20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-110) 

The Cleveland Indians are in the thick of the wild card race and are still trying to catch the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central.  They have a lot more to play for than the Tigers, who are 29-59 on the season.  The Indians have owned the Tigers this season, going 8-1 against them while winning seven of those meetings by 2 runs or more. 

Adam Plutko has held his own as a starter this season, going 3-1 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.011 WHIP in six starts, including 1-0 with a 3.14 ERA and 0.977 WHIP in his last three.  Plutko is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two career starts against Detroit as well. 

Daniel Norris is 2-8 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in 15 starts this season, 1-4 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.450 WHIP in nine road starts, and 0-3 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in his last three starts overall.  Norris faced Cleveland on June 23rd, allowing 6 runs in 7 innings of a 3-8 loss in his only start against them this season. 

Detroit is 9-30 vs. a team with a winning record this season, losing by 2.5 runs per game on average.  The Tigers are 8-27 vs. a starting pitcher that allows 5.5 or fewer hits per start this season, losing by 3.0 runs per game.  Cleveland is 13-1 vs. AL teams that score 3.9 or fewer runs per game this season, winning by 3.7 runs per game.  The Indians are 4-0 in Plutko’s last four starts.  Cleveland is 9-2 in its last 11 vs. a left-handed starter.  The Tigers are 12-40 in their last 52 games overall.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Monday. 

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Indians -136 

The Cleveland Indians went into the break just 5.5 games back of the Twins in the AL Central.  After losing the first two games of this series, they are now 7.5 games back and in desperate need of a win.  I expect the Indians to be highly motivated in Game 3 today to avoid the sweep. 

Shane Bieber earned an All-Star bid and shined by striking out the side in his lone inning to earn MVP honors.  Bieber is 8-3 with a 3.43 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.656 WHIP in his last three.  He has never lost to the Twins, going 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA in four career starts against them. 

Jose Berrios is 3-16 (-15 units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Twins are 1-4 in Berrios’ last five starts.  Minnesota is 0-4 in its last four Sunday games.  Cleveland is 9-2 in its last 11 games following a loss.  The Indians are 7-0 in Bieber’s last seven starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Bet the Indians Sunday. 

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Padres -115 

The San Diego Padres get the nod today as short home favorites over the Atlanta Braves.  I expect them to bounce back from a Game 1 loss yesterday and to get a win here thanks to their edge on the mound. 

Joey Lucchesi has been dominant at home this season.  Indeed, he is 6-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 10 home starts.  He also has the advantage of having never faced the Braves, so they won’t know what to expect from him. 

Julio Teheran has struggled on the road this season, going 2-4 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.359 WHIP in 11 starts away from home.  He is also 0-1 with a 6.08 ERA and 2.026 WHIP in his last three starts.  Teheran faced the Padres on April 30th earlier this season, allowing 3 homers and 4 runs in 7 innings of a 3-4 defeat. 

The Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  San Diego is 6-1 in Lucchesi’s last seven starts vs. NL East opponents.  The Braves are 1-5 in Teheran’s last six starts when working on 7 or more days’ rest.  Bet the Padres Saturday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -125 

The All-Star Break came at a perfect time for the Colorado Rockies.  They lost six in a row heading into the break to fall to 44-45 on the season.  Still, they are right in the wild card hunt and ready to take advantage of their seven-game home stand coming out of the break. 

Jon Gray is 9-6 with a 3.93 ERA in 18 starts for the Rockies this season, including 4-1 with a 3.37 ERA in seven home starts, which is impressive at Coors Field. 

Jon Gray has never lost to the Reds, going 4-0 with a 4.76 ERA in four career starts against them.  He’ll be up against Sonny Gray, who is 1-3 with a 3.79 ERA in seven road starts this season. 

The Reds are 0-4 in their last four road games.  Cincinnati is 1-5 in Gray’s last six starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockies are 35-17 in their last 52 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Colorado is 4-0 in Gray’s last four home starts.  Bet the Rockies Friday. 

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-125) 

The Washington Nationals have had a tremendous turnaround prior to the All-Star Break to get to 46-42 on the season and back in the NL East race.  They have gone 9-2 in their last 11 games overall with seven of those wins coming by two runs or more. 

Thanks to their edge on the mound here, the Nationals should easily win by 2-plus runs today.  Pat Corbin is 7-5 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in eight home starts. 

The Royals are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall with all eight losses coming by two runs or more.  Jake Junis is 4-8 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.480 WHIP in 18 starts this season for the Royals. 

Kansas City is 21-51 in its last 72 road games.  The Royals are 0-4 in Junis’ last four interleague starts.  Washington is 27-11 in its last 38 games overall.  The Nationals are 4-0 in Corbin’s last four home starts.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Sunday. 

20* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oakland A’s -136 

The Oakland A’s are 6-1 in their last 7 games overall and coming on strong prior to the All-Star Break.  They would love to win these final two games and put themselves in better position to win the AL West or grab a wild card spot.   

Conversely, the Mariners just can’t wait for the break.  They are playing terrible going in with a 1-7 record in their last eight games overall.  I think given the motivation of these two teams, we are getting the A’s at a great value tonight. 

The A’s have the obvious edge on the mound too with Chris Bassitt.  He is 5-3 with a 3.80 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA in seven road starts.  Bassitt has posted a 3.45 ERA in five career starts against the Mariners as well. 

Marco Gonzalez is 9-7 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 4-4 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in nine home starts.  He has been terrible in Seattle, and I see no reason that changes here. 

The Mariners are 1-11 in their last 12 Saturday games.  Seattle is 1-4 in Gonzalez’s last five home starts.  The Mariners are 13-27 in their last 40 home games.  The A’s are 7-1 in their last eight vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Oakland is 18-5 in its last 23 road games.  Bet the A’s Saturday. 

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Milwaukee Brewers -110 

The Milwaukee Brewers come into this series with the Pittsburgh Pirates highly motivated for a victory.  They just lost three straight to the Reds last series and certainly don’t want to lose four in a row. 

Meanwhile, the Pirates are feeling good after taking three of four from the Cubs last series and could suffer a letdown because of it.  Pittsburgh starter Steven Brault is fortunate to have a 3.46 ERA in spite of his 1.590 WHIP across eight starts this season.  He has already walked 19 batters in 39 innings and his lack of control will catch up to him. 

Zach Davies is one of the more underrated starters in baseball.  He is 7-2 with a 3.24 ERA in 17 starts for the Brewers this season, including 3-1 with a 3.02 ERA in nine road starts.  Davies has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts against the Pirates, including 2 runs or less in six of those.  He has posted a 2.41 ERA in those seven starts while yielding just 11 earned runs in 41 innings. 

Milwaukee is 12-1 after batting .200 or worse over a 5-game spend over the last three seasons.  The Brewers are 20-4 off an un upset loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Milwaukee is 26-7 after scoring 4 runs or less in three straight games over the last two years.  Bet the Brewers Friday. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -120 

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing the first three games of this series to the Pittsburgh Pirates.  I expect them to take Game 4 Thursday and avoid the sweep. 

Jose Quintana is coming off a great start in which he pitched six shutout innings at Cincinnati in a 6-0 victory.  Quintana owns the Pirates, going 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in six career starts against them.  He shut them out in 7 innings with 11 K’s in a 2-0 victory over them in his only start against them in 2019. 

Jordan Lyles is having a solid season overall, but he has struggled of late.  Lyles is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has given up three homers, 10 earned runs and 25 base runners in 15 innings during this stretch. 

Lyles is 0-14 in July games in his career, and his teams are losing by 3.8 runs per game in this spot.  The Cubs are 36-17 in their last 54 during Game 4 of a series.  The Pirates are 0-4 in Lyles’ last four starts.  Bet the Cubs Thursday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -123 

The San Diego Padres come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the San Francisco Giants and want to avoid the sweep with a win in Game 3 tonight. 

I think that motivation will certainly help them overcome what appears to be a disadvantage on the mound with Cal Quantrill against Shaun Anderson.  Quantrill has never faced the Giants, which gives him the edge in that matchup.  The Padres just saw Anderson on June 12th. 

San Francisco is 4-20 off four or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  The Giants are 16-35 in their last 51 during Game 3 of a series.  The Padres are 4-1 in their last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  San Diego also wants revenge from four straight losses to the Giants overall.  Take the Padres Wednesday. 

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Oakland A’s +103 

The Oakland A’s should not be home underdogs to the Minnesota Twins tonight.  They are playing their best baseball of the season, going 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.  The Twins are just 1-4 in their last five games. 

The A’s have a big edge on the mound tonight over the Twins. Mike Fiers is 5-1 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.886 WHIP in eight home starts this season.  He is 2-0 with a 0.93 ERA in his last three starts.  Fiers owns the Twins, going 6-1 (9-1 money line) with a 2.91 ERA in 10 career starts against them. 

Kyle Gibson is no match for Fiers.  He is 8-4 with a 4.26 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 4.68 ERA in eight road starts.  He is also 2-2 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.657 WHIP in four career starts against the A’s. 

Fiers is 11-0 vs. poor base running teams that average 0.5 or fewer stolen bases per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Oakland is 46-12 in its last 58 vs. AL Central opponents, including 9-1 this season.  The A’s are 5-0 in Fiers’ last five starts.  Oakland is 35-17 in its last 52 meetings with Minnesota.  Bet the A’s Wednesday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -130 

The Houston Astros should be much bigger favorites over the Colorado Rockies tonight considering they have the edge on the mound, at the plate and in the bullpen in this one. 

Wade Miley has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season.  He is 6-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 17 starts this season, and the Astros have gone 11-6 (+5 units) in those 17 starts.  Miley owns the Rockies, going 7-2 with a 3.81 ERA in 14 career starts against them. 

Peter Lambert has had a rough start to his rookie season for the Rockies.  Indeed, he is 2-0 in spite of a 6.57 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in five starts this season.  He is 1-0 with a 9.94 ERA and 1.815 WHIP in three home starts, and 0-0 with an 11.37 ERA and 2.052 WHIP in his last three starts overall. 

Miley is 10-0 as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  Houston is 24-4 in road games off a win by 2 runs or less over the last two seasons.  The Astros are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Astros Wednesday. 

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -136 

The Texas Rangers have been one of the most underrated teams in baseball this season.  They are 28-15 (+17.8 units) at home this year while scoring 5.7 runs per game in Arlington. 

Speaking of underrated, ace Mike Minor gets the ball tonight for the Rangers.  He is putting up Cy Young-like numbers at 8-4 with a 2.40 ERA in 17 starts, including 4-2 with a 2.02 ERA in eight home starts. 

Not to mention, Minor has never lost to the Angels, going 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA in five career starts against them.  He has faced them twice in 2019, allowing just one earned run in 15 innings.  He’ll be opposed by Jose Suarez, who is 2-1 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in four starts for the Angels this season. 

Texas is 6-0 in home games after scoring two runs or less this season.  Los Angeles is 14-38 in its last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 5-0 in Minor’s last five starts.  Texas is 7-1 in its last eight home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Rangers Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +100 

I like the Reds to bounce back from a tough loss to the Brewers in Game 1 of this series yesterday.  They blew a two-run lead late and lost 8-6.  The Brewers used their setup man and closer and will be short on bullpen arms tonight. 

That’s not good news for them considering starter Chase Anderson is only averaging 4.7 innings per start in his 10 starts this season.  He is 3-2 with a 4.40 ERA in those 10 starts, including 1-1 with a 6.26 ERA in his last three.  Anderson is 0-2 with a 9.34 ERA in his last two starts against the Reds, giving up 9 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. 

Tanner Roark is the better starter in this matchup.  He is 5-6 with a 3.36 ERA in 16 starts this season, including 1.1 with a 1.96 ERA in his last three.  Roark owns the Brewers, going 5-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in nine career starts against them. 

The Reds are 6-2 in their last eight home games.  The Brewers are 0-6 in their last six Tuesday games.  Cincinnati wants revenge after losing six straight home meetings with the Brewers.  Take the Reds Tuesday. 

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-131) 

Instead of laying -280 on the Rays today, I’ll gladly pay half price and back them on the Run Line at around -130 to win by two runs or more.  They are facing the hapless Orioles, who are 24-59 on the season. 

Charlie Morton is putting up Cy Young-like numbers this season for the Rays and he’ll get the ball tonight.  Morton is 8-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in 17 starts this season with 120 K’s in 100 innings.  He has pitched 9 shutout innings for a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Orioles. 

The Orioles are 10-47 in their last 57 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rays are 15-3 in their last 18 home meetings with Baltimore.  Tampa Bay is 8-2 in its last 10 meetings with the Orioles.  Roll with the Rays on the Run Line Tuesday. 

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -138 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a huge edge on the mound today with Zack Greinke over Drew Pomeranz.  They should be much bigger favorites as a result. 

Greinke is 8-3 with a 3.08 ERA and 0.954 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.873 WHIP in nine road starts.  Greinke owns the Giants, going 12-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 19 career starts against them. 

Pomeranz is 2-8 with a 6.79 ERA and 1.748 WHIP in 14 starts this season for the Giants.  He has never beaten the Diamondbacks, going 0-4 with a 9.10 ERA and 2.093 WHIP in seven career starts against them. 

Greinke’s teams are 31-6 vs. NL teams that score 4 or less runs per game in the second half of the season in his career.  The Diamondbacks are 7-0 in Greinke’s last seven Saturday starts.  Arizona is 34-13 in Greinke’s last 47 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday. 

20* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona Diamondbacks -105 

The Arizona Diamondbacks get the nod Friday at basically even money against the San Francisco Giants.  The Diamondbacks are playing well having won four of their last five.  They have been one of the best road teams in baseball at 25-19 on the season as well. 

Arizona goes with the underrated Merrill Kelly tonight.  He is 7-7 with a 3.93 ERA in 16 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 3.20 ERA in his last three. Kelly is also 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in two career starts against San Francisco. 

Shaun Anderson is 2-2 with a 3.94 ERA in eight starts this season for the Giants, including 1-1 with a 4.29 ERA in four home starts.  Anderson is also 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona. 

The Diamondbacks are 7-0 in road games vs. teams who are outscored by one or more runs per game this season.  Arizona is 4-0 in Kelly’s last four starts on four days’ rest.  San Francisco is 17-45 in its last 62 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Diamondbacks Friday. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -102 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a big edge on the mound today with Alex Young over Tyler Beede.  They also have the edge at the plate as they score 5.2 runs per game, indulging 5.8 per game on the road.  The Giants score 3.9 per game and 3.2 per game at home. 

Arizona left-hander Alex Young will be making his major league debut for the Diamondbacks today.  I always like taking left-handers who are making their debuts because they are so difficult to hit. 

But this play is more about a fade of Tyler Beede than anything.  He is 1-1 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has faced Arizona twice in his career, going 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 2.125 WHIP in those two outings. 

The Diamondbacks are 7-3 in their last 10 road games.  Arizona is 6-1 in its last seven after allowing two runs or less in their previous game.  The Giants are 1-4 in their last five vs. a left-handed starter.  Arizona is 4-0 in its last four trips to San Francisco.  Bet the Diamondbacks Thursday. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -102 

The Texas Rangers have been flying under the radar all season.  They have now won three straight to get to 43-36 on the season and right in the wild card race. 

Speaking of underrated, Texas starter Mike Minor has been putting up Cy Young numbers this season.  He is 7-4 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 16 starts with 103 K’s in 103 2/3 innings. 

Matt Boyd got off to a great start this season, but he has struggled of late and come back down to reality.  Boyd is 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is also 1-5 with a 6.54 ERA and 1.484 WHP in six career starts against Texas. 

The Tigers are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall to drop to 26-48 on the season.  The Rangers are 4-0 in Minor’s last four starts.  Texas is 6-1 in its lsat seven vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Tigers are 0-4 in Boyd’s last four starts.  Detroit is 0-5 in Boyd’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Rangers Wednesday. 

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-125) 

Gerrit Cole finally gets a chance to face his former team in the Pittsburgh Pirates.  It’s safe to say emotions will be high for him tonight as Cole is already an emotional guy as it is.  He will be motivated to beat his former team. 

Not to mention, the Astros have lost seven of their last eight, so they return home motivated as a team also.  Cole is 6-5 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 16 starts this season with 148 K’s in 96 2/3 innings. 

Trevor Williams gets the start for the Pirates.  He is 2-1 with a 4.12 ERA in 10 starts this season.  However, Williams recently returned from a one-month absence due to injury and gave up 7 earned runs in 5 innings on June 19th to the lowly Detroit Tigers.  I can’t imagine he’ll fare well against a much better Houston lineup here. 

The Pirates are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.  Pittsburgh is 1-7 in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  Houston is 11-1 in Cole’s last 12 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Astros are 8-2 in Cole’s last 10 starts overall.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Tuesday. 

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -125

The Philadelphia Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory today against the New York Mets.  They were just just swept by the lowly Miami Marlins and have now lost seven straight overall. 

The Phillies have a big advantage on the mound today behind Zach Eflin.  He is 6-7 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.992 WHIP in six home starts. 

Steven Matz is 5-5 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.371 WHIP in 14 starts for the Mets.  He has been terrible on the road, going 2-5 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in eight road starts.  Matz is 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in seven career starts against the Phillies. 

The Mets are 0-6 in their last six during Game 1 of a series.  New York is 1-5 with Katz’s last six road starts.  The Phillies are 28-11 in their last 39 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Philadelphia is 5-0 in Efflin’s last five home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mets are 1-4 in Matz’s last five starts against Philadelphia.  Bet the Phillies Monday. 

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Orioles/Mariners OVER 9 

The Mariners are 54-22 to the OVER this season, including 26-11 in home games.  It’s the gift that keeps on giving, and it has the past two games in this series as the Orioles and Mariners combined for 19 runs Friday and 12 runs Saturday.  And now we’re once again seeing a total of only 9 here. 

This total should be much higher considering these starting pitchers and these bullpens.  Both bullpens are atrocious as the Orioles have a 6.34 ERA on the season, while the Mariners have a 5.32 ERA.  Both offenses are respectable, especially Seattle, which puts up 5.4 runs per game against right-handed starters. 

Gabriel Ynoa is 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA in five starts for the Orioles this Eason, including 0-1 with a 7.15 ERA in two road starts.  Yusei Kikuchi is 3-5 with a 5.15 ERA in 16 starts, 1-3 with a 5.67 ERA in seven home starts, and 0-2 with an 8.78 ERA in his last three starts. 

Seattle is 9-1 OVER vs. a terrible bullpen with an ERA of 5.20 or worse this season.  The Mariners are 16-2 OVER after winning two of its last three games this season.  Kikuchi is 13-2-1 to the OVER in all starts this season.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in Kikuchi’s last seven home starts.  The OVER is 8-2-1 in Orioles last 11 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -142 

It’s safe to say the Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday.  They have lost six straight overall, including the first two games of this series to the Giants.  They desperately want to end this skid and avoid the sweep today at home. 

The Diamondbacks have a big edge on the mound today with Merrill Kelly, who is 7-7 with a 3.99 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 3.05 ERA in seven home starts.  Kelly pitched 5 1/3 shutout innings in a 7-0 home victory over the Giants on May 17th in his only career start against them. 

Shaun Anderson is 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.386 WHIP in seven starts for the Giants this season.  One of those starts came against Arizona on May 26th in which he allowed 6 runs, 4 earned, and 10 base runners in 5 innings of a 2-6 defeat. 

San Francisco is 0-11 off five or more consecutive ‘overs’ over the last three seasons.  The Giants are 10-28 in their last 38 during Game 3 of a series.  The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last six during Game 3 of a series.  Roll with the Diamondbacks Sunday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +100 

After losing two straight to the Mets, including an embarrassing 10-2 loss yesterday, the Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to split this series.  And we are getting them at an unbelievable value here as home underdogs. 

Jacob DeGrom has been priced like the Cy Young winner he was last season.  But he hasn’t been nearly as sharp this season at 4-6 with a 3.26 ERA in 15 starts, and as a result he’s one of the biggest money losers in the league as his team is 5-10 (-11 units) in games he starts this year. 

Cole Hamels, conversely, has been one of the most underrated starters in the game.  He is 6-2 with a 2.85 ERA in 15 starts this season, 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA in seven home starts, and 2-0 with a 0.41 ERA in his last three starts while allowing just one earned run in 22 innings with 27 K’s. 

Hamels owns the Mets, going 2-0 with a 0.88 ERA in his last six starts against them while allowing just 4 earned runs in 41 innings.  The Mets are 0-6 in DeGrom’s last six Sunday starts.  New York is 1-5 in DeGrom’s last six road starts.  Chicago is 46-17 in its last 63 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Cubs Sunday. 

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas Rangers -1.5 (+100) 

The Texas Rangers have been a great bet at home this season.  They are 26-15 (+15.8 units) in Arlington this year.  I fully expect them to bounce back from a rare loss to the White Sox by a final of 5-4 in Game 1 of this series yesterday. 

The Rangers have a huge edge on the mound today.  Lance Lynn is 8-4 with a 4.16 ERA in 15 starts this season with 102 K’s in 93 innings.  He is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts as well.  Lynn owns the White Sox, going 3-1 with a 2.49 ERA in seven career starts against them. 

Odrisamer Despaigne is no more than a fill-in starter for the White Sox.  He has never had any success in his career, and he hasn’t this season, either.  Despaigne is 0-2 with an 8.71 ERA and 2.130 WHIP in two starts this season.  He is also 0-1 with an 11.25 ERA in one career start against the Rangers. 

Texas is 12-3 in home games off a loss this season.  The Rangers are 6-1 in Lynn’s last seven home starts.  The White Sox are 24-61 in their last 85 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Rangers on the Run Line Saturday. 

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Orioles/Mariners OVER 8.5 

The Mariners are 53-22 to the OVER this season, including 25-11 in home games.  It’s the gift that keeps on giving, and it did once again last night as the Mariners beat the Orioles 10-9.  And now we have another low total here of just 8.5 to 9 runs depending on where you shop, and there’s definitely some value with the OVER. 

Both bullpens are putrid.  The Orioles’ bullpen has a 6.34 ERA this season, while the Marines’ bullpen has a 5.24 ERA.  And it’s not like Andrew Cashner or Tom Milone have been going deep into games.  Cashner averages 5.5 innings per start, while Milone only averages 5.0 innings per start. 

The OVER is 6-1 in Cashner’s last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 5-0 in Cashner’s last five starts on four days’ rest.  The OVER is 7-2-1 in Orioles last 10 games overall.  The OVER is 20-4-3 in Mariners last 27 games following a win.  The OVER is 8-1-1 in Mariners last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday. 

20* MLB Saturday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Cubs -126 

We’re getting the Chicago Cubs cheap at home today.  We’ll gladly take advantage and back them to bounce back from a tough one-run loss to the Mets yesterday. 

Jose Quintana has been lights out at home this season for the Cubs, going 3-3 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in seven starts at Wrigley Field.  Quintana owns the Mets, going 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three career starts against them. 

Zack Wheeler is 5-5 with a 4.94 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 2-4 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.520 WHIP in eight road starts.  Wheeler hasn’t fared well against the Cubs, going 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.428 WHIP in four career starts against them. 

The Mets are 1-12 in road games vs. a starter that allowed 1.75 or fewer walks per start this season.  New York is 7-21 in its last 28 road games.  The Mets are 1-5 in Wheeler’s last six road starts.  The Cubs are 46-16 in their last 62 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Cubs Saturday. 

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks -125 

I like the spot for the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight.  They have lost four straight coming in, so they’ll be highly motivated for a victory.  And they get to stay at home, while the Giants have to travel after a four-game series in Los Angeles against the hated Dodgers.  They’ll still be hung over from a tough 8-9 loss last night. 

Taylor Clark is 1-0 with a 4.27 ERA in one career start against San Francisco, which came on May 25th as he allowed 3 runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 10-4 victory.  Jeff Samardzija is 3-5 with a 4.20 ERA in 13 career starts against the Diamondbacks, and his teams are 4-9 in those starts.  Samardzija is also 2-3 with a 4.80 ERA in seven road starts this year. 

Samardzija is 0-9 in road games vs. NL teams that score 5 or more runs per game over the last three seasons.  The Giants are losing by 3.5 runs per game in this spot.  The Giants are 1-5 in their last six road games.  The Diamondbacks are 7-2 in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  San Francisco is 0-4 in Samardzija’s last four starts at Arizona.  Bet the Diamondbacks Friday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Angels -108 

The Los Angeles Angels are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now.  They are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in eight of those contests, so they really have their bats going.  They should stay hot at the plate tonight. 

Michael Wacha has struggled all season for the Cardinals.  He is 4-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.658 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 1-1 with an 8.23 ERA and 2.033 WHP In four home starts.  I don’t expect him to fare too well tonight against the hot Angels. 

Los Angeles counters with Griffin Canning, who has arguably been their best starter this season.  He is 2-3 with a 3.93 ERA and 0.993 WHIP with 54 K’s in 50 1/3 innings.  The rookie has been sensational thus far and will have a big advantage facing the Cardinals for the first time. 

Wacha is 2-8 (-11.5 units) in interleague home games in his career.  The Angels are 6-0 in their last six interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Angels Friday. 

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +149 

It’s rare that you’ll get the opportunity to back the Houston Astros as an underdog, let alone as a dog of around +150.  We’ll take advantage today and back the highly motivated Astros, who are looking to bounce back from a season-high, five-game losing streak. 

I would argue the Astros actually have the better starter going tonight when you look at the numbers.  Brad Peacock is 5-4 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 13 starts this season, and the Astros are 9-4 in his starts. 

James Paxton is 4-3 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.309 WHIP in 11 starts for the Yankees, including 1-1 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.874 WHIP in his last three starts, averaging just 4.4 innings per start.  He may have returned from injury too early.  Paxton gave up 5 runs and 11 base runners in 4 innings to the Astros in his only start against them this season on April 10th. 

Houston is 34-10 in road games vs. left-handed starters over the last two seasons.  Paxton and the Yankees are getting way too much respect here due to their six-game winning streak.  Take the Astros Friday. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -126 

The Milwaukee Brewers have now lost three straight and five of six and should be highly motivated for a victory as a result.  The Cincinnati Reds just swept the Houston Astros at home, making this a clear letdown spot for them. 

Jimmy Nelson has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts against the Reds.  He is off to a slow start in two outings this season, which is why he is getting zero respect from oddsmakers here.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on him Thursday. 

Tanner Roark is 4-6 with a. 3.63 ERA and 1.386 WHIP in 14 starts this season for Cincinnati, including 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts.  Roark has allowed 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 15 base runners in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Brewers for a 6.10 ERA. 

The Reds are 4-19 in road games after allowing 4 runs or less in four straight games over the last three seasons.  Roark is 2-12 (-13.4 units) in June games over the last three years.  Milwaukee is 14-2 in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  The Reds are 1-5 in Roark’s last six starts.  The Brewers are 7-2 in Nelson’s last nine home starts.  Bet the Brewers Thursday. 

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Brewers -109 

The Milwaukee Brewers have lost the first two games of this series to the San Diego Padres and four of five overall.  They will come in highly motivated for a victory here in Game 3 to avoid the sweep Wednesday afternoon. 

The Brewers should be able to grab a win here thanks to their huge edge on the mound.  Zach Davies is 7-1 with a 2.60 ERA in 14 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in eight road starts.  Davies has never lost to the Padres, going 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in four career starts against them. 

Matt Strahm is now 2-6 with a 4.67 ERA in 12 starts for the Padres this season, including 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA in five home starts. Strahm is really scuffling of late, going 0-3 with a 10.54 ERA and 1.830 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 13 2/3 innings. 

The Brewers are 4-0 in their last four games after losing the first two games of a series.  Milwaukee is 25-9 in its last 34 during Game 3 of a series.  The Brewers are 4-0 in Davies’ last four starts during Game 3 of a series.  The Padres are 0-6 in their last six during Game 3 of a series.  San Diego is 1-4 in Strahm’s last five starts.  Bet the Brewers Wednesday. 

15* Rays/Yankees AL Early ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay -110 

The Tampa Bay Rays have lost the first two games of this series and now trail the New York Yankees by 2.5 games in the AL East.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday to avoid the sweep and close the gap. 

The Rays certainly have the edge on the mound today with ace Blake Snell, who won the Cy Young last year.  Snell is 4-5 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in 14 starts this season with 101 K’s in 75 1/3 innings.  Snell has fared very well against the Yankees of late, going 1-1 with a 1.62 ERA in his last three starts against them while allowing 3 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings with 27 K’s. 

C.C. Sabathia is on his last leg. He is 4-4 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Sabathia has really struggled of late, going 0-3 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.787 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 28 base runners in 15 2/3 innings. 

The Rays are 9-2 in Snell’s last 11 starts vs. AL East opponents.  Tampa Bay is 32-15 in its last 47 road games.  The Yankees are 1-4 in their last five vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the Rays Wednesday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-115) 

The Houston Astros have lost the first two games of this series to the Cincinnati Reds by one run each.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory here in Game 3 Wednesday morning to avoid the sweep.  I expect them to want it more than the Reds, who are content with having already won the series. 

The Astros also have a massive edge on the mound today with Gerrit Cole, who is 6-5 with a 3.67 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in 15 starts this season with 140 Ka’s in 90 2/3 innings.  He’ll be opposed by Tyler Mahle, who is 2-7 with a 4.46 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.65 ERA in his last three.  Jose Altuve returns to the lineup to give the Astros a boost today. 

Cole is 12-1 in June road games in his career, and his teams are winning by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  The Astros are 76-36 in their last 112 road games.  Houston is 16-3 in Cole’s last 19 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Astros are 6-1 in Cole’s last seven interleague starts.  The Reds are 1-8 in Mahle’s last nine starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Astros on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland A’s -1.5 (-113) 

The Baltimore Orioles are the worst team in baseball at 21-51 on the season.  They have lost six straight coming in with five of those losses coming by two runs or more.  I’ll gladly fade them here on the run line against the Oakland A’s Tuesday night. 

Brett Anderson is having a solid season for the A’s.  He is 6-4 with a 3.89 ERA in 14 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA in six home starts.  He faced Baltimore on April 9th earlier this season and yielded just two runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 13-2 victory. 

Gabriel Ynoa is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in four starts for the Orioles this season.  He is averaging just 5.0 innings per start and has already allowed five homers in 20 innings.  He won’t last long, and the A’s will get into the Orioles’ putrid bullpen (6.02 ERA) early. 

The Orioles are 15-57 as a dog of +175 to +250 over the last two seasons, losing by 2.6 runs per game.  The Orioles are 0-4 in Ynoa’s last four road starts.  The A’s are 13-3 in Anderson’s last 16 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the A’s on the Run Line Tuesday. 

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -149 

The Atlanta Braves are currently playing their best baseball of the season.  They are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall and are coming off a 15-1 victory over the Phillies.  They have now scored at least 5 runs in eight consecutive games as their offense has really kicked it into high gear. 

Now the Braves send ace Mike Soroka to the mound tonight.  Soroka has been nothing short of spectacular, going 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA and 0.967 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He is also 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA and 0.649 WHIP in two career starts against the Mets, both of which came last season. 

Zack Wheeler is 5-4 with a 4.87 ERA in 14 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 5.48 ERA in seven road starts.  He’s no match for Soroka.  The Mets’ bullpen has a 5.25 ERA this season and has to be taxed after getting overused against the Cardinals last series in a four-game set. 

Atlanta is 13-3 after scoring 8 runs or more this season.  The Mets are 6-20 in their last 26 road games.  New York is 1-4 in Wheeler’s last five starts.  The Braves are 9-0 in Soroka’s last nine starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Atlanta should be closer to a -200 favorite today.  Bet the Braves Monday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -127 

The Tampa Bay Rays have hit a rare rough patch.  They have lost four of their last five coming in.  They should be highly motivated for a victory at home here against the Los Angeles Angels, and because of their recent struggles we are getting them cheap. 

Ryan Stanek has been a great opener for the Rays this season.  He has posted a 1.78 ERA and 0.956 WHIP in 30 1/3 innings pitched, including a 0.56 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in 16 innings at home.  The Rays have won seven of his 10 home starts this season. 

Griffin Canning is certainly a talented youngster for the Angels at 2-2 with a 3.65 ERA in eight starts this season. But now teams have some tape on him, and he has struggled in his last two starts, giving up 7 earned runs in 12 innings for a 5.25 ERA. 

The Angels are 15-38 in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Rays are 45-20 in their last 65 vs. a team with a losing record.  Tampa Bay is 13-4 in its last 17 Sunday games.  The Rays are 12-3 in Stanek’s last 15 home starts.  Bet the Rays Sunday. 

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Mets -131 

The New York Mets have lost the first two games of this series to the St. Louis Cardinals.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 here Saturday. 

Now the Mets send one of their aces in Noah Syndergaard to the mound to get the job done.  He is 4-4 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.202 WHIP in 14 starts this season, 3-2 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in seven home starts, and 1-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in his last three starts overall. 

Michael Wacha is having a rough season for the Cardinals.  He is 4-2 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.632 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He has already walked 31 batters in 52 2/3 innings while allowing nine homers as well.  He lacks velocity on his fastball, so he certainly shouldn’t be walking hitters with his weak arsenal. 

The Cardinals are 0-7 in road games off a win by 4 runs or more this season.  St. Louis is 2-8 in its last 10 during Game 3 of a series.  The Cardinals are 3-10 in Wacha’s last 13 starts during Game 3 of a series.  The Mets are 11-3 in their last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Mets Saturday. 

20* Raptors/Warriors Game 6 No-Brainer on Toronto +3 

The Toronto Raptors are now 5-2 against the Warriors this season.  Even in their two losses they had a chance to win, losing by a combined 6 points.  And they’ve been unstoppable at Oracle in Golden State. 

Indeed, the Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at Golden State this season with wins by 20, 14 and 13 points.  They have actually played their best basketball on the road in this series.  And now without Kevin Durant, the Warriors don’t stand much of a chance of slowing them down. 

In Game 5, the Warriors got a 3-for-3 from 3-point shooting effort from Durant before he left with injury.  His points proved to be the difference in the game in a 106-105 win.  In fact, the Warriors made 20 3-pointers compared to just 8 for the Raptors, outscoring them by 36 points from the 3-point line.  Yet they still only won by one.  The discrepancy in 3-point shooting won’t be near that big in Game 6, and as as result the Raptors should roll again. 

The Raptors are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Toronto is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Golden State.  Bet the Raptors in Game 6 Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -119 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are certainly feeling good right now heading into this series with the Washington Nationals.  They are 6-1 in their last seven games overall despite playing six of those games on the road.  They improved to 22-17 on the road this season, where they are scoring 5.8 runs per game. 

Arizona ace Zack Greinke gets the ball tonight.  Greinke is 7-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.935 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  Greinke owns the Nationals, going 5-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.912 WHIP in eight career starts against them. 

Erick Fedde is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  He is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.300 WHIP in four starts this season, but those four starts have come against the Marlins, Padres, Reds and Mets, four of the worst lineups in the NL.  He is averaging just 5.0 innings per start, which is bad news for a Nationals bullpen with a 6.33 ERA on the season. 

The Diamondbacks are 33-13 in Greinke’s last 46 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nationals are 1-11 in their last 12 games following an off day.  Washington is 1-8 in Fedde’s last nine home starts.  The Nationals are 0-5 in Fedde’s last five home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Diamondbacks Thursday. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -139 

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a win today against the Colorado Rockies.  They have lost the first two games of this series and certainly don’t want to get swept.  Expect them to handle their business here thanks to having a big edge on the mound. 

Cole Hamels has been great in a Cubs uniform.  He is 5-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.198 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 1-2 with with a 2.84 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts.  Hamels is 1-1 with a 2.11 ERA in his last three starts against the Rockies as well. 

Antonio Senzatela is 5-4 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in five home starts.  Senzatela is also 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in two career starts against the Cubs. 

Chicago is 22-8 when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.  The Cubs are 41-14 when the total is 10 or higher over the last three years.  Hamels is 12-3 after giving up one or fewer earned runs in his last outing over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are 6-0 in Hamels’ last six starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  Bet the Cubs Wednesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +118 

The Colorado Rockies should not be home underdogs to the Chicago Cubs today.  The Cubs are getting a lot of respect here, but the Rockies want some revenge after losing two out of three in Chicago early last week.  They’re off to a good start with a 6-5 victory in Game 1 Monday. 

Peter Lambert is one of the top prospects for the Rockies.  He was brilliant last Thursday in his major league debut against the Cubs, striking out nine and allowing just one earned run and five base runners in seven innings of a 3-1 victory. 

Jose Quintana has been great at home but terrible on the road this season for the Cubs.  He is 1-2 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.378 WHIP in five road starts this season, averaging just 4.9 innings per start.  Quintana has posted a 4.32 ERA in four career starts against the Rockies. 

The Cubs are 0-6 in their last six road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Chicago is 1-5 in Quintana’s last six starts overall.  The Rockies are 5-0 in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Colorado is 51-25 in its last 76 home games overall.  Roll with the Rockies Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -116 

It’s rare that you get the opportunity to back the Houston Astros as this small of a home favorite.  We’ll take advantage Tuesday as they open a series with the Milwaukee Brewers in interleague play. 

Brad Peacock isn’t as known as many of the Astros’ other starters, but he has been almost every bit as effective.  Peacock is 4-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.094 WHIP In 11 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in six home starts. 

Freddy Peralta is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He is 2-1 with a. 6.25 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in seven starts this season while averaging just 4.5 innings per start.  He is likely to get rocked by the Astros today. 

Peacock is 15-3 (+11.2 units) as a favorite of -100 to -150 over the last three seasons.  The Brewers are 26-54 in their last 80 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter, and 1-7 in their last eight interleague road games overall.  The Astros are 43-17 in their last 60 games overall.  Houston is 5-0 in Peacock’s last five interleague starts.  Take the Astros Tuesday. 

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Indians -120 

We’re getting Trevor Bauer and the Indians at a discount at home today against the Cincinnati Reds.  It’s because Luis Castillo has overachieved for the Reds, while Bauer has underachieved thus far for the Indians. 

Bauer is 4-6 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  But with a WHIP that low and 103 K’s in 91 2/3 innings, it’s clear his stuff is still there.  And Bauer has posted a 3.54 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in five career starts against Cincinnati. 

Castillo is 6-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.097 WHIP in 13 starts this season for the Reds.  While impressive, he has come back down to reality here of late, going 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has walked 11 batters in 14 innings during this stretch while averaging just 4.7 innings per start. 

Cincinnati is 6-22 after allowing 4 runs or less in four straight games over the last three seasons.  The Reds are 14-39 in their last 53 interleague road games.  Cincinnati is 0-8 in its last eight vs. AL Central opponents.  The Indians are 4-0 in their last four games following an off day.  Cleveland is 17-4 in its last 21 home meetings with Cincinnati.  Bet the Indians Tuesday. 

20* Warriors/Raptors Game 5 No-Brainer on Toronto -1.5 

The Warriors are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here in Game 5.  They are only 1.5-point road underdogs to the Raptors.  A lot of that has to do with he speculation that Kevin Durant may return, but even if he does he won’t be 100% and will be on a minutes restriction. 

The Raptors continue to get no love from oddsmakers despite saving their best basketball of the season for last.  They are now 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall against the Bucks and Warriors.  That’s no small feat.  The only game they lost they lost by 5 to the Warriors and shot just 37.2% from the field. 

It will be the best atmosphere ever for a Toronto home game tonight.  Canada wants their first ever NBA title, and fans will be raucous.  The Raptors are 41-12 at home this season and have some of the best fans in the business.  They also have the current best player in the NBA in Kawhi Leonard, who continues to make all the right decisions. 

The Raptors are 5-1 SU in all meetings with the Warriors this season.  The Warriors just aren’t getting much help outside Curry and Thompson in this series, and the injuries and their lack of depth has really caught up to them. I believe this series ends tonight in Toronto.  Bet the Raptors Monday. 

15* Cubs/Rockies NL ANNIHILATOR on Colorado -125 

The Chicago Cubs are in a massive letdown spot here Monday.  They just completed a sweep of the hated rival Cardinals over the weekend on ESPN’s Sunday night baseball last night.  They will take Game 1 of this series with the Rockies off mentally now. 

The Rockies want revenge on the Cubs after losing two of three to them early last week from June 4-6.  German Marquez lost his matchup with Yu Darvish, but he is the better starter here and will be out to prove it.  Marquez is 6-3 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 14 starts this season. 

Darvish is 2-3 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.523 WHIP in 13 starts this season for the Cubs.  He has been horrible ever since the Cubs signed him last season.  Darvish has never beaten the Rockies, going 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA and 1.715 WHIP in four career starts against them. 

The Cubs are 1-6 in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Chicago is 0-5 in its last five road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Rockies are 13-3 in their last 16 home games.  Colorado is 6-0 in Marquez’s last six home starts.  Take the Rockies Monday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -124 

The Cleveland Indians are coming on strong having won four of their last five.  They are showing excellent value as a small home favorite here again Sunday against the New York Yankees. 

Shane Bieber is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 5-2 with a 3.54 ERA in 12 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.91 ERA in seven home starts.  He is also 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA in one career starts against the Yankees. 

Chad Green is 0-0 with a 7.36 ERA in three starts for the Yankees this season.  He is also 0-1 with a 14.55 ERA in one career starts against the Indians. 

The Yankees are 1-5 in their last six games overall.  The Indians are 6-0 in Bieber’s last six starts vs. AL East opponents.  Cleveland is 5-0 in Bieber’s last five home starts.  Bet the Indians Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -118 

The New York Mets will be motivated to bounce back from a Game 1 loss to the Rockies.  It got chippy last night, and that should have the Mets even more motivated here.  I certainly believe they have the edge on the mound in this one. 

Steven Matz is 4-4 with a 3.97 ERA in 11 starts this season.  He has been lights out at home, going 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four home starts.  In his only career home start against Colorado, Matz gave up just one earned run in 6 innings for a 1.50 ERA. 

Jon Gray is 5-4 with a 4.11 ERA in 12 starts for the Rockies, including 3-3 with a 4.89 ERA in seven road starts.  Gray certainly doesn’t enjoy facing the Mets, going 1-1 with a 9.72 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in four career starts against them. 

The Rockies are 2-9 in their last 11 Saturday games.  The Mets are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  New York is 6-0 in Matz’s last six home starts.  The Mets are 11-2 in Matz’s last 13 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  Bet the Mets Saturday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-130) 

No team is hotter than the Los Angeles Dodgers right now.  They are 28-9 in their last 37 games overall.  They are actually coming off a loss, and they are 9-0 in their last nine games following a defeat.  They haven’t lost two in a row since April 23-24. 

The Dodgers had yesterday off to rest and get ready for this series with the Giants.  The Giants are just 4-10 in their last 14 games overall.  They played yesterday in New York against the Mets, meaning they had to fly cross country overnight to return back to San Francisco.  They certainly will be fatigued from that flight. 

The Dodgers are 17-0 in Kershaw’s last 17 starts dating back to last season.  Kershaw owns the Giants, going 22-10 with a 1.68 ERA and 0.844 WHIP in 44 career starts against them. 

Drew Pomeranz has been awful this season, going 1-6 with an 8.07 ERA and 1.871 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He has really struggled of late at 0-2 with a 15.57 ERA and 2.768 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 15 earned runs and 24 base runners in 8 2/3 innings. 

The Dodgers are 9-0 after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less this season, winning by 3.9 runs per game.  Los Angeles is 20-4 vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game this season, winning by 2.6 runs per game.  The Dodgers are 42-9 in Kershaw’s last 51 starts vs. NL West opponents.  The Giants are 0-8 in their last eight home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  San Francisco is 0-5 in its last five home games overall.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday. 

15* Raptors/Warriors Game 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 215.5 

The Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors meet for a pivotal Game 4 tonight.  I think with what’s at stake here with the series basically on the line for the Warriors that we will see a great defensive effort from them.  The Raptors bring it defensively every game. 

I also think there’s value on the UNDER here when comparing this line to previous in this series.  It was 212.5 for Game 1, 213 for Game 2 and 209.5 for Game 3.  Now it’s 215.5 for Game 4, the highest of any game thus far.   

The Raptors aren’t likely to shoot as well as they did last game as they shot 52.4% from the floor, 44.7% from 3-point range and 95.2% from the free throw line.  One team has shot lights out in every game thus far.  Expect both teams to struggle offensively now that both teams are more familiar with one another. 

The UNDER is 8-3-1 in Raptors last 12 road games.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-112) 

The New York Yankees should be highly motivated for a victory Thursday against the Toronto Blue Jays.  They have lost three straight now, including the first two games of this series.  They certainly want to avoid the sweep and salvage the series with a victory in Game 3. 

The Yankees have a massive edge on the mound today behind J.A. Happ, who is 5-3 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.107 WHIP in five road starts.  Happ has never lost to the Blue Jays, going 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in three career starts against them. 

Edwin Jackson may be the single-worst starter in baseball.  He is 0-3 with a 13.23 ERA and 2.205 WHIP in four starts this season.  Jackson is 2-7 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.574 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Yankees.  The Blue Jays must be desperate for starting pitching if they have to continue to start him. 

Happ is 11-1 in road games vs. teams that steal 0.5 or fewer bases per game over the last two seasons.  The Yankees are winning by 3.5 runs per game in this spot.  Toronto is 1-13 in home games off an upset win over a division rival over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  Jackson is 2-14 at home with a total of 10 to 10.5 in his career, losing by 3.6 runs per game.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Thursday. 

20* Raptors/Warriors Game 3 No-Brainer on Toronto +5 

The Toronto Raptors had their fourth-worst shooting performance of the entire playoffs in Game 2.  They shot just 35-of-94 (37.2%) from the field, yet they still only lost by 5 points.  Look for them to shoot the ball much better in Game 3 and to prove once again that they are one of the best road teams in the NBA. 

Of course, injuries to the Warriors makes the job a lot easier for the Raptors.  They will still be without Kevin Durant for Game 3, Kevon Looney is out for the playoffs after suffering a shoulder injury in Game 2, and Klay Thompson is questionable tonight with a hamstring injury also suffered in Game 2. 

The Looney injury is getting overlooked.  The trio of Curry, Green and Looney have the best 3-man rating in the entire playoffs at +20.2 compared to only +2.5 without Looney on the floor.  They have a +122.5 offensive rating with Looney compared to a +109.4 rating without him.  Plus, they have the best 3-man defensive combination in the entire playoffs when Curry, Green and Looney are on the floor together. 

The Warriors are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  The Raptors are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  A better shooting performance tonight will have them taking advantage of the Warriors’ injuries and likely winning this game outright, though we’ll take the points for some insurance.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-128) 

The Red Sox should be much bigger favorites on the Run Line today over the lowly Kansas City Royals.  The Royals are just 2-10 in their last 12 games overall to fall to 19-41 on the season. 

Chris Sale isn’t off to his best start, but he still commands more respect than he’s getting.  His stuff is still there clearly as he has 98 K’s in 68 1/3 innings this year with only 19 walks.  Sale is 10-8 with a 2.90 ERA in 23 career starts against Kansas City. 

Jake Junis is no match for Sale.  He is 4-5 with a 535 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six home starts.  He’s backed by a poor bullpen that has a 5.86 ERA in home games this season. 

The Royals are 6-25 in home games off three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, losing by 2.1 runs per game in this spot.  Kansas City is 27-77 in its last 104 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday. 

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-115) 

The Tampa Bay Rays are riding a season-high four-game losing streak.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory today to end this skid, and they should get one against the lowly Detroit Tigers, who are just 23-34 on the season. 

Tampa Bay starter Charlie Morton is a legit Cy Young contender.  He is 6-0 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.099 WHIP in 12 starts this season with 83 K’s in 67 1/3 innings.  Morton is also 4-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 1.069 WHIP in seven road starts. 

While Spencer Turnbull is a quality starter for Detroit, the Rays just have so many other advantages.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game against right-handed starters compared to 3.1 for Detroit.  The Rays have a 3.57 bullpen ERA compared to a 5.24 ERA for Detroit. 

Detroit is 5-20 after scoring 8 runs or more over the last two seasons, losing by 2.0 runs per game in this spot.  The Rays are 27-12 in their last 39 road games.  The Tigers are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Detroit is 1-10 in its last 11 home games overall.  Roll with the Rays on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -135 

The New York Mets return home from a tough seven-game road trip at the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.  Look for them to get back on track at home here where they are 15-9 on the season and scoring 5.1 runs per game. 

Noah Syndergaard hasn’t put up his best numbers this season, but the talent is still there.  And Syndergaard loves facing the Giants, going 3-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.864 WHIP In six career starts against them. 

Madison Bumgarner is 3-5 with a 3.89 ERA in 12 starts for the Giants this season.  He isn’t likely to get much run support here as the Giants are hitting .222 and scoring 3.9 runs per game on the season. 

The Giants are 0-7 in their last seven during Game 1 of a series.  San Francisco is 1-7 in Bumgarner’s last eight starts during Game 1 of a series.  The Giants are 7-19 in Bumgarner’s last 26 road starts.  The Mets are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.  New York is 10-3 in Syndergaard’s last 13 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Mets Tuesday. 

20* Dodgers/Diamondbacks NL West ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +135 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing excellent value tonight as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball and are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now because of it. 

Robbie Ray is probably the best starter the Diamondbacks have, and he gets the ball tonight.  Ray is 4-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 12 starts this season with 82 K’s in 62 2/3 innings.  Ray is 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA in four home starts, and he’s 7-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 17 career starts against Los Angeles. 

Walker Buehler just hasn’t been consistent at all this season for the Dodgers after having an excellent rookie year last season.  He is 5-1 with a 4.03 ERA in 11 starts.  Buehler has also posted a 4.70 ERA in three career starts against the Diamondbacks.  He gave up 5 earned runs in 3 innings on March 31st in his lone start against them in 2019. 

Arizona is a very profitable 36-27 (+17.2 units) as a dog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons.  The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Ray’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Arizona is 5-0 in Ray’s last five starts during Game 1 of a series.  Bet the Diamondbacks Monday. 

20* Warriors/Raptors Game 2 No-Brainer on Toronto -2 

The Toronto Raptors have now won five straight games over the Bucks and Warriors.  This team is proving they are for real and a legit threat to stop Golden State’s three-peat.  They know getting Game 2 here is a must with Kevin Durant likely coming back soon. 

The Warriors are vulnerable without KD despite all the numbers they have shown about their record with Curry and without Durant.  That was evident last series when they had to come back from 15-plus points down in three straight games against the Blazers.  Well, the Raptors are much better than the Blazers. 

Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  Golden State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 Sunday games.  The Raptors are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Toronto is now 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in all three meetings with the Warriors this season.  Bet the Raptors Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland A’s +129 

The Oakland A’s will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday at home against the Houston Astros.  They have lost the first two games of this series to their AL West rivals and don’t want to get swept.  Look for them to salvage this series with a Game 3 victory. 

Chris Bassitt is having a fine season for the A’s.  He is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Bassitt has never lost to the Astros, going 1-0 with a 3.08 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in two career starts against them. 

Gerrit Cole has certainly been hittable this year at 5-5 with a 4.02 ERA in 12 starts.  And Cole has allowed 4 earned runs in two of his last three starts against the A’s. 

The Astros are 0-4 in their last four during Game 3 of a series.  The A’s are 40-17 in their last 57 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Oakland is 8-3 in Bassitt’s last 11 starts overall.  Take the A’s Sunday. 

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -133 

The St. Louis Cardinals won 2-1 in Game 1 of this series last night in extras.  They really need to sweep the Cubs in this series if they are going to gain some ground in the NL Central, and I expect them to win Game 2 today as well. 

No question Jack Flaherty is the most talented starter the Cardinals have to offer.  He is 4-3 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.173 WHIP in 11 starts this year, including 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in six home starts.  Flaherty has posted a 3.93 ERA in four career starts against Chicago. 

Jose Quintana is 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 10 starts for the Cubs this year, but 1-2 with a 6.10 ERA in four road starts.  Quintana has allowed 8 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Cardinals for an 8.00 ERA. 

St. Louis is 8-0 in home games vs. excellent power teams that average 1.5 or more HR’s/start this season.  The Cardinals are 17-5 with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.  Chicago is 1-4 in its last five trips to St. Louis.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday. 

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +108 

After getting swept in Colorado in four games in excruciating fashion with a chance to win all four games in the final innings, the Arizona Diamondbacks return home Friday highly motivated for a win against the New York Mets in Game 1 of this new series tonight. 

I like getting the Diamondbacks as home underdogs here with rookie Jon Dupltantir on the mound.  He is the franchise’s top pitching prospect coming up from Triple-A Reno.  He has pitched five times in relief this year and has posted a 1-0 record and 2.25 ERA over 12 innings. 

Zack Wheeler is getting too much respect from oddsmakers as a road favorite tonight.  Wheeler is 4-3 with a 4.63 ERA in 11 starts, 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five road starts, and 1-1 with a 5.31 ERA in his last three starts. 

Arizona is 8-0 after scoring 10 runs or more this season.  It is coming back to win by 4.2 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Mets are 7-19 in their last 26 road games.  New York is 0-5 in its last five road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Mets are 1-4 in Wheeler’s last five road starts.  Take the Diamondbacks Friday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -122 

The St. Louis Cardinals have a big edge on the mound tonight over the Chicago Cubs and should be larger favorites as a result.  And it’s a Cardinals team highly motivated to chase down the Cubs in the NL Central as they trail them by 4.5 games currently. 

Miles Mikolas was the Opening Day starter for the Cardinals, which shows you the kind of stuff he has.  He is 4-5 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 11 starts this season, but he has been at his best at home, where he’s 3-3 with a 3.15 ERA and 0.825 WHIP in six starts.  Mikolas has never lost to the Cubs, going 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in four career starts against them. 

Yu Darvish is one of the most overpaid players in baseball.  The Cubs made a big mistake signing him a few years ago.  Darvish continues to struggle this season, going 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.618 WHIP in 11 starts.  He gave up 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 innings to the Cardinals on May 4th in his only career start against them. 

St. Louis is 7-0 in home games vs. excellent power teams that average 1.5 or more HR’s/game this season.  The Cardinals are 10-2 at home with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.  St. Louis is 8-0 in Mikolas’ last eight starts with a total set of 9 to 9.5.  The Cardinals are 10-2 in Mikolas’ last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals Friday. 

20* Warriors/Raptors Game 1 No-Brainer on Toronto -1 

What the Raptors just did to the Bucks in winning four straight was the most impressive feat yet in these playoffs.  The Bucks were the best team in the NBA during the regular season, and Nick Nurse and the Raptors came up with the proper game plan to stop them. 

Of course, the feat the Warriors just pulled off against the Blazers was also impressive.  They swept the Blazers in four games, winning each of the final three games despite trailing by at least 15 points in all three.  While impressive, it also shows how vulnerable the Warriors really are.  The Blazers aren’t that good. 

Certainly this is a step up in class for the Warriors, who will still be without Kevin Durant.  And the Raptors proved in the regular season that they could beat the Warriors, sweeping the season series while winning 131-128 at home and 113-93 on the road.  Kawhi Leonard is the best player in this series, period, and the role players for the Raptors are really gaining confidence. 

I think the 5-day layoff for the Raptors is the superior situation than the 10-day layoff for the Warriors, who are sure to be rusty in Game 1.  Toronto is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Raptors are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Raptors in Game 1 Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-112) 

The Cleveland Indians come into this series with the White Sox playing with confidence.  They had a big comeback win in a 7-5 win at Boston on Tuesday, and followed that up with an even more impressive 14-9 win on Wednesday.  They have scored 21 runs in their last two games and are swinging some hot bats. 

Those bats should stay hot against Chicago starter Mannu Banuelos, who has been nothing short of awful this season.  Banuelos is 1-4 with a 9.49 ERA and 2.108 WHIP in six starts.  He is also 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.401 WHIP in two starts against the Indians this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 8 1/3 innings. 

Carlos Carrasco is 4-5 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.261 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  While off his game a little, Carrasco still has 72 K’s in 58 2/3 innings to show that his stuff is still there.  And he loves facing the White Sox, going 7-0 with a 0.87 ERA in his last nine starts against them, allowing just 6 earned runs in 62 innings pitched. 

The Indians are 9-0 in Carrasco’s last nine starts against the White Sox with eight of those victories coming by two runs or more.  Enough said.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line. 

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +122 

It’s safe to say the Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated for a victory here Thursday afternoon.  They have lost the first three games of this series to the Rockies despite having a chance to win late in all three.  They want to avoid the four-game sweep by salvaging a victory in Game 4. 

Kyle Freeland is 2-6 with a 6.71 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in 11 starts this season for Colorado, including 1-3 with an 8.65 ERA and 1.654 WHIP in five starts at Coors Field.  Freeland faced the Diamondbacks on May 4th earlier this month, yielding 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 12 base runners in 6 innings of a 2-9 loss. 

Taylor Clarke is a nice young talent who is ready for the big leagues.  He is 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in two starts this season for the Diamondbacks, both of which have come on the road.  He should get some run support here as the Diamondbacks are just 6-for-28 with runners in scoring position in this series.  That’s poor luck more than anything. 

Arizona is 36-25 (+19.2 units) as a dog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons.  Take the Diamondbacks Thursday. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -115 

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the Rockies despite the game being in the balance in the final few innings both times.  I expect them to get in the win column here in Game 3 thanks to their huge edge on the mound. 

Robbie Ray is one of the best starters in baseball.  He is 4-1 with a 3.26 ERA in 11 starts this season with 76 K’s in 58 innings and only five homers allowed.  Ray will shut down the Rockies today. 

Jeff Hoffman is no more than a fill-in starter for Colorado.  He is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in two starts this season.  Worse yet, Hoffman is 0-2 with a 14.03 ERA and 2.398 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona. 

Ray is 17-3 in road games vs. an NL team with an OBP of .325 or worse over the last three seasons.  Ray is 10-1 in road games in night games over the last two seasons.  Ray is 13-2 as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last two years.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday. 

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Twins -109 

The Minnesota Twins blew a 4-0 lead yesterday and lost 5-4 to the Milwaukee Brewers.  They had 10 hits and left 10 on base, while the Brewers only stranded three runners.  It was a rare loss for the Twins, who are now 11-2 in their last 13 games overall.  They have scored at least 7 runs in nine of their last 12 and are scoring 6.0 runs per game on the season. 

I’ll gladly back the Twins as a short home favorite here Tuesday as they’ll be motivated to split the series with the Brewers and avoid the sweep.  I also like Devin Smeltzer making his big-league debut at home tonight.  He has been excellent in the high minors this season, posting a 1.15 ERA in nine starts between Double-A Pensacola and Triple-A Rochester.  He is only walking 4.8 percent of batters faced. 

Zach Davies has put up solid numbers as well this season, but his stuff isn’t that good as he has just 38 K’s in 55 2/3 innings.  And Davies was rocked for 6 earned runs in 3 innings last time out by the Reds. 

Minnesota is 25-6 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season, including 14-2 as a favorite of -100 to -150.  The Brewers are 1-6 in their last seven interleague road games.  The Twins are 42-17 in their last 59 games overall.  Bet the Twins Tuesday. 

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks +103 

The Arizona Diamondbacks really got their bats going over the weekend.  They swept the Giants in three games while outscoring them 34-8 in the process.  Look for their bats to stay hot against Jon Gray and the Rockies today at hitter-friendly Coors Field. 

Zack Greinke is 12-6 with a 3.78 ERA in his career against the Rockies, including 5-1 in 12 starts at Coors Field. Greinke is having another superb season, going 6-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.865 WHIP in 11 starts.  Greinke is 5-1 with a 1.63 ERA in his last eight starts, allowing just 10 earned runs in 55 1/3 innings. 

Jon Gray is 4-4 with a 4.62 ERA in 10 starts for the Rockies this season, including 1-1 with a 5.60 ERA in his last three starts.  Gray is 2-4 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.639 WHIP in eight career starts against Arizona as well. 

Arizona is 11-3 on the road with a money line of +125 to -125 this season.  The Diamondbacks are 10-2 after playing five or more consecutive road games this season.  Arizona is 8-2 in its last 10 during Game 1 of a series.  Bet the Diamondbacks Monday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -113 

I’ll back the Diamondbacks again today to sweep the San Francisco Giants.  I cashed them in in their first two games of this series, and they are obviously swinging some hot bats as they have outscored the Giants 28-6 in those two games. 

Luke Weaver is a very talented young starter who has performed well this season.  He is 3-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.977 WHIP in five road starts.  Weaver is 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.849 WHIP in three career starts against San Francisco. 

Shaun Anderson makes just his third start of the season for the Giants today.  He is 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.300 WHIP in two starts.  He has spent his entire career in the minors with mixed results prior to this season. 

Arizona is 7-0 after scoring 10 runs or more this season.  The Giants are 14-37 in their last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 8-24 in its lsat 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Giants are 3-9 in their last 12 after losing the first two games of a series.  Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday. 

20* Bucks/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2 

The Milwaukee Bucks were the best team in the NBA all season.  I’ll back them to get it figured out in Game 6 and get this series back to Milwaukee.  The Raptors simply are not this good, getting the breaks late in wins in Game 3 and Game 5. 

Officiating certainly went the Raptors’ way in Game 5 as they attempted 31 free throws compared to 18 for the Bucks despite the fact that the game was played in Milwaukee.  And Fred VanVleet hit 7 3-pointers, which was the difference and is unlikely to happen again. 

The Bucks are 31-16 SU & 28-17-2 ATS on the road this season, so they clearly aren’t phased by traveling.  And they lost in double-OT in Toronto in Game 3.  Not to mention, they won both regular season meetings in Toronto. 

Milwaukee is 16-4 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season.  The Bucks are 22-3 SU & 19-6 ATS off a loss this season.  Milwaukee is 37-16-2 ATS in its last 55 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Bet the Bucks Saturday. 

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +109 

The Arizona Diamondbacks hung 18 runs on the San Francisco Giants yesterday.  That’s not an easy thing to do in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park.  I expect them to stay hot at the plate today and win this game as enticing underdogs over the Giants. 

Taylor Clarke is a great young talent that is ready for the big leagues.  He made one start this season and gave up just two earned runs in 6 innings at Tampa Bay for a 3.00 ERA.  This is a much easier task here for Clarke in his second start against the light-hitting Giants, who score just 3.1 runs per game at home this year. 

We’ll gladly fade Andrew Suarez, who will also be making his second start of the season after giving up 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings for a 4.50 ERA against the Braves on May 20th.  Suarez is 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in three career starts against the Diamondbacks. 

Arizona is 11-3 in road games after scoring 10 runs or more over the last three seasons.  San Francisco is 15-36 in its last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Giants are 1-5 in Suarez’s last six starts.  San Francisco is 0-5 in Suarez’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Diamondbacks Saturday.  

20* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona Diamondbacks -120 

The Arizona Diamondbacks come in highly motivated for a victory after losing five straight to fall back to .500 on the season.  They had yesterday off, so they’ll be rested while the Giants just concluded a four-game series with the Atlanta Braves Thursday. 

Robbie Ray is clearly the better starter in this matchup.  He is 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts this season with 67 K’s in 52 2/3 innings.  He has been really sharp of late, going 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA in his last three starts.  Ray is 4-1 with a 2.98 ERA in 12 career starts against San Francisco as well. 

Drew Pomeranz is 1-4 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in eight starts this season for the Giants.  He has been terrible of late, going 0-2 with a 10.44 ERA and 2.128 WHIP in his last three starts.  Pomeranz has never beaten the Diamondbacks, going 0-3 with an 8.31 ERA and 1.962 WHIP in six career starts against them. 

Ray is 16-3 in road games vs. an NL team with an OBP of .325 or worse over the last three seasons.  Ray is 9-1 in road games in night games over the last two years.  The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in their last six games following an off day.  Arizona is 5-0 in Ray’s last five Friday starts.  Bet the Diamondbacks Friday. 

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 

After losing both games in Toronto, and getting embarrassed in Game 4, the Milwaukee Bucks return home highly motivated for a victory in Game 5 to regain control of this series.  The Bucks are still 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in these playoffs and the best team in the East, and that will show tonight. 

Milwaukee has been a great bet off a loss.  In fact, the Bucks are 22-2 SU & 19-5 ATS following a loss this season.  That’s right, they’ve only lost back-to-back games twice all season, and it just happened for the second time.  It’s been a resilient team, and that resiliency will really be on display tonight with the support of their home crowd on their side. 

Kawhi Leonard is clearly hobbled and tired.  The Bucks made the mistake of double-teaming him last game, and he found open shooters time and time again.  The Raptors’ roll players hit those shots at home, but now it will be the Bucks’ role players who step up at home this time around.  And I expect Mike Budenholzer to make the right adjustments like he’s done all season and to not double-team Kawhi.  He can’t beat them on his own. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Milwaukee is 10-1 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite this season.  The Bucks are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games off a loss.  Milwaukee is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home in the playoffs this season.  Bet the Bucks Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -135 

The Minnesota Twins have won seven of their last eight overall to improve to 32-16 on the season.  They have the second-best record in baseball behind the Astros, and I believe they are the real deal.  I think we’re getting a big discount on them today considering the massive edge they have on the mound over the Angels. 

Martin Perez has found a new home in Minnesota.  He is 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in three home starts.  The Angels are only hitting .228 and scoring 3.4 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season. 

Matt Harvey is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has been broken since getting injured with the Mets.  Harvey is 2-3 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.434 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 1.759 WHIP in four home starts. 

Minnesota is 15-1 in its last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 9-0 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.  The Angels are 0-6 in their last six home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Los Angeles is 0-6 in its last six after losing the first two games of a series.  These four trends combine for a 36-1 system backing Minnesota.  Bet the Twins Thursday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota Twins +107 

The Minnesota Twins are one of the most underrated teams in baseball this season.  They sit at 31-16 on the year after going 6-1 in their last seven games overall.  And now we’re getting them as underdogs here again tonight. 

Michael Pineda and Trevor Cahill have both struggled, but Pineda has been better at 3-3 with a 5.55 ERA in nine starts, including 2-1 with a 4.84 ERA in four road starts.  Cahill is 2-4 with a 6.96 ERA in nine starts, including 1-2 with a 9.22 ERA in his last three. 

The Twins have a big advantage here having just faced Cahill on May 15th, rocking him for 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings.  Pineda hasn’t faced the Angels since 2017.  And Pineda likely won’t have to face Los Angeles’ No. 3 and No. 4 hitters in Ohtani (hand) and Simmons (ankle), who were both hurt last night. 

Minnesota is 11-1 in road games vs. an AL team that hits .255 or worse this season.  The Twins are 14-2 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Angels are 17-36 in their last 53 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Twins Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -3 

The Milwaukee Bucks played about as poorly as they could have in Game 3.  Yet, they still forced double-overtime despite shooting just 37.3% from the field.  It was a must-win game for the Raptors in that spot, and they were fortunate to escape with a victory. 

They won’t be so fortunate in Game 4 tonight.  The Bucks aren’t going to shoot that poorly again as this has been one of the best offensive teams in the NBA this season at 117.9 points per game on 47.3% shooting.  They are loaded with great 3-point shooting to surround the unstoppable Greek Freak. 

Milwaukee is a ridiculous 22-1 SU & 19-4 ATS following a loss this season.  It is coming back to win by 15.0 points per game in this spot.  The Bucks are 12-2 ATS off a road loss this season.  They have been the most resilient team in the NBA this season.  Milwaukee is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 road games.  The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -124 

The Texas Rangers have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall and now have a shot to get back to .500 on the season with another win Tuesday.  They are red hot at the plate right now scoring a combined 46 runs during this six-game stretch. 

The Seattle Mariners got off to a blistering 13-2 start, but they are just 10-25 since to fall to 23-27 on the season.  Tom Milone will be making his first start of the season for Seattle.  He is 3-4 with a 4.53 ERA in 10 career starts against Texas. 

Lance Lynn is 5-3 with a 4.94 ERA in nine starts for the Texas this season.  He has given up just 4 earned runs in 14 innings in his last two starts as he continues to get better.  And Lynn is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in two career starts against Seattle. 

The Mariners are 1-14 vs. a starter who strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.  Seattle is 2-12 in its last 14 road games.  The Rangers are 5-1 in their last six home games.  Take the Rangers Tuesday. 

20* Warriors/Blazers ESPN No-Brainer on Portland +3.5 

The Golden State Warriors just became the first team in NBA history to win consecutive playoff games after trailing by 13 or more points.  It shows their resiliency, but it also shows how the Blazers could easily be up 2-1 in this series instead of down 0-3. 

From a line value perspective, there’s certainly value taking the Blazers in Game 4 here as 3.5-point underdogs when you consider they were 2.5-point favorites in Game 3.  That’s a 6-point adjustment.  I think the Blazers will show some pride here and not want to get swept. 

The Warriors are already without Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins, and now they could be without Andre Iguodala, who left with a calf injury in Game 3.  He is their best defender and the Blazers should have a lot more success offensively if he can’t go. 

Golden State is 4-12 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Portland is 11-2 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Blazers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.  The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Golden State is 19-42-2 ATS in its last 63 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Bet the Blazers Monday. 

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +123 

The Philadelphia Phillies are playing well after swiping the Rockies over the weekend.  And I like the angle here of Jake Arrieta facing his former team for the first time since signing with Philadelphia after the Cubs didn’t want to pay him. 

Arrieta has been solid this season at 4-4 with a 4.02 ERA in nine starts.  He is 1-2 with a 4.00 ERA in three road starts.  He is clearly the better starter in this matchup, and he shouldn’t be a dog here.  And he may not have to face Javier Baez, who suffered an ankle injury Sunday and is questionable. 

Yu Darvish has been awful since the Cubs signed him.  He is 2-3 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.619 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.691 WHIP in four home starts.  I also like fading the Cubs off a huge ESPN Sunday Night Baseball win over the Nationals last night.  Take the Phillies Monday. 

15* Bucks/Raptors TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -2 

It’s now or never for the Toronto Raptors.  They must win Game 3 if they want to get back in this series after losing the first two, and I trust them to get the job done. 

The Raptors are 37-11 at home this season.  Milwaukee is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games off three or more consecutive home wins.  Toronto is 18-5 ATS after failing to cover four of its last five ATS over the last three years.  Toronto is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the Raptors Sunday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -150 

The St. Louis Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of four overall.  And now they have their ace on the mound Sunday in Jack Flaherty. 

Flaherty is underrated because he has bad numbers thus far.  He is 4-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.280 WHIP in nine starts.  He’ll be opposed by Drew Smyly, who is 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.737 in five starts. 

The Rangers are 1-4 in Smyly’s last 5 starts.  Texas is 1-4 in its last five games following a loss.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -1.5 (-105) 

The New York Mets are so motivated today to beat the Miami Marlins.  Noah Synderaard is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA in his last three starts and pitching like the ace he is.  Syndergaard is 6-0 with a 1.64 ERA in eight career starts against Miami, having never lost to them. 

Sandy Alcantara is 1-4 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in three starts this season.  He is 1-2 with a 2.92 ERA in four career starts against the Mets. 

Miami is 11-31 as a dog of +100 or higher this season.  New York is 3-13 in their 16 road games.  The Marlins are 1-5 in Alcantara’s last six starts.  Miami is 8-21 in its last 29 games following a win.  Bet the Mets Sunday. 

25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -2 

The Portland Trail Blazers know they can beat the Warriors. They proved it in the regular season by splitting the season series 2-2.  And they certainly gave them a run for their money in Games 1 and 2 in Golden State. 

Indeed, the Blazers were tired off their seven-game series with the Nuggets, yet they were only down by 6 points at the end of three quarters despite playing their worst game of the playoffs in Game 1.  They played much better in Game 2 and actually led by 17 in the 3rd quarter, but the Warriors came back and stole a victory late. 

Now, with their season on the line, the Blazers should be able to win Game 3 at home.  The Warriors are likely to relax after protecting their home court, while the Blazers are likely to play with a big chip on their shoulder here after letting Game 2 slip away.  This is my favorite bet of the conference finals. 

The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games off a win.  The Blazers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Blazers Saturday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -114 

We’re getting the Atlanta Braves at a great value at home here tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers.  Kevin Gausman dominated in the second half last year after being traded to the Braves, and he has been solid thus far in 2019 as well. 

Indeed, Gausman is 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-1 with a 4.01 ERA and 0.892 WHIP in four home starts.  Gausman is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in one career start against Milwaukee as well. 

Chase Anderson has been hurt all year and cannot be trusted to go deep into this game.  He is averaging just 4.8 innings per start in his two starts this year.  Anderson has posted a 4.84 ERA in four career starts against Atlanta as well. 

The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games overall.  Atlanta is 6-1 in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  They called up Austin Riley recently and the fans have gone nuts.  It has also injected life into their lineup as the Braves have scored 26 runs while winning three in a row.  Roll with the Braves Saturday. 

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -114 

The New York Mets come into this game highly motivated for a victory after losing three straight, including Game 1 of this series to the Marlins.  They lost as -210 favorites yesterday, but today we are getting them at a much more reasonable price of -114. 

Steven Matz has been underrated his entire career in the big leagues.  He has performed well in 2019 as well, going 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in seen starts, including 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in his last three.  Matz is 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA in nine career starts vs. Miami as well. 

Pablo Lopez is 2-5 with a 5.93 ERA in eight starts for the Marlins, including 0-2 with an 8.59 ERA in his last three starts.  Lopez is 1-1 with a 12.00 ERA and 2.111 WHIP in two career starts against New York as well. 

Matz is 8-0 vs. teams who draw 3 or fewer walks per game over the last two seasons.  Matz is also 8-0 vs. NL teams that score 4 or fewer runs per game over the last two years.  Miami is 2-18 after having lost 3 of its last 4 games this season.  The Marlins are 0-9 in Lopez’s last nine starts vs. NL East opponents.  Take the Mets Saturday. 

15* Raptors/Bucks TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 216 

The pace was a rapid one in Game 1 as the Raptors got 92 shots up and the Bucks got 93 up.  Yet, they still went UNDER the 218-point total as the Bucks won 108-100 for 208 combined points.  I have to think the pace slows down quite a bit in Game 2 now that these teams are more familiar with one another, and as a result I like it to stay UNDER the total again. 

The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Raptors last nine road games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Raptors last six games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 11-3 in Raptors last 14 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Bucks last five games off a win.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee.  Roll with the UNDER in Game 2 Friday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -1.5 (-110) 

The Miami Marlins are the worst team in baseball at 10-31 this season.  They have the worst run differential (-2.3 RPG) in baseball as well.  Not to mention, the Marlins are 2-14 in their last 16 games overall with 12 of those losses coming by two runs or more. 

It doesn’t get any easier for the Marlins today as they’ll be up against NL Cy Young winner Jacob DeGrom.  He has been pitching like a Cy Young of late, going 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in his last three starts.  DeGrom has been at his best on the road this season, going 2-2 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in four starts.  He is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts against the Marlins this season, allowing just one earned run in 14 innings with 22 K’s. 

Trevor Richards is still in search of his first win of the season for the Marlins.  He is 0-5 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in eight starts, including 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in his last three.  Richards has never beaten the Mets, going 0-2 (0-3 money line) with a 3.57 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in three career starts against them. 

Miami is 0-10 when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  It is losing by 5.7 runs per game on average in this spot.  New York is 10-1 off a one-run loss to a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Marlins are 0-5 in Richards’ last five road starts.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the Mets.  Also, New York is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.  Take the Mets on the Run Line. 

20* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Indians -155 

The Cleveland Indians should be much bigger favorites over the Baltimore Orioles.  This is a tired Orioles team that will now be playing their 4th game in 3 days after losing both games of a double-header to the Yankees on Wednesday.  They proceeded to get blasted 14-7 by the Indians yesterday. 

This is another case of Cleveland starter Jefry Rodriquez not getting the respect he deserves.  He is 1-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in four starts this season, including 0-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in two home starts. 

Dylan Bundy is 1-5 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in eight starts for the Orioles, including 0-2 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in three road starts.  He has already allowed 11 homers in 40 2/3 innings this season. 

Bundy is 2-15 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer base runners per game over the last two seasons.  Bundy is 3-21 in night games over the last two years.  Baltimore is 4-21 after a game where its bullpen blew a save over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are 1-9 in Bundy’s last 10 road starts.  The Indians are 7-0 in their last seven vs. AL East opponents.  Cleveland is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Indians Friday. 

15* Blazers/Warriors ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Portland +7.5 

The 22-point blowout the Warriors put on the Blazers was a bit misleading.  This was a 6-point game at the end of three quarters.  Portland managed to hang around despite committing 21 turnovers and shooting just 36.1% from the field. 

So, the Blazers couldn’t have played any worse in Game 1, and they still had a chance to pull the upset going into the 4th quarter.  And they were in a tough spot off a difficult Game 7 win in Denver.  Now a few more days removed, and they should come back much fresher for Game 2 tonight.  Expect the Blazers to give the Warriors a run for their money. 

Golden State has shot 49.4% and 50% from eh field in its last two games.  Both of those were without Kevin Durant.  The Warriors aren’t a better team without Durant, and they certainly will be hard-pressed to continue shooting as well as they did in their last two games against Houston and Portland. 

Portland is 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  It is bouncing back to win by 8.3 points per game in this situation.  Golden State is 9-19 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season. The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games off an ATS win.  Take the Blazers Thursday. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-140) 

The Cleveland Indians had yesterday off following their 9-0 win over the White Sox on Tuesday.  They will be fresh and ready to go.  The Orioles just played a double-header yesterday against the Yankees and lost both games by two runs.  They won’t have much left in the tank today, and their bullpen will be depleted. 

Trevor Bauer should mow down this Baltimore lineup.  Bauer is 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.106 WHIP in nine starts this season with 72 K’s in 59 2/3 innings. 

Daniel Straily is 1-3 with a 6.93 ERA and 1.654 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has really been hit hard in his last two starts, going 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA while allowing 11 earned runs and 19 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in losses to the Angels and Rays. 

The Orioles are 9-42 in their last 51 during game 1 of a series.  Baltimore is 0-4 in Straily’s last four starts.  Cleveland is 6-0 in its last six vs. AL East opponents.  The Indians are 10-1 in Bauer’s last 11 Thursday starts.  Cleveland is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Thursday. 

20* Raptors/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -6 

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the best team in the NBA all season.  And as a result, they’ve been the best team for bettors to back, too.  They are currently 68-23 SU & 55-33 ATS this season.  They’ve been even better in the playoffs, going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS for backers with seven wins by double-digits. 

The Bucks went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Raptors in the regular season.  They are in the favorable spot here having a full week off after closing their series with the Celtics last Wednesday.  The spot is a much tougher one for the Raptors. 

Indeed, Toronto just completed a grueling seven-game series with the 76ers on Sunday.  We saw how much the seven-game series took out of the Blazers last night, and I think it will be the same for the Raptors.  I think they relax in Game 1 here after surviving the 76ers, and they will simply still be too tired to match the energy and effort the Bucks put into this game. 

Toronto is 1-9 ATS in road games after allowing 90 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Bucks are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+100) 

The Miami Marlins are the worst team in baseball at 10-30 on the season.  They have the worst run differential (-2.4 RPG) as well.  Miami is also 1-9 in its last 10 games overall with eight of those losses coming by two runs or more.  I’ll gladly back the Rays on the Run Line at basically even money today. 

Ryan Stanek has posted a 1.72 ERA and 0.702 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He hasn’t allowed a single earned run in nine of his 10 starts.  And the Rays have gone 7-3 in those 10 starts this season. 

I’ll gladly fade Jose Urena, who is 1-5 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.554 WHIP in five home starts. 

Urena is 0-13 vs. teams who outscore their opponents by one or more runs per game over the last three seasons.  The Marlins are losing by 3.0 runs per game on average in this spot.  Miami is 3-18 as a dog of +125 to +175 this season, losing by 3.3 runs per game.  Roll with the Rays on the Run Line Wednesday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -105 

We’re getting the Philadelphia Phillies at a great value at home tonight as only -105 favorites against the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Phillies will be looking to bounce back from a 6-1 loss to the Brewers yesterday.  The Phillies are 15-8 at home this season and scoring 5.6 runs per game, while the Brewers are just 9-11 on the road and scoring 4.1 runs per game. 

Jake Arrieta continues to be a solid starter for the Phillies.  He is 4-3 with a 3.78 ERA in eight starts this season, including 3-1 with a 3.66 ERA in five home starts.  Arrieta is 8-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 17 career starts against Milwaukee as well. 

Gio Gonzalez is getting too much respect from oddsmakers for what he’s done in limited action this season.  He is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts this season, but he’s only averaging 5.3 innings per start.  Gonzalez has lost his last two starts against the Phillies while giving up 9 earned runs in 10 innings for an 8.10 ERA. 

Gonzalez is 1-9 in road games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse over the last two seasons.  Gonzalez is 2-10 in road games in night games over the last two seasons.  The Phillies are 11-1 in their last 12 during Game 3 of a series.  Philadelphia is 26-10 in its last 36 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the Phillies Wednesday. 

15* Blazers/Warriors ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Portland +7.5 

The Warriors are ripe for the picking with Kevin Durant likely to miss the first two games of this series.  Yes, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson caught fire against the Rockets in Game 6 last series to steal a victory, but they can’t be expected to stay that hot. 

The fact of the matter is the Warriors are short-handed.  They already lacked a bench before losing both DeMarcus Cousins and Kevin Durant.  The Blazers won’t take them lightly like the Rockets did, and this is a Blazers team with something special going right now. 

Indeed, the Blazers upset both the Thunder and the Nuggets as underdogs in their series.  Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are showing why they are one of the best guard tandems in the NBA.  And the Blazers are getting significant contributions from most of their role players like Seth Curry, Zach Collins, Enes Kanter, Al-Farouq Aminu, Rodney Hood and Maurice Harkless. 

The Blazers split the season series with the Warriors 2-2, including a 110-109 upset at Golden State as 9-point dogs.  Golden State is 1-8 ATS in home games when revenging a loss this season.  The Warriors are 9-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -124 

The Minnesota Twins have lost two straight coming in, so they’ll be highly motivated for a victory here, especially after losing Game 1 of this series to the Angels.  This is still one of the best teams in baseball at 25-15 on the season. 

The Angels will be going with an opener in Cam Bedrosian, so they will be using their bullpen for this entire game.  He has made two starts this season, both lasting just one inning and both resulting in losses to the Royals and Yankees. 

Kyle Gibson has been solid for the Twins, going 3-1 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in seven starts, including 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA and 0.811 WHIP in two home starts.  He is 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts as well.  Gibson has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in five consecutive starts against the Angels. 

The Twins are 4-1 in Gibson’s last five starts vs. Los Angeles.  The Angels are 13-40 vs. an AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.200 or better over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 18-37 in its last 55 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Twins are 13-3 in their last 16 games following a loss.  Minnesota is 8-2 in Gibson’s last 10 starts.  Minnesota is 43-20 in its last 63 home games.  Roll with the Twins Tuesday. 

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-115) 

The Boston Red Sox have really turned it around after a slow start.  They have now won five straight and eight of their last nine games overall.  Seven of those eight wins came by 3 runs or more, which is why I’m taking them on the Run Line here today. 

Speaking of turning it around, Chris Sale has done just that after losing his first five starts.  He has gone 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 3 earned runs and 14 base runners with a whopping 32 K’s in 21 innings. 

Kyle Freeland is no match for Sale.  Freeland is 2-5 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in eight starts this season for the Rockies.  He has been battered in his last three starts, going 0-2 with an 8.47 ERA and 1.588 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 17 innings. 

Boston is 39-12 after scoring 8 runs or move over the last two seasons, coming back to win by 2.2 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 7-19 in their last 26 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Red Sox are 42-12 in their last 54 interleague games.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -129 

We’re getting the Tampa Bay Rays at an excellent value here against the worst team in baseball in the Miami Marlins.  It’s a Marlins team that is just 10-29 on the season and with the worst run differential (-2.3 RPG) in baseball.  Getting the Rays as only -129 favorites is definitely a discount. 

That’s especially the case when you consider how good Tampa Bay starter Charlie Morton has been.  Indeed, he is 3-0 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in four road starts. 

The reason the Marlins are getting so much respect here is because of starter Caleb Smith, who is 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.891 WHIP in seven starts this season.  While impressive, it’s a Marlins team that is scoring only 2.7 runs per game, so he is unlikely to get much run support here.  And Smith is 0-0 with a 5.41 ERA and 1.802 WHIP in his lone career starts against Tampa Bay. 

Miami is 3-17 as a dog of +125 to +175 this season.  The Marlins are 0-11 after three or more consecutive road games this season.  The Ryas are 11-1 in their last 12 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Tampa Bay is 4-0 in Morton’s last four road starts.  Take the Rays Tuesday. 

20* Brewers/Phillies ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia -142 

The Philadelphia Phillies have won four of their last five while scoring at least 5 runs in all four victories.  They have a vastly improved offense this season that is scoring 5.2 runs per game on the season, and 5.7 runs per game at home. 

After surprising slow start, ace Aaron Nola has turned it around quickly.  He is 1-0 with a 1.47 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in his last three starts.  Nola has never lost to the Brewers, going 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in five career starts against them. 

Freddy Peralta has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 1-1 with an 8.31 ERA and 1.754 WHIP in five starts for the Brewers, including 0-1 with a 13.51 ERA and 2.533 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 16 earned runs, 31 base runners and 6 homers in 10 2/3 innings. 

Nola is 15-2 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer baserunners per game over the last two seasons.  Nola is 18-3 at home when working on 5 or 6 days’ rest over the last three years.  Philadelphia is 6-1 in its last seven home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Phillies Monday. 

15* 76ers/Raptors TNT ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -6 

The Philadelphia 76ers just can’t be trusted to go on the road and win a big Game 7 like this.  They only have one player you can trust, and that’s Jimmy Butler.  Joel Embiid has been held in check this series by Marc Gasol, Ben Simmons has only had one good game, and Tobias Harris hasn’t been much of a factor. 

The Raptors did lose once at home to the 76ers in Game 2, but they blew them out by 13 and 36 points in the other two meetings in Toronto.  The Raptors are now 15-1 SU & 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the 76ers.  They have covered six of their last seven at home against Philadelphia. 

Home teams are 105-28 (79%) at home in Game 7’s all-time.  Toronto is 16-3 ATS in home games vs. division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following. Loss by more than 10 points.  Take the Raptors Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco Giants -103

After losing three straight games, including their first two games in this series to the Reds, the Giants will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep and get a victory in Game 3.  They turn to ace Madison Bumgarner to get the job done this afternoon. 

Bumgarner has been solid this season at 2-4 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in eight starts with 51 K’s in 49 2/3 innings.  So it’s clear his stuff is still there, and he should be able to handle this weak Cincinnati lineup that hits .197 and scores 3.3 runs per game on the road this season. 

Tyler Mahle is still in search of his first win of the season for the Reds.  He is 0-5 with a 3.69 ERA in seven starts this season, so he has pitched decent but has had some hard luck.  Mahle is 0-5 with a 3.97 ERA in six road starts.  He is also 0-1 with a 10.81 ERA and 2.402 WHIP in one career starts against San Francisco. 

The Reds are 1-11 in Mahle’s last 12 starts, including 0-8 in his last eight road starts.  Cincinnati is 36-75 in its last 111 Sunday games.  The Reds are 22-50 in their last 72 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Roll with the Giants Sunday.