20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers are in a three-way tie with the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat for the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference.  Unfortunately for them, they lose the tiebreaker to both teams, so they are on the outside looking in right now.

They'll clearly be motivated as a result, and I like what I saw from them in a 108-90 home win over the Raptors on Tuesday after losing in double-overtime to Cleveland on the road the game prior.  Lance Stephenson gave them a spark in the second half, and Paul George is on a tear, averaging 31.3 points in his last eight games.

"I'm dialed in," George told Pacers.com. "Whatever it takes to get it, I'm going to work my butt off and try to get us on the right path. Every night I am going to try and put it all out on that floor."

The Milwaukee Bucks are only playing for either the 5th or 6th seed, so not nearly as much is at stake for them.  And they are playing like it, getting upset 105-109 as 6.5-point home favorites against the Mavs, and getting blown out 79-110 at Oklahoma City as 6-point dogs in their last two games coming in.

The Pacers had lost the first three meetings of the season to the Raptors before beating them by 18 last time out.  Well, they'll also be looking to avoid the season sweep after losing the first three meetings of the season to the Bucks as well.  That will only add to their motivation tonight.

Indiana is 27-12 at home this season.  The Pacers are 14-4 ATS in a home game with a total of 200 to 209.5 this season.  The Pacers are 21-10 ATS vs. division opponents over the past two seasons.  Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Tigers -118

The Chicago White Sox are going to be one of the worst teams in baseball this season.  They are on full-on rebuilding mode after trading away Chris Sale and Adam Eaton in the offseason.  Any time we can fade them at a generous price like this one, we're going to look to do so.

James Shields went 6-19 with a 5.85 ERA in 2016.  He went 4-22 with a 6.77 ERA in 22 starts for the White Sox after being traded from San Diego last season.  You know the White Sox are in poor shape when he's their No. 3 starter.  Shields gave up 16 earned runs over 22 innings in four starts against the Tigers last season, posting a 6.55 ERA.

Matt Boyd has earned a rotation spot thanks to a strong spring training in which he posted a 2.10 ERA.  He struck out 23 batters in 25 2/3 innings this spring.  Boyd faced the White Sox four times last year, and he didn't allow more than 2 earned runs in each of his last three starts against them.

Shields is 9-24 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last two seasons.  Detroit is 46-22 (+19.1 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 7-3 in Boyd's last 10 starts.  The White Sox are 2-7 in Shields' last nine starts.  Take the Tigers Thursday.

15* Warriors/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +10

The Golden State Warriors are way overvalued right now due to winning 12 straight games coming in.  This winning streak has allowed them to clinch the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, which means they have nothing to play for the rest of the way.

Now the Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days tonight, so they are extremely tired right now.  That's why they are expected to rest both Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala tonight, and Kevin Durant isn't expected to return until Saturday.

The Phoenix Suns are undervalued due to losing 12 straight coming in, but they have been competitive of late, going 4-2 ATS in their last six games.  That includes a 6-point loss to the Clippers, a 10-point loss at Boston, a 4-point loss at Atlanta, and a 7-point loss to Houston.  They will show up for the Warriors tonight at home.

Phoenix is 24-12 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Phoenix is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Golden State.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +8.5

The Denver Nuggets have gone on the road and pulled off back-to-back upset wins over the Heat and Pelicans to pull within a half-game of the Portland Trail Blazers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a win in Houston tonight.

Conversely, the Houston Rockets are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, so they have nothing to play for the rest of the way.  That has started to show as they are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  And now they are dealing with some key injuries as both Sam Dekker (hand) and Ryan Anderson (ankle) are out, while Trevor Ariza (personal) and James Harden (flu) are both questionable tonight.

The Nuggets will want revenge from losing each of the first three meetings with the Rockets this season and avoiding the season sweep.  The last two have been excruciating as they lost 109-105 at home, and 124-125 on the road.  I think they'll easily stay within this 8.5-point spread, possibly pulling off the upset tonight.

The Nuggets are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs a team with a winning record.  The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -113

Last year, Baltimore lost the season series to Toronto 10-9.  That gave the Blue Jays the home-field advantage in the AL wild-card game, which went to Toronto in extra innings with a 5-2 victory on Edwin Encarnacion's three-run homer in the 11th.

There is some bad blood in this rivalry, and the Orioles want some serious payback this season.  That's why they'll be motivated to sweep the Jays after winning the opener 3-2.  Now they're sending perhaps their most talented starter to the mount today in Dylan Bundy, a former first-round pick who stepped into the starting rotation in the second half of last year and really threw well at times.

J.A. Happ had a great season last year with 20 victories.  However, he was one of the luckiest starters in baseball according to the metrics, and he's in line for some big-time regression in 2017.  Happ is 4-3 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.279 WHIP in 11 career starts against Baltimore.  Bundy is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in four career relief appearances against Toronto.

Baltimore is 40-15 (+18.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons.  The home team is 37-18 in Eric Cooper's last 55 Wednesday games behind home plate.  Roll with the Orioles Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -137

After losing their opener Sunday in walk off fashion to the rival St. Louis Cardinals, I full expect the Chicago Cubs to bounce back with a victory here in Game 2 Tuesday.  They have the clear edge on the mound and at the plate in this one.

Jake Arrieta went 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA last year to follow up his Cy Young Award season of 2015.  He has a history of success against the Cardinals, going 7-2 with a 1.85 ERA in 13 career starts.  He limited opponents to an MLB-low .194 batting average last year.

Adam Wainwright went 13-9 with a 4.62 ERA last season.  He clearly has lost it and probably will never return to his once dominant form.  Wainwright posted a 7.98 ERA in three starts against the Cubs last season.

Arrieta is 15-1 (+13.6 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are 41-15 in Arrieta's last 56 starts.  The Cardinals are 0-7 in their last seven games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take the Cubs Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers are tied with the Miami Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They lose the tiebreaker, so they need to actually gain a game on the Heat the rest of the way to get in.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight, especially after four straight losses coming in, including a double-OT hearbreaker against the Cavs last time out.

The good news for the Pacers is that they'll be playing on their home floor tonight, where they have been dominant all season.  The Pacers are 26-12 at home this year.  They are clearly undervalued right now due to their recent skid, and they want revenge from a 100-111 loss at Toronto on March 31st just a few days ago.

Conversely, the Raptors come in overvalued due to going 8-1 in their last nine games overall.  This entire run has come against teams seeded 7th or worst in the playoff standings currently.  They have beaten up on some bad teams, but they will get some resistance from a Pacers team tonight that is desperate for a win.

The home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Indiana is 24-13 ATS in home games revenging a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

20* UNC/Gonzaga Championship Game No-Brainer on UNC -1

The UNC Tar Heels suffered the agony of losing on a buzzer-beater in last year's championship game against Villanova. They've been on a mission all season to get that sour taste out of their mouths, and now they have a chance to do just that by beating Gonzaga Monday.

The Bulldogs have had a huge size advantage against everyone they have faced this season.  But that won't be the case against UNC, which is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing 43% of their own misses on the season.  They have done so behind the duo of Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks.

The X-factor for the Tar Heels' is Theo Pinson, who has missed 19 games this season due to injury, but has gotten healthy and come up huge in the NCAA Tournament.  He is their best perimeter defender, and he will harass Nigel Williams-Goss and whoever he is matched up against in this game.  He just makes so many huge plays that don't always show up in the box score, including game-winning plays against both Kentucky and Oregon.

UNC has faced the much tougher path to reach the Championship Game.  Gonzaga couldn't have had a much easier path with games against South Dakota State, Northwestern, WVU, Xavier and South Carolina.  I think the fact that the Tar Heels are more battle-tested and that they were just here last year will be a huge advantage.  You can't simulate their championship game experience.

Bets on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N CAROLINA) - team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games, and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four vs. ACC opponents.  The Tar Heels are 21-8-3 ATS in their last 32 neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet North Carolina Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -154

The Boston Red Sox have the best lineup in baseball, and it's really not even all that close.  They hit .281 and scored 5.4 runs per game last season, including .299 and 5.9 runs per game at home.  Now Pablo Sandoval looks like his old self, which will help make up for the absence of David Ortiz.

Rick Porcello won the AL Cy Young last year by going 22-5 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in 34 starts.  Porcello went 13-1 with a 2.97 ERA in 16 home starts last year.  The right-hander has never lost to the Pirates, going 2-0 with a 0.39 ERA and 0.609 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Gerrit Cole had an injury-plagued 2016 campaign.  He finished 7-10 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in 21 starts, including 5-5 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.567 WHIP in 10 road starts.  Now he has to open the 2017 season against the best lineup in baseball, so don't expect him to turn it around in time.

The Red Sox are 15-1 in Porcello's last 16 home starts.  Boston is 86-34 in its last 120 interleague games.  The Red Sox are 21-7 in their last 28 during game 1 of a series.  The Pirates are 0-5 in Cole's last five starts.  The Pirates are 26-54 in their last 80 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take the Red Sox Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Nets UNDER 217

The Atlanta Hawks have really struggled to score without Paul Millsap.  That's why they are just 2-8 in their last 10 games overall.  They have been held to 100 or fewer points in nine of those 10 contests.  The UNDER is 8-1 in their last nine games as a result.

I like the fact that the Nets and Hawks just played a week ago, and this will actually be their 3rd meeting in a month.  They combined for 199 points a week ago, and 215 points in the meeting prior.  They are obviously very familiar with each other now, and familiarity favors the defenses.

In fact, the Hawks and Nets have combined for 215 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 12 straight meetings.  That makes for a perfect 12-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today's total set of 217.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.v

15* Giants/Diamondbacks 2017 MLB Season Opener on Arizona +140

The Arizona Diamondbacks are one of the most underrated teams in the league heading into 2017.  They were expected to make a run at the NL West last year, but fell flat on their faces with a 69-93 finish.  Injuries and bullpen issues really brought them down.

Look for the Diamondbacks to realize their potential this season.  They have one of the best lineups in the National League, and their rotation should be healthier this year.  There's no question that Zack Greinke will bounce back following a sub-par season in his first year of the new $200 million contract.

"I still have really high hopes for our team," Greinke said this spring. "I thought we were going to be really good going into last year. We pretty much have the same team or a very similar team. I think we should be good. I'm shocked we didn't do better last year."

Greinke has owned the Giants throughout his career, going 9-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.  Roll with the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* Jazz/Spurs ABC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Utah +5.5

The San Antonio Spurs are essentially locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  They aren't catching the Warriors, and they are way ahead of the Rockets.  I question their motivation the rest of the regular season as a result.

Greg Popovich is taking the conservative approach already.  LaMarcus Aldridge, Manu Ginobli and Danny Green are all expected to miss today's game due to either minor injuries or rest.  So the Spurs will be short-handed for this matchup already.

Unlike the Spurs, the Jazz actually have something to play for.  The lead the Clippers by just one game for the 4th seed, which would give them home-court advantage in the first round.  The Jazz have been fighting to hold on to that seed, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games coming in.

Utah is 37-14 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  The Jazz are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Sunday games.  The Spurs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina +7

The South Carolina Gamecocks have been disrespected the entire NCAA Tournament.  They are still getting no love from oddsmakers here as 7-point underdogs in the Final Four, and that's precisely the way that Frank Martin and company like it.

The Gamecocks have pulled four straight 'upsets' to get here in beating Marquette, Duke, Baylor and Florida.  But really, these games weren't even all that close as all four wins came by 7 points or more, including two by exactly 20 points.  The Gamecocks are playing as well as anyone right now.

This is a team that I love to back because they get after it defensively better than anyone in college basketball.  Nothing comes easy against them, and offensively, they have found their stride in the tournament, averaging 82.0 points per game. They have the best player in the tournament to bail them out in Sindarius Thornwell, who is averaging 25.8 points in the big dance while scoring at least 24 points in every game.

The Gamecocks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 non-conference games.  South Carolina is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 neutral site games.  I think Gonzaga is being overvalued here due to its blowout win over Xavier in the Elite 8.  But the Musketeers didn't belong in the Elite 8 and were the worst team left in the field.  The only real team that Gonzaga has faced is West Virginia, and it was fortunate to escape with a 3-point victory.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4.5

The Chicago Bulls got a big break yesterday when BOTH the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers lost.  That means they are just 0.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the East as they sit at 36-39, while both the Pacers and Heat are 37-39.  They can pull even with them with a win today.

The Bulls will be well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  And they'll come in with confidence after pulling off back-to-back upsets 109-94 at Milwaukee as 6.5-point dogs, and 99-93 at home over Cleveland as 5.5-point dogs.

The Atlanta Hawks are just 2-7 in their last nine games overall.  Their two wins were struggles over Phoenix (by 4) and Philadelphia (by 7).  They are 2-8 without Paul Millsap this season.  Millsap will be out again Saturday, as will their best defender in Thobo Sefolosha, who would usually match up with Jimmy Butler.

The Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Take the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2.5

We're getting the Utah Jazz at a discount at home tonight as only 2.5-point favorites over the Washington Wizards.  The Jazz are motivated to earn home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, and they have played like it their past two games.

Rudy Gobert called out his team following a 95-108 loss to the Clippers on Saturday.  His team has responded by beating the Pelicans 108-100 as 6-point home favorites, and then throttling the Kings 112-82 as 7.5-point road favorites.

The Jazz are 25-12 at home this season and own one of the better home-court advantages in the league.  The Wizards are 17-19 on the road this season.  This will be the 3rd game in 4 days, 5th game in 8 days and the 15th game in 25 days for the Wizards.  They have had a brutal schedule 11 of their last 15 games on the road and they are simply running out of gas right now.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Wizards are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 1 days rest.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Heat UNDER 207

This is a classic home-and-home situation in the NBA.  The Heat just beat the Knicks 105-88 on the road on Wednesday, and now they face each other two days later in Miami.  I also like backing the UNDER in the second meeting in these situations because familiarity favors the defenses.

And these teams combined for only 193 points in the first meeting, and now the total has been set at 207 for the rematch, a full 14 points more.  I think there's some serious value with the UNDER, especially when you look at the head-to-head history in this series.

Indeed, the Knicks and Heat have combined for 204 or fewer points in 28 o their last 29 meetings.  That makes for a 28-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 207.  These are bitter rivals and defense usually wins out.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers +2

The Portland Trail Blazers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They have gone 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  This run has put them into the 8th seed in the Western Conference, just one game ahead of the Denver Nuggets.

While the Blazers have everything to play for, the Rockets are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the West.  I expect them to lack focus down the stretch as a result knowing that winning or losing doesn't matter to them now.

And this is an awful spot for the Rockets.  They are coming off a loss to the Warriors on Tuesday, and now they have a huge game against Golden State on deck tomorrow where they'll be looking for revenge.  I don't expect them to show up at all tonight given the spot.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* Georgia Tech/TCU NIT No-Brainer on TCU -4

The TCU Horned Frogs are clearly on a mission to win the NIT.  And I expect them to get the job done in Jamie Dixon's first year on the job Thursday with another win and cover against Georgia Tech tonight.

I would argue that TCU has beaten three straight opponents that are all better than anyone Georgia Tech has faced in its last three games.  The Horned Frogs won at Iowa, then blew out Richmond (by 18) and UCF (by 15).  Tech's three wins have come against Belmont, Ole Miss and CS-Bakersfield.

The Horned Frogs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games.  That includes an upset win over Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament.  TCU is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet TCU Thursday.

20* Warriors/Spurs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on San Antonio -4

The San Antonio Spurs have played their best basketball against the NBA's top teams.  Indeed, they are 9-1 against the top four teams in the NBA in the Warriors, Cavs, Rockets and Celtics this season.  Their only loss was by two points in November to the Rockets.

The Golden State Warriors are in a tough spot here tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating Houston 113-106 on the road last night.  They will certainly be the more tired team considering the Spurs had yesterday off following their 103-74 thrashing of Cleveland on Monday.

The Spurs have absolutely owned the Warriors in both meetings this season.  They won 129-100 as 8-point road underdogs on October 25th and 107-85 as 10.5-point home favorites on March 11th.  Look for them to improve to 3-0 against the Warriors this season and inch closer to the No. 1 seed in the West tonight.

Golden State is 6-16 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  San Antonio is 19-6 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game this season.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Golden State.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -1.5

The Portland Trail Blazers have fought their way back into an 8th-place tie with the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference.  Now they get to host the Nuggets tonight, and they aren't about to let this golden opportunity slip by.

The Blazers have put themselves in this position by playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  Indeed, they've gone 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Each of their last five victories have come by 11 points or more, so these games really haven't even been close.

The Blazers have owned the Nuggets, too.  They are 5-1 in the last six meetings, and 13-2 in the last 15 meetings.  The Blazers are 30-11 straight up in their last 41 home meetings, including 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Portland.

Portland is 13-2 ATS after a combined score of 185 points or less over the past two seasons.  The Blazers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -3.5

The Indiana Pacers are 26-11 at home this season.  They have the biggest home/away difference in the league this year.  We'll back them at home here against a struggling Minnesota Timberwolves team with nothing to play for.

The Timberwolves have gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are clearly just playing out the string.  But they've also had a brutal schedule with 11 of their last 15 games on the road, and this tough slate appears to be catching up with them.

Bets against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off two consecutive road losses by 10 points or more are 64-29 (68.8%) ATS since 1996.

Indiana is 13-3 ATS in home games where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  Minnesota is 14-30 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  The Pacers are 5-1 ATS int heir last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the Pacers Tuesday.

15* CS-Bakersfield/GA Tech NIT No-Brainer on CS-Bakersfield +2.5

Bakersfield has been the most impressive team in the NIT to this point.  It has pulled off three straight outright road upsets over California (73-66) as 6.5-point dogs, Colorado State (81-63) as 4.5-point dogs and UT-Arlington (80-76) as 4-point dogs.

You could argue that all three of those teams they've already beaten are better than Georgia Tech.  Now Bakersfield finds itself in the role of the dog once again in the semifinals.  This team has been playing tremendous defense, limiting Cal to 33.3% shooting, Colorado State to 34.5% and Arlington to 35.5%.

Georgia Tech is just 3-11 in all road games this season, while Bakersfield is 13-8 away from home.  Bakersfield is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.  The Roadrunners are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  Roll with Bakersfield Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks +2

The Dallas Mavericks are 3.5 games behind the Blazers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They need to finish strong to have any hope, and I like their chances of taking down the Oklahoma City Thunder at home tonight.

This is an awful spot for the Thunder, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 125-137 loss at Houston yesterday.  That shootout clearly took a lot out of them.  Russell Westbrook played 39 minutes in the defeat.

Oklahoma City is 1-9 ATS in road games after covering five or six of their last seven against the spread this season.  The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Dallas is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Warriors UNDER 207.5

This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season between the Grizzlies and Warriors.  It's safe to say that these teams are very familiar with each other by now, and familiarity tends to favor defensive battles.  I expect that to be the case in this game Sunday.

The Warriors have been an UNDER machine since losing Kevin Durant to injury.  In fact, the UNDER is 14-1 in Warriors last 15 games overall.  Now they're up against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA in the Grizzlies, who have allowed 97 or fewer points in each of their last six games coming in.

Memphis is 9-1 UNDER after covering four of their last five against hte spread this season.  Golden State is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four road games.  The UNDER is 70-34-1 in Warriors last 105 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* South Carolina/Florida East Region No-Brainer on Florida -3.5

The Florida Gators have been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament thus far.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their three games.  They beat East Tennessee State by 15, Virginia by 26 and Wisconsin by 1.  They led the Badgers by 12 late in the second half, though.

South Carolina has been the story of the NCAA Tournament, but this Cinderella story comes to an end Sunday.  I like the toughness the Gamecocks have shown, but they've beaten some overrated teams in Marquette, Duke and Baylor to get here.

Now they're up against the 3rd-best team in the country in Florida according to Kenpom.  The Gators rank 4th in defensive efficiency and 25th in offensive efficiency in his rankings.  They should be roughly an 8-point favorite over South Carolina on a neutral court, instead they're only laying 8.5 here.

Florida is 19-8 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Gators are 9-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.  The Gamecocks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. SEC opponents.  The Gators are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 NCAA Tournament games.  Florida is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Florida Sunday.

20* Oregon/Kansas Midwest Region No-Brainer on Kansas -7

The Kansas Jayhawks have been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament thus far.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with wins by 38, 20 and 32 points.  They are simply obliterating the competition, and I expect that to continue here tonight.

The Jayhawks have certainly used location from their No. 1 seed to their advantage.  They got to play close to home in their first two games in Tulsa, and their next two games have been in Kansas City.  They have rode their home crowd edge to 100, 90 and 98 points offensively in their three games.

Oregon has been fortunate to make it this far, needing late comebacks to beat Rhode Island (75-72) and Michigan (69-68). But now the Ducks take a big step up in class here, and this is where the loss of Chris Boucher inside will finally hurt them. Look for Kansas to get whatever it wants offensively and to hang another big number on this Oregon defense.

Kansas is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams who allow 42% or less after 15-plus games this season.  The Ducks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Jayhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Kansas is 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Mavs UNDER 194

The Dallas Mavericks have gotten better defensively since trading for elite rim protector Nerlens Noel from Philadelphia. The Toronto Raptors have struggled offensively since losing PG Kyle Lowry to injury.  I think this game makes for an easy UNDER winner today.

After all, Toronto just beat Dallas 100-78 at home on March 13th for 178 combined points.  Now these teams meet up less than two weeks later in Dallas, and they are obviously very familiar with one another now.  That will familiarity will certainly favor the UNDER again in the rematch.

Toronto is 24-8 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  Dallas is 8-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Toronto is 14-3 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Raptors last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Mavericks last 16 vs. Eastern Conference.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Wisconsin/Florida East Region BAILOUT on Florida PK

No team has been more impressive in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament than Florida.  After beating East Tennessee State as 9.5-point favorites, the Gators rolled Virginia 65-39 as 1.5-point favorites.  They are hitting on all cylinders right now.

Wisconsin is getting a lot of love right now for its upset of Villanova.  However, that was a perfect matchup for the Badgers as they took advantage of their size and the Wildcats' lack of it.  They won't have that same advantage inside over the Gators here.

Kenpom's rankings have Florida as the 4th-best team in the country, and I agree.  They have Wisconsin at 21st.  According to his rankings, the Gators should be roughly 6-point favorites in this game.  I tend to agree with that as well.  This Gators team has been underrated all season.

Florida is 9-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.  The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  The Gators are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Florida is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off a win by more than 20 points.  Bet Florida Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -6

Don't look now but the Milwaukee Bucks are sitting in 6th place in the Eastern Conference just one game behind Atlanta for the No. 5 seed.  Just a few weeks ago it was looking like the Bucks wouldn't even make the playoffs.

But they have buckled down and played their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They've gone 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall, including a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home over this span with all five wins coming by 7 points or more.

The Atlanta Hawks are stuck in strugglesville thanks to key injuries to Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore, both of which are expected to sit out tonight.  They are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with four of those losses coming by 8 or more points.  It's hard to envision them being able to hang with the Bucks without Millsap and Bazemore tonight.

Bets against road underdogs (ATLANTA) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 61-24 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +12

The Brooklyn Nets don't have to tank because they are essentially guaranteed to finish with the worst record in the NBA. As a result, they have been playing their best basketball of the season of late.  They are 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

The Washington Wizards were on fire going into the All-Star Break, but they came out of it overvalued because of it.  And that has shown in the market place as the Wizards are just 4-12 ATS since the Break.  They have gone 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

This is an awful spot for the Wizards, who will be looking ahead to their huge game tomorrow night against the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road.  They won't be focused on the Nets, certainly not enough to put them away by 12-plus points.  Look for them to struggle to even win this game, let alone win by margin.

Washington is 4-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  Bets against home favorites of 10 or more points (WASHINGTON) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 76-34 (69.1%) ATS since 1996.   The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference.  Take the Nets Friday.

15* Xavier/Arizona West Region BAILOUT on Arizona -7.5

The Arizona Wildcats are are set up well to make the Final Four and win it all.  They have will have played close to home all tournament, and that's the case again for the next two rounds as they'll be playing in San Jose, CA.  And then the Final Four will be in Phoenix.

The Wildcats have gone 11-1 in their last 12 games overall, including 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six.  They have the best big man duo in the country down low, and their guards have really taken their games to the next level, especially since getting Alonzo Trier back from suspension.

Xavier has had a nice run thus far, pulling off back-to-back upsets over Maryland and Florida State.  But those two teams faded down the stretch and were two of the most inconsistent teams coming into the tournament.  Xavier meets its match today in Arizona.

Arizona is 8-0 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three against the spread this season.  Xavier is 1-9 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  The Musketeers simply don't have the man power to match up with Arizona's two 7-footers inside.  Take Arizona Thursday.

25* Midwest Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas -5

The Kansas Jayhawks have a huge home-court advantage over Purdue in the Sweet 16.  This game will be played in Kansas City at the Sprint Center, the same location where they play the Big 12 Tournament every year.  It will be a pro-Jayhawk crowd to say the least.

The Jayhawks also had a decided home-court edge in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament in Tulsa, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  They dominated Cal Davis 100-62 as 23-point favorites, and also rolled Michigan State 90-70 as 8-point favorites.  This team is on a mission and has been as impressive as anyone thus far.

Guard play wins out in the NCAA Tournament, and Kansas has the best trio in the country in Mason, Graham and Jackson.  The Boilermakers will be at a severe disadvantage on that front as they don't have the guards that can stay with them.  Athletically, this is a huge mismatch in favor of Kansas.

The Jayhawks are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games.  The Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Kansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Jayhawks are 8-1 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.  Bet Kansas Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER 198.5

This will be the 2nd meeting in 6 days for the Spurs and Grizzlies.  They met up on March 18th in Memphis with the Grizzlies winning 104-96.  Now they are very familiar with one another, and that familiarity favors a defensive battle in the rematch that stays UNDER this 198.5-point total.

This has been a low-scoring series to say the least.  Nine of the last 12 meetings have seen less than 198.5 combined points.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  They have averaged 183.9 combined points per game in those seven meetings, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total of 198.5.

Memphis is 15-4 UNDER vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 39% or better over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Grizzlies last seven Thursday games.  The UNDER is 12-4-1 in Spurs last 17 games following a win.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Antonio.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +10.5

The Philadelphia 76ers have been a covering machine, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are a ridiculous 30-9 ATS in their last 39 games overall, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games coming in.

Now they are catching a whopping 10.5 points against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that is in a terrible spot.  The Thunder will suffer a hangover from their home loss to the Warriors on Monday.  They also have a huge game at Houston on deck, so this is a sandwich game for them.

Philadelphia is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The 76ers are 13-0 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season.  Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 106-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the 76ers.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are finally starting to play up to their potential with DeMarcus Cousins.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to continue their playoff push.  In their three home games during this stretch, all three resulted in blowouts over Portland (by 23), Houston (by 16) and Minnesota (by 14).

The Memphis Grizzlies also come in playing well.  They had lost five straight prior to their current four-game winning streak.  But they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now, and this is clearly a letdown spot off their upset home win over the Spurs last time out.

Not only is this a letdown spot, but it's also a lookahead spot for the Grizzlies.  They have two huge road games on deck against the Spurs and Warriors.  I don't expect them to give the Pelicans their full attention tonight as a result.

The Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  Memphis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Tuesday games.  New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six Tuesday games.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Boise State/Illinois ESPN No-Brainer on Boise State +8.5

The Boise State Broncos went on the road and beat Utah outright 73-68 as 12-point underdogs in the opening round of the NIT.  They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 8.5-point dogs to Illinois in the second round.

The Broncos have been a great bet on the road this season, going 9-8 SU & 10-7 ATS in all away games.  This is a team that only lost by 5 as 18-point road underdogs in non-conference play, too.  They will be in this game from start to finish against a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten squad.

The Fighting Illini lost to Rutgers 59-62 in the season finale and were blown out by Michigan 55-75 in the Big Ten Tournament.  And now they're getting too much respect from the books for their 82-57 win over Valparaiso in the first round of the NIT.  That's a Valpo team that fell apart down the stretch after losing their best player in Alec Peters to a season-ending injury.

Boise State is 26-14 ATS in road games over the past three seasons.  The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog of 7.0-8.5 points.  Take Boise State Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Rockets UNDER 237.5

I love backing the UNDER in the second game of home-and-home situations.  The Rockets and Nuggets just played on Saturday in Denver, and now they play each other again Monday in Houston this time around.

And that meeting Saturday went way UNDER the number.  Houston won 109-105 for 214 combined points despite the fact that the total was set at 241.  Now the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for the situation, setting the total at 237.5 in the rematch.

Bets on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more two straight games are 58-25 (69.9%) over the last five seasons.

Denver is dealing with a bunch of injuries right now that are hampering its offense.  It is expected to be without the trio of Danilo Gallinari, Darrell Arthur and Wilson Chandler in this one.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +3.5

The Indiana Pacers come in well-rested and ready to go tonight.  They have had three days off since thumping the Charlotte Hornets 98-77 at home on Wednesday.  Look for a big effort from them tonight with all this time off coming in.

The Toronto Raptors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  They haven't been playing well since losing their floor general in Kyle Lowry to injury.  They are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by 6, 15 and 21 points in the process.

The Pacers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 Sunday games.  Indiana is 25-10-2 ATS in its last 37 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -2

The Iowa Hawkeyes showed they wanted to be in the NIT with their 87-75 win over South Dakota in the opener.  The Hawkeyes shot 56.5% from the field and were led by some tremendous games from their freshmen.  Tyler Cook had 18 points and 8 rebounds, Isaiah Moss had 16 points and Jordan Bohannon has 19 points and 11 assists, all three being freshmen.

Now the Hawkeyes are up against a TCU team that had NCAA Tournament aspirations before going 3-8 in their final 11 games of the season.  Meanwhile, Iowa is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Horned Frogs are just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in true road games this season.  They'll be up against an Iowa team that has dominated at home, going 15-4 SU & 10-5 ATS on the season.

The Horned Frogs are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  TCU is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Hawkeyes are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  TCU is 1-10 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons.  Bet Iowa Sunday.

15* Wichita State/Kentucky No-Brainer on Kentucky -4

There's no question that Wichita State will want revenge on Kentucky from a few years ago when the Wildcats handed the Shockers their first loss in the NCAA Tournament.  They were a No. 8 seed while the Shockers were a No. 1 seed, and the Wildcats actually went on to lose to UConn in the National Championship Game after the Round of 32 upset.

The difference is that Kentucky was the more talented team then, and they are clearly the more talented team again in 2017.  The Wildcats will run them out of the gym once again.  They have won 12 straight coming in and are clearly hitting their stride.

Wichita State usually has an advantage inside against every opponent it faces, but that won't be the case here.  Edrice Edebayo is one of the most dominant big men in the country, averaging 13.3 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game.  He has only gotten better as the season has gone on and is filling his full potential down the stretch.

Wichita State benefited from an extremely easy schedule this season, but it hasn't done well when stepping up in class.  The Shockers are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their four games against Louisville (52-62, L), Michigan State (72-77, L), Oklahoma State (76-93, L) and Dayton (64-58, W), which are the four best teams they have faced this season.  And they were fortunate to beat Dayton Friday.

The Shockers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a neutral court dog of 6 points or less or PK.  The Shockers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  This is more of a mismatch than this 4-point spread indicates as I expect the Wildcats to dominate from the outset.  Roll with Kentucky Sunday.

20* Michigan/Louisville Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -2.5

The Michigan Wolverines are the 'flavor of the week' right now.  Everyone was on them against Oklahoma State in the first round, and they were fortunate to win that game 92-91, but failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites.

Now I can't help but think the Wolverines are out of gas.  They played four games in four days to win the Big Ten Tournament, and then played one of the most entertaining, up-tempo games of the opening round with their 183-point tussle with the Cowboys.

Now the Wolverines will be up against a Louisville team that forces you to expend a ton of energy trying to beat their press.  And with only one day to prepare for the Cardinals, that won't be enough.  Derrick Walton Jr. is having a tremendous run at the PG position, but he'll be in over his head in trying to beat this Louisville press Sunday.

The Cardinals are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.  Louisville is 11-4 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Cardinals are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Big Ten opponents.  Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. ACC foes.  Take Louisville Sunday.

20* Iowa State/Purdue Late-Night BAILOUT on Iowa State ML +103

I've been backing the Iowa State Cyclones as much as any team in the country over the last several weeks, and I've had tremendous success doing so.  The Cyclones are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and playing as well as any team in the country.

In previous years, facing a team like Purdue with so much size would have been a problem for the Cyclones.  But that's not the case this year as they have gotten significant contributions from unsung heroes in forwards Darrell Bowie and Solomon Young inside.  These two do the dirty work, while the other guys get all the credit.

And boy do the Cyclones have some stars.  They play six seniors regularly, and I love their veteran leadership.  Monte Morris (16.4 ppg, 6.1 apg, 4.9 rpg) is one of the best point guards in the country, Naz Mitrou-Long (15.4 ppg) is an elite shooter, Deonte Burton (14.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) can do it all both inside and outside, and Matt Thomas (12.1 ppg, 44.4% 3-pointers) is a steady leader.  The Cyclones have four guys on the court at all times who shoot 37% or better from 3-point range, which makes them perhaps the most difficult team to guard in the tournament.

The Cyclones are 7-0 ATS as a neutral court dog of 6 points or less or PK over the last three seasons.  Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 198

Recent meetings between the Spurs and Grizzlies indicate that the oddsmakers have really inflated this total tonight.  I don't think the Spurs and Grizzlies combined to score anywhere near 198 points Saturday.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  They have combined for 163, 211, 183, 162, 180 and 188 points in the last six meetings, respectively.  That's an average of just 181.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 198.

Memphis is 15-3 UNDER vs. teams who make 39% or more of their 3-point attempts over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 13-6-1 in Spurs last 20 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Grizzlies last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* West Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona -5

The Arizona Wildcats are a legitimate national title contender this season.  They were the best team in the Pac-12 in the regular and postseasons, and they are clearly one of the best teams in the tournament.  Now they're only laying 5 points in the Round of 32 against St. Mary's, and I expect this to be a blowout in the Wildcats' favor.

St. Mary's is one of the most overrated teams in the tournament.  They had an extremely easy schedule outside of Gonzaga, and we saw what happened when they took a step up in class and faced the Bulldogs three times this year.  They lost by 23 at Gonzaga, by 10 at home, and by 18 in the WCC Championship.  Arizona is similar to Gonzaga in build and talent, if not better.

Arizona is 7-0 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three against the spread this season.  St. Mary's is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% after 15 or more games ove r the last three seasons.  The Gaels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  The Wildcats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4

Off back-to-back losses to Cleveland and Utah, the Detroit Pistons will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight against Toronto.  The Pistons are currently tied for the 8th seed in the East and can't afford to lose at home.

Detroit has been a solid home team all season, going 22-13 SU & 21-14 ATS on the year.  The Pistons are 36-18 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.

The Toronto Raptors have been a mess since Kyle Lowry went down with an injury.  They are 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They just lost to Oklahoma City 102-123 at home last night, so they'll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well.

Toronto is 7-23 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Raptors are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* Seton Hall/Arkansas South Region No-Brainer on Seton Hall +1

The Seton Hall Pirates certainly know how to finish.  They won the Big East Tournament last year with an upset over Villanova that they needed just to get into the NCAA Tournament.  And this year, they were on the bubble in late-February before going 5-1 over their final six games.

The last three games have been the most impressive and show what the Pirates are capable of.  They won at Butler 70-64 as 8.5-point dogs, beat Marquette 82-76 as 1.5-point dogs in their first game of the Big East Tournament, then gave Villanova all they wanted in a 53-55 loss at 11.5-point dogs.

I think the loss to Villanova was a good thing because it showed they could play with one of the best teams in the country, but it also gave them some extra rest coming into the tournament having last played on Friday, March 10th.  And the Pirates have one of the best trios in the country in Khadeem Carrington (16.9 ppg), Desi Rodriquez (15.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Angel Delgado (15.3 ppg, 13.1 rpg) that can lead them on a run in the NCAA Tournament.
 
Arkansas improved quite a bit this season under Mike Anderson and finished strong.  They made it all the way to the SEC Championship Game.  There they were overmatched in a 65-82 loss to Kentucky.  And I think that run took a lot out of them as they had to play on Sunday, March 12th, which means the Pirates have had two more days off than them.

Seton Hall is 8-1 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days' rest over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 9-0 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less over the past two seasons.  The Pirates are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog.  Seton Hall is 40-19 ATS in its last 59 games as a dog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Razorbacks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.  Arkansas is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  Bet Seton Hall Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +12.5

The Baylor Bears peaked in late-January, but they have just been a mediocre team since.  They are just 5-6 SU & 5-6 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  This is a team that has struggled in the NCAA Tournament the past few years, and they certainly aren't trending in the right direction this year, either.

New Mexico State (28-5) is a live underdog.  The Aggies only suffered five losses all season, and four of them came by 13 points or fewer.  They were competitive in non-conference road losses at Colorado State and New Mexico, two of the best teams in the Mountain West.  They won at UTEP 79-68 and at Arizona State 81-80 as well.

Baylor likes to overwhelm teams with its size, but the Aggies won't be overwhelmed here.  They have two solid big men in Eli Chuha (12.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg) and Jemerrio Jones (9.9 ppg, 8.5 rpg).  They also have two outstanding guards in Ian Baker (16.6 ppg, 4.1 apg) and Braxton Huggins (13.6 ppg, 42.2% 3-pointers).  These four can lead the upset.

Baylor is 1-8 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs WAC opponents.  Baylor is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games as a favorite.  Roll with New Mexico State Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma State +2.5

The Michigan Wolverines are the 'flavor of the week' right now after winning the Big Ten Tournament.  They suffered a near-death experience when their plane came to a halt on the runway before they were getting ready to take off for the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan got on a different flight and showed up just hours before their game against Illinois.  They used that near-death experience to their advantage and played their best basketball of the season, winning four games in four days.  But I think that run took a lot out of them as they played on Sunday.  And they won't be playing with that same intensity in the NCAA Tournament because they won't have much gas left in the tank.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State last played on Thursday in a loss to Iowa State.  So the Cowboys have had extra time to prepare and will be the fresher team.  They are getting overlooked now after losing each of their final three games of the season by single-digits to Iowa State (twice) and Kansas. 

But this is a team that had gone 10-1 in its previous 11 games.  And they have been the most efficient offensive team in the country since January 21st. Most think it's UCLA, but it's actually Oklahoma State.  Not to mention, according to KenPom, the Cowboys have played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country this season.

Oklahoma State has won some impressive road games this season.  It won at Wichita State 93-76), at Texas Tech 83-64, at West Virginia 82-75, at TCU 71-68 and at Kansas State 80-68.  This team certainly isn't afraid to go on the road and give a big effort as they went 9-7 SU & 11-5 ATS in all road games this season.

Oklahoma State is 10-1 ATS in road games versus excellent ball handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.  Take Oklahoma State Friday.

20* Nevada/Iowa State Late-Night BAILOUT on Iowa State -6

The Iowa State Cyclones have won the Big 12 Tournament three of the last four years.  A few seasons ago, they were riding high and then were upset by UAB in the opening round.  This senior-laded squad with six seniors who play significant minutes remembers that defeat, and they won't fall victim to overlooking Nevada this time around.

I believe Iowa State has as good a chance to make the Final Four as any team not among the Top 3 seeds in this tournament.  I love that senior leadership, and this is a red hot team having gone 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The only loss came on the road at West Virginia, where nobody seems to win, and they avenged that loss with an 80-74 victory over the Mountaineers in the Big 12 Championship Game.

In previous years, being the best team in the Mountain West would have been a heck of an accomplishment.  But this conference was worse this season than any I can remember in history.  So the Wolf Pack don't deserve much credit for winning the MWC.  They lost by 18 at St. Mary's in non-conference, and they went 1-1 against Iona, which were the two teams they faced this season that will be in the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa State is 10-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 9-1 ATS in road games after having won three of their last four games over the past two seasons.  The Wolf Pack are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as an underdog.  This game will be played in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, so Iowa State will have a decisive home-court advantage here.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

25* East Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech +5.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They went 22-10 this year and finished 10-8 in the toughest conference in the country in the ACC.  They went 17-11 ATS in all lined games, including 10-5 ATS in road lined games.

Buzz Williams is one of my favorite head coaches in the country because he gets the most out of his players.  And Williams has done just that at Virginia Tech, taking over a Hokies team a few years ago that was coming off three straight last-place finishes in the ACC.

Wisconsin was the preseason favorite to win the Big Ten, but it has been overrated all season.  The Badgers finished 25-9 overall and didn't even win the Big Ten.  They went 6-11 ATS in all road lined games.  And the Badgers finished terribly, going 4-6 SU in their last 10 games, and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 contests.

The Badgers lost to Michigan 56-71 in the Big Ten Championship Game on Sunday.  That leaves them with less time to prepare for Virginia Tech, and they clearly won't be as fresh.  The Hokies last played on Thursday, March 9th in a hard-fought 68-74 loss to Florida State.  They have now had a full week off to get prepared.

My biggest reason for picking the Hokies here is the matchup advantage.  The Hokies led the ACC in 3-point shooting this season, and they were 9th in the country, hitting 40.3% from deep on the season.  Wisconsin ranks 306th in the country in defending the 3-pointer, allowing 37.7% from distance on the season.  I think VA Tech's small ball is a matchup nightmare this slow, lengthy Wisconsin squad.

VA Tech is 18-3 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.  The Hokies are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog.  The Badgers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Atlanta Hawks trail the Toronto Raptors by two games for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.  They have been coming on strong with a 3-1 record in their last four games with their only loss coming on the road at San Antonio by eight points.

The Hawks have had two days off since losing in San Antonio on Monday, so they'll be fresh and ready to go tonight.  The same cannot be said for the Memphis Grizzlies, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here tonight after a 98-91 win in Chicago.  They won't be able to match the effort put forth by the Hawks tonight.

Atlanta has clearly had Memphis' number in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Hawks are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings, winning by 17 points on the road, by 12 points at home and by 15 points on the road.  They have outscored the Grizzlies by a combined 44 points in those three meetings, or an average of nearly 15 points per game.

Memphis is 1-9 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.  The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs a team with a winning record.  The Hawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six Thursday games.  These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing Atlanta.  Roll with the Hawks Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2

I know the Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here today, but oddsmakers have over-adjusted for it.  There's now value with the Pacers laying only two points at home to the Charlotte Hornets tonight.

The Pacers are one of the better home teams in the NBA, going 23-10 at home this season.  The Hornets are just 11-23 on the road this year.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, including a 110-94 Indiana victory in their last home meeting earlier this season.

The Hornets just can't get anything going.  They are 6-17 in their last 23 games overall.  They certainly don't deserve the respect they are getting from oddsmakers after losing back-to-back home games to the Pelicans and Bulls coming in.

Charlotte is 2-13 ATS after playing two consecutive home games this season.  Indiana is 12-3 ATS in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  The Hornets are 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  Take the Pacers Wednesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on UNC-Greensboro +13

Four days after Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim angered and entire city by saying there was "no value" in the ACC holding its postseason tournament in Greensboro, it was announced that UNC-Greensboro will get its shot at the Orange in the first round of the NIT Wednesday.

A church organization in Greensboro has been selling shirts that read, "Greensboro vs. Boeheim."  And there's no question that Syracuse doesn't want to be in the NIT as it was one of the first teams left out of the NCAA Tournament.  This is a team that made a run to the Final Four last year and could care less about the NIT a season later.

"When you're on the bubble, you can miss, for whatever reason," Boeheim said. "It's heartbreaking because everything today is about the NCAA tournament. It's not just us. There's 20 brokenhearted teams out there that wish they had done one thing better."

Syracuse is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games off a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  Greensboro is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  The Orange are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The Orange have losses to UConn, Georgetown and St. John's out of conference this season.  Bet UNC-Greensboro Wednesday.

15* 76ers/Warriors NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +17

The Golden State Warriors continue to be overvalued here Tuesday.  They are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games since losing Kevin Durant to an injury.

Now they're being asked to lay a whopping 17 points against a Philadelphia 76ers team that just keeps covering.  The 76ers are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games overall.  They have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a winning record.

And the 76ers are going to want revenge from a 108-119 home loss to the Warriors on February 27th in which they covered as 14-point underdogs.  The Warriors had Durant for that game, but they won't for the rematch.  And the Warriors are in a tough spot here as this is their first home game following a stretch in which they played seven of eight games on the road.

The 76ers are 19-6 ATS when revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.  Philadelphia is 25-6 ATS off a road game this season.  The 76ers are 11-0 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring at least 106 points per game in the second half of the season this season.  The Warriors are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the 76ers Tuesday.

20* Hawks/Spurs TNT Monday No-Brainer on Atlanta +6.5

The San Antonio Spurs are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They are coming off a huge win over the Golden State Warriors, but now they are in a letdown spot tonight.  Plus, the Warriors were without their five best players in game game, so it wasn't too big of a feat.

And the Spurs have a bunch of injury concerns right now.  LaMarcus Aldridge is out indefinitely, Tony Parker is expected to miss this game, and Kawhi Leonard is questionable with a concussion.  Whether or not Leonard plays, the Spurs should not be 6.5-point favorites here.

The Atlanta Hawks are coming on strong, winning three straight coming in.  They are currently the No. 5 seed in the East, just one game behind Toronto for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  Look for them to clamp down and try and get that home court, which is exactly what their goal is.

The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  San Antonio is 1-7 ATS in its last eight Monday games.  Bet the Hawks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -5

The Indiana Pacers have been a tremendous home team this season.  They are 22-10 on their home court and will be happy to be back home here after playing six of their previous seven games on the road.

This is a tough spot for the Miami Heat, who will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a win over Toronto at home yesterday.  And now they could be without their best player in Goran Dragic, who suffered an eye injury against the Raptors and is doubtful to play tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Indiana and Miami.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings.  The home team has also gone 8-1 ATS in those nine contests.

Indiana is 10-1 ATS in Sunday home games over the past three seasons, outscoring their opponents by 12.5 points per game on average.  The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss by more than 10 points.  These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing Indiana.  Take the Pacers Sunday.

20* Michigan/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship No-Brainer on Wisconsin -2

The Wisconsin Badgers got a wake-up call by losing five out of six games toward the end of the regular season.  But they have been dominant since, beating Minnesota by 17, Indiana by 10 and Northwestern by 28 in their last three games.

You have to give the Michigan Wolverines a ton of credit for making the title game considering the hand they were dealt.  Their plane was delayed and they arrived just hours before the Big Ten Tournament.  All they've done is reel off three straight victories.

However, the Wolverines now have to be out of gas, period.  They will be playing their 4th game in 4 days.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin will only be playing its 3rd game in 3 days after receiving a first-round bye.  And the Badgers didn't need to play their starters big minutes yesterday in their 28-point blowout over Northwestern.

Wisconsin has won 5 of its last 6 meetings with Michigan.  The Badgers are 7-1 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more this season.  The Badgers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Wisconsin Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2

Both the Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight.  However, the difference is that Milwaukee gets to stay at home, while Minnesota has to travel after playing at home last night.

And this is a massive letdown spot for the Timberwolves.  They are coming off arguably their biggest win of the season, a sweet 103-102 home victory over the Golden State Warriors.  There's no question they will have a hard time getting up for Milwaukee after that win, and I don't expect them to show up at all tonight.

The Bucks have been on a mission to make the playoffs since the All-Star Break.  They have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Not only are they winning, they are dominating, winning all five games by 7 points or more, and four by double-digits.

The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days' rest.  Milwaukee is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Minnesota.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Bucks Saturday.

20* Iowa State/WVU Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on Iowa State +3

The Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City is known as 'Hilton South' because of its close proximity to Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa.  Cyclone fans travel extremely well to this tournament, essentially making it a home game for them.

Players cannot help but lay it all on the line with the support their get from their fans in Ames.  And they have responded by going 8-1 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine Big 12 Tournament games.

They beat Oklahoma State 92-83 on Thursday and TCU 84-63 on Friday, so they haven't even been tested and will be fresh for the Championship Game today.  Now they'll be looking for revenge on WVU after losing both regular season meetings with the Mountaineers.  They'll also be going for their 3rd Big 12 title in 4 years.

West Virginia has had a much rougher go of it so far in this tournament.  The Mountaineers failed to cover as 10.5-point favorites in a 63-53 win over Texas, and were lucky to escape with a 51-50 victory over Kansas State as 5.5-point favorites yesterday.

Iowa State is 9-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less over the last three years.  The Mountaineers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Saturday games.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Pistons UNDER 211

The Detroit Pistons have been a great defensive team at home this season.  They are giving up just 99.7 points per game at home, and the UNDER is 19-14 in all of their home games this year.  I believe the books have set the bar too high today with this 211-point total against the Knicks.

Recent head-to-head history in this series also suggests there's a ton of value with the UNDER.  They have combined for 207, 191 and 191 points in their last three meetings.  In fact, they have combined for 207 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 14 of their last 15 meetings.  That's a 14-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's 211-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Wizards/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +8

The Sacramento Kings are showing excellent value as 8-point home underdogs to the Washington Wizards tonight. The betting public wants nothing to do with the Kings after trading DeMarcus Cousins, but they have been competitive without him, and there lines have been inflated as a result.

The Wizards went into the All-Star Break on fire, but they came out of the break way overvalued because of it, and they continue to be here as 8-point road favorites.  The Wizards are just 3-5 ATS since the break.  They are in a tough spot here as they will be playing their 3rd straight road game in the midst of a 5-game trip.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Washington is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games off two consecutive road wins.  The Wizards are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Kings Friday.

15* Atlantic 10 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond -2.5

The Richmond Spiders closed the regular season strong by going 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their final 11 games, including four straight victories to end it.  Now they've had nearly a week off to get ready for George Washington.

The same cannot be said for the Colonials, who played yesterday in a 53-46 victory over Saint Louis in their first tournament game.  Now they will be the more tired team here and won't be able to match the Spiders' intensity.

Richmond has owned George Washington this season, sweeping the season series with a 7-point road win and a 9-point home victory.  I think this is a very generous 2.5-point spread given the season sweep and the rest advantage for the Spiders.

Richmond is 6-0 ATS off a conference home win this season.  The Colonials are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine Friday games.  The Spiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games as a favorite.  The Spiders are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Richmond Friday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -4

The Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City is known as 'Hilton South' because of its close proximity to Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa.  Cyclone fans travel extremely well to this tournament, essentially making it a home game for them.

Players cannot help but lay it all on the line with the support their get from their fans in Ames.  And they have responded by going 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight Big 12 Tournament games.  They beat Oklahoma State 92-83 yesterday.

TCU is coming off its biggest win of the season, an 85-82 upset of No. 1 seed Kansas yesterday.  I think it's going to be emotionally tough to come back and play well off such a huge win.  And the Horned Frogs were aided by the fact that Josh Jackson was suspended for the Jayhawks yesterday.

The Horned Frogs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bets on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (IOWA ST) - an explosive offensive team (76 PPG or more) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more three straight games are 66-29 ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Iowa State Friday.

15* Big 12 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +4.5

The Kansas State Wildcats find themselves squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  A win over Baylor here would probably get them in, so they won't be lacking any motivation.

I like the fact that the Big 12 Tournament is played in Kansas City, which will clearly give the Wildcats a home-court edge.  They didn't need home court when they went on the road and beat Baylor 56-54 as 7-point road dogs in their last meeting.

And the Wildcats are playing well here down the stretch, beating TCU 75-74 on the road and thumping Texas Tech 61-48 at home to close out the regular season.  Baylor has been playing mediocre basketball for weeks, going just 5-5 SU in its last 10 contests.

Kansas State is 7-1 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  The Wildcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Bears are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.  The underdog is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Take Kansas State Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Pistons UNDER 217.5

Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this battle between Cleveland and Detroit tonight.  I expect a low-scoring affair that doesn't even come close to exceeding this 217.5-point total.

The Cavs are missing offensive punch right now as Kevin Love, J.R. Smith and Kyle Korver are all expected to miss this game.  Cleveland has been held to 102 or fewer points in five of its last six games overall.  That trend should continue here against a Detroit team that only gives up 99.6 points per game at home this season.

A look at the recent head-to-head history shows that this total has been inflated as well.  The Cavs and Pistons have combined for 207 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight straight meetings.  They have combined for 196, 185, 198, 192, 197, 207, 206 and 184 points in those eight meetings, respectively.

This makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 217.5.  They have averaged just 195.6 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 22 points less than tonight's posted total.  That's a ton of value on the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* VA Tech/FSU ACC No-Brainer on Florida State -6

There's no question that the 99-90 win over Wake Forest took a lot out of Virginia Tech yesterday.  The Hokies are already playing short-handed without one of their best players in Chris Clarke, who was recently out for the season with an ACL injury.

And now the Hokies won't have much left to give against a Florida State team that had a double-bye into the ACC Tournament.  I'll gladly back the fresher Seminoles here at this short price today.

FSU thumped Virginia Tech 93-78 as 9-point home favorites in their lone meeting this season.  This is a team that I believe has the talent to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, and they're going to take this ACC Tournament seriously as they try and improve their seeding.  The Seminoles are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Roll with Florida State Thursday.

15* Big East Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -6

The Butler Bulldogs had yesterday off to rest up and watch their opponent today in Xavier.  The Musketeers struggled against DePaul, eventually winning 75-64 in what was a much closer game than the final score indicated.

The Musketeers are playing short-handed right now.  Only seven players played yesterday, and three of them played at least 36 minutes.  That puts them at a severe disadvantage here against a Butler team that has already beaten them 83-78 at home and 88-79 on the road.

Xavier's injuries have taken their toll down the stretch.  The Musketeers are just 2-6 SU in their last eight games and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Their only two wins have come against DePaul (twice), while their six losses have all come by 7 points or more.

Xavier is 1-9 ATS as an underdog this season.  Butler is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  The Bulldogs are 39-11-2 ATS in their last 52 neutral site games.  Bet Butler Thursday.

25* ACC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisville -2.5

The Louisville Cardinals have a huge advantage over the Duke Blue Devils in rest here having not played yesterday.  Meanwhile, Duke played in a grueling 79-72 win over Clemson.  Duke is already short-handed and won't handle this back-to-back situation very well.

Making matters worse for the Blue Devils is that the Cardinals are a pressing team that force you to exert more energy than you're used to just to get the ball past the half-court line.  I think that will take its toll on this short-handed Duke team, and the end result will be a blowout in Louisville's favor.

Louisville is 9-1 ATS after outrebounding its last opponent by 15 or more boards.  The Blue Devils are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Blue Devils are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win.  The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  Louisville is 19-13 ATS in its last 42 neutral site games, while Duke is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 neutral site affairs.  Bet Louisville Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +4

The Miami Heat are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back wins over the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers in a home-and-home situation.  It's only human nature for them to not show up tonight against the Charlotte Hornets off those two monstrous wins.

And the Hornets aren't a team to be taken lightly with the way they are playing right now.  They are chasing down a playoff spot in the East and have gone 4-2 in their last six contests.  One of the losses was a 3-point road loss to the Clippers in OT.  They beat Indiana by 12 at home and Denver by 10 on the road in their last two contests.

The Heat are dealing with a plethora of injuries that could hold them back tonight.  Tyler Johnson, James Johnson and Luke Babbitt are all questionable for the Heat.  Charlotte has owned Miami this season with a 2-0 record and a 9-point home win as well as a 6-point road victory.

Charlotte is 11-2 ATS in road games after leading in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half over the last three seasons.  Miami is 17-33 ATS after having won three of its last four games over the past three seasons.  The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday.

25* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on TCU -2.5

This is a rematch from the final game of the regular season in which Oklahoma beat TCU 73-68 at home.  Now they face each other four days later on a neutral court in the Big 12 Tournament, and I'm backing the Horned Frogs to get revenge in a big way.

The Horned Frogs are much better than their 17-14 record this season as they have been snake-bitten all year in close games.  They have lost seven straight coming in, but four of those losses have come by 5 points or less.  They have a chance to right the ship now here in this Big 12 Tournament.

Lon Kruger is 5-15 ATS in March road games as the coach of Oklahoma.  The Sooners are just 1-9 in all road games this season.  The Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Bet TCU Wednesday.

15* Big Ten Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -1

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have quit.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, losing all four games by 15 points or more.  That includes their 57-83 laugher at home against Michigan in the season finale on Senior Day.

Penn State also enters the Big Ten Tournament on a 5-game losing streak, but it has at least been competitive against some quality teams.  The Nittany Lions lost by 4 to Purdue, by 10 at Minnesota, by 1 to Ohio State and by 11 at Iowa.

Penn State is 59-38 ATS in its last 97 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. losing teams.  The Nittany Lions are 12-3-1 ATS int heir last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Cornhuskers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Penn State Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Thunder NBA TV No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -6

Off three straight road losses, the Oklahoma City Thunder return home highly motivated for a victory to end this skid.  They are 23-8 at home this season and have won seven of their last eight home contests with their only loss coming to the Warriors.

Now they face an overrated Portland Trail Blazers team that is coming off two straight home wins, but now hits the road where they are just 10-22 SU & 11-21 ATS on the season.  They have lost three of their last four road games all by 6 points or more.

Adding to the Thunder's motivation tonight is the fact that they just recently lost to the Blazers within the last week 109-114 on the road on March 2nd.  Now they will be out for revenge in the rematch at home.

The home team is a perfect 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Thunder are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Blazers, winning those four contests by an average of 16.3 points per game.  Expect another home blowout for OKC tonight.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +2

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They need to win at least a couple games in this ACC Tournament to get in, and I expect them to start that mission with success tonight against Pittsburgh.

The Yellow Jackets have been undervalued all season in ACC play, and they are again lacking the respect they deserve here as underdogs.  They are 8-10 SU but 12-6 ATS in ACC action this season.  One of those was a 61-52 home victory as 1.5-point favorites over this same Pitt squad.

The Panthers are just 4-14 SU & 9-9 ATS in ACC play this season.  They didn't play with much effort down the stretch as they went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games.  They lost by 18 to UNC, by 9 to Georgia Tech and by 25 to Virginia in their final three games of the season.

Georgia Tech is 8-1 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season.  Pitt is 0-6 ATS in March games over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a favorite.  The Yellow Jackets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.  The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Georgia Tech Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

Both the Orlando Magic and New York Knicks will be playing the second of a back-to-back after losses in Washington and New York yesterday, respectively.  But I like this spot a lot more for the Magic than I do for the Knicks.

The reason is that the Knicks will suffer an emotional letdown here.  They just played the Golden State Warriors at home yesterday, and they certainly won't be able to get up for the Magic like they were for the Warriors.  I look for them to come out flat as a pancake tonight.

I backed the Magic yesterday as 12.5-point dogs in a 114-115 road loss to the Wizards in a game they should have won.  I like the way they are playing of late as they are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat the Hawks by 19 at home and the Heat by 11 at home despite being underdogs in both games.

Strangely, the other loss besides the Wizards came at home to these same Knicks on March 1st.  However, I think that makes this a great spot to back the Magic because they will be out for revenge from that defeat.  There's no question in my mind Orlando will be the more motivated team in this game as a result.

The Knicks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on 0 days' rest.  New York is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 Monday games.  Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last six Monday games.   Bet the Magic Monday.

15* MAC Tournament ANNIHILATOR on Central Michigan +8.5

Central Michigan could not possibly be more undervalued than it is right now heading into the MAC Tournament.  That's because the Chippewas were awful to finish the regular season, going 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Now the Chippewas find themselves catching a whopping 8.5 points on the road against a Kent State team that they already beat 105-98 as 6.5-point road dogs in their first meeting this season.  I think they have the potential to pull off the upset again here tonight.

Kent State has been winning, but it hasn't been winning by margins.  In fact, each of the Golden Flashes' last eight victories have all come by 8 points or less.  They haven't won any of their last 12 games by more than 8 points, making for a perfect 12-0 system going against them pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.  The Golden Flashes are 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Take Central Michigan Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +10.5

The Washington Wizards are way overvalued right now.  They were on fire entering the All Star Break, but they have been lackluster since, yet they are still getting treated like one of the best teams in the league as double-digit favorites here over the Orlando Magic.

The  Wizards are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their five games since the break.  They have lost two home games during this stretch to Utah (by 10) and Toronto (by 8).  They also lost on the road to Philadelphia (by 8).  I don't think the way they're playing right now warrants them being double-digit favorites here.

The Magic have come back from the break with new life and determination.  They have won two of their last three outright as underdogs.  The beat Atlanta (by 19) as 3.5-point home dogs and Miami (by 11) as 4.5-point home dogs.

This has been a closely contested series as each of the last four meetings have been decided by 8 points or less.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Magic won 124-116 as 2.5-point dogs in their lone trip to Washington earlier this season.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* Purdue/Northwestern Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +4

The Purdue Boilermakers have already clinched the Big Ten regular season title and No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.  They literally have nothing to play for here Sunday, while the Northwestern Wildcats are still trying to punch their tickets to the NCAA Tournament.

The Wildcats will bring a lot of emotion and energy to this game Sunday.  They are trying to become the first team in program history to make the NCAA Tournament.  It's Senior Day, and Welsh-Ryan Arena will be shut down after the game for a major renovation expected to take more than a year.

Northwestern is 14-3 at home this season.  Purdue is just 5-4 in true road games.  The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games.  Northwestern is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games overall.  Take Northwestern Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Timberwolves +8

The San Antonio Spurs are in a brutal spot here.  They just recently concluded their eight-game rodeo road trip, and they haven't been sharp in their two games since.  They only beat Indiana 100-99 as 10-point favorites and needed overtime to beat New Orleans 101-98 as 6-point favorites.

That overtime game is important because the Spurs will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  Both Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge played 40 minutes last night against the Pelicans.  Don't be surprised if Greg Popovich either rests some starters or limits their minutes here.

Don't look now but the Timberwolves are playing some great basketball.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They won at Denver by 13, beat Dallas at home by 13, won at Sacramento by 14 and won at Utah by 27.  Now they have had two days off since that blowout win over the Jazz having last played on Wednesday.

Minnesota is 29-13 ATS in road games when revenging a loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 17-6 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* Kansas/Oklahoma State Big 12 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State PK

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are playing as well as anyone in the country right now.  They have gone 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Their only losses during this stretch have come by 3 to Baylor and by 3 at Iowa State, which are two of the top teams in the conference.

Now the Cowboys want to end the regular season on a high note with a home victory over the Kansas Jayhawks on Senior Day.  They'll obviously be highly motivated to win this game, especially after hanging tough in an 80-87 loss at Kansas in their first meeting.

I think this is an extreme flat spot for the Jayhawks, who have already wrapped up the Big 12.  The Jayhawks were lackluster in a 73-63 home win over Oklahoma last time out as 14.5-point favorites.  They actually trailed in that game in the second half.  I don't expect them to be playing with a sense of urgency today, either.

Oklahoma State is a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 points or more over the last three seasons.  Kansas is 3-10 ATS following six or more consecutive wins this season.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech -2

For whatever reason, Virginia Tech continues to lack the respect it deserves when playing at home.  The Hokies are 15-1 at home this season and now they're only laying 2 points to a mediocre Wake Forest team today.

They are only laying 2 points despite the fact that they have been underdogs in each of their last three home games, yet won all three outright over Virginia, Clemson and Miami.  Now they're up against a Wake Forest team that is just 4-8 SU & 4-8 ATS in true road games this year.

Wake Forest is 2-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Demon Deacons are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games following an ATS win.  The Hokies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Virginia Tech is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* Spurs/Pelicans ESPN Friday No-Brainer on New Orleans +7

The New Orleans Pelicans were a little lost in their first few games back from the break.  They had to implement DeMarcus Cousins into the lineup, and while he and Anthony Davis have put up monster numbers, they have been asked to do too much.

I think having Cousins suspended for their last game helped the rest of the players know that they needed to step up their games.  And they did just that in a dominant 109-86 win over Detroit.  Now Cousins returns to the lineup tonight and I look for them to play well again here as 7-point home dogs to the Spurs.

San Antonio just finished up its 8-game Rodeo Road Trip.  The Spurs were flat in their first game back home, barely escaping with a 100-99 win over Indiana as 10-point favorites.  Now they're being asked to lay too big of a number here in their first game back on the road tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series, especially for the Pelicans.  The home team is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Pelicans are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Spurs.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* Iowa State/WVU ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State +8

The Iowa State Cyclones continue to get no respect from oddsmakers here as 8-point road underdogs to the West Virginia Mountaineers.  This despite the fact that they are playing their best basketball of the season coming in, and at 12-5 in Big 12 play, can secure second place alone in the conference with a win here tonight.

The Cyclones are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes outright road wins as underdogs at Kansas, Kansas State and Texas Tech.  Iowa State has actually won a whopping five Big 12 road games this season, which is very impressive in arguably the toughest conference in the country.

The Cyclones are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.  Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.  The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.  Take Iowa State Friday.

20* Cal/Utah ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -1.5

The Utah Utes are showing excellent value as small 1.5-point home favorites over the Cal Bears tonight.  The Utes are 12-3 at home this season, while the Bears are just 3-4 in true road games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  And Cal beat Utah 77-75 at home in their first meeting this season, so the Utes will be in clear revenge mode here tonight.

Utah is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Golden Bears are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Utes are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Utah Thursday.

15* Warriors/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago +8

The Chicago Bulls have a way of playing to their level of competition.  They struggle against poor teams, but do very well against good teams, as indicated by the fact that they are 3-0 against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers this year with three outright upsets.

Now they take on the Golden State Warriors tonight.  I can't believe the Warriors are laying 7.5 points on the road to the Bulls here considering they will be without their best player in Kevin Durant, who suffered a hyperextended knee on Tuesday in the second of a back-to-back against the Wizards.

So the Warriors will now be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  Meanwhile, the Bulls will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  And the Bulls will clearly be motivated to bounce back from an ugly 125-107 loss to Denver last time out.

Chicago is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 home games off a loss by 10 points or more.  Golden State is 5-13 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  The Bulls are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Bulls Thursday.

20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston +1.5

The Boston Celtics come into tonight's action highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three of their last four coming in and will certainly be amped up to face the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

They have hung tough in their first two meetings with the Cavaliers this season, both of which were in Cleveland.  They lost by 6 as 10.5-point dogs and by 6 as 6-point dogs.  Now they get the Cavs at home for the first time, and the Celtics are 20-9 at home this season.  Plus, the Cavs are without Kevin Love and JR Smith this go-round.

Bets on home underdogs (BOSTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 50-19 (72.5%) ATS since 1996.  Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games this season.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are trying to chase down a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They have won four of thier last six coming in with their only losses coming to two of the best teams in the NBA in Utah and Cleveland.

The Bucks host the Denver Nuggets tonight, who are in a very tough rest situation.  The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days coming out of the break.  They won't have a lot left in the tank for the Bucks tonight.

The Nuggets are just 11-19 on the road this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  Denver is 1-9 ATS off a road win this season.  The Nuggets are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern PK

The Northwestern Wildcats will be highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost five of their last seven to fall to 20-9 on the season and somewhat in jeopardy of missing the tournament.  Look for them to stem the tide and get a big home win tonight.

Northwestern is 13-3 at home this season.  Meanwhile, Michigan is just 2-7 in true road games.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.

I think the Wolverines come in overvalued due to winning five of their last six, while the Wildcats are undervalued right now.  Plus, this is a letdown spot for Michigan off a huge win over Purdue last time out.  I don't think the Wolverines will want this one as bad as the Wildcats.

Michigan is 0-7 ATS after having won five or six of its last seven games this season.  The Wolverines are 1-8 ATS off two straight conference wins over the last two seasons.  The Wolverines are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Wildcats are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Roll with Northwestern Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech -2

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  This is clearly a must-win game for them tonight, and it's also Senior Night, so they'll be highly motivated for a victory over the Pitt Panthers.

The Yellow Jackets are 14-4 at home this season.  They have pulled off outright upsets over the likes of Syracuse, Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson and North Carolina at home this year.  Getting them as only 2-point favorites over Pitt is a gift here.

The Panthers are just 4-12 in ACC play this season.  They have only won two true road games all season, going 2-6 in them.  They simply don't have a lot to play for right now and won't be playing with a sense of urgency like the Yellow Jackets will be.

Georgia Tech is a perfect 7-0 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season.  The Panthers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 Tuesday games.  The Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Georgia Tech Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are on fire right now.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have beaten Kansas on the road and Baylor at home during this stretch.  This is a team that is hitting on all cylinders right now and should be bigger home favorites over Oklahoma State tonight.

The Cyclones are in second place in the Big 12 right now, so they will be highly motivated to get that No. 2 seed.  Plus, it's Senior Night Tuesday, and this is a senior-laden squad.  In fact, six seniors play significant minutes for this team in Monte Morris, Naz Mitrou-Long, Matt Thomas, Deonte Burton, Merrill Holden and Darrell Bowie.

Oklahoma State is starting to get a lot of love from oddsmakers due to going 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  But the Cowboys haven't played Kansas during this stretch, they lost at home to Baylor, and their only real quality win came against West Virginia on the road.

Iowa State has dominated this series, winning eight straight meetings with Oklahoma State while going 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Cyclones won 96-86 on the road in their first meeting this season.  The Cyclones are 53-20 ATS in their last 73 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  The Cowboys are 15-37-3 ATS in their last 55 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Wizards NBA TV No-Brainer on Washington +7

The Golden State Warriors are in a tough spot here tonight and should not be this heavily favored on the road against the Washington Wizards as a result.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 119-108 win in Philadelphia last night.

The Wizards were red hot going into the break, but they have put together two lackluster performances since the break in a 112-120 road loss to Philadelphia and a 92-102 home loss to Utah.  However, I think those two efforts have them undervalued now, and they will certainly be 'all in' tonight against the Warriors.

The Wizards are 24-8 at home this season, but they have enjoyed one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA over the past couple months.  Indeed, Washington is 19-2 SU in its last 21 home games.  One of the losses was an OT loss to the defending champion Cavaliers in which Lebron James banked in a 3 at the buzzer to force OT.

The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games playing on 0 days' rest.  Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Wizards are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Roll with the Wizards Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +1.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies are the gift that keeps on giving.  They are consistently undervalued by oddsmakers, and that has really been the case down the stretch.  Now they are home dogs to the Miami Hurricanes Monday when they should be the favorites.

All the Hokies have done is go a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won four games outright with their only losses coming by 6 as 6.5-point dogs at Miami and by 4 as 13-point dogs at Louisville.  That also places the Hokies in revenge mode here after losing on the road to the Hurricanes on February 8th.

Miami is in a massive letdown spot here tonight.  The Hurricanes are coming off a huge upset home win over Duke on Saturday and clearly won't be as focused for this game now.  They will be up against a VA Tech team that is 14-1 at home this season.

Miami is 3-11 ATS as a road favorite or PK over the last three seasons.  VA Tech is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a home underdog.  The Hokies are 12-2 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last three seasons.  TheHurricanes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.  Bet Virginia Tech Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +14

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing excellent value Monday night as 14-point home underdogs to the Golden State Warriors.  Of course, the 76ers haven't been getting any credit from oddsmakers all season, so why would they start now?

The 76ers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They are 4-3 SU during this stretch as well with all three losses coming by single-digits.  They beat a very good Washington team 120-112 at home as 9.5-point dogs in their first game back from the break.  Now they'll give the Warriors a run for their money tonight.

Philadelphia has been extremely competitive at home this season, going 14-16 SU & 21-8-1 ATS.  The fans are starting to finally come out to support this team, and it will be close to a packed house tonight with the Warriors coming to town.

The 76ers are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games.  They are 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Warriors, losing by 12 as 21.5-point road dogs, by 3 as 16.5-point home dogs and by 5 as 15.5-point home dogs. Take the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -2.5

The Washington Wizards haven't dropped back-to-back games in nearly two months.  I don't think they are about to start now considering they are playing at home Sunday and will be hungry to bounce back from their loss at Philadelphia in their first game back from the break.

Washington is 18-4 in its last 22 games overall.  The Wizards are a ridiculous 19-1 in their last 20 home games.  Their only loss came to the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers after Lebron James banked in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to force overtime.

Utah is 2-10 ATS as a road underdog this season.  Washington is 8-1 ATS versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Wizards are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games.  Washington is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Sunday games.  The Wizards are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  The Jazz are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier +2

The Butler Bulldogs are primed for a letdown here Sunday.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 74-66 upset road win as 10-point underdogs at Villanova.  They clearly won't be up for this game against Xavier like they were against Villanova.

Conversely, Xavier will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to end a four-game losing streak.  The Musketeers have fallen victim to a brutal schedule with a home game against Villanova, and road losses to Providence, Marquette and Seton Hall during this stretch.

The Musketeers will also be out for revenge from a 78-83 road loss at Butler on January 14th in their first meeting this season.  The Musketeers were also without leading scorer Trevon Blueitt for a few games during their losing streak, but he's back healthy.  And Xavier is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Butler.

Xavier is 11-3 ATS in home games when playing its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Musketeers are 12-2 at home this season.  The Musketeers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.  The Bulldogs are 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Xavier Sunday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona -1

The Arizona Wildcats can pretty much lock up the Pac-12 title with a victory here Saturday at home against UCLA.  They would need to win this game and their next game at lowly Arizona State to win the Pac-12.  That has been their goal all season, and with it now within reach, I look for them to capitalize on it.

Arizona already dominated UCLA 96-85 on the road as 5-point underdogs int heir first meeting this season.  They were the more physical team in that game and outrebounded the Bruins 42-33.  They will have the edge in physicality again, and this time they'll have the support of their home fans.

That's important because Arizona is a perfect 15-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per game on average.  The Wildcats are coming off a 13-point home win over USC.  They are 14-4 SU in their last 18 home meetings with UCLA.

UCLA is 2-8 ATS when revenging a loss vs opponent this season.  The Bruins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  UCLA is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Wildcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2.5

Simply put, the Charlotte Hornets are due.  They have lost five straight and 12 of their last 13 games overall.  They blew a 15-point lead in the 4th quarter at Detroit on Thursday and eventually lost in OT.  They have had several of these excruciating losses during this stretch.

But now the Hornets have a great chance to end this skid against a Sacramento Kings team that just lost their best player in DeMarcus Cousins.  The Denver Nuggets clearly didn't take the Kings seriously on Thursday and lost 100-116.  But the Hornets can't afford to overlook the Kings now if they want to get back in the playoff race.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - off two or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 63-22 (74.1%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Hornets Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -1.5

Quietly, the Iowa State Cyclones are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won road games at Kansas, Kansas State and Texas Tech, while dominating their only two home games during this stretch in a 16-point win over Oklahoma and a 13-point win over TCU.

As most of you should know, Iowa State has one of the best home-court advantages in the country inside Hilton Coliseum.  And now the Cyclones will be out for revenge from their heartbreaking 63-65 loss at Baylor in their first meeting this season on a last-second shot.

Baylor is clearly ripe for the picking right now as the Bears are blowing their shot at a No. 1 overall seed.  Indeed, the Bears are 3-4 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven games.  They lost at home to both Kansas and Kansas State, while also losing on the road to Texas Tech.  Even their 60-54 home win as 13-point favorites over Oklahoma last time out was lackluster.

Iowa State is a sensational 26-4 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Baylor is 1-9 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 trips to Ames, Iowa.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* Oregon State/Cal CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +18

The Cal Golden Bears blew a 16-point lead against Oregon and lost 65-68 on a buzzer-beater by Dillon Brooks.  They were up 10 with four minutes left before committing a ton of turnovers down the stretch to blow it.  I think they'll suffer a hangover from that defeat.

Now the Golden Bears will have to try and get the motivation to face the worst team in the Pac-12 in the Oregon State Beavers just two days later after losing to Oregon on Wednesday.  They beat the Beavers 69-58 as 14-point road favorites on January 21st in their first meeting, and now they're being asked to lay a whopping 18 points in the rematch.

Oregon State has been way undervalued here of late and cashing tickets for bettors willing to back them.  The Beavers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They keep catching huge numbers and covering, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as double-digit underdogs.

The Beavers are 9-1 ATS when revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  Plays on road teams as an underdog or pick (OREGON ST) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, terrible team, winning 20% or less of their games on the season are 218-137 (61.4%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Oregon State Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers +1

The Indiana Pacers come out of the All-Star Break way undervalued due to heading into the break on a 6-game losing streak.  But that was a brutal stretch for them as they had to play 6 games in 9 days against some of the best teams in the NBA in Cleveland (twice), Washington (twice), San Antonio and Milwaukee.

The Pacers will be highly motivated for a win here at home to end this streak, and they'll be feeling refreshed and ready to make a run at the playoffs.  The Pacers have protected their home court well this season, going 20-10 SU in home games.

"We have to be better," said Pacers Coach Nate McMillan. "We lost six games. Of course it was against some tough teams, but it showed us we are not where we need to be. Our focus is on getting better and getting ourselves prepared for Memphis."

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing three or less games in 10 days are 72-36 (66.7%) ATS since 1996.  Memphis is 3-16 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last three seasons.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +8

The Philadelphia 76ers continue to get no respect from oddsmakers despite the fact that they've gone 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall as well coming into the All-Star Break.

The Washington Wizards are now overvalued due to the way they went into the break, winning four straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall.  They are now being asked to lay 8 points on the road here, which is simply too much, and the value is clearly with the home side.

The 76ers have played the Wizards extremely tough in their last two home meetings.  They won their lone home meeting this season 109-102 as 6.5-point dogs.  They only lost 94-99 as 9-point dogs in their final home meeting last season as well.

In fact, Philadelphia is a sensational 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Philadelphia is 10-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 106-plus points per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  These four trends combine for a 31-1 system backing Philadelphia.  Take the 76ers Friday.