|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-26-22||Air Force v. San Diego State +2||13-3||Loss||-108||114 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on San Diego State +2
The San Diego State Aztecs are quietly playing their best football of the season. San Diego State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. After winning 23-7 at Nevada as a 7-point favorite, the Aztecs gave Jake Haener and Fresno State all they wanted in a 28-32 road loss as 11-point dogs. They outgained the Bulldogs by 58 yards in that game and should have won, but gave up two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds in the final two minutes. They blew a 28-10 lead.
They were clearly flat the next week in a 14-10 win over UNLV as 5-point favorites, but that was a UNLV team off a bye that had just gotten starting QB Doug Brumfield back. UNLV just gave Fresno all they wanted two weeks ago, too. But the Aztecs put together their most complete performance of the season two weeks ago in a 43-27 win over a very good San Jose State team. They outgained the Spartans by 202 yards in the win. And last week they handled their business in a 34-10 win at New Mexico while outgaining the Lobos by 250 yards.
San Diego State finally has a legitimate offense this season with Jalen Mayden at quarterback. He is completing 65% of his passes for 1,533 yards with a 10-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9 yards per attempt in limited action and just recently taking over. Mayden also provides them with a dual threat, rushing for 209 yards and three scores at 4.1 per attempt.
The Aztecs have topped 417 total yards in four of their last six games. They still have a very good defense and do every year. They rank 34th in total defense at 340.0 yards per game and 31st in scoring defense at 20.8 points per game. They are 24th against the run, allowing 115.9 yards per game and 3.8 per carry on the ground and that makes this a good matchup for them facing Air Force.
The Falcons rely almost exclusively on the run to move the football, averaging 342 rushing yards per game and only 73 passing yards per game. That's why San Diego State owns Air Force because they are good against the run every year. Indeed, San Diego State is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. They cannot be home underdogs to the Falcons given this head-to-head history and how well they are playing down the stretch. Wrong team favored here. Bet San Diego State Saturday.
|11-26-22||Thunder v. Rockets OVER 232.5||Top||105-118||Loss||-115||21 h 46 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Thunder/Rockets OVER 232.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games overall while embracing the up-tempo style that is working for them. The Thunder and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in nine consecutive games and 241 or more in eight of those.
Oklahoma City ranks 4th in the NBA in pace this season. Houston ranks 10th in pace and will enjoy getting up and down with the Thunder in this one. The Rockets rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Thunder rank 22nd, so this sets up for shootout with little defense being played.
We saw that last night for Houston when the Rockets won 128-122 over the Hawks. That came after a 120-127 shootout loss to Golden State last time out. The Thunder won 123-119 (OT) over the Bulls last night as well. So both teams will be on tired legs, and that will affect their defense more than anything.
Oklahoma City is 10-1 OVER when the total is 230 or higher over the last two seasons. The OVER is 13-2 in Thunder last 15 games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Rockets last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 17-5 in Rockets last 22 games playing on zero rest. The OVER is 4-1 in Thunder last five games playing on zero rest. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-26-22||LSU -9.5 v. Texas A&M||23-38||Loss||-110||113 h 33 m||Show|
15* LSU/Texas A&M ESPN ANNIHILATOR on LSU -9.5
LSU is making a run at the four-team playoff and needs more style points this week plus a win over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to get in. The Tigers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with double-digit wins over Florida by 10, Ole Miss by 25 and UAB by 31. They also upset Alabama at home and went on the road and beat Arkansas by 3 during this stretch.
Now the Tigers should keep pouring it on a Texas A&M team that is just ready for this season to be over. The Aggies are 4-7 this season, including 1-6 SU & 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The lone win was a lackluster 20-3 home win as 32-point favorites last week over a UMass team that is one of the worst in all of college football. They lost their previous home game to Florida by 17.
I just don't see the Aggies being interested at all in this game, so that's why I'm willing to lay the points on the road with LSU. It might not matter even if Texas A&M shows up because they are that bad and that injured right now. We will get an 'A' effort from LSU, and that should be enough to cover this number on the road. Roll with LSU Saturday.
|11-26-22||Appalachian State -4.5 v. Georgia Southern||Top||48-51||Loss||-110||111 h 25 m||Show|
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Appalachian State -4.5
Georgia Southern opened 5-3 this season. They now sit at 5-6 and feeling the pressure of trying to clinch a bowl berth. I don't think they get it done this week against an Appalachian State team that is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt.
Injuries have really hurt the Panthers down the stretch. QB Kyle Vantrease isn't 100% and he is missing his two best playmakers at receiver in Burgess Jr. and Jones, who have combined for 93 receptions for 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. They were held to 17 points against Lafayette two weeks ago and 10 points by Marshall last week.
Now they face another great defense in this Appalachian State stop unit that has allowed just 24.5 points and 336 yards per game this season. They are holding opponents to 204 passing yards per game. This is a great Appalachian State offense that puts up 33.7 points and 440 yards per game. They should score enough to cover against this soft Georgia Southern defense that allows 30.9 points and 487 yards per game, including 229 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry. App State wants to run the ball, averaging 189 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.
Plays against home underdog (Georgia Southern) - a terrible defensive team allowing 440 or more yards per game against a good defensive team (330-390 YPG) after seven-plus games, after allowing 525 or more yards in their previous game are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Appalachian State is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards pre game. The Mountaineers won 27-3 last year and 34-26 on the road two seasons ago in their last two meetings with the Panthers. Take Appalachian State Saturday.
|11-26-22||Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern UNDER 61.5||Top||48-51||Loss||-110||111 h 25 m||Show|
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on App State/GA Southern UNDER 61.5
Injuries have really hurt the the Georgia Southern Panthers on offense down the stretch. QB Kyle Vantrease isn't 100% and he is missing his two best playmakers at receiver in Burgess Jr. and Jones, who have combined for 93 receptions for 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. They were held to 17 points against Lafayette two weeks ago and 10 points by Marshall last week.
Now they face another great defense in this Appalachian State stop unit that has allowed just 24.5 points and 336 yards per game this season. They are holding opponents to 204 passing yards per game. And the books are failing to adjust these Georgia Southern totals down because they put up gaudy offensive number in the first half of the season. This isn't close to the same offense, and we are getting value here on the UNDER 61.5 Saturday.
Weather could be an issue here too with double-digit winds and a 33% chance of rain. I don't think we need weather to cash this UNDER, though. Appalachian State is going to want to run the football and keep the clock moving to keep this Georgia Southern offense off the field. They shoud have a run-heavy plan after rushing 42 times for 207 yards against Old Dominion last week after rushing 40 times against Marshall the previous week. Georgia Southern cannot stop the run, so they will keep going to their ground game.
Nine of Appalachian State's 11 games this season have seen 60 or fewer combined points. Each of the last 10 meetings between Appalachian State and Georgia Southern have seen 60 or fewer combined points, making for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 61.5-point total. The UNDER is 10-1 in App State's last 11 games following a conference win by 10 points or more. The UNDER is 8-1 in Georgia Southern's last nine home games following an ATS loss. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|11-26-22||Southern Miss -3 v. UL-Monroe||20-10||Win||100||110 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Miss -3
Will Hall has a desperate Southern Miss team that wants to get to a bowl game sitting at 5-6 heading into their regular season finale. Hall has done a tremendous job turning around this program, and the Golden Eagles are much better than their 5-6 record would indicate.
The six losses have come to Liberty, Miami, Troy, Georgia State, Coastal Carolina and South Alabama. They lost by 2 to Liberty, by 3 to Coastal and by 7 to South Alabama. They even have a win over Tulane, which may end up winning the AAC.They have handled the teams they are supposed to handle, and they are supposed to handle LA-Monroe this week.
I question LA-Monroe's motivation this week after losing 34-16 to Troy last week to fall to 4-7, eliminating them from bowl contention. They had won their previous two games by a combined 4 points to stay alive, but now their dreams are crushed. I don't expect them to show up at all this week, at least not with the same intensity of Southern Miss.
LA-Monroe just isn't very good. The Warhawks are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards pre game this season and 0.8 yards per play. They have a terrible defense that allows 35.7 yards per game, and QB Trey Lowe and this Southern Miss offense are in line for one of their best games of the season. They will be able to run on a Monroe defense that allows 189 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry. And Southern Miss has one of the best defenses in the conference, allowing 24.7 points per game and 5.5 yards per play.
Southern Miss is 7-1 ATS when playing with 6 or fewer days' rest this season. The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a cover where they straight up as an underdog. Monroe is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after winning two of its last three games. Southern Miss is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Golden Eagles are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Take Southern Miss Saturday.
|11-26-22||Iowa State +10.5 v. TCU||Top||14-62||Loss||-110||109 h 25 m||Show|
25* College Football DOG OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +10.5
For starters, Iowa State might be the best 4-7 team in the history of college football. TCU might be the worst 11-0 team in the history of college football. Couple those two facts in my opinion and we are getting tremendous line value with the Cyclones as double-digit underdogs to the fraudulent Horned Frogs.
Iowa State averages 374.3 yards per game on offense and allows 277.6 yards per game on defense, outgaining opponents by nearly 100 yards per game. TCU averages 482.5 yards per game on offense and allows 388.5 yards per game on defense, outgaining teams by nearly 100 yards per game as well. Iowa State actually has the better yardage differential, though!
The difference in the records is that Iowa State has had terrible luck in close games, while TCU has had tremendous luck. Six of Iowa State's seven losses have come by 7 points or less this season. Eight of TCU's 11 wins this season have come by 10 points or fewer. The exceptions were Colorado, Tarleton State and an Oklahoma team that lost their starting QB.
Iowa State will treat this as their National Championship game with a chance to knock off TCU from the unbeaten ranks since the Cyclones aren't going to a bowl. These players love Matt Campbell and will show up for him this week. TCU has all the pressure on its shoulders needing to win this game if they want to make the four-team playoff. I'll gladly back the care-free team than the tight Horned Frogs in this one.
Iowa State is one of the originators of the 3-3-5 defense that stops spread attacks. They give up just 172 passing yards per game this season. They will keep TCU's aerial assault in check by dropping eight back into coverage and getting pressure with just three. They've done it for years under Campbell, and this will be the best defense that TCU has faced yet this season.
The Cyclones are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a loss. Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with TCU. Campbell is 23-13 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Iowa State. He rarely loses by double-digits, and he won't be losing by double-digits Saturday. Don't be surprised to see the Cyclones pull the upset so make sure you sprinkle a little on the money line, too. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|11-26-22||Tarleton St +7.5 v. Wichita State||71-83||Loss||-110||13 h 19 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tarleton State +7.5
Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level. He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.
Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season. The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49. And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now. The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.
Tarleton followed it up with a 95-49 win over Kansas Christian, an 89-81 upset win over Belmont and a 70-54 upset win over Boston College. The Texans then hung tough with Drake in a 7-point loss at 7-point dogs, and that's a Drake team that most expect to win the Missouri Valley. Now the Texans are a 7-point dog to a Wichita State team that lost three double-digit scores and another who averaged 8.4 PPG and 5.0 RPG last season.
The Shockers returned only one starter and are rebuilding under Isaac Brown, who is 31-19 in his first two seasons here. Wichita State lost 57-66 as 16-point home favorites to Alcorn State earlier this season and is just 3-2 this year. The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Shockers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Take Tarleton State Saturday.
|11-26-22||Auburn +22 v. Alabama||Top||27-49||Push||0||109 h 1 m||Show|
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn +22
Alabama was eliminated from playoff contention with a 31-32 loss at LSU three games ago. They were flat in 6-point win over Ole Miss as double-digit favorites the next week, and last week they were flat again in a 34-0 win over Austin Peay as 44-point favorites. They won't be that motivated to beat Auburn either knowing they won't be going to the four-team playoff.
Bryce Young is still nursing a shoulder injury and this Alabama offense has been held in check because of it. They have scored 34 or fewer points in four consecutive games. I expect Auburn to hold them to 34 or fewer too, which is going to make it tough for Alabama to cover this massive 22-point spread.
I know I'm going to get an 'A' effort from Auburn, which wants to make a bowl game at 5-6 this season. These players absolutely love former player Cadillac Williams, their interim head coach. They have showed up every week the past five weeks in going 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They only lost by 14 at Ole Miss, by 14 to Arkansas, by 6 (OT) at Mississippi State, beat Texas A&M by 3 at home and crushed Western Kentucky by 24 last week.
Auburn has rushed for an average of 252.4 yards per game in its last five games. These players have really bought in to Williams wanting to run the football, which can be expected from a former running back. Running the ball also shortens games and makes it easier for them to be competitive, and that will work in their favor in trying to cover this massive 22-point spread this week.
Alabama isn't as good against the run as it has been in the past. The Crimson Tide have allowed at least 182 rushing yards in four of their last seven games. So I have no doubt Auburn will have enough success on the ground to be able to move the ball and score points, while also keeping Young and this Alabama offense off the field for long stretches.
Alabama is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall. The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in November. This is too big of a spread for an Alabama team that is lacking motivation as they are used to being in contention for the four-team playoff. They don't have much to play for but pride, and they aren't used to playing for just pride. It has shown the past two weeks and will show again this week. Auburn is the more prideful team and worth a bet because of it. Roll with Auburn Saturday.
|11-26-22||Hawaii +15.5 v. San Jose State||Top||14-27||Win||100||109 h 54 m||Show|
20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Hawaii +15.5
First-year head coach Timmy Chang has quietly done a great job of improving the Rainbow Warriors as the season has gone on. That's evident by the fact that Hawaii is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. In those seven games, they have just one loss by more than 7 points, which was to Fresno State which may be the best team in the Mountain West. The Rainbow Warriors even upset UNLV 31-25 at home as 11-point dogs last week.
San Jose State is not one of the best teams in the Mountain West. The Spartans are really lacking motivation here down the stretch and it's showing. They clinched a bowl berth after a 6-2 start and have been playing terrible for weeks. They are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with their two wins coming over Nevada by 7 as 24.5-point home favorites and Colorado State by 12 as 24-point home favorites. If those two teams can stay within 12 points of San Jose State on the road, Hawaii certainly can too.
This San Jose State defense has total fallen apart. They allowed 28 points and 303 yards to Nevada, 16 points and 448 yards to Colorado State, 43 points and 445 yards to San Diego State and 35 points and 430 yards to Utah State in their last four games. Hawaii has averaged 32.5 points per game its past two games and will score enough points to stay within this number against an unmotivated SJSU squad.
Plays against home teams (San Jose State) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more total points in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Each of the last five meetings in this head-to-head series have been decided by 11 points or fewer.
San Jose State is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 games following two consecutive road losses. The Spartans are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Rainbow Warriors are 8-1 ATS in their last nine conference games. Bet Hawaii Saturday.
|11-26-22||UTEP +18 v. UTSA||Top||31-34||Win||100||109 h 54 m||Show|
20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on UTEP +18
The UTSA Roadrunners punched their ticket into the Conference USA Championship Game for second consecutive season with a 41-7 beat down of Rice last week. That was their second consecutive blowout win against overmatched competition. It's now time to 'sell high' on the Roadrunners this week.
They won't be motivated at all to bury UTEP this week. They will be looking ahead to the Conference USA Championship and trying to keep everyone healthy. Expect their game plan to be very vanilla. They'd be more than happy to just get out of here with a win. They aren't going to be trying to run up the score.
We saw what happened last year with UTSA already clinching a spot in the title game in the final week. They went on the road and lost outright 23-45 at North Texas as 10-point favorites. It's also worth noting the Roadrunners have faced three straight backup quarterbacks and may be facing a 4th in a row this week, so their numbers are misleading.
UTEP sits at 5-6 and in need of a win to make a bowl game. That makes it very easy to figure out which one of these teams will be more motivated. I also like the fact that UTEP is the fresher team coming off a 40-6 victory over Florida International last week after having a bye the previous week. UTSA will be playing for a 4th consecutive week.
UTEP head coach Dimel has kept quiet about who his starting quarterback will be this week. Gavin Hardison sat last week with an injury, and backup Calvin Brownholtz balled out. He led this UTEP offense to 525 yards while completing 12 of 18 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 31 yards and score. He is a big, physical QB and I expect the Miners to win the battle at the line is scrimmage. It's a competitive advantage for them to not name a starter, and I think either can get the job done here and keep this game close.
There's not as much difference between these teams as this line would indicate even when you don't factor in motivation. UTEP is outgaining teams by 36 yards per game while UTSA is outgaining its opponents by 82 yards per game on the season. That's only a 46-yard edge in UTSA's favor.
UTSA is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games following a conference win by 10 points or more. Dimel is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses allowing 250 or more passing yards per game as the coach of UTEP. UTSA allows 400 yards per game including 260 passing, so the back door is going to be open if need be, but I don't think we are are going to need it. The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet UTEP Saturday.
|11-26-22||Kent State v. Buffalo -4||30-27||Loss||-110||106 h 23 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo -4
I love the spot for Buffalo this week. They are trying to become bowl eligible with a win over Kent State. They had their game against Akron cancelled last week due to weather and don't want to have to make that game up to become bowl eligible. They want to handle their business here Saturday.
The Bulls come in rested and ready to go having last played on November 9th. It's safe to say we are going to get an 'A' effort from the Bulls here. They have been great at home this season going 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with wins by 4 over Miami Ohio and by 7 over Toledo, which are two of the best teams in the MAC with both bowl eligible.
Kent State just lost a 24-31 heartbreaker to Eastern Michigan last week to fall to 4-7 this season, eliminating them from bowl contention. They led 17-7 at halftime, but star QB Collin Schlee was injured right before halftime and it was all downhill from there without him. Backup Kargman went 7-of-19 for 91 yards in his absence, and he isn't the dual-threat that Schlee is.
Schlee is very much questionable for this game and I don't expect him to play. He has thrown for 2,095 yards with a 13-to-5 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 448 yards and four scorers. Backup Kargman is only completing 46.2% of his passes and has -19 rushing yards. Kent State won't even be competitive without Schlee, but they might not be competitive either way considering their bowl hopes were crushed last week and they have nothing to play for.
Kent State is 1-7 ATS in games played on turf this season. The Golden Flashes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games. The Bulls are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 home games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. I'll gladly back the rested home team with a lot more to play for this week in the Bulls. Bet Buffalo Saturday.
|11-25-22||Jazz v. Warriors OVER 237.5||Top||118-129||Win||100||19 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Jazz/Warriors OVER 237.5
Both the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors are dead nuts OVER teams. The Warriors rank 1st in pace this season while the Jazz rank 10th. The Warriors rank 12th in offensive efficiency while the Jazz rank 6th. The Warriors rank 25th in defensive efficiency while the Jazz rank 23rd.
The Jazz have scored at least 114 points in four consecutive games, while allowing at least 113 points in eight of their last nine games overall. The Warriors have allowed 120 or more points in four of their last seven, while scoring at least 119 points in four of their last six.
The OVER is 4-0 in Jazz last four games overall. The OVER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-25-22||Nets v. Pacers OVER 235.5||117-128||Win||100||17 h 47 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Nets/Pacers OVER 235.5
Kyrie Irving is back for the Nets and they are a dead nuts OVER team with him in the lineup. He is one of the best scorers in the NBA and one of the worst defenders. The Nets are about as healthy as they have been all season.
The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team too and will control the tempo playing at home. They like to get up and down ranking 4th in the NBA in pace this season. Indiana is 10th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency as Rick Carlisle loves playing this style and coaching little defense.
The OVER is 22-9 in Pacers last 31 home games. The OVER is 25-6-1 in the last 32 meetings in Indiana. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-25-22||Bulls v. Thunder OVER 234.5||Top||119-123||Win||100||17 h 46 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Thunder OVER 234.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall while embracing the up-tempo style that is working for them. The Thunder and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in eight consecutive games and 241 or more in seven of those.
The Chicago Bulls are rolling offensively right now beating Boston 121-107 two games back and Milwaukee 118-113 last game. They will be more than willing to get in a shootout with the Thunder tonight, who will force their hand as they rank 4th in pace this season.
The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oklahoma City. The OVER is 12-2 in Thunder last 14 games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-25-22||Kings +8 v. Celtics||104-122||Loss||-110||17 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +8
The Sacramento Kings are grossly undervalued right now. They are 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They will relish this opportunity to go into Boston and take on the defending Eastern Conference champs to try and pull off the upset. They may not get it done, but getting 8 points with the Kings is too much given their current form.
Boston is also playing well having won 10 of their last 11 games overall. Five of those wins were by single-digits plus an upset 14-point loss at Chicago two games back. They have mostly feasted on a easy schedule during this stretch and are overvalued as a result.
Boston is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 home games following a win by 10 points or more. Sacramento is 10-2 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season. The Kings are 8-1 ATS vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season. Sacramento is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 road games. The Kings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games playing on one days' rest. Take the Kings Friday.
|11-25-22||Lakers v. Spurs OVER 227.5||Top||105-94||Loss||-110||17 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Spurs OVER 227.5
Both the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs are dead nuts OVER teams. The Lakers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season while the Spurs rank 6th in pace. The Spurs rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency this season as well.
The Lakers recently got Dennis Schroeder back to help them out offensively. They are likely to get back LeBron tonight too, and their best defensive in Patrick Beverly has been suspended for three games. All of those things will help us cash this OVER ticket.
Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (San Antonio) - after beating beaten by the spread by more than 6 points in four consecutive games in November games are 27-6 (81.8%) since 1996. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-25-22||North Texas v. San Jose State +9||69-54||Loss||-110||6 h 3 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +9
Tim Miles quickly turned around Nebraska. He's doing the same at San Jose State now, especially with so much veteran experience and his best player returning. The Spartans are off to a 4-1 start this season with their lone loss to a good Hofstra team.
The Spartans should not be this big of underdogs to North Texas when you look at what the Mean Green have done so far. They did beat Fresno by 9 and Paul Quinn, but they lost by 30 as 10.5-point dogs to St. Mary's and nearly lost outright to Southern Nazarene in a 53-47 home win. Those two results are very concerning for this inexperienced team.
The Mean Green are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. North Texas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win. San Jose State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games away from home after going over the total in its previous game. These three trends combine for an 18-0 system backing the Spartans. Roll with San Jose State Friday.
|11-25-22||North Carolina -5 v. Iowa State||Top||65-70||Loss||-110||6 h 3 m||Show|
20* UNC/Iowa State ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina -5
We are getting No. 1 ranked North Carolina at a discount today because they have opened 5-0 SU but only 1-4 ATS. And they are coming off an 89-81 win over a pesky Portland team as 14.5-point favorites yesterday in what was basically a home game for them being played in Portland. Now we get the Tar Heels as a single-digit favorite for the first time this season, and we'll take advantage.
Iowa State is overvalued off a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season. They played three cupcakes in IUPUI, North Carolina A&T and Wisconsin-Milwaukee to open the season. They did beat Villanova 81-79 (OT) yesterday, but that's a down Villanova team that already has three upset losses this season.
Now this is a tough spot for Iowa State after needing OT yesterday. Four starters played more than 35 minutes for the Cyclones yesterday. They won't have much left in the tank for the Tar Heels, who can run them out of the gym and take advantage of their tired legs.
The Tar Heels are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. UNC is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss. Bet North Carolina Friday.
|11-25-22||Nebraska +11 v. Iowa||Top||24-17||Win||100||85 h 26 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +11
A quick look at the head-to-head history between Nebraska and Iowa shows that we have to take the Cornhuskers catching double-digits. Iowa has won four straight meetings with Nebraska all by 7 points or fewer. The stats have been pretty even in every meeting, and the Hawkeyes have just had the breaks go their way late in games.
Nebraska won't be going to a bowl game, so this is their 'National Championship' Game. They would love nothing more than to beat Iowa and knock them out of the Big Ten championship game. It's a miracle the Hawkeyes even have a shot considering their numbers this season. Kirk Ferentz has worked miracles to get this team to 7-4.
Indeed, the Hawkeyes rank 130th in the country in total offense at 253.5 yards per game. They are getting outgained by 20 yards per game on the season. And how the Hawkeye s just lost their biggest weapon in TE Sam LaPorta to an injury against Minnesota last week and he will not play this week. LaPorta has 53 receptions for 600 yards this season and is the one players you have to worry about on their offense. His loss cannot be overstated here.
Nebraska continues to battle week in and week out under interim head coach Mickey Joseph. The Huskers gave Wisconsin all they wanted last week in a 15-14 home loss. They also only lost by 7 to Minnesota and by 6 to Purdue, which are three of the best teams in the Big Ten West this season. If they can stay within one score of those three teams, they can certainly stay within 11 points of Iowa without LaPorta.
Plays against any team (Iowa) - a poor offensive team (16-21 PPG) against a poor defensive team (28-34 PPG), after playing a game where 29 or fewer total points were scored are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Kirk Ferentz is 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Iowa, and 22-38 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. I don't think Iowa's offense can score enough to cover this big of a number. They are going to need scores from their defense and/or special teams to get there, and it's just tough to bank on that. Ferentz is very conservative and will make some decisions in this one that help the Huskers stay in this game as well. Bet Nebraska Friday.
|11-25-22||Missouri State -5 v. NC-Wilmington||54-68||Loss||-110||3 h 3 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -5
Missouri State struck gold in the transfer portal under head coach Dana Ford to reload following a 23-11 season last year. He brought in seven Division 1 transfers from places like Maryland, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Akron and Colorado State. This team is loaded again this season.
We saw that play out in their first two games with an 82-47 win over Missouri S&T followed by a very impressive 64-66 loss at BYU as 9.5-point dogs. They followed that up with a 75-51 win over a very good Middle Tennessee team as 2-point favorites. They should be more than 5-point favorites over UNC-Wilmington today.
UNC-Wilmington already has three blowout losses to UConn by 26, Oklahoma by 21 and UNC by 13. Their two wins have come against Allen and Mount Olive. Missouri State is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite. The Bears are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a win. The Seahawks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win by more than 20 points. Take Missouri State Friday.
|11-25-22||Toledo v. Western Michigan +8||14-20||Win||100||81 h 26 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan +8
Western Michigan continues to battle. They have played four straight games decided by 6 points or fewer. They won 16-10 at Miami Ohio four games ago, lost 13-9 at Bowling Green three games ago and lost 24-21 to Northern Illinois two games ago. They easily could have packed it in after that NIU loss as it dropped them to 3-7 and out of bowl contention.
Instead, the Broncos pulled the 12-10 upset at Central Michigan as 9.5-point dogs and outgained them by 104 yards. And now they'll be looking forward to trying to upset Toledo at home on Senior Day Friday. I expect an 'A' effort from the Broncos knowing this is their final game of the season.
The 'A' effort will not be there for Toledo. They clinched the MAC West title two weeks ago with a 28-21 win over Ball State. They laid an egg last week with a 35-42 loss to Bowling Green. And now they still have nothing to play for this week against Western Michigan as they are already in the MAC title game.
The Rockets rested stud QB DaQuan Finn in that loss to Bowling Green as he has been battling an injury here late in the season. They would be wise to rest him again. He is completing 59.4% of his passes for 1,943 yards with a 21-to-10 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 531 yards and eight scores. There's a big downgrade from Finn to Gleason at QB for the Rockets, and I just don't trust this team with questionable motivation.
The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Toledo is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. The Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. The underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Western Michigan Friday.
|11-25-22||Utah State +17 v. Boise State||23-42||Loss||-110||81 h 26 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah State +17
The Utah State Aggies continue to battle. They are 5-1 SU in their last six games overall to get to a bowl game. That includes an upset win over Air Force as 11.5-point dogs that started this run. Now they will be very much looking forward to the opportunity to try and take down Mountain West title favorite, Boise State.
I question Boise State's motivation this week. They just pulled off a narrow 20-17 victory at Wyoming last week that had a trip to the Mountain West Championship Game on the line. With their tickets already punched into the title game, I don't expect an 'A' effort from the Broncos in this one. That's going to make it difficult for them to cover this 17-point spread against the Aggies.
We've seen Boise State be in hard-fought affairs in their three games against bowl teams recently. They only beat Air Force by 5 and Wyoming by 3 while also losing to BYU by 3. Utah State is at least on Wyoming's level. They can stay within 17 points of the Broncos whether or not they were motivated this week.
Utah State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after having won four or five of its last six games coming in. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Utah State is 22-8-1 ATS in its last 31 Friday games. The Broncos are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a win. The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings. It's time to 'sell high' on Boise State this week. Roll with Utah State Friday.
|11-24-22||Mississippi State +3.5 v. Ole Miss||24-22||Win||100||91 h 9 m||Show|
15* Mississippi State/Ole Miss Egg Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State +3.5
The Ole Miss Rebels suffered their 'dream crusher' loss two weeks ago with a 24-30 home loss to Alabama in which they came up short in the red zone in the closing seconds. They swiftly got blasted 27-42 at Arkansas last week in a game that was a 42-6 game entering the 4th quarter, so even that loss was misleading.
Now there are rumors about Lane Kiffin possibly going to Auburn. He may have one foot out the door here. The Rebels had their chances of winning the SEC West and making the four-team playoff crushed with that loss to Alabama. They didn't get back up off the mat last week, and I don't expect them to get back up off the mat this week, either.
You know Mississippi State wants to win this game. Mike Leach hasn't beaten Ole Miss yet. The Bulldogs have a had a couple tough-luck losses under Leach. They lost by 7 while racking up 479 total yards including 440 passing two years ago. Last year they lost by 10 despite outgaining the Rebels 420 to 388 and throwing for 336 yards. It's clear Kiffin hasn't bene able to figure out how to stop this Mississippi State passing attack.
The key to beating Ole Miss is stopping their rushing attack. Mississippi State has the horses up front to do that. I also like the fact that the Bulldogs had an easy 56-7 win over East Tennessee State on Saturday, so they should be the fresher team coming into this Egg Bowl on a short week. They have the rest and motivation advantage, and I think these are pretty even teams overall, so getting +3.5 is a great value.
The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Rebels are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Leach is 33-14 ATS vs. good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game as a head coach. Roll with Mississippi State Thursday.
|11-24-22||Florida v. Xavier -1||Top||83-90||Win||100||15 h 21 m||Show|
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier -1
Sean Miller is 425-157 as a head coach including 123-48 at Xavier. He returned to Xavier this season and the cupboard was far from bare. The Musketeers returned four starters including three double-digit scorers. Miller is a master recruiter as well, so the Musketeers are loaded.
They are off to a 3-1 start this season with wins by 23 over Morgan State, by 22 over Montana and by 13 over Fairfield. They also lost to Indiana by 2 as 2.5-point dogs. That's an Indiana team that is also loaded this season and it's not a bad loss. It will serve them well moving forward
Florida's 3-1 start is much more concerning. They were double-digit favorites in three of the four games and only a 7-point favorite against a very bad Florida State team in which they won by 9. But they lost outright at home to FAU as 12-point favorites and only beat lowly Kennesaw State by 10 as 20-point favorites. It's a rebuilding year for first-year head coach Todd Golden and the Gators.
Golden is 9-24 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game as a head coach. Miller is 59-35 ATS in road games when playing just his 2nd game in 8 days as a head coach. Florida is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a win. The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Xavier Thursday.
|11-24-22||Giants v. Cowboys -8||20-28||Push||0||90 h 32 m||Show|
15* Giants/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -8
The New York Giants are finally starting to get exposed for the frauds they are. After a shocking 7-1 start to the season where all the breaks went their way late in games, they have gone 1-2 since with a 14-point loss at Seattle and a 13-point home loss to Detroit. Their lone win came at home 24-16 over the worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans. They were actually outgained by 20 yards by the Texans, too.
Last week's loss to the Lions was more costly than just one loss. They had six players leave the game due to injury, including top WR Wan'Dale Robinson. Both starting CB's in Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreu, S Jason Pinnock, C Jon Feliciano and RT Tyre Phillips also left Sunday's game with injuries.
Robinson was having a career game prior to the injury with nine receptions for 100 yards. Darius Slayton entered Sunday as the only receiver with more than 200 receiving yards. Kenny Golloday doubled his catch total this season with a pair of receptions. The secondary is a major concern moving forward. Starting S Xavier McKinney is already on injured reserve because of a hand injury suffered over the bye week. As of Tuesday, S Belton, T Thomas, G Lemieux, C Feliciano, CB Moreau, S Pinnock and CB Jackson are all questionable. Robinson has joined McKinney on IR.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys come in healthy and rested following a 40-3 beat down of the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday that allowed them to rest starters in the 4th quarter. They racked up 458 total yards and held the Vikings to just 183 total yards, outgaining them by 275 yards. The win really flash the potential of the Cowboys, which is clearly that of a Super Bowl contender.
Dallas ranks 7th in scoring offense at 25.1 points per game. Those numbers would be even better if Dak Prescott was healthy the entire season. He has led the Cowboys to 35.3 points per game in his four starts since returning from injury. This Dallas defense has been elite all season. They rank 1st in scoring defense at 16.7 points per game, 8th in total defense at 310.6 yards per game and 5th allowing just 4.8 yards per play.
The Giants are averaging 5.1 yards per pay on offense and allowing 5.8 per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play. That's why they are frauds and shouldn't be 7-3. One of those losses came at home to the Cowboys 23-16 with Cooper Rush at quarterback. So the Cowboys should have no problem winning by 10-plus at home this time around, especially since they are healthy with Dak back in the rematch, plus the Giants are missing a ton of key players that they had in the first meeting.
The Cowboys own the Giants going 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Dallas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play. The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. NFC East opponents, and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 division games. Dallas is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games overall. Take the Cowboys Thursday.
|11-24-22||Iowa State v. Villanova UNDER 131.5||81-79||Loss||-110||13 h 21 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/Villanova UNDER 131.5
Two teams that play at a snail's pace and play great defense square off today when Iowa State squares off against Villanova. Iowa State lost their best player to Texas in the transfer portal in Tyrese Hunter, while Villanova is without its best player in Justin Moore until January.
The Cyclones road their defense to the Sweet 16 last year in a miraculous run. They are defending at a high level again this season, holding their first three opponents to 45.0 points per game and 32.8% shooting. They should be able to hold this Villanova team in check, too.
Villanova has played a tougher schedule with losses to Michigan State and Temple already. But they aren't shooting it well at all with a 33.7% clip from 3-point range. They are in about as poor a shape offensively as they have been in a long time, and a lot of that has to do with Jay Wright retiring.
Villanova is 11-3 UNDER in its last 14 games vs. teams that attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game. Iowa State is 15-4 UNDER in its last 19 non-conference games. The Wildcats are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games as a neutral court favorite or PK. The UNDER is 7-0 in Cyclones last seven games overall. The UNDER is 8-2 in Wildcats last 10 neutral site games. The UNDER is 9-1 in Wildcats last 10 games following an ATS win. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-24-22||Bills v. Lions OVER 52.5||Top||28-25||Win||100||85 h 28 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Lions OVER 52.5
I cashed in the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns in Detroit on Sunday. I'm back on the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions at Ford Field again Thursday. These are two dead nuts OVER teams right now that are playing great offense and terrible defense.
The Bills rank 1st in scoring offense at 28.1 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 417.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play. Detroit ranks 8th in scoring offense at 25.0 points per game, 6th in total offense at 366.6 yards per game and 6th at 5.9 yards per play.
It's well known the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 28.2 points per game, dead last (32nd) in total defense at 415.9 yards per game and dead last at 6.4 yards per play. They just gave up over 400 yards to the lowly Giants last week and have now allowed at least 400 yards in four consecutive games. They just lost their top CB in Okudah last week and could be without CB LUcas, DE Paschal and DL Harris.
The Bills started the season with one of the best defenses in the NFL, but injuries have really caught up with them on that side of the football. After allowing 33 points and 481 total yards to the Vikings two weeks ago, they gave up 23 points and 386 total yards to the Browns last week. The Lions will have success moving the football on this banged-up Bills defense that is without S Hyde and could be without DE Epenesa, LB Edmunds and CB White this week. This is the healthiest this Detroit offense has been in a long time and is a big part of their three-game winning streak.
The OVER is 9-3 in Lions last 12 games overall. The OVER is 20-8 in Lions last 28 home games. The OVER is 6-0 in Lions last six games following a win. The OVER is 8-0 in Bills last eight road games vs. good passing teams completing 61% of their passes or better in the second half of the season. The OVER is 10-1 in Bills last 11 road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-23-22||Clippers v. Warriors OVER 222.5||Top||107-124||Win||100||12 h 18 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 222.5
The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team. They are playing no defense this season but their offense hasn't missed a beat. They rank 1st in the NBA in pace at 105.2 possessions per game and 25th in defensive efficiency. They are scoring 115.7 points per game and allowing 118.0 points per game this season.
This total has been adjusted too low because the Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. But those are also two of their best defenders and they tend to play slower with them in there. This is a deep Clippers team so they will still get their points, and I am certain they are a worse defensive team without those two.
That just means more minutes for poor defenders in John Wall, Reggie Jackson and Norman Powell who can all score the ball but play little defense. They will have to go to more of a small ball lineup tonight to match the Warriors anyway, which also favors the OVER.
Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going OVER the total in their previous game, a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 69-32 (68.3%) since 1996. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-23-22||Nuggets v. Thunder OVER 229.5||Top||131-126||Win||100||11 h 33 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Thunder OVER 229.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall while embracing the up-tempo style that is working for them. The Thunder and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in seven consecutive games, and if they get there again we'll cash this OVER 229.5.
Denver has been a dead nuts OVER team when they have had Jokic and Murray on the floor at the same time. Well, they're back now after having to sit out due to health protocols. The Nuggets rank 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and would be even better if they were healthy all season.
Denver and Oklahoma City have already played in two shootouts this season. Denver won 122-117 for 239 combined points at home and 122-110 for 232 combined points on the road.
The OVER is 11-1 in Thunder last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER is 7-3 in Nuggets last 10 road games. The OVER is 25-7 in Thunder last 32 games following a home loss. The OVER is 8-0 in Thunder's last eight games vs. teams that shoot 24 or fewer free throws per game. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-23-22||Pelicans v. Spurs OVER 229.5||129-110||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Spurs OVER 229.5
Both the New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs are great OVER teams. The Spurs rank 8th in the league in pace while the Pelicans rank 18th. The Pelicans rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Spurs rank 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.
I think the fact that both teams have gone under the total in consecutive games coming in has this total set lower than it should be. The Pelicans just played the Warriors without all of their best players in a 128-83 victory. The Spurs continued their terrible defense allowing 119 to the Clippers and 123 to the Lakers, but they only managed 97 and 92 points in those two games, respectively. They won't get held down again tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-23-22||Kings +5.5 v. Hawks||106-115||Loss||-110||10 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +5.5
The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA. I've been riding them a lot during their 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS run over their last 12 games and I'm going to continue to ride them tonight. They will be highly motivated to extend their winning streak to eight games.
This is a young, deep Kings team so I'm not concerned with them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here. They should still be pretty fresh considering this will be just their 3rd game in 6 days. They are expected to have all hands on deck tonight and are fully healthy. I just think they're a better team than the Atlanta Hawks right now.
The Hawks are just 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. They lost at Cleveland by 12 last time out, barely beat a short-handed Toronto team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back by 2 in OT, and lost by 25 to Boston at home in their last three games coming in.
The Kings are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games. Sacramento is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on zero rest. Atlanta is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Sacramento is 8-0 ATS vs. teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season. The Kings are 10-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season. Roll with the Kings Wednesday.
|11-23-22||Coastal Carolina +14 v. Missouri||51-89||Loss||-110||8 h 43 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Coastal Carolina +14
Missouri is a rebuilding team under first-year head coach Dennis Gates, who brought back just one starter this season. You wouldn't be able to tell that with their perfect 5-0 record, but that record has them overvalued tonight.
The five wins have come against one of the easiest schedules in the country, and they were nearly upset a couple times. All five wins came at home over South Indiana (by 6), Penn (by 7), Lindenwood, SIU Edwardsville and Mississippi Valley State. They were favored by at least 12 points in all five games and only covered two of them.
Coastal Carolina went 19-14 last season under Cliff Ellis, who has spent the past 15 seasons here and has 44 years of experience as a head coach overall. Ellis welcomes back his best player in Essam Mostafa (13.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG last year) plus two starters. Mostafa is averaging 16.3 PPG, 13.3 RPG and 2.0 BPG through three games and is a force inside.
The Chanticleers won their first two games by 44 and 63 points against overmatched competition before a 1-point road loss at USC Upstate as 4-point favorites. They will be refocused and fresh after that narrow defeat playing just their 2nd game in 12 days, getting plenty of practice time to grow together as a team.
I love Eastern Kentucky transfer Jomaru Brown (21.7 PPG, 61.5% 3-pointers) who was a great find in the transfer portal for Ellis. Linton Brown (16.3 PPG, 42.9% 3-pointers) is also proving to be a good find. Holdovers Josh Uduje (12.7 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) and Wilfred Likayi (5.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 50% 3-pointers) are also fitting in well with the newcomers. The Chanticleers are shooting 42% from 3 as a team.
Coastal Carolina is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a SU loss. The Chanticleers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss. The Tigers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a win. Missouri is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games following a win by more than 20 points. Take Coastal Carolina Wednesday.
|11-22-22||Lakers +7.5 v. Suns||105-115||Loss||-110||11 h 10 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7.5
The Los Angeles Lakers have quietly gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games overall to start playing up to their potential. That includes blowout wins over the Nets by 13 and the Spurs by 31. Now the Lakers are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 9 days and will give the Suns a run for their money tonight.
The Suns are struggling of late due to injuries as they are just 4-5 SU in their last nine games overall. They are without both Chris Paul (9.5 PPG, 9.4 APG) and Cameron Johnson (13.0 PPG). That's why I'm not concerned the Lakers will be without LeBron because it has been factored into the line too much, especially with this move to 10 since I released this play.
LeBron has been out the past four games and the Lakers played well in all four. They are forming some chemistry without him, and it will pay dividends down the road. I would make the Lakers a 20* play at +10, so adjust your bet size accordingly.
Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games when playing against a team that wins between 25% to 40% of their games. Monte Williams is 6-22 ATS in home games off a blowout win by 20 points or more as a head coach. The Suns won't be fully focused playing the Lakers without LeBron, either. Take the Lakers Tuesday.
|11-22-22||Syracuse v. St. John's -3||69-76||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* Syracuse/St. John's ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on St. John's -3
Mike Anderson is in Year 4 at St. John's and should have his best team yet. The Red Storm returned three starters this season and added DePaul transfer David Jones. The Johnnies are off to a 5-0 start this season with four wins by 15 points or more plus a victory over a solid Temple team by 6. That's a Temple team that has upset wins over Villanova and Rutgers already this season.
Jones (17.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG) is off to a fantastic start in his first season with St. John's. The three returning starters in Soriano (13.2 PPG, 11.2 RPG), Mathis (11.6 PPG, 55.6% 3-pointers) and Alexander (10.2 PPG, 5.0 APG) are gelling well with Jones, plus Illinois transfer Andre Curbelo (9.8 PPG, 5.8 APG).
Syracuse lost arguably its three best players from a year ago in Buddy Boeheim (19.2 PPG), Cole Swider (13.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and Jimmy Boeheim (13.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG). I question head coach Jim Boeheim's motivation at this point after losing both his kids as he enters his 48th season.
Syracuse lost 80-68 to Colgate as a 7.5-point home favorite already this season for its lone loss, while beating two very bad teams in Lehigh and Northeastern. The Orange did beat Richmond 74-71 (OT) last night, but that's a rebuilding Spiders team.
After playing an overtime game last night, this is now a brutal spot for the Orange. They will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, while St. John's will only be playing its 2nd game in 5 days. The Johnnies like to push the tempo and play relentless defensive, which will test the Orange's tired legs. All five starters played at least 31 minutes for Syracuse last night, including 42 from Girard III and 40 from Williams. The Red Storm are 7-2 ATS in their last nine neutral site games. Take St. John's Tuesday.
|11-22-22||Kings -2 v. Grizzlies||Top||113-109||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -2
The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA. I've been riding them a lot during their 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS run over their last 11 games and I'm going to continue to ride them tonight. They want to extend their winning streak to seven games, and they are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.
The Memphis Grizzlies have injury problems right now that have them just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games with their lone win coming against the Oklahoma City Thunder at home. They lost by 10 at Washington, by 11 at New Orleans and by 12 at Brooklyn.
While the Kings are fully healthy right now, which is a big reason they are playing so well, the Grizzlies are far from it. They're without the most underrated player in the NBA in Desmond Bane (24.7 PPG). JA Morant (28.6 PPG) is questionable tonight, and Jaren Jackson Jr. (16.0 PPG) is making his way back from injury and on a minutes restriction.
The Kings are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when playing on one days' rest. Sacramento is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 road games. Bet the Kings Tuesday.
|11-22-22||Creighton -1 v. Arkansas||Top||90-87||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
20* Creighton/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Creighton -1
The Creighton Bluejays are ranked in the Top 10 for good reason. This team is loaded under head coach Greg McDermott. The Bluejays are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS this season with one of their non-covers coming by half a point. They just blasted a very good Texas Tech team 76-65 last night.
The Bluejays have four players averaging double figures scoring and three of them shoot 42% or better from 3-point range. They are tough to defend. They'll take on a reloading Arkansas team that lost all five starters from a year ago. The chemistry for the Bluejays can be trusted much more than that of the Razorbacks early in the season.
Arkansas is 4-0 as well but against an extremely soft schedule of North Dakota State, Fordham, South Dakota State and Louisville. That's the worst Louisville team we've seen in decades as the Cardinals are now 0-4 this season with losses to Appalachian State, Wright State and Belmont.
The Bluejays are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % of .600 or better. Creighton is 7-0 ATS in its last seven neutral site games. Roll with Creighton Tuesday.
|11-22-22||Ball State v. Miami-OH -2.5||Top||17-18||Loss||-118||20 h 46 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio -2.5
Miami and Ball State both sit at 5-6 this season with a chance to go to a bowl game with a win Tuesday night. I'll gladly side with the Miami Redhawks, who are the better team and are at home here, so this line should be above Miami -3.
The Miami Redhawks kept their bowl hopes alive with a 29-23 win at Northern Illinois last week and have now won two of their last three games. Ball State has lost two consecutive games and couldn't even beat Ohio last week after the Bobcats lost their starting QB in the first half. They lost 32-18 and still gave up 429 yards even after Ohio lost the best QB in the back in Rourke. The Cardinals are starting to really feel the pressure of trying to make a bowl game and aren't handling well, while the Redhawks are handling it well with a veteran head coach in Chuck Martin who has been here before.
This is a great matchup for Miami Ohio. Both teams want to run the football. Ball State averages 152 rushing yards per game but only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Miami Ohio averages 146 rushing yards per game and 6.7 yards per attempt. I think these offenses are pretty evenly matched as Ball State averages 5.2 yards per play while Miami averages 5.1 per play.
The difference is defense. Miami Ohio has by far the best unit on the field in its defense. The Redhawks only allow 23.0 points per game while the Cardinals allow 27.7 points per game. Miami allows 369 yards per game while Ball State allows 406 yards per game. But the biggest key is these teams' ability to stop the run. Miami only allows 124 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry, while Ball State allows 190 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. Miami is going to win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.
Miami owns Ball State, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings. The Redhawks are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games. Ball State is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Miami. Bet Miami Ohio Tuesday.
|11-21-22||Northern Arizona +27 v. Texas||48-73||Win||100||11 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Northern Arizona +27
I cashed in Texas +1 in a 93-74 victory over Gonzaga in their last game. But I know a letdown spot when I see one, and this is the definition of one. The Longhorns won't be nearly as motivated to beat Northern Arizona as they were to beat Gonzaga. And that's going to make it difficult for them to cover this massive 27-point spread.
Northern Arizona is no pushover, either. The Lumberjacks returned all five starters this season and that chemistry is showing early. They are 2-3 SU but 4-0 ATS against a brutal schedule. They only lost by 18 at Michigan State as 21-point dogs, by 16 at Arizona State as 16.5-point dogs, and by 4 at Utah Valley State as 10.5-point dogs.
We've seen Michigan State beat Kentucky outright and only lose to Gonzaga by one. We've seen Arizona State beat Michigan by 25. So those losses look even better now. Plus, the Lumberjacks also upset UC-Santa Barbara outright by 9 as 9-point dogs. This team is grossly undervalued to start the season.
This game won't be played on Texas' home court either as it will be played on a neutral at Bert Ogden Arena in Edinburg, TX. Texas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games away from home following a win. Northern Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games. Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games. The Longhorns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Roll with Northern Arizona Monday.
|11-21-22||49ers -7.5 v. Cardinals||38-10||Win||100||22 h 35 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Cardinals ESPN ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -7.5
The San Francisco 49ers are quickly becoming one of the best teams in the NFL the healthier they get. After beating the Rams 31-14 on the road three weeks ago, they came back from their bye with a 22-16 home win over the Chargers. It was more dominant than that scored showed as the 49ers outgained the Chargers by 149 yards.
Speaking of dominant, the 49ers have dominant numbers this season. They rank 9th in total offense at 360.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.9 yards per play. The 49ers rank 1st in total defense at 280.6 yards per game and 3rd at 4.7 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 80 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play, which are some of the best numbers in the entire NFL.
The Cardinals are 19th in total offense at 333.7 yards per game and 29th at 4.9 yards per play. Arizona is 23rd in total defense at 357.6 yards per game and 21st at 5.7 yards per play. They are getting outgained by 24 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play.
Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Cardinals. They still don't know whether Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy will be their quarterback as both are banged up. Whoever is under center will be playing behind a shoddy offensive line that is missing several starters and cannot protect anyone. They will also be without two of their best weapons in TE Zach Ertz and WR Marquise Brown, and WR DeAndre Hopkins is questionable as well. They just cannot be trusted with all of these injuries right now, and their lack of depth will be tested playing in the altitude in Mexico City.
The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a non-conference game. San Francisco is 35-13 ATS in its last 48 Monday Night Football games. Arizona is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a good offensive team that averages 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season. The Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. NFC West opponents. The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. NFC West foes. Arizona is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 Monday Night Football games. Bet the 49ers Monday.
|11-21-22||Heat v. Wolves -8||101-105||Loss||-115||11 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -8
After a slow start to the season due to chemistry issues with Rudy Gobert, the Minnesota Timberwolves are starting to put it together. They are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall and would be 3-0 ATS against the opening line. They won at Cleveland by 5, at Orlando by 18 and at Philadelphia by 3 as closing 3.5-point favorites.
Now the Timberwolves are back home and rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 8 days. The same cannot be said for the Miami Heat, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 6 days. They are starting to wear down losing three consecutive games including an 87-113 blowout loss in Cleveland last night.
It's going to be another blowout loss for the Heat tonight. Making matters worse is they have been hit hard by injuries, so they are short-handed, which makes fatigue even more of a factor. The Heat will be without both Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro tonight, plus both Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent are questionable. The Timberwolves will run them out of the gym and put tempo to use as they rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season.
The Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall. The Timberwolves are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Miami. Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.
|11-21-22||Drake v. Tarleton St +7.5||Top||71-64||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
20* CBB Tournament GAME OF THE WEEK on Tarleton State +7.5
Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level. He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.
Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season. The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49. And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now. The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.
Tarleton followed it up with an 89-81 upset win over Belmont as 4-point underdogs on Friday. Yesterday the Texans upset Boston College 70-54 as 3.5-point dogs. That blowout win will keep them fresh for this 3rd game in 4 days, and it will actually only be their 3rd game in 11 days after having seven days off prior to this tournament.
Drake will be playing its 4th game in 8 days. The Bulldogs have been in three straight battles that went down to the wire too, and fatigue will be a factor as a result. They beat Wofford 80-72 as 12.5-point favorites, Buffalo 80-72 as 13-point favorites and Wyoming 61-56 as 5-point favorites. This team is grossly overvalued right now and continues to be as 7.5-point favorites over a Tarleton State team that is more than capable of winning this game outright. In fact, the Texans are probably the best team the Bulldogs have faced this season.
Drake is 13-23 ATS in its last 36 games overall. The Bulldogs are 7-16-2 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning record. Drake is 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 neutral site games. The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Bet Tarleton State Monday.
|11-21-22||Nebraska-Omaha +30.5 v. Iowa||64-100||Loss||-110||10 h 13 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Nebraska-Omaha +30.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season. It's time to 'sell high' on the Hawkeyes now as whopping 30.5-point favorites over a decent Nebraska-Omaha team. The Hawkeyes are coming off an 83-67 upset win at Seton Hall, which is a Pirates team with a first-year head coach and rebuilding.
Now this is a letdown spot for Iowa. They return home for Thanksgiving Week and won't be nearly as motivated to beat Omaha as they were to beat Seton Hall. They also the Emerald Coast Classic on deck against Clemson in Florida starting on Friday, so they will be looking ahead to it. That makes this a sandwich spot for Iowa, and I don't think they'll be 100% focused, which is going to make it very difficult to cover this 30.5-point spread.
Even if the Hawkeyes were focused it would be hard to cover against this pesky Omaha team. The Mavericks are 1-3 SU & 3-1 ATS against a brutal schedule. They only lost by 25 at Kansas as 33.5-point dogs and by 14 at Nebraska as 17.5-point dogs while winning and covering against Idaho and losing by 10 to Ball State. If they can stay within 25 of Kansas on the road, they can certainly stay within 30.5 of Iowa.
Omaha is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Mavericks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Nebraska-Omaha Monday.
|11-21-22||Magic +7 v. Pacers||Top||102-123||Loss||-110||10 h 3 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +7
I love the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 113-114 loss at Indiana on Saturday. Now they get their shot at revenge here just two days later in Indiana again. They go from 6.5-point dogs in the first meeting to 7-point dogs in the second meeting, so the books aren't even adjusting for the revenge factor.
Simply put, you're paying a tax to back the Pacers right now after they have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. But this is the perfect spot for a letdown for this young team, and I expect the Magic to win outright. Getting 7 points is just an added bonus.
The Magic have quietly been very competitive going 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They upset the Bulls on the road as 8.5-point dogs, upset the Suns by 17 as 7-point dogs, upset the Mavericks by 7 as 8.5-point dogs and upset the Warriors as 9.5-point dogs during this stretch. So they have proven they can play with anyone.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - off a home win scoring 110 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Indiana. Bet the Magic Monday.
|11-21-22||Magic v. Pacers UNDER 227||102-123||Win||100||10 h 3 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Pacers UNDER 227
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Well, this will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Magic and Pacers. They combined for 227 points with a 226-point total on Saturday, and now the books have opened the total a notch higher at 227 for the rematch. They haven't adjusted for the familiarity factor, and we'll take advantage and bet the UNDER.
The Pacers have been much better defensively with a healthy Myles Turner. The Magic are playing big ball right now due to injuries and it's working and keeping them competitive. Mo Bamba and Bol Bol both played over 30 minutes against the Pacers on Saturday and combined for 43 points and 20 rebounds. There isn't much playmaking at the guard position right now without Cole Anthony.
The UNDER is 5-2 in Magic last seven games overall with combined scores of 227 or fewer points in six of those seven games, including 217 or less in five of them. The Pacers have seen 227 or fewer combined points in three of their last four meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-20-22||Chiefs v. Chargers +6||30-27||Win||100||77 h 58 m||Show|
15* Chiefs/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +6
Let's just start out by looking at this from a line value perspective. The Chargers were 4-point underdogs in their 24-27 loss at Kansas City earlier this season. Now they are 6-point home underdogs in the rematch. There's clearly value on the Chargers given the change in venue from the first meeting, though they admittedly don't have much home-field advantage.
The Chargers are 'all in' this week. This game will determine whether or not they have a chance to win the division. They need this game more than the Chiefs do. That's evident by the fact that both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returned to practice this week and are expected to go. Allen has just six receptions on the season and has basically been out all year. Williams has missed the past two games. It's amazing the Chargers sit at 5-4 without these guys. But this is as healthy as they have been in a long time and it's going to make a major difference this week.
The Chiefs have small cornerbacks outside, so Allen and Williams can use their size to make plays for Justin Herbert. He doesn't have to dink and dunk it down the field anymore like he has been doing without these guys. Herbert has never lost as an underdog of 5-plus points in his career with a perfect ATS record in this spot.
The Chiefs are the ones with the injury problems this week. Patrick Mahomes is going to be without his two favorite receivers in JuJu Smith-Shuster and Mecole Hardman. JuJu has 46 receptions for 615 yards and two touchdowns and was really forming a nice chemistry with Mahomes before being knocked out of the game against the Jaguars last week. Hardman has 25 receptions for 297 yards and four touchdowns and is their most explosive receiver.
One hidden gem here is that Derwin James owns Travis Kelce. In his career when matched up against James, Kelce averages just 1.2 yards per target. James shuts him down, and he will blanket Kelce again in this game knowing that Mahomes is limited on weapons. I think this Kansas City offense will look lost this week.
The Chiefs haven't won any of their last five meetings with the Chargers by more than 6 points. And that 6-point victory came in overtime. The Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. AFC opponents. Kansas City is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games following a win. The Chiefs are 2-16 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games. They were fortunate to cover by 0.5 against the Jaguars last week as Jacksonville missed two field goals. They won't be so fortunate this week as I think Los Angeles wins this game outright. Roll with the Chargers Sunday night.
|11-20-22||Tarleton St +5.5 v. Boston College||Top||70-54||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
20* CBB Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT On Tarleton State +5.5
Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level. He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.
Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season. The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49. And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now. The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.
Tarleton followed it up with an 89-81 upset win over Belmont as 4-point underdogs on Friday. Now the Texans will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, so they are fresh and ready to go. Meanwhile, Boston College will be playing its 4th game in 10 days, so the Golden Eagles are far from fresh.
The results have been concerning for the Golden Eagles as they are 1-3 ATS with a 2-point win over Cornell as a 9.5-point home favorite, a 4-point win over Detroit as an 8.5-point home favorite and an outright loss to Maine by 5 as a 20.5-point home favorite. They should not be favored here. Oddsmakers are putting too much stock in their 15-point win over a bad George Mason team on Friday as 3-point underdogs. The Texans likely win this game outright. Bet Tarleton State Sunday.
|11-20-22||Nuggets v. Mavs UNDER 217.5||Top||98-97||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Mavericks UNDER 217.5
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Well, Denver and Dallas just played on Friday, and now they will play again two days later here Sunday. Dallas won that first meeting 127-99 thanks to shooting a ridiculous 59.7% from the field, going 46-of-77. That's not going to happen again.
The Denver Nuggets are going to be without their two best players in Nikola Jokic (20.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 8.9 APG) and Jamal Murray (16.5 PPG). Jokic is a walking triple-double and is the reason their offense has been so efficient. Without him they are going to be pretty lost on that end of the court. We've seen that play out in their last two games as they scored 103 on 43.9% shooting against the Knicks and 99 on 42.2% shooting against the Mavericks.
Dallas ranks dead last in pace at 97.3 possessions per game and will control the tempo at home. The improvement the Mavericks have made defensively under Jason Kidd has been remarkable. Dallas ranks 5th in defensive efficiency this season.
This total was set at 216 for the first meeting and after going over the total it has been set at 217.5 in the rematch. That's a mistake from the oddsmakers as they are not factoring in the familiarity factor, plus how well the Mavericks shot in that first meeting. Denver and Dallas have combined for 215 or fewer points in seven of their last 11 meetings overall. The UNDER is 41-19-1 in Mavericks last 61 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|11-20-22||Kentucky v. Gonzaga UNDER 156||72-88||Loss||-110||8 h 20 m||Show|
15* Kentucky/Gonzaga ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 156
Recent games by Gonzaga and Kentucky have oddsmakers setting this total higher than it should be. That has provided us with excellent value to pull the trigger on the UNDER as these teams would almost have to get to 80 points apiece tonight to beat us.
Kentucky went over the total in its last two games with a 106-63 win over South Carolina State and a 77-86 loss to Michigan State. But that Michigan State game went to double-overtime. It was tied 62-62 at the end of regulation for only 124 combined points.
Gonzaga is coming off a 74-93 loss at Texas for 167 combined points. You know the Bulldogs are going to be pissed off and focused on defense after that effort. Gonzaga had beaten Michigan St 64-63 in their previous game for just 127 combined points. Both of these teams are better defensively than they are getting credit for here.
Kentucky is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games after scoring 85 points or more. Gonzaga is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games after playing a road game. The Wildcats are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven games after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|11-20-22||VCU +10.5 v. Memphis||47-62||Loss||-110||6 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on VCU +10.5
The Memphis Tigers are known for struggling early in the season under Penny Hardaway because he always has a new players every year and the chemistry is an issue. The Tigers should not be double-digit favorites over VCU because of this.
Memphis opened with a 76-67 win at Vanderbilt, which is a rebuilding Commodores team. That was evident when Vanderbilt lost outright by 12 as a 16-point home favorite to Southern Miss in their next day. Memphis then lost by 6 at Saint Louis in a game they trailed by 14 with under four minutes to play. Saint Louis is good, but they just lost 95-67 to Maryland as a 2.5-point favorite following that Memphis win.
I think this is a great time to 'buy low' on VCU. The Rams went 22-10 last season and were expected to be one of the top teams in the A-10 this season. But they have opened 3-1 SU but 0-3-1 ATS, so they have been overvalued laying 22.5, 20, 4 and 4 points. Now they are an underdog for the first time this season. They beat Pittsburgh last time out and only lost by 4 to Arizona State, which just beat Michigan by 25 as a 7.5-point dog the game following the VCU win.
VCU is 20-5 ATS in its last last 25 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Rams are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. This is exactly the price range we want to be betting the Rams and it's a great 'buy low' spot. Take VCU Sunday.
|11-20-22||Cowboys -1 v. Vikings||Top||40-3||Win||100||102 h 47 m||Show|
25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -1
I love this spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week. They were coming off their bye last week and blew a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to lose to the Green Bay Packers. They will be pissed off from that defeat, and I look for them to take it out on the Minnesota Vikings this week. They were previously 195-0 when having at least a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter in franchise history.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings are feeling fat and happy from their OT win in Buffalo. It took a miracle fumble by Josh Allen on the goal line for them to win that game. They've had every break possible go their way this season, and at some point their luck is going to run out. I believe that to be this week against the Cowboys, who are clearly the better team and favored for good reason here.
Amazingly, Minnesota is 8-1 this season despite getting outgained by 25 yards per game and outgained by 0.5 yards per play. That's the definition of a miracle. They have the numbers more of a team that is below .500 than one that is 8-1. But they're 7-0 in one score games, which has been the difference. I don't believe this will be a one score game as I have Dallas blowing them out of the building.
Worst case these teams are even on offense, but Dallas has a way better defense. The Cowboys rank 5th in the NFL in scoring defense at 18.2 points per game, 11th in total defense at 324.8 yards per game and 6th in allowing just 5.0 yards per play. Minnesota ranks 29th in total defense allowing 381.2 yards per game and 28th in allowing 5.9 yards per play. At some point, their leaky defense is going to catch up with them, and I think it'll be this week.
Dallas is likely to get Anthony Barr back at linebacker, which will allow Micah Parsons to get back on the defensive line and rush the passer more. They are much better when he's rushing the passer than when he's in coverage, though he can do it all. Minnesota has some injuries in the secondary and is terrible defending the pass.
They run a Cover 2 shell to try and mask it, but Dak Prescott has the 2nd-best passer rating in the NFL against the Cover 2 shell over the last two seasons. The Vikings will be without DT Tomlinson, while the Cowboys get RB Elliott back this week, so they should be able to impose their will by running the football with plenty of success. That will open up things for Dak against that Cover 2 shell look.
The Cowboys are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game. Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 235 or more yards per game. Bet the Cowboys Sunday.
|11-20-22||Virginia Tech v. College of Charleston +5.5||Top||75-77||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Charleston +5.5
Charleston is clearly loaded this season. They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against a brutal schedule. Their lone loss came at UNC on the road in which they covered. They also beat Chattanooga by 7 as 4-point favorites, Richmond by 2 as 2.5-point favorites, Davidson by 23 as 3-point favorites and Colorado State by 10 as 1-point favorites.
The Cougars should not be underdogs to Virginia Tech. This is listed as a neutral court game but it's actually played on Charleston's home court. Virginia Tech is rebuilding this season and is overvalued due to a 5-0 start against a soft schedule. The first three wins came against Delaware State, Lehigh and William & Mary all at home. They then struggled on a neutral to beat Old Dominion by 4 as a 14-point favorite and failed to cover as a 3-point favorite in a 2-point win over Penn State.
Charleston is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog. Charleston is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game. The Hokies are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Cougars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with Charleston Sunday.
|11-20-22||Eagles v. Colts +7||17-16||Win||100||70 h 39 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +7
The Indianapolis Colts saved their season last week with a 25-20 upset win in Las Vegas. It was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed. They racked up 415 total yards on offense and outgained the Raiders by 106 yards. Three key moves made the difference.
The Jeff Saturday hire gave the team a boost and they seemed to respond well to him despite all the negative media attention. Keep in mind there are some proven assistants on this staff that are helping Saturday out in former head coaches Gus Bradley and John Fox. Matt Ryan returned to the starting lineup and he's a big upgrade over Sam Ehlinger. But the biggest key was getting star RB Johnathan Taylor back from injury. He rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown and looked like his former self.
Now the Colts at least have a mediocre offense, which is all they need to help out what is one of the best defenses in the NFL. Indeed, the Colts rank 11th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game, 4th in total defense at 307.0 yards per game and 5th with just 4.9 yards per play allowed. I would argue they have a better defense than Philadelphia when you factor in the schedule.
The Colts have played the 6th-toughest schedule in the NFL while the Eagles have played the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point. That's why Philadelphia is 8-1 and why the Eagles' numbers are inflated. They were exposed last week in a 32-21 home loss to Washington as an 11-point favorite on Monday Night Football. I always like fading teams after having a long winning streak snapped because there tends to be a hangover effect. And now they are going on the road on a short week and laying 7 points to the Colts when they shouldn't be.
The Eagles really miss DT Jordan Davis who is their best defensive linemen. Now they lost TE Dallas Goedert and could be without WR AJ Brown, who injured his ankle against the Commanders early and wasn't the same when he returned. Brown was held to one catch for 7 yards. Davante Smith also has a banged up knee and is questionable alongside Brown. Those are their top three receivers by a wide margin as they all have over 40 receptions, over 480 yards apiece and have combined for 12 touchdown receptions.
Philadelphia's passing game is going to be compromised this week at the very least. They will look to get back to running the football, but that makes this a great matchup for the Colts. They rank 2nd in the NFL giving up just 3.8 yards per carry this season. Only the 49ers have been better.
Indianapolis was only a 4.5-point home underdog to Kansas City earlier this season and won outright. Now they are 7-point underdogs to the Eagles. They can't be bigger dogs against the Eagles than they were against the Chiefs. This line should be much closer to Eagles -3. The Colts are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games as home dogs of 3.5 to 7 points. The Eagles are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit home loss. Take the Colts Sunday.
|11-20-22||Browns v. Bills OVER 48||Top||23-31||Win||100||68 h 18 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Browns OVER 48
I was betting on the Cleveland Browns and the UNDER when this game was supposed to be played in a couple feet of snow. That would have benefited Cleveland and their running game. But now that this game is being played in a dome in Detroit, it benefits the Bills more, but it really benefits the OVER more than anything.
Buffalo will now be able to be in its comfort zone, which is having Josh Allen drop back and make plays with his arm and his feet. This is arguably the best offense in the NFL. The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense at 27.8 points per game, 1st in total offense and 424.1 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play. Playing in a dome they are going to be pretty much unstoppable.
We saw what happened to this Cleveland defense last week playing in perfect conditions in Miami against another team that likes to throw it around the yard and has great team speed. They gave up 39 points and 491 total yards to the Dolphins. The Browns rank 31st in scoring defense at 29.3 points per game and 25th allowing 5.8 yards per play. They have injuries in their secondary and just lost starting CB Greg Newsome II to a concussion in practice in an accidental collision on Friday to make things worse. They have no chance of stopping Buffalo.
The Browns will be able to get their running game going against a Buffalo defense that is allowing 176.3 rushing yards per game their last three games. And they're going to be without their best linebacker in Tremaine Edmunds, who left the previous game with a knee injury. They were already without Micah Hyde and Tredavious White and could be without Jordan Poyer as well. All these injuries have had the Bills with a leaky defense in recent weeks.
But I do expect the Bills to have the lead for the majority of this game and Jacoby Brissett to try and have to play from behind, which will speed up their offense. The Browns have a better offense than they get credit for. They are 10th in the NFL in scoring at 24.1 points per game, 5th in total offense at 375.9 yards per game and 11th at 5.6 yards per play.
Let's just look at this from a value perspective. Books opened this total at 47.5 when it was supposed to be played in Buffalo knowing what the forecast was. It got bet all the way down to 41 as bettors caught wind of the forecast. Now they reopened it at 48, which is only 0.5 higher than the original opener in Buffalo. That makes no sense since this is being played in a dome. We'll take advantage and back the OVER in these perfect conditions for a shootout.
Buffalo is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry. The Bills are 6-0 OVER in their last six road games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Buffalo is 7-0 OVER in its last seven road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better in the second half of the season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-19-22||Colorado State +22 v. Air Force||12-24||Win||100||69 h 54 m||Show|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State +22
Jay Norvell quietly has this Colorado State team on the improve. They have gone 2-4 SU but 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall and are catching too many points here against Air Force. Asking the Falcons to win this game by more than three touchdowns to beat us is asking too much.
Colorado State has only lost one of its last six games by more than 12 points, and that was a road loss at Boise State against a Broncos team that is clearly the class of the conference. They beat Hawaii and Nevada, only lost by 4 to Utah State, outgained San Jose State 468 to 355 in a 12-point road loss as 23.5-point dogs, and outgained Wyoming 372 to 256 in a 1-point loss as 8.5-point dogs. So they have outgained Wyoming and San Jose State by a cobmined 249 yards the last two weeks, which is a massive improvement for this team.
Air Force plays a triple-option style that makes it hard for them to cover big spreads. They run the clock by keeping it on the ground. After covering against New Mexico as 21-point favorites last week, the books have set the number even higher this week, which is a mistake. New Mexico is the worst team in the Mountain West. Colorado State would crush New Mexico right now.
Colorado State has been respectable against the run this season allowing 155 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. They can hold Air Force in check enough to cover this number. Air Force is going to have a hard time scoring enough points to cover this number. They only average 29.5 points per game this season.
Air Force hasn't beaten Colorado State by more than 21 points in any of their last nine meetings, making for a perfect 9-0 system backing the Rams pertaining to this 22-point spread. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Jay Norvell is 15-4 ATS off a conference loss as a head coach. Roll with Colorado State Saturday.
|11-19-22||Seattle University +3.5 v. Portland||Top||80-68||Win||100||8 h 15 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle +3.5
Seattle went 23-9 in Chris Victor's first season with the team. Now he returns four starters as the Redhawks are absolutely loaded. That includes Cameron Tyson (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Riley Grigsby (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG). They also return three reserves that scored at least 4.2 PPG last year.
The Redhawks are off and running with a 3-0 start this season covering the spread in their two lined games. They won 85-71 at UC-San Diego as 3.5-point road favorites, 106-55 over Puget Sound and 83-71 at home over Portland State as 9.5-point favorites.
That gives these teams a common opponent in Portland State, which Portland beat 98-91 as a 15.5-point favorite. Portland is 4-1 this season but lost to the best team they played 65-77 at Kent State. The Pilots were supposed to be loaded this season returning all 5 starters from a 19-15 team. They they are without Chris Austin (14.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG last year) and could be without Mike Meadows (10.2 PPG, 3.0 APG), who is questionable.
The spot really favors Seattle tonight. They have had the last five days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, so they have had a ton of time to rest up and game plan for the Pilots. Meanwhile, Portland will be playing its 6th game in 13 days to start the season. They just played at Air Force on Thursday and only have one day to game plan for Seattle. They are at a huge rest and preparation disadvantage here.
Seattle crushed Portland 84-68 at home and 84-72 on the road in the two most recent meetings. The Redhawks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game. Seattle is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games. The Pilots are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. Bet Seattle Saturday.
|11-19-22||Cal-Irvine +3.5 v. Pepperdine||55-64||Loss||-110||8 h 15 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UC-Irvine +3.5
UC-Irvine returned three starters and four players who logged at least 20 minutes per game last season. The Anteaters went 15-10 last season and should be one of the better teams in the Big West. They're off to a very impressive 3-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season with a 69-56 upset win at Oregon as 15.5-point dogs and a 79-64 blowout home win over Loyola-Marymount as 4.5-point favorites. Not having a letdown following that Oregon upset was mighty impressive.
Pepperdine has been much less impressive. They are 3-1 against a soft schedule but lost 71-74 as 4-point road favorites at CS-Fullerton. Their 94-80 home win over Vanguard University was lackluster in their last game coming in. And I just don't think head coach Lorenzo Romar is very good.
UC-Irvine crushed Pepperdine 82-48 as a 10-point favorite last season. Now the Anteaters come back as underdogs in the rematch, which makes zero sense to me. They are the better team and should be favored in this game even if it is a road game as Pepperdine won't have much of a home-court advantage.
Pepperdine is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse. Roll with UC-Irvine Saturday.
|11-19-22||Wolves +2.5 v. 76ers||112-109||Win||100||17 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5
This is a terrible spot for the Philadelphia 76ers. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-102 upset home win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night. Joel Embiid played 36 minutes last night and six players played at least 30 minutes. They also lost Tyrese Maxey (22.9 PPG) to an ankle injury in that game and he is doubtful to play tonight. Tobias Harris (14.7 PPG) sat out last night and is questionable as well.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves come in on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. They are finally playing up to their potential too following up a 129-124 upset win in Cleveland with a dominant 126-108 win at Orlando. I expect them to win and cover their third consecutive game tonight given the terrible spot for the 76ers and the injuries. It's definitely a letdown spot for Philadelphia after a win over the Bucks, too.
The Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS in their last eight Saturday games. Take the Timberwolves Saturday.
|11-19-22||Raptors v. Hawks -5||Top||122-124||Loss||-110||16 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -5
I love the spot for the Atlanta Hawks tonight. They come in on two days' rest and will be pissed off following a 25-point loss to the Celtics. That followed up a 15-point win at Milwaukee in their previous game to flash their potential. The also want revenge from a 30-point loss at Toronto in their first meeting this season.
But while the Hawks are fully healthy right now, the Raptors are missing four of their top seven scorers. They will be without Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG), Gary Trent Jr. (16.6 PPG), Chris Boucher (12.3 PPG) and Precious Achiuwa (8.8 PPG). They also could be without Otto Porter Jr., who is questionable. The just don't have the horses to be competitive in this game without these guys.
Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Atlanta) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, a well-rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 61-31 (66.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Toronto. Bet the Hawks Saturday.
|11-19-22||UC San Diego v. Youngstown State -6.5||54-73||Win||100||6 h 15 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -6.5
Youngstown State is loaded this season with three starters and three key reserves returning. They went 19-15 last season and the Penguins are off to an impressive 3-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season. They won 92-81 at Canisius as 3.5-point favorites, won 90-72 at home over Tennessee-Martin as 8.5-point favorites, only lost 81-88 at Notre Dame as 10.5-point dogs and crushed Grace Christian 96-68 at home.
UC-San Diego looks like the worst team in the Big West this season. They went 13-16 last year and now lose leading scorer Toni Rocak (15.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) along with Jake Killingsworth (7.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG). They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season with losses to Seattle by 14 as 3.5-point home dogs, Sacramento State by 10 as 2-point home favorites and at Navy by 9 as 5-point road dogs.
The spot really favors Youngstown State, too. The Penguins have had the last three days off to rest up and game plan for UC-San Diego. Meanwhile, the Tritons just lost to Navy yesterday and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, a rarity in college basketball that these players aren't used to. Not only that but they went to OT with Navy yesterday, so all of their starters are gassed. Three played 37-plus minutes.
UC-San Diego is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after playing a road game. Youngstown State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games after a game where it made 78% or better from the FT line. The Penguins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games coming off two consecutive games where they made 50% of their shots or better. The Tritons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds. Take Youngstown State Saturday.
|11-19-22||Western Kentucky v. Auburn OVER 52||Top||17-41||Win||100||64 h 54 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Western Kentucky/Auburn OVER 52
This is my favorite total this week in college football. It's a non-conference game with Western Kentucky visiting Auburn. These teams never play each other so there is no familiarity. That favors the offenses.
Western Kentucky has played 11 games this season. 10 of their 11 games have seen 52 or more combined points, which is what this total is. The only game that didn't reach 52 was against a good UAB defense who was playing with a backup QB after losing their starter early.
Auburn is coming off a 13-10 home win over Texas A&M, which has one of the worst offenses in the country. I think that low-scoring game is providing us with value on the OVER this week. Auburn games had seen 52 or more combined points in four consecutive games prior to the Texas A&M game.
Also providing value is the fact that Western Kentucky has gone under the total in six consecutive games. They have had totals of 61 or higher in 10 of their 11 games this season. Now this is their lowest total of the season by far. The weather looks good in Auburn with temps in the 50's and only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation Saturday.
Western Kentucky should be able to throw all over this Auburn defense, while Auburn should be able to manhandle this WKU defense and get whatever they want on the ground. The Hilltoppers average 336 passing yards per game, and the Tigers have averaged 255 rushing yards per game in their last four games. Western Kentucky has allowed at least 161 rushing yards per five of their last six games.
The OVER is 8-2 in Western Kentucky's last 10 non-conference games. The OVER is 7-3 in Auburn's last 10 non-conference games. The OVER is 10-1 in WKU's last 11 road games after outgaining their last opponent by 125 or more yards in two consecutive games. The OVER is 20-5 in WKU's last 25 games after scoring 37 or more points in two consecutive games. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-19-22||Texas v. Kansas OVER 63.5||55-14||Win||100||63 h 28 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas/Kansas OVER 63.5
This total has been set lower than it should be due to Texas playing a 17-10 defensive battle in windy conditions against TCU last week. Texas had scored 34 or more points in seven of its previous nine games with the exceptions being against very good Alabama and Iowa State defenses. They will hang a big number on Kansas this week.
Kansas is a dead nuts OVER team. The OVER is 6-4 in their 10 games this season with combined scores of 53-plus points in nine of their 10 games this season with the lone exception being Iowa State and their top-ranked defense. They have combined with their opponents for 62 or more points in seven of their 10 games this season.
Texas has a poor pass defense that Kansas can exploit this week. The Longhorns have allowed at least 329 passing yards in three of their last four games. Kansas has a poor defense overall. They allow 30.4 points per game and 443.7 yards per game and aren't good at stopping the run or the pass, allowing 168 rush yards per game and 276 pass yards per game.
If the last two meetings between these teams are any indication, this will be another shootout. Kansas won 57-56 last season for 113 combined points with a total of 61.5. Two meetings back Texas won 50-48 for 98 combined points and a 64-point total. This total has been set in a similar range again this year at 63.5, and oddsmakers are once again making a mistake, largely due to Texas playing in a low-scoring game last week.
The OVER is 22-10-1 in Jayhawks last 33 games overall. The OVER is 20-7-1 in Jayhawks last 28 games following a loss. Both teams are bowl eligible and both teams can't win the Big 12. So I expect both defenses to relax in this one and for the offenses to take center stage, which are the strengths of both these teams. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-19-22||UL-Monroe +15.5 v. Troy||Top||16-34||Loss||-110||63 h 25 m||Show|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisiana-Monroe +15.5
Louisiana-Monroe kept their bowl hopes alive with a 31-28 upset win at Georgia State last week. They had a 4th quarter comeback and now have a ton of momentum heading into this week against Troy. They would love nothing more than to upset Troy and hand them their first conference loss this season to stay alive for a bowl before hosting Southern Miss next week.
Louisiana-Monroe has been hanging around in every conference game. They are 3-3 in conference play with the three losses by 7, 7 and 17 points. The two 7-point losses came to two of the best teams in the conference in Coastal Carolina and South Alabama, so they have proven they can hang with the big boys. They will hang with Troy, too.
After all, Troy hasn't been getting margin against anyone. The Trojans are 8-2 this season but they have just two wins by more than 9 points. Those were against Southern Miss by 17 and Alabama A&M by 21. They only beat Army by 1, Texas State by 3, Louisiana by 6, South Alabama by 4, WKU by 7 and Marshall by 9. It's asking a lot of them to get margin here against a motivated Louisiana-Monroe team.
The Trojans have been fortunate the last two weeks to escape with victories. They needed a 17-0 comeback in the 2nd half to beat Louisiana 23-17. They barely beat Army 10-9 last week. They can't be trusted as this big of a favorite with such a poor offense. The Trojans are scoring just 20.2 points per game in conference plays. It's going to be tough to cover this 15.5-point spread by scoring only 20 points.
Louisiana-Monroe has a passing attack that can keep them in this game for four quarters. They complete 68% of their passes this season and average 8.0 yards per attempt. They also have decent balance rushing for 127 yards per game, so it's not like they are predictable. Troy is extremely predictable on offense, rushing for juts 99 yards per game and 3.1 per carry compared to 274 passing yards per game.
Last year Louisiana-Monroe upset Troy 29-16 as 23.5-point home underdogs. And that was a way worse ULM team than this one in Year 2 under Terry Bowden. This team is on the improve. No question Troy is improved too, but they have simply been fortunate in close games. And Troy has all the pressure on them trying to win a conference title. Bowden is 10-2 ATS as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points as a head coach. Bowden is 10-2 ATS after a win by 3 points or less as a head coach.
ULM is 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings with only one loss by more than 8 points. The Warhawks are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games on turf. Troy is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 home games following three or more consecutive UNDERS. The Trojans are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after playing a home game. Troy is getting way too much credit for its 8-2 record and home-field advantage in this one. This game will go down to the wire just like most Troy games have this season. Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.
|11-19-22||South Alabama v. Southern Miss +8||27-20||Win||100||63 h 23 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +8
Southern Miss went 3-9 last season and was as decimated by injuries as any team in the country. The Golden Eagles have had better health this season and sit at 5-5 with an excellent chance to make a bowl game. They will be highly motivated to punch their ticket to a bowl game this week in their final home game on Senior Day.
I liked what I saw from Southern Miss QB Trey Lowe last week against Coastal Carolina in a 23-26 road loss as 5-point dogs. Lowe threw for 295 yards and a touchdown in a loss in what was his best game of the season. He and Frank Gore Jr. (788 rushing yards, 5 TD) can keep them in this game against South Alabama.
After all, South Alabama has had a hard time getting margin this season, so asking them to go on the road and win by more than a touchdown to beat us is asking too much. This is a Southern Miss team that only has three losses by more than 3 points this season. I think South Alabama is getting too much respect after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall against three bad teams in Arkansas State, Texas State and Georgia Southern.
South Alabama is 8-2 this season, but it has just one win against a team that is .500 or better this season, and that was a 20-17 win over Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5). The Jaguars have benefitted from playing the 129th-ranked schedule in the country. To compare, Southern Miss has played the 86th-ranked schedule, having to face Tulane, Miami and Liberty in the non-conference. They upset Tulane and only lost by 2 to Liberty.
I love a good defensive home underdog, and that's what we're getting with the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss only allows 24.5 points per game, 377.6 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play. Their defense can keep them in this game while Lowe and Gore make enough plays on offense to keep this one close for four quarters.
South Alabama is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 November road games. The Jaguars are 2-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a home win by 17 points or more. South Alabama is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 games following a win. The Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Take Southern Miss Saturday.
|11-19-22||Middle Tennessee v. Missouri State -2||Top||51-75||Win||100||3 h 16 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2
Missouri State struck gold in the transfer portal under head coach Dana Ford to reload following a 23-11 season last year. He brought in seven Division 1 transfers from places like Maryland, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Akron and Colorado State. This team is loaded again this season.
We saw that play out in their first two games with an 82-47 win over Missouri S&T followed by a very impressive 64-66 loss at BYU as 9.5-point dogs. Now they take on a Middle Tennessee team That lost their top two players from last season in Josh Jefferson (14.7 PG) and Donovan Sims (11.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 100 assists).
Middle Tennessee has beaten up on two overmatched opponents at home in Brescia and Rice. But in their lone road game they lost 68-76 at Winthrop despite being 2.5-point favorites. Now they're on the road again here and this will be their toughest test of the season. I think getting Missouri State as a short home favorite is an excellent value.
The Bears are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team that wins less than 40% of their road games. Missouri State is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games as a favorite. Middle Tennessee head coach MdDevitt is 0-6 ATS in road games after leading the previous game by 15 points or more at halftime as the coach of the Blue Raiders. Roll with Missouri State Saturday.
|11-19-22||Washington State v. Arizona +4.5||31-20||Loss||-115||62 h 54 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona +4.5
I love the spot for Arizona this week. The Wildcats kept their bowl hopes alive by pulling off the 34-28 upset win at UCLA as 20-point dogs. There was nothing fluky at all about that victory. Now they sit at 4-6 on the season with two very winnable home games against Washington State and Arizona State to finish the season. There will be no letdown following that UCLA win knowing they are so close to getting to a bowl, which would be huge for second-year head coach Jedd Fisch and these players considering they haven't been to a bowl since 2017.
This is a letdown spot for their opponent instead. Washington State just clinched a bowl berth, getting to 6-4 with a 28-18 home win over Arizona State last week. It's also a sandwich spot with the Apple Cup on deck against Washington next week. I don't see the Cougars being motivated at all to go into Arizona and win this game this week given the spot.
Washington State is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more. The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Wrong team favored here. Roll with Arizona Saturday.
|11-19-22||Kansas State v. West Virginia UNDER 54.5||48-31||Loss||-110||62 h 54 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State/West Virginia UNDER 54.5
Kansas State just wants to get into West Virginia and get out with a win. The Wildcats control their own destiny to make the Big 12 Championship Game. They aren't concerned about running up the score. They are going to rely on their running game and defense to go in and get a win, and I look for this to be a defensive struggle as a result.
Kansas State has the best running game and one of the best defenses in the Big 12. They rush for 215 yards per game and hold opponents to 17.5 points per game. West Virginia has an average offense that averages just 5.5 yards per play. They showed they could win a defensive struggle last week in a 23-20 victory over Oklahoma at home. WVU likes to run the ball too averaging 37 rushing attempts per game compared to 40 for Kansas State.
It will be cold and windy at West Virginia with the forecast calling for 30 degrees and 15 MPH winds at kickoff. Both teams want to run the ball anyway, and they will want to run it even more with it being windy. This has been a low-scoring series as it is. Indeed, each of the last nine meetings between Kansas State and West Virginia have seen 51 or fewer combined points. That makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 54.5-point total. Enough said. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|11-19-22||UMass +33.5 v. Texas A&M||Top||3-20||Win||100||60 h 55 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on UMass +33.5
The UMass Minutemen have quietly been very competitive here of late. They haven't lost a game by more than 28 points since Week 2 at Toledo and Week 1 at Tulane in a 32-point loss. That includes a 7-point loss to Eastern Michigan, an 18-point loss to Liberty and a 2-point loss to Arkansas State. The Minutemen won't be losing by five touchdowns Saturday, which is what it's going to take to beat us.
Texas A&M may not be able to score 35 points in this one. In fact, they haven't scored more than 31 points in any game this season. It is a lost season for the Aggies as they sit at 3-7 following six consecutive losses. How motivated do you really think they are to be playing this game against UMass this weekend? The answer is not at all. So lacking the motivation will make it tough for them to cover this big of a number. It will be a sleepy 12 PM EST start time and I don't expect many fans to turn out for this game at all, so there will be zero home-field advantage.
Texas A&M is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in two consecutive games coming in. UMass can run the ball averaging 160 rushing yards per game this season. Texas A&M allows 221 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. The Minutemen are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. SEC opponents. Roll with UMass Saturday.
|11-19-22||Navy +16.5 v. Central Florida||Top||17-14||Win||100||59 h 55 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy +16.5
This is a terrible spot for UCF this week. They are coming off three straight wins that went down to the wire, a 25-21 win over Cincinnati, a 35-28 win at Memphis and a 38-31 win at Tulane. They will now be playing for a 7th consecutive week and I don't think they have much gas left in the tank here.
This is the ideal letdown spot for UCF now taking a step down in class against Navy. UCF is guaranteed to go to the AAC Championship Game as long as they win one of their next two games against Navy or South Florida. They hold the tiebreaker over Tulane and Cincinnati, and those two play each other next week so one of them is guaranteed to have two losses. Knowing UCF has AAC bottom feeder USF on deck next week if need be will have them relaxing this week.
UCF won't have its normal home-field advantage this week with this game starting at 11:00 AM EST Saturday morning. It won't be nearly as rowdy as it would be at night. I expect a sleepy start to the game for UCF, and that will keep Navy in this game early which will be important. The Midshipmen can control the clock with their triple-option rushing attack and stay in this game for four quarters because of it.
Navy has no quit in them. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. That includes a 3-point loss at ECU as a 17.5-point underdog, a 3-point loss at Air Force as a 14-point dog, a 6-point loss at SMU as a 12-point dog, a 10-point loss at Cincinnati as 18.5-point dogs, and a 3-point loss to Notre Dame as 17-point dogs. If they can take all of those teams to the wire, they can certainly take UCF to the wire.
Each of the last three meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less. UCF won 31-21 as a 10-point favorite, won 35-24 as a 23.5-point favorite and lost outright last year 34-30 as a 15-point favorite. Navy ran for 348 yards on UCF last year and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes. That will be the key to success again this season. Navy knows they have the next two weeks off before playing Army, so they will put everything into trying to win this game.
UCF relies heavily on its rushing attack averaging 250 rushing yards per game. That makes this a great matchup for Navy, which only allows 87 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry. They have allowed 66 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games, which includes Notre Dame and Cincinnati. Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per rush.
UCF is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after two consecutive games where 60 or more points were scored. Navy is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game. The Midshipmen are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. UCF is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play. These five trends combine for a 41-2 system backing the Midshipmen. Take Navy Saturday.
|11-18-22||San Diego State -14 v. New Mexico||Top||34-10||Win||100||99 h 37 m||Show|
20* SDSU/New Mexico FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego State -14
The San Diego State Aztecs are quietly playing their best football of the season. They are just one game back in the MWC West division and still alive for the title, so there will be no letdown spot for them this week. And I look for them to continue their great play with a blowout victory over lowly New Mexico.
San Diego State is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall. After winning 23-7 at Nevada as a 7-point favorite, the Aztecs gave Jake Haener and Fresno State all they wanted in a 28-32 road loss as 11-point dogs. They outgained the Bulldogs by 58 yards in that game and should have won, but gave up two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds in the final two minutes. They blew a 28-10 lead.
They were clearly flat the next week in a 14-10 win over UNLV as 5-point favorites, but that was a UNLV team off a bye that had just gotten starting QB Doug Brumfield back. UNLV just gave Fresno all they wanted last week too. But the Aztecs put together their most complete performance of the season last week in a 43-27 win over a very good San Jose State team. They outgained the Spartans by 202 yards in the win.
San Diego State finally has a legitimate offense this season with Jalen Mayden at quarterback. He is completing 65.9% of his passes for 1,253 yards with an 8-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt in limited action and just recently taking over. Mayden also provides them with a dual threat, rushing for 171 yards and three scores at 3.7 per attempt. He threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 61 more against San Jose State last time out.
The Aztecs have topped 417 total yards in three of their last five games. They still have a very good defense and do every year. They rank 38th in total defense at 353.1 yards per game and 38th in scoring defense at 21.9 points per game. They are 24th against the run, allowing 117.8 yards per game on the ground and that makes this a good matchup for them facing New Mexico.
The Lobos don't move the football well, but when they do they do it almost exlusively on the ground. The Lobos rank 129th in scoring offense at 14.7 points per game and 131st in total offense at 238.0 yards per game. They average 128.8 rushing yards per game and 109.2 passing yards per game. Simply put, they are dreadful on offense.
New Mexico is 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall with seven consecutive losses by double-digits. I question how much this team even wants to play out the rest of the season considering they keep getting blasted week after week, so motivation is not on their side in this one. San Diego State has won eight consecutive meetings with New Mexico, including a 31-7 victory last year as a 19.5-point favorite. The Aztecs have held the Lobos to 263 or fewer yards in four consecutive meetings.
San Diego State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Lobos are 16-41-1 ATS in their last 58 games overall. New Mexico is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. Bet San Diego State Friday.
|11-18-22||Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 231||Top||110-121||Push||0||11 h 60 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Grizzlies OVER 231
The books are failing to adjust to how the Oklahoma City Thunder are playing right now. They have gone OVER the total in five consecutive games. They combined for 268 points with Milwaukee, 245 points with Toronto, 280 points with New York, 248 points with Boston and 241 points with Washington in their last five games.
They have been playing this way for a while now and it's working as they are 7-5 SU in their last 12 games overall, so they aren't going to abandon it. The OVER is now 9-2 in their last 11 games overall with combined scores of 228 or more points in eight of those 11 games. This total of 231 is just too low with the way they are playing right now.
The Memphis Grizzlies will oblige in an up-tempo affair. JA Morant will enjoy going toe-to-toe with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been one of the best players in the NBA this season. The Grizzlies aren't playing much defense this season as they rank 22nd in defensive efficiency.
These teams combined for 243 points in their most recent meeting. They have combined for 231 or more points in four of their last six meetings with the OVER going 5-1 in those six. The OVER is 7-1 in Grizzlies last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 7-1 in Thunder last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. OKC is 7-0 OVER vs. teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-18-22||Pacers v. Rockets OVER 236||99-91||Loss||-110||11 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pacers/Rockets OVER 236
The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Rick Carlisle. They have combined for 251 points with the Pelicans, 241 points with the Nuggets and 238 points with the Hornets in going OVER the total in three of their last four games overall. The lone exception was the 118-104 win over a Toronto team that was missing several starters and was handicapped on offense because of it.
Houston is also a dead nuts OVER team and will gladly get into a shootout with the Pacers. Houston ranks 28th in defensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 27th. Indiana ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace this season while Houston ranks 9th in pace. So we have two of the fastest-tempo teams going up against two teams that don't play defense.
Indiana beat Houston 121-118 in their final meeting last season for 239 combined points. The OVER is 14-6 in Pacers last 20 games overall. The OVER is 21-7-1 in Pacers last 29 games playing on one days' rest. The OVER is 7-2 in Rockets last nine home games. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|11-18-22||Indiana v. Xavier +4||Top||81-79||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
20* Indiana/Xavier FS1 No-Brainer on Xavier +4
Sean Miller is 425-156 as a head coach including 123-47 at Xavier. He returned to Xavier this season and the cupboard was far from bare. The Musketeers returned four starters including three double-digit scorers. Miller is a master recruiter as well, so the Musketeers are loaded.
They are off to a 3-0 start this season with wins by 23 over Morgan State, by 22 over Montana and by 13 over Fairfield. Now they host the Indiana Hoosiers and should not be home underdogs in this game. Indiana is getting too much credit for blowout wins over Morehead State and Bethune-Cookman to start the season.
Indiana is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 road games following a blowout win by 30 points or more. The Musketeers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Friday games. Wrong team favored here. Take Xavier Friday.
|11-18-22||Tarleton St +5 v. Belmont||89-81||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Tarleton State +5
This is a rebuilding year for Belmont. They lost four starters and brought back just one double-digit scorer. The Bruins are lucky they aren't 0-3 SU. They beat Ohio 70-69 as 6-point home favorites, lost 74-89 at Furman as 9-point dogs and were upset 75-77 at Lipscomb as 3-point favorites. They have no business being 5-point favorites over Tarleton on a neutral here given those ugly results thus far.
The Bruins are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Belmont is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss. Roll with Tarleton State Friday.
|11-17-22||Michigan -7 v. Arizona State||Top||62-87||Loss||-110||11 h 15 m||Show|
20* Michigan/Arizona State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan -7
The Michigan Wolverines are coming off a 91-60 win as 8.5-point favorites over Pittsburgh yesterday at the Barclays Center. They got to rest their starters late and also played the early game, so they will be the fresher team here against Arizona State.
Arizona State needed a second half comeback to beat VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point underdogs. That win will have taken a lot out of them. That was a VCU team that was without their best player in Patrick Balwin, who was a late scratch. They will get blasted tonight against the best opponent they have faced this season.
Prior to that VCU victory, there were some very concerning results for Arizona State. They only beat Tarleton State 62-59 as 14-point home favorites, beat Northern Arizona 84-68 as 16.5-point home favorites and actually lost outright at Texas Southern 66-67 as 11-point road favorites. So they failed to cover three straight games against suspect competition and nearly lost two of them outright.
The Wolverines are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 neutral site games. The Sun Devils are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 neutral site games. Arizona State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 non-conference games. Bet Michigan Thursday.
|11-17-22||St. Thomas +5.5 v. Montana||59-78||Loss||-115||11 h 15 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on St. Thomas +5.5
St. Thomas played its first season in Division 1 last season. It predictably didn't go great as they went just 10-20 overall. But they returned their two best players from that team in Riley Miller (15.4 PPG) and Parker Bjorklund (12.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG), who are both deadly from 3-point range. Head coach John Tauer added several Division 1 transfers and one of the best prep recruiting classes in the conference, lead by the in-state duo of Ahjany Lee and Kendall Blue.
St. Thomas is off to an impressive 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season. They blew out Chicago State 83-61 as a 9-point favorite and St. Francis 84-48 as an 8-point favorite. Chicago State just upset Valparaiso as a 9.5-point dog last night. But the loss may have been the most impressive. St. Thomas only lost 72-60 at Creighton as a 28-point dog. That's a Creighton team that is loaded and ranked in the Top 10.
Montana went 18-14 last season and did return a lot of their players, but clearly those players aren't very good when you look at their first two games this season. Montana lost 91-63 at Duquesne as a 3-point underdog and 86-64 at Xavier as an 18-point dog. Th Grizzlies have no business being a 5.5-point favorite against St. Thomas given what we've seen from these teams thus far.
The Tommies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Keep in mind this is a neutral site game in Houston as well, so there's certainly no way Montana should be favored by this much, let alone favored at all. The Grizzlies are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games. Roll with St. Thomas Thursday.
|11-17-22||Portland -3.5 v. Air Force||64-51||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Portland -3.5
The Portland Pilots are loaded this season and a sleeper in the WCC. They returned all five starters and 91% of their scoring from a team that went 19-15 in Shantay Legans' first year on the job. Chris Austin (14.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG in 2021-22) has yet to play this season and is questionable tonight, but they are still loaded even without him.
The Pilots got off to a 3-0 start this season with wins by 27, 37 and 8 points at home before going on the road and losing 65-77 at Kent State. But the Golden Flashes are one of the best mid majors in the country as they are 4-0 this season with wins by 26, 22, 21 and that 12-point victory. That loss to a very good Kent State team last time out has Portland undervalued tonight.
Now I expect the Pilots to bounce back in blowout fashion against Air Force tonight. Air Force went 11-18 last season including 4-13 in Mountain West play. They lost two of their best players from that team including leading scorer A.J. Walker (14.2 PPG in 2021-22). They return only one double-digit scorer.
To no surprise, it has been a rough start for the Falcons. They lost 58-62 at Bowling Green, only beat Delaware 75-71 at home and lost outright at home to Texas A&M Commerce 73-69 as a 10-point favorite. They can't be losing to Texas A&M Commerce at home and expect to beat Portland, which will be by far their toughest opponent to date.
The Pilots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a SU loss. The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Portland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games following a loss. Take Portland Thursday.
|11-17-22||Titans v. Packers -3||27-17||Loss||-115||25 h 34 m||Show|
15* Titans/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Green Bay -3
The Green Bay Packers saved their season on Sunday with a 14-point comeback in the 4th quarter against the Dallas Cowboys to win 31-28 (OT). I was not excited about it as I had the Cowboys, but I was impressed nonetheless. Dallas is legitimately a Top 5 team in the NFL and was coming off a bye. I expect the Packers to carry that momentum into Thursday.
Green Bay racked up 415 yards on a very good Dallas defense. They got their ground game going with 207 yards, and Christian Watson finally had his breakout game with three receiving touchdowns for Aaron Rodgers. No question the Packers now have a better offense than the Titans.
I haven't seen this fraudulent of a team in a long time. Tennessee is 6-3 this season despite getting outgained by 76 yards per game on the season. They have been outgained in eight of their nine games this season with the lone exception being Houston. They are living on borrowed time, and their luck runs out this week.
This is a terrible spot for the Titans. They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 12 days. They went to OT against Kansas City two games back and needed a red zone stop to avoid overtime in a 17-10 win over the Broncos last week. They are out of gas, especially when you look at their injury report. The Titans will be missing as many as five starters on defense for this game.
Meanwhile, the Packers are as healthy as they have been in a long time on offense. This is also a much better spot for Green Bay considering they just played at home on Sunday and will get to stay home on this short week, so travel is not an issue for them like it is for Tennessee. The Packers can load up to stop the run because the Titans have no passing game, averaging a woeful 148 passing yards per game this season.
Plays on favorites (Green Bay) - after covering the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1983. The Packers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Packers Thursday.
|11-17-22||SMU v. Tulane OVER 64.5||Top||24-59||Win||100||72 h 22 m||Show|
20* SMU/Tulane ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 64.5
The SMU Mustangs are a dead nuts OVER team. They have scored 40 or more points in four of their last five games while averaging 46.0 points per game during this stretch. And we have a total of only 64.5 here against Tulane Thursday night. The Mustangs are also allowing 38.0 points per game in their last seven games, so it's not like they are stopping anyone.
Tulane has a very good offense this season averaging 32.7 points per game. They also have a good defense, but they've played a very easy schedule of opposing offenses. The Green Wave were exposed last week in a 38-31 loss to UCF. They allowed 475 total yards to the Knights in the shootout loss.
Plays in shootouts is nothing new for these teams. The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings. Last year they combined for 81 points after combining for 71 points two seasons ago. In fact, SMU and Tulane have combined for at least 66 points in six of their last nine meetings. And we only need 65 here to cash this total. The weather looks good for this one with temps in the 50's and 3 MPH winds with a 5% chance of precipitation. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.
|11-16-22||Gonzaga v. Texas +1||Top||74-93||Win||100||13 h 46 m||Show|
20* Gonzaga/Texas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas +1
Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and went 22-12 in his first season in Texas. The Longhorns should be even better this season, which is saying something considering they were one of only 10 teams to rank in the Top 30 in KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings last season.
The Longhorns return Marcus Carr (11.4 PPG), Timmy Allen (12.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and Christian Bishop (7.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) as three starters. They bring ing Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunters (11.0 PPG) who scored in double figures 20 times last season. Sir-Jabari Rice was a double-figure scorer three consecutive years at New Mexico State. Freshman Dillon Mitchell was the No. 5 ranked overall player in the 2022 class.
Texas opened with a 72-57 win over a solid UTEP team before crushing Houston Christian 82-31 as a 31-point favorite. The Longhorns could very well be the best defensive team in the country, and I look for them to shut down the Gonzaga Bulldogs tonight.
We saw a chink in Gonzaga's armor with a 64-63 win over Michigan State as a 12-point favorite last time out. The Longhorns can do the same. They will be out for revenge from a 74-86 loss at Gonzaga last season. That was a very good Gonzaga team, and they should be down a notch or two this season, while Texas is improved. Plus, the Longhorns get them at home this time around. Wrong team favored here in what is going to be a raucous atmosphere in Austin. Roll with Texas Wednesday.
|11-16-22||Thunder v. Wizards OVER 225.5||Top||121-120||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Wizards OVER 225.5
The books are failing to adjust to how the Oklahoma City Thunder are playing right now. They have gone OVER the total in four consecutive games. They combined for 268 points with Milwaukee, 245 points with Toronto, 280 points with New York and 248 points with Boston in their last four games.
They have been playing this way for a while now and it's working as they are 6-5 SU in their last 11 games overall, so they aren't going to abandon in. The OVER is now 8-2 in their last 10 games overall with combined scores of 228 or more points in seven of those 10 games. This total of 225.5 is just too low with the way they are playing right now.
The Washington Wizards will oblige and play the up-tempo game with them. The Wizards get a big boost tonight with the return of their best player in Bradley Beal (21.6 PPG). He has been out since November 4th, and he'll give their offense a big boost tonight now that he's back healthy.
The Wizards and Thunder have combined for at least 226 points in three of their last four meetings, including 240 points in their most recent meeting. The OVER is 20-6 in Thunder last 26 games following an ATS win. The OVER is 16-7 in Wizards last 23 home games. The OVER is 21-9-1 in Wizards last 31 games following a win. The OVER is 64-31-1 in Wizards last 96 games playing on two days' rest, including 10-1 OVER In their last 11 home games when playing on two days' rest. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-16-22||Eastern Michigan v. Kent State -7.5||31-24||Loss||-105||47 h 53 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kent State -7.5
Eastern Michigan (6-4) just clinched a bowl berth with a lackluster 34-28 win at Akron last week. Now bowl eligible, the Eagles will be flat this week. No question Kent State (4-6) will be more motivated as this is not only to keep their bowl hopes alive, but it's also Senior Night for the Golden Flashes. I expect them to win in a blowout.
This is one of those rare times where the team with a worse record by two or more games is actually the better team. Kent State has played the 78th-ranked schedule in the country while Eastern Michigan has played the 130th. That's 52 spots' difference for two teams in the same conference. That is the only reason Eastern Michigan has a better record than Kent State.
Amazingly, despite playing the tougher schedule that has included Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia, the Golden Flashes still have the better stats than the Eagles. Kent State is only getting outgained by 10 yards per game and 0.1 yards per play. Eastern Michigan is getting outgained by 38 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.
It has been real ugly for the Eagles of late. They lost by 29 to Northern Illinois and were outgained by 184 yards. They did beat Ball State by 4 and outgained them by 56 yards. But then they were outgained by 157 yards by Toledo and by 41 yards by lowly Akron. The Eagles are really struggling offensively, averaging just 284 yards per game in their last four games. Kent State is coming off a 40-6 win at Bowling Green and I don't think Eastern Michigan is any better than Bowling Green.
Eastern Michigan is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Kent State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after allowing 9 points or less last game. The Eagles are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 games following a win. The Golden Flashes are the better team by a couple notches and they will simply want it more tonight. Take Kent State Wednesday.
|11-15-22||Nets v. Kings -1.5||Top||121-153||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
20* Nets/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5
The Sacramento Kings have rebounded from an 0-4 start to go 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall to get to .500 on the season. They would love that feeling of a winning record, and I think they get it tonight with a win and cover at home against the Brooklyn Nets.
The Kings are getting zero respect for this run they are one, which continues to make them an undervalued commodity and I keep cashing in. I backed them in each of their last three games in a 127-120 upset win as 4-point dogs over the Cavaliers, a 120-114 win at the Lakers as 4.5-point favorites and a 122-115 upset win as 4-point dogs to Golden State.
The Nets are getting respect for their 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS run without Kyrie Irving. No question their chemistry has been better without him, but they've also taken advantage of a very easy schedule. Now is the time to fade them after a 103-116 loss to the Lakers without LeBron James. Their run just came an end, and this team simply doesn't have the talent or depth to be very good on a nightly basis. It's one of my favorite teams to fade in the NBA. It will also be their 3rd game in 4 days after spending two days in Los Angeles, which is a distraction.
The Nets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. The Kings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest. Plays on home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Sacramento) 0 after winning five or six of its last seven games, winning between 45-55% of their games are 49-15 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against road underdogs (Brooklyn) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 40-49% of their games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Kings Tuesday.
|11-15-22||Clippers +7.5 v. Mavs||101-103||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +7.5
This line has been adjusted way too much in Dallas' favor for the Los Angeles Clippers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, while the Mavericks come in on two days' rest. The spot isn't worth this many points as these are two pretty evenly-matched teams without the spot. I'll gladly take the 7.5 points with the Clippers tonight.
The Mavericks shouldn't be favored this heavily over anyone right now. They are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with five wins during this stretch all coming by 9 points or fewer, with four wins by 5 points or fewer. They also lost outright to the Wizards as 6-point favorites, to the Magic as 8.5-point favorites and to the Thunder as 10.5-point favorites. This team just can't be trusted right now.
The spot isn't even bad for the Clippers. They will only be playing their 3rd game in 6 days here. They made easy work in a 122-106 win at Houston last night, so it's a short travel to Dallas. Nobody even played 30 minutes last night for the Clippers, so they should still be very fresh. They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA with Mann, Powell, Batum and Covington all coming off the bench, so they can handle these back-to-backs better than most teams.
The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Dallas. Roll with the Clippers Tuesday.
|11-15-22||Grizzlies v. Pelicans -3||Top||102-113||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
20* Grizzlies/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans -3
The New Orleans Pelicans have been a dangerous team with the Big 4 of Ingram (21.4 PPG), Williamson (23.5 PPG), McCollum (17.8 PPG, 6.3 APG) and Valanciunas (13.8 PG, 10.1 RPG) have been healthy this season. All four are expected to play tonight, and I like the Pelicans laying this short number at home against the Memphis Grizzlies.
While Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. are both expected to play tonight, both are hampered by injuries. Jackson Jr. will be on a minutes restriction in his season debut. The big loss for the Grizzlies is Desmond Bane, who is arguably the most underrated player in the entire NBA. He averages 24.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. He'll be out until December. The Grizzlies lost outright at Washington by 10 in their first and only game without Bane this season.
The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Memphis. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.
|11-15-22||Bowling Green +16 v. Toledo||Top||42-35||Win||100||24 h 53 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bowling Green +16
Toledo clinched a share of the MAC West Division title and is locked into the MAC Championship Game on December 3rd in Detroit. They hold the tiebreakers over Ball State, Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan with head-to-head victories over all three. They have nothing to play for but pride Tuesday night when they host Bowling Green. That's going to make it difficult for them to cover this 16-point spread with questionable motivation.
Bowling Green needs one more victory to become bowl eligible. They are the team with more to play for sitting at 5-5 this season. The Falcons also still have a shot to win the MAC East. They are one game behind Ohio and play the Bobcats next week. So they have so much to play for right now with everything still in front of them.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Falcons off their 40-6 loss to Kent State last week. That loss was an aberration as they had won three consecutive games prior to that defeat over Miami Ohio, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. That result has provided us with some extra line value this week against Toledo.
The Rockets would have a hard time covering this number even if they were fully motivated. After all, they haven't been getting margin the last three weeks. They lost outright to Buffalo 34-27 as 7-point road favorites, barely beat Eastern Michigan 27-24 as 4-point road favorites, and needed a late touchdown to beat Ball State 28-21 as 13.5-point home favorites.
Bowling Green is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games following two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Jason Candle is 4-14 ATS off a conference home win as the coach of Toledo. The Falcons are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.
|11-15-22||Michigan State v. Kentucky UNDER 141.5||86-77||Loss||-110||7 h 5 m||Show|
15* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 141.5
Michigan State is coming off two low scoring games to start the season. They won 73-55 over Northern Arizona for 128 combined points and a total of 144. They lost 63-64 to Gonzaga for 127 combined points and a total of 142. And now the books have set the number too high again with this 141.5-point total against a very good defensive team in Kentucky.
Kentucky has been without Oscar Tshiebwe (17.3 PPG, 15.3 RPG, 46 blocks last season) in his first two games this season. But he is expected to make his season debut tonight, and he is arguably the best defender in the country. They held Howard to 63 points and Duquesne to 52 in their two games without him. Michigan State will have a hard time finishing anything at the rim with Tshiebwe in there tonight.
Kentucky is 16-3 UNDER in its last 19 games following a home win. The Wildcats are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games following a blowout home win by 20 points or more. The UNDER is 59-29 in Wildcats last 88 games following a win. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|11-14-22||Spurs +7.5 v. Warriors||Top||95-132||Loss||-110||11 h 39 m||Show|
20* Spurs/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +7.5
The Golden State Warriors are going through the motions early in the season after winning the title last year. The Warriors are slacking on defense, ranking 25th in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 119.2 points per game and 46.9% shooting to their opponents. That's the biggest reason they are 5-8 SU & 4-9 ATS and have been grossly overvalued.
Now the Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 115-122 road loss to the Kings last night. Curry, Green, Thompson and Wiggins all played at least 32 minutes last night. The Warriors are getting no help from their bench, another reason they are struggling this season. They won't have much left in the tank for the Spurs tonight.
Meanwhile, San Antonio comes in rested and ready to go on two days' rest after last playing on Friday in a 111-93 home victory over the Bucks. The Spurs have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season as they are 6-7 SU & 8-5 ATS. They show up every night, and they'll certainly show up against the defending champs tonight with a lot more energy than the Warriors with this rest advantage.
San Antonio is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with the Warriors with the two losses coming by 6 and 4 points. The road team has won five consecutive meetings outright. San Antonio is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win. The Spurs are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall. San Antonio is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games. The Spurs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on two days' rest. Golden State is 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season. Bet the Spurs Monday.
|11-14-22||Commanders v. Eagles UNDER 44.5||Top||32-21||Loss||-110||93 h 34 m||Show|
20* Commanders/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 44.5
Divisional UNDERS are hitting at a 75% clip this season. UNDERS in general have been good, especially in primetime games, and even more so in division games. I think it will be more of the same on Monday Night Football between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders.
Most important is that this head-to-head series has been an UNDER series as well. In fact, the Eagles and Commanders have combined for 44 or fewer points in five consecutive meetings. That makes for a 5-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 44.5-point total. The Eagles beat the Commanders 24-8 in their first meeting this season for 32 combined points. So there's even more familiarity here as this will be their second meeting, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.
The Commanders haven't gotten any better on offense since the beginning of the season. They have been held to an average of just 14.9 points per game in their last seven games. Taylor Heineke doesn't have as many negative plays as Carson Wentz, but he's not much better, either.
The improvement for the Commanders of late has come on defense as they have gotten healthier on that side of the football. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in five consecutive games and an average of just 17.0 points per game over the last five. They just got star DL Chase Young back from injury, which bolsters an already strong defensive line.
The Eagles have an elite defense that ranks 3rd in allowing 299.0 yards per game and 2nd in allowing 4.7 yards per play. They are also 4th in scoring defense at 16.9 yards per game. The Eagles do have great offensive numbers, and their strength is clearly running the football. But that now meets Washington's strength which is stopping the run. They are holding opponents to 113 yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the ground, holding opponents to 21 rushing yards per game and 0.3 per carry less than their season averages. They rank in the Top 10 in rushing defense and will get enough stops to keep this one UNDER the total.
Washington is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games after two consecutive ATS wins. The Commanders are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games after scoring 17 points or fewer in two consecutive games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-14-22||Oral Roberts +20.5 v. Houston||45-83||Loss||-115||7 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +20.5
The Houston Cougars are getting a lot of love after opening the season with two blowout wins over Northern Colorado and St. Joseph's. While the Cougars are still loaded this season, they should not be favored by 20-plus points against a 'game' Oral Roberts team tonight.
The Cougars lost four double-digit scorers from last season in Edwards (13.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG), White Jr. (12.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG), Carlton (11.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and Moore (10.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG). Their backcourt is loaded, but their frontcourt will take a step back.
Oral Roberts is among the favorites to win the Summit League this season. They went 19-12 last season and brought back four starters, including star G Max Abmas (22.8 PPG, 3.7 APG last year. They returned six other players that averaged at least 6.6 PPG last season including Issac McBride (12.3 PPG) and Elijah Lufile (7.9 PPG, 7.0 RPG).
I was impressive with the 70-78 loss at St. Mary's as 9-point dogs in their opener that flashed the potential of the Golden Eagles. St. Mary's beat Vermont 79-53 as an 8-point favorite and North Texas 63-33 as a 9.5-point favorite. So that 8-point loss to the Gaels looks even better after seeing what St. Mary's has done against their other two opponents.
The Golden Eagles are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games. Oral Roberts is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Golden Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after making 13 or more 3-pointers last game. Oral Roberts is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds. The Golden Eagles will give the Cougars more of a fight than they bargained for tonight. Roll with Oral Roberts Monday.
|11-14-22||Thunder v. Celtics OVER 228||Top||122-126||Win||100||8 h 19 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Celtics NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 228
The Oklahoma City Thunder have changed to an up-tempo game that fits their young roster in the last week and the oddsmakers are failing to adjust. They lost to the Bucks and all their backups 136-132 (OT) for 268 combined points, beat the Raptors 132-113 for 245 combined points and beat the Knicks 145-135 for 280 combined points in their last three games coming in.
This 228-point total has been set too low with the way the Thunder are playing right now. Now they face a Boston Celtics team that is far and away 1st in offensive efficiency this season, scoring 117.8 points per 100 possessions. But the Celtics have taken a big step back in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.1 points per 100 possessions. They really miss the Robert Williams, who has been out with an injury all season.
The OVER is 5-1-1 in Celtics last seven games overall with at least 225 combined points in six of those seven games. The OVER is 6-0 in Thunder last six games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. The OVER is 7-2 in Thunder last nine games overall. The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Boston. Take the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-14-22||Raptors v. Pistons +5.5||115-111||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +5.5
The Toronto Raptors are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming 116-109 at home over the lowly Houston Rockets as 10-point favorites. They lost by 14 at Chicago, by 19 at Oklahoma City and by 18 at Indiana.
A big reason for the Raptors' struggles is that they are now without three of their top four scorers in Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 7.7 APG), Fred VanVleet (18.4 PPG, 6.8 APG) and Gary Trent Jr. (16.6 PPG) tonight. They cannot be 5.5-point road favorites over the Pistons tonight missing these three guys.
The Raptors are a tired team to boot playing their 6th game in 9 days, so it hurts them even more being without these guys. The Pistons are rested and ready to go playing only their 5th game in 10 days here. They were competitive in their loss to the Celtics losing by 9 even without Cade Cunningham. Jaden Ivey is quickly blossoming into a star scoring 26 points in the loss.
Detroit is 34-19 ATS in its last 53 games following a home loss. The Pistons are 33-19 ATS in their last 52 games following three or more consecutive losses. Amazingly, Detroit is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Toronto with six outright wins as underdogs. They clearly have this team figured out, and it will be even easier for them with the Raptors missing three of their top four scorers. Take the Pistons Monday.
|11-13-22||Warriors v. Kings +4.5||Top||115-122||Win||100||11 h 12 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +4.5
The Sacramento Kings have quietly gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their two losses came by 3 points at Miami and by 3 points at Golden State. They have upset the Cavaliers and Heat during this stretch as well.
Now the Kings have double-revenge here after losing to the Warriors by 5 and 3 points in two road games this season. Now the Kings get the Warriors at home this time around, and I expect them to win outright, let alone staying within 4.5 points here.
The Warriors are going through the motions early in the season after winning the title last year. They certainly won't be motivated to beat the Kings for a third time already this season. The Warriors are slacking on defense, ranking 24th in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 119.0 points per game and 46.5% shooting to their opponents. That's the biggest reason they are 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS and have been grossly overvalued.
Plays against road favorites (Golden State) - off two or more consecutive home wins, in Sunday games are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games playing on one days' rest. Sacramento is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Bet the Kings Sunday.
|11-13-22||Chargers +7 v. 49ers||16-22||Win||100||107 h 47 m||Show|
15* Chargers/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7
The lookahead line on this game was 49ers -3.5. The 49ers were idle on their bye week, while the Chargers covered as 2.5-point road favorites in a 20-17 win at Atlanta. So what has changed since the lookahead line? Nothing really. So we are getting 3.5 points of value here, and I'm going to take that value every time.
I know the Chargers have their problems with injuries and attrition this season, but they did just have a bye two weeks ago so they are pretty fresh. And they are still 4-1 SU in their last five games even with all these injuries. Their lone loss came to the Seahawks and they were on a short week and off an OT game. The Seahawks are one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
The 49ers are getting a lot of love for their 31-14 win over the Rams last time out. The Rams are broken on offense and the 49ers simply own them. People are quick to forget the 49ers lost 44-23 to the Chiefs the previous week and allowed 529 yards to them. San Francisco also lost 28-14 at Atlanta the game prior, the same team the Chargers just beat. The Chargers only lost by 3 to the Chiefs on the road as well to give these teams some common opponents.
The 49ers are just 8-17-1 ATS as home favorites under Kyle Shanahan. Justin Herbert is 7-3 ATS as a road dog, including 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or more. The back door is going to be open for Herbert if we need it because the 49ers' weakness is defending the pass. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. Roll with the Chargers Sunday night.
|11-13-22||Nuggets v. Bulls +2||126-103||Loss||-110||10 h 13 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2
I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight. They have lost three of their last four against a brutal schedule of Boston, Toronto (twice) and New Orleans. They'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight as a result, and I like their chances considering they are well-rested after having the LAST THREE DAYS OFF!
The Nuggets don't have the same luxury. They will be playing their 4th consecutive road games and their 4th road game in 7 days. They started to show some fatigue in their 112-131 loss at Boston on Friday after barely squeaking by against the Pacers by 3 and Spurs by 6 in their two prior road games. Denver will be without Bones Hyland, who averages 14.0 PPG in just 20.7 minutes per game this season and is a key cog off their bench.
The Bulls won both meetings with the Nuggets last season. The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last five games when playing on three or more days' rest. The Bulls are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 Sunday games. Roll with the Bulls Sunday.
|11-13-22||Jazz +3.5 v. 76ers||98-105||Loss||-110||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Utah Jazz +3.5
The Utah Jazz have been grossly undervalued to start the season. They are 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS this season and got back way better pieces in the Mitchell and Gobert trades than they got credit for. Markkanen (22.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG), Sexton (13.9 PG), Olynyk (12.1 PPG), Beasley (11.8 PPG), Vanderbilt (8.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and Horton-Tucker (7.9 PPG) are meshing well with holdovers Clarkson (18.6 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Conley (11.4 PPG, 8.2 APG).
The Philadelphia 76ers have been grossly overvalued this season. They are 6-7 SU & 6-7 ATS and now they are without one of their best players in James Harden until December. I backed the 76ers last night in a great spot as they were out for revenge on the Hawks and got that revenge. But now I expect them to be flat tonight, while the Jazz will be motivated after an upset loss to the Wizards last night.
Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but the spot is better for the Jazz. They are a deeper team and will handle this spot better because of it. They also had two days off prior to playing the Wizards last night. Meanwhile, the 76ers have zero depth without Harden now and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Embiid played 40 minutes, Harris 38 and Maxey 36 last night. The Jazz only had one player play more than 30 minutes last night.
Utah is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. Philadelphia is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 games following an ATS win. Utah is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season. The Jazz are 7-0 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days this season. Take the Jazz Sunday.
|11-13-22||Cowboys -4 v. Packers||Top||28-31||Loss||-110||65 h 56 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Dallas -4
The Dallas Cowboys are showing that they are one of the best teams in the NFL this season. Especially with what they were able to do without Dak Prescott going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles. They even outgained the Eagles in that game but lost the turnover battle 3-0.
So the Cowboys are a complete team, and that has shown again the last two weeks since getting Prescott back. He was a little rusty in his return, a 24-6 win over the Lions in which the defense led the way. But he wasn't rusty at all in his second start back, beating the Bears 49-29 while going 21-of-27 passing for 242 yards.
Now the Cowboys should be even sharper coming off their bye week. They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. And players have come out and said they want to win this one for Mike McCarthy. Like him or not, McCarthy has been the single-best coach to bet on in the NFL. He is 167-90 ATS as a head coach, including 20-7 ATS with the Cowboys. He has a great defensive coordinator in Dan Quinn, so he can't take all the credit, but the proof is in the pudding.
The Packers are a mess injury-wise. They have 15 more players on the injury report. THey just lost their best defender in LB Gary to a season-ending injury last week. Fellow LB's Campbell and Barnes are expected to be out this week. That leaves them very thin at the position. They are also thin at the WR position, which is a big reason for their struggles offensively this season. Even Aaron Rodgers has a banged up thumb.
Rodgers threw three bad interceptions last week in a 15-9 loss to the Lions last week. If they couldn't get right against the Lions, who have the worst defense in the NFL, they certainly aren't going to get right on offense this week. Dallas ranks 3rd in scoring defense allowing just 16.6 points per game and 4th allowing just 4.8 yards per play.
The Packers are getting respect for what they have done in the past, not the team they are this season. That's a big reason they are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone cover coming in backdoor fashion, trailing by 17 the Bills but getting a TD late to cover the 10.5-point spread in a 10-point defeat. They have losses to the Lions, Commanders, Jets and Giants during this stretch.
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games, and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games. The Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games overall. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record and winning by 18.7 points per game in this spot. Bet the Cowboys Sunday.
|11-13-22||Oklahoma State v. Oakland +10||Top||91-62||Loss||-110||5 h 4 m||Show|
20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland +10
Oakland went 20-12 last season and brought back three starters from that team including G Jalen Moore (15.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Trey Townsend (13.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG). Head coach Greg Kampe also brought in an impressive haul of transfers, including Rocket Watts (Michigan State & Miss State), Lorne Bowman (Wisconsin) and Keaton Hervey (Missouri State).
The Golden Grizzlies got off to a great start this season with a 92-27 win over Defiance, which wasn't too 'defiant' in this one. But they were probably caught looking ahead to Oklahoma State when they lost 82-87 as 7.5-point home favorites to Bowling Green last time out. Alas, now that loss works in our favor here as Oakland is catching too many points in this game catching 10 at home.
Oklahoma State has been far from impressive this season. After beating UT-Arlington 77-66 as a 20.5-point home favorite, the Cowboys lost outright as 8.5-point home favorites to Southern Illinois. Now they are overvalued once again in their third game laying double-digits on the road to a game Oakland team that has pulled some big upsets in recent years against Power 5 schools, or at the very least hung tough.
Indeed, last year Oakland won 56-55 as a 17-point underdog at Oklahoma State. The Golden Grizzlies only lost 71-84 as 22.5-point underdogs at Oklahoma State two seasons ago. They've proven they can hang with this team already, and now they finally get them at home and are catching double-digits. Roll with Oakland Sunday.
|11-13-22||Broncos +3 v. Titans||Top||10-17||Loss||-110||144 h 13 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos +3
The Denver Broncos are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now due to their 3-5 record through eight games. They could easily be 7-1 or even better as they have four losses by once score, including three by 3 points or fewer. Their numbers also suggest they are much better than their record.
Denver has had two weeks to get ready for this game after having a bye last week, which is a huge advantage. Players were talking about how their up-tempo approach helped big time against the Jaguars, and I look for more of it this week. This is going to be their best offensive performance of the season as they have been lagging on that side of the ball. But it's not like they've been completely dreadful, ranking 20th in total offense at 328.9 yards per game.
What makes the Broncos underrated is their defense, which ranks 2nd in the NFL in allowing 288.4 yards per game, 2nd allowing 16.5 points per game and 1st allowing 4.5 yards per play. I love backing good defensive teams. The Broncos are outgaining their opponents by 40 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play on the season, which is the sign of a 5-3 or better team, not one that is 3-5.
Tennessee is the most overrated team in the NFL right now in my opinion. It's time to 'sell high' on the Titans after going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. They finally had their five-game winning streak come to an end with a tough 17-20 (OT) loss at Kansas City Sunday night. Now I think there will be a 'hangover' effect here, letting that loss beat them twice.
This Tennessee defense was on the field for 90-plus plays and 40-plus minutes against the Chiefs, so they are going to be tired. The new up-tempo approach of the Broncos should help them take advantage of this tired defense. I'm not concerned whether it's a hobbled Tannehill or rookie Willis at QB for this one, because it's not going to matter.
The numbers show the Titans are grossly overvalued. They rank dead last in total offense at 278.5 yards per game and 23rd in total defense at 363.3 yards per game. They are getting outgained by roughly 85 yards per game, which is the sign of like a 2-6 team, not one that is 5-3 like the Titans are. They cannot keep winning in this fashion, and injuries are really starting to pile up for them, especially defensively.
I'll gladly back the fresher, healthier, hungrier team off a bye this week in the Broncos catching points. The Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Titans. Denver is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games playing on two weeks of rest. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after losing four of their last five games coming in. Bet the Broncos Sunday.
|11-13-22||Browns +4 v. Dolphins||Top||17-39||Loss||-110||99 h 27 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +4
I love the spot for the Cleveland Browns this week. They are coming off their bye week and off one of the most impressive performances of any team this season. They beat the Cincinnati Bengals 32-13 at home on Monday Night Football two weeks ago. They outgained the Bengals 440 to 229, or by 211 total yards. That's a Cincinnati team that is crushing everyone else recently.
Cleveland is simply undervalued right now due to its 3-5 record. They are actually outscoring their opponents on the season and outgaining them by 55 yards per game. Four of their five losses have come by 3 points or fewer and by a combined 9 points, so they have just been unfortunate in close games.
The good news is if they lose by 3, we cover. The only reason we are getting 4 points with the Browns here is because of records, which show the Browns at 3-5 and the Dolphins at 6-3. But unlike Cleveland, Miami has been very fortunate in close games. In fact, the Dolphins are 5-0 in games decided by 6 points or fewer. They only have one win by more than one score, which was the opener against New England.
The last three weeks they have been very fortunate to escape with victories over some bad teams. They beat the Steelers by 6 at home, the Lions by 4 on the road and the Bears by 3 on the road. The Browns are better than all three of those teams. And they are in a favorable spot off the bye week.
I like the matchup for this Cleveland offense up against this Miami defense. Miami allowed 252 rushing yards to the Bears last week. Cleveland ranks 3rd in rushing at 164.6 yards per game and should be able to wear down this Miami defense with the two-headed monster of Chubb and Hunt. There's a good chance TE David Njoku is back from an ankle injury this week too, though they didn't need him against Cincinnati.
This Cleveland defense is as healthy as it has been in a long time coming off the bye and should create some havoc with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney getting after Tua. He won't have nearly as much time as he's had the last three weeks against three terrible pass rushes in the Steelers, Lions and Bears. CB Denzel Ward returns this week from a concussion, and he is their best cover corner, which is huge having him back to go up against Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The Browns are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Miami) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in November games are 26-3 (89.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Browns Sunday.