15* CAA PLAY OF THE DAY on William & Mary -1

UNC-Wilmington is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Seahawks have a 17-2 record but it has come against the 358th-ranked schedule.  Only seven teams in the entire country have faced an easier slate than them.  They have also gone 5-1 in games decided by 4 points or less.

William & Mary is 12-6 against the 209th-ranked schedule.  The Tribe have only lost one game by more than 11 points all season, and that was at St. John's.  They have handled their business at home going a perfect 7-0 on their home floor while outscoring opponents by 23.0 points per game.  I'll gladly back the Tribe in this short favorite role as they are the better team and they are at home.  Bet William & Mary Thursday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati +14

Arizona is 18-0 and one of only three undefeated teams left in the country.  With their unbeaten record comes expectations from the public and oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  Asking the Wildcats to win this game by 15-plus points over Cincinnati to beat us is asking too much.

The Wildcats did not live up to expectations in their last two games.  They only beat Arizona State by 7 as 21.5-point home favorites and UCF by 7 as 9.5-point road favorites.  Cincinnati is better than both of those teams.

The Bearcats have had some poor luck in close games this season with their last four losses all coming by 7 points or fewer.  They rebounded nicely with a 77-68 home win over Colorado and a 79-70 upset home win over Iowa State in their last two games coming in.  Now they are ready to give Arizona a run for its money tonight.  Bet Cincinnati Wednesday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Memphis/Tulsa OVER 153.5

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 12-4 OVER in all games this season and not once going to OT.  The Golden Hurricane rank 30th in adjusted offense and 164th in adjusted defense.  They are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall and have gone for at least 160 combined points in eight of their last 11 games.  This total of 153.5 is very low for a game involving Tulsa right now.

Memphis is coming off a 95-69 win over UTSA for 164 combined points.  The Tigers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall also combining for 167 points with Florida Atlantic, a team that profiles similarly to Tulsa.  Both teams rank in the Top 143 in tempo so there will be plenty of possessions to get this OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso ML -120

I love the spot for Valparaiso tonight.  The Beacons will be out for revenge from a 75-70 loss at Southern Illinois on January 1st.  They shot just 4-of-21 (19%) from 3-point range and still only lost by 5.  They are due some positive shooting regression at home in the rematch.

Southern Illinois is just 2-7 SU in road games this season while Valparaiso is 8-3 SU at home.  That includes 3-0 SU in their last three MVC home games with wins over Northern Iowa by 10, Illinois State by 6 and Illinois-Chicago by 7.  The Salukis are 2-7 SU in true road games with the two wins coming by a combined 3 points.  Bet Valparaiso on the money line Wednesday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets +3.5

The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now.  They have gone 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  A big reason for this recent resurgence is due to being one of the healthiest teams in the NBA during this stretch.

Charlotte has a deadly quartet of La'Melo Ball (19.9 PPG, 7.6 APG), Brandon Miller (19.8 PPG), Miles Bridges (19.1 PPG) and Kon Knuepppel (19.0 PPG) who have all been healthy for the majority of this stretch.  They are a potent offensive team with these four healthy and geling.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are without two key players in Darius Garland (18.0 PPG, 6.9 APG) and Sam Merrill (13.8 PPG, 45.5% 3-pointers).  Their offense gets stagnant without these guys, and that was on display in their 136-104 home loss to the Thunder last time out.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Maryland +19

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Maryland and 'sell high' on Illinois tonight.  The Terrapins are 8-10 this season and taking some time under Buzz Williams to improve.  But I've seen enough from them in recent games to know they can stay within this inflated number at Illinois.

The Terrapins are coming off a 96-73 home win over Penn State as 1.5-point favorites.  They also were competitive in a 12-point loss at UCLA as 13.5-point dogs recently.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 8 days so they are fresh and ready to give the Fighting Illini a run for their money tonight.

The Fighting Illini have gone 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.  But they are coming off a lackluster 77-67 home win as 15.5-point favorites against Minnesota.  They have a huge game on deck against Purdue on Saturday that they could easily be looking ahead to.

The Fighting Illini are a tired team playing their 4th game in 11 days.  They are also a beat up team as they will be without 2nd-leading scorer Kylan Boswell (14.3 PPG) tonight, plus 3rd-leading scorer Andrej Stojakovic (13.5 PPG) is questionable with an ankle injury.  Asking the Fighting Illini to win by 20-plus points to beat us in their current state is asking too much.  Bet Maryland Wednesday.

15* Lakers/Nuggets NBC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 228

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight in this game between the Lakers and Nuggets.  The Nuggets are 1st in offensive rating while the Lakers are 9th.  The Nuggets are 23rd in defensive rating while the Lakers are 25th.  Denver is 27-16 OVER in all games this season while Los Angeles is 24-17 OVER in all games.

Three of the last four meetings between the Lakers and Nuggets have seen 228 or more combined points.  The Lakers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 236 or more combined points in four of those five, and 248 or more in three of them.  The Nuggets are 3-1 OVER in their last four games with 227 or more combined points in three of the four.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Heat/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 238

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season by a wide margin.  They are fully healthy right now with the exception of Tyler Herro, and they have actually been better offensively without him as they seem to play more together as a team with better ball movement.

The Heat are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall combining for 242 points with the Thunder, 248 with the Suns and 247 with the Warriors in three of their last four games.  They have played five straight elite defensive teams, and now they take a step down in class here against the Sacramento Kings.

The Kings rank 27th in defensive rating and they aren't getting any better defensively any time soon.  But they have gotten much better offensively with the return of LaVine and Sabonis among others.  The Kings have scored at least 110 points during their 4-1 stretch in their last five games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Vanderbilt/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas ML -120

Arkansas is 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They beat Louisville 89-80 as 1.5-point home dogs and Tennessee 86-75 as 1.5-point home dogs to highlight their best home wins.  They can certainly handle Vanderbilt tonight.

The Commodores have been exposed after jumping out to a 16-0 start this season against a soft schedule.  They have lost their last two games, getting blown out 80-64 as 4.5-point favorites at Texas and falling 98-94 at home to Florida.  They will now be playing in their 3rd different city in 7 days and I question how much they have left in the tank tonight.  Bet Arkansas on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +18.5

Iowa ranks 344th in adjusted tempo and 343rd in average length of offensive possession.  Playing at a snail's pace allows them to be competitive with good teams, but also to allow bad teams to be competitive with them.  It's a profile that has a team like Iowa always playing to their level of competition.

Rutgers plays a similar style ranking 292nd in adjusted tempo and 209th in average length of offensive possession. The Scarlet Knights are in no hurry, either, so this game won't see very many possessions at all.  That's going to make it tough for Iowa to get margin and win this game by 19 points or more, which is what it will take to beat us.

The Scarlet Knights are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five games and playing their best basketball of the season.  They upset both Northwestern and Oregon, only lost by 7 at home to Ohio State as 9.5-point dogs and by 9 at Wisconsin as 15.5-point dogs.

The Hawkeyes are in a tough spot here playing in their 3rd different city in 7 days.  After coming up short at Purdue 79-72, they came back and upset Indiana 74-57 on the road.  That's a struggling Hoosiers team that the Hawkeyes are getting too much respect for beating handily.  It sets them up for a letdown spot here at home.  Bet Rutgers Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis/Duquesne OVER 165

St. Louis is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Billikens rank 31st in adjusted tempo and 7th in average length of offensive possession.  They are 40th in adjusted offense including 3rd in effective FG percentage.  They are scoring 91.7 points per game this season and haven't played a single OT game.

Duquesne is also a dead nuts OVER team.  The Dukes rank 41st in adjusted tempo, 127th in adjusted offense and 162nd in adjusted defense.  They are 12-4 OVER in all games this season and 7-2 OVER at home.  They are scoring 84.4 points per game and allowing 77.7 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami/Kent State OVER 167

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Redhawks are averaging 93.9 points per game this season.  They rank 36th in adjusted tempo and 75th in adjusted offense.  They are 12-4 OVER in all games this season and they have combined for 159 or more points with their opponents in eight of their last nine games overall.

Kent State plays even faster, ranking 21st in adjusted tempo, 104th in adjusted offense and just 245th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Flashes really profile as an OVER team.  They have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for at least 168 points in all four games.  

Kent State is 12-4 OVER in all games this season and 7-2 OVER in home games.  The Golden Flashes are scoring 90.2 points per game and I could see both teams getting into the 90's tonight.  This total of 167 is actually pretty short for a game involving these two teams given their profiles.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Florida State/Miami OVER 165.5

Miami really profiles as an OVER team ranking 87th in adjusted tempo, 50th in average length of offensive possession and 48th in adjusted offense.  Miami is 10-1 OVER in all home games this season scoring 95.2 points per game at home.

The Hurricanes will likely hang 100 on the Florida State Seminoles tonight.  The Seminoles rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 10th in average length of offensive possession, so they really want to get up and down.  They rank 96th in adjusted offense and 164th in adjusted defense, which is really poor for a Power 4 team.  They recently allowed 91 points to Duke, 113 to NC State and 94 to Syracuse in three of their last four games which all saw 178 or more combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall +11.5

Seton Hall is 14-4 SU & 11-7 ATS this season as one of the most improved teams in the Big East.  But this is a 'buy low' spot on the Pirates after a 77-66 upset home loss to Butler as 6.5-point favorites.  They shot 35.9% overall and 17.6% from 3-point range.

I think the Pirates let their 69-64 loss to UConn the game prior beat them twice.  They shot just 6.3% from 3-point range against UConn.  It's safe to say the Pirates are due some positive shooting regression after those two performances.

It's time to 'sell high' on St. John's.  The Red Storm are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off a big 86-79 road win at Villanova.  This looks like the letdown spot for the Red Storm.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this rivalry.  In fact, the Pirates have actually gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to St. John's.  They will take this game to the wire tonight and get the cover.  Bet Seton Hall Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Akron/Buffalo OVER 168.5

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 33rd in adjusted tempo, 23rd in average length of offensive possession, 16th in adjusted offense and 2nd in effective FG percentage.  The Zips are averaging 93.6 points per game this season despite not playing a single OT game.  They rank just 217th in adjusted defense.

Buffalo is a great offensive team ranking 94th in adjusted offense but even worse than Akron defensively ranking 303rd in adjusted defense.  The Bulls rank 29th in effective FG percentage on offense and 269th on defense.  They scoring 81.2 points per game.

Buffalo is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall going for 168 or more combined points three times.  Akron is 10-6 OVER in all games this season and coming off 193 combined points in a 104-89 win over Western Michigan.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 239

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season by a wide margin.  They are fully healthy right now with the exception of Tyler Herro, and they have actually been better offensively without him as they seem to play more together as a team with better ball movement.

The Heat are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 242 points with the Thunder and 248 with the Suns in two of their last three games.  They have played four straight elite defensive teams, and now they take a step down in class here against the Warriors.

The Warriors are an OVER team as long as Steph Curry is healthy, and that is playing out here in recent games.  The Warriors are coming off a 126-113 win over the Knicks for 239 combined points in a game that Jalen Brunson sat out.  They followed it up with a 136-116 win over the Hornets for 252 combined points.  They have scored at least 119 points in five of their last six games and they will hang a big number on the Heat tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Celtics/Pistons NBC No-Brainer on Detroit -3

The Detroit Pistons just had four days off in a row recently and will be playing just their 4th game in 12 days.  They are fully healthy, rested and primed for a big effort tonight against the Boston Celtics, one of their biggest contenders to win the East.

The Pistons are 16-4 at home this season, so this is a short number for them to be laying at home.  They have also matched up well with the Celtics this season going 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS winning by 6 at home and 7 on the road, and losing by 3 on the road.  This is the 4th and final meeting, and they know how important this game is to get home-court advantage in the East with the tiebreaker.

The Celtics will be playing their 4th consecutive road game and are in the much worse rest spot.  Joe Mazzula is the favorite to win Coach of the Year getting the most out of this team to this point.  But I think the Celtics are getting too much respect here.  This line indicates these are even teams, and that's just not the case.  The Pistons are superior and it will show tonight.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

20* Indiana/Miami National Championship No-Brainer on Indiana -7.5

Curt Cignetti is putting together the greatest 2-year turnaround in college football history.  He has proven last year's trip to the 12-team playoff was no fluke by going 15-0 this season and on the verge of winning the National Championship.  The Indiana Hoosiers aren't just winning, they are dominating opponents.

Indiana is outscoring opponents by 31.5 points per game during this 15-0 run.  They are outgaining opponents by 200.4 yards per game and 2.4 yards per play.  There is nothing fluky about this run, beating Oregon on the road 30-20 in the first meeting, upsetting Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship Game and becoming the only team to win off a bye (1-7) in the history of the 12-team playoff when they crushed Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl.  They backed it up with a 56-22 win over Oregon in the semifinals.

Indiana held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards on 26 carries in the big Ten Championship Game and Alabama to 23 rushing yards on 17 carries in the Rose Bowl.  They gave up 93 rushing yards on 26 carries to Oregon.  They have allowed 93 or fewer rushing yards in 13 of their last 14 games.  They are elite against the run, making this a nightmare matchup for Miami, which needs to be able to run the ball to set up the pass.  They won't be able to against Indiana.

The Hurricanes were able to escape with a 31-27 win over Ole Miss in the semifinals after narrow wins over Ohio State and Texas A&M to start the playoff.  Several things happened in that game that I think will be problems for them in this game.  Injuries to Miami piled up in that Ole Miss game, penalties are a problem for them, and they are terrible on special teams.

Miami DB Xavier Lucas will miss the first half of this game after a targeting call against Ole Miss.  Damari Brown may still be out.  CB OJ Frederique played just seven snaps against Ole Miss and is injured.  Two freshmen in CB Ja'Boree Antoine and Chris Ewald will get a lot of playing time.  No question Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza can exploit this weak secondary and will.  He also gets the ball out quickly to negate Miami's biggest strength, which is its pass rush.  The Hurricanes were tired and beaten up along the defensive line against Ole Miss, too.  They only had one sack against the Rebels, who had their defense really on their heels in the 2H.

Miami has the 5th-most penalty yards in FBS, while Indiana has the 6th-fewest.  Mario Cristobal has notoriously been bad in this department as his teams have ranked 85th or worse in penalties in five consecutive seasons.  Miami's lack of discipline will be a problem here.  The Hurricanes had 10 penalties for 74 yards against Ole Miss and could have had even more with a late hit OB not called.  Cignetti has the Hoosiers buttoned up and they will not beat themselves.  

The Hoosiers have been great on special teams, while the Hurricanes have been terrible and don't have a reliable kicker.  Carter Davis is 17-of-23 (73.9%) on the season and missed a key kick against Ole Miss.  And Indiana will hold them to FG's.  Prior to the Oregon game, the Hoosiers had allowed just 6 red zone TD's all season.  They allowed 3 against Oregon but mostly in garbage time.  So they have allowed just 9 red zone TD's all season, making them the best red zone defense in the country.

Miami is playing in its home stadium, but it will not feel like a home game.  Indiana fans will shell out the money to be in attendance for the biggest game in program history.  They will have at least half the stadium and I wouldn't be surprised if it feels like a home game for them with how rabid their fan base is.  They showed out for the Rose Bowl and the Peach Bowl, and they will show out for this game, too.  This has another Hoosiers blowout written all over it.  Bet Indiana Monday.

15* CBB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Providence/Marquette OVER 166

Providence is a dead nuts OVER team and the books have failed to catch up with it this season.  The Friars rank 13th in adjusted tempo, 21st in average length of offensive possession, 31st in adjusted offense and 153rd in adjusted defense.

Providence is 13-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Friars are scoring 88.9 points per game and allowing 85.3 points per game.  The OVER is 4-0 in their last four Big East games going for 181 combined points with Creighton, 190 with Villanova, 181 with Xavier and 201 with UConn. This total of 166 is too short for a game involving the Friars right now.

Marquette will gladly run with Providence.  The Golden Eagles rank 80th in adjusted tempo and 17th in average length of offensive possession.  Like the Friars, they are a terrible defensive team ranking 106th in adjusted defense.  In what has been a disappointing season, this is a chance for Marquette to let their hair down and hang a big number on the Friars at home tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Spurs OVER 240

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They play zero defense, and that was on display in their last two games against the Dallas Mavericks, who were missing 4 or 5 starters.

After losing 144-122 on Thursday for 266 combined points with the Mavericks, they weren't any better defensively in the rematch on Saturday losing 138-120 for 258 combined points.  This also came after a 128-126 loss in Chicago for 254 combined points.

The Spurs are coming off a 126-123 home win over the Minnesota Timberwolves for 249 combined points.  The Spurs and Jazz have combined for at least 241 points in each of their last three meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

The Sacramento Kings are playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall covering the spread by a combined 76 points.  They won all four games by double-digits.  They beat the Rockets by 13 as 14.5-point dogs, the Lakers by 12 as 9.5-point dogs, the Knicks by 11 as 10.5-point dogs and the Wizards by 13 as 7.5-point favorites.

This run has coincided with the Kings getting as healthy as they have been all season.  They now have their two best players back and healthy in LaVine and Sabonis.  They only player they are missing right now is Keegan Murray.  I fully expect them to continue playing well tonight to try and keep this winning streak going.

This is a terrible spot for the Portland Trail Blazers.  They are coming off a 132-116 home win over the Lakers last night, a Lakers team that was missing 3 starters in Reaves, Doncic and Ayton.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 13th game in 22 days.  They are one of the most tired teams in the NBA right now.  They are also extremely banged up with Avdija, Grant and Holiday all candidates to sit out tonight.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Nuggets OVER 227.5

With the quartet of Ball (20.2 PPG, 7.6 APG), Bridges (19.4 PPG), Miller (19.7 PPG) and Knueppel (19.2 PPG) all healthy right now, the Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 245 points with the Jazz, 226 with the Clippers, 252 with the Lakers and 252 with the Warriors.

The Nuggets have been a dead nuts OVER team all season going 27-15 OVER in all games.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating.  They have continued being an OVER team even without Nikola Jokic.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall going for 238 combined points with the Pelicans, 227 with the Mavs and 236 with the Wizards.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Bears OVER 50.5

Note: I grabbed OVER 50.5 as soon as it dropped below 51 at most places.  51 is such a key number for NFL totals that I pulled the trigger.  Of course, I wish I would have waited as this total is 48.5 as of this writing.  But there's pretty much no difference between 48.5 and 50.5 as 49 and 50 are really dead numbers unless there's missed XP's.  I love it even more at 48.5.  The tick down on this total has also brought the Rams' team total down to 26.5, and I recommend a bet on the OVER 26.5 as well as I'm very confident the Rams will do their part to get 27-plus points. They have scored at least 28 points in 10 of their last 12 games. BONUS BET: Rams OVER 26.5 Team Total

This total ticking down is solely due to the weather.  It's going to be 20 degrees in Chicago with 15-20 MPH winds.  There's been a lot said about Matthew Stafford in cold weather, but he has actually been great in bad weather recently.  It was windy and rainy in Carolina and he threw for 304 yards and 3 TD while leading the Rams to 34 points.  It was windy and rainy in Seattle and he led the Rams to 37 points and 581 total yards against arguably the league's best defense.  Last year in Philadelphia in the divisional round, it was freezing temps with snow and Stafford threw for 324 yards and 2 TD while leading the Rams to 402 total yards against that Super Bowl Eagles defense.  All this talk about the weather is overblown.  If it was perfect weather, this total should be in the upper-50's.

The Rams are a perfect 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 51 or more combined points in all seven games.  The Rams and their opponents have combined to average a whopping 63.4 points per game in those seven games.  This includes two games against Arizona and two games against Carolina, two of the worst offenses in the NFL.

The Rams are hitting on all cylinders offensively scoring 34 or more points in nine of their last 12 games.  They have the best offense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring at 30.7 points per game, 1st in total offense at 395.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense and even get back RG Kevin Dotson this week, who is one of the best guards in the game.  He's a big reason the Rams rank 1st in success rate running the football.  And their ability to run the ball opens up everything for Stafford.

The Bears will offer little resistance defensively.  They rank 29th in total defense at 365.1 yards per game and 29th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are 27th against the run allowing 132.6 rushing yards per game and 29th at 5.0 yards per carry.  The Bears lost LB T.J. Edwards (67 tackles) to a season-ending injury against the Packers last week in their wild 31-27 comeback win that saw 58 combined points.  The Packers did whatever they wanted to offensively and finished with 421 total yards.  It was cold and windy in that game, too.

The Bears just played in a classic shootout with the 49ers in Week 17 in a 42-38 loss for 80 combined points.  They are really a dead nuts OVER team in their current state.  Their offense is fully healthy with Caleb Williams having his full compliment of weapons in WR's Odunze, Moore and Burden, TE's Loveland and Kmet and the 2-headed monster at RB in Swift and Monangai.  They also have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL with PFF ranking them 3rd.  They surrendered a league-low 13 sacks this season, and they paved the way for the 3rd-best rushing attack in the NFL at 141.6 rushing yards per game.

The Bears will stay hot on offense against a Rams defense that has cratered here down the stretch.  The Rams are allowing 28.3 points per game in their last seven games.  Again, that includes four games against two of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Cardinals (twice) and Panthers (twice).  Teams are getting whatever they want against this Rams secondary, which is now down another starter with CB Akhello Witherspoon being placed on IR after suffering another injury against Carolina.  Bryce Young led the Panthers to 31 points and 264 passing yards against them last week.

The weather is also negated by the fact that both teams are going to be able to run the football with a ton of success.  I've already stated why the Rams will be successful on the ground, but the Bears' 3rd-ranked rushing attack will be, too.  The Rams are allowing 4.7 yards per carry in their last seven games.  The Falcons rushed for 219 yards on 33 carries and the Seahawks 171 yards on 25 carries recently.  Whatever team is down is going to be able to make a comeback in what should be a back and forth game that features plenty of offensive fireworks.  The only thing I'm certain of is neither of these defenses are going to be able to get many stops.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa/UAB OVER 156.5

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all games this season and not once going to OT.  The Golden Hurricane rank 44th in adjusted offense and 173rd in adjusted defense.  They are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall and have gone for at least 160 combined points in seven of their last 10 games.  This total of 156.5 is very low for a game involving Tulsa right now.

UAB ranks 90th in adjusted tempo and 116th in adjusted offense.  The Blazers have gone for at least 171 combined points in four of their last seven games overall.  They are scoring 83.4 points per game this season with Tulsa scoring 87.6 points per game.  I expect both teams to get into the 80's today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Oakland/Green Bay OVER 155

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Golden Grizzlies rank 25th in adjusted tempo, 69th in adjusted offense and 263rd in adjusted defense.  They are 13-5 OVER in all games this season while scoring 83.5 points per game and allowing 82.3 points per game and have not played an OT game all season.  This total of 155 is very low for a game involving Oakland.

Green Bay is playing its best offense of the season scoring 72 or more points in six straight.  They are coming off 88 points against Cleveland State and 80 against Northern Kentucky.  The Phoenix rank 135th in adjusted offense but just 309th in adjusted defense.  This total of 155 is very low for a game involving two teams that rank this poorly on defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on IPFW -4

I love the spot for IPFW today.  The Mastadons will be out for revenge from a 77-55 road loss at Milwaukee on December 29th.  That was a rare poor performance by them as they shot 36.2% from the field and 21.9% from 3-point range.  They have still gone 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall, and I expect them to have their revenge in the rematch here.

They have the rest advantage after having the last week off.  Milwaukee just lost 73-60 at home to Oakland on Thursday and has just two days to get ready.  The Panthers have been terrible since that win over IPFW, going 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are also without their best player in Seth Hubbard (16.6 PPG) due to injury.  Bet IPFW Sunday.

15* Lakers/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 224.5

The Lakers will be without both Luka Doncic (33.6 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and Austin Reaves (26.6 PPG, 6.3 APG) tonight.  I don't know where the scoring is going to come from from them.  They will have to play more defensive-minded lineups features Marcus Smart (9.4 PPG, 39.4% shooting) and Jarred Vanderbilt (5.1 PPG).

The Portland Trail Blazers have been struggling to score for a while now and have had to go more big lineups with all their injuries.  They are without Deni Avidja (26.1 PPG, 6.9 APG) and Kris Murray (6.1 PPG), plus both Grant (19.8 PPG) and Holiday (15.5 PPG, 7.3 APG) are questionable.

The Blazers are 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 games overall finishing with 225 or fewer combined points in 11 of those 15 games, including 222 or fewer in 10 of them.  This total of 224.5 is very high for a game involving the Blazers and Lakers in their current states.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle +14

It was just announced this week that Gonzaga star F Braden Huff (17.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG) will miss 4-6 weeks with a knee injury.  The Bulldogs were able to overcome his loss to win and cover in a 86-65 win at Washington State on Thursday in their first game without him.  This is the game it comes crashing down on them.

Now the Bulldogs will be playing their 2nd road game in 3 days and short-handed.  They take on a underrated Seattle team that nearly upset them at home already this season.  They won 80-72 as 24.5-point home favorites against Seattle.

The Redhawks only shot 36.1% from the field while the Bulldogs shot 49.2% yet they still only lost by 8 points on the road in that first meeting.  There's room for improvement in the shooting department, and I expect it tonight from a Seattle team that is 8-2 SU at home this season.  The Redhawks will give the Bulldogs a run for their money again tonight and stay within this inflated 14-point spread in the rematch.  Bet Seattle Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Hornets/Warriors OVER 234

With the quartet of Ball (20.4 PPG, 7.8 APG), Bridges (19.7 PPG), Miller (19.4 PPG) and Knueppel (19.0 PPG) all healthy right now, the Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 245 points with the Jazz, 226 with the Clippers and 252 with the Lakers.

The Warriors are an OVER team as long as Stephen Curry is healthy.  He is, and the Warriors and their opponents have combined for at least 233 points in four of their last five games overall.

This is a rematch from a 132-125 road win by the Warriors on December 31st for a whopping 257 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch in Golden State tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* 49ers/Seahawks NFC Divisional Round ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +7.5

This is the best coaching job of Kyle Shanahan's career.  The 49ers have been one of the most injured teams in the NFL all season.  They still found themselves playing for the No. 1 seed in Week 18.  They lost to the Seahawks in that game, and they want revenge in a big way against their division rivals.

Shanahan and the 49ers are at their most dangerous when they have been counted out.  They were counted out last week when the Eagles took a ton of money opening -3 and closing -6.  The 49ers upset the Eagles 23-19 on the road, and there was nothing fluky about it.  They were -2 in turnovers and still won while outgaining the Eagles 361 to 307, or by 54 yards.  They held the Eagles to 27 yards on 26 plays to close out the game.

This despite the 49ers playing with three new starters at LB due to injuries suffered in the loss to the Seahawks the week prior.  Eric Hendricks played a great game in his first start for the 49ers and will get the start again.  It looks like Dee Winters and Luke Gifford both have a good shot at returning this week at LB.  And their defensive line is as healthy as it has been in a very long time, plus they have a shutdown corner in Lenoir who literally took AJ Brown out of the game.  

Lenoir could do the same against the NFL's leading receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba if the 49ers so choose.  It's an ace up defensive coordinator Robert Saleh's sleeve that I would be surprised if he doesn't deploy this week.  Saleh is doing the best coaching job of his career, too.

The 49ers got LT Trent Williams back healthy last week after they didn't have him against the Seahawks in Week 18.  He is arguably the best LT in the game.  Ricky Pearsall sat out last week, but there's a good chance he returns this week.  The 49ers didn't have Pearsall against the Seahawks in Week 18, either.  I don't think TE Jake Tonges is that big of a downgrade from Kittle and may actually be the better receiver.  Demarcus Robinson had 7 receptions for 111 yards and a score against the Eagles.  No matter who Shanahan puts out there, this offense is productive.

The Seahawks obviously have the more favorable rest spot after getting a bye week.  But they also have all the pressure on them to perform, most notably Sam Darnold, who has come up short in big games time and time again in his career.  Now Darnold suffered an oblique injury in practice that has him listed as questionable.  While I expect him to play, there's no question that oblique injury will limit him.  And this could be the classic Darnold 'seeing ghosts' game.

After beating the 49ers 13-3 in Week 18, the Seahawks are 'fat and happy' and don't feel like they need to make any adjustments.  You know Kyle Shanahan is going to come up with the best adjustments possible to be more successful offensively.  And with Williams and likely Pearsall back this week, he has a lot more chess pieces to play with.  Their offense will be better, and Saleh will continue to get the most out of this defense, which should be a little healthier this week at LB.

The 49ers are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Seahawks.  Brock Purdy is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS in eight career starts against them.  Purdy is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four career trips to Seattle, winning by 10.5 points per game on average.  Purdy is 7-1 SU in road games against NFC West opponents as a starter for the 49ers.  Shanahan is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the Wild Card and Divisional Round, including 3-0 SU as road underdogs.  The 49ers as a franchise are 11-0 SU in their last 11 Wild Card/Divisional Round games.

The Seahawks are riding a 7-game winning streak into the playoffs.  Teams on a 7+ game winning streak coming off a bye in the divisional round are 2-8 ATS since 2003.  Teams who outscore opponents by 11+ PPG while coming off a bye in the divisional round are 4-12 ATS over the last 20 years.  The 49ers are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games on short rest, including 9-3 SU on the road during this span.  Shanahan produced the single-highest offensive success rate against the Eagles since Vic Fangio became their defensive coordinator last week.  Getting +7.5 with San Francisco is just disrespectful this week.  Bet the 49ers Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs -5.5

I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They want revenge from a 104-103 road loss to Minnesota just six days ago on January 11th.  They blew a 14-point lead entering the 4th quarter and have not forgotten.  Look for them to get revenge in a big way with a blowout home win over the Timberwolves this time around.

This is a terrible spot for the Timberwolves, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-105 road loss to the Houston Rockets last night.  It appears they will get Anthony Edwards back, but Rudy Gobert is questionable after playing 32 minutes last night.  Randle played 40 minutes, DiVincenzo 39 minutes and McDaniels 35 minutes last night.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Spurs tonight.  Bet the Spurs Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Spurs UNDER 228.5

This is a rematch from a 104-103 home win by the Timberwolves just six days ago on January 11th.  That game saw just 207 combined points, and this game will be a defensive battle as well.  This total of 228.5 has been set too high as familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

The Spurs have been a dead nuts UNDER team since getting Wembenyama back and healthy.  Indeed, the Spurs are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight games overall finishing with 220 or fewer combined points in six consecutive games coming in.

Minnesota is a tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-105 loss in Houston last night that saw just 215 combined points.  The Timberwolves won't be looking to push the tempo tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Long Beach State/Northridge OVER 157

CS-Northridge is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Matadors rank 12th in adjusted tempo and 19th in average length of offensive possession.  They are 11-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Matadors and their opponents have combined for at least 163 points in six of their last seven games overall.  This total of 157 is very short for a game involving Northridge.

Long Beach State is 8-2 OVER in its last 10 games overall.  The Beach and their opponents have combined for at least 165 points in six of their last seven games overall.  This total of 157 is very short for a game involving the Beach as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Purdue/USC Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on USC +9.5

The USC Trojans are 6-2 SU in their last eight games overall with their only two losses both coming on the road to Michigan and Michigan State.  They upset Minnesota as 3.5-point road dogs and handled Maryland by 17 as 9.5-point home favorites in their last two games coming in.  Now they will relish this opportunity to beat Top 5 ranked Purdue.

The rest situation really favors USC.  The Trojans have had the last three days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 8 days.  The Boilermakers are coming off a 79-72 home win over Iowa on Wednesday and have just two days off in between games, plus the long travel out to USC for their first trip out West.  They will be playing their 4th game in 11 days as well.

USC is 7-1 SU at home this season where they are scoring 93.3 points per game.  Asking Purdue to go on the road and beat the Trojans by double-digits to beat us is asking too much tonight.  Bet USC Saturday.

15* Big Sky PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Washington/Idaho State OVER 153

Eastern Washington is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Eagles are 12-4 OVER in all games this season including 10-1 OVER in road games.  They are 125th in adjusted tempo, 172nd in adjusted offense and 322nd in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 154 or more combined points in 13 of their 17 games this season, so this total of 153 is very low for a game involving the Eagles.

Idaho State is 7-1 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The Bengals rank 119th in adjusted offense but 275th in adjusted defense.  They Bengals and their opponents have combined for at least 157 points in five of their last six games overall.  This total of 153 is also very short for a game involving Idaho State right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Bills/Broncos AFC Divisional Round No-Brainer on Denver ML +100

The Denver Broncos are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall.  Even in the game they lost, it was a misleading final as they outgained the Jaguars 445 to 346 but were -2 in turnovers in Week 15.  They were 3.5-point home favorites over the Jaguars, who were just 1.5-point home favorites over the Bills last week.  So from a line value perspective alone, the Broncos should be closer to 3-point favorites here if the Jaguars were just favored over the Bills in what was essentially a coin flip game.

The Bills came out of that game battered a bruised.  Josh Allen came into the game with a toe injury, and he proceeded to get checked for a concussion, and suffered injuries to his hand and his knee throughout the game.  He is nowhere near 100%, and he just doesn't have much help around him, especially with all the other injuries they are dealing with.

WR's Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis both suffered season-ending injuries in the game, and RB Ty Johnson is questionable.  The Bills are basically down to 3 healthy receivers in Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks and Keon Coleman.  Only Shakir of those three is reliable as Cooks is a journeyman while Coleman has been a healthy scratch at times this year.  The Broncos are one of the best defenses in the NFL at defending tight ends, and Patrick Surtain could shadow Dalton Kincaid, something he has done in the past against elite TE's.

Defensively, the Bills lost SS Jordan Poyer (71 tackles) and LB Terrel Bernard (67 tackles) to injuries against the Jaguars.  They were already without CB Maxwell Hairston (18 tackles, 2 INT).  This is already one of the worst defenses in the NFL, especially against the run.  They rank 28th allowing 137.2 rushing yards per game and 30th allowing 5.2 yards per carry.  The Jaguars just rushed for 154 yards and 6.7 per carry against them last week.

You can bet head coach Sean Payton is going to put this game in the hands of RJ Harvey and this Denver rushing attack as much as possible to exploit Buffalo's biggest weakness, which is their run defense.  The Broncos are better than the Bills everywhere except at QB, which is why I'm not that concerned about backing Bo Nix here.  The Broncos will be able to run the ball, which will open things up for Nix in the play-action passing game and he won't have to do it all on his own.

I obviously like the fact that the Broncos earned the No. 1 seed and a bye week.  They will be fresh and ready to go, and they are the healthiest team in the NFL in these playoffs which is a huge advantage for them.  They have the best defense in these playoffs if it's not the Texans.  The Broncos rank 3rd in scoring defense at 18.3 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 278.2 yards per game and 1st at 4.8 yards per play.  They are 2nd against the run at 91.1 yards per game, so they will be able to contain James Cook.

The Broncos have the best pass rush in the NFL ranking 1st in the league in sacks by a landslide with 68 sacks.  Josh Allen struggles against teams that can pressure the passer, and we saw that time and time again this season.  The Falcons rank 2nd in sacks, and the Bills were upset 24-14 in Atlanta and managed just 291 total yards.  The Browns were 3rd in sacks, and the Bills were fortunate to escape with a 23-20 win in Cleveland against Shedeur Sanders, managing just 259 total yards.  The Texans are 9th in sacks, and the Bills lost 23-19 in Houston to Davis Mills.

Sean Payton is 4-0 SU in the playoffs with extended prep time/rest.  The Broncos are extra motivated after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Bills in Buffalo last year.  The Broncos are 13-2 SU in home games with Carl Cheffers as the head ref.  Sean Payton is 16-3 SU with Cheffers in his career as the head official.  The Bills are on a short week playing the early Saturday game after facing the Jaguars last Sunday.  I'll gladly back the more rested, healthier, team that is better everywhere but at QB in this game at home.  Bet the Broncos on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCF +9.5

We saw Michigan, Iowa State and Vanderbilt all have their unbeaten records come to an end within the last week.  Arizona is on upset alert today on the road against a UCF team that has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.

It's a huge letdown spot for Arizona, which is coming off a lackluster 79-72 home win over rival Arizona State as 21.5-point favorites.  With their unbeaten record comes expectations from the public and oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  Asking the Wildcats to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

UCF is 11-1 at home this season.  That includes 2-0 in Big 12 play with an upset win over Kansas and a win over Cincinnati.  They followed up that win over Cincinnati with a 82-73 road win at Kansas State as 2.5-point dogs.  They are licking their chops at this opportunity to take down the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Northwestern Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +6

We saw Michigan, Iowa State and Vanderbilt all have their unbeaten records come to an end within the last week.  Now it's Nebraska's turn this week with a road loss to Northwestern Saturday.  With their unbeaten record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Huskers today.

It's also time to 'buy low' on the Wildcats, who have opened 0-6 in Big Ten play with five losses by 11 points or fewer, so they have been competitive in all but one game.  They just took Illinois to the wire at home last time out, and they will take Nebraska to the wire at home today.

The Wildcats are 8-2 SU in their last 10 meetings with the Huskers with both losses coming by 6 points or fewer, making for a 10-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 6-point spread.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Missouri ML +105

The LSU Tigers are without their best player in Dedan Thomas Jr. (16.2 PPG, 7.0 APG).  It's no surprise they have gone 0-4 SU in their last four games without him including home losses to both South Carolina and Kentucky.

They are coming off a gutting loss at the buzzer to Kentucky on Wednesday after blowing a big lead in the 2H.  I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and I question their mental state heading into this one.  They only have two days to get ready for this game now.

Missouri is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset Florida and Auburn at home, and they upset Kentucky on the road.  Now they are once again underdogs here to this short-handed LSU team.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Missouri on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Ivy League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cornell/Yale OVER 175

Cornell is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Big Red rank 8th in adjusted tempo, 2nd in average length of offensive possession, 64th in adjusted offense, 12th in effective FG percentage offense, 351st in adjusted defense and 353rd in effective FG percentage defense.

The Big Red are 10-3 OVER in all games this season including 7-2 OVER in road games.  They have gone for 173 or more combined points in 12 of their 15 games this season, so this total of 175 isn't even that large for a game involving Cornell.

Yale is an elite offensive team ranking 38th in adjusted offense.  The Bulldogs are a terrible defensive team ranking 240th in adjusted defense.  This game sets up for a great OVER bet.  These teams combined for 191 and 180 points in their two regular season meetings last year.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Summit League PLAY OF THE DAY on South Dakota/North Dakota OVER 158.5

South Dakota is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Coyotes rank 42nd in adjusted tempo and 357th in adjusted defense.  They are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall with 176 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  This total of 158.5 is very short for a game involving South Dakota.

North Dakota is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall finishing with 160 or more combined points in all four games.  The Fighting Hawks are also a terrible defensive team ranking 335th in adjusted defense.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 158 or more combined points in all five, 171 or more combined points in three of the last four.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan/Akron OVER 167

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 29th in adjusted tempo, 24th in average length of offensive possession, 20th in adjusted offense and 4th in effective FG percentage.  The Zips are averaging 93.0 points per game this season despite not playing a single OT game.

Western Michigan is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall.  The Broncos are a terrible defensive team ranking 301st in adjusted defense.  I would be surprised if Akron doesn't come close to 100 points today to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  WMU has scored at least 76 points in five consecutive games and will do their part as well against this suspect Akron defense that ranks 180th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Buffalo/Miami Ohio OVER 159.5

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Redhawks are averaging 93.3 points per game this season and they've only played one OT game.  They rank 46th in adjusted tempo and 75th in adjusted offense.  They are 11-4 OVER in all games this season and they have combined for 159 or more points with their opponents in seven of their last eight games overall.  This total of 159.5 is very short for a game involving Miami Ohio.

Buffalo profiles as an OVER team with a great offense that ranks 103rd in adjusted offense and a terrible defense at 306th in adjusted defense.  The Bulls are 9-6 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 79.9 points per game and haven't played an OT game all season.  The Bulls are 3-0 OVER in their last three games going for 168 combined points with Kent State and 171 with Ohio in their last two games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Kentucky/Tennessee ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -5.5

Tennessee is 10-0 at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Vols have recent home wins over Louisville by 21, Texas by 14 and Texas A&M by 5.  They will make easy work of this overrated Kentucky team, too.

Kentucky is 1-2 SU in true road games with the lone win coming at the buzzer against an LSU team that was missing their best player.  They also lost by 15 at Alabama and by 8 at Louisville, a common opponent that the Vols blasted by 21.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* CAA PLAY OF THE DAY on Elon/Hofstra OVER 149.5

Elon is a dead nuts OVER team going 12-4 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Phoenix rank 82nd in adjusted offense and 294th in adjusted defense.  The Phoenix and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in six of their last seven games overall, and 160 or more in 14 of their 18 games this season.  This total of 149.5 is very low for a game involving Elon.

Hofstra is also a very good offensive team ranking 100th in adjusted offense.  The Pride are 10-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Pride are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Baylor/Kansas FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 155.5

Baylor is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bears rank 14th in adjusted offense and 94th in adjusted defense.  They are 9-6 OVER in all games this season and scoring 88.7 points per game.  Baylor and its opponents have combined for at least 155 points in 12 of their 16 games this season.  This total of 155 is very short for a game involving the Bears.

The Jayhawks have been a juggernaut offensively when Darryn Peterson (21.8 PPG) has been on the court.  Well, he has only played in eight games this season, but he has been healthy for Big 12 play and the offense is thriving.  The Jayhawks have averaged 82.9 points per game in the eight games in which Peterson has played.  He may be the best player in the country, and he's certainly the best scorer.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Cavs/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia ML -118

I love the spot for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  The 76ers want revenge from a 133-107 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday.  Now they get their shot at quick revenge here two days later at home.  They will be the more motivated team tonight.

The Cavaliers shot 52.6% from the field and 43.5% from 3-point range, while the 76ers had one of their worst shooting nights of the season, making 40.4% from the field and 27.9% from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

While the 76ers are fully healthy with only Dominick Barlow (8.3 PPG) questionable, the Cavaliers will be down two key players that they had in that first meeting.  Both Darius Garland (18.0 PPG, 6.9 APG) and Sam Merrill (13.8 PPG) will be out for this game after getting injured on Wednesday.  Garland in particular was having a huge game with 20 points and 7 assists before departing.  Not having Merrill's shooting makes the Cavaliers much easier to defend.

This line is basically the same as it was in that first meeting as well, and there has to be an adjustment for not having Garland and Merrill.  There also has to be an adjustment for the fact that the 76ers will be the more motivated team for revenge, while the Cavaliers will relax and won't be that motivated to beat this team again.  Bet the 76ers on the Money Line Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Toledo/Kent State OVER 169.5

Kent State is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all games this season including 6-2 OVER in home games.  The Golden Flashes are scoring 90.4 points per game overall including 98 points per game at home.  They rank 19th in adjusted tempo, 103rd in adjusted offense and 245th in adjusted defense.

Toledo has a similar profile ranking 111th in adjusted tempo, 101st in adjusted offense and 263rd i adjusted defense.  The Rockets are scoring 82.7 points per game and have not played an OT game yet.  They are coming off a 101-85 home win over Ohio for 186 combined points.

Kent State's last three MAC games have seen 189 combined points with Bowling Green, 172 with Central Michigan and 168 with Buffalo.  None of those teams are as potent as this Toledo offense.  The Golden Flashes will control the tempo playing at home in what will be an absolute shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on CS-Northridge/UC-San Diego OVER 159

CS-Northridge is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Matadors rank 11th in adjusted tempo and 19th in average length of offensive possession.  They are 10-6 OVER in all games this season including 6-2 OVER in all road games.  The Matadors and their opponents have combined for at least 165 points in five of their last six games overall.

UC-San Diego is a solid offensive team ranking 85th in adjusted offense and a mediocre defensive team ranking 141st in adjusted defense.  The Tritons have scored at least 80 points in nine of their last 13 games overall.  They will easy top 80 points here against Northridge, which ranks 223rd in adjusted defense.  Northridge has scored at least 79 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  I expect both teams to get into the 80's in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE WEEK on CS-Fullerton/UC-Davis OVER 167.5

Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team scoring 86.7 points per game and allowing 85.6 points per game this season.  They still haven't played an OT game, either.  The Titans rank 4th in adjusted tempo and 4th in average length of offensive possession.  They rank 240th in adjusted defense and 340th in effective FG percentage (56.4%) defense as well.

UC-Davis is 9-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Aggies are scoring 81.0 points per game and also have not played an OT game yet.  UC-Davis is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 169 or more combined points in 3 of their last 5 games, and 160 or more in six straight.  The Aggies have scored at least 81 points in six consecutive games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Celtics/Heat NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 233.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season by a wide margin.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  They are scoring 122.2 points per game and allowing 117.1 points per game at home this season.

The Boston Celtics don't play fast, but they play as efficient as anyone in the NBA with their ability to shoot a ton of 3-pointers at a high clip.  In fact, the Celtics rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating, which is a big reason Joe Mazulla is the favorite to win Coach of the Year with his ability to get the most out of this team without Jayson Tatum.

This will be a rematch from a 129-116 home win by the Celtics on December 19th which saw 245 combined points.  The Heat only shot 39% as a team in that game as well.  These teams combined for 92 3-point attempts, and it will be more of the same tonight with a lot of long rebounds and chances to run.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Thunder/Rockets NBA ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 222.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 28th in pace and 9th in defensive rating.  They have gone 6-1 UNDER in their last seven games overall with 216 or fewer combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 222.5 is very high for a game involving the Rockets, who have been held to 105 points or fewer in five of their last six games so they are struggling mightily offensively right now.

The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 1st in defensive rating by a wide margin this season.  They just held the Spurs to 98 points last time out, and they will suffocate the Houston Rockets tonight as well.  But I think Houston can hold them in check by slowing the tempo to a snail's pace at home tonight.

In their lone previous meeting this season, the Rockets and Thunder were tied 104-104 at the end of regulation for just 208 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* CAA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Elon/Northeastern OVER 160

Elon is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Phoenix rank 76th in adjusted offense and 306th in adjusted defense.  The Phoenix and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in five of their last six games overall, and 160 or more in 13 of their 17 games this season.

Northeastern ranks 94th in adjusted tempo, 159th in adjusted offense and 294th in adjusted defense.  The Huskies are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 159 or more combined points in all seven games, and 162 or more in six of them.  This total of 160 is too short for a game involving the Huskies and Phoenix.

In fact, we saw that play out already once this season with Elon winning 103-91 over Northeastern on December 29th in their first meeting this season.  That meeting saw 194 combined points, so we have a lot of room to spare in cashing this OVER 160 in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Green Bay/Cleveland State OVER 149

Cleveland State really profiles as an OVER team.  The Vikings rank 101st in adjusted tempo and 354th in adjusted defense.  They are 10-5 OVER in all games this season and have gone for at least 145 combined points in 16 of their 18 games this season, and 152 or more combined points in 13 of those 18 games.  This total of 149 is very low for a game involving Cleveland State.

Green Bay is playing its best offense of the season scoring 72 or more points in five straight.  The Phoenix rank 162nd in adjusted offense but just 310th in adjusted defense.  This total of 149 is very low for a game involving two teams that rank in the 300's in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Robert Morris/IU Indy OVER 158.5

IU Indy ranks 1st in the entire country in adjusted tempo.  They force their opponents to play at a break-neck pace and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  This total of 158.5 is very short for a game involving IU Indy.  In fact, it's their 2nd-lowest total of the entire season.  There's clearly value with the OVER.

Robert Morris is a perfect 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall with 153 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The Colonials are a solid offensive team ranking 151st in adjusted offense but a terrible defensive team ranking 257th in adjusted defense.  IU Indy is even worse on defense, ranking 357th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +9.5

It's time to 'buy low' on Northwestern after a 0-5 start in Big Ten play and 'sell high' on Illinois after a 4-1 start in Big Ten play.  Asking the Fighting Illini to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Northwestern could easily be 4-1 instead of 0-5 in Big Ten play.  Four of their losses have come by a combined 22 points, and none of those came by more than 10 points.  Illinois has played two true road games all season winning by 8 at Ohio State and by 6 at Iowa.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Northwestern pulled off the outright upset in each of the last two meetings in Evanston.  The Wildcats haven't lost a home game by more than 6 points all season.  Bet Northwestern Wednesday.

15* Summit League PLAY OF THE DAY on SDSU/NDSU OVER 148

South Dakota State is a perfect 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall.  The Jackrabbits and their opponents have combined for at least 153 points in seven consecutive games overall.  This total of 148 is very low for a game involving SDSU right now.

North Dakota State is 5-1-1 OVER in its last seven games overall.  The Bison and their opponents have combined for at least 154 points in three straight, and 147 or more in seven of their last nine games overall.  This total of 148 is pretty low for a game involving the Bison as well.

NDSU ranks 130th in adjusted offense but just 173rd in adjusted defense.  SDSU ranks 169th in adjusted offense but just 226th in adjusted defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +8

Temple is playing too well to be a 8-point road underdog to Memphis tonight.  The Owls are 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall including outright upset wins over Davidson and Charlotte on the road.

This is the worst Memphis team of the Penny Hardaway era.  The Tigers are 7-8 this season and have just one double-digit scorer on their roster.  They rank 148th in adjusted offense as scoring has been a real problem, which makes it difficult to get margin.  They also rank 337th in turnover percentage turning it over on 20.5% of their offensive possessions.

The Tigers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their three wins came over Alabama State, North Texas and Rice.  They have had just two days to get ready for this game after a 89-78 loss at FAU on Sunday, while Temple has had the last six days off and has a big rest advantage as a result.  

The Owls are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Memphis not once losing by double-digits.  Bet Temple Wednesday.

15* Cavs/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 235

Both the Cavaliers and 76ers are as healthy as they have been all season.  And when they are this healthy, they are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  This figures to be a shootout tonight with elite offense on both sides.

The Cavaliers and their opponents have gone for at least 235 combined points in each of their last four games.  That includes 280 and 253 in their two meetings with Minnesota.

The 76ers are thriving offensively right now scoring 115 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.  That includes 123 or more in five of those.  With Embiid, George, Maxey, Edecombe, Grimes, Oubre and Barlow all healthy right now, the 76ers are potent offensively.  

The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the 76ers and Cavaliers.  They combined for 253 and 261 points in their last two meetings.  This total of 235 is way too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Tulsa/Charlotte OVER 147

Tulsa is a dead nuts OVER team going 10-4 OVER in all games this season and not once going to OT.  The Golden Hurricane and their opponents have combined for at least 147 points in 13 of their 16 games this season.  They rank 44th in adjusted offense and 180th in adjusted defense.

Charlotte is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall going for 147 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The 49ers rank 114th in adjusted offense but just 269th in adjusted defense.  So this game will feature efficient offense up against some really bad defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kentucky -3.5

LSU is coming off three consecutive losses including the last two by double-digits with a 10-point home loss to South Carolina and a 11-point road loss at Vanderbilt.  This poor play has coincided with the loss of their best player in Dedan Thomas Jr. (16.2 PPG, 7.0 APG).  They are a very poor team without him and it's showing.

LSU will be without Thomas Jr. again tonight when they take on Kentucky, a Wildcats team that is rapidly improving.  The Wildcats are 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall with impressive wins over St. John's by 12, Indiana by 12 and Mississippi State by 24.  Their only losses came to Alabama and Missouri.  They will make easy work of the short-handed Tigers tonight.  Bet Kentucky Wednesday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on ECU/USF OVER 156.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls rank 17th in adjusted tempo and 18th in average length of offensive possession.  They are scoring 91.1 points per game on the season and allowing 79.8 points per game.  11 of their 16 games this season have seen 156 or more combined points.

East Carolina will have no problem getting up and down with the Bulls.  The Pirates rank 92nd in adjusted tempo this season.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall and coming off a 87-85 loss to UAB for 172 combined points.  UAB is a team that profiles similarly to USF.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Auburn/Missouri OVER 153

Auburn is 11-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Tigers and their opponents have combined for at least 152 points in 14 of their 16 games this season.  This total of 153 is very low for a game involving Auburn.

Auburn ranks 9th in the country in adjusted offense this season.  They are scoring 87.5 points per game overall.  Missouri ranks 48th in adjusted offense while averaging 81.7 points per game overall, including 89.8 points per game at home.  Both teams prefer to play fast on offense as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Big Ten Total DOMINATOR on Iowa/Purdue UNDER 144.5

Iowa is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Hawkeyes rank 339th in adjusted tempo and 20th in adjusted defense.  This total of 144.5 is very high for a game involving the Hawkeyes.  They have gone for 144 or fewer combined points in nine of their last 11 games overall.

Purdue also plays at a snail's pace ranking 287th in adjusted tempo.  The Boilermakers are also elite defensively ranking 22nd in adjusted defense.  This game will see very few possessions which means fewer opportunities for points, and fewer opportunities to foul to get either team in the bonus.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Lakers are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 16 in San Antonio as 9-point dogs, by 4 at home to the Bucks as 3-point favorites and by 12 at Sacramento as 9.5-point favorites.  That was a short-handed Kings team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back last night, too.

Now the Lakers are in the bad spot playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  LeBron James is 50/50 to play tonight, and Luke Doncic suffered an injury in the 2H of the loss to the Kings that may keep him out tonight.  Both are listed as questionable.  Not to mention, the Lakers are already without Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura.

The Hawks are rolling going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall beating the Pelicans by 17 as 10.5-point home favorites, the Nuggets by 23 as 3-point road favorites and the Warriors by 13 as 7-point road dogs.  Getting CJ McCollum in the trade with the Wizards for Trae Young is a very underrated move in their favor.

McCollum (18.6 PPG) gives the Hawks an extra scorer AND he actually plays defense, unlike Young.  Jalen Johnson (23.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 8.2 APG) is the most improved player in the NBA, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (20.6 PPG) has taken his game to the next level.  Okongwu (16.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG) is one of the more underrated big men in the league, too.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor/Oklahoma State OVER 165.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on an OVER.  Baylor went under the total in each of its last three games against arguably the three best defensive teams in the Big 12 in TCU, Iowa State and Houston.  Oklahoma State went under the total in each of its last two games against UCF and Iowa State.  But these are two dead nuts OVER teams and things will come much easier for both offensively tonight.

Oklahoma State ranks 4th in adjusted tempo, 38th in averaging length of offensive possession and 62nd in adjusted offense.  The Cowboys had gone 4-0 OVER in their previous four games combining for 170 points with UMKC, 183 with Fullerton, 180 with Bethune-Cookman and 182 with Texas Tech.

Baylor is an elite offensive team ranking 20th in adjusted offense but one of the worst defensive teams in the Big 12 ranking 96th in adjusted defense.  The Bears also prefer to play faster ranking 127th in adjusted tempo.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma State +1

Oklahoma State is 11-0 at home this season with a 87-76 win as 2-point favorites over UCF in their lone Big 12 home game this season.  That performance was sandwiched between a pair of road losses to Texas Tech and Iowa State, two of the best teams in the Big 12.  Now they take a big step down in class here against Baylor.

The Bears have been dreadful in their last three games going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS.  They lost by 6 as 3-point dogs at TCU, then were blown out by 10 at home by Iowa State and by 22 at home by Houston.  They are a tired team playing their 3rd game in 7 days, and their tired legs will be tested by an Oklahoma State team that ranks 4th in adjusted tempo.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Oklahoma State Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks -3

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They were coming off a 105-101 road win over the Lakers and had a letdown last time out in a 108-104 loss to the short-handed Nuggets on the road.  Now they are refocused back at home taking on a border rival in the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They also want revenge from a 103-100 loss in Minnesota in their first meeting.

The Timberwolves are a tired, banged up team right now.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days off two straight wars against Cleveland and San Antonio.  They will be resting Anthony Edwards (28.9 PPG), and Rudy Gobert (11.0 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG) has been suspended.

The Bucks are pretty much fully healthy right now with Giannis looking like his best self again.  He is going to be able to attack the rim at will with no Gobert for rim protection, and that will be the difference in this game with the Bucks getting whatever they want at the rim in this game.  Not having to worry about Anthony Edwards is a big deal, too.  Milwaukee should be a much bigger favorite tonight.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* Spurs/Thunder NBC ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 33-7 this season.  Three of those losses have come to the San Antonio Spurs.  It's safe to say the Thunder will be max motivated playing with triple-revenge tonight, and I expect to see them put forth their best effort of the season as a result.

I expect the Spurs to be 'fat and happy' knowing they've already beaten this team three times.  They have zero motivation to beat them a 4th time as they have already won the season series.  This will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Spurs after playing two wars in Boston and Minnesota.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Thunder after failing to cover the spread in five consecutive games coming into this one.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time only missing Isaiah Hartenstein as their lone key contributor that will sit this one out.  The Spurs are without Devin Vassell (14.9 PPG).  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall +6.5

UConn is a tired team right now which is a big reason the Huskies are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They failed to cover in a home win over Marquette, needed OT to beat Providence as double-digit favorites on the road, and were flat in a 12-point home win over DePaul as 19.5-point favorites.

Now the Huskies will be playing their 4th game in 10 days tonight and have to hit the road again to take on a very gritty, tough Seton Hall team.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank, and this is a game they could easily lose outright.

Seton Hall is one of the most improved teams in the country this season going 14-2 SU & 10-6 ATS.  Their two losses came by 2 points to USC and by 8 to Villanova.  They have opened 4-1 in Big East play with three road wins already.  Now they are home where they are 8-1 SU this season and it will be a raucous atmosphere with Top 10 UConn coming to town.  Bet Seton Hall Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Heat OVER 230

This is a very low total for a game involving the Miami Heat tonight.  The Heat rank 1st in pace this season and are scoring 121.9 points per game at home.  They will control the pace playing at home tonight.

The Suns have a lot more firepower now that they are healthy with Grayson Allen back and healthy.  He and Collin Gillespie are 3-point snipers, and both play big minutes.  That frees up a lot of things for Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks offensively when opponents have to worry about that outside shooting.

The Suns have gone under the total in five consecutive games which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Heat are also coming off two of their worst offensive performances of the season in two of their last three games to keep this total lower than it should be.  This is a great opportunity to 'buy low' on a over.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso/Belmont OVER 148.5

This total of 148.5 is very low for a game involving Belmont.  The Bruins are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They have gone for 151 or more combined points in nine of their last 13 games overall.  

The Bruins rank 84th in adjusted tempo, 29th in average length of offensive possession and 64th in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

Vaplaraiso is 6-3 OVER in its last nine games overall.  The Beacons and their opponents have combined for at least 148 points in four of their last seven games.  They went for 164 combined points with Murray State, 171 with Murray State, and 156 with Northwestern recently.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kent State/Buffalo OVER 162.5

Kent State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Golden Flashes are 10-4 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 23rd in adjusted tempo, 103rd in adjusted offense and 249th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Flashes and their opponents have combined for at least 161 points in 13 of their 16 games this season.

Buffalo is a perfect 5-0 OVER in all home games this season.  The Bulls rank 100th in adjusted offense and 298th in adjusted defense.  Like Kent State, the Bulls are much better on offense than they are on defense, making this a perfect match for an OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers -9

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They are coming off consecutive losses to the Spurs on the road and the Bucks at home.  They have had the last two days off, so they will be rested, motivated and ready to go tonight against the lowly Sacramento Kings.

This is a terrible spot for the Kings, who are coming off a 111-98 upset win as 14.5-point dogs to the Rockets last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Kings are already short-handed playing without Sabonis (17.2 PPG, 12.3 RPG), Murray (14.6 PPG) and Schroder (13.0 PPG).  They aren't very equipped to handle these back-to-backs right now.  They will be running on fumes tonight.

The Lakers own the Kings, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings including a 125-101 win in their most recent meeting on December 28th.  The Lakers are 13-6 SU & 11-8 ATS on the road this season.  They are fully healthy outside Austin Reaves heading into this one.  Bet the Lakers Monday.

20* Texans/Steelers ESPN MNF No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 23-0 SU at home on Monday Night Football dating back to 1992 when there have been fans in the stands.  Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 23-5 SU on Monday Night Football home or away.

The Steelers managed to beat the Ravens 26-24 as 4.5-point home underdogs in Week 18 to win the division and get into the playoffs.  They did it without their best weapon in DK Metcalf (59 receptions, 850 yards, 6 TD), a compliment to Aaron Rodgers and his ability to get the most out of this offense.  Rodgers threw for 294 yards and a TD in the win.

Now Metcalf is back and the Steelers are as healthy as they have been on offense all season.  No. 2 receiver Calvin Austin had 3 receptions for 55 yards and a TD against the Ravens in his return from injury.  Kenneth Gainwell is an absolute weapon out of the backfield, catching 8 balls for 64 yards in the win.

The Steelers are also very healthy on defense right now and playing well.  They got TJ Watt back for the game against Baltimore, and he is good to go for the playoffs.  The Steelers are 6th in the NFL in sacks this season, and they are great at getting pressure on opposing QB's.  And I think that will be the difference in this game.

CJ Stroud plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.  He is also not very mobile and more of a pocket passer.  The Steelers will be getting after him for four quarters.  Meanwhile, the Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out quicker than any other QB.  That helps negate Houston's pass rush, which ranks 9th in the NFL in sacks per game.  The Steelers will come up with creative ways to take away Houston's biggest strength, which is their pass rush.

The home-field advantage for the Steelers for a Monday Night game isn't being factored into this line enough.  This line should be much closer to PK.  So getting +3.5 with the Steelers at home is a tremendous value, which I grabbed early in the week.  I still think there's plenty of value at the current line of +3 as of this writing, and I wouldn't be surprised if it closes +2.5.  I fully expect the Steelers to win this game outright.  Bet the Steelers Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a 116-115 (OT) loss at Toronto on Sunday.  They will be max motivated for revenge here in the rematch.  They also played without Joel Embiid and Paul George yesterday.  There's a good chance one or both return for this game, especially Embiid.

The Raptors played without RJ Barrett, Brandon Ingram and Jacob Poeltl yesterday.  Barrett and Poeltl have already been ruled out for the rematch, and Ingram is battling a hand injury that has him questionable again.

I question how motivated the Raptors will be to beat this team for a 2nd consecutive day.  They are also much worse off in the depth department than the 76ers, so they aren't equipped to handle these back-to-backs as well.  The 76ers are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.

Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points when revenging two straight losses where opponent scored 100 or more points when they are off an upset win over a division opponent as an underdog are 54-21 (72%) ATS since 1997.  The 76ers are 11-7 SU & 13-5 ATS in all road games this season.  Bet the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Hawks/Warriors OVER 235

The Atlanta Hawks have been an OVER team with or without Trae Young.  His absence hasn't slowed them down one bit as they rank 2nd in pace this season behind only the Miami Heat.  They will continue playing at a break-neck pace the rest of the way with CJ McCollum making his Atlanta debut tonight.

The Golden State Warriors are more of an OVER team as long as Steph Curry is in the lineup, and he is in the lineup and playing well right now.  The Warriors have scored at least 119 points in 12 of their last 15 games overall.  They will hang a big number on the Hawks to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Hawks and Warriors.  They have combined for at least 239 points in six of those eight meetings.  This total of 235 is too short for a game involving the Hawks and Warriors right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Chargers/Patriots NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 45

The Patriots have an elite offense and are fully healthy on offense heading into the playoffs.  They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 28.8 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 379.4 yards per game and 1st at 6.5 yards per play.  They will hang a big number on the Chargers in this one, and the Chargers will be forced to keep up in a shootout.

The Patriots do have inflated numbers defensive due to playing the weakest schedule of opposing QB's.  In their last two games against good QB's, the Patriots won 28-24 over Baltimore for 52 combined points and the Ravens stalled after Lamar Jackson got hurt.  They lost a 35-31 shootout to Josh Allen and the Bills for 66 combined points.

Justin Herbert is one of the best QB's in the NFL and his offensive line will be much healthier heading into the playoffs after the Chargers sat their starters last week.  He is also very mobile so the OL injuries haven't been much of a problem.  The Patriots have a great run defense, but their pass defense is their weakness, particularly their ability to get after opposing QB's.  They rank 25th in the NFL in sacks despite playing so many bad QB's and having big leads in most of their games.

This is a very short total for a game involving the Patriots.  The OVER is 9-2 in Patriots last 11 games overall.  The Patriots and their opponents have combined for at least 45 points in nine of their last 10 games, including 46 or more in eight of their last nine.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -1.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are 3-1 SU in their last four games overall and are playing well now that Giannis is back and healthy.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NBA overall.

The same cannot be said for the Nuggets, who are one of the most injury-plagued teams in the NBA right now.  They are without Jokic, Johnson and Valanciunas with Murray and Jones both questionable tonight.

Those injuries finally caught up to them with a 110-87 home loss to the Hawks in their last game.  The Nuggets just returned home from a 7-game road trip and are running on fumes.  They will be playing their 5th game in 8 days here and they haven't had consecutive days off since December 16-17.  Bet the Bucks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Thunder OVER 233.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace.  They are coming off two of their worst offensive performances of the season scoring 94 points on the Timberwolves and 99 points on the Pacers.  This gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on a Miami OVER tonight.

The Heat had scored at least 115 points in each of their previous six games and averaged 128.8 points per game in those six games.  They will get back to their high-scoring ways today.

The Thunder get a lot of guys back tonight including Shai and Holmgren.  They will be as close to full strength as they have been in a while, and a potent offensive team when that's the case.  They have scored at least 124 points in five of their last eight games overall and will hang a big number on the Heat to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* 49ers/Eagles NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3.5

The Philadelphia Eagles rested their starters in Week 18 knowing that the No. 2 seed was still available.  Had they won, they would have been the No. 2 seed, but they lost to the Commanders.  It shows the confidence of this team and this coaching staff to know that as long as they are healthy going into the playoffs, they can beat anyone home or away.

The Eagles have gone 11-6 this season with their 'C+ game'.  They have had a bit of a Super Bowl hangover, but they have also just not opened the entire playbook on offense preferring to control games with their defense.  They have a lot more to give, and that playbook will be opened for the playoffs, where the Eagles have thrived in recent seasons.

Jalen Hurts is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home in the playoffs outscoring opponents by a whopping 21 points per game.  Hurts is 31-5 SU as a home favorite in his career, including 13-1 SU in December or later.  Hurts hasn't used his legs much all season to try and stay healthy, but he will be putting it all on the line in the playoffs, and his legs are the key to opening up this offense and maximizing it.

Brock Purdy is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in his career as an underdog, failing to cover the spread by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Purdy will have his hands full against this Philadelphia defense, which profiles similarly to the Seattle Seahawks.  The Eagles can get pressure without blitzing, which was their key to winning the Super Bowl last year, especially shutting down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the finale.

Well, the 49ers just played the Seahawks last week with the NFC West title and No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line.  They lost 13-3 as they couldn't get anything going offensively.  It was an even bigger blowout than that 13-3 final showed as the Seahawks missed two field goals and kicked 4 of them.  The Seahawks outgained the 49ers 361 to 173, or by 188 total yards.  They also had 23 first downs compared to 9 for the 49ers.  I think the Eagles will be similarly dominant.

The Eagles are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They will get LT Lane Johnson back for the playoffs, and he is key to their success.  Philadelphia is 122-61-1 SU when Lane plays, and 18-29 SU when he doesn't.  The entire 2-deep for this Philadelphia defense is healthy, and that's bad news for the 49ers.  Kyle Shanahan hasn't scored more than 15 points against a Vic Fangio defense in his career as a head coach or coordinator.  He just can't figure it out, and he won't figure it out this weekend.

The worst unit of the entire playoffs is this banged up San Francisco 49ers defense.  They have been terrible without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, and they have the worst pressure rate in the NFL.  Things have gone from bad to worse.  All three starting LB's were injured against the Seahawks.  Warner's backup Bethune (94 tackles) suffered a season-ending injury, while both Winters (101 tackles) and Gifford (35 tackles) are questionable after not practicing most of the week.  CB Green (59 tackles, 9 PD) is questionable as well.  What a mess this defense is, and the Eagles will be able to do whatever they want against them.

Injuries are a problem for the 49ers on offense as well.  LT Trent Williams and WR Ricky Pearsall both missed the Seattle game.  Pearsall is very important because he is on the one reliable target that can get open consistently, but he re-aggravated his PCL injury and is doubtful.  Williams is a true game-time decision with a hamstring injury, and he won't be able to do the things he normally would as far as blocking downfield even if he does play.  Purdy has some of the worst weapons in the NFL right now with Jennings and Robinson and his top two receivers.   They couldn't get separation against Seattle, and they won't be able to get separation against these star CB's of the Eagles in DeJean and Mitchell.  The Eagles rank 8th allowing 189.8 passing yards per game and 1st in completion percentage at 56.8%.

The Eagles played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this season after winning the Super Bowl.  They had to face the Chiefs, Rams, Packers Lions, Bears, Chargers and Bills.  They held the Bills scoreless through 3 quarters on the road in the final game they tried to win in Week 17.  Nobody shuts down Buffalo at home, and they did just that.  The 49ers only faced five playoff teams all season.  They had a very soft schedule down the stretch that had them overvalued going into that Week 18 game against Seattle, and continues to have them overvalued in Wild Card weekend.  This game has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

20* Bills/Jaguars AFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Jacksonville +1

The Bills are getting too much respect for their playoff experience and what they've done in the past.  This matchup favors the Jaguars everywhere but at QB, but you could make the argument that Trevor Lawrence had the better season.  And with Josh Allen battling a toe injury that required X-Rays at the end of his two most recent games, he's clearly nowhere near 100%.

Buffalo kicker Matt Prater will be limited and didn't practice until late in the week.  Jacksonville has one of the best kickers in the NFL in Cam Little, who made both attempts of 67-plus this season.  He made 30-of-34 (88.2%) of his FG attempts this season including 8-of-10 from 50-plus.  He's an absolute weapon for them.

The Jaguars are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall with a +153 point differential.  They rank 1st in scoring at 33.6 points per game and 1st in scoring defense at 14.5 points per game during this span.  They did beat some bad teams during this stretch, but they also crushed two playoff teams in the Broncos 34-20 on the road and the Chargers 35-6 at home.  They are quietly playing better than anyone in the NFL heading into the playoffs.

Josh Allen is 7-0 at home in his playoff career, but those seven wins came against 40-year old Philip Rivers, Snoop Huntley, Mac Jones, Mason Rudolph, Skyler Thompson, Bo Nix in his first career playoff start and Lamar Jackson, who is 3-5 in the playoffs.  The Bills are 0-5 on the road in the playoffs under Sean McDermott.  In fact, the Bills are 0-8 on the road in the playoffs over the last 33 years with their last road win coming in 1993.

Both teams have strong offenses, but the difference in this game is the Jaguars have the much superior defense.  That's especially the case against the run.  Teams that can shut down James Cook and make the Bills have to throw the ball have the most success against them.  The Jaguars are equipped to do just that.  They rank 1st in the NFL allowing 85.6 rushing yards per game.  The Bills rank 28th allowing 136.2 rushing yards per game.

Injuries are a big problem for the Bills defensively.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, DE Jordan Phillips, LB Terrell Bernard (65 tackles) and CB Maxwell Hairston (18 tackles, 2 INT).  The Jaguars are loaded with weapons since the trade for WR Jakobi Myers and the return to health of TE Brenton Strange.  Parker Washington has benefited the most with a breakout.  And Lawrence is playing at an MVP level under head coach Liam Coen.  He has accounted for 19 touchdowns and only 1 INT in his last six games.  He also has two previous playoff starts under his belt and is ready for this moment.

The Bills had three of their worst games on the road this season.  They lost 24-14 at Atlanta as 3.5-point favorites, lost 30-13 at Miami as 8-point favorites, lost 23-19 at Houston as 5-point favorites against Davis Mills, and escaped with a 23-20 win as 10.5-point favorites at Cleveland in their final road game of the season.  I'll gladly back the better, hotter, healthier home team as underdogs in this one.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bills/Jaguars OVER 50.5

The Jaguars are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall with a +153 point differential.  They rank 1st in scoring at 33.6 points per game during this span.  The Jaguars are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall going for 51 or more combined points in six of those 10 games.  This total of 50.5 is too short for a game involving the Jaguars right now.

Injuries are a big problem for the Bills defensively.  They are without DT Ed Oliver, DE Jordan Phillips, LB Terrell Bernard (65 tackles) and CB Maxwell Hairston (18 tackles, 2 INT).  The Jaguars are loaded with weapons since the trade for WR Jakobi Myers and the return to health of TE Brenton Strange.  Parker Washington has benefited the most with a breakout.  And Lawrence is playing at an MVP level under head coach Liam Coen.  He has accounted for 19 touchdowns and only 1 INT in his last six games.

The Jaguars will hang a big number on this soft, beat up Bills defense, and the Bills will have to go to a more pass-happy approach to try and keep up.  That will greatly benefit the OVER.  The Bills are potent themselves offensively ranking 5th in scoring offense at 28.3 points per game, 4th in total offense at 376.3 yards per game and 4th at 6.1 yards per play.  They also know they won't be able to run it on Jacksonville's defense, which ranks 1st in the NFL against the run.  So they will be smart about it and keep the ball in Josh Allen's hands for four quarters.  This has shootout written all over it, especially with temps in the 60's and winds not being much of a factor.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Packers/Bears NFC Wild Card ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5

The Bears and Packers are both dead nuts OVER teams in their current form.  Both are very healthy on offense with two of the best offenses in the NFL when that's the case.  Both are very banged up on defense, and these are two of the worst defenses in the playoffs in their current state.

The books have adjusted this total down too much due to the weather report from an opener of 47.5 all the way down to 44.5 as of this writing.  The value is there to back the OVER, and I don't think the weather is going to be as bad as originally reported.  Temps will be in the 30's with 10-15 MPH sustained winds, and the wind direction is from goalpost to goalpost so it will actually favor offenses when they are downwind.  I expect both offenses to take advantage of that and be more pass-happy when they are with the wind.

The Packers felt they could trade away run-stuffer Frank Clark in the trade for Micah Parsons because they had an elite run-stuffer in DT Devonte Wyatt already.  But Wyatt is on season-ending IR and won't be back for the playoffs, and their run defense has been dreadful without him.  Their defense really took a turn for the worse when Micah Parsons tore his ACL in a Week 15 loss at Denver.

The Packers have allowed an average of 28.3 points per game and 391.5 yards per game in their last four games since losing Parsons.  Their run D was exposed when they allowed 307 rushing yards to the Ravens in Week 17.  The Bears want to run the football, and they will be able to against this patch work Green Bay defense.  NB Javon Bullard, LB Nick Niemann and DT Warren Brinson are all questionable, and they are thin in the secondary with CB's Hobbs, Melton and Hadden all on IR.

Chicago's defense has been torched the last three weeks for 384 yards against the Packers, 496 yards against the 49ers and 433 yards to the Lions.  They can't stop the run, either, allowing 192 rushing yards to the Packers and 200 to the 49ers.  They rank 29th in total defense at 361.8 yards per game, 29th at 6.2 yards per play and 29th at 5.0 yards per carry allowed.  They will be missing NB CJ Gardner-Johnson (66 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT), CB Kyler Gordon and a pair of backups in LB Ogbongbemiga and DE Shoyinka.

The Packers have an elite offense when they are as healthy as they are right now.  Jordan Love is back from a concussion and has lit up opposing defenses in the playoffs in the past.  Love has a 23-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He has his top 4 weapons at receiver all healthy in Watson, Doubs, Reed and Golden.  RB Jacobs says he is as healthy as he has been all season and is in line for a monster game against this poor Chicago run D.

The Bears have been potent offensively all season ranking 9th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game, 6th in total offense at 369.5 yards per game and 9th at 5.8 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in rushing at 144.5 yards per game, and the two-headed monster of Swift and Monangai are in line for big games against this soft Green Bay Run D.  And that's why I'm not concerned about any weather because both teams will be able to move the ball on the ground at will.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Bears on offense this week with WR Rome Odunze (44 receptions, 661 yards, 6 TD) making his return from a 5-game absence.  The Bears have been without Luther Burden for a few games down the stretch, but he's healthy and ready to go now too.  The Bears are fully healthy on offense for the first time in a long time, and dangerous when that's the case.

The first meeting this season saw the Packers win 28-21 for 49 combined points in Green Bay.  Both teams were a lot healthier on defense than they are now for that first meeting.  Both teams were hampered with injuries in the 2nd meeting, a 22-16 (OT) win by the Bears for just 38 combined points.  Jordan Love went out early for the Packers and so did Josh Jacobs.  That left Malik Willis and a handicapped Green Bay offense.

Without Love, the Packers really struggled in the red zone going 0-for-5 scoring touchdowns setting for 3 field goals and a couple turnovers.  The Bears didn't have Odunze OR Burden for that game and were extremely handicapped as a result without their usual weapons.  They were held to 6 points until late in the game as a result before exploding at the end.  Despite the injuries, both teams moved the ball fine as the Packers had 384 total yards and the Bears had 400 total yards.  So it was actually a very misleading final that should have been higher-scoring.

Given the health of both offenses compared to the health and poor play of both defenses, this total of 44.5 is too short.  I also like the fact that these are two offensive-minded head coaches in Johnson and LaFleur, and they will empty out the playbook with this being the playoffs.  Whichever team is trailing will always be able to make a comeback and push the tempo if necessary.  And both offenses should be very efficient in the red zone being able to run the ball on these soft run D's.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Heat -7.5

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They had their game against the Bulls postponed on Thursday due to condensation from a leak in the roof.  So they have had the last three days off and are champing at the bit to get back on the court.

The Heat are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only two losses coming to the Timberwolves, who are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  It was clearly a bad matchup for them.  They beat the Hawks by 15 and the Pistons by 6 in two road games during this stretch, while also rushing the Pacers by 26, the Nuggets by 24 and the Pelicans by 19 at home.

The Heat are as healthy as they have been all season as they have everyone available except perhaps Jaime Jaquez, who is listed as questionable.  Injuries are a big reason the Pacers are just 7-31 this season.  They are without Mathurin (17.8 PPG), Toppin (14.0 PPG) and Jackson (7.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG), plus Nembhard (17.2 PPG) is questionable.

This is a terrible spot for the Pacers.  They ended their 13-game losing streak with a 114-112 win at Charlotte last time out.  They took advantage of a tired Hornets team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Now that they finally ended that losing streak, they will relax.  The Pacers are also a tired team not having consecutive days off since before Christmas.  The Heat will run them out of the gym similar to their 142-116 win over the Pacers on December 27th in their most recent meeting.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* Big West Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Northridge/Fullerton OVER 174

Cal State Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Titans rank 7th in adjusted tempo, 5th in average length of offensive possession and 242nd in adjusted defense.  They are 9-6 OVER in all games this season and haven't gone to OT once.

Cal-State Northridge will gladly run with them.  The Matadors rank 10th in adjusted tempo, 19th in average length of offensive possession and 234th in adjusted defense.  They are 10-5 OVER in all games this season despite not once going to OT.  They are also 6-1 OVER in road games.  The books have failed to set this total high enough given how many possession will be in this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CAA PLAY OF THE DAY on Campbell/Elon OVER 160

Elon is 10-4 OVER in all games this season including 6-1 OVER in home games.  What makes the Phoenix such an OVER team is ranking 77th in adjusted offense but just 294th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 160 or more combined points with their opponents in 11 of their 16 games this season.

Campbell is the perfect OVER partner for Elon.  The Camels rank 51st in adjusted tempo, 157th in adjusted offense but just 249th in adjusted defense.  So these are two teams that are much better on offense than they are on defense.  The Camels are 9-6 OVER in all games this season finishing with 158 or more combined points in 11 of their 17 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Auburn ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 169.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off today when Arkansas visits Auburn.  This game has the makings of one of the biggest shootouts of the day, and it's a night game on National TV on ESPN so both teams will be extra amped for it.

Auburn is 11-4 OVER in all games this season.  The Tigers have an elite offense ranking 13th in adjusted offense but one of the worst defenses in the SEC ranking 106th in adjusted defense.  They have gone for 170 or more combined points in four of their last five games overall, including 204 with Georgia and 178 with Texas A&M in their last two.

Arkansas is 6-0 OVER in its last six games overall going for 177 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The Razorbacks rank 25th in adjusted tempo, 21st in average length of offensive possession and 12th in adjusted offense.  Calipari has the Razorbacks playing efficient offense at a break-neck pace this season.  

The Razorbacks have scored 85 or more points in six consecutive games, including against some very good defensive teams in Texas Tech, Houston, Tennessee and Ole Miss.  They are scoring on everyone, and they will hang a big number on this poor Auburn defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big West PLAY OF THE DAY on UC-Davis/Cal Poly OVER 167.5

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in adjusted tempo, 8th in average length of offensive possession and 223rd in adjusted defense.  The Mustangs are 9-6 OVER in all games thsi season and coming off a 95-90 loss to Northridge for 185 combined points.

UC Davis is a dead nuts OVER team as well going 9-4 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 110th in adjusted tempo, 65th in average length of offensive possession, 133rd in adjusted offense and 212th in adjusted defense.  The Aggies are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 160 or more combined points in six of their last seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Rams/Panthers NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Los Angeles -10

The Los Angeles Rams are the most complete team in the NFL.  They have the best offense in the NFL ranking 1st in scoring offense at 30.5 points per game, 1st in total offense at 394.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play.  The Rams rank 10th in scoring defense at 20.4 points per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play allowed.

The Carolina Panthers are the worst team in the playoffs, getting in with an 8-9 record by winning the tiebreaker in a 3-way tie with the Bucs and Falcons for 1st place in the NFC South.  The Panthers rank 27th in scoring offense at 18.3 points per game, 27th in total offense at 295.6 yards per game and 28th at 5.1 yards per play.  They have a mediocre defense at best ranking 19th allowing 5.6 yards per play.

I like the fact that the Rams went for it in Week 18 knowing that they needed a win to get to play the Panthers in the first round.  That's a big step down in class from the Eagles, who they would have had to face had they lost in Week 18.  They are in playoff mode, and now reinforcements are on the way in time for the playoffs.

WR Davante Adams (60 receptions, 789 yards, 14 TD) led the NFL in TD receptions despite missing the last three games.  The Rams were extra cautious with him and he was pissed off to not be playing down the stretch.  He will be extra motivated now in his return, and he will make a big impact on this offense.  Defensively, the Rams get back CB Quentin Lake (61 tackles, 1 INT, 10 PD) after he missed six games this season.  They are near full strength heading into the playoffs and one of the healthiest teams in the league.

The Panthers have a -69 point differential on the season.  That is the 3rd-worst mark in NFL history for a team that won its division.  They were blown out on the regular losing by 16 to the Jaguars, by 29 to the Patriots, by 31 to the Bills, by 10 to the Saints, by 11 to the 49ers and by 17 to the Seahawks.  Six of their nine losses came by double-digits.

The Rams have the 2nd-best point differential (+172) in the NFL trailing only the Seahawks.  They went 12-5 this season and all five losses were coin flip games.  Seven of their 12 wins came by 14 points or more, so they blew teams out on the regular.  And this game has blowout written all over it Saturday.

Yes, the Panthers upset the Rams 31-28 as 9.5-point home dogs on November 30th earlier this season.  But that was one of the coin flip games the Rams lost, and it was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  The Rams were -3 in turnovers and all three were killers.  They had a tipped pass intercepted in the Carolina end zone that took 7 points off the board.  Their very next drive, Stafford threw a Pick 6.  And when they were in FG range driving for the game-winning score, Stafford fumbled to end the game.  That was basically a 17-point swing at minimum in the Panthers' favor on those three turnovers.  That's not going to happen again.

What is repeatable is the Rams moving the ball up and down the field on this Panthers defense both on the ground and through the air.  The Rams rushed for 152 yards and 7.2 per carry on 21 attempts against the Panthers in that first meeting.  They also threw for 227 yards nd 7.6 per attempt.  They held the Panthers to 4.1 yards per attempt on the ground.  Carolina also went 3-for-3 on 4th down conversions in that first meeting, two of which resulted in 30-plus yard TD's. Literally everything went right for the Panthers, and they were still life and death with the Rams.  The cream will rise to the top in the rematch.

The Rams were also fat and happy going into that game against the Panthers in the regular season riding a 6-game winning streak with the last three coming against playoff contenders in the 49ers, Seahawks and Bucs.  I think they were flat in that game.  They won't be flat in the rematch, in fact they will be max motivated for revenge and with this being the playoffs.  Teams to lose to a non-divisional opponent in Week 12 or later and to face them again in the playoffs are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS covering the spread by an average of 7.2 points per game.

Sean McVay is 34-10 SU & 26-18 ATS as a road favorite with the Rams, including 27-6 SU and 19-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or more, and 19-2 SU & 12-9 ATS as a road favorite of more than 4 points.  McVay is also 18-11-2 ATS in road games in the Eastern time zone.  The Rams will mount a big lead early and be able to sustain it with their ground attack.  Bryce Young won't be able to make the plays to keep it close.  QB's making their first career playoff start like Young against a QB who has playoff experience are 20-39-1 ATS since 2002.  Bet the Rams Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma State +18.5

You're paying a tax to back the Iowa State Cyclones now after opening 15-0 SU & 9-6 ATS this season.  That's especially the case after opening Big 12 play with a pair of wins and covers over West Virginia and Baylor, two of the worst teams in the conference.

Oklahoma State will offer some resistance here.  The Cowboys are coming off a 87-76 home win over UCF as 2-point favorites on Tuesday.  They have had the last three days off, while the Cyclones have only had the last two days off since winning at Baylor on Wednesday, plus the travel in between.

Few teams have dominated Iowa State like Oklahoma State has.  In fact, the Cowboys are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cyclones with one of those losses coming in OT.  Asking the Cyclones to beat them by 19-plus points to beat us is asking too much today.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Florida/Tulsa OVER 164.5

Tulsa is 9-4 OVER in all games this season including 4-1 OVER at home.  The Golden Hurricane rank 41st in adjusted offense but just 143rd in adjusted defense.  They are an elite shooting team ranking 20th in effective FG percentage (57.8%) and 5th in 3-point percentage (41.2%).

South Florida is 8-6 OVER in all games this season including 3-1 OVER in road games.  What makes the Bulls an OVER team is ranking 18th in adjusted tempo and 17th in average length of offensive possession.  They are also a solid offensive team ranking 78th in adjusted offense.

What's keeping this total lower than it should be is both teams coming off games against teams that play extremely slow.  They both played North Texas in their last game and went under the total.  North Texas ranks 338th in adjusted tempo, 285th in adjusted offense and 34th in adjusted defense.  This game will play out much differently.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big East Saturday Total DOMINATOR on St. John's/Creighton UNDER 156.5

Creighton ranks 231st in adjusted tempo and 46th in adjusted defense.  The Bluejays are much more of a defensive team this season with one of the worst offenses of the Greg McDermott era.  This is a very high total for a game involving the Bluejays, who are 11-5 UNDER in all games this season with 155 or fewer combined points in 11 of those 16 games.

St. John's is 10-5 UNDER in all games this season.  The Red Storm rank 21st in adjusted defense and are once again a dominant defensive team under Rick Pitino.  They are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall finishing with 155 or fewer combined points in seven of those nine games.

St. John's and Creighton have combined for 152 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 156.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Denver/South Dakota OVER 172.5

Denver is a perfect 15-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last 12 lined games.  This total of 172.5 is too short for a game involving the Pioneers right now.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 80th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 362nd in adjusted defense.  They are the 4th-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

South Dakota is the perfect OVER partner for Denver.  The Coyotes rank 43rd in adjusted tempo this season and 341st in adjusted defense.  They play fast and they play no defense.

South Dakota is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall going for 185 combined points with St. Thomas, 182 with Kansas State, 182 with Prairie View, 185 with Wyoming and 176 with Northern Colorado.  This total of 172.5 is also short in a game involving the Coyotes right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Timberwolves/Cavs NBA Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 239.5

NBA players aren't used to playing this early in the day.  This game will tip at 1:10 EST this afternoon.  Players will be sleep walking through the start of it, and it will take them a while to get going.  I love betting UNDERS in these early games as a result.

I also love betting UNDERS in quick rematches, which we have here.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Minnesota beat Cleveland 131-122 on Thursday in Minnesota, and now they will play each other again in Cleveland just two days later here Saturday.

Cleveland shot 53% as a team on Thursday and will not shoot that well again.  Minnesota shot 57% as a team and 20-of-38 (53%) from 3-point range, and that certainly won't happen again.  Coaches will make the necessary adjustments and the defenses will win out in the rematch.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston -3

Houston is battle-tested having faced the 76th-ranked schedule in the country with wins over the likes of Auburn, Notre Dame, Arkansas and Texas Tech.  The Cougars rank 27th in adjusted offense and 6th in adjusted defense and are once again one of the best teams in the country at 14-1 this season with more experience than they are even accustomed to.  Going into Baylor and coming out with a win today is no big deal to them.

Baylor has struggled time and time again when stepping up in class with four losses already to St. John's, Memphis, TCU and Iowa State.  They weren't very competitive in any of the four games with all four coming by 6 points or more, including a 10-point home loss to Iowa State on Wednesday.

What kills the Bears is they are a terrible defensive team ranking 84th in adjusted defense.  Houston is 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in its last three meetings with Baylor.  This is a short number to be laying for by far the superior team in this matchup today folks.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on DePaul +19.5

This is a terrible spot for the UConn Huskies.  They are coming off a 103-98 (OT) road win at Providence on Wednesday.  They have had just two days to recover, and they will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days here as well.  I expect them to be flat as a pancake hosting DePaul today.

The Blue Demons are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS this season, and I really like what they have done lately.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with consecutive home wins over Xavier and Georgetown, as well as a 5-point road loss at Villanova as 12.5-point dogs in their last three games.

The lone non-cover during this 7-game stretch came in a 72-54 home loss to UConn on December 21st as 12.5-point dogs.  Now they get their shot at quick revenge here just three weeks later.  The Huskies won't be motivated at all to beat this team by margin again.  Bet DePaul Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Indiana Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -3.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are overvalued now after a 15-0 start to the season.  They have played a home-heavy schedule and have played just two true road games all season.  This will be their toughest road game yet.

Indiana is 10-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 25.9 points per game.  That includes Big Ten wins over Washington by 10 and Penn State by 41.  It will be a very hostile atmosphere today with ranked, unbeaten Nebraska coming to town and there are few better home-court advantages than Assembly Hall when it's a big game.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Rockets/Blazers UNDER 221.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts UNDER team without star C Alperen Sengun (21.8 PPG, 6.5 APG).  The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current form without Holiday (16.7 PPG, 8.3 APG), Grant (20.0 PPG) and Murray (6.1 PPG).

The Rockets are 4-0 UNDER in their last four games overall going for 216 combined points with the Nets, 214 with the Mavericks, 197 with the Suns and 205 with the Blazers.  The Blazers are 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games overall going for 22 or fewer combined points in seven of those 11 games.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be a rematch from Wednesday when the Blazers beat the Rockets 103-102 at home for 205 combined points.  That total was set at 221, and this total in the rematch is set at 221.5.  Oddsmakers have failed to adjust it down, and we'll take advantage.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Phoenix Suns ML +108

The Phoenix Suns are as healthy as they've been all season and proving they are a legit contender in the West when that's the case.  They have gone 7-2 SU in their last nine games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall as one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now.

After upsetting the Thunder 108-105 as 11.5-point home dogs, the Suns came back the very next night and lost on a buzzer-beater at Houston by 3 as 8.5-point dogs.  In what was supposed to be a flat spot for them, they crushed the Grizzlies 117-98 as 5.5-point favorites last time out.  This team is locked in night in and night out.

They will certainly be locked in hosting the New York Knicks tonight.  This is a tired, struggling, banged up Knicks team that should not be favored on the road tonight.  The Knicks are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, and 2-9-1 ATS in their 12 games since winning the NBA Cup.  They lost by 31 at Detroit, by 11 at home to Philadelphia as 4.5-point favorites, and by 12 at home to the Hawks as 6.5-point favorites in three of their last four games.

The Knicks are without Josh Hart right now and his importance to this team cannot be overstated based on recent results without him.  The Knicks have one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA as they are 16-4 SU at home, but just 7-9 SU on the road.  The Suns are 12-5 SU at home.  The Knicks will be playing their 5th game in 8 days and haven't had consecutive days off since the NBA Cup in mid-December.  They are running on fumes right now.  Bet the Suns Friday.