15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Maryland -3

This is a very generous price to get the Maryland Terrapins tonight in their Big Ten opener.  The Terrapins are off to a 12-1 start this season, and while they're down a notch from last season, they still have loads of talent.  And they continue to be overlooked by oddsmakers.

The Illinois Fighting Illini are improved at 10-3 on the season.  They have won six straight coming in and are getting too much respect for it.  When they took a step up in class against WVU (lost by 32) and Florida State (lost by 11), they didn't fare well.  And they also lost at home to Winthrop earlier this season.

But the biggest reason I like Maryland here is because Illinois hasn't played a true road game all season.  That's right, it's December 27th and they haven't tasted what a hostile road atmosphere feels like.  I think they'll be in over their heads here against the Terrapins, who beat Illinois 81-55 at home last season.

Illinois is 10-22 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 72% of their attempts or better over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.  The Terrapins are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.  Roll with Maryland Tuesday.

20* Temple/Wake Forest Military Bowl No-Brainer on Wake Forest +12

There are a ton of factors working in Wake Forest's favor coming into this bowl game.  I think there's a ton of value in backing them as 12-point underdogs here in the Military Bowl.  In fact, it's probably one of my favorite plays of the bowl season.

For starters, the Demon Deacons are going to be extremely excited to be here.  They haven't been to a bowl game since 2011.  When they clinched their bowl berth in a win over Virginia in their ninth game of the season, they didn't exactly play well down the stretch in losing their final three games of the season.  But I think that also has them undervalued as they come in on a 3-game losing streak.

When you look at the teams they faced down the stretch, it's easy to see why they lost three straight.  They lost 12-44 against Louisville, but covered as 34-point dogs.  And that game was way closer than the final score as the Demon Deacons actually led in the 4th quarter before getting outscored 34-0 in a fluky final period.

The Demon Deacons also lost 13-35 at home to Clemson, covering as 23.5-point dogs though.  And they lost 14-17 at home to Boston College in the season finale.  But the Eagles had more to play for in that game as they were looking for their 6th win and bowl eligibility.  But the Demon Deacons should have won that game as they outgained the Eagles by 120 yards and held them to just 167 yards of total offense.

Temple does not want to be here.  Their reward for winning the AAC Championship over Navy? How about a repeat trip to Annapolis, Maryland to face a 6-6 Wake Forest team.  That's right, the AAC title game was also played in Annapolis.  This isn't exactly the most exciting city for a college kid to visit, especially for a second time in as many games.

The Owls also lost their head coach in Matt Rhule to Baylor.  We saw how that worked out for Houston already this bowl season after losing Tom Herman.  The interim coach is Ed Foley, who is the special teams and tight ends coach.  The Owls will be moving on to Geoff Collins next season, who was the defensive coordinator at Florida this season.  This is a huge distraction for these players, especially the non-seniors who will be coming back next year.  Rhule was certainly beloved with what he was able to do with this program.

Another reason I like fading Temple here is because the betting public has been all over them, and they've been rewarded.  In fact, the Owls have the best ATS record in the nation at 12-1.  They have covered in 12 straight games since a loss to Army in the opener.  The oddsmakers have over-adjusted for that, knowing that the public is going to continue riding Temple in this game.

Points are going to be at a premium in this game.  That's evident with a total set of 40.5 points.  That favors the underdog as both of these teams have great defenses.  Wake Forest will be able to hang around in this game behind a defense that gives up just 21.8 points and 370 yards per game this season against a much tougher slate than what Temple was up against.

The Demon Deacons have some standouts on defense in junior DL Duke Ejiofor, senior LB Marquel Lee and freshman S Jessie Bates.  Eliofor and Lee combined for 34 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks this season.  Bates finished second on the team in tackles to Lee.  He led all FBS freshmen in interceptions, interception returns yards and INT return touchdowns and was named to the Freshman All-American Team.

Wake Forest is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  The Demon Deacons are 9-2 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  Wake Forest is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  With all of the motivational edges in this game favoring the Demon Deacons, this is a contest that they could win outright.  Bet Wake Forest in the Military Bowl.

15* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver Nuggets -1

The Denver Nuggets want revenge from a 102-119 loss at Los Angeles just six days ago on December 20th.  They were in a tough spot that day as they were playing the second of a back-to-back.  They proceeded to blow an 8-point lead in the final two minutes against the Hawks their next time out, so it's safe to say they will be highly motivated here.

This time around, it's the Clippers in the tough spot.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days here.  They have lost to the Mavericks 88-90 and the Lakers 102-111 in their last two games, and a big reason for that is all the injuries they are dealing with right now.

Chris Paul is expected to miss this game after sitting out against the Lakers.  Blake Griffin remains out, and J.J. Redick just suffered a hamstring injury against the Lakers and is doubtful.  The short-handed, tired Clippers have no chance of hanging with the motivated, well-rested Nuggets who will be playing on two days' rest tonight.  Take the Nuggets Monday.

25* Lions/Cowboys MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on OVER 44.5

I think the best bet on this game is the OVER, and I'm clearly not the only one as this total has been bet up from 41.5 to 44.5 already.  But I still don't think it's enough.  These teams will be playing in perfect conditions inside AT&T Stadium, so scoring will be plentiful.  And I think these are two of the most overrated defenses in the NFL.

The only reason the Cowboys have decent defensive numbers is because they have controlled the time of possession with their dominant offense.  But the Cowboys give up 5.6 yards per play this season, which is 19th in the NFL.  The Lions give up 5.8 yards per play, which is 25th in the NFL.  These aren't good defenses.

The Lions don't have a good running game, but Stafford will be primed for a huge day against a Cowboys defense that gives up 68.4 percent completions, 265 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt this season.  The Cowboys ranks 2nd in rushing offense at 154.5 yards per game, and they should have a huge day on the ground against a Lions defense that gives up 4.2 yards per carry, which ranks tied for 16th in the NFL.

The Lions have been padding their stats defensively against some awful quarterbacks.  In their last 11 games, they have faced Brian Hoyer, Carson Wentz, Case Keenum, Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford (twice), Blake Bortles, Drew Brees, Matt Barkley and Eli Manning.  Only two of those guys are having good seasons in Cousins and Brees.  The Lions haven't seen an offense as potent as the Cowboys, which averages 26.1 points per game overall, including 27.3 points per game at home.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  We've seen 44 or more combined points in all six meetings.  The Cowboys and Lions are averaging 58.0 combined points in those six contests, which is nearly 14 points more than this posted total.  A big reason for that is because both of these teams play in domes, so the conditions are always perfect.

Dallas is 46-19 OVER in its last 65 home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better.   I think we're getting a ton of value here on the OVER because the Lions have gone under the total in eight straight, while the Cowboys have gone under in three straight coming in.  The oddsmakers have over-adjusted for it. We'll see a shootout here Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +13

The Phoenix Suns just played the Houston Rockets five days ago on December 21st in a 111-125 home loss.  The Rockets shot 18-of-38 from 3-point range and aren't likely to hit at that kind of clip again.  I look for the Suns to be out for revenge in this rematch just five days later.

And the Suns were 6-point home dogs in the first meeting, and now they're 13-point dogs in the rematch in Houston. That is a ton of extra value because the Suns actually tend to play better on the road because they have a very small home-court advantage.  And they are definitely better ATS on the road because they are consistently catching big numbers.

Plays against home favorites (HOUSTON) - after allowing 100 points or more four straight games against opponent after three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games playing on 2 days rest.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is a perfect 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Suns won 124-115 as 12.5-point dogs and 117-102 as 7.5-point dogs in their last two trips to Houston.  Phoenix is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 trips to Houston dating back further.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* NC State/Vanderbilt Independence Bowl No-Brainer on Vanderbilt +4.5

I really like the way that Vanderbilt finished the season as it put everything it had into becoming bowl eligible. That was a huge win over Tennessee for Derek Mason in his third season here, and the trip to a bowl game likely saved his job. These players will be ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game after missing out each of the past two years, so you know you’re going to get a big effort from them.

The Commodores certainly saved their best football for last. They won their final two games by beating Ole Miss 38-17 as 10-point home dogs and Tennessee 45-34 as 7.5-point home dogs. Wins over programs of that caliber are no small feat, and Vanderbilt also beat the likes of Western Kentucky and Georgia earlier this season, while also playing Auburn to a 7-point game on the road. They only lost by double-digits once this season, so they were competitive in basically every game.

While Vanderbilt beat four teams with winning records this season, NC State only beat two such teams. One was against Old Dominion, and the other was against a deflated UNC team in the season finale that had no shot at going to the ACC title game after losing the previous week. The Wolfpack simply took advantage of that spot and beat their rivals when they were the more motivated team because they needed the win to get to a bowl.

Let’s talk a little more about how well Vanderbilt played down the stretch. It scored a combined 83 points over the final two games as junior running back Ralph Webb piled up 237 yards and five touchdowns on 41 carries. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur threw for a career-high 416 yards in the win over Tennessee, and totaled four touchdown passes in his finale two games.

So not only is Vanderbilt’s offense hitting its stride, but the defense was one of the better units in the stacked SEC. The Commodores only allowed 22.6 points per game this season, holding opponents to 8.4 points per game less than their season averages. This defense should be able to limit NC State’s offense, which averaged a mediocre 25.8 points per game during the regular season and was inconsistent all year.

NC State is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 games off a road win over a conference opponent. Derek Mason is 12-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better as the coach of Vanderbilt. Dave Doeren is 5-15 ATS vs. teams who allow 58% completions or more as the coach of NC State. The Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  The SEC supremacy reigns true in this game, too.  Bet Vanderbilt in the Independence Bowl.

15* Miami/Miss State St. Petersburg Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State -13

I certainly want to give Miami Ohio credit for making a bowl game after the 0-6 start. The Redhawks clearly wanted to make a bowl, and they will be excited to be here. However, I just don’t see any way they can be competitive against Mississippi State, which I would argue is probably the best team that they will have played all season.

Certainly you could argue that Iowa was the best team that they played, but I would say it’s pretty close. And Miami lost to Iowa 21-45. I think we will see a similar margin in this game against a Bulldogs team that really got better as the season progressed.

It’s worth noting that Miami Ohio only beat two bowl teams this season, and that was Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan, two mediocre teams in the MAC. The talent difference in this game is massive as the Bulldogs will have better athletes on the field at almost every position.

Mississippi State beat two really good teams down the stretch. They won 35-28 over Texas A&M as 10-point underdogs, and then saved their best performance for last in a 55-20 win at Ole Miss as 10-point dogs. The Bulldogs racked up 566 total yards on the Rebels, including 457 rushing.

The Bulldogs really picked it up offensively in the second half of the season, averaging more than 45 points in the five games that weren’t against No. 1 Alabama. Freshman sensation Nick Fitzgerald led the SEC in total offense with 3,530 yards, 1,243 on the ground, while accounting for 35 total touchdowns (21 passing, 14 rushing).

Fitzgerald rushed for at least 100 yards in five of six second-half contests, including 258 against Ole Miss. He is bigger than basically every linebacker at Miami Ohio and will be tough to tackle.  Fitzgerald has two elite targets on the outside to get the ball to. Senior Fred Ross caught 68 balls for 873 yards and 12 touchdowns, while junior Donald Gray had 39 receptions for 691 yards and five scores.

Plays against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI OHIO) – off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 29-4 (87.9%) ATS since 1992.

Dan Mullen is 13-4 ATS in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of Mississippi State. After playing in the rugged SEC West this season, the Bulldogs will welcome this cupcake opponent and make easy work of them in the St. Petersburg Bowl.   This is going to be a physical mismatch in favor of the Bulldogs, and that will be reflected on the scoreboard.  Take Mississippi State in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

15* Broncos/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver +3

The Chiefs are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL. They have the raw numbers of a team that should be 4-10 instead of 10-4. They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 43.7 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse than them in this category, so they are in some pretty terrible company.

The Chiefs have been outgained in six of their last seven games overall. They have been outgained by a total of 619 yards in their last seven games. One of those was their fluke 30-27 (OT) win at Denver. They were outgianed by 191 yards by the Broncos in that contest. Their offense averaged just 3.3 yards per play while the Broncos averaged 6.7 yards per play in that contest. There’s no way the Chiefs should have won that game.

Now the Broncos are going to be out for revenge here in the rematch less than a month later. They are playing for their season right now as they have to win out to have a chance to make the playoffs. They will be the more motivated team as a result, and there’s no question they are the better team in my mind when you look at the numbers.

While the Chiefs have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, the Broncos have arguably the best defense. They rank 2nd in total defense at 310.9 yards per game and 1st in passing defense at 183.0 yards per game. They are also 4th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game allowed. The Chiefs certainly don’t have the playmakers to scare them here.

The Chiefs have no home-field advantage. They are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. That includes recent upset losses to the Bucs as 7-point home favorites and the Titans as 6-point home favorites. And home-field has meant nothing in this series, either. The road team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS int heir last seven trips to Kansas City.

Denver is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games when revenging a close loss against an opponent by 3 points or less. It is coming back to win 27.4 to 21.7 on average in this spot. The Broncos are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

20* Ravens/Steelers Christmas Day No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -5.5

I’ve been riding the Steelers with a ton of success in recent weeks and I’m going to continue to do so this week. Once again I believe they are being under-priced here by oddsmakers as only 5.5-point home favorites. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, and I have backed them in all five games.

The Steelers may be the best team in the NFL. They have outgained eight straight opponents, which is the sign of a dominant team. They have outgained their last five opponents during their winning streak by a combined 663 yards, which is an average of 132.6 yards per game. No team has been better than them during this stretch.

I think the fact that the game against the Bengals last week was close is providing some line value here. But that game wasn’t nearly as close as the final of 24-20 showed. The Steelers outgained the Bengals by 160 yards and should have won by more, but they were held to six field goals to start the game before finally getting into the end zone. It’s unlike them to struggle in the red zone like that, and I don’t expect it to happen again this week.

Mike Tomlin is 57-21 all-time at Heinz Field, and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 27 touchdowns and only six interceptions in his last eight home games. The Steelers are 4-2 at home this season, winning by 8.2 points per game. One of their losses came against the Patriots without Roethlisberger, and the other came against the Cowboys in a fluky result that was lost when they went 0-for-4 on 2-point conversions.

Everyone knows that the Steelers have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, but what is getting overlooked is how good this defense is playing. The Steelers are only allowing 14.0 points per game in their last five contests. They are also giving up just 250.0 total yards per game in their last five. They haven’t allowed more than 91 rushing yards in any of those five games, and they have held opponents to 219 passing yards or fewer in all five as well. This defense is playing as well as any in the NFL.

The Ravens are just 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS on the road this season. Their offense is scoring just 18.8 points per game and averaging 313 yards per game on the road. They have lost each of their last four road games with a 4-point loss to the Giants, an 8-point loss to the Jets, a 10-point loss to the Cowboys and a 7-point loss to the Patriots. So, they’ve struggled to even stay within a touchdown of teams on the road.

Pittsburgh wants revenge badly from losing four straight meetings with the Ravens. But that is skewed a bit because of injuries to the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger was a game-time decision in their 14-21 loss to the Ravens earlier this season. He was rusty, and the Ravens scored on a punt block TD and a 95-yard TD. It was the definition of a fluky result.

In another loss Michael Vick was their starting quarterback, and in another loss they had to pick up a running back off the streets on game week. The key for me is that the Steelers are a much different team now than when they played back on November 6th. They are hitting on all cylinders and playing their best football of the season. They are also as healthy as they have been all year.

The Ravens are dealing with some key injuries right now, including one to cornerback Jimmy Smith. He missed last week’s game against the Eagles and it’s unlikely he returns this week. He is their top cover corner, and it’s not even close. He has had success in the past against Antonio Brown, too, and if he doesn’t play it would be a massive loss for the Ravens.

The Steelers thrive this time of year, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 December games, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10. The Ravens are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 December games. Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

But my favorite trend of all is that the Steelers are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games when they are playing with same-season division revenge.  They have bounced back to cover the spread each of the last 11 times they have lost to an AFC North opponent in their first meeting of the season.  That's the sign of a resilient team, and I expect a huge effort from Pittsburgh here Sunday with the AFC North title at stake.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals Rematch on Golden State -2.5

The Golden State Warriors have had this game circled on their calendars every since they blew a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals to the Cavaliers.  They are going to want this game more, and I expect one of their best performances of the season because of it.

The difference in the rematch is now they have Kevin Durant, who has made the Warriors that much more dangerous.  They are off to a 27-4 start to the season and have been playing tremendous of late, winning seven straight, including four straight on the road.

I think the Cavaliers come in overvalued due to four straight victories themselves.  However, those four have come against the likes of the Lakers, Nets and Bucks (twice).  The Cavs will be without JR Smith for this one, and they'll certainly miss his shooting against the Warriors here.

Golden State is 10-1 ATS in road games off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Cavaliers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven Sunday games.  Bet the Warriors Sunday.

15* Celtics/Knicks ESPN Early Riser on UNDER 211.5

I think both the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks will be sleep-walking through the first part of this game Sunday that's set for a 12:00 EST tip.  Both offenses will struggle in the first half, which will help keep this total UNDER the posted number of 211.5.

Recent head-to-head history suggests that this number has been inflated.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 209 or fewer in five of those contests.  They have averaged 201.7 combined points per game in their last six meetings, which is roughly 10 points less than this 211.5-point total.

Boston is 14-4 UNDER off a home loss over the last two seasons.  New York is 13-4 UNDER in Sunday games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Celtics last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 25-9 in Celtics last 34 games playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 29-14 in Knicks last 43 games playing on two days' rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Bengals/Texans AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Houston +1

The Texans have plenty of motivation right now. If they win out they will win the division, and they even have a shot at a wild card if they don’t win out. But either way they should be focused despite the fact that they could lose this game and beat the Titans next week and win the division as well.

Houston beat Indianapolis 22-17 on the road two weeks ago, and showed a lot of heart in fighting back from a 13-0 deficit to beat the Jaguars last week. Brock Osweiler single-handedly dug them that 13-0 deficit with two interceptions in his own territory. Then he was replaced by Tom Savage, and the crowd erupted in cheers.

Savage fed off of the momentum and led the Texans back to a 21-20 victory. He finished 23 of 36 for 260 yards without an interception. And this game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score showed. The Texans outgained the Jaguars by 237 yards and held them to just 150 yards of total offense.

Now Savage is going to start again this week, and I think he can only be an upgrade over Osweiler, who the Texans have been winning in spite of. And the Texans are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to the Chargers a few weeks back, who were coming off their bye week, while the Texans were in a bad spot coming off a Monday Night Football game in Mexico City.

I really question Cincinnati’s motivation this week. The Bengals have already been eliminated from the playoffs with their heartbreaking loss to the Steelers last week. They led that game 20-6, but they were shut out in the second half and lost 20-24. Off such an emotional loss to their biggest rivals, and with the Ravens on deck, I don’t expect the Bengals to show up at all this week.  And they were outgained by 160 yards by the Steelers last week, so it wasn't as close as the final score.

The Bengals have some injury issues right now in which they could be extra cautious with given their standing. Tight end Tyler Eifert is out with a back injury, while LB Vontaze Burfict is out with a concussion.  WR AJ Green and RB Jeremy Hill are probable, but nowhere near 100%.  Don't be surprised if the Bengals are cautious with these two given they have nothing to play for.

The reason the Texans have been able to overcome their offensive woes this season for an 8-6 record is because of their defense, which now ranks 1st in the NFL in allowing just 306.5 yards per game. Most people don’t give this defense the credit it deserves because JJ Watt is out, but they really haven’t missed a beat. And as long as Tom Savage takes care of the ball better than Osweiler did before him, they will be just fine.

Cincinnati is 1-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Bengals are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. The Texans are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Bet the Texans Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver Nuggets -3.5

The Atlanta Hawks and Denver Nuggets are two teams headed in opposite directions.  The Hawks are just 5-13 SU & 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They just cannot seem to get on track, and they are getting way too much respect here as only 3.5-point road dogs.  They are playing without their center in Dwight Howard on Friday, too.

The Nuggets have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  All three wins came at home by double-digits, while the lone loss came on the road at the Los Angeles Clippers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  That was a tough spot and an understandable loss.

But the reason the Nuggets are playing so much better now is because they are as healthy as they've been all season.  There is no team with more depth than this Nuggets squad.  Gary Harris recently returned to the lineup and has provided a huge spark, averaging 12.8 points on 51.8% shooting, including 46.2% from 3-point range in just nine games this year.  The Nuggets have a ridiculous 10 players averaging at least 9.0 points per game, so they don't miss a beat when their bench comes in.

Home-court advantage has been huge between these teams.  The home team is 8-1 straight up in the last nine meetings.  Denver is 17-3 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games over the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days' rest.  Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +3.5

The Houston Rockets are way overvalued right now due to going 11-1 in their last 12 games overall.  Now they're being asked to lay 3.5 points on the road to one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

The Rockets just lost their starting center in Clint Capela two games ago with a broken fibula.  He averages 11.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.  They really missed him in a loss to the Spurs the other night, but they didn't miss him against the Suns, who are guard-oriented.

Capela's absence will really be in issue against the Grizzlies, who play their 'grit and grind', inside-out style.  Marc Gasol averages 20.1 points per game this season and will have a huge game in the paint.  The same can be said for Zach Randolph.

And the Grizzlies are now as healthy as they've been all season with the recent returns of Mike Conley, James Ennis, Vince Carter and Chandler Parsons.  They had all of these guys available against the Pistons on Wednesday, and they won 98-86 as 6-point road dogs despite playing the second of a back-to-back off an OT game.  It was a gutsy effort to say the least, and they will want to put the Rockets in their place tonight.

The Rockets rely more on the 3-pointer than any team in the NBA.  But the Grizzlies defend the 3-pointer better than most.  They allow an average of 9 made 3-pointers on 27 attempts per game at a 33.5% clip.  The Grizzlies only give up 93.9 points per game at home this year.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.4 points per 100 possessions.

Memphis is 32-12 ATS in its last 44 home games off a road win by 10 points or more.  The Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Memphis.  The Grizzlies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Roll with the Grizzlies Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -3

The Charlotte Hornets are in a great spot here.  They have had two days off since beating the Lakers at home on Tuesday, and they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.  They will be fresh and ready to go, and they don't play again until Monday, so they will be putting a lot into this game.

The Chicago Bulls are broken right now.  They are just 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall, yet they are getting massive respect from oddsmakers here as only 3-point dogs.  They rank dead last in the NBA in 3-point shooting, and they are also dead last in 4th quarter scoring.  They simply cannot get easy buckets.  And nothing comes easy against the Hornets, who rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings.  The only exception was a 102-96 road win by the Hornets last season.  The Hornets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with the Bulls, winning by an average of 17.3 points per game.  The Bulls haven't even come close to beating them, losing all three games by double-digits.  This is a very cheap price for the home team.  Take the Hornets Friday.

15* Auburn/UConn ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Connecticut -3.5

This is a great spot to fade the Auburn Tigers.  They are coming off a huge 74-70 upset win over Oklahoma as 4.5-point dogs on Wednesday night.  Now they have had just one day to get ready for UConn, and they this is clearly a letdown spot for them off that big win over the Sooners.

UConn has had four days off to get ready for Auburn after beating North Florida 80-59 on Sunday.  The Huskies will be ready to go, and they are an undervalued team right now because they are just 5-5 on the season.  They got off to a slow start but are playing much better of late, beating Syracuse 52-50 as 8-point dogs and narrowly losing at Ohio State 60-64 as 9.5-point dogs.

Auburn comes in overvalued off that win over Oklahoma that is part of its 9-2 start to the season.  But the Tigers have only played on true road game this season, which was a narrow 70-74 win at UAB.  This will clearly be the toughest atmosphere that the Tigers have played in this season, and I don't expect their young team to handle it very well, especially with only one day to prepare for the Huskies.

UConn is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  The Huskies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. SEC opponents.  Take Connecticut Friday.

20* EMU/ODU Bahamas Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 64

What a great honor it is for these kids from Eastern Michigan and Old Dominion to be playing in a bowl game.  These are two postseason strangers as the Monarchs have never played in a bowl game, while the Eagles will be making their first appearance in 29 years.

Not only do these teams get to play in a bowl game, but they get to go to one of the best bowl destinations there is.  They will be playing in the Bahamas in perfect 82 degree weather on Friday.  The scoring conditions are going to be ideal, which is why I really like the OVER in this game.

Not surprisingly, the Bahamas Bowl is no stranger to high-scoring affairs.  This is the third edition, and the first two went well OVER the total.  Western Michigan and Middle Tennessee combined for 76 points last year, and Western Kentucky and Central Michigan combined for 97 points in the first edition in 2014.  I think we'll see a similar result in this contest that sails well OVER the posted total of 64.

These are familiar foes as EMU and ODU played last season as well.  They scored 72 combined points at Eastern Michigan in a 38-34 victory for the Monarchs.  Both teams exceeded 400 yards of offense.  And these are two offense that certainly can put up points.

Old Dominion is putting up 36.0 points per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  The Monarchs boast electric quarterback David Washington, who is one of four FBS quarterbacks to have thrown for at least 25 touchdowns (28) with four or fewer interceptions (4).  Ray Lawry is a tremendous running back as well, rushing for 1,122 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Eastern Michigan averages 30.5 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  This offense has taken off since Brogan Roback took over.  He has thrown for 2,394 yards with 16 touchdowns this season.  Roback threw for 468 yards and three scores in the Eagles' bowl-clinching win over Ball State earlier this season.

Both of these defenses really struggled on the road this season.  Eastern Michigan gave up 35.2 points, 494 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play away from home.  Old Dominion allowed 33.5 points, 427 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the road as well.

Old Dominion is 10-1 to the OVER after playing three straight conference games over the last three seasons.  Eastern Michigan is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 19-7 in Eagles last 26 non-conference games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Monarchs last four vs. a team witha  winning record.  The OVER is 13-5-1 in Monarchs last 19 games overall.  Bet the OVER in the Bahamas Bowl Friday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -10

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to an 8-3 start this year with their three losses coming to Villanova, Northwestern and Xavier all on the road.  After losing to Xavier just 65-69 as 10-point dogs last time out, I look for them to bounce back with a blowout home victory against LSU tonight.

Wake Forest has played a road-heavy schedule and is certainly battle-tested at this point.  But the Demon Deacons have taken care of business when at home, going 4-0 while outscoring teams by 17.5 points per game on average.  John Collins (17.5 ppg, 10.8 rpg) is an absolute beast, and Bryant Crawford (13.7 ppg, 5.8 apg) and Keyshawn Woods (12.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.0 apg) have taken their games up a notch this year.

LSU is certainly a rebuilding team after all it lost last year.  The Tigers are off to an 8-2 start this season, but seven of their eight wins came at home against suspect competition.  They have played three neutral site games, beating Old Dominion 66-60, but getting blown out by both Wichita State (47-82) and VCU (74-85).  This will be the Tigers' first true road game of the season, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

LS is 4-16 ATS off a home win over the last two season.  The Tigers are 2-9 ATS in all road games over the last two seasons.  LSU is 1-10 ATS in road games versus good teams who outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  Bet Wake Forest Thursday.

15* Giants/Eagles NFC East ANNIHILATOR on New York -1.5

I simply trust the New York Giants more in this spot.  They have a lot more to play for right now.  They will be super motivated to punch their tickets to the playoffs with a win Thursday night.  It would be the first time in five seasons that they would make the postseason, so they couldn't possibly be more motivated right now.

For whatever reason, the Giants just don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  I think it's because the betting public doesn't flock to poor offensive teams like the Giants.  But defense wins championships as we've seen, and the Giants have won of the best in the business.

The Giants rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 17.9 points per game on the season.  They have held the Cowboys and Lions, two likely playoff teams, to a total of 13 points the past two weeks.  This defense just keeps getting better as the season has gone on.

The Eagles are a mess right now as they've lost seven of their last eight games overall.  Carson Wentz now has the second-worst passer rating in the NFL ahead of only Jared Goff.  And the defense has been atrocious, giving up at least 26 points in five straight and seven of their last eight contests.  The Giants should get their offense going this week, too.

New York is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 road games coming off two consecutive home wins.  Plays on road teams (NY GIANTS) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the last two weeks of the regular season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Giants Thursday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -5

The New York Knicks are undervalued right now because they have lost three of their last four games coming in.  But all three losses came on the road in the final three games of a 5-game trip, and they bounced back with a 118-111 home victory over Indiana in their first game back in New York on Tuesday.

There is an energy surrounding this Knicks team this year because they are finally relevant.  And the fans have shown up to show their support, which has aided them at home.  In fact, the Knicks are now 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  This is a very short price for them to be laying.

I think the price is short because while the Knicks are undervalued right now, the Magic are overvalued due to going 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have been beating up on some bad teams lately with their last three wins coming against the Heat, Nets and Hawks.  They were beaten by the Clippers and Raptors (by 30) in their two losses over their last five contests, both coming at home.

The Knicks are 11-2 ATS after allowing 110 points or more this season.  Orlando is 4-13 ATS in road games versus teams that win 51% to 60% of their games over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  The Magic are 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New York.  Take the Knicks Thursday.

15* Idaho/Colorado State Potato Bowl Total DOMINATOR on OVER 64.5

With how well Colorado State is playing, I’m tempted to take them, but I think the point spread is a bit inflated as a result. Instead, I’ll look to the total as I foresee a shootout between Colorado State and Idaho on the Blue Turf in Boise.

The reason both teams finished so strong this season is their offenses, not their defenses. The Rams averaged an impressive 47.4 points and 520.6 yards over their final five games. Quarterback Nick Stevens was the catalyst. He tossed 14 touchdowns against only one interception over the final six games. Standout receiver Michael Gallup caught eight of his 11 touchdowns after Stevens regained the starting job.

Idaho boasts an elite offense of its own. The Vandals scored at least 34 points in five of their final seven games, all of which resulted in victories. Junior quarterback Matt Linehan, who is the son of Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, has passes for 2,803 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Both of these defenses leave a lot to be desired. Colorado State gives up 27.8 points, 404 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. The Rams allowed 34.3 points and 452 yards per game on the road this season. The Vandals give up 29.7 points, 414 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play overall. They allow 34.3 points and 410 yards per game on the road as well.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (COLORADO ST) – in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP), in non-conference games are 34-8 (81%) over the last 10 seasons.  The final three Colorado State games saw 95, 80 and 94 combined points, which is an average of 89.7 points per game.  We don't need anywhere near that to get the OVER Thursday, but I think we'll get close.

Idaho is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 road games versus good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game. Idaho is 37-15 OVER in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 12-4 in Vandals last 16 non-conference games. The OVER is 4-1 in Rams last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7

The Houston Rockets just had their 10-game winning streak snapped with a 100-102 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs last night.  They blew a 13-point lead in the final five minutes.  I think off that deflating loss that ended their streak, they won't show up at all tonight in Phoenix.

The Rockets are going to be a 'play against' team in the short-term because they are overvalued due to that winning streak.  Not only that, but they are now without their center Clint Capela due to a broken fibula suffered two games ago.  His injury is getting overlooked.  Capela averages 11.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.  The Rockets will miss him because he does all the dirty work inside.

This is also a bad spot for the Rockets because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 6 days and their 8th game in 13 days.  The Suns had yesterday off and come in undervalued after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.

The Suns are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight up loss.  Phoenix is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games following an ATS loss.  The Rockets are 15-31 ATS in their last 46 meetings with the Suns.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Houston is 14-25 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4

The Chicago Bulls are undervalued due to losing six of their last nine games overall.  But they turned the corner with a 113-82 home win over Detroit on Monday, and I look for another big effort from them here tonight as only 4-point home favorites over the Washington Wizards.  This will only be their 2nd game in 5 days so they're rested and ready to go.

Conversely, the Wizards come in overvalued due to going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  All five victories came at home, but they are 0-2 in their two road games at Miami and Indiana.  The Wizards are now 2-9 SU & 4-7 ATS in 11 road games on the season.

The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  The Bulls have won three of their last four home meetings with the Wizards all by at least 5 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well.

Chicago is 70-47 ATS in its last 117 home games after failing to cover four of its last five games against the spread coming in.  The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina -18

North Carolina should be a much bigger favorite against Northern Iowa in this contest in Chapel Hill.  The Tar Heels will be motivated following a tough 100-103 loss to Kentucky last time out, and I look for them to respond with a blowout home victory.

Following their only other loss of the season on the road to Indiana, UNC bounced back with a 45-point win.  And I think the Tar Heels are undervalued right now because they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.  But they were playing without their best player in Joel Berry for most of those games, and he just returned against Kentucky.

Northern Iowa is just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  That includes a 22-point loss to Xavier and a 23-point loss to Iowa.  Those two results alone show that UNC should win by 20-plus.  The Panthers also lost at home to George Mason and on the road to Wyoming during this stretch.  Their only two wins came at home against South Dakota State and North Dakota.

UNC is an explosive offensive team that averages 89.0 points per game.  It will control the tempo playing at home and get Northern Iowa out of its comfort zone.  The Panthers like to slow it down to make up for their offensive liabilities.  They only average 66.3 points on 40.4% shooting this season, including 62.5 points and 37.9% shooting on the road.

Northern Iowa is 0-7 ATS after scoring 55 points or fewer over the past two seasons.  The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams who average 77 or more points per game over the past two seasons.  Northern Iowa is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  UNC is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games.  Take North Carolina Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -6

The Detroit Pistons are highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  They have lost three straight games by double-digits coming in, which has them undervalued.  Stan Van Gundy has ripped their effort, and I expect them to respond in a big way tonight.

It helps that the Pistons face a Memphis Grizzlies team that is running on fumes right now.  Indeed, the Grizzlies will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations a team can be in.

Making matters worse for the Grizzlies is that they went to overtime against Boston last night.  Ton Allen played 38 minutes, Mike Conley played 36 and Marc Gasol played 37.  I don't see Memphis having much left to give, which is a bad combination when you consider the hunger that the Pistons will be playing with.

Detroit is 13-2 ATS in home games after having lost four of its last five games over the past three seasons.  The Pistons are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games as home favorites.  The Grizzlies are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Pistons Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucks/Cavs UNDER 209

I was on the UNDER 212.5 in the Cavs/Bucks game last night and it was a very bad beat.  The game ended up tied 100-100 at the end of regulation for 200 combined points, but overtime sent it over the total.  We'll get our money back and then some by taking the UNDER 209 tonight.

I really like taking the UNDER in these second of home-and-home situations.  These teams play again tonight and are obviously very familiar with one another not only because they played last night, but also because this will be their 3rd meeting in three weeks.  Points are harder to come by when teams are familiar with each other.  Not to mention, both teams will be fatigued in this 2nd of a back-to-back, which hurts offense more than defense.

A big reason I liked the UNDER last night was because Kevin Love wasn't playing, and he's questionable to return to the floor tonight.  The Cavs really miss his offense, but they are a better defensive team without him.  And now J.R. Smith likely has a broken thumb that he suffered last night and will miss an extended period of time.  Smith helps the Cavs space the floor and his shooting will be missed, too.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +9

Most of the time I'm looking to fade teams on the 2nd of back-to-backs.  But that's not the case for certain teams like the Denver Nuggets, who have a young nucleus that isn't phased by these situations.  And the Nuggets have one of the best benches in the NBA, which makes them less vulnerable than most teams in these spots.

The Nuggets have finally gotten healthy as Gary Harris just returned to the lineup and is lighting it up.  They currently have nobody on the injury report for the first time all season, and as a result they are playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three straight double-digit victories over Portland (by 12), New York (by 13) and Dallas (by 10).

Another reason I'm not worried about backing the Nuggets in this 2nd of a back-to-back is because this will still only be their 4th game in 8 days.  Plus, they have two days off after this game, so they are going to put all their eggs into one basket here and give it their best effort.

I'll gladly fade the Los Angeles Clippers as 9-point favorites here.  They just suffered a big blow when Blake Griffin was injured in a 110-117 loss to Washington on Sunday.  Griffin had to have knee surgery and will miss three-to-six weeks to recover.  The Clippers have been lost without him in the past, and they will be lost without him moving forward.  There's no way they should be laying 9 points without him, especially with how well the Nuggets are playing coming in.

Denver is 30-16 ATS in its last 46 games as road underdogs.  Los Angeles is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  This is the Clippers' first game home from a 3-game road trip.  The last time they returned home from an extended road trip they lost to the Pacers 102-111 as 11.5-point favorites on December 4th.  Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Clippers are 0-6 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland State +8

I really like this Portland State Pilots team.  They are off to a 5-4 start this season and have a ton of depth.  They have six players scoring at least 10.3 points per game and a 7th that averages 8.9 points.  That helped them overcome the loss of leading scorer Braxton Tucker (16.8 ppg) in their last four games.

They have gone 3-1 without Tucker with their only loss coming by a final of 79-71 at CS-Bakersfield.  They even went on the road and beat San Francisco 82-78 as 9.5-point dogs last time out.  Not to mention, they beat Pepperdine 91-85 as 11.5-point road dogs in the game Tucker was injured.  So I'm not concerned whether or not he plays in this game, though he is questionable and could return, which would only be an added bonus.

The biggest reason to back Portland State tonight is the rest advantage, and the fact that it will be hyped to play rival Portland.  The Vikings have had three days off since beating San Francisco on Friday.  Portland will be playing its 3rd game in 5 days here after beating South Dakota on Friday and Oregon State on Sunday.

The win over Oregon State has to feel good beating a Power 5 program, but the Beavers are way down this year and missing their best player.  I think the Pilots could suffer a letdown here following that win.  Plus, they were terrible in their previous two games, only beating South Dakota 85-82 and lowly UTRGV 90-89.  The Pilots should not be laying 8 points based on those results, especially playing their 3rd game in 5 days.

Portland is 12-30 ATS in its last 42 vs. teams who allow 77 or more points per game.  Portland State is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games after a combined score of 155 points or more in three straight games.  The Vikings are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Pilots are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 7.0 to 12.5 points.  Portland is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 games following a win.  Take Portland State Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Bucks UNDER 212.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to want revenge from a 101-118 loss at Milwaukee on November 29th in their first meeting this season.  They were going through their worst stretch of the season during that loss, but have since won six of their last seven games coming in.

The biggest reason for their improvement has been their emphasis on defense.  They have allowed 94 or fewer points in four of their last six games coming in.  And after giving up 118 to Milwaukee in that loss, they will be motivated to shut down the Bucks in the rematch.

The Bucks have been playing stingy defense of their own, allowing just 83.0 points per game in their last two contests.  And their job just got a whole lot easier with Kevin Love now doubtful to play tonight with a knee injury.  Love really makes the Cavs' offense go, and without him they are just a shell of themselves.  But the Cavs are actually a better defensive team without Love in there as he is clearly a liability on that end.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season are 35-11 (76.1%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 40-13 (75.5%) over the past five years.  The UNDER is 35-17 in Bucks last 52 games following a straight up win.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks -5.5

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.  They have lost three straight games to end their recent five-game road trip.  They'll be looking to get back on the winning track here.  They have been a very resilient team this year as this is the first time that they've lost more than two in a row.

And the main reason they have lost three in a row is because star PG Derrick Rose has missed the past three games due to injury.  Rose is expected to return to the lineup as he practiced on Monday and was symptom-free of his nagging back injuries.  Rose is averaging 16.4 points and 4.4 assists this season while proving to be a huge addition to this roster.

The biggest reason I like the Knicks is because they have a huge rest advantage here.  They last played on Saturday, giving them two days off in between games to get ready for the Pacers tonight.  Meanwhile, Indiana will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.

Making matters worse for the Pacers is that they are short-handed right now, missing both Monte Ellis and Rodney Stuckey, who are instant offense for them.  They have had to play their weak bench bigger minutes as guys like Al Jefferson, Glenn Robinson and Aaron Brooks saw significant time last night, especially Robinson and his five points in 30 minutes.

The Knicks are 9-4 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season, while the Pacers are 4-10 SU & 4-10 ATS on the road.  New York is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games off two consecutive road losses by 10 points or more.  The Knicks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing 110 points or more in their previous game.  New York is 8-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a dog this season. The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its lat five games following an ATS loss.  The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

15* Memphis/WKU Boca Raton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +5.5

I always look to fade bowl teams with head coaching changes depending on the situation.  We saw it hurt Houston already this bowl season in a 10-34 loss to San Diego State after Tom Herman left for Texas.  And now I think we're going to see the same effect here in the Boca Raton Bowl between Memphis and Western Kentucky.

The Hilltoppers just lost head coach Jeff Brohm, who led them to two straight C-USA Championships, to Purdue.  Defensive coordinator Nick Holt will take over in the interim for the bowl game.  WKU already hired former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Sanford to replace Brohm next season, so Holt is pretty much a lame-duck coach here in what will likely be his final game at WKU.

The reason the loss of Brohm really hurts is because he called the plays on offense.  The Hilltoppers averaged an FBS-best 44.6 points per game in three seasons under Brohm.  We saw Houston's offense struggle without Herman, and I certainly think the Hilltoppers won't be as explosive either without Brohm calling the shots.

WKU has already had a successful season with a C-USA title, so it isn't all that excited to be playing in this bowl game anyways.  The same cannot be said for Memphis, which is looking forward to this opportunity to play in a bowl game in the first season under head coach Mike Norvell.  He did a tremendous job in filling in for Justin Fuente in leading the Tigers to an 8-4 season.

Memphis won three of its final four games to improve its bowl position, including an impressive 48-44 win over Houston in the regular-season finale.  The Tigers lost Paxton Lynch to the NFL, but they didn't miss a beat on offense thanks to the play of QB Riley Ferguson.  He led the Tigers to an average of 39.5 points per game this season while throwing for 3,326 yards, including 409 yards and four touchdowns without an interception against a very good Houston defense in the finale.

The Tigers certainly played the tougher schedule this season as the AAC was the much stronger conference this season.  Their four losses came to Ole Miss, Navy, Tulsa and South Florida.  They beat Temple earlier this season, which won the AAC title.  Western Kentucky only beat three teams that finished with winning records this season in Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion and LA Tech.  And two of those games went right down to the wire.

Memphis comes in playing its best football of the season, getting better under Norvell as the season has progressed.  It went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its final three games, beating SMU 51-7 on the road, Cincinnati 34-7 on the road and Houston 48-44 at home.  The only loss came to South Florida by a final of 42-49, and South Florida was one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers are scoring 43.8 points per game during this stretch and they have the firepower to match the Hilltoppers score for score, especially now that Brohm isn't calling the plays.

The Tigers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games, including 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Conference-USA opponents.  The Hilltoppers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Western Kentucky is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.  Bet Memphis in the Boca Raton Bowl.

20* Panthers/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Carolina +6.5

This line seems like a classic overreaction from the betting public. They see a team like Washington in the hunt for a playoff spot and back them because of the ‘must-win’ factor. They see the Carolina Panthers at 5-8, and though they’re not eliminated from the playoffs, they expect them not to show up.

I think this false public perception has provided some line value on the Panthers here. The Redskins have been bet up from -4 to -6.5 already this week and it could get to 7. The Panthers clearly have not quit as they came back and beat the Chargers 28-16 at home last week. And almost every player shows up for Monday Night Football, so I’m not worried about any motivation concerns here.

“There is no room for error and we have to rely on certain other things happening,” head coach Ron Rivera said. “At the end of the day, our concern is our next game. We play the Redskins on Monday night and I believe our guys are going to prep and get ready. … Our intention is to win them all.”

The Redskins have only been favored by more than a field goal once all season. That came as 7.5-point home favorites over the Browns in a game they easily could have lost as they were trailing in the 4th quarter. If they were only 7.5-point favorites over the Browns, they certainly shouldn’t be 6.5-point favorites over the Panthers. And they have only won two games this season by more than a touchdown.

I think Carolina will be able to keep pace with Washington here as Cam Newton is healthy and the offense should move the football and score points. The Redskins give up 24.4 points per game, 370 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season. The back door will always be open for the Panthers against this suspect defense.

Carolina could get the return of Luke Kuechly this week as he came back to practice and has been cleared to play. That would be a nice boost for a defense that is coming off one of its best performances of the season last week. The Panthers held a very good San Diego offense to just 16 points and 278 yards while forcing five turnovers.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least. The Panthers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Redskins, winning by an average of 13.0 points per game. They won 44-16 at home last season as 7-point favorites over the Redskins. They held Washington to just 186 total yards in the win. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Washington is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 Monday night home games. The Redskins are 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Panthers are 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the past two seasons. The Redskins are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -6

The Washington Wizards are in a very tough spot here tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after topping the Clippers 117-110 at home last night as 5.5-point underdogs.  After that huge win over the Clippers, it's only fitting that they would have a letdown here.

Meanwhile, the Pacers had yesterday off after a nice 105-90 road win at Detroit on Saturday.  The Pacers have been handling their business at home this season, going 10-4 SU & 8-6 ATS on their home floor.  I think they are worth the price as only 6-point favorites here.

The Washington Wizards have also been a great home team, but it has been a different story on the road.  The Wizards are just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in road games this season.  The Pacers have won four of their last five meetings against the Wizards.

The Wizards are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days' rest.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Pacers Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Samford +22.5

The Samford Bulldogs are a quality team capable of giving Florida State a run for its money today.  Samford is 7-3 this season, which includes a solid 4-2 record in true road games.  The Bulldogs' only two road losses this season came at New Mexico State by 10 and at Cincinnati by 15 as 19-point dogs.

Florida State comes in overvalued due to its 11-1 record this season.  The Seminoles are starting to lay the kinds of big numbers that are going to be tough for them to cover moving forward.  They just beat a bad Manhattan team by 16 as 24.5-point favorites on Saturday.

Now the Seminoles have had only one day to prepare for Samford after playing on Saturday.  The Bulldogs have had two days off in between games after a nice 82-79 win at South Alabama as 4-point dogs on Friday.  And I think the Seminoles could be looking ahead here as their next game will be their ACC opener against Wake Forest.

Samford is 10-1 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the past two seasons.  Florida State is 15-35 ATS in its last 50 games after having won eight or more of its last 10 games.  The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing against a team with a winning record.  Samford is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.  The Bulldogs are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.  Take Samford Monday.

15* Bucs/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay +7

I’ve been fading the Cowboys with a ton of success here down the stretch. I cashed in the Redskins +7 against them three weeks ago, and the Giants +4 against them last week. The Cowboys have consistently been overvalued due to their 11-game winning streak, and they continue to be overvalued here as 7-point home favorites.

The Bucs continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers despite playing as well as almost anyone here down the stretch. The Bucs are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They have gone on the road and beaten both the Chiefs and Chargers as underdogs. They also beat the Bears and Seahawks as home underdogs before taking care of business in the favorite role against the Saints last week.

No team has played better defensively than the Bucs over the past five weeks. The Bucs have given up a league-low 12.8 points per game since Week 10. The six total touchdowns scored by opponents are tied for the fewest during that span. They have also held opponents to an average of 281.0 yards per game while forcing 14 turnovers in this stretch.

I know the Tampa Bay offense hasn’t been spectacular, but the biggest key for them is that they have a healthy Doug Martin back running the football. Just the threat of a running game has made the Bucs tough to stop. They are committing to the run, too, rushing at least 30 times in every game during this five-game streak. They will lean on Martin again to try and take some of the pressure off of Winston.

However, I think Winston is going to have a huge game against this overrated Cowboys defense. Dallas benefits from its offense holding onto the ball and controlling time of possession. But make no mistake, this Dallas defense is vulnerable. The Cowboys allow 69.7% completions and 268 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. They also rank 21st in the NFL in allowing 5.7 yards per play.

Jason Garrett is 11-25 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Dallas. Garrett is 0-7 ATS in home games after having won five or six of the last seven games as the coach of the Cowboys. Tampa Bay is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last three seasons. The Bucs are 10-2 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams who allow at least 5.65 yards per play over the last three years. Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  Take the Bucs Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Northeastern +12.5

The Michigan State Spartans are in a world of hurt right now.  They are just 7-4 on the season and clearly one of the worst teams that Tom Izzo has had in a long time.  The news went from bad to worse when they lost their best player Miles Bridges (16.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg) to an ankle injury.

The Spartans have played their last three games without Bridgers, and it's been ugly.  All three games came at home against Oral Roberts (80-76) as 21.5-point favorites, Youngstown State (77-57) as 18.5-point favorites and Tennessee Tech (71-63) as 19-point favorites.

Northeastern is better than all three of those teams.  And the Huskies just have a knack for playing in close games.  In fact, all 10 of their games this season have been decided by 10 points or less, including seven by 4 points or fewer.  They showed what they were capable of by stunning UConn 64-61 as 13-point road dogs.

The Huskies are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5.  Northeastern is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Huskies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Spartans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games.  This is way too big of a number for the Spartans to be laying in their current state.  Roll with Northeastern Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Celtics -4

The Boston Celtics are as healthy as they've been all season as everyone on the roster is a full go now.  They have battled injuries through the first quarter of the season, and that's why they are only 14-12.  But this is one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference when healthy, and they're going to be showing value going forward.

The Celtics also come into this game against the Miami Heat hungry for victories.  They lost three straight before a solid 96-88 home win over Charlotte as 6-point favorites on Friday.  That followed a tough 3-game skid with a 7-point loss to Toronto, a 3-point road loss at OKC and a 7-point road loss at San Antonio.  Those are three of the best teams in the NBA, and leading scorer Isaiah Thomas didn't play in any of them.  He returned against the Hornets last game and promptly scored 26 points to lead the way.

The Miami Heat have a ton of injury concerns of their own that are hampering them.  They are just 9-18 on the season, including 4-9 at home.  They remain without Dion Waiters and Chris Bosh, and both Wayne Ellington and Tyler Johnson are questionable for this game.  The Heat are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here due to their 4-0 ATS run coming in.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Celtics are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Heat since the start of last season.  They have won all four meetings by at least 8 points and by an average of 10.0 points per game.  The Heat just don't have an answer for them, especially short-handed now and against a fully healthy Boston outfit.

Boston is 14-3 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past two seasons.  The Celtics are 36-17 ATS in the last 53 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* Pats/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver +3

At 8-5 on the season, the Denver Broncos are tied with the Miami Dolphins for the final wild card spot in the AFC.  It's safe to say that they need this win more than the Patriots, who are basically guaranteed of a first-round bye.  I think we'll get a big effort from the Broncos here.

I still think the Broncos are one of the best teams in the NFL.  So the Patriots being 3-point road favorites here indicates that they would be 9-point favorites in New England.  I would take the Broncos in a heartbeat at that price.  And the Ravens were only 6.5-point dogs in New England last week.  The Broncos are better than the Ravens, and it's not all that close.

Now the Patriots are on a short week here after playing a big game against the Ravens on Monday Night Football.  Not only are they on a short week, but now they will have to play in the altitude in Denver.  And it's safe to say that playing in Denver hasn't been too kind to the Patriots in the past.

Indeed, the Broncos are 15-3 SU & 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games against New England.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Patriots.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Broncos won both meetings at home with the Patriots last year as underdogs.  Tom Brady has been terrible in Denver.

I also believe the Broncos have the best defense in the NFL, so Brady is going to struggle again, especially with his lack of weapons right now in the passing game.  The Broncos rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense at 310.7 yards per game and 1st in yards per play defense, giving up only 4.6 yards per play.  They are also 1st in the league against the pass, allowing just 183.5 passing yards per game.

Both CB Aqib Talib and LB DeMarcus Ware recently returned to the lineup, and this defense has been dominant the last few weeks.  The Broncos gave up only 273 yards and 3.6 yards per play to the Chiefs, 233 yards and 4.1 yards per play to the Jaguar sand 253 yards and 3.9 yards per play to the Titans.

Paxton Lynch has been forced into action three times this season, including two starts, because of the injuries to Trevor Siemian.  Lynch is only averaging 6.0 yards per attempt while Siemian is at 7.3 per attempt.  Siemian is playing better than Payton Manning did last year.  He just returned against the Titans from injury last week, and he played great in the second half and nearly led them to a comeback victory.  Now Siemian will be a week healthier and should be closer to full strength.

New England is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the past three seasons.  The Broncos are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  Roll with the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -3

I have been on the Steelers three of the last four weeks and they've gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They came through for me against the Browns, Giants and Bills.  Their 27-20 win over the Bills last week was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate, too.  I'm going to keep riding them this week.

The Steelers won by a touchdown over the Bills last week despite Ben Roethlisberger having an uncharacteristic off game with three interceptions.  Le'Veon Bell actually finished with more yards from scrimmage than Buffalo by himself.

The Steelers outgained the Bills by 185 yards.  They have outgained each of their last seven opponents and nine of their last 10 overall.  That is the sign of a dominant team.  They are in playoff mode right now and hitting on all cylinders.  Their defense has been great, giving up just 12.5 points per game in their last four contests.

Pittsburgh absolutely hates Cincinnati.  The Bengals have a knack for hurting their best players, which is the biggest reason for their hatred.  And they have certainly taken out their frustration on the Bengals in recent history.  They have won three straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Bengals.

I think the fact that the Bengals have won their last two games and haven't quit despite basically being eliminated from the playoffs has actually provided us some value here.  It is keeping this line lower than it should be.  But those two wins came against the Browns and Eagles, who both appear to have quit themselves.

Cincinnati has now played four straight terrible offensive teams in Buffalo, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Cleveland.  Now they'll be up against one of the top offenses in the NFL, and I don't think the Bengals have the firepower to keep up with all their injuries on offense right now.

The Steelers are now 11-2 ATS in their last 13 December games.  The Bengals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 16-4-2 ATS in its last 22 trips to Cincinnati.  Playing on the road in this series clearly hasn't been an issue for the Steelers.  They are consistently undervalued in Cincinnati, and I believe that to be the case again here with them listed as only 3-point favorites.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami Ohio +13.5

UCF is missing leading scorer and assist man B.J. Taylor (16.0 ppg, 5.0 apg) due to a thumb injury.  Taylor has missed the past three games, and the results have been terrible for the Knights without their best player.

After beating lowly MD-East Shore 76-58 in their first game without him, the Knights lost at home 49-58 to Pennsylvania as 10-point favorites.  Then they lost on the road at George Washington 59-74 on Thursday as 2-point underdogs.  Now they've had just two days to get ready for Miami Ohio.

The Miami Ohio Redhawks are nothing special at just 5-5 this season, but they are good enough to stay within 13.5 points of a UCF team missing their best player in Taylor.  And the Redhawks have had ample time to prepare for the Knights.  They haven't played since a 71-68 win over IUPUI on December 10th, getting a full seven days off to get ready for this game.

Miami Ohio is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points.  The Redhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 13 or more.  The Redhawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.  Take Miami Ohio Sunday.

20* Saturday Bowl Season Opener on Southern Miss -4.5

Southern Miss underachieved as much as almost anyone in the country this season. The Golden Eagles won 9 games and went to the Conference USA Championship Game last season.  They brought back 13 starters from that squad, including their best player in QB Nick Mullens. So to finish just 6-6 was a huge disappointment.

That being said, I like the way this team rallied in their season finale as they clearly wanted to make a bowl game. They upset Louisiana Tech 39-24 as 15.5-point home underdogs, covering the spread by 30.5 points and finally living up to their potential. A big reason for their success in that game was that Mullens returned from a two-game absence from a concussion to account for four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing).

There’s no question that the Golden Eagles are way better than their 6-6 record would indicate when you look at the statistics. In fact, they have outgained 11 of their 12 opponents this season. They are outgaining foes 472-331 on the season, or by 141 yards per game. That is the sign of a dominant team, not one with a 6-6 record.

The reason for the record is that they have committed a whopping 32 turnovers this season while forcing only 14, a -18 differential. But their two worst turnover games came without Mullens as they committed four turnovers against North Texas and five against Old Dominion. Having Mullens back healthy makes all the difference for this team. He is completing 63.4% of his passes for 2,926 yards with 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the season.

When you look at Lafayette’s numbers, they are the definition of an average 6-6 team. The Rajin’ Cajuns average just 366 yards per game on offense and give up 368 yards per game on defense. Their offense has been terrible all season as they average just 23.8 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. I think Southern Miss, which averages 33.2 points per game and 6.0 per play, has a massive edge on that side of the ball. And defensively, they’re pretty even.

I question the Rajin’ Cajuns’ motivation here because they will be making their 5th appearance in the last 6 years in the New Orleans Bowl. This venue probably has to be getting old, even though they have won all four trips with victories over San Diego State, East Carolina, Tulane and Nevada. I think Southern Miss is far and away the best team that they will have played in this particular bowl.

Teams like Southern Miss who didn't do well against the spread during the regular season have actually been great bets in the postseason.  Teams who covered less than 33% of their spreads coming into bowl season are 43-21 ATS over their last 64 tries.  Bowl favorites in this situation are 20-7 ATS in the last 27 tries.  This line opened at -2 and has been bet up to -4.5 as of this writing.  I believe this line has moved in this direction for good reason.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have had three days off since one of their most impressive performances of the season, a 99-94 road win at Chicago as 5.5-point dogs.  They have had ample time to rest up and prepare to face the Houston Rockets, and they'll be motivated to end Houston's 9-game winning streak, while also putting an end to a 7-game skid in this series with the Rockets.

The Rockets come in overvalued due to this 9-game winning streak, and they are at a severe disadvantage in terms of rest and preparation.  The Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as difficult a situation as you'll find in the NBA.

The Rockets just broke the NBA record by making 24 3-pointers last night against the Pelicans on a NBA-record 61 attempts.  It's only natural for them to have a letdown off that feat, and I expect their streak to come to an end tonight.

Houston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 Saturday games.  The Rockets are 14-25 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves have covered their last two games and are going to be a great bet going forward as they continue buying in to what Tom Thibodeau is preaching after a slow start to the season.  Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* Butler/Indiana In-State Rivalry Play on Indiana -2.5

The Indiana Hoosiers should make easy work of the Butler Bulldogs in the Crossroads Classic at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis Saturday.  I like this Butler team and backed them in their most recent game, a 10-point home win over Cincinnati.  But I think it's time to fade them here as they simply do not have the talent to match Indiana.

The Hoosiers are off to an 8-1 start this season and blitzing the competition in the process, scoring 87.6 points per game and outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game.  They got their wake-up call in a bad loss at IUPU-Fort Wayne, but have been rolling since.  They beat North Carolina by 9 at home.  Their other four games since have resulted in wins by 23 points or more.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (INDIANA) - an explosive offensive team (scoring at least 76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more two straight games are 72-27 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Hoosiers are 22-11 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  Indaina is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Hoosiers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Indiana Saturday.

15* Houston/SDSU Las Vegas Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Houston -3.5

Not all coaching changes are created equal.  I'm not concerned at all about Tom Herman leaving Houston for Texas.  That's because their offensive coordinator, Major Applewhite, is their head coach of the future.  Applewhite will call the plays and retain his defensive coordinator for this game before he moves on with Herman to Texas.

From a fundamental standpoint, Houston is clearly the better team here.  They have better talent across the board.  That talent really showed itself in wins over both Oklahoma and Louisville this season.  Not only did they win those games, they dominated them by winning by double-digits.

I think the fact that Houston lost to Memphis 44-48 in the season finale is providing us some value here.  But that was clearly a flat spot the Cougars after beating Louisville the week before.  That loss, plus the Herman news, has them coming into the bowl season undervalued.

Greg Ward Jr. will be the best player on the field in this game.  He didn't fold against Memphis in the season finale and nearly led them to a comeback win.  Ward Jr. is a senior and is going to want to go out a winner.  It's basically like having an extra coach on the field with him under center.

San Diego State has a decent defense, but it hasn't seen a quarterback who can run like Ward.  And the only spread offense the Aztecs have faced that is even close to the Cougars is Cal.  Well, SDSU gave up 40 points and over 600 yards to that Cal offense.  But Cal doesn't have a guy under center who is a dual threat like Ward Jr.

Houston was only outgained twice all season by its opponents.  The Cougars outgained their foes by 134 yards per game on average.  San Diego State was outgained five times this year.  The Aztecs were outgained in each of the last three games by Wyoming (twice) and Colorado State.

The biggest reason I like Houston is the matchup.  San Diego State is one of the worst passing teams in the country as they average just 146 rushing yards per game.  They rely heavily on their running game, and RB Donnell Pumphrey only needs 108 yards to become the FBS' all-time leading rusher.  I think achieving that feat is just as important to the Aztecs as winning the game.  If they get behind like I expect, they don't have the passing game to catch up, and they'll probably still be running it.

Houston is going to take it personal and try and stop Pumphrey from getting the record.  The Cougars certainly have the goods to do it, too.  The strength of the Houston defense is stopping the run.  They rank 3rd in the country in run defense, giving up just 98 rushing yards per game and a minuscule 2.9 yards per carry.  This couldn't be a better matchup for them.

San Diego State is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 vs. good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  The Cougars are 8-1 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last two years.  The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Aztecs are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  SDSU is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Houston Saturday.

15* Ohio State/UCLA CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UCLA -8.5

The UCLA Bruins are the best team in college basketball in my opinion.  I've backed them a handful of times with success already this season, and they continue to be undervalued by oddsmakers here as only 8.5-point favorites in this showdown with Ohio State in the CBS Sorts Classic in Las Vegas.

The Bruins are not only 11-0 straight up, but they are 9-2 ATS having covered in eight straight games coming in.  It's not like they are beating up on a soft schedule, either.  They won 97-92 as 10.5-point road dogs at Kentucky in a game that really showed they are the best team in the land.  They have also won and covered against the likes of Nebraska, Texas A&M and Michigan.  They are putting up 97.9 points per game and outscoring opponents by 23.3 points per game on the season.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are off to a nice 8-2 start, but they don't have one win of significance.  They are just 3-5 ATS on the season and have had some really concerning efforts.  They lost at home to Florida Atlantic 77-79 as 20-point favorites less than two weeks ago.  They only beat Farleigh Dickinson by 8 at home in a game that had no line as they were expected to blow them out.  They also only beat NC Central 69-63 as 24-point home favorites.  Based on those results, they aren't going to be able to stay within single-digits of a team the caliber of UCLA.

The Buckeyes are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 neutral site games.  The Bruins are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  UCLA is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  The Bruins are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 7.0 to 12.5 points.  Bet UCLA Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 204

This is the classic home-and-home game where the Bucks and Bulls played last night in Milwaukee, and now they're playing tonight in Chicago.  I always look to back the UNDER in these situations for a number of reasons.

First, these teams are obviously familiar with one another after just playing last night.  Points are usually harder to come back because of it.  Second, both teams are a little fatigued playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and that usually hurts the offense more than the defense.

Milwaukee beat Chicago 108-97 last night for 205 combined points.  With this total set at 204, they basically just need one less basket to get the UNDER.  And the previous two meetings between these teams stayed UNDER this total with combined scores of 200 and 190 points in their final two meetings last season.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings as well.

Chicago is 29-16 UNDER revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 12-3 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last two years.  The UNDER is 23-8 in Bucks last 31 games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Bulls last eight games playing on 0 days' rest.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight games following a loss of more than 10 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami Heat +7

The Miami Heat are about as healthy as they've been all season.  Only Chris Bosh and Dion Waiters are out, while Tyler Johnson is questionable to play tonight.  They had as many as seven guys on the injury report recently, and now they have only three.

As they've gotten healthier, the Heat has started to play up to their potential here of late.  They have won two in a row while covering the spread in three straight.  They only lost 100-105 in Chicago as 9.5-point dogs, beat Washington 112-101 as 1-point home dogs and beat Indiana 95-89 as 1-point home dogs.

The Clippers continue to be overvalued following their torrid start to the season.  They have gone just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They only won 113-108 in Orlando as 8.5-point favorites two nights ago, and now this price seems steep again to me as 7-point road chalk over the Heat.

Los Angeles is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Clippers are 0-8 ATS off three or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  Roll with the Heat Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +2

The Washington Wizards have started to show some life here recently.  John Wall called them out for their lack of effort in a home loss to the Magic.  Since then, they've won three out of four with all three victories coming at home.  I look for them to win a 4th straight home game tonight here against the Detroit Pistons.

The Wizards are now 8-6 at home this season, while the Pistons are just 6-9 SU & 6-9 ATS on the road.  This Detroit team has been dominant at home, but it has one of the worst home/away splits in the NBA.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Washington and Detroit.  The home team is 6-1 straight up in the last seven meetings.  The Wizards are 4-0 in their last four home meetings with the Pistons, winning by an average of 15.8 points per game.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida Atlantic +21

It's mind-boggling that Florida Atlantic is catching 21 points tonight against Miami.  This is a much-improved team from last year that returned four starters.  They have gone 3-5 against a very difficult schedule with all five losses coming by 9 points or less, including three by 4 points or fewer.

What really stood out to me was a couple of their wins.  Florida Atlantic beat South Florida 78-62 as 4.5-point home favorites.  But that wasn't their most impressive victory.  They went on the road and beat Ohio State 79-77 as 20-point dogs last time out.  Normally this would be a letdown spot, but it's not in this case because they've had 9 days off in between games after beating the Buckeyes on December 6th.

Miami is clearly down a couple notches from last year with all that it lost in the offseason.  That showed in losses to Iowa State (by 17) and Florida (by 9).  It has also shown up with their 2-5 ATS record in lined games this season.  They only beat Pennsylvania by 12 as 20-point favorites, Rutgers by 12 as 14.5-point favorites and Wofford by 17 as 19-point favorites.  I don't expect them to cover this massive number, either.

Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a home win by 30 points or more.  Florida Atlantic is 9-1 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three years.  The Owls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Florida Atlantic Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +1

The Denver Nuggets are primed for a big performance tonight at home.  They are as healthy as they have been all season right now as they currently have nobody on the injury report expected to miss this game.  Gary Harris is back in the lineup, and the Nuggets are going to be a good bet in the near future.

I think this is a good spot to back them because they have had two days off in between games after last playing on Monday.  They will also be motivated to avenge two close losses to Portland already this season with a 113-115 home loss on October 29th and a 105-112 road loss on November 13th.

Portland will be playing its 6th game in 9 days here, and playing in the altitude in Denver won't help matters.  The Blazers are just 5-10 on the road this season.  Portland is 3-8 ATS in its last 13 road games.  The Blazers are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a win.  Roll with the Nuggets Thursday.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +15.5

It's time to buy low on the Los Angeles Rams.  They are more undervalued right now than they have been at any point this season, and that's certainly reflected in this 16-point spread.  They are coming off three straight losses by 16 points or more against non-division opponents.

I think the Rams will play with some fire this week as they step back within the division to face the Seahawks.  I also like the fact that they fired head coach Jeff Fisher, because that first game with an interim coach usually provides a spark for the players.  In this case it will be special teams coach John Fassel serving as the interim head coach.

The Rams always play the Seahawks tough.  In fact, they are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  All four wins were outright upsets as they were dogs of 3.5, 5.5, 6.5 and 11.5 points.  The lone loss was a 14-point setback in Seattle, and I think the Seahawks are going to have a very hard time putting them away by more than two touchdowns here.

We got to see first-hand just how poor the Seattle secondary would be in their first game without Earl Thomas last week.  They allowed the highest passer rating of the Pete Carroll era in a 10-38 loss to the Packers.  Aaron Rodgers completed 18 of 23 passes for 246 yards and three touchdowns against this Seattle defense.

Los Angeles still boasts an elite defense that has had the Seahawks' number.  The Rams have allowed just 20 points and a combined 126 rushing yards in their last two meetings with the Seahawks.  This defensive line will stop the run again, and I'm not so sure Russell Wilson can beat the secondary after throwing five interceptions against the Packers last week.

Plays on road teams (LA RAMS) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road teams (LA RAMS) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in three straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Rams Thursday.

15* Bulls/Bucks TNT Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -2

The Milwaukee Bucks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing three straight coming in to fall one game below .500 on the season.  Look for them to get back on track at home here, where they are 8-6 on the season.

The Bucks will be primed for a big performance because they have had two days off in between games after last playing on Monday.  The Bulls are just 6-7 in road games this year and are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.

The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series.  The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Chicago is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Bucks Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The Indiana Pacers are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the most difficult situations for any team in the NBA.

The New Orleans Pelicans had yesterday off after nearly upsetting the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday.  They only lost that game 109-113 as 11-point home underdogs.  I look for them to be a good bet going forward, especially now that they are as healthy as they have been at any point this season.

The Pacers are just 3-9 SU & 3-9 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 9.5 points per game and giving up a whopping 113.6 points per game away from home.  Indiana is 0-9 ATS after a game where the opponent had 65 or more rebounds over the past three seasons.  The Pacers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* Celtics/Spurs ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs on National TV.  Points will be very hard to come by in this matchup, especially with the Celtics playing without their best player in Isaiah Thomas.

Not having Thomas does a couple things for the Celtics.  While it makes them way worse off offensively, it's actually an upgrade for them defensively.  It means that Marcus Smart plays more minutes, and he may be the best defender that they have.  Not to mention Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley are already plus defenders.

The last two games without Thomas have been very low-scoring as the Celtics lost 94-101 to the Raptors for 195 combined points and they lost 96-99 to the Thunder for 195 combined points.  Both the Thunder and Raptors are elite offensive teams as well.

Boston is playing at a much slower tempo this year as it ranks 19th in pace.  San Antonio is playing at a snail's pace, ranking 27th in the NBA in pace.  But the Spurs will get after you defensively as they rank 5th in defensive efficiency.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Spurs last seven games overall.  We've seen 196 or fewer combined points in five of those contests.

Boston is 17-4 UNDER off a road loss by 6 points or less over the past three seasons.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Celtics last eight vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 13-5 in Celtics last 18 games overall.  The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Spurs last 26 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Jazz UNDER 200

The Oklahoma City Thunder are starting to show signs of wearing down.  They only managed 99 points against Houston, 99 against Boston and then 95 against Portland last night in their last three games, respectively.  Now they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here, and they could be without Victor Oladipo again, who sat out last night.

Points are going to be even harder to come by tonight against a Utah team that locks you down defensively.  The Jazz rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 101.3 points per 100 possessions.  And the Jazz prefer to play at a slow pace as they rank 29th in the NBA in pace at 93.7 possessions per game.

The Jazz will control the tempo playing at home here.  And the Jazz remain without starting point guard George Hill, who is second on the team in scoring.  Not having him has hampered their offense.  Nothing will come easy for the Jazz either as the Thunder rank 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Seven of the last eight meetings between Utah and Oklahoma City have seen 200 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  And all of those were with Kevin Durant playing for the Thunder.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Salt Lake City.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder's last five games overall.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Thunder's last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Thunder's last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Oklahoma City is 9-0 to the UNDER off three straight games with 55 or more rebounds this season.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Middle Tennessee -1.5

Middle Tennessee went 25-10 last season and shocked No. 2 Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament.  The Blue Raiders brought back three starters from that team, including their top two scorers in Giddy Potts and Reggie Upshaw.

The Blue Raiders have picked up right where they left off last year, opening 9-1 this season.  They have beaten Ole Miss 77-62 as 6-point road dogs and Vanderbilt 71-48 as 2-point home favorites.  Those two results alone show what this team is capable of.

Belmont is just 4-3 this season with its four wins coming against Western Kentucky, Lipscomb (by 2 twice) and Pepperdine.  The Bruins have a common opponent with Middle Tennessee in Vanderbilt.  Well, the Bruins lost to Vanderbilt 66-80 as 5-point dogs.  That result really shows the difference between these two teams after the Blue Raiders beat the Commodores by 23.

Middle Tennessee is 8-0 ATS after a combined score of 125 or less over the last two seasons.  The Blue Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 1 to 6.5 points.  The Bruins are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games as a dog of 1 to 6.5 points.  Belmont is 0-6 ATS in its last six Wednesday games.  Roll with Middle Tennessee Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +7

The Minnesota Timberwolves are about as undervalued as you will find them all season right now.  That's because they are off to a 6-18 start to the season.  But this team is much better than their record as they have consistently blown leads throughout the season.

I think the Timberwolves players are really going to want to win this game for head coach Tom Thibodeau, who will be coaching against his former team in the Chicago Bulls for the first time.  Things didn't exactly end well for him in Chicago, and he wants to stick it to the Bulls tonight.

The Bulls just have a tendency of playing up and down to their competition.  They have beaten Cleveland and San Antonio recently, but they also have a home loss to the Lakers and a 25-point loss to the Mavs in recent weeks.  I don't think we will get an 'A' effort here from the Bulls, either.

The Timberwolves swept the season series with the Bulls last year, winning 112-105 as 3.5-point home favorites and 102-93 as 9.5-point road dogs.  Chicago is 16-29 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 12-26 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage between 25% and 40% over the last three years.

Plays on road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 27-4 (87.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* Temple/Villanova FS1 No-Brainer on Temple +16.5

Villanova is overvalued right now due to winning the national championship last season and opening this season 10-0.  The Wildcats are simply laying too many points in this rivalry game with Temple, and we'll take advantage.

I know the Wildcats have dominated this series with the Owls, going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, but that has only added to the value.  This isn't the same dominant Villanova team we saw last year because they lack an inside presence and their depth isn't nearly as strong as it was a year ago.

Temple has really impressed me during its 7-3 start this season.  The three losses came by a combined 11 points, and the Owls have beaten the likes of Florida State as 10-point dogs and West Virginia as 12.5-point dogs.  Those are two of the better teams in the country, and those results show that the Owls can play with Villanova.

This is also a potential letdown spot for Villanova after beating Notre Dame 74-66 on Saturday on a neutral court.  The Wildcats erased an early double-digit deficit and actually wound up covering as 5-point favorites, which also has them overvalued here.

Temple is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog.  Villanova is 0-7 ATS in home games off two straight games where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last three seasons.  The Owls are 9-1 ATS versus good offensive teams who score 77 or more points per game over the last two years.  The Owls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.   These last four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing the Owls.  Take Temple Tuesday.

25* Ravens/Pats MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore +7

The betting public and the oddsmakers aren't giving the Ravens the amount of respect they deserve.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NFL since the beginning of the season.  They have outgained their last five opponents by a total of 406 yards.

In fact, the Ravens now rank 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 51.6 yards per game on the season.  The key has been a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in total defense (296.1 yards/game) and 1st against the run (73.8 yards/game).  This has a chance to be the best run defense in NFL history.

That's important because the Ravens can make the Patriots a one-dimensional passing team.  The Patriots aren't nearly as effective when they can't run the ball.  That's because Tom Brady is playing with limited weapons right now with both Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola out.

The Patriots have been able to get by the past two weeks without Gronk because they have been up against two of the worst offenses in the NFL.  They beat the Jets 22-17 on the road and the Rams 26-10 at home.  The Ravens are starting to click offensively, especially after Joe Flacco threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-6 win against the Dolphins last week.

Getting a full touchdown here with the Ravens is a tremendous value.  That's especially the case when you consider 24 of the last 29 Baltimore games have been decided by 8 points or less.  It's also the case when you consider how tough Baltimore has played New England in recent years.  Indeed, the Patriots have only beaten the Ravens one time by more than 6 points in their last nine meetings.

The Ravens are 8-0 ATS in their last eight after leading their previous game by 21 points or more at halftime.  They are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.3 points per game in this spot.  Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last five Monday games.  The Ravens are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record.  The road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Ravens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five trips to New England.

Plays on underdogs 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the second half of the season are 71-37 (65.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Ravens Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets +14

The Houston Rockets are as overvalued as they are going to be all season right now.  That's because they have won six straight coming in while going 5-1 ATS in the process.  And they are 17-7 ATS on the season, so the betting public has made a killing off of them.

But I question how much the Rockets will actually be motivated to beat the Brooklyn Nets, let alone beat them by 15-plus points, which is what it would take to cover this number.  And the Rockets haven't shown up for the Nets in recent meetings.  Brooklyn is 3-0 ATS in the last three, winning outright 110-105 as 5-point home dogs, winning outright 106-98 as 11.5-point road dogs, and only losing 98-102 as 8-point road dogs.

Conversely, the Nets come in undervalued after losing four of their last five, including a 29-point blowout at San Antonio last time out.  But they were competitive in their previous three games, losing by just 9 and 5 points, while also beating Denver by 5 points.

And now the Nets are as healthy as they've been all season with Jeremy Lin back in the lineup.  They don't have any players expected to miss this game.  And they'll be rested and ready to go as this is just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Rockets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Brooklyn is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  Take the Nets Monday.

15* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +4

The Cowboys are way overvalued right now due to their 11-game winning streak. That has shown up the last two weeks as they have failed to cover in a 5-point win over Washington as 7-point home favorites, and a 2-point win at Minnesota as 3-point favorites. And the Cowboys were outgained by 152 yards by the Redskins and by 54 yards by the Vikings.

Let’s just compare the line from the first game between these teams to see how overvalued the Cowboys really are. The Giants were 1-point road favorites in Week 1. By that theory, they should be roughly 7-point home favorites in the rematch when you factor in 3 points for home-field advantage. Instead, they are 4-point dogs, which is essentially provides us with 11 points of value. I’m not saying they should be 7-point favorites, but they certainly shouldn’t be underdogs after being favored at Dallas in the opener.

The Giants boast a terrific passing game that can take advantage of this awful Dallas pass defense, which is allowing 70.3% completions and 277 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.  The Cowboys have been terrible on defense all season, but that has been masked by their offense, which has been able to control the time of possession. That isn’t likely to happen in this game, and that defense will get exposed.

The Cowboys’ defense ranks 27th in yards per play (5.8), 29th in sack percentage (4.6%), 32nd in interception rate (0.8%) and 28th in yards per drive (36.4) allowed. That’s not the sign of a good defense, and Eli Manning, Odell Bechkam, Sterling Shephard and company should be able to make plenty of plays against Dallas to lead the Giants to victory.

The reason the Cowboys won’t be able to control the time of possession is because the Giants are so good against the run. Indeed, the Giants are 5th in the NFL in run defense, giving up just 91.4 rushing yards per game. They are also tied for 3rd in allowing just 3.6 yards per carry this season. They will be able to limit Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys’ rushing attack here. Dallas only gained 101 yards on 30 carries in the first meeting, which is just 3.4 yards per carry.

The Giants are 5-1 at home this season with their only loss coming by two points to the Washington Redskins. New York is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. New York is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Dallas.  Take the Giants Sunday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +11

The Golden State Warriors are in about as tough a spot as they've been all season tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 5 days.  They started showing signs of wearing down last night in an 89-110 loss at Memphis as 13-point favorites, and they certainly won't be in any better shape tonight.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are about as undervalued as they're going to be all season.  That's because they have gone just 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  I'm willing to overlook that because they always get up for teams like Golden State.

In fact, the Timberwolves have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Warriors.  They haven't lost by more than 13 points in any of those seven meetings.  And after Ricky Rubio called out the team for their lack of effort following a bad loss to the Pistons on the 2nd of a back-to-back last time out, I expect an inspired effort from them here tonight.

Minnesota is 10-1 ATS off three straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or more over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

15* Seahawks/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay +3

Two weeks ago before playing the Eagles on Monday Night Football, Aaron Rodgers said the Packers were going to run the table. Well, so far so good. Green Bay has saved its season with a 27-13 win as 4-point dogs at Philadelphia and a 21-13 home win over Houston as 7-point favorites last week. It is now just two games behind Detroit in the division and very much alive in the wild card race.

I think the fact that the Seahawks blew out the Panthers on National TV last Sunday night has them overvalued here. The betting public is all over them now. But that was an awful spot for the Panthers. They were coming off a crushing loss in Oakland the previous week that essentially eliminated them from the playoffs. And the Seahawks wanted revenge from two losses to the Panthers last season, including the NFC Championship Game.

The Packers have made a commitment to running the football the past couple weeks. They ran it 28 times against the Eagles and 26 against the Texans. They have been able to control the time of possession in both games as they have been consistently moving the sticks. That has benefited their defense, which has given up just 13.0 points per game over the past two weeks.

The Seahawks aren’t nearly as good on the road as they are at home. They are just 2-3 in road games this season, compared to 6-0 at home. Seattle is scoring just 15.3 points per game on the road this year.  And Green Bay is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.

The Packers have at least a 4-point home field advantage, and it’s pushing 5 points when it comes to the month of December when it gets colder out.  So this line is essentially saying that the Seahawks would be at least a 7-point favorite on a neutral field, and I'm not buying that.  Aaron Rodgers is 14-1 straight up in his last 15 December home starts.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings. The Packers are 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Seahawks. You have to go all the way back to 1999 to find the last time Seattle won in Green Bay. And not to mention, team captain Earl Thomas has been lost for the season due to injury. If there’s any quarterback who can take advantage of an absence like Thomas, it’s certainly Rodgers.

The Seahawks are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a home blowout win by 21 points or more. Green Bay is 9-1 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half of last game over the past three seasons. The Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Roll with the Packers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kentucky -24

I think the loss to UCLA last week was exactly what the Kentucky Wildcats needed to re-focus.  And that loss to UCLA doesn't look so bad considering the Bruins are still undefeated and just hung over 100 points on Michigan Saturday.  The Bruins may be the best team in the country.

Kentucky is right up there as a Top 5 team in the country in my opinion.  The Wildcats came back with a 24-point win over a very good Valparaiso team following that loss to UCLA.  And all eight of Kentucky's wins have come by 21 points or more this season, including  wins over Michigan State (by 21) and Arizona State (by 46).

Hofstra is a team of similar talent to a lot of these teams that Kentucky has been blowing out.  The Pride are 6-4 on the season and they haven't played anyone near the caliber of Kentucky.  They have lost to the likes of Sacred Heart, Manhattan, Vermont and Saint Bonaventure this season.

Their only wins have come against Coppin State (by 2), Bradley (by 2), South Dakota, Medaille, Columbia (by 2) and Florida Atlantic.  This is a Hofstra team that is still getting too much respect from the books after going 24-10 last year.  But they lost three starters from that team in Juan'ya Green (17.8 ppg), Ameen Tanksley (15.9 ppg) and Denton Koon (11.4 ppg) who combined to average over 45 points per game.  That's a lot of production lost.

The Pride are going to be in trouble here because they are a terrible defensive team despite playing such an easy schedule.  They are allowing 77.9 points per game, 45.8% shooting and 41.1% shooting from 3-point range against teams that only average 71 points per game, 41.7% shooting and 33.7% from 3-point range.  Kentucky will get to 100 in this game, which will be more than enough to cover this 24-point spread.

Hofstra is 0-8 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games over the last two seasons.  Kentucky is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.  Take Kentucky Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Delaware +11

The Yale Bulldogs have no business laying double-digits to the Delaware Blue Hens Sunday.  I've been looking to fade these Bulldogs for a while now, and now we've finally got an opportunity to because their last four games haven't even had lines set for them.

The reason I've been looking to fade Yale is because they lost their best player in Makai Mason to a season-ending foot injury.  Maison was their only returning starter from last season.  He averaged 16.0 points last year and is the heart and soul of this team.  Without him, they aren't one of the top Ivy League teams anymore.

That has clearly shown this season as the Bulldogs are just 4-4 on the year.  They lost on the road to Virginia by 24, to Pitt by 5, to Vermont by 2 and even to Bryant by 9.  They weren't very impressive in home wins over Lehigh (by 8) and Albany (by 4), two teams that aren't as good as Delaware.  Yale is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 23-7 last year and 13-1 in the Ivy League.  But without Mason, they now have zero returning starters from that squad.

Delaware has been impressive en route to a 6-3 start this season.  The Blue Hens beat Bradley by 14 on the road as 8-point dogs and Miami Ohio by 2 on the road as 4.5-point dogs.  They also only lost by 6 at LaSalle as 15.5-point dogs.  That's the same LaSalle team that took Villanova down to the wire the other day.

Delaware also has a scheduling advantage here.  It last played on December 2nd, getting over a week to prepare for Yale.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs last played on December 8th, getting only two days to prepare for Delaware.

Yale is 17-33 ATS in its last 50 home games following a win by 10 points or more.  Delaware is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Blue Hens are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.  Roll with Delaware Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

As the weather has gotten colder, the Pittsburgh Steelers have played their best football of the season. The Steelers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They are coming off three straight double-digit blowout victories and I expect them to continue to roll Sunday.

The Steelers have moved into a first-place tie with the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. The Ravens play the Patriots on the road this week, so this is their chance to overtake them. And with how well they’re playing right now, the Steelers should be favored by more than 2.5 points against the Bills.

The Bills will have a hard time getting back up off the mat this week after blowing a golden opportunity in Oakland last weekend. They led that game 24-9 in the third quarter, but gave up 29 unanswered points and wound up losing by 14. I simply do not like the state of mind of this team after that kind of loss, especially since their chances of making the playoffs are now slim to none. They would need to run the table, and even that might not be enough.

The Bills are now just 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their two wins have come against the Bengals and Jaguars. They beat the Bengals by 4 the same day that they lost both AJ Green and Giovani Bernard, and they were fortunate to beat the Jaguars after trailing most the way at home in that game.

The Steelers have outgained six straight opponents and eight of their last nine, which is the sign of a dominant team. They outgained the Giants by 155 yards last week in one of their most complete performances of the season. Ben Roethlisberger now has a full compliment of weapons, especially with the return of TE LaDarius Green, who caught six balls for 110 yards and a score last week.

The defense is starting to play more like the Steel Curtain units of the past. The Steelers have allowed a total of 30 points in their last three games and an average of 10.0 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bills have allowed 28 or more points in four of their last six. I see the Steelers hanging a big number on them here and Buffalo not being able to catch up.

The key to stopping the Bills is stopping the run, and the Steelers have been great at that this season. They rank 6th in the NFL against the run, giving up just 92 rushing yards per game. The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 December games. The Bills are 12-26-2 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Pittsburgh is 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Buffalo.  The one-sided nature of this series continues this week.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +7.5

The Detroit Lions have no business being favored by more than a touchdown against any team in the NFL.  Especially not a division rival like the Chicago Bears who continue to play hard and would love to put a blemish on the Lions' record here.

This line is a classic overreaction from the week before.  The Lions went on the road and shocked the Saints in a 28-13 victory as 6-point underdogs.  But that was the first time all season that the Lions won by more than a touchdown.  In fact, 11 of Detroit's 12 games this season have been decided by 7 points or less, and that alone shows you that there is value with the Bears here.

Not to mention, the Lions are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL due to their 8-4 record.  But they have actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 11 of their 12 games this season, which makes it nearly impossible to be 8-4.  The raw numbers show that the Lions aren't very good.  They rank 23rd in yardage differential, getting outgained by 17.5 yards per game.  They also 22nd in yards per play differential (-0.2), gaining 5.6 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.8 per play on defense.

If you just look at the stats, you would think the Bears are actually the better team.  The Bears actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential (+0.6).  They gain 5.7 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.1 per play on defense.  They Bears are also 10th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 21.4 yards per game on the season.

The Bears beat the Lions 17-14 at home as 3-point dogs in their first meeting.  That game was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bears outgained the Lions by 145 yards in that contest. Their offense racked up 408 total yards while their defense only gave up 263.  They held Matthew Stafford to 213 passing yards and two interceptions without a touchdown.  The Lions' only touchdown in that game came on an 85-yard punt return with less than two minutes to play.

I like what I've seen from Matt Barkley recently.  He is a gamer who doesn't make many mistakes.  And Barkley would have put up even bigger numbers the past two weeks if it wasn't for drops.  Bears receivers dropped 10 balls against the Titans in a game they should have won, and several more last week against the 49ers.  Had they caught some of them, that would have been a bigger blowout than the 26-6 final against San Francisco showed.

But Jordan Howard had a big day, rushing for 117 yards and three touchdowns for the Bears, and he should have a big game against this Lions' defense.  Detroit has had to play some of its safety's at linebacker because of injuries to their top two LB's in DeAndre Levy and Tahir Whitehead.  The Saints didn't take advantage of it last week as they only ran the ball 12 times.  Chicago won't make that same mistake.  Look for a heavy dose of Howard in this one.

Chicago is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 off three straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.   The Lions are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.  Detroit is 0-7 ATS in its last seven after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average at least 7 yards per attempt over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last two years.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Chicago.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -2.5

The Orlando Magic are running on fumes right now, and it's starting to show.  The Magic have been blown out in back-to-back games with an 87-117 home loss to Detroit and an 88-109 road loss at Charlotte last night.

It's easy to see why this team is struggling right now.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 5 days and their 7th game in 10 days tonight.  That's as tough of a schedule as you will find in the NBA.

The Denver Nuggets come in the fresher team after having yesterday off.  They also come in motivated after losing two straight and five of their last six with four of those losses coming by 8 points or less.  They are ready to get a win here tonight against the gassed Magic.

Making matters worse for the Magic is that both starting C Nikola Vucevic and backup C Bismack Biyombo were injured last night and questionable to play today.  Denver is 20-5 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons.  The Nuggets are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Denver is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Orlando.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Butler -3

The Butler Bulldogs will be motivated to bounce back from their first loss of the season.  I went against them in that loss and took Indiana State +10.5.  The Bulldogs lost 71-72 after committing a foul in the closing seconds.  I took Indiana State because they are underrated, and also because I thought Butler would be looking ahead to this game against Cincinnati.

But now the Bulldogs return home where they are 5-0 on the season and outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game.  Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indiana is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and this is a very small number for the Bulldogs to be laying in any home game.  They are undervalued because of that loss to Indiana State.

Cincinnati comes in overvalued due to its No. 22 ranking and 7-1 record on the season.  The Bearcats are also overvalued due to a recent road win over ranked Iowa State, but its clear that the Cyclones aren't all that good this season because they just lost by double-digits to a down Iowa team on Thursday.  The Bearcats are getting too much credit for that win.

Butler went on the road and beat Cincinnati 78-76 as 5.5-point dogs last year.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  The Bearcats are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 vs. Big East foes.  Butler is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Bulldogs are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  Take Butler Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Marquette CBB Saturday No-Brainer on Marquette +4.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Head coach Steve Wojciechowski is in his third season and returned four starters from last year.  The Golden Eagles are off to a 7-2 start this season.

They are off to that start despite playing a pretty difficult schedule.  The two losses have come to Pitt and Michigan, but they have beaten both Vanderbilt (by 24) and Georgia (by 10) on the road as well.  They are clearly battle-tested right now.

Wisconsin has also played a difficult schedule.  But while the Badgers have taken care of business at home, they have not fared well on the road.  They lost their only true road game this season to Creighton (by 12) as 1.5-point favorites.  They also lost to North Carolina by 15 on a neutral court.

Marquette went into Wisconsin and won 57-55 as 7-point dogs last year.  But the Golden Eagles are vastly improved this season with all of the talent and experience they have back, and I don't think they should be underdogs at home this time around.  Marquette is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with Wisconsin.

Marquette is 6-0 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three seasons.  The Badgers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  The underdog is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Roll with Marquette Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -3.5

The New York Knicks are coming off a confidence-crushing 94-126 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night on ESPN.  They had won four straight prior to that game and were feeling pretty good, but it's going to be tough to recover from that loss in time to face the Sacramento Kings here two nights later.

That's especially the case considering the Knicks just beat the Kings 106-98 at home as 1.5-point favorites on Sunday.  They won't be motivated to beat the Kings again only five days later, while the Kings will be highly motivated for revenge here at home this time around.  I love this situation based on motivation.

The Kings are feeling pretty good after one of their best performances of the season in a 120-89 win at Dallas.  They went just 2-3 on their road trip, but all three losses came by 8 points or less to Washington, Boston and New York, so they were very competitive.  And the Kings still have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA as they are consistently undervalued at home.

I know Derrick Rose is questionable to play tonight after sitting out the Cavs game with a back injury, and I still would like the Kings at -4 even if he does play.  If he doesn't play it would only be an added bonus.  The Kings have actually won four of their last five meetings with the Knicks.

The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Sacramento is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven Friday games.  The Kings are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Kings are rested as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Knicks will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  Bet the Kings Friday.

 20* Raiders/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Oakland +3.5

The Oakland Raiders are going to be out for revenge from their 26-10 loss to the Chiefs earlier this season. That was actually the last time they lost a game, as they have reeled off six straight victories since. And it was an awful spot for the Raiders as the Chiefs were coming off their bye week with a big advantage in rest.

But the Raiders have been rolling since, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming in a 3-point win over Carolina as 3.5-point favorites. The other five wins all came by 6 points or more. The offense is hitting on all cylinders, scoring at least 27 points in all six games. And the defense has steadily improved, allowing 24 or fewer points in five of the six contests.

This is an Oakland offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring at 28.9 points per game and 5th in total offense at 391.7 yards per game. The Chiefs rank just 23rd in total offense at 333.3 yards per game. They just have trouble moving the football this season, and their defense hasn’t been any better, ranking 29th in total defense at 384.9 yards per game.

As you can see, the Chiefs are 9-3 despite ranking 23rd in total offense and 29th in total defense. If that’s not overachieving I don’t know what is. They rank 29th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 51.6 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some very poor company. They have been outgained in five straight games despite going 4-1 over that time frame.

At some point, the Chiefs’ luck is going to run out because this isn’t a very good football team. They are winning with smoke and mirrors. A whopping 16 of their 29 points last week came from their defense and special teams against the Falcons in a game they should have lost. They also got 9 points from their defensive and special teams in a win over the Broncos the week before. And four weeks ago, their offense didn’t score a touchdown and they beat the Panthers.

But we saw what happened when the Chiefs couldn’t get points from their defense or special teams in their last home game in Week 11. They lost 17-19 at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs as 7-point favorites. And that game wasn’t even as close as the final score because the Bucs outgained them by 99 yards and were held to four field goals. The Chiefs have been outgained by a total of 592 yards in their last five games, which equates to 118.4 yards per game. That’s not the sign of a good football team.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series between Oakland and Kansas City. In fact, the road team is 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings. The Raiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Kansas City. And Oakland has been a tremendous road team over the past few seasons. The Raiders are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS on the road this season alone.

And the Chiefs certainly haven't had any home-field advantages of late.  They are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Kansas City is also 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  It will be cold in Kansas City tonight, but the winds will be in the single-digits, which helps Oakland's elite passing attack.  Bet the Raiders Thursday.

15* Iowa State/Iowa ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -4.5

There is a huge talent gap between Iowa State and Iowa this year.  That's why I fully expect the Cyclones to win their fourth straight meeting with the Hawkeyes, which would be a record for them in this series.  There is certainly no love lost here, and they won't feel badly at all at beating up on a down Hawkeyes squad.

Here's a quote from Iowa State's senior leader Monte Morris. "We want to go in there and make a statement.  Set the tone and send a message both to Iowa and the country.  We're trying to go out there and beat them badly."

The Cyclones boast four senior starters this season.  They are off to a 6-2 start with their two losses coming to Cincinnati and Gonzaga by a combined 3 points.  I think the loss to Cincinnati a week ago really only helped this team get motivated and focused moving forward.

Following the Cincinnati loss, the Cyclones dominated Nebraska-Omaha 91-47 at home as 18.5-point favorites.  That's important because Iowa lost to Nebraska-Omaha just two nights earlier 89-98 as 11-point home favorites.  That gives these teams a common opponent.

This is a young, inexperienced Hawkeyes team that is still trying to find their way.  They are just 4-5 this season with an 8-point loss to Seton Hall, a 33-point loss to Virginia, and 8-point loss to Memphis, a 14-point loss to Notre Dame and that aforementioned 9-point loss to Nebraska-Omaha.  Their four wins have come against Kennesaw State, Savannah State, UTRGV and Stetson.

The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the last three seasons.  Iowa is 0-6 ATS after having lost three of its last four games coming in over the past three years.  Iowa State is 11-3 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a straight up win.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -5.5

I think we'll see a big effort from the Washington Wizards tonight at home.  They are coming off a bad 116-124 home loss to the Orlando Magic.  I have to give them a little break because it was the 2nd of a back-to-back, but start PG John Wall, who scored 52 points in the loss, wasn't giving his teammates a break after the loss.

"Not even just defensive effort, just playing hard," Wall said. "Our job is to wake up and just play hard. Before you made it to the NBA or got a college scholarship, you played hard to get where you wanted to get to. To still be talking about playing hard. ... That's the easiest thing. Shouldn't have to do with any contracts or any money. Just come in and play basketball."

The Denver Nuggets are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They nearly erased a 29-point deficit in Brooklyn last night, but lost 111-116 in the end.  They used a lot of energy to make that comeback, and I don't see them having much left in the tank here tonight.

The Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games playing on 0 days rest.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Washington.  Roll with the Wizards Thursday.

15* Warriors/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers despise the Golden State Warriors.  They will be out to prove that they're contenders in the West, and they'll be more motivated for this game than any other this season.  I think this is a game that they win outright tonight, though we'll take the points for some insurance.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that they have lost six straight to the Warriors.  But five of those six losses came by 8 points or fewer, so they have been right there with a chance to win in nearly all of those games.  I think they get over the top here tonight.

I like the fact that the Clippers have had two days off coming into this game to prepare for the Warriors.  They will be well-rested and ready to go.  The Warriors come in overvalued after their 142-106 home victory over Indiana on Monday where Klay Thompson scored 60 points.  The Pacers had upset the Clippers the night before and didn't show up.

Plays on home underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 56-22 (71.8%) ATS since 1996.  The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Roll with the Clippers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -4

The Creighton Bluejays remain an undervalued commodity despite their 8-0 record this season.  This is legitimately one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have gone 5-2 ATS this season with their two non-covers coming by a combined 1.5 points.

Creighton has proved it is for real with some quality wins over some very good teams.  The Bluejays beat Wisconsin by 12 as 1.5-point dogs, Washington State by 26 as 14.5-point favorites and NC State by 18 as 5.5-point favorites.

Nebraska has lost three of its last four games coming in and doesn't boast a good win yet.  The Huskers lost to UCLA by 11, Virginia Tech by 13 and Clemson by 2 in their three toughest games thus far.  Creighton is the second-best team they will have faced behind UCLA, and they are only catching four points.

Creighton head coach Doug McDermott puts a ton of emphasis on beating their in-state rival each year.  The Bluejays are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins coming by double-digits.  In fact, the Blue Jays are a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  Take Creighton Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -1

The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They play in a small market and don't get much respect from the betting public or the books because of it.  This is a very nice value here with the Bucks as only 1-point favorites over the Blazers.

The Bucks are playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by a final of 106-107 to the San Antonio Spurs as 6-point dogs.  They beat Cleveland 118-101 recently, and had narrow losses to Toronto (by 6) and Golden State (by 3) in the last few weeks, proving that they can play with anyone.

The Blazers come in overvalued off a 3-game winning streak.  They have beaten the Pacers, Heat and Bulls during this stretch, catching all of those teams in bad spots.  But the Blazers are getting outscored by 3.4 points per game on the road this season, while the Bucks are outscoring foes by 4.9 points per game at home.

Plays against road underdogs (PORTLAND) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 47-15 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The lazers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win.  The Bucks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.  Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Hornets -5

The Detroit Pistons are in a very tough spot here.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  This team is running on fumes right now and won't be able to bring a very good effort tonight against the Charlotte Hornets.

Meanwhile, the Hornets will be highly motivated to avenge an 89-112 home loss to the Pistons on November 29th just over a week ago.  That was a terrible spot for the Hornets as they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, so they simply didn't have anything to give.

That was a rare loss for the home team in this series because the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Hornets have won their previous three home meetings with the Pistons by 15, 20 and 22 points, or by an average of 19 points per game.  With the Pistons in the tough spot this time around, look for the Hornets to get back to blowing them out at home tonight.

Charlotte is 29-16 ATS in its last 45 games when revenging a loss of 10 points or more.  The Pistons are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last five Wednesday games.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana State +10.5

The Indiana State Sycamores are much better than their 4-4 record would indicate.  They have been an undervalued commodity in the early going, posting a 6-1 ATS mark through their first seven games.  They aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers here, either.

The Sycamores are very close to being 8-0 despite playing a tough schedule.  Their four losses have all come by 3 points or less, including a 78-80 road loss to Northern Illinois as 6-point dogs, a 71-73 loss to ranked Iowa State as 13.5-point dogs on a neutral, and a 62-65 loss to Stanford as 6-point dogs on a neutral.

Butler comes in way overvalued due to its perfect 8-0 start to the season.  But this will be just the Bulldogs' second true road games, and it's going to be a hostile atmosphere in support of the Sycamores.  They lost by 14 as 17-point road dogs to Butler last season, and now should stay within single-digits at home this time around, possibly pulling off the upset.

The Bulldogs are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Indiana State is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games.  The Sycamores are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  The Sycamores are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday.

15* Florida/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -7

This is a discount on one of the best teams in college basketball Tuesday night.  The Duke Blue Devils will rarely be this small of favorites all season, and we'll take advantage here I expect them to crush the Florida Gators at Madison Square Garden.

Luke Kennard leads the Blue Devils (8-1) with 19.4 points per game, followed by Grayson Allen (17.1), Frank Jackson (15.4) and Amile Jefferson (14.7). Jefferson is also the leading rebounder with 9.8 per game.  They are loaded everywhere, and now they're finally starting to get healthy.

Duke's two prized freshmen recruits will get their first big test tonight.  Center Marques Bolden and forward Jayson Tatum, both five-star recruits, were cleared to play Friday in the 94-55 win over Maine.  That duo missed the first eight games of the season.  Instead of a six-man rotation, the Blue Devils now have eight guys they are comfortable putting on the floor.  It will make a huge difference going forward.

Florida is 2-10 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or fewer over the past three seasons.  Duke is 14-5 ATS vs. teams who outscore opponents by 12 or more points per game over the past three seasons.  Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (DUKE) - an explosive offensive team (at least 76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more two straight games are 71-27 (72.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Duke Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +5

The San Antonio Spurs are an impressive 12-0 on the road this season.  But they are being overvalued now due to this perfect road record, and they certainly should not be laying 5 points on the road tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves given the spot.

The Spurs should have lost last night to the Bucks on the road, but they escaped with a 97-96 win as 6-point favorites.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 12 days.  Don't be surprised of Greg Popovich rests some of his key players here given the spot.

The Minnesota Timberwolves come in with momentum after erasing a 7-point deficit in the final minute to beat Charlotte on the road 125-120 in overtime.  Now the Timberwolves have had two days off in between games after beating the Hornets on Saturday.  This young team will be fresh and ready to go, and look for them to try to run the tired Spurs out of the gym.

"The way we're losing, not getting blown out but making mental errors late in the game, it hurt us. It hurts me, especially," Karl-Anthony Towns told the Star Tribune. "To have a win like that, I'm finally able to smile, laugh a lot more and have my spirits up."

Plays on underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.  Take the Timberwolves Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -5.5

The Detroit Pistons have been a great bet at home this season as they are 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 11.0 points per game.  They just returned one of their best players in starting PG Reggie Jackson, and he should continue to improve as the games go on.

We'll gladly fade the Chicago Bulls here in an awful spot.  The Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  They are coming off a 110-112 home loss to Portland last night after losing 82-107 in Dallas a couple nights before.  They are running on fumes right now and I don't expect much of an effort from them here.

The Pistons went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Bulls last season.  They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Chicago as well.  Their domination against the spread in this series should continue tonight given the awful spot here for the Bulls.

Detroit is 25-10 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 14-4 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two years.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +4.5

The Dallas Mavericks are an undervalued team right now because of their 4-15 record on the season.  But they are starting to get healthy and playing much better basketball as a result.  They are 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games, which included a 107-82 beat down of the Chicago Bulls at home on Saturday.

Wesley Matthews had a season-high 26 points in the win while making seven of 11 from 3-point range, giving him 19 3s in his past four games.  Deron Williams recently returned to the lineup and is averaging 10.9 points and six assists.  Having him back has been the biggest key to their recent success.  He had a whopping 15 assists against the Bulls.

I like this spot for the Mavs because they just played the Hornets on December 1st in a 87-97 road loss.  Now they get to face them only four days later and will be out for revenge.  Look for them to get that revenge with an outright win tonight, though we'll take the 4.5 points for some added insurance.

The Hornets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  Charlotte is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Hornets are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

20* Colts/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +1.5

The Jets may be just 3-8 this season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule and not their performance on the field.  They have played the 5th-toughest schedule this season.  Now things finally lighten up a bit for them as they play the Colts, 49ers and Dolphins over the next three weeks.  I think you'll see much better results from them going forward.

I know the Jets have lost three straight, but they've been in all three games as the losses have come by 4, 3 and 5 points.  They nearly beat the New England Patriots at home last week in a 17-22 loss after the Patriots scored late in the fourth quarter to take the lead for good.  While sometimes a team would be in for a letdown after facing the Patriots, that won't be the case tonight because teams always get up for Monday Night Football.

A big problem for the Jets has been turnovers as they rank 31st in the league in turnover differential (-14).  They have only eight takeaways all season, which is absurd.  Their defense is better than that as it ranks 15th in the NFL at 348.7 yards per game allowed.  Over the last three weeks the Jets have given up fewer than 5 yards per pass attempt in each game.

Andrew Luck has been sacked 36 times this season, and the Jets still have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. They should get after him here and should win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  The Colts rank 30th in total defense, giving up 27.4 points and 395.0 yards per game.  They rank 26th against the run and are giving up 4.6 yards per carry this season.  They are also 30th against the pass and 31st in yards per play allowed at 6.2.

Look for Matt Forte to get it going tonight and take some of the pressure off of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is still an average quarterback in this league despite the interceptions.  Forte has amassed 508 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns in his past five contests.  The Jets went to a short passing game against the Patriots last week and it worked.

Indianapolis may be in the playoff hunt at 5-6 on the season, but make no mistake, this is not a good team.  It has played the 6th-easiest schedule this season.  The Colts have been outgained in seven of their last eight games overall.  They rank 27th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 42.6 yards per game on average.  The Jets have only been outgained by 13.6 yards per game this season to compare.

The Jets are 2-0 against Andrew Luck in his career.  Luck has completed just 43 of 81 passes for 530 yards with one touchdown, five interceptions and a 52.0 career passer rating.  He has also been sacked five times.  Colts quarterbacks have been sacked 3.5 times per game this season.

New York is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 home games off a home loss.  The Jets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games in December.  Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Colts are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in New York.  Bet the Jets Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -2

The Atlanta Hawks are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight and nine of their last 10 games overall.  Eight of those 10 games were on the road, but they finally return home tonight where they are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS on the season.

The Oklahoma City Thunder come in overvalued after winning five straight games with Russell Westbrook recording a triple-double in all five.  They wins have come against the Nuggets, Knicks, Pistons, Wizards and Pelicans.  But now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after beating New Orleans 101-92 at home last night.

A big reason the Hawks have been struggling is because they have been without Paul Millsap, but there is a good chance he returns tonight.  Conversely, Steven Adams was injured yesterday and is unlikely to play for the Thunder tonight.  They will miss his presence inside if he can't go.

The Thunder are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Take the Hawks Monday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +20

This is a very bad spot for the Cincinnati Bearcats.  They are coming off a huge road win over nationally ranked Iowa State on Thursday, one of the toughest places to play in the country.  They will suffer a letdown here off that big win and won't bring the kind of effort it's going to take to cover this 20-point spread.

Not to mention, this is a sandwich game for the Bearcats as they have another huge game on deck.  They will be traveling to face another nationally ranked Butler team the next time they hit the floor.  They certainly could find themselves looking ahead to that showdown as well.

Bowling Green lost its first four games this season all by 16 points or fewer, including three by 8 points or less.  But the Falcons have responded with three straight victories, including two blowout wins by 32 and 26 points.  Now they've had four days off in between games to get ready for Cincinnati, while the Bearcats have only had two days off.

Bowling Green is 9-1 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 10-1 ATS versus poor 3-point shooting teams who make 31% or fewer of their attempts over the last three seasons. The Bearcats play a slow, grind-it-out style which favors big underdogs like the Falcons because there are fewer possessions.  Take Bowling Green Sunday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -2.5

The New York Knicks continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as just 2.5-point home favorites here Sunday against the Sacramento Kings.  The Knicks have gone 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are really starting to play well together.

It was going to take some time for all the new faces to gel in New York, but it appears that they have found their groove, especially offensively.  The Knicks have scored at least 102 points in nine consecutive games.  That has to be refreshing for Knick fans after points have been so hard to come by in previous seasons.  Jeff Hornacek is doing a tremendous job in his first season.

The Sacramento Kings are getting too much respect here.  They will be playing their 4th straight road game, and they are just 3-7 on the road this season.  The Knicks are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this year, defending their home court very well.

Sacramento is 6-23 ATS in its last 29 road games off two straight losses by 6 points or less.  New York is 54-28 ATS in its last 82 after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Bet the Knicks Sunday.

20* Giants/Steelers NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -5.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a dog fight with the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC North lead.  They are finally as healthy as they've been all season, and it is starting to show as they are coming off back-to-back blowout road wins over the Browns and Colts.  Now they've had extra time to prepare for this game after blasting Indianapolis on Thanksgiving Night.

The Steelers have outgained five straight opponents and seven of their last eight overall.  They are legitimately a Top 5 team in the NFL as they rank 5th in point differential, outscoring opponents by 44 points on the season despite dealing with injuries and suspensions to their best players.  But that is no longer an issue from them, and we'll see their best going forward given the position they are in in the AFC North.

The New York Giants are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL.  They are nowhere near as good as their 8-3 record would indicate.  They have only outscored their opponents by 18 points on the season, and 14 of those came last week against the Browns.  The key for them is that they've gone an unsustainable 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  No worries, this one won't be decided by that margin.

The Giants rank 25th in yardage differential on the season, which isn't something you would expect from an 8-3 team.  And they've certainly taken advantage of a very soft schedule.  The Giants have played the 5th-easiest schedule in the NFL, while the Steelers have played the 12th-toughest.

After losing back-to-back home games to the Patriots and Cowboys, the Steelers will get back on track in a big way at home here.  They haven't lost three straight at home since 2003.  Mike Tomlin is 56-21 all-time at Heinz Field and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 25 touchdowns against five interceptions in his past seven home games.  The Steelers' defense is at their best when the stop the run, and that won't be an issue because the Giants are 31st in rushing offense.

Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game over the past two seasons.  Tomlin is 20-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in December.  The Giants are 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Green Bay Packers -5.5

The Green Bay Packers came up with a season-saving victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football last week.  Not only did they win that game, they dominated, beating the Eagles 27-13 as 4-point dogs and outgaining them by 95 yards.

Now the Packers have new life as they are just two games back of the Detroit Lions for the division lead.  And the Vikings lost on Thursday to the Cowboys, while the Lions aren't likely to win in New Orleans this week.  That means a win Sunday would put the Packers just one game back in the division and with the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Lions having beaten them earlier this season.  They have everything to play for right now.

The Houston Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They may be 6-5 on the season, but they are nowhere near as good as their record.  They rank 28th in the NFL in yards per play differential.  A big reason for that is their terrible offense, which ranks 29th in total offense at 316.9 yards per game and 29th in scoring offense at 17.6 points per game.  The Texans also rank 31st in yards per play (4.8).

Houston has been a great home team, but it has been a different story on the road.  The Texans are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season, getting outscored by 13.4 points per game in the process.  Their offense is only scoring 13.2 points per game and averaging 279.2 yards per game on the road.  And their only road win this season came against the Jaguars when the Texans were coming off their bye week.

Brock Osweiler simply isn't going to be able to match Aaron Rodgers score for score.  Osweiler is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt with a 12-to-13 TD/INT ratio.  Rodgers looked great against the Eagles with the short passing game, taking pressure off the defense, which he will continue to do this week.  And he also has the threat of a running game now with a healthy James Starks, which is something the Packers haven't had for much of the season.

The Packers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Green Bay is 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  I expect one of the best performances of the season from Green Bay this week against the hapless Texans.  Take the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3.5

The Atlanta Falcons are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL this season.  They have gone 7-4 despite playing the NFL's toughest schedule to this point.  And all four of their losses have come by single-digits.  They rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.0 yards per play on the season.

The Falcons are 3rd in total offense and 1st in yards per play.  They average 6.6 yards per play every time they snap the football.  They beat Arizona 38-19 at home last week.  What I liked about that win was that Julio Jones was held to 35 receiving yards, yet they still scored 38 points.  That just goes to show you how dynamic this offense is as there are weapons everywhere.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the most fraudulent team in the NFL.  Just look at last week when they turned a safety into 9 points after Tyreke Hill returned a punt for a TD on the next play.  They were outgained by 191 yards by the Broncos last week.  Their offense averaged just 3.3 yards per play in that game, and their defense games up 6.7 yards per play to the Broncos.  They were lucky to win that game to say the least.

The Chiefs now rank 30th in the NFL in yardage differential.  They're getting outgained by 54 yards per game on average.  They also rank 27th in yards per play differential.  They lead the league in turnover differential at +14, and it just seems that if their defense or special teams doesn't score for them, they can't win.  I just don't trust these types of teams.

This is also an awful spot for the Chiefs.  They are coming off an emotional OT win on Sunday Night Football against the Broncos, and now they have a huge game against division-leading Oakland on deck Thursday.  That makes this a sandwich game for them.

Road teams who are coming off an overtime game are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS while losing by 16.7 points per game in their last nine tries.  Kansas City is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. excellent passing teams who average 7.5 or more yards per attempt.  The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -6.5

The Portland Trail Blazers had a team meeting about their defense before their last game and will be a 'play on' team for me going forward for a few games.  They have come together and are way undervalued right now after losing six of their last nine games overall.

But the Blazers responded in a big way in their first game after addressing the issue, beating the Pacers 131-109 as 7.5-point home favorites.  Now they are hosting a worse Miami Heat team and only laying 6.5 points here tonight, clearly showing that they remain undervalued.

Miami comes in overvalued after winning back-to-back road games at Denver and Utah.  But the Nuggets are playing terrible right now and are banged-up, while the Jazz were missing three of their best players in George Hill, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors.  The Heat's road winning streak comes to an end here in a big way, especially since they'll be without key players Justice Winslow, Dion Waiters, Josh Richardson and Luke Babbitt, and they could be without Derrick Williams as well.

The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Blazers have won by 17 and 16 points in their last two home meetings with the Heat.  Miami is 13-27 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.  Plays against any team (MIAMI) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Take the Blazers Saturday.

20* College Football GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +3

You pretty much have to wipe out what Penn State did in the first part of the season because they weren’t healthy. But since that ugly loss in Michigan, the Nittany Lions have gotten healthier every week, and the result has been an 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS run to close out the season.  They have beaten the spread by a combined 131 points during this stretch!

Not only have the Nittany Lions been winning, they’ve been dominating. They have won five straight games by at least 14 points, which dates back to their 24-21 upset of Ohio State. Many thought that win was a fluke, but with five straight wins by 14 points since, I believe the Nittany Lions have more than proved their naysayers wrong.

The biggest difference for Penn State has been the health of its defense. They now have one of the best defensive lines in the country, and after being without their top five linebackers against Michigan, they have gotten back their two best starters in Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell. They have given up an average of just 17.8 points per game in their last eight games.

At the same time, the Penn State offense just keeps improving. They have scored at least 39 points in five straight games coming in, which is impressive when you consider they’ve been up against some solid defenses in the likes of Iowa, Indiana and Michigan State. They are averaging 46.4 points per game over their last five.

Wisconsin checks in on a six-game winning streak of its own. Give the Badgers credit for their great season thus far, but I’m still not completely sold on this team. Four of their wins have come by a touchdown or less. And they were extremely lucky to beat Minnesota last week after falling behind 7-17 at halftime. The Gophers gave that game away by throwing four interceptions in the second half alone.

I think the fact that this game will be played indoors in Lucas Oil Stadium clearly favors Penn State. The elements won’t be an issue, which usually benefits Wisconsin playing outdoors. The better passing team has a huge advantage indoors, and it’s clear that Penn State is the better passing team with more big-play potential.

The Nittany Lions are averaging 251 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt against teams that only give up 204 yards per game and 6.8 per attempt. Wisconsin only averages 180 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt against teams that give up 202 yards per game and 6.6 per attempt.

Wisconsin prefers to run the ball, but Penn State has been tremendous against the run since getting healthy. The Nittany Lions have only allowed 66.8 rushing yards per game and 2.0 yards per carry in their last five games overall. They will be ready for the test of going up against this Wisconsin rushing attack.

It’s worth noting that Wisconsin could be without quarterback Alex Hornibrook, who may not play due to a concussion suffered against Minnesota last week. He and Bart Houston have split time this season as they’ve played with two quarterbacks down the stretch. It certainly has worked for them, so if he can’t go that would throw a little wrinkle into Wisconsin’s plans at the position.

Penn State is scoring 40.4 points per game during its 8-game winning streak.  It has the game-changing playmakers in this one in Saquon Barkley, Chris Godwin and QB Trace McSorley that will make all the difference.  The underdog has covered all five Big Ten Championship Games while winning three outright.  The Nittany Lions are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Clemson/VA Tech ACC Championship No-Brainer on OVER 58.5

This ACC Championship Game has been moved from Charlotte to Orlando.  Why is that a big deal for the OVER?  Well, Charlotte is a grass field with colder weather and not ideal for scoring conditions.  The surface in Orlando will be on a fast artificial track, and the weather is going to see a high of 75 on Saturday.  That's ideal scoring conditions.

Clemson is going to hang a big number here.  The Tigers got their wake-up call from Pitt a few weeks back, but the offense has been humming since.  They scored 28 points in the first half against a good Wake Forest defense the following week before taking their foot off the gas.  Then they hung 56 on a decent South Carolina defense last week.

Deshaun Watson threw six touchdown passes in that win over South Carolina.  He has an outside shot of stealing the Heisman Trophy from Lamar Jackson now that Louisville faltered down the stretch.  And you know Clemson is going to give Watson every opportunity to put up a big stat line in this game to pad his stats, just as they did last week.  This is a Clemson offense that is putting up 40.0 points and 507 yards per game on the season.

First-year coach Justin Fuente has done a tremendous job of improving the previously stagnant VA Tech offense.  The Hokies are putting up 35.0 points and 453 yards per game this season. That’s a huge improvement from the last few years under Frank Beamer. Jerod Evans is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback who has completed 63.8 percent of his passes for 3,045 yards with 26 touchdowns and only five interceptions, while also leading the team in rushing with 713 yards and eight scores.

Clemson still has a good defense, but it has been susceptible to offenses a similar caliber to this Virginia Tech unit.  The Tigers allowed 36 points to Louisville, 34 to Florida State and 43 to Pittsburgh.  I think Virginia Tech can come close to the 30-point mark in this one.

Clemson figures to hang a big number on what is a good VA Tech defense, but also one that has struggled at times this year.  The Hokies allowed 45 points to Tennessee, 31 to Syracuse, 36 to Pitt, 30 to Georgia Tech and 31 to Notre Dame, so they've given up at least 30 points five times.

Clemson should get to roughly 40 as we see somewhere in the neighborhood of a 40-30 final.  The Tigers have scored at least 35 points in each of their last five games while the Hokies have scored at least 34 points seven times against FBS foes this season.  VA Tech hung 52 on Virginia just last week to go along with 579 yards of total offense.

The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-1 in Tigers last five games overall.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Hokies last five neutral site games.  The OVER is 6-2 in Hokies last eight games following a win of more than 20 points.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

This is the classic home-and-home situation.  The Nets lost to the Bucks 93-111 at home on Thursday.  Now they're playing just two days later, and I'm almost always inclined to take the team that lost the first meeting because they're going to be the more motivated team.

I really like when the home team loses and then taking them on the road in the second meeting.  That's because we get more value, and that's the case here with the Nets catching 9.5 points.  This is a game that they could win outright as they are very familiar with the Bucks having played them twice already, and I can't see the Bucks being too motivated to beat them a 3rd time this year.

Adding to the value is the fact that Milwaukee is overvalued right now due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall coming in.  That includes a win over the defending champion Cavaliers.  But now the Bucks have the Spurs on deck and certainly could be looking ahead to that game.

Milwaukee is 3-17 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 2-11 ATS off three or more consecutive wins over the last three years.  The Bucks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Rivalry Play on Rhode Island -2.5

The Rhode Island Rams have had this game circled on their calendars all offseason.  They are legitimately the better team in this rivalry game for the first time in years, and they should win.

The Rams will be motivated to end a six-game losing streak to Providence.  The last three meetings were decided by a combined 11 points, including a 74-72 home loss last year, so they have been right there with a chance to win.  2016 is when they get over the top.

Providence is in rebuilding mode this year after losing its two best players in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil.  Rhode Island is a legit Top 25 team this year with four starters back from last season plus the return of EC Matthews, their best player.

Providence is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 home games after allowing 25 points or fewer in the first half of its previous game.  Rhode Island's only two losses came on the road to both Duke (by 10) and Valpo (by 3).  The Rams won't be losing their third game here.  Take Rhode Island Saturday.

15* WVU/Virginia ESPNU Saturday No-Brainer on West Virginia +10

West Virginia should not be a double-digit underdog here against Virginia.  The Mountaineers have been rolling with the exception of a 4-point upset loss to Temple a few games back, and that result has them undervalued right now.

Virginia continues to be overvalued due to its 7-0 start.  It failed to cover against a down Providence team in a 63-62 win as 12-point favorites on a neutral court.  Then last time out the Cavaliers were lucky to beat Ohio State 63-61 as 12-point home favorites.

WVU has had four full days to prepare for Virginia, while the Cavaliers have only had two days to prepare for the Mountaineers after playing Ohio State on Wednesday.  That's a huge disadvantage for the Cavaliers because the Mountaineers' aggressive, pressing style is tough to prepare for.

Virginia is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 games off a home win by 3 points or less.  West Virginia is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. excellent defensive teams that allow 35% shooting or less.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ball State -5.5

The Ball State Cardinals are going to be one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  They brought back four starters from last season and almost all of their best players.  They are 4-3 this season with their only losses coming to three good teams in Indiana State, Alabama and Valpo with two of those on the road.

IUPUI is clearly a mess this season off to a 2-5 start while going 0-5 in road games, getting outscored by 12.8 points per game away from home.  They have lost to Illinois State by 14, Eastern Kentucky by 10, Marqutte by 25 and Michigan by 12.  Perhaps their most concerning loss was a 58-61 setback at SIU-Edwardsville as 7-point favorites.

Plays on a favorite (BALL ST) - an excellent offensive team (at least 76 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-76 PPG), after allowing 55 points or less are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Roll with Ball State Saturday.

15* LA Tech/WKU C-USA Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +10

This line is a classic overreaction from what happened the week before.  Western Kentucky won 60-6 at Marshall, easily covering the 28-point spread.  Louisiana Tech lost 24-39 at Southern Miss, not even coming close to covering the 14.5-point spread.

But last week's LA Tech result can be thrown out the window.  It had already clinched the C-USA West Division, so that was a clear letdown spot in a game that didn't matter.  And Southern Miss is a way better team than its record would indicate and treated that game like it was their Super Bowl.  The Bulldogs were clearly looking ahead to the C-USA Championship Game, and they'll bring their 'A' game this week.

Western Kentucky didn't have the same luxury of taking last week off.  It was in a first-place tie with Old Dominion for the East Division title, so it needed to beat Marshall, which is a team that quit in the second half of the season.  The motivated Hilltoppers took care of business like they were supposed to and won the East division on a tiebreaker thanks to their head-to-head victory over Old Dominion.

Western Kentucky has played a ridiculously easy schedule down the stretch, which also has it overvalued.  The last four games have been against Florida Atlantic, Florida International, North Texas and Marshall, who are a combined 15-33 on the season.  This is going to be a huge step up in class for the Hilltoppers.

The last two meetings between these teams have been decided by a field goal.  WKU won 41-38 at home in 2015 as 2.5-point dogs, while LA Tech won 55-52 as 2.5-point dogs back on October 6th earlier this season.  But that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bulldogs actually led that game 49-24 and had to hold on late for the victory.  They outgained the Hilltoppers 561 to 427 for the game, or by 134 total yards.

Ryan Higgins threw for 454 yards and five touchdowns in that first meeting with Western Kentucky.  He's one of the best quarterbacks in the country that many of you have probably never heard of.  He is completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,706 yards with 34 touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging 9.3 per attempt.

Higgins has two elite receivers on the outside who have had monster seasons.  Trent Taylor is the possession receiver, catching 113 balls for 1,462 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Carlos Henderson is the big-play guy, catching 63 balls for 1,204 yards and 16 scores.  With this high-powered offense, the Bulldogs are never going to be out of this game, and the back door is always going to be open if they fall behind early.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISIANA TECH) - in conference games, off an upset loss as a double digit favorite are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS since 1992.  The Bulldogs are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.

25* ESPN Friday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver Nuggets -2.5

This is my favorite play of the young NBA season thus far.  We'll take the Denver Nuggets as slim 2.5-point home favorites over the Houston Rockets in a game that you'll get to watch on ESPN tonight.  This game has the makings of a blowout in favor of the home team for a number of reasons.

First, Houston just beat Golden State in double-OT last night 132-127.  This is a tired team right now because of it at James Harden played 46 minutes, Ryan Anderson played 45 and Trevor Ariza played 43.  They won't have anything left to give tonight against the Nuggets.

Second, this is obviously a letdown spot for the Rockets now.  They just went on the road and beat the team that everyone expects to win the NBA title this season.  They won't be able to get up for the Nuggets here, and the spot is even tougher since they will be playing in altitude in the Mile High City.

Third, the Nuggets come in pissed off after a bad home loss to the Miami Heat last time out.  They gave the game away by committing 19 turnovers after previously fixing that problem by giving it away 12 or fewer times in four of their previous five contests.

Fourth, the Nuggets are getting healthy as Will Barton and Darrell Arthur are both expected to be available tonight.  Only Gary Harris is out for certain, so they're as healthy as they've been all season.  Barton didn't play in the loss to the Heat and is a huge weapon for them offensively.

Fifth, Denver has had Houston's number recently, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Houston is 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings overall, and 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Denver.  The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games over the past two seasons.  The Rockets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

20* Colorado/Washington Pac-12 No-Brainer on UNDER 58

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between Washington and Colorado in the Pac-12 title game.  These are two of the best defenses in the Pac-12, and they are the reason these teams were able to make the championship game.  I think points will be at a premium here as both defenses come to play once again.

Washington gives up just 17.8 points per game, 329 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  It is holding opponents to 11.3 points, 82 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play less than their season averages.  Colorado gives up 18.7 points, 323 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  It is holding opponents to 11.0 points, 88 yards per game and 1.1 per play less than their season averages.

The Huskies rely heavily on their passing attack, but the Buffaloes have one of the best secondary's in the country.  The Huskies average 280 passing yards per game, while the Buffaloes allow just 186 passing yards per game, 5.4 per attempt and 48.5% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  They actually have the manpower in the secondary to match up with John Ross and Dante Pettis, who have combined for 30 touchdown receptions for the Huskies this season.

The UNDER is 10-3 in Buffaloes last 13 conference games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Buffaloes last seven neutral site games. Washington is 12-2 UNDER when the total is between 56 and 63.5 over the past three seasons.  We're seeing an average of only 48.4 combined points per game in this spot.

The Buffaloes have held eight straight opponents to 24 points or fewer.  The Huskies have held all 12 of their opponents to 27 points or fewer.  If both of those come true again in this game, then this one will easily stay UNDER the 58-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.