25* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Blazers/Pelicans OVER 237.5

The Pelicans are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 241 points at the end of regulation in six of those eight games.  The Pelicans have been OVER machines at home, going 8-1 OVER in their last nine home games.

The Pelicans are coming off a 135-132 home loss to the Spurs for 267 combined points.  Rookie Derik Queen had his first triple-double with 33 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists.  His playmaking ability as their lone big man makes them a very good offensive team.  Trey Murphy had 32 points in the loss.  There's a chance to Pelicans get Jordan Poole back tonight for even more offensive firepower.  But the Pelicans rank 29th in defensive rating this season and that's just not fixable at this point.

The Blazers profile as a dead nuts OVER team as well ranking 3rd in pace and 20th in defensive rating.  They are 15-9 OVER in all games this season.  They will be without C Donovan Clingan and his backup Robert Williams is questionable as well.  The Blazers will likely go small ball tonight to match up with the Pelicans.

This is a rematch from a 125-117 home win by the Pelicans on November 12th for 242 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  Sharpe had 35 points and Advija 32 points in that first meeting, and they should have monster games again.  Queen had 26 points, Murphy 22 and Bey 25 in that first meeting.  Neither team shot lights out with the Pelicans at 33% from 3 and the Blazers 35% from 3.  So there is room for improvement in that department and an even higher-scoring game in the rematch.  This total of 237.5 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Iowa/Iowa State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -10.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are like the Michigan Wolverines right now as oddsmakers just can't set their spreads high enough.  Those are the top two teams in Kenpom currently.  They have failed to set this number high enough, too.

The Cyclones are 9-0 SU & 7-1-1 ATS this season with eight wins by 16 points or more.  They beat Mississippi State by 16, Creighton by 18 and Syracuse by 31 on neutrals.  They beat No. 1 ranked Purdue by 23 in a true road game last time out which was the most impressive single result for any team this season if it wasn't Michigan's 40-point win over Gonzaga on a neutral.

If Iowa State was playing anyone but Iowa off that Purdue win, this would be a letdown spot.  But the Cyclones will have no problem getting back up to face their in-state rival tonight.  I expect them to make easy work of the Hawkeyes tonight.

Iowa is getting some respect after a 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS start this season.  But the Hawkeyes have benefited from the 209th-ranked schedule with six home games against overmatched competition.  They did beat Ole Miss and Grand Canyon on a neutral, but in their lone true road game they lost 71-52 at Michigan State.  

I see this game playing out just as poorly for them in their 2nd true road game in what will be a very hostile atmosphere at Hilton Coliseum.  I also think the Hawkeyes are very predictable with only Bennett Stirtz (18.8 PPG) averaging more than 8.8 PPG for the Hawkeyes.  Stop Stirtz and you stop the Hawkeyes, and one of the best head coaches in the country in TJ Otzelberger will have the answers for him tonight.  Bet Iowa State Thursday.

20* Spurs/Lakers NBA Cup No-Brainer on San Antonio +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games without Victor Wembenyama.  That includes their 139-136 win as 7-point road dogs at Denver that got them into the NBA Cup quarterfinals.

They did most of that damage even without Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper.  Well, both Castle and Harper are back now, and the Spurs have plenty of ammo to give the Lakers a run for their money tonight on the road.

The teams the Spurs struggle with right now without Wembenyama would be teams with dominant big men that can take advantage of their lack of rim protection.  The Lakers don't possess that with only De'Andre Ayton the only threat, but he is more of an afterthought with James, Doncic and Reaves running the show.

These teams profile very similarly with elite guard play, very good offense and a lack of defense.  I think the Spurs can hang with the Lakers in a shootout tonight in a game that is decided on the final few possessions.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on UT-Martin +8.5

UT-Martin has played its best basketball in true road games this season.  The Skyhawks actually went 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three true road games against very good competition.  They upset UNLV 86-81 as 17.5-point road dogs, upset Bradley 78-67 as 15.5-point road dogs and hung with Florida State in a 87-73 loss as 20-point road dogs.

This will be the easiest true road game of the season to this point for the Skyhawks, and I fully expect them to stay within this 8.5-point spread against Southern Illinois.  The Salukis are 5-4 this season with their five wins coming against McKendree, Kansas City, Delaware, Little Rock and High Point.  Three of those teams rank outside the Top 279 in KenPom plus McKendree.

UT-Martin is holding opponents to 9.0 points per game below their season averages defensively.  Southern Illinois is actually allowing 1.1 points per game more than their opponents typically average.  I'll gladly side with the better defensive team here in the Skyhawks, and fade a poor shooting Salukis team that ranks 341st in 3-point percentage at 27.4%.  Bet UT-Martin Wednesday.

15* Suns/Thunder NBA Cup ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 226.5

The NBA Cup and the NBA Playoffs are where teams actually try hard on defense.  The books opened this total at a number that is in line with what it would be for any regular season game.  But this isn't just any regular season game, teams have to win to advance and there's real money on the line.

I was on both UNDERS last night and both came through with ease.  Orlando beat Miami 117-108 for 225 combined points with a 235-point closing total.  New York beat Toronto 117-101 for 218 combined points and a 226.5-point closing total.

These teams just squared off on November 28th in Oklahoma City in the final game of NBA Cup Group Play.  That total was set at 223, and this total has been moved up to 226.5 for the rematch after a shootout broke out in that first meeting in a 123-119 victory for the Thunder.  The Suns kept fighting late into the 4th quarter because they needed to get in on point differential.

I think this game will play out much differently.  The Thunder get back both Lu Dort and Alex Caruso for this one, which are two of their best defenders but neither is great on the offensive end.  They won't have Isaiah Joe, arguably their best shooter.  The Thunder rank 1st in defensive rating by 6.6 points per game.  Nothing will come easy for the Suns tonight, who may be without Devin Booker again.  I like the UNDER whether or not he plays.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  These teams just played on November 28th.  They have both had plenty of time to prepare to stop one another in the rematch.  The Thunder have had the last two days off and will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days here.  The Suns will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Knicks/Raptors NBA Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 231.5

I released this total on Monday and it has since been bet down.  I would still play it as a 20* at 225 or higher, and a 15* at anything less than that.

The NBA Cup and the NBA Playoffs are where teams actually try hard on defense.  The books opened this total at a number that is in line with what it would be for any regular season game.  But this isn't just any regular season game, teams have to win to advance and there's real money on the line.

Injuries are a big reason I'm on the UNDER.  The Raptors have been lost on offense without RJ Barrett (19.4 PPG).  They have been held to 97 points or fewer in three of their last seven games.  Now Immanuel Quickley (16.5 PPG, 6.2 APG) was downgraded to questionable with an illness today.  Backup PG Jamal Shead (5.8 PPG) is questionable as well.

The Knicks will be without Miles McBride (11.6 PPG) and Landry Shamet (9.3 PPG), plus Karl-Anthony Towns (22.5 PPG) missed last game and is questionable with a calf injury.  I have to think he'll be on a minutes limit at the very least as teams have been very cautious with these calf injuries.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Knicks just beat the Raptors 116-94 on November 30th for 210 combined points.  Now they meet again here nine days later and the total has actually been set higher at 231.5 than it was in that first meeting (229.5).  There's clearly value on the UNDER given the injuries and the familiarity.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Illinois/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State +5.5

Illinois is overvalued off a 13-point win over an overrated Tennessee team on a neutral on Saturday.  Keep in mind they only beat Texas Tech by 4 at home, and lost outright to Alabama and UConn (by 13) on a neutral already this season.  This will now be their first true road game of the season and their Big Ten opener, and they should not be favored at Ohio State.

This Buckeyes team looks like a wagon this season with a home win over Notre Dame and a road win at Northwestern to open Big Ten play.  Their only loss came by a single point at Pitt.  I love the balance at the top with Thornton (20.1 PPG), Tilly (14.1 PPG), Mobley Jr. (14.0 PPG) and Royal (13.4 PPG).  They have the horses to give Illinois a run for its money tonight.  Bet Ohio State Tuesday.

15* Clemson/BYU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Clemson +6.5

Clemson has wins over Georgia and West Virginia on a neutral this season.  The Tigers suffered both losses in true road games at Georgetown by 5 and at Alabama by 6.  They are back on a neutral here at Madison Square Garden, and I don't expect them to suffer their first loss by more than 6 points tonight.

BYU is 6-1 with a 2-point loss to UConn.  The win over Wisconsin was impressive, but the narrow wins over Miami and Dayton were not.  I just think this Cougars team is overrated.  They are not 6.5 points better than Clemson on a neutral.  I have this spread closer to 3.  Bet Clemson Tuesday.

20* Heat/Magic NBA Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 240.5

I released this total on Sunday when I found out Franz Wagner was injured for the Magic.  I was already going to be on the UNDER either way, but this total has been bet down since as I expected.  I would still play it as a 20* at 235 or higher, and a 15* at anything less than that.

The NBA Cup and the NBA Playoffs are where teams actually try hard on defense.  The books opened this total at a number that is in line with what it would be for any regular season game.  But this isn't just any regular season game, teams have to win to advance and there's real money on the line.

The loss of Wagner (22.7 PPG) is a huge blow to the Magic.  They are much easier to defend without him.  They have also been playing much slower since Paulo Blanchero returned from injury, and they have been worse with him than without him.  Jalen Suggs (14.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) is also dealing with a knee injury that he will be playing through.

The Heat are 3-0 UNDER in their last three games overall and have been playing a little slower here of late as it was going to be tough to keep up that pace all season.  The Magic want to play slower tonight, and they will likely control the tempo playing at home.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will actually be the rd meeting of the season already between Miami and Orlando.  These teams just played on December 5th in Orlando with the Magic winning 106-105 for just 211 combined points.  This total cannot be set this high in the rematch here just four days later with defensive intensity turned up to the max.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Cup Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Miami Heat PK

The loss of Franz Wagner (22.7 PPG) is a huge blow to the Magic.  They are much easier to defend without him.  They have also been playing much slower since Paulo Blanchero returned from injury, and they have been worse with him than without him.  Jalen Suggs (14.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) is also dealing with a knee injury that he will be playing through.

The Heat are fully healthy for this game and want revenge on the Magic after two losses in Orlando already this season by a combined 5 points.  That includes their 106-105 loss in Orlando on December 5th just four days ago.  The ultimate revenge would be to win this NBA Cup Game, and I like their chances given the injury advantage.

Wagner had 24 points in the first meeting and 32 points in the second meeting with the Heat.  Losing all that production will be too tough for the Magic to overcome tonight.  The Heat have had the last two days off while the Magic just played in New York on Sunday in the game Wagner got hurt.  The rest, health, and motivational advantages have me on Miami in this one.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

20* Eagles/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3

The Chargers came out of their much-needed bye week with a dominant 31-14 home win over the Raiders as 10-point favorites.  They are now one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  Yes, Justin Herbert will be playing with a hand injury, but it's on his non-throwing hand and we've seen Aaron Rodgers be just fine with basically the same injury.  The offensive line has some injuries, but these backups have had a lot of playing time and are starting to gel now.

While I like this Chargers offense with Herbert and some of the best weapons he's ever had plus RB Omarian Hampton returning from IR this week, it's the Chargers defense that is leading this team.  They rank 3rd in total defense at 275.2 yards per game and are showing what they are capable of when fully healthy on that side of the ball.

The Chargers have been dominant at home this season from a statistical perspective.  They are averaging 371.8 yards per game at home and allowing just 266 yards per game at home, outgaining opponents by 105.8 yards per game.  It's no longer a lackluster home-field advantage like it used to be.  Fans are excited about the direction Jim Harbaugh has this franchise heading.

The Eagles are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and should not be favored on the road here.  The Eagles have a broken offense that is averaging 304.8 yards per game, and a mediocre defense that allows 347.2 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 42.4 yards per game.  That mediocre defense got exposed last week in allowing 425 total yards including 281 rushing in a 24-15 home loss to the Bears as 7-point favorites.

A big problem for the Eagles right now is they are missing their best player in the trenches on both sides of the football.  RT Lane Johnson remains out, and now DE Jalen Carter is out which was announced this week.  Over the last 10 years, the Eagles are 96-41-1 SU when Johnson starts, and 12-25 SU when he doesn't.

Jalen Hurts is actually just 1-5 ATS in his next game after an upset loss as a home favorite, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite in his next game.  The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five MNF games.  Herbert is 12-6-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 or higher in his career.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +9.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the San Antonio Spurs.  They have their NBA Cup quarterfinal game on deck against the Lakers Wednesday.  They will be overlooking the Pelicans and looking ahead to the Lakers and will not put their best foot forward tonight.  That will make it very difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it's going to take to beat us.

The Pelicans continue to play hard despite a tough season to this point.  They have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  These are the types of teams you can make money on in the NBA that have poor records but show up every night.

The Pelicans want revenge from a pair of close losses to the Spurs already this season by 4 in OT at home and by 7 on the road.  Victor Wembenyama played in both of those games for the Spurs.  Now they won't have him, and the Pelicans should easily stay within this inflated number tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Pelicans OVER 236.5

The Spurs are having to play more small ball without Victor Wembenyama.  The result has been a 4-1 OVER run with 247, 245, 237 and 273 combined points in the four OVERS.  I question their defensive intensity for this game with an NBA Cup game on deck Wednesday.

The Pelicans are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 241 points at the end of regulation in five of those seven games.  The Pelicans have been OVER machines at home, going 7-1 OVER in their last eight home games.

The Spurs beat the Pelicans 126-119 at home for 245 combined points in their last meeting on November 8th.  Zion Williams didn't play in that game either.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Texans/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +4

The Houston Texans have dug their way out of the 0-3 hole to start to go 7-2 in their last nine games overall.  They are now just one game out of first place in the AFC South.  They beat the Jaguars, Titans and Bills without CJ Stroud.  Stroud returned last week to lead them to a 20-16 upset road win at Indianapolis.  He threw for 276 yards in his return, and the Texans are fully healthy on offense and should be their best version of themselves moving forward.

But what really makes me like this Texans team is the fact that they have the best defense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring defense at 16.5 points per game, 1st in total defense at 265.7 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per play.  They rank at or near the top of the NFL in almost every advanced metric as well.

The Chiefs are going to be without three starters on the offensive line in this game in LT Justin Simmons, RT Jawaan Taylor and RG Trey Smith.  Patrick Mahomes is going to be under duress the entire game against the best defensive line in the NFL.  This is not the defense you want to be without three starters on the offensive line.

The Chiefs just have a way of playing in close games win or lose, it just so happens they are losing more of those close games now and I think it's starting to get to their head.  They are 1-6 in one-score games this season.  They aren't finishing games, and I don't see it magically changing this week.  At the very least, they should not be more than 2.5-point home favorites over the Texans, so getting +4 with Houston in a game that is likely decided by a FG either way is nice value.

Houston also wants revenge from a 23-14 loss at Kansas City in the playoffs last year.  The Chiefs were lucky to survive that game en route to the Super Bowl.  The Texans deserved to win and they know it, outgaining the Chiefs 336 to 212, or by 124 total yards.  This Houston defense is built to stop Kansas City and they will do it again with revenge in mind Sunday night.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* Lakers/76ers NBA No-Brainer on OVER 232.5

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team going 16-6 OVER in all games this season.  They get Luka Doncic back and should be at full strength with the exception of Marcus Smart, who is one of their best defenders but they don't miss anything with him on offense.

The 76ers will be about as healthy as they have been all season tonight.  They will have Paul George and Joel Embiid available today to go along with Maxey, Edgecombe and Grimes.  They are primed for one of their biggest offensive outputs of the season with all of these guys available.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Texas A&M/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 164

Two elite offensive teams square off tonight in what should be a very up-tempo game featuring a ton of scoring between SMU and Texas A&M.  This total of 164 is too short given the styles of both teams.

SMU ranks 79th in adjusted tempo, 19th in average length of offensive possession and 47th in adjusted offense.  The Mustangs are scoring 89.4 points per game on 48.8% shooting and 33.9% from 3-point range.

Texas A&M ranks 54th in adjusted tempo, 16th in average length of offensive possession and 46th in adjusted offense.  The Aggies are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 167 or more combined points three times.  They are scoring 92.2 points per game on 47.1% shooting and 38.1% from 3-point range.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/Packers OVER 44

This total of 44 is too low for a game involving the Bears, a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  The Bears and their opponents have gone for 44 or more combined points in nine of their 12 games this season.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 26.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 374.2 yards per game and 11th at 5.8 yards per play.  They just put up 425 total yards on the Eagles last week, and the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Bears rank 27th in total defense at 359 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  It's a very banged up Chicago defense which is a big reason for their struggles.

Since Matt LaFleur was called out after a 10-7 home loss to Philadelphia, the Packers have been thriving on offense the last three weeks.  They put up 27 points on the Giants, 23 on the Vikings and 31 on the Lions in three consecutive wins since.  They have done so without both WR Jayden Reid and WR Matthew Golden, who are both likely back this week.  Jordan Love will have his full compliment of weapons and will torch this Chicago defense.

It will be cold in Green Bay, but these teams are used to the cold.  The key is there will be no wind and no precipitation, which sets us up for a shootout.  This total of 44 is too short.  Green Bay will likely get to 30 points and Chicago will be forced to run even more up-tempo to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bengals/Bills OVER 50.5

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team especially now with Joe Burrow at QB.  In his first game back from injury, Burrow led the Bengals to 32 points against a very good Baltimore defense.  He didn't even have Tee Higgins due to a concussion, and Higgins is back this week.  The Bengals are basically fully healthy on offense now.

But this Cincinnati defense is the reason they are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bengals rank 32nd in scoring defense at 31.2 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 410 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play.  It was a fluke they only allowed 14 points to the Ravens, who fumbled going into the end zone for a touchback as part of their 5 turnovers that took a bunch of points off the board.

The Bills will hang a big number on the Bengals at home, where their offense has shined this season.  The Bills are scoring 32.5 points per game and allowing 26.0 points per game at home this season.  They get both TE Dalton Kincaid and LT Dion Dawkins back from injury this week, who they didn't have in scoring 26 points on the Steelers last week with a ground-heavy approach.

Both teams are great at inside zone runs, and both defenses are terrible at defending inside zone runs.  The reason I don't believe the Bills are a real Super Bowl contender is a leaky defense.  And that defense will be without DE Joey Bosa and LB Terrel Bernard this week.  They are all banged up in the secondary as well, so Burrow should feast through the air and Brown should have a big day on the ground.

The forecast is actually going to favor a shootout even though there will be snow.  There will be no wind, which is the biggest factor.  The snow actually favors the offensive players because they know where they are going, while the defenders have to react and that's where the slips happen.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +4.5

The Cleveland Browns cannot be favored by more than a FG over the Tennessee Titans today.  There's value with the Titans, who have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall all against playoff contenders.  They suffered one-score losses to the Seahawks, Texans and Chargers.  In fact, the Titans have played six straight playoff contenders, so this is a huge step down in class for them and a great opportunity for them to get a win.

The Browns are coming off a 26-8 home loss to the 49ers last week.  They certainly won't be all that motivated to face the Titans.  And the injuries are bad for the Browns right now.  They are without three starting offensive linemen in LT Jones, RT Conklin and RG Teller.  Sanders has no chance against this fierce Tennessee defensive line, which is the strength of their team.  The Titans are very healthy with only C Cushenberry and CB Armour-Davis out this week.  Bet the TItans Sunday.

15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -5.5

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Baltimore Ravens.  After winning five straight games all by 7 points or more, the Ravens suffered a massive letdown on Thanksgiving Day with a 32-14 home loss to the Bengals as 7.5-point favorites.  No question getting Burrow back helped the Bengals, but it was a comedy of errors by the Ravens as they fumbled going into the end zone for a touchdown as part of their 5 turnovers.

It was Jeff Monken's worst play-calling game of the season as the Ravens got too pass-happy against the Bengals.  Now they will get back to running the football against a Pittsburgh defense that has been shockingly bad against the run.  The Steelers allowed 249 rushing yards to the Bills last week in a 26-7 home loss.

This Pittsburgh offense is even worse with a banged-up Rodgers at QB and no weapons.  The Steelers managed just 166 total yards against the Bills, who also have a bad defense.  Pittsburgh ranks 27th in total offense at 281.7 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  Compare that to the Ravens, which averaged 317.2 yards per game and 5.9 per play and the Ravens have the much better offense.  Those numbers include all the games missed by Jackson, too.

Pittsburgh is 28th in total defense allowing 365.1 yards per game.  This isn't your classic Mike Tomlin defense, in fact it's probably the worst one he's ever had.  It's an old, banged up defense.  The Steelers will be without DE Derrick Harmon and SS Kyle Dugger, plus they have eight defenders on IR already.  The Ravens should be able to get whatever they want against them.

Baltimore is one of the healthiest teams in the entire NFL.  The return to health since the bye week has made all the difference during this 5-1 run.  The offense has scored at least 23 points in five of their last six games and easily should have topped that number against the Bengals if not for the five turnovers.  The defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in six consecutive games.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Seattle Seahawks -6.5

The Atlanta Falcons had a chance to get back in the NFC South title race last week with a win.  Instead, they lost on a last-second field goal to the lowly Jets to fall to 4-8 on the season and out of contention.  They have suffered gut punch after gut punch with two OT losses and a missed XP in a 1-point loss to the Patriots during their 1-6 SU & 2-4-1 ATS run in their last seven games.

I don't think the Falcons get back up off the mat this week after that last-second loss to the Jets.  It's the type of loss that beats a team twice.  And the Falcons in their current state have no chance of keeping this game competitive against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks.

The Falcons were already without QB Michael Pennix Jr. and WR Drake London.  They were hopeful to get London back this week, but now that they are out of playoff contention he's not going to go.  They have nine players out or on IR on offense.  The defense is worse with 12 players out or on IR.  They have allowed 26.0 points per game in their last six games.

The Seahawks are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS this season.  They average 6.2 yards per play on offense and allow just 4.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play which is the best mark in the NFL.  They have no weaknesses and one of the best defenses in the NFL.  This healthy defense is showing what it's capable of holding the Rams to 249 total yards and the Vikings to 162 total yards in two of their last three games.  They held the Titans in check for three quarters with a three-touchdown lead before letting go of the rope in the 4th with the game in hand.  They didn't make that mistake last week in a 26-0 shutout of Minnesota.

The Seahawks are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  Their defense wasn't healthy early but it is now and wreaking havoc on teams.  This is a big step down in class for Sam Darnold and this Seattle offense that has been a little disappointing in recent weeks against the Rams, Titans and Vikings, which are three great defenses.  They will get back going here indoors against this bad Atlanta defense that just allowed 27 points to the Jets last week.  This has blowout written all over it given all the factors and I can't believe we are getting Seattle as less than a TD favorite.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Bucs UNDER 42

This will be a rematch from one of the ugliest games of the season in New Orleans in their first meeting on October 26th.  The Bucs beat the Saints 23-3 in a game that saw just 487 yards of total offense.  The Bucs only had 212 yards while the Saints had 275 yards.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I love backing UNDERS in the 2nd meeting in these divisional matchups as a result.

The Saints are broken on offense.  They rank 30th in scoring at 15.2 points per game, 26th in total offense at 296.6 yards per game and 29th at 4.9 yards per play.  But they have an underrated defense, one that ranks 12th in total defense at 314.6 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.

This combination of a terrible offense and underrated defense has led to the Saints going 7-0-1 UNDER in their last eight games overall.  They have gone for 44 or fewer combined points with their opponents in all eight games, and 40 or fewer in six of them.  This total of 42 is pretty high for a game involving the Saints right now.

The Bucs are also broken on offense right now.  Baker Mayfield is playing through injury, and he's doing so without two of his best weapons in Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan.  His best lineman in LT Tristan Wirfs is banged up and questionable.  The Bucs went UNDER the total in their last two games with 41 combined points with the Rams and 37 with the Cardinals.

Mayfield was injured in a 34-7 loss to the Rams.  The Bucs managed just 203 total yards in that game.  He returned last week and the Bucs managed just 20 points and 279 total yards against the Cardinals, one of the worst defenses in the NFL that was giving up big points and yards to everyone prior to that game.  

The Saints will hold the Bucs in check, too.  And a pretty much fully healthy Bucs defense will make life tough on a Saints offense that is missing RB Alvin Kamara and RT Taliese Fuaga.  Tyler Shough is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and WR Chris Olave is nowhere near 100% even though he is expected to play.  Points will be hard to come by for both teams in this one.  

The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Bucs and Saints with 36 or fewer combined points in six of those eight meetings.  The Saints rank dead last (32nd) in red zone TD percentage (38.7%) while the Bucs rank 25th (50%).  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Mavs OVER 223

The Mavericks scored 120.5 points per game in their four games prior to facing the top defensive team in the NBA in the Thunder last night in a 132-111 loss.  They are finding some great chemistry with Flagg, Nembhard and Davis in the lineup.  Nembhard had 15 points and 13 assists against Miami and he had 28 points and 10 assists against Denver.  Flagg has had 35, 24, 22 and 16 points in his last four games.  Davis had 32 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets and 17 points and 17 rebounds against the Heat. 

Because of the blowout nature of that loss to the Thunder, no starter even played 30 minutes for the Mavericks.  They should still be very fresh tonight and ready to run.  Anthony Davis has said he will play even though it's the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They will likely still be without Lively II and Gafford, their two big men who are key for them defensively.  They have had to go more small ball without them which is why they are 4-1 OVER in their last five games with 224 or more combined points in all five.

The Rockets are coming off a 117-98 home win over the Suns last night.  The blowout nature of that win also allowed the Rockets to rest their starters in the 4th.  It was a disastrous shooting game for the Suns who were without Devin Booker.  The Suns shot 39% from the floor and 5-of-36 (14%) from 3-point range which kept it under the total.

Steven Adams has already been ruled out for this game on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The Rockets will have to go more small ball tonight, which will favor the OVER.  They could also get Alperun Sengun back from an illness that kept him out last night.  The Rockets rank 4th in offensive rating this season.  The Mavericks rank 6th in pace and will control the tempo at home tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Duke/Virginia ACC Championship No-Brainer on Virginia -4

Virginia beat Duke 34-17 on November 15th on the road in their first meeting this season.  The Cavaliers outgained the Blue Devils 540 to 255, or by 285 total yards.  It wasn't even as close as the 17-point final would indicate as Virginia was by far the superior team.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

I know Virginia was fortunate early in the season with a lot of close wins, but there has been nothing fortunate about their last two wins.  They won that game by 17 over Duke while outgaining them by 285 yards, and last time out they handled rival Virginia Tech 27-7 as 8-point home favorites.  They outgained the Hokies 380 to 197, or by 183 total yards.

This Virginia defense is balling out here down the stretch.  The Cavaliers have allowed 21 points or fewer in six consecutive games and an average of 16.2 points per game during this stretch.  They have allowed an average of 229.5 yards per game in their last four games.  And that's the difference in this game.  Duke has one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Blue Devils rank 101st in scoring defense at 29.4 points per game, 114th in total defense at 414.2 yards per game and 117th at 6.2 yards per play.

Duke is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week here with no late-season bye.  They have a tired defense which just gave up 468 total yards to Wake Forest last week, which has one of the worst offenses in the ACC.  It was a misleading final as the Blue Devils were outgained by 90 yards but were +4 in turnovers.

Virginia got a bye before its regular season finale against Virginia Tech.  That makes the Cavaliers the much fresher, prepared team for this game.  The ACC wants Virginia to win because if Duke wins they will be left out of the college football playoff, and the ACC would be in jeopardy of not getting a single team in the 12-team playoff.  I'm not saying Virginia will get all the calls, but I'm not saying they won't, either.  They don't need the calls as they are by far the superior team and will prove it once again Saturday night.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* Indiana/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +4.5

The Ohio State just put an end to their 4-game losing streak to hated rival Michigan in a 27-9 road win last week.  I actually think they wanted that win more than they will want to win the Big Ten Championship Game here against Indiana.  If there was ever a team to have a letdown in a title game, it would be Ohio State.

The Buckeyes know even if they lose to Indiana they will still likely get a 1st-round bye in the 12-team playoff.  I question their motivation as a result.  I also question their strength of schedule as they have breezed through one of the easiest slates you can imagine.  They avoided Oregon, Indiana and USC this season.  Against the best team they played in Texas, they only won 14-7 at home and were outgained 336 to 203 by the Longhorns, or by 133 total yards.

Indiana is the real deal this season. The Hoosiers had to go on the road for their two toughest games and beat both Oregon and Penn State.  Ten of their 12 wins came by double-digits.  They have numbers that are very comparable to that of Ohio State, and this will feel like a home game being played in Indianapolis.  They have done everything possible to this point to prove their doubters wrong, and a win over Ohio State and a Big Ten title and the #1 seed in the playoff would be the ultimate validation for them.  I have no doubt this game means more to the Hoosiers than it does the Buckeyes, and I think that plays out on the field Saturday night.

Indiana averages 7.2 yards per play on offense and allows 4.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.7 yards per play.  Ohio State is slightly better at 3.1 yards per play, averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 3.8 yards per play on defense.  But the Buckeyes defense hasn't face an offense nearly as good as the one they will be up against Saturday night.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -2.5

Northern Iowa is one of the few teams in the country that returned almost everyone from last season.  The chemistry has been there for the Panthers as a result, leading to a 7-1 start that has featured an upset road win over UC Irvine and a 21-point win over Loyola-Chicago on a neutral.

Wichita State has five new starters this season.  The Shockers are 5-4 this season beating the five worst teams they have faced, and losing to the four best.  They don't have a win over a team that ranks inside the top 225 on Kenpom.  They won't be beating Northern Iowa which slots in at 91st, either.  

This will be a big home-court advantage with a Saturday night game for the Panthers.  They are 5-0 at home this season outscoring opponents by 26 points per game.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on William & Mary +14

William & Mary is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Tribe have opened 8-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to St. John's and to Richmond (by 4).  They are 7-1 ATS in lined games and have played seven of their first 10 games on the highway against the 85th-ranked schedule.  Their up-tempo style is giving teams fits as it's tough to prepare for.

George Washington is also off to a solid 7-2 start this season but it has come against the 279th-ranked schedule.  That's nearly 200 spots easier than the slate that William & Mary has faced.  They also lost to the two of the three best teams they played in McNeese State and Murray State, and only beat USF by 4.  The Revolutionaries have no business being a 14-point favorite tonight.  Bet William & Mary Saturday.

20* CBB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Akron/Tulane OVER 163.5

Akron profiles as a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 44th in the country in adjusted tempo and 23rd in average length of offensive possession at 15 seconds.  They have an elite offense ranking 217th in adjusted offense but a terrible defense at 168th.

Akron is 6-2 OVER in all games this season while scoring 96.2 points per game.  They have topped this total of 163.5 with their opponents in six of eight games against D-1 competition.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games combining for 181 points with Yale, 186 with Milwaukee and 174 with Bucknell.

Tulane is also much better on offense (101st) than it is on defense (314th).  The Green Wave have played a lot of slow-paced teams this season so this will be a shock to the system as Akron pushes 100 after scoring 94 or more points in five consecutive games and seven of its last eight overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Seton Hall/K-State ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on OVER 145.5

This total of 145.5 is way too short for a game involving Kansas State.  The Wildcats are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 34th in adjusted tempo, 55th in adjusted offense and 127th in adjusted defense.  They are 20th in average length of offensive possession at 15 seconds.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The Wildcats are 6-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 148 or more combined points i all eight games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 145.5-point total.  They have gone for 155 or more combined points in seven of their eight games as well.

Seton Hall will be playing its first true road game of the season and will not be able to dictate the tempo like they would at home.  They went for 159 combined points with NC State and 164 with USC, two teams with a similar profile to K-State that like to play fast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Toledo/Oakland OVER 165

Oakland has gone through a transformation under legendary coach Greg Kampe to play a lost faster this season.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 64th in adjusted tempo, 73rd in adjusted offense and 287th in adjusted defense.

The result has been the Golden Grizzlies being a dead nuts OVER team going 7-1 OVER in all games this season with 160 or more combined points in seven of nine games.  They just went for 182 with Montana, 188 with a dead nuts under team in Eastern Michigan, 170 with UCF and 193 with IPFW in four of their last five games.

This figures to be a shootout with Toledo, which like Oakland is much better on offense than defense.  The Rockets rank 90th in adjusted offense but just 303rd in adjusted defense.  They went for 173 combined points with Detroit and 167 with Youngstown State.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo +6.5

Buffalo is 8-0 SU & 6-1 ATS this season and one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Bulls upset Depaul by 13 as 18.5-point underdogs.  They have had the last week off and will be very motivated to return home for just their 5th home game of the season after an 18-point win at Canisius.

St. Bonaventure is one of the more overrated teams in the country after a 8-1 start to the season.  But the Bonnies are just 3-5 ATS in lined games.  They beat Canisius by 19 at home to give these teams a common opponent, whereas Buffalo beat Canisius by 18 on the road.  Five of their 18 wins have come by single-digits.  Bet Buffalo Saturday.

20* BYU/Texas Tech Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 49.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be a rematch from the 29-7 win by Texas Tech over BYU in their first meeting this season that saw just 36 combined points.  Now we have a lot of room to spare in the rematch with this total up at 49.5.

BYU managed just 255 total yards against Texas Tech in that first meeting and won't have any more success than they did the first time against one of the nation's top defenses.  The Red Raiders have allowed a total of 16 points in their last three games for an average of just 5.3 points per game.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense at 11.2 points per game, 7th in total defense at 258.9 yards per game and 3rd at 4.0 yards per play.  They are also 1st in rushing defense at 68.9 yards per game, making this a bad matchup for BYU's offense which is run-heavy.

BYU has a solid defense of its own.  The Cougars rank 17th in scoring defense at 17.8 points per game, 38th at 324.6 yards per game and 34th at 5.1 yards per play.  What they do extremely well is hold opponents out of the end zone as they are Top 10 in the country in allowing touchdowns inside the red zone.  We saw that play out in the first meeting as they held the Red Raiders to five field goals and just two touchdowns.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Duke/Michigan State FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 142.5

Both Michigan State and Duke are dead nuts UNDER teams.  The Spartans rank 307th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted defense.  The Blue Devils rank 237th in adjusted tempo and 6th in adjusted defense.  This game will be played at a snail's pace and nothing will come easy for either offense.

Duke is 8-1 UNDER in all games this season.  The Blue Devils are coming off a 67-66 win over Florida for just 133 combined points with a 157-point total.  Michigan State is 6-1 UNDER in its last seven games overall finishing with 140 or fewer combined points in five of those seven.  They beat Iowa 71-52 for 123 combined points and UNC 74-58 for 132 combined points in their last two games coming in.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Mavs/Thunder NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 229.5

The Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now due to injuries to three of their best defenders in Dort, Caruso and Hartenstein.  The Thunder are 3-0 OVER in their last three games going for 242 combined points with Phoenix, 238 with Portland and 236 with the Warriors, who were without Stephen Curry.  They don't miss a beat offensively without those three and are actually better on that end, but they don't defend nearly as well.

The Mavericks have scored 120.5 points per game in their last four games and are finding some great chemistry with Flagg, Nembhard and Davis in the lineup.  Nembhard had 15 points and 13 assists last game against Miami and he had 28 points and 10 assists the game prior against Denver.  Flagg has had 35, 24 and 22 points in his last three games.  Davis had 32 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets and 17 points and 17 rebounds against the Heat in his last two games.  

This trio is good enough to keep the Mavericks competitive for four quarters tonight as they keep up with the Thunder in a shootout.  The Mavericks rank 6th in pace this season as they have had a change in philosophy to play much faster.  They are also without their two big men in Lively II and Gafford, which makes them play more small ball which favors the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +15.5

There has been a lot of talk recently about the Oklahoma City Thunder and possibly setting the NBA record for most wins in a season after a 21-1 start.  With that hype and attention comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very tough to live up to.

We have seen that play out recently as the Thunder are 1-3 ATS in their last four games needing a late run to win by 12 as 11-point favorites against the Warriors without Curry last time out in their lone cover.  They won by 8 over Minnesota as 10.5-point favorites, by 4 over Phoenix as 14.5-point favorites and by 8 over Portland as 11.5-point favorites.  So they have four straight wins by 12 points or fewer.

A big reason the Thunder are struggling to get margin is also due to injuries to three very underrated players in Hartenstein, Dort and Caruso.  Those are three of their best defenders especially the latter two, and they just aren't guarding teams as well.

The Mavericks have proven just how competitive they can be when Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg and Ryan Nembhard are all healthy and playing at the same time.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with a 4-point loss at Miami, a 10-point loss at LA Lakers, a upset win as 9-point dogs at LA Clippers, a upset win by 10 as 11-point dogs at Denver and a upset win by 10 as 4.5-point home dogs to Miami.

Nembhard had 15 points and 13 assists last game against Miami and he had 28 points and 10 assists the game prior against Denver.  Flagg has had 35, 24 and 22 points in his last three games.  Davis had 32 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets and 17 points and 17 rebounds against the Heat in his last two games.  This trio is good enough to keep the Mavericks competitive for four quarters tonight.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks ML +105

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  Giannis went out after 3 minutes with another calf injury in their last game, and the Bucks still went on to upset the Pistons 113-109.  They are better equipped to handle playing without Giannis right now than they were earlier.

Kevin Porter Jr. recently returned from injury and is an elite scorer.  He had 26 points against the Pistons and 30 the game prior.  Ryan Rollins has been a pleasant surprise and is one of the most improved players in the NBA.  Myles Turner is one of the best big man in the game, AJ Green is a sharp shooter, and the Bucks still have Kuzma and Portis coming off the bench to provide scoring.

The spot is a terrible one for the 76ers.  They hit the game-winner with 0.6 seconds left last night to beat the short-handed Warriors 99-98, a Warriors team that was playing without Curry and Butler while Green only played 9 minutes before going out with injury.  The fact that they still struggled to win that game says a lot.

Now the 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and will be without Embiid, Oubre and possibly George and others.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bucks tonight.  The Bucks also want revenge from a 123-114 (OT) home loss to the 76ers on November 20th without Giannis.  The Bucks are still 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the 76ers.  Bet the Bucks on the Money Line Friday.

15* North Texas/Tulane AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on North Texas ML -125

North Texas has been undervalued all season.  The Mean Green are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming to South Florida, which I actually believe to be the best team in the AAC but they were done in by close losses.  North Texas is easily the second-best team in the conference, and that will be on display tonight as they take down Tulane and are favored for good reason here on the road.

North Texas has been absolutely dominant with the pedal to the medal in the 2H of the season since that loss to USF to put itself in this position to make the 12-team playoff with a win tonight.  The Mean Green are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games beating UTSA 55-17, Charlotte 54-20, Navy 31-17, UAB 53-24, Rice 56-24 and Temple 52-25.  They have taken no prisoners and will keep their foot on the gas tonight.

Tulane has been far less impressive, going 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall and getting by with several close wins.  There is a common opponent in there in UTSA, which Tulane lost 48-26 to.  And when you compare the numbers of these two teams, it's easy to see that North Texas is the better squad.

The Mean Green average 7.4 yards per play on offense and allow 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.1 yards per play which is one of the best marks in the country.  Tulane averages 6.3 yards per play on offense and allows 5.4 per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.  Solid numbers, but a far cry from the two best teams in the conference in North Texas and USF.

North Texas has one of the best passing offenses in the country at 325.7 yards per game through the air behind Drew Mestemaker (70.6% completions, 3,825 yards, 29 TD/4 INT).  They also rush for 186.1 yards per game with tremendous balance.  This is a terrible matchup for Tulane, which in recent games has allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA, 368 to Memphis and 375 to Florida Atlantic.  Their weakness is their secondary, and Mestemaker and company will exploit it.  Temps will be in the 50's tonight with no wind so the forecast favors the Mean Green passing attack.  Bet North Texas Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Knicks OVER 238.5

The Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 26th in defensive rating.  The Knicks rank 4th in offensive rating and just 15th in defensive rating.  The Knicks are an elite offensive team this season under new head coach Mike Brown, but they have slipped a lot defensively.

The Jazz are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall finishing with 247 or more combined points in eight of those 11 games.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games on the 2nd of a back-to-back going for 280 combined points with Indiana at the end of regulation, 251 points with the Warriors and 258 points with the Rockets.  They tend to not miss a beat offensively in these situations and relax even more on defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT Nuggets/Hawks OVER 237.5

The Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team right now without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  The Nuggets rank 1st in the entire NBA in offensive rating, but their defense has taken a major hit.  The Nuggets are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 240 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  They have scored at least 121 points in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  This total of 237.5 is very short for a game involving Denver right now.

Atlanta got good news today with both Jalen Johnson (23.2 PPG) and Kristaps Porzingis (18.7 PPG) participating in shootaround, meaning both are likely to return from injury.  They have missed them playing a pair of low-scoring games in a row in losses to the Clippers and Pistons.  But with them likely back, the Hawks transform into much more of an OVER team with what those two bring to the table offensively.

The Hawks went 8-2 OVER in their previous 10 games in which Johnson played almost all of them, and Porzingis many of them.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Hawks and Nuggets finishing with 251 or more combined points in each of their last four.  This total of 237.5 is very low given the head-to-head history as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Magic OVER 239.5

The Magic are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 254, 267, 247 and 245 combined points in four of their last six games.  Suggs, Wagner and Bane have been playing elite basketball on the offensive end, and now Banchero is back tonight to make the Magic one of the most potent offensive teams in the NBA.

The Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season.  They get leading scorer Norman Powell (25.0 PPG, 45.8% 3-pointers) back from injury tonight and their offense is just so much more potent with him in the lineup.  They missed him last game shooting just 40% from the floor and 11-of-37 (30%) from 3 in a loss at Dallas.

The Magic beat the Heat 125-121 for 246 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  Powell had 28 points to lead the way for the Heat.  Wagner (24), Banchero (24), Bane (23) and Suggs (14) all had solid games for the Magic.  Neither team shot lights out with the Heat at 48% overall and 34% from 3 and the Magic at 47% overall and 40% from 3.  There's actually room for more in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Kennesaw State/Jacksonville State C-USA Championship No-Brainer on OVER 60.5

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on Jacksonville State three weeks ago, 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State two weeks ago, and 48 points and 452 total yards on Liberty last week.  Kennesaw State is averaging 36.0 points per game in its last seven games.  

I like the fact that the Owls play with tempo ranking 27th in the country snapping the ball every 24.3 seconds.  And the offense has been better with a healthy Amari Odom at QB here down the stretch.  He is completing 64.7% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and averaging 9.5 per attempt, while also rushing for 379 yards and 7 scores.

The problem for Kennesaw State is their defense, which gets gashed consistently especially on the ground.  Jacksonville State rushed for 252 yards on them, Missouri State 191 and Liberty 291 the last three games.  They are injured at LB which is a big reason for their problems stopping the run.

Jacksonville State has one of the best RB's in the country in Cam Cook (1,588 yards, 15 TD) and a dual-threat QB in Caden Creel (973 yards, 6.4/carry, 6 TD).  The Gamecocks rank 3rd in the country rushing for 262 yards per game and 12th at 5.5 per carry.  They are going to get whatever they want on the ground against this leaky Kennesaw State defense.

Jacksonville State is 6-2 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The Gamecocks won 37-34 at Western Kentucky last game for 71 combined points.  These teams combined for 71 points despite 5 Field Goals between them, so they actually got bogged down in scoring territory several times.  The Gamecocks racked up 515 total yards on WKU.

Kennesaw State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games going for 61 combined points with Jacksonville State, 75 with Missouri State and 90 with Liberty, which was at 70 at the end of regulation.  They had 579 total yards against Jacksonville State in that first meeting and 8 trips to the red zone, which resulted in just 3 TD and 2 FG as they turned it over 5 times.  So that 35-26 loss was a bit misleading and the Owls have a lot more room to put more points on the board in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Troy/James Madison Sun Belt Championship No-Brainer on James Madison -23

James Madison has been going for style points the entire 2nd half of the season knowing if they won out they would be a candidate to make the 12-team playoff.  They have done their part, and they will continue to go for style points tonight against Troy to impress the committee.  That's why I'm willing to lay this 23-point spread, plus several other reasons.

The Dukes are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS this season.  In their last six games, they beat Old Dominion by 36 at home, Texas State by 32 on the road, App State by 48 at home and Coastal Carolina by 49 on the road.  They continued to tack on points late in all of those games.

Old Dominion is easily the second-best team in the Sun Belt and they beat them 63-27.  Texas State is probably the 3rd-most talented team in the Sun Belt and they beat them 52-20 on the road.  Troy is just a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt team that was fortunate to make the title game due to playing in the worse division, plus a meltdown by Southern Miss which lost its final three games of the season.  Their reward for making the title game? Get beat down by James Madison.

This is a terrible matchup for Troy.  The Trojans can't run the ball ranking 120th in rushing at 109.2 yards per game and 130th at 3.0 yards per carry.  They will have to rely on the immobile Goose Crowder to throw the football behind one of the worst offensive lines in the nation.  The Trojans rank dead last in the country in pressure rate allowed and dead last allowing 4.1 sacks per game.  Old Dominion ranks 5th in the country in pressure rate defensively.

Against the only opponent that is even close to JMU talent-wise, Troy lost 33-0 at Old Dominion three games ago.  They were held to 138 total yards and allowed 503 yards, getting outgained by 365 yards by the Monarchs.  When JMU beat ODU 63-27, the Dukes outgained the Monarchs 624 to 285, or by 339 yards.  Bet James Madison Friday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +3.5

The Dallas Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  But the difference in their turnaround is getting healthy on defense, which got as many as five new players into the lineup out of their bye week.  They will be a force on defense moving forward, especially up the middle with the addition of DT Quinnen Williams.  They have a pass rush with LB Overshown back, and their secondary is shored up with the return of FS Hooker, SS Wilson and also rookie CB Revel Jr. mixing in there.

The Cowboys dominated the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a 33-16 win when they actually took knees at the goal line at the end of the game or it would have been 40-16.  They racked up 381 total yards on a solid Raiders defense, while limiting them to just 236 total yards.  They held them to 27 rushing yards, and they now have one of the best run-stuffing duos with DT's Clark and Williams moving forward.

The Cowboys came back from 21-0 down to beat the Eagles two weeks ago.  It was a comedy of errors that got them down 21-0, but the cream rose to the top eventually and the Cowboys were the better team without question.  They racked up 473 total yards on a very good Eagles defense and held them to 339, outgaining them by 134 yards.  That's an Eagles team that beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and backed it up with a win in KC earlier this season.

Speaking of Kansas City, Dallas won 31-28 as 3.5-point home dogs over the Chiefs on Thanksgiving.  They racked up 457 total yards on the Chiefs and held them to 362 yards, outgaining them by 95 yards.  So the Cowboys are now coming off consecutive wins over the two Super Bowl teams from last year and two of the better teams in the NFL this year.  There will be no letdown here with this being a National TV game and the Cowboys still on the outside looking in in terms of the playoffs.

The Cowboys are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and a wagon when that's the case.  Their defense is going to be one of the best in the NFL moving forward and they are already proving that.  Their offense is fully healthy with the exception of LT Tyler Guyton.  It's a Dallas offense that ranks 1st in total offense at 393.1 yards per game and 2nd in scoring at 29.2 points per game.

The Lions are broken and one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  They are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost 16-9 at Philadelphia as 2.5-point dogs and needed a 59-yard FG just to force OT as 14-point favorites over the Giants at home.  Jameis Winston and the Giants diced up this Detroit defense for 517 total yards and really should have won.  The Lions then lost 31-24 as 3-point home favorites to the Packers last week.

 It's a Detroit defense that is decimated by injuries right now.  FS Kerby Joseph, CB Terrion Arnold, DE Josh Paschal, DT Levi Onwuzurike and LB Zach Cunningham are all out.  SS Brian Branch is questionable.  The Cowboys are going to get whatever they want against this suspect Detroit defense that was shredded by the Giants and Packers at home the last two weeks.

The injuries aren't much better on offense.  The Lions will be without TE Sam LaPorta, his backup TE Brock Wright and WR Kalif Raymond and C Graham Glasgow.  Four starters along the offensive line are all questionable and battling injuries in LT Taylor Decker, LG Kayode Awosika, RT Penei Sewell and C Graham Glasgow.  What a mess.  

But the biggest blow came last week when star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown was knocked out of the Packers game with an ankle injury.  He hasn't practiced yet this week and is very doubtful to play tonight.  Jared Goff is going to be throwing to guys you've probably never heard of in TeSlaa, Kennedy, Lovett, Dwelley, Firkser and Rucci.  He's also going to be under duress all game and hates pressure up the middle, where Quinnen Williams and Frank Clark reside and will wreak havoc against the run and pass up the middle.

Given the health of the Cowboys compared to the health of the Lions, the wrong team is favored here.  I cannot believe this line opened +3.5 on the Cowboys this week.  I would make them a 25* at any underdog price, so +3 as of this writing is good too.  Make sure to put at least 25% of your bet on the Cowboys money line as well.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +12

I love the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  They want revenge from a 149-142 (OT) home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday.  They get their shot at revenge here two days later and the line is basically the same as they were 12.5-point dogs in the first meeting.

This line hasn't been adjusted enough down for the fact that the Pelicans will be the much more motivated team in the rematch.  The Timberwolves will likely just be going through the motions for this one.  They have just one win by more than 11 points in their last seven games, going 4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS in those seven games.  The Pelicans have quietly gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Pelicans OVER 232.5

The Pelicans are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall and coming off 254 combined points with the Lakers and 291 with the Timberwolves, with 258 at the end of regulation.  New Orleans is 6-1 OVER in its last seven home games finishing with 235 or more combined points in five of their last six home games.  The Pelicans rank 29th in defensive rating this season.

The Timberwolves have gone OVER the total in their last threegames finishing with 237 combined points with San Antonio, 234 with Boston and 258 at the end of regulation with the Pelicans.  They have improved drastically on offense ranking 6th in offensive rating this season, largely due to bringing Mike Conley off the bench instead of starting him.  They play a lot faster without him running the offense.

This will be a rematch from Tuesday when the Timberwolves beat the Pelicans 149-142 (OT) in a game that was at 258 combined points at the end of regulation.  We have a lot of room to spare here in the rematch with this OVER 232.5.  

The Pelicans have to play more small ball without Missi and Zion, so they are basically playing four guards around electric rookie Derick Queen.  He had 21 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists in that first meeting as four starters scored at least 21 points for the Pelicans.  It should be more of the same tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are 8-0 SU in their last eight home games.  It will be an electric atmosphere in Toronto tonight with the Los Angeles Lakers coming to town.  I fully expect the Raptors to win and cover tonight for their 9th consecutive home win.

The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic (35.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 8.9 APG) tonight due to personal reasons.  LeBron James is far from 100%, and the Lakers are going to be lost without Doncic tonight.  He is worth more to the spread for them than is being factored into this line.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

20* SMU/Vanderbilt CBB No-Brainer on OVER 166.5

Two elite offensive teams square off tonight in what should be a very up-tempo game featuring a ton of scoring between SMU and Vanderbilt.  This total of 166.5 is too short given the styles of both teams.

Vanderbilt ranks 39th in adjusted tempo, 32nd in average length of offensive possession and 4th in offensive efficiency in the entire country.  They put up 96 points on one of the best defenses in the country in St. Mary's last time out and are averaging 97.9 points per game on 52.1% shooting including 40.2% from 3-point range on the season.

SMU ranks 50th in adjusted tempo, 13th in average length of offensive possession and 46th in adjusted offense.  The Mustangs are scoring 92.0 points per game on 49.6% shooting and 36.1% from 3-point range.  They have the firepower to keep up with Vanderbilt in an up-tempo shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Eastern Washington/Denver OVER 155

Denver is a dead nuts OVER team due to being much better on offense than they are on defense. The Pioneers rank 140th in adjusted offense but 354th in adjusted defense.  They are 6-0-1 OVER in their seven games this season finishing with 154 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 155 is too short for a game involving Denver.

Eastern Washington has a similar profile ranking 136th in adjusted tempo, 187th in adjusted offense and 314th in adjusted defense.  The Eagles are 5-1 OVER in their six lined games this season finishing with 154 or more combined points in five of their seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game between two pathetic defensive teams Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Mavericks OVER 239.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season by a wide margin.  They went for 263 combined points with the Clippers and 273 with the Pistons in their last two games.  They have gone for 239 or more combined points in five of their last six road games.

The Mavericks have changed their philosophy to play faster this season just like the Heat.  The Mavericks rank 6th in pace and have two young guards playing well in Flagg and Nembhard.  They just got Anthony Davis back, and both games with Davis in the lineup were very high-scoring as they combined for 248 points with the Lakers and 252 with the Nuggets.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Rockets OVER 230.5

The Kings rank 25th in defensive rating this season and will be up against a Houston Rockets team that ranks 2nd in offensive rating behind only the Nuggets.  It's safe to say the Rockets are going to hang a big number on the Kings, who will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout in this one.

The Rockets are 11-7 OVER in all games this season averaging 233 combined points with their opponents.  The Kings and their opponents are averaging 237.7 combined points on the road this season.  The Kings and Rockets have combined for at least 230 points in 11 of their last 15 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Pistons/Bucks OVER 229.5

The Bucks are an OVER team as long as Giannis is healthy and on the court.  He is healthy right now, and Kevin Porter Jr. recently returned to the lineup to give them even more scoring punch.  Those two combined for 56 points in a 129-126 loss at Washington in their last game for 255 combined points.

The Detroit Pistons are fully healthy for the first time all season and a deadly offensive team when that's the case.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  The Pistons and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in seven of their last nine games overall, so this total of 230.5 is pretty short for a game involving them right now.

What really stands out is the high-scoring head-to-head history between the Pistons and Bucks as neither team came stop one another.  Indeed, the OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings with 235 or more combined points in all 11 meetings.  That makes for an 11-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 230.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Portland State/South Dakota OVER 158.5

This is a very low total for a game involving South Dakota.  The Coyotes rank 34th in adjusted tempo and 327th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 160 or more combined points seven of their eight games this season with the lone exception being against Air Force, a dead nuts under team that plays slow and has a terrible offense.

Portland State ranks 47th in adjusted tempo and 146th in adjusted defense.  So this game will be played with a lot of possessions as these teams are both Top 50 in tempo, and there won't be much defense being played at all, especially from South Dakota.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Pacers OVER 236.5

The Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team right now without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  The Nuggets rank 1st in the entire NBA in offensive rating, but their defense has taken a major hit.  The Nuggets are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 240 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They have scored at least 121 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.

The Pacers rank 11th in pace and are still trying to play faster even without Tyrese Haliburton.  They are coming off a 135-119 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers for 254 combined points.  You can just imagine what this Denver offense is going to do to them tonight, and they will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on IU Indy/Detroit OVER 183

IU Indy ranks 1st in the country in adjusted tempo playing at a faster pace than anyone else by a mile.  The Jaguars and their opponents have combined for at least 181 points in seven of their nine games this season.  This total of 183 is actually pretty short for a game involving IU Indy, which ranks 360th in adjusted defense to boot.

Detroit will gladly run with them.  The Titans are 75th in adjusted tempo and 326th in adjusted defense.  So this game between two of the worst defensive teams in the country will see as many possessions as possible.  It adds up to a ton of scoring and easily topping this 183-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on IPFW/Oakland OVER 162

Oakland has gone through a transformation under legendary coach Greg Kampe to play a lost faster this season.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 100th in adjusted tempo, 75th in adjusted offense and 261st in adjusted defense.

The result has been the Golden Grizzlies being a dead nuts OVER team going 6-1 OVER in all games this season with 160 or more combined points in six of eight games.  They just went for 182 with Montana, 188 with a dead nuts under team in Eastern Michigan, and 170 with UCF in three of their last four games.

IPFW ranks 152nd in adjusted tempo, 188th in adjusted offense and just 319th in adjusted defense.  So both teams are way better on offense than they are on defense this season.  IPFW has gone for 161 or more combined points in six of its nine games this season.  This total of 162 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah/Cal OVER 153

Utah is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-1 OVER in its eight games this season.  The Utes and their opponents have combined for at least 156 points in six of their eight games.  They rank 133rd in adjusted tempo, 118th in adjusted offense and 153rd in adjusted defense.  They have some elite scorers on offense but don't play a lick of defense.

California also likes to play faster ranking 136th in adjusted tempo while being better on offense (64th) than defense (81st).  The Golden Bears are 3-1 OVER in their last four games, and they have finished with 152 or more combined points in four of their last five games.  They even beat UCLA 80-72 for 152 combined points against a Bruins team that plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* UConn/Kansas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UNDER 144

This game will be played at a snail's pace with elite defense.  UConn ranks 313th in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted defense.  Kansas ranks 240th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted defense.

Kansas will be without leading scorer Darryn Peterson (21.5 PPG) tonight and has had to rely even more on defense without him.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall finishing with 144 or fewer combined points in five of those six, including 133 or fewer in four of them.

UConn is 3-0 UNDER in its last three games overall despite playing two great teams who both like to play fast.  They went for 135 combined points with Illinois and 138 with Arizona while also going for 121 with Bryant.  This total of 144 has been set too high tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +5.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming to the Nuggets.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four road games during this stretch.  They are actually playing better without JA Morant.

Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr. have been dominant inside for the Grizzlies.  And they will have a huge advantage with those two in the paint over the Spurs, who remain without Victor Wembenyama and Stephon Castle.  They are playing Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk big minutes because of it, and that is the worst big man combo in the NBA.

I also think the Spurs in a letdown spot of the schedule.  They miraculously pulled off the 139-136 win in Denver against the short-handed Nuggets to clinch their spot in the NBA Cup quarterfinals.  They promptly lost at Minnesota 125-112 their next time out, and they won't be motivated to beat the Grizzlies tonight, either.  They return home from a 4-game road trip and will be dealing with the distractions of missing Thanksgiving on the highway and trying to make up for it back home.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Pelicans OVER 234

The Pelicans are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall and coming off 254 combined points with the Lakers.  New Orleans is 5-1 OVER in its last six home games finishing with 235 or more combined points in four of their last five home games.  The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rating this season.

The Timberwolves have gone OVER the total in their last two games finishing with 237 combined points with San Antonio and 234 with Boston.  They have improved drastically on offense ranking 8th in offensive rating this season, largely due to bringing Mike Conley off the bench instead of starting him.  They play a lot faster without him running the offense.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Pelicans and Timberwolves.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Florida/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 157.5

Duke is a dead nuts UNDER team going 7-1 UNDER in its eight games this season finishing with 151 or fewer combined points in six of its eight games.  The Blue Devils rank 199th in adjusted tempo and 5th in adjusted defense.  They rank 361st in average length of defensive possession at 19.1 seconds making opponents work hard just to get a shot up.  They are allowing just 58.8 points per game this season on 34% shooting.

Florida lost all its good guards from the team that won the national title last year.  The Gators are a much worse offensive team as a result and having to rely more on defense this season.  Their top two scores are F/C's in Concon and Haugh.  They only have two guards barely averaging double-digits scoring in Fland (12.0 PPG, 38.2% shooting) and Klavzar (10.6 PPG, 40.4% shooting).  They are really lacking in the shooting department.

That helps explain why Florida is 5-1 UNDER in its last six games overall.  The Gators want to play fast, but they just can't do so as efficiently as they did last year with this poor guard play.  But the Gators haven't missed a beat defensively ranking 10th in the country in adjusted defense.  Duke will slow this game down to a crawl controlling the tempo at home.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on William & Mary +6.5

William & Mary is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Tribe have opened 7-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to St. John's and to Richmond (by 4).  They are 6-1 ATS in lined games and have played six of their first nine games on the highway against the 124th-ranked schedule.  Their up-tempo style is giving teams fits, and it will give Duquesne fits tonight, too.

Duquesne is 5-2 this season with an upset loss to Northwestern.  All five wins came against teams ranked outside the Top 200 and they needed OT to beat Queens.  They have played the 347th-ranked schedule in the country.  This is a bad team that will get exposed tonight.

Duquesne is allowing 80.3 points per game this season with defense being optional.  That's real poor when you consider how weak their schedule has been.  They can't be trusted to be a 6.5-point favorite here against a better William & Mary squad.  Bet William & Mary Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Cornell/George Mason OVER 153

Cornell is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Big Red rank 11th in adjusted tempo, 7th in average length of offensive possession, 101st in adjusted offense and just 252nd in adjusted defense.  They are 9th in effective FG percentage (61.1%) and 9th in 3-point percentage (41.7%) on offense.

The Big Red are 4-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 159 or more combined points in six of their seven games, including 173 or more in five of them.  This total of 153 is very short for a game involving Cornell.

I realize George Mason likes to play much closer, but the Patriots won't mind running with the Big Red.  The Patriots are 79th in adjusted offense, 80th in effective FG percentage and 39th in 3-point percentage.  They have a trio of very good guards in Mincy (19.6 PPG), Troutman (12.3 PPG) and Long (12.3 PPG) that will relish this opportunity to put up big numbers on this sad Cornell defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Suns/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 13-6 OVER in all games this season, including 4-1 OVER in their last five games combining for 248 or more points in four of those five.  The only game that went under was a home-and-home situation against the Jazz in the 2nd meeting with familiarity leading to it.

The Lakers are a perfect 9-0 OVER at home this season finishing with 228 or more combined points in all nine home games, and 234 or more combined points in each of their last six home games.

The Suns profile as more of an OVER team in their current state.  They just got Grayson Allen back in the lineup and they have been without his scoring for seven games.  Allen takes a lot of pressure off Devin Booker to provide the offense.  Mark Williams is healthy and great on the offensive end as well.

The Suns are 2-0 OVER in their last two games combining for 242 points with the Thunder and 242 points with the Nuggets.  It will be more of the same tonight in a shootout with the Lakers.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Mavs/Nuggets OVER 233

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  They are all offense and no defense right now.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall going for 240 or more combined points in all four games.

Nikola Jokic has been dominant again this season leading the Nuggets to ranking 1st place in offensive rating, scoring 123.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Nuggets have now scored 122 or more points in nine of their last 10 and 12 of their last 14 games overall.  They are a wagon on offense this season.

The Mavericks have turned into more of an OVER team this season ranking 6th in pace as Jason Kidd has embraced playing with more pace.  The injury report also makes the Mavs more of an OVER team right now playing without two big men in Lively II and Gafford, which makes them play more small ball.  Anthony Davis is back healthy and will form a great 1-2 punch with Cooper Flagg on the offensive end when he's in the lineup.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Giants/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The New York Giants are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Giants are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 47 or more combined points in six of those seven games, including 51 or more in five of them.  They have a healthy offense but a banged up, terrible defense.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.7 points per game in their last six games.  They will be without LB Thibodeaux again today.  Their defense is gassed after a 34-27 (OT) loss at Detroit.  They racked up 517 total yards and played great offensively, but they allowed 494 total yards and couldn't get a stop in OT after a 27-27 tie going into it.

The Giants won't be getting many stops against the Patriots, either.  The Patriots have scored at least 23 points in all nine games during their current 9-game winning streak.  Drake Maye is among the MVP favorites, and he is getting the most out of his ample healthy weapons right now.  The Patriots rank 7th in scoring offense at 26.5 points per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play.

The Giants are once again be forced to try and keep up in a shootout, and I have faith in their offense to be able to punch back.  Jaxson Dart returns from a concussion here and should be ready to go.  There's not much difference between him and Jameis Winston.  The Giants have scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.  The offensive is pretty much fully healthy right now with the exceptions of the guys they lost to IR early in the season.

I expect the Patriots to get to 28 or more in this one and the Giants to score at least 20 for a 8th consecutive game.  It will be cold in New England tonight, but there is no wind and no precipitation so the forecast looks good for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Magic OVER 239

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season playing as fast as possible.  In their last two meetings with the Magic last season they combined for 252 and 248 points.

The Magic have transformed into a dead nuts OVER team without Paulo Banchero.  They have to play more small ball and they play a lot faster while also sharing the ball more.  The Magic are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 230 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They went for 247 combined points with Philadelphia, 267 with Boston and 254 with New York in three of their last four games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -6

The Miami Heat are 13-7 SU & 12-8 ATS this season.  They are as healthy as they have been all year right now and primed for a big effort tonight hosting the Los Angeles Clippers, who are 5-15 SU & 5-15 ATS.  The Clippers have been the most disappointing team in the NBA, and they are not healthy at all right now.

The Heat are without Beal, Jones Jr. and Bogdanovic.  They are coming off consecutive upset home losses to two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Mavericks and Grizzlies, who were both short-handed when they beat them as well.  They have now lost four straight with the other two being blowout road losses to the Lakers by 17 and Cavs by 15.  Another blowout road loss will be their fate tonight.  Bet the Heat Monday.

15* Broncos/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington +6.5

The Denver Broncos are one of the most fraudulent 9-2 teams I've ever seen.  But because of that misleading record, the Broncos are now nearly TD road favorites over the Washington Commanders this week.  We'll gladly 'sell high' on the Broncos and 'buy low' on the Commanders in this one.

The Broncos have won three straight games by exactly 3 points to improve to 7-2 in one-score games this season.  They have six wins by 4 points or less!  They have simply been fortunate in close games, which is why I say they are nowhere near as good as their record.  Their offense has taken a step back with Bo Nix, and they play a very conservative brand relying on the strength of their team which is their defense.  That conservatism makes it difficult for them to get margin.

The Broncos have only played four true road games all season so they have benefited from an easy schedule.  They are 2-2 SU in those true road games with the two wins coming by 4 at Philly after overcoming a 17-3 deficit and by 3 at Houston after CJ Stroud got knocked out early.  Asking them to go on the road here and win by a TD or more to beat us is asking too much.

I've been fading the Commanders a lot lately simply because they were decimated by injuries.  But they are coming off their bye week and get a lot of key guys back from injury this week that they were missing.  Their best playmaker in WR Terry McClaurin is back, their best defensive lineman in DT Daron Payne is back, and they get back FS Will Harris in the secondary from IR.

Dan Quinn has no quit in him, and he will have the Commanders ready to go this week in this National TV spot on Sunday Night Football.  While the bye came at the perfect time for the Commanders, it came at a poor time for the Broncos.  They had a lot of momentum going into the bye with a last-second win over the rival Chiefs.  I suspect the Broncos were 'fat and happy' over the last two weeks after beating the Chiefs, and they will come out of the bye sluggish and rusty knowing that they have a commanding lead in the division.

The Broncos have actually trailed in all 11 games they have played this season.  They are playing with fire and will eventually get burnt.  Bet the Commanders Sunday night.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Chargers -9

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Chargers.  They suffered a blowout loss at Jacksonville in their last game.  They were a tired, beat up team that desperately needed a bye week and they got that bye last week.  Now they come out of the bye almost as healthy as they have been all season, and they are refreshed and ready to make a playoff run.

It starts with a blowout home victory over the hapless Las Vegas Raiders, who get blown out on a regular basis.  The Raiders are 1-9 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only win coming against the Tennessee Titans (1-10), the only team with a worse record than them this season.  Six of Vegas' nine losses have come by double-digits.  That includes a 14-point home loss to the lowly Cleveland Browns last week.

Chip Kelly was the scapegoat, but there's no hope for this Las Vegas offense no matter who is calling plays.  The offensive line is decimated with injuries playing without both starting tacklers in Kolton Millwer and Jackson Powers-Johnson.  RG Jordan Meredith is questionable as well.  They traded away their best receiver in Jakobi Myers, and now TE Michael Mayer is out.  Geno Smith is washed, and opposing defenses basically just have to lock in on stopping RB Ashton Jeanty and TE Brock Bowers.  You know the Chargers have prepared to do just that for the last two weeks.

The Chargers have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 10th in scoring defense at 21.6 points per game, 5th in total defense at 286.1 yards per game and 8th at 5.3 yards per play.  The Chargers are fully health on defense coming out of the bye week and will be one of the best stop units in the NFL moving forward as long as that's the case.  They'll be up against a Raiders offense that ranks dead last (32nd) in scoring at 15.0 points per game, 30th at 268.9 yards per game and 30th at 4.9 yards per play.

The Chargers have elite talent on offense and will be healthier on the offensive line coming out of the bye.  They rank 12th in total offense at 347.3 yards per game and 12th at 5.7 yards per play.  They should have their way with a Raiders defense that is losing motivation by the week due to the shortcomings of their offense.  It's a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd in scoring at 25.2 points per game, allowing at least 24 points in seven of their last nine games, and 30-plus points five times during this stretch.

Jim Harbaugh owns the Raiders.  He is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in his three meetings with the Raiders as the coach of the Chargers with the three wins all coming by 11 points or more.  Justin Herbert is 20-9-1 ATS in his career against AFC West opponents, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS in his last nine division starts.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets/Jazz OVER 232

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace and 27th in defensive rating. The Jazz are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 247 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  

The Jazz are 8-2 OVER in their 10 home games scoring 128.4 points per game and allowing 127.6 points per game, combining to average 256 points per game.  This total of 232 is very short for a Utah home game.

That's especially the case when you consider the Rockets will be getting back leading scorer Kevin Durant (24.6 PPG) from a 2-game absence due to a family matter today.  The Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating scoring 122 points per 100 possessions.  The Rockets are without Finney-Smith, Eason and could be without Adams who is questionable, and those are three of their best defenders.  It means more playing time for scorers in Sheppard and Holiday.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Rockets and Jazz finishing with 231 or more combined points in seven of those eight meetings, including 239 or more in six of them.  This is also a very low total for this matchup.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans +4.5

The Houston Texans have fought their way back from a 0-3 start to get to 6-5 this season and back in the playoff race.  But they still trail the Colts by two games in the AFC South, and their best chance of making the playoffs is to win the AFC South.  That makes this a 'must win' game for them to pull within one game of the Colts for first place with the tiebreaker.  A loss and they are pretty much done.

The Texans have won their last three games even without CJ Stroud as Davis Mills has held down the fort nicely in his absence.  But Stroud returns this week at the perfect time with the Texans coming off a mini-bye week after beating the Bills at home last Thursday.  He gets extra time to get re-acclimated into the offense.

The Texans have the best defense in the NFL, and they've even been playing without do-it-all CB Jalen Pitre for the last few games due to a concussion.  Like Stroud, Pitre returns to the lineup this week, and now the Texans are one of the most healthy teams in the league on both sides of the football.  They are remarkably healthy with all 22 starters they had on their depth chart at the start of the season now starting this week.

The Colts benefited from an easy schedule to get off to an 8-2 start this season.  They took a step up in class last week and lost to the Chiefs.  It was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Chiefs outgained the Colts 494 to 255, or by 239 total yards.

Daniel Jones popped up on the injury report with a fibula injury last week, and it turns out it's partially fractured and he will be playing through it.  He won't have the same mobility that he had when everyone was calling for him to win MVP early in the season.  Jones is now back to his former self, the one that was terrible with the Giants.  The Colts are reliant too much on RB Jonathan Taylor to move the football.  Star TE Tyler Warren popped up on the injury report as questionable Saturday with an illness, too, and things are just starting to fall apart a little for the Colts right now.

Jones and Taylor have no chance against this Houston defense, which ranks 2nd in scoring at 16.5 points per game, 1st in total defense at 264.3 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play.  The Colts rank 23rd in total defense at 342.7 yards per game and will be without DT DeForest Buckner again this week.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Houston has just one loss in its last six meetings with Indianapolis.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Panthers OVER 45

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  They have a respectable offense with a lot of playmakers, but their defense is terrible and decimated by injuries right now.  They have no chance of slowing down this high-powered Rams offense, who will lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket by hanging a big number on Carolina.

This total is lower than it should be due to both teams coming off low-scoring games.  The Rams benefited from Baker Mayfield getting injured last week.  It was a brutal beat for over backs as the Rams and Bucs combined for 38 points at halftime, but only combined to score 3 points after intermission.  The Rams sat on the ball knowing backup QB Teddy Bridgewater could do nothing to move the football.  The Rams won't have that luxury this week and will have to keep scoring as Bryce Young and the Panthers have shown time and time again they will keep coming.

The Panthers are coming off a 20-9 loss to the 49ers.  That game was also fluky.  Brock Purdy threw 3 INT and almost all of them were deep in Panthers territory to take away points.  Bryce Young threw a INT at the 1-yard line on 1st down to take a TD off the board.  It was a fluky result and should have seen more combined points than it did.  But we'll take advantage here and bet the OVER in a 'buy low' spot off two teams coming off unders last week.

The Rams rank 6th in scoring offense at 27.8 points per game, 9th in total offense at 358.4 yards per game and 7th at 5.9 yards per play.  Matthew Stafford is the MVP of the league, and he has his full compliment of weapons for this one with Adams, Nacua and Williams plus Tutu Atwell returns from injury this week.

The Panthers will be without three starters on defense this week.  They were already without leading tackler Chrstian Rozeboom (91 tackles), but now they will be without their best CB Jaycee Horn and starting SS Tre'Von Moehrig.  Horn suffered a concussion against the 49ers last week, and Moehrig is suspended for punching Jauan Jennings in the balls.  They can't afford to be without these guys if they want any chance of slowing down this Rams offense.

Carolina and its opponents have combined for at least 49 points in five of its last nine games.  The Rams will be without starting CB Quintin Lake, plus FS Kamren Kitchens and NT Poona Ford are questionable.  Young will find some success against this Los Angeles secondary and I look for the Panthers to keep coming to get us this OVER.  Temps will be in the 50's with no wind, so scoring conditions are good.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +3

Just looking at this from a line value perspective, it's clear there's value on the Jets +3.  The Falcons were 2-point road underdogs last week to the New Orleans Saints.  Now they are 3-point road favorites over the Jets.  I have the Jets and Saints power rated about the same, so this 5-point adjustment in favor of the Falcons has gone too far.

That was a fluky 24-10 win at New Orleans.  The Saints missed 2 FG's and scored 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They simply got nothing out of their scoring opportunities, while the Falcons got one big play to blow it open.  That misleading final has the Falcons overvalued this week.

Remember, the Falcons are still without two of their best players in QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Drake London this week.  It's. Falcone team that had lost five straight prior to that win over the Saints, including two OT losses.  It's a tired Atlanta team playing for an 8th consecutive week now with a couple OT losses sprinkled in.  Injuries remain a problem down two O-Line starters and possibly a 3rd, plus 9 defenders on IR or ruled out.

Kirk Cousins played fine indoors in perfect elements in New Orleans.  It will be a different story here outdoors in the elements in New York.  There is a 100% chance of precipitation and double-digit winds forecast with gusts up to 30 MPH.  His lack of arm strength will be much more noticeable here.

What makes the Jets grossly overvalued is the wild stat where they don't have a INT all season, and they have forced just one turnover.  That is unheard of and just shows how unlucky they have been.  The Jets rank great from a success rate perspective defensively.  They are 14th in total defense at 321.6 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.  They held the Ravens to just 241 total yards last week.

Look for Breece Hall and this Jets rushing attack to have a lot of success against the Falcons this week.  The Falcons rank 26th against the run at 133.1 yards per game and 23rd at 4.6 yards per carry.  This is simply a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate.  I have the Jets favored at home here.

The Falcons are 11-23-1 ATS following a win since 2020.  Teams coming off a win that ended a 5-plus game losing or more are just 6-15 SU & 8-11-2 ATS over the last five years.  Tyrod Taylor is 11-2-1 ATS as an underdog in his career when the team he is playing for is under .500.  The Falcons are 0-4 SU in outdoor games this season getting outscored by 11.8 points per game in those four losses.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +5.5

The weather will be similar to the last time Brock Purdy traveled to Cleveland a few years ago.  It was a rainy, windy game where he finished just 12-of-27 for 125 yards with a INT and a fumble in a 19-17 road loss.  Purdy is coming off a 3 INT game against Carolina in his first game back from injury.  He is notoriously bad in poor weather games like this one.

Temps will be in the 30's with 25 MPH sustained winds and gusts of over 40 MPH at times.  The total for this game had cratered to 35.5 as of this writing, but the spread has not cratered with it.  The lower the total the more value there is on the underdog, and boy has there been value on the Browns as a home underdog all season.

Indeed, the Browns are a perfect 4-0 ATS at home this season.  They lost by 1 to the Bengals as 4.5-point dogs with Joe Burrow.  They upset the packers as 7.5-point dogs.  They crushed the Dolphins 31-6 as 2.5-point favorites.  And they hung right with the Ravens in a 7-point loss as 7.5-point dogs.

Shadeur Sanders made his first start for the Browns last week and led them to a 24-10 win at Las Vegas.  He at least gives them the threat of the deep ball as Dillon Gabriel gave them nothing in that department.  It was a move the Browns should have made a long time ago to see what they had in Sanders, and he at least gives them a little more life.

But this comes down to this Cleveland defense, which has been dominant at home.  The Browns are allowing just 14.0 points per game, 235.3 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play at home this season despite facing some very good QB's in Lamar, Burrow, Love and Tua.  Cleveland is a house of horrors for good teams traveling on the road.  The Browns are actually 13-5 SU at home against teams that are above .500 on the season.

The 49ers are a tired, injury-ravaged team that hasn't had their bye yet.  That makes this spot even worse for them on a short week after beating the Panthers at home on Monday Night Football.  They will be playing for a 13th consecutive week and their 4th road game in 6 weeks with a lot of travel involved in between, plus the distraction of Thanksgiving Week.

This is a bad, bad San Francisco defense.  The 49ers allowed 488 total yards to the Cardinals two weeks ago, 42 points to the Rams three weeks ago, 24 points to the Giants four weeks ago and 475 total yards to a bad Texans offense five weeks ago.  This defense has been much worse on the road, allowing 22.7 points per game, 372 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.

The injury situation isn't any better for the 49ers on defense this week, either.  They were already without DE Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner, DE Gross-Matos and DE Jackson.  Now they will be without two more starters this week as DE Okuayinonu and LB Bethune have been ruled out.  The Browns have a dominant offensive line, and that offensive line should win the battle at the line of scrimmage against this decimated 49ers defense.  That will be the difference in the game.  The 49ers only rush for 99.2 yards per game (26th) and 3.6 per carry (31st) this season so they have struggled to move the ball on the ground.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* Wyoming/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -7.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Hawaii after a 38-10 loss at UNLV coming out of their bye last week.  The Rainbow Warriors will want to make amends for that performance in their final regular season game on Senior Night.  I look for them to make easy work of Wyoming tonight.

Hawaii is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season.  That includes a 38-6 beat down of San Diego State in their last home game, and SDSU is one of the best teams in the conference.  I think the Rainbow Warriors were fat and happy going into their bye week off that win and didn't show up with the same level of focus at UNLV.  They will be refocused tonight.

Wyoming has one of the worst offenses in the country.  The Cowboys are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing 24-7 to San Diego State, 24-3 to Fresno State and 13-7 to Nevada.  So they have been held to a total of 17 points in their last three games combined.

The Cowboys don't have the firepower to keep up with the Rainbow Warriors, especially since their two best playmakers suffered injuries in their last game and will now be out for this game.  They will be without leading receiver Chris Durr Jr. (46 receptions, 513 yards, 4 TD), and their next-best receiver only has 227 receiving yards so it's a huge loss.  They will also be without their top two RB's in Samuel Harris (552 yards) and Samuel Scott (400 yards).

I just don't know where the offense is going to come from for Wyoming in this game.  I also question their motivation after getting upset by Nevada last week to fall to 4-7 on the season and eliminated from bowl contention.  I think they treat this trip to Hawaii more like a vacation than a business trip.  It's all business for the Rainbow Warriors tonight.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -3.5

This is a terrible spot for the Detroit Pistons.  They had their 13-game winning streak snapped with a 3-point loss at Boston.  Then last night they had their hopes of winning the NBA Cup come to a painful end with a 3-point home loss to the Orlando Magic.  

I don't expect the Pistons to show up at all tonight, and there's a chance they rest some guys playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 5th different city in 8 days.  Cade Cunningham played 40 minutes last night and is a real candidate to sit out.  Four of five starters played at least 30 minutes.

The Heat are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  They are also as healthy as they have been all season with Tyler Herro (26.5 PPG) returning for the last two games and forming chemistry with his new teammates in this new up-tempo scheme that fits him well.  The Heat are fully healthy now with Powell and Wiggins back and only Jacquez listed as questionable.  He has played in all 19 games this season despite popping up on the injury report multiple times so he is likely to go.

Miami playing at the fastest-pace in the entire NBA will certainly test these tired Detroit legs.  This is one of my favorite spots of the entire season so far, and I fully expect the Heat to win in a blowout.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* UCLA/USC NBC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 58.5

USC is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Trojans rank 11th in scoring offense at 37.2 points per game, 5th in total offense at 479.2 yards per game and 6th at 7.2 yards per play.  This despite playing a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in Big Ten play.

The Trojans will come close to covering this total on their own against a UCLA defense that has allowed 48 or more points in three of their last four games to really let go of the rope.  The OVER is 4-0 in UCLA's last four games as a result where they are allowing 45.0 points per game in those four.

It looks like Nico Iamaleava is back at QB this week and he at least gives this UCLA offense a chance.  This is also a big step down in class against this USC defense after having to face Washington, Ohio State and Indiana defenses in three of their last four.  USC is decimated with injuries on defense and just allowed 42 points to Oregon last week.

The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 58 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings and 61 or more in five of them.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Look for both offenses to let it all hang out in their final game of the regular season with really nothing at stake for either team.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Northwestern/Illinois FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between Northwestern and Illinois.  Temps will be in the 30's with 20 MPH sustained winds, gusts up to 40 MPH, and a 100% chance of snow in Champaign tonight.

These are two very good defenses with Northwestern allowing just 21.0 points per game and Illinois allowing just 24.2 points per game.  The Wildcats rank 131st out of 136 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.3 seconds.  The Fighting Illini are in no hurry either ranking 89th in tempo.  This will be a classic defensive battle in the Big Ten in the elements today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this Northwestern +7.5 ticket.  Temps will be in the 30's with 20 MPH sustained winds, gusts up to 40 MPH, and a 100% chance of snow in Champaign tonight.

Illinois needs to be able to throw the ball to be effective on offense, and it won't be able to throw the ball today in these conditions.  The Fighting Illini have struggled running the football all year.  They rank 108th in rushing at 132.2 yards per game and 102nd at 3.8 yards per carry.  Northwestern has been solid against the run allowing 141.8 yards per game.

With this game being played mostly on the ground, it really favors the Wildcats.  They are the better running team ranking 44th at 174 rushing yards per game and 35th at 4.8 yards per carry.  The Fighting Illini allow 127 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry.

These are two very evenly-matched teams overall so this 7.5-point spread is rich.  Northwestern outgains opponents by 17.3 yards per game while Illinois outgains foes by 17.7 yards per game.  Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series with the road team going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rice/South Florida OVER 57.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.3 seconds.  They never take their foot off the gas and that has been evident all season with their games flying over the totals because they keep scoring late into games.

The OVER is 7-2 in USF's last nine games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all nine games, making for a 9-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the country in scoring offense at 42.2 points per game and 1st in total offense at 497 yards per game.

Rice sits at 5-6 on the season needing one more win for bowl eligibility.  That means the Owls are going to keep coming late into this game even if they are down big.  They will keep trying to score and will likely have to increase their tempo in the 2H.  Rice is quietly 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall finishing with 71 or more combined points three times against similar teams to USF in North Texas (80), UConn (71) and UTSA (74).  

The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night in Tampa with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Maryland/Michigan State OVER 48.5

There is a ton of bad weather across the country with snow and windy conditions especially in the Midwest.  Books have listed this total like it will be played outdoors in those elements.  But that's not the case today as this game will actually be played in the dome at Ford Field in Detroit Michigan on a fast track.  This total of 48.5 is too short tonight as a result.

I love the fact that it will be played indoors, but I also love the fact that both Michigan State and Maryland have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  There will be no defensive intensity from either team as a result, and I think a shootout will ensue as both teams unload the entire playbook in this 'meaningless' game.

Maryland just allowed 45 points to a poor Michigan offense at home last week.  The Terrapins have now allowed 34 or more points in four of their last six games overall and it's not like they've played many good offenses during this stretch.  This is a very bad Michigan State defense as well ranking 113th in scoring allowing 30.1 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee/Akron OVER 168

Akron profiles as a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 54th in the country in adjusted tempo and 25th in average length of offensive possession at 14.9 seconds.  They have an elite offense ranking 26th in adjusted offense but a terrible defense at 137th.

Milwaukee also likes to play fast ranking 103rd in adjusted tempo and 74th in average length of offensive possession at 16 seconds.  The Panthers are also much better offensively (165th) than they are defensively (279th).  This game has shootout written all over it tonight.

Akron is 4-2 OVER in all games this season while scoring 94.9 points per game.  The Zips are coming off a 97-94 loss to Yale in regulation and 191 combined points.  They have topped this total of 168 with their opponents in four of six games against D-1 competition.

Milwaukee is 4-2 OVER in all games this season.  They went for 171 combined points with Indiana, 176 with Hampton, 164 with Little Rock and 195 with Dominican.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Oregon/Washington CBS No-Brainer on Washington +7

The Washington Huskies are playing their best football of the season here down the stretch with consecutive blowout wins over Purdue 49-13 and UCLA 48-14.  The Huskies are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and ready to pull off the upset against Oregon today.

Oregon is really banged up right now at WR and offensive line.  We've seen the Ducks struggle against some mediocre Big Ten teams on the road this season.  They needed a last-second FG to beat Iowa 18-16 and needed OT to beat Penn State.  I think this will easily be their toughest road test of the season today.

Washington QB Desmond Williams Jr. is one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  He is completing 72% of his passes for 2,721 yards while averaging 9.1 per attempt.  He has also rushed for 569 yards and 6 scores as one of the best dual-threats in the nation.  I think he's ready for his flowers on the National TV stage today giving the Ducks all they can handle.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Kennesaw State ML -115

Kennesaw State gets into the C-USA Championship Game with a win today.  While the Owls will be max motivated to capture their 9th win of the season and make that title game, the Liberty Flames are just ready for their season to be overall.

The Flames have lost three consecutive games to Missouri State, FIU and Louisiana Tech to fall to 4-7 on the season and out of bowl contention.  What a major disappointment for a team that everyone pick to win Conference USA this season.

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on fellow C-USA title contender Jacksonville State two weeks ago and 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State last week.  They will hang a big number on a Liberty defense that has allowed 30-plus points in three of its last four games, and I don't think this Flames offense can keep up.  Bet Kennesaw State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* C-USA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kennesaw State/Liberty OVER 55

Kennesaw State's offense is a juggernaut this season.  The Owls put up 579 total yards on fellow C-USA title contender Jacksonville State two weeks ago and 41 points and 500 total yards on Missouri State last week.  They will hang a big number on a Liberty defense that has allowed 30-plus points in three of its last four games to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

Liberty's offense has come to life here down the stretch averaging 32.2 points per game in its last five games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Flames' last five games with 57 or more combined points in four of those five games.  This total of 55 is too low, especially since Kennesaw State is the best offense they will have faced during this closing stretch.

Kennesaw State is averaging 34.0 points per game in its last six games.  I like the fact that the Owls play with tempo ranking 27th in the country snapping the ball every 24.4 seconds.  And the offense has been better with a healthy Amari Odom at QB.  He is completing 65.2% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and averaging 9.4 per attempt, while also rushing for 307 yards and 6 scores.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with no wind and no rain today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Penn State/Rutgers UNDER 56

Both Penn State and Rutgers sit at 5-6 this season needing one more win for bowl eligibility.  Only one team can make it, and I think this game will be played very close to the vest as a result.  Neither team will want to make the big mistake with what's at stake.  This total of 56 is too high.

That's especially the case with Penn State involved.  The Nittany Lions have a suspect offense and an elite defense.  Penn State and its opponents have combined for 52 or fewer points in six consecutive games to close out the season.  This total of 56 is too high for a game involving the Nittany Lions.

This Rutgers offense has been terrible when playing some of the better defenses in the Big Ten.  The Scarlet Knights are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall largely due to being held to 19 points or fewer in four of those six games, including 13 points or fewer in three of them.  They will get nothing against this Penn State defense, either.

Penn State ranks 111th in the country in tempo and will slow this game to a crawl while controlling it with its running game.  That will keep the clock moving and limit possessions for this Rutgers offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/West Virginia OVER 52.5

This is a very low total for two teams that play as fast as West Virginia and Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers rank 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.9 seconds under Rich Rodriquez.  The Red Raiders rank 22nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds.  That's impressive considering they have been blowing almost everyone out, so they never take their foot off the gas.

West Virginia will not be going to a bowl game so this is their 'national championship'.  Rodriquez will pull out all the stops here with trick plays and everything he can throw at Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers will keep coming late in this game since it's their last game, so getting the necessary points we need in the 4th quarter will be on the table if we need them.

Texas Tech will come close to covering this total on its own with an offense that ranks 7th in scoring at 42.6 points per game and 18th in total offense at 481.6 yards per game.  The Red Raiders should have their way with a WVU defense that ranks 86th in scoring at 29.2 points per game and 68th in total defense at 394.4 yards per game.

Freshman QB Scottie Fox Jr. has really played well here down the stretch for the Mountaineers since taking over four games ago.  They nearly upset TCU, he led them 45 points against Houston, 29 points against Colorado and threw for 353 yards against Arizona State's vaunted defense last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Toledo/Central Michigan UNDER 45.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between Toledo and Central Michigan today.  Temps will be in the 20's with double-digit wins and a 100% chance of snow during the game.

This game will also be played close to the vest as both Toledo and Central Michigan have a chance to make the MAC Championship Game.  I think both teams will be very conservative with what's at stake, and it will lead to more ball control offense and more punts to try and not make the big mistake.

Central Michigan ranks 135th out of 136th teams in tempo snapping the ball every 31.3 seconds.  Only Ohio State has been slower, and Ohio State plays with big leads every week so it makes sense.  CMU plays slow no matter what.  They also keep the ball on the ground with 43.2 rush attempts per game compared to just 18.1 pass attempts.  That keeps the clock moving and favors UNDERS.

Toledo is in no hurry, either, ranking 88th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.1 seconds.  The Rockets boast one of the top defenses in the country.  They rank 5th in scoring defense at 13.0 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 241.9 yards per game and 2nd at 3.8 yards per play.  They allow just 93.2 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry this season.

Central Michigan ranks 38th in scoring defense at 22.8 points per game and 38th in total defense at 353.8 yards per game.  So these are two of the best defenses in the MAC with a lot at stake and two teams that like to play slow.  This sets up for a low-scoring, defensive battle in the elements today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Jazz OVER 242

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.  The Kings also profile as an OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  This figures to be one of the biggest shootouts of the season tonight especially with both teams playing relaxed basketball after already being eliminated from advancing in the NBA Cup.

The Jazz are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 251 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The Jazz are 7-2 OVER in their nine home games scoring 128.4 points per game and allowing 128.6 points per game, combining to average 257 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons -3

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They finally had their 13-game winning streak come to an end with a 117-114 loss in Boston.  But it will take zero effort for them to refocus here considering this is a must-win for them if they want to advance in the NBA Cup.

It's not a must-win game for Orlando, although they'd rather win this game than rely on point differential to advance.  But the Magic are in great position from a point differential perspective at +61 during their 3-0 start.  So they can still lose this game and advance on point differential as as none of the contenders are within 28 points of them.  In the back of their minds they know they are advancing either way.

The Pistons are 7-1 at home this season while the Magic are just 4-5 on the road.  The Pistons beat the Magic 135-116 in their last home meeting on October 29th earlier this season.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -8.5

The New York Knicks (2-1) are max motivated tonight.  They need to win to capture Group C, otherwise they will be eliminated.  They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Miami Heat (3-1).

The Milwaukee Bucks (2-1) lose out on the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Heat so their only chance of advancing is on point differential.  But they know they are essentially eliminated unless they win this game by 50, which isn't happening.  They are only +13 in point differential and trailing everyone above them by anywhere from 11 to 48 points.  They also need both Cleveland and Detroit to lose tonight, and both are favored.

Knowing their fate is pretty much already sealed, I don't expect the Bucks to bring back Giannis tonight.  He was questionable in their last NBA Cup game and didn't play, losing at Miami to lose out on the tiebreaker with the Heat now.  That was basically their 'last stand' in this tournament, and they won't be all that motivated knowing they won it all last year.

The Knicks are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Bucks.  Bet the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5

This is a must-win game for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Raptors have clinched Group A in the NBA Cup with a 4-0 record.  The Cavaliers' only chance to advance is on point differential, so they not only need to win but have massive incentive to win by margin.  They have a +33 point differential trailing Miami (+49), which is 3-1 and locked into that point differential.  At the very least they need to win this game by 16-plus points to catch Miami.

The Atlanta Hawks have already been eliminated from advancing with a 1-2 record.  I question their motivation as a result.  They are coming off a 132-113 road loss to Washington as 11-point favorites in their last NBA Cup game to get eliminated.  They weren't impressive the game prior either with a 3-point win over the Hornets as 8-point home favorites.  I'll gladly back the more motivated team looking for as big of a blowout as possible.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Hawks OVER 236.5

This is a must-win game for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Raptors have clinched Group A in the NBA Cup with a 4-0 record.  The Cavaliers' only chance to advance is on point differential, so they not only need to win but have massive incentive to win by margin.  They have a +33 point differential trailing Miami (+49), which is 3-1 and locked into that point differential.  At the very least they need to win this game by 16-plus points to catch Miami.

The Atlanta Hawks have already been eliminated from advancing with a 1-2 record.  I question their motivation as a result.  They are coming off a 132-113 road loss to Washington as 11-point favorites in their last NBA Cup game to get eliminated.  I question how much they'll be motivated to play defense tonight knowing they are already eliminated.  Meanwhile, the Cavs should be playing as fast as possible to win by as much as possible.  That will benefit the OVER tonight.  

The Hawks are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall.  The Cavs rank 7th in pace while the Hawks rank 10th, so these are two Top 10 teams in pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU/Mississippi State OVER 162.5

SMU Is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 41st in the country in adjusted tempo and 14th in average length of offensive possession at 14.6 seconds.  They are loaded with offensive talent scoring at least 87 points in six of their seven games this season, and 100 or more three times already.

Mississippi State also likes to play fast ranking in the top 1/3 in the country at 118th in adjusted tempo and 78th in average length of offensive possession at 16 seconds.  In their two games against the two best teams they have played like SMU, they lost 96-80 to Iowa State for 176 combined points and lost 98-77 to Kansas State for 175 combined points.  

SMU profiles similarly to K-State with an elite offense and suspect defense.  Miss State really has a suspect defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Texas A&M/FSU OVER 171.5

Texas A&M is a dead nuts OVER team playing 'Bucky Ball' under first-year head coach Bucky McMillan.  The Aggies rank 33rd in the country adjusted tempo and 13th in average length of offensive possession at 14.6 seconds.  The Aggies are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 167 points with Montana, 177 with Manhattan and 204 with Mississippi Valley State.

Florida State also profiles as an OVER team with how fast they play.  The Seminoles rank 7th in the country adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession at 13.8 seconds.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game and more opportunities for points.  This total of 171.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah State +3.5

Utah State has one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  The Aggies are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 22.8 points per game in those five wins.  They will relish this opportunity to knock off Boise State and eliminate them from MWC title contention.

Boise State is without star QB Maddux Madsen and should not be favored by 3.5 points on the road at Utah State without him.  In their first road game without him, they lost 17-7 at San Diego State with 268 total yards.  In the game they lost him, they lost 30-7 at home to Fresno State and finished with 193 total yards.  Their only win since losing Madsen came against Colorado State, which has quit on the season at 2-9 with a fired head coach and in the midst of a 5-game losing streak with four of those losses coming by double-digits.

It's Senior Day for senior QB Bryson Barnes, one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  Barnes is completing 62.2% of his passes for 2,502 yards with an 18-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 644 yards and 8 TD.  He leads a potent Utah State offense that is putting up 41.2 points per game, 490 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play at home this season.  Bet Utah State Friday.

15* CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on San Diego State/New Mexico UNDER 42

This game will be played close to the vest with what's at stake.  A trip to the Mountain West title game is on the line for both San Diego State and New Mexico.  I think both teams will be playing tight offensively, and this will turn into a defensive battle between two of the best defenses in the MWC.  

SDSU ranks 4th in scoring defense at 12.5 points per game, 8th in total defense at 262.4 yards per game and 3rd at 4.1 yards per play.  The Aztecs are led by a defense that is legitimately one of the best in the country.  New Mexico is 54th at 25.0 points per game, 51st at 367.6 yards per game and 55th at 5.6 yards per play with a stop unit that has gotten stronger as the season has gone on.  They have allowed 22 points or fewer in four of their five games during their current 5-game winning streak.

This San Diego State offense is broken.  In their last three games against Hawaii, Boise State and San Jose State the Aztecs have averaged just 16.0 points per game and 269.7 yards per game.  That includes just 76.7 passing yards per game during this stretch.  They lost their best playmaker in WR Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) to injury against Boise State two games ago and haven't had any semblance of a passing game since.

The Aztecs need to be able to run the ball to be successful, making this a terrible matchup for their offense.  New Mexico's biggest strength is a run defense that allows just 105.7 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, ranking 23rd and 18th in the country in those departments, respectively.  They held Air Force's triple-option attack to just 110 rushing yards on 48 carries last week.

This New Mexico offense is not lighting up the scoreboard.  They were held to 20 points by Colorado State and 20 by Air Force in their last two games, which are two of the worst defenses in the Mountain West.  The Lobos also aren't in a hurry ranking 103rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 27.8 seconds.

San Diego State is a dead nuts UNDER team going 8-3 UNDER in its 11 games this season.  The Aztecs and their opponents have combined for 42 or fewer points in seven of their 11 games this season, including 31 or fewer in four of their last five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* CFB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New Mexico +1.5

New Mexico is 8-3 this season including a perfect 5-0 at home.  The Lobos are 5-2 in conference play and fighting to make the MWC Championship Game.  A win over San Diego State here would go a long way in getting them to the title game as they trail the Aztecs by one game and are in a three-way tie for 2nd place.

New Mexico has come up clutch here down the stretch to put itself in this position.  The Lobos have won four consecutive games including a 33-14 home win over Utah State and a 40-35 upset road win against UNLV, a team they are tied with in 2nd place.  The Lobos will be fresh as they had a bye three weeks ago before beating both Colorado State and Air Force.

San Diego State will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and is a tired, banged up team.  In their last road game, they lost 38-6 at Hawaii.  They also lost by 23 at Washington State and have been much worse on the road than they have been at home.

This San Diego State offense is broken.  In their last three games against Hawaii, Boise State and San Jose State the Aztecs have averaged just 16.0 points per game and 269.7 yards per game.  That includes just 76.7 passing yards per game during this stretch.  They lost their best playmaker in WR Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) to injury against Boise State two games ago and haven't had any semblance of a passing game since.

The Aztecs need to be able to run the ball to be successful, making this a terrible matchup for their offense.  New Mexico's biggest strength is a run defense that allows just 105.7 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, ranking 23rd and 18th in the country in those departments, respectively.  They held Air Force's triple-option attack to just 110 rushing yards on 48 carries last week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas -19.5

North Texas (10-1, 6-1 AAC) is in a 3-way tie for 1st place in the AAC.  Only two teams will make it, so the Mean Green are max motivated heading into this game with Temple.  They are not only motivated to win, but to do so with style since the playoff committee is keeping Tulane ranked ahead of them.  And the fact that they are going for style points couldn't have been more obvious than seeing what they've done in recent weeks.

Indeed, North Texas is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Mean Green beat UTSA 55-17 as 4-point home favorites, Charlotte 54-20 as 26-point road favorites, Navy 31-17 as 6.5-point home favorites, UAB 53-24 as 17.5-point road favorites and Rice 56-24 as 18-point road favorites.  They have scored 53 or more points in four of their last five games, which is a clear indication they have been trying to keep scoring late into games and have executed it to perfection.  They are taking no prisoners.

Temple has lost three straight to fall to 5-6 this season.  The five wins have not been impressive as they have come against the five worst teams they have faced in UMass (0-12), FCS Howard, UTSA (6-5), Charlotte (1-10) and Tulsa (4-7).  During their 3-game losing streak they were blown out by 31 at home by TCU and blown out at home by 24 by Tulane.  Now they hit the road here to face a max motivated North Texas team, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

Temple just doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep up with North Texas.  The Owls managed just 14 points and 233 total yards against ECU and 13 points and 204 total yards against Tulane.  North Texas ranks 1st in scoring offense at 45.3 points per game and 1st in total offense at 488.6 yards per game in the entire country.  This is going to be another blowout in the Mean Green's favor.  Bet North Texas Friday.

20* Bears/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Chicago Bears are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 44 points in 11 of their 13 games this season.  This total of 44 is very low for a game involving the Bears right now.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game, 6th in total offense at 369.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Bears rank 27th in scoring defense at 26.5 points per game, 27th in total defense at 362.8 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  Chicago games are averaging 52.8 combined points per game this season.

A lot has been made of the struggles of this Philadelphia offense, but this is the perfect defense for them to get on track against and hang a big number today.  The injuries are ugly for this Chicago defense.  They will be without all three starting LB's in Hyppolie II, Edwards and Sewell.  They will be without two more starters in DE Robinson and CB Stevenson.  The Eagles should get whatever they want on the ground against Chicago.

I trust the Bears to do enough offensively in this one to get us this OVER.  They will likely be playing fast in the 2H in a trailing game state and it will lead to either quick scores or quick turnovers from Caleb Williams.  The Cowboys racked up 473 total yards on the Eagles last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.