|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-24-12||Los Angeles Angels -115 v. Seattle Mariners||Top||3-0||Win||100||11 h 28 m||Show|
20* Angels/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -115
The Los Angeles Angels are showing great value as a small road favorite over the Seattle Mariners tonight. After taking two out of three from the Texas Rangers in their last series, the Mariners are in for a huge letdown spot in Game 1 of this series.
I know Dan Haren has posted worse numbers than Jason Vargas this season, but I have no doubt that Haren is the better starter in this match-up. The reason the Angels are only a small favorite tonight is because Haren is off to a slow start.
Haren has owned the Mariners, going 10-5 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in 19 career starts against Seattle. He has given up 3 earned runs or less in eight consecutive starts against the Mariners, so he always gives his team a chance to win. All six of those were quality starts as he went at least 6 innings in each.
The Mariners are 12-32 in their last 44 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Seattle is 22-50 in their last 72 Thursday games. The Mariners are 8-20 in Vargas' last 28 starts with 4 days of rest. The Angels are 36-16 in the last 52 meetings. The Mariners are 1-4 in Vargas' last 5 starts vs. Angels. Bet the Angels Thursday.
|05-24-12||Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 182||Top||105-93||Loss||-110||9 h 14 m||Show|
15* Heat/Pacers Game 6 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 182
With what's at stake in Game 6 tonight, I look for a defensive battle between the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat. After giving up 115 points to the Heat in a Game 5 loss, the Pacers were called "soft" by Larry Bird.
I look for the Pacers to respond in a big way by buckling down defensively, while also trying to feed the ball inside for buckets around the rim. Look for Indiana to slow down the pace playing at home as they know they cannot run with the Heat.
Miami is going to be without Udonis Haslem, who after Chris Bosh went out with an injury, became their biggest big man threat to score the basketball. Joel Anthony and Ronny Turiaf aren't going to be able to give the Heat anything offensively, leaving the burden on James and Wade.
The Heat are 18-5 to the UNDER after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 24-6 in Heat last 30 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Heat last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday.
|05-24-12||Atlanta Braves +110 v. Cincinnati Reds||3-6||Loss||-100||8 h 28 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Braves +110
The Atlanta Braves are showing solid value as an underdog to the Cincinnati Reds tonight. There's no question which team will be more motivated heading into this one as the Braves are looking to avoid a 4-game sweep after losing the first three games of this series.
Look for the Reds to relax, while the Braves push hard to try and avoid the embarrassment of getting swept. Atlanta sends underrated starter Randall Delgado to the mound tonight as he looks to continue his recent success. Delgado has posted a 2.75 ERA over his last three starts.
Delgado faced Cincinnati at home on May 14th, not allowing a single earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work. Homer Bailey gets the ball for Cincinnati, and he's just 2-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in eight starts this season. Bailey is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.500 WHIP over his last three starts.
The Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Cincinnati is 3-10 in their last 13 during game 4 of a series. Atlanta is 10-2 in their last 12 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Braves are 7-2 in their last 9 games following a loss. Roll with Atlanta Thursday.
|05-23-12||Boston Celtics +1.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers||Top||75-82||Loss||-104||9 h 49 m||Show|
20* Celtics/76ers Game 6 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Boston +1.5
In a potential elimination game tonight, these young Philadelphia 76ers aren't going to be able to handle the pressure. I fully expect these veteran Boston Celtics to rise to the occasion and put an end to this series tonight. They will be in a better state of mind heading into this one.
"It's not really doom and gloom," Andre Iguodala said. "You get in a situation like this, you get thoughts creeping in your mind it could be over in a day or two. Our guys are talking about tomorrow and what we've got to do to try and win that game."
The comments from many of the 76ers young players, and coach Doug Collins, lead me to believe that they are putting way too much into this game. Obviously, it's win or go home, but Sixers guard Jrue Holiday says he looks at Game 6 as, "kind of like the end of the world." They are basically over-hyping themselves heading into this one, which doesn't usually work.
The Celtics are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Boston is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. The 76ers are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Philly is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Wednesday.
|05-23-12||Atlanta Braves -109 v. Cincinnati Reds||1-2||Loss||-109||8 h 3 m||Show|
15* NL Wednesday Mound Mismatch on Atlanta Braves -109
After losing the first two games of this series, it's safe to say that the Atlanta Braves are highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight. Atlanta has the better starter on the mound in Tommy Hanson over Bronson Arroyo, making this selection a no-brainer.
Hanson is 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA through nine starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA in six starts away from home. He has 46 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings on the season. He is red hot of late, going 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts while allowing just 5 earned runs in 18 innings.
Arroyo has been a below-average starter in this league for years. He is 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA through eight starts thus far in 2012, but he's coming off a 2011 campaign in which he went 9-12 with a 5.07 ERA. Arroyo is 0-1 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.881 WHIP in four home starts this season, and he has posted a 5.71 ERA and 1.705 WHIP in 14 career starts against Atlanta.
The Braves are 7-0 in road games with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss. The Reds are 0-6 in Arroyos last 6 starts as a home underdog. These three trends make for a 20-1 (95%) system backing Atlanta. Take the Braves Wednesday.
|05-23-12||Detroit: D Fister -108 v. Cleveland: Mcallister||2-4||Loss||-108||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -108
After losing the first game of this series and four of their last six overall to drop to 20-22 on the season, it's safe to say the underachieving Detroit Tigers are motivated for a win here tonight. I am backing them at a great price knowing that this team is better than Cleveland despite their records.
The biggest reason I'm backing the Tigers tonight is Doug Fister, who remains one of the most underrated starters in the league. Fister has posted a 1.59 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in four starts this season, yet he doesn't have a win due to poor run support. His teammates will be hungry to get him his first "W" of the season tonight.
The Indians will give the ball to Zach McAllister (1-1, 4.34), who is 0-1 with a 4.97 ERA in two starts since being recalled from Triple-A Columbus to replaced the injured Josh Tomlin (wrist) in the rotation. McAllister labored through 100 pitches in 5 2/3 innings of his latest outing Thursday, yielding four runs against lowly Seattle.
Fister is 3-2 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.908 WHIP in eight career starts against Cleveland. He is 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA in his last three starts against Cleveland while striking out 29 batters in 23 innings.
The Tigers are 10-3 in Fister's last 13 starts. Detroit is 38-15 in their last 53 games following a loss. The Tigers are 5-0 in Fister's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. Detroit is 7-1 in Fister's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 meetings with the Indians. Roll with Detroit Wednesday.
|05-22-12||Indiana Pacers +6.5 v. Miami Heat||83-115||Loss||-104||9 h 31 m||Show|
15* Pacers/Heat TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Indiana +6.5
Despite losing Game 4 at home to the Miami Heat, the Indiana Pacers are still in better position in this series. That's because they are fully healthy, while the Heat remain without Chris Bosh.
Lebron James and Dwyane Wade came up huge in Game 4, combining for 70 of the team's 101 points in a 101-93 victory. You can bet the Pacers are going to have a game plan to make sure that James and Wade don't beat them again, forcing other unproven players to take and make big shots.
Indiana has outscored Miami by 5 points in this series. The Pacers should not be the underdog in Game 5 given the Heat's health situation. The betting public is going to flock to the Heat after their Game 4 performance, but I'm going the other way with this one and backing the better team.
The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. Indiana is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. This is a combined 20-1 (95%) system backing Indiana tonight. Take the Pacers Tuesday.
|05-22-12||Kansas City Royals v. New York Yankees OVER 9||Top||2-3||Loss||-100||8 h 47 m||Show|
20* MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Royals/Yankees OVER 9
The Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees are likely to take part in a slug fest tonight. Two below-average starting pitchers get the ball against two potent line-ups in this American League battle.
Luke Hochevar is 3-4 with a 7.03 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in eight starts this season for Kansas City. Phil Hughes is 3-5 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in eight starts this season for New York.
Hochevar is 0-2 with a 10.68 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in three career starts against the Yankees. Hughes is 3-1 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in five career starts against the Royals. The OVER is 4-1 in those five contests.
Hochevar is 12-2 to the OVER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. Hughes is 15-5 to the OVER at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 23-7-2 in Hochevar's last 32 starts as a road underdog. The OVER is 10-2 in Yankees last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The OVER is 18-6-2 in Hughes' last 26 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|05-22-12||Detroit Tigers +107 v. Cleveland Indians||3-5||Loss||-100||8 h 46 m||Show|
15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +107
The Detroit Tigers should not be an underdog to the Cleveland Indians tonight. Cleveland is getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 23-18 start, while the Tigers are undervalued right now due to their sub-par 20-21 record.
There's no question that the Tigers are the more talented team, and it's only a matter of time before they overtake the Indians. Plus they have the better starter going tonight in Rick Porcello, who has posted a 3.55 ERA on the road this season.
Ubaldo Jimenez has lost about 4-5 MPH on his fastball since his career year in 2010. The fact of the matter is that the Indians made a bad trade when they dealt for him last year. Jimenez is 4-3 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in eight starts this season with just 28 strikeouts in 46 innings. He has more walks (32) than K's.
Porcello is 5-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in 12 career starts against Cleveland, and his teams are 9-3 in those contests. Jimenez is 2-5 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in seven career starts against Detroit. He went 0-3 with a 9.98 ERA in his final three 2011 starts against the Tigers.
Detroit is 54-24 in their last 78 vs. Americal League Central opponents. The Tigers are 20-6 in Porcello's last 26 starts vs. division foes. Detroit is 10-1 in their last 11 meetings with the Indians, including 4-0 in their last 4 meetings in Cleveland. Roll with the Tigers Tuesday.
|05-21-12||San Francisco Giants -103 v. Milwaukee Brewers||4-3||Win||100||9 h 19 m||Show|
15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -103
With such a huge advantage on the mound tonight, the San Francisco Giants get the nod Monday at a great price. Madison Bumgarner remains one of the most underrated starters in the league, and Randy Wolf and the Brewers are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers at home tonight.
Bumgarner is 5-3 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.108 WHIP through eight starts this season. Wolf is 2-4 wiht a 6.38 ERA and 1.795 WHIP through eight starts for Milwaukee. Bumgarner is 3-1 with a 1.27 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in four career starts against the Brewers.
Milwaukee is 0-6 against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more this season. The Giants are 8-1 in Bumgarner's last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record. San Francisco is 33-16 in their last 49 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Brewers are 0-4 in Wolf's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Giants Monday.
|05-21-12||Chicago (N): M Garza +101 v. Houston: B Norris||4-8||Loss||-100||9 h 4 m||Show|
15* NL Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +101
The Chicago Cubs clearly have the better starter on the mound in Matt Garza over Bud Norris. After six consecutive losses, including a sweep at the hands of the Chicago White Sox over the weekend, the Cubs won't be lacking any motivation tonight.
They'll put an end to this losing streak behind Garza, who is 2-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander is is 1-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 1.018 WHIP over his last three starts. Garza has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in four career starts against Houston.
Garza is 13-1 against the money line vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Cubs are 9-4 in Garza's last 13 starts, and 7-1 in his last 8 starts vs. NL Central opponents. The Astros are 41-88 in their last 129 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Cubs Monday.
|05-21-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics -5.5||Top||85-101||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
20* 76ers/Celtics TNT Monday No-Brainer on Boston -5.5
The Boston Celtics are showing solid value as a small home favorite in Game 5 of this series with the Philadelphia 76ers. Boston knows they did not play well in their first two home games in this series, and they want to come out and make a statement with a blowout home victory tonight with the series tied at 2-2.
Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Celtics blew an 18-point lead in the second half of Game 4. You can bet this team will come out hungry tonight, similarly to when they did in Game 3. After losing Game 2 at home, the Celtics went on the road and stole Game 3 with an emphatic 107-91 victory.
Boston is 9-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Celtics are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. This team plays their best in big games. Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Monday.
|05-20-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 190.5||Top||102-99||Loss||-110||13 h 29 m||Show|
20* Spurs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 190.5
I'm siding with the UNDER in Game 4. These teams combined for 182 points last night in a 96-86 San Antonio victory. I expect another defensive battle in Game 4 with the Clippers playing for their playoff lives.
This play falls into a system that is 56-30 (65.1%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (LA CLIPPERS) - poor free throw shooting team - making <=71% of their free throws, on Sunday games.
The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Spurs last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Spurs last 6 games following a ATS win. The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. These four trends make for a perfect 18-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.
|05-20-12||Los Angeles Angels -120 v. San Diego Padres||2-3||Loss||-120||7 h 58 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -120
The Los Angeles Angels are showing great value Sunday. The Angels are 34-14 (+17.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
San Diego is the worst team in the league. The Padres are 4-14 (-10.1 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season. The Angels are 21-8 in Ervin Santana's last 29 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
The Padres are 0-5 in Anthony Bass' last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Padres are 16-36 in their last 52 games as a home underdog. The Angels are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Angels Sunday.
|05-19-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 189||Top||103-100||Loss||-110||12 h 23 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 189
Playing on back-to-back days after a grueling 99-96 Game 3 victory by the Lakers, I fully expect both Los Angeles and Oklahoma City to be tired for Game 4. That will lead to tough shots and fewer buckets in transition as both teams work their offenses through the half court.
After combining for 152 points in Game 2, these teams combined for 195 points in Game 3. However, they combined to shoot 67-70 (96%) from the free throw line, which is the only reason that game went over the posted total of 191.5. Both teams won't shoot that well from the free throw line again on tired legs tonight.
Oklahoma City is 9-1 to the UNDER after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers have controlled the tempo the last two games, and that will be the case again in Game 4 as this one gets slowed down to a snails pace. Don't expect there to be 70 free throws between these teams again. Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Saturday.
|05-19-12||Boston Red Sox -113 v. Philadelphia Phillies||7-5||Win||100||9 h 18 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -113
The Boston Red Sox are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday. Boston has a huge edge on the mound with Jon Lester over Joe Blanton, and they have the more potent line-up as well.
I understand that Blanton has posted better numbers this season than Lester, but that's simply an aberration when you look at what they've done in their careers. Lester is 78-37 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 162 career starts. Blanton is 77-65 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.337 WHIP in 205 career starts.
Lester has pitched his best away from home this season, posting a 2.65 ERA and 1.088 WHIP in five road starts. He is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in his last three starts, which includes a complete game victory over the Seattle Mariners in his last start in which he allowed just one earned run.
Lester is 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in three career starts against Philadelphia. The Red Sox are 3-0 in those three games, so they have never lost when Lester faces the Phillies. Blanton is 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in 10 career starts against Boston. Roll with the Red Sox Saturday.
|05-19-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 191||96-86||Win||100||5 h 23 m||Show|
15* Spurs/Clippers ABC Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 191
Game 1 saw 200 combined points and Game 2 saw 193 combined points. I look for this trend to continue as the Spurs and Clippers don't combine to score more than 190 points in Game 3.
San Antonio controlled the tempo in the first two games at home, but Los Angeles figures to control the tempo at home this time around. The Spurs like to push the pace, while the Clippers operate best in the half court. This will be a half court game in Los Angeles tonight.
The Clippers are 17-6 to the UNDER in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 11-3 to the UNDER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. The UNDER is 17-3-1 in the last 21 meetings in Los Angeles.
The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Spurs last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games following a S.U. loss. These three trends make for a perfect 13-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.
|05-18-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 191.5||Top||96-99||Loss||-108||11 h 12 m||Show|
25* NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lakers/Thunder UNDER 191.5
After a high-scoring affair in Game 1 with 209 combined points in a 119-90 Thunder victory, these teams came back to score 152 combined points in a 77-75 win for Oklahoma City in Game 2. I look for Game 3 to finish somewhere in between the first two contests, but it will play out closer to the Game 2 result.
Los Angeles returns home where they'll control the tempo tonight at Staples Center. They did a good job of controlling the pace in Game 2. The fact of the matter is it's simply tough to run in the playoffs, and the Thunder won't be able to in Game 3 against a hungry, motivated L.A. defense. This is a must-win game for the Lakers, and they'll be playing like it defensively.
This play falls into a system that is 88-43 (67.2%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (LA LAKERS) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
The Lakers are 14-4 to the UNDER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The UNDER is 13-6 in Thunder last 19 road games. The UNDER is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.
|05-18-12||Los Angeles Angels -1.5 v. SD PADRES||7-2||Win||101||10 h 30 m||Show|
15* Angels/Padres MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5 (+101)
With ace Jered Weaver on the mound Friday, I like the Los Angeles Angels' chances of beating the lowly San Diego Padres by multiple runs. San Diego starter Jeff Suppan is washed up and overmatched in this one.
Weaver has been tremendous this season, going 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 0.944 WHIP through eight starts. He has 49 strikeouts in 54 innings and he has already thrown a no-hitter to boot. Coming off his worst outing of the season at Texas, Weaver will be motivated to bounce back tonight.
Suppan has actually pitched very well in three starts this season, but he hasn't faced a line-up nearly as potent as the one he'll be up against tonight. The Angels haven't hit that well yet this season, but it's only a matter of time with the talent they have up and down their line-up. Suppan has posted ERA's of 4.96, 5.29 and 5.06 in his last three seasons, respectively.
The Padres are 0-10 after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. They are getting outscored 2.1 to 5.3 in this spot, or by an average of 3.2 runs/game. Roll with the Angels on the Run Line Friday.
|05-18-12||Pittsburgh Pirates v. Detroit Tigers -1.5||0-6||Win||100||8 h 40 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-106)
After back-to-back losses to the lowly Minnesota Twins the last two days, it's safe to say that the Detroit Tigers will be hungry for a victory Friday. They turn to ace Justin Verlander to put an end to the losing streak, and I fully expect them to win in blowout fashion tonight over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Verlander won the AL MVP and the AL Cy Young last year in the same season. He has picked up right where he left off. The right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.874 WHIP in eight starts this season. Verlander sports a 1.78 ERA and 0.758 WHIP through four home starts as well.
Charlie Morton gets the ball for Pittsburgh. Morton has gone 2-3 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in two road starts. As you can see, he's clearly overmatched in this one.
Pittsburgh is hitting .221 and scoring 2.9 runs/game this season, including .219 and 2.7 runs/game against right-handed starters. It's safe to say that Verlander will have his way with this weak line-up. Verlander is 34-6 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 3 seasons, and the Tigers are winning by 2.4 runs/game in this spot. Take Detroit on the Run Line.
|05-17-12||Los Angeles: A Harang v. San Diego: E Volquez -117||8-1||Loss||-117||11 h 55 m||Show|
15* Dodgers/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego -117
I'm going to back the San Diego Padres tonight as they clearly have the better starter on the mound. The Los Angeles Dodgers just aren't the same without NL MVP candidate Matt Kemp in the line-up.
That has been evident in their last two games as the Dodgers have scored a combined 3 runs in losses to the Diamondbacks and Padres. Things won't get any easy for L.A. tonight against Edinson Volquez, who is 2-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 8 starts this season.
Volquez really loves throwing in pitcher-friendly San Diego, where he has posted a 2.41 ERA and 1.098 WHIP through six starts. He'll be opposed by the washed up Aaron Harang, who is 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in 7 starts this season.
Harang is 1-2 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in four road starts this year. He has been blown up for 14 earned runs, 31 base runners and 4 home runs over 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts against San Diego.
The Padres come in with some momentum after two straight wins. This play falls into a system that is 33-13 (71.7%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN DIEGO) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, terrible team, winning 38% or less of their games on the season. Take San Diego Thursday.
|05-17-12||Los Angeles Clippers +11 v. San Antonio Spurs||Top||88-105||Loss||-110||11 h 36 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Spurs TNT ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +11
It has certainly been a nice trend of backing teams that lose Game 1 in Game 2. I'm going to follow that path tonight as well by taking the Los Angeles Clippers as a double-digit underdog against the San Antonio Spurs.
Los Angeles hung tough in Game 1, but they simply didn't have the energy needed to keep up following their grueling 7-game series against the Memphis Grizzlies last round. With an extra day of rest, and knowing they cannot afford to go down 0-2, the Clippers will be giving max effort tonight for 48 minutes. It will be enough to cover this inflated spread.
San Antonio shot a ridiculous 13-of-25 (52.0 percent) from 3-point range in Game 1, and the odds are simply against them shooting that well again. They still only won by 15 points despite shooting so well from the perimeter. Look for Los Angeles to make the proper adjustments and to show better effort in rotating to San Antonio's 3-point shooters.
This play falls into a system that is 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.
The Spurs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Los Angeles is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. They are actually outscoring their opponents by 6.8 points/game in this spot. Bet the Clippers Thursday.
|05-16-12||Los Angeles Lakers +8 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||75-77||Win||100||11 h 42 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +8
I really like taking teams in Game 2 of a playoff series after a bad loss in Game 1. That's precisely what I'll do tonight by backing the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 2 Wednesday over the Oklahoma City Thunder. You can bet that the Lakers are going to give a much better showing in this one.
Los Angeles was simply tired from their Game 7 victory over Denver. The Lakers had to fly out to Oklahoma City, and they really didn't have a lot of time to prepare for the Thunder. After facing them once, and getting a practice day, the Lakers will be much more prepared for Game 2.
This is a team that sometimes just doesn't show up for whatever reason. However, when they really need a win, Kobe, Andrew Bynum and Co. really do give it their all, and usually come out on top. I look for that to be the case tonight and for this one to go right down to the wire as the Lakers make the proper adjustments on both sides of the ball.
"Everything's fixable. It's just about making adjustments. That's really what the postseason is," said Kobe Bryant, a five-time NBA champ. "They came out, took us out back and whooped us. It's on us to make adjustments, to make changes and come back with a better effort - and we will."
Oklahoma City is 0-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. They are only outscoring opponents in this spot by an average of 3.7 points/game. The Thunder are also just 3-12 ATS after scoring 110 or more points this season. They are winning in this spot by a mere 0.6 points/game. Take the Lakers in Game 2 Wednesday.
|05-16-12||Oakland: T Milone v. Texas: Y Darvish -1.5||1-4||Win||100||9 h 3 m||Show|
15* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-106)
Off back-to-back embarrassing losses to the Kansas City Royals, I look for the Texas Rangers to come out extra motivated for a win tonight. It will help having their best starter on the mound as well, which should lead to a blowout victory over the Oakland A's in Game 1 of this series.
Yu Darvish has lived up to the massive expectations set before him when the Rangers signed the Japanese star to huge contract this offseason. Darvish is 5-1 with a 2.84 ERA through seven starts in 2012. He has a whopping 51 strikeouts in 44 1/3 innings.
A's starter Tom Milone has been solid at home this season, but it's been a completely different story for him outside of the hitter-friendly Coliseum. Milone is 2-2 with a 7.84 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in four starts starts in 2012, surrendering 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 20 2/3 innings.
Texas is 20-3 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. They are winning by an average of 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Roll with the Rangers on the Run Line Wednesday.
|05-16-12||Boston Celtics +2 v. Philadelphia 76ers||Top||107-91||Win||100||8 h 7 m||Show|
20* Celtics/76ers TNT Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston +2
After a poor performance in Game 2 in which the Boston Celtics didn't even look like they were trying, I look for them to come out hungry and motivated in Game 3. Even though they didn't put their best foot forward, the Celtics still had a chance to win that game. You can bet the 76ers will be getting Boston's best effort tonight, which will be good enough for a Celtics win.
"I don't like the fact that we took, to me, almost three quarters to play the right way offensively," coach Doc Rivers said. "We knew the blueprint before the game. It took us three quarters to get into it. I always say that's on me. Somehow, I have to figure that out with our guys."
"Being in their building really isn't going to affect us," Ray Allen said. "It's all about how we play them when we get out there, how we take care and work together better than what we did (in Game 2)."
Boston is 11-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are also 8-0 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take these 100% & 92% systems straight to the bank tonight. Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Wednesday.
|05-15-12||Pittsburgh Pirates +170 v. Miami Marlins||2-6||Loss||-100||8 h 59 m||Show|
15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +170
I'm taking a stab at the Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday at a great price. Their starting pitcher tonight is in better form than Miami's, yet they are a huge underdog in this contest. You're not going to find much better value than what we're getting here.
These teams share similar records as the Pirates are 17-18, while the Marlins are 18-17 coming in. Pittsburgh has won three straight, so they're also playing with a lot of confidence. Starter Kevin Correia has posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in six starts this season, and he's 1-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in three road outings.
Miami went on a nice run from the end of April to midway through May, but the Marlins have cooled off by losing two of their last three. Josh Johnson isn't the same pitcher after coming off surgery in the offseason. Johnson is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.695 WHIP through seven starts in 2012.
Correia is 11-5 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 9-23 against the money line in home games after a one run loss over the last 3 seasons. Correia is 8-1 against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Take the Pirates Tuesday.
|05-15-12||Indiana Pacers +7 v. Miami Heat||Top||78-75||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +7
The Indiana Pacers represent my favorite bet for the second round of the 2012 NBA playoffs Tuesday. I look for Indiana to not only cover this inflated 7-point spread in Game 2, but to likely win it outright as well.
Miami is really going to miss Chris Bosh. The Pacers already have a huge length advantage in this series over the Heat, and now their height is going to be an even bigger edge. Bosh is underrated as he averages 18.0 points and 7.9 rebounds, and that's production that simply cannot be replaced.
The Pacers proved they could play with the Heat in Game 1. They held a 48-42 lead at halftime, and were tied 70-70 at the end of the 3rd quarter before getting outscored 16-25 over the final period. I look for Indiana to finish much stronger in this all-important Game 2 tonight.
The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games, while the Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. The underdog is 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings in this series overall. Indiana is a very profitable 217-163 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1996. Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.
|05-15-12||Oakland: B Colon +150 v. LA Anaheim: E Santana||0-4||Loss||-100||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland A's +150
The Los Angeles Angels continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers tonight, while the Oakland A's are not getting enough of it. I'll take full advantage by backing the A's at an excellent price Tuesday.
Oakland has been the better team this season, going 19-17 while the Angels are just 15-21. The biggest reason I am on the A's tonight is the match-up on the mound, which I believe favors Oakland.
Bartolo Colon, the 2005 AL Cy Young winner, is 3-0 with a 1.49 ERA and 0.826 WHIP in five road starts in 2012. Ervin Santana is 1-6 with a 5.09 ERA in seven starts this season, including 0-3 with a 5.22 ERA in three home starts.
Colon is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his last five starts against the Angels. He pitched 8 shutout innings on April 18th this season en route to a 6-0 victory at Los Angeles. Santana gave up 4 earned runs and 2 homers over 7 innings in that same game.
Colon is 15-3 against the money line on the road when the total is 7.5 or less since 1997. The A's are 5-1 in their last 6 road games. The Angels are 1-10 in Santana's last 11 starts, losing 91% of the time. Los Angeles is 0-5 in Santana's last 5 starts as a home favorite. Roll with the A's Tuesday.
|05-14-12||Colorado: C Friedrch v. San Francisco: Vogelsong -122||2-3||Win||100||11 h 17 m||Show|
15* Rockies/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -122
The San Francisco Giants are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Colorado Rockies Monday. The Rockies are really struggling right now, losers of three straight and eight of their last nine. This is a streaky team, and now is certainly the time to fade them.
Ryan Vogelsong remains one of the most underrated starts in the league. The right-hander has posted a 2.94 ERA through five starts this season, including a 2.03 ERA in two home starts. Vogelsong is 4-0 with a 1.01 ERA and 0.713 WHIP in four career starts against Colorado, having never lost to the Rockies.
Colorado is 7-25 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Rockies are 17-41 in their last 58 games as a road underdog. The Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. San Francisco is 51-25 in their last 76 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Take the Giants Monday.
|05-14-12||Los Angeles Lakers +7.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||Top||90-119||Loss||-106||11 h 38 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Thunder Game 1 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +7.5
I look for Game 1 of this series to go right down to the wire. Throughout the years, there's no question that Game 1 has been THE GAME for the road team to steal. At full strength with Metta World Peace back, the Lakers are as dangerous as any team left in the playoffs.
The Lakers are riding high following their impressive Game 7 victory over the Denver Nuggets a few nights ago. They have the momentum heading into this contest. That's because while Oklahoma City swept Dallas in the first round, they haven't played a game in 8 days. Look for the Thunder to come out rusty in this one.
The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games overall. Bet the Lakers in Game 1 Monday.
|05-14-12||New York Yankees -109 v. Baltimore Orioles||8-5||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -109
Great value here on the New York Yankees in Game 1 of this series against the Baltimore Orioles Monday. Jason Hammel and the Orioles are overrated right now after their surprising fast start. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.
The Yankees have something special going with Ivan Nova as they just simply tend to win when he gets the ball. Nova has been especially solid on the road, going 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts away from home in 2012.
Nova is 3-1 with a 3.96 ERA in six career starts against Baltimore. While Hammel has posted good numbers this year, he's certainly outperforming what he has done his entire career in the big leagues. Hammel is 1-3 with a 5.87 ERA in six career starts against New York.
New York is 58-23 against the money line revenging 2 straight losses where team scored 2 or less runs since 1997. The Yankees are 20-7 in Nova's last 27 starts overall. New York is 7-0 in Nova's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 50-17 in their last 67 meetings with the Orioles. Roll with the Yankees Monday.
|05-13-12||Detroit: Verlander -165 v. Oakland: J Parker||3-1||Win||100||5 h 30 m||Show|
15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -165
After losing the last two games of this series, the Detroit Tigers are highly motivated to salvage it with a win Sunday. With Ace Justin Verlander on the mound, I have no doubt they'll get the job done in this one.
Verlander is 3-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.935 WHIP through seven starts in 2012. Verlander is 6-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.198 WHIP in 12 career starts against Oakland.
Verlander is 16-2 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Verlander is 20-4 (+13.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Take the Tigers Sunday.
|05-13-12||Indiana Pacers +8.5 v. Miami Heat||Top||86-95||Loss||-110||5 h 56 m||Show|
20* Pacers/Heat ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5
The Indiana Pacers are the most dangerous threat to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference. They are way undervalued coming into this Game 1 showdown against the Heat Sunday, and I'll take full advantage.
These teams met four times in the regular season, and the Pacers got progressively better. Indiana lost by 35 in their first meeting, and by 15 in their second. Then, in their third meeting, the Pacers lost in overtime 93-91, and won their 4th meeting 105-90.
The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Heat are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Underdog is 24-9-1 ATS in the last 34 meetings in this series. Bet the Pacers Sunday.
|05-12-12||Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -260||Top||87-96||Win||100||12 h 29 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Saturday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -260
"Everything that has happened in this series has to be behind us, whether it's good or bad," said Pau Gasol, who managed three points on 1-for-10 shooting and three rebounds in Game 6. "We've got to rely on aggressiveness tomorrow, on energy. We've got to want it more than they do."
The Lakers are clearly focused and ready to play this game tonight. They can beat anyone in the league when that's the case, and I fully expect them to make easy work of the Nuggets in Game 7. And the cavalry is coming, in the form of an intense defender with dangerous elbows: Metta World Peace will start Game 7 after finishing his seven-game suspension for viciously hitting Oklahoma City's James Harden in the regular season.
"I expect him to come out and play with the tenacity that he's known for," Kobe Bryant said. "He's the one guy I can rely on, night in, night out, to compete and play hard, and play with that sense of urgency, play with no fear. I'm looking forward to having that on my side again." He called out his teammates, and I expect them to respond in this one.
The Lakers are 10-0 in their last 10 Game 7's at home. This is the biggest reason I'm taking them on the Money Line instead of the spread. I have no doubt they'll get it done as they put together their best effort in these 2012 playoffs. Bet the Lakers on the Money Line in Game 7 Saturday.
|05-12-12||Detroit: D Fister -130 v. Oakland: B Mccarthy||1-3||Loss||-130||10 h 55 m||Show|
15* Tigers/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit -130
The Detroit Tigers are showing solid value as a small favorite over the Oakland A's Saturday. Following their embarrassing 11-4 loss to the A's last night, there's no question the Tigers will be motivated for a win in Game 3.
Doug Fister has been untouchable thus far. Fister has posted a 0.00 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in two starts this season, not giving up a single earned run while allowing just 8 base runners over 10 2/3 innings.
Fister loves pitching against the A's. The right-hander is 5-3 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 10 career starts against Oakland. Detroit is 10-1 in Fister's last 11 starts overall. The Tigers are 7-0 in Fister's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Tigers are 45-18 in their last 63 games following a loss. Detroit is 21-5 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. The A's are 6-16 in their last 22 as a home underdog. Roll with the Tigers Saturday.
|05-12-12||Atlanta Braves v. St.Louis Cardinals -122||7-2||Loss||-122||9 h 16 m||Show|
15* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -122
You will rarely get Adam Wainwright at this kind of price at home. I'll take full advantage Saturday by backing Wainwright and the Cardinals Saturday. After a tough extra-innings loss to the Braves last night, the Cardinals are out for revenge in this one.
Wainwright has seemed to find his groove lately, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three outings. In the most recent of those, he allowed one run over seven innings and matched a season high with seven strikeouts in an 8-1 victory in Houston.
"It was the first time all year I've really felt extension out over the rubber and better life on the fastball, especially early on," Wainwright said. "I controlled the counts for the most part and let our defense work."
The right-hander will next try to pick up where he left off against the Braves. Wainwright (2-3, 5.61 ERA) has won each of his six career starts versus Atlanta - the most recent on Sept. 9, 2010 - while posting a 2.48 ERA. Take the Cardinals Saturday.
|05-11-12||Toronto Blue Jays -141 v. Minnesota Twins||6-7||Loss||-141||10 h 26 m||Show|
15* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -141
The Toronto Blue Jays are one of the most underrated teams in the league. I believe they are a legitimate contender in the AL East, though they don't get treated like it. The Blue Jays have a potent line-up and an underrated rotation, one that includes Kyle Drabek.
Drabek was a big-time prospect, and now he's living up to the hype as an everyday starter in Toronto. He has posted a 3.34 ERA through six starts this season. Drabek faced Minnesota once last season, allowing just one earned run over 7 innings in a 6-1 victory.
At 8-23, the Twins are one of the worst teams in baseball. Things won't get any easier for them tonight with Nick Blackburn on the mound. The righty is winless on the season, going 0-4 with a 6.84 ERA and 1.595 WHIP through five starts. The Twins are 0-5 in his five starts in 2012.
The Twins are 1-10 in Blackburn's last 11 starts overall, including 0-7 in his last 7 starts as an underdog. Minnesota is 4-17 in their last 21 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Roll with the Blue Jays Friday.
|05-11-12||Detroit: R Porcello -125 v. Oakland: T Milone||4-11||Loss||-125||10 h 25 m||Show|
15* Tigers/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit -125
The Detroit Tigers should be a much heavier favorite over the Oakland A's tonight. They exploded for 10 runs yesterday in a 10-6 victory over the A's in Game 1, and I look for the bats to stay red hot tonight against the overrated Tom Milone.
Milone has been absolutely rocked in his last two starts, giving up 12 earned runs, 18 base runners and 4 home runs over 9 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Detroit starter Rick Porcello has been dominant in his last two starts, yielding just 4 earned runs and 13 base runners over 14 1/3 innings.
Porcello is 9-1 against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 21-4 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. Porcello is 9-0 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are winning in this spot by an average of 4.9 runs/game. Take Detroit Friday.
|05-11-12||Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||Top||90-88||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
20* Grizzlies/Clippers ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis -1.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are favored for good reason tonight. I'll side with the oddsmakers in this one and back the Grizzlies in Game 6 Friday. Despite being down 3-2 in this series, I have no doubt that the Grizzlies are the better team.
Los Angeles has simply had good fortune late in games, which is the reason they lead this series. That good fortune has appeared to run out as their two superstars both suffered injuries in their Game 5 loss to the Grizzlies, and each is banged up heading into this one.
Griffin suffered a hyperflexed left knee in the loss. Though he was able to return, Griffin wasn't very effective in Game 5. Paul aggravated a right groin injury during the fourth quarter of Wednesday's defeat. He played through the injury for most of the final quarter before sitting out the final minute of the game. Paul is actually a game-time decision tonight.
The Grizzlies are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Memphis is 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Bet Memphis in Game 6 Friday.
|05-10-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 197||Top||96-113||Loss||-107||12 h 51 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 197
You could make the argument that every game in this series should have gone UNDER the total. The UNDER is 3-2 in the first five games, with the two OVERS going over by a combined 5.5 points. It took a 60-point combined 4th quarter in Game 5 for it to go OVER.
What I'm saying is that the clear value in Game 6 is with the UNDER. The defensive intensity in this game will be greater than any other game in this series yet. The Lakers have taken two games off defensively, and those are the two games that went OVER as Denver topped 100 points in each.
The Lakers will not take tonight off defensively. They realize they let a big opportunity slip away in Game 5, and now Kobe Bryant will rally the troops and make sure that his team executes on defense. Andrew Bynum has been called out by the media, so look for him to be a defensive stopper in the paint.
Los Angeles also got out of their game offensively in Game 5. They tried to run with Denver, which doesn't work. Look for the Lakers to slow down the pace and run their offense through their big men inside. This game will be played at a much slower tempo than Game 5 as the Lakers get back in transition defensively, and execute better offensively.
These teams have combined to average 191.8 points/game through the first five games, which is more than 5 points less than the posted total tonight. The UNDER is 22-7 in the last 29 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Denver. These teams combined for 183 and 180 points in Games 3 and 4 in Denver, respectively.
The Lakers are 10-2 to the UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season. The UNDER is 21-6 in Lakers last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday.
|05-10-12||Atlanta Hawks v. Boston Celtics -6.5||80-83||Loss||-109||9 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -6.5
After failing to close out the Atlanta Hawks in Game 5 with a tough 1-point loss in Atlanta, the Boston Celtics won't waste another opportunity in Game 6 tonight. I fully expect the Celtics to roll in blowout fashion and put the Hawks out of their misery.
I look for this game to take a similar path to Game 4, where the Celtics led huge the entire way. Boston would win that contest 101-79 at home in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.
Atlanta is a very tired team right now as they had four of their five starters play 41 or more minutes in Game 5. The other, Marvin Williams, played nearly 36 minutes. The Hawks didn't have one bench player play more than 8 minutes in Game 5. Look for Atlanta to ware down in the 4th quarter tonight.
The Hawks are 9-24 ATS in road games in all playoff games since 1996. The Celtics are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Boston is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. The Celtics are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. Take the Celtics in Game 6 Thursday.
|05-10-12||Texas: C Lewis -125 v. Baltimore: W Chen||5-6||Loss||-125||5 h 10 m||Show|
15* Rangers/Orioles Game 1 Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas -125
This is an excellent price to back to two-time defending AL champion Texas Rangers tonight in Game 3 of this series with Baltimore. Texas is raking at the plate right now, outscoring the Orioles 24-6 while winning the first two games of this series. I expect them to stay red hot tonight.
Texas sends Ace Colby Lewis to the mound as he looks to continue his solid start to the 2012 season. Lewis is 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.144 WHIP while striking out 31 batters in 39 2/3 innings. Off his worst start of the season against the Cleveland Indians, I fully expect Lewis to bounce back in a big way tonight.
Lefty Wei-Yin Chen is off to a decent start for the Orioles this season in his rookie year. However, he's in line to get rocked against a Rangers team that is batting .310 and scoring 7.1 runs/game against left-handed starters in 2012.
The Rangers are 13-1 against the money line after 2 straight wins by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Texas is 10-1 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. The Orioles are 29-61 in their last 90 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the Rangers Thursday.
|05-09-12||Detroit Tigers -128 v. Seattle Mariners||Top||1-2||Loss||-128||11 h 60 m||Show|
20* Tigers/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit -128
After finally putting an end to a 5-game losing streak to Seattle last night with a 6-4 victory, I look for the Detroit Tigers to start their own winning streak in this series. The Tigers should run away with Game 3 tonight with the better starter and the better line-up.
Rookie Drew Smyly is one of the most underrated starters in the league this season in the early going. Smyly (1-0, 1.61 ERA), who began the season at Triple-A Toledo, has been a pleasant surprise while allowing five earned runs and striking out 29 in 28 innings of his first five career starts.
Jason Vargas is an average starter in this league for Seattle, but he has not fared well against his opposition tonight. Vargas is 1-1 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.594 WHIP in four career starts against Detroit.
The Tigers are 9-2 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series. Detroit is 9-2 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Mariners are 21-53 in their last 74 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Tigers Wednesday.
|05-09-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -6||Top||80-92||Win||100||20 h 54 m||Show|
25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Memphis Grizzlies -6
In Game 5 Wednesday, the Memphis Grizzlies represent my strongest release of the entire 1st round of the 2012 NBA Playoffs. I have Memphis rolling to a blowout victory by double-digits tonight to extend this series. This game won't be nearly as competitive as the first four.
Memphis should arguably be up 3-1 in this series. They blew a 27-point lead in Game 1, then proceeded to go on the road to lose two games in Los Angeles by a combined 5 points. I have no doubt that Memphis is the better team, and they'll show it on the floor tonight as they take out their frustration on these Clippers.
Los Angeles is in a big letdown spot here. Unlike the Grizzlies, the Clippers are very comfortable with their position in this series. That will allow them to relax as a team knowing that they have a home contest in Game 6 in their hip pocket. This will easily be the worst effort of the series from L.A.
The Grizzlies are 17-6 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 30-14 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Memphis in Game 5 Wednesday.
|05-08-12||Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 199.5||Top||102-99||Loss||-110||31 h 14 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199.5
Once again, oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this series between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers. In an elimination game for Denver, this contest will be played with a very high level of intensity defensively. These teams will not reach 200 or more combined points.
The first four games in this series have seen 191, 204, 183 and 180 combined points, respectively. That's an average of 189.5 points/game, which is 10 full points lower than the posted total tonight. As you can see, we are basically getting 10 points of value on this UNDER in Game 5.
The Lakers have controlled the tempo in this series from Game 1. Denver likes to get out and run, but the Lakers simply haven't been allowing it. At Staples Center, Los Angeles will control the tempo once again tonight and make this a half-court game.
Los Angeles is 10-1 (91%) to the UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season. The UNDER is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 21-5 in Lakers last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 35-17 in the last 52 meetings in this series, including 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Tuesday.
|05-08-12||Detroit: Verlander -1.5 v. Seattle: K Millwood||6-4||Win||100||11 h 33 m||Show|
15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-109)
My only loss yesterday in a 2-1 performance came on the Detroit Tigers as they blew a 2-0 lead going into the bottom of the 9th. Octavio Dotel gave up 3 runs in the final half inning to lose the game for Detroit. I was obviously frustrated with the loss, but the Tigers will be even more angry and I fully expect them to take it out on the Mariners in Game 2 tonight.
Detroit has a lot of reason to be motivated heading into this one. The Tigers were swept at Comerica Park by the Mariners earlier this season, and they've now lost five straight to Seattle. There's no better starter they could have on the mound tonight to try and put an end to this losing streak.
Ace Justin Verlander, last year's AL Cy Young AND MVP winner, gets the ball in Game 2. Verlander is 2-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.860 WHIP in six starts this season, so he's clearly picked up right where he left off last year. He'll be up against Kevin Millwood, the washed up veteran who is 0-3 with a 5.34 ERA nd 1.570 WHIP in five starts in 2012.
Verlander is 15-0 (+15.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are winning in this situation by an average of 5.1 to 2.5 runs, outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs/game. Take the Tigers on the Run Line Tuesday.
|05-08-12||Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees -114||3-5||Win||100||8 h 37 m||Show|
15* Rays/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on New York -114
Rarely ever will you get the New York Yankees as this small of a home favorite. I'll take full advantage tonight as they take down the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of this AL East series. The Yankees trail the Rays within the division, so they'll certainly be up for this one.
The fact of the matter is that Tampa Bay isn't the same team without Evan Longoria, who went out for up to eight weeks with a hamstring injury. James Shields is a good starter, but he has not fared well against the Yankees. Shields is 5-11 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 21 career starts against New York.
Ivan Nova won 15 straight decisions before taking the loss last time out against the Baltimore Orioles. That's the second longest such streak in Yankees history, which says a lot. Without the pressure of the streak on his shoulders, the righty can get back to just focusing on pitching.
Nova is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.243 WHIP in four career starts against Tampa Bay. The Yankees are 4-0 in those four contests, so they've never lost when Nova goes against the Rays. Roll with the Yankees Tuesday.
|05-07-12||Detroit: D Fister -132 v. Seattle: B Beavan||2-3||Loss||-132||12 h 8 m||Show|
15* Tigers/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit -132
Doug Fister returns from the disabled list tonight to take on his former team in the Seattle Mariners. The Detroit Tigers have a big edge on the mound with Fister tonight, plus they have a much stronger line-up. I have them taking Game 1 of this series with room to spare.
Detroit is going to be highly motivated heading into this one after getting swept by Seattle at Comerica Park last month. Fister went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.839 WHIP in 11 starts last season for Detroit after getting traded from the Mariners before the deadline.
Blake Beavan is off to a slow start for Seattle, going 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA through five starts this season. He gave up 5 earned runs and two homers over 5 1/3 innings in a 4-5 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays last time out.
The Tigers are 19-2 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 10-1 in Fister's last 11 starts. The Mariners are 25-59 in their last 84 games as an underdog. Take Detroit Monday.
|05-07-12||Boston Red Sox -109 v. Kansas City Royals||11-5||Win||100||10 h 18 m||Show|
15* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -109
The Boston Red Sox are showing tremendous value Monday as a small road favorite over the Kansas City Royals. After five straight losses, it's safe to say that the Red Sox will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series tonight.
We have a pair of South Paws going at it Monday, which clearly favors Boston. The Red Sox are scoring 6.7 runs/game against left-handed starters this season, while the Royals are hitting .206 and scoring 1.5 runs/game against lefties in 2012.
Jonathan Sanchez just hasn't been a good addition to this Kansas City rotation. The lefty is 1-1 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.701 WHIP in five starts this season, and he has posted an 8.21 ERA and 2.216 WHIP in two home starts.
The Royals are 0-8 against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. Kansas City is 0-9 against the money line after 3 or more consecutive home games this season. The Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter. These four trends make for a perfect 29-0 system backing Boston. Roll with the Red Sox Monday.
|05-07-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz +8.5||Top||87-81||Win||100||10 h 3 m||Show|
20* Spurs/Jazz TNT Monday No-Brainer on Utah +8.5
I fully expect the Utah Jazz to lay it all on the line in Game 4 to avoid the sweep. Utah is a prideful team and one that will not quit even though they lost the first three games of this series. I also expect the San Antonio Spurs to relax knowing they have a 3-0 lead, which will allow Utah to cover this inflated number in a game I believe they can win outright.
Utah showed they could play with San Antonio in Game 3 as they trailed by just 2 at halftime before getting outscored by 10 points after intermission. The Jazz were just a 5.5-point underdog in that game, and now they are catching 8.5 points. That's 3 full points of value, and I'll gladly take advantage.
This play falls into a system that is 53-25 (67.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.
The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Spurs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Utah in Game 4 Monday.
|05-06-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 202||Top||92-88||Win||100||12 h 1 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 202
In this all-important Game 4 Sunday between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets, I have no doubt this will be a defensive battle. This is the "make or break" game for Denver. If they want to win this series, they must win Game 4. The level of intensity on the defensive end will be at an all-time high in this series.
Once again, oddsmakers have missed their mark in setting this total much higher than it should be. Two of the first three games have gone UNDER the posted total with combined scores of 191, 204 and 183 points. That's an average of 192.7 points/game, which is nearly 10 points lower than the posted total tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 50-16 (75.8%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
This play falls into another system that is 30-5 (85.7%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|05-06-12||Philadelphia: C Hamels +104 v. Washington: Zimmermann||9-3||Win||104||10 h 20 m||Show|
15* Phillies/Nationals ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Philadelphia +104
Any time I can get Cole Hamels as an underdog I'm going to look to take advantage. This guy remains one of the most underrated starters in the league. Somehow, he even gets overlooked on his own team considering Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee reside in Philadelphia.
Hamels went 14-9 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 31 starts last season. The left-hander has picked up right where he left off, going 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.082 WHIP with 36 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings in 2012.
After losing the first two games of this series, the Phillies are highly-motivated to salvage it with a Game 3 victory. Hamels is 10-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.106 WHIP in 20 career starts against Washington, so I like their chances. Jordan Zimmerman is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in three career starts against Philly.
The Phillies are 25-6 in Hamels' last 31 May starts. The Phillies are 5-0 in Hamels' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Philly is 9-1 in Hamels' last 10 starts vs. Washington, including 4-0 in his last 4 road starts in this series. Take the Phillies Sunday.
|05-06-12||Texas: Y Darvish -170 v. Cleveland: U Jimenez||2-4||Loss||-170||3 h 15 m||Show|
15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -170
I rarely lay this kind of juice, but I'm willing to do so Sunday on the Texas Rangers with 100% confidence that they'll win this game against the Cleveland Indians. They have a huge edge on the mound and at the plate in the Game 3 rubber match.
Yu Darvish has been everything he was expected to be and more. Darvish is 4-0 with a 2.18 ERA through five starts this season, striking out 33 batters in 33 innings. The Rangers are 5-0 in his five starts, and they improve to 6-0 tonight with him on the mound this season.
Ubaldo Jimenez is done for. He has lost velocity on his fastball, and the Indians simply made a terrible trade last year. However, Cleveland isn't ready to give up on him, so Jimenez is going to continue to get rocked. The righty is 2-2 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.744 WHIP in five starts this season.
The Rangers are 22-6 in the last 28 meetings with the Indians, including 14-4 in their last 18 meetings in Cleveland. Texas is 10-0 against the money line as a road favorite of -150 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Rangers Sunday.
|05-05-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz UNDER 202.5||102-90||Win||100||23 h 29 m||Show|
15* Spurs/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 202.5
Oddsmakers continue to set the total too high in this San Antonio Spurs versus Utah Jazz series. Game 1 was set at 205.5 and finished with 197 combined points, and Game 2 was set at 202.5 and finished with 197 combined points as well. They have set Game 3 at 202.5, and it's once again too many points.
The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another. That favors the defenses as teams know how to take away the offensive strengths of the opposition. After the Spurs average 110 points/game in the first two games of this series, I have no doubt that Utah will make the proper adjustments to slow down San Antonio.
Utah has averaged 88.3 points/game in their last three meetings with San Antonio, so the Spurs have them figured out. The Jazz have been a solid defensive team at home all season, allowing just 95.9 points/game in Salt Lake City. The Spurs give up 96.2 points/game on the season.
This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series.
Utah is 9-1 to the UNDER revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Jazz are 13-4 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Take the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.
|05-05-12||Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5 v. Dallas Mavericks||103-97||Win||100||21 h 59 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Mavericks TNT Saturday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -1.5
This series is over. It's just like the Los Angeles Lakers last year when they got swept by the Mavericks. The Lakers should have won the first two games of that series, but they lost both and did not really show up in Games 3 and 4.
The Mavericks should have won at least one of the first two games in Oklahoma City, but they lost both and were blown out in Game 3. Knowing that no team has ever come back to win a series from an 0-3 deficit, the Mavericks feel like they are already beaten and won't show up in Game 4.
The Thunder are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Mavericks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. The road team is 35-15-2 ATS in the last 52 meetings. The Thunder are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Dallas. Roll with the Thunder in Game 3 Saturday.
|05-05-12||Texas: D Holland -131 v. Cleveland: D Lowe||5-2||Win||100||20 h 28 m||Show|
15* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -131
Off three straight losses, the Texas Rangers are highly-motivated for a win Saturday. The two-time defending AL champs are in the midst of their first losing streak of the season, and you can bet they do not like how it tastes. I expect them to do something about it in Game 2 of this series with the Cleveland Indians tonight.
Texas starter Derek Holland is one of the best young left-handers in the game. He has faced the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays in his last three starts, and as you can imagine he hasn't fared too well.
After facing three of the best line-ups in baseball, Holland now gets a break against one of the worst. The lefty is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in three career starts against Cleveland, and the Rangers are a perfect 3-0 in those games having never lost when Holland starts.
The Rangers are 41-17 in their last 58 games following a loss. Texas is 27-7 in their last 34 games as a road favorite. The Rangers are 14-2 in their last 16 during Game 2 of a series. Cleveland is 8-20 in their last 28 games as a home underdog. The Rangers are 21-6 in the last 26 meetings with the Indians, including 13-4 in their last 16 meetings in Cleveland. Bet the Rangers Saturday.
|05-05-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 187||Top||86-87||Win||100||18 h 59 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Clippers UNDER 187
The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers are highly likely to play in a low-scoring, defensive battle in this all-important Game 3 tonight. I know the first two games went OVER, but there's no question shots will be tougher to come by as the defense gets amped up with the series tied 1-1.
The Game 1 total was set at 183.5, and the Game 2 total was set at 184.5. They have jacked this total up to 187, providing us with a lot of value on the UNDER. The first two games of this series have been out of the ordinary as their three regular season meetings saw 179, 186 and 187 combined points.
This play falls into a system that is 35-9 (79.5%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - in a playoff series which is tied, with a winning record on the season.
The Clippers are a perfect 11-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing >=16 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 8-1 in Grizzlies last 9 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.
|05-04-12||Miami: J Johnson -118 v. San Diego: A Bass||9-8||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
15* Marlins/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami -118
Year in and year out, the Miami Marlins tend to play their best baseball on the road. They are coming off a 3-game sweep at San Francisco, and they head into this series with San Diego with a lot of confidence.
Getting Ace Josh Johnson as a small favorite over the lowly Padres is an absolute gift from oddsmakers tonight. Johnson isn't off to the best start, but as a result he's undervalued right now.
This guy is still one of the best starters in the game, and he'll have no problem mowing down this weak Padres' line-up. Johnson has posted a 2.60 ERA and 0.904 WHIP in four career starts against San Diego.
The Marlins are 35-16 in Johnson's last 51 starts with 4 days of rest. Miami is 19-7 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Marlins are 9-3 in their last 12 games as a road favorite. The Padres are 16-38 in their last 54 games as a home underdog. Roll with the Marlins Friday.
|05-04-12||Chicago Bulls v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 179||Top||74-79||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
25* NBA 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/76ers UNDER 179
The Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers will take part in a defensive battle tonight in Game 3. The first two games in Chicago were unusually high-scoring, but I have no doubt that defense will prevail in this all-important Game 3.
The fact of the matter is that the Bulls simply play in more low-scoring games when Derrick Rose is not on the floor. They average 7 less points/game offensively, and give up 4.5 points less defensively. Philly isn't going to shoot anywhere near 59.0 percent again in Game 3 like they did in Game 2.
This play falls into a system that is 47-19 to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (Chicago) - in a playoff series which is tied, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.
Chicago is 23-7 to the UNDER revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 18-6 in Bulls last 24 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 27-12 in 76ers last 39 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|05-04-12||Texas: C Lewis -143 v. Cleveland: J Gomez||3-6||Loss||-143||7 h 15 m||Show|
15* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -143
Off rare back-to-back losses, the two-time defending AL champion Texas Rangers are hungry for a win Friday. They are well-rested after having Thursday off, so I believe they'll be ready to go in Game 1 against Cleveland tonight.
Their two recent losses mark the first time all season that Texas (17-8) has dropped back-to-back games. That just shows the resiliency of this ball club as they don't let themselves go on long losing streaks.
Ace Colby Lewis gets the ball tonight and he's having a tremendous year. Lewis is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.041 WHIP with 29 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings. Jeanmar Gomez is off to a surprising solid start for Cleveland, but reality sets in tonight against one of the best line-ups in baseball.
The Rangers are 41-16 in their last 57 games following a loss. Texas is 27-6 in their last 33 games as a road favorite. The Rangers are 6-1 in Lewis' last 7 starts as a road favorite. Cleveland is 7-20 in their last 27 games as a home underdog. The Rangers are 21-5 in the last 26 meetings with the Indians, including 13-3 in their last 16 meetings in Cleveland. Texas is 4-0 in Lewis' 4 career starts against the Indians. Take Texas Friday.
|05-03-12||Toronto: B Morrow v. LA Anaheim: D Haren -128||Top||5-0||Loss||-128||21 h 41 m||Show|
25* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -128
The Los Angeles Angels are finally starting to play up to their potential. They just swept the Minnesota Twins, capped by a no-hitter from Jered Weaver last night. I look for the Angels to use that no-hitter to bring themselves closer together as a team.
Plus, after your Ace throws a no-hitter, everyone else on the staff tends to try to pick their game up. Dan Haren is also an Ace, but he just so happens to be playing on the same team as Weaver, so he's slotted into the No. 2 spot.
Haren has been solid this season, going 1-1 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in five starts. He has been real dominant over his last three starts, going 1-0 wtih a 1.64 ERA and 0.818 WHIP.
Brandon Morrow is no match for Haren in this one. Morrow is 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in three career starts against Los Angeles. The Blue Jays are 0-3 in those games, and I look for this all-time winless streak to continue tonight.
The Angels are 32-12 in their last 44 home games with a total set of 7 or less. Los Angeles is 35-17 in their last 52 games as a home favorite. The Angels are 5-1 in Haren's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Angels Thursday.
|05-03-12||Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 v. Dallas Mavericks||95-79||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Mavericks TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +3.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder have a huge mental edge heading into this one. They won the first two games of this series by a combined 4 points, so they'll be the team that is confident down the stretch once this one goes right down to the wire.
OKC already came into this series with a chip on their shoulder having lost to Dallas in five games in the Western Conference Finals last year. They aren't about to let up with a 2-0 lead, instead I fully expect them to go in for the kill tonight.
The Thunder have won the first two games despite poor shooting from Kevin Durant, who is just 15-of-44 from the field. You have to expect he's going to turn it on in Game 3, and I certainly like his mindset with the following comments.
"That's what it's all about. That's why I'm a winner. That's what I want to be labeled as, a guy that wins games," Durant said. "I know I'm not shooting the ball well but I'm just trying to do other things. I can't dwell on the last two games. I've just got to move on. Move on. We'll see what happens in the next game."
The road team is 34-15-2 ATS in the last 51 meetings. The underdog is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Thunder are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Dallas. The Mavericks are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 Thursday games. The Thunder are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 Thursday games. Take Oklahoma City Thursday.
|05-02-12||Philadelphia Phillies -113 v. Atlanta Braves||13-15||Loss||-113||8 h 58 m||Show|
15* NL Wednesday Mound Mismatch on Philadelphia Phillies -113
Rarely ever will you get Ace Roy Halladay at this kind of price. I am going to take full advantage Wednesday and back Halladay and the Phillies against the Atlanta Braves.
Halladay is 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in five starts this season. Halladay has owned the Braves, going 3-1 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in six career starts against Atlanta.
Tommy Hanson is a better-than-average starter, but he's no Halladay. Hanson is 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in five starts.
The Phillies are 23-4 in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Philly is 23-5 in Halladay's last 28 starts vs. National League East. The Phillies are 41-14 in Halladay's last 55 starts overall.
Philly is 8-0 in Halladay's last 8 Wednesday starts. The Braves are 0-9 in their last 9 games as an underdog. Atlanta is 0-5 in Hanson's last 5 starts vs. National League East. The Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 meetings with Atlanta. These four trends make for a 30-0 system backing Philly. Take the Phillies Wednesday.
|05-02-12||Utah Jazz +11.5 v. San Antonio Spurs||Top||83-114||Loss||-109||8 h 48 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Jazz +11.5
After losing by 15 points to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1, I have the Utah Jazz putting up a much better fight in Game 2. This is a team that heads into the playoffs red-hot, and they're not about to let one bad performance slow them down.
Remember, Utah won five straight games heading into the postseason. That includes three victories over playoff contenders, including their all-important 100-88 win over Phoenix. This is a team that believes they can win when few outside their locker room think they can.
The Spurs are simply overvalued in this spot. San Antonio has only beaten Utah three times in their last 14 meetings by more than 10 points. Utah is simply a better team than they get credit for, while the Spurs are getting too much respect with their No. 1 seed.
This play falls into a system that is 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.
|05-02-12||Arizona: J Saunders v. Washington: E Jackson -121||4-5||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -121
The Washington Nationals are showing great value as a small home favorite over the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. Washington is the real deal this season at 14-9 as they finally have the pieces in place to be a contender in the National League.
The problem is that the Nationals don't get treated like they are a contender. That's actually good news for bettors who catch on, because this team will be undervalued almost the entire first half of the season.
Edwin Jackson is 1-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 0.974 WHIP with 26 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings over four starts this season. Jackson has also posted a 3.33 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in four career starts against Arizona. I'll gladly take my chances with this underrated starter tonight.
After five straight defeats, this is a highly-motivated Nationals team. They have been brilliant at home, going 10-3 in their last 13 home games dating back to last season. Arizona is a quality team, but I believe Washington simply wants this one more.
The Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Washington is 6-0 in their last 6 Wednesday games. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series. Arizona is 2-8 in Joe Saunders' last 10 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. These four trends make for a 27-2 (93%) system backing Washington. Roll with the Nationals Wednesday.
|05-01-12||Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -4.5||Top||100-104||Loss||-107||30 h 56 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -4.5
The Los Angeles Lakers should be a bigger favorite in Game 2 tonight. That's evident by the way that this team dominated the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 en route to a 103-88 victory. L.A. finally put a full four quarters together, and I expect more of the same tonight as they are now in playoff mode.
Los Angeles simply has a huge mismatch inside in this series as the Nuggets don't have anyone to defend Andrew Bynum or Pau Gasol consistently. Defensively, Bynum and Gasol make life miserable for these undersized Nuggets, as evident by Bynum's 10 blocks in Game 1. Dener shot 14-of-44 (32 percent) in the paint when Bynum was on the floor.
This is a very hungry team after getting swept in the playoffs last year by the Dallas Mavericks, so don't expect them to take the Nuggets lightly in Game 2 after a strong Game 1 performance.
The Lakers were nearly unbeatable at home this season while posting a 27-7 record at Staples Center. They have posted a 30-5 home record against the Nuggets in all meetings at Staples since 1996.
The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Los Angeles is 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home meetings with Denver. Bet the Lakers Tuesday.
|05-01-12||Miami: R Nolasco +140 v. San Francisco: M Cain||2-1||Win||140||11 h 34 m||Show|
15* Marlins/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +140
The Miami Marlins are showing great value tonight against the San Francisco Giants in National League action. Miami sends underrated starter Ricky Nolasco to the mound in a game that I believe he's going to dominate.
Nolasco is 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in four starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.800 WHIP in two road starts. For whatever reason, this guy absolutely loves pitching on the road and has been a great bet away from home throughout his career.
Nolasco is 20-12 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. The righty is also 13-4 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in road games against NL West opponents in his career.
Nolasco is 4-2 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in six career starts against San Francisco. Miami is 4-0 in their last 4 meetings in San Francisco. Finally, the Marlins are 10-1 in Nolasco's last 11 Tuesday starts. Take the Marlins Tuesday.
|05-01-12||Philadelphia Phillies +112 v. Atlanta Braves||4-2||Win||112||8 h 40 m||Show|
15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +112
Rarely will you ever get the Philadelphia Phillies as an underdog with Cole Hamels on the mound. I'll take advantage and back Hamels and the Phillies in this Game 1 showdown with the Atlanta Braves Tuesday night.
Hamels had a career year last season, going 14-9 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.986 WHIP with 194 strikeouts in 216 innings. He has picked up right where he left off, going 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.025 WHIP with 30 K's in 26 1/3 innings over four starts in 2012.
Hamels is 11-6 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in 23 career starts against Atlanta. Braves starter Brandon Beachy is 0-3 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.416 WHIP in six career starts against Philadelphia. Atlanta is 0-6 in Beachy's six career starts against the Phillies. Roll with the Phillies Tuesday.
|04-30-12||Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 195||Top||99-102||Loss||-110||11 h 59 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 195
The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder played in a thrilling 99-98 contest in Game 1 for 197 combined points. I look for more defense to be played tonight, and less points for both teams. They combined for 55 points in the 4th quarter alone to have Game 1 going OVER the posted total of 192.5.
They have jacked this total up a full 2.5 points from the Game 1 line, providing us with great value on the UNDER. Remember, the UNDER was 3-0 in the final three meetings of 2012 between the Thunder and Mavs. They combined for 187, 181 and 186 points in their previous three meetings, respectively.
The UNDER is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings in Oklahoma City. The UNDER is 7-3 in Thunder last 10 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 Monday games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Mavericks last 10 Monday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|04-30-12||Pittsburgh: J Mcdonald +165 v. Atlanta: M Minor||9-3||Win||165||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* NL Monday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +165
This is an excellent price to back the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight against the Atlanta Braves. Pittsburgh sends underrated hurler James McDonald to the mound in a match-up with Mike Minor that is much more evenly-matched than this line would indicate.
In fact, you could argue that McDonald is the better starter. The righty has posted a 2.78 ERA and 1.015 WHIP through four starts while allowing just seven earned runs and 23 base runners over 22 2/3 innings. Minor sports a 3.42 ERA and 0.987 WHIP through four starts.
McDonald is 2-0 with a 0.98 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in three career starts against Atlanta, all of which have occurred over the last two seasons. He has given up just two earned runs and 23 base runners while striking out 18 over 18 1/3 innings in his career against the Braves.
Pittsburgh is 18-10 (+16.2 Units) against the money line revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are 17-9 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss by 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.
Pittsburgh is 6-0 in their last 6 games following a loss. The Braves are 0-7 in their last 7 Monday games. The Pirates are 4-0 in McDonald's last 4 Monday starts. These three trends make for a 17-0 system backing the underdog Pirates. Roll with Pittsburgh Monday.
|04-29-12||Tampa Bay: D Price v. Texas: D Holland -128||5-2||Loss||-128||10 h 37 m||Show|
15* Rays/Rangers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Texas -128
The Texas Rangers are showing tremendous value as a small home favorite over the Tampa Bay Rays Sunday night. I'll gladly back them at this price almost every single time, especially with underrated starter Derek Holland on the mound.
Holland is 17-3 against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse since 1997. Texas is 44-16 against the money line after batting .290 or better over a 20 game span over the last 2 seasons. Take the Rangers Sunday.
|04-29-12||Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -4.5||Top||88-103||Win||100||5 h 3 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -4.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are getting no respect in their Game 1 showdown with Denver. As only a 4.5-point home favorite, I'll pull the trigger on the Lakers. This is one of the best teams in the league when they want to be, and they own the Denver Nuggets.
The Lakers are 29-5 against the Nuggets at home since 1996. The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games this season. Bet the Lakers Sunday.
|04-28-12||Washington Nationals -114 v. Los Angeles Dodgers||3-4||Loss||-114||13 h 12 m||Show|
15* Nats/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington Nationals -114
You will rarely get Stephen Strasburg at this kind of price. I'm going to take advantage Saturday as home-field advantage means nothing in baseball.
Strasburg is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA and 0.920 WHIP through four starts this season. He didn't give up an earned run in his lone career starts against the Dodgers.
The Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Washington is 6-0 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series. The Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Washington is 6-0 in Strasburg's last 6 road starts. The Nationals are 7-0 in Strasburgs last 7 starts as a road favorite. This makes for a 32-0 system backing Washington. Roll with the Nationals Saturday.
|04-28-12||Orlando Magic +9.5 v. Indiana Pacers||81-77||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9.5
The Orlando Magic are getting no love from oddsmakers tonight because they don't have Dwight Howard. As a result, the Magic are showing tremendous value in Game 1.
The Magic have been playing without him long enough that they know how to. This team is getting written off heading into the playoffs because they don't have Howard, and I believe they use it as motivation.
The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Central. The 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Orlando is 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Pacers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite. Indiana is way overvalued here. Take Orlando Saturday.
|04-28-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Chicago Bulls -8.5||Top||91-103||Win||100||5 h 58 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -8.5
Evan Turner of the Philadelphia 76ers has been calling out the Chicago Bulls as they're the team they wanted to face. I believe the Bulls make a statement Saturday with a double-digit blowout victory in Game 1.
The Bulls are 26-7 at home this season, while the 76ers are 16-17 on the road. That includes an 89-80 home victory for the Bulls in their most recent meeting on March 17th.
The 76ers are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Philly is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Bet Chicago Saturday.
|04-27-12||Pittsburgh Pirates +175 v. Atlanta Braves||1-6||Loss||-100||11 h 0 m||Show|
15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +175
The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing their best value of the season tonight as a huge road underdog to the Atlanta Braves. Quietly, Pittsburgh has gone 5-3 over the last eight games despite being an underdog in all eight contests.
A.J. Burnett is going to love his move to the National League this season as he gets away from the deadly AL East division. Burnett dominated in his first start, pitching 7 shutout innings while allowing just five base runners and striking out seven in a 2-0 victory over St. Louis on April 21st.
Tommy Hanson is a quality starter, but he should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. He has posted a 3.37 ERA this season, and a 3.75 ERA in two career starts against Pittsburgh. I believe this is a very evenly-matched game on the mound, so I'll back the Pirates at a great price.
Pittsburgh is 9-2 against the money line in road games after 5 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Take the Pirates Friday.
|04-27-12||DET TIGERS -123 v. New York Yankees||6-7||Loss||-123||11 h 31 m||Show|
15* Tigers/Yankees AL Friday No-Brainer on Detroit -123
Rarely every will you get Ace Justin Verlander at this good of a price. The New York Yankees are getting too much respect tonight because they are playing at home. However, home-field advantage matters very little in baseball unlike other sports.
After winning the AL Cy Young and the AL MVP Award last season, Verlander has come back very strong again this year. Detroit's Ace is 2-1 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.798 WHIP in four starts while striking out 31 batters in 31 1/3 innings.
Ivan Nova gets way too much respect simply because he pitches in New York. He has a good record over the last few years, but his numbers really haven't been that impressive. Off four straight losses, I like Detroit's bats to come alive in this one while Verlander shuts down the Yankees.
The Tigers are 14-3 in their last 17 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Detroit is 41-13 in Verlander's last 54 starts as a favorite, including a perfect 9-0 in Verlander's last 9 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Tigers Friday.
|04-27-12||LA Anaheim: J Weaver -135 v. Cleveland: J Mastersn||Top||2-3||Loss||-135||10 h 21 m||Show|
20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -135
Rarely ever will you get Ace Jered Weaver at this good of a price. The Cleveland Indians are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight because they are playing at home. Baseball is a sport where home-field advantage means very little.
Weaver has been one of the best starters in the game over the last few years, and he's off to a fast start this season. Weaver is 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.775 WHIP through four starts. Justin Masterson, his counterpart, is 0-2 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.615 WHIP through four starts.
After a slow start, which includes three straight losses, I believe the Angels are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight. This is one of the best teams in the league, and time will tell.
The Angels are 42-16 in Weaver's last 58 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Indians are 6-21 in their last 27 games as a home underdog, and 0-4 in Masterson's last 4 starts as an underdog. Bet the Angels Friday.
|04-26-12||Boston Red Sox +110 v. Chicago White Sox||10-3||Win||110||9 h 1 m||Show|
15* Red Sox/White Sox AL Thursday No-Brainer on Boston +110
Chicago White Sox starter Philip Humber is coming off the 21st perfect game in MLB history. Now, after such a remarkable accomplishment, it's only human nature for Humber to have a letdown in his next start. Plus, he's not facing the Seattle Mariners this time.
The Boston Red Sox are finally back on track after sweeping a 3-game set in Minnesota the last three days. Boston scored a combined 24 runs in the series, or an average of 8.0 runs/game. The Red Sox are now hitting .291 and scoring 5.5 runs/game this year.
Felix Doubront has pitched well in three starts for Boston. While he doesn't have a decision yet, Doubront has posted a 3.94 ERA while striking out 20 batters in 16 innings. Humber went 1-1 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in two starts against Boston last year, giving up eight earned runs in 12 1/3 innings.
The Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The White Sox are 0-5 in Humber's last 5 starts vs. American League East. Chicago is 1-7 in Humber's last 8 home starts. Roll with the Red Sox Thursday.
|04-26-12||New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats +4||Top||104-84||Loss||-110||9 h 48 m||Show|
25* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats +4
The New York Knicks don't seem overly concerned about where they start their postseason regardless of the outcome of their regular-season finale. The Charlotte Bobcats, however, have plenty of incentive to win Thursday night to avoid capping an utterly miserable and potentially record-setting season of futility.
The Knicks will play either the Bulls or Heat in the first round of the playoffs pending the outcome of this game, and they really don't care who. "Right now it really doesn't matter," Knicks star Carmelo Anthony said. "Whoever we play, we'll have to start on the road anyway, so we just want to start just preparing for whether it's Chicago, whether it's Miami, just get ready to go."
New York clearly does not care about the outcome of this game considering they are resting Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler, Amar'e Stoudemire, Baron Davis and Jared Jeffries. Also, Jeremy Lin remains out with a knee injury. Without these six players, you could argue that Charlotte will actually have more talent on the floor tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 54-26 (67.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs (Charlotte) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days. The Bobcats are the team with something to play for tonight, and that's why I'm backing them. Bet Charlotte Thursday.
|04-26-12||New Jersey Nets +8 v. Toronto Raptors||67-98||Loss||-110||8 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +8
The Toronto Raptors are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. Both the New Jersey Nets and the Raptors are struggling down the stretch, and this line has clearly been inflated. New Jersey has lost five in a row while Toronto has dropped four straight.
The Nets will be playing mostly players that are trying to prove that they belong in the league. They are also trying to play for a roster spot next season. There's no question that New Jersey will be playing inspired basketball tonight because of the players they'll have on the floor.
New Jersey is 14-4 ATS after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Toronto is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the Nets Thursday.
|04-25-12||Los Angeles Clippers +4 v. New York Knicks||Top||93-99||Loss||-110||9 h 13 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +4
While the Los Angeles Clippers lost to the Atlanta Hawks last night, they still have something to play for. Los Angeles can no longer win the Pacific Division, or the No. 3 seed in the West. However, the Clippers are still battling Memphis for the No. 4 seed.
That means home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs is at stake, which is huge. Los Angeles would get the No. 4 seed with either a win over New York tonight, or a Grizzlies loss to the Orlando Magic tomorrow night. The Clippers certainly want to just take care of business tonight and not leave it in Memphis' hands.
While New York mathematically is still alive for the No. 6 seed in the East, they realize their chances are slim to none. The Knicks would need to go 2-0 the rest of the way while the Magic would have to go 0-2. Fat chance considering the Magic play the Bobcats tonight and are a 14.5-point favorite. New York isn't nearly as concerned about winning this game as Los Angeles is.
The road team has won five of the last seven meetings in this series. Blake Griffin has scored 65 points and grabbed 21 rebounds in two career games against the Knicks. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.
|04-25-12||Seattle: F Hernandz v. Detroit: A Wilk -108||9-1||Loss||-108||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -108
Felix Hernandez is one of the best starters in baseball. However, he plays on one of the worst teams in the league, and he's constantly overvalued as a result. I'll gladly back the Detroit Tigers at this generous price at home tonight.
The Tigers are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight considering they've lost four of their last five overall. Starter Adam Wilk has been respectable in two starts this season against the Rangers and White Sox. He has posted a 4.00 ERA while allowing four earned runs in 9 innings.
Detroit is 21-7 against the money line after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. The Mariners are 4-10 in Hernandez's last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 2-5 in his last 7 starts overall, and 0-5 in his last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
The Tigers are 43-12 in their last 55 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Detroit is 22-5 in their last 27 during game 2 of a series. The Tigers are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Detroit is 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Tigers Wednesday.
|04-24-12||Phoenix Suns +5 v. Utah Jazz||Top||88-100||Loss||-106||11 h 13 m||Show|
20* Suns/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +5
The Phoenix Suns should not be a 5-point underdog to the Utah Jazz tonight. This is a game that I believe Phoenix wins outright. The Suns have the more veteran team with playoff experience that will shine through in this elimination game.
If Phoenix wins Tuesday, it would lock up the eighth seed with either a victory over West-leading San Antonio on Wednesday or a Utah loss versus Portland the following night. A Phoenix loss tonight and the Suns would be eliminated from the playoffs, giving the Jazz the No. 8 spot.
This is one team that the Suns clearly match up well against. Phoenix is a perfect 7-0 in their last seven meetings with Utah. That includes four straight wins at Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City. Three of those four road victories came by double-digits.
Utah is 1-10 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Phoenix is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Suns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Throw in the fact that the Suns are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings and we have a combined 42-2 System backing Phoenix. Bet the Suns Tuesday.
|04-24-12||Philadelphia Phillies -108 v. Arizona Diamondbacks||8-5||Win||100||10 h 17 m||Show|
15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -108
The Philadelphia Phillies are hungry for a win following three consecutive losses. They scored 5 runs in the 9th inning last night in a 9-5 loss to Arizona which could give them some much-needed confidence at the plate heading into this one.
Philly will start one of the most underrated starters in the league tonight. After going 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.230 WHIP with 119 strikeouts in 131.2 innings last year, Vance Worley has gone 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in three starts this season. He simply gets overlooked in this dominant Phillies rotation that features Halladay, Hamels and Lee.
Josh Collmenter has been in a funk in the early going for Arizona. Collmenter is 0-1 with a 10.22 ERA and 1.703 WHIP through three starts this season. He has given up 14 earned runs, 4 home runs and 21 base runners in 12 2/3 innings.
Arizona is 5-20 against the money line after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more runs over the last 3 seasons. The Phillies are 64-29 in their last 93 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Philly is 47-19 in their last 66 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Phillies are 6-0 in Worley's last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Philly is 8-2 in Worley's last 10 road starts. Take the Phillies Tuesday.
|04-24-12||Toronto: H Alvarez -115 v. Baltimore: T Hunter||1-2||Loss||-115||8 h 42 m||Show|
15* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Blue Jays -115
The Toronto Blue Jays have been one of the best teams in the league in the early going thanks to a potent line-up and solid starting pitching. I believe the Blue Jays have the edge on the mound and at the plate tonight in this Game 1 showdown with AL East rival Baltimore.
Henderson Alvarez is one of the most underrated starters in the league this season. He's getting his first real chance to start from Opening Day and he is certainly making the most of it. Alvarez is 0-1 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.035 WHIP, allowing just 20 base runners in 19 1/3 innings.
Tommy Hunter gets the ball for the Orioles, and I expect him to continue to struggle in this one. Hunter is 1-1 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three starts this season. He has already allowed 6 home runs in 18 2/3 innings.
Hunter gave up 5 runs, 4 earned, and 4 homers in 6 innings against Toronto on April 13th. Alvarez allowed just 3 earned runs and 7 base runners in 7 innings against the Orioles the following day on April 14th. Alvarez is now 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in three career starts against Baltimore, while Hunter is 1-3 with a 7.40 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in seven career starts against Toronto.
The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Toronto is 13-3 in their last 16 games as a road favorite. The Orioles are 28-59 in their last 87 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Blue Jays are 48-23 in the last 71 meetings with the Orioles. Roll with the Blue Jays Tuesday.
|04-23-12||Houston Astros v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5||5-6||Loss||-100||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+104)
Zach Greinke has been on an unbelievable home run since coming to Milwaukee last season. The Brewers will try to win their 18th consecutive game at Miller Park when Greinke starts as they open a series with the Houston Astros on Monday night.
Greinke will make his first home start against the Astros (6-10) after going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts in Houston last season - his first with Milwaukee. Since joining the club, the 2009 AL Cy Young winner is 12-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 17 starts at Miller Park. It's the longest home winning streak in the majors.
Greinke is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two home starts this season. Greinke is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in three career starts against Houston. Lucas Harrell has posted a 4.22 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in two road starts this season for the Astros.
Greinke is 19-0 against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. His teams are winning by an average score of 5.6 to 3.0 in this spot. I like the Brewers to win by multiple runs over the lowly Astros behind Greinke in this one. Take Milwaukee on the Run Line Monday.
|04-23-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. New Jersey Nets +9.5||Top||105-87||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Jersey Nets +9.5
The New Jersey Nets are showing solid value as a 9.5-point home underdog to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. I believe this line has been inflated due to the fact that Philly can clinch a playoff spot with a win. New Jersey does not want to see them do it on their home floor, so I look for the Nets to put up a good fight here.
The Nets have shown they aren't going to quit by winning six of their last 13 games overall. They have played six straight playoff contenders, including Philadelphia twice. They split both meetings with the 76ers, and this team is certainly battle-tested right now.
Philly has not handled the pressure of trying to make the playoffs very well at all. The 76ers have lost seven of their last 11 games overall. While Philadelphia looks to the future, New Jersey (22-42) will honor its past in its final home game in the Garden State after 35 years. They'll be moving to Brooklyn next year, so the Nets certainly want to finish a winner in their final home game in New Jersey.
The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The 76ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Bet New Jersey Monday.
|04-21-12||Atlanta Braves -120 v. Arizona Diamondbacks||3-2||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -120
The Atlanta Braves have simply been rolling. This team has gotten over their September collapse, and their slow start to this season. Atlanta is feeling good right now, and I'm backing them again tonight because of it.
Atlanta is 9-1 in their last 10 games overall. The Braves have the edge on the mound once again tonight with Tommy Hanson over Joe Saunders. Hanson is 33-24 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 80 career starts. Saunders sports a 4.11 ERA and 1.369 WHIP in 163 career starts.
The Braves are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Atlanta is 7-0 in Hanson's last 7 starts vs. National League West. The Braves are 4-0 in Hanson's last 4 starts as a road favorite. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. These four trends make for a 24-0 system backing the Braves. Take Atlanta Saturday.
|04-21-12||Denver Nuggets v. Phoenix Suns -4||Top||118-107||Loss||-105||7 h 20 m||Show|
20* Suns/Nuggets ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Phoenix -4
The Phoenix Suns would be the No. 8 seed if the season were to end today. They are tied with ninth-place Utah at 33-30, but own the tiebreaker. Obviously, tonight's game against the Denver Nuggets is huge for Phoenix.
The Suns have been great since the All-Star Break, posting a 19-10 record. That includes a 12-3 mark at home. They showed great resiliency two nights ago as they trailed the Clippers most of the way, but found a way to win 93-90 in the end. That win gives this team a lot of confidence going forward.
Phoenix has won 12 of their last 13 home games against Denver. The Nuggets only have one win in Phoenix since 2004, so home-court advantage has obviously been huge in this series. The Suns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Bet Phoenix Saturday.
|04-21-12||Texas Rangers G1 v. Detroit Tigers G1 -105||10-4||Loss||-105||9 h 31 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -105 (Game 1)
Off an embarrassing 10-3 home loss to the Texas Rangers Thursday, I have the Detroit Tigers bouncing back with a blowout victory of their own Saturday. While the Rangers had the advantage on the mound Thursday, I believe the Tigers have a huge edge on the bump tonight.
Detroit starter Rick Porcello had an excellent spring training, and he's carried over that success into the regular season. Porcello is 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.886 WHIP through two starts this season, allowing just three earned runs and 13 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.
While Matt Harrison is off to a solid start this year for Texas as well, he has never fared well against the Tigers. Harrison is 0-4 with a 6.82 ERA and 2.021 WHIP in six career starts against Detroit. Plus, he has never faces a Tigers line-up as potent as the 2012 version.
Porcello is 16-3 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a road underdog. The Tigers are 54-25 in their last 79 home games vs. a left-handed starter, including 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a South Paw. Detroit is 22-4 in their last 26 during Game 2 of a series. Take the Tigers Saturday.
|04-20-12||Philadelphia: C Hamels -135 v. San Diego: E Volquez||4-1||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia Phillies -135
I'm siding with the Philadelphia Phillies once again Friday against one of the worst teams in baseball. This is a very reasonable price to back an Ace like Cole Hamels, who will shut down the struggling San Diego Padres tonight.
San Diego is off to a 3-11 start this season while hitting .213 and scoring just 3.4 runs/game. Things aren't going to get any better with Edinson Volquez on the mound. Volquez is 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in three starts this season, and he just hasn't been able to break through in the majors.
Hamels is a proven winner who went 14-9 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 31 starts last season. He is off to a decent start this year, going 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.217 WHIP. Hamels has owned San Diego, going 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.827 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Padres. He has given up one earned run over 24 innings in his last three starts in this series.
The Phillies are 50-22 in Hamels' last 72 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Philly is 7-1 in Hamels' last 8 starts vs. National League West. The Padres are 17-42 in their last 59 games as an underdog. The Phillies are 25-4 in the last 29 meetings in San Diego. Roll with Philadelphia Friday.
|04-20-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 203||Top||97-121||Loss||-110||10 h 30 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Spurs ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 203
The Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs will be playing for a 3rd time in 10 days Friday. The familiarity between these teams is through the roof right now, which should lead to a defensive battle tonight. Both teams will be bringing the intensity on defense considering this is an important game for both squads.
San Antonio is trying to fend off Oklahoma City for the No. 1 seed in the West. Los Angeles is trying to stay in front of the L.A. Clippers for the Pacific Division title, and the No. 3 seed in the West. Kobe Bryant is expected to return tonight for L.A., so I look for the Lakers to slow it down and try to run their offense through him.
These teams always seem to play in low-scoring affairs when they get together. Twelve straight meetings between the Lakers and Spurs have seen 203 or less combined points. In fact, 23 of the last 24 meetings between these teams have seen 203 or less combined points. That makes for 23-1 and 12-0 systems backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set, which is currently up to 204 at most books. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|04-19-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 198||Top||90-93||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
25* Clippers/Suns NBA PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Phoenix -2/UNDER 198
While I am taking Phoenix to cover the spread tonight, there's no question that both teams will be tired in this one. I just think that the Suns have the extra motivation they need to play through the tiredness, plus they are the deeper team so they'll handle this situation better.
Both Phoenix and Los Angeles will be playing the second of a back-to-back, and their 3rd game in 4 days. This will certainly hurt the Clippers more as their bench is much thinner than that of the Suns. Given the circumstance, I have no doubt that these teams will take part in a defensive battle as points are hard to come by.
The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. That includes 3-0 in the first three meetings this season where these teams have combined for 159, 178 and 189 points, respectively. Given what's at stake, I fully expect both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively.
The UNDER is 14-2 in Suns last 16 Thursday games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Suns last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. As previously state, the UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. These four trends make for a 28-2 (93%) System backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|04-19-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns -2||Top||90-93||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
25* Clippers/Suns NBA PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Phoenix -2/UNDER 198
I'm siding with the Phoenix Suns tonight in a game that is much more important for them than it is for the Los Angeles Clippers. While the Clippers are only worried about playoff positioning after already clinching their spot, the Suns are still trying to earn a spot in the postseason.
Phoenix is currently in ninth place in the Western Conference standings, just a half-game behind the Utah Jazz for the 8th and final spot. To say this is a must-win would be an understatement. Phoenix has handled the pressure well, going 18-10 since the All-Star break, which includes an 11-3 home record.
The Clippers have basically been a punching bag for the Suns in recent years. Phoenix has won 13 of the last 15 meetings in this series. The Suns have won nine straight home meetings with the Clippers as well. They have not lost a home game against L.A. since 2007. Bet the Suns Thursday.
|04-19-12||Philadelphia: V Worley -119 v. San Diego: J Wieland||2-0||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
15* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -119
I'll gladly back the Philadelphia Phillies as a small road favorite over the lowly San Diego Padres. Once again, Philly starter Vance Worthy is not getting the respect he deserves this season simply because the Big 3 of Halladay, Lee and Hamels get all of the attention.
Worley went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.230 WHIP while striking out 119 batters in 131.2 innings for the Phillies last season. He was one of the most profitable pitchers in baseball to back last year, and he will be again this season if he continues to go under the radar like this.
Worley is off to a respectable start this season with a 3.75 ERA through two starts. The same cannot be said for San Diego starter Joe Wieland, who gave up 6 earned runs and 3 homers over 5 innings in a 1-6 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in his first outing.
The Phillies are 38-15 in their last 53 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Philly is 4-0 in Worley's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. San Diego is 17-41 in their last 58 games as an underdog. The Phillies are 24-4 in the last 28 meetings in San Diego. Roll with the Phillies Thursday.
|04-18-12||Cincinnati Reds v. St.Louis Cardinals -121||1-11||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -121
The St. Louis Cardinals have picked up right where they left off last season. St. Louis is 8-3 this season and on a mission to prove that they can still be a contender without Albert Pujols. I'll back them as a small home favorite here tonight against the Cincinnati Reds.
Cincinnati made the postseason two years ago, but they just haven't been the same team since. The Reds are off to a 4-7 start this season due to poor hitting. Cincinnati is batting .205 and scoring 2.9 runs/game, while St. Louis is hitting .293 and putting up 5.4 runs/game.
Cincinnati starter Mat Latos is 0-1 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in two starts this season. Latos is 1-2 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.101 WHIP in three career starts against the Cardinals. He has given up 15 earned runs and 22 base runners over 5 1/3 innings in his two starts at St. Louis.
Jaime Garcia remains one of the most underrated starters in the game. Garcia is 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.313 WHIP in eight career starts against Cincinnati. He has given up just six earned runs over 24 2/3 innings in his four home starts against the Reds. The Cardinals are 4-0 in those four games, so they have never lost when Garcia starts at home vs. Cincinnati. Roll with the Cardinals Wednesday.
|04-18-12||New York Knicks v. New Jersey Nets +8.5||Top||104-95||Loss||-107||8 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +8.5
The New Jersey Nets are showing solid value tonight as an 8.5-point home underdog to the New York Knicks. I believe the New York Knicks are in for a big letdown tonight after their 118-110 win over the Boston Celtics last night.
New Jersey has shown that they are going to play out their season. The Nets have gone a respectable 7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They nearly beat the Miami Heat on Monday, losing 98-101 despite playing without Deron Williams.
New York was fired up to face Boston last night after having struggled mightily against the Celtics in the past. The Knicks hit a ridiculous 19-of-32 (59.4 percent) from 3-point range, and still only won by eight points. There's no way they shoot that well on consecutive nights.
The Knicks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a road favorite. The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. New Jersey is going to have no problem getting up to face their crosstown rivals. Bet the Nets Wednesday.
|04-18-12||Chicago Bulls -12 v. Charlotte Bobcats||100-68||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -12
Following a very bad loss to the Washington Wizards on Monday, the Chicago Bulls will bounce back with a blowout victory over the NBA's worst team in the Charlotte Bobcats. Whether or not Derrick Rose plays tonight the Bulls are going to run away with this one.
Chicago still has a lot to play for as they want to clinch the No. 1 seed in the East. They also want the No. 1 overall seed in the league, so they're not about to take the Bobcats lightly. The Bulls took care of business in their last meeting with Charlotte on February 10th as they rolled to a 95-64 road victory.
The Bobcats are just 7-53 on the season and it's clear by watching them that they simply don't have the talent to compete in this league. Charlotte is 0-17 SU & 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Not only do they not have the talent, but the Bobcats have packed it in.
The Bulls are 8-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. Charlotte is 0-8 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points this season. The Bobcats are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. These four trends make for a 28-0 system backing Chicago. Take the Bulls Wednesday.
|04-17-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 199.5||Top||112-91||Loss||-110||11 h 27 m||Show|
25* Spurs/Lakers TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Spurs/Lakers UNDER 199.5
I have the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs playing part in a defensive battle tonight. These teams match up very well against one another defensively, and that has certainly been proven throughout the years.
Eleven straight meetings between the Lakers and Spurs have seen 197 or less combined points. In fact, 22 of the last 23 meetings between these teams have seen 199 or less combined points. That makes for 22-1 and 11-0 systems backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.
The Lakers are likely to be without Kobe Bryant again tonight. Without Bryant on the floor, the Lakers certainly struggle offensively. They also try and slow down their offense and run it through their two big men in Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. This slows the tempo and makes for more of a half-court game.
Los Angeles just beat San Antonio 98-84 on the road on April 11th for 182 combined points. The Spurs are 82-47 to the UNDER revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite since 1996. The Lakers are 9-1 to the UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The UNDER is 20-6 in Spurs last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 20-6 in Lakers last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is also 20-6 in the last 26 meetings in this series. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.