20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -4

Bradley is 9-5 against the 82nd-toughest schedule in the country.  Missouri State is 9-5 against the 274th-ranked schedule in the country.  That nearly 200-spot difference in strength of schedule is a big reason I'm laying the points with Bradley at home today.

Missouri State has not looked good on the road this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games losing by 17 at Drake, by 4 at Middle Tennessee and by 1 at Tulsa.  Bradley is on Drake's level and a contender to win the MVC.  They will prove it today.

Bradley won both meetings with Missouri State last season.  They won 58-40 as 2.5-point road dogs and 64-54 as 9.5-point home favorites.  Bradley has one of the best home-court advantages in the country going 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games.

The Braves are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  Missouri State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 65 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Bet Bradley Saturday.

20* Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Stanford/USC OVER 150.5

The USC Trojans are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-3 OVER in all games this season, including 5-1 OVER at home where they are scoring 82.2 points per game.  The Trojans rank 82nd in adjusted tempo and are an elite offensive team but a terrible defensive team.  They have allowed at least 78 points in six of their last eight games overall, including 86 to a bad Oregon State offense.

Stanford ranks 122nd in adjusted tempo and 29th in effective field goal percentage.  The Cardinal are 9-4 OVER in all games this season.  They just hung 100 points in an upset win over Arizona two games back.  They went for 160 combined points with USC in their last trip to face the Trojans.

USC is 7-1 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Stanford is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better.  USC and their opponents have combined for at least 156 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Auburn/Arkansas OVER 157

Arkansas is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Razorbacks are 11-2 OVER in all games this season, including 8-0 OVER in home games where they are scoring 87.9 points per game.  They rank 80th in adjusted tempo this season.

The Auburn Tigers also like to get up and down ranking 70th in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted offense.  They are scoring 84.8 points per game on the season and 82.8 points per game on the road.

Auburn has scored at least 82 points in six consecutive games.  Arkansas has scored at least 77 points in six of its last nine games overall.  I think both teams get 80-plus in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas +2.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a young team that is improving with each passing week under one of the best head coaches in the country in Eric Musselman.  They are 7-1 at home this season which includes an upset win over Duke.

The Razorbacks should not be home underdogs to the Auburn Tigers today.  Auburn has only played one true road game all season.  They lost that game 69-64 at Appalachian State as 7.5-point favorites.  They have had big home/road splits under current head coach Bruce Pearl.

Arkansas is 18-4 SU in its last 22 home meetings with Auburn.  The Tigers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as road favorites of 3 points or less or PK.  The Razorbacks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Line Mistake on Evansville -1.5

Evansville is 10-4 SU & 10-3 ATS and one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  Murray State is 5-9 SU & 5-8 ATS and one of the most overrated.  I'll gladly lay the short number on the Purple Aces at home today.

Murray State is 0-6 SU in neutral/true road games this season.  The Racers were also upset at home as double-digit favorites by SE Louisiana.  Evansville is 6-0 SU at home where they are outscoring opponents by 23.6 points per game.

Murray State is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 road games.  The Racers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following two or more consecutive wins.  Bet Evansville Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Creighton -10

The Creighton Bluejays have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  Look for them to beat Providence by double-digits to cover this number at home Saturday.

Creighton has played the 29th-toughest schedule in the country so they are battle-tested.  Providence has faced the 171st-ranked schedule.  The Friars have only played one true road game, and they lost that game badly 72-51 as 5-point dogs at Oklahoma.  This will now be their toughest test of the season.

Making it even tougher is that they lost their best player in BJ Hopkins (15.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG) to a season-ending injury in their 61-57 upset home loss to Seton Hall as 6-point favorites in their last game.  They stand very little chance of keeping this game competitive on the road in their first game without Hopkins.

Creighton is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after failing to cover the spread in four of its last five games.  Providence is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Bet Creighton Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin-Milwaukee -5.5

Wisconsin-Milwaukee just got its best player back from injury in BJ Freeman (19.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG).  Freeman averaged 17.0 PPG and 5.1 RPG last season for the Panthers.  He was out from November 25th to December 31st.

Freeman returned to action against Wright State on December 31st and poured in 23 points in a 91-83 victory.  He had 15 points and 5 boards in a 100-95 loss at Oakland as 5.5-point dogs last time out.  He means everything to this team, and they are an undervalued commodity moving forward with a healthy Freeman.

Now the Panthers will blow out the worst team in all of college basketball in Detroit.  The Titans are 0-16 this season and just lost their best player in Jayden Stone (18.9 PPG) to injury.  They are 3-13 ATS this season and consistently getting too much respect from the books as people keep betting them hoping to catch a falling knife.

The losses have been real ugly of late for Detroit.  They lost by 18 at home to Wisconsin-Green Bay as 2.5-point dogs, by 35 at IUPFW as 13-point dogs and by 12 at IUPUI as 2.5-point favorites.  They haven't even come close to covering in their last three games, and they won't come close Saturday, either.

Detroit is 0-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games this season.  The Titans are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Wisconsin-Milwaukee Saturday.

15* Marquette/Seton Hall Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on Seton Hall +5

Seton Hall is starting to make some headway under second-year head coach Shaheen Holloway.  The Pirates are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset Missouri on a neutral, upset UConn by 15 as 7.5-point home dogs and upset Providence by 4 as 6-point road dogs during this stretch.

If they can upset UConn at home, they certainly have a great shot to upset Marquette as well.  We just saw Marquette get upset in their Big East road opener, losing 72-57 as 4-point favorites at Providence.  They are coming off a big home win over Creighton by 5, which sets them up for a letdown spot here as well.

Holloway is 46-28 ATS as an underdog as a head coach.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday.

15* UNC/Clemson ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -1.5

The Clemson Tigers are 11-2 SU & 9-4 ATS this season with both of their losses coming on the road to Memphis and Miami.  The Tigers are back home now coming off that loss to Miami, and they are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season.  This is a legit NCAA Tournament and ACC title contender, and they will prove it with a win and cover at home against UNC today.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Tar Heels, who are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  We saw them lose to Kentucky and UConn on a neutral prior to that.  UNC has somehow only played one true road game all season to this point, so they won't be prepared for the kind of atmosphere they are going to face at Clemson Saturday.

UNC Is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Tar Heels are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games with a line of +3 to -3.  Clemson is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after a game with a combined scored of 155 or more points.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Tigers today.  Also, Clemson is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Kings OVER 238

The Sacramento Kings are definitely an OVER team especially playing at home where they can control the tempo.  The OVER is 12-6 in Sacramento's 18 home games this season where they are scoring 121.7 points per game and allowing 120.2 points per game.

The Toronto Raptors just made a trade to bring in RJ Barrett and Emmanuel Quickley from the Knicks.  Those moves make the Raptors more of an OVER team moving forward as both Barrett and Quickley are scorers but poor defenders.  We've seen that play out here of late for the Raptors.

The Raptors have now scored at least 116 points in six consecutive games with the OVER going 4-2 in those six games.  They combined for 245 points with Utah, 238 with Boston, 256 with Detroit and 245 with Cleveland.  This total of 238 is too low for this game tonight considering infusion of offense for the Raptors that Barrett and Quickley provide.

Sacramento is 22-7 OVER in its last 29 home games following an ATS loss.  Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 200 or higher (Sacramento) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game in January games are 37-10 (78.7%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pistons/Warriors OVER 240.5

The Detroit Pistons have gotten healthy here recently which is why they are playing a lot more competitive basketball of late.  But they are only competitive because they have improved greatly offensively, but they are still a terrible defensive team ranking 27th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 6-0 in Pistons last six games overall and 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.  The Pistons and their opponents have combined for at least 240 points in nine of their last 12 games overall.  That includes 302 with Utah last game, 249 with Houston the game prior, 256 with Toronto the game prior and 250 with the Celtics the game prior.

The Warriors are without their two best defenders in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II right now, which makes them more of an OVER team.  The Warriors rank 20th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 3-0 in Warriors last three games overall as they combined for 257 points with the Nuggets, 236 with the Magic and 254 with the Mavericks.  These two teams should have no problem combining to top the 240.5-point total tonight.

Detroit is 22-12 OVER in all games this season, including 13-5 OVER in road games.  The Pistons are 9-0 OVER vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Grizzlies/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 228.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts UNDER team even with JA Morant.  They start three elite defenders in Marcus Smart, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Xavier Tillman who also don't provide a ton offensively at the same time.

The UNDER is 21-13 in all Memphis games this season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four games overall with 227, 204, 215 and 223 combined points, which all would have stayed UNDER this 228.5-point total.

The Lakers are 10-5 UNDER in all home games this season.  They are averaging just over 222 combined points per game at home with their opponents.  Making the Lakers an even stronger UNDER team right now is the fact that they are without PG D'Angelo Russell.  Their offense really bogs down and slows down without him.  They have been held to 96, 109 and 106 points in their last three games overall.

Memphis is 8-1 UNDER after losing four of its last five games this season.  The Lakers and Grizzlies have combined for 228 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings, which makes for a 5-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 228.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Nets OVER 234.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in offensive rating and 6th in pace this season.  The OVER is 6-2 in Thunder last six games overall with 249 or more combined points in five of those eight games.  They just combined for 279 with the Hawks and 250 with the Celtics in their last two games.

Now they get another Eastern Conference foe here in the Nets.  The Nets have gone under the total in four consecutive games, which has suppressed this total as a result.  But the Nets shot 42.9%, 38%, 35.7% and 38.7% from the floor in those four games, which were all on the road.  Now they are back home and primed to shoot it much better.

The Nets are scoring 115.9 points per game at home this season.  If they just get to their season average, which I think they will, we will cash this OVER ticket.  The Nets have allowed at least 110 points in 14 consecutive games.  Brooklyn is 18-6 OVER in its last 24 games off three consecutive losses by 10 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jazz/Celtics OVER 239.5

The Utah Jazz have gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The improvements have come on offense, where the Jazz have scored at least 116 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  But the Jazz rank 24th in defensive rating this season.  If they get to 116 points in this one, which they should, we are going to cash this OVER ticket.

The Celtics rank 2nd in offensive rating right behind the Pacers this season.  They are loaded on that end with Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, Holiday and White being pretty much unstoppable.  The Celtics have scored at least 120 points in eight consecutive games and will easily get 120-plus in this one.

The Celtics are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 235 or more combined points in all eight games, and 241 or more in six of those.  Utah is 26-13 OVER in its last 39 non-conference games.  Boston is 17-4 OVER in its last 21 games vs. Northwest Division opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +7.5

Wisconsin-Milwaukee just got its best player back from injury in BJ Freeman (20.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG).  Freeman averaged 17.0 PPG and 5.1 RPG last season for the Panthers.  He was out from November 25th to December 31st.

Freeman returned to action against Wright State last time out and poured in 23 points in a 91-83 victory.  He means everything to this team, and the Panthers should not be 7.5-point road underdogs to the Oakland Golden Grizzlies tonight with him in the lineup.

Oakland is 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall with the two wins coming against Eastern Michigan and Younstown State.  They were upset by 21 at home by IUP-FW, they were upset at home by Toledo, they lost by 17 at Michigan State, lost by 24 at Dayton and lost by 8 at Cleveland State.  The Golden Grizzlies aren't playing well enough right now to warrant being 7.5-point favorites here.

Oakland is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  Milwaukee is 149-113 ATS in its last 262 games as road underdogs.  The Golden Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet Wisconsin-Milwaukee Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Monmouth +3.5

Monmouth has been grossly undervalued all season going 7-6 SU & 9-3 ATS.  The highlights include an upset road win at West Virginia 73-65 as 14.5-point dogs, an upset win on a neutral over Belmont 93-84 as 6.5-point dogs, a narrow 4-point loss at Cornell as 12.5-point dogs, a narrow 9-point loss at Seton Hall as 14-point dogs, and an easy cover in a 16-point loss at Oklahoma as 22.5-point dogs.

Now Monmouth is back home where they are 4-1 SU this season with their lone loss to Princeton, which is 12-1 this season and one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  Towson State is not that.  The Tigers are also 7-6 this season while playing a much softer schedule than Monmouth.

The Tigers have played the 241st-ranked schedule in the country.  All six of their losses have come by 8 points or more.  The seven wins have come against Coppin State, Robert Morris, Morgan State, UMass, UMBC, Nicholls State and Arcadia.  They haven't beat a decent opponent yet with the exception of UMass.

Monmouth is 6-0 ATS after covering two of their last three games this season.  Bet Monmouth Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Hofstra -1

Hofstra is 1-4 SU in its last five games overall with all four losses coming on the road to Saint Louis, Duke, UNLV and St. John's.  They only lost by 5 to a very good St. John's team last time out.  They will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pride after losing four of their last five.  They have played a brutal schedule this season, a schedule that ranks 22nd-toughest in the entire country.  They have only played four home games all season and have shown well, beating South Florida 82-63 as 5.5-point home favorites and Norfolk State 74-58 as 9-point favorites in their last two home games.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on College of Charleston coming off five consecutive victories.  All five wins came at home against a very soft schedule.  They were last seen on the road losing 90-74 at Florida Atlantic as 14-point dogs on December 10th.  They also lost by 18 to Duquesne, by 9 to Vermont and by 7 to Wyoming on a neutral earlier this season.

Hofstra is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite.  The Price are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 conference games.  Hofstra is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after four straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers.  Bet Hofstra Thursday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on California/USC OVER 151.5

USC is really a dead nuts OVER team with loads of offensive talent but poor defensive chemistry.  That's why the Trojans are just 6-7 this season despite having so much talent.  They rank 84th in adjusted tempo, 63rd in adjusted offense and 84th in adjusted defense.

The Trojans just allowed 86 points to Oregon State, which is one of the worst offensive teams in the country.  They also allowed 82 points to Oregon the game before, plus 91 to Auburn, 84 to Long Beach State and 89 to Gonzaga recently.

California just allowed 100 points to Arizona, 88 to Ole Miss and 97 to Butler in some recent games.  The Golden Bears rank 120th in adjusted offense but just 237th in adjusted defense.  They also play faster than most teams ranking 169th in adjusted tempo.

California is 7-0 OVER as an underdog this season.  USC is 10-3 OVER in all games this season.  USC is 8-1 OVER in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Jazz OVER 237.5

The Utah Jazz are fully healthy right now and lighting it up offensively.  They have scored at least 116 points in seven of their last eight games overall and 10 of their last 12 games overall.  They will hang a big number on the Pistons, who rank 26th in defensive rating this season.

The Pistons have also gotten healthy in recent weeks which is why they have been more competitive and were able to snap their losing streak.  The Pistons have scored at least 111 points in eight consecutive games.  But they are so bad defensively, allowing at least 118 points in 12 consecutive games.  The OVER is 9-2 in Pistons last 11 games overall with 240 or more combined points in eight of those 11 games.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five games overall.

Detroit is 21-9 OVER as an underdog this season.  Utah is 17-6 OVER in its last 23 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  The Jazz are 25-13 OVER in their last 38 non-conference games.  The Pistons rank 6th in pace while the Jazz rank 11th, so we'll get the pace we need to cash this OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Stanford/UCLA ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on UCLA -4.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on UCLA and 'sell high' on Stanford tonight with the perfect storm here.  UCLA is 1-5 SU in its last six games overall as the Bruins have been one of the biggest disappointments in the country up to this point.

But I expect the Bruins to fire back here at home tonight against a Stanford team coming off one of the biggest wins of the entire season.  They throttled Arizona 100-82 at home on December 31st to pull off the upset as 12-point underdogs.  They shot a ridiculous 58.1% from the floor as everything they looked at went in.

Things won't come nearly as easily against UCLA, which ranks 39th in adjusted defense.  Remember, this is a Stanford team that lost by 22 to Northern Iowa, by 14 to San Diego State and by 12 to Santa Clara earlier this season.  That win over Arizona was the aberration, not the norm for this Cardinal team.

UCLA owns Stanford, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with all four wins coming by 9 points or more.  Jarod Haase is 4-12 ATS in road games off a conference win by 10 points or more as the coach of Stanford.  Mick Cronin is 10-2 ATS in home games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game as the coach of UCLA.  Bet UCLA Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Mavs OVER 236.5

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in pace, 10th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating.  Kyrie Irving just returned from injury against the Jazz last time out and was rusty.  The Mavericks scored 90 points and shot 39.8% from the floor as a team.  This total has been suppressed due to that result, and now it's a good time to 'buy low' on a Mavericks OVER.  Irving will be much sharper in his 2nd game back tonight.

It's also a good time to 'buy low' on a Blazers OVER after they scored 88 points on 41.2% shooting against the Suns last time out.  Anfernee Simons (27.1 PPG) has sat out the last three games with an illness.  I have to think he returns for the Blazers tonight.  Simons scored at least 23 points in six consecutive games prior to going down with Illness.  His presence on the court makes the Blazers an OVER team.  Shaeden Sharpe (16.4 PPG) also just returned from injury, while center DeAandre Ayton is out right now.  Ayton is their most important defender so it's good for us that he is out.

Dallas is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 home games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Mavericks are 14-3 OVER vs. a team with a losing record this season.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  The Blazers and Mavericks have combined for at least 237 points in five consecutive meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Hawks Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 247

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace, 6th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 9-3-1 in Atlanta's 13 home games this season where they are scoring 123.8 points per game on 48.4% shooting and allowing 125.4 points per game on 50.4% shooting.

The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 5th in offensive rating this season and are filling it up right now.  The Thunder have scored at least 116 points in 12 consecutive games and are averaging 121.5 points per game on 49.9% shooting this season.  They will get what they want on offense tonight, but they may have a letdown defensively after upsetting the Celtics last night.

The OVER is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings between the Thunder and Hawks including 269 and 254 combined points in a couple recent meetings.  Atlanta is 7-0 OVER  after losing four of its last five games this season.  Oklahoma City is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Cavs OVER 239

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.  But they do fill it up on offense with plenty of talent to get their points on a nightly basis.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are more of an OVER team this season than in year's past because they are shooting a lot more 3-pointers and playing faster.  They just went for 245 combined points with the Raptors in their last game, and I think we get 240-plus here with ease.

The Wizards and their opponents have combined for at least 241 points in 17 of their last 27 games overall.  Washington is 33-21 OVER in its last 54 games when the total is 230 or higher.  The Wizards are 13-3 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Cleveland) - off a road loss, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or less) are 27-5 (84.4%) since 1996.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Bucks/Pacers Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 258.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Well, this will already be the 5th meeting between the Pacers and Bucks this season.  They have combined for 250, 247, 266 and 235 points in those four meetings.  The Books have set the bar too high tonight.

The Pacers and Bucks just combined for 235 points in their 4th meeting just two days ago on January 1st.  It will be more of the same here as these teams know each other inside and out at this point and will be able to defend one another.  Injuries will also help us cash this UNDER with Middleton questionable for the Bucks and Brown and Nembhard questionable for the Pacers.

Milwaukee is 32-17 UNDER in its last 49 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Indiana) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 27-6 (81.8%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* New Mexico/Colorado State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado State -3.5

Colorado State is not only one of the best mid-major teams in the country but one of the very best college basketball teams in the country, period.  The Rams are 12-1 this season with their lone loss coming to St. Mary's when they were short-handed.  They have wins over two of the best teams in the country in Creighton (69-48) and Colorado (88-83), and they should be more than 3.5-point home favorites over New Mexico tonight.

Colorado State lost two key players in Jalen Lake and Josiah Strong for a stretch of games recently.  But they just got Lake (8.2 PPG) back from injury and will be getting Strong (8.5 PPG) back later this month.  And they still have four players averaging 12.2 PPG or more this season.

Somehow New Mexico has only played one true road game this season.  The Lobos nearly lost outright at New Mexico State in a 73-72 win as 14.5-point favorites in that lone true road game.  We know the Lobos dominate at home with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  But they struggle on the road, and I'll gladly fade them here in only their 2nd true road game this season.

Colorado State is 7-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season.  Colorado State is 5-1 SU in its last six meetings with New Mexico with all five wins coming by 6 points or more.  Bet Colorado State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Northwestern +6

Illinois just lost its best player in Terrence Shannon Jr. (21.7 PPG) to a suspension due to rape charges over Christmas Break.  That's a big blow to their season and a huge distraction right now.  They should not be favored by 6 over Northwestern tonight without Shannon Jr.

Northwestern is 10-2 this season with a win over Purdue.  The Wildcats have been a thorn in Illinois' side in recent meetings as well going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings not once losing by more than 7 points despite playing three of those on the road.

Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games after playing a game as a favorite.  The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games coming off an ATS loss.  Bet Northwestern Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Thunder NBA No-Brainer on OVER 240

Two of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Boston Celtics visit the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Celtics rank 2nd in offensive rating while the Thunder rank 6th.  Both teams are fully healthy right now as well so expect plenty of fireworks in this one.

I expect both the Thunder and Celtics to exceed 120 points in this one.  The Thunder have scoreda t least 119 points in six consecutive games and 116 or more in 11 consecutive games.  The Celtics have scored 120 or more points in seven consecutive games, and 114 or more in 12 consecutive games.

Oklahoma City is 18-4 OVER in its last 22 games off a home win by 10 points or more.  Boston is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games vs. Northwest Division opponents.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 267, 248 and 255 combined points.  The Thunder are 14-1 OVER in their last 15 games vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the best covering team in the NBA for three seasons running.  They just cannot seem to get the respect they deserve because they are a small market team.  They continue playing with a chip on their shoulder as a result.

Now they will prove themselves once again against the team that everyone is picking to win the NBA title in the Boston Celtics.  The Thunder are 22-9 SU & 22-8 ATS this season, including 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS at home where they are outscoring opponents by 8.5 points per game.  The Thunder (+8.7) rank 3rd in the NBA in net rating, only behind the Celtics (10.4) and 76ers (10.3).  This line should be much closer to PK when you look at net rating and factor in home-court advantage.

The Celtics have been vulnerable on the road where they are 10-6 SU & 6-8 ATS.  They were just taken to OT by the Pistons at home and won by 2 over the Raptors in two of their last three games.  They did blow out the Spurs on the road who were without Keldon Johnson, but everyone is beating the Spurs.

Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.  Boston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. good pressure defensive teams that force 15 or more turnovers per game.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue/Maryland UNDER 141.5

Maryland is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Terrapins rank 270th in adjusted tempo, 25th in adjusted defense and 134th in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight, and they will slow it down to a snail's pace to try and give themselves their best chance to upset Purdue.

The Boilermakers rank 9th in adjusted defense.  They always tend to play Maryland in low-scoring games home or away.  Indeed, the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 122, 113, 123 and 121 combined points scored in those four.  The UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings as well with 126 or fewer combined points in seven of their last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Mavericks/Jazz OVER 245

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in pace, 7th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating.  The Mavericks got great injury news heading into this one with Doncic and Exum participating in shootaround today, plus the big one in Irving also participating and expected to make his return.  They are really an OVER team when Irving is playing.

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy as well.  They rank 12th in pace and 24th in defensive rating, and are a much better offensive team when Markkanen and Clarkson are playing, which is the case right now.  The Jazz have scored at least 116 points in six of their last seven games overall.

Dallas is 21-11 OVER in all games this season.  Utah is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 home games when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more.  They gave up 147 points to the Mavericks in their first meeting this season.  The Mavericks are 14-2 OVER vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* CFB Playoff GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +4

The Washington Huskies have been doubted all season.  They got off to a blistering start, but then had a lull in their schedule where they were lacking motivation against inferior teams.  But they handled their business and won the games as they needed to.  They simply played to the level of their competition at times.

But when they stepped up in class, they also exceeded expectations.  They beat Oregon at home, upset Oregon State on the road and upset Oregon as double-digit underdogs in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  They outgained Oregon 483 to 353 for the game, or by 130 total yards.  They honestly should have won by more.

The Huskies had some key players banged up and playing through injury at the end of the season.  QB Michael Penix Jr. had a broken rib late in the year, RB Dillon Johnson was playing through injury and WR Jalen McMillan was also playing through injury.  This month break with their last game on December 1st will do wonders for these three.  Now the Huskies should be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.

Texas lost star RB Jonathan Brooks late in the season.  He has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 TD while averaging 6.1 per carry.  Backups CJ Baxter (4.6/carry) isn't nearly as explosive.  Texas also lost leading WR Xavier Worthy in the Big 12 Championship Game to injury.  He was seen limping and on crutches after the game.  While he is expected to play, he has admitted he won't be anywhere near 100%.  That's a big blow considering Worthy has 73 receptions for 969 yards and 5 TD this season.

Texas isn't going to have the firepower on offense to keep up with Washington.  And I like the matchup for this Washington offense up against this Texas defense.  The strength of the Longhorns is their run D, but you can throw on them.  That fits perfectly for what head coach Kalen DeBoer wants to do, which is throw it all over the yard.  The Huskies average 344 passing yards per game and 9.2 per attempt.  Texas allowed 305 passing yards to Baylor, 378 to Houston, 327 to Kansas State, 302 to TCU and 323 to Iowa State in Big 12 play.

Texas does have the better defense overall, but Washington's defense is better than it gets credit for.  The Huskies do allow you to move the ball between the 20's, but they were one of the best red zone D's in the country, which is why they only allow 23.6 points per game.  I think they can more than handle their own defensively, and this will be a step up in class for Texas' offense after facing an easy schedule of opposing defenses in the Big 12.

Washington beat Texas 27-20 last year in the bowl game.  There was nothing fluky about is as the Huskies racked up 445 total yards on the Longhorns.  It will be more of the same this year, except the difference is the Huskies are better than they were a year ago in their bowl game.  They will be able to play with a chip on their shoulder again listed as the underdog.  I fully expect the Huskies to win this game outright, but we will take the points for some insurance.  

Steve Sarkisian is 0-8 ATS vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game as the coach of Texas.  Kalen DeBoer is 10-1 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  I'll take DeBoer over Sarkisian every time with time to prepare.  Bet Washington in the Sugar Bowl Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Rockets OVER 227.5

The Houston Rockets have been a dead nuts OVER team since losing their best defender in Dillon Brooks to injury.  He doesn't provide much offensively.  The OVER is 3-0 in Rockets last three games overall with 240, 242 and 258 combined points.  This total of 227.5 is way too short tonight.

The Detroit Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season which is why they are playing much better of late.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pistons last seven games overall and we have seen 230 or more combined points in all seven games.  Again, this total of 227.5 is too low given those facts.

Detroit is 20-9 OVER as an underdog this season.  The Pistons are 9-1 OVER in road games vs. teams who attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season.  Detroit is 12-2 OVER vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  Houston is 16-6 OVER in its last 22 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% shooting or higher.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Alabama/Michigan Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Alabama +2

The wrong team is favored in the Rose Bowl.  Alabama will be the best team that Michigan has faced all season and I don't expect it to go well for them.  It will go similarly to how it did against TCU last year.  Michigan was upset by TCU, and TCU went on to lose by 56 to Georgia.  The SEC is simply king.

We saw that play out Saturday with Ole Miss upsetting Penn State 38-25 and Georgia blasting Florida State 63-3.  Missouri also upset Ohio State 14-3 the day prior.  Alabama beat both Ole Miss and Georgia to get here.

Michigan was able to bully teams in the Big Ten.  The Big Ten was a terrible offensive league this season.  Michigan won't be able to bully Alabama at the line is scrimmage.  Plus, Michigan hasn't faced the kind of athletes on offense that they will have to deal with in this one.  

QB Jalen Milroe is a physical specimen that can beat you with his arms and his legs.  Michigan won't be prepared because they haven't seen anything like him.  He completed 65.5% of his passes for 2,718 yards with a 23-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 468 yards and 12 scores on the ground.  I will take Milroe over Michigan's JJ McCarthy all day.  McCarthy hasn't been asked to do much this season because Michigan bullies everyone with their ground game, and he won't be prepared to need to do more in this one.

I like the fact that Alabama is the underdog in this one so Nick Saban can use that as a motivating tool that nobody believes in this team still, and they will be out to prove something.  The Crimson Tide upset Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to improve to 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  

Alabama is 7-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play this season.  Saban is 8-1 ATS vs. Big Ten opponents as the coach of Alabama.  Harbaugh is 4-12 ATS when playing with two or more weeks' rest as the coach of Michigan.  Bet Alabama in the Rose Bowl Monday.

20* Iowa/Tennessee Citrus Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 35

The Big Ten West was dreadful this season.  Iowa managed to win it with one of the worst offenses in college football history.  However, a lot of that had to do with them having to play some great defenses and very poor offenses.  Iowa isn't used to playing the type of team they will be up against in the Citrus Bowl.

Tennessee runs an up-tempo offense that is conducive to a lot of points being scored by both teams.  The Volunteers rank 3rd in the country in seconds per play on offense.  They are going to force Iowa into more of a track meet than they're used to, especially if the Volunteers jump out ahead like they are supposed to as the favorite.

11 of Tennessee's 12 games have seen 43 or more combined points.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 35-point total.  Starting QB Joe Milton has opted out of this bowl game, but that's the only real significant loss on offense for the Volunteers.  Many Tennessee fans wanted Nico Iamaleava to start over Milton this season anyway, and now he will get his shot in this bowl game.  Iowa won't know what to do to prepare for with him without game film on him.  Iamaleava is the top-ranked QB recruit in program history, and Josh Heupel and offensive coordinator Joey Halzle cannot wait to unleash him.

The biggest losses for the Volunteers as far as opt-outs are concerned are on defense.  Starting DE Tyler Baron, starting S Wesley Walker, starting CB Doneiko Slaughter, and starting slot CB Tamarion McDonald have all hit the transfer portal.  They have six players in the secondary that have hit the portal.  They will be without at least four starters and possibly more on defense.  Iowa will be able to move the football much easier than normal against this defense, which will be a big step down in class for them compared to what they are used to facing in the Big Ten.

Iowa losing CB/PR Cooper DeJean to injury late in the season is a big blow.  He was a unanimous 1st-team All-American.  Without having his leadership out there it's going to be much tougher sledding for this Iowa defense up against arguably the most high-powered offense they have seen all season.  Iowa's schedule of opposing offenses this season is an absolute joke playing in the Big Ten West, plus facing Western Michigan, Iowa State and Utah State in the non-conference.

Iowa's offense tends to bust out in bowl games, too.  The Hawkeyes have scored at least 20 points in 18 consecutive bowl games.  If they get to 20 in this one, it's going OVER the total.  Iowa and their opponents have combined for at least 35 points in 17 of their last 19 bowl games.  That makes for a 17-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 35-point total.  Bet the OVER in the Citrus Bowl Monday.

20* Packers/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 44

The Green Bay Packers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with 46 or more combined points in all five games.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Packers, especially matched up with another team that is playing to OVERS recently.  Plus, this game will be indoors in perfect conditions Sunday night in Minnesota.

Jordan Love has made the leap in the 2nd half of the season and is playing much better.  He has led the Packers to 19 or more points in eight consecutive games, including 27 or more three times in his last four games.  They put up 33 on a very good Carolina defense on the road last week.

But the Packers cannot stop anyone.  They have allowed 19 or more points in seven consecutive games.  That includes 30 to the Panthers, 34 to the Bucs and 24 to the Giants the last three weeks.  That's really poor when you consider those are three of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Packers won't have top CB Jaire Alexander to cover Justin Jefferson as he was suspended for one game for conduct detrimental to the team.

The Vikings will have the element of surprise this week going with rookie QB Jaren Hall.  It always seems to give the offense a spark in that first game with a new starter that nobody has film on.  While TE TJ Hockensen was lost for the season, WR Jordan Addison returned to practice this week.  Hall should have Addison to go along with one of the best receivers in the game in Justin Jefferson, plus the two-headed monster of Chandler and Mattison in the backfield.

Love has torched the blitz this season and will torch Minnesota's blitz-happy scheme as well.  The Vikings have really regressed defensively in recent weeks.  They allowed 27 points and 378 total yards to the Bengals two weeks ago and 30 points and 389 total yards to the Lions last week.

Green Bay is 22-4 OVER in its last 26 road games after allowing 25 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Packers are 6-0 OVER in their last six games following a win.  Minnesota is 6-0 OVER in its last six December home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Celtics/Spurs OVER 238.5

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  They play the Boston Celtics, who rank 4th in offensive rating and will hang a big number on them today.  I expect the Spurs to score enough themselves to push this one OVER the total.

Both teams are very healthy coming into this game, which is good for the OVER.  The keys for the Celtics to being an OVER team is having Porzingis, Tatum, Brown and White healthy, and all four are expected to play.  Jrue Holiday is questionable, but he's an elite defender so not having him for this OVER would be just fine.

The Celtics have scored at least 120 points in six consecutive games.  They have allowed 115 or more points in five of those six.  The OVER is 6-0 in Celtics last six games overall.  The OVER is 7-2 in Spurs last nine games overall.  They have scored 118 or more points in seven of those nine games.  They have allowed at least 114 points in eight of those nine games.

Boston is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after five straight games making 47% of their shots or better.  San Antonio is 13-2 OVER in home games this season.  The Spurs are 7-0 OVER after playing their last two games on the road this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5

I love the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  They are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off and will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days as well.  They want revenge on the Lakers after getting knocked out by them in the semifinals of the in-season tournament.

I like their chances of getting that revenge considering the Lakers are a tired team.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 3rd different city in 4 days after a 106-108 loss in Minnesota last night.  LeBron James and Anthony Davis each played 39 minutes in that game, and don't be surprised if one or both sit.  Plus, De'Angelo Russell got hurt in that game and is questionable to play tonight.

The Lakers have been pretty dreadful since winning the in-season tournament as they just lack motivation in these less important games.  They are 3-7 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  I don't expect a very good effort out of them tonight given the spot, and I conversely I expect a max effort from the revenge-minded Pelicans, who are fully healthy right now.

The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 games against the spread.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 49ers/Commanders OVER 48

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Sunday when the San Francisco 49ers visit the Washington Commanders.  The 49ers have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL but currently a leaky defense.  The Commanders have the single worst defense in the NFL currently but a capable offense.

The 49ers have scored 27 or more points in six of their last seven games overall.  The lone exception was the 19 against the Ravens, but they still managed 429 total yards despite scoring just 19 points due to committing five turnovers that took a bunch of points off the board.  The 49ers have been sub par defensively of late, allowing 29 points and 436 total yards to the Cardinals two weeks ago and 33 points and 343 yards to the Ravens last week.

The Commanders have allowed at least 28 points in six consecutive games now.  They just gave up 30 points to the lowly Jets lsat week.  They also allowed 31 to the Giants during this stretch, so everyone is scoring on them.  But the Commanders are going to Jacoby Brissett at QB, and he has led them on multiple TD drives in the 2H of two consecutive games replacing Sam Howell.  The Commanders keep coming with him under center and will keep coming even if they fall way behind the 49ers.

The 49ers will get 35 points in this one, so we only need 14 from the Commanders to cash this OVER ticket, and I don't see that being a problem.  The 49ers and their opponents have combined for at least 51 points in three of their last four games.  The Commanders and their opponents have combined for at least 48 points in six consecutive games.  They are 5-1 OVER in those six games and if not for a missed XP on their final score against the Rams would be 6-0.  

The forecast looks good for a shootout in this one with temps in the 50's, no precipitation and only 7 MPH winds in Washington.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Eagles OVER 47.5

Two leaky defenses square off against two mobile quarterbacks who can beat you with their arm and their leges.  This has shootout written all over it as the Arizona Cardinals visit the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday.

The Eagles got their offense back on track last week with 33 points and 465 total yards against the Giants.  Now they face an Arizona defense that is one of the worst in the NFL, allowing 26.9 points per game, 363 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  The Cardinals are severely banged up on defense to boot.

Arizona has been much better offensively with Kyler Murray at QB and a healthy James Connor at RB.  They put up 24 points and 150 rushing yards on the Steelers three games ago and 29 points and 234 rushing yards on the 49ers two weeks ago.  They will be able to run on this Philadelphia defense, which has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in six consecutive games.

This is also a very tired, banged up Philadelphia defense.  They have allowed 20 or more points in five consecutive games, including 34 points and 510 yards to the Bills, 42 points and 456 yards to the 49ers, 33 points and 394 yards to the Cowboys and 25 points to the lowly Giants last week.  The Cardinals will get their points as well.  I expect Philly to get to 31 and Arizona to get to at least 20 in this one.

The OVER is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 home games in the 2nd half of the season.  Arizona is 14-5 OVER in its last 19 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 61% completions or higher.  The forecast looks good with temps in the 40's and only 10 MPH winds expected in Philadelphia.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Texans -3.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the Houston Texans this week.  They lost CJ Stroud three weeks ago to a concussion against the Jets.  They haven't been the same team since.  They are coming off a 36-22 home loss to the Browns, and backup QB Case Keenum was terrible in that game.  He wasn't very good in their OT win over the Titans the week prior as well as he threw a Pick 6.

But now the Texans are expected to get back Stroud this week.  They should get back to being the same dominant, explosive offensive team they were before they lost him.  And some time on the sidelines can really do a rookie good to see the game from a different perspective.  I expect him to come back fresh and ready to go.

Now the Titans won't have the luxury of facing the Texans without Stroud, who they still lost to two weeks ago at home.  The Texans were only 3-point road dogs in that game and now 3.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  That adjustment isn't big enough for shifting home fields, plus replacing Keenum with Stroud.  The Texans should be much closer to a touchdown favorite in this one.

Houston has everything to play for as it is tied for 1st place in the AFC South with the Jaguars and Colts.  The Titans have been eliminated from playoff contention.  The Titans are also a very tired team playing five consecutive one score games, including the last four decided by 3 points or fewer.  But that won't be the case in this one.  I think the Titans are out of gas here, and they have one of the worst injury reports in the entire NFL, especially defensively.

The Titans have eight defenders either on IR or out for this one.  They have four more listed as questionable.  This is a very poor Tennessee defense, especially on the road.  The Titans are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in road games this season, allowing 23.9 points per game, 362.8 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Their offense has also been suspect on the road with 14.3 points per game, 268.4 yards per game and 5.2 per play.

The Texans outgained the Titans 340 to 204 in that first meeting with Keenum.  They held the Titans to 66 rushing yards on 30 attempts.  The key to stopping the Titans is stopping their running game, and few teams are better equipped at stopping the run than the Texans.  They allow just 91 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.  They have held six of their last eight opponents to 81 rushing yards or fewer.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

15* AFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Titans/Texans OVER 42.5

The Houston Texans get CJ Stroud back from a concussion after missing the last two games.  They should get back to being the same dominant, explosive offensive team they were before they lost him.  And some time on the sidelines can really do a rookie good to see the game from a different perspective.  I expect him to come back fresh and ready to go.

The Titans have eight defenders either on IR or out for this one.  They have four more listed as questionable.  This is a very poor Tennessee defense, especially on the road.  The Titans are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in road games this season, allowing 23.9 points per game, 362.8 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.

The Titans are expected to get Will Levis back at QB this week.  He is more of an 'OVER' QB than Ryan Tannehill, who prefers to dink and dunk.  Levis is not afraid to take deep shots, and he will make more mistakes than Tannehill will, which is good for OVERS.  You cannot run on this Houston defense, so the Titans are going to have to go with a pass-happy approach.  I also expect them to be trailing in this one like they were against Miami a few weeks ago and had to throw it a ton in a game that saw 55 combined points.

The Texans also have their fair share of injuries on defense including Will Anderson, Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins, who all missed practice on Thursday.  They have seven starters questionable for this one.  The Texans were lit up for 36 points and 418 total yards by the Browns last week.  The Titans will have their opportunities to score on this defense as well, especially through the air.

This total is too low due to these teams combining for just 35 points in their first meeting in Tennessee a few weeks ago.  But now Stroud replaces Keenum and there's value in the OVER 42.5 here.  They also go from playing an outdoor game on grass in the elements in Tennessee to perfect conditions inside the dome here in Houston.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Rams/Giants NFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 42

The Rams are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 48 or more combined points in all five games.  It would be 5-0 if not for a missed extra point by the Commanders.  They combined for 52 points with the Saints, 48 with the Commanders, 66 with the Ravens, 55 with the Browns and 51 with the Cardinals.  This total of 42 is very low for a game involving the Rams right now.

The Rams have been dynamic on offense with Stafford, Williams, Kupp and Nacua all healthy at the same time.  That has been the case for them during this offensive resurgence.  They are averaging 32.4 points per game and 433.8 yards per game in their last five games overall as the most dynamic offense in the NFL during this stretch.

Now they face a New York Giants defense that just allowed 33 points and 465 total yards to the Eagles last week.  The Giants allow 134 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, so Williams is in line for another big game on the ground.  That will open things up for Stafford in play-action.

I like the fact that the Giants are going with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback this week.  He is probably their best option.  Taylor led the Giants to 22 second-half points against the Eagles last week after they were held to just 3 points in the first half with Tommy DeVito.  Taylor went 7-of-16 passing for 133 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also rushing for 21 yards on his two attempts.  The Giants have all of their top playmakers healthy right now including RB Barkley and TE Waller.

The OVER is 4-2 in Giants last six games overall with 46 or more combined points in four of those six games.  The only two exceptions were against the Patriots in bad weather and up against a bad New England offense.  They also went under the total against the Saints, who also have one of the league's least-explosive offenses.  

The forecast looks good for a shootout in this one with temps in the 40's, sunny skies and single-digit winds at MetLife Stadium in New York.  The Rams allow 24.1 points per game on the road this season.  I'm expecting the Rams to get 27-plus in this one and the Giants to get to at least 20.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Rams -4.5

The Los Angeles Rams are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now since getting Stafford, Williams, Kupp and Nacua all healthy.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, which is a big reason for their resurgence.  And now they get extra time to rest and prepare for this game against the Giants after beating the Saints last Thursday.

The Rams are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Ravens in overtime.  The Rams are averaging 32.4 points per game and 433.8 yards per game in their last five games overall and have been one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL during this stretch.

Now they face a New York Giants defense that just allowed 33 points and 465 total yards to the Eagles last week.  The Giants allow 134 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, so Williams is in line for another big game on the ground.  That will open things up for Stafford in play-action.  The Giants could be without two starting defensive linemen in A'Shawn Robinson and Dexter Lawrence this week to make matters worse for them.  Their injury list is as long as any in the NFL right now.

Tyrod Taylor is an upgrade over Tommy DeVito for the Giants at quarterback.  However, it's not a big enough upgrade to warrant this line getting bet down from 6.5 to 4.5 when it was announced Taylor would start.  The Rams have extra time to prepare for Taylor's skill set, so he won't be catching anyone off guard like he did against the Eagles in the 2H last week.  I just don't think the Giants have the firepower to keep up with the Rams in this one, and I have the Rams winning by a TD or more as a result.  The Giants average 14.3 points per game and 263.7 yards per game on the season, including 10.2 points per game and 259.3 yards per game at home.

The Rams know that if they win this game they likely lock up a playoff spot and then can rest their starters next week against the 49ers.  That's why they won't be looking ahead to that game against San Francisco, especially since they have extra time to prepare after having last Thursday off.  Sean McVay's teams get better as the season progresses, which is evident in the fact that the Rams are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 December games.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Cowboys OVER 52

The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions are both dead nuts OVER teams, especially when the games are played indoors.  The Cowboys are averaging 39.9 points per game at home this season while the Lions are averaging 31.8 points per game in dome games, which includes their seven home games and road games at the Chargers, Saints and Vikings.  That's an average of over 70 combined points per game in indoor games for their offenses.  This total of 52 is too low.

Dallas will get its offense back on track this week after having to go outdoors and play two very good defenses in the Bills and Dolphins the last two weeks.  Both of those outdoor games went under the total, which has provided us some line value to back the OVER in this one.  Now they face a bad Lions defense that allows 25.3 points per game, 351.1 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.

The OVER is 6-1 in Detroit's last seven games overall.  Detroit and their opponents have combined for at least 51 points in six of those seven games, including 54 or more five times.  That includes games against poor offensive teams in the Bears, Saints, Broncos and Vikings.  Now they get to face another great offense that can match them, and what is an overrated Dallas defense that has been exposed in recent weeks.

Detroit is 8-2 OVER in turf games this season.  Dallas is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 home games after the first month of the season.  The Lions are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games following a win.  Both offenses have all of their top playmakers on offense healthy, while both defenses are missing key players to injury.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +5

The Detroit Pistons have tied the NBA record for longest losing streak in history at 28 games.  They don't want to be the sole owners of this streak, and I expect them to win outright tonight.  We will take the points for some insurance.

The Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season and are trending in the right direction.  They are 2-0 ATS in their last two games and played well in both.  They only lost by 6 to the Nets as 6.5-point underdogs, and then took the Celtics to OT as 17-point underdogs.  They even led the Celtics by 20-plus points early in that game.

Now the Pistons are in a favorable spot here playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  The Raptors are in a terrible spot, playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They are coming off a deflating 118-120 loss at Boston last night and won't have much left in the tank for the Pistons.  

Keep in mind Boston was missing Tatum and Porzingis last night and was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, so the fact that they hung with the Celtics isn't very impressive as they closed as 4.5-point dogs.  Siakam played 40 minutes, Barnes 38, Anunoby 37 and Schroder 34 for the Raptors last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pistons, and they could choose to rest a starter or two.

The Raptors are 4-10 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall, so it's not like they are playing well enough to warrant being 5-point road favorites here.  The Pistons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Raptors.  That includes 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with Toronto.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UNC-Wilmington/Arkansas OVER 146.5

The books have missed their mark setting this total below 150 between UNC-Wilmington and Arkansas, two great offensive teams that can fill it up.  Arkansas ranks 99th in adjusted tempo and 66th in adjusted offense and is scoring 80.3 points per game on 47.6% shooting on the season.

Wilmington ranks 98th in adjusted offense this season and is putting up 85.4 points per game on 48% shooting, including 38.7% shooting from 3-point range.  They won't be intimidated by the Razorbacks as they already beat Kentucky 80-73 as 18-point road dogs.

Each of Wilmington's last four games have seen 147 or more combined points.  They have gone for 147 or more combined points in eight of their 11 games this season.  Better yet, Arkansas has gone for 149 or more combined points in 11 of its 12 games this season.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 146.5-point total.  

Arkansas is 10-2 OVER in all games this season, including 7-0 OVER in all home games this season.  The Razorbacks are 17-4 OVER in their last 21 home games with a total set of 140 to 149.5.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* College Football Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Wyoming ML -165

Legendary head coach Craig Bohl has announced he will retire after the Arizona Bowl.  These players desperately want to get him a win in his final game, and no team will be more motivated than the Cowboys this bowl season.  I like putting my money on teams that I know will be motivated.

The Cowboys only had one player hit the transfer portal in CB Kolbey Taylor.  RT Caden Barnett won't play in the bowl due to injury, but backup Jack Walsh started for him in the final two games this season.  Bohl has said that everyone else appears to be healthy and playing in this bowl game.

Toledo will be without starting QB Dequan Finn and starting LG Vinny Scuiry.  CB Quinyon Mitchell may decide to opt out as well.  The loss of Finn is massive.  He completes 63.4% of his passes for 2,657 yards with a 22-to-9 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He has also rushed for 563 yards and seven TD, and backup QB Tucker Gleason just doesn't threat opponents with his legs like Finn does.

Just this week, Toledo star RB Penny Boone announced he would be hitting the transfer portal, which means he's likely opting out of this bowl game.  Boone has rushed for 1,400 yards and 15 TD while averaging 7.2 per carry.  He and Finn account for basically all of their production on the ground, combining for nearly 2,000 rushing yards and 22 TD.

Toledo lost as a 6.5-point favorite in the MAC Championship Game to Miami Ohio by a final of 23-14.  The Rockets do not want to be here.  Wyoming plays a very similar style to Miami Ohio.  They don't wow you offensively, but they are elite defensively and make everything difficult for their opponents.  Now they get to go up against a Toledo offense without their starting QB & RB.

Wyoming ended the season by blasting Hawaii 42-9 at home as 13-point favorites and crushing Nevada 42-6 on the road as 10.5-point favorites.  They do want to be here and have earned their way.  They also beat Texas Tech, Appalachian State and Fresno State earlier this season while giving Texas all they wanted for three quarters on the road.  They are battle-tested to say the least.  Wyoming played the 73rd-toughest schedule this season while Toledo played the 130th in the weak MAC.

Jason Candle is 0-7 ATS when playing with two or more weeks' rest as the coach of Toledo.  Bohl is 17-6 ATS following two or more consecutive wins as the coach of Wyoming.  I'm confident the Cowboys are going to get the win for Bohl, but I don't want to lay -3.5 in what is expected to be a low-scoring game.  So I'll lay the extra juice on the Money Line instead.  Bet Wyoming on the Money Line in the Arizona Bowl Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana State +9

Indiana State is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Sycamores are 11-1 this season with their lone loss coming on the road to Alabama.  They rank 34th in adjusted offense and can fill it up, and they are improved defensively ranking 101st in adjusted defense.  I think they can give Michigan State a run for its money today.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Spartans.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But we saw the Spartans get upset earlier this season at home by another great mid-major in James Madison as 16.5-point favorites.  This could be a flat spot for the Spartans coming off Christmas Break and with a Big Ten game against Penn State on deck.

Indiana State is 30-16 ATS in its last 46 games overall.  The Sycamores are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games off a win by 10 points or more.  Bet Indiana State Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Nuggets OVER 235.5

The Denver Nuggets are fully healthy right now with the exception of Aaron Gordon, who is their best defender.  They just hung 142 points on the Grizzlies last night, who are a very good defensive team.  They have scored at least 113 points in nine of their last 10 games overall, including 120 or more six times.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have scored at least 116 points in nine consecutive games, including 120 or more seven times.  I think both teams can get to 120 tonight, which is more than enough to cash this OVER 235.5 ticket.

The Thunder are 25-10 OVER in their last 35 games following a home win.  The OVER is 7-2 in Thunder last nine games overall with 235 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on 76ers/Rockets OVER 224

The Houston Rockets are without two key defenders right now in Dillon Brooks and Jabari Smith that will really take away from them defensively.  They have had a great defensive season, but we saw how it went without Brooks against the Suns last time out.  They lost a 129-113 shootout to the Suns and 242 combined points.

The 76ers go more small ball without Embiid and play faster.  They have gone for 232 or more combined points in three of their last four games overall.  They also take a hit defensively without Embiid.

The OVER is 20-10 in all 76ers games this season largely due to them ranking 3rd in offensive rating.  The 76ers and Rockets have combined for at least 226 points in seven of their last eight meetings, making for a 7-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 224-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Memphis/Iowa State OVER 57

The Memphis Tigers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-2 OVER in all games this season.  We have seen 61 or more combined points in eight of Memphis' last nine games overall.  This total of 57 is too low for a game involving the Tigers.

Memphis is putting up 39.7 points per game, 453.2 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  QB Seth Hanigan is expected to play and have all of his top playmakers for this contest.  Hanigan is completing 66.5% of his passes for 3,519 yards with a 28-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  Blake Watson has rushed for 1,045 yards and 14 TD on 5.9 per carry.  Roc Taylor (61 receptions, 981 yards, 4 TD) and Dameer Blankumsee (51, 825, 6 TD) are his top two target.  They will only be without RT Makylan Pounders and RG Davion Carter, but backups Mitchell Gildehaus and Terrance McClain have experience taking their place.

Memphis allows 29.0 points per game, 424.6 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Tigers will be without starting CB Julian Barnett, starting S Cameron Smith and backup BUCK Andres Fox.  Smith is the fourth-leading tackler and a big blow in the secondary for an already suspect Memphis defense.

Iowa State scored 42 points on Kansas State and 45 points on BYU in two of its final three games.  They are going to score at will on this Memphis defense.  The Cyclones will have all of their starters available offensively.  On defense, they will be without CB TJ Tampa, who is an NFL corner.  They could also be without starting S Malik Verdon, leaving their secondary short-handed against Memphis' pass-happy attack.  The Cyclones allowed 281-plus passing yards in three of their final four games this season.

I expect Iowa State to score 35-plus in this one and Memphis to get to at least 28.  Memphis is 7-0 OVER following a conference game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Blazers OVER 233.5

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 6-1 in Spurs last seven games overall with 241 or more combined points in six of those seven.  This total of 233.5 is too low for a game involving the Spurs right now.

The Blazers are more of an OVER team in their current state because they have all of their key guards healthy, plus they are without center DeAndre Ayton, who is their eraser inside.  They have gone more small ball lately.  The OVER is 6-3 in Blazers last nine games overall with 232 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Spurs and Blazers with 256, 264 and 240 combined points in those three.  San Antonio is 20-9 OVER in all games this season.  Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 210 or higher (Portland) - after a win by 10 points or more against an opponent that is off four consecutive losses by 10 points or more are 22-3 (88%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Jets/Browns AFC No-Brainer on OVER 33.5

The Cleveland Browns have been a dead nuts OVER team since getting Joe Flacco.  Their pass rate has gone through the roof with 44 or more pass attempts in all four games he has started.  The Browns and their opponents have combined for 58, 37, 58, 55 and 41 points in their last five games overall.  As you can see, all five games would have gone over this short 33.5-point total, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER.

The New York Jets and their opponents have combined for at least 36 points in four of their last six games overall.  It doesn't take much for an NFL game to top 33.5 combined points, especially with 34 being a very key number with 17-17, 20-14, 21-13 and 24-10 being four common scores that would get us to the OVER.

The Jets are also throwing the ball a ton right now with 36 or more attempts in five consecutive games.  Trevor Siemian threw it 49 times against the Commanders last week in leading the Jets to 30 points.  Both teams are pretty much fully healthy on offense from a playmakers perspective, which is something I want when backing an OVER.

Kevin Stefanski is 8-1 OVER in home games after gaining 400 or more yards last game as the coach of Cleveland.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Pelicans OVER 238.5

The Utah Jazz are back to being a dead nuts OVER team now that they are fully healthy getting both Markkanen and Clarkson back.  The OVER is 3-1 in Jazz last four games overall with 240, 230, 245 and 248 combined points.

The New Orleans Pelicans have faced a brutal schedule of opposing defenses here of late with games against the Grizzlies (twice), Rockets and Cavaliers.  The scoring in those four games was suppressed, but now the Pelicans get a reprieve here against the Jazz, who rank 24th in defensive rating.

This game will play out similarly to recent games against the Wizards and Spurs.  The Pelicans beat the Spurs 146-110 for 256 combined points and the Wizards 142-122 for 264 combined points.  Both the Spurs and Wizards have similar profiles to the Jazz as dead nuts OVER teams who play poor defense.

Utah is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games when paying just its 2nd game in 5 days.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NC State/K-State Pop-Tarts Bowl ANNIHILATOR on NC State +2.5

The NC State Wolfpack are highly motivated to get their 10th win of the season.  They quietly played some of the best football int he country down the stretch, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games with upset wins over Clemson, Miami, UNC and Virginia Tech.  They also smoked Wake Forest by 20 in what looked to be a clear letdown spot.  Now they are once again underdogs to Kansas State when they should be favored in this game when you factor in all that the Wildcats will be missing.

Kansas State won the Big 12 last year and got a big bowl game as a result against Alabama.  This is actually a letdown for them to be playing n the Pop-Tarts Bowl.  The Wildcats have nine players in the transfer portal including QB Will Howard, so that leaves Avery Johnson as the expected starter at QB.  They also had starting S Kobe Savage and starting CB Will Lee hit the transfer portal, plus starting WR Phillip Brooks and starting TE Ben Sinnott transfer out, which are their two biggest weapons on offense.  DT Uso Deumalo was on crutches in the finale, and LB Jake Clifton was lost for the season after Week 11 after the Wildcats were already without starting MLB Daniel Green and freshman backup Asa Newsom.  Offensive coordinator Collin Klein accepted the same job at Texas A&M as well.

NC State should have all hands on deck for this game in terms of starters outside of NT CJ Clark.  That just goes to show you how 'all in' the Wolfpack are to get their 10th win of the season.  I'll gladly side with the more motivated team with a all of their best players available against the team that lacks motivation with a ton of key opt-outs and transfers down to a backup QB.  Bet NC State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl Thursday.

20* Rutgers/Miami Pinstripe Bowl No-Brainer on Rutgers ML +100

Rutgers actually qualified for a bowl not due to academics with 6 wins for the first time since 2014.  It's safe to say the Scarlet Knights want to be here, and head coach Greg Schiano is 5-1-1 ATS in bowl games in his head coaching career.

Rutgers will have a huge home-field advantage in this one with the short trip to The Bronx for fans to come watch this team play.  It's only an hour drive from campus.  They are a cold weather team used to the elements going up against a warm weather team in Miami that wants nothing to do with having to play in the cold weather and this bowl game up in the Northeast.

While Rutgers only had one key player opt out of this game in CB Max Melton, the losses are large for Miami with transfers and opt-outs.  They will be down to third-string QB Jacurri Brown with starting QB Tyler Van Dyke transferring to Wisconsin and backup QB Emory Williams injured.  The Hurricanes will also be without fellow starters in WR Colbie Young, LB Corey Flagg, EDGE Jahfari Harvey, CB Daryl Porter Jr., S Kamren Kinches, S Jamal Williams, DT Leonard Taylor, C Matt Lee and LG Javion Cohen.  The Hurricanes are likely to be without four starters on offense and five or six on defense.

Schiano is 38-20 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Mario Cristobal is 4-12 ATS after the first month of the season as the coach of Miami.  We are getting the better head coach and the team that wants to be here more at a PK, which is an absolute steal.  Bet Rutgers on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Texas A&M/Oklahoma State Texas Bowl BAILOUT on Oklahoma State ML -130

The Texas A&M Aggies have been absolutely gutted in the transfer portal and in the coaching staff.  Jimbo Fisher was fired and offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino left for the same job at Arkansas.  Elijah Robinson will serve as the interim for the bowl game, but he has his forced on Syracuse where he will be their defensive coordinator.  The rest of the staff is in flux as well.

Third-string QB Jaylen Henderson will get the start with QB Max Johnson off to North Carolina.  Other starters missing are WR Evan Steward, RT Chase Bisontis, EDGE Fadil Diggs, S Bryce Anderson, DL Walter Nolen, CB Tyreek Chappell, CB Deuce Harmon, WR Ainias Smith, LB Edgerrin Cooper, DT McKinnley Jackson and RG Layden Robinson.  That's 12 starters they are expected to be without, plus several other backups in the transfer portal and possibly starting C Bryce Foster and WR Moose Muhammad.

Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy is one of the best bowl head coaches in the country.  His 11 bowl wins rank him among the Top 10 all-time in college football.  Oklahoma State clearly wants to be here as the only potential starter missing would be LB Collin Oliver, but I'm guessing he plays.  Star RB Ollie Gordon I (1,614 yards, 20 TD, 6.3/carry) is going to play, which is all you need to know about how much the Cowboys want to be here.

I'll gladly side with the more motivated team in the Cowboys up against the team that wants nothing to do with this bowl game in the Aggies.  Bet Oklahoma State on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Magic OVER 224.5

The Orlando Magic have gone for at least 227 combined points in three consecutive games.  The Philadelphia 76ers have gone for at least 232 combined points in three consecutive games while going OVER in all three.  The OVER is now 11-3 in 76ers last 14 games overall.

The 76ers are playing faster without Joel Embiid right now, and they are going with more small ball, which is beneficial to OVERS.  The 76ers rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating, largely due to the fact that they have a lot more talent on this roster outside Embiid than most realize, especially at the guard positions.  They rank 12th in pace and like I said play faster without having to run the offense through Embiid.  But they are much worse off defensively without him.

Philadelphia is 20-9 OVER in all games this season.  The 76ers are 10-2 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* UNC/West Virginia Mayo Bowl No-Brainer on West Virginia -6.5

The UNC Tar Heels are going to be without a ton of starters for this game, so this is more of a fade of them than anything.  They will be without five players who will be entering the NFL Draft in QB Drake Maye, LB Cedric Gray, C Corey Gaynor, WR Tez Walker and DL Myles Murphy.  They are missing five other starters due to injury in TE John Copenhaver, WR Byson Nesbit, WR Kobe Paysour, CB Alijah Huzzie and S Will Hardy.  Seven other backups hit the transfer portal.

West Virginia will have its full compliment of starters for this one with the exception of C Zach Frazier, who is one of the top centers in the 2024 NFL Draft.  He is only missing this game due to surgery.  Head coach Neal Brown and his players will be 'all in' to try and get a win here when you look at all the players expected to play.

West Virginia is a run-heavy team that averages 236 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry this season.  They will be up against a UNC defense that allows 178 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.  And now this defense won't have several key players at LB, on the defensive line and in the secondary.  But the losses are bigger for UNC's offense, which will be without its QB and all of its top weapons.

The bottom line is WVU cares about this bowl game while UNC does not, and the matchup favors them as well as they will be winning that battle at the line is scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Getting the Mountaineers at anything less than a TD favorite here is a discount.  Bet West Virginia in the Duke's Mayo Bowl Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder want revenge on the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They knocked the Thunder out of the playoffs last year in the play-in round with a 120-95 victory at home.  They also beat the Thunder 106-103 at home in their first meeting this season.

But now the Thunder finally get the Timberwolves at home in Oklahoma City, and they will get their revenge tonight.  The Thunder are 18-9 SU & 18-8-1 ATS this season, including 10-5 SU & 10-5 ATS at home.  The Timberwolves have just one loss at home all season, but five losses on the road.  Minnesota could be without Karl-Anthony Towns, who is questionable.

Oklahoma City is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Thunder are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after playing three consecutive home games.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets -3

The Houston Rockets are 12-2 SU & 12-2 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 12.3 points per game at home this year, where they have been grossly undervalued.  That is the case again tonight as only 3-point home favorites over the struggling Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers have struggled since the in-season tournament.  They are just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone win coming at home against the lowly Hornets.  They lost by 14 in Milwaukee, by 14 in Washington, by 18 in Minnesota and by 13 in Memphis in their four road games during this stretch.

While the Rockets are fully healthy, the Pacers will be without Bruce Brown (11.6 PPG), who was their biggest offseason acquisition.  Indiana is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games after two straight games where they allowed 50% shooting or higher.  Houston is 15-2 ATS following an ATS win this season.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Bulls OVER 233.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace, 5th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating.  This total of 233.5 is a very low total for a game involving the Hawks.

The OVER is 9-3 in Hawks last 12 games overall.  They have gone for 235 or more combined points in 10 of their last 12 games overall.  They take on a Bulls team that has changed offensive philosophy since losing Zach LaVine to shoot more 3-pointers and layups instead of mid-range jumpers.  

It has worked wonders as the Bulls are 8-4 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and they have scored at least 111 points in nine of those 12 games.  The OVER is 11-4 OVER in their last 15 games overall.

Atlanta is 12-4 OVER following a loss this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/49ers OVER 45.5

The San Francisco 49ers have been an offensive juggernaut when healthy this season.  That basically means when they have had Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel and CMC on the field at the same time.  They got all three back healthy coming out of their bye week and have gone 6-0 since, scoring at least 27 points in every win while averaging 34.5 points per game in those six games.

The 49ers will get their points against a Baltimore defense that benefited from the Jaguars beating themselves offensively last week.  They drove inside the Baltimore 40 a handful of times and only had 7 points to show for it.  The 49ers will capitalize on their opportunities as they are one of the best red zone offenses in the NFL.  They will capitalize similar to the Rams, who put up 31 points and 449 yards on the Ravens the week prior in a 31-37 (OT) defeat.  This one will be a similar shootout.

The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in six of their last eight games overall.  They have their best offense of the Lamar Jackson era, averaging 27.4 points per game, 374.1 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They haven't been as good as the 49ers, who average 30.4 points per game, 402.6 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play, but they are still one of the top offenses in the NFL.

The 49ers just allowed 29 points and 436 total yards to the Cardinals last week.  A big reason for their struggles defensively last week were injuries as they were missing LB Oren Burks, DT Javon Hargrave and DT Arik Armstead.  CB Deomodore Lenoir also suffered an injury in that game.  Burks, Hargrave and Armstead all missed practice again Thursday after sitting out last week, a bad sign for their availability Monday.  Lenoir did return to practice.

The 49ers struggle to defend mobile quarterbacks which is why Kyler Murray and the Cardinals had so much success against them last week.  They rushed for 234 yards on the 49ers.  Now the 49ers must face Lamar Jackson and a Baltimore offense that averages 164 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  But the 49ers should have success on the ground as well to open things up for Brock Purdy.  The Ravens have allowed at least 128 rushing yards in five of their last nine games overall.

I expect the 49ers to 30-plus in this one and the Ravens to get 20-plus.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Celtics/Lakers ABC ANNIHILATOR on Boston -2.5

The Boston Celtics are the best team in the NBA, period.  They should be more than 2.5-point favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers today.  The Celtics aren't distracted and are on a business trip here in the midst of a four-game road trip.

After opening it with a OT loss at Golden State, the Celtics have been on a mission since.  They dominated the Kings 144-119 in Sacramento despite being on the 2nd of a back-to-back and off an OT game.  They had the next two days off and then crushed the Clippers 145-108 in Los Angeles on Saturday.  Now they will be rested and ready to go against the hated Lakers today.

The Lakers have been terrible since winning the in-season tournament.  They are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their seven games since the tournament.  They are banged up and distracted right now.  They have been on the road for eight of their last nine games and haven't been able to spend much time with family at home.  They have a lot of obligations to deal with back home for Christmas, which is a big distraction for them.  I like the mental state of the Celtics much more heading into this one.

The Lakers are 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games following a road win.  Boston is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Celtics are 4-1 SU in their last five meetings with the Lakers.  Bet the Celtics Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Nuggets OVER 233

The Golden State Warriors are without their two best defenders right now in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II.  They are even more of a dead nuts OVER team without them, and they have been for weeks now.

The OVER is 14-6 in Warriors last 20 games overall.  They have scored at least 118 points in five consecutive games while allowing at least 114 points in seven of their last eight games.  The Warriors and their opponents have combined for at least 232 points in eight consecutive games.

The Denver Nuggets are fully healthy right now and potent offensively when that's the case.  They have scored at least 114 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  I think both teams can get to 115-plus in this one, which will lead to us easily cashing this OVER 233 ticket.

Golden State is 11-2 OVER when revenging a loss this season.  The Warriors are 13-4 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Golden State is 14-4 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make at least 46% of their shots this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay Bucs ML -128

I was leaning toward the Bucs all week but I had to make sure that QB Trevor Lawrence was going to be out for the Jaguars.  As soon as I got that information I pulled the trigger on the Bucs.  Lawrence missed practice again Thursday and sources say he is unlikely to play due to a concussion and an ankle injury.

The Jaguars are in real trouble without him as they have one of the worst backup QB's in the NFL in CJ Bethard, which is saying something.  Bethard has a very hard time reading a defense and loves to just check it down or take off and run, and he's not very fast or athletic.  The Jaguars are going to be in a world of hurt offensively in this one, especially without WR Christian Kirk and WR Zay Jones as well.

The Jaguars are already in a world of hurt defensively, allowing 29.3 points per game and 425.3 yards per game during their current three-game losing streak.  Two of those games came against backup QB's in Joe Flacco and Jake Browning and the other was against the Ravens.  Now they must face Baker Mayfield and a Tampa Bay offense that is absolutely humming right now.

The Bucs are 3-0 in their last three games overall and gaining confidence with each win.  They are trying to win this game and grab a stranglehold on this division.  Mayfield is playing the best football of his career, putting up 29 points on the Falcons two weeks ago and 34 points on the Packers last week.  He had a perfect passer rating against the Packers, going 22-of-28 passing for 381 yards with 4 TD and zero INT while averaging 13.6 per attempt.

The Bucs are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  Their entire starting 11 on offense is healthy, and they have been missing some key players on defense that they are likely to get back this week.  NT Vita Vea, DT William Gholston, CB Carlton Davis III, S Ryan Neal, CB Jamel Dean, LB Lavonte David and LB Devin White have all missed time recently.  Amazingly, all seven are expected to play this week.  The stock on the Bucs is very much on the rise due to this return to health defensively.  Bet the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans ML -135

Note: Merry Christmas! Those of you who bought this play later in the week get a much better line on the Texans at +3/+2.5 than I did when I hit the opener on Sunday night. I apologize to those who bet it early with me and got a worse line than current, which rarely happens. I expected CJ Stroud to return from a concussion, but it's going to be Case Keenum instead.   I added more money at +3.  I still expect the Texans to win this game even with Keenum.  This play was more of a fade of the Browns than anything.  Here's why:

The Cleveland Browns have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL at home but the 31st-ranked scoring defense on the road.  They allow 30.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  The Browns have three players on IR and five more questionable on defense.  The Texans have been at their best offensively at home, averaging 24.7 points per game, 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play at home this season.

Veteran Case Keenum went on the road last week and beat the Titans.  He rebounded from an early pick-6 to lead the comeback victory in OT.  He will be much more comfortable in his 2nd game in this offensive scheme, which is one of the most diverse in the league.  Devin Singletary had 170 yards from scrimmage against the Titans to take pressure off Keenum.  

The Texans have gotten some key weapons back healthy on offense recently in Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz, plus Nico Collins returned to practice this week.  Also expected to play are OT Laremy Tunsil, G Shaq Mason, WR John Metchie, S Jimmie Ward and LB Denzel Perryman as the injury report came out pretty clean on Thursday compared to what most were expecting.

Joe Flacco is getting way too much love right now.  He has beaten a hobbled Trevor Lawrence and a flat-lining Jaguars team at home.  He needed a 10-point comeback in the 4th quarter to beat the Bears at home last week.  And in his lone road start, he lost 35-19 to the Rams.  Flacco has thrown 5 interceptions in his three starts and is playing behind the most banged-up offensive line in the NFL.  The Browns are missing their top three offensive tackles, and currently four more projected starters are questionable or doubtful.  Flacco and this offensive line will get exposed on the road this week in a hostile environment against a solid Houston defense.

The Browns are 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road this season and getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play away from home.  Kevin Stefanski is 5-17 ATS games after covering the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of Cleveland.  The Browns are 14-36 ATS in their last 50 games vs. good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or fewer yards per carry.  Houston will win this game outright.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Colts/Falcons OVER 43.5

The Indianapolis Colts are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-4 OVER in all games this season.  They run an up-tempo, creative offense under Shane Steichen and have a terrible defense.  The Colts are expected to get their two biggest playmakers back on offense this week in WR Michael Pittman Jr. and RB Jonathan Stewart.

Now they hit the road to face an Atlanta Falcons team that is also built for more OVERS, especially with the upgrade of Taylor Heineke at QB.  Arthur Smith said Heineke will start the rest of the way as he is tired of watching Desmond Ridder and this offense struggle in the red zone with dumb turnovers.  He had another key turnover as the Falcons were trying to put the game away late in a 9-7 loss to the Panthers in terrible weather conditions outdoors last week.  That score is suppressing this total as well and providing us with some line value on the OVER.

The Falcons have been much more potent offensively at home.  They score 23.3 points per game, averaging 388 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play at home.  But they have a poor defense that has allowed 25 or more points in four of their last seven games.  Both teams will get their points in this one.

The Falcons have rushed for 122 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall.  I like this matchup for their offense up against a Colts defense that has allowed 111 or more rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall.  But the Colts will get their points as well as they always do, putting up 27 or more points in six of their last eight games overall.

Indianapolis is 8-2 OVER in games played on turf this season.  The Colts are 25-7 OVER in their last 32 road games after covering the spread in four of their last five games.  Plays on the OVER on all teams against the total (Atlanta) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent in the 2nd half of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Texans OVER 41.5

Note: I grabbed this OVER 41.5 Sunday night with the anticipation it would move higher once CJ Stroud was announced in.  Now that he's not playing it has only been adjusted down to 40 as of this writing.  I love the OVER 40 even with Case Keenum starting in his place.  Here's why:

The Cleveland Browns have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL at home but the 31st-ranked scoring defense on the road.  They allow 30.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  The OVER is 6-0 on all Cleveland road games as a result.

The Browns have also been much better offensively on the road than they have been at home.  They are scoring 24.2 points per game on the road.  Now they get to go play indoors with perfect scoring conditions in Houston.  This total of 40 is way too low for a road game involving the Browns.

Cleveland has gone to a pass-happy scheme since signing Joe Flacco.  They attempted 45 passes against the Bears, 45 against the Jaguars and 44 against the Rams.  All these pass attempts stop the clock more often and are beneficial to OVERS.  They are trying to get the ball out of Flacco's hand quick to help make up for injuries on the offensive line.  And Flacco has shown he's still one of the best deep ball throwers in the game.

This total has been adjusted down too much off the news that CJ Stroud is unlikely to play for a second straight week.  Veteran Case Keenum went on the road last week and beat the Titans.  He rebounded from an early pick-6 to lead the comeback victory in OT.  He will be much more comfortable in his 2nd game in this offensive scheme, which is one of the most diverse in the league.  Devin Singletary had 170 yards from scrimmage to take some of the pressure off Keenum last week, and he has emerged as a serious weapon in this offense.

Both Flacco and Keenum are prone to turnovers as Flacco has already thrown five interceptions in his three starts, while Keenum threw that terrible Pick 6 last week.  These turnovers could certainly help set up some easy scoring opportunities for both of these offenses.  Plus, these offenses will be up against two injury-ravaged defenses, and this is as much a play against these defenses as anything.

The Browns have three players on IR and five more questionable on defense.  The Texans have five players on IR and 5 defensive starters currently questionable.  The Texans have gotten some key weapons back healthy on offense recently in Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz, plus Nico Collins returned to practice this week.  They average 24.7 points per game, 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play at home this season.  The Browns have all of their top skill players fully healthy for this one, and they are forming chemistry with Flacco.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Atlanta Falcons -1

I love the spot for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They will be 'all in' to get this win and stay alive in the tight NFC South race.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Falcons, who are 4-10 ATS this season and one of the worst covering teams in the NFL.  But they easily could be a lot better as they have six losses by one score this season, including five by 5 points or fewer.

Arthur Smith said QB Taylor Heineke will start the rest of the way as he is tired of watching Desmond Ridder and this offense struggle in the red zone with dumb turnovers.  He had another key turnover as the Falcons were trying to put the game away late in a 9-7 loss to the Panthers last week.  Now we 'buy low' on the Falcons off that defeat.

The Falcons have been much more potent offensively at home.  They score 23.3 points per game, averaging 388 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play at home.  The Falcons have rushed for 122 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall.  I like this matchup for their offense up against a Colts defense that has allowed 111 or more rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Colts, who are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been fortunate in close games winning three of their last four by one score.  Their luck runs out this week, and their defense will get exposed.  The Falcons have the better defense allowing 19.9 points per game, 311.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  The Colts allow 24.5 points per game, 347.5 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

A big reason money is pouring in on the Falcons this week is due to the great news they got Thursday on their injury report.  LT Jake Matthews, C Drew Dalman, G Chris Lindstrom and T Kaleb McGary all returned to practice Thursday and they should have all five starters healthy for this one, which hasn't been the case the last few weeks.  Defensively, DE Calais Campbell and NT David Onyemata both returned to practice Thursday as well.  The Falcons could be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season, which is what they need for this stretch run.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +9.5

Golden State is without its two best defenders in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II.  The Warriors can't be this big of a favorite over anyone right now given their current state.  In fact, Golden State has just one win by more than 11 points all season!  They have just one win by more than 6 points in their last 20 games, making for a 19-1 system backing the Blazers pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.

That 11-point win came against the Wizards last night who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Now it's the Warriors who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and on tired legs since they are short-handed.  The Warriors could also be caught looking ahead to their game against defending champion Denver on Christmas Day and not take the Blazers seriously tonight.

The Blazers are playing much more competitive basketball here of late with their last three games all decided by 5 points or less.  They upset the Suns, lost by 1 to the Wizards and lost by 4 to the Warriors.  That makes this a revenge spot for the Blazers as well as they just lost to the Warriors on December 17th.  They will be the more motivated team.

A big reason the Blazers are playing a lot better of late is that they have finally gotten healthier with Brogdon, Simons, Henderson, Grant and Ayton all missing some time this year.  But all five are healthy now.  The Warriors are just 3-10-1 ATS at home this season and have been consistently overvalued at home.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us given the tough rest spot is asking too much.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Bulls -5

The Chicago Bulls are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and playing their best basketball of the season since Zach LaVine got hurt.  They are playing team basketball, playing smarter on offense with more 3's and layups, and I expect them to keep this momentum going tonight against the short-handed Cleveland Cavaliers.

Cleveland is without its top three scorers in Mitchell (27.7 PPG, 5.5 APG), Garland (20.7 PPG, 5.9 APG) and Mobley (16.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) right now.  Sam Merrill has been playing well at PG in their absence but even he is questionable tonight as well.  The Cavaliers stand no chance of being competitive on the road against the Bulls without Mitchell, Garland and Mobley.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* Lakers/Thunder NBA ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been grossly undervalued for three seasons now and remain undervalued this season.  They are 18-8 SU & 18-7-1 ATS this season.  The Thunder rank 3rd in the NBA in net rating this season trailing only the 76ers and Celtics.

The Los Angeles Lakers won the in-season tournament and have just tanked since as they haven't bene as motivated.  The Lakers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming against the Spurs by 3.  They also lost to the Spurs by 14, lost to the Knicks at home by 5, lost by 16 at Chicago and lost by 7 at Minnesota.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Lakers as James, Davis and Hachimura are all questionable for this one.  The Thunder blasted the Lakers 133-110 as 5.5-point home favorites in their lone meeting with them this season on November 30th.  It will be more of the same tonight, this time as even shorter 3.5-point favorites.

The Thunder are the much fresher team playing their 2nd game in 5 days and just their 6th game in 15 days.  The Lakers will be playing in their 7th different city in 12 days.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.

15* Bills/Chargers AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 43.5

The Los Angeles Chargers absolutely quit defensively last week.  They gave up 63 points to the lowly Raiders, who had been shut out the previous week.  I don't trust this defense to show up at all against the Bills on Saturday, and I expect the Bills to hang a big number on the Chargers to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Bills have scored at least 31 points in three of their last four games overall and I expect them to get 31-plus in this one.  I like what I saw from the Chargers offensively late in that loss to the Raiders.  They were down 63-7 and kept trying to score, putting up two touchdowns in the final eight minutes.  They will keep coming on offense as Easton Stick is trying to prove he belongs.

The Bills have a very banged up defense.  They are without CB White and LB MIlano, plus a ton of players have the questionable tag this week in DE Epenesa, DT Phillips, DE Floyd, CB Elam and FS Hyde.  They would be a legit Super Bowl contender if they could just get some of these guys healthy, but that won't be the case this week.  The Chargers have five defenders on IR and four more questionable for this one.

The Chargers and Bills have combined for 44, 51 and 78 points in their last three meetings.  This total is just too short tonight for a game involving these two banged-up defenses and two capable offenses in perfect scoring conditions in Los Angeles.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies ML -115

JA Morant showed no signs of rust in leading the Grizzlies to a big comeback win in a 115-113 victory at New Orleans as 8-point dogs in his return from suspension.  Morant had 34 points including the game-winner at the buzzer in a dramatic return.  He means everything to this team's success, and I think the Grizzlies are a 'bet on' team in the immediate future because of it.

Morant had 20 points and 8 assists in his second game back while Bane had 31 and Jackson Jr. had 21 as Morant just makes everything easier on his teammates.  We're getting an undervalued Grizzlies team due to a poor 8-19 start this season.  But now they have no margin for error the rest of the way and have to really go on a run if they want to make the playoffs.  I expect Morant and company to continue making a run from here on out.

Now the Grizzlies get to face a tired Atlanta Hawks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  Young and Bey both played nearly 40 minutes last night while Murray played 34 in a 113-122 loss in Miami.  The Hawks are short-handed right now without Jalen Johnson and AJ Griffin, plus De'Andre Hunter is questionable.

Atlanta is 7-21 ATS in all games this season, including a dreadful 1-10 ATS at home.  The Hawks are 0-8 ATS in home games with a total of 230 or higher this season.  Atlanta is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive road games this season.  Bet the Grizzlies on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Utah/Northwestern Las Vegas Bowl No-Brainer on Northwestern +7

Teams that won 3 or fewer games the prior season and qualified for a bowl the next season are 34-12-2 ATS over the past eight bowl seasons.  Teams that improved by 6-plus wins (or by 50%-plus) from the prior regular season are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 bowl games as underdogs after going 4-1 ATS last season.  These systems basically show that these teams are happy to be here and give their best effort, and that will be the case for Northwestern.

The Northwestern Wildcats were one of the best stories in all of college football this season.  Interim head coach David Braun had to take over for Pat Fitzgerald just before the season.  After a slow start to the season, the Wildcats went 4-1 SU in their final five games with their only loss coming 10-7 to Big Ten West champion Iowa.  The Wildcats upset Wisconsin as 12-point road dogs, upset Maryland as 14.5-point home dogs and upset Illinois as 6.5-point road dogs.  They went 7-0 ATS in their final seven games.  The Wildcats clearly want to be here.

The Utah Utes had Pac-12 title expectations coming into the year.  But they never got their starting QB back from injury, and their offense struggled all season to keep up with what was a very good Utah defense.  The Utes limped to the finish line, going 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their final three games.  They lost by 24 at Arizona and then only beat Colorado by 6 as 21-point home favorites despite the Buffaloes playing without star QB Shedeur Sanders.  Utah does not want to be here after playing in the Rose Bowl the last two seasons.

The Utes had several players hit the transfer portal, plus they lost two important defensive starters earlier this season to injury in LB Lander Barton and EDGE Logan Fano.  Leading WR Devaughn Vele (43 receptions, 593 yards, 3 TD) opted out as well.  Meanwhile, Northwestern only had one starter hit the transfer portal in LG Josh Priebe.  They will have all hands on deck for this one, further proof that they want to be here and finish the season the on a 4-game winning streak with yet another upset victory.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Georgia State/Utah State Potato Bowl No-Brainer on Utah State ML +110

Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular season game to qualify for a bowl are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 tries.  This trend goes to show that teams that win their final regular season game to get bowl eligible are clearly motivated to be there and thus go out and perform well.  It think that will be the case for Utah State here.

In fact, Utah State went 3-1 SU in its final four games with its only loss coming to Boise State, which was the Mountain West champion.  The Aggies boast some impressive numbers for a team that is just 6-6 on the season.  They average 446.3 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play while allowing 417.6 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 29 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play on the season.

Georgia State also finished 6-6 but clearly cannot be too happy to be here.  The Panthers opened 6-1 this season and looked to be a real contender to win the Sun Belt.  Instead, they have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS since.  They lost by 17 to Georgia Southern, by 28 to James Madison, by 28 to Appalachian State and by 42 to LSU.  They weren't even competitive down the stretch, and head coach Shawn Elliott may have lost this team.  The Panthers are getting outgained by 58 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play on the season.

Several of Georgia State's best players hit the transfer portal.  That includes leading rusher Marcus Carroll (1,350 yards, 13 TD) and leading receiver Robert Lewis (70 receptions, 877 yards, 7 TD).  Carroll is headed to Missouri while Lewis is headed to Auburn, so clearly those two programs thought both of these players were good enough to play in the SEC.  Starting RT Montavious Cunningham is headed to Virginia Tech and starting CB Bryquice Brown is headed to Boston College.  You could argue that Georgia State will be without its four best players now.

Utah State doesn't have any important players in the transfer portal other than S Devin Dye.  They should have basically all hands on deck here.  I also like the angle that QB Levi Williams will be playing in his final collegiate game before joining the military.  Williams actually played in this same bowl game last year leading Wyoming to a 52-38 win over Kent State.  He rushed for 200 yards and 4 TD while also throwing for another score in the win.  

Williams was named MWC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance against New Mexico in the regular season finale.  Hew went 16-of-27 passing for 198 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 169 yards and three scores to show off his dual-threat ability.  There is really no drop off from their other two QB's to Williams as the Aggies have arguably the best depth of any team in the country at QB.

This will also be basically a home game for the Aggies being played in Boise, Idaho, a stadium they are very familiar with getting to play Boise State every year.  It's only a 4 hour drive for their fans and they will have a big home-field advantage as a result.  Bet Utah State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UT-Arlington +8

North Texas lost its star PG to Kansas State in the transfer portal.  The Mean Green only brought back one starter this season and were gutted.  They have a reputation of being one of the best mid-major teams in the country from previous seasons, but that is no longer the case this season.  They continue to get too much respect for that reputation.

The Mean Green are just 5-5 SU this season with their five wins coming against Mississippi Valley State, Angelo State, Towson State, Nebraska-Omaha and Northern Iowa in OT.  When they have stepped up in class they have lost to Fordham, Mississippi State, Boise State, LSU and St. John's.

I like what I've seen from this UT-Arlington team on the road this season.  They only lost 80-82 as 14.5-point dogs at New Mexico, 69-76 as 11-point dogs at Grand Canyon and 66-77 as 13.5-point dogs at Texas Tech.  They took all three of those very good teams to the wire, and North Texas isn't nearly as good as those three squads.

Arlington is 71-49 ATS in its last 120 games as a road underdog.  The Mavericks are 7-2 ATS in all games this season, including 4-1 ATS in road games.  Bet UT-Arlington Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Toledo +5

West Virginia is rebuilding this season after moving on from Bob Huggins to Josh Eilert. They have five new starters this season and it has not gone well.  The Mountaineers are 4-7 SU & 4-7 ATS this season and they have no business being 5-point favorites against Toledo today.

West Virginia's four wins this season came by 8 over Missouri State, by 13 over Jacksonville State, by 4 over Bellarmine and by 6 over Drexel.  There are some very concerning losses as well.  They lost by 8 to UMass as a 3-point favorite on a neutral and were upset by Radford as a 6.5-point home favorite.  They were also blasted by Pitt by 17 at home and were upset as 14.5-point home favorites by Monmouth.

Toledo is one of the better mid-major teams in the country.  They took three other mid-major powers to the wire in losses to New Mexico by 8, UC-Irvine by 6 and Indiana State by 2.  They upset Oakland and upset Wright State in their two true road games this season.  I fully expect them to upset West Virginia today.

Toledo is 49-29 ATS in its last 78 games overall.  The Rockets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games after giving up 9 or fewer offensive rebounds in two consecutive games.  West Virginia is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games after losing two of its last three games.  Kowalczyk is 16-4 ATS after a game where they made 33% of their shots or worse as the coach of Toledo.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

15* Arkansas State/Northern Illinois Camellia Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State PK

Fading the MAC is something you will see over and over again from my picks this bowl season.  The MAC was way down this year, even more than normal, and they historically struggle in bowl season.  The Sun Belt is notoriously undervalued, and that looks to be the case again this season as 12 of the 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game.  They play a much tougher schedule than these MAC teams and are more battle-tested as a result.

Arkansas State went 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games this season despite not being more than a 1-point favorite in any of the five games.  They crushed Texas State 77-31 to get bowl eligible.  They also took South Alabama to the wire in a 7-point road loss as a 15-point underdog.  Butch Jones now has the Red Wolves going to a bowl game for the first time since 2019 in his third season on the job.  This is a program on the rise.

The Red Wolves have all starters expected to play in this game other than LB Javante Mackey.  It's safe to say they are happy to be here and looking forward to this opportunity.  I expect fans to make the trip from Jonesboro to Montgomery, AL for this Camellia Bowl and support this team.

Northern Illinois went 3-2 SU but 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The three wins weren't impressive at all as all three came against three of the worst teams in all of college football in Eastern Michigan (130th), Western Michigan (127th) and Kent State (188th).  Those rankings are from Jeff Sagarin and combine FBS and FCS teams.  While Northern Illinois faced the 128th-ranked schedule in the country, Arkansas State faced the 113th.

Arkansas State QB Jaylen Raynor is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He averaged 9.0 yards per attempt this season with a 15-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 324 yards and five scores on the ground.  I like this Arkansas State offense over Northern Illinois, which likely only has one proven healthy receiver for this game.  It's a lackluster NIU offense that averages just 25.3 points per game despite facing such a soft schedule.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Mississippi State/Rutgers UNDER 133

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 246th in adjusted tempo, 361st in average defensive possession length, 14th in adjusted defense and 185th in adjusted offense.  The UNDER is 8-2 in all Rutgers games this season with 133 or fewer combined points in seven of their 10 games this season and 134 in another.

Mississippi State ranks 174th in adjusted tempo and 253rd in average possession length on offense.  The Bulldogs are also 13th in adjusted defense, so these are two Top 15 defensive teams in the country.  This is a sleepy early start time at 12:00 EST which will also favor defense, poor shooting and a slower tempo.

Rutgers are 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games as an underdog.  Mississippi State is 24-12 UNDER in its last 36 games as a favorite.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +12.5

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with three against playoff contenders.  They upset the Pacers by 14 as 8.5-point home dogs, took the Suns to the wire in a 4-point road loss at 13-point dogs, covered in a 12-point loss at Sacramento as 14-point dogs and upset the Blazers as 4.5-point road dogs.  They are also a solid 11-6 ATS on the road this season, while the Warriors are 3-9 ATS at home.

This number has been adjusted up too much for the fact that the Wizards will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But they had two days off prior to the Portland game, so they should still be pretty fresh.  And they are nearly at full strength right now and one of the deepest teams in the NBA playing nine different players significant minutes last night.

I think the spot is actually worse for the Warriors, who are coming off an upset win over the Celtics in OT on Thursday, which now sets them up for a letdown spot.  Golden State is without its two best defenders in Draymond Green and Gary Payton II, plus Brandin Podziemski is questionable after leaving the Boston game with a back injury.  The Warriors can't be double-digit favorites over anyone right now given their current state.

In fact, Golden State has just one win by more than 11 points all season!  Their largest margin of victory in their last 19 games has been 6 points! They haven't won any of their last 23 games by more than 11 points, making for a 23-0 system backing the Wizards pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Golden State has beaten Washington by more than 9 points just once in their last nine meetings.  Jordan Poole wants some revenge here on the team that let him go as well.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -8.5

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory following three consecutive losses to the Bucks, Cavaliers and Hawks.  They took all three to the wire in single-digit losses but came up just short.

Now the Rockets will take out their frustration on the short-handed Dallas Mavericks.  The Mavericks were already struggling even when Luka Doncic was healthy because they were missing so many other key guys.  Now they are without Doncic too, and the future is grim for the Mavericks until some of these guys get back healthy.

Indeed, the Mavericks are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall losing by 18 at home to Minnesota, by 26 at Denver and by 9 at home to the Clippers.  The Mavericks will be without Doncic (32.7 PPG, 9.1 APG, 8.4 RPG), Irving (23.0 PPG, 5.2 APG), Lively II (8.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG), Exum (8.6 PPG) and Green (6.9 PPG) tonight.  They don't stand a chance of even being competitive against the motivated Rockets, who won't be taking them lightly given they have lost three straight.

The Rockets are 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 11.2 points per game.  Houston is 11-1 ATS after playing a home game this season.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/76ers UNDER 230.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting between the 76ers and Raptors already this season.  The first two meetings saw 221 and 213 combined points, and it will be another defensive struggle tonight.

In fact, the 76ers and Raptors have combined for 229 or fewer points in 11 consecutive meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 230.5-point total.  Most of these meetings haven't even sniffed this total with 213 or fewer combined points in seven of those 11 meetings.

The Raptors are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 21st in pace, 21st in offensive rating and 15th in defensive rating.  The 76ers rank 2nd in defensive rating which has been the key to their success this season.  The 76ers may not have PG De'Anthony Melton, who left their last game with a thigh injury and is questionable, which would also help us cash this UNDER ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on SMU -5.5

Steve Prohm is one of the worst head coaches in the country.  He was fired from Iowa State, and he returned to Murray State where he previously had success.  It was a disaster last season in his first season back, and it hasn't gone any better this season, proving that he's one of the worst in the business.

Murray State is just 3-8 SU & 3-7 ATS this season.  The Racers just lost outright two games ago at home to SE Louisiana as a double-digit favorite.  Then they were blown out by 14 as 1.5-point favorites at Arkansas-Little Rock to suffer their 8th loss in 9 games.

Murray State has compiled this awful record against the 278th-ranked schedule in the country.  Now they must face one of the best teams they have all season in SMU.  And the biggest difference between these teams is defense, where Murray State ranks 316th in adjusted defense while SMU ranks 34th and actually gets after it on that end.  Prohm just doesn't coach defense.

SMU won its last road game 68-57 at Florida State as a 5.5-point dog.  This will be a pretty big step down in class for the Mustangs, who have already faced the likes of FSU, ASU, Dayton, Wisconsin and Texas A&M.  Murray State won't have its normal home-court advantage with students home for Christmas.  I expect the Mustangs to treat this is a business trip.  The Mustangs are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 December games, while the Racers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 December games.  Bet SMU Friday.

20* Drake/UAB CBB No-Brainer on Drake -3

The Drake Bulldogs are one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  They should have beaten Miami in the NCAA Tournament but blew a double-digit lead late.  Miami went on to the Final Four.  Drake brought back almost everyone from that team and is off to an 11-1 start this season.

UAB has been one of the best mid-major programs in the country for the last handful of years.  However, that's clearly no longer the case when you look at the results for the Blazers thus far.  But they are still getting respect for what they have done in the past, so there is value in fading them still.

UAB is 6-5 SU & 4-6 ATS this season with some very troubling results.  They only beat Alcorn State by 3 as 16.5-point favorites.  That gives them a common opponent with Drake, which just beat Alcorn State 92-55 as 18-point favorites.  That result tells you all you need to know.

But UAB has also lost at home to McNeese State by 21 as 5.5-point favorites, was upset at home by Southern Miss as 9.5-point favorites, and got crushed at Arkansas State by 19 as 4.5-point favorites.  UAB is now 1-9 ATS in its last 10 December games.  The Blazers won't have much of a home-court advantage at all with this being an afternoon game at 3:00 EST and students home for Christmas.  I expect the Bulldogs to treat this as a business trip.  Bet Drake Friday.

20* Saints/Rams NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44.5

The Los Angeles Rams are healthy on offense with Stafford, Nacua, Kupp and Williams and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Rams have scored 28 or more points in four consecutive games and are averaging 33 points per game in those four games and hung 31 on the Ravens and 36 on the Browns, two of the best defenses in the NFL.

The Saints' defense isn't nearly as good as it gets credit for.  The Saints have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses and quarterbacks this season.  They still gave up 27 points to the Colts, 27 to the Vikings and 24 to the Falcons.  The only legit offense they faced in recent weeks was the Lions, and they gave up 33 points in a 33-28 loss that saw 61 combined points.  They are without CB Marshon Lattimore and S Marcus Maye, and their secondary will get exposed by the Rams.

But the Saints are getting healthier on offense now and showing what they are capable of.  They have scored 24 or more points six of their last eight games overall.  Now they are expected to get back their top receiver in Chris Olave for this one after he sat out against the Giants with an ankle injury.  I think they can keep pace with the Rams and will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because they aren't going to be able to stop Stafford and company.

The last four Rams' games have seen 48, 68, 55 and 51 combined points.  The Rams and Saints have combined for at least 46 points in five of their last six meetings.  This 44.5-point total is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Syracuse/South Florida Boca Raton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on South Florida +3

Teams that won 3 or fewer games the prior season and qualified for a bowl the next season are 34-12-2 ATS over the past eight bowl seasons.  Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular season game to qualify for a bowl are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 tries.  These systems basically show that these teams are happy to be here and give their best effort, and that will be the case for South Florida.

South Florida finished 6-6 after beating Charlotte 48-14 in their regular season finale.  The Bulls will be going to their first bowl game since 2018, so they are clearly happy to be here.  They didn't have any significant opt-opts and will have basically all hands on deck for this one.

Syracuse limped to the finish going 2-6 in its final six games with the two wins coming against non-bowl teams in Wake Forest and Pittsburgh.  Head coach Dino Babers was fired, and the Orange had a few players hit the transfer portla.  I think they have very questionable motivation heading into this one as a result and are a vulnerable favorite.

Syracuse is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game.  The Bulls put up 30.8 points per game and 455.3 yards per game this season and will have a big advantage on offnese in this matchup.  They rush for 185 yards per game and throw for 271 yards per game.  Syracuse is actually getting outgained by 22.6 yards per game on the season.  Bet South Florida Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Grizzlies OVER 246

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 21-6 in all Pacers games this season including 254 or more combined points in five of their last six games overall.  Books just can't set these Indiana totals high enough.

That's the case again tonight with this 246-point total against a Memphis Grizzlies team that has been an under team to this point, but they quickly flip to an over team with the return of JA Morant from suspension.  He has 34 points in their upset win of the New Orleans Pelicans in his return to action on Tuesday.  He makes everything easier on his teammates with his ability to break down a defense.

Indiana is 10-1 OVER in all road games this season and we're seeing an average of 259.1 combined points per game in all Indiana road games.  The Pacers are 18-4 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 23 or more assists per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Bulls OVER 228.5

The Chicago Bulls have undergone a philosophical change of late that has led to them playing their best basketball of the season mainly because of their improvements on offense.  The Bulls have scored at least 106 points in 10 consecutive games and 120 or more six times during this stretch.  They are still a poor defensive team ranking 20th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 11-2 in Bulls last 13 games overall.  Now they take on a Spurs team that is 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 241, 244, 256 and 251 combined points scored.  The Spurs rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating, making them a great OVER team.  

They also played the Bulls to an OVER on December 8th in a game that saw 233 combined points.  In fact, the Bulls and Spurs have now combined for 229 combined points or more in each of their last five meetings, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 228.5-point total.  It will be more of the same tonight with 230-plus combined points.

The Spurs are 10-1 OVER after playing a road game this season.  The Bulls are 27-13 OVER in their last 40 non-conference games.  San Antonio is 7-0 OVER in non-conference games this season.  The Spurs are 10-1 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Bradley -10.5

I love the spot for Bradley tonight.  They opened the season 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS but have since gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games with a step up in competition.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight to end this skid, and I think they get a double-digit blowout victory as they are taking a big step down in class tonight.

SIU-Edwardsville is 7-5 this season but ranked 268th in KenPom.  They have really struggled on the road, going 0-5 SU in true road games losing by 16 at Dayton, by 18 at Missouri, by 12 at South Alabama, by 23 at Troy and by 12 at Ball State.  So they have lost all five road games by 12 points or more, and Bradley (122nd) is ranked higher than South Alabama (183rd), Troy (210th) and Ball State (241st) in KenPom.

Bradley is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 home games with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Braves are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games following an ATS win.  Edwardsville is 13-27 ATS in its last 40 December road games.  Bradley is 11-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  Bet Bradley Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Kings OVER 233.5

The Sacramento Kings rank 8th in pace, 12th in offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating.  The pace and offensive rating would be higher if not for several missed games from De'Aaron Fox.  But they are a dead nuts OVER team when Fox is healthy, and they are fully healthy as a team right now.

The Kings just combined for 274 points with the Wizards last time out and 249 with the Nets and 251 with the Thunder in three of their last four home games.  This total is just too low tonight for a Sacramento home game.

That's especially the case when you consider they will be taking on one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA in the Boston Celtics.  The Celtics rank 6th in offensive rating.  They combined with 242 points with the Warriors at the end of regulation last night and they didn't even have offensive weapon Kristaps Porzingis, who likely sat out that game knowing he would play in this game on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

Sacramento is 14-3 OVER in its last 17 home games following two consecutive wins.  The OVER is 37-20 in Kings last 57 home games.  Sacramento is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 home games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento ML -115

The Boston Celtics are in one of the worst spots I've seen all season.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after going to OT with the Warriors last night.  All five starters played at least 35 minutes last night, including 40-plus from Tatum, Brown and White.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight.

The Celtics haven't been playing very well on the road as it is.  They are actually 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  Their two wins came by 3 as 9-point favorites at Toronto and by 2 as 11-point favorites at Memphis.  They lost outright as 8.5-point favorites at Charlotte, lost outright by 17 as 5.5-point favorites at Orlando, lost outright by 10 as 4.5-point favorites at Indiana and lost outright by 6 as 5-point favorites at Golden State last night.

The Kings are rolling at home right now going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home games winning by 13 over the Nets, by 5 over the Thunder, by 21 over the Jazz and by 12 over the Wizards.  They also recently beat the defending champion Nuggets at home.  They are 10-3 SU at home this season.  Bet the Kings on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on UC-Irvine +8.5

UC-Irvine is one of the most underrated mid-major teams in the country.  The Anteaters are 7-4 SU & 8-2 ATS this season with all four losses coming by 10 points or less, including three by 8 points or fewer.  They are once again catching too many points tonight at New Mexico.

UC-Irvine only lost by 1 at San Diego State as 8.5-point dogs two games ago and SDSU is every bit as good as New Mexico.  They only lost by 4 at Duquesne as 5.5-point dogs, upset USC 70-60 as 11.5-point road dogs and crushed New Mexico State 91-74 as 9-point home favorites.

Speaking of New Mexico State, that is a common opponent of these two.  New Mexico only beat New Mexico State 73-72 as 14.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 13.5 points.  The Lobos are coming off that win over their in-state rivals and won't be as motivated to beat UC-Irvine tonight.  Bet UC-Irvine Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers -3

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing how dangerous they can be when fully healthy.  They are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and I fully expect them to extend that winning streak to nine games tonight in Dallas.

The Mavericks are not healthy.  They are without Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, Josh Green and Maxi Kleber right now.  That puts a lot on Luka Doncic's shoulders to carry the scoring load, and while he's playing at an MVP level, he cannot beat this loaded Clippers team on his own.

It did not go well for Doncic and the short-handed Mavericks in two games against two other elite teams here recently.  They lost 119-101 at home to the Timberwolves three games ago and 130-104 to the Nuggets last time out.  I fully expect them to get blasted again tonight against another title contender in the Clippers.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets -3

The Houston Rockets have the biggest home/road splits of any team in the NBA.  They are 2-10 SU & 5-7 ATS on the road, but an impressive 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS at home.  The Rockets are coming off consecutive road losses to the Bucks and Cavs by single-digits, so they return home motivated for a victory tonight.

They take on an Atlanta Hawks team that is one of the most overrated teams in the NBA.  The Hawks are 11-15 SU & 6-20 ATS this season.  That includes 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games overall, and they are once again getting too much respect here as only 3-point road dogs to the Rockets, who are the much superior and more complete team.

The Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating while the Hawks rank 27th, and that is the biggest difference between these teams.  One plays defense and the other does not.  Plus, injuries are mounting up for the Hawks as Jalen Johnson remains out while both Bogdan Bogdanovic and AJ Griffin are questionable.  The Rockets look to be fully healthy right now.

Atlanta is 1-11 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  Houston is 9-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Bulls OVER 224.5

The Chicago Bulls have undergone a philosophical change of late that has led to them playing their best basketball of the season mainly because of their improvements on offense.  The Bulls have scored at least 106 points in nine consecutive games and 120 or more five times during this stretch.  They are still a poor defensive team ranking 22nd in defensive rating.

The Los Angeles Lakers are also playing very poor defensively since winning the in-season tournament.  They are 3-1 OVER in their four games since with 252, 241, 244 and 223 combined points.  They have allowed 127, 119, 129 and 114 points in those four games.  But the Lakers have scored at least 115 pints in five of their last six games, including 122 or more four times.

The Lakers are 40-22 OVER in their last 62 road games.  The Bulls are 26-13 OVER in their last 39 non-conference games.  The Lakers and Bulls have combined for at least 224 points in four consecutive meetings and 224 or more in seven of their last eight meetings with the OVER going 7-1 in those eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Utah Valley +5.5

Utah Valley is 6-5 SU & 6-3 ATS this season.  The Wolverines are 4-0 SU & 2-0 ATS at home.  They upset Seattle 78-72 as 3-point home dogs and upset Weber State 70-54 as 2-point home dogs.  They are coming off consecutive covers as road underdogs at Oregon State and at Utah as well.

The Wolverines now host a Liberty team that I believe is grossly overvalued due to a home-heavy schedule in the early going.  In fact, the Flames have played just one true road game this season, and that resulted in a 83-58 blowout loss at Florida Atlantic.  They should not be favored by 5.5 points on the road today.

I've seen Liberty play a few times this season and what stands out to me is just how short they are as a team.  The Flames rank dead last (362nd) in the country in average height.  Utah Valley ranks 119th and will have a big advantage on the boards in this one.

Utah Valley is 31-12 ATS in its last 43 games overall, including 9-1 ATS in its last 10 December games.  The Wolverines are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games after covering three of their last four games.  Utah Valley is 24-5 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolverines have been grossly undervalued for multiple seasons now.  Bet Utah Valley Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pacers OVER 248.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 20-6 in all Pacers games this season including 254 or more combined points in four of their last five games overall.

Now they take on a Charlotte Hornets team that doesn't mind getting up and down.  It's also a Hornets team that ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive rating, so these are two of the three worst defensive teams in the NBA to this point.

Indiana is 11-1 OVER following a loss this season.  The Pacers are 8-1 OVER vs. poor defensive teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jazz/Cavaliers OVER 227

The Cleveland Cavaliers are more of an OVER team than most realize because they brought in a couple shooters and are attempting more 3-pointers and playing faster this season.  That has been on display here of late as they combined with 244 points with the Rockets at the end of regulation, 246 points with the Hawks, 223 with the Celtics in the rematch and 233 with the Celtics in the first meeting in their last four games coming in.

The Utah Jazz are an OVER team as long as their best player in Lauri Markkanen is on the floor, and he has been healthy here of late.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for 233, 229, 236, 230 and 254 points in their last five games coming in.  As you can see, this total of 227 is too low based on what both these teams have done of late.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.