25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -4

The Portland Trail Blazers are already highly motivated for a win Sunday after dropping four straight and six of their last seven all by single-digits.  They have four losses by a combined 5 points during this stretch.

That includes their 128-130 home loss to the Grizzlies on Friday.  Now the Blazers don't have to wait long for revenge as they host the Grizzlies again here two days later.  They will be the more motivated team, and that will lead to an easy win and cover as identical 4-point favorites that they were in the first meeting.

The Grizzlies are likely to be without Jonas Valanciunas again, and now they will also be without Jaren Jackson Jr., who has averaged 19.0 PPG since returning from injury.  He had 23 points in just under 25 minutes against the Blazers on Friday as they had no answer for him.  HIs loss is a big one.

Plays against underdogs (Memphis) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 91-54 (62.8%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, while also off two or more consecutive home losses are 80-45 (64%) ATS since 1996.  

Portland is 8-2 ATS following two or more consecutive losses this season.  The home team is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

15* Suns/Nets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix +2.5

The Phoenix Suns are coming off a loss to the Boston Celtics on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have since had two days off to rest and get ready for this game with Brooklyn.  And the Suns haven't lost two in a row since late-January.  Phoenix is a perfect 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.

While the Suns are almost fully healthy, the Nets will be without James Harden once again.  They should have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, but that won't be enough to take down the Suns.  And it's also a much tougher rest spot for the Nets who will be playing their 8th game in 13 days.

Phoenix also wants revenge from blowing a 21-point halftime lead in their first meeting this season to the Nets.  The Suns are 9-1 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last two seasons.  Brooklyn is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games after two consecutive division games.  The Suns are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  Phoenix is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as road underdogs.  Roll with the Suns Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Royals/Tigers OVER 8

The weather report in Detroit is going to help us cash this OVER 8 ticket today between the Royals and Tigers.  Forecasts are calling for 14 MPH winds to be blowing out to left-center today at Comerica Park.

Michael Fulmer is a gas can for Detroit who is 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA this season.  Fulmer is 2-5 with a 4.96 ERA in 11 career starts against Kansas City.  He is 0-1 with a 15.57 ERA in his last three starts against the Royals while allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 8 2/3 innings.

Danny Duffy is off to a great start this season which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  But Duffy is 8-10 with a 4.68 ERA in 25 career starts against the Tigers.  He is 0-0 with a 10.29 ERA in his last two starts against Detroit while allowing 8 earned runs in 7 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +13.5

You're paying a tax to back the Utah Jazz at this point due to having the best record in the NBA at 44-15.  That tax has made it a profitable move to fade the Jazz here down the stretch as they are just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Now the Jazz shouldn't be laying 13.5 points against almost anyone because they are without their best player in Donovan Mitchell (26.4 PPG, 5.2 APG).  They are good enough to still win this game, but asking them to win by 14-plus points to beat us is asking too much.

The Timberwolves are playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They have recent upset wins over the Heat by 8 as 7-point dogs and the Kings by 14 as 3.5-point dogs.  The trio of Karl-Anthony Towns, De'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards are showing what they are capable of playing together and having a lot of fun despite being eliminated from the playoffs.  They will relish this opportunity to try and take down the 'best' team in the NBA.

The Timberwolves are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.  Minnesota is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 9-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are sitting in 11th place in the Western Conference.  They are 3.5 games behind the Spurs for the 10th and final playoff spot.  It's safe to say this is a must-win for them, and they will be playing their most inspired basketball of the season tonight because of it.

It should be enough to get the win and cover against the Spurs are mere 2-point home favorites here tonight.  The Pelicans are coming off one of their best performances of the season in a 135-100 road win over the Magic to end a four-game losing streak in which they were in every game but just couldn't pull it out late.

Nobody has played a tougher schedule rest-wise than the Spurs since the All-Star Break.  THey haven't had two days off in a row since the break.  They will be playing their 25th game in 42 days here.  It's no wonder the Spurs are just 7-13 SU in their last 20 games overall.

The home team has won both meetings this season.  The Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win by more than 10 points.  Stan Van Gundy is 40-19 ATS in home games after having lost four of his last five games as a head coach.  This is a great 'buy low' spot on the inspired Pelicans tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Mariners/Red Sox OVER 9

The weather is going to help us cash this OVER 9 this afternoon.  Fenway Park is already hitter-friendly, and now we get 12 MPH wins blowing out to right-center and nearly 70-degree temperatures this afternoon in Boston.

Chris Flexen got rocked for 6 runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings in his lone road start this season at Minnesota.  Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 9 earned runs, 5 homers and 15 base runners in 10 innings in his last two starts against the Mariners over the past couple seasons.

Boston is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 home games with a total set of 9 to 9.5 runs.  The OVER is a perfect 9-0 in the last nine meetings with combined scores of 10 runs or more in all nine meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Nuggets/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +2.5

The Denver Nuggets have managed to go 4-0 SU in their four games since losing Jamal Murray to injury.  But their luck runs out tonight after winning their last two games over Memphis and Portland by a combined 3 points.

The Warriors simply need wins more right now as they are fighting to make the playoffs.  And they have come up very clutch here down the stretch with the pressure on.  The Warriors are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Boston by 5 and Washington by 4, two teams that are playing very well right now.

One of those wins during this stretch came 116-107 at home over Denver as 5-point dogs.  Steph Curry scored 53 points as the Nuggets had no answer for him.  And he is playing as well as he ever has right now, plus he is getting some help from Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr that he didn't have before.

The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Nuggets.  Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  The Warriors are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Denver is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Golden State.  The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS in road games when revenging a road loss this season.  Roll with the Warriors Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Wizards/Thunder OVER 228.5

The Washington Wizards are one of the best OVER teams in the NBA and it's rare that you see one of their totals set lower than 230.  We'll take advantage today.  The Wizards rank 1st in pace this season at 106.4 possessions per game and their offense has taken off since getting Bradley Beal back from injury.

The Wizards have scored at least 117 points in six consecutive games now.  They should be able to name their number against a Thunder team that has just quit playing defense.  The Thunder have gone 0-12 SU in their last 12 games overall and it's largely due to that lack of defense.

Indeed, the Thunder have allowed at least 110 points in 11 of those 12 games and are giving up an average of 123.5 points per game during this 12-game skid.  But they have scored at least 104 points in five straight games and should be able to put up enough points to help us cash this OVER.

Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (Washington) after two or more consecutive wins, with a losing record on the season are 56-20 (73.7%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Heat -5

The Miami Heat have finally gotten healthy and are starting to play like the team that made it all the way to the NBA Finals last year.  They are currently the 7th seed in the East and want to avoid the play-in at all costs.  They trail the Celtics for the 6th seed by just one game, and the Top 6 teams don't have to play in the play-in games.

The Heat have made a statement here of late by going 9-4 SU in their last 13 games, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three with an upset win over the Nets as 5-point dogs, a 22-point home win over the Rockets and a 20-point road win over the Spurs.

Now the Heat take on a depleted Atlanta Hawks team that will be missing their best player in Trae Young (25.3 PPG, 9.6 APG).  He left the Knicks' game last time out and they blew a big lead and went on to lose in overtime.  The Hawks will also be without DeAndre Hunter, Cam Reddish, Danilo Gallinari and Tony Snell.  They could be without Clint Capela, who is questionable.

Plays against home underdogs (Atlanta) - after covering four or five of their last six ATS, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Heat Friday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mariners/Red Sox OVER 9

The weather is going to help us cash this OVER 9 tonight.  Fenway Park is already hitter-friendly, and now we get 13 MPH winds blowing out to right-center and 54 degrees at game time tonight in Boston.

These are two gas cans going tonight in Yusei Kikuchi and Martin Perez.  Kikuchi has a 4.74 ERA in three starts this season, while Perez has a 5.93 ERA in three starts, including a 7.27 ERA in two home starts.

Boston is 14-3 OVER in its last 17 home games with a total of 9 to 9.5 runs.  The OVER is a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings with combined scores of 10 runs or more in all eight meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Orioles OVER 9

Camden Yards in Baltimore is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors.  And the forecast today will help us cash this OVER.  It will be 62 degrees at game time in Baltimore with 8 MPH winds blowing out to right-center.

Two gas cans will be squaring off today on the mound.  Jorge Lopez is 1-2 with an 8.56 ERA in three starts this season for the Orioles.  Cole Irvin is 1-2 with a 4.60 ERA in three starts for the A's.

Oakland has caught fire at the plate, which is a big reason the A's come in on an 11-game winning streak.  The A's have scored at least 6 runs in eight of those 11 wins.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 11 runs or more in six of those seven games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Baltimore with combined scores of 13 runs or more in all four.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Lakers/Mavs TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 216.5

The Dallas Mavericks just aren't playing any defense right now.  They have allowed 113 or more points in six straight games now after their 127-117 win over the Pistons last night that saw 244 combined points.  This game against the Lakers should have no problem topping 216.5 combined points.

The Lakers have allowed 111 or more points in three straight games and four of their last five contests.  Their offense should get a boost tonight with the return of Anthony Davis to the lineup after missing the past couple months with an Achilles injury.  Now the Lakers are near full strength as they are only missing LeBron James.

This has been a very high-scoring head-to-head series in recent meetings.  Indeed, the OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings with combined scores of 243 and 253 points.  That's an average of 248 combined points per game, so we are getting some great value here on the OVER 216.5 based off those recent results.

The OVER is 6-2 in Lakers last eight games overall.  The OVER is 4-1 in Lakers last five road games. The OVER is 4-1 in Mavericks last five games as a favorite.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday. 

20* 76ers/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -5.5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  After winning three straight road games by a combined 73 points, the Bucks have come back and lost their last two home games in upset fashion to the Grizzlies and Suns, two teams playing some great basketball right now.

The Bucks are fully healthy and rested and primed for a big effort tonight.  They come in on two days' rest having last played Phoenix on Monday.  Meanwhile, the 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a tough 113-116 home loss to the Phoenix Suns last night.

Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris and Seth Curry all sat out last night and are questionable to return tonight with various injuries and illnesses.  Now Joel Embiid is questionable with a knee injury and could sit on this 2nd of a back-to-back after playing nearly 33 minutes and scoring 38 points against the Suns last night.

The Bucks have owned the 76ers in going 9-4 SU in the last 13 meetings eight of those nine wins coming by 6 points or more.  The 76ers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as road underdogs.  Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Philadelphia.  Bet the Bucks Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Mariners/Red Sox OVER 9

The weather will help us cash this OVER 9 between the Mariners and Red Sox, which are two OVER teams in general with solid lineups and terrible pitching staffs.  The wind will be blowing out to right-center at 16 MPH at Fenway Park tonight, which is already a hitter-friendly park as is.

Boston is scoring 5.6 runs per game on the season and 6.5 runs per game against right-handed starters.  Seattle is scoring 4.6 runs per game against right-handed starters.  Justin Dunn is averaging just 4.8 innings per start in his two starts this season while Nick Pivetta is averaging 4.9 innings per start in his three starts.  The bullpens will be active early in this one.

Boston is 13-3 OVER in its last 16 home games with a total of 9 to 9.5 runs.  The OVER is 19-8-2 in Mariners last 29 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is a perfect 7-0 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 11 runs or more in all seven.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +2

The Memphis Grizzlies have quietly gone 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They have been underrated for over a month now.  They beat the Bulls by 11 and the Bucks by 13 in in their last two road games before losing in double-overtime at Denver despite leading basically the entire way.

Now the Grizzlies come in rested after having yesterday off.  The same cannot be said for the Clippers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 113-112 win over the Blazers without Damian Lillard in Portland last night.  They will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days and their 9th game in 14 days here.  

The Clippers won't have Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka or Patrick Beverly again tonight.  Paul George played 36 minutes last night and it wouldn't be surprising if he rests either.  Either way, being short-handed already makes this spot even more difficult for the Clippers tonight.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Clippers) - a good team outscoring opponents by 6-plus points per game, after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games are 43-16 (72.9%) ATS since 1996.  The Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games and 6-0 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Spurs UNDER 215.5

Two teams that prefer to play at slow paces square off tonight in the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs.  The Heat rank 28th in the NBA in pace this season while the Spurs rank 17th.  The Heat are 5th in defensive efficiency while the Spurs are 12th.  Miami is 23rd in offensive efficiency while San Antonio is 18th.

The UNDER is 3-0 in San Antonio's last three games overall as they combined for 213 points with Portland, 196 points with Phoenix and 203 points with Indiana.  The UNDER is 4-2 in Heat last six games overall as they combined for 205 points with Portland, 192 points with Phoenix, 216 points with Brooklyn and 204 points with Houston.

The Heat and Spurs have combined for 215 or fewer points in each of their lsat four meetings.  They combined for 209, 206, 215 and 183 points in those four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of just 203.3 combined points per game, which is more than 12 points less than tonight's posted total of 215.5.

The UNDER is 10-3 in Heat last 13 road games.  Miami is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight road games following two or more consecutive wins.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Spurs last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10.5

The Dallas Mavericks aren't playing well enough right now to be laying double-digits to the Detroit Pistons.  The Mavericks are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall which includes upset home losses to the Kings as 8.5-point favorites, the Knicks as 6.5-point favorites and the Spurs as 6-point favorites.  They also lost by 18 at home to the 76ers and their lone victory came by a single point at Memphis on a buzzer-beater.

The Detroit Pistons continue to play prideful basketball despite basically being eliminated from playoff contention.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall which includes two narrow defeats to one of the best teams in the NBA in the Clippers by 7 points on the road and by 2 points at home.

Now the Pistons get a big boost tonight as their best player in Jerami Grant is expected to return from a hamstring injury.  He has only played in two of their last seven games overall.  He averages 22.4 points per game and is one of the most improved players in the NBA.  Also, Cory Joseph (7.5 PPG, 3.2 APG) is expected to return from Bronchitis.

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (Dallas) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS since 1996.  Dallas is 1-9 ATS when playing against a bad team (25% to 40%) this season.  The Mavericks are 1-9 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games this season.  Take the Pistons Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -102

The Kansas City Royals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight to avoid the sweep against the Tampa Bay Rays.  They have dropped the first two games of this series, but I expect them to bounce back Wednesday due to their advantage on the mound.

Jake Junis is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing just two earned runs and nine base runners in 10 innings with 12 K's to boot.  Junis owns the Rays, going 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Michael Wacha hasn't been good since his heyday with the St. Louis Cardinals.  Wacha gave up 7 runs, 6 earned and 10 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Royals in a 2-8 defeat to Kansas City.

The Rays are 1-5 in their last six during Game 3 of a series.  The Royals are 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Kansas City is 7-2 in its last nine games following a loss.  The Royals are 9-1 in their last 10 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Royals Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Wizards UNDER 239.5

Both the Warriors and Wizards are fighting to make the playoffs in their respective conferences.  Both are surging right now with the Warriors going 5-1 SU in their last six games and the Wizards going 7-1 SU in their last eight games.  The turnarounds have come with some improved play on the defensive end of the floor from both teams.

The defensive intensity will be high in this game with both teams having a lot to play for.  And these teams just met on April 9th earlier this month with the Wizards winning 110-107 for 217 combined points, which is 22.5 points less than this 239.5-point total in the rematch.  So these teams are very familiar with one another having played less than two weeks ago, and familiarity favors defense and UNDERS.

The UNDER is 13-5 in Warriors last 18 road games.  The UNDER is 39-19 in Warriors last 58 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Wizards last 12 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Wizards last five home games.  

Golden State is 11-1 UNDER after covering three of its last four games this season.  Washington is 9-0 UNDER after two straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +12.5

The Orlando Magic are showing great value today as double-digit underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks. It's time to 'buy low' on the Magic, who have gone just 1-8 SU in their last nine games overall.

But the Magic have been competitive of late with an upset win over the Bulls, an 11-point loss to the Raptors and a 4-point loss to the Rockets. They still have some good talent in Wendell Carter Jr., Gary Harris, Cole Anthony and company to keep them competitive the rest the way.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Atlanta Hawks after going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Atlanta has only been a double-digit favorite once all season to this point, and that was a 10.5-point favorite over Detroit in their third game of the season. Atlanta is 1-3 ATS as a favorite of -7.5 or more this season.

The Hawks haven't won any of their past 14 meetings with the Magic by more than 8 points. That makes for a 14-0 system backing the Magic pertaining to this 12.5-point spread. Bet the Magic Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -3

The New Orleans Pelicans will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost three straight games coming in including the last two by 2 points and in OT to the Knicks. They will get back on track here against the short-handed Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets will be without both James Harden and Kevin Durant tonight. Kyrie Irving isn't good enough to carry the load without both of those guys. While the Pelicans are fighting to make the playoffs and have more to play for at this point, the Nets are just trying to get healthy going into the postseason.

Plays on home teams (New Orleans) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more who are also off two consecutive upset losses as road favorites are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1996. Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Nationals OVER 9

Two awful starting pitchers are up against two of the best lineups in the National League tonight. Also, the forecast is calling for temperatures in the upper-60's with 9 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center.

Adam Wainwright is 0-2 with a 7.10 ERA and 1.894 WHIP in three starts for the Cardinals this season. His last start came against this same Nationals' lineup, and he allowed 4 runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings.

Pat Corbin has been crushed in his two starts this season, going 0-2 with a 21.33 ERA and 3.002 WHIP while allowing 15 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings. Corbin has allowed 10 earned runs in 16 innings in his last three starts against the Cardinals. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +8

The Memphis Grizzlies have been grossly undervalued for weeks. They are playing their best basketball of the season right now and should not be catching 8 points against the Denver Nuggets. 

The Grizzlies are 11-6 SU & 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall. In those 17 games, they have lost by more than 7 points just once, making for a 16-1 system favoring them today pertaining to this 8-point spread.

If Denver was at full strength then maybe they could be close to an 8-point favorite here. But the fact that they are without their top two point guards in Jamal Murray and Monte Morris makes it obvious that they should not be 8-point favorites.

Denver is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after two straight wins by 10 points or more. Memphis is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Grizzlies are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with the Grizzlies Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Pacers UNDER 232

The Indiana Pacers are a tired team right now. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 5th game in 7 days and their 9th game in 14 days. They won't be looking to push the tempo today against the San Antonio Spurs.

The Spurs are more than comfortable playing at a slow pace. They rank 18th in pace this season and 18th in offensive efficiency. Both teams rank in the Top 13 in defensive efficiency. This 232-point total is simply too high tonight.

It has been inflated due to a recent high-scoring game that went to overtime between these teams on April 3rd. But familiarity favors defense and UNDERS, and it was a rare high scoring game in this series. In fact, 20 of the last 21 meetings have seen 231 or fewer combined points, making for a 20-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 232-point total. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -120

The Kansas City Royals came into the season as one of the most underrated teams in baseball. In fact, I placed a bet on them to win the AL Central at 35/1 odds. And they haven't disappointed as they are 9-5 thus far after winning five of their last six games coming in.

Now Danny Duffy takes the ball looking to build off his impressive start this season. Duffy is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two starts while allowing just one earned run in 12 innings. Duffy owns the Rays, going 2-1 with a 2.68 ERA in six career starts against them. He has allowed just 3 earned runs and 17 base runners with 29 K's in 19 innings in his last three starts against them.

This is an obvious letdown spot for the Rays after sweeping the series with the hated Yankees in New York over the weekend. They won't be up for the Royals like they were up for the Yankees. Bet the Royals Monday.

15* Suns/Bucks Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee -2

The Milwaukee Bucks are back to being fully healthy and are one of the best teams in the NBA when they are. We are getting them at a great value today as only 2-point home favorites over the Phoenix Suns.

The Bucks will be motivated to try and catch the Nets and 76ers for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. They are coming off a loss and facing a Suns team that has the second-best record in the Western Conference, so they will have no problem getting motivated to face them.

The Suns are finally starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers here late in the season due to that record after being undervalued pretty much all the way up until this point. They have failed to cover their last two games with an 8-point win over the Kings as 12.5-point favorites and a 26-point outright loss to the Spurs as 12.5-point favorites.

The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Bucks are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more. Milwaukee wants revenge from a one-point loss in Phoenix as 4-point favorites in their first meeting this season. Now they are just 2-point home favorites in the rematch, so you can see the line value. The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings. Take the Bucks Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Kings/Mavericks OVER 229.5

Defense is usually optional for the Kings and Mavericks, especially the Kings. Sacramento ranks 30th in defensive efficiency this season while Dallas ranks 17th. The Kings also like to push the tempo as they rank 8th in pace. This game should sail OVER the number tonight.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and 4-1 in the last five meetings. The OVER is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings in Dallas. The Mavericks are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games after failing to cover the spread four of their last five games. The OVER is 14-3 in Mavericks last 17 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Hornets OVER 217

It's time to 'buy low' on a Blazers OVER. They have gone under the total in four of their last five games overall. But they are still a dead nuts OVER team even without Damian Lillard because they still have McCollum, Powell and Carmelo Anthony running the show.

Portland and its opponents have combined for 221 or more points in 18 of their last 21 games overall. So this 217-point total is too low based on that. And Charlotte has no problem playing in a shootout, either. Charlotte and its opponents have combined for 218 or more points in 18 of their last 30 games overall.

The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 223 or more points in all four games. The OVER is 4-0 in Blazers last four games as road favorites. The OVER is 8-1 in Blazers last nine non-conference road games. Portland is 37-19 OVER when the total is 210-219.5 over the last three seasons. The Blazers are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees -1.5 (-109)

The New York Yankees will be highly motivated for a win Sunday. They have lost four straight overall including the first two games of this series to the Tampa Bay Rays. They will be desperate to avoid the sweep.

The good news is that New York sends it lone reliable starter to the mound today in Gerrit Cole. Their ace has been dominant his entire career especially the past handful of seasons. Cole is 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in three starts this season. He'll shut down the Rays today and get his team back in the win column. Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Suns UNDER 229

Two teams that play at slow tempos square off tonight when the San Antonio Spurs visit the Phoenix Suns. The Suns rank 25th in pace this season while the Spurs rank 18th.

The first meeting between these teams was very low-scoring and played at a snail's pace. The Suns beat the Spurs 103-99 for just 202 combined points with a total of 225. Now we have a 229-point total for the rematch, which is way too high.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last four games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Lakers +6.5

This is a tough spot for the Utah Jazz. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a big comeback win over the Indiana Pacers yesterday. And now they will likely be without their best player in Donovan Mitchell, who had to have X-Rays on his foot after the game yesterday.

You're definitely paying a tax to back the Jazz at this point due to having the best record in the NBA, and that has shown of late as they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Jazz.

It's also a good time to 'buy low' on the Lakers. They are coming off a loss to the Celtics and have been great off a loss. The Lakers are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. Bet the Lakers Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals +100

The St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated for a victory today. They have lost five of their last six games overall including Game 1 of this series to the Phillies. Look for them to take Game 2 today.

Stud starter Kwang-Hyun Kim makes his season debut today for the Cardinals. He will be opposed by the washed up Matt Moore, who hasn't been good in years. Moore is 0-0 with a 7.56 ERA and 2.041 WHIP in his two starts this season.

The Cardinals are 6-0 in their last six games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. The Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 games as favorites. Roll with the Cardinals Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Portland Trail Blazers after going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  The four losses came to the Clippers, Jazz, Heat and Celtics.  Now they are highly motivated for a victory and take a big step down in class here against the San Antonio Spurs.

The Blazers are also rested playing on two days' rest since their one-point loss to the Celtics on Tuesday.  Meanwhile, it's a terrible spot for the Spurs as they play their first home game following a five-game road trip. 

I always like fading teams in their first home game back from an extended road trip because there are so many distractions they have to deal with.  And the Spurs are simply a tired team right now playing their 20th game in 37 days.  It's no wonder they are just 4-11 SU in their last 15 games overall.

San Antonio is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games.  Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Blazers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Timberwolves OVER 219.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a dead nuts OVER team right now with Karl-Anthony Towns and De'Angelo Russell running the show.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 104.2 possessions per game and 27th in defensive efficiency at 112.3 points per 100 possessions allowed.

Minnesota has now played eight straight games in which they combined with their opponents for 222 or more points.  That makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 219.5-point total.

The Miami Heat will be able to name their score tonight agaisnt the Timberwolves.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 220 or more in each of the last three.  That includes a 129-126 win by the Timberwolves for 255 combined points in their most recent meeting.

Minnesota is 9-1 OVER after allowing 130 points or more this season.  Miami is 35-18 OVER in its last 55 road games following a loss by 10 points or more.  The OVER is 5-0 in Miami's last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 4-1 in Timberwolves last five games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Bulls UNDER 226

Familiarity favors UNDERS and defense, and the Bulls and Grizzlies will be rematching from a game from just five days ago on April 12th.  The Grizzlies won that game 101-90 for 191 combined points.  I can't believe oddsmakers have set this total this high for the rematch, 35 points higher than they combined for in that first meeting.

And the big difference is the Bulls will be without leading scorer Zach LaVine (27.5 PPG) this time around as he is in quarantine.  The Bulls will have to slow it down and run their offensive through Nikola Vucevic, and they won't have the pick-and-roll option between those two that was working so well.

Chicago is 12-4 UNDER in its last 16 games when revenging a road loss.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight home games.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington Wizards +2

The Washington Wizards are trying desperately to make the playoffs.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall.  That includes upset road wins over the Warriors and Jazz.

Now the Wizards are back home here hosting the New Orleans Pelicans.  The Pelicans have won three of their last four, but two of those were narrow wins over the Kings and Cavaliers.  They also lost by 10 to the Knicks last time out.

Having Bradley Beal back has made all the difference for the Wizards.  They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five games in which Beal has played with their only loss coming by 2 points.  He leads the NBA in scoring at 31.0 points per game.  He and Russell Westbrook are forming a nice chemistry now, and the Wizards are as healthy as they have been all season.

The Pelicans are 10-26-2 ATS in their last 38 Friday games.  New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on one days' rest.  The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 10 points.  New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Washington.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cardinals/Phillies OVER 8

Both the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies are loaded offensively this season.  And they should have no problem combining for 8 runs or more tonight in Philadelphia's hitter-friendly home park.

The Cardinals have scored 4 or more runs in four of their five road games this season.  The Phillies have scored 4 or more runs in four of their five home games.

Two poor starters square off tonight.  Carlos Martinez cannot seem to get healthy and is off to a shaky start this season, going 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in his two starts.  Zach Eflin gave up 4 runs in 6 innings against the Braves in his last start for the Phillies.

Philadelphia is 17-5 OVER in its last 22 home games following two or more consecutive unders.  The OVER is 5-0 in Cardinals last five games following an off day.  The OVER is 7-3-1 in Cardinals last 11 road games.  The OVER is 7-2 in Phillies last nine games overall.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are not just playing out the string.  They have gotten healthy here down the stretch and are playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with double-digit wins over the Spurs by 24, the Thunder by 27 and the Hornets by 13.  They also nearly upset the Pelicans in a game they led most the way before faltering late.

The Warriors come in getting too much respect from the books after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  Asking them to win by 9-plus points to cover this number on the road is simply asking too much.

This is a much worse spot for the Warriors than it is for the Cavaliers.  The Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are already short-handed without three of their top six scorers in Wiseman, Paschall and Oubre Jr.

The Cavaliers will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they had two days off prior to beating the Hornets last night, so they should still be fresh.  Only one player played more than 31 minutes for them last night.  And they could possibly get Collin Sexton back from injury after he sat out last night as he is listed as questionable.

The Warriors are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games playing on zero rest.  Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Cavaliers Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Mariners/Orioles OVER 7.5 (Game 2)

Baltimore has one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball at Camden Yards.  The OVER is 5-0 in Orioles' home games this season, including in each of the first two games of this series with the Seattle Mariners.  And this total has been set too low for Game 2 of this double-header this afternoon.

Justin Dunn was roughed up for 3 earned runs and 8 walks in 4 2/3 innings in his first start this season against the White Sox.  Dunn has posted a 4.26 ERA and 1.439 WHIP across 57 innings in three seasons in the majors.  The Orioles have scored 3 or more runs in five consecutive games and should get after Dunn today.

Bruce Zimmerman has posted a 4.50 ERA in two starts this season while allowing 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 12 innings.  The Mariners have scored at least 4 runs in four consecutive games and should get after Zimmerman today.

The OVER is 6-1 in Mariners last seven games overall.  The OVER is 12-3-2 in Mariners last 17 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-0 in Orioles last five games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Orioles last five home games.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last seven meetings.  Take the OVER in Game 2 Thursday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mariners/Orioles OVER 7.5 (Game 1)

Baltimore has one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball at Camden Yards.  The OVER is 5-0 in Orioles' home games this season, including in each of the first two games of this series with the Seattle Mariners.  And this total has been set too low for Game 1 of this double-header this afternoon.

Matt Harvey hasn't been good in years.  He has posted a 4.86 ERA or worse every season dating back to 2016.  He is 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA in two starts this season while allowing 6 earned runs and 15 base runners in 9 2/3 innings.

Marco Gonzalez is 0-1 with a 10.45 ERA and 2.130 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 12 earned runs, 5 homers and 22 base runners in 10 1/3 innings against the Twins and Giants.  Gonzalez is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.637 WHIP in three career starts against Baltimore as well.

The OVER is 6-1 in Mariners last seven games overall.  The OVER is 12-3-2 in Mariners last 17 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-0 in Orioles last five games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Orioles last five home games.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Wizards/Kings OVER 236.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Washington Wizards visit the Sacramento Kings.  We should have this OVER 236.5 covered with plenty of time left on the clock in the 4th quarter with how these teams play.

Sacramento ranks dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency this season, giving up 115.7 points per 100 possessions.  Washington ranks 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.5 points per 100 possessions.  The Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA at 106.1 possessions per game.  Sacramento plays at the 9th-fastest pace.

These teams played earlier this season on March 17th and combined for 240 points despite both teams shooting poorly from 3-point range.  Washington went 4-for-25 (16%) while Sacramento went 10-for-33 (30.3%).  They won't shoot that poorly again, and even if they do they still showed they could get to 240.  They also combined for 259 points in their previous meeting.

The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Sacramento.  The OVER is 8-2 in Kings last 10 games as home underdogs.  The OVER is 35-16 in Kings last 51 games following an ATS loss.  Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 230 or higher (Sacramento) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing another losing team are 34-11 (75.6%) since 1996.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +11.5

I've been fading the Oklahoma City Thunder with a lot of success because they were without five of their top six scorers for most of this stretch that has seen them go 1-10 SU & 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall with seven straight blowout losses by double-digits coming in.  But now it's time to 'buy low' on the Thunder tonight.

They just got two of those scorers back two games ago in Dort (13.3 PPG) and Bazley (11.9 PPG).  Dort went off for 42 points last night against the Jazz in a 10-point loss as 16.5-point dogs.  He was the only Thunder play to play more than 28 minutes last night, so they should still be reasonably fresh, especially since they had two days off prior to that game.  It will be just their 2nd game in 4 days.

The injury report for the Golden State Warriors right now doesn't warrant them being double-digit road favorites over the Thunder tonight.  They are without three of their top six scorers in Kelly Oubre Jr. (15.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG), James Wiseman (11.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Eric Paschall (9.5 PPG).  The Warriors are just 4-8 SU & 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games overall with only two wins by double-digits.

Golden State is 1-9 ATS following two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Oklahoma City is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing 105 points or more in five straight games.  Roll with the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +9

I absolutely love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They come in on two days' rest after losing to the Clippers 124-131 as 13-point road dogs on Sunday.  Now they will be out for revenge as they get to host the Clippers this time around as 9-point home dogs.

The Clippers trailed by 5 points in that game entering the 4th quarter before outscoring the Pistons by 12 in the final period.  And Detroit's best player in Jerami Grant (22.5 PPG) didn't even play in that game and has been out since April 6th.  But Grant is expected to make his return to the lineup tonight as he has been listed as probable.

This is an awful spot for the Clippers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight after a 126-115 win in Indiana last night.  They will be without Patrick Beverly and Serge Ibaka and there's a good chance Kawhi Leonard sits tonight as he is listed as questionable.  Paul George played 38 minutes last night and could rest as well.  Either way, this is a tired team that won't be all that motivated to beat the Pistons for the 2nd time in 4 days.

Detroit is 9-1 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 39% or better this season.  The Pistons are 12-2 ATS vs. good teams that outscored their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  Detroit is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games playing on two days' rest.  The Pistons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Detroit is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following a SU loss.  Take the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -113

I love the spot for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory after losing both games of their double-header with the New York Mets last night.  It's revenge time in Game 3 tonight.

The Phillies have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Zack Wheeler, who is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in two starts this season.  Wheeler went 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in 11 starts for the Phillies last season.  He has posted a 3.68 ERA in 139 career starts in the majors and is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.

David Peterson already faced the Phillies once this season, allowing 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 9 base runners in 4 innings of a 2-8 loss.  That dropped Peterson to 0-1 with a 16.50 ERA and 2.667 WHIP in two career starts against the Phillies, allowing 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 16 base runners in 6 innings.

New York is 1-10 in its last 11 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Take the Phillies Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -1

The Portland Trail Blazers come in highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four games.  But two of those losses came on the road to two of the best teams in the NBA in the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers.  The other was on the 2nd of a back-to-back against the Miami Heat.

Now the Blazers are rested after having yesterday off and should get back on track here against the Boston Celtics at home.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Blazers, who needed a few games to get Norman Powell and CJ McCollum implemented into the offense.  They also just got Jusuf Nurkic back from injury and are as healthy as they have been all season.  They will be a dangerous team moving forward.

The Celtics are getting too much respect from oddsmakers after winning three straight games coming in.  But two of those wins came at home over New York (by 2) and Minnesota (in OT).  The other was a road win over the short-handed Denver Nuggets who were playing without Jamal Murray.  This will be their stiffest challenge since a 10-point home loss to the 76ers prior to their winning streak.

The Celtics are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win by more than 10 points.  Boston is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS win.  Portland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  The Blazers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Celtics are just 11-16 SU on the road this season.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -1.5

The Charlotte Hornets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA all season as they are 27-25 SU through their first 52 games this season.  They have been especially underrated of late since some injuries have popped up as they have shown off their depth in going 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Now the Hornets are in a much more favorable spot than the Lakers tonight.  They had yesterday off following a 101-105 home loss to Atlanta on Sunday.  That was a tough spot for them as it was their first game back home following a six-game road trip.  Now the Hornets are rested, refocused and ready to go tonight playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

Meanwhile, the Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th straight road games tonight after a 96-111 road loss to the Knicks last night.  They remain short-handed without LeBron James and Anthony Davis and have really struggled offensively without these two.  The Lakers are just 5-8 SU & 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games overall since losing LeBron.

Charlotte is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Los Angeles is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Hornets are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss.  The Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss.  Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  Take the Hornets Tuesday.

15* Clippers/Pacers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +3

The Indiana Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season right now and it's due to being as healthy as they have been basically all season.  They have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with road wins over the Spurs, Magic and Grizzlies.  Having Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis healthy has made all the difference for them.

Now the Pacers should be able to take down a Los Angeles Clippers team that is short-handed and getting too much respect from the books after winning five straight games coming in.  Well, now they won't have their best player in Kawhi Leonard tonight, and they remain without both Patrick Beverly and Serge Ibaka.  They aren't good enough without those three to beat the Pacers with the way Indiana is playing right now.

Plays against road favorites (LA Clippers) - after four or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing against a team with a losing record are 60-25 (70.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Pacers Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 9

Even though it hasn't shown consistently yet, there's no doubt both the Yankees and Blue Jays have two of the best lineups in baseball.  And both starting staffs aren't very good, so these should be two OVER teams moving forward.

The weather in this game at TD Ballpark is going to benefit the OVER.  The temperatures will be in the 70's tonight with 7 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center.  Look for both teams to get their bats going after a pitcher's duel between New York ace Cole and Toronto starter Ray last night.

The Yankees have the benefit of already having faced Hyun-Jin Ryu this season.  Ryu is now 1-2 with a 5.53 ERA in five career starts against the Yankees.  Jameson Taillon is getting too much respect from oddsmakers after a solid start against the Orioles in which he allowed 2 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 2/3 innings.  Look for the Blue Jays to tee off on Taillon tonight.

The Yankees are 13-3 OVER in their last 16 road games after a win by two runs or less.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Yankees last five games as underdogs.  The OVER is 4-0 in Blue Jays last four games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Sacramento Kings +2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a terrible spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 5th game in 7 days and their 8th game in 12 days tonight.  They struggled with the Cavaliers last night and needed a late comeback to win 116-109 as 9-pint favorites.

They showed the fatigue against the Cavaliers last night, and it's going to be even worse tonight against the Kings.  Five different players played at least 31 minutes for the Pelicans last night, including 35 from Brandon Ingram and 36 from Zion Williamson.  Don't be surprised if Stan Van Gundy rests one or both tonight.

The Kings will test those tired legs because they like to push the tempo, playing at the 8th-fastest pace in the NBA this season.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  And it's a great time to 'buy low' on them off six straight losses against a very tough schedule.

The Kings have the Pelicans' number in going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  New Orleans is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite.  The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  New Orleans is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games after scoring 115 points or more.

The Pelicans are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season.  New Orleans is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 home games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 46% shooting or higher in the 2nd half of the season.  Roll with the Kings Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +11.5

You're definitely paying a tax on the Utah Jazz at this point in the season due to having the best record in the NBA at 40-13.  Now they are laying double-digits to the Washington Wizards despite being without two of their best players in Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson.

Meanwhile, the Washington Wizards are basically fully healthy right now and that hasn't been the case for much of the season.  Bradley Beal (30.9 PPG) was out from March 27th through April 7th.  He returned for two games against Orland and Golden State, and the Wizards won 131-116 over the Magic and upset the Warriors 110-107.  He sat out the 106-134 loss to Phoenix on the 2nd of a back-to-back, but he is expected back in the lineup tonight.

Washington hasn't lost any of its last four meetings with Utah by more than 11 points.  In fact, the Wizards pulled the 131-122 upset as 10.5-point dogs on March 18th in their first meeting this season.  Beal had 43 points in that game while Westbrook had 35 points, 15 rebounds and 13 assists.  With these two healthy the Wizards can hang with the Jazz again tongiht.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Utah) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent that scored 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games are 38-12 (76%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Wizards Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Jazz OVER 234

The Utah Jazz have been an offensive juggernaut all season.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 115.6 points per 100 possessions.  Amazingly, the Jazz have now scored 111 or more points in 34 of their last 36 games overall.

They should be able to name their score against a Washington Wizards team that plays no defense.  The Wizards rank 26th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up 111.4 points per 100 possessions.  They also play at the fastest pace in the entire NBA at 106.2 possessions per game, which is 1.5 possessions per than 2nd place, so they are a dead nuts OVER team.

The Wizards will definitely be able to keep pace with the Jazz now that they are basically fully healthy.  Bradley Beal (30.9 PPG) was out from March 27th through April 7th.  He returned for two games and scored 26 against Orlando and 20 against Golden State before sitting out the 2nd of a back-to-back against Phoenix.  Now he's back for this contest against Utah.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.  They have combined for 253, 248, 243 and 252 points in those four meetings and are averaging 249 combined points per game in those four meetings, none of which went to overtime.  So we are basically getting 15 points of value on this OVER 234 tonight.

Washington is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Wizards are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games against dominant rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 5-plus boards per game.  Washington is 8-0 OVER vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Heat/Blazers OVER 221.5

The Blazers were already a dead nuts OVER team because they rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up 114.3 points per 100 possessions.  And now they are an offensive juggernaut with the trade for Norman Powell from the Raptors and getting CJ McCollum back from injury in recent weeks.

The Blazers have scored at least 109 points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  They have also scored 108 or more points in 17 of their last 20 games overall.  They rank 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency this season and have been even better than that in recent weeks.

Portland beat Miami 125-122 on March 25th for 247 combined points.  The OVER is now 5-1 in the last six meetings with 224 or more combined points in each of the last five meetings.  They have averaged 232.2 combined points at the end of regulation in those five meetings, which is roughly 11 points more than this 221.5-point total, so we are getting great value with this OVER.

The OVER Is 4-0 in Miami's last four games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Miami's last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 12-4 in Blazers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 12-5 in Blazers last 17 games playing on zero rest.  Portland is 14-3 OVER in its last 17 games following two or more consecutive unders.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bulls/Timberwolves OVER 230.5

The Chicago Bulls are playing great offensively now that they have Nikola Vucevic from the Magic combining with LaVine, White and company.  This is one of the more underrated teams in the NBA now in the Bulls, who haver scored 106 or more points in six consecutive games.

They face a Timberwolves team that will have no problem getting up and down with them.  The Timberwolves rank 3rd in the NBA in pace this season and just got De'Angelo Russell back from injury and will speed up the tempo even more now.  They also rank 27th in defensive efficiency this season.

The Timberwolves combined for 278 points with the Pacers two games ago in a 137-141 loss in regulation.  Then they went to OT against the Celtics last time out in a game that saw 248 combined points at the end of regulation.  And the Bulls and Timberwolves squared off earlier this season on February 24th in a game that saw 238 combined points at the end of regulation.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  The OVER is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings in Minnesota.  The OVER is 7-2 in Timberwolves last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  Minnesota is 8-1 OVER after allowing 130 points or more this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Red Sox/Orioles OVER 9.5

The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best hitter parks in the majors.  There should be plenty of runs between the Orioles and Red Sox to cash this OVER 9.5 today.  The Red Sox have scored at least 6 runs in each of their last five games and should get to that number or more in this game this afternoon.

The weather also favors this OVER.  It will be in the 70's in Baltimore today with 8 MPH winds blowing out to right-center.  Boston is 15-4 OVER in its last 19 games after two or more consecutive OVERS.  The OVER is 5-0 in Red Sox last five road games.  The OVER is 6-0 in Red Sox last six Sunday games.  The OVER is 21-7 in Red Sox last 28 games overall.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pistons/Blazers OVER 223.5

The Blazers were already a dead nuts OVER team because they rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up 114.3 points per 100 possessions.  And now they are an offensive juggernaut with the trade for Norman Powell from the Raptors and getting CJ McCollum back from injury in recent weeks.

The Blazers have scored at least 109 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  They have also scored 108 or more points in 16 of their last 19 games overall.  They will hang a big number on the Detroit Pistons, who have allowed 124 or more points in three of their last six games coming in.  

But the Pistons are playing much better offensively of late as they have scored 113 or more points in four of their last five games overall.  They have averaged 121.3 points per game in their last three games.  Plus, there's a good chance they get back leading scorer Jerami Grant from injury after sitting out last game.

The OVER is 11-4-1 in Pistons last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The OVER is 5-1 in Pistons last six games playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.  The OVER is 11-4 in Blazers last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers -11

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been playing without five of their top six scorers in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Bazley, Al Horford, Luguentz Dort and Mike Muscala.  It's no wonder they have gone just 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall with all eight losses by 9 points or more and seven by 11 points or more.

The last five games have been really ugly for the Thunder as they have lost by 37, 48, 24, 11 and 27 points.  That's an average loss of 29.4 points per game, which is why I have no problem laying the big number with the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.

The 76ers shouldn't even be considering a letdown here after getting upset by the New Orleans Pelicans last night.  And I'm not concerned about them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back either because they had two days off prior to that game against the Pelicans, so they should still be fresh enough to put away the overmatched Thunder.

The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Philadelphia is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs.  Bet the 76ers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Cavs OVER 216.5

Two teams with little to play for at this point in the Toronto Raptors (20-32) and Cleveland Cavaliers (19-32) square off tonight.  I don't expect much defense to be played at all in this game, and this total is way too low for how these two teams have been playing of late.

The Cavaliers are coming off two of their best offensive performances of the season in scoring 125 points against the Spurs and 129 more against the Thunder.  Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are really starting to find their groove on offense.

The Raptors just haven't been playing much defense lately in giving up 109 or more points in 18 of their last 21 games overall.  But they are still a very efficient offensive team and should be able to hang a number on Cleveland, which ranks 21st in defensive efficiency this season.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series with 221 or more combined points in five of the six.  They have averaged 228 combined points per game in those six meetings, none of which went to overtime.  So we are getting roughly 11.5 points of line value on this OVER 216.5 based on what they have averaged in their last six meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Orioles OVER 9.5

The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best hitter parks in the majors.  There should be plenty of runs between the Orioles and Red Sox to cash this OVER 9.5 tonight.  The Red Sox have scored at least 6 runs in each of their last four games and should get to that number or more in this game tonight.

I like the fact that these lineups have already seen these starters once this season.  Bruce Zimmerman gave up 3 runs in 6 innings to get the win in an 11-3 win over the Red Sox on April 4th.  Garrett Richards gave up 6 runs and 9 base runners in 2 innings in this loss.

The OVER is 8-0 in Red Sox last eight games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The OVER is 20-7 in Red Sox last 27 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Yankees/Rays OVER 8.5

Any Yankees total that is 9 or less I'm going to be looking for a reason to bet the OVER.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball, and after a slow offensive start this season, they have scored 22 runs in their last four games and should be a much better OVER bet moving forward after opening 5-1 to the UNDER through their first six games.

The Rays are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall.  They just scored 10 runs against the Yankees yesterday and have combined with their opponents for 10 runs or more in each of their last six games.  It should be more of the same here as the Yankees and Rays combined for 9 or more with ease.

Domingo German has posted a 6.30 ERA in four career starts against the Rays.  Chris Archer has allowed 3 earned runs or more in each of his last four starts against the Yankees and has just been awful overall over the past few seasons.  

The OVER is 9-2 in Yankees last 11 road games. The OVER is 6-0 in Rays last six games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Rockets +13.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are coming off a massive win over the Phoenix Suns last night in a battle to win the Pacific Division.  This is the perfect letdown spot for them, and I'll gladly fade them in this spot laying 13.5 points to the Houston Rockets.

The Clippers will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Kawhi Leonard played 37 minutes last night and Paul George 34 minutes.  Don't be surprised to see one or both of them rest tonight.  Either way, they won't be nearly as motivated against the Rockets as they were against the Suns last night, and they definitely won't be as fresh.

The Rockets have been much more competitive since getting their best player in Christian Wood back healthy.  They are 2-0 ATS in their last two games, taking the Suns to the wire in a 130-133 loss as 14-point dogs and actually upsetting the Mavericks 102-93 as 10-point dogs.  They had yesterday off and will be fresh for this game.

The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Houston is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (LA Clippers) - after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points, playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Rockets Friday.

20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the San Antonio Spurs.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall coming in.  But they were a tired team with a lot of games recently.  They had yesterday off and I love the spot for the Spurs.

San Antonio will be out for revenge from a 96-106 road loss at Denver on Wednesday.  This is a double-header so they will be playing in Denver again tonight.  I expect them to be the more motivated team for revenge.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets after going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  After already beating the Spurs by double-digits just two days ago, they won't bring the kind of intensity it's going to take to beat the Spurs by 8-plus points tonight.

San Antonio is 22-5 ATS in its last 27 games when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Spurs are 64-34 ATS in their last 88 games when revenging a loss.  San Antonio is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog.  Take the Spurs Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +2

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing five of their last six games coming in.  Those losses came to the Heat, Mavericks, Nets, Celtics and Timberwolves with three of them coming by 2 points or less.  So they have played a tough schedule during this run and they have been competitive.

While it's time to 'buy low' on the Knicks, it's definitely time to 'sell high' on the Grizzlies.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  But they have played a pretty weak schedule during this stretch with their only impressive win coming on the road at Miami.

This will be the 4th road game in 6 days for the Grizzlies.  While the Knicks are as healthy as they have been all season, the Grizzlies will be without Clarke, Winslow and Melton.  Ja Morant is battling through a back injury as well, though he is expected to play tonight.

The Knicks are 10-1 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 this season.  New York is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a SU loss.  The Knicks are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Bet the Knicks Friday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -124

The Atlanta Braves were swept in their three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies to open the season.  It's safe to say the Braves will be highly motivated for revenge in Game 1 of this series with the Phillies in Atlanta tonight.

Charlie Morton has been one of the best starters in baseball over the past few seasons.  He will be motivated to beat Zack Wheeler after getting out-dueled by him in their first meeting this season on Opening Day.

Atlanta is a perfect 10-0 in its last 10 home games when playing against a team with a winning record.  Philadelphia is 21-52 in its last 73 games as road underdogs.  The Phillies are 5-12 in their last 17 meetings in Atlanta.  Bet the Braves Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Rays OVER 8.5

Any Yankees total that is 9 or less I'm going to be looking for a reason to bet the OVER.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball, and after a slow offensive start this season, they have scored 17 runs in their last three games and should be a much better OVER bet moving forward after opening 5-1 to the UNDER through their first six games.

Both of these starters are getting too much respect from oddsmakers with this total.  Corey Kluber is washed up and allowed 8 base runners in 4 innings in his opening start against the Blue Jays.  Rich Hill is 'over the hill' and doesn't even throw 90 MPH these days.  He gave up 4 runs and 7 base runners in 4 innings to the Marlins in his first start for the Rays this season.

The OVER is 8-2 in Yankees last 10 road games.  The OVER is 32-15-4 in Yankees last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 5-0 in Rays last five games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Suns/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 222.5

It's a good time to bet an UNDER tonight between the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers, who are fighting for first place in the Pacific Division.  Defensive intensity will be high in this game, and that should lead to an UNDER.

There's value with the UNDER due to the Suns going over the total in five consecutive games coming in.  But the Suns just played an OT game against the Jazz last night that finished with 230 combined points when it was only at 204 combined points at the end of regulation.

Now the Suns will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and they won't be looking to push the tempo on tired legs.  After all, they rarely look to push the pace as they rank 26th in pace this season.  The Clippers also prefer to play slow as they rank 27th in pace.  But what makes both these teams so good is their defense.  The Suns rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Clippers rank 9th and should be even better moving forward now that Patrick Beverly has returned from injury.

The Clippers and Suns have combined for 219 or fewer points in three of their last four meetings.  The UNDER is 15-5-3 in Clippers last 23 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Phoenix is 26-12 UNDER in its last 38 games vs. division opponents.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 210 or higher (Phoenix) - revenging a loss against an opponent that is off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 40-13 (75.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Jazz OVER 229.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts over team now that they have a healthy CJ McCollum (23.8 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) back in the lineup and trading for Norman Powell (19.4 PPG, 43.7% 3-pointers) from the Raptors.   Couple them with Lillard (29.2 PPG, 38% 3-pointers) and Anthony (13.6 PPG, 38.2% 3-pointers) and they are simply tough to tame.

But the Blazers have a key weakness and that is on the other end, where they rank 29th in defensive efficiency.  Only the Kings have been worse in that department.  So they are going to have to try and win shootouts moving forward.  They are 6th in offensive efficiency this season and face a Jazz team that ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series with 231 or more combined points in four of those five games and none of them going to overtime.  So there's clearly some value with this OVER 229.5 tonight, especially with the way the Blazers are currently built to operate compared to those previous five meetings.

The OVER is 5-0 in Blazers last five road games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Blazers last 10 games as road underdogs.  The OVER is 23-11 in Jazz last 34 games following a loss.  The Blazers have scored at least 109 points in eight consecutive games and 112 or more in seven of those.  The Jazz have scored 111 or more points in 26 of their last 27 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +6.5

This is a great spot for the Portland Trail Blazers and a terrible one for the Utah Jazz.  The Blazers will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, so they are rested and ready to go.  And they have been playing great since getting CJ McCollum back from injury and trading for Norman Powell from the Raptors.  They are 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming to the Bucks and Clippers.

The Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  Making matters worse is that they are coming off a 113-117 (OT) loss to the Phoenix Suns last night.  Donovan Mitchell played over 40 minutes, Rudy Gobert over 36, Bogdanovic over 39 and Conley over 35.  The Jazz simply won't have much left in the tank for the Blazers tonight.

Portland is 12-4 ATS in road games vs. teams that score 110 or more points per game this season.  The Blazers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  They should not be 6.5-point favorites tonight given the terrible spot for them and the great one for Portland.  Take the Blazers Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a mess right now.  They have gone 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall with all seven losses by 9 points or more.  The last four losses have come by an average of 30 points per game.

They are struggling because they are playing without five of their top six scorers in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Bazley, Al Horford, Luguentz Dort and Mike Muscala.  Making matters worse tonight is that they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days for a team that is already short-handed.

The Cleveland Cavaliers continue to battle and are coming off an impressive 125-101 upset win at San Antonio as 8-point underdogs.  Now they've had the last two days off, so they will be rested and ready to go.  They should have no problem handing the tired Thunder yet another blowout defeat tonight.

Cleveland is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games when playing against a bad team that wins between 25% and 40% of their games.  The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Brewers/Cardinals OVER 7.5

The St. Louis Cardinals have the best lineup in the NL Central which gives them a chance to win the division this season.  They have both Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in the middle of their lineup and are off to a solid start in scoring 5.5 runs per game despite playing three games in pitcher-friendly Miami.

This total is lower than it should be because the Brewers haven't lived up to expectations offensively yet.  But they should tee off on Adam Wainwright, who is washed up and gave up 6 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in his first start this season against Cincinnati.

The weather forecast will also favor a high-scoring game here.  The temperatures will be in the 70's in St. Louis today with 13 MPH winds blowing out to left center.  It's hard to believe this total is only 7.5 given the forecast and with Wainwright on the mound.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Red Sox/Orioles OVER 9

Baltimore boasts one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors.  Couple with that the fact that the weather is going to aid runs being scored and we have a play on the OVER here.  Temperates will be in the upper-60's Thursday with 11 MPH wind blowing out to left field for the start of this game.

Boston has a terrible staff but a great lineup and that was on display in sweeping the Rays last series.  They scored at least 6 runs in all three wins and a combined 25 runs for the series, which is no small feat against that Rays' staff.  And they should be able to get to Matt Harvey, who has been awful the past couple seasons in the big leagues.  He posted an 11.57 ERA in 11 2/3 innings last season and a 7.09 ERA in 59 2/3 innings in 2019.

The Orioles are off to a slow start offensively this season, but this will be their first home game, and that should change today.  They should be able to get to Eduardo Rodriquez of the Red Sox, who is one of the many awful starters in their rotation.

Rodriquez is 10-0 OVER in road games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse over the last three seasons.  Rodriquez is 12-1 OVER as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last three years.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Rockets OVER 222

The Dallas Mavericks are hitting on all cylinders offensively with Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis both healthy.  They have scored 109 or more points in seven of the last eight games in which Doncic has played with the only exception coming against the Knicks, who play at a snail's pace and play great defense.

I think we are getting tremendous value with this OVER tonight due to the Mavericks going under the total in six of their last seven games overall.  And the fact that the Rockets have been an under team for the majority of the season, but that is no longer the case.

The Rockets have been much better offensively since getting their best player back from injury in Christian Wood (20.9 PPG, 36.6% 3-pointers).  The Rockets have scored 100-plus points in nine of their last 10 games in which Wood has played.  In their last two games, they hung 115 on the Pelicans and then 130 on the Suns, who are known for great defense.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 241 or more points in all four OVERS.  The OVER is 6-0 in Mavericks last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The OVER is 21-10 in Mavericks last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +4

The New York Knicks are highly motivated for a victory after losing four of their last five games coming in.  Three of the losses were to three of the best teams in the NBA in the Nets, Heat and Mavericks.  They had yesterday off to regroup, and they are as healthy as they have been in a long time and nearly pulled the upset in a 112-114 loss to the Nets last time out.

Now the Knicks face a tired Boston Celtics team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 96-106 loss to Philadelphia last night.  Both Evan Fournier and Kemba Walker will sit tonight, and Jayson Tatum (35 minutes), Marcus Smart (36) and Jaylen Brown (33) will still be tired after playing big minutes last night.  It will also be the 14th game in 23 days for the Celtics.

The Knicks went on the road and crushed the Celtics 105-75 as 7-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  New York is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  New York is 17-8-1 ATS in its last 26 games overall and remains undervalued tonight given the tough spot for the Celtics.  Boston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games playing on zero rest.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* Pelicans/Nets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets are overvalued after going 21-4 SU in their last 25 games overall that has them sitting in a tie for 1st place in the Eastern Conference.  But I've been 'selling high' on them for weeks and cashing in, and I'll continue to do so tonight.

Despite their SU success the Nets are just 3-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Eight of their last 10 wins have come by 9 points or fewer, and asking them to beat the Pelicans by double-digits to cover this spread is asking too much.  That's especially the case with James Harden, Landry Shamet and Tyler Johnson all out tonight.  I know Kevin Durant makes his much anticipated return tonight, but there's no doubt he will be on a minutes restriction and they will be careful with him.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pelicans after going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off a 107-123 loss to the Hawks last night in which the Hawks made 11-of-11 3-pointers in the 3rd quarter to pull away.  The blowout nature of the defeat allowed the Pelicans to rest their starters late, and they should still be relatively fresh for this game against the Nets.  Zion Williamson and Lonzo Ball just returned to the lineup, and there's a chance they get Brandon Ingram back tonight.

The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  The Nets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites.  Brooklyn is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* AL East TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Orioles/Yankees OVER 9

The New York Yankees have one of the best lineups in baseball.  They are more than capable of covering this OVER on their own, but I'm expecting the Orioles to chip in plenty this time.  The Yankees have scored exactly 7 runs in each of the first two games in this series and they will likely get at least 7 tonight.

John Means is 0-2 with a 9.19 ERA and 1.595 WHIP in four career starts against the Yankees.  Jameson Taillon is makes his Yankee debut after pitching in pitcher-friendly Pittsburgh the past four seasons.  He won't have that luxury tonight with the Yankees, who play in one of the best hitter parks in the majors.

The OVER is 52-16-1 in the last 69 meetings in this series.  The OVER is 25-9 in the last 34 meetings in New York.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Early Afternoon Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Rangers OVER 8.5

The Toronto Blue Jays have one of the most potent lineups in baseball and are an OVER team in my opinion because of it.  The Texas Rangers have one of the worst staffs in baseball but a decent lineup and should be an OVER team as well.

The OVER is 4-1 in all Rangers'  games this season with combined scores of 10 or more in four of the five.  Kyle Gibson was rocked for 5 earned runs in 1/3 of an inning in his opening day start against the Royals, a 10-14 defeat.  Gibson has posted a 4.61 ERA in nine career starts against Toronto.

The OVER is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings in this series.  The OVER is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Texas.  The OVER is 20-7-3 in Rangers last 30 games with a total set of 7.0 to 8.5.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Clippers OVER 228.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team since getting CJ McCollum back from injury and Norman Powell from the Raptors via trade.  They are tough to tampe offensively as they have scored 109 or more points in seven straight games and 108 or more in 15 of their last 17 games.

The Blazers are also 29th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up 113.8 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Kings have been worse.  They face a Clippers team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 115.7 points per 100 possessions.  The Blazers are 6th in offensive efficiency at 114.1 points per 100 possessions.

The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings in this series with combined scores of 239 and 233 points.  These teams should have no problem topping 230 combined points tonight given that they both as healthy as they have been in a long time.

The OVER is 7-2 in Blazers last nine games as road underdogs.  The OVER is 4-0 in Blazers last four road games.  Portland is 13-3 OVER in its last 16 games following two or more consecutive underdogs.  The Blazers are 25-8 OVER in their last 33 games after winning three of their last four games coming in.  The Clippers are 21-6 OVER in their last 27 games following a win over a division rival.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +14

The Detroit Pistons just blew out the Oklahoma City Thunder 132-108 on the road last night.  It was their third blowout victory in five games as they also beat the Raptors by 14 and the Wizards by 29 recently.  They have no quietly gone 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games overall and have been a very profitable team to back of late.

The fact that they blew out the Thunder last night actually makes this 2nd of a back-to-back situation a lot easier on them tonight.  None of their starters played more than 23 minutes last night, and nobody on their entire team played more than 25 minutes.  They will still be fresh tonight, and this back-to-back situation is being factored into this line too much.

I think the Nuggets are starting to get bored.  That showed last time out as they trailed the Magic by 18 at halftime before coming back to win by 10.  That was an awful Magic team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a loss in Utah the night before.  If the Magic could stay within 10 in that spot, the Pistons can certainly do the same.  The Nuggets are finding it harder to get motivated after winning five straight coming in, and it's time to 'sell high' on them.

Detroit is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  They have been great at playing up to their level of competition this season.  The Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games playing on zero rest.  Denver is 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, so they have had a tendency of playing down to their level of competition.  Detroit is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Pistons Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Rangers OVER 9.5

If they have the roof open tonight in Arlington, the wind will be blowout out to left at 18 MPH with temps touching 80 degrees.  Either way, I like this OVER tonight between the Blue Jays and Rangers.

The Blue Jays have one of the most potent lineups in baseball and should be able to get to youngster Dane Dunning for the Rangers.  Texas is primed for one of its best offensive outings of the season against Tanner Roark, who went 2-3 with a 6.80 ERA and 1.741 WHIP in 11 starts last year for the Blue Jays.  Roark also posted an 8.44 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings this spring.

The OVER is 9-4-2 in the last 15 meetings in this series.  The OVER is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Texas.  Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +1

The Chicago Bulls just got both Zach LaVine and Coby White back from injury two games ago.  After a game effort without those two in a 5-point loss at Phoenix as 8.5-point dogs, they also took the Jazz to the wire in a 7-point road loss as 11-point dogs.  Then they came back and upset the Nets by 8 as 2.5-point dogs.

So the Bulls just showed they could hang with three of the best teams in the NBA in the Suns, Jazz and Nets.  And now I expect them to take down the Indiana Pacers tonight.  Nikola Vucevic is getting more and more comfortable with his new team, and the Bulls are definitely a 'buy on' team moving forward.

The Pacers just can't seem to stay healthy and it's a big reason they are just 7-12 SU & 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  T.J. Warren remains out, and Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon and Jeremy Lamb are all questionable tonight.  The good news is I like the Bulls to win this game whether or not those three play.  If any of them sits it's an added bonus.

The Bulls are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on one days' rest.  Indiana is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games.  The Pacers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 120 points in their previous game.  Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last five games playing on two days' rest.  Chicago is 16-6 ATS in all road games this season.  Take the Bulls Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Yankees OVER 8

This total has been set too low tonight between the Orioles and Yankees.  It's been set low because Gerrit Cole is on the mound for the Yankees.  But the Yankees are more than capable of scoring 8 runs on their own as they got to 7 last night.  And I expect the Orioles to chip in enough runs to help get this OVER as well.

The OVER is 51-16-1 in the last 68 meetings.  The OVER is 24-9 in the last 33 meetings in New York.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Baylor/Gonzaga Championship Game No-Brainer on Baylor +4.5

The Baylor Bears have been the second-best team in the country all season and it really hasn't even been close.  They are 27-2 this season and their only struggles came after a COVID pause for three weeks.  They went 1-7 ATS in their next eight games after the pause and entered the NCAA Tournament undervalued because of it.

After barely failing to cover in a 24-point win over Harford as 25.5-point favorites in their opener, the Bears have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since.  They beat Wisconsin by 13 as 6.5-point favorites, beat Villanova by 11 as 7.5-point favorites and topped Arkansas by 9 as 7.5-point favorites.  Then they blasted Houston 78-59 as 5-point favorites in the Final Four.

I think the blowout nature of that win helps them here in the Championship Game.  The Bears will still be fresh and ready to go.  Meanwhile, Gonzaga had to play the late game and went into overtime with UCLA, winning a 93-90 thriller.  There's no question the Bears will be the fresher, more prepared team after playing in the early game on Saturday.  They got to watch Gonzaga after and got a head start to game planning.  I think this is now a very evenly-matched game and I actually make Baylor a slight favorite, so I definitely love getting the +4.5 here.

Baylor is just so tough to tame as they average 82.8 points per game and shoot 41.2% from 3-point range as a team.  Their top five scorers all shoot 39.6% or better from 3-point range.  Gonzaga just allowed a poor UCLA offensive team to shoot 57.6% against them and every player that played in the game for the Bruins shot at least 50% from the floor.  You can just imagine what Baylor is going to do against this soft Gonzaga defense.

While Baylor is known for being an offensive juggernaut, and rightfully so, I actually believe the Bears are the better defensive team here.  That has shown in the NCAA Tournament as they are allowing just 60.0 points per game and 42% shooting in their five tournament games.  Gonzaga hasn't seen a team that is as athletic defensively as Baylor is all season.  Nothing is going to come easy for the Bulldogs tonight.

The Bears are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Baylor is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as underdogs.  Bet Baylor Monday.

20* Knicks/Nets NBA TV No-Brainer on New York +5.5

The Brooklyn Nets have been money burners for weeks.  They are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They continue to be overvalued due to going 20-4 SU in their last 24 games overall.  But most of their wins have been close of late, and getting 5.5 points with the Knicks tonight is too much.

This is a terrible spot for the Nets as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 107-115 loss in Chicago last night.  They are already without Kevin Durant, and James Harden is questionable with a hamstring injury after sitting out last night.  Tyler Johnson is doubtful and Landry Shamet is questionable.  Irving (38 minutes), Harris (34) and Brown (30) all had to play big minutes last night against the Bulls.

The Knicks had yesterday off following their 125-81 blowout win at Detroit on Saturday.  They will be the fresher team, and they'll be highly motivated for revenge after losing their first two meetings this season with the Nets by 7 and 5 points.  They can stay within 5.5 in the 3rd meeting and possibly pull the upset given the favorable spot for them and the tough one for the Nets.

New York is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 games when revenging a same-season loss.  The Knicks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season.  New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Brooklyn is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite.  New York is 6-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Brooklyn.  Bet the Knicks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Raptors OVER 228.5

Two great OVER teams square off tonight as the Washington Wizards visit the Toronto Raptors.  I think we see 230-plus points with ease tonight between these teams, which has been the case in recent meetings as well.

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 230 or more points in all seven meetings.  They have averaged 241.7 combined points at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, which is roughly 13 points more than tonight's posted today of 228.5.

Washington is a great OVER team because they play at the fastest pace in the entire NBA at 106.3 possessions per game.  They also rank 26th in defensive efficiency, giving up 111.5 points per 100 possessions.  The Raptors play at the 12th-fasted pace and rank 14th in offensive efficiency.

Toronto is 8-1 OVER when playing against a bad team (25% to 40%) this season.  Washington is 8-1 OVER when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Raptors last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +6

The Utah Jazz are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers right now due to having the best record in the Western Conference at 38-11 this season.  It's time to 'sell high' on them tonight as 6-point road favorites over the Dallas Mavericks.

What seems to be going unnoticed is how well the Mavericks are playing of late when Luka Doncic has been healthy and in the lineup.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six games in which Doncic has played.  They beat the Blazers by 40, the Timberwolves by 20, the Thunder by 21, the Celtics by 5, the Knicks by 13 and the Wizards by 22. 

The Mavericks will be highly motivated for a win tonight to get revenge from two road losses at Utah in their first two meetings this season.  The Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Utah is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 trips to Dallas.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Orioles/Yankees OVER 9.5

Great scoring conditions in New York tonight.  The forecast is calling for 15 MPH winds blowing out to right field and temperatures in the 60's for the start of the game.  It's already a short porch in right, so look for plenty of homers in this one to help aid the OVER.

I think we are getting value with the OVER because the Yankees just went under the total in three straight games with the Blue Jays to open the season.  But this lineup is too potent to be held down for long, and the Orioles also have an underrated lineup to match them.

Baltimore starter Jorge Lopez is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in three career starts against the Yankees.  The OVER is 51-15-1 in the last 67 meetings.  The OVER is 24-8 in the last 32 meetings in New York.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Rangers OVER 9

Chances are they are going to have the roof open at Globe Life Park today in Texas due to the weather forecast.  It's expected to be 76 degrees in Arlington with 14 MPH winds blowing out to left field.  But I like this OVER either way.

The Blue Jays have one of the best lineups in baseball this season.  The Rangers have one of the worst staffs in baseball, but they do have plenty of home run hitters to keep up with teams.  That showed over the weekend as the OVER went 3-0 in each of Texas' three games at Kansas City as they scored 21 runs but gave up 28 to the Royals.

The OVER is 9-3-2 in the last 14 meetings in this series.  The OVER is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings in Texas.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +9

The Charlotte Hornets are missing some players like Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk.  But these injuries are being factored into this line too much, and asking the Boston Celtics to beat them by double-digits to cover this 9-point spread is asking too much.

The Hornets have proven they can still play well without Ball by going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And they lost Hayward early in the game last time out and still went on the road and beat the Pacers 114-97 on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They are a deep team that can handle these losses better than most teams.

The Celtics just aren't playing well enough to be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers.  They are 4-7 SU & 5-6 ATS in their last 11 games overall with three of those wins coming against the lowly Magic, Thunder and Rockets.  It's worth noting the Celtics could also be without Jaylen Brown, who left last game with a knee injury and is questionable tonight.

The Hornets are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Charlotte is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Sunday games.  The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Celtics are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win.  Boston is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS win.  The Celtics are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Take the Hornets Sunday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland A's -106

It's safe to say the Oakland A's will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 Sunday after losing the first three games of this series.  They do not want to get swept by the hated Houston Astros in this series.

I like their chances of getting a win in Game 4 due to their advantage on the mound.  Sean Manaea has posted a 3.55 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 14 career starts against Houston.  He is primed for a huge season now that he is healthy.

Jose Urquidy has never beaten the A's, going 0-1 with a 4.11 ERA in three career starts against them.  The Astros are 0-3 in those three starts.

The A's are 44-20 in their last 64 games following a loss.  Oakland is 50-25 in its last 75 home games.  Bet the A's Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/Royals OVER 9.5

The Rangers and Royals combined for 24 runs in Game 1 and 15 more runs in Game 2.  It should be more of the same today due to the weather.  It's going to be high 70's with 13 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center in Kansas City today.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight games coming in, but covered in their last two in a 5-point loss at Phoenix as 8.5-point dogs and a 7-point loss at Utah as 11-point dogs.

If they can hang with both Utah and Phoenix, the two teams with the best records in the Western Conference, they can certainly beat the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  It's worth noting that the Bulls just got both Zach LaVine and Coby White back from injury for the Jazz game after they both sat out the Suns game.  And Nikola Vucevic is getting comfortable in their offense now.

The Bulls can certainly beat a Brooklyn Nets team that will be missing their two best players in James Harden and Kevin Durant.  The Nets were able to beat the Hornets without these two last time out, but they won't be able to beat the Bulls without them.  Especially not a Bulls team that is this motivated for a win and playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Plays against road favorites (Brooklyn) - after four or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Nets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorites.  Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 Sunday games.  Bet the Bulls Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cardinals/Reds OVER 9.5

The Cardinals have the best lineup in the NL Central with Goldschmidt and Arenado in the middle of it.  The Reds probably have the second-best lineup.  Both of these starting staffs are awful, which should lead to a lot of OVERS for both teams this season.

That has been the case in the first two games of this series.  They combined for 17 runs in Game 1 and 15 more runs in Game 2.  It should be more of the same in Game 3 due to the weather.  It will be high 60's with 5 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +16

The Orlando Magic have been an undervalued commodity since trading away three of their best players in Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier.  They clearly weren't going anywhere with those three, so it was time to move on.  And the roster that is left over isn't as bad as it is perceived to be, and these guys are playing with huge chips on their shoulders.

Indeed, the Magic have gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They pulled the upset over the Suns as 9.5-point dogs, upset the Clippers as 11-point dogs and upset the Pelicans as 5-point dogs.  They also only lost by 3 as 7-point dogs to the Lakers and by 7 as 9.5-point dogs to the Blazers.  They got Wendell Carter Jr. and Otto Porter Jr. from the Bulls, and they've had several players step up that were already on the roster.

Now the Magic are catching a whopping 16 points against the Utah Jazz, who are overvalued due to having the best record in the Western Conference.  I faded the Jazz yesterday with success and cashed in the Bulls +13.5 in a 7-point loss, and I'll fade the Jazz again today in this awful spot.  

Utah will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days here.  Don't be surprised if they elect to rest some starters after all five starters played more than 30 minutes last night.  Either way, this is too many points.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* UCLA/Gonzaga Final Four ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +14.5

I was definitely skeptical of UCLA going into the Alabama game and very high on the Crimson Tide -5.5 in that game for one of my few losses of the NCAA Tournament.  But the Bruins impressed me with an outright win in that game, and they went on to upset Michigan as 6.5-point dogs.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  They certainly aren't getting respect here as 14.5-point dogs to Gonzaga.

UCLA is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament with four outright upsets as underdogs.  They just feel like they can't lose at this point with that 14-point comeback against Michigan State in the play-in game.  They showed some great poise after giving up an 11-point halftime lead to Alabama, and with the Crimson Tide hitting a 3-pointer at the buzzer to tie it.  They went on to score 23 points in overtime against one of the best defenses in the country.  Then they led basically the entire way against Michigan.

The Bruins have been playing some tremendous defense in the NCAA Tournament, and they like to slow down the pace, which is what has allowed them to win these games.  It will also allow them to keep this game close against Gonzaga with fewer possessions for both teams.  They held Michigan to 49 points, Alabama to 65 at the end of regulation, Abilene Christian to 47 and BYU to 62.

You certainly aren't getting any discounts on Gonzaga at this point after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four NCAA Tournament games.  But Oklahoma, Creighton and USC all stayed within 19 points of them, and UCLA can certainly stay within 14.5 points.  It's crazy that USC was a 9-point dog to Gonzaga and now UCLA is a 14.5-point dog, a 5.5-point adjustment.  There is recency bias on the Bulldogs right now, but there clearly is no recency bias on the Bruins as nobody believes in this team.  That's just how they like it.

The Bruins are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win.  Gonzaga is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after its opponent was called for 15 or fewer fouls in two consecutive games.  The Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after covering four or five of their last six games against the spread.  Take UCLA Saturday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor -4.5

The Baylor Bears have been the second-best team in the country all season and it really hasn't even been close.  They are 26-2 this season and their only struggles came after a COVID pause for three weeks.  They went 1-7 ATS in their next eight games after the pause and entered the NCAA Tournament undervalued because of it.

After barely failing to cover in a 24-point win over Harford as 25.5-point favorites in their opener, the Bears have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since.  They beat Wisconsin by 13 as 6.5-point favorites, beat Villanova by 11 as 7.5-point favorites and topped Arkansas by 9 as 7.5-point favorites.  I think we are getting them at a huge discount here as only 4.5-point favorites over Houston now in the Final Four.

Houston has had a pretty easy path to the Final 4 unlike Houston.  The Cougars have beaten Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State to get here.  All four of those were double-digit seeds and pulled upsets to get to Houston! This is definitely a step up in class for the Cougars.

It's worth noting that Houston has only played one team that is ranked in the KenPom Top 25 all season and that was Texas Tech (20th).  The Cougars are grossly overvalued due to their 28-3 record this season.  They nearly lost to both Rutgers and Oregon State, but pulled out both games in the closing minutes.  They won't be so fortunate here against the best team they have played all season by a wide margin.

Baylor is just so tough to tame as they average 83.0 points per game and shoot 41.1% from 3-point range as a team.  Their top five scorers all shoot 39.6% or better from 3-point range.  Houston is known for great defense, but they haven't faced an offense near the caliber of Baylor this season.  They will be shell-schocked.

Baylor is 8-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  The Bears are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.  The Bears are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cardinals/Reds OVER 9

There were definitely some offensive fireworks in the opener between the Cardinals and Reds in Game 1.  The Cardinals won 11-6 for 17 combined runs.  It should be more of the same here with the wind expected to be blowing out to left field at 11 MPH and temps in the 60's in Cincinnati today.

The Cardinals have the best lineup in the NL Central with Goldschmidt and Arenado headlining it, and the Reds probably have the second-best lineup in the division.  Adam Wainwright is washed up and has posted a 5.22 ERA in 29 career starts against Cincinnati.  Tyler Mahle is 1-3 with a 5.45 ERA in eight career starts against the Cardinals.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland A's +116

The Oakland A's will be highly motivated for their first victory of the season today.  They have dropped the first two games of this series to the Astros as favorites, and now they come back as underdogs in Game 3 and I think we are getting them at a great value.

Lance McCullers Jr. is the bigger name of these two starters, which is why the Astros are favored, but he has had terrible road numbers in his career.  Opponents have a .262 AVG and .346 OBP against him on the road compared to a 2.07 AVG and .282 OBP at home in his career.  He has allowed 13 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings in four career starts at Oakland for a 5.76 ERA.

Cole Irvin is a promising young prospect for the A's who dominated in spring training this year.  Indeed, Irvin went 1-1 with a 1.00 ERA and 0.722 WHIP in spring training while allowing just 2 earned runs, 13 base runners with 18 K's in 18 innings.  He'll have the advantage of none of these Houston hitters having ever seen him before.

McCullers is 10-21 (-16.4 units) against the money line on the road with a money line of +100 to -150 in his career.  The A's are 50-24 in their last 74 home games.  Oakland is 44-19 in its last 63 games following a loss.  The A's are 4-0 in their last four games after losing the first two games of a series.  Roll with the A's Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rangers/Royals OVER 9.5

The Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals put on a show offensively in their opener.  They combined for 24 runs in a 14-10 victory by the Royals.  It should be more of the same today considering the wind is expected to be blowing at 15 MPH out to straightaway center with temps nearing the 70's in Kansas City as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indians/Tigers UNDER 8.5

Two of the worst lineups in baseball square off again in Game 2 of this series between the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers.  The Tigers won 3-2 in Game 1 for just 5 combined runs.  With the wind expected to be blowing in from right-center at 15 MPH today, expect another pitcher's duel in Detroit this afternoon.

Zach Plesac has owned the Tigers, going 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA and 0.736 WHIP in three career starts against them over the past two seasons.  He has allowed just one earned run in 17 2/3 innings.  Julio Teheran is a veteran starter and a nice addition for the Tigers' rotation this season.  he should shut down the Indians enough to keep this UNDER the number.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Suns UNDER 219.5

The Phoenix Suns are so good this season because they play great defense and slow it down and get good shots on offense.  The Suns rank 23rd in pace this season at 99.1 possessions per game.  Phoenix ranks 6th in defensive efficiency, giving up just 107.2 points per 100 possessions.

Now the Suns take on the struggling Oklahoma City Thunder who are missing five of their top six scorers right now in Gilgeous-Alexander, Horford, Bazley, Dort and Muscala.  Ty Jerome is out tonight and Pokusevski is questionable.

It's no wonder the Thunder rank just 28th in offensive efficiency this season with all of the injuries they have sustained.  However, they have managed to stay more competitive than expected because they do play defense, ranking a solid 13th in defensive efficiency.

The first and only meeting between these teams this season saw just 199 combined points with a 102-97 upset victory by the Thunder.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Phoenix.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Thunder last eight road games.  The UNDER is 50-22-1 in Thunder last 73 games as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Suns last six games playing on one days' rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Bucks/Blazers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 236.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are scary good offensively right now with the return of CJ McCollum (24.2 PPG, 4.7 APG) from injury and the addition of Norman Powell (19.4 PPG) from the Raptors.  These two going with Damian Lillard (29.8 PPG, 7.8 APG) and Carmelo Anthony (14.0 PPG) are going to make them very tough to tame.

The recent results with these guys have been tremendous as the Blazers have scored at least 122 points in three of their last four games overall.  But their additions won't help the Blazers much defensively as they remain one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  They rank 29th in defensive efficiency, giving up 114.5 points per 100 possessions this season.  Only the Kings have been worse.

This game will be a shootout as the Blazers won't be able to get stops against a Milwaukee Bucks team that ranks 5th in offensive efficiency at 114.2 points per 100 possessions this season.  They average 118.9 points per game this season and I see both teams topping 120 points in this one.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 240, 266 and 243 points at the end of regulation in the three OVERS.  The OVER is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 games overall.  The OVER is 7-1 in Bucks last eight games following a win by more than 10 points.  The OVER is 4-0 in Blazers last four games overall.  Portland is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games when revenging a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.