20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF PK

UCF has been a wagon at home this season.  The Knights are 10-2 SU at home with their only losses coming to Kansas and Houston.  And they nearly upset Houston in a 69-68 loss as 13-point underdogs to show what they are capable of.

In their last home game, the Knights crushed TCU 85-58.  They followed it up with a 91-87 road loss to Kansas as 12.5-point dogs and likely would have won that game if not for some questionable calls by the refs.  Now they will take out their frustration on BYU tonight.

This is a terrible spot for BYU.  The Cougars are coming off a huge 93-89 (OT) home win over Baylor for their 3rd straight win and cover in Big 12 play.  I think they are overvalued now, and this trip to the East Coast is a long one.  I don't expect them to handle it very well.

BYU is 1-3 SU in Big 12 road games this season with the lone win at Colorado, which is one of the worst teams in the Big 12.  They also lost at Utah, at TCU and at Houston by 31.  This will be their 2nd-toughest road game of the season to this point.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Louisville -8

The Louisville Cardinals are a wagon right now.  They have won 10 consecutive games with eight of those 10 wins coming by double-digits.  That includes road wins over Florida State by 14, Virginia by 20, Syracuse by 24 and SMU by 25.

The Cardinals are actually 8-1 ATS in all road/neutral games this season playing their best basketball of the season on the highway.  Well, Georgia Tech isn't exactly an intimidating road atmosphere.

The Yellow Jackets have been competitive against the bottom teams in the ACC but they have been blown out when stepping up in class.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming at home against lowly VA Tech.  They lost by 13 at Florida State, by 11 at home to Clemson, by 22 at SMU and by 7 at Syracuse.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* SEC Total DOMINATOR on Vanderbilt/Oklahoma UNDER 154.5

The UNDER is 7-2 in Vanderbilt's last nine games overall with 156 or fewer combined points in eight of those nine games, and 152 or fewer in seven of them.  Oklahoma and its opponents have combined for 150 or fewer points in five consecutive games, and 144 or fewer in four of those.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Auburn/Ole Miss ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +6.5

The Auburn Tigers are the #1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  We have seen that play out with Auburn going just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall with one of the covers coming by a 0.5-point.

Auburn escaped with 2-point wins at Georgia and at home against Tennessee before beating lowly LSU by 13 as 12.5-point favorites.  I think this is where their luck runs out against an Ole Miss team that has been one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and gets the most out of his teams.  He is doing that in Oxford as the Rebels are 16-5 SU & 12-8 ATS this season.  Three of their five losses have come by 3 points or fewer, so they are a tough team to get margin on.

Ole Miss is 9-1 SU at home this season with the lone loss coming 63-62 to Texas A&M after blowing a 4-point lead in the final seconds.  This will be the best home atmosphere for a game in Oxford all season with the No. 1 ranked team in the country coming to town.  I fully expect the Rebels to win this game outright.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Kansas State/Iowa State UNDER 145.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the Big 12 square off Saturday and this total has been set too high.  Iowa State ranks 6th in the country in adjusted defense while allowing just 66.9 points per game and 41.1% shooting.

Kansas State ranks 90th in adjusted defense while allowing 70.4 points per game on 43.9% shooting.  The Wildcats also prefer to play slow and are one of the worst offensive teams in the Big 12.

The UNDER is 7-3 in Kansas State's last 10 games overall with 145 or fewer combined points in eight of their last nine games overall.  The UNDER would be 4-1 in Iowa State's last five games overall if not for OT against Arizona.  The Cyclones and their opponents have combined for 142 or fewer points at the end of regulation in four of their last five games.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 145 or fewer combined points in all four meetings, and 133 or fewer in three of the four.  Iowa State is without its best shooter in Milan Moncilovic (10.3 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers), which has really hurt their spacing on offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Summit League Total DOMINATOR on South Dakota State/North Dakota OVER 158.5

North Dakota is 11-0 OVER in its last 11 games overall with 180 or more combined points five times.  The Fighting Hawks rank 88th in adjusted tempo, 159th in adjusted offense and 348th in adjusted defense.  They play fast and are one of the worst defensive teams in the country.

North Dakota is 16-4 OVER in all games this season.  The Fighting Hawks and their opponents have combined for at least 162 points in nine of their last 10 games.

South Dakota State also likes to play fast ranking 96th in adjusted tempo.  The Jackrabbits are a very good offensive team ranking 113th in adjusted offense and 47th in effective FG percentage.

We saw this matchup once already this season with South Dakota State winning 109-73 at home over North Dakota for 182 combined points.  North Dakota only shot 34.4% in that game so there is room for improvement for them to make up for the fact that South Dakota State isn't likely to score 109 again.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +15.5

The Kansas State Wildcats have quietly gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and are one of the most underrated teams in the Big 12 right now.  They lost by 4 as 7-point dogs to Texas Tech, by 10 as 14.5-point dogs at Kansas and by 8 as 11-point dogs at Baylor.  They also blasted WVU by 13 and Oklahoma State by 28 at home.

This is a very tough spot for Iowa State.  The Cyclones return home from a two-game road trip out West against the Arizona schools.  After a big comeback to beat Arizona State, they lost in OT at Arizona.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice as the Wildcats made a 60-footer at the buzzer just to force OT.

Iowa State is without its best shooter in Milan Moncilovic (10.3 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers), which has really hurt their spacing on offense.  The Cyclones are much easier to defend without having to worry about their outside shooting.  Kansas State will pack it in and rely on its defense, which has been superb of late in holding three of their last five opponents to 61 points or fewer.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Villanova -1

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Villanova and 'sell high' on Creighton Saturday.  The Wildcats are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, while the Bluejays are 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Yet Villanova is favored here, and favored for good reason.

The Wildcats want revenge from a 86-79 road loss as 5-point dogs at Creighton in their first meeting this season on December 21st.  Creighton shot 55% from the field and 14-of-25 (56%) from 3 and still only won by 7.  I have to think they'll have some shooting regression in the rematch on the road this time around.

Villanova is 10-2 SU at home this season.  Creighton is 3-3 SU in true road games with a 24-point loss at Georgetown and two of the road wins coming against lowly DePaul and Butler, two of the worst teams in the Big East.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Providence +14

This is one of my favorite spots in college basketball.  It's betting on revenge-minded road underdogs who lost a close game to their opponent at home in their first meeting of the season.

That's the case with this game today.  Providence lost 72-70 as 5.5-point home dogs to St. John's on December 20th.  Now the Friars are catching 14 points in the rematch on the road, which is a 8.5-point adjustment from that first meeting.  That's way too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.

This has been a closely-contested series.  In fact, each of the last six meetings between the Friars and Red Storm have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  Better yet, Providence hasn't lost by more than 14 to St. John's in any of their last 26 meetings.  That makes for a 26-0 system backing the Friars pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Bet Providence Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Pelicans OVER 231.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Pelicans are 13-6 OVER in their last 19 games overall with 232 or more combined points in 12 of those 19 games.  They have basically had to go a lot of small ball without a center, and now Daniel Theis is out tonight as well.  They are playing a lot faster during this stretch and they also rank 28th in defensive rating this season.

The Boston Celtics are 3rd in offensive rating and shoot a ton of 3-pointers this season.  They do play pretty good defense, but they haven't been nearly as lock down on that end as they were last season as they are going through a championship hangover.

This will be a rematch from a 120-119 win by the Celtics on January 12th earlier this month that saw 239 combined points.  It's not like either team shot the lights out in that game either with the Celtics shooting 44% as a team and the Pelicans 47%.  This rematch should sail OVER this 231.5-point total as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +11

Amazingly, the Boston Celtics are 0-16-1 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win.  They haven't covered in consecutive games since the first two games of the season!  They are clearly going through a championship hangover this season.

I don't see the Celtics being all that motivated to beat the Pelicans tonight, either.  They just beat them 120-119 as 14.5-point home favorites on January 12th earlier this month in their first meeting this season.

It will be the Pelicans who will be the more motivated team with revenge in mind.  The Pelicans are just 12-36 this season, but they have to be the most talented team in the history of the NBA with a 25% winning percentage or worse at this point in the season.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time right now, and I expect them to give the Celtics a run for their money tonight.

The Pelicans haven't lost any of their last 10 meetings with the Celtics by more than 12 points as all of these games tend to go down to the wire.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* Nuggets/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 231.5

The Philadelphia 76ers have had to go more small ball without their top two big men in Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond.  The result of small ball has been going 4-2 OVER in their last six games overall with 232 or more combined points in three of their last six.  They have scored at least 109 points in all six games.  They rank 10th in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating during this stretch.

The Denver Nuggets are fully healthy right now and a dead nuts OVER team when that's the case.  The OVER is 7-2 in Nuggets last nine games overall with 234 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  They have allowed at least 122 points in four consecutive games.  They rank 6th in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating in their last nine games.

The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings.  Denver beat Philadelphia 144-109 on January 21st for 253 combined points earlier this month.  I think this rematch sails OVER 231.5 combined points in the rematch tonight as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Toronto Raptors -2.5

The Toronto Raptors have quietly gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and are clearly playing their best basketball of the season.  A big reason for their success is the fact that they have remained healthy.  They have six outright wins as underdogs during this stretch.

Now the Raptors are 2.5-point home favorites over the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are favored for good reason.  The Bulls are watching their season slip away going 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Each of their last four losses came by double-digits, including at home to the short-handed 76ers and on the road to the Blazers.  The Bulls are without Zach LaVine due to personal reasons right now which is a big reason for their struggles.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers -13.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are pretty much fully healthy right now and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  Kawhi Leonard is showing he still has a lot to give after scoring 27 points against the Spurs last time out for his 6th consecutive game scoring 15-plus points since returning from injury.

The Clippers are 29-17-1 ATS this season as one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  And they did the majority of that without Kawhi.  Now that he's back in the lineup, the Clippers are legitimately one of the best teams in the NBA.  They are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with a 2-point loss at Phoenix and a OT loss to the Celtics despite not having all their top guys for that game.

But this is as much of a fade of the Charlotte Hornets as anything.  The Hornets just cannot catch a break in the injury department.  They are now without six of their top seven scorers in Ball (28.2 PPG), Miller (21.0 PPG, Williams (15.5 PPG, 9.4 RPG), Mann (14.1 PPG), Williams (10.4 PPG) and Martin (7.8 PPG).

We saw just how poor the Hornets were in their first game without all these guys last time out losing 104-83 as 1.5-point home favorites to the short-handed, terrible Brooklyn Nets.  It won't go any better for them tonight against the Clippers, who have won 10 consecutive meetings with the Nets.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Grizzlies OVER 236

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  The OVER is 9-3-1 in Grizzlies last 13 games overall with 234 or more combined points in 10 of those 13 games.  That includes 238 or more combined points in seven of their last nine coming in.

The OVER is 8-3-1 in Rockets last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between the Grizzlies and Rockets with 234 or more combined points in all four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Rockets/Grizzlies TNT ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -4

The Memphis Grizzlies will be max motivated tonight.  They will be paying with triple revenge after losing the first three meetings of the season to the Houston Rockets.  They lost the last two meetings by a combined 6 points.

The Grizzlies will also be motivated coming off one of their worst losses of the season in a 143-106 road loss to the Knicks.  They have had the last two days off to rest up and get healthy, and now they will be more healthy than they have been in any of their first three meetings with the Rockets this season.

Memphis is 19-5 at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the NBA.  Expect one of their biggest efforts of the season tonight against a Rockets team playing their 4th consecutive road game and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  Bet the Grizzlies Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Jazz OVER 224

The Utah Jazz have battled injuries all season.  But tonight they are expected to have each of their top eight scorers healthy and on the court.  All eight average at least 10 points per game.

The Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when they are healthy because they play fast, they rank 29th in defensive rating, and they are a pretty dangerous offensive team.  They will do enough to get us the OVER tonight.

The OVER is 12-6 in Timberwolves last 18 games overall with 226 or more combined points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois/Nebraska OVER 152.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in adjusted tempo and 24th in adjusted offense while scoring 85.8 points per game this season.  The Fighting Illini are even more of an OVER team without C Tomislav Ivisic (13.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.2 BPG) as they have had to go more small ball in his absence and are much worst off defensively.

The OVER is 8-2 in Illinois' last 10 games overall with 154 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 152.5-point total, which is very low for a game involving Illinois right now.  They went for 157 combined with Northwestern, 161 with Maryland, 158 with Michigan State and 163 with Indiana in their last four games coming in.

Nebraska is 4-2 OVER in its last six games overall.  The Huskers have really slipped defensively allowing 78 or more points in five of their last six games overall and 83 or more four times.  It's not going to get any easier for them defensively tonight against Illinois.

Both meetings last season flew over the total with 185 and 171 combined points.  Nebraska and Illinois have combined for at least 152 points in four of their last six meetings as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota State/North Dakota State OVER 154.5

North Dakota State is a dead nuts OVER team going 14-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Bison are scoring 82.0 points per game behind an offense that ranks 33rd in efficiency, 2nd in effective FG percentage and 1st in 3-point percentage in the entire country.

But the Bison are poor on the other end ranking 267th in adjusted defense.  The OVER is 7-2 in North Dakota State's last nine games overall with 154 or more combined points in seven of those nine games, and 160 or more in six of them.  So this total of 154.5 is very low for a game involving the Bison.

South Dakota State ranks 85th in adjusted tempo and 117th in adjusted offense.  The Jackrabbits rank 52nd in effective FG percentage and like the Bison, are much better on offense than they are on defense.  South Dakota State and its opponents have combined for at least 154 points in seven of their last nine games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Thunder/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 227

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 8-1-1 OVER in their last 10 games with 226 or more combined points in eight of those 10 games.  The Thunder have scored at least 115 points in nine of their 10 games during this stretch.

Steph Curry sat the front end of a back-to-back last night in a 114-103 win over the Utah Jazz.  The Warriors were confident they could beat the Jazz without him, and I'm anticipating he plays tonight.  If he does this total will only go up, but I still wouldn't hate it even if he doesn't play.  The Warriors are without Draymond Green, who is their most important defender.

The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Warriors and Thunder with 237 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  The only game that went under the total Curry did not play in.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Belmont/Illinois State OVER 153

The Belmont Bruins are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bruins are 14-6 OVER in all games this season.  Belmont games are averaging over 160 combined points per game in all games.  The Bruins rank 30th in adjusted tempo, 60th in adjusted offense and 256th in adjusted defense.

The OVER is 4-1 in Illinois State's last five games overall.  The Redbirds rank 86th in adjusted offense and 232nd in adjusted defense.  So both teams are leaps and bounds better on offense than defense.

Both the Bruins and Redbirds rank in the Top 42 in effective FG percentage on offense and 297th or worse in effective FG percentage on defense.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Belmont and its opponents have combined for 162 or more points in six of its last seven games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois-Chicago +8.5

Illinois-Chicago wants revenge from a 61-60 home loss to the Bradley Braves on January 11th less than three weeks ago.  The Flames led that game the entire way and led by 5 in the final seconds before giving up consecutive 3-pointers and losing at the buzzer.  They have not forgotten, and I fully expect them to give Bradley a run for its money tonight.

The Flames are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  They are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have been at their best on the road this season going a perfect 8-0 ATS in true road games not once losing by double-digits.  That's basically what it's going to take tonight for the Braves to cover.

This is a letdown spot for the Braves.  They won't be that motivated to beat the Flames a 2nd time.  They are fat and happy following five consecutive victories and 10 wins in their last 11 games overall.  But they have been very fortunate in close games during this stretch with six of those 10 wins coming by single-digits.  Bet Illinois-Chicago Wednesday.

15* Nuggets/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 239

The Denver Nuggets are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have gone for 236 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They are fully healthy right now and playing a lot more small ball which has them taking off offensively, but also being one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  The Nuggets rank 3rd in offensive rating and 25th in defensive rating in their last seven games.

The Knicks are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall with 243 or more combined points in six of those nine games.  They have scored 143 points in consecutive wins over Memphis and Sacramento.  The Knicks rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating this season.

Both teams are fully healthy right now and I expect them both to top 120 points in this one.  The Knicks beat the Nuggets 145-118 for 263 combined points in their first meeting this season in Denver.  It will be more of the same in the rematch in New York tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Kings/76ers OVER 225

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team going 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 223 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.  The Kings are fully healthy right now and rank 4th in pace in their last 12 games.  They have scored 120 or more points in five of their last six games coming in.

The Philadelphia 76ers have had to go more small ball without their top two big men in Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond.  The result of small ball has been going 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 232 or more combined points in three of their last five.  Paul George may return tonight after sitting out the front end of a back-to-back in a win over the Lakers last night.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are overvalued after a blistering start to the season that has them sitting in 1st place in the East.  They have gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.

The Cavaliers shouldn't be 8.5-point road favorites over the Miami Heat tonight considering they will be without three key role players in Wade, LeVert and Okoro.  It has since been announced that Darius Garland (21.7 PPG, 6.8 APG) will rest on the front end of a back-to-back here.  This line should have crashed more than it has since that announcement.

The Heat are getting no respect right now because of the Jimmy Butler drama.  But players are over it, and the Heat have won and covered their last two games coming in.  They are playing with a chip on their shoulder right now.  The Heat are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Cavs, so this has been a good matchup for them.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Toronto Raptors -6.5

The Toronto Raptors have quietly gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are clearly playing their best basketball of the season.  A big reason for their success is the fact that they have remained healthy.

The Washington Wizards are the worst team in the NBA at 6-39 SU & 17-27-1 ATS this season.  This is a terrible spot for the Wizards returning home from a 6-game road trip out West.  They lost all six games by 8 points or more and have now lost 14 straight overall with all 14 coming by 6 points or more, and 13 by 7 points or more.

Now the Wizards will be playing in their 7th different city in 12 days and I question how much they have left in the tank. They will also be dealing with distractions from returning home as they were last at home on January 16th.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Missouri State/Indiana State OVER 145.5

The Indiana State Sycamores are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 14-5 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 4th in adjusted tempo and 279th in adjusted defense.  This total of 145.5 is very low for a game involving the Sycamores.

That's especially the case when you consider this was a shootout in the first meeting with Missouri State this season.  Indiana State won 80-77 on the road for 157 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch with the Sycamores controlling the tempo playing at home tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU +12.5

The Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers accordingly that are very difficult to live up to.  It puts a massive target on their backs as well.

I think this is a clear letdown spot for Auburn after surviving a pair of close 2-point wins at Georgi and at home against Tennessee in their last two games coming in.  They will need to play a perfect game to cover this big of a number on the road at LSU tonight.

The LSU Tigers have been very competitive in SEC play despite their poor record.  They only have one loss by more than 12 points in conference play this season.  This despite playing a brutal schedule with four of their last five games on the road.

In their lone home game during this stretch, they beat Arkansas who had their best player in Fland for that game.  The Tigers only lost by 7 at Alabama over the weekend to show what they are capable of.  They will treat this like their 'National Championship' game, and I fully expect them to give Auburn a run for its money tonight.  

The home teams is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet LSU Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +8.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Houston Cougars.  They erased 6-point deficits in regulation and in OT to beat Kansas in double-OT over the weekend.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat West Virginia, who they already beat by 16 at home in their first meeting this season.

The Mountaineers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, especially in big games like this.  They already upset Iowa State 64-57 at home as 6.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 8.5 points to Houston, which is too much given the brutal spot for the Cougars.  Keep in mind they nearly lost outright as 13.5-point favorites at UCF in their previous road game before Kansas.  Bet West Virginia Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Virginia +1.5

The Miami Hurricanes are 1-16 SU in their last 17 games overall with upset home losses to Charleston Southern and Mount St. Mary's.  Their lone win during this stretch came against Presbyterian.  The Hurricanes have no business being favored over the Virginia Cavaliers tonight.

Miami nearly ended its losing streak over the weekend against a short-handed California team.  Matthew Cleveland caught fire in the 2H to lead the comeback and force OT on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  But in the end the Hurricanes came up short, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  They now head back home from a two-game road trip to California.  I think this team would rather be on the road than be dealing with all of the distractions back home about how poor of a season it has been.

After a brutal stretch of games, the Cavaliers now have a winnable game that I fully expect them to take advantage of.  They beat Boston College by 18 in their lone win over their last seven games.  They will relish this opportunity to get back in the win column.  Bet Virginia Wednesday.

20* Oregon State/Gonzaga ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 153

Gonzaga is a dead nuts OVER team going 14-7 OVER in all games this season.  The Bulldogs rank 38th in adjusted tempo and 17th in average length of offensive possession.  They rank 5th in adjusted offense, so they play fast and do so efficiently.

The problem for the Bulldogs is they play no defense this season.  They allowed 97 points to Oregon State and 103 to Santa Clara in two of their last three games.  Now they face this same Oregon State team that they lost 97-79 to in OT on January 16th.  It's worth noting that game was tied 83-83 at the end of regulation for 166 combined points.

Oregon State is also a very good offensive team ranking 45th in adjusted offense, 21st in effective FG percentage and 26th in 3-point shooting.  The Beavers have now scored at least 81 points in six of their last seven games overall.  I think they can get close to 80 and Gonzaga close to 90 tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +14.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 15-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico.  They then covered as 13-point dogs at Nevada before topping Wyoming 67-58 at home as 3-point favorites.

I love the spot for San Jose State because they will be the more rested team.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, while San Diego State will be playing its 3rd game in 7 days coming off consecutive road wins at Air Force (by 1) and at Nevada.

It's hard to trust San Diego State to get margin on teams because they are so poor offensively ranking just 112th in adjusted offense.  They also play slow and limit possessions, and San Jose State plays even slower, so this game won't see many possessions. In two meetings last season, San Jose State lost by 3 as 10-point home dogs and by 8 as 21.5-point road dogs to the Aztecs.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Warriors OVER 228.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 13th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They are reasonably healthy right now which is the key to them being an OVER team.  But they are without Walker Kessle (11.3 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 2.4 BPG), who is their most important defender.

The OVER is 5-2 in Jazz last seven games overall with 228 or more combined points in six consecutive games coming in.  Golden State is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall with 226 or more combined points in five of those six contests.

The Warriors are without their most important defender in Draymond Green right now.  Jonathan Kuminga is also a great, lengthy, athletic defender that they are missing right now.  They are going more small ball with Brandon Podziemski back and healthy.  Small ball favors OVERS.

Utah and Golden State have combined for at least 228 points in four of their last five meetings and six of their last eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on BYU -3.5

The BYU Cougars are 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 26.3 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and that was on display in their 80-52 win as 7-point home favorties over Cincinnati last time out.  They also beat Oklahoma State by 16 and Arizona State by 20 at home in Big 12 play this season.

This is a terrible spot for the Baylor Bears.  They will be playing their 2nd road game in 4 days both in altitude after a win at Utah on Saturday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Cougars tonight.  Baylor already has blowout losses at Iowa State by 20 and at Arizona by 11 in Big 12 play this season.  This one won't go much better for them tonight.

The Bears have been playing basically a six-man rotation due to injuries.  They are without Langston Love (6.5 PPG) and could be without Jeremy Roach (11.9 PPG) again tonight.  Playing in altitude will only add to their fatigue, and I expect BYU to run them out of the building tonight.  Bet BYU Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Notre Dame -8

Notre Dame wants revenge from a 86-75 road loss at Georgia Tech on December 31st in their first meeting this season.  The difference is Notre Dame did not have its best player in Markus Burton (19.9 PPG) healthy for that game.

Since Burton returned, the Fighting Irish have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They took NC State, Duke and Syracuse to the wire on the road, lost by 1 to UNC at home and crushed Boston College by 18 at home and Virginia by 15 on the road.

Georgia Tech is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season losing by 13 at Florida State, by 7 at Syracuse, by 22 at SMU and by 15 at Oklahoma.  Injuries are a problem for the Yellow Jackets right now as they are without G Reeves (9.3 PPG) and could be without G Mustaf (9.1 PPG), who is questionable.  Bet Notre Dame in revenge mode Tuesday.

20* Lakers/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia +4

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Lakers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a narrow 112-107 win at Charlotte last night.  It's worth noting the Hornets lost their best player in La'Melo Ball early in that game and the Lakers still struggled to put away the short-handed Hornets.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Lakers, who have won four straight coming in including wins over the rival Celtics and Warriors.  They weren't that motivated to beat the Hornets last night, and they won't be that motivated tonight either.  This will be the 9th game in 16 days for the Lakers and I question how much they have left in the tank.

The 76ers are missing some guys, but it hasn't stopped them from pulling off consecutive impressive upset wins over the Cavs as 9-point home dogs and the Bulls the very next night as 3.5-point road dogs.  Now the 76ers have had the last two days off so they will be fresh and ready to go, plus they will be motivated to beat the Lakers on National TV tonight.  Bet the 76ers Tuesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John's/Georgetown UNDER 141.5

St. John's beat Georgetown 63-58 at home on January 14th for just 121 combined points.  It will be another ugly defensive battle in the rematch here two weeks later.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and points will be hard to come by in this one.

Georgetown is a dead nuts UNDER team this season going 14-6 UNDER in all games.  The Hoyas are one of the most improved defensive teams in the country ranking 33rd in adjusted defense but just 159th in adjusted offense.  The Hoyas are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games overall with 141 or fewer combined points in nine of their last 10 games.

St. John's is an elite defensive team ranking 5th in defensive efficiency this season.  The Red Storm make teams work for everything they get ranking 334th in average length of defensive possession.  Their high-pressure style really slows games down to a crawl.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Iowa State/Arizona ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Iowa State +2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones suffered their letdown against West Virginia after beating Kansas by 17 at home.  They are going to be pretty 'spot proof' moving forward because they already tasted that defeat and clearly didn't like the taste of it.

The Cyclones have responded with a 108-83 home win over UCF and a 76-61 road win at Arizona State in their two games since that loss to WVU.  Now they get to stay out West for a short trip from Tempe to Tucson which is a big factor as to why I'm on the Cyclones tonight.

Arizona is pretty easy to figure out.  The Wildcats can't beat the best teams in the country, but they thrive against middling to bad teams.  The Wildcats already have six losses this season, including losses by 15 to Wisconsin, by 14 to Duke and by 16 to Texas Tech.  They are 1-5 against KenPom Top 43 teams with their lone win coming against overrated Baylor at home.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Iowa State Monday.

20* Clippers/Suns NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 224

Both the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns are as healthy as they have been all season.  The only players they are both missing are known more for defense than offense.  That's Kris Dunn (6.0 PPG, 42.3% FG's) for the Clippers and Ryan Dunn (7.3 PPG, 45.2% FG's) for the Suns.

The Clippers just hung 127 points on the Bucks in a 127-117 victory for 244 combined points.  The Suns have hung 117 or more points in five of their last seven games overall and 114 or more in eight of seven of their last nine.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 229 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Grizzlies/Knicks OVER 240.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  The OVER is 8-3-1 in Grizzlies last 12 games overall with 234 or more combined points in nine of those 12 games.  That includes 238 or more combined points in six of their last eight coming in.

The New York Knicks rank 2nd in offensive rating which has turned them into an OVER team this season.  They just combined for 263 points in a 143-120 home win over the Sacramento Kings last time out, a Kings team that profiles similarly to Memphis.

The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Grizzlies and Knicks.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +6

The Los Angeles Lakers are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  After upsetting the rival Boston Celtics at home on Thursday, the Lakers backed it up with a 118-108 win at Golden State on Saturday.  Those are arguably their two biggest rivals.

Now the Lakers have to travel clear out east to take on the Charlotte Hornets.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Hornets as they were to beat those two previous teams.  They are 'fat and happy' right now and ripe for the picking.

The Hornets have quietly gone 5-5 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are playing their best basketball of the season.  La'Melo Ball and Mark Williams are healthy and playing tremendous to lead the way.  THey are coming off a 31-point home win over the Pelicans as 1.5-point dogs.

The Lakers are 16-6 at home but just 9-12 on the road this season.  The Hornets have played much better at home than on the road this season.  They have outright upset home victories in three of their last four including wins over Phoenix and Dallas in the West.  Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Hornets OVER 222

The Charlotte Hornets rank in the Top 10 in pace in their last 10 games.  The key has been having PG La'Melo Ball healthy.  He pushed the tempo for them and makes everything go for them offensively.  The Hornets have scored at least 110 points in seven of their last eight games overall, including 120 or more in three of their last five.

The Lakers just hung 118 on Golden State and 117 on Boston in consecutive victories.  Those are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  Now the Lakers get a step down in class here against the Hornets.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Lakers and Hornets with 231 or more combined points in all six games.  We have a lot of room to spare here with this low total of 222 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bills/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on Buffalo +2

Note: If you receive this play by Monday, I recommend a 6-point teaser on the Bills +8 or better paired with Ohio State -2.5 or better.  If you receive this play after Monday, my 2nd-favorite option is a 6-point teaser with the Bills +8 or better paired with the Commanders +11.5 or better.

I was on the Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 against the Houston Texans last week.  I didn't think the Texans would be able to do enough offensively missing two of their top three weapons in Dell and Diggs to be able to keep up with the Chiefs.  I was fortunate to cash that Chiefs -7.5 ticket.

The Chiefs won 23-14 despite giving up 336 total yards to the Texans and managing just 212 themselves, getting outgained by 124 yards.  They benefited from two missed field goals by the Texans as well.  As I said, I was very fortunate to cash that ticket.

I think Kansas City's luck runs out this week.  They have been winning close games all season.  But the one game they didn't win where their starters played the entire way was November 17th at Buffalo.  The Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21.  They held the Chiefs to just 259 total yards and outgained them by 107 yards with 366 of their own.

The Bills are actually 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Chiefs with the two losses coming in OT on the road and by 3 at home.  They clearly have the recipe to beat the Chiefs, and now it's up to them to go out and execute it in the playoffs to get the massive monkey off their back.  I think they are ready to dethrone the champs and will be the extra motivated team to do so.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Kansas City with the lone loss being in OT with the Chiefs winning the coin toss.

A couple advantages for the Bills that really stick out are red zone offense and Josh Allen's ability to beat the blitz.  The Bills rank 2nd in red zone TD percentage at 69%, so they cash in on their opportunities.  The Chiefs can't run the ball in the red zone which is why they are just 24th in red zone TD percentage at 53%.  

The Chiefs are the 4th-most blitz-heavy defense in the NFL, and Allen ranks 2nd among QB's in EPA against the blitz with a 16-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  The Bills held Travis Kelce to 2 catches for 8 yards in that first meeting this season.  They know taking him out of the game is key KC's offensive success and they'll focus in on that again.  

Josh Allen had a MVP season and he's ready for his MVP moment in the playoffs by outdueling Mahomes.  He has led the Bills to 30 or more points in 10 of his last 12 games and the two he didn't he had 27 against the Ravens and 24 against the Patriots.  This is the best Buffalo offense since Allen was drafted.  This is one of the worst Kansas City offenses of the Mahomes era.  The Chiefs haven't scored more than 30 points in any game all season!

No NFL team has ever won three straight Super Bowls.  Every team going for a three-peat that has gotten to the conference championship game has lost.  This is where the run ends for the Chiefs. Most fans are tired of the Chiefs getting all the calls.  Well, Clete Blakeman is the head ref.  The Chiefs are only 6-5 with Blakeman as the head ref and have a losing record with him since 2018.  Home teams are just 5-11 SU the last 16 games Blakeman has reffed, so he doesn't mind pissing off the home fans.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Thunder/Blazers OVER 225.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have had to go more small ball here of late with injuries to their big men.  They are also going to be without their best perimeter defender in Lu Dort today against the Portland Trail Blazers.

The OVER is 8-1 in Thunder last nine games overall with 227 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  They have gone for 251 and 248 combined points in their last two trips to Portland.

The Blazers are fully healthy at the guard positions with Simons running the show.  They are playing well with four straight victories.  But they have played seven of their last eight games against teams that profile as under teams due to poor offense and good defense, plus slow tempo.  

The Blazers will open things up today against the Thunder because they are going to have to with the Thunder guaranteed to get their points.  This game should sail OVER this 225.5-point total. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Commanders/Eagles NFC Championship No-Brainer on Washington +5.5

Note: I also recommend a 6-point teaser on the Commanders +11.5 or better paired with the Bills +8 or better.

The Washington Commanders are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games overall with all four losses coming by 8 points or less.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect?

Everyone keeps making a big deal about Jayden Daniels being a rookie quarterback.  But he may be the best rookie QB we've ever seen.  Daniels has taken just one sack on 28 pressures and hasn't committed a single turnover in two playoff games with only one turnover-worthy play.

I would argue the Commanders have the better quarterback in this matchup and it's not close.  That's especially the case after Jalen Hurts came up limp with a knee injury against the Rams last week.  He wasn't effective at all throwing or running after suffering the knee injury, and there's no chance he's going to be fully recovered this week even though he is expecting to play.

The Eagles came into the playoffs with all 22 starters healthy from Week 1.  But that's not the case any more.  They lost their leading tackler in LB Nakobe Dean (128 tackles regular season) against Green Bay.  He has had 22 tackles in two games against Washington and is a big loss.  CB Quinyon Mitchell suffered a shoulder injury that knocked him out last week, and C Cam Jurgens (Back) and TE Dallas Goedert (ankle) have yet to practice this week as of Thursday and are questionable.

The Rams had two costly fumbles that basically gave the Eagles the game last week.  The Rams moved the ball up and down the field on the Eagles with 402 total yards.  The Commanders beat the Eagles 36-33 in their final regular season meeting, overcoming five turnovers which is almost nearly impossible.  Daniels threw 5 touchdowns on this Eagles defense, which was their worst performance of the season.

I know the Commanders can move the football and score on Philadelphia again.  I also think they can shut down Hurts and the passing game as AJ Brown just isn't fully healthy and has been a non-factor the last two weeks.  The key will be limiting Saquon Barkley, who has had two big games against Washington this season.  I think Dan Quinn will make the proper adjustments and stack the box and make the hobbled Hurts try and beat them through the air.  I don't think he can do it, especially since his mobility is now severely limited and the Commanders won't have to worry about him taking off and running.

The Commanders are full of confidence right now going 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.  They feel like they are unbeatable at this point, going into this game with a ton of confidence.  They beat two loaded offensive teams in the Bucs and Lions on the road, and now they won't be phased by going back to Philadelphia, a place they are very familiar.  The Eagles were fortunate to get by the Packers and Rams, and now they meet their match here in Washington.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Commanders/Eagles OVER 46.5

47 and 48 are key numbers on NFL totals.  Once this number dropped to 46.5 at Draftkings I pulled the trigger on the OVER.  I'm confident the Commanders are going to hang 24-plus, and there's a good chance the Eagles get 24-plus as well.

The Commanders have scored at least 23 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are fully healthy on offense aside from one offensive linemen, and they just hung 45 points and 481 total yards on the Lions last week.  Austin Ekeler being back healthy gives them another added dimension with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

The Eagles are going to have to throw the ball more today because the Commanders are going to do everything they can to stop the run.  That could create some bigger plays in the passing game than the Eagles have had to in these two playoff games.  The Eagles have scored at least 22 points in each of the last 13 games in which their starters played.

The game script has forced the Eagles to be very conservative on offense thus far.  They jumped out to leads against both the Packers and Rams.  The Packers were also hampered by injuries to three of their top receivers.  The Rams had plenty of success against them going for 402 total yards last week.  The Commanders will have similar success.

The Eagles are without LB Dean and CB Mitchell is banged up with a shoulder injury that forced him out of the Rams game last week.  Washington lost DT Payne who is their best run stuffer.  The Commanders put up 36 points on this Eagles defense in their final meeting.  That was a 36-33 shootout for 69 combined points.  We only need 47-plus in the rematch to cash this OVER. The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 40's and single-digit winds in Philadelphia today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State/Texas Tech OVER 147

Texas Tech is an elite offensive team.  The Red Raiders rank 7th in adjusted offense, 12th in effective FG percentage and 13th in 3-point percentage.  The OVER is 11-6 in all Texas Tech games this season.  They are scoring 82.9 points per game on 49.4% shooting.

Oklahoma State has had a shift in philosophy this season under first-year head coach Steve Lutz.  They are playing a lot faster ranking 49th in adjusted tempo.  They are a poor defensive team allowing 47.5% shooting to opponents.  The Red Raiders are going to hang a big number today leading the way in us cashing this OVER 147 ticket.

Oklahoma State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall combining for 154 points with BYU, 156 with Colorado and 170 with Arizona.  Texas Tech is 5-3 OVER in its last eight games with 152 or more combined points in five of those eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Wizards/Suns OVER 231

The Phoenix Suns are fully healthy right now which has been rare for them.  They are an elite offensive team when that's the case, and I fully expect them to hang a big number on the Washington Wizards tonight to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Wizards are an OVER team as long as Kuzma and Poole are healthy, and that's the case for them right now.  The Wizards rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.  They have allowed at least 120 points in six of their last eight games overall.

The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings and 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  The Suns beat the Wizards 130-123 for 253 combined points in their first meeting this season on January 16th just over a week ago.  It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on California -9

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next seven games without him to fall to 4-15 SU & 3-16 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-15 SU in its last 16 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  Each of their last five losses have come by double-digits, including a 35-point loss at Duke, a 43-point home loss to SMU and a 37-point road loss at Stanford in their last three games coming in.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play going 0-8 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall.

California is coming off two of its most impressive games of the season winning 65-62 at NC State as 6-point dogs and 77-68 at home over Florida State as 3-point dogs.  The Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They will relish this opportunity to put it on Miami tonight at home.  Bet California Saturday.

15* SEC Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma/Arkansas UNDER 149.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks have opened 1-5 in SEC play.  Making matters worse, they lost G Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG) to a season-ending injury in a loss at Missouri two games ago.  So now they have to try and adjust without their PG and second-leading scorer moving forward.

The Razorbacks are going to have to rely on defense even more now because they are going to be even more lost offensively without Fland.  Arkansas ranks 38th in adjusted defense and 89th in adjusted offense.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Razorbacks last six games overall with 139 or fewer combined points in four of those games.  They shot 31% in their first game without Fland.

Oklahoma has slipped a little defensively this season, but this total of 149.5 is simply too high tonight.  In their last road game, they lost 72-62 at Georgia for just 134 combined points while shooting 38.1% as a team.  This will be just their 3rd true road game of the season.  Arkansas is 3-0 UNDER in SEC home games this season with 139 or fewer combined points in all three.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Grizzlies OVER 241.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The OVER is 8-2-1 in Grizzlies last 11 games overall with 234 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.  That includes 238 or more combined points in six of their last seven coming in.

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team as long as Markannen and Sexton are in the lineup.  They are both expected to play tonight.  The Jazz are 13th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games overall with 237 or more combined points in each of their last three games.  The Grizzlies and Jazz combined for 250 points in their lone meeting earlier this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on Gonzaga/Portland OVER 160

Gonzaga is a dead nuts OVER team going 13-7 OVER in all games this season.  The Bulldogs rank 39th in adjusted tempo and 17th in average length of offensive possession.  They rank 6th in adjusted offense, so they play fast and do so efficiently.

The problem for the Bulldogs is they play no defense this season.  They allowed 97 points to Oregon State and 103 to Santa Clara in their last two games.  They did beat Portland 81-50 in their first meeting this season, but both teams are due some positive shooting regression after Gonzaga shot 42.6% and Portland 33.3% in that meeting.

Portland also likes to play fast ranking 126th in adjusted tempo.  The Pilots are one of the worst defensive teams in the country ranking 330th in adjusted defense.  The Pilots are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall including 162 or more combined points in each of their last three games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Portland +25

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall and I would argue they are the most overrated team in the country.  They are elite on offense but this is the worst defensive team of the Mark Few era.

That was on display in their last two games allowing 58.5% shooting to Oregon State in a 97-89 (OT) loss and allowing 53.7% shooting to Santa Clara in a 103-99 home loss in regulation.

Portland shot 33.3% in its 81-50 road loss to Gonzaga in their first meeting this season.  I have to think the Pilots are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch, and thus should be able to stay within this 25-point spread.  Bet Portland Saturday.

20* UConn/Xavier FOX No-Brainer on Xavier -1.5

The Xavier Musketeers have been rolling since getting their best player in Zach Freemantle (16.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG) back from injury.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their las four games overall including an upset road win at Marquette.

Xavier is pissed off after blowing a 16-point 2H lead to lose 79-71 (OT) at St. John's last time out.  That was a brutal beat as I had Xavier +8 in that game and the line closed +7 so most lost.  It was also a misleading final, and taking St. John's to OT on the road is impressive either way.

Now the Musketeers have their sights set on revenge from a 94-89 (OT) road loss at UConn on December 18th.  Freemantle didn't even play in that game and they took the Huskies to OT on the road.  UConn had Liam McNeeley (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) healthy for that game and he scored 14 points.  McNeeley has missed their last five games and likely will miss this one as well.  Bet Xavier Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Knicks OVER 232.5

The Sacramento Kings are getting back to their roots under interim head coach Doug Christie.  They are playing faster and their offense has thrived since upping the tempo.  The OVER is 8-2 in Kings last 10 games overall with 240 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They have scored at least 123 points in eight of those 10 games.

The New York Knicks profile as an OVER team this season thanks to ranking 2nd in offensive rating.  They are fully healthy right now with Josh Hart questionable the only concern.  But as long as Towns is healthy and on the court, the Knicks are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.

The Knicks will be looking to run more with the last three days off, so they are fresh and ready to go.  The Kings are always looking to run ranking 1st in pace in their last 10 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State -2.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico.  And last time out they covered as 13-point dogs at Nevada.

I love the spot for San Jose State because they have had the last week off and get another reprieve here with a very winnable game against one of the worst teams in the Mountain West in Wyoming.  The Cowboys are in a letdown spot off an upset loss at UNLV which put to end a three-game losing streak by 8 at home to New Mexico, by 41 at Boise State and by 16 at home to Colorado State.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Dakota/South Dakota State OVER 169

I've been riding these Summit League OVERS especially with South Dakota, my favorite OVER team in the league.  The OVER is 16-1 in all South Dakota games this season and most are sailing over the total.

South Dakota ranks 2nd in adjusted tempo, 98th in adjusted offense and 357th in adjusted defense.  So they play super fast and play no defense, which is what you want in an OVER team.  The Coyotes and their opponents have combined for at least 174 points in 10 of their last 13 games.

South Dakota State also likes to play fast ranking 80th in adjusted tempo.  The Jackrabbits do so efficiently ranking 122nd in adjusted offense and 57th in effective FG percentage.  They combined for 182 points with North Dakota, a team that profiles similar to South Dakota.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Long Beach/Cal Poly OVER 154

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 3rd in adjusted tempo and 1st in average length of offensive possession at 14.2 seconds.  They are also a terrible defensive team ranking 298th in adjusted defense.

Cal Poly is 13-6 OVER in all games this season.  They take on a Long Beach State team that has really been trending over of late.  The Beach have gone 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They rank 336th in adjusted defense, so these are two of the worst defensive teams in the country.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Summit League Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota/North Dakota State OVER 160.5

North Dakota is 10-0 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 180 or more combined points five times.  The Fighting Hawks rank 97th in adjusted tempo, 159th in adjusted offense and 352nd in adjusted defense.  They play fast and are one of the worst defensive teams in the country.

North Dakota State has huge splits on offense and defense.  The Bison are 33rd in adjusted offense, 2nd in effective FG percentage and 1st in 3-point percentage connecting on 41.3%.  But they are just 267th in adjusted defense, so despite playing slower they really profile as an OVER team.

North Dakota State is 13-5 OVER in all games this season while North Dakota is 15-4 OVER in all games.  The Bison are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games with 160 or more combined points in five of those eight games.  North Dakota and its opponents have combined for at least 162 points in eight of its last nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Duke/Wake Forest ESPN No-Brainer on Wake Forest +11.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Duke Blue Devils.  They have gone 12-0 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have benefited from an extremely soft schedule to open ACC play and I think they finally get a run for their money today.

Wake Forest is 15-4 this season including a perfect 10-0 at home this season where they upset North Carolina last time out.  They also crushed Stanford by 13, NC State by 18 and James Madison by 17 in their previous three home games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Duke winning both home meetings outright during this stretch.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU/UFC OVER 148.5

UCF is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Knights rank 33rd in adjusted tempo, 53rd in adjusted offense and 99th in adjusted defense.  They are 12-4 OVER in their last 16 games overall with 149 or more combined points in 12 of those 16 games.  This total of 148.5 is very low for a game involving UCF.

TCU profiles as an under team, but UCF will control the tempo playing at home.  And the Horned Frogs will relish this big step down in defensive class after facing a gauntlet of great Big 12 defensive teams.  They have faced Kansas, Baylor, Utah, BYU, Houston and K-State in their last six games.  In their last game against a team that profiles similar to UCF, they lost 90-81 at Arizona for 171 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Colorado/Arizona OVER 150

Arizona is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 63rd in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted offense.  The OVER is 3-1 in Arizona's last four games overall combining for 168 points with UCF, 151 with Baylor and 170 with Oklahoma State.  This total of 150 is very low for a game involving Arizona right now.

The Wildcats will control the tempo tonight playing at home.  But Colorado is playing faster this season at 155th in adjusted tempo.  The Buffaloes have sneakily gone 5-1-1 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have gone for 148 or more combined points in four of their last five games despite facing a plethora of Big 12 teams that profile as under teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MVC Total DOMINATOR on Illinois State/Bradley OVER 139.5

Bradley is playing faster this season and the Braves are one of the best shooting teams in the country.  They are scoring 81.2 points per game on 49% shooting while ranking 7th in effective FG percentage and 2nd in 3-point percentage at 41.2% as a team.

Bradley put up 89 points on Belmont and 118 on Indiana State in two of its last three games.  I expect the Braves to hang a big number on Illinois State, which ranks 263rd in adjusted defense.  But the Redbirds have been sneaky good on the other end ranking 79th in adjusted offense, 11th in effective FG percentage and 9th in 3-point percentage at 39.1%.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Arizona State +10

The Iowa State Cyclones have struggled on the road in Big 12 play.  They scored at the buzzer to force OT at Texas Tech in a 85-84 win.  They lost outright as 6.5-point favorites at West Virginia.  And they only beat Colorado by 10, which is a Colorado team that is currently on a 7-game losing streak starting with that defeat.

West Virginia is a recent common opponent of Arizona State.  The Sun Devils went on the road and upset West Virginia outright as 9-point road dogs.  They don't get blown out at home as their largest home loss came by 6 points.  Each of their last four Big 12 games have been decided by 8 points or fewer.

Arizona State is fully healthy with G Jason Sanon (12.8 PPG) upgraded to probable today.  Iowa State just lost its best shooter in Milan Momcilovic (10.3 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) and will be without him until nearly tournament time.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa/Indiana State OVER 155

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team going 13-3 OVER in its last 16 games overall.  The Sycamores rank 5th in adjusted tempo and 283rd in adjusted defense.  They have gone for at least 157 combined points with their opponents in 14 of their last 16 lined games, so this total of 155 is pretty short for a game involving the Sycamores.

Northern Iowa has always been known for defense and slow tempo.  But that's not the case anymore this season.  The Panthers are actually great on offense ranking 83rd in adjusted offense and terrible on defense ranking 202nd in adjusted defense.

Northern Iowa combined for 169 points with Illinois State and 153 with Valpo in two of its last three road games during a stretch where the OVER is 4-2 in their last six.  Indiana State will control the tempo at home and make Northern Iowa try and keep up with them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Pitt/Syracuse OVER 150

Pittsburgh is a dead nuts OVER team here of late.  The Panthers are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 151 or more combined points in all eight games.  This is the rare year where they are better on offense than defense, ranking 21st in adjusted offense but just 63rd in adjusted defense.

The Syracuse Orange rank 65th in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo playing at home.  The Orange profile as an OVER team ranking 126th in adjusted offense and only 147th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for at least 146 combined points in six of their last seven games overall.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 154, 181 and 166 combined points in the three games that went over the total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pelicans/Grizzlies OVER 240.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The OVER is 7-2-1 in Grizzlies last 10 games overall with 234 or more combined points in eight of those 10 games.  That includes 238 or more combined points in five of their last six coming in.

The Pelicans are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 232 or more combined points in all six games.  They have scored at least 119 points in all six games as well as CJ McCollum is playing the best basketball of his career to lead the way.

The Grizzlies and Pelicans combined for 256 points in their last meeting in a 132-124 win by Memphis on December 27th earlier this season.  It should be more of the same tonight with the way these teams are trending.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Pelicans/Grizzlies NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +12

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming 120-119 at Boston as 14.5-point underdogs.  They have upset road wins over Philadelphia and Chicago as well during this stretch.

CJ McCollum is playing the best basketball of his career to lead the way.  The Pelicans have scored at least 119 points in each of their last six games.  McCollum has scored 50, 45 and 38 points here recently.

This feels like a letdown spot for the Grizzlies.  They are getting a lot of respect after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They haven't beaten the Pelicans by more than 11 points in any of their last seven meetings.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing New Orleans pertaining to this 12-point spread.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Villanova/Marquette UNDER 143.5

The Villanova Wildcats remain a dead nuts UNDER team this season.  They rank 349th in adjusted tempo and 333rd in average length of offensive possession.  Few teams play slower than they do.

The Marquette Golden Eagles are an elite defensive team this season.  They rank 13th in adjusted defense.  They make opponents work for everything they get as they are 352nd in average length of possession defensively.  Opponents take 18.7 seconds per possession to get a shot up or turn it over.

The UNDER is 5-2 in Marquette's last seven games overall with 142 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in six of those seven games.  Villanova and its opponents have combined for 127, 132 and 134 points in three of its last five games.

These teams squared off three times last season including in the Big East Tournament, so they are very familiar with one another.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Villanova and Marquette have combined for 137 or fewer points in four of their last seven meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago Bulls +1.5

This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 123-117 loss in Sacramento last night.  They couldn't have shot it any better hitting 22-of-48 (46%) from 3-point range and still lost.

The Warriors are a tired, banged up, struggling team right now.  They are without Draymond Green and Jonathan Kuminga, and the loss of Kuminga has coincided with their recent struggles.  Podziemski, Anderson and Looney are all questionable. 

The Warriors are 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games with their two of their three wins coming by a combined 4 points, and the other being an 8-point home win over the lowly Wizards as 14-point favorites.  They have a 40-point home loss to Boston, an upset road loss at Toronto, a 12-point road loss at Indiana, a 16-point home loss to Miami and a 30-point home loss to Sacramento during this stretch.

Te Bulls are fresh and ready to go after having the last two days off.  There's a chance they get back to full strength tonight with both White and Dosunmu questionable.  They won 112-99 as 6.5-point road dogs to the Clippers last time out and get to stay out West for this one.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Bulls won outright as 8.5-point dogs and outright as 4.5-point dogs in their last two trips to Golden State.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* Celtics/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

This is a terrible spot for the Boston Celtics.  They needed OT to beat a short-handed Clippers team last night that was without Kawhi, Harden and Powell.  They managed to win 117-113 as 12.5-point favorites.

But now they are on tired legs after Tatum played over 42 minutes, White over 42 and Brown over 38 last night.  They were without Porzingis, Horford and Holiday and there's a chance they return tonight listed as questionable.  But either way, those three are tired, and the team as a whole is tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.

The Lakers have won three of their last four and are coming off a 23-point rout of the Wizards at home.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 6th game in 16 days.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and ready to take their swing at the defending champs tonight.

The Lakers are 2-3 SU but 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings with two of the losses coing in OT.  The Celtics rarely get margin on them as two of the three losses came by 4 points or less.  Their two wins came by 9 at Boston and by 15 at home.  The spot really favors the Lakers tonight.  Bet the Lakers Thursday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco +10.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on St. Mary's.  The Gaels are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, but they couldn't have possibly played an easier schedule getting to face Pepperdine (twice), San Diego, Loyola-Marymount, Portland and Pacific.

The last time they had to face a real opponent they lost outright to Utah State as 5.5-point home favorites.  That was the end of a stretch that saw them go 1-6 ATS in their previous season games.  They only beat UTSA by 8 at home, Merrimack by 5 at home, and lost outright to ASU, Boise State and Utah State.

San Francisco is 16-5 this season with wins over Boise State, Saint Louis, Santa Clara and Oregon State.  Three of their five losses came by single-digits.  The Dons have a knack for playing the Gaels tough, especially on the road.

Indeed, the Dons haven't lost any of their last five trips to St. Mary's by more than 10 points.  That makes for a 5-0 system backing the Dons pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  They have lost 10 straight in the series and desperately want to end this streak tonight.  Bet San Francisco Thursday.

20* WAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Utah +11.5

Grand Canyon is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Antelopes are just 5-12 ATS in all games this season.  That's even after consecutive blowout wins and covers at home against Tarleton State and Abilene Christian.

I think those two blowout wins have the Antelopes overvalued again tonight as 11.5-point road favorites over Southern Utah.  They only beat Southern Utah 82-71 as 16-point home favorites in their first meeting this season on January 4th three weeks ago.

Now the Thunderbirds will be out for revenge in the rematch, and they are catching 11.5 points at home to boot.  They will be happy to be at home after having to play five of their last eight games on the road and all against quality teams.  The Thunderbirds are 7-2 SU at home this season with both losses coming by 8 points or fewer.  Bet Southern Utah Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on South Dakota/North Dakota OVER 176

I've been riding these Summit League OVERS especially with South Dakota, my favorite OVER team in the league.  The OVER is 15-1 in all South Dakota games this season and most are sailing over the total.

South Dakota ranks 3rd in adjusted tempo, 104th in adjusted offense and 358th in adjusted defense.  So they play super fast and play no defense, which is what you want in an OVER team.

Now they match up with a North Dakota team that plays a similar style.  The Fighting Hawks rank 115th in adjusted tempo, 156th in adjusted offense and 351st in adjusted defense.  So these are two of the 15 worst defensive teams in the entire country and both like to play fast.

North Dakota is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games overall with 180 or more combined points four times.  South Dakota and its opponents have combined for at least 174 points in nine of its last 12 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on St. Thomas/Nebraska-Omaha OVER 153.5

The Summit League is loaded with offense and St. Thomas is the class of it.  The Tommies are scoring 85.9 points per game and shooting 49.9% as a team. The Tommies rank 56th in adjusted offense, 4th in effective FG percentage and 6th in 3-point percentage.

Omaha has been no slouch on offense ranking 183rd in adjusted offense, 165th in effective FG percentage and 76th in 3-point percentage.  But both teams have been poor on defense.  Omaha ranks 272nd in adjusted defense while St. Thomas ranks 244th.

The OVER is 12-3 in St. Thomas' last 15 games overall.  The Tommies and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in nine of their last 12 games.  The OVER is 4-2 in Omaha's last six games overall.  They have gone for 167 or more combined points in four of those six games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +4.5

This is a terrible spot for the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 114-104 loss to the Detroit Pistons last night.  Trae Young played 40 minutes, Jalen Johnson over 37, Dyson Daniels 33 and De'Andre Hunter 30.  Those four will all be on tired legs if they play again tonight.

Clint Capela, who had 16 points and 10 rebounds against the Pistons last night, has already been ruled out.  They are also without Risacher and Nance Jr.  This is a Hawks team that just have a knack for playing to the level of its competition.  That outright loss to the Pistons last night was normal, and it wouldn't surprise me if they lose outright again tonight.

The spot really favors the Toronto Raptors.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days so they couldn't be more fresh.  They are coming off a 109-93 home win over the Magic, and they beat the Celtics outright as 14-point dogs and the Warriors outright as 5-point dogs in going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are pretty much as healthy as they have been all season only missing Immanuel Quickley right now.

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series as the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  I fully expect the Raptors to win this game outright tonight, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

20* Miami/Stanford ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -10

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next six games without him to fall to 4-14 SU & 3-15 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-14 SU in its last 15 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  Each of their last four losses have come by double-digits, including a 117-74 home loss to SMU last time out and a 89-54 loss at Duke the game prior.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play.

The Stanford Cardinal are playing well going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall including an upset road win at North Carolina as 11.5-point dogs last time out.  They won their only two ACC home games by double-digits over Virginia by 23 and VA Tech by 11, and I fully expect them to beat the Hurricanes by double-digits tonight.  Bet Stanford Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Georgia/Arkansas UNDER 142

The Arkansas Razorbacks have opened 0-5 in SEC play and are coming off a 83-65 road loss at Missouri.  Making matters worse, they lost G Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG) to a season-ending injury in the defeat.  So now they have to try and adjust without their PG and second-leading scorer moving forward.

The Razorbacks are going to have to rely on defense even more now because they are going to be even more lost offensively without Fland.  Arkansas ranks 36th in adjusted defense and 86th in adjusted offense.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Razorbacks last five games overall with 139 or fewer combined points in three of those.

The Georgia Bulldogs are 14-4 this season.  The biggest reason for their improvement is defense as they rank 14th in the country in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Georgia's last 15 games overall.  Four of their last five games have seen 138 or fewer combined points with the lone exception being against Kentucky, which profiles as an over team.  Both of these teams profile as under teams and points will be hard to come by tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Texas A&M/Ole Miss UNDER 141.5

Both Texas A&M and Ole Miss profile as UNDER teams.  Texas A&M ranks 11th in adjusted defense and 223rd in adjusted tempo.  Ole Miss ranks 12th in adjusted defense and 203rd in adjusted tempo.  So these are two elite defensive teams that prefer to play slow.

The UNDER is 7-3 in Texas A&M's last 10 games overall with 140 or fewer combined points in six of those 10 games.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Ole Miss' last 11 games overall with 142 or fewer combined points eight of their last 10 games.  

The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  These teams have combined for 142 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hornets/Grizzlies OVER 238

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home today, and the key to their offense in JA Morant is back and healthy.

The OVER is 6-2-1 in Grizzlies last nine games overall with 234 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  That includes 238 or more combined points in four of their last five coming in.

The Charlotte Hornets profile as an OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (29.3 PPG, 7.6 APG) is healthy and running the show.  They play a lot faster with him at the point and they are much more efficient offensively.  They remain a poor defensive team.

The OVER is 3-1 in Hornets last four games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between Charlotte and Memphis.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Thunder OVER 221.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder profile as an OVER team ranking 8th in pace and 6th in offensive rating.  They have gone for at least 220 combined points with their opponents in six of their last seven games overall.  They have had to go more small ball now without their two big men in Holmgren and Harteinstein.

The Utah Jazz profile as an OVER team as well ranking 13th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 4-0 in Jazz last four games overall with 223 or more combined points in all four games, and 220 or more in five consecutive games coming in.  They have upgraded Makkanen and Collins to questionable today so there's a decent chance they return.

The Jazz and Thunder have combined for at least 226 points in nine of their last 10 meetings.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 221.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +12

The Charlotte Hornets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall with three SU losses during this stretch coming by 4 at Detroit, by 10 at Cleveland and by 7 at Phoenix.  They upset Dallas at home, upset Chicago on the road and upset Phoenix at home.

The key to the Hornets playing their best basketball of the season right now is having La'Melo Ball (29.3 PPG, 7.6 APG) healthy and running the show.  C Mark Williams (14.4 PPG, 9.5 RPG) is one of the more underrated players in the league and is getting to showcase his talents now.  Miles Bridges (18.6 PPG) is also playing well, and Nick Smith Jr. is getting more playing time and showcasing his talents with Brandon Miller out.

This looks like a letdown spot for Memphis.  They had a huge comeback win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on MLK Day with a 108-106 victory.  That was their first home game back from a four-game road trip.  I don't think they'll be fully motivated against the Hornets tonight.

The Hornets have won each of their last two meetings with the Grizzlies 115-106 at home and 110-98 on the road.  They haven't lost any of their last 10 games by more than 12 points, making for a 10-0 system backing them pertaining to this 12-point spread.  They haven't lost any of their last 17 games by more than 14 points, so they have a long history of being competitive.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Xavier +8

The Xavier Musketeers have been rolling since getting their best player in Zach Freemantle (16.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG) back from injury.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, including an upset road win over Marquette last time out.

While that win over Marquette could set most teams up for a letdown spot, that won't be the case for the Musketeers tonight.  They want revenge from a 82-72 home loss to St. John's on January 7th just two weeks ago.  They shot just 37% from the field and 22% from 3-point range in that loss and are due some positive regression in the rematch.

This feels like a letdown spot for St. John's if anything.  The Red Storm are riding high on a five-game winning streak and won't be that motivated to beat Xavier for a second time this season.  The Musketeers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Bet Xavier Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +13.5

The Washington Wizards are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and have been pretty competitive.  In their one non-cover, the Wizards shot 32-of-89 (36%) from the field and 10-of-42 (24%) from 3-point range in their 123-100 loss at Sacramento.  I expect some positive shooting regression from them tonight.

Now they're up against a Lakers team that is overvalued and ranks just 24th in defensive rating this season.  The Lakers have just one win by more than 13 points in their last 22 games, making for a 21-1 system backing the Wizards pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.

The Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Lakers not once losing by more than 13 points.  Bet the Wizards Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Lakers OVER 228.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 253 combined points with Phoenix, 226 with Minnesota, 231 with Oklahoma City, 236 with Golden State and 223 with Sacramento.

The Wizards shot 32-of-89 (36%) from the field and 10-of-42 (24%) from 3-point range in that 123-100 loss at Sacramento.  I expect some positive shooting regression from them tonight which will be the key to us cashing this OVER 228.5 ticket.

The Lakers are as healthy as they have been in a long time and should hang a big number on the Wizards.  That's especially the case after playing some very good defensive teams here recently in the Clippers, Heat and Spurs.  But the Lakers rank 24th in defensive rating so the Wizards should hang a big number as well.

The OVER is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings with 231 or more combined points in all six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCF +16.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are overvalued right now since beating Kansas by 17 at home.  They went on the road and were upset by West Virginia last time out, and now I believe they are laying too many points at home tonight to UCF.  The Cyclones just lost Milan Momcilovic (10.3 PPG) to a hand injury prior to the Kansas game and his loss will be felt.

UCF (12-5) is one of the more underrated teams in the Big 12.  They have upset wins over Texas A&M at home and Texas Tech on the road this season.  They only lost to Houston by 1 as 13-point home dogs last time out, they upset Arizona State on the road the game prior, and they only lost by 8 at Arizona the game before that.

The Knights are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and will hang within this inflated number tonight.  Bet UCF Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State/Purdue UNDER 141.5

Purdue ranks 290th in adjusted tempo and 302nd in average length of offensive possession.  The Boilermakers are 22nd in adjusted defense.  Purdue and its opponents have combined for 142 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall, including 123 with Oregon and 127 with Washington in their last two games coming in.

The Ohio State Buckeyes have two recent games that went to OT that are pushing this total up higher than it should be.  The Buckeyes and their opponents have combined for 144 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last five games coming in.

Ohio State and Purdue have combined for 142 or fewer points in three of their last four meetings and 146 or fewer in all four.  They have combined for 146 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight of their last nine meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bradley/Belmont OVER 153.5

Two of the better offensive teams in the country square off tonight when Belmont hosts Bradley.  The Bruins will control the tempo playing at home.  They rank 23rd in adjusted tempo and 23rd in average length of offensive possession, and they will be pushing the tempo.

The Bruins rank 81st in adjusted offense and 243rd in adjusted defense, so they really profile as an OVER team.  They are scoring 81.4 points per game this season while ranking 38th in effective FG percentage and 45th in 3-point percentage.  The OVER is 12-5 in Bruins last 17 games overall.

Bradley ranks 82nd in adjusted offense, 7th in effective FG percentage and 1st in 3-point percentage.  The Braves are scoring 80.4 points per game this season.  These teams met last season with Bradley winning 95-72 at home for 167 combined points.  It will be another shootout in their first meeting of 2025.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Butler +13.5

Connecticut is overvalued after winning back-to-back national championships.  They don't have as much talent as they did the two previous seasons, and injuries are really starting to catch up to them as well.

The Huskies are 5-2 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They haven't won any of their last 10 games by more than 13 points.  Once the schedule has gotten tougher and they have gotten into conference play, they haven't been able to get margin on teams.  Second-leading scorer Liam McNeeley (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is out with an ankle injury, and leading scorer Alex Karaban (15.6 PPG, 1.8 BPG) is questionable to play tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Butler Bulldogs.  They put an end to their 9-game losing streak with a 82-77 home win over Seton Hall last time out.  They have been extremely competitive in recent losses as seven of their last eight losses have come by 10 points or fewer.

That includes their 78-74 home loss to UConn as 8.5-point underdogs on December 21st.  The Bulldogs have already proven they can play with the Huskies, and now they will be out for revenge on the road in the rematch.  They have five days off in between games to get ready for this one while the Huskies have only had two days off in between games.  Bet Butler Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Duquesne +4

The Duquesne Dukes are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven lined games with six outright upsets as underdogs.  

They beat UC-Irvine by 16 as 7-point home dogs, beat Rhode Island by 12 as 1.5-point home dogs, beat Saint Joe's by 4 as 2.5-point home dogs, beat St. Bonaventure by 18 as 2-point home dogs and won at George Washington by 8 as 4-point road dogs.

The Dayton Flyers are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Flyers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall with two wins by a combined 3 points at home against UNLV and Loyola-Chicago as double-digit favorites in both.  

They have three outright upset losses during this stretch to George Washington by 20 as 9-point road favorites, to UMass by 4 as 10.5-point road favorites and to George Mason by 8 as 7.5-point home favorites.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Duquesne Tuesday.

15* Jazz/Pelicans NBA ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans -11

I'm willing to lay the big number with the New Orleans Pelicans tonight for several reasons.  For starters, the Pelicans are as healthy as they have been in a long time and are playing their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Pelicans are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by a single point 120-119 as 14.5-point underdogs at Boston.  They upset the Bulls and 76ers on the road, and covered at home against Dallas and Utah.

The Jazz are a mess right now.  They are 1-5 SU in their last six games overall with their only victory coming at home by a single point over the hapless Brooklyn Nets 112-111.  Injuries and tanking are the biggest problem for the Jazz right now.

The Jazz are without four of their top five scorers in Makkanen (20.1 PPG), Sexton (18.3 PPG), Collins (17.9 PPG and Clarkson (16.0 PPG).  Sexton is only sitting out because is is almost 100% going to get traded before the deadline.

Sexton had 24 points in their 136-123 loss at New Orleans in their last game on January 17th.  So they won't have his production tonight, and the Pelicans actually are shorter favorites in the rematch after being 12-point favorites in that game.  There's value here on New Orleans even as a double-digit favorite.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

20* Ohio State/Notre Dame CFP Championship No-Brainer on Ohio State -9

Note: If you receive this play before NFL Wild Card weekend, I also recommend teasers with Ohio State -2.5 or better paired with the Bills -2.5 or better and the Rams +8.5 or better.  You may need to do a 7-point teaser.  Ohio State/Eagles ML parlay is also a good way to play it.

If you receive this play after NFL Wild Card Weekend, a 6-point teaser with Ohio State -2.5 or better paired with Chiefs -2.5 or better is another great way to play it.

If you're buying this play after the Divisional Round, then a 6-point teaser with Ohio State -2.5 or better pair with Bills +7.5 or better against the Chiefs is another good way to play it.

Ryan Day, Chip Kelly and the Ohio State Buckeyes learned from their loss to Michigan in the regular season finale.  They decided to open it up and let Will Howard cook in the passing game in the 12-team playoff, and it has worked wonders with all of their playmakers on the outside.

The Buckeyes crushed Tennessee 42-17 and jumped on the Vols early with a 21-0 lead after the first quarter.  They threw for 317 yards for the game and actually took their foot off the gas late with the game already in hand, or it could have been worse.

The same thing happened against Oregon in the quarterfinals as the Buckeyes blitzed the Ducks jumping out to a 34-8 lead at halftime.  Will Howard threw three touchdown passes of 40-plus yards in the first half and Henderson popped a 66-yard run after.  They took their foot off the gas in the 2H or it would have been worse than a 41-21 final.  This just goes to show how potent Ohio State could be for four quarters if they actually have their foot on the gas for all four.

Against a very strong Texas defense, the Buckeyes had to work a little harder in their 28-14 win.  They only managed 370 total yards but held Texas to only a pair of scores.  Texas has one of the best defensive lines in the country, something they won't have to worry about against Notre Dame.

Notre Dame is very small along the front four and will have to bring extra guys up in the box to try and stop the run.  The Fighting Irish lost DL Rylie Mills (37 tackles, 7.5 sacks) in the playoffs and he is out for the season.  LT Boubacar Traore (3 sacks) has been out since October.  DL's Onye and Botelho are also out hurting their depth along the D-Line.  CB Benjamin Morrison has been out since Week 7.

The Fighting Irish also have significant injuries along their offensive line.  They have been without starting C Ashton Craig since September 14th.  They just lost freshman LT Anthonie Knapp in their win over Penn State last week.  G Rocco Spindler will be available to play after leaving the Penn State game with an ankle injury. WR Beaux Collins (37 receptions, 458 yards, 3 TD) is questionable after playing just seven snaps against Penn State before leaving with a calf injury.

Ohio State is the better, much healthier team in this one.  The Buckeyes have by far the better offense and it's not even close.  But they also have the better defense.  The Buckeyes rank 1st in scoring defense at 12.2 points per game, 1st in total defense at 251.1 yards per game and 1st at 4.1 yards per play.

Notre Dame is handicapped on offense.  The Fighting Irish rely heavily on running the football to move the ball and score points because Riley Leonard just isn't a very good passer.  Well, running lanes will be non-existent against Ohio State.  The Buckeyes rank 5th in the country allowing 89.9 rushing yards per game and 2nd allowing 2.7 yards per carry.  Their ability to stop the run will be the difference in this game because Leonard isn't going to beat them with his arm.  Bet Ohio State in the National Championship Game.

15* Suns/Cavs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix +8

The Phoenix Suns are playing their best basketball of the season right now going 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their only loss coming by 5 at Atlanta.  The Suns made a trade for Nick Richards and he had 21 points and 11 rebounds in his Phoenix debut last time out in a 125-121 road win at Detroit.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have actually lost two of their last four and are kind of hitting a wall after a blistering start tot he season.  They lost by 15 as 9-point home favorites to Indiana and by 20 at Oklahoma City.

A big reason for their struggles was losing C Evan Mobley (18.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 42.1% 3-pointers) in that loss to OKC.  Mobley is one of the most improved players in the NBA, especially with his ability to now step out and hit 3-pointers.  The Cavaliers miss him a lot with what he can do on both ends considering he's already one of the top defenders in the NBA.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* Timberwolves/Grizzlies TNT No-Brainer on OVER 233.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home today, and the key to their offense in JA Morant has been upgraded to probable.

The OVER is 6-1-1 in Grizzlies last eight games overall with 234 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  That includes their 127-125 road win at Minnesota on January 11th for 252 combined points.

It's not like the Grizzlies shot the lights out in that game either as they shot just 44% as a team on a whopping 108 attempts from the field.  Neither team shot better than 40% from 3-point range either, so it should be another shootout in the rematch that sails OVER this 233.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Rockets OVER 222

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Rockets last seven games overall with 228 or more combined points in all seven games, including 234 or more in six of them.  They are playing with a lot more tempo of late and it is paying off as the Rockets have scored at least 119 points in each of their last seven games.

The Detroit Pistons are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall including 237 combined points with Toronto, 243 with New York and 246 with Phoenix.  They scored at least 121 points in three of their last four.  This total of 222 is way too short given the way these two teams are trending.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Kings OVER 232.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 253 combined points with Phoenix, 226 with Minnesota, 231 with Oklahoma City and 236 with Golden State.

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team since switching to Doug Christie at head coach.  They are getting back to pace and space.  The OVER is 6-1 in Kings last seven games overall with 241 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  They just combined for 259 with Houston, 245 with Milwaukee and 243 with Chicago in their last three games coming in.

The Wizards and Kings have combined for at least 233 points in four of their last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Denver Nuggets -7

The Denver Nuggets are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with all five wins coming by 11 points or more.  That includes a 133-113 win at Miami last time out.  A return to health is a big reason for their resurgence as Murray, Jokic and Gordon are all healthy right now.

The same cannot be said for the Magic, who are going through their worst stretch of the season due to all their injuries.  The Magic are just 6-11 SU in their last 17 games and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.  They were absolutely blown out in their last two games losing by 29 at Milwaukee and by 27 at Boston.

The Magic did get Paulo Banchero back from injury recently but he's not 100% yet and is on a minutes restriction.  He cannot make up for the losses of Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG), Jalen Suggs (16.4 PPG), Mo Wagner (12.9 PPG) and Goga Bitadze (9.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG).  The Magic are just so short-handed right now, and they stand no chance of being competitive against Denver today.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -7.5

The Green Bay Phoenix are a dumpster fire.  They are 2-17 SU & 6-12 ATS this season.  Head coach Doug Gottlieb is in over his head, especially since he is without his best player in Anthony Roy (25.7 PPG) due to injury after suspending him earlier this season.

The Phoenix have zero home-court advantage as fans are already tired of this team.  They even lost to DII Michigan Tech at home a few weeks ago.  In fact, 16 of their 17 losses this season have come by at least 6 points, and 15 of the losses have come by 9 points or more.  So they have rarely even been competitive.

Youngstown State went on a 9-1 SU run in a 10-game stretch with the lone loss coming on the road to IPFW before losing to Cleveland State and home and Milwaukee on the road in their last two games coming in.  That assures the Penguins will not have a letdown today as they'll be motivated to bounce back from those two consecutive losses.  Bet Youngstown State Sunday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on Santa Clara +15.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Bulldogs are shockingly 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are consistently laying too many points, and that's the case again tonight.

Gonzaga is coming off a 97-89 (OT) road loss at Oregon State as 9-point favorites on Thursday.  The Bulldogs will be on tired legs after having just one day to recover in between games.

I love the spot for Santa Clara.  After winning three straight games including impressive wins over Oregon State and San Francisco by 23, they were in a sandwich spot.  They lost outright at Loyola-Marymount as 4.5-point favorites on Thursday.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game against Gonzaga.

In nine road/neutral games, the Broncos have just one loss by more than 7 points.  They beat Saint Louis, TCU and Bradley on neutrals, pulled the upset of McNeese State and only lost by 3 at San Francisco.  They will hang within the number today.  Bet Santa Clara Saturday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Commanders/Lions OVER 55

These are two of the best offensive teams in the NFL up against two of the worst defenses in the league.  The books haven't set this total high enough even though it's the highest total of the playoffs.

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league that ranks 1st in scoring (33.2 PPG), 2nd in total offense (409.5 YPG) and 4th in yards per play (6.4 YPP).  The only important player on offense they are missing heading into the playoffs is RG Kevin Zeitler, but they have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and plenty of depth.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 12 defenders on IR or ruled out.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those four are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

Detroit has been forced to try and win shootouts down the stretch going 4-1 OVER in their final five games.  They accomplished it in Week 14 with a 34-31 win over Green Bay, but they couldn't in Week 15 with a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they knew they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

In Week 16, the Lions beat the Bears 34-17 for 51 combined points.  But this game was 34-17 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.  That means they didn't score for 20 minutes which just goes to show how much potential there is for more points.  The Lions called off the dogs, and the Bears were inept on offense.  The Lions had 475 yards on 7.3 yards per play, while the Bears had 382 yards on 6.5 yards per play but they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties including several holding penalties with a banged up offensive line.

In Week 17, the Lions beat the 49ers 40-34 for 74 combined points.  The 49ers even left some points on the board missing two field goals and a XP.  The only thing that stopped them was two bad INT's by Brock Purdy.  This game had 10 touchdowns and zero punts! That's the first time since 1937 that has happened in a game, and it just goes to show just how much of an OVER team the Lions are.

Week 18 resulted in a fluky 31-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings just couldn't punch it in in the red zone or they easily could have made that a game.  Sam Darnold had one of the worst games of his career consistently overthrowing receivers.  He also missed some wide open receivers.  Darnold had an equally terrible games against the Rams as he just couldn't handle the pressure of these must-win games.

Washington is going to be able to match Detroit score for score.  The Commanders rank 5th in scoring at 28.2 points per game, 7th in total offense at 368.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Lions are blitzing a ton to try and make up for all their injuries on defense.  It worked against the Vikings, but it's not going to work against the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels ranks 3rd in the NFL in EPA per dropback against the blitz.  He has rushed for 891 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6 yards per carry this season.  He scrambled 13% of the time against the blitz, which was more than any other QB in the NFL, and he accumulated more EPA than any other QB on his scrambles against the Blitz.

Aaron Glenn keeps blitzing heavy with this patchwork defense.  He is going to pay this week against Daniels.  The Lions have allowed a league-high 445 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.  The Lions play the 2nd-highest rate of man coverage, which is going to open things up for Daniels.  In recent seasons, Justin Fields rushed for 147, 132, 104 and 58 yards against Detroit.  Hurts rushed for 90 and Allen 78.  Stopping dual-threat QB's is something Glenn has not been able to figure out.

There's not a lot to like about this Washington defense, either.  The Commanders rank 18th in scoring at 22.8 points per game and 18th at 5.7 yards per play.  They allow 4.7 yards per carry on the ground which ranks 28th.  They play the 6th-highest rate of man coverage in the NFL this season, and Jared Goff ranks 1st in the NFL in EPA per play against man coverage.  The last team the Lions faced that played this much man covers was the Jaguars, who they hung 52 points on in Week 11.

Detroit and Washington are both aggressive on 4th downs and both have been wildly successful this season.  So these teams won't be settling for FG's they will be going for touchdowns.  The aggression will lead to more points offensively, but also possibly create some short fields for their opponents if they fail as well.

The Lions have scored at least 31 points in five consecutive games and they will get to at least 31 in this one.  I don't think it's much to ask the Commanders to get 24-plus, and I'm expecting more out of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.