15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU -4.5 

UConn is coming off two straight upset wins at Tulsa and at home in overtime against Cincinnati.  Their luck runs out tonight on the road against a SMU team that is much their superior tonight. 

SMU has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the American Athletic because they are the furthest team West in the conference.  The Mustangs are 12-1 at home this season and winning by 14.2 points per game.  That includes a 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS record in AAC home games with all five victories by 7 points or more and by an average of 15.2 points per game. 

SMU is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with UConn with all five wins coming by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.2 points per game.  UConn is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games when playing its 3rd game in a week.  It will be just the 3rd game in 11 days for the Mustangs tonight.  The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet SMU Wednesday.  

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia -4 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after winning four straight and covering five straight coming in.  Three of those wins were at home against bad Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and Pitt teams.  The only road win came at Clemson without their best player. 

This is a much tougher challenge tonight for the Fighting Irish facing the defending national champs who are starting to play their best basketball of the season.  Virginia has won three of its last four with its only loss coming by 7 at Louisville as 7-point dogs.  They beat a very good Florida State team at home. 

Virginia comes in on two days’ rest after playing on Saturday while Notre Dame only has one day to get ready for the Cavaliers after playing on Sunday.  That’s a huge advantage here for the home team that isn’t being factored into the line enough. 

Virginia owns Notre Dame, going 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Fighting Irish are 0-7 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after two straight games committing eight or fewer turnovers.  Take Virginia Tuesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -3 

The Kansas State Wildcats come in highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three straight and have been victims of a brutal schedule.  That schedule finally eases up tonight as they face arguably the worst team in the conference in Oklahoma State. 

The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, so they have been competitive despite the losses.  They only lost by 3 at Alabama as 9.5-point dogs, by 9 at WVU as 13.5-point dogs, by 6 at home to Baylor as 7-point dogs and by 10 at Iowa State.  They also won and covered in an 8-point home win over Oklahoma as 2-point favorites. 

Oklahoma State is just 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in Big 12 games this season.  Kansas State owns Oklahoma State, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while outscoring the Cowboys by an average of 17.8 points per game.  Three of the four wins came by double-digits. 

Kansas State is 6-0 ATS in home games after covering three of their last four ATS over the last two seasons.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.  The favorite is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans have won five of their last seven with their only losses coming on the road to Houston and at home to Milwaukee.  The beat the Celtics by 15 and Grizzlies by 28 in their other two home games and also won three road games at Indiana, Chicago and Cleveland. 

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Blazers, whose two losses came in their last two road games at Denver and Utah by a combined 31 points.  The Blazers are just 10-18 on the road this season. 

New Orleans has won both meetings with Portland this season.  The Pelicans won 115-104 at home and 102-94 on the road.  The Blazers have all kinds of injuries, while the only player that might not play tonight for the Pelicans is Brandon Ingram, who is questionable with an ankle injury after sitting out last game.  It didn’t matter as the Pelicans upset the Pacers 124-117 as 5.5-point road dogs. 

The Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Pelicans are rested and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest.  New Orleans is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games playing on two days rest.  The Pelicans are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Rhode Island +10 

The Dayton Flyers are 21-2 and the No. 6 ranked team in the country.  With that record and ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very tough to live up to.  The Flyers should not be double-digit favorites against a very good Rhode Island team tonight. 

We’ve seen the odds catch up to the Flyers as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only won by 4 at Duquesne as 8-point favorites, won by 14 at home over Fordham as 24-point favorites and only won by 6 at home over Saint Louis as 14-point favorites. 

Rhode Island is the second-best team in the conference.  The Rams are 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in Atlantic 10 games this season.  They have won 10 straight coming in, including a 31-point win at George Washington on Saturday.  They also beat VCU by 12 and by 9 in their two meetings, and they topped Duquesne by 22, which are two of the other best teams in this conference.  They have proven they can hang with a team of Dayton’s caliber. 

The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Rhode Island is 11-3 ATS vs. teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Roll with Rhode Island Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5 

I have no doubt we’re going to get a big effort from the San Antonio Spurs tonight for a couple different reasons.  They are catching too many points at Denver as a result tonight. 

The Spurs have opened 0-4 on this annual Rodeo Road Trip and are desperate for a victory.  They also want revenge after getting knocked out by the Nuggets in Game 7 of the opening round of the playoffs last year.  This is their first meeting of the season and their first shot at revenge. 

Injuries have definitely been a problem for the Nuggets here of late.  They are without Will Barton, Michael Porter Jr. and Mason Plumlee right now to hurt their depth.  And it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Nuggets after they have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. 

Denver is 6-15 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  San Antonio is 43-23 ATS in its last 66 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  San Antonio is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Spurs are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 trips to Denver.  Take the Spurs Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -6.5 

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost a season-high five straight coming into this game and are desperate for a victory.  Look for them to handle their business against the Brooklyn Nets tonight. 

Victor Oladipo recently returned from injury and the chemistry has been off for the Pacers.  But now that he has five games under his belt, he should start returning to form sooner rather than later.  And the Pacers just got leading scorer TJ Warren (18.2 PPG) back from injury after missing three games.  They are fully healthy as a team for the first time all season. 

The Nets are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers tonight after going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But those four wins all came at home against four of the worst teams in the league in the Pistons, Bulls, Suns and Warriors.  They have lost their last three road games to the Pistons, Wizards and Raptors.  So they have played a very soft schedule here of late. 

Indiana owns Brooklyn, going 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Brooklyn is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog.  Indiana is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* FSU/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +8.5 

Duke is coming off its shocking 98-96 road win over its biggest rival in North Carolina Saturday night.  This is a massive letdown spot for the Blue Devils despite the fact that they are playing a ranked Florida State team. 

The Blue Devils trailed that game against UNC for like 95% of the game and only led in overtime.  The fact that they had to go to OT makes them less fresh.  They gave it all to come back from a double-digit deficit in the final few minutes of regulation, and a 5-point deficit in the final 21 seconds of OT. 

Florida State should still be fresh after crushing Miami 99-81 as 13.5-point home favorites on Saturday.  Plus, this is just the 2nd game in 7 days for the Seminoles.  They are the much deeper of these two teams as Leonard Hamilton consistently plays 10-plus players.  That depth is a huge advantage for the Seminoles tonight. 

The Seminoles are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Duke is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Roll with Florida State Monday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson PK 

The Clemson Tigers are highly motivated for a victory.  They are coming off back-to-back road losses to Wake Forest and Virginia.  Now they’re back home and hosting Notre Dame in a game they just have to win to cover. 

Clemson is 4-0 in its last four ACC home games with wins over Syracuse, Duke, NC State and Wake Forest.  I think we get a big effort from the Tigers here Sunday. 

Notre Dame is getting too much respect from oddsmakers off three straight wins and four straight covers.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Fighting Irish as those three wins all came at home against some of the worst teams in the ACC in Wake, Georgia Tech and Pitt. 

The Fighting Irish are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 31 games following an ATS win.  The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Clemson Sunday. 

15* Celtics/Thunder NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -1 

The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to lack the respect they deserve as basically a pick ‘em at home against the Boston Celtics tonight.  The Thunder are 21-6 SU in their last 27 games overall and playing as well as almost anyone. 

The Celtics also come in playing well having won six straight.  But four of those six wins were at home and it has come against a pretty soft schedule with victories over the Hawks (twice), Magic and Warriors.  This is a big step up in class for the Celtics tonight. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Boston) - a good team outscoring opponents by 6-plus points per game, after three straight games where both teams scored 100 or more points are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Thunder are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Oklahoma City is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  Take the Thunder Sunday. 

15* Wichita State/Houston ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Wichita State +5 

I love the spot for the Wichita State Shockers Sunday.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on a Shockers team coming off two straight losses and one that is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

Wichita State wants revenge from a 54-65 home loss to Houston in which they shot just 30.4% from the floor.  I have no doubt the Shockers will want this game more due to the revenge factor and coming off two straight losses by a combined 4 points. 

It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on Houston, which has made backers a lot of money over the last month or so.  The Cougars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  I faded them with success last time out on Tulane +16.5, and I’ll fade them again Sunday. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Wichita State) - off a conference loss by 3 points or less against an opponent that failed to cover but win SU as a favorite in their last game are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Shockers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog.  Wichita State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 Sunday games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Wichita State Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -8 

Fading the Timberwolves is the gift that keeps on giving.  They are 0-13 SU & 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They just made a desperate move and traded away Andrew Wiggins for D’Angelo Russell, who likely won’t play tonight with a quad injury.  They have also traded away Jeff Teague and Robert Covington, and the players left outside of Karl-Anthony Towns is a mess. 

The Clippers are starting to play up to their potential as they are 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Five of those wins have come by double-digits, and they should have no time putting away Minnesota by doubles tonight as well.  They come in on two days’ rest so they should be fresh and ready to go. 

Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on two days’ rest.  Minnesota is 0-8 ATS in home games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Timberwolves are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.  The Clippers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Minnesota.  Bet the Clippers Saturday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Illinois -3 

Southern Illinois comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  The Salukis are 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall and a real contender to win the Missouri Valley Conference. 

No team has a bigger home-court advantage in the conference than the Salukis this season.  They are 11-1 SU & 10-1-1 ATS at home and holding opponents to just 56.0 points per game and 38.5% shooting. 

Missouri State is just 3-9 in all games played away from home this season.  They have lost three of their last four coming in with their only win coming at home against lowly Illinois State.  They are just 5-17 SU in their last 22 trips to Southern Illinois. 

Southern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  The Salukis are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games, including 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite.  Bet Southern Illinois Saturday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on New York Knicks PK 

The New York Knicks have quietly gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have also won three straight with road wins over the Pacers and Cavaliers as well as a home win over the Magic. 

The Knicks are rested and ready to continue their solid play as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The same cannot be said for the Pistons, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is as difficult a situation as you’ll see in the NBA today. 

Detroit is just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Pistons had to go to the wire with the Thunder yesterday in a 101-108 loss.  And they have a plethora of injuries right now with Griffin and Kennard out, plus Rose, Morris and Mykhaiiluk all questionable.  And they just traded away Andre Drummond. 

The Knicks are 15-6 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season.  The Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game.  The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest.  Roll with the Knicks Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida Atlantic -2.5 

I love the spot for Florida Atlantic today.  The Owls face a home-and-home situation with rival Florida International here.  They lost 50-69 on Wednesday at FIU as 3-point dogs.  And now they’ll be out for revenge just three days later here and I expect them to get their payback at home this time around. 

Both of these teams have huge home-court advantages.  Florida Atlantic is 12-1 at home this season with its only loss coming by 3 points to UAB.  FIU Is 11-1 at home this year but just 5-7 in all road games.  The Golden Panthers are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games with all four losses coming by 14 points or more. 

Florida Atlantic is 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games off an ATS loss.  Florida Atlantic is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Roll with Florida Atlantic Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana -2 

I love the spot for the Indiana Hoosiers today.  They are highly motivated for a win following three straight losses.  And they have had a full week off having last played Saturday, so they are fresh and ready to go. 

The three losses are easily explainable as two of them came on the road to Penn State and Ohio State and the other they blew a 6-point lead in the final minute to fall 76-77 to Maryland, which owns the best record in the Big Ten. 

Indiana is 12-2 at home this season.  They host a Purdue team that is just 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS in true road games this season with its only wins coming at Ohio and at Northwestern by 3.  They lost at Marquette by 10, at Nebraska by 14, at Illinois by 26, at Michigan by 6, at Maryland by 7 and and Rutgers by 7. 

Purdue is 0-6 ATS in conference road games this season.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Boilermakers are 2-11 ATS in road games off a conference win over the last two seasons.  Purdue only has two days to get ready for the Hoosiers after beating Iowa at home Wednesday.  Bet Indiana Saturday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Saint Louis +13.5 

Saint Louis wants revenge from a 76-78 (OT) home loss to Dayton on January 17th.  They get their shot at revenge now catching a whopping 13.5 points on the road in the rematch. This is simply too many points tonight. 

I think the Billikens come in undervalued off their loss to Duquesne on Wednesday as 4.5-point home favorites.  It’s pretty easy to see they were overlooking to Duquesne and looking ahead to this showdown with Dayton.  And it’s worth noting that Duquesne is one of the best teams in the conference and also only lost to Dayton by 4. 

Simply put, it’s time to ’sell high’ on Dayton.  We’re starting to see the Flyers overvalued due to being a Top 10 team and winning 11 straight coming in.  But they failed to cover their last two games winning by just 4 at Duquesne as 8-point favorites and by 14 at home over a bad Fordham team as 24-point favorites. 

Dayton is 2-10 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Billikens are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  Saint Louis is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens will rise to the occasion and give the Flyers a run for their money.  Take Saint Louis Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M +8 

Buzz Williams has the Texas A&M Aggies improving rapidly in his first season on the job.  What has been most impressive is how well the Aggies have played on the road in conference play. 

Indeed, the Aggies are 4-1 ATS in SEC road games this season.  They beat Vanderbilt by 19 as 3.5-point dogs, upset Missouri as 10-point dogs and upset Tennessee as 9.5-point dogs.  They can certainly hang with South Carolina Saturday. 

The Gamecocks only have two days to get ready for Texas A&M after losing 70-84 at Ole Miss on Wednesday.  The Aggies last played on Tuesday and get an extra day of prep for this contest.  I think it’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Gamecocks, who have covered six of their last eight coming in.

Texas A&M is also out for revenge from a 67-81 home loss to South Carolina on January 18th just a few weeks ago.  Well, it was the best shooting game of the season for the Gamecocks as they went 16-of-30 (53.3%) from 3-point range, while Texas A&M was just 3-of-14 (21.4%).  It was a complete aberration as the Gamecocks average just 6 made 3’s per game this season and shoot it at a 31.3% clip.  It’s not going to happen again.

South Carolina is 4-15 ATS after having won four or five of its last six games over the past three seasons.  The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.  Texas A&M is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a dog overall.  The Gamecocks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Texas A&M Saturday. 

20* Raptors/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +1 

I love the spot for the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They are coming off three straight losses and highly motivated for a victory.  Look for them to handle their business at home, where they are 18-7 SU on the season. 

Adding to their motivation is this home-and-home situation after they lost a 118-119 heartbreaker in Toronto Wednesday night.  Not only did they lose, they blew a 19-point lead in that game.  Now they get their shot at revenge just two days later, and I look for them to take advantage. 

Toronto is getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after winning 12 straight games coming in.  This is a great time to ’sell high’ on them knowing that the Pacers will be the more motivated team in this matchup to avenge that 1-point loss. 

Indiana is 35-21 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last three seasons.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 15-1 SU in the last 16 meetings.  And Indiana just has to win to cover tonight.  Take the Pacers Friday. 

20* Maryland/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -2 

The Illinois Fighting Illini want revenge from a tough 58-59 loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season.  I think we are getting Illinois at a tremendous value as only 2-point favorites at home in the rematch. 

Illinois has been the best team in the Big Ten over the last month.  The Fighting Illini are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their only loss came on the road at Iowa last time out after they blew a big lead in the first half.  The Fighting Illini are 12-1 at home this season and winning by 18.7 points per game. 

Illinois also has the rest advantage as they come in on four days’ rest after last playing on Sunday while Maryland is on just two days’ rest after playing on Tuesday.  And I have no doubt the Terrapins come in overvalued after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS I their last five games overall coming in. 

Maryland is just 2-4 SU in its last six true road games with its only wins coming at lowly Northwestern and at Indiana by 1 after they erased a 6-point deficit in the final minute.  They won’t be so fortunate tonight against arguably the best team in the Big Ten in Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Bet Illinois Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies +6 

The Memphis Grizzlies are the gift that keeps on giving.  The Grizzlies are 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall with several impressive wins against the league’s top teams alone the way.  And they’re still lacking the respect they deserve from oddsmakers tonight. 

It’s a great spot to fade the Philadelphia 76ers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 101-112 loss at Milwaukee last night.  The 76ers won’t be nearly as motivated as they were to face the Bucks, and they won’t have much left in the tank to deal with a Grizzlies team that plays at one of the fastest tempos in the NBA. 

It’s a 76ers team in turmoil.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with all four losses coming by double-digits.  The injury to their best shooter in Josh Richardson hurts, and they are going through some changes with the trades they made to get Glenn Robinson III and Alec Burks.  It’s going to take them a while to gel even if those two play tonight. 

Philadelphia is 1-8 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  Memphis is 15-4 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make at least 46% of their shots this season.  The Grizzlies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games off an ATS win.  The 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Roll with the Grizzlies Friday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulane +16.5 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Tulane Green Wave.  They have gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and are now catching a whopping 16.5 points at Houston because of it.  They have dropped below .500 for the first time this season and will be highly motivated tonight. 

Houston is coming off a tough 62-64 road loss at Cincinnati, which is one of their biggest challengers to win the AAC this season.  It’s the type of loss that will be hard to get over, and the Cougars may not be 100% focused tonight, especially playing a team that has lost five straight coming in like Tulane. 

The Cougars will be without one of their best players in Dejon Jarreau (9.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.9 APG), who does a little bit of everything for this team.  He has been suspended for biting a Cincinnati player.  Quentin Grimes (12.0 PPG) is battling a hip injury, though he is expected to play tonight. 

Tulane is 14-4 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games over the last two seasons.  The Green Wave are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Tulane is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.  The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS after making 78% of their free throws or better this season.  The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with Tulane Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are coming off two straight tough losses to the Rockets and Bucks in which they were competitive for four quarters.  Look for them to bounce back tonight against the lowly Chicago Bulls. 

The Pelicans have been playing well for nearly two months.  They are 13-8 SU & 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  And now they are as healthy as they have been all season, making them a dangerous team moving forward.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Chicago. 

Few teams have been hit as hard by injuries as the Bulls.  It’s a big reason they are just 6-13 SU & 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  Their last three losses have come by 27, 15 and 9 points coming in.  They are without Markkanen, Carter Jr., Porter Jr., Dunn, Gafford and Valentine right now. 

New Orleans is 13-4 ATS in road games off a home loss over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 2-11 ATS in home games when playing 4 or fewer games in 10 days over the last two years.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%.  The Bulls are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog.  Chicago is 17-37 ATS in its last 54 home games.  Take the Pelicans Thursday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +3 

I really like the spot for the New York Knicks tonight.  They come in on two days’ rest and are playing their best basketball of the season.  The Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and should not be home underdogs to the Orlando Magic tonight. 

They face a tired, banged-up Magic team that is just 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Magic are coming off a 100-116 loss in Boston last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days. 

New York is 13-2 ATS in home games after having won two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Knicks are 14-6 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this year.  The Magic are 0-8 ATS in their last eight when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Knicks Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota -3 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers come in highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three of their last four coming in against a brutal schedule as they were a dog in all four games and actually did well to win one. 

They lost on the road to Rutgers and Illinois as well as a home to Michigan State.  But they pulled the upset at Ohio State.  Now they are back home here where they are 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season.  That includes are 4-1 home record with wins over Ohio State by 13, Northwestern by 9, Michigan by 8 and Penn State by 6. 

Wisconsin is in an obvious letdown spot off its 64-63 upset home win over Michigan State on Saturday.  The Badgers are 0-3 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three road games, losing by 12 at Michigan State, by 19 at Purdue and by 6 at Iowa. 

Minnesota is 14-5 ATS in home games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Gophers are 12-3 ATS off a road loss over the last two years.  Minnesota is 8-0 ATS off a road loss where it scored 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Gophers are 7-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Badgers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Gophers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.  Take Minnesota Wednesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +5 

The Dallas Mavericks are without their best player in Luka Doncic (28.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 8.7 APG) as well as Dwight Powell (9.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG).  They could be without both Seth Curry (10.8 PPG) and JJ Barea (8.9 PPG), who are both questionable tonight. 

I realize the Mavericks have played well without Donic.  They are coming off a shocking upset win at Indiana as 5.5-point dogs.  But I think that has them overvalued here tonight against a Memphis Grizzlies team that I have no doubt is better than them without Doncic, Powell and potentially Curry and Barea. 

The Grizzlies are 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight following a 14-point home win over the Pistons.  I just love the way this team is playing right now as they continue to be undervalued. 

Memphis is 14-4 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% or more of their shots this season.  The Mavericks are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and have actually fared much better on the road than at home this season.  Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six games and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games off an ATS win.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday. 

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Saint Louis -4.5 

Saint Louis wants revenge from one of its worst losses of the season.  The Billikens fell 59-73 at Duquesne as 2.5-point dogs on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  Now the Billikens get the Dukes at home this time around. 

Saint Louis is 11-2 at home this season with one of its losses coming to one of the best teams in the country in Dayton by 2 in overtime.  The Billikens are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Duquesne.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  They will protect their home court tonight and get revenge in blowout fashion. 

The Dukes have really fallen off since that win over Saint Louis.  They are 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their three wins coming in narrow fashion against three of the worst teams in the Atlantic 10.  They beat George Washington by 5, Fordham by 2 as an 18-point home favorite and La Salle by 2 as a 9.5-point home favorite.  They also lost by 22 at Rhode Island and by 9 at Umass as a 5.5-point favorite. 

Saint Louis is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games off two straight road games.  The Dukes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Duquesne is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Saint Louis is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Saint Louis Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois -3.5 

Fading Evansville has been an absolute ATM machine and it will continue to be tonight.  This is an Evansville team with a lot of turmoil with head coach Walter McCarty stepping down mid-season.  And their best player in Deandre Williams (16.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG) has been out since January 4th with a back injury. 

Evansville has gone 0-10 SU & 1-9 ATS in Missouri Valley play this season.  Seven of those 10 losses have come by double-digits as they’ve rarely even been competitive.  They don’t stand much of a chance of even being competitive tonight either. 

Southern Illinois is playing as well as anyone in the MVC right now.  The Salukis are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in all five games.  They upset Drake and Illinois State on the road, as well as Drake, Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago at home.  They aren’t about to fall to Evansville tonight after winning all those games against the best teams in the MVC. 

Southern Illinois is 9-1 ATS when playing against a bad team (20% to 40%) over the last three seasons.  Evansville is 0-8 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Salukis are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  The Salukis are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Purple Aces are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Evansville is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 Wednesday games.  These six trends combine for a 44-1 system backing the Salukis tonight.  Take Southern Illinois Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Providence -2 

The Providence Friars want revenge from a tough 74-78 road loss at Creighton as 6-point underdogs on January 18th.  Now they get their shot at revenge just over two weeks later at home this time around in a game they basically just have to win to cover. 

Providence has lost three of its last four but was competitive in all three losses.  They only lost by 4 at Creighton, by 9 at Seton Hall and by 4 at home to Villanova.  But they pulled the upset at Butler last time out as 6.5-point dogs, so they are battle-tested. 

Creighton is in a huge letdown spot off its shocking 76-61 win at Villanova as 6.5-point dogs.  The Bluejays wanted revenge from blowing a double-digit lead at Villanova earlier this season.  Now I think they relax here off four straight wins and Providence simply wants this game more. 

Providence is 8-3 SU at home this season.  Creighton is 1-10 ATS in road games after covering four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet Providence Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia +9.5 

The Florida Gators have been consistently overvalued, especially here of late.  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were upset at home by Baylor by 11 and Mississippi State by 7 while also narrowly beating lowly Vanderbilt by 6 as 11.5-point road favorites last time out. 

Georgia has gone a solid 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Bulldogs just handled Texas A&M 63-48 at home as 6.5-point favorites and now hit the road to take on a Florida team that they have had no problem beating in Gainesville in recent years. 

Indeed, Georgia is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Florida.  That includes a 61-55 win as 11-point dogs and a 72-69 (OT) win as 10-point dogs in their last two trips to Gainesville.  And now they are catching 9.5 points again this year.  Asking Florida to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. 

Florida is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Gators are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with Georgia Wednesday. 

15* Villanova/Butler FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Butler -2 

Butler wants revenge from a 61-76 road loss at Villanova in their first meeting on January 21st.  They also want to bounce back from an upset home loss to Providence.  It’s safe to say the Bulldogs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight for both reasons and we’ll get their ‘A’ effort. 

Butler is 10-2 at home this season and winning by 15.0 points per game.  They face a Villanova team that is overvalued right now after winning seven of their last eight games overall.  But the Wildcats just lost at home 61-76 to Creighton as 6.5-point dogs, so they are far from invincible. 

Villanova is 2-8 ATS after having won three of its last four games this season.  Butler is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games off a conference loss as a favorite of 6 points or more.  The Wildcats are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a double-digit home loss.  Villanova is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Butler Wednesday. 

15* Mississippi State/Kentucky ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kentucky -6.5 

The Kentucky Wildcats return home highly motivated for a victory off a loss at Auburn over the weekend.  They have responded very well after their last two losses, beating Louisville 78-70 as 1.5-point favorites and winning at Arkansas 73-66 as 1.5-point dogs.  The Wildcats are 12-1 at home this season. 

Now the Wildcats host a Mississippi State team that is starting to get a lot of love from oddsmakers.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, and it’s time to ’sell high’ on them here as this will be their toughest test of the entire season tonight.  The Bulldogs have just two wins in true road games this year. 

Kentucky owns Mississippi State, going 13-0 SU in the last 13 meetings.  The Wildcats are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings while winning those five games by an average of 18.0 points per game.  The home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Kentucky Tuesday. 

20* Bucks/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans +7 

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing very well right now.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games with their only loss coming at Houston after they blew a 4th quarter lead and finished the game on a 0-for-11 run from 3-point range. 

It’s pretty clear you’re having to pay a tax to back the Milwaukee Bucks due to having the league’s best record at 42-7.  The Bucks have gone just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games overall and are now laying 7 points on the road to a Pelicans team that is much better than their record would indicate. 

The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  New Orleans is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games overall.  The Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  New Orleans is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage above 60%.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan -2 

After dropping four straight, the Michigan Wolverines have bounced back nicely with road wins and covers over Nebraska and Rutgers.  Look for them to continue their recent surge with an easy home win over the Ohio State Buckeyes tonight. 

This is an Ohio State team that has been grossly overvalued in Big Ten play and continues to be tonight.  The Buckeyes are just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall despite being favored in eight of those nine contests.   

Their only wins came at home against Nebraska and Indiana and on the road at Northwestern, the worst team in the Big Ten.  They lost by 14 at Penn State, by 12 at Indiana and by 12 at Maryland in their other three true road games during this stretch. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolverines are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Take Michigan Tuesday. 

20* Texas/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on Texas +14.5 

The Texas Longhorns want revenge from a 66-57 home loss to the Kansas Jayhawks on January 18th just two weeks ago.  They led The Jayhawks 31-26 at halftime before getting outscored by 14 points after intermission.  They will be highly motivated for revenge because of it. 

You’re really paying a tax to back the Jayhawks because they are ranked No. 3 in the country right now.  And that is especially the case when they play at home.  The Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, beating Texas Tech by 3 as 8.5-point favorites, Tennessee by 6 as 13-point favorites, WVU by 7 as 10-point favorites and losing outright to Baylor by 12 as 7.5-point favorites. 

Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Kansas not once losing by more than 12 points in those five games.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet Texas Monday. 

15* Baylor/K-State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State +7.5 

No question oddsmakers have had a tough time setting lines for Baylor because they keep covering.  The Bears have opened 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in Big 12 play as backers continue to get rewarded for betting the No. 1 ranked team in the country. 

But with all that point spread success and No. 1 ranking eventually comes expectations that they cannot live up to.  And I think the Bears are finally overvalued here as 7.5-point road favorites at Kansas State.  This is a game I could see them losing outright. 

While we’ll ‘sell high’ on Baylor, we’ll ‘buy low’ on a Kansas State team that is much better than its 9-12 record would indicate.  Eight of those 12 losses have come by single-digits, so the Wildcats have been hard up on their luck in close games.  KenPom has the Wildcats 343rd out of 353 teams in the luck factor this season. 

Kansas State has been through the gauntlet lately and is battle-tested because of it.  The Wildcats are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  Their only blowout loss came at Kansas.  They only lost by 3 at Alabama and by 9 at WVU.  They upset WVU by 16 as 7-point dogs and handled Oklahoma by 8 as 2-point favorites in their only two home games during this stretch.  The Wildcats are 8-3 at home this season. 

Kansas State owns Baylor, going 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Baylor is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  Take Kansas State Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5 

The Brooklyn Nets will make easy work of the Phoenix Suns tonight.  I’m not worried that they lost Kyrie Irving to injury because they aren’t any worse off without him.  They play more as a team without Irving on the court. 

This is definitely a play against the Phoenix Suns, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing in Milwaukee Sunday.  It’s a really banged up Suns team with six players either out or questionable for this game, including Rubio, Baynes and Saric. 

The Nets are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Suns.  Phoenix is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The Suns are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  Phoenix is 6-18 ATS after tailing by 15 points or more at halftime in its previous game over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Nets Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2.5 

The Miami Heat are 21-3 at home this season and should be more than 2.5-point favorites over the 76ers tonight.  Their only three home losses have come to the Celtics, Lakers and Clippers, which are three of the best teams in the NBA. 

I don’t consider the 76ers an elite team because they can’t win on the road.  Philadelphia is 9-17 SU & 9-16-1 ATS in all road games this season.  And you can just imagine the distractions the 76ers are dealing with after spending Super Bowl night in Miami. 

Philadelphia is 0-7 ATS in road games when revenging a road loss this season.  Miami is 10-1 ATS in home games off a road game this season.  The 76ers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.  Philadelphia is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog.  The Heat are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 home games.  Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  Take the Heat Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers -4.5 

The Indiana Pacers are coming off a bad home loss to the New York Knicks as 11-point favorites.  They come back highly motivated for a win here because of it.  And the Pacers are a rested team playing just their 3rd game in 8 days as well. 

The Dallas Mavericks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Making matters worse is the injuries piling up for the Mavericks.  They just recently lost Dwight Powell to a season-ending injury, and now both Luka Doncic and Seth Curry are both out Monday.  The Mavericks do not have the firepower to hang with the Pacers without this trio. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Pacers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Mavericks.  The Mavericks are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games off an ATS win.  Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five games off an ATS loss.  Bet the Pacers Monday. 

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +1.5 

Defense and running game usually wins out in the Super Bowl.  And I’ll gladly side with the better defense and running game against the flashy, high-powered offense of the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 54.

The 49ers are simply the more complete team.  The 49ers and Ravens were the only teams to rank in the Top 5 in total offense and total defense this season.  The 49ers were 4th in total offense at 381.1 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 281.8 yards per game in the regular season.  They outgained their opponents by 100 yards per game on the season, which is the sign of a dominant team.  And the 49ers are close to being 18-0 as their three losses all came on the final play of the game.

The 49ers were dominant in the first half of the season defensively before injuries took their toll.  But they got back DE Dee Ford, LB Kwon Alexander and S Jacquisky Tartt late in the season and have had all three for the playoffs.  And their defense has been absolutely dominant when they’ve had these three in the lineup. 

The 49ers beat the Vikings 27-10 and held them to just 147 total yards and 7 first downs in the Divisional Round.  Then they jumped out to a 27-0 lead on the Packers by halftime, so the stats that Green Bay racked up in garbage time in the 2nd half with the game already decided can be greatly discounted.  The 49ers have given up just 252.5 yards per game in the playoffs and that even includes those garbage time yards for the Packers. 

Kansas City has played two poor defenses in the playoffs in the Texans and Titans to help boost their offensive numbers.  They scored 51 on the Texans and 35 on the Titans.  But now this is a big step up in class here against the best defense they will have faced this season, and certainly the best pass rush that can negate what Mahomes can do. 

The Chiefs played four solid defenses in a row prior to the playoffs.  The Chargers held them to 346 total yards, while the Bears held them to 26 points and 350 total yards, the Broncos held them to 23 points and the Patriots held them to 23 points.  I think it’s asking a lot for the Chiefs to top 24 points in this one against this elite 49ers defense. 

While the Chiefs’ offense gets all the headlines, the 49ers have actually been the better offense during the regular season.  They rank 2nd in the league in scoring offense at 29.9 points per game, only behind the Ravens.  Kyle Shanahan is the best play-caller in the NFL, and he knows how to take advantage of the opposing team’s weaknesses defensively. 

That’s exactly what he did against the Vikings and Packers.  The 49ers rushed for 186 yards on the Vikings and 285 yards on the Packers.  They didn’t need Jimmy G to do much, though he has shown he can when called upon considering he threw for 354 yards on the Saints in a 48-46 win late in the season. 

The 49ers ranked 2nd in the NFL in rushing offense during the regular season at 144.1 yards per game, and the matchup with Kansas City’s run D is hugely in their favor.  The Chiefs rank 26th against the run, giving up 128.2 yards per game this season.  The Chiefs are even worse at 28th in allowing 4.9 yards per carry.  The Ravens rushed for 203 yards on the Chiefs, which is the best rushing offense they have faced outside San Francisco. 

So not only will the 49ers be able to run at will against the Chiefs, their defensive strength also matches up perfectly with Kansas City’s offensive strength.  The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 169.2 yards per game.  They are also 1st in yards per attempt allowed at 5.9 per attempt.  Their secondary is tremendous, but a big part of that is their pass rush up front with the best front 4 in the NFL in Bosa, Ford, Thomas & Armstead. 

The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the 49ers in Super Bowl 54.

Top 10 Favorite Prop Bets for Super Bowl 54

#10 - Jimmy G UNDER 4.5 Rushing Yards (+100) 

Jimmy G has 62 rushing yards on 46 attempts this season.  He’s only averaging 3.9 rushing yards per game.  And I believe there’s a good chance he’ll be kneeling on the ball to end the game. 

#9 - Will Raheem Mostert score a TD (Yes -130) 

Mostert has scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games overall.  Tevin Coleman dislocated his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game and is very questionable for the Super Bowl.  Coleman gets a lot of goal line touches, which will now go to Mostert. 

#8 - Dee Ford OVER 0.5 Sacks (-110) 

Ford has at least one sack in seven of his 10 games played this season.  He should be extra motivated to get after his former team and former QB in Mahomes. 

#7 - Jimmy G UNDER 29.5 Pass Attempts (-150) 

Jimmy G averages 27.9 pass attempts per game in his 18 games played this season.  He has averaged just 13.5 attempts in two playoff games.  Kyle Shanahan will continue trying to protect him as much as possible.  I expect the 49ers to continue their run-heavy game plan because the Chiefs are terrible against the run. 

#6 - 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw UNDER 5.5 Tackles (-110) 

Greenlaw was a beast when Kwon Alexander wasn’t on the field this season. He even had the game-saving tackle at the goal line against the Seahawks in Week 17 that earned the 49ers the No. 1 seed.  That play might be the biggest reason the 49ers made the Super Bowl.  But in Weeks 1-9 when Alexander was on the field with him, Greenlaw didn’t once record more than 4 tackles.  Alexander didn’t return until the playoffs, and Greenlaw has averaged 5 tackles per game in two playoff games 

#5 - Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush UNDER 14.5 Yards (-125) 

I’ve got some Mahomes rushing stats coming up that I’ll save for a future prop bet.  But basically Mahomes’ rushing props are inflated due to a big outburst with 53 rushing yards including a crazy 27-yard TD run against the Titans last game.  UNDER 14.5 yards for his longest carry here, but there’s another prop I like more that I’ll get to. (Check #2) 

#4 - Will Jimmy G Complete his First Pass (Yes, -220) 

We have to lay a little juice here but it’s worth it.  Kyle Shanahan always likes to get Jimmy G an easy completion to start the game.  He has made 26 starts under Shanahan.  He has 21 completions on his first 26 attempts in those 26 games.  That’s an 81% completion percentage.  Basically four out of every five games he completes his first pass, so that justifies laying the -220. 

#3 - Patrick Mahomes UNDER 305.5 Passing Yards (+100) 

Again, I believe Mahomes props in general to be inflated because he is the biggest star in this game.  And the numbers bear it out, too.  Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 300 yards in six of his last eight games.  He is averaging just 252.2 PYPG in his last eight games.  And the 49ers have the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL, giving up just 169.2 passing yards per game. 

#2 - Patrick Mahomes UNDER 32.5 Rushing Yards (+100) 

As stated before, Mahomes rushing props inflated due to his last game against TItans.  The Titans and Texans both play a lot of man-to-man defense, so Mahomes was able to use his legs more.  The 49ers play almost exclusively zone defense.  That means defenders have their eyes in the backfield and can come up and stop the run a lot easier than teams who are in man-to-man with their back turned to the QB.  SF did allow the 3rd-most QB rushing yards this season.  But they also faced Russell Wilson twice, Kyler Murray twice & Lamar Jackson.  Mahomes has 35 career games under his belt.  He has only topped 28 rushing yards 7 times in those 35 games.  That’s a 20% success rate if the over/under were only 28.5 yards.  But it’s 32.5, and I believe there’s a ton of value with the UNDER. 

#1 - 49ers 1st Quarter +0.5 (-155) 

This prop means that if the 49ers are tied or winning at the end of the first quarter, you win your bet.  There’s obviously a very good chance it’s tied, so laying only -155 I think is worth the price.  The 49ers were 4th in the NFL with a +2.6 PPG differential in the 1st quarter this season, so they are fast starters.  The Chiefs have actually been outscored in the 1st quarter on the season, so they are not fast starters.  And we’ve seen that in the playoffs.  They trailed the Texans 24-0 and the Titans 17-7 before rallying in both games. 

15* Pelicans/Rockets ABC ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +5.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthy and gotten Zion Williamson into the lineup.  The results have been impressive since.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Celtics by 15, the Cavs by 14 and the Grizzlies by 28. 

The Houston Rockets just aren’t playing well at all right now.  They are 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  And they are without their stud center in Clint Capela, who is more important to them than he gets credit for. 

Houston is 2-10 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games this season.  The Pelicans are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.  New Orleans is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Pelicans are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Houston.  Take the Pelicans Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on La Salle +9.5

This is a great spot to fade the Duquesne Dukes.  They just lost a heartbreaker to a Top 10 opponent in Dayton by a final of 69-73 as 8-point home underdogs.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat in time to face La Salle this afternoon.

It has been a string of poor performances for the Dukes outside that effort against Dayton.  Duquesne is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The two wins came against lowly George Washington (by 5) as an 8-point road favorites and Fordham (by 2) as an 18-point home favorite.  They also lost by 9 at UMass as 5.5-point favorites and were crushed by 22 at Rhode Island. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on La Salle, which has lost six straight coming in.  But they were competitive in almost every loss and only lost by 3 at Rhode Island as 10-point dogs and by 1 to St. Louis as 3.5-point home dogs.  Those are two of the best teams in the Atlantic 10, so they have proven the can play with teams like Duquesne. 

Each of the last three meetings in this series were decided by 7 points or less.  The Explorers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  The road team is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  La Salle is 6-0 ATS after playing three straight games as an underdog this season.  Duquesne is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 home games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Roll with La Salle Sunday. 

20* 76ers/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -2.5 

The Boston Celtics have rallied since losing three straight and have been playing determined basketball since.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes a 32-point win over the Lakers, a 24-point win over the Grizzlies and an 8-point win at Miami.  The five wins have come by an average of 18.0 points per game. 

It’s well documented that the Philadelphia 76ers struggle on the road, yet they continue getting too much respect from oddsmakers on the highway.  The 76ers are just 9-16 SU & 9-15-1 ATS in their 25 road games this season.  The Celtics have gone 19-5 SU at home. 

The Celtics will be highly motivated for revenge after losing all three meetings with the 76ers this season.  They want to avoid the sweep in the worst way, and I think they will be as motivated for this game as they have been for any game this season, so I know I’m going to get their best effort here. 

The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The 76ers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Philadelphia is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Boston is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Boston.  Roll with the Celtics Saturday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Loyola-Chicago -5 

I love the spot for Loyola-Chicago Saturday.  They are coming off two straight road losses at Northern Iowa (OT) and at Southern Illinois, which have been two of the best home teams in the Missouri Valley. 

Now the Ramblers return home highly motivated for a win Saturday.  Loyola-Chicago is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with its last three wins all coming by 16 points or more over Indiana State by 20, Southern Illinois by 16 and Evansville by 34. 

The Ramblers also want revenge from a 51-53 loss to Bradley in the MVC Tournament last year.  Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Bradley with all five wins coming by 8 points or more.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington State +9 

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have been a very tough out at home this season and should not be catching 9 points against Arizona given the spot. 

Arizona comes in on one days’ rest after an overtime win at Washington on Thursday.  Washington has had two days’ rest since its home win over Arizona State on Wednesday.  That is a big advantage for the Cougars in this one. 

Washington State is 10-2 SU at home this season.  The Cougars are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four Pac-12 home games despite being an underdog in all four.  They upset UCLA 79-71 as 2-point dogs, upset Oregon 72-61 as 9-point dogs, upset Oregon State 89-76 as 3.5-point dogs and upset Arizona State 67-65 as 2-point dogs. 

Oddsmakers continue to give the Cougars no respect at home tonight, and we’ll gladly take advantage.  The Wildcats are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.  They don’t deserve this kind of respect.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Take Washington State Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +8.5 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Nebraska off six straight losses.  But the Huskers are rapidly improving under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg despite the losses.  They have been a lot more competitive since they’ve jumped into Big Ten play. 

Indeed, the Huskers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  That includes upset home wins over Iowa by 6 as 8-point dogs and Purdue by 14 as 13-point dogs.  They also took Indiana to OT on the road, and covered in road losses to NW, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Rutgers.  They just aren’t getting blown out. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Penn State after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with huge wins over Ohio State and Indiana at home as well as struggling Michigan on the road.  This is a clear letdown and lookahead spot now with Michigan State on deck Tuesday. 

Nebraska comes in on three days’ rest while Penn State comes in on just two days’ rest.  The Nittany Lions are 1-3-2 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  The Huskers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Nebraska is 4-0 ATS in its last four games off an ATS loss.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford +2 

Oregon’s luck will run out today at Stanford.  The Ducks have won four straight with two of those in OT and also a 5-point win at lowly Cal.  Now they face a pissed off Stanford team that will beat them outright. 

The Cardinal are highly motivated for a victory after dropping three straight coming in.  They are back home here where they are 11-2 SU & 9-4 ATS on the season.  One of those losses was to Kansas while the other was an upset loss to Oregon State last time out.  I just can’t see them dropping two straight at home here. 

The home team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The only exception was a 2-point win by Oregon as 7-point favorites.  Stanford has pulled the upset in two of their last three home meetings with Oregon.  And this is the best team the Cardinal have had in a long time. 

The Cardinal are 28-10 ATS in their last 38 home games.  Stanford is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.  The Cardinal are 49-24 ATS in their last 73 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Stanford Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -2.5 

The Texas Longhorns are 8-3 at home this season while the Iowa State Cyclones are just 1-7 in all road games.  It’s a pretty easy choice here with the Longhorns laying just 2.5 points at home Saturday. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  Texas is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Iowa State. 

The Cyclones are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.  Iowa State is coming off two straight deflating losses against Top 25 teams in Auburn and Baylor and won’t be able to get up for the Longhorns.  Bet Texas Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +11 

Ole Miss is starting to play up to its potential finally.  In their last two games they went on the road and upset Georgia 70-60 as 7-point underdogs and took Auburn to overtime in an 82-83 loss as 5.5-point dogs.  They can certainly hang with LSU Saturday. 

The Tigers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 9-0 SU in their last nine games overall.  They have simply been fortunate in close games, too.  Six of their last seven wins have remarkably come by 4 points or fewer. 

The Tigers have a rest disadvantage.  They come in on two days’ rest after playing Alabama on Wednesday while Ole Miss comes in on three days’ rest after facing Auburn on Tuesday.  That extra day of prep will be huge for the Rebels. 

Ole Miss also wants revenge from a 76-80 home loss to LSU on January 18th about exactly two weeks ago.  The Rebels are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as road underdogs.  The Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  Roll with Ole Miss Saturday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton +7 

Creighton wants revenge from a 59-64 home loss to Villanova on January 7th.  The Bluejays blew a double-digit lead in that game.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull the upset today and get their revenge. 

The Bluejays have proven they can compete on the road this season.  They are 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road games.  They pulled road upsets over Arizona State, Xavier and DePaul and only lost by 3 at Georgetown during this stretch. 

Creighton has the rest and preparation edge as they come in on five days’ rest after playing on Sunday while Villanova is only on three days’ rest after playing on Tuesday.  That advantage plus the revenge factor makes Creighton worth a bet as 7-point dogs here. 

The Bluejays are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  Creighton is 6-2 ATS in its last eight Saturday games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  After being a 2-point favorite in the first meeting, the Bluejays are now 7-point dogs in the rematch, a 9-point adjustment that is too much.  Bet Creighton Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +6.5 

Georgia Tech wants revenge from a 74-78 home loss as 1.5-point home favorites over Notre Dame on January 15th about two weeks ago.  The Yellow Jackets blew a late lead in that game and haven’t forgotten. 

I like the rest advantage here for the Yellow Jackets.  They got a freebie against Morehouse on Tuesday in an 82-54 win.  So that was like a practice game for them.  Notre Dame just played on Wednesday and only has two days’ rest to get ready for Georgia Tech. 

This is a big number for Notre Dame to be laying.  They have just one win in ACC play by more than 4 points, which was against Wake Forest at home.  Six of their last seven games have been decided by 5 points or less as well. 

The Yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Georgia Tech is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games overall.  The Fighting Irish are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win.  Notre Dame is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -5 

The Detroit Pistons are rested and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are coming off a 125-115 home win over the Pistons and should make easy work of the Chicago Bulls tonight. 

The Bulls will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  They are coming off an overtime loss at Indiana.  And while the Nets are fully healthy, the Bulls have 11 guys on their injury report and will be without three of their best players in Markkanen, Carter Jr. and Porter Jr. 

The Nets own the Bulls, going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Bulls are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games playing on one days' rest.  Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last five Friday games.  Brooklyn is 6-0 ATS in its last six Friday games.  Bet the Nets Friday. 

15* Jazz/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -1

The Utah Jazz are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They lost to the Spurs 120-127 last night as 5-point favorites, and also lost to the Rockets 117-126 as 14.5-point home favorites on Monday. 

The Nuggets are 18-6 at home this season and have been the best home team in the NBA over the past two seasons.  This is a very short number to be laying with them tonight.  And I like that they’ll be motivated off their loss at Memphis on Tuesday. 

The Nuggets are 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  The home team is 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The favorite is 16-3 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  The Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Denver.  Roll with the Nuggets Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Hawks +7 

The Philadelphia 76ers have been dynamite at home, but they are just 9-15 SU & 9-14-1 ATS on the road this season.  They are laying too many points here against a feisty Atlanta Hawks team that brings is every night. 

They Hawks are 3-0 ATS in their last three home games.  They beat the Wizards 152-133 as 1-point favorites, upset the Clippers 102-95 as 5-point dogs and nearly upset the Raptors in a 117-122 loss as 8.5-point dogs.  So they can hang with a team like the 76ers, who will be without two starters in Al Horford and Josh Richardson tonight. 

The Hawks are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the 76ers despite being at least a 4.5-point underdog in all four.  Their only loss came earlier this season by a final of 103-105 as 6.5-point dogs. 

The 76ers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the 76ers.  Take the Hawks Thursday. 

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida International -2 

Florida International is a perfect 9-0 at home this season and winning by 16.5 points per game.  I’ll gladly back them as only 2-point home favorites over Marshall tonight in this Conference USA showdown. 

Marshall is just 2-6 SU in true road games this season with its only wins coming against poor Middle Tennessee and Morehead State teams.  They lost by 11 at UAB and by 7 at Western Kentucky in their two most recent road games. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Thundering Herd are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Golden Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Florida International Thursday. 

20* Rockets/Blazers ESPN No-Brainer on Portland +2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers just got CJ McCollum back in the lineup from an ankle injury last time out.  They also picked up Trevor Ariza.  The Blazers promptly pulled off an impressive 139-129 home win over the Indiana Pacers on Sunday. 

Now the Blazers come in on two days’ rest and should be fresh and ready to go.  They host a Houston Rockets team that has both James Harden and Clint Capela listed as questionable with injuries.  I like the Blazers whether or not these two play, but it would be an added bonus if they didn’t. 

The Blazers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Rockets.  Portland beat Houston 117-107 on the road as 8.5-point dogs in their last meeting on January 15th.  Both meetings thus far this season have been in Houston.  But the Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Portland. 

Houston is 22-45-1 ATS in its last 68 games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  The Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Rockets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, a much tougher situation than the one the Blazers are in.  Take the Blazers Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Tech -2 

This feels like a great spot to back the Texas Tech Red Raiders at home.  They are coming off two straight losses to TCU and Kentucky.  The OT loss to Kentucky snapped a 54-game home winning streak in non-conference play. 

Now the Red Raiders welcome 12th-ranked West Virginia.  Texas Tech is 9-2 at home this season, while the Mountaineers are 3-3 in true road games.  That includes a 16-point loss at Kansas State in their last road games, and we’ve seen K-State struggle to win any games lately. 

Texas Tech will also be out for revenge from a 12-point loss at West Virginia in their first meeting on January 11th just over two weeks ago.  WVU had a 35-to-7 edge in free throw attempts, which was the difference in that game.  That FT discrepancy won’t be nearly as lopsided in the rematch in Lubbock this time around.  And Tech has the size inside to match up with the Mountaineers better than most teams. 

The Red Raiders are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win by more than 20 points.  Roll with Texas Tech Wednesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -1 

The Kansas State Wildcats have been one of the most unlucky teams in all of college basketball.  They rank 344th out of 353 teams in KenPom’s luck factor, which basically tells you how lucky a team has been to have the record that they have. 

I have no doubt that Kansas State is much better than its 8-11 record would indicate.  Seven of those 11 losses have come by single-digits, including their tough 74-77 loss at Alabama as 9-point dogs over the weekend. 

One of those close losses was a 61-66 setback at Oklahoma as 7-point dogs on January 4th in their first meeting this season.  That places the Wildcats in revenge mode tonight. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings, and the Wildcats just have to win to cover. 

Oklahoma is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  The home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Oklahoma has just two true road wins all season over North Texas (by 2) and Texas.  Bet Kansas State Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State -3.5 

Both Drake and Indiana State are unbeaten at home this season.  Drake is 11-0 at home with one of its closest games coming against Indiana State in a 4-point win over the Sycamores on January 4th.  That places the Sycamores in revenge mode at home this time around. 

Indiana State is 8-0 at home this season.  They have been tremendous on defense at home, giving up just 56.8 points per game and outscoring their opponents by 12.4 points per game.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home in MVC play and winning by 14.0 points per game with all four wins coming by 8 points or more. 

Drake is just 2-5 SU in true road games.  The two wins were against two very bad teams in Evansville and Air Force.  Drake’s five road losses have come by an average of 16.6 points per game. 

Indiana State is 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or less this season.  Drake is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Sycamores are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama +5.5 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the LSU Tigers off eight straight wins.  Remarkably, each of LSU’s last six wins have all come by 4 points or less.  They are simply getting lucky in close games and have a better record than they deserve to have at this point. 

Alabama just can’t seem to get any respect from oddsmakers.  The Crimson Tide are 10-3 SU & 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their only losses during this stretch came by 7 at Kentucky, by 6 at Florida in OT and by 2 at Penn State.  They haven’t been blown out since November. 

Alabama is 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with LSU.  The Crimson Tide have only lost one of those eight games by more than 5 points.  SO I think there’s a lot of value on the Crimson Tide catching 5.5 points in a game they can win outright. 

LSU is just 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or less this season.  The Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Alabama is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  LSU is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Alabama Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -2.5 

The Air Force Falcons are the better team here and should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over Fresno State.  The Falcons were 9-9 but dropped three straight coming in.  Look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder tonight to get back in the win column. 

Fresno State is just 6-14 on the season, including 2-9 in all road games.  They have lost seven of their last nine games overall with their only two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the Mountain West in San Jose State and Wyoming.  Each of their last five losses have come by 9 points or more. 

That includes Fresno State’s 53-87 home loss to Boise State over the weekend.  Nate Grimes started serving his suspension in that game for conduct detrimental to the team.  He had 23 points against Colorado State the game prior, and he averages 12.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game.  He is their best player and his loss to suspension is huge. 

Air Force is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Fresno State.  The Falcons are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS loss.  The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Air Force Tuesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +7.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are in a tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They are coming off two tough road games at Utah and Oklahoma City and won’t have much left in the tank tonight. 

The Phoenix Suns are playing some solid basketball here of late in going 5-4 SU in their last nine games overall.  They have gotten healthier and just upset the Spurs on the road before losing by 5 at Memphis in their last two games coming in.  And now they’ll take this tired Mavericks team to the wire tonight. 

The Suns are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Mavericks.  Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Dallas.  The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  The Mavericks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Dallas is 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Suns Tuesday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Golden State Warriors +12 

The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a huge upset home win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This is a great time to fade them in an obvious letdown spot against the team with the worst record in the Western Conference in the Golden State Warriors tonight. 

Philadelphia is also likely to be without Joel Embiid again tonight, and they are also without starter Josh Richardson, who is their best shooter and averages 15.0 points per game.  I just don’t think they have the horses or the motivation to put the Warriors away by this kind of margin tonight. 

Golden State comes in rested and ready to go.  The Warriors are working on three days’ rest having last played on Friday.  And they are as healthy as they have been all season now.  Look for a big effort from them tonight because of it. 

The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take the Warriors Tuesday. 

15* Florida/Virginia ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Virginia +2 

I love the spot for the Virginia Cavaliers tonight.  It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on a Cavaliers team that has been a money burner for backs this season, going 13-6 SU but 5-14 ATS on the year.  Now they find themselves as home underdogs for the first time all season. 

Virginia wants revenge from a 50-54 road loss at Florida State on January 15th less than two weeks ago.  I have no doubt they’ll be the more motivated team as a result, and I look for them to have their revenge on the Seminoles. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Florida State, which is 17-2 and has won 10 straight coming in.  But the Seminoles were fortunate to escape with an 83-79 (OT) win at Miami as 6-point favorites and an 85-84 home win over Notre Dame as 9-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Their luck runs out tonight. 

The Seminoles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Florida State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  Virginia is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games as an underdog.  The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home underdogs.  Bet Virginia Tuesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M +11 

The Texas A&M Aggies have some impressive road results here of late that has me attracted to them as double-digit road underdogs at Tennessee.  This is too many points tonight folks. 

Texas A&M Is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three road games.  The Aggies only lost by 10 at Arkansas as 14.5-point dogs.  They upset Vanderbilt 69-50 as 3.5-point road dogs.  And they pulled the 66-64 upset at Missouri as 10-point dogs. 

Tennessee is in a bad spot tonight.  The Vols just played 3rd-ranked Kansas on the road over the weekend and took them to the wire in a 68-74 defeat as 13-point dogs.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face Texas A&M at home tonight. 

The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  Texas A&M is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Vols are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Texas A&M Tuesday. 

15* Kansas/Oklahoma State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma State +7 

Bill Self admitted that his team was tired from the aftermath of the suspension following the fight with Kansas State.  The Jayhawks only beat Tennessee 74-68 as 13-point home favorites on Saturday. 

Now, the Jayhawks have to still be tired playing their 2nd game in 3 days here.  They miss the depth provided by starter David McCormack and reserve Silvio De Sousa.  The Jayhawks now have to use a five-guard lineup when Udoka Azubuike goes out, which makes them susceptible underneath on both ends. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys are 0-6 in Big 12 play, but they have been much more competitive in their last three games.  They led most the way against top-ranked Baylor before falling 68-75 at home.  They hung tough with Iowa State in an 82-89 road loss.  And their 73-62 win at Texas A&M over the weekend provides them with the confidence they need to try and take down Kansas tonight. 

Oklahoma State has played Kansas very tough at home recently.  The Cowboys are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with Kansas.  Their two losses both came by exactly 5 points, so they haven’t lost any of the five by this 7-point spread.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Oklahoma State Monday. 

20* Mavs/Thunder NBA No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +1.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are playing too well to be home underdogs to the Dallas Mavericks.  The Thunder are 13-4 SU & 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  I’ll gladly side with them as home dogs to the Mavericks tonight. 

The Mavericks have lost two of their last three to the Clippers and Jazz.  They just lost key role player Dwight Powell to a season-ending Achilles injury, and he’s more important to the team than he gets credit for because he’s been so good in the pick and roll.  He shoots 63.5% from the field and gets easy buckets consistently off Doncic pick-and-rolls. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series.  The home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Thunder won outright as 2.5-point dogs in their first and only meeting this season at home against the Mavs by a final of 106-101 on December 31st. 

The Mavericks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Oklahoma City is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games as an underdog.  Bet the Thunder Monday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -1.5 

The New York Knicks have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They took the likes of the 76ers, Lakers and Raptors all to the wire during this stretch to prove what they are capable of. 

Look for the Knicks to get a victory tonight over a tired Brooklyn Nets team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Making matters worse for the Nets is that they had to go to overtime with the Pistons yesterday. 

The Nets are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games playing on zero rest.  Brooklyn is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. New York is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 home meetings.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -5 

The Drake Bulldogs are a real contender to win the Missouri Valley this season.  They are 14-6 this year and have been one of the best covering teams in all of college basketball over the last few seasons. 

A big reason for Drake’s success is that they defend their home court.  Indeed, the Bulldogs are 10-0 at home this season and winning by 15.3 points per game.  They are 3-0 at home in MVC play with wins over Loyola-Chicago, Indiana State and Illinois State. 

Missouri State is just 2-5 in true road games with its only wins at Evansville and Illinois State, two of the worst teams in the MVC.  Drake is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Missouri State.  The Bulldogs won both meetings by double-digits last year. 

Drake is 36-13-2 ATS in its last 51 home games.  The Bulldogs are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  Drake is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The home team is 18-8 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with Drake Sunday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2 

The Indiana Hoosiers want revenge from a 59-75 loss at Maryland on January 4th in their first meeting.  Considering how well the Hoosiers have played at home this season, they should have their revenge this afternoon. 

Indeed, Indiana is 12-1 at home this season and winning by 15.0 points per game.  They just upset Michigan State as 4-point home underdogs and also crushed Ohio State by 12 and Florida State by 16 at home. 

Maryland is just 1-4 SU in true road games with its only win coming at Northwestern, which is the worst team in the Big Ten.  The Terrapins lost at Wisconsin (by 2), Iowa (by 18), Seton Hall (by 4) and Penn State (by 7). 

The home team is 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings, so home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  And the Hoosiers basically just have to win to cover at home today.  The Terrapins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games.  Take Indiana Sunday. 

15* Washington/Colorado FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Washington +8 

The Washington Huskies are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are much better than their 12-8 record would indicate, but they have just been unfortunate in close games this year.  And I expect this game against Colorado to come down to the wire, so getting 8 points is a great value. 

Indeed, Washington is 12-8 with seven of their losses coming by 7 points or fewer.  So they have only been beaten by more than this spread one time in 20 games this season.  KenPom has a luck factor for teams that shows how lucky are unlucky they are to have the record they have.  Well, Washington is 347th out of 353 teams in the luck category.  This is more like a 15-5 team rather than a 12-8 team. 

Colorado is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 15-4 record and No. 23 national ranking.  But this is a Colorado team that is fortunate to have that record as they are 66th in the luck department.  And they have been upset by both Oregon State and Northern Iowa at home this year, so they are far from invincible at home. 

Colorado’s best player in Tyler Bey is questionable with a hand injury after sitting out last game against Washington State.  Bey averages 13.1 PPG and leads the team in rebounding at 9.3 RPG while also leading the team in 3-point percentage (47.1%).  Chances are he plays but he’s far from 100% with a hand injury. 

Washington owns Colorado, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  That includes two upset wins as road underdogs winning 77-70 as 2.5-point dogs and 72-62 as 5-point dogs in its last two trips to Boulder.  Expect more of the same as the Buffaloes struggle with the size and defensive prowess of the Huskies, who give up just 62.7 PPG and 36.9% shooting this season.  Roll with Washington Saturday. 

15* Lakers/76ers ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers have been the best road team in the NBA this season.  They are 20-4 SU in road games, so I’m not worried at all about laying this short number with them on the road against the Philadelphia 76ers. 

I know the 76ers are great at home, but they just have some injuries right now that aren’t going to allow them to compete with the Lakers.  They are without their best player in Joel Embiid (23.4 PPG, 12.3 RPG) and also are now without their best shooter in Josh Richardson (15.0 PPG), who just suffered a hamstring injury last time out. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in in their last three games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games are 42-14 (75%) ATS since 1996. 

The 76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The 76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days’ rest.  Los Angeles is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 trips to Philadelphia.  Take the Lakers Saturday. 

20* Baylor/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida -2 

This is one of those rare situations where the unranked team in Florida is favored over the ranked team in Baylor.  And it’s not just any ranked team, it’s the No. 1 Baylor Bears.  And I fully agree with Florida being the favorite here. 

You can bet it’s going to be a rowdy atmosphere for the Gators at home Saturday night with the No. 1 team coming to town.  And the Gators have defended their home court to near-perfection.  They are 7-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Florida State, which is the No. 5 ranked team in the country.  They just beat 16th-ranked Auburn by 22 in their last home game. 

I don’t believe Baylor is the best team in the country.  That ranking clearly went to their head when they were nearly upset by Oklahoma on Monday in a 61-57 win as 11-point home favorites.  They also barely won their previous game against lowly Oklahoma State as they trailed the entire way until the final minutes.  That’s an Oklahoma State team that is 0-6 in Big 12 play. 

Baylor usually has a big rebounding edge against most opponents, but that won’t be the case against Florida.  The Bears average 6 more boards per game than their opponents while the Gators average 5 more boards per game than their foes.  And it’s worth noting Florida (22nd) has played the tougher schedule than Baylor (47th).  The Gators are battle-tested and ready to take down the top-ranked team in the country.  Take Florida Saturday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane -1.5 

The Tulane Green Wave are one of the most improved teams in the country.  Head coach Ron Hunter did big things at IUPUI and Georgia State in turning around those two programs.  And he’s doing the same in his first season at Tulane thanks to transfers. 

This is a Tulane team that has made me a lot of money this season.  They covered 4 straight recently to open AAC play.  They covered in narrow road losses to Memphis and UConn, while also upsetting Cincinnati as an 8-point home dog and Temple by 16 as a 9-point road dog. 

I think that stretch took its toll on Tulane because the Green Wave have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games.  They lost at home to UCF and Tulsa.  But now they’ve had a full week to recover as they last play on Saturday, coming in on six days’ rest.  Expect one of their best efforts of the season to try and bounce back from those two losses. 

East Carolina is at a huge scheduling disadvantage.  The Pirates only come in on two days’ rest after losing 64-84 at SMU on Wednesday.  That followed up a 25-point loss at Cincinnati and a 16-point home loss to Tulsa.  Tulane is power rated about 8 points better than ECU according to KenPom, and when you factor in the favorable scheduling spot the Green Wave should be more than 1.5-point favorites here. 

ECU is 2-14 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 1-9 ATS after playing five consecutive games as an underdog over the last two seasons.  ECU is 2-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 0-7 ATS vs. excellent ball-handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last three years.   

The Green Wave are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Tulane is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take Tulane Saturday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -3.5 

The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA.  They have gone 18-2 SU in their last 20 games overall and 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  We are getting the Jazz real cheap as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  Especially since they’re rested on two days’ rest having last played on Wednesday. 

The Mavericks are getting some respect from the books because they are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But they lost to the best team they faced in the Clippers and the other five wins came against the Blazers (twice), Kings, Warriors and 76ers (at home). 

The Mavericks just lost a key player in Dwight Powell to a season-ending Achilles injury, while the Jazz are fully healthy right now.  The Jazz are 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings with the Mavericks.  The Jazz are 6-0 SU in their last six home meetings with Dallas winning by an average of 12.0 points per game. 

The Mavericks are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  The Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.  Utah is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Bet the Jazz Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon State -2.5 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Oregon State Beavers, who have lost three in a row both SU & ATS coming in.  That has them highly motivated for a win tonight as they host the USC Trojans. 

USC is coming off a gut-wrenching loss to Oregon in overtime.  I think that’s the kind of loss that beats them twice here.  Especially since the Trojans only have one day to recover from that contest on Thursday plus have the travel.  Oregon State gets to stay at home after facing UCLA Thursday and will be the much fresher, more prepared team. 

The Beavers are 8-2 at home this season.  They won both meetings with USC last year and should be able to handle this USC team that lost by 32 at Washington and by 9 at Oregon in two of its recent road games. 

Oregon State is 13-4 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Beavers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games off an ATS loss.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Oregon State Saturday. 

25* MVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State -2.5 

The Indiana State Sycamores are highly motivated for a win off two straight road losses to Valparaiso and Loyola-Chicago.  And now they will certainly get up for defending MVC champ Bradley today.  I believe the Sycamores are favored for good reason. 

Indiana State is 7-0 at home this season.  That includes a 3-0 home record in conference play with all three wins coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 16.0 points per game.  The Sycamores are one of the most underrated teams in the MVC this season as they’re a veteran squad that returned four starters. 

Bradley comes in overvalued after winning four of their last five and going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.  But they could be without their top two scorers Saturday.  Elijah Childs (14.2 PPG) is for sure out, while Darrell Brown (14.2 PPG) is questionable with a quad injury after sitting out last game. 

Bradley is just 2-4 SU in true road games this season.  They lost to a very bad St. Joe’s team as 5-point road favorites, lost by 15 at Memphis, lost by 16 at Miami Ohio as 2-point favorites and also lost at Northern Iowa.  Their only two road wins came against poor Missouri State and Evansville teams. 

Indiana State has won five of its last seven meetings with Bradley.  The Sycamores are 17-5 SU in their last 22 home meetings with Bradley.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Indiana State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  The Sycamores are 6-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet Indiana State Saturday. 

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +13 

I love fading the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in this spot.  They just got ranked this week for the first time since the 1978-79 season.  And they are now getting a lot of love from oddsmakers due to that Top 25 ranking. 

I know Rutgers is 13-0 at home this season, but that is being factored into the line way too much.  Also this is an overreaction from Rutgers beating Nebraska 79-62 on the road on January 3rd in their first meeting this season. 

I’ll gladly side with the revenge-minded Huskers, who are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg.  The Huskers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes upset wins over Purdue by 14 as 13-point dogs and Iowa by 6 as 8-point dogs.  They just aren’t getting blown out as they have only been beaten by more than 14 points once in their last 10 games overall. 

Nebraska is 10-2 ATS in January road games over the last three seasons.  The Huskers are 13-4 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  Rutgers is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 home games after playing a game where both teams scored 80 points or more.  The Scarlet Knights have just two days to prepare while the Huskers have three days to get ready after playing on Tuesday.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -3.5 

The Michigan Wolverines are showing great value as a short home favorite Saturday over Illinois.  We are getting the Wolverines at a discount because they have lost three straight coming in both SU and ATS.  That has them highly motivated for a win here Saturday. 

Adding to the motivation is the fact that Michigan wants revenge from a 62-71 loss at Illinois in their first meeting this season.  Well, home-court advantage has been huge for the Wolverines in this series as they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the Fighting Illini.  The home team is 27-11-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings.  And Michigan has faced the 4th-toughest schedule in the entire country this year so they are battle-tested. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Fighting Illini, who have won five straight coming in.  But three of those wins were by 4 points or fewer, including narrow home wins over Rutgers (by 3) and Northwestern (by 4).  And Illinois just lost its first player off the bench in Alan Griffin (8.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG) to a two-game suspension.  Griffin also leads the team in 3-point percentage (39.4%) and FT percentage (89.5%). 

Michigan is 8-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Wolverines are 15-4 ATS off a loss over the last three years.  Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The Fighting Illini are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS win.  Roll with Michigan Saturday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4 

The New Orleans Pelicans lost their first game with Zion Williamson in the lineup Wednesday on National TV.  They ran into a hot Spurs team and fell 117-121.  I expect the Pelicans to get back on track tonight with a win and cover against the Denver Nuggets. 

The Pelicans are 10-5 SU & 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are fully healthy for the first time all season.  They are going to be a dangerous team moving forward as they have one of the most talented rosters in the NBA. 

The Denver Nuggets are far from healthy.  They are without Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee while both Gary Harris and Michael Porter Jr. are questionable.  They have lost two of their last three by 8 at home to Indiana and by 15 at Houston.  They needed overtime to beat lowly Golden State and also won by just 7 at lowly Minnesota. 

The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last five Friday games.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Nuggets.  New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Denver.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off a loss.  These four trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Friday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -8 

The Toronto Raptors have had five key players miss 10 or more games this year in Siakam, Lowry, VanVleet, Gasol and Powell.  It’s amazing they’ve been able to go 30-14 to this point with all these injuries. 

But the Raptors returned everyone basically five games ago.  And it’s no coincidence they’ve gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in those five games, winning by an average of 13.0 points per game.  Expect another blowout win over the lowly New York Knicks tonight. 

The Raptors own the Knicks, going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings while winning those seven games by an average of a whopping 23.0 points per game.  Dating back further, the Raptors are 15-1 SU in their last 16 meetings with the Knicks with 12 of those wins coming by double-digits. 

The Raptors are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games playing on one days’ rest.  The Knicks are 7-20 ATS in in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with the Raptors Friday. 

20* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -4 

The Purdue Boilermakers are highly motivated for a win tonight.  They are coming off a rare home loss to Illinois and have dropped four of their last five overall with the other three losses coming on the road.  Look for them to get back in the win column with a blowout victory over Wisconsin Friday. 

Purdue is now 15-1 SU in its last 16 Big Ten home games to show you how rare that loss to Illinois really was.  The Boilermakers are 8-2 at home this season with impressive wins over Michigan State by 29 and Virginia by 29. 

Wisconsin has gone 3-3 in true road games with blowout losses to NC State by 15 and Michigan State by 12, as well as a loss at Rutgers by 7.  Purdue has gone 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Wisconsin. 

The Badgers are 0-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover three of their last four ATS over the last two seasons.  The Boilermakers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games off a loss.  Purdue is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Purdue Friday. 

20* UCLA/Oregon State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State -7.5 

The Oregon State Beavers will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night.  They are coming off back-to-back road losses to Washington and Washington State. 

Now the Beavers return home where they are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 14.0 points per game.  They crushed Arizona 82-65 in their last home games and have one of the better home-court advantages in the Pac-12. 

UCLA is a dumpster fire right now.  It is 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall with its only wins coming against Cal and Washington.  Five of those six losses came by 8 points or more, so the Bruins have been blown out on the regular. 

Oregon State is 8-1 ATS off two straight games where they had 5 or fewer steals over the last two seasons.  The Beavers are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the Bruins.  UCLA is 16-35 ATS in its last 51 road games.  The Bruins are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Beavers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS loss.  The Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games off a SU loss.  Roll with Oregon State Thursday. 

20* Mavs/Blazers TNT No-Brainer on Portland +4.5 

I like the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They want revenge from a 112-120 road loss to Dallas just six days ago on January 17th.  Now they get their chance at revenge at home this time around. 

The Blazers come in on two days’ rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  Both Hassan Whiteside and Trevor Ariza will be available for them tonight, and CJ McCollum could return from an ankle injury as he has been upgraded to questionable. 

The Mavericks lost a key piece in Dwight Powell in their last game against the Clippers.  It’s a season-ending Achilles injury.  Powell is one of the most underrated players in the NBA and does a lot for this team that goes unnoticed.  He’s great in the pick-and-roll and shoots 63.8% from the field. 

Plays on underdogs (Portland) - a cold team failing to cover 12 or more of their last 15 against an opponent that covered three of their last four are 72-27 (72.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Blazers Thursday. 

15* Michigan State/Indiana FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +4 

Home-court advantage has been huge in the Big Ten this season.  That has especially been the case for the Indiana Hoosiers, who are 11-1 at home and winning by 15.9 points per game this season.  They have impressive wins over Florida State by 16 and Ohio State by 12 at home this year. 

Michigan State has clearly been vulnerable on the road.  The Spartans are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS in true road games this season.  They only won by 3 at Seton Hall as 5.5-point favorites.  They only won by 5 at Northwestern as 12-point favorites.  And they were blasted by 29 at Purdue as similar 4.5-point favorites. 

Indiana upset Michigan State in both meetings last season.  They won 79-75 as 14-point road dogs and 63-62 as 6-point home dogs.  And the Hoosiers are night and day better than they were a year ago as this is easily the best team that Archie Miller has had in his tenure.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. 

Indiana is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus more boards than their opponents after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Michigan State is 0-6 ATS in all neutral/road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite.  The Hoosiers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs.  Take Indiana Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington PK 

Washington (12-7) and Utah (10-7) have similar records this season, but there is a big difference between these teams.  I have the Huskies power-rated 10 points better than Utah on a neutral, so I’ll gladly back them as a pick ‘em here tonight. 

Washington has been one of the most unlucky teams in the country this season in close games.  They rank 348th out of 353 teams in the ‘luck’ factor because of these close losses.  Six of Washington’s seven losses have come by 7 points or fewer, including four by 4 points or less. 

Utah also has seven losses this season, but five of those seven have come by 16 points or more and by an average of 19 points per game.  That includes a 22-point loss to Coastal Carolina, a 39-point loss to Colorado, a 28-point loss to San Diego State, a 19-point loss to Arizona State and a 16-point loss to Arizona. 

Utah is 0-6 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Utes are 4-14-3 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog.  Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a dog.  The Utes are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games.  Bet Washington Thursday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers -2 

This is a very favorable spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They come in on two days’ rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go tonight.  They should be able to handle the Washington Wizards at home. 

The Wizards are coming off an overtime loss at Miami last night.  Washington will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Wizards will not have much left in the tank after that overtime defeat. 

Washington is 1-10 ATS in road games after allowing 130 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Cavaliers are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of less than 40%.  Take the Cavaliers Thursday. 

15* Jazz/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +8.5 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Golden State Warriors.  They have lost 11 of their last 12 games overall.  But they are getting healthier now and as a result they have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And now they are catching too many points at home tonight. 

Conversely, it’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Utah Jazz.  They have won 17 of their last 19 games overall and have gone 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  You are now clearly paying a tax to back the Jazz as 8.5-point road favorites here.  And keep in mind that 15 of those 17 wins came against teams with losing records so they have feasted on a soft schedule. 

The Warriors recently got D’Angelo Russell back from injury and now they will get both Draymond Green (8.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.6 APG) and Glenn Robinson III (12.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG) back from injury tonight.  The Warriors will give the Jazz a run for their money in this one.  After all, they’ve taken the Bucks, Clippers, Nuggets and Blazers to the wire during their 5-2 ATS run. 

Golden State is 11-3 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  They only lost 109-113 and 106-114 at Utah in both meetings this season.  The Warriors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Golden State is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Warriors Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -5.5 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have been flying under the radar all season in going 14-4 and getting ranked for the first time since the 1970’s.  But with that national ranking and record comes expectations that are going to be hard to live up to. 

I think Rutgers suffers an emotional letdown after getting ranked.  It’s also a good time to ’sell high’ on the Scarlet Knights after going 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Rutgers has done most of its damage at home this season.  But the Scarlet Knights are just 1-4 in all games played away from home this season with their only win coming against lowly Nebraska. 

Iowa is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 17.0 points per game.  The Hawkeyes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in Big Ten home games, outscoring Minnesota, Maryland and Michigan by an average of 15.0 points per game.  I would argue all three of those teams are better than Rutgers. 

Iowa is 7-1 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Hawkeyes are 9-2 ATS as favorites this season.  Iowa is 10-2 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.  Fran McCaffery is 10-1 ATS in home games off two straight games with 19 or more assists as the coach of Iowa.  Bet Iowa Wednesday. 

20* 76ers/Raptors ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto -7 

The Raptors have been without five key players this season that have impacted them, especially in the last few weeks.  Siakam has missed 11 games, VanVleet 10, Lowry 10, Gasol 12 and Powell 11.  It’s amazing the Raptors have been able to compile a 29-14 record with all these injuries. 

But the Raptors revenge got everyone back healthy about four games ago.  It’s no coincidence they have gone 4-0 while winning those four games by an average of 13.3 points per game.  And three of those four games were on the road.  This is a dangerous Raptors team moving forward now that they are healthy. 

The 76ers have also won four straight without Joel Embiid and remain without him.  But the four wins came against the Nets (twice), Knicks and Bulls and they all went down to the wire in the 4th quarter.  Now this is a big step up in class for the 76ers, and they won’t be able to hang with the healthy Raptors without Embiid. 

The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The 76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home meetings with Philadelphia.  Toronto is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games on one days’ rest.  The Raptors are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. division opponents.  Take the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -1.5 

This is a big letdown spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They came back from 15 points down to beat the Rockets on Monday, 112-107.  That’s a rivalry game for them with the swapping of Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook in the offseason.   

The Thunder won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Magic tonight.  And they are dealing with a lot of injuries right now that will make matters worse for them.  Terrance Ferguson and Abdel Nader are out, while Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel are both questionable. 

The Magic are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they are 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are coming off a 23-point road win at Charlotte.  Nikola Vucevic will have his way in the paint against the Thunder if Adams is unable to go. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKC) - a good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%), after making 12 or more 3-pointers last game are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Orlando) - after allowing 85 points or less are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State -4 

Mississippi State had big expectations heading into 2019 with all the talent they returned.  But they opened just 9-6 with some bad losses.  However, they have certainly played up to their potential in their last two games.  It has been two of the most impressive performances in the SEC all season. 

The Bulldogs beat Missouri by 27 at home and Georgia by 32 at home in their last two games.  They covered the spread by a combined 50 points in those two contests.  And now I think we’re getting the Bulldogs cheap again at home Wednesday against the Arkansas Razorbacks. 

The Razorbacks are coming off a tough home loss to Kentucky Saturday.  I usually like fading teams after facing Kentucky because it’s always hard for them to get up for their next opponent.  And Mississippi State owns Arkansas, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while covering the spread by a combined 64 points in those four games. 

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Arkansas) - off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that’s off a blowout home win by 20 points or more are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take Mississippi State Wednesday. 

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -5 

I love the spot for the Michigan Wolverines tonight.  They’ll be highly motivated for a win off back-to-back road losses at Minnesota and Iowa.  They have lost three of their last four overall with all three coming on the road. 

Now the Wolverines return home tonight on four days’ rest and ready to get back in the win column.  Michigan is 10-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Oregon in overtime.  And the Wolverines have won eight of their last nine meetings with Penn State. 

Penn State has been great at home but is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in Big Ten road games, losing by an average of 16.3 points per game.  The Wolverines are 64th out of 353 teams in 3-point percentage (36%) while the Nittany Lions are 253rd defending the 3 (34.1%). 

Michigan is 15-3 ATS off a loss over the last three seasons.  The Wolverines are 10-2 ATS in conference home games over the last two years.  Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet Michigan Wednesday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +4.5 

I love the spot for the Syracuse Orange tonight.  They want revenge from an 87-88 home loss to Notre Dame on January 4th.  They go from being 3.5-point favorites in that game to 4.5-point dogs in this rematch.  I think the wrong team is favored here. 

Syracuse has been playing its best basketball of the season since that loss to Notre Dame.  The Orange are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, upsetting Virginia 63-55 as 7-point road dogs, crushing Boston College 76-50 as 11.5-point home favorites and upsetting Virginia Tech 71-69 as 4-point road dogs. 

That was also a revenge game against VA Tech after losing at home to the Hokies.  And home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series of late as the road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  The Orange have played their best basketball on the road this season with their upset wins over Virginia, VA Tech and also Georgia Tech 97-63. 

Syracuse is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 road games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Orange are 8-1 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  The Orange are 11-3 ATS in conference road games over the last two seasons.  Notre Dame is 0-6 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 10-19 ATS in their last 29 home games.  Notre Dame is 6-21-1 ATS in its last 28 games off an ATS win.  Roll with Syracuse Wednesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John’s +8.5 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on St. John’s after losing five of their last six games overall.  The Red Storm have been undervalued for over a month as they are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have taken some good teams to the wire and have also beaten some very good teams. 

Indeed, the Red Storm have upset wins over West Virginia and Arizona.  They only lost by 2 to Butler, by 3 to Seton Hall, by 5 to Providence and by 8 to Xavier during this stretch.  They only have one loss by more than 8 points in their last 13 games and only two losses by more than 8 points all season. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Marquette after two straight wins and covers over Xavier at home and Georgetown on the road.  This is a Marquette team that had lost by 14 at Seton Hall and to Providence at home in their two games prior.  It’s just not a Golden Eagles team that can be trusted to lay a big number like this against a quality opponent. 

St. John’s is 8-2 ATS vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Golden Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take St. John’s Tuesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +15 

Wisconsin ranks 351st in adjusted tempo out of 353 teams this season.  They play at a snail’s pace, which makes it very difficult for them to win by margin.  I will gladly fade them as 15-point home favorites over Nebraska tonight. 

It’s certainly a letdown spot for the Badgers as well.  They have played four ranked teams in their last five games.  They won’t be able to get up for Nebraska like they were in those five games, which were all decided by 12 points or fewer. 

Nebraska is undervalued right now due to its 7-11 record.  But the Huskers are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg.  The Huskers have gone 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with only one loss by more than 12 points during this stretch.  That includes upset wins over both Purdue and Iowa. 

This has been a very closely-contested series through the years.  Indeed, each of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 15 points or fewer.  Nine were decided by 12 points per less.  That makes for a 9-0-1 system backing the Huskers pertaining to this 15-point spread.  Bet Nebraska Tuesday. 

20* Clippers/Mavs NBA TV No-Brainer on Dallas -1.5 

Kristaps Porzingis has missed the last 10 games for the Mavericks.  There’s a great chance he returns tonight.  The timing makes sense as the Mavericks come in on three days’ rest after last playing on Friday, giving Porzingis a few extra days to heal. 

The Mavericks have been playing well without him in going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  And now they want revenge from a 99-114 loss to the Clippers in their first meeting this season.  The Mavericks have gone 31-12 SU in their last 43 home meetings with the Clippers. 

Los Angeles will remain without Paul George tonight.  The Clippers haven’t exactly been juggernauts on the road this season.  They are 11-9 SU but 9-11 ATS.  And while they’ve won five of their last six coming in, the five wins have all come against teams with losing records in the Knicks (by 3), Warriors (by 9), Cavaliers, Magic and Pelicans (by 3).  The Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

Dallas is 17-5 ATS off a home game this season.  Los Angeles is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games off a win.  The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Clippers.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Purdue -5.5 

This is a great spot to back the Purdue Boilermakers.  They are highly motivated for a win after losing three of their last four, and they want revenge from a 37-63 loss at Illinois in which they couldn’t make anything, shooting 25% as a team and 3-of-17 from 3-point range. 

But all three of those losses came on the road.  Purdue has won 15 straight Big Ten home games dating back to February 2018.  They have won six straight home games against ranked teams.  They are 8-1 at home this season including wins over Michigan State by 29 and Virginia by 29. 

No. 21 Illinois is starting to get some love from oddsmakers after winning four straight and moving into the Top 25 for the first time this season.  But they were fortunate to win their last three, beating Wisconsin by 1 on the road, and Rutgers by 3 and Northwestern by 4 at home.  Their luck runs out tonight against a hungry Boilermakers squad. 

Purdue is 9-2 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  Purdue is 7-0 SU in its last six home meetings with Illinois winning by 12.1 points per game on average.  The Boilermakers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.  Purdue is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Purdue Tuesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +17 

This number has gotten out of control for a rivalry game between Kansas and Kansas State.  I’ll gladly side with the road underdog Wildcats in what should be a defensive battle with limited possessions and that favors the big road dog. 

The Wildcats are 8-9 this season and undervalued because of their record.  But keep in mind they have six losses by 8 points or fewer.  All nine losses have come by 14 points or less as well, so they haven’t lost by a margin this big all season.  And they’re coming off a huge confidence-building 84-68 upset of West Virginia as 7-point dogs. 

West Virginia took Kansas to the wire in a 53-60 road loss at 10-point dogs.  Baylor won outright at Kansas by 12 as 7.5-point dogs.  Those were the Jayhawks’ last two home games.  They are actually playing better on the road than at home this season.  They’ve consistently been overvalued at home. 

Each of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by 16 points or less, making for a 7-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 17-point spread.  The Wildcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.  Kansas State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off an upset win by 15 points or more as an underdog.  Roll with Kansas State Tuesday. 

15* Warriors/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +6.5 

The Golden State Warriors have been much more competitive here of late.  They have recent losses to the Bucks and Clippers by single digits as double-digit dogs.  They upset the Magic last time out as 6-point dogs and they took the Nuggets to overtime as dog. 

I think the Warriors can hang with a depleted Portland Trail Blazers team that is missing Nurkic, Hood, Collins, Labissiere, McCollum and Ariza.  These injuries are a big reason the Blazers are just 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  And it’s a tired Blazers team that hasn’t has two consecutive days off since Christmas, making matters worse. 

The Warriors are 20-9 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Portland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games off a loss.  Take the Warriors Monday.