|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-29-12||Ohio v. Oklahoma -3||63-74||Win||100||10 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Oklahoma -3
The Oklahoma Sooners remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. Head coach Lon Kruger returned all five starters from last season, and this is going to be one of the best teams in the Big 12 this season.
Oklahoma is off to a solid 7-3 start, but it is coming off a one-point loss to SF Austin State. It will be highly motivated to bounce back from that loss, and it is undervalued because of it.
Ohio is 8-4 this season, but a closer look at its losses shows that this team clearly has problems. It has road losses to Robert Morris (76-84), Memhis (58-84) and UMass (76-85) as well as a home loss to Richmond.
The Bobcats are 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by 14.3 points/game. They don't have a good win yet this season. Ohio is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.
|12-29-12||George Mason v. South Florida -2.5||57-61||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -2.5
The South Florida Bulls remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. They made a great run to the NCAA Tournament and actually won a game there last year, and they have several key pieces back from that team.
The Bulls have opened 7-3 this season while winning five of their last six contests. The includes a 6-2 mark at home where they are outscoring opponents by 8.1 points/game.
George Mason is just 7-4 on the year. It has losses to Bucknell, New Mexico, Maryland and Northern Iowa. It is coming off a big win at Richmond, but I believe that victory has it overvalued heading into this one.
South Florida is 16-4 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points since 1997. George Mason is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games following a S.U. win. The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bulls are 8-1 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. Take South Florida Saturday.
|12-29-12||Oregon State -3 v. Texas||27-31||Loss||-115||48 h 9 m||Show|
15* Oregon State/Texas Alamo Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Oregon State -3
The Oregon State Beavers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That is evident by the fact that they are an impressive 8-4 against the spread in all games, making backers a lot of money at the pay window this year. Their only three losses came on the road against Washington and Stanford by a combined 7 points, and at home against Oregon.
Texas is not playing well coming into this game having dropped two straight against TCU and Kansas State. It managed a combined 37 total points in the losses while committing seven turnovers. It continues to struggle at the quarterback position as head coach Mack Brown keeps going back and forth between David Ash and Case McCoy.
Oregon State is a sound football team on both sides of the ball. It is scoring 33.0 points per game while ranking 34th in the country in total offense at 442.7 yards per game. It is allowing just 19.7 points per game while ranking 33rd in the land in total defense at 353.7 yards per game.
The biggest strength on the Beavers
|12-29-12||West Virginia v. Syracuse +4||Top||14-38||Win||100||45 h 39 m||Show|
20* WVU/Syracuse Pinstripe Bowl No-Brainer on Syracuse +4
The Syracuse Orange have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They gave away some games early, but really came on strong late. They won three straight games to close out the season with a blowout 45-26 home victory over Louisville, followed by impressive road wins at Missouri and Temple. Louisville won the Big East and will be playing in a BCS bowl.
A closer look at the numbers indicates that the Orange are one of the better teams in the country. They rank 21st in the land in total offense at 473.4 yards per game and a respectable 51st in total defense at 385.1 yards per game. They have a huge edge on defense considering West Virginia ranks just 110th in total yards allowed at 469.6.
Syracuse has a mental edge over former Big East rivalry West Virginia having won each of the last two meetings over the past two seasons. It won 19-14 on the road as a 13.5-point underdog in 2010, then came back with an even more impressive 49-23 home victory as a 14-point dog in 2011. Ryan Nassib threw for 229 yards and four touchdowns in the win, and he
|12-29-12||Virginia Tech +10 v. Brigham Young||71-97||Loss||-106||4 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia Tech +10
This line is an overreaction from the results of last game for both teams. Virginia Tech suffered its worst loss of the season 52-88 to Colorado State, while BYU rolled over Northern Arizona 84-54.
At 9-3 on the season, I still believe Virginia Tech is one of the most underrated teams in the country. BYU doesn't really have a good win all season. It lost to Florida State (70-88), Notre Dame (68-78), Iowa State (62-83) and Baylor (64-79). The Cougars have no business being a double-digit favorite in this one.
BYU is 0-6 ATS in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Cougars are 4-17 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. BYU is 1-10 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons. Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.
|12-28-12||Toronto Raptors v. New Orleans Hornets -2.5||104-97||Loss||-107||8 h 18 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Hornets -2.5
The New Orleans Hornets are way undervalued due to their recent 11-game losing streak. Seven of those 11 losses came by 7 points or less, so they just weren't getting the breaks. They beat the Orlando Magic 97-94 last time out on Wednesday to put an end to the skid, and I look for them to go on a nice run here with the Raptors and Bobcats up next.
Toronto comes into this game way overvalued after having won five of its last six games overall. Four of those wins came at home against the lowly Magic, Pistons, Rockets and Mavericks. They also won at Cleveland, but were torched 80-100 at San Antonio on Wednesday to put an end to their five-game winning streak. They should be a much bigger dog tonight on the road against the Hornets.
The Raptors are just 2-15 SU & 6-11 ATS on the road this season. They are getting outscored by a whopping 10.5 points/game away from home thus far in 2012. Bet the Hornets Friday.
|12-28-12||Miami Heat v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 191.5||99-109||Loss||-105||8 h 48 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pistons UNDER 191.5
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Miami Heat and Detroit Pistons. Miami is going to be without second-leading scorer Dwyane Wade (suspension), and it could be without their best shooter Ray Allen (shoulder), who is listed as questionable.
A look at recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. Miami beat Detroit 98-75 on April 8th in their most recent showdown for 173 combined points. The Heat topped the Pistons 88-73 for 161 combined points in their previous meeting on March 23rd.
Detroit has combined for 188 or fewer points with five of its last six opponents. The only exception was a double-overtime loss at Atlanta last time out. They combined for 165 points with Indiana, 164 with the Los Angeles Clippers, 188 with Toronto, 168 with Washington and 185 again with Washington.
The Pistons are 18-4 to the UNDER in their last 22 games after allowing 120 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 7-1 in Miami's last 8 games overall. The UNDER is 10-2-1 in Heat last 13 Friday games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-28-12||Charlotte Bobcats v. Brooklyn Nets -9.5||81-97||Win||100||8 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -9.5
The Brooklyn Nets have just made a coaching change amidst their poor run of 10 losses in their last 13 games. Avery Johnson has been fired, replaced by veteran head coach P.J. Carlesimo. I believe this move will spark new life into the Nets and give them a big boost tonight.
This is still one of the most talented teams in the league, and it's only a matter of time before the right coach puts it all together. The Nets have an excellent chance of working out the kinks against a Charlotte Bobcats team that is arguably the worst in the league once again in 2012-13.
Charlotte has lost 16 straight games heading into this contest. It is just 7-21 on the season, including 2-10 SU & 4-8 ATS in 12 road games. It is getting outscored by an average of 14.3 points/game away from home this season.
The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Nets are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 1 days rest. Charlotte is 11-32 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats are 3-16 ATS in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Nets Friday.
|12-28-12||Rutgers v. Virginia Tech -2||Top||10-13||Win||100||48 h 8 m||Show|
20* Rutgers/VA Tech Russell Athletic Bowl No-Brainer on Virginia Tech -2
The Hokies simply underachieved this season after coming into the season with lofty expectations. They did manage to rebound down the stretch, winning their final two games against Boston College and Virginia to become bowl eligible. It would have been three in a row if not for a last-second loss to Florida State by a final of 22-28, which was a game that showed what this team is capable of.
Rutgers is deflated following two straight losses to close out the season. It played Louisville for all the marbles in its season finale on November 29th, but blew a double-digit lead to fall 17-20. That loss cost the Scarlet Knights a trip to the Sugar Bowl against Florida. These players will have hard time getting motivated to play in the Russell Athletic Bowl after letting such a big opportunity slip by.
|12-28-12||Ohio +7 v. Louisiana Monroe||45-14||Win||100||45 h 37 m||Show|
15* Ohio/ULM Independence Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Ohio +7
Following three straight losses, there
|12-27-12||Boston Celtics +8.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||77-106||Loss||-105||11 h 21 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston +8.5
The Los Angeles Clippers are way overvalued right now due to their 14-game winning streak. There's no question that it's an impressive run, but now is the time to fade them against a gritty Boston Celtics team that will simply want this one more.
Boston is coming off one of its strongest performances of the season, and it should be getting more respect than it is from oddsmakers because of it. The Celtics went into Brooklyn and came away with a 93-76 road victory on Christmas Day. They limited the Nets to 40.6 percent shooting while forcing 20 turnovers.
Boston has won three of its last four meetings with Los Angeles. It is 2-0 in its last two visits to Los Angeles, including a 94-85 victory as a 5.5-point underdog in the most recent meeting between these teams. In fact, it hasn't lost any of its last five trips to L.A. by more than 2 points.
The underdog is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings dating back to 2009. Take the Celtics Thursday.
|12-27-12||Baylor +3 v. UCLA Bruins||49-26||Win||100||29 h 38 m||Show|
15* Baylor/UCLA Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on Baylor +3
The Bears are playing the better football coming into this game. They were absolutely sensational to finish out the season, winning four of their final five games while going a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the process. Their only loss during this stretch came at Oklahoma 34-42 as a 21-point underdog. They beat Kansas 41-14, then-No. 1 Kansas State 52-24, Texas Tech 52-45, and Oklahoma State 41-34, so it
|12-27-12||Cincinnati v. Duke +8||Top||48-34||Loss||-110||25 h 8 m||Show|
20* Bowl GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +8
The Blue Devils are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game this season. This is their first trip to a bowl game since 1994. Head coach David Cutcliffe has his best team in five years with the program, and that really showed this season. These players want to be here more than the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Cincinnati had high hopes coming into the season of winning the Big East to play in a BCS bowl game. That didn
|12-26-12||Golden State Warriors v. Utah Jazz UNDER 204||94-83||Win||100||9 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Jazz UNDER 204
I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz. The biggest reason I like this UNDER is the fact that Utah is without starting point guard Mo Williams, who is averaging 12.9 points and 6.7 assists per game.
Without Williams, Utah's offense won't be very efficient. They'll slow it down even more and look to get the ball inside to Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap one just about every possession. The Jazz have been playing in many low-scoring games of late. In fact, each of their last seven contests have seen 195 or less combined points.
Golden State is coming off three straight high-scoring games, including a 115-118 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in overtime last time out. That's a big reason why this total has been inflated tonight. I look for Utah to control to the tempo at home and for this game to be slowed down to a snail's pace without Williams out there running the show. The Jazz are allowing just 94.3 points/game at home this year.
The Warriors are 15-4 to the UNDER in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Golden State is 15-4 to the UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 28-9 to the UNDER in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games since 1996.
These teams have combined for 203 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings. The UNDER is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings overall, including 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Utah dating back to 2009. The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The UNDER is 7-0 in Jazz last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Warriors last 17 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|12-26-12||Toronto Raptors v. San Antonio Spurs -13||80-100||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -13
The San Antonio Spurs have been absolutely dominant at home this season. They are 10-2 at home where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 12.1 points/game. That includes a 129-91 victory over Dallas last time out on December 23rd, and this team is even more dangerous when given a lot of rest.
Toronto is overvalued right now due to its 5-game winning streak. Those five victories came over the Mgaic, Pistons, Cavs, Rockets and Mavericks with four of them coming at home. The Raptors have been atrocious on the road this season. They are 2-14 SU & 6-10 ATS on the road, getting outscored by an average of 10.0 points/game.
The Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days rest. San Antonio is 20-5-2 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The 35-13-4 ATS in their last 52 games following a S.U. win. San Antonio is 36-14-3 ATS in its last 53 home games. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Spurs Wednesday.
|12-26-12||Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky OVER 57||Top||24-21||Loss||-110||68 h 7 m||Show|
20* CMU/WKU Pizza Bowl Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 57
I look for a shootout in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl between Central Michigan and Western Kentucky Wednesday. This game will be played inside a dome at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. That means the scoring conditions will be optimal for these two solid offenses.
Central Michigan really picked up the pace at the end of the season offensively, scoring 30 or more points in six straight games to close out the year. QB Ryan Radcliff is completing 59.0 percent of his passes for 2,895 yards with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. RB Zurlon Tipton has rushed for 1,391 yards and 19 scores.
Western Kentucky put up an average of 28.7 points/game this season. RB Antonio Andrews will get plenty of touches as he makes a bid to set a single-season NCAA record for all-purpose yards. Andrews, who rushed for 1,609 yards and 11 touchdowns, also has 957 return yards and 2,977 overall. The junior needs 274 yards to surpass Barry Sanders' mark of 3,250 from his 1988 Heisman Trophy-winning season.
While the Hilltoppers did have a solid defense with three players earning all-conference honors. However, the anchor of that unit - Sun Belt defensive player of the year and defensive end Quanterus Smith - is out due to a knee injury suffered Nov. 17 against Louisiana-Lafayette. He had an FBS-leading 1.25 sacks per game and 12 1/2 overall in 10 games.
Western Kentucky gave up an average of 31.5 points/game over their last four games heading into the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl. Central Michigan gave up 33.3 points/game this season while ranking 93rd in the country in total defense (441.2 yards/game).
Central Michigan is 7-0 to the OVER in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. The Chippewas are 6-0 to the OVER in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. CMU is 6-0 to the OVER in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons. These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl Wednesday.
|12-26-12||New Orleans Hornets +3 v. Orlando Magic||97-94||Win||100||7 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +3
The New Orleans Hornets are highly motivated for a win tonight. They blew a 21-point lead to Indiana last time out to lose 75-81 as the Pacers handed them their 11th straight defeat. They have simply not been able to get the breaks to go their way as seven of those 11 losses have come by 7 points or less.
A Christmas Break is just what this New Orleans needed to regroup. While the Hornets are almost back at full strength health-wise, the Magic are not. They just loss Glen Davis to a shoulder injury for the 4-6 weeks. That is a huge blow considering Davis was second on the team in scoring (16.0 PPG) and second in rebounding (7.9 RPG).
New Orleans is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 road games following 4 or more consecutive losses. The Hornets are 28-15 ATS in their last 43 games as a road underdog. Orlando is 0-7 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. The Hornets are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Bet New Orleans Wednesday.
|12-25-12||Denver Nuggets +7 v. Los Angeles Clippers||100-112||Loss||-107||24 h 34 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +7
The Denver Nuggets are showing great value as a 7-point road underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers Tuesday. Los Angeles is way overvalued due to its current 13-game winning streak and counting. The Nuggets are one of the most underrated teams in the league due to their mediocre 15-13 start against an absolutely brutal schedule.
Denver has played 19 of its first 28 games on the road this season. They've done an excellent job of posting a winning record despite that schedule, and they are playing their best basketball of late. The Nuggets have won four of their last five, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven. They would love nothing more than to put an end to the Clippers' winning streak.
The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 32-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Denver is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.
|12-25-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Miami Heat UNDER 206||97-103||Win||100||19 h 40 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Heat NBA Finals Rematch on UNDER 206
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat are very familiar with one another after playing in the NBA Finals this past June. Their series went to five games with Miami winning the final four to win the championship. Four of those five meeting saw 202 or less combined points, so they were typically low-scoring. I look for this rematch in the regular season to follow suit with less than 206 combined points by game's end.
Both teams have been very solid defensively. Oklahoma City is giving up 96.2 points/game overall, and it are combineing with their opponents to average 196.9 points/game on the road this season. Miami is giving up 97.4 points/game overall, and it is combining with its opponents to average 200.8 points/game in all games this year. As you can see, both teams are combining with their opponents to average well less than this posted total.
Miami is 18-4 to the UNDER after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons. Oklahoma City is 8-1 to the UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat's last 5 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|12-25-12||New York Knicks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 214.5||Top||94-100||Win||100||16 h 55 m||Show|
20* Knicks/Lakers Christmas Day No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5
Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers. These teams are very familiar with one another after playing each other recently. New York beat Los Angeles 116-107 on December 13th less than two weeks ago. Because of that high-scoring affair, oddsmakers have inflated this total in the rematch, which I anticipate to be much more lower scoring.
Both teams know how to defend, especially the Knicks, who are giving up just 96.5 points/game on the season. The Lakers have been defending well at home this year, limiting opponents to just 96.1 points/game. They are scoring 101.5 points/game at home, so they are combining with their opponents to average 197.6 points/game. New York is combining with its opponents to average 198.7 points/game on the road this year. As you can see, both numbers are well below the posted total in this one.
The UNDER is 42-19-1 in Lakers last 62 vs. Eastern Conference. The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Lakers last 52 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Lakers are 15-5 to the UNDER after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|12-24-12||SMU v. Fresno State -11.5||Top||43-10||Loss||-101||21 h 52 m||Show|
20* Fresno/SMU Hawaii Bowl No-Brainer on Fresno State -11.5
The Bulldogs have been the best team in the country at the pay window this season. Not only did they go 9-3 and while clinching a share of the Mountain West title, they also went an incredible 11-1 against the spread in the process. This team has certainly been going under the radar all season.
They are outscoring opponents by an average of 18.0 points per game, so they
|12-23-12||San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks +1||13-42||Win||100||73 h 48 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle +1
The Seahawks have a ton to play for in this one. They would be the No. 5 seed in the NFC if the season were to end today, and they are trying to fend off several 8-6 teams in their conference. They can also pull to within one-half game of the 49ers for the NFC West division lead with a victory heading into Week 17.
Seattle has been playing its best football in the second half of the season, especially over the last two weeks. It has won five of its last six games overall with four of those victories coming by double-digits. That includes a 58-0 home victory over Arizona on December 9th, and a 50-17 triumph in Toronto against Buffalo last Sunday.
The Seahawks are a perfect 6-0 straight up and 6-0 against the spread at home this season, yet they are an underdog in this one. They are scoring 30.2 points per game and allowing just 11.5 points per game at home this year. As you can see, they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.7 points per game inside of CenturyLink Field in 2012.
This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on home teams (SEATTLE)
|12-23-12||Chicago Bears -5 v. Arizona Cardinals||28-13||Win||100||68 h 26 m||Show|
15* Bears/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -5
The Chicago Bears are showing arguably their best value of the season Sunday as only a 5-point favorite at Arizona. The Bears are undervalued right now due to a stretch of poor play heading into this one, while the Cardinals are overvalued after a big win last week.
The Bears have lost five of their last six games overall, but all six of those contests came against playoff contenders. They played the Texans, 49ers, Packers, Seahawks and Vikings twice during this stretch. With so much still to play for, there's no question the they will be laying it all on the line Sunday.
Finally, Chicago gets a break in its schedule in Week 16 against the hapless Arizona Cardinals (5-9). This is the same Cardinals' team that had lost nine games in a row before a 38-10 home victory over the Detroit Lions last week. They don't have much reason to show up for this game with nothing other than pride to play for.
That win over the Lions was far from the blowout that it appeared on the scoreboard. Arizona only gained 196 total yards while giving up 312 total yards. It's really hard to score 38 points when only gaining 196 yards, but the Lions simply gift-wrapped the Cardinals most of their points by committing four turnovers.
That's important considering Arizona is 0-8 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 18.9 points per game. Bet the Bears Sunday.
|12-23-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Brooklyn Nets -5.5||92-95||Loss||-110||5 h 0 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -5.5
The Brooklyn Nets are highly motivated for a victory here Sunday. They have lost three straight and eight of 10 coming in to sit just one game over .500 on the season. There's no question that they want to put an end to this skid.
Brooklyn has had plenty of time to stew over its recent losing streak. It hasn't played since Wednesday, December 19th so it has had three days' rest in between games. The Nets have had time to regroup and prepare for the 76ers, which will make the difference in this one.
Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Philly is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. These four trends combine for a 23-2 (92%) System backing Brooklyn. Roll with the Nets Sunday.
|12-23-12||Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3||Top||13-10||Loss||-115||66 h 3 m||Show|
25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -3
Trailing the Bengals by one game for the 6th and final wild-card spot in the AFC, this is a must-win game for the Steelers. A loss and they would be eliminated from postseason contention. This team has been great in these situations while winning two Super Bowls under Ben Roethlisberger.
Pittsburgh simply owns this series with Cincinnati. It has won five straight meetings while going a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the process. Dating back further, it has won 14 of the last 18 meetings between these teams.
The Steelers topped the Bengals 24-17 on the road in their first meeting of the season on October 21st. This game was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Steelers outgained the Bengals 431-185 for the game. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 285 yards and a touchdown, while Jonathan Dwyer rushed for 122 yards in the win.
Pittsburgh is 46-23 ATS in its last 69 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. It is outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game in this spot.
The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 8-1 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Bengals are 0-7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC North foes, including 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Steelers. These four trends combine for a 24-1 (96%) system backing Pittsburgh. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|12-23-12||New Orleans Saints v. Dallas Cowboys -2.5||34-31||Loss||-110||65 h 25 m||Show|
15* Saints/Cowboys NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas -2.5
The Cowboys are playing their best football of the season right now when the games have mattered most. Looking dead to the water after a 3-5 start, Dallas has reeled off five wins in its last six games to get to 8-6 on the season. It is now tied with Washington and New York atop the NFC East division.
At 6-8 on the season, the New Orleans Saints do not have much to play for. Their only real motivation is to play for pride and for the role of spoiler. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have everything to play for with the division title or a wild-card berth at stake.
Dallas has the superior defense in this one by far. It ranks a respectable 14th in the league in total defense at 340.3 yards per game allowed. New Orleans is yielding 27.1 points per game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 433.6 yards per game. The Cowboys will come up with more stops in this one, which will be the difference.
This play falls into a system that is 32-12 (72.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS)
|12-23-12||Minnesota Vikings v. Houston Texans -7.5||23-6||Loss||-110||65 h 10 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans -7.5
The Houston Texans have everything to play for in this one. With a win against the overrated Minnesota Vikings Sunday, the Texans will clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That means they are playing for a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Minnesota comes in way overvalued due to back-to-back wins over the Chicago Bears and St. Louis Rams. Both of those wins were gift-wrapped to the Vikings considering Chicago outgained them 438-248, while St. Louis outgained them 432-322. The Vikings won't get away with such sloppy defense against the Texans this time around.
Stopping Adrian Peterson is the key to stopping Minnesota. In addition to owning the AFC's best record, Houston (12-2) has the fifth-ranked run defense in the NFL, allowing 93.2 yards per game and a league-low three rushing touchdowns. The Vikings rank last in the NFL in passing offense (168.1 yards/game), so this is a terrible match-up for them.
Houston is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 17.5 points/game. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by 17.9 points/game. Roll with the Texans Sunday.
|12-22-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. Golden State Warriors||118-115||Win||100||13 h 52 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles PK
The Los Angeles Lakers come in fresh and ready to go. They will be working on three days' rest since last beating the Charlotte Bobcats at home on December 18th. This extra practice time will do wonders for the Lakers as they continue to try and get down Mike D'Antoni's system.
While the Lakers come in fresh, the Golden State Warriors will be extremely exhausted. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 5 days, and their 6th game in 9 days tonight. They won't be able to match the energy level of the Lakers in this one.
Los Angeles has simply owned this series with Golden State. It has won 17 of the last 18 meetings dating back to 2008, winning 94% of the time. Given the situation and their dominance in this series, the Lakers should be a heavy favorite tonight and they're not.
This play falls into a system that is 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Roll with the Lakers Saturday.
|12-22-12||Atlanta Falcons v. Detroit Lions +4.5||31-18||Loss||-110||48 h 28 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Lions NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit +4.5
This line is simply be an overreaction from what happened last week. Obviously, the Falcons blew out the defending Super Bowl champs, while the Lions were upset in blowout fashion by one of the worst teams in the league.
|12-22-12||Western Kentucky +21.5 v. Louisville||55-78||Loss||-106||11 h 47 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Western Kentucky +21.5
The Louisville Cardinals are in a huge letdown spot here Saturday in this neutral court showdown with Western Kentucky played at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. They have arch rival Kentucky on deck and will be looking ahead to that contest.
Western Kentucky is a solid team at 8-4. It is coming off back-to-back road losses to a pair of very good teams in Murray State and Virginia Commonwealth. Those two games have the Hilltoppers battle-tested an hungry for a victory heading into this showdown with Louisville.
This play falls into a system that is 25-7 (78.1%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 20 or more points (W KENTUCKY) - after a blowout loss by 30 points or more against opponent after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games. Bet Western Kentucky Saturday.
|12-22-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. Houston Rockets +1||96-121||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets +1
The Houston Rockets are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this contest with the Memphis Grizzlies. They have won four of their last five games overall, which includes a 109-96 victory at New York.
While the Rockets come in on two days' rest, the Memphis Grizzlies will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. There's no question that Houston will be the fresher team, and with the way it is playing right now, it should be laying points instead of being the underdog.
Houston is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 6.3 points/game. Bet the Rockets Saturday.
|12-22-12||Bradley v. Virginia Tech -2.5||65-66||Loss||-102||10 h 13 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech -2.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They should be a heavier favorite tonight over Bradley in this neutral court showdown at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, NV.
The Hokies opened 7-0 before losing two of their last three games to West Virginia and Georgia Southern by a combined 6 points. That loss to Southern last time out is really not sitting well with Virginia Tech, and I look for its players to take out their frustration on the Bradley Braves tonight.
While Virginia Tech has had six days to stew over that loss to Georgia Southern and prepare for Bradley, the Braves are working on little rest. This will be the 3rd game in 6 days for Bradley, which puts it at a huge disadvantage in rest and preparation.
The Braves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. The Hokies are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Hokies. Take Virginia Tech Saturday.
|12-22-12||Washington +6 v. Boise State||Top||26-28||Win||100||67 h 36 m||Show|
20* Washington/Boise State Las Vegas Bowl No-Brainer on Washington +6
The Washington Huskies played a much tougher schedule than the Broncos did this season, and they are more battle-tested heading into this contest because of it. This will arguably be Boise State
|12-21-12||Southern Methodist -2.5 v. Wagner||53-63||Loss||-106||9 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on SMU -2.5
The SMU Mustangs have been going under the radar this season. They are coached by former NBA great Larry Brown, who is quietly turning this program around. Brown has his Mustangs off to an 8-3 start this season.
Wagner doesn't have near the talent of SMU, and it should not be betting this much respect from oddsmakers. Its only wins this season have come against NC Central, Princeton, Hofstra and Coppin State. It is no match for the Mustangs in this one.
What is most impressive about SMU's 8-3 start is the fact that it has already played seven road games in its first 11 contests. It has won four of those road games, including a 73-47 win at Hofstra. As stated before, Wagner also played Hofstra, winning by a narrow margin of 52-44.
Common opponents are a good way to compare teams, and SMU is clearly the superior squad when you look at their meetings with Hofstra. This contest on a neutral court won't even be close folks. Take SMU Friday.
|12-21-12||Chicago Bulls v. New York Knicks UNDER 188||110-106||Loss||-110||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* Bulls/Knicks NBA Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 188
This game between the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks will be a low-scoring affair between two of the best defensive teams in the league. I don't expect either team to eclipse 95 points in this one.
Chicago is allowing just 90.3 points per game this season while holding opponents to 42.4% shooting. However, it is scoring a mere 92.8 points per game on 44.1% shooting. As you can see, it is combining with its opponents to average 183.1 points per game this season. New York is yielding 94.5 points per game at home.
Recent history between these teams shows that we are getting tremendous value with this UNDER tonight. Each of their last three meetings have seen 184 or less combined points at the end of regulation. That includes a 93-85 home victory for Chicago on December 8th with 178 combined points in their lone meeting this season.
The UNDER is 7-0 in Bulls last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. These two trends combine for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 35-16 in Bills last 51 games overall, and 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-21-12||Milwaukee Bucks v. Boston Celtics UNDER 191.5||99-94||Loss||-110||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 191.5
This total has been inflated tonight in a battle between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in a game where I expect neither Boston nor Milwaukee to put up more than 95 points in this one.
The recent history between these teams shows that this total has been inflated tonight. They have already met three times this season with Milwaukee winning 99-88 on the road on November 2nd for 187 combined points, Boston winning 96-92 on the road on November 10th for 188 combined points, and Milwaukee winning at home 91-88 on December 1st for 179 combined points. So this will be their 4th meeting of the season already, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games.
Looking back further I find some even more astonishing numbers in this head-to-head series. Boston and Milwaukee have combined for 191 or less points at the end of regulation in eight of their last nine meetings with one another. Their last four meetings dating back to last year have seen an average of 178.8 combined points/game.
Boston is 40-23 to the UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 9-1 in Bucks last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic division opponents. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 road games. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-21-12||Ball State +7 v. Central Florida||Top||17-38||Loss||-100||212 h 20 m||Show|
25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Ball State +7
The Ball State Cardinals have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They won nine games with their only losses coming against current Top 25 opponents in Clemson, Northern Illinois and Kent State. They fell to both the Huskies and Golden Flashes by a combined 14 points, and both of those teams went on to play in the MAC title game. In fact, Northern Illinois will be playing in a BCS bowl.
Ball State features a dynamic offense, and it is certainly the superior team on this side of the ball. It is averaging 35.0 points per game while ranking 22nd in the country in total offense at 471.3 yards per game. It is averaging 214.3 yards on the ground and 257.1 through the air. UCF is 58th in total offense at 400.7 yards per game.
Starting quarterback Keith Wenning is expected to return after missing their season finale against Miami (Ohio) with a strained Achilles tendon. He is currently listed as probable, and he
|12-21-12||Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 188.5||80-99||Win||100||7 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/76ers UNDER 188.5
The Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. Philadelphia has gone OVER the total in six straight, while Atlanta has gone OVER the number in three of their last four. These recent OVER runs for both teams has created some line value on the UNDER tonight.
Atlanta is scoring just 94.7 points/game while giving up 90.9 points/game on the road this season for an average combined score of 185.6 points/game. Philadelphia is scoring 93.2 points/game and allowing 96.9 points/game on the season for an average combined score of 190.1 points/game.
The recent history between these teams shows that this number has been inflated. Philadelphia and Atlanta have combined for 185, 185 and 166 points in their last three meetings, respectively. These teams clearly tend to play in defensive battles, and I expect that to be the case again tonight.
Atlanta is 15-2 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. I'm seeing an average combined score of 179.1 points/game between the Hawks and their opponents in this spot. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-20-12||BYU -2.5 v. San Diego State||Top||23-6||Win||100||189 h 50 m||Show|
20* BYU/San Diego State Poinsettia Bowl ANNIHILATOR on BYU -2.5
The BYU Cougars come in playing well having won three of their last four games overall. All three wins came by 24 or more points, including a 41-17 victory at Georgia Tech. Their lone loss during this stretch came on the road against an underrated San Jose State team by a final of 14-20.
San Diego State has a solid offense, but BYU has the antidote with one of the best defenses in the FBS. It is allowing just 14.7 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 266.3 yards per game.
The Cougars aren
|12-20-12||Pepperdine +8 v. Tulane||54-69||Loss||-110||7 h 12 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pepperdine +8
The Pepperdine Waves are showing solid value as a 7.5-point underdog to the Tulane Green Wave Thursday. Pepperdine is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and I believe it has an excellent chance to win this game outright tonight.
Pepperdine is off to a 7-4 start this season under head coach Marty Wilson. Three of its four losses have come by 6 points or less, and the other was a 62-79 loss at California as a 20.5-point underdog. The biggest reason you can tell this team is underrated is the fact that it is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
Sure, Tulane is off to an 8-3 start this season, but it really doesn't have a good win on its resume. Its eight victories have all come at home against the likes of Bethune-Cookman, Nebraska-Omaha, Chicago State, Southern U, Loyola New Orleans, Navy, Nicholls State and Texas Pan Am. Just to give you an example of how easy of a schedule that is, there was only one line set in those eight games. Tulane has only had four lined games all season.
Tulane is 1-10 ATS in home games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days since 1997. The Green Wave are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Tulane is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These five trends combine for a 35-2 (95%) system backing the Waves. Roll with Pepperdine Thursday.
|12-20-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 199||93-99||Loss||-110||7 h 9 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Timberwolves TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 199
The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves. I look for a high-scoring affair as both teams score at least 100 in this one while combining for 200-plus by game's end.
Oklahoma City has been scoring at will while playing tremendous basketball over the past month. The Thunder have won 15 of their last 16 games overall. The biggest reason for their success has been their offensive efficiency considering they have score 100-plus points in 15 of those 16 contests.
Minnesota has not been good defensively of late, which is a big reason why the OVER is 4-1 in the Timberwolves' last five games overall. They have given up 102 or more points in five straight contests, so the Thunder are certainly in line to put up at least 100 in this one.
A look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have set the number too low tonight. Each of the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to 2010 have seen 201 or more combined points. In fact, eight of those contests have seen 214 or more combined points. This makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing the OVER in this one. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.
|12-19-12||Mississippi v. Loyola Marymount +8.5||73-70||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Loyola-Marymount +8.5
The Loyola-Marymount Lions are showing awesome value as a 7.5-point home underdog to the Ole Miss Rebels tonight. Ole Miss is way overvalued due to its 7-1 start to the season, while Loyola-Marymount is undervalued because of its mediocre 5-4 start.
It's easy to see why Ole Miss has gotten off to a 7-1 start considering it has played seven of its first eight games at home. Those seven home wins came against Mississippi Valley State, Coastal Carolina, Arkansas-Little Rock, McNeese State, Lipscomb, East Tennessee State and Rutgers. Its only road game this season resulted in a 62-65 loss at Middle Tennessee State.
Loyola-Marymount has played a much more difficult schedule as six of its first nine games have been on the road. The Lions have gone 2-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Long Beach State by three points with a final of 70-73.
I really like the balance of this team as they have four players averaging in double figures scoring, led by Anthony Ireland (21.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.8 APG). They also recently got guard Bruce English (10.0 PPG) back from injury.
Loyola-Marymount is 7-0 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The Lions are 6-0 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. These two trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system that has not lost over the last two years. Bet Loyola-Marymount Wednesday.
|12-19-12||New Orleans Hornets +13.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||77-93||Loss||-104||11 h 31 m||Show|
15* Hornets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +13.5
The New Orleans Hornets are showing great value as a 13.5-point underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers Wednesday night. This number has been inflated, and we'll take advantage by backing the dog in the final game on the board tonight.
The Clippers are overvalued due to their current 10-game winning streak. The betting public is now all over this team due to this streak, which has forced the oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.
New Orleans will be amped up for this game to try and end the Clippers' winning streak, while also trying to put a halt to their own eight-game slide. They nearly ended it in their past two games, falling 94-95 at Portland as a 5-point dog, and 96-103 at Golden State as a 7.5-point dog.
New Orleans just recently got Anthony Davis back from injury, and he is clearly their most important player as he ranks 2nd in the team in scoring (14.6), 1st in blocks (2.0), 1st in rebounds (8.2) and 1st in steals (1.4).
The Hornets won their first meeting with the Clippers this season 105-98 on the road on November 26th as a 13-point underdog, and they didn't even have Davis for that contest. With him in the line-up this time around, he'll make life very difficult on Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan of Los Angeles.
This play falls into a system that is 61-26 (70.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.
New Orleans is 29-12 ATS in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The Hornets are 27-14 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Hornets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. Roll with New Orleans Wednesday.
|12-19-12||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 192||91-103||Loss||-107||8 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Celtics UNDER 192
Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics will be fatigued tonight after playing Tuesday. This will be the second of a back-to-back for both squads as Boston fell 89-100 at Chicago, while Cleveland lost 99-113 at home to Toronto.
The fact that both teams lost actually works in our favor here. Cleveland has lost four straight now, and it will be fighting extra hard defensively to try and get a win. Boston has dropped three straight while allowing at least 100 points in all three road losses to Houston, San Antonio and Chicago. It will certainly be laying it all on the line defensively tonight.
The recent history between these teams indicates that the total has been inflated tonight. The Celtics and Cavaliers have combined for 169, 183 and 175 points in each of their last three meetings, respectively.
This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more.
Cleveland is 17-5 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Boston is 29-16 to the UNDER when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons, including 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games playing on 0 days' rest. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|12-19-12||Brooklyn Nets v. New York Knicks UNDER 194.5||Top||86-100||Win||100||6 h 7 m||Show|
20* NBA on ESPN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Knicks/Nets UNDER 194.5
The New York Knicks take on the Brooklyn Nets tonight in what will be one of the best rivalries in the league for years to come. These rivals are already very familiar with each other having played each other twice.
Brooklyn won the first meeting 96-89 in overtime on November 26th, while New York took the second 100-97. The Nets shot 52.9% in that game, while the Knicks made 14 of 28 (50%) from 3-point range. So, this will be their 3rd meeting in less than a month.
Neither team is likely to shoot as well as it did in the last meeting. Their familiarity with one another will lead to a low-scoring affair tonight. Plus, Carmelo Anthony is banged up and questionable to go tonight for New York after missing the past two games due to injury.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Nets last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 23-7 in Nets last 30 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 34-16-2 in Nets last 52 road games. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in New York. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|12-19-12||The Citadel +20.5 v. St Bonaventure||57-97||Loss||-110||7 h 55 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on The Citadel +20.5
The Citadel Bulldogs are showing solid value as a 20.5-point underdog to St. Bonaventure tonight. The books have inflated this number quite a bit in a game that the Bonnies will not take seriously.
St. Bonaventure is off to a 6-3 start this season, but it really doesn't have an impressive win on its resume. It has been favored in all but two games this season, and it lost both of those contests as an underdog to Ohio and Arkansas State.
Off a huge 87-53 win over Cleveland State, and with a Top 25 opponent in NC State on deck Saturday, St. Bonaventure is in a big letdown spot. It will be looking ahead to that game against the Wolfpack, and it won't give The Citadel the attention it will take to cover this big spread tonight.
The Citadel is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. This is simply a great situation to back the Bulldogs given the state of mind of St. Bonaventure coming in. Take The Citadel Wednesday.
|12-18-12||New Orleans Hornets v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 193||Top||96-103||Loss||-115||11 h 12 m||Show|
20* Hornets/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 193
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the New Orleans Hornets and Golden State Warriors. Both teams are better defensively than they get credit for, and neither is explosive offensively.
New Orleans is scoring just 91.9 points/game and giving up 98.1 points/game. Its defensive numbers will continue to improve as long as Anthony Davis stays healthy. He has missed the majority of their games and he just recently returned.
Golden State is scoring 99.6 points/game and allowing 98.4 points/game, including 96.9 points/game at home. Mark Jackson has this team playing the way he envisioned when he took over, which is defense first.
Taking a look at the recent history between these teams, it's easy to see that there is value with the UNDER. Golden State and New Orleans have combined to score 193 or less points in four straight meetings. That includes an 83-81 Hornets' home victory in their most recent showdown.
This play falls into a system that is 38-11 (77.6%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset win as a road underdog, playing with 2 days rest. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|12-18-12||Indiana Pacers v. Milwaukee Bucks -2||93-98||Win||100||8 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2
The Milwaukee Bucks should be a much bigger home favorite tonight over the Indiana Pacers. This is one of the most underrated teams in the league, and they continue going under the radar despite a solid 12-10 start.
Milwaukee has won four of its last five games overall, which includes an impressive road win at Brooklyn. Its only loss came last time out to the Los Angeles Clippers as nothing went right offensively. Turns out that wasn't such a bad loss considering the Clippers have won 10 in a row and counting.
These teams have already met once this season with Milwaukee topping Indiana 99-85 at home on November 14th. That game was even more of a blowout than the final score would indicate as the Bucks took a 60-34 lead into halftime before calling off the dogs after intermission.
Indiana is getting too much respect due to its three-game winning streak that has come against the Cavs, 76ers and Pistons. The Pacers are 16-32 ATS in their last 48 road games following two straight wins by 10 points or more. Indiana is 11-27 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Bucks Tuesday.
|12-18-12||Utah Jazz v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 193||92-90||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Nets UNDER 193
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle Tuesday in Brooklyn as neither team surpasses 95 points in this one.
The Nets are averaging 95.9 points/game this season while allowing 93.8 points/game. That's an average combined score of 189.3 points/game between the Nets and their opponents this season. This team is built for the half court, and they'll control the tempo playing at home tonight.
The UNDER is 3-0 in Utah's last three games overall. The Jazz have really struggled offensively in their last two contests, falling 84-99 to Phoenix on December 14th and 86-99 to Memphis the following night.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 Tuesday games. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Nets last 6 games following a ATS win. These three trends combine for a 14-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 9-3 in Nets last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|12-18-12||Minnesota Timberwolves +9 v. Miami Heat||92-103||Loss||-110||7 h 28 m||Show|
15* T'Wolves/Heat NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Minnesota +9
The Minnesota Timberwolves are finally starting to get healthy, and this is going to be a very dangerous team going forward because of it. They have opened 12-10 despite battling through injuries all season.
Sure, Minnesota blew a 12-point halftime lead to fall to Orlando last night 93-102. However, it was likely overlooking the Magic and looking ahead to this contest against the defending champion Miami Heat tonight.
The Timberwolves will be giving a much better effort in this one. They had been playing very well before that loss last night. They have still won six of their last eight games overall, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Minnesota is 15-3 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Timberwolves are 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.
|12-18-12||Winthrop +29 v. Ohio State||55-65||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Winthrop +29
This is a huge letdown spot for the No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1). They have a home game against No. 9 Kansas on deck, and it's only human nature for them to look ahead to that game this Saturday.
Because Ohio State will be overlooking Winthrop in this one, I have no doubt that they'll be able to stay within 29 points tonight. The Buckeyes are becoming a bit bored after playing Northern Kentucky, Long Beach State, Savannah State and UNC-Asheville all at home in their last four contests.
The Buckeyes started to show signs of getting bored against UNC-Asheville last time out, only winning 90-72 despite coming in as a 25.5-point favorite. Wintrop is off to a 4-4 start this season with only one of its losses coming by more than 15 points. It is coming off an impressive 50-49 win at Ohio (7-3) last time out. Take Winthrop Tuesday.
|12-17-12||NY Jets +2 v. Tennessee Titans||Top||10-14||Loss||-110||78 h 34 m||Show|
20* Jets/Titans ESPN Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York +2
While the Titans have already been eliminated from postseason contention, the Jets are still alive. They have an excellent chance to win their final three games against the Titans, Chargers and Bills, which would leave them with a 9-7 record. That could be good enough to get them a wild-card spot, so this team certainly still has something to play for.
New York has won two straight and three of its last four with its only loss coming to the Patriots during this stretch. It has two road wins over this span with a 27-13 victory at St. Louis on November 18th, and a 17-10 win at Jacksonville last Sunday. It has been playing great defensively of late, limiting its opponents to 291 or less yards in its last three wins. It even held the Cardinals to 137 total yards in a home victory on December 2nd.
The Jets are certainly the better defensive team in this one, and it
|12-17-12||Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 v. Orlando Magic||93-102||Loss||-108||7 h 24 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the most underrated teams in the league. They have been battling through injuries all year and still find themselves in the playoff hunt in the Western Conference at 12-9.
Minnesota has won four straight and six of seven overall. Ricky Rubio just returned on Saturday, while Kevin Love (flu) missed Saturday's 114-106 overtime victory over Dallas. Both Rubio and Love are expected to be in the line-up together for the first time this season Monday.
These teams already met once this season with Minnesota topping Orlando 90-75 at home on November 7th. With Rubio and Love both in the fold this time around, I'm expecting a similar blowout on the road tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites (MINNESOTA) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Take the Timberwolves Monday.
|12-17-12||Detroit +20 v. Syracuse||68-72||Win||100||7 h 0 m||Show|
15* Detroit/Syracuse ESPN 2 Monday No-Brainer on Detroit +20
The Detroit Titans are showing excellent value tonight as a big road underdog to the Syracuse Orange. They have won four straight to improve to 6-4 on the season. Their only four losses have all come on the road to St. Johns, Miami, Bowling Green and Pittsburgh all by 15 points or less.
Syracuse is way overvalued right now due to its 9-0 start. Sure, it has gone 6-0 ATS in all lined games to this point, but that is another reason why this team is overvalued right now. The Orange have played an extremely easy schedule to this point with seven home games and only one true road game. This will be their toughest home game yet.
This play falls into a system that is 74-30 (71.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 9 or more consecutive wins.
Syracuse is 6-17 ATS in home games after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more since 1997. Detroit is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. Big East opponents. The Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Horizon League foes. Roll with Detroit Monday.
|12-16-12||New Orleans Hornets +5.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers||94-95||Win||100||20 h 44 m||Show|
15* Hornets/Blazers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +5.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are overvalued right now after back-to-back victories over the Raptors and Spurs. They caught the Spurs in a tough spot for San Antonio as they were playing the second of a back-to-back. This also sets the Blazers up for a letdown after such a big win.
New Orleans is highly motivated to put an end to its 6-game losing streak that has featured losses to the Lakers, Grizzlies, Heat, Wizards, Thunder and Timberwolves. That is an absolute brutal schedule, and it certainly gets easier tonight against the 10-12 Blazers.
The Hornets are starting to get healthy as they finally got top pick Anthony Davis back in the line-up recently. Davis' return is huge as he ranks 2nd on the team in scoring (14.6 PPG), 1st in rebounding (7.7 RPG) and 1st in blocks (2.2 BPG).
Portland is 1-11 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is actually getting outscored 106.2 to 95.1 in this spot, or by an average of 11.1 points/game. Roll with the Hornets Sunday.
|12-16-12||Seattle Seahawks v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 43||50-17||Loss||-110||49 h 10 m||Show|
15* Seahawks/Bills NFL Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 43
This total has been inflated Sunday in the annual NFL game played at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Canada. I look for a very low-scoring game between the Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon.
The biggest reason this total is inflated is due to the Seahawks scoring 58 points last week against Arizona. The Cardinals had given up early into that game, and the Seahawks kept pouring on the points. They won't be putting up a big number on this improved Bills' defense this week.
Buffalo has been playing tremendous on defense of late, limiting opponents to just 16.8 points/game in their last four contests. However, they have been poor offensively of late, scoring an average of only 19.5 points/game in their last four.
Seattle features one of the best defenses in the league. After shutting out the Cardinals last week, the Seahawks are giving up just 15.5 points/game while ranking 3rd in the league in total defense at 301.2 yards/game allowed.
The Seahawks are really not a good offensive team, especially when you don't factor in that Arizona game last week. Seattle is averaging just 17.0 points/game on the road this season, and it ranks just 21st in the league in total offense at 341.2 yards/game.
Buffalo is 13-2 to the UNDER in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score in these games has been Buffalo 14.0 and its opponents 22.8 for a combined average of 36.8 points. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|12-16-12||Detroit Lions v. Arizona Cardinals +6.5||10-38||Win||100||49 h 59 m||Show|
15* Lions/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +6.5
The Lions have lost five straight, and they have to be extremely frustrated with all of their close losses this season. Off a 20-27 loss at Green Bay in which they blew a 14-3 lead early, the Lions may not even show up this week. It
|12-16-12||Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints OVER 53.5||Top||0-41||Loss||-115||46 h 2 m||Show|
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bucs/Saints OVER 53.5
The OVER in this game between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints Sunday represents my strongest over/under release for the entire 2012-13 NFL season. I look for both teams to score 27-plus points to easily push the final combined score OVER the posted total by game's end.
I look for a similar final to the 35-28 road victory by New Orleans in the first meeting between these teams on October 21st. Tampa Bay put up 513 total yards in the loss, including 411 passing. New Orleans wasn't far behind with 458 total yards in the win, including 377 passing. As you can see, these teams combined for 63 total points and 971 total yards.
These are clearly two of the worst defenses in the NFL. New Orleans is allowing 29.2 points/game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 437.3 yards per game. Tampa Bay is yielding 23.7 points/game and ranking 28th in total defense at 389.8 yards per game.
That bodes well for a high-scoring affair considering these are two of the best offenses in the league as well. New Orleans is scoring 26.8 points/game while ranking 3rd in total offense at 394.3 yards/game. Tampa Bay is putting up 27.2 points/game and ranking 13th in total offense at 356.8 yards/game.
The Bucs are 6-0 OVER vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are 6-0 OVER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Tampa is 7-0 OVER off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.
The Bucs are 6-0 OVER after playing a home game this season. Tampa is 6-0 OVER after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. The Saints are 6-0 OVER in home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. These six trends combine for a perfect 37-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-16-12||Minnesota Vikings v. St. Louis Rams -2||36-22||Loss||-110||46 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Rams -2
The St. Louis Rams are playing their best football of the season right now. They should be a bigger favorite over the Minnesota Vikings Sunday, and I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back the Rams in a game I believe they'll run away with.
St. Louis has won three straight with two of those victories coming on the road. It won 31-17 at Arizona as a 1.5-point dog, 16-13 vs. San Francisco as a 7.5-point dog, and 15-12 at Buffalo as a 3-point dog. This is clearly one of the most underrated teams in the league.
Minnesota is getting way too much respect for its 21-14 victory over Chicago last week. The Bears essentially gave that game away as they found a way to lose despite outgaining the Vikings 438-248 for the game. Remember, this is the same Minnesota team that had lost four of its previous five games all by 9 points or more coming in.
Percy Harvin is done for the year, and the Vikings' passing game has really struggled because of it. They are averaging a woeful 124.3 passing yards/game in their last seven contests. They are having to rely much too heavily on Adrian Peterson to carry the load, and their one-dimensional offense will be easy for the Rams to stop.
St. Louis ranks 12th in the league against the run at 110.3 yards/game. It is also giving up just 4.0 yards/carry. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider the 13 teams the Rams have faced this season average 126 yards and 4.4/carry, so they clearly have a great run D.
The Rams are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season, clearly playing best football inside the Edward Jones Dome. Minnesota has been atrocious on the road, going 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season. The Vikings are getting outscored by an average of 7.5 points/game away from home this year.
Minnesota is 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. The Vikings are 0-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. Minnesota is 1-9 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. These five trends combine for a 31-1 (97%) system backing St. Louis. Take the Rams Sunday.
|12-16-12||Jacksonville Jaguars +8 v. Miami Dolphins||3-24||Loss||-119||46 h 54 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +8
The Jaguars have played their best football on the road this season. While they are just 1-5 straight up away from home, they are a very profitable 5-1 ATS. This team doesn't have the best following at home, so they have a hard time getting excited to play in a stadium that has thousands of empty seats. It's just a better atmosphere for these players when they go on the road.
They lost at Minnesota 23-26 in overtime as a 3.5-point dog, won at Indianapolis 22-17 as a 3-point dog, lost at Oakland 23-26 as a 6-point dog, lost at Green Bay 15-24 as a 15.5-point dog, and lost at Houston 37-43 in overtime as a 15-point dog in their five road covers.
Miami is actually getting outscored at home this season, and it has been one of the worst home teams in the league over the last couple decades. The Dolphins are 48-71 ATS in home games after the first month of the season since 1992. They are also 39-59 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
The Dolphins simply do not score enough points to be a 7-point favorite against any team in this league. They are only averaging 18.5 points per game while ranking 29th in the league in total offense at 310.6 yards per game. Three of their five wins this season have come by 4 points or less.
This play falls into a system that is 118-70 (62.8%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI)
|12-15-12||Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls -3.5||Top||82-83||Loss||-110||21 h 55 m||Show|
25* NBA Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -3.5
This is one of the best situations you will see all year in the NBA. All factors point toward a blowout in favor of the Chicago Bulls tonight as they host the Brooklyn Nets.
Chicago comes in fresh as it has had two days' rest since a solid 96-89 victory at Philadelphia on Wednesday. It will use those fresh legs to run the dead tired Nets out of the building tonight.
Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. If that situation wasn't already tough enough, the Nets are coming off a double-overtime victory over Detroit last night by a final of 107-105. Simply put, they won't have anything left to give against Chicago in this one.
The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. Brooklyn is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games overall. Bet the Bulls Saturday.
|12-15-12||Iona v. Georgia -1.5||81-78||Loss||-110||17 h 59 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -1.5
The Georgia Bulldogs are showing their best value of the season as only a 1.5-point favorite over Iona. I look for them to run away with this one by double-digits or close to it by game's end.
Georgia is undervalued right now due to its 2-6 start against a wicked schedule. It has faced the likes of Indiana, UCLA, South Florida and Georgia Tech all on the road for four of its losses. Battle-tested and hungry for a victory, the Bulldogs will be laying it all on the line at home tonight.
Iona is just 3-4 this season, and it should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. Its four losses have come to Quinnipiac, Illinois-Chicago, St. Peters and Rutgers. I wouldn't consider any of those four teams to be above-average, and the Gaels lost to them all.
Iona is 2-10 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. Georgia is 22-7 ATS in home games after scoring 55 points or less since 1997. The Gaels are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bulldogs are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 Saturday games, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take Georgia Saturday.
|12-15-12||Toledo v. Utah State OVER 58.5||Top||15-41||Loss||-107||65 h 24 m||Show|
20* Toledo/Utah State Potato Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 58.5
The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl features a match-up between two of the best offenses in the country. I look for a high-scoring affair in this contest between Utah State and Toledo with 60-plus combined points scored by game's end.
Utah State is scoring 34.4 points per game while ranking 26th in the country in total offense at 460.7 yards/game. What makes this offense so difficult to stop is its balance. The Aggies average 193 yards on the ground and 268 through the air.
The Aggies should have their way with a Toledo stop unit that ranks 107th in the country in total defense. They give up a whopping 463.2 yards/game, including 168 on the ground and 295 through the air.
Toledo is putting up 32.9 points/game while ranking 28th in the country in total offense at 456.1 yards/game. It also has tremendous balance as it averages 197 yards on the ground and 259 through the air.
Utah State does have a good defense, but it hasn't faced many offenses nearly as potent as the one it will be facing in this bowl game. Two offenses they've faced that have been comparable are San Jose State and Louisiana Tech. They gave up 27 points in a 49-27 victory over San Jose State on September 13th, and 41 points in a 48-41 victory over Louisiana Tech on November 17th.
Toledo is 6-0 to the OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average of 78.8 combined points on average in this situation. The Rockets are 11-1 to the OVER off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average of 76.0 combined points in this spot. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-15-12||Cincinnati v. Marshall +12.5||72-56||Loss||-112||14 h 60 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +12.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats are overvalued due to their 9-0 start. They should not be a double-digit favorite Saturday in what will essentially be a home game for Marshall at the Charleston Civic Center in Charleston, WV.
Cincinnati has played an extremely soft schedule this season. It has yet to play a true road games, and its two neutral court contests resulted in wins over both Iowa State and Oregon by 11 points or less.
Marshall is off to a 6-4 start this season with all four of its losses coming by 12 points or less. Two of those defeats came on the road against Villanova and West Virginia, which are two solid basketball programs. This is a Marshall team that returns three starters from a squad that beat Cincinnati 73-69 last year.
This play falls into a system that is 73-36 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (CINCINNATI) - after 9 or more consecutive wins, undefeated on the season. This trend really shows how it is profitable to fade overvalued teams that open the season on long winning streaks.
Marshall is a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. It is actually outscoring these top caliber teams by an average of 6.9 points/game over the last 3 years. Take Marshall Saturday.
|12-15-12||Texas A&M v. Oklahoma -3||54-64||Win||100||14 h 59 m||Show|
15* Texas A&M/Oklahoma ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3
The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Head coach Lon Kruger, a proven winner throughout his career, has returned all five starters from last year's team. That includes three double-digit scorers.
The biggest reason this team is undervalued is due to its mediocre 6-2 start. However, both of those losses came on the road to Gonzaga and Arkansas, which are two teams that are better than they get credit for. This will essentially be a home game for the Sooners as it will be played at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK.
Texas A&M is getting way too much respect due to its 7-1 start. It has played a much softer schedule than Oklahoma. Its only tough opponent came against Saint Louis on a neutral court, and the Aggies fell in blowout fashion 70-49. They have only played one true road game all season.
This play falls into a system that is 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (OKLAHOMA) - off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season. The Aggies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.
|12-14-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. Denver Nuggets -1||Top||94-99||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
20* NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -1
The Denver Nuggets are one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now due to their 11-12 start. The Memphis Grizzlies are certainly overvalued due to their 14-5 start, and that is starting to show as they have lost two straight coming in despite being heavy favorites in both.
The biggest reason Denver is just 10-11 right now is due to a brutal schedule. It has played a ridiculous 17 road games compared to just 6 home games to this point. Following a five-game road trip, there's no question that it will be excited to return home tonight.
The Nuggets are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season. They are scoring 103.8 points/game and allowing 94.0 points/game, outscoring their opponents by an average of 9.8 points/game at home this year.
Denver is 27-3 in all home meetings with Memphis since 1996. The Grizzlies are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Bet Denver Friday.
|12-14-12||Boston Celtics v. Houston Rockets UNDER 206.5||89-101||Win||100||8 h 18 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Rockets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 206.5
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this nationally televised showdown on ESPN. Any time a game involving the Boston Celtics has a total set over 200, the UNDER is certainly worth a look. I look for the defensive intensity to be at a high level for both teams in this National TV battle.
Boston has already played in four overtime games this season, including their 117-115 victory over Dallas in double overtime on Wednesday. Even with those four OT games included, the Celtics are still averaging just 98.3 points/game and giving up 97.5 points/game on the season.
Houston has also been a part of three overtime games already, which is certainly more than average as well. The Rockets are scoring 104.2 points/game and allowing 104.8 points/game on the season.
Boston is combining with its opponents to average 195.8 points/game, while Houston is combining with its opponents to average 209.0 points/game. Add those numbers up and divide by two and we get an average of 202.4 points/game, which would be the expected total if these teams played each other. We're getting a full 4 points of value here with the UNDER, and I believe it's even more than that considering these teams have combined to play in 7 overtime games already.
The two most recent meetings between these teams have been extremely low scoring. Houston beat Boston 93-77 at home on 3/18/11 for 170 combined points. Boston topped Houston 97-92 in overtime on 3/6/12 in a game that was tied 84-84 at the end of regulation for a combined 168 points. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Houston.
This play falls into a system that is 71-36 (66.4%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-14-12||Golden State Warriors v. Orlando Magic +5||85-99||Win||100||7 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +5
The Golden State Warriors are overvalued right after having won eight of their last nine games overall. There's no question that this team is better than it was expected to be, but they should not be favored at Orlando tonight.
Golden State's only loss during this stretch came at home to Orlando by a final of 94-102 on December 3rd. After winning five straight road games to start this 7-game trip, the Warriors are in a huge letdown spot tonight.
They are coming off a win over the defending champion Miami Heat 97-95 on Wednesday. After earning their biggest win of the season, there's no question the Warriors will have a hard time getting up to face the Magic tonight.
Orlando has won seven of its last eight meetings with Golden State. Its only loss since 2008 came in overtime by a final of 123-120 on the road. The Magic are 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando. Take the Magic Friday.
|12-13-12||Cincinnati Bengals v. Philadelphia Eagles +5||Top||34-13||Loss||-110||22 h 36 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Eagles NFL Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia +5
The Eagles are showing excellent value at home tonight as a 5-point underdog to the Cincinnati Bengals. This line opened at Cincinnati -3, but the betting public has jumped all over the Bengals pushing it up to 5 in some places. I liked the Eagles at +3.5, and I certainly will back them at this price with a gift of a line from the books at +4.5 or better.
Philadelphia is undervalued right now due to the fact that it won't be going to the playoffs. These players have really known that for quite some time after a 3-7 start, but they have kept fighting. I look for them to continue to give their best effort tonight and to try and play the role of spoiler, just as they did last week.
The Eagles have been fighting for the last three weeks. They lost at home to Carolina 22-30 on November 26th, lost at Dallas 33-38 as a 10.5-point dog on December 2nd, then won 23-21 at Tampa Bay as a 7-point dog last Sunday. They thoroughly outplayed the Bucs, outgaining them 367-314 for the game.
Nick Foles had a big game, completing 32 of 51 passes for 381 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. In fact, he has not thrown an interception in 14 quarters as he continues to improve with each start. The Eagles' defense held Josh Freeman to 14 of 34 passing for 189 yards and two touchdowns.
"He has the potential to be a special quarterback in this league," said Jeremy Maclin, who caught a season-high nine passes for 104 yards in the win over Tampa Bay. "And he's growing up right in front of our eyes."
Cincinnati blew a 9-point lead at home in the fourth quarter to lose 19-20 to the Dallas Cowboys last week. Head coach Marvin Lewis hasn't been able to get his team to respond well following tough losses like that one. Lewis is 2-10 ATS after a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of Cincinnati.
Andy Reid is 29-13 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Philadelphia. Lewis is 0-9 ATS in road games vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return as the coach of Cincinnati.
This play falls into a system that is 37-9 (80.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. Bet the Eagles Thursday.
|12-13-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. New York Knicks UNDER 208||107-116||Loss||-103||9 h 20 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Knicks TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 208
The Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This game will be nationally televised on TNT, which tends to bring up the defensive intensity from both teams.
New York is one of the better defensive teams in the league as they give up 95.3 points/game on the season, including 91.2 points/game at home. The Knicks have allowed less than 100 points in eight of their last nine games overall.
The Lakers are yielding a respectable 98.8 points/game and they are certainly putting emphasis on their play at this end of the floor after a tough recent stretch. They have lost five of their last six contests, so this team will be giving a little bit extra at the defensive end to try and pick up a big win.
A look at the recent history between these teams makes it easy to see that this total has been inflated. The home team won their two most recent meetings. Los Angeles won 99-82 on 12/29/11 for 181 combined points, while New York won 92-85 on 02/10/12 for 177 combined points. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
New York is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing an average of 184.1 combined points/game in this spot. The Lakers are 14-4 to the UNDER after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 34-15-2 in Lakers last 51 Thursday games. The UNDER is 16-7 in Knicks last 23 Thursday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|12-12-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz UNDER 210||96-99||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
15* Spurs/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 210
Oddsmakers have inflated this total due to recent performances from both teams that were very high-scoring. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in a game that will be nationally televised on ESPN, which always tends to bring out stronger defensive intensity by both teams.
San Antonio just beat Houston 134-126 in overtime for 260 combined points. Utah just beat the Lakers 117-110 on the road for 227 combined points. Both the Rockets and Lakers have been atrocious on the defensive end recently, which is the biggest reason for those high-scoring affairs. Oddsmakers have been forced to set this total too high based on those recent performances, knowing that the betting public would jump on the OVER if they didn't.
Taking a look at this series between the Spurs and Jazz, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. Each of the last six meetings in this series have seen 210 or less combined points. Six of the last seven meetings in Utah have seen 208 or less combined points. Utah is only giving up 93.6 points/game at home this season, while San Antonio is yielding 97.3 points/game in all games this year.
The Jazz are 18-5 to the UNDER in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games since 1996. Utah is 70-47 to the UNDER in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 since 1996. The Jazz are 22-10 to the UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|12-12-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Charlotte Bobcats +8.5||100-94||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Bobcats +8.5
The Charlotte Bobcats are showing solid value as an 8.5-point home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. The value is simply too good to pass up, and I'll gladly fade the public and put my smart money on the big home dog in this one.
This is an extremely tough spot for a Clippers team that is way overvalued due to its seven-game winning streak. Los Angeles will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. It is coming off a big 94-89 road win at Chicago on National TV last night, setting it up for a big letdown spot tonight in Charlotte.
The Bobcats are way undervalued right now due to their current eight-game losing streak. This skid has come against a brutal schedule as their eight opponents have been the Thunder, Hawks, 76ers, Blazers, Knicks, Bucks, Spurs and Warriors. Four of their five home losses during this stretch have come by 8 points or less. Fresh on one days' rest, and motivated to put an end to this losing streak, the Bobcats will be giving better effort tonight than the Clippers.
The Clippers are 19-38 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games since 1996. Los Angeles is 37-60 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Clippers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games overall. Los Angeles only has one true road win by more than 5 points this season. Take the Bobcats Wednesday.
|12-12-12||Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 188.5||Top||94-88||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets/Raptors UNDER 188.5
There are two main reasons that I believe this game finishes well below the posted total tonight. Both the Brooklyn Nets and the Toronto Raptors will struggle to reach 90 points because of these two factors.
First, Brooklyn is a tired team right now as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. I look for the Nets to play at a slower tempo offensively because of it. This is an excellent team defensively as the Nets are allowing just 94.0 points/game overall and 91.1 points/game on the road. They are only scoring 93.0 points/game on the road as well.
Toronto is likely to be without two of its top three scorers tonight. Andrea Bargnani (16.0 PPG) is doubtful with an elbow injury, while Kyle Lowry (15.8 PPG, 5.8 APG) is doubtful with a tricep injury. Not having Bargnani's shooting and Lowry's ability to run the offense and create open looks for teammates is really going to hamper Toronto's offense tonight.
Toronto is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games after a game where they made 85% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing an average of 176.5 points/game in this situation. The UNDER is 20-5-2 in Brooklyn's last 27 road games. The UNDER is 17-4 in Raptors last 21 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|12-11-12||New York Knicks v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 194||Top||100-97||Loss||-110||7 h 24 m||Show|
20* Knicks/Nets ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on UNDER 194
Both the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets are improved defensively this season. I believe oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this rivalry. The defensive intensity will be very high between these two teams in a nationally televised game on ESPN.
These teams already met once this season with Brooklyn topping New York 96-89 at home on November 26th in overtime. That game was tied 84-84 at the end of regulation for 168 combined points, and I look for a similarly low-scoring affair tonight. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series.
The Knicks are yielding just 95.2 points/game this season. They have been an improved defensive team ever since Mike Woodson took over as head coach. The Nets have been even better on this end of the floor, yielding a mere 93.7 points/game on the season. Off four straight losses, I look for Brooklyn to up its defensive intensity even more tonight.
Brooklyn is 8-1 to the UNDER versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. New York is 32-17 to the UNDER as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are 14-4 to the UNDER in road games after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Nets last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|12-11-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. Cleveland Cavaliers +7||94-100||Win||100||7 h 24 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Line Mistake on Cleveland Cavaliers +7
The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be catching 7 points to the overrated Los Angeles Lakers tonight. I'll gladly side with the value and back the home dog in a game I believe the Cavaliers can win outright.
Cleveland welcomes back point guard Kyrie Irving from a broken finger. He practiced Monday and is expected to play tonight. His return will be a huge boost to a Cleveland team that has struggled to score of late. Irving leads the team in scoring (22.9) and assists (5.6), and he's the heart and soul of this team.
"I think all the guys are looking forward to having Irving back out there because he does make most of our guys' job a lot easier because he creates so much for himself and for his teammates," coach Byron Scott said. "I'm sure the guys will be happy to have him back out there."
The Lakers are way overvalued this season as they are just 9-12 straight up and 9-12 against the spread. They remain without two All-Stars in Pau Gasol and Steve Nash, and they have really struggled without these two. Los Angeles has lost four of its last five games overall. Its biggest weakness is defending quick point guards like Irving.
The Lakers are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 Tuesday games. Los Angeles is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The home team has won four straight in this series, and three of those four meetings were decided by 6 points or less. Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.
|12-11-12||West Virginia v. Duquesne +8.5||56-60||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Duquesne +8.5
The Duquesne Dukes should not be catching 8.5 points at home tonight to the overrated West Virginia Mountaineers. This is a game I easily see them covering, and possibly winning outright Tuesday. West Virginia is in a big letdown spot following a 68-67 home victory over Virginia Tech last time out.
West Virginia is just 4-3 on the season, including a 50-84 loss to Gonzaga. It also lost to Davidson and Oklahoma on a neutral court. The Mountaineers lost their top two scorers from last season in Kevin Jones and Daryl Bryant, who combined for nearly 37 points/game. They have struggled without these two.
Duquesne is 5-4 on the season with its only losses coming to Albany (69-66), Georgetown (55-61), North Dakota State (43-57) and Pittsburgh (45-66). Those four teams have a combined 33-6 (85%) record on the season. That 55-61 loss at Georgetown really shows what this team is capable of because the Hoyas are one of the best teams in the country.
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. Duquesne hast lost its last two home meetings with West Virginia by finals of 61-64 and 63-68. The Mountaineeers are 6-15 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. West Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with Duquesne Tuesday.
|12-10-12||Toronto Raptors v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 196||74-92||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Blazers UNDER 196
This contest between the Portland Trail Blazers and Toronto Raptors Monday sets up for a low-scoring affair. Both teams are in tough spots that will limit their ability to score the basketball.
Toronto will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th road game in 8 days. It showed signs of wearing down last night, scoring just 83 points in a 19-point loss to the Los Angeles Clippers.
Portland will likely be playing without two starters tonight. Nicolas Batum (16.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is expected to miss his third straight game with a back injury, while Wesley Matthews (16.0 PPG) is doubtful with a hip injury.
Portland has lost two straight without Batum, including an ugly 80-99 home loss to the Kings last time out. The Blazers really cannot afford to be down two starters because they have the worst bench in the league.
Their bench ranks 30th in scoring (14.9 points/game), which is 9.0 points worse than the 29th-ranked bench (Lakers). They are really going to miss the 32.4 points that Batum and Mathews combine to average. I look for Portland to slow down the tempo and run its offense through LaMarcus Aldridge in this one.
The UNDER is 19-7-1 in Raptors last 27 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 9-3-1 in Blazers last 13 games following a ATS loss. Roll with the UNDER In this game Monday.
|12-10-12||Houston Texans +4 v. New England Patriots||Top||14-42||Loss||-120||121 h 21 m||Show|
20* Texans/Pats ESPN Monday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Houston +4
The Houston Texans have been the best team in the league all season in my opinion. I look for them to go out and make a statement Monday against the New England Patriots and win this game outright. I'll just take the points for some extra insurance in a game that could easily be decided by a field goal either way.
A closer look at the numbers shows that Houston is the better team in this one. It ranks 4th in the league in total offense (388.5 yards/game) and 6th in total defense (322.9 yards/game). It is outgaining opponents by an average of 65.6 yards/game on the season.
The Patriots rank 1st in the NFL in total offense (426.2 yards/game). However, they are just 26th in total defense (381.7 yards/game), outgaining opponents by 44.5 yards/game. The difference in this game is going to be Houston's ability to get more stops behind a much better defense.
New England really started to show signs of missing TE Rob Gronkowski last week. It only gained 321 total yards against Miami in a lackluster 23-16 victory. Tom Brady and company are much easier to defense when you don't have to worry about his favorite weapon, which is clearly Gronkowski, especially in the red zone.
The Texans are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Texans are 8-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a 23-1 (96%) system backing Houston. I know this line is +3 and +3.5 in a lot of places, and I still recommend the Texans at those numbers. Bet the Texans Monday.
|12-10-12||Atlanta Hawks v. Miami Heat UNDER 195||92-101||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
15* Hawks/Heat NBA Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 195
With first place on the line tonight in the NBA's Southeast Division, the Miami Heat (13-5) host the Atlanta Hawks (12-5) in a battle between easily the two best teams in this division. I look for the defensive intensity to rise more than your normal game in this one.
Miami has been talking about playing better defense after back-to-back losses to the Wizards and Knicks in which they allowed a combined 217 points. They did play much better their last time out on this end, limiting the Hornets to 90 points on 44.9 percent shooting.
"We didn't do everything right," coach Erik Spoelstra said. "We still had a handful of breakdowns. But the commitment on the defensive end was better than the past two games."
Atlanta continued its solid play defensively with a 93-83 road win at Memphis last time out. It is allowing just 93.6 points per game on 43.3 percent shooting on the season, including 90.4 points on 42.9 percent shooting on the road.
This has been a very low scoring series in the past. In fact, Miami and Atlanta have combined to score 195 or less points at the end of regulation in 15 straight meetings. Fourteen of those saw 194 or fewer points. That makes for a perfect 14-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Take the UNDER 195 points in this game Monday.
|12-09-12||Detroit Lions +7 v. Green Bay Packers||20-27||Push||0||97 h 13 m||Show|
15* Lions/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Detroit +7
The Lions are one of the best 4-8 teams in the history of the NFL. This team just continually beats itself, which is the only reason they are 4-8 right now instead of 8-4. They should have no problem getting motivated to face their NFC North rival as they want revenge from their 20-24 loss to Green Bay on November 18th, which was another game they gave away.
All eight of Detroit
|12-09-12||Orlando Magic v. Phoenix Suns -3.5||98-90||Loss||-107||9 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -3.5
The Phoenix Suns will roll at home tonight over the Orlando Magic. Phoenix comes into this game way undervalued, while Orlando is certainly overvalued due to recent results. Getting the Suns as only a 3.5-point home favorite is a gift from oddsmakers.
Phoenix is going to be highly-motivated for a win following six straight losses. The biggest reason for this losing streak is a tough schedule that has featured seven of their last eight games on the road. The Suns will certainly be looking forward to returning home tonight where they are 5-4.
Orlando is overvalued due to winning its first two games against the Lakers and Warriors on its current five-game road stand. It has lost its last two, and now it will be fatigued coming into this one as this will be its 5th road game in 8 days. The Magic are clearly one of the worst teams in the league, and they are just 3-7 on the road this season.
The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings in this series. The favorite is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings dating back to 2009. The Magic are 4-14 ATS after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Suns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games. Phoenix is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Suns Sunday.
|12-09-12||Nebraska Omaha +30.5 v. Iowa State||65-93||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska-Omaha +30.5
The Iowa State Cyclones are coming off their biggest game of the season. They lost to in-state rival Iowa 71-80 on Friday to fall to 6-3 on the season. Just two days later, I look for the Cyclones to suffer a hangover effect from that defeat.
Iowa State will have a very hard time getting up emotionally to play a Nebraska-Omaha team that is 2-8 on the season. The biggest reason for their poor record is the difficulty of their schedule. They have already played eight road games, including a 62-75 loss at Nebraska. After playing at Wisconsin last time out, this team will not be intimidated by Iowa State on the road.
This play falls into a system that is 87-35 (71.3%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (IOWA ST) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a terrible team (<=20%).
This play falls into another system that is 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (NEBRASKA-OMAHA) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games. Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Sunday.
|12-09-12||Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Seattle Seahawks||0-58||Loss||-110||93 h 8 m||Show|
15* Cardinals/Seahawks NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +10
The Arizona Cardinals should not be catching double-digit points against the Seattle Seahawks Sunday. The Cardinals are just 4-8 this season, but these division games are played closer to the vest, and they will have no problem getting up to face Seattle to try and spoil its season.
I like Arizona's chances of making a game out of this considering they will start John Skelton at quarterback this week instead of Ryan Lindley, who was absolutely atrocious in his last couple starts.
Remember, the Cardinals won five of their final six games last season to finish 8-8 with Skelton running the show. They had little to play for down the stretch last year, but showed tremendous pride. That's why I believe this team will not pack it in, especially against a division opponent in Week 14.
Seattle isn't a team built for blowout out the opposition, which is why it should not be this heavily favored Sunday. The Seahawks are only scoring 20.2 points/game on the season while ranking 24th in the league in total offense (328.6 yards/game).
The Seahawks have not been favored by more than 5.5 points in any other game this season. This is simply a case of them being overvalued due to their 5-0 record at home. Now is the time to go against that trend and back the double-digit road dog showing tremendous value.
This play falls into a system that is 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10.0 or more points (ARIZONA) - after 7 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins. This trend just goes to show that teams on long losing streaks eventually show the kind of value that you just cannot pass up. That's the case in this one. Take the Cardinals Sunday.
|12-09-12||Miami Dolphins +10 v. San Francisco 49ers||13-27||Loss||-103||93 h 48 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +10
The Miami Dolphins have been extremely competitive this season as they
|12-09-12||Baltimore Ravens v. Washington Redskins -1.5||Top||28-31||Win||100||118 h 53 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Redskins -1.5
The Redskins are playing their best football of the season right now. They have won three straight over division rivals Philadelphia, Dallas and New York to put themselves in a great position to make a run at the NFC East title with only four games remaining. They trail the Giants by just one game, but own the tiebreaker due to their division record.
Baltimore may be 9-3 this season, but a closer look at the numbers assures that it has been overachieving in the win-loss column all season. Six of its nine wins have come by 7 points or less, including five by 3 points or fewer. They have simply gotten all the breaks to go their way in close games, but that tends to even out over time.
The Ravens rank just 19th in the league in total offense at 343.2 yards per game, and 25th in total defense at 372.4 yards per game. They are getting outgained by an average of 29.2 yards per game, which is a number more indicative of a team below .500 than one that is 9-3 on the season.
Baltimore was already playing without Ray Lewis and LaDarius Webb, two of its best defensive players. Now, it is likely to be without 2011 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs for the rest of the season. Suggs suffered what was diagnosed a torn bicep in its 20-23 loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday.
That's bad news for a suspect Baltimore defense that was already going to have a hard time containing Robert Griffin III and company. The Redskins are scoring 26.0 points/game this season while ranking 7th in the league in total offense (384.1 yards/game).
The biggest offensive strength for the Redskins is a rushing attack that is ranks 1st in the league at 167.2 yards/game. Baltimore ranks just 23rd in the league against the run, yielding 125.8 yards/game on the ground.
The key to stopping the Ravens is stopping Ray Rice. While the Redskins have not been good against the pass this season, they have been tremendous against the run. Washington ranks 4th in the league in run defense, yielding just 91.5 yards/game on the ground.
The Ravens never seem to play well the week after facing Pittsburgh, by far their biggest rival in the league. They lost at home to a Big Ben-less Steelers team last week, and I look for them to suffer a hangover effect this week against the surging Redskins.
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The Ravens are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Baltimore is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 December games. Bet the Redskins Sunday.
|12-09-12||Dallas Cowboys +3.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals||20-19||Win||100||90 h 57 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Bengals NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas +3.5
As usual, the Cowboys have saved their best football for the last few months of the season. They have won three of their last four games to get right back in the playoff hunt in the NFC.
They certainly need this win a little bit more than the Bengals do considering they trail Seattle by one game for the final NFC wild-card spot, and they lost to the Seahawks earlier this season, so they are essentially two games back. They can also get in by winning the NFC East as they trail the Giants by one game.
When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that Dallas is one of the best teams in the league. Its ranks 8th in the league in total offense at 379.1 yards per game, and 11th in total defense at 336.7 yards per game. It is outgaining opponents by 42.4 yards per game, which is a number more indicative of a team that would be above .500 at this point of the season rather than one that is 6-6.
The Bengals have been playing well of late, winning four in a row straight up and four in a row ATS. Three of those wins came against the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers, which is far from impressive. This four-game winning streak against weak competition has them overvalued, and they should not be the favorite here.
This play falls into a system that is 100-58 (63.3%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on underdogs or pick (DALLAS)
|12-08-12||San Francisco v. Pacific -2.5||59-67||Win||100||19 h 36 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday West Coast BAILOUT on Pacific -2.5
Pacific should be a much heavier home favorite tonight over San Francisco. This is a much-improved Tigers team that returned all five starters from last year. I know they are just 4-4 on the year, but they have played a ridiculously tough schedule.
Pacific's four losses have come against Gonzaga, California, Oral Roberts and Fresno State. It has wins on a neutral court over both Xavier and St. Mary's despite being an 8-point dog against the Musketeers, and a 10-point dog against the Gaels. It also beat Nevada last time out at home.
San Francisco is simply overvalued due to its 5-1 start against a very soft schedule. It has played four of those six games at home, while losing to Stanford 62-74 on a neutral court, and winning at American in its only true road game. This road trip to Pacific will be the Dons' toughest game of the season to this point.
Pacific is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. It is outscoring teams by an average of 11.9 points/game in this spot. The Dons are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. Big West. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. WCC opponents. Roll with Pacific Saturday.
|12-08-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 187.5||79-92||Win||100||18 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Celtics UNDER 187.5
This one is about as obvious as it gets folks. It sets up perfectly for a low-scoring game, and I look for Boston and Philadelphia to not even come close to approaching this 187.5-point total.
Both teams will be playing the second of a back-to-back in this home and home situation. Making matters tougher for both teams is the fact that they went to overtime last night, and looked very tired down the stretch. They combined for just 178 points at the end of regulation, and 189 points after OT.
Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett were really dragging for the Celtics, while the 76ers time and time again were up against the shot clock down the stretch. The familiarity between these teams after playing last night will make points extremely tough to come by.
Pierce, Rajon Rondo and Jason Terry all played more than 42 minutes for the Celtics last night, while Jrue Holiday, Jason Richardson, Evan Turner and Thaddeus Young played more than 41 minutes for the 76ers.
The UNDER is 6-2 in 76ers last 8 road games. The UNDER is 7-3 in 76ers last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games playing on 0 days' rest. The UNDER is 13-4-1 in Celtics last 18 Saturday games. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-08-12||Richmond -3 v. James Madison||83-82||Loss||-114||18 h 36 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Richmond -3
The Richmond Spiders should be a bigger favorite over James Madison Saturday. With three starters back, head coach Chris Mooney once again has an underrated squad. Richmond is off to a 7-2 start this season with its only losses coming on the road at Minnesota (10.5-point dog) and Ohio (7.5-point dog).
James Madison is just 3-5 on the season and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. It has some ugly losses this season, including a 30-point loss to UCLA, a 22-point loss to North Dakota State, and an 18-point loss to Miami (Ohio). Its only wins have come against East Tennessee State, Winthrop and Youngstown State.
This play falls into a system that is 50-19 (72.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (RICHMOND) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%).
James Madison is 1-9 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. James Madison is 0-10 ATS in home games on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons. The Dukes are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 home games overall. Bet Richmond Saturday.
|12-08-12||Navy -7 v. Army||Top||17-13||Loss||-104||109 h 15 m||Show|
20* Army/Navy Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy -7
This is a big mismatch once again in 2012 just as it has been over the past decade in this series. I look for the Navy Midshipmen (7-4) to roll by more than a touchdown over the Army Black Knights (2-9) Saturday in one of the biggest rivalries in the country.
Navy is 10-0 in its last 10 meetings with Army. Most of these games haven't even been close as nine of the ten wins came by 12 points or more. Navy did only win 27-21 last season, but its football program was way down last year. It is back to being dominant once again in 2012, especially of late.
The Midshipmen have won six of their last seven games overall. This amazing run to end the season coincided with a change at quarterback. Freshman Keenan Reynolds led Navy to a comeback win over Air Force on October 6th and he has ran away with the job ever since.
Reynolds gives Navy a dual-threat quarterback with his ability to hit open receivers, which has made all the difference. Reynolds has completed 57.5 percent of his passes for 754 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. He has also rushed for 585 yards and nine scores.
Navy's ability to pass the ball is going to be one of the biggest reasons they win and cover in this game. Unlike Army, they hardly have to worry about defending the pass. Army quarterback Trent Steelman is completing just 45.9 percent of his passes for 619 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
Not only do the Midshipmen have the edge through the air, but they also have the edge defending the run. Navy gives up 161 rushing yards/game and 4.3/carry, while Army yields 238 rushing yards/game and 5.7/carry. Simply put, the Midshipmen have the advantage in every phase of this game and should be a bigger favorite because of it.
Navy is 18-3 ATS in road games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) since 1992. Army is 0-7 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Midshipmen are 68-32 ATS in their last 100 road games. The Black Knights are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Navy Saturday.
|12-08-12||Arkansas +16.5 v. Michigan||67-80||Win||100||11 h 37 m||Show|
15* Arkansas/Michigan CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Arkansas +16.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks are much improved in Mike Anderson's second year on the job. Sure, they are just 4-3 this season, but they have played a very tough schedule. They have already faced Syracuse, Wisconsin, Arizona State and Oklahoma. They didn't lose any of those four games by more than 15 points, and they lost by just 7 to Wisconsin and by 9 to Syracuse.
Michigan has a very good good team this season. However, they are overvalued due to their 8-0 start. They beat Pitt by 5, Kansas State by 14, NC State by 7 and Bradley by 8. If those four teams could stay within 16 points of the Wolverines, I have no doubt that Arkansas can as well.
This play falls into a system that is 58-25 (69.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (MICHIGAN) - after 8 or more consecutive wins, undefeated on the season.
This play falls into another system that is 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (ARKANSAS) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=45% on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 4 straight games making >=47% of their shots. Take Arkansas Saturday.
|12-07-12||Orlando Magic v. Sacramento Kings -2.5||82-91||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
15* Magic/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2.5
The Orlando Magic are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as just a 2.5-point underdog to the Sacramento Kings tonight. I look for the home team to roll to a double-digit victory and easily cover this generous spread Friday.
Sacramento realizes it needs to start stringing some wins together if it wants to have any chance of making the playoffs come season's send. It is coming off a solid 107-100 home victory over Toronto. This team will be fresh and ready to go tonight as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.
Orlando is on its fourth game of a grueling five-game road trip. It is getting way too much respect for victories over the Lakers and Warriors to start this trip as both of those teams were likely over looking the Magic. This will be their 4th road game in 6 days, and they won't be able to match the energy level of the Kings on their tired legs.
The Magic are 33-51 ATS after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons. Sacramento has won 10 of its last 15 home meetings with Orlando. The Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Roll with Sacramento Friday.
|12-07-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 210.5||Top||108-114||Loss||-110||10 h 14 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Thunder ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 210.5
These familiar foes will do battle tonight on ESPN in front of a nationally televised audience. Oklahoma State took out Los Angeles in five games in the playoffs last season, so there is sure to be some added intensity in this one tonight.
I look for that added intensity to lead to a lower-scoring, defensive battle. I believe oddsmakers have simply set the bar too high in this one. When you look at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that is the case.
Eight straight meetings (not including overtime) between the Lakers and Thunder have seen 209 or less combined points at the end of regulation. In fact, six of those eight meetings saw 196 or less points. That makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.
Los Angeles is running a new system under Mike D'Antoni, but that system cannot be 100% effective without two important pieces. Steve Nash remains out with a leg injury, while Pau Gasol is doubtful as he deals with a knee injury. The Lakers' offense will not be hitting on all cylinders tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 35-9 (79.5%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making >=50% of their shots. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|12-07-12||Denver Nuggets +1.5 v. Indiana Pacers||92-89||Win||100||8 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +1.5
The Denver Nuggets should not be an underdog to the Indiana Pacers tonight in a game I believe they'll win outright. They are the better team and will simply want this one more.
Denver has lost four of its last five games, including three road losses by a combined 7 points to the Jazz, Warriors and Hawks. It will be highly motivated for a victory after this tough recent stretch, and I still believe this is one of the best teams in the league, which will show by season's end.
Indiana has won four of its last five coming in and will relax because of it. The Pacers are riding high right now because all four of those wins have come by a combined 18 points, so they have been pulling games late. With a road trip to Oklahoma City on deck, the Pacers could be overlooking the Nuggets here.
The Nuggets are 40-24 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 5-17 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers are 17-37 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Denver is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 vs. NBA Central foes, and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 meetings with Indiana. Take the Nuggets Friday.
|12-06-12||Denver Broncos -10 v. Oakland Raiders||Top||26-13||Win||100||67 h 4 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Raiders NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Denver -10
The Broncos are the hottest team in the league heading into Week 14. They have won seven straight while going 5-1-1 ATS in the process. All seven victories have come by 7 points or more as well, so it
|12-06-12||New York Knicks v. Miami Heat UNDER 201||112-92||Loss||-104||9 h 46 m||Show|
15* Knicks/Heat TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 201
This is one of the biggest games of the early season. New York wants to show Miami that it is a legitimate contender in the East with a win tonight. I look for the defensive intensity to be at the highest level for both teams and for points to be very hard to come by.
These teams already met once this season on November 2nd with New York beating Miami 104-84 for 188 combined points. I look for a similar final combined total tonight as this one stays well below the number.
In fact, the Knicks and Heat have combined to score 200 or less points in 11 straight meetings. That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.
This play falls into a system that is 46-14 (76.7%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|12-06-12||Creighton v. Nebraska +7||64-42||Loss||-103||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +7
The Nebraska Cornhuskers should not be an underdog at home to the Creighton Blue Jays tonight, let alone a 7-point dog. Creighton comes in way overvalued as the No. 16 team in the country, and they simply cannot live up to the expectations against the spread that they have created for themselves.
Nebraska is certainly one of the most underrated teams in the country. It is off to a 6-1 start this season that includes wins over Valparaiso, Wake Forest and USC. While the Huskers return just one starter, they have three veteran players leading this team. They are seniors Dylan Talley (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Brandon Ubel (14.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG) as well as junior Ray Gallegos (14.0 PPG).
Home-court advantage has been huge in this in-state rivalry between Creighton and Nebraska. The home team has won seven straight meetings in this series. Creighton's last win at Nebraska came back in 2004 by a final of 50-48. This will be the first true road game for the Blue Jays all season, which is always tough.
The Bluejays are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Creighton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games overall. Nebraska is 26-10 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game since 1997. Roll with Nebraska Thursday.
|12-05-12||Orlando Magic v. Utah Jazz -8||81-87||Loss||-105||10 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -8
Off three straight losses to the Thunder, Rockets and Clippers, I look for the Utah Jazz to bounce back with a blowout home victory tonight over the Orlando Magic. There's no question the Jazz will be highly motivated after blowing a 14-point lead in the second half to lose 104-105 to the Clippers last time out.
This is the perfect storm. Utah will be hungry for a win, while Orlando is in a huge letdown spot following back-to-back road wins over the Lakers and Warriors. It's only human nature for the Magic to let down after those two big wins, and they won't be able to match the intensity of the Jazz because of it.
Utah is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.8 points/game. It is only allowing 94.6 points/game on 42.0% shooting at home this year. Points will certainly be hard to come by for an Orlando team that is only averaging 90.6 points/game on 41.9% shooting on the road.
The Jazz are a 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with Orlando. They have won each of their last three home meetings with the Magic by 9 points or more, and that was when they had Dwight Howard. Take the Jazz Wednesday.
|12-05-12||New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats +8||Top||100-98||Win||100||8 h 19 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats +8
The Miami Heat were overlooking the Washington Wizards last night and looking ahead to their Thursday showdown with the New York Knicks on TNT. They lost to the Wizards last night because they did not give Washington their full attention.
Now, the same will be the case for the Knicks tonight. They will not give the Charlotte Bobcats their full attention as they look ahead to tomorrow's big showdown with the Heat. There is a very good chance New York loses outright because of it as well.
Charlotte will have no problem getting motivated to face the Knicks tonight. It has lost four straight coming in, including the last three all by 6 points or less. The Bobcats blew a late 18-point lead to the Blazers last time out with just over five minutes remaining in regulation, eventually losing in overtime. They will be up for this game because of it.
The Knicks are unbeaten at home this season, but when they leave Madison Square Garden it's another story. New York is just 5-4 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by only 2.7 points/game. Charlotte is a very respectable 5-5 at home this season, and this is certainly a much-improved team from a year ago. Bet the Bobcats Wednesday.
|12-05-12||Ohio v. Memphis -3.5||58-84||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis -3.5
The Memphis Tigers should be a much bigger favorite at home tonight over the Ohio Bobcats. I'll gladly take advantage of this line mistake and back the Tigers in what I believe will be a blowout in their favor by game's end.
Ohio is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to its 6-1 start. Its six wins have all come at home against lesser competition in Portland, UNC-Wilmington, Wofford, Hampton, Richmond and St. Bonaventure. Its lone loss came on the road by a final of 76-84 against Robert Morris.
Memphis has played a much tougher schedule, which is why it is off to just a 4-2 start this season. Its losses have both come on a neutral court to Minnesota and Virginia Commonwealth. It does have a solid neutral court victory over a very good Northern Iowa team.
Because of the tough schedule, the Tigers are certainly the more battle-tested team coming in, and they'll be more prepared for a quality team like Ohio because of it. The Bobcats will not be ready as this will be by far their toughest test of the season.
Memphis is 3-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 18.7 points/game. It is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games overall. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with Memphis Wednesday.