15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +127

The Chicago Cubs are showing tremendous value as a home underdog to NL Central rival Cincinnati Tuesday. That's especially the case considering ace Jeff Samardzija gets the ball.

Samardzija has some of the best stuff in baseball. That's evident by the fact that he has struck out 158 batters over 153 1/3 innings. Samardzija has posted a 3.52 ERA in five career starts against Cincinnati.

Homer Bailey has been at his worst away from home this season. The right-hander is 3-8 with a 4.04 ERA in 12 road starts in 2013. Bailey has posted a 4.38 ERA and 1.472 WHIP in 12 career starts against Chicago.

Chicago is 35-21 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. This play falls into a system that is 86-47 (64.7%, +29.2 units) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road teams (CINCINNATI) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. Roll with the Cubs Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Angels +140

The Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees have little to play for the rest of the way with where they sit in the standings. I'll gladly back the dog in this match-up tonight as the Angels are showing excellent value given the circumstances.

Jason Vargas has been an underrated starter throughout his career. The left-hander is 6-4 with a 3.65 ERA over 14 starts this season.

C.C. Sabathia is one of the more overrated starters in the league. He's clearly on the decline, going 9-10 with a 4.73 ERA in 24 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA in his last three starts.

Vargas is a very profitable 17-11 (+14.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 6-1 in Vargas' last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Yankees are 0-6 in Sabathia's last 6 starts. New York is 1-8 in its last 9 games following a win. Take the Angels Tuesday.

15* NL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on San Francisco Giants +125

The San Francisco Giants get the nod Tuesday as a road underdog to the Washington Nationals. Neither team has much to play for at this point, so given the edge the Giants have on the mound I'll gladly back them at this price.

Madison Bumgarner has been a big bright spot in an otherwise forgetful season for San Francisco. The left-hander is 11-7 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 23 starts, including 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last three starts.

Gio Gonzalez is 7-5 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in 23 starts. The left-hander has struggled of late, going 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA and 1.937 WHIP in his last three outings.

Bumgarner is 2-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five career starts against Washington. San Francisco is 13-3 (+11.7 Units) against the money line after a loss by 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Washington is 1-10 (-11.2 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season. The Nationals are 2-9 in their last 11 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Giants are 10-1 in Bumgarner's last 11 Tuesday starts. Bet the Giants Tuesday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Indians -120

The Cleveland Indians finally put an end to their 6-game losing streak with a 6-5 victory over the Angels Sunday. Trailing Detroit by seven games for first place in the AL Central, they cannot afford to start another losing streak tonight.

Cleveland rookie Danny Salazar has impressed in only two starts this season. He has posted a 3.29 ERA and 0.805 WHIP while striking out 17 batters over 13 2/3 innings. He faced two of the toughest lineups in baseball in the Tigers and Blue Jays in those two contests.

Now, Salazar should have no problem shutting down one of the worst lineups in the league. The Minnesota Twins are hitting just .241 and scoring 4.0 runs/game on the season, including .237 and 3.9 against right-handed starters. Cleveland is hitting .271 and scoring 5.2 runs/game against left-handed starters.

Minnesota is 1-10 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in home games revenging a home loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Twins are 2-10 in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. These three trends combine for a 27-3 system backing Cleveland. Bet the Indians Monday.

15* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -113

The Detroit Tigers (69-47) are showing excellent value as a small road favorite over the Chicago White Sox (44-72) Monday. The Tigers are one of the hottest teams in baseball and have a lot to play for, while the White Sox are one of the coldest and have little to play for.

The underrated Doug Fister is having yet another solid season in Detroit. The right-hander is 10-5 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in 23 starts, including 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in his last three starts.

Fister has posted a 3.44 ERA and 1.309 WHIP in eight career starts against Chicago. In his lone start against the White Sox this season, Fister allowed one earned run over eight innings on July 2nd. Chris Sale is 1-4 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in five career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter. Detroit is 26-9 in its last 35 overall. The Tigers are 5-0 in Fister's last 5 starts. The White Sox are 20-48 in their last 68 overall. Chicago is 0-6 in its last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in its previous game. Take the Tigers Monday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +142

The Chicago Cubs clearly are playing out their season. They just took two out of three at St. Louis, and now I look for them to take Game 1 of this series against fellow NL Central foe Cincinnati Monday.

Travis Wood is quietly having an excellent season in Chicago. The left-hander is 7-8 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 23 starts in 2013. The Reds are only hitting .243 and scoring 3.7 runs/game against left-handed starts this year.

Mat Latos is having a solid season for Cincinnati, but he has struggled in his last two starts at Chicago. He has given up seven earned runs and 18 base runners over 11 innings in those two starts for a 5.73 ERA and 1.636 WHIP.

In two career home starts against Cincinnati, Wood has given up just three earned runs and 12 base runners over 14 innings for a 1.93 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. The Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Cubs Monday.

15* Rays/Dodgers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 6.5

The Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers will take part in a pitcher's duel tonight on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. I'll back the UNDER 6.5 runs because of it.

Clayton Kershaw has been the best starter in baseball this season. The left-hander is 10-7 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.878 WHIP in 24 starts this season with the UNDER going 15-9. Kershaw is 6-4 with a 1.59 ERA in 13 home starts, and 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA in his last three starts.

While Jeremy Hellickson isn't having nearly as good of a year, he's plenty good enough to shut down the Dodgers tonight. The right-hander is 10-5 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.249 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The UNDER is 11-10-2 in those starts.

The UNDER is 34-15-2 in Rays last 51 games overall. The UNDER is 15-5-2 in Hellickson's last 22 road starts. The UNDER is 11-1-1 in Dodgers last 13 home games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Kershaw's last 6 starts with a total set of 6.5 or lower. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bills/Colts NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Buffalo +4

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland A's +110

The Oakland A's (65-50) trail the Texas Rangers by one game for first place in the AL West. While Oakland has a lot to play for at this point in the season, Toronto (54-62) does not as it sits in last place in the AL East.

I'll gladly back the underrated A.J. Griffin as an underdog today. Griffin has gone 10-8 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.099 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The right-hander has never lost to Toronto, going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in three career starts against the Blue Jays.

R.A. Dickey simply does not enjoy pitching at home in hitter-friendly Toronto. The knuckleballer is 4-6 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.354 WHIP in 12 home starts this year. He has given up 18 homers at home compared to just 7 on the road. Plus, Dickey is 1-3 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in nine career starts against Oakland.

The A's are 55-23 in their last 78 vs. a team with a losing record. Griffin is 10-4 (+8.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Griffin is 17-4 (+13.6 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Jays are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the A's Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -147

The Los Angeles Dodgers will run away with this one tonight over the Tampa Bay Rays. Los Angeles is the hottest team in baseball having won 34 of its last 42 games overall. After erasing a 6-0 deficit to win 7-6 yesterday, this team clearly has something special going.

With Zach Greinke on the mound, they'll continue this torrid run. Greinke has gone 9-3 with a 3.40 ERA in 19 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA in nine home starts. The Dodgers are 8-1 in those nine starts.

Roberto Hernandez is 6-11 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.299 WHIP in 21 starts this season. Hernandez is 1-7 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.327 WHIP in nine road starts in 2013.

Greinke is 34-4 (+28.4 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Dodgers Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore Orioles -123

The Baltimore Orioles have a lot to play for at 64-51 on the season. The San Francisco Giants have little hope at 51-64 on the year. After a big 5-2 extra innings win last night, I look for the Orioles to come back with another victory in Game 2 Saturday.

Wei-Yin Chen has gone 6-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 13 starts this season for Baltimore, and 3-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in eight road starts.

Chad Gaidin is having a solid season in limited action for the Giants. However, Gaudin is 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Orioles are 4-0 in Chen's last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog. San Francisco is 0-5 in its last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. These four trends combine for a 19-0 system backing Baltimore. Take the Orioles Saturday.

15* NFL Friday Night Line Mistake on Kansas City Chiefs +3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

20* NFL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -1.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NL Friday Mound Mismatch on Miami Marlins +191

The Miami Marlins are showing excellent value as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog to the Atlanta Braves tonight. Given the edge they have on the mound, I look for the Marlins to put an end to Atlanta's 13-game winning streak.

Miami's Jacob Turner has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this year. The right-hander is 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.203 WHIP in 12 starts this season. Turner is also 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta.

Brandon Beachy just recently returned from Tommy John surgery, and he may never be the same. Beachy has been rocked in two starts this year, posting a 9.00 ERA and 1.600 WHIP while allowing 10 earned runs and three homers over 10 innings.

Beachy is 4-10 (-12.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more in his career. Beachy is 5-14 (-13.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents in his career. Bet the Marlins Friday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +154

The Washington Nationals should not be getting this much respect Friday. They were just swept by the Atlanta Braves last series to drop to 54-60 on the season. Had they swept that series, they would have gotten back to .500 on the season. Now, the Nationals are essentially done for.

John Lannan has been an underrated starter throughout his career in this league. He has gone 3-4 with a 4.10 ERA in 12 starts this season. He clearly likes sticking it to his former team, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two starts against the Nationals in 2013.

Dan Haren is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The right-hander is 6-11 with a 5.14 ERA in 20 starts this season. Haren has been at his worst at home this year, going 4-4 with a 6.08 ERA in nine starts.

Haren is 0-4 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.436 WHIP in seven career starts against Philadelphia. In fact, his teams are 0-7 over those seven starts, so he has never beaten the Phillies. Take Philadelphia Friday.

20* Seahawks/Chargers NFL Network BAILOUT on Seattle -2.5

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* NFL Thursday Night Line Mistake on St. Louis Rams +4

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians +147

After losing the first three games of this series, the Cleveland Indians now trail the Detroit Tigers by six games for 1st place in the AL Central. They will be highly motivated to win Game 4 tonight and avoid the sweep.

I like their chances with the underrated Zach McAllister on the mound. The right-hander has been dominant at home this season, going 3-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in seven home starts.

McCallister has also posted an impressive 2.28 ERA in four career starts against Detroit. While Max Scherzer is having a solid season, he has struggled against the Indians in the past. Scherzer has posted a 4.59 ERA in 14 career starts against Cleveland.

The Indians are 10-1 (+10.9 Units) against the money line off 2 straight home losses against division rivals over the last 2 seasons. They are bouncing back to outscore their opponents 6.6 to 3.4 in this spot, or by an average of 3.2 runs/game. Bet Cleveland Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -110

The Texas Rangers have won eight of their last nine games overall to pull within one game of the Oakland A's for the AL West lead. With the edge they have on the mound tonight, the Rangers have an excellent chance to pull even with Oakland should the A's lose to the Reds.

Alexi Ogando is 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA over 13 starts this season. Ogando has never lost to the Angels, going 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Tommy Hanson is simply getting too much respect from the books tonight. The right-hander is 4-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.540 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.597 WHIP in eight home starts.

The Rangers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Texas is 5-0 in Ogando's last 5 starts when its opponent allows 5 runs or more in its previous game. The Angels are 0-8 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Texas. Bet the Rangers Wednesday.

Note - I have changed this selection from a 15* to a 20* play.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Orioles -127

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of this Interleague series Tuesday. The Orioles (61-51) trail the Red Sox by six games for 1st place in the AL East, making this a very important series.

Bud Norris was quietly a solid acquisition for the Orioles at the trade deadline. The right-hander has gone 7-9 with a 3.89 ERA in 22 starts this season. Norris is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in four career starts against San Diego.

Edinson Volquez is one of the worst starters the league has to offer. The right-hander is 8-8 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.591 WHIP In 23 starts this season. Volquez has never beaten Baltimore, going 0-1 (0-3 money line) with a 6.43 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in three career starts against the Orioles.

The Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series. Baltimore is 26-10 in its last 36 games following an off day. The Orioles are 49-22 in their last 71 games following a loss. The Padres are 4-15 in their last 19 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks +111

The Arizona Diamondbacks get the nod Tuesday as a home underdog to the Tampa Bay Rays. Trailing the Dodgers by six games for first place in the NL West, this is a very important series for the Diamondbacks.

Arizona clearly has the edge on the mound tonight with Wade Miley, who is 8-8 with a 3.68 ERA in 22 starts, including 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts. That includes a 7-0 win at Tampa Bay on July 31 as Miley pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings to get the win.

Jeremy Hellickson was Miley's opponent in that July 31 game. Hellickson gave up four earned runs and nine base runners over 4 1/3 innings to take the loss. He has posted a 4.60 ERA in 22 starts this season, including a 4.75 ERA in 10 road starts.

The Rays are 0-4 in Hellicksons last 4 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Arizona is 4-0 in Miley's last 4 home starts. The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 interleague home games. Arizona is 13-3 in its last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland A's +142

The Oakland A's (64-47) are showing some of their best value of the season as a big road underdog to the Cincinnati Reds tonight. After losing four of their last five coming in, the A's are certainly highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series tonight.

Daniel Straily has been solid for Oakland this season, going 6-5 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.198 WHIP in 17 starts. While Mat Latos has posted a better ERA (3.37), he puts more runners on base (1.284 WHIP) than Straily, who has been unlucky this season.

This play falls into a system that is 59-31 (65.6%, +40.3 units) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (CINCINNATI) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL, after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs.

Oakland is 22-8 in its last 30 interleague games. The A's are 15-4 in their last 19 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter, including 6-1 in their last 7 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 interleague games. Roll with the A's Tuesday.

15* Rangers/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this game between the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels. I look for a slug fest between two of the most potent lineups in baseball.

Jerome Williams is in line to get rocked tonight just as he has all season. Williams is 4-7 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.512 WHIP over 15 starts, including 1-5 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in eight home starts.

Martin Perez hasn't been much better, going 3-3 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in nine starts in 2013. He has been at his worst on the road, going 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.519 WHIP in five starts away from home.

The OVER is 5-0 in Angels last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The OVER is 4-0 in Angels last 4 overall. The OVER is 9-2 in Williams' last 11 starts as a home favorite. The OVER is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings, including 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -120

The Washington Nationals are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as a small home favorite with ace Stephen Strasburg on the mound. Atlanta comes in hot, but Strasburg and company will cool the Braves off at home in this one.

Strasburg has posted a 3.04 ERA and 1.082 WHIP over 21 starts this season. He has been virtually unhittable at home, going 4-4 with a 1.68 ERA and 0.880 WHIP in 11 home starts in 2013.

Mike Minor is having a solid season for the Braves, too, but he's no Strasburg. Plus, Minor is 3-2 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in six career starts against Washington.

The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Washington is 35-17 in its last 52 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Nationals Monday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Tigers -113

The Detroit Tigers are showing excellent value as a small road favorite over the Cleveland Indians tonight. Both teams are two of the hottest teams in baseball, but given the edge the Tigers have on the mound, I'll back them Monday.

Anibal Sanchez is 9-7 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 0.95 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in his last three starts. Sanchez is 3-1 with a 1.76 ERA and 1.141 WHIP in five career starts against Cleveland as well.

Corey Kluber has been decent for the Indians, going 7-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in 18 starts and two relief appearances. However, Kluber is 1-3 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.624 WHIP In five career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Detroit is 6-0 in its last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Tigers are 11-1 in their last 12 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. These three trends combine for a 24-1 system backing Detroit. Bet the Tigers Monday.

20* Dolphins/Cowboys HOF Game No-Brainer on Miami -3

No Analysis for Preseason. Team depth, especially QB depth, are two of the biggest factors I use when handicapping the preseason. I also factor in coaching situations and position battles.

15* AL Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Blue Jays/Angels OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels. These are two of the most potent lineups in baseball, and I look for each to get after their opposing pitching staffs today.

Both teams are scoring 4.6 runs/game this season. Mark Buehrle is in line to get rocked in this one. The left-hander is 7-7 with a 4.27 ERA in 22 starts this season, including 2-5 with a 5.76 ERA in 11 road starts.

C.J. Wilson is having a decent year for Los Angeles at 11-6 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.339 WHIP. However, he has struggled of late, giving up 9 earned runs and 22 base runners over 11 innings in his last two starts.

The OVER is 8-1 in Blue Jays last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The OVER is 44-20-2 in Blue Jays last 66 games vs. a left-handed starter. The OVER is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The OVER is 26-12-4 in Wilson's last 42 starts overall. The OVER is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Interleague Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Rays OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this game between the San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays. Both starting pitchers are below-average to say the least, so I look for each lineup to have a big day at the plate in this one.

Guillermo Moscoso is no more than a fill-in starter in this league. He hasn't done that very well of late, either. Moscoso has gone 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs and 30 base runners over 13 1/3 innings.

Roberto Hernandez has been overrated all season for the Rays. The right-hander has gone 6-11 with a 4.71 ERA in 20 starts this year. Hernandez is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in one career start against San Francisco, while Moscoso is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 2.172 WHIP in two career starts against Tampa Bay.

San Francisco is 22-8 OVER (+14.7 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. The Giants are 26-13 OVER (+12.5 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Astros +140

With the edge the Houston Astros have on the mound tonight, I'll gladly back them at this price against the lowly Minnesota Twins Saturday. They'll be hungry to bounce back from an extra innings loss to the Twins last night.

Erik Bedard has pitched pretty well for Houston this season, posting a 4.28 ERA in 21 appearances. The left-hander has been lights out of late, sporting a 2.20 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in his last three starts while striking out 22 batters over 16 1/3 innings.

Kyle Gibson and the Twins are getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers in this one. Gibson is 2-3 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in six starts this year, including 1-1 with a 7.94 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in two home starts.

Minnesota is 11-28 (-18.6 Units) against the money line in home games with a tired bullpen - throwing 13+ innings over the last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Bedard is 11-3 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. The Twins are 1-8 in their last 9 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the Astros Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco Giants +1.5 (+101)

The San Francisco Giants get the nod Saturday against the Tampa Bay Rays. While I believe the Giants will win this game, I'm going to back them on the Run Line as an underdog still for some insurance.

San Francisco has quietly won three straight coming in. Tim Lincecum has lit it up in two of his last three starts, allowing two earned runs over 16 innings. David Price is simply getting too much respect from the books in this one. The left-hander is just 1-4 with a 4.18 ERA in seven home starts this season.

San Francisco is 20-5 against the run line (+13.7 Units) in road games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 40-16 against the run line (+21.9 Units) vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better since 1997.

San Francisco is 30-12 against the run line (+19.4 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +100 or higher since 1997. The Giants are 28-11 against the run line (+17.8 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is +100 or higher since 1997. Roll with San Francisco on the Run Line Saturday.

15* DBacks/Red Sox Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +140

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing tremendous value Saturday as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox. With the edge the DBacks have on the mound in this one, I'll gladly back them at this price.

Patrick Corbin has arguably been the most underrated starter in the entire league this year. Corbin has gone 12-2 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.991 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in his last three starts.

Jake Peavy is getting too much respect from the books tonight. Peavy has gone 8-4 with a 4.27 ERA in 13 starts this year. The right-hander has really struggled of late, posting a 7.05 ERA in his last three starts while allowing five home runs in the process.

The Diamondbacks are 18-3 in Corbin's 21 starts this season. Arizona is 8-1 in Corbin's nine road starts this year. Corbin is 9-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Take the Diamondbacks Saturday.

15* AL Friday Night Line Mistake on Houston Astros +151

The Houston Astros are showing solid value as a big road underdog to the Minnesota Twins tonight. Minnesota (45-60) should not be this heavily favored against anyone.

Houston rookie Jarred Cosart is getting overlooked once again tonight. This guy has been sensational since coming into the league in early July, going 1-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 1.143 WHIP over three starts. He has allowed just two earned runs and 13 hits in 21 innings.

Sam Deduno has been one of Minnesota's better starters this year, but he's clearly being overvalued in this one. Deduno has gone 7-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.271 WHIP in 12 starts this season.

This play falls into a system that is 31-11 (73.8%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (MINNESOTA) - poor AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA>=5.00), after a loss by 4 runs or more. Take the Astros Friday.

20* NL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Colorado Rockies +150

After getting swept by the Atlanta Braves last series, the Colorado Rockies head into this Game 1 Friday highly motivated for a victory. After taking four out of five from rival St. Louis last series, the Pittsburgh Pirates are in a huge letdown spot tonight.

Jhoulys Chacin is not getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers tonight. Chacin is 9-5 with a 3.54 ERA in 20 starts this season, and 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in his last three. Chacin has been at his best away from home this year, going 3-2 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in seven road starts.

Gerrit Cole is getting way too much respect from the books tonight. The rookie hasn't been nearly as dominant as this line would suggest. In fact, Cole is 5-4 with a 3.56 ERA in nine starts, including 3-3 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.387 WHIP in six home starts.

The Rockies are 7-2 in Chacin's last 9 starts overall. Colorado is 6-1 in Chacin's last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Pirates are 1-4 in Cole's last 5 starts overall. Bet the Rockies Friday.

15* Blue Jays/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

The Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels will take part in a slug fest tonight. The books have set this number way too low as two of the most potent offenses in the league will be up against two below-average starting pitchers and bullpens.

Josh Johnson is 1-7 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.568 WHIP in 14 starts this season, 0-4 with a 7.66 ERA and 1.541 WHIP in five road starts, and 0-3 with a 12.51 ERA and 1.829 WHIP in his last three starts.

Garrett Richards is 2-4 with a 4.33 ERA in 35 appearances this season. Richards is 1-2 with a 4.65 ERA in five starts, including 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA in his last three outings. He gave up 10 runs, 5 earned, over 4 1/3 innings in a 2-11 loss at Toronto in his lone career start against the Blue Jays.

Johnson is 14-2 OVER (+11.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1997. Johnson is 16-4 OVER (+12.1 Units) on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997. The OVER is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals +107

The St. Louis Cardinals are more motivated for a victory tonight than at any other point in the season. They have lost the first four games of this series to Pittsburgh, and seven straight overall coming in.

I look for the underrated Joe Kelly to help get them back in the win column tonight. Kelly has gone 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.157 WHIP as a starter this season, including 1-0 with a miniscule 0.77 ERA in two road starts.

Charlie Morton is getting too much respect from the books in this one. Morton has gone 2-7 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.871 WHIP in 11 career starts against St. Louis. This is clearly one team he doesn't enjoy facing.

St. Louis is 15-2 (+13.2 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season. The Cardinals are 37-17 in their last 54 games following a loss. Morton is 1-10 (-9.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +225

The Houston Astros just refuse to give up on their season. They have gotten very hot at the plate of late, scoring a combined 29 runs over their last five contests. That includes an 11-0 outburst against the Orioles last night.

Bud Norris is clearly getting too much respect from the books here. He will have mixed emotions going up against his former team after being traded to Baltimore from Houston yesterday. I believe the advantage goes to the Astros as they'll know what to expect from him.

Jordan Lyles is getting overlooked in this one. He has quietly had a solid season, especially when pitching away from home. Lyles is 1-1 with a 3.95 ERA over seven road starts in 2013. Norris is 0-2 with an 8.47 ERA in his last three starts overall.

The Orioles have lost six of their last eight games overall. Baltimore is 2-8 in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take the Astros Thursday.

25* NL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Cardinals -117

The St. Louis Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory Wednesday against the Pittsburgh Pirates. They have lost the first three games of this series to fall out of first place in the NL Central. I have no doubt they'll bounce back behind ace Adam Wainwright to avoid the sweep tonight.

Wainwright is 13-6 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.027 WHIP in 22 starts this season. The right-hander thrives in these situations, coming through when his team needs him most. That is certainly the case tonight as St. Louis puts an end to its 6-game losing streak overall.

St. Louis is 15-2 (+13.2 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season. Wainwright is 9-1 (+8.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7.5 or less this season.

The Cardinals are 13-3 in Wainwright's last 16 road starts, including 11-2 in his last 13 starts as a road favorite. St. Louis is 37-16 in its last 53 games following a loss. The Cardinals are 62-30 in their last 92 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Bet St. Louis Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati Reds -122

The Cincinnati Reds are highly motivated for a victory Wednesday afternoon. They currently sit in third place in the NL Central at 59-49 after dropping each of their last five games overall heading into this showdown with the San Diego Padres.

Homer Bailey is having a solid year for the Reds in 2013. He has posted a 3.77 ERA and 1.162 WHIP over 21 starts this year. He'll be up against Eric Stults, who has allowed 10 runs, 8 earned, and 21 base runners over 11 innings while losing each of his last two starts.

Bailey is 4-0 with a 4.30 ERA in seven career starts against San Diego. The Reds are 6-1 in those seven contests. The Reds are 41-15 in Bailey's last 56 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The Padres are 1-10 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series. The Padres are 0-4 in Stults' last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. San Diego is 6-14 in its last 20 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take Cincinnati Wednesday.

20* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Reds -149

The Cincinnati Reds come into this game with San Diego highly motivated for a victory. They have lost four straight coming in, including three by exactly one run. It's time to get back in the win column tonight folks.

Ace Mat Latos gets the ball just in time to stop the bleeding. The right-hander is having an excellent year, going 10-3 with a 3.39 ERA in 21 starts, including 4-2 with a 3.29 ERA in 12 road starts.

Latos will be up against Edinson Volquez, who is 8-8 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in 22 starts this season. Volquez is 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in 10 home starts, and 2-1 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.566 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

Latos is 25-5 (+15.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more since 1997. The Padres are 1-6 in Volquez's last 7 home starts. Bet the Reds Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +152

This is a great price for the Colorado Rockies tonight over the Atlanta Braves. After losing Game 1 of this series 8-9 to the Braves, I look for the Rockies to bounce back with a Game 2 victory.

Juan Nicasio is one of the more underrated starters in the league. He has absolutely dominated the opposition of late, going 2-0 with a miniscule 0.47 ERA and 0.632 WHIP in his last three starts. He has allowed just one earned run over 19 innings during that span.

Alex Wood is clearly getting too much respect from the books in this one. Wood is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA and 2.046 WHIP in two starts this season. He has allowed five earned runs and 10 base runners over 7 1/3 innings as a starter this year.

The Rockies are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a loss. The Braves are 1-6 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take the Rockies Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Arizona Diamondbacks +150

The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off a huge 2-1 victory over Boston Monday to take over first place in the AL East Division. Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks had Monday off, so they come in fresh and ready to go.

Tampa is clearly in a big letdown spot here after gaining first place in the AL East. Plus, Roberto Hernandez is once again getting too much respect from the books. Hernandez is 5-11 with a 4.92 ERA in 19 starts this season.

Arizona comes in hungry for a victory after dropping its last two games coming in. The Diamondbacks are 20-11 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is 4-1 in its last 5 meetings with Tampa Bay. Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Night Line Mistake on New York Mets +126

Any time the Miami Marlins are this heavily favored they are worthy of a fade. That's especially the case given who the New York Mets have on the mound in this one.

Zach Wheeler is having a solid season at 4-1 with a 3.72 ERA over seven starts in 2013. He has been absolutely dominant on the road, going 3-0 with a 2.31 ERA in four starts away from home.

Nathan Eovaldi is getting too much respect from the books tonight. He has gone 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA in his last three outings.

New York is 11-3 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. The Mets are 4-0 in Wheeler's last 4 starts as an underdog. Roll with New York Tuesday.

15* Blue Jays/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto +150

The Toronto Blue Jays get the call Monday as a big road underdog to the Oakland A's. Considering I believe the Blue Jays actually have the edge on the mound in this one, I'll gladly back them at this price.

Esmil Rogers is quietly having a solid season for Toronto. The right-hander has gone 2-2 with a 3.49 ERA as a starter this year, including 1-1 with a 1.91 ERA in five road starts.

A.J. Griffin is having a good season for Oakland as well, but he's clearly getting too much respect from the books tonight. Griffin has gone 9-7 with a 3.84 ERA over 21 starts in 2013.

The Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. American League West opponents. Toronto is 4-1 in Rogers' last 5 road starts. The Blue Jays are 11-3 in their last 14 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Roll with Toronto Monday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -121

The Chicago Cubs are playing some of their best baseball of the season heading into this series with the Milwaukee Brewers. They just swept the defending champion San Francisco Giants over the weekend on the road.

Chicago now faced a depleted Milwaukee Brewers team that is simply done for this season at 43-61. Milwaukee is without arguably its three best players in Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart. Also, Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez are banged up.

Jeff Samardzija is having a solid season for the Cubs, going 6-9 with a 3.94 ERA while striking out 139 batters over 137 innings. Samardzija has posted a 3.75 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in four career starts against Milwaukee.

The Brewers are 19-46 in their last 65 games as a road underdog. Milwaukee is 1-6 in Lohse's last 7 starts as a road underdog. The Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series. The Brewers are 0-13 (-14.4 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive overs this season. Chicago is 5-0 in its last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in its previous game. These last three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Chicago. Bet the Cubs Monday.

15* NL Monday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +135

The St. Louis Cardinals are showing some of their best value of the entire season tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Rarely will you ever get them as this big of an underdog.

St. Louis (62-40) will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after getting swept by the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. I like it chances to bounce back with the underrated Jake Westbrook on the mound.

Westbrook has gone 7-4 with a 2.95 ERA over 14 starts this season for the Cardinals. In his lone start against Pittsburgh this season, Westbrook pitching six shutout innings of a 3-5 loss on April 27.

St. Louis is 12-1 (+11.7 Units) against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season. The Cardinals are 23-5 (+17.4 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season. St. Louis is 16-4 (+12.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better this season. Francisco Liriano is 1-10 (-10.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Take the Cardinals Monday.

25* ESPN Sunday Night Baseball GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Cardinals -114

After losing the first two games of this series to the Atlanta Braves while scoring a combined one run in the process, the St. Louis Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball to avoid the sweep.

With the edge the Cardinals have on the mound, this play has earned GOTY status. Shelby Miller is 10-6 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.093 WHIP through 19 starts this season. He's also 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts.

Kris Medlen got off to a solid start this season, but he was one of the luckiest pitchers in the league. That luck has run out as Medlen is 0-3 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.978 WHIP in his last three starts.

St. Louis is 23-4 (+18.5 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season. Better yet, the Cardinals are a perfect 12-0 (+12.8 Units) against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

20* Reds/Dodgers NL Saturday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -123

The Los Angeles Dodgers should be a much heavier favorite over the Cincinnati Reds at home Saturday. They are playing their best baseball of the season right now, winning a major league-best 24 of 30 overall.

Los Angeles' Hyun-Jin Ryu has been at his best at home this season, going 4-1 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in nine starts. Meanwhile, Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo has been at his worst on the road, going 3-5 with a 4.13 ERA in eight starts away from home.

The Reds are hitting .249 and scoring 3.9 runs/game against left-handed starters in 2013. The Dodgers are hitting .266 and scoring 4.3 runs/game against right-handed starters this year. Los Angeles is hitting .321 and scoring 6.9 runs/game in its last seven games overall.

The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. Los Angeles is 5-0 in Ryu's last 5 starts as a favorite. The Dodgers are 5-0 in Ryu's last 5 starts overall. The Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. These four trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Dodgers Saturday.

15* NL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pirates/Marlins UNDER 7.5

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins will play part in a pitcher's duel Saturday. These are two of the worst offenses in the league as the Pirates are hitting .242 and scoring 3.9 runs/game, while the Marlins are hitting .232 and scoring 3.2 runs/game.

Both starting pitchers are underrated in this one. Charlie Morton has gone 2-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in seven starts this season. Tom Kohler has gone 2-5 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 11 starts and six relief appearances. Koehler is 1-0 with a 3.37 ERA in his last three starts.

The Under is a perfect 10-0 in Miami's last 10 games overall. The Under is 5-0 in Morton's last 5 starts as a favorite. The Under is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Under is 9-0 in Marlins last 9 games as an underdog. These four trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -119

Getting the Baltimore Orioles as this small of a home favorite Saturday is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. They continue chasing down Boston and Tampa Bay for the top spot in the AL East standings.

Scott Feldman is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander has gone 9-7 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in 19 starts, including 5-3 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in eight home starts.

Boston's Ryan Dempster is getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The right-hander is 5-8 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.453 WHIP in 20 starts, including 1-2 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.788 WHIP in six road starts.

The Red Sox are 22-51 in their last 73 games as an underdog. The Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 16-5 in its last 21 games as a home favorite, and 21-8 in its last 29 home games overall. Take the Orioles Saturday.

15* NL Saturday Afternoon Total ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals/Braves UNDER 8.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves. The UNDER is 5-1 in Cardinals' last 6 games overall, and they have scored 4 runs or fewer in five of those.

The UNDER is 4-2 in Braves' last 6 games overall. They have scored 4 runs or fewer in five of those. Both starting pitchers tonight are very underrated, which is why this total has been inflated.

Joe Kelly has posted a 3.88 ERA on the season, including a 3.18 ERA in three starts this year for St. Louis. Julio Teheran is 7-5 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in 19 starts, including 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in nine home starts.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Kelly's last 6 road starts. The UNDER is 7-1 in Teheran's last 8 home starts. The UNDER is 10-3 in Teheran's last 13 starts overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Angels/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +155

The Los Angeles Angels are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Oakland A's. They want revenge from getting shut out by Bartolo Colon just five days ago on July 21st.

Not only that, Los Angeles cannot afford to lose to Oakland. It trails the A's by 10 games in the AL West race. It has done a good job of taking advantage in this series, winning three out of four vs. Oakland since the All-Star Break.

Jerome Williams has been at this best on the road this season as the Angels are 4-1 in his five road starts. Los Angeles is 5-0 in its last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Los Angeles is 8-2 in its last 10 road games vs. a right-handed start. Roll with the Angels Friday.

15* AL Friday Mound Mismatch on Kansas City Royals -118

The Kansas City Royals have a big edge on the mound tonight with James Shields over Jose Quintana. Plus, they have won three straight coming in, while the White Sox have lost six of their last nine to drop to 40-59 on the year.

Shields should have better than a 4-7 record this season, but he simply hasn't gotten the run support. He has posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 21 starts, including a 2.74 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in 11 road starts.

Shields has faced the White Sox three times this season. He has given up just five earned runs over 19 innings for a 2.37 ERA. He has also struck out 19 batters while giving up 20 base runners in those three outings.

Chicago is 1-10 (-12.0 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games this season. The Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite. Kansas City is 5-0 in Shields' last 5 starts as a favorite. These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Kansas City. Take the Royals Friday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -109

The Baltimore Orioles have lost three straight coming in and now sit four games behind the Boston Red Sox for first place in the AL East division. Needless to say, they'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series Friday.

Chris Tillman has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season. The right-hander has gone 12-3 with a 3.84 ERA in 20 starts. Baltimore is 15-5 (+10.6 units) in those starts, meaning $1,000/game bettors would be up $10,600.

Tillman is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA in seven career starts against Boston. He has gone 2-0 with a miniscule 0.93 ERA in his last three starts against the Red Sox, yielding just two earned runs over 19 1/3 innings.

The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 6-0 in Tillman's last 6 starts as a favorite. The Orioles are 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 home starts. Baltimore is 11-1 in Tillman's last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. These four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing Baltimore. Bet the Orioles Friday.

20* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -113

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball right now. They have won six straight games while going 23-5 in their last 28 games overall. They should be a much heavier home favorite tonight against the Cincinnati Reds because of it.

That's especially the case with Zach Greinke on the mound. The right-hander has gone 8-2 with a 3.36 ERA in 15 starts this season, and he simply doesn't lose at home. Greinke is 5-0 with a 2.17 ERA in seven home starts this year.

If that's not enough, Greinke comes into this game pitching perhaps as well as he has his entire career over a 3-game stretch. He is 2-0 with a 0.41 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing one earned run in 22 innings. Meanwhile, Cincinnati's Mat Latos has posted a 7.20 ERA and 1.933 WHIP in his last three starts.

Greinke is a ridiculous 33-3 (+28.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. Greinke is also an amazing 21-1 (+20.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Dodgers Thursday.

15* Angels/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +101

The Los Angeles Angels really need to win this series with the Oakland A's to make up some ground in the AL West Division. They took two out of three from the A's in their first series out of the All-Star Break, and I look for them to take Game 1 tonight.

C.J. Wilson is having a tremendous year at 10-6 with a 3.15 ERA in 20 starts, including 2-1 with a 0.82 ERA in his last three. Wilson is 8-4 with a 2.84 ERA in 15 career starts against Oakland. That includes a dominant showing in his most recent start on July 20, pitching 8 1/3 shutout innings of a 2-0 Los Angeles victory.

Daniel Straily is simply no match for Wilson. He has not fared well in the past against Los Angeles, either. Straily is 1-1 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.434 WHIP in four career starts against the Angels.

Wilson is 25-10 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The A's are 1-5 in Straily's last 6 starts vs. American League West opponents. Take the Angels Thursday.

15* NL Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +166

The Philadelphia Phillies get the nod Thursday as a massive road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. They do not want to get swept in this series, therefore they come into this contest highly motivated for a victory.

Philadelphia will be giving the ball to the underrated Kyle Kendrick, who is 9-6 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in 20 starts this season. Kendrick has owned St. Louis, going 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.234 WHIP in seven career starts against the Cardinals.

Lance Lynn is simply getting too much respect from the books in this one. Lynn has gone 11-5 this season in spite of a 4.13 ERA over 20 starts. He has really struggled of late, going 1-2 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.776 WHIP in his last three outings.

Philadelphia is a very profitable 24-18 (+11.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. St. Louis is 4-13 (-13.6 Units) against the money line after a win by 6 runs or more this season. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Roll with Philadelphia Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +142

The San Diego Padres are showing tremendous value Wednesday. I backed them with success as a dog Tuesday, and I'll continue to do so Wednesday for many of the same reason.

Milwaukee's season is officially over with the suspension of Ryan Braun. It is also without arguably its other two best hitters in Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart. Also, Carlos Gomez is banged up. The Brewers simply will not receive much run support the rest of the way.

While I will admit that the Brewers have the edge on the mound in this one, I believe the Padres' edge at the plate will make up for it. They pounded out 15 hits last night, and they are hitting .308 with seven homers and 34 runs scored in their last six games. Milwaukee is hitting .206 over its last 11 games, and it has just eight hits in the first two games of this series.

Milwaukee is 1-12 (-11.9 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The Brewers are 4-17 (-13.6 Units) against the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season. Milwaukee is 3-12 (-11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. Take the Padres Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia Phillies +160

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value Wednesday as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. After losing their last three games overall, the Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.

St. Louis doesn't have the kind of edge on the mound that would warrant this ridiculous line. Jake Westbrook has been very lucky to post a 2.88 ERA on the season in spite of his huge 1.402 WHIP. He's being overvalued here. Westbrook has posted a 4.41 ERA and 1.622 WHIP in six career starts against Philadelphia.

John Lannan is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.272 WHIP in nine starts this season. The left-hander has been dominant of late, going 1-0 with a miniscule 0.56 ERA in his last two starts, allowing just one earned run and 11 base runners over 16 innings. Lannan is also 2-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.208 WHIP in seven career starts against St. Louis.

Philadelphia is 14-4 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. St. Louis is 37-44 (-22.1 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 38-17 in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Roll with Philadelphia Wednesday.

25* NL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Nationals -136

The Washington Nationals Wednesday represent one of my strongest selections for the entire 2013 MLB season. I look for them to crush the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight to put an end to their current 5-game losing streak.

Ace Stephen Strasburg will be highly motivated to help his team put an end to this skid. Strasburg has quietly been dominant once again this season, but we are getting him at a discount because he doesn't have the same reputation as last year due to his 5-7 record.

I'll gladly take advantage and back Strasburg at this generous price. The right-hander has posted a 2.97 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including a miniscule 1.75 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in 10 home starts.

Francisco Liriano is being overvalued in this spot tonight. He has pitched well in limited action for Pittsburgh this season, but I look for him to wear down as the season goes on. Liriano showed signed of that in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings of a 3-5 loss to Cincinnati.

Strasburg is 2-0 with a 3.15 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh. The Nationals are 3-0 in those contests, meaning that they have never lost with Strasburg starting against the Pirates. Bet Washington Wednesday.

15* Indians/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +104

The Cleveland Indians are showing solid value as a road underdog to the Seattle Mariners Tuesday. They trail the Detroit Tigers by just 2.5 games in the AL Central race, so it's obviously important for them to bounce back from a Game 1 loss to the Mariners.

Zach McAllister makes his return from the disabled list tonight from a strained finger. He had been pitching well before getting hurt, going 4-5 with a 3.43 ERA over 11 starts in 2013. McAllister has posted a 2.03 ERA in his last two starts against Seattle, allowing just 3 earned runs and 13 base runners over 13 1/3 innings.

Erasmo Ramirez is making just his second start of the season for Seattle. The first didn't go so well. Ramirez allowed 7 earned runs and 10 base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 7-8 loss to the Boston Red Sox on July 11th.

The Indians are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. American League West opponents. Cleveland is 19-8 in its last 27 vs. a team with a losing record. The Indians are 4-1 in McAllister's last 5 starts as an underdog. The Mariners are 0-4 in Ramirez's last 4 starts. Roll with the Indians Tuesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-110)

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value on the run line Tuesday at nearly even money. While I believe the Phillies have an excellent chance to win this game, I'll take the extra run for some insurance for the right price.

Jonathan Pettibone has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season. The right-hander has gone 5-3 with a 3.89 ERA in 16 starts, and the Phillies are 10-6 (+5.9 units) in those outings. Pettibone is also 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts.

Rookie Shelby Miller got off to a tremendous start in the first half of the season for St. Louis, but he's already showing signs of wearing down. Miller is 1-1 with a 7.10 ERA and 1.973 WHIP in his last three starts.

Philadelphia is 39-17 against the run line (+22.5 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. St. Louis is 3-17 against the run line (-14.1 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 16-5 against the run line (+11.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Take Philadelphia on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Padres +112

The Milwaukee Brewers' season is officially over. Ryan Braun has been suspended for the final 65 games of the season. Aramis Ramirez remains on the DL, Corey Hart isn't coming back, and Carlos Gomez is banged up.

I'll gladly back the San Diego Padres at this price Tuesday. Tyson Ross has pitched well this season for the Padres, and he'll have no problem shutting down this depleted Milwaukee lineup.

Ross has posted a 3.60 ERA over 45 innings pitched in 2013. He sports a 3.86 ERA in three starts, including a 3.11 ERA in two road starts. He'll be up against Donovan Hand, who is also making just his 4th start of the season for the Brewers.

Milwaukee is 1-11 (-10.6 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The Brewers are 9-25 (-15.5 Units) against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game this season. Milwaukee is 4-16 (-12.3 Units) against the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season. Bet the Padres Tuesday.

15* Indians/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +102

The Cleveland Indians are quietly having a solid season at 52-46. They are right in the thick of the AL Central race. I look for them to take care of business in Game 1 of this series with Seattle considering the edge they have on the mound.

Ubaldo Jimenez has been at his best away from home this year. The right-hander has gone 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA in 10 road starts this season, and the Indians are 7-3 in those 10 contests.

I'll gladly fade the washed-up Aaron Harang in this one. Seattle's right-hander is 4-8 with a 5.38 ERA in 15 stars this season. He is coming off one of his worst starts of the year in which he allowed 7 earned runs and 11 base runners over 5 innings of a 4-11 loss to Boston.

Seattle is 0-7 (-8.3 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. Harang is 0-7 (-9.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Mariners are 0-5 in Harang's last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Indians are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing Cleveland. Take the Indians Monday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -120

I'll gladly back the AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers (53-44) over the last-place Chicago White Sox (39-56) in Game 1 of this series Monday. This is a very generous price to get the Tigers with Max Scherzer on the mound.

Scherzer is having a Cy Young-caliber season at 13-1 with a 3.19 ERA and 0.979 WHIP with 152 K's over 129 2/3 innings. The right-hander has been at his best on the road, going 5-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.827 WHIP in nine starts away from home.

While Chris Sale is having a solid season for Chicago, the left-hander is just 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.621 WHIP in four career starts against Detroit. Meanwhile, Scherzer is 5-4 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in 13 career starts against the White Sox.

The Tigers are 22-5 in Scherzer's last 27 starts vs. American League Central opponents. Detroit is 10-1 in Scherzer's last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The White Sox are 15-32 in their last 47 games overall. Chicago is 1-8 in its last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Tigers Monday.

15* AL Monday Mound Mismatch on Baltimore Orioles -115

The Baltimore Orioles (56-43) are fighting hard to keep pace in the AL East race. Buck Showalter's team has gone 7-1 in its last 8 games overall, which includes a perfect 5-0 record against a very good Texas team during this span.

Kansas City has lost six of its last eight heading into this one, and another loss is likely tonight with Wade Davis on the mound. The right-hander has been atrocious, going 4-8 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.753 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 0-3 with an 11.77 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his last three starts.

Scott Feldman was quietly a very good trade acquisition for the Orioles before the deadline. The right-hander has gone 8-7 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 18 starts this season. Feldman is 3-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in seven career starts against Kansas City.

Feldman is 8-1 (+7.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Royals are 0-4 in Davis' last 4 starts overall. These three trends combine for a 17-1 system in support of Baltimore. Roll with the Orioles Monday.

15* Yankees/Red Sox ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +125

The New York Yankees need this series against Boston to get some momentum going in the AL East race after the All-Star Break. With the edge they have on the mound, I look for them to take Game 3 tonight.

C.C. Sabathia hasn't been at his best this season, but he's still 9-8 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.234 WHIP in 20 starts this year. Sabathia has gone 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA in his last three starts against Boston, allowing 7 earned runs over 20 1/3 innings while striking out 22.

Ryan Dempster is 5-8 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He has really struggled of late, going 0-0 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.935 WHIP in his last three starts.

Dempster has never beaten New York. In fact, he is 0-5 with a 7.29 ERA and 2.010 WHIP in six career starts against the Yankees. His teams are 0-6 in those six contests. Roll with the Yankees Sunday.

20* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels +109

I've backed the Los Angeles Angels with success in the first two games of this series with Oakland. I'm going to continue to stick with them as I have stated that they need to sweep this series to get back in the AL West race. They'll be highly motivated to do so Sunday.

Jerome Williams has held his own this season for Los Angeles. He has gone 5-5 with a 4.60 ERA on the season over 92 innings pitched. He struggled heading into the All-Star Break, but I believe that time off will be good for him as he regroups and gets ready to pitch this very important game Sunday.

Williams is 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA in seven career starts against Oakland. The A's are 5-12 (-8.5 Units) against the money line in road games in day games this season. The Angels are 8-1 (+7.7 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons. Bet Los Angeles Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +175

The Houston Astros are showing tremendous value as a massive home underdog to the lowly Seattle Mariners Sunday. After losing the first two games of this series, the Astros will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3.

Jordan Lyles has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season. The right-hander has gone 4-3 with a 4.02 ERA in 14 starts this year.

Lyles had arguably his best start of the season against Seattle on June 12. He pitched 7 shutout innings while allowing just 5 base runners and striking out 10 in a 6-1 Houston victory.

The Mariners are 3-10 in their last 13 during game 3 of a series. Seattle is 6-14 in Hernandez's last 20 starts during game 3 of a series. Hernandez is 3-11 (-9.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons. Take the Astros Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Angels -140

The Los Angeles Angels realize they need to sweep this series with the Oakland A's if they want to get back into the AL West race. They are off to a good start with a 4-1 victory in Game 1 Friday, getting to within 10 games of the division lead.

With the edge the Angels have on the mound in this one, I'll gladly back them tonight. C.J. Wilson is 9-6 with a 3.37 ERA in 19 starts this season, 4-3 with a 2.51 ERA in nine home starts, and 2-1 with a 0.87 ERA in his last three starts.

Daniel Straily is 6-2 with a 4.27 ERA in 14 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 4.77 ERA in eight road starts. While Wilson has posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.244 WHIP in 14 career starts against Oakland, Straily sports a 7.87 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in three career starts against Los Angeles. He has allowed a whopping 8 home runs in those three starts.

The Angels are 15-2 in their last 17 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. Los Angeles is 4-0 in Wilson's last 4 starts with a total set of 6.5 or lower. The A's are 0-4 in thier last 4 games as an underdog. These three trends combine for a 23-2 system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Angels Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Mound Mismatch on Miami Marlins +155

The Miami Marlins are showing excellent value as a massive road underdog to the lowly Milwaukee Brewers Saturday. Milwaukee is just 39-56 on the season, and it doesn't even have the edge on the mound in this one despite being so heavily favored.

Nathan Eovaldi is quietly having an excellent season for Miami in limited action. He has gone 2-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in five starts in 2013, allowing just 10 earned runs, 19 hits and 2 homers over 30 2/3 innings.

Yovani Gallardo is clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The right-hander has gone 7-8 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.434 WHIP in 20 starts, 3-4 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.482 WHIP in 10 home starts, and 1-1 with a 9.0 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last three starts.

Eovaldi has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee, not once allowing more than 2 earned runs in any of those three outings. Milwaukee is 28-48 (-19.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Marlins are 11-3 in their last 14 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Brewers are 6-16 in their last 22 games as a home favorite. Roll with the Marlins Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh Pirates +135

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been known for their second-half struggles over the past two seasons. After losing Game 1 of this series to the Cincinnati Reds, I look for the Pirates to dig deep and come back with a Game 2 victory behind ace A.J. Burnett.

Burnett has been rock-solid once again in 2013. The right-hander has posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in 16 starts this year, striking out 110 batters in 100 innings. Burnett is also 1-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts.

Matt Latos has really struggled of late for Cincinnati. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.860 WHIP in his last three starts. Burnett has posted a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts against Cincinnati, allowing just 6 earned runs over 20 innings.

The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Pittsburgh is 5-1 in Burnett's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win. Take the Pirates Saturday.

20* NL DOG OF THE MONTH on Miami Marlins +145

The Miami Marlins are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers Friday. They won three of their last four games heading into the All-Star game, and I look for them to carry that momentum into their first game back.

Milwaukee (38-56) has no business being this heavily favored tonight. That's especially the case considering it doesn't even have the edge on the mound, and that it has played poorly all season.

Kyle Lohse is 5-7 with a 3.67 ERA in 19 starts this season for the Brewers, while Jacob Turner is 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA in eight starts this season for the Marlins. Turner allowed 3 earned runs and 7 base runners over 7 innings of a 5-4 Miami win in his lone start against Milwaukee in 2013.

The Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day. The Brewers are 4-17 in their last 21 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Milwaukee is 0-6 in Lohse's last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Bet the Marlins Friday.

15* Angels/Mariners AL Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +125

The Los Angeles Angels are showing solid value as a road underdog to the Seattle Mariners this afternoon. After losing the first two games of this series, the Angels will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 to avoid the sweep.

Hisashi Iwakuma is certainly having a heck of a season overall for Seattle. However, he has come back down to reality of late, going 0-1 with a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 14 earned runs and a whopping 7 home runs over 17 innings.

Joe Blanton hasn't posted great numbers this year, but he is facing an opponent he has had some nice success against in the past. Blanton is 8-6 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 17 career starts against the Mariners.

The Angels are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 8-3 in its last 11 road games overall. The Mariners are 2-10 in their last 12 during game 3 of a series. Seattle is 1-4 in Iwakuma's last 5 starts overall. Roll with the Angels Sunday.

15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -119

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday. They should be a much heavier favorite given the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Scott Feldman has gone 7-7 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.173 WHIP in 17 starts this season. He has been at his best at home, going 4-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in seven home starts.

Josh Johnson just hasn't been able to return to form since having Tommy John surgery. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Johnson has been at his worst on the road, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.608 WHIP in four starts.

The Blue Jays are 0-7 in their last 7 games following a win. The Blue Jays are 0-4 in Johnson's last 4 road starts. Toronto is 0-4 in Johnson's last 4 starts as an underdog. These three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Orioles. Plus, Baltimore is 45-18 in its last 63 games following a loss. Take the Orioles Sunday.

20* American League DOG OF THE MONTH on Kansas City Royals +110

The Kansas City Royals are highly motivated for a victory today. They have lost four straight games and certainly do not want to go into the All-Star Break on a 5-game losing streak.

Ace James Shields is just the perfect guy to stop the bleeding. Shields has pitched very well this year, going 4-6 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in 19 starts. He has been at his best away from home, going 3-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 10 road starts.

Ubaldo Jimenez is no match for Shields in this one. Jimenez is 7-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in 18 starts this year. He has been at his worst at home, going 3-3 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.512 WHIP in eight starts.

The Royals are 8-0 in Shields' last 8 starts overall. Kansas City is 7-0 in Shields' last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Royals are 5-0 in Shields' last 5 starts vs. American League Central opponents. The Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Kansas City. Bet the Royals Sunday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco Giants +104

The San Francisco Giants are showing awesome value as an underdog to the San Diego Padres Saturday. Off an emphatic 10-1 win yesterday, the Giants are back on track and wanting to sweep this series heading into the All-Star Break.

While Tim Lincecum hasn't been at his best this season, he has still been better than San Diego starter Edinson Volquez. Lincecum is 4-9 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 18 starts, while Volquez is 6-7 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in 19 starts.

Lincecum is 11-6 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 24 career starts against San Diego. In two starts against the Padres in 2013, Lincecum has only allowed two earned runs over 13 2/3 innings. Volquez is 2-1 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in eight career starts against San Francisco.

The Giants are 25-5 (+16.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 home games. San Diego is 1-5 in Volquez's last 6 home starts. Bet the Giants Saturday.

15* Rangers/Tigers AL Saturday No-Brainer on Texas +150

The Texas Rangers are highly motivated for a victory Saturday. They have lost three straight coming in, so they'll be putting a little more into this one to try and put an end to this brief skid.

Max Scherzer is the most overvalued pitcher in the league right now. That's because he is off to a 13-0 start this season, but he's not as good as that record would indicate. In fact, he has an 8-0 record at home despite a sub-par 4.01 ERA.

Texas' Derek Holland has quietly been one of the best starters in the league this year. The left-hander has gone 7-4 with a 3.19 ERA in 18 starts, 5-1 with a 3.06 ERA in 10 road starts, and 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last three outings.

Holland is 44-19 (+18.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 40-18 in Holland's last 58 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Texas is 14-3 in Holland's last 17 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in its previous game. The Rangers are 83-40 in their last 123 games following a loss. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Rangers Saturday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals +137

The Kansas City Royals are showing excellent value Saturday as a nice-sized road underdog to the Cleveland Indians. After losing three straight heading into this one, there's no question the Royals will be motivated for a victory tonight.

I like their chances with the underrated Jeremy Guthrie getting the ball. Guthrie has gone 8-6 with a 4.12 ERA in 18 starts this season, and Kansas City is a very profitable 11-7 (+4.6 units) in those 18 contests.

I'll gladly fade Cleveland's Scott Kazmir, who is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. Kazmir has gone 4-4 with a 4.74 ERA in seven starts and eight relief appearances this year. Kazmir is 3-3 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in 12 career starts against Kansas City.

The Royals are 17-4 in Guthrie's last 21 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Kansas City is 21-8 in Guthrie's last 29 starts overall. The Royals are 13-3 in Guthrie's last 16 starts vs. American League Central opponents. Roll with the Royals Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +215

I cashed in the Houston Astros +275 Friday in a 2-1 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. Once again, the Astros are showing too good of value to pass up Saturday as more than a 2-to-1 underdog to the Rays.

With this line, you would think that Tampa has the edge on the mound, but that's simply not the case. Dallas Keuchel is 4-4 with a 4.41 ERA as a starter this season in 11 outings, and the Astros have gone a very profitable 6-5 (+6.4 units) in those contests.

Kuechel has been at his best on the road this season, posting a 3.64 ERA in five starts away from home. I'll gladly fade Tampa Bay's Roberto Hernandez, who is 4-10 with a 4.92 ERA in 17 starts this year. The Rays are 6-11 (-6.7 units) in those 17 contests.

Hernandez is 1-9 (-9.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. Hernandez is 1-9 (-9.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. Take the Astros Saturday.

15* Angels/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -112

The Los Angeles Angels have made a nice run over the past month to get to 44-46 on the season. They have won 11 of their last 14 games overall and had a day off yesterday. Meanwhile, Seattle played yesterday and lost its third straight, allowing a combined 30 runs in the process.

Jerome Williams has pitched fairly well for the Angels this season, going 5-4 with a 4.16 ERA on the season, including 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA in four road starts. Williams is 4-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in five career starts against Seattle.

In his lone start against the Mariners this season, Williams pitched eight shutout innings of a 12-0 Los Angeles victory on May 21st. Joe Saunders is 7-8 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 18 starts this year for Seattle.

The Mariners are 0-8 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Angels are 8-1 in their last 9 road games, 5-0 in their last 5 vs. AL West foes, and 6-0 in Williams' last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. These five trends combine for a 34-1 system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Angels Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +275

I'll give the Houston Astros a shot tonight at an absolutely great price. Houston comes in on one days' rest, while Tampa Bay does not. The Rays are simply getting too much respect from the books after having won eight straight and 12 of their last 13 overall.

Houston has called up Jarred Cosart to make his major league debut tonight. He was acquired from Philadelphia in the 2011 Hunter Pence deal, and he has gone 7-4 with a 3.29 ERA with Triple-A Oklahoma City this year. Cosart has struck out 93 batters in 93 innings, and he'll have an advantage tonight as the Rays will not know what to expect from him.

Tampa Bay starter David Price is a woeful 17-20 (-16.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. He is simply being overvalued in this one folks. Roll with the Astros Friday.

20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -136

The Baltimore Orioles should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Toronto Blue Jays. They have the edge on the mound in this one, and I'll back them at a solid price as a result.

Chris Tillman remains one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander has gone 10-3 with a 3.92 ERA in 18 starts this season. Tillman has gone 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts against Toronto.

I'll gladly fade Blue Jays' starter Mark Buehrle, who is 5-5 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in 18 starts this season. Buehrle has been at his worst away from home, going 1-4 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in nine road starts.

Toronto is 1-9 (-8.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game this season. The Blue Jays are 27-57 in their last 84 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Baltimore is 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 starts as a favorite. Bet the Orioles Friday.

15* AL Friday Night Line Mistake on Kansas City Royals +140

The Kansas City Royals are showing excellent value as a nice-sized road underdog to the Cleveland Indians tonight. The Indians are simply getting too much respect from the books tonight in a game that is much more evenly-matched than this line would indicate.

Bruce Chen has been outstanding in relief action this season, and he has earned his first start of the year as a result. Chen has gone 3-0 with a 2.41 ERA while allowing just 9 earned runs over 33 2/3 innings.

Corey Kluber is nowhere near as good as this line would indicate. Kluber has gone 5-5 with a 4.37 ERA in 14 starts this season. The right-hander has posted a 6.48 ERA in three career starts against Kansas City, allowing 12 earned runs over 16 2/3 innings.

Cleveland is 5-22 (-18.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Chen is a very profitable 54-39 (+21.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997. The Royals are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss. Take Kansas City Friday.

20* Rockies/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this game between the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers. I'll side with the OVER tonight as a result in what I believe will be a slug fest in this NL West showdown.

Both starters have been atrocious this season. Drew Pomeranz is 0-2 with a 9.72 ERA and 2.521 WHIP in two starts this year, while Chris Capuano is 2-6 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in 10 starts and two relief appearances. Capuano is also 1-4 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.048 WHIP in five home starts.

In his last start against Los Angeles, Pomeranz allowed six runs over 4 innings of an 8-10 loss to the Dodgers. In his last two starts against Colorado, Capuano has allowed 12 runs over 10 1/3 innings.

Each of the last 10 meetings between the Dodgers and Rockies have seen 8 or more combined runs. Both Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are expected to play tonight, making the Rockies' lineup as potent as it can be. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Interleague Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +227

The Houston Astros are showing arguably their best value of the season tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals. They have scored at least 4 runs in each of their last 6 games, and that kind of run support will be enough for the underrated Jordan Lyles.

Lyles clearly isn't getting the respect he deserves from the books tonight. He has gone 4-3 with a 3.87 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in five road starts.

While rookie Shelby Miller is having a solid season overall, he's starting to show signs of wearing down. Miller has gone 1-2 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.799 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 24 base runners over 13 1/3 innings of work.

St. Louis is 7-17 (-14.8 Units) against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more this season. The Cardinals are 3-12 (-14.3 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Houston is 14-11 (+12.4 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. The Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 Wednesday games. Roll with the Astros Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +170

The Minnesota Twins are showing excellent value Wednesday as a big road underdog to the Tampa Bay Rays. Minnesota will be highly motivated for a victory after losing the first two games of this series to Tampa.

Kevin Correia has pitched pretty well for the Twins this season. He has gone 6-6 with a 4.19 ERA in 17 starts, and the Twins are 9-8 in those 17 contests. Correia is 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA in one career starts against Tampa.

Jeremy Hellickson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The right-hander is 8-3 on the season despite sporting a 4.67 ERA over 18 starts. Hellickson has posted a 4.26 ERA in four career starts against Minnesota.

Correia is a very profitable 54-37 (+30.5 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997. Minnesota is a ridiculous 17-2 (+18.9 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span this season. Hellickson is 9-19 (-13.3 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the Twins Wednesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Royals/Yankees OVER 8.5

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this game between the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees. I look for both lineups to tee off on their opposing sub-par starters in an absolute slug fest.

Wade Davis is 4-7 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.751 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 6.81 ERA and 2.081 WHIP in eight road starts. Davis is 2-4 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.654 WHIP in seven career starts against New York. In his lone start against the Yankees this season, Davis allowed 7 earned runs over 5 innings of a 6-11 loss.

Ivan Nova is 2-2 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in six starts this season for New York. Nova is 1-1 with a monster 11.88 ERA and 2.641 WHIP in two career starts against Kansas City. He has allowed 15 runs, 11 earned, 22 base runners and 3 homers over 8 1/3 innings in those two outings.

The OVER is 5-1 in Royals last 6 during game 3 of a series. The OVER is 4-0 in Nova's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 7-3 in Nova's last 10 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh Pirates -116

Off three straight losses, the Pittsburgh Pirates come into tonight's Game 2 with the Oakland A's highly motivated for a victory. I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory tonight to get back in the win column.

Rookie Gerrit Cole has been solid for the Pirates since getting called up. The right-hander has gone 4-1 with a 3.94 ERA in five starts this season while only walking five batters in 29 2/3 innings.

Daniel Straily has struggled for the most part for the A's. The right-hander is 5-2 with a 4.52 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 5.31 ERA in seven road starts. In his last two road starts, Straily has allowed 8 earned runs, 18 base runners and 3 homers over 8 innings of work.

Pittsburgh is 29-16 at home this season. The Pirates are 8-1 in their last 9 interleague games. Pittsburgh is 22-6 in its last 28 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Pirates are 22-8 in their last 30 games following a loss. The A's are 16-38 in their last 54 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Pirates Tuesday.

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -135

The Cincinnati Reds were robbed of a win last night as Carlos Gomez stole a home run away from Joey Votto. I look for them to bounce back in a big way in Game 2 of this series Tuesday due to their edge on the mound.

Rookie Tony Cingrani has been electric in limited action this season. The left-hander is 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in eight starts this season. He has struck out 62 batters over 53 innings on the year.

Cingrani will be up against Wily Peralta, who is 5-9 with a massive 5.27 ERA and 1.572 WHIP in 18 starts this year, including 3-6 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in 10 home starts. The Reds are scoring 4.6 runs/game against right-handed starters, while the Brewers are scoring 3.5 runs/game against lefties.

In two starts against Cincinnati this season, Peralta is 0-2 while allowing nine runs, seven earned, and 16 base runners over 11 1/3 innings. He has never beaten the Reds as the Brewers are 0-3 in his three career starts against them. Bet the Reds Tuesday.

15* MLB Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Angels -122

The Los Angeles Angels should be a much heavier favorite over the lowly Chicago Cubs Tuesday. While the Angels had Monday off, the Cubs played the crosstown rival White Sox in an emotional victory yesterday.

Los Angeles comes in playing its best baseball of the season. It has won 10 of its last 12 games overall to get back to just two games below .500 on the year. It is finally starting to play up to its potential.

Joe Blanton has been at his best of late, going 1-0 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in his last three starts while striking out 19 batters over 20 innings. Blanton is also 1-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in six career starts against Chicago.

Travis Wood is 7-24 (-13.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 7-0 in their last 7 road games. The Cubs are 0-8 in Wood's last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. These two trends combine for a 15-0 system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Angels Tuesday.

15* NL Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +1.5 (+110)

The Houston Astros are showing excellent value Tuesday as an underdog even on the run line against the St. Louis Cardinals. I'll gladly take advantage and back them in a game I believe they could win outright, but I'll take the extra run for some insurance.

Bud Norris isn't getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers in this one. The right-hander has gone 6-7 with a 3.22 ERA in 18 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts.

What I really like about Norris is the fact that he has had a ton of success against St. Louis in the past. In fact, Norris is 8-5 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Cardinals. The Astros are 10-5 in those 15 contests while gaining $1,000/game bettors $12,200.

This play falls into a system that is 51-14 (78.5%) against the Run Line over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+135 to -190) (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL), with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games. Take the Astros on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Baltimore Orioles -120

After losing four of their last five games overall heading into tonight's showdown with the Texas Rangers, the Baltimore Orioles are highly motivated for a victory. I believe they get back on track Tuesday with a much-needed home win.

Zach Britton has pitched very well of late, going 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his last two starts overall. He has allowed just three earned runs over 12 2/3 innings in games against the Yankees and White Sox. Britton has faced the Rangers once in his career, pitching 7 2/3 shutout innings of a 5-0 Baltimore victory.

Baltimore is 27-9 (+21.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 Tuesday games. The Orioles are 20-6 in their last 26 Tuesday games. Baltimore is 44-17 in its last 61 games following a loss. Roll with the Orioles Tuesday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers -107

The Los Angeles Dodgers come into this series with Arizona playing their best baseball of the season. They h ave won 12 of their last 15 games overall. They are finally almost 100% healthy, which is a big reason for their resurgence.

Zach Greinke is 6-2 with a 4.30 ERA in 12 starts this season. He suffered a broken collarbone earlier this season, so he hasn't been his old self. But I have no doubt he is primed for a big second half now that he's healthy.

Randall Delgado isn't nearly as talented as Greinke, and he's getting too much respect here from oddsmakers. Delgado has posted a 3.67 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in 27 innings pitched this season. He's no more than a spot starter in this league.

Greinke is 53-24 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. Greinke is 22-7 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. The Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take Los Angeles Monday.

20* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -109

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Texas Rangers tonight. Baltimore recently traded for underrated starter Scott Feldman, and he'll be motivated to beat his former team tonight.

Feldman is 7-6 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.974 WHIP in six road starts. He was awesome in his Baltimore debut, allowing two earned runs over 6 innings of a 4-2 victory over the Chicago White Sox on July 3.

Feldman has faced his former team this season as a member of the Chicago Cubs. He pitched 7 shutout innings while allowing only three base runners in a 9-2 Chicago victory on May 6. He wants to prove to his former team that they should have never let him go.

Baltimore is 11-2 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. The Orioles are 16-5 in their last 21 home games. Baltimore is 4-0 in its last 4 games as a home favorite. Bet the Orioles Monday.

15* AL Monday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Indians +144

The Cleveland Indians are showing awesome value as a big home underdog to the Detroit Tigers Monday. Max Scherzer is 13-0 on the season, and the Tigers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight because of it.

Scott Kazmir has been at his best over his last three starts. Cleveland's left-hander has gone 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.684 WHIP in his last three outings, allowing just 4 earned runs and 13 base runners over 19 innings of work.

Scherzer has posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.349 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Indians, so they clearly have him figured out. Meanwhile, Kazmir sports a 3.79 ERA in 11 career starts against Detroit. In fact, he is 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in his last three starts against the Tigers, allowing 3 earned runs over 16 2/3 innings.

This play falls into a system that is 73-38 (65.8%, +35.5 Units) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (CLEVELAND) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.50) -AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts.

The Tigers are 7-21 in their last 28 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Cleveland is 23-11 in its last 34 home games. The Indians are 5-1 in Kazmir's last 6 home starts. Roll with the Indians Monday.

20* Red Sox/Angels ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -130

The Los Angeles Angels are playing their best baseball of the season having won nine of their last 11 games overall. With ace Jered Weaver on the mound tonight, I look for them to keep rolling and win this Game 3 against the Boston Red Sox to take the series.

Weaver is 2-4 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in nine starts this year. After battling injuries for most of the first half, he is finally healthy and it's starting to show. Weaver is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his last two starts against Detroit and St. Louis, allowing two earned runs over 14 innings.

John Lackey has been at his worst away from home this year. The right-hander is 2-4 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.368 WHIP in eight road starts. In his last start against the Angels, Lackey gave up 8 earned runs and 13 base runners over 4 innings of a 0-11 loss.

Weaver is 10-1 (+9.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Weaver is 14-1 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in home games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons. Weaver is 12-1 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Angels Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +160

The Miami Marlins are showing excellent value Sunday as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. They come in playing well having won 10 of their last 15 games overall for their best stretch of baseball this season.

However, after losing the first two games of this series to St. Louis, they will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep and win Game 3 Sunday. With the edge they have on the mound, the Marlins should not be the underdog in this one.

Rookie Jose Fernandez is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 5-4 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.058 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.738 WHIP in his last three starts.

Fernandez faced St. Louis on June 14, allowing two earned runs over 7 innings while striking out 10 in a 5-4 Miami victory. Lance Lynn faced the Marlins on June 15 a day later, allowing 7 earned runs and 12 base runners over 5 innings for a 12.60 ERA and 2.400 WHIP.

The Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Miami is 5-0 in its last 5 Sunday games. The Marlins are 5-1 in Fernandez's last 6 starts overall. These three trends combine for a 16-1 system backing Miami. Take the Marlins Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Twins +155

The Minnesota Twins are showing awesome value as a big road underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday. After not winning a series north of the border in eight seasons, the Twins will be highly motivated to put an end to that streak by winning Game 3 of this series.

Toronto's Todd Redmond is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. He has only pitched three innings in the big leagues all season, and he doesn't warrant being this heavily favored.

Scott Diamond grew up 50 miles from Toronto and would love to beat his home team. He has had a ton of success against the Blue Jays in the past, going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in two career starts against them, allowing just two earned runs and 11 base runners over 12 innings.

Minnesota is a very profitable 15-12 (+12.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 home games. Toronto is 52-83 (-28.6 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Twins Sunday.

15* Orioles/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on Baltimore +115

The Baltimore Orioles get the call Sunday as a road underdog to the New York Yankees. After losing the first two games of this series to New York by a single run each, the Orioles are highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 to avoid the sweep.

While Jason Hammel has posted worse numbers than Hiroki Kuroda this season, the recent head-to-head numbers support this selection. Hammel is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA in his last three starts against New York, allowing just six earned runs over 18 1/3 innings.

Kuroda has faced Baltimore twice since May 22. He has gone 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA in those two starts, allowing 9 earned runs and 5 home runs over just 8 innings of work.

Hammel is 7-1 (+7.5 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons. The Orioles are 6-2 in their last 8 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Baltimore is 43-17 in its last 60 games following a loss. The Orioles are 5-1 in Hammel's last 6 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Yankees are 0-4 in Kuroda's last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. Bet the Orioles Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +127

The Chicago White Sox get the call Saturday as a road underdog to the Tampa Bay Rays. They should not be a dog in this contest given their edge on the mound.

Ace Chris Sale gets the ball for the White Sox in this one. Despite being just 5-7, Sale is having a tremendous season, posting a 2.79 ERA and 0.959 WHIP over 15 starts with 114 strikeouts in 106 1/3 innings.

In his lone career start at Tampa Bay in 2012, Sale allowed one earned run and five base runners over 7 1/3 innings while striking out 15. Matt Moore is 11-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 5-2 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in eight home starts.

The White Sox are 7-1 in Sale's last 8 starts with 5 days of rest. Chicago is 4-1 in Sale's last 5 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Rays are 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Roll with the White Sox Saturday.