20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -115

The Chicago Cubs are 9-4 in their last 13 games overall and have scored a total of 20 runs in their last two games.  The San Francisco Giants are 1-5 in their last six games and have scored a total of 5 runs in the five losses.  They have been held to one run in 27 innings in losing each of their last three games coming in.

The Giants will stay cold at the plate against Kyle Hendricks, who is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in his last three starts.  Hendricks ranks among the MLB leaders with 16 starts allowing 3 earned runs or fewer since May 25th.  He nearly threw a no-hitter in his last start against the Giants on June 10th, firing 8 shutout innings while allowing only two base runners.

Hendricks is now 6-2 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.924 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Giants.  He and the Cubs should be much bigger favorites today considering how poorly the Giants have hit the ball of late.  Opener Ryan Walker goes for the Giants before giving way to the bullpen and likely the awful Sean Manaea.

The Cubs are 26-7 in Hendricks' last 33 home starts as a favorite of -150 or less.  The Giants are 0-7 in their last seven road games after batting .200 or worse over a 5-game span.  San Francisco is 4-18 in its last 22 road games.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-114)

The Baltimore Orioles continue coming up clutch trying to win the AL East.  They are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in nine of those 11 games.  They are raking right now and will stay hot at the plate against Kenny Rosenberg, who will be making his first start of the season for the lowly Angels.

The Angels have been a dumpster fire since the trade deadline.  They are 8-22 in their last 30 games overall, including 1-6 in their last seven games and were just swept at Oakland over the weekend while getting outscored 21-9 in the process.

Grayson Rodriquez is going through his best stretch of the season for the Orioles.  He is 2-1 with a 2.32 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 42 2/3 innings while allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in all seven starts.

Baltimore is 13-1 in its last 14 games as a road favorite of -125 or more and outscoring opponents by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Monday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -132

The San Francisco Giants have gone 1-4 in their last five games overall while scoring a total of 5 runs in the four losses.  They just cannot hit.  Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs just hung 15 runs on the Reds yesterday and are feeling good about themselves at the plate.

They will get to Logan Webb, who is 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA in his last three starts.  Webb has posted a 4.15 ERA in two career starts against the Cubs.  He is getting too much respect from oddsmakers with this money line today.

Ace Justin Steele goes for the Cubs and will make life even more difficult on this weak San Francisco lineup.  Steele is 15-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 12 of his last 14 starts.  Bet the Cubs Monday.

20* LSU/Florida State ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 56.5

This will actually be the 3rd meeting in three seasons between Brian Kelly and Mike Norvell.  Florida State played Notre Dame to open the season in 2021 when Kelly was there.  And last year Florida State beat LSU 24-23 to open the season for just 47 combined points.  It's safe to say these two head coaches are familiar with one another and their schemes, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  That's amplified when both teams have had all offseason to prepare for one another.

Florida State's defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that gave up 20.6 points per game and 322 yards per game last season.  LSU's defense is loaded as well with seven returning starters from a unit that allowed 22.5 points and 355 yards per game last year.  The advantage goes to these two defenses over the offenses.

The offenses were held in check last year with Florida State getting 24 points and gaining 392 total yards and LSU getting 23 points and 352 total yards.  Now with the rule changes the clock won't stop on first downs and I can't see either team topping 400 yards in this one given the familiarity and the fact that both teams want to establish the run.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (LSU) - in a game involing two teams that had winning records last season in non-conference Power 5 games are 66-20 (76.7%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 56.5 to 63 (LSU) - a good offense from last season that average 400 or more yards per game between two teams with eight or more offensive starters returning in the first two weeks of the season are 23-3 (88.5%) over the last five seasons.  Kelly is 38-21 UNDER when the total is 56.5 to 63 points in all games as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Yankees/Astros ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The Houston Astros are raking right now scoring a total of 59 runs in their last seven games for an average of 8.3 runs per game.  The New York Yankees have gotten their bats going again scoring 4 runs or more in nine of their last 11 games overall.  I think both teams get 4-plus runs in this one as we easily cash this OVER 8.5 ticket.

Christan Javier has taken a big step back for the Astros this season with a 4.66 ERA in 25 starts.  Javier has a 7.24 ERA and 2.121 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 29 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.  He allowed 3 earned runs, 2 homers and 7 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Yankees in 2023.

Micheal King is basically just an opener for the Yankees and has averaged 2.9 innings per start in his three starts this season.  He has faced the Tigers, Nationals and Marlins, which are three of the worst lineups in the league.  Now he takes a big step up in class here against Houston.

Houston is 14-3 OVER when revenging a one-run loss this season.  The OVER is 17-7-1 in Javier's 25 starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Dodgers OVER 9

Two of the hottest offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers have scored at least 5 runs in nine of their last 11 games and are scoring 5.6 runs per game on the season.  The Braves have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last 10 games and are averaging 5.8 runs per game this season.

This total is too low for these two offenses.  Charlie Morton is pitching well of late but takes a big step up in class here.  Morton is 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA in nine career starts against the Dodgers.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them.  He'll be opposed by Bobby Miller, who has posted a 5.28 ERA in eight home starts this season.

The Dodgers are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Los Angeles is 12-1 OVER in its last 13 games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas Rangers -135

The Texas Rangers will be highly motivated for a victory today after suffering three consecutive losses, including each of the first two games of this series to the Twins.  They will avoid the sweep today and salvage with a victory in Game 3 due to their advantage on the mound.

Jon Gray is 8-7 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.199 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Kenta Maeda, who is 3-7 with a 4.69 ERA in 16 starts this season.  Maeda has really been roughed up of late with an 8.31 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 13 innings to the Guardians, Brewers and Tigers.

The Twins are 1-8 in Maeda's nine day game starts this season.  Bet the Rangers Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Royals OVER 9.5

It has been hot in Kansas City all weekend with the wind blowing out to center and that will be the case again Sunday.  These teams combined for 15 runs in Game 1 and 14 runs in Game 2 and it should be more of the same in Game 3.  Temps will be in the 90's with double-digit winds blowing out to center this afternoon.

Chris Sale is 5-3 with a 4.75 ERA in 15 starts for the Red Sox this season, including 4-3 with a 5.44 ERA in eight road starts.  Taylor Clarke is merely an opener for the Royals today as they will make this a bullpen game.  The Royals have a 5.29 ERA as a bullpen this season and a 5.61 ERA at home.

The OVER is 15-5 in Sale's last 20 starts with a total set of 8.5 to 10 runs.  Boston is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 road games vs. a AL team with a .330 OBP or worse.  Boston is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 road games vs. a AL team hitting .255 or worse.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9.5

Two of the hottest offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers have scored at least 5 runs in nine of their last 10 games and are scoring 5.6 runs per game on the season.  The Braves have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last nine games and are averaging 5.9 runs per game this season.

This total is too low for these two offenses.  Plus, both of these starting pitchers are vulnerable.  Bryce Elder is 5-3 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 12 road starts this season.  Emmet Sheehan is 3-1 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 7.90 ERA and 1.756 WHIP in his last three.

The Dodgers are 11-0 OVER in their last 11 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Los Angeles is 12-0 OVER in its last 12 games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on South Alabama +6.5

South Alabama went 10-3 last season with two of the losses coming 32-31 at UCLA and 10-6 to Troy, which won the Sun Belt.  They also lost to Western Kentucky in the bowl and weren't motivated after not getting a shot at a conference title or a better bowl game.

Now South Alabama comes back motivated and returns a whopping 18 starters, making them one of the most experienced teams in the country.  They have nine starters back on offense and nine more back on defense, including each of their top six tacklers from last year.  They scored 31.2 points per game and allowed 21.3 points per game and outgained their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game.

I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on Tulane early in the season.  They came out of nowhere to win the AAC Title last year and also capped it off with an improbable 46-45 win over USC in the Cotton Bowl, coming back from 14 points down in the final minutes.  That was also an unmotivated USC team that had just lost in the Pac-12 Championship and didn't want to be playing Tulane.

The Green Wave have some big losses on both sides of the ball.  They lose RB Tyjae Spears, who rushed for 1,581 yards and 19 touchdowns last year while averaging 6.9 per carry.  They lose each of their top two receivers.  On defense, they lose each of their top five tacklers and won't be nearly as good on either side of the ball after outgaining opponents by 81 yards per game last season.  I think the Green Wave open 2023 a little flat after a historic season last year that will be hard to match.  Bet South Alabama Saturday.

20* UNC/South Carolina ABC No-Brainer on North Carolina -2.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are loaded this season.  They have 17 returning starters entering the 5th year of the Mack Brown era.  That includes arguably the best quarterback in the country in Drake Maye, who threw for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions, while also rushing for 698 yards and seven scores as a freshman last year.

Maye is among nine returning starters on offense.  They have 137 career starts returning along the offensive line and add OL coach Randy Clements, who helped North Texas average 200 rushing yards per game last year.  The only two big losses are their top two receivers, but they add in productive Kent State and Georgia Tech transfers.

The defense has the chance to be one of the most improved in the country with eight starters back from a unit that was a disappointment last year, allowing 30.8 points and 437 yards per game.  They hired former Indiana defensive coordinator Charlton Warren to right the ship.  He has a ton of talent to work with and each of the top five tacklers back from last year.

South Carolina will be one of the least-experienced teams in the country this year.  The Gamecocks return only 10 starters after having 14 and 15 back in Shane Beamer's first two seasons on the job.  Beamer did a good job of getting the most out of those teams, but he has his hands full this year even with QB Spencer Rattler back.

The Gamecocks return six starters on offense and will be larning new schemes under coordinator Dowell Logains, who was the TE coach at Arkansas the last two years.  The Gamecocks lose their leading rusher and have to replace four of their top five receivers.  Chemistry will be an issue on this side of the ball in the early going.

The defense looks even bleaker.  The Gamecocks allowed 28.8 points per game and 405 yards per game last season.  Only four starters return, and they lose seven of their top 11 tacklers.  

The hype on the Gameocks is high after finishing strong last year beating Tennessee and Clemson and also giving Notre Dame a run for its money in the bowl game.  The Tar Heels are flying under radar because they lost their final four games last season after a 9-1 start.  Three of those four losses came by 4 points or fewer.  They have been pissed off all offseason due to that finish and will come out swinging in Week 1.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

15* Toledo/Illinois Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toledo +9.5

The Toledo Rockets are the class of the MAC this season.  They won 9 games last year with four of their five losses coming by one score.  So they only lost one game by this kind of margin, which came against one of the best teams in the country in Ohio State.

The Rockets now return 16 starters from that squad and have a ton of talent.  They bring back QB Finn, all of their top rushers and each of their top two receivers.  They also return four starters along the offensive line plus get back Tyler Long from injury and he has 19 career starts with the team.

The Toledo defense returns eight starters from a unit that only allowed 25.1 points and 326 yards per game last season.  They have the defense that can keep them in this game with Illinois, plus they'll make enough plays on offense to give the Fighting Illini all they can handle.

I think this is a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois after a surprising 2022 campaign in which they went 8-5 after losing 19-10 to Ole Miss in the bowl game.  Illinois is going to have a good defense again, but they do lose three of their top four tacklers and coordinator Ryan Walters left for Purdue.

My biggest problem with Illinois is the offense, which loses QB Tommy DeVito and leading rusher Chase Brown, who rushed for 1,643 yards and 10 TD Last year.  Illinois is not going to be able to score enough points to consistently get margin this season, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us with this offense is asking too much.

Illinois is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

15* Phillies/Brewers NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

The Milwaukee Brewers are absolutely raking at the plate right now.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 10 of their last 12 games overall with the only two exceptions being when the wind was blowing in heavy at Wrigley Field two days in a row.  The same can be said for the Phillies, who have scored at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  This is a very low total for how hot these offenses are up against these two starting pitchers today.

Colin Rea is 5-5 with a 5.06 ERA in 19 starts this season while allowing 19 homers in 99 2/3 innings.  Rea is 2-3 with a 5.58 ERA in 10 home starts, allowing 12 homers in 50 innings.  He'll be opposed by Aaron Nola, who has been great at home but terrible on the road.  Nola is 6-5 with a 5.26 ERA in 15 road starts this season, allowing 19 homers in 90 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 13-2 in Rea's last 15 home starts as an underdog.  The OVER is 13-3 in Nola's last 16 road starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Texas Rangers -1.5 (+107)

I like the Texas Rangers to bounce back in blowout fashion today due to their advantage on the mound.  The Minnesota Twins have huge righty/lefty splits this season and are hitting just .222 and scoring 3.5 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.  The Rangers are hitting .273 and scoring 6.1 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.

Lefty Jordan Montgomery is 8-10 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.201 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Montgomery has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 12 of those, and one earned run or fewer in nine of them.

Lefty Dallas Kechel goes for the Twins.  He is washed up and no more than a fill-in starter.  Keuchel is 1-1 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in three starts this season.  His lone road start was a complete disaster as he allowed 6 earned runs and 8 base runners in 1 2/3 innings of a 13-2 loss at Philadelphia.  Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Saturday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Yankees/Astros OVER 8.5

The Houston Astros are raking right now scoring a total of 55 runs in their last six games for an average of 9.2 runs per game.  The New York Yankees have gotten their bats going again scoring 4 runs or more in eight of their last 10 games overall.  I think both teams get 4-plus runs in this one as we easily cash this OVER 8.5 ticket.

Luis Severino has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 4-7 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.626 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-5 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in nine road starts.  Severino is also 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 11 career starts against Houston, including 0-5 with a 5.26 ERA in his last five starts against them while allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 25 2/3 innings.

Hunter Brown is one of the most overrated starters in baseball for Houston.  He is 9-9 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.336 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  While Brown has been much better on the road, he has been awful at home, going 3-5 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.568 WHIP in 10 home starts this season.  Brown is also 1-2 with an 8.56 ERA and 1.756 WHIP in his last three starts coming in.

The Yankees are 12-3 OVER in road games following two or more consecutive unders this season.  Severino is 34-19 OVER in his 53 career starts after allowing one earned run or fewer in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Colorado State +11

The Colorado State Rams will be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Jay Norvell stepped into a tough situation in his first season and the Rams went 3-9.  They played well defensively allowing 26.9 points per game and 355 yards per game, but Norvell didn't have the players to run his air raid system that he perfected at Nevada prior.  Now he does.

The Rams return 15 starters including seven on offense.  They bring back QB Clay Millen, who completed 72.2% of his passes.  Also back are leading receiver Tory Horton (71 receptions, 1,131 yards, 8 TD) and leading rusher Avery Morrow (834 yards, 4 TD, 4.8/carry).  Eight starters are back on defense and this should be one of the top stop units in the MWC.

I'm pretty down on Washington State this season.  The Cougars only have 12 starters back from a team that went 7-6 last season.  They only beat one team that went to a bowl game last year, and they lost 29-6 to fellow Mountain West foe Fresno State in their bowl game.

QB Cameron Ward is back for the Cougars, but he loses each of his top four receivers from a year ago, and chemistry will be an issue.  The defense only brings back five starters from a unit that gave up 402 yards per game last season.  They will take an even bigger step back on this side of the ball.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Colorado State) - a terrible offensive team from last season that scored 14 or fewer points per game, with an experienced QB returning as a starter in the first month of the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* UTSA/Houston FS1 No-Brainer on UTSA ML -120

Jeff Traylor is doing a tremendous job at UTSA.  They won the conference title each of the last two seasons going 12-2 in 2021 and 11-3 in 2022.  It should be more of the same here in 2023 with 16 returning starters including QB Frank Harris, who it feels like has been here for a decade.

Harris completed 70% of his pases for 4,063 yards with a 32-to-9 TD/INT ratio last year, while also rushing for 602 yards and nine scores.  Leading rusher Kevorian Barnes (845 yards, 6 TD, 6.3/carry) returns, as do four of the fop five receivers.  Eight starters are back on this explosive offense that put up 36.8 points and 476 yards per game last season.

This has the potential to be one of the best defenses of the Traylor era with eight returning starters on defense.  They only had five back last year and still only allowed 25.9 points per game.  Now they have eight starters back on defense this season and added in a ton of talent at the junior college level.  They have three first or second-team All-USA players returning in NG Brown, LB Moore and LB Ligon.

UTSA will love the opportunity for revenge after losing 35-37 (3 OT) to Houston last year.  I like their chances considering all that Houston lost in the offseason, plus I'm just not a fan of head coach Dana Holgorsen.  The Cougars only return 12 starters with their biggest losses coming on offense.

QB Clayton Tune is gone after finishing as the school's 3rd all-time leading passer.  He had a 40-to-10 TD/INT ratio last year while also leading the team in rushing with 544 yards and five scores.  His favorite target in Tank Dell, who had 109 receptions for 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, is gone.

Houston really slipped defensively last year allowing 32.2 points and 422 yards per game.  I have a hard time seeing the Cougars being much better on this side of the ball considering they lose eight of their top nine tacklers from a year ago.  

Holgorsen is 3-12 ATS in Saturday home games as the coach of Houston.  Traylor is 12-4 ATS in Saturday road games as the coach of UTSA.  The Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  Houston opened the favorite but now UTSA is favored, and I whole-heartedly agree with that move.  Bet UTSA on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Army -8.5

You'll almost never see a service academy with 17 returning starters because there's usually so much turnover with these programs.  But that's the case for the Army Black Knights this year.  They return 17 starters from a team that was disappointed to finish 6-6 last season with three losses by 1 to Troy, by 6 to Air Force and by 3 to UTSA.  Those were three of the best Group of 5 teams in the country last year.

The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks are one of the worst Group of 5 teams.  They went 4-8 last season for a second consecutive year under Terry Bowden.  But now Bowden only has 10 returning starters this season and lost a lot to the transfer portal.  That includes QB Chandler Rogers, who left for North Texas after completing 67.5% of his passes last year.

ULM only averaged 22.2 points per game last season and will be even worse off on offense this season.  The Warhawks gave up 34.4 points per game last season and won't be much better on defense with only five starters back.

We saw this matchup last season as Army blasted Louisiana-Monroe 48-24 and gave up 441 rushing yards to the Black Knights.  It will be more of the same in the rematch, and I see another double-digit win coming for Army as they run all over the Warhawks.  Bet Army Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Wisconsin -27.5

The Wisconsin Badgers got their guy.  Luke Fickell proved he's one of the best head coaches in the country by taking Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff becoming the first coach to take a Group of 5 team to the big dance.  Now he steps into a tremendous situation here at Wisconsin.

The Badgers are loaded with talent and experience with 18 returning starters this season.  They add in SMU transfer QB Tanner Mordecai, who completed 66% of his passes for 7,152 yards and a 72-to-22 TD/INT ratio.  The Badgers have been missing a quarterback for years, but now they have their guy.  He'll thrive in OC Phil Longo's system after Longo produced record-breaking offenses at North Carolina the last four years.

Wisconsin always has an elite defense and that won't change this year.  They only had three starters back on defense last year and still only allowed 20.2 points per game.  Now they have eight starters back on D this year and the last two times they had eight back they allowed 16.2 and 17.4 points per game.

The Buffalo Bulls are in a world of hurt this year.  They return just 10 starters for head coach Maurice Linguist.  They were fortunate to get to a bowl last year and won their final two games by a combined 3 points.  We saw Buffalo get a taste of a Big Ten school in the opener last year as they lost 31-10 at Maryland.  It will be an even bigger step up in class here for them against Wisconsin, and I fully expect the Badgers to win by four-plus touchdowns.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* Rice/Texas CFB ANNIHILATOR on Rice +35.5

The Rice Owls have improved every season under head coach Mike Bloomgren which is why he is entering his 6th season with the program.  He is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country as earned his chops under David Shaw at Stanford.

The Owls won 5 games last season including upset wins over Louisiana and UAB and were invited to a bowl, so they benefitted from all the extra bowl practices for the first time since 2014.  They nearly upset Houston, FAU and North Texas, losing all three of those games by single score.  Now they have 15 starters back from that team and got a huge addition to the offense in West Virginia transfer QB JT Daniels.  He is by far the best quarterback Rice has had in a long time.

Texas is getting a lot of hype this year as it seems everyone thinks they're back and will win the Big 12.  But I still don't trust Steve Sarkisan even with all the talent he has brought here.  And it's asking a lot for Texas to win by more than five touchdowns to cover this number in their opener on Saturday.  I'll gladly fade the hype.

Plays on any team (Rice) - in the first two weeks of the season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final three games while finishing with a losing record are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Rice Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +35.5

Head coach Don Brown is a UMass legend.  It was a rebuilding year in his first season back with the program last year as the Minutemen went 1-11.  Now he has his players in place and 15 returning starters in his second season back, and we've already seen what this team is capable of.

In Week 0 UMass upset New Mexico State, which made a bowl game last year, 41-30 as 7-point underdogs.  UMass rushed for 197 yards in the win but also look like they found their quarterback in Georgia Tech transfer Taisun Phommachanh, who completed 10-of-17 passes for 192 yards.  He also led them an the ground with 96 rushing yards on 17 attempts and a score and I love his dual-threat ability.  Brown is a defensive guy and will come up with a good game plan to slow down Auburn.

Hugh Freeze is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country and has made me a lot of money over time.  But he won't be hitting on all cylinders early in his first season on the job at Auburn in 2023.  The Tigers went 5-7 last year and while they are experienced with 17 returning starters, it's going to take them some time to learn the new systems on offense and defense under new coordinators.

I think this UMass offense can punch in a couple scores and that will be enough to cover this 35.5-point spread with a total of 51.5.  If UMass gets to 14 they will cover, and I think they can do that.  Auburn isn't scoring 49 points on this Don Brown defense, especially not with a running clock and the game being shortened.  The Tigers will call off the dogs in the 2nd half if need be for us to get this cover.

UMass is an impressive 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. SEC opponents.  Bet UMass Saturday.

15* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

Two of the hottest offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers have scored at least 5 runs in nine consecutive games and are scoring 5.7 runs per game on the season.  The Braves have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last eight games and are averaging 5.8 runs per game this season.

This total is too low for these two offenses.  Julio Urias is having a down year for the Dodgers with a 4.41 ERA in 20 starts with 21 homers allowed in 112 1/3 innings.  Max Fried has been solid for the Braves, but he has allowed 5 earned runs, 3 homers and 18 base runners in 11 2/3 innings to the lowly Giants in his last two starts.

The Dodgers are 10-0 OVER in their last 10 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Los Angeles is 11-0 OVER in its last 11 games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-115)

It's now or never for the Boston Red Sox.  They are 6.5 games out of the wild card and have a month to make it up.  It starts with their series against the lowly Kansas City Royals tonight.  The Royals are 1-10 in their last 11 games overall with seven losses by two runs or more.  This is the perfect opponent for the Red Sox to get back on track after facing the Astros for seven games and the Dodgers for three games during a brutal stretch.

The Red Sox have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind James Paxton, who is 7-4 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.257 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Paxton has never lost to the Royals, going 4-0 with a 1.51 ERA and 0.902 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in all eight starts, including firing 19 1/3 shutout innings with 29 K's in his last three.

The Red Sox will tee off on Jordan Lyles, who is one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  Lyles is 3-15 with a 6.39 ERA in 25 starts while allowing a whopping 33 homers.  That includes 0-2 with a 9.59 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 17 earned runs and 9 homers in 16 innings.  Lyles is also 2-3 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.788 WHIP in 10 career starts against Boston.  He has allowed 14 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Red Sox.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Astros -1.5 (+125)

The Houston Astros are 5-0 in their last five games overall while scoring outscoring opponents 52-17 in the process.  They are red hot at the plate and that will continue tonight against the lowly New York Yankees, who are 5-13 in their last 18 games overall and out of playoff contention.

The Astros have the rest advantage after having yesterday off while the Yankees played extra innings in Detroit on Thursday.  They also have the advantage on the mound behind Justin Verlander, who is 10-6 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 6-3 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.995 WHIP in 11 home starts.

Verlander has owned the Yankees over the past two seasons, going 3-1 with a 1.41 ERA in his last five starts against them while allowing just 5 earned runs in 32 innings.  He'll be opposed by Carlos Rodon, who is 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three road starts.  Rodon allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 2 2/3 innings of a 9-7 loss to the Astros in his lone start against them in 2023.

The Yankees are 1-7 in Rodon's eight starts this season and getting outscored by 2.3 runs per game.  Houston is 13-2 vs. starting pitchers that average less than 5 innings per start this season and outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs per game.  New York is 4-17 in its last 21 road games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Friday.

20* Louisville/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia Tech +7.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quietly went 4-3 down the stretch last year with interim head coach Brent Key.  They pulled upsets as 22-point dogs at Pitt, 3- point dogs to Duke, 3-point dogs at VA Tech and 21-point dogs at North Carolina.  This despite losing QB Jeff Sims after six games to injury.  The Yellow Jackets were playing down the stretch with two terrible backups quarterbacks in Zach Gibson and Zach Pyron.

Now Key has earned the full-time job here and has some chemistry with this team as his players absolutely love the alum.  He brings in one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in Haynes King from Texas A&M.  Injuries ended his season two years ago, and he was replaced midway through the season in what was a lost year for the Aggies last season.

Key welcomes back 12 starters and has added other impact transfers through the portal.  A few names to keep an eye on are RB Trey Cooley from Louisville, WR Christian Leary from Alabama and WR Dominick Blaylock from Georgia.  The latter two were buried on the depth chart and came here to get playing time and show off their talents.  

Defensively, Key brought in LB Andrew White from Texas A&M and CB Kenyatta Watson from Texas.  Seven starters return on defense, and four starters return along the offensive line while adding in Princeton transfer Connor Scaglione.  Having the O-Line be a strength will allow these new skill players to flourish.

Jeff Brohm has eventually been successful everywhere he has gone.  He turned around Western Kentucky and Purdue both, but it didn't happen overnight.  That will be the case here as it's going to take some time to build this Louisville program.  The offense won't be clicking in Week 1 learning the new schemes, and the defense loses 33.5 of the 50 sacks they had last year.  Louisville will be lucky to escape Atlanta with a win, let alone a cover.  Bet Georgia Tech Friday.

15* NL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Marlins/Nationals UNDER 8.5

The Miami Marlins have scored 3 runs or fewer in nine of their last 11 games overall and the UNDER is 9-2 in those 11 games.  The Washington Nationals have scored 3 runs or fewer in five of their last six games overall and the UNDER is 4-2 in those six games.  This total is too high for these two struggling offenses tonight.

Eury Perez is 5-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 15 starts this season and the new ace of this Miami staff.  Perez is 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.727 WHIP in two starts against the Nationals this season, allowing one earned run and 8 base runners in 11 innings.

Jake Irvin is quietly having a solid season with a 4.38 ERA in 20 starts.  Irvin has been very sharp of late, posting a 1.45 ERA in his last three starts while allowing just 3 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings.  He has posted a 1.64 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in two starts against the Marlins in 2023, allowing just 2 earned runs in 11 innings.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Perez's seven road starts this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Braves/Dodgers OVER 8

Two of the hottest offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers have scored at least 5 runs in eight consecutive games and are scoring 5.7 runs per game on the season.  The Braves have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last seven games and are averaging 5.8 runs per game this season.

This total is too low due to both Spencer Strider and Lance Lynn being sharp of late.  But both take a big step up in competition here, and I expect both to struggle.  Lynn has a 5.56 ERA and 1.381 WHIP on the season and had a bad outing against the Red Sox last time out, allowing 3 runs, 2 homers and 11 base runners in 6 innings.

Lynn allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers and 9 base runners in 5 1/3 innings of a 6-5 win over Strider and the Braves in his lone start against them this season on July 15th.  Strider allowed 4 runs, 2 earned, and 8 base runners in 6 innings in his lone start against the Dodgers this season.

Lynn is 18-8 OVER in all games this season.  Lynn is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 starts vs. good power teams averaging 1.25 or more homers per game.  The Dodgers are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Los Angeles is 10-0 OVER in its last 10 games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Padres OVER 8.5

Two gas cans go tonight for both the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres.  That should lead to 9-plus combined runs as we easily cash this OVER 8.5 ticket.

Sean Manaea is 1-2 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.809 WHIP in six starts for the Giants this season, allowing 19 earned runs, 5 homers and 41 base runners in 22 2/3 innings.  Pedro Avila is 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.801 WHIP in two starts for the Padres, allowing 6 earned runs and 15 base runners in 8 1/3 innings.  Manaea has allowed 9 earned runs and 17 base runners in 6 1/3 innings in his last two starts against San Diego.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Florida/Utah ESPN No-Brainer on Utah -6

A lot of the talk surrounding this game is with Utah QB Cam Rising.  He likely won't be announced in or out until right before game-time.  He did say he feels 'damn good' on Monday, and it would be an added bonus if he plays.  I'm here to tell you it's not going to matter either way.

Utah has one of the best head coaches in the country in Kyle Whittingham.  He has had all offseason to prepare for Florida, and great coaches have an even bigger advantage with more time to prepare.  This is a loaded Utah team with 16 returning starters including the top offensive and defensive lines in the Pac-12, and the top linebackers and defensive backs in the league.

As you can see, the defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that allowed 21.4 points per game last year.  The offense returns seven starters when you include Rising.  Backup Brandon Rose is questionable as well, possibly leaving it to third-string Bryson Barnes.  He got forced into action last year and played well, completing 64.9% of his passes for 430 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 116 yards and 5.8 per carry.  Whoever is under center will have the benefit of playing behind what Whittingham calls his most talented O-Line ever.

The drop off from Rising to Barnes wouldn't be as big as the drop off from Anthony Richardson to Graham Mertz at quarterback for Florida.  Richardson was the 4th pick in the draft last year and was a huge dual-threat, rushing for 6.3 per carry and 9 TD on ground.  Mertz was highly ranked out of high school but was a major disappointment in his four seasons at Wisconsin.  He had a 38-to-26 TD/INT ratio in his career there and consistently makes poor throws, while also not being a dual-threat.

Second-year head coach Billy Napier has his hands full this season with just 11 returning starters from a team that went 6-7 last year.  The offense is going to take a step back, and the defense is going to be poor again after allowing 28.8 points and 411 yards per game last season.  Only five starters return on defense, and the Gators lose each of their top five tacklers from last year.

Utah is a legit Pac-12 title contender and will be hungry for revenge after blowing the game in Florida last year in a 26-29 defeat.  Now the Utes get to host the Gators inside Rice-Eccles Stadium Thursday night.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the entire country, and that is amplified when playing a week night game.  

Utah is 26-2 SU at home over the past five seasons with an amazing 25 of those wins coming by 6 points or more, and 24 by 7 points or more.  Bet Utah Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks/Dodgers OVER 9.5

The OVER is 6-0 in Dodgers last six games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all six games.  They have scored 5 runs or more in seven consecutive games and are capable of covering this total on their own.  The Diamondbacks are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in eight of those 10 games.

Brandon Pfaadt is 1-6 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in 13 starts this season while allowing a whopping 15 homers in 67 innings.  He'll be opposed by Ryan Pepiot, who cannot be expected to go very deep in this game as the Dodgers are making it a bullpen game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Astros/Red Sox AL ANNIHILATOR on Boston +125

The Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the Houston Astros.  I like the value we are getting on the Red Sox as home underdogs to avoid the sweep in Game 3 today.

Kutter Crawford has been one of the more underrated starters in baseball this season.  He is 6-5 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 17 starts, including 1-0 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.766 WHIP in his last three.  Crawford allowed one earned run in 6 innings of a 2-1 victory over the Astros in his lone career start against them.

Framber Valdez went deep into his last start with a no-hitter through 7 innings but was unable to finish it due to poor control with 5 walks.  I could see him having a tired arm in this one and it really affecting him.  He had allowed 9 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his previous two starts prior to that near no-hitter against the lowly Tigers.

Boston is a very profitable 19-11 (+16.4 Units) as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season.  The Red Sox are 25-8 after playing four or more consecutive home games this season.  Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Brewers/Cubs UNDER 7

There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds blowing in from left today at Wrigley Field in Chicago.  That will help aid us in cashing this UNDER 7 ticket.  It worked yesterday in a 1-0 victory for the Cubs with 20 MPH winds blowing in from center.  It will be more of the same today with runs hard to come by.

Ace Brandon Woodruff goes for the Brewers today and is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.883 WHIP in six starts this season.  Kyle Hendricks goes for the Cubs and is 5-7 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 18 starts this season.

Hendricks is 10-8 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 32 career starts against Milwaukee.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 12 starts against the Brewers.  Woodruff has allowed one earned run or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts against the Cubs.

Milwaukee is 9-1 UNDER in road games vs. a NL starting pitcher with a 1.250 WHIP or better this season.  The Brewers are 17-3 UNDER in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control walking 1.75 or fewer batters per start this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +146

The Cleveland Guardians are trying to chase down the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central.  This is a huge game for them if they want any chance to catch them, and I love the value we are getting on the Guardians today.

Tanner Bibee is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 10-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.203 WHIP in 21 starts for the Guardians this season.  Sonny Gray hasn't had much success against Cleveland of late, going 0-2 with a 6.58 ERA in his last three starts against them while allowing 10 earned runs and 23 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Wednesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Phillies -160

The Philadelphia Phillies are on a tear at the plate right now during their 9-3 run over last 12 games.  They have scored at least 6 runs in nine of those 12 games.  They take on the hapless Los Angeles Angels, who are just going through the motions now after basically being eliminated from playoff contention.

The Angels are 7-19 in their last 26 games overall and have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 13 of their last 20 games overall.  They have also been held to 4 runs or fewer in 23 of their last 30 games overall and haven't topped 7 runs once during that stretch.  They are without Mike Trout right now and injuries have really decimated them.

The Phillies have a big advantage on the mound today behind Cristopher Sanchez, who is 2-3 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Reid Detmers, who is 3-10 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in 23 starts, 1-6 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in 10 road starts, and 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.637 WHIP in his last three starts.

Philadelphia is 18-4 in home games vs. left-handed starters this season and outscoring opponents by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  The Angels are 3-15 vs. NL teams that score 4.5 or more runs per game this season and getting outscored by 2.4 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Phillies Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +145

Alex Cobb and the San Francisco Giants have no business being this big of a favorite over Brandon Williamson and the Cincinnati Reds tonight.  This line should be much closer to even money, thus we'll take the value with the Reds to bounce back in Game 2 of this series.

Williamson is 4-3 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 13 starts, including 2 runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts.  Williamson held the Giants to 2 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone start against them in 2023.

Cobb is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs, 3 homers and 26 base runners in 15 innings.  Cobb allowed 5 earned runs and 13 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 5-1 loss to the Reds in his lone start against them in 2023.  

San Francisco is a dreadful 25-29 (-16.8 Units) in its last 54 games as a home favorite of -125 to -175.  Cincinnati is a very profitable 27-25 (+14 Units) as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season.  Bet the Reds Tuesday.

15* Brewers/Cubs NL Central ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -126

This feels like a must-win game for the Chicago Cubs if they want any shot of winning the NL Central.  They now trail the Brewers by 5 games for 1st place after dropping Game 1.  I expect them to bounce back in Game 2 with ace Justin Steele on the mound.

Steele is 14-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 24 starts this season for the Cubs.  Steele is 1-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in 10 career starts against Milwaukee.  The Brewers are hitting .221 and scoring 3.3 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season with huge righty/lefty splits.

Corbin Burnes allowed 5 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings to the White Sox and 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 innings to the Twins in two of his last three starts.  Burnes allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings of a 4-0 loss to the Cubs in his lone start against them in 2023.

The Cubs are 8-1 in Steele's nine night starts this season and outscoring opponents by 4.6 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Astros/Red Sox OVER 10

Two teams that are hot at the plate square off tonight insider hitter-friendly Fenway Park.  The OVER is 9-1 in Astros last 10 games overall and they have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last nine games.  That includes a ridiculous 39 runs in their last three games overall coming in.

The OVER is 12-0 in Red Sox last 12 games overall with 10 or more combined runs in 11 of those 12 games.  Boston has scored at least 4 runs in 11 of those 12 games and at least 6 runs in seven of them.

The hitters will have the advantage in this game having seen these starters in their last starts.  JP France allowed 10 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of a 17-1 loss to the Red Sox on August 24th.  Brayan Bello was much sharper in that game but still allowed 12 base runners in 7 innings and was fortunate to give up only one run.  He won't be so fortunate tonight as the Astros are blistering hot at the plate right now.

The OVER is 5-0 in five meetings between the Astros and Red Sox this season with 10 or more combined runs in all five, and 12 or more combined runs in four of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -121

The Texas Rangers are in a 3-way battle with the Mariners and Astros for first place in the AL West that will be a thrilling race the rest of the way.  They came up clutch last night with two runs in the 9th inning to beat the Mets 4-3.  That win stopped the bleeding, and now they should come back with a ton of confidence tonight.

I'll gladly back lefty Andrew Heaney, who is 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA in 25 starts this season.  Heaney has posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in two career starts against the Mets.  New York has huge righty/lefty splits this season and is hitting just .221 and scoring 3.5 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.

Conversely, the Rangers own southpaws hitting .275 and scoring 6.2 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.  They should crush washed-up lefty Jose Quintana, who allowed 5 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in his last start.  Quintana has allowed 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 22 base runners in 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Texas.

The Mets are 11-37 as underdogs this season.  Bet the Rangers Tuesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-113)

The Baltimore Orioles are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall and fighting to win the AL East.  They have scored at least 5 runs in nine of their last 10 games overall and will hang another big number on the hapless Chicago White Sox tonight to cover this Run Line.

The White Sox are simply going through the motions since selling at the deadline.  The White Sox are 11-23 in their last 34 games overall with nine of those wins coming against non-playoff contenders.  Now they face Dean Kremer, who is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in his last three starts.  Kremer pitched 6 shutout innings in a 7-0 home win over the Blue Jays in his last start.  Kremer fired 5 2/3 shutout innings in a 4-0 victory in his lone career starts against Chicago as well.

I'll gladly fade Jesse Scholtens, who is 0-3 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.486 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 13 earned runs in 15 innings.  The White Sox are 1-6 in Sholtens' seven starts this season.

The Orioles are 11-2 in Kremer's last 13 starts with nine wins by 2 runs or more.  Baltimore is 26-6 as a favorite of -150 or more this season and outscoring opponents by 2.3 runs per game.  The Orioles are 20-4 vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game this season and outscoring them by 2.3 runs per game.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+122)

The Philadelphia Phillies are on a tear at the plate right now during their 8-3 run over last 11 games.  They have scored at least 6 runs in eight of those 11 games.  Now they take on the hapless Los Angeles Angels, who are just going through the motions now after basically being eliminated from playoff contention.

The Angels are 7-18 in their last 25 games overall and have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 13 of their last 19 games overall.  They have also been held to 4 runs or fewer in 23 of their last 29 games overall and haven't topped 7 runs once during that stretch.  They are without Mike Trout right now and injuries have really decimated them.

The Phillies have a big advantage on the mound today behind Michael Lorenzen, who is 7-8 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.124 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Tyler Andrson, who is 5-4 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.546 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  Anderson has really been roughed up in his last two starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 6 innings of a 9-7 loss to the Phillies in his last start against them.

Philadelphia is 17-4 in home games vs. left-handed starters this season and outscoring opponents by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  The Angels are 3-14 vs. NL teams that score 4.5 or more runs per game this season and getting outscored by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Phillies on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-125)

The Seattle Mariners are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 11-1 in their last 12 games overall with eight wins by 2 runs or more.  They have scored 6 runs or more in nine of their last 13 games overall as well.  Now they take on the Oakland A's, who are 38-93 this season.

Bryan Woo has posted a 3.60 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in his last three starts and gets to face the A's for the first time this season, which works to his advantage.  He'll be opposed by Kyle Muller, who is 1-4 with a 7.79 ERA and 1.962 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 10.42 ERA and 2.143 WHIP in five road starts.  Muller allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 10 base runners in 5 innings of an 11-2 loss to the Mariners in his lone career start against them.

The Mariners are 7-0 against the A's in 2023.  They improve to 8-0 Monday with a win by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Monday.

20* Brewers/Cubs NL Central No-Brainer on Chicago -118

The Chicago Cubs trail the Milwaukee Brewers by 4 games in the NL Central.  This is a huge series for them to gain some ground, and I expect them to take Game 1 tonight.

Lefty Wade Miley goes for the Brewers tonight.  The Cubs are hitting .273 and scoring 5.6 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.  Miley allowed 4 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings of a 7-6 loss to the Cubs in his lone start against them this season.

Jameson Taillon has had a lot of success against the Brewers in his career.  He has posted a 3.75 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in 12 career starts against them.  The Brewers are hitting .230 and scoring just 4.1 runs per game on the road this season.

The Cubs are 25-6 in their last 31 home games after scoring 9 runs or more in consecutive games.  Taillon's teams are 25-7 in his 32 career starts vs. teams that average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game in the second half of the season.  Bet the Cubs Monday.

15* Astros/Red Sox AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9.5

Two teams that are hot at the plate square off tonight insider hitter-friendly Fenway Park.  The OVER is 8-1 in Astros last nine games overall and they have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last eight games.  That includes 26 runs in their last two games coming in.

The OVER is 11-0 in Red Sox last 11 games overall with 10 or more combined runs in 10 of those 11 games.  Boston has scored at least 4 runs in 10 of those 11 games and at least 6 runs in seven of them.

Christian Javier has posted a 4.52 ERA in 24 starts this season and a 5.33 ERA in 14 road starts while allowing 15 homers in 74 1/3 innings away from home.  Chris Sale has posteda. 4.68 ERA in 14 starts this season and a 5.14 ERA in his last three.  Neither starter can be trusted to make it out of the 5th inning in this one.

Houston is 15-1 OVER in Monday games this season.  The OVER is 16-7-1 in Javier's 24 starts this season, while the OVER is 8-4-2 in Sale's 14 starts.  The OVER is 9-1 in Sale's last 10 starts vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Yankees/Tigers AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

Two gas cans take the mound tonight in Game 1 of this series between the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers.  This total is too low for a game involving two of the worst starters in baseball.

I also expect the Tigers to tee off on Luis Severino, who has amazingly kept his spot in the rotation despite being one of the worst starters in baseball.  Severino is 3-7 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 0-5 with a 9.08 ERA and 2.103 WHIP in eight road starts.  The Tigers have scored at least 4 runs in nine of their last 11 games overall.

The Yankees have scored at least 4 runs in four of their last five games with the OVER going 4-1.  They should do a fair bit of damage on Reese Olson, who is 2-5 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 12 starts for the Tigers this season.

The OVER is 5-1 in Tigers last six games overall with 10 or more combined runs in five of those six games, all of which have come at home.  Detroit is 21-8 OVER in home games at night this season.  Detroit is 13-3 OVER in home games vs. a team witha. losing record this season.  The Tigers are 12-2 OVER in their last 12 home games vs. a starting pitcher that allows one or more homers per start.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Phillies -141

The Philadelphia Phillies are on a tear at the plate right now during their 7-3 run over last 10 games.  They have scored at least 6 runs in seven of those 10 games.  Now they take on the hapless Los Angeles Angels, who are just going through the motions now after basically being eliminated from playoff contention.

The Angels are 7-17 in their last 24 games overall and have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 13 of their last 18 games overall.  They have also been held to 4 runs or fewer in 22 of their last 28 games overall and haven't topped 7 runs once during that stretch.  They are without Mike Trout right now and injuries have really decimated them.

I'll gladly fade Lucas Giolito, who has been a disaster since getting traded to the Angels.  Giolito is 1-5 with a 7.06 ERA in his last seven starts while allowing 28 earned runs and 10 homers in 35 2/3 innings.  He is also 3-7 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.623 WHIP in 14 road starts this season.

Taijuan Walker has been at his best at home for the Phillies this season, going 6-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in 13 home starts.  Walker's teams are 12-1 in his last 13 home starts as a favorite of -125 to -175.  Walker's teams are 17-3 in his last 20 home starts with a total of 9 to 9.5 runs.  Giolito's teams are 4-18 in his last 22 starts as an underdog.  Bet the Phillies Monday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-135)

The Seattle Mariners are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall with eight wins by 2 runs or more.  They have scored 6 runs or more in nine of their last 12 games overall as well.  They'll be opposed by the Kansas City Royals, who are 2-9 in their last 11 games overall with six losses by 2 runs or more.

The Mariners are coming off a 15-2 win over the Royals yesterday.  It should be more of the same today with their big advantage on the mound.  Luis Castillo is 10-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 26 starts this season, including 6-3 with a 2.81 ERA and 0.948 WHIP in 14 home starts.

Alec Marsh is still in search of his first victory for the Royals this season.  He is 0-5 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.704 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 21 earned runs and 10 homers in 27 innings.  The Royals are 0-6 in Marsh's six starts with five losses by 3 runs or more.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +170

The Washington Nationals have quietly gone 23-11 in their last 34 games overall with 18 wins as underdogs.  That includes wins as +190, +190 and +185 underdogs in their last three games coming in.  The Miami Marlins have no business being this big of a favorite today considering they are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall while scoring a total of 13 runs in their last seven games overall for an average of 1.86 runs per game.

Trevor Williams will hold this cold-hitting Marlins lineup in check today.  He has a respectable 4.26 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in six career starts against Miami.  JT Chargois will be making his first start of the season for the Marlins and is no more than an opener as they will be making this a bullpen game.

The Nationals are 7-3 (+9.4 Units) in Williams' 10 starts when working on 5 or 6 days' rest this season.  The value on the Nationals is too good to pass up today.  Bet the Nationals Sunday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Rays -125

The New York Yankees are 2-11 in their last 13 games overall and dead in the water when it comes to the playoff picture.  They should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers given their current standing.  Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays have a lot to play for the rest of the way.

The Rays also have a big advantage on the mound today with the underrate Zack Littell, who is 2-3 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Carlos Rodon, who is 1-4 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 23 earned runs and 9 homers in 33 innings.  Rodon is 0-2 with a 9.65 ERA in two road starts.  He has never beaten the Rays, going 0-2 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.799 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Tampa Bay is 40-9 in its last 49 home games vs. a starting pitcher that averages less than 5 innings per start and outscoring opponents by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Rays Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Guardians/Blue Jays UNDER 9

The Cleveland Guardians have been held to 3 runs or fewer in eight of their last 11 games overall.  The Toronto Blue Jays have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 13 of their last 17 games overall.  Runs will be hard to come by for both struggling offenses against these two starting pitchers today.

Yusei Kikuch is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 9-4 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 5-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 11 home starts.  Kikuchi owns the Guardians with a 1.67 ERA and 0.815 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 21 innings in his last three starts against Cleveland.

No question Noah Syndergaard is having a rough year.  But one bright spot came in his last start against Toronto on August 10th when he held the Blue Jays to one earned run in 5 2/3 innings of a 4-3 victory.  Syndergaard is now 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.140 WHIP in three career starts against Toronto, allowing just 4 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings.

The UNDER is 30-15 in Blue Jays last 45 games overall.  Toronto is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games vs. poor power teams averaging 0.75 or fewer homers per game.  The UNDER is 5-1 in six meetings between the Guardians and Blue Jays this season with 7 or fewer combined runs in all 5 UNDERS.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -118

Javier Assad has quietly gone 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in two road starts.  The Cubs are 4-1 in Assad's five starts this season.

I'll gladly fade Bailey Falter, who is 0-6 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in four road starts while allowing 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 2/3 innings.  Falter allowed 4 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings in his lone career start against Chicago.

The Cubs are 8-1 against the Pirates in 2023.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

20* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida International +11

Florida International was one of the worst teams in college football last season.  They did a good job of getting to 4-8 with only 11 returning starters and a first-year head coach in Mike MacIntyre.  He is the king of turning programs around.

Indeed, MacIntyre went 1-11 in his first year at San Jose State and in his 3rd year got them to 11-2 and ranked inside the Top 25.  They went 4-8 in his first year at Colorado but in Year 4 they made the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Last year MacIntyre took over a Panthers team that had gone 0-8 in conference play the previous season.  They were a dog in all 11 FBS games and a double-digit dog in nine of them but pulled off three upsets, including against this same Louisiana Tech team.

Now the Panthers return 12 starters, move up 50 spots in experience rankings and are in Year 2 under MacIntyre and are familiar with the systems with both coordinators back.  Six of the top eight tacklers are back on what should be one of the most improved defenses in the country.  QB Grayson James returns as a nice dual-threat to lead the offense.

But this is more of a play against Louisiana Tech than it is a play on Florida International.  They wish they had Skip Holtz back at this point.  Sonny Cumbie had a disastrous first season in Ruston as the Bulldogs went 3-9 with their three wins coming against SF Austin, UTEP and Middle Tennessee.  Six of their nine losses came by double-digits, and they were upset by FIU and Charlotte to boot.

They have 12 returning starters but will be without their stud RB in Marquise Crosby for the opener.  He rushed for 918 yards and 9 TD last season while averaging 5.0 per carry.  Hank Bachmeier comes in from Boise State at QB, but he was a disaster for the Broncos last season and that team improved greatly once he was benched.

While the LA Tech offense will be respectable under Cumbie's guidance, he just isn't a defensive-minded head coach.  That was evident last year with the Bulldogs allowing 37.9 points per game and 469 yards per game.  They gave up 6.1 yards per carry on the ground.  It's hard to expect much improvement considering they return just 4 starters on defense and lose eight of their top 10 tacklers.

This game will likely be decided by single-digits either way, so there's tremendous value in 'buying low' on the Panthers after already upsetting the Bulldogs at home as 6-point dogs last year.  Bet Florida International Saturday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -128

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated to bounce back from a one-run loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates yesterday.  I like their chances of getting back on track today with their big advantage on the mound.

Javier Assad has quietly gone 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in two road starts.  The Cubs are 4-1 in Assad's five starts this season.

Colin Selby will be an opener for the Pirates today before giving way to Osvaldo Bido.  Bido is 2-4 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.398 WHIP in 44 1/3 innings this season.  The Cubs have the advantage at the plate and in the bullpen as well.

The Cubs are 7-1 against the Pirates in 2023.  Bet the Cubs Saturday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on A's/White Sox OVER 9

The A's and White Sox combined for 13 runs in Game 1 and 16 runs in Game 2.  It should be more of the same with these two starting pitchers going tonight.

Touki Toussaint is 1-6 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.728 WHIP In nine starts this season.  Toussaint is 0-2 with a 9.69 ERA and 2.308 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs, 14 walks and 4 homers in 13 innings.

JP Sears is 2-10 with a 4.54 ERA in 25 starts this season.  His big problem has been giving up the long ball as he has already allowed 28 homers in 2023.  Sears allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 2 innings of a 14-2 loss to the White Sox in his lone career start against them.

Chicago is 24-9 OVER as a favorite of -150 or less this season.  Oakland is 38-23 OVER in road games this season.  Chicago is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games vs. bad teams that are outscored by 1.0 or more runs per game.  The OVER is 5-0 in five meetings between the A's and White Sox this season with 11 or more combined runs in all five.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NFLX Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Baltimore Ravens +2

No analysis for preseason.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UTEP/Jacksonville State OVER 53.5

Both UTEP and Jacksonville State are pretty loaded on offense but suspect on defense.  As a result, I am siding with the OVER in the season opener between two teams that aren't familiar with one another at all.

Jacksonville State makes the move from FCS to FBS this season.  Rich Rodriquez is in his second season here and guided the Gamecocks to a 9-2 record last season.  The offense was electric putting up 36.2 points per game while the defense gave up 390 yards per game.

Rodriquez has nine returning starters on offense including electric QB Zion Webb, who is a dual-threat who rushed for 647 yards and 13 touchdowns last year.  He has each of his top two receivers back, leading rusher Malik Jackson (818 yards, 8 TD, 7.1 YPC) and four starters on the offensive line.  They defense has seven starters back but is undersized for the FBS level, especially up front.

UPTE had eight starters back on an offense that put up 385 yards per game last season.  That includes QB Gavin Gardison, who threw for 2,044 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Leading receiver Tyrin Smith is back after 712 receptions for 1,039 yards and 7 touchdowns last year.  Deion Hankins rushed for 701 yards and averaged 5.0 per carry last season and returns.  Four starters and 122 career starts return along the offensive line.

UTEP gave up 27.0 points per game last season and while seven starters return, the Miners lose five of their top seven tacklers from a year ago.  That includes their two best edge rushers in Cal Wallerstedt (95 tackles, 8 sacks) and Jadrian Taylor (9.5 sacks).  They will miss these two while trying to wrangle in Webb of Jacksonville State.

The Gamecocks and their opponents combined for at least 56 points in eight of their 11 games last season.  Dana Dimel is 15-5 OVER in conference road games as the coach of UTEP.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-113)

The Seattle Mariners are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with seven wins by 2 runs or more.  They have scored 6 runs or more in eight of their last 11 games overall as well.  They'll be opposed by the Kansas City Royals, who are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall with five losses by 2 runs or more.

The Mariners have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Logan Gilbert, who is 11-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.074 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Jordan Lyles, who is 3-14 with a 6.07 ERA in 24 starts thsi season, including 2-8 with a 6.90 ERA in 13 road starts.  Lyles is 2-5 with a 6.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 11 career starts against Seattle.  He allowed 6 earned runs and 4 homers in 5 innings of a 10-8 loss to the Mariners in his lone start against them this season.

The Royals are 3-21 in Lyles' 24 starts this season.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +182

The Washington Nationals have quietly gone 22-11 in their last 331 games overall with 17 wins as underdogs.  That includes wins as +190 and +190 underdogs in their last two games coming in.  The Miami Marlins have no business being this big of a favorite today considering they are 2-7 in their last nine games overall while scoring a total of 11 runs in their last six games overall for an average of 1.8 runs per game.

Jake Irvin comes in pitching well for the Nationals as he fired 6 shutout innings against the Phillies in his last start.  Irvin hs allowed 4 earned runs or fewer in 16 consecutive starts, including 3 earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts.  

Eury Perez has not been sharp of late for the Marlins, going 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 21 innings.  The value on the Nationals is too good to pass up today.  Bet the Nationals Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Guardians/Blue Jays UNDER 8.5

The Cleveland Guardians have been held to 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last 10 games overall.  The Toronto Blue Jays have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 13 of their last 16 games overall.  Runs will be hard to come by for both struggling offenses against these two starting pitchers tonight.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing just 4 earned runs and one homer in 19 innings.  He'll be opposed by Logan Allen, who is 6-6 with a 3.31 ERA in 19 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.85 ERA in nine road starts.  Ryu is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four career starts against Cleveland, while Allen is 0-1 with a 1.80 ERA in one career start against Toronto.

The UNDER is 30-14 in Blue Jays last 44 games overall.  Toronto is 11-0 UNDER in its last 11 games vs. poor power teams averaging 0.75 or fewer homers per game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in five meetings between these teams in 2023 with 1, 1, 4 and 7 and 7 combined runs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Seahawks/Packers NFLX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 40

No analysis for preseason.

25* NFLX TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bills/Bears UNDER 39

No analysis for preseason.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Phillies -140

The Philadelphia Phillies have a lot more to play for than the St. Louis Cardinals and a big advantage on the mound tonight.  That's why I think we are getting the Phillies at a great value even at -140 at home tonight.

Christopher Sanchez is one of the more underrated starters in baseball with a 3.36 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Miles Mikolas, who is 6-9 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.300 WHIP in 27 starts for the Cardinals this season.  Mikolas has allowed 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings for a 9.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Mets and A's.

St. Louis is 3-15 in Friday games this season.  Bet the Phillies Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Cubs -108

The Chicago Cubs have a lot to play for right now trying to chase down the Brewers in the NL Central or getting a wild card.  The Pittsburgh Pirates have nothing to play for right now at 13 games below .500.  Given the motivational advantage, we are getting the Cubs at a tremendous value at basically even money today.

Kyle Hendricks has done his best work on the road this season at 3-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 0.974 WHIP In eight starts away from home.  Hendricks is 2-0 with a 0.68 ERA in his last two starts against the Pirates, allowing just one earned run and 7 base runners in 13 1/3 innings.

Mitch Keller is 10-8 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.285 WHIP in 26 starts for the Pirates this season.  Keller is 1-4 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in eight career starts against the Cubs.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 18 base runners in 10 innings in his last two starts against Chicago.  Bet the Cubs Friday.

20* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Rays -128

The New York Yankees are 1-10 in their last 11 games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer in seven of the 10 losses.  They consistently get too much respect from the books despite the fact that they are dead in the water right now.  Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays have gone 14-7 in their last 21 games overall and are absolutely raking at the plate right now.  They have scored 5 runs or more in each of their last seven games.

Zach Eflin is 13-7 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 24 starts for the Rays this season, including 10-3 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.931 WHIP in 14 home starts.  Eflin has never lost to the Yankees, going 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in four career starts against them.  His teams are 4-0 in those four starts.

Gerrit Cole is struggling to stay interested of late, going 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.353 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 17 innings.  Cole is 1-0 with a 4.76 ERA in his last three starts against the Rays, allowing 9 earned runs and 5 homers in 17 innings.

Eflin's teams are 30-10 in his last 40 home starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The Yankees are 2-8 (-11.2 Units) in Cole's last 10 August starts.  Bet the Rays Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Cincinnati Reds +152

The Cincinnati Reds just swept the Angels last series and head into this series with the Arizona Diamondbacks with momentum.  Most days off are good, but the Diamondbacks probably didn't want one after going through a 7-1 stretch over their past eight games.  That could halt their momentum here.

I also think the Diamondbacks are getting too much respect after that 7-1 stretch as this line should be much closer to even money.  I'll gladly take the value on the Reds and the underrated Brandon Williamson, who is 4-3 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.257 WHIP in 17 starts this season.  Williamson has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts overall.  He held the Diamondbacks to one run and 4 base runners in 6 innings of a 4-2 victory over them on July 22nd.

Merrill Kelly is getting too much respect from the books here.  He is 3-4 with a 3.55 ERA in 11 home starts this season, and the Diamondbacks are 4-7 (-3.6 Units) in his 11 home starts.  Kelly has allowed 4 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  Kelly gave up 5 earned runs in 6 innings of a 5-4 loss to the Reds in his last start against them.

Cincinnati is a very profitable 27-23 (+16.0 Units) as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season.  The Reds are 11-3 (+12 Units) in road games after allowing 4 runs or less in three consecutive games this season.  Cincinnati is 26-11 following two or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet the Reds Thursday.

15* Steelers/Falcons NFLX ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -4.5

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +185

The Yankees cannot be this big of a favorite against anyone right now.  They are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer in seven of the nine losses.  Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have quietly gone 20-11 in their last 31 games overall with 15 wins as underdogs.

Pat Corbin has quietly gone 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in his last three starts for the Nationals and is going through his best stretch of the season.  Corbin has posted a 2.33 ERA and 0.569 WHIP in three career starts against the Yankees.

Michael King will be making just his second start of the season as the Yankees are likely to make this a bullpen game.  He managed just two innings in his lone previous start against the Marlins.  This number is simply way out of whack all things considered.  Bet the Nationals Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Cincinnati Reds +170 (Game 2)

The Cincinnati Reds should not be underdogs to the Los Angeles Angels today.  The Reds are still fighting for a playoff spot while the Angels are pretty much dead in the water.  This line for Game 2 of this double-header is way out of whack given those circumstances.

Brett Kennedy has been solid in two starts for the Reds this season going 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.100 WHIP.  Reid Detmers has no business being this big of a favorite for the Angels.  He is 3-9 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.365 WHIP in 22 starts this season. Detmers has been awful of late, going 1-4 with a 7.99 ERA in his last seven starts while allowing 29 earned runs and 9 homers in 32 2/3 innings.

Cincinnati is 9-1 vs. AL West opponents this season.  The Reds are a very profitable 25-23 (+13.3 Units as underdogs of +125 to +175 this season.  The Angels are a woeful 12-17 (-11.7 Units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  Bet the Reds in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Nationals/Yankees Interleague No-Brainer on Washington +128

The Yankees cannot be this big of a favorite against anyone right now.  They are 0-9 in their last nine games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer in seven of the nine losses.  Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have quietly gone 20-10 in their last 30 games overall with 15 wins as underdogs.

The Nationals have a big advantage on the mound tongiht with Mackenzie Gore, who has posted a 4.38 ERA in 24 starts this season.  Gore fired 6 1/3 shutout innings in his last start against Boston.

The Nationals will stay hot at the plate against Luis Severino, who has been one of the worst starters in all of baseball this season.  Severino is 2-7 with a 7.67 ERA and 1.842 WHIP in 14 starts this season, allowing 56 earned runs and 19 homers in 65 2/3 innings.  Severino is 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.382 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 17 earned runs and 5 homers in 11 1/3 innings.  Bet the Nationals Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-133)

The Tampa Bay Rays are red hot right now going 7-3 in their last 10 games overall while scoring at least 6 runs in eight of those 10 games.  They have scored a total of 30 runs in their last two games coming in.  The Colorado Rockies are 3-9 in their last 12 games overall with each of their last seven losses coming by 2 runs or more.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound today behind Aaron Civale, who is 6-3 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.115 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Austin Gomber, who is 9-9 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.473 WHIP in 25 starts this season.

Colorado is 2-26 as an underdog of +200 or higher this season and getting outscored by 4.0 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 1-17 in road games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game and getting outscored by 4.5 runs per game in this spot.  Tampa Bay is 58-19 in its last 77 games as a home favorite of -150 or more.  Civale's teams are 15-1 in his last 16 starts vs. teams that are outscored by 1.0 or more runs per game on the season and outscoring opponents by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Rays on the the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +150 (Game 1)

The Cincinnati Reds should not be underdogs to the Los Angeles Angels today.  The Reds are still fighting for a playoff spot while the Angels are pretty much dead in the water.  This line for Game 1 of this double-header is way out of whack given those circumstances.

Andrew Abbott is 8-3 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in 14 starts for the Reds this season.  The Reds are 11-3 (+8.8 Units) in those 14 starts.  His numbers rival that of Shohei Ohtani, who is 10-5 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in 22 starts for the Angels this season.  This line should be much closer to even money even with Ohtani starting, but he consistently gets too much respect from the books.

Cincinnati is 9-1 vs. AL West opponents this season.  The Reds are a very profitable 25-23 (+13.3 Units as underdogs of +125 to +175 this season.  The Angels are a woeful 12-17 (-11.7 Units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.  Los Angeles is 4-18 in its last 22 games vs. NL starting pitchers with a 1.250 WHIP or better.  Bet the Reds in Game 1 Wednesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-130)

The Seattle Mariners are one of the hottest teams in baseball and within striking distance now of winning the AL West.  They are 16-3 in their last 19 games overall with 13 wins by 2 runs or more, and they have scored at least 6 runs in eight of their last nine games.

The Chicago White Sox sold at the deadline and are just going through the motions at this point.  They are 12-28 in their last 40 games overall with their last four losses coming by 3, 12, 6 and 13 runs.  They have been outscored 20-5 in two games against the Mariners to open this series.

Seattle has a big advantage on the mound today behind George Kirby, who is 10-8 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  Kirby is 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA in his last four starts while allowing just 6 earned runs in 27 innings.

The Mariners will stay hot at the plate against Michael Kopech, who is 5-11 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 23 starts this season while allowing 28 homers and 76 walks in 116 innings.  Kopech has allowed 13 earned runs, 4 homers and 9 walks in 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  He has posted a 5.63 ERA and 2.250 WHIP in two career starts against Seattle as well.  

The Mariners are 8-0 in their last eight games overall.  The White Sox are 1-10 in Kopech's last 11 starts vs. AL West opponents.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Reds +133

The Cincinnati Reds should not be underdogs to the Los Angeles Angels tonight.  The Reds are still fighting for a playoff spot while the Angels are pretty much dead in the water.  I also believe the Reds have the advantage on the mound tonight.

Graham Ashcraft has quietly gone 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA in his last nine starts while allowing just 14 earned runs in 58 innings.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in nine consecutive starts now.

Lucas Giolito is 7-9 with a 4.44 ERA in 25 starts this season.  He has been a disaster since getting traded to the Angels, going 1-4 with an 8.19 ERA in his last six starts while allowing 28 earned runs and 9 homers in 29 2/3 innings.

Cincinnati is 8-1 vs. AL West opponents this season.  The Reds are 10-6 (+11.8 Units) in Ashcraft's last 16 starts as a road underdog.  Giolito's teams are 21-34 (-18.3 Units) in his last 55 starts.  Bet the Reds Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Mariners/White Sox OVER 8.5

The Seattle Mariners are one of the hottest teams in baseball and within striking distance now of winning the AL West.  They are 15-3 in their last 18 games overall with 12 wins by 2 runs or more, and they have scored at least 6 runs in seven of their last eight games.

The Mariners scored 14 runs against the White Sox yesterday and are capable of covering this total on their own again tonight.  Mike Clevinger is 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in three career starts against Seattle, allowing 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 17 innings.

The White Sox should get their bats going against one of the weak links in Seattle's rotation tonight.  Bryan Woo is 1-3 with a 4.75 ERA in 11 starts this season, allowing 29 earned runs and 8 homers in 55 innings.  Woo gave up two homers in his lone start against the White Sox this season.

Seattle is 18-5 OVER in its last 23 August road games.  Chicago is 20-9 OVER following two or more consecutive overs this season.  The OVER is 7-1 in Mariners last eight games overall with 10 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games.  The OVER is 4-0 in White Sox last four games overall with 15 or more combined runs in all four games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 17-2 in their last 19 games overall with 14 wins by two runs or more.  They are the hottest team in baseball right now.  They take on a Cleveland Guardians team that is 7-15 in their last 22 games overall with 11 losses by two runs or more.  The Guardians have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 19 of those 22 games.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Bobby Miller, who is 7-2 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  Miller has done his best work on the road going 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in seven road starts while allowing just 9 earned runs and one homer in 37 innings.  Miller is 1-0 with a 1.15 ERA in his last three starts as well.

Noah Syndergaard has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He is 2-6 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.448 WHIP in 16 starts while allowing 56 earned runs and 18 homers in 16 innings.  Syndergaard is 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 6 homers in 16 innings.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +165

The Yankees cannot be this big of a favorite against anyone right now.  They are 0-8 in their last eight games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer in six of the eight losses.  Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have quietly gone 19-10 in their last 29 games overall with 14 wins as underdogs.

Josiah Gray has been at this best on the road this season at 4-4 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 starts away from home while allowing only 25 earned runs and 7 homers in 79 2/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Carlos Rodon, who is 1-4 with a 7.33 ERA and 1.519 WHIP in six starts for the Yankees this season, allowing 22 earned runs, 18 walks and 8 homers in 27 innings.  Bet the Nationals Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-115)

The Tampa Bay Rays are red hot right now going 6-3 in their last nine games overall while scoring at least 6 runs in seven of those nine games.  The Colorado Rockies are 3-8 in their last 11 games overall while being held to one run three times.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound today behind Zack Littell, who is 2-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Ty Blach, who is no more than a fill in starter for the Rockies.  Blach is 0-1 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 3 homers in 15 2/3 innings.  Blach is 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.889 WHIP in two career starts against Tampa Bay, allowing 9 earned runs and 17 base runners in 9 innings.

Colorado is 2-25 as an underdog of +200 or higher this season and getting outscored by 3.9 runs per game in this spot.  Tampa Bay is 57-19 in its last 76 games as a home favorite of -150 or more.  Bet the Rays on the the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-115)

The Seattle Mariners are one of the hottest teams in baseball and within striking distance now of winning the AL West.  They are 14-3 in their last 17 games overall with 11 wins by 2 runs or more, and they have scored at least 6 runs in six of their last seven games.

Now they get to take on one of the coldest teams in baseball in the Chicago White Sox, who are 8-18 in their last 26 games overall with 13 losses by two runs or more.  The Mariners will stay hot at the plate against Touki Toussaint, who is 1-5 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.619 WHIP in eight starts this season with 29 walks in 37 2/3 innings.

Luis Castillo is 9-7 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.058 WHIP in 25 starts for the Mariners this season.  Castillo has posted a 2.92 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in two career starts against the White Sox.  Toussaint allowed 4 earned runs and 7 base runners in 2 2/3 innings of an 11-7 loss to the Mariners in his lone career start against them.

Chicago is 4-18 following five or more consecutive road games this season and getting outscored by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  Seattle is 16-4 in its last 20 games following a one-run win over a division opponent.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Monday.

15* Ravens/Commanders NFLX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 38

No analysis for preseason.

15* Phillies/Nationals ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

The Philadelphia Phillies have scored 12, 7 and 9 runs in their last three games, respectively.  They are fully capable of covering this total on their own against the Nationals.  But I expect them to get some help from a Nationals lineup that has scored 3 runs or mroe in eight consecutive games, including 8 runs or more four times.

Trevor Williams is 0-2 with an 11.08 ERA and 2.154 WHIP in his last three starts to fall to 5-7 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.521 WHIP in 24 starts this season while allowing a whopping 28 homers, including 7 homers in his last three starts.  Williams is 1-4 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in seven career starts against Philadelphia.  He just faced the Phillies on August 8th and allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 2/3 innings of an 8-4 defeat.

Zack Wheeler has solid numbers this season with a 3.56 ERA in 24 starts.  However, he cannot seem to figure out the Nationals.  Wheeler has allowed 3 earned runs or more in seven of his last nine starts against Washington.  He has allowed 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them for an 8.59 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-115)

The Baltimore Orioles are motivated to win the AL East with a lot to play for right now.  The Oakland A's are 2-9 in their last 11 games overall to fall to 34-89 on the season.  The Orioles won 9-4 in Game 1 and 7-2 in Game 2, and it should be more of the same in Game 3 today.

Kyle Bradish is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 7-6 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by JP Sears, who is 2-9 with a 4.20 ERA in 24 starts this season while allowing a whopping 26 homers in 130 2/3 innings.  That includes 0-4 with a 4.75 ERA in 10 home starts while allowing 14 homers in 55 innings.

Oakland is 8-44 vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or fewer runs per game this season and getting outscored by 3.5 runs per game in this spot.  The Orioles are 9-0 in Bradish's last nine starts vs. AL West opponents and outscoring opponents by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Baltimore is 12-1 in its last 13 games as a road favorite of -125 or more and outscoring opponents by 2.5 runs per game.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -1.5 (+103)

The Texas Rangers will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the Milwaukee Brewers.  They have lost three straight overall and have only lost four straight once all season.  They have been a very resilient team, and I like their chances of bouncing back with a blowout victory today due to their massive advantage on the mound.

Max Scherzer is back motivated after getting traded to the Rangers.  He is 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA in his last four starts while allowing ust 5 earned runs in 27 innings with 33 K's.  The Rangers have won each of his last four starts by 2 runs or more while outscoring the opposition 28-5 in the process.

Adrian Houser is 4-4 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.468 WHIP in 15 starts for the Brewers this season, including 2-3 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in eight road starts.  He is 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in five interleague starts as well.  Houser has allowed at least 3 earned runs in five of his last six starts coming in.  Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Royals/Cubs OVER 9

Two gas cans go today inside hitter-friendly Wrigley Field facing two hot lineups.  The end result should be 10-plus combined runs and easily cashing this OVER 9 ticket.

Jordan Lyles is 3-13 with a 6.17 ERA in 23 starts this season while allowing a whopping 28 homers already.  He is 2-7 with a 7.19 ERA in 12 road starts as well.  Lyles has allowed 16 earned runs and 5 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Cubs for a 12.34 ERA.

Kyle Hendricks has been at his worst at home this season at 1-4 with a 5.36 ERA in eight starts while allowing 25 earned runs and 7 homers in 42 innings.  Hendricks is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

The Royals have scored at least 4 runs in eight consecutive games.  The Cubs have scored at least 3 runs in nine consecutive games.  Chicago is a perfect 8-0 OVER in Sunday home games this season.  The OVER is 14-3 in Hendricks' last 17 starts as a favorite.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +100

Logan Allen is 6-5 with a 3.33 ERA in 18 starts for the Guardians this season, including 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his last three.  He should shut down a Detroit lineup that has been held to 4 runs or fewer in seven of its last nine games overall.  Getting the Guardians as home underdogs is a gift today.

Cleveland is 26-14 in its last 40 games following a one-run loss.  The Guardians are 24-13 in their last 37 games when revenging a one-run loss.  They have been very resilient and still have a lot to play for trying to chase down the Twins in the AL Central.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-110)

The Baltimore Orioles are motivated to win the AL East with a lot to play for right now.  The Oakland A's are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall to fall to 34-88 on the season.  The Orioles won 9-4 in Game 1 of this series yesterday, and it should be more of the same today.

Cole Irvin is going through his best stretch of the season for the Orioles right now.  He is 0-0 with a 1.10 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 2 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.

Ken Waldichuk is one of the many gas cans for the A's.  He is 1-4 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.682 WHIP in 16 starts this season while allowing 50 earned runs and 15 homers in 71 1/3 innings.  The Orioles will hang a big number on him tonight.  They score 5.4 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.

Oakland is 8-43 vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or fewer runs per game this season and getting outscored by 3.5 runs per game in this spot.  Baltimore is 21-5 as a favorite of -150 or more this season.  Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Saturday.

25* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +4.5

No analysis for preseason.

15* NFLX Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +8

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -122

The Texas Rangers are 12-4 in their last 16 games overall and trying to win the AL West.  The Milwaukee Brewers have lost three of their last four while scoring a total of 3 runs in the three losses.  They can't get their bats going consistently, and they won't today either.

Dane Dunning is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He is 7-4 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.202 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 5 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings with 29 K's.

Freddy Peralta has always had big home/road splits, and that's the case again this season.  Peralta is 4-4 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.359 WHIP in 10 road starts this season.  He'll now be up against a potent Rangers lineup that is hitting .281 and scoring 6.2 runs per game at home this season.  Bet the Rangers Saturday.

15* NFLX Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Lions +4

No analysis for preseason.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -129

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball right now.  They have won 11 consecutive games and are 15-1 in their last 16 games overall.  They are red hot at the plate scoring at least 5 runs in 24 of their last 37 games overall.

The Miami Marlins are 10-20 in their last 30 games overall and feeling the pressure of trying to make a wild card spot.  Sandy Alcantara continues to get too much respect from the books.  He is 5-10 with a 4.15 ERA in 24 starts this season, including 3-6 with a 4.56 ERA in 13 road starts.

Alcantara cannot figure out the Dodgers, going 1-3 with a 9.39 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He'll be opposed by Tony Gonsolin, who is 8-4 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in his last three starts.  Gonsolin pitched 5 1/3 shutout innings in his lone career start against Miami.  Bet the Dodgers Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -102

The Los Angeles Angels are 4-11 in their last 15 games overall to fall to 60-62 on the season and out of playoff contention.  The Tampa Bay Rays are still fighting to win the AL East and to make the playoffs.  I'll gladly side with the team with more to play for tonight.

That's especially the case when we are getting the Rays at basically even money against Tyler Anderson, who is 5-4 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in 20 starts for the Angels this season.  Anderson allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings to the Astros in a 11-3 defeat in his last start.

Erasmo Ramirez is 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.994 WHIP in nine career starts against the Angels.  Bet the Rays Friday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Rangers -119

The Texas Rangers are 12-3 in their last 15 games overall and trying to win the AL West.  The Milwaukee Brewers have lost three consecutive games while scoring a total of 3 runs in the three losses.  They can't get their bats going, and they won't tonight, either.

Now they have to face lefty Andrew Heaney, who is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts for the Rangers.  The Brewers are hitting .216 and scoring 3.2 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season and have one of the biggest lefty/righty splits in all of baseball.

The Rangers are hitting .282 and scoring 6.2 runs per game at home this season.  They can get their bats going against anyone, including Brandon Woodruff who has great numbers this season, but who is also getting too much respect from the books tonight.

The Rangers have the rest advantage after having yesterday off while the Brewers were swept in Los Angeles last night.  Bet the Rangers Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105)

The Atlanta Braves have a big advantage on the mound tonight.  Spencer Strider is 13-4 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in 24 starts this season with a whopping 217 K's in 139 1/3 innings.  He faced a terrible Giants lineup that has scored 3 runs or fewer in six of their last seven games overall.

Alex Cobb is 0-1 with an 8.05 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 14 earned runs and 6 homers in 15 2/3 innings.  Cobb is 2-2 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.557 WHIP in 12 road starts this season.  Now he faces a Braves potent lineup that hits .279 and scores 6.0 runs per game at home this season.

Atlanta is 26-7 vs. a NL team with a .315 OBP or worse this season and outscoring opponents by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Friday.

20* Panthers/Giants NFLX No-Brainer on Carolina +3

No analysis for preseason.

20* Brewers/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball right now.  They have won 10 consecutive games and are 14-1 in their last 15 games overall.  They are red hot at the plate scoring at least 5 runs in 24 of their last 36 games overall.  They are scoring 5.7 runs per game overall and 5.9 runs per game vs. right-handed starters.

The Milwaukee Brewers have the biggest righty/lefty hitting splits in all of baseball.  They are terrible against left-handed starters, but they are scoring 4.7 runs per game vs. right-handed starters.  I think they can get to righty Lance Lynn, who is 9-9 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in 24 starts this season while allowing 32 homers.

I know the Dodgers can get to Corbin Burnes, who allowed 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 2/3 innings to the White Sox in his last start.  Burnes is 1-2 with a 10.34 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in four career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 15 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 17-7 in Lynn's 24 starts this season.  The OVER is 18-6 in Brewers last 24 road games following two or more consecutive losses.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Browns/Eagles NFLX No-Brainer on Cleveland +3.5

No analysis for preseason.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball right now.  They have won nine consecutive games and are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall with 11 wins by two runs or more.  I'll gladly back them on the Run Line tonight with the big advantage they have on the mound over the Milwaukee Brewers.

Clayton Kershaw is 10-4 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.027 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.786 WHIP in seven home starts.  Kershaw is 9-6 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in 20 career starts against the Brewers, who are hitting .219 and scoring just 3.2 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.

Kershaw squared off against Wade Miley in his lone start against the Brewers this season.  He held them to one run in 7 innings of an 8-1 victory.  Meanwhile, Miley allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings in the 8-1 defeat.  Miley is now 0-2 with a 14.63 ERA in his last two starts against the Dodgers, allowing 13 earned runs and 6 homers in 8 innings.

The Dodgers are 35-7 in the month of August over the last two seasons and outscoring opponents by 3.4 runs per game.  Los Angeles is 27-4 in its last 31 home games following five or more consecutive wins.  Kershaw's teams are 41-9 in his last 50 starts vs. a NL team with a .245 batting average or worese in the second half of the season.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Angels/Rangers OVER 9

The Texas Rangers are absolutely rolling right now going 12-2 in their last 14 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in 10 of those 14 games.  They scored 12 runs in Game 1 and 7 runs in Game 2 of this series.  They hit .285 and score 6.3 runs per game at home this season and are fully capable of covering this 9-run total on their own.

Now they get to face gas can Reid Detmers, who is 2-9 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 0-6 with a 6.70 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in nine road starts.  Detmers has really struggled in his last two starts allowing 14 earned runs, 5 homers and 21 base runners in 6 1/3 innings to the Astros and Mariners.

Jon Gray is 2-0 in spite of a 4.67 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 9 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings.  Gray has allowed 9 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Angels.  Detmers is 1-2 with a 4.75 ERA in seven career starts against the Rangers.

Texas is 16-3 OVER in home games after winning two of their last three games this season.  The Angels are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games after scoring 3 runs or less in four consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Yankees/Braves OVER 10

The Atlanta Braves have scored at least 5 runs in 14 of their last 15 games overall.  The OVER is 9-3 in their last 12 games overall.  They now lead the majors hitting .275 and scoring 5.9 runs per game this season, including .281 and 6.1 runs per game at home.  The New York Yankees have scored 7 runs or more in four of their last nine games overall.

The Braves are capable of covering this total on their own.  They have scored a total of 49 runs in their last five games for an average of 9.8 runs per game.  The Yankees can get to Charlie Morton, who is 11-10 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.461 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in his last three starts.

The OVER is 11-2 in Atlanta's 13 games following a shutout win this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Brewers/Dodgers OVER 9

The OVER is 16-9 in Dodgers last 25 games overall.  They are red hot at the plate and are now scoring 5.7 runs per game overall and 5.9 runs per game against right-handed starters.  The OVER is 5-1 in Brewers last six games overall and they are heating up at the plate, scoring a total of 39 runs in their last six games for an average of 6.5 runs per game.

The Dodgers will hang a big number on Adrian Houser, who is 4-3 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.507 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.566 WHIP in seven road starts.  Houser allowed 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 2 1/3 innings in his lone career start against the Dodgers, which resulted in a 12-6 defeat and 18 combined runs.

Bobby Miller has been at his worst at home for the Dodgers with a 5.84 ERA and 1.330 WHIP in six home starts.  There are expected to be double-digit winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles tonight that will help aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Rangers -1.5 (+120)

The Texas Rangers are absolutely rolling right now going 11-2 in their last 13 games overall with nine wins by 2 runs or more.  That includes their 12-0 shutout victory over the Angels in Game 1 of this series yesterday.  The Angels are now 3-10 in their last 13 games overall with eight of those losses coming by 2 runs or more, including their last four losses by 5 runs or more.

Lucas Giolito has been a major disappointment since being traded to the Angels.  He is 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 15 earned runs and 5 homers in 15 innings.  Giolito is now 3-6 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.634 WHIP in 13 road starts this season, allowing 17 homers in 67 1/3 innings away from home.

Jordan Montgomery has a 3.38 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in 23 starts this season and has been solid since getting traded to Texas.  Montgomery is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in two career starts against the Angels.  The Rangers have a big advantage on the mound in this one.

Giolito's teams are 4-17 in his last 21 starts as an underdog and getting outscored by 2.0 runs per game in this spot.  Texas is 41-20 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 2.0 runs per game on the year at home.  Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Tuesday.