20* Yankees/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

The Yankees rank 1st in baseball scoring 5.9 runs per game this season.  They have scored a total of 45 runs in their last five games for an average of 9.0 runs per game.  They are capable of covering this total on their own.  But the Mariners are improved offensively this season scoring 4.9 runs per game which ranks 6th in baseball.

Emerson Hancock is the weak link in this Seattle rotation.  He is 1-1 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in five starts this season.  Hancock is 5-5 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 20 career starts.  Clarke Schmidt is 0-1 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in four starts for the Yankees this season.  

The Yankees are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 12 or more combined runs in four of those five games.  The Mariners are 16-3 OVER in their last 19 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 17 of those 19 games, including 9 or more combined runs in 15 of them.  The Mariners are Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-125)

The Rockies are 7-33 this season scoring just 3.3 runs per game and allowing 6.5 runs per game.  Their -128 run differential is far and away the worst mark in baseball.  They are 1-8 in their last nine games overall with all eight losses coming by 2 runs or more.

Getting the Rangers as only -125 favorites to win this game by two runs or more today is a nice value.  That's especially the case with their big advantage on the mound, plus they are heating up at the plate scoring 16 runs in their last two games and 6 runs or more in four of their last seven games.

Tyler Mahle is 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in eight starts for the Rangers this season.  He'll be opposed by Chase Dollander, who is 2-3 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in six starts for the Rockies this season while allowing 24 earned runs and 8 homers in 28 innings.  Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Marlins/Cubs OVER 8.5

The Chicago Cubs have one of the most improved offenses in baseball this season.  They rank 2nd in the majors scoring 5.7 runs per game trailing only the Yankees in that department.  The Marlins are scoring 4.2 runs per game but rank 29th in the majors allowing 6.0 runs per game.  These teams are a combined 48-28 OVER in all games this season.

The OVER is 19-8 in Marlins last 27 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 19 of those 27 games.  This total of 8.5 is too low for a game involving the Marlins and Cubs right now.

The Cubs are capable of covering this total on their own against Cal Quantrill, who has been one of the worst starters in baseball.  Quantrill went 4-7 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 19 starts in 2023 and 8-11 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 29 starts in 2024.  He is 2-3 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 25 earned runs and 53 base runners in 31 2/3 innings.

Colin Rea is clearly due some regression for the Cubs.  He went 6-6 with a 4.55 ERA in 22 starts and four relief appearances for the Brewers in 2023 and 12-6 with a 4.29 ERA in 27 starts and five relief appearances in 2024.  Rea allowed 4 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings to the Giants in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Dodgers are 10-4 in their last 14 games while scoring a total of 104 runs in those 14 games for an average of 7.4 runs per game.  They are showing once again they have one of the best offenses in baseball this season.  The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own. While the Dodgers rank 3rd in baseball scoring 5.5 runs per game, the Diamondbacks are not far behind ranking 5th in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game.

Tony Gonsolin hasn't pitched since 2023 and has made just two starts for the Dodgers this season and has been shaky in both despite getting to face the lowly Marlins.  Zac Gallen consistenly gets too much respect for the Diamondbacks.  He has allowed 8 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers that both went OVER the total with 19 and 12 combined runs.

This has been an OVER series.  The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and 10-3 in the last 13 meetings with 10 or more combined runs in 10 of those 13 meetings.  The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have combined for at least 11 runs in eight of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Blue Jays/Mariners OVER 8

The Seattle Mariners are quietly a dead nuts OVER team this season with an improved offense and a worse pitching staff.  They rank 6th in baseball scoring 5.0 runs per game and are 23-13-2 OVER in all games this season.

The Blue Jays are heating up at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in three consecutive games and 4 runs or more in eight of their last 10 games with a low of 3 runs during this stretch.  The Mariners are capable of covering this total on their own.

Jose Urena is 44-77 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his career in the big leagues with just 640 K's in 955 2/3 innings.  Urena has posted a 8.59 ERA and 1.77 WHIP thus far this season while allowing 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 13 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.  

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 9 or more combined runs in six of those seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Angels OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Orioles and Angels today.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.  Tyler Anderson is due some regression for the Angels, so expect the Orioles to do the heavy lifting for us today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/A's OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket between the Yankees and A's today.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center with temps in the 70's at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in Sacramento today.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the A's and Yankees.  They combined for 12 runs in Game 1 and 18 runs in Game 2 of this series.  The Yankees will likely make this a bullpen game, while the A's will go with Luis Severino.  It should be another high-scoring game today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the better team in this series despite being down 2-1.  They easily could have won both games they lost, blowing a double-digit late in Game 1 and losing in OT in Game 3.  In between was a 149-106 blowout in Game 2 that flashed their potential.  So they have actually outscored the Nuggets by 41 points at the end of regulation in this series despite being down 2-1.

This is where I think the lack of bench hurts the Nuggets.  They had to play 7 games last series, and they haven't had more than one day off in between games since that Game 7.  This will now be an early 3:30 EST afternoon start after finishing the late game in OT on Friday night.  All five starters played at least 43 minutes for the Nuggets in Game 3.

The Thunder shot 40-of-104 (38%) from the field and 9-of-35 (26%) from 3-point range in Game 3 and still went to OT with the Nuggets.  They are clearly due some positive shooting regression, and I expect them to make the proper adjustments to come away with a win and cover in Game 4 today to even this series.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Padres/Rockies OVER 11.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 11.5 ticket between the Padres and Rockies today.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center inside the most hitter-friendly park in baseball at Coors Field in Denver.

The weather has been great in Colorado this week which is a big reason they are 5-0 OVER in their last five home games combining for 14, 12 and 12 runs with the Tigers, and 22 runs with the Padres in Game 1 and 21 runs in Game 2 of this series thus far.  Their bullpen is extremely taxed after having to play a double-header on Thursday against the Tigers.

The Padres will do the heavy lifting again in us cashing this OVER ticket.  They will crush German Marquez, who is 0-6 with a 9.90 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 33 earned runs in 30 innings.  Marquez allowed 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Padres this season on April 11th.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on San Diego Padres -1.5 (-192)

The San Diego Padres had Thursday off while the Colorado Rockies were playing a double-header with the Detroit Tigers.  That rest advantage is a big reason I was on the Padres in a 13-9 victory in Game 1, and it's a big reason I was on them again in their 21-0 victory in Game 2.  I'll hop on them again for Game 3 for many of the same reasons today.

The Tigers mopped the floor with the Rockies last series.  They won 10-2 in Game 1 and 11-1 in Game 2 of the double-header Thursday to outscore the Rockies 21-3 and absolutely tax their bullpen in the process.  Add to that their 8-6 loss in extra innings on Wednesday, plus the 13-9 loss in Game 1 and the 21-0 loss in Game 2 to the Padres, and this Colorado bullpen is extremely taxed.

The Rockies are 6-33 this season scoring just 3.2 runs per game and allowing 6.6 runs per game.  Their -134 run differential is far and away the worst mark in baseball.  The Padres are 25-13 this season scoring 4.7 runs per game and allowing 3.2 runs per game.  They have a +54 run differential on the season.

The Padres will crush German Marquez, who is 0-6 with a 9.90 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 33 earned runs in 30 innings.  Marquez allowed 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Padres this season on April 11th.

The Padres have a big advantage on the mound behind Nick Pivetta, who is 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Pivetta pitched 7 shutout innings with 10 K's opposite Marquez in a 8-0 victory over the Rockies at home on April 11th earlier this season.  Bet the Padres on the Run Line Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Angels OVER 9.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Orioles and Angels tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.  These two lineups will have their way with these two gas can starting pitchers.

Kyle Gibson is 0-1 with a 14.09 ERA and 2.48 WHIP in two starts for the Orioles this season as he works his way back from injury.  Gibson has allowed 12 earned runs and 6 homers in 7 2/3 innings.  He posted a 5.05 ERA in 31 starts in 2022, a 4.73 ERA in 33 starts in 2023 and a 4.24 ERA in 30 starts in 2024.  Gibson is far past his prime at 37 years old.  He has allowed 15 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Angels as well.

Jack Kochanowicz is 1-5 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in seven starts for the Angels this season.  He has allowed 24 earned runs, 7 homers and 58 base runners in 37 1/3 innings with only 20 K's.  Pitching to contact is not working out well for him.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Timberwolves/Warriors ABC ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves let the Golden State Warriors off the hook in Game 1.  Stephen Curry got injured in the 1H and they couldn't take advantage of it.  Largely due to the Warriors shooting 18-of-42 (43%) from 3-point range, which is unsustainable moving forward especially without Curry.  The Warriors came back down to earth in Game 2 as expected without Curry, going 9-of-32 (28%) from 3-point range in a 117-93 loss to the Timberwolves.

Conversely, the Timberwolves were due some positive shooting regression after going just 5-of-29 (17%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  They are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA.  They responded by going 16-of-37 (43%) from 3-point range in Game 2 and cut back on the turnovers.

Curry remains out, and thus I give the Warriors little to no chance of even keeping Game 3 competitive against the Timberwolves.  Minnesota goes from an 11-point home favorite in Game 2 at home to a 4.5-point road favorite, which is too big of an adjustment given home-court advantage really doesn't mean much in the playoffs.  It certainly isn't enough to overcome the loss of Curry, who may be the single-most important player to his team if it's not Jokic.  

Minnesota is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in its last five trips to Golden State.  Bet the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego Padres -1.5 (-130)

The San Diego Padres had Thursday off while the Colorado Rockies were playing a double-header with the Detroit Tigers.  That rest advantage is a big reason I was on the Padres in a 13-9 victory in Game 1, and it's a big reason I'm on the Padres again in Game 2 tonight.

The Tigers mopped the floor with the Rockies last series.  They won 10-2 in Game 1 and 11-1 in Game 2 of the double-header Thursday to outscore the Rockies 21-3 and absolutely tax their bullpen in the process.  Add to that their 8-6 loss in extra innings on Wednesday, plus the 13-9 loss to the Padres in Game 1 Friday, and this Colorado bullpen is extremely taxed.

The Rockies are 6-32 this season scoring just 3.3 runs per game and allowing 6.2 runs per game.  Their -113 run differential is far and away the worst mark in baseball.  The Padres are 24-13 this season scoring 4.2 runs per game and allowing 3.3 runs per game.  They have a +33 run differential on the season.

The Padres will crush Bradley Blalock, who is 1-4 with a 6.49 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in eight starts and three relief appearances in his career.  Blalock is 0-1 with an 8.03 ERA and 1.46 WHIP this season, allowing 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 12 1/3 innings.

Stephen Kolak pitched 5 1/3 shutout innings in a 4-0 victory over the Pirates in his first career start on May 4th.  He and this Padres bullpen will be good enough for them to win this game by multiple runs again tonight.  Bet the Padres on the Run Line Saturday.

20* NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Padres/Rockies OVER 11.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 11.5 ticket between the Padres and Rockies tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center inside the most hitter-friendly park in baseball at Coors Field in Denver.

The weather has been great in Colorado this week which is a big reason they are 4-0 OVER in their last four home games combining for 14, 12 and 12 runs with the Tigers, and 22 runs with the Padres in Game 1 of this series Friday.  Their bullpen is extremely taxed after having to play a double-header on Thursday against the Tigers.

The Padres will do the heavy lifting again in us cashing this OVER ticket.  They will crush Bradley Blalock, who is 1-4 with a 6.49 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in eight starts and three relief appearances in his career.  Blalock is 0-1 with an 8.03 ERA and 1.46 WHIP this season, allowing 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 12 1/3 innings.

Stephen Kolak has posted a 4.67 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in his career mostly as a reliever for the Padres.  He has allowed 27 earned runs in 52 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Dodgers are 10-3 in their last 13 games while scoring a total of 104 runs in those 13 games for an average of 8.0 runs per game.  They are showing once again they have one of the best offenses in baseball this season.  The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own. While the Dodgers rank 3rd in baseball scoring 5.6 runs per game, the Diamondbacks are not far behind ranking 56th in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game.

The Dodgers should hang a big number on Corbin Burnes, who has struggled in his first season in Arizona.  Burnes is 1-1 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in six starts this season.  This will be his toughest test of the season to date.

Regression has hit Dustin May hard in recent starts.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 21 base runners in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  It won't get any easier against this potent Arizona lineup today.

This has been an OVER series.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings and 10-2 in the last 12 meetings with 10 or more combined runs in 10 of those 12 meetings.  The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have combined for at least 11 runs in eight of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Cubs/Mets NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9

The Cubs lead the majors scoring 5.8 runs per game.  The Mets are scoring 4.8 runs per game and are extremely hot at the plate coming into this game, scoring 4 runs or more in seven of their last eight games overall.  Both offenses should have their way with these two starting pitchers tonight.

Brad Keller will be making his 1st start of the season for the Cubs after pitching 16 2/3 innings out of the bullpen this season.  Keller went 0-4 with a 5.44 ERA in 2024, 3-4 with a 4.57 ERA in 2023, 6-14 with a 5.09 ERA in 2022 and 8-12 with a 5.39 ERA in 2021.  This guy just can't make it in the big leagues but he keeps being given a chance.

Tyler Megill is 24-23 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 74 starts and seven relief appearances in his career.  Megill has allowed 7 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in. The OVER is 4-0 in Megill's last four starts overall with 9 or more combined runs in all four.  Megill has allowed 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Chicago.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Marlins/White Sox OVER 8

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket today.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to right in Chicago this afternoon.  These teams combined for 8 runs yesterday and it should be even more today.

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 25-12 OVER in all games scoring 4.3 runs per game but ranking dead last (30th) in baseball allowing 6.2 runs per game.  The OVER is 19-6 in Marlins last 25 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 19 of those 254 games.

The Chicago White Sox and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in 10 of their last 14 games, including 9 runs or more in 8 of them.  This total of 8 is too low for the way these two teams are trending right now.

Edward Cabrera is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 0-1 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 17 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings.  Cabrera went 4-8 with a 4.95 ERA in 20 starts for the Marlins last season.  Shane Smith has been solid for the White Sox, but he will get rocked by the Marlins today given the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Celtics/Knicks ABC No-Brainer on Boston -5

The New York Knicks have been the luckiest team in the NBA playoffs thus far.  Their last five wins have all come by 3 points or less.  They overcame a 20-point deficit in BOTH Game 1 and Game 2 to beat the Boston Celtics.  Their luck runs out in Game 3.

I expect to see a pissed off Celtics team that gets back to dominating the Knicks like they had previously.   They had been 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in their previous nine meetings with the Knicks before blowing 20-point 2H leads in Game 1 and Game 2.  They are clearly the better team at their best, and they will respond with a blowout win in Game 3.

The Celtics are due some positive shooting regression after going 25-of-100 (25%) from 3-point range through the first two games of this series.  It's impressive they have had 20-point leads in both games considering how poorly they have shot the ball.  They are 4-0 in their last four trips to New York and love playing in Madison Square Garden.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Thunder/Nuggets ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4.5

The Denver Nuggets are a tired team.  They needed Game 7 to put away the Clippers, and they had just one day in between series.  They rode their momentum into a double-digit comeback win over the Thunder in Game 1 in the final minutes.  Their tired legs showed in Game 2 as they were blasted 149-106 by the Thunder.

Now they just have one day of rest in between Games 2 and 3 again.  They won't be recovered in time, and their lack of depth is really going to hurt them as this series goes on.  The Thunder showed off their impressive depth in that 149-106 win in Game 2.  Eight different players scored in double-figures.  For the Nuggets, Russell Westrbook is their only reliable weapon off the bench, and starter Michael Porter Jr. isn't giving them much as he plays through a shoulder injury.

The Thunder go from 10.5-point favorites in Game 2 to only 4.5-point favorites in Game 3.  As we've clearly seen in these playoffs, home-court advantage isn't worth that much.  This 6-point adjustment for flipping home courts is too much.  The Thunder just have all the advantages in this series as they are the fresher, deeper, better team.  I'll gladly lay 4.5 points with them in what I expect to be another blowout tonight.  Bet the Thunder in Game 3 Friday.

15* Yankees/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 10.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 10.5 ticket between the Yankees and A's tonigth.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, a Triple-A park in Sacramento that is the temporary home of the A's this season.

The Yankees are scoring 5.6 runs per game which is the 2nd-best mark in baseball.  They will certainly hang a big number on the A's, who have gone 11-7 OVER in all home games this season.

Will Warren is 1-5 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 12 starts and one relief appearance in his career.  He is only starting for the Yankees this season due to injuries to their rotation.

Osvaldo Bido is 2-2 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in seven starts this season with just 21 K's in 36 1/3 innings.  Regression has hit Bido hard in recent start allowing 13 earned runs and 6 homers in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 9.5

The Dodgers are 9-3 in their last 12 games while scoring a total of 90 runs in those 12 games for an average of 7.5 runs per game.  They are showing once again they have one of the best offenses in baseball this season.  The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own.

The Dodgers should hang a big number on Eduardo Rodriquez, who is 1-3 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Rodriquez has allowed 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  He is 1-4 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in six career starts against Los Angeles.  He has allowed 12 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.

While the Dodgers rank 3rd in baseball scoring 5.5 runs per game, the Diamondbacks are not far behind ranking 6th in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game.  Roki Sasaki is pretty fortunate to have a 3.86 ERA in his seven starts this season considering he has a 1.45 WHIP and has been putting runners on base regularly.  Both bullpens are pretty taxed right now as well, especially Los Angeles.

This has been an OVER series.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last seven meetings and 9-2 in the last 11 meetings with 10 or more combined runs in nine of those 11 meetings.  The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have combined for at least 11 runs in seven of their last eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Dodgers/DBacks NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -125

The Los Angeles Dodgers will want revenge from a 5-3 loss to the Diamondbacks in Game 1 of this series yesterday.  The Dodgers are 9-3 in their last 12 games while scoring a total of 90 runs in those 12 games for an average of 7.5 runs per game.  They are showing once again they have one of the best offenses in baseball this season.

The Dodgers should hang a big number on Eduardo Rodriquez, who is 1-3 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Rodriquez has allowed 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  He is 1-4 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in six career starts against Los Angeles.  He has allowed 12 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.

Roki Sasaki is living up to the hype for the Dodgers in his first season.  Sasaki is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in seven starts this season and is the much better starter in this matchup.  Bet the Dodgers Friday.

15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Angels OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Orioles and Angels tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.  The Orioles are capable of covering this total on their own.

Kyle Hendricks went 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 24 starts and five relief appearances in his final season with the Cubs last year.  The Angels took a chance on him this year, and not surprisingly it's blowing up in their face, and it's only a matter of time before he is sent down to the minors.  Hendricks is 1-3 with a 5.28 ERA in six starts this season allowing 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 30 2/3 innings.

Tomoyuki Sugano has held his own with a 3.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in seven starts for the Orioles.  But he's a contact pitcher with just 21 K's in 39 innings, so he is clearly due some regression.  The Angels have scored at least 5 runs in four of their last five games and should get to him tonight.  

The OVER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 13 games, and 11 or more combined runs in seven of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Rockies OVER 11

The weather has been great in Colorado this week which is a big reason they are 3-0 OVER in their last three home games combining for 14, 12 and 12 runs with the Tigers.  It will be perfect again Friday night with temps in the 70's and light winds blowing out to center inside the most hitter-friendly park in the majors in Coors Field.

Two gas can starting pitchers will both get rocked today.  The Padres will crush Antonio Senzatela, who is 1-5 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in seven starts this season with just 17 K's in 34 1/3 innings.  Senzatela has allowed 21 earned runs and 8 homers in 24 2/3 innings in his last five starts.

While I expect the Padres to do the heavy lifting today, the Rockies should be able to get to Randy Vasquez as well.  Vasquez has allowed 10 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  Vasquez has allowed 10 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Rockies as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Padres -1.5 (-115)

The San Diego Padres had yesterday off while the Colorado Rockies were playing a double-header with the Detroit Tigers.  That rest advantage is a big reason I'm on the Padres for Game 1 of this series Friday night.

The Tigers mopped the floor with the Rockies yesterday.  They won 10-2 in Game 1 and 11-1 in Game 2 to outscored the Rockies 21-3 and absolutely tax their bullpen in the process.  Add to that their 8-6 loss in extra innings on Wednesday, and this Colorado bullpen is extremely taxed.

The Rockies are 6-31 this season scoring just 3.1 runs per game and allowing 6.1 runs per game.  Their -109 run differential is far and away the worst mark in baseball.  The Padres are 23-13 this season scoring 4.0 runs per game and allowing 3.2 runs per game.  They have a +29 run differential on the season.

The Padres will crush Antonio Senzatela, who is 1-5 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in seven starts this season with just 17 K's in 34 1/3 innings.  Senzatela has allowed 21 earned runs and 8 homers in 24 2/3 innings in his last five starts.  Bet the Padres on the Run Line Friday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Marlins/White Sox OVER 8

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 24-12 OVER in all games scoring 4.4 runs per game but ranking dead last (30th) in baseball allowing 6.2 runs per game.  The OVER is 18-6 in Marlins last 24 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 19 of those 24 games.

The Chicago White Sox and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in 9 of their last 13 games, including 9 runs or more in 8 of them.  This total of 8 is too low for the way these two teams are trending right now.

Max Meyer has struggled mightily in his last two starts for the Marlins allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 21 base runners in 9 innings.  Bryse Wilson is 20-22 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in his career, and 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 22 2/3 innings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-115)

The Detroit Tigers are one of the best teams in baseball that nobody is talking about.  The Tigers are 25-13 this season scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 3.3 runs per game.  Their +83 run differential is far and away the best mark in baseball.  The Tigers are 13-3 at home as well.

The Rangers are 18-20 overall including 6-12 on the road.  They are scoring just 3.2 runs per game which ranks 28th in baseball.  Only the Rockies and Pirates have been worse.  The Rangers have a -20 run differential on the season.

The Tigers have a big advantage on the mound tonight that should have them winning this game by multiple runs.  Tarik Skubal won the 2024 AL CY Young by going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.92 WHIP and 228 K's in 192 innings.  He has picked up where he left off, going 3-2 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven starts this season.

Patrick Corbin is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He posted a 5.20 ERA or worse and started at least 31 games in each of his last four seasons in Washington.  Corbin has a 1.50 WHIP in five starts this season and is very fortunate to have a 3.28 ERA.  His luck will run out today.  Bet the Tigers on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Dodgers are 9-2 in their last 11 games while scoring a total of 87 runs in those 11 games for an average of 7.9 runs per game.  They are showing once again they have one of the best offenses in baseball this season.  The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own.

They should crush Brandon Pfaadt, who allowed 7 runs, 6 earned, and 2 homers in 4 2/3 innings of a 7-2 loss to the Phillies in his last start.  Pfaadt has allowed 5 earned runs and 15 base runners in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers.

This has been an OVER series.  The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings and 9-1 in the last 10 meetings with 10 or more combined runs in nine of those 10 meetings.  The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have combined for at least 11 runs in seven consecutive meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Dodgers -141

The Dodgers are 9-2 in their last 11 games while scoring a total of 87 runs in those 11 games for an average of 7.9 runs per game.  They are showing once again they have one of the best offenses in baseball this season.

They should crush Brandon Pfaadt, who allowed 7 runs, 6 earned, and 2 homers in 4 2/3 innings of a 7-2 loss to the Phillies in his last start.  Pfaadt has allowed 5 earned runs and 15 base runners in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound today behind NL Cy Young favorite Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  He is 4-2 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing just 4 earned runs in 40 innings with 49 K's.  Yamamoto has allowed just 2 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings in two career starts against Arizona.  Bet the Dodgers Thursday.

20* Warriors/Timberwolves TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 202.5

Steph Curry got injured in the 1H of Game 1 with a hamstring injury and now has been ruled out for at least a week.  The Warriors were very reliant on Curry to produce the bulk of their offense, and now they will have to rely on defense pretty much exclusively moving forward without him.

They did a good job of it in Game 1 beating the Timberwolves 99-88 for just 187 combined points.  I expect Game 2 to be even lower scoring.  I don't expect the Warriors to shoot nearly as well from 3-point range after going 18-of-42 (43%) in Game 1.  There is a good chance this is a Minnesota blowout, which will prevent fouls in the closing minutes as well.  Bet the UNDER in Game 2 Thursday.

15* Warriors/Timberwolves TNT ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -9.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves let the Golden State Warriors off the hook in Game 1.  Stephen Curry got injured in the 1H and they couldn't take advantage of it.  Largely due to the Warriors shooting 18-of-42 (43%) from 3-point range, which is unsustainable moving forward especially without Curry.  The Warriors will come back down to earth in Game 2.

Conversely, the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression after going just 5-of-29 (17%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  They are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, and they will shoot it much better in Game 2.  They will also make the proper adjustments and come back with a sense of urgency tonight that should lead to a double-digit blowout victory in their favor.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Braves OVER 8

After three straight unders to open this series, I think the bats come to life in Game 4 tonight.  The Reds are scoring 4.8 runs per game with one of the more underrated offenses in baseball.  The Braves are capable of more than they have shown and are also healthier now than they were at the beginning of the season.

Nick Lodolo allowed 6 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 1/3 innings to the Nationals in his last start.  Spencer Schellenbach has really been struggling of late for the Braves, allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 21 1/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +179

Spencer Schwellenbach and the Braves have no business being this big of a favorite over the Cincinnati Reds today.  Schwellenach has allowed 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 21 1/3 innings in his last four starts coming in for a 7.17 ERA during this stretch.

Nick Lodolo has been solid for the Reds this season going 3-3 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in seven starts while allowing 15 earned runs and 43 base runners in 41 1/3 innings.  The Reds also have the better offense scoring 4.8 runs per game compared to 4.0 runs per game for the Braves.  Bet the Reds Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Tigers/Rockies OVER 9.5 (Game 1)

The Tigers beat the Rockies 8-6 in extra innings yesterday.  Both teams used their best relievers in that game and likely won't have them available for Game 1 today.  Both starters will struggle, especially with the forecast that shows temps in the 60's and almost no wind.  The ball should be flying out of hitter-friendly Coors Field again today.

Casey Mize has allowed 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last two road starts.  Mize allowed 4 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his lone career start against the Rockies, which came at home last season in a 7-4 victory.

Kyle Freeland has allowed 20 earned runs and 36 hits in 23 2/3 innings in his last five starts for a 7.61 ERA for the Rockies.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 Thursday.

25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder led the Denver Nuggets by double-digits throughout Game 1.  They let the Nuggets off the hook down the stretch and lost a stunner on a game-winner from Aaron Gordon.  They played tight down the stretch while the Nuggets were riding high off their Game 7 victory over the Clippers and rode that confidence and momentum to come back and steal Game 1.

Now I think the Nuggets are gassed and will relax in Game 2, while the Thunder will respond in a big way.  The Nuggets' lack of depth will come into play here with the quick turnaround off the big comeback and off a Game 7 the previous series.  They are getting nothing from Michael Porter Jr., who is clearly hobbled with a shoulder injury and was replaced by Russell Westbrook down the stretch.  Westbrook is the only player that gives them any production off the bench, so it's going to mess up their rotations even more without Porter Jr. being able to provide anything.

The Thunder are the deepest team in the NBA.  They are also a very resilient team.  They went 12-2 following a loss during the regular season only twice losing two games in a row, and never losing three games in a row.  I expect the Thunder to win this game by double-digits and likely by 20-plus.  Bet the Thunder in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-118)

The Detroit Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in baseball.  They are off to a 22-13 start this season scoring 5.1 runs per game and allowing just 3.3 runs per game.  Their +63 run differential ranks 1st in all of baseball.

The Colorado Rockies are the worst team in baseball this season.  They are 6-28 on the season scoring just 3.1 runs per game and allowing 5.7 runs per game.  Their -89 run differential is far and away the worst mark in all of baseball by 26 runs!

Jackson Jobe is proving to be one of the better young starters in baseball.  He is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 28 innings in his career, 24 or which have come this season across five starts.

I'll gladly fade rookie Chase Dollander, who is 2-3 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five starts this season while allowing 18 earned runs and 8 homers in 25 innings.  I fully expect the Tigers to win by multiple runs tonight.  Bet the Tigers on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Reds +108

The Cincinnati Reds will be highly motivated for a victory today after losing each of the first two games in this series to the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves have a taxed bullpen off three consecutive close wins dating back to their 4-3 win over the Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball.

The Reds have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Hunter Greene, who is one of the best starters in all of baseball.  Greene went 9-5 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 26 starts for the Reds last season. He is 4-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in seven starts this season while allowing just 12 earned runs and 35 base runners in 42 2/3 innings with 55 K's.  Greene fired 7 shutout innings in a 4-1 win over the Braves in his last start against them.

Grant Holmes is 2-2 with a 4.24 ERA in six starts and one relief appearance for the Braves this season.  Holmes has really struggled of late, allowing 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  He allowed 2 earned runs and 7 base runners in 4 innings to the Reds in his last start against them.  Bet the Reds Wednesday.

20* Knicks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston -9.5

The Boston Celtics were up 20 on the Knicks in Game 1 and let go of the rope.  They let the Knicks off the hook by shooting 19 of their 20 FG attempts in the 3rd quarter from 3-point range.  They went 15-of-60 (25%) from 3 for the game.  They are clearly due some positive shooting regression in Game 2, and they will attack the rim more as well.

Conversely, the Knicks are due some negative shooting regression after going 17-of-37 (46%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  I also think it's tougher for the Knicks to have to play on the quick turnaround off a OT game because they rely so much on their five starters, while the Celtics are a much deeper team.

Kristaps Porzingis didn't play in the 2H for the Celtics due to an illness, and he should be healthier tonight which would be a bonus.  Jrue Holiday returned from injury in Game 1 and played a great game with 16 points.  The Celtics are closer to full strength and much healthier than they were for the opening series against the Magic.

The Celtics own the Knicks going 8-2 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They won their two regular season home meetings with the Knicks by 13 and 23 points, and they have won four of their last five home meetings by double-digits prior to that loss in Game 1.  Boston will respond in a big way in Game 2 tonight.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

20* NL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Dodgers/Marlins OVER 9.5

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 23-12 OVER in all games scoring 4.5 runs per game but ranking dead last (30th) in baseball allowing 6.1 runs per game.  The OVER is 17-6 in Marlins last 23 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 18 of those 23 games.  Better yet, the Marlins are 67-28 OVER in all home games dating back to the start of last season.

The Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 games while scoring a total of 77 runs in those 10 games for an average of 7.7 runs per game.  They are showing once again they have one of the best offenses in baseball this season.  The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own.

Valente Bellozo is 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 21 base runners in 12 2/3 innings with only 7 K's.  He will get rocked early and often by the Dodgers.

But the Marlins should do plenty of damage of their own against Landon Knack, who has been forced into the rotation due to injuries for the Dodgers.  Knack is 1-0 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.73 WHIP this season allowing 7 earned runs and 15 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.  Both bullpens are taxed after going extra innings last night as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Mets/DBacks NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9

Two of the best offenses in the National League square off in this series.  The Diamondbacks rank 4th in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game this season.  The Mets rank 9th in baseball scoring 4.8 runs per game.

I like the fact that these offenses will get to face these two starting pitchers for the 2nd time in a week.  David Peterson faced the Diamondbacks in a 8-3 victory on April 29th, while Zac Gallen faces the Mets in a 4-2 victory on May 1st.  I expect both starters to get rocked tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Timberwolves TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -6

Teams coming off a Game 7 on less than 3 days' rest against teams that are coming off 4 or more days' rest are 5-19 SU & 8-16 ATS in their last 24 tries in the NBA playoffs.  The spot really favors the rested Timberwolves against the tired Warriors coming off a Game 7.

The Timberwolves are fully healthy and a different team in the playoffs.  They showed that last year when they made the Western Conference Finals, and they are even better this season.  They took out the Lakers in 5 games and stymied LeBron and Doncic, and now they will take care of a Golden State team that is also too reliant on two players.

The Warriors were able to get by the Rockets in 7 games.  The Rockets are one of the worst offensive teams in the playoffs and let the Warriors hang around because of it.  The Warriors improved to 5-1 on the road in winner-take-all games thanks to a 9-of-11 shooting performance from Buddy Hield from 3-point range, which was a complete aberration.

Stephen Curry played 46 minutes in that Game 7 after playing 42 minutes in Game 6.  Game 7 was on Sunday, so now the Warriors have to travel from Houston to Minnesota and won't have much left in the tank for the Timberwolves tonight.  I expect Minnesota to jump on them early and to pull away late to cover this short 6-point spread given the rest advantage.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Giants/Cubs NL No-Brainer on OVER 8

Two of the most underrated offenses in baseball square off today when the Giants take on the Cubs for Game 2 of this series.  The Cubs rank 1st in baseball scoring 6.0 runs per game, while the Giants rank 13th scoring 4.6 runs per game.  These teams have combined to go 41-27 OVER in all games as a result.

The Cubs covered the total on their own in a 9-2 victory in Game 1 Monday.  They are capable of doing it again off Justin Verlander, who is washed up and way past his prime. Verlander is 0-2 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in seven starts for the Giants this season.

The Giants should get their bats going against Colin Rea, who clearly hates facing them.  Rea has allowed 17 earned runs and 6 homers in 16 innings in his last three starts against the Giants for a 9.56 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Kansas City Royals -1.5 (-103)

The Kansas City Royals own the Chicago White Sox.  The Royals are 14-1 in their last 15 meetings with the White Sox with 12 of those 14 wins coming by two runs or more.  I expect the Royals to win by multiple runs again today due to their advantage on the mound.

Seth Lugo is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Lugo went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 33 starts in his first season in Kansas City in 2024 while finishing 2nd in AL Cy Young voting.  Lugo is 3-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in seven starts this season to back it up.

Sean Burke is 2-4 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in six starts and one relief appearance for the White Sox this season.  He has allowed 18 earned runs and 7 homers in 33 innings.

Lugo owns the White Sox, going 3-0 with a 0.79 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three career starts against them while allowing just 2 earned runs and 18 base runners in 22 2/3 innings.  Bet the Royals on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Braves OVER 8

Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to center in Atlanta tonight to aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket.  The Reds rank 8th in baseball scoring 4.9 runs per game.  They have one of the more underrated offenses in baseball.  The Braves have more pop than they've shown thus far and are capable of much more.  Both offenses should have plenty of success tonight.

Andrew Abbott is working his way back from injury.  Abbott has thrown 84 or fewer pitches in four of his five starts this season.  He already has 12 walks in 19 innings and control has been an issue.  I fully expect the Braves to get to him today.

Chris Sale hasn't hit his peak form yet and has been shaky to say the least.  Sale is 1-3 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 19 earned runs and 5 homers in 35 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Phillies/Rays OVER 8

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Phillies and Rays tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's at hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field, a Triple-A park the Rays are using to play their home games this season.

The Phillies are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season and have one of the most potent offenses in baseball.  They are capable of covering this total on their own. Drew Rasmussen has allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts for the Rays coming in.

Zack Wheeler hasn't been lights out yet this season going 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA in seven starts.  He has actually allowed at least one homer in all seven starts this season, and he has allowed 15 earned runs in 31 innings in his last five starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Dodgers/Marlins OVER 9

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 23-11 OVER in all games scoring 4.4 runs per game but ranking dead last (30th) in baseball allowing 6.1 runs per game.  The OVER is 17-5 in Marlins last 22 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 17 of those 22 games.  Better yet, the Marlins are 67-27 OVER in all home games dating back to the start of last season.

The Dodgers are 8-1 in their last nine games while scoring a total of 73 runs in those nine games for an average of 8.1 runs per game.  They are showing once again they have one of the best offenses in baseball this season.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own.  Cal Quantrill is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He went 4-7 with a 5.24 ERA in 19 starts in 2023 and 8-11 with a 4.98 ERA in 29 starts in 2024.  Quantrill is 2-3 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in six starts in 2025, allowing 24 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings.  Quantrill has allowed 13 earned runs, 4 homers and 26 base runners in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.

Tony Gonsolin is making his 2nd start since 2023 and is on a pitch count.  He allowed 3 earnred runs in 6 innings to the Marlins on April 30th in his first start this season.  Now the Marlins get to face him for a 2nd time in a week, which is an advantage for them.  Gonsolin has allowed a whopping 13 earned runs and 6 homers in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Marlins.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Mets/DBacks NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9.5

Two of the best offenses in the National League square off tonight when the Mets travel to face the Diamondbacks in Game 1 of this series.  The Diamondbacks rank 4th in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  The Mets rank 9th in baseball scoring 4.8 runs per game.

Both offenses should have their way against these two starting pitchers.  Griffin Canning has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 12 innings in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks.

Ryne Nelson is 1-0 with a 5.82 ERA allowing 11 earned runs in 17 innings this season.  Nelson does not enjoy facing the Mets, allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 13 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Nuggets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -9.5

This is a terrible spot for the Denver Nuggets in Game 1.  They are coming off a grueling 7-game series with the Los Angeles Clippers that concluded on Saturday.  Now they have to turn around and play another game on Monday with only one day of rest in between.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are rested and ready to go after sweeping the Grizzlies and being off since April 26th.

Teams coming off a Game 7 on less than 3 days' rest against teams that are coming off 4 or more days' rest in Game 1 are 4-19 SU & 7-16 ATS in their last 23 tries.  This trend totally makes sense as the team coming off a Game 7 is not only tired, but also in a letdown spot going into a new series.  The rested team has the preparation advantage as well as they would have been preparing to face either team that won in Game 7.

The Thunder are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games with all nine wins coming by 16 points or more.  I recommend playing the Thunder on some alternate lines as well up to -19.5.  Bet the Thunder in Game 1 Monday.

15* NL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Cubs OVER 7

Two of the most underrated offenses in baseball square off today when the Giants visit the Cubs for Game 1 of this series.  The Cubs rank 1st in baseball scoring 5.9 runs per game, while the Giants rank 11th scoring 4.7 runs per game.  These teams have combined to go 40-27 OVER in all games as a result.

The Cubs and Giants have combined for at least 7 runs in eight of their last nine meetings, so this total of 7 is too short tonight.  The Giants and their opponents have combined for at least 7 runs in five of their last six games.  The Cubs and their opponents have combined for at least 7 runs in five of their last six games as well.

Landen Roupp is 2-2 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in six starts for the Giants this season.  Roupp has allowed 13 earned runs, 4 homers and 34 base runners in 20 innings in his last four starts.

Matthew Boyd has allowed 13 runs, 10 earned, 3 homers and 34 base runners in 22 1/3 innings in his last four starts for the Cubs.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL Monday Night Line Mistake on Reds/Braves OVER 8.5

The Reds rank 7th in baseball scoring 5.0 runs per game.  They have one of the more underrated offenses in baseball.  The Braves have more pop than they've shown thus far and are capable of much more.  Both offenses should have plenty of success tonight.

AJ Smith-Shawver is 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in four starts this season allowing 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 32 base runners in 19 innings.  Smith-Shawver allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 1/3 innings in his lone career start against Cincinnati.

Brady Singer does not enjoy facing the Braves.  He has allowed 10 earned runs, 5 homers and 17 base runners in 10 innings in his last two starts against Atlanta.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Marlins OVER 9

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 22-11 OVER in all games scoring 4.5 runs per game but ranking dead last (30th) in baseball allowing 6.1 runs per game.  The OVER is 16-5 in Marlins last 21 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 16 of those 21 games.  Better yet, the Marlins are 66-27 OVER in all home games dating back to the start of last season.

The Dodgers are 7-1 in their last eight games while scoring a total of 66 runs in those eight games for an average of 8.3 runs per game.  They are showing once again they have one of the best offenses in baseball this season.  But they have a banged up, shoddy rotation which is why they are sending opener Jack Dreyer to the mound today.  They are going to make this a bullpen game.

Sandy Alcantara is 2-3 with a 8.31 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in six starts for the Marlins this season.  Alacantara has allowed 20 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings in his last four starts.  One of those starts came against the Dodgers when he allowed 7 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings of a 15-2 loss on April 29th.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston ML -139

It's clear to me that the Houston Rockets are just the deeper team in this series and they have more cards they can play than the Warriors do.  The Warriors rely so much on Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler to do the bulk of their scoring, and Curry and Butler have both been banged up in this series with Curry battling through a thumb injury and Butler battling through a groin injury.

The Rockets have really been impressive in the last three games in this series and have made the proper adjustments.  They lost 109-106 as 3.5-point road dogs in Game 4, but responded with a 131-116 win in Game 5 at home that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They were up 27 going into the 4th quarter and pulled their starters.  All five starters scored in double figures, and they got good performances from Green, Eason and Adams off the bench.

The Rockets backed it up by pulling the 115-107 upset as 5.5-point road dogs in Game 6 to send this series back to Houston for a Game 7.  Fred VanVleet is showing his championship pedigree by playing his best basketball of the season over the last three games to lead this young team.  Steven Adams is doing all the little things for them and had a huge Game 6 as well.

VanVleet has scored a total of 80 points while going 18-of-27 from 3-point range over the last three games.  He lives for these big moments.  Adams had 17 points and 3 blocks in Game 6.  Sengun is a problem for the Warriors, Amen Thompson is growing up quickly, and the Rockets have gotten to this position despite an 'off' playoffs thus far from their leading scorer in Jalen Green.  If they get anything close to the 38-point effort from Green in Game 2 at home in Game 7 then the Warriors stand no chance.  Bet the Rockets on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Dodgers/Braves ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 9.5

The Dodgers have won seven consecutive games while scoring a total of 63 runs in those seven games for an average of 9.0 runs per game.  They are capable of covering this total on their own against the Atlanta Braves like they did yesterday in a 10-3 victory.

 Bryce Elder is 1-1 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in five starts for the Braves this season.  Elder has allowed 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers.  It's not going to go well for him tonight.

Regression has hit Dustin May hard in his last two starts allowing 10 earned runs and 21 base runners in 10 1/3 innings.  The Braves will do enough off May and this Dodgers bullpen to contribute to the OVER.  It's going to be a great night for runs in Atlanta with temps in the 60's and light winds blowing out to left.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Reds OVER 8.5

The Nationals and Reds combined for 17 runs yesterday.  The Reds are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season and the Nationals are allowing 5.2 runs per game.  This total of 8.5 is too low for a game involving these two teams inside hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, especially with these two gas can starting pitchers going.

MacKenzie Gore has allowed 11 earned runs in 22 innings in his last four starts coming in.  Gore allowed 3 earned runs and 6 base runners in 2 innings in his last start against the Reds.

Nick Martinez is 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in six starts for the Reds this season.  Martinez allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start against the Nationals last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rockies/Giants OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Rockies and Giants today.  Temps will be in the 60's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center in San Francisco.  Consistent winds blowing out in San Francisco have quietly made the Giants a dead nuts OVER team when playing at home.

The Giants are 20-14 OVER in all games this season and scoring 4.6 runs per game.  The Rockies are allowing 5.6 runs per game this season.  The Giants are capable of covering this total on their own, which is why I'm not concerned that ace Logan Webb is going for the Giants today.

German Marquez is 0-5 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has allowed a whopping 25 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.  Webb allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings to the Padres in his last start, and he allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start against Colorado.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Astros/White Sox OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the A's and White Sox today.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to right field in Chicago.  These teams combined for 10 runs in Game 1 and 11 runs in Game 2, and it should be more of the same today.

Lance McCullers will be making his first start since 2022 and will be on a pitch count.  Bryse Wilson has been a gas can his entire career.  He is 20-22 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with just 316 K's in 431 2/3 innings.  Wilson is 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 18 innings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on A's/Marlins OVER 9

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 22-10 OVER in all games scoring 4.5 runs per game but ranking dead last (30th) in baseball allowing 6.2 runs per game.  The OVER is 16-4 in Marlins last 20 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 16 of those 20 games.  Better yet, the Marlins are 66-26 OVER in all home games dating back to the start of last season.

The A's are scoring 4.3 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game this season.  They have a better offense than they get credit for, but a terrible rotation.  And I think the A's are actually capable of covering this total on their own against Edward Cabrera.

Cabrera is an absolute gas can allowing 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 18 2/3 innings in four starts this season for a 7.23 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.  JP Sears won't fully hold the Marlins in check, either.  And the A's used closer Mason Miller yesterday in a blown save so he is almost certainly out for this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -111

The Oakland A's have a big advantage on the mound today over the Miami Marlins.  Edward Cabrera is an absolute gas can allowing 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 18 2/3 innings in four starts this season for a 7.23 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.  The A's should tee off on him today.

JP Sears is the clear ace of this Oakland rotation going 4-2 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in six starts this season.  Sears has allowed just 3 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  He pitched 6 1/3 scoreless innings in his lone career start against the Marlins last season.  Bet the A's Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Tigers/Angels OVER 8

Kyle Hendricks one of my favorite starters to bet against.  Hendricks went 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in his final season with the Cubs last year.  It's shocking the Angels are giving him a chance, and it is clearly backfiring thus far.  Hendricks is 0-3 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in five starts this season.  He has allowed 15 earned runs in 12 innings in his last three starts coming in.

The Tigers are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season with an improved offense that is capable of covering this total on their own.  They did just that in their last two games scoring 10 runs in Game 1 and 9 runs in Game 2 of this series.  Don't be surprised if they get 9-plus again in Game 3 tonight.

But the Angels should have more success at the plate tonight against Jack Flaherty, who has allowed 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  Flaherty has allowed 15 earned runs and 3 homers in 8 innings in his last two starts against the Angels.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Clippers/Nuggets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles ML +105

The Los Angeles Clippers have been the better team in this series.  Two of the Nuggets' wins in this series have come by 2 in OT and by 2 at the buzzer.  This could easily be a different series, and the Clippers have been the better team despite it being tied at 3-3.

The Clippers have been a hard luck team in the playoffs in recent years due to injuries.  Well, they are finally fully healthy with their best chance to make a run.  They are a complete team getting great production from all five starters including Kawhi, Harden, Zubac and Powell.  And they also have some punch off the bench in Jones Jr., Bogdanovic and Batum, who has shown as the series goes on that he can give Nikola Jokic troubles when he's guarding him instead of Zubac, who also does a good job of keeping him in check.

The Nuggets are so reliant on Jokic and Jamal Murray.  Michael Porter Jr. is clearly compromised and playing through a shoulder injury just because it's the playoffs.  He only had 5 points in Game 6 and was a non-factor, and they really need him.  Russell Westbrook is the only player that gives the Nuggets anything off the bench as Peyton Watson and De'Andre Jordan have been non-factors.

I think it's the Nuggets that tire down the stretch of Game 7 similar to when they blew a big lead to the Timberwolves last season and lost in Game 7 at home after losing in Game 6.  This is where their lack of depth finally catches up to them in what will be a grueling Game 7.  I trust Kawhi to close the deal if it's close in the end, but I expect the Clippers to control this game from the jump.  Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Mariners/Rangers AL West ANNIHILATOR on Seattle -117

Death, taxes and fade Patrick Corbin.  He started at least 31 games each of the last four seasons for the Nationals while posting no better than a 5.20 ERA in any of the four seasons.  He is fortunate to have a 3.79 ERA in four starts this season when you consider he has a 1.58 WHIP and is putting a ton of runners on base with 30 base runners in 19 innings.

Luis Castillo is coming off his best start of the season firing 6 shutout innings in a 14-0 win over the Marlins.  Castillo has allowed just 4 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts against the Rangers.

The Mariners are red hot at the plate scoring a total of 48 runs in their last five games for an average of 9.6 runs per game.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 16 of their last 19 games overall.  The Mariners own the Rangers going 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Mariners Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Mariners/Rangers OVER 8.5

Death, taxes and fade Patrick Corbin.  He started at least 31 games each of the last four seasons for the Nationals while posting no better than a 5.20 ERA in any of the four seasons.  He is fortunate to have a 3.79 ERA in four starts this season when you consider he has a 1.58 WHIP and is putting a ton of runners on base with 30 base runners in 19 innings.

The Mariners are red hot at the plate scoring a total of 48 runs in their last five games for an average of 9.6 runs per game.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 16 of their last 19 games overall.  They are capable of covering this total on their own like they did yesterday in a 13-1 victory over the Rangers.

But the Rangers should do enough against Luis Castillo, who has been far from sharp to start the season.  Castillo is 3-2 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in his six starts.  He has allowed 8 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Rangers.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on A's/Marlins OVER 8

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 21-10 OVER in all games scoring 4.3 runs per game but ranking dead last (30th) in baseball allowing 6.2 runs per game.  The OVER is 15-4 in Marlins last 19 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 15 of those 19 games.  Better yet, the Marlins are 65-26 OVER in all home games dating back to the start of last season.

The A's are scoring 4.3 runs per game and allowing 4.9 runs per game this season.  They have a better offense than they get credit for, but a terrible rotation.  Osvaldo Bido has allowed 9 earned runs and 5 homers in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts for the A's.

Max Meyer has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 16 innings in his last three starts for the Marlins.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NL West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockies/Giants OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Rockies and Giants this afternoon.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center in San Francisco today.  The Giants are scoring 4.5 runs per game and the Rockies are allowing 5.6 runs per game.

Bradley Blalock has allowed 20 earned runs in 17 innings in his last four starts dating back to last season.  He allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings in his lone start this season. Jordan Hicks has allowed 19 earned runs in 21 innings in his last four starts coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-125)

The San Francisco Giants are 20-13 this season and one of the most underrated teams in baseball.  They are scoring 4.5 runs per game and allowing 3.7 runs per game this season.  The Colorado Rockies are 6-26 this season, including 2-15 on the road.  The Rockies are scoring just 3.1 runs per game and allowing 5.6 runs per game this season.

The Giants should hang a big number on Bradley Blalock, who has allowed 20 earned runs in 17 innings in his last four starts dating back to last season.  He allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings in his lone start this season.

Jordan Hicks has also struggled lately, but he should be good enough to hold the Rockies in check.  He has allowed 4 earned runs in 10 innings in his last two starts against Colorado.  He allowed one earned run in 5 innings of a 4-1 victory over the Rockies in his lone career home start against them.  Bet the Giants on the Run Line Saturday.

15* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-140)

The Houston Astros will come back motivated today after getting upset as -200 favorites by the White Sox in Game 1 of this series.  The Astros have a big advantage on the mound that should have them winning this game by multiple runs today.

Hunter Brown is one of the best young starters in baseball.  He is 4-1 with a 1.22 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in six starts this season allowing just 5 earned runs in 37 innings with 40 K's.  Brown has allowed just 2 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts against the White Sox.

Davis Martin is 4-14 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with 116 K's in 146 2/3 innings in his career in the big leagues.  Martin has allowed 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 33 base runners in 21 1/3 innings in his last four starts this season.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Astros/White Sox OVER 7.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Astros and White Sox today.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Chicago this afternoon.  The Astros are capable of covering this total on their own.

Davis Martin is 4-14 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with 116 K's in 146 2/3 innings in his career in the big leagues.  Martin has allowed 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 33 base runners in 21 1/3 innings in his last four starts this season.

Houston is 5-0 OVER in its last five games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all five games.  The White Sox are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall with 8 or more combined runs in six of those seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Rockies/Giants OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Rockies and Giants tonight.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center in San Francisco.  The Giants have quietly been a very good OVER bet going 19-13 OVER in all games this season while scoring 4.5 runs per game.

The Giants are capable of covering this total on their own against Antonio Senzatela, who has allowed 17 earned runs and 7 homers in 19 2/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.

Robbie Ray has allowed 8 earned runs and 25 base runners in 16 innings in his last three starts for the Giants.  Ray has allowed 8 earned runs and 17 base runners in 7 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Rockies.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Rockets/Warriors ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Houston +5.5

It's clear to me that the Houston Rockets are just the deeper team in this series and they have more cards they can play than the Warriors do.  The Warriors rely so much on Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler to do the bulk of their scoring, and asking them to win by margin in Game 6 to cover this 5.5-point spread is asking too much.

The Rockets have really been impressive in the last two games in this series and have made the proper adjustments.  They lost 109-106 as 3.5-point road dogs in Game 4, and now they are 5.5-point road dogs which is a 2-point adjustment up.

The Rockets played a gem in Game 5 winning 131-116 and this was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They were up 27 going into the 4th quarter and pulled their starters.  All five starters scored in double figures, and they got good performances from Green, Eason and Adams off the bench.  They now have a lot of confidence heading into Game 6, and this series is far from over unlike this line would indicate.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Brewers OVER 8.5

These are two of the most underrated offenses in baseball and it should be a slug fest in Game 1 tonight.  The Cubs rank 1st in all of baseball scoring 6.0 runs per game.  The Brewers rank 8th scoring 5.0 runs per game.

Ben Brown was rocked for 6 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings by the Phillies in his last start.  He'll be opposed by Quinn Priester, who is also coming off his worst start of the season.  Priester allowed 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings to the Cardinals in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Twins/Red Sox AL No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Twins and Red Sox tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at hitter-friendly Fenway Park.  The Red Sox are scoring 5.0 runs per game and allowing 4.6 runs per game this season.  The Twins are scoring 5.4 runs per game in their last seven games.

Joe Ryan allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings to the Braves in his last road start.  Ryan allowed 3 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start against Boston.

Brayan Bello will be making just his 3rd start this season.  He has allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers and 16 base runners in 11 innings in his first two starts and was fortunate not to allow more runs.  Bello allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 innings in his last start against Minnesota.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on A's/Marlins OVER 9

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 21-9 OVER in all games scoring 4.5 runs per game but ranking dead last (30th) in baseball allowing 6.2 runs per game.  The OVER is 15-3 in Marlins last 18 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 15 of those 18 games.  Better yet, the Marlins are 65-25 OVER in all home games dating back to the start of last season.

The A's are scoring 4.2 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game this season.  They have a better offense than they get credit for, but a terrible rotation.  They are giving Gunnar Hoglund his first career start today.

Valente Bellozo will be making his first start of the season for the Marlins as well.  Bellozo is 3-5 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 15 career starts with only 50 K's and 15 homers allowed in 76 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Yankees OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Yankees and Rays tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to left at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees are scoring 5.7 runs per game this season and capable of covering this total on their own.  Ryan Pepiot has allowed 15 earned runs and 8 homers in 28 innings in his last five starts.  One of those starts came against the Yankees on April 20th when he allowed 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings.

Max Fried has been dominant for the Yankees this season, and that's why this total is as low as it is.  But he is due some regression, and the Rays have been at their best on the road this season.  The Rays have scored at least 4 runs in four of their last five road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Royals/Orioles OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket between the Royals and Orioles tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center.  The Orioles are allowing 5.6 runs per game this season.

The Royals are hot right now going 9-1 in their last 10 games and their offense has come to life, scoring 8 runs against the Rays yesterday.  They should stay hot against Dean Kremer, who has allowed 17 earned runs and 6 homers in 21 innings in his last four starts.  Kremer has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Royals.

Michael Wacha has allowed 11 earned runs in 28 innings in his last five starts coming in.  Wacha has allowed 7 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles, including 4 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings against them earlier this season on April 5th.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks/Phillies OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Diamondbacks and Phillies tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Philadelphia.  It will be a humid night and the ball should be flying out.

There's a lot to like about these two offenses.  The Diamondbacks are scoring 5.2 runs per game and allowing 4.9 runs per game this season.  The Phillies are scoring 4.5 runs per game and capable of more with all their talent.

The Diamondbacks and Phillies have combined for at least 9 runs in five of their last seven meetings, including 10 runs or more in four of their last six meetings.  Merrill Kelly is vulnerable as a starter for the Diamondbacks.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Phillies.

Jesus Luzardo has not enjoyed facing the Diamondbacks.  He has allowed 10 earned runs, 2 homers and 23 base runners in 11 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Arizona.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Nuggets/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6

I pulled the trigger on the Clippers once it dropped from the opener of -7 down to -6.  I think the value is there now, and I fully expect them to respond in a big way tonight to stave off elimination.  This will look similar to Game 3 when the Clippers won 117-83 at home.

Two of the Nuggets' wins in this series have come by 2 in OT and by 2 at the buzzer.  This could easily be a different series, and the Clippers have been the better team despite being down 3-2 in my opinion.

The Nuggets are due some regression after an outlier shooting performance at home in Game 5.  They shot 55.8% from the field an a unsustainable 17-of-33 (51.5%) from 3-point range.  There was nothing the Clippers could do.  They will make the proper adjustments for Game 6, and the Nuggets may relax knowing they have a Game 7 at home in their back pocket if necessary.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

25* NBA Playoffs 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Pistons ML -130

The Detroit Pistons have been the better team in this series despite being down 3-2.  Their last two losses came by a combined 3 points, and they were jobbed by the refs not calling a foul on a Tim Hardaway 3-pointer at the buzzer in Game 4.  He for sure would have made at least 2 of 3 free throws.  The other loss came in Game 1 after blowing an 8-point lead in the 4th quarter.

I love how the Pistons responded in Game 5 as they easily could have folded after getting jobbed by the refs in Game 4.  Instead, they pulled the 106-103 upset as 5.5-point dogs in New York, and now they are oozing with confidence and highly motivated to give their fans a much-awaited home victory in the playoffs.  They have been waiting for one since 2008, and I expect the Pistons to deliver tonight.

The Knicks rely too much on their starters and too much on tough shot making.  It will bite them sooner rather than later.  They are getting nothing from their bench.  Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson are already banged up.  The Pistons are getting a lot from their bench in Beasley and Schroder, and Cunningham, Thompson and Harris are all delivering.

The Pistons won Game 5 despite shooting just 42.4% from the field and 8-of-29 (27.6%) from 3-point range.  So there's actually room for improvement, and I think we get their best effort in Game 6 tonight to stave off elimination.  Bet the Pistons on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Red Sox/Blue Jays AL East No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The Boston Red Sox are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season.  They are also allowing 4.6 runs per game, and the Blue Jays are allowing 4.6 runs per game as well.  Both offenses should have their way with these two starting pitchers again tonight after combining for 12 runs in Game 1 and 13 runs in Game 2 of this series.

Tanner Houck has been absolutely rocked in his last three starts.  He has allowed 17 earned runs and 3 homers in 13 1/3 innings in his last three starts.

Jose Berrios has allowed 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 27 innings in his last five starts for the Blue Jays.  He is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  

The OVER is 7-1 in Red Sox last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games, and 10 or more in six of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Brewers/White Sox OVER 8.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Brewers and White Sox today.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left in Chicago this afternoon.  The OVER is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings, including 9 or more combined runs in five of those six meetings and each of the first two games in this series.

The Brewers are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season and capable of covering this total on their own. Sean Burke is 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in five starts and one relief appearances for the White Sox.  Burke has allowed 18 earned runs and 7 homers in 21 innings in his five starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Brewers -152

The Milwaukee Brewers have a big advantage on the mound today over the Chicago White Sox.  They also have a big advantage at the plate.  The Brewers are scoring 5.1 runs per game this season while the White Sox are scoring just 3.4 runs per game.

Rookie Chad Patrick has been very impressive for the Brewers.  He is 1-2 with a 2.45 ERA in five starts and one relief appearance.  He has only allowed 5 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings in his five starts.

Sean Burke is 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in five starts and one relief appearances for the White Sox.  Burke has allowed 18 earned runs and 7 homers in 21 innings in his five starts this season.  Bet the Brewers Thursday.

20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

Note: I like a Lakers/Clippers Money Line Parlay for Wednesday and Thursday at roughly even money.

The Los Angeles Lakers have let the Minnesota Timberwolves off the hook in this series.  This should be a 2-2 series but they are down 3-1, and thus have their backs against the wall in a must-win situation in Game 5.  The Timberwolves will relax a little knowing they only have to win one of their next three games to close out the Lakers, and the first close out game is always the hardest.

The Lakers played all five starters all 30 minutes in the 2H in Game 4 and they wore down late, blowing the lead and letting the Timberwolves steal a 116-113 victory.  Anthony Edwards talked about how the Lakers ran out of gas and were tired after the game, and that is going to really motivate the Lakers to come back and prove him wrong.  

The Lakers have now had the last two days off and will be fresh, pissed off and out for revenge in Game 5.  I expect them to roll.  Keep in mind Luka Doncic was battling illness in the two games in Minnesota and nearly didn't play in Game 3.  He is back to full strength now, and the Lakers are tough to tame with Doncic, James and Reaves leading the way.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday.

25* NBA Playoffs 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Timberwolves/Lakers OVER 209

Both the Lakers and Timberwolves have gone more small ball the last two games.  The Lakers are hardly playing Jaxson Hayes as he has played fewer than 10 minutes in all four games.  The Timberwolves are going with Naz Reid over Rudy Gobert more often than the regular season to match up better with the Lakers.

The result has been two games flying OVER the total in their last two with 220 combined points in Game 3 and 229 combined points in Game 4.  Oddsmakers have failed to adjust up for it enough in Game 5 with this total at 209 after closing at 209 in Game 4 as well.

Keep in mind Luka Doncic was sick for Game 3 and Game 4 and now he's back to full strength.  The Lakers are a tough team to tame offensively with Doncic, James and Reaves, and the Timberwolves have more offensive punch when Reid is in the lineup over Gobert.  Bet the OVER in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* DBacks/Mets NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off in this series.  The Diamondbacks rank 3rd in the majors scoring 5.3 runs per game.  The Mets rank 9th scoring 4.8 runs per game.  The OVER is 6-0 in DBacks last six games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all six games.  The Mets are scorching hot scoring 34 runs in their last three games and have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 12 games overall.

Corbin Burnes hasn't been great in his first season with the Diamondbacks, going 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in five starts.  Burnes hates facing the Mets, allowing 11 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts against them.

Huascar Brazoban is nothing more than an opener for the Mets and they will be making this a bullpen game.  Arizona should hang a big number today.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Pirates OVER 8.5

The Cubs rank 1st in baseball scoring 6.0 runs per game this season.  The OVER is 17-4-1 in the last 22 meetings with 8 or more combined runs in 18 of those 22 meetings, and 9 or more combined runs in 17 of those.

The Cubs covered the total on their own in Game 1 scoring 9 runs yesterday.  They are capable of doing it again facing Carmen Mlodzinki, who is 1-3 with a 6.95 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in five starts this season allowing 17 earned runs and 40 base runners in 22 innings.

Regression has hit Matthew Boyd in his last three starts, allowing 11 runs, 8 earned, 3 homers and 26 base runners in 17 1/3 innings.  Boyd has allowed 8 earned runs and 2 homers in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Pirates.  Pittsburgh will do enough off of him to aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Yankees/Orioles AL East No-Brainer on OVER 9.5

The Yankees rank 2nd in MLB scoring 5.8 runs per game this season.  The Orioles are scoring 4.0 runs per game and capable of much more.  But the Orioles rank 28th in baseball allowing 5.7 runs per game with a dreadful staff.

Two of the worst starters on their respective staffs go tonight in what should be another slug fest after the Yankees won 15-3 yesterday, and there have now been 11 or more combined runs in four of their last six meetings.  Temps will be in the 70's with almost no wind so the ball should be flying out again.

38-year-old Carlos Carrasco went 3-8 with a 6.80 ERA in 20 starts in 2023, 3-10 with a 5.64 ERA in 21 starts in 2024 and 2-1 with a 5.23 ERA in five starts in 2025.  It's unthinkable the Yankees have him as part of their rotation, but injuries have forced their hand.

Cade Povich is 4-11 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 21 career starts for the Orioles, including 1-2 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in five starts in 2025.  Povich allowed 3 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Yankees.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday Afternoon Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Dodgers OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Marlins and Dodgers this afternoon.  Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are heating up at the plate scoring 5.2 runs per game on the season and 6 runs or more in six of their last seven games coming in with the OVER going 6-1 in those seven games with 11 or more combined runs in six of them.  The only game that went under was a pitcher's duel between aces in Skenes and Yamamoto.

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 20-9 OVER in all games scoring 4.4 runs per game but ranking dead last (30th) in baseball allowing 6.0 runs per game.  The OVER is 14-3 in Marlins last 17 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 14 of those 17 games.

The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 11 meetings.  The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own like they did last night in a 15-2 victory overt he Marlins.

Cal Quantrill is 2-2 with a 7.83 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in five starts this season allowing 20 earned runs in 23 innings with only 13 K's.  Quantrill allowed 12 earned runs and 29 base runners in 13 innings in his three starts against the Dodgers last season.

Tony Gonsolin will be making his first start since 2023 for the Dodgers.  He will clearly be on a pitch count.  The Dodgers have a gassed bullpen due to all their starting pitcher injuries to this point.  Gonsolin allowed 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Marlins.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Cardinals/Reds NL Central Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9 (Game 1)

These are two underrated offenses with suspect pitching staffs.  The Reds rank 4th in baseball scoring 5.3 runs per game.  The Cardinals rank 12th scoring 4.5 runs per game.  The Reds are scoring 7.3 runs per game in their last 11 games.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 17 games.

The Reds will stay hot against Miles Mikolas, who is 0-2 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five starts this season while allowing 15 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings.  Mikolas does not enjoy facing the Reds, allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  He is 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA in eight career starts in Cincinnati.

Brady Singer has allowed 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 28 base runners in 20 1/3 innings in his last four starts.  Singer allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 3 innings in his lone career start against the Cardinals.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 of this double-header Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML -122

The Clippers have clearly been the better team in this series despite it being tied 2-2.  The Clippers have outscored the Nuggets by 33 points in the four games.  They could have easily swept the Nuggets as both of Denver's wins came by exactly 2 points with one in OT and one at the buzzer.

The Clippers will take control of this series in Game 5 and are favored for good reason.  They are the deeper, more talented team.  They are fully healthy, while the Nuggets are dealing with injuries to Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook.  The Nuggets have the worst bench in the NBA left in the playoffs and it will catch up to them sooner rather than later.  They just rely so much on one player in Jokic.  Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Marlins/Dodgers OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Marlins and Dodgers tonight.  There will be 10 MPH winds blowing out to center with temps in the 60's in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are heating up at the plate scoring 4.8 runs per game on the season and 6 runs or more in five of their last six games coming in with the OVER going 5-1 in those six games with 11 or more combined runs in five of them.  The only game that went under was a pitcher's duel between aces in Skenes and Yamamoto.

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 19-9 OVER in all games scoring 4.5 runs per game but ranking 29th in baseball allowing 5.7 runs per game.  The OVER is 13-3 in Marlins last 16 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 13 of those 16 games.

The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings with 9 or more combined runs in nine of those 10 meetings.  Sandy Alcantara is 2-3 with a 8.38 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in six career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 27 earned runs and 8 homers in 29 innings.  The Dodgers will be making this a bullpen game as their staff is in a world of hurt right now due to injuries.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-135)

The Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season while the Chicago White Sox are scoring 3.4 runs per game.  The Brewers have a big advantage on the mound and at the plate tonight that should have them winning this game by multiple runs.

Freddy Peralta is 55-38 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his career in the big leagues.  Peralta is 2-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has held the White Sox to just 3 earned runs in 17 innings in his last three starts against them.

Tyler Gilbert is basically an opener for the White Sox.  He won't go deep into this game.  Gilbert is 3-8 with a 4.35 ERA in his career and 1-1. with a 5.87 ERA in 2025.  This is a tough spot for the White Sox, who return home from a 10-game road trip that concluded in Sacramento.  Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* Pistons/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +5.5

The Detroit Pistons easily could have swept the Knicks, but instead they are down 3-1.  Their last two losses came by a combined 3 points, and they were jobbed by the refs not calling a foul on a Tim Hardaway 3-pointer at the buzzer in Game 4.  He for sure would have made at least 2 of 3 free throws, and this series would be tied 2-2.  The other loss came in Game 1 after blowing an 8-point lead in the 4th quarter.

You could argue the Pistons have been the better team in this series.  They have a nice mix of youngsters and veterans, and I trust them to show up with a big effort in Game 5 tonight.  The Knicks keep having to make difficult, contested shots especially Towns and Brunson.  They also lack depth and both factors will catch up to them sooner rather than later.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on DBacks/Mets OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Diamondbacks and Mets tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center at Citi Field in New York.

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off in this series.  The Diamondbacks rank 3rd in the majors scoring 5.4 runs per game.  The Mets rank 9th scoring 4.7 runs per game.  The OVER is 5-0 in DBacks last five games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all five games.  The Mets scored 32 runs in their last series against the Nationals and have scored at least 4 runs in nine of their last 11 games overall.

Eduardo Rodriquez has allowed 14 earned runs in 28 1/3 innings in his five starts this season for a 4.40 ERA.  Rodriquez allowed 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his lone start against the Mets last season.  David Peterson is due some regression for the Mets tonight and it will hit him hard given the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Cubs/Pirates NL Central ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Cubs and Pirates tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left field in Pittsburgh.

The Cubs rank 1st in baseball scoring 5.9 runs per game this season.  The OVER is 16-4-1 in the last 21 meetings with 8 or more combined runs in 17 of those 21 meetings, and 9 or more combined runs in 16 of those.  

Imanaga and Heaney have been solid this season, but both are due some regression and it will likely hit them both given the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Phillies OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Nationals and Phillies tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 4.4 runs per game this season.  They are capable of more offensively.  The Nationals are scoring 4.2 runs per game but rank 27th in baseball allowing 5.2 runs per game with a dreadful staff.

MacKenzie Gore is due some regression with a 3.34 ERA in six starts this season.  Gore is 23-29 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his career.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 2/3 innings in his last road starts against the Phillies to fall to 0-3 with a 9.15 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in four career starts at Philadelphia.

Zack Wheeler hasn't exactly held the Nationals in check.  He has a 4.56 ERA in his last eight starts against them and a 4.44 ERA in 18 career home starts against the Nationals.  Both starters are getting too much respect tonight given the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Yankees/Orioles OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Yankees and Orioles tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center in Baltimore.

The Yankees rank 2nd in MLB scoring 5.5 runs per game this season.  The Orioles are scoring 4.0 runs per game and capable of much more.  But the Orioles rank 28th in baseball allowing 5.4 runs per game with a dreadful staff.

Carlos Rodon has allowed 13 earned runs and 4 homers in 30 2/3 innings this season.  Rodon has allowed 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 8 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles.

Kyle Gibson will be making his first start of the season for the Orioles and will be on a pitch count.  Gibson has a 4.52 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in his career.  He posted a 5.05 ERA in 31 starts in 2022, a 4.73 ERA in 33 starts in 2023 and a 4.24 ERA in 30 starts in 2024.  The 37-year old is washed up.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Marlins/Dodgers OVER 8.5

Temps will be in the 60's with light winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles tonight.  The Dodgers are heating up at the plate scoring 4.8 runs per game on the season and 6 runs or more in four of their last five games coming in with the OVER going 4-1 in those five games with 11 or more combined runs in four of them.  The only game that went under was a pitcher's duel between aces in Skenes and Yamamoto.

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 18-9 OVER in all games scoring 4.4 runs per game but ranking 29th in baseball allowing 5.6 runs per game.  The OVER is 12-3 in Marlins last 15 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 15 games.

Edward Cabrera went 4-8 with a 4.95 ERA in 20 starts for the Marlins last season.  He is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA in three starts for the Marlins this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 14 2/3 innings.  Cabrera hates facing the Dodgers, going 0-2 with a 15.30 ERA in three career starts against them, allowing 17 earned runs in 10 innings.  The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own.

Dustin May was due some regression after a very soft schedule to start the season.  Regression hit him hard in his last start, allowing 7 earned runs and 13 base runners in 5 innings to the Cubs.  I don't expect him to fully shut down the Marlins tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Rockets/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Houston +4

The Houston Rockets shot 39.1% from the field and 11-of-20 (5%) from the FT line in their Game 1 loss.  They bounced back to shoot 45.3% from the field and 16-of-20 (80%) from the FT line in Game 2 in a 109-94 blowout win.

The Rockets shot 39.5% from the field and 14-of-24 (58.3%) from the FT line in Game 3.  I expect them to have some positive shooting regression in Game 4 and bounce back from their Game 3 loss just as they did in Game 2 bouncing back from their Game 1 loss largely due to poor shooting.

The Warriors simply rely too much on Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler to do the bulk of their scoring.  Curry had a monster game with 36 points in Game 3 to put the Warriors on his back.  But he won't be as good in Game 4 as I expect the Rockets to make the proper adjustments to double-team him and make others beat them.  And even if Jimmy Butler plays he will be nowhere near 100%.

Jalen Green stepped up in Game 2 and scored 38 points on 13-of-25 shooting.  He was too passive in Game 3 going just 4-of-11 shooting for 9 points.  Look for him to be much more aggressive in Game 4 as he is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  And the Rockets are just the deeper team in general and elite defensively.  Bet the Rockets in Game 4 Monday.

15* AL Monday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Rangers OVER 9

Patrick Corbin has finished with a 5.20 ERA or higher while making at least 31 starts in each of his last four seasons with the Nationals.  He is legitimately one of the worst starters in baseball.  The Rangers took a chance on him last season and it's only a matter of time before he completely blows up again.  He's fortunate to have a 3.77 ERA considering he has a 1.54 WHIP in his three starts thus far for the Rangers.

JP Sears is 25-32 with a 4.29 ERA in 80 starts and six relief appearances in his career for the A's.  I like the fact that Sears just faced the Rangers on April 23rd in his last start, while Corbin just faced the A's on April 22nd in his last start.  The advantage always goes to the hitters getting to face these starting pitchers for a 2nd time in a week.  Corbin allowed 9 base runners and 2 homers in 5 innings in an 8-5 win over the A's on April 22nd.  Sears allowed 2 earned runs and a homer in 5 innings in his start against the Rangers.  Both should get shelled tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Reds OVER 9

Temps will be in the 70's with almost no wind as the ball should be flying out at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.  These are two underrated offenses with suspect pitching staffs.  The Reds rank 3rd in baseball scoring 5.4 runs per game.  The Cardinals rank 10th scoring 4.6 runs per game.

The Reds are scoring 7.7 runs per game in their last 10 games.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 16 games.  They should stay hot against Andre Pallante, who has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  Pallante allowed 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings in his last start against Cincinnati.

The Cardinals should feast on Nick Martinez, who is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in five starts for the Reds this season while allowing 16 earned runs and 4 homers in 26 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 15 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in his two home starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Yankees/Orioles AL East No-Brainer on OVER 9

Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to left field in Baltimore tonight to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket.  The Yankees rank 2nd in baseball scoring 5.5 runs per game.  The Orioles have been in a funk thus far offensively, but they can't be held down for long with all their talent.  More concerning is the Orioles ranking 28th in baseball allowing 5.4 runs per game.

Will Warren is 1-0 with a 4.79 ERA in five starts this season allowing 11 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings for the Yankees.  The Yankees have a taxed bullpen after playing a double-header with the Blue Jays on Sunday, and Warren's inability to go deep into games will be a problem for them today. He is averaging just over 4 innings per start.

Tomoyuki Sugano has been a bit of a disappointment for the Orioles this season allowing 6 homers in 28 innings with only 9 K's.  Pitching to contact does not work in MLB these days, and Sugano also fails to go deep into games averaging 5.1 innings per start.  The Orioles also played a double-header on Saturday and their bullpen is taxed.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.