25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon PK

The Oregon Ducks are undervalued right now after a five-game losing streak with four of those losses on the road.  They have since rebounded with home wins over Northwestern by 6 and Rutgers by 18.  Now the Ducks take another step down in class here against the Iowa Hawkeyes.

I like the spot for Oregon because they will be playing just their 2nd game in 8 days so the travel to Iowa isn't that big of a factor.  Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes return home after a two-game road trip on the East Coast against Rutgers and Maryland.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 8 days with a lot of travel involved.

Iowa is 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall. Injuries are starting to mount up.  They were already without F Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).  Now G Drew Thelwell (10.5 PPG) is questionable with an ankle injury after missing their last game.

That was a 26-point road loss at Maryland as the Hawkeyes gave up 101 points to the Terrapins.  They are far and away the worst defensive team in the conference ranking 146th in adjusted defense.  Oregon is nearly 100 spots better at 48th in adjusted defense.

The Hawkeyes clearly don't have the same kind of home-court advantage they have in past seasons because fans just aren't supporting this team, and they know Fran McCaffrey is likely out the door after this season.  

The Hawkeyes are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games with their lone win coming against Penn State by a single point.  That's a Penn State team that has lost 11 of its last 12 games.  The Hawkeyes were also upset as 8-point home favorites by Minnesota.  Bet Oregon Wednesday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on St. Thomas/South Dakota OVER 175

South Dakota is a dead nuts OVER team going 19-4 OVER in all games this season, including 10-1 OVER in all home games.  The Coyotes rank 2nd in the country in adjusted tempo and 345th in adjusted defense.

St. Thomas is one of the best offensive teams in the country.  The Tommies rank 47th in adjusted offense and 266th in adjusted defense.  They rank 2nd in effective FG percentage and 5th in 3-point percentage.

In their first meeting this season, the Tommies beat the Coyotes 119-104 for 223 combined points.  So we have nearly 50 points to work with in the rematch.  I don't expect both teams to top 100 points again, but this should still sail over this 175-point total as the books just can't set these South Dakota totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Illinois State ML +102

Illinois State lost 61-57 at Bradley in their first meeting this season.  But the Redbirds shot just 31% overall and 29% from 3-point range.  It was impressive they only lost by 4 when you consider the poor shooting from an Illinois State team that ranks 7th in effective FG percentage and 11th in 3-point percentage in the entire country this season.

I'm expecting positive shooting regression for the Redbirds in the rematch.  Plus, they come in highly motivated for a victory off three straight losses against a brutal schedule.  They also want revenge on the Braves.

Bradley is in the ultimate letdown spot after a 61-59 upset win at Drake, avenging their earlier loss to the Bulldogs at home.  Drake is the top team in the conference so that was a huge win for the Braves.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Illinois State for a 2nd time this season.  Bet Illinois State on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bradley/Illinois State OVER 144

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams not only in the MVC, but in the entire country.  Bradley ranks 4th in effective FG percentage and 1st in 3-point percentage in the nation.  Illinois State ranks 7th in effective FG percentage and 11th in 3-point percentage.

Both teams are sub-par defensively, especially the Redbirds, who rank 260th in adjusted defense.  Bradley won the first meeting 61-57 for just 118 combined points earlier this season.  But neither team shot up to par, especially Illinois State.

The Redbirds shot just 31% from the field and 29% from 3-point range, while the Braves shot just 42% from the field and 22% from 3-point range.  I'm expecting big positive shooting regression from both teams in the rematch.

Illinois State is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 games overall with 159 or more combined points in five of its last six contests.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Belmont PK

It's a good time to 'sell high' on Northern Iowa.  The Panthers have won 5 consecutive games against a pretty soft schedule with three home games and a neutral game.

The Panthers are in a tough spot not after having their game against Murray State pushed back until Monday due to weather.  Now they will be playing their 2nd road game in 3 days.  Belmont will have the rest and preparation advantage after having the last 3 days off.

The Bruins will be motivated for revenge from a 76-70 road loss at Northern Iowa in their first meeting this season.  They shot just 39.3% as a team, 31% from 3-point range and 59% from the FT line, yet still only lost that game by 6.

The Bruins are due some positive shooting regression when you consider they are an elite offensive team ranking 54th in adjusted offense, 25th in effective FG percentage and 9th in 3-point percentage.  They want revenge, have the rest advantage and they should be bigger home favorites tonight as a result.  Bet Belmont Wednesday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Evansville/Indiana State OVER 148.5

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Sycamores are 18-7 OVER in all games this season.  They have combined with their opponents to top this 148.5-point total in 21 of their 27 games this season.

The Sycamores rank 11th in adjusted tempo and will control the tempo playing at home.  They play a Evansville team that has really shown signs of life offensively here down the stretch.

Indeed, the Purple Aces have scored at least 74 points in six of their last nine games overall while going 7-2 OVER in those nine games.  I expect both teams to get to 74-plus in this one as we cash this total with ease.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NC State/UNC ESPN ANNIHILATOR on NC State +10.5

North Carolina is just 3-5 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  None of the three wins were impressive, either.  The Tar Heels needed OT to beat Boston College as 19.5-point home favorites.  They beat Pitt by 1 at home and beat a poor Syracuse team by 6 on the road.

Asking the Tar Heels to win this game by double-digits to beat is is asking a lot with just how poorly they are playing right now.  I know NC State will show up for this game against their biggest rivals.

We saw what the Wolfpack were capable of when they took Duke to the wire on the road a few weeks ago.  They also lost by just 1 at Stanford.

NC State wants revenge from a 63-61 home loss to UNC in their first meeting this season.  They lost by just 2 points despite shooting just 36.9% from the field.  I fully expect them to take the Tar Heels to the wire again in the rematch.  Bet NC State Wednesday.

20* Illinois/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin -3.5

The Wisconsin Badgers have quietly gone 12-1 SU in their last 13 games overall and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are also 12-1 SU at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the conference.

After having an entire week off, the Badgers returned to action on Saturday with one of their best performances of the season in a 94-84 road win at Purdue as 6-point underdogs.  They should still be very fresh for this game against Illinois playing just their 2nd game in 10 days.

While this would usually be a letdown spot off a huge road win, it won't be for the Badgers.  They will have no problem shifting their focus to getting revenge on Illinois, who they lost 86-80 on the road to way back on December 10th.  They went on their 12-1 run directly after that defeat.

Illinois is not playing well right now.  The Fighting Illini are 5-5 SU & 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes home losses to USC by 10, Maryland by 21 and Michigan State by 14.  They are so inconsistent because they shoot a ton of 3-pointers and do so at just a 31.1% clip, which ranks 308th in the country.

This will be the 6th game in 17 days for the Fighting Illini, who are the much more tired team right now.  I think that fatigue showed in their 79-65 home loss to Michigan State over the weekend, and it won't get any easier tonight against a Badgers team motivated for revenge.  Bet Wisconsin Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Air Force +10

The Air Force Falcons are 0-14 SU in Mountain West play this season.  Due to that winless conference record, we are 'buying low' on the Falcons tonight.  I love the spot for them, and this is one of their best chances to get rid of that goose egg against a Wyoming team that is just 4-11 in conference play.

Air Force came close to beating Wyoming in their first meeting this season on January 4th in a 70-65 home loss as 3-point dogs.  Wyoming shot 57.1% overall and 9-of-13 (69.2%) from 3-point range while the Falcons were 5-of-13 (38.5%) from the FT line.  Yet the Falcons still only lost by 5.  Wyoming clearly will not shoot that well again in the rematch.

A big reason I love the spot for Air Force is the massive rest advantage.  The Falcons have had the last week off since losing at UNLV last Tuesday.  Wyoming will be playing its 3rd game in 7 days and started to show signs of wearing down in a 88-53 blowout loss at Colorado State last time out.  The Cowboys also played in altitude in New Mexico the game prior and will now be playing in altitude for a 3rd time in 7 days.  

Wyoming's four conference wins all came by 5 points or less or in OT.  Asking the Cowboys to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Air Force Tuesday.

20* Big East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Butler/Xavier OVER 152

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in Big East action tonight when the Xavier Musketeers host the Butler Bulldogs.  And this will be the first meeting of the season between these teams, so they aren't familiar with one another, which benefits offense over defense.

Butler is 9-0-1 OVER in its last 10 games overall.  The Bulldogs and their opponents have combined for at least 147 points in nine of those 10 games.  The Bulldogs have scored at least 78 points in six of their last seven games as they are thriving offensively right now.  The Bulldogs rank 41st in adjusted offense and 148th in adjusted defense this season.

Xavier is a perfect 7-0 OVER in its last seven games overall.  The Musketeers and their opponents have combined for at least 148 points in six of those seven games.  They have scored at least 74 points in five of their last six games.  They rank 109th in adjusted tempo, 56th in adjusted offense and 55th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado +18

The Colorado Buffaloes are undervalued due to having the worst record in the Big 12 at 1-14.  But the Buffaloes have been much more competitive than that record would indicate.  They have just one conference loss by more than 16 points all season, so 13 of those 14 losses have come by less than this margin.

The Buffaloes are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost by 10 as 14-point home dogs to Houston and by 12 as 17-point road dogs at Kansas.  They did pick up their first conference win over the season over the weekend in a 76-63 home win over UCF.

While that would normally set a team like Colorado up for a letdown spot, that won't be the case here.  The Buffaloes are playing with double-revenge after losing twice already to Iowa State this season.  They lost in Maui and they lost by 10 at home to the Cyclones in their Big 12 opener.  This is the rare time that teams get a chance to face each other for a 3rd time in the regular season.

Iowa State will not be motivated to beat Colorado a 3rd time.  Instead, the Cyclones will be looking ahead to their huge showdown against first place Houston on Saturday.  Iowa State has just one win by more than 15 points in its last seven games.  The Cyclones are overvalued right now, and I question their motivation tonight.  Bet Colorado Tuesday.

15* Purdue/Michigan State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Purdue +4

It's safe to say the Purdue Boilermakers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing two straight games at Michigan and at home to Wisconsin.  I expect one of their best efforts of the season tonight at Michigan State to try and bounce back.

The loss to Wisconsin is easily explainable as the Badgers had an entire week off prior to that game and were the fresher, more prepared team.  They also shot 61.5% from the field, which isn't something the Boilermakers will have to worry about against Michigan State.

The Spartans are overvalued off an upset road win at Illinois where the Fighting Illini shot just 38.1%.  They had lost three of their previous four games with an upset home loss to Indiana, an upset road loss at USC and a road loss at UCLA as well.

Purdue owns Michigan State going 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings with the lone loss coming by 3 points.  That makes for a 10-0 system backing the Boilermakers pertaining to this 4-point spread.  Bet Purdue Tuesday.

20* Duke/Virginia ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia +14

The Virginia Cavaliers are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They won by 16 as 13-point dogs at Pitt, by 14 as 2.5-point home favorites over Georgia Tech and by 3 as 2-point road dogs at Virginia Tech.

The Cavaliers have been playing well for a while now going 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall not once losing by more than 15 points.  They are making a case for interim head coach Ron Sanchez to get the full-time gig moving forward as they are playing very hard for him.

The spot really favors the Cavaliers tonight.  Both teams played on Saturday, so both will have one day to get ready for this game.  However, Virginia had a week off prior to Saturday's game, so they will be playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.  The Blue Devils will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days and their 5th game in 13 days.  Bet Virginia Monday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rutgers/Oregon OVER 153

Rutgers has completed flipped how it plays this season thanks to having two lottery picks in Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, who combine to average nearly 40 points per game.  The Scarlet Knights rank 91st in adjusted tempo, 63rd in adjusted offense but just 101st in adjusted defense as defense seems to be optional for them this season.

We've seen that play out in recent games with Rutgers and its opponents combining for at least 151 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  So this total of 153 is pretty low for a game involving the Scarlet Knights right now.

Oregon also profiles as an OVER team this season.  The Ducks rank 115th in adjusted tempo, 37th in adjusted offense and 51st in adjusted defense.  The OVER is 6-1 in Ducks last seven games overall, including 4-0 in their last four with 156 or more combined points in each of their last three games.

Rutgers is averaging 78.5 points per game in road/neutral games this season and Oregon is putting up 78.7 points per game at home.  I think both teams get close to 80 in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Utah State/New Mexico MWC ANNIHILATOR on Utah State +5.5

The Utah State Aggies are an elite offensive team that are scoring 81.8 points per game on 49.8% shooting on the season.  The Aggies rank 20th in adjusted offense, 14th in effective FG percentage and 110th.

While the Lobos are an improved defensive team this season, the fact that they held Utah State to just 63 points on 37.5% shooting in their first meeting was an absolute fluke.  The Aggies shot 5-of-31 (16.1%) from 3-point range and 10-of-23 (43.5%) from the FT line.  It was far and away their worst game of the season.

They want revenge from that shocking 82-63 home loss to the Lobos.  That was a tough spot for Utah State with just two days to prepare for New Mexico, while the Lobos had the previous six days off and were the fresher, more prepared team.  Now it's the Aggies with an extra day to prepare with the last four days off coming into this one.

I expect the Aggies to be much more efficient on offense in the rematch and get to 80 points, which they have gotten to in seven of their last 11 games coming in.  Utah State is 21-3 SU this season with the other two losses coming by 2 and 3 points.  The Aggies are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season with outright upset road wins at St. Mary's, San Diego State and Nevada.  This is a game the Aggies can win outright.  Bet Utah State Sunday.

15* Creighton/St. John's Big East ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 142.5

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Creighton and St. John's.  Their first meeting this season was the ultimate defensive battle.  Creighton beat St. John's 57-56 at home on December 31st for just 113 combined points.

While I don't expect the rematch to be that low-scoring, I do like think there's value in the UNDER 142.5 today.  St. John's ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency and makes opponents work for everything they get.  The Red Storm are one of the worst shooting teams in the country ranking 234th in effective FG percentage and 353rd in 3-point percentage at 29.2%.

Creighton is improved defensively this season ranking 27th in adjusted defense.  They are 16th in effective FG percentage defense.  The Bluejays are allowing just 68.3 points per game and 40.2% shooting this season.  The Red Storm have been even better allowing 65.3 points per game on 39.9% shooting.

Creighton has allowed 70 points or fewer in eight of its last nine games coming in.  St. John's has allowed 12 consecutive games.  I don't expect either team to reach 70 points in this one.  St. John's and its opponents have combined for 134 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven of its last eight games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Florida Atlantic/Temple OVER 160

The Temple Owls are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 14-0 OVER in their last 14 games overall with 143 or more combined points in all 14 games.  They rank 65th in adjusted tempo and 231st in adjusted defense.

Now Temple faces a Florida Atlantic team that also profiles as an OVER team.  FAU ranks 55th in adjusted tempo, 27th in average length of offensive possession, 67th in adjusted offense and 58th in effective FG percentage.

FAU 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall and rolling offensively.  The Owls scored 94, 94, 79 and 87 points in their last four games.  I think both teams get 80-plus in this one today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Wichita State +8

The Memphis Tigers are overvalued right now laying 8 points on the road to Wichita State.  The Tigers are 21-4 this season and nationally ranked.  They have really struggled to live up to expectations here of late.

Memphis is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  That includes a non-cover in a 61-53 home win over Wichita State as 11.5-point favorites.  Now the Tigers are 8-point road favorites in the rematch, and that's not a big enough adjustment down for flipping home courts.

Wichita State is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now.  The Shockers are 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games overall including road wins at Charlotte and USF, as well as a home win over UTSA.  The Shockers are motivated for revenge and will give the Tigers a run for their money today.  

Four of the last five meetings between Memphis and Wichita State were decided by 8 points or fewer.  The Shockers are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Bet Wichita State Sunday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pepperdine/Gonzaga OVER 160

Gonzaga is a dead nuts OVER team going 16-10 OVER this season.  The Bulldogs are scoring 87.2 points per game overall and 91.1 points per game at home.  They rank 7th in adjusted offense and 47th in adjusted tempo, including 15th in average length of offensive possession.  This is also the worst defensive team of the Mark Few era.

Pepperdine also likes to play fast ranking 69th in adjusted tempo and 216th in adjusted defense.  The Waves have recently gone for 169 combined points with San Diego, 173 with Washington State and 188 with San Diego.

Gonzaga beat Pepperdine 89-82 for 171 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Amazingly, these teams combined for just 11-of-44 (25%) from 3-point range in that game, so there is plenty of room for improvement in the shooting department in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +16

Washington State played St. Mary's about as tough as anyone has here of late in their first meeting this season.  The Cougars lost 80-75 as 6-point home underdogs.  Now they are catching 16 points in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.

St. Mary's even shot 57.7% from the field in that 5-point win over the Cougars.  They aren't going to shoot better than that in the rematch.  I think Washington State matches up well with the Gaels because you need to be able to shoot the ball well over their pack line defense.

Well, Washington State ranks 10th in effective FG percentage and 82nd in 3-point percentage.  The Cougars have the shooters to make St. Mary's pay for slacking off of them.  They have shot at least 49% from the field in 12 of their last 17 games overall.

This looks like a letdown spot for St. Mary's after five straight games against four of the top teams in the conference in Santa Clara (twice), Gonzaga, Oregon State and San Francisco.  They won't be all that motivated to beat the Cougars again.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Kansas State +6.5

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  They have gone 6-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Even the first three losses were impressive falling by 4 to Texas Tech as 7-point home dogs, by 10 at Kansas as 14.5-point road dogs and by 8 at Baylor as 11-point road dogs.

The wins were even better beating West Virginia by 13 as 2.5-point home favorites, Oklahoma State by 28 as 7-point home favorites, Iowa State by 19 as 14.5-point road dogs and Arizona State by 1 as 3-point road dogs.  They ended Iowa State's 29-game home winning streak with that emphatic win, and avoided the letdown in their next game against Arizona State, which was extremely impressive considering they had Kansas on deck so it was the ultimate sandwich spot.

The Wildcats then got their revenge with a 81-73 home win over Kansas as 3.5-point underdogs.  They went on to upset Arizona 73-70 as 3-point home dogs, handing Arizona just its 2nd conference loss of the season.  And the Wildcats cannot afford a letdown here as they have played themselves back on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.

BYU is getting too much respect here.  This is a tough spot for the Cougars having to travel back home after road games at Cincinnati and at West Virginia.  They lost by 18 at Cincinnati which followed up an 11-point home loss to Arizona.  This tough travel schedule with three of their last four games long road trips will have taken its toll.  The Wildcats should have a big advantage in the paint and on the glass against the undersized Cougars.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina +15

Many thought Florida would suffer a letdown the game after upsetting Auburn as 11-point road underdogs.  They showed up and took care of business in a 81-68 road win as 2.5-point dogs at Mississippi State.  This is the spot the letdown occurs Saturday at home against an unranked South Carolina team.

The Gamecocks are 0-11 SU in their last 11 games overall.  One of those losses came 70-69 at home to Florida as 11-point dogs.  So they already proved they could play with the Gators, who won't be all that motivated to beat this team again, especially after playing the cream of the crop in the SEC prior.

South Carolina has been much more competitive than that 0-11 SU record would indicate.  They are actually 5-3-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with a 3-point loss to Auburn, that 1-point loss to Florida, a 5-point loss to Mississippi State, a 4-point loss to Texas A&M and a 4-point loss to Ole Miss.  So they have proven they can play with the class of the SEC.

Another reason I'm fading Florida is injuries to two of its key players.  F Alex Condon (10.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG) is out, while G Alijah Martin (15.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.7 SPG) is questionable.  I wouldn't be surprised if he sits considering it's South Carolina.  The Gamecocks are fully healthy and hungry for revenge heading into this one.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

20* Summit League GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Thomas -7.5

I love the spot for St. Thomas Saturday.  The Tommies want revenge from a 89-78 road loss at Omaha in their first meeting this season.  That was such a favorable spot for Omaha with over a week off to prepare.

Now it's the Tommies in the advantageous rest spot.  They have had the last week off while Omaha only has one day in between games after a 98-85 road loss at South Dakota State on Thursday.  They also lost their previous road game outright as favorites at South Dakota.

St. Thomas may have the best home-court advantage in the conference.  The Tommies are 11-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 18.8 points per game.  They have won each of their last four home games by 12 points or more.

With first place in the Summit League on the line and a huge rest advantage, I'm expecting one of the best efforts of the season from the Tommies.  The tired Mavericks won't be able to keep up playing their 2nd road game in 3 days.  Bet St. Thomas Saturday.

15* Summit League Total DOMINATOR on Omaha/St. Thomas OVER 156.5

A big reason Omaha and St. Thomas are at the top of the Summit League is due to both being so efficient offensively.  It certainly isn't due to defense as Omaha ranks 283rd in adjusted defense while St. Thomas ranks 261st.

St. Thomas is 55th in adjusted offense, 3rd in effective FG percentage and 9th in 3-point percentage.  Omaha is 123rd in adjusted offense, 95th in effective FG percentage and 47th in 3-point percentage.

St. Thomas is 16-6 OVER in all games this season scoring 84.4 points per game overall and 90.2 points pre game at home.  Omaha is scoring 84.3 points per game in conference play.  The Mavericks are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 157 or more combined points in six of those seven games.

That includes a 89-78 home win over St. Thomas on January 23rd that saw 167 combined points.  It should be another shootout in the rematch with St. Thomas hanging a big number on Omaha to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cal Poly/CS-Northridge OVER 166.5

CS-Northridge beat Cal Poly 102-91 for 193 combined points in an absolute shootout in their first meeting this season on December 7th.  And it's not like either team shot the lights out especially Poly, which shot 41.4% from the field and 27.9% from 3-point range.

So we have about 27 points to spare in the rematch to cash this OVER 166.5.  And it will be another up-tempo game between two teams that rank in the Top 10 in the country in pace.  Poly ranks 3rd in adjusted tempo while Northridge ranks 8th in adjusted tempo.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Belmont/Southern Illinois OVER 158

Belmont is a dead nuts OVER team going 18-6 OVER in its last 24 games overall.  That includes 7-1 OVER in its last eight games with 153 or more combined points in all eight games.

Belmont ranks 30th in adjusted tempo, 56th in adjusted offense and 300th in adjusted defense.  The Bruins rank 25th in effective FG percentage on offense and 346th in effective FG percentage defense.  They just allowed 101 points to lowly Valparaiso last time out.

Southern Illinois also likes to push the tempo a little ranking 141st in adjusted tempo.  The Salukis showed they could keep up with the Bruins in a 90-86 road loss on January 8th for 176 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch and another shootout today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Fresno State +8.5

Amazingly, Fresno State is 0-4 SU in OT games this season and 0-3 SU in OT games in conference play.  They managed to get blown out in two of those OT games losing by 11 to Nevada and by 11 at Wyoming.  I think their record in OT games has them grossly undervalued right now.

Fresno State is highly motivated for a victory and has played its best basketball at home this season.  The Bulldogs lost by 8 to Utah State, by 3 to San Jose State, by 5 to Colorado State, in OT to Nevada and by 14 as 14.5-point dogs to New Mexico in their Mountain West home losses this season.  They also beat Air Force by 9.

Now the Bulldogs face a team they can handle in UNLV< who they lost 87-77 to on the road is 15-point dogs in their first meeting this season on December 28th.  UNLV is just 2-5 SU in its last seven games with the two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the conference in Wyoming and Air Force.  Bet Fresno State Saturday.

20* Mississippi State/Ole Miss ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Ole Miss -4

Ole Miss wants revenge from a 84-81 (OT) loss at Mississippi State on January 18th.  Now the Rebels get the rival Bulldogs at home this time around where they are 10-2 SU this season with their only losses coming to Auburn and Texas A&M by a single point.

Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country, and I trust him to make the proper adjustments in the rematch.  While the Rebels are surging right now going 4-1 SU in their last five games with their only loss to Auburn, the Bulldogs are faltering, going 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Rhode Island -6.5

Rhode Island is 12-2 at home this season.  The Rams want revenge from a 70-64 road loss at La Salle on January 25th where they shot just 34.5% from the field.  I like their chances of getting revenge in blowout fashion at home this time around.

La Salle is 3-10 SU & 3-10 ATS in road/neutral games.  The Explorers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four Atlantic 10 road games, losing by 22 at UMass, by 12 at Saint Louis, by 30 at VCU and by 12 at St. Joe's.  Bet Rhode Island Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado PK

Colorado is 0-13 in Big 12 play this season.  It's safe to say the Buffaloes are highly motivated to get that first conference victory, and this looks like their best chance to get it Saturday.  I expect the Buffaloes to take full advantage.

Colorado hung with arguably the two best teams in the Big 12 in Houston and Kansas losing by 10 to the Cougars and by 12 at Kansas in its last two games.  That just shows the potential of this team.  The Buffaloes also have one of the better home-court advantages in the country.

The Buffaloes want revenge from a 75-74 road loss to UCF in their first meeting this season.  The Knights have let go of the rope in recent weeks, going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes double-digit home losses to Cincinnati and Iowa State and a 15-point road loss at Baylor.  

They are 1-4 SU in their last five Big 12 road games, and they have allowed at least 83 points in all six Big 12 road games this season.  The Knights are far and away the worst defensive team in the conference.  This is a tough travel spot for them having to go to altitude in Colorado.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

15* Big Ten Total DOMINATOR on Washington/Penn State OVER 150

This looks like a sneaky OVER game in the Big Ten between two teams that aren't familiar with one another and two teams that like to play fast.  Penn State ranks 50th in adjusted tempo and 40th in average length of offensive possesssion.

Washington ranks 117th in adjusted tempo this season.  These two teams rank in the in the Bottom 5 in the Big Ten in adjusted defense as well.  So both offenses should shine today in an up tempo affair.

The OVER is 4-0 in Washington's last four Big Ten road games including a 93-69 loss at Ohio State for 162 combined points last time out.  Penn State is coming off a 92-67 loss at USC for 159 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on West Virginia/Baylor OVER 134.5

Baylor just lost its only decent interior defender in F Joshua Ojianwuna (7.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG) to a season-ending knee injury.  They also simultaneously got back guards Edgecombe and Love, and now they are even more guard-dominated moving forward.  It should lead to more shootouts.

Baylor is 2-0 OVER in its last two home games with a 91-76 win over UCF and 167 combined points and an 81-70 win over Kansas and 151 combined points.  I expect the Bears to hang a big number on West Virginia today to pave the way in us cashing this OVER 134.5 ticket.

West Virginia has been a dead nuts under team in Big 12 play this season, which is why this total is so low.  But I think the Mountaineers will have a breakout offensive performance today and dominate the glass with plenty of easy put backs. They played a BYU team that profiles similar to Baylor and lost 73-69 for 142 combined points last time out.  

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 140 or more combined points in all seven meetings making for a 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 134.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Illinois State/Indiana State OVER 156

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team going 17-7 OVER in all games this season.  The Sycamores rank 10th in adjusted tempo and 257th in adjusted defense.

Illinois State is 8-2 OVER in its last 10 games overall.  The Redbirds rank 71st in adjusted offense, 6th in effective FG percentage and 15th in 3-point percentage.  They are terrible defensively as well ranking 252nd in adjusted defense.

Illinois State beat Indiana State 85-81 for 166 combined points in their first meeting this season.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  This game should follow suit with the Sycamores controlling the tempo playing at home, and both offenses getting whatever they want.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Purdue CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +6

The Wisconsin Badgers are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The two losses came by 2 at UCLA and by 8 at Maryland in a game they led the entire way until late.

The Badgers have shown they have no problem going on the road going 6-1 ATS in Big Ten road games.  I love the spot for them today considering they have had the last week off since a 74-63 win at Iowa last Saturday.  That has given them a full week to rest up and to prepare to beat Purdue.

The Boilermakers don't have that same luxury.  They just played on Tuesday and will be playing their 3rd game in 8 days.  They lost 75-73 at Michigan.  The Boilermakers have been vulnerable at home recently with a 5-point win over Indiana as 12-point favorites and an outright loss to Ohio State as 10-point favorites.

These teams are pretty evenly matched, so getting 6 points with Wisconsin is a nice value when you consider their rest and preparation advantage.  It's also worth noting that 7 of the last 8 meetings between the Badgers and Boilermakers have been decided by 6 points or fewer.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on George Mason -3

George Mason is 20-5 this season and one of the best teams in the country that not many know about.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country as well as they are 14-1 SU at home this season with their lone loss coming by a single point.

What makes the Patriots such a trustworthy team is the way they get after it defensively.  The Patriots rank 13rd in adjusted defense.  They are tough to come back on once you get down because they play slow and make you work for everything you get on offense.

That's bad news for St. Joe's, which ranks 128th in adjusted offense and 53rd in adjusted defense.  What really stands out is just how poor the Hawks have been on the road this season.  The Hawks are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in Atlantic 10 road games including upset losses to Duquesne and Loyola-Chicago as well as a 16-point loss at Saint Louis.

All 14 of George Mason's home wins this season have come by at least 3 points, and 13 of them by more than 3 points.  I expect the Patriots to be fully focused knowing they get a week off after this game.  Bet George Mason Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wright State/Milwaukee OVER 154

Wright State and Milwaukee consistently play in shootouts when they get together.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 157 or more combined points in all five meetings, none of which went to overtime.

Four of the five meetings have seen 174 or more combined points an an average of 172 combined points, which is 18 points more than this posted total of 154.  Milwaukee won 95-79 in their first meeting this season on January 22nd for 174 combined points.

Milwaukee will control the tempo playing at home.  The Panthers rank 75th in adjusted tempo and are scoring 83.6 points per game on 49.5% shooting at home this season.  Wright State is scoring 77.0 points per game on 48.8% shooting this season.  The Raiders rank 128th in adjusted offense, 37th in effective FG percentage and 17th in 3-point percentage while playing faster than average.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* WCC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oregon State/Portland OVER 143.5

Because Oregon State plays at a slow tempo, their totals are always adjusted down.  But what the betting market fails to realize is the Beavers are uber efficient on offense, which is what makes them such a dead nuts OVER team.

Indeed, Oregon State is 12-2 OVER in its last 14 games overall with 143 or more combined points in 12 of those 14 games.  That includes 146 or more combined points in eight of their last nine games coming in.  Oregon State ranks 50th in adjusted offense and 117th in adjusted defense.  The Beavers are 40th in effective FG percentage and 43rd in 3-point percentage.

Portland ranks 123rd in adjusted tempo and 334th in adjusted defense.  The Pilots will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  The OVER is 7-2 in Portland's last nine games overall with 147 or more combined points in each of their last eight games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 143.5-point total.

Oregon State beat Portland 89-79 at home for 168 combined points in their first meeting this season on December 30th.  So we have nearly 25 points to work with here in the rematch with this total of 143.5 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego/Pepperdine OVER 151

San Diego is 7-3 OVER in its last 10 games with 147 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  The Toreros play fast ranking 42nd in adjusted tempo and 227th in adjusted defense.

They face a Pepperdine Waves team that also likes to play fast ranking 72nd in adjusted tempo and 209th in adjusted defense.  So there should be a ton of possessions in this game.

This is a rematch from a 98-90 win by Pepperdine on January 30th that saw 188 combined points.  Neither team shot better than 49% from the field, so it wasn't fluky at all.  And with this total at 151 for the rematch, we have 37 points to spare.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +10

The Utah Jazz avenged their 132-113 road loss to the Lakers on Monday with a 131-119 home win over the Lakers on Wednesday.  Now they have their sights set on revenge on the Clippers after losing 130-110 to them on the road on Saturday.

That loss was anticipated considering the Jazz were without Markkanen and Collins and they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a OT loss in Phoenix the nights prior.  The Clippers had the previous night off and were motivated from a 3-game losing streak.

Now the Jazz should be much healthier and much more competitive in the rematch.  The Clippers have already announced they will sit Kawhi Leonard after a win over the Grizzlies last night at home, a Memphis team that was missing JA Morant.  The Clippers have to travel so this is a worse spot for them.  

The Jazz get to stay at home with no travel, and they got to rest their starters in the 4th quarter since they were blowing out the Lakers.  I think we get a big effort from the Jazz tonight to stay within this double-digit spread and push for the outright upset.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Clippers/Jazz OVER 224.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when they are as healthy as they are right now.  The Jazz are 5-0 OVER in their last five games going for 250 combined points with the Lakers, 245 combined points with the Lakers, 259 with the Warriors, 262 with the Suns and 240 with the Clippers.

The only player the Jazz might be missing is Collin Sexton, but they are very deep at the guard position with Collier, Clarkson and George filling Sexton's shoes nicely.  The Jazz rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating which is a big reason they are such an OVER team.

The Jazz lost 130-110 to the Clippers on Saturday for 240 combined points.  It's worth noting the Jazz did not have both Markkanen and Collins in that game, and those are arguably their two most important offensive players and it was still a shootout.

The Clippers put up 130 on the Jazz in that game and will likely hang another big number.  They put up 128 on the Grizzlies last night as well.  While Kawhi will not play, they still have plenty of offensive firepower without him, especially since trading for Bogdan Bogdanovic of the Hawks to give them another elite shooter.  These teams combined for 251 points in their previous meeting this season as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Maryland/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska ML -117

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are 28-3 SU at home over the last two seasons.  They are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this showdown with Maryland tonight.

The Huskers are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Illinois 80-74 as 4.5-point home dogs, Ohio State 79-71 as 2.5-point home favorites, Oregon 77-71 as 6.5-point road dogs and Washington 86-72 as 2-point road favorites.

Now the Huskers have their sights set on revenge from a 69-66 road loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season on January 19th.  Maryland has always had huge home/road splits and that is no different this season.  

The Terrapins are 2-4 SU in true road games with one of their wins coming by a single point at Indiana.  They have road losses to Washington, Oregon, Northwestern and Ohio State.  Bet Nebraska on the Money Line Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Rockets UNDER 218.5

Two elite defensive teams square off tonight when the Houston Rockets host the Golden State Warriors.  The Rockets rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating while the Warriors rank 9th.  Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace as well.

That's why it's no surprise these teams have played two extremely low-scoring games in their last two meetings.  The Warriors won 99-93 at home over the Rockets on December 5th for just 192 combined points.  The Rockets got revenge on December 11th in a 91-90 home win for just 181 combined points.

Both teams are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight so there's a chance some key guys rest.  That includes Steph Curry of the Warriors.  But I like this UNDER either way.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Summit League PLAY OF THE DAY on Omaha/South Dakota State OVER 152.5

Two of the best teams in the Summit League square off tonight.  One of the reasons both teams are so good is because they are super efficient on offense.  And I expect both offenses to shine tonight.

South Dakota State ranks 87th in adjusted tempo and 100th in adjusted offense, including 48th in effective FG percentage.  The Jackrabbits are scoring 80.3 points per game overall this season including 89.5 points per game on 52.9% shooting in 11 home games.

Omaha ranks 142nd in adjusted offense and 264th in adjusted defense.  The Mavericks rank 94th in effective FG percentage and 42nd in 3-point percentage.  They are scoring 78.1 points per game overall including 84.3 points per game on 50.2% shooting in conference play.

The OVER is 5-1 in Omaha's last six games overall with 157 or more combined points in five of those six games.  South Dakota State just beat St. Thomas 102-86 at home for 188 combined points last time out.  These teams met on January 11th with Omaha winning 87-80 for 167 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Warriors/Mavericks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -4

The Golden State Warriors look revived since trading for Jimmy Butler.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two games since he joined them with blowout road wins over Chicago by 21 and Milwaukee by 14.

The Dallas Mavericks made a statement in Anthony Davis' first game with his new team in a blowout home win over the Rockets.  But Davis suffered an injury in that game that will keep him out for multiple weeks.

PJ Washington also suffered an ankle injury in that game that kept him out of their next game and have him questionable for this game.  Daniel Gafford suffered an injury last game that will sideline him for multiple weeks.  They were already missing Lively, Martin and Powell, and Exum is questionable.

This is just a brutal break for the Mavericks having all of these key injuries happen at the same time.  There's not much to like about this team outside Kyrie Irving, but he cannot carry them by himself right now.  The Warriors should roll again.  Bet the Warriors Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Jazz OVER 236.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have been a dead nuts OVER team without Anthony Davis.  They are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 230 or more combined points in five of their last six.  They are playing faster and shooting more 3's while simultaneously being much worse off defensively without Davis.

The Utah Jazz are an OVER team when they are as healthy as they are right now.  The Jazz are 4-0 OVER in their last four games going for 245 combined points with the Lakers, 259 with the Warriors, 262 with the Suns and 240 with the Clippers.

The only player the Jazz might be missing is Collin Sexton, but they are very deep at the guard position with Collier, Clarkson and George filling Sexton's shoes nicely.  The Jazz rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating which is a big reason they are such an OVER team.

The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between the Jazz and Lakers with 230 or more combined points in 10 of those 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bucks/Timberwolves OVER 225

Anthony Edwards is questionable but he almost always plays when he has the questionable label.  He was questionable last game and put up 44 points against Cleveland.  He has been questionable in several games here of late and has scored at least 41 points in three straight, so he clearly is fine.  If he's announced in this total will go up.

The Bucks will be without Giannis but are fully healthy otherwise.  They traded for Kyle Kuzma which makes them more of an OVER team.  He is a terrible defender, but he can get buckets.  Kuzma had 21 points on just 9 shots in his last game with Milwaukee.

The Bucks have sailed OVER the total in their two games with Kuzma and without Giannis.  They went for 262 combined points with the 76ers and 236 with the Warriors.  Giannis is their best defender so they miss him on that end just as much.

The Timberwolves are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall with 230 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  Some of their younger players are getting more playing time and they are all offense and no defense, especially Dillingham and Shannon Jr.  The OVER is 5-3 in the last eight meetings with 234 or more combined points in five of those eight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Spurs/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 232.5

De'Aaron Fox is a dead nuts OVER player.  He likes to play fast and push the tempo while making everything easier on his teammates offensively.  But he's not known for his defense, and that's a big reason the Kings were always such an OVER team with him.

The Kings are 4-0 OVER in their first four games with Fox in the lineup.  They combined for 251 points with Atlanta, 233 with Charlotte, 223 with Orlando and 252 with Washington.  Charlotte and Orlando are two of the best under teams in the NBA.

Now the Kings face the Celtics, who rank 4th in offensive rating and will hang a big number on them.  The Celtics will be without Jrue Holiday, who would be tasked with guarding Fox.  Now Fox should have a huge game not having to go up against Holiday.  This total is too low given the trajectory of the Spurs right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Magic UNDER 207.5

Two of the best UNDER teams in the NBA square off Wednesday night.  The Charlotte Hornets are 31-19-1 UNDER in all games this season while the Orlando Magic are 33-22 UNDER in all games.  Injuries are a big reason why both teams have struggled so mightily on offense.

Both rank in the Bottom 3 in the NBA in offensive rating.  The Magic are 2nd-to-last in pace while the Hornets are 23rd in pace.  The Magic are 3rd in defensive rating while the Hornets rank in the top half of the league in defensive rating, a big improvement for them over previous years.

The Hornets are decimated by injuries right now without La'Melo Ball, Mark Williams, Brandon Miller, Grant Williams and Tre Mann.  Those are 5 of their top 6 scorers, and the key is being without Ball as he makes everything go for them offensively.

The Magic are without Suggs and have really struggled without him, showing his importance to this team.  They have even struggled since getting Banchero and Franz Wagner back because Suggs makes everything go.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Hornets and Magic with 204 or fewer combined points in four of those five, including 179 combined points i their last meeting this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Tulsa/Temple OVER 146

The Temple Owls are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 13-0 OVER in their last 13 games overall with 143 or more combined points in all 13 games.  They rank 64th in adjusted tempo and 210th in adjusted defense.

Tulsa is also a terrible defensive team ranking 245th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Hurricane and their opponents have combined for at least 146 points in four of their last six games coming in.

I know Jamal Mashburn Jr. is questionable for Temple, but they didn't have him against Memphis last game and they still put up 82 points in a game that saw a172 combined points.  They also put up 79 points at the end of regulation in their previous game against USF without him.  It would just be a bonus if he returns tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers -6

I've been fading the Iowa Hawkeyes a lot lately especially since they lost F Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG) to a season-ending injury a few games ago.  They really miss his offense and defense both.

The Hawkeyes are 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone win coming by a single point over Penn State, which has lost 10 of its last 11 games.  The Hawkeyes are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season while getting outscored by 16.8 points per game.  They have lost their last four road games all by double-digits.

Rutgers recently got Dylan Harper back from injury and he looks rejuvenated.  He had 28 points to lead them to an upset win over Illinois and 20 points in a hard-fought road loss to Maryland.  With him and Ace Bailey averaging nearly 40 points per game combined, this team could be dangerous moving forward.

This is a big step down in class for the Scarlet Knights and I expect them to take advantage.  Iowa ranks 154th in adjusted defense, far and away the worst defensive team in the Big Ten this season.  The Scarlet Knights should hang a big number on them in a blowout victory.  Bet Rutgers Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado +18

The Kansas Jayhawks are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They have gone just 4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are 1-3 ATS in their last four home games only beating Kansas State by 10 as 14.5-point favorites and UCF by 4 as 12.5-point favorites.

Colorado remains winless (0-12) in Big 12 play.  With that record comes a great opportunity to 'buy low' on the Buffaloes.  They have been much more competitive than that winless record indicates as 11 of the 12 losses came by 16 points or less, or by less than this 18-point spread.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the Buffaloes pertaining to this number.  They only lost by 10 to Houston last time out and will give Kansas a run for its money as well.  Bet Colorado Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +3.5

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  They have gone 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Even the first three losses were impressive falling by 4 to Texas Tech as 7-point home dogs, by 10 at Kansas as 14.5-point road dogs and by 8 at Baylor as 11-point road dogs.

The wins were even better beating West Virginia by 13 as 2.5-point home favorites, Oklahoma State by 28 as 7-point home favorites, Iowa State by 19 as 14.5-point road dogs and Arizona State by 1 as 3-point road dogs.  They ended Iowa State's 29-game home winning streak with that emphatic win, and avoided the letdown in their next game against Arizona State, which was extremely impressive considering they had Kansas on deck so it was the ultimate sandwich spot.

The Wildcats then got their revenge with a 81-73 home win over Kansas as 3.5-point underdogs.  While that would normally set them up for a letdown spot, that won't be the case with No. 13 Arizona coming to town.  Sitting at 12-11 on the season, the Wildcats need every signature win they can get at this point if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.

If anything it's a letdown spot for Arizona, which is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall and coming off a huge 82-73 home win over Texas Tech.  Now the Wildcats have their biggest game of the season on deck against Houston, so this is a clear sandwich spot.  I think this is the perfect time to 'sell high' on Arizona tonight.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/UCF OVER 157.5

UCF is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Knights rank 18th in adjusted tempo and 22nd in average length of offensive possession.  They are also 45th in adjusted offense and just 117th in adjusted defense.  They have great guards who will keep coming.

The OVER is 15-6 in UCF's last 21 games overall.  Two games ago was very concerning in a 93-83 home loss to Cincinnati and 176 combined points.  They allowed the Bearcats to shoot 58.5% from the field.  That's a poor Cincinnati offense that had been held to fewer than 70 points in nine of its previous 10 games.

The Knights followed it up with a 91-76 loss at Baylor for 167 combined points over the weekend.  Now they take on an Iowa State team they lost 108-83 to on the road for 191 combined points in their first meeting this season.  So we basically have 33.5 points to spare here in the rematch with this 157.5-point total.

Iowa State just got its best shooter in Milan Momcilovic (10.6 PPG, 45.5% 3-pointers) back from injury in their last game against TCU and promptly scored 82 points on a very good Horned Frogs defense.  The Cyclones will be able to name their number again in the rematch to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 157.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue/Michigan OVER 151.5

The Michigan Wolverines are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 55th in adjusted tempo, 18th in average length of offensive possession, 24th in adjusted offense, and 7th in adjusted FG percentage.

The Purdue Boilermakers are an elite offensive team ranking 8th in adjusted offense and 12th in effective FG percentage.  They lit Michigan up for 91 points in their first meeting this season in a 91-64 victory for 155 combined points.  I think they will light the Wolverines up again, but Michigan will have a bigger offensive response at home in the rematch and will control the tempo playing at home as well.

Michigan is scoring 86.9 points per game at home this season.  While I don't expect Purdue to get to 91 again in the rematch, they have a really good shot to get to 80 when you consider they have scored at least 81 in four consecutive games now.  The OVER is 5-0 in Purdue's last five games overall.  The OVER is 8-3 in Michigan's last 11 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +9.5

Vanderbilt is 12-1 SU at home this season.  The Commodores have wins over the likes of Texas, Kentucky and Tennessee at home this season.  They should be able to hang with Auburn, and asking the Tigers to win this game on the road by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

I know Auburn will be motivated to bounce back from a 90-81 home loss to Florida as 11-point favorites, but they also have their biggest rival in Alabama on deck Saturday.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them.  I don't think we get their best effort here, and it will take their best effort to even come close to covering this inflated number.  

I know we'll get the best effort from the Commodores with the No. 1 ranked team in the country coming to town.  With that No. 1 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  Bet Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* Jazz/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234

The Los Angeles Lakers have been a dead nuts OVER team without Anthony Davis.  The Lakers are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 230 or more combined points in four of their last five.

The Lakers are playing faster, shooting more 3's, and playing worse defense without Davis.  Now they are expected to get even more offensive help with Luka Doncic making his debut tonight.  LeBron James and Austin Reaves are also probable, and both are huge to them being an OVER team.

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games combining for 259 points with Golden State, 262 with Phoenix and 240 with the Clippers.  They are only missing Collin Sexton tonight, but they are deep at the guard positions with Collier, Clarkson and George to fill his shoes.  They are a terrible defensive team regardless ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Jazz and Lakers with 230 or more combined points in nine of those 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Sacramento Kings +1.5

The Sacramento Kings are right in the thick of the play-in race in the Western Conference.  I like the fact that the Kings are fully healthy right now, and Zach LaVine now has a couple games under his belt with his new team so the chemistry should be pretty good moving forward.

The Dallas Mavericks were extra motivated to beat the Rockets last time out in Anthony Davis' first game with his new team.  They showed that emotion on the court, especially Davis, who was on a mission in their 116-105 win over Houston.

Unfortunately for the Mavs, Davis suffered another injury and now could miss up to a month.  PJ Washington also hurt his ankle and was knocked from that game and is questionable to return tonight.  Lively, Powell and Martin are already out, and Christie and Exum are both questionable.  

The Mavs are a mess in the injury department right now to say the least.  I think they are in a letdown spot off that big win over the Rockets which followed up a bigger road win over the Celtics.  This is the spot they fall flat on their faces due to being deflated from the Davis injury news.  Bet the Kings Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat +6.5

Jrue Holiday is out, and both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both did not participate in shootaround this morning.  That means they are doubtful to play tonight, meaning the Celtics will be without three of their best players.  They should not be 6.5-point road favorites over the Miami Heat if that's the case.

The Heat sit at 25-25 on the season and desperate to make the playoffs.  They are also playing with a chip on their shoulder in the aftermath of the Jimmy Butler trade.  Andrew Wiggins is expected to make his Miami debut tonight and that is a big deal for this team that was lacking proven scorers without Butler.  

I expect a big effort from the Heat tonight with the defending champs coming to town.  It's a great rest spot for the Heat as well coming on on two days' rest.

The Celtics are in a letdown spot after a 131-104 road win over the Knicks on Saturday.  They have been terrible following a win and especially following a cover all season.  Amazingly, the Celtics are 0-18-1 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Heat Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Wizards OVER 236.5

De'Aaron Fox is a dead nuts OVER player.  He likes to play fast and he makes everything easier on his teammates offensively.  But he's not known for his defense, and that's a big reason the Kings were always such an OVER player with him.

The Kings are 3-0 OVER in their first three games with Fox in the lineup.  They combined for 251 points with Atlanta, 233 with Charlotte and 223 with Orlando, which is a dead nuts under team.

Now the Kings face another dead nuts OVER team in the Wizards, who rank 29th in defensive rating and 4th in pace.  They went for 236 combined points with Atlanta and 258 with Cleveland in their last two games coming into this one.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 269, 231, 258 and 260 combined points.  That 269-point effort came in their first meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on San Antonio Spurs -10.5

After consecutive 1-point losses to the Hornets and Magic on back-to-back nights, the San Antonio Spurs will take out their frustration on the Washington Wizards tonight.  The Spurs are fully healthy and now have three games under their belts with De'Aaron Fox in the lineup.  The chemistry should be much better moving forward, starting tonight with a blowout win at Washington.

The Wizards are the worst team in the NBA at 9-43 SU & 21-30-1 ATS this season.  They traded away Kyle Kuzma, and his replacement in Khris Middleton is out.  Marcus Smart is also out, as is Alex Sarr.  Kyshawn George is questionable as well.  The Wizards are in a world of hurt right now playing short-handed.

The Wizards have been particularly bad at home here of late going 0-9 SU in their last nine home games with eight of those losses coming by double-digits.  That includes a 14-point loss to Atlanta, a 38-point loss to the Lakers, a 24-point loss to the Raptors, a 14-point loss to the Timberwolves, a 41-point loss to the Thunder, a 23-point loss to the Rockets and a 12-point loss to the Pelicans.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles +2

Note: Check out my favorite Super Bowl Prop Bets below the analysis. I also recommend a medium-sized wager (15*) on a 6.5-point teaser on Eagles +8/OVER 42 and another equivalent of a 10* on Eagles 1st Half +0.5 (-125). I have also placed a much smaller wager (5*, like a free pick) on Eagles -7.5 Alternate Line (+330) which can all be found at Draft Kings currently.

The Kansas City Chiefs will be going for the first 3-peat in Super Bowl history.  That's a lot of added pressure for them.  This has been easily the luckiest run we've ever seen in the NFL.  The Chiefs are 17-0 in their last 17 one score games.  Their luck runs out in Super Bowl 59.

The Eagles are the worst matchup for the Chiefs of any of their previous Super Bowl opponents of the Patrick Mahomes era.  The Eagles are better across the board everywhere but quarterback.  And I think everyone is sleeping on Jalen Hurts as he had one of the best games of his career the last time these teams met in the Super Bowl.

The Eagles have the better offensive line, the better skill position players, the better running game, and the better defense.  When you consider the Bills closed as a PK at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game, and the Eagles are underdogs on a neutral, this line is simply off.  The Eagles are better than the Bills, and they are a much tougher matchup for the Chiefs than the Bills were.

The one biggest weakness for Kansas City is their run defense, but teams just haven't been able to exploit it.  It's largely due to those teams playing from behind.  The Bills had success running the ball in the 3rd quarter to take the lead, but then went away from it in the 4th quarter which was a big mistake.  We saw the Ravens get pass-happy against the Chiefs in the playoffs last year.

The Eagles won't get pass-happy, they will go run-heavy, and they will be playing from ahead and able to stick with the run.  The Eagles rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing at 186.6 yards per game only behind the Ravens.  They are 5th at 5.1 yards per carry, and they have the best RB in the league in Saquon Barkley to feed over and over again.

Jalen Hurts is a dual-threat who proved his knee wasn't an issue against the Commanders by rushing for three touchdowns.  He would have rushed for another but it was called back by a penalty.  Hurts kills man-to-man defense, which is what the Chiefs run the most of.  

The Chiefs run the 5th-highest rate of man-to-man coverage in the NFL.  Hurts ranks 3rd in QBR against man coverage this season with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  He can also beat man with his legs with defenders' backs turned.  Expect deep shots over and over again to AJ Brown, and Dallas Goedert to take advantage of a Chiefs defense that allowed more receiving yards to TE's than any other team in the league this season.

While I'm confident the Eagles will move the ball at will on the Chiefs on the ground and through the air, what I really like most about this matchup is this grossly underrated Philadelphia defense.  Remarkably, the Eagles have allowed 23 points or fewer in 15 of their last 16 games.  The Chiefs didn't score more than 30 points in any game all season until putting up 32 on a overrated, beat up Bills defense in the AFC Championship Game.

Philadelphia defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has the luxury of getting pressure on opponents without blitzing due to having one of the most dominant defensive lines in the NFL.  He also has one of the best secondary's in the league.  Teams that give Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs trouble are ones that can get pressure without blitzing.

The Texans gave the Chiefs all kinds of trouble in the Divisional Round with a similar defense that can get pressure without blitzing while also boasting an elite secondary.  The Texans held the Chiefs to just 212 total yards and the Chiefs were fortunate to get out of that game with a victory.  

The Eagles do what the Texans do, only better.  Philadelphia ranks 1st in the NFL in total defense at 289.3 yards per game, 1st at 5.0 yards per play and 2nd in scoring at 17.9 points per game.  Mahomes and company haven't seen a defense this dominant all season.  So when the Eagles get the lead, I think they can add to the lead by running the football and controlling the clock, and I think their defense can get the necessary stops to finally prevent a Kansas City comeback.  

Since 2003, teams that had a first-round bye like Kansas City against teams that didn't have a first-round bye like the Eagles in the Super Bowl are 0-10 ATS in 10 tries.  They are 1-8 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last nine tries with the only winning SU team being the Steelers on a last-second TD against the Cardinals in 2009.  Bet the Eagles in Super Bowl 59.

Super Bowl Props: (Listed in order of favorite to least favorite)

DO NOT bet more than your usual bet size on my daily free picks on any of these. My free picks are 5* and my premiums are 25*, 20* & 15*.  Bet accordingly and responsibly. Good luck everyone!

Hurts Anytime TD (-110)

- Hurts has scored a rushing TD in 10 of his last 13 games.

- One game he didn't he got hurt in the 1Q against Washington.

- Tush Push from the 1 is a no brainer.

Barkley Anytime TD (-190)

Barkley O 109.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Barkley MVP (+280)

- If the game plays out as I expect, a heavy dose of Barkley will be the biggest reason the Eagles win.

- Great value here on his MVP odds if you think the Eagles are going to win.

- At least 118 rushing yards in 5 straight games & 7 TD in those 5 games. 25 or more attempts in 4 of 5 games.

- Chiefs weakness is Run D. 149 rushing yards & 5.1 per attempt allowed to Texans. 147 rushing yards and 4.6 per attempt allowed to Bills.

O 7.5 Players with a Rush Attempt (-150)

- Mahomes, Hunt, Pacheco, Worthy, not even including Perine

- Barkley, Gainwell, Hurts and likely Goedert or Smith

- Goedert had 2 rushing attempts for 13 yards against the Commanders.

Perine O 6.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

- Perine at least 8 receiving yards in 14 of his last 15 games.

UNDER 6.5 Total Punts (-128)

- Both teams go for it on 4th down a lot, especially the Eagles. Both teams pretty methodical, ball control offenses too so there should be fewer possessions.

Both teams with 1+ Passing TD & 1+ Rushing TD (+220)

- Feels pretty safe to say Mahomes will get a passing TD, Hunt, Pacheco or Mahomes are likely to get a rushing TD, and Barkley or Hurts are guaranteed to get a rushing TD, so then it comes down to Hurts throwing a TD.  He should find at least one big play in the passing game against this heavy man-to-man Chiefs defense.

Zach Baun O 9.5 Tackles + Assists (-130)

- 10-plus tackles in 7 of his last 13 games.

- Nokobe Dean (128 tackles) lost for the season against Green Bay.

- More falls on Baun's shoulders now.

Hunt Anytime TD (+145)

- Hunt 4 straight games with a TD, taking over lead role from Pacheco especially at the goal line.

Goedert O 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Goedert O 4.5 Receptions (-125)

- Goedert averaging 6 receptions for 62.7 yards per game in the playoffs

- Chiefs give up more receiving yards to TE's than any other team in the NFL.

Goedert MVP (+12000)

- Worth a stab with Chiefs allowing more receiving yards to TE's than any other team in the NFL. Goedert has been huge for Eagles in playoffs and if he gets 100-plus yards and a score or two he could steal the MVP award.

Late adds Sunday:

Favorite 3 adds:

Worthy O 5.5 Rushing (-122)

Eagles O 3.5 Players w/ a rush attempt (+152)

Smith O 50.5 Receiving

Much smaller bets:

Smith Anytime TD +250

Smith MVP +6500

Perine Anytime TD +1300

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +9

This is a very tough spot for the Houston Rockets today.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  It will also be their 9th game in 15 days, which is about a tough a situation as there is in the NBA.

It's no wonder the Rockets are going through their worst stretch of the season right now going 0-6 SU in their last six games overall.  They have also been without Fred VanVleet and Jabari Smith, which is a big reason for their struggles.  Now both Tari Eason and Steven Adams have been ruled out for this game.  Green played 41 minutes, Sengun 38, Brooks 37 and Thompson 37 yesterday.  I question now much those four have left in the tank as they'll have to carry the load again today.

This is more of a play against the Rockets than it is a play on the Raptors.  But I was impressed with Toronto hanging with Oklahoma City on the road last time out as 18.5-point dogs in a 12-point loss.  This is actually going to be a big step down in class for them after playing the Thunder, Grizzlies, Knicks and Clippers in their last four games.  They even upset the Clippers and took the Knicks to the wire during this brutal stretch.

Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last six meetings with Houston with one of the losses coming by just 4 points as 9-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  Asking the Rockets to win this game by double-digits to beat us given the extremely difficult rest spot they are in is asking too much.  Bet the Raptors Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Xavier/Villanova UNDER 141.5

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Wildcats rank 346th in adjusted tempo this season.  They will control the tempo playing at home today.  We've seen 108 and 122 combined points in Villanova's last two games against DePaul and Creighton.  We've seen 138 or fewer combined points in six of their last ten games overall.

We saw this matchup once already this season back on January 14th when Xavier beat Villanova 69-63 for just 132 combined points.  And this has been an UNDER series to say the least.  Indeed, Villanova and Xavier have combined for 132 points or fewer at the end of regulation in 9 of their last 10 meetings, making for a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 141.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Celtics/Knicks ABC No-Brainer on OVER 229.5

Two of the best offensive teams in the NBA square off Saturday when the New York Knicks host the Boston Celtics.  The Knicks are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in offensive rating this season, while the Celtics rank 4th in offensive rating and are shooting an alarming amount of 3-pointers.

One key injury here that will help us cash this OVER ticket is Jrue Holiday being out for Boston.  Holiday is one of the best defenders in the NBA, and not having him to defend Jalen Brunson is huge.  More Derrick White also benefits the OVER as he is much more known for offense than defense.

The Knicks will be without OG Anunoby, which is also a big loss for them defensively as he would match up with either Tatum or Brown.  Those two will likely have a field day not having to go up against him.

The OVER is 5-1 in Knicks last six games overall with 234 or more combined points in all six games.  They have scored 121 or more points in five of those six games.  The OVER is 5-2 in Celtics last seven games overall.  They have scored at least 112 points in all seven games and 118 or more in five of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Ole Miss -5.5

It looks like the LSU Tigers have quit.  They have gone 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their last two games have been very concerning losing 89-58 at home to Texas and 81-62 on the road to Georgia.

Ole Miss has gone 2-4 SU in its last six games overall against a brutal schedule of Miss State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas, Auburn and Kentucky.  All four losses came down to the wire as well.  The Rebels finally get a break in the schedule today, and I look for them to take advantage with a blowout road victory.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +6.5

The Golden State Warriors are expected to start Jimmy Butler tonight to make his debut.  I think that is getting too much hype, and the Warriors aren't going to be hitting on all cylinders in his first game with his new team.  In fact, I expect the Warriors to be lost offensively.

The bigger problem is the Warriors just traded away several key rotational players including Wiggins and Shroeder, so they are short-handed and out of sync as it is.  They also remain without Jonathan Kuminga and have been terrible without him.  The Warriors are 7-10 SU & 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

This is a tough spot for the short-handed Warriors as well playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  Meanwhile, the Bulls have had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight.  Chicago has been very impressive in its last two home games beating Miami 133-124 as 3.5-point dogs and Denver 129-121 as 9.5-point dogs.  They are beating undervalued again tonight.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +2.5

This is such a favorable spot for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.  Not only will they be max motivated to beat the No. 1 team in the Western Conference standings, but they will have a massive rest advantage over the Oklahoma City Thunder to boot.

Memphis has had the last two days off.  The Grizzlies are 35-16 SU & 34-17 ATS in all games this season despite battling through injury all season.  But now the Grizzlies are as healthy as they have been all season, and they are playing their best basketball of the season as a result going 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall with eight wins by 12 points or more.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 121-109 win over the Toronto Raptors as 18.5-point home favorites last night.  It was a pretty lackluster effort considering the Raptors were missing Barrett and Poeltl and were extra short-handed after recent trades.

The Thunder are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games with upset losses to the Warriors as 9-point favorites and the Mavericks as 3-point favorites.  The Grizzlies are 21-5 SU at home this season.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Grizzlies OVER 240.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Memphis Grizzlies host the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This has the makings of one of the highest-scoring games of the season tonight.

The Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 12-2-1 OVER in their last 15 games overall.  They rank 5th in pace and 1st in offensive rating during this stretch while scoring at least 115 points in 13 of those 15 games.

The Grizzlies have been a dead nuts OVER team all season.  They rank 1st in pace and 5th in offensive rating this season.  The OVER is 10-3 in Grizzlies last 13 games overall with 237 or more combined points in 11 of those 13 games.  They have scored at least 120 points in seven of their last eight games while allowing at least 119 points in five of those eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -1

The spot really favors the Orlando Magic tonight.  The Magic had yesterday off while the San Antonio Spurs lost 117-116 in Charlotte last night.  De'Aaron Fox had a game-winning 3-pointer overturned on replay as it came just after the buzzer.  That's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

So the Spurs are going to be tired as it is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, including their 4th consecutive road game.  I wouldn't be surprised if they decided to rest either Fox or Wembanyama tonight given the tough rest spot.

Either way, I like the Magic to get the win at home tonight.  The Magic are as healthy as they have been in a long time and starting to play better.  They are 15-9 SU at home this season while the Spurs are 8-14 SU on the road.  Orlando won its last two home meetings with San Antonio in blowout fashion by 16 and 20 points.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State/Northern Iowa OVER 139.5

Illinois State is 7-1 OVER in its last eight games overall with 159 or more combined points in four of its last five.  The Redbirds rank 73rd in adjusted offense but just 258th in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective FG percentage offense and 308th in effective FG percentage defense.

Northern Iowa is 95th in adjusted offense and 150th in adjusted defense.  The Panthers are 23rd in effective FG percentage offense and 233rd in effective FG percentage defense.

This total of 139.5 is very low for a game involving these two teams right now.  That's especially the case when you consider Northern Iowa beat Illinois State 85-84 for 169 combined points in their first meeting this season.  So we essentially have 29 points to spare here to cash this OVER in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Utah/West Virginia UNDER 137.5

West Virginia is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Mountaineers rank 330th in adjusted tempo, 104th in adjusted offense and 17th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 10-2 in WVU's last 12 games overall with 133 or fewer combined points in 11 of those 12 games, making for an 11-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 137.5-point total.

Utah has been a dead nuts UNDER team as well.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Utes' last nine games overall and 12-3 in their last 15 games overall.  Utah and its opponents have combined for 137 or fewer points in four of its last five games overall coming in.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pacers/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 231.5

Note: I put this play in before LeBron James was announced doubtful.  If you haven't bet it already, I would downgrade this to a 15* play.

The Lakers have had to go more small ball without Anthony Davis.  They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall and thriving offensively, scoring 120 or more points in four straight coming in.

The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 6th in pace, 9th in offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 5-2 in Pacers last seven games overall with 231 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

The Pacers and Lakers have combined for at least 231 points in five of their last eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on Colorado +15

The Houston Cougars are overvalued right now.  That's especially the case with Houston being down one of its best players in Emanuel Sharp (12.5 PPG, 43.6% 3-pointers).  The Cougars already lack depth as it is, so being down their 2nd-leading scorer is huge.

After falling 82-81 as 9.5-point home favorites to Texas Tech, the Cougars had a lackluster 72-63 home win over Oklahoma State as 21-point favorites.  Now they're being asked to go on the road and win by more than 15 points against Colorado Saturday without Sharp.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Colorado.  The Buffaloes are 0-11 SU & 1-10 ATS in Big 12 play.  But the Buffaloes have been much more competitive than that record would indicate, and there's no question they are treating this as their 'National Championship' game with Top 5 Houston coming to town.

Just two of the 11 conference losses have come by more than 15 points, and those were losses by 16 and 20 points.  The Buffaloes have been very competitive at home with losses by 2, 6, 8 and 10 points.  They will stay within this inflated number today.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Rhode Island/George Mason UNDER 137.5

George Mason is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Patriots rank 312th in adjusted tempo, 208th in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense.  Amazingly, George Mason and its opponents have combined for 138 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 12 of their last 13 games, and 126 or fewer in 10 of those.

George Mason lost to Rhode Island 62-59 for just 121 combined points in their first meeting this season on January 4th.  I fully expect another ugly, defensive battle in the rematch with the Patriots controlling the tempo playing at home.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Kansas/K-State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State +4.5

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  They have gone 4-3 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Even the first three losses were impressive falling by 4 to Texas Tech as 7-point home dogs, by 10 at Kansas as 14.5-point road dogs and by 8 at Baylor as 11-point road dogs.

The wins were even better beating West Virginia by 13 as 2.5-point home favorites, Oklahoma State by 28 as 7-point home favorites, Iowa State by 19 as 14.5-point road dogs and Arizona State by 1 as 3-point road dogs.  They ended Iowa State's 29-game home winning streak with that emphatic win, and avoided the letdown in their next game against Arizona State, which was extremely impressive considering they had Kansas on deck so it was the ultimate sandwich spot.

Now the Wildcats have their sights set on revenge from that 10-point road loss at Kansas in their first meeting this season.  Kansas is 2-4 SU in its six true road games this season losing by 13 at Creighton, by 9 at Missouri, by 17 at Iowa State and by 11 at Baylor.  The two wins came against two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in UCF and TCU.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on UCF/Baylor OVER 157.5

UCF is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Knights rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 21st in average length of offensive possession.  They are also 46th in adjusted offense and just 105th in adjusted defense.  They have great guards who will keep coming.

The OVER is 14-6 in UCF's last 20 games overall.  Their last game was very concerning in a 93-83 home loss to Cincinnati and 176 combined points.  They allowed the Bearcats to shoot 58.5% from the field.  That's a poor Cincinnati offense that had been held to fewer than 70 points in nine of its previous 10 games.

The Knights really let go of the rope defensively when they hit the road.  They lost 91-87 to Kansas for 178 combined points, 108-83 to Iowa State for 191 combined points and 88-80 to Arizona for 168 combined points.  They also beat Arizona State 95-89 for 184 combined points and Texas Tech 87-83 for 170 combined points.  So they are 5-0 OVER in Big 12 road games this season with 168 or more combined points in all five.

Baylor is expected to get back a pair of guards in VJ Edgecombe (14.9 PPG) and Langston Love (6.5 PPG) today.  Those two are huge for their offensive production, especially Edgecombe.  Baylor is 13th in adjusted offense but just 60th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Total DOMINATOR on Michigan/Indiana OVER 152

Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 44th in adjusted tempo, 16th in average length of offensive possession, 20th in adjusted offense and 5th in effective FG percentage.  The Wolverines play fast and they do so efficiently.

The OVER is 11-3 in Michigan's last 14 games overall with 155 or more combined points in 11 of those 14 games.  Now they face an Indiana team that is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall with 153 or more combined points in four of those six games.

The Hoosiers also rank in the top 1/3 of the country at 106th in adjusted tempo and 84th in average length of offensive possession.  So there will be a ton of possessions in this game, and the Hoosiers are as healthy as they have been all season and a more potent offensive team when that's the case.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt -2

I love the spot for Vanderbilt today.  The Commodores are pissed off following two consecutive road losses to Oklahoma and Florida.  But now they return home where they are 11-1 SU at home this season with wins over the likes of Tennessee and Kentucky int heir last two home games.

This is actually a step down in class for the Commodores against a Texas team that I'm just not that big of a fan of.  The Longhorns are just 2-3 SU on the road in SEC play with their last win coming recently against a LSU team that looks like they have quit.  They lost by 20 at Texas A&M, by 24 at Florida and by 3 at Ole Miss.  The Commodores should be favored by more.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Wisconsin -4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming by a single point 76-75 at home against Penn State as 3.5-point favorites.  That's a Penn State team that is 1-8 SU in its last nine games.

Making matters worse for the Hawkeyes is they just lost F Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).  They were already lacking an inside presence defensively, and now they are going to be even worse off without Freeman.  Purdue hung 90 points on Iowa in their first game without Freeman last time out.

This is one of the best Wisconsin teams of the Greg Gard era.  The biggest reason is its his best offensive team as the Badgers rank 8th in adjusted offense.  The Badgers are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

We saw this matchup already this season with Wisconsin winning 116-85 at home against Iowa on January 3rd.  Freeman had 14 points for the Hawkeyes in that defeat.  The Hawkeyes are charmin soft as far and away the worst defensive team in the conference.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on TCU/Iowa State UNDER 138.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the Big 12 square off Monday and this total has been set too high.  Iowa State ranks 7th in the country in adjusted defense while allowing just 67.6 points per game and 41.5% shooting.

The UNDER would be 6-1 in Iowa State's last seven games overall if not for OT against Arizona.  The Cyclones and their opponents have combined for 142 or fewer points at the end of regulation in six of their last seven games.  Iowa State being without its best shooter in Moncilovic (10.3 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) has hurt offensively.  The Cyclones were held to 61 points by Kansas State and 52 points by Kansas in their last two games coming in.

TCU is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 games overall.  The Horned Frogs rank 35th in adjusted defense while allowing just 67.1 points per game and 43.5% shooting.  But the problem for the Horned Frogs is offense, where they rank 182nd in the country including 298th in effective FG percentage.

TCU and its opponents have combined for 138 or fewer points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  That includes 125, 125 and 128 points in their last three games.  Being without G Frankie Collins (11.2 PPG, 4.4 APG) has really hurt them as he has been lost for the season.  

Iowa State and TCU have combined for 136 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +14

San Jose State is the single-most underrated team in the country.  The Spartans are 17-1-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have just one loss by more than 14 points all season, so this 14-point spread shows tremendous value.

Boise State is in a bit of a letdown spot here after winning three straight including a 71-62 road win at UNLV last time out.  The Broncos won't be all that motivated to beat the Spartans again after topping them 73-71 as 8.5-point road favorites on December 28th in their first meeting this season.

Meanwhile, the Spartans want revenge from that 2-point defeat to the Broncos, and they have the confidence knowing they can play with them.  They continue to be grossly undervalued tonight catching 14 points.  Bet San Jose State Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Thunder OVER 228.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 11-2-1 OVER in their last 14 games overall.  They rank 4th in pace and 4th in offensive rating during this stretch while scoring at least 115 points in 11 of those 13 games.

The Toronto Raptors rank 10th in pace and 27th in defensive rating this season.  They profile as an OVER team.  They are without their starting big man in Jakob Poeltl right now, so they have to go more small ball without him which favors the OVER.  Kelly Olynyk will get more playing time for them and he's an OVER play with terrible defense but solid offense with his ability to stretch the floor.

I know the Raptors are missing RJ Barrett, but Immanuel Quickley (15.0 PPG, 5.7 APG) is expected to play tonight and he makes them more of an OVER team with his ability to get the offense going 'quickly'.  The Raptors have some of the worst defenders in the NBA outside of Scottie Barnes.

The Raptors are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall including 245 combined points with Memphis and 236 with New York in their last two games coming in, and it's worth noting they didn't have Barrett for either game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* St. John's/UConn FOX No-Brainer on UNDER 142.5

Two elite defensive teams square off in this huge Big East showdown tonight.  St. John's ranks 4th in adjusted defense and makes every team work on every possession ranking 327th in average length of defensive possession at 18.3 seconds.  They pick up full court and that really gets opponents out of rhythm offensively.

UConn is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is ranking 337th in adjusted tempo and 326th in average length of offensive possession.  Dan Hurley runs plays almost every time down the court, and that takes a lot of time.  The Huskies also rank 279th in average length of defensive possession, so they make opponents work too.

Injury to three guards for UConn will also help us cash this UNDER ticket.  Ahmad Nowell (2.1 PPG) is out, while Aidan Mahaney (5.3 PPG) and Hassan Diara (8.6 PPG) are questionable to play tonight.  And the Huskies just aren't getting that elite guard play that they had the last two seasons in winning the title, which is one of the biggest reasons they aren't as good this season.

St. John's is 5-1 UNDER in its last six games overall with 150 or fewer combined points in seven consecutive games.  UConn and its opponents have combined for 148 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven consecutive games, and 136 or fewer in five of those seven.  These teams combined for 141 and 134 points in their two regular season meetings last season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Pacers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3

The Los Angeles Clippers should be max motivated for a victory tonight.  They were embarrassed in their last two games getting upset at Toronto and getting crushed by 25 by the Lakers as 8.5-point home favorites.  Look for them to take out their frustration on the Indiana Pacers tonight.

The Clippers haven't lost more than three games in a row all season so they have been a pretty resilient team in these spots.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games following two consecutive losses.

This is a tough spot for the Pacers playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They were lucky to escape with a 112-111 win as 6.5-point favorites at Utah on Monday before falling 112-89 at Portland as 5.5-point favorites on Tuesday.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Clippers OVER 228.5

This is a very low total for a game involving the Indiana Pacers right now.  They are 4-2 OVER in their last six games overall with 234 or more combined points in four of those six games, including 250 or more three times.

The Clippers are also playing in higher-scoring games here of late now that they are healthy.  They have gone 4-2 OVER in their last six games overall. These teams only meet twice a season so they are very unfamiliar with one another, and that unfamiliarity favors offense over defense.  

That has played out in this series as the OVER 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Pacers and Clippers with 238 or more combined points in six of their last seven meetings.  That includes 249, 278 and 261 combined points in their last three meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Portland Trail Blazers +2

The Portland Trail Blazers are the most underrated team in the NBA right now.  They have gone 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall with nine outright upsets as underdogs.  Many haven't even been close as they are coming off a 23-point win over Indiana as 5.5-point dogs.  They also beat Phoenix by 19, Orlando by 29, Milwaukee by 13, Orlando by 22, Miami by 9 and Chicago by 11 during this stretch.

This is a tough spot for the Sacramento Kings.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 130-111 home loss to the Magic last night.  They will also be playing in their 4th different city in 6 days.

The Kings just traded away their best player in De'Aaron Fox, and Zach LaVine is his replacement which is a big downgrade.  LaVine got his first minutes with his new team last night and the Kings were clearly out of sync.  He went just 4-of-13 from the field in his debut, but the Kings were more lost defensively than anything, and LaVine is not a good defender.  

The home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  Portland won 115-106 as 7.5-point dogs and 130-113 as 8.5-point dogs in its last two home meetings with Sacramento.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* Warriors/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -6.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are playing their best basketball of the season right now and most of it has been without Anthony Davis anyway.  The Lakers are 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Their last three games without Davis resulted in a 134-96 win at Washington as 8.5-point favorites, a 128-112 win at New York as 11-point dogs and a 122-97 win at Los Angeles as 8.5-point dogs.  They have embraced small ball and their offense is thriving as a result, while also getting some great perimeter defense from the underrated duo of Finney-Smith and Vanderbilt.

The Lakers are excited right now with the Luka Doncic and Mark Williams news.  They have new life and they are playing like it.  They are also fresh and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The same cannot be said for the Warriors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 131-128 loss in altitude in Salt Lake City as 6.5-point favorites to the Jazz last night.  The Warriors will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  

They are short-handed right now after trading away Wiggins and Schroeder for Jimmy Butler.  They gave important minutes to Post, Spencer and Rowe last night out of necessity.  Those same terrible players will have to get more big minutes tonight.  Bet the Lakers Thursday.

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco +5.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the St. Mary's Gaels tonight.  The Gaels are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  You're now paying a tax to back them due to this winning streak.

The Gaels are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 62-58 home win over their biggest rivals in the Gonzaga Bulldogs last game.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat San Francisco, which they already beat by 20 at home in their first meeting this season.

But the Dons have been a different animal at home this season.  They are a perfect 14-0 SU at home with their last four home wins all coming by 9 points or more, including a 24-point win over Washington State and an 11-point win over Oregon State.

The Dons have a lot of room for improvement in the shooting department from that first meeting at St. Mary's, which was a 71-51 loss on January 23rd.  The Dons shot just 26.9% from the field while the Gaels shot 61.5%.  It's amazing the Gaels didn't win by more.  There won't be nearly that big of a discrepancy this time around, and I'm expecting the Dons to shoot much better than the 6-of-27 (22.2%) from 3 they shot in that 1st meeting.  Bet San Francisco Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on North Dakota/Omaha OVER 159

North Dakota is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Fighting Hawks are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 162 or more combined points in nine of those 12 games, and 155 or more in 11 of those 12 games.

The Omaha Mavericks are also a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 160 or more combined points in seven of their last 10 games overall.

These teams met on January 2nd with Omaha winning 95-85 for 180 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch, and we have 21 points to spare based off that 1st meeting to cash this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Mavs/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on OVER 229

The Dallas Mavericks are really having to go small ball now without C Lively, C Powell, PF Washington and PF Davis.  They are going to be fine offensively going small ball, but defense will be a big problem tonight against the Celtics.

The OVER is 7-1 in Mavericks last eight games overall with 229 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  They are likely to give up a big number to the Celtics, who rank 4th in offensive rating this season.  They have allowed 115-plus points in seven of their last eight games.

These teams just met on January 25th with the Celtics winning 122-107 for 229 combined points.  It should be an even higher-scoring affair in the rematch, especially with the Mavericks lacking big men and going small ball.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +10.5

I love this spot in the NBA.  The Pelicans and Nuggets will be meeting for a 2nd time in 3 days in Denver.  The Nuggets won by 12 at home over the Pelicans on Monday. I like backing the team that lost the 1st meeting especially if they did not cover.

Now the Pelicans will clearly be the more motivated team for revenge, while the Nuggets will have a hard time being motivated to beat them again and will likely relax in the rematch.

The Nuggets will be without Russell Westbrook and Peyton Watson, and Aaron Gordon is questionable.  They can't afford to be without all these guys because they lack depth as it is.

The Nuggets are short-handed and tired right now.  They will be playing their 13th game in 23 days.  They haven't had two days off in a row since the beginning of January.  They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and showing that fatigue.  Asking Denver to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Nuggets UNDER 240

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Pelicans and Nuggets.  They combined for 238 points on Monday and both teams shot great from the floor.

The Pelicans shot 47% from 3-point range connecting on 18-of-38 attempts while the Nuggets shot 50% from the field.  I cannot see either team shooting any better in the rematch.

The Nuggets are without Russell Westbrook and he's an OVER player.  The Pelicans are without Dejounte Murray and he's an OVER player.  Both are great offensively but terrible defensively.

The Nuggets and Pelicans have combined for 238 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last five meetings.  Make it six in a row tonight as this one stays UNDER the 240-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont/Bradley OVER 156.5

Belmont is a dead nuts OVER team going 16-5 OVER in its last 21 games overall.  The Bruins rank 63rd in adjusted offense, 41st in effective FG percentage and 45th in 3-point percentage.  But they are just 279th in adjusted defense and 324th in effective FG percentage defense.  They also play are the 33rd-fastest tempo in the country.

Bradley is 14-8 OVER in all games this season and profiles as more of an OVER team.  The Braves are 105th in adjusted offense, but 9th in effective FG percentage and 3rd in 3-point percentage.  So these are two of the best shooting teams in the country.

Belmont and its opponents have combined for at least 155 points in each of their last five games.  Bradley beat Belmont 89-77 for 166 combined points on January 1st.  Belmont only shot 38.2% and Bradley shot 47.5%, so both teams have room for improvement in the shooting department in the rematch.

Belmont is averaging 81.4 points per game on 46.6% shooting and Bradley averages 79.3 points per game on 48.5% shooting this season.  These teams also combined for 167 points last season and 166 this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +18

The Memphis Tigers have been the kings of playing to their level of competition under Penny Hardaway.  In fact, the Tigers are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of -15 or higher.  I always love fading them as big home favorites.

The Tigers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  Meanwhile, Tulsa is 3-4 SU but 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.  Their largest loss was by 10 points during this seven-game stretch.  They covered as big road underdogs in both road games.

Tulsa is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Memphis.  The Golden Hurricane haven't lost by more than 12 points in any of their last 12 meetings with the Tigers.  Bet Tulsa Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Illinois State/Illinois-Chicago OVER 148

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when Illinois State travels to face Illinois-Chicago.  Illinois State is averaging 76.8 points per game on 48.5% shooting this season while Illinois-Chicago is averaging 81.2 points per game on 47.6% shooting.

Illinois-Chicago is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 155 or more combined points in five of its last six games.  The Flames rank 93rd in adjusted offense, 77th in adjusted tempo and just 198th in adjusted defense.

Illinois State is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall with 159 or more combined points in three of its last four.  The Redbirds rank 78th in adjusted offense but just 249th in adjusted defense.  They rank 10th in effective FG percentage offense and 302nd in effective FG percentage defense.  

This total of 148 is very low for a game between these two teams right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -7

The Toronto Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  They had a valiant comeback against the Knicks that came up short in a 121-115 loss last night.  They put a lot of effort into that comeback and made it short-handed nonetheless.

RJ Barrett (21.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 5.7 APG) was a late scratch with a concussion yesterday and Jakob Poeltl (14.2 PPG, 10.1 RPG) was knocked out of the game with a hip injury.  I have to think both are out again tonight.  Chris Boucher (10.5 PPG) is questionable with an illness.

The books can't set these Memphis spreads high enough.  The Grizzlies are 34-16 SU & 33-17 ATS this season.  They are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games with seven wins by 12 points or more.  

They beat Toronto by 29 at home in their first meeting this season.  The Grizzlies are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Toronto.  It will be another blowout in the rematch tonight.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +6

This is a very tough spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They lost 112-105 at home to the Boston Celtics last night.  All five starters played big minutes including 36 from Mitchell and 34 from Garland.

If you asked the Cavaliers to a man, the team they'd like to beat the most is the Celtics.  So they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Pistons tonight.  They have to try and get back up off the mat and play this 2nd of a back-to-back, and I don't think it will go well for them.

The Cavs also will be lacking motivation due to just beating the Pistons 110-91 at home a little over a week ago on January 27th.  Meanwhile, the Pistons will be motivated to avenge that defeat.

The Pistons are 7-4 SU in their last 11 home games with only one loss by more than 4 points in those 11 games.  They have been extremely competitive at home here of late, and they have the potential to pull off this upset tonight given the tough spot for the Cavs.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* Spurs/Hawks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 241.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team as long as Trae Young is healthy and playing, which he is right now.  The Hawks rank 2nd in pace this season.  They are a terrible defensive team, and even worse now with Clint Capela out.

The Hawks have had to go even more small ball here of late.  The OVER is 3-0 in Hawks last three games overall combining for 252 points with Cleveland, 259 with Indiana and 262 with Detroit all in regulation.  The Hawks allowed 130 or more points in all three games.

The Spurs welcome De'Aaron Fox to make his debut Wednesday night.  I love betting OVERS in games involving Fox because he pushes the tempo and makes everything easier on his teammates offensively.

The OVER is 8-2 in Spurs last 10 games overall.  The Spurs rank 3rd in pace in their last 10 games and will play even faster with Fox moving forward.  They rank 28th in defensive rating in their last 10 games.  The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Hawks and Spurs.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse +18

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Duke Blue Devils.  They are coming off a win over their biggest rivals in the UNC Tar Heels at home on Saturday.  They have another huge game on deck at Clemson this weekend.  This is the sandwich spot, and I expect the Blue Devils to be flat at Syracuse as a result.

You're paying a tax on Duke right now due to their 15-game winning streak.  The Orange are playing their best basketball of the season and are undervalued.  Syracuse is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall and has been competitive in every game.

The Orange upset Notre Dame at home, only lost by 4 to Pitt as 8-point home dogs, and they upset Cal on the road.  They will treat this as their 'National Championship' game tonight with the opportunity to take down the 2nd-ranked team in the country.  Bet Syracuse Wednesday.

15* Arizona/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU ML -125

The BYU Cougars are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season.  Their lone loss came to Texas Tech by 5, and Texas Tech is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Arizona lost by 16 at Texas Tech.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Arizona.  The Wildcats are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games overall and have managed to play a very easy schedule during this stretch.  They got lucky to beat Iowa State at home hitting a 60-foot shot just to force OT.

Their other wins in their last four games have come against Oklahoma State, Colorado and Arizona State, which are three of the worst teams in the conference.  Their schedule gets much tougher moving forward, starting tonight with this road game at BYU.  Bet BYU on the Money Line Tuesday.