20* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -114

After losing Game 1 of this series to the Washington Nationals, the Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 2.  After all, they are 14-4 following a loss this season, including a perfect 5-0 in their last five in this situation.

John Lackey has been dominant in his first season in Chicago.  He's 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in 12 starts this year, including 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.871 WHIP in his last three.  Lackey is also 2-0 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in five career starts against Washington.

Gio Gonzalez is 3-5 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in six home starts.  Gonzalez has really struggled of late, going 0-3 with a 7.13 ERA in his last three starts.  He allowed five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 5-8 loss to the Cubs on May 7 in his only start against them this year.

The Cubs are 10-2 in their last 12 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Chicago is 55-24 in its last 79 games overall.  The Cubs are 4-1 in Lackey's last five starts.  The Nationals are 0-4 in Gonzalez's last four starts.  Washington is 0-5 in Gonzalez's last five starts vs. NL Central opponents.  Chicago is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -119

The Miami Marlins (32-31) are having a fine season up to this point.  But they are coming off consecutive losses and want to get back in the win column tonight.  That shouldn't be a problem considering the edge they have on the mound over the lowly San Diego Padres (26-38).

Wei-Yin Chen has proven to be an excellent addition to the rotation this year.  He's 3-2 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in 12 starts, including 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in five road starts.

Colin Rea wouldn't start in most rotations in the majors.  He's 3-2 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.330 WHIP in 11 starts this year.  He's 2-1 with a 4.46 ERA at home, and 0-0 with a 5.71 ERA in his last three starts.

Miami is 21-9 (+17.3 Units) against the money line after a game without an extra base hit over the last three seasons.  The Marlins are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. National League West.  Miami is 6-1 in its last seven Monday games.  The Padres are 1-9 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Marlins Monday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 5 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in must-win mode now with their season on the line.  They caught a huge break with the suspension of Draymond Green in Game 5, and I look for them to take advantage and give the Warriors a run for their money.

The Cavaliers have been outscored by 51 points when Green has played center in this series.  That is known as their "Death Lineup", which is the most effective lineup in the NBA.  Without it the Warriors are extremely vulnerable.  They have a deep bench, but nobody can replace what Green brings to this team.

Cleveland is 21-12 ATS versus good teams outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  The Cavs are 17-8 ATS vs. explosive offensive teams who score 103-plus points per game this year.  Cleveland is 19-9 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 5 Monday.

25* NL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Pirates -109

I've been on the Pirates and lost the last two days.  So, essentially they've lost the first two games of this series, and now they will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep at home today.  I'm going to back them as small favorites here given this great situation and bet them for more today.

Jon Niese has been at his best at home this season.  He's 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in six home starts.  Niese has really turned it on of late, going 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts.  Niese is also 4-3 with a 3.45 ERA in 10 career starts against St. Louis, and his teams are 7-3 in those contests.

Mike Leake has just been an average pitcher this season for the Cardinals.  He is 4-4 with a 4.22 ERA in 12 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 4.66 ERA in his last three starts.  Leake is 8-4 with a 3.49 ERA in 25 lifetime starts vs. Pittsburgh, so the Pirates are clearly very familiar with him.

The Pirates are 37-18 in their last 55 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Pittsburgh is 14-6 in its last 20 Sunday games.  The Cardinals are 1-4 in Leake's last 5 starts vs. National League Central.  Bet the Pirates Sunday.

20* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates +102

The Pittsburgh Pirates are highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing three straight games coming in.  They should not be home underdogs to the St. Louis Cardinals when I believe they have the edge on the mound here.

Francisco Liriano has been a beast at home since he arrived in Pittsburgh.  He's 3-2 with a 3.14 ERA in five home starts this season.  Liriano owns the Cardinals, going 7-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 15 career starts against them.

Carlos Martinez is having a solid season at 6-5 with a 3.76 ERA, but he's 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA in his last three starts.  Plus, Martinez does not enjoy facing the Pirates, going 2-3 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.486 WHIP in six career starts against them.

The Pirates are 40-19 in their last 59 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Pittsburgh is 22-6 in Liriano's last 28 starts overall.  The Pirates are 14-2 in Liriano's last 16 home starts.  Pittsburgh is 8-0 in Liriano's last eight starts during Game 2 of a series.  Bet the Pirates Saturday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Cleveland -2

The Cleveland Cavaliers proved their naysayers wrong with an emphatic 30-point victory in Game 3.  Now they have the belief that they can beat the Warriors, and they will ride that wave into a Game 4 victory again tonight to even the series.

Home-court advantage has been huge for the Cavaliers all season.  They are now 41-8 at home on the year and a perfect 8-0 at home in the playoffs.  They have won seven of their eight playoff home games by 11 points or more, and they are winning at home in the postseason by an average of over 21 points per game.

The Warriors have certainly been vulnerable on the road in these playoffs, especially here of late.  They are just 2-4 in their last six playoff road games with their two wins only coming by 7 points apiece.  They have actually been outscored by an average of 13.3 points per game in their last six playoff road games.

Cleveland is 9-1 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games overall.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 4 Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -134

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a massive edge on the mound today over the St. Louis Cardinals.  They should certainly be bigger favorites as a result, so we'll take advantage and back them at this nice -134 price.

Gerrit Cole is the ace of this staff, going 5-4 with a 2.85 ERA in 11 starts this season.  He certainly has enjoyed his fair share of success against the Cardinals, going 6-4 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 11 career starts.
 
St. Louis starter Michael Wacha hasn't won a game since April 23 in San Diego.  He's  2-6 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.508 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three.  Wacha has gone 0-2 with an 8.79 ERA in his last three starts against Pittsburgh, yielding 14 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings.

The Pirates are 40-18 in Cole's last 58 starts, 25-9 in his last 34 home starts, and 14-2 in his last 16 Friday starts.  Pittsburgh is 40-16 in its last 56 Friday games overall.  The Cardinals are 0-7 in Wacha's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  St. Louis is 1-7 in Wacha's last eight starts overall.  Take the Pirates Friday.

20* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Brewers -111

The Milwaukee Brewers are showing great value as small home favorites over the New York Mets tonight.  They are playing well coming in having won five of their last seven.  Plus, they certainly have the edge on the mound in this one.

Jimmy Nelson has been one of their best starters this season.  Nelson is 5-4 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in 12 starts, including 4-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in seven home starts.  Nelson is also 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.700 WHIP in three career starts against New York.

Bartolo Colon is having a solid season for the Mets as well at 4-3 with a 3.34 ERA in 11 starts, including 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in six road starts.  But Colon certainly has struggled against the Brewers, going 3-3 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  He has given up 9 earned runs in 11 innings in his last two starts against Milwaukee.

The Mets are 2-8 in their last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  New York is 1-6 in Colon's last seven starts vs. NL Central opponents.  The Brewers are 5-0 in Nelson's last five starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Bet the Brewers Thursday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers represent my favorite bet of the entire postseason in Game 3 of the NBA Finals tonight.  This is a must-win for them if they want to make a series out of it, and they certainly won't be lacking any motivation after the showing they put forth in Oakland.

The media has counted the Cavaliers out and left them for dead.  But they aren't going to go out this way, and you can bet they will be playing with a chip on their shoulders tonight.  They will win the 50/50 balls in this one behind the energy from their home crowd and pick up a win that will get them back in this series.

After all, Cleveland has been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 40-8 at home, including a perfect 7-0 in the playoffs.  The Cavaliers have rarely even been tested at home in these playoffs as six of their seven victories have come by 11 points or more with an average margin of victory of 20.9 points per game.

The Warriors haven't exactly played great on the road here of late.  They are 2-3 in their last five road games in these playoffs with their two wins coming by 7 and 7 points.  They have been outscored by an average of 10.0 points per game in their last five road games.

Cleveland is 21-10 ATS in home game revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 8-1 ATS in home games versus good teams outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season.  Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 3 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Marlins -101

The Miami Marlins have the decided advantage on the mound today and should be favored because of it.  Instead, we are getting them at basically even money tonight against the Minnesota Twins, who are just 17-40 on the season.

Wei-Yin Chen has proven to be an excellent addition to the Marlins' rotation this year.  He's 3-2 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 11 starts, including 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 0.904 WHIP in four road starts.  Chen is also 3-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.173 WHIP in six career starts against Minnesota.

Ricky Nolasco is a former Marlin who just hasn't had any success since he left Miami.  he's 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA in 11 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in five home starts.  Nolasco is also 1-2 with a 5.51 ERA over his last three starts.

The Marlins are 8-3 in their last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Miami is 6-2 in Chen's last eight starts overall.  The Twins are 17-43 in their last 60 overall.  Minnesota is 1-6 in Nolasco's last seven starts.  The Twins are 1-9 in their last 10 Wednesday games.  Minnesota is 4-14 in its last 18 home games.  Take the Marlins Wednesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Angels/Yankees OVER 9

This game between the Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees tonight should see plenty of offensive fireworks to push the final combined score OVER 9 runs.  These are two awful starting pitchers going at it, plus the wind is expected to be blowing out to right-center field at 11 miles per hour tonight.

Michael Pineda has lost it this season for the Yankees.  he's 2-6 with a 6.41 ERA and 1.610 WHIP in 11 starts this year, including 1-2 with a 7.48 ERA and 1.662 WHIP in five home starts.  Pineda is also 0-1 with a 12.60 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his lone career start against Los Angeles.

David Huff will be making his first start of the season for the Angels, who are in dire straights in terms of their lack of starting pitching.  Huff has posted an 11.59 ERA and 2.575 WHIP in his lone career start against the Yankees.  He went 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three starts at Triple-A Salt Lake this season.

The OVER is 14-5 in Angels last 19 games vs. a right-hander starter.  The OVER is 6-1 in Angels last seven games following a loss.  The OVER is 6-1 in Yankees last seven when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-0-1 in Pineda's last six starts when working on 4 days or rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-141)

The Cubs have gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall to improve to 39-16 on the season for the MLB's best record.  But they are coming off a loss yesterday, which will have them motivated in Game 1 of this series against the lowly Philadelphia Phillies.

The Cubs have a massive advantage on the mound today that will lead them to victory by multiple runs.  Jon Lester is 6-3 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Lester has never lost to the Phillies, going 5-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Adam Morgan is clearly the worst starter in the Phillies' rotation.  He's 1-4 with a 7.06 ERA and 1.514 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Morgan has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA and 1.989 WHIP in two career starts against them.

Chicago is 16-5 against the run line (+11.5 Units) after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season.  The Cubs are a very profitable 34-21 against the run line (+13.1 Units) in all games this season.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 2 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers had the Golden State Warriors on the ropes with a lead late in the 3rd quarter.  But the Warriors got an unbelievable 45 points from their bench to pull away, which isn't going to happen again in Game 2.

I've spoke about the zig-zag-theory, which means taking the team that lost the previous game.  While it's only .500 this entire postseason, it is very profitable in Game 2's over time.  Indeed, the loser of Game 1 is 204-159-13 (56.2%) ATS in Game 2 since 1991.

The Cavaliers will make the necessary adjustments in Game 2.  Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for only 20 points in Game 1, and if they do anything near that again, the Cavaliers will pounce.  J.R. Smith and Channing Frye, two key members of the Cavs, will certainly do more than they did in Game 1.

Plays against home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1996.  Golden State is 4-12 ATS in home games in non-conference games this season.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 2 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -126

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as small home favorites over the New York Yankees Sunday.  They lost yesterday, which will have them motivated to get Game 3 here and take this series.

Kevin Gausman is 0-3 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in eight starts this season.  He's obviously motivated to get his first win of the year, and it's only a matter of bad luck for the reason he doesn't have on yet.  Guasman is 1-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in six career starts against New York.

C.C. Sabathia is actually pitching pretty well this season, but the fact of the matter is that this guy is far past his prime, and he'll be going downhill sooner rather than later.  He's 3-4 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in eight starts this season.  But he's only averaging 5.9 innings/start, which shows that he hasn't been very efficient at all.

The Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win.  New York is 2-9 in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orioles are 50-20 in their last 70 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Yankees are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings.  New York is 1-4 in Sabathia's last 5 starts vs. Baltimore.  Take the Orioles Sunday.

20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -158

The Chicago White Sox are going through their worst stretch of the season to fall to 29-26 on the year.  Look for ace Chris Sale to get the White Sox back on track today with a win over the Detroit Tigers.

Sale is 9-1 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 5-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in six road starts.  The left-hander has gone 6-5 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 14 career starts against Detroit as well.

The Tigers will be sending out their worst starter in Mike Pelfrey today.  Pelfrey is 0-5 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.785 WHIP in 10 starts, including 0-2 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in five home starts.  Pelfrey has never beaten the White Sox, going 0-4 with a 6.20 ERA and 1.845 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

The White Sox are 7-0 in Sale's last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 9-1 in Sale's last 10 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  The White Sox are 4-0 in Sale's last four Saturday starts.  Chicago is 4-1 in Sale's last five starts vs. Detroit.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

20* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Indians -167

This is the ultimate mound mismatch tonight when the Cleveland Indians host the Kansas City Royals in Game 2 of this series.  I'll gladly lay this price with Danny Salazar over Edinson Volquez of the Royals.

Salazar is having a Cy Young-caliber season.  He's 5-3 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.144 WHIP with 72 K's in 60 1/3 innings.  He's 3-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.893 WHIP in four home starts.  Salazar is also 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts against Kansas City, giving up only 3 earned runs in 20 innings.

Edinson Volquez has been solid at home, but he's 2-2 with a 6.95 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in four road starts this season.  Volquez hates facing the Indians, going 2-5 with an 8.31 ERA and 2.106 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  He has given up at least 3 earned runs in seven of those eight starts.

The Royals are 7-15 in their last 22 road games.  Kansas City is 1-5 in Volquez's last six road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Indians are 10-1 in Salazar's last 11 Friday starts.  Cleveland is 7-1 in Salazar's last eight home starts.  Bet the Indians Friday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a lot going for them heading into Game 1 of this series tonight.  For starters, they've had three extra days of rest after beating the Raptors in six games.  We've seen them thrive with extra rest in these playoffs.

Indeed, the Cavaliers made easy work of the Hawks in a 104-93 home victory as 8-point favorites in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.  After sweeping the Hawks, they crushed Toronto 115-84 at home in Game 1 as 11-point favorites last series.

There's no question that the Cavaliers are the more motivated team heading into this series, too.  This is a rematch from last year's NBA Finals.  The Cavs took the Warriors to six games even without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.  Now they have both healthy, want revenge, and are hitting on all cylinders right now as they've been the most impressive team in these playoffs.

Cleveland is 12-2 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 11-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  Golden State is 3-12 ATS in non-conference home games this season.  This is actually a hangover spot for the Warriors after fighting back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Thunder last series.  I look for them to come out flat compared to the Cavs in Game 1.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+111)

The Rockies have lost two of the first three games of this series to the Reds and four of their last five overall.  They'll be hungry to square the series in Game 4 here tonight and to get back in the win column.  I like their chances of doing so by multiple runs due to their edge on the mound and at the plate.

Eddie Butler has certainly held his own this season, going 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in five starts.  He has only given up 32 base runners in 27 2/3 innings and has been unfortunate to give up 14 earned runs with those results.

Alfredo Simon has been one of the worst starters in baseball.  He's 1-5 with a 9.15 ERA and 2.008 WHIP in nine starts, including 0-3 with a monstrous 13.85 ERA and 2.846 WHIP in four road starts.  Simon is also 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA and 2.375 WHIP in two career starts against Colorado.

Cincinnati is 12-24 against the run line (-16.5 Units) in night games this season.  The Reds are 5-15 against the run line (-12.1 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +165 to -135 this season.  Cincinnati is 2-9 in Simon's last 11 road starts.  The Reds are 19-49 in their last 68 overall.  Take the Rockies on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -1.5 (-109)

The Colorado Rockies exploded for 17 runs in a 17-4 beat down of the Cincinnati Reds yesterday to put an end to a 3-game losing streak.  Look for their bats to stay red hot today and for them to win by multiple runs thanks to their massive advantage on the mound.

Tyler Chatwood has been nothing short of brilliant for the Rockies, going 6-3 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 10 starts, including 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his last three.  He has given up just one earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts.

John Lamb is still looking for his first win of the season for the Reds.  Lamb is 0-3 with a 6.84 ERA and 1.817 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-2 with a 15.25 ERA and 2.868 WHIP in two road starts.

The Reds are 0-5 in Lamb's five starts this season and 0-8 in his last eight starts overall.  Plays against all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (CINCINNATI) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (NL), after a loss by 6 runs or more are 46-12 (79.3%, +32.8 units) over the last five seasons.

Colorado is 19-4 against the run line (+16.5 Units) vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last two seasons.  Cincinnati is 0-10 against the run line (-11.4 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +110 to +155 this season.  Bet the Rockies on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals -114

We are getting the Washington Nationals at a great price here today as small road favorites over the Philadelphia Phillies.  The Phillies are clearly overvalued because they have overachieved this season, but they have lost four straight and eight of 10 overall, which is only a sign of things to come for them.

Aaron Nola is having a nice season for the Phillies at 4-3 with a 3.14 ERA.  But Nola has struggled at home, going 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in four starts.  He has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-1 with a 5.32 ERA in four career starts against them.

Joe Ross is the most underrated starter in the Nationals' rotation.  He has gone 4-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in five road starts.  Ross is also 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.652 WHIP in his lone career start against Philadelphia.  He pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings in a 9-1 win at Philadelphia on April 15 earlier this season.

Philadelphia is 18-43 (-24.6 Units) against the money line revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last three seasons.  The Nationals are 5-1 in their last six road games.  The Phillies are 1-4 in Nola's last five home starts.  Washington is 6-1 in its last seven trips to Philadelphia.  Bet the Nationals Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Warriors Game 7 No-Brainer on Golden State -7

The Golden State Warriors have all the momentum right now.  After coming back from a 3-1 deficit in this series, they have forced a Game 7 by winning the last two games, including Game 6 on the road by 7.  I like them to win by double-digits now in Game 7 so we'll back them laying 7 points here.

The Warriors have made some nice adjustments these last two games by going bigger.  They have only been outrebounded by a combined 2 boards these last two games.  Playing the Thunder pretty much even on the glass has been the difference, and I expect them to continue to battle on the boards with everything on the line in Game 7.

The Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Golden State is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 Monday games.  The Warriors are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last seven visits to Golden State.  Bet the Warriors in Game 7 Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -118

Pretty generous price here with the Cardinals as small road favorites over the Milwaukee Brewers today.  Carlos Martinez has struggled of late, but he's still the better starter here and worth the price of admission.

Martinez is 0-3 with an 8.40 ERA in his last three starts, which is why he's undervalued here.  But he's been dominant away from home, going 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three road starts.  Martinez is 1-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in four career starts against Milwaukee as well.

Junior Guerra is overvalued right now because he hasn't lost yet.  He's 3-0 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in five starts.  While impressive, he's about to suffer his first loss of the season today against the Cardinals, whom he has never faced.

Martinez is 16-4 (+12.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 7-0 in their last 7 after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. St. Louis is 5-1 in Martinez's last six road starts.  Bet the Cardinals Monday.

20* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox -135

The Boston Red Sox have lost the first two games of this series with the Toronto Blue Jays.  That includes a blown save last night as they were leading by one going into the 9th.  They'll be highly motivated to avoid the sweep in Game 3 Sunday.

I like their chances of getting a win here with ace David Price on the mound.  He's undervalued right now because he's off to a sub-par start this season.  But getting him as only a -135 favorite here is a huge discount.  Price is 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last three starts.  He's also 17-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in 22 career starts against Toronto.

R.A. Dickey is 41 years old and washed up.  He's 2-6 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.319 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 0-4 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in five home starts.  Dickey is 5-8 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in 18 career starts against Boston as well.

Toronto is 0-7 (-8.1 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.  Price is 18-4 (+10.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.  His 17-2 record against the Blue Jays alone is enough to warrant a bet on the Red Sox this afternoon.  Bet the Red Sox Sunday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+108)

The Arizona Diamondbacks are highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four straight games coming in.  I look for them to get back in the win column tonight against the lowly San Diego Padres by multiple runs thanks to the edge they have on the mound.

Ace Zack Greinke gets the ball to stop the bleeding.  Greinke is coming around, going 2-1 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has owned the Padres, going 6-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.807 WHIP in 13 career starts against them.

Cesar Vargas wouldn't start on most teams in the majors.  He's 0-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.954 WHIP in three road starts.  Look for the Diamondbacks to get on him early and often in this one.

Greinke is 25-3 (+18.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -200 or more in his career.  His teams are winning by an average of 3.2 runs per game in this spot.  Enough said.  Take the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Saturday.

20* Warriors/Thunder Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State +2.5

The Golden State Warriors showed their championship resolve by winning Game 5 120-111 over the Thunder.  Now they are ready to take the show on the road and finally play up to their potential after a disastrous two games in Oklahoma City earlier this series.

You can ask any NBA player and they'll tell you that a close-out game is the hardest.  That's especially the case for the Thunder, who haven't been to the NBA Finals in a while.  It's also tough to close out the defending champions, especially one with the mental fortitude of the Warriors.

There were some adjustments in Game 5 that I really liked from the Warriors.  They played Andrew Bogut big minutes to counter the big lineup of the Thunder, and it worked.  Bogut had 15 points and 14 rebounds in nearly 30 minutes of action.  He was a big reason the Warriors actually outrebounded the Thunder 54-50 for the game.

Golden State is 13-4 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past two seasons.  The Warriors are 60-43 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  OKC is 11-20 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game this season.  Bet the Warriors in Game 6 Saturday.

15* Cavs/Raptors Game 6 No-Brainer on Cleveland -6

I realize that the home team has dominated this series all season long.  In fact, the home team is 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in all meetings between the Cavs and Raptors this season.  I've even been on the home team in four of the first five games in this series.

But I'm reversing course in Game 6.  The Cavaliers will really buckle down heading into Game 6 to try and get a signature road win and beat the West to the NBA Finals, which will give them the advantage in rest going in.  Lebron James and company will make a big point of finishing this series out on the road and not going back home for a Game 7.  It will be the emphasis today.

After all, that 116-78 beat down the Cavs put on the Raptors in Game 5 had to be extremely deflating for Toronto players.  Even though they've won two games this series, they know they stand no chance of winning it if they have to go back to Cleveland.  The season has already been a success for the Raptors, while anything short of a championship would be a disappointment for Cleveland.  That's why I like the mindset of the Cavs a lot more coming in to Game 6.

Plays against home underdogs (TORONTO) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 83-46 (64.3%) ATS since 1996.  Toronto is 0-8 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 1-10 ATS after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last two years.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 6 Friday.

20* MLB GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -125

The Toronto Blue Jays are really starting to play good baseball coming into this series with the AL East-leading Boston Red Sox.  They have won five of their last seven games overall, all of which have come on the road.  Now they return home motivated to gain some ground on the Red Sox in the division, starting with Game 1 tonight.

And Game 1 is certainly in their favor on the mound.  Aaron Sanchez is 4-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Sanchez has owned the Red Sox, going 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in three career starts against them.  He has given up 1 earned run over 14 innings in his last two starts against Boston.

Joe Kelly wouldn't start for most teams in the majors.  He has gone 2-0 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.825 WHIP in four starts this season.  Kelly certainly doesn't enjoy facing the Blue Jays, going 1-1 with a 6.96 ERA and 1.577 WHIP in six career starts against them.  He gave up 7 earned runs in 3 innings against Toronto on April 8 this season.

Boston is 3-14 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last three seasons.  Toronto is 20-6 (+13.2 Units) against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span over the last two seasons.  Take the Blue Jays Friday.

20* Thunder/Warriors Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -7.5

The Golden State Warriors must go 3-0 the rest of this series if they want to have a chance at winning back-to-back titles and end their amazing season the right way.  I like their chances of a big performance in Game 5 tonight considering it's at home.

After all, the Warriors are 46-3 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 14.4 points per game.  They throttled the Thunder in Game 2 118-91 and a similar result can be expected tonight.  That was their best game of the series, and they will get back to moving the basketball and being more aggressive on 50/50 balls at home tonight, especially on the boards with everything at stake.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this rivalry as the home team is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Golden State is 27-11-1 ATS in its last 39 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Warriors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.

Plays on any team (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 42-17 (71.2%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Warriors in Game 5 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -115

The Houston Astros are clearly undervalued right now because they have underachieved with a 19-28 record to this point.  The Baltimore Orioles are overvalued right now because they have overachieved with a 26-18 record.  But after winning the first two games of this series, the Astros are gaining confidence and will pull off the sweep tonight.

Lance McCullers opened the season on the disabled list, but he recently returned.  He gave up only two earned runs in six innings with seven strikeouts in a 1-2 loss to Texas last time out.  In his lone career start against Baltimore, McCullers pitched 9 innings of one run, four-hit ball with 11 strikeouts in a 3-1 victory last year.

Kevin Gausman got off to a fantastic start this season for the Orioles, but he has cooled off here recently.  Gausman is 0-0 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has allowed 28 base runners over 17 2/3 innings in those three outings.

Houston is 22-5 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are 4-11 in Gausman's last 15 road starts.  Houston is 5-1 in the last six meetings with Baltimore, and 5-1 in the last six home meetings as well.  Take the Astros Thursday.

20* Raptors/Cavs Game 5 No-Brainer on Cleveland -10.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers certainly did not want to lose both games in Toronto to have this series evened up at 2-2.  However, it will only have them more motivated than ever to make a statement in Game 5 at home and regain control of this series.

After all, home-court advantage has been enormous when these teams have gotten together recently.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  And the games in Cleveland haven't even been close.

Cleveland is 3-0 at home against Toronto this season.  It won by 22 points in the regular season, by 31 in Game 1, and by 19 in Game 2.  That's an average margin of victory of 24.0 points per game.  That's why I'm not concerned at all about laying 10.5 points with the Cavs in Game 5 here tonight.

Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% this season.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +109

The oddsmakers have the wrong team favored here between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates.  That's evident when you look at the starting pitching matchup in this one tonight.  I like the Diamondbacks to bounce back after losing Game 1 as a result.

Rubby De La Rosa has been the best starter for the Diamondbacks this season, going 3-3 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in seven starts.  He has owned the Pirates, too, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.615 WHIP in two career starts against them.  He gave up one run and four base runners in 6 innings of a 7-1 home victory over the Pirates on April 23 earlier this season.

Jeff Locke is the biggest weak link in the Pirates' rotation.  The left-hander has gone 2-3 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.578 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Locke has never beaten the Diamondbacks, going 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA and 2.063 WHIP in three career starts against them.

De La Rosa is a perfect 6-0 (+7.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last two seasons.  Arizona is 11-3 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games after three or more consecutive road games this season.  Take the Diamondbacks Wednesday.

25* Western Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Golden State -1.5

The Golden State Warriors are in must-win mode tonight to avoid falling behind 3-1 in this series to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Look for them to come through just as they have all season in these spots with tremendous resiliency.

In fact, the Warriors haven't lost back-to-back games all season.  They are 12-0 straight up in games following a loss this year.  Their 28-point blowout loss to the Thunder in Game 3 certainly is not sitting well with them, and I fully expect them to go out and do something about it tonight in Oklahoma City.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a road loss are 63-26 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1996.

Golden State is 10-2 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  The Warriors are 21-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last two years.  Golden State is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games following a loss.  The Warriors are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games following a ATS loss.  Bet the Warriors in Game 4 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Chicago Cubs -104

After losing three straight and six of their last eight games overall, the Chicago Cubs are clearly in their worst stretch of the season.  But that will only light a fire under them and have them bouncing back in a big way tonight to end this skid against the hated St. Louis Cardinals.

Jason Hammel might be the most underrated starter on this staff, and one of the most underrated in all of baseball.  He has gone 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Hammel has given up 1, 2, 3 and 0 earned runs in his last four starts against St. Louis, respectively.

Michael Wacha has lost it this season.  He is 2-4 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.461 WHIP in nine starts, including 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his last three.  Wacha has really struggled against the Cubs, going 3-4 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in nine career starts against them.  He's 0-3 with an 8.85 ERA in his last four starts against Chicago, giving up 19 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings.

The Cubs are 46-14 in their last 60 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Chicago is 62-27 in its last 89 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Cubs are 7-1 in Hammel's last eight starts vs. NL Central opponents.  The Cardinals are 2-9 in Wacha's last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Cubs Tuesday.

20* Cavs/Raptors Game 4 No-Brainer on Toronto +6.5

The Toronto Raptors proved to themselves that they could play with the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  Not only did they win, they dominated in a 99-84 victory while limiting the Cavaliers to 35.4% shooting and outrebounding them 57-43 for the game.

Bismack Biyombo was a one-man wrecking crew on the glass, finishing with a playoff-record 26 rebounds and four blocked shots.  It was an inspirational performance from him and the Raptors that will give them the confidence to win Game 4 again tonight.

Toronto was one of the best home teams in the NBA all season.  It has gone 39-11 at home this season.  In fact, the Raptors are now a perfect 3-0 straight up at home against Cleveland this year, winning all three games outright as underdogs.  Now they are being undervalued once again in Game 4 as 6.5-point home dogs.

Cleveland is 2-10 ATS after covering five or six of its last seven games against the spread this season.  The Cavaliers are 2-11 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the last two years.  Cleveland is 14-23 ATS as a road favorite this season.  The Cavaliers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings.  Bet the Raptors Monday.

15* Cubs/Cardinals NL Central ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -113

The Chicago Cubs are going through their toughest stretch of the season, and now it's time for them to show their resiliency.  Chicago has lost five of its last seven games overall to 'fall' to 29-13 on the season.

Look for John Lackey to get them right back on track tonight.  The right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.31 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in his last three.  Lackey is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in three career starts against the Cardinals, which are now his former team.

Adam Wainwright is clearly washed up and struggling to return to form after surgery.  The right-hander is 4-3 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in nine starts this season.  A sign that his stuff just isn't good anymore is the fact that he has struck out only 31 batters in 51 2/3 innings.

The Cubs are 33-13 (+17.3 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 11-1 (+10.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.  The Cubs are 46-13 in their last 59 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.  Chicago is 46-15 in its last 61 vs. NL Central opponents.  Take the Cubs Monday.

15* Cubs/Giants ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -122

The San Francisco Giants are highly motivated to win this series against the league-best Chicago Cubs.  They took Game 2 yesterday to square the series, and now I look for them to win Game 3 tonight due to the massive edge they have on the mound.

Ace Madison Bumgarner will get the ball for the Giants.  He is 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.870 WHIP in his last three.  Bumgarner is 6-2 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 10 career starts against Chicago as well.

Kyle Hendricks has been great at home for the Cubs this season, but he's 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA in three road starts.  Hendricks has also had no success against San Francisco, going 1-1 with a 5.56 ERA in two career starts against the Giants.

Bumgarner is a perfect 14-0 (+14.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  San Francisco is 24-6 (+20.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last three seasons.  The Giants are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall.  San Francisco is 10-1 in Bumgarner's last 11 starts vs. NL Central opponents.  Take the Giants Sunday.

20* Warriors/Thunder Game 3 No-Doubt Rout on Golden State -2.5

The Golden State Warriors played their game in Game 2 and ran away with a 27-point victory.  That was after playing too much one-on-one ball in Game 1 and losing by 4.  Look for them to stick to their roots again in Game 3 tonight, share the basketball, and beat the predictable Thunder.

The Warriors went 36-9 on the road this season, so winning in hostile environments hasn't been a problem for them all season.  They clearly figured out the Thunder in Game 2, and even though Kevin Durant had a big game, they rolled to victory with a huge second half.

Let's just look at the Warriors' 121-118 overtime victory in Oklahoma City earlier this season.  The Thunder outrebounded the Warriors 62-32 in that contest, yet they still didn't win.  I don't ever remember seeing a rebounding advantage that large in which a team lost.  The Warriors responded in Game 2 of this series by outrebounding the Thunder 54-45.  So they clearly know they can compete with them on the boards.

The Warriors are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  The Thunder are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Sunday games.  Golden State is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games in the second half of the season against teams who outrebound their opponents by 5-plus boards per game.  Oklahoma City is 11-22 ATS after having won four of its last five games this season.  Bet the Warriors in Game 3 Sunday.

20* Cavs/Raptors Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +6.5

The Toronto Raptors will be laying it all on the line in Game 3 tonight to get a victory and get back in this series against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  I believe they are showing tremendous value as 6.5-point underdogs here after getting blown out in both games in Cleveland to fall behind 2-0.

The Raptors have been one of the best home teams in the NBA all season.  They are 38-11 at home and outscoring opponents by 6.4 points per game in Toronto.  The Cavs are just 28-17 on the road compared to 39-8 at home.

Toronto is 9-1 ATS in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  The Raptors went 2-0 at home against Cleveland this season, winning outright as underdogs both times.

Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in road games after covering at least five of their last seven games against the spread this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-11 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more this year.  Cleveland is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 road games after scoring 100 points or more in four straight.  Bet the Raptors in Game 3 Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Marlins -143

I will look to back Jose Fernandez every chance I get.  He is already one of the best young pitchers in the game.  He's 5-2 with a 3.21 ERA in eight starts this season with 69 strikeouts in 47 2/3 innings.  Fernandez is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts as well.

Joe Ross got off to a good start for the Nationals this season, but he has cooled off considerably here of late.  Ross is 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.418 WHIP over his last three starts, giving up 10 earned runs and 26 base runners in 18 1/3 innings.

It's clear that Fernandez loves facing the Nationals.  After all, he has never lost to them, going 5-0 with a 1.09 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  If that's not domination then I don't know what is.

Fernandez is 26-4 (+21.7 Units) against the money line in home games in his career.  Fernandez is 14-0 (+14.0 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 in his career.  Take the Marlins Saturday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-109)

After losing three of their last four games overall, the Chicago Cubs come into this series with the San Francisco Giants highly motivated for a victory.  I look for them to take Game 1 by two runs or more thanks to the massive edge they have on the mound tonight.

Jake Arrieta has been the best starter in baseball since midseason last year.  He has opened the 2016 campaign 7-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.839 WHIP in eight starts, including 4-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.633 WHIP in four road starts.  Arrieta is also 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in four career starts against San Francisco.  In two starts against the Giants last season, Arrieta went 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA, pitching 13 2/3 shutout innings.

There may not be a starter in baseball that I like fading more than Jake Peavy.  The guy is simply done for.  Peavy is 1-4 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in eight starts this season for the Giants, giving up 33 runs in 40 innings.  He won't last long today against one of the best lineups in baseball in the Cubs.

Arrieta is 21-3 against the run line (+19.4 Units) in road games over the last two seasons.  Arrieta is 7-0 against the run line (+7.7 Units) against NL West opponents over the last two seasons.  Arrieta is 21-4 against the run line (+19.6 Units) in night games over the last two seasons.  Peavy is 7-20 against the run line (-15.8 Units) in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.

20* Raptors/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Toronto +13

The Cavs opened as 10.5-point favorites in Game 1.  After blowing out the Raptors 115-84, oddsmakers have set them as anywhere from 12 to 13-point favorites in Game 2.  This is clearly an overreaction, and as a result I believe the value is with the Raptors in Game 2 catching a ton of points.

I was on Cleveland in Game 1 because it was simply a bad spot for Toronto.  The Raptors were on one day of rest, while the Cavaliers had nine days off coming in.  But Game 2 is a much more level playing field now, and I look for the Raptors to come out with a much better effort tonight.

The Raptors have proven to be extremely resilient in these playoffs.  In fact, they have not lost two games in a row all postseason.  They are a perfect 6-0 straight up following a loss in the playoffs.  I'm not saying they're going to win today, but they will certainly stay within this 13-point spread.

Toronto is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points.  Cleveland is 1-9 ATS after covering five or six of their last seven against the spread this season.  The Raptors are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet the Raptors in Game 2 Thursday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+130)

The Chicago White Sox are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six of their last seven games coming in with those six losses coming by a combined 8 runs.  Their lone win during this stretch was a 7-1 victory over the Yankees with Chris Sale tossing a complete game.

Sale is arguably the best starter in baseball this season.  He has gone 8-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.758 WHIP in eight starts.  The left-hander has owned the Astros, going 3-1 with a 0.56 ERA and 0.719 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He has given up just 2 earned runs in 32 innings with 47 strikeouts.

Collin McHugh has been awful for the Astros.  He is 4-3 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.711 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-1 with an 8.74 ERA and 2.118 WHIP in three road starts.  McHugh is also 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his lone career start against Chicago.

Sale is 17-2 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in May games in his career with the Sox winning by 2.4 runs per game.  Chicago is 17-3 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 straight losses by 2 runs or less since 1997, winning by 2.3 runs per game.  Instead of laying the big juice on the money line, we'll back the White Sox on the run line today.  Take Chicago on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Thunder/Warriors Game 2 No-Brainer on Golden State -8.5

After blowing Game 1 by getting outscored by 19 points in the 2nd half, the Golden State Warriors are going to come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 2 tonight to even this series.  At the same time, I expect the Thunder to relax a little after stealing away home court with their Game 1 victory.

To say that was a rare home loss for the Warriors would be a massive understatement.  They are now 45-3 at home this season and outscoring teams by 14.1 points per game.  They outscored the Thunder by 11.5 points per game while going 2-0 at home in the regular season series.

Golden State is 25-10 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 30-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two years.  Golden State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Warriors are 51-25-2 ATS in their last 78 games following a straight up loss.  Bet the Warriors in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -106

Getting the Baltimore Orioles at nearly even money at home today is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.  After losing Game 1 of this series to the Mariners, I look for them to bounce back in a big way in Game 2.

Chris Tillman is having a great season for the Orioles, going 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in eight starts.  Tillman is 4-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in six home starts.  He has never lost to the Mariners, going 6-0 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in eight career starts against them.

Taijuan Walker got off to a great start this season, but he's struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA in his last three starts.  Walker is also 0-0 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in two career starts against Baltimore.

Baltimore is 14-3 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.  The Orioles are 11-2 in their last 13 during game 2 of a series.  Baltimore is 21-7 in its last 28 home games.  The Orioles are 75-33 in their last 108 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Baltimore is 37-18 in Tillman's last 55 home starts, including a perfect 6-0 this season.  Take the Orioles Wednesday.

20* Raptors/Cavs Game 1 No-Brainer on Cleveland -10.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a huge advantage in rest and preparation heading into Game 1 of this series.  The Cavs are recharged following a nine-day break between playoff series after sweeping the Atlanta Hawks last series.

Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors are running on fumes right now after playing back-to-back 7-game series.  They have only had one day off to rest and prepare for the Cavaliers, and that simply isn't going to be enough here tonight.

I also think that not having Jonas Valanciunas is going to pose a big problem for the Raptors.  The Cavaliers also made 77 3-pointers in their sweep of the Hawks and are hitting on all cylinders right now with an 8-0 record in these playoffs.  They certainly look like the team to beat right now.

Cleveland won its lone home meeting with Toronto 122-100 this season.  The Raptors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Cavaliers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Cavs in Game 1 Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-115)

Taking the Chicago Cubs on the Run Line has been a very profitable move all season considering they are scoring 5.9 runs per game and giving up 2.9 runs per game for the best run differential in baseball.  We'll back them on the Run Line Tuesday against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Kyle Hendricks is having a fine season just like the rest of the Cubs' starting staff.  He is 2-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in six starts, including 1-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in his last three.  Hendricks has owned the Brewers, going 4-1 with a 1.49 ERA and 0.874 WHIP in his last seven starts against them.

I'll gladly bet against Chase Anderson today.  The right-hander is 1-5 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.642 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-2 with a 7.43 ERA and 2.176 WHIP in three home starts.  Anderson is also 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in his last three outings.

The Cubs are 13-3 against the run line (+9.9 Units) in road games this season.  Chicago is 14-4 against the run line (+10.0 Units) vs. division opponents this season.  The Cubs are 7-0 against the run line (+8.2 Units) after a loss this season.  Chicago is 10-0 against the run line (+11.0 Units) vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game over the last three seasons.  Take the Cubs on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-114)

I'm going to back the Cleveland Indians on the run line today due to the massive edge they have on the mound.  It also doesn't hurt that they come in with a lot of confidence at the plate after throttling the Cincinnati Reds 15-6 Monday.

Look for Danny Salazar to continue his torrid start to 2016.  The right-hander is 3-2 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in two home starts.  Salazar has struck out 53 batters in 42 2/3 innings.

Alfredo Simon has been one of the worst starters in the majors this season.  He is 1-3 with a 7.96 ERA and 1.807 WHIP in six starts, including 0-2 with a 15.42 ERA and 3.640 WHIP in two road starts.  Simon gave up 5 earned runs and 12 base runners over 6 2/3 innings in his lone start at Cleveland last season.

Plays against all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (CINCINNATI) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (NL), after a loss by 6 runs or more are 42-12 (77.8%, +28.7 units) over the last five seasons.  Cincinnati is 0-7 against the run line (-8.1 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +110 to +155 this season.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Warriors Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -7.5

The Golden State Warriors are the most difficult team to prepare for in the NBA.  The Oklahoma City Thunder won't be ready for the challenges they'll face in Game 1.  They may do better as the series goes on, but I give the Warriors a big advantage in Game 1.

Look at what the Warriors have done in Game 1's so far.  They beat the Rockets 104-78 in Game 1 of their opening round series, and then throttled the Blazers 118-106 in Game 1 of the second round.  That contest was a bigger blowout than the final score even indicated as the Blazers made a big run in the 4th quarter with the game already decided.

The Warriors have won all three meetings with the Thunder this season.  They won by 15 and 8 points at home, and in overtime on the road.  I believe their small ball approach will shine through in Game 1, and the Thunder will be the team that has to adjust as this series goes on, not Golden State.

Golden State is 11-1 ATS off two straight games where it was called for 25 or more fouls over the last three seasons.  The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Golden State is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Warriors in Game 1 Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -147

The Detroit Tigers have gone 2-11 in their last 13 games overall.  Most of those have come on the road with just three home games during that stretch.  It's safe to say they'll be motivated to get back on track as they face the league-worst Minnesota Twins (10-26) at home this series.

I like their chances of taking Game 1 tonight with ace Jordan Zimmerman on the mound.  He has been the one consistent starter in their rotation, going 5-2 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in seven starts.  Zimmerman is also 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two career starts against Minnesota.

Jose Berrios may have a bright future for Minnesota, but he has struggled in his rookie season thus far.  Berrios is 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.745 WHIP in three starts while allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 1/3 innings.

Minnesota is 0-13 (-14.0 Units) against the money line after two straight games without giving up a stolen base this season.  Zimmerman is 48-12 (+25.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more in his career.  The Twins are 1-13 (-11.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season.  Bet the Tigers Monday.

20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Mets -124

The New York Mets have lost the first two games of this series to the Colorado Rockies.  They certainly want to avoid the sweep with a win in Game 3 today, and I look for them to get the job done with the edge they have on the mound this afternoon.

Jacob DeGrom is 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in five starts this season.  Tyler Chatwood has been good on the road for the Rockies, but he's 0-3 with a 7.87 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in three starts at Coors Field this season.  Degrom has faced the Rockies twice, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA while pitching 15 shutout innings and striking out 19.

New York is 15-4 (+11.9 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.  DeGrom is 9-1 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 3 seasons.

DeGrom is 17-3 (+14.3 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.  The Mets are 8-0 in DeGrom's last 8 Sunday starts.  New York is 12-4 in DeGrom's last 16 road starts.  Bet the Mets Sunday.

15* Heat/Raptors Game 7 No-Brainer on Miami +4.5

The Miami Heat overcame a 3-2 deficit int he first round and won the final two games against the Charlotte Hornets.  After winning Game 6 against the Raptors to force Game 7, I trust the Heat to get the job done today.

Miami is a veteran bunch that has been in these pressure-packed situations before.  Toronto has never been to the Conference Finals, and that pressure will be felt by their players more tonight.  Dwayne Wade and company relish this stage.

From a basketball perspective, I like what the Heat did in Game 6 by going small.  They scored 103 points, which was the most they put up in any game this series.  They'll go small again and it will work here as their small lineup with Wade, Joe Johnson, Goran Dragic, Justice Winslow and Josh McRoberts will be key to victory.

The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 Sunday games.  Miami is 28-12-1 ATS in its last 41 conference semifinal games.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Toronto is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 playoff games.  Bet the Heat Sunday.

15* Cardinals/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Louis -103

The St. Louis Cardinals lost Game 1 of this series to the Los Angeles Dodgers last night, but they're primed to get revenge in Game 2 due to the massive advantage they have on the mound.  Plus, we're getting them at nearly even money here.

Carlos Martinez is 4-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.974 WHIP in six starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.786 WHIP in two road starts.  In two starts against the Dodgers last season, Martinez went 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA while allowing just one earned run and four hits with 19 strikeouts in 14 innings.

Scott Kazmir has completely lost it for the Dodgers.  The left-hander is 2-3 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.419 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He has already allowed a whopping 9 homers in 37 1/3 innings pitched this year.

Kazmir is 0-9 (-11.4 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last two seasons.  Martinez is 16-3 (+13.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last two seasons.  St. Louis is 13-3 in Martinez's last 16 road starts.  Roll with the Cardinals Saturday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks -130

The Arizona Diamondbacks are hungry for a victory after losing three straight coming in.  They have dropped the first two games of this series to the Giants, but now they finally have the edge on the mound tonight, and that will lead them to victory in Game 3.

Pat Corbin has been solid this season at 1-2 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in seven starts.  Corbin is 4-4 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in 11 career starts against San Francisco.  Better yet, he's 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Giants, pitching 13 shutout innings in the process.

Jake Peavy is simply done for and will find himself out of the Giants' rotation before long.  The right-hander is 1-4 with an 8.47 ERA and 1.912 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 0-3 with a 14.25 ERA and 2.500 WHIP in three road starts.  Peavy has allowed at least 4 runs in each of his last three starts against Arizona, posting a 7.20 ERA in the process.

Peavy is 32-63 (-26.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 in his career.  Peavy is 2-14 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last three seasons.  The Diamondbacks are 30-10 in Corbin's last 40 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  Arizona is 8-2 in Corbin's last 10 Saturday starts.  Bet the Diamondbacks Saturday.

15* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -125

The Toronto Blue Jays are 19-7 in their last 26 meetings with the Rangers, including 11-2 in their last 13 meetings in Texas.  That domination should continue Saturday considering the massive advantage the Blue Jays have on the mound tonight.

Marco Estrada is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues, going 1-2 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.088 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has gone 2-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.781 WHIP in four career starts against the Rangers as well.

Colby Lewis is off to a solid start for the Rangers at 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in seven starts.  However, the Blue Jays are his nemesis.  Lewis is 3-6 with a 6.71 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in 11 career starts against Toronto.

Toronto is 60-31 (+15.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  The Blue Jays are 10-1 in Estrada's last 11 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Toronto is 26-9 in its last 35 vs. AL West opponents.  Take the Blue Jays Saturday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -114

The New York Mets are showing solid value as small road favorites over the Colorado Rockies today.  I'll gladly back them at this price considering the massive edge I believe they have on the mound in this one.

Matt Harvey is undervalued right now due to a slow start that has him sitting at 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA.  But Harvey has owned the Rockies, going 2-0 with a 0.39 ERA and 0.565 WHIP in three career starts against them.  He has given up just 1 earned run in 23 innings against the Rockies.

Jon Gray is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in four starts this season for the Rockies, including 0-0 with an 11.42 ERA and 2.191 WHIP in two home starts.  Gray is also 0-0 with a 9.39 ERA and 1.565 WHIP in two career starts against New York.  He gave up 7 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings in his lone home start against the Mets last season.

Colorado is 10-31 (-21.3 Units) against the money line after a one run win over the last three seasons.  The Mets are 9-1 in their last 10 Friday games.  New York is 24-8 in its last 32 during Game 1 of a series.  The Rockies are 1-7 in their last eight home games.  Colorado is 1-6 in Gray's last seven starts.  Take the Mets Friday.

20* Raptors/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on Miami -4

The Miami Heat get the nod as only 4-point favorites over the Toronto Raptors at home in Game 6.  This veteran squad will take care of business tonight and force a Game 7, just as they did against the Charlotte Hornets last series.

The Heat faced two elimination games against the Hornets in the opening round.  They won Game 6 97-90 in Charlotte before cruising to a 106-73 home victory in Game 7.  They can certainly draw from how they played in those pressure-packed games and use that to get them through this huge Game 6.

The Raptors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Miami is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 Friday games.  The Heat are 27-12-1 ATS in their last 40 conference semifinal games.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Friday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -1.5

The San Antonio Spurs showed a lot of resiliency in Game 3 when they went into Oklahoma City and won 100-96 to gain back home-court advantage.  But after losing Game 5 at home, they now find themselves facing elimination.

This veteran team will not be phased by this situation.  The refs know they owe the Spurs as well after they missed two calls in the final minute that aided the Thunder in a 95-91 victory.  The NBA confirmed those missed calls in the media.  Look for the refs to favor the Spurs in Game 6 to help aid their victory and send this series back to San Antonio.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 72-33 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -132

The San Diego Padres just swept a double-header with the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday.  It was the first time that the Cubs lost two straight games all season.  This is clearly a letdown spot now for the Padres, not to mentioned they'll be fatigued after that double-header.

Jimmy Nelson has been one of the more underrated starters in the league this season.  He is 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 3-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in four home starts.

Nelson has dominated the Padres in two career starts against them.  He has gone 1-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in those two starts, giving up just 2 earned runs and 11 base runners over 11 2/3 innings.

San Diego is 9-30 (-20.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a win by 2 runs or less over the last three seasons.  The Padres are 2-17 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in road games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last two seasons.  The Padres are 8-20 in James Shields' last 28 starts.  Milwaukee is 7-2 in Nelson's last nine home starts, and 5-1 in his last six starts overall.  Take the Brewers Thursday.

20* Heat/Raptors Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Miami +5

I believe the Toronto Raptors miss Jonas Valanciunas more than the Miami Heat miss Hassan Whiteside.  That was pretty evident in Game 4 as the Heat were able to keep Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan out of the paint.  The duo combined for 6 of 28 from the floor and totaled 19 points.

Valanciunas has been the best player in this series for the Raptors, averaging 18.3 points on 64.9 percent shooting and 12.7 rebounds per contest.  DeRozan has shot just 33 percent and 3 of 19 from beyond the arc this postseason.  Lowry is shooting 33.1 percent overall and 19.7 percent from 3 in the playoffs.

I really trust Dwyane Wade in big moments like this Game 5.  He has been coming through time and time again for the Heat.  Wade has totaled 68 points while making 26 of 49 shots in his last two games.  With this game likely to come down to the wire again, I like the value we are getting with the +5, and I trust in Wade to deliver late once again.

The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Miami is 27-11-1 ATS in its last 39 conference semifinals games.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall, including 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -133

After losing Game 1 of this series 3-2 to the Cincinnati Reds, I fully expect the Pittsburgh Pirates to come back with a victory in Game 2.  This team is highly motivated right now after losing six of their last eight games overall.

I'll gladly back Juan Nicasio, who is 3-3 with a 3.16 ERA in six starts this season, including 1-2 with a 1.65 ERA in his last three.  One of those starts came against Cincinnati as Nicasio pitched 7 shutout innings in a 4-1 victory on April 29.

Alfredo Simon is clearly one of the worst starters in baseball.  The right-hander is 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.099 WHIP in five starts this season, giving up 20 earned runs and 42 base runners in 20 innings.  Simon is 0-2 with a 6.13 ERA in his last three starts against Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati is 4-19 (-15.5 Units) against the money line off a one run win over a division rival over the last three seasons.  The Reds are 27-55 in their last 82 overall.  Cincinnati is 17-43 in its last 60 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Pirates Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7.5

It's becoming more and more clear that Game 1 of this series was an aberration when the Spurs beat the Thunder by 32 points as everything went right for them.  Every other meeting between these teams this season has pretty much favored the Thunder and close games.

The Thunder are now 4-4 against the Spurs this season with three of their four losses coming by 8 points or fewer.  Their adjustments are working as this series progresses.  After having 39 assists in Game 1, the Spurs had 19 assists in each of their next two games, and then just 12 in the Game 4 loss Sunday.

After torching the Thunder for 79 points on 33-of-44 shooting in the first two games of this series, LaMarcus Aldridge has been held to 44 points on 16-of-39 shooting over the past two games.  Tim Duncan is a mere shell of his former self, and the Spurs' big men are really starting to get exposed, including Boris Diaw and David West, who are both too slow.

The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Oklahoma City is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600  Oklahoma City is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Thunder in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +5

The Portland Trail Blazers arguably should have won each of the last two games in this series.  They let a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter slip away in Game 2, but came back strong with a 120-108 victory over the Warriors in Game 3.

It's amazing the level of confidence the Warriors play with at home compared to on the road.  Putting up 120 points on this Golden State team is no small feat.  The Blazers are now 32-13 on their home floor for the season, outscoring opponents by an average of 6.0 points per game.

Stephen Curry is expected to sit Game 4 as well.  He likely will not come back until Game 5 or later, so I expect the Warriors to be needing him for Game 5 with this series tied 2-2.  Look for the Blazers to pull off the upset again tonight, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Plays against road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 67-31 (68.4%) ATS since 1996.  The home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Blazers in Game 4 Monday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -113

Getting the Pirates at nearly even money against the Reds is a gift from oddsmakers almost any time it's available.  That's the case tonight as the Pirates come in undervalued due to losing five of their last seven games overall, which also has them motivated here.  But theri last two series have come against the Cubs and Cardinals.

The Reds are just 13-19 on the season and clearly one of the worst teams in baseball.  Their bullpen is on pace to be historically bad, which can always squander anything they get from their starting pitching.  Their bullpen has posted a 6.60 ERA and 1.630 WHIP on the season.

Jon Niese is 3-1 in spite of a 5.94 ERA for the Pirates, but he's better than he's shown so far.  Niese has owned the Reds recently, giving up just 4 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings for a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts against them.

Cincinnati is 4-19 (-15.2 Units) against the money line after 6 or more consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  Niese is 16-4 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season in his career.  The Pirates are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 27-57 in their last 84 during game 1 of a series.  Take the Pirates Monday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Game 4 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder will even this series up with the San Antonio Spurs with a victory in Game 4 today.  This is essentially the series right here, and they cannot afford to go down 3-1 if they want any chance of keeping their NBA title hopes alive.

The Thunder have proven they can hang with the Spurs in their last two games.  They won Game 2 in San Antonio before losing by just 4 at home in Game 3.  They certainly have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA with a 34-11 record in Oklahoma City this year.  It will be rocking tonight.

Plays against favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1996.

Oklahoma City is 63-39 ATS in its last 102 games following a home loss.  The Thunder are 74-49 ATS in their last 123 games after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four.  The Spurs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Oklahoma City is 29-10-2 ATS in its last 41 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  Bet the Thunder in Game 4 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arizona Diamondbacks -140

The Arizona Diamondbacks just needed a series against the league-worst Atlanta Braves (7-22) to get back on track. After losing six in a row, the Diamondbacks have won each of the first two games of this series with the Braves, and now I expect them to cap off the sweep with another victory in Game 3 Sunday.

Pat Corbin has pitched very well outside of Arizona this season.  The left-hander is 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in three road starts.  Corbin has never lost to the Braves, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two career starts against them.  He has pitched 13 2/3 scoreless innings in those two starts.

Mike Foltynewicz is no more than a fill-in starter for the Braves.  He is 0-1 with a 9.81 ERA and 2.725 WHIP in one start this year.  He gave up 3 homers and 10 base runners in 3 2/3 innings against the Mets on May 2nd.  Foltynewicz has also never beaten the Diamondbacks, going 0-1 with an 8.70 ERA and 1.934 WHIP in two career starts against them.  He has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings.

Atlanta is 1-13 (-11.1 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season.  The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Corbin's last six road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Arizona is 21-7 in Corbin's last 28 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Brewers +105

The wrong team is favored here.  The Milwaukee Brewers want revenge after losing the first two games of this series to the Res, and they should get it today behind the advantage they have on the mound.

Jimmy Nelson is having a fabulous season.  He is 4-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in six starts and clearly the ace of this Milwaukee staff.  He'll be opposed by Brandon Finnegan, who is 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA in six starts for the Reds, including 0-1 with a 5.62 ERA in three home starts.

The Brewers are 5-1 in their last six games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  Milwaukee is 8-2 in Nelson's last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 26-53 in their last 79 overall.  Cincinnati is 1-4 in Finnegan's last five starts.  Roll with the Brewers Saturday.

20* Raptors/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on Toronto +5.5

The Toronto Raptors are showing excellent value in Game 3 as 5.5-point underdogs to the Miami Heat.  I still believe they are the better team in this series, and they certainly want to re-gain home-court advantage after losing it in Game 1's overtime loss.

But they showed huge resilience with their Game 2 overtime victory.  The Raptors trailed late before rallying behind Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas.  And they even overcame a 14-of-26 performance from the free throw line, which is uncharacteristic for them considering they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the league.

The Raptors are 32-12 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Miami is 15-29 ATS after having won three of its last four games over the past two seasons.  Because they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall, the Raptors could not possibly be more undervalued right now.  Bet the Raptors in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Cavs/Hawks Game 3 No-Brainer on Atlanta +3.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers just set a record with 25 3-pointers in Game 2's blowout victory over the Atlanta Hawks.  They have made a whopping 40 3-pointers in the first two games of this series.  Look for the Hawks to make the proper adjustments so they Cavs don't continue beating them from outside.

I like the fact that this is a must-win for the Hawks, who cannot afford to fall behind 0-3 in this series.  They will be laying it all on the line to get a victory over the Cavaliers tonight, and I believe it will be good enough to get the job done.

The Hawks have gone 30-14 at home this season, including a perfect 3-0 in the playoffs.  They outscored the Celtics by a combined 45 points in their three home games last round.  It would have been more had the Celtics not made a ferocious comeback in Game 1 of that series.

Cleveland is 2-10 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more this season.  Atlanta is 8-1 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of their last six games this season.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Friday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -169

I don't often lay this big of juice in baseball, but I believe the New York Mets are more than worthy of it today as they take on the lowly San Diego Padres.  The Mets are playing as well as anyone right now as they are 15-4 in their last 19 games overall.

Jacob DeGrom looks to continue his dominant start to the season.  The right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.02 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in three starts this year.  He is also 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.250 WHIP in his lone career start against San Diego, giving up just two base runners in 8 innings of a 7-0 road victory last year.

Colin Rea is nowhere near on DeGrom's level for the Padres.  He is 2-1 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.557 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in two home starts.  The Padres are just 11-17 on the season and one of the worst teams in baseball.

DeGrom is 8-0 (+9.3 Units) against the money line against NL West opponents over the last two seasons.  DeGrom is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  Take this combined 20-0 system straight to the bank tonight.  Take the Mets Thursday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors -4.5

The Toronto Raptors represent my favorite play of the 2nd round in Game 2 against the Miami Heat tonight.  After losing Game 1 in overtime, this is now a must-win for the Raptors as they simply cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 in this series with the next two games in Miami.

After all, Toronto dominated Miami in the season series, winning each of the final three meetings for a 3-1 lead.  It won by 14 on the road, by 20 and by 8 at home over the Heat.  Look for the Raptors to get back to their domination given the situation, and also for the Heat to relax a little now that they've already won back home-court advantage in this series.

The difference is Game 1 was 3-point shooting.  The Heat shot 8-of-11 (72.7%) from distance, while the Raptors were just 5-of-21 (23.8%).  The Raptors are the much better 3-point shooting team, so look for the roles to be reversed in Game 2 and for the Heat to not be nearly as accurate as they were in Game 1.

Miami is 1-9 ATS in road games versus good teams who outscored opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Toronto is 32-11 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games following a road win.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

20* Hawks/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Atlanta +7.5

The Atlanta Hawks arguably should have won Game 1, but they found a way to lose by 11 after leading with just over 4 minutes to go.  They didn't make a field goal in those final four minutes until making a meaningless basket with 18 seconds left.

That effort gave them the belief that they can play with the Cavs, and now in Game 2 I look for them to take this one right down to the wire, likely pulling off the upset.  So I'll take the 7.5 points and run with it here.

They even managed to hang with the Cavs while shooting just 37.9% from the floor in Game 1.  They are a much better shooting team than they displayed in that contest, and nerves may have been a factor.  Look for them to come out with a more relaxed mindset now that this series is officially underway.  Bet the Hawks Wednesday.

15* MLB Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Angels -131

After losing the first two games of this series to the lowly Milwaukee Brewers, the Los Angeles Angels are highly motivated for a win in Game 3 this afternoon to avoid the sweep.  I believe they do just that and get a win here.

The Angels have a big edge on the mound behind Hector Santiago, who is 2-1 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in five starts this season.  Santiago is also 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts.

I'll gladly fade Zach Davies of the Brewers, who is 0-3 with an 8.78 ERA and 2.251 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has given up 13 earned runs and 30 base runners over just 13 1/3 innings pitched this year.

The Angels are 10-1 in Santiago's last 11 starts.  Los Angeles is 6-0 in Santiago's last six starts following a team loss in their previous game.  The Brewers are 12-44 in their last 56 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take the Angels Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Warriors Game 2 No-Brainer on Portland +10

The Portland Trail Blazers couldn't have played much worse against the Golden State Warriors in Game 1, yet they only lost by 12 points.  They played Game 1 only 36 hours after closing out the Clippers in their previous series, so they were at a big disadvantage.

But now that the Blazers have had some time to make adjustments behind one of the most underrated head coaches in the league in Terry Stotts, they will be much better prepared for Game 2 tonight.  Look for them to take the Curry-less Warriors down to the wire this time.

Portland is 17-8 ATS after allowing 110 points or more this season.  The Blazers are 29-16 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.  Plays against home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Bet the Blazers in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+102)

Any time Jake Arrieta takes the mound, it's a good idea to bet the Chicago Cubs on the Run Line.  Arrieta (5-0, 1.00 ERA this season) is 16-0 with a 0.69 ERA in 18 regular-season starts since last losing on July 25 of last season.

The Cubs have won 18 straight games in which Arrieta has started.  They have won 19 of his last 21 starts by 2 runs or more.  Arrieta is 7-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.779 WHIP in 10 career starts against Pittsburgh with his teams winning seven of those 10 starts by 2 runs or more.

Jon Niese isn't about to beat Arrieta today.  The left-hander has posted a 5.08 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in five starts this season for Pittsburgh.  Niese is 3-6 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in 10 career starts against Chicago.

Arrieta is 20-3 against the run line (+18.4 Units) in road games over the last two seasons with the Cubs winning by an average of 3.7 runs per game.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +8

The Oklahoma City Thunder were absolutely embarrassed in Game 1 of this series, losing to the Spurs 92-124 as absolutely nothing went their way.  Look for them to make the proper adjustments heading into Game 2 to counter a couple things that caught them by surprise in Game 1, including Kawhi Leonard guarding Russell Westbrook.

After all, this was a closely-contested season series during the regular season, so that 32-point blowout was an aberration.  These teams split the season series 2-2 with the Thunder only losing by 4 and 8 in their two trips to San Antonio.

The Spurs simply shot lights out in Game 1, which isn't going to happen again.  They shot 60.7% from the field and 60% from 3-point range.  LaMarcus Aldridge was a ridiculous 18-of-23, while Kawhi Leonard was 10-of-13 and Danny Green was 6-of-7.  A repeat of that would be virtually impossible.

Plays against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1996.  The Thunder are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Spurs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Thunder in Game 2 Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -115

I like the value we are getting with the Kansas City Royals at home today.  They are only -115 favorites because they have lost five of their last six games coming in, but that will have them even more motivated for a victory today, which works in our favor.

The Royals are 8-3 at home this season and now return home following that tough 6-game road trip.  Edinson Volquez has been virtually untouchable at home this season, going 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in three starts.  Volquez is 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA in his last two starts against Washington, giving up just two earned runs in 12 1/3 innings.

Gio Gonzalez is way overvalued right now due to his 1.42 ERA in four starts this season.  But his competition couldn't have been any softer as he's faced the Phillies (twice), Braves and Twins.  Gonzalez is 3-3 with a 7.26 ERA and 1.841 WHIP in eight career starts against Kansas City.

The Royals are 8-0 in Volquez's last eight interleague starts, and 10-0 in his last 10 home starts with a price range of -100 to -150.  Kansas City is 17-4 in Volquez's last 21 home starts as well.  Gonzalez is 2-13 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last three seasons.  Take the Royals Monday.

20* Pacers/Raptors Game 7 No-Brainer on Indiana +6

The way the Pacers have played in these last three games with their season on the line, I simply trust them more in Game 7 than the Raptors.  I'll gladly back them as 6-point underdogs in a game that they will likely win outright tonight.

The Pacers should have won each of the last three games, and they won two of them in blowout fashion.  They won by 17 and 18 at home in Game 4 and Game 6, respectively.  But they blew a huge fourth quarter lead to lose 102-99 in Game 5.  They could have folded in Game 6 after that meltdown, but I love the resilience they showed.

The Pacers have clearly figured something out offensively.  They shot 47.1% in Game 4, 45.2% in Game 5 and 46.1% in Game 6.  The Raptors, meanwhile, shot 36.5% in Game 4, 40.2% in Game 5, and 36.7% in Game 6.  So the Pacers have clearly figured something out defensively as well.

The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Raptors are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 Conference Quarterfinals games.  Indians is 20-7 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are highly motivated for a victory here Sunday to put an end to a 6-game losing streak.  Now they send ace Clayton Kershaw to the mound to do the dirty work, and I believe they win this game by multiple runs over the San Diego Padres today.

Kershaw has been dominant again this season, going 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.811 WHIP in five starts.  The left-hander has owned the Padres, going 13-6 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in 28 career starts against them.  Kershaw has gone 5-0 in his last eight starts against the Padres while allowing seven earned runs, 25 hits, 13 walks while recording 75 strikeouts in 55 1/3 innings.

Drew Pomeranz has pitched well at home for San Diego, but he's just 1-2 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three road starts this season.  Pomeranz is also 0-2 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in four career starts against Los Angeles.

Pomeranz is 0-7 (-9.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons, with his teams losing by 2.0 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a real threat to the Spurs to win this series.  They might be the biggest sleepers in the West.  Everyone is talking about the Warriors and Spurs, which leaves a chip on the shoulder of the Thunder.

The Thunder actually went 2-2 against the Spurs this season with one of their two losses coming by 4 points.  In Game 1 of this series, the Thunder are ready to make a statement and let the Spurs know this is going to be a long series.  I like them getting 6.5 points as a result.

The Thunder are 23-9 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better since 1996.  The Spurs are 3-11 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Thunder are 24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 Saturday games.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Thunder in Game 1 Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -108

The Miami Marlins have been on an absolute tear on the road here of late.  They've won six straight road games and they aren't ready for this streak to end.  They'll still be on a mission to extend the streak to 7 today against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Wei-Yin Chen is the new ace of the staff for the Marlins.  He's done a good job thus far, going 1-1 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 4 starts, including 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his lone road start.

Chase Anderson has not fared well with the Brewers this season.  He is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in 4 starts, including 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in two home starts.

Miami is 8-2 (+7.9 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive road games this season.  The Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 road games.  The Brewers are 0-7 in their last 7 Saturday games.  Milwaukee is 1-6 in its last 7 games overall.  Bet the Marlins Saturday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Astros/A's OVER 7.5

I really like the OVER 7.5 in this game between the Houston Astros and Oakland A's tonight.  For starters, the wind is expected to be blowing out to right-center at a rate of 16 miles per hour at the start of this game, eventually 'calming' down to 12 MPH by the conclusion.

Mike Fiers has really struggled in the early going for the Astros.  He is 2-1 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in four starts this season, and sports a 9.00 ERA in his lone road start this year.  Fiers has given up 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings in his last two starts against Oakland.

Sean Manaea will be making his season debut for the A's tonight.  The left-hander will be trying to turn around a stretch where the A's have gone 1-5 in their last six games with their starters giving up 11 homers and a 6.61 ERA during that span.

The OVER is 5-1 in Fiers' last six starts.  The OVER is 11-3 in Astros last 14 road games.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in A's last eight games overall.  The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Oakland.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Heat/Hornets Game 6 No-Brainer on Miami +2

The Miami Heat are a veteran bunch who will not be intimidated by an elimination game on the road.  Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson have all been here before, and I look for them to rally the troops and force a Game 7 with a win tonight.

After shooting 18 of 34 from beyond the arc in the first two games of this series, the Heat have shot just 33.3 percent from distance after going 5-of-18 in Game 5.  That cold shooting is unlikely to continue, and these players know that they just need to stay the course and have a little better fortune late in games after losing the last two contest by a combined 6 points.

"I think we've got the looks we've wanted in the series," Miami guard Josh Richardson said. "We've just got to stay aggressive. We can't play any different because it hasn't fallen our way."

The Hornets haven't won a playoff series in 14 years, and this young group isn't ready to do it tonight.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Friday.

20* Hawks/Celtics Game 6 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 198

This series continues to get lower-scoring as it goes on.  Three of the last four games between the Celtics and Hawks have seen less than 200 combined points, including 161 in Game 2 and 193 in Game 5.

These teams are so familiar with one another by now that points are so hard to come by.  Both teams are struggling to score the basketball as the Celtics have shot less than 38% in three of the five games, while the Hawks have shot less than 41% in three of the five.

If you don't count overtime in Game 4, then these teams have averaged well less than 198 combined points at the end of regulation in this series.  They have averaged 191 combined points at the end of regulation in the five points, so that alone shows that there's at least 7 points of value on the UNDER here.

Atlanta is 13-1 to the UNDER in its last 14 games when attempting to close out a playoff series.  Atlanta is 20-6 to the UNDER in its last 26 when leading in a playoff series.  Boston is 22-7 to the UNDER vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -121

The Chicago White Sox are way overvalued right now due to their 6-game winning streak coming into this series with the Baltimore Orioles.  They are coming off back-to-back sweeps of the Rangers and Blue Jays, and now they are primed for a letdown here tonight in Game 1 against Baltimore.

Chicago now has to send its worst starter to the mound in John Danks, and I'll gladly fade him all day.  Danks is 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.6165 WHIP in three starts this season.  That's right, he's responsible for 3 of the White Sox 6 losses all season.

Tyler Wilson got the win in his season debut on April 23, limiting the Royals to 3 runs and 6 base runners over 5 innings of an 8-3 victory in Kansas City.  Wilson should have no trouble shutting down a White Sox lineup that is hitting just .238 and scoring 3.7 runs per game on the season.

Danks is 5-21 (-15.7 Units) against the money line vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game in his career.  The White Sox are 5-16 in Danks' last 21 road starts, and 0-6 in his last six starts overall.  The Orioles are 17-5 in their last 22 home games.  Chicago is 3-8 in its last 11 trips to Baltimore.  Take the Orioles Thursday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat -6

The Miami Heat will roll in Game 5 at home to regain control of this series.  The home team has won all four meetings, including two blowout victories by the Heat with a 123-91 triumph in Game 1 and a 115-103 beat down in Game 2.

Dwyane Wade was in college the last time the Charlotte Hornets won a road playoff game, while Kemba Walker was still in grade school.  Charlotte is 2-19 in its last 21 trips to Miami, including playoffs.  The Heat have shot 54.7 percent from the floor and averaged 112 points in four meetings at AmericanAirlines Arena this season.

The Heat are 13-2 in their last 15 postseason home games with their only two losses coming to San Antonio in the 2014 NBA Finals.  Charlotte has dropped nine straight playoff games on the road with its last road victory coming in the opening round back in 2002.

Charlotte is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games following two consecutive wins against division rivals.  Miami is 9-1 ATS in home games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Miami.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Rangers OVER 9

Two of the worst starting pitchers in baseball square off tonight when the New York Yankees take on the Texas Rangers in Game 3 of this series.  These teams combined for 11 runs last night, and I look for them to even top that total tonight as this game goes well OVER the 9-run total.

C.C. Sabathia is washed up and simply cannot recover.  The left-hander is 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.825 WHIP through three starts this season, twice not even making it through five innings.  Sabathia has posted a 5.10 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 22 career starts against Texas.  He faced the Rangers twice last season, giving up 11 earned runs in 7 2/3 innings.

Martin Perez isn't much better, going 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in four starts this season.  He gave up 5 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in his last start against the White Sox.  In his only career start against the Yankees last season, Perez gave up 8 earned runs in 1 inning of a 5-21 loss.

The OVER is 8-0 in Sabathia's last eight starts vs. Texas, including 4-0 in his last four road starts.  The OVER is 8-2 in Rangers last 10 road games.  The OVER is 7-3 in Sabathia's last 10 road starts.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -119

The Chicago White Sox have been one of the best teams in baseball through the first three weeks of the season.  They currently sit at 14-6 after winning six of their last seven games overall, including yesterday's come-from-behind 7-5 win over the Blue Jays.

Look for the White Sox to continue rolling behind ace Chris Sale tonight.  The left-hander is 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.667 WHIP through four starts this season.  Sale is also 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.870 WHIP in three career starts against Toronto, winning each of his last two against them.

R.A. Dickey is one of the worst starters in baseball.  The knuckleballer is 1-2 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.693 WHIP through four starts this season.  Dickey certainly hasn't enjoyed facing the White Sox, going 2-4 with a 7.50 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Chicago is 11-2 (+8.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  Toronto is 0-6 (-7.9 Units) against the money line after two straight games where they committed no errors this season.  Chicago is 8-0 (+8.9 Units) against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.  The White Sox are 5-0 in Sale's last five starts, while the Blue Jays are 1-4 in Dickey's last five starts.  Take the White Sox Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Raptors Game 5 No-Brainer on Toronto -6.5

The Toronto Raptors are ready to win their first playoff series in a long time.  They have the team to do it this year, and this all-important Game 5 at home will help them accomplish their goal.  Look for the Raptors to roll tonight.

They have been the better team in this series despite poor performances from their two best players in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.  Lowry is averaging 15.5 points on 32.2 percent shooting, while DeRozan is at 13.3 points and 29.6 percent in the series.  Just imagine what they'll be able to do once these two get going.

DeRozan ranked third in the league in free-throw attempts during the regular season, but he has only attempted 15 in the series compared to 36 for Paul George.  Head coach Paul Casey has made a point of pointing out the poor officiating, and now I look for the Raptors to get more calls, especially playing at home in Game 5.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Raptors in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -123

This is an excellent price to get the Boston Red Sox tonight.  They are up against arguably the worst team in baseball in the Atlanta Braves, who are 4-14 on the season.  The Braves have hit 3 homers all season and have gone two weeks without hitting a homer.  They are slugging .282 as a team.

Rick Porcello will be asked to go deep into this game with the bullpen thin right now, and that shouldn't be a problem.  Porcello is 3-0 with a 4.66 ERA and 0.931 WHIP through three starts this season with 24 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings.

Julio Teheran is off to the worst start of his career for the Braves, going 0-2 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.388 WHIP in four starts.  Teheran was beaten badly by the Red Sox in his lone start against them last season, giving up 6 earned runs and 14 base runners in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-9 loss.

Porcello is 15-4 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game in his career.  The Red Sox are 104-45 in their last 149 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.  Boston is 70-31 in its last 101 vs. NL East opponents.  The Red Sox are 6-1 in Porcello's last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Braves are 18-45 in their last 63 games overall.  Atlanta is 0-7 in its last seven home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Braves are 4-22 in their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Take the Red Sox Monday.

 20* Heat/Hornets Game 4 No-Brainer on Charlotte -2

The Charlotte Hornets ended a 12-game playoff losing streak with their 96-80 win over the Heat in Game 3.  Now that they have that huge monkey off their back, I look for them to relax a little and play another great game tonight as they are much looser than they have been in the playoffs for a long time.

We saw the same thing happen with the Raptors and Celtics.  The Raptors ended a 7-game playoff skid with a win in Game 2, and proceeded to play their best game of the series in Game 3 in a 101-85 road win.  The Celtics ended a 7-game playoff losing streak with a Game 3 victory over the Hawks, and then came back and won Game 4 in overtime as well.

Charlotte made a nice adjustment by giving 7-footer Frank Kaminsky more minutes and more touches on the block in Game 3.  Kaminsky had played less than 20 points in each of the first two games, but logged 34 minutes in Game 3 as he started alongside Al Jefferson.  That combination worked and I look for head coach Steve Clifford to go back to it.

Charlotte is one of the best home teams in the NBA with a 31-11 record at home, and it has won four of its last five home meetings with the Heat.  Miami has lost six of its last eight road games.  Miami is 1-10 ATS in road games vs. teams who score 103-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Charlotte is 12-3 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.  The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Hornets are 22-7 ATS in home games vs. teams with winning records in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.  Bet the Hornets in Game 4 Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics really believe they can come back and win this series.  They gained a lot of confidence from their Game 3 win over the Hawks.  They led that game by double-digits for most of the first half, but saw their lead completely vanish before rallying to win it in the 4th quarter behind 42 points from Isaiah Thomas.

The good news is that Thomas is probable and not expected to get suspended from his hit on Dennis Schroeder.  He is the key to this team and clearly figured something out in Game 3 as the Celtics made the proper adjustments on how he should attack this defense.

The Celtics are 20-3 in their last 23 home games, a stretch which saw them sport the fourth-best home record in the NBA in the second half of the season.  Getting them as only 2-point favorites is a gift from oddsmakers today.

Atlanta is 16-34 ATS in its last 50 road playoffs games.  Boston is 7-0 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of its last six games this season.  It is winning by an average of 11.6 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Celtics Saturday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -102

The Miami Marlins will be highly motivated to avoid the 3-game sweep at the hands of the San Francisco Giants today.  They have lost the first two games of this series the past two days, but I believe they'll get Game 3 to salvage it.

This is more of a fade of Matt Cain than anything.  The right-hander is 0-2 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has given up 9 earned runs and 4 homers over 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Marlins as well.

Cain is 16-31 (-18.5 Units) against the money line in April games in his career.  The Giants are 0-6 in their last six during game 3 of a series.  San Francisco is 1-10 in Cain's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Marlins Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami Marlins -122

Any time I get the chance to back Jose Fernandez as a small favorite I'm probably going to take advantage.  That's especially the case today considering he's up against the washed-up Jake Peavy of the San Francisco Giants.

Fernandez has been lights out to start his career, going 23-10 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in four seasons.  He comes in having allowed exactly one earned run in each of his last two starts in 2016.

Peavy has scuffled to say the least this season.  He's 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in three starts, allowing 14 earned runs and 28 hits through 14 innings of work.  The Giants have lost eight of their last 10 games overall and are scuffling at the plate as well.

Peavy is 31-60 (-24.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 in his career.  Plays against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a cold starting pitcher;  (7.50 ERA or worse) over his last 3 starts, with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 10 games are 80-29 (73.4%, +41 units) over the last five seasons.  The Marlins are 8-0 in Fernandez's last eight Saturday starts.  Miami is 10-1 in Fernandez's last 11 starts vs. NL West opponents.  Roll with the Marlins Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5

The loss to the Mavericks in Game 2 really woke up the Thunder.  They won't let it happen again, and I expect Game 4 to play out just as Game 1 and Game 3 did, with the end result being a double-digit blowout victory for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City has won six of its last seven meetings with Dallas.  It has won four of the last six meetings by 13 points or more.  It won by 38 points at home in Game 1 and by 29 points on the road in Game 3.  It took a 33.7% shooting effort as a team for the Thunder to let the Mavs hang around and steal one in Game 2.  That's not going to happen again.

Plays against home teams (DALLAS) - off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more, in April games are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1996.  The Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Oklahoma City is 23-8-2 ATS in its last 33 Saturday games.  The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Thunder in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Heat/Hornets Game 3 No-Brainer on Charlotte -2

The Charlotte Hornets were quietly one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They went 30-11 on their home floor, and facing a must-win in Game 3 after falling behind 0-2, I'll back them to get a win and cover against the Miami Heat tonight.

There's no question that this was a one-sided series in Miami.  The Heat shot 57.6% while scoring 123 points in Game 1, and 57.9% while scoring 115 points in Game 2.  It's safe to say that they aren't going to continue this torrid shooting, especially since most of their offense comes from 1-on-1 stuff.

"You have to look at how they're scoring," he said. "They're not running sets that we're having trouble with coverages on. It's one-on-one stuff. It's as simple as this: If Dwyane Wade's got room, he's getting in the paint against anybody."

Look for Clifford to make the proper adjustments heading into Game 3 that will turn this series around for the Hornets and have them avoid their 13th straight playoff loss.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Hornets in Game 3 Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3

It's now or never for the Boston Celtics after falling behind 0-2 in this series to the Atlanta Hawks.  Look for them to come out with a big sense of urgency and to put away the Atlanta Hawks in Game 3, which is their first home game of the series.

The Celtics have dug themselves early holes in each of the first two games.  They shot 23.1 percent and fell behind 17 at halftime before rallying to lose by 1 in Game 1.  They then turned in the lowest-scoring first quarter in playoff history and fell behind 7-24 after the first period in Game 2.

Behind the help of their home fans, look for the Celtics to come out attacking from the opening tip.  A better start is going to help give this team confidence as they try and end a 7-game playoff losing streak.  After all, they are 19-3 at home since January 13, which is the fourth-best home mark in that span.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 69-36 (65.7%) ATS since 1996.  Atlanta is 16-33 ATS in its last 49 road playoff games.  Boston is 32-15 ATS in its last 47 games after scoring 75 points or less in its previous game.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -123

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back ace Justin Verlander as a small home favorite.  But that's the opportunity that's been presented to us today, and we'll take advantage.

Verlander has gotten off to a shaky start in 2016 after finishing very strong after the All-Star Break last year.  He's too good of a talent to be held down for long, and I look for him to have a big performance today to lead the Tigers to victory.

Josh Tomlin is getting way too much respect from odddsmakers as his makes just his second start this season.  Tomlin has posted a 4.62 ERA in 96 appearances over his seven years in the big leagues.  Tomlin is 2-4 with a 5.66 ERA in six career starts against Detroit as well.

The Tigers are 40-19 in Verlander's last 59 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Detroit is 6-1 in Verlander's last seven starts after scoring 2 runs or less in its previous game.  The Indians are 18-44 in their last 62 meetings in Detroit.  Take the Tigers Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh Pirates -137

After losing the first two games of this series to the Padres, the Pirates are going to be highly motivated for a win in Game 3 to avoid the sweep.  I'll back them at a great price here to do just that with ace Gerrit Cole on the mound.

Cole is still in search of his first victory this season despite a respectable 4.22 ERA and 1.218 WHIP through two starts.  He should have no problem getting it against a team he has owned.  Indeed, Cole is 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA in three career starts against San Diego.

Pittsburgh is 27-8 (+17.7 Units) against the money line against NL West opponents over the last two seasons.  Cole is 17-3 (+12.8 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 9-1 in Coles last 10 starts vs. National League West opponents.  Pittsburgh is 36-16 in Cole's last 52 starts overall.  Take the Pirates Thursday.

20* Raptors/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -1

A massive weight has been lifted from the Toronto Raptors' shoulders.  They put an end to a 7-game playoff losing streak with their 98-87 win over the Pacers in Game 2.  Now that they have that monkey off their back, look for it to free them up as they get back to playing the way they played during the regular season, which was the second-best team in the East.

I feel like Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan felt that weight the most because they actually haven't played well in the first two games of this series.  Lowry has shot 7 for 26 while fell All-Star DeRozan has gone 10 for 37.  It's been the role players who have played great for the Raptors.  But I have a sneaky suspicion that both Lowry and DeRozan are going to go off now.

The Pacers simply do not have an answer for Jonas Valanciunas down low, either.  He had a franchise playoff-record 19 rebounds in Game 1, and he followed that up with a playoff career-high 23 points and 15 rebounds in Game 2.  He is really the X-factor in this series.

Toronto has the third-best road record in the NBA this season at 24-17 away from home.  The Raptors are 41-20 ATS in their last 61 meetings with the Pacers, including an impressive 8-1 (89%) ATS in their last nine trips to Indiana.  Bet the Raptors in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Pistons/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Detroit +10.5

The Detroit Pistons are showing excellent value once again as double-digit underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  I was on them in Game 1 with success, and I'm backing them again today for many of the same reasons.

The Pistons proved that their 3-1 season series win over the Cavaliers was no fluke by hanging with them for four quarters in Game 1 in a 101-106 loss as 11-point dogs.  They actually led that game 58-53 at halftime and shot 50.7% for the game.

Detroit simply matches up well with Cleveland.  The Cavs have no answer for Andre Drummond, and the Pistons have the wings in Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris to throw at Lebron James and keep him in check.  The Pistons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Cleveland.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 150-95 (61.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Cavaliers are 26-54-1 ATS in their last 81 vs. NBA Central opponents.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.