15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Thunder UNDER 223 

This total has gotten out of hand tonight.  It has been bet all the way up to 223, and I look for it to finish well below the number tonight.  There are several reasons the UNDER is a great bet tonight. 

For starters, Oklahoma City is running on fumes tonight.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They just had to play in the altitude in Denver last night, so they will be tired.  They won’t be looking to push the tempo at all in this one. 

For the Pelicans, they just lost DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury.  He was in the midst of an MVP-caliber season.  The Pelicans won’t be nearly as efficient offensively without him.  That has shown in the last two games without Cousins as they were held to 103 points against the Clippers and 103 against the Kings. 

Oklahoma City is 20-6 UNDER off a division game over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 66-40 UNDER in all road games over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Pelicans are nine road games.  The UNDER is 15-4 in Thunder last 19 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (New Orleans) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 33-12 (73.3%) over the last five seasons.  This same system applies to Oklahoma City as well.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -3 

I love the situation for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 105-96 road loss to Indiana on January 29th just a few days ago.  Now they get the Pacers at home this time around.  The Pacers shot 54.2% in that game while the Hornets shot 44.6%.  I think that will be reversed tonight. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meetings.  In fact, the home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Hornets have won their last three home meetings with the Pacers by 12, 22 and 7 points, respectively. 

The Hornets are 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Charlotte is 6-0 ATS in its last six home meetings with Indiana.  The Hornets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Friday games.  The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games.  Bet the Hornets Friday. 

15* Oregon State/Stanford Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -3.5 

The Stanford Cardinal come in undervalued tonight because they are riding a 3-game losing streak.  But they were an underdog in all three games against a brutal schedule.  They lost by 2 at home to Arizona, by 5 at USC and by 16 at UCLA. 

This recent skid has everyone forgetting that Stanford put together a 5-game winning streak in Pac-12 play prior to the losing streak.  They won four of those five games outright as underdogs.  The Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and easily the most underrated team in the Pac-12. 

Oregon State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers tonight despite going just 1-4 in its last five games overall.  The Beavers are just 3-5 in Pac-12 play.  They don’t stand much of a chance of keeping this game close against a highly motivated Stanford squad tonight. 

Stanford is 17-2 straight up in its last 19 home meetings with Oregon State.  The Cardinal are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games off two or more consecutive losses.  Stanford is 11-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Roll with Stanford Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -1.5 

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the best teams in Conference USA this season.  They are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in conference action.  They have been grossly undervalued ever since head coach Dan D’Antoni took over a few years back. 

UTSA is just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in conference play this season.  The Roadrunners are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes home losses to the likes of FIU and FAU, two teams that are much worse than Marshall. 

The Thundering Herd have crushed the Roadrunners in their last two meetings.  Marshall won 109-91 on the road in 2016 and 92-71 at home in 2017.  I see another blowout win coming for the Thundering Herd in their lone meeting this season. 

Marshall is 8-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Thundering Herd are 17-5 ATS off a road game over the last two seasons.  Marshall is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Thundering Herd are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  The Roadrunners are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Take Marshall Thursday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 214 

With John Wall out for the Washington Wizards, I think this total has been set too high tonight.  The Wizards are a completely different offense without him.  They get a ton of easy buckets in transition because of his speed when he’s in there, but now they have to become a much more methodical team without him. 

And the Wizards and Raptors have already played in two low-scoring games in their first two meetings this year when Wall was healthy.  They combined for 203 points in their first meeting on November 5th and 191 points in their 2nd meeting on November 19th.  Now the books have set this total at 214, showing we have a ton of value on the UNDER based on the first two meetings. 

Toronto is 16-4 UNDER in road games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Washington is 15-6 UNDER off an ATS win this season.  Toronto is 15-5 UNDER versus good 3-point shooting teams making 36% or better this season.  The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  Backup PG Fred VanVleet is out for Toronto, and sharpshooter CJ Miles is questionable as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Maryland +15 

This line is simply out of hand tonight because Purdue is the 3rd-ranked team in the country and has won a school-record 17 straight games coming in.  No question Purdue is the best team in the Big Ten, but it cannot be 15-point favorites against a solid Maryland squad tonight. 

That’s especially the case with Maryland being out for revenge from a 75-80 home loss to Purdue as 3.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are 15-point underdogs in the rematch, a massive 11.5-point adjustment.  There is a ton of value with the Terrapins tonight. 

Purdue is 3-2 against Maryland in all meetings since the Terrapins joined the Big Ten in 2015.  But all three wins for the Boilermakers came by 5 points or less and by a combined 10 points overall.  Maryland has gotten healthy as the season has gone on and will be a tough out for any Big Ten team moving forward. 

The Terrapins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  The Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Plays against home favorite of 10 points or more (Purdue) - after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after five straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers are 94-45 (67.6%) ATS since 1997.  Take Maryland Wednesday. 

20* Knicks/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on New York +8.5 

This is a great spot to fade the Boston Celtics.  They are coming off a four-game road trip and this will be their first game back home.  I always like fading teams following an extended road trip in their first game back home because of all the off-court distractions they have to deal with when they get back. 

The Celtics aren’t playing well at all right now as it is.  They are 2-5 in their last seven games overall, going through their worst stretch of the season.  Marcus Smart has shown his value to this team because they have not played well without him, and he remains out tonight.  The Celtics cannot be laying 8.5 points to the Knicks with the way they are playing right now. 

The Knicks are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight after a 111-95 home win over Brooklyn last night.  But that effect is negated because the Knicks had three days off prior to that game.  So they’ll still be fresh and ready to go despite the back-to-back situation. 

New York is 12-3 ATS after having won two of its last three games this season.  The Knicks are 18-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of better than 70% over the last three years.  The Celtics are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

Note: I put this pick in when the line was +8.5.  It has since dropped to +6 as of this writing due to Kyrie Irving being ruled out.  I think it's certainly still worth a bet at +6 because Irving is worth more than 2.5 points to this team, especially with Marcus Smart already out and the Celtics lacking talent at the guard positions outside of those two.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech +1 

Off four straight losses, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are grossly undervalued right now.  But they were underdogs in all four games with home losses to Virginia and Clemson, and road losses at UNC and Florida State.  They finally get a break in their schedule here with a winnable home game against Syracuse. 

This is far from one of Jim Boeheim’s best Syracuse teams.  The Orange come in overvalued following three straight victories, but two were against Pittsburgh and the other was at home against Boston College.  And they didn’t cover either game against Pitt. 

Syracuse has only played five true road games all season.  The Orange are just 2-3 in them with their two wins coming over Georgetown by 7 and Pitt by 5.  Georgetown is one of the worst teams in the Big East, while Pitt is the worst team in the ACC. 

Georgia Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Syracuse despite being underdogs each time.  And the only loss was a 1-point loss as 4-point dogs.  The Orange are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games.  The Yellow Jackets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Syracuse is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games following a win. 

Georgia Tech is 6-0 ATS off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two years.  Georgia Tech is 9-1 ATS after a game where it made 78% or better from the free throw line over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Yellow Jackets.  Bet Georgia Tech Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +7.5 

The Brooklyn Nets are showing great value as 7.5-point home underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They have been a great bet all season with a 30-20-1 ATS record in their 51 games thus far as they have consistently been undervalued. 

I think oddsmakers are putting too much stock in the fact that the Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  But they had two days off prior to to their game against the Knicks last night, and it’s a short trip to Brooklyn from New York.  And the Nets are one of the deeper teams in the NBA so they aren’t affected as much by back-to-backs as most teams. 

The 76ers are in the midst of a four-game road trip that concludes here tonight.  They have lost their last two games by double-digits by 10 at Oklahoma City and by 12 at Milwaukee.  I just don’t think they should be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight as 7.5-point road favorites at Brooklyn. 

Brooklyn is 16-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Nets are 19-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Brooklyn is 13-4 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game this season.  Take the Nets Wednesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville +9.5 

The Virginia Cavaliers are in the ultimate letdown spot today.  They just ended a 17-game road losing streak at Duke with their first win since 1995 with a 65-63 win at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday.  It’s only human nature for them to suffer a letdown following such a monumental victory. 

Now the Cavaliers have to go up against an underrated Louisville team that will fight them for 40 minutes.  The Cardinals are 16-5 this season despite all the distractions with Rick Pitino.  They have played their best basketball of the season in conference play. 

Louisville is 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Its only losses came by 5 at Clemson as 6-point underdogs and by 3 at Miami in overtime as 5-point dogs.  The Cardinals have upset both Florida State and Notre Dame on the road, while also crushing Virginia Tech, Pitt, Boston College and Wake Forest at home during this stretch. 

The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight ACC games.  Louisville is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  I think that win over Duke all but sealed the ACC title for Virginia as well, making it even more of a letdown spot.  Roll with Louisville Wednesday. 

20* Blazers/Clippers TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers have been playing their best basketball of the season over the last few weeks.  They are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Now they have had three days off having last played on Friday and will be fresh and ready to go tonight against the Clippers.  The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest. 

The Clippers are going through some turmoil right now and cannot be trusted.  They just traded away franchise player Blake Griffin to Detroit yesterday.  They got back Avery Bradley and Tobias Harris in return, but both are doubtful to play tonight.  That leaves the Clippers extremely short-handed for this game against Portland. 

The Blazers have actually played some of their best basketball on the road this season, going 13-12 SU & 14-9-2 ATS.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Portland is 8-2-3 ATS in its last 13 games following a straight up win by more than 10 points. 

Plays against home teams (LA Clippers) - after four straight games where both teams score 100 points or more against opponent after scoring 100 points or more in five straight games are 42-18 (70%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -5.5 

Texas A&M opened 11-1 this season when they were healthy.  But then the Aggies were hit hard by injuries and proceeded to go 2-7 in their last nine games overall.  Now the Aggies are fully healthy again and should get back to being that 11-1 team sooner rather than later. 

Texas A&M is coming off back-to-back road losses as LSU and Kansas, which is no big deal.  Now the Aggies return home tonight where they are 9-2 on the season.  Look for them to take out their frustration on the overrated Arkansas Razorbacks tonight. 

Arkansas comes in overvalued off three straight wins by a combined 8 points with two of those coming at home.  But Arkansas is just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season, losing by an average of 10.4 points per game.  I think they get blown out of the building tonight. 

The Razorbacks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with Arkansas.  The Razorbacks are 4-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Roll with Texas A&M Tuesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -6 

The Oklahoma Sooners are back to being undervalued finally after going 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have lost three of their last four straight up, but all three were on the road to Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Alabama. 

Now Oklahoma returns home where it is a perfect 10-0 on the season, scoring 97.5 points per game and outscoring opponents by 18.3 points per game.  The Sooners have recent home wins over Northwestern by 26, Oklahoma State by 20, Texas Tech by 10, TCU by 5 and Kansas by 5. 

Now the Sooners should be able to blow out a struggling Baylor squad that is just 12-9 overall and 2-6 in Big 12 play.  This is one of the worst teams Baylor has had in quite some time.  The Bears are 2-7 in their last nine games overall with both of their wins coming at home.  Baylor is 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS in true road games this season, losing by an average of 12.4 points per game. 

Oklahoma is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 home games after having lost two of its last three games.  The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  The Sooners are 25-11-2 ATS in their last 38 meetings with Baylor.  Take Oklahoma Tuesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are 3-0 since Jason Kidd was fired.  They have returned with a new focus and realize they weren’t playing hard enough or well enough for Kidd.  Their last two games have resulted in a 25-point home win over Brooklyn and a 14-point road win at Chicago. 

Now the Bucks will be out for revenge from a 94-116 road loss at Philadelphia on January 20th just over a week ago.  It’s certainly worth noting that the Bucks were short-handed in that game, playing without both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Malcolm Brogdon.  Anteteokounmpo is back healthy and playing at an MVP level, while Brogdon could make his return tonight. 

This is a tough spot for the 76ers, who will be playing their third straight road game, the second of a back-to-back, and their 3rd game in 4 days.  I don’t know that they’ll have much left in the tank after facing the Spurs and Thunder on the road the past two games, and now making this trip to Milwaukee to play for a second consecutive day. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - a good shooting team making 48% or better on the season, after two straight games making 9 or more 3-point shots are 145-80 (64.4%) ATS since 1996.  The Bucks are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  The 76ers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  Take the Bucks Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3 

The Indiana Pacers have been one of the most underrated teams all season.  They have played without star center Myles Turner for much of the campaign, but he is healthy now and the Pacers will be dangerous moving forward. 

The Charlotte Hornets have been as inconsistent as they come.  They are just 20-28 SU & 19-25-4 ATS on the season.  They are 6-14 SU & 7-10-1 ATS on the road.  They are getting way too much respect from the books as only 3-point road underdogs to the Pacers tonight. 

Indiana is 19-5 straight up in its last 24 home meetings with Charlotte.  The Pacers have won their last two home meetings with the Hornets by 21 and 16 points, respectively.  The home team has won five straight meetings in this series overall. 

The Pacers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 Monday games.  Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Charlotte is 4-9-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pacers Monday. 

15* Notre Dame/Duke ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Duke -14.5 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish caught a tough break when their best player Bonzi Colson (21.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) was lost for the season on January 9th with a foot injury.  Then they were dealt another big blow when their second-best player Matt Farrell (15.7 ppg, 5.3 apg) suffered an ankle injury. 

Colson has missed the past seven games and Farrell has missed four games recently and both remain out.  Not to mention, they are playing without top 6th man D.J. Harvey (5.8 ppg), who has missed the past two games.  It’s no surprise that the Fighting Irish have struggled, going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Now Notre Dame will be up against a motivated Duke team that is coming off a rare home loss to Virginia over the weekend.  Look for the Blue Devils to pour it on the Fighting Irish in this one.  Notre Dame simply won’t have the offensive punch without Colson, Farrell and Harvey to keep up with a Duke team that is scoring 90.3 points per game this season. 

Duke is 145-112 ATS in its last 257 games as a home favorite of 10 points or more.  The Blue Devils are 56-29 ATS in their last 85 home games with a total set of 140 to 149.5 points.  Duke is 176-134 ATS in its last 310 games following an ATS loss, including 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  The Blue Devils are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Roll with Duke Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2 

The Chicago Bulls come in highly motivated for a victory following three consecutive losses, including two by 5 points or fewer.  Look for them to get back on track with an ‘upset’ home victory over the Milwaukee Bucks today. 

The Bulls are an impressive 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  They have been undervalued for a couple months now.  Chicago is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. 

The Bulls have owned the Bucks, going 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Milwaukee this season, actually winning each of their first two meetings on the road 115-109 as 8.5-point dogs and 115-106 as 7.5-point dogs.  Now there’s no way they should be underdogs at home. 

The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Bulls are 17-6 ATS off a home game this season.  Chicago is 9-1 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams that get out rebounded by 3-plus boards per game this season.  The Bucks are 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % below .600.  Milwaukee is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 Sunday games.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +9 

The Indiana Hoosiers are improving rapidly in head coach Archie Miller’s first season in Bloomington.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. 

The Hoosiers have been very impressive at home of late.  Indeed, the Hoosiers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  They now have the confidence to hang with a team of Purdue’s caliber. 

I think the Boilermakers come in overvalued due to their No. 3 national ranking.  They are starting to have to lay some big numbers, and it’s going to make it difficult for them to cover.  Asking them to win by double-digits on the road to beat us here is asking too much. 

Indiana is 29-16 ATS in all home games over the last three seasons.  Purdue is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60% after 15-plus games.  The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Take Indiana Sunday. 

20* Villanova/Marquette FOX Sunday No-Brainer on Marquette +8 

Marquette only lost 90-100 at Villanova as 16-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 6th.  Now the Golden Eagles are catching 8 points at home in the rematch and will be out for revenge today. 

We saw last year the Golden Eagles pull off their biggest win of the season at home over Villanova.  They beat the Wildcats 74-72 as 5-point home underdogs.  They have a very good home-court advantage as they are 9-3 on their home floor this year. 

Villanova being the No. 1 ranked team in the country puts a huge target on their backs.  It also has them overvalued because the betting public wants to back them, especially since they have covered three in a row coming in. 

Villanova is 3-11 ATS after having won 18 or more of their last 20 games over the past three seasons.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  The Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Bet Marquette Sunday. 

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Virginia Tech +4 

It’s mind-blowing that the Fighting Irish are actually favored here Saturday against Virginia Tech.  They Fighting Irish are without their two best players in Bonzie Colson (21.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) and Matt Farrell (15.7 ppg, 5.3 apg).  They are also missing D.J. Harvey (5.8 ppg). 

All these injuries have really put the Fighting Irish behind the eight ball.  They are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  I really don’t understand how they can even be favored here, especially against a team that caliber of Virginia Tech. 

The Hokies come in undervalued after losing two of their last three.  But they righted the ship with an impressive 80-69 upset victory over UNC last time out.  And now they realize they need to win games like this against Notre Dame if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. 

Notre Dame is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after two straight games where it attempted 12 or fewer free throws.  The Hokies are 24-10-1 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS win.  The Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Buzz Williams is 9-1 ATS off two straight games where they made 10 or more 3-point shots as the coach of the Hokies.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Heat UNDER 205 

This will already be the 4th and final meeting of the 2017-18 season between the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat.  It’s safe to say that they are familiar with one another, and that familiarity certainly favors the defenses. 

These teams just played one week ago today with Miami winning 106-105 at Charlotte.  I think this rematch will be much more low scoring, especially with the way the Heat are playing of late.  And the Hornets have lost the first three meetings, so they will be fighting extra hard defensively to try and avoid the season sweep. 

The Heat have combined for 189 points with Houston and 177 points with Sacramento in their last two games coming in.  The Heat are one of the better defensive teams in the league giving up 101.5 points per game, but their offense has struggled all season at 100.7 points per game. 

Charlotte is 18-6 UNDER when revenging a home loss over the last two seasons.  Miami is 21-6 UNDER when its opponent allowed 100 points or more in its previous game.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Heat last 13 home games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Hornets last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in in Hornets last six games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Miami.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* Kentucky/West Virginia ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kentucky +10 

When is the last time you remember Kentucky being a double-digit underdog under John Calipari?  I can’t recall it, and I certainly am going to take advantage today and back the Wildcats in this big underdog role against the WVU Mountaineers. 

I realize this isn’t one of Calipari’s best teams, but the Wildcats are still 15-5 and improving every day.  That’s the best part about his teams is that they improve as much as anyone in the country over the course of the season with all of the freshmen he plays.  Kentucky does have five losses this year, but four have come by 8 points or fewer. 

It’s not like West Virginia is playing well enough right now to warrant being a double-digit favorite, either.  The Mountaineers are 1-3 in their last four games overall.  They lost at Texas Tech and TCU, while also getting upset by Kansas at home.  I think they will struggle with athletes the caliber of Kentucky’s here. 

The Mountaineers are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games vs. SEC opponents.  West Virginia is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Kentucky Saturday. 

20* Virginia/Duke CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Duke -4 

The ACC title is likely on the line when the Virginia Cavaliers (19-1, 8-0) visit the Duke Blue Devils (18-2, 6-2) at Cameron Indoor Stadium Saturday.  Being two games behind the Cavaliers already, the Blue Devils are looking at this as a must-win.  And given their past successes at home against Virginia, I have no doubt they get the win and cover tonight. 

The Blue Devils are 17-0 in their last 17 home meetings with the Cavaliers having not lost since 1995.  Duke hasn’t lost at Cameron Indoor in more than a full calendar year.  The Blue Devils are 10-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 29.4 points per game. 

Virginia has only played five true road games this season.  Their four wins came against VCU, VA Tech, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest.  They were favored in all four games.  In their toughest road game, they lost 61-68 at West Virginia as 4.5-point underdogs.  Now this will be their stiffest road test yet. 

Plays against road teams as an underdog or PK (Virginia) - an excellent defensive team allowing 63 or fewer points per game against an average defensive team (67-74 ppg) after allowing 50 points or less are 46-16 (74.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Duke Saturday. 

20* Big 12/SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +8 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Georgia and ‘sell high’ on Kansas State as this spread has simply got out of hand here Saturday based on recent results.  We’ll gladly take advantage and back the Bulldogs as 8-point road underdogs here to the Wildcats. 

We’ll ‘sell high’ on Kansas State, which comes in 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  That recent success has the Wildcats way overvalued right now.  And this is a huge lookahead spot for Kansas State, which hosts Kansas on Monday.  Their only loss during this stretch came 72-73 at Kansas, so they will be looking ahead at getting revenge. 

Conversely, we’ll ‘buy low’ on Georgia, which is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Bulldogs will be extra motivated for a win here Saturday and with the way they play defense, they are more than capable of pulling off this upset and hanging with the Wildcats. 

Georgia is 15-6 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in road games off a loss over the last two years.  Georgia is 17-5 ATS in road games when playing a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  Kansas State is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Georgia Saturday. 

15* Knicks/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 217 

The Knicks are playing little defense at all right now, which is why they have gone through a 4-14 stretch over their last 18 games.  That has been even more apparent here of late as the OVER is 9-0 in Knicks last nine games overall. 

I think the Knicks are just a tired team right now, and that’s showing up on defense.  They are in the midst of a 7-game road trip and conclude that trip tonight.  During this 9-0 OVER run, the Knicks and their opponents have combined to average 231.6 points per game.  That’s nearly 15 points more than tonight’s posted total of 217. 

I don’t see much changing tonight against a Phoenix Suns team that doesn’t play any defense, either.  The Suns have allowed at least 100 points in 12 consecutive games coming in.  They are giving up 112.2 points per game on the season.  The Knicks are allowing 110.3 points per game on the road. 

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings as the Suns and Knicks have combined to average 222 points per game.  The Knicks beat the Suns 120-107 for 227 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Play on the OVER on any team (New York) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, on Friday nights are 28-5 (84.8%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Cavs UNDER 223.5 

The Pacers and Cavs are extremely familiar with one another.  This will be their 4th and final meeting of the season already.  Based on the way the first three have been trending, it’s safe to say there’s value with the UNDER tonight. 

In Game 1, they combined for 231 points in a shootout.  But Game 2 saw just 208 combined points, and Game 3 saw even less at 192.  As teams become more familiar with each other, the defenses have the advantage. 

The Cavs are looking to do anything they can to play better defense amidst a 1-6 stretch.  Now they have decided to move Kevin Love from Center to Power Forward.  They are inserting Tristan Thompson into the starting center role now, and this will make them a better defensive team. 

Indiana is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 115 points or more this season.  The Pacers are 14-4 UNDER off one or more consecutive overs this season.  Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 220 or more (Cleveland) - excellent free throw shooting team making 79% or better against a good FT shooting team (76%-79%) after 42-plus games are 25-4 (86.2%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Raptors UNDER 208.5 

It’s easy to see there’s value with the UNDER in tonight’s matchup between the Utah Jazz and Toronto Raptors when you look at the recent series history.  Points will be hard to come by tonight. 

The Raptors and Jazz have combined for 209 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They have averaged just 197 combined points in those five meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight’s posted total of 208.5 

Both teams have played in some very low-scoring games here of late.  Utah combined for 194 points with Atlanta and then 193 points with Detroit in its last two games despite going to overtime against the Pistons.  Toronto combined for 187 with Detroit, 169 with San Antonio and 201 with Atlanta in three of its last four games. 

Utah is 8-1 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Toronto is 14-5 UNDER vs. good 3-point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts this season.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Jazz last eight games following a win.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Raptors last 10 home games. 

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Utah) - off an upset win as an underdog against an opponent that’s off a road win are 48-19 (71.6%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Wichita State -13.5 

It’s safe to say the Wichita State Shockers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight following back-to-back upset losses to SMU at home and Houston on the road.  Look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season now at home against UCF. 

The UCF Knights are extremely vulnerable moving forward.  They just lost arguably their most important player in center Tacko Fall (11.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.0 bpg) to a season-ending shoulder injury last time out.  A.J. Davis (10.4 ppg, 8.4 rpg) is nursing an ankle injury as well.  The Knights are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by 9 at UConn, by 11 at home to Cincinnati and barely escaping with a 71-69 victory as 9.5-point favorites over lowly South Florida. 

Wichita State is 34-17 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Shockers are 6-0 ATS versus poor offensive teams that score 64 or fewer points per game over the last three years.  Take Wichita State Thursday. 

20* Wizards/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4.5 

Since December 1st, the Oklahoma City Thunder are 14-0 when all five of their normal starters play.  That’s Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Andre Roberson and Steven Adams.  They are full healthy now and have all five starters going tonight. 

The Thunder will also be playing with a chip on their shoulder in the short-term, especially Paul George.  Westbrook and head coach Billy Donovan have both been vocal in the media about how George should have made the All-Star team.  He was arguably the biggest snub in the entire NBA, and he’ll be playing with added motivation moving forward. 

The Wizards have lost five of their last eight games overall.  They are in turmoil right now.  Their players’ only meeting clearly did not go very well.  In their first game after the meeting, they lost 75-98 on the road to the Dallas Mavericks.  And now they are dealing with an injury to one of their best players on Otto Porter Jr., who is questionable with a hip injury tonight. 

Washington is 3-11 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Washington.  The Thunder are 8-0 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Wizards, winning by an average is 11.1 points per game.  The Wizards are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Bet the Thunder Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +13.5 

I really like the situation for the Temple Owls tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 53-55 home loss to Cincinnati as 7.5-point underdogs on January 4th.  I backed the Owls with success in that game, and I’m backing them again tonight as they are catching a whopping 13.5 points on the road in the rematch. 

No team has played Cincinnati tougher than Temple in recent years.  Each of the last five meetings have been decided by 7 points or less.  The Owls are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Temple is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Cincinnati. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Temple) - revenging a close loss vs. opponent by 3 points or less against a team that is off two straight wins over conference opponents are 46-17 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Temple Wednesday. 

20* Louisville/Miami ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Miami -4 

The Miami Hurricanes come in motivated for a victory after losing three of their last five to drop to 14-4 on the season.  But they are 6-1 at home this season and winning by 18.8 points per game.  Their only home loss came to Duke when they blew a double-digit second half lead. 

I think Louisville comes into this game getting too much respect from oddsmakers for going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  Now the Cardinals are only catching 4 points on the road to a team that is clearly better than them in Miami, and I have no doubt that will show on the court tonight. 

Louisville is 9-19 ATS in road games off a win over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 2-10 ATS in road games versus teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the past three seasons.  Jim Larranaga is 17-8 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of Miami.  Larranaga is 11-3 ATS after allowing 80 points or more as the coach of the Hurricanes.  Take Miami Wednesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +6 

The Chicago Bulls continue to be greatly underrated despite going 20-5 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  They are also 15-9 SU in their last 24 games.  They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall heading into this showdown with the Philadelphia 76ers. 

The 76ers are starting to get too much love after going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Now they are being asked to lay 6 points at home to these red-hot Bulls.  This is only the second time in the past 14 games that the 76ers have been a favorite of 6 points or more. 

The Bulls have really had the 76ers’ number in recent years, going 14-1 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  That’s another reason they should not be catching 6 points in a game they will likely win outright again tonight.  Especially with the 76ers playing without three key players in Markelle Fultz, J.J. Redick and T.J. McConnell. 

Chicago is 9-1 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game.  The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Philadelphia.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday. 

15* Cavs/Spurs TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Cleveland -1.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers held a players’ only meeting on Monday following their 124-148 home loss to Oklahoma City on Saturday.  They hashed out their problems, and I look for them to put forth a big effort tonight in San Antonio working on two days’ rest. 

The Spurs aren’t playing much better right now.  They are just 2-4 in their last six games overall with losses to the Lakers, Hawks and Pacers in there.  A big reason for the Spurs’ struggles right now is all of their injuries, while the Cavs come in healthy. 

The Spurs are without Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, Pau Gasol and Manu Ginobli.  Those are four of their best players, and they simply don’t have the talent on the bench to replace them.  Until they get healthy, the Spurs are going to continue to struggle to win games. 

Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Antonio) - after scoring 90 points or less in two straight games against an opponent after two straight games where both teams scored 100 or more points are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Cavaliers Tuesday. 

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley -1 

The Bradley Braves are one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  And getting them as only 1-point home favorites against the Missouri State Bears is a gift from oddsmakers here tonight. 

Bradley is a perfect 10-0 SU & 7-0 ATS at home this season.  The Braves are outscoring their opponents by 15.8 points per game at home this year. 

Missouri State is 1-4 straight up in its last five true road games.  It has lost at Drake, Evansville, Illinois State and Oral Roberts, four teams that aren’t as good as this Bradley squad. 

The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Braves are 22-4-2 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Take Bradley Tuesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia -1.5 

The Georgia Bulldogs come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three of their last four with three of those four on the road.  Now they return home tonight and will be looking to get back in the win column.  Georgia is 8-1 at home this season. 

The Arkansas Razorbacks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  The Razorbacks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Arkansas is just 2-4 SU in its last six games with its two victories coming by a combined 6 points at home over Missouri and Ole Miss.  Three of the four losses came by double-digits with a 15-point loss at Florida, a 21-point home loss to LSU and an 11-point road loss at Auburn. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Razorbacks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight SEC games.  The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Georgia is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss.  Arkansas is 3-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Georgia Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +6.5 

The Chicago Bulls continue to be massively underrated despite going 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  They are also 15-8 SU in their last 23 games overall.   

Now they are catching 6.5 points against the New Orleans Pelicans Monday.  I’ll gladly continue backing them at a tremendous value in a game they certainly have the ability to win outright tonight. 

The road team has dominated this series.  The road team is 23-9-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings.  The Bulls are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to New Orleans. 

Chicago is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Bulls come in rested as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.  That’s important because Chicago is 12-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Bet the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10 

The Charlotte Hornets can’t be laying double-digits against anyone right now.  They are just 18-26 on the season, including 12-13 at home.  I’ll gladly fade them here tonight in the double-digit favorite role. 

Certainly there hasn’t been a lot to like about the Kings of late as they have lost seven straight games coming in.  But that also gives us the opportunity to ‘buy low’ on them at this double-digit price. 

Charlotte is 3-13 ATS in home games off two consecutive home games over the past two seasons.  The Hornets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Charlotte is 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

Plays on road underdogs (Sacramento) after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread against opponent that covered two of their last three are 164-101 (61.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Kings Monday. 

15* UNC/VA Tech ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +5 

It’s safe to say the Virginia Tech Hokies come into this game with the UNC Tar Heels highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost two straight to Louisville and FSU and four of their last six games overall.  They need a signature win at home here tonight to stem the tide. 

The Tar Heels come in a bit overvalued following four straight victories.  But the four came against Boston College, an injury-ravaged Notre Dame, Clemson and Georgia Tech with three of the four at home.  But the Tar Heels have only covered one of their last seven games overall. 

Virginia Tech is 10-2 at home this season, winning by an average of nearly 20 points per game.  The Hokies are scoring 88.2 points per game and shooting a ridiculous 54.2% from the floor at home.  They are scoring 85.6 points per game and shooting 52.1% on the season, so this team is loaded offensively. 

The Hokies are 12-3 ATS as a home underdog or PK over the last three seasons.  Virginia Tech is 11-1 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest over the last three seasons.  The Tar Heels are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Hokies are 24-10-1 ATS in their last 35 home games.  The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with UNC.  Roll with Virginia Tech Monday. 

20* Vikings/Eagles NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -3 

Everyone thinks the Minnesota Vikings got lucky to be here in the NFC Championship Game.  They saw that the Vikings needed basically a Hail Mary on the last play of the game to beat the Saints.  While that is true, let’s not forget how that game played out. 

Minnesota stormed out to a 17-0 halftime lead and still led 17-0 deep into the 3rd quarter.  I think they simply relaxed, and it’s tough to hold an offense as good as the Saints down for four quarters.  Drew Brees and the Saints’ top-ranked offense finally got on track, and coupled with a few mistakes by the Vikings with an interception in their own territory and a blocked punt, and the Saints got right back into the game. 

I like to focus not the fact that the Vikings held the Saints scoreless for nearly three quarters.  That’s no small feat.  The Vikings rank 1st in total defense (275.9 yards/game), 1st in yards per play (4.6/play) and 1st in scoring defense (15.8 points/game).  They also are 1st in 3rd down defense (25%).  They are the first team since 1991 to hold all 16 of their opponents to fewer than 40% 3rd down conversions during the regular season. 

In the NFL, defense travels, and I’ll gladly back the best defense in the NFL.  But the Minnesota offense doesn’t get the credit they deserve.  They scored 24 points per game and averaged 357 yards per game during the regular season.  Case Keenum threw 22 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions while completing 67.6% of his passes and averaging 7.4 per attempt.  And the Vikings have run the ball well behind a vastly improved offensive line.  They rushed for 100-plus yards in eight consecutive games to close the regular season, and in 13 of their 16 games overall. 

Many felt that the Vikings were cursed, and they were certainly feeling that way with 10 seconds to play before that Hail Mary.  But after getting that ‘Minneapolis Miracle’, I really like the mindset of this team now.  The Vikings feel like they are playing on house money and will be playing freely.  There won’t be a single situation they face Sunday that will scare them.  They will have the belief they can win no matter what the circumstances.  They really believe it’s their year now. 

The Eagles have a strong defense as well this season, but the difference in this game is going to be the fact that their woeful offense just won’t be able to do anything against this Minnesota defense.  The Eagles have managed just 13, 0 and 15 points in their last three games overall.  Yes, they scored 19 against Oakland, but I don’t count 6 of those points because they got a fumble-six on the final play of the game. 

The Eagles have managed just 81.3 rushing yards per game and 175 passing yards per game in their last three contests, an average of just 251.3 yards per game.  And that came against some suspect defenses in Oakland, Dallas and Atlanta all at home.  Now the Eagles will be up against the best defense they have faced all season, and I don’t expect that to turn out well at all for struggling quarterback Nick Foles. 

Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in road games after having won five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons.  The Vikings are 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75% over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Minnesota.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa PK 

The Northern Iowa Panthers got off to a tough start in Missouri Valley play.  They opened 0-5 with four of their losses coming by 7 points or less.  But they have turned the corner here of late, winning and covering back-to-back games against Drake and Valparaiso. 

Now Northern Iowa will be out for revenge for one of those close losses, a 53-56 home loss to Southern Illinois.  I look for the Panthers to get their revenge today and beat the Salukis for the 5th time in the last 6 meetings. 

Southern Illinois is not playing well at all right now.  The Salukis are 2-4 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their two wins both came at home by a combined 6 points with a 2-point win over Evansville and a 4-point win over Illinois State. 

Northern Iowa is 13-4 ATS off two straight conference wins over the last three seasons.  Southern Illinois is 1-7 ATS after giving up 9 or fewer offensive rebounds in two straight games this season.  The Salukis are 2-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Northern Iowa Sunday. 

15* Jags/Patriots AFC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on New England -8 

The New England Patriots are the most popular team in the NFL.  And despite that, they have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They won the Super Bowl last year, the betting public keeps backing them, and they keep covering.  I can’t even explain how difficult that is. 

Now the Patriots are a win away from another Super Bowl appearance.  They made easy work of the Titans 35-14 last week and even gave up a garbage touchdown in the final seconds on fourth down to turn that from a 28-point game into a 21-point game.  And it’s worth noting the Titans went 2-0 against the Jaguars this season, outscoring them by 29 points in those two matchups. 

The Patriots couldn’t possibly be more rested right now.  They haven’t had to leave home since December 17th, so they have been in New England for over a month now.  They had a bye coming into the playoffs, while the Jaguars have had to win two games in the playoffs and played their starters in Week 17.  So the Jaguars are certainly fatigued in comparison to the Patriots. 

I trust Bill Belichick to make the Jaguars play left-handed.  They want to run the football and rely on their defense, making things easier on Blake Bortles.  Look for the Patriots to stop the run and make Bortles try and beat them.  Bortles has a 103 passer rating when playing with a lead, and a 66 rating when playing from behind this season.  I fully expect the Jaguars to be playing from behind. 

Last week’s misleading 45-42 win over the Steelers last week has the Jaguars overvalued.  The Steelers didn’t take them seriously and were looking ahead.  They dug themselves and early 21-point deficit thanks to a fumble-six and another interception that set up the Jaguars in the red zone for another score.  But we saw how vulnerable this Jaguars defense was the rest of the way as the Steelers racked up 545 total yards and 462 passing yards against them. 

You know Tom Brady and company are going to be able to move the ball and score points.  I think Rob Gronkowski is going to be a huge matchup problem for the Jaguars.  We saw Steelers tight end Vance McDonald catch 10 balls for 112 yards against the Jaguars last week.  You can only imagine the kind of game Gronkowski is going to have because he’ll be matched up with linebackers.  The Jaguars cannot afford to put Jalen Ramsey on him the whole game, and he probably won’t guard him at all. 

The Jaguars have a strong running game with Leonard Fournette, but Fournette was knocked out of the Steelers game with an ankle injury.  When he finally came back in the lineup in the second half, he wasn’t nearly as effective.  I think the rookie is starting to wear down now, and he certainly won’t be 100% for this game.  On the other side, Rex Burkhead is expected to return to the lineup for the Patriots this week, giving them another option in an already loaded backfield. 

If you’re betting on the Jaguars, you’re betting on Blake Bortles.  That’s not going to be a strategy I want any part of here.  Bortles is just 41-of-83 (49.4%) passing for 459 yards (153 yards/game) with two touchdowns and two interceptions in his last three games.  Belichick will make him try and beat them, and I don’t think he’s even close to being capable.  When the Jaguars get behind, there will be no coming back. 

New England is 8-0 ATS against teams who average 350 or more yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Patriots are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Jacksonville is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game.  New England is 12-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games over the past two seasons.  The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff home games.  These five trends combine for a 44-3 system backing New England.  Take the Patriots Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Magic/Celtics UNDER 208 

The reason for the success of the Boston Celtics has been their work on the defensive end of the court.  The Celtics rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.5 points per 100 possessions. 

But despite being such a young team, the Celtics actually run more of an old-school offense under Brad Stevens.  They slow it down and get the best shot available.  In fact, the Celtics rank just 20th in the NBA in pace.  Now the Celtics are dealing with an injury to their best player in Kyrie Irving, who missed last game with a shoulder injury. 

The Magic have a ton of injuries of their own right now that have really hampered them, especially offensively.  The Celtics are playing without Nikola Vucevic, Terrance Ross, Jonathan Isaac and Arron Afflalo.  The UNDER is 12-6 in their last 16 games overall and they have been held to less than 100 points in eight of those games. 

I think both teams will be sleep walking through this game Sunday with such an early start time, which will help aid the UNDER.  Boston is 22-9 UNDER after allowing 90 points or less over the last two seasons.  Orlando is 12-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 70% over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Magic last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pacific +9.5 

St. Mary’s is in a massive letdown spot here Saturday.  The Gaels are coming off an upset 74-71 win at Gonzaga as 7.5-point underdogs.  They exorcised some demons from losing all three meetings with the Zags last year. 

Now they’re up against a massively underrated Pacific team that will be upset-minded.  Pacific has gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall, including an upset win over BYU.  The only loss came at St. Mary’s 56-74 on January 4th, so they will also be in revenge mode here tonight. 

St. Mary’s is 4-22 ATS in its last 26 games off three consecutive road games.  Pacific is 7-0 ATS off a conference game this season.  The Gaels are 0-4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Pacific Saturday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Pelicans UNDER 212 

Memphis at New Orleans just played on January 10th with Memphis winning 105-102 at home.  So these teams will be very familiar with one another playing just over a week later here Saturday, which favors the defenses. 

This has been a very low-scoring series as it is.  In fact, the Grizzlies and Pelicans have combined to average just 189.4 points per game at the end of regulation in their last nine meetings.  That’s roughly 23 points less than tonight’s posted total of 212. 

Each of the last nine meetings between Memphis and New Orleans have seen 207 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  That makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 212-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Providence -2 

Providence will be out for revenge from a 64-83 road loss at Creighton back on December 31st.  But Providence was way banged up for that game, and now they are almost fully healthy.  Look for them to get that revenge at home this time around. 

Creighton is just 1-3 in its last four true road games.  Providence is 9-2 at home this season, recently beating the likes of Butler by 10 and Xavier by 9. 

Providence is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Friars are 6-0 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Providence is 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scores 75 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Bluejays are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win.  Roll with Providence Saturday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -2 

Seton Hall comes in motivated for a victory after losing two of its last three games.  Both were on the road, and now the Pirates are at home today for a big matchup with Xavier. 

Seton Hall is a perfect 11-0 at home this season, winning by 16.4 points per game on average.  Xavier is 0-2 in its last two true road games, losing at Providence by 9 and Villanova by 24. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings.  Seton Hall is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings, and 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Seton Hall Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -1.5 

We are getting a massive discount on the Virginia Tech Hokies at home here Saturday.  They basically just have to win the game to cover, and I think they will do just that against Florida State. 

Virginia Tech is 10-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Virginia.  Florida State’s true colors have shown in ACC play as the Seminoles are just 2-4 SU & 2-3-1 ATS so far with their only two wins coming at home over UNC by 1 and Syracuse in OT. 

The Seminoles are 0-3 in their last three true road games.  FSU is 1-8 ATS in January road games over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 home games.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +9 

I like the situation for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep to the Nuggets after losing each of the first three meetings in this season.  This will be their 4th and final meeting and the last chance for the Suns to beat the Nuggets. 

Injuries to the Suns were a big reason for those three previous losses.  And now that they are mostly healthy they are ready to give Denver a run for its money.  Plus, the Suns are rested having two days off coming into this game, and this will be just their 4th game in 12 days dating back further. 

Denver will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days and its 9th game in 15 days.  The Nuggets played in Los Angeles on Wednesday and there’s certainly some distractions that go with that.  Also, I don’t expect the Nuggets to be very motivated at all tonight after already beating the Suns three times this season. 

The Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days’ rest.  Phoenix is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Nuggets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet the Suns Friday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -7 

It’s safe to say the Utah Utes will be highly motivated for a victory at home here tonight.  They got off to a 10-3 start this season but have lost four straight since.  They will be laying it all on the line to get a victory here at home against Washington tonight. 

It’s easy to see why they have lost four in a row.  They had to play arguably the two best teams in the Pac-12 in Arizona and Arizona State at home, while also losing on the road to the next two best teams in the conference in UCLA and USC.  So their losing streak can be attributed to a brutal schedule as they have been an underdog in all four games. 

Now in comes one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 in Washington tonight.  This is a Washington team that is 3-2 in conference play, but two of the wins came against two of the worst teams in Washington State and California.  They just lost by 9 at home to Stanford and were beaten by 21 at UCLA.  I don’t expect them to be able to hang with the motivated Utes tonight. 

Utah has owned Washington, going 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Utes have won all seven meetings by 5 points or more.  They won their two meetings last season by 22 and 24 points.  They have each of their last four home meetings with Washington by an average of 15.5 points per game. 

Utah is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 following four or more consecutive losses.  Washington is 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 games following a loss.  The Utes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  The Huskies are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Roll with Utah Thursday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +8 

Over the past two seasons, Josh Pastner and Georgia Tech have pulled some huge upsets on a regular basis at home.  They Their most recent this season have been wins over Miami and Georgia Tech in their last two ACC home games.  They are more than capable of hanging with Virginia tonight. 

The Yellow Jackets are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The key to their resurgence has been leading scorer Josh Okogie (18.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg), who missed eight games earlier this season.  Second-leading scorer Tadric Jackson (13.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg) also missed three games earlier.  But now the Yellow Jackets are fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season. 

Virginia has won eight in a row coming in, which has them overvalued.  But they have benefited from playing seven of their last eight games at home with their only road win coming at Virginia Tech.  They lost their previous road game at West Virginia and have played just three true road games all season, also winning at VCU by 9. 

Georgia Tech is 11-1 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Georgia Tech is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 ACC games.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Georgia Tech Thursday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +10.5 

The Orlando Magic have been grossly undervalued here in recent weeks.  That’s because they have gone 2-16 straight up in their last 18 games overall.  But now they are starting to catch too many points on a nightly basis, and they shouldn’t be catching double-digit points against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. 

The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 4 to Cleveland as 8.5-point home underdogs, by 7 at Milwaukee as 10.5-point underdogs, by 6 at Washington as 10.5-point dogs, and beat Minnesota by 6 as 8.5-point home dogs in their four covers.  So that also makes this a revenge spot for the Magic, who will be looking for payback from their 127-131 home loss to the Cavs on January 6th. 

Cleveland cannot be laying this kind of weight right now.  The Cavaliers are just 3-9 SU & 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are coming off a gut-wrenching 108-118 home loss to the Warriors, their biggest rivals.  That sets them up for a hangover spot here as they won’t be nearly as excited to face the Magic tonight, a team they just beat 12 days ago. 

Perhaps my favorite trend of the entire season is that Cleveland is 0-11 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season.  They are actually losing these games 111.3 to 112.2 on average.  The Cavaliers are 1-10 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season as well.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Creighton -4 

Creighton doesn’t have to wait long to get revenge from an 84-90 road loss at Seton Hall on December 28th in their Big East opener.  The Bluejays blew a 53-42 halftime lead and have not forgotten.  Look for them to have their revenge against the Pirates at home this time around. 

Creighton has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Bluejays are 11-0 SU & 7-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 26.5 points per game.  They are scoring 93.5 points per game and shooting 54.2% at home this year. 

Seton Hall has only played four true road games this season and has gone 2-2 straight up.  The Pirates have lost two of their last three road games in ugly fashion.  They lost 64-84 as 1-point favorites at Marquette and 65-71 as 8.5-point favorites at Rutgers.  This will be their toughest challenge yet on the road this season. 

Creighton is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 home games off three or more consecutive unders.  The Bluejays are 6-0 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  Creighton is 26-13 ATS in its last 39 home games when revenging a same season loss.  The Bluejays are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS loss.  The Bluejays are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a SU loss.  Bet Creighton Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the last few weeks.  They have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have won three of their last four home games with their only loss coming by 2 as 4.5-point underdogs to Washington. 

Now they get to face a New York Knicks team that has been dreadful on the road all season.  The Knicks are just 5-15 SU & 8-12 ATS on the road this year.  They are losing by 7.4 points per game and giving up 107.9 points per game on the highway. 

The Grizzlies are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Knicks.  Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Memphis.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso +8 

The Valparaiso Crusaders don’t have to wait long to avenge their 50-67 home loss to Missouri State back on December 31st.  They were banged up back then and now they are much healthier.  And they’re catching 8 points on the road to the Bears this time around. 

Missouri State is 4-2 in conference play this season, but three of the four wins came by 7 points or less.  They aren’t blowing teams out, and that 17-point win over Valpo earlier was the aberration.  I think this rematch goes right down to the wire tonight.  The Crusaders are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. 

Valparaiso is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 games when revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points. Missouri State is 9-20 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  Missouri State is 21-43 ATS in its last 64 games off a conference home win.  Roll with Valparaiso Wednesday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane +7.5 

Head coach Mike Dunleavy has injected life into this Tulane Green Wave basketball program.  This is one of the most improved teams in the country at 11-6 on the season.  I like the value we are getting with the Green Wave catching 7.5 points at home to Houston. 

Houston is also an improved team at 14-3 under Kelvin Sampson.  But I think this is a tough spot for the Cougars, who have only had two days to prepare for Tulane.  And they have a rematch coming up with Wichita State on Saturday, and I can’t help but think they will be looking ahead to that huge matchup. 

Tulane comes in undervalued off back-to-back losses at Memphis and at home to UConn.  But just before those two losses, they upset SMU 73-70 as 8.5-point home dogs and Temple 85-75 as 10-point road dogs.   

The Green Wave are 8-2 at home this season.  The Cougars are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Green Wave are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit home loss.  Houston is 0-10 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 16 or more assists per game over the last two seasons.  Bet Tulane Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Hawks +2.5 

Despite having one of the worst records in the NBA, the Atlanta Hawks have been a real money maker for bettors.  They are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  Now they are home underdogs to the New Orleans Pelicans when they shouldn’t be. 

This is a tough spot for the Pelicans, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  And they are coming off back-to-back overtime road wins against the Knicks and Celtics.  They are in a clear letdown spot here after that huge win in Boston last night, and they won’t have much left in the tank. 

This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for the Hawks, who beat the Spurs 102-99 as 5.5-point home underdogs last time out.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) off a road win by 3 points or less, when playing on back-to-back days are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Hawks Wednesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -1 

After a slow start to the season, the Hornets are starting to rally and make their playoff push.  The slow start was due to injuries and the loss of head coach Steve Clifford, who just recently returned to the bench.  The Hornets have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall and are now pretty much healthy. 

The Wizards just aren’t playing very well at all right now.  They have lost three of their last five despite playing all five games at home.  And they are also 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  Now they continue getting too much respect from oddsmakers as only 1-point road underdogs to the Hornets here. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 straight up in the last 10 meetings.  The Wizards are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida -6 

The Florida Gators are coming off an upset road loss at Ole Miss last time out.  That ended a six-game winning streak.  Look for the Gators to come back highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Arkansas Razorbacks. 

This Arkansas team is not playing well at all right now and is extremely vulnerable.  The Razorbacks have lost three of their last four games coming in with their only win coming by 2 points at home against Missouri.  They lost by 21 at home to LSU the game before.  The Razorbacks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Florida is 11-0 straight up in all home meetings with Arkansas dating back to 1997.  Arkansas is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games.  Florida is 11-3 ATS when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) over the last two seasons.  The Razorbacks are 1-7 ATS vs. very good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  Arkansas is 0-6 ATS in its last six SEC games.  Take Florida Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4.5 

The Boston Celtics have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA all season.  They are 34-10 SU & 27-15-2 ATS in their 44 games this season.  And now they’re still not getting the respect they deserve as only 4.5-point home favorites over the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. 

This is a great spot for the Celtics as well.  They will be fresh and ready to go.  This will be just their 2nd game in 10 days, which is extremely rare in the NBA.  But it’s easy to see why as they played the 76ers in London on January 11th, so they needed extra time off to travel.  But this extra rest will be a huge boost for the team moving forward. 

The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Pelicans.  Boston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The Pelicans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the Celtics Tuesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +8.5

This game is the perfect storm.  The Orlando Magic couldn’t possibly be more undervalued right now after going just 1-16 SU in their last 17 games overall.  That has started to show of late as they’ve gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games, losing by 4 to Cleveland, by 7 at Milwaukee and by 6 at Washington.  They are starting to catch too many points. 

Conversely, the Timberwolves couldn’t be more overvalued right now.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But all five games were at home.  Now they hit the road where they have lost three of their last four games to Brooklyn, Boston and Milwaukee out East. 

Minnesota is 18-43 ATS in its last 61 games after scoring 120 points or more.  The Timberwolves are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The Magic are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Timberwolves.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Magic Tuesday. 

15* Clemson/UNC ACC Tuesday No-Brainer on Clemson +7.5 

To say the Clemson Tigers will be motivated for a victory tonight against the UNC Tar Heels would be a massive understatement.  One of the most shocking streaks in college basketball history is on the line tonight.  The Tar Heels are 58-0 against Clemson in Chapel Hill all-time, which marks the longest home winning streak against any opponent in NCAA history. 

But this is the first time in a long time that Clemson may actually have the better team.  The Tigers are 15-2 this season and have been underrated for much of the year, going 9-5 ATS in their lined games.  Even Roy Williams said this is the best team that Brad Brownell has probably ever had at Clemson, and I agree. 

UNC has been extremely vulnerable this season.  The Tar Heels have recent road losses to Florida State and Virginia, and they were upset by Wofford at home in late December.  They only beat Notre Dame 69-68 on the road last time out, a Fighting Irish team that was paying without their two best players.  They also have a recent narrow 73-69 home win as 14-point favorites over Wake Forest. 

Clemson is 6-0 ATS after having won six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Tar Heels are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win.  UNC is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six vs. ACC opponents.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Clemson Tuesday. 

15* Warriors/Cavs TNT Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 233.5 

No two teams are more familiar with one another than the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors. After all, they have met in the NBA Finals in three consecutive seasons.  And familiarity makes it tougher on the offenses and easier on the defenses because they know each other’s tendencies. 

That was certainly on display in the first meeting of the season between the Warriors and Cavs.  That game saw Golden State win 99-92 and stay well UNDER the 215.5-point total on Christmas Day.  Now they are playing just a few weeks later and the total is set at 233.5, so I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER tonight. 

Cleveland is 19-7 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  Golden State is 19-5 UNDER after leading its previous game by 15 or more points at halftime over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Cavaliers last six Monday games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +3.5 

Florida State is coming off a 101-90 (OT) victory at home over Syracuse on Saturday.  Now the Seminoles will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days and won’t have much left in the tank.  Making matters worse for them is that their leading scorer in Terrance Mann (15.1 ppg) is doubtful to play tonight with a concussion. 

Boston College has been one of the more underrated teams in the country this season at 12-6 on the year.  They have been especially tough at home, going 10-1 while beating Duke as a 15-point underdogs.  The Eagles’ only home loss came by a final of 70-74 as 5.5-point underdogs to Clemson. 

Florida State is 2-10 ATS in road games off two consecutive conference games over the last two seasons. The Seminoles are 1-9 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Boston College Monday. 

20* Lakers/Grizzlies TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis -2.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies will be playing more inspired today than they would on any average night.  It’s Martin Luther King Day, and with Memphis being the place of MLK’s death, this day holds an even more special day for these players and their fans.  Look for a big effort from them tonight. 

The Grizzlies have been much more competitive of late, going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I believe they are currently undervalued.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 meetings.  The Grizzlies are 6-0 straight up in their last six home meetings with the Lakers. 

Los Angeles is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  But three of those four games were at home, and three were against some of the worst teams in the NBA in Atlanta, Sacramento and Dallas.  The Lakers had lost 12 of their previous 13 games prior to this streak. 

The Lakers could be without two of their best players tonight in Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball, who are both questionable.  The Lakers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Bulls UNDER 207 

Few teams play as hard defensively as the Miami Heat.  That was certainly on display yesterday as the Heat won their seventh consecutive game with a n impressive 97-79 home victory over the Milwaukee Bucks.  I think their offense will suffer playing the second of a back-to-back here, but their defensive intensity will be there to make up for it as they go for their 8th straight victory. 

But it’s the head-to-head history between Miami and Chicago that has me really intrigued by this UNDER. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  All six meetings saw 205 or fewer combined points.  The Bulls and Heat have averaged just 195.2 combined points per game in those six games, which is roughly 12 points less than today’s posted total of 207. 

Miami is 20-6 UNDER in its last 26 games off a win by 10 points or more.  The Heat are 10-1 UNDER in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Heat last nine games playing on 0 days’ rest.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 35-17 in Heat last 52 road games.  The UNDER is 15-4 in Bulls last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday. 

20* Saints/Vikings NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -3.5 

I strongly believe the Minnesota Vikings will be the first team ever to play in their home stadium in the Super Bowl this season.  I feel they are far and away the best team in the NFC, but they don’t get treated like it.  They should be more than 3.5-point home favorites against the New Orleans Saints here. 

Getting the bye is a huge advantage for the Vikings.  They will be rested and ready to go.  And you could argue that they’ve had three byes this season considering they had a bye on November 5th, and their Week 17 game against the Bears didn’t matter.  They will be primed for a big effort. 

Conversely, the Saints have been in playoff mode for at least three straight weeks dating back to their win over the Falcons.  The Saints haven’t had a bye since October 8th which was way back in Week 5.  They were one of the first teams to receive a bye this season.  That will make them even more tired coming into this game. 

And the Saints have been hit hard by injuries defensively, which is a big reason why I’m quick to fade them here Sunday.  They’ve lost basically five starters to season-ending injuries on defense.  They are without LB Alex Anzalone, DE Alex Okafor, LB A.J. Klein, LB Hau’oli Kikaha, S Kenny Vaccaro, DE Mitchell Loewen and CB Delvin Breaux. 

All these injuries and the lack of rest has this New Orleans defense playing awful here down the stretch.  They allowed 31 points and 455 total yards in a loss to the Bucs in Week 17 in which they needed a win to clinch the division.  Then they allowed 26 points and 413 total yards to the Panthers in their 31-26 home win where they were life-and-death in the closing seconds just to win that game. 

One stat that really stands out in these two games is that New Orleans has allowed 60% conversions on 3rd down to the Bucs and Panthers.  They allowed the Bucs to convert 13-of-18 on 3rd down, and the Panthers to convert 8-of-16 on 3rd down. 

Now let’s look at this Minnesota defense, which I believe to be the best stop unit in the NFL.  The Vikings have the No. 1 3rd down defense in the NFL, giving up just 25% conversions on the year.  They are the first team since 1991 to hold all 16 of their opponents to less than 40% 3rd down conversions in every game.  Minnesota ranks 1st in total defense (275.9 yards/game), tied for 1st in yards per play defense (4.6 yards/play) and 1st in scoring defense (15.8 points/game). 

This Minnesota defense has been even better at home.  They allow just 12.5 points per game and 248 yards per game at home this year.  They have only allowed one touchdown in their last five home games combined.  If that’s not dominance, I don’t know what is.  And I think Minnesota’s home-field advantage is worth upwards of 4 points in the playoffs, which will be the most hostile atmosphere the Saints have played in all season. 

After all, these teams already played once in Minnesota back in Week 1.  The Vikings beat the Saints 29-19 in that contest.  They racked up 470 yards of total offense while limiting the Saints to 344 yards, outgaining them by 126 yards in that contest.  These teams are different since then, but I could see a very similar end result with a 10-plus point victory for the Vikings. 

While everyone knows the Vikings’ defense is good, they don’t want to give Case Keenum and the offense their due.  But this offense has been just fine in averaging 24 points and 357 yards per game on the season.  Keenum has thrown 22 touchdowns against only 7 interceptions this season while completing 67.6% of his passes while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt.  And the Vikings have been able to run the ball behind a vastly improved offensive line.  They have rushed for at least 100 yards in eight consecutive games and in 13 of their 16 games this season. 

The Vikings are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 home games, including 12-4 ATS inside their new stadium, which opened last year.  Minnesota is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Mike Zimmer is 9-1 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 24-8 ATS in home games as the coach of Minnesota.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana State +10 

The Indiana State Sycamores are simply catching too many points today against the Missouri State Bears.  They have opened 3-2 in MVC play with their only losses coming by 3 points at Illinois State and by 3 points at home to Drake. 

Missouri State is also 3-2 in MVC play, losing back-to-back games to Illinois State and Evansville.  In their two home MVC games they have only won by 5 and 7 points.  So it’s not like they are blowing teams out. 

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years.  Indeed, each of the last five meetings have been decided by 9 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer.  Two of those games went to overtime. 

The underdog is 16-4-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Missouri State is 9-19 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Paul Lusk is 2-9 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more as the coach of Missouri State.  Bet Indiana State Sunday. 

15* Jaguars/Steelers AFC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -7 

A big reason I faded the Jaguars last week and backed the Bills was the fact that the Jaguars played the 32nd-toughest schedule this season.  That’s right, they played the easiest schedule in the entire NFL.  It was a big reason for their huge turnaround season. 

I also think Doug Marrone made a big mistake playing his starters in Week 17 in a meaningless game against the Titans in which they lost 10-15.  They were already locked in to the No. 3 seed, so there was no need to play the starters.  I think Tom Coughlin was in his ear and his old-school ways overtook him.  It’s really going to cost them this week. 

The Jaguars were fortunate it didn’t cost them last week.  The Bills were the better team but lost 10-3.  They outgained the Jaguars by 39 yards.  They held this woeful Jacksonville offense to just 230 total yards.  Blake Bortles was awful, completing just 12-of-23 passes for 87 yards in the win.  He did shockingly rush for 88 yards, while Leonard Fournette was held to 57 yards on 21 carries.  His legs are the reason they won, but now the Steelers will be prepared for that element of his game after seeing it against Buffalo. 

The Steelers have had horrible luck in the playoffs injury-wise in previous years.  They have been missing one of the Killer B's basically every year they have made the playoffs in recent years, and it’s usually Le’Veon Bell.  But after resting the Killer B’s in Week 17, all three of Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are healthy going into the playoffs.  Brown is expected to return from his calf injury, and the Steelers are remarkably healthy everywhere outside of LB Ryan Shazier now. 

And boy are the Steelers going to be revenge-minded.  They were rusty earlier in the year due to Bell’s suspension and lacked chemistry.  I think that helps their 30-9 home loss to the Jaguars back on October 8th, which is one of the most misleading finals you’ll ever see.  The Steelers outgained the Jaguars 373-313 in that game yet lost by 21.  That only tells half the story. 

Big Ben hard arguably the worst game of his career, throwing five interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns.  A couple of those were tipped balls and weren’t his fault, but he was still jokingly contemplating retirement afterwards.  And Fourtnette had a 90-yard TD run with only 1:47 remaining as they were just trying to run out the clock.  So without that run, the Jaguars would have only had 223 total yards.  I think that’s a number that we can expect them to have in this rematch. 

Bortles only went 8-of-14 passing for 95 yards without an touchdown and with one interception in that game.  And there is the problem with the Jaguars.  They don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Steelers in this game.  I can guarantee you the Steelers are going to be much more productive on offense than they were in the first meeting. 

And the reason they will be more productive is because they won’t put so much on Big Ben’s shoulder.  Look for 30-plus carries from Le’Veon Bell because the Steelers realize they are better when he gets more carries as it has shown throughout their history.  That will open things up for Big Ben in play-action, and they won’t be playing into the Jaguars’ defensive strength, which is their pass defense. 

Big Ben through 55 times in that first meeting.  I only expect him to throw 20-30 times in the rematch.  That will negate the Jacksonville pass rush, which has been their strength all season.  The weakness of the Jaguars is their run defense, which ranked 21st in the league in the regular season, giving up 116.2 rushing yards per game.  The Jaguars have allowed 108 or more rushing yards in six of their last seven games overall. 

With Bortles being one of the worst passing quarterbacks in the NFL, the Jaguars are going to try to run the football.  Well, the Steelers have been stout against the run all season.  They have allowed 91 or fewer rushing yards in 10 of their 16 games this season.  They rank 10th against the run in giving up 105.8 rushing yards per game on the year.  And their defense is significantly improved overall, giving up just 19.2 points per game on the season. 

Pittsburgh is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games when revenging an upset loss against an opponent as a home favorite.  It is coming back to win by 11.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Steelers are 6-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 60% to 75% over the last two seasons.  They are winning these games by 16.5 points per game on average.  Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last eight playoff home games.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2 

They Miami Heat have now won six straight games.  Now they are getting some reinforcements today as both James Johnson and Justise Winslow are returning from injury.  Now at basically full strength, this team is going to continue being dangerous moving forward. 

The Bucks have struggled of late, going 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are coming off a disappointing 94-108 home loss to the Golden State Warriors Friday in which they blew a 4th quarter lead.  I think they’ll suffer a hangover from that loss to the defending champs. 

Miami is 12-1 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 16-5 ATS versus poor rebounding teams getting outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game over the last two seasons.  The Bucks are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 Sunday games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Heat Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1 

We are certainly getting a nice value with the Chicago Bulls at home tonight as only 1-point favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  They just have to win the game essentially to cover, and this team has been doing a lot of winning and covering of late. 

Indeed, the Bulls are 12-7 SU in their last 19 games and 15-5 ATS in their last 10 games.  They have consistently been undervalued over the past month and that hasn’t changed one bit here tonight.  I love the passion this team has played with ever since Nikola Mirotic returned to the lineup. 

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  None of those four meetings were even close as the home team won by 11 points or more in all four meetings and by an average of 17 points per game. 

Detroit is 4-17 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 9-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game this season.  The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  The Pistons are 20-43 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Bulls Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +9.5 

Both the Wizards and Nets played last night, so there will be no advantage there.  The Wizards beat the Magic 125-119, while the Nets beat the Hawks 110-105.  But the difference here is that the Nets have the better bench and will be the fresher team because nobody played big minutes last night. 

Only one player played more than 29 minutes for the Nets, which was the 33 by Allen Crabbe.  Conversely, the Wizards had their three studs in John Wall (36), Bradley Beal (36) and Otto Porter (39) all play big minutes as they were fighting tooth and nail to beat the lowly Magic. 

The Nets have owned the Wizards this season, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in the two previous meetings.  They won 103-98 as 3.5-point home underdogs, and 119-84 as 6-point home dogs.  Now they find themselves catching a whopping 9.5 points in the third meeting, which is simply too much. 

The Nets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Brooklyn is 12-3 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game this season.  Washington is 4-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Nets Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -2 

This is a very tough spot for Texas.  The Longhorns just found out their best player Andrew Jones has Leukemia before the TCU game on Wednesday.  They laid it all on the line for him and came away with a miraculous 99-98 victory in double-overtime. 

TCU missed a wide open layup in the second OT as time expired, making you wonder if the power’s that be made sure that Texas won that game.  Off such an emotional win, and still without their best player in Jones who averages 13.5 points, shoots 52.8% from the field and 47.5% from 3-point range, I expect a big mental letdown tonight against Oklahoma State. 

The Cowboys will be motivated for a win after opening 1-3 in Big 12 play.  Two of those losses were on the road to Oklahoma and Kansas State.  The Cowboys are 9-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in West Virginia and Wichita State. 

The home team is 7-2 straight up in the last nine meetings.  Oklahoma State is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six home meetings.  The Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Cowboys are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday. 

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -2.5 

I was on the Falcons last week and I’m going to back them again this week.  Except this time, they are up against a much weaker opponent than they were last week against the Rams.  The Eagles are only a shell of the team they were with Carson Wentz before. 

A big reason why I loved the Falcons last week is because their perception is way down compared to last year coming into the playoffs.  But they still managed to win 10 games despite playing the 4th-most difficult schedule in the NFL.  And their numbers from a yards per play basis were almost identical to where they were last year, but they struggled in the red zone more than they did last season. 

The Falcons still had to settle for four field goals against the Rams last week, but their offense was productive in a 26-13 victory.  But what really has me excited about this team is how well the defense has been playing down the stretch. 

Indeed, the Falcons have allowed 23 or fewer points in seven consecutive games to close out the season. This despite facing the Saints twice, the Vikings, the Panthers and the Rams, five playoff teams in their final seven games.  They are giving up just 16.3 points per game and 319.2 yards per game in their last six games.  This defense is playing much better than it gets credit for. 

Now the Falcons should have another great defensive showing against an Eagles team that has been terrible on offense in its last two games.  The Eagles were leading Oakland 13-10 before a fluke lateral fumble return for a touchdown on the final play to win 19-10 in Week 16.  Then they lost 0-6 to Dallas despite playing their starters for much of the game. 

The culprit has been the horrible play of backup quarterback Nick Foles.  He is completing just 56.4% of his passes and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt on the season.  He is only averaging 5.0 yards per attempt in his last three games, which came agains the Giants, Cowboys and Raiders.  Those aren’t exactly defensive juggernauts. 

I think a big reason Foles has struggled is because he’s a warm weather quarterback.  He played for Arizona in college and mostly in perfect weather out on the West Coast.  Now he’s in Philadelphia and has played three straight cold weather games at New York, and at home against Oakland and Dallas.  And the temperature Saturday is going to be a high of 30 and a low of 18 with 10 mile per hour winds.  I don’t trust him one bit, and I don’t think the Philadelphia players trust him either. 

As I mentioned before, the Falcons played the 4th-most difficult schedule this season.  The Eagles played the 21st-toughest to compare.  They simply took advantage of an easy schedule, won basically all of their close games, and got great play from Carson Wentz to lead the way.  But Wentz is no longer here to save the day, otherwise this would be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.  The difference from Wentz to Foles is 7-plus points, if not more. 

I still think Atlanta is on a mission to make up for last year’s Super Bowl debacle.  That has shown here down the stretch as they have won four of their last five with their only loss coming on the road to the Saints.  The Eagles have shown signs of being a fraud with Foles against the Giants, Cowboys and Raiders down the stretch, and now they will be up against their best opponent yet in Atlanta. 

Plays on favorites (Atlanta) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games against a hot team, a team that won 8 of their last 10 games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Atlanta is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 7-0 ATS off an upset win as a road dog over the last three years.  Bet the Falcons Saturday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier -3.5 

Xavier will be playing with a chip on its shoulder today after back-to-back road losses to Providence and Villanova to fall to 15-3 on the season.  The Musketeers also want revenge from getting knocked out of the Big East Tournament by Creighton last year, 75-72. 

Xavier is 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 19.2 points per game.  That’s why I have no doubt they’ll get right back on the winning track at home here Saturday as mere 3.5-point home favorites over Creighton. 

The Bluejays have only had to play four true road games this season.  They lost at Gonzaga by 17 and Seton Hall by 6 against the two best teams they played away from home, and two teams similar to Xavier talent-wise.  They beat Northwestern and Georgetown. 

Xavier is 51-28 ATS in its last 79 January home games.  The Musketeers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing a shooting percentage of 55% or higher.  Xavier is 6-0 ATS versus teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Musketeers are 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who average 4-plus boards more than their opponents this season.  The Bluejays are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Take Xavier Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia -4 

The Georgia Bulldogs have been grossly undervalued this season, especially when playing at home.  After blowing a halftime lead and losing at Missouri last time out, I expect the Bulldogs to be playing motivated here at home today. 

And Georgia will be looking to stay unbeaten at home this season.  The Bulldogs are 8-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by an averages of 13.9 points per game.  They have blowout wins over Georgia Tech (80-59), Temple (84-66), Ole Miss (71-60) and Alabama (65-46) in their last four home games, respectively. 

South Carolina is clearly in a rebuilding year under Frank Martin after last year’s surprise Final Four run.  The Gamecocks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The competition has gotten stiffer, and they have lost four of their last six by 16 to Clemson, by 5 to Ole Miss, by 11 to Missouri and by 14 to Alabama. 

These teams have five common opponents already this season.  Georgia is 3-2 against them and winning by 5.2 points per game, while South Carolina is 1-4 against them and losing by 8.0 points per game.  The Bulldogs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss.  The Gamecocks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 SEC games.  South Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a a winning record.  The Gamecocks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Take Georgia Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Georgetown +12.5 

The Georgetown Hoyas just aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers in their first season under Patrick Ewing.  But boy is he doing a fine job with them this season.  They are off to a 12-4 start with only one of their four losses coming by double-digits. 

Seton Hall is a very good team at 14-3 this season, but the Pirates have been fortunate in close games this year.  Each of their last four wins have come by 12 points or less against Manhattan, Creighton, St. John’s and Butler despite playing three of those four at home. 

Georgetown has gone 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in all road games this season.  It has road wins over Richmond, DePaul and St. John’s with upsets as underdogs in the latter two.  Its only road loss came by a final of 65-74 at Marquette, the same Marquette team that Seton Hall just lost 64-84 to last time out. 

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years.  Each of the last five meetings have been decided by 8 points or less.  The Hoyas are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Georgetown Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -12 

The Kansas State Wildcats just recently lost their floor general in PG Kamau Stokes to an injury.  Stokes averages 13.4 points and 4.6 assists per game.  They were able to overcome his loss to beat Oklahoma State 86-82 at home in their first game without him.  Beating Kansas on the road will be a monumental challenge without him. 

I think this is one of the rare times you will get Kansas at a cheap price.  That’s because the Jayhawks have actually lost at home twice already this season, which is unheard of in the Bill Self era.  But the Jayhawks are playing well, going 6-1 in their last seven games and 4-2 ATS in their last six games. 

Kansas is 19-1 SU & 12-8 ATS in its last 20 home meetings with Kansas State.  It still has arguably the best home-court advantage in the country.  And I don’t expect the Wildcats to handle the environment very well, especially now that they are without their starting point guard. 

Kansas State is 0-7 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Kansas State is 11-29-2 ATS in the last 42 meetings, including 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 trips to Kansas.  Roll with Kansas Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +9 

The Minnesota Timberwolves have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  This run has them overvalued now.  And the Timberwolves are clearly primed for a letdown after back-to-back huge home wins over the Cavaliers and Thunder. 

Plays against favorites (Minnesota) after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team winning 60% to 75% or more of their games on the season are 38-12 (76%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Conversely, the Knicks are undervalued after going just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  But six of those eight losses came by 9 points or fewer, so they have been competitive.  And seven of those 10 games were on the road.  It has been a tough stretch, but the Knicks should be rejuvenated now as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days. 

The Knicks have owned the Timberwolves over the past two seasons, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS despite being the underdog in three of those four meetings.  They just have the winning formula against the Timberwolves, and I think they will be the more motivated team in this matchup. 

The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one day of rest.  The Timberwolves are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The underdog is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  New York is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to Minnesota.  Take the Knicks Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers +2.5 

I’m not sure how the Cleveland Cavaliers can actually be favored tonight against the Indiana Pacers with how poorly they are playing.  After all, the Cavaliers are 6-25-1 ATS as favorites this season, so they have been money burners all year. 

And now the Cavs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after yet another ugly 99-133 loss in Toronto last night against a Raptors team that was playing without two starters in Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka.  That followed up a 99-127 loss at Minnesota the game before.  The Cavs are now just 2-6 SU in their last eight games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 contests.  And now they’ll be without Isaiah Thomas, who is resting in this one. 

The Pacers haven’t won a game when Victor Oladipo has sat out.  But he returned from injury three games ago and the Pacers have gone 2-1 since.  They beat the Bulls 125-86 and the Bucks 109-96 while losing to the red-hot Miami Heat 106-114.  But they shot just 1-of-18 from 3-point range against the Heat, yet were still tied with a few minutes to go.  They won’t shoot that poorly again, especially not against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 129 points per game in their last three contests. 

Indiana is 9-1 ATS after having lost six or seven of its last eight games over the past two seasons.  It is winning by 7.8 points per game on average in this spot.  The Cavs are 1-9 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road gams.  The Pacers have won each of their first two meetings this season with the Cavs outright as underdogs.  Indiana is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Pacers Friday. 

15* Marquette/Butler Big East No-Brainer on Butler -4.5 

Off three consecutive losses, it’s safe to say the Butler Bulldogs are going to be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Marquette Golden Eagles.  I expect a big effort from them to get the win and cover here and to get back on track. 

It’s easy to see why Butler has lost three in a row.  They were underdogs on the road to both Xavier and Creighton, and they only lost by 3 at home to Seton Hall after blowing a double-digit lead.  The game before this skid, they beat Villanova 101-93 at home.  The Bulldogs are now 9-1 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the country. 

Butler has really had Marquette’s number in recent meetings.  The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Butler is 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall.  Marquette has played a much softer schedule than Butler and will be taking a big step up in class here tonight. 

Butler is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Butler.  Roll with Butler Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings +1.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a very difficult spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  And they are clearly in a letdown spot after beating the Warriors on the road last night.  Well, the Warriors sat both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, so it comes with an asterisk. 

The Clippers won’t be nearly as excited to face the Kings, who will be highly motivated for a victory after dropping five of their last six games overall.  But in their last two home games they beat Denver 106-98 as 8.5-point dogs and led San Antonio nearly the entire way until the closing minutes, losing 100-107 as 5-point dogs. 

While the Kings are relatively healthy, the Clippers have all kinds of injury issues that will make this back-to-back that much more difficult.  They have been without Blake Griffin, who remains questionable with a concussion.  Austin Rivers, Danilo Gallinari and Patrick Beverly are all out.  C.J. Williams is doubtful, while Milos Teodosic is questionable. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - off a loss to a division rival, in January games are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Clippers) - off two or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 74-39 (65.5%) ATS over the last five years.  Bet the Kings Thursday. 

15* Cavs/Raptors TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 222 

The Toronto Raptors are going to be without two of their best offensive weapons in point guard Kyle Lowry and power forward Serge Ibaka tonight.  They are going to have to muck it up and make this an ugly game if they want any chance to beat the Cavaliers tonight, which is why I think there’s value with the UNDER. 

The Cavaliers are frustrated right now, losing five of their last seven games overall coming in.  It can mostly be attributed to poor defense, but their offense has also been struggling.  They have been held to 101 or fewer points in all five of those losses.  I look for them to put a renewed effort defensively tonight after losing 99-127 to the Timberwolves on Monday.  They have had two days off since to fix their defense. 

These teams are very familiar with one another after squaring off in the playoffs each of the past two seasons.  I think that familiarity will make points harder to come by.  In fact, 14 of the last 17 meetings in this series have seen less than 222 points, which is what this total has been set at tonight. 

Cleveland is 10-2 UNDER off a non-conference game this season.  Toronto is 11-3 UNDER vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 36% or better this season.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers’ last eight vs. NBA Atlantic opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Raptors last six home games.  The UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings in Toronto.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -4.5 

Chris Holtmann has this Ohio State Buckeyes team on the rise in his first season.  He did big things at Butler and now he has carried over that success to Columbus.  The Buckeyes are 13-4 on the season, including 10-1 at home and winning by 16.8 points per game. 

Ohio State has gone 8-1 in its last nine games overall with its only loss coming to UNC on a neutral court. They beat Wisconsin by 25 on the road, Michigan by 9 at home, Iowa by 11 on the road and Michigan State by 16 at home during this stretch.  And you can bet Ohio State will be out for revenge following four straight losses to Maryland over the past two seasons. 

That’s the same Michigan State team that Maryland just lost by 30 to on the road a week ago today.  This Maryland team isn’t as good as the ones in recent years that made the NCAA Tournament.  The Terrapins are just 1-2 in true road games this season with their only win coming 92-91 against an Illinois team that remains winless in Big Ten play. 

Ohio State is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 home games off three straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers.  The Buckeyes are 11-2 ATS in home games when playing against a good team winning 60% to 80% of their games over the last three seasons.  Ohio State is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. teams who are called for 3-plus fouls per game less than their opponents over the last three years.  Roll with Ohio State Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Grizzlies UNDER 213 

Just looking at the recent head-to-head history in this series it’s easy to see that there is value with the UNDER tonight.  Plus the fact that the Pelicans are going to be without their best player in Anthony Davis makes me like the UNDER even more. 

The Pelicans and Grizzlies have combined for 205 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight straight meetings, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 213-point total.  They have averaged just 190.4 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 23 points less than this total.  The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Memphis. 

Memphis is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus good 3-point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts this season.  New Orleans is 14-4 UNDER in road games vs. division opponents over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 8-1 UNDER vs. division opponents this season.  The Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS after covering four of their last five games against the spread over the last two seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are going to be without their best player in Anthony Davis tonight.  They haven’t been playing well of late anyways, going 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have upset home losses to Dallas and New York during this stretch, and an 18-point road loss at Minnesota. 

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to play much better here of late.  They are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite playing four of their last five games on the road, and their lone home game was a 2-point loss to Washington as 4.5-point dogs. 

The Grizzlies have owned the Pelicans, going 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent off a loss by 6 points or less are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville +2.5 

The Evansville Purple Aces have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They are 9-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.3 points per game.  They are coming off a dominant 68-44 home win over Bradley as only 1-point favorites. 

Missouri State is a quality team this season, but it should not be favored on the road here.  The Bears have lost two of their last three road games despite being favorites in each.  They lost 66-73 as 12.5-point favorites at Oral Roberts, and 68-72 as 4-point road favorites at Illinois State. 

Evansville has owned Missouri State in recent meetings, going 6-1 straight up in the last seven meetings.  The Purple Aces are 4-0 in their last four home meetings with the Bears, winning by 8, 10, 19 and 7 points, respectively. 

The Purple Aces are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Evansville is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games.  The Purple Aces are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Evansville is 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Missouri State is 9-18 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Take Evansville Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -5 

The Pacers had lost five in a row before the return of Victor Oladipo.  He returned Saturday and sparked the Pacers’ 39-point win.  The Pacers then led the entire way in an impressive 109-96 home victory over the Milwaukee Bucks. 

The Heat are overvalued right now due to winning five straight games.  But now they’re in a tough spot as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 90-89 victory in Toronto against a Raptors team that was playing without Kyle Lowry last night.   

And now the Heat will likely be without one of their best players in James Johnson, who is expected to be suspended.  They were already missing Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow, and Tyler Johnson is questionable with a shoulder injuries.  That makes this back-to-back set even more difficult for them. 

Indiana is 10-0 straight up in its last 10 home meetings with Miami.  The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Indiana.  The Pacers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Miami is 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech -1 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are way overvalued right now due to their 5-game winning streak.  They were able to survive their first few games without Bonzie Colson, and even their last game against Syracuse without Matt Farrell.  But with their two best players out, this team is going to struggle moving forward, especially tonight. 

Colson (21.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) and Farrell (15.9 ppg, 5.1 apg) are simply irreplaceable on this team.  Colson has missed the past two games while Farrell missed one.  Both will be out tonight and really hamper Notre Dame’s chances of being successful.  In their first game without both, they managed just 51 points against Syracuse. 

Georgia Tech is really coming on strong of late.  The Yellow Jackets are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  The loss was a 59-68 setback at Notre Dame as 14-point dogs, which places the Yellow Jackets in revenge mode.  They also upset Miami 64-54 as 5-point home dogs and easily covered as 9-point favorites in a 74-60 home win over Yale. 

Georgia Tech is 14-3 ATS in January games over the last three seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after committing 11 or fewer turnovers in three straight games.  Georgia Tech is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games.  The Yellow Jackets are 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Bet Georgia Tech Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +10.5

The Auburn Tigers are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back wins over ranked teams in Tennessee and Arkansas for the first time since 2007.  They have now jumped into the Top 25 for the first time in 15 years.  It’s safe to say they will relax after accomplishing that feat. 

Ole Miss will give them a run for their money tonight.  The Rebels have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games with their only loss coming on the road at Georgia.  They have beaten both South Carolina and Mississippi State during this run, while winning their other two games by 23 and 22 points. 

Ole Miss simply owns Auburn, going a perfect 10-0 SU & 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Rebels are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  They won both meetings last season and have four starters back from that squad under Andy Kennedy this season. 

Ole Miss is 10-1 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last two seasons.  Auburn is 0-6 ATS after scoring three of its last four against the spread over the past three seasons.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six SEC games.  Roll with Ole Miss Tuesday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska -1.5 

Nebraska continues to get no love from oddsmakers this season.  The Huskers have opened 11-6 this year, and head coach Tim Miles is doing a tremendous job.  Their recent results have me believing they should be favored by more than 1.5 points at home against Wisconsin tonight. 

The Huskers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They beat Minnesota 78-68 as 9-point home dogs, only lost by 10 at Creighton as 12-point dogs, only lost by 1 at home to Kansas as 12-point dogs, beat UTSA by 10 as 9.5-point favorites, won outright at Northwestern by 15 as 7.5-point dogs, and gave Purdue a run in a 12-point road loss as 21-point dogs. 

Wisconsin has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season.  The Badgers are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in all road games this season.  They are just 9-8 on the year as this is one of the worst Wisconsin teams in recent memory.  They have lost their last two true road games to Temple and Rutgers. 

Nebraska is 45-21 ATS in its last 66 home games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Huskers are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 home games as a favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Nebraska is 7-0 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Huskers are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Take Nebraska Tuesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Raptors UNDER 207.5 

The Toronto Raptors just played a grueling 114-113 (OT) game in Brooklyn last night.  Kyle Lowry fell hard and hurt his tailbone, forcing him to leave the game.  It’s likely that he won’t be available tonight in this back-to-back set against the Heat, which would significantly hamper Toronto’s offense. 

The Heat prefer to play at a slow tempo.  They rank 27th in the NBA in pace at 96.8 possessions per game.  Miami is one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, especially when Hassan Whiteside is healthy, which he hasn’t been for much of the season until recently.  And the Heat are just 22nd in offensive efficiency. 

But the heat-to-head history here is the reason this is such a good bet.  In fact, each of the last 11 meetings between Toronto and Miami have seen 205 combined points or less.  And two of those games even went to overtime.  They have averaged just 190.3 combined points per game in those 11 meetings, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight’s posted total of 207.5.  We’ll take this 11-0 system straight to the bank tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

20* Alabama/Georgia National Championship No-Brainer on Alabama -175 

I backed Alabama -1.5 as my 25* College Bowl Game of the Year in a 24-6 win over Clemson in the first round of the college football playoffs.  I’m not about to buck them now as they still fit many of the same reasons I backed them against Clemson. 

I thought Alabama came into the four-team playoff grossly underrated for the first time ever.  It’s because they were the No. 4 seed and barely got in after not winning the SEC Championship thanks to their loss to Auburn in the regular season finale.  They actually came in as an underdog by perception because they were the No. 4 seed going against the No. 1 seed Clemson. 

Let’s just think back to the National Championship last year.  If Alabama hadn’t gave up a touchdown on the final play of the game to lose to Clemson, they would be going for their 3rd straight national title.  And if that was the case, which it easily could be, Alabama would be upwards of a 7-point favorite or more here against Georgia.  Instead they are only 3.5-point favorites and -175 on the money line, which I think is the better bet in this matchup in case they do win by 3.  But I’m confident they will win this game. 

Alabama has the best defense in the country, and that showed in limiting Clemson to just 6 points and 188 total yards last week.  They match up very well with Georgia, a predominant running team that only averages 173 passing yards per game.  The Crimson Tide only give up 92 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry, with the latter being the best mark in the entire country.  The only teams the Crimson Tide struggle against are ones with mobile quarterbacks, and Jake Fromm doesn’t fit that category.  He has rushed for just 94 yards on the season and 2.0 per carry. 

I think the situation is better for Alabama having more time to get ready for this game.  They played in New Orleans, made easy work of Clemson, and have a short trip up to Atlanta for the National Championship.  Meanwhile, Georgia played all the way out in California and as a result will have the tougher travel schedule.  They also needed to exert more effort as they went to double-overtime in a 54-48 thriller.  And I think the Bulldogs are just happy to be here, while Alabama is on a mission to make up for that devastating loss in the national title game last season. 

Alabama has been favored in 112 of its 113 games.  The only time it wasn’t a favorite was as a 1.5-point underdog at Georgia in 2015.  Well, the Crimson Tide rolled the Bulldogs 38-10 in that game.  Rarely ever do we get to back them as small as -175 money line favorites.  This is basically free money in my opinion because they aren’t going to lose this game. 

My favorite trend in this game is that Nick Saban is 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS when facing his former assistants.  This is a big brother, little brother phenomenon.  Saban has won by 14-plus points in all 11 games and by an average of a whopping 29 points per game in this spot.  Kirby Smart will be overmatched in this matchup. 

Saban has also had great success in games that are expected to be low scoring, which this game is considering the total is only 45 points.  Alabama is 45-19 ATS in its last 64 games with a total set of 50 points or less under Saban.  This goes back to the point I made before that the only teams that give the Crimson Tide trouble are teams with dual-threat quarterbacks when shootouts are the expectation.  This game will be a grind-it-out, hard-hitting game that plays right into Alabama’s hands.  Saban and company live for these kinds of games. 

Saban is 21-11 ATS vs. good defensive teams that give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Alabama.  His teams are winning these matchups by 15.1 points per game on average.  The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  I think we are getting a nice discount here with the Crimson Tide on the money line because a very large amount of people who are betting Georgia are betting them on the money line.  Bet Alabama on the Money Line.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5 

I love the situation tonight for the Indiana Pacers.  They just lost to the Bucks 101-122 on the road on Wednesday, January 3rd.  Now they get their chance at revenge less than a week later, and this time around they will have their best player in Victor Oladipo. 

After losing five consecutive games and remaining winless when Oladipo sits, they got a big boost with his return on Saturday.  Oladipo went 9-of-11 shooting for 23 points and delivered nine assists with five steals in a 125-86 rout of the Chicago Bulls.   

Now the Pacers will be fresh as this is just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Bucks will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.  And the Pacers have owned the Bucks at home, going 34-12 straight up in their last 46 meetings. 

Plays on favorites (Indiana) - revenging a loss vs. opponent by 10 points or more against an opponent that’s off a road win are 106-60 (63.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  The Bucks are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Pacers Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting healthy and will be a dangerous team moving forward.  They have had a rough season injury-wise thus far, yet they’re still 20-18 on the year.  Look for this team to make a push into the All-Star Break after going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall. 

The Spurs have lost two of their last four to the Piston and 76ers with their two wins coming against the Knicks and Suns.  Unlike Portland, San Antonio is really banged up right now.  The Spurs are expected to be without Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Danny Green and Rudy Gay tonight. 

The Spurs are just 9-11 SU & 7-12-1 ATS on the road this season.  Plays on home favorites (Portland) after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in Sunday games are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  Portland is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a straight up win by more than 10 points.  Take the Blazers Sunday. 

15* FSU/Miami ACC Sunday No-Brainer on Miami -2.5 

The Florida State Seminoles are in a really tough spot here.  They have opened ACC play having to play both Duke on the road and North Carolina at home.  Off a 1-point win over the Tar Heels, the Seminoles won’t have much left in the tank for the Hurricanes tonight. 

Miami comes in highly motivated off an upset road loss at Georgia Tech last time out.  The Hurricanes are still 12-2 on the season and have played nine road games and only five at home.  Miami is 5-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 26.6 points per game. 

Florida State is 2-9 ATS in road games off two consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.  Miami is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games versus teams who score 84 or more points per game.  The Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  Roll with Miami Sunday. 

20* Bills/Jaguars NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo +9 

Both the Bills and Jaguars were Cinderella stories this season.  The Jaguars won their first-ever AFC South title, will be going to the playoffs for the first time since 2007, and will hosting their first playoff game since 1999.  The Bills were able to snap the longest playoff drought in the NFL, getting back to the postseason for the first time since 1999. 

The books have simply set this number too high.  The Jaguars cannot be laying more than a touchdown to the Bills in this matchup.  The Jaguars may be 3 to 4 points better on a neutral field, so this line should be closer to 6 or 7.  I think we’re getting a ton of value with the Bills +9 here folks. 

A lot will be made of the Bills’ point differential leading into this game.  It’s the fifth-worst point differential of any team to ever make the playoffs at -57.  But keep in mind that Nate Peterman was responsible for a lot of that in a 24-54 loss to the Chargers.  And also, the four teams will worse point differentials in playoff history all won their first playoff game. 

Another thing you’ll hear is that the Jaguars lead the NFL in sacks.  Well, now they’ll be up against a mobile quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, who has been one of the most underrated signal callers in the NFL over the past few seasons.  Taylor led the Bills to three wins in the final four games just to get into the playoffs.  Taylor has completed 62.6% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions, while also rushing for 427 yards and four scores on 5.1 per carry. 

I think the Jaguars made a big mistake not resting their starters in Week 17 against the Titans.  They were already locked into the No. 3 seed and had nothing to play for.  Doug Marrone and his old-school mentality that may have been influenced by Tom Coughlin was clearly not happy with the 33-44 loss at San Francisco the week before.  But the Jaguars were even worse against the Titans in a 10-15 loss, managing just 227 total yards while turning it over four times.  They aren’t playing well coming in, and now they won’t be fresh, either. 

The Bills have really stepped it up defensively here down the stretch.  They have given up 16 or fewer points in four of their last six games overall.  The only exceptions were the 23 and the 37 allowed to the Patriots in their two meetings with them, which is no shame.  Their defense is good enough to contain Blake Bortles and this weak Jacksonville offense.  That’s another reason the Jaguars can’t be this big of a favorite because Bortles is still their quarterback. 

The strength of the Bills offensively is their running game.  They have rushed for at least 104 yards in six of their last seven games and rank 6th in the NFL in rushing at 126.1 yards per game.  LeSean McCoy is a fast healer and should be ready to go as he returned to practice late in the week.  And the weakness of the Jaguars’ defense is against the run.  They rank 21st in rushing defense at 116.2 yards per game and 4.3 per carry allowed.  The Jaguars have allowed at least 108 rushing yards in five of their last six games overall. 

A big reason for the Jaguars’ success this season is their weak schedule.  They actually played the easiest (32nd) schedule in the entire NFL.  The Bills played the 16th-toughest schedule.  According to Jeff Sagarin’s strength of schedule rankings, the team that played the tougher schedule in the regular season is 41-19 SU & 41-18-1 ATS since the inception of the Wild Card.  Underdogs that played the harder schedule are 21-9 ATS.  When the difference is 10 or more, the team that played the tougher schedule is 24-5 SU & 23-5-1 ATS.  Take the Bills Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans +2 

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a brutal spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are a tired team right now, and it has shown with back-to-back road losses at Brooklyn and at Boston. 

After facing Boston last night, it will be a long flight back to Minnesota.  And compounding matters is the fact that they have to face a rested Pelicans team that has had two days off coming in, and one that will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days. 

They will also be facing a motivated Pelicans team that has already lost twice at home to the Timberwolves this season.  So they’ll want some revenge here, and they should get it given their massive rest advantage. 

Plays on underdogs (New Orleans) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent, off an upset win as a road underdog are 98-54 (64.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Timberwolves are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Saturday. 

15* Falcons/Rams NFC Saturday No-Brainer on Atlanta +6.5 

The Atlanta Falcons are going to be highly motivated to make a deep run in the playoffs after what happened to them in the Super Bowl last year, blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots.  They have held it together pretty well this season and have avoided that dreaded Super Bowl hangover. 

I like the fact that the Falcons have been in must-win mode here down the stretch, which is basically playoff mode, so they are battle-tested and ready to go.  The Falcons have gone 3-1 down the stretch while outgaining all four opponents, their only loss coming on the road at New Orleans. 

Last week they needed a win to get in the playoffs, and boy did they deliver.  They beat the Panthers 22-10 at home and outgained them by 123 total yards.  Matt Ryan threw for 317 yards and a touchdown without an interception to lead the way.  The defense came through with arguably their best performance of the season, limiting Cam Newton to 14-of-34 passing for 180 yards and forcing three interceptions.  The Panthers managed just 248 total yards in the game. 

The Rams were smart to rest many of their starters against the 49ers last week.  And I have been high on this team all season, but they weren’t in playoff mode in Week 17, and I don’t trust their inexperience in this pressure-packed situation.  Mostly everyone on the roster has little-to-no playoff experience, including QB Jared Goff.  I certainly trust Ryan more in this situation than Goff.  And we’re getting 6.5 points with the Falcons to boot. 

The Falcons actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential.  Only the Saints, Jaguars and Vikings have been better in this department.  That’s even more impressive when you consider the Falcons faced the 4th-toughest schedule in the entire NFL this season.  This team isn’t as broken as the media leads you on to believe. 

While the Falcons played the 4th-toughest schedule, the Rams played the 17th-hardest.  That’s important when we look at a wild card system that is tried and true.  Since the inception of the wild card, teams that played the tougher schedule according to Jeff Sagarin’s rankings are 41-19 SU & 41-18-1 ATS.  Underdogs with the tougher schedule are 21-9 ATS.  When the difference is 10 or more, like it is here (4th & 17th), the team that played the harder schedule is 24-5 SU & 23-5-1 ATS. 

Atlanta is 6-0 ATS against NFC West opponents over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining less than 90 rushing yards in its previous game.  The Rams are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Roll with the Falcons Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Marquette +16 

This line is inflated because Villanova is off a loss, and the betting public is quick to back them off that loss.  But I think the Wildcats have a lot of issues right now, especially inside, that will have them overvalued in Big East play all season. 

Marquette is too good of a team to be catching 16 points to Villanova.  They are 11-4 this season with their four losses coming to Purdue, Wichita State, Georgia and Xavier.  Not one of those losses came by 16-plus points. 

Marquette hasn’t lost any of its last four meetings with Villanova by more than 15 points.  In fact, the Golden Eagles upset the Wildcats 74-72 at home last year.  The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Bet Marquette Saturday. 

20* Chiefs/Titans NFL Wild Card Opener on UNDER 44.5 

The Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans will play in a defensive battle to open the playoffs Saturday afternoon.  It will be cold in Kansas City on Saturday with a high of 31 degrees and wins from 10 to 15 miles per hour, so the weather will aid this UNDER as well. 

The Chiefs give up some plays between the 20’s, but they buckle down in the red zone, especially at home.  Kansas City is only allowing 16.9 points per game at home this season.  In fact, the Chiefs haven’t allowed more than 20 points at home all year!  They’ve given up 13, 13, 15 and 16 points in their last four home games, respectively. 

The Titans have been held to 23 or fewer points in six of their last seven road games.  They are scoring just 14.7 points per game in their last seven road games.  Their offense has been terrible all season as Marcus Mariota is extremely overrated.  And they no longer have the dangerous 1-2 punch in the backfield as DeMarco Murray has missed time down the stretch and won’t play in this game.  Making matters worse is that no receivers are getting separation for Mariota. 

The Chiefs got off to a tremendous start to the season offensively, but things have cooled off significantly for them on that side of the ball down the stretch.  They are averaging 22.7 points per game in their last seven games overall.  Based on these averages with the Chiefs’ offense down the stretch and the Titans on the road, we’re looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of a 23-15 game, which would be well below the 44.5-point total. 

Tennessee has been playing some very good defense here down the stretch.  They Titans have allowed 22 or fewer points in nine of their last 12 games.  They have allowed 16 points or fewer in four of their final six games.  They are giving up just 19.2 points per game in their last 12 games overall.  They are fully capable of keeping this Kansas City offense in check Saturday. 

The UNDER is 44-19 in Chiefs last 63 home games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Chiefs last five playoff home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Chiefs last six home games with a total between 42.5 and 45 points.  Kansas City is 9-1 UNDER in home games when playing with 6 or fewer days’ rest over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Titans last four playoff games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.