20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +12

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons today.  They will be out for revenge from a 117-128 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday.  Now they get to face them just three days later in a rematch and will be clearly the more motivated team in this one.

I fully expect the Timberwolves to take the Pistons lightly, which is going to make it difficult for them to cover this massive 12-point spread.  Minnesota is getting a lot of love lately due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  It's time to 'sell high' on them.

The Pistons have been quietly a great team to back for weeks.  They are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They just got their best player in Jerami Grant back from injury, and they could have Cade Cunningham back today.  Either way, they have enough to keep this game competitive given the quick revenge spot.

Minnesota is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games when playing against a team that wins 25% or less of their games on the season.  The Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS in home games vs. poor offensive teams that score 108 or fewer points per game this season.  Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Minnesota.  This number has gotten out of hand today.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

20* Mississippi State/Arkansas SEC No-Brainer on Arkansas -5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are one of the hottest teams in the country.  They have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes road wins over LSU by 7, Ole Miss by 9 and Georgia by 26.  They also beat Missouri by 35, South Carolina by 16, Texas A&M by 3 and West Virginia by 9 in their four home games during this stretch to improve to 12-1 at home this season.

Now the Razorbacks have their sights set on revenge from a 68-81 loss at Mississippi State in their first meeting this season.  They face a Bulldogs team that has struggled on the road this season.  Mississippi State is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season with all four losses coming by 8 points or more.  That includes a 26-point loss at Texas Tech in their last road game.

Arkansas is 7-0 ATS in February games over the last two seasons.  The Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two years.  The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Mississippi State is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS win.  The home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with Arkansas Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +4.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the TCU Horned Frogs.  They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They are coming off two straight upset wins over LSU at home and Oklahoma on the road.  They won't be all that motivated to beat Kansas State Saturday.

That's because they already beat Kansas State 60-57 as 3.5-point road dogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are 4.5-point home favorites, which is too big of an adjustment.  The Wildcats will be the more motivated team out for revenge and I expect them to win this game outright.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog.  TCU is 8-20-2 ATS in its last 30 home games.  The Horned Frogs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +9

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Wizards.  They have gone 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Now they are catching 9 points at home against the Phoenix Suns, which is simply too much.

The Wizards flashed their potential last time out winning 106-103 as 10.5-point road underdogs at Philadelphia.  They previously lost road games against the Grizzlies and Bucks, so they have been through the gauntlet.  Now they are back home here after three straight on the road.

This is a terrible spot for the Phoenix Suns.  They just had their 11-game winning streak snapped with a 115-124 road loss at Atlanta as 4-point favorites.  I always like fading teams the game after their winning streak comes to an end because they tend to be flat in this spot.  I think that will be the case for the Suns, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Take the Wizards Saturday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on Wright State +4.5

Wright State and Oakland will both be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  But the spot really favors the Raiders.  They get to stay at home after crushing Detroit 90-59 as 4.5-point favorites, which allowed them to rest their starters in the 2nd half and save up for Oakland.

Meanwhile, Oakland has to travel after a 78-87 (OT) loss at Northern Kentucky.  Going to OT will have taken a lot out of them.  All five starters played at least 38 minutes for them, while their top bench player only recorded 8 minutes.  Three starters played 45 minutes last night.

Wright State is 8-2 SU at home this season and 7-2 SU in its last nine home meetings with Oakland.  The Golden Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Wright State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh +6.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies aren't playing well enough to be 6.5-point road favorites at Pittsburgh Saturday.  They are just 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall with two of those wins coming by 6 points or fewer.  Now they travel to take on a pesky Panthers team that doesn't give in at home.

Indeed, Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six home games with the two losses coming to Notre Dame by 1 and Virginia by 5.  They beat Boston College, upset Louisville and Syracuse, and covered against Jacksonville.

The Hokies are just 2-5 SU in their last seven true road games and one of those was a 3-point win over NC State.  They lost by 5 at Dayton, by 11 at Duke, by 2 at Virginia, by 5 at Boston College and by 10 at North Carolina.

Virginia Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after winning two of its last three games coming in.  The Hokies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as road favorites.  The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.  The home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Duke/North Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina +3

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been a juggernaut at home this season.  They are 12-0 at home and outscoring opponents by 16.1 points per game.  They have won 11 of their 12 home games by double-digits, including 10 straight.  That includes wins over Michigan by 21, Virginia by 16, Georgia Tech by 21, Virginia Tech by 10 and NC State by 20.

Duke is getting too much respect here as a road favorite at North Carolina.  The Blue Devils have only had to play five true road games all season and are 3-2, beating Notre Dame, Louisville and Wake Forest while losing outright as favorites to Ohio State and Florida State.  This will be their toughest road test of the season to date.

North Carolina is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tar Heels are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  North Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Jose State +22

The Boise State Broncos finally had their 14-game winning streak come to an end on Thursday when they lost 65-72 at Wyoming.  They had been sneaking by with six straight wins by single-digits prior to that loss.  Now I think they suffer a hangover here in their first game back since having their streak come to an end.

That's going to make it extremely difficult for the Broncos to cover this 22-point spread when they won't be motivated to do so.  Meanwhile, the San Jose State Spartans are looking at this as their biggest game of the season.  They are more than capable of giving the Broncos a run for their money tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Spartans, who have lost nine straight coming in.  But they have shown they can be competitive against some good teams on the road recently.  They lost by 20 at Fresno State, by 15 at Wyoming, by 8 at UNLV, by 16 at New Mexico and by 16 at Utah State in their last five road games.  

In fact, the Spartans have only lost one of their 10 true road games by more than 20 points all season, and that came at Texas.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the Spartans pertaining to this 22-point spread.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +4.5

Northern Iowa wants revenge from a 74-82 (OT) home loss to Drake on January 22nd just two weeks ago.  The Panthers blew a double-digit lead in the 2nd half of that game and have not forgotten.  They go from being 4-point home favorites to 4.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.

Drake is getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall with two overtime victories.  They upset Loyola-Chicago at home which is a big reason they are getting this respect.  Then they beat a short-handed Indiana State team on the road last time out.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs.

Northern Iowa is 37-19 ATS in its last 56 road games following three straight conference wins.  Drake is 2-8 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  The Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.  Drake is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* 76ers/Mavericks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 212.5

The Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks are two great UNDER teams.  They both play at slow tempos as the Mavericks rank 27th in pace while the 76ers rank 26th.  These are also two of the best defensive teams in the NBA as the Mavericks rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the 76ers are 9th.

Injuries will help us cash this UNDER as well as the Mavericks are without Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr, while Philadelphia is without Frank Korkmaz and could be without Seth Curry, who is questionable.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Mavericks and 76ers with combined scores of 208, 208 and 200 points.  The UNDER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 19-7 in 76ers last 26 games as underdogs overall.  The UNDER is 36-14-1 in Mavericks last 51 home games.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Mavericks last 12 games as home favorites.  Dallas is 11-1 UNDER in home games after playing a home game this season.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Nuggets UNDER 225

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Pelicans and Nuggets just played on January 28th with Denver winning 116-105 on the road.  Now they face a week later here and are clearly familiar with one another.  These teams were tied 105-105 at the end of regulation for 210 combined points in their first meeting this season as well.

The UNDER is 9-4 in Pelicans last 13 games overall.  They have combined with their opponents for 225 or fewer points in 11 of their last 13 games.  They have been a great UNDER bet all season because they rank 20th in pace and 25th in offensive efficiency.  The Nuggets rank 22nd in pace.

New Orleans is 8-0 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  The UNDER is 24-9 in Pelicans last 33 games as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Pelicans last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Nuggets last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Denver.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State -3

I love the spot for the Colorado State Rams tonight.  They opened 16-1 this season with their lone loss coming to San Diego State on the road.  It was their worst loss of the season, and they will be out for revenge from that loss tonight.

Adding to the Rams' motivation is they are coming off consecutive losses for the first time this season to fall to 16-3.  They were upset at home by UNLV and suffered a tough OT loss at Wyoming, which is undefeated at home this season and just beat Boise State at home.  It's safe to say we're going to get a big effort from the Rams tonight, and it should be enough to cover this short number.

Colorado State is 10-1 at home this season.  San Diego State is just 1-3 SU in true road games with its lone win coming at UNLV by 7.  The Aztecs were blown out at Michigan by 14, blown out at Utah State by 18 and lost at BYU by 6.

The Aztecs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Colorado State Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -4.5

The injuries are piling up for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They've already been without Collin Sexton (16.0 PPG) and Ricky Rubio (13.1 PPG, 6.6 APG).  But now they are without Darius Garland (19.8 PPG, 8.2 APG) and Lauri Markkanen (13.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG), too.  They don't have a true point guard right now and it is hurting them.

The Cavaliers are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now they have to travel to face an improved Charlotte Hornets team that could be back to full strength tonight with Gordon Hayward upgraded to questionable.  They have enough to win and cover against the Cavaliers with or without Hayward.

The Hornets are 9-5 SU & 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Charlotte is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games after losing two of its last three games.  The Hornets are 10-0 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games this season.  Charlotte is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Wyoming ML -109

The Wyoming Cowboys want revenge from a 65-62 road loss at Boise State on January 25th just over a week ago.  I expect the Cowboys to have their revenge at home this time around.

Wyoming has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  The Cowboys are 9-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 21.7 points per game.

Boise State just seems to have nine lives.  The Broncos have won 14 straight games with the last six all coming by 8 points or fewer, including five straight by 6 points or less.  They got a 3-pointer at the buzzer to force OT at Fresno State last time out and went on to win.  I think their luck runs out tonight, and they are nowhere near as good as their record.

The Cowboys are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  Wyoming is 25-10-1 ATS in its last 36 games following a win.  The Cowboys are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Wyoming Thursday.

15* UCLA/Arizona ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -6.5

The Arizona Wildcats want revenge from their worst loss of the season.  They lost 59-75 despite being 3-point road favorites at UCLA on January 25th just over a week ago.  Now they come back as only 6.5-point home favorites, and this 3.5-point difference isn't a big enough adjustment for home-court advantage and the revenge factor.

Arizona is a perfect 11-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 29.5 points per game.  UCLA will be without Jaylen Clark and could be without Jaime Jaquez Jr., who is questionable.  They will get back Johnny Juzang but he will likely be rusty in his first game back.

UCLA is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games.  Take Arizona Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors -3.5

The Toronto Raptors are fully healthy right now and playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins over the Heat (twice) and the Hawks on the road.

Now the Raptors want revenge from a 105-111 road loss at Chicago on January 26th just over a week ago.  But the Raptors were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 125-113 home win over Charlotte the previous night.  The Bulls had the previous day off and were in a great spot, and I cashed in the Bulls as 3.5-point favorites in that game.

Chicago has been shaky in its last three road games.  The Bulls lost outright as 3.5-point favorites 95-114 at Orlando.  They went on to beat Oklahoma City 111-110 as 1.5-point road favorites.  And they lost 122-131 at San Antonio as 1-point road dogs in their last game away from home.  This is a much stiffer test for them tonight.

Toronto is 26-10 ATS in its last 36 games following a win by 6 points or fewer.  The Bulls are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Raptors are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Toronto is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with the Raptors Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Northern Iowa -4

I like the spot for the Northern Iowa Panthers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 69-71 road loss at Bradley as 4.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  Now the Panthers are only 4-point home favorites at home in the rematch, so the books haven't even adjusted for home-court advantage.

The Braves are overvalued right now due to going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Panthers are undervalued due to going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  So it's a great 'buy low' spot on the Panthers, who may still be the best team in the MVC.  And it's a great 'sell high' spot on the Braves.

Bradley is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half of last game.  Take Northern Iowa Wednesday.

20* Grizzlies/Knicks ESPN No-Brainer on Memphis -3.5

Nobody is playing better than the Memphis Grizzlies right now.  They are 16-4 SU & 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They are coming off an upset loss at Philadelphia in overtime.  Well, the Grizzlies are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games off a loss and haven't dropped two in a row since before Christmas.

They will get back on track tonight against a struggling New York Knicks team that is just 2-6 SU in thier last eight games overall with their only wins coming against the lowly Kings and Clippers at home.  When they have stepped up in competition they have been crushed with four of their last six losses coming by double-digits to the Bucks, Heat, Pelicans and Hornets.

The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Memphis is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Grizzlies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games.  The Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State +5

This is a terrible spot for the Drake Bulldogs.  They are coming off a huge upset home win over Loyola-Chicago, the favorites to win the MVC coming into the season.  This is the ultimate letdown spot for them tonight as they travel to face Indiana State.

We faded Missouri State in this exact same spot last week.  The Bears were coming off an upset win over Loyola-Chicago.  They came back as 5-point favorites at Indiana State and lost outright 72-76.  I think the Bulldogs suffer the same fate tonight.

Indiana State is 7-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS at home this season.  They lost by 2 to Valpo and lost by 8 to Loyola-Chicago after blowing a double-digit lead.  They upset Bradley and upset Missouri State at home.

Drake is 0-6 ATS in road games following a win this season.  The Bulldogs are 1-9 ATS in thier last 10 road games.  Drake is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Bulldogs are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games as favorites.  The Sycamores are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games as home underdogs.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia +10.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Arkansas Razorbacks tonight.  They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only wins by double-digits coming against South Carolina and Missouri at home.  But the Razorbacks are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in true road games this season with two double-digit losses and both wins by single-digits.

Now the Razorbacks find themselves as double-digit road favorites against Georgia.  The Bulldogs were last seen at home upsetting Alabama 82-76 as 14.5-point home underdogs.  And they are more than capable of giving the Razorbacks a run for their money at home tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-2 SU in the last 11 meetings with the two losses coming by 3 and 4 points.  In fact, the home team hasn't lost by more than 4 points in any of the last 16 meetings, making for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Take Georgia Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +11

Purdue has been overvalued here of late.  The Boilermakers are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have only won two of their last eight games by more than 10 points and those were home games against lowly Nebraska and Northwestern.

Now the Boilermakers hit the road to take on a feisty Minnesota team that is highly motivated for a victory.  The Golden Gophers haven't lost any of their last five games by more than 11 points and they played a brutal schedule of Michigan State, Iowa, Rutgers, Ohio State and Wisconsin during this stretch.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Minnesota has beaten Purdue outright in both home meetings during this stretch.  The underdog is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  The Boilermakers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites.  Roll with Minnesota Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and have been a money maker for weeks. The betting public wants nothing to do with this team, providing us value to continue backing them.

I especially like the spot for the Pistons tonight. They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days. They are coming off a 115-105 upset home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers as 7.5-point dogs. They also recently upset the Raptors as 9-point dogs and the Jazz as 11-point dogs at home.

This is a terrible spot for the New Orleans Pelicans. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days after a 90-93 road loss at Cleveland last night. They are banged up right now with several key players questionable, making the spot even worse.

The Pelicans are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games. The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

20* Kansas/Iowa State ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State +4.5

The Iowa State Cyclones will be out for revenge from a 61-62 loss at Kansas in their first meeting this season. I believe they have a great shot at upsetting the Jayhawks in the rematch at home this time around.

Iowa State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They are back to having a huge home-court advantage and are 12-2 at home this season.

The Jayhawks have been getting too much respect for weeks. They have failed to cover four in a row and are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. They were just blasted 62-80 at home by Kentucky despite being a 5-point favorite. Four of their last five wins have come by 3 points or fewer as well.

Iowa State is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog, including 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog. Kansas is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Iowa State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +11.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Texas A&M Aggies. They opened 15-2 this season and have now lost four straight games all by 11 points or less, including three by 6 points or fewer to Kentucky, LSU and Arkansas. The Aggies haven't lost a game by more than 11 points all season.

Now they are catching 11.5 points against an overrated Tennessee Vols team that just suffered a gut-punching 51-52 loss at Texas. The Vols went on a 16-0 run to tie the game in the final four minutes, only to lose on a free throw. It will be hard to get back up off the mat after that kind of defeat.

Home-court advantage has not mattered in this series. In fact, the road team is 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Buzz Williams is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points as the coach of the Aggies. Roll with Texas A&M Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia +14.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the West Virginia Mountaineers tonight.  They have gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule of Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Arkansas.  You won't get them at a better value all season than you will tonight.

I love the spot for the Mountaineers as they will be out for revenge from a 68-77 home loss to Baylor on January 18th less than two weeks ago.  They were only 4.5-point home dogs in that game and are now 14.5-point road dogs, which is a 10-point adjustment.  That is too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage and it just goes to show how undervalued the Mountaineers are right now, coupled with the respect Baylor gets for winning the title last year.

Baylor hasn't won any of its last 15 meetings with West Virginia by more than 12 points.  That makes for a 15-0 system backing the Mountaineers pertaining to this 14.5-point spread.  The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet West Virginia Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Rockets OVER 229

The Houston Rockets are the perfect team for OVERS.  They rank 1st in pace this season and 30th in defensive efficiency.  Golden State also likes to push the tempo ranking 9th in pace.  And the Warriors are without arguably their three best defenders in Draymond Green, Otto Porter Jr. and Andre Iguodala tonight.

The Rockets and their opponents have combined for 230 or more points in 11 of their last 15 games overall.  The Warriors have gotten their offense going in scoring 130 against the Mavericks, 124 against the Timberwolves and 110 against the Nets in their last three games coming in.  They will likely hang 120-plus on the Rockets to lead the way to cashing this OVER ticket.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Golden State) - off two or more consecutive home wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 26-3 (89.7%) over the last five seasons.

The OVER is 21-8 in Rockets last 29 games overall.  The OVER is 13-3 in Rockets last 16 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +3.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are playing better than any other team in the NBA right now.  They are 16-3 SU & 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  And here they are catching points again tonight to the Philadelphia 76ers.  Look for them to win this game outright.

While the Grizzlies have done their damage against a brutal schedule in the West, the 76ers have had the luxury of a much softer schedule during their recent run of 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall.  They are the team getting respect for their run unlike the Grizzlies.  The wrong team is favored here.

Memphis crushed Philadelphia 126-91 at home in their lone meeting this season.  The Grizzlies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings also winning 116-100 in their lone trip to Philadelphia.  Memphis is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 road games.  Roll with the Grizzlies Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Suns UNDER 228

The San Antonio Spurs have decided to rest three of their top four scorers in Dejounte Murray (19.4 PPG, 9.1 APG), Derrick White (14.2 PPG, 5.7 APG) and Jakob Poeltl (13.2 PPG) tonight.  The losses of Murray and White will really hamper them offensively and points will be hard to come by.

Now they will be up against a Phoenix Suns team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.  The Suns are big favorites, so there's a good chance this one gets out of hand by the 4th quarter and we don't have to sweat the foul game.  The Suns also have some key defenders upgraded to questionable today in Ayton, McGee and Crowder that would help the UNDER if they played.

The Suns aren Spurs have combined for 228 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Spurs last seven games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 13-5-2 in Spurs last 20 games as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Suns last nine games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +3.5

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated playoff teams in the history of the NFL.  Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season.  They were a nightmare matchup for the Cowboys and Packers, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Rams as well. They are also 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained nine of their last 11 opponents during this streak.

The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason.  After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT).  They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT.  They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win.  

They came into the playoffs with a ton of confidence and it carried over into their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as 3-point dogs in which they were in control of the game the entire way.  They went on the road again and trailing 10-3 late in the 4th quarter, got a blocked punt return TD to tie the game, eventually beating the Packers on a game-winning field goal at the gun.  Holding the Cowboys to 17 points and the Packers to 10 points is no small feat and shows how good this defense is playing right now.

Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense.  Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense.  They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP).  They are also 4th in defensive success rate against the run and 4th in defensive success rate against the pass.

The 49ers have really gotten their running game going in recent weeks, rushing for at least 100 yards in six of their last seven games.  And with an elite defense and running game, we've seen before that teams can make deep runs in the playoffs.  The 49ers feel like they are playing with house money with the way they have beaten the Rams, Cowboys and Packers in three straight tight, one-score games.  They feel like they can win in any situation now, and getting 3.5 points with them here is a great value.

The 49ers simply own the Rams.  They have gone 6-0 SU in the last six meetings with five outright wins as underdogs.  Their defense is a nightmare matchup for the Rams as they have held them to 311 or fewer yards in five of those six meetings, including 265 and 278 in their two meetings this season.  They can get pressure by rushing only four, and Matthew Stafford has been great against the blitz, which is why he dissected both the Cardinals and Rams, two blitz-heavy teams.  He won't have that luxury against the 49ers, who can get pressure with four with their dominant defensive line.

The 49ers have proven they can run on the Rams as they have rushed for at least 107 yards in nine of their last 10 meetings.  That allows them to control the ball and keep the Rams off the field.  Jimmy G is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing the ball over the middle, and the Rams are one of the worst defenses in the NFL at defending passes over the middle.  That's another reason this is a nightmare matchup for Los Angeles.

The Rams will have zero home-field advantage in this game, which is why this line shouldn't be 3.5.  It should be closer to PK.  You could hear the 49ers fans over the Rams fans in that Week 18 game, and this is a short trip for 49ers fans again to Los Angeles.  They will make the trip, and this will be more of a 50-50 crowd than this line indicates.  I also love the fact that the 49ers have an extra day to get healthy and prepare for the Rams after playing on Saturday, while the Rams played on Sunday.  San Francisco needs this extra time playing in its 4th consecutive road game, and the short travel doesn't really make this a road game.

Don't buy into the hype that it's tough to beat a team three times in the same season.  Teams that are 2-0 in the regular season against an opponent have gone 14-7 SU in the playoffs when facing them for a 3rd time.  The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven January games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The 49ers are 8-3 SU in road games this season and have played their best football on the highway.  Their run continues as they just seem to be a team of destiny this season.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +8.5

I've made a lot of money off the Cleveland Cavaliers this season.  But the verdict is out on them now, and they are starting to be overvalued.  That's definitely the case today as they are 8.5-point road favorites over the Detroit Pistons, which is out of control.

The Cavaliers are in a big letdown spot here off their upset home win over the Milwaukee Bucks last time out.  They are getting too much respect after winning eight of their last nine games overall.  In their last six road games, they have only won once by more than 5 points.

Now they take on an undervalued Detroit Pistons team that is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Pistons are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  They will give the Cavaliers a run for their money tonight.

The Cavaliers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Detroit is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following an ATS loss.  Take the Pistons Sunday.

20* Bengals/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on OVER 54

The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals meet in the AFC Championship in a rematch from a 34-31 thriller back on January 2nd.  The Bengals had 475 yards while the Chiefs had 414 yards in an absolute shootout that saw 65 combined points.  It should be more of the same here in the rematch as we'll side with the OVER 54.  The weather report for Kansas City is great for this time of year with sunny skies, temps in the 40's and less than 5 MPH winds.  That will help us cash this OVER as well.

Joe Burrow has this Cincinnati offense humming.  He has led them to 30.0 points per game in his last four starts while throwing for 1,563 yards and a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  I expect the Bengals to be playing from behind and Burrow to have to try to keep them in it, which he is more than capable of doing.  

He'll be up against a Kansas City defense that was hit hard by injuries in the secondary against the Bills and could be missing a couple key players.  This is an overrated KC defense as it is ranking 28th in the NFL in allowing 5.8 yards per play.  Burrow threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns in that first meeting.

The Chiefs are humming on offense right now and are as healthy as they have been all season on this side of the ball.  They are scoring 37.3 points per game in their last seven games while winning six of those with their lone loss coming 31-34 at Cincinnati.  The Bengals have some key injuries along their front seven defensively that will make it even more difficult for them to tame this Kansas City offense.

The OVER is 7-0 in Chiefs last seven games overall.  The OVER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine January games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Chiefs last seven vs. AFC opponents.  Kansas City holds nothing back offensively in the playoffs when games matter most, making them even more potent than during the regular season.  Burrow is more than capable of matching Mahomes score for score to help us cash this OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Marquette/Providence Big East No-Brainer on Providence -2.5

The Providence Friars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 17-2 this season despite being an underdog time after time.  That includes their 65-62 win at Xavier as 7.5-point road dogs last time out.

Now the Friars will be out for revenge from one of their two losses this season.  Not only was it a loss, and it was an ugly 56-88 blowout road loss at Marquette.  The Friars have not forgotten, and now it's their turn for revenge at home this time around.

Marquette is getting a lot of respect due to going 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Golden Eagles.  They go from +1 at home against Providence to only +2.5 on the road, a 1.5-point adjustment which isn't big enough for home-court advantage.  Especially considering Providence is 12-0 at home this season and will be motivated to keep that perfect mark intact.

Providence is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when revenging a same-season loss, including 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or fewer.  The Friars are 9-0 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Providence is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The favorite is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Providence Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oregon State +12.5

The Oregon State Beavers are undervalued right now due to their 3-14 record this season.  That has been evident with their 4-1-1 ATS run in their last six games overall.  And now they are catching too many points against rival Oregon tonight.

Oregon beat Oregon State 78-76 as 4.5-point road favorites in their first meeting.  Now the books have adjusted this number 8 points to 12.5, which is way too much.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Ducks after recent upset wins over UCLA and USC.  They have no business being this big of a favorite against the revenge-minded Beavers.

Each of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided by 15 points or fewer, so these games have all been competitive.  Oregon State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after two straight games with 5 or fewer steals.  The Beavers are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after covering four or five of their last six ATS.  The Beavers are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  Take Oregon State Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford +12

Stanford is playing too well right now to be catching 12 points from UCLA.  The Cardinal are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their only losses coming by 4 at Colorado, by 3 at Washington, by 7 to Texas and to Arizona.  They upset USC twice during this stretch as well.

UCLA is getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They will be without Jaylen Clark and could be without Johnny Juzang, who is questionable in quarantine.  Either way, the Cardinal have the firepower to stay within 12 points of the Bruins even if they were at full strength.

Stanford is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with UCLA with the lone loss coming by 7 points.  The Cardinal are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

20* Nets/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on OVER 230.5

We have both James Harden and Kyrie Irving listed as probable tonight for the Nets.  They are an OVER team when these two are in the lineup because they are elite on offense and terrible on defense.  Then you have the two best defenders out for the Warriors in Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala.  So this game sets up as an OVER.

The Warriors are really clicking right now with Curry, Thompson, Poole and Wiggins all healthy.  They followed up a 130-point performance against a good Mavericks defense with 124 points against the Timberwolves last time out.

The Nets are also on fire on that end right now.  They have scored 117 points or more in four of thier last five games.  But they are atrocious defensively, allowing 112 or more points in 12 of their last 15 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Tennessee/Texas ESPN No-Brainer on Texas -3.5

The Texas Longhorns hit a rough patch to start Big 12 play but have since rebounded nicely.  They are coming off one of their best performances of the season in a 73-50 win as 2.5-point favorites at TCU.  And I look for them to crush the Tennessee Vols at home tonight.

The Volunteers have been mental midgets on the road this season.  They are 1-3 SU in their last four true road games with their only victory coming at Vanderbilt.  They lost by 5 at Alabama, by 12 at LSU and by 28 at Kentucky.  Texas is on those teams' level.  The Longhorns are 12-1 at home this season with their lone loss coming by a single point.

Tennessee is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Vols are 12-32 ATS in their last 44 road games off three straight conference wins.  Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  The Longhorns should be bigger home favorites tonight.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on UCF +7.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Houston Cougars.  They have won nine straight games and have yet to lose in AAC action.  But they only won by 5 at Temple and by 2 at Tulsa in two of their three road games during this stretch, so they are vulnerable away from home.

UCF has been great at home this season and will give the Cougars a run for their money tonight.  They are 8-2 SU at home with upset wins over Michigan and Memphis and a 3-point loss to Oklahoma.  They are more than capable of pulling the upset, and at the very least staying within this 7.5-point spread.

UCF is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after failing to cover four or five of its last six games.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Knights, who will be more motivated for this game than any other game this season.  It will be an electric atmosphere in Orlando tonight with a Top 10 team coming to town as this is one of the most underrated fan bases in the country.  Take UCF Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -9.5

The Dallas Mavericks are rolling right now having gone 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall with nine wins by double-digits.  They will rack up another one today considering they are rested and ready to go while the Indiana Pacers are not.

Indeed, the Mavericks come in on two days' rest after beating the Blazers 132-112 on the road Wednesday.  The Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 113-110 (OT) win at Oklahoma City last night.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Pacers.

If playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off an OT game isn't bad enough, the Pacers are short-handed right now.  They are playing without Malcolm Brodgon and Myles Turner and could be without both Goga Bitadze and Chris Duarte, who have both been downgraded to questionable after both suffered injuries last night.  This is too tough of a spot for the Pacers to even keep this game competitive tonight.  Roll with the Mavericks Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Maryland ML +107

The Maryland Terrapins are starting to play up to their potential after a rough start to the season with several close losses.  After beating Illinois 81-65 as 4.5-point home dogs on January 21st, they came back with another upset road win 68-60 at Rutgers as 3.5-point dogs.

Now the Terrapins come back as home underdogs to the Indiana Hoosiers when they shouldn't be.  The Hoosiers are just 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in true road games this.  Their lone road win came 78-71 as 8-point favorites at Nebraska, which is still winless in Big Ten play.

Maryland is 4-0 SU in four home meetings with Indiana since joining the Big Ten.  The Hoosiers are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Fresno State +1.5

I love the spot for Fresno State tonight.  The Bulldogs will be out for revenge from a 55-65 road loss at Boise State as 4.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they have only adjusted this line 3 points total for flipping home courts, which isn't enough when you consider how good the Bulldogs have been at home this season.

Indeed, Fresno State is 9-0 SU & 7-0 ATS at home this season.  The Bulldogs are outscoring opponents by 16.6 points per game at home behind suffocating defense, holding opponents to just 53.0 points per game and 37.1% shooting.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Boise State, which has won 13 straight games coming in.  They have been fortunate in close games winning four straight games by 6 points or fewer coming in and five straight by 8 or fewer.  I think their luck runs out tonight.  They are a tired team playing in their 4th different city in 9 days.

The Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.  They should not be underdogs to the Broncos tonight.  Bet Fresno State Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls ML -105

The Chicago Bulls just got Zach LaVine back and DeMar Derozan is back from resting.  Now they have these two to go along with Nikola Vucevic.  They are still missing some role players, but as long as they have these three healthy they are a dangerous team.

They should be favored over a San Antonio Spurs team that is in rebuilding mode.  The Spurs are just 4-13 SU & 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games overall despite being mostly healthy during this stretch.  The four wins came against the Rockets, Thunder, Clippers and Celtics.

A big reason for the Spurs' struggles is they are tired right now playing their 15th game in 25 days.  San Antonio is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Bulls on the Money Line Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Hawks OVER 218

The Atlanta Hawks are finally at full strength right now after being without guys all season.  It's no surprise they have gone 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall while playing their best basketball of the season.

The Hawks have gotten back to being an offensive juggernaut.  They have scored at least 110 points in all five games.  In fact, they have scored at least 108 points in 13 of their last 15 games overall.  They will hang a big number on the Celtics tonight.

Boston is also playing well scoring at least 102 points in six straight including 116 points against the Wizards and 128 points against the Kings in back-to-back victories.  They are basically at full strength as well after battling injury all season.

The Celtics and Hawks have combined for at least 219 points in five of their last six meetings.  They have combined for at least 218 points in eight of their last 10 meetings as well.  The OVER is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings.  The OVER is 5-0 in Celtics last five games as underdogs.  The OVER is 5-0 in Hawks last five Friday games.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Timberwolves/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 228.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are an offensive juggernaut when De'Angelo Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards have all been on the court at the same time.  It's no wonder they are playing their best basketball of the season right now with these players all healthy for several weeks now.

Indeed, the Timberwolves are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games overall.  They have been winning with offense, scoring at least 108 points in nine consecutive games while averaging 123.0 points per game in those nine games.  They have allowed 107 or more points in seven of their last eight games, so they are not doing it with defense.  The OVER is 7-2 in their last nine games overall.

The Warriors are missing their two best defenders in Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala.  They have had to play more small ball, and they got their offense going last time out by scoring 132 points against Dallas.  With an lineup that boasts Curry, Thompson, Poole and Wiggins, the Warriors are definitely a potent offensive team that cannot be held back for long.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series with combined scores of 233 or more points in four of those five.  The OVER is 6-0 in Timberwolves last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 9-1 in Timberwolves last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 40-19 in Timberwolves last 59 games as road underdogs.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on California +16.5

The UCLA Bruins are in a huge letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 75-59 home victory over Arizona on Tuesday.  Now they have just one day to get ready for California, and they won't be that motivated to beat a Golden Bears team they have already beaten once on the road.

That's going to make it hard for the Bruins to cover this 16.5-point spread when they're lacking the motivation to do so.  Meanwhile, California wants revenge from that 52-60 home loss as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now this number has been adjusted 8 points for home-court advantage, which is way too much given the spot.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Golden Bears after going 0-5 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have faced a brutal schedule during this stretch with three of the losses coming to USC, UCLA and Arizona at home and Washington and Washington State on the road.  Only one of the five losses came by more than 14 points.  California is rested and ready to go having last played on Sunday, so they have had three days off to get ready for the Bruins.

The Golden Bears are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  California is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit home loss.  The Golden Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss.  California is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  UCLA is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite.  Six of the last seven meetings in this series were decided by 15 points or less.  Bet California Thursday.

20* Purdue/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa +2.5

Iowa wants revenge from a 77-70 road loss at Purdue in their first meeting this season.  The Hawkeyes didn't have their best player in Keegan Murray (22.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 2.2 BPG) for that contest, so having him healthy for the rematch will make all the difference.  It was actually impressive they kept that game competitive without him.

Iowa is 11-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Illinois.  The Hawkeyes are stomping teams at home this season, outscoring them by 22.5 points per game.  Purdue is just 2-2 SU in true road games this season with upset losses to Indiana and Rutgers.  Winning on the road in the Big Ten is tougher than any other conference in the country.

Purdue is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.  The Boilermakers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  Iowa is 33-15-3 ATS in its last 51 home games, including 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog.  The home team is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Take Iowa Thursday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M +10

Buzz Williams is turning around this Texas A&M program just as he has done in his previous stops at Marquette and Virginia Tech.  He is easily one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He has the Aggies sitting at 15-4 this season with three losses by 6 points or less and an 11-point loss to Wisconsin.

The Aggies should not be catching double-digits against LSU, which is 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in its last three games overall, including a 14-point loss at Tennessee and an upset home loss by 7 to Arkansas as a 6.5-point favorite.  Two of LSU's top three scorers in Xavier Pinson (10.9 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Darius Days (13.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG) are both questionable tonight.  I like the Aggies to stay within this number even if both guys play.

LSU is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points.  The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Texas A&M is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Texas A&M Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Bulls -3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls.  They have been banged up and have gone just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But they are getting healthier now as Zach LaVine just returned last game, and DeMar DeRozan will be back after resting last game against the Thunder.

While the Bulls had yesterday off, the Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 125-113 home win over the Hornets last night.  It will also be the 8th game in 13 days for the Raptors, which is a very difficult spot.  The fatigue is stating to show as the Raptors are 3-5 SU in their last eight games overall.  They could be without two of their best players in Fred VanVleet and Scottie Barnes, who are both questionable and they may be wise to rest them.

The Bulls are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Raptors.  Chicago is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Toronto is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Take the Bulls Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -1.5

I love the spot for the West Virginia Mountaineers tonight.  They are coming off three straight losses to the three best teams in the Big 12 in Kansas, Baylor and Texas Tech.  They will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight, and they take a big step down in class against Oklahoma.

The Sooners continue to get too much respect from the books.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are just 2-5 in Big 12 play this season with both wins coming at home against Kansas State and Iowa State in which they needed late surges to put those games away.  They are 1-3 SU in true road games this season with their lone win coming at UCF by 3.

West Virginia is 10-1 SU at home this season and has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The only loss came to Baylor and they were competitive for 40 minutes in that game.  The Mountaineers are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 home games after going over the total in three or more consecutive games.  West Virginia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Sooners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Roll with West Virginia Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic ML -105

This is a great spot for the Orlando Magic and a terrible one for the Los Angeles Clippers.  The Magic will be playing on two days' rest after last seen beating the Bulls 114-95 at home on Sunday.  They will be rested and ready to go tonight against the Clippers.

The Clippers just completed a remarkable comeback last night down 30 at halftime to the Wizards and won 116-115 after a 3-pointer at the buzzer on an And-1.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 11th game in 18 days.

Making the spot even more difficult for the Clippers is it will be their 5th straight road game, so there has been a lot of travel involved.  It will be their 8th different city since January 13th as well.  The Clippers are already short-handed missing Paul George and Kawhi Leonard and could be without Marcus Morris.  This is a spot they will fall flat on their faces.

Los Angeles is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following an upset win as an underdog.  The Clippers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game.  Los Angeles is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +8.5

The Providence Friars have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have gone 16-2 this season which includes outright upset road wins at Wisconsin, at Connecticut and at DePaul.  So they have proven they can travel and beat great teams.

Now the Friars are catching 8.5 points against a Xavier team that has been overvalued for weeks.  The Musketeers are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone cover coming in a road win at lowly Butler.

Providence is 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Xavier with only two losses by more than 6 points.  The Friars are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Providence is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Friars are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Providence Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +13.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Auburn Tigers.  I cashed in Auburn in their 80-71 victory over Kentucky on Saturday for their 8th consecutive ATS cover.  But now the Tigers are in a massive letdown spot today off that Kentucky win as they travel to face one of the worst teams in the SEC in the Missouri Tigers.

Well, Missouri was one of the worst teams, but they are as improved as anyone in the conference over the last couple weeks.  Missouri is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall with a 92-86 upset home win over Alabama as 14-point dogs, a 3-point loss to Texas A&M as 5-point home dogs, a 78-53 win at Ole Miss as 7.5-point dogs and only a 10-point loss at Alabama as 18-point dogs.

Plays against any team (Auburn) - an explosive offensive team scoring 78 PPG or more against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 75 points or more in four straight games are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Missouri is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as home underdogs.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Don't be surprised to see Auburn fall flat on its face tonight and lose this game outright.  Bet Missouri Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +14.5

The Baylor Bears have been overvalued to open Big 12 play this year due to winning the title last year and coming into conference play unbeaten.  They have gone 5-2 SU but 3-4 ATS with all five of their wins coming by 14 points or less.  They even lost outright to Texas Tech as an 11.5-point home favorite and outright to Oklahoma State as a 14-point home favorite.

Conversely, Kansas State has been grossly undervalued in conference play.  The Wildcats are just 2-5 SU but 5-2 ATS.  Amazingly, all five of their losses have come by 13 points or less with four of those losses by 3 points or fewer.  They have been extremely competitive in conference play.  They upset Texas Tech by 11, went on the road and upset Texas as 10.5-point dogs and nearly upset Kansas in a 3-point loss as 6-point home dogs.  They only lost by 2 at Oklahoma as 7.5-point dogs and by 3 at West Virginia as 9-point dogs.

Kansas State is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.  Baylor is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  The road team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  This is simply too many points tonight.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +12.5

Southern Illinois is much better than its 10-9 record would indicate and should not be catching 12.5 points against the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers tonight.  In fact, all nine of their losses have come by 12 points or fewer this season.  All four of their conference losses have come by 8 points or fewer, including three by 5 points or less to Missouri State, Northern Iowa and Drake, three of the top teams in the conference.

Loyola-Chicago has been grossly overvalued of late.  They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They needed OT to beat Bradley as a 13-point home favorite and needed OT to beat Valpo as a 15.5-point home favorite.  They needed a 15-point comeback to win at Indiana State, and they lost outright as an 8-point home favorite to Missouri State.  Their lone blowout win during this stretch came against lowly Evansville, which is getting blown out by everyone.

The Ramblers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games.  The Salukis are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Roll with Southern Illinois Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +9

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Boston Celtics coming off their 116-87 road win over the Washington Wizards thanks to a 50-point game from Jayson Tatum.  Now they come back as 9-point home favorites against the Sacramento Kings tonight.

The Kings are playing to well to be catching 9 points, and asking the Celtics to beat them by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Kings have played six straight games where they haven't lost once by more than 6 points.  That includes a 6-point road loss at Milwaukee, and upset win over the Lakers and a 1-point home loss to the Cavaliers.

The Kings simply have the Celtics' number.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with three outright wins and their two losses coming by 1 and 6 points.  IN fact, they haven't lost any of their last six meetings with the Celtics by more than 6 points.

Sacramento is rested and ready to go playing just its 2nd game in 6 days.  The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on two days' rest.  The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Boston is 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Take the Kings Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +7.5

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 111-117 road loss at Denver on Sunday.  Now they get to face the Nuggets at home here just two days later.  Look for them to easily cover this 7.5-point spread and possibly win outright.

The Pistons have been very good here of late in going 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with an upset win at Sacramento, a 10-point loss as 13-point dogs at Utah and a 6-point loss at 12-point dogs at Denver.  Now they are back home here where they have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games with upset wins over the Spurs as 7-point dogs, the Jazz as 11-point dogs and the Raptors as 9-point dogs.

While the Pistons will be motivated for revenge, the Nuggets won't be all that interested in beating them for a 2nd time in 3 days.  And motivation is everything in the NBA.  Plus, the Nuggets have a huge game on deck tomorrow night at Brooklyn.  They will be looking ahead to that game and overlooking the Pistons.

Plays against road teams (Denver) - after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games against an opponent that has covered the spread in three or more consecutive games are 57-27 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Raptors OVER 222.5

This total has been set too low tonight due to recent low-scoring games by both the Toronto Raptors and Charlotte Hornets.  The under is 7-1 in Raptors last eight games overall.  The under is also 7-1 in Hornets last eight games overall.

Charlotte has been a great OVER team all season until recently and so have the Raptors.  Now the oddsmakers have been forced to set this total lower than it should be, and we will take advantage here and back the OVER in a game between two teams with great offenses and suspect defenses.

The Hornets rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 6th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency, which is why they are such a great OVER team.  The Raptors rank just 17th in defensive efficiency and have been a much more efficient offensive team since they have gotten healthy.

The OVER is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Toronto.  The OVER is 11-1 in Hornets last 12 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The OVER is 7-1 in Raptors last eight games as home favorites.  The OVER is 8-2 in Raptors last 10 home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State +6

The Missouri State Bears are in a massive letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 79-69 upset win at Loyola-Chicago as 8-point underdogs to hand the Ramblers their first conference loss of the season.  They are their biggest competition to win the Missouri Valley.

Indiana State is no pushover.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sycamores, who have lost four straight coming in all by 8 points or less.  Three of those came to three of the top teams in the conference in Northern Iowa, Loyola-Chicago and Southern Illinois.  They will be competitive with the Bears tonight as well.

The underdog is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Sycamores are 6-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS at home this season.  Take Indiana State Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma City Thunder +2

The Chicago Bulls are banged up right now and missing six key players.  It's a big reason they have gone just 1-6 SU in their last seven games overall.  They should not be favored on the road over the Oklahoma City Thunder given the terrible spot for them.

The Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 95-114 loss in Orlando last night.  They will also be playing their 9th game in 14 days and in their 6th different city in 10 days.  The injuries, lack of rest and travel is really catching up to this team.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory after dropping five straight coming in including three losses by 7 points or fewer to Cleveland (twice) and Dallas.  They had yesterday off and are back home now after playing six of their last seven on the road.  Look for a big effort from them tonight as they are fully healthy while the Bulls remain short-handed.

Oklahoma City is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after a combined score of 185 points or less.  The Thunder are 10-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or less this season.  Oklahoma City is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games as home underdogs.  Take the Thunder Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina -4

The North Carolina Tar Heels will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following two straight blowout road losses at Miami and at Wake Forest.  Look for them to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight as they return home where they have been dominant all season.

Indeed, the Tar Heels are 9-0 SU & 5-4 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.9 points per game.  They have opened ACC play by crushing Virginia by 16 and Georgia Tech by 23 at home.  Look for them to easily cover this 4-point spread against Virginia Tech.

The Hokies are struggling right now.  They have gone just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are coming off an upset loss at Boston College.  The Hokies are now 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five true road games with their only win coming by 3 at lowly NC State.

North Carolina is 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with Virginia Tech with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  The Hokies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games when playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  The Tar Heels are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  Bet North Carolina Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -3

The Charlotte Hornets are fully healthy and rolling right now. They are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with si wins coming by 8 points or more.

The Atlanta Hawks are struggling in going 6-11 SU & 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. They have been terrible on the road all season in going 9-14 SU & 8-15 ATS away from home.

Charlotte is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 home games with a total of 230 or higher. Atlanta is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Hornets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games. The Hawks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 trips to Charlotte. Bet the Hornets Sunday.

20* Bills/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on OVER 54

Two of the best offenses in the NFL square off Sunday when the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Bills are putting up 29.4 points per game while the Chiefs are averaging 29.0 points per game this season.  Both offenses have been hitting on all cylinders here down the stretch with even better numbers.

Indeed, the Chiefs are scoring 36.5 points per game in their last six games.  The Bills are putting up 33.4 points per game in their last five games and just hung 47 on a very good New England defense.  Both teams will get their points, and which ever team is trailing is more than capable of catching up with a quick-strike offense.

The Bills do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they haven't faced many good offenses especially here down the stretch.  Their last five games have come against the Panthers, Patriots (twice), Falcons and Jets.  In the game prior they gave up 33 points and 488 total yards in a 33-27 loss to the Bucs.  Andy Reid and company can figure out their defense.  After all, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 32.2 points per game as a starter in the playoffs throughout his career.

The Bills will get their points against a soft Kansas City defense that ranks 28th in allowing 5.8 yards per play this season.  This is one of the most overrated defenses in the NFL.  The Bills shredded them in their first meeting this season in a 38-20 win for 58 combined points.  The Chiefs were held to 20 because they committed four turnovers, which won't happen again.  The previous meeting in the AFC Championship last year saw 62 combined points as well.  The books have set this number too low at 54 here.

The forecast looks great for a January game in Kansas City.  Indeed, temperatures will be in the 40's with less than 5 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation.  The OVER is 8-0 in Bills last eight games as underdogs.  The OVER is 6-0 in Chiefs last six games overall.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Kansas City.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington Wizards ML +109

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Wizards today hosting the Boston Celtics. The Wizards are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall and now find themselves as home underdogs to the Celtics.

Well, the Wizards haven't been healthy for most of this run, but now they are back to full strength. They should be a profitable bet moving forward starting with an upset home win over the Celtics today.

Boston is coming off two straight upset home losses to the Hornets and Blazers and they haven't been playing well for weeks. The Celtics are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall despite being mostly healthy.

The Celtics are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites. Boston is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games. The Wizards are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs. Washington is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take the Wizards Sunday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Saint Louis -9

I love the spot for Saint Louis today. The Billikens will be out for revenge from an 85-91 upset road loss at UMass on Thursday. Now they get to host the Minutemen here just three days later.

Saint Louis is 8-3 SU & 7-3 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 17.3 points per game. Their three losses came to Auburn by 4, Belmont by 5 and UAB by 5. Those are three great teams.

UMass is 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS in true road games this season with multiple losses by double-digits. I think the Billikens get them by double-digits today given the revenge spot.

Saint Louis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after losing two of its last three games coming in. The Minutemen are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Billikens are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games as home favorites. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with Saint Louis Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +13

The Northwestern Wildcats have been competitive despite going just 1-5 SU in their last six games overall. All five losses came by 8 points or fewer. In fact, they haven't a single game by more than 8 points all season.

They won't start today as they keep this game against Purdue competitive for 40 minutes. The Boilermakers have been consistently overvalued since Big Ten play started. They are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Northwestern has played Purdue tough in two straight meetings the last two seasons. The Wildcats only lost by 5 as 8-point road dogs last year and by 3 as 5.5-point home dogs two years ago. Purdue could be without its best player in Jaden Ivey (16.7 PPG), who is questionable with a hip injury. Take Northwestern Sunday.

15* 49ers/Packers FOX Saturday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +6

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated playoff teams in the history of the NFL.  Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Green Bay Packers just as they were against the Dallas Cowboys.  They are also 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained nine of their last 10 opponents during this streak.

The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason.  After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT).  They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT.  They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win.  They came into the playoffs with a ton of confidence and it carried over into their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as 3-point dogs in which they were in control of the game the entire way.

Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense.  Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense.  They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP).  They are also 4th in defensive success rate against the run and 4th in defensive success rate against the pass.

The 49ers have really gotten their running game going in recent weeks, rushing for at least 100 yards in five of their last six games.  That rushing attack consistently gives the Packers fits in the playoffs, which is a big reason Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 all-time against the 49ers in the postseason.  And the Packers rank 30th in defensive success rate against the run, making this a nightmare matchup for them.  Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in allowing 4.7 yards per carry.

The 49ers can take the same game plan they had against the Cowboys, which is control the game with their running game and play keep away from a potent Dallas defense.  And holding the Cowboys to just 17 points is no small feat as Dallas was the highest-scoring team in the NFL this season.  This defense can hold Aaron Rodgers and company in check as well, while the offense can control the ball with their running game and timely passes from Jimmy G.

Injuries to Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are a big reason this line is as high as it is.  But Jimmy G just said Wednesday he is good to go, the 49ers certainly expect to have Bosa available, and Warner was seen jumping around on the sidelines late in that Dallas game so he will probably be a go as well.  I think as the injury report looks better for the 49ers late in the week, this line will drop as +6 is not the right line.  

These teams are pretty evenly matched and the Packers should be closer to a 3-point favorite given the bye week and the home-field advantage.  Consider the 49ers were 3-point home favorites in their first meeting this season, so this is a 9-point adjustment and clearly shows there's value on the road dog.

The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight January games.  San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  Everyone is making too big a deal of the Packers playing at home at Lambeau Field in the cold.  But the 49ers are actually built for cold outdoor games with the better running game and defense than the Packers.  They have been a much better bet on the road than they have been at home in recent years, and they just went on the road and beat the Rams and Cowboys both.  They are getting disrespected again here and will continue playing with that chip on their shoulder, making them dangerous road warriors.  Roll with the 49ers Saturday.

15* UNC/Wake Forest ACC ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest -1.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Steve Forbes has this program on the rise as the Demon Deacons are 15-4 SU & 11-8 ATS this season.

Wake Forest has been particularly tough to tame at home, going 10-1 SU while outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game. Their lone home loss came to Duke. They are coming off two straight impressive road wins at Virginia and Georgia Tech.

North Carolina has been dominant at home as well, but terrible on the road. The Tar Heels are 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in all games played away from home with their three wins coming against Charleston, Georgia Tech and Boston College. They lost badly to Purdue, Tennessee and Kentucky on neutrals. They also were upset at Notre Dame and at Miami by 28 last time out.

The Tar Heels are 0-9 ATS in their last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game. North Carolina is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 road games. Roll with Wake Forest Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Bucks OVER 230.5

The Sacramento Kings have been a great OVER team all season because they play at a fast pace, can score and play no defense. The Kings rank 3rd in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency this season.

We've seen a ton of high-scoring Kings' games here of late. They have played four straight games that have seen 230 or more combined points including 240 or more in three of them. Now they take on a Bucks team that ranks 9th in pace and 8th in offensive efficiency, and those numbers would be even higher if they were healthy all season.

Now the Bucks are fully healthy with the exception of Brook Lopez. They should continue their trend of playing high-scoring games against the Kings. Amazingly, the OVER is 17-0 in the last 17 meetings. They have combined for 233 or more points in six consecutive meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +19.5

East Carolina is one of the most underrated teams in the American Athletic Conference this season. The Pirates are 11-6 SU & 10-7 ATS with all six losses coming by 10 points or less.

Now the Pirates are catching a whopping 19.5 points to Houston and should stay within this number with ease. The Cougars are overrated due to an eight-game winning streak against very weak competition. And note that seven of those eight wins came by 19 points or less with the lone exception being a non-conference home game against Texas State.

Lafayette only lost by 15 at Houston, Temple only lost by 5, South Florida lost by 17, Wichita State lost by 10, Tulsa lost by 2 and South Florida lost by 19 in the rematch. That's a very soft schedule, and you could argue that East Carolina is the best team Houston has faced since losing to Alabama prior to this eight-game winning streak.

Much worse ECU teams have given Houston problems the last two seasons. ECU won outright 82-73 as a 16.5-point home dog last season and only lost by 10 as a 13-point dog in 2020. The Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Take East Carolina Saturday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bengals/Titans OVER 47

It's going to be pretty perfect scoring conditions in Nashville for the month of January Saturday.  Temperatures will be in the mid-30's with less than 5 MPH winds.  These are two of the better offenses in the NFL, and both defenses are susceptible to the opposing offense's strengths.

Joe Burrow has this Cincinnati offense humming.  He has led their offense to 33.7 points per game in his last three starts while throwing for 1,215 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  The Bengals should be able to pass all over a Tennessee defense that is stout against the run, but ranks 25th against the pass in allowing 245.2 yards per game.  They gave up 306 passing yards to the 49ers and 289 more to the Texans in two of their last three games down the stretch.

The Titans are a dangerous offense when they have Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and Julio Jones all healthy.  Well, they haven't been healthy together for much of the season.  But they are entering the playoffs as Henry is expected to make his return.  And the Titans should be able to run all over a Cincinnati defense that ranks 17th in allowing 4.4 yards per carry.

But this Cincinnati defense just got even thinner and lost their best run stuffer in DT Larry Ogunjobi to a season-ending injury in the win over the Raiders last week.  They will also be without DT Mike Daniels, and they could be without DE Trey Hendrickson and DT Josh Tupou, who are both questionable.  The Titans should be able to run the football at will against this banged-up front seven, and that will set up big plays off play-action to Brown and Jones.

Tennessee is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games after winning three of its last four games.  The Titans are 6-0 OVER in their last six games after leading their previous game by 14 points or more at halftime.  The OVER is 5-0 in Bengals last five games after allowing more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Tennessee.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami -2.5

The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have gone 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their lone loss coming at Florida State by a final of 64-65.

Now the Hurricanes will be out for revenge from that defeat. They are coming off one of their best performances of the season, an 85-57 home win over North Carolina as 2.5-point dogs. They also recently beat Duke outright as 15-point road underdogs.

Florida State is 2-3 SU in true road games this season with narrow wins over Syracuse by 5 and NC State by 2, and blowout losses at Florida by 16, at Purdue by 28 and at Wake Forest by 22. This is a huge letdown spot for the Seminoles off an upset win over Duke at home and having already beaten Miami once this season.

Florida State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after going over the total in its previous game. Miami is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Seminoles are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games. Bet Miami Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Auburn SEC No-Brainer on Auburn -3.5

The Auburn Tigers may be the best team in the country. They are 17-1 SU & 14-4 ATS this season with their only loss coming to UConn in double-overtime. They have won and covered seven straight games coming into this matchup with Kentucky.

It's going to be a tremendous atmosphere at Auburn with the Wildcats coming to town today. The Tigers are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 20 points per game.

Kentucky has been great at home as well but mediocre on the road. The Wildcats are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season with losses to Notre Dame and LSU and their two wins coming against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M.

Auburn has won its last two home meetings with Kentucky as short favorites by 7 and 9 points. They are a short favorite again here and this may be the best team in Auburn history. Kentucky is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following three consecutive conference games. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. The Tigers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games. Auburn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. Roll with Auburn Saturday.

20* Rockets/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +11

This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 117-121 (OT) loss to the Indiana Pacers last night. It will also be the 6th game in 9 days for the Warriors, which is about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA.

This spot has made the Warriors decide to rest both Klay Thompson and Otto Porter Jr. tonight. They are already without Draymond Green and could decide to rest more. Stephen Curry played nearly 44 minutes last night and Andrew Wiggins over 38 minutes.

The Rockets are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. They are also playing some of their best basketball of the season in going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games all coming on the road. They upset the Spurs as 7-point road dogs, the Kings as 4.5-point road dogs and the Jazz as 13.5-point road dogs.

Plays on road underdogs (Houston) - an average 3-point shooting teams (33-36.5%) against an average 3-point defense (33-36.5%) after 42-plus games, after two straight games making 16 or more 3-pointers are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on San Antonio Spurs ML +110

The San Antonio Spurs want revenge from a recent 119-121 (OT) loss at Brooklyn in which they were short-handed and the Nets were pretty healthy with Kevin Durant. Now the Nets don't have Durant tonight, and the Spurs are almost fully healthy.

That return to health showed in their 118-96 home win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last time out. The Spurs are pretty rested right now as this will be their 6th straight home games. This is simply a great spot for them to win outright in revenge mode.

The Nets have been struggling for weeks in going 5-7 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. This will be their 8th game in 13 days so they are a tired team right now as well as missing their best player in Durant.

San Antonio is 22-11 ATS in its last 33 games when revenging a road loss. Brooklyn is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games as a favorite. The Nets are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS win. The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. San Antonio is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home meetings with Brooklyn. Roll with the Spurs on the Money Line Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +8.5

Anfernee Simons is playing like an All Star in the absence of Damian Lillard to keep the Blazers competitive. They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with three outright upsets as underdogs.

Now Simons has the luxury of having CJ McCollum back, who just returned a few games ago. He is going to continue to get stronger and better and get back to his old self with each passing game. And I fully expect the Blazers to give the Celtics a run for their money tonight.

The Celtics aren't playing well enough to warrant being an 8.5-point favorite here. They are 7-7 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They are coming off an upset home loss to the Charlotte Hornets and will now be playing their 10th game in 16 days.

Boston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite. Take the Blazers Friday.

20* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks -2.5

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory following two straight home losses against two teams that are surging in Charlotte and Minnesota.  Now they take a big step down in competition here against the New Orleans Pelicans and should handle their business.

The Pelicans are just 16-28 this season, including 6-17 SU & 7-16 ATS on the road this season and getting outscored by 8.4 points per game.  We are getting the Knicks at a great value as only 2.5-point home favorites.  They had won five of their previous six games prior to these two losses in a back-to-back situation against the Hornets and Timberwolves.

New Orleans is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games when revenging a loss where opponnent scores 100 points or more.  The Pelicans are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games.  New York is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* Suns/Mavs TNT ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -2.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Mavericks after going 10-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  This is where they fall flat on their faces as it's a terrible spot for them.

Indeed, the Mavericks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 102-98 home win over the Toronto Raptors last night.  It gets even worse as it will be the 5th game in 7 days for the Mavericks.  Doncic played 42 minutes last night, Finney-Smith 35 and Porzingis and Brunson 33 each.

The Mavericks won't have much left in the tank for the Phoenix Suns, who come in on two days' rest and playing some oof their best basketball of the season.  The Suns are 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with six wins by 13 points or more.  Teams haven't even been competitive with them, and the Mavericks won't either given the spot.

The Suns simply own the Mavericks, going 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Suns are 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings, including 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in Dallas.  The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take the Suns Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +6

The Memphis Tigers are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are just 4-7 SU & 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  That includes upset losses to Iowa State as an 11.5-point favorite, Georgia as an 11.5-point favorite, Ole Miss as a 1.5-point favorite, Ole Miss as a 10-point favorite, Tulane as a 6-point favorite, UCF as a 1-point favorite and ECU as a 7-point favorite.

A big reason for the Tigers' struggles is they are short-handed right now with seven players listed as questionable, doubtful or out on the injury report.  They should not be 6-point favorites over SMU, which is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall and playing as well as anyone in the American Athletic Conference right now.

Recent head-to-head history also shows there's value with SMU +6 tonight.  In fact, each of the last four meetings and five of the last six have been decided by 5 points or less.  The Mustangs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  The Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.  Bet SMU Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Jazz UNDER 231

The Utah Jazz just got the best defensive player in the NBA back in Rudy Gobert.  They were struggling mightily on defense without him, losing four straight games while allowing 111 or more points in all four.

Since his return, the Jazz held the Nuggets to 102 points and the Lakers to 101 points in his first two games back.  Now the Jazz take a huge hit on offense losing their best scorer in Donovan Mitchell (25.5 PPG).  They will be without him due to a concussion tonight, and I think the oddsmakers have set this total way too high.

The Rockets are definitely an over team with their lack of defense and decent offense.  But even this is too high of a total for them.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series with combined scores of 230 or fewer points in five of them.  That includes the 213 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.

The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Utah.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Rockets last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Plays on the UNDER on any team (Utah) - a good team (+7 PPG or better) against a bad team (-7 PPG or worse) after 42-plus games are 24-5 (82.8%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +22

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Bulldogs.  They have lost six straight while going 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But one of their best performances was a 77-92 loss at Kentucky as similar 22.5-point dogs, and I fully expect them to cover this 22-point spread at Auburn.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Tigers.  They have gone 13-0 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall with six straight covers.  That includes big wins over LSU, Florida and Alabama during this stretch.  Now the Tigers have a huge game on deck against Kentucky on Saturday and will be looking ahead.  They won't be giving Georgia their full attention, making it very difficult to cover this 22-point spread as a result.

Georgia is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog.  That includes an outright win as a 9-point dog at Auburn last season.  Bet Georgia Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards ML -105

The Brooklyn Nets are 4-7 SU & 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Things just got worse with the loss of their best player in Kevin Durant and they are already without several other key players.  This team continues to get too much respect tonight as a PK at Washington.

The Wizards just got Bradley Beal back from injury last time out and crushed the 76ers 117-98 as 2-point home underdogs.  They are fully healthy for basically the first time all season and will be a dangerous team moving forward.  They will take down the Nets tonight.

Washington is 9-1 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Wizards are 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games following a win by 10 points or more.  Washington is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with Brooklyn.  Bet the Wizards on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +12

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia 76ers.  They have gone 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They won't be very motivated to beat an Orlando Magic team for a 3rd time this season.  They won 101-96 as 14-point home favorites on November 29th and 116-106 as 8.5-point road favorites on January 5th after a late surge in the final two minutes.

The Magic will be out for revenge and they have been getting healthier by the day.  The Magic have been very competitive of late, losing just once by more than 10 points in their last nine games.  They have Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs and Mo Bamba back healthy and could get Wendell Carter Jr. back from injury tonight.

Orlando is 7-0 ATS in road games against Atlantic Division opponents this season.  The Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.  The 76ers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton -3.5

The Creighton Blue Jays are highly motivated for a victory after two straight road losses against arguably the two best teams in the Big East in Villanova and Xavier.  They have played three straight on the road while also upsetting Marquette.  

The Bluejays were last seen at home throttling Villanova 79-59 on December 17th, so they haven't played at home in over a month.  It's safe to say they will be excited to be back home in front of their fans and one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

St. John's is 0-4 in all games played away from home this season compared to 10-1 at home.  Creighton is 7-1 SU in its last eight home meetings with the Red Storm and only has to cover a short 3.5-point spread here.  

The Red Storm are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  St. John's is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take Creighton Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +8.5

What more does Iowa State have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  Until they do, we'll keep cashing tickets on them.  They are 14-3 this season with the three losses coming to Baylor by 5 as 7.5-point dogs, Kansas by 1 as 13-point road dogs and Oklahoma as 6-point road dogs after blowing a 10-point lead in the second half.

The losses are impressive, and the upset wins keep stacking up.  They upset Xavier as 9-point dogs, Memphis as 11.5-point dogs, Creighton as 5.5-point dogs, Iowa as 5-point dogs and Texas as 2.5-point dogs.  They also beat Texas Tech 51-47 in the first meeting as 5-point home favorites, and now the oddsmakers have made a 13.5-point adjustment by making the Red Raiders an 8.5-point home favorite.

Texas Tech is getting a lot of respect in the betting markets due to recent upset wins over Kansas as 7-point dogs and Baylor as 11.5-point dogs.  But they fell flat on their faces last time in in a 51-62 road loss at Kansas State as 4.5-point favorites, handing the Wildcats their first Big 12 win of the season.  They should maybe be favored in the rematch with the Cyclones at home, but they should not be this big of favorites.

The Cyclones are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs.  Iowa State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Texas Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after covering four or five of its last six games ATS.  Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin/Northwestern UNDER 140.5

Two great defensive teams that play at slow paces square off Tuesday night in Big Ten action.  This should be yet another defensive battle between Wisconsin and Northwestern, and the recent head-to-head history tells the story as to why there is value with the UNDER tonight.

Indeed, each of the last 16 meetings between Northwestern and Wisconsin have seen 139 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a 16-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 140.5-point total.  Enough said.  Roll with the UNDER In this game Tuesday.

20* Timberwolves/Knicks NBA TV No-Brainer on Minnesota -2.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing their best basketball of the season with De'Angelo Russell, Karl Anthony-Towns and Anthony Edwards all healthy.  They have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall with the five wins coming by an average of 18.8 points per game.  Their only losses coming on the road to the Pelicans at the buzzer and the Grizzlies by 8.

The Timberwolves are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The same cannot be said for the Knicks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after an 87-97 loss to the Charlotte Hornets on Monday.

While the Timberwolves are basically at full strength, the Knicks are missing four key players in Solomon Hill, Derrick Rose, Cameron Reddish and Nerlens Noel and could be without Kemba Walker, who is questionable.  That makes the spot even worse for the Knicks tonight behind short-handed.

Plays against underdogs (New York) - off a home loss by 10 points or more with a winning percentage between 45% and 55% on the season are 70-37 (65.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Timberwolves are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as road favorites.  Minnesota is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Knicks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on VCU -2

Davidson has won 13 straight games coming into this showdown with VCU.  But I think VCU is favored for good reason tonight and that streak comes to an end in what will be Davidson's stiffest challenge during this winning streak.

Davidson has played just four true road games during this streak with wins against overmatched competition in Charlotte, Northeastern, St. Joseph's and Richmond.  The win over Richmond was decent and came by only 3 points, but VCU is better than that overrated Richmond squad.

The Rams are 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They upset Syracuse, only lost to Baylor by 8 as 13.5-point dogs, only lost to UConn by 7 as 8-point dogs and lost at St. Bonaventure.  So all of their losses have come on the road during this stretch against very good teams in Baylor, UConn & St. Bonaventure.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.  VCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take VCU Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +11.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Mavericks.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Now they find themselves laying double-digits against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that has been feisty all season.

Indeed, the Thunder are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 games overall, including 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games.  They have only lost by double-digits once in their last eight games.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and more than capable of giving the Dallas Mavericks a run for their money tonight.

The Thunder are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games following two consecutive non-conference games.  Dallas is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* Cardinals/Rams ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4

The Los Angeles Rams simply own the Arizona Cardinals, and Sean McVay owns Kliff Kingsbury.  The Rams are 9-1 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cardinals with all nine wins coming by 7 points or more.  The one loss came this season when the Rams were coming off a huge win over the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs the previous week and were in a letdown spot early in the season.

That was back when Arizona was playing well.  The Cardinals have fallen flat on their faces since, and it has been yet another late-season collapse under Kingsbury.  He has been knowing for this dating back to his time at Texas Tech, and as you can tell he is one of my least favorite head coaches in the NFL.

The Cardinals are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five gams overall.  That includs an upset loss to Seattle as a 5.5-point home favorite, an upset loss to a short-handed Colts team as a 3-point favorite, an upset loss at Detroit by 18 as 13-point favorites and an upset home loss to the Rams by 7 as 3-point favorites.  The Rams made the proper adjustments in that 2nd meeting in a 30-23 win, and I trust McVay to have the right game plan to beat Arizona again.

It's not all Kingsbury's fault, though.  Injuries have played a big factor as they have been without DeAndre Hopkins and JJ Watt.  The defense has really taken a hit without Watt, and the offense is not close to how explosive it was when Hopkins was healthy.  Both James Conner and Chase Edmunds are banged up going into the playoffs, as is WR Rondale Moore with two of those three questionable.

The Rams have finished the season strong by going 5-1 SU in their final six games.  They won four of those five games by 7 points or more.  The lone loss came in OT to the 49ers in Week 18, which was predictable as there was a lot more at stake for the 49ers than there was for the Rams, and the 49ers are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.  A big reason the Rams are playing so well down the stretch is because they are one of the healthiest teams in these playoffs, unlike Arizona.

Yards per play is one of the most important stats in predicting NFL games.  The Rams are elite in this aspect, ranking 4th at 6.0 yards per play on offense and 10th at 5.2 yards per play allowed on defense.  They are outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play, which is one of the best marks in the league.  The Cardinals are 18th at 5.4 yards per play allowed on defense and 15th at 5.6 yards per play on offense, only outgaining teams by 0.2 yards per play.

The Rams don't always have the biggest home-field advantage in the regular season, but it will be a much bigger advantage in these playoffs.  Los Angeles is 10-2 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.  Kingsbury is 2-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season as the coach of Arizona.  Arizona is 1-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss.  The Rams are 28-13-1 ATS in their last 42 vs. NFC opponents.  Roll with the Rams Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Magic OVER 216

The Portland Trail Blazers have been a good OVER team no matter who has been on the court.  In fact, nine of their last 10 games have seen 215 or more combined points, with eight of those seeing 222 or more combined points.  So there's value with the OVER 216 here.

Andernee Simons has averaged 24.3 points per game in his last seven games in the absence of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.  But now McCollum (20.6 PPG) is expected to make his much anticipated return to the lineup tonight after being out since December 4th.  So the offense gets an added punch, and Portland's defense ranks 29th in efficiency giving up 112.6 points per 100 possessions.

The Magic have gotten both Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs back healthy recently and are a much better offensive team.  They have scored at least 100 points in 11 of their last 15 games and can hang with the Blazers on the offensive end.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 217 or more points in five of the six.  The OVER Is 24-9 in Blazers last 33 Monday games.  The OVER Is 8-1 in Magic last eight games playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 5-1 in Magic last six home games.  Take the OVER In this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -3

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA all season.  They are 26-18 SU & 28-14-2 ATS.  As long as they have had Darius Garland (19.7 PPG, 7.8 APG), Jarrett Allen (16.6 PPG, 11.0 RPG) and Evan Mobley (15.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG) healthy they have been dangerous.

Now the Cavaliers will take down a Brooklyn Nets tam that is missing their best player in Kevin Durant (29.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 5.8 APG).  They will have James Harden and Kyrie Irving, but they aren't as good of a team on defense with those two in the lineup, and the loss of Durant hurts them quite a bit on that end too.

The Nets have been grossly overvalued for weeks even with Durant in the lineup.  They have gone 4-6 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Nets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win by 10 points or more.  Brooklyn is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games following an ATS win.  Cleveland is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Take the Cavaliers Monday.

20* Purdue/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois ML -111

Illinois is 11-1 in its last 12 games with its only loss coming to Arizona, which may be the best team in the country.  I look for the Fighting Illini to continue rolling this afternoon at home against the Purdue Boilermakers on MLK Day.

While the Fighting Illini have been dominant in going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, the Boilermakers have been exposed by going just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have played only two true road games during this stretch and lost outright at Rutgers as 13.5-point favorites and only beat Penn State by 7 as 9.5-point favorites.  They were also upset at home by Wisconsin as 12.5-point favorites.

Brad Underwood has Matt Painter's number.  The Fighting Illini are 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 26 as 1.5-point home favorites, by 17 as 6-point road underdogs and by 8 as 8-point home favorites.  We are getting the Fighting Illini cheap today as just a PK at home.

The Boilermakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.  The home team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Illinois is 9-0 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better over the last two seasons.  Bet Illinois Monday.

15* Steelers/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -12.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are gassed.  They have played essentially six straight playoffs games.  They beat the Ravens by 1, lost by 8 at the Vikings after trailing 23-0 at halftime, beat the Titans by 6 after trailing 10-0 at halftime, lost 10-36 at Kansas City after trailing 36-3, beat the Browns 26-14 on Monday Night Football and beat the Ravens 16-13 in OT last week.

Those wins over the Titans, Browns and Ravens all come with asterisks and they barely won all three.  The Titans were missing AJ Brown and Julio Jones, the Browns had just been eliminated from playoff contention and it was Big Ben's final home game, and the Ravens were ravaged by injuries and playing with a backup QB.  The Steelers are one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory.  Give them credit for winning these games, but they're not very good.  That's indicated by the fact that they have been outgained in seven of their last eight games overall.

Of course, the one blowout loss during this stretch came in that 10-36 road loss to the Chiefs.  And keep in mind the Chiefs didn't have Travis Kelce plus Tyreke Hill was limited due to injury and only had two receptions for 19 yards.  Now Kelce and Hill are both back healthy and this is going to be another blowout.

We saw the Chiefs crush the Raiders 41-14 on the road and come back home and beat the Raiders 48-9.  Sometimes, it's just a bad matchup for the opponent like it is for the Raiders.  And this is a terrible matchup for the Steelers.  Big Ben is only good at checking the ball down with his weak arm and cannot match Patrick Mahomes score for score.  In fact, Big Ben is averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt in his last six games.

This Kansas City offense has hit its stride down the stretch en route to going 9-1 SU in its last 10 games overall with its only loss coming at Cincinnati after blowing a double-digit lead.  Unlike Big Ben, the Bengals have the firepower with Joe Burrow and company to match the Chiefs score for score.  The Chiefs are averaging 35.4 points per game in their last five games.

This is an underrated Kansas City defense as well that has allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of their 10 games during this 9-1 run.  The Chiefs are also the fresher team having played on Saturday last week while the Steelers played on Sunday.  Again, the Steelers just don't have much left in the tank after going to overtime with the Ravens and playing so many tight playoff games here down the stretch.  The Chiefs are one of the healthiest teams in these playoffs as well.

Double-digit favorites are a perfect 5-0 ATS in the wild card round since 2003.  Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win.  The Steelers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.  The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last seven trips to Kansas City.  We get a playoff-motivated Chiefs team here that will dominate from pillar to post this weekend.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +3

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated wild card teams in the history of the NFL.  Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Dallas Cowboys.  They are also 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained eight of their last nine opponents during this streak.

The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason.  After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT).  They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT.  They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win.  It's safe to say the 49ers come into the playoffs now with a ton of confidence feeling like they can win under any circumstance.

Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense.  Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense.  They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP).

While the 49ers are one of the most underrated playoffs teams, the Cowboys are one of the most overrated.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on them after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their five wins came against Washington (twice), Philadelphia's backups, a Giants team that has quit and a Saints team ravaged by COVID.

The loss came at home to the Arizona Cardinals 22-25 as 6.5-point favorites in which they were outgained by 98 yards.  That's a fellow NFC West team.  The Cowboys also have upset home losses to the Broncos as 10.5-point favorites and the Raiders as 7-point favorites in their last 10 games.  They just can't be trusted to lay a number at home against a team as good as the 49ers.

The 49ers are expected to get LT Trent Williams back this week and he is one of the best tackles in the game.  He helps a 49ers offensive line that ranks 1st in the NFL in run blocking according to pro football focus.  Dallas ranks 22nd against the run according to pro football focus.   That's why this is a nightmare matchup for the Cowboys.  The 49ers will be able to run the ball and control the game.  Jimmy G likes to throw the ball over the middle, which is Dallas' weakness against the pass whereas they are great at defending the pass outside the numbers.  

Jimmy G will have Kittle and Deebo Samuel open across the middle when he needs to throw.  These are two of the most underrated weapons in the game.  Kittle has 71 receptions for 910 yards and six touchdowns this season in just 14 games.  Samuel has 77 receptions, 1,405 yards and six scores while also rushing for 365 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games.  RB Elijah Mitchell (963 yards, 4.7 YPC, 5 TD) is also healthy now after playing in just 11 games this season.

The 49ers feel like they are free rolling after last week's comeback, while all the pressure is on the Cowboys to try and win a playoff game.  Dallas is just 3-10 SU & 3-10 ATS in the playoffs dating back to 1996, including 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS as favorites.  The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games with a line of +3 to -3.  The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven January games.  San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight January games.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Suns/Pistons UNDER 215.5

Early afternoon Sunday UNDERS have been a great bet in the NBA for years.  The number is right to pull the trigger on this UNDER today between the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons.  This game will be played at a snail's pace and both teams will be getting after it defensively.

The Suns just got back DeAndre Ayton and JaVale McGee.  It's no surprise their defense has picked up their play with these two in the lineup.  The Suns allowed 95 points to the Raptors and 94 points to the Pacers in their last two games.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.

Now they take on a Detroit Pistons team that ranks dead last (30th) in offensive efficiency this season.  The Pistons have been held to 103 or fewer points in four of their last five games.  But they are playing better defensively, holding two of their last four opponents to 92 points or fewer.

Cameron Johnson has missed the last couple games for the Suns and is questionable to return, which is a big reason their offense has struggled in scoring 106 points or fewer in three of their last four.  The Pistons will be without three guards in Jerami Grant, Frank Jackson and Rodney McGruder today.

The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Suns last 10 road games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Pistons last five games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +9.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions have been grossly undervalued in Big Ten play of late.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming by 7 to Purdue as 9.5-point underdogs.  They upset Indiana as 5-point home dogs, upset Northwestern as 8-point road dogs and crushed Rutgers by 17 as 2-point home favorites.

Now I love the spot for the Nittany Lions as they won't be having a letdown.  Instead, they will be out for revenge from a 64-76 home loss to Ohio State as 5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are catching 9.5 points in the rematch.  Ohio State isn't going to shoot as well as it did in the first meeting, making 50.9% overall and 12-of-27 (44.4%) from 3-point range.

The Buckeyes aren't playing well enough to justify being 9.5-point favorites here.  They are 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They needed OT to beat Nebraska as a 9.5-point road favorite, got crushed by 16 at Indiana, only won by 8 at home over Northwestern as 7.5-point favorites and lost by 10 at Wisconsin as 3.5-point dogs.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking to much here.

Penn State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse.  The Nittany Lions are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as road underdogs.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.  Roll with Penn State Sunday.

15* Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +16.5

UCLA has not been sharp since returning from a COVID pause.  They were off from December 11th until January 6th.  They have returned and gone 0-3 ATS, winning by 18 over Long Beach State as a 26-point favorite and winning by 8 at California as an 8.5-point favorite.

Then on Thursday the Bruins lost outright as 9.5-point home favorites to Oregon.  The Bruins are playing without any home fans right now, so they have almost zero home-court advantage.  That isn't being factored into their lines enough.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Oregon State after a disastrous start to the season after making the Elite 8 last year.  The Beavers have been consistently undervalued in recent weeks, going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Utah by 12 as 4.5-point home dogs, only lost by 2 to Oregon as 4.5-point home dogs and only lost by 10 at USC as 14.5-point road dogs.  If they can hang with those teams, they can certainly hang with UCLA tonight.

Each of the last four meetings in this series were decided by 5 points or less.  In fact, UCLA hasn't beaten Oregon State by more than 7 points in any of the last seven meetings.  The Beavers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +10.5

I cashed in the Magic last night as 11-point underdogs in a 116-109 outright win at Charlotte.  I'm back on them again tonight as this team is getting healthier now and has covered three straight as a result.

In fact, the Magic have been extremely competitive of late against good teams as each of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  They just got both Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs back from injuries and could get a couple more big men back tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Mavericks, who have won seven of their last eight including a win at Memphis last night to put an end to the Grizzlies' 11-game winning streak.  But Memphis was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and it was a bad spot for them.  Now the Mavericks will have their letdown after ending the Grizzlies' winning streak.

Dallas is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Orlando is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games overall.

Plays against home favorites (Dallas) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent, with a winning percentage between 45% and 55% on the season are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Magic Saturday.

20* Patriots/Bills CBS Saturday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -4

The Buffalo Bills have elite stats that would suggest they are the best team in the NFL.  Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in handicapping NFL teams.  Well, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in allowing just 4.6 yards per play on defense and 14th in averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense.  Their +1.1 YPP differential is the best mark in the entire NFL.

The Bills also average 28.4 points per game and 381.7 yards per game on offense and give up just 17.0 points per game and 272.8 yards per game on defense.  They are outscoring teams by 11.4 points per game and outgaining them by 108.9 yards per game on the season.  Simply put, they are an elite team and should be more than 4-point favorites over the Patriots.

The first meeting in Buffalo this season was fluky as it was hurricane winds and the Patriots won 14-10 while throwing the ball just three times.  The Bills took that loss personally and have been a different team since.  After losing 27-33 (OT) at Tampa Bay against the healthy defending champs at that time, they have since gone 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games while outgaining all four opponents, including the Jets by 371 yards last game in a misleading 27-10 win.

That also included a 33-21 win at New England in which they got their revenge and outgained the Patriots by 140 yards.  Wind wasn't a factor in that game, and the Patriots had to try and do more than just run the ball.  Josh Allen threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns in the win.  Conversely, Mac Jones went just 14-of-32 passing for 145 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.

Jones is going to have to try and do more than he did in that first meeting in Buffalo.  Yes, it will be cold, but winds will be in single-digits which favors the Bills drastically.  The last rookie quarterback to win a playoff game was Russell Wilson clear back in 2012.  Jones is still a rookie, and just because he plays for the Patriots doesn't mean he is going to overcome this trend.

The Patriots are reeling having gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming against the Jaguars.  Jones and the offense are a problem, but is a defense that has now allowed an average of 164 rushing yards per game in their last six games.  The Bills have rushed for 161.8 yards per game in their last five games, so they can also run the ball at will on the Patriots if they so choose instead of relying on Allen's arm.  They have so many ways to beat the Patriots and are better everywhere.

The Bills are legit Super Bowl contenders with their elite stats and playoff experience gained the last couple seasons.  Last year, they made the AFC Championship Game.  That's important because home teams coming off a loss in last year's conference championship are 44-8 SU & 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 tries.  The Bills are ready to take that next step, and the Patriots aren't good enough to do anything about is, especially with a rookie QB up against a veteran stud like Josh Allen.

Buffalo is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games.  The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after outrushing their last opponent by 75 or more yards.  Buffalo is 9-4-2 ATS in its last 15 home games.  The Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC East opponents.  Take the Bills Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games.  They had yesterday off and are fully healthy and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days after a 114-109 win in San Antonio last night.  I really like this Cleveland team and have backed them with success all season, but this is a terrible spot for them and they need faded tonight because of it.

The Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +11

Houston should not be a double-digit favorite at Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They consistently exceed expectations at home, and I fully expect them to give the Cougars a run for their money tonight.

Tulsa comes in highly motivated for a victory as it is coming off three straight losses to very good SMU, Memphis and Temple teams all by 5 points or less.  In fact, seven of their eight losses this season have come by 7 points or fewer, so they are undervalued just based on their record.

Houston is overvalued after winning six straight coming in, but three of those wins came by 11 points or fewer and the others were against overmatched Lafayette, Texas State and South Florida teams.  Tulsa is 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS in its last 13 home meetings with Houston.  That includes outright upsets as 9.5-point dogs and 6-point dogs in their last two home meetings.

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Golden Hurricane are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as home underdogs.  Tulsa is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  The Golden Hurricane are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. good rebounding teams that average 4 or more boards per game than their opponents.   Take Tulsa Saturday.