|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-13-21||Notre Dame +10.5 v. Virginia||Top||68-80||Loss||-108||23 h 32 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame +10.5
The love the spot for Notre Dame tonight. It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Fighting Irish after they have gone just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. But keep in mind four of those five losses came by 10 points or fewer.
That includes their 9-point loss to Virginia on December 30th at home. They were 7-point underdogs in that game. Now they are 10.5-point underdogs in the rematch at Virginia, a 3.5-point adjustment. It's simply adjusted too much for home-court advantage, which isn't worth much in college basketball this year. Notre Dame will be the more motivated team out for revenge and getting to play the Cavaliers just two weeks later here.
It's also a good time to 'sell high' on Virginia after they have won six of their last seven games overall. Each of their last three wins have come by 12 points or fewer against a very weak schedule. The Cavaliers won by 9 over Notre Dame, by 9 over Wake Forest and by 12 over Boston College. This team has been grossly overrated since the beginning of the season when they came out ranked in the Top 5 and promptly lost outright to San Francisco as a 15-point favorite.
Virginia has only beaten Notre Dame by more than 9 points once in the last six meetings in this series. The Cavaliers have beaten the Fighting Irish by 1, 6 and 5 points in their last three meetings in Charlottesville. And that was when there were fans and a much bigger advantage for much better Cavaliers teams than this 2020-21 version.
The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Virginia is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Virginia is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a win by 10 points or more. These four trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the Fighting Irish tonight. Bet Notre Dame Wednesday.
|01-13-21||VCU v. George Washington +11.5||84-77||Win||100||3 h 13 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on George Washington +11.5
George Washington is grossly undervalued right now due to its 3-7 SU record. But the Colonials have suffered all seven losses by 11 points or fewer, including four by 4 points or less. So they haven't lost by more than 11 points all season, and they're not about to start here against VCU.
VCU is overvalued after going 7-1 SU in its last eight games overall against an extremely soft schedule. They were favored in all eight games. And against the toughest opponent they faced, they lost outright 68-83 as 6-point favorites against Rhode Island.
George Washington is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. teams that force 18 or more turnovers per game. The Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games coming in. The Colonials are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after five straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers.
George Washington's great ability to take care of the ball against VCU's pressure defense is a big key here to the Colonials covering. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take George Washington Wednesday.
|01-12-21||Alabama v. Kentucky -2.5||Top||85-65||Loss||-110||10 h 47 m||Show|
20* Alabama/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Kentucky -2.5
John Calipari teams at Kentucky always seem to get better as the season goes on because they are always so young with mostly freshmen. And that has been the case again this season with the Wildcats being extremely undervalued right now due to their slow start.
Indeed, the Wildcats opened 1-6 this season. They have since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS. They went on the road and beat Mississippi State 78-73, topped Vanderbilt at home 77-74 and crushed Florida 76-58 on the road. Now they will take down Alabama here Tuesday.
The Crimson Tide come in overvalued off five straight victories. Now they will meet their match here against the Wildcats after barely surviving Auburn 94-90 on the road last time out. Alabama is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games following five or more consecutive wins.
Kentucky simply owns Alabama, going 12-1 SU in the last 13 meetings. The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Wildcats are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Alabama is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by 6 points or less. Kentucky is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog. Take Kentucky Tuesday.
|01-12-21||Lakers v. Rockets +5.5||Top||117-100||Loss||-109||9 h 52 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Rockets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Houston +5.5
I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 102-120 home loss to the Lakers on Sunday. Now they don't have to wait long for revenge as they host the Lakers here again. And we're getting extra value as the Rockets were 3.5-point dogs in that first meeting and now 5.5-point dogs in the rematch.
The Rockets will clearly be the more motivated team here. And they aren't likely to shoot as poorly as they did in that first meeting where they shot 41.1% from the field and just 29.3% from 3-point range.
We've seen the Lakers falter in this situation twice recently. After beating the Spurs by 14 as 7.5-point favorites on December 30th, they failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites in the rematch on January 1st. After beating the Grizzlies by 14 as 10-point favorites on January 3rd, they only beat the Grizzlies by 2 as 9.5-point favorites in the rematch on January 5th and failed to cover.
The Lakers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win. Houston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games after going under the total in two or more consecutive games. Plays against road teams (LA Lakers) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 52-23 (69.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Rockets Tuesday.
|01-12-21||TCU +6.5 v. Oklahoma||46-82||Loss||-108||8 h 17 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on TCU +6.5
I love the spot for the TCU Horned Frogs tonight. They had won five straight games prior to losing their last two games to the two best teams in the Big 12 in Kansas and Baylor. Now they take a big step down in class here against Oklahoma.
The Horned Frogs will also be out for revenge from a 78-82 home loss to Oklahoma in their first meeting this season back on December 6th. And they go from being 4-point dogs in that game to now 6.5-point dogs in the rematch, so there's some serious line value here.
Oklahoma is going to be without both Bradey Manek (13.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Jaylen Hill (3.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG) due to COVID-19. Manek is a huge loss as he is the team's second-leading scorer and had 14 points and 6 rebounds in the first meeting with TCU. The Horned Frogs are fully healthy for this game.
Plays on underdogs (TCU) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points in their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by 24 or more points in their last three games are 80-41 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Sooners are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as favorites. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Roll with TCU Tuesday.
|01-11-21||Pacers v. Kings OVER 226.5||122-127||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
15* Pacers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 226.5
The Indiana Pacers have been a lot more of an offensive juggernaut this season under new head coach Nate Bjorkgren. They are scoring 115.0 points per game, shooting 48.9% as a team and hoisting a lot more 3-pointers than last year. Their defense has taken a hit as a result too.
The Kings like to run and gun as well as they average 112.4 points per game and are 10th in the NBA in pace. But they give up 121.0 points per game and rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency. This game has shootout written all over it.
The OVER is 5-2 in Kings last seven games overall with combined scores of 240 or more points in five of them. The OVER is 26-10 in Kings last 36 games with a total of 220 to 229.5 points. The OVER is 18-8 in Pacers last 26 games following a loss. The OVER is 19-7 in Kings last 26 games following an ATS loss. The OVER is 5-0 in Kings last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the OVER in this game Monday.
|01-11-21||Ohio State v. Alabama UNDER 75||Top||24-52||Loss||-110||9 h 9 m||Show|
20* Ohio State/Alabama National Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 75
This total is being inflated due to Alabama's offensive numbers on the season and Ohio State's offensive barrage against Clemson that came out of nowhere. Justin Fields won't be nearly as effective against a much better defense here in Alabama.
Fields is dealing with a rib injury that held him out of practice most the week. Ohio State has yet to reveal the severity of it, but it's not good. And he's not about to do what he did against Clemson to Alabama. The Tigers were cheating up to stop the run all game, allowing Fields to go over the top time after time. Alabama will make the proper adjustment and make Ohio State drive the length of the field to score.
This is an Alabama defense that is giving up just 19.0 points per game this season. Ohio State also has a great defense, allowing just 22.0 points per game. The Buckeyes held Trevor Lawrence and Clemson's high-powered attack to just 28 points. What made that even more impressive was Clemson was in the hurry up most of the 2nd half trying to erase a big deficit.
The extra preparation time in between games favors the UNDER as well. The Buckeyes and Crimson Tide have both had 10 days to get ready for this game. That will favor the defenses more than the offenses in this one. And keep in mind if Alabama gets up they are more than happy with just sitting on the ball in the 2nd half. That was the case against Notre Dame in their 31-14 victory.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (Ohio State) - after beating the spread by 35 points or more in their last three games against an opponent that beat the spread by 49 or or more points in their last seven games are 26-4 (86.7%) over the last 10 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|01-11-21||Bradley +1.5 v. Northern Iowa||Top||75-73||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
20* MVC GAME OF THE MONTH on Bradley +1.5
The Bradley Braves will be highly motivated for revenge today after losing 72-78 to Northern Iowa yesterday. Now they don't have to wait long for revenge as they get the Panthers against today. They are underdogs in the rematch when they should be favorites.
This is a Northern Iowa team that has been consistently overvalued all season. They are just 3-7 SU & 2-7 ATS on the year. And now they are without their best player in AJ Green, who has been out since the first three games of the season. Green was averaging 22.2 PPG and 5.7 RPG this season after averaging 19.7 PPG last season.
Bradley is 6-4 this season with all four losses coming by 6 points or fewer, including 1-point road losses to both Missouri (53-54) and Xavier (50-51). That's how close the Braves are to being 10-0 this season. The Panthers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Bet Bradley Monday.
|01-10-21||Colgate v. Boston University +3.5||Top||89-45||Loss||-105||7 h 5 m||Show|
20* Patriot League GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston +3.5
Boston will be highly motivated for revenge following a 79-86 loss to Colgate as 4-point underdogs yesterday. I fully expect them to win outright as 3.5-point underdogs in the rematch today.
The Raiders are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games as road favorites. We saw Colgate beat Army by 44 and come back and lose to them by 2 the next day in their last situation like this one. Bet Boston Sunday.
|01-10-21||Bears +10.5 v. Saints||9-21||Loss||-119||69 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bears +10.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bears off their 16-35 loss to the Packers last week. They were in that game in the 2nd half down only 5 before the Packers took over late. But it was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. The Bears actually outgained the Packers by 40 yards and held them to 316 total yards.
This Chicago offense has really come to life behind Mitch Trubisky down the stretch. They are averaging 30.2 points and 382.2 yards per game in their last six games overall, which have all come with Trubisky under center. Those are the kind of numbers that are going to make it tough for the Saints to put them away. And the Bears obviously have one of the better defenses in the NFL, giving up 344.1 yards per game on the season.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Saints, who are overvalued off back-to-back blowout wins over the Vikings 52-33 and Panthers 33-7. The Panthers had about five red zone trips end in zero points and turned the ball over five times. That was a hugely misleading final score, and it has provided us with some serious line value here on the Bears.
Consider that the Bears were only 4.5-point underdogs to the Packers last week and now they are 10.5-point underdogs to the Saints. That's a 6-point adjustment. Keep in mind the Packers beat the Saints earlier this season too, and the Bears have been competitive in every game outside of their two matchups with the Packers. They only have three losses by double-digits all season, and two were against the Packers. The other was against the Rams by 14, who were coming off a bye week.
Also consider that the Bears were 5-point underdogs to the Saints in their first meeting this season. They only lost that game 23-26 in overtime. So this is also a 5.5-point adjustment off that first meeting, which saw the Bears hang tough for four quarters and overtime, and I think they can hang tough again. Keep in mind that was Nick Foles at QB too for the Bears in that first meeting, and Trubisky is the better of the two quarterbacks, which has been proven here down the stretch.
The Saints have been choke artists in the playoffs in recent years. New Orleans is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 playoff home games, including 0-4 ATS in its last four playoff home games. They were upset by both the Rams and Vikings the last two seasons at home in the playoffs. Underdogs are 11-1 ATS in the 12 wild card games over the last three seasons. Teams entering the playoffs with an 8-8 record or worse are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven instances in the Wild Card Round.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10.5 points (New Orleans) - off a road win over a division rival, a top team winning 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with the Bears Sunday.
|01-10-21||Bulls +11.5 v. Clippers||127-130||Win||100||5 h 9 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +11.5
The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with upset wins over the Mavericks, Blazers and Wizards (twice). They also only lost by 2 to the Lakers as 9-point dogs and by 1 to the Warriors as 3.5-point dogs. They have lost just one of their last eight games by more than 4 points, and that was a blowout loss to the Bucks, which can be expected.
The Clippers have no business being double-digit favorites over the Bulls today. They are just 2-3 SU in their last five games overall with their two wins come by 7 and 5 points. So they haven't won any of their last five games by more than 7 points.
The Bulls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss by 6 points or less. Chicago is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games playing on one days' rest. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five Sunday games. The Clippers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games playing on one days' rest. Roll with the Bulls Sunday.
|01-10-21||Jazz v. Pistons +8.5||Top||96-86||Loss||-105||4 h 9 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +8.5
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Utah Jazz off their upset win as 5.5-point underdogs over the Milwaukee Bucks last time out. The Jazz are a tired team right now playing their 7th game in 11 days. They won't have enough left in the tank here in their 5th straight road game to beat the Pistons by more than 8.5 points.
It's also a good time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who are off to a 2-7 start this season. But the Pistons have won outright in this price range twice with an upset win as an 8.5-point dog over the Celtics and an upset win as 8-point dogs to the Suns. They also only lost by 2 as 8-point dogs to the Celtics in the rematch.
Betting on Jazz games is simple. Back them as underdogs and fade them as favorites. Indeed, the Jazz are 6-23-2 ATS in their last 31 games as favorites. The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs. Take the Pistons Sunday.
|01-10-21||Holy Cross +11.5 v. Army||70-61||Win||100||4 h 5 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Line Mistake on Holy Cross +11.5
Holy Cross will be motivated for revenge following a 68-83 loss as 5.5-point dogs to Army. Now they come back as 11.5-point dogs in the rematch today and will improve enough to cover this inflated number.
We just saw Holy Cross in this exact same situation against Boston. After losing 76-83 in their first meeting as 10-point dogs, they came back and won outright 68-66 as 14.5-point dogs in the rematch. They can beat Army here. The Crusaders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs. Bet Holy Cross Sunday.
|01-10-21||Maine +10.5 v. NJIT||45-41||Win||100||3 h 5 m||Show|
15* American East PLAY OF THE DAY on Maine +10.5
Maine will be motivated for revenge following a 54-63 loss to New Jersey Tech as 8.5-point dogs yesterday. Now the Black Bears come back as 10.5-point dogs today in the rematch, which is too many points.
Maine is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog. The Highlanders are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win. New Jersey Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. Maine is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after scoring 60 points or less in two straight games. Take Maine Sunday.
|01-10-21||Vermont v. Binghamton +12.5||84-44||Loss||-105||3 h 5 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Binghamton +12.5
Binghamton wants revenge from a 60-76 loss as 12.5-point underdogs to Vermont yesterday. I expect them to play much better here Sunday and to be the more motivated team, thus covering this identical 12.5-point spread this time around.
This is the 5th time Binghamton has been in this situation. They have improved in the 2nd game in three of four times they've lost the first matchup with the only non-improvement resulting in a cover. They lost by 3 to Marist as 4-point dogs and came back and covered as 6-point dogs in a 4-point loss in the rematch. The last time Vermont won the first game in this situation they beat New Jersey Tech by 14 and came back and lost by 1 in the rematch.
The Catamounts are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. Vermont is 3-13-2 ATS in its last 18 Sunday games. The Bearcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit home loss. Vermont is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 games when playing with one or less days' rest. Roll with Binghamton Sunday.
|01-09-21||Cal Poly +13 v. CS Bakersfield||50-67||Loss||-109||11 h 28 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Cal Poly +13
Cal Poly wants revenge from a 49-62 loss at Bakersfield yesterday as 13-point underdogs. Now the Mustangs come back as identical 13-point dogs today and this number is simply too high.
The Mustangs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 50 points or less in their previous game. The Roadrunners are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games overall. Bakersfield is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 home games. The Roadrunners are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bakersfield is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off a conference win. Take Cal Poly Saturday.
|01-09-21||Nevada +11.5 v. San Diego State||67-69||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Nevada +11.5
Nevada wants revenge from a 60-65 loss at San Diego State as a 13-point underdog on Thursday. Now the Wolf Pack get to face the Aztecs just two days later here Saturday and come back as 11.5-point dogs.
The Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Nevada is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. The Wolf Pack are 45-20-2 ATS in their last 67 games following an ATS win. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU win. The Wolf Pack are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after playing their last game on the road. Roll with Nevada Saturday.
|01-09-21||Nebraska-Omaha +7.5 v. North Dakota State||66-80||Loss||-108||10 h 58 m||Show|
15* Summit League PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska-Omaha +7.5
Nebraska-Omaha wants revenge from a 69-71 loss at North Dakota State as 7.5-point dogs yesterday. Now the Mavericks come back as 7.5-point dogs today in the rematch, and this line is simply too high again.
The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Omaha is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a losing record. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Omaha) off a close conference loss by 3 points or less against an opponent that won as a favorite but failed to cover in their last game are 59-30 (66.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take Nebraska-Omaha Saturday.
|01-09-21||Bucs v. Washington Football Team +8||Top||31-23||Push||0||48 h 8 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +8
The Washington Football Team gets overlooked because they have a mediocre offense. But they have a championship level defense, and that fact alone gives them a chance to pull the upset here against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round. At the very least they should stay within this inflated 8-point spread.
Washington has allowed 20 points or fewer in seven straight games coming in. That's hard to do in today's NFL, and it just goes to show how dominant their defense has really been. They have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL, and the way to get to Tom Brady is with pressure, especially pressure up the middle. Washington can do just that.
Tom Brady has been awful in primetime games this year. He is 0-4 ATS in primetime games with five touchdowns and five interceptions. He has an 8:30 bed time, which may have something to do with it. And the Bucs come in overvalued on a 4-game winning streak, but all four wins came against teams with losing records. Tampa went 1-5 SU against teams with records of .500 or better this season. The temps will be in the 30s at game time so this is also Brady having to go outdoors in the cold weather, something you don't want from aging quarterbacks.
Washington may be a losing team at 7-9, but they have been a different team down the stretch and with Alex Smith under center. They have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their only two losses came with Dwayne Haskins as their starter. They are 5-0 SU in games that Smith has started to improve to 11-5 with Smith compared to 6-26 with all other starting QB's since he arrived in Washington.
The last seven teams that entered the playoffs with a record of 8-8 or worse have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS. That includes outright upsets by the two teams that had 7-9 records. These teams consistently come in undervalued due to their record. But as stated before, Washington has been a much better team down the stretch than its record would suggest.
Tampa Bay has a huge loss on the defensive side of the ball that is getting overlooked. LB Devin White, the teams's leading tackler with 140 tackles, 9 sacks and 18 tackles for loss, will be out of this game due to COVID-19. I think his loss is a huge one, and it will allow Antonio Gibson to run the ball more effectively and take some pressure off of Smith.
Underdogs are 11-1 ATS in 12 Wild Card games over the last three seasons. Washington is 6-0 ATS off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win. Bet Washington Saturday.
|01-09-21||Suns v. Pacers -3||Top||125-117||Loss||-115||9 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3
The Indiana Pacers have been one of my favorite teams to back in the early going this season. They are way underrated because they are mostly healthy this season, which hasn't been the case in recent years. And the players love head coach Nate Bjorkgren.
He has given them the freedom to play to their strengths. It has paid off in a big way as they have three All-Star caliber players in Malcom Brogdon (23.6 PPG, 7.0 APG), Domantas Sabonis (20.8 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 6.4 APG) and Victor Oladipo (20.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.3 APG). This trio can take them a long way when healthy, which has been the case thus far.
The Pacers are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS this season. Now they face a tired Phoenix Suns team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 105-110 (OT) loss in Detroit last night. It will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Suns. The Pacers had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go.
Plays against road underdogs of 3 to 9.5 points (Phoenix) - a tired team playing their 2nd game in 2 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on two days' rest. The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Pacers Saturday.
|01-09-21||Florida Atlantic +7.5 v. Old Dominion||55-64||Loss||-110||8 h 28 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Line Mistake on Florida Atlantic +7.5
Florida Atlantic wants revenge from a 67-71 loss to Old Dominion as a 7.5-point underdog yesterday. Now the Owls come back as 7.5-point dogs in the rematch today, and this number is too high once again.
Old Dominion has consistently been overvalued, going 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. They are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Monarchs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as home favorites. The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs. The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.
|01-09-21||Louisiana Tech +7 v. Western Kentucky||Top||63-58||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech +7
Louisiana Tech wants revenge from a 64-66 loss to Western Kentucky yesterday as a 7.5-point underdog. Now the Bulldogs come back as 7-point underdogs in the rematch as this line is way too high in a game I expect them to win outright.
Betting against Western Kentucky has been a great move. The Hilltoppers are 3-9 ATS this season. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS int heir last six games overall. The Bulldogs are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as road underdogs. The Hilltoppers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. Western Kentucky is 0-7 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.
|01-09-21||Arkansas-Little Rock -1.5 v. UL - Lafayette||Top||78-76||Win||100||6 h 29 m||Show|
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas-Little Rock -1.5
Little Rock is coming off a 64-66 loss to Lafayette yesterday as a 1-point favorite. I expect the Trojans to bounce back here as 1.5-point favorites in the rematch. Lafayette is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off a win by 6 points or less. Bet Little Rock Saturday.
|01-09-21||Oakland -1 v. Green Bay||78-87||Loss||-110||6 h 29 m||Show|
15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland -1
Oakland wants revenge from an 81-84 (OT) loss to Wisconsin-Green Bay yesterday as a 1.5-point favorite. Now the Golden Grizzlies come back as only 1-point favorites in the rematch today and I expect them to have their revenge.
The Golden Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss. Oakland is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss. The Phoenix are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. The Golden Grizzlies are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less. Take Oakland Saturday.
|01-09-21||Southern Miss +14 v. UAB||58-62||Win||100||6 h 28 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +14
Southern Miss wants revenge from a 60-72 loss at UAB as 13-point underdogs yesterday. At the very least, I expect the Golden Eagles to cover this 14-point spread in the rematch today.
The Golden Eagles have been consistently undervalued, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. UAB is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team that is called for 17 or fewer fouls per game. The underdog is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with Southern Miss Saturday.
|01-09-21||Manhattan +2.5 v. Quinnipiac||45-42||Win||100||5 h 29 m||Show|
15* MAAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Manhattan +2.5
Manhattan wants revenge from a 79-84 (double OT) loss to Quinnipiac yesterday as a 3-point dog. Now the Jaspers come back as 2.5-point dogs in the rematch Saturday in a game I fully expect them to win outright.
Quinnipiac is 22-40 ATS in its last 62 games after scoring 80 points or more. The Jaspers are 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings and should be 4-0 if not for blowing a big lead late in regulation. Masiello is 13-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games as the coach of the Jaspers. Bet Manhattan Saturday.
|01-09-21||Idaho +14 v. Southern Utah||67-83||Loss||-110||3 h 29 m||Show|
15* Big Sky PLAY OF THE DAY on Idaho +14
Idaho only lost 80-85 as a 14-point underdog at Southern Utah yesterday. Now the Vandals come back as 14-point dogs today as this line is simply too high. Idaho's 0-8 record has them undervalued right now as they have only lost one of their last six games by more than 13 points, and that was at Pac-12 opponent Utah.
The Thunderbirds are 11-30 ATS in their last 41 games as a home favorite. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Idaho is 7-0 ATS in its last eight road games after allowing 80 points or more in two straight games. The Vandals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games off a loss by 6 points or less. Roll with Idaho Saturday.
|01-09-21||Colts v. Bills -6||Top||24-27||Loss||-110||41 h 59 m||Show|
20* Colts/Bills AFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Buffalo -6
Nobody is playing better than the Buffalo Bills coming into the playoffs. The Bills would be on a 10-game winning streak if not for the fluke Hail Mary by Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. But that loss may have been a blessing in disguise because the Bills have been dominant ever since.
Indeed, the Bills have won six straight games all by double-digits. They are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. And this team continues to be undervalued week after week. They are lighting up the scoreboard with 37.9 points per game in their last eight games. Their defense is playing up to the level that it did last season. They are giving up just 18.3 points per game in their last six games.
Josh Allen is by far the superior quarterback in this matchup. I don't trust Philip Rivers to be able to match him score for score. Rivers is used to warm weather after playing in San Diego and also playing in a dome in Indianapolis. He will be out of his element here. Temperatures in Buffalo will be in the 20s around kickoff. I always like fading older quarterbacks with questionable arm strength like Rivers outdoors in the playoffs. We saw the Colts struggle outdoors early this season in elements when they lost 23-32 at Cleveland. They also lost outdoors at Pittsburgh in Week 16.
The Colts have played the single-easiest schedule int he entire NFL this season. They played the 32nd-ranked schedule. Buffalo played the 13th-toughest schedule. So that disparity in SOS definitely favors the Bills. The Colts went 2-4 against teams with winning records this season, while the Bills went 5-2 against teams with winning records, including 3-0 in their last three with all three wins by double-digits over Seattle by 10, Pittsburgh by 11 and Miami by 30.
And keep in mind the Bills rested their starters in the 2nd half of that 56-26 win over Miami last week. They will now be the fresher team here, which is a big factor considering this is the first game of the Wild Card round with kickoff set for 1:00 EST Saturday afternoon. The Colts found themselves in a dog fight with the Jaguars last week. They led 20-14 late in the fourth quarter with the Jaguars having the ball around the 50-yard line with a chance to take the lead.
The Bills are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. Indianapolis is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games as an underdog. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Buffalo. Take the Bills Saturday.
|01-08-21||Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 231||Top||105-115||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 231
I love the spot for this UNDER to come through for us Friday. The Clippers and Warriors just played on Wednesday, so they are familiar with one another. And they combined for just 209 points in a 108-101 victory for the Clippers.
Now this total has been set a whopping 22 points higher than that 209-point finish with a 231-point total. The oddsmakers have messed this one up. There's a good chance that the Warriors will be without Stephon Curry, who has an ankle injury. Patrick Beverly shut down Curry in the first meeting, limiting him to a season-low 13 points on 5-of-17 shooting. So even if he does play Beverly can slow him down again.
Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 230 or higher (Golden State) - revenging a same season loss, after a home game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 61-31 (66.3%) over the last five seasons.
The UNDER is 7-2-2 in Clippers last 11 games playing on one days' rest. The UNDER is 10-4-2 in Clippers last 16 games as a favorite. The UNDER is 9-4 in Warriors last 13 games playing on one days' rest. The UNDER is 4-1 in Warriors last five after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-08-21||Bulls +9.5 v. Lakers||115-117||Win||100||11 h 52 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +9.5
This is a bad spot for the Lakers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days. They showed some fatigue last night in a 109-118 loss to the Spurs as 8.5-point favorites. And now they are being overvalued again as 9.5-point favorites against Chicago tonight.
While the Lakers appear to be going through the motions after winning a title, the Bulls have been out to prove a point under first-year head coach Billy Donovan. They are showing the world that their young talent is finally starting to gel, and they are living up to their potential in the early going.
Indeed, the Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall as they have consistently been undervalued. They have won four of their last six games straight up with a 4-point loss to Sacramento and the other loss coming to the Bucks. They upset Washington in both road meetings, upset Dallas 118-108 and upset Portland 111-108 as 9.5-point road dogs. They will hang with the Lakers tonight given the awful spot for Los Angeles.
Chicago is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games after covering three of its last four ATS coming in. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven gams as underdogs. Chicago is 6-0 ATS in its last six games playing on one days' rest. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Bulls Friday.
|01-08-21||Air Force +18.5 v. Boise State||69-80||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +18.5
I like the spot for Air Force tonight. They will be playing Boise State for the 2nd time in 3 days. They lost the first meeting 59-78 as 19-point dogs at Air Force. And now they are catching 18.5 points in the rematch here.
Air Force will clearly be the more motivated team in the rematch. And Boise State is overvalued with an 8-1 record and on an 8-game winning streak coming in. Look for the Broncos to let up enough here to allow the Falcons to cover this 18.5-point spread.
We just saw Boise State in this exact same situation falter in the two games prior to Air Force. After beating San Jose State 106-54 as a 22-point favorite, the Broncos came back and only beat the Spartans 87-86 as a 26-point favorite. That was a 51-point improvement for San Jose State in the rematch.
Air Force is 53-31 ATS in its last 84 games as a road underdog of 12.5 points or more. Boise State is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 home games after scoring 75 points or more in four straight coming in. Roll with Air Force Friday.
|01-07-21||UCLA -1 v. Arizona State||Top||81-75||Win||100||11 h 16 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA -1
The UCLA Bruins brought back all five starters this season and are a team I've been looking to back with every chance I get. And they've delivered by going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming to Ohio State. They also beat the likes of Marquette, Utah and Colorado during this stretch.
The Arizona State Sun Devils have been one of the most overrated teams in college basketball, and they continue to be tonight. The Sun Devils are 4-3 SU but 1-6 ATS this season. They are coming off a 63-76 home loss to UTEP as a 13-point favorite. And that game was on December 16th, so they have been off for three weeks, and thus there will be some rust with this team tonight.
UCLA is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a conference home win. The Bruins are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall. UCLA is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Sun Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games. Arizona State is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games overall. Roll with UCLA Thursday.
|01-07-21||Spurs +7 v. Lakers||Top||118-109||Win||100||12 h 41 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7
The San Antonio Spurs are playing with double-revenge here. They will be facing the Lakers for the 3rd time since December 30th. They lost the first two meetings but covered in the second meeting in a 6-point loss as 7.5-point dogs. And now they are 7-point dogs in the trilogy and I think they have a great chance to win outright tonight.
The situation is a good one for the Spurs, who will be staying in Los Angeles after their 116-113 upset of the Clippers as 7-point dogs on Tuesday. The situation is a terrible one for the Lakers, who are now back home following a four-game road trip. I love fading teams in their first game back home following a long trip.
The Lakers will be playing their 7th game in 12 games here, and they have another game tomorrow against Chicago. There's a good chance they rest one or both of their two stars tonight in Anthony Davis and Lebron James. They are both listed as questionable tonight with James dealing with an ankle injury, and Davis dealing with a strained thigh muscle. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is out with an ankle injury as well.
Conversely, the Spurs now have LaMarcus Aldridge back in the lineup. He didn't play in either of their first two meetings with the Lakers. The Spurs are 52-25 ATS in their last 77 games when revenging a loss. San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog. The Lakers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win. Bet the Spurs Thursday.
|01-07-21||76ers v. Nets +110||109-122||Win||110||8 h 20 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn Nets ML +110
The Brooklyn Nets showed they could still get it done without Kevin Durant with an impressive 130-96 home win over the Utah Jazz as 4.5-point dogs on Tuesday. Now they come back as home underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight in a game I expect them to win outright.
The spot couldn't be any worse for the 76ers. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days here. They just played a 141-136 shootout with Washington last night, which will have taken a lot out of them. Don't be surprised to see them rest some key players tonight against the Nets.
Philadelphia is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games following four or more consecutive wins. The 76ers are 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games following two or more consecutive home wins. Philadelphia is 6-21-1 ATS in its last 28 road games. Take the Nets on the Money Line Thursday.
|01-06-21||Oklahoma +12 v. Baylor||Top||61-76||Loss||-110||11 h 49 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma +12
The No. 2 ranked Baylor Bears are 9-0 this season. The longer a team stays unbeaten the harder it is to cover spreads because expectations are so high that they are hard to live up to. And players start to become complacent as well.
We've seen that in Baylor's last two games as they failed to cover as 44-point favorites in a 29-point win over Alcorn State. They also failed to cover as 15.5-point favorites in an 11-point win over Iowa State, which may be the worst team in the Big 12.
Now Oklahoma takes its shot at Baylor. The Sooners are 4-1 in their last five games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points to Texas Tech, 67-69. They also beat West Virginia 75-71 at home. This is a veteran squad that can hang with a team like Baylor. They only lost 57-61 at Baylor as 11-point underdogs last season.
The Sooners are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog. The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.
|01-06-21||Jazz v. Knicks +7.5||100-112||Win||100||9 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +7.5
Tom Thibodeau quietly has the New York Knicks maximizing their potential in the early going. The Knicks are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five gmaes overall with upset wins over Milwaukee, Indiana, Atlanta and Cleveland. Their lone loss came on the road to Toronto.
Now they take on a tired Utah Jazz team coming off a 96-130 loss as a 5-point favorite at Brooklyn last night. The Jazz will now be playing their 5th game in 7 days and the fatigue is starting to show. There's no way the Jazz should be favored by 7.5 points here given the terrible spot with the 5th game in 7 days.
Plays against favorites (Utah) - off an embarrassing loss by 20 points or more as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Jazz are 6-22-2 ATS in their last 30 games as favorites. Utah is 6-24 ATS in the last 30 meetings, including 3-12 ATS in the last 15 meetings in New York. Take the Knicks Wednesday.
|01-06-21||Rockets v. Pacers -2||Top||107-114||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers -2
The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in the early going. They are loaded with talent at the top with their Big 3 of Victor Oladipo (20.8 PPG, 45.5% 3-pointers), Domanta Sabonis (20.6 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 6.7 APG, 52.9% 3-pointers) and Malcolm Brogdon (22.0 PPG, 7.0 APG, 44.7% 3-pointers), who are all All-Star caliber players. And they love new head coach Nate Bjorkgren.
"First and foremost, coach got all the fight in the world," Oladipo said following an OT win over the Pelicans in which they trailed by 6 with 30 seconds left. "The whole time down the stretch, with a minute left, with 38 seconds left, he was telling us 'it's not over, it's not over.' Tha's all he kept screaming from the sideline. We believed that, and we made something happen down the stretch."
"We've got one of the best coaches in the league, if not the best," Malcolm Brogdon said afterward. "I'm going to continue to say that during the season and make sure people understand how well-coached we are. Nate puts everybody in a position to play their game and show their strengths."
While the Pacers are feeling good about themselves and playing up to their potential, the Houston Rockets are a mess right now. It's hard to know whether or not James Harden even wants to be there. And they are trying to implement a bunch of new pieces, and it has hurt them defensively. The Rockets are 2-3 this season and coming off an upset home loss to the Mavericks, 100-113.
The Rockets are 20th in defensive efficiency and giving up 115.6 points per game. That's bad news for them as they will be up against a Pacers team that is 8th in offensive efficiency, scoring 114.9 points per game and shooting 49.3% as a team. The Pacers are also 12th in defensive efficiency this season.
The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games. The Rockets are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games following a SU loss. The Pacers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 Wednesday games. Houston is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 trips to Indiana. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.
|01-06-21||Rhode Island v. Richmond -4||73-80||Win||100||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Richmond -4
Richmond has played a brutal schedule and has gotten through it at 7-3. They have wins over Kentucky, Wofford, Vanderbilt, Loyola-Chicago and Davidson and losses to St. Bonaventure, West Virginia and Hofstra. And they haven't lost two games in a row yet, so this veteran team that returned four starters has shown some resilience.
Now I expect the Spiders to bounce back from a 3-point loss to St. Bonaventure with a win and cover here against Rhode Island. This is a 5-5 Rams team that is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. They have a common opponent in Davidson, which Richmond beat 80-74 on the road, while Rhode Island lost to 58-67 at home.
The Spiders are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. Richmond is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Spiders are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites. Take Richmond Wednesday.
|01-05-21||Kansas -5.5 v. TCU||93-64||Win||100||13 h 41 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas -5.5
I love the spot for the Kansas Jayhawks today. They are coming off their worst home loss in program history 59-84 to Texas on Saturday. It's safe to say they are going to come back highly motivated for a victory here Monday.
The Jayhawks had won eight straight coming into that game with their only previous loss coming to top-ranked Gonzaga. It's safe to say that loss was an aberration. Now the Jayhawks face a TCU team that is overvalued off five straight victories coming in.
Kansas simply owns TCU. The Jayhawks are 16-1 SU in the last 17 meetings. Kansas is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following a loss by 20 points or more. The Jayhawks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Big 12 road games. Kansas is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Jayhawks are 43-19-3 ATS in their last 65 games following a SU loss. Take Kansas Tuesday.
|01-05-21||Lakers v. Grizzlies UNDER 218.5||Top||94-92||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER 218.5
The Lakers and Grizzlies will square off for the second time in three days. The familiarity between these teams will lead us to an UNDER tonight, plus the fact that the Grizzlies are an UNDER team now that they are without their best player in JA Morant for a few weeks.
It's amazing the oddsmakers haven't adjusted this total much off the first meeting. The Lakers won 108-94 for 202 combined points. And now we have a 218.5-point total for the rematch here tonight, which is way too high.
The Lakers are an UNDER team as well as the UNDER is 5-0 in their last five games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in Grizzlies last five games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Lakers last six road games. The UNDER is 8-0 in Grizzlies last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings. These last three trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|01-04-21||Hornets +9.5 v. 76ers||Top||101-118||Loss||-110||9 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +9.5
I like the spot for the Charlotte Hornets tonight. They will get their chance at revenge on the Philadelphia 76ers after losing to them 112-127 on Saturday. Now they get to face them again just two days later and will be the more motivated team in this rematch.
The Hornets shot just 41.3% as a team while the 76ers shot 59.3% as a team in that first meeting. It's actually surprising the 76ers didn't win by more than 15 with that disparity. You have to think the Hornets will close the gap in the rematch.
Remember, this is a Hornets team that pulled off two impressive upsets over Dallas as 8.5-point dogs and Brooklyn as 11-point dogs prior to two bad losses to Memphis and Philadelphia. So it's a good time to 'buy low' on them. It's also a good time to 'sell high' on the 76ers, who are off to a 5-1 start this season and have won and covered three in a row.
Plays against home favorites (Philadelphia) - after allowing 110 points or more against an opponent that's off two straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Hornets are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 games off two or more consecutive losses. The 76ers are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games off two or more consecutive ATS wins. Charlotte is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog. Bet the Hornets Monday.
|01-04-21||Southern Illinois +11 v. Drake||Top||55-86||Loss||-110||9 h 46 m||Show|
20* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +11
I was on Southern Illinois yesterday. They played well early and led big but got crushed over the final 25 minutes and lost 55-73 at Drake as 10-point dogs. Now they come back as 11-point dogs here in the rematch in this back-to-back situation and will be the more motivated team.
Drake is overvalued now after starting 12-0 SU & 9-0 ATS this season. And with every win and cover, the Bulldogs will continue getting more and more respect from oddsmakers. They will also start to feel the pressure of trying to keep this unbeaten streak alive.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on Southern Illinois. The Salukis opened 7-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season before two straight losses to Evansville and Drake coming in. Keep in mind they upset Drake in both meetings last season with a 66-49 home win and a 79-72 road win. And they want revenge from that loss yesterday now.
The underdog is 18-7-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take Southern Illinois Monday.
|01-04-21||Monmouth +3 v. Siena||62-76||Loss||-105||7 h 36 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Monmouth +3
Monmouth is in a great spot today. They want revenge from a 77-78 loss at Siena as 2.5-point dogs yesterday. Now they come back as 3-point dogs in the rematch. The Hawks will be motivated for revenge while the Saints will relax. I expect the Hawks to win this game outright.
Monmouth is 3-3 SU & 4-1-1 ATS this season. The Hawks have two losses by a combined 3 points this season, which is how close they are being to 5-1. Siena will be playing just its second game of the season after missing all of 2020 with COVID problems.
The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Monmouth is 6-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Siena. The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss. Roll with Monmouth Monday.
|01-03-21||Blazers v. Warriors +5.5||122-137||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* Blazers/Warriors NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +5.5
I like the situation for the Golden State Warriors tonight. They want revenge from a 98-123 home loss to the Blazers on Friday just two days ago. And now they go from being 3.5-point dogs in the first meeting to 5.5-point dogs in the rematch, so there's value here.
The Warriors will clearly be the more motivated team in this situation. And they aren't going to shoot as poorly as they did in the first meeting, going 7-of-35 (20%) from 3-point range. Conversely, the Blazers won't shoot as well as they did last time. They shot 20-of-43 (46.5%) from distance.
Plays against road teams (Portland) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Blazers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a losing record. Golden State is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 home meetings with Portland. Roll with the Warriors Sunday.
|01-03-21||Washington Football Team -1 v. Eagles||Top||20-14||Win||100||103 h 31 m||Show|
20* Washington/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington -1
Washington wins the NFC East with a win Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. It's safe to say they'll be max motivated. I don't think you can say the same for the Eagles, who were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 17-37 loss at Dallas last week. I always like fading teams the week after they have been eliminated from the playoffs.
The Eagles have now lost six of their last even games overall. Their injury situation is awful. They led 14-3 at Dallas las week before Fletcher Cox went out with a stinger. Dallas outscored them 34-3 the rest of the way. It's unlikely that Cox will be back this week, and he's their most important player on defense, especially when it comes to stopping the run and getting after the passer.
The Eagles are also missing a handful of players in the secondary. The Cardinals and Cowboys have both torched their defense the last two weeks. The Cardinals had 526 yards against them, while the Cowboys put up 513 yards against them. The talent level they are putting on the field might be the worst in the NFL right now on the defensive side of the ball.
Washington is likely to get Alex Smith back at quarterback this season. Washington is 10-5 with Smith as a starter, and 6-26 with everyone else over the last few seasons. I don't think they would have let Dwayne Haskins go if they didn't know Smith would return this week. There's a good chance they get back their best receiver in Terry McClaurin from injury this week as well. And RB Antonio Gibson returned last week and is back to full strength. So the matchup is a good one for this Washington offense.
But it's the Washington defense that has me excited to back them again this week. They have held six straight opponents to 20 points or fewer. No defense is playing better than theirs right now. They give up just 21.0 points per game this season. They held the Eagles to just 17 points and 26 total yards in their first meeting this season in their 27-17 victory. They also forced three turnovers, and Jalen Hurts had three turnovers against the Cowboys last week. Chase Allen and company will make life difficult on the rookie Hurts in this one. And it helps that Washington now has some game film on him after starting the last three weeks.
Washington is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The only two games they lost came with Haskins as a starter, and they were competitive in both with a 5-point loss to Seattle and a 7-point loss to Carolina. They upset the Cowboys, Steelers and 49ers with Smith at QB and I was on them in all three games. Even Taylor Heineke gave them a spark when he replaced Haskins last week, and they are good enough to win with him even if Smith can't go. I recommend betting this game early because when they announce Smith as a starter I expect this line to go to -3.
Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off an upset loss as a road favorite. Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 350 or more total yards last game. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. NFC East opponents. The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. Take Washington Sunday.
|01-03-21||Jazz v. Spurs +5||Top||130-109||Loss||-115||8 h 24 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +5
The San Antonio Spurs are highly motivated for a victory Sunday. They have lost three striaght since opening 2-0. And two of those losses came to the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers. One was by 6 points and they also lost to the Pelicans by 3 points. So they have been competitive in all but one game this season.
The Utah Jazz appear to be overvalued in the early going. They are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They suffered upset losses to the Timberwolves as 9-point favorites and the Suns as 4-point favorites. They also only beat the Thunder 110-109 as 9-point favorites.
The Spurs are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games off two or more consecutive losses. The Jazz 5-21-2 ATS in their last 28 games as favorites. San Antonio is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games as a home underdog. The Spurs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 home meetings with the Jazz. Bet the Spurs Sunday.
|01-03-21||Southern Illinois +11 v. Drake||Top||55-73||Loss||-110||8 h 39 m||Show|
20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois +11
The secret is out on the Drake Bulldogs. They've been the best covering team in all of college basketball over the past couple seasons. And now that they are 11-0 SU & 8-0 ATS to start this season, the word is out on the street on them. It's definitely time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs now as 11-point favorites against Southern Illinois.
This is a very good Southern Illinois team that probably shouldn't be double-digit dogs to anyone in the Missouri Valley. The Salukis are 7-1 SU & 5-2 ATS this season with an upset win at Butler. But they are coming off their first loss of the season to Evansville. It was predictable as they had beaten Evansville the day before and had this game with Drake on deck. It was a letdown spot, but off that upset loss it's a good time to 'buy low' on the Salukis now.
Southern Illinois went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Drake last season with two upset wins as underdogs. They won 66-49 at home as 1.5-point dogs and 79-72 on the road as 5.5-point dogs. And now they are being undervalued once again in their first meeting of 2020-21.
The Salukis are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The underdog is 18-6-2 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Salukis are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after giving up 5 or fewer offensive rebounds in their previous game. Bet Southern Illinois Sunday.
|01-03-21||Saints v. Panthers +7||Top||33-7||Loss||-114||99 h 39 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers +7
The New Orleans Saints are still alive for the No. 1 seed, but they would need a lot to go right and they know it. They'd need the Packers to lose to the Bears and the Seahawks to beat the 49ers, which would put them in a 3-way tie with both. They would win the tiebreaker based on their record against NFC teams in that scenario.
It's just unlikely to happen, and I think with the Saints knowing it, don't be surprised if they aren't 100% 'all in' for this Week 17 game. They would be better off resting their guys and getting ready for the playoffs. I think this line is adjusted too much in the Saints' favor because technically they still have something to play for, but the reality is that they aren't likely to improve their seeding.
What we do know is that the Carolina Panthers show up every week for head coach Matt Rhule. Washington had a chance to clinch the NFC East last week, and Carolina played spoiler in a 20-13 victory. And now the Panthers have a shot to play spoiler here against a hated division rival and will be 'all in' for their final game of the 2020-21 season.
It's also true that Carolina is much better than is 5-10 record would indicate. Indeed, eight of those 10 losses came by one score. The only two blowout losses came in their two meetings with Tampa Bay. They only lost 24-27 to the Saints in their first meeting this season, so they already proved they could play with them.
New Orleans is getting too much respect off its 52-33 win over a Vikings team that appeared to quit last week, at least defensively. The Panthers will offer a lot more resistance here. The Panthers held the Packers to 24 points and 291 total yards two weeks ago and should have won that game outright. And last week they held Washington to 13 points and forced four turnovers.
Teddy 'Covers' Bridgewater just keeps getting the money. He is 36-13 ATS in his career as a starter, including 24-5 ATS as an underdog. And the Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs this season. This just goes to show that they come to play every week under Rhule, and that they have lost so many close games this season that they are consistently undervalued.
Injuries are starting to pile up for the Saints. They are without three key receivers in Michael Thomas, Deonte Harris and Tre'quan Smith. They just lost starting LB Kwon Alexander to a season-ending injury last week. He was starting to play well after getting claimed from the 49ers. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (66 tackles, 1 INT) will be out with COVID. Fellow S Marcus Williams (59 tackles, 3 INT), DE Trey Hendrickson (12.5 sacks) CB Patrick Robinson (2 INT) and TE Josh Hill are all questionable.
New Orleans is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after outrushing its last opponents by 150 or more yards. Carolina is 6-0 ATS vs. teams that average 29 or more points per game over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with only one loss by more than 5 points in those six meetings. The underdog is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|01-03-21||Duquesne v. George Washington +8||73-75||Win||100||3 h 20 m||Show|
15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on George Washington +8
I like the situation for George Washington today. They were beating 63-75 by Duquesne as 7.5-point dogs yesterday. Now they come back as 8-point dogs today in the rematch. They will be the more motivated team with revenge in mind, while the Dukes will likely relax and not want this game as badly.
George Washington is much better than its 2-7 record would indicate. In fact, that 12-point loss yesterday was its largest defeat of the season. The Colonials have four losses by 4 points or fewer this season. There is going to be value with this team moving forward due to their poor SU record.
Duquesne is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off a conference road win. The Dukes are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams who average 12 or fewer assists per game. Duquesne is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite. George Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog. The Colonials are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit home loss. Take George Washington Sunday.
|01-03-21||Falcons +7.5 v. Bucs||27-44||Loss||-120||6 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Falcons +7.5
The Atlanta Falcons show up week in and week out since Raheem Morris took over. And they'll certainly show up in Week 17 against a division rival in the Tampa Bay Bucs. They want revenge after blowing a 24-7 lead to the Bucs in their first meeting this season just two weeks ago. And they don't have to wait long to get it.
While the Falcons have lost four straight, all four losses were by 5 points or fewer, and three were to playoff teams. They only lost 16-21 to the Saints and had a chance to win the game on their final drive. They lost 17-20 to the Chargers. They lost 27-31 to the Bucs. And they only lost 14-17 to the Chiefs last week as double-digit underdogs. They had a chance to win the game or send it to overtime late, but their kicker missed the game-tying field goal.
What makes the Falcons so intriguing all of a sudden is that they have played some tremendous defense down the stretch under Morris, who is their defensive coordinator. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall. And holding the Chiefs to just 17 points just goes to show how good this defense is playing right now.
The Bucs are overvalued off their 47-7 win over a Detroit Lions team that has quit and is banged up. Now they go from being 6-point favorites over the Falcons two weeks ago to 7.5-point favorites over them this week. That adjustment is not warranted considering the Falcons played them tough in that first meeting and only lost by 4 points.
And while the Falcons are very healthy right now, the Bucs are going to be without several key players in their defensive front seven. They will be without LB Shaquil Barrett, LB Devin White, DL Steve McClendon and DT Jeremiah Ledbetter. And I think this line is higher than it should be because Bruce Arians has come out publicly and said the Bucs are going to try and win and not rest starters. That has given us extra line value here. Don't be surprised if the Bucs do pull some starters in the second half of this one.
The Bucs are just 1-3 SU in their last four home games with their only win coming against the Vikings in a game that was closer than the 26-14 score would indicate. The Vikings left 10 points on the board with three missed field goals and a missed extra point. The Vikings outgained the Bucs in that contest as well.
The Falcons have lost just once by more than 7 points in their last 11 games overall. That was a 9-24 loss to the Saints in which they led 9-3 just before halftime before getting shut out the rest of the way. That makes for a 10-1 system backing the Falcons pertaining to this 7.5-point spread. Getting points with the Falcons has been a very profitable move. Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog. Tampa Bay is 8-21-1 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite. Roll with the Falcons Sunday.
|01-02-21||North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7||Top||27-41||Win||100||38 h 2 m||Show|
20* UNC/Texas A&M Orange Bowl BAILOUT on Texas A&M -7
The Texas A&M Aggies felt snubbed that they didn't get into the four-team playoff. Now they are about to take out their frustration on North Carolina here in the Orange Bowl. And Jimbo Fisher always takes a workmanlike approach to these games and will have his team ready to go.
"You get in, you get out, and you've got to move on," Fisher said. "you got to the future, and listen, we get an opportunity to play in the Orange Bowl, like I said, one of the great bowl games in the history of this sport."
Texas A&M went 8-1 this season with its only loss coming to Alabama. The Aggies were led by a dominant defense that gave up just 21.1 points and 316.6 yards per game this season. Their defense will be by far the best unit on the field in this matchup. And it's by far better than the UNC defense, which allows 28.4 points and 395.8 yards per game.
North Carolina is known for a high-powered offense, putting up great numbers against suspect ACC defenses all season. But they were upset by both Florida State and Virginia. And the one defense they faced that was actually pretty good was Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish held them to 17 points and 298 total yards. This Texas A&M defense is capable of doing the same thing.
While Texas A&M had minimal opt-outs and should have basically their entire roster available, UNC had several key players opt out. The Tar Heels will be without two 1,000-yard rushers in RB's Javonte Williams and Michael Carter. They will also be without a 1,000-yard receiver in Dyami Brown. Plus, the leader of their defense and leading tackler in LB Chazz Surratt (92 tackles) has opted out as well. With all of this NFL talent out, the Tar Heels will be a shell of their former selves.
Plays on any team (Texas A&M) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPC or more), after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Aggies are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. Texas A&M is 20-9-1 ATS in its last 30 games as a favorite. The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Take Texas A&M Saturday.
|01-02-21||California +3 v. Oregon State||64-73||Loss||-110||8 h 1 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California +3
The Cal Golden Bears get their shot at revenge on Oregon State after losing 63-71 to the Beavers in their first game of the season. They have improved rapidly since that first meeting and come in playing their best basketball of the season.
Indeed, the Golden Bears are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Their only loss was a 13-point loss at Oregon in which they covered as 13.5-point dogs. They upset San Francisco as 3.5-point dogs, crush Northridge by 31 and also beat Seattle.
Oregon State is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. That includes upset losses to Wyoming as 9-point favorites and Portland as 16.5-point favorites. And they barely beat Portland State by 5 as 13-point favorites during this stretch. They should not be favorites in this rematch with the way they are playing of late.
Oregon State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games. The Beavers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites. Roll with California Saturday.
|01-02-21||Kings +5 v. Rockets||94-102||Loss||-110||7 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +5
The Sacramento Kings want revenge from a 119-122 loss as 5.5-point dogs on New Year's Eve to the Houston Rockets. They don't have to wait long to get it as they will get to face the Rockets again in Houston just two days later here Saturday.
I have been very impressed with the Kings this season. They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS despite playing all five games as underdogs against a tough schedule. They upset the Nuggets twice and the Suns once and were obviously competitive against the Rockets. This is one of the most underrated, young talented teams in the NBA early in the season.
I just don't like the mindset of the Houston Rockets right now. James Harden doesn't know if he wants to be there, and they're trying to implement a bunch of new pieces they acquired in the offseason. Plus COVID struck the team so they haven't had much practice time together. And it has shown with a 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS start this season.
The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Houston is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Kings Saturday.
|01-02-21||Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5||Top||17-34||Win||100||75 h 58 m||Show|
20* Oregon/Iowa State Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Iowa State -3.5
The Iowa State Cyclones have a sour taste in their mouths from losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Cyclones got blown out by Notre Dame in their bowl game last year and lost a heartbreaker to Washington State the year before. They won't be lacking any motivation here. I have no doubt this senior-laden team wants to finish this season with an exclamation point in what has been one of the greatest seasons in program history.
I do question Oregon's motivation coming off a Pac-12 Championship in which they were gifted a spot in the title game due to COVID problems at Washington. They beat USC 31-24, but that was one of the most misleading finals of the season.
Oregon only managed 243 total yards against USC but forced three turnovers, which was the difference. The DUcks were upset as 13-point favorites by Oregon State and as 9-point favorites by California in their final two games of the regular season. So that's basically three striaght games where Oregon has not played well.
The Big 12 looks great in bowl games thus far. Oklahoma State beat Miami 37-34, Texas beat Colorado 55-23 and Oklahoma beat Florida 55-20. So we've already seen a Big 12 vs. Pac-12 matchup in Texas' 55-23 win over Colorado. And that was a Texas team with a ton of opt-outs and a backup QB in the second half. And Iowa State beat Texas.
Oregon gave up 27.3 points and 409.5 yards per game this season. Iowa State only gave up 21.8 points and 343.1 yards per game as they had one of the best defenses in the Big 12. Oregon doesn't trust QB Tyler Shough to unleash him. Shough only had 91 passing yards against USC in the Pac-12 Championship.
Iowa State trusts Brock Purdy to make all the throws. He is completing 66.4% of his passes for 2,594 yards with an 18-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season. He has also rushed for 343 yards and four scores. And the Cyclones had the leading rusher in the country in Breece Hall, who rushed for 1,436 yards and 19 touchdowns this season to put his name in the Heisman Trophy discussion.
Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games coming in. The Ducks are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS win. The Cyclones are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU loss. Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|01-02-21||Western Kentucky v. Charlotte +6||71-75||Win||100||6 h 1 m||Show|
15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte +6
Charlotte wants revenge from a 63-67 loss to Western Kentucky yesterday as a 7-point underdog. They don't have to wait long to get it as they will be playing each other again today. The 49ers will be the more motivated team in the rematch, and I expect them to cover this 6-point spread and possibly win outright.
This is a Charlotte team that has shown they can play with some good teams. They upset Davidson 63-52 as 10.5-point dogs as part of their three-game winning streak prior to losing to WKU. I expect the Hilltoppers to relax today after winning six straight coming in.
Western Kentucky has been winning but not covering, which means they continue to be overvalued. The Hilltoppers are now 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Four of their last five wins have come by 4 points or less.
Charlotte is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog. Western Kentucky is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game. Take Charlotte Saturday.
|01-02-21||Northern Iowa v. Evansville +6.5||61-65||Win||100||6 h 0 m||Show|
15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville +6.5
The Northern Iowa Panthers have been one of my favorite teams to fade in the early going. A big reason for that is they are missing their best player in AJ Green. Green's loss is huge as he averaged 19.7 PPG last season and is averaging 22.3 PPG this season. He is out for the year.
The Panthers have gone 2-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season. And now they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers once again today as 6.5-point road favorites over Evansville. It's a Purple Aces team that is on the improve.
Indeed, Evansville has gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. The two losses were both covers in a 9-point loss to Belmont and a 6-point loss to Southern Illinois. Then they avenged that loss to Southern Illinois and handed the Salukis their first loss in an 84-72 victory as 8-point dogs. Roll with Evansville Saturday.
|01-02-21||Niagara +101 v. Marist||Top||86-72||Win||101||4 h 2 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Niagara ML +101
Niagara will be highly motivated from a 61-63 loss to Marist yesterday. Now they don't have to wait long for revenge as they play each other for a second consecutive day. I look for the Purple Eagles to have their revenge and win this game.
They went from being -2 yesterday to underdogs today, and I don't think the move is warranted. They should be favored again, especially considering they are going to be the more motivated team here.
Plays on road dogs or PK (Niagara) - revenging a SU loss as a favorite against an opponent that's off two consecutive conference wins by 5 points or less are 70-31 (69.3%) ATS since 1997. Niagara is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 30 points or fewer in the first half of two straight games. Bet Niagara Saturday.
|01-01-21||Ohio State v. Clemson UNDER 68||Top||49-28||Loss||-109||14 h 12 m||Show|
25* Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ohio State/Clemson UNDER 68
Clemson and Ohio State are very familiar with one another having played in the playoffs three times since the 2013 season. That includes Clemson's 29-23 win last year that saw only 52 combined points. Familiarity favors defense, and I can't believe the books have set this total this high for the Sugar Bowl rematch.
Both teams are elite defensively. Clemson gives up 17.5 points and 298.5 yards per game this season. They held Notre Dame to 10 points and 263 total yards in the ACC Championship Game. And they have allowed just 12.3 points per game in their last three games coming in.
Ohio State gives up 21.0 points and 358.0 yards per game this season. They have held their last two opponents to 11.0 points per game, including their 22-10 win over Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game.
And we saw how the Northwestern defense was able to stop Justin Fields. He went just 12-of-27 passing for 114 yards with two interceptions and zero touchdowns. Fields is also battling a thumb injury. The Buckeyes are more of a running team, which is going to favor the UNDER here as they try and milk the clock and limit possessions for Trevor Lawrence. They average 45 rush attempts per game compared to 27 pass attempts.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Buckeyes last four bowl games. The UNDER is 5-1 in Buckeyes last six games as underdogs. The UNDER is 7-2 in Buckeyes last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 5-0 in Tigers last five playoff semifinal games. The UNDER is 7-2 in Tigers last nine bowl games as a favorite. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-01-21||Lakers v. Spurs +7||Top||109-103||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7
This is a great spot to back the San Antonio Spurs. They want revenge from a 107-121 loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, and they don't have to wait long to get it. Now they are 7-point underdogs in the rematch and will be the more motivated team here.
I expect the defending champion Lakers to relax, while the Spurs will have the gas pedal down for four quarters. And there's a decent chance the Spurs get back LaMarcus Aldridge, who sat out the first meeting with a knee injury. Either way, I like the Spurs to cover as Aldridge has actually not been great from an analytical standpoint. There's also a chance LeBron James sits as he is questionable with an ankle injury.
The Spurs are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games off two or more consecutive losses. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. San Antonio is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. Roll with the Spurs Friday.
|01-01-21||Niagara -1 v. Marist||61-63||Loss||-110||5 h 46 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Niagara -1
Head coach Greg Paulus, the former Duke standout, is in his second year at Niagara. I expect big things from him and this team this year. They returned all five starters from last year and four of their top five scorers.
After a slow start to the season due to COVID, this experienced team has found their stride. The Purple Eagles are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They crushed Fairfield twice by 17 and 20 points. And then they upset Albany as a 3.5-point dog. And now they will take down Marist tonight.
Marist is getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to its 5-1 start against an extremely soft schedule. Their six wins have come against Manhattan (twice), Canisius and Binghamton (twice). And it's worth noting two of those wins came in overtime. Now Marist will meet its match here against this experienced, talented Purple Eagles squad. Take Niagara Friday.
|12-31-20||Michigan v. Maryland +2||Top||84-73||Loss||-109||10 h 17 m||Show|
20* Michigan/Maryland ESPN No-Brainer on Maryland +2
It's time to 'sell high' on the Michigan Wolverines after their 7-0 start against a soft schedule. They got to play their first six games of the season all at home with their only decent opponent being a 62-58 win over Penn State. And their only road game this season came at Nebraska, which is the worst team in the Big Ten.
This is a big step up in class for the Wolverines against a Maryland team that has already been tested. The Terrapins are 6-3 this season with their only losses coming to Clemson and Purdue on the road, as well as Rutgers at home. They proved what they were capable of last time out with a 70-64 win at Wisconsin as a 7.5-point dog.
I like that Maryland has been active lately and will be the sharper team because of it. It will be their 4th game since December 22nd. Meanwhile, the Wolverines will be playing just their 2nd game since December 13th. I imagine they will be pretty rusty here.
The Terrapins are 5-1 at home this season and winning by 16.3 points per game. Maryland beat Michigan 83-70 at home last season. The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Maryland Thursday.
|12-31-20||West Virginia v. Army +7||Top||24-21||Win||100||27 h 48 m||Show|
25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Army +7
The Army Black Knights have put together another great season under head coach Jeff Monken, who is quickly becoming one of the best coaches in program history. They sit at 9-2 on the season and will be highly motivated for a victory in the Liberty Bowl to get to 10 wins.
Army went from being a huge snub from a bowl game to finally getting a game against West Virginia, which was announced on December 21st. Monken fought for a bowl game and got it done for his team. Now I expect his players to respond in a great way here and make the most of this opportunity.
Give West Virginia credit for accepting this game, but it's not going to go well for them. The Mountaineers have had just over a week to get ready for the triple-option. They never see this physical style in the Big 12 and won't be ready for it. Players hate to face triple-option teams, which is why you see so many Military schools have so much success year after year.
We saw this West Virginia defense get gashed on the ground down the stretch. They gave up 179 or more rushing yards three times over their final five games, including 236 by Iowa State in their 6-42 loss in the season finale. And they didn't have to play Oklahoma, so their season-long stats look good, but they are a little skewed to say the least.
Army is going to punch WVU in the mouth for four quarters with a rushing attack that ranked fourth in the nation at 281.3 yards per game. They had four different players rush for between 401 and 502 yards, so they are a balanced attack that will hit you from everywhere they can on the ground.
This is a great Army defense that is giving up just 14.0 points and 271.1 yards per game as wlell. West Virginia's weakness is on offense at 26.8 points per game this season. Their offense really struggled down the stretch against the better competition they faced. They managed just 14.3 points per game in their final three games and also managed just 13 points against Oklahoma State earlier this season.
West Virginia is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games as a neutral field favorite, including 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less. The Mountaineers are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 bowl games, including 0-6 ATS in their last six bowl games. Bet Army in the Liberty Bowl Thursday.
|12-31-20||Cavs v. Pacers -7.5||99-119||Win||100||5 h 22 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers -7.5
The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are a blown 17-point lead against the Celtics from being 4-0 this season. First-year head coach Nate Bjorkgren is doing a tremendous job with this team.
Of course, it helps that the Pacers have their two best players healthy this season, which wasn't the case last year. Victor Oladipo (22.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG) and Domantas Sabonis (21.8 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 7.3 APG) are two of the more underrated players in the NBA and off to fast starts. Malcolm Brogdon (20.8 PPG, 6.5 APG) is also healthy this season after missing some time last year.
The Cavaliers are overvalued after starting 3-1 this year. Their three wins came against Charlotte, Detroit and Philadelphia. They then lost 86-95 to the Knicks last time out. And the Cavaliers now have a lot of injury problems that they didn't have to start the season. They will be without Kevin Love, Dylan Windler, Isaac Okoro, Kevin Porter Jr. and Matthew Dellavedova.
Indiana has won four of its last five meetings with Cleveland all by 7 points or more. The Pacers are 22-9-2 ATS in the last 33 meetings. Cleveland is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after covering three of its last four ATS coming in. The Cavaliers are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take the Pacers Thursday.
|12-30-20||Hornets +8 v. Mavs||Top||118-99||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +8
The Dallas Mavericks are overvalued off their shocking 124-73 win over the Clippers last time out. They had lost 115-138 to the Lakers and 102-106 to the Suns in their two prior games, so it came out of nowhere. And the Mavericks are still without Kristaps Porzingis, so they probably shouldn't be favored by 8 points against anyone.
The Hornets are 1-2 SU this season with an impressive 106-104 win over the Nets as 11.5-point dogs to flash their potential. They only lost 107-109 to the Thunder and 114-121 to the Cavs, so they were competitive in both losses. And I expect them to be competitive here against the Mavericks and stay within this 8-point spread.
The Hornets are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Charlotte is a perfect 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog. The Hornets are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Mavericks are 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games following a win. Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|12-30-20||Florida v. Oklahoma -2.5||Top||20-55||Win||100||51 h 42 m||Show|
20* Florida/Oklahoma Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Oklahoma -2.5
The Oklahoma Sooners have been one of the best teams in the country since a shocking 1-2 start this season with losses to Kansas State and Iowa State to open Big 12 play. They have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS since while outscoring the opposition by 23.0 points per game. They will win their 8th straight here in the Cotton Bowl against Florida.
Oklahoma has familiarity playing inside AT&T Stadium having just beating Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship. They will not be awe struck one bit, and it's an advantage for them getting to play there again less than two weeks later. And they will be motivated to knock off an SEC opponent here and put an exclamation point on what has been a tremendous turnaround season.
Oklahoma has another high-powered offense this year averaging 41.8 points per game. Spencer Rattler came on strong starting with the win over Texas. He completed 68% of his passes for 2,784 yards with a 25-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for five scores. Rattler and this Oklahoma offense should pick apart a Gators defense that ranked 78th national in yards per pass attempt (7.6) and 93rd in passer rating (145.6).
But the key to this Sooners team is that they have the best defense they've had in the Lincoln Riley era. They give up just 21.9 points and 334.6 yards per game. They have been tremendous against the run, allowing 92 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry. Coordinator Alex Grinch has built a unit that thrives against fling-it-around schemes like this one run by Florida.
Florida is going to need to be able to run the football considering they will be without their top four receivers in this game. WR Kedarius Toney (70 receptions, 984 yards, 10 TD), TE Kyle Pitts (43, 770, 12 TD) and WR Trevon Grimes (38, 589, 9 TD) will all be sitting out this game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Jacob Copeland (23, 435, 3 TD) is also out due to COVID-19. Even with star QB Kyle Trask at the helm, this offense won't be anywhere close to firing on all cylinders.
I think Oklahoma is happy to be here as they were eliminated from the four-team playoff early in the season and have earned their way to this Cotton Bowl. I think Florida is not happy to be here as they had an outside shot at the four-team playoff down the stretch after an 8-1 start, but lost their final two games. They lost as 23-point favorites to LSU and then to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. I always like fading teams after playing Alabama. They won't be nearly as excited to play Oklahoma as they were Alabama, and that is evident with all these opt-outs.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Florida) - a good team outscoring opponents by 7-plus points per game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Gators are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf. The Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC opponents. Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.
|12-30-20||Eastern Illinois v. Eastern Kentucky -3.5||61-69||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Eastern Kentucky -3.5
Eastern Kentucky returned four starters this season and is off to a 7-2 SU & 5-2 ATS start this season. They took Xavier to overtime in one of their losses as 16-point underdogs. That's a Xavier team that is 8-1 this season.
Eastern Illinois is just 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS this season. They lost by 10 to Wisconsin and by 25 to Marquette as well as a loss to a down Dayton team. They also lost to a bad Evansville team as 3-point favorites. They only beat Western Illinois 92-88 as 11.5-point favorites and needed overtime to beat a bad Wisconsin-Green Bay team as 5.5-point favorites. Their only blowout win came 78-56 against Chicago State, which is one of the worst teams in the country, and they failed to cover as 26-point favorites.
Given these results, it's clear that Eastern Kentucky should be more than a 3.5-point favorite in this game tonight. Not to mention Eastern Kentucky won both meetings with Eastern Illinois last year despite being underdogs in both games. And they returned more talent and experience than Eastern Illinois did this season.
Eastern Illinois is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games coming in. The Panthers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Colonels are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites. The Colonels are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Roll with Eastern Kentucky Wednesday.
|12-30-20||Richmond +1 v. Davidson||Top||80-74||Win||100||8 h 7 m||Show|
20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Richmond +1
Richmond is a team I'm looking to back a lot this season since they returned four starters from last year. And it has paid off for the most part in the early going as they are 6-2 SU against a brutal schedule.
We're going to get a motivated Richmond team off an upset loss to Hofstra last time out. They have wins over Kentucky, Wofford, Northern Iowa, Vanderbilt and Loyola-Chicago this season. Their only other loss came to West Virginia, one of the best teams in the country.
Now the Spiders open Atlantic 10 play against Davidson, who has losses to Texas, Providence and Charlotte this season. The Wildcats are now getting too much respect off two straight wins over Rhode Island and Vanderbilt.
Richmond won both meetings with Davidson last season 80-63 at home and 70-64 on the road. It will be more of the same in their first meeting of 2020-21. The Spiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet Richmond Wednesday.
|12-30-20||La Salle +12.5 v. Dayton||67-65||Win||100||8 h 7 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on La Salle +12.5
The Dayton Flyers are way overvalued in the early going this season. They lost a lot from last year's team that was one of the best in the country, including Wooden Award winner Obi Toppin. I'll gladly fade them here as 12.5-point favorites against La Salle in this Atlantic 10 opener for both teams.
Dayton is 4-1 SU but just 2-3 ATS. Each of their five games this season have been decided by 6 points or less. That includes a 66-63 win over Eastern Illinois as 14-point favorites and a 66-60 win over Northern Kentucky as 11.5-point favorites.
La Salle is just 3-5 SU this season but has been competitive in almost all their losses. The Explorers are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They upset Drexel 58-48 as 3-point road dogs, covered as 3-point favorites in a 71-61 win over Delaware, and only lost 71-84 at Maryland as 16.5-point dogs last time out.
The Flyers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. La Salle is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games off two consecutive non-conference games. The Explorers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games. The Explorers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game. These four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Explorers tonight. Take La Salle Wednesday.
|12-29-20||Colorado +8.5 v. Texas||Top||23-55||Loss||-114||13 h 29 m||Show|
20* Colorado/Texas Alamo Bowl BAILOUT on Colorado +8.5
Karl Dorrell's first year at Colorado brought with it Pac-12 Coach of the Year honors. The Buffaloes were the surprise of the Pac-12 with a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS record with their only loss coming to Utah in the season finale. And now the Buffaloes are extremely happy to be playing in the Alamo Bowl.
The roles are reversed for Texas this year. They beat a flat Utah team in the Alamo Bowl that just missed the 4-team playoff after losing in the Pac-12 Championship. The Longhorns were the team that wanted to be there. I don't think they will want to be playing in the Alamo Bowl for a second consecutive season after having higher expectations during the regular season of winning a Big 12 title and coming up short.
Now Texas will be without several key players who have opted out, showing they don't care much about winning this game. They will be without leading receiver Brennan Eagles, left tackle Samuel Cosmi and another starter in senior Derek Kerstetter. There's also some uncertainty with right guard Denzel Okafor, who could miss the game due to COVID-19 protocols. The Longhorns are likely to start two true freshmen up front.
Colorado RB Jarek Broussard earned Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year honors this season by rushing for over 800 yards and 6.3 per carry in just five games. Dual-threat QB Sam Noyer is tough to deal with as he led the Buffaloes with five rushing touchdowns. And slowing down these two will be more difficult considering Texas will be without star DE/LB Joseph Ossai. He wreaks havoc in opposing backfields with 5.5 sacks and three forced fumbles this season.
Dorrell is 13-5 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Colorado. Dorrell is 9-2 ATS after allowing 37 points or more as the coach of the Buffaloes. It's clear that Colorado wants to be here more with all of these opt outs by the Longhorns. And they should be able to stay within a touchdown of Texas and likely pull off the upset. Bet Colorado in the Alamo Bowl Tuesday.
|12-29-20||Bucks -5 v. Heat||144-97||Win||100||10 h 0 m||Show|
15* Bucks/Heat TNT ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Milwaukee Bucks after opening the season 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS. They lost on banked 3-pointer by the Celtics just before the buzzer. They crushed Golden State 138-99 to flash their potential. And the buy low opportunity comes from their 110-130 loss at New York as 13-point favorites.
Now the Bucks are just 5-point favorites over the Miami Heat tonight. They want revenge on the Heat after getting upset by them in the playoffs last year with their season coming to an end at the hands of Miami. Plus, they won't have to face Miami's best player in Jimmy Butler, who is out with an ankle injury.
Milwaukee is 31-16 ATS in its last 47 games following a SU loss. The Bucks are 45-27 ATS in their last 72 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bucks are 27-12 ATS in their last 29 games off an upset loss as a favorite. Take the Bucks Tuesday.
|12-29-20||Florida State v. Clemson -1.5||Top||67-77||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson -1.5
The Clemson Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season. They are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming on the road to Virginia Tech. They have wins over Mississippi State (by 11), Purdue (by 11), Maryland (by 16) and Alabama (by 8) so they have played a very tough schedule as well.
The Florida State Seminoles lost their three best players to the NBA or graduation from last year's team. They have still opened 5-1 and are talented, but their 12-point loss to UCF is a concern two games back. And they didn't come close to covering as a 20-point favorite in a 13-point win over Gardner Webb last time out. This team is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers.
Clemson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 25 points or fewer in the first half of last game. The Tigers are the best defensive team in the ACC, giving up just 53.4 points per game and 37% shooting this season. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Clemson Tuesday.
|12-28-20||Blazers +4 v. Lakers||Top||115-107||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
20* Blazers/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +4
The Los Angeles Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a win over Minnesota yesterday. They could decide to sit both Lebron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (calf) given the situation. Both are listed as questionable.
Either way, the Blazers will be highly motivated to take on the defending champs tonight. I know we'll get a big effort from them, especially after losing in five games to the Lakers in the playoffs last year, so they will have revenge in mind. And they are starting out 2020-21 very healthy with the Big 3 of Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic all playing big minutes in each of their first two games this season.
The Blazers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 meetings in Los Angeles. The Lakers are 12-27 ATS in their last 39 home games after leading their previous game by 20-plus points at halftime. Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win. Take the Blazers Monday.
|12-28-20||Bills -7 v. Patriots||Top||38-9||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
20* Bills/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on Buffalo -7
The Buffalo Bills want the No. 2 seed in the AFC. That would give them home-field advantage all the way until they have to face the Chiefs in the the AFC Championship Game if both teams win out. Adding to their motivation is that they have been the little brother to New England for a few decades. They would love to pull off the season sweep here in emphatic fashion.
Of course the Bills are going to show up for a prime time game on National TV. And of course they are going to show up with it being the Patriots. So motivation won't be an issue for them, and I expect them to continue firing on all cylinders as they have been for weeks now.
Indeed, the Bills are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the hail mary by the Arizona Cardinals on the final play of the game. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six gmes overall with five wins by double-digits during this stretch. They beat the Broncos 48-19 last week, the Steelers 26-15 two weeks ago, the 49ers 34-24 three weeks ago, the Chargers 27-17 four weeks ago and the Seahawks 44-34 seven weeks ago.
Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level by leading the Bills to an average of 34.8 points per game in their last six games. And their defense is starting to play up to its potential now in holding the last four opponents to 18.8 points per game. They held the Steelers to 224 yards and the Broncos to 255 yards the last two weeks.
There's no way this pitiful New England offense is going to be able to keep up with Allen and company. They have averaged just 248.3 yards per game in their last four games coming in. They were held to 12 points against the Dolphins and outgained by 80 yards. They were held to 3 points and 220 yards against the Rams. And they were held to 179 yards against the Cardinals. They were also held to 291 yards in a misleading win over the Chargers. And now they are without their best CB in Stephon Gilmore, who would have been matched up with Stefon Diggs. Now Diggs, who has 111 receptions for 1314 yards this season, will have a huge game tonight.
The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Buffalo is 11-4-2 ATS in its last 17 road games. The road team is 21-8-2 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Bet the Bills Monday.
|12-28-20||Missouri State +3.5 v. Northern Iowa||75-85||Loss||-108||9 h 13 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Missouri State +3.5
I cashed in Missouri State as a 6.5-point underdog against Northern Iowa in their 79-59 win. I said they should not be underdogs in this game and believe they should not be underdogs in the rematch either. So I'm back on them as 3.5-point dogs again today.
The Panthers are 1-5 SU & 0-5 ATS this season. They just lost their best player in A.J. Green, who averaged 22.2 PPG and 5.7 RPG in his three games this season. Green averaged 19.7 PPG last year and is now out for the season. Plus, the Panthers hadn't played since December 9th, so they are rusty right now.
Missouri State is off to a 4-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season. They crushed Northwestern State 94-67 as a 10.5-point favorite. Then they upset a very good Arkansas-Little Rock team that returned all five starters from last year 85-77 as 1.5-point dogs. And add in that 79-59 win as 6.5-point dogs to Northern Iowa yesterday.
The Bears are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Missouri State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. Northern Iowa 17-36-1 ATS in its last 54 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Missouri State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. teams who average 33 or fewer rebounds per game. The Bears are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 60 points or fewer in their previous game. Roll with Missouri State Monday.
|12-28-20||Missouri State v. Northern Iowa UNDER 140.5||75-85||Loss||-112||9 h 13 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Missouri State/Northern Iowa UNDER 140.5
Missouri State just beat Northern Iowa 79-59 yesterday for 138 combined points. And now the total has been set at 140.5 for the rematch today, which is too high. These teams will easily go UNDER this total. They are familiar with each other now, and that favors defense.
Missouri State is a great defensive team in giving up 66.7 points per game and 39.2% shooting this season en route to a 4-0 start. Northern Iowa is a great defensive team year in and year out, and that's the case again this season despite playing a brutal schedule.
But Northern Iowa is in a world of hurt offensively right now. They just lost their best player in A.J. Green, who averaged 22.2 PPG and 5.7 RPG in his three games this season. Green averaged 19.7 PPG last year and is now out for the season. Plus, the Panthers hadn't played since December 9th, so they are rusty right now.
Missouri State and Northern Iowa have combined for 138 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings. That makes for a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 140.5-point total. Northern Iowa is 22-6 UNDER in its last 28 games when revenging a loss. The Panthers are 6-0 UNDER in their last six games off a loss by 10 points or more. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|12-28-20||Evansville +9 v. Southern Illinois||84-72||Win||100||7 h 13 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Evansville +9
The Evansville Purple Aces get another shot at Southern Illinois tonight. They lost 57-63 as 8.5-point dogs yesterday. Now they are 9-point dogs to the Salukis in the rematch. This makes no sense as the Purple Aces will be the more motivated team, while the Salukis will relax after just beating them.
Plus Southern Illinois is overvalued as it is due to an unbeaten 7-0 record against an extremely soft schedule. Their seven wins have come against SE Missouri State, Quincy, Murray State, North Dakota (twice), Butler and Evansville.
Four of the last five meetings in this series have now been decided by 7 points or less. The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Purple Aces are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Evansville Monday.
|12-27-20||Celtics v. Pacers +2.5||107-108||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +2.5
The Indiana Pacers played great in the preseason for new head coach Nate Bjorkgren. They are going with a faster-paced style and a lot of 3-pointers. And they won 121-107 over the Knicks in their opener despite making only 8-of-34 (23.5%) of their 3-point attempts.
This is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA with a ton of talent and depth. Five different players scored in double figures against the Knicks led by 32 from Sabonis, who is an All-Star who missed significant time last season. As did Oladipo (22 points) and Brogdon (21), who are both healthy to start the season. And Turner (10) and Warren (5) were huge contributors last year. McDermott (13), McConnel (5) and the Holiday brothers (13 combined) provide some great production off the bench.
The Pacers came back yesterday and crushed the Bulls 125-106 as a premium pick for us. They shot 56% as a team but just 35% from 3-point range. And their starters played limited minutes with nobody getting more than 33 minutes, so they should still be fresh here for the Celtics.
This is a Boston team that just lost 95-123 to the Brooklyn Nets last time out. The Celtics really missed PG Kemba Walker as they will be a team to fade until he returns. Not to mention they lost Gordon Hayward this offseason. They are too reliant on Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to provide their offense. I'll gladly back the deeper Pacers who play well together as a team. Take the Pacers Sunday.
|12-27-20||Missouri State +6.5 v. Northern Iowa||79-59||Win||100||5 h 38 m||Show|
15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State +6.5
The Northern Iowa Panthers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today. They should not be 6.5-point favorites over the Missouri State Bears in this Missouri Valley Conference matchup.
The Panthers are 1-4 SU & 0-4 ATS this season. They just lost their best player in A.J. Green, who averages 22.2 PPG and 5.7 RPG in his three games this season. Green averaged 19.7 PPG last year and is now out for the season. Plus, the Panthers haven't played since December 9th, so they will be rusty.
Missouri State is off to a 3-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season. They crushed Northwestern State 94-67 as a 10.5-point favorite. Last time out they upset a very good Arkansas-Little Rock team that returned all five starters from last year 85-77 as 1.5-point dogs.
The Bears are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Missouri State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games. The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Northern Iowa 17-35-1 ATS in its last 53 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bears are 11-2 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons. Missouri State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams who average 33 or fewer rebounds per game. Bet Missouri State Sunday.
|12-27-20||Falcons +11 v. Chiefs||Top||14-17||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +11
The Kansas City Chiefs are overvalued due to their 13-1 record. I have been selling high on them for weeks, except for last week I had them when they covered as closing 2.5-point favorites over the Saints. And now this is a huge letdown spot off that win over New Orleans as they won't be nearly as motivated to face the Falcons. Not to mention, they basically already have the No. 1 seed wrapped up in the AFC and a first-round bye.
The Chiefs have gone 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They have won all six games, but all six wins came by 6 points or less. They just don't keep their foot on the gas and they just seem to be going through the motions waiting for the playoffs to come. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Falcons pull the upset here, and at the very least this 11-point spread is way too high.
The Falcons continue to play hard for Raheem Morris. In their last seven games, they have either won the game outright or lost by 5 points or fewer six times. So they have been competitive in every game. The only exception was the loss to the Saints 9-24 in which they led 9-3 but fell apart in the second half. They gave the Bucs all they could handle last week in a 27-31 loss. That's a Bucs team that went on to crush Detroit 47-7 on Saturday.
The Falcons have a very underrated defense that has allowed 24 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall. They will be able to slow down the Chiefs here. And Matt Ryan and company should be able to keep pace as well. They have scored 25 or more points in four of their last seven games and are averaging 25.8 points per game in their last four.
Kansas City is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining 400 or more yards in three straight games coming in. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Week 16 games. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|12-27-20||Bears v. Jaguars OVER 46.5||41-17||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bears/Jaguars OVER 46.5
The Chicago Bears have become an offensive juggernaut with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. He has led the Bears to 30 or more points in three straight games now. And they have gotten their running game going, making things easier on him in the play-action passing game.
The Bears have rushed for at least 140 yards in all three games. They only had to punt once against the Vikings last week in their 33-27 victory. And now they face a Jaguars defense that gave up 40 points to Baltimore last week. In fact, the Jaguars have now allowed at least 24 points in each of their last 13 games, all losses. They give up 30.2 points per game this season. The Bears should get to 30-plus points for a fourth consecutive week.
The Jaguars should be able to do their part against a Bears defense that allowed 34 points to the Lions three weeks ago and 27 to the Vikings last week. I think Jacksonville should top 20 points in this one. Mike Glennon will be their quarterback, and he has been the best of the Jaguars' three different signal callers this season. It will be great weather in Jacksonville as well, which sets this game up to be a shootout.
The OVER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The OVER is 19-7 in Bears last 26 games as a road favorite. The OVER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four games following an ATS loss. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-27-20||Bengals v. Texans OVER 44.5||37-31||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bengals/Texans OVER 44.5
The Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans have nothing to play for but pride. I like backing the OVER late in the season when that is the case. I see defense as being optional in this game, and for both the Bengals and Texans to hang big numbers offensively.
For starters, these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Texans give up 27.6 points and 402.8 yards per game this season. The Bengals allow 25.4 points and 372.6 yards per game. The Texans still have a very good offense under Deshaun Watson, and the Bengals showed some life offensively last week with 27 points against a very good Steelers defense.
Houston is 19-6 OVER in its last 25 games coming off three or more consecutive unders. If the Texans hadn't fumbled inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds against the Colts two of the last three weeks, both those games would have gone OVER. I think that fact is providing us with some line value here with this total of only 44.5. Plus the Bengals have gone under the total in four of their last five while playing some very bad offenses in Washington, Giants, Dolphins, Cowboys and Steelers. That has also provided us with some value on the OVER. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-26-20||Dolphins -3 v. Raiders||26-25||Loss||-101||35 h 52 m||Show|
15* Dolphins/Raiders AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Miami -3
The Miami Dolphins have been the gift that keeps on giving for me and my premium clients. They will continue adding to our profits on the day after Christmas here against the fading Oakland Raiders. The Dolphins are now 9-5 SU this season and 11-3 ATS, the best ATS mark in the NFL.
Better yet, the Dolphins are now 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are currently the 7th seed in the AFC playoffs, tied with the Ravens for the final spot. They cannot afford to take their foot off the gas now, especially knowing they have a difficult game at Buffalo on deck next week. This is a must-win for them and they will play like it.
The Dolphins have the best scoring defense in the NFL at 18.4 points per game allowed. That's what makes them so underrated. Now they have Tua at quarterback coming into his own the last three weeks. Hew threw for 296 yards against the Bengals and 316 yards against the Chiefs before completing 20-of-26 passes against the Patriots last week. And the Dolphins showed they could win that game on the ground with 250 rushing yards in their 22-12 victory.
The Dolphins will be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a Raiders defense that gives up 30.1 points and 385.4 yards per game and just recently fired their defensive coordinator. It didn't matter much at all as they gave up 30 points and 402 yards against the Chargers last time out. And now after going 1-4 SU in their last five games overall, the Raiders have been all but eliminated from the playoffs and have nothing to play for the rest the way.
The Dolphins were missing three of their best weapons in WR Parker, WR Grant and TE Gesicki last week and still found a way to win with their running game and a high-efficiency game from Tua. But all three were close to playing last week, so there's a good chance they get back a few of them this week. The Raiders have a worse injury situation as they are missing a handful of starters on defense, have injuries all over their offensive line, and now Derek Carr had to leave the last game with a groin injury. He may return this week, but he won't be mobile at all and will probably hurt the Raiders more by playing than help them.
The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses. The Dolphins are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five December games. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, failing to cover the spread by a combined 66 points. I'll gladly back the better, more motivated team in this one that has a lot more to play for. Roll with the Dolphins Saturday.
|12-26-20||Pacers -4.5 v. Bulls||125-106||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4.5
The Indiana Pacers played great in the preseason for new head coach Nate Bjorkgren. They are going with a faster-paced style and a lot of 3-pointers. And they won 121-107 over the Knicks in their opener despite making only 8-of-34 (23.5%) of their 3-point attempts.
This is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA with a ton of talent and depth. Five different players scored in double figures against the Knicks led by 32 from Sabonis, who is an All-Star who missed significant time last season. As did Oladipo (22 points) and Brogdon (21), who are both healthy to start the season. And Turner (10) and Warren (5) were huge contributors last year. McDermott (13), McConnel (5) and the Holiday brothers (13 combined) provide some great production off the bench.
The Bulls are in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Billy Donavan. They were blasted 104-124 by the Atlanta Hawks in their opener and trailed by as many as 37 points. The Hawks were held to 13 points in the 4th quarter and still won by 20. The Pacers should make easy work of them as well. Roll with the Pacers Saturday.
|12-26-20||Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina||Top||37-34||Win||100||82 h 24 m||Show|
20* Liberty/Coastal Carolina Cure Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Liberty +7
The Liberty Flames were one of my favorite teams to back all season. They went 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS this season to earn head coach Hugh Freeze a hefty new contract. I had them against Virginia Tech as 17-point dogs earlier this season in a game they won outright. And their only loss came to NC State 14-15 after they had a last-second field goal blocked.
Liberty's stats are off the charts this season. They are outgaining opponents by over 190 yards per game. They give up just 307 yards per game defensively. They average nearly 40 points and 500 yards per game on offense. QB Malik Willis is one of the most underrated players in the country. He had a 20-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season. He led the team in rushing with 807 yards and 10 scores. He is just tough to handle.
It's time to 'sell high' on Coastal Carolina and their perfect 11-0 record. I was all ready to fade them with Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship until COVID problems struck the Chanticleers. And now there may be lingering effects from that with a lack of practice time. I faded them with Troy in their regular season finale when the Trojans nearly won that game outright. And I'm going to fade them again here.
I think Liberty will be the more motivated team here. The Flames are extremely happy to be in this bowl game facing an unbeaten team. Coastal Carolina thought it might be playing in a New Year's 6 Bowl and probably would have had they beaten Louisiana. Instead of playing a big name Power 5 program, now they have to play Liberty. I just can't see them getting up for this game.
"Having another chance to face Coastal Carolina after it was taken away from us at the end of our regular season gives us a chance to finish off a magical season and another special win," Liberty coach Hugh Freeze said.
Freeze is one of my favorite head coaches to back because he is so underrated dating back to his time at Ole Miss. Freeze is now 62-35 ATS as a head coach. Liberty is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog. The Flames are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. Take Liberty Saturday.
|12-26-20||49ers v. Cardinals -4.5||Top||20-12||Loss||-101||31 h 7 m||Show|
20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals -4.5
Fading the 49ers has made me a lot of money this season. And I'm not about to stop now as they continue to be overvalued week after week, including here Saturday against Arizona in Week 16. The 49ers are now 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by 8 points or more. The Cardinals should be at least 7-point favorites in this matchup.
The 49ers have officially been eliminated from the playoffs after three straight upset losses to Buffalo, Washington and Dallas. Now they are down to third-string QB CJ Beathard, who is 1-9 as a starter in the NFL, including 0-3 in three meetings with the Cardinals. And their laundry list of injuries is worse than any other team in the NFL, which is the biggest reason they have struggled this season to a 5-9 record after nearly winning the Super Bowl last year.
The Cardinals are highly motivated right now to clinch a playoff spot. They are 8-6 and currently in the final spot in the NFC playoff race. They would clinch a spot in the postseason for the first time since 2015 if they win on Saturday and the Chicago Bears lose to the Jaguars on Sunday. They have owned the 49ers over the years as they are going for their 5th season sweep in the past 6 years after winning 24-20 at San Francisco in Week 1.
Kyler Murray looks fully recovered from a shoulder injury that hampered him for a few weeks during a three-game skid. But the Cardinals have since won their last two with a dominant 26-7 road win over the Giants and a 33-26 home win over the Eagles. The sign that Murray is healthy is that he is using his legs again with 21 rush attempts combined in those two victories.
The offense was certainly hitting on all cylinders against the Eagles with 526 yards as they outgained the Eagles by 104 yards. They had 390 yards on a very good Giants defense, and they held them to just 159 yards and outgained them by 231 yards. Now the season-long stats for the Cardinals really show they are a dominant team outscoring opponents by 4.4 points per game and outgaining them by 49.2 yards per game.
The 49ers cannot be trusted to hold onto the football. They have committed two or more turnovers in eight consecutive games and 10 of their last 11 games overall. Beathard is a turnover machine as well and will be running for his life in this one. And this 49ers defense looked to kind of quit last week in giving up 41 points to Dallas. They are just playing out the string right now and disappointed they have to be in Arizona over Christmas instead of being with their family due to the COVID restrictions in Santa Clara.
Plays against underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Cardinals Saturday.
|12-26-20||Virginia +8.5 v. Gonzaga||75-98||Loss||-110||6 h 18 m||Show|
15* Virginia/Gonzaga CBS ANNIHILATOR on Virginia +8.5
The Virginia Cavaliers are exactly the type of team that can slow down the Gonzaga Bulldogs. They have been among the best defensive teams in the country under Tony Bennett for years. And that's the case again this season as they give up just 54.0 points per game and 36.3% shooting.
I like the fact that Virginia returned from its 17-day absence from COVID problems and looked very sharp in a 76-40 win as 23.5-point favorites over William & Mary on December 22nd. And now they are highly motivated to try and knock off the No. 1 team in the country in Gonzaga. Getting 8.5 points with a team the caliber of Virginia is an absolute Christmas gift.
The Cavaliers are 37-16 ATS in their last 53 games as underdogs. Virginia is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall. It's time to 'buy low' on the Cavaliers and 'sell high' on the Bulldogs today. Take Virginia Saturday.
|12-26-20||Western Kentucky v. Georgia State -3.5||Top||21-39||Win||100||75 h 11 m||Show|
20* WKU/Georgia State LendingTree Bowl No-Brainer on Georgia State -3.5
Conference USA teams have looked awful early in the bowl season. North Texas lost 28-56 to Appalachian State, Louisiana Tech lost 3-38 to Georgia Southern and FAU lost 10-25 to Memphis. All three failed to cover the spread by over 40 points combined. Expect more of the same here for C-USA member Western Kentucky.
The Hilltoppers went 5-6 this season with four losses by double-digits. Their five wins came against some awful teams in Middle Tennessee, Chattanooga, Southern Miss, FIU and Charlotte. And three of those wins came by only 3 points each. Chattanooga is an FCS team and the four C-USA teams they beat have a combined record of 8-22 this season.
This is a big step up in class here for Western Kentucky. The Sun Belt has looked great early in the bowl season, including two matchups against Conference USA teams. Applachian State beat North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern crushed LA Tech 38-3. This is a different matchup here, but Georgia State was one of the better teams in the Sun Belt, which proved to be perhaps the most underrated conference in the country when you consider what Louisiana and Coastal Carolina did.
Georgia State only lost to Louisiana by 3, App State by 4 and beat Georgia Southern by 6. This is a veteran Panthers team that returned 16 starters and a ton of seniors this year. The Panthers had 14 players named to the All-Sun Belt Conference. And in his 24 seasons as a Division 1 coach, Shawn Elliott has been a part of 19 teams that have reached a bowl game or the NCAA playoffs.
"I am so proud of our players and the hard work to persevere through the season," Elliott said. "We talk about doing things for the first time, and back-to-back bowl games is another first for our program."
I just don't see how Western Kentucky is going to keep up with Georgia State in this one. The Hilltoppers struggled offensively all season, averaging just 18.8 points per game, which was last in Conference USA. Georgia State averages 32.7 points per game. The Panthers are led by QB Cornelius Brown, who has thrown for 2,046 yards and 14 touchdowns, while also rushing for 261 yards and seven scores.
The Hilltoppers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Sun Belt opponents. Western Kentucky is 2-8 ATS in Saturday games this season. Bet Georgia State Saturday.
|12-25-20||Clippers v. Nuggets +2.5||121-108||Loss||-104||13 h 11 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +2.5 I think we're getting value on the Denver Nuggets tonight based off results from opening night. The Clippers pulled the upset over the Lakers, while the Nuggets were upset by the Kings. So instead of Denver being a favorite as it should be, we are now getting the Nuggets as underdogs. We saw who was the better team in the playoffs last year when the Nuggets took out the Clippers in seven games. And the Nuggets have only gotten stronger as they have great chemistry with basically the same guys back this year, plus another year of development for this young, talented squad. The Clippers lost some key pieces in the offseason like Harrell. The Nuggets are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as underdogs. Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss. The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites. Denver is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Nuggets Friday.
|12-25-20||Vikings +7 v. Saints||33-52||Loss||-120||7 h 7 m||Show|
15* Vikings/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7
The Minnesota Vikings aren't officially eliminated from the playoffs yet. And until they are, I trust Mike Zimmer to have this team ready to go in Week 16 against the New Orleans Saints. After all, this is Christmas Day on National TV, so players will be up for this game to try and knock off the Saints. It's a Saints team they have quietly formed a rivalry with after meeting in the playoffs a couple times in recent years.
There's clearly value with the Vikings here. In fact, this is their largest underdog role of the season. They haven't been 7-point dogs or higher in any game this year. And in their two previous biggest dog roles, they lost in the closing seconds 26-27 as 6.5-point dogs at Seattle. They won outright 28-22 as 6-point dogs at Green Bay. And they deserved to cover had Dan Bailey not missed three FG's and an extra point in a 14-26 loss as 6-point dogs at Tampa Bay.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Vikings after going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. But they have played better than that would suggest. In fact, the Vikings have now outgained seven straight opponents by an average of 63 yards per game. They have an offense that will keep them in this game with the Saints. They have averaged 407.3 yards per game in their last seven.
The Saints remain overvalued from a 9-game winning streak. But they have since lost their last two outright with a 21-24 loss to the Eagles as 7.5-point favorites and a 29-32 loss to the Chiefs as 2.5-point dogs. They were outgained by 55 yards by Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Then they were fortunate to even be that close against the Chiefs considering they were held to 285 yards and outgained by 126 yards by the Chiefs. Kansas City also had a 34 to 15 edge in first downs.
Drew Brees looked to return too early from a rib injury that sidelined him for a handful of games. He completed just 15-of-34 (44%) of his passes against the Chiefs for 234 yards. It was all dink and dunk, and he clearly missed having Michael Thomas, who is on the IR. Not to mention he is without both Tre'quan Smith and Deonte Harris at receiver as well. The Saints are so thin at the position that they cannot be trusted to get margin here against a Vikings team that will keep coming due to their elite offense.
Minnesota has won three of its last four meetings with New Orleans. The Vikings are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following two or more consecutive losses. They are winning outright by an average of 7.5 points per game in this spot. Zimmer is 14-3 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Minnesota. The Saints are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games following an ATS loss. Minnesota is 38-14 ATS in its last 52 games following a SU loss. Take the Vikings Friday.
|12-25-20||Marshall v. Buffalo -4||Top||10-17||Win||100||53 h 19 m||Show|
20* Marshall/Buffalo Crampton Bowl No-Brainer on Buffalo -4
The Buffalo Bulls were the best team in the MAC this season. They were also one of the best non-power 5 teams in the country. And the fact that they lost outright to Ball State in the MAC Championship Game as a 12.5-point favorite has them undervalued heading into bowl season.
That was a misleading loss for Buffalo to Ball State. They racked up 499 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 60 yards, but lost 28-38. Their season stats are off the charts as they score 47.8 points per game and give up just 23.8 points per game. They boast a rushing attack that averages 310 yards per game and 7.2 per carry behind one of the best backs in the country in Jaret Patterson, who is expected to play in this bowl game. Patterson has rushed for 1,072 yards, 19 TD and 7.6 per carry this season.
Marshall feasted on an easy schedule early in the season with a 7-0 start. But the Thundering Herd have been a different team since. They lost 20-0 as a 24-point favorite against Rice. Then they lost 13-22 as a 4.5-point favorite against UAB in the C-USA Championship Game. So their offense has been held to averages of just 6.5 points and 256.5 yards per game in their last two.
Their defense gave up 468 yards to UAB as they were outgained by 200 yards by the Blazers. UAB rushed for 216 yards on them, so you can imagine what this Buffalo rushing attack is going to do to them. And Marshall QB Grant Wells is awful, completing just 26-of-58 (44.8%) of his pass attempts with a 2-to-5 TD/INT ratio against Rice and UAB combined.
While Patterson and everyone is expected to play for Buffalo, Marshall has had three key players opt out. They will be without leading rusher Brenden Knox, who rushed for 887 yards and nine touchdowns this season. They will also be without leading tackler Tavante Beckett, who had 90 tackles and four fumble recoveries. And their best offensive lineman in G Josh Ball has opted out.
Conference USA teams have looked awful early in the bowl season. North Texas lost 28-56 to Appalachian State, Louisiana Tech lost 3-38 to Georgia Southern and FAU lost 10-25 to Memphis. All three failed to cover the spread by over 40 points combined. Expect more of the same here for C-USA member Marshall.
The Thundering Herd are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss. The Bulls are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 yards in their previous game. Bet Buffalo Friday.
|12-25-20||Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 140||Top||85-76||Loss||-110||3 h 6 m||Show|
20* Wisconsin/Michigan State FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 140
The head-to-head history in this series really stood out to me this morning when looking into this game. There's no way this total should be 140 with how low-scoring this series has been over the last several years.
Indeed, the UNDER is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings. Wisconsin and Michigan State have combined for 137 or fewer points in each of the last seven meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 140-point total. They have averaged just 126.9 combined points per game in those seven meetings, which gives us roughly 13 points of value here. Enough said. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-24-20||Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston||Top||28-14||Win||100||30 h 19 m||Show|
20* Hawaii/Houston New Mexico Bowl No-Brainer on Hawaii +11.5
We've already seen a couple AAC teams get destroyed in bowls already. Tulane lost 27-38 to Nevada, which this is also an AAC vs. Mountain West matchup. And UCF got blasted 49-23 by UCF. Keep in mind both Tulane and UCF scored late to make those final scores even closer than they really were. And I can't give Memphis much credit for its 25-10 win over a bad FAU team.
Now Houston is laying double-digits in this bowl game and it's simply too much. The Cougars went just 3-4 this season with thier only wins coming against Tulane, Navy and South Florida. Three of their four losses came by 17 points or more. So I'm not sure exactly what they have done to warrant being a double-digit favorite here.
Hawaii was solid in Todd Graham's first season this year. They only lost to the best the Mountain West had to offer with setbacks against Boise State, San Jose State, San Diego State and Wyoming. And they actually beat Nevada, which just beat Tulane.
Hawaii will never be out of this game with Chevan Cordeiro at quarterback. He is completing 62.1% of his passes for 1,947 yards with 11 touchdowns and only six interceptions, while also rushing for a team-high 452 yards and seven touchdowns. I like his dual-threat ability here.
Hawaii is extremely happy to be here. The Rainbow Warriors will be making just their third-ever trip to a bowl in the 48 contiguous states and first since the 2008 Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. And Graham has a chance to reach 100 wins as a head coach with a win on Christmas Eve.
"I am so excited for our team and staff," Graham said in a release. "They've worked hard throughout the entire season, under such challenging circumstances. This game is a great chance to showcase our team to the people of Texas and to a national television audience. Houston is a fine program and we can't wait to compete against them on Christmas Eve."
The Cougars are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. Mountain West opponents. Bet Hawaii Thursday.
|12-23-20||Jazz v. Blazers -1||Top||120-100||Loss||-109||11 h 57 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -1
The Portland Trail Blazers made a big run in the bubble last year just to make the playoffs. It showed what they could do when they are healthy, and that is the case for them to open the 2020-21 campaign here.
Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are still the cornerstones. Jusuf Nurkic and Rodney Hood are back after serious injuries kept them off the floor for length stretches last season. They brought back Enes Kanter and Carmelo Anthony to provide scoring punch off the bench. And they acquired Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. to shore up their defense. I absolutely love this team this season.
Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are cornerstones for the Jazz, but I'm not a huge fan of the rest of their team. Joe Ingles and Mike Conley are old. As is one of their biggest acquisitions in Derrick Favors, who spent 8.5 seasons in Utah before getting traded to New Orleans.
Portland is 37-16 SU in its last 53 home meetings with Utah. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Jazz. The home team won all three meetings last season. Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.
|12-23-20||Rutgers v. Ohio State -2.5||Top||68-80||Win||100||5 h 22 m||Show|
20* Rutgers/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -2.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) responded from a loss to Purdue in their Big Ten opener with a 77-70 win over a very good UCLA team on Saturday. They got leading rebounder E.J. Liddell back from a two-game absence due to mononucleosis and should be closer to full strength for this game now as the Buckeyes are highly motivated for their first conference victory.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on unbeaten Rutgers (6-0) tonight. The Scarlet Knights have opened 2-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Maryland and Illinois after a soft early schedule. But they just lost starting center Clifford Omoruyi to an injury in the win over Illinois and his loss will be feld here against Liddell and Ohio State.
Ohio State is 8-2 SU against Rutgers as Big Ten members, including 5-0 SU at home. The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games off an ATS win. Ohio State is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games. The Buckeyes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites. Bet Ohio State Wednesday.
|12-22-20||Clippers v. Lakers -2.5||116-109||Loss||-110||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Lakers NBA Season Opener on Los Angeles Lakers -2.5
The Los Angeles Lakers should come out hitting on all cylinders. They won the NBA title last year and return all their key pieces from that team plus add in some nice players, including former Clipper Montrezl Harrell and Marc Gasol. Not to mention last year's top draft pick Talen Horton-Tucker had a monster preseason with 20.5 PPG and 53.8% 3-point shooting as the Lakers cruised to a 4-0 record.
Things didn't go near as smoothly for the Clippers in the preseason. They went 0-3 and lost to the Lakers twice 81-87 and 106-131. And they played their starters more minutes in those games than the Lakers did. The Clippers also lost 105-125 to the Jazz. They are trying to implement several new players and things will probably start poorly for them this season, starting with this showdown with the Lakers. Bet the Lakers Tuesday.
|12-22-20||North Dakota State +12 v. TCU||82-89||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on North Dakota State +12
North Dakota State's 2-5 record has the Bison undervalued. But they are in the midst of their toughest nonconference slate in school history having already traveled to No. 11 Creighton, No. 7 Kansas and Nebraska. They are battle-tested and ready to go.
Keep in mind the Bison covered in road losses to Creighton (58-69) as 23.5-point dogs and Kansas (61-65) as 24-point dogs. They also only lost to a very good South Dakota State team 75-77 as 7.5-point dogs. They have proven they can hang with those teams, so they definitely can hang with TCU here.
This is a good 'sell high' spot on TCU. The Horned Frogs are coming off two straight wins and covered over Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. Now they step back outside of Big 12 play here and won't be nearly as motivated for face NDSU as they were Oklahoma State last time out. This is a TCU team that only beat Tulsa by 5, Liberty by 4 and Northwestern State by 6 earlier this season. They aren't good enough to get margin on this underrated NDSU team tonight.
North Dakota State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games following an ATS loss. TCU is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS win. The Horned Frogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites. Take North Dakota State Tuesday.
|12-22-20||Tulane v. Nevada +2.5||Top||27-38||Win||100||5 h 8 m||Show|
20* Tulane/Nevada Potato Bowl No-Brainer on Nevada +2.5
The wrong team is favored in this Famous Idaho Potato Bowl between Tulane and Nevada given the circumstances. The least of which is that this is a short trip for the Wolf Pack at a familiar site in Boise, Idaho. It's a long trip for the Green Wave from Louisiana.
Tulane is strong in the trenches, but they will be without two starting defensive linemen, including a first-team all-conference player. They have another one questionable that was a first-teamer as well. That leaves Tulane's already poor pass defense that gives up 281 passing yards per game and 8.5 yards per attempt even more susceptible. Nevada QB Carson Strong should have a huge day through the air for a Wolf Pack team that averaged 325 passing yards per game and 7.9 per attempt this season.
Team chemistry will be off for the Green Wave as well. They lost both of their coordinators earlier this offseason. Offensive coordinator Will Hall was hired as Southern Miss' head coach. Defensive coordinator Jack Curtis was fired as well. They haven't had much time to get ready with their new coordinators and that makes this a very tough spot for them.
Tulane's offensive strength matches Nevada's defensive strength. The Green Wave average 219 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry. The Wolf Pack give up only 131 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry. Jay Norvell made recruiting huge, athletic defensive linemen a priority and it is finally starting to pay off for the Wolf Pack.
The Wolf Pack are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Nevada is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog. The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Nevada is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU loss. Bet Nevada in the Potato Bowl Tuesday.
|12-22-20||Tulane v. East Carolina -5||58-68||Win||100||4 h 32 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on East Carolina -5
The East Carolina Pirates returned all five starters from last year and are a sleeper in the American Athletic Conference. They are off to a 6-1 start this season with their only loss coming to SMU, which is 5-0 this season.
Last year ECU crushed Tulane in both meetings with an 81-62 win at home and an 81-67 win on the road. With the Pirates having all five starters back, it should be more of the same here against a Tulane team that returned just one starter.
Tulane is getting too much respect here for its 5-1 start this season. The loss came to Memphis, and the five wins were against awful competition in Lamar, Lipscomb, Southern Miss, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Grambling. They will meet their match here in the Pirates with this big step up in class.
The Green Wave are 7-24 ATS in their last 31 road games following three or more consecutive home games. This will be their first road game all season as well as their first six games have all been at home. East Carolina has played two tough road games at Charlotte and SMU. They are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 13.4 points per game. Roll with East Carolina Tuesday.
|12-21-20||Steelers v. Bengals +14.5||Top||17-27||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Bengals ESPN No-Brainer on Cincinnati +14.5
This line has gotten out of hand. The Pittsburgh Steelers are now laying more than two touchdowns to the Bengals, and it's time to pull the trigger on Cincinnati. The Bengals will bring a big effort here knowing this is a Primetime game with their division rival coming to town.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Bengals, who have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They are coming off a misleading 7-30 loss to the Cowboys in which they lost fumbles on each of their first three possessions. I think it's safe to say that's not going to happen again. And keep in mind they outgained the Cowboys by 37 yards in that misleading loss.
There has been nothing misleading about Pittsburgh losing its last two games to Buffalo and Washington. They lost 17-23 at home to Washington as 5.5-point favorites and 15-26 at Buffalo as 2-point dogs. Their offense is broken right now as they have failed to reach 50 rushing yards in five of their last seven games. And their defense is banged up as the losses at LB of Bud Dupree and Devin Bush have really taken their toll.
Cincinnati has actually been playing its best defense of the season down the stretch. The Bengals have held three of their last four opponents to 20 points or fewer. And they just held the Cowboys to 272 total yards last week. Their defense can keep them in this game, and I expect their offense cant' be any worse than it has been in recent weeks. Ryan Finley started three games as a rookie in 2019, including a 16-10 loss to the Steelers. Getting a whole week of practice preparing to be the starter will help him succeed in this spot.
The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six December games. The Bengals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit home loss. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. Bet the Bengals Monday.
|12-21-20||Tulsa v. Memphis -9||56-49||Loss||-110||10 h 35 m||Show|
15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -9
The Memphis Tigers are one of the most talented teams in the country. They returned four starters from last year and added some real talent for Penny Hardaway. But they are off to a disappointing 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS start this season, and I think this is a good opportunity to 'buy low' on them as a single-digit favorite here against Tulsa.
The three losses came to WKU, VCU and Auburn. They have also beaten Tulane and St. Mary's. So Memphis has played a pretty tough schedule and is battle-tested now. This team is only going to get better as the season goes on as they develop chemistry with all this talent.
Tulsa is just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS with its only two wins coming against UT-Arlington and Northwestern State. They lost to TCU, Wichita State and South Carolina. Memphis will be the best team that they have played yet and it's not really even close.
Memphis is 12-2 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Tulsa with 11 of those wins coming by 9 points or more. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off a win by 6 points or less. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games off a road win. Take Memphis Monday.