|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-11-22||Miami-FL v. Florida State -6.5||64-65||Loss||-106||10 h 49 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Florida State -6.5
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes. They have won nine straight coming in and with almost all those wins at home. But they did go on the road and beat Duke outright as a 15-point favorite on Saturday for their signature victory. Now this is an obvious letdown spot for the Hurricanes at Florida State tonight.
Florida State got back on track with a 79-70 home win over Louisville last time out. They are bitter rivals with Miami and would love to end their nine-game winning streak. I think they do so in blowout fashion as they simply own the Hurricanes.
Indeed, the Seminoles have won seven straight meetings with the Hurricanes and are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. They have won the last three meetings all by 17 points or more. The Seminoles are 5-0 SU in their last five home meetings with the Hurricanes with all five wins coming by 6 points or more.
Florida State is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 ACC home games. The Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Seven of Miami's last nine wins have come by single-digits with the only exceptions being home wins over Lipscomb and Stetson in which they failed to cover the spread. Their luck runs out tonight in this obvious letdown spot. Take Florida State Tuesday.
|01-11-22||Suns v. Raptors UNDER 224.5||99-95||Win||100||9 h 16 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Raptors UNDER 224.5
The Phoenix Suns just got back three of their best defenders in DeAndre Ayton, JaVale McGee and Jameson Crowder. They lose one of their best offensive weapons in Cameron Johnson, who is out with an ankle injury. He has scored in double figures in 18 straight games and shoots 43.8% from 3-point range, so it's a huge blow to them offensively.
The Raptors could be without their 4th and 5th leading scorers in Gary Trent Jr. (16.4 PPG) and Scottie Barnes (14.7 PPG), who are both questionable. I think this sets up as a defensive battle between two teams who are more than capable of playing great defense given the current players in their lineup.
Toronto ranks 23rd in pace and will control the tempo here playing at home. Phoenix ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 102.2 points per 100 possessions. Toronto has won six straight largely due to improvement on defense as they have allowed 11 or fewer points in all six victories.
Phoenix is 8-1 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Suns are 18-5 UNDER In their last 23 games following a double-digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more. The UNDER is 8-1-2 in Suns last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Suns last 16 games following a loss. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|01-11-22||Pittsburgh +10.5 v. Syracuse||Top||61-77||Loss||-110||9 h 50 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +10.5
Pittsburgh has been grossly undervalued for weeks after a slow start to the season. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their two non-covers coming by a combined 4 points. Their seven covers have come by a combined 51 points.
Amazingly, Pitt has played in nine straight games decided by single-digits, including eight of those by 4 points or less. That includes games against Minnesota, Virginia, St. John's, Notre Dame, Louisville and Boston College. So they have been competitive against some great competition and should not be catching double-digits against Syracuse tonight.
Syracuse is 0-3 SU in its last three games overall and has lost five of its last seven with its only wins coming at home against Brown and Cornell. Every time they have faced a decent team recently they have lost. They should not be laying double-digits as they sit at just 7-8 on the season and this is one of the worst Syracuse teams in recent memory.
Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog over the last two seasons. Syracuse is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Orange are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. Bet Pittsburgh Tuesday.
|01-11-22||Rutgers v. Penn State -2||49-66||Win||100||8 h 19 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -2
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Rutgers after going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall. All five wins came at home. Rutgers is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season and losing by 13.5 points per game on average. That includes outright losses to DePaul and UMass as favorites.
Penn State has covered three straight with upset wins over Indiana at home and Northwestern on the road. Their only loss came by 7 as 9.5-point home dogs to Purdue, which is one of the best teams in the country. The home team has won three straight meetings in this series. Roll with Penn State Tuesday.
|01-10-22||Nets v. Blazers +10||108-114||Win||100||11 h 21 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +10
Both the Blazers and Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight. But this is clearly a worse spot for the Nets than it is for the Blazers, who will still be playing just their 5th game in 10 days and their 8th game in 20 days.
The Nets will be playing their 6th game in 10 days. They needed overtime to beat the Spurs 121-119 at home on Sunday. Now they have the long flight out to the West Coast overnight while the Blazers get to stay at home after beating the Kings 103-88 at home last night.
That was a taxing game for the Nets last night as Kevin Durant and James Harden both played over 43 minutes. They aren't going to have much left in the tank for the Blazers. Plus, the Nets have been grossly overvalued of late in going 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming by single-digits over the Pacers and Spurs. They should not be double-digit favorites at Portland tonight. The Nets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as favorites. Roll with the Blazers Monday.
|01-10-22||76ers v. Rockets OVER 225.5||Top||111-91||Loss||-110||10 h 33 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Rockets OVER 225.5
The Houston Rockets have been just fine on offense and terrible on defense. They have scored 102 or more points in 22 of their last 24 games overall with the OVER going 19-5 in those 24 games. But they have allowed 104 or more points in 21 straight games, including 111 or more in 11 straight contests.
The Rockets and their opponents have combined for 222 or more points in 12 straight games and 230 or more in six of their last seven. That includes a 113-133 road loss at Philadelphia for 246 combined points. So I don't think the 76ers and Rockets will have too much trouble topping 225.5 combined points in the rematch here tonight.
The 76ers are humming on offense right now with a recent return to health being a big reason why. They have scored 110 or more points in six straight games. Look for them to top 120 tonight and for the Rockets to do their part on offense in getting this OVER as well.
Houston is 7-0 OVER when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back this season. The OVER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 7-0-2 in 76ers last nine games as road favorites. The OVER is 7-0 in Rockets last seven home games. These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system in his analysis. Take the OVER in this game Monday.
|01-10-22||Georgia -135 v. Alabama||Top||33-18||Win||100||127 h 9 m||Show|
20* Alabama/Georgia Championship Game No-Brainer on Georgia ML -135
Let's start out by looking at this from a line value perspective. Georgia was nearly a touchdown favorite over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Now Georgia comes back as a 2.5 to 3-point favorite against Alabama in the rematch. So strictly from a line value perspective, the price is right to pull the trigger on Georgia.
We are getting Georgia cheap on the Money Line because there is a lot of money on the Alabama Money Line, so I have chosen that route instead of laying the -2.5 or -3. I fully expect them to win this game and have their revenge from the SEC Championship Game loss. The fact of the matter is Georgia has been the better team all season, and they are ready to get their Alabama monkey off their back.
I took Alabama +6.5 in the SEC Championship Game for a couple different reasons. But the main reason was that Alabama needed it like blood to get in the four-team playoff, while Georgia could lose and still get in. Simply put, Alabama wanted that game more and it showed on the field as they won outright.
It's a role reversal here. Now we are getting a max motivated Georgia team out for revenge and hungry for a National Championship. And when Georgia has been max motivated, they have rolled all season. Indeed, the Bulldogs have gone 13-0 SU & 9-4 ATS in their other 13 games this season. They are outscoring opponents by nearly 30 points per game on the season.
I was way more impressed with Georgia's 34-11 win over Michigan than I was with Alabama's 27-6 win over Cincinnati. That was a very good Michigan team, and the Bulldogs made them look like they didn't even belong on the field. Alabama was in a dog fight with Cincinnati midway through the 3rd quarter, while the Georgia game was decided by halftime as they took a 27-3 lead and coasted from there.
Alabama passed all over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game but it's not going to happen again. Kirby Smart will make the proper adjustments, and he won't have to deal with one of Alabama's best receivers in John Metchie this time around after he suffered a season-ending ACL tear. Metchie had six receptions for 97 yards and a score against Georgia in the first meeting. Now the Bulldogs can focus their attention on stopping Jameson Williams, who had 68 receptions for 1,445 yards and 15 touchdowns this season.
Metchie had 96 receptions for 1,142 yards and eight scores on the year and is a huge loss as he was Bryce Young's security blanket. Also, RG Emil Cyiyor Jr. and RT Chris Owens exited the win over Cincinnati with injuries and are questionable to play. They were already without C Darian Dalcourt and he's questionable to return as well. That's not good news for the Crimson Tide being up against the best defensive line in the country in the Bulldogs. Bet Georgia on the Money Line Monday.
|01-09-22||Grizzlies v. Lakers -3||Top||127-119||Loss||-110||10 h 24 m||Show|
20* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3
This is a great spot to 'sell high' on the Memphis Grizzlies. They have won eight straight coming in. Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Clippers last night. It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Grizzlies, who have injury concerns with JA Morant, Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks and Kyle Anderson all questionable.
The Lakers are as healthy as they have been in a long time and playing up to their potential because of it. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Memphis on December 29th on the 2nd of a back-to-back. They only lost by 5 points, and now they are the team in the favorable situation and out for revenge. This is a great spot for the Lakers as they are the fresher, more motivated team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.
Plays against road underdogs of 3 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - after covering four or five of their last six ATS, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 73-36 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Lakers Sunday.
|01-09-22||Wolves v. Rockets OVER 232||141-123||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Rockets OVER 232
Both the Timberwolves and Rockets are dead nuts OVER teams right now. The Timberwolves just got their Big 3 back healthy in Russell, Towns and Edwards and hung 135 points on the Thunder last time out. Russell is the key as their offense is way more efficient with him and they play at a faster tempo.
The Rockets have been just fine on offense and terrible on defense. They have scored 102 or more points in 21 of their last 23 games overall with the OVER going 18-5 in those 23 games. But they have allowed 104 or more points in 20 straight games, including 111 or more in 10 straight contests.
The OVER is 7-1 in Timberwolves last eight road games. The OVER is 11-5 in Timberwolves last 16 games overall. The OVER Is 6-0 in Rockets last six home games. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-09-22||Saints -4 v. Falcons||Top||30-20||Win||100||149 h 14 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints -4
The New Orleans Saints are in must-win mode in Week 18 and actually have an excellent chance to make the playoffs. They just have to beat the Falcons and have the 49ers lose on the road to the Rams to get in. The 49ers are a decent-sized underdog to the Rams. But first things first, and that's handling their business against the Falcons.
This is a terrible spot for the Falcons. They were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 29-15 loss at Buffalo last week. There will be a hangover effect here, especially after blowing a 15-14 halftime lead and getting shutout after intermission. Of course they would like to keep the Saints out of the playoffs, but I can't see them being all that motivated to do so.
And the fact of the matter is the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the NFL and not good enough to do anything about it. They are getting outscored by 8.5 points per game on the season. The Falcons have been at their worst at home, going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS with their only win coming against Tim Boyle and the Lions two weeks ago. They were outgained by the Lions by 84 yards and should have lost that game.
The Saints are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They have won every game that Taysom Hill has started here down the stretch with their only loss coming to the Dolphins when they were down to their 4th-string QB and missing a ton of players. In fact, the Saints are 8-3 when Jameis Winston or Hill starts this season, and 0-5 in all other games.
The Saints should be able to run on Atlanta with Hill, Kamara and company. The Falcons have now allowed 130 or more rushing yards in three straight games and an average of 175 rushing yards per game in their last three.
New Orleans has one of the best defenses in the NFL and should shut down this suspect Falcons offense. The Saints rank 4th in scoring defense while the Falcons are 27th in scoring offense. The Saints have held their last four opponents to an average of 9.8 points per game.
New Orleans is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. The Saints are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 road games overall. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Atlanta. Bet the Saints Sunday.
|01-09-22||49ers +5.5 v. Rams||Top||27-24||Win||100||149 h 13 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Rams NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco +5.5
The San Francisco 49ers are in must-win mode this weekend. They need to win to get into the playoffs or have the Saints lose to the Falcons. The Saints are 4-point favorites over the Falcons, so the 49ers don't want to rely on that. They want to handle their business here Sunday and win this game outright against the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams have a lot less at stake. They just have seeding in the NFC on the line. I can't see them being max motivated here. Plus, the Rams have been fortunate to win their last two games against the Vikings and Ravens as Matthew Stafford has committed six turnovers. He isn't playing well, and he won't have much success against one of the best defenses in the NFL here.
Indeed, the 49ers not only have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they are 3rd in the NFL in yards per play differential (+0.8 YPP). That is the sign of an elite team and one that is way better than their 9-7 record would indicate. The 49ers are led by a defense that ranks 4th in the NFL at 312.8 yards per game allowed. They are outgaining their opponents by nearly 60 yards per game on the season, which is better than the Rams mark of 40 yards per game.
Simply put, Kyle Shanahan owns his disciple Sean McVay. The 49ers have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four outright wins as underdogs. That includes their 31-10 home win as 3.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season. Stafford went 26 of 41 for 243 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in that defeat.
The Rams are 0-6 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season. Los Angeles is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following two or more consecutive wins. The 49ers are 6-0 ATS in thier last six January games. The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 37-8 (82.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|01-09-22||Hawks -4 v. Clippers||93-106||Loss||-107||5 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks -4
This is a terrible spot for the short-handed Los Angeles Clippers. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks had yesterday off and will be playing only their 4th game in 9 days.
The Hawks will be motivated to end this six-game road trip a winner. They have gotten healthier as the trip has gone on and are actually as healthy as they have been in a long time as they just got Trae Young and John Collins back among other. Expect a big effort from them this afternoon.
The Clippers are just 3-9 SU & 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They are really struggling without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. They have lost their last three games in blowout fashion to the Timberwolves by 18, the Suns by 17 and the Grizzlies by 15. I don't expect them to be competitive today either given the spot, and they have even less rest considering this is an afternoon game.
The Clippers are 3-11 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Los Angeles is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games after four straight games where they were outrebounded by 5 or more boards. The Hawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Sunday games. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest. Take the Hawks Sunday.
|01-09-22||Cincinnati +7.5 v. Memphis||Top||80-87||Win||100||4 h 13 m||Show|
20* Cincinnati/Memphis ABC No-Brainer on Cincinnati +7.5
The Memphis Tigers have nine players either out or questionable on their injury report with all of them legitimate injuries instead of COVID. That includes Duren (11.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Bates (10.8 PPG), Nolley II (9.2 PPG) and Lomax (5.9 PPG) among others.
The Tigers have already been one of the most overvalued teams in the country this season. I faded them with success last time out with Tulsa as the Golden Hurricane only lost 64-67 as 13-point road underdogs. And I'm fading them again today with the Cincinnati Bearcats catching too many points at Memphis.
The Bearcats are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall. That includes a 77-60 win over SMU as 2.5-point home favorites last time out in one of their most complete games of the season. Unlike Memphis, they are as healthy as they have been all season entering AAC play here and ready to make some noise in the conference.
Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 6 points or less. In fact, Memphis has only beaten Cincinnati by more than 6 points once in the last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the Bearcats pertaining to this 7.5-point spread. Bet Cincinnati Sunday.
|01-09-22||Bears +3.5 v. Vikings||17-31||Loss||-103||93 h 56 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3.5
The Chicago Bears are quietly playing their best football of the season here down the stretch. They have won two in a row over the Seahawks as 7-point dogs and the Giants 29-3 as 7-point favorites with two different quarterbacks. It hasn't mattered who is under center for them because their defense has been elite.
The Bears have now outgained six of their last eight opponents all by 54 yards or more. The only exceptions were when they were outgained by 92 yards at Green Bay and by 14 yards at Seattle. The Bears have the 5th-ranked unit in total defense at 315.8 yards per game allowed.
Chicago wants revenge from a 9-17 home loss to the Vikings in which they deserved to win on December 20th. They had 370 total yards and held the Vikings to just 193 yards, outgaining them by 177 yards. But they failed time and time again in the red zone. They haven't forgotten, and I like their chances of winning this game outright let alone covering this spread Sunday as they get their revenge.
This is a terrible spot for the Vikings. They were just eliminated from playoff contention with their emphatic 37-10 loss at Green Bay last week. Their defense was shredded for 481 total yards and they were without Kirk Cousins due to COVID. I just can't see them being able to get back up off the mat in time to face the Bears. They won't care about this game nearly as much as they are leading on in the media. The Bears will show up just as they have every week here down the stretch.
Plays against home teams (Minnesota) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 60-22 (73.2%) ATS since 1983. The Vikings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Bears Sunday.
|01-08-22||Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 43||Top||51-26||Win||100||32 h 44 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 43
The Dallas Cowboys are playing to win this game to try and improve their seeding in the NFC and sharpen up following a home loss to the Cardinals last week. Their offense is mostly healthy and should put up plenty of points on this Philadelphia Eagles defense to get the OVER.
It's uncertain what the Eagles are going to do. The good news is that they have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL in Gardner Minshew if they decide to bench Jalen Hurts. He is a gun slinger and will be trying to win this game no matter what, so the Eagles should be able to do their part on offense as well.
This Dallas defense is going to be missing some key players including Micah Parsons and possibly Trevon Diggs. Those are not only their two best defensive players, but two of the best defensive players in the NFL this season. The Eagles have all kinds of COVID questions and it's going to hurt their defense more than their offense if players cannot go.
Dallas is scoring 31.0 points per game in its last six games overall. Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in 13 of its last 14 games overall. If the Eagles get to 20 in this game, this should get OVER the total, and I think they will. It will be 28 degrees in Philadelphia Saturday but only 3 MPH winds, so scoring conditions will be just fine.
Dallas beat Philadelphia 41-21 in their first meeting this season for 62 combined points. They also combined for 54 points in their final meeting last season. This total is just way too low Saturday knowing that the Cowboys are playing to try to win, while Philadelphia will be just fine on offense with Minshew if it comes down to it. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|01-08-22||Bucks v. Hornets OVER 234.5||106-114||Loss||-110||9 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Hornets OVER 234.5
Two OVER teams square off tonight when the Milwaukee Bucks visit the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets rank 1st in pace, 3rd in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency this season. The Bucks also play at a fast tempo and rank 6th in offensive efficiency.
The Hornets combined with the Pistons by 251 points and the Wizards for 245 points in their last two games coming in. They also faced the Bucks earlier this season and gave them a run for their money, only losing 125-127 for 252 combined points as 9-point road underdogs.
The Bucks and their opponents have combined for at least 221 points in seven straight games and 228 or more in six of those. I think these teams easily get over this 234.5-point total given the matchup. Three of the last four meetings have seen 240 or more combined points. Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.
|01-08-22||Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech +1||72-68||Loss||-106||17 h 49 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgia Tech +1
It's a great time to 'buy low' on Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 SU in their last seven games overall. But they have been much more competitive of late now that they have gotten several key players back from injury. They are 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games beating Georgia State by 10, losing at Louisville by 3 and losing at Duke by 12 as 18.5-point dogs.
I think this is a great spot to back the Yellow Jackets as they return home and are highly motivated for a victory. It's also a great time to 'sell high' on Notre Dame, which has won four straight coming in against mostly weak competition. The exception was the upset 78-73 home win over North Carolina on Wednesday, which makes the Fighting Irish primed for a letdown.
Notre Dame is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games this season with its only win coming at lowly Pittsburgh by a single point. They lost by double-digits at Illinois and at Boston College. The Yellow Jackets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game. The Fighting Irish are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. Notre Dame is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win. Take Georgia Tech Saturday.
|01-08-22||Tennessee v. LSU -1.5||Top||67-79||Win||100||17 h 49 m||Show|
20* Tennessee/LSU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on LSU -1.5
The LSU Tigers are 13-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to the Auburn Tigers, who are one of the best teams in the country. Not only are the Tigers winning, they are dominating as they are outscoring opponents by 21.2 points per game on the season.
The Tigers have been at their best at home where the are 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS while winning by a whopping 29.6 points per game. That includes a 65-60 home win over Kentucky last time out. If they can beat Kentucky, they can definitely take down Tennessee.
The Vols have some shaky performances lately with a loss to Texas Tech and a loss to Alabama as well as needing overtime to beat Ole Miss as 17-point home favorites last time out. I think I've seen a lot more holes in Tennessee's game than LSU, which is #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. The Vols struggle to score at times which really showed in the Texas Tech and Ole Miss games.
LSU is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Tennessee with all three wins coming outright as underdogs, including two by double-digits. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet LSU Saturday.
|01-08-22||Northern Iowa +6 v. Missouri State||Top||85-84||Win||100||17 h 48 m||Show|
20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Iowa +6
Northern Iowa is a sleeper to win the Missouri Valley Conference. The Panthers opened 4-7 this season against a brutal schedule and missing some key players early. But now they are full strength and playing up to their potential with this veteran team that returned all five starters.
Indeed, the Panthers have opened 2-1 in MVC play with their only loss coming 69-71 at Bradley back on December 1st. They have won both of their MVC games in blowout fashion in January by beating Evansville 83-61 and Valparaiso 92-65. Now they are ready to take down Missouri State.
The Bears have opened conference season 2-1 as well with a bad 74-79 loss at Illinois State as 6.5-point favorites. They have since beaten 61-56 and Bradley 71-69 with a 3-pointer at the buzzer. I think this is a letdown spot for them off that Bradley win at the buzzer.
The Panthers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 meetings with the Bears. The road team is 32-15-1 ATS in the last 48 meetings. Northern Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. Dana Ford is 1-9 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game as the coach of Missouri State. Take Northern Iowa Saturday.
|01-08-22||Bradley +14 v. Loyola-Chicago||71-78||Win||100||15 h 48 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Bradley +14
The Bradley Braves are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall. The three losses all came by 5 points or less at Toledo by 2, at Indiana State by 5 and at home against Missouri State by 2. This team is playing too well right now to be catching 14 points from Loyola-Chicago.
This is a bad spot for the Ramblers. They are coming off a 79-74 win over San Francisco on a neutral on Thursday. So they have had just one day to get ready for Bradley and there is travel involved. The tough spot will make it very difficult for them to get margin on the Braves today as they are a tired team right now.
Each of the last nine meetings in this series were decided by 13 points or fewer. That makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the Braves pertaining to this 14-point spread. Bet Bradley Saturday.
|01-08-22||Nebraska +7.5 v. Rutgers||65-93||Loss||-105||13 h 47 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +7.5
Nebraska has impressed me in its last two games taking Ohio State to overtime as 9.5-point underdogs and covering in a 12-point loss at Michigan State as 14.5-point dogs. The Huskers have opened 0-4 in Big Ten play against a brutal schedule, but now they have a great chance to get their first conference win of the season, and at the very least stay inside this inflated number.
This is a terrible spot for Rutgers. They are coming off a historic win over Michigan 75-67 at home last time out as 3.5-point underdogs. But that is a down Michigan team this year. And this is clearly a letdown spot for them now with lowly Nebraska coming to town.
Nebraska has been a thorn in Rutgers' side in recent meetings. They only lost 72-75 in their last trip to Rutgers as 13.5-point dogs. And they won outright 72-51 as 8.5-point home dogs in their most recent meeting. This Nebraska team is better than those versions, and this Rutgers team is down a few notches this year. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Nebraska Saturday.
|01-07-22||Hawks v. Lakers -3||118-134||Win||100||12 h 41 m||Show|
15* Hawks/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3
The Los Angeles Lakers have gotten healthy of late and are starting to play up to their potential. They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the red-hot Grizzlies on the second of a back-to-back by a final of 99-104. They have handled their business at home winning their last three home games by a combined 46 points.
Now they are a short home favorite hosting the Atlanta Hawks. The Lakers got some important rest as they come in having the last two days off last playing on Tuesday. Look for them to put their best foot forward on National TV tonight, and it should be good enough to win and cover this short number.
The Hawks are 5-10 SU & 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games overall. They are starting to get healthier, but there are still several question marks with this team in the injury department. Trae Young (28.4 PPG, 9.5 APG), John Collins (17.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG) and Bogdan Bogdonovic (11.7 PPG) are all questionable tonight. Obviously Young and Collins are the big ones because they are their top two scorers. I like the Lakers whether or not they play tonight, if they don't and Young misses a second straight game it would be an added bonus.
The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. Atlanta is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Hawks are 1-9 ATS as underdogs of 3 to 9.5 points this season. Roll with the Lakers Friday.
|01-07-22||Wolves v. Thunder +6||Top||135-105||Loss||-110||10 h 41 m||Show|
25* NBA Northwest Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder +6
The Oklahoma City Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall despite missing several key players along the way. But they are as healthy as they have been in a long time and get Luguentz Dort back from injury tonight.
I love the spot for the Thunder tonight. This is a home-and-home situation. They will be out for revenge from a 98-90 road loss at Minnesota on Wednesday. Now they get their shot at revenge at home this time around just two days later, and they are healthier than they were in that first meeting. I expect them to win this game outright, let alone cover the 6-point spread.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have gone 7-5 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. This is the perfect letdown spot for them as they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Thunder again after just beating them two days ago.
Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS after losing three of its last four games this season. The Thunder are 11-3 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. Oklahoma City is 9-0 ATS after allowing 100 points or less this season. The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. Oklahoma City is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Thunder Friday.
|01-07-22||Wizards +6.5 v. Bulls||Top||122-130||Loss||-110||10 h 41 m||Show|
20* Wizards/Bulls Eastern Conference No-Brainer on Washington +6.5
The Washington Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. They get some key players back tonight in Spencer Dinwiddie (13.1 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Aaron Holiday (6.4 PPG) and could be getting back Montrezl Harrell (14.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG), who has been upgraded to questionable.
I love the spot for the Wizards, who will be out for revenge after losing 119-120 as 2-point home underdogs to the Bulls on January 1st less than a week ago. They lost at the buzzer after Kyle Kuzma hit the go-ahead 3-pointer in the closing seconds, only to see DeMar DeRozan to win it. They want this game a lot more than the Bulls do, and motivation is everything in the NBA.
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Bulls. They have won eight straight coming in. They started to show signs of complacency last time out, only beating the depleted Magic 102-98 as 14-point home favorites. I think they will be complacent here as well having just beaten the Wizards last than a week ago.
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Chicago is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games playing on three or more days' rest. I think all this rest actually works against them because they had momentum with that eight-game winning streak. Take the Wizards Friday.
|01-06-22||USC v. California +5.5||Top||77-63||Loss||-110||12 h 58 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on California +5.5
The California Golden Bears are one of the most underrated teams in the country as Mark Fox is doing a heck of a job with this team. They have gone 9-5 SU & 11-3 ATS this season, including 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home. They just beat Arizona State by 24 at home last time out, and they are primed to hand USC its first loss of the season.
The Trojans are overvalued due to their 12-0 start this season. They have only played three true road games and two were wins by less than this margin with a 5-point win at Temple and a 2-point win at Washington State. They also beat lowly Florida Gulf Coast by 17. This will be their toughest road test of the season.
Making matters worse for the Trojans is that they have been off for three weeks with their last game on December 18th due to COVID. There will be a rust factor with them. There is no rust factor for the Golden Bears, who just played ASU on January 2nd and have won five straight coming in.
USC is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following nine or more consecutive wins. They have failed to cover three of their last four with shaky home wins over Eastern Kentucky, Long Beach State and UC-Irvine all by 12 points or less. California is 9-1 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Golden Bears are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games. Take California Thursday.
|01-06-22||Long Beach State +27 v. UCLA||78-96||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Long Beach State +27
I love the spot for Long Beach State tonight. They Beach already played at UCLA once this season back on November 15th and lost 79-100 as 26-point underdogs. Now they are 27-point dogs in the rematch.
UCLA probably thinks it can just show up and win tonight. And there will be a rust factor for the Bruins, who have been off since December 11th so nearly a full month. They cannot be trusted to cover this inflated 27-point spread given the spot and the fact that these teams already played once to a 21-point game.
Long Beach State knocked the dust off yesterday with a 90-64 win over Westcliff. That came after their last game was on December 12th and it was a great showing, only losing 62-73 at USC as 24-point dogs. That's a 12-0 USC team right now.
Long Beach State is 9-1 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons, including 7-0 ATS when revenging a road loss. The Beach are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs. The Beach are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four losses coming by 4, 7, 11 and 21 points. Roll with Long Beach State Thursday.
|01-06-22||Celtics v. Knicks +106||Top||105-108||Win||106||8 h 26 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on New York ML +106
This is a terrible spot for the Boston Celtics. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 97-99 loss to the San Antonio Spurs last night. Four of five starters played at least 32 minutes last night including over 37 from Tatum, over 35 from Brown and over 33 from Smart.
The Celtics really should be 1-5 SU in their last six games overall as they needed a 14-point comeback in the final five minutes to beat the Magic in overtime as 10-point home favorites. They just aren't playing well right now despite being healthy as the chemistry is just bad with this team.
The Knicks have recently gotten healthy and are starting to play up to their potential. They are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last four games overall. They will likely be without Kemba Walker tonight, but he is one of the most overrated players in the NBA, just ask the Celtics. They aren't missing much not having him on the floor.
New York is 31-13 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons, including 20-6 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 during this stretch. Boston is 6-23 ATS in its last 29 games vs. teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game. The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Knicks Thursday.
|01-05-22||Thunder +7.5 v. Wolves||Top||90-98||Loss||-105||10 h 46 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Minnesota Timberwolves after going 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They are coming off a double-header at the Staple Center where they had a close loss to the Lakers before beating the short-handed Clippers outright. Now they return home and this is a definite flat spot.
The Timberwolves go from being an underdog in 12 of their last 13 games overall to being a 7.5-point favorite against the Thunder. In fact, the Timberwolves haven't been more than a 3.5-point favorite in any of their last 31 games. We'll take advantage and fade them in this hefty favorite role when it's uncertain whether or not D'Angelo Russell or Karl-Anthony Towns will return to the lineup tonight.
What I do know is the Oklahoma City Thunder have been undervalued all season. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and now they get three key players back tonight in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Bazley and Tre Mann from COVID. They have won five of their last nine games outright as underdogs and they are a live dog again tonight, especially with their best player in Gilgeous-Alexander back.
The Thunder are 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings with the Timberwolves with their lone loss coming by 3 points. Oklahoma City is 8-0 ATS after allowing 100 points or less this season. The Thunder are 9-1 ATS after losing three of their last four games this season. Minnesota is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. a team that allows 108 or more points per game this season. Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days' rest. The Timberwolves are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games as home favorites. Bet the Thunder Wednesday.
|01-05-22||Raptors +7.5 v. Bucks||117-111||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors +7.5
The Toronto Raptors have gotten healthy recently and are playing as well as anyone in the NBA. They have gone 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. They beat the Clippers by 8, the Knicks by 15 and the Spurs by 25 in their last three games overall coming in.
Yes, the Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but that is being factored too much into this line tonight. Because they won 129-104 over the Spurs, they were able to rest their starters in the 4th quarter and nobody played more than 32 minutes. They'll have plenty left in the tank tonight, and they won't be lacking any motivation facing the defending champion Bucks.
Milwaukee has played and extremely soft schedule of late with its last four games coming against the Magic (twice), Pelicans and Pistons. They lost outright as 16-point favorites against the Pistons. Their previous two games against better teams in the Celtics (won by 4) and Mavericks (won by 7) were close. They'll be without both Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen tonight among a few others.
The Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Toronto is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four outright wins as underdogs. The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Milwaukee. Roll with the Raptors Wednesday.
|01-05-22||Rockets v. Wizards OVER 228.5||114-111||Loss||-109||9 h 37 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Wizards OVER 228.5
The OVER is 15-3 in Rockets last 18 games overall. They have allowed 104 or more points in all 18 games. But they are getting it done on the other end by scoring 102 or more points in 19 of their last 21 games overall. They are playing at a fast tempo and playing no defense, making them a perfect OVER team. The OVER is 4-0 in their last four games overall with combined scores of 230 or more points in all four.
The Washington Wizards are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall. They ahve score 109 or more points in six of their last seven games. But they have allowed 117 or more points in five of their last six. They are coming off two straight high-scoring games with 245 combined points against the Hornets and 239 combined points against the Bulls. It should be more of the same against the Rockets tonight.
The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The Rockets and Wizards have combined for 250 or more points in four of their last five meetings. Houston is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games after allowing 120 points or more in three straight games. The OVER is 11-1 in Rockets last 12 games following a loss. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Wizards last seven games following a win. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|01-05-22||Pittsburgh +12.5 v. Louisville||Top||72-75||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +12.5
The Pittsburgh Panthers have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. All seven games were decided by 9 points or fewer and that includes games against quality competitive in Virginia, St. John's and Notre Dame as all three of those games were decided by 1 or 2 points.
Louisville has no business being a 12.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh tonight. The Cardinals aren't blowing anyone out other than overmatched non-conference opponents, and even then they only beat Southern by 12 and lost outright to Furman as a 9-point favorite. Their three ACC wins have all come by 5 points or fewer.
Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games off a home loss. The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after committing eight or fewer turnovers last game. Louisville is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games following a road win. The Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. Bet Pittsburgh Wednesday.
|01-05-22||Davidson v. St. Joe's +4.5||88-73||Loss||-107||8 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on St. Joseph's +4.5
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Davidson Wildcats. They have gone 9-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last nine games overall. That includes an upset win over Alabama as 9.5-point dogs on a neutral in their last lined game. This is now a huge letdown spot for the Wildcats, and you're paying a premium to back them at this point.
St. Joseph's has quietly put together a nice run itself in going 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Hawks have an upset win over Georgetown as well as an extremely impressive 83-56 win at Richmond as 11.5-point underdogs last time out. They are more than capable of not only covering tonight, but upsetting Davidson.
St. Joseph's is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Davidson. The Hawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. excellent 3-point shooting teams that make 41% or better. St. Joseph's is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a game where it had two or fewer steals. The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. St. Joseph's is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take St. Joseph's Wednesday.
|01-04-22||LSU v. Kansas State -3.5||20-42||Win||100||116 h 57 m||Show|
15* LSU/Kansas State Texas Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -3.5
The Kansas State Wildcats clearly want to be playing in the Texas Bowl. They have everyone available for this game including QB Skylar Thompson, who has been out since November 20th in a loss to Baylor. Thompson means everything to their offense as he is a huge upgrade over backup Will Howard, who completed only 54.5% of his passes in Thompson's absence.
Indeed, Thompson is the leader of this team, and he is also a great player as well. Thompson is completing 68.8% of his passes with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also scoring four touchdowns on the ground. He'll be supported by one of the best defenses in the Big 12 that gives up just 21.1 points per game on the season.
LSU got the big 27-24 upset win over Texas A&M in their regular season finale to send Ed Orgeron out a winner. But now Brian Kelly will be taking his place, and this is a program in transition heading into their bowl game. Offensive line coach Brad Davis will serve as the interim coach, and he is having to deal with a ton of opt-outs and transfers.
LSU will be without QB Max Johnson among others. That's a huge blow as Johnson had a 27-to-6 TD/INT ratio this season. The only scholarship quarterback left on the roster is Garrett Nussmeier, a true freshman who appeared in four games and completed just 50.9% of his passes. LSU is still trying to get a redshirt for him. I just think this team is distracted as a whole right now and doesn't want to be here nearly as bad as the Wildcats, and motivation is everything in bowl games.
Kansas State is 39-16-2 ATS in its last 57 games following an ATS loss. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games as a favorite. Kansas State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after going under the total in two or more consecutive games. Bet Kansas State Tuesday.
|01-04-22||Tulsa +14 v. Memphis||64-67||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +14
Memphis is grossly overvalued this season and continues to be here as 14-point favorites over Tulsa. The Tigers are just 7-5 SU & 5-7 ATS this season while battling COVID issues currently. They are getting too much respect after their blowout win at Wichita State last time out.
The Tigers had gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their previous six games. They lost by 19 to Iowa State as an 11.5-point favorite, lost outright to Georgia as an 11.5-point favorite, lost outright to Ole Miss as a 1.5-point favorite, lost outright to Murray State as a 10-point favorite and lost outright to Tulane as a 6-point favorite. How can this team be trusted to lay 14 points given those results?
Tulsa is 6-6 this season but all six losses came by 14 points or less, including five by 7 points or fewer. And the Golden Hurricane simply have Memphis' number. Tulsa is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings winning outright as underdogs four times. Tulsa hasn't lost any of its last eight meetings with Memphis by more than 9 points, making for an 8-0 system backing the Golden Hurricane pertaining to this 14-point spread. Take Tulsa Tuesday.
|01-04-22||Georgia Tech +18.5 v. Duke||Top||57-69||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +18.5
Georgia Tech was hampered all season by illness and injury. But they are finally fully healthy for the first time and it's starting to show. After beating Georgia State 72-62 as 5-point favorites on a neutral, they gave Louisville a run for its money in a 64-67 loss as 3-point dogs.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Yellow Jackets as they are a much better team than their 6-6 record would suggest, they just haven't been healthy. Now they are healthy and ready to give Duke a run for its money tonight. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Blue Devils after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall against a soft schedule.
Few teams have played Duke as tough as Georgia Tech in recent seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Blue Devils. They haven't lost any of their last five meetings with the Blue Devils by more than 13 points. In fact, eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by 17 points or fewer.
The Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Josh Pastner is 9-2 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points as the coach of Georgia Tech. Take Georgia Tech Tuesday.
|01-04-22||Grizzlies v. Cavs -3||110-106||Loss||-100||9 h 48 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Cavaliers -3
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. That includes their win in Brooklyn last night as 6.5-point underdogs. That makes this a letdown spot for them after beating the Nets, and they will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well.
Cleveland has been grossly undervalued all season. The Cavaliers are 21-16 SU & 25-11-1 ATS in their 37 games this season. They had yesterday off and will be the fresher team. They get one of their best players back from COVID tonight in Darius Garland (19.5 PPG, 7.3 APG), which is huge because they are already without Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio. They are healthier than they have been in a few weeks right now.
Cleveland is 10-2 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. The Cavaliers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. Cleveland is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Cleveland is 21-8 ATS in the last 29 meetings. Roll with the Cavaliers Tuesday.
|01-04-22||Kentucky v. LSU -2||Top||60-65||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
20* Kentucky/LSU ESPN No-Brainer on LSU -2
The LSU Tigers opened 12-0 before finally suffering their first defeat on the road at Auburn in their SEC opener. Look for them to bounce back tonight at home where they have been dominant all season.
Indeed, the Tigers are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by a whopping 32.7 points per game. They face a Kentucky team that has only played one true road game this season, losing 62-66 at Notre Dame as 4.5-point favorites.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Kentucky) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points in their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet LSU Tuesday.
|01-04-22||Florida State v. Wake Forest -115||54-76||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest ML -115
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have gone 11-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road to LSU, Louisville and Miami. They are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS at home while outscoring opponents by 19.8 points per game.
Florida State is clearly down this season at 7-4. They have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall as they have consistently been overvalued. They lost by 28 at Purdue, were upset as 6.5-point home favorites by Syracuse and were upset as 6.5-point favorites against South Carolina on a neutral. They also only beat Boston by 1 as 17.5-point home favorites during this stretch.
Florida State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game. The Seminoles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games. They have played three true road games this season, losing by 16 at Florida, by 28 at Purdue and only beating a bad NC State team by 2 as 2.5-point favorites. Roll with Wake Forest Tuesday.
|01-03-22||Hawks -5.5 v. Blazers||131-136||Loss||-105||12 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks -5.5
The Atlanta Hawks recently got some players back from COVID and they are getting even more back tonight, including Kevin Huerter, Danilo Gallinari and Delon Wright. They already got Trae Young and Clint Capela back. They are getting closer to full strength and should make easy work of the struggling, short-handed Blazers tonight.
The Blazers are 3-14 SU & 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall. They have lost four straight games by 14 points or more. It won't go any better for them tonight as they will be without three starters in CJ McCollum, Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic. They could be without Anfernee Simons as well.
Portland is 2-12 ATS as an underdog this season. The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Portland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games. Atlanta is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games. Take the Hawks Monday.
|01-03-22||Heat v. Warriors OVER 216.5||Top||108-115||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
20* Heat/Warriors NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 216.5
The Golden State Warriors are back to close to full strength and it showed in their 123-116 win over the Utah Jazz on the road last time out. Look for them to hang a big number on the Miami Heat, who are missing their key defensive player in Bam Adebayo and have taken a step back on defense without him. They are also missing several other key defenders.
The Heat have had to try and outscore teams of late because they have allowed 110 or more points in four of their last five. They have done a good job of it by going 5-1 in their last six games while scoring 113 or more points in five of those six games.
Recent meetings between the Warriors and Heat have topped this 216.5-point total. In fact, each of the last seven meetings have seen 214 or more combined points with six of those seeing 218 or more combined points. They have averaged 226.1 combined points per game at the end of regulation in their last seven meetings.
The OVER is 35-15-1 in Heat last 51 games playing on zero rest. The OVER is 9-1 in Heat last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The OVER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|01-03-22||Browns v. Steelers +3.5||Top||14-26||Win||100||48 h 5 m||Show|
20* Browns/Steelers ESPN No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3.5
Ben Roethlisberger has hinted that this will be his final home game. He would love nothing more than to beat the Cleveland Browns one last time and continue his dominance of them. Big Ben is 25-2-1 all-time against the Browns straight up. And we are getting 3.5 points with him and the Steelers at home here where they can still lose by 3 and cover.
This line doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Cleveland was a 5.5-point closing favorite in the first meeting, losing 15-10 outright to the Steelers at home. Now they are a 3.5-point road favorite and after taking a ton of money already this week as Pittsburgh actually opened the favorite. This despite the Steelers being one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.
Admittedly, the Browns are getting healthier this week and are probably the better team on a neutral. But this line has shifted too much in their direction. Baker Mayfield cannot be trusted as he threw four interceptions against the Packers last week and has been terrible all season as he has battled through injury. I trust Big Ben more, and I trust that it will be a raucous atmosphere for his final home game and his players will have his back as they are fighting for their playoff lives right now.
There's actually a chance the Browns will be eliminated from division contention even before they play this game, which would take the wind out of their sails. They sit at 7-8 this season and in last place in the division. I think there's a good chance Cincinnati (8-7) or Baltimore (8-7) pull the upset this week in their respective games. And Pittsburgh is going to be alive for the division title no matter what happens on Sunday before this game is played.
The Browns haven't won any of their last six games by more than 3 points. Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a road loss. The Browns are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 division games. Pittsburgh is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 games as an underdog. The Steelers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs. Pittsburgh is 19-0 SU in its last 19 Monday Night Football home games with its last loss in 1991! Bet the Steelers Monday.
Note: The Browns did get eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday which is why this line has moved from Cleveland -3.5 to +2.5. I would still take the Steelers as a 15* play at -2.5. Glad we got in early at +3.5 and beat this line move!
|01-03-22||Rockets v. 76ers OVER 219.5||113-133||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/76ers OVER 219.5
The OVER is 14-3 in Rockets last 17 games overall. They have allowed 104 or more points in all 17 games. But they are getting it done on the other end by scoring 102 or more points in 18 of their last 20 games overall. They are playing at a fast tempo and playing no defense, making them a perfect OVER team.
The 76ers figure to hang a big number on them as they recently got all their playmakers back on offense and have now scored 110 or more points in three straight. They should top 120 tonight as the Rockets have allowed 118 or more points in seven straight coming in. The 76ers have allowed at least 101 points in nine of their last 12 and the Rockets should top 100 tonight.
The Rockets and 76ers have combined for at least 226 points in each of their last four meetings. They have averaged 234.3 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those four meetings.
The OVER is 10-1 in Rockets last 11 games following a loss. The OVER is 6-0 in 76ers last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the OVER in this game Monday.
|01-03-22||Towson -2.5 v. Drexel||61-65||Loss||-108||8 h 40 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Towson -2.5
Towson is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Tigers have gone 9-4 SU & 11-2 ATS in their 13 games this season. Even their four losses were impressive as they lost to Monmouth by 8, Pittsburgh by 4, San Francisco by 10 and Ohio State by 11 while covering the spread in three of those against four quality teams.
Drexel is 5-5 this season with losses to Syracuse by 15, Tulane, Jacksonville State, Princeton and Abilene Christian by 17. The five wins all came against suspect competition in Neumann, St. Joe's, Charlotte, Farleigh Dickinson and Coppin State. Drexel has been off since December 14th due to COVID and will be rusty playing their first game in three weeks.
Towson is +8.9 points per game based on what their opponents normally average on offense and allow on defense. Drexel is +1.4 points per game based on the same factor, meaning Towson is 7.5 points better than Drexel on a neutral. So we are getting the Tigers at a discount as only 2.5-point road favorites considering there won't be much of a home-court advantage for the Dragons tonight.
The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games. Towson is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall. The Tigers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites. Towson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after a win by 10 points or more. Drexel is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games vs. good defensive teams that allows 42% shooting or lower. Roll with Towson Monday.
|01-02-22||Mavs v. Thunder UNDER 209.5||95-86||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Thunder UNDER 209.5
Both teams are missing a ton of players that will have this game being played at a snail's pace and make points hard to come by. Look for a defensive battle between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks tonight because of it.
The Thunder will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Bazley, Tre Mann, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and could be without Luguentz Dort tonight. They just played in a defensive battle in a 95-80 win over the Knicks last time out for just 175 combined points.
The Mavericks will be without Kristaps Porzingis and Trey Burke and could be without Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber and Frank Ntilikina tonight. They just combined for 189 and 208 points in their last two games, both against the Kings who are a great offensive team and terrible defensive team.
The UNDER is 11-4 in Mavericks last 15 games overall. The UNDER is 5-2-1 in Thunder last eight games overall. The Thunder are 15-4 UNDER in their last 19 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|01-02-22||Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 212.5||Top||104-108||Win||100||8 h 39 m||Show|
20* Pacers/Cavs NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 212.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be without their top three guards in Collin Sexton, Ricky Rubio and Darius Garland tonight. The Indiana Pacers are going to be without their PG as well in Malcolm Brogdon as well as two other key guards in Jeremy Lamb and Chris Duarte.
Because of these absences due to COVID or injury, both offenses are going to be out of sync. Points are going to be hard to come by and this is going to be a defensive battle with the offenses run through their big men more than normal. It will be slowed down to a snail's pace.
The UNDER is 10-1 in Pacers last 11 games as underdogs. The UNDER is 11-2 in Pacers last 13 road games. The UNDER is 8-0 in Pacers last eight games as road underdogs. The UNDER is 12-5 in Cavaliers last 17 home games. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings. Cleveland is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams that make 33% or less. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|01-02-22||Lions +7 v. Seahawks||Top||29-51||Loss||-101||99 h 43 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +7
I faded the Seahawks with success last week as the Bears won outright as 7-point underdogs at Seattle. I'm fading the Seahawks again for a number of the same reasons this week. They are 5-10 this season and will finish with a losing record for the first time with Russell Wilson. Seattle won't be going to the playoffs, and they are simply playing out the string now with zero motivation. They can't be laying 7 points to the Detroit Lions given their lack of motivation.
The Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the NFL as it is. They rank 31st in total defense at 385.5 yards per game allowed. They are 29th in total offense at 305.2 yards per game. They are getting outgained by over 80 yards per game, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL this season.
The Lions continue to fight every week. They were without Jared Goff last week and covered in a 16-20 road loss to the Atlanta Falcons as 7-point dogs. They actually outgained the Falcons by 84 yards and should have won. There was a chance they would get Goff back this week, but even without him they'll be able to run the football as they have a healthy De'Andre Swift back at RB.
The Lions are much better than their 2-12-1 record and continue to show up every week for Dan Campbell. They have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They have only lost once by more than 4 points during this run.
The Lions have rushed for at least 100 yards in six of their last seven games. They have one of the best offensive lines and rushing attacks in the NFL. You can definitely run on the Seahawks as they give up 115 rushing yards per game. Detroit's defense is good enough to keep them in this game as well. They have allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Lions will show up this week, and I don't think the same can be said for the Seahawks. Bet the Lions Sunday.
|01-02-22||Richmond v. St. Louis -2.5||Top||69-76||Win||100||4 h 39 m||Show|
20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2.5
The Saint Louis Billikens are one of the best mid-majors in the country. They are 8-4 this season with their four losses coming to Memphis, UAB, Belmont and Auburn with the latter three losses all coming by 5 points or less. They also beat Boise State on the road and Boston College at home along with solid wins over Stephen F. Austin and Illinois State on a neutral.
Richmond is overvalued this season. The Spiders have lost almost all of their step up games against Utah State, Drake, Maryland and Mississippi State. Five of their last six wins have come by single-digits. They finally ran out of luck last time out, getting blasted 56-83 as 11.5-pint home favorites against St. Joseph's, failing to cover the spread by 38.5 points.
Saint Louis is +12 points per game based off what their opponents average on offense and give up on defense, while Richmond is +9 points per game based on the same criteria. That means Saint Louis is 3 points better on a neutral, so they aren't even factoring in the huge home-court advantage for the Billikens today.
Richmond is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after two straight games where opponent was called for 15 or fewer fouls. The Spiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after a game where they made 28% of their shots or worse. The Billikens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after having lost two of their last three games. Saint Louis is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 home games. Bet Saint Louis Sunday.
|01-02-22||Bucs v. Jets OVER 45.5||28-24||Win||100||17 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Jets OVER 45.5
The Tampa Bay Bucs should get Mike Evans back this week. They have been scoring at will regardless of who has been in the lineup. The Bucs have scored 30 or more points in five of their last six games overall. They should get to 30 here to help pave the way for us cashing this OVER.
The Jets have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They rank 32nd in scoring defense at 29.9 points per game and 32nd in total defense at 391.3 yards per game. They are 31st against the run at 141.3 yards per game and 28th against the pass at 250.0 yards per game. The Bucs are going to be able to name their number on the Jets.
New York has shown some life on offense in recent weeks in scoring 26 points against the Jaguars and 24 against the Dolphins. They should do their part to get this OVER against a Tampa Bay defense that will be missing several key players this week. They have three cornerbacks either questionable or doubtful. They will for sure be without two of their best pass rushers in Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul as well.
Bruce Arians is 8-1 OVER after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of Tampa Bay. Arians is 16-4 OVER in road games following two or more consecutive unders in all games as a head coach. Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following a double-digit road win. The OVER is 20-5-1 in Bucs last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The OVER is 9-3 in Jets last 12 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-02-22||Eagles -4.5 v. Washington Football Team||20-16||Loss||-106||17 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They have gone 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall to get to 8-7 on the season and knocking on the door of making the playoffs. They have a lot to play for right now and that motivation is a big reason I am backing them as short road favorites over Washington this week.
Philadelphia is very close to being on a 6-0 run. Its only loss came when it committed four turnovers against the Giants on the road in a 7-13 loss, losing the turnover battle 4-0. They avenged that loss last week in a 34-10 home win over the Giants. They also beat the Broncos by 17, the Saints by 11, the Jets by 15 and Washington by 10 during this run so all five wins have been by double-digits.
Philadelphia was a 10-point home favortie against Washington two weeks ago in that 27-17 win that was even more dominant than the final score showed. They racked up 519 total yards on Washington and outgained them by 282 yards. They should be more than 4.5-point favorites in the rematch, a 5.5-point adjustment down.
Washington has zero home-field advantage right now because they are 6-9 on the season and eliminated from playoff contention. They had the wind knocked out of their sails by the Eagles two weeks ago, and that showed last week as they came back and got blown out 56-14 by the Cowboys. They gave up 505 more yards to the Cowboys and were outgained by 240 yards. They were seen fighting on the sidelines. This team just wants the season to be over right now.
While the Eagles are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, the Football Team has a ton of injuries and COVID issues which is a big reason they have struggled so badly of late. They will be without RB Antonio Gibson among several others this week against the Eagles. I just don't see them showing up this week, and even if they do they aren't good enough to hang with Philadelphia.
Washington is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss by 10 points or more. The Football Team is 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss. The Eagles are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Plays on favorites (Philadelphia) - an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a bad defensive team (27 PPG or more), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Eagles Sunday.
|01-02-22||Chiefs v. Bengals OVER 50.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||17 h 54 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Bengals AFC No-Brainer on OVER 50.5
Expect a shootout between two of the best offenses in the NFL that boast two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. These are two of the healthiest offenses in the NFL right now, which is why they are both humming.
Both teams have all of their key playmakers on offense as Travis Kelce returns for the Chiefs this week. Kansas City has now scored 39.3 points per game in its last three games as it has entered playoff mode trying to get that all-important top seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. They won't be holding anything back on offense this week.
Burrow is coming off a franchise-record 525 passing yards against the Baltimore Ravens last week in leading the Bengals to a 41-21 victory. He is going to have to be on top of his game to try and match Mahomes and company score for score, and I think he'll be up to the test in a shootout.
The Chiefs have benefited from playing a lot of terrible offenses lately. The one exception was the Chargers, who had 28 points and 428 total yards against them even though they came with zero points three times inside the Kansas City 5-yard line. The Bengals have a ton of injuries on defense right now that are going to make them soft as butter and give them almost zero chance to slow down the Chiefs.
The OVER is 5-1 in Chiefs last six January games. The OVER is 4-1 in Chiefs last five vs. AFC opponents. The OVER is 7-0 in Bengals last seven January games. The OVER is 4-1 in Bengals last five home games. The OVER is 5-0 in Bengals last five games following a win. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|01-01-22||Warriors +5 v. Jazz||Top||123-116||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Jazz NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Utah Jazz off six straight victories. That includes their 120-108 home win over the short-handed Minnesota Timberwolves last night. They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 10 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Golden State Warriors tonight.
Meanwhile, the Warriors come in on three days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 7 days. They will give a big effort here, especially since they have recently gotten a lot healthier with Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins returning to the lineup. This is arguably the best team in the NBA when healthy and they should not be catching 5 points to the Jazz given the favorable spot for them and the terrible one for the home team.
Utah is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 home games following a division game. Golden State is 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season. The Warriors are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Golden State is 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall. Utah is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Jazz are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games. They are getting way too much respect from the books of late, including tonight. Roll with the Warriors Saturday.
|01-01-22||Baylor v. Ole Miss -120||21-7||Loss||-120||44 h 42 m||Show|
15* Baylor/Ole Miss Sugar Bowl BAILOUT on Ole Miss ML -120
You just have to love Ole Miss QB Matt Corral. He has decided to play in this game despite the likelihood that he could be the top QB drafted in the NFL this spring. He is a gamer, and he played through injury at the end of the season. Corral should be has healthy as he has been in a long time and ready to put on a showcase for NFL scouts against Baylor in the Sugar Bowl.
"It never crossed my mind to sit out the game," Corral said. "I'm healthy, I'm going to give these guys everything I got til it's over." I think having that continuity, plus Lane Kiffin returning next season gives the Rebels huge motivation heading into this game. DE Sam Williams, who set a school record with 12.5 sacks, will also play for Ole Miss, which has no opt-outs for the New Orleans classic.
Corral leads a Ole Miss offense that is 4th in the country at 506.6 yards per game and scores 35.9 points per game. Corral is completing 68.3% of his passes for 3,333 yards with a 20-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 597 yards and 11 scores. He will be the best player on the field by far. And he'll be supported by an underrated Ole Miss defense that gave up 25.0 points per game this season despite the offense playing at such a fast tempo.
Baylor's season is a success no matter what happens in this game. They pulled off the shocking 21-16 upset of Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship after getting goal-line stand in the final seconds. They won that game despite gaining just 242 yards on offense and getting outgained by 91 yards. They benefitted from four Oklahoma State turnovers. They had barely beaten a bad Texas Tech team 27-24 at home as 14-point favorites the week prior. Their luck runs out in the Sugar Bowl against this better Ole Miss team.
Ole Miss is 12-2 SU & 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 bowl games. Baylor is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games. Ole Miss is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games as a favorite. The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Ole Miss is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Take Ole Miss Saturday.
|01-01-22||Spurs v. Pistons UNDER 224.5||116-117||Loss||-110||8 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Pistons UNDER 224.5
This will be the 2nd meeting in a week between the Spurs and Pistons. Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I look for this game to go well UNDER this 224.5-point total because of the familiarity and a few other reasons.
I just don't know how the Pistons are going to score enough points to get this game over the total. They have 12 players out due to injury or COVID, including their two best scorers in Jerami Grant and Cade Cunningham. They only managed 85 points last time out against the Knicks while being short-handed.
The Spurs aren't going to be looking to push the tempo much because they are a tired team. They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 105-118 loss in Memphis last night. That came after a 104-110 loss in Salt Lake City the game prior.
San Antonio is 12-4 UNDER in road games this season. Detroit is 27-14 UNDER in its last 41 games when revenging a same-season loss. The UNDER is 8-2 in Spurs last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or greater (Detroit) - after one or more consecutive unders, a terrible offensive team scoring 104 or fewer points per game against an average defensive team that allows 108-114 points per game are 35-10 (77.8%) since 1996. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|01-01-22||Utah +4.5 v. Ohio State||Top||45-48||Win||100||75 h 28 m||Show|
20* Utah/Ohio State Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Utah +4.5
I don't think Ohio State is going to be that motivated even though the Rose Bowl is a New Year's 6 game. They had won eight straight games and looked destined to make the four-team playoff. But a loss to Michigan in the regular season finale cost them a trip to the Big Ten Championship where they would have throttled Iowa just as Michigan did.
Now the Buckeyes have had a ton of opt-outs, which is why this line has dropped. But it hasn't dropped enough as Utah should be favored given their motivational advantage and all the players the Buckeyes will be missing.
They will be without their top two receivers in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, who combined for 135 receptions, nearly 2,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. They will also be without DT Haskell Garrett and OT Nicholas Petit-Frere, fellow projected top picks alongside Olave and Wilson. So they will be without four of their best players.
Utah will be playing in its first Rose Bowl since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, so you know they will be motivated. The Utes are also one of the hottest teams in the nation having won six straight and nine of their past 10 games. They throttled Oregon twice by 31 and 28 points, the same Oregon team that went on the road and beat Ohio State earlier this season.
Utah limited four of its last five opponents to 13 points or fewer. QB Cameron Rising has given the offense a huge boost since taking over for Charlie Brewer. He has thrown for 2,279 yards with an 18-to-5 TD/INT ratio. His dual-threat ability has made this offense more dynamic as he has rushed for 407 yards and five scores while averaging 6.5 per carry.
Kyle Whittingham is 11-3 in bowl games and one of the best bowl coaches ever. He will have the Utes ready for this game, and they are expected to have a big home-field advantage with thousands of fans making the trip to Pasadena. I don't think the same can be said for the Buckeyes and head coach Ryan Day with all of these opt-outs. Utah likely wins this game outright.
Utah is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better. The Utes are 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 games as underdogs. The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a loss. Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games. Roll with Utah Saturday.
|01-01-22||Toledo +2 v. Kent State||63-66||Loss||-109||3 h 17 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Toledo +2
The Toledo Rockets are probably the best team in the MAC this season. They are 9-3 with all three losses coming on the road to quality competition in Michigan State, Richmond and Oakland. They covered against the first two teams in their road losses.
The Rockets have pretty much been crushing everyone else. They are +7.6 points per game based on what their opponents average on offense and give up on defense. Kent State is only +0.5 points per game based on what their opponents average on offense and give up on defense, so the Rockets are 7 points better on a neutral by my numbers and getting 2 points here on the road.
Kent State is just 5-6 this season. The Golden Flashes have losses to Towson State at home by 15 as 6.5-point favorites, Southern U at home as 14.5-point favorites and Central Michigan at home as 16-point favorites. If they're losing to those three teams outright at home, they aren't beating Toledo.
The Rockets are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after going under the total in their previous game. Toledo is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs. The Golden Flashes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Kent State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Take Toledo Saturday.
|01-01-22||Baylor v. Iowa State +8.5||Top||77-72||Win||100||3 h 1 m||Show|
20* Baylor/Iowa State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +8.5
The Iowa State Cyclones continue to get no respect from oddsmakers despite their 12-0 start this season. They have upset Xavier by 12 as 9-point dogs, Memphis by 19 as 11.5-point dogs, Creighton by 6 as 5.5-point dogs, and Iowa by 20 as 5-point dogs. They have proven themselves against quality competition.
Yet here they are catching 8.5 points at home to the Baylor Bears. It's time to 'sell high' on Baylor, which won the national championship last year and is off to a 12-0 start of its own this year. There won't be a better time to 'sell high' on them the rest of the season in my opinion than here in their Big 12 road opener against the Cyclones.
Baylor has only had to play one true road game this season. That resulted in a 78-70 win at Oregon as 7.5-point favorites. But that is a down Oregon team this season, and the Bears needed a late surge not only to cover, but to actually win the game straight up. Iowa State is much better than Oregon this season and now catching more points than Oregon was.
Iowa State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season. A bad Cyclones team that went 2-22 last year gave Baylor a run for its money twice, losing by 11 as 15.5-point home dogs and by 5 as 24-point road dogs. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|01-01-22||Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame -1.5||Top||37-35||Loss||-110||572 h 42 m||Show|
25* New Year's 6 Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame -1.5
Notre Dame is happy to be playing in the Fiesta Bowl. The Fighting Irish lost early in the season to Cincinnati in a bad spot where the Bearcats were coming off a bye while Notre Dame was coming off a physical game against Wisconsin in an impressive 41-13 win. So that head-to-head loss to Cincinnati was likely going to keep them out of the playoff anyway.
Oklahoma State, on the other hand, had a legit shot to make the four-team playoff. But they came up a yard short as they just couldn't score from the 1-yard line late in a 16-21 upset loss to Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game. This is actually a letdown for them having to play in the Fiesta Bowl when they could be in the four-team playoff instead.
The Fighting Irish have rallied around new head coach Marcus Freeman and offensive coordinator Tommy Reese. These two will lead this program for years to come after Brian Kelly left for LSU. You can tell the players love these two guys, and they'll show up for their coaches and play their hearts out in the Fiesta Bowl.
The key to beating Oklahoma State is to force Spencer Sanders to try and throw the football. He's a terrible passer and their passing game is the biggest weakness in this matchup. Notre Dame only allows 3.7 yards per carry and 127 rushing yards per game, so it's going to be tough sledding for this Cowboys offense. Sanders has a 16-to-12 TD/INT ratio on the season and is a turnover machine. His turnovers will be the difference in this game.
Jack Coan protects the football and has had a big season for the Fighting Irish. He is completing 67.6% of his passes with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio on the season. The Fighting Irish will be without leading rusher Kyren Williams, but he only averaged 4.9 yards per carry this season. I don't think his loss is as big as it is being made out to be. The fact of the matter is the Fighting Irish have the better talent across the board.
The Fighting Irish are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with six straight wins by double-digits coming in. Notre Dame is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after winning six or seven of its last eight games. The Fighting Irish are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|12-31-21||Georgia v. Michigan +8||Top||34-11||Loss||-115||236 h 19 m||Show|
20* Georgia/Michigan Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Michigan +8
The Michigan Wolverines have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They have gone 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS this season while outgaining their opponents by 136 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play. They remain undervalued as 8-point underdogs to Georgia in the Orange Bowl.
Not only did Michigan finally get that monkey off their back with their first win over Ohio State (42-27) under Jim Harbaugh, but they avoided the letdown the next week and crushed Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship. That let me know this team is serious about winning a national title, and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as this big of an underdog to Georgia.
The Big Ten was clearly the stronger of these two conferences and that has played out in the bowl games up to this point. Georgia faced a much easier schedule than Michigan this season. After opening 12-0 against a suspect schedule, the Bulldogs finally stepped up in class and were blasted 41-24 by Alabama while allowing 536 total yards. They were barely punished at all by oddsmakers for that loss as they remain overvalued here laying more than a touchdown to a Michigan team that is every bit as good as Alabama.
Both teams like to run the football and both teams are great at stopping the run. The weakness of both teams is their QB play, but I think it's actually more of an issue for Georgia than it is for Michigan. Cade McNamara has completed 65% of his passes with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season. Stetson Bennett is great at playing from ahead but we saw how bad he was when he had to try to play from behind against Alabama. Bet Michigan Friday.
|12-31-21||Mavs v. Kings UNDER 217.5||112-96||Win||100||8 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Mavericks/Kings UNDER 217.5
The Sacramento Kings just beat the Dallas Mavericks 95-94 for 189 combined points on Wednesday. Now they meet in Sacramento just two days later and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. This one will stay well UNDER the total as well.
Amazingly, the Kings and Mavericks combined for just 189 points despite both teams shooting well from the floor. The Mavericks shot 48% and the Kings 46.9%. But the Mavericks have to play at a snails' pace to have a chance right now with all their are missing.
Indeed, the Mavericks are without Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr, Maxi Kleber and Trey Burke right now due to COVID. They have been smart in staying competitive by slowing down the pace and playing great defense. That will be their formula against the Kings again tonight.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Mavericks last five games as favorites. The UNDER is 10-4 in Mavericks last 14 games overall. The UNDER is 14-6-1 in Mavericks last 21 games following an ATS loss. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Sacramento. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-31-21||Cincinnati +13.5 v. Alabama||6-27||Loss||-110||63 h 2 m||Show|
15* Alabama/Cincinnati Cotton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +13.5
The SEC is getting too much respect in these bowl games, and that includes Alabama. The Crimson Tide are getting a ton of respect after beating Georgia 41-24 in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama was in must-win mode while Georgia didn't need the win to make the four-team playoff, which is why I was on Alabama in that game.
But now the Crimson Tide come back as nearly two-touchdown favorites against a Cincinnati team that has earned the right to be in the four-team playoff. And I think they'll put up a much better fight than some of these other Power 5 teams have against Alabama in the past. The Bearcats played their best football of the season down the stretch with the pressure on.
Indeed, they went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three games overall. Many thought they would get a test from SMU, but they throttled the Mustangs 48-14 and outgained them by 345 yards. They went on to cover in a 35-13 win at East Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite and a 35-20 home win over Houston as a 10.5-point favorite in the AAC Championship. They also beat Notre Dame on the road 24-13 earlier this season to prove they could play with the big boys.
Cincinnati has a championship-level defense that can keep them in this game for four quarters. They allow just 16.1 points, 305 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play. They have a veteran dual-threat QB in Desmond Ridder who doesn't make mistakes. Ridder has a 30-to-8 TD/INT ratio this season and has rushed for 361 yards and six scores. Alabama's kryptonite has been dual-threat quarterbacks in the past. Think of Deshaun Watson of Clemson and Johnny Manziel and a few others at Texas A&M.
Cincinnati is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game. The Bearcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing against a team with better than a 75% winning percentage. Cincinnati is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. Take Cincinnati Friday.
|12-31-21||Bulls -4.5 v. Pacers||108-106||Loss||-110||5 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Bulls -4.5
The Chicago Bulls just got several players back from COVID and are playing like one of the best teams in the NBA right now because of it. They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 5 points or more. That will be enough to cover this 4.5-point spread at Indiana.
The Pacers are really struggling right now in going 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their two victories coming against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Pistons and Rockets. Each of their last four losses have come by 8 points or more. They are without Malcolm Brodgon and Chris Duarte right now due to COVID among a few others.
Chicago is 9-1 ATS vs. teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Bulls are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as favorites, including 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as road favorites. Chicago is 21-11 ATS in all games this season. Take the Bulls Friday.
|12-31-21||Suns -4.5 v. Celtics||Top||108-123||Loss||-110||3 h 15 m||Show|
20* Suns/Celtics Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Phoenix -4.5
The Phoenix Suns are 27-7 this season and in much better shape than the Boston Celtics right now in the COVID and injury department. They have five of their top six scorers available for this game against the Celtics with the exception behind De'Andre Ayton, who they have managed to play well without anyway.
The Boston Celtics will be without their best player in Jayson Tatum (25.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG) and their third-leading scorer in Dennis Schroder (16.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) today. Boston has lost three straight coming in, including an 82-91 upset home loss to the Los Angeles Clippers as 6-point favorites last time out.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more against an opponent that is off a cover as a double-digit favorite are 77-37 (67.5%) ATS since 1996. The Suns are 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings, including 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston. They won 111-90 at home in their first meeting this season. Bet the Suns Friday.
|12-30-21||Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6||13-20||Win||100||46 h 16 m||Show|
15* ASU/Wisconsin Las Vegas Bowl BAILOUT on Wisconsin -6
Wisconsin is one of the most underrated bowl teams this season. Their 8-4 record doesn't show how good this team really was this season. And their upset loss to Minnesota in the finale has them pissed off and undervalued coming into this Las Vegas Bowl against Arizona State.
"Obviously, the regular season didn't end the way we would've liked it," Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst said. "But I go back to the fact that this group truly does enjoy each other. They care about each other, and we've got one game that we can play and one more opportunity. I think for all those reasons, it means a lot to them."
The Badgers led the nation in total defense at 240.8 yards per game and were 6th in scoring defense at 16.4 points per game. This is the best unit on the field and it's not close. The Badgers outgained their opponents by 136 yards per game and 1.4 yards per play on the season. That is the sign of an elite team.
Arizona State's suspect offense is going to struggle to do anything against this Wisconsin defense. QB Jayden Daniels was a big disappointment this season accounting for only 16 total touchdowns. He had a 10-to-9 TD/INT ratio through the air. The Sun Devils rely heavily on the run to move the football as they average more rushing yards than passing. That isn't going to work against a Wisconsin defense that gives up just 66 rushing yards per game and 2.2 per carry.
Making matters worse for this ASU offense is that they will be without their best playmaker on offense and each of their top two rushers. They will be without RB Rachaad White and his 1,006 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, and backup RB DeaMonte Trayanum and his 402 rushing yards and six scores. Defensively, they will be without their top two cornerbacks in Chase Lucas and Jack Jones as they opted out to get ready for the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, Wisconsin should have all hands on deck as they have no opt-outs up to this point.
Wisconsin is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven bowl games. The Sun Devils are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 bowl games. Arizona State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game. The Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. I'll gladly side with the Big Ten over the Pac-12 in almost any bowl game blindly, but this one checks all the boxes for sure. Take Wisconsin in the Las Vegas Bowl Thursday.
|12-30-21||Denver +15 v. Oral Roberts||66-83||Loss||-110||9 h 60 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Denver +15
Denver is much better than its 5-10 record would indicate. Eight of the 10 losses have come by 14 points or more. And I fully expect them to stay within 15 points or Oral Roberts as this is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Pioneers.
Denver is only getting outscored by 3.8 points per game on the season. The Pioneers are actually only -1.5 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense. Compare that to Oral Roberts and we have an easy play here on Denver.
Indeed, Oral Roberts is only +3.1 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense. So the Golden Eagles are only +4.6 points per game better than Denver on a neutral based on my numbers. So they shouldn't be 15-point home favorites here.
The Pioneers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog. The Pioneers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after two straight games where they gave up 9 or fewer offensive rebounds. Oral Roberts is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite of 10 points or more. The Pioneers are 7-0 ATS vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season. Roll with Denver Thursday.
|12-30-21||South Alabama -2 v. Texas-Arlington||87-89||Loss||-105||9 h 59 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on South Alabama -2
South Alabama is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Jaguars are 10-3 this season and 7-2 ATS in lined games. They are +8.3 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense.
UT-Arlington has been a huge disappointment this season at 4-7 SU & 3-6 ATS. They are -2.9 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense. So that means South Alabama would be 11.2 points per game better than UT-Arlington on a neutral.
So we are getting tremendous value on the Jaguars as only 2-point road favorites here. Kenpom has South Alabama roughly 7 points better on a neutral. Close road losses to Alabama by 5 and Wichita State by 6 as 20.5 and 12.5-point dogs, respectively, shows what the Jaguars are capable of. Arlington lost by 20 to Oklahoma, by 9 to Oral Roberts, by 19 to Utah State and by 28 to North Texas.
Arlington is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game. Arlington is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a home win. The Jaguars are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Mavericks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Arlington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a win. Take South Alabama Thursday.
|12-30-21||South Dakota State -2 v. North Dakota State||90-86||Win||100||9 h 59 m||Show|
15* SDSU/NDSU Summit League ANNIHILATOR on South Dakota State -2
South Dakota State +8.4 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense. North Dakota State is actually -0.6 points per game based on what their opponents normally allow on offense and defense.
That means I have South Dakota State 9 points better than North Dakota State on a neutral. So getting them as only 2-point road favorites here against North Dakota State is a huge discount. Kenpom also has the Jackrabbits nearly 9 points better on a neutral.
The Jackrabbits have also played the tougher schedule facing the 144th-ranked slate compared to North Dakota State and the 264th-ranked slate. The Bison are getting too much respect for their 7-0 home record against Concordia-St. Paul, Tarleton State, Idaho, Northland, CS-Northridge, Indiana State and South Dakota. This will be by far their stiffest home test of the season.
North Dakota State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after scoring 85 points or more. The Bison are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games vs. explosive offensive teams that average 84 or more points per game. The Jackrabbits are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss. South Dakota State is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bison are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Roll with South Dakota State Thursday.
|12-30-21||Michigan -2.5 v. UCF||Top||71-85||Loss||-110||8 h 0 m||Show|
20* Michigan/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan -2.5
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Michigan Wolverines after a shaky 7-4 start to the season against a brutal schedule. They are better than they have shown thus far, and I look for them to handle their business in their final game before the new year.
UCF has struggled when stepping up in class. They lost at home to Oklahoma and on the road to Auburn by 17. This will be one of their toughest tests of the entire season, and it's basically in the pick 'em price range where Michigan just has to win to cover.
Michigan is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game. UCF is 2-9 ATS in its last nine games vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game. The Wolverines are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road favorites. The Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Take Michigan Thursday.
|12-30-21||Purdue v. Tennessee -5.5||Top||48-45||Loss||-117||39 h 47 m||Show|
20* Purdue/Tennessee Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Tennessee -5.5
Tennessee is excited to be playing in a bowl game in the first season under Josh Heupel. They will be well-represented in Nashville in the Music City Bowl, so it will be a nice home-field advantage for them. And I expect a big effort for the Volunteers, who have won four straight bowl games coming in.
All five of Tennessee's losses came against teams that are now ranked or were ranked at the time they played them. Their only losses came to Pittsburgh (by 7), Florida, Ole Miss (by 5), Alabama and Georgia. They have been through the gauntlet and their numbers are very impressive.
Tennessee puts up 38.8 points per game, 458.6 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense. Hendon Hooker is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country with a 69% completion percentage and a 26-to-3 TD/INT ratio to go along with 561 rushing yards and five scores. Their defense is very underrated as they give up just 5.2 yards per play, outgaining teams by 1.3 yards per play on the season.
Purdue had a great season and would give Tennessee a run for its money at full strength. But the fact of the matter is the Volunteers are nowhere near full strength. They will be missing their best player on offense and their best player on defense. WR David Bell is sitting out after finishing with 93 receptions for 1,286 yards and six touchdowns this season. DE George Karlafitis is also opting out as he will likely be a TOp 5 pick in the NFL Draft.
If being without Bell and Karlafitis wasn't enough, the Boilermakers will also be without offensive lineman Greg Long, CB Dedrick Mackey and WR Milton Wright. The Wright loss is even bigger due to the loss of Bell. Wright was their second-leading receiver with 57 receptions for 732 yards and seven touchdowns. So that's 150 receptions, 2,018 yards and 13 touchdowns combined between them gone. They already have a weak offense, and they will have a hard time keeping up with Tennessee without these guys. Bet Tennessee in the Music City Bowl Thursday.
|12-29-21||Tennessee v. Alabama -3||68-73||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
15* Tennessee/Alabama ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -3
This is a great time to 'buy low' on Alabama. They have been overconfident since a 91-82 upset win as 9.5-point underdogs to Gonzaga. They have since gone 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They are coming off an upset loss to Davidson as 9.5-point favorites that will have them pissed off and playing with a chip on their shoulder in this SEC opener against Tennessee.
The overconfident, relaxed team here is going to be Tennessee. That is because the Volunteers are coming off a 77-73 win over Arizona to hand the Wildcats their first loss of the season. That was a massive victory, and it was at home while this will be just the 2nd true road game for the Volunteers this season. This is a much stiffer test playing this pissed off Alabama squad.
The Crimson Tide are 6-0 SU at home this season and have a huge home-court advantage. The Volunteers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game. Alabama is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game. Take Alabama Wednesday.
|12-29-21||Hornets v. Pacers OVER 227||Top||116-108||Loss||-110||8 h 47 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pacers OVER 227
Charlotte ranks 1st in pace this season and 2nd in offensive efficiency. The Hornets are also dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency. That has made them a tremendous OVER team this season and they should take part in a shootout with the Indiana Pacers, who rank 20th in defensive efficiency.
The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Pacers and Hornets with combined scores of 261, 245 and 239 points. So this total of 227 simply has not been set high enough based on recent history between these two teams. None of those three games went to overtime, either.
The OVER is 7-0-1 in Hornets last eight games playing on one days' rest. The OVER is 9-2 in Pacers last 11 home games. The OVER is 8-1 in Pacers last nine games as home favorites. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|12-29-21||Iowa State v. Clemson -2||13-20||Win||100||6 h 37 m||Show|
15* Iowa State/Clemson Cheez-It Bowl Line Mistake on Clemson -2
Iowa State is going to be without one of the best players in the country in RB Breece Hall. He had nearly 1,800 scrimmage yards and 23 touchdowns while leading the nation in scoring. Clemson's stout defensive line won't have to respect the play-action, which is going to be a problem for QB Brock Purdy and this suspect Iowa State offensive line. Clemson had 24 sacks in their last five games, while Iowa State went 0-5 ATS in games they allowed multiple sacks this season.
But the hits have kept coming for the Cyclones. They will be without Co-Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Isheem Young, who is fourth in tackles and led the team in interceptions and was second in forced fumbles. They will be without CB Kym-Mani King and LB Aric Horne. And I added this pick on game day because I read that WR Xavier Hutchinson and LB Mike Rose will likely also be out. So it sounds like they'll be without their top RB, top WR, best defensive player in Rose, his backup, their starting safety, starting corner and starting center.
Clemson played up to its potential down the stretch in going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with those 24 sacks. Their defense is one of the best in the country and the best unit on the field, which is why they should win this game. Their offense scored at least 30 points in all five wins down the stretch. They simply have the better athletes on the field, and I don't give the Cyclones much of a chance with all they'll be missing.
Iowa State struggled when they stepped up in class this season losing to Iowa, Baylor and Oklahoma as well as upset losses to West Virginia and Texas Tech. They underachieved based on expectations, and they simply weren't that good. The Tigers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 bowl games. Clemson is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 December games. The Cyclones are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games, including 0-5 ATS in their last five neutral site games as underdogs. Take Clemson Wednesday.
|12-29-21||DePaul v. Butler -2||Top||59-63||Win||100||6 h 38 m||Show|
20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Butler -2
The Butler Bulldogs are 7-4 this season with their four losses coming to Purdue, Houston, Michigan State and Texas A&M. Three of those teams are three of the best teams in the country. They also upset Oklahoma as an 11-point road underdog.
While Butler has been through the gauntlet in the non-conference that will have them prepared for the Big East schedule, DePaul is grossly overvalued due to a 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS start against a much softer schedule. It's time to 'sell high' on the Blue Demons in their Big East opener.
DePaul played eight straight home games to open the season against soft competition. They played their last two on the road against more soft competition in Louisville and Illinois Chicago. While the Louisville upset was solid, that is a down Louisville team that is nowhere near as good as they were expected to be coming into the season. This is the toughest test of the season for the Blue Demons in my opinion.
Butler is 5-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Michigan State. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Bulldogs are 14-1 SU in their last 15 meetings with DePaul with 12 wins by double-digits. That includes 7-0 SU in their last seven home meetings. Bet Butler Wednesday.
|12-29-21||Maryland -3.5 v. Virginia Tech||Top||54-10||Win||100||15 h 56 m||Show|
20* Maryland/VA Tech ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Maryland -3.5
The Maryland Terrapins were sitting at 5-6 and facing 5-6 Rutgers with the winning getting a chance to go to a bowl game. The Terrapins won that game 40-16 in dominant fashion while outgaining the Scarlet Knights by 238 yards behind 575 total yards of offense against a good Rutgers defense.
It's safe to say that Maryland wants to be playing in this bowl game. The Terrapins haven't been to a bowl game since 2016 and haven't won one since 2010. They haven't had any key opt-outs, and this young team will relish this opportunity, as will head coach Mike Locksley.
The same cannot be said for Virginia Tech. This is a program in flux now after head coach Justin Fuente was fired on November 16th. Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Pry has been hired to replace Fuente, leaving J.C. Price as the interim coach to finish out this season.
The Hokies have been hit hard by opt-outs as they will be missing seven starters. They will be without QB Braxton Burmeister, wide receivers Tre Turner and Tayvion Robinson, cornerback Jermaine Waller, defensive end Amare Barno, NT Jordan Williams and OG Lecitus Smith.
Turner and Robinson were Virginia Tech's top two receivers, combining for 84 receptions, 1,234 yards and eight touchdowns. Robinson was also the punt returner. Burmeister entered the transfer portal as well. He threw for 14 touchdowns and four interceptions while also rushing for 521 yards and two scores.
Maryland played the 17th-toughest schedule in the country this season and actually outgained its opponents by 24 yards per game. Virginia Tech played the 65th-ranked schedule and was actually outgained by 14 yards per game. So the Terrapins were the better of these two teams even before all the opt-outs and distractions for the Hokies. They should be much more than a 3.5-point favorite given the circumstances.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Maryland) - off an upset win as a road underdog against n opponent that is off a road win are 41-17 (70.7%) ATS since 1992. Virginia Tech is 1-8 ATS following a win over the last two seasons. The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Bet Maryland in the Pinstripe Bowl Wednesday.
|12-28-21||Cavs -5.5 v. Pelicans||Top||104-108||Loss||-110||12 h 47 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers just continue being a gravy train and the books continue to fail to adjust for it. They have gone 20-13 SU & 25-8 ATS this season. They should be more than 5.5-point favorites tonight over the lowly New Orleans Pelicans, who are 12-22 SU & 15-19 ATS this season.
The Pelicans will be without Nickeil Alexander-Walker and could be without both Brandon Ingram (doubtful) and Josh Hart (questionable) tonight. This team is getting too much love for a recent 4-1 SU run against some weak competition.
The Cavaliers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall. They are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games with all 11 victories coming by double-digits! That includes a 144-99 home win over the Raptors last time out. And the Cavaliers are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game 6 days. They will be missing a few guys due to COVID, but they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.
Cleveland is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a favorite this season and winning by 23.0 points per game. Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.
|12-28-21||76ers -7 v. Raptors||114-109||Loss||-110||11 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia 76ers -7
The Toronto Raptors are a mash unit right now. They are missing three of their top five scorers in Fred VanVleet (20.1 PPG), OG Anunoby (19.3 PPG) and Scottie Barnes (15.6 PPG). The other two in the top five are questionable in Pascal Siakam (19.1 PPG) and Gary Trent Jr. (16.8 PPG).
The Raptors have a whopping 12 players on the injury report with nine listed as out and three as questionable. It's no wonder they had their doors blown off last time out in a 144-99 road loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. It won't go much better against the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.
The 76ers are close to being back to full strength and it showed last time out in a 117-96 win at Washington. They key is that they have each of their top four scorers healthy in Embiid, Harris, Maxey and Curry, who all average at least 16.2 points per game.
The 76ers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Raptors are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs. Roll with the 76ers Tuesday.
|12-28-21||Louisville v. Air Force +1||Top||28-31||Win||100||8 h 23 m||Show|
20* Louisville/Air Force First Responder Bowl No-Brainer on Air Force +1
Air Force went 9-3 this year and was very close to a perfect 12-0 season. All three losses were one-score games and by a combined 17 points. The Falcons should not be underdogs to this 6-6 Louisville team that didn't beat a single team with a winning record this season.
Air Force leads the country with 341.4 rushing yards per game. They should have success on the ground against a Louisville defense that allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. They haven't faced a rushing attack as potent as Air Force. The only one they did face that was close was Kentucky, and they allowed 362 rushing yards in a 52-21 loss in the regular season finale against the Wildcats.
While this Air Force rushing attack is potent, the defense has almost been more impressive. The Falcons rank 5th in the country in allowing just 288.8 total yards per game. They are 7th against the run at 95.6 yards per game and 20th against the pass at 193.3 yards per game. This is a below-average Louisville defense that ranks 84th at 402.5 yards per game allowed this season.
Air Force went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in road games this season. Louisville is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games off a home loss by 14 points or more. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game this season. Air Force is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by more than 20 points. The Falcons are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games. The Cardinals are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games vs. a team with a winning record. Louisville is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 non-conference games. Bet Air Force in the First Responder Bowl Tuesday.
|12-27-21||Dolphins -2.5 v. Saints||Top||20-3||Win||100||55 h 49 m||Show|
20* Dolphins/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -2.5
The New Orleans Saints have been hit hard by COVID this week. They will be without both Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian at quarterback after they were already without Jameis Winston. Now they will be starting 4th-stringer Ian Book, and they just signed Blake Bortles on Friday as insurance.
Sean Payton was allowed to return to the team on Friday. But three other coaches who tested positive aren't expected to coach Monday. On Saturday, DE Carl Granderson became the 16th player to test positive for COVID this week and the 19th person on the roster or the coaching staff to test positive since Tuesday.
The Saints have two available DE's on the active roster for Monday's game; Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport, and Davenport is questionable with shoulder and knee injuries. S Malcolm Jenkins, LB Demario Davis, T Ryan Ramczyk, LB Kaden Elliss, G James Carpenter, T Jordan Mills, S Jeff Heath, DT Christian Ringo, TE's Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson, special teams ace J.R> Gray and RB Dwayne Washington are the others outside the quarterbacks.
Don't look now but the Miami Dolphins are back to .500 and in position to make the playoffs after their 1-7 start. They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their defense is playing lights out during this stretch. They are giving up just 11.5 points per game during this six-game winning streak. It won't get any easier for a Saints offense that is averaging just 15.5 points per game in their last four games with a 4th-stringer at quarterback this week.
While the Saints are a mash unit right now, the Dolphins are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. And their offense gets a boost this week with the return of both WR Jaylen Waddle and RB Phillip Lindsay from the COVID list. Waddle is crucial as he has quickly become Tua's favorite target. He has 86 receptions for 849 yards and four touchdowns this season. Tua is quietly playing very well with a 70% completion percentage this season.
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after covering the spread in three of its last four games. New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. The Saints are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season. And this is definitely a potential letdown spot for the Saints off their big upset win over the Tampa Bay Bucs last week. That win was aided by a ton of injuries and attrition throughout the game to Tampa's offense. Bet the Dolphins Monday.
|12-27-21||Celtics v. Wolves UNDER 217.5||103-108||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Timberwolves UNDER 217.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a world of hurt right now, and I think it will lead to a low-scoring game tonight against the Boston Celtics. They will be missing at least seven players tonight due to COVID and four of their top five scorers.
The Timberwolves will be without Karl Anthony-Towns (24.5 PPG), Anthony Edwards (22.1 PPG) and De'Angelo Russell (18.7 PPG, 6.7 APG). They had been playing better with a healthy Russell back, and he makes them an OVER team. Without him plus both those guys they are definitely an UNDER team because I don't know where the offense is going to come from.
The Celtics have six players OUT due to COVID and three more either probable or questionable. One guy they will be missing that will impact this total is PG Dennis Schroder (16.3 PPG, 4.7 APG). He is a guy that likes to push the tempo and create easy baskets for himself and his teammates. Without Russell and Schroder, this is definitely an UNDER game.
The UNDER is 9-4-1 in Celtics last 14 road games. The UNDER is 13-5 in Celtics' 18 games as a favorite this season. The UNDER is 9-2 in Timberwolves last 11 Monday games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
|12-27-21||Bulls -5 v. Hawks||Top||130-118||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -5
The Chicago Bulls had five days off prior to beating the Pacers 113-105 last night. So I'm not concerned about them having to play the 2nd of a back-to-back here, especially since they just got Zach LaVine and five others back from COVID last night. They are a deep team and won't be tired anyway after having five days off prior to that game.
The Bulls should have plenty in the tank to blow out the short-handed Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks have 12 players out due to either COVID or injuries. That includes Trae Young, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Heurter, Lou Williams and John Collins. They are without seven of their top 10 scorers and coming off an 87-101 loss to the Knicks on Christmas Day.
Chicago is 31-13 ATS in its last 44 games vs. a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 3-11 ATS when playing a team with a winning record this season. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites. The Hawks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games. Atlanta is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Bulls Monday.
|12-26-21||Washington Football Team +10 v. Cowboys||Top||14-56||Loss||-103||31 h 54 m||Show|
20* Washington/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington +10
I love the spot for the Washington Football Team tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 20-27 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys two weeks ago. So this will be their 2nd meeting in 3 weeks. And Washington lost QB Taylor Heineke in that game to injury. He missed last week, but he will be back this week to give the offense a boost against the Cowboys.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. But they easily could have lost all three of those games. They have benefited from being +8 in turnovers in those three games. They beat the Saints 27-17 despite getting outgained by 28 yards. Washington was driving to tie the game late in their 27-20 loss. And the Cowboys only outgained the Giants by 26 yards in their 21-6 win. They got to face backup quarterbacks in all three victories.
This Dallas offense just can't be trusted to lay this big of a number. And their defense isn't as good as the points per game allowed would indicate. The Cowboys rank 21st in total defense at 22nd against the pass this season. They have simply benefited from being ball hawks, ranking 1st with 31 takeaways. That is pretty unsustainable.
Washington is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. Washington is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 trips to Dallas. The underdog is 29-14 ATS in the last 43 meetings. I know the Football Team will show up today to try and beat their hated rivals in the Cowboys. It should be good enough to stay within this inflated double-digit spread tonight. Roll with Washington Sunday.
|12-26-21||Pacers v. Bulls -6.5||105-113||Win||100||9 h 59 m||Show|
15* Pacers/Bulls NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -6.5
The Chicago Bulls are champing at the bit to get back on the court. They have been off since December 20th. That can only be a good thing as this time off has allowed them to get healthy and get several players back from the COVID list.
The Bulls get Zach LaVine and five others back from COVID today. They have compiled a 19-10 record this season despite battling through some COVID and injury issues. They are one of the best teams in the NBA when healthy, and that is pretty much the case now here at the end of December.
The Indiana Pacers are just 14-19 this season, including 3-12 on the road. They could be without their two best players in Malcolm Brogdon (achilles) and Domantas Sabonis (calf), who are both questionable. But they haven't been playing well even when healthy with recent blowout road losses to the Heat by 29 and the Bucks by 15. And it's worth noting the Heat were without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo while the Bucks were without Giannis among others.
The Pacers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games playing on two days' rest. The Bulls are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games. Chicago is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Bulls are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games as favorites. Take the Bulls Sunday.
|12-26-21||Pelicans v. Thunder||Top||112-117||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder PK
The Oklahoma City Thunder have quietly gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with three outright upset victories over the Clippers, Grizzlies and Nuggets. They also covered in losses to the Pelicans and Suns.
Now the Thunder get their shot at revenge after a 110-113 home loss to the Pelicans on December 15th. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tied the game with a 3-pointer in the closing seconds, only to lose on a heave from beyond half court at the buzzer. They haven't forgotten, and they will get their revenge.
While the Thunder are one of the healthiest teams in the NBA with nobody on the injury report, the same cannot be said for the Pelicans. They have eight players on the injury report and will be without both Jonas Valanciunas and Nickeil Alexander-Walker tonight, which are their 2nd and 3rd-leading scorers behind Brandon Ingram.
The Pelicans are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last six Sunday games. The Pelicans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on two days' rest. The Thunder are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Oklahoma City is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 Sunday games. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on two days' rest. Oklahoma City is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Thunder are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet the Thunder Sunday.
|12-26-21||Bears +6.5 v. Seahawks||Top||25-24||Win||100||95 h 38 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bears +6.5
The Seattle Seahawks just lost 20-10 on Tuesday to the Los Angeles Rams to fall to 5-9 on the season and assure a losing record. That defeat eliminated them from playoff contention. I think we see them very flat Sunday against the Chicago Bears because of it as they finally won't finish .500 or better with Russell Wilson.
The fact of the matter is the Seahawks aren't the better of these two teams anyway. Chicago is much better than its 4-10 record would indicate. And it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Bears after failing to cover the spread in five straight. But they deserved to cover in almost all of those.
Indeed, the Bears have amazingly outgained five of their last six opponents. They outgained the Steelers by 134 yards in their 27-29 road loss. They outgained the Ravens by 54 yards in their 13-16 home loss. They outgained the Lions by 139 yards in their 16-14 road win. They outgained the Cardinals by 72 yards in their 22-33 home loss. They did get outgained by 92 yards by the Pakcers on the road but held a 6-point halftime lead in that game. And last week they outgained the Vikings by 177 yards in their 9-17 home loss.
At some point, the Bears are going to win the stats and the scoreboard. I think this is the week against the Seahawks. Chicago has the 9th-ranked defense in the NFL giving up just 326.2 yards per game. Seattle ranks 31st in total defense, allowing 390.4 yards per game. The Seahawks are also 30th in total offense at 303.4 yards per game, getting outgained by nearly 90 yards per game on the season. That is the sign of a terrible team.
Chicago is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Off the loss to the Rams on Tuesday, this is a short week for the Seahawks getting only four days to get ready for the Bears. Nick Foles is not really a downgrade from Justin Fields and could provide this Chicago offense with a spark with his ability to stretch the field. Bet the Bears Sunday.
|12-26-21||Bucs v. Panthers +10||Top||32-6||Loss||-110||24 h 34 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers. They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. But that won't stop them from showing up against the defending Super Bowl champion and division rival Tampa Bay Bucs today. They would love nothing more than to beat the Bucs here Sunday.
The Panthers should be getting Sam Darnold back today which will give the offense an added dimension. They also will have a kicker, which they didn't have against Buffalo after he got hurt in pregame, which ultimately cost them the cover. And their best receiver in DJ Moore has been upgraded to probable today.
This Carolina defense is one of the best in the NFL. They rank 2nd in total defense at 294.4 yards per game. They are also 2nd in passing defense, allowing just 178.8 yards per game. That makes this an excellent matchup for them to be able to slow down Tom Brady and this Tampa Bay passing attack.
This Bucs' offensive attack got a lot less potent in their 9-0 loss to the Saints last week. Injuries hit them hard in that game and they aren't any better this week. The Bucs will now be without their top two receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. They will also be without RB Leonard Fournette. That's over 3,200 yards of offense and 27 combined touchdowns between those three. Not to mention, their defense will be without S Antoine Winfield Jr, LB Lavonte David and DE Jason Pierre-Paul. They also have a couple CB's questionable in the secondary.
Carolina is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games after four or more consecutive overs. The Panthers are 60-37 ATS in their last 97 games following a loss by 10 or more points. The Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|12-25-21||Liberty +8.5 v. BYU||75-80||Win||100||10 h 17 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Liberty +8.5
The Liberty Flames are one of the better mid major teams in the country. They have played a brutal schedule this season and already have wins over the likes of Missouri, Northern Iowa and East Carolina. They only lost to Stanford by 3 last round and will give BYU a run for its money in this game tonight.
BYU has not impressed me at all lately. They were upset by Utah Valley State as 13-point favorites. Creighton as 4.5-point favorites and Vanderbilt as 5-point favorites. They should not be 8.5-point favorites over this game Liberty team tonight.
The Flames are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog. Liberty is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 December games. The Flams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game. The Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites. Roll with Liberty Saturday.
|12-25-21||Warriors v. Suns UNDER 215||Top||116-107||Loss||-110||9 h 9 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Suns ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 215
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 3rd meeting between the Suns and Warriors since November 30th. They combined for 200 points in that first meeting and 214 points in the 2nd meeting. This 3rd meeting will stay UNDER this 215-point total as well.
A big reason the Warriors and Suns have the two best records in the NBA is because they are the top two defenses. Indeed, the Warriors rank 1st in defensive efficiency, allowing just 99.3 points per 100 possessions. The Suns are 2nd at 100.5 points per 100 possessions.
The Warriors are without some offensive firepower today as they will be without Jordan Poole (17.9 PPG) and Andrew Wiggins (18.7 PPG), their top two scorers behind Steph Curry. Points will be a lot harder to come by for the Warriors, especially with 5th-leading scorer Damion Lee (8.4 PPG) out as well.
Golden State is 9-0 UNDER when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season. The UNDER is 10-0 in Warriors' 10 games against teams with winning records this season. The UNDER is 12-0 in Warriors 12 games vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-25-21||Browns v. Packers -7||22-24||Loss||-110||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* Browns/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Green Bay -7
The Green Bay Packers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL and it's a big reason they have the best record in the NFC at 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS this season. And they have been unstoppable at home, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS while outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game. You know it's going to be a great atmosphere for this home game against the Cleveland Browns at Lambeau Field on Christmas Day as well.
The Browns are a mess right now. They are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Their two wins came against the Lions and the Ravens and their backups QB by a combined 5 points. They lost by 38 at New England, by 6 at Baltimore and at home to the lowly Raiders by 2. They are still missing a ton of key players, and I think they are getting too much respect with Baker Mayfield coming back because he has been terrible this season.
Green Bay is 8-0 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse this season. This is a short week for the Browns after playing on Monday, so they have just four days to get ready for the Packers. They haven't been practicing much as a team due to all of these COVID problems, so chemistry will continue to be a problem for them. The Packers have been in sync since Week 1. Take the Packers Saturday.
|12-25-21||Ball State v. Georgia State -5.5||Top||20-51||Win||100||86 h 24 m||Show|
20* Ball State/Georgia State Camellia Bowl No-Brainer on Georgia State -5.5
Georgia State played as well as anyone in the Sun Belt down the stretch with the exception of perhaps conference champion Louisiana. The Panthers rebounded from a 1-4 start by going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven games overall. They are clearly excited to be playing in this bowl game because they earned it.
They upset Coastal Carolina as 12.5-point road underdogs. Their only loss during this stretch came to Sun Belt champion Louisiana, 17-21 as 13.5-point road underdogs. But they easily could have won that game and actually led with under three minutes to play. Those efforts against Coastal and Louisiana show how good this team really is.
Ball State won the MAC last year and brought almost everyone back. The Cardinals were huge disappointments this season finishing just 6-6. Their last two wins came against Akron and Buffalo in non-impressive fashion against two of the worst teams in the MAC. They managed just 230 total yards against Buffalo and were outgained by 106 yards despite winning. They were outgained by 33 yards by Akron and needed to force a fumble at the goal line to escape with a 31-25 win as 20-point favorites.
This is a great matchup for Georgia State's offense. The Panthers rank 8th in the country in rushing at 225 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. They will be up against a Ball State defense that allows 170 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry. The Cardinals average just 335.9 yards per game on offense and give up 415.7 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by nearly 80 yards per game. This simply isn't a very good Ball State team with those numbers.
Georgia State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. It is winning by 15.3 points per game in this spot. The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against poor pass defenses that allow 62% completions or higher. Georgia State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a win. The Cardinals are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games. Roll with Georgia State Saturday.
|12-23-21||Spurs v. Lakers UNDER 223.5||138-110||Loss||-104||11 h 49 m||Show|
15* Spurs/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 223.5
The Lakers are missing so many players right now that they will have no other choice but to slow it down. They are without Anthony Davis, Malik Monk, Avery Bradley, Austin Reaves and Kent Bazemore. Look for them to continue slowing it down and run the offense through LeBron.
The Lakers are averaging just 101 points per game in their last five games. They have been solid defensively in holding nine of their last 11 opponents to 110 points or fewer. They are allowing just 103.1 points per game at the end of regulation in their last eight contests.
The Spurs are 11-3 UNDER in road games this season. The UNDER is 8-1 in Spurs' last nine road games revenging a loss this season. The Lakers are 30-16 UNDER in their last 46 games with a total of 220 to 229.5. The UNDER is 7-1 in Lakers last eight games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Lakers last six games as favorites. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|12-23-21||Thunder v. Suns UNDER 214.5||Top||101-113||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Suns UNDER 214.5
The Phoenix Suns are one of the best teams in the NBA this season due to ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency. They'll be up against an Oklahoma City team that ranks 29th in offensive efficiency tonight.
But the Thunder have been getting after it defensively of late in holding three straight opponents to 103 points or less and an average of 98.7 points per game. The Thunder will be tired tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 108-94 win over Denver last night, so they won't be looking to push the tempo.
The UNDER is 9-2 in Thunder last 11 games following a win. The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder last six games overall. The UNDER is 67-32-1 in Thunder last 100 games as road underdogs. The UNDER is 19-11 in Thunder's 30 games this season, while the UNDER is 17-12-1 in Suns' 30 games. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|12-23-21||49ers -3 v. Titans||Top||17-20||Loss||-125||84 h 36 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Titans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco -3
The San Francisco 49ers are a freight train right now. They are playing as well as almost anyone in the NFL in going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They were supposed to be one of the best teams in the NFL coming into the season but were hurt by injuries in the first half. Now that they've been a lot healthier they are playing up to their potential.
The 49ers made easy work of the Falcons in a 31-13 home victory last week. So they should still have plenty left in the tank for this short week game against Tennessee. They would be bigger favorites in this game if not for the short week and the West Coast team traveling East. But the 49ers have dominated when flying out East in recent seasons.
The Titans were grossly overvalued due to a great start this season behind Derrick Henry. But since Henry went down, the Titans have been awful. They have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They are broken on offense, scoring 23 or fewer points in five straight games and an average of just 16.4 points per game in their last five.
The Titans have passed for less than 200 yards in five of their last six games because they have also been without both AJ Brown and Julio Jones at times. Brown should be back this week, but Jones suffered a hamstring injury last week and is questionable. They still aren't the same team without Henry, Brown and Jones all healthy and they are only likely to have one of the three.
Tennessee has been relying heavily on running the football offensively even without Henry. But that's not going to work against the 49ers. They have allowed 86 or fewer rushing yards in five of their last six games overall. And the Titans have struggled despite playing five straight bad offensive teams in the Saints, Texans, Jaguars, Steelers and Patriots. The Titans will be without two starters on the offensive line as well in Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold.
Now they take a big step up in class here against a 49ers offense that is rolling since getting George Kittle and Deebo Samuel healthy. The 49ers have scored 23 or more points in six straight games and an average of 29.2 points per game. Samuel has seven rushing touchdowns and 1,088 receiving yards on the season. Kittle has 28 receptions for 425 yards and three touchdowns over the last three weeks. Bet the 49ers Thursday.
|12-23-21||Wizards -109 v. Knicks||Top||124-117||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards PK
The Washington Wizards come in on four days' rest having last played on December 18th in a 109-103 upset win at Utah as 9.5-point underdogs. Not only are the rested and ready to go, but they are one of the healthiest teams in the NBA right now.
The same cannot be said for the New York Knicks. They are just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall and decimated by COVID and injuries right now. They will be without Quentin Grimes, RJ Barrett, Kevin Knox, Immanuel Quickley, Derrick Rose and Nerlens Noel tonight.
Plays on road teams (Washington) - after losing five or six of their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Knicks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. New York is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. The Wizards are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to New York. Take the Wizards Thursday.
|12-23-21||Miami-OH v. North Texas OVER 54.5||Top||27-14||Loss||-105||39 h 25 m||Show|
20* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE WEEK Miami Ohio/North Texas on OVER 54.5
Two offenses that are better than they get credit for square off in the Frisco Football Classic in this matchup between the Miami Ohio Redhawks and North Texas Mean Green Thursday. Look for a shootout that easily tops this 54.5-point total today.
North Texas won five straight games to close the season behind an offense that put up 36.4 points per game during the winning streak. They rushed for over 300 yards three times and are an elite rushing offense. They should be able to run the ball at will on a Miami Ohio defense that gave up 161 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry this season.
Miami Ohio has scored 33 or more points in five of its last six games overall. They passes for 351 or more yards in three of their last four games. Brett Gabbert is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country with a 24-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season. They should be able to move the ball through the air on a North Texas defense that allows 7.7 yards per attempt while the Redhawks average 8.3 yards per pass attempt.
North Texas has played in shootouts in each of its last four bowl games because it always has a good offense and terrible defense. They combined for 84 points with Appalachian State last year, 65 points with Utah State in 2018, 80 points with Troy in 2017 and 69 points with Army in 2016. All four combined totals would easily top this 54.5-point total. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|12-22-21||Rockets +10.5 v. Bucks||106-126||Loss||-107||10 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +10.5
The Milwaukee Bucks have been a juggernaut when Giannis, Middleton and Holiday have been on the floor at the same time this season. Unfortunately for them, that has been few and far between. And the Bucks are not only without Giannis tonight, but also the underrated Bobby Portis.
Milwaukee has gone just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last three games overall with losses to the Celtics by 14, the Pelicans in overtime and the Cavaliers by 29. There's no way they should be a double-digit favorite against the Houston Rockets without Giannis and Portis.
This is a Rockets team that is about as healthy as any team in the NBA right now and playing well over the past month. The Rockets are 9-5 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They lost by 9 at home to a healthy Bucks team during this stretch on December 10th and will be out for revenge here tonight.
Milwaukee is just 1-12 ATS in its last 13 vs. Southwest Division opponents. The Bucks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. Milwaukee is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and haven't lost any of the last five meetings by more than 9 points. Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.
|12-22-21||Missouri v. Army -3.5||22-24||Loss||-115||60 h 1 m||Show|
15* Missouri/Army Armed Forces Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Army -3.5
The Army Black Knights completed an 8-4 season under head coach Jeff Monken and continue to be a powerhouse. And I think we are getting them cheap in the Armed Forces Bowl against Missouri due to getting upset by Navy in their regular season finale. But that was Navy's National Championship because they weren't going bowling.
Army knew they had this bowl game on deck, and they'll be looking to cap off the season on a high note. The loss to Navy only makes them even more motivated, and they'll have no problem getting up to face a team from the SEC in Missouri here to showcase how good they really are.
This will be Army's third trip to the Armed Forces Bowl in Monken's run of five bowl games in the past six seasons. They upset San Diego State 42-35 in 2017 and crushed Houston 70-14 in 2018. The Black Knights are now 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games. Their triple-option is tough for opponents to prepare for.
That will definitely be the case for Missouri as this is the perfect matchup for Army. The Black Knights ranked 2nd in the country in averaging 287 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. Missouri ranks 124th in the country against the run, allowing 229 rushing yards per game and a whopping 5.5 yards per carry. Army is going to be able to run the ball at will on this putrid Missouri defense.
The Tigers aren't a great passing team, averaging 6.6 yards per pass, and defending the pass is Army's weakness. The matchup is a good one for this Army defense, too. They give up just 111 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry. That will make life difficult on a Missouri offense that relies heavily on the run at 180 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.
Missouri is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games overall. The Tigers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Missouri is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 December games. The Black Knights are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 December games. The Tigers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers. Monken is 9-1 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 points or less as the coach of the Black Knights. Take Army Wednesday.
Update: This line has moved in Army's favor since I published it early in the week due to the SEC's leading rusher being out for Missouri. Tyler Badie's absence is a huge blow to the Missouri offense as he had 1,942 yards from scrimmage and 18 touchdowns, including 1,612 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. I would still recommend a play at -6.5, but this play will be graded at -3.5.
|12-22-21||Oral Roberts v. South Dakota State OVER 162.5||Top||76-82||Loss||-110||10 h 33 m||Show|
20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oral Roberts/South Dakota State OVER 162.5
Oral Roberts and South Dakota State are both fast-tempo teams and offensive juggernauts that play little defense. The Jackrabbits average 87.4 points per game this season while the Golden Eagles put up 81.1 points per game. Both shoot a ton of 3-pointers and shoot them well with South Dakota State at 44.3% as a team and Oral Roberts at 39.5% as a team.
This total has been set too low based on the three meetings between these teams last season, and both teams have almost all their players back. They combined for 189, 175 and 178 points in their three meetings last season. This total has been set at just 162.5, so there is plenty of value with the OVER.
South Dakota State is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games after playing a home game. The Jackrabbits are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games off a blowout home win by 20 points or more. South Dakota State is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game. The OVER is 45-15 in Golden Eagles last 60 games following an ATS win. The OVER is 20-6 in Jackrabbits last 26 home games. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|12-22-21||Murray State +12.5 v. Auburn||58-71||Loss||-101||8 h 33 m||Show|
15* Murray State/Auburn SEC Network ANNIHILATOR on Murray State +12.5
Murray State is 10-1 this season and getting zero respect from oddsmakers today as 12.5-point underdogs to Auburn. We'll take advantage and back the Racers in a game I believe they take the Tigers to the wire.
Murray State already went on the road and upset Memphis as a 10-point underdog, so they have proven they can hang with the big boys. And I look at this as a letdown spot for the Tigers, who are coming off a 74-70 win at Saint Louis and have their SEC opener against LSU on deck. This is a sandwich and lookahead spot for Auburn.
Matt McMahon is 9-1 ATS in road games after scoring 85 points or more in two straight games as the coach of Murray State. Bruce Pearl is 10-19 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game as the coach of Auburn. The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Murray State Wednesday.
|12-22-21||Southern Illinois +11 v. San Francisco||52-64||Loss||-110||7 h 33 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +11
San Francisco is coming off five straight huge games against UAB, UNLV, Fresno State, Grand Canyon and Arizona State with four of them decided by 8 points or fewer. This is an obvious letdown spot for them with Southern Illinois coming to town. Not to mention, the Dons are tired playing their 3rd game in 5 days here.
Southern Illinois has impressed me this season with its 7-4 start with three of the four losses coming by 4 points or fewer. The Salukis are that close to being a 10-1 team. I love how they get after it defensively in holding opponents to 58.5 points per game and nearly 8 points per game below their season averages.
The Dons are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games overall as they have consistently been overrated. The Dons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorites. San Francisco is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games following a win. The Salukis are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. good shooting teams that make at least 45% of their shots. Take Southern Illinois Wednesday.
|12-21-21||Pacers -1.5 v. Heat||Top||96-125||Loss||-110||9 h 35 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5
The Indiana Pacers have gone 4-2 SU in their last six games overall with their only losses coming to the Warriors (by 2) and the Bucks on the road. They are one of the healthiest teams in the NBA right now and should be able to handle the short-handed Miami Heat tonight.
The Heat are coming off an upset loss to the lowly Detroit Pistons as 6.5-point favorites. They are without Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Markieff Morris, PJ Tucker and Caleb Martin. They would be without Tyler Herro, who is questionable. They won't even be able to compete with a team the caliber of Indiana without these guys.
The Pacers have had the last four days off, so they are fresh and ready to go. Indiana is 39-19-2 ATS in its last 60 games playing on 3 or more days' rest. The Pacers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Pacers Tuesday.
|12-21-21||San Diego State v. UTSA +3||Top||38-24||Loss||-100||35 h 57 m||Show|
20* SDSU/UTSA Frisco Bowl No-Brainer on UTSA +3
The UTSA Roadrunners went 12-1 this season with their only loss coming in a meaningless game against North Texas in the regular season finale. They were coming off their huge win against UAB to clinch their spot in the C-USA title game, and they had that game on deck against Western Kentucky. North Texas needed the win to make a bowl game so it was just the perfect storm for the Roadrunners to lose that game.
They rebounded with a dominant 49-41 win over Western Kentucky in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. They led 42-13 before the Hilltoppers made a late run with their dynamic passing game, which they always seem to do. And beating Western Kentucky twice this season looks even better now with how well Conference USA looks in bowl games thus far.
Middle Tennessee won outright against Toledo as a double-digit dog, Western Kentucky upset Appalachian State 59-38, UAB upset BYU 31-28 and UTEP covered as a double-digit dog in a 24-31 loss to Fresno State. The conference is 4-1 ATS in bowl games already with the only non-cover coming on Marshall after getting outscored by 20 points in the 4th quarter of a 36-21 loss to Louisiana (13-1).
San Diego State went 11-2 this season but lost badly 46-13 to Utah State in the Mountain West Championship Game. I don't see them being all that motivated to play UTSA after losing that game. The Aztecs have six wins by one score this season and aren't as good as their record.
I like the matchup for UTSA because their weakness on defense is against the pass, and San Diego State only averages 25 pass attempts and 158 passing yards per game. The Aztecs rely on the run to move the football, and UTSA ranks 11th in the country in yards per carry (3.2) allowed while giving up just 111 rushing yards per game.
UTSA will be the more motivated team to get to 13 wins and capture their first bowl win in program history. The Roadrunners will also have the home-field advantage with thsi game being played in Frisco, Texas. The fans sold out their home game against Western Kentucky in the C-USA Championship Game and it was a huge advantage. They will travel the four hours to support their team here in Frisco, too.
UTSA is 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. The Roadrunners are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. UTSA is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog. The Aztecs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites. Roll with UTSA Tuesday.