has gone over the total in nine straight and 15 of its last 16 games overall. The books have been forced to set a higher total than they know they should simply because the betting public catches on to these trends and backs the over blindly.
Compared to tonight's total, this has been a pretty low-scoring series. In fact, six of the last seven meetings between the Thunder and Blazers have seen 206 or fewer combined points. If you don't count overtime, then 10 of the last 11 meetings have seen 206 or fewer combined points. The UNDER is 18-6-2 in the last 26 meetings in Oklahoma City.
Playing at home, I look for Oklahoma City to control the tempo. With Russell Westbrook lost with another knee injury, the Thunder do not want to try and run with Portland, or they will get beat. Look for them to make this a half-court game and to rely on their solid defense to get the win.
Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PORTLAND) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 85-42 (66.9%) since 1996. The UNDER is 19-7-2 in Thunder last 28 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 26-11-2 in Thunder last 39 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|12-31-13||Duke v. Texas A&M -11.5||Top||48-52||Loss||-108||22 h 17 m||Show|
20* Duke/Texas A&M Chick-fil-A Bowl BAILOUT on Texas A&M -11.5
The Duke Blue Devils were a tremendous story this season. David Cutcliffe won Coach of the Year due to leading the Blue Devils to their first 10-win season in school history. While it was a nice story, the result is that Duke is overvalued heading into this bowl game with Texas A&M.
I would certainly make the argument that Duke did not have many good wins this season as its 10 victories came against NC Central, Memphis, Troy, Navy, Virginia, Virginia Tech, NC State, Miami, Wake Forest and North Carolina. It was very fortunate to win many of those games, too, as four came by a touchdown or less.
Duke's true colors shows in a 7-45 loss to Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. I believe a similar beat down is in store at the hands of Texas A&M this week. No matter what happens for the Blue Devils, this will be considered their best season in school history. They will find it hard to be motivated because of it, and even if they are, they're way out-classed in this one talent-wise.
Texas A&M played the 29th-toughest schedule in the country this season with its only losses coming to current No. 2 Auburn, No. 3 Alabama, No. 8 Missouri and No. 16 LSU. Duke played the 62nd-toughest schedule in the country this year to compare. The fact of the matter is that Duke is one of the easiest opponents that Texas A&M will have faced all year.
Johnny Manziel wants to go out a winner in likely the final college football game of his career. Quietly, Manziel had another monster season this year, completing 69.1 percent of his passes for 3,732 yards with 33 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, while also rushing for 675 yards and eight scores.
Manziel leads a Texas A&M offense that ranks 4th in the country at 538.2 yards per game. This is an offense that put up 42 points against Alabama, and one that will put up a big number against a Duke defense that ranks 70th in the country at 408.5 yards per game. I don't believe the Blue Devils have anywhere near the firepower to keep up. They rank just 67th in total offense at 408.1 yards per game. As you can see, they are actually getting outgained on the season and managed to win 10 games. Something does not add up.
Duke is 0-6 ATS in road games versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.25 or more yards per play over the past three seasons. The Blue Devils are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games after covering the spread in four of their last five games coming in. The Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. It's also worth noting that Duke has suspended leading rusher Jela Duncan (562 yards, 3 TD) heading into this bowl game. Bet Texas A&M in the Chick-fil-A Bowl Tuesday.
|12-31-13||Northern Illinois +23.5 v. Iowa State||63-99||Loss||-104||8 h 45 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Northern Illinois +23.5
The Northern Illinois Huskies are showing tremendous value as a massive road underdog to the Iowa State Cyclones. They will be up for this game to try and knock off one of the top-ranked teams in the country.
The same cannot be said for Iowa State, which is coming off a huge tournament win in Hawaii. Now, Iowa State has its Big 12 opener on deck Saturday against Texas Tech, and it will be looking ahead to that game. I simply do not see the Cyclones being motivated enough tonight to cover this massive spread.
I've liked what I've seen so far from Northern Illinois, which returned four starters from last year and is 5-5 on the season. Four of its five losses have come by 13 points or less, including three by five points or fewer. The only exception was a 54-80 road loss to a very good UMass team as a 20.5-point dog. The Huskies have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, which is impressive when you consider they were an underdog in each.
Northern Illinois is 8-1 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. The Huskies are 11-1 ATS in road games after a game with 9 or less assists over the last 2 seasons. Northern Illinois is 57-37 ATS in its last 94 games as a road dog of 10 or more points. Take Northern Illinois Tuesday.
|12-31-13||Mississippi State -7 v. Rice||44-7||Win||100||18 h 35 m||Show|
15* Mississippi State/Rice Liberty Bowl Line Mistake on Mississippi State -7
I'll take the SEC over Conference USA any day of the week, especially when the SEC has to lay a touchdown or less. I look for this to be an absolute blowout as Mississippi State rolls to a double-digit victory over Rice.
I really like the Bulldogs' mindset heading into this one as well. They had to win their final two games of the season against Arkansas and Ole Miss to become bowl eligible, so they were clearly fighting hard for that honor. You can bet they will not squander it, either.
Rice has had a great season no matter what happens in this bowl game. It won the Conference USA Championship with a 41-24 victory over Marshall to close out the season. Sure, it wants to win this game, but its season is already made. There's no doubt that Mississippi State wants this victory to finish with a winning record.
One of the biggest reasons I like the Bulldogs to roll is that quarterback is recovered from a nerve injury in his non-throwing arm suffered late in the season. He was forced to sit out two games before returning in the second half against Ole Miss to lead the team to victory. This guy is one of the most underrated players in the country, finishing 11th in the SEC with 751 rushing yards, which put him second among SEC quarterbacks ahead of Johnny Manziel.
These teams have a common opponent in Texas A&M. Mississippi State only lost by a final of 41-51 at Texas A&M, while Rice lost 31-52 at Texas A&M. The difference was that Manziel was actually suspended for the first half of the Rice game, so he didn't play until after intermission. The Bulldogs had to face Manziel for a full four quarters.
Speaking of schedule, the Bulldogs played a much tougher slate than the Owls, which will make a huge difference in this one as well. Mississippi State played the eight-toughest schedule in the country, while Rice played just the 104th-toughest. The Bulldogs didn't have one bad loss as their six came to Oklahoma State, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M & Alabama. You'll find all six of those teams currently ranked in the Top 21.
Rice is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games. The Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl Tuesday.
|12-31-13||Virginia Tech +7.5 v. UCLA||12-42||Loss||-105||16 h 17 m||Show|
15* VA Tech/UCLA Sun Bowl No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +7.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies were closer to being a 12-0 football team than most might realize. Three of their four losses came by a combined 13 points, while the other came to then-No. 1 Alabama by a final of 10-35 in a game that was much closer than the score would indicate. The Hokies held the Crimson Tide to just 206 total yards in the loss, but gave up three non-offensive touchdowns.
Virginia Tech clearly has one of the best defenses in all of college football. In fact, it ranks 4th in the country in total defense at 269.6 yards per game allowed. The Hokies also gave up a mere 17.4 points per game. I believe their defense will keep them in this game against UCLA, which ranks 54th in total defense at 391.5 yards per game.
UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley has been sacked 33 times. Virginia Tech leads the ACC in sacks (37) while ranking among the nation's top 10 against the rush (103.8 yards/game), the pass (168.5 yards/game) and in interceptions (19). The Bruins, meanwhile, gave up an average of 193.6 rushing yards per game over their final seven games.
The Bruins are 3-12 ATS in thier last 15 road games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. UCLA is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 road games following a bye of at least one week. The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in December. The Bruins are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Roll with Virginia Tech in the Sun Bowl Tuesday.
|12-31-13||Boston College +7.5 v. Arizona||Top||19-42||Loss||-115||15 h 57 m||Show|
20* Boston College/Arizona AdvoCare Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston College +7.5
The Boston College Eagles were one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. I look for that to show once again in their bowl game against the Arizona Wildcats on Tuesday, December 31.
Boston College managed to win seven games this year when it was only projected to win 4.5 coming into the season. While those seven wins were solid, I was actually more impressed with what I saw from the Eagles in two losses this season than anything.
They played Florida State tougher than anyone this year, losing by afinal of 34-48 as a 24-point underdog. They put up 407 total yards in the loss, including 210 on the ground to prove that they can run against anyone. They also lost 14-24 at Clemson as a 24-point underdog.
Arizona is getting too much respect for its win over Oregon at the end of the year. That Ducks team quit down the stretch, so instead of getting respect for that win, the Wildcats should be getting a lot less respect for losing three of their final four games. Two of those came at home, while the other was a 21-58 beat down at the hands of Arizona State.
Both teams love to run the football, which makes stopping the run huge. Boston College averages 219 yards per game and 5.5 per carry on the ground, while Arizona averages 266 yards per game and 5.3 per carry. Well, the Eagles only allow 154 yards per game and 3.9 per carry, while the Wildcats allow 170 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.
Arizona is 0-6 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse over the last two seasons. Boston College is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games after three consecutive games where it forced one or less turnovers. Arizona is 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record, and 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Take Boston College in the AdvoCare V100 Bowl Tuesday.
|12-30-13||Texas Tech +14.5 v. Arizona State||Top||37-23||Win||100||100 h 52 m||Show|
25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech +14.5
The Texas Tech Red Raiders represent my strongest bowl release of all prior to January 1st. I absolutely love this team catching two touchdowns against Arizona State, and I believe they not only have an excellent chance to cover the spread, but to win outright as well.
Texas Tech wants to be here after a seven-win season in head coach Kliff Kingsbury's first year on the job. This team played very well in the first half of the season before a brutal schedule and costly turnovers did them in down the stretch. As a result, they come into this season way undervalued due to their finish.
Arizona State does not want to be here. It was beaten 14-38 by Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 7. So, instead of going to the Rose Bowl, the Sun Devils have to settle for the Holiday Bowl. There is absolutely no chance they get up for this game, and as a result they are very vulnerable despite the clear edge they have in talent on the field.
UCLA was in the same position last year. It had just lost to Stanford 24-27 in the Pac-12 Championship Game to miss out on the Rose Bowl. What did the Bruins do in the Holiday Bowl? How about get blown out 26-49 by Baylor despite being a 3-point favorite in that contest. They weren't motivated for that game, and neither will Arizona State be.
The numbers show that Texas Tech is an elite team. It is outgaining opponents by an average of 93.7 yards per game on the season thanks to an offense that ranks 10th in the country at 512.9 yards per game, including 2nd in passing at 392.0 yards per game.
Plays on any team (TEXAS TECH) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS since 1992. The Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games. The Red Raiders are 27-11-3 ATS in their last 41 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet Texas Tech Monday.
|12-30-13||Washington Wizards v. Detroit Pistons -2.5||106-99||Loss||-109||8 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2.5
This is a classic home-and-home situation. These teams just played two nights go with Washington rolling to a 106-82 home victory. I look for Detroit to return the favor and get revenge in blowout fashion at home this time around.
The Pistons will be very hungry for a victory after losing four of their last five coming in. You have to like their chances of bouncing back considering they are a sensational 26-7 at home against Washington since 1996.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Detroit is 20-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the past two seasons. The Wizards are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Pistons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Washington. Bet the Pistons Monday.
|12-30-13||Virginia v. Tennessee -2||52-87||Win||100||7 h 8 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee -2
The Tennessee Volunteers are showing tremendous value as only a 2-point home favorite over Virginia Monday. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Vols, who will be hungry after losing two of their past three games coming in.
Tennessee has played its best basketball at home this season. It is 5-1 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.2 points per game. Virginia has only played one true road game all year, which was a 72-75 loss at Wisconsin-Green Bay.
Virginia is 16-32 ATS in its last 48 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Tennessee is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 home games with a line of +3 to -3. The Cavaliers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Virginia is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 road games. Take Tennessee Monday.
|12-30-13||Texas +14 v. Oregon||7-30||Loss||-110||95 h 22 m||Show|
15* Texas/Oregon Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on Texas +14
This is a classing 'Win one for the Gipper' game. While there's no question that Oregon is the supremely talented team, I believe Texas' will to win for Mack Brown will be the reason it easily covers this two-touchdown spread and possibly wins outright.
Brown will resign after 16 seasons in Austin as this will be the final game of his coaching career. He has a National Championship under his belt, and while this season didn't go exactly as planned, the Longhorns still had a chance to win the Big 12 in the final week of the season.
"The standard is really high here," said the 62-year-old Brown, whose 158 victories at Texas rank behind only the late Darrell Royal's 167. "We set a standard at this place. You'd better win all of them. I understand that. ... The standard is really high here and I'm proud of being part of setting that standard."
While Texas will continue to fight to the finish for Brown, Oregon packed it in a long time ago. After its loss to Stanford that killed its BCS Championship hopes, it has simply refused to give good effort. The Ducks would go 0-4 ATS over their final four games of the season, which included a 16-42 loss at Arizona.
This team is still good enough to win when it just goes through the motions, which was evidenced in a 36-35 home victory over Oregon State as a 24-point favorite to close out the season. However, the Ducks are not good enough to beat Texas by two touchdowns just going through the motions. With the way that they finished out the season, the Ducks will not be showing up in the Alamo Bowl, either.
Brown is 8-1 ATS in road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival as the coach of Texas. Brown is 16-4 ATS after a game where his team forced no turnovers as the coach of Texas. The Longhorns are a perfect 6-0 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest over the last three years. Roll with Texas Monday.
|12-30-13||Ole Miss -3 v. Georgia Tech||Top||25-17||Win||100||92 h 52 m||Show|
20* Ole Miss/GA Tech Music City Bowl No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -3
The Ole Miss Rebels from the SEC should be a much bigger favorite over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets from the ACC. These were two middle-of-the-pack teams in their respective conferences, and there's no question that the SEC was far and away the superior conference.
Ole Miss faced a similar situation in last year's bowl game. It was only a 3-point favorite over Pittsburgh in the Compass Bowl, yet prevailed in blowout fashion by a final of 38-17. I was all over the Rebels in that game, and I'm on them again for many of the same reasons.
First and foremost. the Rebels underachieved this year because they had a whopping 19 starters back from last year's team. However, what hurt them most was a brutal schedule. They played the 10th-toughest schedule in the country, while Georgia Tech played the 42nd-toughest.
Ole Miss still managed to win seven games this year, including a 27-24 victory over LSU, as well as road wins over Vanderbilt (39-35) and Texas (44-23). However, it was not very lucky in some close games against good competition. It lost to Auburn (22-30), Texas A&M (38-41) and Mississippi State (10-17) all by a touchdown or less.
I look at Georgia Tech's schedule and I don't see one good won. It's seven victories came against Elon, Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Virginia, Pitt and Alabama A&M. It lost all of its tough games, including blowout losses to Miami (30-45), BYU (20-38) and Clemson (31-55). In fact, Georgia Tech is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Triple-option teams like Georgia Tech are at a huge disadvantage in bowl games. That's because teams have nearly a month to prepare to defend the triple-option, which is a tough system to defend if you only have a week to do so. It's an easy system to defend when you get a month, and Ole Miss will be ready for it.
Ole Miss is 35-19 ATS in its last 54 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rebels are 7-0 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. at team with a winning record as stated before. Georgia Tech is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in. Ole Miss is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four bowl games. These last four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Rebels. Take Ole Miss Monday.
|12-29-13||Philadelphia 76ers +8 v. Los Angeles Lakers||111-104||Win||100||11 h 49 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +8
The Los Angeles Lakers should never be an 8-point favorite against any team in the league with Kobe Bryant out. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Philadelphia 76ers as an 8-point underdog to the Lakers tonight.
The Lakers are 27-49 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons. Los Angeles is 4-13 ATS after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the past 2 seasons. The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Los Angeles. The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet the 76ers Sunday.
|12-29-13||St. Louis Rams v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 43||9-27||Win||100||47 h 26 m||Show|
15* Rams/Seahawks NFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 43
The books have been forced to set the totals in the NFL much higher than they are comfortable with late in the season due to the OVERS cashing in so frequently up to Week 16. However, UNDER bettors really rolled in Week 16 due to the value as 11 of 16 games went UNDER the total. I believe there are many more inflated totals in Week 17, and this is one of them.
These are two of the better defensive teams in the league. Seattle ranks 1st in total defense at 280.7 yards per game and 2nd in scoring defense at 14.8 points per game. St. Louis is a respectable 17th in total defense at 350.1 yards per game. The Rams have the NFL's best run defense since Week 10, allowing just 68.0 yards per game over the past six games.
I look for this game to follow a similar path to the first meeting between these teams in which Seattle won by a final of 14-9 in St. Louis. The Seahawks had not business winning that game as they were outgained 135-339 for the game, but took advantage of two turnovers to win an absolute defensive battle.
This has been a very low-scoring series throughout the years. Seven straight and nine of the last 10 meetings in this series have seen 43 or less combined points. The Rams and Seahawks have combined to average just 32.2 points per game in their last 10 meetings, which is 10.8 points less per game than today's posted total of 43. As you can see, there is a ton of value with the UNDER given the low-scoring nature of this series.
The UNDER is 21-7 in Rams last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 17-8-1 in Rams last 26 road games overall. The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Rams last 26 December games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Seahawks last five December games. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in this series. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|12-29-13||San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals +1||Top||23-20||Loss||-110||47 h 46 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +1
You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing better than the Arizona Cardinals in the second half of the season. Indeed, the Cardinals have won seven of their last eight games overall with their only loss coming at red-hot Philadelphia by a final of 21-24 as a 3.5-point underdog. That loss is starting to look more and more acceptable as the Eagles are one of the only teams that can rival how well Arizona has played down the stretch.
In a must-win situation at Seattle last week, Arizona rose to the occasion and beat the Seahawks 17-10 as an 8-point underdog to put an end to their perfect 14-0 home record over the past two seasons. They outgained the Seahawks 307-192 for the game and managed to win despite turning the ball over four times. That
|12-29-13||Carolina Panthers v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 46||Top||21-20||Win||100||44 h 1 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Panthers/Falcons UNDER 46
The books have been forced to set the totals in the NFL much higher than they are comfortable with late in the season due to the OVERS cashing in so frequently up to Week 16. However, UNDER bettors really rolled in Week 16 due to the value as 11 of 16 games went UNDER the total. I believe there are many more inflated totals in Week 17, and this is my favorite of the bunch.
I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between Carolina and Atlanta Sunday. Both teams have something to play for here as the Panthers have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed, and would clinch a first-round bye with a win. Atlanta wants to send out Tony Gonzalez with one last victory in the final game of his career.
Carolina ranks 1st in the league in scoring defense at 14.7 points per game, and 2nd in total defense at 300.9 yards per game. It limited a high-powered New Orleans offense to just 13 points in a huge 17-13 win last week that put it in position to win the NFC South and a first-round bye.
Atlanta hasn't played that great defensively this season, but I like its chances of being successful this week on that side of the ball. The Panthers rank just 25th in the league in total offense at 319.1 yards per game. Now, they are expected to be without leading wide receiver Steve Smith (64 receptions, 745 yards, 4 TD) due to a knee injury. For an offense that was already lacking weapons, this is a huge blow.
These teams combined for 44 points in their first meeting of the season as the Panthers won 34-10 at home, outgaining the Falcons 373-289 in the process. I look for a much better effort from the Falcons defensively this time around given the circumstances, and I sill expect the Panthers to hold Atlanta in check again.
Carolina is 40-14 to the UNDER off a win over a division rival since 1992. The Panthers are 7-1 to the UNDER in their last eight games overall. Carolina is 7-0 to the UNDER in its last seven games following a win. Atlanta is 6-1 to the UNDER after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in its previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|12-29-13||Jacksonville Jaguars +11 v. Indianapolis Colts||10-30||Loss||-110||44 h 1 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Jacksonville Jaguars +11
The Jacksonville Jaguars clearly have not quit on their season and are not worried about draft picks. These players continue to play out the string for head coach Gus Bradley, which will probably save his job going into next year. They have won four of their last seven games overall while going 5-2 against the spread in the process. Their two non-covers during this stretch came by exactly three points. Two of their three losses came by a touchdown or less, so they have been very competitive in the second half.
Indianapolis just has a way of playing to the level of its competition. When you look at its numbers, it
|12-29-13||Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 45||17-34||Loss||-110||44 h 1 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Bengals AFC North No-Brainer on UNDER 45
The books have been forced to set the totals in the NFL much higher than they are comfortable with late in the season due to the OVERS cashing in so frequently up to Week 16. However, UNDER bettors really rolled in Week 16 due to the value as 11 of 16 games went UNDER the total. I believe there are many more inflated totals in Week 17, and this is one of them.
There is a lot at stake in this AFC North rivalry between Baltimore and Cincinnati to close out the season. The Ravens are playing just to get into the playoffs, while the Bengals are playing for playoff positioning. They could move up to the No. 2 seed if everything goes right, but they could also drop to the No. 4 seed with a loss, which would mean they'd have a tough first-round match-up with Kansas City. It's safe to say that both teams will be laying it all on the line given the circumstances.
These are two of the best defensive teams in the league squaring off Sunday. Cincinnati ranks 5th in the league in total defense at 311.1 yards per game, while Baltimore is 9th at 331.7 yards per game. The Ravens, who rank 29th in total offense at 313.1 yards per game, will have a hard time moving the football and putting up points against a Bengals' defense that is allowing just 16.7 points per game at home this year.
This has been a very low-scoring series to say the least. Ten of the last 12 meetings in this series have seen 40 or fewer combined points. Only two of those 12 games exceeded this total of 45 points. Baltimore beat Cincinnati 20-17 in overtime in their first meeting of the season on November 10. The Ravens won despite only gaining 189 total yards in the game.
The UNDER is 17-3-1 in Bengals last 21 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The UNDER is 22-9 in Bengals last 31 December games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Raven's last 10 vs. AFC North foes. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|12-28-13||Detroit Pistons v. Washington Wizards -2||82-106||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -2
The Washington Wizards were blown out by the Minnesota Timberwolves last night. As a result, they are way undervalued as only a 2-point home favorite tonight over the Detroit Pistons. I'll take advantage of this value tonight.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Detroit is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Washington is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. The Wizards are 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Wizards Saturday.
|12-28-13||Brooklyn Nets v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 194||91-105||Loss||-107||8 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Pacers UNDER 194
Indiana likes to play a half-court game, and it will control the tempo at home. The Pacers rank 20th in the league in pace at 95.4 possessions per game. The Nets like to play at a slow tempo as well, ranking 25th in pace at 94.6 possessions per game.
Indiana ranks 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 93.4 points per 100 possessions. The Nets are in a world of hurt right now without their two best post scorers in Brook Lopez and Andray Blatche. They are forced to play defensive-minded Reggie Evans a ton of minutes because of it.
The UNDER is 12-3 in Pacers last 15 home games. The UNDER is 8-1 in Pacers last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The UNDER is 18-8-1 in Pacers last 27 vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-28-13||Louisville v. Kentucky +2.5||66-73||Win||100||5 h 13 m||Show|
15* Louisville/Kentucky CBB Saturday No-Brainer on Kentucky +2.5
This is a classic case where the defending champions are way overvalued. Louisville should not be favored on the road at Kentucky, and I'll gladly take advantage by backing the home dog in this one.
Kentucky is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. It is outrebounding opponents 44-31 on the season and averaging 14 offensive boards in the process. It is also shooting 35 free throws per game.
The Wildcats are 35-17 ATS off three straight games where they outrebounded their opponents by six or more since 1997. Kentucky is 72-48 ATS off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite since 1997. John Calipari has never lost as the coach off Kentucky off a combined score of 155 points or more in two straight games, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in this spot. Roll with Kentucky Saturday.
|12-28-13||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 195.5||100-103||Loss||-110||2 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cavaliers/Celtics UNDER 195.5
The bar has been set too high in this game between Cleveland and Boston Saturday. This is going to be a low-scoring game and I'll back the UNDER because of it.
This line has been jacked up because the Cavs have gone over the total in seven of their last eight games overall. They are coming off a double-overtime game, which has created a ton of value on the UNDER toady.
Boston is 15-5 UNDER (+9.5 Units) in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is 26-11 UNDER (+13.9 Units) after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games since 1996. Boston is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-28-13||Rutgers +14 v. Notre Dame||Top||16-29||Win||101||41 h 56 m||Show|
20* Rutgers/Notre Dame Pinstripe Bowl No-Brainer on Rutgers +14
There's no denying that the Rutgers Scarlet Knights struggled in the second half of the season. However, those struggles have them way undervalued as they head into the Pinstripe Bowl against Notre Dame as a two-touchdown underdog.
This team could have packed it in, but they showed they wanted to go to a bowl game by winning their final game of the season in dominant fashion. They beat South Florida 31-6 as a 4-point home favorite to get their elusive sixth win to earn a trip to this bowl game. They held the Bulls to just 151 total yards in the triumph.
"We came out today and it was do or die," said running back Paul James, who rushed for 113 yards and two touchdowns. "We were fighting to get to that bowl game. Now that we are there everyone is excited and happy to get there."
Notre Dame, which went to the BCS Championship Game last year, cannot be excited to be going to the Pinstripe Bowl this season. Sure, the Fighting Irish have a decent fan base in New York, but the proximity of Rutgers to Yankee Stadium should have the Scarlet Knights with a slight home-field advantage.
This is a classic 'who wants to be there more' game. Rutgers clearly wants to be here after the way it finished out the season with a win over South Florida, and with an opportunity to go up against a big program like Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish do not want to be here at all and feel like they deserve a better both after an eight-win season.
Plays on any team (RUTGERS) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS since 1992. Rutgers is 23-9 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992.
Notre Dame is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after covering the spread in five or six of its last seven games. The Scarlet Knights are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven bowl games. Rutgers is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games vs. Independent teams. Notre Dame is 2-5 ATS in its last seven bowl games. Bet Rutgers Saturday.
|12-27-13||Washington v. BYU +3.5||Top||31-16||Loss||-110||28 h 49 m||Show|
20* Washington/BYU Fight Hunger Bowl BAILOUT on BYU +3.5
The BYU Cougars played a very respectable schedule this season and managed to get through it at 8-4. They were in every game that they played as all four of their losses came by 10 points or less, including setbacks on the road to both Wisconsin and Notre Dame.
Bronco Mendenhall has gone 6-2 in bowl games as the coach of BYU with four straight victories coming in after last season's 23-6 triumph over San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl. He'll have his players ready to go in the Fight Hunger Bowl Friday.
The same cannot be said for Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian, who bolted for the USC job. Replacing him will be interim head coach Marques Tuiasosopo, and this will be a major distraction for the team. The players who are coming back will be going through a mix of emotions as they await the arrival of new head coach Chris Peterson next year.
I've been very impressed with the offense of BYU, which is averaging 495 yards per game and 5.9 per play. Quarterback Taisom Hill does it all, rushing for 1,211 yards and nine touchdowns while also throwing for 2,645 yards and 19 scores. Jamaal Williams is right behind him with 1,202 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 5.9 per carry.
BYU has been solid defensively as well, yielding just 384 yards per game and 4.8 per play. They key to stopping Washington is slowing down its rushing attack, and BYU has the perfect antidote. It is allowing an average of only 3.8 yards per carry this season despite its 12 opponents averaging 4.5 per carry on the year.
The Cougars are a sensational 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. Mendenhall is 17-4 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% as the coach of BYU. Mendenhall is 9-2 ATS in road games versus good rushing teams that average 200 or more yards rushing as the coach of the Cougars. Bet BYU Friday.
|12-27-13||Los Angeles Lakers v. Utah Jazz -3.5||103-105||Loss||-107||10 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Utah Jazz -3.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are getting too much respect from the books as only a 3.5-point road underdog to the Utah Jazz. I realize that the Jazz have the worst record in the West, but they are a better team than the Lakers right now.
Los Angeles is without Kobe Bryant and its top two points guards in Steve Nash and Steve Blake. It is also expected to be without Pau Gasol tonight as he continues to recover from a respiratory infection. The Lakers simply cannot be competitive without these four players.
Utah his finally at full strength and has played its best basketball of the season over the past couple weeks. It has gone a respectable 4-4 in its last eight games overall despite playing seven of those games on the road. The four losses came to San Antonio, Miami, Atlanta and Memphis.
The Jazz have won four of their last five meetings with the Lakers. Los Angeles is 2-14 ATS in road games off a home loss over the last three seasons. After playing defending champion Miami tough at home on Christmas Day, this is clearly a letdown/hangover spot for the Lakers. Take the Jazz Friday.
|12-27-13||Denver Nuggets v. New Orleans Pelicans -2.5||Top||89-105||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5
The New Orleans Pelicans just recently got back their best player in Anthony Davis, who is averaging 19.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game this season. They will be a force to be reckoned with with Davis back in the lineup going forward.
I believe the Pelicans are way undervalued due to losing four of their last five games overall. However, all five of those games were on the road and the four losses came against playoff contenders in the West in Denver, Golden State, LA Clippers & Portland. They capped off the trip with a 113-100 win at Sacramento, and will be looking forward to returning home where they have won their last two.
Denver has lost four in a row coming in to mostly quality competition as well. However, three of its four losses came at home, and three of the setbacks came by 8 points or more. The Nuggets' only win in their last six games came against New Orleans on December 15, with has the Pelicans in revenge mode heading into this rematch.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings overall. The Nuggets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Pelicans are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Bet the Pelicans Friday.
|12-27-13||Louisiana-Monroe +25 v. Ohio State||31-71||Loss||-110||7 h 28 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisiana-Monroe +25
The Ohio State Buckeyes are way overvalued right now due to their perfect 12-0 record and No. 3 ranking. I'll gladly fade them in their final non-conference game before Big Ten play. That makes this a huge lookahead spot for the Buckeyes, who play Purdue on December 31.
I've seen enough from Louisiana-Monroe this season against quality competition to make me believe that the Warhawks can be competitive. They have gone 4-1 ATS in their five lined games while playing some very good teams tough.
They lost 63-80 at Kansas as a 26-point underdog, 54-61 at Ole MIss as a 16.5-point dog, and 62-75 at LSU as a 15.5-point dog. If they can stay within 17 points of those three teams, who are all likely to make the NCAA Tournament, then they can certainly stay within 25 of Ohio State tonight.
Plays against favorites of 10 or more points off 10 or more consecutive wins are a healthy 145-92 (61.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. LA-Monroe is 7-0 ATS in road games off three consecutive non-conference games over the last three seasons. The Warhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games. The Buckeyes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games. Roll with Louisiana-Monroe Friday.
|12-27-13||Marshall v. Maryland +3||31-20||Loss||-120||21 h 49 m||Show|
15* Marshall/Maryland Military Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Maryland +3
The Maryland Terrapins are ecstatic to be going to a bowl game for the first time since 2010. After going a combined 6-18 in Randy Edsall's first two years on the job, the Terrapins rebounded for a 7-5 record this season.
They really had to play well down the stretch just to get in. They were at 5-4 before going 2-1 over their final three games. That included a surprising 27-24 overtime win at Virginia Tech, and a blowout 41-21 victory at NC State to close out the season. Their only loss came to Boston College by a final of 29-26 after the Terps squandered an 11-point fourth quarter lead.
Now, the Terrapins will be jacked up to be playing in this bowl game. They will have a huge home-field advantage as they will be playing just 27 miles from their campus inside the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. There's no way they should be an underdog here given the circumstances.
Marshall had a solid season as well, but it lost in the Conference USA Championship to Rice, which cost it a better bowl game. The Thundering Herd won't be nearly as excited to be playing in this game as Maryland will be.
The Thundering Herd played their worst football on the road this season, going 3-4 SU & 1-5-1 ATS in all games played away from home. Maryland played its best football on the road, going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in six games away from home. The four wins came against VA Tech, NC State, West Virginia & UConn.
I believe teams that played a tougher schedule during the regular season have a much better chance of being successful in the bowl game. I love when these teams are an underdog, too. Maryland played the 69th-toughest schedule in the country, while Marshall played the 126th.
Maryland's offense has been very good when quarterback C.J. Brown has been healthy, and he'll be ready to go for this bowl game. Brown is completing 58.9 percent of his passes for 2,045 yards with 11 touchdowns against six interceptions, while also rushing for 538 yards and 12 scores. The defense has played admirably all season, ranking 31st in the country in total defense at 367.7 yards per game.
The Terrapins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Maryland is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games. The Terrapins are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games. The Thundering Herd are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Bet Maryland Thursday.
|12-26-13||Utah State v. Northern Illinois +1||21-14||Loss||-106||31 h 35 m||Show|
15* Utah State/Northern Illinois Poinsettia Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois +1
Sure, Northern Illinois missed out on a chance to play in a BCS Bowl game due to its first loss of the season in the MAC Championship against Bowling Green. Many folks believe they will not show up because of these circumstances, but I am not one of them.
Northern Illinois has one of the best leaders in the entire country at quarterback in Jordan Lynch, and I have 100% confidence he'll rally the troops and go out with a victory in the final game of his collegiate career. You think this senior is just going to pack it in in his final game? No chance.
Lynch was as deserving as anyone to win the Heisman Trophy. He was worth more wins to his team than any player in the country. Lynch has completed 63.1 percent of his passes for 2,676 yards with 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 1,881 yards and 22 scores. No player put up better numbers than that.
The Huskies still have plenty to play for. They can set a single-season school record for victories despite the loss to Bowling Green. "(That) game doesn't define us - we're not going to let it," coach Rod Carey said. "We've got another game. We still have a lot to play for."
I give Utah State a lot of credit for the way that it has fought after losing starting quarterback Chuckie Keaton for the season. However, this guy is simply irreplaceable, and the Aggies are much worse off without him. Keaton had thrown 18 touchdowns against two interceptions before going down with injury.
Backup Darell Garretson has nine picks against five interceptions on the year for a comparison. He is also completing just 60.3 percent of his passes compared to 69.4 for Keaton. The massive edge the Huskies have at the quarterback position in this one will be the reason that they win as Lynch won't be denied in his final game.
Northern Illinois is 8-1 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in its last game over the past three seasons. It is coming back to win 47-9 to 20.9 in this spot, or by an average of 27.0 points per game. Take Northern Illinois Thursday.
|12-26-13||Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 v. Houston Rockets||Top||92-100||Loss||-103||9 h 42 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +7.5
This is the perfect spot to fade the Houston Rockets. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest spots in the league. Plus, they are coming off a huge win at San Antonio last night, setting them up for a big letdown spot here.
After not spending Christmas with their families, these Rockets' players return home and will be more concerned about spending time with their loved ones rather than playing this game. Memphis, meanwhile, comes in on two days' rest having last played on Monday. It will be 100% focused heading into this one.
Houston is 8-28 ATS in its last 36 home games when playing its 5th game in 7 days. Memphis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games when playing on two days rest. Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a S.U. win. Bet the Grizzlies Thursday.
|12-26-13||Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 205||127-125||Loss||-110||8 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Cavaliers UNDER 205
There is a ton of value on the UNDER in this game between Atlanta and Cleveland tonight. The books have been forced to set this total higher than it should be due to Atlanta going 10-1 to the over in its last 11 games, and Cleveland going 6-1 to the over in its last seven games.
A look at the recent meetings between these teams says everything. The Cavs and Hawks have combined for 205 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings. The one 205-point effort was an overtime game in which the game was tied 91-91 at the end of regulation for 182 combined points.
These teams have met once this season with Atlanta winning 108-89 on the road for 197 combined points. That total was set at 195.5 on December 6, and this total has been set nearly 10 points higher at 205. That shows you how much value is on the UNDER in this game tonight.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (ATLANTA) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 72-25 (74.2%) over the last five seasons. Cleveland is 36-20 to the UNDER in home games following one or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|12-26-13||Pittsburgh +5 v. Bowling Green||Top||30-27||Win||100||27 h 56 m||Show|
20* Pittsburgh/Bowling Green Pizza Bowl No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +5
The Bowling Green Falcons feel very accomplished. They won the MAC this season with a win over previously unbeaten Northern Illinois in the title game. No matter what happens in this bowl game, the Falcons will have had a great season.
The success that Bowling Green had this year lead to head coach Dave Clawson leaving to become the head coach at Wake Forest. Assistant head coach Adam Scheier will be the interim coach for the bowl game. This will be a distraction for the Falcons as well as they probably feel betrayed by Clawson for leaving.
Pittsburgh (6-6) will be motivated to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2010. Only once was Pittsburgh really blown out all season, and that came in the opener against Florida State, which is clearly the best team in the country. The other five losses all came by 11 points or fewer.
The Panthers played the 32nd-toughest schedule in the country this season according to strength of schedule ratings that I trust. Bowling Green played the 124th-toughest schedule in the country this year. So, there's no question that the Panthers are more battle-tested heading into this one.
I believe that will pay off and I'll gladly back a dog from the ACC over a favorite from the MAC, which is arguably the weakest conference in the country. Bowling Green went 0-2 this season against teams from BCS conferences, including a 10-42 loss at Indiana.
The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five December games. The Panthers are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a loss. Bet Pittsburgh Thursday.
|12-25-13||Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors -2||Top||103-105||Push||0||20 h 51 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -2
The Golden State Warriors are back in business now that they have gotten a healthy Andre Iguodala back. This guy was one of the biggest acquisitions in the offseason, but he has gone unnoticed for the most part.
The Warriors have won each of their last two games with a blowout home win 102-83 over the Lakers, and an impressive 89-81 road victory over the Nuggets. Quietly, Iguodala has shot 52.2 percent from the field this season while averaging 11.2 points, 5.2 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 1.7 assists. He is their best perimeter defender, which always gets overlooked.
Los Angeles is being overvalued right now due to its five-game winning streak heading into this game. Four of those five wins have come at home. The Clippers are just 8-7 on the road this year, while the Warriors are 9-4 at home. The home team has won four straight meetings between these teams, including three by double-digits.
Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Golden State is 9-1 ATS a home game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last two seasons. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Golden State. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.
|12-25-13||Iowa State -4.5 v. Boise St||70-66||Loss||-104||18 h 13 m||Show|
15* Iowa State/Boise State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa State -4.5
The Iowa State Cyclones are clearly one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have opened the season a perfect 10-0 while going 5-2 against the spread in lined games. They will be going for their best start in school history Wednesday, so they clearly want to accomplish that feat.
That shouldn't be a problem against a Boise State team that hasn't beaten anybody this season. It has lost to its two toughest opponents in Kentucky (55-70) and St. Mary's (74-82). It also barely escaped with a 62-61 victory over Hawaii a couple days ago to open up this tournament.
Iowa State has beaten three of the best teams in the country en route to this 10-0 start to really prove that it is for real. It has taken down the likes of Michigan, BYU and Iowa already this season, and Boise State is not as good as any of those three squads.
The Cyclones are 39-17 ATS in their last 56 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Iowa State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a wining record. Boise State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Roll with Iowa State Wednesday.
|12-25-13||Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 187.5||95-78||Win||100||9 h 21 m||Show|
15* Bulls/Nets ESPN Early Riser on UNDER 187.5
The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets. These teams do not like each other at all after playing in seven-game series in the opening round of the playoffs last year.
That also means that these teams are familiar with one another, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games. One big difference from the playoffs series last year is that the Bulls no longer have Nate Robinson at point guard to bail them out, which is big with Derrick Rose out.
Neither team really likes to push the tempo. Chicago ranks 28th in the league in pace at 93.5 possessions per game, while Brooklyn ranks 24th in pace at 94.9 possessions per game. The Bulls also rank 29th in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging just 96.2 points per 100 possessions. However, they make up for it on the other end, ranking 5th in defensive efficiency at 98.7 points per 100 possessions allowed.
Chicago is 14-3 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The Bulls are 12-2 to the UNDER vs. a team with a losing record this season. The UNDER is 23-8 in Bulls last 31 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|12-24-13||Oregon State -3 v. Boise State||Top||38-23||Win||100||28 h 59 m||Show|
20* Oregon State/Boise State Hawaii Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Oregon State -3
The Oregon State Beavers played an absolute brutal schedule this season and will come into the Hawaii Bowl a lot more battle-tested than Boise State. They will be hungry to make amends for a five-game losing streak to close out the regular season and to gain back some momentum heading into next year.
According to some ratings that I trust, the Beavers played the 12th-most difficult schedule in the country, while the Broncos played the 94th-toughest schedule. Only three Pac-12 teams played a tougher schedule, and it comes as no surprise that four of the top 11 teams are from the Pac-12 considering how tough that conference was this season.
Oregon State's five losses to close out the season came against Stanford, USC, Arizona State, Washington, and Oregon. It only lost by a final of 35-36 at Oregon as a 24-point underdog in the season finale to really show what it is capable of. USC crushed Fresno State in their bowl game, and Boise State lost to Fresno State earlier this season.
Boise State did get a taste of the Pac-12 to open the season. It lost by a final of 6-38 at Washington in what was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Broncos were outgianed 346-592 by the Huskies in the loss. They also fell to Fresno State, BYU and San Diego State this year in what was a down year for them given their expectations over the past decade.
The Broncos suffered a big blow when starting quarterback Joe Southwick was suspended for the Hawaii Bowl after urinating off a hotel balcony. He has gone as far as to take a polygraph test to prove his innocence, which he passed. However, Boise State issued a statement late MOnday afternoon standing by the decision to dismiss Southwick.
"We investigated the matter with university administrators, coaching staff, a law enforcement official, hotel security and student-athletes," the statement said. "We made the decision to send the student-athlete home, and we stand by this difficult decision."
Backup Grant Hedrick played well in place of an injured Southwick earlier this season, so in all honesty it doesn't make that big of a difference. I do believe Southwick is slightly better, but the big thing is that this is going to be a distraction for the team. Not to mention that head coach Chris Peterson left to take the Washington job, leaving Bob Gregory as the interim coach. That's another distraction that the players have had to deal with leading up to this game.
Oregon State ranks 3rd in the country in passing offense at 382.1 yards per game. It is led by Sean Mannion, who is having a monster season. He is completing 66.0 percent of his passes for 4,403 yards with 36 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. Boise State's biggest weakness has been against the pass as it has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.1 percent of their passes for an average of 248 yards per game.
The Beavers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. awful passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse. Oregon State is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games following a bye week. The Beavers are 7-0 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games since 1992. The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet Oregon State Tuesday.
|12-23-13||Atlanta Falcons +14 v. San Francisco 49ers||Top||24-34||Win||102||33 h 54 m||Show|
20* Falcons/49ers MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta +14
The Atlanta Falcons clearly have not quit on their season. They have won two of their last three games, and each of their last four games have been decided by four points or less. That includes losses to playoff contenders in New Orleans (13-17) and Green Bay (21-22) for their only two setbacks during this stretch. In fact, this team has been very competitive all season as 10 of their 14 games have been decided by eight points or fewer. Unlike last year, they simply have not gotten the breaks in close games.
Atlanta has every reason to show up Monday to try and avenge last year
|12-23-13||Indiana Pacers v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 193||103-86||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Nets UNDER 193
Both the Pacers and Nets have been going over the total frequently of late. The Pacers are 7-4 to the over in their last 11 games, while the Nets are 4-0 to the over in their last four games. This has forced the oddsmakers to adjust and set this total tonight higher than it should be.
A dead giveaway that there is value with the UNDER tonight is the fact that the books set the total at 187.5 in the first meeting of the season between these teams. Indiana won that contest 96-91 for 187 combined points.
Both Brooklyn and Indiana like to play at a slower pace than league average. Indiana ranks 22nd in the league in pace at 95.3 possessions per game, while Brooklyn ranks 25th in pace at 94.7 possessions per contest. The Pacers make nothing easy on their opponents as they rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 93.6 points per 100 possessions.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (INDIANA) - after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 29-7 (80.6%) since 1996. Indiana is 9-1 to the UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
|12-23-13||Atlanta Hawks v. Miami Heat UNDER 207.5||Top||119-121||Loss||-110||8 h 33 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawks/Heat UNDER 207.5
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between two of three teams in the Eastern Conference who actually have winning records on the season. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between the Hawks and Heat tonight.
It's easy to see that this total has been inflated. The reason why is that Atlanta has gone over the total in nine of its last 10 games overall, while Miami has gone over the number in eight of the last 10. These recent over trends have forced the oddsmakers to set too big of a number here as the betting public is all over the over. We'll take advantage and back the under.
This will be the second meeting of the season between Atlanta and Miami. The first resulted in a 104-88 home win by the Heat with a total set of 204.5 points. They combined for 192 points in that game, and I look for a similar result in this one.
Get this. If you don't count overtime, Miami and Atlanta have combined for 201 or fewer points in 28 straight meetings since 2008. That's a perfect 28-0 system backing the UNDER in this game pertaining to tonight's total set of 207.5 points. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|12-23-13||Detroit Pistons v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 203||115-92||Loss||-105||7 h 27 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Cavaliers UNDER 203
This line is simply an overreaction from both the Pistons and Cavaliers playing in high-scoring games of late. The over is 9-0 in Pistons last nine games overall, while the over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last six games overall. This has created a ton of line value for us to pounce on the UNDER tonight.
Just looking at the season averages for both teams, it's easy to see that there is some value with this UNDER. Detroit is combining with its opponents to average 202.3 points per game on the season, while Cleveland is combining with its opponents for 196.8 points per game on the year.
Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace. Detroit is 16th in the league in pace at 96.5 possessions per game, while Cleveland is 17th at 96.1 possessions per game. Detroit is 16th in offensive efficiency at 102.8 points per 100 possessions, and Cleveland is 26th at 97.8 points per 100 possessions.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DETROIT) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 73-39 (65.2%) over the past five seasons.
Cleveland is 26-9 to the UNDER off a division game over the last three seasons. The Cavs are 15-5 to the UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams that score 99 or more points per game over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 13-3 in Cavaliers last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 41-18 in the last 59 meetings in this series, and 20-7 in the last 27 meetings in Cleveland. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|12-23-13||Ohio +14 v. East Carolina||Top||20-37||Loss||-106||26 h 4 m||Show|
20* Ohio/East Carolina Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl No-Brainer on Ohio +14
The Ohio Bobcats certainly looked terrible in losing three straight games down the stretch in blowout fashion. However, they showed tremendous character by coming out on Senior Day and destroying Massachusetts by a final of 51-23 to really take out their frustration. That effort was led by senior quarterback Tyler Tettleton, who has had a tremendous career here. He came into the season as the school
|12-22-13||Chicago Bears +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles||11-54||Loss||-103||45 h 28 m||Show|
15* Bears/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Chicago +3
The Bears have picked up two huge wins over the past two weeks to stay alive for the NFC North Title. If they win out, they will be crowned your division champions. After throttling Dallas 45-28 at home on December 9, the Bears went on the road and knocked off Cleveland 38-31 last week. Jay Cutler started shaky in his first start back from injury, but led the Bears to 21 points in the fourth quarter and a confidence-building come-from-behind victory.
Chicago has been dynamite on offense under first-year head coach Marc Trestman no matter who has been under center. It is averaging 29.0 points per game and 393.4 yards per contest to rank 7th in the league in total offense. The Bears should have their way with a Philadelphia defense that ranks 30th in the league, giving up 402.2 yards per game. The Eagles allowed 370 passing yards to Matt Cassel and the Minnesota Vikings last week in a humbling 30-48 road loss. If they would have won that game, they could have clinched the NFC East with a victory this week.
Now, the Eagles can afford to lose this game and still clinch the division with a win over the Dallas Cowboys next week. That could have them not even showing up knowing that next week
|12-22-13||Toronto Raptors +10 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||104-98||Win||100||8 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Toronto Raptors +10
The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a massive letdown spot here. They are coming off a 113-100 win at San Antonio Saturday night, which is their biggest rivals. It's only human nature for them to come back home tonight and not show up with the effort it will take to cover a double-digit spread in this 2nd of a back-to-back situation.
Toronto has been playing team basketball since trading away Rudy Gay to Sacramento. It has won four of its last six games since the trade, which includes a perfect 3-0 road record with wins over the Lakers, Bulls, and Mavericks. This is one of the most underrated teams in the league in my opinion.
Plays on road teams (TORONTO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 69-23 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 47-18 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Mark Brooks is 15-29 ATS off five or more consecutive wins as the coach of Oklahoma City. The Thunder are only winning 101.2 to 99.2 in this spot, or by an average of 2.0 points per game. They are clearly overvalued here and it's time to fade them, especially on the 2nd of a back-to-back off such a big win over the Spurs. Take the Raptors Sunday.
|12-22-13||California +11 v. Creighton||54-68||Loss||-102||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Night Line Mistake on California +11
The California Bears are showing tremendous value as a double-digit underdog to Creighton tonight. This is going to be one of the better teams in the Pac-12 despite some early struggles.
This is a classic case of overvalued and undervalued at its finest. Cal has favored to cover the spread in three straight games coming in, while Creighton has covered the spread in three straight. This automatically creates the kind of line value that is hard to pass up.
Cal's three losses this season have come against very good competition on the road in Syracuse, Dayton and UC-Santa Barbara. Creighton has some ugly losses to San Diego State and George Washington on a neutral court despite being a favorite in both contests, so this team is vulnerable.
Cal is outrebounding its opponents 40-33 on the season, and getting to the free throw line 24 times per game. Creighton is only outrebounding foes 37-32 and getting to the line 21 times per game.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (CALIFORNIA) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread are 116-58 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. This trend just goes to show that you should back a cold team ATS against a hot team ATS, especially when catching double-digits on the road. Bet California Sunday.
|12-22-13||Boston Celtics +12.5 v. Indiana Pacers||79-106||Loss||-110||7 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +12.5
The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the Indiana Pacers tonight. Boston will be motivated for a number of reasons tonight, not the least of which is an 82-97 home loss to the Pacers in their first meeting this season.
Boston blew a 50-42 halftime lead to Indiana in that game. Yesterday , Boston blew a 92-84 lead over Washington with 6:14 to play. A 14-1 run by the Wizards gave them a 106-99 win to escape with a victory from the jaws of defeat.
Sure, this will be a second of a back-to-back for Boston, but that's not concerning one bit. That's because the Celtics had two days off before that game against Washington, and now they won't play against until December 28 after this game against Indiana. That will have them playing with a sense of urgency as they want to enjoy their break with an upset victory over the Pacers.
Boston has played extremely well since that loss to Indiana back on November 22. It has gone 8-6 SU & 8-6 ATS in its last 14 games overall. What's most amazing about this run is that the Celtics have not lost one game by more than 8 points during this stretch, making for a perfect 14-0 system backing them pertaining to tonight's spread of 12.5. Roll with the Celtics Sunday.
|12-22-13||Arizona Cardinals +10.5 v. Seattle Seahawks||Top||17-10||Win||100||61 h 23 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Cardinals +10.5
The Arizona Cardinals are still getting no respect. They are 40/1 to win the NFC and 75/1 to win the Super Bowl. Sure, they have to win out and get some help to make the playoffs, but this is a team that deserves more respect than they are getting. They could finish with 11 wins and not make the postseason, and I believe they are under the radar because they aren't considered a playoff team due to their situation in the stacked NFC.
The Cardinals will want revenge not only from their 22-34 home loss to the Seahawks earlier this season, but from their 0-58 loss in Seattle last year en route to losing 11 of their final 12 games. However, this team has done a complete 180 in 2013 and has finished the season playing its best football of the year.
Since the loss to Seattle, Arizona has won six of its last seven games overall with its only loss coming as a 3.5-point underdog at Philadelphia by a final of 21-24. Carson Palmer's 106.0 passer rating is among the NFL's best during this stretch. He has made a huge difference on this team by giving head coach Bruce Arians a legitimate passing attack to work with.
However, it's the Arizona defense that really has me believing they can not only stay with Seattle, but possibly put an end to the Seahawks' home winning streak. The Cardinals rank 7th in total defense, 8th in scoring defense, 1st in rushing yards allowed per game, 2nd in rushing yards allowed per play, 5th in passing yards allowed per play, 7th in opponent passer rating, T-7th in sacks, 4th in takeaways and 5th in interceptions.
As you can see by these impressive stats, this is a defense that will keep you in the game. That's why the Cardinals went out and signed Palmer because he was the missing link. The organization knew they had a top-notch defense, but Palmer has made a huge difference in giving the Cardinals their first winning season since 2009. Malcolm Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald have benefited from a passing game that the Cardinals have not seen since Kurt Warner was here.
There's no question that Seattle is one of the best teams in the league, but it is getting too much respect here. The books are putting too much stock in the Seahawks' 23-0 win over the New York Giants last week. The Giants have clearly quit on the season. While this is a must-win situation for Arizona, Seattle knows that it can afford to lose this game and then beat St. Louis at home next week to secure the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the NFC. There's no question in my mind that Arizona wants this game more, and that will show on the field Sunday.
Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (SEATTLE) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 38-12 (76%) ATS since 1983. The Cardinals are 39-17 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game since 1992. Arizona is 37-21 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent since 1992. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bet Arizona Sunday.
|12-22-13||Connecticut v. Washington +6||82-70||Loss||-110||4 h 28 m||Show|
15* UConn/Washington ESPNU No-Brainer on Washington +6
Washington is off to just a 6-4 start this season, but all but one of its losses have come against quality competition. Three of its four losses have come to Indiana, Boston College and San Diego State, which were all on the road.
The Huskies have played very well over the past month, winning four of their last five games with their only loss coming at San Diego State by a final of 63-70 as an 11-point underdog. They are 5-1 at home this season where they are putting up 85.3 points per game on the season.
UConn is overvalued due to its 9-1 start. This team has won a whopping four games by two points or less and by a combined five points. That's how close this team is to being a 5-5 squad right now.
What's most amazing about that is that UConn has yet to play a true road game this season. It will be traveling all the way out to the west coast to play in a hostile environment. UConn has lost three of its past four non-conference true road games dating to last season.
UConn is only even with teams in rebounding margin this season. It is only grabbing seven offensive boards per game while giving up 11. Washington is outrebounding opponents 37-33 on the year. While UConn is only getting to the free throw line 20 times per game, Washington is getting to the charity stripe 26 times per contest, cashing in 77.6% of them.
UConn is 0-6 ATS versus good foul drawing teams who attempt at least 25 free throws per game over the past two seasons. UConn is 0-6 ATS in road games off two straight non-conference games over the last two years. Take Washington Sunday.
|12-22-13||Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars +5||20-16||Win||100||38 h 59 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +5
It has been fun to watch the way that the Jaguars have rallied in the second half of the season after a winless first half. They have won four of their last six games overall with victories at Tennessee, Houston and Cleveland, as well as a home triumph over the Texans. They did play pretty well last week given the circumstances, but lost 20-27 to Buffalo due to committing four turnovers to give the game away.
Chad Henne has played well at quarterback, and the defense has improved under the defensive-minded Gus Bradley as the season has gone on. Henne is completing 60.0 percent of his passes for 2,673 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. Jordan Todman played well in place of an injured Maurice Jones-Drew last week, rushing for 109 yards on 25 carries to give the offense some nice balance. In fact, the Jaguars have rushed for 112 or more yards in four straight games to take some of the pressure off of Henne.
Tennessee has completely fallen apart down the stretch, losing five of its last six games overall to take itself right out of the playoffs. Now, officially eliminated from the playoffs after last week
|12-22-13||Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.5 v. St. Louis Rams||13-23||Loss||-110||38 h 59 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.5
After an 0-8 start where nothing went right and they lost every close game, the Buccaneers have really showed some pride in the second half of the season. This team has been given the toughest schedule in the league, having to play Carolina and New Orleans twice, while also having to go up against the entire NFC West division. They have been done no favors from the schedule makers, which clearly has them battle-tested heading into the final two games of the season.
Tampa Bay has gone a very profitable 5-2 against the spread in its last seven games overall. It has beaten Miami, Atlanta, Detroit and Buffalo outright during this stretch. All three of its losses during this span have come against arguably the three best teams in the NFC in Seattle, Carolina and San Francisco. It even took the Seahawks to overtime on the road back on November 3, losing 24-27 as a 16-point underdog to rally show what it is capable of.
Given the difficult schedule, the Bucs have actually played very well defensively this season. They only give up an average of 344.5 yards per game to rank 13th in the league in total defense. The Rams have been more vulnerable on this side of the ball, ranking 21st in total defense at 362.9 yards per game. They aren