15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-120)

The Chicago White Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall and have scored 4 or more runs in all 12 games and 5 or more runs in 11 of them.  They are hitting as well as anyone in baseball right now and should put another beat down on the Orioles after winning 12-1 Friday and 8-3 Saturday.

Dylan Cease is 7-4 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.299 WHIP in 17 starts this season for the White Sox.  He faced Baltimore on May 27th in his lone career start against them and held them to one earned run in 6 innings with 10 K's in a 5-1 victory for Chicago.  He'll be opposed by Spenser Watkins, who will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Orioles.

Chicago is 42-14 in its last 56 games as a favorite.  The Orioles are 12-41 in their last 52 games overall.  The White Sox are 7-0 in the last six meetings.  Baltimore is 0-15 in its last 15 games after a 5-game span where the bullpen ERA was 7.00 or worse.   Take the White Sox on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado Rockies +166

German Marquez has been too good of late to be this big of an underdog to the San Diego Padres.  Marquez has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts, including one earned run or fewer in seven of those nine.

Joe Musgrove has come back down to reality of late for the Padres.  He is 1-0 with a 10.00 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 innings to the Reds and Nationals.

The Rockies are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall and playing well here entering the All-Star Break.  The value on Marquez is too good to pass up tonight.  Roll with the Rockies Saturday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves +102

The Atlanta Braves sit at 43-44 this season and have been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball.  They will be motivated to try to get back to .500 prior to the All-Star Break with a sweep of the Marlins in this series, and it started with a 5-0 win in Game 1 last night.

I'm back on the Braves today with Max Fried on the mound.  Fried has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts, including exactly one earned run in six of those 10.  He'll be opposed by Trevor Rogers, who is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in two career starts against the Braves.

Miami is 7-23 after scoring two runs or less this season.  Atlanta is 40-17 in the last 57 meetings.  The Marlins are 1-11 after playing five or more consecutive home games this season.  Fried is 27-8 following a team win over the last two seasons.  The Braves are 41-17 in Fried's last 58 starts.  Take the Braves Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-130)

The Chicago White Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall and have scored 4 or more runs in all 11 games and 5 or more runs in 10 of them.  They are hitting as well as anyone in baseball right now and should put another beat down on the Orioles similar to the 12-1 win yesterday.

Lucas Giolito is back to being his same dominant self by allowing 3 earned runs or less in nine of his last 12 starts.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven of those.  He held the Orioles to one run in 7 innings with 12 K's on May 30th in his last start against them.

He'll be opposed by Tom Eshelman, who is 0-1 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in four starts this season.  That includes 0-1 with a 9.25 ERA and 2.057 WHIP in his last three starts coming in.  It's safe to say the White Sox have a huge advantage on the mound tonight.

Chicago is 41-14 in its last 55 games as a favorite.  The Orioles are 12-40 in their last 52 games overall.  The White Sox are 6-0 in the last six meetings.  Baltimore is 0-14 in its last 14 games after a 5-game span where the bullpen ERA was 7.00 or worse.  Giolito is 15-3 against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a .260 average or worse over the last three seasons.  Bet the White Sox on the Run Line Saturday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -115

The Atlanta Braves sit at 42-44 this season and have been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball.  They will be motivated to try to get back to .500 prior to the All-Star Break with a sweep of the Marlins in this series, and it starts with Game 1 tonight.

I like the fact that the Braves had yesterday off and are rested while the Marlins are coming off a huge 3-1 series win over the Dodgers yesterday and are in a letdown spot.  And I think Zach Thompson of the Marlins is getting too much respect for what he has done in only five starts this season.

I'll gladly back Charlie Morton over Thompson here tonight.  Morton is 7-3 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in six road starts.

Miami is 7-22 after scoring two runs or less this season.  The Marlins are 12-30 vs. a starting pitcher that allows 5.5 or fewer hits per start this season.  Miami is 2-9 in its last 11 games vs. a starting pitcher with a 1.15 WHIP or better.  Atlanta is 39-17 in the last 56 meetings.  Bet the Braves Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Blue Jays +118

The Toronto Blue Jays are 11-5 in their last 16 games overall.  They have won 10 of those 11 games by two runs or more.  And they should not be underdogs to the Tampa Bay Rays tonight.

The Blue Jays have the advantage on the mound again tonight.  Alek Manoah has yet to lose this season, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.009 WHIP in seven starts.  He has pitched 13 innings in his last two starts without allowing a single earned run against the Orioles and Rays.

Manoah pitched 7 shutout innings with 10 K's in an 11-1 win over the Rays in his last start on July 2nd.  He'll be opposed by Shane McClanahan, who has posted a 4.02 ERA in 12 starts this season, including a 4.63 ERA in five home starts.  The Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last six road games.  Roll with the Blue Jays Friday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox -132

The Chicago White Sox (51-35) should be much bigger favorites over the Baltimore Orioles (28-58) tonight.  They have the advantage on the mound and at the plate tonight and should win going away.

Dallas Keuchel is 6-3 with a 4.43 ERA in 16 starts this season for the White Sox.  Keuchel is 4-2 with a 3.23 ERA in nine career starts against the Orioles as well.

He'll be opposed by Jorge Lopez, who is 2-11 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in 17 starts this season for the Orioles.  Lopez is 1-2 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in three career starts against the White Sox.

Baltimore is 3-17 in its last 20 home games after losing two of its last three games coming in.  Chicago is 40-14 in its last 54 games as a favorite.  The Orioles are 12-39 in their last 51 games overall.  The White Sox are 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Take the White Sox Friday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

I lost on the Bucks +6 in Game 1 for a rare loss recently in these playoffs as I have been pretty spot on.  I like the value I got as the Bucks closed as 5-point dogs after it was announced that Giannis would play, but there were still questions about how effective he would be.

I think Giannis answered those questions in Game 1 with 20 points and 17 rebounds on 6-of-11 shooting in over 35 minutes of action.  And with a healthy Giannis in Game 2, the Bucks should not be even bigger 5.5-point underdogs to the Phoenix Suns Thursday night.

We've seen the Suns win and cover in all three Game 1's in these playoffs, but they've gone 1-2 ATS in their three Game 2's.  I think they will relax a little here and the Bucks will be playing with more of a sense of urgency in Game 2 to try and even this series heading back to Milwaukee.

The Suns had a huge advantage at the free throw line in Game 1 that isn't likely to happen again.  They made 16 more free throws than the Bucks, who only attempted 16 for the game.  Milwaukee is a great team at getting to the rim and drawing fouls and should get more benefit from the whistles in Game 2.  Bet the Bucks Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-127)

Matt Harvey is one of my favorite starters to fade as he is one of the worst starters in baseball.  That has shown this season as he is 3-9 with a 7.34 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in 17 starts.  He is 0-7 with a 10.85 ERA in his last 10 starts while allowing 45 earned runs in 37 1/3 innings as well.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been solid for the Blue Jays this season at 7-5 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.153 WHIP in 16 starts, including 4-3 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.039 WHIp in nine road starts.  He has never lost to the Orioles, going 3-0 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Harvey has allowed 7 earned runs and 18 base runners in 11 innings across two starts against the Blue Jays in 2021.  Baltimore is 3-16 in home games after losing two of its last three games this season, losing by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.

Toronto is 11-1 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher with a 5.90 ERA or worse over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 3.8 runs per game in this spot.  Ryu is 52-17 against the money line vs. a team with a losing record in his career with his teams winning by 2.7 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Blue Jays Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +131

The Detroit Tigers have been criminally underrated over the last couple months.  They have gone 30-23 in their last 53 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  And now they are big road dogs to the lowly Texas Rangers, who are just 34-52 this season and shouldn't be this big of favorites against anyone.

Detroit sends its best starter to the mound today in Casey Mize.  He is 5-5 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 16 starts this season with the Tigers going 9-7 (+8.2 units) in those starts.  He has been at his best on the road at 3-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in nine starts away from home.

Kyle Gibson has posted spectacular numbers this season for the Rangers, but he simply cannot keep this up for an entire season.  Gibson is 10-9 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in 22 career starts against Detroit.

Mize is 7-3 (+9.8 units) after a team loss this season.  Detroit is 10-3 (+10.1 units) in Wednesday games this season.  Texas is 15-41 vs. a starting pitcher that walks 1.75 or fewer batters per start over the last two seasons.  The Rangers are 18-35 in their last 53 games overall.  Texas is 14-33 in its last 47 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Tigers Wednesday.

25* MLB Pre-All Star Break GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Braves -136

The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday afternoon.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates and definitely want to avoid the sweep.

I like their chances with a big advantage on the mound today that should warrant them being bigger favorites than this given the situation.  Drew Smyly is 3-0 with a 0.52 ERA and 0.865 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just one earned run in 17 1/3 innings.

He'll be opposed by William Crowe, who is 1-5 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.570 WHIP in 11 starts thsi season.  Crowe has posted an 8.59 ERA and 2.456 WHIP in two career starts against the Braves, allowing 7 earned runs, 4 homers and 18 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.

Atlanta is 67-24 in its last 91 road games revenging a loss as a road favorite of -150 or more.  Pittsburgh is 3-18 in its last 21 Wednesday games.  Smyly is 11-0 vs. terrible speed teams that average 0.35 or fewer stolen bases per game in the second half of the season in his career.  Smyly is 7-0 in road games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse over the last three seasons.  Bet the Braves Wednesday.

20* Bucks/Suns ABC No-Brainer on Milwaukee +6

I cashed in the Bucks in Games 5 and Games 6 against the Atlanta Hawks without Giannis.  The loss of him has created a big overreaction from the oddsmakers and the betting public, and that looks to be the case again in Game 1 against the Phoenix Suns as he is listed as doubtful.

The Bucks have now gone 8-2 this season in games that Kris Middleton has played in which Giannis hasn't.  Middleton, Holiday, Lopez and Portis combined for 106 points in the Game 5 win over the Hawks.  Middleton had 32 points and Holiday 27 in the Game 6 win.  Those are two of the most underrated players in the NBA and fully capable of keeping the Bucks competitive in this series without Giannis.

The Suns won both regular season meetings, but by just one point each.  I look for Game 1 to go down to the wire as well, so there is value in getting the Bucks as 6-point underdogs.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -115

The Chicago White Sox will be highly motivated for a victory following three straight losses despite scoring 5 runs in all three defeats.  That kind of run support will be good enough to give Cy Young contender Carlos Rodon a win tonight.

Rodon is 6-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in 14 starts this season with 122 K's in 83 2/3 innings.  He has been at his best away from home, going 4-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in seven road starts.

Chicago is 26-8 vs. AL teams that allow 4.9 or more runs per game over the last two seasons.  The White Sox are 44-17 in their last 61 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 9-2 in its last 11 meetings with Minnesota.  Take the White Sox Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +157

The Detroit Tigers have been criminally underrated over the last couple months.  They have gone 30-22 in their last 52 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  And now they are big road dogs to the lowly Texas Rangers, who are just 33-52 this season.

I cashed in the Tigers yesterday as +142 underdogs and I'm back on them again today as even bigger +157 dogs.  The Rangers just shouldn't be this big of a favorite against anyone.  And it's not like Dane Dunning has been great as he is just 3-6 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.513 WHIP in 16 starts this season for Texas.

Jose Urena is 16-9 (+15.8 units) against the money line in road games in the second half of the season in his career.  Detroit is a very profitable 14-11 (+10.1 units) as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season.  The Rangers are 17-35 in their last 52 games overall.  Texas is 13-33 in its last 46 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Tigers Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers -125

I'll gladly jump on this opportunity to back the Los Angeles Dodgers as a short road favorite over the lowly Miami Marlins tonight.  The Dodgers have such a big advantage at the plate that makes up for the perceived disadvantage on the mound.

But Tony Gonsolin is one of the more underrated starters in the big leagues for the Dodgers as well.  He has posted a 2.77 ERA in his four starts this season and the Dodgers have gone 4-0 in those four starts.

The Dodgers are 87-34 in their last 121 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Los Angeles is 36-16 in its last 52 games overall.  Miami is 23-53 in its last 76 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the Dodgers Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-112)

The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated to bounce back from their 11-1 loss to the Pirates in Game 1 of this series as nearly -200 favorites.  I expect them to win Game 2 by two runs or more due to their advantage on the mound.

Ian Anderson is 5-4 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in eight road starts.  He fired six shutout innings in a 20-1 win over the Pirates on May 21st in his only career starts against them.  He'll be opposed by Chad Kuhl, who is 2-5 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in 10 starts this season.

Atlanta is 29-11 after scoring two runs or less over the last two seasons, coming back to win by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  Pittsburgh is 4-18 vs. NL teams that score 4.5 or more runs per game this season, losing by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  Atlanta is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +142

The Detroit Tigers have been criminally underrated over the last couple months.  They have gone 29-22 in their last 51 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  And now they are big road dogs to the lowly Texas Rangers, who are just 33-51 this season.

Kolby Allard and the Rangers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today.  Allard is 1-4 with a 3.66 ERA in six starts this season, including 0-2 with a 4.24 ERA in three home starts.  Wily Peralta has pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings in his last two starts against the Astros and Indians to improve to 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in three starts this season for the Tigers.

Texas is 5-21 in its last 26 games after playing three or more consecutive road games.  The Rangers are 13-32 in their last 45 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Texas is 15-37 in its last 52 games during Game 1 of a series.  The Rangers are 15-33 in their last 48 games overall.  Roll with the Tigers Monday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -110

We just saw this matchup between Dylan Cease and Bailey Ober on June 30th less than a week ago.  The White Sox won 13-3 as Cease held the Twins to two earned runs in 6 innings.  Ober allowed 5 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings to take the loss.

That dropped Ober to 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.379 WHIP in six starts this season.  He is 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in three home starts.  Cease has been solid all season at 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 16 starts.

Chicago is 8-1 vs. Minnesota this season.  The White Sox are 38-13 in their last 51 games as favorites.  The Twins are 1-5 in their last six games overall.  Minnesota is 8-21 in its last 29 games as an underdog.  

Cease is 10-0 against the money line vs. teams with a losing record this season.  Chicago is winning by 6.0 runs per game in this spot.  Take the White Sox Monday.

20* NL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-111)

The Atlanta Braves are finally starting to play up to their potential.  They have gone 4-1 in their last five games while scoring a combined 35 runs during this stretch.  Now they are one more win away from getting to .500 on the season.

They should handle the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chase De Jong tonight.  The Pirates are 1-6 in their last seven games with all six losses by two runs or more to fall to 30-53 this season.  De Jong has struggled mightily at 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.570 WHIP in his six starts this season.

Max Fried is really coming around for the Braves.  He is 5-3 with a 2.79 ERA in his last nine starts while allowing just 16 earned runs in 51 2/3 innings.  He has allowed exactly one earned run in six of those nine starts.  Fried held the Pirates to one run in 7 innings of a 7-1 victory on May 23rd in his lone start against them this season.

Fried is 11-1 against the money line vs. NL Central opponents in his career.  The Braves are winning by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -148

The Seattle Mariners have quietly gone 44-40 this season.  They take on a Texas Rangers team that is just 33-50 this season, including 13-29 in road games.  And I'm willing to lay this number with the Mariners due to their advantage on the mound tonight.

Chris Flexen has been dominant at home this season for the Mariners.  He is 4-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in eight home starts.  He is also 1-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in his last three starts.  Flexen has never lost to the Rangers, going 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in three career starts against them, two of which have come in 2021.

Mike Foltynewicz is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has really struggled on the road this season, going 1-3 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six starts away from home.  Foltynewicz has never beaten the Mariners, going 0-2 with a 5.58 ERA in three career starts against them, two of which have come in 2021.

The Rangers 16-48 in their last 64 road games.  Seattle is 13-5 in its last 18 games overall.  The Mariners are 20-6 in their last 26 home meetings, and 13-3 in the last 16 meetings overall.  Bet the Mariners Sunday.

20* Bucks/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2

I cashed in the Bucks in Game 5 and I'm back on them again in Game 6 due to the line value.  Consider that the Bucks were 8 and 8.5-point home favorites in Games 1 and 2.  And they were 5 and 8.5-point road favorites in Games 3 and 4.  Then they were -2 for Game 5 at the time we bet them and cashed that ticket.  Now they are underdogs for the first time in this series in Game 6.

The value is clearly with the Bucks, who have actually gone 7-2 SU this season in games that Kris Middleton has played in which Giannis hasn't.  The loss of Giannis is getting a big overreaction from the betting public and oddsmakers.  Trae Young has also missed the last two games for the Hawks and he is almost more important to them than Giannis is to the Bucks.  Young is questionable to return tonight and won't be anywhere near 100% if he does.

Middleton and Jrue Holiday are two of the most underrated players in the NBA.  Middleton had 26 points, 13 rebounds and 8 assists in Game 5 while Holiday added 25 points and 13 assists.  They got Brook Lopez involved as he scored 33 points, and Bobby Portis had 22.  There is just more talent outside of Giannis on their team than there is on the Hawks outside of Young.  Bet the Bucks Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -117

The Chicago White Sox are 33-7 vs. left-handed starters over the last two seasons and winning by 3.1 runs per game.  They are 8-0 after scoring 8 runs or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.

The White Sox come in hot at the plate scoring 7 runs or more in five straight games during their five-game winning streak.  They should stay hot against Detroit lefty Tarik Skubal, who si 4-6 with a 4.12 ERA in 14 starts this season.  Skubal is 1-1 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in three career starts against the White Sox.

Dallas Keuchel is 6-2 with a 3.87 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.87 ERA in his last three.  He is 4-2 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.251 WHIP in nine career starts against the Tigers as well and his teams have gone 7-2 in those starts.  Roll with the White Sox Saturday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -118

I cashed in the Braves as a short home favorite yesterday and I'm back on them today at a similar price.  It's rare that you get the opportunity to back the Braves as this short of a home favorite against the Miami Marlins and we'll take advantage today.

The Braves have the superior lineup which makes up for whatever perceived disadvantage they have on the mound.  But I like what I've seen from Kyle Muller thus far as he has posted a 1.00 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in his two starts this season, allowing just one earned run and 6 base runners in 9 innings with 12 K's.

Sandy Alcantara is 4-7 despite a 3.04 ERA and 1.060 WHIP in his 17 starts this season.  That's because the Marlins struggle to score runs as they average just 3.9 runs per game this season and 3.8 runs per game against left-handed starters.  The Braves are scoring 5.4 runs per game at home this season.

Miami is 1-10 in road games vs. left-handed starters this season.  The Marlins are 5-22 after scoring two runs or less this season.  The Braves are 38-16 in the last 54 meetings.  Take the Braves Saturday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants -139

The San Francisco Giants will be looking to bounce back from an upset loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks yesterday. They have now lost four straight games overall and will be highly motivated for a victory.

Alex Wood gets the ball for the Giants tonight and is 6-3 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He'll be opposed by Zac Gallen, who is 1-3 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.256 WHIP in eight starts, including 0-2 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.378 WHIP in his last three.

Wood is 5-4 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Diamondbacks, including 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three while allowing just 4 earned runs in 16 innings. Gallen is 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA in his last two starts against the Giants, allowing 8 earned runs in 7 2/3 innings.

Arizona is 2-31 vs. a starting pitcher that averages 5 or more K's per start this season. The Giants are 42-18 in their last 60 games as favorites. Bet the Giants Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/A's OVER 8.5

The total has been set too low for this game against the Red Sox and A's, which have two of the more underrated lineups in baseball. And there is 10 MPH winds forecast to be blowing out to center in Oakland tonight to held aid this OVER.

The Red Sox are scoring 5.3 runs per game against right-handed starters this season while the A's are scoring 4.7 runs per game against left-handed starters. Righy Frankie Montas goes for the A's and lefty Eduardo Rodriquez goes for the Red Sox.

Rodriquez is 6-4 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.411 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 6.24 ERA and 1.612 WHIP in 10 road starts. He is 0-3 with a 7.92 ERA in his last four starts against the A's, allowing 17 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings. Montas is 7-7 with a 4.72 ERA in 16 starts this season and has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.

The OVER is 21-6 in Rodriquez's last 27 road starts. The OVER is 7-1 in A's last eight home games. Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Marlins/Braves NL East ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -114

It's rare that you will get the opportunity to back the Atlanta Braves as this short of a home favorite over the Miami Marlins and we'll take advantage today. The Braves are coming alive with 24 runs in their last two games and they just beat Jacob DeGrom and the Mets yesterday.

Now they face Pablo Lopez and the Marlins. While Lopez has been awesome at home this season, he is just 2-1 with a 4.10 ERA in his seven road starts. Lopez is 2-6 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Braves as well. He has allowed 10 earned runs in 7 innings in his last two starts against them.

Drew Smyly has rebounded from a poor start this season to go 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 1.020 WHIp in his last three starts. Smyly is 2-1 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in three career starts against the Marlins as well.

The Marlins are 20-46 in their last 66 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Miami is 4-13 in its last 17 road games. Atlanta is 37-16 in the last 53 meetings, including 22-8 in the last 30 home meetings. Roll with the Braves Friday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -112

The St. Louis Cardinals finally got on track by sweeping the Arizona Diamondbacks last series. I look for them to carry that momentum into Game 1 of this series with the Colorado Rockies Thursday.

The Cardinals clearly have the advantage on the mound in this one. Adam Wainwright is 6-5 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in his last three. He is 10-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Rockies as well.

Wainwright shut out the Rockies in 8 1/3 innings of a 2-0 victory on May 9th in his lone start against them this season. He'll be opposed by Antonio Senzatela, who is 2-7 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in 15 starts this season. Senzatela is 2-3 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in six career starts against St. Louis as well.

The Cardinals are 29-13 in their last 42 road games with a line of +100 to -150. Wainwright is 35-12 in July starts in his career. St. Louis is 47-19 in the last 66 meetings. Roll with the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Hawks/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -2

We are getting great value on the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 5 tonight when you compare the previous lines in this series. We'll take advantage and back the Bucks as a short home favorite.

The Bucks were 8-point home favorites in Game 1, 8.5-point home favorites in Game 2, 5-point road favorites in Game 3 and 8.5-point road favorites in Game 4. So this is a huge adjustment and it's not warranted, even with the injury to Giannis.

The Hawks rallied without Trae Young in Game 4, and the Bucks will do the same thing without Giannis in Game 5. There's still enough talent on this team to get the job done and hold serve while Giannis misses at least one game. And the Hawks could be missing two of their best players in Young and Clint Capela, who are both questionable.

Plays on any team (Milwaukee) - revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 53-24 (68.8%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Bucks Thursday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -124

The Los Angeles Dodgers are about as healthy as they have been all season right now and it's starting to show. They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and come in rested after sweeping the Giants and having yesterday off.

The Washington Nationals are also playing well right now, but they just played yesterday and won't be as fresh. I'll gladly fade Pat Corbin, who is 5-6 with a 5.34 ERA in 15 starts for the Nationals this season.

One of those starts came against the Dodgers on April 10th when Corbin allowed 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 5-9 loss. And Tony Gonsolin is criminally underrated when he starts for the Dodgers because he isn't a big name. Gonsolin has posted a 2.77 ERA as a starter this season.

The Dodgers are 15-1 in their last 16 games after playing six or more consecutive home games. Corbin is 0-9 as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons. Corbin is 1-10 vs. NL teams that average 4.5 or more runs per game over the last two seasons. Take the Dodgers Thursday.

20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on Phoenix +1

The Los Angeles Clippers had one of those shooting performances in Game 5 that is simply tough to overcome.  They won't shoot that well again in Game 6, and I fully expect the Suns to close out this series.

The Clippers shot 54.8% from the field and 93.3% from the free throw line in Game 5.  Paul George went 15-of-20 shooting and Reggie Jackson went 8-of-14 while Marcus Morris went 9-of-16.  It's unlikely those three shoot that well again as they are asked to carry the brunt of the scoring load.

The Suns shot 55.1% in Game 1 and 50% in Game 2 before falling down to 38.9% in Game 3, 36% in Game 4 and 45.2% in Game 5.  Look for them to get back to closer to 50% in Game 6 tonight.

Phoenix is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite.  The Suns are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more.  Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Suns are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Astros OVER 9.5

The Baltimore Orioles have scored 9 and 13 runs in the first two games of this series while pulling two huge upsets. Their bats are really coming together and after getting to both Zack Greinke and Jose Urquidy, they'll be able to get to Luis Garcia today as well.

The Astros are more than capable of covering this OVER on their own if need be. They are the best hitting team in baseball. They hit .277 as a team and score 5.6 runs per game.

Matt Harvey is one of my favorite starters to fade this season, and we'll fade him by backing the OVER here. Harvey is 3-9 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.735 WHIP in 16 starts this season. He has never beaten the Astros, going 0-3 with a 12.79 ERA and 2.052 WHIP in three career starts against them.

The OVER is 12-2 in Orioles last 14 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The OVER is 20-7 in Orioles last 27 games with a total set of 9 to 10.5. The OVER is 7-0 in Astros last seven games as a home favorite. The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)

The Toronto Blue Jays have George Springer back healthy and one of the most potent lineups in baseball.  They have gone 8-1 in their last nine games overall with seven wins by two runs or more.  They have scored 5 runs or more seven times during this stretch.

The Blue Jays have a big advantage on the mound tonight that should have them winning by two runs or more again. Steven Matz is 7-3 with a 4.26 ERA in 13 starts this season. He'll be opposed by Justus Sheffield, who is 5-7 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in 13 starts this season. 

Sheffield is 1-4 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.806 WHIP in six road starts this season, and 0-3 with an 8.78 ERA and 1.950 WHIP in his last three starts. He gave up 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 4 innings to the Blue Jays in his only career start against them.

Seattle is 20-94 in its last 114 games as an underdog of +200 or more and losing by 2.6 runs per game in this spot. The Mariners are 12-32 in their last 44 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Bucks/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on Atlanta +7

We are getting great value on the Atlanta Hawks in Game 4 tonight. They go from being 4.5-point underdogs in Game 3 to 7-point dogs in Game 4, a 2.5-point adjustment.

The Hawks are coming off two straight losses to the Bucks. They haven't lost three in a row since the end of April, so they have been a very resilient team. They are still 16-7 SU in their last 23 games overall.

The Hawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games. Atlanta is 51-23 ATS in its last 74 games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-109)

The Toronto Blue Jays have George Springer back healthy and one of the most potent lineups in baseball. They have gone 7-1 in their last eight games overall with six wins by two runs or more. They have scored 5 runs or more six times during this stretch.

Robbie Ray is now 5-3 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.140 WHIP in 14 starts this season. He has been at his best at home, going 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.055 WHIP in five home starts. Ray has posted a 3.18 ERA in four career starts against the Mariners as well.

Chris Flexen has been great at home for the Mariners this season, but it has been a different story on the road. Flexen has posted a 7.27 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in five starts on the highway this season.

The Mariners are 12-31 in their last 43 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Blue Jays are 9-2 in their last 11 games after having an off day. Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +100

The Miami Marlins had yesterday off and will be refreshed. The Philadelphia Phillies had to play a make up game in Cincinnati and lost 12-4. The Phillies are now just 2-6 in their last eight games overall and will be playing their 6th game in 5 days.

The Marlins have a big advantage on the mound tonight and should not be underdogs because of it. Trevor Rogers is 7-4 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in nine road starts. Rogers has face the Phillies twice in 2021, allowing just 2 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings for a 1.42 ERA.

He'll be opposed by Vincent Velasquez, who is 2-2 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.336 WHIP in 11 starts this season. He is 0-2 with a 7.97 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 18 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings. Velasquez has posted a 4.54 ERA in 18 career starts against Miami.  Roll with the Marlins Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Suns ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The longer a series goes on, the more familiar teams become with one another, and the harder it is for the offense to execute.

That has been the case in this series between the Suns and Clippers. They combined for 234 points in Game 1, then just 207 points in Game 2, 198 points in Game 3 and 164 points in Game 4.

While I don't expect Game 5 to be as low scoring as Game 4 with 164 points, we have plenty of margin for error here with this 214.5-point total. Both teams aren't likely to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 4, but I don't see either team lighting it up either in this elimination game.

The UNDER is 31-15 in Clippers last 46 games as road underdogs. The UNDER is 35-17-3 in Clippers last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Astros OVER 9.5

The Houston Astros are the best offensive team in baseball. They are hitting .277 and scoring 5.7 runs per game this season. They can cover this OVER on their own, which they did in this exact same matchup last week.

Tom Eshelman allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings in a 13-0 victory for the Astros on June 23rd. Zack Greinke also faced the Orioles in that series and while he had success, I think it only benefits to Baltimore having seen him twice in a week.

Eshelman is now 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA in two starts this season. Greinke has been at his worst at home, going 3-2 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in eight home starts.

The OVER is 12-4 in Greinke's 16 starts this season, including 7-1 in his eight home starts. The OVER is 13-6-2 in Orioles last 21 games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. The OVER is 9-4 in Astros last 13 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +140

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 25-20 in their last 45 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game. They have been very profitable to back because of it and I like the value with them today in Game 1 against the Cleveland Indians.

I'll gladly fade Cleveland's Eli Morgan, who is 0-2 with a 10.32 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in three starts this season while allowing 13 earned runs, 4 homers and 19 base runners in 11 1/3 innings.

I like what I've seen from Detroit's Matt Manning in his two starts this season against the Angels and Cardinals. Manning is 1-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.218 WHIP while allowing just 4 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. Roll with the Tigers Monday.

20* Bucks/Hawks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 224

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another and the harder it is for the offenses to score.

After combining for 229 points in Game 1, the Hawks and Bucks only combined for 216 points in Game 2.  And I think it will be even lower scoring in Game 3, so there's value with the UNDER 224 tonight.

The UNDER is 6-2-1 in Bucks last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Hawks last six games overall.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Hawks last 11 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game tonight.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -125

The Washington Nationals are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall. But they have lost two straight games to the Marlins the past two days and will be highly motivated for a victory because of it.

I like the Nationals' chances of finishing off this series with a win with ace Max Scherzer on the mound. Scherzer is 6-4 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.826 WHIP in 14 starts this season. He has allowed 2 runs or less in nine starts starts and 12 of his last 13 starts.

Scherzer is also 14-5 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 25 career starts against Miami. He pitched a complete game while allowing just one run and five base runners in a 3-1 victory over the Marlins on May 2nd.

He'll be opposed by Sandy Alcantara, who is 1-5 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.793 WHIP in six career starts against Washington. The Nationals are 9-2 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. Washington is 44-18 in the last 62 meetings. The Marlins are 0-6 in their last six games vs. a starting pitcher with a 1.15 WHIP or better. Roll with the Nationals Sunday.

20* AL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-127)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last seven games overall and really starting to swing the bats now that George Springer is back healthy.  They take on a Baltimore Orioles team that is 2-15 in their last 17 games overall with 12 losses by two runs or more.

Ross Stripling is in a groove right now. He is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA in his last five starts while allowing just 9 earned runs in 28 1/3 innings. And the competition has been stiff as he has faced the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, Indians and Marlins in those five starts.

Jorge Lopez is 2-9 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in 15 starts this season for the Orioles. Lopez has never beaten the Blue Jays, going 0-2 with a 13.49 ERA and 2.293 WHIP in three career starts against them. He has allowed 17 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in those three starts.

Baltimore is 3-20 vs. AL teams that score 4.9 or more runs per game this season. It is losing by over 3 runs per game in this spot. Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 218.5

After a shootout in Game 1, the Suns and Clippers have come back down to earth the past two games.  And the longer a series goes the more familiar teams become with one another.  That familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

Game 2 saw 207 combined points in a 104-103 victory by the Suns.  Game 3 saw 198 combined points in a 106-92 victory by the Clippers.  And Game 4 should stay well UNDER this 218.5-point total.

Having Chris Paul back makes the Suns a better defensive team, and a more efficient offensive team, but he was clearly rusty in Game 3 going 5-of-19 from the floor.  And Devin Booker is having to wear a mask which made him go 5-of-21 in Game 3.  The Suns have to play at a slower pace with Paul running the point and getting them in sets almost every trip down the floor.

The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Los Angeles.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The UNDER is 23-10-3 in Clippers last 36 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +139

The Texas Rangers are 28-48 this season and have no business being a -150 favorite against anyone.  The value is with the Kansas City Royals, who will be making this a bullpen game with Kyle Zimmer getting the start.

Kyle Gibson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to his 5-0 record and 2.17 ERA for the Rangers this season.  But Gibson's worst start this season came against the Royals on April 1st when he allowed 5 earned runs in 1/3 of an inning.  He has now allowed 8 earned runs in 2 innings in his last two starts against the Royals for a 36.00 ERA.

Texas is 14-35 (-15.9 units) against right-handed starters this season.  The Rangers are 0-6 in their last six games following a win.  Texas is 6-21 in its last 27 games overall.  Roll with the Royals Saturday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-143)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last six games overall and really starting to swing the bats now that George Springer is back healthy.  They take on a Baltimore Orioles team that is 2-14 in their last 16 games overall with 11 losses by two runs or more.

The Blue Jays have a big advantage on the mound today that will lead to them winning by two runs or more.  Hyun-Jin Ryu is 6-4 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  Ryu has never lost to the Orioles, going 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Keegan Akin still hasn't won this season as he is 0-3 with a 6.56 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in five starts.  That includes 0-3 with a 10.53 ERA and 2.121 WHIP in his last three, allowing 16 earned runs and 29 base runners in 13 2/3 innings.  Akin has posted a 4.91 ERA and 1.501 WHIP in two career starts against the Blue Jays as well.

Ryu is 51-17 as a start in his career against a team with a losing record.  His teams are winning by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  Baltimore is 3-19 vs. AL teams that score 4.9 or more runs per game this season, losing by 3.1 runs per game.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Tigers +212 (Game 1)

The Detroit Tigers have quietly gone 23-19 in their last 42 games overall despite being an underdog in almost every game.  And I think they are getting disrespected too much in Game 1 of this double-header against the Houston Astros today.

The Astros are overvalued at this point due to their 11-game winning streak.  I think having yesterday's game postponed due to weather can only kill their momentum.  And I think Framber Valdez is also getting too much respect for what he has done in limited action this season.

But the reason the Tigers are worth a bet today is because Casey Mize is grossly underrated.  He has posted a 3.61 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 14 starts this season and the Tigers are 8-6 (+7.2 units) in those starts.  Mize shut out the Astros in 7 innings of a 6-2 victory as a +230 underdog on April 12th earlier this season in his lone career start against them.  Take the Tigers in Game 1 Saturday.

20* Hawks/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -7.5

The Atlanta Hawks pulled their 3rd straight Game 1 victory on the road in these playoffs.  Now it's time for the Milwaukee Bucks to not take them lightly in Game 2 and to get the job done to even this series.

We saw the Hawks lose both Game 2's in their first two series as well after winning Game 1.  They lost by 9 to the Knicks and then by 16 to the 76ers.  And I think we see a double-digit victory by the Bucks here tonight.

A lot went right for the Hawks in Game 1 that likely won't go in their favor again.  They shot 49.5% as a team while the Bucks shot just 8-of-36 (22.2%) from 3-point range.  The Bucks also attempted only 14 free throws, so the calls weren't going their way.  They will get to the line much more in Game 2 as they are more aggressive in attacking the rim.

Plays against underdogs (Atlanta) - off two consecutive upset wins as road underdogs, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Friday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+105)

The Chicago White Sox are 33-6 vs. left-handed starters over the last two seasons.  They have been the best team in baseball against southpaws during this span.  And they come in highly motivated for a victory after losing five of their six road games during their six-game trip.

Now the White Sox are back home where they are 27-12 this season and winning by 1.5 runs per game.  They have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Carlos Rodon, who is a Cy Young candidate at 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in 12 starts this season with 105 K's in 73 2/3 innings.

Rodon has never lost to the Mariners, going 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in four career starts against them.  His teams have gone 4-0 in those games with all four wins by two runs or more.  He'll be opposed by Yusei Kikuchi, who is 0-1 with an 11.05 ERA and 2.592 WHIP in two career starts against the White Sox, allowing 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 7 2/3 innings. 

Seattle is 19-82 in its last 101 games as a road underdog of +200 or more, losing by 2.4 runs per game in this spot.  Against, Chicago is 33-6 vs. left-handed starters over the last two seasons and winning by 3.2 runs per game.  Take the White Sox on the Run Line Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +110

The Kansas City Royals just had to play the Red Sox and Yankees in back to back series and managed to go 3-3.  Now they take a big step down in class against the Texas Rangers, who are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall to fall to 27-48 on the season.  They should not be underdogs to the Rangers tonight.

Mike Minor has done his best work on the road this season, going 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in six starts away from home.  He'll be highly motivated to beat his former team in the Rangers tonight.

Dane Dunning is 2-6 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in 14 starts this season for the Rangers and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  Dunning is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 7 earned runs and 21 base runners in 8 innings.

The Rangers are 2-12 (-10.4 units) in Dunning's 14 starts this season.  The Royals are 7-2 in their last nine games during Game 1 of a series.  The Rangers are 16-42 in their last 58 during Game 1 of a series.  Texas is 18-38 in its last 56 games overall.  Roll with the Royals Friday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +132

The Washington Nationals have quietly gone 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  They have scored a combined 34 runs during their five-game winning streak.  And they should get after Pablo Lopez and the struggling Miami Marlins tonight.

The Marlins are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball and have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 10 of their last 12 games overall.  They are 2-8 in their last 10 contests.  Lopez is 2-2 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.613 WHIP in eight career starts against the Nationals.

Jon Lester is getting massively disrespected as an underdog tonight.  Lester has pitched 11 innings without allowing a single earned run in his last two starts against the Marlins.  Lester has posted a 3.96 ERA n 10 starts this season and a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts.

The Nationals are 9-0 in their last nine games vs. a right-handed starter.  Washington is 44-16 in the last 60 meetings.  Miami is 1-11 in its last 12 games when its opponent scored 5 runs or more in its previous game.  Take the Nationals Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-136)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last five games overall and really starting to swing the bats now that George Springer is back healthy.  They take on a Baltimore Orioles team that is 1-14 in their last 15 games overall with 11 losses by two runs or more.  That includes the 9-0 victory by the Blue Jays in Game 1 of this series yesterday.

Alek Manoah has held his own this season at 1-0 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.141 WHIP in five starts.  He'll be opposed by Matt Harvey, who is one of my favorite starters to fade.  Harvey is 3-9 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.781 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  He is 0-6 with a 13.17 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing 40 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings.

Baltimore is 3-22 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game this season, losing by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  The Orioles are 2-19 vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs per game this season, losing by 3.4 runs per game.  Baltimore is 0-14 in road games after four or more consecutive losses this season, losing by 3.4 runs per game.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Friday.

20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles ML +106

Amazingly, the Los Angeles Clippers have trailed 2-0 in each of their first two series in these playoffs.  They've come back to win both series, beating the Mavericks in 7 and winning four straight to beat the Jazz in 6.

So the Clippers are a resilient bunch that won't be phased by being down 2-0 to the Suns.  And they won those final two games against Utah without Kawhi Leonard outright as underdogs before taking the Suns to the wire in each of the first two games in this series in 6 and 1-point losses.

Now the Clippers are back home where their fans will be very excited to see them playing in the Western Conference Finals.  Plus, I expect the Suns to relax a little, especially coming off a game-winner like they just had in Game 2.  I don't expect them to continue shooting as well as they have either as they shot 55.1% in Game 1 and 50% in Game 2 yet still only won those games by a combined 7 points.

Los Angeles is 34-17 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 37-21 ATS in their last 58 games following a SU loss.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs.  Los Angeles is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Phoenix.  Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-135)

The Houston Astros are putting up the best offensive numbers in baseball this season.  They are hitting .279 as a team and scoring 5.8 runs per game.  They have won 10 straight games coming in while scoring 6 or more runs in eight of those victories.

Now they will feast on Detroit starter Jose Urena, who is 0-2 with a 7.40 ERA and 1.849 WHIP in six home starts this season.  He has been absolutely shelled in his last two starts, allowing 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 6 innings to the Angels and White Sox.

The Astros have a huge advantage on the mound tonight with Luis Garcia, who is 5-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 12 starts this season with 73 K's and only 48 hits allowed in 64 1/3 innings.  Garcia held the White Sox to one run in seven innings and the Blue Jays to one run in six innings in two recent starts, which are two of the better lineups in baseball.

Detroit is 11-40 in its last 51 home games vs. a starting pitcher that averages 5 K's or more per start.  It is losing by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  Urena is 2-20 vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 1.0 or more runs per game in his career.  His teams are losing by 3.4 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Bucks OVER 225.5

Game 1 is the game to take an OVER in an NBA playoff series.  Teams don't know what to expect from one another and it gives the edge to the offenses.  We've seen that with the Hawks as they have gone OVER the total in both their Game 1's in these playoffs.  They combined with the 76ers for 252 points in Game 1 last series.

The Bucks are coming off a down offensive series against the Nets, but they should get right here against the Hawks.  Atlanta just doesn't have an answer for Giannis, so he'll be able to get whatever he wants.

The Hawks and Bucks combined for 244, 229 and 215 points in their three regular season meetings.  I think this 225.5-point total has been set too low for Game 1 at least.  Both teams attempt a ton of 3-pointers and hit them at a high clip.  That should be the case here with plenty of defensive mistakes in Game 1.

The OVER is 17-8-1 in the last 26 meetings in Milwaukee.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -115

The Toronto Blue Jays just got George Springer back in the lineup and now have one of the most potent lineups in baseball.  They should be bigger favorites over the Marlins, who have scored 4 or fewer runs in eight of their past 10 games and struggle to score runs all season.

Robbie Ray is 4-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.165 WHIP in 13 starts this season for the Blue Jays.  Ray owns the Marlins with a 2.16 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  He held them to just one earned run in 6 innings of a 5-1 victory on June 1st earlier this month.

Trevor Rogers has posted good numbers this season and is getting a lot of respect because of it.  But the Blue Jays are scoring 5.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season and should get to him.  The Marlins are scoring just 3.8 runs per game against left-handed starters.

Toronto is 12-2 vs. NL opponents this season.  Miami is 5-19 after scoring 2 runs or less this season.  The Marlins are 0-6 in their last six vs. American League opponents.  Take the Blue Jays Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-123)

The Houston Astros are putting up the best offensive numbers in baseball this season.  They are hitting .276 as a team and scoring 5.6 runs per game, including .284 and 5.8 in road games.  They have won nine straight games coming in while scoring 6 or more runs in seven of those victories.

Now they take on a Baltimore Orioles team that is just 1-12 in their last 13 games with nine losses by two runs or more.  They should feast on Tom Eshelman, who will be making just his second start of the season for the lowly Orioles.

Jose Urquidy has been a solid starter for the Astros this season at 5-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  He will shut down this weak Baltimore lineup that is scoring just 3.7 runs per game vs. right-handed starters this season.

Houston is 13-1 after allowing 4 runs or less in four straight games over the past two seasons.  It is winning by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  Baltimore is 2-17 vs. AL teams that average 4.9 or more runs per game this season.  It is losing by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Roll with the Astros on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* Clippers/Suns ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 222.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have embraced their small ball lineup and it is paying dividends while also resulting in high-scoring games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Clippers last six games overall with combined scores of 222 or more points in all six games and an average of 233.7 combined points per game.

The Phoenix Suns are without Chris Paul, which hurts them defensively but it makes them play at a faster pace offensively.  So this series should be an OVER series until he returns.  And that was the case in Game 1 which saw 234 combined points despite only 26 combined free throws attempted.  There will surely be more foul calls in Game 2 tonight.

The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Phoenix.  The OVER is 4-0 in Clippers last four games as underdogs.  The OVER is 12-4-1 in Suns last 17 games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 25-12-1 in Suns last 38 games overall.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-125)

The Houston Astros are putting up the best offensive numbers in baseball this season.  They are hitting .277 as a team and scoring 5.7 runs per game, including .285 and 5.9 in road games.  They have won eight straight games coming in while scoring 6 or more runs in seven of those victories.

Now they take on a Baltimore Orioles team that is just 1-11 in their last 12 games with eight losses by two runs or more.  And they should feast on Jorge Lopez, who is 2-8 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.492 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  Lopez allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 2 1/3 innings of a 9-0 loss to the Astros in his only career start against them.

Zack Greinke has been solid this season at 7-2 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 15 starts.  Greinke has been at his best on the road, going 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.867 WHIP in seven starts away from home.

Baltimore is 0-11 after a five-game span where the bullpen had a 7.00 ERA or higher this season.  It is losing by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Houston is 12-1 after allowing 4 runs or less in four straight games over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Astros on the Run Line Tuesday.

25* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago White Sox -158

The Chicago White Sox are now 33-5 vs. left-handed starters over the last two seasons.  They are scoring 6.3 runs per game against left-handed starters in 2021.  And they will be highly motivated to get back in the win column today after losing four straight coming in.

Now they take on the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, who have gone just 2-11 in their last 13 games overall.  They should feast on left-hander Tyler Anderson, who is 3-7 with a 4.89 ERA in 13 starts this season.

Lucas Giolito is back to being his dominant self after a slow start to the season.  Giolito has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last nine starts and hasn't been shelled in any of them.  He fired a no-hitter against the Pirates in his last start against them last season in a 4-0 victory.  Bet the White Sox Tuesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Brewers/Diamondbacks OVER 9.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks have allowed 9 or more runs in five of their last six games.  They have allowed 5 or more runs in nine of their last 10 games as well.  The Brewers have allowed 5 or more runs in four straight games.

These are two terrible starting pitchers going today.  Brett Anderson is 2-4 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 11 starts for the Brewers, including 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in seven road starts.  Anderson is 0-1 with an 8.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks, allowing 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 20 base runners in 9 innings.

Merrill Kelly is 2-7 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.366 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in his last three starts.  Kelly is 0-1 with an 8.71 ERA in his last two starts against the Brewers, allowing 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 19 base runners in 10 1/3 innings.

Arizona is 7-0 OVER in home games after batting .200 or worse over a three-game span this season.  The OVER is 15-5-3 in Brewers last 23 road games with a total of 9 to 10.5 runs.  The OVER is 9-1 in Diamondbacks last 10 games with a total set of 9 to 10.5 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Hawks/76ers TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 217.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  We are now into Game 7 so the Hawks and 76ers are very familiar with one another.  And these Game 7's always seem to be lower scoring with the season on the line for both teams, so the pressure ramps up and the game slows down.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series from Games 4 through 6.  They combined for 203 points in Game 4, 215 points in Game 5 and 203 points in Game 6.  And now we have another total that is set way too high here at 217.5 for Game 7.

Atlanta is 16-1 UNDER in its last 17 games when attempting to close out a playoff series.  The Hawks are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 games when facing elimination in a playoff series.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Hawks last 11 playoff games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Hawks last nine games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (Atlanta) - in the 7th game of a playoff series are 52-22 (70.3%) since 1996.  Game 7 UNDERS have been money in the bank for years.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NL Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +136

The Cincinnati Reds will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to avoid the sweep after losing the first three games of this series in San Diego.  I like the value we are getting with the Reds today as I believe they have the advantage on the mound.

Luis Castillo has finally turned the corner and gotten back to how dominant he was last season after a slow start this season.  Castillo is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in his las three starts.  He is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last two starts against the Padres while holding them to just 2 earned runs in 12 innings.

Dinelson Lamet just hasn't been extended this season as he is averaging just 3.1 innings per start.  Lamet is 0-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in his seven starts, in which the Padres are just 2-5 (-6.3 units).  He has been grossly overvalued all season and is again today as a -160 favorite.

Cincinnati is 8-0 in its last eight road games when playing with triple revenge, coming back to win by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Roll with the Reds Sunday.

15* AL Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +148

The Detroit Tigers will be highly motivated for a victory today to avoid the sweep after losing the first three games of this series to the Los Angeles Angels.  The Tigers finally have the advantage on the mound today and should get a win because of it.

Casey Mize is one of the best young starters in baseball for the Tigers.  He is 4-4 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 2.96 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in eight road starts.

He'll be opposed by Dylan Bundy, who is 1-7 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.365 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  That includes 1-2 with an 8.56 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in his last three starts.  Bundy has never beaten the Tigers, going 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in two career starts against them.

Bundy is 0-7 (-9.1 units) against the money line following a team win this season.  The Angels are losing by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Tigers Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Mets -103

The New York Mets have a big advantage on the mound today and should be bigger favorites because of it.  Taijaun Walker is 6-2 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Walker is 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in two career starts against the Nationals.

Walker fired 7 shutout innings in a 4-0 victory over the Nationals in his lone start against them this season.  He'll be opposed by the inconsistent Pat Corbin, who is 4-5 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  Corbin is 4-7 with a 4.53 ERA in 17 career starts against the Mets as well.

Walker is 11-1 as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Corbin is 0-9 as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons.  Bet the Mets Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-119)

The Baltimore Orioles are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall with seven losses by two runs or more.  Chalk another one up today as the Blue Jays have a big advantage on the mound over the Orioles.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is 5-4 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  Ryu is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Orioles over the past two seasons, allowing just 3 earned runs in 12 innings.

He'll be opposed by Matt Harvey, who is one of the worst starters in baseball.  Harvey is 3-8 with a 7.76 ERA and 1.724 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  Worse yet, Harvey is 0-6 with a 14.09 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing 36 earned runs and 7 homers in 23 innings.  Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-127)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have lost 15 straight games and are 2-29 in their last 31 games overall.  They have lost 20 of those 29 games by two runs or more.  And they will get blown out by the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight as well.

The Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall with seven wins by two runs or more.  They have the advantage on the mound tonight in Walker Buehler, who has not gone 22 consecutive starts without suffering a defeat.  He has never lost to the Diamondbacks, going 2-0 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.922 WHIP in nine career starts against them.

Buehler is 6-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.936 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.844 WHIP in five road starts.  He'll be opposed by Matt Peacock, who is 1-4 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.590 WHIP in six starts, including 0-3 with a 7.14 ERA and 2.469 WHIP in his last three.

Arizona is 1-15 as a dog of +175 to +250 this season and losing by 2.8 runs per game on average.  The Diamondbacks are 2-26 vs. a starting pitcher that averages 5 or more K's per start this season.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Saturday.

20* Bucks/Nets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 215

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  We are now into Game 7 so the Bucks and Nets are very familiar with one another.  And these Game 7's always seem to be lower scoring with the season on the line for both teams, so the pressure ramps up and the game slows down.

We've seen 211 or fewer combined points in four of the six meetings in this series as the UNDER is 5-0-1 thus far.  They have averaged just 203.3 combined points per game in this series, so we are still getting a ton of value on the UNDER 215.

James Harden is banged up and playing through a hamstring injury.  Kyrie Irving remains out with an ankle injury.  The Nets just aren't the same offensive juggernaut that they were when their Big 3 were healthy.  And the Bucks have been struggling offensively all series and that won't change tonight.

Milwaukee is 14-3 UNDER when playing against a team that wins 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Bucks last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings.  The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Nets last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +166

The Cincinnati Reds were on an 11-2 run in their last 13 games heading into this series with San Diego.  But after losing the first two games of this series to the Padres, they come back highly motivated for a victory here in Game 3.

I love the value with the Reds considering I actually think they have the advantage on the mound.  Vladamir Gutierrez has been awesome this season at 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in four starts.

Dinelson Lamet just hasn't been extended this season as he is averaging just 3.1 innings per start.  Lamet is 0-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in his seven starts, in which the Padres are just 2-5 (-6.3 units).  He has been grossly overvalued all season and is again tonight as a -180 favorite.

The Reds are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a starting pitcher with a 1.30 WHIP or higher.  Cincinnati is 8-2 in its last 10 road games.  The Padres are 1-5 in their last six games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Reds Saturday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox +112

No team has been better against left-handed pitching over the last two years.  The Chicago White Sox are 33-4 against left-handed starters over the last two seasons.  They are 18-4 against left-handers this season alone and winning by 3.7 runs per game on average.

The White Sox will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after dropping the first two games of this series to the Astros.  I like their chances of bouncing back against Houston left-hander Framber Valdez, who is being overvalued due to putting up great numbers in just four starts this season.

I have no doubt Lance Lynn is the better starter in this game and shouldn't be an underdog to Valdez.  Lynn is a Cy Young contender due to going 7-2 with a 1.63 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.15 ERA in three road starts.  Take the White Sox Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -104

The Tampa Bay Rays have lost three straight games coming into this contest with the Seattle Mariners tonight.  It's safe to say the Rays will be highly motivated for a victory.  And I like their chances considering they haven't lost four games in a row since April 3-7 in the first week of the season.

Michael Wache has been solid this season for the Rays at 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in seven starts.  He'll be opposed by Yusei Kikuchi, who is 1-2 with a 4.41 ERA in five home starts for the Mariners this season.

The Rays are 11-2 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Tampa Bay is 24-8 in its last 32 games overall.  Seattle is 18-44 in its last 62 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Rays Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-124)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have lost 14 straight games and are 2-28 in their last 30 games overall.  They have lost 19 of those 28 games by two runs or more.  And they will get blown out by the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight as well.

The Dodgers are 7-2 in their last nine games overall with six wins by two runs or more.  They have the advantage on the mound tonight with Trevor Bauer, who is 6-5 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in 14 starts this season.  Bauer is 1-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.831 WHIP in three career starts against Arizona as well.

Caleb Smith is 0-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in four starts for the Diamondbacks this season while averaging just 4.3 innings per start.  Smith is 1-1 with a 5.63 ERA in two career starts against the Dodgers as well.

Arizona is 2-25 vs. starting pitchers that average 5 or more K's per start this season and losing by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday.

20* 76ers/Hawks ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 221.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  As a series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another.  And that's the case here for the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers in this Game 6 elimination game.

After combining for 203 points in Game 4, the Hawks and 76ers combined for 215 points in Game 3.  And both teams shot very well in that game with the 76ers are 45.9% and the Hawks at 46.7%.  They also attempted 66 combined free throws, yet that game still saw just 215 combined points.  So I like the chances of Game 6 staying well UNDER 221.5 points.

Atlanta is 15-1 UNDER in its last 16 games when attempting to close out a playoff series.  The Hawks are 24-7 UNDER in their last 31 playoff games when leading in the series.  The UNDER is 15-7 in 76ers last 22 road games.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Hawks last 13 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers +183

The Detroit Tigers are a solid 20-15 in their last 35 games overall so they have been playing well for over a month.  Most of these wins have been as underdogs, including their three-game sweep of the Royals last series.

Now we get the Tigers as nearly 2-to-1 underdogs to the Angels tonight.  This is an Angels team without two of their best hitters in Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon as well, so there's no way they should be this big of favorites.

Los Angeles is a woeful 4-9 (-15.7 units) as a favorite of -200 or more over the last three seasons.  Roll with the Tigers Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nets/Bucks UNDER 220.5

This has been a very low scoring series with the UNDER going 4-0-1 in the first five games.  They combined for 222 points in Game 1, 211 points in Game 2, 169 points in Game 3, 203 points in Game 4 and 222 points in Game 5.  That's an average of just 205.4 combined points per game, so we are getting a ton of value with this UNDER 222 tonight.

Game 5 only saw 102 combined points at halftime but 122 after intermission.  Both teams shot lights out as the Bucks and Nets both shot exactly 49.4% from the floor.  That is unlikely to happen again, especially for the Nets with Harden basically a non-factor and Irving still out.

Familiarity favors defense and lower scoring games.  As a series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another.  And this is an elimination game with everything on the line.  It will be played at a slower pace which was the case in Game 5 with the slowest pace of the series.  That's especially the case without Irving and with a slowed Harden for the Nets.

Milwaukee is 12-2 UNDER in its last 14 home games following an upset loss as a road favorite.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Nets last seven games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bucks last six games following a loss.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals +168

The St. Louis Cardinals have won three straight and now send one of the most underrated starters in baseball to the mound in John Gant.  He is 4-4 with a 3.36 ERA in 12 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 2.27 ERA in seven road starts.

The Atlanta Braves are just 1-6 in their last seven games overall and shouldn't be this big of favorites.  Charlie Morton has had a down year with a 4.36 ERA in 13 starts and a 4.65 ERA in eight home starts.  Morton is 2-13 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.686 WHIP in 19 career starts against the Cardinals as well with his teams going 3-16 in those starts.

St. Louis is 15-4 in its last 19 road games following a one-run win.  St. Louis is 11-4 in its last 15 meetings in Atlanta.  Take the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Hawks/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia -6.5

The Philadelphia 76ers played their worst game of the series in Game 4 and still nearly won in Atlanta.  Joel Embiid had been dominant for three straight games before going 4-for-20 in Game 4, including 0-for-12 in the 2nd half.  He'll be much better at home in Game 5 and lead the 76ers to a win and cover.

Philadelphia had won Games 2 and 3 by 16 points each before their 3-point loss in Game 4.  The Hawks just don't have an answer for Embiid, and he opens everything up for everyone else to hit open shots.  This is just a tough team to tame offensively, and defensively they have been solid in holding the Hawks to 103, 111 and 102 points in the last three games despite playing at a fast tempo.

Atlanta is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 road games as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season.  The 76ers are 11-2 ATS in home games off a loss this season.  Philadelphia is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The 76ers are 33-8 SU at home this season.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -132

The Chicago White Sox are 32-4 vs. left-handed starters over the last two seasons.  Now they get to face Tampa Bay lefty Ryan Yarbrough, who is 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA in nine starts this season with 11 homers allowed in 54 innings.

The White Sox have the advantage on the mound tonight with Lucas Giolito, who is pitching like the ace of this staff over the last couple months.  He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts, including one run or fewer in five of them.

Giolito is 1-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.822 WHIP in three career starts against the Rays with the White Sox going 3-0 in those games.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings with 25 K's in those three starts.  Take the White Sox Wednesday.

20* Bucks/Nets TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -4

The Milwaukee Bucks have a golden opportunity here to take control of this series with all the injuries to the Brooklyn Nets.  They came back from a 2-0 deficit and won Games 3 and 4 at home, and now I expect them to get the win and cover on the road here against the depleted Nets.

Brooklyn just isn't going to be the same dominant team it was during the regular season and early on in these playoffs when they had the Big 3 of Durant, Harden and Irving healthy.  Now they will be without both Harden and Irving for Game 5 Tuesday night after Irving suffered an ankle injury in Game 4.  Durant is one of the best players in the world, but the Nets just don't have much they can count on outside of him.

I'll back the team basketball of the Bucks, who have been able to get to the rim at will these past two games and should continue to do so tonight with tons of easy buckets.  The Nets' only chance here is to shoot great from 3-point range with a bunch of role players, but the looks won't be nearly as good without Harden and Irving facilitating, so I don't like their chances.

The crazy part is that Milwaukee has yet to shoot the ball to its potential, but it is coming in this series at some point.  They are just 36-of-135 (26.7%) from 3-point range in this series.  Milwaukee is 30-14-1 ATS in the last 45 meetings.  The Bucks are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings in Brooklyn.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -117

The St. Louis Cardinals had lost nine out of 10 games to some great competition before this series with the Marlins.  They got right with a Game 1 victory and I look for them to follow it up with another win in Game 2 tonight as short home favorites.

The Marlins are just 5-12 in their last 17 games overall and struggling to score runs.  They have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 15 of their last 19 games overall.  They just can't be trusted with that kind of poor production at the plate despite having a decent starting staff.

Kwang-Hyun Kim has held his own for the Cardinals this season with a 4.05 ERA in nine starts.  Kim has been at his best at home with a 3.06 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in four home starts this season.

Miami is 4-16 after scoring two runs or less this season.  The Marlins are 1-9 in their last 10 road games.  St. Louis is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The Cardinals are 17-5 in their last 22 games as favorites.  Roll with the Cardinals Tuesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox -109

The Chicago White Sox are 31-4 vs. left-handed starters over the last two seasons.  Now they get to face Tampa Bay lefty Shane McClanahan, who is 2-1 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA in his last two starts.

Dallas Keuchel has been solid this season for the White Sox at 5-1 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.284 WHIP in 13 starts.  He is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last two starts as well while allowing just 3 earned runs in 12 innings.

The White Sox are 13-5 in their last 18 games overall and have only lost two in a row once during this stretch.  They'll be motivated coming off a loss to the Rays in Game 1 of this series yesterday.  Take the White Sox Tuesday.

20* Jazz/Clippers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers let the Utah Jazz off the hook in the first two games in this series. They put it all together in Game 3 and won 132-106. Now I look for them to even this series with a win and cover at home tonight.

The Jazz made a franchise record 20 3-pointers in Game 2. They came back and made 19 3-pointers in Game 3 and still lost by 26 points. That's a bad sign for them moving forward in this series. The Jazz miss Mike Conley a lot and will be without him again Monday night.

Utah is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after trailing its previous game by 15 points or more at halftime. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as underdogs. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite. Bet the Clippers Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds +131

The Cincinnati Reds are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall and have scored 5 or more runs in seven of their last nine games overall, including 6 or more in six of those.  They should not be this big of underdogs to the Milwaukee Brewers tonight.

That's especially the case with how great starter Vladimir Gutierrez has been.  He is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in three starts this season.  One of those starts came against the Brewers last time out as he held them to two runs in 7 innings of a 7-3 victory on June 9th.

Eric Lauer is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.474 WHIP in four starts this season for the Brewers.  He just allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 2 innings to the lowly Detroit Tigers on June 1st in his last start.  Lauer allowed 6 earned runs in 3 innings of a 3-8 loss to the Reds in his last start against them.  Take the Reds Monday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox +101

The Chicago White Sox have won four straight games and are 6-1 in their last seven games overall.  They should not be home underdogs to the Tampa Bay Rays in Monday in what is a battle for first place in the American League.

The White Sox have the advantage on the mound tonight behind Lance Lynn, who is an AL Cy Young contender.  Lynn is 7-1 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.898 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He is 1-1 with a 2.36 ERA in five career starts against the Rays as well.  He has allowed just one earned run in 15 innings in his last two starts against Tampa Bay.

Chicago is 14-2 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher with a 3.70 ERA or better over the last two seasons.  The White Sox are 6-0 in their last six during Game 1 of a series.  Chicago is 41-15 in its last 56 home games.  Roll with the White Sox Monday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels -127

The Los Angeles Angels have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall. They have now scored 5 runs or more in seven straight games. They take on an Arizona Diamondbacks team that has lost nine straight and is now just 5-32 in their last 37 games overall.

The Angels have the advantage not only at the plate but also on the mound today and should be bigger favorites as a result. Patrick Sandoval has posted a 3.15 ERA in four starts this season for the Angels.

He'll be opposed by John Duplantier, who is 0-2 with a 10.03 ERA and 1.799 WHIP in three starts this season for the Diamondbacks. He has already allowed 13 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 2/3 innings. Take the Angels Sunday.

20* Nets/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks won Game 3 86-83 despite shooting just 37.8% from the field and 6-of-31 (19.4%) from 3-point range. That was an incredible effort to gut out that win, and it gives them a ton of confidence heading into Game 4.

In fact, the Bucks have shot poorly all series, which is an aberration based on the fact that they were one of the best shooting teams in the NBA during the regular season. They went 8-of-27 (29.6%) from 3 in Game 2 and 6-of-30 (20%) from 3 in Game 1.

It's safe to say the Bucks are due to shoot to their potential in Game 4. And from a line value perspective, this is a 6-point adjustment from Game 3. They go from being 3.5-point favorites in Game 3 to 2.5-point underdogs in Game 4. There is a ton of value with the Bucks as home underdogs today.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Brooklyn) - off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1996.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Brooklyn) - after beating the spread by 54 points or more total in their last 10 games against an opponent that went under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Bucks Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Rays OVER 8

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Orioles and Rays with combined scores 9 runs or more four times. That includes 19, 16 and 11-run efforts in three of them.

Michael Wacha is only averaging 4.4 innings per start this season for the Rays, so the Orioles should get to their bullpen early. Bruce Zimmerman is 3-3 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.572 WHIP in 10 starts for the Orioles, including 1-1 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.585 WHIp in five road starts.

Zimmerman allowed 5 runs in 3 innings for a 15.00 ERA in his lone career start against the Rays, which resulted in a 6-10 loss and 16 combined runs. Wacha is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in two career starts against Baltimore which both saw 13 combined runs. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers -4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Jazz.  They blew a double-digit lead in Game 1 and lost by 3 points, then lost by 6 points in Game 2 as both games went to the wire.

It's amazing Game 2 went to the wire when you consider how well Utah shot the ball.  They shot 55.3% from the field and 20-of-39 (51.3%) from 3-point range and broke some franchise records in that category.

The Jazz won't shoot that well again as the Clippers are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA.  They will give a big effort in Game 3 at home this time around with their fans behind them.  And it should be enough to cover this 4.5-point spread.

The Jazz are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Utah is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as an underdog. The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites. Bet the Clippers Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +164

Analysis will be posted shortly.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Astros/Twins OVER 9

The Houston Astros are hitting the cover off the ball right now. They have scored 6 runs or more in 5 straight games. They are averaging 7.1 runs per game during this stretch.

The Twins have been a great OVER bet all season due to having a great lineup but a terrible staff. They have scored 4 runs or more in seven of their last eight games. They are 40-20-3 OVER in their 63 games this season. The Astros are 37-24-2 OVER in their 63 games.

The OVER is 20-6-1 in Twins last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 20-4-3 in Twins last 27 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. 

Finally, the wind will be blowing out to right field at 10 MPH tonight with temperatures in the 80's to help aid this OVER bet. Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Suns/Nuggets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 223.5

I cashed in the UNDER 223 in Game 2 by the narrowest of margins. But that was a dead nuts UNDER until the backups got in in the 4th quarter.

It was 52-42 Phoenix at halftime for 94 combined points. Then they went off for 127 points in the 2nd half, including 68 in the 4th quarter when the backups were in and there was no defense being played.

Game 3 is expected to be close with the Nuggets currently 1.5-point favorites. The defensive intensity should be high for four quarters, thus giving us an easy winner on the UNDER. 

The Suns are an elite defensive team and the Nuggets are struggling to find offense outside Nikola Jokic. And after two huge offensive performances by the Suns, I have to think the Nuggets will improve defensively in Game 3 with their season on the line at home.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) after four or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 51-19 (72.9%) over the last five seasons.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) - a well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 37-12 (75.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -116

The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated for a victory today after blowing late leads to the Phillies each of the last two days in walk off fashion. Now they take on the lowly Miami Marlins in Game 1 of this series Friday.

The Braves have the advantage on the mound behind Charlie Morton, who is better than his season long stats suggest. Morton is 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.072 WHIP in four road starts this season. He is 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA in his last four starts while allowing just 6 earned runs in 23 innings.

Sandy Alcantara is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers today due to his 3.30 ERA in 13 starts this season. But Alcantara is 5.84 ERA in his last two starts against the Braves, allowing 8 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings.

The Braves are 38-15 in the last 53 meetings. Atlanta is 59-28 in its last 87 meetings in Miami. Take the Braves Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -155

The Chicago White Sox improved to 30-4 vs. left-handed starters over the last two seasons with their 5-2 victory over the Blue Jays Thursday. They are winning by 3.8 runs per game against left-handed starters over the last two seasons.

Now the White Sox take on left-handed Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers. Skubal is 3-6 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 10 starts for the Tigers this season. He is 1-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 2.143 WHIP in two career starts against the White Sox as well.

Lucas Giolito has returned to ace form in recent weeks. He has allowed one run or fewer in five of his last seven starts. Giolito should be more than a -155 favorite against Skubal and the Tigers today. Roll with the White Sox Friday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago White Sox +104

The Chicago White Sox are 29-4 vs. left-handed starters over the last two seasons and winning by 3.8 runs per game in this spot.  They are scoring 6.8 runs per game in these 33 games against left-handers as well.

Now the White Sox take on lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has struggled of late for the Blue Jays.  He just gave up 7 runs, 6 earned, and 2 homers in 5 2/3 innings of a 13-1 loss to the Astros in his last start.  The White Sox will get to him as well.

Dallas Keuchel has been solid this season for the White Sox at 4-1 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.279 WHIP in 12 starts.  He is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in his last three starts as well.  Kuechel has never lost to the Blue Jays, going 4-0 in his six career starts against them.  Take the White Sox Thursday.

20* Nets/Bucks ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee -3

The season and pride is on the line for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  It's safe to say they will give their best effort of the season, and it should be good enough to get a win and cover and get back in this series against the Brooklyn Nets.

After losing by 8 points in Game 1, the Bucks were absolutely embarrassed with a 39-point loss in Game 2.  That's why their pride is on the line here, and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  I also expect the Nets to take their foot off the gas after how easy Game 2 came for them.

The Nets aren't going to continue shooting this well all series.  They made 15-of-40 from 3-point range in Game 1 and an even better 21-of-42 in Game 2.  Conversely, the Bucks made 6-of-30 in Game 1 and 8-of-27 in Game 2.  

The Bucks are a much better shooting team than they've shown and should be better where they are comfortable at home, especially their role players.  They shoot 39.6% from 3 on the season while the Nets are at 38.3%, so it has been an aberration.  Plus, being without James Harden will catch up with the Nets sooner rather than later.

Milwaukee is 12-3 ATS after losing two of their last three games this season, coming back to win by 14.7 points per game.  The Nets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as playoff underdogs.  Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Bucks are 29-13-1 ATS in the last 43 meetings.  Bet the Bucks Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Braves +131

The Atlanta Braves come back highly motivated for a victory today after blowing a one-run lead in the 9th inning last night to the Phillies, losing on a two-run homer with two outs.  I think there's tremendous value with the Braves here as underdogs when they are simply the better team.

Ian Anderson has been solid this season for the Braves at 4-3 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in 11 starts.  Anderson has a 4.41 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in three career starts against the Phillies as well with the Braves winning his last two starts against them.

Zack Wheeler is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today.  Wheeler gave up 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Braves on April 9th, which resulted in an 8-1 victory for Atlanta.

Atlanta is 24-8 in its last 32 games after scoring two runs or less last game.  Wheeler is 1-10 (-10.1 units) in June home games in his career.  The Braves are 49-24 in their last 73 during Game 3 of a series.  Roll with the Braves Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +135

The Kansas City Royals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost four straight including the first two games of this series to the Angels.  They desperately want to avoid the sweep with a victory in Game 3 tonight, and I like the value we are getting on them.

Brad Keller has been at his best on the road this season, going 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA in six starts away from home.  Keller is 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three starts as well.  He is 2-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in four career starts against the Angels.

Griffin Canning is 3-4 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in nine starts this season for the Angels.  He has been at his worst at home, going 2-2 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in four home starts.  Canning is 1-2 with an 8.74 ERA and 1.853 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Kansas City is 6-0 (+8.8 units) revenging a blowout road loss by 6 runs or more over the last two seasons.  Keller is 14-7 (+12.2 units) in all starts over the last two seasons.  The Angels are 1-7 (-8.5 units) after a win by 6 runs or more this season.  Roll with the Royals Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Suns UNDER 223

The Phoenix Suns are a great UNDER team because they are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and they play at a slow tempo.  I'll come back with the UNDER in Game 2 after Game 1 saw 227 combined points and went over the 222.5-point total.

The Suns had a great shooting game in Game 1 scoring 122 points and making 54.1% from the field.  I don't see that happening again here.  The Nuggets only scored 105 points but still shot a decent 46.7% from the field.  I don't foresee either team topping 110 points in Game 2 tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Denver) a well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 36-12 (75%) over the last five seasons.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Phoenix) - after four or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 50-19 (72.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The Minnesota Twins have been huge money burners this season at 24-36 (-21.7 units) on the season.  They have a terrible pitching staff and aren't hitting the ball as well as they have the past few seasons.  I'll gladly fade them tonight considering the Yankees have big advantage on the mound.

Gerrit Cole has been on top of baseball when it comes to the best starting pitchers the last handful of years.  He is 6-3 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.872 WHIP in 12 starts this season with 104 K's in 75 2/3 innings.  Cole fired 7 shutout innings in his lone career starts against the Twins in an 11-0 victory.

Randy Dobnak is 1-2 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.415 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 20 base runners in 11 2/3 innings in losing each of his last two starts to the Royals and Orioles.  Dobnak gave up 4 earned runs in 2 innings in his lone career start against the Yankees in a 2-8 defeat.

Cole is 32-10 as a favorite of -125 to -175 with his teams winning by 2.2 runs per game in this spot.  The Twins are 4-13 in their last 17 games as home underdogs.  The Yankees are 21-7 in their last 28 vs. AL Central opponents.  New York is 64-21 in the last 85 meetings, including 37-16 in the last 53 meetings in Minnesota.  Take the Yankees on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +142

The Kansas City Royals had won five straight games and scored 5 runs or more in seven straight games prior to their current three-game losing streak.  They'll be motivated to get back in the win column today and I like their chances here at a great value against the Los Angeles Angels.

The Royals have the advantage on the mound tonight behind Kris Bubic, who is 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA in four starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Andrew Heaney, who is 3-3 with a 4.77 ERA in 10 starts, including 1-1 with a 6.08 ERA in five home starts.

The Angels are 2-10 after a win by 4 runs or more this season.  Los Angeles is 1-9 vs. an AL starting pitcher with a 3.70 ERA or better this season.  Take the Royals Tuesday.

15* Hawks/76ers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -6

The Atlanta Hawks jumped on the 76ers early and held on late for the upset win in Game 1.  I fully expect the 76ers to have their revenge, and it's a great sign moving forward for them that Embiid looks healthy after his big performance in Game 1.

The Hawks shot 51.2% from the field and 20-of-47 (42.6%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  They won't have that big of an offensive performance again, and they really don't have an answer fro Philadelphia defensively with so many weak defenders in their lineup.

Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS in home games following a loss this season.  It is coming back to win by 10.6 points per game on average in this spot.  The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Philadelphia is 32-8 SU at home this season and 10-1 SU in its last 11 home games.  Roll with the 76ers Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -132

The Cincinnati Reds have won four straight and six of their last seven games to pull within one game of .500 on the season.  They will be motivated to get to .500 especially with the rival Milwaukee Brewers coming to town tonight.

The Reds have the clear advantage on the mound tonight and should be bigger favorites because of it.  Sonny Gray has posted a 3.64 ERA with 60 K's in 47 innings in nine starts this season.  Gray owns the Brewers, going 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA in 10 career starts against them.

Adrian Houser is 3-5 with a 4.07 ERA in 10 starts for the Brewers while averaging just 4.9 innings per start.  Houser has never beaten the Reds, going 0-3 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.641 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Gray is 19-5 (+13 units) with a total of 8.5 to 10 over the last three seasons.  Cincinnati is 9-2 following an off day this season.  Bet the Reds Tuesday.