15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers +12.5

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after losing 116-88 in a NBA Cup game last night to the Rockets, who were motivated.  I don't think the Rockets will be nearly as motivated tonight to beat this team twice in two days.

The Blazers are in the much better rest spot with both teams playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. This is just the 4th game in 11 days for the Blazers, while it will be the 5th game in 7 days and the 9th game in 14 days for the Rockets.

The Blazers also shot just 33% last night including 11-of-43 (25.6%) from 3-point range.  I can't see them shooting nearly that poorly again in the rematch.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Baylor -7.5

The Baylor 'buy' signs are high right now.  I've been riding this team in their last few games and will continue to ride them this week. The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their offense is unstoppable right now averaging 45.8 points per game and 551 yards per game in their four consecutive wins and covers.

The fact of the matter is Houston cannot keep up with Baylor.  The Bears will get their points.  Houston has been held to 17 points or fewer in six of its 10 games this season.  The Cougars rank 133rd in scoring offense at 14.0 points per game.  That is absolutely atrocious in today's college football.

I think the Cougars hit an all-time low last week losing 27-3 to Arizona.  That was a previously dead Arizona team that couldn't stop anyone.  They had allowed 56 points to UCF in their previous game and held Houston to 3.  Their defense is decimated by injuries.

Houston has been able to hang with teams that play slow, defensive-minded football this season.  They haven't been able to hang with the better offenses they have faced that are more up-tempo like Baylor.  The Bears will test them in a big way as they rank 11th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.  The Cougars won't be able to keep up.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Total DOMINATOR on Boise State/Wyoming UNDER 57.5

This is strictly a play on the weather.  There is expected to be 20 MPH sustained winds in Laramie Saturday night with gusts up to 40 MPH.  Wind affects scoring more than any other weather element, and these teams are going to be forced to keep the ball on the ground in a defensive battle that keeps the clock moving for four quarters.

Wyoming will be able to stack the box to try and stop RB Ashton Jeanty without worry that Boise State will try to throw it much.  And I have no doubt Boise State is going to be able to stop this hapless Wyoming offense.

The Cowboys rank 119th in scoring offense at 20.4 points per game, 118th in total offense at 326.8 yards per game and 123rd at 4.9 yards per play.  Boise State ranks 13th in the country allowing 104.7 rushing yards per game and 17th at 3.3 per carry.  Wyoming is going to need to score at least 20 points for us to lose this UNDER, and I just don't seem them getting to 20.  

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 39 or fewer combined points in all five meetings.  Boise State and Wyoming have combined for 48 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Colorado/Kansas FOX No-Brainer on Kansas +3

Kansas is one of the best 4-6 teams in the history of college football. Kansas is 1-5 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.  The other was a misleading 11-point loss to TCU.  The Jayhawks have had two bye weeks in the last month and are fresh and showing what they are capable of now.

Kansas is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games with the lone loss coming 29-27 as 9.5-point underdogs at Kansas State in a game they deserved to win.  They returned from their first bye with a 42-14 dismantling of Houston as 5-point home favorites.  They came back from their 2nd bye and upset Iowa State 45-36 as 2-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium.  And last week they handed BYU their first loss in a 17-13 road win as 3-point dogs.

This Kansas offense has taken off behind QB Jaylon Daniels and RB Devin Neal.  They put up 42 points and 467 total yards on a very good Houston defense.  They put up 27 points and 401 total yards on a very good Kansas State defense.  And most impressive yet was the 45 points and 532 total yards they put up against arguably the best defense in the Big 12 in Iowa State.

Now the Jayhawks have their sights set on knocking Colorado off from the top of the Big 12 ranks.  Like BYU, Colorado has benefited from close wins and a soft schedule. The Buffaloes have managed to not have to face the top three teams in the Big 12 outside themselves.  They needed a hail mary to beat Baylor, and they lost by 3 at home to Kansas State, which is arguably the best Big 12 team they have faced this season.

Kansas can get whatever it wants against this Colorado defense.  And the Jayhawks have two of the top CB's in the Big 12 to match up with Travis Hunter and these Colorado receivers.  I like the matchup for the Jayhawks, who will have a big home-field advantage after outscoring Iowa State and Houston a combined 87-50 in their last two home games.  Bet Kansas Saturday. 

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on ECU/North Texas OVER 73

Both East Carolina and North Texas are dead nuts OVER teams.  They both have elite offenses, play fast, and play little to no defense.  North Texas ranks 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  East Carolina ranks 5th at 21.8 seconds between snaps.  You would be hard-pressed to find another game this season that is going to see more plays and possessions than this one.

The OVER is 5-0 in East Carolina's last five games overall with 63 or more combined points in all five.  Their offense is really humming right now putting up 56 against Temple, 49 against Florida Atlantic and 38 against Tulsa the last three weeks.  They have allowed at least 31 points in four of their last five games, and the only game they didn't was because FAU lost its starting QB early.

North Texas is 8-2 OVER in all games this season.  The Mean Green have gone for at least 67 combined points in seven of their 10 games this season.  They have allowed 45, 52 and 48 points in three of their last four games, and I suspect East Carolina will get into the 40's in this one.  The Mean Green rank 126th in total defense at 458.1 yards per game and 126th in scoring at 35.7 points per game.

The forecast looks good for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 12 MPH winds and no precipitation Saturday in Denton, TX.  This will be one of the most entertaining games of the season with these teams matching each other score for score for 60 minutes in a fast-paced game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +3

This is going to be a back and forth game with two of the Top 5 offenses in the country in terms of tempo.  But I think the difference is East Carolina will get one or two more stops than North Texas will because their defense is much better.

East Carolina's offense has taken off since switching quarterbacks to Katin Houser.  He has thrown for at least 269 yards in every game with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio in his last four games.  He led ECU to a 56-35 win over Temple, a 49-14 win over FAU and a 38-31 win at Tulsa.

Now Houser and company get to go up against one of the worst defenses in the country in North Texas.  The Mean Green rank 126th in scoring defense allowing 35.7 points per game and 126th in total defense allowing 458.1 yards per game.  Compare that to ECU, which allows 393.8 yards per game and 27.2 points per game, and it's easy to see that the Pirates have the much better defense in this one.

North Texas allowed 48 points to UTSA, 45 to Tulane and 52 to Memphis in three of its last four games coming in.  I don't think the Mean Green are all that motivated for a 6th win here knowing they can get it against lowly Temple next week to clinch bowl eligibility.  ECU has been rolling since making a coaching chance and the Pirates have all the momentum now.  The wrong team is favored in this game today.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

20* BYU/Arizona State ESPN No-Brainer on Arizona State -3

I faded BYU with success with Kansas +3 last week.  I'm fading the Cougars again this week as I still believe they are overvalued due to their fraudulent 9-1 record.  BYU is 4-1 in games decided by 6 points or less.  

They have been fortunate in close games all season, including a 1-point win over a bad Utah team and a 3-point win over a bad Oklahoma State team.  They finally had their luck run out last week, coming up a yard short in the red zone at the end of the game in a 17-13 loss to Kansas.  I think that's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

While BYU just had the wind taken out of their sails, Arizona State has all the momentum right now.  The Sun Devils have won three straight following their bye week with a 21-point win at Oklahoma State and a 4-point home win over UCF without star RB Cam Skattebo.

But Skattebo returned from injury last week to help lead the 24-14 upset at Kansas State.  The Sun Devils jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back.  Skattebo had 117 yards from scrimmage and averages 152 scrimmage yards per game this season.  While Skattebo gets all the credit for this team, it's QB Sam Leavitt who has made the biggest leap here down the stretch and his playing his best football of the season.  

Leavitt has a 9-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.  He is the reason the Sun Devils control their own destiny now in getting to the Big 12 Championship.  This team is playing with a massive chip on their shoulder after being picked to finish last by the media in the offseason.  That chip will remain squarely on their shoulder this week.

Arizona State wants to run Skattebo to set up the play-action for Leavitt.  They average 190.5 rushing yards per game.  BYU's weakness is stopping the run.  The Cougars allow 139.2 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry, which ranks 75th in the country.  BYU is balanced but leans on the pass more, and ASU is good in both departments.  They allow just 3.8 yards per rush attempt which ranks 47th and 6.3 yards per pass attempt which ranks 31st.

I think Arizona State has the better defense and their home-field advantage will be huge in this one as it should be one of the best atmospheres for a game in Tempe in years with what's at stake.  It's worth more than what is being factored into this line.  The Sun Devils should be more than 3-point home favorites here.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah State -4

The Utah State Aggies (3-7) and San Diego Aztecs (3-7) are both eliminated from bowl contention.  But these teams are trending in opposite directions, and I trust Utah State to show up a lot more than I do San Diego State.  Plus, this is Senior Day for the Aggies, so they will want to send their seniors out winners.

Utah State has been competitive in four of its last five games with the lone exception being a 49-28 loss at Washington State.  They only lost by 16 to UNLV, by 5 to New Mexico, beat Wyoming by 2 and then crushed Hawaii 55-10 last week.  The Aggies racked up 580 total yards on Hawaii and held them to just 309, outgaining them by 271 yards.  Hawaii had been playing very well going into that game.

San Diego State has really been dominated in the box score in three straight games.  They lost 56-24 at Boise State while getting outgained 541 to 256 by the Broncos.  They only lost 21-16 at home to New Mexico, but that was a bigger blowout than the final score as the Lobos outgained them 475 to 341 but left a lot of points on the board.  And last week they lost 41-20 at UNLV while getting outgained 515 to 270 by the Rebels.

So San Diego State is allowing 510.3 yards per game and only averaging 289 yards per game on offense in their last three games.  They are getting outgained by 221.3 yards per game during this stretch.  I don't see it going any better for the Aztecs against this high-octane Utah State offense that finally showed they could play a little defense against Hawaii last week.  

The Aggies rank 8th in total offense at 463.9 yards per game and 32nd at 6.4 yards per play.  Compare that to the Aztecs, who rank 120th in total offense at 324.7 yards per game and 20th at 4.9 yards per play, and it's easy to see that the Aztecs can't keep up with them in this one.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* Tulsa/USF AAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5

Both Tulsa and South Florida are dead nut OVER teams and this should be a shootout Saturday afternoon.  South Florida ranks 1st in tempo in the entire country snapping the ball every 20.6 seconds.  Tulsa ranks 22nd in tempo snapping it ever 24.1 seconds, so this game is going to see a ton of plays and a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points as a result.

South Florida just ran it down Charlotte's throat last week rushing for 425 yards in a 59-24 victory and 83 combined points.  They are going to be able to do the same against a Tulsa defense that ranks 130th in scoring defense at 38.4 points per game, 127th in total defense at 458.1 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.  Tulsa allowed 52 points to North Texas, 49 to Army, 45 to UTSA, 59 to UAB and 38 to ECU in five of its last six games, going 5-1 OVER in those six games.

Tulsa should find plenty of success on offense to help us get this OVER 60.5 home.  The Bulls rank 119th in total defense allowing 421.1 yards per game.  They are particularly poor against the pass, allowing 265.9 yards per game which ranks 126th in the country.  Tulsa QB Cooper Legas is a good dual-threat who threw for 293 yards and 3 TD against a pretty good ECU defense last week.  He also rushed for 43 yards on 13 carries in leading the Golden Hurricane to 31 points.

Tulsa and South Florida combined for 90 points in their last meeting.  The forecast looks great for another shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Total DOMINATOR on Rice/UAB OVER 51

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to Rice (3-7) traveling to UAB (2-8) Saturday.

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers play fast and they play no defense.  They rank 23rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.1 seconds.  They rank 127th in scoring defense allowing 36.8 points per game.  And UAB has played much better offensively since switching to Jalen Kitna at QB, averaging 444.3 total yards per game and 31.3 points per game in their last four games.  This total of 51 is very low for a game involving UAB right now.

The only reason this total is so low is because Rice has been an under team this season going 7-3 to the under.  But they haven't had QB EJ Warner healthy for part of the season, and he is healthy now and thriving.  Warner threw for 246 yards and 2 TD against Memphis and 239 yards and a TD against Navy in his last two games coming in.  He will have one of his best games of the season against UAB, similar to when he threw for 347 yards and 2 TD against UTSA, which is a team that profiles similar to UAB with no defense and up-tempo.

UAB and its opponents have combined for at least 54 points in eight consecutive games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 51-point total.  The forecast looks great for a shootout this afternoon with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss -10

I normally wouldn't want to back a team like Ole Miss off an upset win over Georgia.  But the Rebels cannot afford a letdown if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They have no margin for error and cannot afford a loss.  In fact, they would do themselves some by running up the score in their final two games to assure they make it.

The Rebels had a bye last week to celebrate their win over Georgia, and now they can refocus.  They are expected to get arguably the best receiver in the country back in Tre Harris from injury this week.  Harris was leading the country in receiving before getting hurt.  He has 59 receptions for 987 yards and 6 TD in only seven games this season.

Ole Miss has the numbers of the best team in the country, which shouldn't make it all that surprising they beat Georgia 28-10.  Their 'A' game is as good as any in the country.  They lead the nation in yards per play differential, averaging 7.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 3.2 yards per play.  So basically every time the ball is snapped they gain 3.2 yards of field position.  That is as elite as it gets.

I have backed Florida several times this season and I like this team more than most who left them for dead early in the season.  The Gators continue to fight for Billy Napier and I think the program made the right move in extending him.  He was dealt a tough hand with the toughest schedule in the country and has made the most of it, getting Florida over their 4.5-win total at 5-5 this season.  They want to get to a bowl, but they have Florida State on deck next week to accomplish that goal.  It's not going to happen this week.

This is where that tough schedule hurts Florida.  The Gators have had to play Georgia, Texas and LSU the last three weeks.  It's safe to say those were some very physical games and they have taken their toll as Florida is one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the country right now.  They are missing many of their top playmakers on offense and defense.

After losing by 14 to Georgia, they lost by 32 at Texas.  But they got QB DJ Lagway back last week from injury and he led them to a 27-16 upset win over LSU.  That was a bit of a misleading final with LSU outgaining Florida by 53 yards.  But the key is that their defense was on the field for 42 minutes and 92 plays.  All four of their starters in the secondary played all 92 snaps, too, because they are so short-handed in the secondary right now.

This Ole Miss offense is not the unit you want to face when you are tired defensively.  The Rebels rank 9th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters because they need style points, and I expect this Florida defense to break.  I don't think Lagway and company can keep up in a shootout either because the Rebels are going to get their points.  

Lane Kiffin is 15-2 SU & 12-4-1 ATS since 2019 as a road favorite.  He is 8-1 ATS in his last nine games as a road favorite of -4 or higher with the only non-cover coming as 10.5-point favorites in a 10-point win at Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.  Double-digit dogs off a conference win like Florida are on a 48-87 ATS run.  Florida has lost 14 consecutive games SU as a double-digit dog dating back to 2016.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss/Florida OVER 55

The Ole Miss Rebels had a bye last week to celebrate their win over Georgia, and now they can refocus.  They need style points to make the 12-team playoff and will be looking to run up the score against Florida.  They are expected to get arguably the best receiver in the country back in Tre Harris from injury this week.  Harris was leading the country in receiving before getting hurt.  He has 59 receptions for 987 yards and 6 TD in only seven games this season.

Ole Miss is elite offensively this season ranking 4th in scoring offense at 40.7 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 538.3 yards per game and 2nd at 7.6 yards per play.  They play at the 9th-fastest tempo in the country and don't let their opponents breath.  That was on display in their last road game when they suffocated Arkansas 63-31 for 94 combined points.  That's the same Arkansas defense that held Texas to 20 points and Tennessee to 14 at home.

This is where that tough schedule hurts Florida.  The Gators have had to play Georgia, Texas and LSU the last three weeks.  It's safe to say those were some very physical games and they have taken their toll as Florida is one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the country right now.  They are missing many of their top playmakers on defense.

After losing by 14 to Georgia, they lost by 32 at Texas.  But they got QB DJ Lagway back last week from injury and he led them to a 27-16 upset win over LSU.  But the key is that their defense was on the field for 42 minutes and 92 plays.  All four of their starters in the secondary played all 92 snaps, too, because they are so short-handed in the secondary right now.

This Ole Miss offense is not the unit you want to face when you are tired defensively.  The Rebels rank 9th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters because they need style points, and I expect this Florida defense to break.

Lagway has one of the best deep balls in the country and he is averaging 18.8 yards per completion this season.  I think he will have enough success with some deep balls to get Florida on the board quickly a few times in this game.  It likely won't be enough to hang with Ole Miss, but it will be enough to help us cash this OVER 55 ticket.  The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds without any threat of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland +6.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes had some life offensively when Brandon Sullivan took over at QB.  He was a dual-threat and added a dimension the Hawkeyes didn't have before, and it worked in blowout wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern.

But Sullivan got hurt in their 20-17 loss to UCLA.  Former starter Cade McNamara is done at Iowa, and now it's up to third-string QB Jackson Stratton.  He took over late for Sullivan in the loss to UCLA and went 3-of-6 for 28 yards.  This will be the first start of his career on the road in the Big Ten, and I don't expect it to go well for him.

Maryland will be motivated sitting at 4-6 on the season and two wins away from bowl eligibility.  They host Nebraska next week, so these next two games are very winnable.  They are in this position because they lost 31-17 to Rutgers last week.  But that misleading final is the reason we are getting more points with the Terrapins than we should be today.

Maryland goes from being a 4-point home favorite over Rutgers to a 6.5-point underdog to Iowa.  That's a 10.5-point adjustment.  I power rate Rutgers and Iowa very similarly.  Maryland outgained Rutgers 457 to 360 for the game, or by nearly 100 yards, which is why I say it was a misleading final.

I like the matchup for the Terrapins, too.  Iowa needs to run the football to be effective because they have the 127th-ranking passing attack in the country, and it's going to be even worse with Stratton.  The Terrapins rank 29th in allowing just 115.4 rushing yards per game and 30th at 3.6 per carry.  They are great along the front seven and weak in the secondary, which is something Iowa will not be able to exploit.

Heavy passing teams have had success throwing the ball against Iowa.  UCLA, Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa State all had a lot of success throwing the ball on Iowa's defense.  The Terrapins are getting great production from their pasisng game this season.  QB Billy Edwards is completing 65% of his passes for 2,855 yards with a 15-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  He gets to throw to two of the most underrated receivers in the country in Felton and Prather, who have combined for 138 receptions, 1,629 yards and 10 TD this season.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* Indiana/Ohio State FOX No-Brainer on Indiana +13.5

What more does Indiana have to do to get some respect? The Hoosiers are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS this season with nine of their 10 wins coming by 14 points or more.  They led Michigan 17-3 at halftime and it turned into a 5-point game as they took their foot off the gas in the 2H going into their bye week and looking ahead to this game against Ohio State, which is understandable.

I think that effort is the only reason the Hoosiers are double-digit dogs here to Ohio State.  I think the Hoosiers can get back to playing with a chip on their shoulder because nobody is giving them a chance Saturday, talking about their strength of schedule.  Head coach Curt Cignetti is saying all the right things and even stated that they have been in control in every game this season, which is true.

Indiana has no weaknesses.  The Hoosiers rank 2nd in scoring offense at 43.9 points per game and 7th in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game.  They rank 9th averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and 2nd allowing 4.2 yards per play on defense.  Their 2.7 net yards per play differential is one of the best marks in the country.

Ohio State needed a late comeback to beat Nebraska 21-17 at home as 25-point favorites.  That's the same Nebraska team Indiana blasted 56-7 as 6.5-point home favorites.  No question the Buckeyes are one of the best teams in the country, but they have some problems along the offensive line that I think Indiana can exploit.

Ohio State just lost starting C Seth McClaughlin to a season-ending Achilles injury in practice this week.  Injuries at the center position are worth more than what is being factored into the line.  He makes all the calls up front, and the Buckeyes don't have much time to prepare to play without him.  They were already without starting LT Josh Simmons, so they are now missing two starters up front.

The Buckeyes need to be able to run the ball to be effective because Will Howard is shaky at times in the passing game.  I don't see them having much success on the ground with these O-Line injuries, plus the fact that Indiana ranks 1st in the country allowing just 72.2 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 2.5 yards per rush.  The Hoosiers are also off a bye week so they have had two weeks to rest and prepare for the Buckeyes, a fact that also isn't being factored into the line enough.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on UC-Irvine -6.5

UC-Irvine is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Anteaters went 24-10 (17-3 Big West) last season and return four starters from that team that all averaged at least 9.0 points per game.

The Anteaters are 4-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in lined games this season absolutely crushing the first two spreads.  They beat Chapman 82-52 in their opener, then followed it up with a 66-51 win at Loyola-Marymount as 1.5-point favorites and a 80-60 win at Northern Iowa as 3.5-point dogs, covering the spread by a combined 37 points in those two games.  They also beat Pepperdine 80-62 as 16-point favorites last time out.

Now the Anteaters should make easy work of a Weber State team that has been dreadful this season.  The Wildcats are 1-3 SU & 1-2 ATS this season.  They lost 76-48 at Oregon State as 5-point dogs, lost 88-58 at Nevada as 17-point dogs and lost 73-68 at Hawaii as 5.5-point dogs, covering by 0.5-point after failing to cover by a combined 36 points in their first two games.  Bet UC-Irvine Friday.

15* Pacers/Bucks Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on OVER 235.5

The Indiana Pacers like to play with pace and they rank 23rd in defensive rating.  They profile as an OVER team.  The Milwaukee Bucks just got Damian Lillard back and are fully healthy with the exception of Middleton.  This game profiles as a shootout.

These NBA Cup games can get pretty wild in the 4th quarter because point differential is the tiebreaker in group play.  You see favorites not dribble the ball out, and the team that is down continuing to play the foul game to try and stay alive as long as possible.

Indiana is 11-4 OVER in all games this season and are coming off 249 combined points with Toronto and 243 combined points with Houston in their last two games.  In their four regular season meetings last season, the Pacers and Bucks went for 247, 266, 235 and 272 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Bulls OVER 245.5

The Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls are the two most dead nuts OVER teams in the NBA this season.  The Bulls rank 1st in pace while the Hawks rank 2nd in pace.  The Bulls rank 27th in defensive rating while the Hawks rank 20th.

The Hawks are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  The Bulls are fully healthy outside of Ball and Williams.  They have been a much better offensive team since getting Zach LaVine back from injury.

This will be the 2nd meeting between the Hawks and Bulls this season.  The Bulls won 125-113 for 238 combined points on November 9th in that first meeting.  But that game died in the 4th quarter with just 50 combined points.  

I think this 4th quarter will be much different as whoever is ahead will be motivated to win by as much as possible with point differential being the tiebreaker in group play in these NBA Cup games.  Get ready for a much more high-scoring 4th quarter tonight that should sail over this 245.5-point total. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Purdue/Michigan State FOX No-Brainer on Michigan State -13.5

I love the spot for the Michigan State Spartans Friday night.  They sit at 4-6 on the season and highly motivated for a win to get within one win of bowl eligibility with another winnable home game against Rutgers on deck next week.  It will be a great atmosphere Friday night as fans are excited about head coach Jonathan Smith and the direction of this team.

Michigan State is coming off a misleading 38-16 road loss at Illinois last week, which is why this line is below 14 and providing us value.  Illinois only outgained Michigan State by 26 yards.  It was a 6-point game entering the 4th quarter.

After going through a gauntlet of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Oregon and Ohio State in their last six games coming in, the Spartans will be looking forward to a big step down in class against the worst team in the Big Ten in Purdue.  They will take out their frustration and win this game going away.

Purdue is 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Seven of those nine losses came by 17 points or more, and you can chalk up another blowout loss for the Boilermakers tonight.  After losing in OT to Northwestern coming out of their bye at home, they have simply quit the last two weeks losing 45-0 to Ohio State and 49-10 to Penn State.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank on this short week, and they are just ready for the season to be over at this point.

Michigan State had a bye prior to Illinois and should still be fresh, which is an advantage on this short week.  The Spartans are 8-1 SU in their last nine meetings with the Boilermakers, and they haven't gotten to face a Purdue team that has been this bad during this stretch.  They'll take advantage of this opportunity and win going away tonight.  Bet Michigan State Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Utah State/Iowa OVER 168

This has the makings of the biggest shootout on the entire college basketball board tonight with the way that both Iowa and Utah State like to push the tempo.  The books haven't set this total high enough as a result as I think both teams can get into the 90's.

Iowa ranks 48th in adjusted tempo and 22nd in average possession length on offense at 14.9 seconds.  Utah State ranks 56th in adjusted tempo including 10th in average possession length on offense at 14.5 seconds.

Utah State is scoring 104 points per game this season while ranking 12th in effective field goal percentage.  Iowa is scoring 86.6 points per game this season while ranking 37th in that same category.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Nebraska/Creighton FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +11

Fred Hoiberg is doing a great job at Nebraska turning them into a much more competitive program.  He has them off to a 3-1 start this season with their lone loss coming to Saint Mary's by 3 on a neutral as 4-point dogs.

Creighton is overvalued as a Top 25 team and that has played out as the Bluejays are 1-3 ATS this season with their lone cover coming by 2 points.  These teams have two common opponents already and seeing the results from those two games has led me to Nebraska +11 showing value.

Nebraska outscored UTRGV by 20 and Fairleigh Dickinson by 26 winning those two games by a combined 46 points.  Creighton outscored UTRGV by 13 and Fairleigh Dickinson by 26 winning those two games by 39 combined points.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Wizards OVER 236

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They play a Boston Celtics team that is shooting even more 3-pointers this season while ranking 3rd in offensive rating, so the Celtics are going to hang a big number on them.

This is a NBA Cup game so the Celtics want to improve their point differential, which is the tiebreaker in group play.  That means they will be keeping their foot on the gas for four quarters.

In their last NBA Cup game, the Wizards showed they won't quit in their 130-139 loss at San Antonio.  That game saw 70 combined points in the 4th quarter including 39 from Washington.  The Wizards will keep coming for four quarters as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Michigan -30.5

Michigan looks like one of the most improved teams in the country.  First-year head coach Dusty May comes over from Florida Atlantic fame after taking the Owls to the Final 4 two years ago.  He is already putting his imprint on this program.

The Wolverines are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming by 2 to Wake Forest as 2-point favorites on a neutral.  They blasted Cleveland State 101-53 as 21.5-point favorites, which is the same Cleveland State team that only lost by 13 at Kansas State and by 11 at Minnesota.  The Wolverines beat TCU 76-64 as 6.5-point home favorites and crushed Miami Ohio 94-67 as 23-point favorites.

Now Michigan takes an even bigger step down in class here against Tarleton State, which looks like one of the worst teams in the country this season.  Tarleton is 1-4 SU & 0-4 ATS with its lone win coming against Tabor College.  They lost by 32 at SMU at 14.5point dogs, by 29 at home to Sam Houston State as 5.5-point dogs, by 20 at Florida State as 17-point dogs and then by a whopping 63 points at Baylor as 31.5-point dogs.  Mercy.

It's not going to get any easier for the Texans and head coach Billy Gillespie tonight.  He lost all five starters from last season and frankly has lost his touch as a head coach.  The Texans are turning the ball over on 31.8% of possessions, which is the worst mark in the country.  They are averaging steals on just 17.8% of possessions, which is also worst in the country.  Michigan ranks 4th in the country in effective FG percentage at 64.4%.  The Wolverines will get what they want offensively and shut down Tarleton defensively similar to what SMU, Sam Houston and Baylor did to them.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

20* Steelers/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on OVER 36

The lookahead total for this game was 42.  Bettors were anticipating weather so they bet this all the way down to a low of 36.  I bought the dip at 36 below the key numbers of 37 and 38 when it comes to NFL totals.  I think there's great value here on the OVER 36.

The forecast looks much better now than they projected early in the week, which happens all the time.  What was forecast to be 15-20 MPH winds is now in the single-digits.  Yes, there will be possible snow and rain, but wind affects scoring much more than precipitation.  A slick field actually favors the offense because players know where they are going.

The Steelers were trending as an OVER team with Russell Wilson at quarterback.  They went 3-0 OVER in his first three starts with 52, 44 and 55 combined points before a 18-16 victory over the Ravens last week that stayed well under the total of 48.5.  That result I think is keeping this total lower than it should be as well.

The Steelers had to settle for 6 field goals against the Ravens as they simply could not punch in their scoring chances.  The Ravens also blew some opportunities as well.  And that's one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL and usually lower scoring to boot as they know each other inside and out.

Cleveland is an OVER team with Jameis Winston at quarterback. They have gone for 53, 37 and 49 combined points in his three starts.  He stretches the field with big plays and big mistakes.  Winston threw for 395 yards and 2 TD against the Saints last week in a 35-14 loss.  The Browns left a lot of points on the board including three missed field goals.  They still managed 49 combined points.

That's because this Cleveland defense is broken.  They allowed 35 points and 473 total yards to what was a short-handed New Orleans offense.  Taysom Hill ran for 138 yards on only seven carries and three touchdowns.  I think the Steelers will have similar success against them tonight.

The Steelers and Browns have combined for at least 40 points in seven of their last nine meetings.  And there has been some very poor QB play during this stretch, but I think these two teams are in about as good a shape as they have been at the QB position in a long time.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons -1

The Detroit Pistons have been better than expected this season at 7-9 SU & 9-6-1 ATS in 16 games.  They have won four of their last seven coming in.  Prior to that, they lost 108-107 at the buzzer to the Charlotte Hornets.

Now the Pistons will be out for revenge tonight which is why I love this spot for them.  The Pistons are fully healthy while the Hornets are not.  They are without two centers in Williams and Richards, starting SF Bridges is questionable and key bench PG Tre Mann is banged up.

The Pistons are also the more rested team coming in on two days' rest, while the Hornets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  Bet the Pistons Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +12

Injuries are starting to pile up for the Oklahoma City Thunder and they aren't playing that well since losing their star big man in Chet Holmgren.  They are coming off consecutive losses to the Mavericks as 7-point home favorites who were without Luka Doncic, and to the Spurs as 9.5-point favorites who were without Victor Wembenyama.

Now the Thunder are in a brutal rest spot tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  They won't handle this situation very well with how short-handed they are right now, and they have no business being 12-point favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers given the spot.

The Blazers are as fresh as can be.  They will be paying just their 2nd game in 7 days.  They are also one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Timberwolves by 14 as 9-point dogs, then came back the next night and backed it up with an 8-point win over the Timberwolves as 10-point dogs.  They also upset the Hawks by 4 as 4-point dogs last time out.  This line is way out of whack given the circumstances.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets -6.5

The Houston Rockets are 10-5 SU & 10-5 ATS this season and one of the most improved teams in the NBA.  They are also one of the healthiest teams in the NBA and brought back pretty much everyone from last year, so their chemistry is great in the early going.

That has been on display as the Rockets have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming by a single points at Milwaukee.  Their last four wins have come by a combined 80 points, and by an average of 20 points per game.

Now the healthy Rockets get to face a very banged up Indiana Pacers team that will be without Wiseman, Jackson, Nesmith and Nembhard, plus Turner, Sheppard and Walker are all questionable.  The Pacers have clearly been hampered by these injuries going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games, no loss worse than their 130-119 loss at Toronto as 3.5-point favorites last time out.

Houston has actually lost nine consecutive meetings with Indiana including losses by 6 and 3 points in their two meetings last season.  I think head coach Ime Udoka will play the revenge card tonight and remind his players of that losing streak, and thus we'll see an inspired effort from them tonight.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +8.5

The Bulls have been playing much better since getting Zach LaVine back from injury.  They are 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall which includes upset wins over the Knicks as 8.5-point road dogs, the Hawks as 2.5-point road dogs and the Pistons as 4-point road dogs.  They are playing their best basketball on the road this season.

Now they head to Milwaukee to take on a Bucks team that is grossly overvalued.  The Bucks are 5-9-1 SU & 4-9-1 ATS with one of the worst rosters in the league outside of Giannis and Lillard.

The Bulls already beat the Bucks 133-122 as 9.5-point dogs in Milwaukee in their first meeting this season.  Lillard and Giannis combined for 66 points on 26-of-44 shooting and the Bucks still lost by double-digits.  That says all you need to know about the rest of their roster.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -14.5

I put this play in as soon as I saw the Pelicans were going to rest Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy.  They were already without Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Jordan Hawkins and Dejounte Murray.  Those are their top 6 leading scorers this season that they will be without tonight.  Mercy.

The Pelicans are 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS this season and it is getting worse before it gets better.  The Pelicans are 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall with their lone win coming against a Nuggets team that was without Jokic and Gordon.  Five of their eight losses have come by 15 points or more, including their 41-point loss at Dallas last night.

Now the Pelicans will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and won't have Ingram and Murphy, who combined for 36 of their 91 points in that 132-91 loss to the Mavericks last night.  This is literally a G-League team right now with the players they are putting on the court.

I know since I released this play the Cavaliers didn't get the best injury news with Darius Garland out due to rest.  But they should still have Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley on the court, and they'll have more than enough firepower to beat the Pelicans by 15-plus.

I originally wasn't going to take the Cavaliers because of the spot off their first loss of the season to the Celtics by 3 last night.  But teams who had a 12-game or more winning streak snapped are 43-26-2 ATS in their next game, and teams that had a 14-game or more winning streak snapped are 27-10 ATS in their next game.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo/Eastern Michigan OVER 53

Both Buffalo and Eastern Michigan like to play fast, no-huddle offenses which is going to give us extra possessions in this game and more opportunities for points.  Buffalo ranks 21st in tempo snapping the ball every 24 seconds while Eastern Michigan ranks 27th snapping it ever 24.2 seconds.  These are two of the worst defenses int the MAC to boot.

Many bettors took the under in this game due to weather concerns, but I don't think it looks that bad.  Temps will be in the 40's with 15 MPH winds and there shouldn't be much precipitation by the time the game starts.  I think both offenses will have a lot more success than most are thinking due to the weather.

Buffalo is a dead nuts OVER team especially of late.  The Bulls have gone 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 99, 71, 63 and 89 combined points in there last four games.  This 53-point total is very low for a game involving the Bulls with the way they are trending right now.

Eastern Michigan is 4-2 OVER in its last six games overall with 52 or more combined points in four of those six games.  If this game is played more on the ground, neither team can stop the run.  Buffalo ranks 77th allowing 4.3 per carry while Eastern Michigan is even worse ranking 95th allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  Both teams are pretty balanced offensively.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 54 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -3.5

Note: I locked in this play as soon as I saw Nikola Jokic was out.  It would still be a 20* Top Play up to -6.

The Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy with the exception of JA Morant, but they have proven they can play without him.  The Grizzlies went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS before showing they could play with two of the best teams in the West in the Lakers and Warriors on the road.

I was almost more impressed that they only lost by 5 to the Lakers as 7.5-point road dogs and by 5 to the Warriors as 7-point road dogs without Morant than I was with their 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS run before that.  The Grizzlies are now 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and they are rested playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The Grizzlies have absolutely dominated in their last four home games going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS, beating the Wizards by 24 as 7.5-point favorites, the Lakers by 17 as 4-point favorites, the Bucks by 23 as 6.5-point underdogs and the Nuggets by 15 as 6-point favorites.  I look for them to crush the short-handed Denver Nuggets again tonight.

The Nuggets will be without both Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon tonight, and they have no shot of winning this game without these two.  We saw their first game without Jokic they lost 101-94 at New Orleans as 2-point favorites.  And that's a Pelicans team that is missing more key players to injury than any team in the NBA right now.

The Nuggets went on to lose 105-90 at Memphis last time out.  And the Grizzlies called off the dogs in the 4th quarter sitting their starters after a 20-point lead entering the final period.  Normally I'd be worried about a letdown for a team like Memphis in this spot, but not with the NBA Cup on the line.  The Grizzlies are motivated to win the NBA Cup and with point differential being a tiebreaker, I expect them to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters and try to run it up.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Nets OVER 220.5

This is a pretty low total for an NBA Cup game where both the Charlotte Hornets and Brooklyn Nets will be keeping their foot on the gas for four quarters knowing that point differential matters for tiebreakers.  I would like this OVER 220.5 even if that wasn't a factor, but it's certainly a factor tonight.

The Hornets have to go more small ball right now without C Mark Williams and C Nick Richards.  They have gone OVER the total in their last two games coming in combining for 229 points with the Bucks and 242 points with the Cavaliers.

The Nets also have to go more small ball right now without C Nic Claxton and without fellow C Day'Ron Sharpe.  The OVER is 3-1 in Nets last four games overall including 253 combined points with the Celtics and 246 combined points with the Knicks, which was a NBA Cup game.

The Nets and Hornets have combined for at least 229 points in six of their last nine meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Cavs/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +5.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 15-0 SU & 11-4 ATS this season and dodging letdown spots left and right.  It's safe to say they won't be having a letdown tonight considering the Celtics knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  They want to make a statement tonight and prove they can beat the defending champs.

The Cavaliers were ravaged by injuries in the playoffs last year playing without both Mitchell and Allen by the end of the series.  But they are much healthier now with Mitchell, Allen, Mobley and Garland all playing tonight.  That's one of the best quartets in the NBA and it's a big reason the Cavaliers are 15-0 right now.

It's also due to the change in philosophy with head coach Kenny Atkinson, who has transformed the Cavaliers into the league's top-ranked offense, even ahead of the Celtics.  They are playing faster and shooting more 3-pointers and the ball isn't sticking in Mitchell's hands like it used to.

Boston is just 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall with some very alarming performances.  They Celtics lost outright to the Hawks as 16-point home dogs and needed OT to beat the Raptors by 3 as 16.5-point favorites in their last two home games.  I just think this team is going through the motions after winning the title, and although they will be motivated tonight, they won't be as motivated as Cleveland.  The Cavaliers are the better team right now and they'll prove it tonight.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Cleveland State/Minnesota UNDER 133.5

Minnesota is 4-0 UNDER in its four games this season going for 137, 132, 105 and 115 combined points with its four opponents.  What makes the Gophers a dead nuts UNDER team is that they rank 360th in adjusted tempo including 353rd in average possession length on offense.

Now Minnesota faces another dead nuts UNDER team in Cleveland State, which 3-0 to the UNDER in its last three games.  The Vikings rank 333rd in average possession length on offense.  So neither team is looking to run, and both are much better defensively than they are on offense.  This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Ohio State -24.5

I like the spot for the Ohio State Buckeyes tonight.  They suffered their first loss of the season on the road at Texas A&M last time out, and they'll come back highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.

The Buckeyes have played a tough schedule as they also beat Texas in their opener 80-72 as 2-point dogs on a neutral in Vegas.  They followed it up with a 81-47 blasting of Youngstown State as 19-point favorites in their lone home game this season.  That 34-point win looks really good when you consider Youngstown State beat Chicago State by 20 and took Syracuse to double-OT in its other two games.

Evansville is rebuilding with just one starter back from last year, and the results have been ugly for the Purple Aces this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-3 ATS losing by 17 at North Texas as 13.5-point dogs, by 17 at Middle Tennessee as 11-point dogs and by 11 at home to Radford as 4-point favorites.  Radford lost by 40 at Pittsburgh.

This will be Evansville's toughest test of the season against a motivated Buckeyes team coming off a loss.  I don't expect it to go well for the Purple Aces tonight.  Bet Ohio State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on SIU-Edwardsville +4

SIU-Edwardsville is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Cougars are 4-2 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with both losses coming on the road to Indiana and Illinois, who are two of the best teams in the country.  They even covered in a 19-point loss at Indiana as 27.5-point dogs.

The Cougars have handled everyone else winning 95-42 over FCS Westminister, 77-72 as 6-point dogs at Indiana State, 79-60 as 2.5-point dogs at Western Michigan and 76-58 as 5.5-point favorites over Canisius on a neutral.  Those are some very impressive results.

Green Bay is a rebuilding team under first-year head coach Doug Gottlieb, the former commentator who I never thought would be a head coach.  It hasn't gone well for Gottlieb and the Phoenix in the early going.

The Phoenix are 1-3 SU this season and while two losses came on the road to Providence by 14 and to Oklahoma State by 13, those aren't two of the better power conference teams.  They also lost by 14 at home to St. Thomas, which looks really bad when you consider St. Thomas lost by 9 to Oklahoma State and by 15 at Arizona State.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet SIU-Edwardsville Tuesday.

20* Texans/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -7

I jumped on the Texans +5 on the opener last week against the Lions with the anticipation that Nico Collins would be back.  He ended up getting scratched right before the game, and I felt fortunate to cash that ticket in a 3-point loss to the Lions even though the Texans led that game 23-7 at home point.

Now Nico Collins is officially back this week, which is why I'm willing to lay the -7 with the Texans among other factors.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  He means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense, which has actually produced a great running game this season with Joe Mixon.  Now the passing game will take off again this week.

Of course, it helps that the Texans get to play the hapless Dallas Cowboys.  The Texans will be motivated coming off two consecutive losses so they won't be looking past Dallas.  And they get to take on a Cowboys team that just isn't very good for starters, and one that has been decimated by injuries this season as well.

The Cowboys are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost 47-9 as 3.5-point home dogs to the Lions, 30-24 as 5.5-point road dogs to the 49ers, 27-21 as 3.5-point road dogs to the Falcons and 34-6 as 7-point home dogs to the Eagles.  And they even scored a garbage TD late against the 49ers to make that score look closer than it was, and a garbage score against the Falcons late to make that score closer than it was.

The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott to injury in that loss to the Falcons to boot.  We saw what this team looks like without Dak at QB, and it's not pretty.  That 34-6 loss to the Eagles was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Cowboys managed just 146 total yards and 11 first downs against the Eagles.  They had 49 net passing yards on 26 attempts, averaging less than 2 yards per attempt.  I don't think I've ever seen passing numbers in the NFL that are that poor.

It's not going to get any easier this week against a Houston Texans defense that has been great all season.  The Texans rank 3rd in total defense at 288.0 yards per game and 5th at 5.2 yards per play allowed.  They rank 4th against the pass at 174.7 passing yards per game allowed, so Cooper Rush or Trey Lance won't be able to come back on them once they take a commanding lead.

Dallas is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS at home this season and has trailed by at least 20 points in all four home games.  They lost 44-19 to the Saints, 28-25 to the Ravens after trailing by 22 entering the 4th, 47-9 to the Lions and 34-6 to the Eagles.  And they had Dak Prescott running the offense for those first three games.  

The Cowboys don't have a running game to help out their QB, and they are lacking weapons outside of CeeDee Lamb, who is banged up right now.  They just aren't going to be able to score enough to keep this game competitive.  Houston is in line for one of its best offensive outputs of the season and hungry to get the offense going with Collins back.  Bet the Texans Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rockets/Bucks OVER 224

Both the Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks rank in the top half of the league in pace.  The Rockets are playing noticeably faster recently and it's paying off as they went for 143 points with the Bulls last night and 125 with the Clippers the game before.

But a big reason I'm on this OVER is because the Bucks get Damian Lillard back from injury tonight, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is healthy as well.  The Bucks are much more of an OVER team when these two are healthy because they are one of the toughest duos to stop in the NBA.

The Bucks and Rockets have combined for at least 228 points in eight of their last 10 meetings, making for an 8-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 224-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Pistons OVER 233.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They ranks 1st in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  The Bulls and their opponents have combined for at least 232 points in six consecutive games, including 238 or more five times.

The Detroit Pistons just scored 124 points against the Wizards last night after calling off the dogs in the 4th quarter in a blowout.  The Bulls just allowed 143 points to the Rockets last night in a blowout.  So while both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, both should still be pretty fresh considering no starter for either team played more than 30 minutes.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Cal/USC BTN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 152.5

California is playing fast ranking 52nd in adjusted tempo this season.  They combined with Bakersfield for 159 points, Cal Poly for 164 points and Vanderbilt for 154 points.  This total of 152.5 is pretty low for a game involving Cal right now.

That's especially the case when you consider USC head coach Eric Musselmen has the Trojans playing fast as well.  They rank 82nd in adjusted tempo and are coming off a 98-95 thriller with UT-Arlington for 193 combined points in regulation.

The last three meetings between Cal and USC have seen 157, 156 and 160 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Bengals/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 45

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall with 51 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  They just went for 69 combined points with the Ravens, 65 with the Raiders and 54 with the Eagles in their last three games coming in.

Now the Bengals get their star WR Tee Higgins back from injury this week and will be even more potent on offense.  They put up 41 points on the Raiders and 34 points and 470 yards on the Ravens in their last two games without him.  LT Orlando Brown may be back this week as well.

The Chargers have been an under team this season and they do have a great defense.  However, they have benefited from facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL.  They have faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis this season.  Mahomes was missing many of his key weapons.

The current version of this Cincinnati offense will be far and away the best the Chargers have seen all season.  The Chargers will be forced to keep up in a shootout, and they should be able to do just that with the way their offense is trending in recent weeks since getting several key players back from injury.

The Chargers put up 26 points on the Saints and weren't pressed so they took their foot off the gas late in that game.  They put up 27 points on the Browns on the road and 27 points on the Titans at home.  Those are two very underrated defenses.  Now they get to face a Cincinnati defense that ranks 26th in scoring at 26.2 points per game and 23rd in total defense at 347.5 yards per game.  The Chargers are in line for one of their best offensive performances of the season.  Cincinnati is without LB Joe Bachie and both DE Trey Hendrickson and DT BJ Hill are questionable.

This has the makings of a shootout in perfect conditions in Los Angeles Sunday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

I love the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They get a chance at quick revenge after losing 124-122 as 8.5-point road dogs to the Knicks on Friday.  Now they come back as 9.5-point dogs in the rematch, and this number should have been adjusted down instead of up for the spot.

The Nets have been one of the best covering teams in the NBA this season going 10-3 ATS in their 13 games.  They have been competitive in almost all their losses, and asking the Knicks to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

The Knicks lack depth this season as they have been without Achiuwa and Robinson all season.  Towns and McBride are both questionable.  I like the Nets even if both guys go, and this line will crash if Towns doesn't play.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Blazers OVER 231.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-2 OVER in their 13 games this season with 232 or more combined points in 12 of their 13 games.  That makes for a 12-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 231.5-point total.

What makes the Hawks are dead nuts OVER team is ranking 3rd in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  They play fast and they play no defense.  They are getting healthier and showing they have a deep team scoring 117 or more points in four of their last five games.

The Blazers also like to play faster this season ranking 9th in pace and 20th in defensive rating.  They are coming off a low-scoring game against the Timberwolves which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  It was the 2nd meeting in 2 days with the Timberwolves, who they combined for 230 points with the night before.  Minnesota shot 7-of-39 (18%) from 3-point range which is why it was so low-scoring.

Both teams are fresh and ready to run.  The Blazers have had the last three days off, while the Hawks will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy with the exception of JA Morant, but they have proven they can play without him.  The Grizzlies went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS before showing they could play with two of the best teams in the West in the Lakers and Warriors on the road.

I was almost more impressed that they only lost by 5 to the Lakers as 7.5-point road dogs and by 5 to the Warriors as 7-point road dogs without Morant than I was with their 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS run before that.  Now they are highly motivated for a win coming back home, and they are rested playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.

The Grizzlies have absolutely dominated in their last three home games, beating the Wizards by 24 as 7.5-point favorites, the Lakers by 17 as 4-point favorties and the Bucks by 23 as 6.5-point underdogs.  I look for them to crush the short-handed Denver Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets will be without both Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon tonight, and they have no shot of winning this game without these two.  We saw their first game without Jokic they lost 101-94 at New Orleans as 2-point favorites.  And that's a Pelicans team that is missing more key players to injury than any team in the NBA right now.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on OVER 48

The San Francisco 49ers just got their full compliment of weapons back last week coming out of their bye.  They got Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and JaJuan Jenning all back from injury against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Those three combined for 276 of their 413 yards from scrimmage to show their importance to this team.  This 49ers offense is one of the best in the NFL when healthy, and that hasn't been the case for much of the season, and they are still putting up some of the best numbers in the league.

The 49ers rank 2nd in total offense at 412.4 yards per game and 2nd at 6.8 yards per play trailing only the potent Baltimore Ravens in both categories.  They have been able to score at will on Seattle for years as they just have their number, and they will be able to pretty much name their number against Seattle again.

The 49ers have averaged 34 points per game in their last four meetings with Seattle.  They beat the Seahawks 36-24 in their first meeting this season for 60 combined points, and a similar shootout will be the result in the rematch.  The 49ers had 483 total yards in that win.

Reinforcements are on the way for Seattle on offense now as well.  They had a bye last week, and DK Metcalf was close to coming back before the bye, and now he should be 100% coming out of the bye.  Metcalf means everything to this Seattle offense with his ability to stretch the field.  He has 568 receiving yards in basically just six games of action while averaging 16.2 per reception.

Geno Smith was lost the last two games without Metcalf against the Bills and Rams.  He will be much more comfortable this week.  He leads a Seattle offense that ranks 9th in total offense at 359.4 yards per game and 10th at 5.9 yards per play.  Geno threw for 312 yards in that first meeting with the 49ers and the Seahawks found a lot of success once they went up-tempo, which is something they may look to deploy again in the rematch.  That would benefit the OVER.

The 49ers just aren't as dominant defensively as they have been in the past, and Nick Bosa has been a non-factor for much of the season.  The Seahawks haven't lived up to the hype defensively this season with Mike McDonald.  They have allowed 26 or more points in five of their last six games and an average of 29.7 points per game during this stretch.  

I just don't think McDonald has the right players to run what he wants to run, and he even just cut his leading tackler in LB Tyrel Dodson.  The 49ers aren't the offense to get right against defensively coming out of their bye week. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Falcons/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44

The Atlanta Falcons are a dead nuts OVER team that hasn't exactly gone of the total much this season at 6-4 to the UNDER.  That is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Falcons have one of the best offenses in the NFL, but also one of the worst defenses in the league in their current state.  This total of 44 is too low for a game involving Atlanta right now.

The Falcons rank 5th in the NFL in total offense at 375.1 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  The put up 468 total yards on the Saints last week but only 17 points.  They missed three field goals and bogged down in the red zone.  I think that misleading 20-17 final against the Saints last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.

The Falcons allowed 365 total yards to what was a very injury-ravaged Saints offense that was missing their top three receivers and a couple offensive linemen.  The Saints picked up Marquez Valdes-Scantling off the street and he went for 109 receiving yards and 2 TD on this Atlanta defense.

Things have gone from bad to worse for this Atlanta defense, which gets the least pressure of any defense in the NFL this season with just 9.5 sacks in 10 games.  The injury report for their defense is almost laughable.  They are without CB Mike Hughes, CB Dee Alford, CB Antonio Hamilton and already have three other secondary players on IR.  They are without LB Troy Anderson, LB JD Bertrand, DE Ta'Quon Graham and LB James Smith-Williams.  They have 6 defenders on IR and 7 defenders ruled out just this week.  Mercy.

This Denver offense has been trending up under Rookie QB Bo Nix, who is arguably the second-best rookie QB in the NFL behind Jayden Daniels.  They put up 34 on the Raiders, 33 on the Saints and 28 on the Panthers.  Nix played a near perfect game against the Chiefs last week on the road going 22-of-30 passing for 215 yards and 2 TD and led what should have been the game-winning drive, but the Broncos had a short FG blocked on the final play that would have given them the upset win.

Nix and company should have one of their best games of the season against this injury-ravaged Atlanta defense.  The Falcons are going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because they aren't stopping Denver.  This is a solid Denver defense, but it's also true that they have benefited from facing a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses this season.  We saw what could happen against a legit offense two games ago when they allowed 41 points and 396 total yards to the Ravens.  The Falcons won't have that kind of success, but they will have enough to get us up and OVER this short total of 44.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

5* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Denver Broncos ML -128

I cashed in the Broncos +9 in their 16-14 loss to the Chiefs last week.  It was the type of gut-wrenching loss that I think sometimes beats a team twice, and as a result I didn't expect to be on the Broncos this week.  But I like the quotes coming out of their locker room off the loss, and once I saw the injury report for Atlanta, I have to be on the Broncos this week.

The Broncos sit at 5-5 on the season and still in great position to make the playoffs, but this feels like a must-win, so they should have no problem getting over the loss. to KC last week.  Atlanta has a commanding lead in the NFC South and won't be playing with as much urgency this week sitting at 6-4 on the season.

"This team has been resilient.  The sky isn't falling," head coach Sean Payton said. "We're sitting here 5-5 and we would've loved to be 6-4 with a win, but the focus shifts quickly to the next game.  I like the leadership on this time.  It's entirely different than it was a year ago.  It's tough mentally and physically, and we've got a good week of practice coming up before Atlanta."

The Broncos are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after facing the Chiefs in their previous game.  So, they haven't had letdowns in this spot previously, and they won't be having one Sunday, either.

This Denver offense has been trending up under rookie QB Bo Nix, who is arguably the second-best rookie QB in the NFL behind Jayden Daniels.  They put up 34 on the Raiders, 33 on the Saints and 28 on the Panthers.  Nix played a near perfect game against the Chiefs last week on the road going 22-of-30 passing for 215 yards and 2 TD and led what should have been the game-winning drive, but the Broncos had a short FG blocked on the final play that would have given them the upset win. Nix and company should have one of their best games of the season against this injury-ravaged Atlanta defense.

The Falcons allowed 365 total yards to what was a very injury-ravaged Saints offense that was missing their top three receivers and a couple offensive linemen.  The Saints picked up Marquez Valdes-Scantling off the street and he went for 109 receiving yards and 2 TD on this Atlanta defense.  The Saints upset the Falcons 20-17 at home despite all their injuries both on offense and on defense.

Things have gone from bad to worse for this Atlanta defense, which gets the least pressure of any defense in the NFL this season with just 9.5 sacks in 10 games.  The injury report for their defense is almost laughable.  They are without CB Mike Hughes, CB Dee Alford, CB Antonio Hamilton and already have three other secondary players on IR.  They are without LB Troy Anderson, LB JD Bertrand, DE Ta'Quon Graham and LB James Smith-Williams.  They have 6 defenders on IR and 7 defenders ruled out just this week.  Mercy.

While the Falcons have a great offense, I think the Broncos can hold them in check.  Denver is basically fully healthy on both sides of the football, and this defense has been the backbone of the team.  The Broncos rank 4th in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game and 5th in total defense at 295.7 points per game.  They rank 1st at 5.0 yards per play allowed.

Both teams will get their points, especially Denver, but this game will be decided by the Broncos getting more stops than this decimated Atlanta defense.  I really like the Broncos, and I really like the OVER in this game this week due to those Atlanta injuries.  Bet the Broncos on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Ravens/Steelers AFC North No-Brainer on OVER 46

The Pittsburgh Steelers have only faced Lamar Jackson once in their last five meetings with the Ravens either due to Jackson being injured or Baltimore resting its starters.  They're going to have to face the NFL MVP Sunday, and they aren't going to enjoy the experience.

This Baltimore offense is one of the best in NFL history.  The Ravens rank 1st in scoring at 31.8 points per game, 1st in total offense at 440.2 yards per game and 1st at 7.2 yards per play.  Jackson has more weapons than he has ever had with Flowers, Bateman, Johnson, Andrews, Likely, Hill and Agholor, and he has one of the best RB's the NFL has ever seen in Derrick Henry, who has already rushed for 1,120 yards and 12 TD.

The Steelers have a great defense, but they have also benefited from playing the league's 6th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses.  The Ravens will be far and away the best offense they have faced yet, and I don't expect it to go well for them.  The Steelers just lost one of their best pass rushers in LB Alex Highsmith last week to injury, and he is out for this one.  Not having him is a big blow to their defense.

The Steelers have taken off offensively since switching to Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback.  The OVER is 3-0 in Steelers last three games overall as they put up 37 points and 409 total yards on the Jets, 26 points and 426 total yards on the Giants and 28 points and 312 total yards on the Commanders.  The Steelers now have a downfield passing game with Wilson, and he has ample weapons with George Pickens leading the way plus the addition of Mike Williams.

The Steelers are capable of keeping up with the Ravens in a shootout and they are going to be forced to do just that, because the Ravens are going to get their points.  The weakness of Baltimore is their pass defense.  They rank dead last (32nd) in the NFL allowing 294.9 passing yards per game and 29th at 7.4 yards per attempt.  SS Kyle Hamilton is their most important player in the secondary and he is hobbled with an ankle injury.  Nickel CB Arthur Maulet is out, and NT Travis Jones is questionable as the Ravens are getting very thin on the defensive line.

These games between the Ravens and Steelers have been low-scoring in the pass largely because both were missing their starting QB's due to either rest or injury.  That's has been especially the case with Lamar Jackson, who has missed four of the last five meetings. But both teams are in the best shape they have been in a long time at the QB position coming into this one now.  I think the series history is keeping this total lower than it should be.  This has the makings of a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Green Bay Packers -6

The Green Bay Packers are coming off their bye week and should be basically fully healthy for the first time this season.  They are expected to get both CB Jaire Alexander and SS Evan Williams back from injury on defense this week, and they are one of the better defenses in the NFL when fully healthy.

Jordan Love returned early from a groin injury against the Lions and threw a costly pick-6 in a misleading 24-14 loss to the Lions going into the bye.  The Packers outgained the Lions 411 to 261 in that game, or by 150 total yards.  Love should be much healthier and get back to being his mobile self coming out of the bye.

But as much as I'm buying on the Packers coming off their bye, I'm selling on the Chicago Bears right now.  This organization is a mess right now, and head coach Eberflus is losing the locker room.  Clearly receivers aren't happy with Caleb Williams, most notably DJ Moore, and Williams is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league that is also banged up.

The Bears haven't scored a TD in 23 straight possessions on offense.  Caleb Williams has been sacked a league-high 38 times this season including 9 times last week by the Patriots alone.  The Bears were missing five starters along the offensive line at one point in that New England game due to injury.  They managed just 142 total yards against New England.

The Bears haven't recovered since losing on a hail mary in a 18-15 loss at Washington coming out of their bye week.  They didn't do anything in that game offensively until the 4th quarter as they were shut out in the first three quarters.  They went on to lose 29-9 at Arizona and 19-3 at home to the Patriots, part of their 23 straight possessions without an offensive TD.  Now they have to take a step up in class here against the Packers, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

The Packers are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Bears with all 10 wins coming by 7 points or more.  Green Bay is 30-12-1 ATS in the last 43 meetings dating back further.  Road favorites off a bye are 76-51-4 (60%) ATS since 2004.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +4

The New York Jets continue to take money week after week and it makes no sense.  The Jets are now 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone win coming against a hobbled Houston Texans team.  The losses are the most concerning.

The Jets lost last week 31-6 at Arizona despite going off as 2-point favorites.  They lost 25-22 at New England as 7-point favorites.  They lost 37-15 at Pittsburgh as 2.5-point favorites the game prior.  They have gotten worse since firing head coach Robert Saleh, especially defensively.  Giving up 37 points to Pittsburgh and 25 to New England is bad, and they allowed 31 points and 406 total yards to Arizona last week.  Most of that was done in the first three quarters at it was 31-6 Arizona with 4:13 left in the 3rd and it remained that way only after the Cardinals called off the dogs.

This New York offense is broken, too.  The Jets managed just 207 total yards on a suspect Arizona defense last week despite trailing from the jump and being in catch up mode the entire time.  Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons, but the problem is the banged up offensive line that cannot protect him.  The Jets are missing four offensive linemen and three more are banged up and possibly will try to play through injury.  What a mess.

While the Jets are all but eliminated from playoff contention at 3-7, the Colts sit at 4-6 and still very much alive as that one game difference is huge in the AFC.  They have new life going back to Anthony Richardson at QB this week after Joe Flacco clearly was not the answer.  I think having the last two weeks off will do Richardson a lot of good and allow him to correct mistakes.

The Colts are a much healthier team than the Jets.  They get WR Michael Pittman back this week and are fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Bernhard Raimann.  They are also fully healthy on defense for basically the first time this season with only LB EJ Speed questionable.

After losses by 8 at Minnesota and by 10 at home to Buffalo this week, the Colts will be happy to take a big step down in class this week against the Jets.  That was a misleading final against the Bills, who scored a defensive TD and only outgained the Colts by 44 yards.  They benefited from four Indianapolis turnovers.

Look for the Colts to go run-heavy here with the read-option with dual-threat Richardson to take advantage of a very bad New York run defense.  The Jets have allowed 147 or more rushing yards in four of their last five games.  They really missed MLB CJ Mosely, the leader of their defense who remains out.  Their defense hasn't been the same since losing him.  Look for a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor and Richardson on the ground as the Colts keep this game close for four quarters and likely pull off the upset.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* San Diego State/UNLV MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 54

The OVER is 4-2 since UNLV QB Hajj-Malik Williams took over six games ago.  It was a blessing in disguise that their starting QB decided to opt out and hit the portal.  Their offense has taken off ever since.  Williams is completing 64% of his passes for 1,192 yards and a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 617 yards and 6 TD on 6.2 per carry.  He has been absolutely dynamic both as a passer and a runner.

The Rebels have averaged 39.3 points per game in their last six games with Williams running the show.  That includes 41.3 points per game in their three home games against Boise State, Syracuse and Fresno State.  With the Rebels still feeling like they have a chance to make the 12-team playoff, their feel like they need style points and won't be afraid to run it up.  I think they can top 40 points on San Diego State in this one.

The Aztecs rank 88th in scoring defense at 26.9 points per game and 102nd in total defense at 405.4 yards per game.  They played a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses all season until recently, when they allowed 56 points and 541 total yards at Boise State two games ago.

San Diego State ranks 16th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.5 seconds.  UNLV ranks 60th in tempo.  This game will see a lot of possessions which means more chances for points.  And I think this total is being set too low tonight due to San Diego State's performance in their last game.

San Diego State lost 21-16 at home to New Mexico last game with a total of 65 set for that game.  New Mexico had 475 total yards and should have scored more.  But both teams kept bogging down in the red zone and San Diego State kicked FG's of 22, 28 and 31 yards.  It was also some of the worst field conditions I've seen in all of college football this season.  Players were slipping everywhere, and it's a reminder not to play overs in SDSU home games moving forward.

This game will be played on a fast track in the dome inside Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.  The last five UNLV games played inside Allegiant Stadium have averaged 76.4 combined points.  UNLV is capable of covering this total on their own, but I expect San Diego State to get in the 20's to help.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Kansas/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Kansas +3

Kansas is one of the best 3-6 teams in the history of college football.  BYU is one of the worst 9-0 teams in the history of college football.  There's a reason this line is only 3 with those records, and I fully expect the Jayhawks to win this game outright.

Kansas is 0-5 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.  The other was a misleading 11-point loss to TCU.  The Jayhawks have had two bye weeks in the last month and are fresh and showing what they are capable of now.

Kansas is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games with the lone loss coming 29-27 as 9.5-point underdogs at Kansas State in a game they deserved to win.  They returned from their first bye with a 42-14 dismantling of Houston as 5-point home favorites.  They came back from their 2nd bye and upset Iowa State 45-36 as 2-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium.

This Kansas offense has taken off behind QB Jaylon Daniels and RB Devin Neal.  They put up 42 points and 467 total yards on a very good Houston defense.  They put up 27 points and 401 total yards on a very good Kansas State defense.  And most impressive yet was last week when they put up 45 points and 532 total yards against arguably the best defense in the Big 12 in Iowa State.

BYU has a worse defense than all three of those teams, so I fully expect the Jayhawks to hang a big number on them.  And while the Jayhawks have been very unlucky in close games, the Cougars are winning all of theirs.  BYU is 4-0 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.

The Cougars are coming off a massive 22-21 win at the buzzer at Utah in the Holy War last week.  They got bailed out by the refs on their final drive on a 4th-and-10 sack that turned into a phantom holding penalty on Utah.  BYU took advantage and drove the length of the field, setting up the game-winning 44-yard field goal.

Now BYU has a 2-game lead over 3rd place in the Big 12, which means they can afford a loss and still make the Big 12 Championship Game.  I think having that in the back of their minds and feeling 'fat and happy' off a win over their big brothers last week sets them up for a prime letdown spot this week.  Couple that with all the pressure of trying to make the 12-team playoff and there is a lot this team is dealing with emotionally.

Kansas is in a great state of mind knowing it needs to run the table to make a bowl game.  The Jayhawks are 'all in' and out to prove they are much better than their record would indicate.  They started last week by upsetting Iowa State, and now they are licking their chops at the opportunity to knock BYU from the unbeaten ranks.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +11

The Sacramento Kings are in one of the worst spots I've seen this season, and given the spot, they should not be double-digit favorites over the Utah Jazz tonight.  This line is way off in my opinion.

Sacramento is coming off a 130-126 (OT) loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last night.  De'Aaron Fox played 44 minutes and scored 60 points and it still wasn't enough.  Keegan Murray played 45, Trey Lyles 41 and Sabonis 39 minutes.

These guys had to play such big minutes because the Kings are without DeMar DeRozan and arguably the league's best 6th man in Malik Monk right now.  That's going to make this back-to-back spot even more difficult on the Kings considering they are so short-handed right now.

Not only is it the 2nd of a back-to-back off an OT game, but the Kings will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days and their 10th game in 16 days.  Mercy.  The Jazz are 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last three games and playing much better since getting healthy. 

They upset the Mavs as 8-point home dogs, the Spurs as 6.5-point road dogs and the Bulls as 7.5-point road dogs.  They also only lost to the Suns by 8 at home during this stretch.  Utah will be playing just its 3rd game in 7 days and is the much fresher team to say the least.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on UC-Irvine -16

UC-Irvine is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Anteaters went 24-10 (17-3 Big West) last season and return four starters from that team that all averaged at least 9.0 points per game.

The Anteaters are 3-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in lined games this season absolutely crushing the two spreads.  They beat Chapman 82-52 in their opener, then followed it up with a 66-51 win at Loyola-Marymount as 1.5-point favorites and a 80-60 win at Northern Iowa as 3.5-point dogs, covering the spread by a combined 37 points in those two games.

Now the Anteaters take a big step down in class here against a rebuilding Pepperdine team.  The Waves went 13-20 last season and now have a first-year head coach in Ed Schilling.  They lose all five starters from last season including three elite scorers in Ajayi (17.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG), Mallette (15.8 PPG) and Porter (16.2 PPG.  Schilling must replace 11 players who accounted for 2,294 of the 2,403 points Pepperdine scores last year.

After a 77-64 win over Western Illinois, the Waves got blasted 94-76 as 8.5-point dogs at UC-San Diego.  That is another team from the Big West, but UC-San Diego isn't on UC-Irvine's level.  Bet UC-Irvine Saturday.

15* Oregon/Wisconsin NBC ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +14

The Wisconsin Badgers have a huge rest advantage over Oregon that I don't think is being factored into this line enough.  That's one of the main reasons why I'm willing to back the Badgers catching two touchdowns at home in what will be a great, hostile atmosphere with the No. 1 team in the country coming to Madison for a 7:30 EST kick.

Wisconsin had a bye last week to regroup.  The Badgers had played six consecutive weeks and needed the bye.  In their 5th game they gave Penn State all they could handle at home in a 14-13 game in the 4th quarter that included a 19-yard INT return by Penn State in a game the Badgers should have been leading.  It snowballed from there as Penn State outscored them 14-0 in the 4th in a 28-13 final.

I think the Badgers let that loss beat them twice the next week when they went into Iowa City and lost 42-10 in a night game at Kinnick Stadium.  But that result is providing us extra line value on Wisconsin this week.  The Badgers have had two weeks to get healthy and focused on stopping Oregon.  I think we see one of their best efforts of the season Saturday night, and it will be good enough to stay within this inflated number.

With the No. 1 ranked in the country comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are hard to live up to.  I took Maryland +25 as my 25* Big Ten Game of the Year at Oregon last week largely due to that reason.  Like Wisconsin, Maryland was coming off a bye and gave an 'all in' effort.  This was an 11-point game in the 4th quarter before Oregon tacked on a FG and a TD after a Maryland turnover in the final six minutes to turn it into a 39-18 misleading final.  Oregon only outgained Maryland by 74 yards.

I also faded Oregon last week because they were a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week and coming off a hard-fought win at Michigan.  Now they will be playing for an 8th consecutive week!.  There has been a ton of travel involved especially of late as they have alternated home/road games.  They played Ohio State at home, then Purdue on the road, Illinois at home, then Michigan on the road, Maryland at home and now they have to fly back to the midwest to face Wisconsin.

Because of this tough travel schedule, the Ducks may be the single-most tired team in the country.  They also can afford a loss and still make the Big Ten Championship Game, so they aren't exactly 'all in' right now.  They would be able to beat Washington at home and still make the title game in their regular season finale, so knowing they have that to fall back on might not have them quite as motivated for this game.  I love the situation favoring the Badgers this week.  

Oregon also has two key playmakers on offense questionable to play in this game.  RB Jordan James (946 yards, 10 TD, 5.7/carry) only got one carry in the 2H against Maryland, and WR Tez Johnson (64 receptions, 649 yards, 8 TD) is nursing a shoulder injury.  He missed the Maryland game and may not be back in time for this one.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +14

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Ken Niomatalolo is doing great things here for the Spartans in his first season on the job.  The Spartans are 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS this season with their losses coming by 2 to Washington State, which is 8-1 this season and by 7 to Colorado State, which is expected to make the Mountain West Championship.

They also had a misleading 33-10 loss to Fresno State two games ago that has them undervalued still.  They were only outgained by 16 yards by Fresno State.  They had a bye week after that loss, and they responded with a 24-13 win at Oregon State as 3-point underdogs last week.  Now they have their sights set on upsetting Boise State at home this week.

This San Jose State offense is legit.  They average 6.5 yards per play which ranks 27th in the country.  Their passing offense ranks 5th at 332.3 yards per game, and Boise State can be thrown on.  They have one of the best receivers in the country in Nick Nash, who has 86 receptions for 1,156 yards and 13 TD.

Boise State is starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the 12-team playoff.  The Broncos were fortunate to escape with a 28-21 home win over Nevada as 22.5-point favorites last week.  San Jose State is better than Nevada, so getting 14 points with them at home here is a nice value.

I like the matchup for the Spartans.  To be able to compete with Boise State you have to be able to stop Ashton Jeanty and their rushing attack.  Well, San Jose State ranks 36th in the country allowing just 3.7 yards per carry.

San Jose State is a pass-heavy offense and the weakness of Boise State is their pass defense.  The Broncos rank 110th in the country allowing 247.1 passing yards per game and 104th allowing 7.8 yards per attempt.  The Spartans will never be out of this game with their ability to move the football through the air.  

The Broncos haven't been that impressive on the road this season.  They were in dog fights with UNLV and Georgia Southern and their lone road win by more than 11 points came by 21 at Hawaii, which was a 6-point game in the 4th quarter and a misleading final.  The Spartans are live underdogs this week.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on South Alabama/Louisiana OVER 58

Louisiana is quietly sitting at 8-1 this season with their lone loss to Tulane by 8.  The Rajin' Cajuns still feel like they are alive for the 12-team playoff, and they think they need style points from here on out.  They will look to run up the score if they can, which is a big reason why I am backing the OVER 58 in this game Saturday night against South Alabama.

Louisiana is riding an offense that ranks 25th in the country in scoring at 35.2 points per game, 12th in total offense at 457.1 yards per game and 5th at 7.0 yards per play.  They ran it up last week on Arkansas State in a 55-19 blowout that saw 74 combined points.  They have gone for at least 58 combined points in five of their last seven games now.

The Rajin' Cajuns should be able to name their number against a South Alabama defense that ranks 97th in total defense at 394.4 yards per game and 95th at 6.0 yards per play allowed.  The Jaguars are coming off a pair of shootouts in a 34-30 loss to Georgia Southern and 64 combined points and a 46-17 win over ULM and 63 combined points.

This South Alabama offense has been humming when QB Gio Lopez has been healthy.  Lopez is one of the better dual-threat QB's in the country.  He is completing 65.4% of his passes for 1,891 yards with a 14-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 393 yards and 4 scores with 6.3 per carry.  He leads a South Alabama offene that ranks 21st in scoring at 35.6 points per game, 11th in total offense at 456.9 yards per game and 14th at 6.8 yards per play.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.  I can see these teams trading scores with this being one of the most entertaining games of the weekend featuring two of the best offenses in the country that not too many people know about.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri/South Carolina UNDER 44.5

Missouri's offense has hit the skids without QB Brady Cook.  They have one of the worst backup QB situations in the country with Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne now starting in his place.  Let's just look at how poor this Missouri offense has been the last three weeks since Cook got injury against Auburn.

Missouri needed a 17-6 comeback in the 4th quarter to beat Auburn 21-17 for 38 combined points.  The Tigers were then shut out 34-0 at Alabama for 34 combined points.  And last week they managed to beat Oklahoma 30-23 in a game that was sitting at 10-9 entering the 4th quarter before all hell broke loose.

Oklahoma got a defensive TD with 2:00 left, Missouri scored a TD with 1:03 left, and Missouri scored the game-winning defensive TD on a 17-yard fumble recovery with 30 seconds left.  That misleading final is adding to the line value this week to back the UNDER.  Missouri only had 278 total yard and Oklahoma only had 257 total yards in that game.

Now Pyne and this hobbled Missouri offense must face a South Carolina defense playing about as well as any defense in the country this season.  The Gamecocks rank 12th in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game, 13th in total defense at 299.9 yards per game and 7th at 4.5 yards per play.  They stymied Diego Pavia which nobody else has been able to do this season.  They won that game 28-7 over Vanderbilt for 35 combined points.

South Carolina's offense leaves a lot to be desired, and Missouri can rely on its defense to at least be competitive for a while.  The Tigers rank 15th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game and 11th in total defense at 294.9 yards per game.  I expect Missouri to try and slow this game to a crawl by snapping the ball as late as they can in the play clock because shortening the game is about the only chance they have to win it with Pyne at QB.  Pyne is averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt on his 82 pass attempts this season.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings as these teams always seem to play in low-scoring games.  Given Missouri's circumstances offensively right now, I think that trend continues in this one.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -2.5

The Baylor buy signs are high right now.  I've been riding this team in their last few games and will continue to ride them this week. The Bears are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  Their offense is unstoppable right now averaging 44.7 points per game and 564 yards per game in their three consecutive wins and covers.

Now Baylor is off a bye week and will come back with another big effort against West Virginia this week.  And while I'm high on Baylor right now, I'm equally low on West Virginia. I think this is a great time to 'sell high' on the Mountaineers.  

They are coming off two consecutive upset wins over Arizona and Cincinnati, which are two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in my opinion.  They beat Arizona by 5, which isn't impressive when you consider Arizona has lost five consecutive games now and is decimated by injuries.  The Wildcats' other three losses in their last four games came by 22 points or more.

West Virginia beat Cincinnati 31-24 on the road last week, but that was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  West Virginia had two defensive touchdowns and their offense only scored 17 points with 248 total yards.  Their defense gave up 436 yards to Cincinnati, getting outgained by nearly 200 yards.

Injuries are piling up for the Mountaineers with QB Garrett Greene questionable with a concussion, and their 2nd-leading receiver likely to miss this game with a hamstring injury. Even if they had both guys healthy I'd still like Baylor in this spot, so getting -2.5 is a discount.  If Greene is ruled out this line will balloon in Baylor's favor.

The Bears will be revenge-minded too after losing by exactly 3 points to West Virginia in each of their last two meetings.  The Bears are the better, healthier team this season and they are rested and ready to go off a bye.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* Louisville/Stanford ACC No-Brainer on OVER 57.5

Louisville is a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 6-3 OVER in all games this season with 50 or more combined points in all nine games, including 58 or more combined points five times.  They have scored at least 24 points in every game this season despite the brutal schedule and rank 21st in scoring offense at 36.2 points per game, 18th in total offense at 449.6 yards per game and 9th at 6.9 yards per play.

The Cardinals will be able to name their number against a Stanford defense that ranks 122nd in scoring at 34.6 points per game, 110th at 412.9 yards per game and 122nd at 6.5 yards per play.  With Louisville ranked 19th in the playoff rankings this week, they still feel like they have a chance to make it.  They will feel like they need style points and won't take their foot off the gas.  It also makes me lean to Louisville -20.5, but I think the OVER is a better way to play it.

Stanford is coming off a 59-28 shootout loss at NC State.  They allowed 547 total yards to the Wolfpack.  They have now allowed at least 31 points in six of their nine games this season.  They gave up 40 to SMU, 49 to Notre Dame and 40 to Clemson.  I think Louisville tops 40 points in this one.

Now it's a question of whether or not Stanford can keep up, and I think they can.  They can at least get 20-plus in this one.  Louisville's defense has allowed at least 19 points in seven consecutive games now.  It's a very mediocre defense by Jeff Brahm standards.  And both teams rank in the top half of the country in tempo.

Stanford's offense has been much better with QB Ashton Daniels healthy, which he is right now.  He is completing 62.8% of his passes this season and is a dual-threat, rushing for 481 yards and a pair of scores while averaging 5.5 per carry.  Mobile QB's have posed a problem for Louisville's defense this season with five different quarterbacks rushing for at least 50 yards, and two topping 100 yards on the ground.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Syracuse/California OVER 56

Syracuse is a dead nuts OVER team led by an offense that ranks 39th in scoring at 31.7 points per game and 25th in total offense at 442.8 yards per game.  The Orange rank 4th the country in passing at 353.8 yards per game and they are the most pass-heavy offense in the country ranking 1st at 48.3 attempts per game.  I like pass-heavy offenses for OVERS because incompletions stop the clock.

This Syracuse defense has taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks.  The Orange allowed 41 points to UNLV, 41 to Pittsburgh, 31 to a Virginia Tech team playing with a backup QB, and 37 to a Boston College team that played with two QB's in four of their last five games.  They have been forced to try and keep up in shootouts in all of those games because their defense has been so poor.

It won't get any easier this week against a Cal offense that has found its stride.  The Golden Bears hung 44 points and 478 total yards on Oregon State two games ago and then 46 points and 500 total yards on Wake Forest last week.  That was an absolute shootout as they gave up 36 points to the Demon Deacons for 82 combined points.  Keep in mind they were in a 39-38 shootout with Miami earlier this season for 77 combined points as well.

Both teams play faster than average as California ranks 43rd in tempo while Syracuse ranks 48th, so there will be more possessions than average in this game.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hawaii/Utah State OVER 60

Utah State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Aggies rank 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.4 seconds and they have the worst defense in all of college football.  That combination has led them to going 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 59 or more combined points in six of those seven games, and 74 or more in five of them.  The two opponents they faced that didn't see 74 combined points were Wyoming and Utah, who have atrocious offenses.

Utah State ranks 133rd in scoring defense at 42.3 points per game, 132nd in total defense at 496.2 yards per game and 130th at 6.8 yards per play.  Hawaii has played a tough schedule of opposing defenses and will be happy to get a reprieve here.  The Warriors should have their best offensive performance of the season Saturday.

Hawaii went toe-to-toe with a very good UNLV offense last week in windy conditions at home and lost 29-27.  They have a gutsy QB in Brayden Schager, who is quietly having one of the best seasons of any MWC quarterback.  He has thrown for 2,467 yards with a 19-to-10 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 268 yards and 6 scores on the ground.  He is in line for his best game of the season against Utah State.

Hawaii also likes to play pretty fast ranking 45th in tempo at 25.2 seconds between snaps.  This total of 60 is actually pretty low for a game involving Utah State when you consider the Aggies have played four of their last five games with totals of 67 or higher.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 75, 82 and 73 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on FIU/Jacksonville State OVER 58.5

Jacksonville State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Gamecocks rank 7th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.8 seconds in Rich Rodriquez's up-tempo read-option scheme.  The OVER is 6-3 in all Jacksonville State games this season with 62 or more combined points in six of them.

This Jacksonville State offense is humming right now.  The Gamecocks rank 8th in the country in scoring offense at 39.2 points per game.  They have scored at least 42 points in five of their last six games overall.  This Jacksonville State defense leaves a lot to be desired, ranking 100th in scoring defense at 29.2 points per game and 102nd in total defense at 407.7 yards per game.

Jacksonville State played in a 44-37 (OT) shootout with LA Tech last week that saw 74 combined points at the end of regulation.  That's a very bad LA Tech offense they just allowed 37 points and 410 total yards to last week.  I think Florida International can find similar success against this Gamecocks defense.

I was impressed with this FIU offense in putting up 34 points against New Mexico State two weeks ago.  They also put up 438 total yards and have had a bye to put in some new wrinkles on offense.  QB Keyonte Jenkins threw for 338 yards and 4 TD in the win, and he has an absolute stud outside in Eric Rivers, who caught 11 balls for 295 yards and three scores in the win.  He now has 43 receptions for 876 yards and 8 TD on the season.  Jenkins is completing 61.5% of his passes with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.0 per attempt.

Florida International has faced a very weak schedule of opposing offenses this season and hasn't faced an offense as good as Jacksonville State since giving up 31 to Indiana in the season opener.  They also gave up 38 to FIU, 45 to Monmouth, 31 to Liberty and 30 to UTEP.  I expect Jacksonville State to get into the 40's and FIU to get at least 28 in this one.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Houston/Arizona FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +1.5

First-year head coach Willie Fritz has the Houston Cougars playing their best football of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with three outright upsets over TCU 30-19 as 16-point road dogs, Utah 17-14 as 5-point home dogs and Kansas State 24-19 as 13-point home dogs.

The Cougars got a much-needed bye last week.  First-year head coaches benefit the most from bye weeks, and Fritz will have his team ready to pursue a bowl game coming out of the bye.  The Cougars sit at 4-5 on the season needing two more wins to get bowl eligible, so they will be looking at this line a must-win.

Houston has one of the best defenses in the country.  They rank 43rd in scoring defense at 22.0 points per game and 25th in total defense at 318.9 yards per game despite playing the 10th-toughest schedule in the country to this point.  They are also 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in games started and finished by QB Zeon Chriss as he led the upsets of TCU, Utah and K-State.  Chriss gives them a dual-threat rushing for 294 yards and 2 TD.  He is also completing 69.1% of his passes with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio.

While the Cougars are on the rise under Fritz, the Arizona Wildcats are falling flat on their faces under first-year head coach Brent Brennan.  QB Noah Fifita is struggling mightily in the new system.  He has a 13-to-10 TD/INT ratio and fumble problems as well.  He is playing in front of a banged-up offensive line to boot.

But the biggest problem for the Wildcats is defense, where they have been without eight of 11 starters at different points of the season and most are season-ending injuries.  Arizona ranks 108th in scoring defense at 31.1 points per game, 94th in total defense at 393 yards per game and 98th at 6.0 yards per play allowed.

Arizona is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  It started with a 28-22 home loss to Texas Tech as 5.5-point favorites.  The Wildcats followed it up with a 41-19 loss at BYU as 2.5-point dogs.  They were then blasted 34-7 as 2.5-point home favorites to Colorado.  They lost 31-26 as 5.5-point home favorites against a West Virginia team playing a backup QB two games ago.

But perhaps the most alarming result was the 56-12 loss at UCF as 6-point dogs last time out.  They were playing a UCF team starting a 3rd-string QB and still allowed 56 points and 602 total yards.  That effort just goes to show how rough a shape this defense is in right now.  UCF rushed for 308 yards and passes for 294 more.  

Houston wants to run the football and will be able to do so against this Arizona defense.  This will be one of the softest defenses the Cougars have gotten to face all season, and they were in line for one of their best offensive outputs of the year as a result.  I trust the Cougars to get the necessary stops as this Houston defense will be the best Arizona has seen since being held to a combined 30 points in two games against K-State and Utah.  Bet Houston Friday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves ML -120

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be highly motivated for a victory coming coming off three consecutive SU losses.  They are fully healthy tonight, and I expect them to respond in a big way with a road win at Sacramento.

The Kings just lost DeMar DeRozan (22.9 PPG) to injury with a back injury in their last game and he is doubtful tonight.  They are also without arguably the best 6th man in the entire NBA in Malik Monk (12.6 PPG).  I don't give them much of a chance of being competitive tonight without these two.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is actually 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Minnesota has won outright in four straight trips to Sacramento, including a 117-115 win on October 24th earlier this season.  DeRozan had 26 points and Monk 17 in that game.  That's a lot of production they will be missing.  Bet the Timberwolves on the Money Line Friday.

15* UCLA/Washington FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +3.5

For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point.  The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so important that they got a bye three weeks ago to recover.

UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon, Minnesota and Iowa at home as well as LSU, Penn State, Rutgers and Nebraska on the road.  The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.  They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye.

The Bruins came out of their bye refreshed two weeks ago and it showed, upsetting Nebraska 27-20 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that result as the Bruins outgained the Huskes 6.5 to 4.5 yards per play in the game.  Then last week they upset Iowa 20-17 as 6.5-point dogs.  This was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bruins outgained the Hawkeyes 414 to 265, or by 149 total yards.  But they threw two INT inside the Iowa 5-yard line to keep them in it.

Keep in mind that's the same Iowa team that Washington lost 40-16 to on the road.  That was the start of the downward spiral for the Huskies, who are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They also lost 31-17 at Indiana and their backup QB, and lost 35-6 at Penn State as 13-point dogs.  Even their lone win during this stretch was fluky beating USC 26-21 at home despite getting outgained 459 to 375 by the Trojans.

UCLA played last Friday and had a bye three weeks ago and has the rest advantage here because of it.  Washington has to travel all the way back home from Penn State on the East Coast after getting blasted 35-6 by the Nittany Lions on Saturday.  This was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as Penn State outgained Washington 486 to 193, or by nearly 300 total yards.  Keep in mind UCLA only lost 27-11 at Penn State while only getting outgained 322 to 260, or by 62 total yards.

Washington didn't get home until 5 AM Sunday morning.  The Huskies will still be fatigued and won't have much time to prepare for UCLA on this short week.  The Bruins sit at 4-5 and motivated to get to a bowl game, so they won't have a letdown here.  I think UCLA is the better team at this point, so getting 3.5 points with them even factoring in home-field advantage for Washington is too much.  This line should be closer to PK or the Bruins favored.  Bet UCLA Friday.

20* Wyoming/Colorado State MWC No-Brainer on Wyoming +10

It's time to 'buy low' on the Wyoming Cowboys.  They are just 2-7 SU this season, but they have a first-year head coach and will keep fighting.  They proved that last time out in a 49-45 win at 9-point road underdogs at New Mexico.  They have since had a bye week and bye weeks are most beneficial for first-year head coaches.

QB Kaden Anderson made his first career start at QB against New Mexico, and star RB Harrison Waylee saw his first action of the season in that win over New Mexico.  Anderson finished 20-of-29 passing for 342 yards and three touchdowns, while Waylee gained 170 rushing yards on 27 carries.  Jaylen Sargent had 186 receiving yards and a score.

Having Anderson at QB and Waylee back at RB isn't being factored into this line enough.  The Cowboys are a completely different team right now than they were up to this point.  They have also quietly gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games with their three SU losses coming by 10, 2 and 3 points during this stretch, and the betting public still wants nothing to do with this team due to their poor SU record.

We'll 'sell high' on the Colorado State Rams.  The Rams have gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and are starting to get a lot of respect here as a double-digit favorite.  They have several misleading finals here recently that are providing us with some line value to bet against them.

Two games ago they beat New Mexico 17-6 despite allowing 453 total yards to the Lobos and getting outgained by 119 yards.  That was a minor miracle.  Last time out they beat Nevada 38-21 despite allowing 441 total yards and getting outgained by 114 yards.  They are getting away with murder with these wins and these box scores, and I think it comes to an end this week.

Colorado State will feel the pressure of knowing that if they win out they are in the MWC Championship Game.  They also had a bye last week, which I don't think is good for the Rams, who had a ton of momentum and didn't need a bye.  I don't think it will have been a productive bye week for them as they are feeling 'fat and happy' for two weeks.

Colorado State is averaging 365.1 yards per game on offense and allowing 408.2 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by 43.1 yards per game.  This just isn't a very good Rams team, and the Cowboys are live underdogs tonight.  The Cowboys are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Wyoming Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +11

The Chicago Bulls are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS since getting their best player in Zach LaVine back from injury.  They are now as healthy as any team in the NBA and it's starting to show.

The Bulls upset the Hawks 125-113 as 2.5-point road dogs and upset the Knicks 124-123 as 8.5-point road dogs.  Their lone loss came 119-113 as 8-point home dogs to Cleveland, and now they get a shot at quick revenge on the Cavaliers but are catching 11 points in the rematch.  This number is too high.

Cleveland is 13-0 SU this season, and with that perfect record comes expectations from the oddsmakers and the betting public that are tough to live up to.  We've seen that play out as the Cavaliers are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall escaping with close wins over the Nets by 5, the Bulls by 6 and the 76ers by 8.  If they win tonight, it won't be by more than 11 points.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Atlanta Hawks have no business being 9.5-point favorites against anyone.  They are 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS this season with two of those losses coming to tonight's opponent in the Washington Wizards.  They lost 121-119 as 7.5-point home favorites to the Wizards on October 30th and 133-120 as 5.5-point road favorites to the Wizards on October 30th.

No question the Hawks will be out for revenge, but asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Wizards just got one of their best players in Kyle Kuzma back from injury and have been more competitive with him in the lineup.  Kuzma had 25 points in that first meeting with the Hawks and didn't play in the 2nd, but the Wizards had seven different players score in double figures to make up for it.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* Lakers/Spurs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +3.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have huge home/road splits this season.  They are 6-0 SU at home but just 1-4 SU on the road with their lone win coming by 6 at hapless Toronto.  They lost by 4 at Phoenix, by 24 at Cleveland, by 12 at Detroit and by 17 at Memphis.

The Spurs also have big home/road splits this season.  The Spurs are 5-2 SU at home but just 1-4 SU on the road.  They are 4-1 SU in their last five home games with their lone loss coming by a single point.  They won by 9 over Washington, by 20 over Sacramento, by 13 over Portland and by 10 over Minnesota.

The Spurs are 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Lakers.  They have the answer for Anthony Davis that most teams don't in Wembenyama, who went for 50 points last game.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Penn State -7

Penn State will be one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten this season.  They went 16-17 (9-11 Big Ten) in Mike Rhoades' first season on the job last season.  Rhoades brings back three starters from that team and added help on the wing and up front.

The Nittany Lions are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS this season beating Binghamton 108-66 as 20.5-point favorites, UMBC 103-54 as 22.5-point favorites and St. Francis PA 92-62 as 31.5-point favorites.  Returning starters Hicks (14.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG), Baldwin (12.7 PPG, 6.0 APG) and Kern (7.3 PPG) have made a big impact.  Returning role players Dunn (12.7 PPG) and Johnson (11.3 PPG) have stepped up their games.  And NIU transfer Niederhauser (15.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG) has been the most impressive of the bunch.

Virginia Tech is in rough shape in Mike Young's 6th season on the job.  The Hokies lost all five starters from last year and return only four scholarship players.  Virginia Tech is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS and has been far less impressive than Penn State.  They won 83-60 over Delaware State as 18-point favorites, won 93-74 over USC Upstate as 24-point favorites and won 58-52 over Winthrop as 9-point favorites.

I'll gladly side with this veteran Nittany Lions team that has dominated the competition with three wins by 30 points or more over this inexperienced Hokies team whose three wins have all come by 23 points or fewer.  Bet Penn State Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Miami Heat +5

The Miami Heat are undervalued right now because they are without Jimmy Butler.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA and they can afford to be without him, especially with one of the best head coaches in the league in Eric Spoelstra guiding them.

Miami will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four of its last five games.  But three of those losses came by 1, 2 and 3 points so it's not like they haven't been competitive without Butler.  Getting 5 points with the Heat tonight is too much.

That's especially the case when you could argue the Pacers are dealing with more injuries than the Heat right now.  Indiana is without key scorers Nembhard and Nesmith, and they are lacking depth down low without both Wiseman and Jackson.

Miami has lost just once in its last nine meetings with Indiana by more than 3 points.  That makes for an 8-1 system backing the Heat pertaining to this 5-point spread.  Bet the Heat Friday.

20* Mavs/Jazz NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 231.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when fully healthy with Markkanen, Sexton, Collins, George and Clarkson on the floor at the same time.  They are a very good offensive team with these guys healthy, and they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The Jazz rank 7th in pace and 27th in defensive rating this season.  They are going to be without C Walker Kessler, who is actually one of their better defenders.  They will have to go more small ball with Collins playing the center position, making them even more of an OVER team tonight.

The Mavericks are playing faster this season ranking 12th in pace.  They added more shooting with Klay Thompson, but he isn't the defender he once was.  And defense has been optional for them of late going OVER the total in their last two games losing 120-117 at Golden State for 237 combined points and falling 122-120 at Denver for 242 combined points.

The Jazz are coming off 232 combined points with the Suns last time out at home and that's a Suns team that was missing Kevin Durant.  This total of 231.5 has been set too low given the current state of these two teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Commanders/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3

The Philadelphia Eagles got a much-needed bye in Week 5 to get healthy.  They got both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith back out of their bye, and they haven't looked back since.  Nobody is playing better than the Eagles since Week 6.

The Eagles are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0 ATS as well when you dig into the box scores.  They came out of their bye with a 20-16 home win over the Browns, but this was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Browns got a 50-yard blocked FG return TD right before half that turned a 13-3 game into a 10-10 game.  Philadelphia outgained Cleveland 372 to 244, or by 128 total yards.

The Eagles came back with a dominant 28-3 road win over the New York Giants in their next game.  They outgained the Giants 339 to 119, or by 220 total yards.  Their 37-17 dismantling of Cincinnati on the road might have been the most impressive of the bunch.  They outgained the Bengals 397 to 270, or by 137 total yards.  Holding Joe Burrow down like that is no fluke.

I was on the Eagles -7 in their 28-23 win over the Jaguars two weeks ago.  It was probably my worst beat of the season.  The Eagles led 22-0 and were cruising until a fluke fumble by Saquan Barkley that was caused by the ground was returned for a TD.  The Jaguars got in the back door despite the Eagles outgaining them 447 to 215, or by 232 total yards.  Last week the Eagles made easy work of the Cowboys winning 34-6 on the road and outgaining them 348 to 146, or by 202 total yards.

The offense features arguably the best playmakers in the entire NFL in QB Hurts, RB Barkley, WR Brown and WR Smith.  They recently got TE Dallas Goedert back from injury and are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now on both sides of the football.  But the improvement from the defense under first-year coordinator Vic Fangio is why I'm so high on this team.

The Eagles are allowing just 198.8 yards per game in their last five games, which is unheard of in today's NFL.  The defense has allowed a total of three touchdowns in those five games.  The offense is averaging 380.6 yards per game during this same stretch, so they are outgaining opponents by 182 yards per game.

While the Eagles are fresh having already had their bye week plus blowing out the Cowboys on Sunday putting in little effort, this is a tired Washington Commanders team that hasn't had their bye week yet.  They have played three straight one-score games with their hail mary win against the Bears three weeks ago and their 27-22 win at the Giants two weeks ago, and those performances haven't aged well.  

The Commanders were in a dog fight last week in a 28-27 loss to the Steelers, which was also a very physical game.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Eagles this week.  They have three starting offensive linemen questionable, their starting RB questionable, two starters on D questionable, and K Austin Seibert out. I like this Commanders team and have bet them several times, but this is the spot to fade them as they are tired, on a short week, and with a first-year head coach and a rookie QB.  Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last six meetings with Washington with all five wins by 3 points or more.  Bet the Eagles Thursday.

25* AAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on ECU/Tulsa O 61

This East Carolina offense has taken off in recent weeks to match the fast pace they play with.  The Pirates rank 5th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.8 seconds.  The OVER is 4-0 in ECU's last four games overall with 79, 73, 90 and 63 combined points.  

The switch to Kevin Houser at QB has made a big difference.  After throwing for 269 yards and 5 TD against Temple two games ago, he came back 343 yards and 5 TD against Florida Atlantic last week.  They have scored a total of 105 points in those two games and an average of 52.5 points per game.  But this is a poor ECU defense that has allowed 37 points per game and 440.8 yards per game in their last four games.

East Carolina will be able to name its number against this soft Tulsa defense.  The Golden Hurricane rank 130th in scoring defense at 38.4 points per game, 125th in total defense at 449.4 yards per game and 126th at 6.7 yards per play.

The OVER is 4-1 in Tulsa's last five games overall with 72 or more combined points three times.  It's largely due to the defense, which is allowing 45.0 points per game during this stretch.  They allowed 52 to North Texas, 49 to Army, 45 to UTSA and 59 to UAB.

Utah State transfer Cooper Legas has injected some life into this Tulsa offense as well.  He led the Golden Hurricane to a 46-45 comeback win over UTSA two games ago with 333 passing yards and 5 TD as well as 46 rushing yards on 13 attempts.  Legas went for 230 passing yards and 2 TD in their 59-21 loss to UAB last time out.  They had 423 total yards in that game and probably should have scored more.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 69, 73, 64 and 56 combined points.  With the way these teams are built this season, I expect them to easily combine to top 61 points Thursday night.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Blazers UNDER 221

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Not only will this be the 3rd meeting between the Blazers and Timberwolves already this season, but it will be the 2nd meeting in 2 days after these two just played last night.

Portland upset Minnesota 122-108 last night thanks to some lights out shooting that is not repeatable.  The Blazers shot 51% as a team including 18-of-32 (56%) from 3-point range.  Minnesota shot 51% as a team as well.  They also combined for 39-of-43 (90.1%) from the FT line.   Let's just say those shooting numbers are unlikely to happen again.

That game was played at a very slow pace as these are two of the slower teams in the NBA.  Now Portland lost starting PG Anfernee Simons to injury last night, and they are going to have to rely even more on defense without him moving forward.  This is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA without Simons.  Be the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +10

I'm not sure what world the San Antonio Spurs should be favored by double-digits against any team in the NBA, but it certainly isn't this one.  The Spurs are still one of the worst teams in the NBA, and I'll gladly fade them here laying double-digits to the Washington Wizards.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Wizards, who are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule of Miami, Golden State, Memphis, Orlando and Houston.  They finally get to take a big step down in class tonight against the Spurs.

The Wizards just got Kyle Kuzma back from injury in their last game at Houston and he came through with 18 points in a 15-point loss.  Having Kuzma and Jordan Poole healthy and on the court at the same time moving forward will make the Wizards much more competitive.  This game will go down to the wire tonight.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +8.5

The Brooklyn Nets are 9-2 ATS this season and one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They just lost 108-104 (OT) at Boston as 13.5-point underdogs on November 8th less than a week ago.  Now they are out for revenge here catching 8.5 points in the rematch.

The spot really favors the Nets not only because of the revenge factor, but also because of their rest advantage.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 8 days.

Meanwhile, the Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their 117-116 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks last night.  Tatum played 37 minutes, White 38 and Brown 36 last night.  Both Tatum and Brown were banged up recently and missed time, and I wouldn't be surprised if one or both sit tonight.

Either way, I think the Nets have what it takes to stay within the number against the Celtics for the 2nd time in 6 days.  Boston is grossly overvalued after winning the title last year.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +8.5

The Chicago Bulls got their best player in Zach LaVine back from injury two games ago and have played two of their best games of the season since.  They upset Atlanta 125-113 as 2.5-point road underdogs and nearly handed the Cavaliers their first loss of the season, falling 119-113 as 8-point home dogs.

The Bulls had yesterday off and have a big rest advantage over the Knicks as a result.  The Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in Philadelphia last night.  All five starters played at least 35 minutes for the Knicks last night, and they have one of the worst benches in the NBA so their starters are forced to play big minutes again this season.  They should not be favored by 8.5 points tonight given the tough rest spot.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -14.5

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the New Orleans Pelicans.  They are without three starters in Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum and Zion Williamson.  They are also without three key contributors off the bench in Jordan Hawkins, Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado.

It's no wonder the Pelicans are just 1-8 SU in their last nine games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.  Six of the eight losses came by 15 points or more, so we aren't asking much of the Thunder to cover this 14.5-point spread tonight.  The Pelicans even had some of these players healthy during this stretch, but now they have hit rock bottom in the injury department.

The Thunder did lose Chet Holmgren, but they have one of the deepest benches in the NBA and will be just fine without him in the short-term.  The Thunder are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Pelicans.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* EMU/Ohio MAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 49.5

This has been a crazy week of good weather for these MAC weekday games, which is rare for mid-November.  Temps will be in the 50's with no wind and no chance of precipitation for this start of this game between Eastern Michigan and Ohio Wednesday night.  This looks like a shootout relative to this 49.5-point total, and at the very least the total should be set in the 50's.

Eastern Michigan has gone up-tempo this season ranking 23rd in the country in seconds between snaps.  That move has propelled the Eagles to have one of the most improved offenses in the country.  The Eagles are scoring 29.2 points per game and averaging 392.1 yards per game with a balanced attack that averages 246 passing yards per game and 146 rushing.

Ohio is scoring 26.2 points per game and averaging 383.2 yards per game.  The Bobcats average 6.0 yards per play, which is one of the best numbers in the MAC.  This Ohio offense is humming right now putting up 47 points against Buffalo and 41 against Kent State in their last two games coming in.  QB Parker Navarro is a dual-threat with 556 rushing yards and 6.2 per carry, and Northwestern transfer RB Anthony Tyus is a playmaker with 694 rushing yards in basically just seven games.

The Bobcats should be able to name their number against a soft Eastern Michigan defense that ranks 115th in the country in allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Eagles are allowing 31.8 points per game in conference play despite getting to face Akron, CMU and Kent State.  The OVER is 4-1 in EMU's last five games overall with 52 or more combined points in four of the five.  The OVER is 3-1 in Ohio's last four games with 50 or more combined points in three of the four.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on St. John's -24

In Rick Pitino I trust.  He led the St. John's Red Storm to a 20-13 season in his first year on the job last season and they were snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.  So they have been motivated all offseason, and reinforcements are on the way.

One of the biggest pulls of the portal was bringing Kadary Richmond in from rival Seton Hall.  Utah transfer Deivon Smith (5 triple-doubles last year) and five-star freshman Simeon Wilcher will join Richmond in the backcourt.

RJ Luis (10.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) is the leading returning scorer and will lead them in the frontcourt.  North Texas transfer Aaron Scott is a great two-way player.  They have great size with 7-1 USC transfer Vince Iwuchukwu along with freshmen Khaman Maker (7-1) and Ruben Prey (6-10).

St. John's blasted Fordham 92-60 as 19.5-point favorites in their opener, covering the spread by 12.5 points.  They showed off their depth with nine players scoring at least 5 points.  That's a Fordham team that went on to upset Seton Hall 57-56 as 10.5-point dogs, so that result looks even better now.

The Red Storm actually trailed Quinnipiac 39-35 at halftime last game.  They got a ripping from Pitino at halftime and responded outscoring Quinnipiac 61-34 after intermission, actually covering the 20-point spread to boot in a 96-73 victory.  That comeback effort shows what the Red Storm are capable of when locked in.

I expect the Red Storm to be locked in from the jump tonight against Wagner, which lost 75-52 as 17-point dogs at Rutgers in their opener.  That's a Rutgers team that struggled to put away St. Peter's 75-65 in their next game as 16.5-point favorites, so that result looks even worse now.  Wagner lost three starters who all averaged double-digits scoring last year.  Bet St. John's Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Jazz OVER 225

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 6th in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  They are fully healthy right now so they are a much better offensive team when that's the case.

The Suns won't mind keeping up with the Jazz in a shootout tonight.  The Suns have gone with more pace and more 3-pointers this season under first-year head coach Mike Budenholzer.

The Suns and their opponents have combined for at least 227 points in four straight games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 230 or more combined points in all four meetings, including 244 or more in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Duke/Kentucky ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 160.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team with first-year head coach Mark Pope running the show.  He brings over his pace and space philosophy from BYU, and it is already paying dividends at Kentucky.

The Wildcats rank 25th in adjusted tempo, 20th in average offensive possession length, and 17th in offensive rating.  They went OVER the total in each of their first two games beating Wright State 103-62 for 165 combined points and Bucknell 100-72 for 172 combined points.

Duke is absolutely loaded at the guard position this season and is playing faster than last year because of it.  The Blue Devils rank 3rd in offensive rating this season and 42nd on average length of offensive possessions.  They put up 100 points on Army and 96 points on Maine in their first two games.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on South Dakota +23

This is the rare situation where Iowa and South Dakota have two common opponents already to compare results to.  And after looking at those results, it's clearly there's value on South Dakota +23 at Iowa tonight.

South Dakota beat Southern 93-79 as 2.5-point home favorites and East Texas A&M 91-83 as 10.5-point home favorites.  The Coyotes outscored those two teams by a combined 22 points.

Iowa beat East Texas A&M 89-67 as 30-point home favorites and Southern 89-74 as 26-point home favorites.  The Hawkeyes outscored those two teams by a combined 37 points.

I just don't like Iowa's roster this season, while I like the direction of this South Dakota program entering head coach Eric Peterson's third year on the job.  He brings back three starters and several key reserves.  Two experienced guard transfers in Forte and Bullock join the team this season, as do the Bruns brothers, Paul and Isaac.  All four are making significant contributions already as all four are averaging double-digits scoring.  Bet South Dakota Tuesday.

15* WMU/Bowling Green MAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 58.5

Western Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Broncos are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 56 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  It will be more of the same tonight as they travel to face Bowling Green.

Western Michigan has one of the best offenses in the MAC ranking 30th in the country in scoring offense at 33.3 points per game and 23rd at 6.5 yards per play.  But the Broncos also have one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 123rd in scoring defense at 34.7 points per game, 116th at 427.6 yards per game and 118th at 6.4 yards per play.

Bowling Green has a balanced offense that averages 5.9 yards per play against a brutal schedule that features Penn State and Texas A&M in non-conference.  This BG offense put up 41 points on a solid Toledo defense two games ago.  I fully expect one of their best offensive performances of the season tonight against Western Michigan in what will be a shootout with very few stops.  The forecast looks good with no wind or precipitation, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ball State/Buffalo OVER 53.5

Ball State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Cardinals are 7-1-1 OVER in all games this season.  They have a respectable offense, but their defense is one of the worst in the country.  They rank 132nd in scoring at 38.9 points per game, 129th in total defense at 461.3 yards per game and 134th at 7.2 yards per play.

Buffalo runs an up-tempo offense that ranks 33rd in the country in seconds per play.  The Bulls have scored 30, 41 and 41 points in three of their last four games and should be able to name their number on this Ball State defense.  The Bulls rank 97th in scoring defense allowing 29.0 points per game and 105th in total defense at 408.7 yards per game.  The Cardinals should be able to keep pace.

The OVER is 5-0 in Bulls' last five games overall with 63 or more combined points in each of their last three games.  The forecast looks good for a shootout with no wind or precipitation, which is rare for these midweek MAC games in November.  We'll take advantage.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Dolphins/Rams ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50.5

Having a healthy Tua Tagovailoa on the field makes all the difference for this Miami offense.  That has played out the last two weeks as they put up 27 points and 377 total yards against the Cardinals in his return two weeks ago, and then 27 points and 373 total yards against the Buffalo Bills last week.

Having a healthy Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua makes all the difference for this Rams offense as well.  Kupp and Nacua returned two weeks ago to lead the Rams to a 30-20 win over the Vikings behind 386 total yards.  They also put up 26 points last week on the Seahawks despite Nacua getting ejected in the 1H.  He will be back this week, and all four of these guys are healthy.

Given the current health of both of these offenses, I expect both to have their way with these suspect opposing defenses.  The Dolphins just gave up 28 points to the Cardinals and 30 points to the Bills in their last two games.  The Rams have allowed at least 20 points in eight of their nine games, including 24 or more six times.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Dolphins/Rams ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles ML -130

I've backed the Rams with success in each of their last two games and I'm back on them for many of the same reasons.  Having a healthy Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua makes all the difference for this Rams offense.  Kupp and Nacua returned two weeks ago to lead the Rams to a 30-20 win over the Vikings behind 386 total yards.  They also put up 26 points last week on the Seahawks despite Nacua getting ejected in the 1H.  He will be back this week, and all four of these guys are healthy.

This Los Angeles defense is better than it gets credit for, too.  The Rams have held their last three opponents to an average of 18.3 points per game.  They held the Vikings to just 276 total yards in their last home game which is no small feat considering all of their weapons.  I like the way this Los Angeles defense is trending much more than that of the Dolphins.

Yes, the Dolphins have a much better offense with Tua Tagovailoa back and healthy, but they still managed to lose their last two games.  They lost 28-27 at home to Arizona in his return two weeks ago, and they lost 30-27 at Buffalo last week.  That game against Buffalo was really their 'last stand' in trying to keep their playoff hopes alive.  They now sit at just 2-6 on the season, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

I like the mindset of this Rams team a lot more right now.  They gutted out two huge wins against the Vikings and Seahawks the last two weeks to improve to 4-4 on the season.  They now trail the Cardinals by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the NFC West.  The Cardinals are underdogs to the Jets this week, so they could find themselves in 1st place with a win.  The Rams also have a huge advantage at head coach with Sean McVay over Mike McDaniels.  Bet the Rams on the Money Line Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Bulls OVER 237

The Chicago Bulls have seen a shift in philosophy this season to play faster and shoot more 3's.  The Bulls are taking it to the extreme ranking 1st in the NBA in pace this season.  The Bulls are just 19th in defensive rating, so playing faster has hurt them defensively.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have seen the same shift in philosophy under Kenny Atkinson.  They are playing faster and shooting more 3's.  They rank 9th in pace and 1st in offensive rating.  This has the makings of an extremely high-scoring game tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS this season and the lone remaining unbeaten team in the NBA.  With that perfect record comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very hard to live up to.

The Cavaliers are starting to lack motivation because of their fast start and are starting to feel 'fat and happy.  We have seen that play out in recent games as they have escaped with a couple close wins.  They only beat the Nets by 5 at home as 12.5-point favorites and the Bucks by 2 as 8.5-point home favorites.

The Bulls just got their best player in Zach LaVine back from injury and upset the Hawks 125-113 as 2.5-point road dogs last time out.  The Bulls are now fully healthy with the exception of Lonzo Ball.  They are more than capable of competing with the Cavaliers now.

The Bulls are 2-0 ATS in their last two meetings with the Cavaliers only losing by 3 as 9-point road dogs and upsetting the Cavaliers by 9 as 5.5-point home dogs.  We will 'sell high' on unbeaten Cleveland tonight.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Brooklyn Nets -1.5

The Brooklyn Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They took both the Cavaliers and the Celtics to the wire on the road in their last two games to show their potential.  They lost 108-104 (OT) as 13.5-point dogs at Boston and 105-100 as 12.5-point dogs at Cleveland, and those are arguably the two best teams in the NBA.

Now the Nets get to take on the most injury-ravaged team in the NBA in the New Orleans Pelicans, who are 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall largely due to all these injuries.  They are without three starters right now in Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum and Dejounte Murray.  They are also without two key role players in Herbert Jones and Jordan Hawkins.

With the Pelicans basically the worst team in the NBA right now in their current state given all their injuries, I'll gladly fade them again tonight.  The Nets should be favored by more.  Bet the Nets Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Texans OVER 48

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one of the worst defenses since losing by far their best defender in DE Aidan Hutchinson.  Their defense hasn't totally been exposed yet due to circumstance, but they will get exposed by the Houston Texans tonight and will be forced to try to keep up in a shootout indoors in perfect conditions.

The Lions rank 1st in scoring offense at 32.2 points per game and 4th averaging 6.3 yards per play.  But defensively they rank just 22nd in total defense at 357.1 yards per game allowed and 24th at 5.9 yards per play.  Not only are they without Hutchinson, but they are also without LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Emmanuel Moseley, and they have six defensive linemen on IR.  That's why they traded for DE Za'Darius Smith, and he isn't even sure to play since it came on such short notice.

Three games ago the Lions allowed 383 yards to the Vikings.  Two games ago they allowed 416 total yards to what was a previously dead Tennessee offense.  And last week despite playing in a downpour all game, they allowed 411 total yards to the Packers.  They have been exposed as far as teams moving the football at will on them, it just hasn't exactly shown up on the scoreboard.

I'm 'buying' on this Houston Texans offense this week.  They already have a great running game with Joe Mixon, and now they should get Nico Collins back from injury this week, and he means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense.  He was officially activated to the 53-man roster on Saturday.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  They also got good news on Tank Dell as he is good to go as well.

The Texans will be without their best pass rusher in Will Anderson.  The Texans have allowed at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.  They will also be forced to keep up in a shootout because the Detroit Lions are going to be completely contained.  This is just a very low total for a game involving these two teams in their current state right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Texans +5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Detroit Lions.  They have been covering machines since Jared Goff and Dan Campbell teams up.  But now you are paying a tax to back them this week as they are 5-point road favorites on the opener against the Houston Texans, which I grabbed Sunday night.  I still like them down to the current line of +3.5 as I think the Texans can win this game outright.

While the Lions have a great offense, they have a defense that has been exposed due to all their injuries, it just hasn't exactly shown up on the scoreboard yet.  Detroit ranks just 22nd in total defense at 357.1 yards per game allowed and 24th at 5.9 yards per play.  Not only are they without their most important defender in DE Aidan Hutchinson, but they are also without LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Emmanuel Moseley, and they have six defensive linemen on IR.  That's why they traded for DE Za'Darius Smith, and he isn't even sure to play since it came on such short notice.

Three games ago the Lions allowed 383 yards to the Vikings.  Two games ago they allowed 416 total yards to what was a previously dead Tennessee offense.  And last week despite playing in a downpour all game, they allowed 411 total yards to the Packers.  They have been exposed as far as teams moving the football at will on them, and more times than not teams are going to turn those yards into points.

I'm 'buying' on this Houston Texans offense this week.  They already have a great running game with Joe Mixon, and now they should get Nico Collins back from injury this week, and he means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense.  He was officially activated to the 53-man roster on Saturday.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  They also got good news on Tank Dell as he is good to go as well.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Lions, who sit in 1st place in the NFC North and  1st place in the NFC after a huge 24-14 win at Green Bay last week.  They also beat the Vikings and the Cowboys on the road recently.  They are 'fat and happy' right now and ready to get knocked off their pedestal.  It was a misleading win over the Packers to boot because they were outgained by 150 yards by the Packers.  But the difference in the game was a bad pick-6 by a hobbled Jordan Love when he was trying to avoid a sack in the rain.

The spot is a great one for the Texans.  They are motivated coming off a road loss to the Jets, and that was on Thursday Night Football last week.  So they have had a mini-bye to get healthy and refocused, and they needed to get healthy especially on offense at receivers and along the offensive line.  They should be fully healthy on defense as well with the exception of DE Will Anderson.  I love the spot for them this week.  Bet the Texans Sunday night.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Timberwolves OVER 218

The Miami Heat lost Jimmy Butler to an ankle injury in the 1st quarter of their 135-122 loss at Denver last time out.  The Heat want to be more of a pace and space team this season, and sometimes the ball sticks when Butler is on the floor.  That slows down the tempo of the game.

We really saw it speed up against the Nuggets when he was off the floor for the remainder of the game.  The Heat shot 43 3-pointers in the loss.  They were much worse off defensively without Butler because he is one of the best defenders in the league.  So they are a dead nuts OVER team in their current start, and that will be even more of the case if they get bench player Jamie Jaquez back from injury today.

Minnesota looks much more like an OVER team this season.  The Timberwolves are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 229 or more combined points in four of those six games.  They went for 229 points with the Blazers at home last time out and 254 combined points with the Bulls in their previous game.  Anthony Edwards is going off, and newcomers Julius Randle and Dante DiVincenzo are fitting in nicely.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Warriors/Thunder NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 227

Two elite offensive teams that both like to play fast square off tonight when the Golden State Warriors visit the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder rank 4th in the NBA in pace this season while the Warriors rank 9th.  The Warriors rank 4th in offensive rating as well including 1st in shooting percentage and 4th in scoring.

The OVER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings between the Warriors and Thunder with 234 or more combined points at the end of regulation in all eight meetings.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Commanders OVER 44

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL ranking 3rd in scoring at 29.2 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 392.0 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play.  The Pittsburgh Steelers haven't seen an offense as good as Washington yet.

But the Commanders have a leaky defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in allowing 6.0 yards per play.  They traded for CB Marshon Lattimore, but he isn't going to play this week due to a hamstring injury.  The Steelers should be able to keep pace with the Commanders in a shootout Sunday.

I'm 'buying' on this Pittsburgh offense with Russell Wilson.  The Steelers have gone 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall, the last two the most impressive with Wilson at the helm.  He led them to a 37-15 win over the Jets and 52 combined points and followed it up with a 26-18 win over the Giants and 44 combined points.

The Steelers had 409 total yards against a very good Jets' defense.  Wilson threw for 264 yards and 2 TD while opening things up for Najee Harris, who rushed for 102 yards and a score.  The Steelers had another 426 total yards against the Giants last time out.  Wilson threw for 278 yards and a score and Harris rushed for 114 yards in the win.

Washington and its opponents have combined for at least 47 points in seven of its nine games this season.  This total of 44 is too low for a game involving the Commanders, especially when you consider just how much better this Pittsburgh offense has been with Wilson at QB.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers -6

This is an eerily similar spot to last year when the 49ers had lost three straight games going into their bye week thanks to injuries.  It was one of my biggest plays of the season on the 49ers last year as they were getting healthy coming out of their bye getting Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams all back from injury.  The 49ers delivered with a 34-3 win at Jacksonville as 3-point favorites.

Now the 49ers return from their bye week expected to get back three of their best offensive weapons in McCaffrey, Deebo and JaJuan Jennings.  That's big because they lost WR Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending injury.  Jennings was making a bunch of plays before going down with injury, and CMC is worth about as much to the spread as any RB in the NFL.  Deebo does what he does making plays at receiver and out of the backfield.

The healthy 49ers team is a dangerous one, and they will be as healthy as they have been at any point this season coming out of their bye week.  I believe they can beat anybody in their current state, and I certainly think they'll make easy work of this short-handed Tampa Bay Bucs team that is not only extremely banged up, but also at a big rest disadvantage.

The Bucs will have to try and get back up off the mat on a short week after losing in OT to the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.  They gave it a valiant effort, but came up just short against the defending champs.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and their defense has to be gassed after the Chiefs got the ball first in OT and matriculated the ball down the field for the game-winning score.

The Bucs haven't gotten a bye yet this season and are a tired team with the injuries piling up.  They have an extremely suspect defense that ranks 28th in scoring at 27.0 points per game, 39th in total defense at 386.7 yards per game and 26th at 6.0 yards per play.  The Bucs have allowed an average of 33 points per game in their last five games.

While the Bucs have been short-handed on defense due to injuries for most of the season, the offense is in even worse shape right now injury-wise.  They lost their top two receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans two weeks ago.  Godwin is out for the season and Evans is unlikely to return this week.  No. 3 receiver Jalen McMillan missed the game Monday and is questionable to return.  No. 5 receiver Sterling Shepard is questionable.  They could be without four of their top five receivers, plus QB Baker Mayfield misses practice on Wednesday with a toe injury, though I expect he will go.

With all these injuries, it's no wonder the Bucs are just 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their lone win coming against the short-handed Saints.  It's going to get worse before it gets better until they get some of these key guys back from injury.  I don't give them much of a chance of keeping this game competitive against a healthy, rested and motivated San Francisco team this week.  

The 49ers are 4-4 right now and chasing the Cardinals in a tight NFC West race.  They have no margin for error now.  But despite all their injuries up to this point, the 49ers still have some of the best numbers in the NFL.  They are 2nd in total offense at 412.4 yards per game and 10th in total defense at 314.8 yards per game.  They are nearly outgaining their opponents by 100 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play on the season.  They really should be 6-2 or better right now, but their 4-4 record has them undervalued.  

Road favorites off a bye have been a huge money maker for years in the NFL.  Road favorites off a bye have covered the spread 60.4% of the time since 2004.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS thus far this season, and they will remain perfect courtesy of a San Francisco blowout in this one.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +9

The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-0 this season and the last unbeaten team remaining in the NFL.  With that perfect record comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are tough to live up to.  We have seen that play out in recent weeks as the Chiefs haven't been able to cover these large numbers.

The Chiefs beat a decimated, struggling Raiders team 27-20 on the road as 8.5-point favorites two weeks ago.  Last week they needed OT to beat an even more decimated Bucs team that was missing their top three receivers.  They won 30-24 (OT) as 8.5-point favorites.

Now the Chiefs are on a short week after playing on Monday and a tired team coming off an OT game.  Teams coming off OT games who are playing on 8 or fewer days' rest are 107-140 SU & 108-136-3 ATS over the last decade.  Teams playing on just six days of rest coming off an OT game on MNF are 17-21 SU & 15-23 ATS during this same time frame.

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Denver Broncos coming off a 41-10 blowout loss at Baltimore, which may be the best team in the league.  It was a bit of a misleading loss as the Broncos consistently marched into Baltimore territory but didn't get much out of it.  They were only outgained by 77 yards by the Ravens.

Keep in mind the Broncos had gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their previous six games prior to losing to Baltimore with their lone loss coming by 7 points to the Chargers, who were off a bye week and much healthier.  Four of their five wins during this stretch came by 14 points or more.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face a division rival in Kansas City, who they have played very tough in recent meetings.  The Broncos are 1-4 SU but 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with three of the four losses coming by 6 points or less.

Bo Nix is 4-1 ATS on the road this season.  Sean Payton is 81-59-3 ATS in road/neutral games as a head coach.  Payton is also 56-38-2 ATS as an underdog.  The Chiefs have been terrible as a favorite of -7 or more in the Mahomes era.  They just have a way of playing to the level of their competition, and they aren't going to be all that motivated this week as they are 'fat and happy' at 8-0 right now.  They also have a huge game against the Bills on deck next week that they could be looking ahead to.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3

The Chicago Bulls are in a great spot tonight.  They had yesterday off and there's a good chance they get Zach LaVine back from injury.  The Bulls will be highly motivated for a win off four consecutive losses.

I like their chances of getting a win tonight against a tired, banged up Atlanta Hawks team.  The Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 5th game in 7 days and their 9th game in 14 days.  Trae Young played 41 minutes last night in a 122-121 road loss at Detroit.  James Johnson played 37 and Dyson Daniels 38 minutes.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Bulls tonight.

The Bulls rank 1st in pace this season and will test Atlanta's tired legs.  The Hawks are once again a terrible defensive team this season ranking 25th in defensive rating.  The Bulls should be able to get what they want, and I think the Hawks will be affected most defensively with their fatigue.  Chicago is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Hawks OVER 237.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team again this season.  They rank 3rd in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  Teams that play fast and play no defense always trend to the OVER, and this is a pretty low total for a game involving the Hawks right now.

The OVER is 9-1 in all Atlanta games this season with 232 or more combined points in nine of their 10 games.  It should be more of the same tonight against the Chicago Bulls, who have seen a shift in philosophy this season to play faster and shoot more 3's.

The Bulls are taking it to the extreme ranking 1st in the NBA in pace this season, so these are two of the top three teams in pace.  The Bulls are just 20th in defensive rating.  There is a good chance they get Zach LaVine back from injury tonight, but I like this total either way.  Chicago went for 256 combined points with Minnesota without him last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.