15* Michigan State/Michigan BTN ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +5

The Michigan State Spartans went through the gauntlet to open the season playing for six consecutive weeks that concluded with two games against two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and Oregon.  It's safe to say they needed their bye week to get healthy and regroup two weeks ago.

The Spartans came out of their bye and looked like a new team in a 32-20 upset home win over Iowa as 6.5-point underdogs.  I backed the Spartans in that game, and it was as easy as it gets.  The only reason it stayed close was because the Spartans settled for seven field goals, making six of them.  They outgained Iowa 468 to 283 for the game, or by 185 total yards.  Gaining 468 yards on that Iowa defense is no small feat.

A big reason I was on the Spartans in that game was because they are elite against the run, and Iowa can only run the football.  The same can be said for Michigan, which relies heavily on the run like Iowa to move the football.  The Wolverines average 180 rushing yards per game compared to just 128 passing yards per game.  Well, Michigan State allows just 3.8 yards per carry this season, which is impressive when you consider they have had to play Ohio State, Oregon and Iowa in consecutive weeks.

Michigan is 4-3 SU but 1-6 ATS this season and continues to get too much respect from the books on a weekly basis.  The Wolverines were 5-point favorites at Illinois last week, and they got upset 21-7 by the Fighting Illini.  They weren't impressive in any of their four wins, and two game by exactly 3 points at home over USC and Minnesota.  

The other two were also at home against Arkansas State by 10 and Fresno State by 20, and that Fresno State game was a lot closer than the final score.  The three losses all came by double-digits by 14 at Illinois, by 10 at Washington and by 19 at home to Texas.  So the Wolverines have actually been outscored on the season by 7 points total.  This team just isn't very good, and they should not be laying more than a FG at home to the Spartans.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -3.5

This is a brutal spot for the Charlotte Hornets.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and in their 3rd different city.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank for the Miami Heat tonight.

The Hornets pulled the 110-105 upset win in their opener on Wednesday before falling short 125-120 in Atlanta last night.  So they used max effort in both games, and they lost one of their best players in Brandon Miller to injury, and he remains out tonight.

The Heat will be highly motivated for a victory after losing 116-97 at home to the Orlando Magic in the opener.  They have had the last two days off to practice and get things right heading into this one.  Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined for 2-of-13 shooting and 12 points in that loss to the Magic, and they will be much sharper tonight against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Hornets.

The Heat owned the Hornets last season winning all four meetings.  They should make easy work of this tired Charlotte team with a huge rest advantage tonight.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* Texas Tech/TCU FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 66

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Saturday in Big 12 play when the Texas Tech Red Raiders visit the TCU Horned Frogs.  Both offenses have embraced playing fast as TCU ranks 15th in tempo while Texas Tech ranks 24th.  There will be more possessions in this game and more points as a result.

Texas Tech is coming off a 59-35 loss to Baylor in which conditions weren't great for scoring as it was very windy with a total of just 56.5.  They allowed a whopping 629 total yards to the Bears.  Three games ago they were in a 44-41 shootout with Cincinnati that saw 85 combined points.

I think TCU's result last week against Utah is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Utes have no offense right now with all their injuries, and they play very slow.  They beat Utah 13-7 on the road last week.  This came a week after a game against a similar Houston team with no offense that stays under the total.

When TCU has faced another offense on Texas Tech's level, they have been in high-scoring games.  Their previous three games all went OVER the total with a 38-27 win at Kansas and 65 combined points, a 66-42 loss at SMU and 108 combined points and a 35-34 loss to UCF and 69 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Baylor Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 64.5

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team that runs a fast-paced offense and plays zero defense.  The Cowboys rank 9th in the country in tempo with 22.7 seconds between snaps on offense.  They rank 130th in total defense allowing a whopping 490.6 yards per game.

In their last three games the Cowboys allowed 42 points to Kansas State, 38 points to West Virginia and 38 to BYU.  Now they are facing a revived Baylor offense that just put up 59 points and 629 total yard on Texas Tech last week.

The OVER is 4-0 in Baylor's last four games overall combining for 69 points with Colorado, 62 with BYU, 64 with Iowa State and 94 with Texas Tech.  They allowed 35 to Texas Tech, 43 to Iowa State, 34 to BYU and 38 to Colorado, so they have a very poor defense like Oklahoma State.  

Baylor also plays fast ranking 11th in tempo at 23.0 seconds between snaps, so there will be a ton of possessions in this game with the Cowboys 9th in tempo.  Neither team can be expected to get many stops in this one.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, 5 MPH winds and zero precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on BYU/UCF OVER 55

UCF is a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 5-2 in all UCF games this season with 59 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  The Knights rank 23rd in tempo averaging 24.2 seconds between snaps.  There are extra possessions in UCF games, and they will really try to ramp up the pace playing at home Saturday.

BYU has also been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Cougars are 5-2 OVER in all games.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three Big 12 games combining for 73 points with Oklahoma State, 60 points with Arizona and 62 points with Baylor.  It should be more of the same here against UCF.

BYU ranks 23rd in the country in scoring at 34.9 points per game.  UCF ranks 48th at 31.3 points per game, but they are better than that because they are 14th in total offense at 465.6 yards per game and 23rd at 6.6 yards per play.  You can run on this BYU defense, and the Knights will have success just like they did against Iowa State last week.

The Knights racked up 35 points and 354 rushing yards on Iowa State.  I like dual-threat QB Jacurri Brown, who has rushed for 176 yards on 25 carries while averaging 7.0 per carry in two starts this season.  BYU just allowed 269 rushing yards to Oklahoma State last week, and that's a Cowboys team that could not run the football at all against anyone previously.

The Cougars also have a dual-threat QB in Jake Retzlaff, who has a 16-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 265 yards and two scores while averaging 5.4 per carry.  Both defensive coordinators will have their hands full this week.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation.  This total should be set in the 60's.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Northwestern +14

The Iowa Hawkeyes have a terrible offense once again this season and have no business laying two touchdowns to the Northwestern Wildcats.  The Hawkeyes are a one-dimensional running team that averages just 136.9 passing yards per game.

A big reason I faded Iowa last week with Michigan State is because they were very good against the run, and they beat Iowa 32-20 and shut down their running game.  Well, Northwestern has a similar profile.  The Wildcats rank 21st in the country against the run allowing 103.4 rushing yards per game and 19th at 3.2 yards per carry allowed.  They will force Iowa to try and beat them through the air, and I don't think they're capable.

Northwestern just upset Maryland 37-10 as 10.5-point road underdogs in their last road game.  They have been a great bet a road underdog for years.  They have no home-field advantage so they are consistently overvalued at home, but on the road it's the complete opposite.

This has been a closely-contested series with six of the last eight meetings decided by 7 points or less.  The Hawkeyes allowed 468 total yards to a very suspect Michigan State offense last week.  I think the Wildcats will do enough offensively to stay within this inflated number while shutting down Iowa's offense as well.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* Illinois/Oregon CBS ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +21.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS this season.  This despite facing four ranked teams at the time they played them.  They are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football and should not be catching more than 3 touchdowns to Oregon this week.

Illinois upset Kansas at home, upset Nebraska on the road and upset Michigan at home.  The Fighting Illini were tied 7-7 with Penn State on the road midway through the 3rd quarter before eventually losing 21-7 as 19-point underdogs in their lone defeat.  They won't be intimated by Oregon, and they won't go down easily.

One of the best-kept secrets in the country is the play of Illinois QB Luke Altmyer, who has an absurd 15-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season.  Bret Bielema has clearly gotten the message to him that if he doesn't turn the ball over, they can beat anyone.  He also has two stud receivers in Bryant and Franklin who have combined for 61 receptions, 856 yards and 8 TD this season.

While the offense doesn't beat itself, the defense is once again the strength as the Fighting Illini rank 26th in the country in scoring defense at 18.1 points per game allowed despite the tough schedule.  I think they'll be able to hold Oregon in check on Saturday to stay within this inflated number.

Oregon has been held to 37 or fewer points in six of their seven games this season, and they only have two wins by more than 21 points, which came against Purdue and Oregon State.  That 35-0 win over Purdue last week was very misleading as they only outgained the Boilermakers by 121 yards.  The Boilermakers simply could not do anything once they got into plus-territory.

Oregon relies heavily on Dillon Gabriel and the short passing game to move the football as they only averaging 158 rushing yards per game this season.  Well, the forecast is going to make it very difficult to throw the ball with a 90% chance of rain the entire game in Eugene Saturday afternoon.  The forecast is going to keep scoring suppressed and it's going to favor the underdog catching 3 touchdowns.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Illinois/Oregon UNDER 55

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 55 ticket between the Illinois Fighting Illini and Oregon Ducks.  There is a 90% chance of rain during the entire game in Eugene.  Both teams are going to run the football more than normal, which will keep the clock moving and limit explosive plays.

Illinis is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is.  The Fighting Illini rank 87th in tempo averaging 27.2 seconds in between snaps.  The UNDER is 5-2 in all Illinois games this season with 45 or fewer combined points in five of those seven games.  They rank 26th in the country in scoring defense allowing just 18.1 points per game.

Oregon is also playing slower than average ranking 80th in the country in tempo at 27 seconds in between snaps.  The Ducks only average 158 rushing yards per game compared to 300 passing, so their passing game will be limited by this rain.  They are only averaging 4.5 yards per rush as well so that has been a weakness for their offense.

This Oregon defense has been more impressive than the offense.  Dan Lanning is a defensive guy so it makes sense.  The Ducks rank 15th in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game allowed and 17th in total defense at 298 yards per game allowed.  Illinois ranks 90th in total offense at 366 yards per game.  

The UNDER is 3-1 in Oregon's last four games overall with 35, 41 and 47 combined points on the three unders against Purdue, Michigan State and UCLA.  The only game that went over was against Ohio State and their elite offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple/East Carolina OVER 48.5

The East Carolina Pirates are an absolute mess right now especially defensively.  Their performances in their last two games are most concerning.  They lost 55-24 at Charlotte two games ago while allowing 517 total yards including 311 rushing.  Last week they trailed Army 38-7 in the 4th quarter before scoring 21 points in garbage time to make it a misleading final.  They allowed another 295 rushing yards to Army. I question how much this ECU defense has left in the tank after giving up over 600 rushing yards and 100 points in their last two games.

The Temple Owls have been a much better team with QB Evan Simon healthy and out there, which he was last week against Tulsa.  Simon is completing 65% of his passes for 977 yards with a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio in his four starts this season.  I expect Simon to light up this East Carolina defense this week.

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team because they have such a soft defense, plus they play at the 2nd-fastest tempo offensively in the country at 21.0 seconds in between snaps.  They should also have plenty of success offensively against a Temple defense that ranks 115th in scoring allowing 32.4 points per game.

This total should be set in the 50's at a minimum, and we are getting a discount here on OVER 48.5.  The last time these two teams faced off we saw 95 combined points and over 1,100 total yards combined between them.  East Carolina would be 4-0 OVER in their last four games with a total this low combining for 73 points with Army, 79 with Charlotte, 50 with UTSA and 59 with Liberty.  Temple and its opponents have combined for at least 48 points six of their seven games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Tulane/North Texas OVER 65.5

North Texas is a dead nuts OVER team going 6-1 OVER in all games this season with 68 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  They even combined for 61 with a terrible Wyoming offense that plays slow.

North Texas ranks 5th in the country in tempo at 21.9 seconds in between snaps on offense.  The Mean Green rank 3rd in total offense at 528.0 yards per game and 10th at 7.1 yards per play as well as 9th in scoring at 41.3 points per game.  They are very leaky defensively ranking 124th in scoring at 35.7 points per game and 121st at 445.7 yards per game allowed.

Tulane will score at will on this North Texas defense.  The Green Wave have gone for 41, 45 and 71 points in three of their last four games.  They will hang a big number on the Mean Green, but I think this North Texas offense will keep coming as they always do every week.  They kept coming last week in a 52-44 loss at Memphis in which they racked up 653 total yards on what was previously a very good Tigers defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +18.5

The Charlotte 49ers had a bye two weeks ago and are as healthy as they have been all season.  They were coming off upset wins over Rice 21-20 as 4.5-point dogs and ECU 55-24 as 9.5-point dogs going into their bye week.  They came out of their bye as 16.5-point dogs to Navy and lost 51-17.

But that misleading 51-17 final last week is providing us with some line value to back Charlotte this week as 18.5-point dogs at Memphis.  Charlotte was -5 in turnovers against Navy and gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with an 84-yard INT return TD and a 61-yard INT return TD.  The 49ers actually outgained the Midshipmen 363 to 288 for the game, or by 75 total yards.  Navy had no business scoring 51 points with just 288 total yards.

Navy is a common opponent of these two teams as Memphis suffered its only loss to Navy by a final of 56-44.  There was nothing fluky about that win as the Midshipmen racked up 566 total yards on Memphis.  I just have not been impressed with this Memphis team at all this season, especially in their last four games.

Following that upset loss to Navy, Memphis only beat Middle Tennessee 24-7 as 27-point home favorites.  That's a MTSU team that has been getting blasted by everyone else.  They only won 21-3 on a neutral in Orlando against USF, which was without its starting QB and dealing with the aftermath of the hurricane.  And last week Memphis beat North Texas 52-44 as 11-point home favorites.

The Tigers were fortunate to win that game against North Texas when you consider they were outgained by 127 yards while allowing a whopping 653 total yards to the Mean Green.  I question how much their defense has left in the tank this week.  I expect this Charlotte offense to have one of their best games of the season to keep them in this game for four quarters.  

The 49ers want revenge from a 44-38 (OT) loss to Memphis as 10-point underdogs last season, adding to their motivation.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -2

The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year.  The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs.

Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch.  They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams.  They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.  I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season.

I came up short backing the Rockets in their opener as they were upset by the Charlotte Hornets.  But now this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Rockets as only 2-point home favorites over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Rockets shot 38-of-103 (37%) including 13-of-43 (30%) from 3-point range against the Hornets.  They are due some positive shooting regression.

The Grizzlies are coming off a 126-124 road win over one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Utah Jazz. Memphis is missing four key players right now in Jaren Jackson Jr., Luke Kennard, Vince Williams and GG Jackson.  I don't think they have the horses to take down the Rockets on the road, especially without Jackson Jr.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Rockets OVER 221.5

The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year.  The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs.

Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch.  They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams.  They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.  I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season both ATS and on OVER bets.

I came up short backing the Rockets in their opener as they were upset by the Charlotte Hornets.  But the Rockets shot 38-of-103 (37%) including 13-of-43 (30%) from 3-point range against the Hornets.  They are due some positive shooting regression, and this total is lower than it should be because of that poor shooting performance in their opener.

The Grizzlies are coming off a 126-124 road win over one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Utah Jazz with 250 combined points. Memphis is missing its best defender in Jaren Jackson Jr., and the Grizzlies are going to be an OVER team until he returns to lead their defense.  They have plenty of offense without him and are an OVER team as long as Ja Morant is on the floor and running this offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9.5

I think the Chicago Bulls are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  Billy Donovan has embraced playing faster and shooting more 3's in the preseason, and getting rid of DeMar DeRozan will allow them to play more team basketball now.

Coby White, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Patrick Williams and Ayo Dosunmu are all back and healthy this season.  They traded for Josh Giddey of the Thunder and added Jalen Smith from the Pacers.

This is a good time to 'buy low' on the Bulls after losing 123-111 at New Orleans as 5-point underdogs in their opener.  The Bulls shot just 10-of-34 (29%) from 3-point range and are due some positive shooting regression.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks, who took advantage of the 76ers being without their two best players in Embiid and George and won 124-109 as 4-point favorites in their opener.  The Bucks shot 54% as a team and are due some negative shooting regression, plus they take a big step up in class here against the Bulls.

The Bulls went 3-1 ATS in their four meetings with the Bucks last season with three of the four decided by 9 points or less, including two that went to OT.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

20* Yankees/Dodgers Game 1 No-Brainer on OVER 8

Both the Yankees and Dodgers are dead nuts OVER teams with arguably the best lineups in baseball but also two suspect rotations.  We have seen that play out in the postseason.

The Yankees score at least 5 runs in all five of their games against the Cleveland Guardians.  The Dodgers scored at least 6 runs in five of their six games against the Mets last series.  Both offenses are hot, and that will carry over into Game 1 of this series tonight.

The Dodgers will start Jack Flaherty, who allowed 8 earned runs in 3 innings to the Mets in his last start.  He has allowed at least 3 earned runs in five of his last six starts and a total of 22 earned runs in 29 1/3 innings in those six starts for a 6.75 ERA during this stretch.

Gerrit Cole hasn't been exactly dominant in the postseason allowing 6 earned runs and 25 base runners in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts.  Cole has allowed 9 earned runs and 23 base runners in 17 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 Friday.

20* Louisville/Boston College ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Boston College +7

This is a terrible spot for the Louisville Cardinals.  They will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and are on a short week with travel to boot.  Each of their last five games went down to the wire so they have had to put in max effort.  I just don't think they'll have much left in the tank Friday night.

The Cardinals have lost three of their last four games and are coming off another gut-wrenching 52-45 home loss to Miami last week that pretty much eliminated them from ACC title contention.  I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and the Cardinals have no business laying 7 points on the road here given the spot.  Not to mention it's a sandwich spot coming off the Miami game and with another huge game at Clemson on deck next week.

Boston College will be playing just its 2nd game in 20 days.  The Eagles are rested and ready to go.  They are also back home where they are 3-0 this season with solid wins over Michigan State and Western Kentucky, and keep in mind they didn't have starting QB Thomas Castellanos for the WKU game.

Castellanos is one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  He is completing 66.7% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 161 yards and a score on the ground.  This Louisville defense is really gassed after allowing 52 points to Miami last week, 449 yards to Virginia two weeks ago, 34 points to SMU three weeks ago and 31 points to Notre Dame four weeks ago.  I don't think they will have the energy to chase around Castellanos for four quarters.

Boston College has a solid defense that will hold Louisville in check.  The Eagles allow 20.7 points per game, 351.7 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Boston College Friday.

15* Thunder/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best team in the West this season.  They earned the No. 1 seed last year.  They traded for Alex Caruso and signed Isaiah Hartenstein, though he will miss a month to injury.  Getting Caruso in their for Josh Giddey is an instant upgrade.

While I'm very high on the Thunder this season, I'm pretty low on the Denver Nuggets.  They just don't have much to like outside Jokic, Murray, Gordon and Porter Jr.  They lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the Magic, and he's one of the best 3-and-D guards in the league.

The Nuggets acquired the No. 22 overall pick DaRon Holmes II from the Phoenix Suns on draft night, but he has since torn his Achilles.  They had to sign Dario Saric to be Jokic's backup, and that's a problem.  They also signed Russell Westbrook, and we know how much of a cancer he can be off the bench.  The Nuggets' lack of quality depth is a big problem this season.

The Thunder went 3-0 SU in their final three meetings with the Nuggets last season including a pair of upset wins in Denver.  I fully expect them to win their opener outright as well.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +3.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Rams after opening 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against the toughest schedule in the NFL through the first five weeks.  Their four losses came to the Lions, Cardinals, Bears and Packers while their lone win actually came against the 49ers.  They played three of their first five games on the road, and three of the four losses they had a chance to win in the final seconds in one-score games.

In their two home games they were impressive, upsetting the 49ers 27-24 and barely coming up short against the Packers, 24-19.  They outgained the Packers 370 to 328 in their final game going into their bye.  This despite being extremely banged up on offense and defense.

The Rams received a much-needed bye week and came out of it healthier.  They beat the Raiders 20-15 last week off their bye holding the Raiders to five field goals.  Now more reinforcements are on the way with Cooper Kupp expected to return this week, and the offense will be more dynamic this week than is has been at any other point this season with the exception of Week 1 when they took the Lions to OT on the road.

The Rams now sit at 2-4 on the season, but just 1.5 games back in their division.  They know a win over the Vikings Thursday night would get them right back in it, and I expect them to win this game outright.

This is a tough spot for the Vikings.  They are coming off a 31-29 home loss to the Detroit Lions, which are their biggest contenders to win the division.  It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat in time to face the Rams on a short week, especially when they have to travel all the way to Los Angeles in between.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  Plus, teams after facing the physical Lions are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS this season and failing to cover by an average of 25.9 points per game.  This trend has been great over the last couple seasons as well.

Of course, it's also time to 'sell high' on the Vikings, who are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season.  They have benefited from only having to play two true road games this season, and one came against the Giants and the other was against the Packers with Jordan Love hobbled in his first game back from injury.  Love gifted the Vikings 3 interceptions and spotted them a 28-0 lead, only to see the Packers come back and lose by only 2.  I would argue this will be Minnesota's toughest road test of the season with the Rams getting healthier, and the Vikings on a short week with travel.  Bet the Rams Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Wizards OVER 231.5

The Boston Celtics showed what kind of team they are going to be this season in their opener against the New York Knicks.  They are going to shoot even more 3's this season and embrace it, just as many other NBA teams are expected to do.  This is quickly becoming an 'OVER' league as a result.

Nobody shoots the 3-pointer better than the Celtics, and that was on display in their 132-109 home win over the Knicks in the opener that saw 241 combined points.  They tied an NBA record with 29 made 3's on a whopping 61 attempts.  They missed their last 13 attempts trying to break the record.  Only 41 points were scored in the 4th quarter and it still finished with 241 combined.

Now the Celtics face the Washington Wizards, who are coming off the worst record in team history at 15-67.  A big reason for their struggles is the fact that they were the worst defensive team in the NBA, and it's not going to get much better this season.  They are still led by two one-way players in Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma who don't play defense.  They will implement some good young talent this season, but they won't be better defensively.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 254, 234, 262, 233, 241 and 251 combined points.  As you can see, all six went over this 231.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Suns/Clippers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -4.5

The Phoenix Suns already had the Big 3 of Durant, Beal and Booker.  They just needed the right pieces around them and the right head coach, and I think they had the best hire of the offseason in bringing in Mike Budenholzer, who won a title in 2021 with the Bucks over the Suns.

Despite having some of the best shooters on the planet, the Suns shot just 32.6 3-pointers per game last season.  The best teams shoot around 40 each night.  In five preseason games, the Suns averaged 44 3-point attempts per game.

The big addition was Tyus Jones from the Wizards as he can be the point guard to run the offense so the ball doesn't stick in the Big 3's hands.  He is a real point guard, Monte Morris is a real backup and Mason Plumlee will do the dirty work off the bench behind Jusuf Nurkic.  This now looks like a real contender in the West.

As much as I love the Suns, this is more of a play against the Clippers than anything.  They traded away Paul George in the offseason, and Kawhi Leonard is hurt to start the season to nobody's surprise.  So they are without their two best players from last year.  James Harden is way past his prime and will be counted upon to do too much until Leonard is ready to return.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets -6.5

The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year.  The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs.

Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch.  They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams.  They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.  I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season.

The Charlotte Hornets are relying too much two injury-plagued youngsters in LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams.  Ball will be healthy to start the season, but Williams is already out.  I like parts of Brandon Miller's game, but there's just not much to like about this team as a whole.  They have yet another new head coach in Charles Lee, and it's going to take some time for this team to gel.  They aren't on the Rockets' level on opening night, and this one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville State -20.5

Jacksonville State has been an absolute wagon in their last three games.  They beat Southern Miss 44-7 as 6-point favorites, Kennesaw State 63-24 as 17-point favorites and New Mexico State 54-13 as 21-point favorites.  They have covered the spread in those three games by a combined 73 points and outscored their opponents by a combined 117 points.

Now the Gamecocks are off a bye week and ready to run it up on another bad team in Middle Tennessee.  I don't mind laying big numbers with teams like Jacksonville State who play at a super fast tempo, which means more possessions.  They rank 12th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.

Middle Tennessee has been embarrassing to say the least.  The Blue Raiders lost by 28 at home to Western Kentucky, by 28 at home to Duke, by 49 at Ole Miss and by 27 at LA Tech.  They also struggled to put away the worst team in college football last week in Kennesaw State in a 14-5 win.  To compare, Jacksonville State blasted Kennesaw State 63-24.  

The Blue Raiders are also in a tough spot playing their 3rd game in 14 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Gamecocks, who are fresh off a bye week and haven't played since October 9th.  Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers made the Eastern Conference Finals last season.  They didn't lose any starters or key reserves in the offseason, and they are going to have a lot of chemistry early in the season as a result.  I look to back teams with chemistry early.

The Detroit Pistons will be lacking chemistry.  They made two of the worst moves of the offseason paying Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway who will both play significant minutes for them.  There is promise with Cunningham, Ivey and Duren as their young nucleus, but there's not much else to like about this team.

The Pistons are going through another coaching change hiring JB Bickerstaff, who was fired by the Cleveland Cavaliers.  I think he is one of the worst coaches in the NBA, and I don't expect him to get the most out of this team, especially early in the season.

The Pacers went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings with the Pistons last season winning by 23, 19, 14 and 8 points.  This number is too short in the opener.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota ML -110

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a real contender in the West this season after making the Western Conference Finals last year.  I like their chemistry with first-year head coach Chris Finch, and they have the best player on the floor in Anthony Edwards.

The Timberwolves lose Karl-Anthony Towns, but I think the two pieces they got in a trade more than make up for it.  Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo come over in the trade.  Now the Timberwolves don't have to worry about playing Towns and Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert at the same time, which was an issue at times last year.

The Lakers are going through yet another coaching change bringing in JJ Redick.  They struck out on Dan Hurley, and Redick was their second choice, which is already a negative.  I think Darvin Ham got thrown under the bus.

LeBron James is past his prime, and the Lakers wasted a draft pick on Bronny James, who was one of the worst players in the NBA in the preseason.  They just don't have a lot of reliable scorers outside James and Anthony Davis, which has been a problem for them since they teamed up.  

The Lakers are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in NBA season openers in the LeBron James era.  I trust the Timberwolves to be more ready for the opener than the Lakers in this one.  Bet the Timberwolves on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* CFB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on UTEP/LA Tech OVER 50

UTEP and Louisiana Tech both like to play fast on offense which means there will be a lot of possessions in this game and more chances for points.  UTEP ranks 23rd in tempo snapping it every 24.2 seconds, while LA Tech ranks 46th in tempo at 25.2 seconds in between snaps.

Both teams are coming off two of their best offensive performances of the season.  UTEP put up 30 points on FIU last week.  The Miners have one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 121st in scoring defense at 32.6 points per game and 120th in total defense at 419.9 yards per game.

LA Tech put up 30 points on New Mexico State last week after scoring 48 on Middle Tennessee the previous week.  But the Bulldogs allowed 33 points to one of the worst offenses in the country in New Mexico State last week.  I like QB Evan Bullock, who is their full-time starter now and has a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio the last two games.  They are forming great chemistry with Bullock, and he should have another big game here.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout here tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with no wind or rain to speak of in Ruston, LA.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Knicks/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on New York +5.5

The New York Knicks are the perfect regular season team.  They show up every night, and they will be hungry after injuries decimated their team in the playoffs in a Game 7 loss to the Pacers.  They are pretty much fully healthy and motivated to begin 2024-25.

I love the move to bring in Karl-Anthony Towns, who played under Tom Thibodeau in Minnesota.  He adds instant scoring a 3-point shooting as the Knicks are already good enough defensively.  They also brought in another former Villanova player in Mikal Bridges from the Brooklyn Nets to team him with Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart.  The Knicks took off after trading for OG Anunoby last year, and he's healthy after getting injured in the playoffs.  You would be hard-pressed to find a better starting 5 in the entire NBA than Brunson, Hart, Towns, Bridges and Anunoby.

The Celtics finally got over the hump and won their title last year.  I have no doubt their will be a championship hangover early in the season for the Celtics, and they won't be nearly as motivated early.  They are also without Kristaps Porzingis to start the season after he averaged 20.1 points per game in his 57 games last year.

The Knicks want to make a statement in Game 1, and I think we get a big effort from them and a lackluster effort from the Celtics after receiving their championship rings.  It will certainly be good enough to cover 5.5 and likely win outright tonight.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Chargers/Cardinals Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Chargers just had a bye two weeks ago and got a ton of players back from injury.  They promptly jumped out to a 23-0 lead over the Broncos in their first game back from the bye and coasted to victory in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  Now they remain fresh, and we are getting them at a great value Monday night as only 2.5-point favorites over the dreadful Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals are a tired team that looks lost right now.  They'll be playing for a 7th consecutive week and have been through the gauntlet.  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall and their lone win over the 49ers was an absolute fluke.  They came back from a 23-10 halftime deficit as the 49ers continually shot themselves in the foot in the 2nd half.

The three losses came 34-13 at Green Bay, 42-14 at home to Washington and 20-13 at home to the Lions.  Kyler Murray and the offense are stuck in the mud, and the defense is one of the worst in the NFL.  The Cardinals rank 27th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game allowed, 27th in total defense at 373.3 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.

The Chargers have a massive edge defensively as they rank 1st in scoring defense at 13.2 points per game and 6th in total defense at 289.2 yards per game.  Jim Harbaugh always has a good defense everywhere he goes, and he has turned this Chargers stop unit into one of the league's best in his first season.

The offense got a healthy Justin Herbert and both his starting tackles back last week and it made a big difference.  Los Angeles is a run-heavy offense that ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing.  That makes this a bad matchup for Arizona, which ranks 29th against the run allowing 153.0 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.  Things will come easy for the Chargers offensively, and nothing will come easy for Kyler Murray and company.

The Cardinals are really banged up with four starters questionable on offense and four starters questionable on defense, plus another five defenders on IR.  The Chargers will wear the Cardinals down with their rushing attack and be able to get the necessary first downs late in this game to preserve the win and cover.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* Ravens/Bucs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48

Two of the best offenses in the NFL square off Monday night against two defenses that are vulnerable to their opponents' strengths.  This has the makings of a shootout, especially with the forecast perfect for a shootout with no rain, less than 10 MPH winds and temps in the 70's Monday night in Tampa Bay.

The Ravens have the best offense in the NFL rank 1st in total offense at 453.7 yards per game and 1st at 7.1 yards per play.  The Buccaneers rank 4th in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play.  Both teams are almost fully healthy on offense right now as well.

The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing at 205.3 yards per game and 5.9 per carry.  The Bucs rank 24th in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per carry.  The Ravens are going to be able to get whatever they want against this banged-up Tampa Bay defense, which allows 23.5 points per game and hasn't faced an offense nearly as potent as Baltimore yet.  The Bucs allowed 27 points to the Saints and all their backups last week after allowing 36 points and 550 total yards to the Falcons the week prior.

No question the Ravens have a solid defense, but they are just 23rd in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play.  Where they have been particularly poor is against the pass, allowing 7.5 yards per attempt which ranks 26th in the NFL.  That makes this a great matchup for Baker Mayfield and this pass-heavy Tampa Bay offense.

The OVER is 5-1 in all Baltimore games this season with 45 or more combined points in all six, including 49 or more in four of the last five.  The OVER is 3-0 in Bucs last three games overall with 49, 66 and 78 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Mets/Dodgers NLCS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between the Dodgers and Mets this season with 7 or more combined runs in 10 of those 11 games.  Each of their last six meetings have seen 8 or more combined runs.  This total of 8 is too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers and bullpens.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own. They have averaged 7.2 runs per game in this series.  Sean Manaea allowed 3 runs in 5 innings to the Dodgers in Game 2, and getting a 2nd crack at him is an advantage for Los Angeles.  They also clearly have this Mets bullpen figured out.

The Dodgers are going to make this a bullpen game, and their bullpen hasn't exactly been up to par this series.  The Mets just blasted them for 12 runs last game, and only one Dodgers starter has lasted longer than 4 1/3 innings in the first five games of this series.  The Mets will rock whoever the Dodgers send to the mound in this one.

The OVER is 8-1-1 in Dodgers last 10 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in nine of those 10 games.  Bet the OVER in Game 6 Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Panthers/Commanders OVER 51

Both the Panthers and Commanders are dead nuts OVER teams.  Carolina is 4-0 OVER since Andy Dalton took over at quarterback with 58 or more combined points in three of them.  Washington is 5-1 OVER in all games this season with 53 or more combined points in four of them.

Washington ranks 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 29.7 points per game, 5th in total offense at 378 yards per game and 5th at 6.4 yards per play.  Jayden Daniels is the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year for good reason as he is already one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  He is completing 75.3% of his passes and has accounted for 10 total touchdowns.

Daniels and company should score at will against a Carolina defense that may be the worst in the entire NFL.  The Panthers rank dead last in scoring defense allowing 33.8 points per game this season.  They have allowed 34, 36 and 38 points the last three weeks.

Injuries to their defense is a big reason why as they have 10 defenders on IR and another 7 listed as questionable heading into this game.  They have been decimated on that side of the ball.  They will be facing a Washington offense that is basically fully healthy and should get RB Brian Robinson back this week.

Andy Dalton has at least made this Carolina offense respectable averaging 22.5 points per game in his four starts.  He'll be up against a poor Washington defense that ranks 30th in the NFL allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Commanders are also 29th allowing 5.0 yards per carry this season, so the Panthers should have plenty of success on the ground behind Chubba Hubbard.

Injuries are starting to pile up for the Commanders defensively as they just lost their best defensive lineman in Jonathan Allen to a season-ending injury in allowing 30 points and 484 total yards to the Ravens last week.  Another five defensive starters are listed as questionable heading into this one as well.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Sunday afternoon with temps in the 70's and, 3 MPH winds and zero chance of rain.  I've been riding OVERS in Carolina and Washington games in recent weeks, and now they meet up and I'm definitely not passing up this opportunity.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Raiders/Rams Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5

I grabbed the Rams -5 on Sunday night loving the spot for this team and anticipating they would get bet.  Well, as of this writing they are up to 7-point favorites now against the Raiders, and I obviously agree with the move.  This one has blowout written all over it.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Rams after opening 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against the toughest schedule in the NFL through the first five weeks.  Their four losses came to the Lions, Cardinals, Bears and Packers while their lone win actually came against the 49ers.  They played three of their first five games on the road, and three of the four losses they had a chance to win in the final seconds in one-score games.

In their two home games they were impressive, upsetting the 49ers 27-24 and barely coming up short against the Packers, 24-19.  They outgained the Packers 370 to 328 in their final game going into their bye.  This despite being extremely banged up on offense and defense.

Reinforcements are on the way now as the Rams had a much-needed bye last week, and they will be looking at this as a brand new season moving forward.  Cooper Kupp returned to practice this week and could return.  RT Joe Notebloom is off IR and back to practice and could return.  The defense is almost fully healthy now and should be one of the most improved units in the league the rest of the way.

But this is as much a fade of the Raiders as it is a play on the Rams.  The Raiders are lost right now.  They have gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with a 19-point home loss to the Steelers, a 16-point road loss to the Broncos and a 14-point home loss to the Panthers.  Their lone win came at home against the hapless Browns during this stretch.

The Raiders just traded WR Devante Adams to the Jets earlier this week, signaling that their season is over.  DE Maxx Crosby has yet to practice this week and may not play, especially since he is so close to Adams.  RB Zamir White, WR Jakobi Meyers and RG Dylan Parham are all questionable on offense.  DT John Jenkins, LB Tommy Eichenberg and CB Jack Jones are all questionable along with Crosby.  Five other defenders are already on IR.  They have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL and now limited weapons outside TE Brock Bowers to get the ball to.

Los Angeles RB Kyren Williams should have a huge day against a Raiders defense that allows 140.3 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry to take some pressure off of Stafford, and the Rams are at their best when they can run the football.  I obviously got a good line here at -5, but would still play the Rams up to -7 and throw them in some teasers at that number.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Seahawks/Falcons OVER 48.5

The Seattle Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team right now with a really banged up defense missing several key players on their defensive line and in the secondary.  But their offense is good enough to go score for score with almost anyone, and they're going to have to try and do that in the dome in Atlanta Sunday.

The Seahawks allowed 36 points and 483 total yards to the 49ers last week, 29 points and 420 total yards to a Giants team that was without two of its best weapons in WR Nabers and RB Singletary two weeks ago, and 42 points to the Lions three weeks ago.

It won't get any easier for this Seattle defense going up against an Atlanta offense that is fully healthy and hitting on all cylinders right now.  The Falcons put up 36 points and 550 total yards on the Bucs two weeks ago and 38 points and 423 total yards on the Panthers last week.  Kirk Cousins is showing he's still got it, and he has ample weapons to get the ball to.

Atlanta ranks 31st in the league in pass rush and just cannot get to opposing quarterbacks.  Despite a shaky offensive line, Geno Smith is going to have all day to pick apart their defense.  The Falcons have allowed 20-plus points in five consecutive games, including 30 to the Bucs in their last home game.  Geno Smith has his full compliment of weapons healthy right now as their offense is very healthy as a whole.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 50 or more combined points in five of those six.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay Packers -2.5

The Green Bay Packers are hitting on all cylinders offensively with Jordan Love back fully healthy and with his full compliment of weapons.  The Packers have five offensive players on the injury report but all five practiced on Thursday, which is a good sign they are good to go.

The Packers scored 29 points on the Vikings, 24 on the Rams and then 34 on the Cardinals last week in Love's three starts back from injury.  They racked up 437 total yards on the Cardinals last week.  Love threw for 258 yards and 4 touchdowns.  This is one of the best offenses in the league when fully healthy.

The Texans allowed Drake Maye to throw 3 touchdown passes on them in his first career start last week.  Their defense is extremely banged up right now with five starters missing practice both Wednesday and Thursday in DT Fatukasi, LB Al-Shaair, LB To'oto'o, S Ward and CB Lassiter.  Plus, DT Mario Edwards was just suspended and will miss this game.  The Packers should be able to name their number Sunday.

The Texans are overvalued due to their 5-1 start this season.  They could easily be 3-3 instead or worse.  Four of their five wins came by 6 points or fewer and a total of 15 points.  The lone blowout came against arguably the worst team in the NFL in the Patriots last week.

We saw what happened when the Texans hit the road and took a step up in class earlier this season in their lone loss.  They fell 34-7 to Minnesota, which is the same Minnesota team Green Bay took to the wire a few weeks ago in a 31-29 defeat.  Keep in mind the Texans actually had Nico Collins in that game, and now he is out with injury.  He is easily their best receiver with 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD despite missing one game.  They need him to beat a team like Green Bay, and couple that with all their defensive injuries, and I give them little chance of keeping this game competitive.

The Packers have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL and it's worth a full 3 points in my opinion.  Considering the Packers are the better, healthier team right now, they should be more than 2.5-point favorites at home this week.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +4.5

I love the spot for the Miami Dolphins this week.  The Dolphins are coming off their bye week and they are about as healthy as they have been all season now with the exception of QB Tua Tagovailoa.

But Tyler Huntley was brought in to replace him and started the same week he was brought in in a loss to the Titans.  He was much better in a 15-10 win at New England in his second start, and now with two full weeks to get accustomed to Mike McDaniels' offense, he is primed for his best game yet.

That's especially the case considering he takes a big step down in class here against a Colts defense that is one of the worst in the NFL, plus one that is dealing with a ton of injuries.  The Colts rank 30th in total defense at 389.5 yards per game allowed.  They are 31st against the run allowing 155.2 rushing yards per game.  The Dolphins will go with a run-heavy approach, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them rush for 200-plus yards in this one with all their weapons in Achane and Mostert healthy, plus Huntley being a dual-threat.

What has gone unnoticed for the Dolphins is just how good their defense has been this season.  They rank 5th in total defense allowing just 285.4 yards per game.  The Colts are making a mistake going from Joe Flacco back to Anthony Richardson at quarterback.  They have played their best this season with Flacco, and Richardson is too much boom or bust with his inaccuracy as a passer.  Four key players on offense are all questionable in RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Josh Downs, WR Alec Pierce and C Ryan Kelly.

The Dolphins were just 2.5-point home favorites over the Titans two games ago.  The Colts were just 2.5-point road dogs to the Titans last week.  As you can see, there's clearly value in getting the Dolphins at +4.5 this week based on those recent lines against a common opponent.  This line should be much closer to PK.  The Colts are a tired team playing six straight one-score games to open the season, while the Dolphins are fresh and off a bye.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

15* Yankees/Guardians ALCS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

The OVER is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings between the Guardians and Yankees this season with 7 or more combined runs in eight of those nine.  This total is 7 is just too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers and bullpens.

This New York bullpen is taxed after playing five of the last six days with the first four games of this series all decided by 3 runs or less.  Carlos Rodon won't be nearly as effective as he was in Game 1 when he allowed one run in 6 innings.  He allowed 4 runs in 3 2/3 innings to the Royals in his previous start, and I expect the Guardians to do more damage to him the 2nd time they see him tonight.

This Cleveland bullpen is taxed with four of the first five games decided by 3 runs or less and all of their top arms getting shelled.  That's bad news with Tanner Bibee starting considering he only lasted 1 1/3 innings in Game 2 while allowing 3 runs and 6 base runners in a 6-3 loss to the Yankees.  New York is capable of covering this total on its own.  Bet the OVER in Game 5 Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/Florida UNDER 43

Both Florida and Kentucky are dead nuts UNDER teams.  Both play elite defense and both are lacking on offense.  Add to that the fact that there will be double-digit winds in Gainesville Saturday night, and we have the recipe for an ugly, defensive battle in this one.

The UNDER is 5-1 in all Kentucky games this season.  The Wildcats rank 114th in scoring at 20.5 points per game, 117th in total offense at 321.7 yards per game and 109th at 5.1 yards per play.  The Wildcats are in no hurry, either, ranking 126th in tempo at 29.9 seconds in between plays.

Kentucky ranks 9th in scoring defense at 14.5 points per game and 5th in total defense at 251.5 yards per game allowed.  Their defense is always fresh because their offense runs at such a slow pace and tries to control the ball.  Kentucky held Georgia to 13 points and Ole Miss to 17 points, and those are two of the best offenses in the country.  That's all you need to know about how good this defense really is.

I was on Florida last week as +14.5-point underdogs at Tennessee and it was mostly due to their defensive improvement.  I was very impressive with Florida only allowing 13 points and 273 total yards to UCF the week prior, including 108 rushing on 40 attempts after UCF came into that game as one of the top rushing teams in the country.

The Gators followed it up with an even more impressive defensive effort at Tennessee, allowing just 312 total yards including 143 rushing on 43 attempts to the Vols, who had previously been one of the top overall offenses in the country.  They deserved to win that game.

Unfortunately for Florida, starting QB Graham Mertz got injured in that Tennessee game and now will be out for this game.  That leaves the offense to freshman DJ Lagway, who adds a dual-threat element to their offense, but isn't near the passer that Mertz was.  The Gators are going to have to be more of a one-dimensional running team moving forward with Lagway, and that makes them even more of an UNDER team.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 44, 37, 42 and 47 combined points.  As you can see, this has been a very low-scoring series, and it figures to continue to be that way given all the factors heading into this game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +6.5

The Michigan State Spartans desperately needed a bye week.  They not only played six consecutive weeks, but they finished it by having to play two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and then having to travel to Eugene to face Oregon on a short week on a Friday night.

Now the Spartans have been off for the last two weeks and will be fresh for this game against Iowa Saturday night.  Bye weeks benefit first-year head coaches more than any, and giving one of the most underrated head coaches in the country in Jonathan Smith extra time to prepare for Iowa is a huge advantage.

This is a tough spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  After traveling to Ohio State and getting blasted two weeks ago, the Hawkeyes came back home and beat Washington 40-16 last week.  I think the Hawkeyes are getting too much respect now off that blowout win that was not only misleading, but it was also a terrible spot for Washington.

The Huskies were coming off their win over Michigan, and they got their national title revenge.  They were flat because of it, and it was an early 9:00 AM body clock game for the Huskies against Iowa last week.  Yet Washington still outgained Iowa 393 to 328 for the game.  The Hawkeyes had no business scoring 40 points on just 328 total yards, including 108 passing.

Iowa is a one-dimensional running team this season.  That makes this a great matchup for Michigan State, which has a great defense especially against the run.  Despite the tough schedule, the Spartans rank 38th in the country allowing 330.3 yards per game and only 21.0 points per game.  They only allow 131 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  They have what it takes to slow down Iowa's Kaleb Johnson, who is one of the best backs in the country.

Michigan State was dreadful last year but still managed to outgain Iowa 349 to 222, or by 127 yards in their meeting as 10-point underdogs in Iowa City.  The Spartans are now one of the most improved teams in the country this season, and coming off their bye week they are primed for one of their best performances of the season.  It will be good enough to not only cover this 6.5-point spread, but likely win this game outright.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* LSU/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas +3

The Arkansas Razorbacks are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and could easily be 6-0.  If they were 6-0, they would not be 3-point home underdogs to LSU.  They outgained Oklahoma State 648 to 385 and found a way to lose in OT.  They ougtgained Texas A&M 379 to 297 and led in the 4th quarter of a 21-17 defeat.

Arkansas has elite numbers this season averaging 485 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 322 yards per game and 5.2 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 163 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.

Based on numbers alone, Arkansas is the better team.  LSU averages 460 yards per game and 6.7 per play on offense and allows 372 yards per game and 5.8 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 88 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play.  And keep in mind the Razorbacks have also played the tougher schedule to this point.

After a grueling 19-14 home win over Tennessee, the Razorbacks needed a bye week after playing for a 6th consecutive week.  They got that bye last week, and now they have had two full weeks to rest and prepare for LSU.  Meanwhile, LSU is coming off a huge OT home win over a short-handed Ole Miss team in which they never led until OT.  This is a clear flat spot for the Tigers now feeling fat and happy off that Ole Miss win.

Each of the last four meetings between Arkansas and LSU were decided by exactly 3 points, so getting 3 points with the Razorbacks alone is a nice value. But this Arkansas team is one of the most improved in the country and ready to pull the upset at home in what will be a hostile atmosphere Saturday night.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

25* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado/Arizona OVER 55.5

Colorado is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Buffaloes have gone OVER the total in three consecutive games combining for 69 points with Baylor, 69 with UCF and 59 with Kansas State.  This total of 55.5 is too low for a game against Arizona with perfect weather conditions and a Wildcats team that also profiles as a dead nuts OVER team.

The strength of Colorado is their passing game which ranks 8th in the country at 336.3 yards per game while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  The weakness of Arizona is their defense, which allows 26.5 points per game and hasn't faced an offense as potent as this Colorado outfit.  They just allowed 41 points to BYU last week and will be playing for a 4th consecutive week with a tired defense.

But Arizona should have plenty of offensive success against Colorado, which allows 24.3 points per game and has given up 31 to Baylor and 31 to Kansas State this season.  I'd argue this Arizona offense is the best unit they will have faced this season.  The Wildcats average 413.5 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play, including 5.1 yard per carry on the ground and 7.1 yards per pass attempt.  This despite playing three of their last four games against elite defenses in BYU, Utah and Kansas State as well as an improved Texas Tech stop unit.

Arizona beat Colorado 34-31 for 65 combined points last season with a similar total of 56.  They combined for 63 points in 2022 as well.  It should be more of the same here as these two offenses combine for 60-plus points Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on UConn ML -118

The UConn Huskies are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS this season with their two losses both coming on the road to Maryland and Duke.  They rolled FAU 48-14 and Buffalo 47-3 at home before escaping with a 29-20 win over Temple.  They were a tired team going into that Temple game playing for a 6th consecutive week, and it was a bit of a letdown spot with Wake Forest on deck.

The Huskies got a much-needed bye week and have had two full weeks to prepare for Wake Forest.  No question they will come back highly motivated with this opportunity to play a team from the ACC, albeit one of the worst teams in the conference.

The spot is a poor one for Wake Forest.  Now it's the Demon Deacons that are the tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week.  They lost 41-38 at home to Louisiana, won 34-30 at NC State and then lost 49-14 at home to Clemson.  After playing those two games that came down to the wire, you could tell how fatigued they were especially defensively against Clemson.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat to get up for this non-conference game against UConn, and I don't see them being able to do it.  UConn wants this one more and is in the better spot to get it.

A big reason UConn is so improve this season is thier offense, which averages 450 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They should be able to get whatever they want offensively against a Wake Forest defense that is one of the worst in the country.  The Demon Deacons rank 119th in scoring defense at 34.0 points per game, 127th at 478 yards per game allowed and 120th at 6.5 yards per play.

The Demon Deacons don't have their usual potent offense this season largely due to having the embattled Hank Bachmeier at quarterback.  They average fewer than 400 yards per game despite playing at the 12th-fasted tempo in college football.  I've never been a fan of Bachmeier dating back to his Boise State days.  UConn has an improved defense that allows 21.7 points per game, 339 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  The Huskies will get enough stops to preserve the lead.  Bet UConn on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Auburn/Missouri ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +4.5

The Auburn Tigers went through the gauntlet to start the season having to play six consecutive weeks without a bye and closing it with games against Cal, New Mexico, Arkansas, Oklahoma and then Georgia.  They needed a bye week, and I expect them to come back refreshed and ready to go against Missouri this week as they head into the 2nd half of their season.

Due to their 2-4 SU record, the Auburn Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have the numbers of a team that should be 5-1 or 6-0.  Auburn ranks 35th in the country at 445 yards per game and 9th at 7.3 yards per play on offense, and 48th in the country at 338 yards per game and 5.0 per play allowed on defense.  That's right, they are outgaining teams by 107 yards per game and a whopping 2.3 yards per play despite being 2-4.  Costly turnovers and poor execution in short-yardage situations are the culprit, and they worked on those situations over their bye week.

Missouri is overrated due to its 5-1 record this season.  They beat Boston College 27-21 as 14.5-point home favorites and Vanderbilt 30-27 as 17.5-point home favorites.  They finally got exposed losing 41-10 at Texas A&M two weeks ago which was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  They were outgained 512 to 254 by the Aggies, or by 258 yards.

Based on the numbers, Auburn is as good as Texas A&M and will expose them again.  Auburn has also played the 36th-ranked schedule while Missouri has played the 111th.  The competition gets a lot tougher for Missouri moving forward after having another easy game against UMass last week.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana -6.5

The Indiana Hoosiers are the most improved team in the country.  They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and would be 6-0 ATS as long as you bet them early in Week 1.  When head coach Curt Cignetti accepted the head coaching job, one of his first stops was Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, where the Big Ten Championship Game was being played the next day.

Cignetti went on Big Ten Network and said, "I figured I had to make this trip up here since we'll be playing in this game next year." His team has exuded that confidence all offseason and during the season, and they believe.  The Hoosiers have a great chance to get to 9-0 going into consecutive games against Michigan and Ohio State.

The Hoosiers are absolutely loaded on offense ranking 3rd in the country in scoring at 47.5 points per game, 6th in total offense at 515.7 yards per game and 7th at 7.6 yards per play.  They have tremendous balance averaging 315 passing yards per game and 200 rushing yards per game.  That balance is what makes them so tough to tame.

But the Hoosiers have been equally impressive on the other side of the football.  They rank 14th in scoring defense at 14.8 points per game, 7th in total defense at 255.7 yards per game and 11th at 4.4 yards per play.  Nebraska also has a great defense, but they have benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses, and they haven't faced an offense nearly as potent as Indiana.

The Huskers are 5-1 SU this season and have benefited from a very soft schedule with five home games against Rutgers, Illinois, UNI, Colorado and UTEP, and their lone road game coming against the worst team in the Big Ten in Purdue.  This will be by far Nebraska's toughest test of the season Saturday afternoon, and I don't expect them to be able to stay within a TD of the Hoosiers.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Indiana FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 50.5

The Indiana Hoosiers are absolutely loaded on offense ranking 3rd in the country in scoring at 47.5 points per game, 6th in total offense at 515.7 yards per game and 7th at 7.6 yards per play.  They have tremendous balance averaging 315 passing yards per game and 200 rushing yards per game.  That balance is what makes them so tough to tame.

The Indiana Hoosiers are vastly improved on offense this season thanks to having a 5-star QB in Dylan Raiola.  He is completing 67% of his passes for 1,358 yards with a 9-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  He leads a Nebraska offense that averaging 28.0 points per game despite playing several games in tough wind conditions, some poor kicking and some poor red zone executioin.

Raiola and company are going to be forced to try and keep up with Indiana in a shootout.  The Huskers have pretty much held a lead for every second of every game this season and have been able to be methodical on offense.  They won't have that luxury this week because Indiana will get its points.

This is by far the best offense Nebraska has faced as their first six games have come against Rutgers, Purdue, Illinois, UNI, Colorado and UTEP with five of those six games coming at home, and their lone road game coming at Purdue.  Indiana has good defensive numbers like Nebraska, but that is largely due to the schedule as well having faced Northwestern, Maryland, Charlotte, UCLA, Western Illinois and Florida International.  I would argue Nebraska is the best offense they have faced if it's not Maryland.

The OVER is 5-0 in Indiana's last five games overall with 55 or more combined points in all five including 65 or more in four of them.  This 50.5-point total is very low for a game involving the Hoosiers.  Conditions will be perfect for a shootout Saturday afternoon with no wind, no rain and temps in the 60's.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Miami/Louisville ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 61

The Miami Hurricanes are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the country and have gone 5-0-1 OVER in all games this season with 62 or more combined points in five consecutive games coming in.  Now they are off their bye week and should have even more wrinkles offensively for Louisville this week.

Miami ranks 1st in the country in almost all major offensive categories including scoring (47.7 points per game), total offense (583.8 yards per game), yards per play (8.1) and passing offense (400 passing yards per game).  QB Cam Ward is among the Heisman Trophy favorites for good reason, throwing for 2,219 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 3 scores on the ground.

Louisville's defense is absolutely gassed right now playing for a 5th consecutive week off four straight games that went down to the wire against Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, SMU and Virginia.  They were on the field for 82 plays last week against Virginia and allowed 449 yards to their mediocre offense.  They gave up 34 points and 481 total yards to SMU the previous week.  They stand very little chance to slowing down this Miami offense this week.

Louisville will be forced to try to keep pace in a shootout.  The Cardinals have the goods offensively to do just that.  They rank 23rd in scoring at 36.2 points per game, 22nd in total offense at 461.8 yards per game and 14th at 7.2 yards per play.  Miami's defense was exposed in their last two games giving up 34 points to Virginia Tech and 38 to California, which both have mediocre offenses.  This Louisville offense will now be the best the Hurricanes have seen all season.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 69, 81 and 79 combined points.  Louisville beat Miami 38-31 on the road last season in a game that saw 956 yards of total offense.  It will be more of the same in this meeting, especially with the forecast being perfect for scoring with no wind or rain and temps in the 60's this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Yankees/Guardians ALCS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The OVER is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between the Guardians and Yankees this season with 7 or more combined runs in seven of those eight.  This total is 7.5 is just too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers and bullpens.

Luis Gil will be making his first start since September 28th for the Yankees as they have not trusted him in the postseason up to this point.  It's easy to see why after he allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 innings in his final two starts of the regular season.  Gil won't go deep in this game, and this New York bullpen is taxed now playing their 4th game in 5 days and coming off an extra innings game where they used up their best arms.

Gavin Williams will be making his first start since September 22nd for the Guardians as they have not trusted him in the postseason up to this point.  Williams has allowed 11 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings in his last four starts and will get roughed up.  The Guardians also have a taxed bullpen after using all of their best arms in extra innings last night as well.  Bet the OVER in Game 4 Friday.

20* Oregon/Purdue FOX No-Brainer on Purdue +28.5

I was waiting for a 28 this week to back Purdue and we finally got it, and an even better 28.5 at Circa which I have released to premium clients as of Thursday.  This is a terrible spot for the Oregon Ducks, and I like what I saw from the Boilermakers last week enough to pull the trigger.

Oregon is in the flat spot of all flat spots.  The Ducks are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, upsetting Ohio State 32-31 at home as 3.5-point underdogs to take a commanding lead in the Big Ten title race.  They are fat and happy, and they are primed for a letdown here against Purdue.

The Boilermakers switched quarterbacks last week and head coach Ryan Walters took over play-calling duties to try and save his job.  It worked wonders as the Boilermakers looked like a new team, taking Illinois to the wire in a 50-49 (OT) loss as 22.5-point road underdogs.

Freshman Ryan Browne made his first collegiate start at QB and threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 118 yards against what is a very good Illinois defense.  I think Browne gives this team new life, and his dual-threat ability will keep the Boilermakers coming for four quarters against Oregon this week.

Walters expressed frustration to his players about media calling out his team for quitting, and they responded. "I just talked to them about, I don't care what you're doing in life, where you're at, what your occupation is.  As a man, don't ever let the perception be that you quit when things got tough or that you quit when adversity hits.  In life, as in football, adversity is guaranteed. At a bare minimum it should be that you fight" Walters said.

Oregon's two road games have been short trips to Corvalis to face Oregon State and to Los Angeles to face UCLA.  This should be their toughest road test of the season, especially given the flat spot and the short week.  They aren't exactly keeping the foot on the gas offensively scoring 37 or fewer points in five of their six games, and if they don't top that number it's going to be very hard for them to cover this massive 28.5-point spread.  Plus, they will likely be without their best pass rusher in Jordan Burch, who suffered a knee injury.

Purdue has a bye on deck next week so they should be 'all in' here, plus I'm not worried about them being flat coming off an OT loss to Illinois considering it's a Top 5 Oregon team coming to town.  They are looking at this as their National Championship Game, and I think it will be much closer than this 28.5-point spread would indicate.  Bet Purdue Friday.

15* Dodgers/Mets NLCS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Dodgers and Mets this season with 7 or more combined runs in nine of those 10 games.  Each of their last five meetings have seen 8 or more combined runs.  This total of 7.5 is too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers and bullpens.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own again after scoring 10 runs last night.  It looks like the Mets will go with the shaky David Peterson to start and make this a bullpen game thereafter, and their bullpen is clearly taxed at this point.  Peterson allowed 3 runs and 5 base runners in 2 1/3 innings in relief against the Dodgers in Game 1.

Jack Flaherty has been far from impressive here down the stretch.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or more in four of his last five starts.  He has allowed a total of 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 26 1/3 innings in those five starts.

The OVER is 7-1-1 in Dodgers last nine games overall with 8 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.  Bet the OVER in Game 5 Friday.

20* Broncos/Saints Total DOMINATOR on OVER 36.5

I originally sent out the OVER 36.5 Sunday night thinking this number was too short.  I still think it's too short, but I've also added the Broncos on the Money Line since seeing the injury report that came out for the Saints on Monday.

Scoring is up in the NFL right now, and this is about as short a total as you will see in the NFL.  Especially for a game played inside a dome in perfect conditions.  I understand the reasons to be hesitant about these two offenses, but I think they can both have enough success against these two defenses to get up and over 36.5 combined points.

The Broncos are capable of covering this total on their own against a Saints defense that has been absolutely dreadful the last two weeks.  They allowed 26 points and 460 total yards to a short-handed Chiefs offense on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They allowed 51 points and a whopping 594 total yards to the Bucs last week.

This New Orleans defense is gassed and banged up right now.  The Saints will be playing their 3rd game in 10 days after playing on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They are without S Will Harris and LB Pete Werner and it just looks like Dennis Allen has lost his touch.

Speaking of key injuries, the Broncos just lost their best defensive player and Defensive MVP candidate Patrick Surtain II to a concussion.  He obviously won't clear protocol in time to play Thursday and has already been ruled out.  They were already without LB Alex Singleton, who was their leading tackler before going down with injury.

Bo Nix is improving steadily leading the Broncos to 21.5 points per game during their 3-1 stretch in their last four games.  He should have his best game of the season against this tired, weak Saints defense.  I expect rookie Spencer Rattler to have enough success to contribute to the OVER cashing.  He led the Saints to 27 points against the Bucs in his first start last week.  He is boom-or-bust and could just as easily throw a pick-6 as a touchdown.  Bet Broncos on the Money Line and the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Broncos/Saints ATS ANNIHILATOR on Denver ML -125

I originally sent out the OVER 36.5 Sunday night thinking this number was too short.  I still think it's too short, but I've also added the Broncos on the Money Line since seeing the injury report that came out for the Saints on Monday.

The Broncos are capable of putting up a big number against a Saints defense that has been absolutely dreadful the last two weeks.  They allowed 26 points and 460 total yards to a short-handed Chiefs offense on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They allowed 51 points and a whopping 594 total yards to the Bucs last week.

This New Orleans defense is gassed and banged up right now.  The Saints will be playing their 3rd game in 10 days after playing on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They are without S Will Harris and LB Pete Werner and it just looks like Dennis Allen has lost his touch.

Bo Nix is improving steadily leading the Broncos to 21.5 points per game during their 3-1 stretch in their last four games.  He should have his best game of the season against this tired, weak Saints defense.

The reason I added the Broncos on the money line was the injury report for the Saints.  It's as bad as it gets, and New Orleans legitimately is the worst team in the NFL this week with the players they will be putting on the field.  

They are without their top two receivers in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.  RG Caesar Ruiz is out as is C Erik McCoy.  Both QB Derek Carr and TE Taysom Hill have been ruled out.  Spencer Rattler will have his hands full going up against a Denver defense that ranks 4th in the NFL in scoring at 16.0 points per game and 4th in total defense at 284.3 yards per game.  They will be without star CB Patrick Surtain II, but they are still good enough to hold Rattler and company in check.

I expect the Broncos to win somewhere in the 31-17 range, which will easily get us a win on them and the OVER.  Bet the Broncos on the Money Line and the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Dodgers/Mets NLCS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the Dodgers and Mets this season with 7 or more combined runs in eight of those nine.  This total of 7 is too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers and bullpens.

Yamamoto hasn't been the same starter since returning from injury this season.  He has allowed 11 earned runs in 16 innings in his last four starts for a 6.19 ERA.

Jose Quintana has been sharp for the Mets of late, but the Dodgers are a different animal.  Quintana allowed 3 earned runs, 2 homers and 8 hits in 6 innings in his last start against the Dodgers this season.

The OVER is 6-1-1 in Dodgers last eight games overall.  Bet the OVER in Game 4 Thursday.

15* Yankees/Guardians ALCS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between the Guardians and Yankees this season with 7 or more combined runs in six of those seven.  This total is 7 is just too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers and bullpens.

Clarke Schmidt hasn't been able to regain the form he had at the beginning of the season since returning from injury.  He has allowed 9 earned runs in 14 innings in his last three starts for a 5.79 ERA.

Matthew Boyd will get the first crack for the Guardians today before they make it a bullpen game.  Boyd hasn't made it out of the 4th inning in any of his last five starts.  The Yankees have had no problem against these Cleveland pitchers scoring 5 or more runs in seven consecutive meetings.  They are capable of covering this total on their own.  Bet the OVER in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Dodgers/Mets NLCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The first two games of this series saw 9 and 10 combined runs.  It should be more of the same in Game 3 with it flying OVER 7.5 combined runs due to these two gas can starting pitchers on the mound for their respective teams.

Walker Buehler went 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 16 starts in the regular season.  It hasn't gone any better for Buehler in the postseason as he allowed 6 earned runs in 5 innings to the Padres in his lone start.  Buehler allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 2 1/3 innings in his last start against the Mets as well.

Luis Severino is going through a rough stretch for the Mets allowed 3 earned runs or more in five consecutive starts.  He has allowed a total of 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 28 innings in his last five starts.  Severino allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 4 innings of an 8-4 loss to the Dodgers in his last start against them.

This game will likely go OVER the total before both of these starters exit not even needing extra runs when the bullpens come in.  Bet the OVER in Game 3 Wednesday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State -2.5

The Sam Houston State Bearkats are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They had a rude awakening in their first season at the FBS level last season, but they are one of the most improved teams in the country in Year 2.

Sam Houston State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming on the road to UCF.  They have four blowout wins all by 18 points or more, plus an impressive 40-39 upset win as 11.5-point underdogs over Texas State, which many felt would win the Sun Belt and possibly make the 12-team playoff this season.

Now the Bearkats will be motivated to prove they are a C-USA contender by taking down one of the favorites to win the conference in Western Kentucky tonight.  I like this WKU team, but this is a terrible spot for them as the Hilltoppers will be at a big rest disadvantage.

Indeed, Sam Houston State is coming off a bye week and last play on October 3rd, while Western Kentucky had to play UTEP on October 10th and only has five days in between games to get ready.  I fully expect the Bearkats to put to use this rest and preparation advantage, plus it should be a pretty hostile atmosphere in their favor with fans excited about this team after their 5-1 start.

Sam Houston has a big advantage on defense allowing 338 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, while WKU allows 385.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  It's pretty much a toss up offensively with Sam Houston averaging 401 yards per game and 5.5 per play while WKU averages 399 yards per game and 5.8 per play.

The big advantages the Bearkats have in rest, preparation, defense and home field should lead them to winning this game by a field goal or more to cover this short 2.5-point spread tonight.  Bet Sam Houston State Wednesday.

20* Bills/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 41

It's going to be very windy Monday night in New York with 10-20 MPH winds throughout the game.  Wind is the biggest factor in preventing points, and these are already two dead nuts UNDER teams as currently constructed.

The Jets have yet another Top 5 defense this season.  They rank 6th in scoring defense at 17.0 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 255.8 yards per game and 1st at 4.5 yards per play allowed.  They are nearly back to full strength defensively as LB C.J. Mosely is back this week and NB Michael Carter II is questionable.

The Bills have slipped a little defensively this season ranking 12th in the NFL allowing 21.2 points per game.  But injuries and a tough schedule are a big reason for that slippage as they have had to face the Texans, Ravens, Jaguars, Dolphins and Cardinals.  This may be the worst offense they have faced yet in the Jets.

The Bills have LB Terrel Bernard, NB Taron Johnson and SS Taylor Rapp back in the lineup after all three missed games earlier.  They'll be up against a poor Jets offense that ranks 25th in scoring at 18.6 points per game, 27th in total offense at 286.6 yards per game and 27th at 4.7 yards per play.

The problem for the Bills this season is a lack of playmakers on offense.  They rank 22nd in the NFL at 299.8 yards per game.  After managing just 10 points against the Ravens two weeks ago, the Bills were fortunate to get to 20 points against the Texans last week considering they were held to 276 total yards and 16 first downs.  Josh Allen had the worst game of his career completing just 9-of-30 (30%) of his pass attempts for 131 yards.

Allen was without his best receiver in Khalil Shakir last week, and he didn't practice Friday and may be out again with an ankle injury.  Now leading rusher James Cook has a toe injury and didn't practice Friday as well.  WR Mack Hollins and WR Curtis Samuel are banged up, and QB Allen is dealing with ankle and hand injuries and hasn't looked the same the last two weeks.

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 38 or fewer combined points in all five.  The UNDER is 17-2-1 in the last 20 Monday Night Football games when the home team is listed as the underdog.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* MLB Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Guardians/Yankees OVER 7.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Guardians and Yankees in Game 1 of this series tonight.  There will be 20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center at game time and 15-plus MPH winds blowing out that direction throughout.

Alex Cobb allowed 2 earned runs in 3 innings to the Tigers in his last start before the Guardians gave way to their bullpen.  Cobb has allowed 6 earned runs and 4 homers in 7 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Yankees.

Carlos Rodon has allowed 6 earned runs, 3 homers and 15 base runners in 9 innings in his last two starts coming in.  Rodon has allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 13 innings in his last two starts against Cleveland.

I don't trust either of these starters to shut down the opposition, especially given the forecast.  Both teams will likely have to go to their bullpens early in this one, and both bullpens should continue to surrender runs.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 Monday.

20* Lions/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Detroit -3

The Detroit Lions absolute hate the Dallas Cowboys.  They lost to them in the playoffs on a phantom penalty a few years ago.  They lost on another bogus penalty last year getting their 2-point conversion called back in a 20-19 defeat.  They have now lost six straight to the Cowboys.  This is the week they say enough is enough.

Normally I don't like backing teams coming out of their bye week who went into their bye week fat and happy like the Lions did.  They beat the Seahawks 42-29 to improve to 3-1 on the season.  But they aren't fat and happy because they have revenge in mind against the Cowboys, plus they are now trailing the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings within the division.  The Lions will be all business this week.

But this is as much a fade of the Cowboys as anything.  Dallas has been ravaged by injuries as they are missing four key defensive linemen including Parsons and Lawrence.  The Steelers weren't able to take advantage last week, but the Lions will be able to.  They have one of the best offensive lines and thus one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL.

The Lions rank 6th in the NFL in rushing at 151.2 yards per game and will be up against a Cowboys defense that ranks 24th at stopping the run.  The Cowboys are 0-2 in their two home games this season losing 44-19 to the Saints and 28-25 to the Ravens in a game the Ravens led by 22 at one point.  The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on the Cowboys while the Saints rushed for 190.  And that was before all these injuries started to hit this Cowboys defense.

This is a very tough spot for the Cowboys.  They return home from Pittsburgh after playing on Sunday Night Football and having their game delayed by lightning to boot.  It didn't get over until around midnight eastern, meaning the Cowboys didn't get back home until early Monday morning.  They have a bye on deck next week and may play it smart and not rush anyone back from injury as a result.  The Lions will be the fresher team playing with a sense of urgency this week.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Panthers OVER 47.5

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team with Andy Dalton at quarterback.  The OVER is 3-0 in Dalton's three starts this season with 58, 58 and 46 combined points.  He makes their offense respectable, and he is forced to try to win shootouts every week because the Panthers have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

The Panthers rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game allowed, 28th in total defense at 371.2 yards per game and 26th at 6.0 yards per play.  Injuries have absolutely decimated their defense as they are without DE Derrick Brown, LB Shaq Thompson, LB Jadeveon Clowney and LB Josey Jewell among others.  They have nine defenders on the IR already.

Now they must try and tame a hot Atlanta offense that ranks 7th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play.  Kirk Cousins is coming off one of his best games of his career with 509 passing yards and 4 TD in a 36-30 win over the Bucs last week.  The Falcons will be able to name their number against this Carolina defense, and Dalton and company will be forced to go up-tempo in the 2H to try and keep pace.  Carolina does a good job of pass blocking up front, and Atlanta has one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, so Dalton should have plenty of success.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Chargers/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Chargers this week.  They are coming off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Jim Harbaugh.  The bye couldn't have come at a better time for the Chargers, who were extremely banged up going into their bye and needed the rest to get some key players healthy.

Reinforcements are on the way now.  Both starting tackles in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are expected to return this week.  QB Justin Herbert needed those two weeks to get his ankle healed up and has no injury designation now.  They are fully healthy on offense, plus SS Derwin James returns and LB Joey Bosa will likely be back as well.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Broncos, who are coming off three straight misleading wins since their 0-2 start.  They caught the Bucs in a letdown spot after getting playoff revenge on the Lions the previous week and upset them 26-7.  Two weeks ago they beat the Jets 10-9 on the road despite managing just 176 total yards on offense.  Last week, they beat the Raiders 34-18 despite getting outgained 330 to 289 by Las Vegas.  The Raiders were going in to take a 17-3 lead but threw a 100-yard pick-6 that changed the game.

Injuries are mounting for the Broncos now.  They will be without two starting offensive linemen in C Luke Wattenberg and RT Alex Palczewski, and two other offensive linemen are already on the IR.  WR Josh Reynolds is out as well.  This Denver offense may be the worst in the entire NFL now.  They rank 28th in total offense at 270.6 yards per game and 30th at 4.6 yards per play.  They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks 5th at 282.5 yards per game, 6th at 5.2 yards per play and 1st in scoring at 12.5 points per game allowed.

The Chargers fit into a great system, and road favorites off a bye week have been gold for years to boot.  Bye teams coming off a loss against a non-bye team that is coming off a win, when the team off a bye is not more than a 3-point underdog are 35-6 ATS in the last 41 tries.  Favorites or short dogs off a loss off a bye are a great bet, and it makes sense because they are motivated and rested.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Colts/Titans OVER 42.5

The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now.  They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week.  They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker.

The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season.  Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan.  He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense.  The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit.

Shane Steichen is an offensive-minded head coach for the Colts and he is a dead nuts OVER coach because he likes to push the tempo and doesn't worry about defense.  This Indianapolis offense ranks 4th in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play.  They should do enough against the Titans to push this one up and OVER the total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Line Mistake on Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML -140

I released the Bucs on the Money Line as soon as I found out Derek Carr would be out for the Saints.  I already loved the spot for the Bucs after playing last Thursday while the Saints played on Monday, giving the Bucs a 4-day rest advantage.

This play has just gotten stronger with all the injuries the Saints are dealing with right now.  They aren't the same team that opened 2-0 with blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys.  Injuries have really decimated this team and are the biggest reason for their 0-3 record since.

Not only are the Saints without Carr, but they are without C Erik McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz.  Both backup centers are either out or questionable as well.  Defensively, the Saints are without LB Pete Werner and S Will Harris as well.  They just allowed 460 total yards to the Chiefs, who were missing key weapons and still did whatever they wanted offensively Monday night.

The Bucs rank 10th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game.  They are pretty healthy on offense, and on defense they are likely to get two key pieces back this week in DE Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield.  There's a good chance they get back to full strength here defensively, which hasn't been the case the last few weeks.

The Bucs are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to New Orleans, including a 26-9 victory last week.  I just don't think rookie QB Spencer Rattler has what it takes to win in his first start.  The Saints are also without TE Taysom Hill, who brings an added dimension to their offense that they have been missing the last three weeks.  Todd Bowles should have a field day calling defense against Rattler and keeping him off balance while committing multiple turnovers.  Bet the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans ML -115

The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now.  They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week.  They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker.

The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season.  Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan.  He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense.  The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit.

The Colts have a boom or bust offense, and I believe they are worse off with Anthony Richardson than Joe Flacco.  They are expected to start Richardson this week.  They will be without star RB Jonathan Taylor, and their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are both questionable.  Injuries have really decimated the Colts in the early going.

The Titans are fully healthy coming out of their bye and they get back their best defensive player in DE Jeffrey Simmons, who is one of the most underrated defenders in the entire NFL.  Defense has been a bright spot for the Titans, who rank 1st in the NFL at 243.8 yards per game allowed and 2nd at 4.6 yards per play.  They upgraded their defense big time, and I expect they'll get multiple turnovers in this game to change the game to their favor.  Bet the Titans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7

What more do the Washington Commanders have to do to get some respect? They clearly aren't getting any this week as 7-point road underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens and we'll take advantage once again.

The Commanders are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat the Giants 21-18 on seven field goals and never punted.  The beat the Bengals 38-33 on the road and never punted.  They beat the Cardinals 42-14 on the road as 3.5-point dogs.  And last week they crushed the Browns 34-13 at home as 3-point favorites.

Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry.  He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league.

While the offense is getting all the hype, the improvement of Dan Quinn's defense has been impressive the last two weeks.  They held the Cardinals to just 14 points and the Browns to just 13 points in consecutive weeks.  I don't expect them to stop the Ravens, but I expect them to get enough stops to keep Daniels and company in the game for four quarters.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Ravens. They fought back from three double-digit deficits in the 2H to beat the Bengals 41-38 (OT) on the road last week.  They are a tired team, while the Commanders should be fresh off two straight blowout wins.  The Commanders are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now to boot.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens tend to have letdowns in these spots when they are favored by more than 3 points.  In fact, Jackson is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite of -3.5 or higher in his career.  We saw them lose outright as 8.5-point favorites to the Raiders earlier this season.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Commanders/Ravens OVER 51.5

Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry.  He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league.

Daniels leads a Washington offense that ranks 1st in scoring at 31.0 points per game, 4th in total offense at 392.6 yards per game and 3rd at 6.5 yards per play.  The Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a poor defense, allowing 6.0 yards per play which ranks 27th in the NFL.

The Baltimore Ravens have an elite offense as well this season ranking 2nd in scoring at 29.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 447.6 yards per game and 1st at 6.9 yards per play.  The Ravens rank 25th in the NFL allowing 6.0 yards per play defensively.  Both offenses should have their way Sunday in what will likely be the biggest shootout of the week.  

The Ravens are 4-1 OVER in all games this season and the Commanders are 4-1 OVER in all games this season as well.  Both are dead nuts OVER teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Jaguars/Bears NFL London No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Chicago Bears picked up the tempo last week with a season-high 36% of their snaps coming out of no-huddle.  They now have the 2nd-highest no-huddle rate in the NFL and it is working as Caleb Williams has looking much more comfortable the last three weeks.

Williams threw for 363 yards against the Colts three weeks ago.  He led the Bears to 24 points against the Rams two weeks ago, and last week he led the Bears to a season-high 36 points and 424 total yards.

Of course, the Colts, Rams and Panthers have three of the worst defenses in the NFL.  But now Williams gets another soft defense in the Jaguars, who rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.6 points per game allowed, 31st in total defense at 393.4 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play allowed.  They allow points on 50% of their drives and have allowed the most 20-plus yard plays in the NFL this season.

The Jaguars are going more man-to-man this season and it's not working as they do not have the personnel to do it, especially in the secondary.  They are missing their best cover corner in Tyson Campbell due to injury, which is a big part of the problem.  I expect Williams to have a field day against a Jacksonville defense that allowed 34 points to the Colts and 47 to the Bills.

The Jaguars had their best offensive output of the season last week with 37 points and 497 total yards against the Colts.  Reinforcements are on the way as both TE Evan Engram and WR Gabe Davis are expected to return from injury this week.  Now the Jaguars are at full strength on offense.

They face a Chicago defense that has been good this season, but one that is dealing with a ton of injuries heading into London.  SS Jaquan Brisker is out, CB Tyrique Stevenson is doubtful, and his backup Terell Smith is out.  Trevor Lawrence should be able to take advantage of this Chicago secondary with all the key pieces they will be missing.  This total of 44 is too low for this game Sunday morning.  Bet the OVER in London.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Hawaii +21.5

The Boise State Broncos are getting a lot of hype right now with a 4-1 start and their lone loss coming to Oregon.  RB Ashton Jeanty is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy as well.  With all this hype comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to, and I'll play against them and side with the value on home underdog Hawaii catching more than three touchdowns as a result.

This is a tough spot for Boise State playing for a 4th consecutive week and now having to travel the the island.  Their last three games were at home, and now they have to go on the road where they barely beat Georgia Southern 56-45 and lost to Oregon in their other two road games.

Hawaii is 2-1 at home this season with a 3-point loss to UCLA in their lone defeat.  The Warriors are the much fresher team after having a bye two weeks ago before losing 27-24 at San Diego State last week.  QB Brayden Schager is coming off his two best games of the season throwing for 374 yards and 4 TD in a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa at home and throwing for 272 yards and 3 TD in that loss to San Diego State last week.

Hawaii actually has the better defense in this game.  The Warriors are only allowing 309.4 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They have been very good against the run, allowing 120.6 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry.  That will be key in trying to stop Jeanty and this Boise State rushing attack.

Boise State's defense leaves a lot to be desired and is the clear weakness of the team.  The Broncos allow 402.6 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  They have been horrible against the pass, allowing 278.8 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt.  That makes this a great matchup for the Warriors with their ability to throw the ball on offense and stop the run on defense.  They will never be out of this game.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +3

This is a battle for first place in the Big 12 as the 2-0 Iowa State Cyclones visit the 2-0 West Virginia Mountaineers.  I think the wrong team is favored here.  This is going to be a very hostile atmosphere at night for an 8:00 EST start time, and the Mountaineers are going with their sweet black coal rush jerseys.

Iowa State has benefited from a soft schedule during its 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  The five wins have come against North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor and Iowa.  They have really faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses, and this will be by far their toughest defensive test of the season against this high-octane WVU offense.  The Mountaineers average 6.4 yards pre play, 5.3 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per pass attempt which are all elite numbers.

Iowa State was life and death with Baylor at home last week trailing 21-19 early in the 3rd quarter.  The Cyclones needed a big finish to pull away.  It cost them a lot of injuries on defense as they were down to two starters on defense at one point in the 2H last week.  And these defensive injuries the Cyclones are dealing with aren't getting factored into the spread enough this week.

While the Cyclones will be playing for a 4th consecutive week, the Mountaineers just had a bye two weeks ago before crushing Oklahoma State 38-14 on the road last week.  They made easy work of the Cowboys outgaining them 558 to 225 for the game, or by 333 total yards.  They were able to coast in the 2H after jumping out to a 31-7 halftime lead, and they will still be fresh for this game Saturday as a result.

Home-field advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  West Virginia has played the much tougher schedule and the losses to Pitt and Penn State don't look so bad now considering those two teams are a combined 10-0.  I like the Mountaineers to pull off the upset at home Saturday night.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/LSU ABC ANNIHILATOR on LSU +3.5

I love the spot for the LSU Tigers this week.  They return from their bye, getting two full weeks to rest and prepare to beat the Ole Miss Rebels.  This will also be a night game in Baton Rouge, and there's arguably no bigger home-field advantage in all of college football than a night game in Baton Rouge.

Ole Miss is a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week.  The Rebels are coming off two physical games against Kentucky and South Carolina the last two weeks.  After getting upset 20-17 by Kentucky as 15.5-point home favorites, they rebounded nicely with a 27-3 win at South Carolina last week.

But that was a misleading win against South Carolina.  They only outgained the Gamecocks by 112 yards.  Their offense pretty much died in the second half after losing star receiver Tre Harris to injury.  They scored just 3 points after intermission.  Harris means everything to their offense as he leads the nation with 52 receptions for 885 yards and 5 TD.  He is doubtful to be back this week, making LSU's task defensively to stop this Ole Miss offense much easier.

LSU is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings in Baton Rouge and at least 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings in this series.  I fully expect the Tigers to win this game outright given their rest and preparation advantages coming in.  Brian Kelly is 15-2 SU & 12-5 ATS in his last 17 home games off a bye.  Bet LSU Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Rice OVER 50.5

UTSA is a dead nuts OVER team that plays fast and plays zero defense.  The Roadrunners rank 9th in tempo with 22.6 seconds in between snaps.  They rank 110th in scoring defense allowing 31.6 points per game, and they have benefitted from getting to play Holy Cross and Kennesaw State.

UTSA's offense got going last time out with 456 total yards against a pretty good East Carolina defense after scoring 45 points on Holy Cross.  This is a Rice defense that has faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses, but still allowed 34 points to Sam Houston State, 33 to Houston and 37 to Army.

Rice's offense has been held in check this season due to playing a tough schedule of opposing defenses.  They finally got a reprieve last time out and put up 463 total yards against Charlotte with 209 rushing and 254 passing.  I like Rice QB EJ Warner, who meant everything to Temple last year, and he should have a big game against this UTSA defense.  Rice also plays faster than average ranking 59th in tempo at 26.1 seconds in between snaps.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Florida/Tennessee ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida +14.5

The Florida Gators have been impressive since a 41-17 loss to Miami in the opener.  That loss has kept the Gators undervalued since, and they have responded by going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  The lone loss came to Texas A&M by a final of 33-20, and that loss doesn't look so bad now with A&M blowing out Missouri last week.

The Gators won 45-28 at Mississippi State as 7-point favorites following the loss to A&M.  They had a bye the next week, then returned last week and beat UCF 24-13 as 1-point home underdogs.  That win was mighty impressive from a defensive standpoint as UCF came into that game leading the country in rushing.  Florida held UCF to 108 rushing yards on 40 carries and 273 total yards overall.

Tennessee has been overvalued since a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start against a very soft schedule of Chattanooga, NC State, Kent State and Oklahoma.  The 25-15 win over Oklahoma was far from impressive considering the Sooners were playing with their backup QB and missing almost all of their wide receivers due to injury.  They only managed 345 total yards against Oklahoma's defense.

Last week, Tennessee was upset 19-14 at Arkansas as 14-point favorites.  The Razorbacks outgained the Vols 434 to 334, or by 100 total yards, so there was nothing fluky about it.  That's the second straight game Tennessee's offense has been held in check by a respectable defense, and with the way this Florida defense is trending, I think the Gators can hold them in check as well.  They will stop the run and force the Vols to try and beat them through the air.

Florida hasn't lost by more than 14 points to Tennessee since 1992 which was 32 meetings ago.  That makes for a 31-0 system backing the Gators pertaining to this 14.5-point spread.  The Gators are 17-2 SU in the last 19 meetings.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi State +34

The Georgia Bulldogs are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall since the start of last season.  They are a team that gets a lot of hype for what they did in previous seasons winning the national title, and with that hype comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

Georgia is 1-4 ATS this season and has no business being a 34-point favorite against Mississippi State this week.  This is the ultimate sandwich spot coming off three straight tough SEC games against Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn and with an even bigger showdown with Texas on deck on the road next week.  They won't be concerned with Mississippi State this week at all.

That's going to make it very difficult to cover this 34-point spread.  The Bulldogs want to just get in and get out with a win and try and keep everyone healthy for that game against Texas considering injuries and suspensions have been a big part of Georgia's early struggles this season.

I like the spot for Mississippi State.  The Bulldogs are come off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Jeff Lebby.  He will get the most out of this extra week with his new team.  I also like what I saw from the Bulldogs going into their bye week as they only lost 35-13 at Texas as 37-point underdogs.

Instead of playing at a break-neck pace like they had prior, they slowed things down with freshman QB Michael Van Buren running the offense.  He played well with 144 passing yards on 23 attempts.  I think Mississippi State will deploy the same strategy against Georgia, slowing the game down to try and make it competitive.  Van Buren is now 19 of 34 passing for 244 yards against Texas and Florida, which are two very good defenses.  He won't be phased by Georgia.

24 of the last 25 meetings between Georgia and Mississippi State were decided by 30 points or less, making for a 24-1 system backing the underdog in this one.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Arizona/BYU FOX ANNIHILATOR on BYU -3.5

The BYU Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with upset road wins over SMU and Baylor, as well as an upset home win over Kansas State.  They should be more than 3.5-point home favorites against Arizona this week.

BYU had a bye last week, so the Cougars have had two full weeks to prepare for Arizona and to rest up and get healthy.  Provo is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and the Cougars will have an even bigger home-field advantage with fans excited about the fact that they are in the Top 25 and a Big 12 title contenter.

The spot is much worse for Arizona coming off a pair of physical games at Utah and at home against Texas Tech.  They are getting too much love for their win at Utah, which bogged down in the red zone and blew several scoring opportunities.  They lost 28-22 at home to Texas Tech last week.

These teams have a common opponent that shows BYU is by far the superior team.  Arizona lost 31-7 at Kansas State, while BYU crushed Kansas State 38-9 at home.  The Cougars have the much better defense in this one as well.  They allow just 15.8 points per game, 292.6 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.  Arizona allows 23.6 points per game, 350.8 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.  Bet BYU Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh -3

The Pittsburgh Panthers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  They will eventually be overvalued, but this isn't the spot this week.  The Panthers have impressive wins over Cincinnati, West Virginia and North Carolina with two of those wins coming on the road.  They just had a bye two weeks ago so they will be fresh and ready to go this week.

But this is more of a play against California than it is a play on Pitt.  The Bears had ESPN's College Gameday on campus last week with the Miami Hurricanes coming to town.  They looked well on their way to an upset victory leading 35-10 in the 3rd quarter, but that's when it all went downhill.

The Bears blew that 25-point lead and lost 39-38 on a last-second TD by Miami, which scored the final 21 points of the game in the final 10 minutes to escape with yet another victory.  I just don't see how Cal gets back up off the mat after that loss.  It's the type of loss that beats a team twice.

Now the Bears have the long flight East to Pittsburgh after playing a late-night game that didn't get over until after midnight Pacific time.  They have a tired defense that was on the field for 38 minutes and 86 plays against Miami.  Now they must face a Pitt offense that runs the 4th-fastest tempo in the entire country.

Five-star QB and Alabama transfer Eli Holstein has thrived in this new up-tempo offense.  He is competing 65.5% of his passes for 1,567 yards with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 265 yards and 3 scores.  The Bears won't have the energy to try and defense this offense, and this one has blowout written all over it.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Virginia +7.5

The Louisville Cardinals have been through the gauntlet the last three weeks with three straight games that went down to the wire against SMU, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech.  I question how much they have left in the tank for Virginia this week.

The Cavaliers had a bye two weeks ago before returning to beat Boston College 24-14 as 1.5-point home favorites last week.  Virginia improved to 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS this season and has been an undervalued commodity.  They beat Coastal Carolina 43-24 as 3.5-point road favorites going into their bye, and they beat Wake Forest 31-30 on the road.

Even in their lone loss to Maryland it was a misleading 27-13 home loss.  They were only outgained by 21 yards in the game.  The Terrapins scored 20 unanswered points in the 2H and took advantage of a +4 turnover margin against Virginia.  I like the way the Cavaliers responded in their last two games, especially after falling behind 14-0 to Boston College last week to score the final 24 points of the game.  They have a lot of confidence now and feel like they are a legit ACC contender.

Virginia is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with Louisville with only one loss by more than 7 points.  The spot really favors the home underdog Cavaliers who are the fresher team.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* Tigers/Guardians ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Detroit -114

The Detroit Tigers have the Cleveland Guardians right where they want them.  They needed to steal one game to allow their ace in Tarik Skubal to pitch in two games in this series.  This has played out perfectly, and now I expect the Tigers to take Game 5 behind Skubal tonight.

Skubal ran away with the AL Cy Young this season by going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 31 starts in the regular season with 228 K's in 192 innings.  He has carried over that success into the postseason, firing 13 shutout innings while allowing just 8 base runners.  Skubal has allowed just 2 earned runs in 20 innings in his last three starts against Cleveland after pitching 7 shutout innings with 8 K's and only 3 base runners allowed in a 3-0 victory in Game 2.

The Guardians are scrambling to find a starter and their starting pitchers have been their weakness all season due to injuries.  They just don't have a reliable starter to put opposite Skubal and will likely make this a bullpen game.  The Tigers will be ready, and they have the confidence after coming back from the dead to get to this point to win a winner-take-all Game 5.  Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* Padres/Dodgers NLDS ANNIHILATOR on San Diego +131

No starting pitcher has owned the Dodgers quite like Yu Darvish.  The Padres are in good hands with Darvish going into Game 5 to take this series, and they should not be underdogs with him on the mound.  That's especially the case with Yoshinobu Yamamoto starting opposite him tonight.

Darvish is 5-5 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Dodgers.  He has held them to one earned run in 14 innings in his last two starts against them this season.  That includes one earned run in 7 innings in a 10-2 victory in Game 2.

Yamamoto was the Game 1 starter and he allowed 5 earned runs in 3 innings.  Yamamoto has now allowed 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 innings in three starts against the Padres this season for an 11.00 ERA.  He has also allowed 11 earned runs in 11 innings in his last three starts this season with two of those starts coming against the lowly Rockies.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Padres Friday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Northwestern/Maryland OVER 45

Maryland is a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Terrapins are 4-1 OVER in their five games with 51 or more combined points in four of the five.  That includes their 42-28 loss to Indiana last time out that saw 70 combined points.

The Terrapins boast an offense that puts up 451.4 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play including 304.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 17th in the country.  QB Billy Edwards has been better than expected, completing 72.3% of his passes for 1,444 yards with an 11-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  This is a poor Maryland defense that allowed 27 points to Michigan State, 20 to Villanova and 42 to Indiana.

Northwestern has taken a step back defensively this season and just found itself in a 41-24 shootout last week against Indiana that saw 65 combined points.  QB Lausch has taken over as starting QB and actually gives the Wildcats the threat of the pass.  He threw for 243 yards and 2 TD against a very good Indiana defense last week, while also rushing for 34 yards on 9 carries.

This has been an OVER series with the OVER going 3-1 in the last four meetings with 46 or more combined points in all four, and 55 or more in three of them.  Conditions look perfect for a shootout Friday night with no wind or rain in the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco -3

I like backing elite teams who are motivated.  That will be the case for the San Francisco 49ers Thursday night when they travel to face the Seattle Seahawks.  The 49ers sit at 2-3 on the season but should be 4-1 at worst and possibly 5-0.  If they had the record they deserved, they would be more than 3-point favorites here.

The 49ers absolutely blew two games in the 4th quarter to the Rams and Cardinals.  They led the Cardinals 23-10 at halftime last week and lost 24-23.  They led the Rams 24-14 in the final seven minutes and lost 27-24.  They also lost 23-17 to the Vikings on the road despite outgaining them.

Despite their 2-3 record, the 49ers are clearly still one of the best teams in the NFL when you dive into the numbers.  They rank 2nd in total offense at 407.4 yards per game and 2nd at 6.5 yards per play.  They rank 10th in total defense allowing 307.8 yards per game, so they are outgaining opponents by 100 yards per game.  They have also gotten healthier in recent weeks and are very healthy heading into this game with Seattle.

The Seahawks were overvalued after a 3-0 start against the weakest schedule in the league beating the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins.  I successfully faded them the last two weeks backing the Lions -4 in a 42-29 win over the Seahawks and the Giants +7 in a 29-20 win over Seattle.  I am fading them again this week for many of the same reasons.

This Seattle defense is dealing with a ton of injuries, and their lack of talent and depth has really shown the last two weeks.  They allowed 42 points to the Lions as Jared Goff went a perfect 18-of-18 passing.  They allowed 29 points and 420 total yards to a Giants team last week that was missing WR Malik Nabers and RB Devin Singletary, arguably their two best playmakers on offense.

The Seahawks are without LB Nowsu, LB Onujiogu and FS Reed II.  LB Hall, DT Murhpy and CB Woolen all missed practice on Tuesday and are doubtful.  S Love is limited and will likely play.  Now the Seahawks are on a short week here and gassed defensively after being on the field for over 37 minutes against the Giants on Sunday.  They gave up 175 rushing yards against a Giants team that previously could not run the football.  

Now they must try to tackle the physical Jordan Mason, who has 536 rushing yards and 5.1 per carry through five games in Christian McCaffrey's absence.  The Seahawks got to face four poor offenses in five games and we saw what the Lions did to them scoring 42 points.  The 49ers are on the Lions' level offensively if not better.  I just don't see Seattle getting many stops in this game, and the 49ers will get enough stops to cover this short number.

The 49ers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins coming by 8 points or more.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

15* Yankees/Royals ALDS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The highest-scoring game of this series was Game 1 when Gerrit Cole went up against Michael Wacha.  It was a 6-5 final as both starters got rocked, and it will be more of the same in Game 4 tonight.

Cole allowed 4 runs, 3 earned and 9 base runners in 5 innings to the Royals in Game 1.  He has now allowed 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 17 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Royals.

Wacha allowed 3 earned runs and 7 base runners in 4 innings in Game 1.  Wacha has now allowed 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 22 base runners in 17 innings in his last three starts against the Yankees.  Bet the OVER in Game 4 Thursday.

20* Phillies/Mets NLDS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

This total is too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers tonight.  Both offenses are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings this season with 8 or more combined runs in six of those seven, including in each of the first three games in this series.

Ranger Suarez has been an absolute gas can down the stretch for the Phillies.  Suearez has allowed 15 earned runs and 38 base runners in 17 1/3 innings in his last four starts.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in his last four starts with 8 or more combined runs in all four.  The OVER is 3-0 in Suarez's last three starts against the Mets with 9 or more combined runs in all three.

Jose Quintana pitches to contact with just 135 K's in 170 1/3 innings this season.  The OVER is 3-0 in Quintana's last three starts against the Phillies this season with 11 or more combined runs in all three.  Both lineups have been great against left-handed starters this season to boot.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Phillies/Mets NLDS No-Brainer on OVER 7

This total is too low for these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers tonight.  Both offenses are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings this season with 8 or more combined runs in five of those six, including in each of the first two games of this series.

Aaron Nola struggled down the stretch allowing 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 27 innings in his last five starts for a 5.33 ERA.  Nola allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings of an 11-3 loss to the Mets in his last start against them on September 13th.

Sean Manaea allowed 8 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts for the Mets.  Manaea has not enjoyed facing the Phillies, allowing 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Saints/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 43.5

The Chiefs were already handcuffed offensively when it was announced that WR Hollywood Brown would miss the entire season due to shoulder surgery.  Now they lost their best weapon in WR Rashee Rice to a knee injury and he will not be available for Week 5.  They were already without RB Isaiah Pacheco, who was the heart and soul of the offense.

We saw this last year with the Chiefs limited by injuries offensively having to rely on their defense on their way to winning the Super Bowl.  But that was when they had Rice and Pacheco leading the way.  Now they are without both, and the Chiefs are going to have to rely on an aging Travis Kelce, a rookie in Xavier Worthy and several replacement-level receivers moving forward unless they make a trade.  They are relying on defense now more than ever.

This Kansas City defense has been dynamite in paving the way for a 4-0 start for the Chiefs.  They rank 9th allowing 18.0 points per game despite facing both the Bengals and Ravens, who have two of the best offenses in the NFL.  Now they should have their way with a New Orleans Saints offense that is banged up along the offensive line.  The strength of Kansas City's defense is their front seven, and they will make life very difficult for Drew Brees and company for four quarters in this one.

The Saints have a very good defense and it's what keeps them competitive every year under defensive-minded head coach, Dennis Allen.  The Saints rank 7th in scoring defense at 17.5 points per game.  Keep in mind that number would be even lower if not for two fluky non-offensive touchdowns by the Falcons last week with a tipped interception that was returned for a TD and a muffed punt that was recovered in the end zone for another TD.

Given the Saints having one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL without their best offensive lineman in C Erik McCoy, and the Chiefs being without all of their best weapons, this has the makings of a defensive slug fest Monday night.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Tigers/Guardians ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Detroit -124

The Detroit Tigers are positioned perfectly to upset the Cleveland Guardians in this series. Tarik Skubal will go in Game 2 tonight and in Game 5 if necessary. I trust the AL Cy Young winner to get the job done tonight and get the Tigers back in this series.

Skubal is 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 31 starts this season with 228 K's in 192 innings. He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts, including 2 earned runs or fewer in 12 of those. He has allowed 2 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts against Cleveland.

The Guardians don't have a lot of strength at the top of their rotation, they rely heavily on their bullpen. That's why they are giving Matthew Boyd a start in Game 2, and it's hard to trust this former Tiger. Boyd has allowed 9 runs, 5 earned, and 23 base runners in 11 innings in his last three starts coming in. Bet the Tigers Monday.

20* Cowboys/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh ML -125

The Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL while the Dallas Cowboys have one of the worst.  That's the biggest reason I am on the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night as they host the Cowboys.

The Steelers rank 2nd in scoring defense at 13.2 points per game, 4th in total defense at 261.2 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys rank 26th in scoring defense at 26.0 points per game, 26th in total defense at 355.2 yards per game and 23rd at 5.8 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys are 13th in total offense at 330.8 yards per game while the Steelers are 18th at 317.8 yards per game, so there's not as big of a gap between these offenses as what is being perceived.

The Cowboys were already terrible defensively when they had their two best pass rushers in Micah Parsons and Dexter Lawrence healthy.  But now that's not even the case any more as the Cowboys lost both Lawrence and Parsons to injuries last week against the Giants.  Both will not play this week.  CB Calen Carson is questionable, and they were already without their best CB in DaRon Bland to the IR.  Things are getting worse before they get better for this Dallas defense.

We saw the Cowboys get shredded by a Ravens team that runs a similar read-option offense to the Steelers two weeks ago.  The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on them.  Justin Fields and company will be able to get whatever they want on the ground.  Fields is playing well, completing 70.6% of his passes with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 145 yards and 3 scores through four games.  He threw for 312 yards and a TD in trying to lead the comeback against the Colts last week to prove he can do it when he has to throw it.

The Cowboys were fortunate to beat the lowly Giants 20-15 last week.  Daniel Jones didn't get much help from his receivers with several key drops that prevented points.  He went 29-of-40 passing for 281 yards against the Cowboys.  The Giants held this Dallas offense in check as well with just 293 total yards.  This is a one-dimensional Dallas offense that cannot run the football, which bodes well for the Steelers, who rank 8th in the NFL in pass defense allowing just 174.5 yards per game through the air.  This is a terrible matchup for the injury-ravaged Cowboys.  Mike Tomlin is 8-2 ATS in his last 10 games off a loss.  Bet the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +6

This is a terrible spot for the Seattle Seahawks.  They just played the late game on Monday Night Football against the Detroit Lions.  Now they have to travel back to Seattle and play on a short week hosting the New York Giants Sunday afternoon.

Making matters worse is this is a sandwich spot for the Seahawks.  They have an even bigger game on deck against the 49ers on Thursday and some of their focus will be on that game, especially when it comes to handling all their injuries.  They won't be fully focused on the Giants this week, and as a result I think they are on upset alert.

This is a very favorable spot for the Giants, who played the Cowboys last Thursday.  So they have had a mini bye week coming into this one to get healthy and prepared to face the Seahawks.  Sitting at 1-3 on the season, the Giants are looking at this game as a must-win.  The Seahawks sit at 3-1 and alone in first place in the NFC West, so they aren't looking at this as a must-win.

The Seahawks are a fraudulent team that got off to a 3-0 start against the easiest schedule in the NFL.  They beat the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix 26-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 1.  They needed OT to beat the Patriots 23-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 2.  Then they had to fly all the way back to Seattle and took advantage of a short-handed Dolphins team in a 24-3 victory as 4-point favorites.  The Dolphins were starting Skyler Thompson at QB, and he got hurt and they were down to third-stringer Tim Boyle in the second half.

That's why I faded them last week and took the Lions -4.  It was a lot of travel for the Seahawks and they weren't as good as their 3-0 record.  That proved to be the case as the Lions beat them 42-29.  Jared Goff went a perfect 18-of-18 passing for 292 yards and two touchdowns against what is a really banged up, tired Seattle defense that is lacking depth.

Five starters are questionable heading into this one in DE Leonard Williams, LB Uchenna Nwosu, LB Jerome Baker, LB Boye Mafe and FS Julian Love.  FS Jerrick Reed II is out, NT Cameron Young is out and DE Byron Murphy II is questionable.  The Seahawks have a very poor offensive line, and the strength of the Giants is their defensive line, so they will make life tough on Geno Smith in this one.

I like what I've seen from Daniel Jones the last three weeks.  After a 28-6 loss to Minnesota in Week 1 which doesn't look as bad now with the Vikings sitting at 4-0 with wins over the Packers, 49ers and Texans since, the Giants have been much more competitive the last three weeks.  

They lost 21-18 at Washington only because they lost their FG kicker to injury prior to the game, and it cost them at least a shot at OT and likely a win.  They won 21-15 at Cleveland as 6.5-point dogs in Week 2 even after spotting the Browns a TD to start the game after a fumbled KO return.  They gave the Cowboys all they wanted last week in a 20-15 loss as 5.5-point home dogs, and drops by New York receivers were the culprit.  They held Dallas' high-powered offense to less than 300 total yards.

The Giants have historically been a much better road team than a home team over the last decade-plus, and that's the case again this season.  They were very competitive against the Commanders and Browns on the road and performed poorly against the Vikings and Cowboys at home.  The New York fans just aren't that gracious to this team at home, and sometimes it's just better for these players to get away from it by going on the road.

The Giants are extremely healthy compared to most teams at this point in the season.  Star WR Malik Nabers did suffer a concussion against the Cowboys last week, but the average time missed is 8 days for concussions, and since they played last Thursday they will have 10 days in between games.  He should be back, and he has made all the difference for this offense.  Nabers has 35 receptions for 386 yards and 3 TD through four games.  The Giants are good enough to give the Seahawks a run for their money considering the good spot for them and the awful spot for the home team.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Commanders -3

The Washington Commanders delivered 16 straight scoring drives beginning from Week 1 through their first two drives of Week 4 against Arizona.  They have punted just once in the last three weeks.  They have three straight wins over the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals and they are much better than they get credit for.

Jayden Daniels has delivered more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through his first four games.  Daniels set the NFL record with 82.1% completions through the first four weeks of the season.  He has thrown for 897 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he has rushed for 218 yards and 4 scores to boot.  Daniels is making all the right decisions right now.

The same cannot be said for Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns.  They are 1-3 this season with their lone win coming against the only remaining winless team in the Jacksonville Jaguars.  They weren't able to beat a depleted Raiders team last week that was without their two best players in WR Davante Adamas and DE Maxx Crosby.  They lost 20-16 despite getting lucky fumble return TD on defense.

Watson has been abysmal.  He is averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  Of course, it hurts that his offensive line is more banged up than any other offensive line in the league.  Seven offensive linemen are on the injury report as they have been without LT Jedrick Willis, RT Zack Conklin and now they lost C Ethan Pocic to an injury against the Raiders.  It's possible some guys return this week, but even if they do I still like the Commanders.

Washington has compiled a 3-1 record despite playing three of their first four games on the road.  They are 1-0 at home scoring on all seven drives against the Giants.  Fans are thirsty for a winner in Washington, and they will turn out to support Daniels and company in a big way Sunday afternoon.  It will be the best home-field advantage the Commanders have had since Robert Griffin III was stealing the show in his prime.

Cleveland had the worst scoring defense in the entire NFL on the road last season.  The Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the NFL heading into their game with Cleveland last week.  They promptly rushed for 152 yards and 5.2 per carry against Cleveland last week.  The Commanders are going to be able to run it up the middle on the Browns, and that is going to open the field for Daniels to continue to thrive.  

Oddsmakers are simply too slow to adjust to the fact that the Commanders are a contender, while the Browns are a dead team walking with all their injuries. It seems as though teammates don't even like Deshaun Watson, which is understandable.  This line should be much closer to -7 than -3.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Panthers/Bears OVER 42

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team right now with Andy Dalton at quarterback and arguably the worst defense in the NFL.  The Panthers combined for 58 points with the Bengals last week and 58 points with the Raiders in the game prior in Dalton's two starts at quarterback.

They put up 36 points on the Raiders with 437 total yards as Dalton threw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns.  They put up 24 points on the Bengals behind 375 total yards and 220 passing and 2 touchdowns from Darnold.  Simply put, Dave Canales finally has a competent quarterback to run his offense.

But the Panthers are going to have to win shootouts if they are going to be competitive.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 32.2 points per game.  Things are getting worse before they get better due to injuries.  They just lost LB Shaq Thomspn to injury last week.  Fellow LB Josey Jewell is questionable after suffering an injury.  NT Shy Tuttle is questionable after missing the last couple games.  DE Derrick Brown is on IR, and four key secondary pieces are on IR.

Chicago QB Caleb Williams is in line for his best game yet this week.  He went 17-of-23 passing against a bad Rams defense last week and led the Bears to 24 points.  He just got WR Keenan Allen back from injury and now has his full compliment of weapons.  De'Andre Swift finally got going with 93 rushing yards on 16 attempts last week.  I think the Bears can get to 24-plus in this one, and the Panthers should get 20-plus, thus this 42-point total is too low.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Commanders OVER 44

The Washington Commanders delivered 16 straight scoring drives beginning from Week 1 through their first two drives of Week 4 against Arizona.  They have punted just once in the last three weeks.  They have three straight wins over the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals and they are much better than they get credit for.

Jayden Daniels has delivered more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through his first four games.  Daniels set the NFL record with 82.1% completions through the first four weeks of the season.  He has thrown for 897 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he has rushed for 218 yards and 4 scores to boot.  Daniels is making all the right decisions right now.

Cleveland had the worst scoring defense in the entire NFL on the road last season.  The Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the NFL heading into their game with Cleveland last week.  They promptly rushed for 152 yards and 5.2 per carry against Cleveland last week.  The Commanders are going to be able to run it up the middle on the Browns, and that is going to open the field for Daniels to continue to thrive.

No question this Cleveland offense hasn't looked good, and a lot of that has to do with offensive line injuries and missing TD David Njoku.  They could get some pieces back on the offensive line this week, plus Njoku is expected to return.  They should have their best offensive output of the season against a Washington defense that ranks 25th in scoring at 25.5 points per game, 27th in total defense at 357.0 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play allowed.  

Washington is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They are 3-1 OVER in all games this season with 56 or more combined points in the three overs.  They would be 4-0 OVER if not for the Giants losing their kicker in a game that would have been tied 21-21 at the end of regulation if the Giants kicked extra points on all three of their TD's.  I see Washington getting to at least 27 points and Cleveland getting to at least 20 in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

15* Padres/Dodgers FS1 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off here when the San Diego Padres meet the Los Angeles Dodgers for Game 1 of this series Saturday. This total of 7.5 is too low for a game involving these two offenses.

Dylan Cease just faced the Dodgers on September 25th. He allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings, and the Dodgers will get to him again tonight using that familiarity to their advantage after just seeing him.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has allowed 6 earned runs in 8 innings in his last two starts. Yamamoto has not been able to figure out the Padres, allowing 8 earned runs in 6 innings in two starts against them in 2024. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawaii/San Diego State OVER 46.5

San Diego State made a great hire bringing in one of the best offensive minds in the country in former Kent State head coach Sean Lewis.  He is the architect of the 'Flash Fast' offense that turned around the Golden Flashes and put their name on the map.

It was always going to take some time for these players to get accustomed to this offense, and they weren't done any favors with a brutal schedule to start facing two elite defenses in Oregon State and California in two of their first three games.

But they got a bye after those two games and grew a lot on that bye week.  They came back last week and had a solid offensive output with 364 total yards against Central Michigan.  But they allowed 452 yards to the Chippewas and this is a leaky defense that can be exposed.  That game was much lower scoring than it should have been with a 22-21 final, and I think that is providing us some line value on the OVER this week.

In fact, these teams are a combined 7-1 to the under this season, which is why this total has been set so low.  We will take advantage.  Hawaii also had a tough schedule to start with losses to UCLA and Sam Houston State, which looks vastly improved this season.  They finally got their offense going last time out in a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa.  They put up 528 total yards, and they have had a bye since to get even better.

San Diego State beat Hawaii 41-34 in an absolute shootout last year that saw 75 combined points.  All we need is 47-plus here to cash this OVER.  And a sneaky reason I'm on the OVER is because both offenses play fast.  San Diego State ranks 8th in tempo at 22.3 seconds between plays while Hawaii ranks 34th at 24.9 seconds.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Michigan/Washington NBC No-Brainer on Washington ML -145

The Washington Huskies should be 5-0 right now.  If they were 5-0 like they should be, they would be bigger favorites here against Michigan.  We'll take advantage of this line value and back the Huskies on the Money Line Saturday night.

I say Washington should be 5-0 because they lost 24-19 to Washington State on a neutral despite outgaining them 452 to 381, or by 71 total yards.  But that fluky loss was nothing compared to what happened against Rutgers on last Friday.  Washington lost 21-18 at Rutgers despite outgaining the Scarlet Knights 521 to 299, or by 222 total yards.  

The Huskies will be looking to take out their frustration on the Wolverines at home in Seattle where it will be a hostile atmosphere Saturday night.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it's even better at night.  They also want revenge from losing to Michigan in the National Championship last year.  While both teams are down compared to those teams last year, Washington is a lot less down than Michigan is this season.

Washington has elite numbers.  The Huskies rank 20th in total offense at 469.4 yards per game and 18th at 7.2 yards per play.  They rank 10th in total defense at 249.8 yards per game and 8th at 4.1 yards per play.  QB Will Rogers is completing 74.8% of his passes for 1,354 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio.

While Michigan's defense is solid once again, keep in mind they allowed 31 points to Texas, 24 to Minnesota, 24 to USC and 18 to Arkansas State the last four weeks.  They are 1-4 ATS, and while it's partly due to the defense taking a step back, it's mostly due to not having a quarterback or a passing game on offense.

The Wolverins rank 130th in the country in passing at 115.4 yards per game.  Their one-dimensional approach will not work against Washington, which allows just 3.7 yards per carry this season.  The Huskies will stack the box and force QB Alex Orji to try and beat them.  Orji is averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt this season.

This will be the first road game of the season for the Wolverines as they somehow were allowed to schedule five straight home games to open the season.  It will not go well for Orji and the Wolverines in Seattle Saturday night.  Bet Washington on the Money Line.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nevada/San Jose State OVER 48.5

San Jose State's offense looks vastly improved this season.  They just put up 52 points on Washington State in an absolute OT thriller.  They now rank 38th in scoring offense at 35.5 points per game.  They also play fast ranking 21st in seconds per play, which is an over bettors' dream.

Nevada has a much better offense than most expected as well.  The Wolf Pack are averaging 379 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  They rush for 193.4 yards per game and 5.0 per carry, and San Jose State allows 155.2 rushing yards per game.  They will have success on the ground which will open up their improved passing game.

Nevada ranks 94th allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense.  San Jose State will keep the pedal to the metal for four quarters, and Nevada will have to try and keep up.  Both teams are fresh coming off bye weeks and will be looking to get up and down offensively.  This total should not be less than 50 given San Jose State's profile as a prolific, fast-paced offense controlling the tempo playing at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +4.5

The spot really favors the West Virginia Mountaineers in this one.  They are coming off their bye week, while Oklahoma State will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and has been through the gauntlet.  I question how much the Cowboys have left in the tank this week as a result.

Oklahoma State beat Arkansas 39-31 in OT four weeks ago despite getting outgained by nearly 300 yards.  They went on the road and beat a bad Tulsa team 45-10 three weeks ago before returning home to face Utah.  They trailed 22-3 to the Utes before making it interesting in garbage time in a misleading 22-19 loss.  And last week they were crushed 42-20 at Kansas State.

Utah and Kansas State both play a physical brand of football that takes a lot out of the opponent.  After having to face both those teams in consecutive weeks, I think Oklahoma State is battered and bruised right now and won't be ready for this fresh WVU team.  I also just think the Cowboys were grossly overvalued coming into the season and remain overvalued still today.

The Cowboys had a miracle run to the Big 12 Championship Game last year winning close game after close game.  They have been exposed this season, and really should be 2-3 instead of 3-2 because they should have lost to Arkansas.  Now with two Big 12 losses already, their chances of winning the conference title are slim to none.

Oklahoma State has no running game on offense, and they have one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Cowboys rank 126th in total defense at 480.6 yards per game allowed.  West Virginia has played a similarly difficult schedule and has much better numbers than the Cowboys.  

They lost to Penn State and Pittsburgh before topping Kansas.  They had no business losing to Pitt blowing a 10-point lead in the final three minutes.  They rebounded nicely against the Jayhawks to give them positive momentum heading into their bye, and they have all their goals in front of them at 1-0 in Big 12 play now.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn +24.5

Auburn's 2-3 record has them way undervalued right now.  The Tigers are certainly one of the best 2-3 teams in the history of college football.  Their three losses all came by 10 points or less, and they had way better stats than their opponents in two of the three defeats.

Auburn ranks 23rd in the country in total offense at 466 yards per game and 8th at 7.6 yards per play.  The Tigers rank 50th in total defense at 329 yards per game and 39th at 4.8 yards per play.  So they are outgaining their opponents by 137 yards per game and a whopping 2.8 yards per play, which are the numbers of a 4-1 or 5-0 team and not one that is 2-3.  We'll take advantage of Auburn being undervalued this week.

It won't take much for Auburn to get back up off the mat this week to face Georgia, which have been the kings of college football over the last few seasons.  But it will take a lot for Georgia to get back up off the mat to face Auburn after a deflating 41-34 loss at Alabama last week.  The Bulldogs fought all they way back from a 28-0 deficit to take a 34-33 lead, only to allow another bomb and a game-winner by Alabama before throwing an INT in the end zone to end it going in for the tie.

It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  This Georgia team just isn't as good as the one they put on the field the last three seasons.  They have offensive line problems, Carson Beck is lacking weapons and making bad throws, and their defense is leaky.  They only beat Kentucky 13-12 as 21.5-point favorites the game before Alabama.  They should not be 24.5-point favorites against this underrated Auburn team.

Auburn took Georgia to the wire last season in a 27-20 loss as 14-point home underdogs.  And Auburn is better this season than they were last year, while Georgia isn't as good.  The value is too good to pass up here.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on East Carolina/Charlotte OVER 46.5

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play.  They rank 3rd in the country in tempo averaging 21.2 seconds in between snaps.  It means their defense is going to be on the field a lot, and that defense has been exposed the last couple weeks.

They blew a 17-point lead and lost 35-24 to Liberty two weeks ago.  Last week, they gave up 456 total yards to what was a previously dead UTSA offense and were fortunate to get out with a 30-20 victory.  Charlotte is in line for one of its best offensive outputs of the season this week.

East Carolina could score a season high as well against a Charlotte defense that ranks 118th in scoring at 33.2 points per game, 121st in total defense at 453.2 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.  It was going to take some time for this ECU offense to gel in the new Air Raid attack, and it looks like they have the last few weeks.

Both defenses are tired right now playing for a 6th consecutive week.  I think the offenses really have an advantage here in what will be a fast-paced game, and there's no way this total should be set below 50.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana -13.5

Indiana is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and would be 5-0 ATS against the opening line.  The Hoosiers are an absolute wagon this season and one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have been grossly undervalued and continue to be undervalued this week as only 13.5-point favorites against a Northwestern team that doesn't have the offense to keep up.

Indiana won its first four games by a combined score of 202-37.  The Hoosiers took a step up in class last week and handled Maryland 42-28 as 7.5-point favorites.  They won and covered despite being -4 in turnovers! That just shows the potential of this team.

Indiana has no weaknesses.  The Hoosiers rank 6th in scoring offense at 48.8 points per game, 11th in total offense at 513 yards per game and 10th at 7.6 yards per play.  They rank 19th in scoring defense at 13.0 points per game, 10th in total defense at 239.6 yards per game and 15th at 4.2 yards per play.  They are outgaining teams by nearly 300 yards per game and a whopping 3.4 yards per play.

Northwestern has another good defense this season, but the Wildcats are even worse off offensively than they were last year.  They rank 119th in scoring offense at 17.2 points per game, 121st in total offense at 294.5 yard per game and 121st at 4.6 yards per play.  They have faced three poor offenses in Miami Ohio, Duke and Eastern Illinois before losing 24-5 to Washington.  

The Wildcats managed just 102 total yards and gave up 391 to Washington, so that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  I think we see a similar blowout here in Indiana's favor, except the Hoosiers will score more than 24.  They should be fully focused knowing they get to rest next week with a bye on deck.  The Wildcats have one of the worst home-field advantages in the country.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Army -10.5

The Army Black Knights are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season and taking no prisoners.  They went 6-6 each of the last two seasons and were not invited to a bowl game.  That's why there will be no letdowns with this team until they get that elusive 7th win.

Army beat Lehigh 42-7 as a 32-point favorite, FAU 24-7 as a 1-point dog, Rice 37-14 as a 7.5-point favorite and Temple 42-14 as 11.5-point favorites.  There was nothing fluky about any of those wins.  They have one of their best offenses in program history, plus one of their best defenses as well.

Army ranks 1st in the entire country in rushing at 371.2 yards per game, but they also have more of a passing element this season averaging 73.2 passing yards per game and 9.5 yards per attempt.  QB Bryson Daily is one of the best QB's in school history.  He has rushed for 492 yards and 8 TD while averaging 6.0 per carry, and this team really follows him into battle with how big of a warrior he is seeking out contact.

I've been equally impressed with this Army defense.  The Black Knights 7th in scoring defense at 10.5 points per game and 13th in total defense at 258.2 yards per game.  They held what was previously a high-powered Temple offense since switching over to Evan Simon at QB to just 14 points last Thursday.  Now the Black Knights have had two extra days to rest and recover and get ready to crush Tulsa.

Tulsa is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week.  The Golden Hurricane are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS this season.  They have been through the gauntlet the last four weeks.  After losing 28-24 at Arkansas State, they were crushed 45-10 at home by Oklahoma State.  Then they had to go back on the road and were fortunate to escape with a 23-20 (OT) win at Louisiana Tech.  And last week they went on the road again and got crushed 52-20 at North Texas.

I think we see a similar result here to the Oklahoma State and North Texas games.  I would argue Army would beat both of those teams, and they both outscored Tulsa 97-30 in their two wins.  It's a Tulsa defense that ranks 105th in the country allowing 34.6 points per game.  You think they want to try to tackle Daily and these physical Army backs with how drained they are already?  The answer is no.  This one will get away from them in a hurry.  Bet Army Saturday.

25* Service Academy GAME OF THE YEAR on Navy -9.5

The Navy Midshipmen are an absolute wagon offensively this season.  This is probably the best offense they've ever had, and a lot of it has to do with former Mercer offensive coordinator Drew Cronic, who is a name to watch in the coming years.

Navy is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season behind an offense that ranks 11th in scoring at 46.0 points per game, 24th in total offense at 466 yards per game and 5th at 7.8 yards per play.  They have more balance this year rushing for 287 yards per game and throwing for 179 yards per game.  They put up 56 points and 659 total yards on a respectable Memphis defense two weeks ago.

Air Force is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS this season.  The Falcons have one of the worst offenses in program history.  They rank 131st in scoring at 12.5 points per game, 130th in total offense at 243 yards per game and 132nd at 3.8 yards per play.  This despite facing a pretty soft schedule beating Merrimack 21-6 as a 30-point favorite, losing 17-7 at home to San Jose State as a 3-point favorite, losing 31-3 at Baylor as a 17-point dog and losing 31-19 at Wyoming as a 4-point favorite.

That effort at Wyoming was very alarming for a number of reasons.  The Falcons were coming off their bye week so they had two weeks to prepare.  And this Wyoming team is hot garbage.  The Cowboys were 0-4 previously including a 48-7 loss to Arizona State, a 17-13 home loss to FCS Idaho, a 44-17 loss at North Texas and a 34-14 home loss to BYU.

Navy will show no mercy here and will keep pouring on the points considering they will be playing with quadruple revenge with four straight losses to Air Force in this series.  It's time for the Midshipmen to the return the favor in blowout fashion.  The Falcons simply cannot keep up with the Midsphipmen offensively in this one.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* Syracuse/UNLV FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNLV -6.5

The UNLV Rebels showed how much more potent they can be with Hajj-Malik Williams at quarterback in their 59-14 beat down of Fresno State last week.  They finally have a passing game as Williams completed 13-of-16 passes for 182 yards and 3 touchdowns, and he proved he can handle the load on the ground as well with 119 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries.

But this UNLV defense being improved is the reason they are a contender to make the 12-team playoff.  The Rebels rank 20th in the country in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game.  They are 30th in total defense at 309.5 yards per game and they only allow 4.8 yards per play as well.

This is a much more favorable spot for UNLV than it is for Syracuse.  The Rebels had a bye prior to last week and then got to host Fresno State last week.  They have been home for three straight weeks.  Syracuse has played each of the last two weeks at home against Stanford and Holy Cross, actually getting upset by the Cardinal on Friday Night two weeks ago.  Now they have to travel all the way out West to Las Vegas and play on a short week.

This will be the first road game of the season for Syracuse.  They have benefited from a very soft home schedule of Ohio, Georgia Tech, Stanford and Holy Cross.  This will be by far their stiffest test of the season, and I don't expect them to handle it very well.  Syracuse is just 12-34 SU in its last 46 road games over the last nine seasons.  It's a tough spot for a first-year head coach trying to get his troops ready in time to face this red-hot UNLV team.

UNLV is now 18-4 ATS in 22 games under current head coach Barry Odom.  The books just cannot seem to catch up to how good this team really is.  Bet UNLV Friday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +10.5

The spot really favors the UTEP Miners Thursday night.  They should not be catching double-digits given the spot being so heavily in their favor tonight, and we'll take advantage.

UTEP has a first-year head coach in Scotty Walden who comes over from Austin Peay and brought several of his players with him.  But the leftover players still needed to learn his systems, and it was going to take some time.  Well, UTEP got a bye last week, and bye weeks are more beneficial to first-year coaches than any other coaches.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on UTEP after opening 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS against a pretty difficult schedule.  Three of the losses came on the road to Nebraska, Liberty and Colorado State.  Nebraska is one of the best teams in the Big Ten, Liberty is a team that many feel will go unbeaten and make the four-team playoff, and Colorado State is no pushover.

After giving Liberty all they wanted in a 28-10 loss as 24-point dogs, UTEP put up a good fight in a 27-17 loss at Colorado State as 9-point dogs last time out.  The Miners made a switch at QB midway through that game and went to veteran Cade McConnell, who injected life into this offense going 19-of-29 for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns.  McConnell will be the starter moving forward, and getting the bye week to take all the first-team reps will be greatly beneficial to him and this offense.

But this play is as much a fade of Sam Houston State as anything.  The Bearkats are grossly overvalued right now after starting 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS, and they are in the ultimate letdown spot.  Three wins came against Rice, Hawaii and New Mexico State with a 45-14 loss at UCF.  Those first three teams are three of the worst in all of college football.

No question the 40-39 win over Texas State last Saturday was impressive.  The Bearkats came back from a 22-0 deficit to beat the Bobcats 40-39 on a last-second field goal.  They used a ton of energy to come back and pull off that upset against their in-state rivals, and now I question how much they will have left in the tank.  

The Bearkats will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and are now on a short week to boot, only getting 4 days to recover in between games.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat 0-4 UTEP this week in this clear flat spot.  QB Hunter Watson rushed 27 times for 105 yards in that win and has to at least be a little banged up with how much they use him in the running game.  The Miners are live underdogs here tonight.  Bet UTEP Thursday.

15* Bucs/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta ML -120

I like the spot for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They sit at 2-2 on the season trailing the Tampa Bay Bucs (3-1) for first place in the NFC South.  They don't want to fall essentially three games behind with a loss, so they will be max motivated for a win.

I like the fact that the Falcons played at home on Sunday and get to stay at home, so there is no travel involved.  That is crucial for them on this short week.  The Bucs don't have the same luxury having to travel up from Tampa Bay, and it's always tougher on the road team for these short week games.

The Falcons are also a lot healthier than the Bucs right now.  It looks like the Falcons will get RT Kaleb McGary back this week as he returned to practice on a limited basis Tuesday.  RB Bijan Robinson and WR Ray-Ray McCloud III also got in limited practices.  The only key player the Falcons will likely be missing is ILB Troy Anderson, who missed practice Tuesday after suffering a knee injury last week.

The Bucs have nine starters either questionable or out, and four backups either questionable or out.  WR Jalen McMillan, WR Trey Palmer, DL Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield all did not practice on Tuesday and are likely out.  WR Mike Williams, OT Tristan Wirfs and NT Vita Vea all got in limited practices and are likely to go.  The Bucs placed ILB SirVocea Dennis on injured reserve.

The Bucs are getting too much respect for beating the Eagles 33-16 last week.  That was an Eagles team missing their two best weapons in AJ Brown and DaVante Smith plus their best offensive linemen in LT Lane Johnson.  The Eagles were handicapped offensively and it showed.  Keep in mind the Bucs lost to the Broncos 26-7 the previous week, and they were outgained by 463 to 216 by the Lions in a fraudulent Week 2 win.  They have benefited from playing three of their first four games at home.

The Falcons have been impressive the last three weeks.  They upset the Eagles 22-21 on the road in Week 2, and that was an Eagles team that was a lot healthier at the time than the one the Bucs faced last week.  They were a missed pass interference call away from likely upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs at home in a 22-17 defeat.  And last week they gutted out a 26-24 home win over the New Orleans Saints.  They got two non-offensive touchdowns in the win, but they still outgained the Saints 6.2 to 5.2 yards per play for the game, so it wasn't as fluky as a lot of people are making it out to be.

The motivation, the situation and the injuries favor Atlanta in this one.  Bet the Falcons on the Money Line Thursday.