20* TCU/Baylor Big 12 Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -2 

The books have been off on TCU all season.  They are just 4-6 SU & 1-9 ATS this year.  Yet they keep getting respect from the books week after week.  And they’re getting too much respect again this week as only 2-point road underdogs to the Baylor Bears. 

Things have gotten so bad for TCU that they lost outright to Kansas as 13-point favorites.  They have completely fallen apart since losing to Ohio State in Week 3.  They are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games since then and have failed to cover by a combined 101 points in those seven games!  Books haven’t even been close on this team. 

While TCU still has a respectable defense, though were forced for 52 points against Oklahoma and 47 against West Virginia.  But the defense isn’t the issue.  It’s the putrid offense that has been held to 17 points or fewer in five of their last seven games.  That’s just not going to cut it in the Big 12.  They lost starting QB Shawn Robinson to a season-ending shoulder injury on October 22nd, and then lost their best playmaker in KaVontae Turpin on October 23rd due to a suspension. 

I don’t even think TCU wants to make a bowl game at this point, they just want the season to be over.  The Horned Frogs lost 10-47 at West Virginia last week and looked to have quit.  We actually saw this a few years back in 2013 with the Horned Frogs as they finished 4-8.  Sitting at 4-6 on the season, a 4-8 finish is highly likely at this point. 

Conversely, Baylor wants to get to a bowl game.  The Bears are in the second year under Matt Rhule and have been one of the most improved teams in the country.  They sit at 5-5 on the season and one win shy of a bowl berth.  They’ll be highly motivated to clinch that bowl bid here at home Saturday instead of waiting until next week against Texas Tech. 

I was impressed with the way Baylor played against Iowa State on the road last week.  If they didn’t have struggles in the red zone and two missed chip shot field goals, they probably would have won that game.  They actually outgained the Cyclones 505 to 355 in that game, or by 150 total yards.  Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12, so putting up 505 yards on them is no small feat. 

The Bears received good news early this week when it was announced that QB Charlie Brewer wouldn’t be suspended for this game after getting ejected against Iowa State.  Brewer is completing 61.6% of his passes for 2,164 yards with 14 touchdowns and only six interceptions on the season, while also rushing for 223 yards and four scores.  He has really taken a big step forward as a sophomore this season, as has the rest of this team under the guidance of Rhule. 

TCU is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better this season.  The Horned Frogs are 0-7 ATS in conference games this season.  This is simply as obvious as it looks folks.  The Horned Frogs are once again getting respect from the books that they don’t deserve here.  Roll with Baylor Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas +20.5 

I usually look to fade teams the week after they play Alabama.  There’s usually a ‘hangover’ effect from the loss to the No. 1 team in the country.  Simply put, teams won’t be nearly as motivated against their next opponent.  And teams certainly are beat up physically from facing the Crimson Tide.  Such is the case for Mississippi State this week. 

I faded LSU in the same spot last week off their 29-0 loss to Alabama.  And they failed to cover as 14-point favorites against Arkansas.  And now I’m backing Arkansas again this week because they are once again facing the team that played Alabama last week.  They keep getting these good scheduling spots to close out the season. 

Quietly, Arkansas has gone 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team because they are just 2-8 SU on the season.  They are catching too many points every week, and that’s again the case here this week as nearly three-touchdowns underdogs to the Bulldogs. 

I’m not sure how Mississippi State is expected to cover three touchdowns when they have had a hard time even scoring three touchdowns.  Indeed, the Bulldogs have failed to top 28 points in any SEC game this season.  They are scoring just 11.2 points per game and averaging just 272.3 yards per game against SEC opponents this season.  Arkansas held LSU to just 24 points last week, and they should be able to hold Mississippi State to 24 or fewer, too. 

The Razorbacks have been respectable against the run this season, giving up just 155 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry.  That will be the key to their cover this week because Mississippi State is only completing 50.2% of its passes and is not known as a passing team.  The Bulldogs average 212 rushing yards per game, and that’s their strength.  They are very predictable. 

Arkansas is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games with a total set of 45.5 to 49 points.  The Razorbacks are 7-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent over the last three years.  Arkansas is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry over the last three years.  The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing the Razorbacks.  Bet Arkansas Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -16.5 

I cashed in Ohio State last week against Michigan State, and style points was the theme.  They took care of business in a 26-6 win as only 3.5-point favorites.  The Buckeyes need style points this time of year because they are 10th in the latest playoff rankings.  And they’ll be looking for more style points this week against Maryland. 

Let’s just look at the last four meetings in this series, and you’ll love Ohio State as much as I do this week. The Buckeyes are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, winning by 48, 59, 21 and 28 points.  They have won those four meetings by an average of 39 points per game.  And we’re only having to lay 16.5 with the Buckeyes this week? Sign me up. 

The reason Maryland struggles against teams like Ohio State is because they can’t keep up with them offensively.  Maryland is a run-first team that struggles against teams that can stop the run.  That was on display two weeks ago when they lost to Michigan State 24-3 at home, the same Michigan State team Ohio State just beat by 20 on the road. 

Maryland only averages 131 passing yards per game, but 235 rushing.  Well, Ohio State has been good at stopping the run this season as they give up just 143 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  The only teams that Ohio State has really struggled against are teams that can throw the ball, which includes their narrow wins over Nebraska and Penn State, and their loss to Purdue.  They won’t struggle against this predictable Maryland outfit. 

Maryland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after gaining 350 or more rushing yards in their last game.  They ran all over Indiana last week and still lost 32-34.  Again, that’s the same Indiana team that lost by 23 to Ohio State.  The Terrapins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good passing teams who complete 62% of their passes or better.  They are losing by 30.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Look for the Buckeyes to hang a big number on the Terrapins and cover this generous number with ease.  Roll with Ohio State Saturday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple -13.5 

It was obvious that South Florida’s 7-0 start was a fraudulent one.  They were outgained by 176 yards by Georgia Tech and found a way to win.  They were also outgained by 116 yards by ECU and won 20-13.  They only beat Tulsa by one and UConn by 8, and those are two of the worst teams in the AAC. 

But once the competition ramped up in recent weeks, the Bulls were exposed for the frauds that they are. They lost 36-57 at Houston and were outgained by 215 yards.  They lost 15-41 to Tulane at home, getting upset as 6-point favorites.  And they lost 23-35 at Cincinnati last week.  It’s worth noting the Bearcats had the ball down to the USF 1-yard line in closing seconds and took a knee. 

Now they have to face Temple, which I believe is the best team in the AAC.  They beat Cincinnati earlier this season and have been playing great football.  They should have beaten UCF a few weeks ago as they outgained them by 40 yards but blew a late lead and lost 40-52 on the road.  And then last week they went on the road at Houston and won 59-49 as 3.5-point dogs.  South Florida was blasted by both Houston and Cincinnati, and they’d get blasted by UCF, too.  They’ll get blasted by Temple this week. 

This is a Temple offense that is hitting on all cylinders right now.  They put up 40 points and 670 total yards on UCF two weeks ago, and then 59 points and 537 total yards on Houston last week.  When I’m laying double-digit points like this, I want it to be with an offense that is going to put up a big number.  And there’s no question the Owls are going to hang a big number on this poor USF defense that has allowed an average of 38.2 points per game in their last six games.  That’s real bad when you consider UMass, Tulsa, UConn and Tulane were four of those six opponents. 

I have to believe Temple remembers their 7-43 road loss at South Florida last year.  The Bulls weren’t afraid to run up the score on them, and the Owls won’t be afraid to run of the score this season to return the favor.  Temple won 46-30 in their last home meeting in 2016 as 6-point underdogs.  And this is the first time in recent seasons that Temple actually has the better team between these two.  They should have no problem winning by two-plus touchdowns here on Senior Day, which is also extra motivation for them. 

The Owls are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Temple is 8-0 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last three seasons.  The Owls are 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games over the last three years.  The Owls are 9-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game over the past three seasons.  These last four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Owls.  Take Temple Saturday. 

20* Memphis/SMU ESPN 2 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 72 

Get ready for plenty of offensive fireworks Friday night in this standalone game between Memphis and SMU in AAC action.  Both teams will be full speed trying to put up as many points as possible, and there will be very little defense being played in this battle between two teams known for offense and not so much for defense. 

Memphis is putting up 44.6 points and 531.9 yards per game this season behind a balanced attack that produces 270 rushing yards per game and 262 passing.  SMU is scoring 32.3 points per game this season and has improved as the season has gone on under Sonny Dykes.  The Mustangs put up 45 points against Houston and 62 points against UConn in their last two games coming in. 

The problem both of these teams have is that they cannot defend a lick.  The Mustangs are giving up 36.8 points per game, while the Tigers are yielding 30.5 points per game on the season.  The Tigers have gone OVER the total in three straight coming in, while the Mustangs have gone OVER in each of their last two contests. 

I think we get a similar output to last year when Memphis beat SMU 66-45 for 111 combined points and a total of 71.5.  The Tigers racked up 664 total yards in the win, while the Mustangs managed 477 themselves.  That was a similar total to this 72.5-point number we’re seeing here.  And I just think it’s two low as both of these teams get to at least 35 points in this one with Memphis likely topping 50.  After all, Memphis has scored at least 48 points in each of its last four meetings with SMU. 

Memphis is a perfect 7-0 to the OVER in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons.  We’re seeing 89.1 combined points per game on average in this spot.  The OVER is 9-1 in Tigers last 10 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game.  The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last four November games.  The OVER is 5-0 in Mustangs last five November games.  These four trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +7 

Both the Sacramento Kings (8-6) and Memphis Grizzlies (8-5) have been two of the surprise teams in the NBA this season.  The Grizzlies are winning with defense, while the Kings are winning with offense. 

The Kings are averaging 114.5 points per game this season, way up from last year, and it’s largely due to the improvement of point guard De’Aron Fox in his second season.  The Kings are shooting 48.2% as a team as they have gotten out in transition more and gotten easier buckets.   

The Kings come in rested as they have had the last three days off, so they’ll be ready to go tonight.  And Sacramento is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on three or more days’ rest. 

I think this is a precarious spot for the Grizzlies.  They just pulled off a huge 116-113 upset at Milwaukee on Wednesday as 9.5-point underdogs.  They could be in line for a letdown here against the Kings, who won 97-92 in their first meeting this season back on October 24th. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - off a road win by 3 points or less, a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games playing a team with a winning record and 65-30 (68.4%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Kings Friday.

15* Raptors/Celtics ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Boston -1.5 

The Boston Celtics are undervalued right now due to their lackluster 8-6 start that has seen them go 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They should be bigger than 1.5-point home favorites against the Toronto Raptors tonight. 

The Celtics came through with one of their best performances of the season last time out.  They crushed the Bulls 111-82 at home.  And now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They’ll be motivated to prove to the Raptors that they are the best team in the East. 

The Raptors opened 12-1 this season.  But they were overvalued at that point, and have since lost two straight at home to the Pelicans by 16 and the Pistons by 2.  They were nearly double-digit favorites in both those games.  They have some injury concerns right now that aren’t helping, either. 

The Celtics are 9-0 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past two seasons.  Boston is 12-3 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more over the last two years.  The Celtics are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Celtics Friday. 

20* FAU/North Texas CFB Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 61 

I think we’re getting value on the OVER tonight between FAU and North Texas because both of these teams have been under teams of late, especially the Mean Green.  North Texas has gone under the total in all 10 of their games thus far, which is almost unheard of.  But that trend stops tonight. 

The problem recently with betting overs in North Texas games is all the poor offenses they’ve been up against this season.  But they have still combined for 61 or more points four times with their opponents this season, and most of those were against the best offensive teams the’ve faced in SMU, Arkansas and Old Dominion. 

FAU has gone under the total in three of their last four games coming in.  The one exception was against the best offensive team they faced in FIU, and they combined for 63 points with the Golden Panthers.  The fact of the matter is that these are two of the best offensive teams in Conference USA, and we’re going to see plenty of points between them as a result to top this 61-point total. 

North Texas boasts an offense that puts up 37.2 points and 464.7 yards per game this season.  Florida Atlantic’s offense is putting up 31.1 points and 476.5 yards per game on the year.  The Owls are getting better as the season goes on offensively.  They put up 49 points and 596 yards against FIU and 34 points and 576 yards against Western Kentucky in their last two games coming in. 

These teams met twice last year.  The first meeting was a 69-31 FAU blowout with 100 combined points and a total of 67.  The second meeting was in the Conference Championship Game with FAU winning 41-17 and 58 combined points with a total of 71.5.  So the fact that the total was 67 and 71.5 in the two meetings last year and now it’s only 61 in the rematch this year shows there’s clearly value with the OVER. I expect both teams to top 30 points in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* Packers/Seahawks NFC No-Brainer on Seattle -2.5 

Thursday night home teams have a huge advantage on these short weeks, and I don’t think that’s being factored into the line enough here.  The home team is now 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in Thursday games thiss Eason.  The only two teams that lost were the Giants and Cardinals, two of the worst teams in the NFL, and they were both underdogs to the Eagles and Broncos, respectively. 

I actually have the Packers and Seahawks power-rated as basically even teams on a neutral field.  But when you factor in the home field for the Seahawks, and the situation with this being a short week and them only having to travel from Los Angeles to Seattle, while the Packers have to travel from Green Bay all the way to Seattle, and I think there’s ample value to back the Seahawks as 2.5-point home favorites here. 

The Seahawks are clearly better than a 4-5 team, too.  All five of their losses have come by 8 points or less, so they’ve been competitive in every game.  That includes 2 and 5-point losses to the Rams, who many consider to be the best team in the NFL.  The other losses were to the Broncos, Bears and Chargers with the first two of those on the road.  The Seahawks are actually outscoring opponents by 3.0 points per game on the season despite their record.  And it’s worth noting that the Seahawks have played six of their first nine games on the road. 

Green Bay has a big home-road split this season.  The Packers are 4-0-1 at home where they have handled their business.  However, the Packers are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 9.5 points per game on average.  They lost to the Redskins by 14, the Lions by 8 and the Patriots by 14.  The Redskins and Lions aren’t as good as the Seahawks. 

Seattle is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games after a game where 60 or more points were scored.  Pete Carroll is 17-4 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season as the coach of Seattle.  Carroll is 11-2 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as the coach of the Seahawks.  Carroll is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games as the coach of the Seahawks.  Carroll is 7-0 ATS when playing on Thursday as the coach of Seattle.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the Seahawks Thursday. 

15* Warriors/Rockets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Houston -1.5 

The Houston Rockets have had this game circled on their calendars ever since losing in Game 7 to the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night at home to get revenge on the Warriors. 

The Rockets may have won that series if Chris Paul didn’t miss the last two games with an injury, both resulting in Houston losses.  And the Rockets are hitting their stride right now.  They have won their last two games over the Pacers by 12 and the Nuggets by 10 and they are heating up from the field.  It’s probably no coincidence that they have started to play well since deciding to part ways with Carmelo Anthony. 

Conversely, the Warriors are faltering right now, and there’s tension in the locker room after Draymond Green got into it with Kevin Durant a few nights back.  They lost in that game in overtime to the Clippers, and then were sluggish on the second of a back-to-back in a 7-point win over the lowly Hawks.  Stephen Curry remains out and is questionable to return tonight.  And the Warriors will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. 

The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Rockets Thursday.

20* Blazers/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers are finally starting to gel as a team.  They have reeled off three straight victories coming into this game with the Portland Trail Blazers.  And now they’ve had two days off since last playing on Sunday, so they’ll be rested and ready to go at home tonight. 

The Blazers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after opening the season 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS.  They’ve been one of the best covering teams in the league.  But that is largely due to a home-heavy schedule, and they have handled their business at home this year. 

In fact, the Blazers have played nine of their first 13 games at home.  They have only played four times on the road.  Two of those home games were with the Lakers.  They won the first meeting but lost the second.  And now the Lakers get their shot at the Blazers at home this time around. 

The Lakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +9.5 

This is a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks and ‘sell high’ on the Thunder tonight.  The Thunder are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall coming in. 

But Russell Westbrook was a big part of that streak.  And now Westbrook is out with an ankle injury.  The Thunder have been able to win three of four without him, but two of those wins were against the Suns and Cavs, two of the worst teams in the NBA.  They’ll be fortunate to win this game, let alone win it by double-digits, which is what it’s going to take to cover this massive 9.5-point spread. 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Knicks, who are coming off their worst performance of the season.  They lost 89-115 at home to the Magic on Sunday, but now will be rested and ready to go with two days off in between games.  And that loss is forgivable when you consider they were coming off a tough loss in Toronto the night before and playing the second of a back-to-back.  They’ll be looking to make amends tonight. 

Oklahoma City is 8-23 ATS after having won two of its last three games over the past two seasons.  New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  The Thunder are 30-45 ATS in their last 75 games as a favorite.  Roll with the Knicks Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1.5 

The Brooklyn Nets were one of my favorite teams to back coming into the season and through the early part of the season.  But they just lost their best player in Caris LeVert to a dislocated foot, and that’s a huge blow to the team as he was one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  He was their best playmaker and leading scorer. 

I think the Miami Heat will be playing with an edge tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in, and they’ll be looking to take out hotter frustration on the Nets tonight.  They are as healthy as they’ve been all season and should put forth a big effort here. 

This is the Nets’ first home game back from a long four-game road trip.  I always like fading teams on their first home game back from a long trip because there are distractions at home they have to deal with.  And the Nets are certainly still feeling the loss of LeVert as the life has been sucked out of the franchise now.  It could linger for a few games before they recover. 

The Heat are 11-2 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Nets are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 trips to Brooklyn.  Bet the Heat Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +6.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight after the trade for Jimmy Butler.  It’s going to take some time for Butler to gel with his new team, and the 76ers will take a step back before they take a step forward with him, especially with all of these expectations from oddsmakers now. 

The Magic have quietly gone 4-2 in their last six games overall.  They won 117-110 in San Antonio and 115-89 in New York, while also beating the Wizards 117-108 and the Cavs 102-100 at home.  They are fully healthy and playing some solid basketball right now. 

The Magic are more than capable of beating the 76ers, let alone staying within 6.5 points here.  They showed that in their first meeting with the 76ers in a 115-116 road loss as 12.5-point underdogs.  They’ll now be out revenge from that defeat back on October 20th.  The 76ers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. 

Plays on home teams (Orland) - after two straight games where they attempted 10-plus less free throws than their opponent against an opponent that is off a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Magic Wednesday. 

15* Michigan/Villanova FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +7.5 

I really like the Michigan Wolverines catching 7.5 points tonight against the Villanova Wildcats.  For starters, they’ll be out for revenge from their 79-62 loss to the Wildcats in the Championship Game back in April.  They’ll clearly be the more motivated team in this one. 

“I definitely still recall walking off the court and hearing all the Villanova fans going crazy saying, ‘Villanova national champs,” Michigan guard Jordan Poole told the Detroit News. “It was kind of sat in the back of my mind and it’s just fuel to the fire.  Isaiah (Livers) and me talk about it.  We want it really bad.  I mean, I don’t even know how to describe it." 

Villanova lost almost everyone from that team.  They lost their four leading scorers all to the NBA in Jalen Brunson (18.9 PPG), Mikal Bridges (17.7 PPG), Donte DiVencenzo (13.4 PPG) and Omari Spellman (10.9 PPG).  Sure, they have some talent coming in, but you simply don’t replace those four guys. 

Michigan brings back three starters from their Final Four team in Charles Matthews (13.0 PPG), Zavier Simpson and Isaiah Livers, who combined with Eli Brooks to make 34 starts last year.  They got two ESPN Top 100 recruits in Brandon Johns and David DeJulius to help contribute right away.  They are neck-and-neck with Michigan State in terms off odds to win the Big Ten title this season, so they’re going to be good again. 

Michigan rode its defense to the Final Four last season, and it will do so again.  That has been on display in their first two games this season.  They held Norfolk State to 44 points and 30.5% shooting and then Holy Cross to just 37 points and 30.8% shooting. 

The Wolverines are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % of better than .600.  Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Michigan Wednesday. 

15* Hawks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +13 

The Golden State Warriors are just not the same team without Steph Curry.  They are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games without him with their only win coming at home against the Brooklyn Nets.  And they did themselves no favors by erasing a huge deficit last night to the Clippers. 

Indeed, the Warriors rallied from double-digits down to force overtime against the Clippers last night, only to lose 116-121 in the extra session.  And now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here, so they won’t have much left in the tank for the Atlanta Hawks tonight. 

The Hawks went on the road and showed they could play with a good team from the Western Conference last time out, only losing 106-107 to the Lakers as 11-point underdogs.  And now they had yesterday off and will be rested and ready to take their shot at the short-handed, tired defending champs.  I know we’ll get a big effort from the Hawks tonight, but I question what kind of effort we’ll get from the Warriors without Curry. 

The Hawks have played the Warriors very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 12 points or less.  The Hawks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing 105 points or more in four straight games coming in.  The Warriors are 1-12 ATS in Tuesday games over the last two seasons.  Take the Hawks Tuesday. 

20* Wisconsin/Xavier FS1 No-Brainer on Wisconsin PK 

The Wisconsin Badgers are loaded this season.  They return all five starters and 95% of their scoring from last season, led by forward Ethan Happ.  He averaged 17.9 points, 8.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game last season and is one of the best big men in the country. 

The Badgers were hit hard by injuries last season.  But now they get three important pieces in the backcourt back from injuries in Brad Davison, D’Mitrik Trice and Kobe King.  Trice and King only played in 10 games each before being sidelined last year.  Also back are Khalil Iverson (8.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and 3-point specialist Brevin Pritzl (8.9 PPG). 

Xavier is in rebuilding mode with head coach Chris Mack leaving for Louisville.  Gone with him are each of the top three scorers from last year in Trevon Bluiett (19.3 PPG), J.P. Macura (12.9 PPG) and Kareem Kanter (10.9 PPG).  Also gone are key reserves Kaiser Gates (7.2 PPG) and Sean O’Mara (6.7 PPG). 

Xavier has opened 2-0, but they’ve been unconvincing home wins over IUPUI 82-69 as 18.5-point favorites and Evansville 91-85 as 20.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread in both games.  That 6-point win over Evansville is particularly concerning when you consider Evansville lost 60-99 at Illinois already, an Illinois team that returns just one starter this year.  Bet Wisconsin Tuesday. 

20* Giants/49ers MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 43.5 

The San Francisco 49ers are just 2-7 on the season while the New York Giants are 1-7.  I like backing the OVER on teams with nothing to play for but pride in National TV games.  It just seems as though the offenses take chances and there’s more big plays because they have nothing to lose.  And the defenses aren’t prepared for it. 

I was certainly impressed with the 49ers’ offense against the Raiders last week with Nick Mullens making his first start.  They racked up 34 points and 405 total yards against the Raiders.  Mullens went 16-of-22 for 262 yards and three touchdowns.  He’s from Southern Miss, just like Brett Favre, who is one of his biggest fans.  He’s out to prove that he belongs in this league. 

The Giants’ offense has held them back so far.  And you know that offensive-minded head coach Pat Shurmur doesn’t like what he’s seen so far.  So the Giants come off a bye week, and I fully expect them to have a bunch of new wrinkles on offense.  They have the two best playmakers on the field in Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley.  They should be able to come through with one of their best offensive performances of the season against this 49ers defense.  The 49ers are giving up 26.6 points per game while the Giants are giving up 25.6 points per game this season. 

The 49ers are 6-0 OVER off a non-conference games over the last two seasons.  They are combining with their opponents for 54.0 points per game in this spot.  The OVER is 18-5 in Giants last 23 games after allowing more than 15 rushing yards in they previous game.  The OVER is 4-0 in 49ers last four games following a win.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5 

The Utah Jazz are out for revenge tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.  They have already lost twice at home to the Grizzlies this season, but one of those was without Donovan Mitchell.  It’s clear that the Jazz are going to want this game a lot more than Memphis will tonight. 

All has been good with the Grizzlies since Mitchell returned from injury.  They have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS since his return, beating the Mavs by 15 at home and the Celtics by 8 at home.  And they should be able to go on the road in this spot now that they are fully healthy and beat the Grizzlies by 4-plus points. 

The Grizzlies are the ones with the injury problems right now.  JayMychal Green and Chandler Parsons have been out for a while, but now Omri Casspi and Dillon Brooks are also out.  They are short-handed, which will make it tough for them to compete with the Jazz, who are one of the best teams in the NBA att full strength. 

Memphis is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games off two consecutive home games.  Utah is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Jazz are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - revenge a loss where opponent score 100 or more points against opponent that’s off a home win scoring 110 or more are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Jazz Monday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +9 

The Phoenix Suns are showing great value as 9-point road underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  This is the perfect ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Suns after losing 10 of their last 11 games coming in.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them. 

It’s also the perfect ‘sell high’ opportunity on the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But almost all of that run came with Russell Westbrook healthy and leading this team.  That’s not the case any longer. 

The Thunder were able to win their first two games without Westbrook, beating the Cavs on the road and the Rockets at home.  But it caught up with them last time out in a 96-111 road loss at Dallas.  Teams can usually play well for one or two games without their stars, but it doesn’t last.  The Thunder are just an average to below average team in this league without Westbrook. 

The Thunder are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Monday games.  Oklahoma City is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  Phoenix is 78-50 ATS in its last 128 games off a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  The Thunder are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games after having won two of their last three coming in.  Bet the Suns Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2 

The Miami Heat will be highly motivated for a win Monday night.  They have lost two straight to Indiana and Washington coming in.  And they also want revenge on the Philadelphia 76ers after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them last year. 

But these aren’t the same 76ers.  They traded away Dario Saric and Robert Covington for Jimmy Butler.  And Butler isn’t even going to play tonight.  So they are short-handed tonight, and I don’t think they can beat the Heat in their current state. 

Philadelphia is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 road games after two straight games committing 7-plus turnovers more than their opponents.  The 76ers are just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 10.9 points per game in the process. 

Miami is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Heat are 9-0 ATS vs. good foul drawing teams who shoot 27 or more free throws per game over the last three years.  The 76ers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.  Take the Heat Monday. 

15* Stanford/UNC ESPN 2 No-Brainer on North Carolina -18 

The UNC Tar Heels return three starters and have their best recruiting class in years, which coincidentally comes as they emerged from years of uncertainty due to the now-resolved NCAA academic issues.  This team is loaded and ready to make another Final Four run this season. 

Luke Maye (16.9 PPG, 10.1 RPG last year) is the Preseason ACC Player of the Year.  Cameron Johnson (12.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG) and Kenny Williams (11.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG) are both back as well.  Nassir Little (14.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG this season) and Coby White (11.0 PPG) are two freshmen standouts who are already helping this team right away. 

UNC has been impressive in winning and covering in its first two games this season.  The Tar Heels won 78-67 as 10.5-point road favorites at Wofford and 116-67 as 17.5-point road favorites at Elon.  And now they have their home opener here against Stanford in what should be a great atmosphere on National TV. 

Stanford is a team I’m way down on this year.  A magazine I trust picked the Cardinal to finish 10th of 12 teams in the Pac-12 this season, and I can see why.  They have just two returning starters.  They lost three double-digit scorers from last year in Reid Travis (19.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG), Dorian Pickens (15.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG) and Michael Humphrey (10.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG).  And their roster features 11 of 15 players who are freshmen or sophomores.  It’s rebuilding time for head coach Jerod Haase this season. 

UNC is 11-0 all-time against Stanford, including a 96-72 road victory last season.  The Tar Heels have won 10 consecutive meetings against Pac-12 teams.  The Cardinal are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. ACC opponents.  The Tar Heels are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 vs. Pac-12 foes.  UNC is 35-16-2 ATS in its last 53 home games.  Stanford is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 60 points or less last game.  Take North Carolina Monday. 

15* Cowboys/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +7 

This is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Dallas Cowboys.  Everyone saw them lose to the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football last week, and now the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But it was their own mistakes that cost them in that game, and they’re easily fixable. 

For starters, the Cowboys rushed for over 50 yards in the first quarter, but then were held to just 72 yards for the entire game.  That’s because they quit trying to run the ball.  They were up 7-0 and instead of running it, Dak Prescott threw an interception in the end zone.  It totally changed the complexion of the game.  They managed to run the ball just 19 times the whole game.  I think they’ll make the proper adjustments and force feed Zeke Elliott, which is when they are at their best offensively. 

I know the Eagles are off a bye week, but I think that’s getting factored into the line too much.  Most would say the Cowboys are on a short week, which they are, but it’s not a true short week.  The Cowboys had their bye prior to the Titans game.  So this will still be just their 2nd game in 21 days.  They should be plenty fresh for this game. 

The Cowboys will also be playing with a chip on their shoulder to redeem themselves from that poor Monday night performance.  And they realize this is a must-win game, so they will be laying it all on the line.  They can’t afford to fall further behind the Eagles or the Redskins in the NFC East if they want a realistic shot of winning the division.  A win and they’re right back in the hunt.  I have no doubt they’ll show up with a big effort Sunday night. 

It’s certainly worth noting that Dallas hasn’t been more than a 3-point underdog all season to anyone.  So we’re getting value here on them as 7-point dogs.  And they have seemed to thrive in the role of the underdog in recent seasons, and struggle in the favorite role.  Dallas is 35-20 ATS in its last 55 games off a loss by 14 points or more. 

And it’s not like the Eagles are blowing anyone out this season.  They are clearly in the midst of a Super Bowl hangover at 4-4 on the season.  Only one of their four wins came by more than 6 points, and that was against the hapless Giants.  It’s worth noting the Giants actually outgained them in that contest, and the Eagles have been outgained in five of their eight games this season.  In fact, seven of the eight Eagles games have been decided by 6 points or fewer this season. 

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Dallas) - in a game involving two average teams with a +/- 3 PPG differential, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 99-51 (66%) ATS since 1983.  The Cowboys are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games on grass.  Grass fields fit perfectly into what they want to do, which is run the football.  The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on grass.  The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Philadelphia.  The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday night. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -1.5 

The Knicks are better than their 4-9 record, while the Magic are worse than their 5-7 record thus far.  I think we are getting value on the Knicks here as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Magic because of the perception that the Magic or better.  But that’s not the case. 

Let’s look at point differential.  The Magic are getting outscored by 7.1 points per game this season, while the Knicks are only getting outscored by 3.6 points per game.  And the Magic have played a home-heavy schedule with eight of their first 12 games at home.  The Knicks have played seven of their 13 on the highway. 

The Magic are 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog over the last three seasons.  The Knicks are 18-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 18-43-1 ATS in their last 61 games following a win.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

20* Seahawks/Rams NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +10 

Fading the Los Angeles Rams has paid off big-time for myself and my clients of late.  And I’m not going to stop now that they are 10-point home favorites here against the Seattle Seahawks.  This is once again too many points as the Rams continue to be overvalued due to their 8-1 record, previously 8-0 before they finally lost to the Saints last week, and I had the Saints as my 25* NFC GOTY. 

The Rams are now just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have won just one game by more than 7 points during this stretch, and that was against the 49ers.  And I certainly question the Rams’ motivation coming into this game.  They are in a ‘hangover’ spot from their loss to the Rams, and a ‘look-ahead’ spot because they play the Chiefs next week.  That makes this a sandwich game from them, and I’m not expecting their best effort. 

The Seahawks will be playing with revenge in mind after losing a 31-33 heartbreaker at home to the Rams in Seattle in the first meeting.  The Seahawks actually led that game by 7 points in the fourth quarter before getting outscored 9-0 in the final period to lose by two.  At 4-4 on the season, this feels like a make-or-break game for the Seahawks as well if they want any shot of making the playoffs. 

All four of Seattle’s losses this season came by 8 points or fewer, so they’ve been competitive in every game and haven’t lost yet by double-digits.  And this is the biggest underdog role of Russell Wilson’s career.  He’s never been a double-digit dog.  And Wilson is 3-0 ATS when listed as a dog of 7.5 points or more in his career. 

The Rams have some defensive problems right now.  They have allowed over 27 points per game int heir last six games coming in.  They haven’t been the same since losing Aqib Talib to injury, and their pass defense has suffered.  The Seahawks also rushed for 190 yards on the Rams in their first meeting.  The Rams are 24th in 3rd down defense.  The Seahawks are 7th in 3rd down defense.  The Seahawks are also 3rd in turnover differential this season, so they don’t beat themselves. 

I also think the Rams could be getting tired, which is another big reason I’ve faded them so frequently of late.  They are one of the few teams who have yet to have their bye week.  They don’t get their bye until Week 12 after they play the Chiefs, and by then they will certainly need it.  I also think the Rams have very little home-field advantage, as the Packers actually seemed like they were the home team when they played the Rams a few weeks ago. 

Pete Carroll is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams who average 7.5 or more yards per attempt as the coach of Seattle.  The Seahawks are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  The Rams are once again getting way too much respect from the books this week, and it will show up on the scoreboard as Seattle has a shot to win this game outright.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday. 

25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions +7 

This is the perfect opportunity to ‘sell high’ on the Chicago Bears and ‘buy low’ on the Detroit Lions.  This line is maxed out with Chicago -7 as they should never be a 7-point favorite over the Lions.  But because the public has seen the Bears succeed lately and the Lions fail, oddsmakers have to set this line higher than it should be knowing the public will be quick to back the Bears. 

Chicago is coming off back-to-back wins and covers with a 24-10 home victory over the Jets, and a 41-9 road victory at the Bills.  Those are two of the worst teams in the NFL.  The Jets were banged up, especially at receiver with no weapons.  And the Bills gave the game away with four turnovers. 

There was no more misleading final score than Chicago 41-9 victory over the Bills last week.  Indeed, the Bears only managed 190 total yards in that game and were actually outgained by 74 yards by the Bills.  You read that right, the Bears had less than 200 total yards yet still scored 41 points.  I can’t remember the last time that happened.  So we’re getting extra value here due to that misleading score. 

Conversely, Detroit is coming off two straight poor performances.  They lost 14-28 at home to the Seahawks and 9-24 on the road to the Vikings.  Well, they had every chance to score in the red zone but committed 3 turnovers against Seattle.  And that was a Seahawks team coming off a bye, so it was a favorable spot for them.  And in the 9-24 loss to the Vikings the Lions played well defensively, giving up just 283 total yards.  Both of those games were closer than the final scores, and both were against two of the better teams in the NFC, not the weak competition Chicago has feasted on. 

Chicago’s five wins this season have come against the Seahawks, Cardinals, Bucs, Jets and Bills.  Those five teams are a combined 14-27 this season, and non has a winning record.  The Lions have beaten the Patriots and Packers, so they’ve proven they can play with anyone.  And I think we get a big effort from them here knowing their season is on the line.  A win and the Lions would pull within one game of first place in the NFC North.  A loss and they would be facing an insurmountable deficit, three games behind the Bears.  Detroit will be the more motivated team, hands down. 

Matthew Stafford clearly loves facing the Bears, as evidenced by Detroit’s domination in this series in recent years.  Indeed, the Lions are 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Their only loss during this stretch came by a final of 14-17 at Soldier Field.  If the Bears win this game, it won’t be by more than 7 points.  There is a ton of value on the Lions this week. 

Plays against home teams (Chicago) who force 2.5 or more turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1983.  Their turnover luck has been great this season, and they can’t keep forcing turnovers at this rate.  And this just goes to show you how there’s value in fading a team coming off a 4-turnover game like the Bears had against the Bills last week. 

The Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games after tailing their last two games by 10-plus points at halftime.  Detroit is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 road games off a loss by 14 points or more.  The Bears are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite.  Take the Lions Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +7.5 

The Brooklyn Nets have reeled off three straight impressive victories and still aren’t getting the respect they deserve.  They won 122-97 at home over the 76ers as 4-point dogs, 104-82 at Phoenix as 2-point favorites, and 112-110 at Denver as 8.5-point dogs. 

I realize this is the second of a back-to-back for the Nets, but they had two days off prior to that Denver game, so they won’t be as tired as most teams would.  Plus, the Nets are arguably the deepest team in the league, so they are affected much less by these back-to-backs than most teams. 

The Warriors are in a worse situation.  They are going to be playing without two of the Big Four today.  Stephen Curry will miss significant time after leaving last game with a groin strain.  And Draymond Green is also out with a foot injury.  Not to mention, both Shaun Livingston and DeMarcus Cousins are out.  The Warriors don’t even have a point guard right now. 

The Nets have played the Warriors very tough of late, going 4-0 ATS in their four meetings over the past few seasons, including their 114-120 home loss at 9.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Golden State.  I like the fact that they are out for revenge here as well. 

The Nets are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 road games, including 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Nets Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  And they had to go to overtime to beat the Hornets 133-132 at home last night.  It’s safe to say they won’t have much left in the tank for the Grizzlies here. 

The Grizzlies are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  It’s amazing what they are capable of when Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are both healthy and on the floor at the same time.  The Grizzlies are 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS this season. 

The Grizzlies have been at their best at home, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 12.3 points per game on average.  They have some of the best home fans in the NBA.  Meanwhile, the 76ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 11.7 points per game. 

The Grizzlies have owned this series as well, going 10-1 SU in their last 11 meetings with the 76ers.  Enough said.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday. 

15* Clemson/Boston College ACC No-Brainer on Boston College +20 

It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Clemson Tigers this week.  Bettors are clearly being asked to pay a tax to back Clemson now after what they’ve done in recent weeks.  Not only are they 9-0 and the No. 2 ranked team in the country, but they’re 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, winning by 60, 34, 49 and 61 points.  But that was against the bottom of the ACC in Wake Forest, NC State, FSU and Louisville. 

Now Clemson actually has to play what I believe is the second-best team in the ACC in Boston College.  The Eagles are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS this season and have been covering machines over the past two years.  Yet, they are getting absolutely no respect from oddsmakers this week as 20-point home underdogs. 

This will be a night game in the cold in Boston.  The Eagles are used to these conditions, while the Tigers are now.  And Boston College is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 24.6 points per game on average.  They are outgaining their foes by 207 yards per game at home as well, averaging 504 yards per game on offense and giving up only 297 yards per game on defense. 

Clemson doesn’t need style points any more.  They just know that they need to win out to make the four-team playoff because they aren’t going to drop from the No. 2 ranking if they just keep winning.  They certainly wouldn’t drop all the way to No. 5 if they win out, but it’s ugly.  And so they can win this game and we can still win catching 20 points on the Eagles. 

One matchup I like here is this Boston College offensive line against Clemson’s defensive line.  The Tigers get all the accolades for having a NFL talent across their defensive line, but the Eagles have NFL talent on their offensive line as well.  In fact, I believe this is one of the Top 5 offensive lines in the country.  And they’re well-equipped to handle this Clemson defensive front.  The Eagles are rushing for 229 yards per game this season and have one of the better running backs in the country in A.J. Dillon.  Dillon and company can control the clock, move the chains and keep that Clemson high-powered offense off the field. 

Boston College is 11-1 ATS against ACC opponents over the last two seasons.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams who score 31 or more points per game over the last two years.  Boston College is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Clemson.  Bet Boston College Saturday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas +14 

I always like fading teams after they play Alabama.  This is the perfect spot to fade LSU.  Their dreams were crushed last week with their 29-0 loss to Alabama.  They could have won the SEC West and been a playoff contender if they had won that game, but they were thoroughly outplayed.  It was a bigger blowout than the 29-point margin suggests even as they were outgained by 380 yards and managed just 196 total yards on offense. 

Now the Tigers somehow have to try and get motivated to face a 2-7 Arkansas team, and I don’t think they will.  They certainly won’t be motivated enough to cover this 14-point spread.  The Razorbacks come in on two weeks’ rest fresh off their bye as well, so they should be sitting on a big effort here.  I’ll gladly back the more motivated home team in this matchup. 

Having a first-year head coach in Chad Morris, the Razorbacks won’t quit on their season, and they’ve shown no signs of doing so.  They have been undervalued here down the stretch, going 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Tulsa 23-0, only lost by 4 to Ole Miss after blowing a late double-digit lead, and they only lost by 7 at Texas A&M as 19-point dogs.  They covered as 35-point dogs against Alabama and actually scored 31 points on the Crimson Tide, which is the most they have allowed to anyone all season. 

The Razorbacks also get some key players back healthy this week off their bye.  And LSU usually plays Arkansas the week after Alabama.  That helps explain the fact that the Razorbacks are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Fayetteville.  Arkansas is 6-0 ATS off a home conference loss over the last three seasons.  The Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS int heir last four games following a double-digit home loss.  The Razorbacks are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Arkansas Saturday. 

20* Miami/Georgia Tech ACC ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Tech -3 

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have been a buzz saw lately.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and now would love to clinch a bowl berth with a home win Saturday against Miami.  They have not only been winning, they’ve been dominating. 

The Yellow Jackets’ four wins during this stretch came by a combined 112 points and by an average of 28 points per game against Bowling Green, Louisville, VA Tech and UNC with three of those games on the road.  Their only loss was to a well-rested Duke team coming off a bye week, but they gave that game away with three turnovers.  They have outgained each of their last five opponents and eight of their last nine foes with the only exception being Clemson.  They are much better than their 5-4 record would suggest. 

What does Miami have to play for at this point?  The Hurricanes were the favorites to win the ACC Coastal this season and they fell flat on their faces.  With three straight losses, they now sit at 5-4 and in 6th place in the Coastal.  They will simply be playing out the string at this point.  They were upset 12-20 as 9-point home favorites against Duke last week.  Their offense has been held to just 13 points per game in their last three contests. 

Now, the Hurricanes go into this game against Georgia Tech knowing it’s going to be physical, and knowing they are going to get cut-block all game.  They don’t want any part of it.  I expect Georgia Tech, which averages 377 rushing yards per game and 6.2 per carry this season, to break the will of the Hurricanes.  This Yellow Jackets offense has really taken off since Tobias Oliver took over at quarterback.  He has rushed for 780 yards and 12 touchdowns on 5.9 per carry. 

Miami is 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Hurricanes are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of 6 points or more.  Miami is 0-7 ATS off a conference loss over the last three years.  The Hurricanes are 0-7 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons.  Georgia Tech is 10-1 ATS after gaining 125 or fewer passing yards in three straight games over the last three years.  The Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday. 

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida International -10 

I think this is a ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Florida International Panthers this week.  They are coming off a 14-49 loss to Lane Kiffin and the FAU Owls.  That was a 21-14 game going into the 4th quarter before the Kiffin and company decided to run up the score late, which they’ve been known to do.  So that misleading final has FIU laying less than they should be here as only 10-point favorites against UTSA. 

It won’t be hard at all for head coach Butch Davis to get his team refocused this week and over that loss to FAU quickly.  That’s because when you look at the standings, the Panthers are just a half-game behind Middle Tennessee for first place in Conference USA’s East Division.  They are 4-1 and Middle Tennessee is 5-1, but FIU holds the tiebreaker over MTSU after beating them 24-21 earlier this season.   

They control their own destiny.  Win out and the Panthers will be going to the C-USA Championship Game to face UAB.  They’ll be motivated to get back on the horse this week and picked up where they left off with a four-game winning streak prior to that FAU defeat.  And they should have no problem making easy work of an overmatched UTSA squad this week. 

The UTSA Roadrunners are just 3-6 on the season.  They still have FIU, Marshall and North Texas on the schedule, and will be huge underdogs in all three games, so they won’t be going to a bowl game.  And that realization has really sunk in over the last three weeks as the Roadrunners have been battered and bruises. 

UTSA lost three straight to open the season, then won three straight over bottom feeders Texas State, UTEP and Rice to get to 3-3.  But then the competition ramped up again and they haven’t even been competitive at all.  They lost 3-31 at home to Louisiana Tech, followed by a 17-27 loss at Southern Miss, and then the ultimate 3-52 embarrassment at home to UAB last week. 

It’s hard to fathom how UTSA is supposed to stay within 10 points of FIU with their offense.  The Roadrunners are averaging a paltry 15.8 points, 243 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play this season.  They are averaging 10.4 points, 132 yards per game and 1.9 per play less than their opponents average giving up on the season.  This is one of the worst offenses in the country folks.  Compare that to FIU, which averages 33.7 points per game and 6.2 yards per play this season, and it’s easy to see how the Roadrunners are going to have a hard time keeping pace. 

UTSA has zero home-field advantage, especially now that they are this bad and there’s likely only to be a few thousand fans in attendance.  The Roadrunners are 0-9 ATS in all home games over the last two seasons.  UTSA is also 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two years.    Roll with Florida International Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Clippers +3.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are primed for a letdown tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers.  They are coming off a huge 134-111 road victory at Golden State.  I always like fading teams after they play the Warriors, especially after they beat the Warriors.  They always seem to have a letdown the next game. 

And it’s certainly worth noting those weren’t the real Warriors.  Stephen Curry got injured early and was forced to leave the game.  And they were already playing without Draymond Green.  Without those two, the Warriors are just an average team in this league. 

The Clippers are a team that has impressed me thus far.  They are 6-5 SU & 6-5 ATS this season and have been flying under the radar.  They are outscoring their opponents by 4.8 points per game on the season, and Doc Rivers has gotten the most out of this team.  They are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here so should be sitting on a big effort with the Bucks coming to town. 

The Clippers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.6 points per game.  The Bucks are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Milwaukee is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  The Clippers won both meetings last season with the Bucks.  Take the Clippers Saturday. 

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Northwestern +11 

The Northwestern Wildcats have been one of the most underrated teams in the Big Ten this season.  Here they sit at 5-1 within the conference and with a one-game lead over both Purdue and Wisconsin in the West Division.  Yet they are getting no respect as 11-point underdogs, and you can bet that head coach Pat Fitzgerald will play the underdog card the disrespect cards to their fullest Saturday when the Wildcats take on the Iowa Hawkeyes. 

The Wildcats went on the road and beat Michigan State and Purdue, while also topping Wisconsin at home.  Their only conference loss this season came to Michigan by a final of 17-20.  And we’ve seen in recent weeks how good Michigan is.  They also hung tough against unbeaten Notre Dame last week in a 10-point loss.  Yet here they are needing to prove themselves again, and they’ll be up to the task Saturday. 

I like the mindset of the Wildcats right now because they still haven’t clinched a bowl berth at 5-4 because of their struggles outside the conference.  Fitzgerald said his message to the team Monday was ’20’.  “This squad is only guaranteed 20 days together,” Fitzgerald said. “What we learn every day will hopefully prepare us for those three Saturday’s we have left together.” 

I think that Iowa is in a very tough spot mentally.  It’s going to be very hard for them to recover from back-to-back gut-wrenching losses to Penn State and Purdue in which they had to a chance to win both games in the final minutes, but came up short.  The same thing happened against Wisconsin a few weeks back.  That leaves the Hawkeyes at 3-3 within the conference and with basically zero chance of winning the West, because they also trail both Purdue and Wisconsin, two teams that hold the tiebreaker over them.  So basically Iowa is just playing out the string now. 

My favorite trend for this game is that underdogs are 9-0-1 ATS in Northwestern games this season.  That just goes with my theory that Fitzgerald thrives preparing his team when they are the underdogs.  They don’t respond as well to him when they are expected to win.  And the Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS as road underdogs over the last three seasons.  Northwestern is 20-5-1 ATS in its last 26 conference games. The Wildcats are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.  Northwestern is 21-4-1 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.  Bet Northwestern Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh -3 

Don’t look now, but the Pitt Panthers are 4-1 in ACC and atop the ACC Coastal Division.  They control their own destiny and have certainly been rejuvenated by it.  It should be a great atmosphere for Senior Day in their final home game of the season Saturday at Heinz Field as they host the Virginia Tech Hokies. 

The resurgent Panthers have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Syracuse 44-37 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 14-19 at Notre Dame as 21-point dogs, upset Duke 54-45 as 2.5-point home dogs, and upset Virginia 23-13 as 7-point road dogs.  And I still don’t think they’re getting any respect here as only 3-point home favorites against Virginia Tech. 

The Hokies are a mess right now.  They just haven’t recovered since their 35-49 road loss at Old Dominion, a team that is just 2-7 on the season.  The Hokies are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They were lucky to win 22-19 at North Carolina in a final seconds, a UNC team that is 1-7 this season.  They also lost by 22 at home to Notre Dame, by 21 at home to Georgia Tech and by 10 at home to Boston College.  It’s just not a team I trust at all right now. 

The key matchup here is Pitt’s running game against VA Tech’s young defense that just can’t stop the run. The Panthers are averaging 231 rushing yards per game and 5.8 per carry against teams that normally only give up 178 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  They are averaging 280 rushing yards per game in their last four, which is impressive considering they’ve faced some good run defenses in Notre Dame, Duke and Virginia during this stretch. 

Virginia Tech has allowed 178 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry this season.  But it’s gotten a lot worse for them of late.  In their last three games, the Hokies allowed 235 rushing yards to UNC, 465 to Georgia Tech and 219 to Boston College.  You can just imagine what this fierce Pitt rushing attack is going to do to them this week.  The Panthers should get 300-plus yards on the ground in this one. 

Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game over the last three seasons.  They are losing by 9.7 points per game on average against these power-running teams.  The Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in their previous game.  The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games, and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Finally, Pitt has owned VA Tech, going 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings at Heinz Field.  Take Pittsburgh Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee +6 

This is an awful spot for the Kentucky Wildcats Saturday.  They are coming off their ‘game of the century’ last week against Georgia.  It was for all the marbles to win the SEC East, and the Wildcats fell flat on their faces in a 17-34 defeat that really wasn’t even as close as the score.  And now what do they have left to play for? 

They’ve already clinched a bowl berth and they could win out and maybe snag a New Year’s Six Game, but it’s unlikely.  I think the most likely scenario is that the Wildcats fall flat on their faces this week at Tennessee.  This is clearly a ‘hangover’ spot for them, and I look for it to be one of their worst games of the season. 

I think we’re getting added value built into the line on Tennessee because the Vols are coming off a lackluster 14-3 home win over Charlotte last week.  Well, SEC teams who step out of conference right in the middle of the conference slate usually struggle to be motivated in these non-conference games. 

That was especially the case for Tennessee last week.  They were coming off five straight grueling conference games against Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama and South Carolina with three of those on the road.  They actually held their own in many of those games, winning outright at Auburn 30-24 as 15.5-point dogs, and only losing 24-27 at South Carolina as 10.5-point dogs. 

I think those performances against Auburn and South Carolina are more indicative of what Tennessee is capable of than their 14-3 win over Charlotte last week as 21-point favorites.  And you know first-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt is going to rally the troops this week.  Tennessee still needs two wins in its final three games to make a bowl, and they have home games against Kentucky and Missouri, and a road game at Vanderbilt to finish, so it’s very doable.  It starts with an upset of Kentucky this week. 

The Wildcats just don’t have the offense to put away teams.  They are scoring just 24.7 points per game an averaging 356 yards per game this season.  This is a below-average offense with numbers comparable to that of Tennessee.  And the Vols have actually been pretty good defensively given the tough schedule, surrendering just 26.7 points and 368.4 yards per game this season.  This is a much more evenly-matched game than this spread would suggest, and that’s even before you factor in the awful spot for Kentucky. 

Kentucky has been thriving in the role of the underdog lately under Mark Stoops, but now they have expectations with a national ranking and a 7-2 record.  And they haven’t handled expectations very well at all.  That’s evident by the fact that Kentucky is 1-9 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Stoops is 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Kentucky having never covered a spread in this price range.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday. 

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana -1.5 

I love the spot for the Indiana Hoosiers this week.  They are coming off a much-needed bye week after going through the gauntlet with four straight losses to Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State and Minnesota.  But they still sit at 4-5 on the season, and they still have two home games left against Maryland and Purdue, so they can still make a bowl game.  They’ll come in fresh and ready to go off their bye week as they seek their 5th win of the season. 

I just don’t like the feel of this Maryland program at all right now.  The Terrapins reinstated DJ Durkin then fired him again.  And the team has been drug through the media.  I think it showed last week in their lackluster 3-24 home loss to the Michigan State Spartans.  The Terrapins managed just 100 total yards of offense in an embarrassing effort.  Don’t expect them to fare much better this week, and I’m shocked Indiana is only a 1.5-point favorite Saturday. 

Indiana had won both meetings in 2015 and 2016 before losing 39-42 at Maryland last season.  They outgained the Terrapins 483 to 345 in that game, or by 138 yards and certainly deserved to win.  Now they’ll want revenge on the Terrapins, who probably just want this season to be over at this point and don’t even want to go to a bowl game. 

Maryland is 2-10 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last three seasons.  They are losing by 20 points per game on average in this spot.  The Terrapins are 1-8 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last three years.  They are losing by 33.8 points per game in this situation.  The Terrapins are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games overall.  Roll with Indiana Saturday. 

15* Ohio State/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -3.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes are grossly undervalued right now.  They have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, which is why they are only 3.5-point favorites at Michigan State this weekend.  I bought Ohio State down to -3 personally and hit it hard, and I think you should too.  This is the perfect ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Buckeyes, which is rare. 

Ohio State still has everything to play for.  At 8-1, the Buckeyes are the lowest ranked (No. 10) one-loss Power 5 team in the latest playoff rankings.  They have some work to do, but with ranked matchups against Michigan State and Michigan on the horizon, they can make up some serious ground.  They know they need to do so with style points, too, which makes laying this small price a no-brainer. 

I’m just not that impressed with this Michigan State offense, and I don’t think they have the firepower to hang with the Buckeyes Saturday.  The Spartans are only averaging 23.4 points, 360 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  Compare that to the Buckeyes, who average 42.2 points, 547 yards per game and 6.7 per play, and you can see how they are going to have some issues trying to keep up. 

Ohio State crushed Michigan State 48-3 at home last season.  Sure, I don’t expect it to be that lopsided again, but you don’t need much to cover this 3.5-point spread.  Under Urban Meyer, the Buckeyes are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or less or an underdog.  In these types of roles, the Buckeyes excel.  They just aren’t great at covering the massive spreads they’ve been asked to cover in recent weeks, which is why they are on an 0-5 ATS run.  That run stops today. 

The Buckeyes are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 games on grass.  Ohio State is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to East Lansing.  Ohio State is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Take Ohio State Saturday. 

15* Fresno State/Boise State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Fresno State -2.5 

The Fresno State Bulldogs have been the single-most underrated team in the country over the past two seasons.  That’s evident by their success against the spread as they’ve gone 25-4-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  They’ve also gone 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 road games. 

But because the Bulldogs play on the West Coast, they don’t get much national attention.  And they really should be 9-0, but their early season loss at Minnesota has them flying under the radar.  I get that they have had a lack of competition, but they have played everyone that’s on their schedule, and they’ve handled them all outside Minnesota. 

Indeed, Fresno State is 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in all games outside Minnesota.  They won all eight of those games by 18 points or more.  They are outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 28.1 points per game on the season.  Their offense is rolling at 40.4 points per game, and their defense would allow them to hang with anyone as they are giving up just 12.3 points per game on the season.  They have allowed 7 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall coming in, including exactly 3 points three times. 

Boise State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country since Brian Harsin took over.  They are just 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They stepped up in class and lost 21-44 at Oklahoma State and 13-19 at home to San Diego State.  They only beat Nevada by 4 and BYU by 5 recently.  And that BYU game they were thoroughly outplayed and fortunate to win. 

Fresno State clearly has the better defense between these teams, and it’s not really even close.  The Broncos have lost three of their best players on defense to season-ending injuries.  They were already without NT David Moa and S DeAndre Pierce, and now you can add leading tackler Riley Whimpey to the list as their LB suffered a torn ACL against BYU last week.  The Broncos are allowing 23.7 points per game this year. 

Fresno State wants revenge from a 14-17 loss to Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game last season.  The Bulldogs held a 14-10 lead at half but were shut out after intermission and lost a heartbreaker.  I have no doubt Fresno State is the better team this year, and Boise State has taken a step back.  And the Bulldogs will be looking to prove that on the field Friday night. 

Fresno State is 12-1 ATS in conference games over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 9-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two years.  Boise State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Broncos are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games overall.  Bet Fresno State Friday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +10 

The Brooklyn Nets just don’t get the respect they deserve in the betting markets.  They are in the third year of head coach Kenny Atkinson, and they’ve improved every season.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and they should get even deeper now with the healthy return of DeMarre Carroll from an ankle injury tonight.  He hasn’t played yet this season. 

The Nets are off to a 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS start this season.  Only two of those six losses came by double-digits, so they have basically been competitive in every game.  And given how well they’ve played in their last two games, there’s no way they should be double-digit dogs tonight.  They beat Philadelphia 122-97 as 4-point home dogs and won 104-82 at Phoenix as 2-point road favorites.  And now they’ve had two days’ rest since that win over the Suns to get ready for the Nuggets. 

Denver is clearly overvalued now after a 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS start to the season.  The Nuggets are starting to get a lot of love from the betting public due to this start.  This is only the third time they will be a double-digit favorite this season, and the other two were against the Suns and Kings at home.  They could be looking ahead to huge showdowns with the Bucks and Rockets up next. 

The Nets are 27-14 ATS as road underdogs over the last two seasons.  Brooklyn is 9-1 ATS in road games off a road win over the last two years.  The Nets are 9-0 ATS after allowing 90 points or less last game over the past three seasons.  Brooklyn is 10-1 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two years.  Take the Nets Friday. 

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee -16 

The No. 6 ranked Tennessee Vols are absolutely loaded this season.  They return all five starters from a team that went 26-9 last year and 13-5 in SEC play.  They should be much more than 16-point home favorites over LA-Lafayette tonight.  One magazine I trust has Tennessee as an Elite 8 team and the second-best team in the SEC, and I can’t disagree. 

The Vols return their top six scorers from last year.  They are led by Grant Williams (15.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Admiral Sheffield (13.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG).  They opened their season with a convincing 86-41 victory over Lenoir-Rhyne to get their feet wet.  And they should be prepared to beat down LA-Lafayette tonight. 

I’m shocked this line is only 16 when you consider LA-Lafayette went just 10-21 last season.  And they return just two starters from that squad.  Lafayette is picked by a same magazine to finish 8th of 10 teams in the Patriot League this season.  They stand no chance to compete with Tennessee here on the road. 

The Vols are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. SEC opponents.  Roll with Tennessee Friday. 

20* Panthers/Steelers Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh -3 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are rolling right now.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with all four victories coming by at least 7 points and by an average of 13.3 points per game.  They should keep rolling tonight in this Thursday home matchup with the Carolina Panthers. 

The Panthers are also playing well having gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  But they are getting too much respect from the books and the betting public as this line has dropped from -5 down to -3. I certainly love the Steelers at -3 now and I’m glad I waited for it to keep dropping before pulling the trigger. 

The Panthers have done all their damage at home this season.  They’ve played five home games compared to just three road games.  The Panthers are 1-2 on the road this season, losing to the Falcons and Redskins while getting a fortunate win at Philadelphia after erasing a double-digit deficit in the 4th quarter.  They’re just not the same team on the highway. 

These Thursday night home teams have a huge advantage on these short weeks, and I don’t think that is being factored into the line here.  The home team is 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in Thursday games this season.  The only two teams that lost were the Giants and Cardinals, two of the worst teams in the NFL, and they were both underdogs to the Eagles and Broncos, respectively. 

Carolina is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games coming in.  The Steelers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four Thursday games.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games.  The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Panthers.  Bet the Steelers Thursday. 

20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Houston -3.5 

It’s no surprise the Houston Rockets have been playing winning basketball since James Harden returned to the lineup.  Having a healthy Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Cappella in the lineup has meant everything to this team.  They’ve been dominant with all three healthy, but just average with one or more of them missing. 

The Rockets have reeled off three straight wins, the last two since Harden returned, and he should be even more healthy now.  That’s especially the case since the Rockets have had two days’ rest coming into this game tonight having last played on Monday. 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in trouble.  They just lost Russell Westbrook to an ankle injury.  They were able to get by the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers last night without him, but now they’ll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, so they will be tired.  And they’re taking a huge step up in class here.  They have no chance of beating the Rockets without Westbrook. 

Houston is 18-7 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 4-1 SU on the road this season, playing their best basketball away from home.  Plus, Houston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine trips to Oklahoma City.  Take the Rockets Thursday. 

20* T’Wolves/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5 

The Lakers are rested and ready to go.  They had two days off since a home loss to Toronto on Sunday and will certainly be looking to put their best foot forward tonight.  That’s especially the case with revenge in mind following a 120-124 loss in Minnesota on October 29th just over a week ago. 

The Timberwolves are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and played the Clippers Monday in Los Angeles.  That means they have been staying in Los Angeles, which is always a huge distraction for any team.  It’s likely they went out and partied the last two nights if given the chance. 

The Timberwolves are just a team I do not trust.  They are 4-7 SU & 4-7 ATS this season, including 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS on the road, getting outscored by 12.2 points per game on the highway.  The Jimmy Butler trade rumors certainly have been a distraction for this team, and Butler continues to rest even though he probably doesn’t need it.  And they are missing starting PG Jeff Teague and don’t have an ample replacement. 

The Timberwolves are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 road games dating back to last season.  The Lakers will get their revenge tonight from that loss just over a week ago.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +8 

The love for the Toronto Raptors in the betting markets is getting out of hand.  They have become a big public team now with a 10-1 record on the season.  But with that record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are going to be tough to live up to moving forward. 

The Raptors are coming off back-to-back wins over the Lakers and Jazz on the road.  They will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  It’s uncertain if Kawhi Leonard will return to the lineup tonight, and they are missing key reserve Norman Powell as well.  I don’t think they’ll be as motivated to face the Kings as they were the Lakers and Jazz, and this is clearly a letdown spot for them. 

Sacramento, on the other hand, is getting no respect for its 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS start this season.  The Kings have been one of the biggest surprises in the league to this point, yet nobody is talking about them.  That’s why were are getting some extra value here with the Kings as 8-point home dogs to the Raptors tonight.  Plus, this will be just the 2nd game in 6 days for the Kings, so they’re rested and ready to go. 

Toronto is 44-72 ATS in its last 116 games following four or more consecutive wins.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Toronto) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 65-27 (70.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Kings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The Raptors are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 trips to Sacramento.  Roll with the Kings Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +9.5 

I was on the Mavericks last night and they came through with a 119-100 home victory over the Washington Wizards.  Part of the reason I was on them was because they had three days’ rest coming in.  So that will soften the blow on this back-to-back situation as they’ll still be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They should have plenty left in the tank for the Utah Jazz tonight. 

It’s shocking to see the Jazz as 9.5-point favorites tonight with the way they are playing.  This line is an overreaction from the news that Donovan Mitchell is expected to return from injury.  He won’t be 100%, and he’ll likely be on a minutes restriction.  The Jazz are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with three double-digit losses and three upset losses as favorites. 

The Mavs have gone on the road and played great in this role of road underdog already this season.  They only lost by 9 at Toronto as 11-point dogs, by 5 in overtime at San Antonio as 7-point dogs, and by 1 at the Lakers as 7.5-point dogs.  Those are their last three road games coming in, and those are results that make be believe they are the right side here as 9.5-point dogs to the Jazz. 

Dallas is 27-15 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Mavs are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Utah is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Mavs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the Mavericks Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -2 

The New York Knicks have impressed me with how competitive they’ve been in spite of their 3-8 record.  They are the better team in this matchup despite having a similar record to the Hawks (3-7).  And I’ll gladly lay only two points with them on the road here tonight. 

Four of New York’s eight losses have come by 6 points or less, including three by 2 points or fewer.  They are only getting outscored by 3.3 points per game on the season, which you would expect better than a 3-8 record with that margin.  Tim Hardaway has taken his game to the next level this season, and the Knicks are getting big contributions from Enes Kanter, Damyean Dotson, Alonzo Trier and Mario Hezonja.  And prized rookie Kevin Knox is expected to be back in the lineup tonight. 

The Hawks are worse than their 3-7 record would even indicate.  They are getting outscored by 9.6 points per game on the season.  They are in complete rebuilding mode.  And this is a tough spot for them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing in Charlotte last night. 

The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on zero rest.  Atlanta is 4-16 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 trips to Atlanta.  Take the Knicks Wednesday. 

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio -3.5 

The Ohio Bobcats will be max motivated tonight to beat the Miami Ohio Redhawks.  They are in 2nd place behind Buffalo in the MAC East division, and they need a win to keep pace with the Bulls.  A win this week would mean a win next week at home against Buffalo would put Ohio in 1st place in the MAC East and a trip to the MAC Championship Game. 

Miami Ohio had its make-or-break game last week against Buffalo.  The Redhawks played well, only losing 42-51 in that contest, but it was a dream-crushing loss.  The Redhawks and now 2.5 games behind Buffalo in the MAC East with zero chance to win the division because they’ve already lost the tiebreaker.  And certainly it’s going to be tough to recover from back-to-back brutal losses to Army and Buffalo by a combined 10 points.  They won’t get back up off the mat in time to stop this Ohio freight train. 

Freight train, indeed.  The Bobcats are absolutely rolling right now.  They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their only two losses straight up during this stretch came on the road at Cincinnati by 4 and at Northern Illinois by 3.  If you look at their last three games, you can tell the Bobcats are zoned in. 

Ohio beat Bowling Green 49-14 on October 20 as 16.5-point favorites and outgained them by 283 yards.  The Bobcats beat Ball State 52-14 as 10.5-point favorites on October 25th and outgained them by 312 years.  And then they went into Western Michigan last week and rolled 59-14 as 3-point favorites.  This team is simply on a mission right now and cannot be stopped. 

The Bobcats have probably the best quarterback in the MAC in Nathan Roarke, if it’s not Buffalo’s Tyree Jackson.  Roarked has a 17-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season while averaging 9.5 yards per attempt.  And he has been an unstoppable force on the ground, rushing for 637 yards and 7.3 per carry with eight touchdowns.  And his teammates will go to war with him any day. 

Ohio has made huge strides defensively after being awful on that side of the ball to start the season.  The Bobcats are holding their last three opponents to just 14.0 points and 275.3 yards per game.  Miami Ohio has been hit hard by injuries on defense, and that was on display last week with the 51 points and 505 total yards given up to Buffalo. 

Ohio has simply owned this series, going 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Bobcats have won four of those five meetings by 10 points or more.  Ohio is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to Miami.  They won 45-28 at home last year as 6.5-point favorites, and 17-7 on the road as 2-point favorites in 2016.  I think this domination continues given that both teams are going in opposite directions both in the win-loss column and mentally right now. 

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Miami Ohio) - after having lost two of their last three games against opponent after having won four of their last five games are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road favorites (Ohio) - after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against an opponent that allowed 37 points or more last game are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Ohio Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks +1.5 

Both the Dallas Mavericks and Washington Wizards have opened 2-7 this season.  However, I’ve been a lot more impressed with the Mavericks than the Wizards to this point, and I don’t think they should be home dogs because of it. 

The Mavericks are getting outscored by 6.0 points per game while the Wizards are getting outscored by 9.4 points per game on the season.  The Wizards don’t play any defense, allowing opponents to score 120.7 points per game on 47.5% shooting.  The Mavericks have been solid offensively at 110.8 points per game on 45.3% shooting. 

The Wizards are just 1-4 on the road this season with their only win coming by a single point.  They are getting outscored by 13.8 points per game on the road this year.  The Mavericks are 2-2 at home, scoring 116.2 points per game and only getting outscored by 2.8 points per game. 

The Mavericks simply own the Wizards.  Dallas is 15-1 SU in its last 16 meetings with Washington.  Yet the Mavericks are the underdogs in this matchup.  They won by 14 on the road and by 23 at home in their two meetings last season.  Roll with the Mavericks Tuesday. 

20* Kent State/Buffalo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Kent State +21.5 

Buffalo (8-1, 5-0 MAC) plays Ohio (6-3, 4-1 MAC) next week in the game that will decide the MAC East title.  The Bulls will certainly have that game in the back of their minds, knowing they could actually lose to Kent State and win next week and still capture the MAC East crown.  That’s a precarious spot to be in mentally, and I certainly don’t think the Bulls are capable of covering this massive 21-point spread given the situation. 

Kent State is a vastly improved team this year.  I know the record shows 2-7, but this is a team that scored just 12.8 points per game last year, which was the second-worst mark in college football.  Former Syracuse offensive coordinator Sean Lewis has turned the Golden Flashes into a much more competitive team this year, with an improved offense and an improved defense. 

Kent State is two 1-point losses away from behind 4-5 this year instead of 2-7.  They lost 23-25 to Akron as 5-point home dogs and 26-27 to Ohio as 11.5-point home dogs.  That effort against Ohio showed they could play with anyone in the MAC, because Ohio is as good as any of these MAC teams.  The Bobcats have been steamrolling everyone else of late. 

The weather conditions also make me like the underdog Golden Flashes.  It’s going to be a windy night in Buffalo with the average wind at 30 MPH.  There will be gusts up to 50 MPH.  That’s why the total on this game has dropped from 52 all the way down to 43.  And getting 21 points with a team with a total of only 43 is usually a great proposition. 

Both teams will be running the football almost exclusively to keep the clock moving and avoid making mistakes.  And Kent State has been solid at running the ball this year.  They are averaging 178 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  And they’ve been respectable at stopping the run, giving up 4.2 yards per carry against teams that normally average 4.4 per carry. 

Buffalo rushes for 173 yards per game and 4.3 per carry, numbers similar to Kent State but actually worse.  And Buffalo allows 3.9 per carry against teams that normally average 4.0 per carry.  So they haven’t faced too many good rushing offenses yet, meaning their defensive numbers are a bit skewed.  Tyree Jackson is clearly the better quarterback in this matchup for Buffalo, but his passing will almost be a non-factor. 

The road team is 9-1-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Golden Flashes are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six trips to Buffalo.  Bet Kent State Tuesday. 

15* Michigan State/Kansas ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +5.5 

The Kansas Jayhawks enter the 2018-19 campaign overvalued due to their No. 1 ranking in the country.  They are being asked to lay 5.5 points per to a Top 10 Michigan State team and I think it’s too much.  Especially when you consider the Spartans lost less than the Jayhawks did this offseason. 

The Jayhawks lose their top three scorers from last year in Devonte Graham (17.3 PPG), Svi Mykhailiuk (14.6 PPG) and Malik Newman (14.2 PPG).  No question they have recruited some talented guards to take their places, but it’s going to take some time.  No longer are the Jayhawks led by a veteran backcourt, which they seem to be every year. 

The Spartans only have two key losses in Miles Bridges (17.1 PPG) and Jaren Jackson (10.9 PPG).  But they have three double-digit scorers returning in Cassius Winston (12.6 PPG), Nick Ward (12.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG) and Joshua Langford (11.7 PPG).  They are loaded at the guard position unlike Kansas.  Having Ward opt out of the NBA Draft was huge for this team, and he’ll lead them down low. 

Michigan State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Kansas.  The Jayhawks are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Michigan State Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Nuggets OVER 207.5 

This is a very low total tonight.  I think there’s value with the OVER between the Celtics and Nuggets in this matchup.  I think the fact that the Nuggets have gone under the total in four straight is keeping this total lower than it should be. 

A quick look at the series history between these teams and it’s easy to see there’s value with the OVER.  In fact, each of the last six meetings between the Nuggets and Celtics have seen 214 or more combined points.  They’ve averaged 224.5 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is 17 points more than this 207.5-point total. 

The OVER is 15-4 in Nuggets last 19 games vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  The OVER is 4-1 in Celtics last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Denver is 49-29 to the OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday. 

20* Titans/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas -5 

The Cowboys can’t afford to fall further behind the Redskins in the NFC East, especially after losing to them last time out.  But they’ve had two weeks to recover after missing a potential game-tying field goal at the gun.  And I look for them to play with an attitude here Monday night against the Tennessee Titans. 

The vibes have to be pretty good in Dallas after management made a huge trade to get Amari Cooper.  The Cowboys had arguably the worst playmakers in the NFL at receiver prior to the trade, so Cooper is going to be worth a lot to this team.  And they’ve had nearly two weeks to get him acclimated to the offense. 

Having Cooper will help the play-action passing game flourish for sure.  Because the Cowboys are already great at running the ball, averaging 137 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  And they should have some success against a Titans defense that has allowed over 100 rushing yards in five of their seven games this season.  Plus, opposing teams like the Titans won’t be able to stack eight in the box to try and stop Zeke Elliott any more because the Prescott can make them pay. 

I really like this Dallas defense, though.  The Cowboys are giving up just 17.6 points and 313.7 yards per game this season.  They rank 2nd in scoring defense and 3rd in total defense this year.  That’s bad news for the Titans, who have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. 

Indeed, the Titans rank 30th in scoring offense (15.1 points/game) and 30th in total offense (280.9 yards/game).  Consider that only the Bills and Cardinals have been worse on offense, and those are two terrible offensives.  Those three units are far and away the three worst offenses in the league. 

Dallas has had some drastic home/road splits this season.  The Cowboys are 0-4 on the road, but 3-0 at home.  They are outscoring their opponents by 14.0 points per game in their three home games this year.  They are scoring 28.7 points per game and giving up just 14.7 points per game at home.  That’s why I’m not afraid to lay this big of a spread with the Cowboys as 5-point favorites.  They should have no problem winning by a touchdown or more. 

The Titans are very fortunate to be 3-4 this season.  All three of their wins came by exactly a field goal, and two of those were at home.  Their only road win came at Jacksonville in a huge letdown spot for the Jaguars off their win over the Patriots the previous week.  They also lost outright to both Miami and Buffalo on the road.  So I give them little chance of pulling off this upset, let alone staying within 5 points of the Cowboys. 

Dallas is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. poor offensive teams that average 285 or fewer yards per game.  The Cowboys are winning by 14.9 points per game on average in this spot.  Jason Garrett is 19-9 ATS vs. AFC opponents as the coach of the Cowboys.  The Titans are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Tennessee is 9-27-3 ATS in its last 39 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cowboys are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a bye week.  Dallas is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Cowboys Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have really turned the corner since their 0-4 start.  They have won four straight since, including a 134-111 win at Washington last time out on Friday.  That means they’ve had two days’ rest over the weekend to get ready to face the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. 

The Pelicans have gone the other direction.  They got out to a fast start at 4-0, but have since lost five straight.  And they’ve rarely been competitive in these five losses, losing four times by double-digits.  They are a banged-up team and a tired team right now as this will be their 5th straight road game, and their 7th game in 11 days. 

The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win.  The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Oklahoma City is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with New Orleans.  The Pelicans are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  Take the Thunder Monday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -1.5 

I won on the Packers last week fading the unbeaten Los Angeles Rams.  And I’m fading the Rams again this week.  They are simply overvalued due to their 8-0 record this season, and I’ve been fading them almost every week because of it.  No team is going to go 16-0, and this is the Rams’ best chance to lose a game to date when they have to travel to face the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome this week. 

The Rams have won four of their last five games by a touchdown or less and have gone 1-4 ATS in the process.  They are starting to show their vulnerabilities, and that 1-4 ATS run just shows how overvalued they’ve been.  Their four road wins have come against the Raiders, Seahawks, Broncos and 49ers.  They only beat the Seahawks by 2 and the Broncos by 3.  This will be by far the Rams’ stiffest road test to date. 

The Saints are winning with conviction of late.  They have reeled off six straight victories since their upset loss to the Bucs to open the season.  They have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Three of their last four wins have come by double-digits. 

The Saints are fresh after having a bye in Week 6.  They returned from that bye and went on the road to beat the Ravens and the Vikings, two impressive victories.  And now they return home to what will be a raucous home crowd Sunday afternoon with essentially first place on the line in the NFC. 

I think a big reason for the Rams’ recent struggles to put teams away is that they are simply getting tired.  They haven’t had their bye week yet and don’t get it until Week 12.  And after playing a dog fight against the Packers last week, I’m not sure what they’ll have left in the tank for the Saints this week. 

Todd Gurley has been a beast for the Rams this season.  But the Saints actually have what it takes to slow him down.  The Saints rank 1st in the NFL against the run this season, giving up just 74.1 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry.  It has been a big reason for their resurgence the last several weeks, and I look for it to be a key factor in why they win this game as well. 

The Saints are 8-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Rams are 30-62-1 ATS in their last 93 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  New Orleans is 24-5 ATS in its last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  When the Saints have to play a good team at home, they usually take care of business.  Finally, the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Bet the Saints Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +10 

The Sacramento Kings are not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are getting treated like they are the Kings from year’s past here catching double-digits to the Milwaukee Bucks today.  We’ll take advantage and back them until they are priced correctly. 

The Kings are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their nine games this season.  They have won and covered five straight, which includes three straight road victories by 10, 8 and 31 points.  They have a bunch of young talent that they’ve stockpiled in the past few drafts and it’s finally starting to pay off for this franchise. 

The Bucks are in a precarious spot here.  They opened the season 7-0 and then lost their first game last time out to the Celtics, who also beat them in the playoffs last year.  I think they will suffer a ‘hangover’ effect here off that huge game and off their first loss of the season.  I always like fading teams who are coming off a loss following a long winning streak because it’s like the wind is lifted from underneath their sails. 

Milwaukee is 0-8 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are only winning by 1.9 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Kings Sunday. 

15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore -2 

I realize the Steelers are going to want revenge from their 26-14 home loss to the Ravens earlier this season.  That is definitely a factor, but I don’t think the Steelers will be any more motivated than the Ravens.  In fact, I actually think Baltimore is the more motivated team coming into this game. 

The Ravens are coming off back-to-back losses to the Saints and Panthers, and there’s no shame in those two losses.  But sitting at 4-4 on the season compared to 4-2-1 for the Steelers, this is essentially a must-win game for the Ravens.  They can’t afford to fall further behind the Steelers if they want to win the division.  And knowing that they have a bye on deck next week, the Ravens will be ‘all in’ Sunday to try and go into their bye with a win and some momentum heading into the second half of the season. 

I think there’s value getting the Ravens here as less than a field goal favorite.  The Steelers are starting to get some respect because of their three-game winning streak coming in.  But they beat a Falcons team that had all kinds of injury issues, beat a Bengals team that they have simply owned over the past decade, and their other win came against Cleveland off their bye week.  Those three wins aren’t impressive at all. 

It’s pretty clear to me that despite having the worse record, the Ravens are actually the better of these two teams.  The Ravens are outgaining their opponents by 85 yards per game this season.  That’s one of the best marks in the NFL.  They are led by a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL scoring defense (17.1 PPG), 1st in total defense (293.8 yarsd/game) and 1st in yards per play (4.7) allowed.  They also have a vastly improved offense this season that ranks 14th in total offense (379.2 yards/game). 

The Steelers are also a good team, outgaining opponents by 58 yards per game.  While impressive, it isn’t as good as the Ravens, and it’s largely due to the lack of competitive over the last three weeks.  The Steelers still have all kinds of issues on defense.  They are 16th in scoring defense (24.6 PPG) and 16th in total defense (359.7 yards/game). 

Pittsburgh didn’t score a single point against Baltimore in three of the four quarters in their first meeting.  The Ravens won that game 26-14, and Joe Flacco had a monster day.  He completed 28-of-42 passes for 363 yards and two touchdowns int he win.  He clearly knows how to beat this soft Pittsburgh defense, and I look for the Ravens to hang another big number on the Steelers in the rematch. 

Mike Tomlin is 2-9 ATS in road games after covering the spread in four of their last five games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t been nearly as good on the road as he has been at home in his career.  He is only averaging 22.4 points per game on the road.  And he has a 55-to-40 TD/INT ratio on the road compared to a 107-to-40 ratio at home.  John Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game as the coach of Baltimore.  The Ravens are coming back to win by 10 points per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +10 

Betting on teams after they fire their head coach is usually a great spot to do so.  Teams get rejuvenated for one week with a new voice, and that should be the case here for the Cleveland Browns.  I love them catching nearly double-digits at home this week against the Kansas City Chiefs, and I expect one of their best efforts of the season here. 

The Chiefs are overvalued due to their 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS start to the season.  You’re starting to have to pay a tax on them.  I faded the Chiefs last week with success as they were 10-point favorites over the Broncos and won by 7.  I’m fading them again this week, this time as 10-point road favorites, but I like the Browns all the way down to +7 in this one if you can’t get the great line that I did. 

So we’ll ‘sell high’ on the Chiefs and ‘buy low’ on the Browns, who are coming off three straight losses.  But the Browns are 2-1-1 at home this season with their only loss to the Chargers.  They beat the Jets and Ravens, and tied the Steelers.  So they’ve already played two of the best teams in the AFC in the Ravens and Steelers and stood toe-to-toe with them at home. 

Greg Williams is a great defensive coordinator, and the Browns still have a very good defense.  Their problem has been against the run, but they’ve been good against the pass, making this a great matchup for them.  The Browns are holding opposing quarterbacks to just 6.7 yards per attempt against QB’s that average 7.6 yards per attempt, so they’re holding them 0.9 yards per attempt less than their season averages. 

The Browns should be able to really get their offense going this week against a Kansas City defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  Indeed, the Chiefs rank 31st in total defense, giving up 432.4 yards per game.  They are also 27th in yards per play (6.3) allowed.  That’s why the Chiefs can’t sustain this success is because they have a terrible defense.  And they have some key injuries on defense with Eric Berry doubtful, and starting LB’s Justin Houston and Anthony Hitchens questionable.  The Chiefs also give up 5.4 yards per carry while the Browns have been running the ball well, averaging 127 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  They can control the ball with their running game and keep Mahomes off the field. 

Kansas City is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in four consecutive games coming in.  It is actually losing outright by 1.7 points per game in this spot.  The Browns are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  There is a ton of value catching the Browns as more than TD home underdogs this weekend.  Take the Browns Sunday. 

15* BYU/Boise State ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU +13 

The Boise State Broncos are grossly overrated.  There’s no way they should be laying 13 points to a very good BYU team that is capable of hanging with the Broncos, and possibly pulling off the upset.  I’ll gladly take the value with the road underdog in this rivalry. 

The Broncos have gone just 4-2 SU & 2-3-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only had one real solid performance during this stretch, which was their 34-14 win at Wyoming as 15.5-point favorites where they outgained a bad Cowboys team by 211 total yards.  Other than that, they have actually been outgained in three of their last six games.  And they pushed in a 48-38 win at Air Force last week as 10-point favorites while only outgaining them by 87 yards.  And they won 31-27 at Nevada as 14.5-point favorites in a game where they only outgained the Wolf Pack by 120 yards. 

BYU comes in undervalued off its 6-7 upset home loss to Northern Illinois last week as 6.5-point favorites. But that’s a very good NIU team whose only losses this season have come to Iowa, Utah and Florida State.  And keep in mind that BYU had a bye heading into that game, so they will still be fresh and ready to go against Boise State this week. 

I also look for the Cougars to be max motivated against their rivals here needing two more wins to get bowl eligible.  They still have a road game at Utah in the season finale, so they’ll be playing with a sense of urgency, especially after blowing a golden opportunity to beat NIU last week.  They outgained the Huskies by 97 yards and really should have won. 

The Broncos have lost their home-field advantage.  They are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Boise State is 1-8 ATS in home games after committing zero turnovers in their previous game over the last three seasons.  Brian Harsin is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Boise State, actually losing outright by 0.9 points per game on average in this spot. 

The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, which includes an outright win as 23.5-point dogs at Wisconsin earlier this year.  BYU is also 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  Bet BYU Saturday.  

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Denver Nuggets -4 

The Denver Nuggets are off to a 7-1 start this season.  They are on a mission early to give themselves a cushion after missing out on the playoffs with an overtime loss to the Timberwolves in the final game of the regular season last year. 

The Utah Jazz are in a tough spot here Saturday.  They are coming off a 100-110 home loss to the Memphis Grizzlies last night.  So they’ll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days tonight. 

Making matters worse for the Jazz is the injury situation.  Donovan Mitchell sat out last night with a hamstring injury, and Alec Burks was out with a hand injury.  It’s unlikely that they get Mitchell back tonight as he’s listed as questionable.  And they just aren’t the same team without him.  If he does play he’ll be much less than 100%. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Nuggets have won four straight home meetings with the Jazz by 8, 24, 10 and 14 points, respectively.  That’s an average win by 14 points per game.  Take the Nuggets Saturday. 

15* Alabama/LSU CBS No-Brainer on LSU +14.5 

For starters, this is the largest home underdog role for a Top 4 team in the country ever.  LSU has lost by double-digits only once at home in the past decade.  And there’s nothing like a night game in Baton Rouge.  So the Tigers have everything going for them here as 14.5-point home underdogs to Alabama Saturday night. 

No question what Alabama has done so far has been mighty impressive.  They are not only winning, they are winning big.  But with that 8-0 record and all those blowout wins comes expectations from oddsmakers that are tough to live up to.  And we’ve seen that recently with the Crimson Tide going 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall coming in. 

The problem I have with Alabama is that they haven’t faced any real good teams yet.  The best opponent they played was Texas A&M, and they played them at home.  They won by 22 as 23.5-point favorites, failing to cove the spread.  Alabama has faced just two Top 50 teams all season and have played the 60th-toughest schedule in the country. 

Conversely, LSU has played the 6th-toughest schedule in the country.  They’ve already played five Top 30 teams.  And they have gotten through that gauntlet at 7-1.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  The Tigers will certainly be playing the disrespect and underdog cards leading up to this game, which works in their favor big-time, especially with the home crowd on their side. 

This will easily be Alabama’s toughest test of the season to date, and it’s not really even close.  LSU has gone 4-1 against those five Top 30 teams with road wins over Miami and Auburn, and home wins over Georgia and Mississippi State.  That 36-16 beat down of Georgia was really impressive as they outgained the Bulldogs by 158 yards and gained 475 total yards on offense.  And they avoided the letdown the next week with an equally impressive 19-3 win over Mississippi State. 

No question the Crimson Tide have the edge on offense with better quarterback play, but this LSU offense is getting it done and has been better than in year’s past.  And the Tigers actually have the better defense this year because they’ve put up nearly identical numbers to Alabama despite facing the tougher schedule.  They are giving up just 15.1 points per game.  They are holding opposing quarterbacks to 50.6% completions and just 200 passing yards per game.  They have what it takes to slow down this Alabama offensive freight train. 

Ed Orgeron is 10-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt as the coach of LSU.  The Tigers are winning by 19 points per game in this spot having never lost against the spread.  That perfect record continues here this weekend as the Tigers get the cover and possibly pull off the upset.  Roll with LSU Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana Tech +23.5 

This could not be a worse spot for Mississippi State.  The Bulldogs are coming off a huge 28-13 home win over Texas A&M last week after playing LSU, Auburn, Florida and Kentucky in their previous five games.  And now they step out of conference to face LA Tech with a game against Alabama looming on deck next week.  This is a sandwich spot if I’ve ever seen one. 

We’ve seen these SEC teams fail to cover time and time again in these sandwich spots when they step out of conference.  And I don’t expect to get the best effort from Mississippi State here.  The Bulldogs will be just looking to get out of Starkville with a win.  They won’t be concerned at all about covering this massive 23.5-point spread. 

Louisiana Tech went into LSU and gave the Tigers a run for their money earlier this season.  They lost 21-38 as 19.5-point underdogs, covering the spread.  But that was a 21-24 game in the second half before the Tigers tacked on two late touchdowns to pull away.  And LSU beat Mississippi State 19-3 in their meeting just two weeks ago.  So LA Tech is catching more points here against Mississippi State than they were against LSU.  That fact alone shows there’s value, even without considering the awful situational spot for Mississippi State. 

And this is one of the better teams Skip Holtz has had at Louisiana Tech.  They are 6-2 this season with their only losses coming to LSU and UAB, which may be the best team in Conference USA.  Those teams are a combined 14-2 this season 

I love backing Skip Holtz as an underdog.  In fact, Holtz is 21-7 ATS in his last 28 games as a head coach as a road underdog.  LA Tech is 6-0 ATS in road games off a conference game over the last two seasons.  LA Tech is 8-1 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last three years.  LA Tech is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. SEC opponents.  LA Tech is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 road games.  Take Louisiana Tech Saturday. 

15* Notre Dame/Northwestern ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +9.5 

We see this year after year with Notre Dame.  They’ll get off to a hot start and get into the playoff conversation before shitting the bed down the stretch.  The Fighting Irish are now ranked No. 4 in the initial college football playoff rankings.  They have expectations now, and those expectations are very tough for them to live up to.  Notre Dame is just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games in the month of November. 

That has proven to be the case in their last two games as the Fighting Irish have failed to cover the massive spreads.  They only won 19-14 as 21-point home favorites against Pittsburgh two games ago.  And last week they won 44-22 as 22.5-point favorites over Navy, failing to cover against a Navy team that is way down this year. 

And that Navy game also figures into this handicap.  Teams don’t tend to do well the following week after facing a triple-option team.  Those are physical games where the defense gets cut-blocked continuously.  That’s especially the case for Notre Dame over the years after facing Navy.  In fact, the Fighting Irish are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after facing Navy. 

Just bet the underdog in Northwestern games this season and you’d be a perfect 9-0 ATS.  The Wildcats always rise to the occasion in the role of the dog, and fail to meet expectations as a favorite.  That could just be a reflection of head coach Pat Fitzgerald.  He’s able to get his players up for these big games, and that has been the case all season for the Wildcats. 

Indeed, Northwestern 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and 0-5 ATS as a favorite.  They won at Purdue 31-27 as 1-point underdogs.  They only lost 17-20 at home to Michigan as 14.5-point dogs.  They won 29-19 at Michigan State as 10.5-point road underdogs.  And last week they upset Wisconsin 31-17 as 4.5-point home dogs. 

The Wildcats have a strong defense that is holding opponents to just 23.6 points per game this season.  And Clayton Thorsen has put the offense on his shoulders and really improved his draft stock with what he has been able to do against these good teams.  He has led the Wildcats to four straight victories in Big Ten play and certainly will be relishing the opportunity of trying to knock off unbeaten Notre Dame. 

The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in the month of November.  Northwestern is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Fitzgerald is 9-2 ATS off three straight conference wins as the coach of Northwestern.  Don’t be surprised if the Wildcats pull off another upset here, but 9.5 points is simply too much either way.  Roll with Northwestern Saturday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Celtics -3 

The Boston Celtics have reeled off four straight wins while covering the spread in three of them.  They will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days tonight so they’ll be fresh and ready to go.  Look for a big effort from them here against the Indiana Pacers. 

The Pacers are far from fresh.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They were fortunate to win their last two games, pulling away late to beat the Knicks 107-101, and barely escaping with a 107-105 win as 7-point favorites in Chicago last night.  They’ll get it handed to them here by the Celtics. 

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series of late.  The road team is actually 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Celtics are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Indiana. 

The Celtics are 17-4 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Boston is 42-17 ATS in its last 59 Saturday games.  Bet the Celtics Saturday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU +14 

The Houston Cougars are coming off a huge win over ranked and previously unbeaten South Florida last week.  They now have a two-game lead for first place in the West Division.  This is now a massive letdown spot for the Cougars, and that’s not being priced into the line here.  They should not be 14-point road favorites over SMU this week. 

The Mustangs are the team that trails Houston by two games in the division, so they will be max motivated to get a win here and stay alive.  And I really like the way this SMU team is playing coming in.  They are 3-2 in their last five games with a home win over Navy and a road win at Tulane.  Their only two losses came to UCF and Cincinnati, who teams who are a combined 15-1 this season.  And they only lost in overtime to Cincinnati. 

SMU only lost 22-35 on the road at Houston last year.  And SMU pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season at home against Houston in 2016.  They came in as 23.5-point underdogs and won 38-16, covering the spread by 45.5 points.  The Mustangs are live underdogs in this game here Saturday as well. 

The Cougars are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on field turf.  Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  The Cougars are simply overvalued right now and in a very tough spot here against the Mustangs.  They’re getting way too much respect for their win over an overrated South Florida team last week.  Roll with SMU Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida -6 

The Missouri Tigers beat up on weak competition and lose to good competition.  The Tigers went 1-13 in 2016 and 2017 against bowl teams.  And this year they have folded against the best competition.  They are 0-4 in SEC play this year and I’m not expecting them to pick up their first conference win of the season this week at Florida. 

Drew Lock has a 24-to-29 TD/INT ratio against Power 5 teams that make it to a bowl game, but a 61-to-8 ratio in all other games in his career.  Lock has a 1-to-5 ratio in SEC play this season and an 11-to-1 ratio against non-conference opponents.  Lock is also 0-9 SU against Top 25 teams in his career. 

I think this is a worse spot for Missouri this week than Florida.  The Tigers are coming off a gut-wrenching last-second loss to Kentucky.  The final score showed 14-15, but the Tigers were actually outgained in that game by 136 total yards.  Lock and the offense were held to just 239 total yards against a good Kentucky defense, one that’s similar to the one they will be up against this weekend at Florida. 

Certainly the Gators won’t be feeling too hot after tier 17-36 loss to Georgia in the Cocktail Party.  But they still have big aspirations and can have a 10-win season if they win out while making a New Year’s Six Bowl.  And they should be favorites in the rest of their games to do so. 

Keep in mind that Florida had a bye before the Georgia game, so they are still fresh.  And Dan Mullen is one of my favorite head coaches in the country.  Considering this is his first year with the program, he won’t let this team quit on their season.  He’ll get the most out of them and I expect the Gators to show up this week and handle their business against Missouri. 

Another reason they should show up is because they were embarrassed 16-45 at Missouri last year.  Obviously that was a completely different Florida team with suspensions and injuries, but many of these players have not forgotten that loss.  They want to put a beat down on Missouri similar to the 40-14 thrashing they put on the Tigers in Gainesville in 2016. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Missouri) - with a good offense that averages 450 or more total yards per game, after being outgained by 125 or more yards in their previous game are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Tigers didn’t have a single first down in the second half against Kentucky last week.  They’ll struggle to get anything going against what may be the fastest defense in the SEC in the Gators this week.  Take Florida Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas -2 

The West Virginia Mountaineers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 6-1 start this season.  They have played the 59th-toughest schedule in the country, and that easy schedule is the reason for their fast start.  But we’ve seen this time and time again with Dana Holorsen teams.  When the competition gets tougher, the Mountaineers fold. 

West Virginia still has Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State and TCU remaining on the schedule.  Their toughest game thus far was a trip to Iowa State.  They lost 30-14 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score even showed.  They were outgained by 346 yards by the Cyclones and held to just 152 yards of total offense.  They have played the rest of the worst teams in the Big 12 up to this point. 

Texas has been through the gauntlet already while facing the 18th-toughest schedule in the country.  They handed Oklahoma their only loss of the season.  I am not concerned with their loss to Oklahoma  State last week.  I think they’ll bounce back in a big way knowing that if they run the table, they will win the Big 12 regular season title and beat headed to the conference championship game.  They’ll be 100% focused and ready to go Saturday knowing that WVU is likely their biggest threat to play Oklahoma in the title game. 

The Mountaineers have played just two true road games this season.  They barely won at Texas Tech and were thoroughly outplayed by Iowa State.  Texas is 4-0 at home this season and holding opponents to just 17 points per game.  They have a defense the caliber of Iowa State’s that can give Will Grier fits as well.  This will be Grier’s stiffest test of the season to date. 

I also think West Virginia is getting too much respect from its home blowout win over Baylor last week.  But the Bears basically gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 4-0.  And Holgorsen is 5-19 ATS off a game where they forced three or more turnovers as the coach of West Virginia. 

Texas is 8-1 ATS vs. teams who average 8.5 or more passing yards per attempt over the last three seasons.  The Longhorns are 11-3 ATS vs. teams who score 37 or more points per game over the last three years.  They usually step up against good offensive teams like West Virginia.  That will be the case again this weekend.  West Virginia is 0-7 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  Take Texas Saturday. 

25* Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 

Georgia Southern is coming off one of the biggest wins in program history.  They beat Appalachian State 34-14 to take the lead in their division last week.  And now they have a huge game on deck against Troy next week.  This is clearly a sandwich spot for them, and I don’t expect them to show up at all. 

That was a misleading win over Appalachian State, too.  The Eagles won outright as 11-point underdogs.  But they had a huge advantage after star App State QB Zac Thomas was knocked out with an injury on the first series.  Their backup quarterbacks combined for five turnovers the rest of the way to basically gift-wrap the victory for Georgia Southern. 

Louisiana-Monroe comes in at 4-4 on the season and in need of a victory if they want to get bowl eligible. Three of their losses have come to Troy, Texas A&M and Ole Miss.  They are coming off a bye week as well, so they’ve had two full weeks to prepare for Georgia Southern’s option offense.  I always like backing teams who have extra prep time against option offenses.  It’s safe to say that this couldn’t be a better spot for the Warhawks. 

Louisiana-Monroe is 6-1 ATS in its last seven November games.  The Warhawks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  This game really doesn’t matter to Georgia Southern at all because if they win next week against Troy, they will win the East division and head to the Sun Belt title game.  Conversely, Monroe is tied for first place in the West and needs this win more if they want to be serious contenders.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday. 

15* GA Tech/UNC ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Tech -6 

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have really turned the corner here of late.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with blowout wins over Bowling Green (63-17), Louisville (66-31) and Virginia Tech (49-28) with the latter two coming on the road.  Their only loss came to a Duke team that was coming off a bye week. 

I have a good feeling the Yellow Jackets are going to put UNC out of its misery here.  The Tar Heels are just 1-7 on the season with nothing to play for now.  They have suffered some tough close losses of late and I just don’t know how much more they can handle.  I think they’ve hit their breaking point now that they’ve officially been eliminated from bowl contention.   

Meanwhile, Georgia Tech still needs two more wins for bowl eligibility.  And with Miami and Georgia still on the schedule, the Yellow Jackets are looking at this like a must-win game here against the Tar Heels.  So they should be max motivated.  Plus, the Yellow Jackets get extra time to prep after playing last Thursday, while UNC played on Saturday.  That’s a hidden rest and prep advantage here for Georgia Tech. 

Georgia Tech beat UNC 33-7 as 8-point home favorites last season.  The Yellow Jackets have rushed for 300-plus yards in nine of their last 10 meetings with the Tar Heels.  They should have their way on the ground again against a UNC defense that is allowing 191 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season. 

Georgia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog.  The Yellow Jackets are 9-1 ATS after gaining 125 or fewer passing yards in three straight games over the past two seasons.  Georgia Tech is 6-0 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that allow 31 or more points per game over the last three years. 

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UNC) - after having lost five or six of their last seven games against an opponent that’s won three of their last four games are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Plays on road favorites (Georgia Tech) - after outfighting opponent by 100 or more yards in three straight games against an opponent that was outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -6 

The Dallas Mavericks will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight over the New York Knicks.  The Mavericks have to feel snake bitten because they’ve lost five straight coming in, but all five were by dsingle-digits, and four of them were on the road. 

The Mavericks took the Spurs to overtime and lost on a last-second free throw by Lebron James on the road at the Lakers in their last two games.  But the Mavs are 2-1 at home this season and will be glad to be back at home against arguably the worst team they’ve faced yet this season in the Knicks. 

The Knicks are just 2-6 on the season as well.  Their two wins have come against the Hawks and Nets, and both were at home.  Those are two of the worst teams in the NBA.  I don’t give them much of a chance of even being competitive against a motivated Mavericks team here on the road tonight. 

Dallas has won 17 of its last 21 home meetings with New York.  The Knicks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. Western Conference opponents.  New York is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Dallas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the Mavericks Friday. 

20* Thunder/Wizards ESPN No-Brainer on Washington -2.5 

The Washington Wizards will be highly motivated for a victory Friday night.  They sit at just 1-6 on the season and in need of a victory.  They have played five of their first seven games on the road, and their two home games resulted in losses by a combined 5 points to Toronto and Miami. 

But the Wizards are in a great situational spot here.  They come in on two days’ rest having last played in Memphis on Tuesday.  So they will be fresh and ready to go.  I think we get the best effort of the season from the Wizards tonight because of it. 

Conversely, this is an awful spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They used a lot of energy erasing a double-digit deficit in the second half last night to beat the Bobcats 111-107.  They won’t have much left in the tank come the second half in this one. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Wizards are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home meetings with the Thunder.  The Thunder are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. 

Plays on any team (Washington) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 70-29 (70.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Wizards Friday. 

20* Pitt/Virginia ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +7.5 

Virginia is in a spot it is not used to here Friday night against Pitt.  The Cavaliers are now the hunted and not the hunters after a 6-2 start to the season.  They have already clinched bowl eligibility and are ranked for the first time since 2011.  That’s a huge accomplishment for a program that has had just one winning season since 2008. 

But now the Cavaliers have to deal with expectations.  And they will surely be getting serenaded in the media all week leading up to this game.  I can’t help but think they will not put forth their best effort given what they have just accomplished.  I look for them to come out flat, which is going to make it difficult for them to cover this 7.5-point spread against Pitt. 

The Pitt Panthers will show up because they are fighting to make a bowl.  They sit at just 4-4 this season with three road games in their last four to close.  They may not be favored in any of the four games.  So they have to give it their all to try and scrape out two wins to get to a bowl.  And it’s clearly to me they’ve already started to fight with how well they’ve played the last three weeks. 

Pitt is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall despite being an underdog in all three games.  The Panthers upset Syracuse 44-37 as 3-point home dogs.  They then gave Notre Dame all they wanted in a 14-19 road loss at 21-point dogs.  And last week they beat Duke 54-45 as 2.5-point home dogs.  If that’s not an impressive run then I don’t know what is. 

The problem with asking Virginia to lay points is that they just don’t have that good of an offense.  They have been held to 28 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall.  The only exceptions were the 45 they scored against an awful Ohio defense and the 31 against a bad UNC defense.  Pitt will offer some resistance here, and they’ll certainly be able to put up some points with an offense that is clicking right now. 

Pitt is 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in five meetings with Virginia over the past five seasons as ACC opponents.  The only loss came by 5 by a final of 19-24 as 5-point underdogs.  Pitt beat Virginia 31-14 at home last season, 45-31 on the road in 2016, and 26-19 at home in 2015. 

The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.  Pitt is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  Virginia is 14-28 ATS in its last 42 games after having won four of its last five games coming in.  I don’t think the Cavaliers will handle all the hype they’re getting right now very well.  And I know we’ll get a big effort from Pitt, which should be good enough to cover this 7.5-point spread regardless of whether or not Virginia shows up.  Bet Pittsburgh Friday.

15* Pelicans/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -4 

I love the situation for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They had yesterday off and will be highly motivated for revenge on the Pelicans after getting swept by them in the playoffs last year.  Look for them to step up in a big way tonight and get a win and cover. 

They catch the Pelicans in a great spot, too.  New Orleans will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days.  And they are coming off a loss to the Warriors last night, so they won’t be nearly as motivated to play the Pelicans, a team they swept in the playoffs. 

It’s almost always a good move to fade a team after they play the defending champs.  But the Pelicans also have a ton of injury concerns right now with Elfrid Payton and Darius Miller questionable after sitting out last night, and Anthony Davis playing through injury last night.  It’s no surprise that the Pelicans have lost three straight coming in by a combined 36 points due to their injury situation. 

The Blazers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Thursday games.  Portland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Blazers are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 home games overall.  Portland is 41-19-4 ATS in its last 64 games following a win.  Roll with the Blazers Thursday. 

15* Raiders/49ers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on OVER 45.5 

We have the 1-7 San Francisco 49ers against the 1-6 Oakland Raiders Thursday night.  It’s two teams who have little to play for but pride the rest of the way.  And I certainly like backing OVERS in games when this is the case.  The offenses almost always show up in these primetime games between bad teams, but whether or not the defenses show up is another story. 

And it’s not like either of these two teams have played much defense up to this point, especially Oakland.  The Raiders are giving up 31.1 points and 407.4 yards per game this season.  The 49ers are allowing 29.5 points and 364.4 yards per game. 

Both offenses have actually been pretty good.  The Raiders are averaging 369.7 yards per game and the 49ers 348.2 yards per game.  Derek Carr is still having a solid season, and with the Raiders losing Marshawn Lynch, he’s actually had to throw more.  That means more points and more clock stoppages without the threat of a running game.   

The 49ers have put up some very good offensive showings against the Chargers and Packers even with CJ Beathard at quarterback.  They had 27 points against the Chargers and 30 against the Packers.  They did not play well against the Rams or Cardinals in the other games that Beathard has started, but now they are up against the worst defense they’ve faced this season in the Raiders tonight.  They should have one of their best offensive outputs of the season. 

I realize the 49ers have some injuries on offense, and the Raiders traded away Amari Cooper, but I’m not worried.  The Raiders have such a bad defense that even though they’re healthy they still can’t stop anyone.  And the 49ers have worse injuries on defense than on offense.  They are missing SS Jaquiski Tartt and starting LB Reuben Foster, not to mention CB Richard Sherman is questionable. 

Plays on the OVER on any team against the total (San Francisco) - in non-conference games, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival.  The OVER is 18-6-3 in Raiders last 27 games in November.  The OVER is 8-0 in Raiders last eight games in Week 9.  The OVER is 8-3 in 49ers last 11 games overall, including 4-1 in they last five home games.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Temple/UCF ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Temple +11 

The UCF Knights are ranked 12th in the initial playoff rankings.  They are getting respect for going 13-0 last season and 7-0 this season for a 20-0 record over the past two years.  And with that record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are going to be tough to live up to moving forward.  I don’t think the Knights should be 11-point favorites over Temple in this game. 

The problem I have with UCF is that they have played nobody.  They have faced the 125th-ranked schedule in the country.  Their seven wins have come against UConn, South Carolina State, FAU, Pitt, SMU, Memphis and ECU.  They best opponent there was probably Memphis and they only won that game 31-30 as 4.5-point road favorites.  I have no doubt Temple is the best team they will have faced yet. 

The Temple Owls have been one of the most underrated teams in the country over the past few seasons.  That’s evident by the fact that they are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  They have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six games this season as they have been a completely different team since their 0-2 start. 

Temple has won five of its last six games with its only loss coming at Boston College 35-45, but covered the 13-point spread.  The Owls outgained five of those six opponents, so there was nothing fluky about the run.  They also won outright as 16-point dogs at Maryland 35-14 while covering by 37 points.  They have played very well on the road this season and certainly will be up for this game to knock off an unbeaten, ranked squad in UCF here. 

UCF QB McKenzie Milton actually had to sit out last game against ECU with an ankle injury and is questionable to return this week.  All signs are that Milton will play but not at 100%.  The Tigers were outgained by ECU and they were also outgained the previous week by Memphis.  Their defense gave up 496 yards to ECU and 490 yards to Memphis.  It’s their defense that is the biggest reason it will be difficult to beat Temple by double-digits Thursday night. 

The Owls are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 conference games.  Temple is 41-18 ATS in its last 59 road games.  The Owls are 10-1 ATS vs. good rushing teams who average 230 or more yards per game over rate last three years.  Temple is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Owls are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games off a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers.  The UCF winning streak may come to an end here this week.  Bet Temple Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2 

The Pistons will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after a hard-fought 105-108 loss in Boston last night.  I expect a poor showing from them tonight in Brooklyn against a Nets team that had yesterday off and will be highly motivated for a victory. 

The Nets have lost three straight to fall to 2-5 this season.  But they are better than their record.  Three of their losses came by 2, 3 and 6 points at New Orleans, at Detroit and vs. Golden State, respectively.  So they also want revenge from their 100-103 loss at Detroit as 6-point dogs in the opener. 

The Pistons are overrated due to their 4-2 start this season.  But their four wins came against the Nets, Bulls, 76ers, and Cavs with three of those at home.  They have lost to the best team the’ve faced in the Celtics twice for their two defeats.  And this Brooklyn team has already made me a lot of money and will continue to do so this season because they are way underrated. 

The Pistons are 5-19 ATS in road games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Brooklyn is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 6-2 ATS in the last eight home meetings with the Pistons.  Bet the Nets Wednesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder should be highly motivated for a win tonight after a 1-4 start to the season.  Getting them as only 2-point home favorites over the Clippers just shows how much they’ve been downgraded in everyone’s power rankings.  This is the perfect ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Thunder. 

It’s also a great ‘sell high’ spot for the Clippers.  They are off to a 4-2 start this season and coming off back-to-back blowout victories over the Rockets and Wizards.  I think they’ll fail to meet the lofty expectations they have now earned in the eyes of the oddsmakers tonight. 

The Thunder also want revenge from a 92-108 road loss to the Clippers back on October 19th less than two weeks ago.  But Russell Westbrook sat out that game due to injury, and that injury is a big reason for their early struggles.  Westbrook is back healthy now and ready to help get this thing turned around in OKC. 

The Thunder are 72-46 ATS in their last 118 games after having lost three of their last four games coming in.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Oklahoma City. 

Plays on favorites (OKC) - after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points against an opponent that’s coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday. 

15* Miami Ohio/Buffalo MAC No-Brainer on Miami Ohio +7.5 

The Miami Ohio Redhawks need a win here Tuesday to keep their bowl hopes alive.  They sit at just 3-5 on the season, but 3-1 in MAC play and only one game out of first place in the MAC East.  They can move into a tie with Buffalo, tonight’s opponent, with an upset win Tuesday.  It’s safe to say they will be ‘all in’ to try and win this game tonight given the situation. 

I like how this Redhawks team has responded following a tough start to the season with three consecutive non-conference losses to Marshall, Cincinnati and Minnesota.  They have gone 3-2 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their two losses came by a single point each with a 39-40 home loss to Western Michigan and a 30-31 road loss to Army.  And now they’re catching 7.5 points against Buffalo. 

The Bulls are 7-1 this season and getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers because of it.  But they do have a common opponent with Miami Ohio in Army, and Buffalo lost that game 13-42 at home as 7-point favorites.  As stated before, Miami Ohio only lost by a single point at Army when they played them last time out. 

While Buffalo may have a slight edge on offense, Miami has a clear edge on defense.  The Redhawks are holding opponents to 48 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages.  The Bulls are holding their opponents to just one yard less than their season average and are dead even in yards per play based on what their opponents average this season.  I think this is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would suggest. 

Miami Ohio is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Buffalo.  The Redhawks won 24-14 as 3-point home favorites in 2017, 35-24 as 10-point road favorites in 2016, and lost only 24-29 as 7-point home dogs in 2015. 

The Redhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.  Miami Ohio is 4-1 ATS in its lsat five road games.  The Bulls are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a bye week.  Chuck Martin is 13-5 ATS in conference road games as the coach of the Redhawks.  Roll with Miami Ohio Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Celtics UNDER 210 

This is one of my favorite situations to bet an UNDER.  The Celtics and Pistons just played each other in Detroit on October 27th.  They combined for just 198 points in a 109-89 road win for Boston.  And now this total has been set at 210 points for the rematch just a few days later, and I think there’s value with the UNDER. 

The reason these situations are so good is because both teams are familiar with each other having just played.  And both teams have had two days off since that game, so all they’ve been doing is preparing for each other in practice.  And that certainly favors the defenses. 

Boston is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  The Celtics are holding opponents to just 96.3 points per game on 40.8% shooting.  But they have yet to get their offense going, averaging just 101.5 points per game on 41.4% shooting.  They will control this game playing at home. 

The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 208 or fewer points in four of the five.  Detroit is 14-3 UNDER in a road game where the total is 200 to 210 over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 55-23-3 in Pistons last 81 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Celtics last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six home games. 

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 210 (Boston) - after allowing 90 points or less against opponent after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games are 30-7 (81.1%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Patriots/Bills AFC East ANNIHILATOR on New England -13.5 

I rarely take double-digit favorites in the NFL.  In fact, I can’t remember the last time I took a double-digit road favorite.  That being said, I think the Patriots can cover this 13.5-point spread at Buffalo this week.  The Bills are the new Cleveland Browns of the NFL this season, especially without Josh Allen at quarterback. 

Allen injured his elbow two weeks ago against the Texans with the Bills actually leading late.  Nathan Peterman came in and through one of his patented pick-six’s, and the rest was history.  The Bills new they couldn’t even be competitive with Peterman, so they signed Derek Anderson out of retirement. 

That experiment didn’t work either.  The Bills were routed 37-5 at Indianapolis last week and committed five turnovers.  Anderson is expected to get the start again this week, and while he should be a little sharper, I don’t think he stands much of a chance of making the Bills competitive.  Especially not against a team that caliber of the Patriots. 

The Patriots have been a juggernaut ever since opening 1-2.  They added Josh Gordon and got Julian Edelman back from suspension, and their offense has taken off.  The Patriots are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their only non-cover was a 3-point win over the Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites. 

The Patriots have scored at least 38 points in four consecutive games while averaging 39.3 points per game during this span.  I think they can get to 38-plus here against the Bills, which should be more than enough to cover this 13.5-point spread. 

The Bills are dead last in scoring offense at 11.6 points per game and 31st in total offense at 234.0 yards per game.  I just don’t see how they can possibly generate enough offense with Anderson at quarterback and the worst receivers in the NFL to hang with the Patriots. 

The Patriots are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Buffalo.  They have won their last three meetings with the Bills by 21, 20 and 16 points.  And those were better Buffalo teams than this 2018 version.  New England is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games.  The Patriots are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a losing record.  There will be no letdown for Tom Brady and company on Monday Night Football.  Bet the Patriots Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +11.5 

The Golden State Warriors are in a very tough early scheduling spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days tonight.  Players aren’t as in shape early in the season as they are later in the year, so this tough early scheduling spots have more of an impact. 

I don’t think we see a very good effort from the Warriors tonight as a result.  Their four stars in Stepen Curry (36:16), Klay Thompson (33:35), Kevin Durant (39:08) and Draymond Green (36:19) all played big minutes against the Nets last night.  Steve Kerr will surely limit their minutes tonight if possible, and that means more minutes for what is one of the worst benches in the league. 

The Bulls had yesterday off and should be fresh and ready to go.  They will be laying it all on the line with the defending champion Warriors coming to town.  I know the Bulls have some injury issues right now, but that didn’t stop them from winning two of their last three games in upset fashion, including a 97-85 win in Atlanta as 5.5-point dogs on Saturday.  Zach LaVine and Jabari Parker have really taken on bigger roles and are excelling in them. 

Chicago is 12-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 11-22 ATS off three or more consecutive wins over the last three years.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit win.  The home team is 23-8-1 ATS in the last 32 meetings. 

Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (Golden State) - playing on back-to-back days, in the first half of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS since 1996.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Golden State) - a team that had a winning record last season, off four or more consecutive wins are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1996.  The Warriors are simply overvalued right now given the spot and situation.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Timberwolves UNDER 240.5 

This total has gotten out of hand tonight.  I think there’s value backing the UNDER because of it.  This total is inflated because the Lakers have their guys back from suspension.  But they aren’t going to be this poor defensively all season because Lebron James simply won’t stand for it. 

Andrew Wiggins has missed the last two games for the Timberwolves and is questionable to return from a quad injury tonight.  And Minnesota isn’t getting much done on offense right now.  They are averaging just 100.3 points per game in their last three games coming in. 

The Lakers and Timberwolves have combined for 230 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of the last eight meetings.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 240.5-point total set.  They have averaged 219.8 combined points per game in their last eight meetings, which is roughly 21 points less than this total. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or more in a game involving two bad teams who win 25% to 40% of their games are 58-24 (70.7%) since 1996.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Timberwolves last seven games when playing on two days’ rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets +10.5 

The Nets should be a pretty big money maker this season.  They have improved greatly each season in the three years under Kenny Atkinson and this year should be no different.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA and have been stockpiling talent through the draft.  I like what I’ve seen from this team thus far. 

The Nets are just 2-3 but two of their losses came by a combined 5 points on the road to Detroit (100-103) and at previously unbeaten New Orleans (115-117).  They have played four of their first five games on the road this season with their lone home game resulting in a win over the Knicks. 

The Warriors are overvalued after covering three straight with blowout wins over the Suns, Wizards and Knicks.  They will get some resistance from the Nets here.  And I don’t think they will be ‘all in’ for this game knowing that they play a back-to-back with a road game at Chicago tomorrow. 

The Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Warriors, including 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Brooklyn is 14-3 ATS vs. up-tempo teams who average 88 or more shots per game over the last three seasons.  They are actually winning these games outright by 6.7 points per game on average.  The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 

Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (Golden State) - an explosive offensive team that scores 103 or more points per game against an opponent that’s off a loss by 6 points or less are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Nets Sunday. 

20* Packers/Rams NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +10.5 

Aaron Rodgers has never been this big of an underdog as a starting quarterback in his career.  So from a value perspective, I love getting Rodgers as a double-digit underdog here against the Los Angeles Rams.  Rodgers is 4-0 ATS lifetime as an underdog of 6 points or more. 

Plus, the Packers are coming off their bye week, so they’ll be rested an ready to go.  The bye week has allowed several players to get healthy, including tackles Brian Bulaga and Jason Spriggs, CB Breshaud Breeland, and WR’s Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison.  Rodgers should have his full complement of weapons on offense for the first time this season.  And the Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. 

The Rams are clearly overvalued due to their 7-0 start.  They are the last unbeaten team in the NFL, and the betting public flocks to unbeaten teams.  With that record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  The Rams are good, but they are not 10 points better than the Packers. 

The Packers are 3-2-1 this season, but their numbers suggest they are a better team than that.  They are putting up 421 yards per game on offense and giving up just 328 yards per game on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 93 yards per game, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.  They have what it takes to hang with the Rams for four quarters.  And with Rodgers under center they’ll never be out of it. 

The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Rams.  I think this is a tough spot for the Rams off three straight road games.  Teams on the road this long are always tired when they get home, and there are more obligations when they get home.  It’s a big distraction, and I think it will be for the Rams here. 

Mike McCarthy is 11-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in three of the last four games as the coach of Green Bay.  The Rams are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.  The Rams are overvalued off their blowout win over the 49ers last week.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

Note: The Packers are a 20* all the way down to +7.5.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Ravens/Panthers UNDER 44 

I’m shocked to see a total this high between two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers and Baltimore Ravens.  I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in this matchup Sunday in what will be a good old-fashioned defensive battle. 

The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense at 14.4 points per game allowed.  They are also 1st in total defense at 280.6 yards per game allowed.  The Panthers are 10th in scoring defense at 21.8 points per game, and 13th in total defense at 355.3 yards per game. 

Both of these teams like to run the football and both have suspect quarterback play and weapons.  The Ravens have been a lot worse offensively on the road than at home. They are scoring just 19.7 points per game on the road this season. 

The UNDER is 5-0 in Ravens last five games overall.  They have seen 41 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  The only exception was the 47 points against New Orleans last week, but that game still stayed UNDER the 49-point total.  And that’s the Saints, not the Panthers, a team with a better defense but a lot worse offense than New Orleans. 

The UNDER is 35-14-2 in Ravens last 51 games after gaining more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Ravens last five road games.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Panthers last 28 home games vs. teams who average 260 or more passing yards per game.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +10.5 

The Kansas City Chiefs are getting a lot of love from the betting public right now.  They are not only 6-1 SU, but also 7-0 ATS this season.  They are the only team that has covered the spread on every closing line this year.  Of course that’s going to attract betting from the public. 

But this line has gotten out of hand this week.  The Chiefs are now 10.5-point home favorites over the Broncos.  This is a Broncos team that gave the Chiefs one of their toughest games of the season in Denver.  They only lost 23-27 after blowing a late 10-point lead in the fourth quarter.  Now, just four weeks later, they get their shot at revenge. 

I love the spot for the Broncos because of the revenge, but also because they have extra rest here.  They played last Thursday in what was a must-win game and came through with their best performance of the season.  They throttled Arizona 45-10 as 1-point road favorites.  But they are getting no credit for that win, while the Chiefs are getting a ton of love after beating the Bengals 45-10 on Sunday Night Football. 

The Chiefs have been getting by with bad defense as they rank dead last in total defense at 435.4 yards per game allowed.  They are only outgaining opponents by 2 yards per game on the season.  That’s not the sign of a team that should be 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS.  At some point, it’s going to catch up with them being this bad defensively. 

Compare their numbers to Denver and these are two pretty evenly matched teams.  The Broncos are also getting outgained by two years per game this season.  They have a vastly improved offense that is putting up 23.6 points and 376.4 yards per game this season.  Their defense has a lot more talent than the numbers have shown to this point as they’re giving up 23.4 points and 378 yards per game.   

They held the Chiefs to just 13 points in the first 53 minutes last meeting, so they know what it takes to slow them down.  Now they just got to find a way to stop the Chiefs late if they want to pull off the upset.  The good news is they don’t have to win this game for us to win, they just have to stay within 10 points, which shouldn’t be a problem.  The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with the Broncos Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Spurs UNDER 230.5 

I love this spot for an UNDER bet between the Lakers and Spurs.  These teams just played on October 22nd five days again and it was a shootout.  The Spurs won 143-142 in overtime in a game that was tied 128-128 after regulation. 

So, with that big scoring output, the total has now been inflated.  It was set at 226.5 for that game, and now it’s set four points higher at 230.5 in the rematch.  I love taking the UNDER when teams play each other a second time in a close proximity because it’s almost always lower scoring the second time. 

The biggest reason for this is that teams become familiar with one another.  That favors defense a lot more than offense.  Both teams know what one another like to do offensively, and they’ll be better prepared to stop it the second time around.  I expect this to be more of a defensive battle than the oddsmakers are anticipating tonight. 

Prior to that 256-point output at the end of regulation, the Lakers and Spurs had combined for 223 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their previous seven meetings.  The Lakers are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games after allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or better in three straight games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3.5

The Detroit Pistons are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-0 start to the season.  Their four wins have come against soft competition in the Nets, Bulls, 76ers and Cavaliers with three of them at home.  They won those four games by a combined 13 points, or by an average of 3.3 points per game. 

Now they take a big step up in class here against the Boston Celtics.  I think we are getting a short price on the Celtics because they are just 3-2 on the season thus far.  I have no doubt they are one of the best teams in the NBA, and probably the best team in the Eastern Conference.  Look for them to make easy work of the Pistons and hand them their first loss tonight. 

The Celtics are 4-1 SU in their last five meetings with the Pistons.  Better yet, the Celtics are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Detroit.  They won both road meetings last year by 12 and 10 points, respectively. 

The Celtics are 41-17 ATS in their last 58 Saturday games.  The Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Boston is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games off an upset win as an underdog.  Roll with the Celtics Saturday. 

20* Georgia/Florida SEC No-Brainer on Florida +7 

I came into the season loving Florida with the OVER 8 wins as my favorite win total.  And they’ve done nothing to disappoint me.  They’ve gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season as a hugely underrated commodity.    And they remain underrated as 7-point underdogs to Georgia here in the Cocktail Party. 

Just look at common opponents and it’s easy to see that Florida is the better of these two teams.  They’ve both played the same three teams this season.  Florida is 3-0 against them, outscoring them by 14.7 points per game.  Georgia is 2-1 against them, inly outscoring them by 11.4 points per game. 

The one game that really stands out is the LSU game.  Florida beat LSU 27-19 and held the Tigers to just 371 total yards.  Georgia lost 16-36 at LSU and gave up 475 total yards.  The Bulldogs were pushed around at the line of scrimmage, while the Gators stood their ground.  Georgia rushed for 275 yards on Georgia and 180 against Florida.  Florida rushed for 215 yards against LSU while Georgia rushed for just 113 yards.  And I think Florida winning the battle at the line of scrimmage is the key to their victory here. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Florida) - a good rushing team that gains 190 to 230 RYPG against a team with a good run defense that gives up 100 to 140 RYPG, after outrushing their last opponent by 150 or more yards are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

Dan Mullen is 15-5 ATS versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry in all games he has coached.  Florida is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 road games when playing with two or more weeks’ rest.  The Bulldogs are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.  The Gators are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Florida Saturday.

25* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -3 

The Iowa State Cyclones have played the toughest schedule in the entire country to this point according to the Sagarin ratings.  That explains why they are just 3-3 on the season, and they’ve done a great job of winning three games when you consider they’ve been an underdog in five of their six games this year.  And they were competitive in every game as they didn’t lose once by more than 10 points. 

Iowa State’s resurgence in its last two games have been a lot about freshman QB Brock Purdy.  He took over against Oklahoma State and led the Cyclones to a 48-42 victory as 10-point road underdogs.  And he also led them to a 30-14 home win over West Virginia as 4.5-point dogs. 

Purdy is completing 75% of his passes for 572 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio and 11.9 yards per attempt.  He is a dual-threat with 122 rushing yards and a score as well in those two games.  Star RB David Montgomery is back healthy, and WR Hakeem Butler is a beast who is averaging 20 yards per reception with 5 touchdowns.  The run-pass option of Purdy, Montgomery and Butler is one of the deadliest trios in the country. 

But it’s this Iowa State defense that deserves the credit.  The Cyclones held Will Grier and the high-powered WVU offense to just 152 total yards and outgained them by 346 yards for the game.  Despite playing the toughest schedule in the country, the Cyclones are only giving up 22.7 points per game and 316.7 yards per game.  They are holding opponents to 115 yards per game and 1.5 per play below their season averages. 

I think the bye week came at a great time after the win over West Virginia.  Any team that plays a tough early schedule needs a bye, and the Cyclones got it at the perfect time.  Now they can refocus for the stretch run.  They have a legit shot to make the Big 12 title game because they will be favored in five of their final six games with the only exception being at Texas. 

Kliff Kingsbury learned his offense from WVU head coach Dana Holgorsen.  And Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has owned the Red Raiders in his two meetings against them.  The Cyclones won 66-10 as 3.5-point home dogs in 2016.  They also won 31-13 as 7-point road dogs in 2017.  They have covered the spread by a combined 85 points in their two games against Texas Tech under Campbell.  And their defense held held that potent Red Raiders offense to just 11.5 points and 321 yards per game in the two meetings. 

The Cyclones are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.  They have been way undervalued over the past three seasons under Campbell, and they continue to be here as only 3-point home favorites in a game I expect them to win in blowout fashion.  Iowa State is 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Texas Tech is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games as a road underdog of 3 to 7 points.  Kingsbury is 2-9 ATS off a conference win by 10 points or more as the coach of Texas Tech.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Clemson/Florida State ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +17 

For starters, this is the biggest home underdog role for Florida State since at least 1980.  That was the furthest I was able to look back.  So that fact alone show you there’s value with Florida State as 17-point home dogs to Clemson this week. 

It was always going to take some time for first-year head coach Willie Taggart to implement his systems.  And it was ugly to start this year as the Seminoles opened 1-2 with blowout losses to Virginia Tech and Syracuse, as well as a narrow home win over FCS foe Samford. 

But the Seminoles have gotten going in recent weeks.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Northern Illinois by 18 at home, won 28-24 at Louisville, and beat Wake Forest by 21 at home.  Their only loss was a 28-27 road loss at Miami as 14-point dogs, so they covered the spread with ease and actually led that game 27-7 before giving up 21 unanswered to close. 

I was impressed with the way the Seminoles came out of their bye week following that heartbreaking loss to Miami.  They swiftly took care of business against Wake Forest in that 21-point win.  And now they will be amped up to face the No. 2 team in the country in Clemson. 

I think Clemson comes in overvalued off its 41-7 win over NC State last week at home.  The Wolfpack were ranked coming into that game, so the win looks better than it was, but they were clearly overrated.  And most teams Clemson goes up against they have the better athletes, but that won’t be the case here against Florida State. 

Florida State hasn’t lost by more than 17 points to Clemson in any of the last 12 meetings in this series.  And the lone 17-point loss came last year at Clemson as 16.5-point dogs.  Well, that was a 17-14 game with only three minutes to go.  Clemson got two touchdowns in the final three minutes, including a 10-yard run with 35 seconds left when they could have simply kneeled.  I think these FSU players remember the way that Clemson kind of rubber their noses in at the end of the game and will be looking for revenge. 

The Seminoles didn’t have QB Deondre Francois for that game as he was lost for the season in the opener against Alabama.  Francois is starting to grasp Taggart’s offense, and his talents are really starting to show over the past four games.  He has a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his last four games while throwing for at least 294 yards in three of the four. 

Plays against road favorite of 10.5 to 21 points (Clemson) - a team that outgains their opponents by 125 or more yards per game, after gaining 525 or more total yards per game in their last two games are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Th home team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  Clemson is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games off three straight wins over conference opponents.  The Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Take Florida State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Connecticut +5 

This young UConn team went through the gauntlet to start the season.  They are 1-6 with their six losses coming to UCF, Boise State, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Memphis and South Florida with four of those on the road.  They have played the 26th-toughest schedule in the country. 

I was all over UConn last week as 34-point underdogs at South Florida as my 25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR.  They easily covered in a 30-38 loss.  A big reason I was on them was because of the difficult schedule, and also because they were coming off a bye.  And bye weeks are huge for young teams.  There’s no question this team took a big step forward on their bye week. 

And now they should still be fresh here with Mass coming to town this weekend, and a great chance for the Huskies to pick up their second win of the season.  These opportunities are few and far between for this team, so I look for them to take advantage and be playing with a lot of confidence following that 8-point road loss to unbeaten and ranked South Florida. 

I’m shocked UMass is a road favorite here.  This is a Minutemen team that is just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS on the season with their only win coming at home against Charlotte as favorites.  All six of their losses have come by double-digits, including their 13-24 home loss to Coastal Carolina last week as 2-point favorites.  They also have losses to Boston College, Georgia Southern, FIU, Ohio and South Florida.  As you can see, that’s a much easier slate than what UConn has been up against.  The Minutemen have played the 100th-toughest schedule in the country. 

Now UMass even has to deal with the loss of their best player in QB Andrew Ford, who is out for the season with a leg injury.  He has put up huge numbers over the past few seasons for the Minutemen.  Ford is completing 64.4% of his passes for 1,340 yards with a 9-to-5 TD/INT ratio for Mass this season.  There’s a big downgrade to their backup quarterback.  Without Ford, it makes even less sense that the Minutemen are favored here. 

UConn has actually put up solid offensive numbers this season despite the brutal schedule.  They hung 30 points and 455 total yards on South Florida last week.  And they should be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a UMass defense that is allowing 42.2 points and 500 yards per game.  UConn allowed a season-low in points last week and this defense certainly got a lot healthier over the bye week.  This defense will be much better the rest of the way than it was in the first half of the season, simply with experience and healthy, plus the fact that the schedule gets a lot easier. 

UConn is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games off two consecutive road losses.  The Minutemen are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  These two trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Huskies, who are simply undervalued right now because the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  There’s going to be value on the Huskies moving forward, including this week.  Take UConn Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas +1.5 

It was always going to take some time for Chad Morris to turn around this Arkansas program.  After a 1-6 start to the season, the Razorbacks had been through the gauntlet.  Their final four losses during that stretch came against Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama and Ole Miss.  But there were parts of every one of those games that were good signs for Arkansas moving forward. 

The 3-34 loss at Auburn was one of the biggest misleading finals of the year.  Arkansas actually outgained Auburn by 65 yards in that game while holding the Tigers to just 225 total yards.  They only lost 17-24 at Texas A&M the next week and easily covered the 19-point spread.  Then they hung 31 points on Alabama and covered the 34.5-point spread.  And then they held a 10-point lead over Ole Miss late, but lost 33-37, covering as 6.5-point underdogs. 

The Razorbacks took out their frustration last week with a 23-0 win over Tulsa as 7-point favorites.  The defense has made major strides in recent weeks, and the offense is playing much better under QB Ty Story.  Quietly, the Razorbacks have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  And they’re once again getting zero respect as home underdogs to Vanderbilt here. 

We see this happen to Vanderbilt every season.  They’ll get off to a great start in non-conference play, but then get worked in SEC play.  And it’s been more of the same this year.  Vanderbilt is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in SEC play this season.  In between the four losses was an ugly 31-27 home win over Tennessee State as 28.5-point favorites. 

Vanderbilt lost 14-37 at home to South Carolina as 1.5-point dogs and were outgained by 250 yards.  They were crushed 13-41 at Georgia as 25.5-point dogs and outgained by 239 yards.  They lost at home to Florida 27-37 as 9.5-point dogs and were outgained by 240 yards.  They did only lose 7-14 at Kentucky last time out as 10.5-point dogs, but that’s an overrated Kentucky team. 

The Commodores are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games.  The Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.  Arkansas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  Vanderbilt is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after gaining less than 100 rushing yards in its previous game.  The Commodores are 2-17 SU in SEC road games since 2013.  The Razorbacks are 5-1 SU in their last six meetings with Vanderbilt.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Brooklyn Nets +10 

The Brooklyn Nets catching double-digits to the New Orleans Pelicans tonight is a nice value play.  I think the Nets are underrated early in the season, while the Pelicans are starting to get too much love from oddsmakers. 

The Pelicans have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season.  With that start comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to.  No question the Pelicans are a playoff contender, but they can’t be laying double-digits consistently. 

The Nets have improved dramatically over the past three seasons under head coach Kenny Atkinson.  They are off to a 2-2 start this season and one of their losses was a 3-point loss at Detroit.  The other was a blowout loss at Indiana.  They have also beaten Cleveland on the road and New York at home thus far. 

Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, off three or more consecutive wins are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Nets are 8-0 ATS after allowing 90 points or less last game over the past three seasons.  Brooklyn is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the Nets Friday. 

15* Red Sox/Dodgers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -150 

I’m willing to lay this juice in a must-win situation for the Los Angeles Dodgers.  If they are going to get back in this series, they must win Game 3 at home tonight.  And I think they get the job done since they have their best starter on the mound. 

Walker Buehler is having a phenomenal season.  He is 8-5 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.935 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including 4-3 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.769 WHIP in 13 home starts.  He came up big in Game 7 at Milwaukee to lead the Dodgers to victory.  And he hasn’t backed down in big spots all season. 

Rick Porcello is overmatched here.  He is 18-7 in spite of a 4.31 ERA in 35 starts this season.  Porcello has posted a 5.90 ERA and 1.968 WHIP in two career starts against Los Angeles.  He is averaging just 3 2/3 innings per start in his last three starts.  He gave up 4 earned runs in 4 innings at Houston in his last start. 

Plays on home favorites of -150 or more (LA Dodgers) - a good NL offensive team scoring at least 4.7 runs per game against a team with a good bullpen with an ERA of 3.75 or better, after a game where they had four or fewer hits are 50-13 (79.4%, +28.5 units) since 1997.  The Dodgers are 17-5 in their last 22 home games.  Roll with the Dodgers Friday. 

20* Miami/Boston College ACC No-Brainer on Boston College +3.5 

The Boston College Eagles still have their sights set on an ACC title.  They sit at 5-2 on the season with one of their losses being a non-conference loss at Purdue, which looks better and better by the day.  And their other loss was a 23-28 road loss to NC State.  And now the Eagles get to host both Miami and Clemson in two of the next three weeks, so they have a legitimate shot. 

It should be a great atmosphere for the Eagles on a Friday night home game on ESPN.  The Eagles are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by 27.5 points per game.  They are scoring 50.0 points and putting up 521.2 yards per game at home this year, and giving up just 22.5 points and 294.5 yards per game. 

Boston College is remarkably healthy right now.  The only player listed on the injury report is RB A.J. Dillon, but he is probable.  And while Dillon (652 yards, 6 TD) is a special back, he is one of five players averaging at least 5.6 yards per carry for the Eagles.  BC has one of the best offensive lines in the entire country, and their ability to move Miami back will be the key to them winning this game. 

Maimi’s five wins this season have come against Savannah State, Toledo, FIU, UNC and FSU with four of those wins coming at home.  When they’ve stepped up in class, they haven’t performed well.  They lost 17-33 to LSU on a neutral in what was a 33-3 game before the Hurricanes tacked on two late garbage touchdowns.  They only beat Florida State 28-27 at home as 14-point favorites, and actually trailed 27-7 in that game.  And they lost 13-16 at Virginia as 7-point favorites. 

Miami does have a laundry list of injuries with 10 players out.  And they keep playing musical chairs at quarterback.  After a sluggish start to the season, Malik Rosier was benched.  But now after that 13-16 loss to Virginia, the Hurricanes are going back to Rosier this week.  He has held back this offense over the past two years and he won’t have much success against his stingy BC defense this week, either. 

Miami is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of 6 or more points.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three years.  The Eagles are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games.  Boston College is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  The Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. 

Plays against road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points (Miami) - off a road loss, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Boston College Friday.

15* Dolphins/Texans AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston -7.5 

Most folks wrote the Houston Texans off after an 0-3 start.  But a closer look at the numbers showed that they simply were unfortunate to lose all three games.  They were outgained by 64 yards at New England, but they outgained Tennessee by 154 yards and New York by 48 yards and probably should have won both of those games. 

Since then the Texans have reeled off four straight victories and are currently in first place in the AFC South.  And they have a great opportunity here to grab a stranglehold on the division with a win over the Miami Dolphins Thursday night.  I think they win in blowout fashion here at home tonight. 

The numbers show the Texans are one of the better teams in the NFL.  They are outgaining opponents by 42 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play on the season.  Watson and the offense are moving the football at will, and JJ Watt and the defense are playing at a very high level.  They have allowed 7, 13 and 16 points in their last three games, respectively. 

I think this Houston defense will feast on a banged-up Miami offense that is playing with a backup QB and has several injury concerns at receiver.  Brock Osweiler will start in place of Ryan Tannehill.  And he’ll be without his two best weapons in Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson, while DeVante Parker and Danny Amendola will both be playing through injury.  Stills is averaging 17.6 YPC with 4 touchdowns while Wilson is averaging 15.0 YPC with 4 touchdowns.  That’s two huge losses. 

The Dolphins are not a very good team as they’re a fraudulent 4-3 this season.  They are actually getting outgained by 76 yards per game this season.  The problem I have with Miami is their defense, which is giving up 405.3 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  They are soft at the line is scrimmage, giving up 137 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  They’re also allowing 269 passing yards per game and 8.0 per attempt. 

Adam Gase is 0-7 ATS in road games off a loss as the coach of Miami.  The Dolphins are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing 400 or more yards per game in their last three games.  Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Texans Thursday. 

20* Celtics/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 216 

Both the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  Both are off to disappointing starts as the Celtics are just 2-2 and the Thunder are 0-3.  I think we see a big effort from both teams defensively to try and get a win tonight, which favors the UNDER. 

The Celtics are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and have been since Brad Stevens took over.  They are giving up just 98.5 points per game on 42.1% shooting through four games this season.  They are averaging just 198.2 combined points per game with their opponents this year, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight’s posted total of 216. 

The Thunder still have the same offensive issues they’ve had since Kevin Durant left.  It’s too much one-on-one with Russell Westbrook and Paul George, and they simply lack 3-point shooters.  They are scoring just 104.0 points per game on 39% shooting this season thus far through three games. 

Both meetings between Boston and OKC went UNDER the total with ease last season.  They combined for just 195 points in Oklahoma City with a 207.5-point total.  They also combined for just 199 points in their meeting in Boston with a 208-point total. 

The UNDER is 17-4 in Thunder last 21 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Thunder last 14 games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Thunder last six games following a double-digit home loss.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Celtics last nine games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last four games following a loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* App State/Georgia Southern Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Southern +10.5 

Appalachian State just moved into the Top 25 for the first time in program history this week.  I always like fading teams who just reached the Top 25 that aren’t used to it.  They start getting national recognition and feeling fat and happy.  And they have extra expectations from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to. 

I’m shocked to see the Mountaineers as double-digit road favorites over Georgia Southern tonight.  There’s so much to like about this game, but it starts with the value perspective fading the Mountaineers because of their Top 25 ranking. 

The second-most important factor is that Georgia Southern runs a triple-option offense, and Appalachian State only has a few days to get ready for it after playing on Saturday.  Triple-option teams have a huge advantage on a short week every time.  It’s simply the most difficult offense to prepare for because defensive fundamentals are so important. 

This Georgia Southern team is one of the most underrated in the country.  They returned 18 starters this year, so this was already going to be a veteran bunch.  And they have come out guns-a-blazing with a 6-1 start and are legitimate threats to Appalachian State to win the Sun Belt.  Their only loss this season came on the road at Clemson. 

Georgia Southern is a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring their opponents 36.7 to 13.2 on average, or by 23.5 points per game at home.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games dating back to last year.  Head coach Chad Lunsford is 6-0 ATS in games played on a grass field as the coach of Georgia Southern. 

Plays against a team with a winning percentage of 80% or better (Appalachian State) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games when playing another team with a winning record are 59-23 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Georgia Southern Thursday. 

15* Ball State/Ohio MAC ANNIHILATOR on Ball State +11 

Sitting at 3-5 on the season, the Ball State Cardinals need a win tonight if they want any chance of making a bowl game.  I look for them to lay it all on the line here against the Ohio Bobcats to get a win.  I love catching double-digits with this hungry Cardinals squad tonight. 

I have no doubt Ball State is better than is 3-5 record, too.  Three of the losses came by 8 points or fewer, including a 16-24 loss at Notre Dame as 33.5-point underdogs.  The only exceptions were a 10-38 loss at Indiana and a 20-42 loss to Eastern Michigan, which is probably the best team in the MAC.  And they’ve only been outgained by more than 69 yards once this season, and that was the 110 yards at Indiana. 

Many expected Ohio to compete for a MAC title this year, but this team looks far from a MAC title contender thus far.  The Bobcats opened the season with a 38-32 home win over Howard as 30.5-point favorites and were outgained by 220 yards in that game.  That was a sign of things to come for this team. 

The Bobcats have been outgained in five of their seven games this season, so they are very fortunate to be 4-3.  The only two teams they outgained were Bowling Green and UMass, and both of those games were at home.  Their other two wins came against Kent State 27-26 as 11-point favorites and that 6-point win over FCS foe Howard.  Ball State is much better than the four teams Ohio has beaten this year. 

I think we’re getting some extra value here on the Cardinals based on last week’s results.  Ball State lost by 22 to Eastern Michigan, while Ohio beat Bowling Green by 35.  Otherwise this line probably would have been a touchdown or less.  So now we’re catching double-digits on the Cardinals when we shouldn’t be. 

These are two evenly-matched teams when you look at the numbers, and if anything the Cardinals have been better.  Ball State has clearly played the tougher schedule having had to face Notre Dame and Indiana out of conference.  And the Cardinals are still outgaining opponents by 31 yards per game on the season.  Ohio is actually getting outgained by 9 yards per game.  This is an Ohio defense that can’t be trusted, giving up 465 yards per game and 6.7 per play. 

The Cardinals are 56-27 ATS in their last 83 road games.  The Bobcats are 5-16 ATS int heir last 21 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Ball State is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Ohio.  Take Ball State Thursday.